Health Impacts of Climate Change in Pacific Island Countries: A Regional Assessment of Vulnerabilities and Adaptation Priorities

PubMed Central

McIver, Lachlan; Kim, Rokho; Woodward, Alistair; Hales, Simon; Spickett, Jeffery; Katscherian, Dianne; Hashizume, Masahiro; Honda, Yasushi; Kim, Ho; Iddings, Steven; Naicker, Jyotishma; Bambrick, Hilary; McMichael, Anthony J.; Ebi, Kristie L.

2015-01-01

Background: Between 2010 and 2012, the World Health Organization Division of Pacific Technical Support led a regional climate change and health vulnerability assessment and adaptation planning project, in collaboration with health sector partners, in 13 Pacific island countries—Cook Islands, Federated States of Micronesia, Fiji, Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Nauru, Niue, Palau, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tonga, Tuvalu, and Vanuatu. Objective: We assessed the vulnerabilities of Pacific island countries to the health impacts of climate change and planned adaptation strategies to minimize such threats to health. Methods: This assessment involved a combination of quantitative and qualitative techniques. The former included descriptive epidemiology, time series analyses, Poisson regression, and spatial modeling of climate and climate-sensitive disease data, in the few instances where this was possible; the latter included wide stakeholder consultations, iterative consensus building, and expert opinion. Vulnerabilities were ranked using a “likelihood versus impact” matrix, and adaptation strategies were prioritized and planned accordingly. Results: The highest-priority climate-sensitive health risks in Pacific island countries included trauma from extreme weather events, heat-related illnesses, compromised safety and security of water and food, vector-borne diseases, zoonoses, respiratory illnesses, psychosocial ill-health, non-communicable diseases, population pressures, and health system deficiencies. Adaptation strategies relating to these climate change and health risks could be clustered according to categories common to many countries in the Pacific region. Conclusion: Pacific island countries are among the most vulnerable in the world to the health impacts of climate change. This vulnerability is a function of their unique geographic, demographic, and socioeconomic characteristics combined with their exposure to changing weather patterns associated with climate

Livelihood Vulnerability Assessment Of Farmers and Nomads in Eastern Ecotone of Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, J.; Zhang, Y.

2011-12-01

Livelihood vulnerability assessment provides a scientific basis for anti-poverty of people and regional sustainable development in vulnerable area. Although there are massive discussions on concept of vulnerability, it is still difficult to make it quantitative and to carry out comprehensive appraise. Vulnerability assessments based on sustainable livelihood frame are widely accepted in case studies for attentions to vulnerable groups. However, these case studies are always on regional scale and never reflect how climate change affects people's livelihood and adaptive capability of people. It is necessary to seek vulnerable assessment index system and means based on livelihood process of local people. This paper develops a livelihood vulnerability assessment index system on the basis of sustainable livelihood framework and appraises livelihood vulnerability values of 11 townships, using data of 879 sample households. Livelihood vulnerability assessment index system reflects main risks, livelihood assets and adaptation strategies of local people and government. The results show that livelihood vulnerability level of plateau region is higher than that of mountain to plateau region and mountain gorge region. Manzhang Township in plateau region is the most vulnerable township and nomads there cannot cope with risks of climate change, meadow degeneration and herbs degradation. Upper part of mountain to plateau region and the whole plateau region have high livelihood vulnerability values and local nomads would not cope with risks if no measures are taken by government. The driving forces of livelihood vulnerability include strikes of risks and deficiency of livelihood assets and adaptive capability. Farmers and nomads in high mountain gorge region and lower part of mountain to plateau region can cope with these risks, meanwhile, there are more employment opportunities in second and tertiary industries are needed to help them realize livelihood diversification. Therefore

[Vulnerability of eco-economy in northern slope region of Tianshan Mountains].

PubMed

Wu, Jian-zhai; Li, Bo; Zhang, Xin-shi; Zhao, Wen-wu; Jiang, Guang-hui

2008-04-01

Based on the theoretical meaning of vulnerability, a vulnerability assessment of eco-econom in fifteen counties in the northern slope region of Tianshan Mountains was conducted. The ecosystem services change to land use was regarded as the impact, and based on the fourteen indices from resource holding, society development, and economy development statistic data, the adaptive ability was evaluated by using the methods of analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy synthetic evaluation. On the basis of assessment results of impact and adaptive capacity, the fifteen counties were divided into five classes under the assessment principles, and the district with higher-class number was of more vulnerability. The first class included Usu City and Changji City, the second class included Hutubi County, Miquan County, Fukang City, Jimsar County, Qitai County and Mori Kazak Autonomous County, the third class included Karamay City and Urumqi City, the fourth class included Kuitun City and Shawan County, and the fifth class included Jinghe County, Shihezi City and Manas County. The vulnerability reflected the level of eco-environment change and socioeconomic development, and the vulnerability assessment could be a good way to ensure the sustainable development. Aiming to decrease the vulnerability, various districts belonging to different class of vulnerability should establish relevant tactics according to the vulnerability factors to accelerate the region's sustainable development.

Ground-water vulnerability to nitrate contamination in the mid-atlantic region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Greene, Earl A.; LaMotte, Andrew E.; Cullinan, Kerri-Ann; Smith, Elizabeth R.

2005-01-01

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency?s (USEPA) Regional Vulnerability Assessment (ReVA) Program has developed a set of statistical tools to support regional-scale, integrated ecological risk-assessment studies. One of these tools, developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), is used with available water-quality data obtained from USGS National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) and other studies in association with land cover, geology, soils, and other geographic data to develop logistic-regression equations that predict the vulnerability of ground water to nitrate concentrations exceeding specified thresholds in the Mid-Atlantic Region. The models were developed and applied to produce spatial probability maps showing the likelihood of elevated concentrations of nitrate in the region. These maps can be used to identify areas that currently are at risk and help identify areas where ground water has been affected by human activities. This information can be used by regional and local water managers to protect water supplies and identify land-use planning solutions and monitoring programs in these vulnerable areas.

Mountain torrents: Quantifying vulnerability and assessing uncertainties

PubMed Central

Totschnig, Reinhold; Fuchs, Sven

2013-01-01

Vulnerability assessment for elements at risk is an important component in the framework of risk assessment. The vulnerability of buildings affected by torrent processes can be quantified by vulnerability functions that express a mathematical relationship between the degree of loss of individual elements at risk and the intensity of the impacting process. Based on data from the Austrian Alps, we extended a vulnerability curve for residential buildings affected by fluvial sediment transport processes to other torrent processes and other building types. With respect to this goal to merge different data based on different processes and building types, several statistical tests were conducted. The calculation of vulnerability functions was based on a nonlinear regression approach applying cumulative distribution functions. The results suggest that there is no need to distinguish between different sediment-laden torrent processes when assessing vulnerability of residential buildings towards torrent processes. The final vulnerability functions were further validated with data from the Italian Alps and different vulnerability functions presented in the literature. This comparison showed the wider applicability of the derived vulnerability functions. The uncertainty inherent to regression functions was quantified by the calculation of confidence bands. The derived vulnerability functions may be applied within the framework of risk management for mountain hazards within the European Alps. The method is transferable to other mountain regions if the input data needed are available. PMID:27087696

APPLICATION OF THE REGIONAL VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT (REVA) INTEGRATION TOOL AND UNDERLYING METHODS FOR MULTI-SCALE DECISION MAKING

EPA Science Inventory

In support of the National Science and Technology Council's cross-Agency priority of Integrated Science for Ecological Challenges (ISEC) EPA is conducting research to improve capabilities in the area of regional vulnerability assessment and ecological forecasting. EPA's research...

Northeast and Midwest regional species and habitats at greatest risk and most vulnerable to climate impacts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Staudinger, Michelle D.; Hilberg, Laura; Janowiak, Maria; Swanton, C.O.

2016-01-01

The objectives of this Chapter are to describe climate change vulnerability, it’s components, the range of assessment methods being implemented regionally, and examples of training resources and tools. Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments (CCVAs) have already been conducted for numerous Regional Species of Greatest Conservation Need and their dependent 5 habitats across the Northeast and Midwest. This chapter provides a synthesis of different assessment frameworks, information on the locations (e.g., States) where vulnerability assessments were conducted, lists of individual species and habitats with their respective vulnerability rankings, and a comparison of how vulnerability rankings were determined among studies.

Mapping Regional Drought Vulnerability: a Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karamouz, M.; Zeynolabedin, A.; Olyaei, M. A.

2015-12-01

Drought is among the natural disaster that causes damages and affects many people's life in many part of the world including in Iran. Recently, some factors such as climate variability and the impact of climate change have influenced drought frequency and intensity in many parts of the world. Drought can be divided into four categories of meteorological, hydrological, agricultural and social-economic. In meteorological the important feature is lack of rainfall. In hydrological drought river flows and dam storage are considered. Lack of soil moisture is the key factor in agricultural droughts while in social-economic type of drought the relation between supply and demand and social-economic damages due to water deficiency is studied. While the first three types relates to the lack of some hydrological characteristics, social-economic type of drought is actually the consequence of other types expressed in monetary values. Many indices are used in assessing drought; each has its own advantages and disadvantages and can be used for specific types of drought. Therefore knowing the types of drought can provide a better understanding of shortages and their characteristics. Drought vulnerability is a concept which shows the likelihood of damages from hazard in a particular place by focusing on the system status prior to the disaster. Drought vulnerability has been viewed as a potential for losses in the region due to water deficiency at the time of drought. In this study the application of vulnerability concept in drought management in East Azarbaijan province in Iran is investigated by providing vulnerability maps which demonstrates spatial characteristics of drought vulnerability. In the first step, certain governing parameters in drought analysis such as precipitation, temperature, land use, topography, solar radiation and ground water elevation have been investigated in the region. They are described in details and calculated in suitable time series. Vulnerabilities

An interdisciplinary assessment of regional-scale nonpoint source ground-water vulnerability; theory and application

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bernknopf, Richard L.; Dinitz, Laura B.; Loague, Keith

2001-01-01

An integrated earth science-economics model, developed within a geographic information system (GIS), combines a regional-scale nonpoint source vulnerability assessment with a specific remediation measure to avoid unnecessary agricultural production costs associated with the use of agrochemicals in the Pearl Harbor basin on the island of Oahu, Hawaii. This approach forms the core of a risk-based regulation for the application of agrochemicals and estimates the benefits of an information-based approach to decisionmaking.

Multi-dimensional flood vulnerability assessment using data envelopment analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zahid, Zalina; Saharizan, Nurul Syuhada; Hamzah, Paezah; Hussin, Siti Aida Sheikh; Khairi, Siti Shaliza Mohd

2017-11-01

Malaysia has been greatly impacted by flood during monsoon seasons. Even though flood prone areas are well identified, assessment on the vulnerability of the disaster is lacking. Assessment of flood vulnerability, defined as the potential for loss when a disaster occurs, is addressed in this paper. The focus is on the development of flood vulnerability measurement in 11 states in Peninsular Malaysia using a non-parametric approach of Data Envelopment Analysis. Scores for three dimensions of flood vulnerability (Population Vulnerability, Social Vulnerability and Biophysical) were calculated using secondary data of selected input and output variables across an 11-year period from 2004 to 2014. The results showed that Johor and Pahang were the most vulnerable to flood in terms of Population Vulnerability, followed by Kelantan, the most vulnerable to flood in terms of Social Vulnerability and Kedah, Pahang and Terengganu were the most vulnerable to flood in terms of Biophysical Vulnerability among the eleven states. The results also showed that the state of Johor, Pahang and Kelantan to be most vulnerable across the three dimensions. Flood vulnerability assessment is important as it provides invaluable information that will allow the authority to identify and develop plans for flood mitigation and to reduce the vulnerability of flood at the affected regions.

Representative Agricultural Pathways and Scenarios for Regional Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability, and Adaptation. 5; Chapter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Valdivia, Roberto O.; Antle, John M.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Ruane, Alexander C.; Vervoort, Joost; Ashfaq, Muhammad; Hathie, Ibrahima; Tui, Sabine Homann-Kee; Mulwa, Richard; Nhemachena, Charles;

Assessing Climate Vulnerabilities of Food Distribution Center Sites in Greater Boston and Their Regional Implications: Climate Adaptation Planning in Practice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teferra, A.; Watson, C.; Douglas, E. M.

2016-12-01

The Metro Boston region, an area whose civic leaders have been at the forefront of climate resilience initiatives in recent years, is finalizing a flood vulnerability assessment of food distribution center sites located north of Boston, with the support of the University of Massachusetts Boston and the American Geophysical Union's Thriving Earth Exchange program. The community-scientist collaboration emerged because of the need for more local analyses of the area to inform climate resiliency policy and planning actions for the region. A significant amount of the metro region's food supply passes through two major distribution centers in the cities of Everett and Chelsea, just north of the Mystic River. The Metropolitan Area Planning Council (MAPC), on behalf of the Metro Boston Climate Preparedness Taskforce, is working with Chris Watson and Ellen Douglas of UMass Boston to build on existing analyses of the region's food system and climate vulnerabilities and to develop a report identifying flood risk exposure to the sites. The analysis brings in dynamic modeling techniques that incorporate storm surge and sea level rise projections under different climate scenarios, and aims to align methodologies with those of other regional analyses, such as Climate Ready Boston and the City of Cambridge's Vulnerability Assessment. The study is helping to inform MAPC's and the Metro Boston Climate Preparedness Taskforce's understanding of this critical food distribution infrastructure, illustrate the larger regional implications of climate impacts on food distribution in the Greater Boston area, and guide the development of site-specific strategies for addressing identified vulnerabilities.

Assessing European wild fire vulnerability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oehler, F.; Oliveira, S.; Barredo, J. I.; Camia, A.; Ayanz, J. San Miguel; Pettenella, D.; Mavsar, R.

2012-04-01

Wild fire vulnerability is a measure of potential socio-economic damage caused by a fire in a specific area. As such it is an important component of long-term fire risk management, helping policy-makers take informed decisions about adequate expenditures for fire prevention and suppression, and to target those regions at highest risk. This paper presents a first approach to assess wild fire vulnerability at the European level. A conservative approach was chosen that assesses the cost of restoring the previous land cover after a potential fire. Based on the CORINE Land Cover, a restoration cost was established for each land cover class at country level, and an average restoration time was assigned according to the recovery capacity of the land cover. The damage caused by fire was then assessed by discounting the cost of restoring the previous land cover over the restoration period. Three different vulnerability scenarios were considered assuming low, medium and high fire severity causing different levels of damage. Over Europe, the potential damage of wild land fires ranges from 10 - 13, 732 Euro*ha-1*yr-1 for low fire severity, 32 - 45,772 Euro*ha-1*yr-1 for medium fire severity and 54 - 77,812 Euro*ha-1*yr-1 for high fire severity. The least vulnerable are natural grasslands, moors and heathland and sclerophyllous vegetation, while the highest cost occurs for restoring broad-leaved forest. Preliminary validation comparing these estimates with official damage assessments for past fires shows reasonable results. The restoration cost approach allows for a straightforward, data extensive assessment of fire vulnerability at European level. A disadvantage is the inherent simplification of the evaluation procedure with the underestimation of non-markets goods and services. Thus, a second approach has been developed, valuing individual wild land goods and services and assessing their annual flow which is lost for a certain period of time in case of a fire event. However

Assessment of groundwater vulnerability in the coastal region of Oman using DRASTIC index method in GIS environment.

PubMed

Jamrah, Ahmad; Al-Futaisi, Ahmed; Rajmohan, Natarajan; Al-Yaroubi, Saif

2008-12-01

A study was carried out to develop a vulnerability map for Barka region in the North Batina of Oman using DRASTIC vulnerability index method in GIS environment. DRASTIC layers were created using data from published reports and the seven DRASTIC layers were processed by the ArcGIS geographic information system. Finally, DRASTIC maps were created for 1995 and 2004 to understand the long-term changes in the vulnerability index. DRASTIC vulnerability maps were evaluated using groundwater quality data such as chemical and biological parameters. DRASTIC vulnerability maps of 1995 and 2004 indicate that the northern part of Barka is more vulnerable to pollution than southern part and the central part of Barka also shows high relative vulnerability which is mostly related to the high conductivity values. Moreover, the changes in water level due to high abstraction rate of groundwater reflect in the vulnerability maps and low vulnerability area is increased in the southern part during 2004 compared to 1995. Moreover, regional distribution maps of nitrate, chloride and total and fecal coliforms are well correlated with DRASTIC vulnerability maps. In contrast to this, even though DRASTIC method predicted the central part of the study region is highly vulnerable, both chemical and biological parameters show lower concentrations in this region compared to coastal belt, which is mainly due to agricultural and urban development. In Barka, urban development and agricultural activities are very high in coastal region compared to southern and central part of the study area. Hence, this study concluded that DRASTIC method is also applicable in coastal region having ubiquitous contamination sources.

Fuzzy decision analysis for integrated environmental vulnerability assessment of the mid-Atlantic Region.

PubMed

Tran, Liem T; Knight, C Gregory; O'Neill, Robert V; Smith, Elizabeth R; Riitters, Kurt H; Wickham, James

2002-06-01

A fuzzy decision analysis method for integrating ecological indicators was developed. This was a combination of a fuzzy ranking method and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The method was capable of ranking ecosystems in terms of environmental conditions and suggesting cumulative impacts across a large region. Using data on land cover, population, roads, streams, air pollution, and topography of the Mid-Atlantic region, we were able to point out areas that were in relatively poor condition and/or vulnerable to future deterioration. The method offered an easy and comprehensive way to combine the strengths of fuzzy set theory and the AHP for ecological assessment. Furthermore, the suggested method can serve as a building block for the evaluation of environmental policies.

Social vulnerability assessment: a growing practice in Europe?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tapsell, S.; McC arthy, S.

2012-04-01

This paper builds upon work on social vulnerability from the CapHaz-Net consortium, an ongoing research project funded by the European Commission in its 7th Framework Programme. The project focuses on the social dimensions of natural hazards, as well as on regional practices of risk prevention and management, and aims at improving the resilience of European societies to natural hazards, paying particular attention to social capacity building. The topic of social vulnerability is one of seven themes being addressed in the project. There are various rationales for examining the relevance of social vulnerability to natural hazards. Vulnerability assessment has now been accepted as a requirement for the effective development of emergency management capability, and assessment of social vulnerability has been recognised as being integral to understanding the risk to natural hazards. The aim of our research was to examine social vulnerability, how it might be understood in the context of natural hazards in Europe, and how social vulnerability can be addressed to increase social capacity. The work comprised a review of research on social vulnerability to different natural hazards within Europe and included concepts and definitions of social vulnerability (and related concepts), the purpose of vulnerability assessment and who decides who is vulnerable, different approaches to assessing or measuring social vulnerability (such as the use of 'classical' quantitative vulnerability indicators and qualitative community-based approaches, along with the advantages and disadvantages of both), conceptual frameworks for assessing social vulnerability and three case studies of social vulnerability studies within Europe: flash floods in the Italian Alps, fluvial flooding in Germany and heat waves in Spain. The review reveals variable application of social vulnerability analysis across Europe and there are indications why this might be the case. Reasons could range from the scale of

Vulnerability assessment of atmospheric environment driven by human impacts.

PubMed

Zhang, Yang; Shen, Jing; Ding, Feng; Li, Yu; He, Li

2016-11-15

Atmospheric environment quality worsening is a substantial threat to public health worldwide, and in many places, air pollution due to the intensification of the human activity is increasing dramatically. However, no studies have been investigated the integration of vulnerability assessment and atmospheric environment driven by human impacts. The objective of this study was to identify and prioritize the undesirable environmental changes as an early warning system for environment managers and decision makers in term of human, atmospheric environment, and social economic elements. We conduct a vulnerability assessment method of atmospheric environment associated with human impact, this method integrates spatial context of Geographic Information System (GIS) tool, multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) method, ordered weighted averaging (OWA) operators under the Exposure-Sensitivity- Adaptive Capacity (ESA) framework. Decision makers can find out relevant vulnerability assessment results with different vulnerable attitudes. In the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region, China, we further applied this developed method and proved it to be reliable and consistent with the China Environmental Status Bulletin. Results indicate that the vulnerability of atmospheric environment in the BTH region is not optimistic, and environment managers should do more about air pollution. Thus, the most appropriate strategic decision and development program of city or state can be picked out assisting by the vulnerable results. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An atmospheric vulnerability assessment framework for environment management and protection based on CAMx.

PubMed

Zhang, Yang; Shen, Jing; Li, Yu

2018-02-01

This paper presents an atmospheric vulnerability assessment framework based on CAMx that should be helpful to assess potential impacts of changes in human, atmospheric environment, and social economic elements of atmospheric vulnerability. It is also a useful and effective tool that can provide policy-guidance for environmental protection and management to reduce the atmospheric vulnerability. The developed framework was applied to evaluate the atmospheric environment vulnerability of 13 cities in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region for verification. The results indicated that regional disparity of the atmospheric vulnerability existed in the study site. More specifically, the central and southern regions show more atmospheric environment vulnerability than the northern regions. The impact factors of atmospheric environment vulnerability in the BTH region mainly derived from increasing population press, frequently unfavorable meteorological conditions, extensive economic growth of secondary industry, increased environmental pollution, and accelerating population aging. The framework shown in this paper is an interpretative and heuristic tool for a better understanding of atmospheric vulnerability. This framework can also be replicated at different spatial and temporal scales using context-specific datasets to straightly support environmental managers with decision-making. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Water resources vulnerability assessment in the Adriatic Sea region: the case of Corfu Island.

PubMed

Kanakoudis, Vasilis; Tsitsifli, Stavroula; Papadopoulou, Anastasia; Cencur Curk, Barbara; Karleusa, Barbara

2017-09-01

Cross-border water resources management and protection is a complicated task to achieve, lacking a common methodological framework. Especially in the Adriatic region, water used for drinking water supply purposes pass from many different countries, turning its management into a hard task to achieve. During the DRINKADRIA project, a common methodological framework has been developed, for efficient and effective cross-border water supply and resources management, taking into consideration different resources types (surface and groundwater) emphasizing in drinking water supply intake. The common methodology for water resources management is based on four pillars: climate characteristics and climate change, water resources availability, quality, and security. The present paper assesses both present and future vulnerability of water resources in the Adriatic region, with special focus on Corfu Island, Greece. The results showed that climate change is expected to impact negatively on water resources availability while at the same time, water demand is expected to increase. Water quality problems will be intensified especially due to land use changes and salt water intrusion. The analysis identified areas where water resources are more vulnerable, allowing decision makers develop management strategies.

COORDINATING, COMMUNICATING AND PERFORMING COMPLEX RESEARCH THAT IDENTIFIES VULNERABLE STREAM ECOSYSTEM IN THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION

EPA Science Inventory

The USEPA's Regional Vulnerability Assessment (ReVA) program was created to advance the scientific basis for protecting vulnerable ecosystems at a regional scale. As a first step, the ReVa program will coordinate, communicate and perform complex research that will identify vulner...

REGIONAL SCALE COMPARATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

Regional Vulnerability Assessment (ReVA) is an approach to regional-scale ecological risk assessment that is currently under development by EPA's Office of Research and Development. The pilot assessment will be done for the mid-Atlantic region and builds on data collected for th...

Assessment of coastal vulnerability to climate change hazards at the regional scale: the case study of the North Adriatic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Torresan, S.; Critto, A.; Rizzi, J.; Marcomini, A.

2012-07-01

Sea level rise, changes in storms and wave climate as a consequence of global climate change are expected to increase the size and magnitude of flooded and eroding coastal areas, thus having profound impacts on coastal communities and ecosystems. River deltas, beaches, estuaries and lagoons are considered particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change, which should be studied at the regional/local scale. This paper presents a regional vulnerability assessment (RVA) methodology developed to analyse site-specific spatial information on coastal vulnerability to the envisaged effects of global climate change, and assist coastal communities in operational coastal management and conservation. The main aim of the RVA is to identify key vulnerable receptors (i.e. natural and human ecosystems) in the considered region and localize vulnerable hot spot areas, which could be considered as homogeneous geographic sites for the definition of adaptation strategies. The application of the RVA methodology is based on a heterogeneous subset of bio-geophysical and socio-economic vulnerability indicators (e.g. coastal topography, geomorphology, presence and distribution of vegetation cover, location of artificial protection), which are a measure of the potential harm from a range of climate-related impacts (e.g. sea level rise inundation, storm surge flooding, coastal erosion). Based on a system of numerical weights and scores, the RVA provides relative vulnerability maps that allow to prioritize more vulnerable areas and targets of different climate-related impacts in the examined region and to support the identification of suitable areas for human settlements, infrastructures and economic activities, providing a basis for coastal zoning and land use planning. The implementation, performance and results of the methodology for the coastal area of the North Adriatic Sea (Italy) are fully described in the paper.

Assessing Natural Hazard Vulnerability Through Marmara Region Using GIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sabuncu, A.; Garagon Dogru, A.; Ozener, H.

2013-12-01

Natural hazards are natural phenomenon occured in the Earth's system that include geological and meteorological events such as earthquakes, floods, landslides, droughts, fires and tsunamis. The metropolitan cities are vulnerable to natural hazards due to their population densities, industrial facilities and proporties. The urban layout of the megacities are complex since industrial facilities are interference with residential area. The Marmara region is placed in North-western Turkey suffered from natural hazards (earthquakes, floods etc.) for years. After 1999 Kocaeli and Duzce earthquakes and 2009 Istanbul flash floods, dramatic number of casualities and economic losses were reported by the authorities. Geographic information systems (GIS) have substantial capacity in order to develop natural disaster management. As these systems provide more efficient and reliable analysis and evaluation of the data in the management, and also convenient and better solutions for the decision making before during and after the natural hazards. The Earth science data and socio-economic data can be integrated into a GIS as different layers. Additionally, satellite data are used to understand the changes pre and post the natural hazards. GIS is a powerful software for the combination of different type of digital data. A natural hazard database for the Marmara region provides all different types of digital data to the users. All proper data collection processing and analysing are critical to evaluate and identify hazards. The natural hazard database allows users to monitor, analyze and query past and recent disasters in the Marmara Region. The long term aim of this study is to develop geodatabase and identify the natural hazard vulnerabilities of the metropolitan cities.

Groundwater vulnerability assessment in karstic aquifers using COP method.

PubMed

Bagherzadeh, Somayeh; Kalantari, Nasrollah; Nobandegani, Amir Fadaei; Derakhshan, Zahra; Conti, Gea Oliveri; Ferrante, Margherita; Malekahmadi, Roya

2018-05-02

Access to safe and reliable drinking water is amongst the important indicators of development in each society, and water scarcity is one of the challenges and limitations affecting development at national and regional levels and social life and economic activity areas. Generally, there are two types of drinking water sources: the first type is surface waters, including lakes, rivers, and streams and the second type is groundwaters existing in aquifers. Amongst aquifers, karst aquifers play an important role in supplying water sources of the world. Therefore, protecting these aquifers from pollution sources is of paramount importance. COP method is amongst the methods to investigate the intrinsic vulnerability of this type of aquifers, so that areas susceptible to contamination can be determined before being contaminated and these sources can be protected. In the present study, COP method was employed in order to spot the regions that are prone to contamination in the region. This method uses the properties of overlying geological layers above the water table (O factor), the concentration of flow (C factor), and precipitation (P factor) over the aquifer, as the parameters to assess the intrinsic vulnerability of groundwater resources. In this regard, geographical information system (GIS) and remote sensing (RS) were utilized to prepare the mentioned factors and the intrinsic vulnerability map was obtained. The results of COP method indicated that the northwest and the west of the region are highly and very vulnerable. This study indicated that regions with low vulnerability were observed in eastern areas, which accounted for 15.6% of the area. Moderate vulnerability was 40% and related to the northeast and southeast of the area. High vulnerability was 38.2% and related to western and southwestern regions. Very high vulnerability was 6.2% and related to the northwest of the area. By means of the analysis of sensitivity of the model, it was determined that the focus

Assessing groundwater vulnerability to agrichemical contamination in the Midwest US

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burkart, M.R.; Kolpin, D.W.; James, D.E.

1999-01-01

Agrichemicals (herbicides and nitrate) are significant sources of diffuse pollution to groundwater. Indirect methods are needed to assess the potential for groundwater contamination by diffuse sources because groundwater monitoring is too costly to adequately define the geographic extent of contamination at a regional or national scale. This paper presents examples of the application of statistical, overlay and index, and process-based modeling methods for groundwater vulnerability assessments to a variety of data from the Midwest U.S. The principles for vulnerability assessment include both intrinsic (pedologic, climatologic, and hydrogeologic factors) and specific (contaminant and other anthropogenic factors) vulnerability of a location. Statistical methods use the frequency of contaminant occurrence, contaminant concentration, or contamination probability as a response variable. Statistical assessments are useful for defining the relations among explanatory and response variables whether they define intrinsic or specific vulnerability. Multivariate statistical analyses are useful for ranking variables critical to estimating water quality responses of interest. Overlay and index methods involve intersecting maps of intrinsic and specific vulnerability properties and indexing the variables by applying appropriate weights. Deterministic models use process-based equations to simulate contaminant transport and are distinguished from the other methods in their potential to predict contaminant transport in both space and time. An example of a one-dimensional leaching model linked to a geographic information system (GIS) to define a regional metamodel for contamination in the Midwest is included.

Seaside, Oregon, Tsunami Vulnerability Assessment Pilot Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dunbar, P. K.; Dominey-Howes, D.; Varner, J.

2006-12-01

The results of a pilot study to assess the risk from tsunamis for the Seaside-Gearhart, Oregon region will be presented. To determine the risk from tsunamis, it is first necessary to establish the hazard or probability that a tsunami of a particular magnitude will occur within a certain period of time. Tsunami inundation maps that provide 100-year and 500-year probabilistic tsunami wave height contours for the Seaside-Gearhart, Oregon, region were developed as part of an interagency Tsunami Pilot Study(1). These maps provided the probability of the tsunami hazard. The next step in determining risk is to determine the vulnerability or degree of loss resulting from the occurrence of tsunamis due to exposure and fragility. The tsunami vulnerability assessment methodology used in this study was developed by M. Papathoma and others(2). This model incorporates multiple factors (e.g. parameters related to the natural and built environments and socio-demographics) that contribute to tsunami vulnerability. Data provided with FEMA's HAZUS loss estimation software and Clatsop County, Oregon, tax assessment data were used as input to the model. The results, presented within a geographic information system, reveal the percentage of buildings in need of reinforcement and the population density in different inundation depth zones. These results can be used for tsunami mitigation, local planning, and for determining post-tsunami disaster response by emergency services. (1)Tsunami Pilot Study Working Group, Seaside, Oregon Tsunami Pilot Study--Modernization of FEMA Flood Hazard Maps, Joint NOAA/USGS/FEMA Special Report, U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Geological Survey, U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency, 2006, Final Draft. (2)Papathoma, M., D. Dominey-Howes, D.,Y. Zong, D. Smith, Assessing Tsunami Vulnerability, an example from Herakleio, Crete, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 3, 2003, p. 377-389.

Deriving vulnerability indicators for crop production regions in Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perdinan; Atmaja, Tri; Sehabuddin, Ujang; Sugiarto, Yon; Febrianti, Lina; Farysca Adi, Ryco

2017-01-01

Food supply is considered as one of the most vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Higher temperature and changes in rainfall patterns and intensity may adversely impact crop production, which will eventually affect the food supply. Consequently, adaptation strategies should be devised to minimize the potential adverse impacts and maximize its potential benefits. The adaptation strategies should be devised by considering factors contributed to causing vulnerability following the concept of food supply chain, starting from production to consumption. This study focuses on identifying the contributed factors to vulnerability of crop production regions in Indonesia. The contributed factors were identified by defining indicators for each component of the food supply chain using an example of crop production centers in Indonesia, the West Java Province. The identification considers existing issues of the food supply chain, covering aspects of production, post-harvest and storage, distribution, and consumption, based on the field surveys conducted in Indramayu district of the West Java, the main grower of paddy production, and Garut district of the West Java, the main grower of corn production. The selection of the vulnerability indicators was also considered the data availability for the study area. The analysis proposed a list of indicators classified into production, post-harvest and storage, distribution and consumption that are proposed to assess the regional vulnerability of crop production regions in Indonesia. This result is expected to contribute in understanding the process of devising climate change adaptation intended for enhancing food supply resilience to climate change.

Index based regional vulnerability assessment to cyclones hazards of coastal area of Bangladesh

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohammad, Q. A.; Kervyn, M.; Khan, A. U.

2016-12-01

Cyclone, storm surge, coastal flooding, salinity intrusion, tornado, nor'wester, and thunderstorms are the listed natural hazards in the coastal areas of Bangladesh. Bangladesh was hit by devastating cyclones in 1970, 1991, 2007, 2009, and 2016. Intensity and frequency of natural hazards in the coastal area are likely to increase in future due to climate change. Risk assessment is one of the most important steps of disaster risk reduction. As a climate change victim nation, Bangladesh claims compensation from green climate fund. It also created its own climate funds. It is therefore very important to assess vulnerability of the coast of Bangladesh to natural hazards for efficient allocation of financial investment to support the national risk reduction. This study aims at identifying the spatial variations in factors contributing to vulnerability of the coastal inhabitants of Bangladesh to natural hazards. An exploratory factor analysis method has been used to assess the vulnerability at each local administrative unit. The 141 initially selected 141 socio-economic indicators were reduced to 41 by converting some of them to meaningful widely accepted indicators and removing highly correlated indicators. Principle component analysis further reduced 41 indicators to 13 dimensions which explained 79% of total variation. PCA dimensions show three types of characteristics of the people that may lead people towards vulnerability. They are (a) demographic, education and job opportunities, (b) access to basic needs and facilities, and (c) special needs people. Vulnerability maps of the study area has been prepared by weighted overlay of the dimensions. Study revealed that 29 and 8 percent of total coastal area are very high and high vulnerable to natural hazards respectively. These are distributed along sea boundary and major rivers. Comparison of this spatial distribution with the capacities to face disaster show that highly vulnerable areas are well covered by cyclone

Forest climate change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment in Himalayas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chitale, V. S.; Shrestha, H. L.; Agarwal, N. K.; Choudhurya, D.; Gilani, H.; Dhonju, H. K.; Murthy, M. S. R.

2014-11-01

Forests offer an important basis for creating and safeguarding more climate-resilient communities over Hindu Kush Himalayan region. The forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment to climate change and developing knowledge base to identify and support relevant adaptation strategies is realized as an urgent need. The multi scale adaptation strategies portray increasing complexity with the increasing levels in terms of data requirements, vulnerability understanding and decision making to choose a particular adaptation strategy. We present here how such complexities could be addressed and adaptation decisions could be either directly supported by open source remote sensing based forestry products or geospatial analysis and modelled products. The forest vulnerability assessment under climate change scenario coupled with increasing forest social dependence was studied using IPCC Landscape scale Vulnerability framework in Chitwan-Annapurna Landscape (CHAL) situated in Nepal. Around twenty layers of geospatial information on climate, forest biophysical and forest social dependence data was used to assess forest vulnerability and associated adaptation needs using self-learning decision tree based approaches. The increase in forest fires, evapotranspiration and reduction in productivity over changing climate scenario was observed. The adaptation measures on enhancing productivity, improving resilience, reducing or avoiding pressure with spatial specificity are identified to support suitable decision making. The study provides spatial analytical framework to evaluate multitude of parameters to understand vulnerabilities and assess scope for alternative adaptation strategies with spatial explicitness.

A Preliminary Tsunami Vulnerability Analysis for Yenikapi Region in Istanbul

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ceren Cankaya, Zeynep; Suzen, Lutfi; Cevdet Yalciner, Ahmet; Kolat, Cagil; Aytore, Betul; Zaytsev, Andrey

2015-04-01

One of the main requirements during post disaster recovery operations is to maintain proper transportation and fluent communication at the disaster areas. Ports and harbors are the main transportation hubs which must work with proper performance at all times especially after the disasters. Resilience of coastal utilities after earthquakes and tsunamis have major importance for efficient and proper rescue and recovery operations soon after the disasters. Istanbul is a mega city with its various coastal utilities located at the north coast of the Sea of Marmara. At Yenikapi region of Istanbul, there are critical coastal utilities and vulnerable coastal structures and critical activities occur daily. Fishery ports, commercial ports, small craft harbors, passenger terminals of intercity maritime transportation, water front commercial and/or recreational structures are some of the examples of coastal utilization which are vulnerable against marine disasters. Therefore their vulnerability under tsunami or any other marine hazard to Yenikapi region of Istanbul is an important issue. In this study, a methodology of vulnerability analysis under tsunami attack is proposed with the applications to Yenikapi region. In the study, high resolution (1m) GIS database of Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (IMM) is used and analyzed by using GIS implementation. The bathymetry and topography database and the vector dataset containing all buildings/structures/infrastructures in the study area are obtained for tsunami numerical modeling for the study area. GIS based tsunami vulnerability assessment is conducted by applying the Multi-criteria Decision Making Analysis (MCDA). The tsunami parameters from deterministically defined worst case scenarios are computed from the simulations using tsunami numerical model NAMI DANCE. The vulnerability parameters in the region due to two different classifications i) vulnerability of buildings/structures and ii) vulnerability of (human) evacuation

A synthesized biophysical and social vulnerability assessment for Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Yung-Jaan

2017-11-01

Taiwan, located in the Western Pacific, is a country that is one of the most vulnerable to disasters that are associated with the changing climate; it is located within the Ring of Fire, which is the most geologically active region in the world. The environmental and geological conditions in Taiwan are sensitive and vulnerable to such disasters. Owing to increasing urbanization in Taiwan, floods and climate-related disasters have taken an increasing toll on human lives. As global warming accelerates the rising of sea levels and increasing of the frequency of extreme weather events, disasters will continue to affect socioeconomic development and human conditions. Under such circumstances, researchers and policymakers alike must recognize the importance of providing useful knowledge concerning vulnerability, disaster recovery and resilience. Strategies for reducing vulnerability and climate-related disaster risks and for increasing resilience involve preparedness, mitigation and adaptation. In the last two decades, extreme climate events have caused severe flash floods, debris flows, landslides, and other disasters and have had negative effects of many sectors, including agriculture, infrastructure and health. Since climate change is expected to have a continued impact on socio-economic development, this work develops a vulnerability assessment framework that integrates both biophysical and social vulnerability and supports synthesized vulnerability analyses to identify vulnerable areas in Taiwan. Owing to its geographical, geological and climatic features, Taiwan is susceptible to earthquakes, typhoons, droughts and various induced disasters. Therefore, Taiwan has the urgent task of establishing a framework for assessing vulnerability as a planning and policy tool that can be used to identify not only the regions that require special attention but also hotspots in which efforts should be made to reduce vulnerability and the risk of climate-related disaster. To

Tuberculosis in vulnerable populations in Eastern Mediterranean Region-Implications for control.

PubMed

Shakoor, Sadia; Hasan, Rumina

2016-12-01

Socially and economically disadvantaged or "vulnerable" people are at high risk of tuberculosis (TB) and also contribute to active chains of TB transmission. Included in such vulnerable populations are children, women, prisoners, people living with human immunodeficiency virus, the homeless, and displaced people. The ongoing active transmission of TB among such populations is made more difficult to assess and control by difficult access, health inequities, poverty, and other chronic and debilitating health conditions at individual, domestic, and community levels. The 22 Eastern Mediterranean Region member states encompass diverse sociopolitical and socioeconomic situations with far-reaching effects on vulnerable populations in each country, thereby threatening the control of TB. Here, we examined the impact of these populations on the incidence and transmission of TB in light of these risks. Approximately 60% of the regional population comprises children and adolescents ⩽19years of age, increasing the population at risk. Additionally, up to 11% of the population suffers from mental- or substance-abuse disorders, while >50% of the world refugee populations live in the Eastern Mediterranean Region. TB control requires a strategic approach at the country level to access these vulnerable populations. Copyright © 2016.

Assessing Hydro-Ecological Vulnerability from Space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stampoulis, D.; Andreadis, K.; Granger, S. L.; Fisher, J. B.; Turk, F. J.; Behrangi, A.; Das, N. N.; Ines, A.

2015-12-01

The main driver of economic growth in East Africa is agriculture. However, climate change and the resulting intensification of the hydrologic cycle will increase water limitation in this already drought-burdened region, and the challenge of ensuring food security is bound to become critical. Efforts must, therefore, be made to develop appropriate adaptation strategies for agriculture in such regions. Assessing and predicting ecosystem responses to global environmental change can advance management and decision support systems that would improve food security and economic development. The current study uses a plethora of multi-year remote sensing earth observations to study the hydro-ecological vulnerability of the various ecosystems in the water-stressed East African region to droughts. More specifically, we assess the hydrologic sensitivity and resilience of soil moisture and vegetation water content (derived from NRL's WindSat radiometer), during dry spells, for different dry-period durations, and for various vegetation categories. Spatiotemporal patterns and characteristics of the response of the two aforementioned variables to sustained precipitation deficits (derived from TRMM 3B42 V7), as well as their persistence in maintaining their stability are identified. We also assess changes, in space and time, in the normalized radar surface-backscattering cross-sections from NASA's QuikSCAT Scatterometer, to obtain information on the vegetation regimes, as well as changes in vegetation phenometrics using the enhanced vegetation index (EVI) derived from MODIS. Quantifying the response and characterizing the resilience of the two aforementioned major hydrological attributes using various remote sensing techniques that complement each other, can provide critical insight into the region's vulnerability and adaptive capacity with respect to rainfall variability.

Infrastructure Vulnerability Assessment Model (I-VAM).

PubMed

Ezell, Barry Charles

2007-06-01

Quantifying vulnerability to critical infrastructure has not been adequately addressed in the literature. Thus, the purpose of this article is to present a model that quantifies vulnerability. Vulnerability is defined as a measure of system susceptibility to threat scenarios. This article asserts that vulnerability is a condition of the system and it can be quantified using the Infrastructure Vulnerability Assessment Model (I-VAM). The model is presented and then applied to a medium-sized clean water system. The model requires subject matter experts (SMEs) to establish value functions and weights, and to assess protection measures of the system. Simulation is used to account for uncertainty in measurement, aggregate expert assessment, and to yield a vulnerability (Omega) density function. Results demonstrate that I-VAM is useful to decisionmakers who prefer quantification to qualitative treatment of vulnerability. I-VAM can be used to quantify vulnerability to other infrastructures, supervisory control and data acquisition systems (SCADA), and distributed control systems (DCS).

Assessing Household Economic Vulnerability in HIV-Affected Communities in Five Regions of Côte d'Ivoire

PubMed Central

Burke, Holly M.; Moret, Whitney; Field, Samuel; Chen, Mario; Zeng, Yanwu; Seka, Firmin M.

2016-01-01

The objective of this study was to identify and describe levels of household economic vulnerability in HIV-affected communities in Côte d’Ivoire, defined as those with a high prevalence of HIV and large numbers of orphans and vulnerable children. We conducted a cross-sectional survey of 3,749 households in five health regions of Côte d’Ivoire. Using principal component analysis, we attempted to identify sets of correlated vulnerabilities and derive a small number of composite scores to create an index for targeting interventions to vulnerable populations. The 65 vulnerability measures examined did not cluster in ways that would allow for the creation of a small number of composite measures. Instead, we found that households face numerous unique pathways to vulnerability. PMID:27655530

Full annual cycle climate change vulnerability assessment for migratory birds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Culp, Leah A.; Cohen, Emily B.; Scarpignato, Amy L.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Marra, Peter P.

2017-01-01

Climate change is a serious challenge faced by all plant and animal species. Climate change vulnerability assessments (CCVAs) are one method to assess risk and are increasingly used as a tool to inform management plans. Migratory animals move across regions and continents during their annual cycles where they are exposed to diverse climatic conditions. Climate change during any period and in any region of the annual cycle could influence survival, reproduction, or the cues used to optimize timing of migration. Therefore, CCVAs for migratory animals best estimate risk when they include climate exposure during the entire annual cycle. We developed a CCVA incorporating the full annual cycle and applied this method to 46 species of migratory birds breeding in the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes (UMGL) region of the United States. Our methodology included background risk, climate change exposure × climate sensitivity, adaptive capacity to climate change, and indirect effects of climate change. We compiled information about migratory connectivity between breeding and stationary non-breeding areas using literature searches and U.S. Geological Survey banding and re-encounter data. Climate change exposure (temperature and moisture) was assessed using UMGL breeding season climate and winter climate from non-breeding regions for each species. Where possible, we focused on non-breeding regions known to be linked through migratory connectivity. We ranked 10 species as highly vulnerable to climate change and two as having low vulnerability. The remaining 34 species were ranked as moderately vulnerable. In general, including non-breeding data provided more robust results that were highly individualistic by species. Two species were found to be highly vulnerable throughout their annual cycle. Projected drying will have the greatest effect during the non-breeding season for species overwintering in Mexico and the Caribbean. Projected temperature increases will have the greatest

6 CFR 27.215 - Security vulnerability assessments.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 6 Domestic Security 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Security vulnerability assessments. 27.215... FACILITY ANTI-TERRORISM STANDARDS Chemical Facility Security Program § 27.215 Security vulnerability...-risk, the facility must complete a Security Vulnerability Assessment. A Security Vulnerability...

Vulnerability assessment and risk perception: the case of the Arieş River Middle Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ozunu, Al.; Botezan, C.

2012-04-01

Vulnerability assessment is influenced by a number of factors, including risk perception. This paper investigates the vulnerability of people living in the middle basin of the Aries river region, a former mining area, to natural and technologic hazards. The mining industry lead to significant environmental changes, which combined with the social problems caused by its decline (high unemployment rate, low income and old age) raised the level of the vulnerability in the area. This case study is unique, as it includes an evaluation of risk perception and its influence on the social vulnerability and resilience of local communities to disasters. Key words: vulnerability assessment, natural hazards, social vulnerability, risk perception

Climate change vulnerability for species-Assessing the assessments.

PubMed

Wheatley, Christopher J; Beale, Colin M; Bradbury, Richard B; Pearce-Higgins, James W; Critchlow, Rob; Thomas, Chris D

2017-09-01

Climate change vulnerability assessments are commonly used to identify species at risk from global climate change, but the wide range of methodologies available makes it difficult for end users, such as conservation practitioners or policymakers, to decide which method to use as a basis for decision-making. In this study, we evaluate whether different assessments consistently assign species to the same risk categories and whether any of the existing methodologies perform well at identifying climate-threatened species. We compare the outputs of 12 climate change vulnerability assessment methodologies, using both real and simulated species, and validate the methods using historic data for British birds and butterflies (i.e. using historical data to assign risks and more recent data for validation). Our results show that the different vulnerability assessment methods are not consistent with one another; different risk categories are assigned for both the real and simulated sets of species. Validation of the different vulnerability assessments suggests that methods incorporating historic trend data into the assessment perform best at predicting distribution trends in subsequent time periods. This study demonstrates that climate change vulnerability assessments should not be used interchangeably due to the poor overall agreement between methods when considering the same species. The results of our validation provide more support for the use of trend-based rather than purely trait-based approaches, although further validation will be required as data become available. © 2017 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Research on vulnerability assessments of the Huanghe (Yellow River) delta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

qiao, shuqing; shi, xuefa

2014-05-01

Coastal zone located at the juncture of the sea, river and land, and under the influence of both land and ocean (including atmosphere), especially the sea-level rise and human activities, are vulnerable to environment and ecology. At highest risk are coastal zone of South, Southeast and East Asia with dense populations, low elevations and inadequate adaptive capacity. In China, more than 40% of the population live on the 15% of the land in coastal area and more than 70% cities located around the coastal area. The Chinese coastal region, especially river delta area has been experienced erosion, seawater intrusion and decrease in biodiversity under the combined influence of sea-level rise, tectonic subsidence and flooding. Furthermore, some kinds of human activity, such as land use, building, dam construction, reclamation from the sea and waste dumping strengthen the vulnerability of environment and ecosystem in coastal region. The coastal hazards (e.g. coastal erosion, seawater intrusion, land subsidence) and vulnerability of the Huanghe (Yelllow River) delta area are studied during the past several years. A systematic coastal assessment index is built and an evaluation model is developed using the development platform of Visual studio.Net 2005. The assessment index system includes two parts, inherent (sea level rise rate, elevation, morphology, water and sediment discharge, mean tidal range, mean wave height etc) and specific vulnerability index (population density, GDP, land utilization, protection structures etc). The assessment index are determined the weight using Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method. Based on the research results, we better understand the current status and future change of coastal vulnerability and hazards, discuss the impact of the natural possess and human activities. Furthermore, we provide defending strategies for coastal zone vulnerability and typical coastal hazards.

Chicago Wilderness region urban forest vulnerability assessment and synthesis: a report from the Urban Forestry Climate Change Response Framework Chicago Wilderness pilot project

Treesearch

Leslie A. Brandt; Abigail Derby Lewis; Lydia Scott; Lindsay Darling; Robert T. Fahey; Louis Iverson; David J. Nowak; Allison R. Bodine; Andrew Bell; Shannon Still; Patricia R. Butler; Andrea Dierich; Stephen D. Handler; Maria K. Janowiak; Stephen N. Matthews; Jason W. Miesbauer; Matthew Peters; Anantha Prasad; P. Danielle Shannon; Douglas Stotz; Christopher W. Swanston

2017-01-01

The urban forest of the Chicago Wilderness region, a 7-million-acre area covering portions of Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, and Wisconsin, will face direct and indirect impacts from a changing climate over the 21st century. This assessment evaluates the vulnerability of urban trees and natural and developed landscapes within the Chicago Wilderness region to a range of...

Drought vulnerability assessment for prioritising drought warning implementation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naumann, Gustavo; Faneca Sànchez, Marta; Mwangi, Emmah; Barbosa, Paulo; Iglesias, Ana; Garrote, Luis; Werner, Micha

2014-05-01

Drought warning provides a potentially efficient approach to mitigation of drought impacts, and should be targeted at areas most vulnerable to being adversely impacted. Assessing drought vulnerability is, however, complex and needs to consider susceptibility to drought impact as well as the capacity to cope with drought. In this paper a Drought Vulnerability Index (DVI) is proposed that considers four primary components that reflect the capacity of society to adapt to drought; the renewable natural capital, the economic capacity, the human and civic resources, and the available infrastructure and technology. The DVI is established as a weighted combination of these four components, each a composite of selected indicators. Constituent indicators are calculated based on national and/or regional census data and statistics, and while the resulting DVI should not be considered an absolute measure of drought vulnerability it does provide for a prioritisation of areas that can be used to target drought warning efforts. Sensitivity analysis of weights applied show the established DVI to be robust. Through the DVI the development of drought forecasting and warning can be targeted at the most vulnerable areas. The proposed DVI is applied at both the continental scale in Africa to assess drought vulnerability of the different nations across Africa, and at the national level in Kenya, allowing for prioritisation of the counties within Kenya to drought vulnerability. Results show the relative vulnerability of countries and counties vulnerable to drought. At the continental scale, Somalia, Burundi, Niger, Ethiopia, Mali and Chad are found to be the countries most vulnerable to drought. At the national level, the relative vulnerability of the counties across Kenya is found, with counties in the North-East of Kenya having the highest values of DVI. At the country level results were compared with drought disaster information from the EM-DAT disaster database, showing a good

V-DRASTIC: Using visualization to engage policymakers in groundwater vulnerability assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bojórquez-Tapia, Luis A.; Cruz-Bello, Gustavo M.; Luna-González, Laura; Juárez, Lourdes; Ortiz-Pérez, Mario A.

2009-06-01

SummaryGroundwater vulnerability mapping is increasingly being used to design aquifer protection and management strategies. This paper presents a dynamic visualization method to groundwater vulnerability mapping. This method—called V-DRASTIC—extends the capacities of DRASTIC, an overlay/index technique that has been applied worldwide to evaluate the condition of hydrogeological factors and determine groundwater vulnerability at regional scales. V-DRASTIC is based upon psychophysics' principles (a theory that describes the people's response to a stimulus) to generate alternative groundwater vulnerability categorization schemes. These are used as inputs in a fuzzy pattern recognition procedure to enable planners, decision makers and stakeholders identify which scheme conveys meaningful information regarding groundwater vulnerability across a territory. V-DRASTIC was applied in the groundwater vulnerability assessment of two urban watersheds in Mexico.

Coastal vulnerability assessment of Puducherry coast, India using analytical hierarchical process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mani Murali, R.; Ankita, M.; Amrita, S.; Vethamony, P.

2013-03-01

Increased frequency of natural hazards such as storm surge, tsunami and cyclone, as a consequence of change in global climate, is predicted to have dramatic effects on the coastal communities and ecosystems by virtue of the devastation they cause during and after their occurrence. The tsunami of December 2004 and the Thane cyclone of 2011 caused extensive human and economic losses along the coastline of Puducherry and Tamil Nadu. The devastation caused by these events highlighted the need for vulnerability assessment to ensure better understanding of the elements causing different hazards and to consequently minimize the after-effects of the future events. This paper advocates an Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) based approach to coastal vulnerability studies as an improvement to the existing methodologies for vulnerability assessment. The paper also encourages the inclusion of socio-economic parameters along with the physical parameters to calculate the coastal vulnerability index using AHP derived weights. Seven physical-geological parameters (slope, geomorphology, elevation, shoreline change, sea level rise, significant wave height and tidal range) and four socio-economic factors (population, Land-use/Land-cover (LU/LC), roads and location of tourist places) are considered to measure the Physical Vulnerability Index (PVI) as well as the Socio-economic Vulnerability Index (SVI) of the Puducherry coast. Based on the weights and scores derived using AHP, vulnerability maps are prepared to demarcate areas with very low, medium and high vulnerability. A combination of PVI and SVI values are further utilized to compute the Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI). Finally, the various coastal segments are grouped into the 3 vulnerability classes to obtain the final coastal vulnerability map. The entire coastal extent between Muthiapet and Kirumampakkam as well as the northern part of Kalapet is designated as the high vulnerability zone which constitutes 50% of the

Exploring spatial patterns of vulnerability for diverse biodiversity descriptors in regional conservation planning.

PubMed

Vimal, Ruppert; Pluvinet, Pascal; Sacca, Céline; Mazagol, Pierre-Olivier; Etlicher, Bernard; Thompson, John D

2012-03-01

In this study, we developed a multi-criteria assessment of spatial variability of the vulnerability of three different biodiversity descriptors: sites of high conservation interest by virtue of the presence of rare or remarkable species, extensive areas of high ecological integrity, and landscape diversity in grid cells across an entire region. We assessed vulnerability in relation to (a) direct threats in and around sites to a distance of 2 km associated with intensive agriculture, building and road infrastructure and (b) indirect effects of human population density on a wider scale (50 km). The different combinations of biodiversity and threat indicators allowed us to set differential priorities for biodiversity conservation and assess their spatial variation. For example, with this method we identified sites and grid cells which combined high biodiversity with either high threat values or low threat values for the three different biodiversity indicators. In these two classes the priorities for conservation planning will be different, reduce threat values in the former and restrain any increase in the latter. We also identified low priority sites (low biodiversity with either high or low threats). This procedure thus allows for the integration of a spatial ranking of vulnerability into priority setting for regional conservation planning. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Framework, Third Edition

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-11-01

The Federal Highway Administrations (FHWAs) Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Framework (the Framework), third edition, is a manual to help transportation agencies and their partners assess the vulnerability of transportation infrastructu...

77 FR 28894 - Maritime Vulnerability Self-Assessment Tool

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-05-16

... DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY Transportation Security Administration Maritime Vulnerability Self... maritime vulnerability self- assessment tool. SUMMARY: The Transportation Security Administration (TSA... conducting vulnerability assessments became available and usage of the TMSARM has dropped off considerably...

Climate change & extreme weather vulnerability assessment framework.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-12-01

The Federal Highway Administrations (FHWAs) Climate Change and Extreme Weather Vulnerability : Assessment Framework is a guide for transportation agencies interested in assessing their vulnerability : to climate change and extreme weather event...

Assessing intrinsic and specific vulnerability models ability to indicate groundwater vulnerability to groups of similar pesticides: A comparative study

USGS Publications Warehouse

Douglas, Steven; Dixon, Barnali; Griffin, Dale W.

2018-01-01

With continued population growth and increasing use of fresh groundwater resources, protection of this valuable resource is critical. A cost effective means to assess risk of groundwater contamination potential will provide a useful tool to protect these resources. Integrating geospatial methods offers a means to quantify the risk of contaminant potential in cost effective and spatially explicit ways. This research was designed to compare the ability of intrinsic (DRASTIC) and specific (Attenuation Factor; AF) vulnerability models to indicate groundwater vulnerability areas by comparing model results to the presence of pesticides from groundwater sample datasets. A logistic regression was used to assess the relationship between the environmental variables and the presence or absence of pesticides within regions of varying vulnerability. According to the DRASTIC model, more than 20% of the study area is very highly vulnerable. Approximately 30% is very highly vulnerable according to the AF model. When groundwater concentrations of individual pesticides were compared to model predictions, the results were mixed. Model predictability improved when concentrations of the group of similar pesticides were compared to model results. Compared to the DRASTIC model, the AF model more accurately predicts the distribution of the number of contaminated wells within each vulnerability class.

Coastal vulnerability assessment of Puducherry coast, India, using the analytical hierarchical process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mani Murali, R.; Ankita, M.; Amrita, S.; Vethamony, P.

2013-12-01

As a consequence of change in global climate, an increased frequency of natural hazards such as storm surges, tsunamis and cyclones, is predicted to have dramatic affects on the coastal communities and ecosystems by virtue of the devastation they cause during and after their occurrence. The tsunami of December 2004 and the Thane cyclone of 2011 caused extensive human and economic losses along the coastline of Puducherry and Tamil Nadu. The devastation caused by these events highlighted the need for vulnerability assessment to ensure better understanding of the elements causing different hazards and to consequently minimize the after- effects of the future events. This paper demonstrates an analytical hierarchical process (AHP)-based approach to coastal vulnerability studies as an improvement to the existing methodologies for vulnerability assessment. The paper also encourages the inclusion of socio-economic parameters along with the physical parameters to calculate the coastal vulnerability index using AHP-derived weights. Seven physical-geological parameters (slope, geomorphology, elevation, shoreline change, sea level rise, significant wave height and tidal range) and four socio-economic factors (population, land use/land cover (LU/LC), roads and location of tourist areas) are considered to measure the physical vulnerability index (PVI) as well as the socio-economic vulnerability index (SVI) of the Puducherry coast. Based on the weights and scores derived using AHP, vulnerability maps are prepared to demarcate areas with very low, medium and high vulnerability. A combination of PVI and SVI values are further utilized to compute the coastal vulnerability index (CVI). Finally, the various coastal segments are grouped into the 3 vulnerability classes to obtain the coastal vulnerability map. The entire coastal extent between Muthiapet and Kirumampakkam as well as the northern part of Kalapet is designated as the high vulnerability zone, which constitutes 50% of the

Remote Sensing Based Vulnerability Assessment of Desertification in Mongolia and Myanmar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lim, C. H.; Lee, E. J.; Song, C.; Lee, W. K.; Jeon, S. W.

2015-12-01

Desertification is one of the global threatening problems in respect of society, economy, and environment, and the assessment of desertification is essential for land planning and management. However desertification is a process that encompasses various factors in various aspects, having difficulties to assess qualitatively. The main purpose of the research is to qualitatively assess sensitivity of land to desertification, and detect the most vulnerable land to desertification in Mongolia and Myanmar using the Mediterranean Desertification and Land Use (MEDALUS) approach. MEDALUS approach aims to provide a manual on key indicators of desertification and mapping environmentally sensitive areas to desertification in the Mediterranean countries. However in this research, MEDALUS approach is implemented and reviewed on the countries located in the Middle Asia; Mongolia and Myanmar. MEDALUS approach identifies regions with the highest risk of desertification with 4 quality index; climate, soil, vegetation, management. Within the four quality index are several regional scale indicators for Mongolia and Myanmar, which gives effect with increasing or decreasing risk of desertification. MODIS satellite images, Digital Elevation Model (DEM), and climatic and geographical data were used to calculate the indicators. The weighting of each indicator ranged from 1 to 2; the higher weight the more vulnerable to desertification. The weighted indicators were allocated to 4 quality index, and the four quality index was summed to calculate Environmentally Sensitive Area Index (ESAI) representing the vulnerability of land degradation to desertification. As a result, the Middle East region of Mongolia showed the highest sensitivity, thus the most vulnerable to desertification. Based on the result of this study, it is useful to identify the current state of affairs and the necessity of land planning in Mongolia and Myanmar, one tool that can be utilized for combating desertification. The

Assessing the geomorphological vulnerability of arid beach-dune systems.

PubMed

Peña-Alonso, Carolina; Gallego-Fernández, Juan B; Hernández-Calvento, Luis; Hernández-Cordero, Antonio I; Ariza, Eduard

2018-09-01

In this study, an arid dune vulnerability index (ADVI) is developed using a system of indicators to evaluate the geomorphological vulnerability of beach-dune systems of arid regions. The indicators are comprised of three analytical dimensions (susceptibility, exposure and resilience) and their corresponding sub-indices and variables and were assessed for eleven sites located in four aeolian sedimentary systems of the Canary archipelago (Spain). The selected sites have varying geomorphological characteristics, vegetation types, marine and wind conditions and human pressure degrees, and have seen different trends in their geomorphological evolution since 1960. The eleven sites were separated into three groups according to their different conservation status and different management needs, and the results of the ADVI dimensions and variables were compared and analyzed for these three groups. In general, the results obtained in the analyzed sites reveal that susceptibility and exposure dimensions are related to low-moderate values, while resilience was high. Only one site presented a state of critical vulnerability, due to the loss of its capacity to maintain its geomorphological function in recent decades. Given the lack of knowledge about geomorphological vulnerability processes in foredunes of arid regions, ADVI is the first approximation to geomorphological diagnostic in these environments and can be useful for managers. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Assessing vulnerability to drought: identifying underlying factors across Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Urquijo, Julia; Gonzalez Tánago, Itziar; Ballesteros, Mario; De Stefano, Lucia

2015-04-01

Drought is considered one of the most severe and damaging natural hazards in terms of people and sectors affected and associated losses. Drought is a normal and recurrent climatic phenomenon that occurs worldwide, although its spatial and temporal characteristics vary significantly among climates. In the case of Europe, in the last thirty years, the region has suffered several drought events that have caused estimated economic damages over a €100 billion and have affected almost 20% of its territory and population. In recent years, there has been a growing awareness among experts and authorities of the need to shift from a reactive crisis approach to a drought risk management approach, as well as of the importance of designing and implementing policies, strategies and plans at country and river basin levels to deal with drought. The identification of whom and what is vulnerable to drought is a central aspect of drought risk mitigation and planning and several authors agree that societal vulnerability often determines drought risk more than the actual precipitation shortfalls. The final aim of a drought vulnerability assessment is to identify the underlying sources of drought impact, in order to develop policy options that help to enhance coping capacity and therefore to prevent drought impact. This study identifies and maps factors underlying vulnerability to drought across Europe. The identification of factors influencing vulnerability starts from the analysis of past drought impacts in four European socioeconomic sectors. This analysis, along with an extensive literature review, led to the selection of vulnerability factors that are both relevant and adequate for the European context. Adopting the IPCC model, vulnerability factors were grouped to describe exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. The aggregation of these components has resulted in the mapping of vulnerability to drought across Europe at NUTS02 level. Final results have been compared with

VuWiki: An Ontology-Based Semantic Wiki for Vulnerability Assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khazai, Bijan; Kunz-Plapp, Tina; Büscher, Christian; Wegner, Antje

2014-05-01

The concept of vulnerability, as well as its implementation in vulnerability assessments, is used in various disciplines and contexts ranging from disaster management and reduction to ecology, public health or climate change and adaptation, and a corresponding multitude of ideas about how to conceptualize and measure vulnerability exists. Three decades of research in vulnerability have generated a complex and growing body of knowledge that challenges newcomers, practitioners and even experienced researchers. To provide a structured representation of the knowledge field "vulnerability assessment", we have set up an ontology-based semantic wiki for reviewing and representing vulnerability assessments: VuWiki, www.vuwiki.org. Based on a survey of 55 vulnerability assessment studies, we first developed an ontology as an explicit reference system for describing vulnerability assessments. We developed the ontology in a theoretically controlled manner based on general systems theory and guided by principles for ontology development in the field of earth and environment (Raskin and Pan 2005). Four key questions form the first level "branches" or categories of the developed ontology: (1) Vulnerability of what? (2) Vulnerability to what? (3) What reference framework was used in the vulnerability assessment?, and (4) What methodological approach was used in the vulnerability assessment? These questions correspond to the basic, abstract structure of the knowledge domain of vulnerability assessments and have been deduced from theories and concepts of various disciplines. The ontology was then implemented in a semantic wiki which allows for the classification and annotation of vulnerability assessments. As a semantic wiki, VuWiki does not aim at "synthesizing" a holistic and overarching model of vulnerability. Instead, it provides both scientists and practitioners with a uniform ontology as a reference system and offers easy and structured access to the knowledge field of

Vulnerability of Forests in India: A National Scale Assessment.

PubMed

Sharma, Jagmohan; Upgupta, Sujata; Jayaraman, Mathangi; Chaturvedi, Rajiv Kumar; Bala, Govindswamy; Ravindranath, N H

2017-09-01

Forests are subjected to stress from climatic and non-climatic sources. In this study, we have reported the results of inherent, as well as climate change driven vulnerability assessments for Indian forests. To assess inherent vulnerability of forests under current climate, we have used four indicators, namely biological richness, disturbance index, canopy cover, and slope. The assessment is presented as spatial profile of inherent vulnerability in low, medium, high and very high vulnerability classes. Fourty percent forest grid points in India show high or very high inherent vulnerability. Plantation forests show higher inherent vulnerability than natural forests. We assess the climate change driven vulnerability by combining the results of inherent vulnerability assessment with the climate change impact projections simulated by the Integrated Biosphere Simulator dynamic global vegetation model. While 46% forest grid points show high, very high, or extremely high vulnerability under future climate in the short term (2030s) under both representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5, such grid points are 49 and 54%, respectively, in the long term (2080s). Generally, forests in the higher rainfall zones show lower vulnerability as compared to drier forests under future climate. Minimizing anthropogenic disturbance and conserving biodiversity can potentially reduce forest vulnerability under climate change. For disturbed forests and plantations, adaptive management aimed at forest restoration is necessary to build long-term resilience.

Vulnerability of Forests in India: A National Scale Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, Jagmohan; Upgupta, Sujata; Jayaraman, Mathangi; Chaturvedi, Rajiv Kumar; Bala, Govindswamy; Ravindranath, N. H.

2017-09-01

Forests are subjected to stress from climatic and non-climatic sources. In this study, we have reported the results of inherent, as well as climate change driven vulnerability assessments for Indian forests. To assess inherent vulnerability of forests under current climate, we have used four indicators, namely biological richness, disturbance index, canopy cover, and slope. The assessment is presented as spatial profile of inherent vulnerability in low, medium, high and very high vulnerability classes. Fourty percent forest grid points in India show high or very high inherent vulnerability. Plantation forests show higher inherent vulnerability than natural forests. We assess the climate change driven vulnerability by combining the results of inherent vulnerability assessment with the climate change impact projections simulated by the Integrated Biosphere Simulator dynamic global vegetation model. While 46% forest grid points show high, very high, or extremely high vulnerability under future climate in the short term (2030s) under both representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5, such grid points are 49 and 54%, respectively, in the long term (2080s). Generally, forests in the higher rainfall zones show lower vulnerability as compared to drier forests under future climate. Minimizing anthropogenic disturbance and conserving biodiversity can potentially reduce forest vulnerability under climate change. For disturbed forests and plantations, adaptive management aimed at forest restoration is necessary to build long-term resilience.

A Multihazard Regional Level Impact Assessment for South Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amarnath, Giriraj; Alahacoon, Niranga; Aggarwal, Pramod; Smakhtin, Vladimir

2016-04-01

To prioritize climate adaptation strategies, there is a need for quantitative and systematic regional-level assessments which are comparable across multiple climatic hazard regimes. Assessing which countries in a region are most vulnerable to climate change requires analysis of multiple climatic hazards including: droughts, floods, extreme temperature as well as rainfall and sea-level rise. These five climatic hazards, along with population densities were modelled using GIS which enabled a summary of associated human exposure and agriculture losses. A combined index based on hazard, exposure and adaptive capacity is introduced to identify areas of extreme risks. The analysis results in population climate hazard exposure defined as the relative likelihood that a person in a given location was exposed to a given climate-hazard event in a given period of time. The study presents a detailed and coherent approach to fine-scale climate hazard mapping and identification of risks areas for the regions of South Asia that, for the first time, combines the following unique features: (a) methodological consistency across different climate-related hazards, (b) assessment of total exposure on population and agricultural losses, (c) regional-level spatial coverage, and (d) development of customized tools using ArcGIS toolbox that allow assessment of changes in exposure over time and easy replacement of existing datasets with a newly released or superior datasets. The resulting maps enable comparison of the most vulnerable regions in South Asia to climate-related hazards and is among the most urgent of policy needs. Subnational areas (regions/districts/provinces) most vulnerable to climate change impacts in South Asia are documented. The approach involves overlaying climate hazard maps, sensitivity maps, and adaptive capacity maps following the vulnerability assessment framework of the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The study used data on the

Coastal vulnerability assessment of the Northern Gulf of Mexico to sea-level rise and coastal change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pendleton, E.A.; Barras, J.A.; Williams, S.J.; Twichell, D.C.

2010-01-01

A coastal vulnerability index (CVI) was used to map the relative vulnerability of the coast to future sea-level rise along the Northern Gulf of Mexico from Galveston, TX, to Panama City, FL. The CVI ranks the following in terms of their physical contribution to sea-level rise-related coastal change: geomorphology, regional coastal slope, rate of relative sea-level rise, historical shoreline change rate, mean tidal range, and mean significant wave height. The rankings for each variable are combined and an index value is calculated for 1-kilometer grid cells along the coast. The CVI highlights those regions where the physical effects of sea-level rise might be the greatest. The CVI assessment presented here builds on an earlier assessment conducted for the Gulf of Mexico. Recent higher resolution shoreline change, land loss, elevation, and subsidence data provide the foundation for a better assessment for the Northern Gulf of Mexico. The areas along the Northern Gulf of Mexico that are likely to be most vulnerable to sea-level rise are parts of the Louisiana Chenier Plain, Teche-Vermillion Basin, and the Mississippi barrier islands, as well as most of the Terrebonne and Barataria Bay region and the Chandeleur Islands. These very high vulnerability areas have the highest rates of relative sea-level rise and the highest rates of shoreline change or land area loss. The information provided by coastal vulnerability assessments can be used in long-term coastal management and policy decision making.

CALTRANS CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENTS

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2018-01-01

The following report was developed for the California Department of Transportation (Caltrans) to summarize a vulnerability assessment conducted for assets in Caltrans District 4. The assessment was developed to specifically identify the potential eff...

Assessment of groundwater vulnerability by applying the modified DRASTIC model in Beihai City, China.

PubMed

Wu, Xiaoyu; Li, Bin; Ma, Chuanming

2018-05-01

This study assesses vulnerability of groundwater to pollution in Beihai City, China, as a support of groundwater resource protection. The assessment result not only objectively reflects potential possibility of groundwater to contamination but also provides scientific basis for the planning and utilization of groundwater resources. This study optimizes the parameters consisting of natural factors and human factors upon the DRASTIC model and modifies the ratings of these parameters, based on the local environmental conditions for the study area. And a weight of each parameter is assigned by the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to reduce the subjectivity of humans to vulnerability assessment. The resulting scientific ratings and weights of modified DRASTIC model (AHP-DRASTLE model) contribute to obtain the more realistic assessment of vulnerability of groundwater to contaminant. The comparison analysis validates the accuracy and rationality of the AHP-DRASTLE model and shows it suits the particularity of the study area. The new assessment method (AHP-DRASTLE model) can provide a guide for other scholars to assess the vulnerability of groundwater to contamination. The final vulnerability map for the AHP-DRASTLE model shows four classes: highest (2%), high (29%), low (55%), and lowest (14%). The vulnerability map serves as a guide for decision makers on groundwater resource protection and land use planning at the regional scale and that it is adapted to a specific area.

Extending Vulnerability Assessment to Include Life Stages Considerations

PubMed Central

Hodgson, Emma E.; Essington, Timothy E.; Kaplan, Isaac C.

2016-01-01

Species are experiencing a suite of novel stressors from anthropogenic activities that have impacts at multiple scales. Vulnerability assessment is one tool to evaluate the likely impacts that these stressors pose to species so that high-vulnerability cases can be identified and prioritized for monitoring, protection, or mitigation. Commonly used semi-quantitative methods lack a framework to explicitly account for differences in exposure to stressors and organism responses across life stages. Here we propose a modification to commonly used spatial vulnerability assessment methods that includes such an approach, using ocean acidification in the California Current as an illustrative case study. Life stage considerations were included by assessing vulnerability of each life stage to ocean acidification and were used to estimate population vulnerability in two ways. We set population vulnerability equal to: (1) the maximum stage vulnerability and (2) a weighted mean across all stages, with weights calculated using Lefkovitch matrix models. Vulnerability was found to vary across life stages for the six species explored in this case study: two krill–Euphausia pacifica and Thysanoessa spinifera, pteropod–Limacina helicina, pink shrimp–Pandalus jordani, Dungeness crab–Metacarcinus magister and Pacific hake–Merluccius productus. The maximum vulnerability estimates ranged from larval to subadult and adult stages with no consistent stage having maximum vulnerability across species. Similarly, integrated vulnerability metrics varied greatly across species. A comparison showed that some species had vulnerabilities that were similar between the two metrics, while other species’ vulnerabilities varied substantially between the two metrics. These differences primarily resulted from cases where the most vulnerable stage had a low relative weight. We compare these methods and explore circumstances where each method may be appropriate. PMID:27416031

Extending Vulnerability Assessment to Include Life Stages Considerations.

PubMed

Hodgson, Emma E; Essington, Timothy E; Kaplan, Isaac C

2016-01-01

Species are experiencing a suite of novel stressors from anthropogenic activities that have impacts at multiple scales. Vulnerability assessment is one tool to evaluate the likely impacts that these stressors pose to species so that high-vulnerability cases can be identified and prioritized for monitoring, protection, or mitigation. Commonly used semi-quantitative methods lack a framework to explicitly account for differences in exposure to stressors and organism responses across life stages. Here we propose a modification to commonly used spatial vulnerability assessment methods that includes such an approach, using ocean acidification in the California Current as an illustrative case study. Life stage considerations were included by assessing vulnerability of each life stage to ocean acidification and were used to estimate population vulnerability in two ways. We set population vulnerability equal to: (1) the maximum stage vulnerability and (2) a weighted mean across all stages, with weights calculated using Lefkovitch matrix models. Vulnerability was found to vary across life stages for the six species explored in this case study: two krill-Euphausia pacifica and Thysanoessa spinifera, pteropod-Limacina helicina, pink shrimp-Pandalus jordani, Dungeness crab-Metacarcinus magister and Pacific hake-Merluccius productus. The maximum vulnerability estimates ranged from larval to subadult and adult stages with no consistent stage having maximum vulnerability across species. Similarly, integrated vulnerability metrics varied greatly across species. A comparison showed that some species had vulnerabilities that were similar between the two metrics, while other species' vulnerabilities varied substantially between the two metrics. These differences primarily resulted from cases where the most vulnerable stage had a low relative weight. We compare these methods and explore circumstances where each method may be appropriate.

AN OVERVIEW OF DATA INTEGRATION METHODS FOR REGIONAL ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

One of the goals of the EPA's Regional Vulnerability Assessment (ReVA) project is to take diverse environmental data and develop objective criteria to evaluate environmental risk assessments at the regions: scale. The data include (but are not limited to) variables for forests, ...

Vulnerability assessment at a national level in Georgia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsereteli, N.; Arabidze, V.; Varazanashvili, O.; Gugeshashvili, T.

2012-04-01

Vulnerability assessment at a national level in Georgia Nino Tsereteli, Vakhtang Arabidze, Otar Varazanashvili, Tengiz Gugeshashvili The risk always exists when cities are built on. Population growth in cities and urbanization in natural hazard-prone zones leads to infrastructure expansion. The goal of the society is to construct natural hazards resistant infrastructure and minimize the expected losses. This is a complicated task as there is always knowledge deficiency on real seismic hazard and vulnerability. Assessment of vulnerability is vital in risk analysis, as vulnerability is defined in many different ways. Work presented here mostly deals with assessment of infrastructure's and population vulnerability at national level in Georgia. This work was initiated by NATO SFP project "seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment for Southern Caucasus - Eastern Turkey Energy Corridors" and the two work packages WP4 (seismic risk) and WP5 (city scenarios) of risk module of EMME (Earthquake Model of the Middle East Region) project. First step was creation databases (inventory) of elements at risk in GIS. Element at risk were the buildings, population, pipelines. The inventories was studied and Created in GIS for the following categories: Building material, number of stories, number of entrances, condition of building, building period. For pipelines pipe tipe (continous or segmented), material, pipe diameter. Very important is to estimate the initial cost of building for assessment of economic losses. From this purpose the attempt was done and the algorithm of this estimation were prepared taking into account obtained the inventory. Build quality, reliability and durability are of special importance to corresponding state agencies and include different aesthetic, engineering, practical, social, technological and economical aspects. The necessity that all of these aspects satisfy existing normative requirements becomes evident as the building and structures come into exploitation

Integrated assessment on the vulnerability of animal husbandry to snow disasters under climate change in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Yanqiang; Wang, Shijin; Fang, Yiping; Nawaz, Zain

2017-10-01

Animal husbandry is a dominant and traditional source of livelihood and income in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. The Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau is the third largest snow covered area in China and is one of the main snow disaster regions in the world. It is thus imperative to urgently address the issue of vulnerability of the animal husbandry sector to snow disasters for disaster mitigation and adaptation under growing risk of these disasters as a result of future climate change. However, there is very few literature reported on the vulnerability of animal husbandry in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. This assessment aims at identifying vulnerability of animal husbandry at spatial scale and to identify the reasons for vulnerability for adaptive planning and disaster mitigation. First, historical snow disaster characteristics have been analyzed and used for the spatial weight for vulnerability assessment. Second, indicator-based vulnerability assessment model and indicator system have been established. We combined risk of snow hazard, sensitivity of livestock to disaster, physical exposure to disaster, and community capacity to adapt to snow disaster in an integrated vulnerability index. Lastly, vulnerability of animal husbandry to snow disaster on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau has been evaluated. Results indicate that high vulnerabilities are mainly concentrated in the eastern and central plateau and that vulnerability decreases gradually from the east to the west. Due to global warming, the vulnerability trend has eased to some extent during the last few decades. High livestock density exposure to blizzard-prone regions and shortages of livestock barn and forage are the main reasons of high vulnerability. The conclusion emphasizes the important role of the local government and community to help local pastoralists for reducing vulnerability to snow disaster and frozen hazard. The approaches presented in this paper can be used for snow disaster mitigation, resilience

Assessing species vulnerability to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pacifici, Michela; Foden, Wendy B.; Visconti, Piero; Watson, James E. M.; Butchart, Stuart H. M.; Kovacs, Kit M.; Scheffers, Brett R.; Hole, David G.; Martin, Tara G.; Akçakaya, H. Resit; Corlett, Richard T.; Huntley, Brian; Bickford, David; Carr, Jamie A.; Hoffmann, Ary A.; Midgley, Guy F.; Pearce-Kelly, Paul; Pearson, Richard G.; Williams, Stephen E.; Willis, Stephen G.; Young, Bruce; Rondinini, Carlo

2015-03-01

The effects of climate change on biodiversity are increasingly well documented, and many methods have been developed to assess species' vulnerability to climatic changes, both ongoing and projected in the coming decades. To minimize global biodiversity losses, conservationists need to identify those species that are likely to be most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. In this Review, we summarize different currencies used for assessing species' climate change vulnerability. We describe three main approaches used to derive these currencies (correlative, mechanistic and trait-based), and their associated data requirements, spatial and temporal scales of application and modelling methods. We identify strengths and weaknesses of the approaches and highlight the sources of uncertainty inherent in each method that limit projection reliability. Finally, we provide guidance for conservation practitioners in selecting the most appropriate approach(es) for their planning needs and highlight priority areas for further assessments.

Coastal flooding hazard assessment on potentially vulnerable coastal sectors at Varna regional coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eftimova, Petya; Valchev, Nikolay; Andreeva, Nataliya

2017-04-01

Storm induced flooding is one of the most significant threats that the coastal communities face. In the light of the climate change it is expected to gain even more importance. Therefore, the adequate assessment of this hazard could increase the capability of mitigation of environmental, social, and economic impacts. The study was accomplished in the frames of the Coastal Risk Assessment Framework (CRAF) developed within the FP7 RISC-KIT Project (Resilience-Increasing Strategies for Coasts - toolkit). The hazard assessment was applied on three potentially vulnerable coastal sectors located at the regional coast of Varna, Bulgarian Black Sea coast. The potential "hotspot" candidates were selected during the initial phase of CRAF which evaluated the coastal risks at regional level. The area of interest comprises different coastal types - from natural beaches and rocky cliffs to man modified environments presented by coastal and port defense structures such as the Varna Port breakwater, groynes, jetties and beaches formed by the presence of coastal structures. The assessment of coastal flooding was done using combination of models -XBeach model and LISFLOOD inundation model applied consecutively. The XBeach model was employed to calculate the hazard intensities at the coast up to the berm crest, while LISFLOOD model was used to calculate the intensity and extent of flooding in the hinterland. At the first stage, 75 extreme storm events were simulated using XBeach model run in "non-hydrostatic" mode to obtain series of flood depth, depth-velocity and overtopping discharges at the predefined coastal cross-shore transects. Extreme value analysis was applied to the calculated hazard parameters series in order to determine their probability distribution functions. This is so called response approach, which is focused on the onshore impact rather than on the deep water boundary conditions. It allows calculation of the hazard extremes probability distribution induced by a

Assessment of economic vulnerability to infectious disease crises.

PubMed

Sands, Peter; El Turabi, Anas; Saynisch, Philip A; Dzau, Victor J

2016-11-12

Infectious disease crises have substantial economic impact. Yet mainstream macroeconomic forecasting rarely takes account of the risk of potential pandemics. This oversight contributes to persistent underestimation of infectious disease risk and consequent underinvestment in preparedness and response to infectious disease crises. One reason why economists fail to include economic vulnerability to infectious disease threats in their assessments is the absence of readily available and digestible input data to inform such analysis. In this Viewpoint we suggest an approach by which the global health community can help to generate such inputs, and a framework to use these inputs to assess the economic vulnerability to infectious disease crises of individual countries and regions. We argue that incorporation of these risks in influential macroeconomic analyses such as the reports from the International Monetary Fund's Article IV consultations, rating agencies and risk consultancies would simultaneously improve the quality of economic risk forecasting and reinforce individual government and donor incentives to mitigate infectious disease risks. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Protection of agriculture against drought in Slovenia based on vulnerability and risk assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dovžak, M.; Stanič, S.; Bergant, K.; Gregorič, G.

2012-04-01

Past and recent extreme events, like earthquakes, extreme droughts, heat waves, flash floods and volcanic eruptions continuously remind us that natural hazards are an integral component of the global environment. Despite rapid improvement of detection techniques many of these events evade long-term or even mid-term prediction and can thus have disastrous impacts on affected communities and environment. Effective mitigation and preparedness strategies will be possible to develop only after gaining the understanding on how and where such hazards may occur, what causes them, what circumstances increase their severity, and what their impacts may be and their study has the recent years emerged as under the common title of natural hazard management. The first step in natural risk management is risk identification, which includes hazard analysis and monitoring, vulnerability analysis and determination of the risk level. The presented research focuses on drought, which is at the present already the most widespread as well as still unpredictable natural hazard. Its primary aim was to assess the frequency and the consequences of droughts in Slovenia based on drought events in the past, to develop methodology for drought vulnerability and risk assessment that can be applied in Slovenia and wider in South-Eastern Europe, to prepare maps of drought risk and crop vulnerability and to guidelines to reduce the vulnerability of the crops. Using the amounts of plant available water in the soil, slope inclination, solar radiation, land use and irrigation infrastructure data sets as inputs, we obtained vulnerability maps for Slovenia using GIS-based multi-criteria decision analysis with a weighted linear combination of the input parameters. The weight configuration was optimized by comparing the modelled crop damage to the assessed actual damage, which was available for the extensive drought case in 2006. Drought risk was obtained quantitatively as a function of hazard and

A hybrid framework for assessing maize drought vulnerability in Sub-Saharan Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kamali, B.; Abbaspour, K. C.; Wehrli, B.; Yang, H.

2017-12-01

Drought has devastating impacts on crop yields. Quantifying drought vulnerability is the first step to better design of mitigation policies. The vulnerability of crop yield to drought has been assessed with different methods, however they lack a standardized base to measure its components and a procedure that facilitates spatial and temporal comparisons. This study attempts to quantify maize drought vulnerability through linking the Drought Exposure Index (DEI) to the Crop Failure Index (CFI). DEI and CFI were defined by fitting probability distribution functions to precipitation and maize yield respectively. To acquire crop drought vulnerability index (CDVI), DEI and CFI were combined in a hybrid framework which classifies CDVI with the same base as DEI and CFI. The analysis were implemented on Sub-Saharan African countries using maize yield simulated with the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model at 0.5° resolution. The model was coupled with the Sequential Uncertainty Fitting algorithm for calibration at country level. Our results show that Central Africa and those Western African countries located below the Sahelian strip receive higher amount of precipitation, but experience high crop failure. Therefore, they are identified as more vulnerable regions compared to countries such as South Africa, Tanzania, and Kenya. We concluded that our hybrid approach complements information on crop drought vulnerability quantification and can be applied to different regions and scales.

Groundwater vulnerability to climate change: A review of the assessment methodology.

PubMed

Aslam, Rana Ammar; Shrestha, Sangam; Pandey, Vishnu Prasad

2018-01-15

Impacts of climate change on water resources, especially groundwater, can no longer be hidden. These impacts are further exacerbated under the integrated influence of climate variability, climate change and anthropogenic activities. The degree of impact varies according to geographical location and other factors leading systems and regions towards different levels of vulnerability. In the recent past, several attempts have been made in various regions across the globe to quantify the impacts and consequences of climate and non-climate factors in terms of vulnerability to groundwater resources. Firstly, this paper provides a structured review of the available literature, aiming to critically analyse and highlight the limitations and knowledge gaps involved in vulnerability (of groundwater to climate change) assessment methodologies. The effects of indicator choice and the importance of including composite indicators are then emphasised. A new integrated approach for the assessment of groundwater vulnerability to climate change is proposed to successfully address those limitations. This review concludes that the choice of indicator has a significant role in defining the reliability of computed results. The effect of an individual indicator is also apparent but the consideration of a combination (variety) of indicators may give more realistic results. Therefore, in future, depending upon the local conditions and scale of the study, indicators from various groups should be chosen. Furthermore, there are various assumptions involved in previous methodologies, which limit their scope by introducing uncertainty in the calculated results. These limitations can be overcome by implementing the proposed approach. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Relative vulnerability of public supply wells to VOC contamination in hydrologically distinct regional aquifers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kauffman, L.J.; Chapelle, F.H.

2010-01-01

A process-based methodology was used to compare the vulnerability of public supply wells tapping seven study areas in four hydrologically distinct regional aquifers to volatile organic compound (VOC) contamination. This method considers (1) contributing areas and travel times of groundwater flowpaths converging at individual supply wells, (2) the oxic and/or anoxic conditions encountered along each flowpath, and (3) the combined effects of hydrodynamic dispersion and contaminant- and oxic/anoxic-specific biodegradation. Contributing areas and travel times were assessed using particle tracks generated from calibrated regional groundwater flow models. These results were then used to estimate VOC concentrations relative to an unspecified initial concentration (C/C0) at individual public supply wells. The results show that the vulnerability of public supply wells to VOC contamination varies widely between different regional aquifers. Low-recharge rates, long travel times, and the predominantly oxic conditions characteristic of Basin and Range aquifers in the western United States leads to lower vulnerability to VOCs, particularly to petroleum hydrocarbons such as benzene and toluene. On the other hand, high recharge rates and short residence times characteristic of the glacial aquifers of the eastern United States leads to greater vulnerability to VOCs. These differences lead to distinct patterns of C/C0 values estimated for public supply wells characteristic of each aquifer, information that can be used by resource managers to develop monitoring plans based on relative vulnerability, to locate new public supply wells, or to make land-use management decisions. Journal compilation ?? 2010 National Ground Water Association. No claim to original US government works.

The arctic water resource vulnerability index: An integrated assessment tool for community resilience and vulnerability with respect to freshwater

USGS Publications Warehouse

Alessa, L.; Kliskey, A.; Lammers, R.; Arp, C.; White, D.; Hinzman, L.; Busey, R.

2008-01-01

People in the Arctic face uncertainty in their daily lives as they contend with environmental changes at a range of scales from local to global. Freshwater is a critical resource to people, and although water resource indicators have been developed that operate from regional to global scales and for midlatitude to equatorial environments, no appropriate index exists for assessing the vulnerability of Arctic communities to changing water resources at the local scale. The Arctic Water Resource Vulnerability Index (AWRVI) is proposed as a tool that Arctic communities can use to assess their relative vulnerability-resilience to changes in their water resources from a variety of biophysical and socioeconomic processes. The AWRVI is based on a social-ecological systems perspective that includes physical and social indicators of change and is demonstrated in three case study communities/watersheds in Alaska. These results highlight the value of communities engaging in the process of using the AWRVI and the diagnostic capability of examining the suite of constituent physical and social scores rather than the total AWRVI score alone. ?? 2008 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.

The arctic water resource vulnerability index: an integrated assessment tool for community resilience and vulnerability with respect to freshwater.

PubMed

Alessa, Lilian; Kliskey, Andrew; Lammers, Richard; Arp, Chris; White, Dan; Hinzman, Larry; Busey, Robert

2008-09-01

People in the Arctic face uncertainty in their daily lives as they contend with environmental changes at a range of scales from local to global. Freshwater is a critical resource to people, and although water resource indicators have been developed that operate from regional to global scales and for midlatitude to equatorial environments, no appropriate index exists for assessing the vulnerability of Arctic communities to changing water resources at the local scale. The Arctic Water Resource Vulnerability Index (AWRVI) is proposed as a tool that Arctic communities can use to assess their relative vulnerability-resilience to changes in their water resources from a variety of biophysical and socioeconomic processes. The AWRVI is based on a social-ecological systems perspective that includes physical and social indicators of change and is demonstrated in three case study communities/watersheds in Alaska. These results highlight the value of communities engaging in the process of using the AWRVI and the diagnostic capability of examining the suite of constituent physical and social scores rather than the total AWRVI score alone.

Comparative studies of groundwater vulnerability assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maria, Rizka

2018-02-01

Pollution of groundwater is a primary issue because aquifers are susceptible to contamination from land use and anthropogenic impacts. Groundwater susceptibility is intrinsic and specific. Intrinsic vulnerability refers to an aquifer that is susceptible to pollution and to the geological and hydrogeological features. Vulnerability assessment is an essential step in assessing groundwater contamination. This approach provides a visual analysis for helping planners and decision makers to achieve the sustainable management of water resources. Comparative studies are applying different methodologies to result in the basic evaluation of the groundwater vulnerability. Based on the comparison of methods, there are several advantages and disadvantages. SI can be overlaid on DRASTIC and Pesticide DRASTIC to extract the divergence in sensitivity. DRASTIC identifies low susceptibility and underestimates the pollution risk while Pesticide DRASTIC and SI represents better risk and is recommended for the future. SINTACS method generates very high vulnerability zones with surface waters and aquifer interactions. GOD method could be adequate for vulnerability mapping in karstified carbonate aquifers at small-moderate scales, and EPIK method can be used for large scale. GOD method is suitable for designing large area such as land management while DRASTIC has good accuracy and more real use in geoenvironmental detailed studies.

Coupling transfer function and GIS for assessing non-point-source groundwater vulnerability at regional scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coppola, A.; Comegna, V.; de Simone, L.

2009-04-01

Non-point source (NPS) pollution in the vadose zone is a global environmental problem. The knowledge and information required to address the problem of NPS pollutants in the vadose zone cross several technological and sub disciplinary lines: spatial statistics, geographic information systems (GIS), hydrology, soil science, and remote sensing. The main issues encountered by NPS groundwater vulnerability assessment, as discussed by Stewart [2001], are the large spatial scales, the complex processes that govern fluid flow and solute transport in the unsaturated zone, the absence of unsaturated zone measurements of diffuse pesticide concentrations in 3-D regional-scale space as these are difficult, time consuming, and prohibitively costly, and the computational effort required for solving the nonlinear equations for physically-based modeling of regional scale, heterogeneous applications. As an alternative solution, here is presented an approach that is based on coupling of transfer function and GIS modeling that: a) is capable of solute concentration estimation at a depth of interest within a known error confidence class; b) uses available soil survey, climatic, and irrigation information, and requires minimal computational cost for application; c) can dynamically support decision making through thematic mapping and 3D scenarios This result was pursued through 1) the design and building of a spatial database containing environmental and physical information regarding the study area, 2) the development of the transfer function procedure for layered soils, 3) the final representation of results through digital mapping and 3D visualization. One side GIS modeled environmental data in order to characterize, at regional scale, soil profile texture and depth, land use, climatic data, water table depth, potential evapotranspiration; on the other side such information was implemented in the up-scaling procedure of the Jury's TFM resulting in a set of texture based travel time

Urban flood risk mitigation: from vulnerability assessment to resilient city

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Serre, D.; Barroca, B.

2009-04-01

some research activities have been undertaken, there are no specific methods and tools to assess flood vulnerability at the scale of the city. Indeed, by studying literature we can list some vulnerability indicators and a few Geographic Information System (GIS) tools. But generally indicators and GIS are not developed specifically at the city scale: often a regional scale is used. Analyzing vulnerability at this scale needs more accurate and formalized indicators and GIS tools. The second limit of existing GIS is temporal: even if vulnerability could be assessed and localized through GIS, such tools cannot assist city managers in their decision to efficiency recover after a severe flood event. Due to scale and temporal limits, methods and tools available to assess urban vulnerability need large improvements. Talking into account all these considerations and limits, our research is focusing on: • vulnerability indicators design; • recovery scenarios design; • GIS for city vulnerability assessment and recovery scenarios. Dealing with vulnerability indicators, the goal is to design a set of indicators of city sub systems. Sub systems are seen like assets of high value and complex and interdependent infrastructure networks (i.e. power supplies, communications, water, transport etc.). The infrastructure networks are critical for the continuity of economic activities as well as for the people's basic living needs. Their availability is also required for fast and effective recovery after flood disasters. The severity of flood damage therefore largely depends on the degree that both high value assets and critical urban infrastructure are affected, either directly or indirectly. To face the challenge of designing indicators, a functional model of the city system (and sub systems) has to be built to analyze the system response to flood solicitation. Then, a coherent and an efficient set of vulnerability of indicators could be built up. With such methods city stakeholders

Social vulnerability of rural households to flood hazards in western mountainous regions of Henan province, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, D. L.; Li, Y.

2015-11-01

Evaluating social vulnerability is a crucial issue in risk and disaster management. In this study, a household social vulnerability index (HSVI) to flood hazards was developed and used to assess the social vulnerability of rural households in western mountainous regions of Henan province, China. Eight key indicators were indentified through interactive discussions with multidisciplinary specialists and local farmers, and their weights were determined using principle component analysis (PCA). The results showed that (1) the ratio of perennial working in other places, hazard-related training and illiteracy ratio (15+) were the most dominant factors to social vulnerability. (2) The numbers of high, moderate and low vulnerable households were 14, 64 and 16, respectively, which accounted for 14.9, 68.1, and 17.0 % of the total interviewed rural households, respectively. (3) The correlation coefficient between household social vulnerability scores and casualties in a storm flood in July 2010 was significant at 0.05 significance level (r = 0.248), which indicated that the selected indicators and their weights were valid. (4) Some mitigation strategies to reduce the household social vulnerability to flood hazards were proposed based on the assessment results. The results provide useful information for rural households and local governments to prepare, mitigate and response to flood hazards.

Climate change vulnerability assessment in Georgia

Treesearch

Binita KC; J. Marshall Shepherd; Cassandra Johnson Gaither

2015-01-01

Climate change is occurring in the Southeastern United States, and one manifestation is changes in frequency and intensity of extreme events. A vulnerability assessment is performed in the state of Georgia (United States) at the county level from 1975 to 2012 in decadal increments. Climate change vulnerability is typically measured as a function of exposure to physical...

Developing Vulnerability Analysis Method for Climate Change Adaptation on Agropolitan Region in Malang District

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sugiarto, Y.; Perdinan; Atmaja, T.; Wibowo, A.

2017-03-01

Agriculture plays a strategic role in strengthening sustainable development. Based on agropolitan concept, the village becomes the center of economic activities by combining agriculture, agro-industry, agribusiness and tourism that able to create high value-added economy. The impact of climate change on agriculture and water resources may increase the pressure on agropolitan development. The assessment method is required to measure the vulnerability of area-based communities in the agropolitan to climate change impact. An analysis of agropolitan vulnerability was conducted in Malang district based on four aspects and considering the availability and distribution of water as the problem. The indicators used to measure was vulnerability component which consisted of sensitivity and adaptive capacity and exposure component. The studies earned 21 indicators derived from the 115 village-based data. The results of vulnerability assessments showed that most of the villages were categorised at a moderate level. Around 20% of 388 villages were categorized at high to very high level of vulnerability due to low level of agricultural economic. In agropolitan region within the sub-district of Poncokusumo, the vulnerability of the villages varies between very low to very high. The most villages were vulnerable due to lower adaptive capacity, eventhough the level of sensitivity and exposure of all villages were relatively similar. The existence of water resources was the biggest contributor to the high exposure of the villages in Malang district, while the reception of credit facilities and source of family income were among the indicators that lead to high sensitivity component.

Review Article: A comparison of flood and earthquake vulnerability assessment indicators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Ruiter, Marleen C.; Ward, Philip J.; Daniell, James E.; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.

2017-07-01

In a cross-disciplinary study, we carried out an extensive literature review to increase understanding of vulnerability indicators used in the disciplines of earthquake- and flood vulnerability assessments. We provide insights into potential improvements in both fields by identifying and comparing quantitative vulnerability indicators grouped into physical and social categories. Next, a selection of index- and curve-based vulnerability models that use these indicators are described, comparing several characteristics such as temporal and spatial aspects. Earthquake vulnerability methods traditionally have a strong focus on object-based physical attributes used in vulnerability curve-based models, while flood vulnerability studies focus more on indicators applied to aggregated land-use classes in curve-based models. In assessing the differences and similarities between indicators used in earthquake and flood vulnerability models, we only include models that separately assess either of the two hazard types. Flood vulnerability studies could be improved using approaches from earthquake studies, such as developing object-based physical vulnerability curve assessments and incorporating time-of-the-day-based building occupation patterns. Likewise, earthquake assessments could learn from flood studies by refining their selection of social vulnerability indicators. Based on the lessons obtained in this study, we recommend future studies for exploring risk assessment methodologies across different hazard types.

Southwest principal aquifers regional ground-water quality assessment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Anning, D.W.; Thiros, Susan A.; Bexfield, L.M.; McKinney, T.S.; Green, J.M.

2009-01-01

The National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program of the U.S. Geological Survey is conducting a regional analysis of water quality in the principal aquifers in the southwestern United States. The Southwest Principal Aquifers (SWPA) study is building a better understanding of the susceptibility and vulnerability of basin-fill aquifers in the region to ground-water contamination by synthesizing the baseline knowledge of ground-water quality conditions in 15 basins previously studied by the NAWQA Program. The improved understanding of aquifer susceptibility and vulnerability to contamination is assisting in the development of tools that water managers can use to assess and protect the quality of ground-water resources. This fact sheet provides an overview of the basin-fill aquifers in the southwestern United States and description of the completed and planned regional analyses of ground-water quality being performed by the SWPA study.

Northwest Regional Climate Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lipschultz, Fred

2011-01-01

Objectives are to establish a continuing, inclusive National process that: 1) synthesizes relevant science and information 2) increases understanding of what is known & not known 3) identifies information needs related to preparing for climate variability and change, and reducing climate impacts and vulnerability 4) evaluates progress of adaptation & mitigation activities 5) informs science priorities 6) builds assessment capacity in regions and sectors 7) builds understanding & skilled use of findings

An overview of data integration methods for regional assessment.

PubMed

Locantore, Nicholas W; Tran, Liem T; O'Neill, Robert V; McKinnis, Peter W; Smith, Elizabeth R; O'Connell, Michael

2004-06-01

The U.S. Environmental Protections Agency's (U.S. EPA) Regional Vulnerability Assessment(ReVA) program has focused much of its research over the last five years on developing and evaluating integration methods for spatial data. An initial strategic priority was to use existing data from monitoring programs, model results, and other spatial data. Because most of these data were not collected with an intention of integrating into a regional assessment of conditions and vulnerabilities, issues exist that may preclude the use of some methods or require some sort of data preparation. Additionally, to support multi-criteria decision-making, methods need to be able to address a series of assessment questions that provide insights into where environmental risks are a priority. This paper provides an overview of twelve spatial integration methods that can be applied towards regional assessment, along with preliminary results as to how sensitive each method is to data issues that will likely be encountered with the use of existing data.

[Integrated assessment of eco-environmental vulnerability in Pearl River Delta based on RS and GIS].

PubMed

Xu, Qing-Yong; Huang, Mei; Liu, Hong-Sheng; Yan, Hui-Min

2011-11-01

Based on the remote sensing data and with the help of geographic information system, an integrated assessment was conducted on the eco-environmental vulnerability of Pearl River Delta in 2004-2008. Spatial principal component analysis was used to generate the evaluation indicators, and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was applied to determine the weights of the evaluation factors. The reasons causing the vulnerability of the eco- environment in Pearl River Delta were discussed. In the study area, its middle part was the most vulnerable region, occupying 34.0% of the total, eastern part was the moderately vulnerable region, accounting for 25.5%, and western part was the lightly and slightly vulnerable areas, accounting for 28.7 and 11.8%, respectively. Totally, the moderately and lightly vulnerable areas occupied 54.2%, indicating that a majority of the Delta was under moderate and light vulnerability. The natural factors affecting the eco-environmental vulnerability of the Delta were altitude, heavy rain days, water and soil erosion rate, flooded infield rate, normalized difference vegetation index (ND VI) and landscape diversity index, whereas the human factors were population density, waste discharge per unit area, exhaust emission per unit area, land use change, chemical fertilization intensity, pesticide application intensity, amount of motor vehicles possessed by ten thousands people, and index of environmental protection investment. The main characteristics of the extremely and heavily vulnerable regions were low altitude, high frequency of flood disaster, large flooded infield, serious vegetation degradation, high pollution level and low environment protection investment index.

Vulnerability assessments as a political creation: tsunami management in Portugal.

PubMed

Pronk, Maartje; Maat, Harro; Crane, Todd A

2017-10-01

Vulnerability assessments are a cornerstone of contemporary disaster research. This paper shows how research procedures and the presentation of results of vulnerability assessments are politically filtered. Using data from a study of tsunami risk assessment in Portugal, the paper demonstrates that approaches, measurement instruments, and research procedures for evaluating vulnerability are influenced by institutional preferences, lines of communication, or lack thereof, between stakeholder groups, and available technical expertise. The institutional setting and the pattern of stakeholder interactions form a filter, resulting in a particular conceptualisation of vulnerability, affecting its operationalisation via existing methods and technologies and its institutional embedding. The Portuguese case reveals a conceptualisation that is aligned with perceptions prevalent in national government bureaucracies and the exclusion of local stakeholders owing to selected methodologies and assessment procedures. The decisions taken by actors involved in these areas affect how vulnerability is assessed, and ultimately which vulnerability reduction policies will be recommended in the appraisal. © 2017 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2017.

Spatial-temporal eco-environmental vulnerability assessment and its influential factors based on Landsat data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anh, N. K.; Liou, Y. A.; Ming-Hsu, L.

2016-12-01

Regional land use/land cover (LULC) changes lead to various changes in ecological processes and, in turn, alter regional micro-climate. To understand eco-environmental responses to LULC changes, eco-environmental evaluation is thus required with aims to identify vulnerable regions and influential factors, so that practical measures for environmental protection and management may be proposed. The Thua Thien - Hue Province has been experiencing urbanization at a rapid rate in both population and physical size. The urban land, agricultural land, and aquaculture activities have been invasively into natural space and caused eco-environment deterioration by land desertification, soil erosion, shrinking forest resources,…etc. In this study, an assessment framework that is composed by 11 variables with 9 of them constructed from Landsat time series is proposed to serve as basis to examine eco-environmental vulnerability in the Thua Thien - Hue Province in years 1989, 2003, and 2014. An eco-environmental vulnerability map is assorted into six vulnerability levels consisting of potential, slight, light, medium, heavy, and very heavy vulnerabilities. Result shows that there is an increasing trend in eco-environmental vulnerability in general with expected evolving distributions in heavy and very heavy vulnerability levels, which mainly lying on developed land, bare land, semi bare land, agricultural land, and poor and recovery forests. In contrast, there is a significant decline in potential vulnerability level. The contributing factors of an upward trend in medium, heavy, and very heavy levels include: (i) a large natural forest converted to plantation forest and agriculture land; and (ii) significant expansion of developed land leading to difference in thermal signatures in urban areas as compared with those of the surrounding areas. It is concluded that anthropogenic processes with transformation on LULC has amplified the vulnerability of eco-environment in the study

Assessing the social vulnerability to malaria in Rwanda.

PubMed

Bizimana, Jean-Pierre; Twarabamenye, Emmanuel; Kienberger, Stefan

2015-01-07

Since 2004, malaria interventions in Rwanda have resulted in substantial decline of malaria incidence. However, this achievement is fragile as potentials for local malaria transmissions remain. The risk of getting malaria infection is partially explained by social conditions of vulnerable populations. Since vulnerability to malaria is both influenced by social and environmental factors, its complexity cannot be measured by a single value. The aim of this paper is, therefore, to apply a composite indicator approach for assessing social vulnerability to malaria in Rwanda. This assessment informs the decision-makers in targeting malaria interventions and allocating limited resources to reduce malaria burden in Rwanda. A literature review was used to conceptualize the social vulnerability to malaria and to select the appropriate vulnerability indicators. Indicators used in the index creation were classified into susceptibility and lack of resilience vulnerability domains. The main steps followed include selection of indicators and datasets, imputation of missing values, descriptive statistics, normalization and weighting of indicators, local sensitivity analysis and indicators aggregation. Correlation analysis helped to empirically evidence the association between the indicators and malaria incidence. The high values of social vulnerability to malaria are found in Gicumbi, Rusizi, Nyaruguru and Gisagara, and low values in Muhanga, Nyarugenge, Kicukiro and Nyanza. The most influential susceptibility indicators to increase malaria are population change (r = 0.729), average number of persons per bedroom (r = 0.531), number of households affected by droughts and famines (r = 0.591), and area used for irrigation (r = 0.611). The bed net ownership (r = -0.398) and poor housing wall materials (0.378) are the lack of resilience indicators that significantly correlate with malaria incidence. The developed composite index social vulnerability to malaria

Improving satellite vulnerability assessment to untrackable orbital debris

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Welty, Nathan; Schaefer, Frank; Rudolph, Martin; Destefanis, Roberto; Grassi, Lilith

2012-07-01

The projected growth in the untrackable orbital debris population will place an increased emphasis on satellite vulnerability assessments during both design and mission operations. This study presents an enhanced method for assessing satellite vulnerability to untrackable orbital debris that expands on traditional practices. By looking beyond structural penetration of the spacecraft, the method predicts the survivability of individual components and the associated degradation of system functionality resulting from untrackable debris impacts. A new risk assessment tool, the Particle Impact Risk and Vulnerability Assessment Tool (PIRAT), has been developed based on this method and is also presented here. It interfaces with both the NASA ORDEM2000 and ESA MASTER-2009 debris models and has been validated against the benchmark test cases from the Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (IADC). This study concludes with an example vulnerability assessment using PIRAT for a generic Earth observation satellite in a Sun-synchronous low-Earth orbit. The results illustrate the additional insight provided by this method that can be used to improve the robustness of future satellite designs and mitigate the overall mission risk posed by untrackable orbital debris.

7 CFR 1730.27 - Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA).

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 11 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA). 1730.27... Requirements § 1730.27 Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA). (a) Each borrower with an approved RUS electric...'s system, and records of such additional assessments shall be maintained by the borrower. (b) Each...

7 CFR 1730.27 - Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA).

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 11 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA). 1730.27... Requirements § 1730.27 Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA). (a) Each borrower with an approved RUS electric...'s system, and records of such additional assessments shall be maintained by the borrower. (b) Each...

7 CFR 1730.27 - Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA).

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 11 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA). 1730.27... Requirements § 1730.27 Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA). (a) Each borrower with an approved RUS electric...'s system, and records of such additional assessments shall be maintained by the borrower. (b) Each...

7 CFR 1730.27 - Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA).

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 11 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA). 1730.27... Requirements § 1730.27 Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA). (a) Each borrower with an approved RUS electric...'s system, and records of such additional assessments shall be maintained by the borrower. (b) Each...

Can Regional Climate Models be used in the assessment of vulnerability and risk caused by extreme events?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nunes, Ana

2015-04-01

Extreme meteorological events played an important role in catastrophic occurrences observed in the past over densely populated areas in Brazil. This motived the proposal of an integrated system for analysis and assessment of vulnerability and risk caused by extreme events in urban areas that are particularly affected by complex topography. That requires a multi-scale approach, which is centered on a regional modeling system, consisting of a regional (spectral) climate model coupled to a land-surface scheme. This regional modeling system employs a boundary forcing method based on scale-selective bias correction and assimilation of satellite-based precipitation estimates. Scale-selective bias correction is a method similar to the spectral nudging technique for dynamical downscaling that allows internal modes to develop in agreement with the large-scale features, while the precipitation assimilation procedure improves the modeled deep-convection and drives the land-surface scheme variables. Here, the scale-selective bias correction acts only on the rotational part of the wind field, letting the precipitation assimilation procedure to correct moisture convergence, in order to reconstruct South American current climate within the South American Hydroclimate Reconstruction Project. The hydroclimate reconstruction outputs might eventually produce improved initial conditions for high-resolution numerical integrations in metropolitan regions, generating more reliable short-term precipitation predictions, and providing accurate hidrometeorological variables to higher resolution geomorphological models. Better representation of deep-convection from intermediate scales is relevant when the resolution of the regional modeling system is refined by any method to meet the scale of geomorphological dynamic models of stability and mass movement, assisting in the assessment of risk areas and estimation of terrain stability over complex topography. The reconstruction of past extreme

Assessing the Agricultural Vulnerability for India under Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, Tarul; Vardhan Murari, Harsha; Karmakar, Subhankar; Ghosh, Subimal; Singh, Jitendra

2016-04-01

Global climate change has proven to show majorly negative impacts for the far future. These negative impacts adversely affect almost all the fields including agriculture, water resources, tourism, and marine ecosystem. Among these, the effects on agriculture are considered to be of prime importance since its regional impacts can directly affect the global food security. Under such lines, it becomes essential to understand how climate change directs agricultural production for a region along with its vulnerability. In India, rice and wheat are considered as major staple diet and hence understanding its production loss/gain due to regional vulnerability to climate change becomes necessary. Here, an attempt has been made to understand the agricultural vulnerability for rice and wheat, considering yield as a function of temperature and precipitation during growing period. In order to accomplish this objective, the ratio of actual to potential evapo-transpiration has been considered which serves as a reliable indicator; with more this ratio towards unity, less vulnerable will be the region. The current objective needs an integration of climatic, hydrological and agricultural parameters; that can be achieved by simulating a climate data driven hydrologic (Variable Infiltration Capacity, VIC) model and a crop (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer, DSSAT) model. The proposed framework is an attempt to derive a crop vulnerability map that can facilitate in strategizing adaption practices which can reduce the adverse impacts of climate change in future.

Vulnerability studies and integrated assessments for hazard risk reduction in Pittsburgh, PA (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klima, K.

2013-12-01

Today's environmental problems stretch beyond the bounds of most academic disciplines, and thus solutions require an interdisciplinary approach. For instance, the scientific consensus is changes in the frequency and severity of many types of extreme weather events are increasing (IPCC 2012). Yet despite our efforts to reduce greenhouse gases, we continue to experience severe weather events such as Superstorm Sandy, record heat and blizzards, and droughts. These natural hazards, combined with increased vulnerability and exposure, result in longer-lasting disruptions to critical infrastructure and business continuity throughout the world. In order to protect both our lives and the economy, we must think beyond the bounds of any one discipline to include an integrated assessment of relevant work. In the wake of recent events, New York City, Washington, DC, Chicago, and a myriad of other cities have turned to their academic powerhouses for assistance in better understanding their vulnerabilities. This talk will share a case study of the state of integrated assessments and vulnerability studies of energy, transportation, water, real estate, and other main sectors in Pittsburgh, PA. Then the talk will use integrated assessment models and other vulnerability studies to create coordinated sets of climate projections for use by the many public agencies and private-sector organizations in the region.

Volcanic risk assessment: Quantifying physical vulnerability in the built environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jenkins, S. F.; Spence, R. J. S.; Fonseca, J. F. B. D.; Solidum, R. U.; Wilson, T. M.

2014-04-01

This paper presents structured and cost-effective methods for assessing the physical vulnerability of at-risk communities to the range of volcanic hazards, developed as part of the MIA-VITA project (2009-2012). An initial assessment of building and infrastructure vulnerability has been carried out for a set of broadly defined building types and infrastructure categories, with the likelihood of damage considered separately for projectile impact, ash fall loading, pyroclastic density current dynamic pressure and earthquake ground shaking intensities. In refining these estimates for two case study areas: Kanlaon volcano in the Philippines and Fogo volcano in Cape Verde, we have developed guidelines and methodologies for carrying out physical vulnerability assessments in the field. These include identifying primary building characteristics, such as construction material and method, as well as subsidiary characteristics, for example the size and prevalence of openings, that may be important in assessing eruption impacts. At-risk buildings around Kanlaon were found to be dominated by timber frame buildings that exhibit a high vulnerability to pyroclastic density currents, but a low vulnerability to failure from seismic shaking. Around Fogo, the predominance of unreinforced masonry buildings with reinforced concrete slab roofs suggests a high vulnerability to volcanic earthquake but a low vulnerability to ash fall loading. Given the importance of agriculture for local livelihoods around Kanlaon and Fogo, we discuss the potential impact of infrastructure vulnerability for local agricultural economies, with implications for volcanic areas worldwide. These methodologies and tools go some way towards offering a standardised approach to carrying out future vulnerability assessments for populated volcanic areas.

Urban growth patterns in major Southeast Asian cities: Toward exposure mapping and vulnerability assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mandapaka, Pradeep; Kamarajugedda, Shankar A.; Lo, Edmond Y. M.

2017-04-01

Southeast Asia (SEA) is undergoing rapid urbanization, with urban population percentage increasing from 32% in 1990 to 48% in 2015. It is projected that by the year 2040, urban regions in SEA account for 60% of its total population. The region is home to 600 million people, with many densely populated cities, including megacities such as Jakarta, Bangkok, and Manila. The region has more than 20,000 islands, and many cities lie on coastal low-lands and floodplains. These geographical characteristics together with the increasing population, infrastructure growth, and changing climate makes the region highly vulnerable to natural hazards. This study assessed urban growth dynamics in major (defined as population exceeding 1 million) SEA cities using remotely sensed night-time lights (NTL) data. A recently proposed brightness gradient approach was applied on 21 years (1992-2012) of NTL annual composites to derive core-urban (CU) and peri-urban (PU) regions within each city. The study also assessed the sensitivity of above extracted urban categories to different NTL thresholds. The temporal trends in CU and PU regions were quantified, and compared with trends in socio-economic indicators. The spatial expansion of CU and PU regions were found to depend on geographical constraints and socio-economic factors. Quantification of urban growth spatial-temporal patterns, as conducted here contributes towards the understanding of exposure and vulnerability of people and infrastructures to natural hazards, as well as the evolving trends for assessment under projected urbanization conditions. This will underpin better risk assessment efforts for present and future planning.

A multi-site reconstruction algorithm for bottom-up vulnerability assessment of water resource systems to changing streamflow conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nazemi, A.; Zaerpour, M.

2016-12-01

Current paradigm for assessing the vulnerability of water resource systems to changing streamflow conditions often involves a cascade application of climate and hydrological models to project the future states of streamflow regime, entering to a given water resource system. It is widely warned, however, that the overall uncertainty in this "top-down" modeling enterprise can be large due to the limitations in representing natural and anthropogenic processes that affect future streamflow variability and change. To address this, various types of stress-tests are suggested to assess the vulnerability of water resources systems under a wide range of possible changes in streamflow conditions. The scope of such "bottom-up" assessments can go well beyond top-down projections and therefore provide a basis for monitoring different response modes, under which water resource systems become vulnerable. Despite methodological differences, all bottom-up assessments are equipped with a systematic sampling procedure, with which different possibilities for future climate and/or streamflow conditions can be realized. Regardless of recent developments, currently available streamflow sampling algorithms are still limited, particularly in regional contexts, for which accurate representation of spatiotemporal dependencies in streamflow regime are of major importance. In this presentation, we introduce a new development that enables handling temporal and spatial dependencies in regional streamflow regimes through a unified stochastic reconstruction algorithm. We demonstrate the application of this algorithm accross various Canadian regions. By considering a real-world regional water resources system, we show how the new multi-site reconstruction algorithm can extend the practical utility of bottom-up vulnerability assessment and improve quantifying the associated risk in natural and anthropogenic water systems under unknown future conditions.

Assessment of Vulnerability to Climate Change Effects on Urban Stormwater Infrastructure in City of Las Vegas, NV

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thakali, R.; Kalra, A.; Mastino, L.; Velotta, M.; Ahmad, S.

2016-12-01

In the spring of 2016 the City of Las Vegas and the Southern Illinois University began collaborating on a project that seeks to assess the city's current vulnerability to drought, extreme heat, and extreme precipitation patterns, as well as the response mechanisms that are already in place within its jurisdiction. The document analyzes a series of scenarios to assess to what extent the vulnerability of four Key Planning Areas will change in the long term (30-50 years), what will be the most affected city operations, and what mechanisms the City will need to put into place to adapt to such changes. As part of the vulnerability report, this study assessed the impacts of climate change in the existing stormwater system of the Gowan watershed within City of Las Vegas, NV, by assessing projected design storms. The climate change projection for the region was evaluated using the high-resolution North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) climate model data. The design storms (6h 100y) were calculated using the best fitted probability distribution among twenty-seven distributions for the historic and future NARCCAP climate model projection. North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) data were used to assess the performance of NARCCAP data. The projected design storms were implemented in an existing U.S. Army Corps of Engineers' Hydrologic Engineering Center Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) model developed by Clark County Regional Flood Control District (CCRFCD), Las Vegas. The simulation results showed an increase in the design storms which exceeded the capacity of existing stormwater infrastructure.

Linking local vulnerability to climatic hazard damage assessment for integrated river basin management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hung, Hung-Chih; Liu, Yi-Chung; Chien, Sung-Ying

2015-04-01

the Kaoping, Tsengwen, and Taimali River basins in southern Taiwan, and on the disaster impacts and damages in these river basins due to Typhoon Morakot in 2009. The data was offered by the National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction, Taiwan, as well as collected from the National Land Use Investigation, official census statistics and questionnaire surveys. 3. Results We use an MCDA to create a composite vulnerability index, and this index is incorporated into a GIS analysis to demonstrate the results of integrated vulnerability assessment throughout the river basins. Results of the vulnerability assessment indicate that the most vulnerable areas are almost all situated in the regions of middle and upper reaches of the river basins. Through the examining of DDM, it shows that the vulnerability factors play a critical role in determining disaster damages. Findings also present that the losses and casualties caused by Typhoon Morakot increase with elevation, urban and agricultural developments, proximity to rivers, and decrease with levels of income and adaptive capacity. Finally, we propose the adaptive options for minimizing vulnerability and risk, as well as for integrated river basin governance.

A comparison of data-driven groundwater vulnerability assessment methods

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sorichetta, Alessandro; Ballabio, Cristiano; Masetti, Marco; Robinson, Gilpin R.; Sterlacchini, Simone

2013-01-01

Increasing availability of geo-environmental data has promoted the use of statistical methods to assess groundwater vulnerability. Nitrate is a widespread anthropogenic contaminant in groundwater and its occurrence can be used to identify aquifer settings vulnerable to contamination. In this study, multivariate Weights of Evidence (WofE) and Logistic Regression (LR) methods, where the response variable is binary, were used to evaluate the role and importance of a number of explanatory variables associated with nitrate sources and occurrence in groundwater in the Milan District (central part of the Po Plain, Italy). The results of these models have been used to map the spatial variation of groundwater vulnerability to nitrate in the region, and we compare the similarities and differences of their spatial patterns and associated explanatory variables. We modify the standard WofE method used in previous groundwater vulnerability studies to a form analogous to that used in LR; this provides a framework to compare the results of both models and reduces the effect of sampling bias on the results of the standard WofE model. In addition, a nonlinear Generalized Additive Model has been used to extend the LR analysis. Both approaches improved discrimination of the standard WofE and LR models, as measured by the c-statistic. Groundwater vulnerability probability outputs, based on rank-order classification of the respective model results, were similar in spatial patterns and identified similar strong explanatory variables associated with nitrate source (population density as a proxy for sewage systems and septic sources) and nitrate occurrence (groundwater depth).

Risk assessment by dynamic representation of vulnerability, exploitation, and impact

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cam, Hasan

2015-05-01

Assessing and quantifying cyber risk accurately in real-time is essential to providing security and mission assurance in any system and network. This paper presents a modeling and dynamic analysis approach to assessing cyber risk of a network in real-time by representing dynamically its vulnerabilities, exploitations, and impact using integrated Bayesian network and Markov models. Given the set of vulnerabilities detected by a vulnerability scanner in a network, this paper addresses how its risk can be assessed by estimating in real-time the exploit likelihood and impact of vulnerability exploitation on the network, based on real-time observations and measurements over the network. The dynamic representation of the network in terms of its vulnerabilities, sensor measurements, and observations is constructed dynamically using the integrated Bayesian network and Markov models. The transition rates of outgoing and incoming links of states in hidden Markov models are used in determining exploit likelihood and impact of attacks, whereas emission rates help quantify the attack states of vulnerabilities. Simulation results show the quantification and evolving risk scores over time for individual and aggregated vulnerabilities of a network.

Mapping eco-environmental vulnerability patterns: An assessment framework based on remote sensing, GIS, and AHP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anh, N. K.; Liou, Y. A.; Li, M. H.

2016-12-01

The motivation for this study is assessment of the eco-environment vulnerability based on four independent determinants: hydro-meteorology, topography, land resources, and human activities. An assessment framework is proposed to assess the vulnerable eco-environment by using 16 variables with 6 of them constructed from Landsat 8 satellite images. The remaining variables were extracted from digital maps. Each variable was evaluated and spatially mapped with the aid of an analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and geographical information system (GIS). The Thua Thien - Hue Province that has been experiencing natural disasters and urbanization in the recent decades is selected as our study area. An eco-environmental vulnerability map is assorted into six vulnerable levels consisting of potential, slight, light, medium, heavy, and very heavy vulnerabilities, representing 14%, 27%, 17%, 26%, 13%, 3% of the study area, respectively. It is found that heavy and very heavy vulnerable areas appear mainly in the low and medium lands with high intensification of social-economic activities and often suffer from flooding. Tiny percentages of medium and heavy vulnerable levels occur in high land areas probably caused by agricultural practices in highlands, slash and burn cultivation and removal of natural forests with new plantation forests and these regions are usually influenced by landslides, flash flooding. Based on our results, three ecological zones requiring different development and protection solutions are proposed to restore local eco-environment toward sustainable development. Our findings support the idea that eco-environmental vulnerability is driven by anthropogenic processes and enhanced by natural disaster in the Thua Thien-Hue Province.

Development of AHPDST Vulnerability Indexing Model for Groundwater Vulnerability Assessment Using Hydrogeophysical Derived Parameters and GIS Application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mogaji, K. A.

2017-04-01

Producing a bias-free vulnerability assessment map model is significantly needed for planning a scheme of groundwater quality protection. This study developed a GIS-based AHPDST vulnerability index model for producing groundwater vulnerability model map in the hard rock terrain, Nigeria by exploiting the potentials of analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and Dempster-Shafer theory (DST) data mining models. The acquired borehole and geophysical data in the study area were processed to derive five groundwater vulnerability conditioning factors (GVCFs), namely recharge rate, aquifer transmissivity, hydraulic conductivity, transverse resistance and longitudinal conductance. The produced GVCFs' thematic maps were multi-criterially analyzed by employing the mechanisms of AHP and DST models to determine the normalized weight ( W) parameter for the GVCFs and mass function factors (MFFs) parameter for the GVCFs' thematic maps' class boundaries, respectively. Based on the application of the weighted linear average technique, the determined W and MFFs parameters were synthesized to develop groundwater vulnerability potential index (GVPI)-based AHPDST model algorithm. The developed model was applied to establish four GVPI mass/belief function indices. The estimates based on the applied GVPI belief function indices were processed in GIS environment to create prospective groundwater vulnerability potential index maps. The most representative of the resulting vulnerability maps (the GVPIBel map) was considered for producing the groundwater vulnerability potential zones (GVPZ) map for the area. The produced GVPZ map established 48 and 52% of the areal extent to be covered by the lows/moderate and highs vulnerable zones, respectively. The success and the prediction rates of the produced GVPZ map were determined using the relative operating characteristics technique to give 82.3 and 77.7%, respectively. The analyzed results reveal that the developed GVPI-based AHPDST model algorithm is

Quantitative assessment of Vulnerability of Forest ecosystem to Climate Change in Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Byun, J.; Lee, W.; Choi, S.; Oh, S.; Climate Change Model Team

2011-12-01

The purpose of this study was to assess the vulnerability of forest ecosystem to climate change in Korea using outputs of vegetation models(HyTAG and MC1) and socio-ecological indicators. Also it suggested adaptation strategies in forest management through analysis of three vulnerability components: exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. For the model simulation of past years(1971-2000), the climatic data was prepared by the Korea Meteorological Administration(KMA). In addition, for the future simulation, the Fifth-Generation NCAR/Penn State Mesoscale Model(MM5) coupling with atmosphere-ocean circulation model(ECHO-G) provide the future climatic data under the A1B scenarios. HyTAG (Hydrological and Thermal Analogy Groups), korean model of forest distribution on a regional-scale, could show extent of sensitivity and adaptive capacity in connection with changing frequency and changing direction of vegetation. MC1 model could provide variation and direction of NPP(Net Primary Production) and SCS(Soil Carbon Storage). In addition, the sensitivity and adaptation capacity were evaluated for each. Besides indicators from models, many other indicators such as financial affairs and number of officers were included in the vulnerability components. As a result of the vulnerability assessment, south western part and Je-ju island of Korea had relatively high vulnerability. This finding is considered to come from a distinctively adaptative capacity. Using these results, we could propose actions against climate change and develop decision making systems on forest management.

Early vulnerabilities for psychiatric disorders in elementary schoolchildren from four Brazilian regions.

PubMed

Paula, Cristiane S; Mari, Jair J; Bordin, Isabel Altenfelder Santos; Miguel, Euripedes C; Fortes, Isabela; Barroso, Natalia; Rohde, Luis Augusto; Coutinho, Evandro Silva Freire

2018-05-01

The purpose of the study is to identify early vulnerabilities for psychiatric disorders among Brazilian elementary school children, controlling for familial and community adversities. This is a cross-sectional study examining the association between child psychiatric disorders and potential early vulnerabilities (disability, low intellectual quotient, and negative dimensions of the temperament trait self-directedness (low resourcefulness, low purposefulness, low enlightened second nature), controlling for the potential confounders: familial and community adversities. Four probabilistic samples of second-to-sixth grade students from public schools in four towns from different Brazilian regions (N = 1620). The following instruments were applied: the K-SADS-PL (to assess child/adolescent psychiatric disorders); the Ten-Question Screen (to measure child disability); three structured questions used as proxy of self-directedness; and the reduced version of the WISC-III to measure IQ. To evaluate familial/community adversities: Self-Report Questionnaire-SRQ-20 (to assess maternal/primary caretaker anxiety/depression); questions derived from structured questionnaires (to measure child abuse, marital physical violence, neighborhood violence); Brazilian Association of Research Companies questionnaire (to evaluate poverty/socioeconomic status). Trained psychologists interviewed mothers/primary caretakers and evaluated children/adolescents individually. A final logistic regression model showed that children/adolescents with low resourcefulness, low purposefulness, low enlightened second nature, lower IQ and disability were more likely to present any child psychiatric disorders. Early vulnerabilities such as low IQ, presence of disability, and dimensions of temperament were associated with psychiatric disorders among Brazilian elementary school children, after controlling for familial and ecological confounders. These early vulnerabilities should be considered in mental

6 CFR 27.240 - Review and approval of security vulnerability assessments.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 6 Domestic Security 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Review and approval of security vulnerability... of security vulnerability assessments. (a) Review and Approval. The Department will review and approve in writing all Security Vulnerability Assessments that satisfy the requirements of § 27.215...

[Study on the risk assessment method of regional groundwater pollution].

PubMed

Yang, Yan; Yu, Yun-Jiang; Wang, Zong-Qing; Li, Ding-Long; Sun, Hong-Wei

2013-02-01

Based on the boundary elements of system risk assessment, the regional groundwater pollution risk assessment index system was preliminarily established, which included: regional groundwater specific vulnerability assessment, the regional pollution sources characteristics assessment and the health risk assessment of regional featured pollutants. The three sub-evaluation systems were coupled with the multi-index comprehensive method, the risk was characterized with the Spatial Analysis of ArcMap, and a new method to evaluate regional groundwater pollution risk that suitable for different parts of natural conditions, different types of pollution was established. Take Changzhou as an example, the risk of shallow groundwater pollution was studied with the new method, and found that the vulnerability index of groundwater in Changzhou is high and distributes unevenly; The distribution of pollution sources is concentrated and has a great impact on groundwater pollution risks; Influenced by the pollutants and pollution sources, the values of health risks are high in the urban area of Changzhou. The pollution risk of shallow groundwater is high and distributes unevenly, and distributes in the north of the line of Anjia-Xuejia-Zhenglu, the center of the city and the southeast, where the human activities are more intense and the pollution sources are intensive.

The assessment of vulnerability to natural disasters in China by using the DEA method

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wei Yiming; Fan Ying; Lu Cong

2004-05-01

China has been greatly affected by natural disasters, so that it is of great importance to analyze the impact of natural disasters on national economy. Usually, the frequency of disasters or absolute loss inflicted by disasters is the first priority to be considered, while the capability of regions to overcome disasters is ignored. The concept of vulnerability is used to measure the capability to overcome disasters in different regions with distinctive economies. Traditional methods for vulnerability analysis calculate sub-indices based on disaster frequency, loss, the economic impact and the population of each region, and then add the sub-indices to getmore » a composite index for regional vulnerability. But those methods are sensitive to the weights selected for sub-indices when multi-indexes are added up to get an index of total vulnerability. The analytic results are less convincing because of the subjectivity of different weighting methods. A data envelopment analysis (DEA)-based model for analysis of regional vulnerability to natural disasters is presented here to improve upon the traditional method. This paper systematically describes the DEA method to evaluate the relative severity of disasters in each region. A model for regional vulnerability analysis is developed, based on the annual governmental statistics from 1989 to 2000. The regional vulnerabilities in China's mainland are illustrated as a case study, and a new method for the classification of regional vulnerability to natural disasters in China is proposed.« less

Energy Vulnerability Assessment for the US Pacific Islands. Technical Appendix 2

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fesharaki, F.; Rizer, J.P.; Greer, L.S.

1994-05-01

The study, Energy Vulnerability Assessment of the US Pacific Islands, was mandated by the Congress of the United States as stated in House Resolution 776-220 of 1992, Section 1406. The resolution states that the US Secretary of Energy shall conduct a study of the implications of the unique vulnerabilities of the insular areas to an oil supply disruption. Such study shall outline how the insular areas shall gain access to vital oil supplies during times of national emergency. The resolution defines insular areas as the US Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Guam, American Samoa, the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands,more » and Palau. The US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico are not included in this report. The US Department of Energy (USDOE) has broadened the scope of the study contained in the House Resolution to include emergency preparedness and response strategies which would reduce vulnerability to an oil supply disruption as well as steps to ameliorate adverse economic consequences. This includes a review of alternative energy technologies with respect to their potential for reducing dependence on imported petroleum. USDOE has outlined the four tasks of the energy vulnerability assessment as the following: (1) for each island, determine crude oil and refined product demand/supply, and characterize energy and economic infrastructure; (2) forecast global and regional oil trade flow patterns, energy demand/supply, and economic activities; (3) formulate oil supply disruption scenarios and ascertain the general and unique vulnerabilities of these islands to oil supply disruptions; and (4) outline emergency preparedness and response options to secure oil supplies in the short run, and reduce dependence on imported oil in the longer term.« less

Region 9 - Social Vulnerability Index

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The Social Vulnerability Index is derived from the 2000 US Census data. The fields included are percent minority, median household income, age (under 18 and over 64), population without a high school diploma, linguistically isolated households, and single female head of households with own children under 18 (single moms). The data is at the block group level. Each field for each block group is assigned an index score of 0-3, based on whether the value of that dataset falls in the top quartile (score=3), second quartile (score=2), third quartile (score=1), or bottom quartile (score=0). The scores for each field are then added together to assign a comprehensive score to each block group (0-21). The highest scores are block groups that have the highest percentage of sensitive populations (highest percent minority, lowest per capita income, highest percent of population under 18 and over 64, highest percentage of population without a high school degree, highest percent of linguistically isolated households, and highest percent of single female head of households). Zoe Heller of the US EPA Region 9's Communities and Ecosystems Division, is responsible for the design and development of the Social Vulnerability Index data set.

Free and Open Source Software for land degradation vulnerability assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Imbrenda, Vito; Calamita, Giuseppe; Coluzzi, Rosa; D'Emilio, Mariagrazia; Lanfredi, Maria Teresa; Perrone, Angela; Ragosta, Maria; Simoniello, Tiziana

2013-04-01

Nowadays the role of FOSS software in scientific research is becoming increasingly important. Besides the important issues of reduced costs for licences, legality and security there are many other reasons that make FOSS software attractive. Firstly, making the code opened is a warranty of quality permitting to thousands of developers around the world to check the code and fix bugs rather than rely on vendors claims. FOSS communities are usually enthusiastic about helping other users for solving problems and expand or customize software (flexibility). Most important for this study, the interoperability allows to combine the user-friendly QGIS with the powerful GRASS-GIS and the richness of statistical methods of R in order to process remote sensing data and to perform geo-statistical analysis in one only environment. This study is focused on the land degradation (i.e. the reduction in the capacity of the land to provide ecosystem goods and services and assure its functions) and in particular on the estimation of the vulnerability levels in order to suggest appropriate policy actions to reduce/halt land degradation impacts, using the above mentioned software. The area investigated is the Basilicata Region (Southern Italy) where large natural areas are mixed with anthropized areas. To identify different levels of vulnerability we adopted the Environmentally Sensitive Areas (ESAs) model, based on the combination of indicators related to soil, climate, vegetation and anthropic stress. Such indicators were estimated by using the following data-sources: - Basilicata Region Geoportal to assess soil vulnerability; - DESERTNET2 project to evaluate potential vegetation vulnerability and climate vulnerability; - NDVI-MODIS satellite time series (2000-2010) with 250m resolution, available as 16-day composite from the NASA LP DAAC to characterize the dynamic component of vegetation; - Agricultural Census data 2010, Corine Land Cover 2006 and morphological information to assess

Developing a probability-based model of aquifer vulnerability in an agricultural region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Shih-Kai; Jang, Cheng-Shin; Peng, Yi-Huei

2013-04-01

SummaryHydrogeological settings of aquifers strongly influence the regional groundwater movement and pollution processes. Establishing a map of aquifer vulnerability is considerably critical for planning a scheme of groundwater quality protection. This study developed a novel probability-based DRASTIC model of aquifer vulnerability in the Choushui River alluvial fan, Taiwan, using indicator kriging and to determine various risk categories of contamination potentials based on estimated vulnerability indexes. Categories and ratings of six parameters in the probability-based DRASTIC model were probabilistically characterized according to the parameter classification methods of selecting a maximum estimation probability and calculating an expected value. Moreover, the probability-based estimation and assessment gave us an excellent insight into propagating the uncertainty of parameters due to limited observation data. To examine the prediction capacity of pollutants for the developed probability-based DRASTIC model, medium, high, and very high risk categories of contamination potentials were compared with observed nitrate-N exceeding 0.5 mg/L indicating the anthropogenic groundwater pollution. The analyzed results reveal that the developed probability-based DRASTIC model is capable of predicting high nitrate-N groundwater pollution and characterizing the parameter uncertainty via the probability estimation processes.

Assessment of vulnerability of forest ecosystems to climate change and adaptation planning in Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matin, M. A.; Chitale, V. S.

2016-12-01

Understanding ecosystem level vulnerability of forests and dependence of local communities on these ecosystems is a first step towards developing effective adaptation strategies. As forests are important components of livelihoods system for a large percentage of the population in the Himalayan region, they offer an important basis for creating and safeguarding more climate-resilient communities. Increased frequency, duration, and/or severity of drought and heat stress, changes in winter ecology, and pest and fire outbreaksunder climate change scenarios could fundamentally alter the composition, productivity and biogeography of forests affecting the potential ecosystem services offered and forest-based livelihoods. Hence, forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment to climate change and the development of a knowledgebase to identify and support relevant adaptation strategies is identified as an urgent need. Climate change vulnerability is measured as a function of exposure, sensitivity and the adaptive capacity of the system towards climate variability and extreme events. Effective adaptation to climate change depends on the availability of two important prerequisites: a) information on what, where, and how to adapt, and b) availability of resources to implement the adaptation measures. In the present study, we introduce the concept of two way multitier approach, which can support effective identification and implementation of adaptation measures in Nepal and the framework can be replicated in other countries in the HKH region. The assessment of overall vulnerability of forests comprises of two components: 1) understanding the relationship between exposure and sensitivity and positive feedback from adaptive capacity of forests; 2) quantifying the dependence of local communities on these ecosystems. We use climate datasets from Bioclim and biophysical products from MODIS, alongwith field datasets. We report that most of the forests along the high altitude areas and few

A systematic review of dynamics in climate risk and vulnerability assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jurgilevich, Alexandra; Räsänen, Aleksi; Groundstroem, Fanny; Juhola, Sirkku

2017-01-01

Understanding climate risk is crucial for effective adaptation action, and a number of assessment methodologies have emerged. We argue that the dynamics of the individual components in climate risk and vulnerability assessments has received little attention. In order to highlight this, we systematically reviewed 42 sub-national climate risk and vulnerability assessments. We analysed the assessments using an analytical framework with which we evaluated (1) the conceptual approaches to vulnerability and exposure used, (2) if current or future risks were assessed, and (3) if and how changes over time (i.e. dynamics) were considered. Of the reviewed assessments, over half addressed future risks or vulnerability; and of these future-oriented studies, less than 1/3 considered both vulnerability and exposure dynamics. While the number of studies that include dynamics is growing, and while all studies included socio-economic aspects, often only biophysical dynamics was taken into account. We discuss the challenges of assessing socio-economic and spatial dynamics, particularly the poor availability of data and methods. We suggest that future-oriented studies assessing risk dynamics would benefit from larger stakeholder involvement, discussion of the assessment purpose, the use of multiple methods, inclusion of uncertainty/sensitivity analyses and pathway approaches.

Modelling homogeneous regions of social vulnerability to malaria in Rwanda.

PubMed

Bizimana, Jean Pierre; Kienberger, Stefan; Hagenlocher, Michael; Twarabamenye, Emmanuel

2016-03-31

Despite the decline in malaria incidence due to intense interventions, potentials for malaria transmission persist in Rwanda. To eradicate malaria in Rwanda, strategies need to expand beyond approaches that focus solely on malaria epidemiology and also consider the socioeconomic, demographic and biological/disease-related factors that determine the vulnerability of potentially exposed populations. This paper analyses current levels of social vulnerability to malaria in Rwanda by integrating a set of weighted vulnerability indicators. The paper uses regionalisation techniques as a spatially explicit approach for delineating homogeneous regions of social vulnerability to malaria. This overcomes the limitations of administrative boundaries for modelling the trans-boundary social vulnerability to malaria. The utilised approach revealed high levels of social vulnerability to malaria in the highland areas of Rwanda, as well as in remote areas where populations are more susceptible. Susceptibility may be due to the populations' lacking the capacity to anticipate mosquito bites, or lacking resilience to cope with or recover from malaria infection. By highlighting the most influential indicators of social vulnerability to malaria, the applied approach indicates which vulnerability domains need to be addressed, and where appropriate interventions are most required. Interventions to improve the socioeconomic development in highly vulnerable areas could prove highly effective, and provide sustainable outcomes against malaria in Rwanda. This would ultimately increase the resilience of the population and their capacity to better anticipate, cope with, and recover from possible infection.

Tsunami vulnerability assessment mapping for the west coast of Peninsular Malaysia using a geographical information system (GIS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Najihah, R.; Effendi, D. M.; Hairunnisa, M. A.; Masiri, K.

2014-02-01

The catastrophic Indian Ocean tsunami of 26 December 2004 raised a number of questions for scientist and politicians on how to deal with the tsunami risk and assessment in coastal regions. This paper discusses the challenges in tsunami vulnerability assessment and presents the result of tsunami disaster mapping and vulnerability assessment study for West Coast of Peninsular Malaysia. The spatial analysis was carried out using Geographical Information System (GIS) technology to demarcate spatially the tsunami affected village's boundary and suitable disaster management program can be quickly and easily developed. In combination with other thematic maps such as road maps, rail maps, school maps, and topographic map sheets it was possible to plan the accessibility and shelter to the affected people. The tsunami vulnerability map was used to identify the vulnerability of villages/village population to tsunami. In the tsunami vulnerability map, the intensity of the tsunami was classified as hazard zones based on the inundation level in meter (contour). The approach produced a tsunami vulnerability assessment map consists of considering scenarios of plausible extreme, tsunami-generating events, computing the tsunami inundation levels caused by different events and scenarios and estimating the possible range of casualties for computing inundation levels. The study provides an interactive means to identify the tsunami affected areas after the disaster and mapping the tsunami vulnerable village before for planning purpose were the essential exercises for managing future disasters.

A Preliminary Assessment of Social Vulnerability in Ganga-Brahmaputra-Meghna Delta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hazra, Sugata; Islam, Nabiul

2017-04-01

The Ganga-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) Delta has a high population density and is exposed to rapid environmental changes making it one of the most stressed deltas in the world. The low-lying coastal areas of the Ganga-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) Delta comprise 19 coastal districts of Bangladesh and two districts in India with significant land areas within 5 meters of sea level has a population of more than 50 million people at an average population density of 1100 people/km2. This population is exposed to a range of hazards such as severe cyclones, coastal erosion, and salinization, exacerbated by climate change and subsidence which imply severe stress on the resource dependent community of this region. This situation is further complicated by poverty and limited social well-being such as poor access to education/ health/ drinking water/ sanitation facilities, and lack of food and energy security. Thus assessing social vulnerability can help to understand which communities are susceptible to environmental change and guide adaptation actions to address these threats. This preliminary study aims to construct a socio-economic index by assessing the social vulnerability of coastal communities of GBM Delta taking consistent and common secondary data from the Census of India and the Bangladesh Bureau of Statisticsand applyinga Principle Component Analysis(PCA) methodology. Several statistical tests like Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin (KMO) have also been used to assess the appropriateness of using PCA. Among the selected common indicators, five major components are found to explain majority of the total variation of social vulnerability across the delta: (1) poverty, (2) dependency ratio, (3) agriculture dependency, (4) lack of sanitation and (5) existence of mud houses. The most important observation is the existence of a social vulnerability gradient across the coast. In other words, socially marginalised and vulnerable communities are found on the Delta margin in both India and

[Assessment of eco-environmental vulnerability of Hainan Island, China].

PubMed

Huang, Bao-rong; Ouyang, Zhi-yun; Zhang, Hui-zhi; Zhang, Li-hua; Zheng, Hua

2009-03-01

Based on the assessment method of environmental vulnerability constructed by SOPAC and UNEP, this paper constructed an indicator system from three sub-themes including hazard, resistance, and damage to assess the eco-environmental vulnerability of Hainan Island. The results showed that Hainan Island was suffering a middling level eco-environmental hazard, and the main hazards came from some intensive human activities such as intensive agriculture, mass tourism, mining, and a mass of solid wastes thrown by islanders and tourists. Some geographical characters such as larger land area, larger altitude range, integrated geographical form, and abundant habitat types endowed Hainan Island higher resistance to environmental hazards. However, disturbed by historical accumulative artificial and natural hazards, the Island ecosystem had showed serious ecological damage, such as soil degradation and biodiversity loss. Comprehensively considered hazard, resistance, damage, and degradation, the comprehensive environmental vulnerability of the Island was at a middling level. Some indicators showed lower vulnerability, but some showed higher vulnerability.

Cyber / Physical Security Vulnerability Assessment Integration

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

MacDonald, Douglas G.; Simpkins, Bret E.

Abstract Both physical protection and cyber security domains offer solutions for the discovery of vulnerabilities through the use of various assessment processes and software tools. Each vulnerability assessment (VA) methodology provides the ability to identify and categorize vulnerabilities, and quantifies the risks within their own areas of expertise. Neither approach fully represents the true potential security risk to a site and/or a facility, nor comprehensively assesses the overall security posture. The technical approach to solving this problem was to identify methodologies and processes that blend the physical and cyber security assessments, and develop tools to accurately quantify the unaccounted formore » risk. SMEs from both the physical and the cyber security domains developed the blending methodologies, and cross trained each other on the various aspects of the physical and cyber security assessment processes. A local critical infrastructure entity volunteered to host a proof of concept physical/cyber security assessment, and the lessons learned have been leveraged by this effort. The four potential modes of attack an adversary can use in approaching a target are; Physical Only Attack, Cyber Only Attack, Physical Enabled Cyber Attack, and the Cyber Enabled Physical Attack. The Physical Only and the Cyber Only pathway analysis are two of the most widely analyzed attack modes. The pathway from an off-site location to the desired target location is dissected to ensure adversarial activity can be detected and neutralized by the protection strategy, prior to completion of a predefined task. This methodology typically explores a one way attack from the public space (or common area) inward towards the target. The Physical Enabled Cyber Attack and the Cyber Enabled Physical Attack are much more intricate. Both scenarios involve beginning in one domain to affect change in the other, then backing outward to take advantage of the reduced system effectiveness

Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for Idaho National Laboratory

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Christopher P. Ischay; Ernest L. Fossum; Polly C. Buotte

2014-10-01

The University of Idaho (UI) was asked to participate in the development of a climate change vulnerability assessment for Idaho National Laboratory (INL). This report describes the outcome of that assessment. The climate change happening now, due in large part to human activities, is expected to continue in the future. UI and INL used a common framework for assessing vulnerability that considers exposure (future climate change), sensitivity (system or component responses to climate), impact (exposure combined with sensitivity), and adaptive capacity (capability of INL to modify operations to minimize climate change impacts) to assess vulnerability. Analyses of climate change (exposure)more » revealed that warming that is ongoing at INL will continue in the coming decades, with increased warming in later decades and under scenarios of greater greenhouse gas emissions. Projections of precipitation are more uncertain, with multi model means exhibiting somewhat wetter conditions and more wet days per year. Additional impacts relevant to INL include estimates of more burned area and increased evaporation and transpiration, leading to reduced soil moisture and plant growth.« less

Flood Vulnerability Assessment Map

EIA Publications

Maps of energy infrastructure with real-time storm and emergency information by fuel type and by state. Flood hazard information from FEMA has been combined with EIA's energy infrastructure layers as a tool to help state, county, city, and private sector planners assess which key energy infrastructure assets are vulnerable to rising sea levels, storm surges, and flash flooding. Note that flood hazard layers must be zoomed-in to street level before they become visible.

A Vulnerability Assessment of Fish and Invertebrates to Climate Change on the Northeast U.S. Continental Shelf.

PubMed

Hare, Jonathan A; Morrison, Wendy E; Nelson, Mark W; Stachura, Megan M; Teeters, Eric J; Griffis, Roger B; Alexander, Michael A; Scott, James D; Alade, Larry; Bell, Richard J; Chute, Antonie S; Curti, Kiersten L; Curtis, Tobey H; Kircheis, Daniel; Kocik, John F; Lucey, Sean M; McCandless, Camilla T; Milke, Lisa M; Richardson, David E; Robillard, Eric; Walsh, Harvey J; McManus, M Conor; Marancik, Katrin E; Griswold, Carolyn A

2016-01-01

Climate change and decadal variability are impacting marine fish and invertebrate species worldwide and these impacts will continue for the foreseeable future. Quantitative approaches have been developed to examine climate impacts on productivity, abundance, and distribution of various marine fish and invertebrate species. However, it is difficult to apply these approaches to large numbers of species owing to the lack of mechanistic understanding sufficient for quantitative analyses, as well as the lack of scientific infrastructure to support these more detailed studies. Vulnerability assessments provide a framework for evaluating climate impacts over a broad range of species with existing information. These methods combine the exposure of a species to a stressor (climate change and decadal variability) and the sensitivity of species to the stressor. These two components are then combined to estimate an overall vulnerability. Quantitative data are used when available, but qualitative information and expert opinion are used when quantitative data is lacking. Here we conduct a climate vulnerability assessment on 82 fish and invertebrate species in the Northeast U.S. Shelf including exploited, forage, and protected species. We define climate vulnerability as the extent to which abundance or productivity of a species in the region could be impacted by climate change and decadal variability. We find that the overall climate vulnerability is high to very high for approximately half the species assessed; diadromous and benthic invertebrate species exhibit the greatest vulnerability. In addition, the majority of species included in the assessment have a high potential for a change in distribution in response to projected changes in climate. Negative effects of climate change are expected for approximately half of the species assessed, but some species are expected to be positively affected (e.g., increase in productivity or move into the region). These results will inform

A Vulnerability Assessment of Fish and Invertebrates to Climate Change on the Northeast U.S. Continental Shelf

PubMed Central

Hare, Jonathan A.; Morrison, Wendy E.; Nelson, Mark W.; Stachura, Megan M.; Teeters, Eric J.; Griffis, Roger B.; Alexander, Michael A.; Scott, James D.; Alade, Larry; Bell, Richard J.; Chute, Antonie S.; Curti, Kiersten L.; Curtis, Tobey H.; Kircheis, Daniel; Kocik, John F.; Lucey, Sean M.; McCandless, Camilla T.; Milke, Lisa M.; Richardson, David E.; Robillard, Eric; Walsh, Harvey J.; McManus, M. Conor; Marancik, Katrin E.; Griswold, Carolyn A.

2016-01-01

Climate change and decadal variability are impacting marine fish and invertebrate species worldwide and these impacts will continue for the foreseeable future. Quantitative approaches have been developed to examine climate impacts on productivity, abundance, and distribution of various marine fish and invertebrate species. However, it is difficult to apply these approaches to large numbers of species owing to the lack of mechanistic understanding sufficient for quantitative analyses, as well as the lack of scientific infrastructure to support these more detailed studies. Vulnerability assessments provide a framework for evaluating climate impacts over a broad range of species with existing information. These methods combine the exposure of a species to a stressor (climate change and decadal variability) and the sensitivity of species to the stressor. These two components are then combined to estimate an overall vulnerability. Quantitative data are used when available, but qualitative information and expert opinion are used when quantitative data is lacking. Here we conduct a climate vulnerability assessment on 82 fish and invertebrate species in the Northeast U.S. Shelf including exploited, forage, and protected species. We define climate vulnerability as the extent to which abundance or productivity of a species in the region could be impacted by climate change and decadal variability. We find that the overall climate vulnerability is high to very high for approximately half the species assessed; diadromous and benthic invertebrate species exhibit the greatest vulnerability. In addition, the majority of species included in the assessment have a high potential for a change in distribution in response to projected changes in climate. Negative effects of climate change are expected for approximately half of the species assessed, but some species are expected to be positively affected (e.g., increase in productivity or move into the region). These results will inform

Addressing uncertainty in vulnerability assessments [Chapter 5

Treesearch

Linda Joyce; Molly Cross; Evan Girvatz

2011-01-01

This chapter addresses issues and approaches for dealing with uncertainty specifically within the context of conducting climate change vulnerability assessments (i.e., uncertainties related to identifying and modeling the sensitivities, levels of exposure, and adaptive capacity of the assessment targets).

Empirical assessment of debris flow risk on a regional scale in Yunnan province, southwestern China.

PubMed

Liu, Xilin; Yue, Zhong Qi; Tham, Lesliw George; Lee, Chack Fan

2002-08-01

Adopting the definition suggested by the United Nations, a risk model for regional debris flow assessment is presented. Risk is defined as the product of hazard and vulnerability, both of which are necessary for evaluation. A Multiple-Factor Composite Assessment Model is developed for quantifying regional debris flow hazard by taking into account eight variables that contribute to debris flow magnitude and its frequency of occurrence. Vulnerability is a measure of the potential total losses. On a regional scale, it can be measured by the fixed asset, gross domestic product, land resources, population density, as well as the age, education, and wealth of the inhabitants. A nonlinear power-function assessment model that accounts for these indexes is developed. As a case study, the model is applied to compute the hazard, vulnerability and risk for each prefecture of the Yunnan province in southwestern China.

Tsunami vulnerability assessment in the western coastal belt in Sri Lanka

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ranagalage, M. M.

2017-12-01

26th December 2004 tsunami disaster has caused massive loss of life, damage to coastal infrastructures and disruption to economic activities in the coastal belt of Sri Lanka. Tsunami vulnerability assessment is a requirement for disaster risk and vulnerability reduction. It plays a major role in identifying the extent and level of vulnerabilities to disasters within the communities. There is a need for a clearer understanding of the disaster risk patterns and factors contributing to it in different parts of the coastal belt. The main objective of this study is to investigate tsunami vulnerability assessment of Moratuwa Municipal council area in Sri Lanka. We have selected Moratuwa area due to considering urbanization pattern and Tsunami hazards of the country. Different data sets such as one-meter resolution LiDAR data, orthophoto, population, housing data and road layer were employed in this study. We employed tsunami vulnerability model for 1796 housing units located there, for a tsunami scenario with a maximum run-up 8 meters. 86% of the total land area affected by the tsunami in 8 meters scenarios. Additionally, building population has been used to estimate population in different vulnerability levels. The result shows that 32% of the buildings have extremely critical vulnerability level, 46% have critical vulnerability level, 22% have high vulnerability level, and 1% have a moderate vulnerability. According to the population estimation model results, 18% reside building with extremely critical vulnerability, 43% with critical vulnerability, 36% with high vulnerability and 3% belong to moderate vulnerability level. The results of the study provide a clear picture of tsunami vulnerability. Outcomes of this analysis can use as a valuable tool for urban planners to assess the risk and extent of disaster risk reduction which could be achieved via suitable mitigation measures to manage the coastal belt in Sri Lanka.

Climate Change Impacts and Vulnerability Assessment in Industrial Complexes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, H. J.; Lee, D. K.

2016-12-01

Climate change has recently caused frequent natural disasters, such as floods, droughts, and heat waves. Such disasters have also increased industrial damages. We must establish climate change adaptation policies to reduce the industrial damages. It is important to make accurate vulnerability assessment to establish climate change adaptation policies. Thus, this study aims at establishing a new index to assess vulnerability level in industrial complexes. Most vulnerability indices have been developed with subjective approaches, such as the Delphi survey and the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP). The subjective approaches rely on the knowledge of a few experts, which provokes the lack of the reliability of the indices. To alleviate the problem, we have designed a vulnerability index incorporating objective approaches. We have investigated 42 industrial complex sites in Republic of Korea (ROK). To calculate weights of variables, we used entropy method as an objective method integrating the Delphi survey as a subjective method. Finally, we found our method integrating both subjective method and objective method could generate result. The integration of the entropy method enables us to assess the vulnerability objectively. Our method will be useful to establish climate change adaptation policies by reducing the uncertainties of the methods based on the subjective approaches.

Participatory flood vulnerability assessment: a multi-criteria approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Madruga de Brito, Mariana; Evers, Mariele; Delos Santos Almoradie, Adrian

2018-01-01

This paper presents a participatory multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) approach for flood vulnerability assessment while considering the relationships between vulnerability criteria. The applicability of the proposed framework is demonstrated in the municipalities of Lajeado and Estrela, Brazil. The model was co-constructed by 101 experts from governmental organizations, universities, research institutes, NGOs, and private companies. Participatory methods such as the Delphi survey, focus groups, and workshops were applied. A participatory problem structuration, in which the modellers work closely with end users, was used to establish the structure of the vulnerability index. The preferences of each participant regarding the criteria importance were spatially modelled through the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and analytical network process (ANP) multi-criteria methods. Experts were also involved at the end of the modelling exercise for validation. The final product is a set of individual and group flood vulnerability maps. Both AHP and ANP proved to be effective for flood vulnerability assessment; however, ANP is preferred as it considers the dependences among criteria. The participatory approach enabled experts to learn from each other and acknowledge different perspectives towards social learning. The findings highlight that to enhance the credibility and deployment of model results, multiple viewpoints should be integrated without forcing consensus.

A support system for assessing local vulnerability to weather and climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coletti, Alex; Howe, Peter D.; Yarnal, Brent; Wood, Nathan J.

2013-01-01

The changing number and nature of weather- and climate-related natural hazards is causing more communities to need to assess their vulnerabilities. Vulnerability assessments, however, often require considerable expertise and resources that are not available or too expensive for many communities. To meet the need for an easy-to-use, cost-effective vulnerability assessment tool for communities, a prototype online vulnerability assessment support system was built and tested. This prototype tool guides users through a stakeholder-based vulnerability assessment that breaks the process into four easy-to-implement steps. Data sources are integrated in the online environment so that perceived risks—defined and prioritized qualitatively by users—can be compared and discussed against the impacts that past events have had on the community. The support system is limited in scope, and the locations of the case studies do not provide a sufficiently broad range of sample cases. The addition of more publically available hazard databases combined with future improvements in the support system architecture and software will expand opportunities for testing and fully implementing the support system.

Climate change vulnerability of native and alien freshwater fishes of California: a systematic assessment approach.

PubMed

Moyle, Peter B; Kiernan, Joseph D; Crain, Patrick K; Quiñones, Rebecca M

2013-01-01

Freshwater fishes are highly vulnerable to human-caused climate change. Because quantitative data on status and trends are unavailable for most fish species, a systematic assessment approach that incorporates expert knowledge was developed to determine status and future vulnerability to climate change of freshwater fishes in California, USA. The method uses expert knowledge, supported by literature reviews of status and biology of the fishes, to score ten metrics for both (1) current status of each species (baseline vulnerability to extinction) and (2) likely future impacts of climate change (vulnerability to extinction). Baseline and climate change vulnerability scores were derived for 121 native and 43 alien fish species. The two scores were highly correlated and were concordant among different scorers. Native species had both greater baseline and greater climate change vulnerability than did alien species. Fifty percent of California's native fish fauna was assessed as having critical or high baseline vulnerability to extinction whereas all alien species were classified as being less or least vulnerable. For vulnerability to climate change, 82% of native species were classified as highly vulnerable, compared with only 19% for aliens. Predicted climate change effects on freshwater environments will dramatically change the fish fauna of California. Most native fishes will suffer population declines and become more restricted in their distributions; some will likely be driven to extinction. Fishes requiring cold water (<22°C) are particularly likely to go extinct. In contrast, most alien fishes will thrive, with some species increasing in abundance and range. However, a few alien species will likewise be negatively affected through loss of aquatic habitats during severe droughts and physiologically stressful conditions present in most waterways during summer. Our method has high utility for predicting vulnerability to climate change of diverse fish species. It

Climate Change Vulnerability of Native and Alien Freshwater Fishes of California: A Systematic Assessment Approach

PubMed Central

Moyle, Peter B.; Kiernan, Joseph D.; Crain, Patrick K.; Quiñones, Rebecca M.

2013-01-01

Freshwater fishes are highly vulnerable to human-caused climate change. Because quantitative data on status and trends are unavailable for most fish species, a systematic assessment approach that incorporates expert knowledge was developed to determine status and future vulnerability to climate change of freshwater fishes in California, USA. The method uses expert knowledge, supported by literature reviews of status and biology of the fishes, to score ten metrics for both (1) current status of each species (baseline vulnerability to extinction) and (2) likely future impacts of climate change (vulnerability to extinction). Baseline and climate change vulnerability scores were derived for 121 native and 43 alien fish species. The two scores were highly correlated and were concordant among different scorers. Native species had both greater baseline and greater climate change vulnerability than did alien species. Fifty percent of California’s native fish fauna was assessed as having critical or high baseline vulnerability to extinction whereas all alien species were classified as being less or least vulnerable. For vulnerability to climate change, 82% of native species were classified as highly vulnerable, compared with only 19% for aliens. Predicted climate change effects on freshwater environments will dramatically change the fish fauna of California. Most native fishes will suffer population declines and become more restricted in their distributions; some will likely be driven to extinction. Fishes requiring cold water (<22°C) are particularly likely to go extinct. In contrast, most alien fishes will thrive, with some species increasing in abundance and range. However, a few alien species will likewise be negatively affected through loss of aquatic habitats during severe droughts and physiologically stressful conditions present in most waterways during summer. Our method has high utility for predicting vulnerability to climate change of diverse fish species. It

Assessment of composite index methods for agricultural vulnerability to climate change.

PubMed

Wiréhn, Lotten; Danielsson, Åsa; Neset, Tina-Simone S

2015-06-01

A common way of quantifying and communicating climate vulnerability is to calculate composite indices from indicators, visualizing these as maps. Inherent methodological uncertainties in vulnerability assessments, however, require greater attention. This study examines Swedish agricultural vulnerability to climate change, the aim being to review various indicator approaches for assessing agricultural vulnerability to climate change and to evaluate differences in climate vulnerability depending on the weighting and summarizing methods. The reviewed methods are evaluated by being tested at the municipal level. Three weighting and summarizing methods, representative of climate vulnerability indices in general, are analysed. The results indicate that 34 of 36 method combinations differ significantly from each other. We argue that representing agricultural vulnerability in a single composite index might be insufficient to guide climate adaptation. We emphasize the need for further research into how to measure and visualize agricultural vulnerability and into how to communicate uncertainties in both data and methods. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The classification and assessment of vulnerability of man-land system of oasis city in arid area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Chao; Lei, Jun; Jin, Fengjun

2013-12-01

Oasis city system is the center of the man-land relationship in arid area and it is the most influential spatial and temporal multiple dynamic system. Oasis city system is not only the largest area where artificial disturbances occur at a regional scale but also the most concentrated area of human activity in arid area. In this study, we developed an applicable and convenient method to assess vulnerability of man-land system of oasis cities with vulnerability indicator system, respectively evaluating the sensitivity, adaptability and vulnerability of the eco-environment system, the economic system and the social system. The results showed that the sensitivity and vulnerability of oasis cities in Xinjiang, China have significant differences while their adaptability does little. In order to find the inherent differences in the vulnerability of oasis cities, triangle methodology has been adopted to divide Xinjiang oasis cities into five types. Some adaptive developing policies specific for individual cities are also proposed based on their vulnerability type and constraining factors.

Development of type transfer functions for regional-scale nonpoint source groundwater vulnerability assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stewart, Iris T.; Loague, Keith

2003-12-01

Groundwater vulnerability assessments of nonpoint source agrochemical contamination at regional scales are either qualitative in nature or require prohibitively costly computational efforts. By contrast, the type transfer function (TTF) modeling approach for vadose zone pesticide leaching presented here estimates solute concentrations at a depth of interest, only uses available soil survey, climatic, and irrigation information, and requires minimal computational cost for application. TTFs are soil texture based travel time probability density functions that describe a characteristic leaching behavior for soil profiles with similar soil hydraulic properties. Seven sets of TTFs, representing different levels of upscaling, were developed for six loam soil textural classes with the aid of simulated breakthrough curves from synthetic data sets. For each TTF set, TTFs were determined from a group or subgroup of breakthrough curves for each soil texture by identifying the effective parameters of the function that described the average leaching behavior of the group. The grouping of the breakthrough curves was based on the TTF index, a measure of the magnitude of the peak concentration, the peak arrival time, and the concentration spread. Comparison to process-based simulations show that the TTFs perform well with respect to mass balance, concentration magnitude, and the timing of concentration peaks. Sets of TTFs based on individual soil textures perform better for all the evaluation criteria than sets that span all textures. As prediction accuracy and computational cost increase with the number of TTFs in a set, the selection of a TTF set is determined by a given application.

Geospatial approach for assessment of biophysical vulnerability to agricultural drought and its intra-seasonal variations.

PubMed

Sehgal, Vinay Kumar; Dhakar, Rajkumar

2016-03-01

The study presents a methodology to assess and map agricultural drought vulnerability during main kharif crop season at local scale and compare its intra-seasonal variations. A conceptual model of vulnerability based on variables of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity was adopted, and spatial datasets of key biophysical factors contributing to vulnerability were generated using remote sensing and GIS for Rajasthan State of India. Hazard exposure was based on frequency and intensity of gridded standardized precipitation index (SPI). Agricultural sensitivity was based on soil water holding capacity as well as on frequency and intensity of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI)-derived trend adjusted vegetation condition index (VCITadj). Percent irrigated area was used as a measure of adaptive capacity. Agricultural drought vulnerability was derived separately for early, mid, late, and whole kharif seasons by composting rating of factors using linear weighting scheme and pairwise comparison of multi-criteria evaluation. The regions showing very low to extreme rating of hazard exposure, drought sensitivity, and agricultural vulnerability were identified at all four time scales. The results indicate that high to extreme vulnerability occurs in more than 50% of net sown area in the state and such areas mostly occur in western, central, and southern parts. The higher vulnerability is on account of non-irrigated croplands, moderate to low water holding capacity of sandy soils, resulting in higher sensitivity, and located in regions with high probability of rainfall deficiency. The mid and late season vulnerability has been found to be much higher than that during early and whole season. Significant correlation of vulnerability rating with food grain productivity, drought recurrence period, crop area damaged in year 2009 and socioeconomic indicator of human development index (HDI) proves the general soundness of methodology. Replication of this methodology

Integrated flash flood vulnerability assessment: Insights from East Attica, Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karagiorgos, Konstantinos; Thaler, Thomas; Heiser, Micha; Hübl, Johannes; Fuchs, Sven

2016-10-01

In the framework of flood risk assessment, vulnerability is a key concept to assess the susceptibility of elements at risk. Besides the increasing amount of studies on flash floods available, in-depth information on vulnerability in Mediterranean countries was missing so far. Moreover, current approaches in vulnerability research are driven by a divide between social scientists who tend to view vulnerability as representing a set of socio-economic factors, and natural scientists who view vulnerability in terms of the degree of loss to an element at risk. Further, vulnerability studies in response to flash flood processes are rarely answered in the literature. In order to close this gap, this paper implemented an integrated vulnerability approach focusing on residential buildings exposed to flash floods in Greece. In general, both physical and social vulnerability was comparable low, which is interpreted as a result from (a) specific building regulations in Greece as well as general design principles leading to less structural susceptibility of elements at risk exposed, and (b) relatively low economic losses leading to less social vulnerability of citizens exposed. The population show high risk awareness and coping capacity to response to natural hazards event and in the same time the impact of the events are quite low, because of the already high use of local protection measures. The low vulnerability score for East Attica can be attributed especially to the low physical vulnerability and the moderate socio-economic well-being of the area. The consequence is to focus risk management strategies mainly in the reduction of the social vulnerability. By analysing both physical and social vulnerability an attempt was made to bridge the gap between scholars from sciences and humanities, and to integrate the results of the analysis into the broader vulnerability context.

Using Bayesian networks to assess the vulnerability of Hawaiian terrestrial biota to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fortini, L.; Jacobi, J.; Price, J.; Vorsino, A.; Paxton, E.; Amidon, F.; 'Ohukani'ohi'a Gon, S., III; Koob, G.; Brink, K.; Burgett, J.; Miller, S.

2012-12-01

As the effects of climate change on individual species become increasingly apparent, there is a clear need for effective adaptation planning to prevent an increase in species extinctions worldwide. Given the limited understanding of species responses to climate change, vulnerability assessments and species distribution models (SDMs) have been two common tools used to jump-start climate change adaptation efforts. However, although these two approaches generally serve the same purpose of understanding species future responses to climate change, they have rarely mixed. In collaboration with research and management partners from federal, state and non-profit organizations, we are conducting a climate change vulnerability assessment for hundreds of plant and forest bird species of the Main Hawaiian Islands. This assessment is the first to comprehensively consider the potential threats of climate change to a significant portion of Hawaii's fauna and flora (over one thousand species considered) and thus fills a critical gap defined by natural resource scientists and managers in the region. We have devised a flexible approach that effectively integrates species distribution models into a vulnerability assessment framework that can be easily updated with improved models and data. This tailors our assessment approach to the Pacific Island reality of often limited and fragmented information on species and large future climate uncertainties, This vulnerability assessment is based on a Bayesian network-based approach that integrates multiple landscape (e.g., topographic diversity, dispersal barriers), species trait (e.g., generation length, fecundity) and expert-knowledge based information (e.g., capacity to colonize restored habitat) relevant to long-term persistence of species under climate change. Our presentation will highlight some of the results from our assessment but will mainly focus on the utility of the flexible approach we have developed and its potential

Multi-criteria evaluation of hydro-geological and anthropogenic parameters for the groundwater vulnerability assessment.

PubMed

Kumar, Prashant; Thakur, Praveen K; Bansod, Baban Ks; Debnath, Sanjit K

2017-10-16

Groundwater contamination assessment is a challenging task due to inherent complex dynamisms associated with the groundwater. DRASTIC is a very widely used rapid regional tool for the assessment of vulnerability of groundwater to contamination. DRASTIC has many lacunas in the form of subjectivities associated with weights and ratings of its hydro-geological parameters, and, therefore, the accuracy of the DRASTIC-based vulnerability map is questioned. The present study demonstrates the optimisation of the DRASTIC parameters along with a scientific consideration to the anthropogenic factors causing groundwater contamination. The resulting scientific consistent weights and ratings to DRASTIC parameters assist in the development of a very precise groundwater vulnerability map highlighting different zones of different gravity of contamination. One of the most important aspects of this study is that we have considered the impact of vadose zone in a very comprehensive manner by considering every sub-surface layer from the earth surface to the occurrence of groundwater. The study area for our experiment is Fatehgarh Sahib district of Punjab which is facing several groundwater issues.

Improving vulnerability models: lessons learned from a comparison between flood and earthquake assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Ruiter, Marleen; Ward, Philip; Daniell, James; Aerts, Jeroen

2017-04-01

In a cross-discipline study, an extensive literature review has been conducted to increase the understanding of vulnerability indicators used in both earthquake- and flood vulnerability assessments, and to provide insights into potential improvements of earthquake and flood vulnerability assessments. It identifies and compares indicators used to quantitatively assess earthquake and flood vulnerability, and discusses their respective differences and similarities. Indicators have been categorized into Physical- and Social categories, and further subdivided into (when possible) measurable and comparable indicators. Physical vulnerability indicators have been differentiated to exposed assets such as buildings and infrastructure. Social indicators are grouped in subcategories such as demographics, economics and awareness. Next, two different vulnerability model types have been described that use these indicators: index- and curve-based vulnerability models. A selection of these models (e.g. HAZUS) have been described, and compared on several characteristics such as temporal- and spatial aspects. It appears that earthquake vulnerability methods are traditionally strongly developed towards physical attributes at an object scale and used in vulnerability curve models, whereas flood vulnerability studies focus more on indicators applied to aggregated land-use scales. Flood risk studies could be improved using approaches from earthquake studies, such as incorporating more detailed lifeline and building indicators, and developing object-based vulnerability curve assessments of physical vulnerability, for example by defining building material based flood vulnerability curves. Related to this, is the incorporation of time of the day based building occupation patterns (at 2am most people will be at home while at 2pm most people will be in the office). Earthquake assessments could learn from flood studies when it comes to the refined selection of social vulnerability indicators

Scenarios for coastal vulnerability assessment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nicholls, Robert J.; Woodroffe, Colin D.; Burkett, Virginia; Hay, John; Wong, Poh Poh; Nurse, Leonard; Wolanski, Eric; McLusky, Donald S.

2011-01-01

Coastal vulnerability assessments tend to focus mainly on climate change and especially on sea-level rise. Assessment of the influence of nonclimatic environmental change or socioeconomic change is less well developed and these drivers are often completely ignored. Given that the most profound coastal changes of the twentieth century due to nonclimate drivers are likely to continue through the twenty-first century, this is a major omission. It may result in not only overstating the importance of climate change but also overlooking significant interactions of climate change and other drivers. To support the development of policies relating to climate change and coastal management, integrated assessments of climatic change in coastal areas are required, including the effects of all the relevant drivers. This chapter explores the development of scenarios (or "plausible futures") of relevant climate and nonclimate drivers that can be used for coastal analysis, with an emphasis on the nonclimate drivers. It shows the importance of analyzing the impacts of climate change and sea-level rise in a broader context of coastal change and all its drivers. This will improve the analysis of impacts, key vulnerabilities, and adaptation needs and, hence, inform climate and coastal policy. Stakeholder engagement is important in the development of scenarios, and the underlying assumptions need to be explicit, transparent, and open to scientific debate concerning their uncertainties/realism and likelihood.

Spatial vulnerability units - expert-based spatial modelling of socio-economic vulnerability in the Salzach catchment, Austria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kienberger, S.; Lang, S.; Zeil, P.

2009-05-01

The assessment of vulnerability has moved to centre-stage of the debate between different scientific disciplines related to climate change and disaster risk management. Composed by a combination of social, economical, physical and environmental factors the assessment implies combining different domains as well as quantitative with qualitative data and makes it therefore a challenge to identify an integrated metric for vulnerability. In this paper we define vulnerability in the context of climate change, targeting the hazard "flood". The developed methodology is being tested in the Salzach river catchment in Austria, which is largely prone to floods. The proposed methodology allows the spatial quantification of vulnerability and the identification of vulnerability units. These units build upon the geon concept which acts as a framework for the regionalization of continuous spatial information according to defined parameters of homogeneity. Using geons, we are capable of transforming singular domains of information on specific systemic components to policy-relevant, conditioned information. Considering the fact that vulnerability is not directly measurable and due to its complex dimension and social construction an expert-based approach has been chosen. Established methodologies such as Multicriteria Decision Analysis, Delphi exercises and regionalization approaches are being integrated. The method not only enables the assessment of vulnerability independent from administrative boundaries, but also applies an aggregation mode which reflects homogenous vulnerability units. This supports decision makers to reflect on complex issues such as vulnerability. Next to that, the advantage is to decompose the units to their underlying domains. Feedback from disaster management experts indicates that the approach helps to improve the design of measures aimed at strengthening preparedness and mitigation. From this point of view, we reach a step closer towards validation of the

Flood Risk Vulnerability Assessment: What are the Main Factors? Hierarchization of The Main Factors at a Regional Scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jouannic, G.; Kolli, Z.; Legendre, T.; Marchetti, M.; Gastaud, P.; Gargani, J.; Lermet, R.; Augeard, C.; Felts, D.; Arki, F.

2015-12-01

Recent studies have shown that the national flood risk exposure is high in France, with one fourth of the total population and a third of jobs located in risk areas. In this context, a global vulnerability assessment methodology is currently being developed in France to bring adequate tools for local territories to manage flood risk. This study addresses the question of the quantification, the qualification and the choice of these vulnerability indicators for a given territory. This work aims to propose a classification of nearly 40 of these indicators in terms of their relative impacts on the risk level estimated on two territories: Chalon-sur-Saône (Saône river) Garonne estuary (Garonne and Dordogne rivers, and Atlantic ocean) Through these cases study, 3 different spatial scales have been compared: the Prés-Saint-Jean district inside Chalon (0.6 km²), the city of Ambès (28.8 km²) and Chalon with its suburbs (72.2 km²). A principal component analysis (PCA) was applied and indicated a threshold in terms of urban impacts between the different flood scenarios. On Chalon, the PCA discriminates 2 groups of flood and highlighted a threshold between T20 and T50. A partial least-square regression (PLS) was computed to make predictions on vulnerability indicators values modelled on new flood scenarios. Their results were is useful to identify the most relevant vulnerability indicators as a function of their flood exposure. These statistical analysis aims to highlight the relationship between a variable of exposure level (hydrologic impact: water levels and flow velocity) with spatialized vulnerability indicators in a 100 m grid (e.g., population, job, etc.). Finally, to get a hierarchy of variables depending on their impact on the risk level, an ANOVA was computed. The selection of variables was performed with a stepwise selection to assess contributions of each dependant variable on the F-statistic as they are added to or removed from the model.

Ecosystem Vulnerability Review: Proposal of an Interdisciplinary Ecosystem Assessment Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weißhuhn, Peter; Müller, Felix; Wiggering, Hubert

2018-06-01

To safeguard the sustainable use of ecosystems and their services, early detection of potentially damaging changes in functional capabilities is needed. To support a proper ecosystem management, the analysis of an ecosystem's vulnerability provide information on its weaknesses as well as on its capacity to recover after suffering an impact. However, the application of the vulnerability concept to ecosystems is still an emerging topic. After providing background on the vulnerability concept, we summarize existing ecosystem vulnerability research on the basis of a systematic literature review with a special focus on ecosystem type, disciplinary background, and more detailed definition of the ecosystem vulnerability components. Using the Web of ScienceTM Core Collection, we overviewed the literature from 1991 onwards but used the 5 years from 2011 to 2015 for an in-depth analysis, including 129 articles. We found that ecosystem vulnerability analysis has been applied most notably in conservation biology, climate change research, and ecological risk assessments, pinpointing a limited spreading across the environmental sciences. It occurred primarily within marine and freshwater ecosystems. To avoid confusion, we recommend using the unambiguous term ecosystem vulnerability rather than ecological, environmental, population, or community vulnerability. Further, common ground has been identified, on which to define the ecosystem vulnerability components exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. We propose a framework for ecosystem assessments that coherently connects the concepts of vulnerability, resilience, and adaptability as different ecosystem responses. A short outlook on the possible operationalization of the concept by ecosystem vulnerabilty indices, and a conclusion section complete the review.

Ecosystem Vulnerability Review: Proposal of an Interdisciplinary Ecosystem Assessment Approach.

PubMed

Weißhuhn, Peter; Müller, Felix; Wiggering, Hubert

2018-06-01

To safeguard the sustainable use of ecosystems and their services, early detection of potentially damaging changes in functional capabilities is needed. To support a proper ecosystem management, the analysis of an ecosystem's vulnerability provide information on its weaknesses as well as on its capacity to recover after suffering an impact. However, the application of the vulnerability concept to ecosystems is still an emerging topic. After providing background on the vulnerability concept, we summarize existing ecosystem vulnerability research on the basis of a systematic literature review with a special focus on ecosystem type, disciplinary background, and more detailed definition of the ecosystem vulnerability components. Using the Web of Science TM Core Collection, we overviewed the literature from 1991 onwards but used the 5 years from 2011 to 2015 for an in-depth analysis, including 129 articles. We found that ecosystem vulnerability analysis has been applied most notably in conservation biology, climate change research, and ecological risk assessments, pinpointing a limited spreading across the environmental sciences. It occurred primarily within marine and freshwater ecosystems. To avoid confusion, we recommend using the unambiguous term ecosystem vulnerability rather than ecological, environmental, population, or community vulnerability. Further, common ground has been identified, on which to define the ecosystem vulnerability components exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. We propose a framework for ecosystem assessments that coherently connects the concepts of vulnerability, resilience, and adaptability as different ecosystem responses. A short outlook on the possible operationalization of the concept by ecosystem vulnerabilty indices, and a conclusion section complete the review.

[Research advances in vulnerability assessment of natural ecosystem response to climate change].

PubMed

Zhao, Hui-xia; Wu, Shao-hong; Jiang, Lu-guang

2007-02-01

Climate change with global warming as the sign has been caught great attention by the governments, international organizations, and scientists in the world. Human society and natural ecosystem are both exposed to climate change, and more and more people are waked up by its increasing harm. Vulnerability analysis and assessment are the key and basis for adapting and mitigating climate change, being the highlight in the research fields of climate change and ecology in recent years. The vulnerability assessment of climate change is being carried out in various research fields and on different scales, and much progress has been made. This paper introduced the concept of vulnerability, and summarized the research progress in vulnerability assessment of climate change, with the focus on the frame and methodology of vulnerability assessment of natural ecosystem response to climate change. The existed problems and future prospects in this research area were also discussed.

Vulnerability Assessments and Resilience Planning at Federal Sites

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Moss, Richard H.; Blohm, Andrew; Delgado, Alison

2016-02-01

U.S. government agencies are now directed to assess the vulnerability of their operations and facilities to climate change and to develop adaptation plans to increase their resilience. Specific guidance on methods is still evolving based on the many different available frameworks. This technical paper synthesizes lessons and insights from a series of research case studies conducted by the investigators at facilities of the U.S. Departments of Energy and Defense. The paper provides a framework of steps for climate vulnerability assessments at Federal facilities and elaborates on three sets of methods required for assessments, regardless of the detailed framework used. Inmore » a concluding section, the paper suggests a roadmap to further develop methods to support agencies in preparing for climate change.« less

Assessing the Impacts of Decadal Socio-Agro-Hydro Climatic Variations on Agricultural Vulnerability over India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohanty, M. P.; Sharma, T.; Ghosh, S.; Karmakar, S.

2017-12-01

Among both rice and wheat producing countries, India holds one of the major global shares in terms of production. However, with rising population, economic variability, and increasing food demand, it has become indispensable to strategically assess the food security of the nation, particularly under changing climatic conditions. This can be achieved by improving knowledge on the impacts of climate change on crop growth and yield through understanding the current status of agricultural vulnerability and quantifying its decadal changes. The present research focuses on assessing the observed decadal changes in agricultural vulnerability over India, at a district-scale. In the study, the deliberation of multiple climatic, hydrologic, agricultural indicators will majorly facilitate evaluating their direct/indirect influence on the crop production. In addition, a set of socio-economic indicators will also be considered to understand the attribution of these factors on the change in agricultural vulnerability. Here, these indicators will be integrated into a multivariate data envelopment analysis (DEA) framework to derive relative efficiency of each unit or district in crop production, which will be further transformed into a well-grounded agricultural vulnerability map. It has become essential to understand the influence of these indicators on agriculture, given that the extended periods of excessive/no rainfall or high/low temperature can alter the water cycle and hence cause stress on the agroecosystem. Likewise, change in the population density, main and marginal cultivators, main and marginal agriculture labours, improvement in management practices, or increase in power supply for agricultural use, can directly affect the food security of the region. Hence, this study will undoubtedly assist the decision-makers/strategists by highlighting the agriculturally vulnerable regions over India. Consequently, it will reassure the farmers to define bottom-up approaches in

Vulnerability Assessments and Resilience Planning at Federal Facilities. Preliminary Synthesis of Project

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Moss, R. H.; Blohm, A. J.; Delgado, A.

2015-08-15

U.S. government agencies are now directed to assess the vulnerability of their operations and facilities to climate change and to develop adaptation plans to increase their resilience. Specific guidance on methods is still evolving based on the many different available frameworks. Agencies have been experimenting with these frameworks and approaches. This technical paper synthesizes lessons and insights from a series of research case studies conducted by the investigators at facilities of the U.S. Department of Energy and the Department of Defense. The purpose of the paper is to solicit comments and feedback from interested program managers and analysts before finalmore » conclusions are published. The paper describes the characteristics of a systematic process for prioritizing needs for adaptation planning at individual facilities and examines requirements and methods needed. It then suggests a framework of steps for vulnerability assessments at Federal facilities and elaborates on three sets of methods required for assessments, regardless of the detailed framework used. In a concluding section, the paper suggests a roadmap to further develop methods to support agencies in preparing for climate change. The case studies point to several preliminary conclusions; (1) Vulnerability assessments are needed to translate potential changes in climate exposure to estimates of impacts and evaluation of their significance for operations and mission attainment, in other words into information that is related to and useful in ongoing planning, management, and decision-making processes; (2) To increase the relevance and utility of vulnerability assessments to site personnel, the assessment process needs to emphasize the characteristics of the site infrastructure, not just climate change; (3) A multi-tiered framework that includes screening, vulnerability assessments at the most vulnerable installations, and adaptation design will efficiently target high-risk sites and

Enhancement of global flood damage assessments using building material based vulnerability curves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Englhardt, Johanna; de Ruiter, Marleen; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen

2017-04-01

This study discusses the development of an enhanced approach for flood damage and risk assessments using vulnerability curves that are based on building material information. The approach draws upon common practices in earthquake vulnerability assessments, and is an alternative for land-use or building occupancy approach in flood risk assessment models. The approach is of particular importance for studies where there is a large variation in building material, such as large scale studies or studies in developing countries. A case study of Ethiopia is used to demonstrate the impact of the different methodological approaches on direct damage assessments due to flooding. Generally, flood damage assessments use damage curves for different land-use or occupancy types (i.e. urban or residential and commercial classes). However, these categories do not necessarily relate directly to vulnerability of damage by flood waters. For this, the construction type and building material may be more important, as is used in earthquake risk assessments. For this study, we use building material classification data of the PAGER1 project to define new building material based vulnerability classes for flood damage. This approach will be compared to the widely applied land-use based vulnerability curves such as used by De Moel et al. (2011). The case of Ethiopia demonstrates and compares the feasibility of this novel flood vulnerability method on a country level which holds the potential to be scaled up to a global level. The study shows that flood vulnerability based on building material also allows for better differentiation between flood damage in urban and rural settings, opening doors to better link to poverty studies when such exposure data is available. Furthermore, this new approach paves the road to the enhancement of multi-risk assessments as the method enables the comparison of vulnerability across different natural hazard types that also use material-based vulnerability curves

Combining landscape variables and species traits can improve the utility of climate change vulnerability assessments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nadeau, Christopher P.; Fuller, Angela K.

2016-01-01

Conservation organizations worldwide are investing in climate change vulnerability assessments. Most vulnerability assessment methods focus on either landscape features or species traits that can affect a species vulnerability to climate change. However, landscape features and species traits likely interact to affect vulnerability. We compare a landscape-based assessment, a trait-based assessment, and an assessment that combines landscape variables and species traits for 113 species of birds, herpetofauna, and mammals in the northeastern United States. Our aim is to better understand which species traits and landscape variables have the largest influence on assessment results and which types of vulnerability assessments are most useful for different objectives. Species traits were most important for determining which species will be most vulnerable to climate change. The sensitivity of species to dispersal barriers and the species average natal dispersal distance were the most important traits. Landscape features were most important for determining where species will be most vulnerable because species were most vulnerable in areas where multiple landscape features combined to increase vulnerability, regardless of species traits. The interaction between landscape variables and species traits was important when determining how to reduce climate change vulnerability. For example, an assessment that combines information on landscape connectivity, climate change velocity, and natal dispersal distance suggests that increasing landscape connectivity may not reduce the vulnerability of many species. Assessments that include landscape features and species traits will likely be most useful in guiding conservation under climate change.

Drought vulnerability assessment: The case of wheat farmers in Western Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zarafshani, Kiumars; Sharafi, Lida; Azadi, Hossein; Hosseininia, Gholamhossein; De Maeyer, Philippe; Witlox, Frank

2012-12-01

Drought, as a natural and slow-onset phenomenon, creates numerous damages to agricultural communities. As a drought prone area in the Middle East, Iran has currently launched a crisis management approach to mitigate the harmful impacts of drought. However, thus far studies indicate that effective drought management strategies should be designed based upon vulnerability management which can increase farmers' ability to challenge the impacts. The purpose of this study was to assess drought vulnerability across three drought intensities (very high, extremely high, and critical) areas in Western Iran. Accordingly, a survey study was applied and 370 wheat farmers who all experienced drought during 2007-2009 were selected through a multi-stage stratified random sampling method. Face to face interviews were used to collect data on vulnerability indices from the farmers. Me-Bar and Valdez's vulnerability formula was applied to assess the vulnerability of wheat farmers during drought. Results revealed that the farmers' vulnerability is influenced mainly by economic, socio-cultural, psychological, technical, and infrastructural factors. The results also indicated that the farmers in Sarpole-Zahab township were most vulnerable compared to those in the Kermanshah township as the least vulnerable. Accordingly, some conclusions and recommendations are drawn for both policy-makers and practitioners who often must prioritize limited resources in the design vulnerability-reducing interventions.

Central Hardwoods ecosystem vulnerability assessment and synthesis: a report from the Central Hardwoods Climate Change Response Framework project

Treesearch

Leslie Brandt; Hong He; Louis Iverson; Frank R. Thompson; Patricia Butler; Stephen Handler; Maria Janowiak; P. Danielle Shannon; Chris Swanston; Matthew Albrecht; Richard Blume-Weaver; Paul Deizman; John DePuy; William D. Dijak; Gary Dinkel; Songlin Fei; D. Todd Jones-Farrand; Michael Leahy; Stephen Matthews; Paul Nelson; Brad Oberle; Judi Perez; Matthew Peters; Anantha Prasad; Jeffrey E. Schneiderman; John Shuey; Adam B. Smith; Charles Studyvin; John M. Tirpak; Jeffery W. Walk; Wen J. Wang; Laura Watts; Dale Weigel; Steve Westin

2014-01-01

The forests in the Central Hardwoods Region will be affected directly and indirectly by a changing climate over the next 100 years. This assessment evaluates the vulnerability of terrestrial ecosystems in the Central Hardwoods Region of Illinois, Indiana, and Missouri to a range of future climates. Information on current forest conditions, observed climate trends,...

Coastal erosion vulnerability and risk assessment focusing in tourism beach use.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alexandrakis, George

2016-04-01

It is well established that the global market for tourism services is a key source of economic growth. Especially among Mediterranean countries, the tourism sector is one of the principal sectors driving national economies. With the majority of the mass tourism activities concentrated around coastal areas, coastal erosion, inter alia, poses a significant threat to coastal economies that depend heavily on revenues from tourism. The economic implications of beach erosion were mainly focused in the cost of coastal protection measures, instead of the revenue losses from tourism. For this, the vulnerability of the coast to sea level rise and associated erosion, in terms of expected land loss and economic activity need to be identified. To achieve this, a joint environmental and economic evaluation approach of the problem can provide a managerial tool to mitigate the impact of beach erosion in tourism, through realistic cost-benefit scenarios for planning alternative protection measures. Such a multipurpose tool needs to consider social, economic and environmental factors, which relationships can be better understood when distributed and analyzed along the geographical space. The risk assessment is implemented through the estimation of the vulnerability and exposure variables of the coast in two scales. The larger scale estimates the vulnerability in a regional level, with the use environmental factors with the use of CVI. The exposure variable is estimated by the use of socioeconomic factors. Subsequently, a smaller scale focuses on highly vulnerable beaches with high social and economic value. The assessment of the natural processes to the environmental characteristics of the beach is estimated with the use of the Beach Vulnerability Index (BVI) method. As exposure variable, the value of beach width that is capitalized in revenues is implemented through a hedonic pricing model. In this econometric modelling, Beach Value is related with economic and environmental

Redox proteomic profiling of neuroketal-adducted proteins in human brain: Regional vulnerability at middle age increases in the elderly.

PubMed

Domínguez, Mayelín; de Oliveira, Eliandre; Odena, María Antonia; Portero, Manuel; Pamplona, Reinald; Ferrer, Isidro

2016-06-01

Protein lipoxidation was assessed in the parietal cortex (PC), frontal cortex (FC), and cingulate gyrus (CG) in middle-aged and old-aged individuals with no clinical manifestations of cognitive impairment, in order to increase understanding of regional brain vulnerability to oxidative damage during aging. Twenty-five lipoxidized proteins were identified in all the three regions although with regional specificities, by using redox proteomics to detect target proteins of neuroketals (NKT) adduction. The number of cases with NKT-adducted proteins was higher in old-aged individuals but most oxidized proteins were already present in middle-aged individuals. Differences in vulnerability to oxidation were dependent on the sub-cellular localization, secondary structure, and external exposition of certain amino acids. Lipoxidized proteins included those involved in energy metabolism, cytoskeleton, proteostasis, neurotransmission and O2/CO2, and heme metabolism. Total NKT and soluble oligomer levels were estimated employing slot-blot, and these were compared between age groups. Oligomers increased with age in PC and FC; NKT significantly increased with age in FC, whereas total NKT and oligomer levels were not modified in CG, thus highlighting differences in brain regional vulnerability with age. Oligomers significantly correlated with NKT levels in the three cortical regions, suggesting that protein NKT adduction parallels soluble oligomer formation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Assessing the vulnerability of Brazilian municipalities to the vectorial transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi using multi-criteria decision analysis.

PubMed

Vinhaes, Márcio Costa; de Oliveira, Stefan Vilges; Reis, Priscilleyne Ouverney; de Lacerda Sousa, Ana Carolina; Silva, Rafaella Albuquerque E; Obara, Marcos Takashi; Bezerra, Cláudia Mendonça; da Costa, Veruska Maia; Alves, Renato Vieira; Gurgel-Gonçalves, Rodrigo

2014-09-01

Despite the dramatic reduction in Trypanosoma cruzi vectorial transmission in Brazil, acute cases of Chagas disease (CD) continue to be recorded. The identification of areas with greater vulnerability to the occurrence of vector-borne CD is essential to prevention, control, and surveillance activities. In the current study, data on the occurrence of domiciliated triatomines in Brazil (non-Amazonian regions) between 2007 and 2011 were analyzed. Municipalities' vulnerability was assessed based on socioeconomic, demographic, entomological, and environmental indicators using multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA). Overall, 2275 municipalities were positive for at least one of the six triatomine species analyzed (Panstrongylus megistus, Triatoma infestans, Triatoma brasiliensis, Triatoma pseudomaculata, Triatoma rubrovaria, and Triatoma sordida). The municipalities that were most vulnerable to vector-borne CD were mainly in the northeast region and exhibited a higher occurrence of domiciliated triatomines, lower socioeconomic levels, and more extensive anthropized areas. Most of the 39 new vector-borne CD cases confirmed between 2001 and 2012 in non-Amazonian regions occurred within the more vulnerable municipalities. Thus, MCDA can help to identify the states and municipalities that are most vulnerable to the transmission of T. cruzi by domiciliated triatomines, which is critical for directing adequate surveillance, prevention, and control activities. The methodological approach and results presented here can be used to enhance CD surveillance in Brazil. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Spatial econometric model of natural disaster impacts on human migration in vulnerable regions of Mexico.

PubMed

Saldaña-Zorrilla, Sergio O; Sandberg, Krister

2009-10-01

Mexico's vast human and environmental diversity offers an initial framework for comprehending some of the prevailing great disparities between rich and poor. Its socio-economic constructed vulnerability to climatic events serves to expand this understanding. Based on a spatial econometric model, this paper tests the contribution of natural disasters to stimulating the emigration process in vulnerable regions of Mexico. Besides coping and adaptive capacity, it assesses the effects of economic losses due to disasters as well as the adverse production and trade conditions of the 1990s on emigration rates in 2000 at the municipality level. Weather-related disasters were responsible for approximately 80 per cent of economic losses in Mexico between 1980 and 2005, mostly in the agricultural sector, which continues to dominate many parts of the country. It is dramatic that this sector generates around only four per cent of gross domestic product but provides a livelihood to about one-quarter of the national population. It is no wonder, therefore, that most emigration from this country arises in vulnerable rural areas.

Probabilistic seismic vulnerability and risk assessment of stone masonry structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abo El Ezz, Ahmad

Earthquakes represent major natural hazards that regularly impact the built environment in seismic prone areas worldwide and cause considerable social and economic losses. The high losses incurred following the past destructive earthquakes promoted the need for assessment of the seismic vulnerability and risk of the existing buildings. Many historic buildings in the old urban centers in Eastern Canada such as Old Quebec City are built of stone masonry and represent un-measurable architectural and cultural heritage. These buildings were built to resist gravity loads only and generally offer poor resistance to lateral seismic loads. Seismic vulnerability assessment of stone masonry buildings is therefore the first necessary step in developing seismic retrofitting and pre-disaster mitigation plans. The objective of this study is to develop a set of probability-based analytical tools for efficient seismic vulnerability and uncertainty analysis of stone masonry buildings. A simplified probabilistic analytical methodology for vulnerability modelling of stone masonry building with systematic treatment of uncertainties throughout the modelling process is developed in the first part of this study. Building capacity curves are developed using a simplified mechanical model. A displacement based procedure is used to develop damage state fragility functions in terms of spectral displacement response based on drift thresholds of stone masonry walls. A simplified probabilistic seismic demand analysis is proposed to capture the combined uncertainty in capacity and demand on fragility functions. In the second part, a robust analytical procedure for the development of seismic hazard compatible fragility and vulnerability functions is proposed. The results are given by sets of seismic hazard compatible vulnerability functions in terms of structure-independent intensity measure (e.g. spectral acceleration) that can be used for seismic risk analysis. The procedure is very efficient for

[The assessment of vulnerability to floods in Guangdong province at district level].

PubMed

Zhu, Qi; Liu, Tao; Zhang, Yong-hui; Luo, Yuan; Wei, Yao; Xiao, Jian-peng; Zeng, Si-qing; Ma, Wen-jun

2012-11-01

To evaluate the vulnerability to floods in Guangdong province at district level. Data were collected from the sixth census, the 2010 Statistical Yearbook of Guangdong, the 2010 Health Statistics Yearbook of Guangdong and China Disease Prevention and Control information systems, etc. The weight of each indicator was determined based on subjective method and objective method respectively; and finally the results of the two methods were compared. 13 indicators were selected for the assessment of vulnerability to floods, including 6 sensitivity indicators, 5 adaptability indicators and 2 exposure indicators. Indicators with large weight (subjective weight/objective weight) were the proportion of population older than 65 years old (0.31/0.30), the proportion of population older than 65 years old (0.16/0.23), infant mortality rate (0.18/0.20), the total Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita (0.33/0.21), the proportion of illiterate in the population older than 15 years old (0.19/0.28), history frequency of floods (0.75/0.75). The mean vulnerability index (VI) calculated by subjective method was 0.35 with the standard deviation of 0.10; the mean vulnerability index calculated by objective method was 0.31 with the standard deviation of 0.08. The two weighting methods showed consistent results of vulnerability index (ICC = 0.975, P < 0.01). VI of most districts dropped in the interval of 0.30 - 0.39. Districts with subjective VI > 0.50 or objective VI > 0.40 should pay more attention to floods, including parts of the coastal areas, Beijiang River Basin, the eastern tributary area of Dongjiang River and the northern part of Pearl River Delta. Dapu district of Meizhou (0.55/0.45), Dianbai district and Maogang district of Maoming (0.54/0.48) were most vulnerable. Districts of Heyuan, Dongguan, Zhaoqing and Huizhou were less vulnerable, Yuancheng district of Heyuan showed least vulnerable to floods (0.15/0.12) followed by Dongguan (0.18/0.16), Duanzhou district (0

Physically-Based Assessment of Intrinsic Groundwater Resource Vulnerability in AN Urban Catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graf, T.; Therrien, R.; Lemieux, J.; Molson, J. W.

2013-12-01

Several methods exist to assess intrinsic groundwater (re)source vulnerability for the purpose of sustainable groundwater management and protection. However, several methods are empirical and limited in their application to specific types of hydrogeological systems. Recent studies suggest that a physically-based approach could be better suited to provide a general, conceptual and operational basis for groundwater vulnerability assessment. A novel method for physically-based assessment of intrinsic aquifer vulnerability is currently under development and tested to explore the potential of an integrated modelling approach, combining groundwater travel time probability and future scenario modelling in conjunction with the fully integrated HydroGeoSphere model. To determine the intrinsic groundwater resource vulnerability, a fully coupled 2D surface water and 3D variably-saturated groundwater flow model in conjunction with a 3D geological model (GoCAD) has been developed for a case study of the Rivière Saint-Charles (Québec/Canada) regional scale, urban watershed. The model has been calibrated under transient flow conditions for the hydrogeological, variably-saturated subsurface system, coupled with the overland flow zone by taking into account monthly recharge variation and evapotranspiration. To better determine the intrinsic groundwater vulnerability, two independent approaches are considered and subsequently combined in a simple, holistic multi-criteria-decision analyse. Most data for the model comes from an extensive hydrogeological database for the watershed, whereas data gaps have been complemented via field tests and literature review. The subsurface is composed of nine hydrofacies, ranging from unconsolidated fluvioglacial sediments to low permeability bedrock. The overland flow zone is divided into five major zones (Urban, Rural, Forest, River and Lake) to simulate the differences in landuse, whereas the unsaturated zone is represented via the model

Assessing and managing freshwater ecosystems vulnerable to global change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Angeler, David G.; Allen, Craig R.; Birge, Hannah E.; Drakare, Stina; McKie, Brendan G.; Johnson, Richard K.

2014-01-01

Freshwater ecosystems are important for global biodiversity and provide essential ecosystem services. There is consensus in the scientific literature that freshwater ecosystems are vulnerable to the impacts of environmental change, which may trigger irreversible regime shifts upon which biodiversity and ecosystem services may be lost. There are profound uncertainties regarding the management and assessment of the vulnerability of freshwater ecosystems to environmental change. Quantitative approaches are needed to reduce this uncertainty. We describe available statistical and modeling approaches along with case studies that demonstrate how resilience theory can be applied to aid decision-making in natural resources management. We highlight especially how long-term monitoring efforts combined with ecological theory can provide a novel nexus between ecological impact assessment and management, and the quantification of systemic vulnerability and thus the resilience of ecosystems to environmental change.

Revealing the cerebral regions and networks mediating vulnerability to depression: oxidative metabolism mapping of rat brain.

PubMed

Harro, Jaanus; Kanarik, Margus; Kaart, Tanel; Matrov, Denis; Kõiv, Kadri; Mällo, Tanel; Del Río, Joaquin; Tordera, Rosa M; Ramirez, Maria J

2014-07-01

The large variety of available animal models has revealed much on the neurobiology of depression, but each model appears as specific to a significant extent, and distinction between stress response, pathogenesis of depression and underlying vulnerability is difficult to make. Evidence from epidemiological studies suggests that depression occurs in biologically predisposed subjects under impact of adverse life events. We applied the diathesis-stress concept to reveal brain regions and functional networks that mediate vulnerability to depression and response to chronic stress by collapsing data on cerebral long term neuronal activity as measured by cytochrome c oxidase histochemistry in distinct animal models. Rats were rendered vulnerable to depression either by partial serotonergic lesion or by maternal deprivation, or selected for a vulnerable phenotype (low positive affect, low novelty-related activity or high hedonic response). Environmental adversity was brought about by applying chronic variable stress or chronic social defeat. Several brain regions, most significantly median raphe, habenula, retrosplenial cortex and reticular thalamus, were universally implicated in long-term metabolic stress response, vulnerability to depression, or both. Vulnerability was associated with higher oxidative metabolism levels as compared to resilience to chronic stress. Chronic stress, in contrast, had three distinct patterns of effect on oxidative metabolism in vulnerable vs. resilient animals. In general, associations between regional activities in several brain circuits were strongest in vulnerable animals, and chronic stress disrupted this interrelatedness. These findings highlight networks that underlie resilience to stress, and the distinct response to stress that occurs in vulnerable subjects. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An Assessment of Vulnerabilities for Ship-based Control Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-09-01

VULNERABILITIES FOR SHIP- BASED CONTROL SYSTEMS by Richard Bensing September 2009 Thesis Advisor: Karen Burke Co-Advisor: George Dinolt...COVERED Master’s Thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE: An Assessment of Vulnerabilities for Ship- based Control Systems 6. AUTHOR(S) Richard Bensing 5...soft underbelly. Computer- based control systems form the heart of the critical infrastructure, and these control systems are riddled with rampant

Study on the Groundwater Vulnerability Assessment in Sanjiang Plain in Northeast China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Y.; Tang, W. K.; Liu, C.

2012-12-01

The Sanjiang Plain is located in eastern part of China's Heilongjiang Province.It's total area is 109 000 km2, with cultivated land area being 3.6677 million hm2. It is a major national commodity grain base. Rice planting area in Sanjiang Plain has been increasing year by year. Groundwater exploitation is increasing rapidly as a result of rapid increase of paddy field area. It is necessary to research and analyze spatial diversity of groundwater pollution vulnerability for Sanjiang Plain, so as to fulfill the goal of integrated planning, rational utilization of land and water resource, avoiding or minimizing groundwater contamination, and protecting grain security of China. Based on the commonly used DRASTIC method internationally, and according to hydrogeology, land use and other characteristics of Sanjiang Plain, this paper establishes groundwater vulnerability assessment index system. Since the Sanjiang Plain is an area that gives priority to agriculture, and impact of agricultural land and agricultural activity on groundwater vulnerability can not be ignored. Two indicators of agricultural land use rate (L) and population density (P) are increased in the DRASTC index system, the remaining 5 indicators are groundwater depth (D), aquifer net recharge(R), aquifer media type (A), soil type(S), aquifer hydraulic conductivity (C). Taking ArcGis as a calculation analysis platform to assess groundwater vulnerability of the Sanjiang Plain, by using hierarchical analysis method of the fuzzy mathematics method to calculate each index weigh of evaluation vulnerability. This paper applies 6 levels of assessment standard as follows: vulnerability index DI <2 stands for not vulnerable; 2 vulnerable; 4< DI ≤ 5 stands for more vulnerable; 5vulnerable; 7vulnerable; DI> 8 stands for extremely vulnerable. Groundwater vulnerably contaminated area is delineated based on the groundwater vulnerability spatial

Dynamic relationships between age, amyloid-β deposition, and glucose metabolism link to the regional vulnerability to Alzheimer’s disease

PubMed Central

Madison, Cindee; Baker, Suzanne; Rabinovici, Gil; Jagust, William

2016-01-01

Abstract See Hansson and Gouras (doi:10.1093/aww146) for a scientific commentary on this article. Although some brain regions such as precuneus and lateral temporo-parietal cortex have been shown to be more vulnerable to Alzheimer’s disease than other areas, a mechanism underlying the differential regional vulnerability to Alzheimer’s disease remains to be elucidated. Using fluorodeoxyglucose and Pittsburgh compound B positron emission tomography imaging glucose metabolism and amyloid-β deposition, we tested whether and how life-long changes in glucose metabolism relate to amyloid-β deposition and Alzheimer’s disease-related hypometabolism. Nine healthy young adults (age range: 20–30), 96 cognitively normal older adults (age range: 61–96), and 20 patients with Alzheimer’s disease (age range: 50–90) were scanned using fluorodeoxyglucose and Pittsburgh compound B positron emission tomography. Among cognitively normal older subjects, 32 were further classified as amyloid-positive, with 64 as amyloid-negative. To assess the contribution of glucose metabolism to the regional vulnerability to amyloid-β deposition, we defined the highest and lowest metabolic regions in young adults and examined differences in amyloid deposition between these regions across groups. Two-way analyses of variance were conducted to assess regional differences in age and amyloid-β-related changes in glucose metabolism. Multiple regressions were applied to examine the association between amyloid-β deposition and regional glucose metabolism. Both region of interest and whole-brain voxelwise analyses were conducted to complement and confirm the results derived from the other approach. Regional differences in glucose metabolism between the highest and lowest metabolism regions defined in young adults (T = 12.85, P < 0.001) were maintained both in Pittsburgh compound B-negative cognitively normal older subjects (T = 6.66, P < 0.001) and Pittsburgh compound B-positive cognitively

Assessment of human-natural system characteristics influencing global freshwater supply vulnerability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Padowski, Julie C.; Gorelick, Steven M.; Thompson, Barton H.; Rozelle, Scott; Fendorf, Scott

2015-10-01

Global freshwater vulnerability is a product of environmental and human dimensions, however, it is rarely assessed as such. Our approach identifies freshwater vulnerability using four broad categories: endowment, demand, infrastructure, and institutions, to capture impacts on natural and managed water systems within the coupled human-hydrologic environment. These categories are represented by 19 different endogenous and exogenous characteristics affecting water supply vulnerability. By evaluating 119 lower per capita income countries (<10 725), we find that every nation experiences some form of vulnerability. Institutional vulnerability is experienced most commonly, occurring in 44 nations, and 23 countries suffer deficiencies in all four categories. Of these highly vulnerable countries, Jordan is the most vulnerable, reporting the greatest number of characteristics (5 of 19) at critical vulnerability levels, with Yemen and Djibouti nearly as vulnerable. Surprising similarities in vulnerability were also found among geographically disparate nations such as Vietnam, Sri Lanka, and Guatemala. Determining shared patterns of freshwater vulnerability provides insights into why water supply vulnerabilities are manifested in human-water systems at the national scale.

Climate Risk and Vulnerability in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico Region: Interactions with Spatial Population and Land Cover Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, R. S.; Levy, M.; Baptista, S.; Adamo, S.

2010-12-01

Vulnerability to climate variability and change will depend on dynamic interactions between different aspects of climate, land-use change, and socioeconomic trends. Measurements and projections of these changes are difficult at the local scale but necessary for effective planning. New data sources and methods make it possible to assess land-use and socioeconomic changes that may affect future patterns of climate vulnerability. In this paper we report on new time series data sets that reveal trends in the spatial patterns of climate vulnerability in the Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico Region. Specifically, we examine spatial time series data for human population over the period 1990-2000, time series data on land use and land cover over 2000-2009, and infant mortality rates as a proxy for poverty for 2000-2008. We compare the spatial trends for these measures to the distribution of climate-related natural disaster risk hotspots (cyclones, floods, landslides, and droughts) in terms of frequency, mortality, and economic losses. We use these data to identify areas where climate vulnerability appears to be increasing and where it may be decreasing. Regions where trends and patterns are especially worrisome include coastal areas of Guatemala and Honduras.

Vulnerability assessment to frost disaster in dieng volcanic highland using spatial multi-criteria evaluation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pradana, A.; Rahmanu, Y. A.; Prabaningrum, I.; Nurafifa, I.; Hizbaron, D. R.

2018-04-01

Dieng Volcanic Highland is one of frost disaster prone area which is very unique phenomenon in tropical region. Frost indicated by appearance of frozen dew or ice layer on the ground or vegetation surface due air inversion and cold temperatures during midnight in dry season. Appearance of frost significantly causes plant damage and losses on agricultural land, while the impacts were strongly influenced by level of vulnerability within agricultural communities. This study aims to analyze the impact of frost on agricultural land in Dieng, to identify characteristics of physical, social, economic vulnerability and coping capacity of agricultural communities to frost disaster in Dieng, and to estimate total vulnerability of frost disasters in Dieng through SMCE scenario. Research was conducted in Dieng Village, Wonosobo and Dieng Kulon Village, Banjarnegara. Method to assess vulnerability level is performed by Spatial Multi Criteria Evaluation (SMCE) method using ILWIS software through a combination of physical, social, and economic vulnerability regarding frost hazard, as well as coping capacity of farmers. Data collected by interview within different agricultural plots using questionnaire and in-depth interview method on frost affected agricultural land. Impact of frost mostly causes damage on potato agricultural land than any other types of commodities, such as carrot, leek or cabbage. Losses varies in range of 0 million to 55 million rupiah, at most events in range of 10 million to 15 million rupiah during frost season on July-August-September. Main factors determining vulnerability comes from crop losses, preparedness effort, and type of commodity. Agricultural land dominated by high level physical vulnerability (95.37 percent), high level social vulnerability (70.79 percent), moderate level economic vulnerability (79.23 percent) and moderate level coping capacity (73.18 percent). All five scenarios indicated that level of total vulnerability vary only from

Assessment of groundwater vulnerability to nitrates from agricultural sources using a GIS-compatible logic multicriteria model.

PubMed

Rebolledo, Boris; Gil, Antonia; Flotats, Xavier; Sánchez, José Ángel

2016-04-15

In the present study an overlay method to assess groundwater vulnerability is proposed. This new method based on multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) was developed and validated using an appropriate case study in Aragon area (NE Spain). The Vulnerability Index to Nitrates from Agricultural Sources (VINAS) incorporates a novel Logic Scoring of Preferences (LSP) approach, and it has been developed using public geographic information from the European Union. VINAS-LSP identifies areas with five categories of vulnerability, taking into account the hydrogeological and environmental characteristics of the territory as a whole. The resulting LSP map is a regional screening tool that can provide guidance on the potential risk of nitrate pollution, as well as highlight areas where specific research and farming planning policies are required. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Regulatory Guide on Conducting a Security Vulnerability Assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ek, David R.

This document will provide guidelines on conducting a security vulnerability assessment at a facility regulated by the Radiation Protection Centre. The guidelines provide a performance approach assess security effectiveness. The guidelines provide guidance for a review following the objectives outlined in IAEA NSS#11 for Category 1, 2, & 3 sources.

Investigation of drought-vulnerable regions in North Korea using remote sensing and cloud computing climate data.

PubMed

Yu, Jinhang; Lim, Joongbin; Lee, Kyoo-Seock

2018-02-08

Drought is one of the most severe natural disasters in the world and leads to serious challenges that affect both the natural environment and human societies. North Korea (NK) has frequently suffered from severe and prolonged droughts since the second half of the twentieth century. These droughts affect the growing conditions of agricultural crops, which have led to food shortages in NK. However, it is not easy to obtain ground data because NK is one of the most closed-off societies in the world. In this situation, remote sensing (RS) techniques and cloud computing climate data (CCCD) can be used for drought monitoring in NK. RS-derived drought indices and CCCD were used to determine the drought-vulnerable regions in the spring season in NK. After the results were compared and discussed, the following conclusions were derived: (1) 10.0% of the total area of NK is estimated to be a drought-vulnerable region. The most susceptible regions to drought appear in the eastern and western coastal regions, far from BaekDu-DaeGan (BDDG), while fewer drought regions are found near BDDG and the Nahngrim Mountains. The drought-vulnerable regions are the coastal regions of South Hamgyong Province, North Hamgyong Province, South Pyongan Province, and South Hwanghae Province. The latter region is the food basket of NK. (2) In terms of land cover, the drought-vulnerable regions mainly consisted of croplands and mixed forest.

Vulnerability to substance abuse and the risk of suicide in students of region 12 of islamic azad university.

PubMed

Monirpoor, Nader; Khoosfi, Helen; Gholamy Zarch, Morteza; Tamaddonfard, Mohsen; Tabatabaei Mir, Seyed Farzad; Mohammad Alipour, Maryam; Karimi, Yasamin

2014-06-01

Substance abuse prevalence and the number of suicides among university students is less than public population; however the sensitivity of society regarding the occurrence of such damages among students puts special emphasis on appraising these variables. More than 30% of Iranian students study in Islamic Azad University. The current research aimed to appraise the vulnerability of substance abuse and the risk of suicide in students of region 12 of Islamic Azad University. In the current study, 1053 students (606 boys and 447 girls) with the average age of 22.55 years were selected through stratified sampling from Karaj, Takestan, Qazvin and Qom branches of Islamic Azad University. In order to assess the variables, Mental Health Worksheet of Central Counseling Office of the Ministry Science, Research and Technology was utilized. Average, standard deviation, minimum and maximum scores in substance abuse vulnerability of the students in region 12 were measured as 36.28, 14.68, 11.22 and 92.87; and the same for risk of suicide were 31.29, 15.61, 7.93 and 96.30, respectively. Students in Qom branch were significantly less vulnerable to substance abuse and less exposed to the risk of suicide than their peers in Karaj, Qazvin and Takestan branches. Less significant possibility of substance abuse and risk of suicide in students of Qom branch in comparison with other branches could be due to numerous variables particularly their religious attitudes. Nevertheless the average of these variables among the students of region 12 were higher than the reported scores of their peers in the state universities which reflects the serious need for precise assessments and providing preventive services and mental health interventions.

REGIONAL ASSESSMENT OF AQUIFER VULNERABILITY AND SENSITIVITY IN THE CONTERMINOUS UNITED STATES

EPA Science Inventory

This report provides, in a generalized, largely graphic format, are presentation of ground-water vulnerability, precipitation distribution, population density, potential well yield, and aquifer sensitivity for each of the 48 conterminous states. Classification scheme is developed...

Assessing coastal wetland vulnerability to sea-level rise along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast: Gaps and opportunities for developing a coordinated regional sampling network.

PubMed

Osland, Michael J; Griffith, Kereen T; Larriviere, Jack C; Feher, Laura C; Cahoon, Donald R; Enwright, Nicholas M; Oster, David A; Tirpak, John M; Woodrey, Mark S; Collini, Renee C; Baustian, Joseph J; Breithaupt, Joshua L; Cherry, Julia A; Conrad, Jeremy R; Cormier, Nicole; Coronado-Molina, Carlos A; Donoghue, Joseph F; Graham, Sean A; Harper, Jennifer W; Hester, Mark W; Howard, Rebecca J; Krauss, Ken W; Kroes, Daniel E; Lane, Robert R; McKee, Karen L; Mendelssohn, Irving A; Middleton, Beth A; Moon, Jena A; Piazza, Sarai C; Rankin, Nicole M; Sklar, Fred H; Steyer, Greg D; Swanson, Kathleen M; Swarzenski, Christopher M; Vervaeke, William C; Willis, Jonathan M; Wilson, K Van

2017-01-01

Coastal wetland responses to sea-level rise are greatly influenced by biogeomorphic processes that affect wetland surface elevation. Small changes in elevation relative to sea level can lead to comparatively large changes in ecosystem structure, function, and stability. The surface elevation table-marker horizon (SET-MH) approach is being used globally to quantify the relative contributions of processes affecting wetland elevation change. Historically, SET-MH measurements have been obtained at local scales to address site-specific research questions. However, in the face of accelerated sea-level rise, there is an increasing need for elevation change network data that can be incorporated into regional ecological models and vulnerability assessments. In particular, there is a need for long-term, high-temporal resolution data that are strategically distributed across ecologically-relevant abiotic gradients. Here, we quantify the distribution of SET-MH stations along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast (USA) across political boundaries (states), wetland habitats, and ecologically-relevant abiotic gradients (i.e., gradients in temperature, precipitation, elevation, and relative sea-level rise). Our analyses identify areas with high SET-MH station densities as well as areas with notable gaps. Salt marshes, intermediate elevations, and colder areas with high rainfall have a high number of stations, while salt flat ecosystems, certain elevation zones, the mangrove-marsh ecotone, and hypersaline coastal areas with low rainfall have fewer stations. Due to rapid rates of wetland loss and relative sea-level rise, the state of Louisiana has the most extensive SET-MH station network in the region, and we provide several recent examples where data from Louisiana's network have been used to assess and compare wetland vulnerability to sea-level rise. Our findings represent the first attempt to examine spatial gaps in SET-MH coverage across abiotic gradients. Our analyses can be used

Multiple flood vulnerability assessment approach based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and coordinated development degree model.

PubMed

Yang, Weichao; Xu, Kui; Lian, Jijian; Bin, Lingling; Ma, Chao

2018-05-01

Flood is a serious challenge that increasingly affects the residents as well as policymakers. Flood vulnerability assessment is becoming gradually relevant in the world. The purpose of this study is to develop an approach to reveal the relationship between exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity for better flood vulnerability assessment, based on the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method (FCEM) and coordinated development degree model (CDDM). The approach is organized into three parts: establishment of index system, assessment of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity, and multiple flood vulnerability assessment. Hydrodynamic model and statistical data are employed for the establishment of index system; FCEM is used to evaluate exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity; and CDDM is applied to express the relationship of the three components of vulnerability. Six multiple flood vulnerability types and four levels are proposed to assess flood vulnerability from multiple perspectives. Then the approach is applied to assess the spatiality of flood vulnerability in Hainan's eastern area, China. Based on the results of multiple flood vulnerability, a decision-making process for rational allocation of limited resources is proposed and applied to the study area. The study shows that multiple flood vulnerability assessment can evaluate vulnerability more completely, and help decision makers learn more information about making decisions in a more comprehensive way. In summary, this study provides a new way for flood vulnerability assessment and disaster prevention decision. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Data related uncertainty in near-surface vulnerability assessments for agrochemicals in the San Joaquin Valley.

PubMed

Loague, Keith; Blanke, James S; Mills, Melissa B; Diaz-Diaz, Ricardo; Corwin, Dennis L

2012-01-01

Precious groundwater resources across the United States have been contaminated due to decades-long nonpoint-source applications of agricultural chemicals. Assessing the impact of past, ongoing, and future chemical applications for large-scale agriculture operations is timely for designing best-management practices to prevent subsurface pollution. Presented here are the results from a series of regional-scale vulnerability assessments for the San Joaquin Valley (SJV). Two relatively simple indices, the retardation and attenuation factors, are used to estimate near-surface vulnerabilities based on the chemical properties of 32 pesticides and the variability of both soil characteristics and recharge rates across the SJV. The uncertainties inherit to these assessments, derived from the uncertainties within the chemical and soil data bases, are estimated using first-order analyses. The results are used to screen and rank the chemicals based on mobility and leaching potential, without and with consideration of data-related uncertainties. Chemicals of historic high visibility in the SJV (e.g., atrazine, DBCP [dibromochloropropane], ethylene dibromide, and simazine) are ranked in the top half of those considered. Vulnerability maps generated for atrazine and DBCP, featured for their legacy status in the study area, clearly illustrate variations within and across the assessments. For example, the leaching potential is greater for DBCP than for atrazine, the leaching potential for DBCP is greater for the spatially variable recharge values than for the average recharge rate, and the leaching potentials for both DBCP and atrazine are greater for the annual recharge estimates than for the monthly recharge estimates. The data-related uncertainties identified in this study can be significant, targeting opportunities for improving future vulnerability assessments. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America

Social vulnerability of rural households to flood hazards in western mountainous regions of Henan province, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Delin; Li, Yue

2016-05-01

Evaluating social vulnerability is a crucial issue in risk and disaster management. In this study, a household social vulnerability index (HSVI) to flood hazards was developed and used to assess the social vulnerability of rural households in western mountainous regions of Henan province, China. Eight key indicators were identified using existing literature and discussions with experts from multiple disciplines and local farmers, and their weights were determined using principle component analysis (PCA) and an expert scoring method. The results showed that (1) the ratio of perennial work in other places, hazard-related training and illiteracy ratio (15+) were the most dominant factors of social vulnerability. (2) The numbers of high, moderate and low vulnerability households were 14, 64 and 16, respectively, which accounted for 14.9, 68.1 and 17.0 % of the total interviewed rural households, respectively. (3) The correlation coefficient between household social vulnerability scores and casualties in a storm flood in July 2010 was significant at 0.05 significance level (r = 0.748), which indicated that the selected indicators and their weights were valid. (4) Some mitigation strategies to reduce household social vulnerability to flood hazards were proposed, which included (1) improving the local residents' income and their disaster-related knowledge and evacuation skills, (2) developing emergency plans and carrying out emergency drills and training, (3) enhancing the accuracy of disaster monitoring and warning systems and (4) establishing a specific emergency management department and comprehensive rescue systems. These results can provide useful information for rural households and local governments to prepare, mitigate and respond to flood hazards, and the corresponding strategies can help local households to reduce their social vulnerability and improve their ability to resist flood hazard.

Coastal vulnerability assessment with the use of environmental and socio-economic indicators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alexandrakis, George; Petrakis, Stelios; Vousdoukas, Mixalis; Ghionis, George; Hatziyanni, Eleni; Kampanis, Nikolaos

2014-05-01

Climate change has significant repercussions on the natural environment, triggering obvious changes in the natural processes that have a severe socio-economic impact on the coastal zone; where a great number of human activities are concentrated. So far, the estimation of coastal vulnerability was based primarily on the natural processes and less on socio-economic variables, which would assist in the identification of vulnerable areas. The present investigation proposes a methodology to examine the vulnerability of a highly touristic area in the Island of Crete to an expected sea level rise of up to ~40 cm by the year 2100, according to the A1B scenario of IPCC 2007. The methodology includes the combination of socio-economic indicators into a GIS-based coastal vulnerability index for wave-induced erosion. This approach includes three sub-indices that contribute equally to the overall index. The sub-indices refer to coastal forcing, socio-economic and coastal characteristics. All variables are ranked on a 1-5 scale with 5 indicating higher vulnerability. The socio-economic sub-index includes, as indicators, the population of the study area, cultural heritage sites, transport networks, land use and protection measures. The coastal forcing sub-index includes the frequency of extreme events, while the Coastal Vulnerability Index includes the geological variables (coastal geomorphology, historical coastline changes, and regional coastal slope) and the variables representing the marine processes (relative sea level rise, mean significant wave height, and tidal range). The main difficulty for the estimation of the index lies in assessing and ranking the socio-economic indicators. The whole approach was tested and validated through field and desktop studies, using as a case study the Elouda bay, Crete Isl., an area of high cultural and economic value, which combines monuments from ancient and medieval times, with a very high touristic development since the 1970s.

Assessing the Relationship Between Social Vulnerability and Community Resilience to Hazards

PubMed Central

Bergstrand, Kelly; Brumback, Babette; Zhang, Yi

2017-01-01

This article contributes to the disaster literature by measuring and connecting two concepts that are highly related but whose relationship is rarely empirically evaluated: social vulnerability and community resilience. To do so, we measure community resilience and social vulnerability in counties across the United States and find a correlation between high levels of vulnerability and low levels of resilience, indicating that the most vulnerable counties also tend to be the least resilient. We also find regional differences in the distribution of community resilience and social vulnerability, with the West being particularly vulnerable while the Southeast is prone to low levels of resilience. By looking at both social vulnerability and community resilience, we are able to map communities’ social risks for harm from threats as well as their capacities for recovering and adapting in the aftermath of hazards. This provides a more complete portrait of the communities that might need the most assistance in emergency planning and response, as well as whether such interventions will need to be tailored toward reducing damage or finding the path to recovery. PMID:29276330

Assessing the Relationship Between Social Vulnerability and Community Resilience to Hazards.

PubMed

Bergstrand, Kelly; Mayer, Brian; Brumback, Babette; Zhang, Yi

2015-06-01

This article contributes to the disaster literature by measuring and connecting two concepts that are highly related but whose relationship is rarely empirically evaluated: social vulnerability and community resilience. To do so, we measure community resilience and social vulnerability in counties across the United States and find a correlation between high levels of vulnerability and low levels of resilience, indicating that the most vulnerable counties also tend to be the least resilient. We also find regional differences in the distribution of community resilience and social vulnerability, with the West being particularly vulnerable while the Southeast is prone to low levels of resilience. By looking at both social vulnerability and community resilience, we are able to map communities' social risks for harm from threats as well as their capacities for recovering and adapting in the aftermath of hazards. This provides a more complete portrait of the communities that might need the most assistance in emergency planning and response, as well as whether such interventions will need to be tailored toward reducing damage or finding the path to recovery.

Development and implementation of a Bayesian-based aquifer vulnerability assessment in Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Arthur, J.D.; Wood, H.A.R.; Baker, A.E.; Cichon, J.R.; Raines, G.L.

2007-01-01

The Florida Aquifer Vulnerability Assessment (FAVA) was designed to provide a tool for environmental, regulatory, resource management, and planning professionals to facilitate protection of groundwater resources from surface sources of contamination. The FAVA project implements weights-of-evidence (WofE), a data-driven, Bayesian-probabilistic model to generate a series of maps reflecting relative aquifer vulnerability of Florida's principal aquifer systems. The vulnerability assessment process, from project design to map implementation is described herein in reference to the Floridan aquifer system (FAS). The WofE model calculates weighted relationships between hydrogeologic data layers that influence aquifer vulnerability and ambient groundwater parameters in wells that reflect relative degrees of vulnerability. Statewide model input data layers (evidential themes) include soil hydraulic conductivity, density of karst features, thickness of aquifer confinement, and hydraulic head difference between the FAS and the watertable. Wells with median dissolved nitrogen concentrations exceeding statistically established thresholds serve as training points in the WofE model. The resulting vulnerability map (response theme) reflects classified posterior probabilities based on spatial relationships between the evidential themes and training points. The response theme is subjected to extensive sensitivity and validation testing. Among the model validation techniques is calculation of a response theme based on a different water-quality indicator of relative recharge or vulnerability: dissolved oxygen. Successful implementation of the FAVA maps was facilitated by the overall project design, which included a needs assessment and iterative technical advisory committee input and review. Ongoing programs to protect Florida's springsheds have led to development of larger-scale WofE-based vulnerability assessments. Additional applications of the maps include land-use planning

A new GIS-based tsunami risk evaluation: MeTHuVA (METU tsunami human vulnerability assessment) at Yenikapı, Istanbul

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cankaya, Zeynep Ceren; Suzen, Mehmet Lutfi; Yalciner, Ahmet Cevdet; Kolat, Cagil; Zaytsev, Andrey; Aytore, Betul

2016-07-01

Istanbul is a mega city with various coastal utilities located on the northern coast of the Sea of Marmara. At Yenikapı, there are critical vulnerable coastal utilities, structures, and active metropolitan life. Fishery ports, commercial ports, small craft harbors, passenger terminals of intercity maritime transportation, waterfront commercial and/or recreational structures with residential/commercial areas and public utility areas are some examples of coastal utilization that are vulnerable to marine disasters. Therefore, the tsunami risk in the Yenikapı region is an important issue for Istanbul. In this study, a new methodology for tsunami vulnerability assessment for areas susceptible to tsunami is proposed, in which the Yenikapı region is chosen as a case study. Available datasets from the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality and Turkish Navy are used as inputs for high-resolution GIS-based multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) evaluation of tsunami risk in Yenikapı. Bathymetry and topography database is used for high-resolution tsunami numerical modeling where the tsunami hazard, in terms of coastal inundation, is deterministically computed using the NAMI DANCE numerical code, considering earthquake worst case scenarios. In order to define the tsunami human vulnerability of the region, two different aspects, vulnerability at location and evacuation resilience maps were created using the analytical hierarchical process (AHP) method of MCDA. A vulnerability at location map is composed of metropolitan use, geology, elevation, and distance from shoreline layers, whereas an evacuation resilience map is formed by slope, distance within flat areas, distance to buildings, and distance to road networks layers. The tsunami risk map is then computed by the proposed new relationship which uses flow depth maps, vulnerability at location maps, and evacuation resilience maps.

Integrating Science and Management to Assess Forest Ecosystem Vulnerability to Climate Change

Treesearch

Leslie A. Brandt; Patricia R. Butler; Stephen D. Handler; Maria K. Janowiak; P. Danielle Shannon; Christopher W. Swanston

2017-01-01

We developed the ecosystem vulnerability assessment approach (EVAA) to help inform potential adaptation actions in response to a changing climate. EVAA combines multiple quantitative models and expert elicitation from scientists and land managers. In each of eight assessment areas, a panel of local experts determined potential vulnerability of forest ecosystems to...

Identifying regions vulnerable to habitat degradation under future irrigation scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Terrado, Marta; Sabater, Sergi; Acuña, Vicenç

2016-11-01

The loss and degradation of natural habitats is a primary cause of biodiversity decline. The increasing impacts of climate and land use change affect water availability, ultimately decreasing agricultural production. Areas devoted to irrigation have been increased to compensate this reduction, causing habitat and biodiversity losses, especially in regions undergoing severe water stress. These effects might intensify under global change, probably contributing to a decrease in habitat quality. We selected four European river basins across a gradient of water scarcity and irrigation agriculture. The habitat quality in the basins was assessed as a function of habitat suitability and threats under current and future global change scenarios of irrigation. Results revealed that the most threatened regions under future scenarios of global change were among those suffering of water scarcity and with bigger areas devoted to irrigation. Loss of habitat quality reached 10% in terrestrial and 25% in aquatic ecosystems under climate change scenarios involving drier conditions. The aquatic habitats were the most degraded in all scenarios, since they were affected by threats from both the terrestrial and the aquatic parts of the basin. By identifying in advance the regions most vulnerable to habitat and biodiversity loss, our approach can assist decision makers in deciding the conservation actions to be prioritized for mitigation and adaptation to the effects of climate change, particularly front the development of irrigation plans.

An Assessment of Vulnerability and Trade-offs of Dairy Farmers of India to Climate Variability and Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Radhakrishnan, Aparna; Gupta, Jancy; Ravindran, Dileepkumar

2017-04-01

The study aims at assessing the vulnerability and tradeoffs of dairy based livelihoods to Climate Variability and Change (CVC) in the Western Ghats ecosystem, India. For this purpose; data were aggregated to an overall Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI) to CVC underlying the principles of IPCC, using 40 indicators under 7 LVI components. Fussel framework was used for the nomenclature of vulnerable situation and trade-off between vulnerability components and milk production was calculated. Data were collected through participatory rural appraisal and personal interviews from 360 randomly selected dairy farmers of nine blocks from three states of Western Ghat region, complemented by thirty years of gridded weather data and livestock data. The LVI score of dairy based livelihoods of six taluks were negative. The data were normalized and then combined into three indices of sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity, which were then averaged with weights given using principal component analysis, to obtain the overall vulnerability index. Mann Whitney U test was used to find the significant difference between the taluks in terms of LVI and cumulative square root frequency method was used to categorise the farmers. Even though the taluks are geographically closer, there is significant difference in the LVI values of the regions. Results indicated that the Lanja taluks of Maharashtra is the most vulnerable having an overall LVI value -4.17 with 48% farmers falling in highly vulnerable category. Panel regression analysis reveals that there is significant synergy between average milk production and livestock, social network component and trade-off between natural disasters climate variability component of LVI. Policies for incentivizing the 'climate risk adaptation' costs for small and marginal farmers and livelihood infrastructure for mitigating risks and promoting grass root level innovations are necessary to sustain dairy farming of the region. Thus the research will

Vulnerability Assessment of Water Supply Systems: Status, Gaps and Opportunities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wheater, H. S.

2015-12-01

Conventional frameworks for assessing the impacts of climate change on water resource systems use cascades of climate and hydrological models to provide 'top-down' projections of future water availability, but these are subject to high uncertainty and are model and scenario-specific. Hence there has been recent interest in 'bottom-up' frameworks, which aim to evaluate system vulnerability to change in the context of possible future climate and/or hydrological conditions. Such vulnerability assessments are generic, and can be combined with updated information from top-down assessments as they become available. While some vulnerability methods use hydrological models to estimate water availability, fully bottom-up schemes have recently been proposed that directly map system vulnerability as a function of feasible changes in water supply characteristics. These use stochastic algorithms, based on reconstruction or reshuffling methods, by which multiple water supply realizations can be generated under feasible ranges of change in water supply conditions. The paper reports recent successes, and points to areas of future improvement. Advances in stochastic modeling and optimization can address some technical limitations in flow reconstruction, while various data mining and system identification techniques can provide possibilities to better condition realizations for consistency with top-down scenarios. Finally, we show that probabilistic and Bayesian frameworks together can provide a potential basis to combine information obtained from fully bottom-up analyses with projections available from climate and/or hydrological models in a fully integrated risk assessment framework for deep uncertainty.

Network Vulnerability Assessment of the U.S. Crude Pipeline Infrastructure

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-09-01

56 Clanton, “Oklahoma Oil Hub Helps Keep Oil Prices from Going Higher.” 57 Donald Furgeson, John Mahoney , and Brett Warfield...Vulnerability Assessment Matrix of the COTH.58 58 Furgeson, Mahoney , and Warfield, Security...Steinhäusler et al., “Security Risks to the Oil and Gas Industry: Terrorist Capabilities.” 71 Furgeson, Mahoney , and Warfield, Security Vulnerability

(Non-) robustness of vulnerability assessments to climate change: An application to New Zealand.

PubMed

Fernandez, Mario Andres; Bucaram, Santiago; Renteria, Willington

2017-12-01

Assessments of vulnerability to climate change are a key element to inform climate policy and research. Assessments based on the aggregation of indicators have a strong appeal for their simplicity but are at risk of over-simplification and uncertainty. This paper explores the non-robustness of indicators-based assessments to changes in assumptions on the degree of substitution or compensation between indicators. Our case study is a nationwide assessment for New Zealand. We found that the ranking of geographic areas is sensitive to different parameterisations of the aggregation function, that is, areas that are categorised as highly vulnerable may switch to the least vulnerable category even with respect to the same climate hazards and population groups. Policy implications from the assessments are then compromised. Though indicators-based approaches may help on identifying drivers of vulnerability, there are weak grounds to use them to recommend mitigation or adaptation decisions given the high level of uncertainty because of non-robustness. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Coastal vulnerability assessment of Olympic National Park to sea-level rise

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pendleton, Elizabeth A.; Hammar-Klose, Erika S.; Thieler, E. Robert; Williams, S. Jeffress

2004-01-01

A coastal vulnerability index (CVI) was used to map the relative vulnerability of the coast to future sea-level rise within Olympic National Park (OLYM), Washington. The CVI scores the following in terms of their physical contribution to sea-level rise-related coastal change: geomorphology, regional coastal slope, rate of relative sea-level rise, shoreline change rates, mean tidal range and mean wave height. The rankings for each variable were combined and an index value calculated for 1-minute grid cells covering the park. The CVI highlights those regions where the physical effects of sea-level rise might be the greatest. This approach combines the coastal system's susceptibility to change with its natural ability to adapt to changing environmental conditions, yielding a quantitative, although relative, measure of the park's natural vulnerability to the effects of sea-level rise. The CVI provides an objective technique for evaluation and long-term planning by scientists and park managers. The Olympic National Park coast consists of rocky headlands, pocket beaches, glacial-fluvial features, and sand and gravel beaches. The Olympic coastline that is most vulnerable to sea-level rise are beaches in gently sloping areas.

Flood hazard, vulnerability, and risk assessment for human life

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, T.; Chang, T.; Lai, J.; Hsieh, M.; Tan, Y.; Lin, Y.

2011-12-01

Flood risk assessment is an important issue for the countries suffering tropical cyclones and monsoon. Taiwan is located in the hot zone of typhoon tracks in the Western Pacific. There are three to five typhoons landing Taiwan every year. Typhoons and heavy rainfalls often cause inundation disaster rising with the increase of population and the development of social economy. The purpose of this study is to carry out the flood hazard, vulnerability and risk in term of human life. Based on the concept that flood risk is composed by flood hazard and vulnerability, a inundation simulation is performed to evaluate the factors of flood hazard for human life according to base flood (100-year return period). The flood depth, velocity and rising ratio are the three factors of flood hazards. Furthermore, the factors of flood vulnerability are identified in terms of human life that are classified into two main factors, residents and environment. The sub factors related to residents are the density of population and the density of vulnerable people including elders, youngers and disabled persons. The sub factors related to environment include the the number of building floors, the locations of buildings, the and distance to rescue center. The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is adopted to determine the weights of these factors. The risk matrix is applied to show the risk from low to high based on the evaluation of flood hazards and vulnerabilities. The Tseng-Wen River watershed is selected as the case study because a serious flood was induced by Typhoon Morakot in 2009, which produced a record-breaking rainfall of 2.361mm in 48 hours in the last 50 years. The results of assessing the flood hazard, vulnerability and risk in term of human life could improve the emergency operation for flood disaster to prepare enough relief goods and materials during typhoon landing.

Development and assessment of indices to determine stream fish vulnerability to climate change and habitat alteration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sievert, Nicholas A.; Paukert, Craig P.; Tsang, Yin-Phan; Infante, Dana M.

2016-01-01

measure of validation. Our indices classified species identified as being in need of conservation by the state of Missouri as highly vulnerable. The distribution of vulnerable species in Missouri showed consistent patterns between indices, with the more forest-dominated, groundwater fed streams in the Ozark subregion generally having higher numbers and proportions of vulnerable species per site than subregions that were agriculturally dominated with more overland flow. These results suggest that both indices will identify similar habitats as conservation action targets despite discrepancies in the classification of vulnerable species. Our vulnerability assessment provides a framework that can be refined and used in other regions.

Vulnerability assessment including tangible and intangible components in the index composition: An Amazon case study of flooding and flash flooding.

PubMed

Andrade, Milena Marília Nogueira de; Szlafsztein, Claudio Fabian

2018-07-15

The vulnerability of cities and communities in the Amazon to flooding and flash flooding is increasing. The effects of extreme events on populations vary across landscapes, causing vulnerability to differ spatially. Traditional vulnerability studies in Brazil and across the world have used the vulnerability index for the country and, more recently, municipality scales. The vulnerability dimensions are exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. For each of these dimensions, there is a group of indicators that constitutes a vulnerability index using quantitative data. Several vulnerability assessments have used sensitivity and exposure analyses and, recently, adaptive capacity has been considered. The Geographical Information Systems (GIS) analysis allows spatial regional modeling using quantitative vulnerability indicators. This paper presents a local-scale vulnerability assessment in an urban Amazonian area, Santarém City, using interdisciplinary methods. Data for exposure and sensitivity were gathered by remote sensing and census data, respectively. However, adaptive capacity refers to local capacities, whether infrastructural or not, and the latter were gathered by qualitative participatory methods. For the mixed data used to study adaptive capacity, we consider tangible components for countable infrastructure that can cope with hazards, and intangible components that reflect social activities based on risk perceptions and collective action. The results indicate that over 80% of the area is highly or moderately vulnerable to flooding and flash flooding. Exposure and adaptive capacity were determinants of the results. Lower values of adaptive capacity play a significant role in vulnerability enhancement. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Performance-based methodology for assessing seismic vulnerability and capacity of buildings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shibin, Lin; Lili, Xie; Maosheng, Gong; Ming, Li

2010-06-01

This paper presents a performance-based methodology for the assessment of seismic vulnerability and capacity of buildings. The vulnerability assessment methodology is based on the HAZUS methodology and the improved capacitydemand-diagram method. The spectral displacement ( S d ) of performance points on a capacity curve is used to estimate the damage level of a building. The relationship between S d and peak ground acceleration (PGA) is established, and then a new vulnerability function is expressed in terms of PGA. Furthermore, the expected value of the seismic capacity index (SCev) is provided to estimate the seismic capacity of buildings based on the probability distribution of damage levels and the corresponding seismic capacity index. The results indicate that the proposed vulnerability methodology is able to assess seismic damage of a large number of building stock directly and quickly following an earthquake. The SCev provides an effective index to measure the seismic capacity of buildings and illustrate the relationship between the seismic capacity of buildings and seismic action. The estimated result is compared with damage surveys of the cities of Dujiangyan and Jiangyou in the M8.0 Wenchuan earthquake, revealing that the methodology is acceptable for seismic risk assessment and decision making. The primary reasons for discrepancies between the estimated results and the damage surveys are discussed.

A relative vulnerability estimation of flood disaster using data envelopment analysis in the Dongting Lake region of Hunan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, C.-H.; Li, N.; Wu, L.-C.; Hu, A.-J.

2013-07-01

The vulnerability to flood disaster is addressed by a number of studies. It is of great importance to analyze the vulnerability of different regions and various periods to enable the government to make policies for distributing relief funds and help the regions to improve their capabilities against disasters, yet a recognized paradigm for such studies seems missing. Vulnerability is defined and evaluated through either physical or economic-ecological perspectives depending on the field of the researcher concerned. The vulnerability, however, is the core of both systems as it entails systematic descriptions of flood severities or disaster management units. The research mentioned often has a development perspective, and in this article we decompose the overall flood system into several factors: disaster driver, disaster environment, disaster bearer, and disaster intensity, and take the interaction mechanism among all factors as an indispensable function. The conditions of flood disaster components are demonstrated with disaster driver risk level, disaster environment stability level and disaster bearer sensitivity, respectively. The flood system vulnerability is expressed as vulnerability = f(risk, stability, sensitivity). Based on the theory, data envelopment analysis method (DEA) is used to detail the relative vulnerability's spatiotemporal variation of a flood disaster system and its components in the Dongting Lake region. The study finds that although a flood disaster system's relative vulnerability is closely associated with its components' conditions, the flood system and its components have a different vulnerability level. The overall vulnerability is not the aggregation of its components' vulnerability. On a spatial scale, zones central and adjacent to Dongting Lake and/or river zones are characterized with very high vulnerability. Zones with low and very low vulnerability are mainly distributed in the periphery of the Dongting Lake region. On a temporal

Vulnerability to Substance Abuse and the Risk of Suicide in Students of Region 12 of Islamic Azad University

PubMed Central

Monirpoor, Nader; Khoosfi, Helen; Gholamy Zarch, Morteza; Tamaddonfard, Mohsen; Tabatabaei Mir, Seyed Farzad; Mohammad Alipour, Maryam; Karimi, Yasamin

2014-01-01

Background: Substance abuse prevalence and the number of suicides among university students is less than public population; however the sensitivity of society regarding the occurrence of such damages among students puts special emphasis on appraising these variables. More than 30% of Iranian students study in Islamic Azad University. Objectives: The current research aimed to appraise the vulnerability of substance abuse and the risk of suicide in students of region 12 of Islamic Azad University. Patients and Methods: In the current study, 1053 students (606 boys and 447 girls) with the average age of 22.55 years were selected through stratified sampling from Karaj, Takestan, Qazvin and Qom branches of Islamic Azad University. In order to assess the variables, Mental Health Worksheet of Central Counseling Office of the Ministry Science, Research and Technology was utilized. Results: Average, standard deviation, minimum and maximum scores in substance abuse vulnerability of the students in region 12 were measured as 36.28, 14.68, 11.22 and 92.87; and the same for risk of suicide were 31.29, 15.61, 7.93 and 96.30, respectively. Students in Qom branch were significantly less vulnerable to substance abuse and less exposed to the risk of suicide than their peers in Karaj, Qazvin and Takestan branches. Conclusions: Less significant possibility of substance abuse and risk of suicide in students of Qom branch in comparison with other branches could be due to numerous variables particularly their religious attitudes. Nevertheless the average of these variables among the students of region 12 were higher than the reported scores of their peers in the state universities which reflects the serious need for precise assessments and providing preventive services and mental health interventions. PMID:25032157

6 CFR 27.240 - Review and approval of security vulnerability assessments.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... CHEMICAL FACILITY ANTI-TERRORISM STANDARDS Chemical Facility Security Program § 27.240 Review and approval of security vulnerability assessments. (a) Review and Approval. The Department will review and... 6 Domestic Security 1 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Review and approval of security vulnerability...

6 CFR 27.240 - Review and approval of security vulnerability assessments.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... CHEMICAL FACILITY ANTI-TERRORISM STANDARDS Chemical Facility Security Program § 27.240 Review and approval of security vulnerability assessments. (a) Review and Approval. The Department will review and... 6 Domestic Security 1 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Review and approval of security vulnerability...

6 CFR 27.240 - Review and approval of security vulnerability assessments.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... CHEMICAL FACILITY ANTI-TERRORISM STANDARDS Chemical Facility Security Program § 27.240 Review and approval of security vulnerability assessments. (a) Review and Approval. The Department will review and... 6 Domestic Security 1 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Review and approval of security vulnerability...

6 CFR 27.240 - Review and approval of security vulnerability assessments.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... CHEMICAL FACILITY ANTI-TERRORISM STANDARDS Chemical Facility Security Program § 27.240 Review and approval of security vulnerability assessments. (a) Review and Approval. The Department will review and... 6 Domestic Security 1 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Review and approval of security vulnerability...

Vulnerability Assessments in Support of the Climate Ready ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

As part of the Climate Ready Estuaries (CRE) program, the Global Change Research Program (GCRP) in the National Center for Environmental Assessment, Office of Research and Development at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has prepared this draft report exploring a new methodology for climate change vulnerability assessments using San Francisco Bay’s salt marsh and mudflat ecosystems as a demonstration. N/A

A climate change vulnerability assessment of California's at-risk birds.

PubMed

Gardali, Thomas; Seavy, Nathaniel E; DiGaudio, Ryan T; Comrack, Lyann A

2012-01-01

Conservationists must develop new strategies and adapt existing tools to address the consequences of anthropogenic climate change. To support statewide climate change adaptation, we developed a framework for assessing climate change vulnerability of California's at-risk birds and integrating it into the existing California Bird Species of Special Concern list. We defined climate vulnerability as the amount of evidence that climate change will negatively impact a population. We quantified climate vulnerability by scoring sensitivity (intrinsic characteristics of an organism that make it vulnerable) and exposure (the magnitude of climate change expected) for each taxon. Using the combined sensitivity and exposure scores as an index, we ranked 358 avian taxa, and classified 128 as vulnerable to climate change. Birds associated with wetlands had the largest representation on the list relative to other habitat groups. Of the 29 state or federally listed taxa, 21 were also classified as climate vulnerable, further raising their conservation concern. Integrating climate vulnerability and California's Bird Species of Special Concern list resulted in the addition of five taxa and an increase in priority rank for ten. Our process illustrates a simple, immediate action that can be taken to inform climate change adaptation strategies for wildlife.

The use of climate information in vulnerability assessments.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-01-01

This memorandum focuses on the use of climate information when performing a vulnerability : assessment, a topic that was discussed at the Newark Pilot Peer Exchange Workshop on May 4-5, : 2011. The memorandum describes several sources of climate info...

Assessment of the intrinsic vulnerability of agricultural land to water and nitrogen losses: case studies in Italy and Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aschonitis, V. G.; Mastrocicco, M.; Colombani, N.; Salemi, E.; Castaldelli, G.

2014-09-01

LOS indices (abbr. of Losses) can be used for the assessment of the intrinsic vulnerability of agricultural land to water and nitrogen losses through percolation and runoff. The indices were applied on the lowland region of Ferrara Province (FP) in Italy and the upland region of Sarigkiol Basin (SB) in Greece. The most vulnerable zones in FP were the coastal areas consisting of high permeability sandy dunes and the areas close to riverbanks and palaeochannels, and in SB were the areas characterized by high slopes and high permeability soils at high altitude and areas belonging to the upper part of the alluvial plain close to the boundaries between agricultural land and mountainous regions. The application of LOS indices highlighted the specific features of both lowland and upland regions that contribute to water and nitrogen losses and showed their ability for use as tools in designing environmental management plans.

Rapid Assessment of Seismic Vulnerability in Palestinian Refugee Camps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Al-Dabbeek, Jalal N.; El-Kelani, Radwan J.

Studies of historical and recorded earthquakes in Palestine demonstrate that damaging earthquakes are occurring frequently along the Dead Sea Transform: Earthquake of 11 July 1927 (ML 6.2), Earthquake of 11 February 2004 (ML 5.2). In order to reduce seismic vulnerability of buildings, losses in lives, properties and infrastructures, an attempt was made to estimate the percentage of damage degrees and losses at selected refugee camps: Al Ama`ri, Balata and Dhaishe. Assessing the vulnerability classes of building structures was carried out according to the European Macro-Seismic Scale 1998 (EMS-98) and the Fedral Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). The rapid assessment results showed that very heavy structural and non structural damages will occur in the common buildings of the investigated Refugee Camps (many buildings will suffer from damages grades 4 and 5). Bad quality of buildings in terms of design and construction, lack of uniformity, absence of spaces between the building and the limited width of roads will definitely increase the seismic vulnerability under the influence of moderate-strong (M 6-7) earthquakes in the future.

Applications of monsoon research: Opportunities to inform decisionmaking and reduce regional vulnerability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ray, A. J.; Garfin, G. M.; Wilder, M.; Lenart, M.; Vásquez-León, M.; Comrie, A. C.

2007-05-01

This presentation will describe ongoing efforts to understand interactions between the North American Monsoon and society, in order to develop applications for monsoon research in a highly complex, multicultural and binational region. The North American Monsoon is an annual precipitation regime that begins in early June in Mexico and progresses northward to the southwestern United States. The region includes stakeholders in large urban complexes, productive agricultural areas, and sparsely populated arid and semi-arid ecosystems. The political, cultural, and socioeconomic divisions between the U.S. and Mexico create a broad range of sensitivities to climate variability as well as capacities to use forecasts and other information to cope with climate. We will highlight methodologies to link climate science with society and analyze opportunities for monsoon science to benefit society in four sectors: natural hazards management, agriculture, public health, and water management. We present a synthesized list of stakeholder needs and a calendar of decisions to help scientists link user needs to potential forecasts and products. To ensure usability of forecasts and other research products, we recommend iterative scientist-stakeholder interactions, through integrated assessments. These knowledge- exchange interactions can improve the capacity for stakeholders to use forecasts thoughtfully and inform the development of research, and for the research community to obtain feedback on climate-related products and receive insights to guide research direction. We expect that integrated assessments can capitalize on the opportunities for monsoon science to inform decisionmaking, in the best instances, reduce regional climate vulnerabilities and enhance regional sustainability

Assessment of groundwater vulnerability in the Daule aquifer, Ecuador, using the susceptibility index method.

PubMed

Ribeiro, Luís; Pindo, Juan Carlos; Dominguez-Granda, Luis

2017-01-01

The Guayas region in Ecuador is economically very important, producing 68% of the national crops. The main agricultural activities threaten the groundwater therein with nitrate contamination given the large fertiliser and water needs. The present work tests the applicability of the susceptibility index assessment method in evaluating the impact of agricultural activities on groundwater quality, using as a case study an aquifer of the Guayas river basin in Ecuador. The index adapts four parameters of the DRASTIC method and incorporated a new land use parameter. Results show that the areas highly vulnerable to contamination are located in irrigation perimeters of dominant paddy fields associated with the high recharge rates in the alluvial deposits. Respectively, moderately vulnerable and low-vulnerability areas correspond to aquatic environments and forests, semi-natural zones and water bodies. One of the main contributions of the Daule aquifer vulnerability is likely its wide, flat topography. A great part of the aquifer is at high risk of contamination by nitrates if a code of good agricultural practices is not applied. Therefore the implementation of a monitoring network to control the nitrates concentrations is the first step to assure groundwater quality for drinking purposes. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An holistic approach to beach erosion vulnerability assessment.

PubMed

Alexandrakis, George; Poulos, Serafim Ε

2014-08-15

Erosion is a major threat for coasts worldwide, beaches in particular, which constitute one of the most valuable coastal landforms. Vulnerability assessments related to beach erosion may contribute to planning measures to counteract erosion by identifying, quantifying and ranking vulnerability. Herein, we present a new index, the Beach Vulnerability Index (BVI), which combines simplicity in calculations, easily obtainable data and low processing capacity. This approach provides results not only for different beaches, but also for different sectors of the same beach and enables the identification of the relative significance of the processes involved. It functions through the numerical approximation of indicators that correspond to the mechanisms related to the processes that control beach evolution, such as sediment availability, wave climate, beach morhodynamics and sea level change. The BVI is also intended to be used as a managerial tool for beach sustainability, including resilience to climate change impact on beach erosion.

Accounting for adaptive capacity and uncertainty in assessments of species’ climate-change vulnerability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wade, Alisa A.; Hand, Brian K.; Kovach, Ryan; Luikart, Gordon; Whited, Diane; Muhlfeld, Clint C.

2016-01-01

Climate change vulnerability assessments (CCVAs) are valuable tools for assessing species’ vulnerability to climatic changes, yet failure to include measures of adaptive capacity and to account for sources of uncertainty may limit their effectiveness. Here, we provide a more comprehensive CCVA approach that incorporates all three elements used for assessing species’ climate change vulnerability: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. We illustrate our approach using case studies of two threatened salmonids with different life histories – anadromous steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) and non-anadromous bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) – within the Columbia River Basin, USA. We identified general patterns of high vulnerability in low-elevation and southernmost habitats for both species. However, vulnerability rankings varied widely depending on the factors (climate, habitat, demographic, and genetic) included in the CCVA and often differed for the two species at locations where they were sympatric. Our findings illustrate that CCVA results are highly sensitive to data inputs and that spatial differences can complicate multi-species conservation. Our results highlight how CCVAs should be considered within a broader conceptual and computational framework for refining hypotheses, guiding research, and comparing plausible scenarios of species’ vulnerability for ongoing and projected climate change.

Indicator-based model to assess vulnerability to landslides in urban areas. Case study of Husi city (Eastern Romania)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grozavu, Adrian; Ciprian Margarint, Mihai; Catalin Stanga, Iulian

2013-04-01

In the last three or four decades, vulnerability evolved from physical fragility meanings to a more complex concept, being a key element of risk assessment. In landslide risk assessment, there are a large series of studies regarding landslide hazard, but far fewer researches focusing on vulnerability measurement. Furthermore, there is still no unitary understanding on the methodological framework, neither any internationally agreed standard for landslide vulnerability measurements. The omnipresent common element is the existence of elements at risk, but while some approaches are limited to exposure, other focus on the degree of losses (human injuries, material damages and monetary losses, structural dysfunctions etc.). These losses are differently assessed using both absolute and relative values on qualitative or quantitative scales and they are differently integrated to provide a final vulnerability value. This study aims to assess vulnerability to landslides at local level using an indicator-based model applied to urban areas and tested for Husi town (Eastern Romania). The study region is characterized by permeable and impermeable alternating sedimentary rocks, monoclinal geological structure and hilly relief with impressive cuestas, continental temperate climate, and precipitation of about 500 mm/year, rising to 700 m and even more in some rainy years. The town is a middle size one (25000 inhabitants) and it had an ascending evolution in the last centuries, followed by an increasing human pressure on lands. Methodologically, the first step was to assess the landslide susceptibility and to identify in this way those regions within which any asset would be exposed to landslide hazards. Landslide susceptibility was assessed using the logistic regression approach, taking into account several quantitative and qualitative factors (elements of geology, morphometry, rainfall, land use etc.). The spatial background consisted in the Digital Elevation Model and all derived

Assessment of Groundwater Vulnerability for Antropogenic and Geogenic Contaminants in Subwatershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ko, K.; Koh, D.; Chae, G.; Cheong, B.

2007-12-01

Groundwater is an important natural resource that providing drinking water to more than five million people in Korea. Nonpoint source nitrate was frequently observed contaminant and the investigation result for small potable water supply system that mainly consisted of 70 percent groundwater showed that about 5 percent of water samples exceeded potable water quality standards of Korea. The geogenic contanminants such as arsenic and fluoride also frequently observed contaminants in Korea. In order to protect groundwater and to supply safe water to public, we need to assess groundwater vulnerability and to know the cause of occurrence of contaminants. To achieve this goal, we executed groundwater investigation and assessment study for Keumsan subwatershed with 600km2 in Keum-river watershed. The geostatistical and GIS technique were applied to map the spatial distribution of each contaminants and to calculate vulnerability index. The results of logistic regression for nitrate indicated the close relationship with land use. The results of hydrogeochemical analyses showed that nitrates in groundwater are largely influenced by land use and had high values in granitic region with dense agricultural field and resident. The high nitrates are closely related to groundwater of greenhouse area where large amount of manure and fertilizer were usually introduced in cultural land. The soil in granitic region had high contents of permeable sand of weathered products of granite that play as a role of pathway of contaminants in agricultural land and resident area. The high values of bicarbonate are originated from two sources, limestone dissolution of Ogcheon belt and biodegradation organic pollutants from municipal wastes in granitic region with dense agriculture and residence. It is considered that the anomalous distribution of arsenic and fluoride is related to limestone and metasedimentry rock of Ogcheon belt with high contents of sulfide minerals and F bearing minerals. The

A modified SINTACS method for groundwater vulnerability and pollution risk assessment in highly anthropized regions based on NO3- and SO42- concentrations.

PubMed

Busico, Gianluigi; Kazakis, Nerantzis; Colombani, Nicolò; Mastrocicco, Micòl; Voudouris, Konstantinos; Tedesco, Dario

2017-12-31

Groundwater vulnerability and risk assessment are worldwide tools in supporting groundwater protection and land planning. In this study, we used three of these different methodologies applied to the Campanian Plain located in southern Italy: SINTACS, AVI and LOS. However, their capability to describe the observed chemical pollution of the area has resulted quite poor. For such a reason, a modified SINTACS method has been then implemented in the area in order to get a more reliable view of groundwater vulnerability. NO 3 - and SO 4 2- from more than 400 monitoring wells were used for specific vulnerability assessment. Land use was chosen as key parameter to infer the risk of groundwater pollution in our area. The new methodology seems to show a higher correlation with observed NO 3 - concentrations and a more reliable identification of aquifer's pollution hot spots. The main sources of NO 3 - were found in sub-urban areas, where vulnerability and risk are higher than in other areas. Otherwise due to reducing conditions triggered by the presence of elevated sedimentary organic matter and peat, concentrations below agricultural areas were lower than in sub-urban areas. The SO 4 2- specific vulnerability map showed a positive correlation with observed concentrations, due to geogenic and anthropogenic SO 4 2- sources present in the area. The combination of both NO 3 - and SO 4 2- derived risk maps becomes essential to improve the conceptual model of aquifer pollution in this severely anthropized area. The application of this new and original approach shed light on the strengths and weaknesses of each of the described previous methods and clearly showed how anthropogenic activities have to be taken into account in the assessment process. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

[Vulnerability assessment on the coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary under sea-level rise].

PubMed

Cui, Li-Fang; Wang, Ning; Ge, Zhen-Ming; Zhang, Li-Quan

2014-02-01

To study the response of coastal wetlands to climate change, assess the impacts of climate change on the coastal wetlands and formulate feasible and practical mitigation strategies are the important prerequisite for securing coastal ecosystems. In this paper, the possible impacts of sea level rise caused by climate change on the coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary were analyzed by the Source-Pathway-Receptor-Consequence (SPRC) model and IPCC definition on the vulnerability. An indicator system for vulnerability assessment was established, in which sea-level rise rate, subsidence rate, habitat elevation, inundation threshold of habitat and sedimentation rate were selected as the key indicators. A quantitatively spatial assessment method based on the GIS platform was established by quantifying each indicator, calculating the vulnerability index and grading the vulnerability index for the assessment of coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary under the scenarios of sea-level rise. The vulnerability assessments on the coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary in 2030 and 2050 were performed under two sea-level rise scenarios (the present sea-level rise trend over recent 30 years and IPCC A1F1 scenario). The results showed that with the projection in 2030 under the present trend of sea-level rise (0.26 cm x a(-1)), 6.6% and 0.1% of the coastal wetlands were in the low and moderate vulnerabilities, respectively; and in 2050, 9.8% and 0.2% of the coastal wetlands were in low and moderate vulnerabilities, respectively. With the projection in 2030 under the A1F1 scenario (0.59 cm x a(-1)), 9.0% and 0.1% of the coastal wetlands were in the low and moderate vulnerabilities, respectively; and in 2050, 9.5%, 1.0% and 0.3% of the coastal wetlands were in the low, moderate and high vulnerabilities, respectively.

Assessing the Vulnerability of Agriculture to Climate Change in Jordan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khresat, Sa'eb; Shraidaeh, Fadi; Maddat, Amer

2015-04-01

Climate change represents one of the greatest environmental, social and economic threats facing Jordan. In particular, the combined effects of climate change and water scarcity threaten to affect food and water resources that are critical for livelihoods in Jordan. This is especially true for those communities who live in the dryland area in the country and who rely wholly on rain-fed agriculture. The exact nature and extent of the impact of climate change on temperature and precipitation distribution pattern remain uncertain and it is the poor and vulnerable who will be the most susceptible to climate change adverse effects. A vulnerability assessment of rain fed agriculture to climate change and variability in semi-arid parts of Jordan was conducted in 2014. The purpose of this study is to assess the vulnerability and resilience of the most vulnerable groups where rainfed and irrigated agriculture is practiced. Also, the study focused on quantifying the impacts on agricultural productivity in response to climate change. This will help policymakers and researchers better understand and anticipate the likely impacts of climate change on agriculture and on vulnerable communities in Jordan. Also, it will provide them with tools to identify and implement appropriate adaptation strategies. The data used includes; Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 adopted by the IPCC for its fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Those pathways were used for climate modeling. A decision support system (DSSAT) for agricultural production was used to assess the impact of climate changes on agricultural production. This approach was used for the Identification of climate change risk and their impacts on Agriculture. Outputs from models are used to assess the vulnerability of farmers and crops to climate and socio-economic change by estimating their sensitivity and capacity to adapt to external factors as a means of identifying what causes the differences in their

Intrinsic vulnerability assessment of shallow aquifers of the sedimentary basin of southwestern Nigeria

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

The shallow groundwater of the multi-layered sedimentary basin aquifer of southwestern Nigeria was assessed based on its intrinsic vulnerability property. The vulnerability evaluation involves determining the protective cover and infiltration condition of the unsaturated zone in the basin. This was achieved using the PI (P stands for protective cover effectiveness of the overlying lithology and I indicates the degree of infiltration bypass) vulnerability method of the European vulnerability approach. The PI method specifically measures the protection cover and the degree to which the protective cover is bypassed. Intrinsic parameters assessed were the subsoil, lithology, topsoil, recharge and fracturing for the protective cover. The saturated hydraulic conductivity of topsoil, infiltration processes and the lateral surface and subsurface flow were evaluated for the infiltration bypassed. The results show moderate to very low vulnerability areas. Low vulnerability areas were characterised by lithology with massive sandstone and limestone, subsoils of sandy loam texture, high slopes and high depth to water table. The moderate vulnerability areas were characterised by high rainfall and high recharge, low water table, unconsolidated sandstones and alluvium lithology. The intrinsic vulnerability properties shown in vulnerability maps will be a useful tool in planning and monitoring land use activities that can be of impact in groundwater pollution.

Climate program "stone soup": Assessing climate change vulnerabilities in the Aleutian and Bering Sea Islands of Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Littell, J. S.; Poe, A.; van Pelt, T.

2015-12-01

Climate change is already affecting the Bering Sea and Aleutian Island region of Alaska. Past and present marine research across a broad spectrum of disciplines is shedding light on what sectors of the ecosystem and the human dimension will be most impacted. In a grassroots approach to extend existing research efforts, leveraging recently completed downscaled climate projections for the Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands region, we convened a team of 30 researchers-- with expertise ranging from anthropology to zooplankton to marine mammals-- to assess climate projections in the context of their expertise. This Aleutian-Bering Climate Vulnerability Assessment (ABCVA) began with researchers working in five teams to evaluate the vulnerabilities of key species and ecosystem services relative to projected changes in climate. Each team identified initial vulnerabilities for their focal species or services, and made recommendations for further research and information needs that would help managers and communities better understand the implications of the changing climate in this region. Those draft recommendations were shared during two focused, public sessions held within two hub communities for the Bering and Aleutian region: Unalaska and St. Paul. Qualitative insights about local concerns and observations relative to climate change were collected during these sessions, to be compared to the recommendations being made by the ABCVA team of researchers. Finally, we used a Structured Decision Making process to prioritize the recommendations of participating scientists, and integrate the insights shared during our community sessions. This work brought together residents, stakeholders, scientists, and natural resource managers to collaboratively identify priorities for addressing current and expected future impacts of climate change. Recommendations from this project will be incorporated into future research efforts of the Aleutian and Bering Sea Islands Landscape Conservation

Coastal vulnerability assessment using Fuzzy Logic and Bayesian Belief Network approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valentini, Emiliana; Nguyen Xuan, Alessandra; Filipponi, Federico; Taramelli, Andrea

2017-04-01

Natural hazards such as sea surge are threatening low-lying coastal plains. In order to deal with disturbances a deeper understanding of benefits deriving from ecosystem services assessment, management and planning can contribute to enhance the resilience of coastal systems. In this frame assessing current and future vulnerability is a key concern of many Systems Of Systems SOS (social, ecological, institutional) that deals with several challenges like the definition of Essential Variables (EVs) able to synthesize the required information, the assignment of different weight to be attributed to each considered variable, the selection of method for combining the relevant variables. It is widely recognized that ecosystems contribute to human wellbeing and then their conservation increases the resilience capacities and could play a key role in reducing climate related risk and thus physical and economic losses. A way to fully exploit ecosystems potential, i.e. their so called ecopotential (see H2020 EU funded project "ECOPOTENTIAL"), is the Ecosystem based Adaptation (EbA): the use of ecosystem services as part of an adaptation strategy. In order to provide insight in understanding regulating ecosystem services to surge and which variables influence them and to make the best use of available data and information (EO products, in situ data and modelling), we propose a multi-component surge vulnerability assessment, focusing on coastal sandy dunes as natural barriers. The aim is to combine together eco-geomorphological and socio-economic variables with the hazard component on the base of different approaches: 1) Fuzzy Logic; 2) Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN). The Fuzzy Logic approach is very useful to get a spatialized information and it can easily combine variables coming from different sources. It provides information on vulnerability moving along-shore and across-shore (beach-dune transect), highlighting the variability of vulnerability conditions in the spatial

Assessment of the vulnerability and the resilience of the population at risk of multi-hazard: a support to geo-risk management in Central Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michellier, Caroline; Kervyn, François; Tréfon, Théodore; Wolff, Eléonore

2013-04-01

GeoRisCA is a project which aims at studying the geo-risk in the Kivu region (DRC, Rwanda, Burundi), in order to support risk management. The approach developed in GeoRisCA combines methodologies from various disciplines, which will allow the analyses of seismic, volcanic and mass-movement hazards and the vulnerability assessment of the threatened elements. Vulnerability is a complex concept which is commonly defined as the susceptibility of the population, the infrastructures and the natural ecosystems to suffer from damages if a hazard occurs. The densely populated area extended from the North Kivu province in Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) to North Burundi and East Rwanda is vulnerable to several geohazards, such as landslides triggered by geodynamical processes (climate, seismicity, volcanism) and possibly worsen by anthropic actions. Located in the East African rift valley, the region is also characterized by a strong seismicity, with increasing people and infrastructure exposed. In addition, east DRC hosts the two most active African volcanoes: Nyiragongo and Nyamulagira. Their activity can have serious impacts, as in 2002 when Nyiragongo directly endangers the ~800.000 inhabitants of Goma city, located ~15 km to the south. Linked to passive volcanic degassing, SO2 and CO2 discharge may also increase the population vulnerability(morbidity, mortality). Focusing specifically on this region, the vulnerability assessment methodology developed in GeoRisCA takes into account "exposure to perturbations" and "adaptive capacity or resilience" of the vulnerable systems. On one hand, the exposure is identified as the potential degree of loss of a given element or set of elements at risk; i.e., the susceptibility of people, infrastructures and buildings with respect to a hazard (social vulnerability). It focuses mainly on land use, and on demographic and socio-economic factors that increase or attenuate the impacts of hazards events on local populations. On the

How to Assess Vulnerabilities of Water Policies to Global Change?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, A.; Haasnoot, M.; Weijs, S.

2017-12-01

Water managers are confronted with uncertainties arising from hydrological, societal, economical and political drivers. To manage these uncertainties two paradigms have been identified: top-down and bottom-up approaches. Top-down or prediction-based approaches use socio-economic scenarios together with a discrete set of GCM projections (often downscaled) to assess the expected impact of drivers and policies on water resource system through various hydrological and social systems models. Adaptation strategies to alleviate these impacts are then identified and tested against the scenarios. To address GCM and downscaling uncertainties, these approaches put more focus on climate predictions, rather than the decision problem itself. Triggered by the wish to have a more scenario-neutral approach and address downscaling uncertainties, recent analyses have been shifted towards vulnerability-based (bottom-up or decision-centric) approaches. They begin at the local scale by addressing socio-economic responses to climate, often involving stakeholder's input; identify vulnerabilities under a larger sample of plausible futures and evaluate sensitivity and robustness of possible adaptation options. Several bottom-up approaches have emerged so far and are increasingly recommended. Fundamentally they share several core ideas, however, subtle differences exist in vulnerability assessment, visualization tools for exploring vulnerabilities and computational methods used for identifying robust water policies. Through this study, we try to identify how these approaches are progressing, how the climate and non-climate uncertainties are being confronted and how to integrate existing and new tools. We find that choice of a method may depend on the number of vulnerability drivers identified and type of threshold levels (environmental conditions or policy objectives) defined. Certain approaches are suited well for assessing adaptive capacities, tipping points and sequencing of decisions

Assessing coastal wetland vulnerability to sea-level rise along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast: Gaps and opportunities for developing a coordinated regional sampling network

PubMed Central

Griffith, Kereen T.; Larriviere, Jack C.; Feher, Laura C.; Cahoon, Donald R.; Enwright, Nicholas M.; Oster, David A.; Tirpak, John M.; Woodrey, Mark S.; Collini, Renee C.; Baustian, Joseph J.; Breithaupt, Joshua L.; Cherry, Julia A.; Conrad, Jeremy R.; Cormier, Nicole; Coronado-Molina, Carlos A.; Donoghue, Joseph F.; Graham, Sean A.; Harper, Jennifer W.; Hester, Mark W.; Howard, Rebecca J.; Krauss, Ken W.; Kroes, Daniel E.; Lane, Robert R.; McKee, Karen L.; Mendelssohn, Irving A.; Middleton, Beth A.; Moon, Jena A.; Piazza, Sarai C.; Rankin, Nicole M.; Sklar, Fred H.; Steyer, Greg D.; Swanson, Kathleen M.; Swarzenski, Christopher M.; Vervaeke, William C.; Willis, Jonathan M.; Wilson, K. Van

2017-01-01

Coastal wetland responses to sea-level rise are greatly influenced by biogeomorphic processes that affect wetland surface elevation. Small changes in elevation relative to sea level can lead to comparatively large changes in ecosystem structure, function, and stability. The surface elevation table-marker horizon (SET-MH) approach is being used globally to quantify the relative contributions of processes affecting wetland elevation change. Historically, SET-MH measurements have been obtained at local scales to address site-specific research questions. However, in the face of accelerated sea-level rise, there is an increasing need for elevation change network data that can be incorporated into regional ecological models and vulnerability assessments. In particular, there is a need for long-term, high-temporal resolution data that are strategically distributed across ecologically-relevant abiotic gradients. Here, we quantify the distribution of SET-MH stations along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast (USA) across political boundaries (states), wetland habitats, and ecologically-relevant abiotic gradients (i.e., gradients in temperature, precipitation, elevation, and relative sea-level rise). Our analyses identify areas with high SET-MH station densities as well as areas with notable gaps. Salt marshes, intermediate elevations, and colder areas with high rainfall have a high number of stations, while salt flat ecosystems, certain elevation zones, the mangrove-marsh ecotone, and hypersaline coastal areas with low rainfall have fewer stations. Due to rapid rates of wetland loss and relative sea-level rise, the state of Louisiana has the most extensive SET-MH station network in the region, and we provide several recent examples where data from Louisiana’s network have been used to assess and compare wetland vulnerability to sea-level rise. Our findings represent the first attempt to examine spatial gaps in SET-MH coverage across abiotic gradients. Our analyses can be

Assessing coastal wetland vulnerability to sea-level rise along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast: Gaps and opportunities for developing a coordinated regional sampling network

USGS Publications Warehouse

Osland, Michael J.; Griffith, Kereen T.; Larriviere, Jack C.; Feher, Laura C.; Cahoon, Donald R.; Enwright, Nicholas M.; Oster, David A.; Tirpak, John M.; Woodrey, Mark S.; Collini, Renee C.; Baustian, Joseph J.; Breithaupt, Joshua L.; Cherry, Julia A; Conrad, Jeremy R.; Cormier, Nicole; Coronado-Molina, Carlos A.; Donoghue, Joseph F.; Graham, Sean A.; Harper, Jennifer W.; Hester, Mark W.; Howard, Rebecca J.; Krauss, Ken W.; Kroes, Daniel; Lane, Robert R.; Mckee, Karen L.; Mendelssohn, Irving A.; Middleton, Beth A.; Moon, Jena A.; Piazza, Sarai; Rankin, Nicole M.; Sklar, Fred H.; Steyer, Gregory D.; Swanson, Kathleen M.; Swarzenski, Christopher M.; Vervaeke, William; Willis, Jonathan M; Van Wilson, K.

2017-01-01

Coastal wetland responses to sea-level rise are greatly influenced by biogeomorphic processes that affect wetland surface elevation. Small changes in elevation relative to sea level can lead to comparatively large changes in ecosystem structure, function, and stability. The surface elevation table-marker horizon (SET-MH) approach is being used globally to quantify the relative contributions of processes affecting wetland elevation change. Historically, SET-MH measurements have been obtained at local scales to address site-specific research questions. However, in the face of accelerated sea-level rise, there is an increasing need for elevation change network data that can be incorporated into regional ecological models and vulnerability assessments. In particular, there is a need for long-term, high-temporal resolution data that are strategically distributed across ecologically-relevant abiotic gradients. Here, we quantify the distribution of SET-MH stations along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast (USA) across political boundaries (states), wetland habitats, and ecologically-relevant abiotic gradients (i.e., gradients in temperature, precipitation, elevation, and relative sea-level rise). Our analyses identify areas with high SET-MH station densities as well as areas with notable gaps. Salt marshes, intermediate elevations, and colder areas with high rainfall have a high number of stations, while salt flat ecosystems, certain elevation zones, the mangrove-marsh ecotone, and hypersaline coastal areas with low rainfall have fewer stations. Due to rapid rates of wetland loss and relative sea-level rise, the state of Louisiana has the most extensive SET-MH station network in the region, and we provide several recent examples where data from Louisiana’s network have been used to assess and compare wetland vulnerability to sea-level rise. Our findings represent the first attempt to examine spatial gaps in SET-MH coverage across abiotic gradients. Our analyses can be

A Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment of California's At-Risk Birds

PubMed Central

Gardali, Thomas; Seavy, Nathaniel E.; DiGaudio, Ryan T.; Comrack, Lyann A.

2012-01-01

Conservationists must develop new strategies and adapt existing tools to address the consequences of anthropogenic climate change. To support statewide climate change adaptation, we developed a framework for assessing climate change vulnerability of California's at-risk birds and integrating it into the existing California Bird Species of Special Concern list. We defined climate vulnerability as the amount of evidence that climate change will negatively impact a population. We quantified climate vulnerability by scoring sensitivity (intrinsic characteristics of an organism that make it vulnerable) and exposure (the magnitude of climate change expected) for each taxon. Using the combined sensitivity and exposure scores as an index, we ranked 358 avian taxa, and classified 128 as vulnerable to climate change. Birds associated with wetlands had the largest representation on the list relative to other habitat groups. Of the 29 state or federally listed taxa, 21 were also classified as climate vulnerable, further raising their conservation concern. Integrating climate vulnerability and California's Bird Species of Special Concern list resulted in the addition of five taxa and an increase in priority rank for ten. Our process illustrates a simple, immediate action that can be taken to inform climate change adaptation strategies for wildlife. PMID:22396726

Quantitative risk assessment using empirical vulnerability functions from debris flow event reconstruction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luna, Byron Quan; Blahut, Jan; Camera, Corrado; van Westen, Cees; Sterlacchini, Simone; Apuani, Tiziana; Akbas, Sami

2010-05-01

For a quantitative risk assessment framework it is essential to assess not only the hazardous process itself but to perform an analysis of their consequences. This quantitative assessment should include the expected monetary losses as the product of the probability of occurrence of a hazard with a given magnitude and its vulnerability. A quantifiable integrated approach of both hazard and risk is becoming a required practice in risk reduction management. Dynamic run-out models for debris flows are able to calculate physical outputs (extension, depths, velocities, impact pressures) and to determine the zones where the elements at risk could suffer an impact. These results are then applied for vulnerability and risk calculations. The risk assessment has been conducted in the Valtellina Valley, a typical Italian alpine valley lying in northern Italy (Lombardy Region). On 13th July 2008, after more than two days of intense rainfall, several debris and mud flows were released in the central part of valley between Morbegno and Berbenno. One of the largest debris flows occurred in Selvetta. The debris flow event was reconstructed after extensive field work and interviews with local inhabitants and civil protection teams. Also inside the Valtellina valley, between the 22nd and the 23rd of May 1983, two debris flows happened in Tresenda (Teglio municipality), causing casualties and considerable economic damages. On the same location, during the 26th of November 2002, another debris flow occurred that caused significant damage. For the quantification of a new scenario, the outcome results obtained from the event of Selvetta were applied in Tresenda. The Selvetta and Tresenda event were modelled with the FLO2D program. FLO2D is an Eulerian formulation with a finite differences numerical scheme that requires the specification of an input hydrograph. The internal stresses are isotropic and the basal shear stresses are calculated using a quadratic model. The significance of

An assessment of streamflow vulnerability to climate using ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Identifying regions with similar hydrology is useful for assessing water quality and quantity across the U.S., especially areas that are difficult or costly to monitor. For example, hydrologic landscapes (HLs) have been used to map streamflow variability and assess the spatial distribution of climatic response in Oregon, Alaska, and the Pacific Northwest. HLs have also been applied to assess historic and projected climatic impacts across the Western U.S. In this project, we summarized (1) the HL classification methodology and (2) the utility of using HLs as a tool to classify the vulnerability of streams to climatic changes in the Western U.S. During the HL classification process, we analyzed climate, seasonality, aquifer permeability, terrain, and soil permeability as the primary hydrologic drivers (and precipitation intensity as a secondary driver) associated with large scale hydrologic processes (storage, conveyance, and flow of water into or out of the watershed) in the West. We derived the dominant hydrologic pathways (surface runoff or deep or shallow groundwater) from the HL classification of different catchments to test our hypotheses: 1) Changes in climate will have greater impacts on streamflow in catchments dominated by surface runoff. 2) Catchments historically fed by surface runoff from winter snowmelt in the spring will experience greater impact if precipitation falls as rain instead of snow. We calculated S* (precipitation surplus, which includes

Livelihood Vulnerability Approach to Assess Climate Change Impacts to Mixed Agro-Livestock Smallholders Around the Gandaki River Basin of Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panthi, J., Sr.

2014-12-01

Climate change vulnerability depends upon various factors and differs between places, sectors and communities. People in developing countries whose subsistence livelihood depends upon agriculture and livestock are identified as particularly vulnerable. Nepal, where the majority of people are in a mixed agro-livestock system, is identified as the world's fourth most vulnerable country to climate change. However, there are few studies on how vulnerable mixed agro-livestock smallholders are and how their vulnerability differs across different ecological regions. This study aims to test two vulnerability assessment indices, livelihood vulnerability index (LVI) and IPCC vulnerability index (VI-IPCC), around the Gandaki river basin of Nepal. A total of 543 households practicing mixed agro-livestock were surveyed from three districts (Dhading, Syangja and Kapilvastu) representing the mountain, mid-hill and lowland altitudinal belts respectively. Data on socio-demographics, livelihoods, social networks, health, food and water security, natural disasters and climate variability were collected. Both indices differed across the three districts, with mixed agro-livestock smallholders of Dhading district found to be the most vulnerable and that of Syangja least vulnerable. This vulnerability index approach may be used to monitor rural vulnerability and/or evaluate potential program/policy effectiveness in poor countries like Nepal. The present findings are intended to help in designing intervention strategies to reduce vulnerability of mixed agro-livestock smallholders and other rural people in developing countries to climate change.

A client-server software for the identification of groundwater vulnerability to pesticides at regional level.

PubMed

Di Guardo, Andrea; Finizio, Antonio

2015-10-15

The groundwater VULnerability to PESticide software system (VULPES) is a user-friendly, GIS-based and client-server software developed to identify vulnerable areas to pesticides at regional level making use of pesticide fate models. It is a Decision Support System aimed to assist the public policy makers to investigate areas sensitive to specific substances and to propose limitations of use or mitigation measures. VULPES identify the so-called Uniform Geographical Unit (UGU) which are areas characterised by the same agro-environmental conditions. In each UGU it applies the PELMO model obtaining the 80th percentile of the substance concentration at 1 metre depth; then VULPES creates a vulnerability map in shapefile format which classifies the outputs comparing them with the lower threshold set to the legal limit concentration in groundwater (0.1 μg/l). This paper describes the software structure in details and a case study with the application of the terbuthylazine herbicide on the Lombardy region territory. Three zones with different degrees of vulnerabilities has been identified and described. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Drought Vulnerability Mapping with Geomorphological Approach in Yogyakarta Special Region (DIY) and Central Java

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sudaryatno

2016-11-01

This study aims to determine the level of vulnerability of the geomorphologic drought that occurred in Central Java and Yogyakarta Special Region. This study examines geomorphologic drought. Parameters used were slope, drainage, Available Water Capacity (AWC), permeability, landform, and land use. Landsat 8 and SRTM data were used for the extraction of physical parameters, such as slope, drainage, landform, and land use. The method used in this study is scoring and weighting. Query results were used for data classification by overlaying drought geomorphologic parameters. The expected outcome of this research is to map the geomorphologic drought vulnerability on Central Java and Yogyakarta Special Region. Drought vulnerability was divided into wet, normal and dry classes. Distribution of the dry class is frequent. Some of the dry classes are distributed on the steep till extremely steep slope region and on the structural and karsts landform. This was related to AWC value where region with high AWC contributed to the poor drainage of the soil, such as at Kulonprogo, Purworejo, Kebumen, Blora, Wonogiri, Purbalingga, Pekalongan, Jepara and Kudus regency. Normal classes are distributed on the sloping till steep slope, have moderate till well-drained soil and low AWC, such as at Gunung Kidul, Pati, Temanggung regency, and Magelang city. Wet classes are distributed on the flat or almost flat and sloping region. Most of the wet classes are distributed on volcanic hills and coastal area. Those regions are well-drained and the land uses are mostly for settlement and farming, such as at Sleman, Yogyakarta city, Klaten, Bantul, and Wonosobo regency.

Population vulnerability to storm surge flooding in coastal Virginia, USA.

PubMed

Liu, Hua; Behr, Joshua G; Diaz, Rafael

2016-07-01

This study aims to assess the vulnerability of populations to storm surge flooding in 12 coastal localities of Virginia, USA. Population vulnerability is assessed by way of 3 physical factors (elevation, slope, and storm surge category), 3 built-up components (road availability, access to hospitals, and access to shelters), and 3 household conditions (storm preparedness, financial constraints to recovering from severe weather events, and health fragility). Fuzzy analysis is used to generate maps illustrating variation in several types of population vulnerability across the region. When considering physical factors and household conditions, the most vulnerable neighborhoods to sea level rise and storm surge flooding are largely found in urban areas. However, when considering access to critical infrastructure, we find rural residents to be more vulnerable than nonrural residents. These detailed assessments can inform both local and state governments in catastrophic planning. In addition, the methodology may be generalized to assess vulnerability in other coastal corridors and communities. The originality is highlighted by evaluating socioeconomic conditions at refined scale, incorporating a broader range of human perceptions and predispositions, and employing a geoinformatics approach combining physical, built-up, and socioeconomic conditions for population vulnerability assessment. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2016;12:500-509. © 2015 SETAC. © 2015 SETAC.

Groundwater Vulnerability Assessment of the Pingtung Plain in Southern Taiwan.

PubMed

Liang, Ching-Ping; Jang, Cheng-Shin; Liang, Cheng-Wei; Chen, Jui-Sheng

2016-11-23

In the Pingtung Plain of southern Taiwan, elevated levels of NO₃ - -N in groundwater have been reported. Therefore, efforts for assessing groundwater vulnerability are required as part of the critical steps to prevent and control groundwater pollution. This study makes a groundwater vulnerability assessment for the Pingtung Plain using an improved overlay and index-based DRASTIC model. The improvement of the DRASTIC model is achieved by reassigning the weighting coefficients of the factors in this model with the help of a discriminant analysis statistical method. The analytical results obtained from the improved DRASTIC model provide a reliable prediction for use in groundwater vulnerability assessment to nitrate pollution and can correctly identify the groundwater protection zones in the Pingtung Plain. Moreover, the results of the sensitivity analysis conducted for the seven parameters in the improved DRASTIC model demonstrate that the aquifer media (A) is the most sensitive factor when the nitrate-N concentration is below 2.5 mg/L. For the cases where the nitrate-N concentration is above 2.5 mg/L, the aquifer media (A) and net recharge (R) are the two most important factors.

A System for Assessing Vulnerability of Species (SAVS) to Climate Change

Treesearch

Karen E. Bagne; Megan M. Friggens; Deborah M. Finch

2011-01-01

Sustained conservation of species requires integration of future climate change effects, but few tools exist to assist managers. The System for Assessing Vulnerability of Species (SAVS) identifies the relative vulnerability or resilience of vertebrate species to climate change. Designed for managers, the SAVS is an easily applied tool that uses a questionnaire of 22...

Assessing the Vulnerability of Eco-Environmental Health to Climate Change

PubMed Central

Tong, Shilu; Mather, Peter; Fitzgerald, Gerry; McRae, David; Verrall, Ken; Walker, Dylan

2010-01-01

There is an urgent need to assess the vulnerability of eco-environmental health to climate change. This paper aims to provide an overview of current research, to identify knowledge gaps, and to propose future research needs in this challenging area. Evidence shows that climate change is affecting and will, in the future, have more (mostly adverse) impacts on ecosystems. Ecosystem degradation, particularly the decline of the life support systems, will undoubtedly affect human health and wellbeing. Therefore, it is important to develop a framework to assess the vulnerability of eco-environmental health to climate change, and to identify appropriate adaptation strategies to minimize the impact of climate change. PMID:20616990

Climate Change: Vulnerability Assessment for Water Resources Management in South Florida

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Obeysekera, J.

2008-12-01

South Florida is home to over 7 million people and its population is projected to increase to over 10 million people by 2025 and possibly 12-15 million by 2050. Through Federal/State/Local partnerships, the Greater Everglades is being restored under numerous water resources management projects requiring large investments of time and money. Recent climate change projections as published in the most recent report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have the potential to cause significant impacts on flood control and water supply functions of water resources management, and on existing and future ecosystem restoration projects in south Florida. More recent estimates of sea level rise for south Florida are much higher than those in the IPCC report and if such projections become a reality, consequences may be disastrous. It is extremely important to understand the extent of global projections for various emission scenarios, their ability to represent the climatology of local regions, and the potential vulnerabilities of both climate change and sea level rise on water resources management. Implications of natural variability of the climate and teleconnections in South Florida are understood with a reasonable degree of certainty. Recent emphasis on climate change due to human-induced impacts have generated new questions on the sustainability of coastal environments with a heightened concern for the success of large-scale environmental projects throughout South Florida. An assessment of the precipitation projections of the General Circulation Models (GCMs) shows that their ability to represent the landscape of Florida and predict historical climate patterns may be limited. In order to understand the vulnerability of the water management system in south Florida under changing precipitation and evapotranspiration patterns, a sensitivity analysis using a regional-scale, hydrologic simulation model was conducted. The results show the vulnerability of

Assessment of Vulnerability to Coccidioidomycosis in Arizona and California.

PubMed

Shriber, Jennifer; Conlon, Kathryn C; Benedict, Kaitlin; McCotter, Orion Z; Bell, Jesse E

2017-06-23

Coccidioidomycosis is a fungal infection endemic to the southwestern United States, particularly Arizona and California. Its incidence has increased, potentially due in part to the effects of changing climatic variables on fungal growth and spore dissemination. This study aims to quantify the county-level vulnerability to coccidioidomycosis in Arizona and California and to assess the relationships between population vulnerability and climate variability. The variables representing exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity were combined to calculate county level vulnerability indices. Three methods were used: (1) principal components analysis; (2) quartile weighting; and (3) percentile weighting. Two sets of indices, "unsupervised" and "supervised", were created. Each index was correlated with coccidioidomycosis incidence data from 2000-2014. The supervised percentile index had the highest correlation; it was then correlated with variability measures for temperature, precipitation, and drought. The supervised percentile index was significantly correlated ( p < 0.05) with coccidioidomycosis incidence in both states. Moderate, positive significant associations ( p < 0.05) were found between index scores and climate variability when both states were concurrently analyzed and when California was analyzed separately. This research adds to the body of knowledge that could be used to target interventions to vulnerable counties and provides support for the hypothesis that population vulnerability to coccidioidomycosis is associated with climate variability.

Assessment of Vulnerability to Coccidioidomycosis in Arizona and California

PubMed Central

Conlon, Kathryn C.; Benedict, Kaitlin; McCotter, Orion Z.; Bell, Jesse E.

2017-01-01

Coccidioidomycosis is a fungal infection endemic to the southwestern United States, particularly Arizona and California. Its incidence has increased, potentially due in part to the effects of changing climatic variables on fungal growth and spore dissemination. This study aims to quantify the county-level vulnerability to coccidioidomycosis in Arizona and California and to assess the relationships between population vulnerability and climate variability. The variables representing exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity were combined to calculate county level vulnerability indices. Three methods were used: (1) principal components analysis; (2) quartile weighting; and (3) percentile weighting. Two sets of indices, “unsupervised” and “supervised”, were created. Each index was correlated with coccidioidomycosis incidence data from 2000–2014. The supervised percentile index had the highest correlation; it was then correlated with variability measures for temperature, precipitation, and drought. The supervised percentile index was significantly correlated (p < 0.05) with coccidioidomycosis incidence in both states. Moderate, positive significant associations (p < 0.05) were found between index scores and climate variability when both states were concurrently analyzed and when California was analyzed separately. This research adds to the body of knowledge that could be used to target interventions to vulnerable counties and provides support for the hypothesis that population vulnerability to coccidioidomycosis is associated with climate variability. PMID:28644403

Binational climate change vulnerability assessment of migratory birds in the Great Lakes Basins: Tools and impediments.

PubMed

Rempel, Robert S; Hornseth, Megan L

2017-01-01

Climate change is a global concern, requiring international strategies to reduce emissions, however, climate change vulnerability assessments are often local in scope with assessment areas restricted to jurisdictional boundaries. In our study we explored tools and impediments to understanding and responding to the effects of climate change on vulnerability of migratory birds from a binational perspective. We apply and assess the utility of a Climate Change Vulnerability Index on 3 focal species using distribution or niche modeling frameworks. We use the distributional forecasts to explore possible changes to jurisdictional conservation responsibilities resulting from shifting distributions for: eastern meadowlark (Sturnella magna), wood thrush (Hylocichla mustelina), and hooded warbler (Setophaga citrina). We found the Climate Change Vulnerability Index to be a well-organized approach to integrating numerous lines of evidence concerning effects of climate change, and provided transparency to the final assessment of vulnerability. Under this framework, we identified that eastern meadowlark and wood thrush are highly vulnerable to climate change, but hooded warbler is less vulnerable. Our study revealed impediments to assessing and modeling vulnerability to climate change from a binational perspective, including gaps in data or modeling for climate exposure parameters. We recommend increased cross-border collaboration to enhance the availability and resources needed to improve vulnerability assessments and development of conservation strategies. We did not find evidence to suggest major shifts in jurisdictional responsibility for the 3 focal species, but results do indicate increasing responsibility for these birds in the Canadian Provinces. These Provinces should consider conservation planning to help ensure a future supply of necessary habitat for these species.

Binational climate change vulnerability assessment of migratory birds in the Great Lakes Basins: Tools and impediments

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Climate change is a global concern, requiring international strategies to reduce emissions, however, climate change vulnerability assessments are often local in scope with assessment areas restricted to jurisdictional boundaries. In our study we explored tools and impediments to understanding and responding to the effects of climate change on vulnerability of migratory birds from a binational perspective. We apply and assess the utility of a Climate Change Vulnerability Index on 3 focal species using distribution or niche modeling frameworks. We use the distributional forecasts to explore possible changes to jurisdictional conservation responsibilities resulting from shifting distributions for: eastern meadowlark (Sturnella magna), wood thrush (Hylocichla mustelina), and hooded warbler (Setophaga citrina). We found the Climate Change Vulnerability Index to be a well-organized approach to integrating numerous lines of evidence concerning effects of climate change, and provided transparency to the final assessment of vulnerability. Under this framework, we identified that eastern meadowlark and wood thrush are highly vulnerable to climate change, but hooded warbler is less vulnerable. Our study revealed impediments to assessing and modeling vulnerability to climate change from a binational perspective, including gaps in data or modeling for climate exposure parameters. We recommend increased cross-border collaboration to enhance the availability and resources needed to improve vulnerability assessments and development of conservation strategies. We did not find evidence to suggest major shifts in jurisdictional responsibility for the 3 focal species, but results do indicate increasing responsibility for these birds in the Canadian Provinces. These Provinces should consider conservation planning to help ensure a future supply of necessary habitat for these species. PMID:28225817

A participatory approach of flood vulnerability assessment in the Banat Plain, Romania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balteanu, Dan; Costache, Andra; Sima, Mihaela; Dumitrascu, Monica; Dragota, Carmen; Grigorescu, Ines

2014-05-01

The Banat Plain (western Romania) is a low, alluvial plain affected by neotectonic subsidence movements, being a critical region in terms of exposure to floods. The latest extreme event was the historic floods occcured in the spring of 2005, which caused significant economic damage in several rural communities. The response to 2005 floods has highlighted a number of weaknesses in the management of hazards, such as the deficiencies of the early warning system, people awareness or the inefficiency of some mitigation measures, besides the past structural measures which are obsolete. For a better understanding of the local context of vulnerability and communities resilience to floods, the quantitative assessment of human vulnerability to floods was supplemented with a participatory research, in which there were involved five rural settlements from the Banat Plain (comprising 15 villages and a population of over 12,000 inhabitants). Thus, in the spring of 2013, a questionnaire-based survey was conducted in approx. 100 households of the affected communities and structured interviews were held with local authorities, in the framework of VULMIN project, funded by the Ministry of National Education. The questionnaire was designed based on a pilot survey conducted in 2005, several months after the flood, and was focused on two major issues: a) perception of the local context of vulnerability to environmental change and extreme events; b) perception of human vulnerability to floods (personal experience, post-disaster rehabilitation, awareness, worrying and opinion on the measures aimed to prevent and mitigate the effects of flooding). The results were correlated with a number of specific variables of the households included in the sample, such as: household structure; income source; income level; location of the dwelling in relation to floodplains. In this way, we were able to draw general conclusions about the way in which local people perceive the extreme events, such as

Spatial-explicit modeling of social vulnerability to malaria in East Africa

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Despite efforts in eradication and control, malaria remains a global challenge, particularly affecting vulnerable groups. Despite the recession in malaria cases, previously malaria free areas are increasingly confronted with epidemics as a result of changing environmental and socioeconomic conditions. Next to modeling transmission intensities and probabilities, integrated spatial methods targeting the complex interplay of factors that contribute to social vulnerability are required to effectively reduce malaria burden. We propose an integrative method for mapping relative levels of social vulnerability in a spatially explicit manner to support the identification of intervention measures. Methods Based on a literature review, a holistic risk and vulnerability framework has been developed to guide the assessment of social vulnerability to water-related vector-borne diseases (VBDs) in the context of changing environmental and societal conditions. Building on the framework, this paper applies spatially explicit modeling for delineating homogeneous regions of social vulnerability to malaria in eastern Africa, while taking into account expert knowledge for weighting the single vulnerability indicators. To assess the influence of the selected indicators on the final index a local sensitivity analysis is carried out. Results Results indicate that high levels of malaria vulnerability are concentrated in the highlands, where immunity within the population is currently low. Additionally, regions with a lack of access to education and health services aggravate vulnerability. Lower values can be found in regions with relatively low poverty, low population pressure, low conflict density and reduced contributions from the biological susceptibility domain. Overall, the factors characterizing vulnerability vary spatially in the region. The vulnerability index reveals a high level of robustness in regard to the final choice of input datasets, with the exception of the

LAND USE CHANGE DUE TO URBANIZATION FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT REGION OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES

EPA Science Inventory

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Regional Vulnerability Assessment Pro- gram (REVA) is designed to develop and demonstrate approaches to identify the ecosystems at the greatest risk from regional population growth and economic activity (Smith, 1999). A region is a...

Assessing mental health and violence on college campuses using the vulnerability model.

PubMed

Ponsford, Lisa R

2016-04-01

Violence on college campuses has become increasingly more common than in previous years. Nearly 73% of students with a mental health condition living on campus experience a mental health crisis. College students arriving on campuses today come with different needs, expectations for services, and with different risk factors than in previous years. Advanced practice registered nurses (APRNs) in college health settings have the ability to recognize these changing trends and assist with improving the mental health of this population. A critical analysis of an exemplar college campus is explored using the vulnerability model to assess risks that can lead to unnecessary and preventable violence on college campuses. The vulnerability model is a comprehensive approach utilized to guide an assessment to identify both individual and community risk factors influencing health and healthcare environments. The use of the vulnerability model illustrated in this article reveals its usefulness in identifying the risk and needs for this population. APRNs and student health centers are positioned well to utilize the vulnerability model in assessing the needs of college campuses to improve outcomes of students. ©2016 American Association of Nurse Practitioners.

Cerebral Cortex Regions Selectively Vulnerable to Radiation Dose-Dependent Atrophy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Seibert, Tyler M.; Karunamuni, Roshan; Kaifi, Samar

Purpose and Objectives: Neurologic deficits after brain radiation therapy (RT) typically involve decline in higher-order cognitive functions such as attention and memory rather than sensory defects or paralysis. We sought to determine whether areas of the cortex critical to cognition are selectively vulnerable to radiation dose-dependent atrophy. Methods and Materials: We measured change in cortical thickness in 54 primary brain tumor patients who underwent fractionated, partial brain RT. The study patients underwent high-resolution, volumetric magnetic resonance imaging (T1-weighted; T2 fluid-attenuated inversion recovery, FLAIR) before RT and 1 year afterward. Semiautomated software was used to segment anatomic regions of the cerebral cortex formore » each patient. Cortical thickness was measured for each region before RT and 1 year afterward. Two higher-order cortical regions of interest (ROIs) were tested for association between radiation dose and cortical thinning: entorhinal (memory) and inferior parietal (attention/memory). For comparison, 2 primary cortex ROIs were also tested: pericalcarine (vision) and paracentral lobule (somatosensory/motor). Linear mixed-effects analyses were used to test all other cortical regions for significant radiation dose-dependent thickness change. Statistical significance was set at α = 0.05 using 2-tailed tests. Results: Cortical atrophy was significantly associated with radiation dose in the entorhinal (P=.01) and inferior parietal ROIs (P=.02). By contrast, no significant radiation dose-dependent effect was found in the primary cortex ROIs (pericalcarine and paracentral lobule). In the whole-cortex analysis, 9 regions showed significant radiation dose-dependent atrophy, including areas responsible for memory, attention, and executive function (P≤.002). Conclusions: Areas of cerebral cortex important for higher-order cognition may be most vulnerable to radiation-related atrophy. This is consistent with clinical

Eco-environmental vulnerability assessment for large drinking water resource: a case study of Qiandao Lake Area, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gu, Qing; Li, Jun; Deng, Jinsong; Lin, Yi; Ma, Ligang; Wu, Chaofan; Wang, Ke; Hong, Yang

2015-09-01

The Qiandao Lake Area (QLA) is of great significance in terms of drinking water supply in East Coast China as well as a nationally renowned tourist attraction. A series of laws and regulations regarding the QLA environment have been enacted and implemented throughout the past decade with the aim of negating the harmful effects associated with expanding urbanization and industrialization. In this research, an assessment framework was developed to analyze the eco-environmental vulnerability of the QLA from 1990-2010 by integrating fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) and geographical information systems (GIS) in an attempt to gain insights into the status quo of the QLA so as to review and evaluate the effectiveness of the related policies. After processing and analyzing the temporal and spatial variation of eco-environmental vulnerability and major environmental issues in the QLA, we found that the state of eco-environmental vulnerability of the QLA was acceptable, though a moderate deterioration was detected during the study period. Furthermore, analysis of the combination of vulnerability and water quality indicated that the water quality showed signs of declination, though the overall status remained satisfactory. It was hence concluded that the collective protection and treatment actions were effective over the study period, whereas immediately stricter measures would be required for protecting the drinking water quality from domestic sewage and industrial wastewater. Finally, the spatial variation of the eco-environmental vulnerability assessment also implied that specifically more targeted measures should be adopted in respective regions for long-term sustainable development of the QLA.

Remotely Sensed Quantitative Drought Risk Assessment in Vulnerable Agroecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dalezios, N. R.; Blanta, A.; Spyropoulos, N. V.

2012-04-01

Hazard may be defined as a potential threat to humans and their welfare and risk (or consequence) as the probability of a hazard occurring and creating loss. Drought is considered as one of the major natural hazards with significant impact to agriculture, environment, economy and society. This paper deals with drought risk assessment, which the first step designed to find out what the problems are and comprises three distinct steps, namely risk identification, risk management which is not covered in this paper, there should be a fourth step to address the need for feedback and to take post-audits of all risk assessment exercises. In particular, quantitative drought risk assessment is attempted by using statistical methods. For the qualification of drought, the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) is employed, which is a new index based on hydrometeorological parameters, such as precipitation and potential evapotranspiration. The remotely sensed estimation of RDI is based on NOA-AVHRR satellite data for a period of 20 years (1981-2001). The study area is Thessaly, central Greece, which is a drought-prone agricultural region characterized by vulnerable agriculture. Specifically, the undertaken drought risk assessment processes are specified as follows: 1. Risk identification: This step involves drought quantification and monitoring based on remotely sensed RDI and extraction of several features such as severity, duration, areal extent, onset and end time. Moreover, it involves a drought early warning system based on the above parameters. 2. Risk estimation: This step includes an analysis of drought severity, frequency and their relationships. 3. Risk evaluation: This step covers drought evaluation based on analysis of RDI images before and after each drought episode, which usually lasts one hydrological year (12month). The results of these three-step drought assessment processes are considered quite satisfactory in a drought-prone region such as Thessaly in central

Assessment of Water Sustainability Index Using Reliability-Resilience-Vulnerability Criteria Considering Climatic Variation over India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lakshmi, V.; Mondal, A.; Kundu, S.

2016-12-01

Abstract:Precipitation can be considered as a key factor in Water Resources Sustainability (WRS). In India, WRS varies with widely varying distribution of precipitation. The economy of the India is based on agricultural production which mainly depends on rainfall. The main focus of the paper is assessment of Water Sustainability based on Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) method for evaluating drought and non-drought conditionsin India using a precipitation data of a long time period (1871-2014). The study area has been divided into thirty sub-regions on the basis homogeneity pattern of rainfall distribution. The performance criteria such as, Reliability, Resilience, Vulnerability and Relative Vulnerability (RV) have been applied in this study. The ranges of water sustainably (WS), vulnerability, relative vulnerability and drought resilience are 0.26 to 0.67, 0.52 to 1.06, 0.22 to 0.61 and 0.72 to 1 respectively. Specifically, WS of Gangetic West Bengal, Naga-Mani-Mizo-trip, Konkan-Goa, Chattisgarh and Kerala are less (0.26, 0.31, 0.35, 0.38 and 0.38 respectively) while Punjab, Marathwada, West Rajasthan and Vidarbha are more (0.57, 0.60, 0.67 and 0.57 respectively).Finally, WS and RV have shown negative correlation (R2=0.86) while WS and drought resilience have shown positive correlation (R2=0.60). The results have clearly illustrated a scenario of entire India, which can be helpful in agricultural management in future. Key Words: Sustainability, SPI, Reliability, Resilience, Vulnerability

Assessing Hazard Vulnerability, Habitat Conservation, and Restoration for the Enhancement of Mainland China's Coastal Resilience

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sajjad, Muhammad; Li, Yangfan; Tang, Zhenghong; Cao, Ling; Liu, Xiaoping

2018-03-01

Worldwide, humans are facing high risks from natural hazards, especially in coastal regions with high population densities. Rising sea levels due to global warming are making coastal communities' infrastructure vulnerable to natural disasters. The present study aims to provide a coupling approach of vulnerability and resilience through restoration and conservation of lost or degraded coastal natural habitats to reclamation under different climate change scenarios. The integrated valuation of ecosystems and tradeoffs model is used to assess the current and future vulnerability of coastal communities. The model employed is based on seven different biogeophysical variables to calculate a natural hazard index and to highlight the criticality of the restoration of natural habitats. The results show that roughly 25% of the coastline and more than 5 million residents are in highly vulnerable coastal areas of mainland China, and these numbers are expected to double by 2100. Our study suggests that restoration and conservation in recently reclaimed areas have the potential to reduce this vulnerability by 45%. Hence, natural habitats have proved to be a great defense against coastal hazards and should be prioritized in coastal planning and development. The findings confirm that natural habitats are critical for coastal resilience and can act as a recovery force of coastal functionality loss. Therefore, we recommend that the Chinese government prioritizes restoration (where possible) and conservation of the remaining habitats for the sake of coastal resilience to prevent natural hazards from escalating into disasters.

Quantifying human vulnerability in rural areas: case study of Tutova Hills (Eastern Romania)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stângă, I. C.; Grozavu, A.

2012-06-01

This paper aims to assess the vulnerability at regional level, the model and the proposed indicators being explicitly intended for an essentially rural region, in this case-Tutova Hills (Eastern Romania). Five categories of variables were taken into account to define the vulnerability components: rural habitat, demographic features, agriculture, environmental quality and emergency situations. For each one, five variables were analyzed and ranked based on the level of determination or subordination. In order to ensure the flexibility of the model and to avoid the criteria duplication in assessing vulnerability, only a single indicator of each category was retained and included in analysis: total number of inhabitants, dependency ratio, weight of arable land on slope categories, weight of land under forestry and road accessibility of villages. The selected indicators were mathematically processed in order to maximize their relevance and to unitary express the results in the spread 0-1. Also, values of each indicator were grouped into four classes, corresponding to the level of vulnerability: low, medium, high and very high. A general index was obtained through the integration of vulnerability factors in an equation based on the geometric mean. Spatial analysis was based on features of the MicroImages TNTmips 7.3. software, which allow the vulnerability mapping. This approach argues and states that vulnerability assessment through indicator-based methods can be made only according to the level and scale of analysis and related to natural or human conditions of a region.

Hydrocode simulations of air and water shocks for facility vulnerability assessments.

PubMed

Clutter, J Keith; Stahl, Michael

2004-01-02

Hydrocodes are widely used in the study of explosive systems but their use in routine facility vulnerability assessments has been limited due to the computational resources typically required. These requirements are due to the fact that the majority of hydrocodes have been developed primarily for the simulation of weapon-scale phenomena. It is not practical to use these same numerical frameworks on the large domains found in facility vulnerability studies. Here, a hydrocode formulated specifically for facility vulnerability assessments is reviewed. Techniques used to accurately represent the explosive source while maintaining computational efficiency are described. Submodels for addressing other issues found in typical terrorist attack scenarios are presented. In terrorist attack scenarios, loads produced by shocks play an important role in vulnerability. Due to the difference in the material properties of water and air and interface phenomena, there exists significant contrast in wave propagation phenomena in these two medium. These physical variations also require special attention be paid to the mathematical and numerical models used in the hydrocodes. Simulations for a variety of air and water shock scenarios are presented to validate the computational models used in the hydrocode and highlight the phenomenological issues.

Assessing socioeconomic vulnerability to dengue fever in Cali, Colombia: statistical vs expert-based modeling

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background As a result of changes in climatic conditions and greater resistance to insecticides, many regions across the globe, including Colombia, have been facing a resurgence of vector-borne diseases, and dengue fever in particular. Timely information on both (1) the spatial distribution of the disease, and (2) prevailing vulnerabilities of the population are needed to adequately plan targeted preventive intervention. We propose a methodology for the spatial assessment of current socioeconomic vulnerabilities to dengue fever in Cali, a tropical urban environment of Colombia. Methods Based on a set of socioeconomic and demographic indicators derived from census data and ancillary geospatial datasets, we develop a spatial approach for both expert-based and purely statistical-based modeling of current vulnerability levels across 340 neighborhoods of the city using a Geographic Information System (GIS). The results of both approaches are comparatively evaluated by means of spatial statistics. A web-based approach is proposed to facilitate the visualization and the dissemination of the output vulnerability index to the community. Results The statistical and the expert-based modeling approach exhibit a high concordance, globally, and spatially. The expert-based approach indicates a slightly higher vulnerability mean (0.53) and vulnerability median (0.56) across all neighborhoods, compared to the purely statistical approach (mean = 0.48; median = 0.49). Both approaches reveal that high values of vulnerability tend to cluster in the eastern, north-eastern, and western part of the city. These are poor neighborhoods with high percentages of young (i.e., < 15 years) and illiterate residents, as well as a high proportion of individuals being either unemployed or doing housework. Conclusions Both modeling approaches reveal similar outputs, indicating that in the absence of local expertise, statistical approaches could be used, with caution. By decomposing identified

Drought vulnerability assessment of maize in Sub-Saharan Africa: Insights from physical and social perspectives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kamali, Bahareh; Abbaspour, Karim C.; Wehrli, Bernhard; Yang, Hong

2018-03-01

Drought as a slow-onset phenomenon inflicts important losses to agriculture where the degree of vulnerability depends not only on physical variables such as precipitation and temperature, but also on societal preparedness. While the scopes of physical and social vulnerability are very different in nature, studies distinguishing these two aspects have been lacking. In this study we address the physical and social aspects of drought vulnerability of maize (CDVIphy and CDVIsoc) in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). To quantify vulnerability, we applied a probabilistic framework combining a Drought Exposure Index (DEI) with a physical or social Crop Failure Index, CFIphy or CFIsoc, respectively. DEI was derived from the exceedance probability of precipitation. Maize yields, simulated using the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model, were used to build CFIphy, whereas the residual of simulated and FAO recorded yields were used to construct CFIsoc. The results showed that southern and partially central Africa are more vulnerable to physical drought as compared to other regions. Central and western Africa, however, are socially highly vulnerable. Comparison of CDVIphy and CDVIsoc revealed that societal factors cause more vulnerability than physical variables in almost all SSA countries except Nigeria and South Africa. We conclude that quantification of both drought vulnerabilities help a better characterization of droughts and identify regions where more investments in drought preparedness are required.

Vulnerability assessment of urban ecosystems driven by water resources, human health and atmospheric environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, Jing; Lu, Hongwei; Zhang, Yang; Song, Xinshuang; He, Li

2016-05-01

As ecosystem management is a hotspot and urgent topic with increasing population growth and resource depletion. This paper develops an urban ecosystem vulnerability assessment method representing a new vulnerability paradigm for decision makers and environmental managers, as it's an early warning system to identify and prioritize the undesirable environmental changes in terms of natural, human, economic and social elements. The whole idea is to decompose a complex problem into sub-problem, and analyze each sub-problem, and then aggregate all sub-problems to solve this problem. This method integrates spatial context of Geographic Information System (GIS) tool, multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) method, ordered weighted averaging (OWA) operators, and socio-economic elements. Decision makers can find out relevant urban ecosystem vulnerability assessment results with different vulnerable attitude. To test the potential of the vulnerability methodology, it has been applied to a case study area in Beijing, China, where it proved to be reliable and consistent with the Beijing City Master Plan. The results of urban ecosystem vulnerability assessment can support decision makers in evaluating the necessary of taking specific measures to preserve the quality of human health and environmental stressors for a city or multiple cities, with identifying the implications and consequences of their decisions.

Predicting plant vulnerability to drought in biodiverse regions using functional traits.

PubMed

Skelton, Robert Paul; West, Adam G; Dawson, Todd E

2015-05-05

Attempts to understand mechanisms underlying plant mortality during drought have led to the emergence of a hydraulic framework describing distinct hydraulic strategies among coexisting species. This framework distinguishes species that rapidly decrease stomatal conductance (gs), thereby maintaining high water potential (Px; isohydric), from those species that maintain relatively high gs at low Px, thereby maintaining carbon assimilation, albeit at the cost of loss of hydraulic conductivity (anisohydric). This framework is yet to be tested in biodiverse communities, potentially due to a lack of standardized reference values upon which hydraulic strategies can be defined. We developed a system of quantifying hydraulic strategy using indices from vulnerability curves and stomatal dehydration response curves and tested it in a speciose community from South Africa's Cape Floristic Region. Degree of stomatal regulation over cavitation was defined as the margin between Px at stomatal closure (Pg12) and Px at 50% loss of conductivity. To assess relationships between hydraulic strategy and mortality mechanisms, we developed proxies for carbon limitation and hydraulic failure using time since Pg12 and loss of conductivity at minimum seasonal Px, respectively. Our approach captured continuous variation along an isohydry/anisohydry axis and showed that this variation was linearly related to xylem safety margin. Degree of isohydry/anisohydry was associated with contrasting predictions for mortality during drought. Merging stomatal regulation strategies that represent an index of water use behavior with xylem vulnerability facilitates a more comprehensive framework with which to characterize plant response to drought, thus opening up an avenue for predicting the response of diverse communities to future droughts.

Development of a security vulnerability assessment process for the RAMCAP chemical sector.

PubMed

Moore, David A; Fuller, Brad; Hazzan, Michael; Jones, J William

2007-04-11

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS), Directorate of Information Analysis & Infrastructure Protection (IAIP), Protective Services Division (PSD), contracted the American Society of Mechanical Engineers Innovative Technologies Institute, LLC (ASME ITI, LLC) to develop guidance on Risk Analysis and Management for Critical Asset Protection (RAMCAP). AcuTech Consulting Group (AcuTech) has been contracted by ASME ITI, LLC, to provide assistance by facilitating the development of sector-specific guidance on vulnerability analysis and management for critical asset protection for the chemical manufacturing, petroleum refining, and liquefied natural gas (LNG) sectors. This activity involves two key tasks for these three sectors: Development of a screening to supplement DHS understanding of the assets that are important to protect against terrorist attack and to prioritize the activities. Development of a standard security vulnerability analysis (SVA) framework for the analysis of consequences, vulnerabilities, and threats. This project involves the cooperative effort of numerous leading industrial companies, industry trade associations, professional societies, and security and safety consultants representative of those sectors. Since RAMCAP is a voluntary program for ongoing risk management for homeland security, sector coordinating councils are being asked to assist in communicating the goals of the program and in encouraging participation. The RAMCAP project will have a profound and positive impact on all sectors as it is fully developed, rolled-out and implemented. It will help define the facilities and operations of national and regional interest for the threat of terrorism, define standardized methods for analyzing consequences, vulnerabilities, and threats, and describe best security practices of the industry. This paper will describe the results of the security vulnerability analysis process that was developed and field tested for the chemical manufacturing

Approach for Developing a National Atlas of Vulnerabilities for U.S. Water Quality and Aquatic Ecosystems

EPA Science Inventory

The purpose of the Atlas project is to support national- and regional-scale water quality and aquatic ecosystem vulnerability assessments by providing quantitative information on the relative vulnerability to climate change of different geographic regions and watershed systems ac...

A Coupled Community-Level Assessment of Social and Physical Vulnerability to Hurricane Disasters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, J. H.; Sutley, E. J.; Chowdhury, A. G.; Hamideh, S.

2017-12-01

A significant portion of the U.S. building inventory exists in hurricane- and flood-prone regions. The accompanying storm surge and rising water levels often result in the inundation of residential homes, particularly those occupied by low income households and forcing displacement. In order to mitigate potential damages, a popular design technique is to elevate the structure using piers or piles to above the base flood elevation. This is observed for single-family and multi-family homes, including manufactured homes and post-disaster temporary housing, albeit at lower elevations. Although this design alleviates potential flood damage, it affects the wind-structure interaction by subjecting the structure to higher wind speeds due to its increased height and also having a path for the wind to pass underneath the structure potentially creating new vulnerabilities to wind loading. The current ASCE 7 Standard (2016) does not include a methodology for addressing the modified aerodynamics and estimating wind loads for elevated structures, and thus the potential vulnerability during high wind events is unaccounted for in design. Using experimentally measured wind pressures on elevated and non-elevated residential building models, tax data, and census data, a coupled vulnerability assessment is performed at the community-level. Galveston, Texas is selected as the case study community. Using the coupled assessment model, a hindcast of 2008 Hurricane Ike is used for predicting physical damage and household dislocation. The predicted results are compared with the actual outcomes of the 2008 hurricane disaster. Recommendations are made (1) for code adoption based on the experimentally measured wind loads, and (2) for mitigation actions and policies that would could decrease population dislocation and promote recovery.

Assessing climate change impacts on water resources in remote mountain regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buytaert, Wouter; De Bièvre, Bert

2013-04-01

From a water resources perspective, remote mountain regions are often considered as a basket case. They are often regions where poverty is often interlocked with multiple threats to water supply, data scarcity, and high uncertainties. In these environments, it is paramount to generate locally relevant knowledge about water resources and how they impact local livelihoods. This is often problematic. Existing environmental data collection tends to be geographically biased towards more densely populated regions, and prioritized towards strategic economic activities. Data may also be locked behind institutional and technological barriers. These issues create a "knowledge trap" for data-poor regions, which is especially acute in remote and hard-to-reach mountain regions. We present lessons learned from a decade of water resources research in remote mountain regions of the Andes, Africa and South Asia. We review the entire tool chain of assessing climate change impacts on water resources, including the interrogation and downscaling of global circulation models, translating climate variables in water availability and access, and assessing local vulnerability. In global circulation models, mountain regions often stand out as regions of high uncertainties and lack of agreement of future trends. This is partly a technical artifact because of the different resolution and representation of mountain topography, but it also highlights fundamental uncertainties in climate impacts on mountain climate. This problem also affects downscaling efforts, because regional climate models should be run in very high spatial resolution to resolve local gradients, which is computationally very expensive. At the same time statistical downscaling methods may fail to find significant relations between local climate properties and synoptic processes. Further uncertainties are introduced when downscaled climate variables such as precipitation and temperature are to be translated in hydrologically

Vulnerability of social-ecological system to climate change in Mongolia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kakinuma, K.; Yanagawa, A.; Sasaki, T.; Kanae, S.

2017-12-01

Coping with future climate changes are one of the most important issues in the world. IPCC (2014) suggested that vulnerability and exposure of social-ecological systems to extreme climatic events (hazard) determine the impact of climate changes. Although the schematic framework is widely accepted, there are high uncertainty of vulnerability of social and ecological systems and it makes difficult to examine it in empirical researches. Our objective is to assess the climate change impact on the social-ecological system in Mongolia. We review researches about trends of climate (Hazard), vegetation, pastoral mobility (Vulnerability) and livestock distribution (Exposure) across Mongolia Climate trends are critical for last several decades and thus hazard may be increasing in Mongolia. Temperature is increasing with high confidence in all regions. Precipitation are slightly decreasing with medium confidence across the country, especially in northern and central regions. Exposure would also be increasing especially in northern, central and western regions, because livestock population are concentrating these regions after 1990. Generally, less productive ecosystems (e.g. few plant productivity and less species richness) are vulnerable to extreme climatic events such as drought. In that sense, southern region may be more vulnerable to climate changes than other regions. However, if we focus on pastoral mobility forms for drought, we get contractive conclusions. Pastoralists in southern region keep mobility to variable and scarce vegetation while pastoralists in northern region less mobile because of stable and much vegetation. Exclusive managements in northern region is able to maximized the number of livestock only under stable precipitation regimes. But at the same time, it is difficult to escape from hazardous areas when it is drought. Thus, in term of rangeland management, northern region would be more vulnerable to increase of drought intensity. Although northern and

Resilience, Vulnerability and Residual Threat: An Assessment from Indian Sundarban

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghosh, T.

2016-12-01

The estuarine islands within Indian Sundarban are extremely vulnerable due to climate change, erosion, flooding and increasing population pressure. Around 4.6 million people are living under constant threat of climatic shocks, affecting their farm based economy and dependency on forest resources for their livelihood. This paper attempts to focus on the dynamics of system's resilience in the backdrop of higher level of vulnerability. Globally the assessment of island vulnerability is generally more focused towards the climate change impacts, rather than taking into account other determining drivers with proper weightage. Three estuarine islands namely Sagar, Ghoramara and Mousani at the western part of Indian Sundarban Delta (ISD) have been chosen for this study to derive the indicator based scoring method using the household survey data from twenty seven (27) sampled `Mouza' (lowest administrative boundary; village) with cluster random sampling. Vulnerability and resilience of these islands have been calculated using the indicators like housing condition, electrification, population density, accretion, adult secondary education level, percentage of people `Below Poverty Line' (BPL) based on per capita income. Residual threats for these islands have been obtained by subtracting the score of resilience and vulnerability of the system. Result suggests that all these islands are in less resilient condition to combat the negative impact of the influencing factors. Sapkhali, Ghoramara, Bankimnagar, Shibpur and Baliara are becoming sensitive from excess residual threats. This study is an initiation for identifying the thrust areas need to address with effective policy adaptation, necessary to minimize the existing vulnerable conditions in these islands. Key words: Vulnerability, Resilience, Residual threat, Indian Sundarban

Summarizing components of U.S. Department of the Interior vulnerability assessments to focus climate adaptation planning

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thompson, Laura M.; Staudinger, Michelle D.; Carter, Shawn L.

2015-09-29

A secretarial order identified climate adaptation as a critical performance objective for future management of U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) lands and resources in response to global change. Vulnerability assessments can inform climate adaptation planning by providing insight into what natural resources are most at risk and why. Three components of vulnerability—exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity—were defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) as necessary for identifying climate adaptation strategies and actions. In 2011, the DOI requested all internal bureaus report ongoing or completed vulnerability assessments about a defined range of assessment targets or climate-related threats. Assessment targets were defined as freshwater resources, landscapes and wildlife habitat, native and cultural resources, and ocean health. Climate-related threats were defined as invasive species, wildfire risk, sea-level rise, and melting ice and permafrost. Four hundred and three projects were reported, but the original DOI survey did not specify that information be provided on exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity collectively as part of the request, and it was unclear which projects adhered to the framework recommended by the IPCC. Therefore, the U.S. Geological Survey National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center conducted a supplemental survey to determine how frequently each of the three vulnerability components was assessed. Information was categorized for 124 of the 403 reported projects (30.8 percent) based on the three vulnerability components, and it was discovered that exposure was the most common component assessed (87.9 percent), followed by sensitivity (68.5 percent) and adaptive capacity (33.1 percent). The majority of projects did not fully assess vulnerability; projects focused on landscapes/wildlife habitats and sea-level rise were among the minority that simultaneously addressed all three vulnerability

Assessing tsunami vulnerability, an example from Herakleio, Crete

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papathoma, M.; Dominey-Howes, D.; Zong, Y.; Smith, D.

Recent tsunami have caused massive loss of life, destruction of coastal infrastructures and disruption to economic activity. To date, tsunami hazard studies have concentrated on determining the frequency and magnitude of events and in the production of simplistic flood maps. In general, such maps appear to have assumed a uniform vulnerability of population, infrastructure and business. In reality however, a complex set of factors interact to produce a pattern of vulnerability that varies spatially and temporally. A new vulnerability assessment approach is described, that incorporates multiple factors (e.g. parameters relating to the natural and built environments and socio-demographics) that contribute to tsunami vulnerability. The new methodology is applied on a coastal segment in Greece and, in particular, in Crete, westof the city of Herakleio. The results are presented within a Geographic Information System (GIS). The application of GIS ensures the approach is novel for tsunami studies, since it permits interrogation of the primary database by several different end-users. For example, the GIS may be used: (1) to determine immediate post-tsunami disaster response needs by the emergency services; (2) to preplan tsunami mitigation measures by disaster planners; (3) as a tool for local planning by the municipal authorities or; (4) as a basis for catastrophe modelling by insurance companies. We show that population density varies markedly with the time of the year and that 30% of buildings within the inundation zone are only single story thus increasing the vulnerability of their occupants. Within the high inundation depth zone, 11% of buildings are identified as in need of reinforcement and this figure rises to 50% within the medium inundation depth zone. 10% of businesses are located within the high inundation depth zone and these may need to consider their level of insurance cover to protect against primary building damage, contents loss and business interruption

The role of minimum supply and social vulnerability assessment for governing critical infrastructure failure: current gaps and future agenda

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garschagen, Matthias; Sandholz, Simone

2018-04-01

Increased attention has lately been given to the resilience of critical infrastructure in the context of natural hazards and disasters. The major focus therein is on the sensitivity of critical infrastructure technologies and their management contingencies. However, strikingly little attention has been given to assessing and mitigating social vulnerabilities towards the failure of critical infrastructure and to the development, design and implementation of minimum supply standards in situations of major infrastructure failure. Addressing this gap and contributing to a more integrative perspective on critical infrastructure resilience is the objective of this paper. It asks which role social vulnerability assessments and minimum supply considerations can, should and do - or do not - play for the management and governance of critical infrastructure failure. In its first part, the paper provides a structured review on achievements and remaining gaps in the management of critical infrastructure and the understanding of social vulnerabilities towards disaster-related infrastructure failures. Special attention is given to the current state of minimum supply concepts with a regional focus on policies in Germany and the EU. In its second part, the paper then responds to the identified gaps by developing a heuristic model on the linkages of critical infrastructure management, social vulnerability and minimum supply. This framework helps to inform a vision of a future research agenda, which is presented in the paper's third part. Overall, the analysis suggests that the assessment of socially differentiated vulnerabilities towards critical infrastructure failure needs to be undertaken more stringently to inform the scientifically and politically difficult debate about minimum supply standards and the shared responsibilities for securing them.

A model for assessing the systemic vulnerability in landslide prone areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pascale, S.; Sdao, F.; Sole, A.

2010-07-01

The objectives of spatial planning should include the definition and assessment of possible mitigation strategies regarding the effects of natural hazards on the surrounding territory. Unfortunately, however, there is often a lack of adequate tools to provide necessary support to the local bodies responsible for land management. This paper deals with the conception, the development and the validation of an integrated numerical model for assessing systemic vulnerability in complex and urbanized landslide-prone areas. The proposed model considers this vulnerability not as a characteristic of a particular element at risk, but as a peculiarity of a complex territorial system, in which the elements are reciprocally linked in a functional way. It is an index of the tendency of a given territorial element to suffer damage (usually of a functional kind) due to its interconnections with other elements of the same territorial system. The innovative nature of this work also lies in the formalization of a procedure based on a network of influences for an adequate assessment of such "systemic" vulnerability. This approach can be used to obtain information which is useful, in any given situation of a territory hit by a landslide event, for the identification of the element which has suffered the most functional damage, ie the most "critical" element and the element which has the greatest repercussions on other elements of the system and thus a "decisive" role in the management of the emergency. This model was developed within a GIS system through the following phases: 1. the topological characterization of the territorial system studied and the assessment of the scenarios in terms of spatial landslide hazard. A statistical method, based on neural networks was proposed for the assessment of landslide hazard; 2. the analysis of the direct consequences of a scenario event on the system; 3. the definition of the assessment model of systemic vulnerability in landslide-prone areas. To

Assessing the ecological vulnerability of the upper reaches of the Minjiang River

PubMed Central

Sun, Jian; Ma, Baibing; Du, Wenpeng

2017-01-01

The upper reaches of the Minjiang River (URMR), located on the eastern edge of the Tibetan Plateau in southwestern China, are an important component of the ecological barrier of the Upper Yangtze River Basin. Climate change and human activities have increased the ecological sensitivity and vulnerability of the region, which may pose a threat to the ecological security of the Yangtze River Basin and have negative impacts on local social and economic development. In this study, we analyzed land use and cover change (LUCC) of the URMR between 2000 and 2010, and found that the total rate of LUCC was less than 0.50% during this period. In addition, net primary production (NPP) was employed to describe the changes in ecosystem sensitivity and vulnerability, and the results demonstrated that slightly and moderately sensitive and vulnerable zones occupied the largest area, distributed mainly in forest, shrub, and grassland ecosystems. However, compared with the period from 2000 to 2005, the ecological sensitivity and vulnerability showed a worsening trend in the period 2005–2010. Exploring the relationship between vulnerability/sensitivity and environmental factors, we found that sensitivity and vulnerability were positively correlated with precipitation (>700 mm) and aridity index (>36 mm/°C). The results highlight that the future ecological sensitivity and vulnerability of URMR should be further investigated, and that the LUCC induced by human activities and climate change have caused alteration of in ecosystem vulnerability. PMID:28753635

Assessing the ecological vulnerability of the upper reaches of the Minjiang River.

PubMed

Zhang, Jifei; Sun, Jian; Ma, Baibing; Du, Wenpeng

2017-01-01

The upper reaches of the Minjiang River (URMR), located on the eastern edge of the Tibetan Plateau in southwestern China, are an important component of the ecological barrier of the Upper Yangtze River Basin. Climate change and human activities have increased the ecological sensitivity and vulnerability of the region, which may pose a threat to the ecological security of the Yangtze River Basin and have negative impacts on local social and economic development. In this study, we analyzed land use and cover change (LUCC) of the URMR between 2000 and 2010, and found that the total rate of LUCC was less than 0.50% during this period. In addition, net primary production (NPP) was employed to describe the changes in ecosystem sensitivity and vulnerability, and the results demonstrated that slightly and moderately sensitive and vulnerable zones occupied the largest area, distributed mainly in forest, shrub, and grassland ecosystems. However, compared with the period from 2000 to 2005, the ecological sensitivity and vulnerability showed a worsening trend in the period 2005-2010. Exploring the relationship between vulnerability/sensitivity and environmental factors, we found that sensitivity and vulnerability were positively correlated with precipitation (>700 mm) and aridity index (>36 mm/°C). The results highlight that the future ecological sensitivity and vulnerability of URMR should be further investigated, and that the LUCC induced by human activities and climate change have caused alteration of in ecosystem vulnerability.

Assessment of Coastal Vulnerability to Sea Level Rise of Bolinao, Pangasinan Using Remote Sensing and Geographic Information Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reyes, S. R. C.; Blanco, A. C.

2012-07-01

A number of studies assessing the vulnerability of Southeast Asia to climate change have classified the Philippines as one of the vulnerable countries in the region. Bolinao, Pangasinan is a municipality located in northwestern Luzon, situated in the western part of the Lingayen Gulf and is bounded on the north and west by the South China Sea (West Philippine Sea). Recent studies have verified the varying trends in sea level across the South China Sea, which is considered as one of the largest, semi-enclosed marginal seas in the northwest Pacific Ocean. Three barangays (villages) were included in the study: (1) Luciente 1.0, (2) Concordia and (3) Germinal. The Socioeconomic Vulnerability Index (SVI) was computed based on population, age, gender, employment, source of income and household size, which were gathered through a qualitative survey in the selected barangays. The Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI) described the physical vulnerability of these coastal communities based on recorded sea level anomalies and significant wave heights of multiple satellite altimetry missions, coastal topography derived from the 25-m SRTM digital elevation model (DEM), bathymetry from WorldView-2 and additional elevation data from terrestrial laser scanning surveys. The research utilized merged satellite altimetry data downloaded from the Radar Altimetry Database System (RADS), which covered the period from 1991-2010. The SVI and CVI were calculated and evaluated in ArcGIS. The SVI and CVI were integrated to determine the Total Vulnerability Index (TVI), which characterized the vulnerability of the three barangays in five classes, from very low to very high vulnerability.

Compositing climate change vulnerability of a Mediterranean region using spatiotemporally dynamic proxies for ecological and socioeconomic impacts and stabilities.

PubMed

Demirkesen, Ali Can; Evrendilek, Fatih

2017-01-01

The study presents a new methodology to quantify spatiotemporal dynamics of climate change vulnerability at a regional scale adopting a new conceptual model of vulnerability as a function of climate change impacts, ecological stability, and socioeconomic stability. Spatiotemporal trends of equally weighted proxy variables for the three vulnerability components were generated to develop a composite climate change vulnerability index (CCVI) for a Mediterranean region of Turkey combining Landsat time series data, digital elevation model (DEM)-derived data, ordinary kriging, and geographical information system. Climate change impact was based on spatiotemporal trends of August land surface temperature (LST) between 1987 and 2016. Ecological stability was based on DEM, slope, aspect, and spatiotemporal trends of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), while socioeconomic stability was quantified as a function of spatiotemporal trends of land cover, population density, per capita gross domestic product, and illiteracy. The zones ranked on the five classes of no-to-extreme vulnerability were identified where highly and moderately vulnerable lands covered 0.02% (12 km 2 ) and 11.8% (6374 km 2 ) of the study region, respectively, mostly occurring in the interior central part. The adoption of this composite CCVI approach is expected to lead to spatiotemporally dynamic policy recommendations towards sustainability and tailor preventive and mitigative measures to locally specific characteristics of coupled ecological-socioeconomic systems.

Assessment of coastal vulnerability through the use of GIS tools in South Sicily (Italy).

PubMed

Anfuso, Giorgio; Martínez Del Pozo, José Angel

2009-03-01

This study assessed coastal erosion vulnerability along a 90-km sector, which included both erosional and accretionary beaches, and different levels of human occupation. Two aerial photogrammetric flights were used to reconstruct coastal evolution between 1977 and 1999. During this period, extensive accretion was recorded updrift of human structures at harbors and ports, e.g., Scoglitti (105.6 m), Donnalucata (52.8 m), and Pozzallo (94.6 m). Conversely, erosion was recorded in downdrift areas, with maximum values at Modica Stream mouth (63.8 m) and Point Castellazzo (35.2 m). Assessments were subsequently divided into four categories ranging from "high erosion" to "accretion." Several sources were examined to assess human activities and land use. The latter was mapped and divided into four categories, ranging from "very high" to "no capital" land use. Subsequently, coastal erosion vulnerability was assessed by combining land use categories with recorded coastline behavior. Results showed "very high" to "high" vulnerability along 5.8% and 16.6%, respectively, of the littoral, while 20.9% and 56.7%, respectively, was found to exhibit "medium" and "low/very low" vulnerability. A very good agreement between predicted coastal vulnerability and coastal trend had been observed over recent years. Furthermore, several human structures and activities are located within the "imminent collapse zone (ICZ)" which reached maximum values of 17.5 m at Modica Stream and 13.5 m at Point Braccetto.

Vulnerability Assessments in Support of the Climate Ready ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

As part of the Climate Ready Estuaries (CRE) program, the Global Change Research Program (GCRP) in the National Center for Environmental Assessment, Office of Research and Development at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has prepared a report exploring a new methodology for climate change vulnerability assessments using Massachusetts Bays’ salt marsh ecosystem as a demonstration. The aim is to synthesize place-based information on the potential implications of climate change for key ecosystem processes in each estuary, in a form that will enable managers to undertake management adaptation planning.

Inclusion of vulnerable groups in health policies: Regional policies on health priorities in Africa

PubMed Central

Eide, Arne Henning; Amin, Mutamad; MacLachlan, Malcom; Mannan, Hasheem

2013-01-01

Background If access to equitable health care is to be achieved for all, policy documents must mention and address in some detail different needs of groups vulnerable to not accessing such health care. If these needs are not addressed in the policy documents, there is little chance that they will be addressed at the stage of implementation. Objectives This paper reports on an analysis of 11 African Union (AU) policy documents to ascertain the frequency and the extent of mention of 13 core concepts in relation to 12 vulnerable groups, with a specific focus on people with disabilities. Method The paper applied the EquiFrame analytical framework to the 11 AU policy documents. The 11 documents were analysed in terms of how many times a core concept was mentioned and the extent of information on how the core concept should be addressed at the implementation level. Each core concept mention was further analysed in terms of the vulnerable group in referred to. Results The analysis of regional AU policies highlighted the broad nature of the reference made to vulnerable groups, with a lack of detailed specifications of different needs of different groups. This is confirmed in the highest vulnerable group mention being for ‘universal’. The reading of the documents suggests that vulnerable groups are homogeneous in their needs, which is not the case. There is a lack of recognition of different needs of different vulnerable groups in accessing health care. Conclusion The need for more information and knowledge on the needs of all vulnerable groups is evident. The current lack of mention and of any detail on how to address needs of vulnerable groups will significantly impair the access to equitable health care for all. PMID:28729986

Evaluating the Soil Vulnerability Index (SVI), an index to characterize inherent vulnerability of croplands to runoff and leaching

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Soil erosion and nutrient loss from surface runoff and sub-surface flows are critical problems for croplands in the United States. Assessing cropland vulnerability to runoff and leaching is needed for watershed or regional land use and land management planning and conservation resources allocation. ...

Comparison of empirical and numerical methods for the assessment of coastal vulnerability to erosion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kokkinos, Dimitris; Prinos, Panagiotis

2017-04-01

Assessing the vulnerability to erosion is an important step in order to identify the prone areas and propose an adaptation policy to climate change in coastal areas. In this paper two coastal areas at the Northern part of the Aegean Sea are selected to examine their vulnerability to erosion. The first case is Lesbos Island where the most common feature is pocket beaches and the second one is the coast of Thrace composed by long sandy beaches. In both case studies, the same simplified methodology proposed by Mendoza and Jimenez (2009) is used, which links the vulnerability to erosion with morphodynamic parameters such as beach retreat and beach width. The key parameter for the vulnerability assessment is the beach retreat. For its calculation two different approaches are used and compared. The first approach divides the eroded volume with the eroded depth and it is based on an empirical formula, derived for the Greek seas from the CCSEAWAVS project (Kokkinos et al, 2014), which links the eroded volume with JA parameter, a beach erosion predictor proposed by Jimenez (1993). The sediment fall velocity, the beach slope and the wave characteristics are the only necessary parameters to calculate JA. The second approach is based on the results derived from the numerical model Xbeach (Roelvink et al., 2009), which is an open source, state-of the-art, two-dimensional model including the hydrodynamic processes of short and long wave transformation, wave-induced setup, overwash, inundation, as well as the morphodynamic processes of bed load and suspended sediment transport, dune face avalanching, bed update and breaching. The results indicate that the area of Thrace is very prone to erosion at the eastern and western part of the study area, while the Island of Lesbos appears to have very low vulnerability. The application of this methodology with the two different approaches aims to generate useful information about the vulnerability to erosion, to examine the reliability of

Geological hazards, vulnerability, and risk assessment using GIS: model for Glenwood Springs, Colorado

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mejía-Navarro, Mario; Wohl, Ellen E.; Oaks, Sherry D.

1994-08-01

Glenwood Springs, Colorado, lies at the junction of the Roaring Fork and Colorado Rivers, surrounded by the steep peaks of the Colorado Rocky Mountains. Large parts of the region have had intensive sheet erosion, debris flows, and hyperconcentrated floods triggered by landslides and slumps. The latter come from unstable slopes in the many tributary channels on the mountainsides, causing concentration of debris in channels and a large accumulation of sediment in colluvial wedges and debris fans that line the river valleys. Many of the landslide and debris-flow deposits exist in a state resembling suspended animation, ready to be destabilized by intense precipitation and/or seismic activity. During this century urban development in the Roaring Fork River valley has increased rapidly. The city of Glenwood Springs continues to expand over unstable debris fans without any construction of hazard mitigation structures. Since 1900, Glenwood Springs has had at least 21 damaging debris flows and floods; on July 24, 1977 a heavy thunderstorm spread a debris flow over more than 80 ha of the city. This paper presents a method that uses Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to assess geological hazards, vulnerability, and risk in the Glenwood Springs area. The hazards evaluated include subsidence, rockfall, debris flows, and floods, and in this paper we focus on debris flows and subsidence. Information on topography, hydrology, precipitation, geomorphic processes, bedrock and surficial geology, structural geology, soils, vegetation, and land use, was processed for hazard assessment using a series of algorithms. ARC/INFO and GRASS GIS softwares were used to produce maps and tables in a format accessible to urban planners. After geological hazards were defined for the study area, we estimated the vulnerability ( Ve) of various elements for an event of intensity i. Risk is assessed as a function of hazard and vulnerability. We categorized the study area in 14 classes for planning

Chemical facility vulnerability assessment project.

PubMed

Jaeger, Calvin D

2003-11-14

Sandia National Laboratories, under the direction of the Office of Science and Technology, National Institute of Justice, conducted the chemical facility vulnerability assessment (CFVA) project. The primary objective of this project was to develop, test and validate a vulnerability assessment methodology (VAM) for determining the security of chemical facilities against terrorist or criminal attacks (VAM-CF). The project also included a report to the Department of Justice for Congress that in addition to describing the VAM-CF also addressed general observations related to security practices, threats and risks at chemical facilities and chemical transport. In the development of the VAM-CF Sandia leveraged the experience gained from the use and development of VAs in other areas and the input from the chemical industry and Federal agencies. The VAM-CF is a systematic, risk-based approach where risk is a function of the severity of consequences of an undesired event, the attack potential, and the likelihood of adversary success in causing the undesired event. For the purpose of the VAM-CF analyses Risk is a function of S, L(A), and L(AS), where S is the severity of consequence of an event, L(A) is the attack potential and L(AS) likelihood of adversary success in causing a catastrophic event. The VAM-CF consists of 13 basic steps. It involves an initial screening step, which helps to identify and prioritize facilities for further analysis. This step is similar to the prioritization approach developed by the American Chemistry Council (ACC). Other steps help to determine the components of the risk equation and ultimately the risk. The VAM-CF process involves identifying the hazardous chemicals and processes at a chemical facility. It helps chemical facilities to focus their attention on the most critical areas. The VAM-CF is not a quantitative analysis but, rather, compares relative security risks. If the risks are deemed too high, recommendations are developed for

Rainfall-induced landslide vulnerability Assessment in urban area reflecting Urban structure and building characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, C.; Cho, M.; Lee, D.

2017-12-01

Landslide vulnerability assessment methodology of urban area is proposed with urban structure and building charateristics which can consider total damage cost of climate impacts. We used probabilistic analysis method for modeling rainfall-induced shallow landslide susceptibility by slope stability analysis and Monte Carlo simulations. And We combined debris flows with considering spatial movements under topographical condition and built environmental condition. Urban vulnerability of landslide is assessed by two categories: physical demages and urban structure aspect. Physical vulnerability is related to buildings, road, other ubran infra. Urban structure vulnerability is considered a function of the socio-economic factors, trigger factor of secondary damage, and preparedness level of the local government. An index-based model is developed to evaluate the life and indirect damage under landslide as well as the resilience ability against disasters. The analysis was performed in a geographic information system (GIS) environment because GIS can deal efficiently with a large volume of spatial data. The results of the landslide susceptibility assessment were compared with the landslide inventory, and the proposed approach demonstrated good predictive performance. The general trend found in this study indicates that the higher population density areas under a weaker fiscal condition that are located at the downstream of mountainous areas are more vulnerable than the areas in opposite conditions.

Coastal vulnerability assessment of Dry Tortugas National Park (DRTO) to sea-level rise

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pendleton, Elizabeth A.; Thieler, E. Robert; Williams, S. Jeffress

2005-01-01

A coastal vulnerability index (CVI) was used to map the relative vulnerability of the coast to future sea-level rise within Dry Tortugas National Park in Florida. The CVI ranks the following in terms of their physical contribution to sea-level rise-related coastal change: geomorphology, regional coastal slope, rate of relative sea-level rise, historical shoreline change rates, mean tidal range and mean significant wave height. The rankings for each input variable were combined and an index value calculated for 1-minute grid cells covering the park. The CVI highlights those regions where the physical effects of sea-level rise might be the greatest. This approach combines the coastal system's susceptibility to change with its natural ability to adapt to changing environmental conditions, yielding a quantitative, although relative, measure of the park's natural vulnerability to the effects of sea-level rise. The CVI provides an objective technique for evaluation and long-term planning by scientists and park managers. Dry Tortugas National Park (DRTO) consists of relatively stable to washover-dominated portions of carbonate beach and man-made fortification. The areas within Dry Tortugas that are likely to be most vulnerable to sea-level rise are those with the highest rates of shoreline erosion and the highest wave energy.

Coastal vulnerability assessment of Cape Hatteras National Seashore (CAHA) to sea-level rise

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pendleton, Elizabeth A.; Theiler, E. Robert; Williams, S. Jeffress

2005-01-01

A coastal vulnerability index (CVI) was used to map the relative vulnerability of the coast to future sea-level rise within Cape Hatteras National Seashore (CAHA) in North Carolina. The CVI ranks the following in terms of their physical contribution to sea-level rise-related coastal change: geomorphology, regional coastal slope, rate of relative sea-level rise, historical shoreline change rates, mean tidal range, and mean significant wave height. The rankings for each variable were combined and an index value was calculated for 1-minute grid cells covering the park. The CVI highlights those regions where the physical effects of sea-level rise might be the greatest. This approach combines the coastal system's susceptibility to change with its natural ability to adapt to changing environmental conditions, yielding a quantitative, although relative, measure of the park's natural vulnerability to the effects of sea-level rise. The CVI provides an objective technique for evaluation and long-term planning by scientists and park managers. Cape Hatteras National Seashore consists of stable and washover dominated segments of barrier beach backed by wetland and marsh. The areas within Cape Hatteras that are likely to be most vulnerable to sea-level rise are those with the highest occurrence of overwash and the highest rates of shoreline change.

Coastal Vulnerability Assessment of Padre Island National Seashore (PAIS) to Sea-Level Rise

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pendleton, Elizabeth A.; Thieler, E. Robert; Williams, S. Jeffress; Beavers, Rebecca S.

2004-01-01

A coastal vulnerability index (CVI) was used to map the relative vulnerability of the coast to future sea-level rise within Padre Island National Seashore in Texas. The CVI ranks the following in terms of their physical contribution to sea-level rise-related coastal change: geomorphology, regional coastal slope, rate of relative sea-level rise, shoreline change rates, mean tidal range and mean significant wave height. The rankings for each variable were combined and an index value calculated for 1-minute grid cells covering the park. The CVI highlights those regions where the physical effects of sea-level rise might be the greatest. This approach combines the coastal system's susceptibility to change with its natural ability to adapt to changing environmental conditions, yielding a quantitative, although relative, measure of the park's natural vulnerability to the effects of sea-level rise. The CVI provides an objective technique for evaluation and long-term planning by scientists and park managers. Padre Island National Seashore consists of stable to washover dominated portions of barrier beach backed by wetland, marsh, tidal flat, or grassland. The areas within Padre that are likely to be most vulnerable to sea-level rise are those with the highest occurrence of overwash and the highest rates of shoreline change.

The Influence of Victim Vulnerability and Gender on Police Officers' Assessment of Intimate Partner Violence Risk.

PubMed

Storey, Jennifer E; Strand, Susanne

2017-01-01

This study investigated the influence of victim vulnerability factors and gender on risk assessment for intimate partner violence (IPV). 867 cases of male and female perpetrated IPV investigated by Swedish police officers using the Brief Spousal Assault Form for the Evaluation of Risk (B-SAFER) were examined. For male-to-female IPV, victim vulnerability factors were associated with summary risk judgments and risk management recommendations. For female-to-male IPV, vulnerability factors were more often omitted, and consistent associations were not found between vulnerability factors, summary risk judgments, and risk management. Results indicate that B-SAFER victim vulnerability factors can assist in assessing male-to-female IPV risk. Further research is necessary to examine the use of B-SAFER victim vulnerability factors for female-to-male IPV, as results showed victim vulnerability factors to be less relevant to officers' decision making, particularly their management recommendations. However, several variables external to the B-SAFER, such as the availability of management strategies may account for these findings.

Gulf Coast vulnerability assessment: Mangrove, tidal emergent marsh, barrier islands and oyster reef

USGS Publications Warehouse

Watson, Amanda; Reece, Joshua; Tirpak, Blair; Edwards, Cynthia Kallio; Geselbracht, Laura; Woodrey, Mark; LaPeyre, Megan K.; Dalyander, Patricia (Soupy)

2017-01-01

Climate, sea level rise, and urbanization are undergoing unprecedented levels of combined change and are expected to have large effects on natural resources—particularly along the Gulf of Mexico coastline (Gulf Coast). Management decisions to address these effects (i.e., adaptation) require an understanding of the relative vulnerability of various resources to these stressors. To meet this need, the four Landscape Conservation Cooperatives along the Gulf partnered with the Gulf of Mexico Alliance to conduct this Gulf Coast Vulnerability Assessment (GCVA). Vulnerability in this context incorporates exposure and sensitivity to threats (potential impact), coupled with the adaptive capacity to mitigate those threats. Potential impact and adaptive capacity reflect natural history features of target species and ecosystems. The GCVA used an expert opinion approach to qualitatively assess the vulnerability of four ecosystems: mangrove, oyster reef, tidal emergent marsh, and barrier islands, and a suite of wildlife species that depend on them. More than 50 individuals participated in the completion of the GCVA, facilitated via Ecosystem and Species Expert Teams. Of the species assessed, Kemp’s ridley sea turtle was identified as the most vulnerable species across the Gulf Coast. Experts identified the main threats as loss of nesting habitat to sea level rise, erosion, and urbanization. Kemp’s ridley also had an overall low adaptive capacity score due to their low genetic diversity, and higher nest site fidelity as compared to other assessed species. Tidal emergent marsh was the most vulnerable ecosystem, due in part to sea level rise and erosion. In general, avian species were more vulnerable than fish because of nesting habitat loss to sea level rise, erosion, and potential increases in storm surge. Assessors commonly indicated a lack of information regarding impacts due to projected changes in the disturbance regime, biotic interactions, and synergistic effects in

Assessing water resource system vulnerability to unprecedented hydrological drought using copulas to characterize drought duration and deficit

PubMed Central

Pflug, Georg; Hall, Jim W.; Hochrainer‐Stigler, Stefan

2015-01-01

Abstract Global climate models suggest an increase in evapotranspiration, changing storm tracks, and moisture delivery in many parts of the world, which are likely to cause more prolonged and severe drought, yet the weakness of climate models in modeling persistence of hydroclimatic variables and the uncertainties associated with regional climate projections mean that impact assessments based on climate model output may underestimate the risk of multiyear droughts. In this paper, we propose a vulnerability‐based approach to test water resource system response to drought. We generate a large number of synthetic streamflow series with different drought durations and deficits and use them as input to a water resource system model. Marginal distributions of the streamflow for each month are generated by bootstrapping the historical data, while the joint probability distributions of consecutive months are constructed using a copula‐based method. Droughts with longer durations and larger deficits than the observed record are generated by perturbing the copula parameter and by adopting an importance sampling strategy for low flows. In this way, potential climate‐induced changes in monthly hydrological persistence are factored into the vulnerability analysis. The method is applied to the London water system (England) to investigate under which drought conditions severe water use restrictions would need to be imposed. Results indicate that the water system is vulnerable to drought conditions outside the range of historical events. The vulnerability assessment results were coupled with climate model information to compare alternative water management options with respect to their vulnerability to increasingly long and severe drought. PMID:27609995

Assess and Adapt: Coordinated Ecoregional Forest Vulnerability Assessments Covering the Upper Midwest and Northeast in Support of Climate-informed Decision-making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swanston, C.; Janowiak, M.; Handler, S.; Butler, P.; Brandt, L.; Iverson, L.; Thompson, F.; Ontl, T.; Shannon, D.

2016-12-01

Forest ecosystem vulnerability assessments are rapidly becoming an integral component of forest management planning, in which there is increasing public expectation that even near-term activities explicitly incorporate information about anticipated climate impacts and risks. There is a clear desire among forest managers for targeted assessments that address critical questions about species and ecosystem vulnerabilities while delivering this information in an accessible format. We developed the Ecosystem Vulnerability Assessment Approach (EVAA), which combines multiple quantitative models, expert elicitation from scientists and land managers, and a templated report structure oriented to natural resource managers. The report structure includes relevant information on the contemporary landscape, past climate, future climate projections, impact model results, and a transparent vulnerability assessment of species and ecosystems. We have used EVAA in seven ecoregional assessments covering 246 million acres of forestland across the upper Midwest and Northeast (www.forestadaptation.org; five published, two in review). We convened a panel of local forest ecology and management experts in each assessment area to examine projected climate effects on system drivers, stressors, and dominant species, as well as the current adaptive capacity of the major ecoregional forest ecosystems. The panels provided a qualitative assessment of the vulnerability of forest ecosystems to climate change over the next century. Over 130 authors from dozens of organizations collaborated on these peer-reviewed assessment publications, which are delivered to thousands of stakeholders through live and recorded webinars, online briefs, and in-person trainings and seminars. The assessments are designed to be used with the Adaptation Workbook (www.adaptationworkbook.org), a planning tool that works at multiple scales and has generated more than 200 real-world forest adaptation demonstration projects.

AgMIP's Transdisciplinary Agricultural Systems Approach to Regional Integrated Assessment of Climate Impacts, Vulnerability, and Adaptation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Antle, John M.; Valdivia, Roberto O.; Boote, Kenneth J.; Janssen, Sander; Jones, James W.; Porter, Cheryl H.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Ruane, Alexander C.; Thorburn, Peter J.

2015-01-01

This chapter describes methods developed by the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) to implement a transdisciplinary, systems-based approach for regional-scale (local to national) integrated assessment of agricultural systems under future climate, biophysical, and socio-economic conditions. These methods were used by the AgMIP regional research teams in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia to implement the analyses reported in their respective chapters of this book. Additional technical details are provided in Appendix 1.The principal goal that motivates AgMIP's regional integrated assessment (RIA) methodology is to provide scientifically rigorous information needed to support improved decision-making by various stakeholders, ranging from local to national and international non-governmental and governmental organizations.

Vulnerability assessment of medieval civic towers as a tool for retrofitting design

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Casciati, Sara; Faravelli, Lucia

2008-07-08

The seismic vulnerability of an ancient civic bell-tower is studied. Rather than seeing it as an intermediate stage toward a risk analysis, the assessment of vulnerability is here pursued for the purpose of optimizing the retrofit design. The vulnerability curves are drawn by carrying out a single time history analysis of a model calibrated on the basis of experimental data. From the results of this analysis, the medians of three selected performance parameters are estimated, and they are used to compute, for each of them, the probability of exceeding or attaining the three corresponding levels of light, moderate and severemore » damage. The same numerical model is then used to incorporate the effects of several retrofitting solutions and to re-estimate the associated vulnerability curves. The ultimate goal is to provide a numerical tool able to drive the optimization process of a retrofit design by the comparison of the vulnerability estimates associated with the different retrofitting solutions.« less

Assessment of Coastal Vulnerability Through the Use of GIS Tools in South Sicily (Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anfuso, Giorgio; Martínez Del Pozo, José Ángel

2009-03-01

This study assessed coastal erosion vulnerability along a 90-km sector, which included both erosional and accretionary beaches, and different levels of human occupation. Two aerial photogrammetric flights were used to reconstruct coastal evolution between 1977 and 1999. During this period, extensive accretion was recorded updrift of human structures at harbors and ports, e.g., Scoglitti (105.6 m), Donnalucata (52.8 m), and Pozzallo (94.6 m). Conversely, erosion was recorded in downdrift areas, with maximum values at Modica Stream mouth (63.8 m) and Point Castellazzo (35.2 m). Assessments were subsequently divided into four categories ranging from “high erosion” to “accretion.” Several sources were examined to assess human activities and land use. The latter was mapped and divided into four categories, ranging from “very high” to “no capital” land use. Subsequently, coastal erosion vulnerability was assessed by combining land use categories with recorded coastline behavior. Results showed “very high” to “high” vulnerability along 5.8% and 16.6%, respectively, of the littoral, while 20.9% and 56.7%, respectively, was found to exhibit “medium” and “low/very low” vulnerability. A very good agreement between predicted coastal vulnerability and coastal trend had been observed over recent years. Furthermore, several human structures and activities are located within the “imminent collapse zone (ICZ)” which reached maximum values of 17.5 m at Modica Stream and 13.5 m at Point Braccetto.

Vulnerability assessment of water resources - Translating a theoretical concept to an operational framework using systems thinking approach in a changing climate: Case study in Ogallala Aquifer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anandhi, Aavudai; Kannan, Narayanan

2018-02-01

Water is an essential natural resource. Among many stressors, altered climate is exerting pressure on water resource systems, increasing its demand and creating a need for vulnerability assessments. The overall objective of this study was to develop a novel tool that can translate a theoretical concept (vulnerability of water resources (VWR)) to an operational framework mainly under altered temperature and precipitation, as well as for population change (smaller extent). The developed tool had three stages and utilized a novel systems thinking approach. Stage-1: Translating theoretical concept to characteristics identified from studies; Stage-2: Operationalizing characteristics to methodology in VWR; Stage-3: Utilizing the methodology for development of a conceptual modeling tool for VWR: WR-VISTA (Water Resource Vulnerability assessment conceptual model using Indicators selected by System's Thinking Approach). The specific novelties were: 1) The important characteristics in VWR were identified in Stage-1 (target system, system components, scale, level of detail, data source, frameworks, and indicator); 2) WR-VISTA combined two vulnerability assessments frameworks: the European's Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response framework (DPSIR) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's framework (IPCC's); and 3) used systems thinking approaches in VWR for indicator selection. The developed application was demonstrated in Kansas (overlying the High Plains region/Ogallala Aquifer, considered the "breadbasket of the world"), using 26 indicators with intermediate level of detail. Our results indicate that the western part of the state is vulnerable from agricultural water use and the eastern part from urban water use. The developed tool can be easily replicated to other regions within and outside the US.

Combining demographic and genetic factors to assess population vulnerability in stream species

USGS Publications Warehouse

Erin L, Landguth; Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Jones, Leslie W.; Waples, Robin S.; Whited, Diane; Lowe, Winsor H.; Lucotch, John; Neville, Helen; Luikart, Gordon

2014-01-01

Accelerating climate change and other cumulative stressors create an urgent need to understand the influence of environmental variation and landscape features on the connectivity and vulnerability of freshwater species. Here, we introduce a novel modeling framework for aquatic systems that integrates spatially explicit, individual-based, demographic and genetic (demogenetic) assessments with environmental variables. To show its potential utility, we simulated a hypothetical network of 19 migratory riverine populations (e.g., salmonids) using a riverscape connectivity and demogenetic model (CDFISH). We assessed how stream resistance to movement (a function of water temperature, fluvial distance, and physical barriers) might influence demogenetic connectivity, and hence, population vulnerability. We present demographic metrics (abundance, immigration, and change in abundance) and genetic metrics (diversity, differentiation, and change in differentiation), and combine them into a single vulnerability index for identifying populations at risk of extirpation. We considered four realistic scenarios that illustrate the relative sensitivity of these metrics for early detection of reduced connectivity: (1) maximum resistance due to high water temperatures throughout the network, (2) minimum resistance due to low water temperatures throughout the network, (3) increased resistance at a tributary junction caused by a partial barrier, and (4) complete isolation of a tributary, leaving resident individuals only. We then applied this demogenetic framework using empirical data for a bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) metapopulation in the upper Flathead River system, Canada and USA, to assess how current and predicted future stream warming may influence population vulnerability. Results suggest that warmer water temperatures and associated barriers to movement (e.g., low flows, dewatering) are predicted to fragment suitable habitat for migratory salmonids, resulting in the loss

Threatened, endangered, and vulnerable species of terrestrial vertebrates in the Rocky Mountain Region

Treesearch

Deborah M. Finch

1991-01-01

This report describes the current status of 67 threatened, endangered, and vulnerable wildlife species in the Rocky Mountain Region of the U.S. Forest Service. Known or potential reasons for population declines and species susceptibility are identified; and distributions, habitats, specialized needs, and perceived threats of individual species are discusses.

Social vulnerability assessment using spatial multi-criteria analysis (SEVI model) and the Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI model) - a case study for Bucharest, Romania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Armaş, I.; Gavriş, A.

2013-06-01

In recent decades, the development of vulnerability frameworks has enlarged the research in the natural hazards field. Despite progress in developing the vulnerability studies, there is more to investigate regarding the quantitative approach and clarification of the conceptual explanation of the social component. At the same time, some disaster-prone areas register limited attention. Among these, Romania's capital city, Bucharest, is the most earthquake-prone capital in Europe and the tenth in the world. The location is used to assess two multi-criteria methods for aggregating complex indicators: the social vulnerability index (SoVI model) and the spatial multi-criteria social vulnerability index (SEVI model). Using the data of the 2002 census we reduce the indicators through a factor analytical approach to create the indices and examine if they bear any resemblance to the known vulnerability of Bucharest city through an exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA). This is a critical issue that may provide better understanding of the social vulnerability in the city and appropriate information for authorities and stakeholders to consider in their decision making. The study emphasizes that social vulnerability is an urban process that increased in a post-communist Bucharest, raising the concern that the population at risk lacks the capacity to cope with disasters. The assessment of the indices indicates a significant and similar clustering pattern of the census administrative units, with an overlap between the clustering areas affected by high social vulnerability. Our proposed SEVI model suggests adjustment sensitivity, useful in the expert-opinion accuracy.

BROAD-SCALE ASSESSMENT OF WETLAND VULNERABILITY USING GIS AND LANDSCAPE-ECOLOGICAL METRICS

EPA Science Inventory

Landscape-ecological indicators of ecosystem integrity are increasingly being sought for use in habitat suitability assessments, habitat vulnerability assessments, and as a means to set goals for restoration projects. We utilized currently available information from the Arkansas...

Vulnerability curves vs. vulnerability indicators: application of an indicator-based methodology for debris-flow hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papathoma-Köhle, Maria

2016-08-01

The assessment of the physical vulnerability of elements at risk as part of the risk analysis is an essential aspect for the development of strategies and structural measures for risk reduction. Understanding, analysing and, if possible, quantifying physical vulnerability is a prerequisite for designing strategies and adopting tools for its reduction. The most common methods for assessing physical vulnerability are vulnerability matrices, vulnerability curves and vulnerability indicators; however, in most of the cases, these methods are used in a conflicting way rather than in combination. The article focuses on two of these methods: vulnerability curves and vulnerability indicators. Vulnerability curves express physical vulnerability as a function of the intensity of the process and the degree of loss, considering, in individual cases only, some structural characteristics of the affected buildings. However, a considerable amount of studies argue that vulnerability assessment should focus on the identification of these variables that influence the vulnerability of an element at risk (vulnerability indicators). In this study, an indicator-based methodology (IBM) for mountain hazards including debris flow (Kappes et al., 2012) is applied to a case study for debris flows in South Tyrol, where in the past a vulnerability curve has been developed. The relatively "new" indicator-based method is being scrutinised and recommendations for its improvement are outlined. The comparison of the two methodological approaches and their results is challenging since both methodological approaches deal with vulnerability in a different way. However, it is still possible to highlight their weaknesses and strengths, show clearly that both methodologies are necessary for the assessment of physical vulnerability and provide a preliminary "holistic methodological framework" for physical vulnerability assessment showing how the two approaches may be used in combination in the future.

Multi-scale quantitative vulnerability assessment of buildings towards debris-flows: an application to Fella River Basin, Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liliana Ciurean, Roxana; Hussin, Haydar; Glade, Thomas; van Westen, Cees; Papathoma-Köhle, Maria

2015-04-01

In physical vulnerability assessments, selection of working tools and methods is dependent not only on practical applications or decision question and data availability, but also on the scale of investigation. The aim of this study is to implement and compare two methodologies for assessing vulnerability of buildings in Fella River Basin (Friuli-Venezia Giulia, Italy). In this region, a major rainfall event in August 2003 triggered more than a thousand debris flows and floods resulting in two casualties. Damages to buildings, communication and transport infrastructure exceeded 400 million euros of monetary losses. The approaches considered are developed based on two methods of estimating debris-flow intensities: (1) for the regional and local scale, the behavior and run-out of the flow event was reconstructed using numerical debris flow modeling (Flow-R and Flow2D, respectively) to generate physical outputs (extension, depth, impact pressure, velocities) and determine the areas where elements at risk can be impacted; (2) for the local scale, a second method uses orthophoto documentation acquired shortly after the 2003 event for determining the location of the debris deposition and its depth at each impacted building. An extensive building inventory comprising information about the material of construction, occupancy type and use was compiled by desktop mapping and field work. The significance of the calculated intensity values were investigated in terms of resulting physical damages which were quantified for each affected structure as the ratio between the monetary loss and the reconstruction value. Different empirical vulnerability curves were obtained as functions of debris flow depth and impact pressure, respectively. The obtained curves were lastly compared with existing ones from the literature and sources of uncertainty from data input and the models employed were studied and discussed. The results of this study can be applied to further local consequence

An integrated risk and vulnerability assessment framework for climate change and malaria transmission in East Africa.

PubMed

Onyango, Esther Achieng; Sahin, Oz; Awiti, Alex; Chu, Cordia; Mackey, Brendan

2016-11-11

Malaria is one of the key research concerns in climate change-health relationships. Numerous risk assessments and modelling studies provide evidence that the transmission range of malaria will expand with rising temperatures, adversely impacting on vulnerable communities in the East African highlands. While there exist multiple lines of evidence for the influence of climate change on malaria transmission, there is insufficient understanding of the complex and interdependent factors that determine the risk and vulnerability of human populations at the community level. Moreover, existing studies have had limited focus on the nature of the impacts on vulnerable communities or how well they are prepared to cope. In order to address these gaps, a systems approach was used to present an integrated risk and vulnerability assessment framework for studies of community level risk and vulnerability to malaria due to climate change. Drawing upon published literature on existing frameworks, a systems approach was applied to characterize the factors influencing the interactions between climate change and malaria transmission. This involved structural analysis to determine influential, relay, dependent and autonomous variables in order to construct a detailed causal loop conceptual model that illustrates the relationships among key variables. An integrated assessment framework that considers indicators of both biophysical and social vulnerability was proposed based on the conceptual model. A major conclusion was that this integrated assessment framework can be implemented using Bayesian Belief Networks, and applied at a community level using both quantitative and qualitative methods with stakeholder engagement. The approach enables a robust assessment of community level risk and vulnerability to malaria, along with contextually relevant and targeted adaptation strategies for dealing with malaria transmission that incorporate both scientific and community perspectives.

A framework for sea level rise vulnerability assessment for southwest U.S. military installations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chadwick, B.; Flick, Reinhard; Helly, J.; Nishikawa, Tracy; Pei, Fang Wang; O'Reilly, W.; Guza, R.; Bromirski, Peter; Young, A.; Crampton, W.; Wild, B.; Canner, I.

2011-01-01

We describe an analysis framework to determine military installation vulnerabilities under increases in local mean sea level as projected over the next century. The effort is in response to an increasing recognition of potential climate change ramifications for national security and recommendations that DoD conduct assessments of the impact on U.S. military installations of climate change. Results of the effort described here focus on development of a conceptual framework for sea level rise vulnerability assessment at coastal military installations in the southwest U.S. We introduce the vulnerability assessment in the context of a risk assessment paradigm that incorporates sources in the form of future sea level conditions, pathways of impact including inundation, flooding, erosion and intrusion, and a range of military installation specific receptors such as critical infrastructure and training areas. A unique aspect of the methodology is the capability to develop wave climate projections from GCM outputs and transform these to future wave conditions at specific coastal sites. Future sea level scenarios are considered in the context of installation sensitivity curves which reveal response thresholds specific to each installation, pathway and receptor. In the end, our goal is to provide a military-relevant framework for assessment of accelerated SLR vulnerability, and develop the best scientifically-based scenarios of waves, tides and storms and their implications for DoD installations in the southwestern U.S.

Vulnerability to global environmental changes in Argentina: opportunities for upgrading regional water resources management strategies.

PubMed

Bereciartua, P J

2005-01-01

There is evidence of the increasing economic losses from extreme natural events during the last decades. These facts, thought to be triggered by environmental changes coupled with inefficient management and policies, highlight particularly exposed and vulnerable regions worldwide. Argentina faces several challenges associated with global environmental change and climate variability, especially related to water resources management including extreme floods and droughts. At the same time, the country's production capacity (i.e. natural resource-based commodities) and future development opportunities are closely tied to the sustainable development of its natural resource endowments. Given that vulnerability is registered not only by exposure to hazards (perturbations and stresses), but also resides in the sensitivity and resilience of the system experiencing such hazards, Argentina will need to improve its water management capacities to reduce its vulnerability to climate variability and change. This paper presents the basic components of the vulnerability analysis and suggests how it can be used to define efficient water management options.

Vulnerabilities of national parks in the American Midwest to climate and land use changes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stroh, Esther D.; Struckhoff, Matthew A.; Shaver, David; Karstensen, Krista A.

2016-06-08

Many national parks in the American Midwest are surrounded by agricultural or urban areas or are in highly fragmented or rapidly changing landscapes. An environmental stressor is a physical, chemical, or biological condition that affects the functioning or productivity of species or ecosystems. Climate change is just one of many stressors on park natural resources; others include urbanization, land use change, air and water pollution, and so on. Understanding and comparing the relative vulnerability of a suite of parks to projected climate and land use changes is important for region-wide planning. A vulnerability assessment of 60 units in the 13-state U.S. National Park Service Midwestern administrative region to climate and land use change used existing data from multiple sources. Assessment included three components: individual park exposure (5 metrics), sensitivity (5 metrics), and constraints to adaptive capacity (8 metrics) under 2 future climate scenarios. The three components were combined into an overall vulnerability score. Metrics were measures of existing or projected conditions within park boundaries, within 10-kilometer buffers surrounding parks, and within ecoregions that contain or intersect them. Data were normalized within the range of values for all assessed parks, resulting in high, medium, and low relative rankings for exposure, sensitivity, constraints to adaptive capacity, and overall vulnerability. Results are consistent with assessments regarding patterns and rates of climate change nationwide but provide greater detail and relative risk for Midwestern parks. Park overall relative vulnerability did not differ between climate scenarios. Rankings for exposure, sensitivity, and constraints to adaptive capacity varied geographically and indicate regional conservation planning opportunities. The most important stressors for the most vulnerable Midwestern parks are those related to sensitivity (intrinsic characteristics of the park) and

Extinction vulnerability of coral reef fishes.

PubMed

Graham, Nicholas A J; Chabanet, Pascale; Evans, Richard D; Jennings, Simon; Letourneur, Yves; Aaron Macneil, M; McClanahan, Tim R; Ohman, Marcus C; Polunin, Nicholas V C; Wilson, Shaun K

2011-04-01

With rapidly increasing rates of contemporary extinction, predicting extinction vulnerability and identifying how multiple stressors drive non-random species loss have become key challenges in ecology. These assessments are crucial for avoiding the loss of key functional groups that sustain ecosystem processes and services. We developed a novel predictive framework of species extinction vulnerability and applied it to coral reef fishes. Although relatively few coral reef fishes are at risk of global extinction from climate disturbances, a negative convex relationship between fish species locally vulnerable to climate change vs. fisheries exploitation indicates that the entire community is vulnerable on the many reefs where both stressors co-occur. Fishes involved in maintaining key ecosystem functions are more at risk from fishing than climate disturbances. This finding is encouraging as local and regional commitment to fisheries management action can maintain reef ecosystem functions pending progress towards the more complex global problem of stabilizing the climate. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

Extinction vulnerability of coral reef fishes

PubMed Central

Graham, Nicholas A J; Chabanet, Pascale; Evans, Richard D; Jennings, Simon; Letourneur, Yves; Aaron MacNeil, M; McClanahan, Tim R; Öhman, Marcus C; Polunin, Nicholas V C; Wilson, Shaun K

2011-01-01

With rapidly increasing rates of contemporary extinction, predicting extinction vulnerability and identifying how multiple stressors drive non-random species loss have become key challenges in ecology. These assessments are crucial for avoiding the loss of key functional groups that sustain ecosystem processes and services. We developed a novel predictive framework of species extinction vulnerability and applied it to coral reef fishes. Although relatively few coral reef fishes are at risk of global extinction from climate disturbances, a negative convex relationship between fish species locally vulnerable to climate change vs. fisheries exploitation indicates that the entire community is vulnerable on the many reefs where both stressors co-occur. Fishes involved in maintaining key ecosystem functions are more at risk from fishing than climate disturbances. This finding is encouraging as local and regional commitment to fisheries management action can maintain reef ecosystem functions pending progress towards the more complex global problem of stabilizing the climate. PMID:21320260

Assessing climate change and health vulnerability at the local level: Travis County, Texas.

PubMed

Prudent, Natasha; Houghton, Adele; Luber, George

2016-10-01

We created a measure to help comprehend population vulnerability to potential flooding and excessive heat events using health, built environment and social factors. Through principal component analysis (PCA), we created non-weighted sum index scores of literature-reviewed social and built environment characteristics. We created baseline poor health measures using 1999-2005 age-adjusted cardiovascular and combined diabetes and hypertension mortality rates to correspond with social-built environment indices. We mapped US Census block groups by linked age-adjusted mortality and a PCA-created social-built environment index. The goal was to measure flooding and excessive heat event vulnerability as proxies for population vulnerability to climate change for Travis County, Texas. This assessment identified communities where baseline poor health, social marginalisation and built environmental impediments intersected. Such assessments may assist targeted interventions and improve emergency preparedness in identified vulnerable communities, while fostering resilience through the focus of climate change adaptation policies at the local level. No claim to original US government works. Journal compilation © 2016 Overseas Development Institute.

Prioritising watersheds on the basis of regional flood susceptibility and vulnerability in mountainous areas through the use of indicators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rogelis, Carolina; Werner, Micha

2013-04-01

capability of the watershed to transport debris flows. The combination of the morphometric and land use indicators resulted in a susceptibility indicator that was compared with the available records of past floods in the area. This showed that the use of the land use indicator significantly improves the susceptibility assessment. Vulnerability was assessed in terms of indicators representing physical exposure, fragility of the socio-economic system and lack of resilience to cope and recover. Principal component analysis was subsequently applied to reduce variables and provide a representation of each of their facets by a component. This resulted in a composite indicator of susceptibility and vulnerability for each of the 106 watersheds. The indicator was compared with the history of flash flood damage in the watersheds. Results show that the indicator is useful in applications at regional scales for preliminary assessment to differentiate at spatial level the degree of flood susceptibility and vulnerability. This provides an initial and qualitative risk outlook in the study area and can be used for planning and prioritization of further more detailed studies.

Southwest regional climate hub and California subsidiary hub assessment of climate change vulnerability and adaptation and mitigation strategies

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

This report describes the potential vulnerability of specialty crops, field crops, forests, and animal agriculture to climate-driven environmental changes. Here, vulnerability is defined as a function of exposure to climate change effects, sensitivity to these effects, and adaptive capacity. The exp...

Mapping human vulnerability to climate change in the Brazilian Amazon: The construction of a municipal vulnerability index

PubMed Central

Confalonieri, Ulisses; Madureira, Ana Paula; Duval, Isabela de Brito; dos Santos, Rhavena Barbosa; Margonari, Carina

2018-01-01

Vulnerability, understood as the propensity to be adversely affected, has attained importance in the context of climate change by helping to understand what makes populations and territories predisposed to its impacts. Conditions of vulnerability may vary depending on the characteristics of each territory studied—social, environmental, infrastructural, public policies, among others. Thus, the present study aimed to evaluate what makes the municipalities of the state of Amazonas, Brazil, vulnerable to climate change in the context of the largest tropical forest in the world, and which regions of the State are the most susceptible. A Municipal Vulnerability Index was developed, which was used to associate current socio-environmental characteristics of municipalities with climate change scenarios in order to identify those that may be most affected by climate change. The results showed that poor adaptive capacity and poverty had the most influence on current vulnerability of the municipalities of Amazonas with the most vulnerable areas being the southern, northern, and eastern regions of the state. When current vulnerability was related to future climate change projections, the most vulnerable areas were the northern, northeastern, extreme southern, and southwestern regions. From a socio-environmental and climatic point of view, these regions should be a priority for public policy efforts to reduce their vulnerability and prepare them to cope with the adverse aspects of climate change. PMID:29444086

Mapping human vulnerability to climate change in the Brazilian Amazon: The construction of a municipal vulnerability index.

PubMed

Menezes, Júlia Alves; Confalonieri, Ulisses; Madureira, Ana Paula; Duval, Isabela de Brito; Santos, Rhavena Barbosa Dos; Margonari, Carina

2018-01-01

Vulnerability, understood as the propensity to be adversely affected, has attained importance in the context of climate change by helping to understand what makes populations and territories predisposed to its impacts. Conditions of vulnerability may vary depending on the characteristics of each territory studied-social, environmental, infrastructural, public policies, among others. Thus, the present study aimed to evaluate what makes the municipalities of the state of Amazonas, Brazil, vulnerable to climate change in the context of the largest tropical forest in the world, and which regions of the State are the most susceptible. A Municipal Vulnerability Index was developed, which was used to associate current socio-environmental characteristics of municipalities with climate change scenarios in order to identify those that may be most affected by climate change. The results showed that poor adaptive capacity and poverty had the most influence on current vulnerability of the municipalities of Amazonas with the most vulnerable areas being the southern, northern, and eastern regions of the state. When current vulnerability was related to future climate change projections, the most vulnerable areas were the northern, northeastern, extreme southern, and southwestern regions. From a socio-environmental and climatic point of view, these regions should be a priority for public policy efforts to reduce their vulnerability and prepare them to cope with the adverse aspects of climate change.

Assessing vulnerability to invasion by nonnative plant species at multiple spatial scales

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stohlgren, T.J.; Chong, G.W.; Schell, L.D.; Rimar, K.A.; Otsuki, Yuka; Lee, M.; Kalkhan, M.A.; Villa, C.A.

2002-01-01

Basic information on where nonnative plant species have successfully invaded is lacking. We assessed the vulnerability of 22 vegetation types (25 sets of four plots in nine study areas) to nonnative plant invasions in the north–central United States. In general, habitats with high native species richness were more heavily invaded than species-poor habitats, low-elevation areas were more invaded than high-elevation areas, and riparian zones were more invaded than nearby upland sites. For the 100 1000-m2 plots (across all vegetation types), 50% of the variation in nonnative species richness was explained by longitude, latitude, native plant species richness, soil total percentage nitrogen, and mean maximum July temperature (n = 100 plots; P < 0.001). At the vegetation-type scale (n = 25 sets of four 1000-m2 plots/type), 64% of the variation in nonnative species richness was explained by native plant species richness, elevation, and October to June precipitation (P < 0.001). The foliar cover of nonnative species (log) was strongly positively correlated with the nonnative species richness at the plot scale (r = 0.77, P < 0.001) and vegetation-type scale (r = 0.83, P < 0.001). We concluded that, at the vegetation-type and regional scales in the north–central United States, (1) vegetation types rich in native species are often highly vulnerable to invasion by nonnative plant species; (2) where several nonnative species become established, nonnative species cover can substantially increase; (3) the attributes that maintain high native plant species richness (high light, water, nitrogen, and temperatures) also help maintain nonnative plant species richness; and (4) more care must be taken to preserve native species diversity in highly vulnerable habitats.

Assessment of floodplain vulnerability during extreme Mississippi River flood 2011

USGS Publications Warehouse

Goodwell, Allison E.; Zhu, Zhenduo; Dutta, Debsunder; Greenberg, Jonathan A.; Kumar, Praveen; Garcia, Marcelo H.; Rhoads, Bruce L.; Holmes, Robert R.; Parker, Gary; Berretta, David P.; Jacobson, Robert B.

2014-01-01

Regional change in the variability and magnitude of flooding could be a major consequence of future global climate change. Extreme floods have the capacity to rapidly transform landscapes and expose landscape vulnerabilities through highly variable spatial patterns of inundation, erosion, and deposition. We use the historic activation of the Birds Point-New Madrid Floodway during the Mississippi and Ohio River Flooding of 2011 as a scientifically unique stress experiment to analyze indicators of floodplain vulnerability. We use pre- and postflood airborne Light Detection and Ranging data sets to locate erosional and depositional hotspots over the 540 km2 agricultural Floodway. While riparian vegetation between the river and the main levee breach likely prevented widespread deposition, localized scour and deposition occurred near the levee breaches. Eroded gullies nearly 1 km in length were observed at a low ridge of a relict meander scar of the Mississippi River. Our flow modeling and spatial mapping analysis attributes this vulnerability to a combination of erodible soils, flow acceleration associated with legacy fluvial landforms, and a lack of woody vegetation to anchor soil and enhance flow resistance. Results from this study could guide future mitigation and adaptation measures in cases of extreme flooding.

Assessment of floodplain vulnerability during extreme Mississippi River flood 2011.

PubMed

Goodwell, Allison E; Zhu, Zhenduo; Dutta, Debsunder; Greenberg, Jonathan A; Kumar, Praveen; Garcia, Marcelo H; Rhoads, Bruce L; Holmes, Robert R; Parker, Gary; Berretta, David P; Jacobson, Robert B

2014-01-01

Regional change in the variability and magnitude of flooding could be a major consequence of future global climate change. Extreme floods have the capacity to rapidly transform landscapes and expose landscape vulnerabilities through highly variable spatial patterns of inundation, erosion, and deposition. We use the historic activation of the Birds Point-New Madrid Floodway during the Mississippi and Ohio River Flooding of 2011 as a scientifically unique stress experiment to analyze indicators of floodplain vulnerability. We use pre- and postflood airborne Light Detection and Ranging data sets to locate erosional and depositional hotspots over the 540 km(2) agricultural Floodway. While riparian vegetation between the river and the main levee breach likely prevented widespread deposition, localized scour and deposition occurred near the levee breaches. Eroded gullies nearly 1 km in length were observed at a low ridge of a relict meander scar of the Mississippi River. Our flow modeling and spatial mapping analysis attributes this vulnerability to a combination of erodible soils, flow acceleration associated with legacy fluvial landforms, and a lack of woody vegetation to anchor soil and enhance flow resistance. Results from this study could guide future mitigation and adaptation measures in cases of extreme flooding.

REGIONAL VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT - A SPECIAL ISSUE OF ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

Beginning in 1995, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA), Office of Research and Development has focused much of its ecological research in the Mid;.Atlantic as part of the Mid-Atlantic Integrated Assessment (MAlA). The goal of MAlA is to improve the assessability o...

From Risk Assessment to Risk Management: Matching Interventions to Adolescent Offenders’ Strengths and Vulnerabilities

PubMed Central

Singh, Jay P.; Desmarais, Sarah L.; Sellers, Brian G.; Hylton, Tatiana; Tirotti, Melissa; Van Dorn, Richard A.

2013-01-01

Though considerable research has examined the validity of risk assessment tools in predicting adverse outcomes in justice-involved adolescents, the extent to which risk assessments are translated into risk management strategies and, importantly, the association between this link and adverse outcomes has gone largely unexamined. To address these shortcomings, the Risk-Need-Responsivity (RNR) model was used to examine associations between identified strengths and vulnerabilities, interventions, and institutional outcomes for justice-involved youth. Data were collected from risk assessments completed using the Short-Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability: Adolescent Version (START:AV) for 120 adolescent offenders (96 boys and 24 girls). Interventions and outcomes were extracted from institutional records. Mixed evidence of adherence to RNR principles was found. Accordant to the risk principle, adolescent offenders judged to have more strengths had more strength-based interventions in their service plans, though adolescent offenders with more vulnerabilities did not have more interventions targeting their vulnerabilities. With respect to the need and responsivity principles, vulnerabilities and strengths identified as particularly relevant to the individual youth's risk of adverse outcomes were addressed in the service plans about half and a quarter of the time, respectively. Greater adherence to the risk and need principles was found to predict significantly the likelihood of externalizing outcomes. Findings suggest some gaps between risk assessment and risk management and highlight the potential usefulness of strength-based approaches to intervention. PMID:25346561

Groundwater Pollution and Vulnerability Assessment.

PubMed

Kurwadkar, Sudarshan

2017-10-01

Groundwater is a critical resource that serve as a source of drinking water to large human population and, provide long-term water for irrigation purposes. In recent years; however, this precious resource being increasingly threatened, due to natural and anthropogenic activities. A variety of contaminants of emerging concern such as pharmaceuticals and personal care products, perfluorinated compounds, endocrine disruptors, and biological agents detected in the groundwater sources of both developing and developed nations. In this review paper, various studies have been included that documented instances of groundwater pollution and vulnerability to emerging contaminants of concern, pesticides, heavy metals, and leaching potential of various organic and inorganic contaminants from poorly managed residual waste products (biosolids, landfills, latrines, and septic tanks etc.). Understanding vulnerability of groundwater to pollution is critical to maintain the integrity of groundwater. A section on managed artificial recharge studies is included to highlight the sustainable approaches to groundwater conservation, replenishment and sustainability. This review paper is the synthesis of studies published in last one year that either documented the pollution problems or evaluated the vulnerability of groundwater pollution.

Accounting for adaptive capacity and uncertainty in assessments of species' climate-change vulnerability.

PubMed

Wade, Alisa A; Hand, Brian K; Kovach, Ryan P; Luikart, Gordon; Whited, Diane C; Muhlfeld, Clint C

2017-02-01

Climate-change vulnerability assessments (CCVAs) are valuable tools for assessing species' vulnerability to climatic changes, yet failure to include measures of adaptive capacity and to account for sources of uncertainty may limit their effectiveness. We took a more comprehensive approach that incorporates exposure, sensitivity, and capacity to adapt to climate change. We applied our approach to anadromous steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) and nonanadromous bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus), threatened salmonids within the Columbia River Basin (U.S.A.). We quantified exposure on the basis of scenarios of future stream temperature and flow, and we represented sensitivity and capacity to adapt to climate change with metrics of habitat quality, demographic condition, and genetic diversity. Both species were found to be highly vulnerable to climate change at low elevations and in their southernmost habitats. However, vulnerability rankings varied widely depending on the factors (climate, habitat, demographic, and genetic) included in the CCVA and often differed for the 2 species at locations where they were sympatric. Our findings illustrate that CCVA results are highly sensitive to data inputs and that spatial differences can complicate multispecies conservation. Based on our results, we suggest that CCVAs be considered within a broader conceptual and computational framework and be used to refine hypotheses, guide research, and compare plausible scenarios of species' vulnerability to climate change. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

Beyond Vulnerability Assessment: Impact of Developments toward Local Adaptive Capacity in Kemijen City Village, Semarang City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jayanimitta, M. E.; Puspasari, D. A.; Widyahantari, R.; Kristina, D.; Ratnaningtyas, T.; Setionurjaya, A.; Anindita, Y. A.

2018-02-01

Vulnerability Assessment is usually used for assessing the ability of an area on facing disaster. In previous studies, the study of Vulnerability Assessment applied only quantitative method to show the vulnerability level. Therefore, this study attempts to add information reviews using qualitative method. Kemijen City Village is one of the administrative areas in the northern part of Semarang City affected by climate change. The residents have to adapt it by renovating and elevating their houses and other infrastructures to avoid floods. There are some development programs held by government, NGOs, and corporations such as Banger Polder Development, PLPBK, etc. It is interesting to know how big the vulnerability level of Kemijen on facing flood disasters, then how the projects can affect local adaptive capacity. To answer it, this research uses mixed-method approach. Vulnerability Assessment uses quantitative method by scoring indicators of Exposure, Sensitivity, and Adaptive Capacity, while the development impact uses qualitative method. The data were collected through interviews and FGD conducted in Joint Studio Course between Diponegoro University and University of Hawaii in October 2016. Non-physical programs such as community empowerment have more positive impacts on local adaptive capacity in Kemijen. Community participation is important for environmental sustainability that can not be done in a short time to educate the people.

Potential of 3D City Models to assess flood vulnerability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schröter, Kai; Bochow, Mathias; Schüttig, Martin; Nagel, Claus; Ross, Lutz; Kreibich, Heidi

2016-04-01

Vulnerability, as the product of exposure and susceptibility, is a key factor of the flood risk equation. Furthermore, the estimation of flood loss is very sensitive to the choice of the vulnerability model. Still, in contrast to elaborate hazard simulations, vulnerability is often considered in a simplified manner concerning the spatial resolution and geo-location of exposed objects as well as the susceptibility of these objects at risk. Usually, area specific potential flood loss is quantified on the level of aggregated land-use classes, and both hazard intensity and resistance characteristics of affected objects are represented in highly simplified terms. We investigate the potential of 3D City Models and spatial features derived from remote sensing data to improve the differentiation of vulnerability in flood risk assessment. 3D City Models are based on CityGML, an application scheme of the Geography Markup Language (GML), which represents the 3D geometry, 3D topology, semantics and appearance of objects on different levels of detail. As such, 3D City Models offer detailed spatial information which is useful to describe the exposure and to characterize the susceptibility of residential buildings at risk. This information is further consolidated with spatial features of the building stock derived from remote sensing data. Using this database a spatially detailed flood vulnerability model is developed by means of data-mining. Empirical flood damage data are used to derive and to validate flood susceptibility models for individual objects. We present first results from a prototype application in the city of Dresden, Germany. The vulnerability modeling based on 3D City Models and remote sensing data is compared i) to the generally accepted good engineering practice based on area specific loss potential and ii) to a highly detailed representation of flood vulnerability based on a building typology using urban structure types. Comparisons are drawn in terms of

Assessing community vulnerabilities to natural hazards on the Island of Hawaii

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nishioka, Chris; Delparte, Donna

2010-05-01

The island of Hawaii is susceptible to numerous natural hazards such as tsunamis, flooding, lava flow, earthquakes, hurricanes, landslides, wildfires and storm surge. The impact of a natural disaster on the island's communities has the potential to endanger peoples' lives and threaten critical infrastructure, homes, businesses and economic drivers such as tourism. A Geographic Information System (GIS) has the ability to assess community vulnerabilities by examining the spatial relationships between hazard zones, socioeconomic infrastructure and demographic data. By drawing together existing datasets, GIS was used to examine a number of community vulnerabilities. Key areas of interest were government services, utilities, property assets, industry and transportation. GIS was also used to investigate population dynamics in hazard zones. Identification of community vulnerabilities from GIS analysis can support mitigation measures and assist planning and response measures to natural hazards.

The Gulf Coast Vulnerability Assessment: Mangrove, Tidal Emergent Marsh, Barrier Islands, and Oyster Reef

USGS Publications Warehouse

Watson, Amanda; Reece, Joshua S.; Tirpak, Blair; Edwards, Cynthia Kallio; Geselbracht, Laura; Woodrey, Mark; LaPeyre, Megan K.; Dalyander, P. Soupy

2015-01-01

Climate, sea level rise, and urbanization are undergoing unprecedented levels of combined change and are expected to have large effects on natural resources—particularly along the Gulf of Mexico coastline (Gulf Coast). Management decisions to address these effects (i.e., adaptation) require an understanding of the relative vulnerability of various resources to these stressors. To meet this need, the four Landscape Conservation Cooperatives along the Gulf partnered with the Gulf of Mexico Alliance to conduct this Gulf Coast Vulnerability Assessment (GCVA). Vulnerability in this context incorporates the aspects of exposure and sensitivity to threats, coupled with the adaptive capacity to mitigate those threats. Potential impact and adaptive capacity reflect natural history features of target species and ecosystems. The GCVA used an expert opinion approach to qualitatively assess the vulnerability of four ecosystems: mangrove, oyster reef, tidal emergent marsh, and barrier islands, and a suite of wildlife species that depend on them. More than 50 individuals participated in the completion of the GCVA, facilitated via Ecosystem and Species Expert Teams. Of the species assessed, Kemp’s ridley sea turtle was identified as the most vulnerable species across the Gulf Coast. Experts identified the main threats as loss of nesting habitat to sea level rise, erosion, and urbanization. Kemp’s ridley also had an overall low adaptive capacity score due to their low genetic diversity, and higher nest site fidelity as compared to other assessed species. Tidal emergent marsh was the most vulnerable ecosystem, due in part to sea level rise and erosion. In general, avian species were more vulnerable than fish because of nesting habitat loss to sea level rise, erosion, and potential increases in storm surge. Assessors commonly indicated a lack of information regarding impacts due to projected changes in the disturbance regime, biotic interactions, and synergistic effects in both

Assessment of groundwater vulnerability to pollution: a combination of GIS, fuzzy logic and decision making techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gemitzi, Alexandra; Petalas, Christos; Tsihrintzis, Vassilios A.; Pisinaras, Vassilios

2006-03-01

The assessment of groundwater vulnerability to pollution aims at highlighting areas at a high risk of being polluted. This study presents a methodology, to estimate the risk of an aquifer to be polluted from concentrated and/or dispersed sources, which applies an overlay and index method involving several parameters. The parameters are categorized into three factor groups: factor group 1 includes parameters relevant to the internal aquifer system’s properties, thus determining the intrinsic aquifer vulnerability to pollution; factor group 2 comprises parameters relevant to the external stresses to the system, such as human activities and rainfall effects; factor group 3 incorporates specific geological settings, such as the presence of geothermal fields or salt intrusion zones, into the computation process. Geographical information systems have been used for data acquisition and processing, coupled with a multicriteria evaluation technique enhanced with fuzzy factor standardization. Moreover, besides assigning weights to factors, a second set of weights, i.e., order weights, has been applied to factors on a pixel by pixel basis, thus allowing control of the level of risk in the vulnerability determination and the enhancement of local site characteristics. Individual analysis of each factor group resulted in three intermediate groundwater vulnerability to pollution maps, which were combined in order to produce the final composite groundwater vulnerability map for the study area. The method has been applied in the region of Eastern Macedonia and Thrace (Northern Greece), an area of approximately 14,000 km2. The methodology has been tested and calibrated against the measured nitrate concentration in wells, in the northwest part of the study area, providing results related to the aggregation and weighting procedure.

Quantification of Road Network Vulnerability and Traffic Impacts to Regional Landslide Hazards.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Postance, Benjamin; Hillier, John; Dixon, Neil; Dijkstra, Tom

2015-04-01

Slope instability represents a prevalent hazard to transport networks. In the UK regional road networks are frequently disrupted by multiple slope failures triggered during intense precipitation events; primarily due to a degree of regional homogeneity of slope materials, geomorphology and weather conditions. It is of interest to examine how different locations and combinations of slope failure impact road networks, particularly in the context of projected climate change and a 40% increase in UK road demand by 2040. In this study an extensive number (>50 000) of multiple failure event scenarios are simulated within a dynamic micro simulation to assess traffic impacts during peak flow (7 - 10 AM). Possible failure locations are selected within the county of Gloucestershire (3150 km2) using historic failure sites and British Geological Survey GeoSure data. Initial investigations employ a multiple linear regression analyses to consider the severity of traffic impacts, as measured by time, in respect of spatial and topographical network characteristics including connectivity, density and capacity in proximity to failure sites; the network distance between disruptions in multiple failure scenarios is used to consider the effects of spatial clustering. The UK Department of Transport road travel demand and UKCP09 weather projection data to 2080 provide a suitable basis for traffic simulations and probabilistic slope stability assessments. Future work will thus focus on the development of a catastrophe risk model to simulate traffic impacts under various narratives of future travel demand and slope instability under climatic change. The results of this investigation shall contribute to the understanding of road network vulnerabilities and traffic impacts from climate driven slope hazards.

Vulnerability survival analysis: a novel approach to vulnerability management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farris, Katheryn A.; Sullivan, John; Cybenko, George

2017-05-01

Computer security vulnerabilities span across large, enterprise networks and have to be mitigated by security engineers on a routine basis. Presently, security engineers will assess their "risk posture" through quantifying the number of vulnerabilities with a high Common Vulnerability Severity Score (CVSS). Yet, little to no attention is given to the length of time by which vulnerabilities persist and survive on the network. In this paper, we review a novel approach to quantifying the length of time a vulnerability persists on the network, its time-to-death, and predictors of lower vulnerability survival rates. Our contribution is unique in that we apply the cox proportional hazards regression model to real data from an operational IT environment. This paper provides a mathematical overview of the theory behind survival analysis methods, a description of our vulnerability data, and an interpretation of the results.

Multidimensional Approach for Tsunami Vulnerability Assessment: Framing the Territorial Impacts in Two Municipalities in Portugal.

PubMed

Tavares, Alexandre Oliveira; Barros, José Leandro; Santos, Angela

2017-04-01

This study presents a new multidimensional methodology for tsunami vulnerability assessment that combines the morphological, structural, social, and tax component of vulnerability. This new approach can be distinguished from previous methodologies that focused primarily on the evaluation of potentially affected buildings and did not use tsunami numerical modeling. The methodology was applied to the Figueira da Foz and Vila do Bispo municipalities in Portugal. For each area, the potential tsunami-inundated areas were calculated considering the 1755 Lisbon tsunami, which is the greatest disaster caused by natural hazards that ever occurred in Portugal. Furthermore, the four components of the vulnerability were calculated to obtain a composite vulnerability index. This methodology enables us to differentiate the two areas in their vulnerability, highlighting the characteristics of the territory components. This methodology can be a starting point for the creation of a local assessment framework at the municipal scale related to tsunami risk. In addition, the methodology is an important support for the different local stakeholders. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

On the Science-Policy Bridge: Do Spatial Heat Vulnerability Assessment Studies Influence Policy?

PubMed Central

Wolf, Tanja; Chuang, Wen-Ching; McGregor, Glenn

2015-01-01

Human vulnerability to heat varies at a range of spatial scales, especially within cities where there can be noticeable intra-urban differences in heat risk factors. Mapping and visualizing intra-urban heat vulnerability offers opportunities for presenting information to support decision-making. For example the visualization of the spatial variation of heat vulnerability has the potential to enable local governments to identify hot spots of vulnerability and allocate resources and increase assistance to people in areas of greatest need. Recently there has been a proliferation of heat vulnerability mapping studies, all of which, to varying degrees, justify the process of vulnerability mapping in a policy context. However, to date, there has not been a systematic review of the extent to which the results of vulnerability mapping studies have been applied in decision-making. Accordingly we undertook a comprehensive review of 37 recently published papers that use geospatial techniques for assessing human vulnerability to heat. In addition, we conducted an anonymous survey of the lead authors of the 37 papers in order to establish the level of interaction between the researchers as science information producers and local authorities as information users. Both paper review and author survey results show that heat vulnerability mapping has been used in an attempt to communicate policy recommendations, raise awareness and induce institutional networking and learning, but has not as yet had a substantive influence on policymaking or preventive action. PMID:26512681

On the Science-Policy Bridge: Do Spatial Heat Vulnerability Assessment Studies Influence Policy?

PubMed

Wolf, Tanja; Chuang, Wen-Ching; McGregor, Glenn

2015-10-23

Human vulnerability to heat varies at a range of spatial scales, especially within cities where there can be noticeable intra-urban differences in heat risk factors. Mapping and visualizing intra-urban heat vulnerability offers opportunities for presenting information to support decision-making. For example the visualization of the spatial variation of heat vulnerability has the potential to enable local governments to identify hot spots of vulnerability and allocate resources and increase assistance to people in areas of greatest need. Recently there has been a proliferation of heat vulnerability mapping studies, all of which, to varying degrees, justify the process of vulnerability mapping in a policy context. However, to date, there has not been a systematic review of the extent to which the results of vulnerability mapping studies have been applied in decision-making. Accordingly we undertook a comprehensive review of 37 recently published papers that use geospatial techniques for assessing human vulnerability to heat. In addition, we conducted an anonymous survey of the lead authors of the 37 papers in order to establish the level of interaction between the researchers as science information producers and local authorities as information users. Both paper review and author survey results show that heat vulnerability mapping has been used in an attempt to communicate policy recommendations, raise awareness and induce institutional networking and learning, but has not as yet had a substantive influence on policymaking or preventive action.

Quantitative Assessment of Transportation Network Vulnerability with Dynamic Traffic Simulation Methods

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shekar, Venkateswaran; Fiondella, Lance; Chatterjee, Samrat

Transportation networks are critical to the social and economic function of nations. Given the continuing increase in the populations of cities throughout the world, the criticality of transportation infrastructure is expected to increase. Thus, it is ever more important to mitigate congestion as well as to assess the impact disruptions would have on individuals who depend on transportation for their work and livelihood. Moreover, several government organizations are responsible for ensuring transportation networks are available despite the constant threat of natural disasters and terrorist activities. Most of the previous transportation network vulnerability research has been performed in the context ofmore » static traffic models, many of which are formulated as traditional optimization problems. However, transportation networks are dynamic because their usage varies over time. Thus, more appropriate methods to characterize the vulnerability of transportation networks should consider their dynamic properties. This paper presents a quantitative approach to assess the vulnerability of a transportation network to disruptions with methods from traffic simulation. Our approach can prioritize the critical links over time and is generalizable to the case where both link and node disruptions are of concern. We illustrate the approach through a series of examples. Our results demonstrate that the approach provides quantitative insight into the time varying criticality of links. Such an approach could be used as the objective function of less traditional optimization methods that use simulation and other techniques to evaluate the relative utility of a particular network defense to reduce vulnerability and increase resilience.« less

Structural vulnerability assessment using reliability of slabs in avalanche area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Favier, Philomène; Bertrand, David; Eckert, Nicolas; Naaim, Mohamed

2013-04-01

Improvement of risk assessment or hazard zoning requires a better understanding of the physical vulnerability of structures. To consider natural hazard issue such as snow avalanches, once the flow is characterized, highlight on the mechanical behaviour of the structure is a decisive step. A challenging approach is to quantify the physical vulnerability of impacted structures according to various avalanche loadings. The main objective of this presentation is to introduce methodology and outcomes regarding the assessment of vulnerability of reinforced concrete buildings using reliability methods. Reinforced concrete has been chosen as it is one of the usual material used to build structures exposed to potential avalanche loadings. In avalanche blue zones, structures have to resist to a pressure up to 30kPa. Thus, by providing systematic fragility relations linked to the global failure of the structure, this method may serve the avalanche risk assessment. To do so, a slab was numerically designed. It represented the avalanche facing wall of a house. Different configuration cases of the element in stake have been treated to quantify numerical aspects of the problem, such as the boundary conditions or the mechanical behaviour of the structure. The structure is analysed according to four different limit states, semi-local and global failures are considered to describe the slab behaviour. The first state is attained when cracks appear in the tensile zone, then the two next states are described consistent with the Eurocode, the final state is the total collapse of the structure characterized by the yield line theory. Failure probability is estimated in accordance to the reliability framework. Monte Carlo simulations were conducted to quantify the fragility to different loadings. Sensitivity of models in terms of input distributions were defined with statistical tools such as confidence intervals and Sobol's indexes. Conclusion and discussion of this work are established to

A vulnerability assessment for water availability related to the impacts of climate change in Banyuasin Valley, South Sumatra, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamdani, Y.

2018-03-01

Banyuasin Valley region is located in lowland areas that is potentially subjected to hazard of flooding and submergence. The indication of reduction hazard in water availability is in the period of 2010 with decreasing value of Total Run Off at - 500 mm/year and in the period 2030 is the lowest decline of the region Banyuasin with a value of -100 mm/year. Tanjung Api-api port, built in this area, is feared to be vulnerable to the availability of clean water due to the impact of climate change. The vulnerability components consist of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. The formula means vulnerability to a certain hazard is strengthened by its exposure and its sensitivity and decreased by its adaptive capacity. The results of this study showed that water availability in the baseline condition is in low vulnerability (47.91%) whereas, at the projection condition, vulnerability is in the category of moderate vulnerability (81.28%).

From Risk Towards Resilience: Assessing Vulnerability and Adaptability to Climate Change in the Mekong Delta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ling, F. H.; Yasuhara, K.; Tamura, M.; Tabayashi, Y.

2012-12-01

While efforts to mainstream climate adaptation have only begun in recent years, many developing regions are already taking measures to proof themselves from various natural disasters, including storm surges, flooding, land subsidence, and erosion. In the Asia-Pacific region, one of the most vulnerable in the world, climate resilience is urgently needed due to sea level rise and the increasing frequency and intensity of climate events. Yet, many regions and communities are unprepared due to insufficient awareness of disaster risks. In order to utilize the science of the changing environment more effectively, there is a critical need to understand the social context and perception of those who are affected by climate change. Using the Mekong Delta region in Vietnam as an example, we discuss our current efforts to develop a vulnerability and adaptation index for building climate resilience in the Asia-Pacific Region. A survey of current adaptation efforts in this region will be shown and preliminary findings from our survey to understand the perception of disaster risk in this region will be discussed.

Participatory Approach to Long-Term Socio-Economic Scenarios as Building Block of a Local Vulnerability and Risk Assessment Tool - The Case Study Lienz (East-Tyrol)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meyer, Ina; Eder, Brigitte; Hama, Michiko; Leitner, Markus

2016-04-01

Risks associated with climate change are mostly still understood and analyzed in a sector- or hazard-specific and rarely in a systemic, dynamic and scenario-based manner. In addition, socio-economic trends are often neglected in local vulnerability and risk assessments although they represent potential key determinants of risk and vulnerability. The project ARISE (Adaptation and Decision Support via Risk Management Through Local Burning Embers) aims at filling this gap by applying a participatory approach to socio-economic scenario building as building block of a local vulnerability assessment and risk management tool. Overall, ARISE aims at developing a decision support system for climate-sensitive iterative risk management as a key adaptation tool for the local level using Lienz in the East-Tyrol as a test-site City. One central building block is participatory socio-economic scenario building that - together with regionalized climate change scenarios - form a centrepiece in the process-oriented assessment of climate change risks and vulnerability. Major vulnerabilities and risks may stem from the economic performance, the socio-economic or socio-demographic developments or changes in asset exposition and not from climate change impacts themselves. The IPCC 5th assessment report underlines this and states that for most economic sectors, the impact of climate change may be small relative to the impacts of other driving forces such as changes in population growth, age, income, technology, relative prices, lifestyle, regulation, governance and many other factors in the socio-economy (Arent et al., 2014). The paper presents the methodology, process and results with respect to the building of long-term local socio-economic scenarios for the City of Lienz and the surrounding countryside. Scenarios were developed in a participatory approach using a scenario workshop that involved major stakeholders from the region. Participatory approaches are increasingly recognized as

How useful are Swiss flood insurance data for flood vulnerability assessments?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Röthlisberger, Veronika; Bernet, Daniel; Zischg, Andreas; Keiler, Margreth

2015-04-01

vulnerability and resilience assessments. For instance, the collation of insurance loss data with event documentations containing information on flood intensity allows to develop damage curves. Flood damage curves are fundamental for many risk analysis methodologies but to date only few are published and the spatial and temporal scope of their applicability is subject of discussion. Another possibility of using insurance data lies in the field of assessment exposure, where the analysis of comprehensive insurance portfolio data can improve the understanding of the physical but also the socio-economical vulnerability of a society. The poster spotlights key opportunities and challenges scientists are facing when using insurance data for flood vulnerability assessments.

New England and northern New York forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment and synthesis: a report from the New England Climate Change Response Framework project

Treesearch

Maria K. Janowiak; Anthony W. D' Amato; Christopher W. Swanston; Louis Iverson; Frank R. Thompson; William D. Dijak; Stephen Matthews; Matthew P. Peters; Anantha Prasad; Jacob S. Fraser; Leslie A. Brandt; Patricia Butler-Leopold; Stephen D. Handler; P. Danielle Shannon; Diane Burbank; John Campbell; Charles Cogbill; Matthew J. Duveneck; Marla R. Emery; Nicholas Fisichelli; Jane Foster; Jennifer Hushaw; Laura Kenefic; Amanda Mahaffey; Toni Lyn Morelli; Nicholas J. Reo; Paul G. Schaberg; K. Rogers Simmons; Aaron Weiskittel; Sandy Wilmot; David Hollinger; Erin Lane; Lindsey Rustad; Pamela H. Templer

2018-01-01

Forest ecosystems will face direct and indirect impacts from a changing climate over the 21st century. This assessment evaluates the vulnerability of forest ecosystems across the New England region (Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, northern New York, Rhode Island, and Vermont) under a range of future climates. We synthesized and summarized information...

Combining analytical frameworks to assess livelihood vulnerability to climate change and analyse adaptation options.

PubMed

Reed, M S; Podesta, G; Fazey, I; Geeson, N; Hessel, R; Hubacek, K; Letson, D; Nainggolan, D; Prell, C; Rickenbach, M G; Ritsema, C; Schwilch, G; Stringer, L C; Thomas, A D

2013-10-01

Experts working on behalf of international development organisations need better tools to assist land managers in developing countries maintain their livelihoods, as climate change puts pressure on the ecosystem services that they depend upon. However, current understanding of livelihood vulnerability to climate change is based on a fractured and disparate set of theories and methods. This review therefore combines theoretical insights from sustainable livelihoods analysis with other analytical frameworks (including the ecosystem services framework, diffusion theory, social learning, adaptive management and transitions management) to assess the vulnerability of rural livelihoods to climate change. This integrated analytical framework helps diagnose vulnerability to climate change, whilst identifying and comparing adaptation options that could reduce vulnerability, following four broad steps: i) determine likely level of exposure to climate change, and how climate change might interact with existing stresses and other future drivers of change; ii) determine the sensitivity of stocks of capital assets and flows of ecosystem services to climate change; iii) identify factors influencing decisions to develop and/or adopt different adaptation strategies, based on innovation or the use/substitution of existing assets; and iv) identify and evaluate potential trade-offs between adaptation options. The paper concludes by identifying interdisciplinary research needs for assessing the vulnerability of livelihoods to climate change.

Combining analytical frameworks to assess livelihood vulnerability to climate change and analyse adaptation options☆

PubMed Central

Reed, M.S.; Podesta, G.; Fazey, I.; Geeson, N.; Hessel, R.; Hubacek, K.; Letson, D.; Nainggolan, D.; Prell, C.; Rickenbach, M.G.; Ritsema, C.; Schwilch, G.; Stringer, L.C.; Thomas, A.D.

2013-01-01

Experts working on behalf of international development organisations need better tools to assist land managers in developing countries maintain their livelihoods, as climate change puts pressure on the ecosystem services that they depend upon. However, current understanding of livelihood vulnerability to climate change is based on a fractured and disparate set of theories and methods. This review therefore combines theoretical insights from sustainable livelihoods analysis with other analytical frameworks (including the ecosystem services framework, diffusion theory, social learning, adaptive management and transitions management) to assess the vulnerability of rural livelihoods to climate change. This integrated analytical framework helps diagnose vulnerability to climate change, whilst identifying and comparing adaptation options that could reduce vulnerability, following four broad steps: i) determine likely level of exposure to climate change, and how climate change might interact with existing stresses and other future drivers of change; ii) determine the sensitivity of stocks of capital assets and flows of ecosystem services to climate change; iii) identify factors influencing decisions to develop and/or adopt different adaptation strategies, based on innovation or the use/substitution of existing assets; and iv) identify and evaluate potential trade-offs between adaptation options. The paper concludes by identifying interdisciplinary research needs for assessing the vulnerability of livelihoods to climate change. PMID:25844020

Projecting Drivers of Human Vulnerability under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways.

PubMed

Rohat, Guillaume

2018-03-19

The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) are the new set of alternative futures of societal development that inform global and regional climate change research. They have the potential to foster the integration of socioeconomic scenarios within assessments of future climate-related health impacts. To date, such assessments have primarily superimposed climate scenarios on current socioeconomic conditions only. Until now, the few assessments of future health risks that employed the SSPs have focused on future human exposure-i.e., mainly future population patterns-, neglecting future human vulnerability. This paper first explores the research gaps-mainly linked to the paucity of available projections-that explain such a lack of consideration of human vulnerability under the SSPs. It then highlights the need for projections of socioeconomic variables covering the wide range of determinants of human vulnerability, available at relevant spatial and temporal scales, and accounting for local specificities through sectoral and regional extended versions of the global SSPs. Finally, this paper presents two innovative methods of obtaining and computing such socioeconomic projections under the SSPs-namely the scenario matching approach and an approach based on experts' elicitation and correlation analyses-and applies them to the case of Europe. They offer a variety of possibilities for practical application, producing projections at sub-national level of various drivers of human vulnerability such as demographic and social characteristics, urbanization, state of the environment, infrastructure, health status, and living arrangements. Both the innovative approaches presented in this paper and existing methods-such as the spatial disaggregation of existing projections and the use of sectoral models-show great potential to enhance the availability of relevant projections of determinants of human vulnerability. Assessments of future climate-related health impacts should thus rely

Coastal Vulnerability and risk assessment of infrastructures, natural and cultural heritage sites in Greece.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alexandrakis, George; Kampanis, Nikolaos

2016-04-01

The majority of human activities are concentrated around coastal areas, making coastline retreat, a significant threat to coastal infrastructure, thus increasing protection cost and investment revenue losses. In this study the management of coastal areas in terms of protecting coastal infrastructures, cultural and environmental heritage sites, through risk assessment analysis is been made. The scope is to provide data for spatial planning for future developments in the coastal zone and the protection of existing ones. Also to determine the impact of coastal changes related to the loss of natural resources, agricultural land and beaches. The analysis is based on a multidisciplinary approach, combining environmental, spatial and economic data. This can be implemented by integrating the assessment of vulnerability of coasts, the spatial distribution and structural elements of coastal infrastructure (transport, tourism, and energy) and financial data by region, in a spatial database. The approach is based on coastal vulnerability estimations, considering sea level rise, land loss, extreme events, safety, adaptability and resilience of infrastructure and natural sites. It is based on coupling of environmental indicators and econometric models to determine the socio-economic impact in coastal infrastructure, cultural and environmental heritage sites. The indicators include variables like the coastal geomorphology; coastal slope; relative sea-level rise rate; shoreline erosion/accretion rate; mean tidal range and mean wave height. The anthropogenic factors include variables like settlements, sites of cultural heritage, transport networks, land uses, significance of infrastructure (e.g. military, power plans) and economic activities. The analysis in performed by a GIS application. The forcing variables are determined with the use of sub-indices related to coastal geomorphology, climate and wave variables and the socioeconomics of the coastal zone. The Greek coastline in

Groundwater vulnerability assessment for organic compounds: fuzzy multi-criteria approach for Mexico city.

PubMed

Mazari-Hiriart, Marisa; Cruz-Bello, Gustavo; Bojórquez-Tapia, Luis A; Juárez-Marusich, Lourdes; Alcantar-López, Georgina; Marín, Luis E; Soto-Galera, Ernesto

2006-03-01

This study was based on a groundwater vulnerability assessment approach implemented for the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA). The approach is based on a fuzzy multi-criteria procedure integrated in a geographic information system. The approach combined the potential contaminant sources with the permeability of geological materials. Initially, contaminant sources were ranked by experts through the Analytic Hierarchy Process. An aggregated contaminant sources map layer was obtained through the simple additive weighting method, using a scalar multiplication of criteria weights and binary maps showing the location of each source. A permeability map layer was obtained through the reclassification of a geology map using the respective hydraulic conductivity values, followed by a linear normalization of these values against a compatible scale. A fuzzy logic procedure was then applied to transform and combine the two map layers, resulting in a groundwater vulnerability map layer of five classes: very low, low, moderate, high, and very high. Results provided a more coherent assessment of the policy-making priorities considered when discussing the vulnerability of groundwater to organic compounds. The very high and high vulnerability areas covered a relatively small area (71 km(2) or 1.5% of the total study area), allowing the identification of the more critical locations. The advantage of a fuzzy logic procedure is that it enables the best possible use to be made of the information available regarding groundwater vulnerability in the MCMA.

Regional risk assessment approaches to land planning for industrial polluted areas in China: the Hulunbeier region case study.

PubMed

Li, Daiqing; Zhang, Chen; Pizzol, Lisa; Critto, Andrea; Zhang, Haibo; Lv, Shihai; Marcomini, Antonio

2014-04-01

The rapid industrial development and urbanization processes that occurred in China over the past 30years has increased dramatically the consumption of natural resources and raw materials, thus exacerbating the human pressure on environmental ecosystems. In result, large scale environmental pollution of soil, natural waters and urban air were recorded. The development of effective industrial planning to support regional sustainable economy development has become an issue of serious concern for local authorities which need to select safe sites for new industrial settlements (i.e. industrial plants) according to assessment approaches considering cumulative impacts, synergistic pollution effects and risks of accidental releases. In order to support decision makers in the development of efficient and effective regional land-use plans encompassing the identification of suitable areas for new industrial settlements and areas in need of intervention measures, this study provides a spatial regional risk assessment methodology which integrates relative risk assessment (RRA) and socio-economic assessment (SEA) and makes use of spatial analysis (GIS) methodologies and multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) techniques. The proposed methodology was applied to the Chinese region of Hulunbeier which is located in eastern Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, adjacent to the Republic of Mongolia. The application results demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed methodology in the identification of the most hazardous and risky industrial settlements, the most vulnerable regional receptors and the regional districts which resulted to be the most relevant for intervention measures since they are characterized by high regional risk and excellent socio-economic development conditions. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessment of vulnerability in karst aquifers using a quantitative integrated numerical model: catchment characterization and high resolution monitoring - Application to semi-arid regions- Lebanon.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doummar, Joanna; Aoun, Michel; Andari, Fouad

2016-04-01

Karst aquifers are highly heterogeneous and characterized by a duality of recharge (concentrated; fast versus diffuse; slow) and a duality of flow which directly influences groundwater flow and spring responses. Given this heterogeneity in flow and infiltration, karst aquifers do not always obey standard hydraulic laws. Therefore the assessment of their vulnerability reveals to be challenging. Studies have shown that vulnerability of aquifers is highly governed by recharge to groundwater. On the other hand specific parameters appear to play a major role in the spatial and temporal distribution of infiltration on a karst system, thus greatly influencing the discharge rates observed at a karst spring, and consequently the vulnerability of a spring. This heterogeneity can only be depicted using an integrated numerical model to quantify recharge spatially and assess the spatial and temporal vulnerability of a catchment for contamination. In the framework of a three-year PEER NSF/USAID funded project, the vulnerability of a karst catchment in Lebanon is assessed quantitatively using a numerical approach. The aim of the project is also to refine actual evapotranspiration rates and spatial recharge distribution in a semi arid environment. For this purpose, a monitoring network was installed since July 2014 on two different pilot karst catchment (drained by Qachqouch Spring and Assal Spring) to collect high resolution data to be used in an integrated catchment numerical model with MIKE SHE, DHI including climate, unsaturated zone, and saturated zone. Catchment characterization essential for the model included geological mapping and karst features (e.g., dolines) survey as they contribute to fast flow. Tracer experiments were performed under different flow conditions (snow melt and low flow) to delineate the catchment area, reveal groundwater velocities and response to snowmelt events. An assessment of spring response after precipitation events allowed the estimation of the

Integrated assessment of urban vulnerability and resilience. Case study: Targu Ocna town, Romania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grozavu, Adrian; Bănică, Alexandru

2015-04-01

Vulnerability assessment frequently emphasizes the internal fragility of a system in relation to a given hazard, when compared to similar systems or to a reference standard. This internal fragility, either biophysical or structural, may affect the ability to predict, to prepare for and cope with or to recover from the manifestation of a risk phenomenon. Thus, the vulnerability is highly related to resilience and adaptability. There is no single methodology for vulnerability and resilience analysis, their assessment can only be made by identifying and integrating indicators which are compatible with the analysis level and the geographic, economic and social features of a certain area. An integrated model of evaluating vulnerability and resilience capacity is being proposed in this paper for Targu Ocna, a small mining settlement in the Eastern Carpathians of Romania, that became in the last years a tourist town and acts within the surrounding territory as a dynamic local pole. Methodologically, the following steps and operations were considered: identifying potential hazards, identifying elements at risk, identifying proper indicators and integrating them in order to evaluate the general vulnerability and resilience. The inventory of elements at risk (the number of people potentially affected, residential or other functionalities buildings, roads and other infrastructure elements etc.) was made based on General Urban Plan, topographic maps (scale 1:5000), ortophotos from 2003 and 2008 and field mapping and researches. Further on, several vulnerability indicators were identified and included within the analytical approach: dependency ratio, income, quality of the habitat and technical urban facilities, environment quality showing differentiated sensitivity. Issues such as preparedness and preventive measures (priority areas within the risk prevention plans), coping ability (networks' geometry and connectivity, emergency utilities and services accessibility) and the

Beyond the Continent: Creating an Independent Scientific Assessment Process for the Hawai`i and U.S. Affiliated Pacific Islands Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grecni, Z. N.; Keener, V. W.

2017-12-01

An external evaluation found that the inclusion of users of climate information and diverse regional experts in developing the 2012 Pacific Islands Regional Climate Assessment was a key factor in the report's perceived credibility and usefulness (Moser 2013). The 2012 assessment is seen as a foundational summary for Hawai`i and the U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands and is still used in vulnerability assessments and to support decisions by public- and private-sector actors. Recently, lessons learned from the 2012 assessment process were applied in engaging technical experts and potential future users in developing a chapter for the U.S. National Climate Assessment, as a regional update that builds on previous assessment activities. In the absence of downscaled climate projection scenarios and products available to the contiguous U.S., the Pacific Islands chapter continued to draw on projections from regional climate models and extensive user engagement. Through surveys, webinars, technical sectoral workshops, and peer review networks, the regional author team received input from a range of stakeholders. In particular, engagement aimed to identify key risks in sectors of importance to the Hawai`i and U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands region and cases in which stakeholder groups are already implementing measures toward resilience and adaptation. Data collection began during the chapter development process and will continue at the release of the 4th National Climate Assessment in 2018, with the aim of evaluating how stakeholder engagement affects the assessment's usefulness in assisting island communities to understand risks and vulnerabilities and review potential adaptation strategies.

Assessments of species' vulnerability to climate change: From pseudo to science

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wade, Alisa A.; Hand, Brian K.; Kovach, Ryan; Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Waples, Robin S.; Luikart, Gordon

2017-01-01

Climate change vulnerability assessments (CCVAs) are important tools to plan for and mitigate potential impacts of climate change. However, CCVAs often lack scientific rigor, which can ultimately lead to poor conservation prioritization and associated ecological and economic costs. We discuss the need to improve comparability and consistency of CCVAs and either validate their findings or improve assessment of CCVA uncertainty and sensitivity to methodological assumptions.

Latin hypercube approach to estimate uncertainty in ground water vulnerability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gurdak, J.J.; McCray, J.E.; Thyne, G.; Qi, S.L.

2007-01-01

A methodology is proposed to quantify prediction uncertainty associated with ground water vulnerability models that were developed through an approach that coupled multivariate logistic regression with a geographic information system (GIS). This method uses Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) to illustrate the propagation of input error and estimate uncertainty associated with the logistic regression predictions of ground water vulnerability. Central to the proposed method is the assumption that prediction uncertainty in ground water vulnerability models is a function of input error propagation from uncertainty in the estimated logistic regression model coefficients (model error) and the values of explanatory variables represented in the GIS (data error). Input probability distributions that represent both model and data error sources of uncertainty were simultaneously sampled using a Latin hypercube approach with logistic regression calculations of probability of elevated nonpoint source contaminants in ground water. The resulting probability distribution represents the prediction intervals and associated uncertainty of the ground water vulnerability predictions. The method is illustrated through a ground water vulnerability assessment of the High Plains regional aquifer. Results of the LHS simulations reveal significant prediction uncertainties that vary spatially across the regional aquifer. Additionally, the proposed method enables a spatial deconstruction of the prediction uncertainty that can lead to improved prediction of ground water vulnerability. ?? 2007 National Ground Water Association.

Vulnerability assessment in a participatory approach to design and implement community based adaptation to drought in the Peruvian Andes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lasage, Ralph; Muis, Sanne; Sardella, Carolina; van Drunen, Michiel; Verburg, Peter; Aerts, Jeroen

2015-04-01

The livelihoods of people in the Andes are expected to be affected by climate change due to their dependence on glacier meltwater during the growing season. The observed decrease in glacier volume over the last few decades is likely to accelerate during the current century, which will affect water availability in the region. This paper presents the implementation of an approach for the participatory development of community-based adaptation measures to cope with the projected impacts of climate change, which was implemented jointly by the local community and by a team consisting of an NGO, Peruvian ministry of environment, research organisations and a private sector organisation. It bases participatory design on physical measurements, modelling and a vulnerability analysis. Vulnerability to drought is made operational for households in a catchment of the Ocoña river basin in Peru. On the basis of a household survey we explore how a vulnerability index (impacts divided by the households' perceived adaptive capacity) can be used to assess the distribution of vulnerability over households in a sub catchment. The socio-economic factors water entitlement, area of irrigated land, income and education are all significantly correlate with this vulnerability to drought. The index proved to be appropriate for communicating about vulnerability to climate change and its determining factors with different stakeholders. The water system research showed that the main source of spring water is local rainwater, and that water use efficiency in farming is low. The adaptation measures that were jointly selected by the communities and the project team aimed to increase water availability close to farmland, and increase water use efficiency, and these will help to reduce the communities vulnerability to drought.

Mobile population dynamics and malaria vulnerability: a modelling study in the China-Myanmar border region of Yunnan Province, China.

PubMed

Chen, Tian-Mu; Zhang, Shao-Sen; Feng, Jun; Xia, Zhi-Gui; Luo, Chun-Hai; Zeng, Xu-Can; Guo, Xiang-Rui; Lin, Zu-Rui; Zhou, Hong-Ning; Zhou, Shui-Sen

2018-04-29

The China-Myanmar border region presents a great challenge in malaria elimination in China, and it is essential to understand the relationship between malaria vulnerability and population mobility in this region. A community-based, cross-sectional survey was performed in five villages of Yingjiang county during September 2016. Finger-prick blood samples were obtained to identify asymptomatic infections, and imported cases were identified in each village (between January 2013 and September 2016). A stochastic simulation model (SSM) was used to test the relationship between population mobility and malaria vulnerability, according to the mechanisms of malaria importation. Thirty-two imported cases were identified in the five villages, with a 4-year average of 1 case/year (range: 0-5 cases/year). No parasites were detected in the 353 blood samples from 2016. The median density of malaria vulnerability was 0.012 (range: 0.000-0.033). The average proportion of mobile members of the study population was 32.56% (range: 28.38-71.95%). Most mobile individuals lived indoors at night with mosquito protection. The SSM model fit the investigated data (χ 2  = 0.487, P = 0.485). The average probability of infection in the members of the population that moved to Myanmar was 0.011 (range: 0.0048-0.1585). The values for simulated vulnerability increased with greater population mobility in each village. A high proportion of population mobility was associated with greater malaria vulnerability in the China-Myanmar border region. Mobile population-specific measures should be used to decrease the risk of malaria re-establishment in China.

GIS Fuzzy Expert System for the assessment of ecosystems vulnerability to fire in managing Mediterranean natural protected areas.

PubMed

Semeraro, Teodoro; Mastroleo, Giovanni; Aretano, Roberta; Facchinetti, Gisella; Zurlini, Giovanni; Petrosillo, Irene

2016-03-01

A significant threat to the natural and cultural heritage of Mediterranean natural protected areas (NPAs) is related to uncontrolled fires that can cause potential damages related to the loss or a reduction of ecosystems. The assessment and mapping of the vulnerability to fire can be useful to reduce landscape damages and to establish priority areas where it is necessary to plan measures to reduce the fire vulnerability. To this aim, a methodology based on an interactive computer-based system has been proposed in order to support NPA's management authority for the identification of vulnerable hotspots to fire through the selection of suitable indicators that allow discriminating different levels of sensitivity (e.g. Habitat relevance, Fragmentation, Fire behavior, Ecosystem Services, Vegetation recovery after fire) and stresses (agriculture, tourism, urbanization). In particular, a multi-criteria analysis based on Fuzzy Expert System (FES) integrated in a GIS environment has been developed in order to identify and map potential "hotspots" of fire vulnerability, where fire protection measures can be undertaken in advance. In order to test the effectiveness of this approach, this approach has been applied to the NPA of Torre Guaceto (Apulia Region, southern Italy). The most fire vulnerable areas are the patch of century-old forest characterized by high sensitivity and stress, and the wetlands and century-old olive groves due to their high sensitivity. The GIS fuzzy expert system provides evidence of its potential usefulness for the effective management of natural protected areas and can help conservation managers to plan and intervene in order to mitigate the fire vulnerability in accordance with conservation goals. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Integration and Typologies of Vulnerability to Climate Change: A Case Study from Australian Wheat Sheep Zones.

PubMed

Huai, Jianjun

2016-09-27

Although the integrated indicator methods have become popular for assessing vulnerability to climate change, their proliferation has introduced a confusing array of scales and indicators that cause a science-policy gap. I argue for a clear adaptation pathway in an "integrative typology" of regional vulnerability that matches appropriate scales, optimal measurements and adaptive strategies in a six-dimensional and multi-level analysis framework of integration and typology inspired by the "5W1H" questions: "Who is concerned about how to adapt to the vulnerability of what to what in some place (where) at some time (when)?" Using the case of the vulnerability of wheat, barley and oats to drought in Australian wheat sheep zones during 1978-1999, I answer the "5W1H" questions through establishing the "six typologies" framework. I then optimize the measurement of vulnerability through contrasting twelve kinds of vulnerability scores with the divergence of crops yields from their regional mean. Through identifying the socioeconomic constraints, I propose seven generic types of crop-drought vulnerability and local adaptive strategy. Our results illustrate that the process of assessing vulnerability and selecting adaptations can be enhanced using a combination of integration, optimization and typology, which emphasize dynamic transitions and transformations between integration and typology.

Climate change vulnerabilities and adaptation options for forest vegetation management in the northwestern USA

Treesearch

Jessica Halofsky; David Peterson

2016-01-01

Recent vulnerability assessments, conducted in diverse regions in the northwestern United States, indicate that many commonalities exist with respect to projected vulnerabilities to climate change. Dry forests are projected to have significant changes in distribution and abundance of species, partially in response to higher temperature and lower soil moisture, but...

The Future of Risk Analysis: Operationalizing Living Vulnerability Assessments from the Cloud to the Street (and Back)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tellman, B.; Schwarz, B.; Kuhn, C.; Pandey, B.; Schank, C.; Sullivan, J.; Mahtta, R.; Hammet, L.

2016-12-01

21 million people are exposed to flooding every year, and that number is expected to more than double by 2030 due to climate, land use, and demographic change. Cloud to Street, a mission driven science organization, is working to make big and real time data more meaningful to understand both biophysical and social vulnerability to flooding in this changing world. This talk will showcase the science and practice we have built of integrated social and biophysical flood vulnerability assessments based on our work in Uttarakhand, India and Senegal, in conjunction with nonprofits and development banks. We will show developments of our global historical flood database, detected from MODIS and Landsat satellites, used to power machine learning flood exposure models in Google Earth Engine's API. Demonstrating the approach, we will also showcase new approaches in social vulnerability science, from developing data-driven social vulnerability indices in India, to deriving predictive models that explain the social conditions that lead to disproportionate flood damage and fatality in the US. While this talk will draw on examples of completed vulnerability assessments, we will also discuss the possible future for place-based "living" flood vulnerability assessments that are updated each time satellites circle the earth or people add crowd-sourced observations about flood events and social conditions.

Assessing internal biophysical vulnerability to landslide hazards - a nested catchment approach: Xiangxi Watershed / Three Gorges Reservoir

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wiegand, Matthias; Seeber, Christoph; Hartmann, Heike; Xiang, Wei; King, Lorenz

2010-05-01

The Three Gorges dam construction was completed in 2006. Besides the international media, also the responsible authorities and various scholarly communities pay close attention to potential and actual environmental impacts related to the impoundment and development activities. The geo-environment within the Three Gorges region is highly conducive to landslides. Consequently, a scientific monitoring and risk mitigation system was established and is still under development. Risk analysis with regard to gravity driven mass movements is highly complex and strongly site specific - several aspects hamper a universal methodology applicable for landslide risk and site assessment. The interdisciplinary Sino-German Yangtze-Project Research co-operation aims, among others, to support the sustainable cultivation of the newly developed ecosystems within the Yangtze catchments. Land use change and increasing population growth are causing severe pressure on the scarce land resources. Landslides are acknowledged as important threat, hence vulnerability of certain landscape components have to be identified, quantified and monitored. A nested quantitative approach for vulnerability analysis is developed. The applied risk and vulnerability model understands risk as the product of hazard and vulnerability. Whereas vulnerability is characterized by: mass movement intensity and susceptibility of the respective element at risk. The watershed of Xiangxi river serves as study area. In general, catchment approaches intent and proved to be a functional geographical unit for successful integrated resources management. Several limitations with regard to data accessibility, availability and accuracy have to be considered due to restrictions of feasible scales. Comprehensive large-scale site investigations are confined to training areas for model calibration and validation. Remote sensing potentials are utilised for land use/ land cover change analysis and localization of selected elements

Assessing social vulnerability to climate change in human communities near public forests and grasslands: a framework for resource managers and planners