Development of European NO2 Land Use Regression Model for present and future exposure assessment: Implications for policy analysis.

PubMed

Vizcaino, Pilar; Lavalle, Carlo

2018-05-04

A new Land Use Regression model was built to develop pan-European 100 m resolution maps of NO 2 concentrations. The model was built using NO 2 concentrations from routine monitoring stations available in the Airbase database as dependent variable. Predictor variables included land use, road traffic proxies, population density, climatic and topographical variables, and distance to sea. In order to capture international and inter regional disparities not accounted for with the mentioned predictor variables, additional proxies of NO 2 concentrations, like levels of activity intensity and NO x emissions for specific sectors, were also included. The model was built using Random Forest techniques. Model performance was relatively good given the EU-wide scale (R 2  = 0.53). Output predictions of annual average concentrations of NO 2 were in line with other existing models in terms of spatial distribution and values of concentration. The model was validated for year 2015, comparing model predictions derived from updated values of independent variables, with concentrations in monitoring stations for that year. The algorithm was then used to model future concentrations up to the year 2030, considering different emission scenarios as well as changes in land use, population distribution and economic factors assuming the most likely socio-economic trends. Levels of exposure were derived from maps of concentration. The model proved to be a useful tool for the ex-ante evaluation of specific air pollution mitigation measures, and more broadly, for impact assessment of EU policies on territorial development. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Quality by design for herbal drugs: a feedforward control strategy and an approach to define the acceptable ranges of critical quality attributes.

PubMed

Yan, Binjun; Li, Yao; Guo, Zhengtai; Qu, Haibin

2014-01-01

The concept of quality by design (QbD) has been widely accepted and applied in the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry. There are still two key issues to be addressed in the implementation of QbD for herbal drugs. The first issue is the quality variation of herbal raw materials and the second issue is the difficulty in defining the acceptable ranges of critical quality attributes (CQAs). To propose a feedforward control strategy and a method for defining the acceptable ranges of CQAs for the two issues. In the case study of the ethanol precipitation process of Danshen (Radix Salvia miltiorrhiza) injection, regression models linking input material attributes and process parameters to CQAs were built first and an optimisation model for calculating the best process parameters according to the input materials was established. Then, the feasible material space was defined and the acceptable ranges of CQAs for the previous process were determined. In the case study, satisfactory regression models were built with cross-validated regression coefficients (Q(2) ) all above 91 %. The feedforward control strategy was applied successfully to compensate the quality variation of the input materials, which was able to control the CQAs in the 90-110 % ranges of the desired values. In addition, the feasible material space for the ethanol precipitation process was built successfully, which showed the acceptable ranges of the CQAs for the concentration process. The proposed methodology can help to promote the implementation of QbD for herbal drugs. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Kernel analysis of partial least squares (PLS) regression models.

PubMed

Shinzawa, Hideyuki; Ritthiruangdej, Pitiporn; Ozaki, Yukihiro

2011-05-01

An analytical technique based on kernel matrix representation is demonstrated to provide further chemically meaningful insight into partial least squares (PLS) regression models. The kernel matrix condenses essential information about scores derived from PLS or principal component analysis (PCA). Thus, it becomes possible to establish the proper interpretation of the scores. A PLS model for the total nitrogen (TN) content in multiple Thai fish sauces is built with a set of near-infrared (NIR) transmittance spectra of the fish sauce samples. The kernel analysis of the scores effectively reveals that the variation of the spectral feature induced by the change in protein content is substantially associated with the total water content and the protein hydration. Kernel analysis is also carried out on a set of time-dependent infrared (IR) spectra representing transient evaporation of ethanol from a binary mixture solution of ethanol and oleic acid. A PLS model to predict the elapsed time is built with the IR spectra and the kernel matrix is derived from the scores. The detailed analysis of the kernel matrix provides penetrating insight into the interaction between the ethanol and the oleic acid.

Predicting Error Bars for QSAR Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schroeter, Timon; Technische Universitaet Berlin, Department of Computer Science, Franklinstrasse 28/29, 10587 Berlin; Schwaighofer, Anton

2007-09-18

Unfavorable physicochemical properties often cause drug failures. It is therefore important to take lipophilicity and water solubility into account early on in lead discovery. This study presents log D{sub 7} models built using Gaussian Process regression, Support Vector Machines, decision trees and ridge regression algorithms based on 14556 drug discovery compounds of Bayer Schering Pharma. A blind test was conducted using 7013 new measurements from the last months. We also present independent evaluations using public data. Apart from accuracy, we discuss the quality of error bars that can be computed by Gaussian Process models, and ensemble and distance based techniquesmore » for the other modelling approaches.« less

Differentially private distributed logistic regression using private and public data.

PubMed

Ji, Zhanglong; Jiang, Xiaoqian; Wang, Shuang; Xiong, Li; Ohno-Machado, Lucila

2014-01-01

Privacy protecting is an important issue in medical informatics and differential privacy is a state-of-the-art framework for data privacy research. Differential privacy offers provable privacy against attackers who have auxiliary information, and can be applied to data mining models (for example, logistic regression). However, differentially private methods sometimes introduce too much noise and make outputs less useful. Given available public data in medical research (e.g. from patients who sign open-consent agreements), we can design algorithms that use both public and private data sets to decrease the amount of noise that is introduced. In this paper, we modify the update step in Newton-Raphson method to propose a differentially private distributed logistic regression model based on both public and private data. We try our algorithm on three different data sets, and show its advantage over: (1) a logistic regression model based solely on public data, and (2) a differentially private distributed logistic regression model based on private data under various scenarios. Logistic regression models built with our new algorithm based on both private and public datasets demonstrate better utility than models that trained on private or public datasets alone without sacrificing the rigorous privacy guarantee.

Racial residential segregation and preterm birth: built environment as a mediator.

PubMed

Anthopolos, Rebecca; Kaufman, Jay S; Messer, Lynne C; Miranda, Marie Lynn

2014-05-01

Racial residential segregation has been associated with preterm birth. Few studies have examined mediating pathways, in part because, with binary outcomes, indirect effects estimated from multiplicative models generally lack causal interpretation. We develop a method to estimate additive-scale natural direct and indirect effects from logistic regression. We then evaluate whether segregation operates through poor-quality built environment to affect preterm birth. To estimate natural direct and indirect effects, we derive risk differences from logistic regression coefficients. Birth records (2000-2008) for Durham, North Carolina, were linked to neighborhood-level measures of racial isolation and a composite construct of poor-quality built environment. We decomposed the total effect of racial isolation on preterm birth into direct and indirect effects. The adjusted total effect of an interquartile increase in racial isolation on preterm birth was an extra 27 preterm events per 1000 births (risk difference = 0.027 [95% confidence interval = 0.007 to 0.047]). With poor-quality built environment held at the level it would take under isolation at the 25th percentile, the direct effect of an interquartile increase in isolation was 0.022 (-0.001 to 0.042). Poor-quality built environment accounted for 35% (11% to 65%) of the total effect. Our methodology facilitates the estimation of additive-scale natural effects with binary outcomes. In this study, the total effect of racial segregation on preterm birth was partially mediated by poor-quality built environment.

Using Time Series Analysis to Predict Cardiac Arrest in a PICU.

PubMed

Kennedy, Curtis E; Aoki, Noriaki; Mariscalco, Michele; Turley, James P

2015-11-01

To build and test cardiac arrest prediction models in a PICU, using time series analysis as input, and to measure changes in prediction accuracy attributable to different classes of time series data. Retrospective cohort study. Thirty-one bed academic PICU that provides care for medical and general surgical (not congenital heart surgery) patients. Patients experiencing a cardiac arrest in the PICU and requiring external cardiac massage for at least 2 minutes. None. One hundred three cases of cardiac arrest and 109 control cases were used to prepare a baseline dataset that consisted of 1,025 variables in four data classes: multivariate, raw time series, clinical calculations, and time series trend analysis. We trained 20 arrest prediction models using a matrix of five feature sets (combinations of data classes) with four modeling algorithms: linear regression, decision tree, neural network, and support vector machine. The reference model (multivariate data with regression algorithm) had an accuracy of 78% and 87% area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. The best model (multivariate + trend analysis data with support vector machine algorithm) had an accuracy of 94% and 98% area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Cardiac arrest predictions based on a traditional model built with multivariate data and a regression algorithm misclassified cases 3.7 times more frequently than predictions that included time series trend analysis and built with a support vector machine algorithm. Although the final model lacks the specificity necessary for clinical application, we have demonstrated how information from time series data can be used to increase the accuracy of clinical prediction models.

Multivariate Analysis of Seismic Field Data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Alam, M. Kathleen

1999-06-01

This report includes the details of the model building procedure and prediction of seismic field data. Principal Components Regression, a multivariate analysis technique, was used to model seismic data collected as two pieces of equipment were cycled on and off. Models built that included only the two pieces of equipment of interest had trouble predicting data containing signals not included in the model. Evidence for poor predictions came from the prediction curves as well as spectral F-ratio plots. Once the extraneous signals were included in the model, predictions improved dramatically. While Principal Components Regression performed well for the present datamore » sets, the present data analysis suggests further work will be needed to develop more robust modeling methods as the data become more complex.« less

Regression Models and Fuzzy Logic Prediction of TBM Penetration Rate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Minh, Vu Trieu; Katushin, Dmitri; Antonov, Maksim; Veinthal, Renno

2017-03-01

This paper presents statistical analyses of rock engineering properties and the measured penetration rate of tunnel boring machine (TBM) based on the data of an actual project. The aim of this study is to analyze the influence of rock engineering properties including uniaxial compressive strength (UCS), Brazilian tensile strength (BTS), rock brittleness index (BI), the distance between planes of weakness (DPW), and the alpha angle (Alpha) between the tunnel axis and the planes of weakness on the TBM rate of penetration (ROP). Four (4) statistical regression models (two linear and two nonlinear) are built to predict the ROP of TBM. Finally a fuzzy logic model is developed as an alternative method and compared to the four statistical regression models. Results show that the fuzzy logic model provides better estimations and can be applied to predict the TBM performance. The R-squared value (R2) of the fuzzy logic model scores the highest value of 0.714 over the second runner-up of 0.667 from the multiple variables nonlinear regression model.

Built Environment Influences of Children's Physical Activity: Examining Differences by Neighbourhood Size and Sex.

PubMed

Mitchell, Christine A; Clark, Andrew F; Gilliland, Jason A

2016-01-15

Neighbourhoods can facilitate or constrain moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) among children by providing or restricting opportunities for MVPA. However, there is no consensus on how to define a child's neighbourhood. This study examines the influence of the neighbourhood built environment on objectively measured MVPA among 435 children (aged 9-14 years) in London (ON, Canada). As there is no consensus on how to delineate a child's neighbourhood, a geographic information system was used to generate measures of the neighbourhood built environment at two buffer sizes (500 m and 800 m) around each child's home. Linear regression models with robust standard errors (cluster) were used to analyze the relationship between built environment characteristics and average daily MVPA during non-school hours on weekdays. Sex-stratified models assessed sex-specific relationships. When accounting for individual and neighbourhood socio-demographic variables, park space and multi-use path space were found to influence children's MVPA. Sex-stratified models found significant associations between MVPA and park space, with the 800 m buffer best explaining boys' MVPA and the 500 m buffer best explaining girls' MVPA. Findings emphasize that, when designing built environments, programs, and policies to facilitate physical activity, it is important to consider that the size of the neighbourhood influencing a child's physical activity may differ according to sex.

Assessing risk factors for periodontitis using regression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lobo Pereira, J. A.; Ferreira, Maria Cristina; Oliveira, Teresa

2013-10-01

Multivariate statistical analysis is indispensable to assess the associations and interactions between different factors and the risk of periodontitis. Among others, regression analysis is a statistical technique widely used in healthcare to investigate and model the relationship between variables. In our work we study the impact of socio-demographic, medical and behavioral factors on periodontal health. Using regression, linear and logistic models, we can assess the relevance, as risk factors for periodontitis disease, of the following independent variables (IVs): Age, Gender, Diabetic Status, Education, Smoking status and Plaque Index. The multiple linear regression analysis model was built to evaluate the influence of IVs on mean Attachment Loss (AL). Thus, the regression coefficients along with respective p-values will be obtained as well as the respective p-values from the significance tests. The classification of a case (individual) adopted in the logistic model was the extent of the destruction of periodontal tissues defined by an Attachment Loss greater than or equal to 4 mm in 25% (AL≥4mm/≥25%) of sites surveyed. The association measures include the Odds Ratios together with the correspondent 95% confidence intervals.

Differentially private distributed logistic regression using private and public data

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Privacy protecting is an important issue in medical informatics and differential privacy is a state-of-the-art framework for data privacy research. Differential privacy offers provable privacy against attackers who have auxiliary information, and can be applied to data mining models (for example, logistic regression). However, differentially private methods sometimes introduce too much noise and make outputs less useful. Given available public data in medical research (e.g. from patients who sign open-consent agreements), we can design algorithms that use both public and private data sets to decrease the amount of noise that is introduced. Methodology In this paper, we modify the update step in Newton-Raphson method to propose a differentially private distributed logistic regression model based on both public and private data. Experiments and results We try our algorithm on three different data sets, and show its advantage over: (1) a logistic regression model based solely on public data, and (2) a differentially private distributed logistic regression model based on private data under various scenarios. Conclusion Logistic regression models built with our new algorithm based on both private and public datasets demonstrate better utility than models that trained on private or public datasets alone without sacrificing the rigorous privacy guarantee. PMID:25079786

The Built Environment and Childhood Obesity in Durham, NC

PubMed Central

Miranda, Marie Lynn; Edwards, Sharon E.; Anthopolos, Rebecca; Dolinsky, Diana H.; Kemper, Alex R.

2013-01-01

The relationship between childhood obesity and aspects of the built environment characterizing neighborhood social context is understudied. We evaluate the association between seven built environment domains and childhood obesity in Durham, NC. Measures of housing damage, property disorder, vacancy, nuisances, and territoriality were constructed using data from a 2008 community assessment. Renter-occupied housing and crime measures were developed from public databases. We linked these measures to 2008–2009 Duke University Medical Center pediatric preventive care visits. Age- and sex-specific body mass index percentiles were used to classify children as normal weight (>5th and ≤ 85th percentile), overweight (>85th and ≤ 95th percentile), or obese (> 95th percentile). Ordinal logistic regression models with cluster-corrected standard errors evaluated the association between weight status and the built environment. Adjusting for child-level socioeconomic characteristics, nuisances and crime were associated with childhood overweight/obesity (P<0.05). Built environment characteristics appear important to childhood weight status in Durham, NC. PMID:22563061

The use of regression tree analysis for predicting the functional outcome following traumatic spinal cord injury.

PubMed

Facchinello, Yann; Beauséjour, Marie; Richard-Denis, Andreane; Thompson, Cynthia; Mac-Thiong, Jean-Marc

2017-10-25

Predicting the long-term functional outcome following traumatic spinal cord injury is needed to adapt medical strategies and to plan an optimized rehabilitation. This study investigates the use of regression tree for the development of predictive models based on acute clinical and demographic predictors. This prospective study was performed on 172 patients hospitalized following traumatic spinal cord injury. Functional outcome was quantified using the Spinal Cord Independence Measure collected within the first-year post injury. Age, delay prior to surgery and Injury Severity Score were considered as continuous predictors while energy of injury, trauma mechanisms, neurological level of injury, injury severity, occurrence of early spasticity, urinary tract infection, pressure ulcer and pneumonia were coded as categorical inputs. A simplified model was built using only injury severity, neurological level, energy and age as predictor and was compared to a more complex model considering all 11 predictors mentioned above The models built using 4 and 11 predictors were found to explain 51.4% and 62.3% of the variance of the Spinal Cord Independence Measure total score after validation, respectively. The severity of the neurological deficit at admission was found to be the most important predictor. Other important predictors were the Injury Severity Score, age, neurological level and delay prior to surgery. Regression trees offer promising performances for predicting the functional outcome after a traumatic spinal cord injury. It could help to determine the number and type of predictors leading to a prediction model of the functional outcome that can be used clinically in the future.

The Use of Remote Sensing Data for Modeling Air Quality in the Cities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Putrenko, V. V.; Pashynska, N. M.

2017-12-01

Monitoring of environmental pollution in the cities by the methods of remote sensing of the Earth is actual area of research for sustainable development. Ukraine has a poorly developed network of monitoring stations for air quality, the technical condition of which is deteriorating in recent years. Therefore, the possibility of obtaining data about the condition of air by remote sensing methods is of great importance. The paper considers the possibility of using the data about condition of atmosphere of the project AERONET to assess the air quality in Ukraine. The main pollution indicators were used data on fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) content in the atmosphere. The main indicator of air quality in Ukraine is the air pollution index (API). We have built regression models the relationship between indicators of NO2, which are measured by remote sensing methods and ground-based measurements of indicators. There have also been built regression models, the relationship between the data given to the land of NO2 and API. To simulate the relationship between the API and PM2.5 were used geographically weighted regression model, which allows to take into account the territorial differentiation between these indicators. As a result, the maps that show the distribution of the main types of pollution in the territory of Ukraine, were constructed. PM2.5 data modeling is complicated with using existing indicators, which requires a separate organization observation network for PM2.5 content in the atmosphere for sustainable development in cities of Ukraine.

QSRR modeling for diverse drugs using different feature selection methods coupled with linear and nonlinear regressions.

PubMed

Goodarzi, Mohammad; Jensen, Richard; Vander Heyden, Yvan

2012-12-01

A Quantitative Structure-Retention Relationship (QSRR) is proposed to estimate the chromatographic retention of 83 diverse drugs on a Unisphere poly butadiene (PBD) column, using isocratic elutions at pH 11.7. Previous work has generated QSRR models for them using Classification And Regression Trees (CART). In this work, Ant Colony Optimization is used as a feature selection method to find the best molecular descriptors from a large pool. In addition, several other selection methods have been applied, such as Genetic Algorithms, Stepwise Regression and the Relief method, not only to evaluate Ant Colony Optimization as a feature selection method but also to investigate its ability to find the important descriptors in QSRR. Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) and Support Vector Machines (SVMs) were applied as linear and nonlinear regression methods, respectively, giving excellent correlation between the experimental, i.e. extrapolated to a mobile phase consisting of pure water, and predicted logarithms of the retention factors of the drugs (logk(w)). The overall best model was the SVM one built using descriptors selected by ACO. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

[Local Regression Algorithm Based on Net Analyte Signal and Its Application in Near Infrared Spectral Analysis].

PubMed

Zhang, Hong-guang; Lu, Jian-gang

2016-02-01

Abstract To overcome the problems of significant difference among samples and nonlinearity between the property and spectra of samples in spectral quantitative analysis, a local regression algorithm is proposed in this paper. In this algorithm, net signal analysis method(NAS) was firstly used to obtain the net analyte signal of the calibration samples and unknown samples, then the Euclidean distance between net analyte signal of the sample and net analyte signal of calibration samples was calculated and utilized as similarity index. According to the defined similarity index, the local calibration sets were individually selected for each unknown sample. Finally, a local PLS regression model was built on each local calibration sets for each unknown sample. The proposed method was applied to a set of near infrared spectra of meat samples. The results demonstrate that the prediction precision and model complexity of the proposed method are superior to global PLS regression method and conventional local regression algorithm based on spectral Euclidean distance.

Determinants of Graduation Rate of Public Alternative Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Izumi, Masashi; Shen, Jianping; Xia, Jiangang

2015-01-01

In this study we investigated determinants of the graduation rate of public alternative schools by analyzing the most recent, nationally representative data from Schools and Staffing Survey 2007-2008. Based on the literature, we built a series of three regression models via successive block entry, predicting the graduate rate first by (a) student…

Comparative study of biodegradability prediction of chemicals using decision trees, functional trees, and logistic regression.

PubMed

Chen, Guangchao; Li, Xuehua; Chen, Jingwen; Zhang, Ya-Nan; Peijnenburg, Willie J G M

2014-12-01

Biodegradation is the principal environmental dissipation process of chemicals. As such, it is a dominant factor determining the persistence and fate of organic chemicals in the environment, and is therefore of critical importance to chemical management and regulation. In the present study, the authors developed in silico methods assessing biodegradability based on a large heterogeneous set of 825 organic compounds, using the techniques of the C4.5 decision tree, the functional inner regression tree, and logistic regression. External validation was subsequently carried out by 2 independent test sets of 777 and 27 chemicals. As a result, the functional inner regression tree exhibited the best predictability with predictive accuracies of 81.5% and 81.0%, respectively, on the training set (825 chemicals) and test set I (777 chemicals). Performance of the developed models on the 2 test sets was subsequently compared with that of the Estimation Program Interface (EPI) Suite Biowin 5 and Biowin 6 models, which also showed a better predictability of the functional inner regression tree model. The model built in the present study exhibits a reasonable predictability compared with existing models while possessing a transparent algorithm. Interpretation of the mechanisms of biodegradation was also carried out based on the models developed. © 2014 SETAC.

A novel strategy for forensic age prediction by DNA methylation and support vector regression model

PubMed Central

Xu, Cheng; Qu, Hongzhu; Wang, Guangyu; Xie, Bingbing; Shi, Yi; Yang, Yaran; Zhao, Zhao; Hu, Lan; Fang, Xiangdong; Yan, Jiangwei; Feng, Lei

2015-01-01

High deviations resulting from prediction model, gender and population difference have limited age estimation application of DNA methylation markers. Here we identified 2,957 novel age-associated DNA methylation sites (P < 0.01 and R2 > 0.5) in blood of eight pairs of Chinese Han female monozygotic twins. Among them, nine novel sites (false discovery rate < 0.01), along with three other reported sites, were further validated in 49 unrelated female volunteers with ages of 20–80 years by Sequenom Massarray. A total of 95 CpGs were covered in the PCR products and 11 of them were built the age prediction models. After comparing four different models including, multivariate linear regression, multivariate nonlinear regression, back propagation neural network and support vector regression, SVR was identified as the most robust model with the least mean absolute deviation from real chronological age (2.8 years) and an average accuracy of 4.7 years predicted by only six loci from the 11 loci, as well as an less cross-validated error compared with linear regression model. Our novel strategy provides an accurate measurement that is highly useful in estimating the individual age in forensic practice as well as in tracking the aging process in other related applications. PMID:26635134

Resting-State Functional Connectivity Predicts Cognitive Impairment Related to Alzheimer's Disease.

PubMed

Lin, Qi; Rosenberg, Monica D; Yoo, Kwangsun; Hsu, Tiffany W; O'Connell, Thomas P; Chun, Marvin M

2018-01-01

Resting-state functional connectivity (rs-FC) is a promising neuromarker for cognitive decline in aging population, based on its ability to reveal functional differences associated with cognitive impairment across individuals, and because rs-fMRI may be less taxing for participants than task-based fMRI or neuropsychological tests. Here, we employ an approach that uses rs-FC to predict the Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale (11 items; ADAS11) scores, which measure overall cognitive functioning, in novel individuals. We applied this technique, connectome-based predictive modeling, to a heterogeneous sample of 59 subjects from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative, including normal aging, mild cognitive impairment, and AD subjects. First, we built linear regression models to predict ADAS11 scores from rs-FC measured with Pearson's r correlation. The positive network model tested with leave-one-out cross validation (LOOCV) significantly predicted individual differences in cognitive function from rs-FC. In a second analysis, we considered other functional connectivity features, accordance and discordance, which disentangle the correlation and anticorrelation components of activity timecourses between brain areas. Using partial least square regression and LOOCV, we again built models to successfully predict ADAS11 scores in novel individuals. Our study provides promising evidence that rs-FC can reveal cognitive impairment in an aging population, although more development is needed for clinical application.

Methods for identifying SNP interactions: a review on variations of Logic Regression, Random Forest and Bayesian logistic regression.

PubMed

Chen, Carla Chia-Ming; Schwender, Holger; Keith, Jonathan; Nunkesser, Robin; Mengersen, Kerrie; Macrossan, Paula

2011-01-01

Due to advancements in computational ability, enhanced technology and a reduction in the price of genotyping, more data are being generated for understanding genetic associations with diseases and disorders. However, with the availability of large data sets comes the inherent challenges of new methods of statistical analysis and modeling. Considering a complex phenotype may be the effect of a combination of multiple loci, various statistical methods have been developed for identifying genetic epistasis effects. Among these methods, logic regression (LR) is an intriguing approach incorporating tree-like structures. Various methods have built on the original LR to improve different aspects of the model. In this study, we review four variations of LR, namely Logic Feature Selection, Monte Carlo Logic Regression, Genetic Programming for Association Studies, and Modified Logic Regression-Gene Expression Programming, and investigate the performance of each method using simulated and real genotype data. We contrast these with another tree-like approach, namely Random Forests, and a Bayesian logistic regression with stochastic search variable selection.

The Built Environment and Active Travel: Evidence from Nanjing, China.

PubMed

Feng, Jianxi

2016-03-08

An established relationship exists between the built environment and active travel. Nevertheless, the literature examining the impacts of different components of the built environment is limited. In addition, most existing studies are based on data from cities in the U.S. and Western Europe. The situation in Chinese cities remains largely unknown. Based on data from Nanjing, China, this study explicitly examines the influences of two components of the built environment--the neighborhood form and street form--on residents' active travel. Binary logistic regression analyses examined the effects of the neighborhood form and street form on subsistence, maintenance and discretionary travel, respectively. For each travel purpose, three models are explored: a model with only socio-demographics, a model with variables of the neighborhood form and a complete model with all variables. The model fit indicator, Nagelkerke's ρ², increased by 0.024 when neighborhood form variables are included and increased by 0.070 when street form variables are taken into account. A similar situation can be found in the models of maintenance activities and discretionary activities. Regarding specific variables, very limited significant impacts of the neighborhood form variables are observed, while almost all of the characteristics of the street form show significant influences on active transport. In Nanjing, street form factors have a more profound influence on active travel than neighborhood form factors. The focal point of the land use regulations and policy of local governments should shift from the neighborhood form to the street form to maximize the effects of policy interventions.

Prediction of silicon oxynitride plasma etching using a generalized regression neural network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Byungwhan; Lee, Byung Teak

2005-08-01

A prediction model of silicon oxynitride (SiON) etching was constructed using a neural network. Model prediction performance was improved by means of genetic algorithm. The etching was conducted in a C2F6 inductively coupled plasma. A 24 full factorial experiment was employed to systematically characterize parameter effects on SiON etching. The process parameters include radio frequency source power, bias power, pressure, and C2F6 flow rate. To test the appropriateness of the trained model, additional 16 experiments were conducted. For comparison, four types of statistical regression models were built. Compared to the best regression model, the optimized neural network model demonstrated an improvement of about 52%. The optimized model was used to infer etch mechanisms as a function of parameters. The pressure effect was noticeably large only as relatively large ion bombardment was maintained in the process chamber. Ion-bombardment-activated polymer deposition played the most significant role in interpreting the complex effect of bias power or C2F6 flow rate. Moreover, [CF2] was expected to be the predominant precursor to polymer deposition.

Analysis of an Environmental Exposure Health Questionnaire in a Metropolitan Minority Population Utilizing Logistic Regression and Support Vector Machines

PubMed Central

Chen, Chau-Kuang; Bruce, Michelle; Tyler, Lauren; Brown, Claudine; Garrett, Angelica; Goggins, Susan; Lewis-Polite, Brandy; Weriwoh, Mirabel L; Juarez, Paul D.; Hood, Darryl B.; Skelton, Tyler

2014-01-01

The goal of this study was to analyze a 54-item instrument for assessment of perception of exposure to environmental contaminants within the context of the built environment, or exposome. This exposome was defined in five domains to include 1) home and hobby, 2) school, 3) community, 4) occupation, and 5) exposure history. Interviews were conducted with child-bearing-age minority women at Metro Nashville General Hospital at Meharry Medical College. Data were analyzed utilizing DTReg software for Support Vector Machine (SVM) modeling followed by an SPSS package for a logistic regression model. The target (outcome) variable of interest was respondent's residence by ZIP code. The results demonstrate that the rank order of important variables with respect to SVM modeling versus traditional logistic regression models is almost identical. This is the first study documenting that SVM analysis has discriminate power for determination of higher-ordered spatial relationships on an environmental exposure history questionnaire. PMID:23395953

Analysis of an environmental exposure health questionnaire in a metropolitan minority population utilizing logistic regression and Support Vector Machines.

PubMed

Chen, Chau-Kuang; Bruce, Michelle; Tyler, Lauren; Brown, Claudine; Garrett, Angelica; Goggins, Susan; Lewis-Polite, Brandy; Weriwoh, Mirabel L; Juarez, Paul D; Hood, Darryl B; Skelton, Tyler

2013-02-01

The goal of this study was to analyze a 54-item instrument for assessment of perception of exposure to environmental contaminants within the context of the built environment, or exposome. This exposome was defined in five domains to include 1) home and hobby, 2) school, 3) community, 4) occupation, and 5) exposure history. Interviews were conducted with child-bearing-age minority women at Metro Nashville General Hospital at Meharry Medical College. Data were analyzed utilizing DTReg software for Support Vector Machine (SVM) modeling followed by an SPSS package for a logistic regression model. The target (outcome) variable of interest was respondent's residence by ZIP code. The results demonstrate that the rank order of important variables with respect to SVM modeling versus traditional logistic regression models is almost identical. This is the first study documenting that SVM analysis has discriminate power for determination of higher-ordered spatial relationships on an environmental exposure history questionnaire.

Application of factor analysis of infrared spectra for quantitative determination of beta-tricalcium phosphate in calcium hydroxylapatite.

PubMed

Arsenyev, P A; Trezvov, V V; Saratovskaya, N V

1997-01-01

This work represents a method, which allows to determine phase composition of calcium hydroxylapatite basing on its infrared spectrum. The method uses factor analysis of the spectral data of calibration set of samples to determine minimal number of factors required to reproduce the spectra within experimental error. Multiple linear regression is applied to establish correlation between factor scores of calibration standards and their properties. The regression equations can be used to predict the property value of unknown sample. The regression model was built for determination of beta-tricalcium phosphate content in hydroxylapatite. Statistical estimation of quality of the model was carried out. Application of the factor analysis on spectral data allows to increase accuracy of beta-tricalcium phosphate determination and expand the range of determination towards its less concentration. Reproducibility of results is retained.

Integration of logistic regression and multicriteria land evaluation to simulation establishment of sustainable paddy field zone in Indramayu Regency, West Java Province, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nahib, Irmadi; Suryanta, Jaka; Niedyawati; Kardono, Priyadi; Turmudi; Lestari, Sri; Windiastuti, Rizka

2018-05-01

Ministry of Agriculture have targeted production of 1.718 million tons of dry grain harvest during period of 2016-2021 to achieve food self-sufficiency, through optimization of special commodities including paddy, soybean and corn. This research was conducted to develop a sustainable paddy field zone delineation model using logistic regression and multicriteria land evaluation in Indramayu Regency. A model was built on the characteristics of local function conversion by considering the concept of sustainable development. Spatial data overlay was constructed using available data, and then this model was built upon the occurrence of paddy field between 1998 and 2015. Equation for the model of paddy field changes obtained was: logit (paddy field conversion) = - 2.3048 + 0.0032*X1 – 0.0027*X2 + 0.0081*X3 + 0.0025*X4 + 0.0026*X5 + 0.0128*X6 – 0.0093*X7 + 0.0032*X8 + 0.0071*X9 – 0.0046*X10 where X1 to X10 were variables that determine the occurrence of changes in paddy fields, with a result value of Relative Operating Characteristics (ROC) of 0.8262. The weakest variable in influencing the change of paddy field function was X7 (paddy field price), while the most influential factor was X1 (distance from river). Result of the logistic regression was used as a weight for multicriteria land evaluation, which recommended three scenarios of paddy fields protection policy: standard, protective, and permissive. The result of this modelling, the priority paddy fields for protected scenario were obtained, as well as the buffer zones for the surrounding paddy fields.

Identification of Alfalfa Leaf Diseases Using Image Recognition Technology

PubMed Central

Qin, Feng; Liu, Dongxia; Sun, Bingda; Ruan, Liu; Ma, Zhanhong; Wang, Haiguang

2016-01-01

Common leaf spot (caused by Pseudopeziza medicaginis), rust (caused by Uromyces striatus), Leptosphaerulina leaf spot (caused by Leptosphaerulina briosiana) and Cercospora leaf spot (caused by Cercospora medicaginis) are the four common types of alfalfa leaf diseases. Timely and accurate diagnoses of these diseases are critical for disease management, alfalfa quality control and the healthy development of the alfalfa industry. In this study, the identification and diagnosis of the four types of alfalfa leaf diseases were investigated using pattern recognition algorithms based on image-processing technology. A sub-image with one or multiple typical lesions was obtained by artificial cutting from each acquired digital disease image. Then the sub-images were segmented using twelve lesion segmentation methods integrated with clustering algorithms (including K_means clustering, fuzzy C-means clustering and K_median clustering) and supervised classification algorithms (including logistic regression analysis, Naive Bayes algorithm, classification and regression tree, and linear discriminant analysis). After a comprehensive comparison, the segmentation method integrating the K_median clustering algorithm and linear discriminant analysis was chosen to obtain lesion images. After the lesion segmentation using this method, a total of 129 texture, color and shape features were extracted from the lesion images. Based on the features selected using three methods (ReliefF, 1R and correlation-based feature selection), disease recognition models were built using three supervised learning methods, including the random forest, support vector machine (SVM) and K-nearest neighbor methods. A comparison of the recognition results of the models was conducted. The results showed that when the ReliefF method was used for feature selection, the SVM model built with the most important 45 features (selected from a total of 129 features) was the optimal model. For this SVM model, the recognition accuracies of the training set and the testing set were 97.64% and 94.74%, respectively. Semi-supervised models for disease recognition were built based on the 45 effective features that were used for building the optimal SVM model. For the optimal semi-supervised models built with three ratios of labeled to unlabeled samples in the training set, the recognition accuracies of the training set and the testing set were both approximately 80%. The results indicated that image recognition of the four alfalfa leaf diseases can be implemented with high accuracy. This study provides a feasible solution for lesion image segmentation and image recognition of alfalfa leaf disease. PMID:27977767

Identification of Alfalfa Leaf Diseases Using Image Recognition Technology.

PubMed

Qin, Feng; Liu, Dongxia; Sun, Bingda; Ruan, Liu; Ma, Zhanhong; Wang, Haiguang

2016-01-01

Common leaf spot (caused by Pseudopeziza medicaginis), rust (caused by Uromyces striatus), Leptosphaerulina leaf spot (caused by Leptosphaerulina briosiana) and Cercospora leaf spot (caused by Cercospora medicaginis) are the four common types of alfalfa leaf diseases. Timely and accurate diagnoses of these diseases are critical for disease management, alfalfa quality control and the healthy development of the alfalfa industry. In this study, the identification and diagnosis of the four types of alfalfa leaf diseases were investigated using pattern recognition algorithms based on image-processing technology. A sub-image with one or multiple typical lesions was obtained by artificial cutting from each acquired digital disease image. Then the sub-images were segmented using twelve lesion segmentation methods integrated with clustering algorithms (including K_means clustering, fuzzy C-means clustering and K_median clustering) and supervised classification algorithms (including logistic regression analysis, Naive Bayes algorithm, classification and regression tree, and linear discriminant analysis). After a comprehensive comparison, the segmentation method integrating the K_median clustering algorithm and linear discriminant analysis was chosen to obtain lesion images. After the lesion segmentation using this method, a total of 129 texture, color and shape features were extracted from the lesion images. Based on the features selected using three methods (ReliefF, 1R and correlation-based feature selection), disease recognition models were built using three supervised learning methods, including the random forest, support vector machine (SVM) and K-nearest neighbor methods. A comparison of the recognition results of the models was conducted. The results showed that when the ReliefF method was used for feature selection, the SVM model built with the most important 45 features (selected from a total of 129 features) was the optimal model. For this SVM model, the recognition accuracies of the training set and the testing set were 97.64% and 94.74%, respectively. Semi-supervised models for disease recognition were built based on the 45 effective features that were used for building the optimal SVM model. For the optimal semi-supervised models built with three ratios of labeled to unlabeled samples in the training set, the recognition accuracies of the training set and the testing set were both approximately 80%. The results indicated that image recognition of the four alfalfa leaf diseases can be implemented with high accuracy. This study provides a feasible solution for lesion image segmentation and image recognition of alfalfa leaf disease.

Using exploratory regression to identify optimal driving factors for cellular automaton modeling of land use change.

PubMed

Feng, Yongjiu; Tong, Xiaohua

2017-09-22

Defining transition rules is an important issue in cellular automaton (CA)-based land use modeling because these models incorporate highly correlated driving factors. Multicollinearity among correlated driving factors may produce negative effects that must be eliminated from the modeling. Using exploratory regression under pre-defined criteria, we identified all possible combinations of factors from the candidate factors affecting land use change. Three combinations that incorporate five driving factors meeting pre-defined criteria were assessed. With the selected combinations of factors, three logistic regression-based CA models were built to simulate dynamic land use change in Shanghai, China, from 2000 to 2015. For comparative purposes, a CA model with all candidate factors was also applied to simulate the land use change. Simulations using three CA models with multicollinearity eliminated performed better (with accuracy improvements about 3.6%) than the model incorporating all candidate factors. Our results showed that not all candidate factors are necessary for accurate CA modeling and the simulations were not sensitive to changes in statistically non-significant driving factors. We conclude that exploratory regression is an effective method to search for the optimal combinations of driving factors, leading to better land use change models that are devoid of multicollinearity. We suggest identification of dominant factors and elimination of multicollinearity before building land change models, making it possible to simulate more realistic outcomes.

Building and verifying a severity prediction model of acute pancreatitis (AP) based on BISAP, MEWS and routine test indexes.

PubMed

Ye, Jiang-Feng; Zhao, Yu-Xin; Ju, Jian; Wang, Wei

2017-10-01

To discuss the value of the Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP), Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS), serum Ca2+, similarly hereinafter, and red cell distribution width (RDW) for predicting the severity grade of acute pancreatitis and to develop and verify a more accurate scoring system to predict the severity of AP. In 302 patients with AP, we calculated BISAP and MEWS scores and conducted regression analyses on the relationships of BISAP scoring, RDW, MEWS, and serum Ca2+ with the severity of AP using single-factor logistics. The variables with statistical significance in the single-factor logistic regression were used in a multi-factor logistic regression model; forward stepwise regression was used to screen variables and build a multi-factor prediction model. A receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC curve) was constructed, and the significance of multi- and single-factor prediction models in predicting the severity of AP using the area under the ROC curve (AUC) was evaluated. The internal validity of the model was verified through bootstrapping. Among 302 patients with AP, 209 had mild acute pancreatitis (MAP) and 93 had severe acute pancreatitis (SAP). According to single-factor logistic regression analysis, we found that BISAP, MEWS and serum Ca2+ are prediction indexes of the severity of AP (P-value<0.001), whereas RDW is not a prediction index of AP severity (P-value>0.05). The multi-factor logistic regression analysis showed that BISAP and serum Ca2+ are independent prediction indexes of AP severity (P-value<0.001), and MEWS is not an independent prediction index of AP severity (P-value>0.05); BISAP is negatively related to serum Ca2+ (r=-0.330, P-value<0.001). The constructed model is as follows: ln()=7.306+1.151*BISAP-4.516*serum Ca2+. The predictive ability of each model for SAP follows the order of the combined BISAP and serum Ca2+ prediction model>Ca2+>BISAP. There is no statistical significance for the predictive ability of BISAP and serum Ca2+ (P-value>0.05); however, there is remarkable statistical significance for the predictive ability using the newly built prediction model as well as BISAP and serum Ca2+ individually (P-value<0.01). Verification of the internal validity of the models by bootstrapping is favorable. BISAP and serum Ca2+ have high predictive value for the severity of AP. However, the model built by combining BISAP and serum Ca2+ is remarkably superior to those of BISAP and serum Ca2+ individually. Furthermore, this model is simple, practical and appropriate for clinical use. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS.

Theory Can Help Structure Regression Models for Projecting Stream Conditions Under Alternative Land Use Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Sickle, J.; Baker, J.; Herlihy, A.

2005-05-01

We built multiple regression models for Emphemeroptera/ Plecoptera/ Tricoptera (EPT) taxon richness and other indicators of biological condition in streams of the Willamette River Basin, Oregon, USA. The models were used to project the changes in condition that would be expected in all 2-4th order streams of the 30000 sq km basin under alternative scenarios of future land use. In formulating the models, we invoked the theory of limiting factors to express the interactive effects of stream power and watershed land use on EPT richness. The resulting models were parsimonious, and they fit the data in our wedge-shaped scatterplots slightly better than did a naive additive-effects model. Just as theory helped formulate our regression models, the models in turn helped us identify a new research need for the Basin's streams. Our future scenarios project that conversions of agricultural to urban uses may dominate landscape dynamics in the basin over the next 50 years. But our models could not detect any difference between the effects of agricultural and urban development in watersheds on stream biota. This result points to an increased need for understanding how agricultural and urban land uses in the Basin differentially influence stream ecosystems.

Predicting Madura cattle growth curve using non-linear model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Widyas, N.; Prastowo, S.; Widi, T. S. M.; Baliarti, E.

2018-03-01

Madura cattle is Indonesian native. It is a composite breed that has undergone hundreds of years of selection and domestication to reach nowadays remarkable uniformity. Crossbreeding has reached the isle of Madura and the Madrasin, a cross between Madura cows and Limousine semen emerged. This paper aimed to compare the growth curve between Madrasin and one type of pure Madura cows, the common Madura cattle (Madura) using non-linear models. Madura cattles are kept traditionally thus reliable records are hardly available. Data were collected from small holder farmers in Madura. Cows from different age classes (<6 months, 6-12 months, 1-2years, 2-3years, 3-5years and >5years) were observed, and body measurements (chest girth, body length and wither height) were taken. In total 63 Madura and 120 Madrasin records obtained. Linear model was built with cattle sub-populations and age as explanatory variables. Body weights were estimated based on the chest girth. Growth curves were built using logistic regression. Results showed that within the same age, Madrasin has significantly larger body compared to Madura (p<0.05). The logistic models fit better for Madura and Madrasin cattle data; with the estimated MSE for these models were 39.09 and 759.28 with prediction accuracy of 99 and 92% for Madura and Madrasin, respectively. Prediction of growth curve using logistic regression model performed well in both types of Madura cattle. However, attempts to administer accurate data on Madura cattle are necessary to better characterize and study these cattle.

Integration of logistic regression, Markov chain and cellular automata models to simulate urban expansion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jokar Arsanjani, Jamal; Helbich, Marco; Kainz, Wolfgang; Darvishi Boloorani, Ali

2013-04-01

This research analyses the suburban expansion in the metropolitan area of Tehran, Iran. A hybrid model consisting of logistic regression model, Markov chain (MC), and cellular automata (CA) was designed to improve the performance of the standard logistic regression model. Environmental and socio-economic variables dealing with urban sprawl were operationalised to create a probability surface of spatiotemporal states of built-up land use for the years 2006, 2016, and 2026. For validation, the model was evaluated by means of relative operating characteristic values for different sets of variables. The approach was calibrated for 2006 by cross comparing of actual and simulated land use maps. The achieved outcomes represent a match of 89% between simulated and actual maps of 2006, which was satisfactory to approve the calibration process. Thereafter, the calibrated hybrid approach was implemented for forthcoming years. Finally, future land use maps for 2016 and 2026 were predicted by means of this hybrid approach. The simulated maps illustrate a new wave of suburban development in the vicinity of Tehran at the western border of the metropolis during the next decades.

Major controlling factors and prediction models for arsenic uptake from soil to wheat plants.

PubMed

Dai, Yunchao; Lv, Jialong; Liu, Ke; Zhao, Xiaoyan; Cao, Yingfei

2016-08-01

The application of current Chinese agriculture soil quality standards fails to evaluate the land utilization functions appropriately due to the diversity of soil properties and plant species. Therefore, the standards should be amended. A greenhouse experiment was conducted to investigate arsenic (As) enrichment in various soils from 18 Chinese provinces in parallel with As transfer to 8 wheat varieties. The goal of the study was to build and calibrate soil-wheat threshold models to forecast the As threshold of wheat soils. In Shaanxi soils, Wanmai and Jimai were the most sensitive and insensitive wheat varieties, respectively; and in Jiangxi soils, Zhengmai and Xumai were the most sensitive and insensitive wheat varieties, respectively. Relationships between soil properties and the bioconcentration factor (BCF) were built based on stepwise multiple linear regressions. Soil pH was the best predictor of BCF, and after normalizing the regression equation (Log BCF=0.2054 pH- 3.2055, R(2)=0.8474, n=14, p<0.001), we obtained a calibrated model. Using the calibrated model, a continuous soil-wheat threshold equation (HC5=10((-0.2054 pH+2.9935))+9.2) was obtained for the species-sensitive distribution curve, which was built on Chinese food safety standards. The threshold equation is a helpful tool that can be applied to estimate As uptake from soil to wheat. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Built Environment and Active Travel: Evidence from Nanjing, China

PubMed Central

Feng, Jianxi

2016-01-01

Background: An established relationship exists between the built environment and active travel. Nevertheless, the literature examining the impacts of different components of the built environment is limited. In addition, most existing studies are based on data from cities in the U.S. and Western Europe. The situation in Chinese cities remains largely unknown. Based on data from Nanjing, China, this study explicitly examines the influences of two components of the built environment—the neighborhood form and street form—on residents’ active travel. Methods: Binary logistic regression analyses examined the effects of the neighborhood form and street form on subsistence, maintenance and discretionary travel, respectively. For each travel purpose, three models are explored: a model with only socio-demographics, a model with variables of the neighborhood form and a complete model with all variables. Results: The model fit indicator, Nagelkerke’s ρ2, increased by 0.024 when neighborhood form variables are included and increased by 0.070 when street form variables are taken into account. A similar situation can be found in the models of maintenance activities and discretionary activities. Regarding specific variables, very limited significant impacts of the neighborhood form variables are observed, while almost all of the characteristics of the street form show significant influences on active transport. Conclusions: In Nanjing, street form factors have a more profound influence on active travel than neighborhood form factors. The focal point of the land use regulations and policy of local governments should shift from the neighborhood form to the street form to maximize the effects of policy interventions. PMID:27005645

Linear and nonlinear models for predicting fish bioconcentration factors for pesticides.

PubMed

Yuan, Jintao; Xie, Chun; Zhang, Ting; Sun, Jinfang; Yuan, Xuejie; Yu, Shuling; Zhang, Yingbiao; Cao, Yunyuan; Yu, Xingchen; Yang, Xuan; Yao, Wu

2016-08-01

This work is devoted to the applications of the multiple linear regression (MLR), multilayer perceptron neural network (MLP NN) and projection pursuit regression (PPR) to quantitative structure-property relationship analysis of bioconcentration factors (BCFs) of pesticides tested on Bluegill (Lepomis macrochirus). Molecular descriptors of a total of 107 pesticides were calculated with the DRAGON Software and selected by inverse enhanced replacement method. Based on the selected DRAGON descriptors, a linear model was built by MLR, nonlinear models were developed using MLP NN and PPR. The robustness of the obtained models was assessed by cross-validation and external validation using test set. Outliers were also examined and deleted to improve predictive power. Comparative results revealed that PPR achieved the most accurate predictions. This study offers useful models and information for BCF prediction, risk assessment, and pesticide formulation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Building a Decision Support System for Inpatient Admission Prediction With the Manchester Triage System and Administrative Check-in Variables.

PubMed

Zlotnik, Alexander; Alfaro, Miguel Cuchí; Pérez, María Carmen Pérez; Gallardo-Antolín, Ascensión; Martínez, Juan Manuel Montero

2016-05-01

The usage of decision support tools in emergency departments, based on predictive models, capable of estimating the probability of admission for patients in the emergency department may give nursing staff the possibility of allocating resources in advance. We present a methodology for developing and building one such system for a large specialized care hospital using a logistic regression and an artificial neural network model using nine routinely collected variables available right at the end of the triage process.A database of 255.668 triaged nonobstetric emergency department presentations from the Ramon y Cajal University Hospital of Madrid, from January 2011 to December 2012, was used to develop and test the models, with 66% of the data used for derivation and 34% for validation, with an ordered nonrandom partition. On the validation dataset areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve were 0.8568 (95% confidence interval, 0.8508-0.8583) for the logistic regression model and 0.8575 (95% confidence interval, 0.8540-0. 8610) for the artificial neural network model. χ Values for Hosmer-Lemeshow fixed "deciles of risk" were 65.32 for the logistic regression model and 17.28 for the artificial neural network model. A nomogram was generated upon the logistic regression model and an automated software decision support system with a Web interface was built based on the artificial neural network model.

Concepts for a theoretical and experimental study of lifting rotor random loads and vibrations. Phase 6-B: Experiments with progressing/regressing forced rotor flapping modes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hohenemser, K. H.; Crews, S. T.

1972-01-01

A two bladed 16-inch hingeless rotor model was built and tested outside and inside a 24 by 24 inch wind tunnel test section at collective pitch settings up to 5 deg and rotor advance ratios up to .4. The rotor model has a simple eccentric mechanism to provide progressing or regressing cyclic pitch excitation. The flapping responses were compared to analytically determined responses which included flap-bending elasticity but excluded rotor wake effects. Substantial systematic deviations of the measured responses from the computed responses were found, which were interpreted as the effects of interaction of the blades with a rotating asymmetrical wake.

Using built environment characteristics to predict walking for exercise

PubMed Central

Lovasi, Gina S; Moudon, Anne V; Pearson, Amber L; Hurvitz, Philip M; Larson, Eric B; Siscovick, David S; Berke, Ethan M; Lumley, Thomas; Psaty, Bruce M

2008-01-01

Background Environments conducive to walking may help people avoid sedentary lifestyles and associated diseases. Recent studies developed walkability models combining several built environment characteristics to optimally predict walking. Developing and testing such models with the same data could lead to overestimating one's ability to predict walking in an independent sample of the population. More accurate estimates of model fit can be obtained by splitting a single study population into training and validation sets (holdout approach) or through developing and evaluating models in different populations. We used these two approaches to test whether built environment characteristics near the home predict walking for exercise. Study participants lived in western Washington State and were adult members of a health maintenance organization. The physical activity data used in this study were collected by telephone interview and were selected for their relevance to cardiovascular disease. In order to limit confounding by prior health conditions, the sample was restricted to participants in good self-reported health and without a documented history of cardiovascular disease. Results For 1,608 participants meeting the inclusion criteria, the mean age was 64 years, 90 percent were white, 37 percent had a college degree, and 62 percent of participants reported that they walked for exercise. Single built environment characteristics, such as residential density or connectivity, did not significantly predict walking for exercise. Regression models using multiple built environment characteristics to predict walking were not successful at predicting walking for exercise in an independent population sample. In the validation set, none of the logistic models had a C-statistic confidence interval excluding the null value of 0.5, and none of the linear models explained more than one percent of the variance in time spent walking for exercise. We did not detect significant differences in walking for exercise among census areas or postal codes, which were used as proxies for neighborhoods. Conclusion None of the built environment characteristics significantly predicted walking for exercise, nor did combinations of these characteristics predict walking for exercise when tested using a holdout approach. These results reflect a lack of neighborhood-level variation in walking for exercise for the population studied. PMID:18312660

Spatiotemporal Built-up Land Density Mapping Using Various Spectral Indices in Landsat-7 ETM+ and Landsat-8 OLI/TIRS (Case Study: Surakarta City)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Risky, Yanuar S.; Aulia, Yogi H.; Widayani, Prima

2017-12-01

Spectral indices variations support for rapid and accurate extracting information such as built-up density. However, the exact determination of spectral waves for built-up density extraction is lacking. This study explains and compares the capabilities of 5 variations of spectral indices in spatiotemporal built-up density mapping using Landsat-7 ETM+ and Landsat-8 OLI/TIRS in Surakarta City on 2002 and 2015. The spectral indices variations used are 3 mid-infrared (MIR) based indices such as the Normalized Difference Built-up Index (NDBI), Urban Index (UI) and Built-up and 2 visible based indices such as VrNIR-BI (visible red) and VgNIR-BI (visible green). Linear regression statistics between ground value samples from Google Earth image in 2002 and 2015 and spectral indices for determining built-up land density. Ground value used amounted to 27 samples for model and 7 samples for accuracy test. The classification of built-up density mapping is divided into 9 classes: unclassified, 0-12.5%, 12.5-25%, 25-37.5%, 37.5-50%, 50-62.5%, 62.5-75%, 75-87.5% and 87.5-100 %. Accuracy of built-up land density mapping in 2002 and 2015 using VrNIR-BI (81,823% and 73.235%), VgNIR-BI (78.934% and 69.028%), NDBI (34.870% and 74.365%), UI (43.273% and 64.398%) and Built-up (59.755% and 72.664%). Based all spectral indices, Surakarta City on 2000-2015 has increased of built-up land density. VgNIR-BI has better capabilities for built-up land density mapping on Landsat-7 ETM + and Landsat-8 OLI/TIRS.

Prediction of siRNA potency using sparse logistic regression.

PubMed

Hu, Wei; Hu, John

2014-06-01

RNA interference (RNAi) can modulate gene expression at post-transcriptional as well as transcriptional levels. Short interfering RNA (siRNA) serves as a trigger for the RNAi gene inhibition mechanism, and therefore is a crucial intermediate step in RNAi. There have been extensive studies to identify the sequence characteristics of potent siRNAs. One such study built a linear model using LASSO (Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator) to measure the contribution of each siRNA sequence feature. This model is simple and interpretable, but it requires a large number of nonzero weights. We have introduced a novel technique, sparse logistic regression, to build a linear model using single-position specific nucleotide compositions which has the same prediction accuracy of the linear model based on LASSO. The weights in our new model share the same general trend as those in the previous model, but have only 25 nonzero weights out of a total 84 weights, a 54% reduction compared to the previous model. Contrary to the linear model based on LASSO, our model suggests that only a few positions are influential on the efficacy of the siRNA, which are the 5' and 3' ends and the seed region of siRNA sequences. We also employed sparse logistic regression to build a linear model using dual-position specific nucleotide compositions, a task LASSO is not able to accomplish well due to its high dimensional nature. Our results demonstrate the superiority of sparse logistic regression as a technique for both feature selection and regression over LASSO in the context of siRNA design.

Statistical Learning Theory for High Dimensional Prediction: Application to Criterion-Keyed Scale Development

PubMed Central

Chapman, Benjamin P.; Weiss, Alexander; Duberstein, Paul

2016-01-01

Statistical learning theory (SLT) is the statistical formulation of machine learning theory, a body of analytic methods common in “big data” problems. Regression-based SLT algorithms seek to maximize predictive accuracy for some outcome, given a large pool of potential predictors, without overfitting the sample. Research goals in psychology may sometimes call for high dimensional regression. One example is criterion-keyed scale construction, where a scale with maximal predictive validity must be built from a large item pool. Using this as a working example, we first introduce a core principle of SLT methods: minimization of expected prediction error (EPE). Minimizing EPE is fundamentally different than maximizing the within-sample likelihood, and hinges on building a predictive model of sufficient complexity to predict the outcome well, without undue complexity leading to overfitting. We describe how such models are built and refined via cross-validation. We then illustrate how three common SLT algorithms–Supervised Principal Components, Regularization, and Boosting—can be used to construct a criterion-keyed scale predicting all-cause mortality, using a large personality item pool within a population cohort. Each algorithm illustrates a different approach to minimizing EPE. Finally, we consider broader applications of SLT predictive algorithms, both as supportive analytic tools for conventional methods, and as primary analytic tools in discovery phase research. We conclude that despite their differences from the classic null-hypothesis testing approach—or perhaps because of them–SLT methods may hold value as a statistically rigorous approach to exploratory regression. PMID:27454257

Estimating probabilities of infestation and extent of damage by the roundheaded pine beetle in ponderosa pine in the Sacramento Mountains, New Mexico

Treesearch

Jose Negron

1997-01-01

Classification trees and linear regression analysis were used to build models to predict probabilities of infestation and amount of tree mortality in terms of basal area resulting from roundheaded pine beetle, Dendroctonus adjunctus Blandford, activity in ponderosa pine, Pinus ponderosa Laws., in the Sacramento Mountains, New Mexico. Classification trees were built for...

Source apportionment of soil heavy metals using robust absolute principal component scores-robust geographically weighted regression (RAPCS-RGWR) receptor model.

PubMed

Qu, Mingkai; Wang, Yan; Huang, Biao; Zhao, Yongcun

2018-06-01

The traditional source apportionment models, such as absolute principal component scores-multiple linear regression (APCS-MLR), are usually susceptible to outliers, which may be widely present in the regional geochemical dataset. Furthermore, the models are merely built on variable space instead of geographical space and thus cannot effectively capture the local spatial characteristics of each source contributions. To overcome the limitations, a new receptor model, robust absolute principal component scores-robust geographically weighted regression (RAPCS-RGWR), was proposed based on the traditional APCS-MLR model. Then, the new method was applied to the source apportionment of soil metal elements in a region of Wuhan City, China as a case study. Evaluations revealed that: (i) RAPCS-RGWR model had better performance than APCS-MLR model in the identification of the major sources of soil metal elements, and (ii) source contributions estimated by RAPCS-RGWR model were more close to the true soil metal concentrations than that estimated by APCS-MLR model. It is shown that the proposed RAPCS-RGWR model is a more effective source apportionment method than APCS-MLR (i.e., non-robust and global model) in dealing with the regional geochemical dataset. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Multivariate Linear Regression and CART Regression Analysis of TBM Performance at Abu Hamour Phase-I Tunnel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jakubowski, J.; Stypulkowski, J. B.; Bernardeau, F. G.

2017-12-01

The first phase of the Abu Hamour drainage and storm tunnel was completed in early 2017. The 9.5 km long, 3.7 m diameter tunnel was excavated with two Earth Pressure Balance (EPB) Tunnel Boring Machines from Herrenknecht. TBM operation processes were monitored and recorded by Data Acquisition and Evaluation System. The authors coupled collected TBM drive data with available information on rock mass properties, cleansed, completed with secondary variables and aggregated by weeks and shifts. Correlations and descriptive statistics charts were examined. Multivariate Linear Regression and CART regression tree models linking TBM penetration rate (PR), penetration per revolution (PPR) and field penetration index (FPI) with TBM operational and geotechnical characteristics were performed for the conditions of the weak/soft rock of Doha. Both regression methods are interpretable and the data were screened with different computational approaches allowing enriched insight. The primary goal of the analysis was to investigate empirical relations between multiple explanatory and responding variables, to search for best subsets of explanatory variables and to evaluate the strength of linear and non-linear relations. For each of the penetration indices, a predictive model coupling both regression methods was built and validated. The resultant models appeared to be stronger than constituent ones and indicated an opportunity for more accurate and robust TBM performance predictions.

Interval ridge regression (iRR) as a fast and robust method for quantitative prediction and variable selection applied to edible oil adulteration.

PubMed

Jović, Ozren; Smrečki, Neven; Popović, Zora

2016-04-01

A novel quantitative prediction and variable selection method called interval ridge regression (iRR) is studied in this work. The method is performed on six data sets of FTIR, two data sets of UV-vis and one data set of DSC. The obtained results show that models built with ridge regression on optimal variables selected with iRR significantly outperfom models built with ridge regression on all variables in both calibration (6 out of 9 cases) and validation (2 out of 9 cases). In this study, iRR is also compared with interval partial least squares regression (iPLS). iRR outperfomed iPLS in validation (insignificantly in 6 out of 9 cases and significantly in one out of 9 cases for p<0.05). Also, iRR can be a fast alternative to iPLS, especially in case of unknown degree of complexity of analyzed system, i.e. if upper limit of number of latent variables is not easily estimated for iPLS. Adulteration of hempseed (H) oil, a well known health beneficial nutrient, is studied in this work by mixing it with cheap and widely used oils such as soybean (So) oil, rapeseed (R) oil and sunflower (Su) oil. Binary mixture sets of hempseed oil with these three oils (HSo, HR and HSu) and a ternary mixture set of H oil, R oil and Su oil (HRSu) were considered. The obtained accuracy indicates that using iRR on FTIR and UV-vis data, each particular oil can be very successfully quantified (in all 8 cases RMSEP<1.2%). This means that FTIR-ATR coupled with iRR can very rapidly and effectively determine the level of adulteration in the adulterated hempseed oil (R(2)>0.99). Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

[Mapping environmental vulnerability from ETM + data in the Yellow River Mouth Area].

PubMed

Wang, Rui-Yan; Yu, Zhen-Wen; Xia, Yan-Ling; Wang, Xiang-Feng; Zhao, Geng-Xing; Jiang, Shu-Qian

2013-10-01

The environmental vulnerability retrieval is important to support continuing data. The spatial distribution of regional environmental vulnerability was got through remote sensing retrieval. In view of soil and vegetation, the environmental vulnerability evaluation index system was built, and the environmental vulnerability of sampling points was calculated by the AHP-fuzzy method, then the correlation between the sampling points environmental vulnerability and ETM + spectral reflectance ratio including some kinds of conversion data was analyzed to determine the sensitive spectral parameters. Based on that, models of correlation analysis, traditional regression, BP neural network and support vector regression were taken to explain the quantitative relationship between the spectral reflectance and the environmental vulnerability. With this model, the environmental vulnerability distribution was retrieved in the Yellow River Mouth Area. The results showed that the correlation between the environmental vulnerability and the spring NDVI, the September NDVI and the spring brightness was better than others, so they were selected as the sensitive spectral parameters. The model precision result showed that in addition to the support vector model, the other model reached the significant level. While all the multi-variable regression was better than all one-variable regression, and the model accuracy of BP neural network was the best. This study will serve as a reliable theoretical reference for the large spatial scale environmental vulnerability estimation based on remote sensing data.

A computational approach to compare regression modelling strategies in prediction research.

PubMed

Pajouheshnia, Romin; Pestman, Wiebe R; Teerenstra, Steven; Groenwold, Rolf H H

2016-08-25

It is often unclear which approach to fit, assess and adjust a model will yield the most accurate prediction model. We present an extension of an approach for comparing modelling strategies in linear regression to the setting of logistic regression and demonstrate its application in clinical prediction research. A framework for comparing logistic regression modelling strategies by their likelihoods was formulated using a wrapper approach. Five different strategies for modelling, including simple shrinkage methods, were compared in four empirical data sets to illustrate the concept of a priori strategy comparison. Simulations were performed in both randomly generated data and empirical data to investigate the influence of data characteristics on strategy performance. We applied the comparison framework in a case study setting. Optimal strategies were selected based on the results of a priori comparisons in a clinical data set and the performance of models built according to each strategy was assessed using the Brier score and calibration plots. The performance of modelling strategies was highly dependent on the characteristics of the development data in both linear and logistic regression settings. A priori comparisons in four empirical data sets found that no strategy consistently outperformed the others. The percentage of times that a model adjustment strategy outperformed a logistic model ranged from 3.9 to 94.9 %, depending on the strategy and data set. However, in our case study setting the a priori selection of optimal methods did not result in detectable improvement in model performance when assessed in an external data set. The performance of prediction modelling strategies is a data-dependent process and can be highly variable between data sets within the same clinical domain. A priori strategy comparison can be used to determine an optimal logistic regression modelling strategy for a given data set before selecting a final modelling approach.

Can dispersion modeling of air pollution be improved by land-use regression? An example from Stockholm, Sweden

PubMed Central

Korek, Michal; Johansson, Christer; Svensson, Nina; Lind, Tomas; Beelen, Rob; Hoek, Gerard; Pershagen, Göran; Bellander, Tom

2017-01-01

Both dispersion modeling (DM) and land-use regression modeling (LUR) are often used for assessment of long-term air pollution exposure in epidemiological studies, but seldom in combination. We developed a hybrid DM–LUR model using 93 biweekly observations of NOx at 31 sites in greater Stockholm (Sweden). The DM was based on spatially resolved topographic, physiographic and emission data, and hourly meteorological data from a diagnostic wind model. Other data were from land use, meteorology and routine monitoring of NOx. We built a linear regression model for NOx, using a stepwise forward selection of covariates. The resulting model predicted observed NOx (R2=0.89) better than the DM without covariates (R2=0.68, P-interaction <0.001) and with minimal apparent bias. The model included (in descending order of importance) DM, traffic intensity on the nearest street, population (number of inhabitants) within 100 m radius, global radiation (direct sunlight plus diffuse or scattered light) and urban contribution to NOx levels (routine urban NOx, less routine rural NOx). Our results indicate that there is a potential for improving estimates of air pollutant concentrations based on DM, by incorporating further spatial characteristics of the immediate surroundings, possibly accounting for imperfections in the emission data. PMID:27485990

Can dispersion modeling of air pollution be improved by land-use regression? An example from Stockholm, Sweden.

PubMed

Korek, Michal; Johansson, Christer; Svensson, Nina; Lind, Tomas; Beelen, Rob; Hoek, Gerard; Pershagen, Göran; Bellander, Tom

2017-11-01

Both dispersion modeling (DM) and land-use regression modeling (LUR) are often used for assessment of long-term air pollution exposure in epidemiological studies, but seldom in combination. We developed a hybrid DM-LUR model using 93 biweekly observations of NO x at 31 sites in greater Stockholm (Sweden). The DM was based on spatially resolved topographic, physiographic and emission data, and hourly meteorological data from a diagnostic wind model. Other data were from land use, meteorology and routine monitoring of NO x . We built a linear regression model for NO x , using a stepwise forward selection of covariates. The resulting model predicted observed NO x (R 2 =0.89) better than the DM without covariates (R 2 =0.68, P-interaction <0.001) and with minimal apparent bias. The model included (in descending order of importance) DM, traffic intensity on the nearest street, population (number of inhabitants) within 100 m radius, global radiation (direct sunlight plus diffuse or scattered light) and urban contribution to NO x levels (routine urban NO x , less routine rural NO x ). Our results indicate that there is a potential for improving estimates of air pollutant concentrations based on DM, by incorporating further spatial characteristics of the immediate surroundings, possibly accounting for imperfections in the emission data.

Effect of grain port length-diameter ratio on combustion performance in hybrid rocket motors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cai, Guobiao; Zhang, Yuanjun; Tian, Hui; Wang, Pengfei; Yu, Nanjia

2016-11-01

The objectives of this study are to develop a more accurate regression rate considering the oxidizer mass flow and the fuel grain geometry configuration with numerical and experimental investigations in polyethylene (PE)/90% hydrogen peroxide (HP) hybrid rocket. Firstly, a 2-D axisymmetric CFD model with turbulence, chemistry reaction, solid-gas coupling is built to investigate the combustion chamber internal flow structure. Then a more accurate regression formula is proposed and the combustion efficiency changing with the length-diameter ratio is studied. A series experiments are conducted in various oxidizer mass flow to analyze combustion performance including the regression rate and combustion efficiency. The regression rates are measured by the fuel mass reducing and diameter changing. A new regression rate formula considering the fuel grain configuration is proposed in this paper. The combustion efficiency increases with the length-diameter ratio changing. To improve the performance of a hybrid rocket motor, the port length-diameter ratio is suggested 10-12 in the paper.

Individualized Prediction of Heat Stress in Firefighters: A Data-Driven Approach Using Classification and Regression Trees.

PubMed

Mani, Ashutosh; Rao, Marepalli; James, Kelley; Bhattacharya, Amit

2015-01-01

The purpose of this study was to explore data-driven models, based on decision trees, to develop practical and easy to use predictive models for early identification of firefighters who are likely to cross the threshold of hyperthermia during live-fire training. Predictive models were created for three consecutive live-fire training scenarios. The final predicted outcome was a categorical variable: will a firefighter cross the upper threshold of hyperthermia - Yes/No. Two tiers of models were built, one with and one without taking into account the outcome (whether a firefighter crossed hyperthermia or not) from the previous training scenario. First tier of models included age, baseline heart rate and core body temperature, body mass index, and duration of training scenario as predictors. The second tier of models included the outcome of the previous scenario in the prediction space, in addition to all the predictors from the first tier of models. Classification and regression trees were used independently for prediction. The response variable for the regression tree was the quantitative variable: core body temperature at the end of each scenario. The predicted quantitative variable from regression trees was compared to the upper threshold of hyperthermia (38°C) to predict whether a firefighter would enter hyperthermia. The performance of classification and regression tree models was satisfactory for the second (success rate = 79%) and third (success rate = 89%) training scenarios but not for the first (success rate = 43%). Data-driven models based on decision trees can be a useful tool for predicting physiological response without modeling the underlying physiological systems. Early prediction of heat stress coupled with proactive interventions, such as pre-cooling, can help reduce heat stress in firefighters.

Built environment characteristics and parent active transportation are associated with active travel to school in youth age 12–15

PubMed Central

Carlson, Jordan A; Sallis, James F; Kerr, Jacqueline; Conway, Terry L; Cain, Kelli; Frank, Lawrence D; Saelens, Brian E

2015-01-01

Purpose To investigate the relation of factors from multiple levels of ecological models (ie, individual, interpersonal and environmental) to active travel to/from school in an observational study of young adolescents. Methods Participants were 294 12–15-year olds living within two miles of their school. Demographic, psychosocial and perceived built environment characteristics around the home were measured by survey, and objective built environment factors around home and school were assessed in Geographic Information Systems (GIS). Mixed effects multinomial regression models tested correlates of engaging in 1–4 (vs 0) and 5–10 (vs 0) active trips/week to/from school, adjusted for distance and other covariates. Results 64% of participants reported ≥1 active trip/ week to/from school. Significant correlates of occasional and/or habitual active travel to/from school included barriers (ORs=0.27 and 0.15), parent modelling of active travel (OR=3.27 for habitual), perceived street connectivity (OR=1.78 for occasional), perceived pedestrian safety around home (OR=2.04 for habitual), objective street connectivity around home (OR=0.97 for occasional), objective residential density around home (ORs=1.10 and 1.11) and objective residential density around school (OR=1.14 for habitual). Parent modelling interacted with pedestrian safety in explaining active travel to/from school. Conclusions Results supported multilevel correlates of adolescents active travel to school, consistent with ecological models. Correlates of occasional and habitual active travel to/from school were similar. Built environment attributes around schools, particularly residential density, should be considered when siting new schools and redeveloping neighbourhoods around existing schools. PMID:24659503

Built environment characteristics and parent active transportation are associated with active travel to school in youth age 12-15.

PubMed

Carlson, Jordan A; Sallis, James F; Kerr, Jacqueline; Conway, Terry L; Cain, Kelli; Frank, Lawrence D; Saelens, Brian E

2014-12-01

To investigate the relation of factors from multiple levels of ecological models (ie, individual, interpersonal and environmental) to active travel to/from school in an observational study of young adolescents. Participants were 294 12-15-year olds living within two miles of their school. Demographic, psychosocial and perceived built environment characteristics around the home were measured by survey, and objective built environment factors around home and school were assessed in Geographic Information Systems (GIS). Mixed effects multinomial regression models tested correlates of engaging in 1-4 (vs 0) and 5-10 (vs 0) active trips/week to/from school, adjusted for distance and other covariates. 64% of participants reported ≥1 active trip/week to/from school. Significant correlates of occasional and/or habitual active travel to/from school included barriers (ORs=0.27 and 0.15), parent modelling of active travel (OR=3.27 for habitual), perceived street connectivity (OR=1.78 for occasional), perceived pedestrian safety around home (OR=2.04 for habitual), objective street connectivity around home (OR=0.97 for occasional), objective residential density around home (ORs=1.10 and 1.11) and objective residential density around school (OR=1.14 for habitual). Parent modelling interacted with pedestrian safety in explaining active travel to/from school. Results supported multilevel correlates of adolescents' active travel to school, consistent with ecological models. Correlates of occasional and habitual active travel to/from school were similar. Built environment attributes around schools, particularly residential density, should be considered when siting new schools and redeveloping neighbourhoods around existing schools. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Perl-speaks-NONMEM (PsN)--a Perl module for NONMEM related programming.

PubMed

Lindbom, Lars; Ribbing, Jakob; Jonsson, E Niclas

2004-08-01

The NONMEM program is the most widely used nonlinear regression software in population pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) analyses. In this article we describe a programming library, Perl-speaks-NONMEM (PsN), intended for programmers that aim at using the computational capability of NONMEM in external applications. The library is object oriented and written in the programming language Perl. The classes of the library are built around NONMEM's data, model and output files. The specification of the NONMEM model is easily set or changed through the model and data file classes while the output from a model fit is accessed through the output file class. The classes have methods that help the programmer perform common repetitive tasks, e.g. summarising the output from a NONMEM run, setting the initial estimates of a model based on a previous run or truncating values over a certain threshold in the data file. PsN creates a basis for the development of high-level software using NONMEM as the regression tool.

Structure-activity relationships between sterols and their thermal stability in oil matrix.

PubMed

Hu, Yinzhou; Xu, Junli; Huang, Weisu; Zhao, Yajing; Li, Maiquan; Wang, Mengmeng; Zheng, Lufei; Lu, Baiyi

2018-08-30

Structure-activity relationships between 20 sterols and their thermal stabilities were studied in a model oil system. All sterol degradations were found to be consistent with a first-order kinetic model with determination of coefficient (R 2 ) higher than 0.9444. The number of double bonds in the sterol structure was negatively correlated with the thermal stability of sterol, whereas the length of the branch chain was positively correlated with the thermal stability of sterol. A quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) model to predict thermal stability of sterol was developed by using partial least squares regression (PLSR) combined with genetic algorithm (GA). A regression model was built with R 2 of 0.806. Almost all sterol degradation constants can be predicted accurately with R 2 of cross-validation equals to 0.680. Four important variables were selected in optimal QSAR model and the selected variables were observed to be related with information indices, RDF descriptors, and 3D-MoRSE descriptors. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Statistical learning theory for high dimensional prediction: Application to criterion-keyed scale development.

PubMed

Chapman, Benjamin P; Weiss, Alexander; Duberstein, Paul R

2016-12-01

Statistical learning theory (SLT) is the statistical formulation of machine learning theory, a body of analytic methods common in "big data" problems. Regression-based SLT algorithms seek to maximize predictive accuracy for some outcome, given a large pool of potential predictors, without overfitting the sample. Research goals in psychology may sometimes call for high dimensional regression. One example is criterion-keyed scale construction, where a scale with maximal predictive validity must be built from a large item pool. Using this as a working example, we first introduce a core principle of SLT methods: minimization of expected prediction error (EPE). Minimizing EPE is fundamentally different than maximizing the within-sample likelihood, and hinges on building a predictive model of sufficient complexity to predict the outcome well, without undue complexity leading to overfitting. We describe how such models are built and refined via cross-validation. We then illustrate how 3 common SLT algorithms-supervised principal components, regularization, and boosting-can be used to construct a criterion-keyed scale predicting all-cause mortality, using a large personality item pool within a population cohort. Each algorithm illustrates a different approach to minimizing EPE. Finally, we consider broader applications of SLT predictive algorithms, both as supportive analytic tools for conventional methods, and as primary analytic tools in discovery phase research. We conclude that despite their differences from the classic null-hypothesis testing approach-or perhaps because of them-SLT methods may hold value as a statistically rigorous approach to exploratory regression. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Using Regression Equations Built from Summary Data in the Psychological Assessment of the Individual Case: Extension to Multiple Regression

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Crawford, John R.; Garthwaite, Paul H.; Denham, Annie K.; Chelune, Gordon J.

2012-01-01

Regression equations have many useful roles in psychological assessment. Moreover, there is a large reservoir of published data that could be used to build regression equations; these equations could then be employed to test a wide variety of hypotheses concerning the functioning of individual cases. This resource is currently underused because…

Built spaces and features associated with user satisfaction in maternity waiting homes in Malawi.

PubMed

McIntosh, Nathalie; Gruits, Patricia; Oppel, Eva; Shao, Amie

2018-07-01

To assess satisfaction with maternity waiting home built spaces and features in women who are at risk for underutilizing maternity waiting homes (i.e. residential facilities that temporarily house near-term pregnant mothers close to healthcare facilities that provide obstetrical care). Specifically we wanted to answer the questions: (1) Are built spaces and features associated with maternity waiting home user satisfaction? (2) Can built spaces and features designed to improve hygiene, comfort, privacy and function improve maternity waiting home user satisfaction? And (3) Which built spaces and features are most important for maternity waiting home user satisfaction? A cross-sectional study comparing satisfaction with standard and non-standard maternity waiting home designs. Between December 2016 and February 2017 we surveyed expectant mothers at two maternity waiting homes that differed in their design of built spaces and features. We used bivariate analyses to assess if built spaces and features were associated with satisfaction. We compared ratings of built spaces and features between the two maternity waiting homes using chi-squares and t-tests to assess if design features to improve hygiene, comfort, privacy and function were associated with higher satisfaction. We used exploratory robust regression analysis to examine the relationship between built spaces and features and maternity waiting home satisfaction. Two maternity waiting homes in Malawi, one that incorporated non-standardized design features to improve hygiene, comfort, privacy, and function (Kasungu maternity waiting home) and the other that had a standard maternity waiting home design (Dowa maternity waiting home). 322 expectant mothers at risk for underutilizing maternity waiting homes (i.e. first-time mothers and those with no pregnancy risk factors) who had stayed at the Kasungu or Dowa maternity waiting homes. There were significant differences in ratings of built spaces and features between the two differently designed maternity waiting homes, with the non-standard design having higher ratings for: adequacy of toilets, and ratings of heating/cooling, air and water quality, sanitation, toilets/showers and kitchen facilities, building maintenance, sleep area, private storage space, comfort level, outdoor spaces and overall satisfaction (p = <.0001 for all). The final regression model showed that built spaces and features that are most important for maternity waiting home user satisfaction are toilets/showers, guardian spaces, safety, building maintenance, sleep area and private storage space (R 2  = 0.28). The design of maternity waiting home built spaces and features is associated with user satisfaction in women at risk for underutilizing maternity waiting homes, especially related to toilets/showers, guardian spaces, safety, building maintenance, sleep area and private storage space. Improving maternity waiting home built spaces and features may offer a promising area for improving maternity waiting home satisfaction and reducing barriers to maternity waiting home use. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Models based on ultraviolet spectroscopy, polyphenols, oligosaccharides and polysaccharides for prediction of wine astringency.

PubMed

Boulet, Jean-Claude; Trarieux, Corinne; Souquet, Jean-Marc; Ducasse, Maris-Agnés; Caillé, Soline; Samson, Alain; Williams, Pascale; Doco, Thierry; Cheynier, Véronique

2016-01-01

Astringency elicited by tannins is usually assessed by tasting. Alternative methods involving tannin precipitation have been proposed, but they remain time-consuming. Our goal was to propose a faster method and investigate the links between wine composition and astringency. Red wines covering a wide range of astringency intensities, assessed by sensory analysis, were selected. Prediction models based on multiple linear regression (MLR) were built using UV spectrophotometry (190-400 nm) and chemical analysis (enological analysis, polyphenols, oligosaccharides and polysaccharides). Astringency intensity was strongly correlated (R(2) = 0.825) with tannin precipitation by bovine serum albumin (BSA). Wine absorbances at 230 nm (A230) proved more suitable for astringency prediction (R(2) = 0.705) than A280 (R(2) = 0.56) or tannin concentration estimated by phloroglucinolysis (R(2) = 0.59). Three variable models built with A230, oligosaccharides and polysaccharides presented high R(2) and low errors of cross-validation. These models confirmed that polysaccharides decrease astringency perception and indicated a positive relationship between oligosaccharides and astringency. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fast-food restaurants, park access, and insulin resistance among Hispanic youth.

PubMed

Hsieh, Stephanie; Klassen, Ann C; Curriero, Frank C; Caulfield, Laura E; Cheskin, Lawrence J; Davis, Jaimie N; Goran, Michael I; Weigensberg, Marc J; Spruijt-Metz, Donna

2014-04-01

Evidence of associations between the built environment and obesity risk has been steadily building, yet few studies have focused on the relationship between the built environment and aspects of metabolism related to obesity's most tightly linked comorbidity, type 2 diabetes. To examine the relationship between aspects of the neighborhood built environment and insulin resistance using accurate laboratory measures to account for fat distribution and adiposity. Data on 453 Hispanic youth (aged 8-18 years) from 2001 to 2011 were paired with neighborhood built environment and 2000 Census data. Analyses were conducted in 2011. Walking-distance buffers were built around participants' residential locations. Body composition and fat distribution were assessed using dual x-ray absorptiometry and waist circumference. Variables for park space, food access, walkability, and neighborhood sociocultural aspects were entered into a multivariate regression model predicting insulin resistance as determined by the homeostasis model assessment. Independent of obesity measures, greater fast-food restaurant density was associated with higher insulin resistance. Increased park space and neighborhood linguistic isolation were associated with lower insulin resistance among boys. Among girls, park space was associated with lower insulin resistance, but greater neighborhood linguistic isolation was associated with higher insulin resistance. A significant interaction between waist circumference and neighborhood linguistic isolation indicated that the negative association between neighborhood linguistic isolation and insulin resistance diminished with increased waist circumference. Reducing access to fast food and increasing public park space may be valuable to addressing insulin resistance and type 2 diabetes, but effects may vary by gender. Copyright © 2014 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Comparison of regression models for estimation of isometric wrist joint torques using surface electromyography

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Several regression models have been proposed for estimation of isometric joint torque using surface electromyography (SEMG) signals. Common issues related to torque estimation models are degradation of model accuracy with passage of time, electrode displacement, and alteration of limb posture. This work compares the performance of the most commonly used regression models under these circumstances, in order to assist researchers with identifying the most appropriate model for a specific biomedical application. Methods Eleven healthy volunteers participated in this study. A custom-built rig, equipped with a torque sensor, was used to measure isometric torque as each volunteer flexed and extended his wrist. SEMG signals from eight forearm muscles, in addition to wrist joint torque data were gathered during the experiment. Additional data were gathered one hour and twenty-four hours following the completion of the first data gathering session, for the purpose of evaluating the effects of passage of time and electrode displacement on accuracy of models. Acquired SEMG signals were filtered, rectified, normalized and then fed to models for training. Results It was shown that mean adjusted coefficient of determination (Ra2) values decrease between 20%-35% for different models after one hour while altering arm posture decreased mean Ra2 values between 64% to 74% for different models. Conclusions Model estimation accuracy drops significantly with passage of time, electrode displacement, and alteration of limb posture. Therefore model retraining is crucial for preserving estimation accuracy. Data resampling can significantly reduce model training time without losing estimation accuracy. Among the models compared, ordinary least squares linear regression model (OLS) was shown to have high isometric torque estimation accuracy combined with very short training times. PMID:21943179

An hourly PM10 diagnosis model for the Bilbao metropolitan area using a linear regression methodology.

PubMed

González-Aparicio, I; Hidalgo, J; Baklanov, A; Padró, A; Santa-Coloma, O

2013-07-01

There is extensive evidence of the negative impacts on health linked to the rise of the regional background of particulate matter (PM) 10 levels. These levels are often increased over urban areas becoming one of the main air pollution concerns. This is the case on the Bilbao metropolitan area, Spain. This study describes a data-driven model to diagnose PM10 levels in Bilbao at hourly intervals. The model is built with a training period of 7-year historical data covering different urban environments (inland, city centre and coastal sites). The explanatory variables are quantitative-log [NO2], temperature, short-wave incoming radiation, wind speed and direction, specific humidity, hour and vehicle intensity-and qualitative-working days/weekends, season (winter/summer), the hour (from 00 to 23 UTC) and precipitation/no precipitation. Three different linear regression models are compared: simple linear regression; linear regression with interaction terms (INT); and linear regression with interaction terms following the Sawa's Bayesian Information Criteria (INT-BIC). Each type of model is calculated selecting two different periods: the training (it consists of 6 years) and the testing dataset (it consists of 1 year). The results of each type of model show that the INT-BIC-based model (R(2) = 0.42) is the best. Results were R of 0.65, 0.63 and 0.60 for the city centre, inland and coastal sites, respectively, a level of confidence similar to the state-of-the art methodology. The related error calculated for longer time intervals (monthly or seasonal means) diminished significantly (R of 0.75-0.80 for monthly means and R of 0.80 to 0.98 at seasonally means) with respect to shorter periods.

Multi-analyte quantification in bioprocesses by Fourier-transform-infrared spectroscopy by partial least squares regression and multivariate curve resolution.

PubMed

Koch, Cosima; Posch, Andreas E; Goicoechea, Héctor C; Herwig, Christoph; Lendl, Bernhard

2014-01-07

This paper presents the quantification of Penicillin V and phenoxyacetic acid, a precursor, inline during Pencillium chrysogenum fermentations by FTIR spectroscopy and partial least squares (PLS) regression and multivariate curve resolution - alternating least squares (MCR-ALS). First, the applicability of an attenuated total reflection FTIR fiber optic probe was assessed offline by measuring standards of the analytes of interest and investigating matrix effects of the fermentation broth. Then measurements were performed inline during four fed-batch fermentations with online HPLC for the determination of Penicillin V and phenoxyacetic acid as reference analysis. PLS and MCR-ALS models were built using these data and validated by comparison of single analyte spectra with the selectivity ratio of the PLS models and the extracted spectral traces of the MCR-ALS models, respectively. The achieved root mean square errors of cross-validation for the PLS regressions were 0.22 g L(-1) for Penicillin V and 0.32 g L(-1) for phenoxyacetic acid and the root mean square errors of prediction for MCR-ALS were 0.23 g L(-1) for Penicillin V and 0.15 g L(-1) for phenoxyacetic acid. A general work-flow for building and assessing chemometric regression models for the quantification of multiple analytes in bioprocesses by FTIR spectroscopy is given. Copyright © 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Predicting cognitive function from clinical measures of physical function and health status in older adults.

PubMed

Bolandzadeh, Niousha; Kording, Konrad; Salowitz, Nicole; Davis, Jennifer C; Hsu, Liang; Chan, Alison; Sharma, Devika; Blohm, Gunnar; Liu-Ambrose, Teresa

2015-01-01

Current research suggests that the neuropathology of dementia-including brain changes leading to memory impairment and cognitive decline-is evident years before the onset of this disease. Older adults with cognitive decline have reduced functional independence and quality of life, and are at greater risk for developing dementia. Therefore, identifying biomarkers that can be easily assessed within the clinical setting and predict cognitive decline is important. Early recognition of cognitive decline could promote timely implementation of preventive strategies. We included 89 community-dwelling adults aged 70 years and older in our study, and collected 32 measures of physical function, health status and cognitive function at baseline. We utilized an L1-L2 regularized regression model (elastic net) to identify which of the 32 baseline measures were strongly predictive of cognitive function after one year. We built three linear regression models: 1) based on baseline cognitive function, 2) based on variables consistently selected in every cross-validation loop, and 3) a full model based on all the 32 variables. Each of these models was carefully tested with nested cross-validation. Our model with the six variables consistently selected in every cross-validation loop had a mean squared prediction error of 7.47. This number was smaller than that of the full model (115.33) and the model with baseline cognitive function (7.98). Our model explained 47% of the variance in cognitive function after one year. We built a parsimonious model based on a selected set of six physical function and health status measures strongly predictive of cognitive function after one year. In addition to reducing the complexity of the model without changing the model significantly, our model with the top variables improved the mean prediction error and R-squared. These six physical function and health status measures can be easily implemented in a clinical setting.

Geospatial analysis of spaceborne remote sensing data for assessing disaster impacts and modeling surface runoff in the built-environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wodajo, Bikila Teklu

Every year, coastal disasters such as hurricanes and floods claim hundreds of lives and severely damage homes, businesses, and lifeline infrastructure. This research was motivated by the 2005 Hurricane Katrina disaster, which devastated the Mississippi and Louisiana Gulf Coast. The primary objective was to develop a geospatial decision-support system for extracting built-up surfaces and estimating disaster impacts using spaceborne remote sensing satellite imagery. Pre-Katrina 1-m Ikonos imagery of a 5km x 10km area of Gulfport, Mississippi, was used as source data to develop the built-up area and natural surfaces or BANS classification methodology. Autocorrelation of 0.6 or higher values related to spectral reflectance values of groundtruth pixels were used to select spectral bands and establish the BANS decision criteria of unique ranges of reflectance values. Surface classification results using GeoMedia Pro geospatial analysis for Gulfport sample areas, based on BANS criteria and manually drawn polygons, were within +/-7% of the groundtruth. The difference between the BANS results and the groundtruth was statistically not significant. BANS is a significant improvement over other supervised classification methods, which showed only 50% correctly classified pixels. The storm debris and erosion estimation or SDE methodology was developed from analysis of pre- and post-Katrina surface classification results of Gulfport samples. The SDE severity level criteria considered hurricane and flood damages and vulnerability of inhabited built-environment. A linear regression model, with +0.93 Pearson R-value, was developed for predicting SDE as a function of pre-disaster percent built-up area. SDE predictions for Gulfport sample areas, used for validation, were within +/-4% of calculated values. The damage cost model considered maintenance, rehabilitation and reconstruction costs related to infrastructure damage and community impacts of Hurricane Katrina. The developed models were implemented for a study area along I-10 considering the predominantly flood-induced damages in New Orleans. The BANS methodology was calibrated for 0.6-m QuickBird2 multispectral imagery of Karachi Port area in Pakistan. The results were accurate within +/-6% of the groundtruth. Due to its computational simplicity, the unit hydrograph method is recommended for geospatial visualization of surface runoff in the built-environment using BANS surface classification maps and elevations data. Key words. geospatial analysis, satellite imagery, built-environment, hurricane, disaster impacts, runoff.

Research on Influence and Prediction Model of Urban Traffic Link Tunnel curvature on Fire Temperature Based on Pyrosim--SPSS Multiple Regression Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xiao Ju; Yao, Kun; Dai, Jun Yu; Song, Yun Long

2018-05-01

The underground space, also known as the “fourth dimension” of the city, reflects the efficient use of urban development intensive. Urban traffic link tunnel is a typical underground limited-length space. Due to the geographical location, the special structure of space and the curvature of the tunnel, high-temperature smoke can easily form the phenomenon of “smoke turning” and the fire risk is extremely high. This paper takes an urban traffic link tunnel as an example to focus on the relationship between curvature and the temperature near the fire source, and use the pyrosim built different curvature fire model to analyze the influence of curvature on the temperature of the fire, then using SPSS Multivariate regression analysis simulate curvature of the tunnel and fire temperature data. Finally, a prediction model of urban traffic link tunnel curvature on fire temperature was proposed. The regression model analysis and test show that the curvature is negatively correlated with the tunnel temperature. This model is feasible and can provide a theoretical reference for the urban traffic link tunnel fire protection design and the preparation of the evacuation plan. And also, it provides some reference for other related curved tunnel curvature design and smoke control measures.

Simulation of urban land surface temperature based on sub-pixel land cover in a coastal city

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Xiaofeng; Deng, Lei; Feng, Huihui; Zhao, Yanchuang

2014-11-01

The sub-pixel urban land cover has been proved to have obvious correlations with land surface temperature (LST). Yet these relationships have seldom been used to simulate LST. In this study we provided a new approach of urban LST simulation based on sub-pixel land cover modeling. Landsat TM/ETM+ images of Xiamen city, China on both the January of 2002 and 2007 were used to acquire land cover and then extract the transformation rule using logistic regression. The transformation possibility was taken as its percent in the same pixel after normalization. And cellular automata were used to acquire simulated sub-pixel land cover on 2007 and 2017. On the other hand, the correlations between retrieved LST and sub-pixel land cover achieved by spectral mixture analysis in 2002 were examined and a regression model was built. Then the regression model was used on simulated 2007 land cover to model the LST of 2007. Finally the LST of 2017 was simulated for urban planning and management. The results showed that our method is useful in LST simulation. Although the simulation accuracy is not quite satisfactory, it provides an important idea and a good start in the modeling of urban LST.

Stratification for the propensity score compared with linear regression techniques to assess the effect of treatment or exposure.

PubMed

Senn, Stephen; Graf, Erika; Caputo, Angelika

2007-12-30

Stratifying and matching by the propensity score are increasingly popular approaches to deal with confounding in medical studies investigating effects of a treatment or exposure. A more traditional alternative technique is the direct adjustment for confounding in regression models. This paper discusses fundamental differences between the two approaches, with a focus on linear regression and propensity score stratification, and identifies points to be considered for an adequate comparison. The treatment estimators are examined for unbiasedness and efficiency. This is illustrated in an application to real data and supplemented by an investigation on properties of the estimators for a range of underlying linear models. We demonstrate that in specific circumstances the propensity score estimator is identical to the effect estimated from a full linear model, even if it is built on coarser covariate strata than the linear model. As a consequence the coarsening property of the propensity score-adjustment for a one-dimensional confounder instead of a high-dimensional covariate-may be viewed as a way to implement a pre-specified, richly parametrized linear model. We conclude that the propensity score estimator inherits the potential for overfitting and that care should be taken to restrict covariates to those relevant for outcome. Copyright (c) 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

How do changes to the built environment influence walking behaviors? a longitudinal study within a university campus in Hong Kong

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Previous studies testing the association between the built environment and walking behavior have been largely cross-sectional and have yielded mixed results. This study reports on a natural experiment in which changes to the built environment were implemented at a university campus in Hong Kong. Longitudinal data on walking behaviors were collected using surveys, one before and one after changes to the built environment, to test the influence of changes to the built environment on walking behavior. Methods Built environment data are from a university campus in Hong Kong, and include land use, campus bus services, pedestrian network, and population density data collected from campus maps, the university developmental office, and field surveys. Walking behavior data were collected at baseline in March 2012 (n = 198) and after changes to the built environment from the same cohort of subjects in December 2012 (n = 169) using a walking diary. Geographic information systems (GIS) was used to map walking routes and built environment variables, and compare each subject’s walking behaviors and built environment exposure before and after the changes to the built environment. Walking behavior outcomes were changes in: i) walking distance, ii) destination-oriented walking, and iii) walked altitude range. Multivariable linear regression models were used to test for associations between changes to the built environment and changes in walking behaviors. Results Greater pedestrian network connectivity predicted longer walking distances and an increased likelihood of walking as a means of transportation. The increased use of recreational (vs. work) buildings, largely located at mid-range altitudes, as well as increased population density predicted greater walking distances.Having more bus services and a greater population density encouraged people to increase their walked altitude range. Conclusions In this longitudinal study, changes to the built environment were associated with changes in walking behaviors. Use of GIS combined with walking diaries presents a practical method for mapping and measuring changes in the built environment and walking behaviors, respectively. Additional longitudinal studies can help clarify the relationships between the built environment and walking behaviors identified in this natural experiment. PMID:25069949

Epidemiologic programs for computers and calculators. A microcomputer program for multiple logistic regression by unconditional and conditional maximum likelihood methods.

PubMed

Campos-Filho, N; Franco, E L

1989-02-01

A frequent procedure in matched case-control studies is to report results from the multivariate unmatched analyses if they do not differ substantially from the ones obtained after conditioning on the matching variables. Although conceptually simple, this rule requires that an extensive series of logistic regression models be evaluated by both the conditional and unconditional maximum likelihood methods. Most computer programs for logistic regression employ only one maximum likelihood method, which requires that the analyses be performed in separate steps. This paper describes a Pascal microcomputer (IBM PC) program that performs multiple logistic regression by both maximum likelihood estimation methods, which obviates the need for switching between programs to obtain relative risk estimates from both matched and unmatched analyses. The program calculates most standard statistics and allows factoring of categorical or continuous variables by two distinct methods of contrast. A built-in, descriptive statistics option allows the user to inspect the distribution of cases and controls across categories of any given variable.

[Hyperspectral Estimation of Apple Tree Canopy LAI Based on SVM and RF Regression].

PubMed

Han, Zhao-ying; Zhu, Xi-cun; Fang, Xian-yi; Wang, Zhuo-yuan; Wang, Ling; Zhao, Geng-Xing; Jiang, Yuan-mao

2016-03-01

Leaf area index (LAI) is the dynamic index of crop population size. Hyperspectral technology can be used to estimate apple canopy LAI rapidly and nondestructively. It can be provide a reference for monitoring the tree growing and yield estimation. The Red Fuji apple trees of full bearing fruit are the researching objects. Ninety apple trees canopies spectral reflectance and LAI values were measured by the ASD Fieldspec3 spectrometer and LAI-2200 in thirty orchards in constant two years in Qixia research area of Shandong Province. The optimal vegetation indices were selected by the method of correlation analysis of the original spectral reflectance and vegetation indices. The models of predicting the LAI were built with the multivariate regression analysis method of support vector machine (SVM) and random forest (RF). The new vegetation indices, GNDVI527, ND-VI676, RVI682, FD-NVI656 and GRVI517 and the previous two main vegetation indices, NDVI670 and NDVI705, are in accordance with LAI. In the RF regression model, the calibration set decision coefficient C-R2 of 0.920 and validation set decision coefficient V-R2 of 0.889 are higher than the SVM regression model by 0.045 and 0.033 respectively. The root mean square error of calibration set C-RMSE of 0.249, the root mean square error validation set V-RMSE of 0.236 are lower than that of the SVM regression model by 0.054 and 0.058 respectively. Relative analysis of calibrating error C-RPD and relative analysis of validation set V-RPD reached 3.363 and 2.520, 0.598 and 0.262, respectively, which were higher than the SVM regression model. The measured and predicted the scatterplot trend line slope of the calibration set and validation set C-S and V-S are close to 1. The estimation result of RF regression model is better than that of the SVM. RF regression model can be used to estimate the LAI of red Fuji apple trees in full fruit period.

Optimization of Game Formats in U-10 Soccer Using Logistic Regression Analysis

PubMed Central

Amatria, Mario; Arana, Javier; Anguera, M. Teresa; Garzón, Belén

2016-01-01

Abstract Small-sided games provide young soccer players with better opportunities to develop their skills and progress as individual and team players. There is, however, little evidence on the effectiveness of different game formats in different age groups, and furthermore, these formats can vary between and even within countries. The Royal Spanish Soccer Association replaced the traditional grassroots 7-a-side format (F-7) with the 8-a-side format (F-8) in the 2011-12 season and the country’s regional federations gradually followed suit. The aim of this observational methodology study was to investigate which of these formats best suited the learning needs of U-10 players transitioning from 5-aside futsal. We built a multiple logistic regression model to predict the success of offensive moves depending on the game format and the area of the pitch in which the move was initiated. Success was defined as a shot at the goal. We also built two simple logistic regression models to evaluate how the game format influenced the acquisition of technicaltactical skills. It was found that the probability of a shot at the goal was higher in F-7 than in F-8 for moves initiated in the Creation Sector-Own Half (0.08 vs 0.07) and the Creation Sector-Opponent's Half (0.18 vs 0.16). The probability was the same (0.04) in the Safety Sector. Children also had more opportunities to control the ball and pass or take a shot in the F-7 format (0.24 vs 0.20), and these were also more likely to be successful in this format (0.28 vs 0.19). PMID:28031768

Comparison of the Predictive Performance and Interpretability of Random Forest and Linear Models on Benchmark Data Sets.

PubMed

Marchese Robinson, Richard L; Palczewska, Anna; Palczewski, Jan; Kidley, Nathan

2017-08-28

The ability to interpret the predictions made by quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSARs) offers a number of advantages. While QSARs built using nonlinear modeling approaches, such as the popular Random Forest algorithm, might sometimes be more predictive than those built using linear modeling approaches, their predictions have been perceived as difficult to interpret. However, a growing number of approaches have been proposed for interpreting nonlinear QSAR models in general and Random Forest in particular. In the current work, we compare the performance of Random Forest to those of two widely used linear modeling approaches: linear Support Vector Machines (SVMs) (or Support Vector Regression (SVR)) and partial least-squares (PLS). We compare their performance in terms of their predictivity as well as the chemical interpretability of the predictions using novel scoring schemes for assessing heat map images of substructural contributions. We critically assess different approaches for interpreting Random Forest models as well as for obtaining predictions from the forest. We assess the models on a large number of widely employed public-domain benchmark data sets corresponding to regression and binary classification problems of relevance to hit identification and toxicology. We conclude that Random Forest typically yields comparable or possibly better predictive performance than the linear modeling approaches and that its predictions may also be interpreted in a chemically and biologically meaningful way. In contrast to earlier work looking at interpretation of nonlinear QSAR models, we directly compare two methodologically distinct approaches for interpreting Random Forest models. The approaches for interpreting Random Forest assessed in our article were implemented using open-source programs that we have made available to the community. These programs are the rfFC package ( https://r-forge.r-project.org/R/?group_id=1725 ) for the R statistical programming language and the Python program HeatMapWrapper [ https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.495163 ] for heat map generation.

The effect of thermal treatment on the enhancement of detection of adulteration in extra virgin olive oils by synchronous fluorescence spectroscopy and chemometric analysis.

PubMed

Mabood, F; Boqué, R; Folcarelli, R; Busto, O; Jabeen, F; Al-Harrasi, Ahmed; Hussain, J

2016-05-15

In this study the effect of thermal treatment on the enhancement of synchronous fluorescence spectroscopic method for discrimination and quantification of pure extra virgin olive oil (EVOO) samples from EVOO samples adulterated with refined oil was investigated. Two groups of samples were used. One group was analyzed at room temperature (25 °C) and the other group was thermally treated in a thermostatic water bath at 75 °C for 8h, in contact with air and with light exposure, to favor oxidation. All the samples were then measured with synchronous fluorescence spectroscopy. Synchronous fluorescence spectra were acquired by varying the wavelength in the region from 250 to 720 nm at 20 nm wavelength differential interval of excitation and emission. Pure and adulterated olive oils were discriminated by using partial least-squares discriminant analysis (PLS-DA). It was found that the best PLS-DA models were those built with the difference spectra (75 °C-25 °C), which were able to discriminate pure from adulterated oils at a 2% level of adulteration of refined olive oils. Furthermore, PLS regression models were also built to quantify the level of adulteration. Again, the best model was the one built with the difference spectra, with a prediction error of 3.18% of adulteration. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The effect of thermal treatment on the enhancement of detection of adulteration in extra virgin olive oils by synchronous fluorescence spectroscopy and chemometric analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mabood, F.; Boqué, R.; Folcarelli, R.; Busto, O.; Jabeen, F.; Al-Harrasi, Ahmed; Hussain, J.

2016-05-01

In this study the effect of thermal treatment on the enhancement of synchronous fluorescence spectroscopic method for discrimination and quantification of pure extra virgin olive oil (EVOO) samples from EVOO samples adulterated with refined oil was investigated. Two groups of samples were used. One group was analyzed at room temperature (25 °C) and the other group was thermally treated in a thermostatic water bath at 75 °C for 8 h, in contact with air and with light exposure, to favor oxidation. All the samples were then measured with synchronous fluorescence spectroscopy. Synchronous fluorescence spectra were acquired by varying the wavelength in the region from 250 to 720 nm at 20 nm wavelength differential interval of excitation and emission. Pure and adulterated olive oils were discriminated by using partial least-squares discriminant analysis (PLS-DA). It was found that the best PLS-DA models were those built with the difference spectra (75 °C-25 °C), which were able to discriminate pure from adulterated oils at a 2% level of adulteration of refined olive oils. Furthermore, PLS regression models were also built to quantify the level of adulteration. Again, the best model was the one built with the difference spectra, with a prediction error of 3.18% of adulteration.

Comparison of three chemometrics methods for near-infrared spectra of glucose in the whole blood

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Hongyan; Ding, Dong; Li, Xin; Chen, Yu; Tang, Yuguo

2005-01-01

Principal Component Regression (PCR), Partial Least Square (PLS) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) methods are used in the analysis for the near infrared (NIR) spectra of glucose in the whole blood. The calibration model is built up in the spectrum band where there are the glucose has much more spectral absorption than the water, fat, and protein with these methods and the correlation coefficients of the model are showed in this paper. Comparing these results, a suitable method to analyze the glucose NIR spectrum in the whole blood is found.

Air Leakage of US Homes: Regression Analysis and Improvements from Retrofit

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chan, Wanyu R.; Joh, Jeffrey; Sherman, Max H.

2012-08-01

LBNL Residential Diagnostics Database (ResDB) contains blower door measurements and other diagnostic test results of homes in United States. Of these, approximately 134,000 single-family detached homes have sufficient information for the analysis of air leakage in relation to a number of housing characteristics. We performed regression analysis to consider the correlation between normalized leakage and a number of explanatory variables: IECC climate zone, floor area, height, year built, foundation type, duct location, and other characteristics. The regression model explains 68% of the observed variability in normalized leakage. ResDB also contains the before and after retrofit air leakage measurements of approximatelymore » 23,000 homes that participated in weatherization assistant programs (WAPs) or residential energy efficiency programs. The two types of programs achieve rather similar reductions in normalized leakage: 30% for WAPs and 20% for other energy programs.« less

Combined Prediction Model of Death Toll for Road Traffic Accidents Based on Independent and Dependent Variables

PubMed Central

Zhong-xiang, Feng; Shi-sheng, Lu; Wei-hua, Zhang; Nan-nan, Zhang

2014-01-01

In order to build a combined model which can meet the variation rule of death toll data for road traffic accidents and can reflect the influence of multiple factors on traffic accidents and improve prediction accuracy for accidents, the Verhulst model was built based on the number of death tolls for road traffic accidents in China from 2002 to 2011; and car ownership, population, GDP, highway freight volume, highway passenger transportation volume, and highway mileage were chosen as the factors to build the death toll multivariate linear regression model. Then the two models were combined to be a combined prediction model which has weight coefficient. Shapley value method was applied to calculate the weight coefficient by assessing contributions. Finally, the combined model was used to recalculate the number of death tolls from 2002 to 2011, and the combined model was compared with the Verhulst and multivariate linear regression models. The results showed that the new model could not only characterize the death toll data characteristics but also quantify the degree of influence to the death toll by each influencing factor and had high accuracy as well as strong practicability. PMID:25610454

Combined prediction model of death toll for road traffic accidents based on independent and dependent variables.

PubMed

Feng, Zhong-xiang; Lu, Shi-sheng; Zhang, Wei-hua; Zhang, Nan-nan

2014-01-01

In order to build a combined model which can meet the variation rule of death toll data for road traffic accidents and can reflect the influence of multiple factors on traffic accidents and improve prediction accuracy for accidents, the Verhulst model was built based on the number of death tolls for road traffic accidents in China from 2002 to 2011; and car ownership, population, GDP, highway freight volume, highway passenger transportation volume, and highway mileage were chosen as the factors to build the death toll multivariate linear regression model. Then the two models were combined to be a combined prediction model which has weight coefficient. Shapley value method was applied to calculate the weight coefficient by assessing contributions. Finally, the combined model was used to recalculate the number of death tolls from 2002 to 2011, and the combined model was compared with the Verhulst and multivariate linear regression models. The results showed that the new model could not only characterize the death toll data characteristics but also quantify the degree of influence to the death toll by each influencing factor and had high accuracy as well as strong practicability.

Psychosocial factors influencing smokeless tobacco use by teen-age military dependents.

PubMed

Lee, S; Raker, T; Chisick, M C

1994-02-01

Using bivariate and logistic regression analysis, we explored psychosocial correlates of smokeless tobacco (SLT) use in a sample of 2,257 teenage military dependents. We built separate regression models for males and females to explain triers and users of SLT. Results show female and male triers share five factors regarding SLT use--parental and peer approval, trying smoking, relatives using SLT, and athletic team membership. Male trial of SLT was additionally associated with race, difficulty in purchasing SLT, relatives who smoke, current smoking, and belief that SLT can cause mouth cancer. Male use of SLT was associated with race, seeing a dentist regularly, SLT counseling by a dentist, parental approval, trying and current smoking, and grade level. In all models, trying smoking was the strongest explanatory variable. Relatives and peers exert considerable influence on SLT use. Few triers or users had received SLT counseling from their dentist despite high dental utilization rates.

Optimization of Bioethanol Production Using Whole Plant of Water Hyacinth as Substrate in Simultaneous Saccharification and Fermentation Process

PubMed Central

Zhang, Qiuzhuo; Weng, Chen; Huang, Huiqin; Achal, Varenyam; Wang, Duanchao

2016-01-01

Water hyacinth was used as substrate for bioethanol production in the present study. Combination of acid pretreatment and enzymatic hydrolysis was the most effective process for sugar production that resulted in the production of 402.93 mg reducing sugar at optimal condition. A regression model was built to optimize the fermentation factors according to response surface method in saccharification and fermentation (SSF) process. The optimized condition for ethanol production by SSF process was fermented at 38.87°C in 81.87 h when inoculated with 6.11 ml yeast, where 1.291 g/L bioethanol was produced. Meanwhile, 1.289 g/L ethanol was produced during experimentation, which showed reliability of presented regression model in this research. The optimization method discussed in the present study leading to relatively high bioethanol production could provide a promising way for Alien Invasive Species with high cellulose content. PMID:26779125

Predicting Active Users' Personality Based on Micro-Blogging Behaviors

PubMed Central

Hao, Bibo; Guan, Zengda; Zhu, Tingshao

2014-01-01

Because of its richness and availability, micro-blogging has become an ideal platform for conducting psychological research. In this paper, we proposed to predict active users' personality traits through micro-blogging behaviors. 547 Chinese active users of micro-blogging participated in this study. Their personality traits were measured by the Big Five Inventory, and digital records of micro-blogging behaviors were collected via web crawlers. After extracting 845 micro-blogging behavioral features, we first trained classification models utilizing Support Vector Machine (SVM), differentiating participants with high and low scores on each dimension of the Big Five Inventory. The classification accuracy ranged from 84% to 92%. We also built regression models utilizing PaceRegression methods, predicting participants' scores on each dimension of the Big Five Inventory. The Pearson correlation coefficients between predicted scores and actual scores ranged from 0.48 to 0.54. Results indicated that active users' personality traits could be predicted by micro-blogging behaviors. PMID:24465462

Thermal oxidation process accelerates degradation of the olive oil mixed with sunflower oil and enables its discrimination using synchronous fluorescence spectroscopy and chemometric analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mabood, Fazal; Boqué, Ricard; Folcarelli, Rita; Busto, Olga; Al-Harrasi, Ahmed; Hussain, Javid

2015-05-01

We have investigated the effect of thermal treatment on the discrimination of pure extra virgin olive oil (EVOO) samples from EVOO samples adulterated with sunflower oil. Two groups of samples were used. One group was analyzed at room temperature (25 °C) and the other group was thermally treated in a thermostatic water bath at 75 °C for 8 h, in contact with air and with light exposure, to favor oxidation. All samples were then measured with synchronous fluorescence spectroscopy. Fluorescence spectra were acquired by varying the excitation wavelength in the region from 250 to 720 nm. In order to optimize the differences between excitation and emission wavelengths, four constant differential wavelengths, i.e., 20 nm, 40 nm, 60 nm and 80 nm, were tried. Partial least-squares discriminant analysis (PLS-DA) was used to discriminate between pure and adulterated oils. It was found that the 20 nm difference was the optimal, at which the discrimination models showed the best results. The best PLS-DA models were those built with the difference spectra (75-25 °C), which were able to discriminate pure from adulterated oils at a 2% level of adulteration. Furthermore, PLS regression models were built to quantify the level of adulteration. Again, the best model was the one built with the difference spectra, with a prediction error of 1.75% of adulteration.

Non-linear effects of the built environment on automobile-involved pedestrian crash frequency: A machine learning approach.

PubMed

Ding, Chuan; Chen, Peng; Jiao, Junfeng

2018-03-01

Although a growing body of literature focuses on the relationship between the built environment and pedestrian crashes, limited evidence is provided about the relative importance of many built environment attributes by accounting for their mutual interaction effects and their non-linear effects on automobile-involved pedestrian crashes. This study adopts the approach of Multiple Additive Poisson Regression Trees (MAPRT) to fill such gaps using pedestrian collision data collected from Seattle, Washington. Traffic analysis zones are chosen as the analytical unit. The effects of various factors on pedestrian crash frequency investigated include characteristics the of road network, street elements, land use patterns, and traffic demand. Density and the degree of mixed land use have major effects on pedestrian crash frequency, accounting for approximately 66% of the effects in total. More importantly, some factors show clear non-linear relationships with pedestrian crash frequency, challenging the linearity assumption commonly used in existing studies which employ statistical models. With various accurately identified non-linear relationships between the built environment and pedestrian crashes, this study suggests local agencies to adopt geo-spatial differentiated policies to establish a safe walking environment. These findings, especially the effective ranges of the built environment, provide evidence to support for transport and land use planning, policy recommendations, and road safety programs. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Older adults' quality of life - Exploring the role of the built environment and social cohesion in community-dwelling seniors on low income.

PubMed

Engel, L; Chudyk, A M; Ashe, M C; McKay, H A; Whitehurst, D G T; Bryan, S

2016-09-01

The built environment and social cohesion are increasingly recognized as being associated with older adults' quality of life (QoL). However, limited research in this area still exists and the relationship has remained unexplored in the area of Metro Vancouver, Canada. This study examined the association between the built environment and social cohesion with QoL of 160 community-dwelling older adults (aged ≥ 65 years) on low income from Metro Vancouver. Cross-sectional data acquired from the Walk the Talk (WTT) study were used. Health-related QoL (HRQoL) and capability wellbeing were assessed using the EQ-5D-5L and the ICECAP-O, respectively. Measures of the environment comprised the NEWS-A (perceived built environment measure), the Street Smart Walk Score (objective built environment measure), and the SC-5PT (a measure of social cohesion). The primary analysis consists of Tobit regression models to explore the associations between environmental features and HRQoL as well as capability wellbeing. Key findings indicate that after adjusting for covariates, older adults' capability wellbeing was associated with street connectivity and social cohesion, while no statistically significant associations were found between environmental factors and HRQoL. Our results should be considered as hypothesis-generating and need confirmation in a larger longitudinal study. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Beware of external validation! - A Comparative Study of Several Validation Techniques used in QSAR Modelling.

PubMed

Majumdar, Subhabrata; Basak, Subhash C

2018-04-26

Proper validation is an important aspect of QSAR modelling. External validation is one of the widely used validation methods in QSAR where the model is built on a subset of the data and validated on the rest of the samples. However, its effectiveness for datasets with a small number of samples but large number of predictors remains suspect. Calculating hundreds or thousands of molecular descriptors using currently available software has become the norm in QSAR research, owing to computational advances in the past few decades. Thus, for n chemical compounds and p descriptors calculated for each molecule, the typical chemometric dataset today has high value of p but small n (i.e. n < p). Motivated by the evidence of inadequacies of external validation in estimating the true predictive capability of a statistical model in recent literature, this paper performs an extensive and comparative study of this method with several other validation techniques. We compared four validation methods: leave-one-out, K-fold, external and multi-split validation, using statistical models built using the LASSO regression, which simultaneously performs variable selection and modelling. We used 300 simulated datasets and one real dataset of 95 congeneric amine mutagens for this evaluation. External validation metrics have high variation among different random splits of the data, hence are not recommended for predictive QSAR models. LOO has the overall best performance among all validation methods applied in our scenario. Results from external validation are too unstable for the datasets we analyzed. Based on our findings, we recommend using the LOO procedure for validating QSAR predictive models built on high-dimensional small-sample data. Copyright© Bentham Science Publishers; For any queries, please email at epub@benthamscience.org.

Prediction of strontium bromide laser efficiency using cluster and decision tree analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iliev, Iliycho; Gocheva-Ilieva, Snezhana; Kulin, Chavdar

2018-01-01

Subject of investigation is a new high-powered strontium bromide (SrBr2) vapor laser emitting in multiline region of wavelengths. The laser is an alternative to the atom strontium lasers and electron free lasers, especially at the line 6.45 μm which line is used in surgery for medical processing of biological tissues and bones with minimal damage. In this paper the experimental data from measurements of operational and output characteristics of the laser are statistically processed by means of cluster analysis and tree-based regression techniques. The aim is to extract the more important relationships and dependences from the available data which influence the increase of the overall laser efficiency. There are constructed and analyzed a set of cluster models. It is shown by using different cluster methods that the seven investigated operational characteristics (laser tube diameter, length, supplied electrical power, and others) and laser efficiency are combined in 2 clusters. By the built regression tree models using Classification and Regression Trees (CART) technique there are obtained dependences to predict the values of efficiency, and especially the maximum efficiency with over 95% accuracy.

Imaging genetics approach to predict progression of Parkinson's diseases.

PubMed

Mansu Kim; Seong-Jin Son; Hyunjin Park

2017-07-01

Imaging genetics is a tool to extract genetic variants associated with both clinical phenotypes and imaging information. The approach can extract additional genetic variants compared to conventional approaches to better investigate various diseased conditions. Here, we applied imaging genetics to study Parkinson's disease (PD). We aimed to extract significant features derived from imaging genetics and neuroimaging. We built a regression model based on extracted significant features combining genetics and neuroimaging to better predict clinical scores of PD progression (i.e. MDS-UPDRS). Our model yielded high correlation (r = 0.697, p <; 0.001) and low root mean squared error (8.36) between predicted and actual MDS-UPDRS scores. Neuroimaging (from 123 I-Ioflupane SPECT) predictors of regression model were computed from independent component analysis approach. Genetic features were computed using image genetics approach based on identified neuroimaging features as intermediate phenotypes. Joint modeling of neuroimaging and genetics could provide complementary information and thus have the potential to provide further insight into the pathophysiology of PD. Our model included newly found neuroimaging features and genetic variants which need further investigation.

Gbm.auto: A software tool to simplify spatial modelling and Marine Protected Area planning

PubMed Central

Officer, Rick; Clarke, Maurice; Reid, David G.; Brophy, Deirdre

2017-01-01

Boosted Regression Trees. Excellent for data-poor spatial management but hard to use Marine resource managers and scientists often advocate spatial approaches to manage data-poor species. Existing spatial prediction and management techniques are either insufficiently robust, struggle with sparse input data, or make suboptimal use of multiple explanatory variables. Boosted Regression Trees feature excellent performance and are well suited to modelling the distribution of data-limited species, but are extremely complicated and time-consuming to learn and use, hindering access for a wide potential user base and therefore limiting uptake and usage. BRTs automated and simplified for accessible general use with rich feature set We have built a software suite in R which integrates pre-existing functions with new tailor-made functions to automate the processing and predictive mapping of species abundance data: by automating and greatly simplifying Boosted Regression Tree spatial modelling, the gbm.auto R package suite makes this powerful statistical modelling technique more accessible to potential users in the ecological and modelling communities. The package and its documentation allow the user to generate maps of predicted abundance, visualise the representativeness of those abundance maps and to plot the relative influence of explanatory variables and their relationship to the response variables. Databases of the processed model objects and a report explaining all the steps taken within the model are also generated. The package includes a previously unavailable Decision Support Tool which combines estimated escapement biomass (the percentage of an exploited population which must be retained each year to conserve it) with the predicted abundance maps to generate maps showing the location and size of habitat that should be protected to conserve the target stocks (candidate MPAs), based on stakeholder priorities, such as the minimisation of fishing effort displacement. Gbm.auto for management in various settings By bridging the gap between advanced statistical methods for species distribution modelling and conservation science, management and policy, these tools can allow improved spatial abundance predictions, and therefore better management, decision-making, and conservation. Although this package was built to support spatial management of a data-limited marine elasmobranch fishery, it should be equally applicable to spatial abundance modelling, area protection, and stakeholder engagement in various scenarios. PMID:29216310

Electronic media time and sedentary behaviors in children: Findings from the Built Environment and Active Play Study in the Washington DC area.

PubMed

Roberts, Jennifer D; Rodkey, Lindsey; Ray, Rashawn; Knight, Brandon; Saelens, Brian E

2017-06-01

An objective of the Built Environment and Active Play (BEAP) Study was to examine whether home built environment, bedroom electronic presence, parental rules and demographics predicted children's sedentary behavior (SB). In 2014, BEAP Study questionnaires were mailed to 2000 parents of children (7-12 years) within the Washington DC area. SB-Duration (hours/day) and SB-Frequency (days/week) were assessed by two questions with multiple subparts relating to SB activity type (e.g. car riding) and SB companionship (e.g. friends). Built environment, bedroom electronic presence, parental rules and demographic data were obtained through questionnaire items and ordered logistic regression models were used to examine whether these variables were associated with SB. Study sample included 144 children (female (50%); average age (9.7 years); White (56.3%); Black/African-American (23.7%); Asian-Americans (10.4%)). Nearly 40% of the sample reported daily solitary SB with car riding being the most frequently reported type of SB. Children living on streets without a dead-end/cul-de-sac exhibited a higher odds in SB-Duration using electric media [2.61 (CI: 1.31, 5.18)] and having no television in a child's bedroom was associated with a lower odds in SB-Frequency [0.048 (CI: 0.006, 0.393)] and SB-Duration [0.085 (CI: 0.018, 0.395)]. Non-Hispanic/Latino children were also found to have higher odds in solitary SB-Frequency when parental rules of electronic use were modeled [8.56 (CI: 1.11, 66.01)]. Based on results from this cross-sectional study, home neighborhood built environment, bedroom electronic presence and absence of parental rules can significantly predict children's SB.

Interactions of psychosocial factors with built environments in explaining adolescents' active transportation.

PubMed

Wang, Xiaobo; Conway, Terry L; Cain, Kelli L; Frank, Lawrence D; Saelens, Brian E; Geremia, Carrie; Kerr, Jacqueline; Glanz, Karen; Carlson, Jordan A; Sallis, James F

2017-07-01

The present study examined independent and interacting associations of psychosocial and neighborhood built environment variables with adolescents' reported active transportation. Moderating effects of adolescent sex were explored. Mixed-effects regression models were conducted on data from the Teen Environment and Neighborhood observational study (N=928) in the Seattle, WA and Baltimore regions 2009-2011. Frequency index of active transportation to neighborhood destinations (dependent variable) and 7 psychosocial measures were reported by adolescents. Built environment measures included home walkability and count of nearby parks and recreation facilities using GIS procedures and streetscape quality from environmental audits. Results indicated all 3 environmental variables and 3 psychosocial variables (self-efficacy, social support from peers, and enjoyment of physical activity) had significant positive main effects with active transportation (Ps<0.05). Three of 21 two-way interactions were significant in explaining active transportation (Ps<0.1): self-efficacy×GIS-based walkability index, barriers to activity in neighborhood×MAPS streetscape scores, and self-efficacy×GIS-based counts of parks and recreation facilities. In each two-way interaction the highest active transportation was found among adolescents with the combination of activity-supportive built environment and positive psychosocial characteristics. Three-way interactions with sex indicated similar associations for girls and boys, with one exception. Results provided modest support for the ecological model principle of interactions across levels, highlight the importance of both built environment and psychosocial factors in shaping adolescents' active transportation, demonstrated the possibility of sex-specific findings, and suggested strategies for improving adolescents' active transportation may be most effective when targeting multiple levels of influence. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Neighbourhood looking glass: 360º automated characterisation of the built environment for neighbourhood effects research.

PubMed

Nguyen, Quynh C; Sajjadi, Mehdi; McCullough, Matt; Pham, Minh; Nguyen, Thu T; Yu, Weijun; Meng, Hsien-Wen; Wen, Ming; Li, Feifei; Smith, Ken R; Brunisholz, Kim; Tasdizen, Tolga

2018-03-01

Neighbourhood quality has been connected with an array of health issues, but neighbourhood research has been limited by the lack of methods to characterise large geographical areas. This study uses innovative computer vision methods and a new big data source of street view images to automatically characterise neighbourhood built environments. A total of 430 000 images were obtained using Google's Street View Image API for Salt Lake City, Chicago and Charleston. Convolutional neural networks were used to create indicators of street greenness, crosswalks and building type. We implemented log Poisson regression models to estimate associations between built environment features and individual prevalence of obesity and diabetes in Salt Lake City, controlling for individual-level and zip code-level predisposing characteristics. Computer vision models had an accuracy of 86%-93% compared with manual annotations. Charleston had the highest percentage of green streets (79%), while Chicago had the highest percentage of crosswalks (23%) and commercial buildings/apartments (59%). Built environment characteristics were categorised into tertiles, with the highest tertile serving as the referent group. Individuals living in zip codes with the most green streets, crosswalks and commercial buildings/apartments had relative obesity prevalences that were 25%-28% lower and relative diabetes prevalences that were 12%-18% lower than individuals living in zip codes with the least abundance of these neighbourhood features. Neighbourhood conditions may influence chronic disease outcomes. Google Street View images represent an underused data resource for the construction of built environment features. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

High and low frequency unfolded partial least squares regression based on empirical mode decomposition for quantitative analysis of fuel oil samples.

PubMed

Bian, Xihui; Li, Shujuan; Lin, Ligang; Tan, Xiaoyao; Fan, Qingjie; Li, Ming

2016-06-21

Accurate prediction of the model is fundamental to the successful analysis of complex samples. To utilize abundant information embedded over frequency and time domains, a novel regression model is presented for quantitative analysis of hydrocarbon contents in the fuel oil samples. The proposed method named as high and low frequency unfolded PLSR (HLUPLSR), which integrates empirical mode decomposition (EMD) and unfolded strategy with partial least squares regression (PLSR). In the proposed method, the original signals are firstly decomposed into a finite number of intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) and a residue by EMD. Secondly, the former high frequency IMFs are summed as a high frequency matrix and the latter IMFs and residue are summed as a low frequency matrix. Finally, the two matrices are unfolded to an extended matrix in variable dimension, and then the PLSR model is built between the extended matrix and the target values. Coupled with Ultraviolet (UV) spectroscopy, HLUPLSR has been applied to determine hydrocarbon contents of light gas oil and diesel fuels samples. Comparing with single PLSR and other signal processing techniques, the proposed method shows superiority in prediction ability and better model interpretation. Therefore, HLUPLSR method provides a promising tool for quantitative analysis of complex samples. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Using a Guided Machine Learning Ensemble Model to Predict Discharge Disposition following Meningioma Resection.

PubMed

Muhlestein, Whitney E; Akagi, Dallin S; Kallos, Justiss A; Morone, Peter J; Weaver, Kyle D; Thompson, Reid C; Chambless, Lola B

2018-04-01

Objective  Machine learning (ML) algorithms are powerful tools for predicting patient outcomes. This study pilots a novel approach to algorithm selection and model creation using prediction of discharge disposition following meningioma resection as a proof of concept. Materials and Methods  A diversity of ML algorithms were trained on a single-institution database of meningioma patients to predict discharge disposition. Algorithms were ranked by predictive power and top performers were combined to create an ensemble model. The final ensemble was internally validated on never-before-seen data to demonstrate generalizability. The predictive power of the ensemble was compared with a logistic regression. Further analyses were performed to identify how important variables impact the ensemble. Results  Our ensemble model predicted disposition significantly better than a logistic regression (area under the curve of 0.78 and 0.71, respectively, p  = 0.01). Tumor size, presentation at the emergency department, body mass index, convexity location, and preoperative motor deficit most strongly influence the model, though the independent impact of individual variables is nuanced. Conclusion  Using a novel ML technique, we built a guided ML ensemble model that predicts discharge destination following meningioma resection with greater predictive power than a logistic regression, and that provides greater clinical insight than a univariate analysis. These techniques can be extended to predict many other patient outcomes of interest.

Current Risk Adjustment and Comorbidity Index Underperformance in Predicting Post-Acute Utilization and Hospital Readmissions After Joint Replacements: Implications for Comprehensive Care for Joint Replacement Model.

PubMed

Kumar, Amit; Karmarkar, Amol; Downer, Brian; Vashist, Amit; Adhikari, Deepak; Al Snih, Soham; Ottenbacher, Kenneth

2017-11-01

To compare the performances of 3 comorbidity indices, the Charlson Comorbidity Index, the Elixhauser Comorbidity Index, and the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) risk adjustment model, Hierarchical Condition Category (HCC), in predicting post-acute discharge settings and hospital readmission for patients after joint replacement. A retrospective study of Medicare beneficiaries with total knee replacement (TKR) or total hip replacement (THR) discharged from hospitals in 2009-2011 (n = 607,349) was performed. Study outcomes were post-acute discharge setting and unplanned 30-, 60-, and 90-day hospital readmissions. Logistic regression models were built to compare the performance of the 3 comorbidity indices using C statistics. The base model included patient demographics and hospital use. Subsequent models included 1 of the 3 comorbidity indices. Additional multivariable logistic regression models were built to identify individual comorbid conditions associated with high risk of hospital readmissions. The 30-, 60-, and 90-day unplanned hospital readmission rates were 5.3%, 7.2%, and 8.5%, respectively. Patients were most frequently discharged to home health (46.3%), followed by skilled nursing facility (40.9%) and inpatient rehabilitation facility (12.7%). The C statistics for the base model in predicting post-acute discharge setting and 30-, 60-, and 90-day readmission in TKR and THR were between 0.63 and 0.67. Adding the Charlson Comorbidity Index, the Elixhauser Comorbidity Index, or HCC increased the C statistic minimally from the base model for predicting both discharge settings and hospital readmission. The health conditions most frequently associated with hospital readmission were diabetes mellitus, pulmonary disease, arrhythmias, and heart disease. The comorbidity indices and CMS-HCC demonstrated weak discriminatory ability to predict post-acute discharge settings and hospital readmission following joint replacement. © 2017, American College of Rheumatology.

Potential serum biomarkers from a metabolomics study of autism

PubMed Central

Wang, Han; Liang, Shuang; Wang, Maoqing; Gao, Jingquan; Sun, Caihong; Wang, Jia; Xia, Wei; Wu, Shiying; Sumner, Susan J.; Zhang, Fengyu; Sun, Changhao; Wu, Lijie

2016-01-01

Background Early detection and diagnosis are very important for autism. Current diagnosis of autism relies mainly on some observational questionnaires and interview tools that may involve a great variability. We performed a metabolomics analysis of serum to identify potential biomarkers for the early diagnosis and clinical evaluation of autism. Methods We analyzed a discovery cohort of patients with autism and participants without autism in the Chinese Han population using ultra-performance liquid chromatography quadrupole time-of-flight tandem mass spectrometry (UPLC/Q-TOF MS/MS) to detect metabolic changes in serum associated with autism. The potential metabolite candidates for biomarkers were individually validated in an additional independent cohort of cases and controls. We built a multiple logistic regression model to evaluate the validated biomarkers. Results We included 73 patients and 63 controls in the discovery cohort and 100 cases and 100 controls in the validation cohort. Metabolomic analysis of serum in the discovery stage identified 17 metabolites, 11 of which were validated in an independent cohort. A multiple logistic regression model built on the 11 validated metabolites fit well in both cohorts. The model consistently showed that autism was associated with 2 particular metabolites: sphingosine 1-phosphate and docosahexaenoic acid. Limitations While autism is diagnosed predominantly in boys, we were unable to perform the analysis by sex owing to difficulty recruiting enough female patients. Other limitations include the need to perform test–retest assessment within the same individual and the relatively small sample size. Conclusion Two metabolites have potential as biomarkers for the clinical diagnosis and evaluation of autism. PMID:26395811

Impact of urban built environment on urban short-distance taxi travel: the case of Shanghai

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Zhuoye; Zhuo, Jian

2018-05-01

The excessive individual motorized transport is the main cause of urban congestion and generates negative consequences on urban environmental quality, energy consumption, infrastructure supply and urban security. Bicycle can compete effectively with automobile for short-distance travels within 3km. If we take action to encourage the rider to shift from automobile to bike for the short-distance travels, it leaves us a great chance to reduce the modal share of individual motorized mode. This paper focus on the spatial impact of built environment on short-distance taxi riders’ travel behaviour. The data sources include taxi trajectory data for a week, demographic data of the Sixth National Census, POI data. In this paper, we figure out the volumes and spatial distribution of short-distance taxi travel in the central city of Shanghai. We build a multiple regression model to quantitative analyze the impact of urban built environment on urban short-distance taxi travel. The findings explain the spatial distribution short-distance taxi travel. In the conclusion, some advice are provided on how planners change the spatial settings to discourage short-distance individual motorized travel.

The role of the built environment in explaining educational inequalities in walking and cycling among adults in the Netherlands.

PubMed

van Wijk, Daniël C; Groeniger, Joost Oude; van Lenthe, Frank J; Kamphuis, Carlijn B M

2017-03-31

This study examined whether characteristics of the residential built environment (i.e. population density, level of mixed land use, connectivity, accessibility of facilities, accessibility of green) contributed to educational inequalities in walking and cycling among adults. Data from participants (32-82 years) of the 2011 survey of the Dutch population-based GLOBE study were used (N = 2375). Highest attained educational level (independent variable) and walking for transport, cycling for transport, walking in leisure time and cycling in leisure time (dependent variables) were self-reported in the survey. GIS-systems were used to obtain spatial data on residential built environment characteristics. A four-step mediation-based analysis with log-linear regression models was used to examine to contribution of the residential built environment to educational inequalities in walking and cycling. As compared to the lowest educational group, the highest educational group was more likely to cycle for transport (RR 1.13, 95% CI 1.04-1.23), walk in leisure time (RR 1.12, 95% CI 1.04-1.21), and cycle in leisure time (RR 1.12, 95% CI 1.03-1.22). Objective built environment characteristics were related to these outcomes, but contributed minimally to educational inequalities in walking and cycling. On the other hand, compared to the lowest educational group, the highest educational group was less likely to walk for transport (RR 0.91, 95% CI 0.82-1.01), which could partly be attributed to differences in the built environment. This study found that objective built environment characteristics contributed minimally to educational inequalities in walking and cycling in the Netherlands.

A Rapid Soils Analysis Kit

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-03-01

behavior of moisture content-dry density Proctor curves......................................... 16 Figure 8. Moisture- density data scatter for an... density . Built-in higher order regression equations allow the user to visua- lize complete curves for Proctor density , as-built California Bearing Ratio...requirements involving soil are optimum moisture content (OMC) and maximum dry density (MDD) as determined from a laboratory compaction or Proctor test

Discrimination of Active and Weakly Active Human BACE1 Inhibitors Using Self-Organizing Map and Support Vector Machine.

PubMed

Li, Hang; Wang, Maolin; Gong, Ya-Nan; Yan, Aixia

2016-01-01

β-secretase (BACE1) is an aspartyl protease, which is considered as a novel vital target in Alzheimer`s disease therapy. We collected a data set of 294 BACE1 inhibitors, and built six classification models to discriminate active and weakly active inhibitors using Kohonen's Self-Organizing Map (SOM) method and Support Vector Machine (SVM) method. Each molecular descriptor was calculated using the program ADRIANA.Code. We adopted two different methods: random method and Self-Organizing Map method, for training/test set split. The descriptors were selected by F-score and stepwise linear regression analysis. The best SVM model Model2C has a good prediction performance on test set with prediction accuracy, sensitivity (SE), specificity (SP) and Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC) of 89.02%, 90%, 88%, 0.78, respectively. Model 1A is the best SOM model, whose accuracy and MCC of the test set were 94.57% and 0.98, respectively. The lone pair electronegativity and polarizability related descriptors importantly contributed to bioactivity of BACE1 inhibitor. The Extended-Connectivity Finger-Prints_4 (ECFP_4) analysis found some vitally key substructural features, which could be helpful for further drug design research. The SOM and SVM models built in this study can be obtained from the authors by email or other contacts.

Thermoelastic steam turbine rotor control based on neural network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rzadkowski, Romuald; Dominiczak, Krzysztof; Radulski, Wojciech; Szczepanik, R.

2015-12-01

Considered here are Nonlinear Auto-Regressive neural networks with eXogenous inputs (NARX) as a mathematical model of a steam turbine rotor for controlling steam turbine stress on-line. In order to obtain neural networks that locate critical stress and temperature points in the steam turbine during transient states, an FE rotor model was built. This model was used to train the neural networks on the basis of steam turbine transient operating data. The training included nonlinearity related to steam turbine expansion, heat exchange and rotor material properties during transients. Simultaneous neural networks are algorithms which can be implemented on PLC controllers. This allows for the application neural networks to control steam turbine stress in industrial power plants.

Vegetation placement for summer built surface temperature moderation in an urban microclimate.

PubMed

Millward, Andrew A; Torchia, Melissa; Laursen, Andrew E; Rothman, Lorne D

2014-06-01

Urban vegetation can mitigate increases in summer air temperature by reducing the solar gain received by buildings. To quantify the temperature-moderating influence of city trees and vine-covered buildings, a total of 13 pairs of temperature loggers were installed on the surfaces of eight buildings in downtown Toronto, Canada, for 6 months during the summer of 2008. One logger in each pair was shaded by vegetation while the other measured built surface temperature in full sunlight. We investigated the temperature-moderating benefits of solitary mature trees, clusters of trees, and perennial vines using a linear-mixed model and a multiple regression analysis of degree hour difference. We then assessed the temperature-moderating effect of leaf area, plant size and proximity to building, and plant location relative to solar path. During a period of high solar intensity, we measured an average temperature differential of 11.7 °C, with as many as 10-12 h of sustained cooler built surface temperatures. Vegetation on the west-facing aspect of built structures provided the greatest temperature moderation, with maximum benefit (peak temperature difference) occurring late in the afternoon. Large mature trees growing within 5 m of buildings showed the greatest ability to moderate built surface temperature, with those growing in clusters delivering limited additional benefit compared with isolated trees. Perennial vines proved as effective as trees at moderating rise in built surface temperature to the south and west sides of buildings, providing an attractive alternative to shade trees where soil volume and space are limited.

Vegetation Placement for Summer Built Surface Temperature Moderation in an Urban Microclimate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Millward, Andrew A.; Torchia, Melissa; Laursen, Andrew E.; Rothman, Lorne D.

2014-06-01

Urban vegetation can mitigate increases in summer air temperature by reducing the solar gain received by buildings. To quantify the temperature-moderating influence of city trees and vine-covered buildings, a total of 13 pairs of temperature loggers were installed on the surfaces of eight buildings in downtown Toronto, Canada, for 6 months during the summer of 2008. One logger in each pair was shaded by vegetation while the other measured built surface temperature in full sunlight. We investigated the temperature-moderating benefits of solitary mature trees, clusters of trees, and perennial vines using a linear-mixed model and a multiple regression analysis of degree hour difference. We then assessed the temperature-moderating effect of leaf area, plant size and proximity to building, and plant location relative to solar path. During a period of high solar intensity, we measured an average temperature differential of 11.7 °C, with as many as 10-12 h of sustained cooler built surface temperatures. Vegetation on the west-facing aspect of built structures provided the greatest temperature moderation, with maximum benefit (peak temperature difference) occurring late in the afternoon. Large mature trees growing within 5 m of buildings showed the greatest ability to moderate built surface temperature, with those growing in clusters delivering limited additional benefit compared with isolated trees. Perennial vines proved as effective as trees at moderating rise in built surface temperature to the south and west sides of buildings, providing an attractive alternative to shade trees where soil volume and space are limited.

Implementation of the ANNs ensembles in macro-BIM cost estimates of buildings' floor structural frames

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Juszczyk, Michał

2018-04-01

This paper reports some results of the studies on the use of artificial intelligence tools for the purposes of cost estimation based on building information models. A problem of the cost estimates based on the building information models on a macro level supported by the ensembles of artificial neural networks is concisely discussed. In the course of the research a regression model has been built for the purposes of cost estimation of buildings' floor structural frames, as higher level elements. Building information models are supposed to serve as a repository of data used for the purposes of cost estimation. The core of the model is the ensemble of neural networks. The developed model allows the prediction of cost estimates with satisfactory accuracy.

Comparison of land use regression models for NO2 based on routine and campaign monitoring data from an urban area of Japan.

PubMed

Kashima, Saori; Yorifuji, Takashi; Sawada, Norie; Nakaya, Tomoki; Eboshida, Akira

2018-08-01

Typically, land use regression (LUR) models have been developed using campaign monitoring data rather than routine monitoring data. However, the latter have advantages such as low cost and long-term coverage. Based on the idea that LUR models representing regional differences in air pollution and regional road structures are optimal, the objective of this study was to evaluate the validity of LUR models for nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) based on routine and campaign monitoring data obtained from an urban area. We selected the city of Suita in Osaka (Japan). We built a model based on routine monitoring data obtained from all sites (routine-LUR-All), and a model based on campaign monitoring data (campaign-LUR) within the city. Models based on routine monitoring data obtained from background sites (routine-LUR-BS) and based on data obtained from roadside sites (routine-LUR-RS) were also built. The routine LUR models were based on monitoring networks across two prefectures (i.e., Osaka and Hyogo prefectures). We calculated the predictability of the each model. We then compared the predicted NO 2 concentrations from each model with measured annual average NO 2 concentrations from evaluation sites. The routine-LUR-All and routine-LUR-BS models both predicted NO 2 concentrations well: adjusted R 2 =0.68 and 0.76, respectively, and root mean square error=3.4 and 2.1ppb, respectively. The predictions from the routine-LUR-All model were highly correlated with the measured NO 2 concentrations at evaluation sites. Although the predicted NO 2 concentrations from each model were correlated, the LUR models based on routine networks, and particularly those based on all monitoring sites, provided better visual representations of the local road conditions in the city. The present study demonstrated that LUR models based on routine data could estimate local traffic-related air pollution in an urban area. The importance and usefulness of data from routine monitoring networks should be acknowledged. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Quantitative structure-retention relationship models for the prediction of the reversed-phase HPLC gradient retention based on the heuristic method and support vector machine.

PubMed

Du, Hongying; Wang, Jie; Yao, Xiaojun; Hu, Zhide

2009-01-01

The heuristic method (HM) and support vector machine (SVM) were used to construct quantitative structure-retention relationship models by a series of compounds to predict the gradient retention times of reversed-phase high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) in three different columns. The aims of this investigation were to predict the retention times of multifarious compounds, to find the main properties of the three columns, and to indicate the theory of separation procedures. In our method, we correlated the retention times of many diverse structural analytes in three columns (Symmetry C18, Chromolith, and SG-MIX) with their representative molecular descriptors, calculated from the molecular structures alone. HM was used to select the most important molecular descriptors and build linear regression models. Furthermore, non-linear regression models were built using the SVM method; the performance of the SVM models were better than that of the HM models, and the prediction results were in good agreement with the experimental values. This paper could give some insights into the factors that were likely to govern the gradient retention process of the three investigated HPLC columns, which could theoretically supervise the practical experiment.

Numerical modeling on carbon fiber composite material in Gaussian beam laser based on ANSYS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, Ji-jun; Hou, Su-xia; Xu, Jun; Yang, Wei-jun; Zhao, Yun-fang

2014-02-01

Based on the heat transfer theory and finite element method, the macroscopic ablation model of Gaussian beam laser irradiated surface is built and the value of temperature field and thermal ablation development is calculated and analyzed rationally by using finite element software of ANSYS. Calculation results show that the ablating form of the materials in different irritation is of diversity. The laser irradiated surface is a camber surface rather than a flat surface, which is on the lowest point and owns the highest power density. Research shows that the higher laser power density absorbed by material surface, the faster the irritation surface regressed.

Cost estimators for construction of forest roads in the central Appalachians

Treesearch

Deborah, A. Layton; Chris O. LeDoux; Curt C. Hassler; Curt C. Hassler

1992-01-01

Regression equations were developed for estimating the total cost of road construction in the central Appalachian region. Estimators include methods for predicting total costs for roads constructed using hourly rental methods and roads built on a total-job bid basis. Results show that total-job bid roads cost up to five times as much as roads built than when equipment...

Effects of Buffer Size and Shape on Associations between the Built Environment and Energy Balance

PubMed Central

Berrigan, David; Hart, Jaime E.; Hipp, J. Aaron; Hoehner, Christine M.; Kerr, Jacqueline; Major, Jacqueline M.; Oka, Masayoshi; Laden, Francine

2014-01-01

Uncertainty in the relevant spatial context may drive heterogeneity in findings on the built environment and energy balance. To estimate the effect of this uncertainty, we conducted a sensitivity analysis defining intersection and business densities and counts within different buffer sizes and shapes on associations with self-reported walking and body mass index. Linear regression results indicated that the scale and shape of buffers influenced study results and may partly explain the inconsistent findings in the built environment and energy balance literature. PMID:24607875

Discriminating between adaptive and carcinogenic liver hypertrophy in rat studies using logistic ridge regression analysis of toxicogenomic data: The mode of action and predictive models.

PubMed

Liu, Shujie; Kawamoto, Taisuke; Morita, Osamu; Yoshinari, Kouichi; Honda, Hiroshi

2017-03-01

Chemical exposure often results in liver hypertrophy in animal tests, characterized by increased liver weight, hepatocellular hypertrophy, and/or cell proliferation. While most of these changes are considered adaptive responses, there is concern that they may be associated with carcinogenesis. In this study, we have employed a toxicogenomic approach using a logistic ridge regression model to identify genes responsible for liver hypertrophy and hypertrophic hepatocarcinogenesis and to develop a predictive model for assessing hypertrophy-inducing compounds. Logistic regression models have previously been used in the quantification of epidemiological risk factors. DNA microarray data from the Toxicogenomics Project-Genomics Assisted Toxicity Evaluation System were used to identify hypertrophy-related genes that are expressed differently in hypertrophy induced by carcinogens and non-carcinogens. Data were collected for 134 chemicals (72 non-hypertrophy-inducing chemicals, 27 hypertrophy-inducing non-carcinogenic chemicals, and 15 hypertrophy-inducing carcinogenic compounds). After applying logistic ridge regression analysis, 35 genes for liver hypertrophy (e.g., Acot1 and Abcc3) and 13 genes for hypertrophic hepatocarcinogenesis (e.g., Asns and Gpx2) were selected. The predictive models built using these genes were 94.8% and 82.7% accurate, respectively. Pathway analysis of the genes indicates that, aside from a xenobiotic metabolism-related pathway as an adaptive response for liver hypertrophy, amino acid biosynthesis and oxidative responses appear to be involved in hypertrophic hepatocarcinogenesis. Early detection and toxicogenomic characterization of liver hypertrophy using our models may be useful for predicting carcinogenesis. In addition, the identified genes provide novel insight into discrimination between adverse hypertrophy associated with carcinogenesis and adaptive hypertrophy in risk assessment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Climatic, ecological, and socioeconomic factors associated with West Nile virus incidence in Atlanta, Georgia, U.S.A.

PubMed

Lockaby, Graeme; Noori, Navideh; Morse, Wayde; Zipperer, Wayne; Kalin, Latif; Governo, Robin; Sawant, Rajesh; Ricker, Matthew

2016-12-01

The integrated effects of the many risk factors associated with West Nile virus (WNV) incidence are complex and not well understood. We studied an array of risk factors in and around Atlanta, GA, that have been shown to be linked with WNV in other locations. This array was comprehensive and included climate and meteorological metrics, vegetation characteristics, land use / land cover analyses, and socioeconomic factors. Data on mosquito abundance and WNV mosquito infection rates were obtained for 58 sites and covered 2009-2011, a period following the combined storm water - sewer overflow remediation in that city. Risk factors were compared to mosquito abundance and the WNV vector index (VI) using regression analyses individually and in combination. Lagged climate variables, including soil moisture and temperature, were significantly correlated (positively) with vector index as were forest patch size and percent pine composition of patches (both negatively). Socioeconomic factors that were most highly correlated (positively) with the VI included the proportion of low income households and homes built before 1960 and housing density. The model selected through stepwise regression that related risk factors to the VI included (in the order of decreasing influence) proportion of houses built before 1960, percent of pine in patches, and proportion of low income households. © 2016 The Society for Vector Ecology.

Correlation of sensory bitterness in dairy protein hydrolysates: Comparison of prediction models built using sensory, chromatographic and electronic tongue data.

PubMed

Newman, J; Egan, T; Harbourne, N; O'Riordan, D; Jacquier, J C; O'Sullivan, M

2014-08-01

Sensory evaluation can be problematic for ingredients with a bitter taste during research and development phase of new food products. In this study, 19 dairy protein hydrolysates (DPH) were analysed by an electronic tongue and their physicochemical characteristics, the data obtained from these methods were correlated with their bitterness intensity as scored by a trained sensory panel and each model was also assessed by its predictive capabilities. The physiochemical characteristics of the DPHs investigated were degree of hydrolysis (DH%), and data relating to peptide size and relative hydrophobicity from size exclusion chromatography (SEC) and reverse phase (RP) HPLC. Partial least square regression (PLS) was used to construct the prediction models. All PLS regressions had good correlations (0.78 to 0.93) with the strongest being the combination of data obtained from SEC and RP HPLC. However, the PLS with the strongest predictive power was based on the e-tongue which had the PLS regression with the lowest root mean predicted residual error sum of squares (PRESS) in the study. The results show that the PLS models constructed with the e-tongue and the combination of SEC and RP-HPLC has potential to be used for prediction of bitterness and thus reducing the reliance on sensory analysis in DPHs for future food research. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Disability and the Built Environment: An Investigation of Community and Neighborhood Land Uses and Participation for Physically Impaired Adults

PubMed Central

Botticello, Amanda L.; Rohrbach, Tanya; Cobbold, Nicolette

2014-01-01

Purpose There is a need for empirical support of the association between the built environment and disability-related outcomes. This study explores the associations between community and neighborhood land uses and community participation among adults with acquired physical disability. Methods Cross-sectional data from 508 community-living, chronically disabled adults in New Jersey were obtained from among participants in national Spinal Cord Injury Model Systems database. Participants’ residential addresses were geocoded to link individual survey data with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) data on land use and destinations. The influence of residential density, land use mix, destination counts, and open space on four domains of participation were modeled at two geographic scales—the neighborhood (i.e., half mile buffer) and community (i.e., five mile) using multivariate logistic regression. All analyses were adjusted for demographic and impairment-related differences. Results Living in communities with greater land use mix and more destinations was associated with a decreased likelihood of reporting optimum social and physical activity. Conversely, living in neighborhoods with large portions of open space was positively associated with the likelihood of reporting full physical, occupational, and social participation. Conclusions These findings suggest that the overall living conditions of the built environment may be relevant to social inclusion for persons with physical disabilities. PMID:24935467

The spatial clustering of obesity: does the built environment matter?

PubMed

Huang, R; Moudon, A V; Cook, A J; Drewnowski, A

2015-12-01

Obesity rates in the USA show distinct geographical patterns. The present study used spatial cluster detection methods and individual-level data to locate obesity clusters and to analyse them in relation to the neighbourhood built environment. The 2008-2009 Seattle Obesity Study provided data on the self-reported height, weight, and sociodemographic characteristics of 1602 King County adults. Home addresses were geocoded. Clusters of high or low body mass index were identified using Anselin's Local Moran's I and a spatial scan statistic with regression models that searched for unmeasured neighbourhood-level factors from residuals, adjusting for measured individual-level covariates. Spatially continuous values of objectively measured features of the local neighbourhood built environment (SmartMaps) were constructed for seven variables obtained from tax rolls and commercial databases. Both the Local Moran's I and a spatial scan statistic identified similar spatial concentrations of obesity. High and low obesity clusters were attenuated after adjusting for age, gender, race, education and income, and they disappeared once neighbourhood residential property values and residential density were included in the model. Using individual-level data to detect obesity clusters with two cluster detection methods, the present study showed that the spatial concentration of obesity was wholly explained by neighbourhood composition and socioeconomic characteristics. These characteristics may serve to more precisely locate obesity prevention and intervention programmes. © 2014 The British Dietetic Association Ltd.

Social vulnerability and the natural and built environment: a model of flood casualties in Texas.

PubMed

Zahran, Sammy; Brody, Samuel D; Peacock, Walter Gillis; Vedlitz, Arnold; Grover, Himanshu

2008-12-01

Studies on the impacts of hurricanes, tropical storms, and tornados indicate that poor communities of colour suffer disproportionately in human death and injury.(2) Few quantitative studies have been conducted on the degree to which flood events affect socially vulnerable populations. We address this research void by analysing 832 countywide flood events in Texas from 1997-2001. Specifically, we examine whether geographic localities characterised by high percentages of socially vulnerable populations experience significantly more casualties due to flood events, adjusting for characteristics of the natural and built environment. Zero-inflated negative binomial regression models indicate that the odds of a flood casualty increase with the level of precipitation on the day of a flood event, flood duration, property damage caused by the flood, population density, and the presence of socially vulnerable populations. Odds decrease with the number of dams, the level of precipitation on the day before a recorded flood event, and the extent to which localities have enacted flood mitigation strategies. The study concludes with comments on hazard-resilient communities and protection of casualty-prone populations.

Differentiation of orbital lymphoma and idiopathic orbital inflammatory pseudotumor: combined diagnostic value of conventional MRI and histogram analysis of ADC maps.

PubMed

Ren, Jiliang; Yuan, Ying; Wu, Yingwei; Tao, Xiaofeng

2018-05-02

The overlap of morphological feature and mean ADC value restricted clinical application of MRI in the differential diagnosis of orbital lymphoma and idiopathic orbital inflammatory pseudotumor (IOIP). In this paper, we aimed to retrospectively evaluate the combined diagnostic value of conventional magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and whole-tumor histogram analysis of apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) maps in the differentiation of the two lesions. In total, 18 patients with orbital lymphoma and 22 patients with IOIP were included, who underwent both conventional MRI and diffusion weighted imaging before treatment. Conventional MRI features and histogram parameters derived from ADC maps, including mean ADC (ADC mean ), median ADC (ADC median ), skewness, kurtosis, 10th, 25th, 75th and 90th percentiles of ADC (ADC 10 , ADC 25 , ADC 75 , ADC 90 ) were evaluated and compared between orbital lymphoma and IOIP. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to identify the most valuable variables for discriminating. Differential model was built upon the selected variables and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was also performed to determine the differential ability of the model. Multivariate logistic regression showed ADC 10 (P = 0.023) and involvement of orbit preseptal space (P = 0.029) were the most promising indexes in the discrimination of orbital lymphoma and IOIP. The logistic model defined by ADC 10 and involvement of orbit preseptal space was built, which achieved an AUC of 0.939, with sensitivity of 77.30% and specificity of 94.40%. Conventional MRI feature of involvement of orbit preseptal space and ADC histogram parameter of ADC 10 are valuable in differential diagnosis of orbital lymphoma and IOIP.

The role of recognition and interest in physics identity development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lock, Robynne

2016-03-01

While the number of students earning bachelor's degrees in physics has increased in recent years, this number has only recently surpassed the peak value of the 1960s. Additionally, the percentage of women earning bachelor's degrees in physics has stagnated for the past 10 years and may even be declining. We use a physics identity framework consisting of three dimensions to understand how students make their initial career decisions at the end of high school and the beginning of college. The three dimensions consist of recognition (perception that teachers, parents, and peers see the student as a ``physics person''), interest (desire to learn more about physics), and performance/competence (perception of abilities to complete physics related tasks and to understand physics). Using data from the Sustainability and Gender in Engineering survey administered to a nationally representative sample of college students, we built a regression model to determine which identity dimensions have the largest effect on physics career choice and a structural equation model to understand how the identity dimensions are related. Additionally, we used regression models to identify teaching strategies that predict each identity dimension.

Building a Multivariable Linear Regression Model of On-road Traffic for Creation of High Resolution Emission Inventories

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Powell, James Eckhardt

Emissions inventories are an important tool, often built by governments, and used to manage emissions. To build an inventory of urban CO2 emissions and other fossil fuel combustion products in the urban atmosphere, an inventory of on-road traffic is required. In particular, a high resolution inventory is necessary to capture the local characteristics of transport emissions. These emissions vary widely due to the local nature of the fleet, fuel, and roads. Here we show a new model of ADT for the Portland, OR metropolitan region. The backbone is traffic counter recordings made by the Portland Bureau of Transportation at 7,767 sites over 21 years (1986-2006), augmented with PORTAL (The Portland Regional Transportation Archive Listing) freeway traffic count data. We constructed a regression model to fill in traffic network gaps using GIS data such as road class and population density. An EPA-supplied emissions factor was used to estimate transportation CO2 emissions, which is compared to several other estimates for the city's CO2 footprint.

Big Data Toolsets to Pharmacometrics: Application of Machine Learning for Time-to-Event Analysis.

PubMed

Gong, Xiajing; Hu, Meng; Zhao, Liang

2018-05-01

Additional value can be potentially created by applying big data tools to address pharmacometric problems. The performances of machine learning (ML) methods and the Cox regression model were evaluated based on simulated time-to-event data synthesized under various preset scenarios, i.e., with linear vs. nonlinear and dependent vs. independent predictors in the proportional hazard function, or with high-dimensional data featured by a large number of predictor variables. Our results showed that ML-based methods outperformed the Cox model in prediction performance as assessed by concordance index and in identifying the preset influential variables for high-dimensional data. The prediction performances of ML-based methods are also less sensitive to data size and censoring rates than the Cox regression model. In conclusion, ML-based methods provide a powerful tool for time-to-event analysis, with a built-in capacity for high-dimensional data and better performance when the predictor variables assume nonlinear relationships in the hazard function. © 2018 The Authors. Clinical and Translational Science published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.

Sentinel node status prediction by four statistical models: results from a large bi-institutional series (n = 1132).

PubMed

Mocellin, Simone; Thompson, John F; Pasquali, Sandro; Montesco, Maria C; Pilati, Pierluigi; Nitti, Donato; Saw, Robyn P; Scolyer, Richard A; Stretch, Jonathan R; Rossi, Carlo R

2009-12-01

To improve selection for sentinel node (SN) biopsy (SNB) in patients with cutaneous melanoma using statistical models predicting SN status. About 80% of patients currently undergoing SNB are node negative. In the absence of conclusive evidence of a SNBassociated survival benefit, these patients may be over-treated. Here, we tested the efficiency of 4 different models in predicting SN status. The clinicopathologic data (age, gender, tumor thickness, Clark level, regression, ulceration, histologic subtype, and mitotic index) of 1132 melanoma patients who had undergone SNB at institutions in Italy and Australia were analyzed. Logistic regression, classification tree, random forest, and support vector machine models were fitted to the data. The predictive models were built with the aim of maximizing the negative predictive value (NPV) and reducing the rate of SNB procedures though minimizing the error rate. After cross-validation logistic regression, classification tree, random forest, and support vector machine predictive models obtained clinically relevant NPV (93.6%, 94.0%, 97.1%, and 93.0%, respectively), SNB reduction (27.5%, 29.8%, 18.2%, and 30.1%, respectively), and error rates (1.8%, 1.8%, 0.5%, and 2.1%, respectively). Using commonly available clinicopathologic variables, predictive models can preoperatively identify a proportion of patients ( approximately 25%) who might be spared SNB, with an acceptable (1%-2%) error. If validated in large prospective series, these models might be implemented in the clinical setting for improved patient selection, which ultimately would lead to better quality of life for patients and optimization of resource allocation for the health care system.

Development of land-use regression models for fine particles and black carbon in peri-urban South India.

PubMed

Sanchez, Margaux; Ambros, Albert; Milà, Carles; Salmon, Maëlle; Balakrishnan, Kalpana; Sambandam, Sankar; Sreekanth, V; Marshall, Julian D; Tonne, Cathryn

2018-09-01

Land-use regression (LUR) has been used to model local spatial variability of particulate matter in cities of high-income countries. Performance of LUR models is unknown in less urbanized areas of low-/middle-income countries (LMICs) experiencing complex sources of ambient air pollution and which typically have limited land use data. To address these concerns, we developed LUR models using satellite imagery (e.g., vegetation, urbanicity) and manually-collected data from a comprehensive built-environment survey (e.g., roads, industries, non-residential places) for a peri-urban area outside Hyderabad, India. As part of the CHAI (Cardiovascular Health effects of Air pollution in Telangana, India) project, concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) and black carbon were measured over two seasons at 23 sites. Annual mean (sd) was 34.1 (3.2) μg/m 3 for PM 2.5 and 2.7 (0.5) μg/m 3 for black carbon. The LUR model for annual black carbon explained 78% of total variance and included both local-scale (energy supply places) and regional-scale (roads) predictors. Explained variance was 58% for annual PM 2.5 and the included predictors were only regional (urbanicity, vegetation). During leave-one-out cross-validation and cross-holdout validation, only the black carbon model showed consistent performance. The LUR model for black carbon explained a substantial proportion of the spatial variability that could not be captured by simpler interpolation technique (ordinary kriging). This is the first study to develop a LUR model for ambient concentrations of PM 2.5 and black carbon in a non-urban area of LMICs, supporting the applicability of the LUR approach in such settings. Our results provide insights on the added value of manually-collected built-environment data to improve the performance of LUR models in settings with limited data availability. For both pollutants, LUR models predicted substantial within-village variability, an important feature for future epidemiological studies. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Outbreaks of Tularemia in a Boreal Forest Region Depends on Mosquito Prevalence

PubMed Central

Rydén, Patrik; Björk, Rafael; Schäfer, Martina L.; Lundström, Jan O.; Petersén, Bodil; Lindblom, Anders; Forsman, Mats; Sjöstedt, Anders

2012-01-01

Background. We aimed to evaluate the potential association of mosquito prevalence in a boreal forest area with transmission of the bacterial disease tularemia to humans, and model the annual variation of disease using local weather data. Methods. A prediction model for mosquito abundance was built using weather and mosquito catch data. Then a negative binomial regression model based on the predicted mosquito abundance and local weather data was built to predict annual numbers of humans contracting tularemia in Dalarna County, Sweden. Results. Three hundred seventy humans were diagnosed with tularemia between 1981 and 2007, 94% of them during 7 summer outbreaks. Disease transmission was concentrated along rivers in the area. The predicted mosquito abundance was correlated (0.41, P < .05) with the annual number of human cases. The predicted mosquito peaks consistently preceded the median onset time of human tularemia (temporal correlation, 0.76; P < .05). Our final predictive model included 5 environmental variables and identified 6 of the 7 outbreaks. Conclusions. This work suggests that a high prevalence of mosquitoes in late summer is a prerequisite for outbreaks of tularemia in a tularemia-endemic boreal forest area of Sweden and that environmental variables can be used as risk indicators. PMID:22124130

Spatial variability of excess mortality during prolonged dust events in a high-density city: a time-stratified spatial regression approach.

PubMed

Wong, Man Sing; Ho, Hung Chak; Yang, Lin; Shi, Wenzhong; Yang, Jinxin; Chan, Ta-Chien

2017-07-24

Dust events have long been recognized to be associated with a higher mortality risk. However, no study has investigated how prolonged dust events affect the spatial variability of mortality across districts in a downwind city. In this study, we applied a spatial regression approach to estimate the district-level mortality during two extreme dust events in Hong Kong. We compared spatial and non-spatial models to evaluate the ability of each regression to estimate mortality. We also compared prolonged dust events with non-dust events to determine the influences of community factors on mortality across the city. The density of a built environment (estimated by the sky view factor) had positive association with excess mortality in each district, while socioeconomic deprivation contributed by lower income and lower education induced higher mortality impact in each territory planning unit during a prolonged dust event. Based on the model comparison, spatial error modelling with the 1st order of queen contiguity consistently outperformed other models. The high-risk areas with higher increase in mortality were located in an urban high-density environment with higher socioeconomic deprivation. Our model design shows the ability to predict spatial variability of mortality risk during an extreme weather event that is not able to be estimated based on traditional time-series analysis or ecological studies. Our spatial protocol can be used for public health surveillance, sustainable planning and disaster preparation when relevant data are available.

Effects of buffer size and shape on associations between the built environment and energy balance.

PubMed

James, Peter; Berrigan, David; Hart, Jaime E; Hipp, J Aaron; Hoehner, Christine M; Kerr, Jacqueline; Major, Jacqueline M; Oka, Masayoshi; Laden, Francine

2014-05-01

Uncertainty in the relevant spatial context may drive heterogeneity in findings on the built environment and energy balance. To estimate the effect of this uncertainty, we conducted a sensitivity analysis defining intersection and business densities and counts within different buffer sizes and shapes on associations with self-reported walking and body mass index. Linear regression results indicated that the scale and shape of buffers influenced study results and may partly explain the inconsistent findings in the built environment and energy balance literature. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Objective and subjective measures of neighborhood environment (NE): relationships with transportation physical activity among older persons.

PubMed

Nyunt, Ma Shwe Zin; Shuvo, Faysal Kabir; Eng, Jia Yen; Yap, Keng Bee; Scherer, Samuel; Hee, Li Min; Chan, Siew Pang; Ng, Tze Pin

2015-09-15

This study examined the associations of subjective and objective measures of the neighbourhood environment with the transportation physical activity of community-dwelling older persons in Singapore. A modified version of the Neighborhood Environment Walkability Scale (NEWS) and Geographical Information System (GIS) measures of the built environment characteristics were related to the frequency of walking for transportation purpose in a study sample of older persons living in high-density apartment blocks within a public housing estate in Singapore. Relevant measured variables to assess the complex relationships among built environment measures and transportation physical activity were examined using structural equation modelling and multiple regression analyses. The subjective measures of residential density, street connectivity, land use mix diversity and aesthetic environment and the objective GIS measure of Accessibility Index have positively significant independent associations with transportation physical activity, after adjusting for demographics, socio-economic and health status. Subjective and objective measures are non-overlapping measures complementing each other in providing information on built environment characteristics. For elderly living in a high-density urban neighborhood, well connected street, diversity of land use mix, close proximity to amenities and facilities, and aesthetic environment were associated with higher frequency of walking for transportation purposes.

Mobile Phone-Based Unobtrusive Ecological Momentary Assessment of Day-to-Day Mood: An Explorative Study.

PubMed

Asselbergs, Joost; Ruwaard, Jeroen; Ejdys, Michal; Schrader, Niels; Sijbrandij, Marit; Riper, Heleen

2016-03-29

Ecological momentary assessment (EMA) is a useful method to tap the dynamics of psychological and behavioral phenomena in real-world contexts. However, the response burden of (self-report) EMA limits its clinical utility. The aim was to explore mobile phone-based unobtrusive EMA, in which mobile phone usage logs are considered as proxy measures of clinically relevant user states and contexts. This was an uncontrolled explorative pilot study. Our study consisted of 6 weeks of EMA/unobtrusive EMA data collection in a Dutch student population (N=33), followed by a regression modeling analysis. Participants self-monitored their mood on their mobile phone (EMA) with a one-dimensional mood measure (1 to 10) and a two-dimensional circumplex measure (arousal/valence, -2 to 2). Meanwhile, with participants' consent, a mobile phone app unobtrusively collected (meta) data from six smartphone sensor logs (unobtrusive EMA: calls/short message service (SMS) text messages, screen time, application usage, accelerometer, and phone camera events). Through forward stepwise regression (FSR), we built personalized regression models from the unobtrusive EMA variables to predict day-to-day variation in EMA mood ratings. The predictive performance of these models (ie, cross-validated mean squared error and percentage of correct predictions) was compared to naive benchmark regression models (the mean model and a lag-2 history model). A total of 27 participants (81%) provided a mean 35.5 days (SD 3.8) of valid EMA/unobtrusive EMA data. The FSR models accurately predicted 55% to 76% of EMA mood scores. However, the predictive performance of these models was significantly inferior to that of naive benchmark models. Mobile phone-based unobtrusive EMA is a technically feasible and potentially powerful EMA variant. The method is young and positive findings may not replicate. At present, we do not recommend the application of FSR-based mood prediction in real-world clinical settings. Further psychometric studies and more advanced data mining techniques are needed to unlock unobtrusive EMA's true potential.

Applying quantitative adiposity feature analysis models to predict benefit of bevacizumab-based chemotherapy in ovarian cancer patients

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yunzhi; Qiu, Yuchen; Thai, Theresa; More, Kathleen; Ding, Kai; Liu, Hong; Zheng, Bin

2016-03-01

How to rationally identify epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) patients who will benefit from bevacizumab or other antiangiogenic therapies is a critical issue in EOC treatments. The motivation of this study is to quantitatively measure adiposity features from CT images and investigate the feasibility of predicting potential benefit of EOC patients with or without receiving bevacizumab-based chemotherapy treatment using multivariate statistical models built based on quantitative adiposity image features. A dataset involving CT images from 59 advanced EOC patients were included. Among them, 32 patients received maintenance bevacizumab after primary chemotherapy and the remaining 27 patients did not. We developed a computer-aided detection (CAD) scheme to automatically segment subcutaneous fat areas (VFA) and visceral fat areas (SFA) and then extracted 7 adiposity-related quantitative features. Three multivariate data analysis models (linear regression, logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards regression) were performed respectively to investigate the potential association between the model-generated prediction results and the patients' progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). The results show that using all 3 statistical models, a statistically significant association was detected between the model-generated results and both of the two clinical outcomes in the group of patients receiving maintenance bevacizumab (p<0.01), while there were no significant association for both PFS and OS in the group of patients without receiving maintenance bevacizumab. Therefore, this study demonstrated the feasibility of using quantitative adiposity-related CT image features based statistical prediction models to generate a new clinical marker and predict the clinical outcome of EOC patients receiving maintenance bevacizumab-based chemotherapy.

Female married illiteracy as the most important continual determinant of total fertility rate among districts of Empowered Action Group States of India: Evidence from Annual Health Survey 2011-12.

PubMed

Kumar, Rajesh; Dogra, Vishal; Rani, Khushbu; Sahu, Kanti

2017-01-01

District level determinants of total fertility rate in Empowered Action Group states of India can help in ongoing population stabilization programs in India. Present study intends to assess the role of district level determinants in predicting total fertility rate among districts of the Empowered Action Group states of India. Data from Annual Health Survey (2011-12) was analysed using STATA and R software packages. Multiple linear regression models were built and evaluated using Akaike Information Criterion. For further understanding, recursive partitioning was used to prepare a regression tree. Female married illiteracy positively associated with total fertility rate and explained more than half (53%) of variance. Under multiple linear regression model, married illiteracy, infant mortality rate, Ante natal care registration, household size, median age of live birth and sex ratio explained 70% of total variance in total fertility rate. In regression tree, female married illiteracy was the root node and splits at 42% determined TFR <= 2.7. The next left side branch was again married illiteracy with splits at 23% to determine TFR <= 2.1. We conclude that female married illiteracy is one of the most important determinants explaining total fertility rate among the districts of an Empowered Action Group states. Focus on female literacy is required to stabilize the population growth in long run.

The Uncertain Geographic Context Problem in the Analysis of the Relationships between Obesity and the Built Environment in Guangzhou

PubMed Central

Zhao, Pengxiang; Zhou, Suhong

2018-01-01

Traditionally, static units of analysis such as administrative units are used when studying obesity. However, using these fixed contextual units ignores environmental influences experienced by individuals in areas beyond their residential neighborhood and may render the results unreliable. This problem has been articulated as the uncertain geographic context problem (UGCoP). This study investigates the UGCoP through exploring the relationships between the built environment and obesity based on individuals’ activity space. First, a survey was conducted to collect individuals’ daily activity and weight information in Guangzhou in January 2016. Then, the data were used to calculate and compare the values of several built environment variables based on seven activity space delineations, including home buffers, workplace buffers (WPB), fitness place buffers (FPB), the standard deviational ellipse at two standard deviations (SDE2), the weighted standard deviational ellipse at two standard deviations (WSDE2), the minimum convex polygon (MCP), and road network buffers (RNB). Lastly, we conducted comparative analysis and regression analysis based on different activity space measures. The results indicate that significant differences exist between variables obtained with different activity space delineations. Further, regression analyses show that the activity space delineations used in the analysis have a significant influence on the results concerning the relationships between the built environment and obesity. The study sheds light on the UGCoP in analyzing the relationships between obesity and the built environment. PMID:29439392

The Relationship between Perceived Health and Physical Activity Indoors, Outdoors in Built Environments, and Outdoors in Nature

PubMed Central

Pasanen, Tytti P; Tyrväinen, Liisa; Korpela, Kalevi M

2014-01-01

Background: A body of evidence shows that both physical activity and exposure to nature are connected to improved general and mental health. Experimental studies have consistently found short term positive effects of physical activity in nature compared with built environments. This study explores whether these benefits are also evident in everyday life, perceived over repeated contact with nature. The topic is important from the perspectives of city planning, individual well-being, and public health. Methods: National survey data (n = 2,070) from Finland was analysed using structural regression analyses. Perceived general health, emotional well-being, and sleep quality were regressed on the weekly frequency of physical activity indoors, outdoors in built environments, and in nature. Socioeconomic factors and other plausible confounders were controlled for. Results: Emotional well-being showed the most consistent positive connection to physical activity in nature, whereas general health was positively associated with physical activity in both built and natural outdoor settings. Better sleep quality was weakly connected to frequent physical activity in nature, but the connection was outweighed by other factors. Conclusion: The results indicate that nature provides an added value to the known benefits of physical activity. Repeated exercise in nature is, in particular, connected to better emotional well-being. PMID:25044598

Use of generalized ordered logistic regression for the analysis of multidrug resistance data.

PubMed

Agga, Getahun E; Scott, H Morgan

2015-10-01

Statistical analysis of antimicrobial resistance data largely focuses on individual antimicrobial's binary outcome (susceptible or resistant). However, bacteria are becoming increasingly multidrug resistant (MDR). Statistical analysis of MDR data is mostly descriptive often with tabular or graphical presentations. Here we report the applicability of generalized ordinal logistic regression model for the analysis of MDR data. A total of 1,152 Escherichia coli, isolated from the feces of weaned pigs experimentally supplemented with chlortetracycline (CTC) and copper, were tested for susceptibilities against 15 antimicrobials and were binary classified into resistant or susceptible. The 15 antimicrobial agents tested were grouped into eight different antimicrobial classes. We defined MDR as the number of antimicrobial classes to which E. coli isolates were resistant ranging from 0 to 8. Proportionality of the odds assumption of the ordinal logistic regression model was violated only for the effect of treatment period (pre-treatment, during-treatment and post-treatment); but not for the effect of CTC or copper supplementation. Subsequently, a partially constrained generalized ordinal logistic model was built that allows for the effect of treatment period to vary while constraining the effects of treatment (CTC and copper supplementation) to be constant across the levels of MDR classes. Copper (Proportional Odds Ratio [Prop OR]=1.03; 95% CI=0.73-1.47) and CTC (Prop OR=1.1; 95% CI=0.78-1.56) supplementation were not significantly associated with the level of MDR adjusted for the effect of treatment period. MDR generally declined over the trial period. In conclusion, generalized ordered logistic regression can be used for the analysis of ordinal data such as MDR data when the proportionality assumptions for ordered logistic regression are violated. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Estimation of water quality by UV/Vis spectrometry in the framework of treated wastewater reuse.

PubMed

Carré, Erwan; Pérot, Jean; Jauzein, Vincent; Lin, Liming; Lopez-Ferber, Miguel

2017-07-01

The aim of this study is to investigate the potential of ultraviolet/visible (UV/Vis) spectrometry as a complementary method for routine monitoring of reclaimed water production. Robustness of the models and compliance of their sensitivity with current quality limits are investigated. The following indicators are studied: total suspended solids (TSS), turbidity, chemical oxygen demand (COD) and nitrate. Partial least squares regression (PLSR) is used to find linear correlations between absorbances and indicators of interest. Artificial samples are made by simulating a sludge leak on the wastewater treatment plant and added to the original dataset, then divided into calibration and prediction datasets. The models are built on the calibration set, and then tested on the prediction set. The best models are developed with: PLSR for COD (R pred 2 = 0.80), TSS (R pred 2 = 0.86) and turbidity (R pred 2 = 0.96), and with a simple linear regression from absorbance at 208 nm (R pred 2 = 0.95) for nitrate concentration. The input of artificial data significantly enhances the robustness of the models. The sensitivity of the UV/Vis spectrometry monitoring system developed is compatible with quality requirements of reclaimed water production processes.

Could strength of exposure to the residential neighbourhood modify associations between walkability and physical activity?

PubMed

Ivory, Vivienne C; Blakely, Tony; Pearce, Jamie; Witten, Karen; Bagheri, Nasser; Badland, Hannah; Schofield, Grant

2015-12-01

The importance of neighbourhoods for health and wellbeing may vary according to an individual's reliance on their local resources, but this assertion is rarely tested. We investigate whether greater neighbourhood 'exposure' through reliance on or engagement with the residential setting magnifies neighbourhood-health associations. Three built environment characteristics (destination density, streetscape (attractiveness of built environment) and street connectivity) and two physical activity components (weekday and weekend accelerometer counts) were measured for 2033 residents living in 48 neighbourhoods within four New Zealand cities in 2009-2010, giving six different built environment-physical activity associations. Interactions for each built environment-physical activity association with four individual-level characteristics (acting as proxies for exposure: gender, working status, car access, and income) were assessed with multi-level regression models; a total of 24 'tests'. Of the 12 weekday built environment-physical activity tests, 5 interaction terms were significant (p < 0.05) in the expected direction (e.g. stronger streetscape-physical activity among those with restricted car access). For weekend tests, one association was statistically significant. No significant tests were contradictory. Pooled across the 12 weekday physical activity 'tests', a 1 standard deviation increase in the walkability of the built environment was associated with an overall 3.8% (95% CI: 3.6%-4.1%) greater increase in weekday physical activity across all the types of people we hypothesised to spend more time in their residential neighbourhood, and for weekend physical activity it was 4.2% (95% CI 3.9%-4.5%). Using multiple evaluation methods, interactions were in line with our hypothesis, with a stronger association seen for proxy exposure indicators (for example, restricted car access). Added to the wider evidence base, our study strengthens causal evidence of an effect of the built environment on physical activity, and highlights that health gains from improvements of the residential neighbourhood may be greater for some people. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Subregional Nowcasts of Seasonal Influenza Using Search Trends.

PubMed

Kandula, Sasikiran; Hsu, Daniel; Shaman, Jeffrey

2017-11-06

Limiting the adverse effects of seasonal influenza outbreaks at state or city level requires close monitoring of localized outbreaks and reliable forecasts of their progression. Whereas forecasting models for influenza or influenza-like illness (ILI) are becoming increasingly available, their applicability to localized outbreaks is limited by the nonavailability of real-time observations of the current outbreak state at local scales. Surveillance data collected by various health departments are widely accepted as the reference standard for estimating the state of outbreaks, and in the absence of surveillance data, nowcast proxies built using Web-based activities such as search engine queries, tweets, and access of health-related webpages can be useful. Nowcast estimates of state and municipal ILI were previously published by Google Flu Trends (GFT); however, validations of these estimates were seldom reported. The aim of this study was to develop and validate models to nowcast ILI at subregional geographic scales. We built nowcast models based on autoregressive (autoregressive integrated moving average; ARIMA) and supervised regression methods (Random forests) at the US state level using regional weighted ILI and Web-based search activity derived from Google's Extended Trends application programming interface. We validated the performance of these methods using actual surveillance data for the 50 states across six seasons. We also built state-level nowcast models using state-level estimates of ILI and compared the accuracy of these estimates with the estimates of the regional models extrapolated to the state level and with the nowcast estimates published by GFT. Models built using regional ILI extrapolated to state level had a median correlation of 0.84 (interquartile range: 0.74-0.91) and a median root mean square error (RMSE) of 1.01 (IQR: 0.74-1.50), with noticeable variability across seasons and by state population size. Model forms that hypothesize the availability of timely state-level surveillance data show significantly lower errors of 0.83 (0.55-0.23). Compared with GFT, the latter model forms have lower errors but also lower correlation. These results suggest that the proposed methods may be an alternative to the discontinued GFT and that further improvements in the quality of subregional nowcasts may require increased access to more finely resolved surveillance data. ©Sasikiran Kandula, Daniel Hsu, Jeffrey Shaman. Originally published in the Journal of Medical Internet Research (http://www.jmir.org), 06.11.2017.

GTM-Based QSAR Models and Their Applicability Domains.

PubMed

Gaspar, H A; Baskin, I I; Marcou, G; Horvath, D; Varnek, A

2015-06-01

In this paper we demonstrate that Generative Topographic Mapping (GTM), a machine learning method traditionally used for data visualisation, can be efficiently applied to QSAR modelling using probability distribution functions (PDF) computed in the latent 2-dimensional space. Several different scenarios of the activity assessment were considered: (i) the "activity landscape" approach based on direct use of PDF, (ii) QSAR models involving GTM-generated on descriptors derived from PDF, and, (iii) the k-Nearest Neighbours approach in 2D latent space. Benchmarking calculations were performed on five different datasets: stability constants of metal cations Ca(2+) , Gd(3+) and Lu(3+) complexes with organic ligands in water, aqueous solubility and activity of thrombin inhibitors. It has been shown that the performance of GTM-based regression models is similar to that obtained with some popular machine-learning methods (random forest, k-NN, M5P regression tree and PLS) and ISIDA fragment descriptors. By comparing GTM activity landscapes built both on predicted and experimental activities, we may visually assess the model's performance and identify the areas in the chemical space corresponding to reliable predictions. The applicability domain used in this work is based on data likelihood. Its application has significantly improved the model performances for 4 out of 5 datasets. © 2015 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

The relative roles of environment, history and local dispersal in controlling the distributions of common tree and shrub species in a tropical forest landscape, Panama

USGS Publications Warehouse

Svenning, J.-C.; Engelbrecht, B.M.J.; Kinner, D.A.; Kursar, T.A.; Stallard, R.F.; Wright, S.J.

2006-01-01

We used regression models and information-theoretic model selection to assess the relative importance of environment, local dispersal and historical contingency as controls of the distributions of 26 common plant species in tropical forest on Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama. We censused eighty-eight 0.09-ha plots scattered across the landscape. Environmental control, local dispersal and historical contingency were represented by environmental variables (soil moisture, slope, soil type, distance to shore, old-forest presence), a spatial autoregressive parameter (??), and four spatial trend variables, respectively. We built regression models, representing all combinations of the three hypotheses, for each species. The probability that the best model included the environmental variables, spatial trend variables and ?? averaged 33%, 64% and 50% across the study species, respectively. The environmental variables, spatial trend variables, ??, and a simple intercept model received the strongest support for 4, 15, 5 and 2 species, respectively. Comparing the model results to information on species traits showed that species with strong spatial trends produced few and heavy diaspores, while species with strong soil moisture relationships were particularly drought-sensitive. In conclusion, history and local dispersal appeared to be the dominant controls of the distributions of common plant species on BCI. Copyright ?? 2006 Cambridge University Press.

Correlation and prediction of dynamic human isolated joint strength from lean body mass

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pandya, Abhilash K.; Hasson, Scott M.; Aldridge, Ann M.; Maida, James C.; Woolford, Barbara J.

1992-01-01

A relationship between a person's lean body mass and the amount of maximum torque that can be produced with each isolated joint of the upper extremity was investigated. The maximum dynamic isolated joint torque (upper extremity) on 14 subjects was collected using a dynamometer multi-joint testing unit. These data were reduced to a table of coefficients of second degree polynomials, computed using a least squares regression method. All the coefficients were then organized into look-up tables, a compact and convenient storage/retrieval mechanism for the data set. Data from each joint, direction and velocity, were normalized with respect to that joint's average and merged into files (one for each curve for a particular joint). Regression was performed on each one of these files to derive a table of normalized population curve coefficients for each joint axis, direction, and velocity. In addition, a regression table which included all upper extremity joints was built which related average torque to lean body mass for an individual. These two tables are the basis of the regression model which allows the prediction of dynamic isolated joint torques from an individual's lean body mass.

Discriminating between adaptive and carcinogenic liver hypertrophy in rat studies using logistic ridge regression analysis of toxicogenomic data: The mode of action and predictive models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Shujie; Kawamoto, Taisuke; Morita, Osamu

Chemical exposure often results in liver hypertrophy in animal tests, characterized by increased liver weight, hepatocellular hypertrophy, and/or cell proliferation. While most of these changes are considered adaptive responses, there is concern that they may be associated with carcinogenesis. In this study, we have employed a toxicogenomic approach using a logistic ridge regression model to identify genes responsible for liver hypertrophy and hypertrophic hepatocarcinogenesis and to develop a predictive model for assessing hypertrophy-inducing compounds. Logistic regression models have previously been used in the quantification of epidemiological risk factors. DNA microarray data from the Toxicogenomics Project-Genomics Assisted Toxicity Evaluation System weremore » used to identify hypertrophy-related genes that are expressed differently in hypertrophy induced by carcinogens and non-carcinogens. Data were collected for 134 chemicals (72 non-hypertrophy-inducing chemicals, 27 hypertrophy-inducing non-carcinogenic chemicals, and 15 hypertrophy-inducing carcinogenic compounds). After applying logistic ridge regression analysis, 35 genes for liver hypertrophy (e.g., Acot1 and Abcc3) and 13 genes for hypertrophic hepatocarcinogenesis (e.g., Asns and Gpx2) were selected. The predictive models built using these genes were 94.8% and 82.7% accurate, respectively. Pathway analysis of the genes indicates that, aside from a xenobiotic metabolism-related pathway as an adaptive response for liver hypertrophy, amino acid biosynthesis and oxidative responses appear to be involved in hypertrophic hepatocarcinogenesis. Early detection and toxicogenomic characterization of liver hypertrophy using our models may be useful for predicting carcinogenesis. In addition, the identified genes provide novel insight into discrimination between adverse hypertrophy associated with carcinogenesis and adaptive hypertrophy in risk assessment. - Highlights: • Hypertrophy (H) and hypertrophic carcinogenesis (C) were studied by toxicogenomics. • Important genes for H and C were selected by logistic ridge regression analysis. • Amino acid biosynthesis and oxidative responses may be involved in C. • Predictive models for H and C provided 94.8% and 82.7% accuracy, respectively. • The identified genes could be useful for assessment of liver hypertrophy.« less

Predicting breeding habitat for amphibians: a spatiotemporal analysis across Yellowstone National Park

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bartelt, Paul E.; Gallant, Alisa L.; Klaver, Robert W.; Wright, Christopher K.; Patla, Debra A.; Peterson, Charles R.

2011-01-01

The ability to predict amphibian breeding across landscapes is important for informing land management decisions and helping biologists better understand and remediate factors contributing to declines in amphibian populations. We built geospatial models of likely breeding habitats for each of four amphibian species that breed in Yellowstone National Park (YNP). We used field data collected in 2000-2002 from 497 sites among 16 basins and predictor variables from geospatial models produced from remotely sensed data (e.g., digital elevation model, complex topographic index, landform data, wetland probabililty, and vegetative cover). Except for 31 sites in one basin that were surveyed in both 2000 and 2002, all sites were surveyed once. We used polytomous regression to build statistical models for each species of amphibian from 1) field survey site data only, 2) field data combined with data from geospatial models, and 3) data from geospatial models only. Based on measures of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) scores, models of the second type best explained likely breeding habitat because they contained the most information (ROC values ranged from 0.70 - 0.88). However, models of the third type could be applied to the entire YNP landscape and produced maps that could be verified with reserve field data. Accuracy rates for models built for single years were highly variable, ranging from 0.30 to 0.78. Accuracy rates for models built with data combined from multiple years were higher and less variable, ranging from 0.60 to 0.80. Combining results from the geospatial multiyear models yielded maps of "core" breeding areas (areas with high probability values for all three years) surrounded by areas that scored high for only one or two years, providing an estimate of variability among years. Such information can highlight landscape options for amphibian conservation. For example, our models identify alternative for areas that could be protected for each species, including 6828-10 764 ha for tiger salamanders; 971-3017 ha for western toads; 4732-16 696 ha for boreal chorus frogs; 4940-19 690 hectares for Columbia spotted frogs.

Predicting breeding habitat for amphibians: A spatiotemporal analysis across Yellowstone National Park

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bartelt, Paul E.; Gallant, Alisa L.; Klaver, Robert W.; Wright, C.K.; Patla, Debra A.; Peterson, Charles R.

2011-01-01

The ability to predict amphibian breeding across landscapes is important for informing land management decisions and helping biologists better understand and remediate factors contributing to declines in amphibian populations. We built geospatial models of likely breeding habitats for each of four amphibian species that breed in Yellowstone National Park (YNP). We used field data collected in 2000-2002 from 497 sites among 16 basins and predictor variables from geospatial models produced from remotely sensed data (e.g., digital elevation model, complex topographic index, landform data, wetland probability, and vegetative cover). Except for 31 sites in one basin that were surveyed in both 2000 and 2002, all sites were surveyed once. We used polytomous regression to build statistical models for each species of amphibian from (1) field survey site data only, (2) field data combined with data from geospatial models, and (3) data from geospatial models only. Based on measures of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) scores, models of the second type best explained likely breeding habitat because they contained the most information (ROC values ranged from 0.70 to 0.88). However, models of the third type could be applied to the entire YNP landscape and produced maps that could be verified with reserve field data. Accuracy rates for models built for single years were highly variable, ranging from 0.30 to 0.78. Accuracy rates for models built with data combined from multiple years were higher and less variable, ranging from 0.60 to 0.80. Combining results from the geospatial multiyear models yielded maps of "core" breeding areas (areas with high probability values for all three years) surrounded by areas that scored high for only one or two years, providing an estimate of variability among years. Such information can highlight landscape options for amphibian conservation. For example, our models identify alternative areas that could be protected for each species, including 6828-10 764 ha for tiger salamanders, 971-3017 ha for western toads, 4732-16 696 ha for boreal chorus frogs, and 4940-19 690 ha for Columbia spotted frogs. ?? 2011 by the Ecological Society of America.

Predicting breeding habitat for amphibians: a spatiotemporal analysis across Yellowstone National Park.

PubMed

Bartelt, Paul E; Gallant, Alisa L; Klaver, Robert W; Wright, Chris K; Patla, Debra A; Peterson, Charles R

2011-10-01

The ability to predict amphibian breeding across landscapes is important for informing land management decisions and helping biologists better understand and remediate factors contributing to declines in amphibian populations. We built geospatial models of likely breeding habitats for each of four amphibian species that breed in Yellowstone National Park (YNP). We used field data collected in 2000-2002 from 497 sites among 16 basins and predictor variables from geospatial models produced from remotely sensed data (e.g., digital elevation model, complex topographic index, landform data, wetland probability, and vegetative cover). Except for 31 sites in one basin that were surveyed in both 2000 and 2002, all sites were surveyed once. We used polytomous regression to build statistical models for each species of amphibian from (1) field survey site data only, (2) field data combined with data from geospatial models, and (3) data from geospatial models only. Based on measures of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) scores, models of the second type best explained likely breeding habitat because they contained the most information (ROC values ranged from 0.70 to 0.88). However, models of the third type could be applied to the entire YNP landscape and produced maps that could be verified with reserve field data. Accuracy rates for models built for single years were highly variable, ranging from 0.30 to 0.78. Accuracy rates for models built with data combined from multiple years were higher and less variable, ranging from 0.60 to 0.80. Combining results from the geospatial multiyear models yielded maps of "core" breeding areas (areas with high probability values for all three years) surrounded by areas that scored high for only one or two years, providing an estimate of variability among years. Such information can highlight landscape options for amphibian conservation. For example, our models identify alternative areas that could be protected for each species, including 6828-10 764 ha for tiger salamanders, 971-3017 ha for western toads, 4732-16 696 ha for boreal chorus frogs, and 4940-19 690 ha for Columbia spotted frogs.

Using modified fruit fly optimisation algorithm to perform the function test and case studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, Wen-Tsao

2013-06-01

Evolutionary computation is a computing mode established by practically simulating natural evolutionary processes based on the concept of Darwinian Theory, and it is a common research method. The main contribution of this paper was to reinforce the function of searching for the optimised solution using the fruit fly optimization algorithm (FOA), in order to avoid the acquisition of local extremum solutions. The evolutionary computation has grown to include the concepts of animal foraging behaviour and group behaviour. This study discussed three common evolutionary computation methods and compared them with the modified fruit fly optimization algorithm (MFOA). It further investigated the ability of the three mathematical functions in computing extreme values, as well as the algorithm execution speed and the forecast ability of the forecasting model built using the optimised general regression neural network (GRNN) parameters. The findings indicated that there was no obvious difference between particle swarm optimization and the MFOA in regards to the ability to compute extreme values; however, they were both better than the artificial fish swarm algorithm and FOA. In addition, the MFOA performed better than the particle swarm optimization in regards to the algorithm execution speed, and the forecast ability of the forecasting model built using the MFOA's GRNN parameters was better than that of the other three forecasting models.

The effects of green areas on air surface temperature of the Kuala Lumpur city using WRF-ARW modelling and Remote Sensing technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Isa, N. A.; Mohd, W. M. N. Wan; Salleh, S. A.; Ooi, M. C. G.

2018-02-01

Matured trees contain high concentration of chlorophyll that encourages the process of photosynthesis. This process produces oxygen as a by-product and releases it into the atmosphere and helps in lowering the ambient temperature. This study attempts to analyse the effect of green area on air surface temperature of the Kuala Lumpur city. The air surface temperatures of two different dates which are, in March 2006 and March 2016 were simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The green area in the city was extracted using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from two Landsat satellite images. The relationship between the air surface temperature and the green area were analysed using linear regression models. From the study, it was found that, the green area was significantly affecting the distribution of air temperature within the city. A strong negative correlation was identified through this study which indicated that higher NDVI values tend to have lower air surface temperature distribution within the focus study area. It was also found that, different urban setting in mixed built-up and vegetated areas resulted in different distributions of air surface temperature. Future studies should focus on analysing the air surface temperature within the area of mixed built-up and vegetated area.

Identifying built environmental patterns using cluster analysis and GIS: relationships with walking, cycling and body mass index in French adults.

PubMed

Charreire, Hélène; Weber, Christiane; Chaix, Basile; Salze, Paul; Casey, Romain; Banos, Arnaud; Badariotti, Dominique; Kesse-Guyot, Emmanuelle; Hercberg, Serge; Simon, Chantal; Oppert, Jean-Michel

2012-05-23

Socio-ecological models suggest that both individual and neighborhood characteristics contribute to facilitating health-enhancing behaviors such as physical activity. Few European studies have explored relationships between local built environmental characteristics, recreational walking and cycling and weight status in adults. The aim of this study was to identify built environmental patterns in a French urban context and to assess associations with recreational walking and cycling behaviors as performed by middle-aged adult residents. We used a two-step procedure based on cluster analysis to identify built environmental patterns in the region surrounding Paris, France, using measures derived from Geographic Information Systems databases on green spaces, proximity facilities (destinations) and cycle paths. Individual data were obtained from participants in the SU.VI.MAX cohort; 1,309 participants residing in the Ile-de-France in 2007 were included in this analysis. Associations between built environment patterns, leisure walking/cycling data (h/week) and measured weight status were assessed using multinomial logistic regression with adjustment for individual and neighborhood characteristics. Based on accessibility to green spaces, proximity facilities and availability of cycle paths, seven built environmental patterns were identified. The geographic distribution of built environmental patterns in the Ile-de-France showed that a pattern characterized by poor spatial accessibility to green spaces and proximity facilities and an absence of cycle paths was found only in neighborhoods in the outer suburbs, whereas patterns characterized by better spatial accessibility to green spaces, proximity facilities and cycle paths were more evenly distributed across the region. Compared to the reference pattern (poor accessibility to green areas and facilities, absence of cycle paths), subjects residing in neighborhoods characterized by high accessibility to green areas and local facilities and by a high density of cycle paths were more likely to walk/cycle, after adjustment for individual and neighborhood sociodemographic characteristics (OR = 2.5 95%CI 1.4-4.6). Body mass index did not differ across patterns. Built environmental patterns were associated with walking and cycling among French adults. These analyses may be useful in determining urban and public health policies aimed at promoting a healthy lifestyle.

Inferring gene regression networks with model trees

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Novel strategies are required in order to handle the huge amount of data produced by microarray technologies. To infer gene regulatory networks, the first step is to find direct regulatory relationships between genes building the so-called gene co-expression networks. They are typically generated using correlation statistics as pairwise similarity measures. Correlation-based methods are very useful in order to determine whether two genes have a strong global similarity but do not detect local similarities. Results We propose model trees as a method to identify gene interaction networks. While correlation-based methods analyze each pair of genes, in our approach we generate a single regression tree for each gene from the remaining genes. Finally, a graph from all the relationships among output and input genes is built taking into account whether the pair of genes is statistically significant. For this reason we apply a statistical procedure to control the false discovery rate. The performance of our approach, named REGNET, is experimentally tested on two well-known data sets: Saccharomyces Cerevisiae and E.coli data set. First, the biological coherence of the results are tested. Second the E.coli transcriptional network (in the Regulon database) is used as control to compare the results to that of a correlation-based method. This experiment shows that REGNET performs more accurately at detecting true gene associations than the Pearson and Spearman zeroth and first-order correlation-based methods. Conclusions REGNET generates gene association networks from gene expression data, and differs from correlation-based methods in that the relationship between one gene and others is calculated simultaneously. Model trees are very useful techniques to estimate the numerical values for the target genes by linear regression functions. They are very often more precise than linear regression models because they can add just different linear regressions to separate areas of the search space favoring to infer localized similarities over a more global similarity. Furthermore, experimental results show the good performance of REGNET. PMID:20950452

The neighborhood environment and obesity: Understanding variation by race/ethnicity.

PubMed

Wong, Michelle S; Chan, Kitty S; Jones-Smith, Jessica C; Colantuoni, Elizabeth; Thorpe, Roland J; Bleich, Sara N

2018-06-01

Neighborhood characteristics have been associated with obesity, but less is known whether relationships vary by race/ethnicity. This study examined the relationship between soda consumption - a behavior strongly associated with obesity - and weight status with neighborhood sociodemographic, social, and built environments by race/ethnicity. We merged data on adults from the 2011-2013 California Health Interview Survey, U.S. Census data, and InfoUSA (n=62,396). Dependent variables were soda consumption and weight status outcomes (body mass index and obesity status). Main independent variables were measures of three neighborhood environments: social (social cohesion and safety), sociodemographic (neighborhood socioeconomic status, educational attainment, percent Asian, percent Hispanic, and percent black), and built environments (number of grocery stores, convenience stores, fast food restaurants, and gyms in neighborhood). We fit multi-level linear and logistic regression models, stratified by individual race/ethnicity (NH (non-Hispanic) Whites, NH African Americans, Hispanics, and NH Asians) controlling for individual-level characteristics, to estimate neighborhood contextual effects on study outcomes. Lower neighborhood educational attainment was associated with higher odds of obesity and soda consumption in all racial/ethnic groups. We found fewer associations between study outcomes and the neighborhood, especially the built environment, among NH African Americans and NH Asians. While improvements to neighborhood environment may be promising to reduce obesity, null associations among minority subgroups suggest that changes, particularly to the built environment, may alone be insufficient to address obesity in these groups. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Promoting sustainable mobility by modelling bike sharing usage in Lyon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tran, T. D.; Ovtracht, N.

2018-04-01

This paper aims to present a modelling of bike sharing demand at station level in the city of Lyon. Multiple linear regression models were used in order to predict the daily flows of each station. The data used in this project consists of over 6 million bike sharing trips recorded in 2011. The built environment variables used in the model are determined in a buffer zone of 300 meters around each bike sharing station. The results show that bike sharing is principally used for commuting purposes. An interesting finding is that the bike sharing network characteristics are important parameters to improve the prediction quality of the models. The present results could be useful for others cities which want to adopt a bike sharing system and also for a better planning and operation of existing systems. The approach in this paper can be useful for estimating car-sharing demand.

The relationship between perceived health and physical activity indoors, outdoors in built environments, and outdoors in nature.

PubMed

Pasanen, Tytti P; Tyrväinen, Liisa; Korpela, Kalevi M

2014-11-01

A body of evidence shows that both physical activity and exposure to nature are connected to improved general and mental health. Experimental studies have consistently found short term positive effects of physical activity in nature compared with built environments. This study explores whether these benefits are also evident in everyday life, perceived over repeated contact with nature. The topic is important from the perspectives of city planning, individual well-being, and public health. National survey data (n = 2,070) from Finland was analysed using structural regression analyses. Perceived general health, emotional well-being, and sleep quality were regressed on the weekly frequency of physical activity indoors, outdoors in built environments, and in nature. Socioeconomic factors and other plausible confounders were controlled for. Emotional well-being showed the most consistent positive connection to physical activity in nature, whereas general health was positively associated with physical activity in both built and natural outdoor settings. Better sleep quality was weakly connected to frequent physical activity in nature, but the connection was outweighed by other factors. The results indicate that nature provides an added value to the known benefits of physical activity. Repeated exercise in nature is, in particular, connected to better emotional well-being. © 2014 The Authors. Applied Psychology: Health and Well-Being published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of The International Association of Applied Psychology.

Determination of total iron-reactive phenolics, anthocyanins and tannins in wine grapes of skins and seeds based on near-infrared hyperspectral imaging.

PubMed

Zhang, Ni; Liu, Xu; Jin, Xiaoduo; Li, Chen; Wu, Xuan; Yang, Shuqin; Ning, Jifeng; Yanne, Paul

2017-12-15

Phenolics contents in wine grapes are key indicators for assessing ripeness. Near-infrared hyperspectral images during ripening have been explored to achieve an effective method for predicting phenolics contents. Principal component regression (PCR), partial least squares regression (PLSR) and support vector regression (SVR) models were built, respectively. The results show that SVR behaves globally better than PLSR and PCR, except in predicting tannins content of seeds. For the best prediction results, the squared correlation coefficient and root mean square error reached 0.8960 and 0.1069g/L (+)-catechin equivalents (CE), respectively, for tannins in skins, 0.9065 and 0.1776 (g/L CE) for total iron-reactive phenolics (TIRP) in skins, 0.8789 and 0.1442 (g/L M3G) for anthocyanins in skins, 0.9243 and 0.2401 (g/L CE) for tannins in seeds, and 0.8790 and 0.5190 (g/L CE) for TIRP in seeds. Our results indicated that NIR hyperspectral imaging has good prospects for evaluation of phenolics in wine grapes. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Impacts of multicomponent environment on solubility of puerarin in biopharmaceutics classification system of Chinese materia medica].

PubMed

Hou, Cheng-Bo; Wang, Guo-Peng; Zhang, Qiang; Yang, Wen-Ning; Lv, Bei-Ran; Wei, Li; Dong, Ling

2014-12-01

To illustrate the solubility involved in biopharmaceutics classification system of Chinese materia medica (CMMBCS) , the influences of artificial multicomponent environment on solubility were investigated in this study. Mathematical model was built to describe the variation trend of their influence on the solubility of puerarin. Carried out with progressive levels, single component environment: baicalin, berberine and glycyrrhizic acid; double-component environment: baicalin and glycyrrhizic acid, baicalin and berberine and glycyrrhizic acid and berberine; and treble-component environment: baicalin, berberin, glycyrrhizic acid were used to describe the variation tendency of their influences on the solubility of puerarin, respectively. And then, the mathematical regression equation model was established to characterize the solubility of puerarin under multicomponent environment.

Predict the fatigue life of crack based on extended finite element method and SVR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Weizhen; Jiang, Zhansi; Jiang, Hui

2018-05-01

Using extended finite element method (XFEM) and support vector regression (SVR) to predict the fatigue life of plate crack. Firstly, the XFEM is employed to calculate the stress intensity factors (SIFs) with given crack sizes. Then predicetion model can be built based on the function relationship of the SIFs with the fatigue life or crack length. Finally, according to the prediction model predict the SIFs at different crack sizes or different cycles. Because of the accuracy of the forward Euler method only ensured by the small step size, a new prediction method is presented to resolve the issue. The numerical examples were studied to demonstrate the proposed method allow a larger step size and have a high accuracy.

Female married illiteracy as the most important continual determinant of total fertility rate among districts of Empowered Action Group States of India: Evidence from Annual Health Survey 2011–12

PubMed Central

Kumar, Rajesh; Dogra, Vishal; Rani, Khushbu; Sahu, Kanti

2017-01-01

Background: District level determinants of total fertility rate in Empowered Action Group states of India can help in ongoing population stabilization programs in India. Objective: Present study intends to assess the role of district level determinants in predicting total fertility rate among districts of the Empowered Action Group states of India. Material and Methods: Data from Annual Health Survey (2011-12) was analysed using STATA and R software packages. Multiple linear regression models were built and evaluated using Akaike Information Criterion. For further understanding, recursive partitioning was used to prepare a regression tree. Results: Female married illiteracy positively associated with total fertility rate and explained more than half (53%) of variance. Under multiple linear regression model, married illiteracy, infant mortality rate, Ante natal care registration, household size, median age of live birth and sex ratio explained 70% of total variance in total fertility rate. In regression tree, female married illiteracy was the root node and splits at 42% determined TFR <= 2.7. The next left side branch was again married illiteracy with splits at 23% to determine TFR <= 2.1. Conclusion: We conclude that female married illiteracy is one of the most important determinants explaining total fertility rate among the districts of an Empowered Action Group states. Focus on female literacy is required to stabilize the population growth in long run. PMID:29416999

Uncovering state-dependent relationships in shallow lakes using Bayesian latent variable regression.

PubMed

Vitense, Kelsey; Hanson, Mark A; Herwig, Brian R; Zimmer, Kyle D; Fieberg, John

2018-03-01

Ecosystems sometimes undergo dramatic shifts between contrasting regimes. Shallow lakes, for instance, can transition between two alternative stable states: a clear state dominated by submerged aquatic vegetation and a turbid state dominated by phytoplankton. Theoretical models suggest that critical nutrient thresholds differentiate three lake types: highly resilient clear lakes, lakes that may switch between clear and turbid states following perturbations, and highly resilient turbid lakes. For effective and efficient management of shallow lakes and other systems, managers need tools to identify critical thresholds and state-dependent relationships between driving variables and key system features. Using shallow lakes as a model system for which alternative stable states have been demonstrated, we developed an integrated framework using Bayesian latent variable regression (BLR) to classify lake states, identify critical total phosphorus (TP) thresholds, and estimate steady state relationships between TP and chlorophyll a (chl a) using cross-sectional data. We evaluated the method using data simulated from a stochastic differential equation model and compared its performance to k-means clustering with regression (KMR). We also applied the framework to data comprising 130 shallow lakes. For simulated data sets, BLR had high state classification rates (median/mean accuracy >97%) and accurately estimated TP thresholds and state-dependent TP-chl a relationships. Classification and estimation improved with increasing sample size and decreasing noise levels. Compared to KMR, BLR had higher classification rates and better approximated the TP-chl a steady state relationships and TP thresholds. We fit the BLR model to three different years of empirical shallow lake data, and managers can use the estimated bifurcation diagrams to prioritize lakes for management according to their proximity to thresholds and chance of successful rehabilitation. Our model improves upon previous methods for shallow lakes because it allows classification and regression to occur simultaneously and inform one another, directly estimates TP thresholds and the uncertainty associated with thresholds and state classifications, and enables meaningful constraints to be built into models. The BLR framework is broadly applicable to other ecosystems known to exhibit alternative stable states in which regression can be used to establish relationships between driving variables and state variables. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Capturing the Interrelationship between Objectively Measured Physical Activity and Sedentary Behaviour in Children in the Context of Diverse Environmental Exposures.

PubMed

Katapally, Tarun R; Muhajarine, Nazeem

2015-09-07

Even though physical activity and sedentary behaviour are two distinct behaviours, their interdependent relationship needs to be studied in the same environment. This study examines the influence of urban design, neighbourhood built and social environment, and household and individual factors on the interdependent relationship between objectively measured physical activity and sedentary behaviour in children in the Canadian city of Saskatoon. Saskatoon's built environment was assessed by two validated observation tools. Neighbourhood socioeconomic variables were derived from 2006 Statistics Canada Census and 2010 G5 Census projections. A questionnaire was administered to 10-14 year old children to collect individual and household data, followed by accelerometry to collect physical activity and sedentary behaviour data. Multilevel logistic regression models were developed to understand the interrelationship between physical activity and sedentary behaviour in the context of diverse environmental exposures. A complex set of factors including denser built environment, positive peer relationships and consistent parental support influenced the interrelationship between physical activity and sedentary behaviour. In developing interventions to facilitate active living, it is not only imperative to delineate pathways through which diverse environmental exposures influence physical activity and sedentary behaviour, but also to account for the interrelationship between physical activity and sedentary behaviour.

Kernel Density Estimation as a Measure of Environmental Exposure Related to Insulin Resistance in Breast Cancer Survivors.

PubMed

Jankowska, Marta M; Natarajan, Loki; Godbole, Suneeta; Meseck, Kristin; Sears, Dorothy D; Patterson, Ruth E; Kerr, Jacqueline

2017-07-01

Background: Environmental factors may influence breast cancer; however, most studies have measured environmental exposure in neighborhoods around home residences (static exposure). We hypothesize that tracking environmental exposures over time and space (dynamic exposure) is key to assessing total exposure. This study compares breast cancer survivors' exposure to walkable and recreation-promoting environments using dynamic Global Positioning System (GPS) and static home-based measures of exposure in relation to insulin resistance. Methods: GPS data from 249 breast cancer survivors living in San Diego County were collected for one week along with fasting blood draw. Exposure to recreation spaces and walkability was measured for each woman's home address within an 800 m buffer (static), and using a kernel density weight of GPS tracks (dynamic). Participants' exposure estimates were related to insulin resistance (using the homeostatic model assessment of insulin resistance, HOMA-IR) controlled by age and body mass index (BMI) in linear regression models. Results: The dynamic measurement method resulted in greater variability in built environment exposure values than did the static method. Regression results showed no association between HOMA-IR and home-based, static measures of walkability and recreation area exposure. GPS-based dynamic measures of both walkability and recreation area were significantly associated with lower HOMA-IR ( P < 0.05). Conclusions: Dynamic exposure measurements may provide important evidence for community- and individual-level interventions that can address cancer risk inequities arising from environments wherein breast cancer survivors live and engage. Impact: This is the first study to compare associations of dynamic versus static built environment exposure measures with insulin outcomes in breast cancer survivors. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 26(7); 1078-84. ©2017 AACR . ©2017 American Association for Cancer Research.

Longitudinal associations between built environment characteristics and changes in active commuting.

PubMed

Yang, Lin; Griffin, Simon; Khaw, Kay-Tee; Wareham, Nick; Panter, Jenna

2017-05-17

Few studies have assessed the predictors of changes in commuting. This study investigated the associations between physical environmental characteristics and changes in active commuting. Adults from the population-based European Prospective Investigation into Cancer (EPIC)-Norfolk cohort self-reported commuting patterns in 2000 and 2007. Active commuters were defined as those who reported 'always' or 'usually' walking or cycling to work. Environmental attributes around the home and route were assessed using Geographical Information Systems. Associations between potential environmental predictors and uptake and maintenance of active commuting were modelled using logistic regression, adjusting for age, sex and BMI. Of the 2757 participants (62% female, median baseline age: 52, IQR: 50-56 years), most were passive commuters at baseline (76%, n = 2099) and did not change their usual commute mode over 7 years (82%, n = 2277). In multivariable regression models, participants living further from work were less likely to take up active commuting and those living in neighbourhoods with more streetlights were more likely to take up active commuting (both p < 0.05). Findings for maintenance were similar: participants living further from work (over 10 km, OR: 0.06; 95% CI: 0.25 to 0.13) and had a main or secondary road on route were more likely to maintain their active commuting (OR: 0.52; 95% CI: 0.28 to 0.98). Those living in neighbourhoods with greater density of employment locations were more likely to maintain their active commuting. Co-locating residential and employment centres as well as redesigning urban areas to improve safety for pedestrians and cyclists may encourage active commuting. Future evaluative studies should seek to assess the effects of redesigning the built environment on active commuting and physical activity.

Developing EHR-driven heart failure risk prediction models using CPXR(Log) with the probabilistic loss function.

PubMed

Taslimitehrani, Vahid; Dong, Guozhu; Pereira, Naveen L; Panahiazar, Maryam; Pathak, Jyotishman

2016-04-01

Computerized survival prediction in healthcare identifying the risk of disease mortality, helps healthcare providers to effectively manage their patients by providing appropriate treatment options. In this study, we propose to apply a classification algorithm, Contrast Pattern Aided Logistic Regression (CPXR(Log)) with the probabilistic loss function, to develop and validate prognostic risk models to predict 1, 2, and 5year survival in heart failure (HF) using data from electronic health records (EHRs) at Mayo Clinic. The CPXR(Log) constructs a pattern aided logistic regression model defined by several patterns and corresponding local logistic regression models. One of the models generated by CPXR(Log) achieved an AUC and accuracy of 0.94 and 0.91, respectively, and significantly outperformed prognostic models reported in prior studies. Data extracted from EHRs allowed incorporation of patient co-morbidities into our models which helped improve the performance of the CPXR(Log) models (15.9% AUC improvement), although did not improve the accuracy of the models built by other classifiers. We also propose a probabilistic loss function to determine the large error and small error instances. The new loss function used in the algorithm outperforms other functions used in the previous studies by 1% improvement in the AUC. This study revealed that using EHR data to build prediction models can be very challenging using existing classification methods due to the high dimensionality and complexity of EHR data. The risk models developed by CPXR(Log) also reveal that HF is a highly heterogeneous disease, i.e., different subgroups of HF patients require different types of considerations with their diagnosis and treatment. Our risk models provided two valuable insights for application of predictive modeling techniques in biomedicine: Logistic risk models often make systematic prediction errors, and it is prudent to use subgroup based prediction models such as those given by CPXR(Log) when investigating heterogeneous diseases. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

External built residential environment characteristics that affect mental health of adults.

PubMed

Ochodo, Charles; Ndetei, D M; Moturi, W N; Otieno, J O

2014-10-01

External built residential environment characteristics include aspects of building design such as types of walls, doors and windows, green spaces, density of houses per unit area, and waste disposal facilities. Neighborhoods that are characterized by poor quality external built environment can contribute to psychosocial stress and increase the likelihood of mental health disorders. This study investigated the relationship between characteristics of external built residential environment and mental health disorders in selected residences of Nakuru Municipality, Kenya. External built residential environment characteristics were investigated for 544 residents living in different residential areas that were categorized by their socioeconomic status. Medically validated interview schedules were used to determine mental health of residents in the respective neighborhoods. The relationship between characteristics of the external built residential environment and mental health of residents was determined by multivariable logistic regression analyses and chi-square tests. The results show that walling materials used on buildings, density of dwelling units, state of street lighting, types of doors, states of roofs, and states of windows are some built external residential environment characteristics that affect mental health of adult males and females. Urban residential areas that are characterized by poor quality external built environment substantially expose the population to daily stressors and inconveniences that increase the likelihood of developing mental health disorders.

Case study on prediction of remaining methane potential of landfilled municipal solid waste by statistical analysis of waste composition data.

PubMed

Sel, İlker; Çakmakcı, Mehmet; Özkaya, Bestamin; Suphi Altan, H

2016-10-01

Main objective of this study was to develop a statistical model for easier and faster Biochemical Methane Potential (BMP) prediction of landfilled municipal solid waste by analyzing waste composition of excavated samples from 12 sampling points and three waste depths representing different landfilling ages of closed and active sections of a sanitary landfill site located in İstanbul, Turkey. Results of Principal Component Analysis (PCA) were used as a decision support tool to evaluation and describe the waste composition variables. Four principal component were extracted describing 76% of data set variance. The most effective components were determined as PCB, PO, T, D, W, FM, moisture and BMP for the data set. Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) models were built by original compositional data and transformed data to determine differences. It was observed that even residual plots were better for transformed data the R(2) and Adjusted R(2) values were not improved significantly. The best preliminary BMP prediction models consisted of D, W, T and FM waste fractions for both versions of regressions. Adjusted R(2) values of the raw and transformed models were determined as 0.69 and 0.57, respectively. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Signaling mechanisms underlying the robustness and tunability of the plant immune network

PubMed Central

Kim, Yungil; Tsuda, Kenichi; Igarashi, Daisuke; Hillmer, Rachel A.; Sakakibara, Hitoshi; Myers, Chad L.; Katagiri, Fumiaki

2014-01-01

Summary How does robust and tunable behavior emerge in a complex biological network? We sought to understand this for the signaling network controlling pattern-triggered immunity (PTI) in Arabidopsis. A dynamic network model containing four major signaling sectors, the jasmonate, ethylene, PAD4, and salicylate sectors, which together explain up to 80% of the PTI level, was built using data for dynamic sector activities and PTI levels under exhaustive combinatorial sector perturbations. Our regularized multiple regression model had a high level of predictive power and captured known and unexpected signal flows in the network. The sole inhibitory sector in the model, the ethylene sector, was central to the network robustness via its inhibition of the jasmonate sector. The model's multiple input sites linked specific signal input patterns varying in strength and timing to different network response patterns, indicating a mechanism enabling tunability. PMID:24439900

Prediction of Human Cytochrome P450 Inhibition Using a Multitask Deep Autoencoder Neural Network.

PubMed

Li, Xiang; Xu, Youjun; Lai, Luhua; Pei, Jianfeng

2018-05-30

Adverse side effects of drug-drug interactions induced by human cytochrome P450 (CYP450) inhibition is an important consideration in drug discovery. It is highly desirable to develop computational models that can predict the inhibitive effect of a compound against a specific CYP450 isoform. In this study, we developed a multitask model for concurrent inhibition prediction of five major CYP450 isoforms, namely, 1A2, 2C9, 2C19, 2D6, and 3A4. The model was built by training a multitask autoencoder deep neural network (DNN) on a large dataset containing more than 13 000 compounds, extracted from the PubChem BioAssay Database. We demonstrate that the multitask model gave better prediction results than that of single-task models, previous reported classifiers, and traditional machine learning methods on an average of five prediction tasks. Our multitask DNN model gave average prediction accuracies of 86.4% for the 10-fold cross-validation and 88.7% for the external test datasets. In addition, we built linear regression models to quantify how the other tasks contributed to the prediction difference of a given task between single-task and multitask models, and we explained under what conditions the multitask model will outperform the single-task model, which suggested how to use multitask DNN models more effectively. We applied sensitivity analysis to extract useful knowledge about CYP450 inhibition, which may shed light on the structural features of these isoforms and give hints about how to avoid side effects during drug development. Our models are freely available at http://repharma.pku.edu.cn/deepcyp/home.php or http://www.pkumdl.cn/deepcyp/home.php .

Predicting Reactive Intermediate Quantum Yields from Dissolved Organic Matter Photolysis Using Optical Properties and Antioxidant Capacity.

PubMed

Mckay, Garrett; Huang, Wenxi; Romera-Castillo, Cristina; Crouch, Jenna E; Rosario-Ortiz, Fernando L; Jaffé, Rudolf

2017-05-16

The antioxidant capacity and formation of photochemically produced reactive intermediates (RI) was studied for water samples collected from the Florida Everglades with different spatial (marsh versus estuarine) and temporal (wet versus dry season) characteristics. Measured RI included triplet excited states of dissolved organic matter ( 3 DOM*), singlet oxygen ( 1 O 2 ), and the hydroxyl radical ( • OH). Single and multiple linear regression modeling were performed using a broad range of extrinsic (to predict RI formation rates, R RI ) and intrinsic (to predict RI quantum yields, Φ RI ) parameters. Multiple linear regression models consistently led to better predictions of R RI and Φ RI for our data set but poor prediction of Φ RI for a previously published data set,1 probably because the predictors are intercorrelated (Pearson's r > 0.5). Single linear regression models were built with data compiled from previously published studies (n ≈ 120) in which E2:E3, S, and Φ RI values were measured, which revealed a high degree of similarity between RI-optical property relationships across DOM samples of diverse sources. This study reveals that • OH formation is, in general, decoupled from 3 DOM* and 1 O 2 formation, providing supporting evidence that 3 DOM* is not a • OH precursor. Finally, Φ RI for 1 O 2 and 3 DOM* correlated negatively with antioxidant activity (a surrogate for electron donating capacity) for the collected samples, which is consistent with intramolecular oxidation of DOM moieties by 3 DOM*.

A robust real-time surface reconstruction method on point clouds captured from a 3D surface photogrammetry system

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Wenyang; Cheung, Yam; Sawant, Amit

2016-05-15

Purpose: To develop a robust and real-time surface reconstruction method on point clouds captured from a 3D surface photogrammetry system. Methods: The authors have developed a robust and fast surface reconstruction method on point clouds acquired by the photogrammetry system, without explicitly solving the partial differential equation required by a typical variational approach. Taking advantage of the overcomplete nature of the acquired point clouds, their method solves and propagates a sparse linear relationship from the point cloud manifold to the surface manifold, assuming both manifolds share similar local geometry. With relatively consistent point cloud acquisitions, the authors propose a sparsemore » regression (SR) model to directly approximate the target point cloud as a sparse linear combination from the training set, assuming that the point correspondences built by the iterative closest point (ICP) is reasonably accurate and have residual errors following a Gaussian distribution. To accommodate changing noise levels and/or presence of inconsistent occlusions during the acquisition, the authors further propose a modified sparse regression (MSR) model to model the potentially large and sparse error built by ICP with a Laplacian prior. The authors evaluated the proposed method on both clinical point clouds acquired under consistent acquisition conditions and on point clouds with inconsistent occlusions. The authors quantitatively evaluated the reconstruction performance with respect to root-mean-squared-error, by comparing its reconstruction results against that from the variational method. Results: On clinical point clouds, both the SR and MSR models have achieved sub-millimeter reconstruction accuracy and reduced the reconstruction time by two orders of magnitude to a subsecond reconstruction time. On point clouds with inconsistent occlusions, the MSR model has demonstrated its advantage in achieving consistent and robust performance despite the introduced occlusions. Conclusions: The authors have developed a fast and robust surface reconstruction method on point clouds captured from a 3D surface photogrammetry system, with demonstrated sub-millimeter reconstruction accuracy and subsecond reconstruction time. It is suitable for real-time motion tracking in radiotherapy, with clear surface structures for better quantifications.« less

A robust real-time surface reconstruction method on point clouds captured from a 3D surface photogrammetry system.

PubMed

Liu, Wenyang; Cheung, Yam; Sawant, Amit; Ruan, Dan

2016-05-01

To develop a robust and real-time surface reconstruction method on point clouds captured from a 3D surface photogrammetry system. The authors have developed a robust and fast surface reconstruction method on point clouds acquired by the photogrammetry system, without explicitly solving the partial differential equation required by a typical variational approach. Taking advantage of the overcomplete nature of the acquired point clouds, their method solves and propagates a sparse linear relationship from the point cloud manifold to the surface manifold, assuming both manifolds share similar local geometry. With relatively consistent point cloud acquisitions, the authors propose a sparse regression (SR) model to directly approximate the target point cloud as a sparse linear combination from the training set, assuming that the point correspondences built by the iterative closest point (ICP) is reasonably accurate and have residual errors following a Gaussian distribution. To accommodate changing noise levels and/or presence of inconsistent occlusions during the acquisition, the authors further propose a modified sparse regression (MSR) model to model the potentially large and sparse error built by ICP with a Laplacian prior. The authors evaluated the proposed method on both clinical point clouds acquired under consistent acquisition conditions and on point clouds with inconsistent occlusions. The authors quantitatively evaluated the reconstruction performance with respect to root-mean-squared-error, by comparing its reconstruction results against that from the variational method. On clinical point clouds, both the SR and MSR models have achieved sub-millimeter reconstruction accuracy and reduced the reconstruction time by two orders of magnitude to a subsecond reconstruction time. On point clouds with inconsistent occlusions, the MSR model has demonstrated its advantage in achieving consistent and robust performance despite the introduced occlusions. The authors have developed a fast and robust surface reconstruction method on point clouds captured from a 3D surface photogrammetry system, with demonstrated sub-millimeter reconstruction accuracy and subsecond reconstruction time. It is suitable for real-time motion tracking in radiotherapy, with clear surface structures for better quantifications.

A robust real-time surface reconstruction method on point clouds captured from a 3D surface photogrammetry system

PubMed Central

Liu, Wenyang; Cheung, Yam; Sawant, Amit; Ruan, Dan

2016-01-01

Purpose: To develop a robust and real-time surface reconstruction method on point clouds captured from a 3D surface photogrammetry system. Methods: The authors have developed a robust and fast surface reconstruction method on point clouds acquired by the photogrammetry system, without explicitly solving the partial differential equation required by a typical variational approach. Taking advantage of the overcomplete nature of the acquired point clouds, their method solves and propagates a sparse linear relationship from the point cloud manifold to the surface manifold, assuming both manifolds share similar local geometry. With relatively consistent point cloud acquisitions, the authors propose a sparse regression (SR) model to directly approximate the target point cloud as a sparse linear combination from the training set, assuming that the point correspondences built by the iterative closest point (ICP) is reasonably accurate and have residual errors following a Gaussian distribution. To accommodate changing noise levels and/or presence of inconsistent occlusions during the acquisition, the authors further propose a modified sparse regression (MSR) model to model the potentially large and sparse error built by ICP with a Laplacian prior. The authors evaluated the proposed method on both clinical point clouds acquired under consistent acquisition conditions and on point clouds with inconsistent occlusions. The authors quantitatively evaluated the reconstruction performance with respect to root-mean-squared-error, by comparing its reconstruction results against that from the variational method. Results: On clinical point clouds, both the SR and MSR models have achieved sub-millimeter reconstruction accuracy and reduced the reconstruction time by two orders of magnitude to a subsecond reconstruction time. On point clouds with inconsistent occlusions, the MSR model has demonstrated its advantage in achieving consistent and robust performance despite the introduced occlusions. Conclusions: The authors have developed a fast and robust surface reconstruction method on point clouds captured from a 3D surface photogrammetry system, with demonstrated sub-millimeter reconstruction accuracy and subsecond reconstruction time. It is suitable for real-time motion tracking in radiotherapy, with clear surface structures for better quantifications. PMID:27147347

Nomogram for Predicting the Benefit of Adjuvant Chemoradiotherapy for Resected Gallbladder Cancer

PubMed Central

Wang, Samuel J.; Lemieux, Andrew; Kalpathy-Cramer, Jayashree; Ord, Celine B.; Walker, Gary V.; Fuller, C. David; Kim, Jong-Sung; Thomas, Charles R.

2011-01-01

Purpose Although adjuvant chemoradiotherapy for resected gallbladder cancer may improve survival for some patients, identifying which patients will benefit remains challenging because of the rarity of this disease. The specific aim of this study was to create a decision aid to help make individualized estimates of the potential survival benefit of adjuvant chemoradiotherapy for patients with resected gallbladder cancer. Methods Patients with resected gallbladder cancer were selected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) –Medicare database who were diagnosed between 1995 and 2005. Covariates included age, race, sex, stage, and receipt of adjuvant chemotherapy or chemoradiotherapy (CRT). Propensity score weighting was used to balance covariates between treated and untreated groups. Several types of multivariate survival regression models were constructed and compared, including Cox proportional hazards, Weibull, exponential, log-logistic, and lognormal models. Model performance was compared using the Akaike information criterion. The primary end point was overall survival with or without adjuvant chemotherapy or CRT. Results A total of 1,137 patients met the inclusion criteria for the study. The lognormal survival model showed the best performance. A Web browser–based nomogram was built from this model to make individualized estimates of survival. The model predicts that certain subsets of patients with at least T2 or N1 disease will gain a survival benefit from adjuvant CRT, and the magnitude of benefit for an individual patient can vary. Conclusion A nomogram built from a parametric survival model from the SEER-Medicare database can be used as a decision aid to predict which gallbladder patients may benefit from adjuvant CRT. PMID:22067404

Using Patient Demographics and Statistical Modeling to Predict Knee Tibia Component Sizing in Total Knee Arthroplasty.

PubMed

Ren, Anna N; Neher, Robert E; Bell, Tyler; Grimm, James

2018-06-01

Preoperative planning is important to achieve successful implantation in primary total knee arthroplasty (TKA). However, traditional TKA templating techniques are not accurate enough to predict the component size to a very close range. With the goal of developing a general predictive statistical model using patient demographic information, ordinal logistic regression was applied to build a proportional odds model to predict the tibia component size. The study retrospectively collected the data of 1992 primary Persona Knee System TKA procedures. Of them, 199 procedures were randomly selected as testing data and the rest of the data were randomly partitioned between model training data and model evaluation data with a ratio of 7:3. Different models were trained and evaluated on the training and validation data sets after data exploration. The final model had patient gender, age, weight, and height as independent variables and predicted the tibia size within 1 size difference 96% of the time on the validation data, 94% of the time on the testing data, and 92% on a prospective cadaver data set. The study results indicated the statistical model built by ordinal logistic regression can increase the accuracy of tibia sizing information for Persona Knee preoperative templating. This research shows statistical modeling may be used with radiographs to dramatically enhance the templating accuracy, efficiency, and quality. In general, this methodology can be applied to other TKA products when the data are applicable. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Streakline-based closed-loop control of a bluff body flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roca, Pablo; Cammilleri, Ada; Duriez, Thomas; Mathelin, Lionel; Artana, Guillermo

2014-04-01

A novel closed-loop control methodology is introduced to stabilize a cylinder wake flow based on images of streaklines. Passive scalar tracers are injected upstream the cylinder and their concentration is monitored downstream at certain image sectors of the wake. An AutoRegressive with eXogenous inputs mathematical model is built from these images and a Generalized Predictive Controller algorithm is used to compute the actuation required to stabilize the wake by adding momentum tangentially to the cylinder wall through plasma actuators. The methodology is new and has real-world applications. It is demonstrated on a numerical simulation and the provided results show that good performances are achieved.

Exploring the Spatial Association between Social Deprivation and Cardiovascular Disease Mortality at the Neighborhood Level.

PubMed

Ford, Mary Margaret; Highfield, Linda D

2016-01-01

Cardiovascular disease (CVD), the leading cause of death in the United States, is impacted by neighborhood-level factors including social deprivation. To measure the association between social deprivation and CVD mortality in Harris County, Texas, global (Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and local (Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR)) models were built. The models explored the spatial variation in the relationship at a census-tract level while controlling for age, income by race, and education. A significant and spatially varying association (p < .01) was found between social deprivation and CVD mortality, when controlling for all other factors in the model. The GWR model provided a better model fit over the analogous OLS model (R2 = .65 vs. .57), reinforcing the importance of geography and neighborhood of residence in the relationship between social deprivation and CVD mortality. Findings from the GWR model can be used to identify neighborhoods at greatest risk for poor health outcomes and to inform the placement of community-based interventions.

An empirical model of water quality for use in rapid management strategy evaluation in Southeast Queensland, Australia.

PubMed

de la Mare, William; Ellis, Nick; Pascual, Ricardo; Tickell, Sharon

2012-04-01

Simulation models have been widely adopted in fisheries for management strategy evaluation (MSE). However, in catchment management of water quality, MSE is hampered by the complexity of both decision space and the hydrological process models. Empirical models based on monitoring data provide a feasible alternative to process models; they run much faster and, by conditioning on data, they can simulate realistic responses to management actions. Using 10 years of water quality indicators from Queensland, Australia, we built an empirical model suitable for rapid MSE that reproduces the water quality variables' mean and covariance structure, adjusts the expected indicators through local management effects, and propagates effects downstream by capturing inter-site regression relationships. Empirical models enable managers to search the space of possible strategies using rapid assessment. They provide not only realistic responses in water quality indicators but also variability in those indicators, allowing managers to assess strategies in an uncertain world. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Categorical QSAR models for skin sensitization based on local lymph node assay measures and both ground and excited state 4D-fingerprint descriptors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Jianzhong; Kern, Petra S.; Gerberick, G. Frank; Santos-Filho, Osvaldo A.; Esposito, Emilio X.; Hopfinger, Anton J.; Tseng, Yufeng J.

2008-06-01

In previous studies we have developed categorical QSAR models for predicting skin-sensitization potency based on 4D-fingerprint (4D-FP) descriptors and in vivo murine local lymph node assay (LLNA) measures. Only 4D-FP derived from the ground state (GMAX) structures of the molecules were used to build the QSAR models. In this study we have generated 4D-FP descriptors from the first excited state (EMAX) structures of the molecules. The GMAX, EMAX and the combined ground and excited state 4D-FP descriptors (GEMAX) were employed in building categorical QSAR models. Logistic regression (LR) and partial least square coupled logistic regression (PLS-CLR), found to be effective model building for the LLNA skin-sensitization measures in our previous studies, were used again in this study. This also permitted comparison of the prior ground state models to those involving first excited state 4D-FP descriptors. Three types of categorical QSAR models were constructed for each of the GMAX, EMAX and GEMAX datasets: a binary model (2-state), an ordinal model (3-state) and a binary-binary model (two-2-state). No significant differences exist among the LR 2-state model constructed for each of the three datasets. However, the PLS-CLR 3-state and 2-state models based on the EMAX and GEMAX datasets have higher predictivity than those constructed using only the GMAX dataset. These EMAX and GMAX categorical models are also more significant and predictive than corresponding models built in our previous QSAR studies of LLNA skin-sensitization measures.

Humidity compensation of bad-smell sensing system using a detector tube and a built-in camera

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirano, Hiroyuki; Nakamoto, Takamichi

2011-09-01

We developed a low-cost sensing system robust against humidity change for detecting and estimating concentration of bad smell, such as hydrogen sulfide and ammonia. In the previous study, we developed automated measurement system for a gas detector tube using a built-in camera instead of the conventional manual inspection of the gas detector tube. Concentration detectable by the developed system ranges from a few tens of ppb to a few tens of ppm. However, we previously found that the estimated concentration depends not only on actual concentration, but on humidity. Here, we established the method to correct the influence of humidity by creating regression function with its inputs of discoloration rate and humidity. We studied 2 methods (Backpropagation, Radial basis function network) to get regression function and evaluated them. Consequently, the system successfully estimated the concentration on a practical level even when humidity changes.

Mismatch between perceived and objectively measured environmental obesogenic features in European neighbourhoods.

PubMed

Roda, C; Charreire, H; Feuillet, T; Mackenbach, J D; Compernolle, S; Glonti, K; Ben Rebah, M; Bárdos, H; Rutter, H; McKee, M; De Bourdeaudhuij, I; Brug, J; Lakerveld, J; Oppert, J-M

2016-01-01

Findings from research on the association between the built environment and obesity remain equivocal but may be partly explained by differences in approaches used to characterize the built environment. Findings obtained using subjective measures may differ substantially from those measured objectively. We investigated the agreement between perceived and objectively measured obesogenic environmental features to assess (1) the extent of agreement between individual perceptions and observable characteristics of the environment and (2) the agreement between aggregated perceptions and observable characteristics, and whether this varied by type of characteristic, region or neighbourhood. Cross-sectional data from the SPOTLIGHT project (n = 6037 participants from 60 neighbourhoods in five European urban regions) were used. Residents' perceptions were self-reported, and objectively measured environmental features were obtained by a virtual audit using Google Street View. Percent agreement and Kappa statistics were calculated. The mismatch was quantified at neighbourhood level by a distance metric derived from a factor map. The extent to which the mismatch metric varied by region and neighbourhood was examined using linear regression models. Overall, agreement was moderate (agreement < 82%, kappa < 0.3) and varied by obesogenic environmental feature, region and neighbourhood. Highest agreement was found for food outlets and outdoor recreational facilities, and lowest agreement was obtained for aesthetics. In general, a better match was observed in high-residential density neighbourhoods characterized by a high density of food outlets and recreational facilities. Future studies should combine perceived and objectively measured built environment qualities to better understand the potential impact of the built environment on health, particularly in low residential density neighbourhoods. © 2016 World Obesity.

Machine learning modeling of plant phenology based on coupling satellite and gridded meteorological dataset

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Czernecki, Bartosz; Nowosad, Jakub; Jabłońska, Katarzyna

2018-04-01

Changes in the timing of plant phenological phases are important proxies in contemporary climate research. However, most of the commonly used traditional phenological observations do not give any coherent spatial information. While consistent spatial data can be obtained from airborne sensors and preprocessed gridded meteorological data, not many studies robustly benefit from these data sources. Therefore, the main aim of this study is to create and evaluate different statistical models for reconstructing, predicting, and improving quality of phenological phases monitoring with the use of satellite and meteorological products. A quality-controlled dataset of the 13 BBCH plant phenophases in Poland was collected for the period 2007-2014. For each phenophase, statistical models were built using the most commonly applied regression-based machine learning techniques, such as multiple linear regression, lasso, principal component regression, generalized boosted models, and random forest. The quality of the models was estimated using a k-fold cross-validation. The obtained results showed varying potential for coupling meteorological derived indices with remote sensing products in terms of phenological modeling; however, application of both data sources improves models' accuracy from 0.6 to 4.6 day in terms of obtained RMSE. It is shown that a robust prediction of early phenological phases is mostly related to meteorological indices, whereas for autumn phenophases, there is a stronger information signal provided by satellite-derived vegetation metrics. Choosing a specific set of predictors and applying a robust preprocessing procedures is more important for final results than the selection of a particular statistical model. The average RMSE for the best models of all phenophases is 6.3, while the individual RMSE vary seasonally from 3.5 to 10 days. Models give reliable proxy for ground observations with RMSE below 5 days for early spring and late spring phenophases. For other phenophases, RMSE are higher and rise up to 9-10 days in the case of the earliest spring phenophases.

Determination of total phenolic compounds in compost by infrared spectroscopy.

PubMed

Cascant, M M; Sisouane, M; Tahiri, S; Krati, M El; Cervera, M L; Garrigues, S; de la Guardia, M

2016-06-01

Middle and near infrared (MIR and NIR) were applied to determine the total phenolic compounds (TPC) content in compost samples based on models built by using partial least squares (PLS) regression. The multiplicative scatter correction, standard normal variate and first derivative were employed as spectra pretreatment, and the number of latent variable were optimized by leave-one-out cross-validation. The performance of PLS-ATR-MIR and PLS-DR-NIR models was evaluated according to root mean square error of cross validation and prediction (RMSECV and RMSEP), the coefficient of determination for prediction (Rpred(2)) and residual predictive deviation (RPD) being obtained for this latter values of 5.83 and 8.26 for MIR and NIR, respectively. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Performance and model of a full-scale up-flow anaerobic sludge blanket (UASB) to treat the pharmaceutical wastewater containing 6-APA and amoxicillin.

PubMed

Chen, Zhiqiang; Wang, Hongcheng; Chen, Zhaobo; Ren, Nanqi; Wang, Aijie; Shi, Yue; Li, Xiaoming

2011-01-30

A full-scale test was conducted with an up-flow anaerobic sludge blanket (UASB) pre-treating pharmaceutical wastewater containing 6-aminopenicillanic acid (6-APA) and amoxicillin. The aim of the study is to investigate the performance of UASB in the condition of a high chemical oxygen demand (COD) loading rate from 12.57 to 21.02 kgm(-3)d(-1) and a wide pH from 5.57 to 8.26, in order to provide a reference for treating the similar chemical synthetic pharmaceutical wastewater containing 6-APA and amoxicillin. The results demonstrated that the UASB average percentage reduction in COD, 6-APA and amoxicillin were 52.2%, 26.3% and 21.6%, respectively. In addition, three models, built on the back propagation neural network (BPNN) theory and linear regression techniques were developed for the simulation of the UASB system performance in the biodegradation of pharmaceutical wastewater containing 6-APA and amoxicillin. The average error of COD, 6-APA and amoxicillin were -0.63%, 2.19% and 5.40%, respectively. The results indicated that these models built on the BPNN theory were well-fitted to the detected data, and were able to simulate and predict the removal of COD, 6-APA and amoxicillin by UASB. Crown Copyright © 2010. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Prediction of erodibility in Oxisols using iron oxides, soil color and diffuse reflectance spectroscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arantes Camargo, Livia; Marques, José, Jr.

2015-04-01

The prediction of erodibility using indirect methods such as diffuse reflectance spectroscopy could facilitate the characterization of the spatial variability in large areas and optimize implementation of conservation practices. The aim of this study was to evaluate the prediction of interrill erodibility (Ki) and rill erodibility (Kr) by means of iron oxides content and soil color using multiple linear regression and diffuse reflectance spectroscopy (DRS) using regression analysis by least squares partial (PLSR). The soils were collected from three geomorphic surfaces and analyzed for chemical, physical and mineralogical properties, plus scanned in the spectral range from the visible and infrared. Maps of spatial distribution of Ki and Kr were built with the values calculated by the calibrated models that obtained the best accuracy using geostatistics. Interrill-rill erodibility presented negative correlation with iron extracted by dithionite-citrate-bicarbonate, hematite, and chroma, confirming the influence of iron oxides in soil structural stability. Hematite and hue were the attributes that most contributed in calibration models by multiple linear regression for the prediction of Ki (R2 = 0.55) and Kr (R2 = 0.53). The diffuse reflectance spectroscopy via PLSR allowed to predict Interrill-rill erodibility with high accuracy (R2adj = 0.76, 0.81 respectively and RPD> 2.0) in the range of the visible spectrum (380-800 nm) and the characterization of the spatial variability of these attributes by geostatistics.

A longitudinal analysis of the influence of the neighborhood built environment on walking for transportation: the RESIDE study.

PubMed

Knuiman, Matthew W; Christian, Hayley E; Divitini, Mark L; Foster, Sarah A; Bull, Fiona C; Badland, Hannah M; Giles-Corti, Billie

2014-09-01

The purpose of the present analysis was to use longitudinal data collected over 7 years (from 4 surveys) in the Residential Environments (RESIDE) Study (Perth, Australia, 2003-2012) to more carefully examine the relationship of neighborhood walkability and destination accessibility with walking for transportation that has been seen in many cross-sectional studies. We compared effect estimates from 3 types of logistic regression models: 2 that utilize all available data (a population marginal model and a subject-level mixed model) and a third subject-level conditional model that exclusively uses within-person longitudinal evidence. The results support the evidence that neighborhood walkability (especially land-use mix and street connectivity), local access to public transit stops, and variety in the types of local destinations are important determinants of walking for transportation. The similarity of subject-level effect estimates from logistic mixed models and those from conditional logistic models indicates that there is little or no bias from uncontrolled time-constant residential preference (self-selection) factors; however, confounding by uncontrolled time-varying factors, such as health status, remains a possibility. These findings provide policy makers and urban planners with further evidence that certain features of the built environment may be important in the design of neighborhoods to increase walking for transportation and meet the health needs of residents. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Identification and Severity Determination of Wheat Stripe Rust and Wheat Leaf Rust Based on Hyperspectral Data Acquired Using a Black-Paper-Based Measuring Method.

PubMed

Wang, Hui; Qin, Feng; Ruan, Liu; Wang, Rui; Liu, Qi; Ma, Zhanhong; Li, Xiaolong; Cheng, Pei; Wang, Haiguang

2016-01-01

It is important to implement detection and assessment of plant diseases based on remotely sensed data for disease monitoring and control. Hyperspectral data of healthy leaves, leaves in incubation period and leaves in diseased period of wheat stripe rust and wheat leaf rust were collected under in-field conditions using a black-paper-based measuring method developed in this study. After data preprocessing, the models to identify the diseases were built using distinguished partial least squares (DPLS) and support vector machine (SVM), and the disease severity inversion models of stripe rust and the disease severity inversion models of leaf rust were built using quantitative partial least squares (QPLS) and support vector regression (SVR). All the models were validated by using leave-one-out cross validation and external validation. The diseases could be discriminated using both distinguished partial least squares and support vector machine with the accuracies of more than 99%. For each wheat rust, disease severity levels were accurately retrieved using both the optimal QPLS models and the optimal SVR models with the coefficients of determination (R2) of more than 0.90 and the root mean square errors (RMSE) of less than 0.15. The results demonstrated that identification and severity evaluation of stripe rust and leaf rust at the leaf level could be implemented based on the hyperspectral data acquired using the developed method. A scientific basis was provided for implementing disease monitoring by using aerial and space remote sensing technologies.

Identification and Severity Determination of Wheat Stripe Rust and Wheat Leaf Rust Based on Hyperspectral Data Acquired Using a Black-Paper-Based Measuring Method

PubMed Central

Ruan, Liu; Wang, Rui; Liu, Qi; Ma, Zhanhong; Li, Xiaolong; Cheng, Pei; Wang, Haiguang

2016-01-01

It is important to implement detection and assessment of plant diseases based on remotely sensed data for disease monitoring and control. Hyperspectral data of healthy leaves, leaves in incubation period and leaves in diseased period of wheat stripe rust and wheat leaf rust were collected under in-field conditions using a black-paper-based measuring method developed in this study. After data preprocessing, the models to identify the diseases were built using distinguished partial least squares (DPLS) and support vector machine (SVM), and the disease severity inversion models of stripe rust and the disease severity inversion models of leaf rust were built using quantitative partial least squares (QPLS) and support vector regression (SVR). All the models were validated by using leave-one-out cross validation and external validation. The diseases could be discriminated using both distinguished partial least squares and support vector machine with the accuracies of more than 99%. For each wheat rust, disease severity levels were accurately retrieved using both the optimal QPLS models and the optimal SVR models with the coefficients of determination (R2) of more than 0.90 and the root mean square errors (RMSE) of less than 0.15. The results demonstrated that identification and severity evaluation of stripe rust and leaf rust at the leaf level could be implemented based on the hyperspectral data acquired using the developed method. A scientific basis was provided for implementing disease monitoring by using aerial and space remote sensing technologies. PMID:27128464

An Evaluation of Population Density Mapping and Built up Area Estimates in Sri Lanka Using Multiple Methodologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Engstrom, R.; Soundararajan, V.; Newhouse, D.

2017-12-01

In this study we examine how well multiple population density and built up estimates that utilize satellite data compare in Sri Lanka. The population relationship is examined at the Gram Niladhari (GN) level, the lowest administrative unit in Sri Lanka from the 2011 census. For this study we have two spatial domains, the whole country and a 3,500km2 sub-sample, for which we have complete high spatial resolution imagery coverage. For both the entire country and the sub-sample we examine how consistent are the existing publicly available measures of population constructed from satellite imagery at predicting population density? For just the sub-sample we examine how well do a suite of values derived from high spatial resolution satellite imagery predict population density and how does our built up area estimate compare to other publicly available estimates. Population measures were obtained from the Sri Lankan census, and were downloaded from Facebook, WorldPoP, GPW, and Landscan. Percentage built-up area at the GN level was calculated from three sources: Facebook, Global Urban Footprint (GUF), and the Global Human Settlement Layer (GHSL). For the sub-sample we have derived a variety of indicators from the high spatial resolution imagery. Using deep learning convolutional neural networks, an object oriented, and a non-overlapping block, spatial feature approach. Variables calculated include: cars, shadows (a proxy for building height), built up area, and buildings, roof types, roads, type of agriculture, NDVI, Pantex, and Histogram of Oriented Gradients (HOG) and others. Results indicate that population estimates are accurate at the higher, DS Division level but not necessarily at the GN level. Estimates from Facebook correlated well with census population (GN correlation of 0.91) but measures from GPW and WorldPop are more weakly correlated (0.64 and 0.34). Estimates of built-up area appear to be reliable. In the 32 DSD-subsample, Facebook's built- up area measure is highly correlated with our built-up measure (correlation of 0.9). Preliminary regression results based on variables selected from Lasso-regressions indicate that satellite indicators have exceptionally strong predictive power in predicting GN level population level and density with an out of sample r-squared of 0.75 and 0.72 respectively.

Evaluating the sources of water to wells: Three techniques for metamodeling of a groundwater flow model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fienen, Michael N.; Nolan, Bernard T.; Feinstein, Daniel T.

2016-01-01

For decision support, the insights and predictive power of numerical process models can be hampered by insufficient expertise and computational resources required to evaluate system response to new stresses. An alternative is to emulate the process model with a statistical “metamodel.” Built on a dataset of collocated numerical model input and output, a groundwater flow model was emulated using a Bayesian Network, an Artificial neural network, and a Gradient Boosted Regression Tree. The response of interest was surface water depletion expressed as the source of water-to-wells. The results have application for managing allocation of groundwater. Each technique was tuned using cross validation and further evaluated using a held-out dataset. A numerical MODFLOW-USG model of the Lake Michigan Basin, USA, was used for the evaluation. The performance and interpretability of each technique was compared pointing to advantages of each technique. The metamodel can extend to unmodeled areas.

Parental perception of built environment characteristics and built environment use among Latino families: a cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Heerman, William J; Mitchell, Stephanie J; Thompson, Jessica; Martin, Nina C; Sommer, Evan C; van Bakergem, Margaret; Taylor, Julie Lounds; Buchowski, Maciej S; Barkin, Shari L

2016-11-22

Perception of undesirable features may inhibit built environment use for physical activity among underserved families with children at risk for obesity. To examine the association of perceived availability, condition, and safety of the built environment with its self-reported use for physical activity, we conducted a cross-sectional analysis on baseline data from a randomized controlled trial. Adjusted Poisson regression was used to test the association between the primary independent variables (perceived availability, physical condition, and safety) with the primary outcome of self-reported use of built environment structures. Among 610 parents (90% Latino) of preschool-age children, 158 (26%) reported that there were no available built environment structures for physical activity in the neighborhood. The use of built environment structures was associated with the perceived number of available structures (B = 0.34, 95% CI 0.31, 0.37, p < 0.001) and their perceived condition (B = 0.19, 95% CI 0.12, 0.27, p = 0.001), but not with perceived safety (B = 0.00, 95% CI -0.01, 0.01, p = 0.7). In this sample of underserved families, perceived availability and condition of built environment structures were associated with use rather than perceived safety. To encourage physical activity among underserved families, communities need to invest in the condition and availability of built environment structures. Registered at ClinicalTrials.gov ( NCT01316653 ) on March 11, 2011.

Identifying built environmental patterns using cluster analysis and GIS: Relationships with walking, cycling and body mass index in French adults

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Socio-ecological models suggest that both individual and neighborhood characteristics contribute to facilitating health-enhancing behaviors such as physical activity. Few European studies have explored relationships between local built environmental characteristics, recreational walking and cycling and weight status in adults. The aim of this study was to identify built environmental patterns in a French urban context and to assess associations with recreational walking and cycling behaviors as performed by middle-aged adult residents. Methods We used a two-step procedure based on cluster analysis to identify built environmental patterns in the region surrounding Paris, France, using measures derived from Geographic Information Systems databases on green spaces, proximity facilities (destinations) and cycle paths. Individual data were obtained from participants in the SU.VI.MAX cohort; 1,309 participants residing in the Ile-de-France in 2007 were included in this analysis. Associations between built environment patterns, leisure walking/cycling data (h/week) and measured weight status were assessed using multinomial logistic regression with adjustment for individual and neighborhood characteristics. Results Based on accessibility to green spaces, proximity facilities and availability of cycle paths, seven built environmental patterns were identified. The geographic distribution of built environmental patterns in the Ile-de-France showed that a pattern characterized by poor spatial accessibility to green spaces and proximity facilities and an absence of cycle paths was found only in neighborhoods in the outer suburbs, whereas patterns characterized by better spatial accessibility to green spaces, proximity facilities and cycle paths were more evenly distributed across the region. Compared to the reference pattern (poor accessibility to green areas and facilities, absence of cycle paths), subjects residing in neighborhoods characterized by high accessibility to green areas and local facilities and by a high density of cycle paths were more likely to walk/cycle, after adjustment for individual and neighborhood sociodemographic characteristics (OR = 2.5 95%CI 1.4-4.6). Body mass index did not differ across patterns. Conclusions Built environmental patterns were associated with walking and cycling among French adults. These analyses may be useful in determining urban and public health policies aimed at promoting a healthy lifestyle. PMID:22620266

The As-Cu-Ni System: A Chemical Thermodynamic Model for Ancient Recycling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sabatini, Benjamin J.

2015-12-01

This article is the first thermodynamically reasoned ancient metal system assessment intended for use by archaeologists and archaeometallurgists to aid in the interpretation of remelted/recycled copper alloys composed of arsenic and copper, and arsenic, copper, and nickel. These models are meant to fulfill two main purposes: first, to be applied toward the identification of progressive and regressive temporal changes in artifact chemistry that would have occurred due to recycling, and second, to provide thermodynamic insight into why such metal combinations existed in antiquity. Built on well-established thermodynamics, these models were created using a combination of custom-written software and published binary thermodynamic systems data adjusted to within the boundary conditions of 1200°C and 1 atm. Using these parameters, the behavior of each element and their likelihood of loss in the binaries As-Cu, As-Ni, Cu-Ni, and ternary As-Cu-Ni, systems, under assumed ancient furnace conditions, was determined.

Self-organization comprehensive real-time state evaluation model for oil pump unit on the basis of operating condition classification and recognition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, Wei; Yu, Xuchao; Zhang, Laibin; Lu, Wenqing

2018-05-01

In oil transmission station, the operating condition (OC) of an oil pump unit sometimes switches accordingly, which will lead to changes in operating parameters. If not taking the switching of OCs into consideration while performing a state evaluation on the pump unit, the accuracy of evaluation would be largely influenced. Hence, in this paper, a self-organization Comprehensive Real-Time State Evaluation Model (self-organization CRTSEM) is proposed based on OC classification and recognition. However, the underlying model CRTSEM is built through incorporating the advantages of Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Model (FCEM) first. That is to say, independent state models are established for every state characteristic parameter according to their distribution types (i.e. the Gaussian distribution and logistic regression distribution). Meanwhile, Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is utilized to calculate the weights of state characteristic parameters. Then, the OC classification is determined by the types of oil delivery tasks, and CRTSEMs of different standard OCs are built to constitute the CRTSEM matrix. On the other side, the OC recognition is realized by a self-organization model that is established on the basis of Back Propagation (BP) model. After the self-organization CRTSEM is derived through integration, real-time monitoring data can be inputted for OC recognition. At the end, the current state of the pump unit can be evaluated by using the right CRTSEM. The case study manifests that the proposed self-organization CRTSEM can provide reasonable and accurate state evaluation results for the pump unit. Besides, the assumption that the switching of OCs will influence the results of state evaluation is also verified.

Municipal Officials' Participation in Built Environment Policy Development in the United States.

PubMed

Lemon, Stephenie C; Goins, Karin Valentine; Schneider, Kristin L; Brownson, Ross C; Valko, Cheryl A; Evenson, Kelly R; Eyler, Amy A; Heinrich, Katie M; Litt, Jill; Lyn, Rodney; Reed, Hannah L; Tompkins, Nancy O'Hara; Maddock, Jay

2015-01-01

This study examined municipal officials' participation in built environment policy initiatives focused on land use design, transportation, and parks and recreation. Web-based cross-sectional survey. Eighty-three municipalities with 50,000 or more residents in eight states. Four hundred fifty-three elected and appointed municipal officials. Outcomes included self-reported participation in land use design, transportation, and parks and recreation policy to increase physical activity. Independent variables included respondent position; perceptions of importance, barriers, and beliefs regarding physical activity and community design and layout; and physical activity partnership participation. Multivariable logistic regression models. Compared to other positions, public health officials had lower participation in land use design (78.3% vs. 29.0%), transportation (78.1% vs. 42.1%), and parks and recreation (67.1% vs. 26.3%) policy. Perceived limited staff was negatively associated with participation in each policy initiative. Perceptions of the extent to which physical activity was considered in community design and physical activity partnership participation were positively associated with participation in each. Perceived lack of collaboration was associated with less land use design and transportation policy participation, and awareness that community design affects physical activity was associated with more participation. Perceived lack of political will was associated with less parks and recreation policy participation. Public health officials are underrepresented in built environment policy initiatives. Improving collaborations may improve municipal officials' policy participation.

Subject-specific body segment parameter estimation using 3D photogrammetry with multiple cameras

PubMed Central

Morris, Mark; Sellers, William I.

2015-01-01

Inertial properties of body segments, such as mass, centre of mass or moments of inertia, are important parameters when studying movements of the human body. However, these quantities are not directly measurable. Current approaches include using regression models which have limited accuracy: geometric models with lengthy measuring procedures or acquiring and post-processing MRI scans of participants. We propose a geometric methodology based on 3D photogrammetry using multiple cameras to provide subject-specific body segment parameters while minimizing the interaction time with the participants. A low-cost body scanner was built using multiple cameras and 3D point cloud data generated using structure from motion photogrammetric reconstruction algorithms. The point cloud was manually separated into body segments, and convex hulling applied to each segment to produce the required geometric outlines. The accuracy of the method can be adjusted by choosing the number of subdivisions of the body segments. The body segment parameters of six participants (four male and two female) are presented using the proposed method. The multi-camera photogrammetric approach is expected to be particularly suited for studies including populations for which regression models are not available in literature and where other geometric techniques or MRI scanning are not applicable due to time or ethical constraints. PMID:25780778

Subject-specific body segment parameter estimation using 3D photogrammetry with multiple cameras.

PubMed

Peyer, Kathrin E; Morris, Mark; Sellers, William I

2015-01-01

Inertial properties of body segments, such as mass, centre of mass or moments of inertia, are important parameters when studying movements of the human body. However, these quantities are not directly measurable. Current approaches include using regression models which have limited accuracy: geometric models with lengthy measuring procedures or acquiring and post-processing MRI scans of participants. We propose a geometric methodology based on 3D photogrammetry using multiple cameras to provide subject-specific body segment parameters while minimizing the interaction time with the participants. A low-cost body scanner was built using multiple cameras and 3D point cloud data generated using structure from motion photogrammetric reconstruction algorithms. The point cloud was manually separated into body segments, and convex hulling applied to each segment to produce the required geometric outlines. The accuracy of the method can be adjusted by choosing the number of subdivisions of the body segments. The body segment parameters of six participants (four male and two female) are presented using the proposed method. The multi-camera photogrammetric approach is expected to be particularly suited for studies including populations for which regression models are not available in literature and where other geometric techniques or MRI scanning are not applicable due to time or ethical constraints.

Identification and quantification of ciprofloxacin in urine through excitation-emission fluorescence and three-way PARAFAC calibration.

PubMed

Ortiz, M C; Sarabia, L A; Sánchez, M S; Giménez, D

2009-05-29

Due to the second-order advantage, calibration models based on parallel factor analysis (PARAFAC) decomposition of three-way data are becoming important in routine analysis. This work studies the possibility of fitting PARAFAC models with excitation-emission fluorescence data for the determination of ciprofloxacin in human urine. The finally chosen PARAFAC decomposition is built with calibration samples spiked with ciprofloxacin, and with other series of urine samples that were also spiked. One of the series of samples has also another drug because the patient was taking mesalazine. The mesalazine is a fluorescent substance that interferes with the ciprofloxacin. Finally, the procedure is applied to samples of a patient who was being treated with ciprofloxacin. The trueness has been established by the regression "predicted concentration versus added concentration". The recovery factor is 88.3% for ciprofloxacin in urine, and the mean of the absolute value of the relative errors is 4.2% for 46 test samples. The multivariate sensitivity of the fit calibration model is evaluated by a regression between the loadings of PARAFAC linked to ciprofloxacin versus the true concentration in spiked samples. The multivariate capability of discrimination is near 8 microg L(-1) when the probabilities of false non-compliance and false compliance are fixed at 5%.

Neighbourhood walkability, leisure-time and transport-related physical activity in a mixed urban-rural area.

PubMed

de Sa, Eric; Ardern, Chris I

2014-01-01

Objectives. To develop a walkability index specific to mixed rural/suburban areas, and to explore the relationship between walkability scores and leisure time physical activity. Methods. Respondents were geocoded with 500 m and 1,000 m buffer zones around each address. A walkability index was derived from intersections, residential density, and land-use mix according to built environment measures. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to quantify the association between the index and physical activity levels. Analyses used cross-sectional data from the 2007-2008 Canadian Community Health Survey (n = 1158; ≥18 y). Results. Respondents living in highly walkable 500 m buffer zones (upper quartiles of the walkability index) were more likely to walk or cycle for leisure than those living in low-walkable buffer zones (quartile 1). When a 1,000 m buffer zone was applied, respondents in more walkable neighbourhoods were more likely to walk or cycle for both leisure-time and transport-related purposes. Conclusion. Developing a walkability index can assist in exploring the associations between measures of the built environment and physical activity to prioritize neighborhood change.

Psychological Delaying Model of Bicycle Passing Events on Physically Separated Bicycle Roadways in China*

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, De; Wang, Wei; Li, Zhibin; Shan, Xiaonian; Sun, Xin

Bicycle facilities are quite common in China but there are not enough quantitative methods to evaluate the Level of Service (LOS) of bicycle roadways. The number of passing events, which considers the interactions between bicyclists, has been proved to be a proper indicator for evaluating bicycle LOS under the special traffic and roadway conditions in China. The primary objective of this study is to propose a model considering the delay effects of passing events and rider's overtaking motivation. Field data was collected on South Zhongshan Road and Huaihai Road in Nanjing city of China with 639 bicyclists investigated. Then a new mathematical model was built to evaluate those effects through probability and regression analyses. It was found that the delay effect of passing events and rider's overtaking motivation are significant influencing factors which cannot be omitted. Correlation test shows the fitted relationship is greater between the model prediction and field data comparing with the previous model.

Predicting macroinvertebrate MMI for geographic targeting

EPA Science Inventory

The US Environmental Protection Agency surveys the ecological conditions of streams across broad regions. We wish to identify specific streams in poor condition, as well as their regional extent. To identify such streams in Idaho, Oregon and Washington we built multiple regress...

Characterization and spatial modeling of urban sprawl in the Wuhan Metropolitan Area, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeng, Chen; Liu, Yaolin; Stein, Alfred; Jiao, Limin

2015-02-01

Urban sprawl has led to environmental problems and large losses of arable land in China. In this study, we monitor and model urban sprawl by means of a combination of remote sensing, geographical information system and spatial statistics. We use time-series data to explore the potential socio-economic driving forces behind urban sprawl, and spatial models in different scenarios to explore the spatio-temporal interactions. The methodology is applied to the city of Wuhan, China, for the period from 1990 to 2013. The results reveal that the built-up land has expanded and has dispersed in urban clusters. Population growth, and economic and transportation development are still the main causes of urban sprawl; however, when they have developed to certain levels, the area affected by construction in urban areas (Jian Cheng Qu (JCQ)) and the area of cultivated land (ACL) tend to be stable. Spatial regression models are shown to be superior to the traditional models. The interaction among districts with the same administrative status is stronger than if one of those neighbors is in the city center and the other in the suburban area. The expansion of urban built-up land is driven by the socio-economic development at the same period, and greatly influenced by its spatio-temporal neighbors. We conclude that the integration of remote sensing, a geographical information system, and spatial statistics offers an excellent opportunity to explore the spatio-temporal variation and interactions among the districts in the sprawling metropolitan areas. Relevant regulations to control the urban sprawl process are suggested accordingly.

A SAR and QSAR study of new artemisinin compounds with antimalarial activity.

PubMed

Santos, Cleydson Breno R; Vieira, Josinete B; Lobato, Cleison C; Hage-Melim, Lorane I S; Souto, Raimundo N P; Lima, Clarissa S; Costa, Elizabeth V M; Brasil, Davi S B; Macêdo, Williams Jorge C; Carvalho, José Carlos T

2013-12-30

The Hartree-Fock method and the 6-31G** basis set were employed to calculate the molecular properties of artemisinin and 20 derivatives with antimalarial activity. Maps of molecular electrostatic potential (MEPs) and molecular docking were used to investigate the interaction between ligands and the receptor (heme). Principal component analysis and hierarchical cluster analysis were employed to select the most important descriptors related to activity. The correlation between biological activity and molecular properties was obtained using the partial least squares and principal component regression methods. The regression PLS and PCR models built in this study were also used to predict the antimalarial activity of 30 new artemisinin compounds with unknown activity. The models obtained showed not only statistical significance but also predictive ability. The significant molecular descriptors related to the compounds with antimalarial activity were the hydration energy (HE), the charge on the O11 oxygen atom (QO11), the torsion angle O1-O2-Fe-N2 (D2) and the maximum rate of R/Sanderson Electronegativity (RTe+). These variables led to a physical and structural explanation of the molecular properties that should be selected for when designing new ligands to be used as antimalarial agents.

Modelling landscape change in paddy fields using logistic regression and GIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Franjaya, E. E.; Syartinilia; Setiawan, Y.

2018-05-01

Paddy field in karawang district, as an important agricultural land in west java, has been decreased since 1994. From previous study, paddy fields dominantly turned into built area. The changes were almost occured in the middle area of the district where roadways, industries, settlements, and commercial buildings were existed. These were estimated as driving forces. But, we still need to prove it. This study aimed to construct the paddy field probability change model, subsequently the driving forces will be obtained. GIS combined with logistic regression using environmental variables were used as main method in this study. Ten environmental variables were elevation 0–500 m, elevation>500 m, slope<8%, slope>8%, CBD, build up area, river, irrigation, toll and national roadway, and collector and local roadway. The result indicated that four variables were significantly played as driving forces (slope>8%, CBD area, build up area, and collector and local roadway). Paddy field has high, medium, and low probability to change which covered about 27.8%, 7.8%, and 64.4% area in Karawang respectively. Based on landscape ecology, the recommendation that suitable with landscape change is adaptive management.

40 CFR 86.401-97 - General applicability.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... applies to 1978 and later model year, new, gasoline-fueled motorcycles built after 31 December, 1977, and to 1990 and later model year, new, methanol-fueled motorcycles built after 31 December, 1989 and to 1997 and later model year, new, natural gas-fueled and liquefied petroleum gas-fueled motorcycles built...

40 CFR 86.401-2006 - General applicability.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... applies to 1978 and later model year, new, gasoline-fueled motorcycles built after December 31, 1977, and to 1990 and later model year, new methanol-fueled motorcycles built after December 31, 1989 and to 1997 and later model year, new natural gas-fueled and liquefied petroleum gas-fueled motorcycles built...

Regional estimation of extreme suspended sediment concentrations using watershed characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tramblay, Yves; Ouarda, Taha B. M. J.; St-Hilaire, André; Poulin, Jimmy

2010-01-01

SummaryThe number of stations monitoring daily suspended sediment concentration (SSC) has been decreasing since the 1980s in North America while suspended sediment is considered as a key variable for water quality. The objective of this study is to test the feasibility of regionalising extreme SSC, i.e. estimating SSC extremes values for ungauged basins. Annual maximum SSC for 72 rivers in Canada and USA were modelled with probability distributions in order to estimate quantiles corresponding to different return periods. Regionalisation techniques, originally developed for flood prediction in ungauged basins, were tested using the climatic, topographic, land cover and soils attributes of the watersheds. Two approaches were compared, using either physiographic characteristics or seasonality of extreme SSC to delineate the regions. Multiple regression models to estimate SSC quantiles as a function of watershed characteristics were built in each region, and compared to a global model including all sites. Regional estimates of SSC quantiles were compared with the local values. Results show that regional estimation of extreme SSC is more efficient than a global regression model including all sites. Groups/regions of stations have been identified, using either the watershed characteristics or the seasonality of occurrence for extreme SSC values providing a method to better describe the extreme events of SSC. The most important variables for predicting extreme SSC are the percentage of clay in the soils, precipitation intensity and forest cover.

Integrated Cox's model for predicting survival time of glioblastoma multiforme.

PubMed

Ai, Zhibing; Li, Longti; Fu, Rui; Lu, Jing-Min; He, Jing-Dong; Li, Sen

2017-04-01

Glioblastoma multiforme is the most common primary brain tumor and is highly lethal. This study aims to figure out signatures for predicting the survival time of patients with glioblastoma multiforme. Clinical information, messenger RNA expression, microRNA expression, and single-nucleotide polymorphism array data of patients with glioblastoma multiforme were retrieved from The Cancer Genome Atlas. Patients were separated into two groups by using 1 year as a cutoff, and a logistic regression model was used to figure out any variables that can predict whether the patient was able to live longer than 1 year. Furthermore, Cox's model was used to find out features that were correlated with the survival time. Finally, a Cox model integrated the significant clinical variables, messenger RNA expression, microRNA expression, and single-nucleotide polymorphism was built. Although the classification method failed, signatures of clinical features, messenger RNA expression levels, and microRNA expression levels were figured out by using Cox's model. However, no single-nucleotide polymorphisms related to prognosis were found. The selected clinical features were age at initial diagnosis, Karnofsky score, and race, all of which had been suggested to correlate with survival time. Both of the two significant microRNAs, microRNA-221 and microRNA-222, were targeted to p27 Kip1 protein, which implied the important role of p27 Kip1 on the prognosis of glioblastoma multiforme patients. Our results suggested that survival modeling was more suitable than classification to figure out prognostic biomarkers for patients with glioblastoma multiforme. An integrated model containing clinical features, messenger RNA levels, and microRNA expression levels was built, which has the potential to be used in clinics and thus to improve the survival status of glioblastoma multiforme patients.

Alternative configurations of Quantile Regression for estimating predictive uncertainty in water level forecasts for the Upper Severn River: a comparison

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lopez, Patricia; Verkade, Jan; Weerts, Albrecht; Solomatine, Dimitri

2014-05-01

Hydrological forecasting is subject to many sources of uncertainty, including those originating in initial state, boundary conditions, model structure and model parameters. Although uncertainty can be reduced, it can never be fully eliminated. Statistical post-processing techniques constitute an often used approach to estimate the hydrological predictive uncertainty, where a model of forecast error is built using a historical record of past forecasts and observations. The present study focuses on the use of the Quantile Regression (QR) technique as a hydrological post-processor. It estimates the predictive distribution of water levels using deterministic water level forecasts as predictors. This work aims to thoroughly verify uncertainty estimates using the implementation of QR that was applied in an operational setting in the UK National Flood Forecasting System, and to inter-compare forecast quality and skill in various, differing configurations of QR. These configurations are (i) 'classical' QR, (ii) QR constrained by a requirement that quantiles do not cross, (iii) QR derived on time series that have been transformed into the Normal domain (Normal Quantile Transformation - NQT), and (iv) a piecewise linear derivation of QR models. The QR configurations are applied to fourteen hydrological stations on the Upper Severn River with different catchments characteristics. Results of each QR configuration are conditionally verified for progressively higher flood levels, in terms of commonly used verification metrics and skill scores. These include Brier's probability score (BS), the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) and corresponding skill scores as well as the Relative Operating Characteristic score (ROCS). Reliability diagrams are also presented and analysed. The results indicate that none of the four Quantile Regression configurations clearly outperforms the others.

Comparison of Multiple Linear Regressions and Neural Networks based QSAR models for the design of new antitubercular compounds.

PubMed

Ventura, Cristina; Latino, Diogo A R S; Martins, Filomena

2013-01-01

The performance of two QSAR methodologies, namely Multiple Linear Regressions (MLR) and Neural Networks (NN), towards the modeling and prediction of antitubercular activity was evaluated and compared. A data set of 173 potentially active compounds belonging to the hydrazide family and represented by 96 descriptors was analyzed. Models were built with Multiple Linear Regressions (MLR), single Feed-Forward Neural Networks (FFNNs), ensembles of FFNNs and Associative Neural Networks (AsNNs) using four different data sets and different types of descriptors. The predictive ability of the different techniques used were assessed and discussed on the basis of different validation criteria and results show in general a better performance of AsNNs in terms of learning ability and prediction of antitubercular behaviors when compared with all other methods. MLR have, however, the advantage of pinpointing the most relevant molecular characteristics responsible for the behavior of these compounds against Mycobacterium tuberculosis. The best results for the larger data set (94 compounds in training set and 18 in test set) were obtained with AsNNs using seven descriptors (R(2) of 0.874 and RMSE of 0.437 against R(2) of 0.845 and RMSE of 0.472 in MLRs, for test set). Counter-Propagation Neural Networks (CPNNs) were trained with the same data sets and descriptors. From the scrutiny of the weight levels in each CPNN and the information retrieved from MLRs, a rational design of potentially active compounds was attempted. Two new compounds were synthesized and tested against M. tuberculosis showing an activity close to that predicted by the majority of the models. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

The Association Between Internet Use and Ambulatory Care-Seeking Behaviors in Taiwan: A Cross-Sectional Study

PubMed Central

Chen, Tsung-Fu; Liang, Jyh-Chong; Lin, Tzu-Bin; Tsai, Chin-Chung

2016-01-01

Background Compared with the traditional ways of gaining health-related information from newspapers, magazines, radio, and television, the Internet is inexpensive, accessible, and conveys diverse opinions. Several studies on how increasing Internet use affected outpatient clinic visits were inconclusive. Objective The objective of this study was to examine the role of Internet use on ambulatory care-seeking behaviors as indicated by the number of outpatient clinic visits after adjusting for confounding variables. Methods We conducted this study using a sample randomly selected from the general population in Taiwan. To handle the missing data, we built a multivariate logistic regression model for propensity score matching using age and sex as the independent variables. The questionnaires with no missing data were then included in a multivariate linear regression model for examining the association between Internet use and outpatient clinic visits. Results We included a sample of 293 participants who answered the questionnaire with no missing data in the multivariate linear regression model. We found that Internet use was significantly associated with more outpatient clinic visits (P=.04). The participants with chronic diseases tended to make more outpatient clinic visits (P<.01). Conclusions The inconsistent quality of health-related information obtained from the Internet may be associated with patients’ increasing need for interpreting and discussing the information with health care professionals, thus resulting in an increasing number of outpatient clinic visits. In addition, the media literacy of Web-based health-related information seekers may also affect their ambulatory care-seeking behaviors, such as outpatient clinic visits. PMID:27927606

Prediction of the Main Engine Power of a New Container Ship at the Preliminary Design Stage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cepowski, Tomasz

2017-06-01

The paper presents mathematical relationships that allow us to forecast the estimated main engine power of new container ships, based on data concerning vessels built in 2005-2015. The presented approximations allow us to estimate the engine power based on the length between perpendiculars and the number of containers the ship will carry. The approximations were developed using simple linear regression and multivariate linear regression analysis. The presented relations have practical application for estimation of container ship engine power needed in preliminary parametric design of the ship. It follows from the above that the use of multiple linear regression to predict the main engine power of a container ship brings more accurate solutions than simple linear regression.

[Hyperspectral remote sensing in monitoring the vegetation heavy metal pollution].

PubMed

Li, Na; Lü, Jian-sheng; Altemann, W

2010-09-01

Mine exploitation aggravates the environment pollution. The large amount of heavy metal element in the drainage of slag from the mine pollutes the soil seriously, doing harm to the vegetation growing and human health. The investigation of mining environment pollution is urgent, in which remote sensing, as a new technique, helps a lot. In the present paper, copper mine in Dexing was selected as the study area and China sumac as the study plant. Samples and spectral data in field were gathered and analyzed in lab. The regression model from spectral characteristics for heavy metal content was built, and the feasibility of hyperspectral remote sensing in environment pollution monitoring was testified.

The Influencing Factor Analysis on the Performance Evaluation of Assembly Line Balancing Problem Level 1 (SALBP-1) Based on ANOVA Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Jie; Hu, Jiangnan

2017-06-01

Industry 4.0 and lean production has become the focus of manufacturing. A current issue is to analyse the performance of the assembly line balancing. This study focus on distinguishing the factors influencing the assembly line balancing. The one-way ANOVA method is applied to explore the significant degree of distinguished factors. And regression model is built to find key points. The maximal task time (tmax ), the quantity of tasks (n), and degree of convergence of precedence graph (conv) are critical for the performance of assembly line balancing. The conclusion will do a favor to the lean production in the manufacturing.

Direct and Indirect Associations Between the Built Environment and Leisure and Utilitarian Walking in Older Women.

PubMed

Troped, Philip J; Tamura, Kosuke; McDonough, Meghan H; Starnes, Heather A; James, Peter; Ben-Joseph, Eran; Cromley, Ellen; Puett, Robin; Melly, Steven J; Laden, Francine

2017-04-01

The built environment predicts walking in older adults, but the degree to which associations between the objective built environment and walking for different purposes are mediated by environmental perceptions is unknown. We examined associations between the neighborhood built environment and leisure and utilitarian walking and mediation by the perceived environment among older women. Women (N = 2732, M age  = 72.8 ± 6.8 years) from Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, and California completed a neighborhood built environment and walking survey. Objective population and intersection density and density of stores and services variables were created within residential buffers. Perceived built environment variables included measures of land use mix, street connectivity, infrastructure for walking, esthetics, traffic safety, and personal safety. Regression and bootstrapping were used to test associations and indirect effects. Objective population, stores/services, and intersection density indirectly predicted leisure and utilitarian walking via perceived land use mix (odds ratios (ORs) = 1.01-1.08, 95 % bias corrected and accelerated confidence intervals do not include 1). Objective density of stores/services directly predicted ≥150 min utilitarian walking (OR = 1.11; 95% CI = 1.02, 1.22). Perceived land use mix (ORs = 1.16-1.44) and esthetics (ORs = 1.24-1.61) significantly predicted leisure and utilitarian walking, CONCLUSIONS: Perceived built environment mediated associations between objective built environment variables and walking for leisure and utilitarian purposes. Interventions for older adults should take into account how objective built environment characteristics may influence environmental perceptions and walking.

Association between perceived urban built environment attributes and leisure-time physical activity among adults in Hangzhou, China.

PubMed

Su, Meng; Tan, Ya-Yun; Liu, Qing-Min; Ren, Yan-Jun; Kawachi, Ichiro; Li, Li-Ming; Lv, Jun

2014-09-01

Neighborhood built environment may influence residents' physical activity, which in turn, affects their health. This study aimed to determine the associations between perceived built environment and leisure-time physical activity in Hangzhou, China. 1440 participants aged 25-59 were randomly selected from 30 neighborhoods in three types of administrative planning units in Hangzhou. International Physical Activity Questionnaire long form and NEWS-A were used to obtain individual-level data. The China Urban Built Environment Scan Tool was used to objectively assess the neighborhood-level built environment. Multi-level regression was used to explore the relationship between perceived built environment variables and leisure-time physical activities. Data was collected in Hangzhou from June to December in 2012, and was analyzed in May 2013. Significant difference between neighborhood random variations in physical activity was identified (P=0.0134); neighborhood-level differences accounted for 3.0% of the variability in leisure-time physical activity. Male residents who perceived higher scores on access to physical activity destinations reported more involvement in leisure-time physical activity. Higher scores on perception of esthetic quality, and lower on residential density were associated with more time in leisure-time walking in women. The present study demonstrated that perceived urban built environment attributes significantly correlate with leisure-time physical activity in Hangzhou, China. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Short- and Long-Term Impacts of Neighborhood Built Environment on Self-Rated Health of Older Adults.

PubMed

Spring, Amy

2018-01-18

Proximity to health care, healthy foods, and recreation is linked to improved health in older adults while deterioration of the built environment is a risk factor for poor health. Yet, it remains unclear whether individuals prone to good health self-select into favorable built environments and how long-term exposure to deteriorated environments impacts health. This study uses a longitudinal framework to address these questions. The study analyzes 3,240 Americans aged 45 or older from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics with good self-reported health at baseline, and follows them from 1999 to 2013. At each biennial survey wave, individual data are combined with data on services in the neighborhood of residence (defined as the zip code) from the Economic Census. The analysis overcomes the problem of residential self-selection by employing marginal structural models and inverse probability of treatment weights. Logistic regression estimates indicate that long-term exposure to neighborhood built environments that lack health-supportive services (e.g., physicians, pharmacies, grocery stores, senior centers, and recreational facilities) and are commercially declined (i.e., have a high density of liquor stores, pawn shops, and fast food outlets) increases the risk of fair/poor self-rated health compared to more average neighborhoods. Short-term exposure to the same environments as compared to average neighborhoods has no bearing on self-rated health after adjusting for self-selection. Results highlight the importance of expanding individuals' access to health-supportive services prior to their reaching old age, and expanding access for people unlikely to attain residence in service-dense neighborhoods. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Indiana chronic disease management program risk stratification analysis.

PubMed

Li, Jingjin; Holmes, Ann M; Rosenman, Marc B; Katz, Barry P; Downs, Stephen M; Murray, Michael D; Ackermann, Ronald T; Inui, Thomas S

2005-10-01

The objective of this study was to compare the ability of risk stratification models derived from administrative data to classify groups of patients for enrollment in a tailored chronic disease management program. This study included 19,548 Medicaid patients with chronic heart failure or diabetes in the Indiana Medicaid data warehouse during 2001 and 2002. To predict costs (total claims paid) in FY 2002, we considered candidate predictor variables available in FY 2001, including patient characteristics, the number and type of prescription medications, laboratory tests, pharmacy charges, and utilization of primary, specialty, inpatient, emergency department, nursing home, and home health care. We built prospective models to identify patients with different levels of expenditure. Model fit was assessed using R statistics, whereas discrimination was assessed using the weighted kappa statistic, predictive ratios, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. We found a simple least-squares regression model in which logged total charges in FY 2002 were regressed on the log of total charges in FY 2001, the number of prescriptions filled in FY 2001, and the FY 2001 eligibility category, performed as well as more complex models. This simple 3-parameter model had an R of 0.30 and, in terms in classification efficiency, had a sensitivity of 0.57, a specificity of 0.90, an area under the receiver operator curve of 0.80, and a weighted kappa statistic of 0.51. This simple model based on readily available administrative data stratified Medicaid members according to predicted future utilization as well as more complicated models.

Epidemiology of Mild Traumatic Brain Injury with Intracranial Hemorrhage: Focusing Predictive Models for Neurosurgical Intervention.

PubMed

Orlando, Alessandro; Levy, A Stewart; Carrick, Matthew M; Tanner, Allen; Mains, Charles W; Bar-Or, David

2017-11-01

To outline differences in neurosurgical intervention (NI) rates between intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) types in mild traumatic brain injuries and help identify which ICH types are most likely to benefit from creation of predictive models for NI. A multicenter retrospective study of adult patients spanning 3 years at 4 U.S. trauma centers was performed. Patients were included if they presented with mild traumatic brain injury (Glasgow Coma Scale score 13-15) with head CT scan positive for ICH. Patients were excluded for skull fractures, "unspecified hemorrhage," or coagulopathy. Primary outcome was NI. Stepwise multivariable logistic regression models were built to analyze the independent association between ICH variables and outcome measures. The study comprised 1876 patients. NI rate was 6.7%. There was a significant difference in rate of NI by ICH type. Subdural hematomas had the highest rate of NI (15.5%) and accounted for 78% of all NIs. Isolated subarachnoid hemorrhages had the lowest, nonzero, NI rate (0.19%). Logistic regression models identified ICH type as the most influential independent variable when examining NI. A model predicting NI for isolated subarachnoid hemorrhages would require 26,928 patients, but a model predicting NI for isolated subdural hematomas would require only 328 patients. This study highlighted disparate NI rates among ICH types in patients with mild traumatic brain injury and identified mild, isolated subdural hematomas as most appropriate for construction of predictive NI models. Increased health care efficiency will be driven by accurate understanding of risk, which can come only from accurate predictive models. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Comparison of machine-learning algorithms to build a predictive model for detecting undiagnosed diabetes - ELSA-Brasil: accuracy study.

PubMed

Olivera, André Rodrigues; Roesler, Valter; Iochpe, Cirano; Schmidt, Maria Inês; Vigo, Álvaro; Barreto, Sandhi Maria; Duncan, Bruce Bartholow

2017-01-01

Type 2 diabetes is a chronic disease associated with a wide range of serious health complications that have a major impact on overall health. The aims here were to develop and validate predictive models for detecting undiagnosed diabetes using data from the Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil) and to compare the performance of different machine-learning algorithms in this task. Comparison of machine-learning algorithms to develop predictive models using data from ELSA-Brasil. After selecting a subset of 27 candidate variables from the literature, models were built and validated in four sequential steps: (i) parameter tuning with tenfold cross-validation, repeated three times; (ii) automatic variable selection using forward selection, a wrapper strategy with four different machine-learning algorithms and tenfold cross-validation (repeated three times), to evaluate each subset of variables; (iii) error estimation of model parameters with tenfold cross-validation, repeated ten times; and (iv) generalization testing on an independent dataset. The models were created with the following machine-learning algorithms: logistic regression, artificial neural network, naïve Bayes, K-nearest neighbor and random forest. The best models were created using artificial neural networks and logistic regression. -These achieved mean areas under the curve of, respectively, 75.24% and 74.98% in the error estimation step and 74.17% and 74.41% in the generalization testing step. Most of the predictive models produced similar results, and demonstrated the feasibility of identifying individuals with highest probability of having undiagnosed diabetes, through easily-obtained clinical data.

Mapping and spatial-temporal modeling of Bromus tectorum invasion in central Utah

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jin, Zhenyu

Cheatgrass, or Downy Brome, is an exotic winter annual weed native to the Mediterranean region. Since its introduction to the U.S., it has become a significant weed and aggressive invader of sagebrush, pinion-juniper, and other shrub communities, where it can completely out-compete native grasses and shrubs. In this research, remotely sensed data combined with field collected data are used to investigate the distribution of the cheatgrass in Central Utah, to characterize the trend of the NDVI time-series of cheatgrass, and to construct a spatially explicit population-based model to simulate the spatial-temporal dynamics of the cheatgrass. This research proposes a method for mapping the canopy closure of invasive species using remotely sensed data acquired at different dates. Different invasive species have their own distinguished phenologies and the satellite images in different dates could be used to capture the phenology. The results of cheatgrass abundance prediction have a good fit with the field data for both linear regression and regression tree models, although the regression tree model has better performance than the linear regression model. To characterize the trend of NDVI time-series of cheatgrass, a novel smoothing algorithm named RMMEH is presented in this research to overcome some drawbacks of many other algorithms. By comparing the performance of RMMEH in smoothing a 16-day composite of the MODIS NDVI time-series with that of two other methods, which are the 4253EH, twice and the MVI, we have found that RMMEH not only keeps the original valid NDVI points, but also effectively removes the spurious spikes. The reconstructed NDVI time-series of different land covers are of higher quality and have smoother temporal trend. To simulate the spatial-temporal dynamics of cheatgrass, a spatially explicit population-based model is built applying remotely sensed data. The comparison between the model output and the ground truth of cheatgrass closure demonstrates that the model could successfully simulate the spatial-temporal dynamics of cheatgrass in a simple cheatgrass-dominant environment. The simulation of the functional response of different prescribed fire rates also shows that this model is helpful to answer management questions like, "What are the effects of prescribed fire to invasive species?" It demonstrates that a medium fire rate of 10% can successfully prevent cheatgrass invasion.

A Multilevel Analysis of Neighbourhood Built and Social Environments and Adult Self-Reported Physical Activity and Body Mass Index in Ottawa, Canada

PubMed Central

Prince, Stephanie A.; Kristjansson, Elizabeth A.; Russell, Katherine; Billette, Jean-Michel; Sawada, Michael; Ali, Amira; Tremblay, Mark S.; Prud’homme, Denis

2011-01-01

Canadian research examining the combined effects of social and built environments on physical activity (PA) and obesity is limited. The purpose of this study was to determine the relationships among built and social environments and PA and overweight/obesity in 85 Ottawa neighbourhoods. Self-reported PA, height and weight were collected from 3,883 adults using the International PA Questionnaire from the 2003–2007 samples of the Rapid Risk Factor Surveillance System. Data on neighbourhood characteristics were obtained from the Ottawa Neighbourhood Study; a large study of neighbourhoods and health in Ottawa. Two-level binomial logistic regression models stratified by sex were used to examine the relationships of environmental and individual variables with PA and overweight/obesity while using survey weights. Results identified that approximately half of the adults were insufficiently active or overweight/obese. Multilevel models identified that for every additional convenience store, men were two times more likely to be physically active (OR = 2.08, 95% CI: 1.72, 2.43) and with every additional specialty food store women were almost two times more likely to be overweight or obese (OR = 1.77, 95% CI: 1.33, 2.20). Higher green space was associated with a reduced likelihood of PA (OR = 0.93, 95% CI: 0.86, 0.99) and increased odds of overweight and obesity in men (OR = 1.10, 95% CI: 1.01, 1.19), and decreased odds of overweight/obesity in women (OR = 0.66, 95% CI: 0.44, 0.89). In men, neighbourhood socioeconomic scores, voting rates and sense of community belonging were all significantly associated with overweight/obesity. Intraclass coefficients were low, but identified that the majority of neighbourhood variation in outcomes was explained by the models. Findings identified that green space, food landscapes and social cohesiveness may play different roles on PA and overweight/obesity in men and women and future prospective studies are needed. PMID:22073022

The Lateral Tracking Control for the Intelligent Vehicle Based on Adaptive PID Neural Network.

PubMed

Han, Gaining; Fu, Weiping; Wang, Wen; Wu, Zongsheng

2017-05-30

The intelligent vehicle is a complicated nonlinear system, and the design of a path tracking controller is one of the key technologies in intelligent vehicle research. This paper mainly designs a lateral control dynamic model of the intelligent vehicle, which is used for lateral tracking control. Firstly, the vehicle dynamics model (i.e., transfer function) is established according to the vehicle parameters. Secondly, according to the vehicle steering control system and the CARMA (Controlled Auto-Regression and Moving-Average) model, a second-order control system model is built. Using forgetting factor recursive least square estimation (FFRLS), the system parameters are identified. Finally, a neural network PID (Proportion Integral Derivative) controller is established for lateral path tracking control based on the vehicle model and the steering system model. Experimental simulation results show that the proposed model and algorithm have the high real-time and robustness in path tracing control. This provides a certain theoretical basis for intelligent vehicle autonomous navigation tracking control, and lays the foundation for the vertical and lateral coupling control.

The Lateral Tracking Control for the Intelligent Vehicle Based on Adaptive PID Neural Network

PubMed Central

Han, Gaining; Fu, Weiping; Wang, Wen; Wu, Zongsheng

2017-01-01

The intelligent vehicle is a complicated nonlinear system, and the design of a path tracking controller is one of the key technologies in intelligent vehicle research. This paper mainly designs a lateral control dynamic model of the intelligent vehicle, which is used for lateral tracking control. Firstly, the vehicle dynamics model (i.e., transfer function) is established according to the vehicle parameters. Secondly, according to the vehicle steering control system and the CARMA (Controlled Auto-Regression and Moving-Average) model, a second-order control system model is built. Using forgetting factor recursive least square estimation (FFRLS), the system parameters are identified. Finally, a neural network PID (Proportion Integral Derivative) controller is established for lateral path tracking control based on the vehicle model and the steering system model. Experimental simulation results show that the proposed model and algorithm have the high real-time and robustness in path tracing control. This provides a certain theoretical basis for intelligent vehicle autonomous navigation tracking control, and lays the foundation for the vertical and lateral coupling control. PMID:28556817

Fluorometric In Situ Monitoring of an Escherichia coli Cell Factory with Cytosolic Expression of Human Glycosyltransferase GalNAcT2: Prospects and Limitations

PubMed Central

Schwab, Karen; Lauber, Jennifer; Hesse, Friedemann

2016-01-01

The glycosyltransferase HisDapGalNAcT2 is the key protein of the Escherichia coli (E. coli) SHuffle® T7 cell factory which was genetically engineered to allow glycosylation of a protein substrate in vivo. The specific activity of the glycosyltransferase requires time-intensive analytics, but is a critical process parameter. Therefore, it has to be monitored closely. This study evaluates fluorometric in situ monitoring as option to access this critical process parameter during complex E. coli fermentations. Partial least square regression (PLS) models were built based on the fluorometric data recorded during the EnPresso® B fermentations. Capable models for the prediction of glucose and acetate concentrations were built for these fermentations with rout mean squared errors for prediction (RMSEP) of 0.19 g·L−1 and 0.08 g·L−1, as well as for the prediction of the optical density (RMSEP 0.24). In situ monitoring of soluble enzyme to cell dry weight ratios (RMSEP 5.5 × 10−4 µg w/w) and specific activity of the glycosyltransferase (RMSEP 33.5 pmol·min−1·µg−1) proved to be challenging, since HisDapGalNAcT2 had to be extracted from the cells and purified. However, fluorescence spectroscopy, in combination with PLS modeling, proved to be feasible for in situ monitoring of complex expression systems. PMID:28952595

[Improving apple fruit quality predictions by effective correction of Vis-NIR laser diffuse reflecting images].

PubMed

Qing, Zhao-shen; Ji, Bao-ping; Shi, Bo-lin; Zhu, Da-zhou; Tu, Zhen-hua; Zude, Manuela

2008-06-01

In the present study, improved laser-induced light backscattering imaging was studied regarding its potential for analyzing apple SSC and fruit flesh firmness. Images of the diffuse reflection of light on the fruit surface were obtained from Fuji apples using laser diodes emitting at five wavelength bands (680, 780, 880, 940 and 980 nm). Image processing algorithms were tested to correct for dissimilar equator and shape of fruit, and partial least squares (PLS) regression analysis was applied to calibrate on the fruit quality parameter. In comparison to the calibration based on corrected frequency with the models built by raw data, the former improved r from 0. 78 to 0.80 and from 0.87 to 0.89 for predicting SSC and firmness, respectively. Comparing models based on mean value of intensities with results obtained by frequency of intensities, the latter gave higher performance for predicting Fuji SSC and firmness. Comparing calibration for predicting SSC based on the corrected frequency of intensities and the results obtained from raw data set, the former improved root mean of standard error of prediction (RMSEP) from 1.28 degrees to 0.84 degrees Brix. On the other hand, in comparison to models for analyzing flesh firmness built by means of corrected frequency of intensities with the calibrations based on raw data, the former gave the improvement in RMSEP from 8.23 to 6.17 N x cm(-2).

A decision support model for investment on P2P lending platform.

PubMed

Zeng, Xiangxiang; Liu, Li; Leung, Stephen; Du, Jiangze; Wang, Xun; Li, Tao

2017-01-01

Peer-to-peer (P2P) lending, as a novel economic lending model, has triggered new challenges on making effective investment decisions. In a P2P lending platform, one lender can invest N loans and a loan may be accepted by M investors, thus forming a bipartite graph. Basing on the bipartite graph model, we built an iteration computation model to evaluate the unknown loans. To validate the proposed model, we perform extensive experiments on real-world data from the largest American P2P lending marketplace-Prosper. By comparing our experimental results with those obtained by Bayes and Logistic Regression, we show that our computation model can help borrowers select good loans and help lenders make good investment decisions. Experimental results also show that the Logistic classification model is a good complement to our iterative computation model, which motivates us to integrate the two classification models. The experimental results of the hybrid classification model demonstrate that the logistic classification model and our iteration computation model are complementary to each other. We conclude that the hybrid model (i.e., the integration of iterative computation model and Logistic classification model) is more efficient and stable than the individual model alone.

A decision support model for investment on P2P lending platform

PubMed Central

Liu, Li; Leung, Stephen; Du, Jiangze; Wang, Xun; Li, Tao

2017-01-01

Peer-to-peer (P2P) lending, as a novel economic lending model, has triggered new challenges on making effective investment decisions. In a P2P lending platform, one lender can invest N loans and a loan may be accepted by M investors, thus forming a bipartite graph. Basing on the bipartite graph model, we built an iteration computation model to evaluate the unknown loans. To validate the proposed model, we perform extensive experiments on real-world data from the largest American P2P lending marketplace—Prosper. By comparing our experimental results with those obtained by Bayes and Logistic Regression, we show that our computation model can help borrowers select good loans and help lenders make good investment decisions. Experimental results also show that the Logistic classification model is a good complement to our iterative computation model, which motivates us to integrate the two classification models. The experimental results of the hybrid classification model demonstrate that the logistic classification model and our iteration computation model are complementary to each other. We conclude that the hybrid model (i.e., the integration of iterative computation model and Logistic classification model) is more efficient and stable than the individual model alone. PMID:28877234

Do we need demographic data to forecast plant population dynamics?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tredennick, Andrew T.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Adler, Peter B.

2017-01-01

Rapid environmental change has generated growing interest in forecasts of future population trajectories. Traditional population models built with detailed demographic observations from one study site can address the impacts of environmental change at particular locations, but are difficult to scale up to the landscape and regional scales relevant to management decisions. An alternative is to build models using population-level data that are much easier to collect over broad spatial scales than individual-level data. However, it is unknown whether models built using population-level data adequately capture the effects of density-dependence and environmental forcing that are necessary to generate skillful forecasts.Here, we test the consequences of aggregating individual responses when forecasting the population states (percent cover) and trajectories of four perennial grass species in a semi-arid grassland in Montana, USA. We parameterized two population models for each species, one based on individual-level data (survival, growth and recruitment) and one on population-level data (percent cover), and compared their forecasting accuracy and forecast horizons with and without the inclusion of climate covariates. For both models, we used Bayesian ridge regression to weight the influence of climate covariates for optimal prediction.In the absence of climate effects, we found no significant difference between the forecast accuracy of models based on individual-level data and models based on population-level data. Climate effects were weak, but increased forecast accuracy for two species. Increases in accuracy with climate covariates were similar between model types.In our case study, percent cover models generated forecasts as accurate as those from a demographic model. For the goal of forecasting, models based on aggregated individual-level data may offer a practical alternative to data-intensive demographic models. Long time series of percent cover data already exist for many plant species. Modelers should exploit these data to predict the impacts of environmental change.

The associations between objectively-determined and self-reported urban form characteristics and neighborhood-based walking in adults.

PubMed

Jack, Elizabeth; McCormack, Gavin R

2014-06-04

Self-reported and objectively-determined neighborhood built characteristics are associated with physical activity, yet little is known about their combined influence on walking. This study: 1) compared self-reported measures of the neighborhood built environment between objectively-determined low, medium, and high walkable neighborhoods; 2) estimated the relative associations between self-reported and objectively-determined neighborhood characteristics and walking and; 3) examined the extent to which the objectively-determined built environment moderates the association between self-reported measures of the neighborhood built environment and walking. A random cross-section of 1875 Canadian adults completed a telephone-interview and postal questionnaire capturing neighborhood walkability, neighborhood-based walking, socio-demographic characteristics, walking attitudes, and residential self-selection. Walkability of each respondent's neighborhood was objectively-determined (low [LW], medium [MW], and high walkable [HW]). Covariate-adjusted regression models estimated the associations between weekly participation and duration in transportation and recreational walking and self-reported and objectively-determined walkability. Compared with objectively-determined LW neighborhoods, respondents in HW neighborhoods positively perceived access to services, street connectivity, pedestrian infrastructure, and utilitarian and recreation destination mix, but negatively perceived motor vehicle traffic and crime related safety. Compared with residents of objectively-determined LW neighborhoods, residents of HW neighborhoods were more likely (p < .05) to participate in (odds ratio [OR] = 3.06), and spend more time, per week (193 min/wk) transportation walking. Perceived access to services, street connectivity, motor vehicle safety, and mix of recreational destinations were also significantly associated with transportation walking. With regard to interactions, HW x utilitarian destination mix was positively associated with participation, HW x physical barriers and MW x pedestrian infrastructure were positively associated with minutes, and HW x safety from crime was negatively associated with minutes, of transportation walking. Neither neighborhood type nor its interactions with perceived measures of walkability were associated with recreational walking, although perceived aesthetics was associated with participation (OR = 1.18, p < .05). Objectively-determined and self-reported built characteristics are associated with neighborhood-based transportation walking. The objectively-determined built environment might moderate associations between perceptions of walkability and neighborhood-based transportation walking. Interventions that target perceptions in addition to modifications to the neighborhood built environment could result in increases in physical activity among adults.

Assessing opportunities for physical activity in the built environment of children: interrelation between kernel density and neighborhood scale.

PubMed

Buck, Christoph; Kneib, Thomas; Tkaczick, Tobias; Konstabel, Kenn; Pigeot, Iris

2015-12-22

Built environment studies provide broad evidence that urban characteristics influence physical activity (PA). However, findings are still difficult to compare, due to inconsistent measures assessing urban point characteristics and varying definitions of spatial scale. Both were found to influence the strength of the association between the built environment and PA. We simultaneously evaluated the effect of kernel approaches and network-distances to investigate the association between urban characteristics and physical activity depending on spatial scale and intensity measure. We assessed urban measures of point characteristics such as intersections, public transit stations, and public open spaces in ego-centered network-dependent neighborhoods based on geographical data of one German study region of the IDEFICS study. We calculated point intensities using the simple intensity and kernel approaches based on fixed bandwidths, cross-validated bandwidths including isotropic and anisotropic kernel functions and considering adaptive bandwidths that adjust for residential density. We distinguished six network-distances from 500 m up to 2 km to calculate each intensity measure. A log-gamma regression model was used to investigate the effect of each urban measure on moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) of 400 2- to 9.9-year old children who participated in the IDEFICS study. Models were stratified by sex and age groups, i.e. pre-school children (2 to <6 years) and school children (6-9.9 years), and were adjusted for age, body mass index (BMI), education and safety concerns of parents, season and valid weartime of accelerometers. Association between intensity measures and MVPA strongly differed by network-distance, with stronger effects found for larger network-distances. Simple intensity revealed smaller effect estimates and smaller goodness-of-fit compared to kernel approaches. Smallest variation in effect estimates over network-distances was found for kernel intensity measures based on isotropic and anisotropic cross-validated bandwidth selection. We found a strong variation in the association between the built environment and PA of children based on the choice of intensity measure and network-distance. Kernel intensity measures provided stable results over various scales and improved the assessment compared to the simple intensity measure. Considering different spatial scales and kernel intensity methods might reduce methodological limitations in assessing opportunities for PA in the built environment.

Estimation of elimination half-lives of organic chemicals in humans using gradient boosting machine.

PubMed

Lu, Jing; Lu, Dong; Zhang, Xiaochen; Bi, Yi; Cheng, Keguang; Zheng, Mingyue; Luo, Xiaomin

2016-11-01

Elimination half-life is an important pharmacokinetic parameter that determines exposure duration to approach steady state of drugs and regulates drug administration. The experimental evaluation of half-life is time-consuming and costly. Thus, it is attractive to build an accurate prediction model for half-life. In this study, several machine learning methods, including gradient boosting machine (GBM), support vector regressions (RBF-SVR and Linear-SVR), local lazy regression (LLR), SA, SR, and GP, were employed to build high-quality prediction models. Two strategies of building consensus models were explored to improve the accuracy of prediction. Moreover, the applicability domains (ADs) of the models were determined by using the distance-based threshold. Among seven individual models, GBM showed the best performance (R(2)=0.820 and RMSE=0.555 for the test set), and Linear-SVR produced the inferior prediction accuracy (R(2)=0.738 and RMSE=0.672). The use of distance-based ADs effectively determined the scope of QSAR models. However, the consensus models by combing the individual models could not improve the prediction performance. Some essential descriptors relevant to half-life were identified and analyzed. An accurate prediction model for elimination half-life was built by GBM, which was superior to the reference model (R(2)=0.723 and RMSE=0.698). Encouraged by the promising results, we expect that the GBM model for elimination half-life would have potential applications for the early pharmacokinetic evaluations, and provide guidance for designing drug candidates with favorable in vivo exposure profile. This article is part of a Special Issue entitled "System Genetics" Guest Editor: Dr. Yudong Cai and Dr. Tao Huang. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Obesity and diabetes, the built environment, and the 'local' food economy in the United States, 2007.

PubMed

Salois, Matthew J

2012-01-01

Obesity and diabetes are increasingly attributed to environmental factors, however, little attention has been paid to the influence of the 'local' food economy. This paper examines the association of measures relating to the built environment and 'local' agriculture with U.S. county-level prevalence of obesity and diabetes. Key indicators of the 'local' food economy include the density of farmers' markets and the presence of farms with direct sales. This paper employs a robust regression estimator to account for non-normality of the data and to accommodate outliers. Overall, the built environment is associated with the prevalence of obesity and diabetes and a strong local' food economy may play an important role in prevention. Results imply considerable scope for community-level interventions. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Variable selection based on clustering analysis for improvement of polyphenols prediction in green tea using synchronous fluorescence spectra.

PubMed

Shan, Jiajia; Wang, Xue; Zhou, Hao; Han, Shuqing; Riza, Dimas Firmanda Al; Kondo, Naoshi

2018-03-13

Synchronous fluorescence spectra, combined with multivariate analysis were used to predict flavonoids content in green tea rapidly and nondestructively. This paper presented a new and efficient spectral intervals selection method called clustering based partial least square (CL-PLS), which selected informative wavelengths by combining clustering concept and partial least square (PLS) methods to improve models' performance by synchronous fluorescence spectra. The fluorescence spectra of tea samples were obtained and k-means and kohonen-self organizing map clustering algorithms were carried out to cluster full spectra into several clusters, and sub-PLS regression model was developed on each cluster. Finally, CL-PLS models consisting of gradually selected clusters were built. Correlation coefficient (R) was used to evaluate the effect on prediction performance of PLS models. In addition, variable influence on projection partial least square (VIP-PLS), selectivity ratio partial least square (SR-PLS), interval partial least square (iPLS) models and full spectra PLS model were investigated and the results were compared. The results showed that CL-PLS presented the best result for flavonoids prediction using synchronous fluorescence spectra.

Role of highway traffic on spatial and temporal distributions of air pollutants in a Swiss Alpine valley.

PubMed

Ducret-Stich, Regina E; Tsai, Ming-Yi; Ragettli, Martina S; Ineichen, Alex; Kuenzli, Nino; Phuleria, Harish C

2013-07-01

Traffic-related air pollutants show high spatial variability near roads, posing a challenge to adequately assess exposures. Recent modeling approaches (e.g. dispersion models, land-use regression (LUR) models) have addressed this but mostly in urban areas where traffic is abundant. In contrast, our study area was located in a rural Swiss Alpine valley crossed by the main North-south transit highway of Switzerland. We conducted an extensive measurement campaign collecting continuous nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), particulate number concentrations (PN), daily respirable particulate matter (PM10), elemental carbon (EC) and organic carbon (OC) at one background, one highway and seven mobile stations from November 2007 to June 2009. Using these measurements, we built a hybrid model to predict daily outdoor NO₂ concentrations at residences of children participating in an asthma panel study. With the exception of OC, daily variations of the pollutants followed the temporal trends of heavy-duty traffic counts on the highway. In contrast, variations of weekly/seasonal means were strongly determined by meteorological conditions, e.g., winter inversion episodes. For pollutants related to primary exhaust emissions (i.e. NO₂, EC and PN) local spatial variation strongly depended on proximity to the highway. Pollutant concentrations decayed to background levels within 150 to 200 m from the highway. Two separate daily NO₂ prediction models were built using LUR approaches with (a) short-term traffic and weather data (model 1) and (b) subsequent addition of daily background NO₂ to previous model (model 2). Models 1 and 2 explained 70% and 91% of the variability in outdoor NO₂ concentrations, respectively. The biweekly averaged predictions from the final model 2 agreed very well with the independent biweekly integrated passive measurements taken at thirteen homes and nine community sites (validation R(2)=0.74). The excellent spatio-temporal performance of our model provides a very promising basis for the health effect assessment of the panel study. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Application of NIRS coupled with PLS regression as a rapid, non-destructive alternative method for quantification of KBA in Boswellia sacra

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Al-Harrasi, Ahmed; Rehman, Najeeb Ur; Mabood, Fazal; Albroumi, Muhammaed; Ali, Liaqat; Hussain, Javid; Hussain, Hidayat; Csuk, René; Khan, Abdul Latif; Alam, Tanveer; Alameri, Saif

2017-09-01

In the present study, for the first time, NIR spectroscopy coupled with PLS regression as a rapid and alternative method was developed to quantify the amount of Keto-β-Boswellic Acid (KBA) in different plant parts of Boswellia sacra and the resin exudates of the trunk. NIR spectroscopy was used for the measurement of KBA standards and B. sacra samples in absorption mode in the wavelength range from 700-2500 nm. PLS regression model was built from the obtained spectral data using 70% of KBA standards (training set) in the range from 0.1 ppm to 100 ppm. The PLS regression model obtained was having R-square value of 98% with 0.99 corelationship value and having good prediction with RMSEP value 3.2 and correlation of 0.99. It was then used to quantify the amount of KBA in the samples of B. sacra. The results indicated that the MeOH extract of resin has the highest concentration of KBA (0.6%) followed by essential oil (0.1%). However, no KBA was found in the aqueous extract. The MeOH extract of the resin was subjected to column chromatography to get various sub-fractions at different polarity of organic solvents. The sub-fraction at 4% MeOH/CHCl3 (4.1% of KBA) was found to contain the highest percentage of KBA followed by another sub-fraction at 2% MeOH/CHCl3 (2.2% of KBA). The present results also indicated that KBA is only present in the gum-resin of the trunk and not in all parts of the plant. These results were further confirmed through HPLC analysis and therefore it is concluded that NIRS coupled with PLS regression is a rapid and alternate method for quantification of KBA in Boswellia sacra. It is non-destructive, rapid, sensitive and uses simple methods of sample preparation.

Detrended fluctuation analysis as a regression framework: Estimating dependence at different scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kristoufek, Ladislav

2015-02-01

We propose a framework combining detrended fluctuation analysis with standard regression methodology. The method is built on detrended variances and covariances and it is designed to estimate regression parameters at different scales and under potential nonstationarity and power-law correlations. The former feature allows for distinguishing between effects for a pair of variables from different temporal perspectives. The latter ones make the method a significant improvement over the standard least squares estimation. Theoretical claims are supported by Monte Carlo simulations. The method is then applied on selected examples from physics, finance, environmental science, and epidemiology. For most of the studied cases, the relationship between variables of interest varies strongly across scales.

Risk factors for displaced abomasum or ketosis in Swedish dairy herds.

PubMed

Stengärde, L; Hultgren, J; Tråvén, M; Holtenius, K; Emanuelson, U

2012-03-01

Risk factors associated with high or low long-term incidence of displaced abomasum (DA) or clinical ketosis were studied in 60 Swedish dairy herds, using multivariable logistic regression modelling. Forty high-incidence herds were included as cases and 20 low-incidence herds as controls. Incidence rates were calculated based on veterinary records of clinical diagnoses. During the 3-year period preceding the herd classification, herds with a high incidence had a disease incidence of DA or clinical ketosis above the 3rd quartile in a national database for disease recordings. Control herds had no cows with DA or clinical ketosis. All herds were visited during the housing period and herdsmen were interviewed about management routines, housing, feeding, milk yield, and herd health. Target groups were heifers in late gestation, dry cows, and cows in early lactation. Univariable logistic regression was used to screen for factors associated with being a high-incidence herd. A multivariable logistic regression model was built using stepwise regression. A higher maximum daily milk yield in multiparous cows and a large herd size (p=0.054 and p=0.066, respectively) tended to be associated with being a high-incidence herd. Not cleaning the heifer feeding platform daily increased the odds of having a high-incidence herd twelvefold (p<0.01). Keeping cows in only one group in the dry period increased the odds of having a high incidence herd eightfold (p=0.03). Herd size was confounded with housing system. Housing system was therefore added to the final logistic regression model. In conclusion, a large herd size, a high maximum daily milk yield, keeping dry cows in one group, and not cleaning the feeding platform daily appear to be important risk factors for a high incidence of DA or clinical ketosis in Swedish dairy herds. These results confirm the importance of housing, management and feeding in the prevention of metabolic disorders in dairy cows around parturition and in early lactation. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The advancement of the built environment research through employment of structural equation modeling (SEM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wasilah, S.; Fahmyddin, T.

2018-03-01

The employment of structural equation modeling (SEM) in research has taken an increasing attention in among researchers in built environment. There is a gap to understand the attributes, application, and importance of this approach in data analysis in built environment study. This paper intends to provide fundamental comprehension of SEM method in data analysis, unveiling attributes, employment and significance and bestow cases to assess associations amongst variables and constructs. The study uses some main literature to grasp the essence of SEM regarding with built environment research. The better acknowledgment of this analytical tool may assist the researcher in the built environment to analyze data under complex research questions and to test multivariate models in a single study.

Multilayer perceptron neural network-based approach for modeling phycocyanin pigment concentrations: case study from lower Charles River buoy, USA.

PubMed

Heddam, Salim

2016-09-01

This paper proposes multilayer perceptron neural network (MLPNN) to predict phycocyanin (PC) pigment using water quality variables as predictor. In the proposed model, four water quality variables that are water temperature, dissolved oxygen, pH, and specific conductance were selected as the inputs for the MLPNN model, and the PC as the output. To demonstrate the capability and the usefulness of the MLPNN model, a total of 15,849 data measured at 15-min (15 min) intervals of time are used for the development of the model. The data are collected at the lower Charles River buoy, and available from the US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA). For comparison purposes, a multiple linear regression (MLR) model that was frequently used for predicting water quality variables in previous studies is also built. The performances of the models are evaluated using a set of widely used statistical indices. The performance of the MLPNN and MLR models is compared with the measured data. The obtained results show that (i) the all proposed MLPNN models are more accurate than the MLR models and (ii) the results obtained are very promising and encouraging for the development of phycocyanin-predictive models.

Probability models for growth and aflatoxin B1 production as affected by intraspecies variability in Aspergillus flavus.

PubMed

Aldars-García, Laila; Berman, María; Ortiz, Jordi; Ramos, Antonio J; Marín, Sonia

2018-06-01

The probability of growth and aflatoxin B 1 (AFB 1 ) production of 20 isolates of Aspergillus flavus were studied using a full factorial design with eight water activity levels (0.84-0.98 a w ) and six temperature levels (15-40 °C). Binary data obtained from growth studies were modelled using linear logistic regression analysis as a function of temperature, water activity and time for each isolate. In parallel, AFB 1 was extracted at different times from newly formed colonies (up to 20 mm in diameter). Although a total of 950 AFB 1 values over time for all conditions studied were recorded, they were not considered to be enough to build probability models over time, and therefore, only models at 30 days were built. The confidence intervals of the regression coefficients of the probability of growth models showed some differences among the 20 growth models. Further, to assess the growth/no growth and AFB 1 /no- AFB 1 production boundaries, 0.05 and 0.5 probabilities were plotted at 30 days for all of the isolates. The boundaries for growth and AFB 1 showed that, in general, the conditions for growth were wider than those for AFB 1 production. The probability of growth and AFB 1 production seemed to be less variable among isolates than AFB 1 accumulation. Apart from the AFB 1 production probability models, using growth probability models for AFB 1 probability predictions could be, although conservative, a suitable alternative. Predictive mycology should include a number of isolates to generate data to build predictive models and take into account the genetic diversity of the species and thus make predictions as similar as possible to real fungal food contamination. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

SU-E-J-03: A Comprehensive Comparison Between Alpha and Beta Emitters for Cancer Radioimmunotherapy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Huang, C.Y.; Guatelli, S; Oborn, B

2014-06-01

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to perform a comprehensive comparison of the therapeutic efficacy and cytotoxicity of alpha and beta emitters for Radioimmunotherapy (RIT). For each stage of cancer development, specific models were built for the separate objectives of RIT to be addressed:a) kill isolated cancer cells in transit in the lymphatic and vascular circulation,b) regress avascular cell clusters,c) regress tumor vasculature and tumors. Methods: Because of the nature of short range, high LET alpha and long energy beta radiation and heterogeneous antigen expression among cancer cells, the microdosimetric approach is essential for the RIT assessment. Geant4 basedmore » microdosimetric models are developed for the three different stages of cancer progression: cancer cells, cell clusters and tumors. The energy deposition, specific energy resulted from different source distribution in the three models was calculated separately for 4 alpha emitting radioisotopes ({sup 211}At, {sup 213}Bi, {sup 223}Ra and {sup 225}Ac) and 6 beta emitters ({sup 32}P, {sup 33}P, {sup 67}Cu, {sup 90}Y, {sup 131}I and {sup 177}Lu). The cell survival, therapeutic efficacy and cytotoxicity are determined and compared between alpha and beta emitters. Results: We show that internal targeted alpha radiation has advantages over beta radiation for killing isolated cancer cells, regressing small cell clusters and also solid tumors. Alpha particles have much higher dose specificity and potency than beta particles. They can deposit 3 logs more dose than beta emitters to single cells and solid tumor. Tumor control probability relies on deep penetration of radioisotopes to cancer cell clusters and solid tumors. Conclusion: The results of this study provide a quantitative understanding of the efficacy and cytotoxicity of RIT for each stage of cancer development.« less

The Association Between Internet Use and Ambulatory Care-Seeking Behaviors in Taiwan: A Cross-Sectional Study.

PubMed

Hsieh, Ronan Wenhan; Chen, Likwang; Chen, Tsung-Fu; Liang, Jyh-Chong; Lin, Tzu-Bin; Chen, Yen-Yuan; Tsai, Chin-Chung

2016-12-07

Compared with the traditional ways of gaining health-related information from newspapers, magazines, radio, and television, the Internet is inexpensive, accessible, and conveys diverse opinions. Several studies on how increasing Internet use affected outpatient clinic visits were inconclusive. The objective of this study was to examine the role of Internet use on ambulatory care-seeking behaviors as indicated by the number of outpatient clinic visits after adjusting for confounding variables. We conducted this study using a sample randomly selected from the general population in Taiwan. To handle the missing data, we built a multivariate logistic regression model for propensity score matching using age and sex as the independent variables. The questionnaires with no missing data were then included in a multivariate linear regression model for examining the association between Internet use and outpatient clinic visits. We included a sample of 293 participants who answered the questionnaire with no missing data in the multivariate linear regression model. We found that Internet use was significantly associated with more outpatient clinic visits (P=.04). The participants with chronic diseases tended to make more outpatient clinic visits (P<.01). The inconsistent quality of health-related information obtained from the Internet may be associated with patients' increasing need for interpreting and discussing the information with health care professionals, thus resulting in an increasing number of outpatient clinic visits. In addition, the media literacy of Web-based health-related information seekers may also affect their ambulatory care-seeking behaviors, such as outpatient clinic visits. ©Ronan Wenhan Hsieh, Likwang Chen, Tsung-Fu Chen, Jyh-Chong Liang, Tzu-Bin Lin, Yen-Yuan Chen, Chin-Chung Tsai. Originally published in the Journal of Medical Internet Research (http://www.jmir.org), 07.12.2016.

New horizons in mouse immunoinformatics: reliable in silico prediction of mouse class I histocompatibility major complex peptide binding affinity.

PubMed

Hattotuwagama, Channa K; Guan, Pingping; Doytchinova, Irini A; Flower, Darren R

2004-11-21

Quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) analysis is a main cornerstone of modern informatic disciplines. Predictive computational models, based on QSAR technology, of peptide-major histocompatibility complex (MHC) binding affinity have now become a vital component of modern day computational immunovaccinology. Historically, such approaches have been built around semi-qualitative, classification methods, but these are now giving way to quantitative regression methods. The additive method, an established immunoinformatics technique for the quantitative prediction of peptide-protein affinity, was used here to identify the sequence dependence of peptide binding specificity for three mouse class I MHC alleles: H2-D(b), H2-K(b) and H2-K(k). As we show, in terms of reliability the resulting models represent a significant advance on existing methods. They can be used for the accurate prediction of T-cell epitopes and are freely available online ( http://www.jenner.ac.uk/MHCPred).

Study on a pattern classification method of soil quality based on simplified learning sample dataset

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zhang, Jiahua; Liu, S.; Hu, Y.; Tian, Y.

2011-01-01

Based on the massive soil information in current soil quality grade evaluation, this paper constructed an intelligent classification approach of soil quality grade depending on classical sampling techniques and disordered multiclassification Logistic regression model. As a case study to determine the learning sample capacity under certain confidence level and estimation accuracy, and use c-means algorithm to automatically extract the simplified learning sample dataset from the cultivated soil quality grade evaluation database for the study area, Long chuan county in Guangdong province, a disordered Logistic classifier model was then built and the calculation analysis steps of soil quality grade intelligent classification were given. The result indicated that the soil quality grade can be effectively learned and predicted by the extracted simplified dataset through this method, which changed the traditional method for soil quality grade evaluation. ?? 2011 IEEE.

Assess and Predict Automatic Generation Control Performances for Thermal Power Generation Units Based on Modeling Techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Yan; Yang, Zijiang; Gao, Song; Liu, Jinbiao

2018-02-01

Automatic generation control(AGC) is a key technology to maintain real time power generation and load balance, and to ensure the quality of power supply. Power grids require each power generation unit to have a satisfactory AGC performance, being specified in two detailed rules. The two rules provide a set of indices to measure the AGC performance of power generation unit. However, the commonly-used method to calculate these indices is based on particular data samples from AGC responses and will lead to incorrect results in practice. This paper proposes a new method to estimate the AGC performance indices via system identification techniques. In addition, a nonlinear regression model between performance indices and load command is built in order to predict the AGC performance indices. The effectiveness of the proposed method is validated through industrial case studies.

Statistical text classifier to detect specific type of medical incidents.

PubMed

Wong, Zoie Shui-Yee; Akiyama, Masanori

2013-01-01

WHO Patient Safety has put focus to increase the coherence and expressiveness of patient safety classification with the foundation of International Classification for Patient Safety (ICPS). Text classification and statistical approaches has showed to be successful to identifysafety problems in the Aviation industryusing incident text information. It has been challenging to comprehend the taxonomy of medical incidents in a structured manner. Independent reporting mechanisms for patient safety incidents have been established in the UK, Canada, Australia, Japan, Hong Kong etc. This research demonstrates the potential to construct statistical text classifiers to detect specific type of medical incidents using incident text data. An illustrative example for classifying look-alike sound-alike (LASA) medication incidents using structured text from 227 advisories related to medication errors from Global Patient Safety Alerts (GPSA) is shown in this poster presentation. The classifier was built using logistic regression model. ROC curve and the AUC value indicated that this is a satisfactory good model.

In Silico Prediction of Chemical Toxicity for Drug Design Using Machine Learning Methods and Structural Alerts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Hongbin; Sun, Lixia; Li, Weihua; Liu, Guixia; Tang, Yun

2018-02-01

For a drug, safety is always the most important issue, including a variety of toxicities and adverse drug effects, which should be evaluated in preclinical and clinical trial phases. This review article at first simply introduced the computational methods used in prediction of chemical toxicity for drug design, including machine learning methods and structural alerts. Machine learning methods have been widely applied in qualitative classification and quantitative regression studies, while structural alerts can be regarded as a complementary tool for lead optimization. The emphasis of this article was put on the recent progress of predictive models built for various toxicities. Available databases and web servers were also provided. Though the methods and models are very helpful for drug design, there are still some challenges and limitations to be improved for drug safety assessment in the future.

In Silico Prediction of Chemical Toxicity for Drug Design Using Machine Learning Methods and Structural Alerts

PubMed Central

Yang, Hongbin; Sun, Lixia; Li, Weihua; Liu, Guixia; Tang, Yun

2018-01-01

During drug development, safety is always the most important issue, including a variety of toxicities and adverse drug effects, which should be evaluated in preclinical and clinical trial phases. This review article at first simply introduced the computational methods used in prediction of chemical toxicity for drug design, including machine learning methods and structural alerts. Machine learning methods have been widely applied in qualitative classification and quantitative regression studies, while structural alerts can be regarded as a complementary tool for lead optimization. The emphasis of this article was put on the recent progress of predictive models built for various toxicities. Available databases and web servers were also provided. Though the methods and models are very helpful for drug design, there are still some challenges and limitations to be improved for drug safety assessment in the future. PMID:29515993

Simultaneous determination of three herbicides by differential pulse voltammetry and chemometrics.

PubMed

Ni, Yongnian; Wang, Lin; Kokot, Serge

2011-01-01

A novel differential pulse voltammetry method (DPV) was researched and developed for the simultaneous determination of Pendimethalin, Dinoseb and sodium 5-nitroguaiacolate (5NG) with the aid of chemometrics. The voltammograms of these three compounds overlapped significantly, and to facilitate the simultaneous determination of the three analytes, chemometrics methods were applied. These included classical least squares (CLS), principal component regression (PCR), partial least squares (PLS) and radial basis function-artificial neural networks (RBF-ANN). A separately prepared verification data set was used to confirm the calibrations, which were built from the original and first derivative data matrices of the voltammograms. On the basis relative prediction errors and recoveries of the analytes, the RBF-ANN and the DPLS (D - first derivative spectra) models performed best and are particularly recommended for application. The DPLS calibration model was applied satisfactorily for the prediction of the three analytes from market vegetables and lake water samples.

Urban green and grey space in relation to respiratory health in children.

PubMed

Tischer, Christina; Gascon, Mireia; Fernández-Somoano, Ana; Tardón, Adonina; Lertxundi Materola, Aitana; Ibarluzea, Jesus; Ferrero, Amparo; Estarlich, Marisa; Cirach, Marta; Vrijheid, Martine; Fuertes, Elaine; Dalmau-Bueno, Albert; Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark J; Antó, Josep M; Sunyer, Jordi; Dadvand, Payam

2017-06-01

We assessed the effect of three different indices of urban built environment on allergic and respiratory conditions.This study involved 2472 children participating in the ongoing INMA birth cohort located in two bio-geographic regions (Euro-Siberian and Mediterranean) in Spain. Residential surrounding built environment was characterised as 1) residential surrounding greenness based on satellite-derived normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI), 2) residential proximity to green spaces and 3) residential surrounding greyness based on urban land use patterns. Information on wheezing, bronchitis, asthma and allergic rhinitis up to age 4 years was obtained from parent-completed questionnaires. Logistic regression and generalised estimating equation modelling were performed.Among children from the Euro-Siberian region, higher residential surrounding greenness and higher proximity to green spaces were negatively associated with wheezing. In the Mediterranean region, higher residential proximity to green spaces was associated with a reduced risk for bronchitis. A higher amount of residential surrounding greyness was found to increase the risk for bronchitis in this region.Associations between indices of urban residential greenness and greyness with respiratory diseases differ by region. The pathways underlying these associations require further exploration. Copyright ©ERS 2017.

Detection and quantification of adulteration in sandalwood oil through near infrared spectroscopy.

PubMed

Kuriakose, Saji; Thankappan, Xavier; Joe, Hubert; Venkataraman, Venkateswaran

2010-10-01

The confirmation of authenticity of essential oils and the detection of adulteration are problems of increasing importance in the perfumes, pharmaceutical, flavor and fragrance industries. This is especially true for 'value added' products like sandalwood oil. A methodical study is conducted here to demonstrate the potential use of Near Infrared (NIR) spectroscopy along with multivariate calibration models like principal component regression (PCR) and partial least square regression (PLSR) as rapid analytical techniques for the qualitative and quantitative determination of adulterants in sandalwood oil. After suitable pre-processing of the NIR raw spectral data, the models are built-up by cross-validation. The lowest Root Mean Square Error of Cross-Validation and Calibration (RMSECV and RMSEC % v/v) are used as a decision supporting system to fix the optimal number of factors. The coefficient of determination (R(2)) and the Root Mean Square Error of Prediction (RMSEP % v/v) in the prediction sets are used as the evaluation parameters (R(2) = 0.9999 and RMSEP = 0.01355). The overall result leads to the conclusion that NIR spectroscopy with chemometric techniques could be successfully used as a rapid, simple, instant and non-destructive method for the detection of adulterants, even 1% of the low-grade oils, in the high quality form of sandalwood oil.

Optimization of critical quality attributes in continuous twin-screw wet granulation via design space validated with pilot scale experimental data.

PubMed

Liu, Huolong; Galbraith, S C; Ricart, Brendon; Stanton, Courtney; Smith-Goettler, Brandye; Verdi, Luke; O'Connor, Thomas; Lee, Sau; Yoon, Seongkyu

2017-06-15

In this study, the influence of key process variables (screw speed, throughput and liquid to solid (L/S) ratio) of a continuous twin screw wet granulation (TSWG) was investigated using a central composite face-centered (CCF) experimental design method. Regression models were developed to predict the process responses (motor torque, granule residence time), granule properties (size distribution, volume average diameter, yield, relative width, flowability) and tablet properties (tensile strength). The effects of the three key process variables were analyzed via contour and interaction plots. The experimental results have demonstrated that all the process responses, granule properties and tablet properties are influenced by changing the screw speed, throughput and L/S ratio. The TSWG process was optimized to produce granules with specific volume average diameter of 150μm and the yield of 95% based on the developed regression models. A design space (DS) was built based on volume average granule diameter between 90 and 200μm and the granule yield larger than 75% with a failure probability analysis using Monte Carlo simulations. Validation experiments successfully validated the robustness and accuracy of the DS generated using the CCF experimental design in optimizing a continuous TSWG process. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Method optimization for drug impurity profiling in supercritical fluid chromatography: Application to a pharmaceutical mixture.

PubMed

Muscat Galea, Charlene; Didion, David; Clicq, David; Mangelings, Debby; Vander Heyden, Yvan

2017-12-01

A supercritical chromatographic method for the separation of a drug and its impurities has been developed and optimized applying an experimental design approach and chromatogram simulations. Stationary phase screening was followed by optimization of the modifier and injection solvent composition. A design-of-experiment (DoE) approach was then used to optimize column temperature, back-pressure and the gradient slope simultaneously. Regression models for the retention times and peak widths of all mixture components were built. The factor levels for different grid points were then used to predict the retention times and peak widths of the mixture components using the regression models and the best separation for the worst separated peak pair in the experimental domain was identified. A plot of the minimal resolutions was used to help identifying the factor levels leading to the highest resolution between consecutive peaks. The effects of the DoE factors were visualized in a way that is familiar to the analytical chemist, i.e. by simulating the resulting chromatogram. The mixture of an active ingredient and seven impurities was separated in less than eight minutes. The approach discussed in this paper demonstrates how SFC methods can be developed and optimized efficiently using simple concepts and tools. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Highly predictive and interpretable models for PAMPA permeability.

PubMed

Sun, Hongmao; Nguyen, Kimloan; Kerns, Edward; Yan, Zhengyin; Yu, Kyeong Ri; Shah, Pranav; Jadhav, Ajit; Xu, Xin

2017-02-01

Cell membrane permeability is an important determinant for oral absorption and bioavailability of a drug molecule. An in silico model predicting drug permeability is described, which is built based on a large permeability dataset of 7488 compound entries or 5435 structurally unique molecules measured by the same lab using parallel artificial membrane permeability assay (PAMPA). On the basis of customized molecular descriptors, the support vector regression (SVR) model trained with 4071 compounds with quantitative data is able to predict the remaining 1364 compounds with the qualitative data with an area under the curve of receiver operating characteristic (AUC-ROC) of 0.90. The support vector classification (SVC) model trained with half of the whole dataset comprised of both the quantitative and the qualitative data produced accurate predictions to the remaining data with the AUC-ROC of 0.88. The results suggest that the developed SVR model is highly predictive and provides medicinal chemists a useful in silico tool to facilitate design and synthesis of novel compounds with optimal drug-like properties, and thus accelerate the lead optimization in drug discovery. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Building global models for fat and total protein content in raw milk based on historical spectroscopic data in the visible and short-wave near infrared range.

PubMed

Melenteva, Anastasiia; Galyanin, Vladislav; Savenkova, Elena; Bogomolov, Andrey

2016-07-15

A large set of fresh cow milk samples collected from many suppliers over a large geographical area in Russia during a year has been analyzed by optical spectroscopy in the range 400-1100 nm in accordance with previously developed scatter-based technique. The global (i.e. resistant to seasonal, genetic, regional and other variations of the milk composition) models for fat and total protein content, which were built using partial least-squares (PLS) regression, exhibit satisfactory prediction performances enabling their practical application in the dairy. The root mean-square errors of prediction (RMSEP) were 0.09 and 0.10 for fat and total protein content, respectively. The issues of raw milk analysis and multivariate modelling based on the historical spectroscopic data have been considered and approaches to the creation of global models and their transfer between the instruments have been proposed. Availability of global models should significantly facilitate the dissemination of optical spectroscopic methods for the laboratory and in-line quantitative milk analysis. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Variable selection based on clustering analysis for improvement of polyphenols prediction in green tea using synchronous fluorescence spectra

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shan, Jiajia; Wang, Xue; Zhou, Hao; Han, Shuqing; Riza, Dimas Firmanda Al; Kondo, Naoshi

2018-04-01

Synchronous fluorescence spectra, combined with multivariate analysis were used to predict flavonoids content in green tea rapidly and nondestructively. This paper presented a new and efficient spectral intervals selection method called clustering based partial least square (CL-PLS), which selected informative wavelengths by combining clustering concept and partial least square (PLS) methods to improve models’ performance by synchronous fluorescence spectra. The fluorescence spectra of tea samples were obtained and k-means and kohonen-self organizing map clustering algorithms were carried out to cluster full spectra into several clusters, and sub-PLS regression model was developed on each cluster. Finally, CL-PLS models consisting of gradually selected clusters were built. Correlation coefficient (R) was used to evaluate the effect on prediction performance of PLS models. In addition, variable influence on projection partial least square (VIP-PLS), selectivity ratio partial least square (SR-PLS), interval partial least square (iPLS) models and full spectra PLS model were investigated and the results were compared. The results showed that CL-PLS presented the best result for flavonoids prediction using synchronous fluorescence spectra.

Project risk management in the construction of high-rise buildings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Titarenko, Boris; Hasnaoui, Amir; Titarenko, Roman; Buzuk, Liliya

2018-03-01

This paper shows the project risk management methods, which allow to better identify risks in the construction of high-rise buildings and to manage them throughout the life cycle of the project. One of the project risk management processes is a quantitative analysis of risks. The quantitative analysis usually includes the assessment of the potential impact of project risks and their probabilities. This paper shows the most popular methods of risk probability assessment and tries to indicate the advantages of the robust approach over the traditional methods. Within the framework of the project risk management model a robust approach of P. Huber is applied and expanded for the tasks of regression analysis of project data. The suggested algorithms used to assess the parameters in statistical models allow to obtain reliable estimates. A review of the theoretical problems of the development of robust models built on the methodology of the minimax estimates was done and the algorithm for the situation of asymmetric "contamination" was developed.

The QSAR study of flavonoid-metal complexes scavenging rad OH free radical

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Bo-chu; Qian, Jun-zhen; Fan, Ying; Tan, Jun

2014-10-01

Flavonoid-metal complexes have antioxidant activities. However, quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSAR) of flavonoid-metal complexes and their antioxidant activities has still not been tackled. On the basis of 21 structures of flavonoid-metal complexes and their antioxidant activities for scavenging rad OH free radical, we optimised their structures using Gaussian 03 software package and we subsequently calculated and chose 18 quantum chemistry descriptors such as dipole, charge and energy. Then we chose several quantum chemistry descriptors that are very important to the IC50 of flavonoid-metal complexes for scavenging rad OH free radical through method of stepwise linear regression, Meanwhile we obtained 4 new variables through the principal component analysis. Finally, we built the QSAR models based on those important quantum chemistry descriptors and the 4 new variables as the independent variables and the IC50 as the dependent variable using an Artificial Neural Network (ANN), and we validated the two models using experimental data. These results show that the two models in this paper are reliable and predictable.

Neural networks with multiple general neuron models: a hybrid computational intelligence approach using Genetic Programming.

PubMed

Barton, Alan J; Valdés, Julio J; Orchard, Robert

2009-01-01

Classical neural networks are composed of neurons whose nature is determined by a certain function (the neuron model), usually pre-specified. In this paper, a type of neural network (NN-GP) is presented in which: (i) each neuron may have its own neuron model in the form of a general function, (ii) any layout (i.e network interconnection) is possible, and (iii) no bias nodes or weights are associated to the connections, neurons or layers. The general functions associated to a neuron are learned by searching a function space. They are not provided a priori, but are rather built as part of an Evolutionary Computation process based on Genetic Programming. The resulting network solutions are evaluated based on a fitness measure, which may, for example, be based on classification or regression errors. Two real-world examples are presented to illustrate the promising behaviour on classification problems via construction of a low-dimensional representation of a high-dimensional parameter space associated to the set of all network solutions.

Development of Interpretable Predictive Models for BPH and Prostate Cancer.

PubMed

Bermejo, Pablo; Vivo, Alicia; Tárraga, Pedro J; Rodríguez-Montes, J A

2015-01-01

Traditional methods for deciding whether to recommend a patient for a prostate biopsy are based on cut-off levels of stand-alone markers such as prostate-specific antigen (PSA) or any of its derivatives. However, in the last decade we have seen the increasing use of predictive models that combine, in a non-linear manner, several predictives that are better able to predict prostate cancer (PC), but these fail to help the clinician to distinguish between PC and benign prostate hyperplasia (BPH) patients. We construct two new models that are capable of predicting both PC and BPH. An observational study was performed on 150 patients with PSA ≥3 ng/mL and age >50 years. We built a decision tree and a logistic regression model, validated with the leave-one-out methodology, in order to predict PC or BPH, or reject both. Statistical dependence with PC and BPH was found for prostate volume (P-value < 0.001), PSA (P-value < 0.001), international prostate symptom score (IPSS; P-value < 0.001), digital rectal examination (DRE; P-value < 0.001), age (P-value < 0.002), antecedents (P-value < 0.006), and meat consumption (P-value < 0.08). The two predictive models that were constructed selected a subset of these, namely, volume, PSA, DRE, and IPSS, obtaining an area under the ROC curve (AUC) between 72% and 80% for both PC and BPH prediction. PSA and volume together help to build predictive models that accurately distinguish among PC, BPH, and patients without any of these pathologies. Our decision tree and logistic regression models outperform the AUC obtained in the compared studies. Using these models as decision support, the number of unnecessary biopsies might be significantly reduced.

Using Smartphone Sensors for Improving Energy Expenditure Estimation

PubMed Central

Zhu, Jindan; Das, Aveek K.; Zeng, Yunze; Mohapatra, Prasant; Han, Jay J.

2015-01-01

Energy expenditure (EE) estimation is an important factor in tracking personal activity and preventing chronic diseases, such as obesity and diabetes. Accurate and real-time EE estimation utilizing small wearable sensors is a difficult task, primarily because the most existing schemes work offline or use heuristics. In this paper, we focus on accurate EE estimation for tracking ambulatory activities (walking, standing, climbing upstairs, or downstairs) of a typical smartphone user. We used built-in smartphone sensors (accelerometer and barometer sensor), sampled at low frequency, to accurately estimate EE. Using a barometer sensor, in addition to an accelerometer sensor, greatly increases the accuracy of EE estimation. Using bagged regression trees, a machine learning technique, we developed a generic regression model for EE estimation that yields upto 96% correlation with actual EE. We compare our results against the state-of-the-art calorimetry equations and consumer electronics devices (Fitbit and Nike+ FuelBand). The newly developed EE estimation algorithm demonstrated superior accuracy compared with currently available methods. The results were calibrated against COSMED K4b2 calorimeter readings. PMID:27170901

Walkability and cardiometabolic risk factors: Cross-sectional and longitudinal associations from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis.

PubMed

Braun, Lindsay M; Rodríguez, Daniel A; Evenson, Kelly R; Hirsch, Jana A; Moore, Kari A; Diez Roux, Ana V

2016-05-01

We used data from 3227 older adults in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (2004-2012) to explore cross-sectional and longitudinal associations between walkability and cardiometabolic risk factors. In cross-sectional analyses, linear regression was used to estimate associations of Street Smart Walk Score® with glucose, triglycerides, HDL and LDL cholesterol, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, and waist circumference, while logistic regression was used to estimate associations with odds of metabolic syndrome. Econometric fixed effects models were used to estimate longitudinal associations of changes in walkability with changes in each risk factor among participants who moved residential locations between 2004 and 2012 (n=583). Most cross-sectional and longitudinal associations were small and statistically non-significant. We found limited evidence that higher walkability was cross-sectionally associated with lower blood pressure but that increases in walkability were associated with increases in triglycerides and blood pressure over time. Further research over longer time periods is needed to understand the potential for built environment interventions to improve cardiometabolic health. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

High variation subarctic topsoil pollutant concentration prediction using neural network residual kriging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sergeev, A. P.; Tarasov, D. A.; Buevich, A. G.; Subbotina, I. E.; Shichkin, A. V.; Sergeeva, M. V.; Lvova, O. A.

2017-06-01

The work deals with the application of neural networks residual kriging (NNRK) to the spatial prediction of the abnormally distributed soil pollutant (Cr). It is known that combination of geostatistical interpolation approaches (kriging) and neural networks leads to significantly better prediction accuracy and productivity. Generalized regression neural networks and multilayer perceptrons are classes of neural networks widely used for the continuous function mapping. Each network has its own pros and cons; however both demonstrated fast training and good mapping possibilities. In the work, we examined and compared two combined techniques: generalized regression neural network residual kriging (GRNNRK) and multilayer perceptron residual kriging (MLPRK). The case study is based on the real data sets on surface contamination by chromium at a particular location of the subarctic Novy Urengoy, Russia, obtained during the previously conducted screening. The proposed models have been built, implemented and validated using ArcGIS and MATLAB environments. The networks structures have been chosen during a computer simulation based on the minimization of the RMSE. MLRPK showed the best predictive accuracy comparing to the geostatistical approach (kriging) and even to GRNNRK.

Concentration determination of collagen and proteoglycan in bovine nasal cartilage by Fourier transform infrared imaging and PLS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Xuexi; Xiao, Zhi-Yan; Yin, Jianhua; Xia, Yang

2014-09-01

Fourier transform infrared imaging (FTIRI) combined with chemometrics can be used to detect the structure of bio-macromolecule, measure the concentrations of some components, and so on. In this study, FTIRI with Partial Least-Squares (PLS) regression was applied to study the concentration of two main components in bovine nasal cartilage (BNC), collagen and proteoglycan. An infrared spectrum library was built by mixing the collagen and chondroitin 6-sulfate (main of proteoglycan) at different ratios. Some pretreatments are needed for building PLS model. FTIR images were collected from BNC sections at 6.25μm and 25μm pixel size. The spectra extracted from BNC-FTIR images were imported into the PLS regression program to predict the concentrations of collagen and proteoglycan. These PLS-determined concentrations are agreed with the result in our previous work and biochemical analytical results. The prediction shows that the concentrations of collagen and proteoglycan in BNC are comparative on the whole. However, the concentration of proteoglycan is a litter higher than that of collagen, to some extent.

Using Smartphone Sensors for Improving Energy Expenditure Estimation.

PubMed

Pande, Amit; Zhu, Jindan; Das, Aveek K; Zeng, Yunze; Mohapatra, Prasant; Han, Jay J

2015-01-01

Energy expenditure (EE) estimation is an important factor in tracking personal activity and preventing chronic diseases, such as obesity and diabetes. Accurate and real-time EE estimation utilizing small wearable sensors is a difficult task, primarily because the most existing schemes work offline or use heuristics. In this paper, we focus on accurate EE estimation for tracking ambulatory activities (walking, standing, climbing upstairs, or downstairs) of a typical smartphone user. We used built-in smartphone sensors (accelerometer and barometer sensor), sampled at low frequency, to accurately estimate EE. Using a barometer sensor, in addition to an accelerometer sensor, greatly increases the accuracy of EE estimation. Using bagged regression trees, a machine learning technique, we developed a generic regression model for EE estimation that yields upto 96% correlation with actual EE. We compare our results against the state-of-the-art calorimetry equations and consumer electronics devices (Fitbit and Nike+ FuelBand). The newly developed EE estimation algorithm demonstrated superior accuracy compared with currently available methods. The results were calibrated against COSMED K4b2 calorimeter readings.

Prediction of body mass index status from voice signals based on machine learning for automated medical applications.

PubMed

Lee, Bum Ju; Kim, Keun Ho; Ku, Boncho; Jang, Jun-Su; Kim, Jong Yeol

2013-05-01

The body mass index (BMI) provides essential medical information related to body weight for the treatment and prognosis prediction of diseases such as cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and stroke. We propose a method for the prediction of normal, overweight, and obese classes based only on the combination of voice features that are associated with BMI status, independently of weight and height measurements. A total of 1568 subjects were divided into 4 groups according to age and gender differences. We performed statistical analyses by analysis of variance (ANOVA) and Scheffe test to find significant features in each group. We predicted BMI status (normal, overweight, and obese) by a logistic regression algorithm and two ensemble classification algorithms (bagging and random forests) based on statistically significant features. In the Female-2030 group (females aged 20-40 years), classification experiments using an imbalanced (original) data set gave area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) values of 0.569-0.731 by logistic regression, whereas experiments using a balanced data set gave AUC values of 0.893-0.994 by random forests. AUC values in Female-4050 (females aged 41-60 years), Male-2030 (males aged 20-40 years), and Male-4050 (males aged 41-60 years) groups by logistic regression in imbalanced data were 0.585-0.654, 0.581-0.614, and 0.557-0.653, respectively. AUC values in Female-4050, Male-2030, and Male-4050 groups in balanced data were 0.629-0.893 by bagging, 0.707-0.916 by random forests, and 0.695-0.854 by bagging, respectively. In each group, we found discriminatory features showing statistical differences among normal, overweight, and obese classes. The results showed that the classification models built by logistic regression in imbalanced data were better than those built by the other two algorithms, and significant features differed according to age and gender groups. Our results could support the development of BMI diagnosis tools for real-time monitoring; such tools are considered helpful in improving automated BMI status diagnosis in remote healthcare or telemedicine and are expected to have applications in forensic and medical science. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Environmental chemicals mediated the effect of old housing on adult health problems: US NHANES, 2009-2010.

PubMed

Shiue, Ivy; Bramley, Glen

2015-01-01

Housing conditions affect occupants continuously, and health interventions have shown a positive association between housing investment or improvement and occupant's health. However, the sources of the housing problems were less understood. Since it was observed that lead dust and chloroanisoles released from housing (materials) as indoor pollutants affected child's health, we now aimed to examine the relationships among built year, environmental chemicals and individual health in adults in a national and population-based setting. Data were retrieved from the US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 2009-2010, including demographics, housing characteristics, self-reported health status, biomarkers and blood and urinary chemical concentrations. Adults aged 20 and above were included for statistical analysis (n = 5,793). Analysis involved chi-square test, t test, and survey-weighted general linear regression and logistic regression modelling. People who resided in older housing built before 1990 tended to report chronic bronchitis, liver problems, stroke, heart failure, diabetes, asthma and emphysema. Higher values in HDL cholesterol, blood lead and blood cadmium and having positive responses of hepatitis A, B, C and E antibodies among occupants were also observed. Furthermore, higher environmental chemical concentrations related to old housing including urinary cadmium, cobalt, platinum, mercury, 2,5-dichlorophenol and 2,4-dichlorophenol concentrations and mono-cyclohexyl phthalate and mono-isobutyl phthalate metabolites were shown in occupants as well. Older housing (≥30 years) seemed to contribute to the amount of environmental chemicals that affected human health. Regular monitoring, upgrading and renovation of housing to remove environmental chemicals and policy to support people in deprived situations against environmental injustice would be needed.

Time-series panel analysis (TSPA): multivariate modeling of temporal associations in psychotherapy process.

PubMed

Ramseyer, Fabian; Kupper, Zeno; Caspar, Franz; Znoj, Hansjörg; Tschacher, Wolfgang

2014-10-01

Processes occurring in the course of psychotherapy are characterized by the simple fact that they unfold in time and that the multiple factors engaged in change processes vary highly between individuals (idiographic phenomena). Previous research, however, has neglected the temporal perspective by its traditional focus on static phenomena, which were mainly assessed at the group level (nomothetic phenomena). To support a temporal approach, the authors introduce time-series panel analysis (TSPA), a statistical methodology explicitly focusing on the quantification of temporal, session-to-session aspects of change in psychotherapy. TSPA-models are initially built at the level of individuals and are subsequently aggregated at the group level, thus allowing the exploration of prototypical models. TSPA is based on vector auto-regression (VAR), an extension of univariate auto-regression models to multivariate time-series data. The application of TSPA is demonstrated in a sample of 87 outpatient psychotherapy patients who were monitored by postsession questionnaires. Prototypical mechanisms of change were derived from the aggregation of individual multivariate models of psychotherapy process. In a 2nd step, the associations between mechanisms of change (TSPA) and pre- to postsymptom change were explored. TSPA allowed a prototypical process pattern to be identified, where patient's alliance and self-efficacy were linked by a temporal feedback-loop. Furthermore, therapist's stability over time in both mastery and clarification interventions was positively associated with better outcomes. TSPA is a statistical tool that sheds new light on temporal mechanisms of change. Through this approach, clinicians may gain insight into prototypical patterns of change in psychotherapy. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

Predicting Subtype Selectivity for Adenosine Receptor Ligands with Three-Dimensional Biologically Relevant Spectrum (BRS-3D)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Song-Bing; Ben Hu; Kuang, Zheng-Kun; Wang, Dong; Kong, De-Xin

2016-11-01

Adenosine receptors (ARs) are potential therapeutic targets for Parkinson’s disease, diabetes, pain, stroke and cancers. Prediction of subtype selectivity is therefore important from both therapeutic and mechanistic perspectives. In this paper, we introduced a shape similarity profile as molecular descriptor, namely three-dimensional biologically relevant spectrum (BRS-3D), for AR selectivity prediction. Pairwise regression and discrimination models were built with the support vector machine methods. The average determination coefficient (r2) of the regression models was 0.664 (for test sets). The 2B-3 (A2B vs A3) model performed best with q2 = 0.769 for training sets (10-fold cross-validation), and r2 = 0.766, RMSE = 0.828 for test sets. The models’ robustness and stability were validated with 100 times resampling and 500 times Y-randomization. We compared the performance of BRS-3D with 3D descriptors calculated by MOE. BRS-3D performed as good as, or better than, MOE 3D descriptors. The performances of the discrimination models were also encouraging, with average accuracy (ACC) 0.912 and MCC 0.792 (test set). The 2A-3 (A2A vs A3) selectivity discrimination model (ACC = 0.882 and MCC = 0.715 for test set) outperformed an earlier reported one (ACC = 0.784). These results demonstrated that, through multiple conformation encoding, BRS-3D can be used as an effective molecular descriptor for AR subtype selectivity prediction.

A Predictive Score for Bronchopleural Fistula Established Using the French Database Epithor.

PubMed

Pforr, Arnaud; Pagès, Pierre-Benoit; Baste, Jean-Marc; Thomas, Pascal; Falcoz, Pierre-Emmanuel; Lepimpec Barthes, Francoise; Dahan, Marcel; Bernard, Alain

2016-01-01

Bronchopleural fistula (BPF) remains a rare but fatal complication of thoracic surgery. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a predictive model of BPF after pulmonary resection and to identify patients at high risk for BPF. From January 2005 to December 2012, 34,000 patients underwent major pulmonary resection (lobectomy, bilobectomy, or pneumonectomy) and were entered into the French National database Epithor. The primary outcome was the occurrence of postoperative BPF at 30 days. The logistic regression model was built using a backward stepwise variable selection. Bronchopleural fistula occurred in 318 patients (0.94%); its prevalence was 0.5% for lobectomy (n = 139), 2.2% for bilobectomy (n = 39), and 3% for pneumonectomy (n = 140). The mortality rate was 25.9% for lobectomy (n = 36), 16.7% for bilobectomy (n = 6), and 20% for pneumonectomy (n = 28). In the final model, nine variables were selected: sex, body mass index, dyspnea score, number of comorbidities per patient, bilobectomy, pneumonectomy, emergency surgery, sleeve resection, and the side of the resection. In the development data set, the C-index was 0.8 (95% confidence interval: 0.78 to 0.82). This model was well calibrated because the Hosmer-Lemeshow test was not significant (χ(2) = 10.5, p = 0.23). We then calculated the logistic regression coefficient to build the predictive score for BPF. This strong model could be easily used by surgeons to identify patient at high risk for BPF. This score needs to be confirmed prospectively in an independent cohort. Copyright © 2016 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Hydraulic-based empirical model for sediment and soil organic carbon loss on steep slopes for extreme rainstorms on the Chinese loess Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, L.; Li, Z. W.; Nie, X. D.; He, J. J.; Huang, B.; Chang, X. F.; Liu, C.; Xiao, H. B.; Wang, D. Y.

2017-11-01

Building a hydraulic-based empirical model for sediment and soil organic carbon (SOC) loss is significant because of the complex erosion process that includes gravitational erosion, ephemeral gully, and gully erosion for loess soils. To address this issue, a simulation of rainfall experiments was conducted in a 1 m × 5 m box on slope gradients of 15°, 20°, and 25° for four typical loess soils with different textures, namely, Ansai, Changwu, Suide, and Yangling. The simulated rainfall of 120 mm h-1 lasted for 45 min. Among the five hydraulic factors (i.e., flow velocity, runoff depth, shear stress, stream power, and unit stream power), flow velocity and stream power showed close relationships with SOC concentration, especially the average flow velocity at 2 m from the outlet where the runoff attained the maximum sediment load. Flow velocity controlled SOC enrichment by affecting the suspension-saltation transport associated with the clay and silt contents in sediments. In consideration of runoff rate, average flow velocity at 2 m location from the outlet, and slope steepness as input variables, a hydraulic-based sediment and SOC loss model was built on the basis of the relationships of hydraulic factors to sediment and SOC loss. Nonlinear regression models were built to calculate the parameters of the model. The difference between the effective and dispersed median diameter (δD50) or the SOC content of the original soil served as the independent variable. The hydraulic-based sediment and SOC loss model exhibited good performance for the Suide and Changwu soils, that is, these soils contained lower amounts of aggregates than those of Ansai and Yangling soils. The hydraulic-based empirical model for sediment and SOC loss can serve as an important reference for physical-based sediment models and can bring new insights into SOC loss prediction when serious erosion occurs on steep slopes.

A radar-based hydrological model for flash flood prediction in the dry regions of Israel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ronen, Alon; Peleg, Nadav; Morin, Efrat

2014-05-01

Flash floods are floods which follow shortly after rainfall events, and are among the most destructive natural disasters that strike people and infrastructures in humid and arid regions alike. Using a hydrological model for the prediction of flash floods in gauged and ungauged basins can help mitigate the risk and damage they cause. The sparsity of rain gauges in arid regions requires the use of radar measurements in order to get reliable quantitative precipitation estimations (QPE). While many hydrological models use radar data, only a handful do so in dry climate. This research presents a robust radar-based hydro-meteorological model built specifically for dry climate. Using this model we examine the governing factors of flash floods in the arid and semi-arid regions of Israel in particular and in dry regions in general. The hydrological model built is a semi-distributed, physically-based model, which represents the main hydrological processes in the area, namely infiltration, flow routing and transmission losses. Three infiltration functions were examined - Initial & Constant, SCS-CN and Green&Ampt. The parameters for each function were found by calibration based on 53 flood events in three catchments, and validation was performed using 55 flood events in six catchments. QPE were obtained from a C-band weather radar and adjusted using a weighted multiple regression method based on a rain gauge network. Antecedent moisture conditions were calculated using a daily recharge assessment model (DREAM). We found that the SCS-CN infiltration function performed better than the other two, with reasonable agreement between calculated and measured peak discharge. Effects of storm characteristics were studied using synthetic storms from a high resolution weather generator (HiReS-WG), and showed a strong correlation between storm speed, storm direction and rain depth over desert soils to flood volume and peak discharge.

Modeling the intraurban variation in nitrogen dioxide in urban areas in Kathmandu Valley, Nepal.

PubMed

Gurung, Anobha; Levy, Jonathan I; Bell, Michelle L

2017-05-01

With growing urbanization, traffic has become one of the main sources of air pollution in Nepal. Understanding the impact of air pollution on health requires estimation of exposure. Land use regression (LUR) modeling is widely used to investigate intraurban variation in air pollution for Western cities, but LUR models are relatively scarce in developing countries. In this study, we developed LUR models to characterize intraurban variation of nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) in urban areas of Kathmandu Valley, Nepal, one of the fastest urbanizing areas in South Asia. Over the study area, 135 monitoring sites were selected using stratified random sampling based on building density and road density along with purposeful sampling. In 2014, four sampling campaigns were performed, one per season, for two weeks each. NO 2 was measured using duplicate Palmes tubes at 135 sites, with additional information on nitric oxide (NO), NO 2 , and nitrogen oxide (NOx) concentrations derived from Ogawa badges at 28 sites. Geographical variables (e.g., road network, land use, built area) were used as predictor variables in LUR modeling, considering buffers 25-400m around each monitoring site. Annual average NO 2 by site ranged from 5.7 to 120ppb for the study area, with higher concentrations in the Village Development Committees (VDCs) of Kathmandu and Lalitpur than in Kirtipur, Thimi, and Bhaktapur, and with variability present within each VDC. In the final LUR model, length of major road, built area, and industrial area were positively associated with NO 2 concentration while normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) was negatively associated with NO 2 concentration (R 2 =0.51). Cross-validation of the results confirmed the reliability of the model. The combination of passive NO 2 sampling and LUR modeling techniques allowed for characterization of nitrogen dioxide patterns in a developing country setting, demonstrating spatial variability and high pollution levels. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

[Measurement of soil organic matter and available K based on SPA-LS-SVM].

PubMed

Zhang, Hai-Liang; Liu, Xue-Mei; He, Yong

2014-05-01

Visible and short wave infrared spectroscopy (Vis/SW-NIRS) was investigated in the present study for measurement of soil organic matter (OM) and available potassium (K). Four types of pretreatments including smoothing, SNV, MSC and SG smoothing+first derivative were adopted to eliminate the system noises and external disturbances. Then partial least squares regression (PLSR) and least squares-support vector machine (LS-SVM) models were implemented for calibration models. The LS-SVM model was built by using characteristic wavelength based on successive projections algorithm (SPA). Simultaneously, the performance of LSSVM models was compared with PLSR models. The results indicated that LS-SVM models using characteristic wavelength as inputs based on SPA outperformed PLSR models. The optimal SPA-LS-SVM models were achieved, and the correlation coefficient (r), and RMSEP were 0. 860 2 and 2. 98 for OM and 0. 730 5 and 15. 78 for K, respectively. The results indicated that visible and short wave near infrared spectroscopy (Vis/SW-NIRS) (325 approximately 1 075 nm) combined with LS-SVM based on SPA could be utilized as a precision method for the determination of soil properties.

Lunar Silicon Abundance determined by Kaguya Gamma-ray Spectrometer and Chandrayaan-1 Moon Mineralogy Mapper

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Kyeong; Berezhnoy, Alexey; Wöhler, Christian; Grumpe, Arne; Rodriguez, Alexis; Hasebe, Nobuyuki; Van Gasselt, Stephan

2016-07-01

Using Kaguya GRS data, we investigated Si distribution on the Moon, based on study of the 4934 keV Si gamma ray peak caused by interaction between thermal neutrons and lunar Si-28 atoms. A Si peak analysis for a grid of 10 degrees in longitude and latitude was accomplished by the IRAP Aquarius program followed by a correction for altitude and thermal neutron density. A spectral parameter based regression model of the Si distribution was built for latitudes between 60°S and 60°N based on the continuum slopes, band depths, widths and minimum wavelengths of the absorption bands near 1 μμm and 2 μμm. Based on these regression models a nearly global cpm (counts per minute) map of Si with a resolution of 20 pixels per degree was constructed. The construction of a nearly global map of lunar Si abundances has been achieved by a combination of regression-based analysis of KGRS cpm data and M ^{3} spectral reflectance data, it has been calibrated with respect to returned sample-based wt% values. The Si abundances estimated with our method systematically exceed those of the LP GRS Si data set but are consistent with typical Si abundances of lunar basalt samples (in the maria) and feldspathic mineral samples (in the highlands). Our Si map shows that the Si abundance values on the Moon are typically between 17 and 28 wt%. The obtained Si map will provide an important aspect in both understanding the distribution of minerals and the evolution of the lunar surface since its formation.

Prediction of Multiple Infections After Severe Burn Trauma: a Prospective Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Yan, Shuangchun; Tsurumi, Amy; Que, Yok-Ai; Ryan, Colleen M.; Bandyopadhaya, Arunava; Morgan, Alexander A.; Flaherty, Patrick J.; Tompkins, Ronald G.; Rahme, Laurence G.

2014-01-01

Objective To develop predictive models for early triage of burn patients based on hyper-susceptibility to repeated infections. Background Infection remains a major cause of mortality and morbidity after severe trauma, demanding new strategies to combat infections. Models for infection prediction are lacking. Methods Secondary analysis of 459 burn patients (≥16 years old) with ≥20% total body surface area burns recruited from six US burn centers. We compared blood transcriptomes with a 180-h cut-off on the injury-to-transcriptome interval of 47 patients (≤1 infection episode) to those of 66 hyper-susceptible patients (multiple [≥2] infection episodes [MIE]). We used LASSO regression to select biomarkers and multivariate logistic regression to built models, accuracy of which were assessed by area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and cross-validation. Results Three predictive models were developed covariates of: (1) clinical characteristics; (2) expression profiles of 14 genomic probes; (3) combining (1) and (2). The genomic and clinical models were highly predictive of MIE status (AUROCGenomic = 0.946 [95% CI, 0.906–0.986]); AUROCClinical = 0.864 [CI, 0.794–0.933]; AUROCGenomic/AUROCClinical P = 0.044). Combined model has an increased AUROCCombined of 0.967 (CI, 0.940–0.993) compared to the individual models (AUROCCombined/AUROCClinical P = 0.0069). Hyper-susceptible patients show early alterations in immune-related signaling pathways, epigenetic modulation and chromatin remodeling. Conclusions Early triage of burn patients more susceptible to infections can be made using clinical characteristics and/or genomic signatures. Genomic signature suggests new insights into the pathophysiology of hyper-susceptibility to infection may lead to novel potential therapeutic or prophylactic targets. PMID:24950278

[Evaluation of perceptions of physical activity related built environment among urban adults with different characteristics in Hangzhou].

PubMed

Ren, Yanjun; Liu, Qingmin; Cao, Chengjian; Su, Meng; Lyu, Jun; Li, Liming

2015-10-01

To understand the perceptions of physical activity-related built environment among urban adults in Hangzhou. A face-to-face interview was conducted among the urban residents aged 25-59 years selected through multistage stratified random sampling in Hangzhou in 2012. The Neighborhood Environment Walkability Scale-Abbreviated (NEWS-A) was used to assess the perception of built environment among residents, including residential building density, the diversities of stores, facilities and others, the accessibility to public service, the street connectivity, walking/cycling facilities, aesthetics, traffic safety, and public security. The multilevel logistic regression model was used to assess the demographic characteristics, BMI and other factors' influence on people's perceptions. Among 1 362 local residents surveyed, no sex, martial status and occupation specific significant differences in the perception of built environment were found. After adjusting other factors, the age group 45-59 years was positively related to the score of street connectivity (OR=2.02, 95% CI: 1.30-3.15). The educational level of college or higher was positively associated with the score of residential building density (OR=1.97, 95% CI: 1.29-3.00) but negatively associated with the score of facility variety (OR=0.65, 95% CI: 0.43-0.97). Overweight or obesity was negatively related to the scores of walking/cycling ways (OR=0.67, 95%CI: 0.48-0.95) and public security (OR=0.75, 95% CI: 0.57-0.99). Compared with the class I residential area, the people in class III residential area had lower perception scores on facility diversity (OR=0.11, 95% CI: 0.04-0.30), accessibility to public service (OR=0.33, 95% CI: 0.11-0.95), street connectivity (OR=0.30, 95% CI: 0.11-0.86) and traffic safety (OR=0.39, 95% CI: 0.17-0.91). The perceptions of physical activity-related built environment was associated with age, educational level, BMI and residential area. The personal characteristics should be considered while performing environment intervention on physical activity.

Comparative evaluation of human heat stress indices on selected hospital admissions in Sydney, Australia.

PubMed

Goldie, James; Alexander, Lisa; Lewis, Sophie C; Sherwood, Steven

2017-08-01

To find appropriate regression model specifications for counts of the daily hospital admissions of a Sydney cohort and determine which human heat stress indices best improve the models' fit. We built parent models of eight daily counts of admission records using weather station observations, census population estimates and public holiday data. We added heat stress indices; models with lower Akaike Information Criterion scores were judged a better fit. Five of the eight parent models demonstrated adequate fit. Daily maximum Simplified Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (sWBGT) consistently improved fit more than most other indices; temperature and heatwave indices also modelled some health outcomes well. Humidity and heat-humidity indices better fit counts of patients who died following admission. Maximum sWBGT is an ideal measure of heat stress for these types of Sydney hospital admissions. Simple temperature indices are a good fallback where a narrower range of conditions is investigated. Implications for public health: This study confirms the importance of selecting appropriate heat stress indices for modelling. Epidemiologists projecting Sydney hospital admissions should use maximum sWBGT as a common measure of heat stress. Health organisations interested in short-range forecasting may prefer simple temperature indices. © 2017 The Authors.

Can evolutionary theory explain the slow development of knowledge about the level of safety built into roads?

PubMed

Elvik, Rune

2017-09-01

In several papers, Hauer (1988, 1989, 2000a, 2000b, 2016) has argued that the level of safety built into roads is unpremeditated, i.e. not the result of decisions based on knowledge of the safety impacts of design standards. Hauer has pointed out that the development of knowledge about the level of safety built into roads has been slow and remains incomplete even today. Based on these observations, this paper asks whether evolutionary theory can contribute to explaining the slow development of knowledge. A key proposition of evolutionary theory is that knowledge is discovered through a process of learning-by-doing; it is not necessarily produced intentionally by means of research or development. An unintentional discovery of knowledge is treacherous as far as road safety is concerned, since an apparently effective safety treatment may simply be the result of regression-to-the-mean. The importance of regression-to-the-mean was not fully understood until about 1980, and a substantial part of what was regarded as known at that time may have been based on studies not controlling for regression-to-the-mean. An attempt to provide an axiomatic foundation for designing a safe road system was made by Gunnarsson and Lindström (1970). This had the ambition of providing universal guidelines that would facilitate a preventive approach, rather than the reactive approach based on accident history (i.e. designing a system known to be safe, rather than reacting to events in a system of unknown safety). Three facts are notable about these principles. First, they are stated in very general terms and do not address many of the details of road design or traffic control. Second, they are not based on experience showing their effectiveness. Third, they are partial and do not address the interaction between elements of the road traffic system, in particular road user adaptation to system design. Another notable fact consistent with evolutionary theory, is that the safety margins built into various design elements have been continuously eroded by the development of bigger and faster motor vehicles, that can only be operated safely if roads are wider and straighter than they needed to be when motor vehicles were smaller and moved slower. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Machine learning approaches for estimation of prediction interval for the model output.

PubMed

Shrestha, Durga L; Solomatine, Dimitri P

2006-03-01

A novel method for estimating prediction uncertainty using machine learning techniques is presented. Uncertainty is expressed in the form of the two quantiles (constituting the prediction interval) of the underlying distribution of prediction errors. The idea is to partition the input space into different zones or clusters having similar model errors using fuzzy c-means clustering. The prediction interval is constructed for each cluster on the basis of empirical distributions of the errors associated with all instances belonging to the cluster under consideration and propagated from each cluster to the examples according to their membership grades in each cluster. Then a regression model is built for in-sample data using computed prediction limits as targets, and finally, this model is applied to estimate the prediction intervals (limits) for out-of-sample data. The method was tested on artificial and real hydrologic data sets using various machine learning techniques. Preliminary results show that the method is superior to other methods estimating the prediction interval. A new method for evaluating performance for estimating prediction interval is proposed as well.

Assessing accuracy of a probabilistic model for very large fire in the Rocky Mountains: A High Park Fire case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stavros, E.; Abatzoglou, J. T.; Larkin, N.; McKenzie, D.; Steel, A.

2012-12-01

Across the western United States, the largest wildfires account for a major proportion of the area burned and substantially affect mountain forests and their associated ecosystem services, among which is pristine air quality. These fires commandeer national attention and significant fire suppression resources. Despite efforts to understand the influence of fuel loading, climate, and weather on annual area burned, few studies have focused on understanding what abiotic factors enable and drive the very largest wildfires. We investigated the correlation between both antecedent climate and in-situ biophysical variables and very large (>20,000 ha) fires in the western United States from 1984 to 2009. We built logistic regression models, at the spatial scale of the national Geographic Area Coordination Centers (GACCs), to estimate the probability that a given day is conducive to a very large wildfire. Models vary in accuracy and in which variables are the best predictors. In a case study of the conditions of the High Park Fire, neighboring Fort Collins, Colorado, occurring in early summer 2012, we evaluate the predictive accuracy of the Rocky Mountain model.

An observational study identifying obese subgroups among older adults at increased risk of mobility disability: do perceptions of the neighborhood environment matter?

PubMed

King, Abby C; Salvo, Deborah; Banda, Jorge A; Ahn, David K; Gill, Thomas M; Miller, Michael; Newman, Anne B; Fielding, Roger A; Siordia, Carlos; Moore, Spencer; Folta, Sara; Spring, Bonnie; Manini, Todd; Pahor, Marco

2015-12-18

Obesity is an increasingly prevalent condition among older adults, yet relatively little is known about how built environment variables may be associated with obesity in older age groups. This is particularly the case for more vulnerable older adults already showing functional limitations associated with subsequent disability. The Lifestyle Interventions and Independence for Elders (LIFE) trial dataset (n = 1600) was used to explore the associations between perceived built environment variables and baseline obesity levels. Age-stratified recursive partitioning methods were applied to identify distinct subgroups with varying obesity prevalence. Among participants aged 70-78 years, four distinct subgroups, defined by combinations of perceived environment and race-ethnicity variables, were identified. The subgroups with the lowest obesity prevalence (45.5-59.4%) consisted of participants who reported living in neighborhoods with higher residential density. Among participants aged 79-89 years, the subgroup (of three distinct subgroups identified) with the lowest obesity prevalence (19.4%) consisted of non-African American/Black participants who reported living in neighborhoods with friends or acquaintances similar in demographic characteristics to themselves. Overall support for the partitioned subgroupings was obtained using mixed model regression analysis. The results suggest that, in combination with race/ethnicity, features of the perceived neighborhood built and social environments differentiated distinct groups of vulnerable older adults from different age strata that differed in obesity prevalence. Pending further verification, the results may help to inform subsequent targeting of such subgroups for further investigation. Clinicaltrials.gov Identifier =  NCT01072500.

Early post-stroke cognition in stroke rehabilitation patients predicts functional outcome at 13 months.

PubMed

Wagle, Jørgen; Farner, Lasse; Flekkøy, Kjell; Bruun Wyller, Torgeir; Sandvik, Leiv; Fure, Brynjar; Stensrød, Brynhild; Engedal, Knut

2011-01-01

To identify prognostic factors associated with functional outcome at 13 months in a sample of stroke rehabilitation patients. Specifically, we hypothesized that cognitive functioning early after stroke would predict long-term functional outcome independently of other factors. 163 stroke rehabilitation patients underwent a structured neuropsychological examination 2-3 weeks after hospital admittance, and their functional status was subsequently evaluated 13 months later with the modified Rankin Scale (mRS) as outcome measure. Three predictive models were built using linear regression analyses: a biological model (sociodemographics, apolipoprotein E genotype, prestroke vascular factors, lesion characteristics and neurological stroke-related impairment); a functional model (pre- and early post-stroke cognitive functioning, personal and instrumental activities of daily living, ADL, and depressive symptoms), and a combined model (including significant variables, with p value <0.05, from the biological and functional models). A combined model of 4 variables best predicted long-term functional outcome with explained variance of 49%: neurological impairment (National Institute of Health Stroke Scale; β = 0.402, p < 0.001), age (β = 0.233, p = 0.001), post-stroke cognitive functioning (Repeatable Battery of Neuropsychological Status, RBANS; β = -0.248, p = 0.001) and prestroke personal ADL (Barthel Index; β = -0.217, p = 0.002). Further linear regression analyses of which RBANS indexes and subtests best predicted long-term functional outcome showed that Coding (β = -0.484, p < 0.001) and Figure Copy (β = -0.233, p = 0.002) raw scores at baseline explained 42% of the variance in mRS scores at follow-up. Early post-stroke cognitive functioning as measured by the RBANS is a significant and independent predictor of long-term functional post-stroke outcome. Copyright © 2011 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Supplantation versus Generative Models: Implications for Designers of Instructional Text.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Smith, Patricia L.

Two instructional design alternatives are described and discussed: (1) the supplantation model of Ausburn and Ausburn (1978), where learning strategies are built into the instructional materials; and (2) a generative design model, where strategies are "built" into the learner. These contrasting models are proposed as representing the…

Neighborhood walkability, physical activity, and walking for transportation: A cross-sectional study of older adults living on low income.

PubMed

Chudyk, Anna M; McKay, Heather A; Winters, Meghan; Sims-Gould, Joanie; Ashe, Maureen C

2017-04-10

Walking, and in particular, outdoor walking, is the most common form of physical activity for older adults. To date, no study investigated the association between the neighborhood built environment and physical activity habits of older adults of low SES. Thus, our overarching aim was to examine the association between the neighborhood built environment and the spectrum of physical activity and walking for transportation in older adults of low socioeconomic status. Cross-sectional data were from the Walk the Talk Study, collected in 2012. Participants (n = 161, mean age = 74 years) were in receipt of a rental subsidy for low income individuals and resided in neighbourhoods across Metro Vancouver, Canada. We used the Street Smart Walk Score to objectively characterize the built environment main effect (walkability), accelerometry for objective physical activity, and the Community Healthy Activities Model Program for Seniors (CHAMPS) questionnaire to measure walking for transportation. We used regression analyses to examine associations of objectively measured physical activity [total volume, light intensity and moderate intensity physical activity (MVPA)] and self-reported walking for transportation (any, frequency, duration) with walkability. We adjusted analyses for person- and environment-level factors associated with older adult physical activity. Neighbourhood walkability was not associated with physical activity volume or intensity and self-reported walking for transportation, with one exception. Each 10-point increase in Street Smart Walk Score was associated with a 45% greater odds of any walking for transportation (compared with none; OR = 1.45, 95% confidence interval = 1.18, 1.78). Sociodemographic, physical function and attitudinal factors were significant predictors of physical activity across our models. The lack of associations between most of the explored outcomes may be due to the complexity of the relation between the person and environment. Given that this is the first study to explore these associations specifically in older adults living on low income, this study should be replicated in other settings.

Accounting for the daily locations visited in the study of the built environment correlates of recreational walking (the RECORD Cohort Study).

PubMed

Perchoux, Camille; Kestens, Yan; Brondeel, Ruben; Chaix, Basile

2015-12-01

Understanding how built environment characteristics influence recreational walking is of the utmost importance to develop population-level strategies to increase levels of physical activity in a sustainable manner. This study analyzes the residential and non-residential environmental correlates of recreational walking, using precisely geocoded activity space data. The point-based locations regularly visited by 4365 participants of the RECORD Cohort Study (Residential Environment and CORonary heart Disease) were collected between 2011 and 2013 in the Paris region using the VERITAS software (Visualization and Evaluation of Regular Individual Travel destinations and Activity Spaces). Zero-inflated negative binomial regressions were used to investigate associations between both residential and non-residential environmental exposure and overall self-reported recreational walking over 7 days. Density of destinations, presence of a lake or waterway, and neighborhood education were associated with an increase in the odds of reporting any recreational walking time. Only the density of destinations was associated with an increase in time spent walking for recreational purpose. Considering the recreational locations visited (i.e., sports and cultural destinations) in addition to the residential neighborhood in the calculation of exposure improved the model fit and increased the environment-walking associations, compared to a model accounting only for the residential space (Akaike Information Criterion equal to 52797 compared to 52815). Creating an environment supportive to walking around recreational locations may particularly stimulate recreational walking among people willing to use these facilities. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Non-destructive crystal size determination in geological samples of archaeological use by means of infrared spectroscopy.

PubMed

Olivares, M; Larrañaga, A; Irazola, M; Sarmiento, A; Murelaga, X; Etxebarria, N

2012-08-30

The determination of crystal size of chert samples can provide suitable information about the raw material used for the manufacture of archeological items. X-ray diffraction (XRD) has been widely used for this purpose in several scientific areas. However, the historical value of archeological pieces makes this procedure sometimes unfeasible and thus, non-invasive new analytical approaches are required. In this sense, a new method was developed relating the crystal size obtained by means of XRD and infrared spectroscopy (IR) using partial least squares regression. The IR spectra collected from a large amount of different geological chert samples of archeological use were pre-processed following different treatments (i.e., derivatization or sample-wise normalization) to obtain the best regression model. The full cross-validation was satisfactorily validated using real samples and the experimental root mean standard error of precision value was 165 Å whereas the average precision of the estimated size value was 3%. The features of infrared bands were also evaluated in order to know the background of the prediction ability. In the studied case, the variance in the model was associated to the differences in the characteristic stretching and bending infrared bands of SiO(2). Based on this fact, it would be feasible to estimate the crystal size if it is built beforehand a chemometric model relating the size measured by standard methods and the IR spectra. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Estimation of trabecular bone parameters in children from multisequence MRI using texture-based regression

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lekadir, Karim, E-mail: karim.lekadir@upf.edu; Hoogendoorn, Corné; Armitage, Paul

Purpose: This paper presents a statistical approach for the prediction of trabecular bone parameters from low-resolution multisequence magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in children, thus addressing the limitations of high-resolution modalities such as HR-pQCT, including the significant exposure of young patients to radiation and the limited applicability of such modalities to peripheral bones in vivo. Methods: A statistical predictive model is constructed from a database of MRI and HR-pQCT datasets, to relate the low-resolution MRI appearance in the cancellous bone to the trabecular parameters extracted from the high-resolution images. The description of the MRI appearance is achieved between subjects by usingmore » a collection of feature descriptors, which describe the texture properties inside the cancellous bone, and which are invariant to the geometry and size of the trabecular areas. The predictive model is built by fitting to the training data a nonlinear partial least square regression between the input MRI features and the output trabecular parameters. Results: Detailed validation based on a sample of 96 datasets shows correlations >0.7 between the trabecular parameters predicted from low-resolution multisequence MRI based on the proposed statistical model and the values extracted from high-resolution HRp-QCT. Conclusions: The obtained results indicate the promise of the proposed predictive technique for the estimation of trabecular parameters in children from multisequence MRI, thus reducing the need for high-resolution radiation-based scans for a fragile population that is under development and growth.« less

Use of segmented constrained layer damping treatment for improved helicopter aeromechanical stability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Qiang; Chattopadhyay, Aditi; Gu, Haozhong; Liu, Qiang; Chattopadhyay, Aditi; Zhou, Xu

2000-08-01

The use of a special type of smart material, known as segmented constrained layer (SCL) damping, is investigated for improved rotor aeromechanical stability. The rotor blade load-carrying member is modeled using a composite box beam with arbitrary wall thickness. The SCLs are bonded to the upper and lower surfaces of the box beam to provide passive damping. A finite-element model based on a hybrid displacement theory is used to accurately capture the transverse shear effects in the composite primary structure and the viscoelastic and the piezoelectric layers within the SCL. Detailed numerical studies are presented to assess the influence of the number of actuators and their locations for improved aeromechanical stability. Ground and air resonance analysis models are implemented in the rotor blade built around the composite box beam with segmented SCLs. A classic ground resonance model and an air resonance model are used in the rotor-body coupled stability analysis. The Pitt dynamic inflow model is used in the air resonance analysis under hover condition. Results indicate that the surface bonded SCLs significantly increase rotor lead-lag regressive modal damping in the coupled rotor-body system.

The effects of built environment attributes on physical activity-related health and health care costs outcomes in Australia.

PubMed

Zapata-Diomedi, Belen; Herrera, Ana Maria Mantilla; Veerman, J Lennert

2016-11-01

Attributes of the built environment can positively influence physical activity of urban populations, which results in health and economic benefits. In this study, we derived scenarios from the literature for the association built environment-physical activity and used a mathematical model to translate improvements in physical activity to health-adjusted life years and health care costs. We modelled 28 scenarios representing a diverse range of built environment attributes including density, diversity of land use, availability of destinations, distance to transit, design and neighbourhood walkability. Our results indicated potential health gains in 24 of the 28 modelled built environment attributes. Health care cost savings due to prevented physical activity-related diseases ranged between A$1300 to A$105,355 per 100,000 adults per year. On the other hand, additional health care costs of prolonged life years attributable to improvements in physical activity were nearly 50% higher than the estimated health care costs savings. Our results give an indication of the potential health benefits of investing in physical activity-friendly built environments. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Biodiversity and depressive symptoms in Mexican adults: Exploration of beneficial environmental effects].

PubMed

Duarte-Tagles, Héctor; Salinas-Rodríguez, Aarón; Idrovo, Álvaro J; Búrquez, Alberto; Corral-Verdugo, Víctor

2015-08-01

Depression is a highly prevalent illness among adults, and it is the second most frequently reported mental disorder in urban settings in México. Exposure to natural environments and its components may improve the mental health of the population. To evaluate the association between biodiversity indicators and the prevalence of depressive symptoms among the adult population (20 to 65 years of age) in México. Information from the Encuesta Nacional de Salud y Nutrición 2006 (ENSANUT 2006) and the Compendio de Estadísticas Ambientales 2008 was analyzed. A biodiversity index was constructed based on the species richness and ecoregions in each state. A multilevel logistic regression model was built with random intercepts and a multiple logistic regression was generated with clustering by state. The factors associated with depressive symptoms were being female, self-perceived as indigenous, lower education level, not living with a partner, lack of steady paid work, having a chronic illness and drinking alcohol. The biodiversity index was found to be inversely associated with the prevalence of depressive symptoms when defined as a continuous variable, and the results from the regression were grouped by state (OR=0.71; 95% CI = 0.59-0.87). Although the design was cross-sectional, this study adds to the evidence of the potential benefits to mental health from contact with nature and its components.

Predicting Occurrence of Spine Surgery Complications Using "Big Data" Modeling of an Administrative Claims Database.

PubMed

Ratliff, John K; Balise, Ray; Veeravagu, Anand; Cole, Tyler S; Cheng, Ivan; Olshen, Richard A; Tian, Lu

2016-05-18

Postoperative metrics are increasingly important in determining standards of quality for physicians and hospitals. Although complications following spinal surgery have been described, procedural and patient variables have yet to be incorporated into a predictive model of adverse-event occurrence. We sought to develop a predictive model of complication occurrence after spine surgery. We used longitudinal prospective data from a national claims database and developed a predictive model incorporating complication type and frequency of occurrence following spine surgery procedures. We structured our model to assess the impact of features such as preoperative diagnosis, patient comorbidities, location in the spine, anterior versus posterior approach, whether fusion had been performed, whether instrumentation had been used, number of levels, and use of bone morphogenetic protein (BMP). We assessed a variety of adverse events. Prediction models were built using logistic regression with additive main effects and logistic regression with main effects as well as all 2 and 3-factor interactions. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regularization was used to select features. Competing approaches included boosted additive trees and the classification and regression trees (CART) algorithm. The final prediction performance was evaluated by estimating the area under a receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) as predictions were applied to independent validation data and compared with the Charlson comorbidity score. The model was developed from 279,135 records of patients with a minimum duration of follow-up of 30 days. Preliminary assessment showed an adverse-event rate of 13.95%, well within norms reported in the literature. We used the first 80% of the records for training (to predict adverse events) and the remaining 20% of the records for validation. There was remarkable similarity among methods, with an AUC of 0.70 for predicting the occurrence of adverse events. The AUC using the Charlson comorbidity score was 0.61. The described model was more accurate than Charlson scoring (p < 0.01). We present a modeling effort based on administrative claims data that predicts the occurrence of complications after spine surgery. We believe that the development of a predictive modeling tool illustrating the risk of complication occurrence after spine surgery will aid in patient counseling and improve the accuracy of risk modeling strategies. Copyright © 2016 by The Journal of Bone and Joint Surgery, Incorporated.

Local health department leadership strategies for healthy built environments.

PubMed

Kuiper, Heather; Jackson, Richard J; Barna, Stefi; Satariano, William A

2012-01-01

The built environment is an important but less-recognized health determinant, and local health departments need expanded guidance to address it. In such situations, leadership is particularly relevant. To assess whether and how local public and environmental health leaders increase their departments' health-promoting impact on built environment design, and what pitfalls they should avoid. Mixed-methods employing cross-sectional surveys and a comparative case study. Local public and environmental health departments. PARTICIPANTS SURVEY: A total of 159 (89%) health officers, health directors, and environmental health directors from all 62 local jurisdictions in California. Case-Study: Three departments, 12 cases, 36 health and land-use professionals, and 30 key informants. The study measured the influence of leadership practices on health departments' built environment-related collaborations, land use activities, policy developments, and contributions to physical changes. Quantitative multivariate linear and logistic regression were used. Case-study content analysis and pattern-matching, which related strong and weak leadership practices to outcomes, were also employed. Departments having highly innovative leaders with positive attitudes had greater odds of achieving physical changes to the built environment (OR: 4.5, 3.4, respectively). Leadership that most prepared their departments for built environment work (by updating staffing, structure, and strategy) tripled interagency and cross-sector collaboration (OR: 3.4). Leadership of successful departments consistently (1) established and managed a healthy built environment vision, (2) cultivated innovation, (3) supported, empowered and protected staff, (4) directly engaged in land use and transportation processes, (5) established direct contacts with directors in other departments, and (6) leveraged their professional reputation. Inconsistency in these practices was twice as common among failure as success cases (80%, 43%). Local health leadership underlies public and environmental health departments' community design efforts and should receive technical support and targeted resources to do so effectively.

The relationship between the quality of the built environment and the quality of life of people with dementia in residential care.

PubMed

Fleming, Richard; Goodenough, Belinda; Low, Lee-Fay; Chenoweth, Lynn; Brodaty, Henry

2016-07-01

While there is considerable evidence on the impact of specific design features on problems associated with dementia, the link between the quality of the built environment and quality of life of people with dementia is largely unexplored. This study explored the environmental and personal characteristics that are associated with quality of life in people with dementia living in residential aged care. Data were obtained from 275 residents of 35 aged care homes and analysed using linear regression. The quality of the built environment was significantly associated with the quality of life of the resident measured by global self-report. Environmental ratings were not associated with proxy or detailed self-report ratings. Higher quality of life is associated with buildings that facilitate engagement with a variety of activities both inside and outside, are familiar, provide a variety of private and community spaces and the amenities and opportunities to take part in domestic activities. © The Author(s) 2014.

Predicting hepatotoxicity using ToxCast in vitro bioactivity and ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Background: The U.S. EPA ToxCastTM program is screening thousands of environmental chemicals for bioactivity using hundreds of high-throughput in vitro assays to build predictive models of toxicity. We represented chemicals based on bioactivity and chemical structure descriptors then used supervised machine learning to predict their hepatotoxic effects.Results: A set of 677 chemicals were represented by 711 in vitro bioactivity descriptors (from ToxCast assays), 4,376 chemical structure descriptors (from QikProp, OpenBabel, PADEL, and PubChem), and three hepatotoxicity categories (from animal studies). Hepatotoxicants were defined by rat liver histopathology observed after chronic chemical testing and grouped into hypertrophy (161), injury (101) and proliferative lesions (99). Classifiers were built using six machine learning algorithms: linear discriminant analysis (LDA), Naïve Bayes (NB), support vector classification (SVM), classification and regression trees (CART), k-nearest neighbors (KNN) and an ensemble of classifiers (ENSMB). Classifiers of hepatotoxicity were built using chemical structure, ToxCast bioactivity, and a hybrid representation. Predictive performance was evaluated using 10-fold cross-validation testing and in-loop, filter-based, feature subset selection. Hybrid classifiers had the best balanced accuracy for predicting hypertrophy (0.78±0.08), injury (0.73±0.10) and proliferative lesions (0.72±0.09). Though chemical and bioactivity class

A Disadvantaged Advantage in Walkability: Findings from ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Urban form-the structure of the built environment-can influence physical activity, yet little is known about how walkable design differs according to neighborhood sociodemographic composition. We studied how walkable urban form varies by neighborhood sociodemographic composition, region, and urbanicity across the United States. Using linear regression models and 2000-2001 US Census data, we investigated the relationship between 5 neighborhood census characteristics (income, education, racial/ethnic composition, age distribution, and sex) and 5 walkability indicators in almost 65,000 census tracts in 48 states and the District of Columbia. Data on the built environment were obtained from the RAND Corporation's (Santa Monica, California) Center for Population Health and Health Disparities (median block length, street segment, and node density) and the US Geological Survey's National Land Cover Database (proportion open space and proportion highly developed). Disadvantaged neighborhoods and those with more educated residents were more walkable (i.e., shorter block length, greater street node density, more developed land use, and higher density of street segments). However, tracts with a higher proportion of children and older adults were less walkable (fewer street nodes and lower density of street segments), after adjustment for region and level of urbanicity. Research and policy on the walkability-health link should give nuanced attention to the gap between perso

Effects of land-use patterns on in-stream nitrogen in a highly-polluted river basin in Northeast China.

PubMed

Bu, Hongmei; Zhang, Yuan; Meng, Wei; Song, Xianfang

2016-05-15

This study investigated the effects of land-use patterns on nitrogen pollution in the Haicheng River basin in Northeast China during 2010 by conducting statistical and spatial analyses and by analyzing the isotopic composition of nitrate. Correlation and stepwise regressions indicated that land-use types and landscape metrics were correlated well with most river nitrogen variables and significantly predicted them during different sampling seasons. Built-up land use and shape metrics dominated in predicting nitrogen variables over seasons. According to the isotopic compositions of river nitrate in different zones, the nitrogen sources of the river principally originated from synthetic fertilizer, domestic sewage/manure, soil organic matter, and atmospheric deposition. Isotope mixing models indicated that source contributions of river nitrogen significantly varied from forested headwaters to densely populated towns of the river basin. Domestic sewage/manure was a major contributor to river nitrogen with the proportions of 76.4 ± 6.0% and 62.8 ± 2.1% in residence and farmland-residence zones, respectively. This research suggested that regulating built-up land uses and reducing discharges of domestic sewage and industrial wastewater would be effective methods for river nitrogen control. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

[Evaluation of continuous education: from the satisfaction to the impact. With regard to a formative programme in minor surgery in a health area].

PubMed

Martín Fernández, J; Martínez Marcos, M; Ferrándiz Santos, J

2001-04-30

To compare the evaluation of reaction of an activity of continuous education (CE) in minor surgery (MS), with the impact in the realization of MS in a health area. Observational cross-sectional study. Setting. 27 centers in a health area that offer MS between their services. The valuation was studied in a scale from 1 to 10, of 9 theoretical-practical activities of CE in MS and the consideration of its utility. The number of activities of MS (NMS) carried out in all the units, was picked up during one year, and a model of lineal regression was built. The independent variable was the NMS, and the explanatory ones the assistance pressure (AP), the postgraduate formation (PF), the staff of the unit, the equipment (E), and the carried out CE. The valuation of the CE had a median of 8 (with interquartile range 1), 85.1% of the people who realized CE in MS said that this would be of utility. However in the explanatory regression model the PF was the only significant variable (beta = 6.7; 95% CI, 0.12-12.22). Neither the CE, nor the AP, nor the E, explained the variability among the NMS. The CE in MS with conventional methodology has a very positive reaction evaluation, but its impact in the later realization of MS is not significant.

Identifying the optimal segmentors for mass classification in mammograms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yu; Tomuro, Noriko; Furst, Jacob; Raicu, Daniela S.

2015-03-01

In this paper, we present the results of our investigation on identifying the optimal segmentor(s) from an ensemble of weak segmentors, used in a Computer-Aided Diagnosis (CADx) system which classifies suspicious masses in mammograms as benign or malignant. This is an extension of our previous work, where we used various parameter settings of image enhancement techniques to each suspicious mass (region of interest (ROI)) to obtain several enhanced images, then applied segmentation to each image to obtain several contours of a given mass. Each segmentation in this ensemble is essentially a "weak segmentor" because no single segmentation can produce the optimal result for all images. Then after shape features are computed from the segmented contours, the final classification model was built using logistic regression. The work in this paper focuses on identifying the optimal segmentor(s) from an ensemble mix of weak segmentors. For our purpose, optimal segmentors are those in the ensemble mix which contribute the most to the overall classification rather than the ones that produced high precision segmentation. To measure the segmentors' contribution, we examined weights on the features in the derived logistic regression model and computed the average feature weight for each segmentor. The result showed that, while in general the segmentors with higher segmentation success rates had higher feature weights, some segmentors with lower segmentation rates had high classification feature weights as well.

Estimating EQ-5D values from the Neck Disability Index and numeric rating scales for neck and arm pain.

PubMed

Carreon, Leah Y; Bratcher, Kelly R; Das, Nandita; Nienhuis, Jacob B; Glassman, Steven D

2014-09-01

The Neck Disability Index (NDI) and numeric rating scales (0 to 10) for neck pain and arm pain are widely used cervical spine disease-specific measures. Recent studies have shown that there is a strong relationship between the SF-6D and the NDI such that using a simple linear regression allows for the estimation of an SF-6D value from the NDI alone. Due to ease of administration and scoring, the EQ-5D is increasingly being used as a measure of utility in the clinical setting. The purpose of this study is to determine if the EQ-5D values can be estimated from commonly available cervical spine disease-specific health-related quality of life measures, much like the SF-6D. The EQ-5D, NDI, neck pain score, and arm pain score were prospectively collected in 3732 patients who presented to the authors' clinic with degenerative cervical spine disorders. Correlation coefficients for paired observations from multiple time points between the NDI, neck pain and arm pain scores, and EQ-5D were determined. Regression models were built to estimate the EQ-5D values from the NDI, neck pain, and arm pain scores. The mean age of the 3732 patients was 53.3 ± 12.2 years, and 43% were male. Correlations between the EQ-5D and the NDI, neck pain score, and arm pain score were statistically significant (p < 0.0001), with correlation coefficients of -0.77, -0.62, and -0.50, respectively. The regression equation 0.98947 + (-0.00705 × NDI) + (-0.00875 × arm pain score) + (-0.00877 × neck pain score) to predict EQ-5D had an R-square of 0.62 and a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.146. The model using NDI alone had an R-square of 0.59 and a RMSE of 0.150. The model using the individual NDI items had an R-square of 0.46 and an RMSE of 0.172. The correlation coefficient between the observed and estimated EQ-5D scores was 0.79. There was no statistically significant difference between the actual EQ-5D score (0.603 ± 0.235) and the estimated EQ-5D score (0.603 ± 0.185) using the NDI, neck pain score, and arm pain score regression model. However, rounding off the coefficients to fewer than 5 decimal places produced less accurate results. The regression model estimating the EQ-5D from the NDI, neck pain score, and arm pain score accounted for 60% of the variability of the EQ-5D with a relatively large RMSE. This regression model may not be sufficient to accurately or reliably estimate actual EQ-5D values.

Development of a five-year mortality model in systemic sclerosis patients by different analytical approaches.

PubMed

Beretta, Lorenzo; Santaniello, Alessandro; Cappiello, Francesca; Chawla, Nitesh V; Vonk, Madelon C; Carreira, Patricia E; Allanore, Yannick; Popa-Diaconu, D A; Cossu, Marta; Bertolotti, Francesca; Ferraccioli, Gianfranco; Mazzone, Antonino; Scorza, Raffaella

2010-01-01

Systemic sclerosis (SSc) is a multiorgan disease with high mortality rates. Several clinical features have been associated with poor survival in different populations of SSc patients, but no clear and reproducible prognostic model to assess individual survival prediction in scleroderma patients has ever been developed. We used Cox regression and three data mining-based classifiers (Naïve Bayes Classifier [NBC], Random Forests [RND-F] and logistic regression [Log-Reg]) to develop a robust and reproducible 5-year prognostic model. All the models were built and internally validated by means of 5-fold cross-validation on a population of 558 Italian SSc patients. Their predictive ability and capability of generalisation was then tested on an independent population of 356 patients recruited from 5 external centres and finally compared to the predictions made by two SSc domain experts on the same population. The NBC outperformed the Cox-based classifier and the other data mining algorithms after internal cross-validation (area under receiving operator characteristic curve, AUROC: NBC=0.759; RND-F=0.736; Log-Reg=0.754 and Cox= 0.724). The NBC had also a remarkable and better trade-off between sensitivity and specificity (e.g. Balanced accuracy, BA) than the Cox-based classifier, when tested on an independent population of SSc patients (BA: NBC=0.769, Cox=0.622). The NBC was also superior to domain experts in predicting 5-year survival in this population (AUROC=0.829 vs. AUROC=0.788 and BA=0.769 vs. BA=0.67). We provide a model to make consistent 5-year prognostic predictions in SSc patients. Its internal validity, as well as capability of generalisation and reduced uncertainty compared to human experts support its use at bedside. Available at: http://www.nd.edu/~nchawla/survival.xls.

Middle Rio Grande Cooperative Water Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tidwell, Vince; Passell, Howard

2005-11-01

This is computer simulation model built in a commercial modeling product Called Studio Expert, developed by Powersim, Inc. The simulation model is built in a system dynamics environment, allowing the simulation of the interaction among multiple systems that are all changing over time. The model focuses on hydrology, ecology, demography, and economy of the Middle Rio Grande, with Water as the unifying feature.

Variable selection based near infrared spectroscopy quantitative and qualitative analysis on wheat wet gluten

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lü, Chengxu; Jiang, Xunpeng; Zhou, Xingfan; Zhang, Yinqiao; Zhang, Naiqian; Wei, Chongfeng; Mao, Wenhua

2017-10-01

Wet gluten is a useful quality indicator for wheat, and short wave near infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) is a high performance technique with the advantage of economic rapid and nondestructive test. To study the feasibility of short wave NIRS analyzing wet gluten directly from wheat seed, 54 representative wheat seed samples were collected and scanned by spectrometer. 8 spectral pretreatment method and genetic algorithm (GA) variable selection method were used to optimize analysis. Both quantitative and qualitative model of wet gluten were built by partial least squares regression and discriminate analysis. For quantitative analysis, normalization is the optimized pretreatment method, 17 wet gluten sensitive variables are selected by GA, and GA model performs a better result than that of all variable model, with R2V=0.88, and RMSEV=1.47. For qualitative analysis, automatic weighted least squares baseline is the optimized pretreatment method, all variable models perform better results than those of GA models. The correct classification rates of 3 class of <24%, 24-30%, >30% wet gluten content are 95.45, 84.52, and 90.00%, respectively. The short wave NIRS technique shows potential for both quantitative and qualitative analysis of wet gluten for wheat seed.

Determination of quantitative retention-activity relationships between pharmacokinetic parameters and biological effectiveness fingerprints of Salvia miltiorrhiza constituents using biopartitioning and microemulsion high-performance liquid chromatography.

PubMed

Gao, Haoshi; Huang, Hongzhang; Zheng, Aini; Yu, Nuojun; Li, Ning

2017-11-01

In this study, we analyzed danshen (Salvia miltiorrhiza) constituents using biopartitioning and microemulsion high-performance liquid chromatography (MELC). The quantitative retention-activity relationships (QRARs) of the constituents were established to model their pharmacokinetic (PK) parameters and chromatographic retention data, and generate their biological effectiveness fingerprints. A high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) method was established to determine the abundance of the extracted danshen constituents, such as sodium danshensu, rosmarinic acid, salvianolic acid B, protocatechuic aldehyde, cryptotanshinone, and tanshinone IIA. And another HPLC protocol was established to determine the abundance of those constituents in rat plasma samples. An experimental model was built in Sprague Dawley (SD) rats, and calculated the corresponding PK parameterst with 3P97 software package. Thirty-five model drugs were selected to test the PK parameter prediction capacities of the various MELC systems and to optimize the chromatographic protocols. QRARs and generated PK fingerprints were established. The test included water/oil-soluble danshen constituents and the prediction capacity of the regression model was validated. The results showed that the model had good predictability. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Study on the medical meteorological forecast of the number of hypertension inpatient based on SVR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhai, Guangyu; Chai, Guorong; Zhang, Haifeng

2017-06-01

The purpose of this study is to build a hypertension prediction model by discussing the meteorological factors for hypertension incidence. The research method is selecting the standard data of relative humidity, air temperature, visibility, wind speed and air pressure of Lanzhou from 2010 to 2012(calculating the maximum, minimum and average value with 5 days as a unit ) as the input variables of Support Vector Regression(SVR) and the standard data of hypertension incidence of the same period as the output dependent variables to obtain the optimal prediction parameters by cross validation algorithm, then by SVR algorithm learning and training, a SVR forecast model for hypertension incidence is built. The result shows that the hypertension prediction model is composed of 15 input independent variables, the training accuracy is 0.005, the final error is 0.0026389. The forecast accuracy based on SVR model is 97.1429%, which is higher than statistical forecast equation and neural network prediction method. It is concluded that SVR model provides a new method for hypertension prediction with its simple calculation, small error as well as higher historical sample fitting and Independent sample forecast capability.

Developing a Risk-scoring Model for Ankylosing Spondylitis Based on a Combination of HLA-B27, Single-nucleotide Polymorphism, and Copy Number Variant Markers.

PubMed

Jung, Seung-Hyun; Cho, Sung-Min; Yim, Seon-Hee; Kim, So-Hee; Park, Hyeon-Chun; Cho, Mi-La; Shim, Seung-Cheol; Kim, Tae-Hwan; Park, Sung-Hwan; Chung, Yeun-Jun

2016-12-01

To develop a genotype-based ankylosing spondylitis (AS) risk prediction model that is more sensitive and specific than HLA-B27 typing. To develop the AS genetic risk scoring (AS-GRS) model, 648 individuals (285 cases and 363 controls) were examined for 5 copy number variants (CNV), 7 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP), and an HLA-B27 marker by TaqMan assays. The AS-GRS model was developed using logistic regression and validated with a larger independent set (576 cases and 680 controls). Through logistic regression, we built the AS-GRS model consisting of 5 genetic components: HLA-B27, 3 CNV (1q32.2, 13q13.1, and 16p13.3), and 1 SNP (rs10865331). All significant associations of genetic factors in the model were replicated in the independent validation set. The discriminative ability of the AS-GRS model measured by the area under the curve was excellent: 0.976 (95% CI 0.96-0.99) in the model construction set and 0.951 (95% CI 0.94-0.96) in the validation set. The AS-GRS model showed higher specificity and accuracy than the HLA-B27-only model when the sensitivity was set to over 94%. When we categorized the individuals into quartiles based on the AS-GRS scores, OR of the 4 groups (low, intermediate-1, intermediate-2, and high risk) showed an increasing trend with the AS-GRS scores (r 2 = 0.950) and the highest risk group showed a 494× higher risk of AS than the lowest risk group (95% CI 237.3-1029.1). Our AS-GRS could be used to identify individuals at high risk for AS before major symptoms appear, which may improve the prognosis for them through early treatment.

[Assessment of land use environmental impacts in urban built-up area: a case study in main built-up area of Nanchang City].

PubMed

Chen, Wen-Bo; Liu, Shi-Yu; Yu, Dun; Zou, Qiu-Ming

2009-07-01

Based on the relevant studies of land use environmental impacts and the characteristics of urban land use, a conceptual model on the assessment of land use environmental impacts in urban built-up area was established. This model grouped the land use environmental impacts in built-up area into four basic processes, i. e., detailization, abstractization, matching, and evaluation. A case study was conducted in the main built-up area of Nanchang City, with noise, smell, dust, and hazard as the impact factors. In the test area, noise had a widespread impact, its impacting area accounting for 59% of the total, smell and dust impacts centralized in the east and south parts, while hazard impact was centralized in the southeast part, an industrial area. This assessment model of four basic processes was practical, and could provide basis for the decision-making of urban land use management and planning.

Use of Aerial high resolution visible imagery to produce large river bathymetry: a multi temporal and spatial study over the by-passed Upper Rhine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Béal, D.; Piégay, H.; Arnaud, F.; Rollet, A.; Schmitt, L.

2011-12-01

Aerial high resolution visible imagery allows producing large river bathymetry assuming that water depth is related to water colour (Beer-Bouguer-Lambert law). In this paper we aim at monitoring Rhine River geometry changes for a diachronic study as well as sediment transport after an artificial injection (25.000 m3 restoration operation). For that a consequent data base of ground measurements of river depth is used, built on 3 different sources: (i) differential GPS acquisitions, (ii) sounder data and (iii) lateral profiles realized by experts. Water depth is estimated using a multi linear regression over neo channels built on a principal component analysis over red, green and blue bands and previously cited depth data. The study site is a 12 km long reach of the by-passed section of the Rhine River that draws French and German border. This section has been heavily impacted by engineering works during the last two centuries: channelization since 1842 for navigation purposes and the construction of a 45 km long lateral canal and 4 consecutive hydroelectric power plants of since 1932. Several bathymetric models are produced based on 3 different spatial resolutions (6, 13 and 20 cm) and 5 acquisitions (January, March, April, August and October) since 2008. Objectives are to find the optimal spatial resolution and to characterize seasonal effects. Best performances according to the 13 cm resolution show a 18 cm accuracy when suspended matters impacted less water transparency. Discussions are oriented to the monitoring of the artificial reload after 2 flood events during winter 2010-2011. Bathymetric models produced are also useful to build 2D hydraulic model's mesh.

Spatial heterogeneity of the relationships between environmental characteristics and active commuting: towards a locally varying social ecological model.

PubMed

Feuillet, Thierry; Charreire, Hélène; Menai, Mehdi; Salze, Paul; Simon, Chantal; Dugas, Julien; Hercberg, Serge; Andreeva, Valentina A; Enaux, Christophe; Weber, Christiane; Oppert, Jean-Michel

2015-03-25

According to the social ecological model of health-related behaviors, it is now well accepted that environmental factors influence habitual physical activity. Most previous studies on physical activity determinants have assumed spatial homogeneity across the study area, i.e. that the association between the environment and physical activity is the same whatever the location. The main novelty of our study was to explore geographical variation in the relationships between active commuting (walking and cycling to/from work) and residential environmental characteristics. 4,164 adults from the ongoing Nutrinet-Santé web-cohort, residing in and around Paris, France, were studied using a geographically weighted Poisson regression (GWPR) model. Objective environmental variables, including both the built and the socio-economic characteristics around the place of residence of individuals, were assessed by GIS-based measures. Perceived environmental factors (index including safety, aesthetics, and pollution) were reported by questionnaires. Our results show that the influence of the overall neighborhood environment appeared to be more pronounced in the suburban southern part of the study area (Val-de-Marne) compared to Paris inner city, whereas more complex patterns were found elsewhere. Active commuting was positively associated with the built environment only in the southern and northeastern parts of the study area, whereas positive associations with the socio-economic environment were found only in some specific locations in the southern and northern parts of the study area. Similar local variations were observed for the perceived environmental variables. These results suggest that: (i) when applied to active commuting, the social ecological conceptual framework should be locally nuanced, and (ii) local rather than global targeting of public health policies might be more efficient in promoting active commuting.

The importance of molecular structures, endpoints' values, and predictivity parameters in QSAR research: QSAR analysis of a series of estrogen receptor binders.

PubMed

Li, Jiazhong; Gramatica, Paola

2010-11-01

Quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) methodology aims to explore the relationship between molecular structures and experimental endpoints, producing a model for the prediction of new data; the predictive performance of the model must be checked by external validation. Clearly, the qualities of chemical structure information and experimental endpoints, as well as the statistical parameters used to verify the external predictivity have a strong influence on QSAR model reliability. Here, we emphasize the importance of these three aspects by analyzing our models on estrogen receptor binders (Endocrine disruptor knowledge base (EDKB) database). Endocrine disrupting chemicals, which mimic or antagonize the endogenous hormones such as estrogens, are a hot topic in environmental and toxicological sciences. QSAR shows great values in predicting the estrogenic activity and exploring the interactions between the estrogen receptor and ligands. We have verified our previously published model for additional external validation on new EDKB chemicals. Having found some errors in the used 3D molecular conformations, we redevelop a new model using the same data set with corrected structures, the same method (ordinary least-square regression, OLS) and DRAGON descriptors. The new model, based on some different descriptors, is more predictive on external prediction sets. Three different formulas to calculate correlation coefficient for the external prediction set (Q2 EXT) were compared, and the results indicated that the new proposal of Consonni et al. had more reasonable results, consistent with the conclusions from regression line, Williams plot and root mean square error (RMSE) values. Finally, the importance of reliable endpoints values has been highlighted by comparing the classification assignments of EDKB with those of another estrogen receptor binders database (METI): we found that 16.1% assignments of the common compounds were opposite (20 among 124 common compounds). In order to verify the real assignments for these inconsistent compounds, we predicted these samples, as a blind external set, by our regression models and compared the results with the two databases. The results indicated that most of the predictions were consistent with METI. Furthermore, we built a kNN classification model using the 104 consistent compounds to predict those inconsistent ones, and most of the predictions were also in agreement with METI database.

Comprehensive model for predicting perceptual image quality of smart mobile devices.

PubMed

Gong, Rui; Xu, Haisong; Luo, M R; Li, Haifeng

2015-01-01

An image quality model for smart mobile devices was proposed based on visual assessments of several image quality attributes. A series of psychophysical experiments were carried out on two kinds of smart mobile devices, i.e., smart phones and tablet computers, in which naturalness, colorfulness, brightness, contrast, sharpness, clearness, and overall image quality were visually evaluated under three lighting environments via categorical judgment method for various application types of test images. On the basis of Pearson correlation coefficients and factor analysis, the overall image quality could first be predicted by its two constituent attributes with multiple linear regression functions for different types of images, respectively, and then the mathematical expressions were built to link the constituent image quality attributes with the physical parameters of smart mobile devices and image appearance factors. The procedure and algorithms were applicable to various smart mobile devices, different lighting conditions, and multiple types of images, and performance was verified by the visual data.

Quality control of the paracetamol drug by chemometrics and imaging spectroscopy in the near infrared region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baptistao, Mariana; Rocha, Werickson Fortunato de Carvalho; Poppi, Ronei Jesus

2011-09-01

In this work, it was used imaging spectroscopy and chemometric tools for the development and analysis of paracetamol and excipients in pharmaceutical formulations. It was also built concentration maps to study the distribution of the drug in the tablets surface. Multivariate models based on PLS regression were developed for paracetamol and excipients concentrations prediction. For the construction of the models it was used 31 samples in the tablet form containing the active principle in a concentration range of 30.0-90.0% (w/w) and errors below to 5% were obtained for validation samples. Finally, the study of the distribution in the drug was performed through the distribution maps of concentration of active principle and excipients. The analysis of maps showed the complementarity between the active principle and excipients in the tablets. The region with a high concentration of a constituent must have, necessarily, absence or low concentration of the other one. Thus, an alternative method for the paracetamol drug quality monitoring is presented.

Development and Preliminary Evaluation of a Prototype of a Learning Electronic Medical Record System

PubMed Central

King, Andrew J.; Cooper, Gregory F.; Hochheiser, Harry; Clermont, Gilles; Visweswaran, Shyam

2015-01-01

Electronic medical records (EMRs) are capturing increasing amounts of data per patient. For clinicians to efficiently and accurately understand a patient’s clinical state, better ways are needed to determine when and how to display EMR data. We built a prototype system that records how physicians view EMR data, which we used to train models that predict which EMR data will be relevant in a given patient. We call this approach a Learning EMR (LEMR). A physician used the prototype to review 59 intensive care unit (ICU) patient cases. We used the data-access patterns from these cases to train logistic regression models that, when evaluated, had AUROC values as high as 0.92 and that averaged 0.73, supporting that the approach is promising. A preliminary usability study identified advantages of the system and a few concerns about implementation. Overall, 3 of 4 ICU physicians were enthusiastic about features of the prototype. PMID:26958296

A GIS based model for active transportation in the built environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Addison, Veronica Marie Medina

Obesity and physical inactivity have been major risk factors associated with morbidity and mortality in the United States. Recently, obesity and physical inactivity have been on the rise. Determining connections between this trend and the environment could lead to a built environment that is conducive to healthy, active people. In my previous research, I have studied the built environment and its connection to health. For my dissertation, I build on this fundamental work by incorporating energy, specifically by studying the built environment and its connection to energy expenditures. This research models the built environment and combines this with human energy expenditure information in order to provide a planning tool that allows an individual to actively address health issues, particularly obesity. This research focuses on the design and development of an internet based model that enables individuals to understand their own energy expenditures in relation to their environment. The model will work to find the energy consumed by an individual in their navigation through campus. This is accomplished by using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to model the campus and using it as the basis for calculating energy expended through active transportation. Using GIS to create the model allows for the incorporation of built environment factors such as elevation and energy expenditures in relation to physical exertion rate. This research will contribute to the long-term solution to the obesity epidemic by creating healthy communities through smart growth and sustainable design. This research provides users with a tool to use in their current environment for their personal and community well being.

[Proposals for health reform and equity in Uruguay: a redefinition of the Welfare State?].

PubMed

Mitjavila, Myriam; Fernandez, José; Moreira, Constanza

2002-01-01

This article reviews and analyzes health sector reform proposals in Uruguay and the possible effects of such reforms in terms of equity, the health sector's institutional structure, and the power relationship between the various actors in the process. The authors contend that a highly structured yet simultaneously fragmented system has conspired against any attempt to introduce major reforms into the system. Thus the only possibility for reform resides neither in the consolidation of the so-called Institutions for Collective Medical Care (IAMCs) nor in the move towards a residual model. Rather, Uruguay is witnessing the system's passive restructuring (i.e., reform by default). In this context and given the system's built-in inequities, the current trend is towards an even more regressive distribution of goods and services. The authors use qualitative and quantitative techniques to show that inequities in expenditure, access, and quality have resulted from long-term developments and adaptive movements of an IAMC system in fiscal stress and the public system's declining quality. Thus, in the absence of changes in state policy that redefine the actors' power or in the absence of system collapse, the country should expect this same regressive trend to deepen.

Rapid determination of crocins in saffron by near-infrared spectroscopy combined with chemometric techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Shuailing; Shao, Qingsong; Lu, Zhonghua; Duan, Chengli; Yi, Haojun; Su, Liyang

2018-02-01

Saffron is an expensive spice. Its primary effective constituents are crocin I and II, and the contents of these compounds directly affect the quality and commercial value of saffron. In this study, near-infrared spectroscopy was combined with chemometric techniques for the determination of crocin I and II in saffron. Partial least squares regression models were built for the quantification of crocin I and II. By comparing different spectral ranges and spectral pretreatment methods (no pretreatment, vector normalization, subtract a straight line, multiplicative scatter correction, minimum-maximum normalization, eliminate the constant offset, first derivative, and second derivative), optimum models were developed. The root mean square error of cross-validation values of the best partial least squares models for crocin I and II were 1.40 and 0.30, respectively. The coefficients of determination for crocin I and II were 93.40 and 96.30, respectively. These results show that near-infrared spectroscopy can be combined with chemometric techniques to determine the contents of crocin I and II in saffron quickly and efficiently.

Identification of pesticide varieties by testing microalgae using Visible/Near Infrared Hyperspectral Imaging technology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shao, Yongni; Jiang, Linjun; Zhou, Hong; Pan, Jian; He, Yong

2016-04-01

In our study, the feasibility of using visible/near infrared hyperspectral imaging technology to detect the changes of the internal components of Chlorella pyrenoidosa so as to determine the varieties of pesticides (such as butachlor, atrazine and glyphosate) at three concentrations (0.6 mg/L, 3 mg/L, 15 mg/L) was investigated. Three models (partial least squares discriminant analysis combined with full wavelengths, FW-PLSDA; partial least squares discriminant analysis combined with competitive adaptive reweighted sampling algorithm, CARS-PLSDA; linear discrimination analysis combined with regression coefficients, RC-LDA) were built by the hyperspectral data of Chlorella pyrenoidosa to find which model can produce the most optimal result. The RC-LDA model, which achieved an average correct classification rate of 97.0% was more superior than FW-PLSDA (72.2%) and CARS-PLSDA (84.0%), and it proved that visible/near infrared hyperspectral imaging could be a rapid and reliable technique to identify pesticide varieties. It also proved that microalgae can be a very promising medium to indicate characteristics of pesticides.

Multiple QSAR models, pharmacophore pattern and molecular docking analysis for anticancer activity of α, β-unsaturated carbonyl-based compounds, oxime and oxime ether analogues

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masand, Vijay H.; El-Sayed, Nahed N. E.; Bambole, Mukesh U.; Quazi, Syed A.

2018-04-01

Multiple discrete quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSARs) models were constructed for the anticancer activity of α, β-unsaturated carbonyl-based compounds, oxime and oxime ether analogues with a variety of substituents like sbnd Br, sbnd OH, -OMe, etc. at different positions. A big pool of descriptors was considered for QSAR model building. Genetic algorithm (GA), available in QSARINS-Chem, was executed to choose optimum number and set of descriptors to create the multi-linear regression equations for a dataset of sixty-nine compounds. The newly developed five parametric models were subjected to exhaustive internal and external validation along with Y-scrambling using QSARINS-Chem, according to the OECD principles for QSAR model validation. The models were built using easily interpretable descriptors and accepted after confirming statistically robustness with high external predictive ability. The five parametric models were found to have R2 = 0.80 to 0.86, R2ex = 0.75 to 0.84, and CCCex = 0.85 to 0.90. The models indicate that frequency of nitrogen and oxygen atoms separated by five bonds from each other and internal electronic environment of the molecule have correlation with the anticancer activity.

Preliminary Survey on TRY Forest Traits and Growth Index Relations - New Challenges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lyubenova, Mariyana; Kattge, Jens; van Bodegom, Peter; Chikalanov, Alexandre; Popova, Silvia; Zlateva, Plamena; Peteva, Simona

2016-04-01

Forest ecosystems provide critical ecosystem goods and services, including food, fodder, water, shelter, nutrient cycling, and cultural and recreational value. Forests also store carbon, provide habitat for a wide range of species and help alleviate land degradation and desertification. Thus they have a potentially significant role to play in climate change adaptation planning through maintaining ecosystem services and providing livelihood options. Therefore the study of forest traits is such an important issue not just for individual countries but for the planet as a whole. We need to know what functional relations between forest traits exactly can express TRY data base and haw it will be significant for the global modeling and IPBES. The study of the biodiversity characteristics at all levels and functional links between them is extremely important for the selection of key indicators for assessing biodiversity and ecosystem services for sustainable natural capital control. By comparing the available information in tree data bases: TRY, ITR (International Tree Ring) and SP-PAM the 42 tree species are selected for the traits analyses. The dependence between location characteristics (latitude, longitude, altitude, annual precipitation, annual temperature and soil type) and forest traits (specific leaf area, leaf weight ratio, wood density and growth index) is studied by by multiply regression analyses (RDA) using the statistical software package Canoco 4.5. The Pearson correlation coefficient (measure of linear correlation), Kendal rank correlation coefficient (non parametric measure of statistical dependence) and Spearman correlation coefficient (monotonic function relationship between two variables) are calculated for each pair of variables (indexes) and species. After analysis of above mentioned correlation coefficients the dimensional linear regression models, multidimensional linear and nonlinear regression models and multidimensional neural networks models are built. The strongest dependence between It and WD was obtained. The research will support the work on: Strategic Plan for Biodiversity 2011-2020, modelling and implementation of ecosystem-based approaches to climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction. Key words: Specific leaf area (SLA), Leaf weight ratio (LWR), Wood density (WD), Growth index (It)

Land use regression modelling of air pollution in high density high rise cities: A case study in Hong Kong.

PubMed

Lee, Martha; Brauer, Michael; Wong, Paulina; Tang, Robert; Tsui, Tsz Him; Choi, Crystal; Cheng, Wei; Lai, Poh-Chin; Tian, Linwei; Thach, Thuan-Quoc; Allen, Ryan; Barratt, Benjamin

2017-08-15

Land use regression (LUR) is a common method of predicting spatial variability of air pollution to estimate exposure. Nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ), nitric oxide (NO), fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ), and black carbon (BC) concentrations were measured during two sampling campaigns (April-May and November-January) in Hong Kong (a prototypical high-density high-rise city). Along with 365 potential geospatial predictor variables, these concentrations were used to build two-dimensional land use regression (LUR) models for the territory. Summary statistics for combined measurements over both campaigns were: a) NO 2 (Mean=106μg/m 3 , SD=38.5, N=95), b) NO (M=147μg/m 3 , SD=88.9, N=40), c) PM 2.5 (M=35μg/m 3 , SD=6.3, N=64), and BC (M=10.6μg/m 3 , SD=5.3, N=76). Final LUR models had the following statistics: a) NO 2 (R 2 =0.46, RMSE=28μg/m 3 ) b) NO (R 2 =0.50, RMSE=62μg/m 3 ), c) PM 2.5 (R 2 =0.59; RMSE=4μg/m 3 ), and d) BC (R 2 =0.50, RMSE=4μg/m 3 ). Traditional LUR predictors such as road length, car park density, and land use types were included in most models. The NO 2 prediction surface values were highest in Kowloon and the northern region of Hong Kong Island (downtown Hong Kong). NO showed a similar pattern in the built-up region. Both PM 2.5 and BC predictions exhibited a northwest-southeast gradient, with higher concentrations in the north (close to mainland China). For BC, the port was also an area of elevated predicted concentrations. The results matched with existing literature on spatial variation in concentrations of air pollutants and in relation to important emission sources in Hong Kong. The success of these models suggests LUR is appropriate in high-density, high-rise cities. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Geospatial Analysis of Atmospheric Haze Effect by Source and Sink Landscape

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, T.; Xu, K.; Yuan, Z.

2017-09-01

Based on geospatial analysis model, this paper analyzes the relationship between the landscape patterns of source and sink in urban areas and atmospheric haze pollution. Firstly, the classification result and aerosol optical thickness (AOD) of Wuhan are divided into a number of square grids with the side length of 6 km, and the category level landscape indices (PLAND, PD, COHESION, LPI, FRAC_MN) and AOD of each grid are calculated. Then the source and sink landscapes of atmospheric haze pollution are selected based on the analysis of the correlation between landscape indices and AOD. Next, to make the following analysis more efficient, the indices selected before should be determined through the correlation coefficient between them. Finally, due to the spatial dependency and spatial heterogeneity of the data used in this paper, spatial autoregressive model and geo-weighted regression model are used to analyze atmospheric haze effect by source and sink landscape from the global and local level. The results show that the source landscape of atmospheric haze pollution is the building, and the sink landscapes are shrub and woodland. PLAND, PD and COHESION are suitable for describing the atmospheric haze effect by source and sink landscape. Comparing these models, the fitting effect of SLM, SEM and GWR is significantly better than that of OLS model. The SLM model is superior to the SEM model in this paper. Although the fitting effect of GWR model is more unsuited than that of SLM, the influence degree of influencing factors on atmospheric haze of different geography can be expressed clearer. Through the analysis results of these models, following conclusions can be summarized: Reducing the proportion of source landscape area and increasing the degree of fragmentation could cut down aerosol optical thickness; And distributing the source and sink landscape evenly and interspersedly could effectively reduce aerosol optical thickness which represents atmospheric haze pollution; For Wuhan City, the method of adjusting the built-up area slightly and planning the non-built-up areas reasonably can be taken to reduce atmospheric haze pollution.

Impact of individual and neighborhood factors on disparities in prostate cancer survival.

PubMed

DeRouen, Mindy C; Schupp, Clayton W; Koo, Jocelyn; Yang, Juan; Hertz, Andrew; Shariff-Marco, Salma; Cockburn, Myles; Nelson, David O; Ingles, Sue A; John, Esther M; Gomez, Scarlett L

2018-04-01

We addressed the hypothesis that individual-level factors act jointly with social and built environment factors to influence overall survival for men with prostate cancer and contribute to racial/ethnic and socioeconomic (SES) survival disparities. We analyzed multi-level data, combining (1) individual-level data from the California Collaborative Prostate Cancer Study, a population-based study of non-Hispanic White (NHW), Hispanic, and African American prostate cancer cases (N = 1800) diagnosed from 1997 to 2003, with (2) data on neighborhood SES (nSES) and social and built environment factors from the California Neighborhoods Data System, and (3) data on tumor characteristics, treatment and follow-up through 2009 from the California Cancer Registry. Multivariable, stage-stratified Cox proportional hazards regression models with cluster adjustments were used to assess education and nSES main and joint effects on overall survival, before and after adjustment for social and built environment factors. African American men had worse survival than NHW men, which was attenuated by nSES. Increased risk of death was associated with residence in lower SES neighborhoods (quintile 1 (lowest nSES) vs. 5: HR = 1.56, 95% CI: 1.11-2.19) and lower education (

A disadvantaged advantage in walkability: findings from socioeconomic and geographical analysis of national built environment data in the United States.

PubMed

King, Katherine E; Clarke, Philippa J

2015-01-01

Urban form-the structure of the built environment-can influence physical activity, yet little is known about how walkable design differs according to neighborhood sociodemographic composition. We studied how walkable urban form varies by neighborhood sociodemographic composition, region, and urbanicity across the United States. Using linear regression models and 2000-2001 US Census data, we investigated the relationship between 5 neighborhood census characteristics (income, education, racial/ethnic composition, age distribution, and sex) and 5 walkability indicators in almost 65,000 census tracts in 48 states and the District of Columbia. Data on the built environment were obtained from the RAND Corporation's (Santa Monica, California) Center for Population Health and Health Disparities (median block length, street segment, and node density) and the US Geological Survey's National Land Cover Database (proportion open space and proportion highly developed). Disadvantaged neighborhoods and those with more educated residents were more walkable (i.e., shorter block length, greater street node density, more developed land use, and higher density of street segments). However, tracts with a higher proportion of children and older adults were less walkable (fewer street nodes and lower density of street segments), after adjustment for region and level of urbanicity. Research and policy on the walkability-health link should give nuanced attention to the gap between persons living in walkable areas and those for whom walkability has the most to offer. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health 2014. This work is written by (a) US Government employee(s) and is in the public domain in the US.

Examining Contextual Influences on Fall-Related Injuries Among Older Adults for Population Health Management.

PubMed

Hoffman, Geoffrey J; Rodriguez, Hector P

2015-12-01

The objectives were to assess the associations between fall-related injuries (FRIs) treated in the emergency department (ED) among older adults in California and contextual county-level physical, social, and economic characteristics, and to assess how county-level economic conditions are associated with FRIs when controlling for other county-level factors. Data from 2008 California ED discharge, Medicare Impact File, and County Health Rankings were used. Random effects logistic regression models estimated contextual associations between county-level factors representing economic conditions, the built environment, community safety, access to care, and obesity with patient-level FRI treatment among 1,712,409 older adults, controlling for patient-level and hospital-level characteristics. Patient-level predictors of FRI treatment were consistent with previous studies not accounting for contextual associations. Larger and rural hospitals had higher odds of FRI treatment, while teaching and safety net hospitals had lower odds. Better county economic conditions were associated with greater odds (ß=0.73, P=0.001) and higher county-level obesity were associated with lower odds (ß=-0.37, P=0.004), but safer built environments (ß=-0.31, P=0.38) were not associated with FRI treatment. The magnitude of association between county-level economic conditions and FRI treatment attenuated with the inclusion of county-level obesity rates. FRI treatment was most strongly and consistently related to more favorable county economic conditions, suggesting differences in treatment or preferences for treatment for FRIs among older individuals in communities of varying resource levels. Using population health data on FRIs, policy makers may be able to remove barriers unique to local contexts when implementing falls prevention educational programs and built environment modifications.

Examining Contextual Influences on Fall-Related Injuries Among Older Adults for Population Health Management

PubMed Central

Rodriguez, Hector P.

2015-01-01

Abstract The objectives were to assess the associations between fall-related injuries (FRIs) treated in the emergency department (ED) among older adults in California and contextual county-level physical, social, and economic characteristics, and to assess how county-level economic conditions are associated with FRIs when controlling for other county-level factors. Data from 2008 California ED discharge, Medicare Impact File, and County Health Rankings were used. Random effects logistic regression models estimated contextual associations between county-level factors representing economic conditions, the built environment, community safety, access to care, and obesity with patient-level FRI treatment among 1,712,409 older adults, controlling for patient-level and hospital-level characteristics. Patient-level predictors of FRI treatment were consistent with previous studies not accounting for contextual associations. Larger and rural hospitals had higher odds of FRI treatment, while teaching and safety net hospitals had lower odds. Better county economic conditions were associated with greater odds (ß=0.73, P=0.001) and higher county-level obesity were associated with lower odds (ß=−0.37, P=0.004), but safer built environments (ß=−0.31, P=0.38) were not associated with FRI treatment. The magnitude of association between county-level economic conditions and FRI treatment attenuated with the inclusion of county-level obesity rates. FRI treatment was most strongly and consistently related to more favorable county economic conditions, suggesting differences in treatment or preferences for treatment for FRIs among older individuals in communities of varying resource levels. Using population health data on FRIs, policy makers may be able to remove barriers unique to local contexts when implementing falls prevention educational programs and built environment modifications. (Population Health Management 2015;18:437–448) PMID:25919228

Advanced inflow forecasting for a hydropower plant in an Alpine hydropower regulated catchment - coupling of operational and hydrological forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tilg, Anna-Maria; Schöber, Johannes; Huttenlau, Matthias; Messner, Jakob; Achleitner, Stefan

2017-04-01

Hydropower is a renewable energy source which can help to stabilize fluctuations in the volatile energy market. Especially pumped-storage infrastructures in the European Alps play an important role within the European energy grid system. Today, the runoff of rivers in the Alps is often influenced by cascades of hydropower infrastructures where the operational procedures are triggered by energy market demands, water deliveries and flood control aspects rather than by hydro-meteorological variables. An example for such a highly hydropower regulated river is the catchment of the river Inn in the Eastern European Alps, originating in the Engadin (Switzerland). A new hydropower plant is going to be built as transboundary project at the boarder of Switzerland and Austria using the water of the Inn River. For the operation, a runoff forecast to the plant is required. The challenge in this case is that a high proportion of runoff is turbine water from an upstream situated hydropower cascade. The newly developed physically based hydrological forecasting system is mainly capable to cover natural hydrological runoff processes caused by storms and snow melt but can model only a small degree of human impact. These discontinuous parts of the runoff downstream of the pumped storage are described by means of an additional statistical model which has been developed. The main goal of the statistical model is to forecast the turbine water up to five days in advance. The lead time of the data driven model exceeds the lead time of the used energy production forecast. Additionally, the amount of turbine water is linked to the need of electricity production and the electricity price. It has been shown that especially the parameters day-ahead prognosis of the energy production and turbine inflow of the previous week are good predictors and are therefore used as input parameters for the model. As the data is restricted due to technical conditions, so-called Tobit models have been used to develop a linear regression for the runoff forecast. Although the day-ahead prognosis cannot always be kept, the regression model delivers, especially during office hours, very reasonable results. In the remaining hours the error between measurement and the forecast increases. Overall, the inflow forecast can be substantially improved by the implementation of the developed regression in the hydrological modelling system.

Modelling high data rate communication network access protocol

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Khanna, S.; Foudriat, E. C.; Paterra, Frank; Maly, Kurt J.; Overstreet, C. Michael

1990-01-01

Modeling of high data rate communication systems is different from the low data rate systems. Three simulations were built during the development phase of Carrier Sensed Multiple Access/Ring Network (CSMA/RN) modeling. The first was a model using SIMCRIPT based upon the determination and processing of each event at each node. The second simulation was developed in C based upon isolating the distinct object that can be identified as the ring, the message, the node, and the set of critical events. The third model further identified the basic network functionality by creating a single object, the node which includes the set of critical events which occur at the node. The ring structure is implicit in the node structure. This model was also built in C. Each model is discussed and their features compared. It should be stated that the language used was mainly selected by the model developer because of his past familiarity. Further the models were not built with the intent to compare either structure or language but because the complexity of the problem and initial results contained obvious errors, so alternative models were built to isolate, determine, and correct programming and modeling errors. The CSMA/RN protocol is discussed in sufficient detail to understand modeling complexities. Each model is described along with its features and problems. The models are compared and concluding observations and remarks are presented.

PRESS-based EFOR algorithm for the dynamic parametrical modeling of nonlinear MDOF systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Haopeng; Zhu, Yunpeng; Luo, Zhong; Han, Qingkai

2017-09-01

In response to the identification problem concerning multi-degree of freedom (MDOF) nonlinear systems, this study presents the extended forward orthogonal regression (EFOR) based on predicted residual sums of squares (PRESS) to construct a nonlinear dynamic parametrical model. The proposed parametrical model is based on the non-linear autoregressive with exogenous inputs (NARX) model and aims to explicitly reveal the physical design parameters of the system. The PRESS-based EFOR algorithm is proposed to identify such a model for MDOF systems. By using the algorithm, we built a common-structured model based on the fundamental concept of evaluating its generalization capability through cross-validation. The resulting model aims to prevent over-fitting with poor generalization performance caused by the average error reduction ratio (AERR)-based EFOR algorithm. Then, a functional relationship is established between the coefficients of the terms and the design parameters of the unified model. Moreover, a 5-DOF nonlinear system is taken as a case to illustrate the modeling of the proposed algorithm. Finally, a dynamic parametrical model of a cantilever beam is constructed from experimental data. Results indicate that the dynamic parametrical model of nonlinear systems, which depends on the PRESS-based EFOR, can accurately predict the output response, thus providing a theoretical basis for the optimal design of modeling methods for MDOF nonlinear systems.

Associations between sociodemographic characteristics and perceptions of the built environment with the frequency, type, and duration of physical activity among trail users.

PubMed

Maslow, Andréa L; Reed, Julian A; Price, Anna E; Hooker, Steven P

2012-01-01

Rail trails are elements of the built environment that support the Task Force on Community Preventive Services' recommendation to create, or enhance access to, places for physical activity (PA). The purpose of this study was to examine the associations between sociodemographic characteristics and perceptions of the built environment with the frequency, type, and duration of PA among users of an urban, paved rail trail segment. Interviewers conducted intercept surveys with 431 rail trail users and analyzed data by using logistic regression to estimate odds ratios between sociodemographic characteristics and perceptions of the built environment on the frequency, type, and duration of PA performed on the trail. Adults who used the trail in the cool months, traveled to the trail by a motorized vehicle, used the trail with others, and had some graduate school education visited the trail less often. Younger adults, men, whites, and those with some graduate school education were more likely to engage in vigorous activities on the trail. Adults who traveled to the trail by a motorized vehicle spent more time engaged in PA on the trail. Our results suggest that the most frequent users of a rail trail for PA are those who use the trail alone and travel to the trail by bicycle or on foot. Trails are an aspect of the built environment that supports active lifestyles, and future studies should evaluate different types of trails among more diverse populations and locations.

Examining spring and autumn phenology in a temperate deciduous urban woodlot

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Rong

This dissertation is an intensive phenological study in a temperate deciduous urban woodlot over six consecutive years (2007-2012). It explores three important topics related to spring and autumn phenology, as well as ground and remote sensing phenology. First, it examines key climatic factors influencing spring and autumn phenology by conducting phenological observations four days a week and recording daily microclimate measurements. Second, it investigates the differences in phenological responses between an urban woodlot and a rural forest by employing comparative basswood phenological data. Finally, it bridges ground visual phenology and remote sensing derived phenological changes by using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer (MODIS). The primary outcomes are as follows: 1) empirical spatial regression models for two dominant tree species - basswood and white ash - have been built and analyzed to detect spatial patterns and possible causes of phenological change; the results show that local urban settings significantly affect phenology; 2) empirical phenological progression models have been built for each species and the community as a whole to examine how phenology develops in spring and autumn; the results indicate that the critical factor influencing spring phenology is AGDD (accumulated growing degree-days) and for autumn phenology, ACDD (accumulated chilling degree-days) and day length; and 3) satellite derived phenological changes have been compared with ground visual community phenology in both spring and autumn seasons, and the results confirm that both NDVI and EVI depict vegetation dynamics well and therefore have corresponding phenological meanings.

Influence of social and built environment features on children walking to school: an observational study.

PubMed

Rothman, Linda; To, Teresa; Buliung, Ron; Macarthur, Colin; Howard, Andrew

2014-03-01

To estimate the proportion of children living within walking distance who walk to school in Toronto, Canada and identify built and social environmental correlates of walking. Observational counts of school travel mode were done in 2011, at 118 elementary schools. Built environment data were obtained from municipal sources and school field audits and mapped onto school attendance boundaries. The influence of social and built environmental features on walking counts was analyzed using negative binomial regression. The mean proportion observed walking was 67% (standard deviation=14.0). Child population (incidence rate ratio (IRR) 1.36), pedestrian crossover (IRR 1.32), traffic light (IRR 1.19), and intersection densities (IRR 1.03), school crossing guard (IRR 1.14) and primary language other than English (IRR 1.20) were positively correlated with walking. Crossing guard presence reduced the influence of other features on walking. This is the first large observational study examining school travel mode and the environment. Walking proportions were higher than those previously reported in Toronto, with large variability. Associations between population density and several roadway design features and walking were confirmed. School crossing guards may override the influence of roadway features on walking. Results have important implications for policies regarding walking promotion. Crown Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Quantitative Analysis of Intra Urban Growth Modeling using socio economic agents by combining cellular automata model with agent based model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, V. K.; Jha, A. K.; Gupta, K.; Srivastav, S. K.

2017-12-01

Recent studies indicate that there is a significant improvement in the urban land use dynamics through modeling at finer spatial resolutions. Geo-computational models such as cellular automata and agent based model have given evident proof regarding the quantification of the urban growth pattern with urban boundary. In recent studies, socio- economic factors such as demography, education rate, household density, parcel price of the current year, distance to road, school, hospital, commercial centers and police station are considered to the major factors influencing the Land Use Land Cover (LULC) pattern of the city. These factors have unidirectional approach to land use pattern which makes it difficult to analyze the spatial aspects of model results both quantitatively and qualitatively. In this study, cellular automata model is combined with generic model known as Agent Based Model to evaluate the impact of socio economic factors on land use pattern. For this purpose, Dehradun an Indian city is selected as a case study. Socio economic factors were collected from field survey, Census of India, Directorate of economic census, Uttarakhand, India. A 3X3 simulating window is used to consider the impact on LULC. Cellular automata model results are examined for the identification of hot spot areas within the urban area and agent based model will be using logistic based regression approach where it will identify the correlation between each factor on LULC and classify the available area into low density, medium density, high density residential or commercial area. In the modeling phase, transition rule, neighborhood effect, cell change factors are used to improve the representation of built-up classes. Significant improvement is observed in the built-up classes from 84 % to 89 %. However after incorporating agent based model with cellular automata model the accuracy improved from 89 % to 94 % in 3 classes of urban i.e. low density, medium density and commercial classes. Sensitivity study of the model indicated that southern and south-west part of the city have shown improvement and small patches of growth are also observed in the north western part of the city.The study highlights the growing importance of socio economic factors and geo-computational modeling approach on changing LULC of newly growing cities of modern India.

Statistical sex determination from craniometrics: Comparison of linear discriminant analysis, logistic regression, and support vector machines.

PubMed

Santos, Frédéric; Guyomarc'h, Pierre; Bruzek, Jaroslav

2014-12-01

Accuracy of identification tools in forensic anthropology primarily rely upon the variations inherent in the data upon which they are built. Sex determination methods based on craniometrics are widely used and known to be specific to several factors (e.g. sample distribution, population, age, secular trends, measurement technique, etc.). The goal of this study is to discuss the potential variations linked to the statistical treatment of the data. Traditional craniometrics of four samples extracted from documented osteological collections (from Portugal, France, the U.S.A., and Thailand) were used to test three different classification methods: linear discriminant analysis (LDA), logistic regression (LR), and support vector machines (SVM). The Portuguese sample was set as a training model on which the other samples were applied in order to assess the validity and reliability of the different models. The tests were performed using different parameters: some included the selection of the best predictors; some included a strict decision threshold (sex assessed only if the related posterior probability was high, including the notion of indeterminate result); and some used an unbalanced sex-ratio. Results indicated that LR tends to perform slightly better than the other techniques and offers a better selection of predictors. Also, the use of a decision threshold (i.e. p>0.95) is essential to ensure an acceptable reliability of sex determination methods based on craniometrics. Although the Portuguese, French, and American samples share a similar sexual dimorphism, application of Western models on the Thai sample (that displayed a lower degree of dimorphism) was unsuccessful. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Suicide Risk Among Holocaust Survivors Following Psychiatric Hospitalizations: A Historic Cohort Study.

PubMed

Lurie, Ido; Gur, Adi; Haklai, Ziona; Goldberger, Nehama

2018-01-01

The association between Holocaust experience, suicide, and psychiatric hospitalization has not been unequivocally established. The aim of this study was to determine the risk of suicide among 3 Jewish groups with past or current psychiatric hospitalizations: Holocaust survivors (HS), survivors of pre-Holocaust persecution (early HS), and a comparison group of similar European background who did not experience Holocaust persecution. In a retrospective cohort study based on the Israel National Psychiatric Case Register (NPCR) and the database of causes of death, all suicides in the years 1981-2009 were found for HS (n = 16,406), early HS (n = 1,212) and a comparison group (n = 4,286). Age adjusted suicide rates were calculated for the 3 groups and a logistic regression model was built to assess the suicide risk, controlling for demographic and clinical variables. The number of completed suicides in the study period was: HS-233 (1.4%), early HS-34 (2.8%), and the comparison group-64 (1.5%). Age adjusted rates were 106.7 (95% CI 93.0-120.5) per 100,000 person-years for HS, 231.0 (95% CI 157.0-327.9) for early HS and 150.7 (95% CI 113.2-196.6) for comparisons. The regression models showed significantly higher risk for the early HS versus comparisons (multivariate model adjusted OR = 1.68, 95% CI 1.09-2.60), but not for the HS versus comparisons. These results may indicate higher resilience among the survivors of maximal adversity compared to others who experienced lesser persecution.

Learning to Monitor Machine Health with Convolutional Bi-Directional LSTM Networks

PubMed Central

Zhao, Rui; Yan, Ruqiang; Wang, Jinjiang; Mao, Kezhi

2017-01-01

In modern manufacturing systems and industries, more and more research efforts have been made in developing effective machine health monitoring systems. Among various machine health monitoring approaches, data-driven methods are gaining in popularity due to the development of advanced sensing and data analytic techniques. However, considering the noise, varying length and irregular sampling behind sensory data, this kind of sequential data cannot be fed into classification and regression models directly. Therefore, previous work focuses on feature extraction/fusion methods requiring expensive human labor and high quality expert knowledge. With the development of deep learning methods in the last few years, which redefine representation learning from raw data, a deep neural network structure named Convolutional Bi-directional Long Short-Term Memory networks (CBLSTM) has been designed here to address raw sensory data. CBLSTM firstly uses CNN to extract local features that are robust and informative from the sequential input. Then, bi-directional LSTM is introduced to encode temporal information. Long Short-Term Memory networks (LSTMs) are able to capture long-term dependencies and model sequential data, and the bi-directional structure enables the capture of past and future contexts. Stacked, fully-connected layers and the linear regression layer are built on top of bi-directional LSTMs to predict the target value. Here, a real-life tool wear test is introduced, and our proposed CBLSTM is able to predict the actual tool wear based on raw sensory data. The experimental results have shown that our model is able to outperform several state-of-the-art baseline methods. PMID:28146106

Learning to Monitor Machine Health with Convolutional Bi-Directional LSTM Networks.

PubMed

Zhao, Rui; Yan, Ruqiang; Wang, Jinjiang; Mao, Kezhi

2017-01-30

In modern manufacturing systems and industries, more and more research efforts have been made in developing effective machine health monitoring systems. Among various machine health monitoring approaches, data-driven methods are gaining in popularity due to the development of advanced sensing and data analytic techniques. However, considering the noise, varying length and irregular sampling behind sensory data, this kind of sequential data cannot be fed into classification and regression models directly. Therefore, previous work focuses on feature extraction/fusion methods requiring expensive human labor and high quality expert knowledge. With the development of deep learning methods in the last few years, which redefine representation learning from raw data, a deep neural network structure named Convolutional Bi-directional Long Short-Term Memory networks (CBLSTM) has been designed here to address raw sensory data. CBLSTM firstly uses CNN to extract local features that are robust and informative from the sequential input. Then, bi-directional LSTM is introduced to encode temporal information. Long Short-Term Memory networks(LSTMs) are able to capture long-term dependencies and model sequential data, and the bi-directional structure enables the capture of past and future contexts. Stacked, fully-connected layers and the linear regression layer are built on top of bi-directional LSTMs to predict the target value. Here, a real-life tool wear test is introduced, and our proposed CBLSTM is able to predict the actual tool wear based on raw sensory data. The experimental results have shown that our model is able to outperform several state-of-the-art baseline methods.

Substitute CT generation from a single ultra short time echo MRI sequence: preliminary study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghose, Soumya; Dowling, Jason A.; Rai, Robba; Liney, Gary P.

2017-04-01

In MR guided radiation therapy planning both MR and CT images for a patient are acquired and co-registered to obtain a tissue specific HU map. Generation of the HU map directly from the MRI would eliminate the CT acquisition and may improve radiation therapy planning. In this preliminary study of substitute CT (sCT) generation, two porcine leg phantoms were scanned using a 3D ultrashort echo time (PETRA) sequence and co-registered to corresponding CT images to build tissue specific regression models. The model was created from one co-registered CT-PETRA pair to generate the sCT for the other PETRA image. An expectation maximization based clustering was performed on the co-registered PETRA image to identify the soft tissues, dense bone and air class membership probabilities. A tissue specific non linear regression model was built from one registered CT-PETRA pair dataset to predict the sCT of the second PETRA image in a two-fold cross validation schema. A complete substitute CT is generated in 3 min. The mean absolute HU error for air was 0.3 HU, bone was 95 HU, fat was 30 HU and for muscle it was 10 HU. The mean surface reconstruction error for the bone was 1.3 mm. The PETRA sequence enabled a low mean absolute surface distance for the bone and a low HU error for other classes. The sCT generated from a single PETRA sequence shows promise for the generation of fast sCT for MRI based radiation therapy planning.

Sampling and sensitivity analyses tools (SaSAT) for computational modelling

PubMed Central

Hoare, Alexander; Regan, David G; Wilson, David P

2008-01-01

SaSAT (Sampling and Sensitivity Analysis Tools) is a user-friendly software package for applying uncertainty and sensitivity analyses to mathematical and computational models of arbitrary complexity and context. The toolbox is built in Matlab®, a numerical mathematical software package, and utilises algorithms contained in the Matlab® Statistics Toolbox. However, Matlab® is not required to use SaSAT as the software package is provided as an executable file with all the necessary supplementary files. The SaSAT package is also designed to work seamlessly with Microsoft Excel but no functionality is forfeited if that software is not available. A comprehensive suite of tools is provided to enable the following tasks to be easily performed: efficient and equitable sampling of parameter space by various methodologies; calculation of correlation coefficients; regression analysis; factor prioritisation; and graphical output of results, including response surfaces, tornado plots, and scatterplots. Use of SaSAT is exemplified by application to a simple epidemic model. To our knowledge, a number of the methods available in SaSAT for performing sensitivity analyses have not previously been used in epidemiological modelling and their usefulness in this context is demonstrated. PMID:18304361

Cognitive predictors of copying and drawing from memory of the Rey-Osterrieth complex figure in 7- to 10-year-old children.

PubMed

Senese, Vincenzo Paolo; De Lucia, Natascia; Conson, Massimiliano

2015-01-01

Cognitive models of drawing are mainly based on assessment of copying performance of adults, whereas only a few studies have verified these models in young children. Moreover, developmental investigations have only rarely performed a systematic examination of the contribution of perceptual and representational visuo-spatial processes to copying and drawing from memory. In this study we investigated the role of visual perception and mental representation in both copying and drawing from memory skills in a sample of 227 typically developing children (53% females) aged 7-10 years. Participants underwent a neuropsychological assessment and the Rey-Osterrieth Complex Figure (ROCF). The fit and invariance of the predictive model considering visuo-spatial abilities, working memory, and executive functions were tested by means of hierarchical regressions and path analysis. Results showed that, in a gender invariant way, visual perception abilities and spatial mental representation had a direct effect on copying performance, whereas copying performance was the only specific predictor for drawing from memory. These effects were independent from age and socioeconomic status, and showed that cognitive models of drawing built up for adults could be considered for predicting copying and drawing from memory in children.

Structure-based predictions of 13C-NMR chemical shifts for a series of 2-functionalized 5-(methylsulfonyl)-1-phenyl-1H-indoles derivatives using GA-based MLR method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghavami, Raouf; Sadeghi, Faridoon; Rasouli, Zolikha; Djannati, Farhad

2012-12-01

Experimental values for the 13C NMR chemical shifts (ppm, TMS = 0) at 300 K ranging from 96.28 ppm (C4' of indole derivative 17) to 159.93 ppm (C4' of indole derivative 23) relative to deuteride chloroform (CDCl3, 77.0 ppm) or dimethylsulfoxide (DMSO, 39.50 ppm) as internal reference in CDCl3 or DMSO-d6 solutions have been collected from literature for thirty 2-functionalized 5-(methylsulfonyl)-1-phenyl-1H-indole derivatives containing different substituted groups. An effective quantitative structure-property relationship (QSPR) models were built using hybrid method combining genetic algorithm (GA) based on stepwise selection multiple linear regression (SWS-MLR) as feature-selection tools and correlation models between each carbon atom of indole derivative and calculated descriptors. Each compound was depicted by molecular structural descriptors that encode constitutional, topological, geometrical, electrostatic, and quantum chemical features. The accuracy of all developed models were confirmed using different types of internal and external procedures and various statistical tests. Furthermore, the domain of applicability for each model which indicates the area of reliable predictions was defined.

Improved helicopter aeromechanical stability analysis using segmented constrained layer damping and hybrid optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Qiang; Chattopadhyay, Aditi

2000-06-01

Aeromechanical stability plays a critical role in helicopter design and lead-lag damping is crucial to this design. In this paper, the use of segmented constrained damping layer (SCL) treatment and composite tailoring is investigated for improved rotor aeromechanical stability using formal optimization technique. The principal load-carrying member in the rotor blade is represented by a composite box beam, of arbitrary thickness, with surface bonded SCLs. A comprehensive theory is used to model the smart box beam. A ground resonance analysis model and an air resonance analysis model are implemented in the rotor blade built around the composite box beam with SCLs. The Pitt-Peters dynamic inflow model is used in air resonance analysis under hover condition. A hybrid optimization technique is used to investigate the optimum design of the composite box beam with surface bonded SCLs for improved damping characteristics. Parameters such as stacking sequence of the composite laminates and placement of SCLs are used as design variables. Detailed numerical studies are presented for aeromechanical stability analysis. It is shown that optimum blade design yields significant increase in rotor lead-lag regressive modal damping compared to the initial system.

VoxelStats: A MATLAB Package for Multi-Modal Voxel-Wise Brain Image Analysis.

PubMed

Mathotaarachchi, Sulantha; Wang, Seqian; Shin, Monica; Pascoal, Tharick A; Benedet, Andrea L; Kang, Min Su; Beaudry, Thomas; Fonov, Vladimir S; Gauthier, Serge; Labbe, Aurélie; Rosa-Neto, Pedro

2016-01-01

In healthy individuals, behavioral outcomes are highly associated with the variability on brain regional structure or neurochemical phenotypes. Similarly, in the context of neurodegenerative conditions, neuroimaging reveals that cognitive decline is linked to the magnitude of atrophy, neurochemical declines, or concentrations of abnormal protein aggregates across brain regions. However, modeling the effects of multiple regional abnormalities as determinants of cognitive decline at the voxel level remains largely unexplored by multimodal imaging research, given the high computational cost of estimating regression models for every single voxel from various imaging modalities. VoxelStats is a voxel-wise computational framework to overcome these computational limitations and to perform statistical operations on multiple scalar variables and imaging modalities at the voxel level. VoxelStats package has been developed in Matlab(®) and supports imaging formats such as Nifti-1, ANALYZE, and MINC v2. Prebuilt functions in VoxelStats enable the user to perform voxel-wise general and generalized linear models and mixed effect models with multiple volumetric covariates. Importantly, VoxelStats can recognize scalar values or image volumes as response variables and can accommodate volumetric statistical covariates as well as their interaction effects with other variables. Furthermore, this package includes built-in functionality to perform voxel-wise receiver operating characteristic analysis and paired and unpaired group contrast analysis. Validation of VoxelStats was conducted by comparing the linear regression functionality with existing toolboxes such as glim_image and RMINC. The validation results were identical to existing methods and the additional functionality was demonstrated by generating feature case assessments (t-statistics, odds ratio, and true positive rate maps). In summary, VoxelStats expands the current methods for multimodal imaging analysis by allowing the estimation of advanced regional association metrics at the voxel level.

Predicting energy expenditure through hand rim propulsion power output in individuals who use wheelchairs.

PubMed

Conger, Scott A; Scott, Stacy N; Bassett, David R

2014-07-01

To examine the relationship between hand rim propulsion power and energy expenditure (EE) during wheelchair wheeling and to investigate whether adding other variables to the model could improve on the prediction of EE. Individuals who use manual wheelchairs (n=14) performed five different wheeling activities in a wheelchair with a PowerTap power meter hub built into the right rear wheel. Activities included wheeling on a smooth, level surface at three different speeds (4.5, 5.5 and 6.5 km/h), wheeling on a rubberised track at one speed (5.5 km/h) and wheeling on a sidewalk course that included uphill and downhill segments at a self-selected speed. EE was measured using a portable indirect calorimetry system. Stepwise linear regression was performed to predict EE from power output variables. A repeated-measures analysis of variance was used to compare the measured EE to the estimates from the power models. Bland-Altman plots were used to assess the agreement between the criterion values and the predicted values. EE and power were significantly correlated (r=0.694, p<0.001). Regression analysis yielded three significant prediction models utilising measured power; measured power and speed; and measured power, speed and heart rate. No significant differences were found between measured EE and any of the prediction models. EE can be accurately and precisely estimated based on hand rim propulsion power. These results indicate that power could be used as a method to assess EE in individuals who use wheelchairs. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Comparing the appropriate geographic region for assessing built environmental correlates with walking trips using different metrics and model approaches

PubMed Central

Tribby, Calvin P.; Miller, Harvey J.; Brown, Barbara B.; Smith, Ken R.; Werner, Carol M.

2017-01-01

There is growing international evidence that supportive built environments encourage active travel such as walking. An unsettled question is the role of geographic regions for analyzing the relationship between the built environment and active travel. This paper examines the geographic region question by assessing walking trip models that use two different regions: walking activity spaces and self-defined neighborhoods. We also use two types of built environment metrics, perceived and audit data, and two types of study design, cross-sectional and longitudinal, to assess these regions. We find that the built environment associations with walking are dependent on the type of metric and the type of model. Audit measures summarized within walking activity spaces better explain walking trips compared to audit measures within self-defined neighborhoods. Perceived measures summarized within self-defined neighborhoods have mixed results. Finally, results differ based on study design. This suggests that results may not be comparable among different regions, metrics and designs; researchers need to consider carefully these choices when assessing active travel correlates. PMID:28237743

A cross-sectional examination of school characteristics associated with overweight and obesity among grade 1 to 4 students

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Excessive weight gain among youth is an ongoing public health concern. Despite evidence linking both policies and the built environment to adolescent and adult overweight, the association between health policies or the built environment and overweight are often overlooked in research with children. The purpose of this study was to examine if school-based physical activity policies and the built environment surrounding a school are associated with weight status among children. Methods Objectively measured height and weight data were available for 2,331 grade 1 to 4 students (aged 6 to 9 years) attending 30 elementary schools in Ontario, Canada. Student-level data were collected using parent reports and the PLAY-On questionnaire administered to students by study nurses. School-level policy data were collected from school administrators using the Physical Activity Module of the Healthy School Planner tool, and built environment data were provided by the Enhanced Points of Interest data resource. Multi-level logistic regression models were used to examine the school- and student-level characteristics associated with the odds of a student being overweight or obese. Results There was significant between-school random variation in the odds of a student being overweight [σ2μ0 = 0.274(0.106), p < 0.001], but not for being obese [σ2μ0 = 0.115(0.089)]. If a student attended a school that provided student access to a variety of facilities on and off school grounds during school hours or supported active transportation to and from school, he/she was less likely to overweight than a similar student attending a school without these policies. Characteristics of the built environment were not associated with overweight or obesity among this large cross-sectional sample of children. Conclusions This new evidence suggests that it may be wise to target obesity prevention efforts to schools that do not provide student access to recreation facilities during school hours or schools that do not support active transportation for students. Future research should evaluate if school-based overweight and obesity prevention programming might be improved if interventions selectively targeted the school characteristics that are putting students at the greatest risk. PMID:24139176

Wave-optics uncertainty propagation and regression-based bias model in GNSS radio occultation bending angle retrievals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gorbunov, Michael E.; Kirchengast, Gottfried

2018-01-01

A new reference occultation processing system (rOPS) will include a Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) radio occultation (RO) retrieval chain with integrated uncertainty propagation. In this paper, we focus on wave-optics bending angle (BA) retrieval in the lower troposphere and introduce (1) an empirically estimated boundary layer bias (BLB) model then employed to reduce the systematic uncertainty of excess phases and bending angles in about the lowest 2 km of the troposphere and (2) the estimation of (residual) systematic uncertainties and their propagation together with random uncertainties from excess phase to bending angle profiles. Our BLB model describes the estimated bias of the excess phase transferred from the estimated bias of the bending angle, for which the model is built, informed by analyzing refractivity fluctuation statistics shown to induce such biases. The model is derived from regression analysis using a large ensemble of Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC) RO observations and concurrent European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analysis fields. It is formulated in terms of predictors and adaptive functions (powers and cross products of predictors), where we use six main predictors derived from observations: impact altitude, latitude, bending angle and its standard deviation, canonical transform (CT) amplitude, and its fluctuation index. Based on an ensemble of test days, independent of the days of data used for the regression analysis to establish the BLB model, we find the model very effective for bias reduction and capable of reducing bending angle and corresponding refractivity biases by about a factor of 5. The estimated residual systematic uncertainty, after the BLB profile subtraction, is lower bounded by the uncertainty from the (indirect) use of ECMWF analysis fields but is significantly lower than the systematic uncertainty without BLB correction. The systematic and random uncertainties are propagated from excess phase to bending angle profiles, using a perturbation approach and the wave-optical method recently introduced by Gorbunov and Kirchengast (2015), starting with estimated excess phase uncertainties. The results are encouraging and this uncertainty propagation approach combined with BLB correction enables a robust reduction and quantification of the uncertainties of excess phases and bending angles in the lower troposphere.

Baseline Correction of Diffuse Reflection Near-Infrared Spectra Using Searching Region Standard Normal Variate (SRSNV).

PubMed

Genkawa, Takuma; Shinzawa, Hideyuki; Kato, Hideaki; Ishikawa, Daitaro; Murayama, Kodai; Komiyama, Makoto; Ozaki, Yukihiro

2015-12-01

An alternative baseline correction method for diffuse reflection near-infrared (NIR) spectra, searching region standard normal variate (SRSNV), was proposed. Standard normal variate (SNV) is an effective pretreatment method for baseline correction of diffuse reflection NIR spectra of powder and granular samples; however, its baseline correction performance depends on the NIR region used for SNV calculation. To search for an optimal NIR region for baseline correction using SNV, SRSNV employs moving window partial least squares regression (MWPLSR), and an optimal NIR region is identified based on the root mean square error (RMSE) of cross-validation of the partial least squares regression (PLSR) models with the first latent variable (LV). The performance of SRSNV was evaluated using diffuse reflection NIR spectra of mixture samples consisting of wheat flour and granular glucose (0-100% glucose at 5% intervals). From the obtained NIR spectra of the mixture in the 10 000-4000 cm(-1) region at 4 cm intervals (1501 spectral channels), a series of spectral windows consisting of 80 spectral channels was constructed, and then SNV spectra were calculated for each spectral window. Using these SNV spectra, a series of PLSR models with the first LV for glucose concentration was built. A plot of RMSE versus the spectral window position obtained using the PLSR models revealed that the 8680–8364 cm(-1) region was optimal for baseline correction using SNV. In the SNV spectra calculated using the 8680–8364 cm(-1) region (SRSNV spectra), a remarkable relative intensity change between a band due to wheat flour at 8500 cm(-1) and that due to glucose at 8364 cm(-1) was observed owing to successful baseline correction using SNV. A PLSR model with the first LV based on the SRSNV spectra yielded a determination coefficient (R2) of 0.999 and an RMSE of 0.70%, while a PLSR model with three LVs based on SNV spectra calculated in the full spectral region gave an R2 of 0.995 and an RMSE of 2.29%. Additional evaluation of SRSNV was carried out using diffuse reflection NIR spectra of marzipan and corn samples, and PLSR models based on SRSNV spectra showed good prediction results. These evaluation results indicate that SRSNV is effective in baseline correction of diffuse reflection NIR spectra and provides regression models with good prediction accuracy.

Local air gap thickness and contact area models for realistic simulation of human thermo-physiological response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Psikuta, Agnes; Mert, Emel; Annaheim, Simon; Rossi, René M.

2018-02-01

To evaluate the quality of new energy-saving and performance-supporting building and urban settings, the thermal sensation and comfort models are often used. The accuracy of these models is related to accurate prediction of the human thermo-physiological response that, in turn, is highly sensitive to the local effect of clothing. This study aimed at the development of an empirical regression model of the air gap thickness and the contact area in clothing to accurately simulate human thermal and perceptual response. The statistical model predicted reliably both parameters for 14 body regions based on the clothing ease allowances. The effect of the standard error in air gap prediction on the thermo-physiological response was lower than the differences between healthy humans. It was demonstrated that currently used assumptions and methods for determination of the air gap thickness can produce a substantial error for all global, mean, and local physiological parameters, and hence, lead to false estimation of the resultant physiological state of the human body, thermal sensation, and comfort. Thus, this model may help researchers to strive for improvement of human thermal comfort, health, productivity, safety, and overall sense of well-being with simultaneous reduction of energy consumption and costs in built environment.

A Synoptic Weather Typing Approach to Assess Climate Change Impacts on Meteorological and Hydrological Risks at Local Scale in South-Central Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Chad Shouquan; Li, Qian; Li, Guilong

2010-05-01

The synoptic weather typing approach has become popular in evaluating the impacts of climate change on a variety of environmental problems. One of the reasons is its ability to categorize a complex set of meteorological variables as a coherent index, which can facilitate analyses of local climate change impacts. The weather typing method has been applied in Environment Canada to analyze climatic change impacts on various meteorological/hydrological risks, such as freezing rain, heavy rainfall, high-/low-flow events, air pollution, and human health. These studies comprise of three major parts: (1) historical simulation modeling to verify the hazardous events, (2) statistical downscaling to provide station-scale future climate information, and (3) estimates of changes in frequency and magnitude of future hazardous meteorological/hydrological events in this century. To achieve these goals, in addition to synoptic weather typing, the modeling conceptualizations in meteorology and hydrology and various linear/nonlinear regression techniques were applied. Furthermore, a formal model result verification process has been built into the entire modeling exercise. The results of the verification, based on historical observations of the outcome variables predicted by the models, showed very good agreement. This paper will briefly summarize these research projects, focusing on the modeling exercise and results.

Personalized pseudophakic model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ribeiro, F.; Castanheira-Dinis, A.; Dias, J. M.

2014-08-01

With the aim of taking into account all optical aberrations, a personalized pseudophakic optical model was designed for refractive evaluation using ray tracing software. Starting with a generic model, all clinically measurable data were replaced by personalized measurements. Data from corneal anterior and posterior surfaces were imported from a grid of elevation data obtained by topography, and a formula for the calculation of the intraocular lens (IOL) position was developed based on the lens equator. For the assessment of refractive error, a merit function minimized by the approximation of the Modulation Transfer Function values to diffraction limit values on the frequencies corresponding up to the discrimination limits of the human eye, weighted depending on the human contrast sensitivity function, was built. The model was tested on the refractive evaluation of 50 pseudophakic eyes. The developed model shows good correlation with subjective evaluation of a pseudophakic population, having the added advantage of being independent of corrective factors, allowing it to be immediately adaptable to new technological developments. In conclusion, this personalized model, which uses individual biometric values, allows for a precise refractive assessment and is a valuable tool for an accurate IOL power calculation, including in conditions to which population averages and the commonly used regression correction factors do not apply, thus achieving the goal of being both personalized and universally applicable.

Testing concordance of instrumental variable effects in generalized linear models with application to Mendelian randomization

PubMed Central

Dai, James Y.; Chan, Kwun Chuen Gary; Hsu, Li

2014-01-01

Instrumental variable regression is one way to overcome unmeasured confounding and estimate causal effect in observational studies. Built on structural mean models, there has been considerale work recently developed for consistent estimation of causal relative risk and causal odds ratio. Such models can sometimes suffer from identification issues for weak instruments. This hampered the applicability of Mendelian randomization analysis in genetic epidemiology. When there are multiple genetic variants available as instrumental variables, and causal effect is defined in a generalized linear model in the presence of unmeasured confounders, we propose to test concordance between instrumental variable effects on the intermediate exposure and instrumental variable effects on the disease outcome, as a means to test the causal effect. We show that a class of generalized least squares estimators provide valid and consistent tests of causality. For causal effect of a continuous exposure on a dichotomous outcome in logistic models, the proposed estimators are shown to be asymptotically conservative. When the disease outcome is rare, such estimators are consistent due to the log-linear approximation of the logistic function. Optimality of such estimators relative to the well-known two-stage least squares estimator and the double-logistic structural mean model is further discussed. PMID:24863158

The development of a VBHOM-based outcome model for lower limb amputation performed for critical ischaemia.

PubMed

Tang, T Y; Prytherch, D R; Walsh, S R; Athanassoglou, V; Seppi, V; Sadat, U; Lees, T A; Varty, K; Boyle, J R

2009-01-01

VBHOM (Vascular Biochemistry and Haematology Outcome Models) adopts the approach of using a minimum data set to model outcome and has been previously shown to be feasible after index arterial operations. This study attempts to model mortality following lower limb amputation for critical limb ischaemia using the VBHOM concept. A binary logistic regression model of risk of mortality was built using National Vascular Database items that contained the complete data required by the model from 269 admissions for lower limb amputation. The subset of NVD data items used were urea, creatinine, sodium, potassium, haemoglobin, white cell count, age on and mode of admission. This model was applied prospectively to a test set of data (n=269), which were not part of the original training set to develop the predictor equation. Outcome following lower limb amputation could be described accurately using the same model. The overall mean predicted risk of mortality was 32%, predicting 86 deaths. Actual number of deaths was 86 (chi(2)=8.05, 8 d.f., p=0.429; no evidence of lack of fit). The model demonstrated adequate discrimination (c-index=0.704). VBHOM provides a single unified model that allows good prediction of surgical mortality in this high risk group of individuals. It uses a small, simple and objective clinical data set that may also simplify comparative audit within vascular surgery.

1. MODEL OF THE EVELINA M. GOULART AS BUILT BY ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

1. MODEL OF THE EVELINA M. GOULART AS BUILT BY DR. WILLIAM G. HEISEY. IT DEPICTS THE GOULART AS SHE APPEARED IN THE SUMMER OF 1927 SHORTLY AFTER LAUNCHING AND RIGGED FOR SWORDFISHING. - Auxiliary Fishing Schooner "Evelina M. Goulart", Essex Shipbuilding Museum, 66 Main Street, Essex, Essex County, MA

Prediction of microstructure, residual stress, and deformation in laser powder bed fusion process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Y. P.; Jamshidinia, M.; Boulware, P.; Kelly, S. M.

2018-05-01

Laser powder bed fusion (L-PBF) process has been investigated significantly to build production parts with a complex shape. Modeling tools, which can be used in a part level, are essential to allow engineers to fine tune the shape design and process parameters for additive manufacturing. This study focuses on developing modeling methods to predict microstructure, hardness, residual stress, and deformation in large L-PBF built parts. A transient sequentially coupled thermal and metallurgical analysis method was developed to predict microstructure and hardness on L-PBF built high-strength, low-alloy steel parts. A moving heat-source model was used in this analysis to accurately predict the temperature history. A kinetics based model which was developed to predict microstructure in the heat-affected zone of a welded joint was extended to predict the microstructure and hardness in an L-PBF build by inputting the predicted temperature history. The tempering effect resulting from the following built layers on the current-layer microstructural phases were modeled, which is the key to predict the final hardness correctly. It was also found that the top layers of a build part have higher hardness because of the lack of the tempering effect. A sequentially coupled thermal and mechanical analysis method was developed to predict residual stress and deformation for an L-PBF build part. It was found that a line-heating model is not suitable for analyzing a large L-PBF built part. The layer heating method is a potential method for analyzing a large L-PBF built part. The experiment was conducted to validate the model predictions.

Building Construction Progress Monitoring Using Unmanned Aerial System (uas), Low-Cost Photogrammetry, and Geographic Information System (gis)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bognot, J. R.; Candido, C. G.; Blanco, A. C.; Montelibano, J. R. Y.

2018-05-01

Monitoring the progress of building's construction is critical in construction management. However, measuring the building construction's progress are still manual, time consuming, error prone, and impose tedious process of analysis leading to delays, additional costings and effort. The main goal of this research is to develop a methodology for building construction progress monitoring based on 3D as-built model of the building from unmanned aerial system (UAS) images, 4D as-planned model (with construction schedule integrated) and, GIS analysis. Monitoring was done by capturing videos of the building with a camera-equipped UAS. Still images were extracted, filtered, bundle-adjusted, and 3D as-built model was generated using open source photogrammetric software. The as-planned model was generated from digitized CAD drawings using GIS. The 3D as-built model was aligned with the 4D as-planned model of building formed from extrusion of building elements, and integration of the construction's planned schedule. The construction progress is visualized via color-coding the building elements in the 3D model. The developed methodology was conducted and applied from the data obtained from an actual construction site. Accuracy in detecting `built' or `not built' building elements ranges from 82-84 % and precision of 50-72 %. Quantified progress in terms of the number of building elements are 21.31% (November 2016), 26.84 % (January 2017) and 44.19 % (March 2017). The results can be used as an input for progress monitoring performance of construction projects and improving related decision-making process.

Prediction of microstructure, residual stress, and deformation in laser powder bed fusion process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Y. P.; Jamshidinia, M.; Boulware, P.; Kelly, S. M.

2017-12-01

Laser powder bed fusion (L-PBF) process has been investigated significantly to build production parts with a complex shape. Modeling tools, which can be used in a part level, are essential to allow engineers to fine tune the shape design and process parameters for additive manufacturing. This study focuses on developing modeling methods to predict microstructure, hardness, residual stress, and deformation in large L-PBF built parts. A transient sequentially coupled thermal and metallurgical analysis method was developed to predict microstructure and hardness on L-PBF built high-strength, low-alloy steel parts. A moving heat-source model was used in this analysis to accurately predict the temperature history. A kinetics based model which was developed to predict microstructure in the heat-affected zone of a welded joint was extended to predict the microstructure and hardness in an L-PBF build by inputting the predicted temperature history. The tempering effect resulting from the following built layers on the current-layer microstructural phases were modeled, which is the key to predict the final hardness correctly. It was also found that the top layers of a build part have higher hardness because of the lack of the tempering effect. A sequentially coupled thermal and mechanical analysis method was developed to predict residual stress and deformation for an L-PBF build part. It was found that a line-heating model is not suitable for analyzing a large L-PBF built part. The layer heating method is a potential method for analyzing a large L-PBF built part. The experiment was conducted to validate the model predictions.

Neuropsychiatric symptoms and caregiver's burden in Parkinson's disease.

PubMed

Martinez-Martin, Pablo; Rodriguez-Blazquez, Carmen; Forjaz, Maria João; Frades-Payo, Belén; Agüera-Ortiz, Luis; Weintraub, Daniel; Riesco, Ana; Kurtis, Monica M; Chaudhuri, Kallol Ray

2015-06-01

In Parkinson's disease (PD), neuropsychiatric symptoms (NPS) can be particularly burdensome for caregivers. The main goal of this study was to assess the impact of NPS, assessed by means of a new specific scale, on caregiver burden. A sample of 584 pairs of PD patients and their primary caregivers was studied. Patients' NPS were measured with the Scale for Evaluation of Neuropsychiatric Disorders in PD (SEND-PD), and the Zarit Caregiver Burden Inventory was used to quantify caregiver burden. Three linear regression models were built to check factors associated with caregiver burden, one for the total sample and two for subgroups stratified by the presence of dementia. The most frequent NPS were depression (in 66% of the sample), anxiety (65%) and mental fatigue (57%). Patients with dementia (n = 94; 16% of sample) consistently presented more NPS than patients without dementia (p < 0.001). On linear regression models, the main determinants of caregiver burden (for the total sample and the sample of patients without dementia) were SEND-PD dimensions mood/apathy and psychosis, PD-related disability and disease duration. For patients with dementia, the only significant caregiver burden determinants were SEND-PD psychosis and mood/apathy subscale scores. NPS in PD are highly associated with and are determinants of caregiver burden, and are more prevalent and burdensome in patients with dementia. Detailed assessment and specific interventions aimed at NPS could alleviate caregiver burden. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The comparison of landslide ratio-based and general logistic regression landslide susceptibility models in the Chishan watershed after 2009 Typhoon Morakot

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

WU, Chunhung

2015-04-01

The research built the original logistic regression landslide susceptibility model (abbreviated as or-LRLSM) and landslide ratio-based ogistic regression landslide susceptibility model (abbreviated as lr-LRLSM), compared the performance and explained the error source of two models. The research assumes that the performance of the logistic regression model can be better if the distribution of landslide ratio and weighted value of each variable is similar. Landslide ratio is the ratio of landslide area to total area in the specific area and an useful index to evaluate the seriousness of landslide disaster in Taiwan. The research adopted the landside inventory induced by 2009 Typhoon Morakot in the Chishan watershed, which was the most serious disaster event in the last decade, in Taiwan. The research adopted the 20 m grid as the basic unit in building the LRLSM, and six variables, including elevation, slope, aspect, geological formation, accumulated rainfall, and bank erosion, were included in the two models. The six variables were divided as continuous variables, including elevation, slope, and accumulated rainfall, and categorical variables, including aspect, geological formation and bank erosion in building the or-LRLSM, while all variables, which were classified based on landslide ratio, were categorical variables in building the lr-LRLSM. Because the count of whole basic unit in the Chishan watershed was too much to calculate by using commercial software, the research took random sampling instead of the whole basic units. The research adopted equal proportions of landslide unit and not landslide unit in logistic regression analysis. The research took 10 times random sampling and selected the group with the best Cox & Snell R2 value and Nagelkerker R2 value as the database for the following analysis. Based on the best result from 10 random sampling groups, the or-LRLSM (lr-LRLSM) is significant at the 1% level with Cox & Snell R2 = 0.190 (0.196) and Nagelkerke R2 = 0.253 (0.260). The unit with the landslide susceptibility value > 0.5 (≦ 0.5) will be classified as a predicted landslide unit (not landslide unit). The AUC, i.e. the area under the relative operating characteristic curve, of or-LRLSM in the Chishan watershed is 0.72, while that of lr-LRLSM is 0.77. Furthermore, the average correct ratio of lr-LRLSM (73.3%) is better than that of or-LRLSM (68.3%). The research analyzed in detail the error sources from the two models. In continuous variables, using the landslide ratio-based classification in building the lr-LRLSM can let the distribution of weighted value more similar to distribution of landslide ratio in the range of continuous variable than that in building the or-LRLSM. In categorical variables, the meaning of using the landslide ratio-based classification in building the lr-LRLSM is to gather the parameters with approximate landslide ratio together. The mean correct ratio in continuous variables (categorical variables) by using the lr-LRLSM is better than that in or-LRLSM by 0.6 ~ 2.6% (1.7% ~ 6.0%). Building the landslide susceptibility model by using landslide ratio-based classification is practical and of better performance than that by using the original logistic regression.

Environmental and personal correlates of physical activity and sedentary behavior in African American women: An ecological momentary assessment study.

PubMed

Zenk, Shannon N; Horoi, Irina; Jones, Kelly K; Finnegan, Lorna; Corte, Colleen; Riley, Barth; Wilbur, JoEllen

2017-04-01

The authors of this study examined within-person associations of environmental factors (weather, built and social environmental barriers) and personal factors (daily hassles, affect) with moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) and sedentary behavior (SB) in African American women aged 25-64 years living in metropolitan Chicago (n = 97). In 2012-13, for seven days, women wore an accelerometer and were signaled five times per day to complete a survey covering environmental and personal factors on a study-provided smartphone. Day-level measures of each were derived, and mixed regression models were used to test associations. Poor weather was associated with a 27.3% reduction in daily MVPA. Associations between built and social environmental barriers and daily MVPA or SB were generally not statistically significant. Negative affect at the first daily signal was associated with a 38.6% decrease in subsequent daily MVPA and a 33.2-minute increase in subsequent daily SB. Each one-minute increase in MVPA during the day was associated with a 2.2% higher likelihood of positive affect at the end of the day. SB during the day was associated with lower subsequent positive affect. Real-time interventions that address overcoming poor weather and negative affect may help African American women increase MVPA and/or decrease SB.

Youth Dietary Intake and Weight Status: Healthful Neighborhood Food Environments Enhance the Protective Role of Supportive Family Home Environments

PubMed Central

Berge, Jerica M.; Wall, Melanie; Larson, Nicole; Forsyth, Ann; Bauer, Katherine W.; Neumark-Sztainer, Dianne

2014-01-01

The aim of this study is to investigate individual and joint associations of the home environment and the neighborhood built environment with adolescent dietary patterns and body mass index (BMI) z-score. Racially/ethnically and socioeconomically diverse adolescents (n = 2682; 53.2% girls; mean age14. 4 years) participating in the EAT 2010 (Eating and Activity in Teens) study completed height and weight measurements and surveys in Minnesota middle and high schools. Neighborhood variables were measured using Geographic Information Systems data. Multiple regressions of BMI z-score, fruit and vegetable intake, and fast food consumption were fit including home and neighborhood environmental variables as predictors and also including their interactions to test for effect modification. Supportive family environments (i.e., higher family functioning, frequent family meals, parent modeling of healthful eating) were associated with higher adolescent fruit and vegetable intake, lower fast food consumption, and lower BMI z-score. Associations between the built environment and adolescent outcomes were fewer. Interaction results, although not all consistent, indicated that the relationship between a supportive family environment and adolescent fruit and vegetable intake and BMI was enhanced when the neighborhood was supportive of healthful behavior. Public health interventions that simultaneously improve both the home environment and the neighborhood environment of adolescents may have a greater impact on adolescent obesity prevention than interventions that address one of these environments alone. PMID:24378461

The school environment and sugar-sweetened beverage consumption among Guatemalan adolescents.

PubMed

Godin, Katelyn M; Chacón, Violeta; Barnoya, Joaquin; Leatherdale, Scott T

2017-11-01

The current study sought to examine Guatemalan adolescents' consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB), identify which individual-level characteristics are associated with SSB consumption and describe school characteristics that may influence students' SSB consumption. Within this observational pilot study, a questionnaire was used to assess students' consumption of three varieties of SSB (soft drinks, energy drinks, sweetened coffees/teas), as well as a variety of sociodemographic and behavioural characteristics. We collected built environment data to examine aspects of the school food environment. We developed Poisson regression models for each SSB variety and used descriptive analyses to characterize the sample. Guatemala City, Guatemala. Guatemalan adolescents (n 1042) from four (two public, two private) secondary schools. Built environment data revealed that students from the two public schools lacked access to water fountains/coolers. The SSB industry had a presence in the schools through advertisements, sponsored food kiosks and products available for sale. Common correlates of SSB consumption included school type, sedentary behaviour, frequency of purchasing lunch in the cafeteria, and frequency of purchasing snacks from vending machines in school and off school property. Guatemalan adolescents frequently consume SSB, which may be encouraged by aspects of the school environment. Schools represent a viable setting for equitable population health interventions designed to reduce SSB consumption, including increasing access to clean drinking-water, reducing access to SSB, restricting SSB marketing and greater enforcement of existing food policies.

An optimal set of landmarks for metopic craniosynostosis diagnosis from shape analysis of pediatric CT scans of the head

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mendoza, Carlos S.; Safdar, Nabile; Myers, Emmarie; Kittisarapong, Tanakorn; Rogers, Gary F.; Linguraru, Marius George

2013-02-01

Craniosynostosis (premature fusion of skull sutures) is a severe condition present in one of every 2000 newborns. Metopic craniosynostosis, accounting for 20-27% of cases, is diagnosed qualitatively in terms of skull shape abnormality, a subjective call of the surgeon. In this paper we introduce a new quantitative diagnostic feature for metopic craniosynostosis derived optimally from shape analysis of CT scans of the skull. We built a robust shape analysis pipeline that is capable of obtaining local shape differences in comparison to normal anatomy. Spatial normalization using 7-degree-of-freedom registration of the base of the skull is followed by a novel bone labeling strategy based on graph-cuts according to labeling priors. The statistical shape model built from 94 normal subjects allows matching a patient's anatomy to its most similar normal subject. Subsequently, the computation of local malformations from a normal subject allows characterization of the points of maximum malformation on each of the frontal bones adjacent to the metopic suture, and on the suture itself. Our results show that the malformations at these locations vary significantly (p<0.001) between abnormal/normal subjects and that an accurate diagnosis can be achieved using linear regression from these automatic measurements with an area under the curve for the receiver operating characteristic of 0.97.

The chick embryo: a leading model in somitogenesis studies.

PubMed

Pourquié, Olivier

2004-09-01

The vertebrate body is built on a metameric organization which consists of a repetition of functionally equivalent units, each comprising a vertebra, its associated muscles, peripheral nerves and blood vessels. This periodic pattern is established during embryogenesis by the somitogenesis process. Somites are generated in a rhythmic fashion from the presomitic mesoderm and they subsequently differentiate to give rise to the vertebrae and skeletal muscles of the body. Somitogenesis has been very actively studied in the chick embryo since the 19th century and many of the landmark experiments that led to our current understanding of the vertebrate segmentation process have been performed in this organism. Somite formation involves an oscillator, the segmentation clock whose periodic signal is converted into the periodic array of somite boundaries by a spacing mechanism relying on a traveling threshold of FGF signaling regressing in concert with body axis extension.

Numerical Model of the Hoosic River Flood-Control Channel, Adams, MA

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-02-01

The model was then used to evaluate the flow conditions associated with the as-built channel configuration. The existing channel conditions were then...end as part of a channel restoration project. The model was to determine if restoration alterations would change water- surface elevations associated ...water-surface elevations associated with the initial design and construction. After as-built flow conditions were established, flow conditions

Prediction of thrombophilia in patients with unexplained recurrent pregnancy loss using a statistical model.

PubMed

Wang, Tongfei; Kang, Xiaomin; He, Liying; Liu, Zhilan; Xu, Haijing; Zhao, Aimin

2017-09-01

To establish a statistical model to predict thrombophilia in patients with unexplained recurrent pregnancy loss (URPL). A retrospective case-control study was conducted at Ren Ji Hospital, Shanghai, China, from March 2014 to October 2016. The levels of D-dimer (DD), fibrinogen degradation products (FDP), activated partial thromboplastin time (APTT), prothrombin time (PT), thrombin time (TT), fibrinogen (Fg), and platelet aggregation in response to arachidonic acid (AA) and adenosine diphosphate (ADP) were collected. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was used to analyze data from 158 UPRL patients (≥3 previous first trimester pregnancy losses with unexplained etiology) and 131 non-RPL patients (no history of recurrent pregnancy loss). A logistic regression model (LRM) was built and the model was externally validated in another group of patients. The LRM included AA, DD, FDP, TT, APTT, and PT. The overall accuracy of the LRM was 80.9%, with sensitivity and specificity of 78.5% and 78.3%, respectively. The diagnostic threshold of the possibility of the LRM was 0.6492, with a sensitivity of 78.5% and a specificity of 78.3%. Subsequently, the LRM was validated with an overall accuracy of 83.6%. The LRM is a valuable model for prediction of thrombophilia in URPL patients. © 2017 International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics.

Hyperspectral Analysis of Soil Total Nitrogen in Subsided Land Using the Local Correlation Maximization-Complementary Superiority (LCMCS) Method.

PubMed

Lin, Lixin; Wang, Yunjia; Teng, Jiyao; Xi, Xiuxiu

2015-07-23

The measurement of soil total nitrogen (TN) by hyperspectral remote sensing provides an important tool for soil restoration programs in areas with subsided land caused by the extraction of natural resources. This study used the local correlation maximization-complementary superiority method (LCMCS) to establish TN prediction models by considering the relationship between spectral reflectance (measured by an ASD FieldSpec 3 spectroradiometer) and TN based on spectral reflectance curves of soil samples collected from subsided land which is determined by synthetic aperture radar interferometry (InSAR) technology. Based on the 1655 selected effective bands of the optimal spectrum (OSP) of the first derivate differential of reciprocal logarithm ([log{1/R}]'), (correlation coefficients, p < 0.01), the optimal model of LCMCS method was obtained to determine the final model, which produced lower prediction errors (root mean square error of validation [RMSEV] = 0.89, mean relative error of validation [MREV] = 5.93%) when compared with models built by the local correlation maximization (LCM), complementary superiority (CS) and partial least squares regression (PLS) methods. The predictive effect of LCMCS model was optional in Cangzhou, Renqiu and Fengfeng District. Results indicate that the LCMCS method has great potential to monitor TN in subsided lands caused by the extraction of natural resources including groundwater, oil and coal.

Application of Linear Mixed-Effects Models in Human Neuroscience Research: A Comparison with Pearson Correlation in Two Auditory Electrophysiology Studies.

PubMed

Koerner, Tess K; Zhang, Yang

2017-02-27

Neurophysiological studies are often designed to examine relationships between measures from different testing conditions, time points, or analysis techniques within the same group of participants. Appropriate statistical techniques that can take into account repeated measures and multivariate predictor variables are integral and essential to successful data analysis and interpretation. This work implements and compares conventional Pearson correlations and linear mixed-effects (LME) regression models using data from two recently published auditory electrophysiology studies. For the specific research questions in both studies, the Pearson correlation test is inappropriate for determining strengths between the behavioral responses for speech-in-noise recognition and the multiple neurophysiological measures as the neural responses across listening conditions were simply treated as independent measures. In contrast, the LME models allow a systematic approach to incorporate both fixed-effect and random-effect terms to deal with the categorical grouping factor of listening conditions, between-subject baseline differences in the multiple measures, and the correlational structure among the predictor variables. Together, the comparative data demonstrate the advantages as well as the necessity to apply mixed-effects models to properly account for the built-in relationships among the multiple predictor variables, which has important implications for proper statistical modeling and interpretation of human behavior in terms of neural correlates and biomarkers.

Prediction of GWL with the help of GRACE TWS for unevenly spaced time series data in India : Analysis of comparative performances of SVR, ANN and LRM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mukherjee, Amritendu; Ramachandran, Parthasarathy

2018-03-01

Prediction of Ground Water Level (GWL) is extremely important for sustainable use and management of ground water resource. The motivations for this work is to understand the relationship between Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) derived terrestrial water change (ΔTWS) data and GWL, so that ΔTWS could be used as a proxy measurement for GWL. In our study, we have selected five observation wells from different geographic regions in India. The datasets are unevenly spaced time series data which restricts us from applying standard time series methodologies and therefore in order to model and predict GWL with the help of ΔTWS, we have built Linear Regression Model (LRM), Support Vector Regression (SVR) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN). Comparative performances of LRM, SVR and ANN have been evaluated with the help of correlation coefficient (ρ) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) between the actual and fitted (for training dataset) or predicted (for test dataset) values of GWL. It has been observed in our study that ΔTWS is highly significant variable to model GWL and the amount of total variations in GWL that could be explained with the help of ΔTWS varies from 36.48% to 74.28% (0.3648 ⩽R2 ⩽ 0.7428) . We have found that for the model GWL ∼ Δ TWS, for both training and test dataset, performances of SVR and ANN are better than that of LRM in terms of ρ and RMSE. It also has been found in our study that with the inclusion of meteorological variables along with ΔTWS as input parameters to model GWL, the performance of SVR improves and it performs better than ANN. These results imply that for modelling irregular time series GWL data, ΔTWS could be very useful.

Understanding Physical Activity through Interactions Between the Built Environment and Social Cognition: A Systematic Review.

PubMed

Rhodes, Ryan E; Saelens, Brian E; Sauvage-Mar, Claire

2018-05-16

Few people in most developed nations engage in regular physical activity (PA), despite its well-established health benefits. Socioecological models highlight the potential interaction of multiple factors from policy and the built environment to individual social cognition in explaining PA. The purpose of this review was to appraise this interaction tenet of the socioecological model between the built environment and social cognition to predict PA. Eligible studies had to have been published in peer-reviewed journals in the English language, and included any tests of interaction between social cognition and the built environment with PA. Literature searches, concluded in October 2017, used five common databases. Findings were grouped by type of PA outcomes (leisure, transportation, total PA and total moderate-vigorous PA [MVPA]), then grouped by the type of interactions between social cognitive and built environment constructs. The initial search yielded 308 hits, which was reduced to 22 independent studies of primarily high- to medium-quality after screening for eligibility criteria. The interaction tenet of the socioecological model was not supported for overall MVPA and total PA. By contrast, while there was heterogeneity of findings for leisure-time PA, environmental accessibility/convenience interacted with intention, and environmental aesthetics interacted with affective judgments, to predict leisure-time PA. Interactions between the built environment and social cognition in PA for transport are limited, with current results failing to support an effect. The results provide some support for interactive aspects of the built environment and social cognition in leisure-time PA, and thus highlight potential areas for integrated intervention of individual and environmental change.

A real-time heat strain risk classifier using heart rate and skin temperature.

PubMed

Buller, Mark J; Latzka, William A; Yokota, Miyo; Tharion, William J; Moran, Daniel S

2008-12-01

Heat injury is a real concern to workers engaged in physically demanding tasks in high heat strain environments. Several real-time physiological monitoring systems exist that can provide indices of heat strain, e.g. physiological strain index (PSI), and provide alerts to medical personnel. However, these systems depend on core temperature measurement using expensive, ingestible thermometer pills. Seeking a better solution, we suggest the use of a model which can identify the probability that individuals are 'at risk' from heat injury using non-invasive measures. The intent is for the system to identify individuals who need monitoring more closely or who should apply heat strain mitigation strategies. We generated a model that can identify 'at risk' (PSI 7.5) workers from measures of heart rate and chest skin temperature. The model was built using data from six previously published exercise studies in which some subjects wore chemical protective equipment. The model has an overall classification error rate of 10% with one false negative error (2.7%), and outperforms an earlier model and a least squares regression model with classification errors of 21% and 14%, respectively. Additionally, the model allows the classification criteria to be adjusted based on the task and acceptable level of risk. We conclude that the model could be a valuable part of a multi-faceted heat strain management system.

Multitask TSK fuzzy system modeling by mining intertask common hidden structure.

PubMed

Jiang, Yizhang; Chung, Fu-Lai; Ishibuchi, Hisao; Deng, Zhaohong; Wang, Shitong

2015-03-01

The classical fuzzy system modeling methods implicitly assume data generated from a single task, which is essentially not in accordance with many practical scenarios where data can be acquired from the perspective of multiple tasks. Although one can build an individual fuzzy system model for each task, the result indeed tells us that the individual modeling approach will get poor generalization ability due to ignoring the intertask hidden correlation. In order to circumvent this shortcoming, we consider a general framework for preserving the independent information among different tasks and mining hidden correlation information among all tasks in multitask fuzzy modeling. In this framework, a low-dimensional subspace (structure) is assumed to be shared among all tasks and hence be the hidden correlation information among all tasks. Under this framework, a multitask Takagi-Sugeno-Kang (TSK) fuzzy system model called MTCS-TSK-FS (TSK-FS for multiple tasks with common hidden structure), based on the classical L2-norm TSK fuzzy system, is proposed in this paper. The proposed model can not only take advantage of independent sample information from the original space for each task, but also effectively use the intertask common hidden structure among multiple tasks to enhance the generalization performance of the built fuzzy systems. Experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate the applicability and distinctive performance of the proposed multitask fuzzy system model in multitask regression learning scenarios.

In silico study of in vitro GPCR assays by QSAR modeling ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The U.S. EPA is screening thousands of chemicals of environmental interest in hundreds of in vitro high-throughput screening (HTS) assays (the ToxCast program). One goal is to prioritize chemicals for more detailed analyses based on activity in molecular initiating events (MIE) of adverse outcome pathways (AOPs). However, the chemical space of interest for environmental exposure is much wider than this set of chemicals. Thus, there is a need to fill data gaps with in silico methods, and quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSARs) are a proven and cost effective approach to predict biological activity. ToxCast in turn provides relatively large datasets that are ideal for training and testing QSAR models. The overall goal of the study described here was to develop QSAR models to fill the data gaps in a larger environmental database of ~32k structures. The specific aim of the current work was to build QSAR models for 18 G-Protein Coupled Receptor (GPCR) assays, part of the aminergic category. Two QSAR modeling strategies were adopted: classification models were developed to separate chemicals into active/non-active classes, and then regression models were built to predict the potency values of the bioassays for the active chemicals. Multiple software programs were used to calculate constitutional, topological and substructural molecular descriptors from two-dimensional (2D) chemical structures. Model-fitting methods included PLSDA (partial least squares d

Maximum Power Point Tracking Control of Hydrokinetic Turbine and Low-speed High-Thrust Permanent Magnet Generator Design

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-01-01

Schematic of the generator and power converters built in PLECS ............. 26 Figure 3.12. Block diagram of the MPPT control built in Matlab/Simulink...validated by simulation results done in Matlab/Simulink R2010a and PLECS . Figure 3.9 shows the block diagram of the hydrokinetic system built in Matlab...rectifier, boost converter and battery model built in PLECS . The battery bank on the load side is simulated by a constant dc voltage source. 25

An Interactive Multimedia Learning Environment for VLSI Built with COSMOS

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Angelides, Marios C.; Agius, Harry W.

2002-01-01

This paper presents Bigger Bits, an interactive multimedia learning environment that teaches students about VLSI within the context of computer electronics. The system was built with COSMOS (Content Oriented semantic Modelling Overlay Scheme), which is a modelling scheme that we developed for enabling the semantic content of multimedia to be used…

A stochastic flow-capturing model to optimize the location of fast-charging stations with uncertain electric vehicle flows

DOE PAGES

Wu, Fei; Sioshansi, Ramteen

2017-05-04

Here, we develop a model to optimize the location of public fast charging stations for electric vehicles (EVs). A difficulty in planning the placement of charging stations is uncertainty in where EV charging demands appear. For this reason, we use a stochastic flow-capturing location model (SFCLM). A sample-average approximation method and an averaged two-replication procedure are used to solve the problem and estimate the solution quality. We demonstrate the use of the SFCLM using a Central-Ohio based case study. We find that most of the stations built are concentrated around the urban core of the region. As the number ofmore » stations built increases, some appear on the outskirts of the region to provide an extended charging network. We find that the sets of optimal charging station locations as a function of the number of stations built are approximately nested. We demonstrate the benefits of the charging-station network in terms of how many EVs are able to complete their daily trips by charging midday—six public charging stations allow at least 60% of EVs that would otherwise not be able to complete their daily tours without the stations to do so. We finally compare the SFCLM to a deterministic model, in which EV flows are set equal to their expected values. We show that if a limited number of charging stations are to be built, the SFCLM outperforms the deterministic model. As the number of stations to be built increases, the SFCLM and deterministic model select very similar station locations.« less

Next day discharge rate has little use as a quality measure for individual physician performance.

PubMed

Inabnit, Christopher; Markwell, Stephen; Gruwell, Jack; Jaeger, Cassie; Millburg, Lance; Griffen, David

2018-06-18

Emergency Department (ED) physicians' next day discharge rate (NDDR), the percentage of patients who were admitted from the ED and subsequently discharged within the next calendar day was hypothesized as a potential measure for unnecessary admissions. The objective was to determine if NDDR has validity as a measure for quality of individual ED physician performance. Hospital admission data was obtained for thirty-six ED physicians for calendar year 2015. Funnel plots were used to identify NDDR outliers beyond 95% control limits. A mixed model logistic regression was built to investigate factors contributing to NDDR. To determine yearly variation, data from calendar years 2014 and 2016 were analyzed, again by funnel plots and logistic regression. Intraclass correlation coefficient was used to estimate the percent of total variation in NDDR attributable to individual ED physicians. NDDR varied significantly among ED physicians. Individual ED physician outliers in NDDR varied year to year. Individual ED physician contribution to NDDR variation was minimal, accounting for 1%. Years of experience in Emergency Medicine practice was not correlated with NDDR. NDDR does not appear to be a reliable independent quality measure for individual ED physician performance. The percent of variance attributable to the ED physician was 1%. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Near-infrared spectral image analysis of pork marbling based on Gabor filter and wide line detector techniques.

PubMed

Huang, Hui; Liu, Li; Ngadi, Michael O; Gariépy, Claude; Prasher, Shiv O

2014-01-01

Marbling is an important quality attribute of pork. Detection of pork marbling usually involves subjective scoring, which raises the efficiency costs to the processor. In this study, the ability to predict pork marbling using near-infrared (NIR) hyperspectral imaging (900-1700 nm) and the proper image processing techniques were studied. Near-infrared images were collected from pork after marbling evaluation according to current standard chart from the National Pork Producers Council. Image analysis techniques-Gabor filter, wide line detector, and spectral averaging-were applied to extract texture, line, and spectral features, respectively, from NIR images of pork. Samples were grouped into calibration and validation sets. Wavelength selection was performed on calibration set by stepwise regression procedure. Prediction models of pork marbling scores were built using multiple linear regressions based on derivatives of mean spectra and line features at key wavelengths. The results showed that the derivatives of both texture and spectral features produced good results, with correlation coefficients of validation of 0.90 and 0.86, respectively, using wavelengths of 961, 1186, and 1220 nm. The results revealed the great potential of the Gabor filter for analyzing NIR images of pork for the effective and efficient objective evaluation of pork marbling.

Landcover change and light pollution in Kota Bandarlampung

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rohman, Akmal F.; Hafidz, Muhammad; Hazairin, Azra Q.; Riadini, Fitri

2016-10-01

Excessive emission of light or light pollution at night is one of the elements of environmental pollution. Indirectly light pollution causes increase of fossil fuel use, greenhouse gasses and pollution in the atmosphere. Direct effects of light pollution including: disturbance of animals life, human's psychology and environmental degradation. Light pollution in an area is related with the existence of built-up area and the lack of vegetation as a manifestation of economic and population growth. This research aims to know the relation of land cover changes with light pollution in Bandar Lampung and surrounding with 40 km radius over the last ten years. This research used satellite imagery to obtained data and later does the verification and accuracy tests on the field. The variables used in this research include light pollution radiance value, percentages in the built-up area and vegetation density. Light pollution radiance value is obtained from DMSP-OLS Version 4 satellite images, while the changes of built up and vegetation density data obtained from NDBI dan NDVI from Landsat 8 satellite images. The research area is divided into a grid with a size of 30"×30" which is the same as spatial resolution of DMSP. From sample grids, regression analysis between the percentage of light pollution radiance value with the percentage of NDVI and NDBI index on each grids. The percentages of built up areas and vegetation has 58 % of fair correlation with light emission.

Geographic information systems and logistic regression for high-resolution malaria risk mapping in a rural settlement of the southern Brazilian Amazon.

PubMed

de Oliveira, Elaine Cristina; dos Santos, Emerson Soares; Zeilhofer, Peter; Souza-Santos, Reinaldo; Atanaka-Santos, Marina

2013-11-15

In Brazil, 99% of the cases of malaria are concentrated in the Amazon region, with high level of transmission. The objectives of the study were to use geographic information systems (GIS) analysis and logistic regression as a tool to identify and analyse the relative likelihood and its socio-environmental determinants of malaria infection in the Vale do Amanhecer rural settlement, Brazil. A GIS database of georeferenced malaria cases, recorded in 2005, and multiple explanatory data layers was built, based on a multispectral Landsat 5 TM image, digital map of the settlement blocks and a SRTM digital elevation model. Satellite imagery was used to map the spatial patterns of land use and cover (LUC) and to derive spectral indices of vegetation density (NDVI) and soil/vegetation humidity (VSHI). An Euclidian distance operator was applied to measure proximity of domiciles to potential mosquito breeding habitats and gold mining areas. The malaria risk model was generated by multiple logistic regression, in which environmental factors were considered as independent variables and the number of cases, binarized by a threshold value was the dependent variable. Out of a total of 336 cases of malaria, 133 positive slides were from inhabitants at Road 08, which corresponds to 37.60% of the notifications. The southern region of the settlement presented 276 cases and a greater number of domiciles in which more than ten cases/home were notified. From these, 102 (30.36%) cases were caused by Plasmodium falciparum and 174 (51.79%) cases by Plasmodium vivax. Malaria risk is the highest in the south of the settlement, associated with proximity to gold mining sites, intense land use, high levels of soil/vegetation humidity and low vegetation density. Mid-resolution, remote sensing data and GIS-derived distance measures can be successfully combined with digital maps of the housing location of (non-) infected inhabitants to predict relative likelihood of disease infection through the analysis by logistic regression. Obtained findings on the relation between malaria cases and environmental factors should be applied in the future for land use planning in rural settlements in the Southern Amazon to minimize risks of disease transmission.

The prisoner's dilemma as a cancer model.

PubMed

West, Jeffrey; Hasnain, Zaki; Mason, Jeremy; Newton, Paul K

2016-09-01

Tumor development is an evolutionary process in which a heterogeneous population of cells with different growth capabilities compete for resources in order to gain a proliferative advantage. What are the minimal ingredients needed to recreate some of the emergent features of such a developing complex ecosystem? What is a tumor doing before we can detect it? We outline a mathematical model, driven by a stochastic Moran process, in which cancer cells and healthy cells compete for dominance in the population. Each are assigned payoffs according to a Prisoner's Dilemma evolutionary game where the healthy cells are the cooperators and the cancer cells are the defectors. With point mutational dynamics, heredity, and a fitness landscape controlling birth and death rates, natural selection acts on the cell population and simulated 'cancer-like' features emerge, such as Gompertzian tumor growth driven by heterogeneity, the log-kill law which (linearly) relates therapeutic dose density to the (log) probability of cancer cell survival, and the Norton-Simon hypothesis which (linearly) relates tumor regression rates to tumor growth rates. We highlight the utility, clarity, and power that such models provide, despite (and because of) their simplicity and built-in assumptions.

Holistic computational structure screening of more than 12,000 candidates for solid lithium-ion conductor materials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sendek, Austin D.; Yang, Qian; Cubuk, Ekin D.; Duerloo, Karel-Alexander N.; Cui, Yi; Reed, Evan J.

We present a new type of large-scale computational screening approach for identifying promising candidate materials for solid state electrolytes for lithium ion batteries that is capable of screening all known lithium containing solids. To predict the likelihood of a candidate material exhibiting high lithium ion conductivity, we leverage machine learning techniques to train an ionic conductivity classification model using logistic regression based on experimental measurements reported in the literature. This model, which is built on easily calculable atomistic descriptors, provides new insight into the structure-property relationship for superionic behavior in solids and is approximately one million times faster to evaluate than DFT-based approaches to calculating diffusion coefficients or migration barriers. We couple this model with several other technologically motivated heuristics to reduce the list of candidate materials from the more than 12,000 known lithium containing solids to 21 structures that show promise as electrolytes, few of which have been examined experimentally. Our screening utilizes structures and electronic information contained in the Materials Project database. This work is supported by an Office of Technology Licensing Fellowship through the Stanford Graduate Fellowship Program and a seed Grant from the TomKat Center for Sustainable Energy at Stanford.

Using Google Trends and ambient temperature to predict seasonal influenza outbreaks.

PubMed

Zhang, Yuzhou; Bambrick, Hilary; Mengersen, Kerrie; Tong, Shilu; Hu, Wenbiao

2018-05-16

The discovery of the dynamics of seasonal and non-seasonal influenza outbreaks remains a great challenge. Previous internet-based surveillance studies built purely on internet or climate data do have potential error. We collected influenza notifications, temperature and Google Trends (GT) data between January 1st, 2011 and December 31st, 2016. We performed time-series cross correlation analysis and temporal risk analysis to discover the characteristics of influenza epidemics in the period. Then, the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model and regression tree model were developed to track influenza epidemics using GT and climate data. Influenza infection was significantly corrected with GT at lag of 1-7 weeks in Brisbane and Gold Coast, and temperature at lag of 1-10 weeks for the two study settings. SARIMA models with GT and temperature data had better predictive performance. We identified autoregression (AR) for influenza was the most important determinant for influenza occurrence in both Brisbane and Gold Coast. Our results suggested internet search metrics in conjunction with temperature can be used to predict influenza outbreaks, which can be considered as a pre-requisite for constructing early warning systems using search and temperature data. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Neural-fuzzy Thermal Error Compensation Controller on CNC Machining Center

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tseng, Pai-Chung; Chen, Shen-Len

The geometric errors and structural thermal deformation are factors that influence the machining accuracy of Computer Numerical Control (CNC) machining center. Therefore, researchers pay attention to thermal error compensation technologies on CNC machine tools. Some real-time error compensation techniques have been successfully demonstrated in both laboratories and industrial sites. The compensation results still need to be enhanced. In this research, the neural-fuzzy theory has been conducted to derive a thermal prediction model. An IC-type thermometer has been used to detect the heat sources temperature variation. The thermal drifts are online measured by a touch-triggered probe with a standard bar. A thermal prediction model is then derived by neural-fuzzy theory based on the temperature variation and the thermal drifts. A Graphic User Interface (GUI) system is also built to conduct the user friendly operation interface with Insprise C++ Builder. The experimental results show that the thermal prediction model developed by neural-fuzzy theory methodology can improve machining accuracy from 80µm to 3µm. Comparison with the multi-variable linear regression analysis the compensation accuracy is increased from ±10µm to ±3µm.

Machine Reading for Extraction of Bacteria and Habitat Taxonomies

PubMed Central

Kordjamshidi, Parisa; Massa, Wouter; Provoost, Thomas; Moens, Marie-Francine

2015-01-01

There is a vast amount of scientific literature available from various resources such as the internet. Automating the extraction of knowledge from these resources is very helpful for biologists to easily access this information. This paper presents a system to extract the bacteria and their habitats, as well as the relations between them. We investigate to what extent current techniques are suited for this task and test a variety of models in this regard. We detect entities in a biological text and map the habitats into a given taxonomy. Our model uses a linear chain Conditional Random Field (CRF). For the prediction of relations between the entities, a model based on logistic regression is built. Designing a system upon these techniques, we explore several improvements for both the generation and selection of good candidates. One contribution to this lies in the extended exibility of our ontology mapper that uses an advanced boundary detection and assigns the taxonomy elements to the detected habitats. Furthermore, we discover value in the combination of several distinct candidate generation rules. Using these techniques, we show results that are significantly improving upon the state of art for the BioNLP Bacteria Biotopes task. PMID:27077141

Antecedents of obesity - analysis, interpretation, and use of longitudinal data.

PubMed

Gillman, Matthew W; Kleinman, Ken

2007-07-01

The obesity epidemic causes misery and death. Most epidemiologists accept the hypothesis that characteristics of the early stages of human development have lifelong influences on obesity-related health outcomes. Unfortunately, there is a dearth of data of sufficient scope and individual history to help unravel the associations of prenatal, postnatal, and childhood factors with adult obesity and health outcomes. Here the authors discuss analytic methods, the interpretation of models, and the use to which such rare and valuable data may be put in developing interventions to combat the epidemic. For example, analytic methods such as quantile and multinomial logistic regression can describe the effects on body mass index range rather than just its mean; structural equation models may allow comparison of the contributions of different factors at different periods in the life course. Interpretation of the data and model construction is complex, and it requires careful consideration of the biologic plausibility and statistical interpretation of putative causal factors. The goals of discovering modifiable determinants of obesity during the prenatal, postnatal, and childhood periods must be kept in sight, and analyses should be built to facilitate them. Ultimately, interventions in these factors may help prevent obesity-related adverse health outcomes for future generations.

Complex regression Doppler optical coherence tomography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elahi, Sahar; Gu, Shi; Thrane, Lars; Rollins, Andrew M.; Jenkins, Michael W.

2018-04-01

We introduce a new method to measure Doppler shifts more accurately and extend the dynamic range of Doppler optical coherence tomography (OCT). The two-point estimate of the conventional Doppler method is replaced with a regression that is applied to high-density B-scans in polar coordinates. We built a high-speed OCT system using a 1.68-MHz Fourier domain mode locked laser to acquire high-density B-scans (16,000 A-lines) at high enough frame rates (˜100 fps) to accurately capture the dynamics of the beating embryonic heart. Flow phantom experiments confirm that the complex regression lowers the minimum detectable velocity from 12.25 mm / s to 374 μm / s, whereas the maximum velocity of 400 mm / s is measured without phase wrapping. Complex regression Doppler OCT also demonstrates higher accuracy and precision compared with the conventional method, particularly when signal-to-noise ratio is low. The extended dynamic range allows monitoring of blood flow over several stages of development in embryos without adjusting the imaging parameters. In addition, applying complex averaging recovers hidden features in structural images.

A conceptual prediction model for seasonal drought processes using atmospheric and oceanic standardized anomalies: application to regional drought processes in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Zhenchen; Lu, Guihua; He, Hai; Wu, Zhiyong; He, Jian

2018-01-01

Reliable drought prediction is fundamental for water resource managers to develop and implement drought mitigation measures. Considering that drought development is closely related to the spatial-temporal evolution of large-scale circulation patterns, we developed a conceptual prediction model of seasonal drought processes based on atmospheric and oceanic standardized anomalies (SAs). Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis is first applied to drought-related SAs at 200 and 500 hPa geopotential height (HGT) and sea surface temperature (SST). Subsequently, SA-based predictors are built based on the spatial pattern of the first EOF modes. This drought prediction model is essentially the synchronous statistical relationship between 90-day-accumulated atmospheric-oceanic SA-based predictors and SPI3 (3-month standardized precipitation index), calibrated using a simple stepwise regression method. Predictor computation is based on forecast atmospheric-oceanic products retrieved from the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2), indicating the lead time of the model depends on that of CFSv2. The model can make seamless drought predictions for operational use after a year-to-year calibration. Model application to four recent severe regional drought processes in China indicates its good performance in predicting seasonal drought development, despite its weakness in predicting drought severity. Overall, the model can be a worthy reference for seasonal water resource management in China.

Design an optimum safety policy for personnel safety management - A system dynamic approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balaji, P.

2014-10-01

Personnel safety management (PSM) ensures that employee's work conditions are healthy and safe by various proactive and reactive approaches. Nowadays it is a complex phenomenon because of increasing dynamic nature of organisations which results in an increase of accidents. An important part of accident prevention is to understand the existing system properly and make safety strategies for that system. System dynamics modelling appears to be an appropriate methodology to explore and make strategy for PSM. Many system dynamics models of industrial systems have been built entirely for specific host firms. This thesis illustrates an alternative approach. The generic system dynamics model of Personnel safety management was developed and tested in a host firm. The model was undergone various structural, behavioural and policy tests. The utility and effectiveness of model was further explored through modelling a safety scenario. In order to create effective safety policy under resource constraint, DOE (Design of experiment) was used. DOE uses classic designs, namely, fractional factorials and central composite designs. It used to make second order regression equation which serve as an objective function. That function was optimized under budget constraint and optimum value used for safety policy which shown greatest improvement in overall PSM. The outcome of this research indicates that personnel safety management model has the capability for acting as instruction tool to improve understanding of safety management and also as an aid to policy making.

Sufficient Dimension Reduction for Longitudinally Measured Predictors

PubMed Central

Pfeiffer, Ruth M.; Forzani, Liliana; Bura, Efstathia

2013-01-01

We propose a method to combine several predictors (markers) that are measured repeatedly over time into a composite marker score without assuming a model and only requiring a mild condition on the predictor distribution. Assuming that the first and second moments of the predictors can be decomposed into a time and a marker component via a Kronecker product structure, that accommodates the longitudinal nature of the predictors, we develop first moment sufficient dimension reduction techniques to replace the original markers with linear transformations that contain sufficient information for the regression of the predictors on the outcome. These linear combinations can then be combined into a score that has better predictive performance than the score built under a general model that ignores the longitudinal structure of the data. Our methods can be applied to either continuous or categorical outcome measures. In simulations we focus on binary outcomes and show that our method outperforms existing alternatives using the AUC, the area under the receiver-operator characteristics (ROC) curve, as a summary measure of the discriminatory ability of a single continuous diagnostic marker for binary disease outcomes. PMID:22161635

Prediction of Film Cooling Effectiveness on a Gas Turbine Blade Leading Edge Using ANN and CFD

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dávalos, J. O.; García, J. C.; Urquiza, G.; Huicochea, A.; De Santiago, O.

2018-05-01

In this work, the area-averaged film cooling effectiveness (AAFCE) on a gas turbine blade leading edge was predicted by employing an artificial neural network (ANN) using as input variables: hole diameter, injection angle, blowing ratio, hole and columns pitch. The database used to train the network was built using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) based on a two level full factorial design of experiments. The CFD numerical model was validated with an experimental rig, where a first stage blade of a gas turbine was represented by a cylindrical specimen. The ANN architecture was composed of three layers with four neurons in hidden layer and Levenberg-Marquardt was selected as ANN optimization algorithm. The AAFCE was successfully predicted by the ANN with a regression coefficient R2<0.99 and a root mean square error RMSE=0.0038. The ANN weight coefficients were used to estimate the relative importance of the input parameters. Blowing ratio was the most influential parameter with relative importance of 40.36 % followed by hole diameter. Additionally, by using the ANN model, the relationship between input parameters was analyzed.

[Study on application of SVM in prediction of coronary heart disease].

PubMed

Zhu, Yue; Wu, Jianghua; Fang, Ying

2013-12-01

Base on the data of blood pressure, plasma lipid, Glu and UA by physical test, Support Vector Machine (SVM) was applied to identify coronary heart disease (CHD) in patients and non-CHD individuals in south China population for guide of further prevention and treatment of the disease. Firstly, the SVM classifier was built using radial basis kernel function, liner kernel function and polynomial kernel function, respectively. Secondly, the SVM penalty factor C and kernel parameter sigma were optimized by particle swarm optimization (PSO) and then employed to diagnose and predict the CHD. By comparison with those from artificial neural network with the back propagation (BP) model, linear discriminant analysis, logistic regression method and non-optimized SVM, the overall results of our calculation demonstrated that the classification performance of optimized RBF-SVM model could be superior to other classifier algorithm with higher accuracy rate, sensitivity and specificity, which were 94.51%, 92.31% and 96.67%, respectively. So, it is well concluded that SVM could be used as a valid method for assisting diagnosis of CHD.

Quantitative Determination of Fluorine Content in Blends of Polylactide (PLA)–Talc Using Near Infrared Spectroscopy

PubMed Central

Tamburini, Elena; Tagliati, Chiara; Bonato, Tiziano; Costa, Stefania; Scapoli, Chiara; Pedrini, Paola

2016-01-01

Near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) has been widely used for quantitative and/or qualitative determination of a wide range of matrices. The objective of this study was to develop a NIRS method for the quantitative determination of fluorine content in polylactide (PLA)-talc blends. A blending profile was obtained by mixing different amounts of PLA granules and talc powder. The calibration model was built correlating wet chemical data (alkali digestion method) and NIR spectra. Using FT (Fourier Transform)-NIR technique, a Partial Least Squares (PLS) regression model was set-up, in a concentration interval of 0 ppm of pure PLA to 800 ppm of pure talc. Fluorine content prediction (R2cal = 0.9498; standard error of calibration, SEC = 34.77; standard error of cross-validation, SECV = 46.94) was then externally validated by means of a further 15 independent samples (R2EX.V = 0.8955; root mean standard error of prediction, RMSEP = 61.08). A positive relationship between an inorganic component as fluorine and NIR signal has been evidenced, and used to obtain quantitative analytical information from the spectra. PMID:27490548

Ranking malaria risk factors to guide malaria control efforts in African highlands.

PubMed

Protopopoff, Natacha; Van Bortel, Wim; Speybroeck, Niko; Van Geertruyden, Jean-Pierre; Baza, Dismas; D'Alessandro, Umberto; Coosemans, Marc

2009-11-25

Malaria is re-emerging in most of the African highlands exposing the non immune population to deadly epidemics. A better understanding of the factors impacting transmission in the highlands is crucial to improve well targeted malaria control strategies. A conceptual model of potential malaria risk factors in the highlands was built based on the available literature. Furthermore, the relative importance of these factors on malaria can be estimated through "classification and regression trees", an unexploited statistical method in the malaria field. This CART method was used to analyse the malaria risk factors in the Burundi highlands. The results showed that Anopheles density was the best predictor for high malaria prevalence. Then lower rainfall, no vector control, higher minimum temperature and houses near breeding sites were associated by order of importance to higher Anopheles density. In Burundi highlands monitoring Anopheles densities when rainfall is low may be able to predict epidemics. The conceptual model combined with the CART analysis is a decision support tool that could provide an important contribution toward the prevention and control of malaria by identifying major risk factors.

Approach of automatic 3D geological mapping: the case of the Kovdor phoscorite-carbonatite complex, NW Russia.

PubMed

Kalashnikov, A O; Ivanyuk, G Yu; Mikhailova, J A; Sokharev, V A

2017-07-31

We have developed an approach for automatic 3D geological mapping based on conversion of chemical composition of rocks to mineral composition by logical computation. It allows to calculate mineral composition based on bulk rock chemistry, interpolate the mineral composition in the same way as chemical composition, and, finally, build a 3D geological model. The approach was developed for the Kovdor phoscorite-carbonatite complex containing the Kovdor baddeleyite-apatite-magnetite deposit. We used 4 bulk rock chemistry analyses - Fe magn , P 2 O 5 , CO 2 and SiO 2 . We used four techniques for prediction of rock types - calculation of normative mineral compositions (norms), multiple regression, artificial neural network and developed by logical evaluation. The two latter became the best. As a result, we distinguished 14 types of phoscorites (forsterite-apatite-magnetite-carbonate rock), carbonatite and host rocks. The results show good convergence with our petrographical studies of the deposit, and recent manually built maps. The proposed approach can be used as a tool of a deposit genesis reconstruction and preliminary geometallurgical modelling.

Domain Selectivity in the Parahippocampal Gyrus Is Predicted by the Same Structural Connectivity Patterns in Blind and Sighted Individuals.

PubMed

Wang, Xiaoying; He, Chenxi; Peelen, Marius V; Zhong, Suyu; Gong, Gaolang; Caramazza, Alfonso; Bi, Yanchao

2017-05-03

Human ventral occipital temporal cortex contains clusters of neurons that show domain-preferring responses during visual perception. Recent studies have reported that some of these clusters show surprisingly similar domain selectivity in congenitally blind participants performing nonvisual tasks. An important open question is whether these functional similarities are driven by similar innate connections in blind and sighted groups. Here we addressed this question focusing on the parahippocampal gyrus (PHG), a region that is selective for large objects and scenes. Based on the assumption that patterns of long-range connectivity shape local computation, we examined whether domain selectivity in PHG is driven by similar structural connectivity patterns in the two populations. Multiple regression models were built to predict the selectivity of PHG voxels for large human-made objects from white matter (WM) connectivity patterns in both groups. These models were then tested using independent data from participants with similar visual experience (two sighted groups) and using data from participants with different visual experience (blind and sighted groups). Strikingly, the WM-based predictions between blind and sighted groups were as successful as predictions between two independent sighted groups. That is, the functional selectivity for large objects of a PHG voxel in a blind participant could be accurately predicted by its WM pattern using the connection-to-function model built from the sighted group data, and vice versa. Regions that significantly predicted PHG selectivity were located in temporal and frontal cortices in both sighted and blind populations. These results show that the large-scale network driving domain selectivity in PHG is independent of vision. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Recent studies have reported intriguingly similar domain selectivity in sighted and congenitally blind individuals in regions within the ventral visual cortex. To examine whether these similarities originate from similar innate connectional roots, we investigated whether the domain selectivity in one population could be predicted by the structural connectivity pattern of the other. We found that the selectivity for large objects of a PHG voxel in a blind participant could be predicted by its structural connectivity pattern using the connection-to-function model built from the sighted group data, and vice versa. These results reveal that the structural connectivity underlying domain selectivity in the PHG is independent of visual experience, providing evidence for nonvisual representations in this region. Copyright © 2017 the authors 0270-6474/17/374706-12$15.00/0.

Predicting and evaluation the severity in acute pancreatitis using a new modeling built on body mass index and intra-abdominal pressure.

PubMed

Fei, Yang; Gao, Kun; Tu, Jianfeng; Wang, Wei; Zong, Guang-Quan; Li, Wei-Qin

2017-06-03

Acute pancreatitis (AP) keeps as severe medical diagnosis and treatment problem. Early evaluation for severity and risk stratification in patients with AP is very important. Some scoring system such as acute physiology and chronic health evaluation-II (APACHE-II), the computed tomography severity index (CTSI), Ranson's score and the bedside index of severity of AP (BISAP) have been used, nevertheless, there're a few shortcomings in these methods. The aim of this study was to construct a new modeling including intra-abdominal pressure (IAP) and body mass index (BMI) to evaluate the severity in AP. The study comprised of two independent cohorts of patients with AP, one set was used to develop modeling from Jinling hospital in the period between January 2013 and October 2016, 1073 patients were included in it; another set was used to validate modeling from the 81st hospital in the period between January 2012 and December 2016, 326 patients were included in it. The association between risk factors and severity of AP were assessed by univariable analysis; multivariable modeling was explored through stepwise selection regression. The change in IAP and BMI were combined to generate a regression equation as the new modeling. Statistical indexes were used to evaluate the value of the prediction in the new modeling. Univariable analysis confirmed change in IAP and BMI to be significantly associated with severity of AP. The predict sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value and accuracy by the new modeling for severity of AP were 77.6%, 82.6%, 71.9%, 87.5% and 74.9% respectively in the developing dataset. There were significant differences between the new modeling and other scoring systems in these parameters (P < 0.05). In addition, a comparison of the area under receiver operating characteristic curves of them showed a statistically significant difference (P < 0.05). The same results could be found in the validating dataset. A new modeling based on IAP and BMI is more likely to predict the severity of AP. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Making sense of the noise: The effect of hydrology on silver carp eDNA detection in the Chicago area waterway system.

PubMed

Song, Jeffery W; Small, Mitchell J; Casman, Elizabeth A

2017-12-15

Environmental DNA (eDNA) sampling is an emerging tool for monitoring the spread of aquatic invasive species. One confounding factor when interpreting eDNA sampling evidence is that eDNA can be present in the water in the absence of living target organisms, originating from excreta, dead tissue, boats, or sewage effluent, etc. In the Chicago Area Waterway System (CAWS), electric fish dispersal barriers were built to prevent non-native Asian carp species from invading Lake Michigan, and yet Asian carp eDNA has been detected above the barriers sporadically since 2009. In this paper the influence of stream flow characteristics in the CAWS on the probability of invasive Asian carp eDNA detection in the CAWS from 2009 to 2012 was examined. In the CAWS, the direction of stream flow is mostly away from Lake Michigan, though there are infrequent reversals in flow direction towards Lake Michigan during dry spells. We find that the flow reversal volume into the Lake has a statistically significant positive relationship with eDNA detection probability, while other covariates, like gage height, precipitation, season, water temperature, dissolved oxygen concentration, pH and chlorophyll concentration do not. This suggests that stream flow direction is highly influential on eDNA detection in the CAWS and should be considered when interpreting eDNA evidence. We also find that the beta-binomial regression model provides a stronger fit for eDNA detection probability compared to a binomial regression model. This paper provides a statistical modeling framework for interpreting eDNA sampling evidence and for evaluating covariates influencing eDNA detection. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Plate versus bulk trolley food service in a hospital: comparison of patients' satisfaction.

PubMed

Hartwell, Heather J; Edwards, John S A; Beavis, John

2007-03-01

The aim of this research was to compare plate with bulk trolley food service in hospitals in terms of patient satisfaction. Key factors distinguishing satisfaction with each system would also be identified. A consumer opinion card (n = 180), concentrating on the quality indicators of core foods, was used to measure patient satisfaction and compare two systems of delivery, plate and trolley. Binary logistic regression analysis was used to build a model that would predict food service style on the basis of the food attributes measured. Further investigation used multinomial logistic regression to predict opinion for the assessment of each food attribute within food service style. Results showed that the bulk trolley method of food distribution enables all foods to have a more acceptable texture, and for some foods (potato, P = 0.007; poached fish, P = 0.001; and minced beef, P < or = 0.0005) temperature, and for other foods (broccoli, P < or = 0.0005; carrots, P < or = 0.0005; and poached fish, P = 0.001) flavor, than the plate system of delivery, where flavor is associated with bad opinion or dissatisfaction. A model was built indicating patient satisfaction with the two service systems. This research confirms that patient satisfaction is enhanced by choice at the point of consumption (trolley system); however, portion size was not the controlling dimension. Temperature and texture were the most important attributes that measure patient satisfaction with food, thus defining the focus for hospital food service managers. To date, a model predicting patient satisfaction with the quality of food as served has not been proposed, and as such this work adds to the body of knowledge in this field. This report brings new information about the service style of dishes for improving the quality of food and thus enhancing patient satisfaction.

Assessing the influence of land use land cover pattern, socio economic factors and air quality status to predict morbidity on the basis of logistic based regression model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dixit, A.; Singh, V. K.

2017-12-01

Recent studies conducted by World Health Organisation (WHO) estimated that 92 % of the total world population are living in places where the air quality level has exceeded the WHO standard limit for air quality. This is due to the change in Land Use Land Cover (LULC) pattern, socio economic drivers and anthropogenic heat emission caused by manmade activity. Thereby, many prevalent human respiratory diseases such as lung cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and emphysema have increased in recent times. In this study, a quantitative relationship is developed between land use (built-up land, water bodies, and vegetation), socio economic drivers and air quality parameters using logistic based regression model over 7 different cities of India for the winter season of 2012 to 2016. Different LULC, socio economic, industrial emission sources, meteorological condition and air quality level from the monitoring stations are taken to estimate the influence on morbidity of each city. Results of correlation are analyzed between land use variables and monthly concentration of pollutants. These values range from 0.63 to 0.76. Similarly, the correlation value between land use variable with socio economic and morbidity ranges from 0.57 to 0.73. The performance of model is improved from 67 % to 79 % in estimating morbidity for the year 2015 and 2016 due to the better availability of observed data.The study highlights the growing importance of incorporating socio-economic drivers with air quality data for evaluating morbidity rate for each city in comparison to just change in quantitative analysis of air quality.

Evaluating turbidity and suspended-sediment concentration relations from the North Fork Toutle River basin near Mount St. Helens, Washington; annual, seasonal, event, and particle size variations - a preliminary analysis.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Uhrich, Mark A.; Spicer, Kurt R.; Mosbrucker, Adam; Christianson, Tami

2015-01-01

Regression of in-stream turbidity with concurrent sample-based suspended-sediment concentration (SSC) has become an accepted method for producing unit-value time series of inferred SSC (Rasmussen et al., 2009). Turbidity-SSC regression models are increasingly used to generate suspended-sediment records for Pacific Northwest rivers (e.g., Curran et al., 2014; Schenk and Bragg, 2014; Uhrich and Bragg, 2003). Recent work developing turbidity-SSC models for the North Fork Toutle River in Southwest Washington (Uhrich et al., 2014), as well as other studies (Landers and Sturm, 2013, Merten et al., 2014), suggests that models derived from annual or greater datasets may not adequately reflect shorter term changes in turbidity-SSC relations, warranting closer inspection of such relations. In-stream turbidity measurements and suspended-sediment samples have been collected from the North Fork Toutle River since 2010. The study site, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamgage 14240525 near Kid Valley, Washington, is 13 river km downstream of the debris avalanche emplaced by the 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens (Lipman and Mullineaux, 1981), and 2 river km downstream of the large sediment retention structure (SRS) built from 1987–1989 to mitigate the associated sediment hazard. The debris avalanche extends roughly 25 km down valley from the edifice of the volcano and is the primary source of suspended sediment moving past the streamgage (NF Toutle-SRS). Other significant sources are debris flow events and sand deposits upstream of the SRS, which are periodically remobilized and transported downstream. Also, finer material often is derived from the clay-rich original debris avalanche deposit, while coarser material can derive from areas such as fluvially reworked terraces.

The built environment moderates effects of family-based childhood obesity treatment over 2 years.

PubMed

Epstein, Leonard H; Raja, Samina; Daniel, Tinuke Oluyomi; Paluch, Rocco A; Wilfley, Denise E; Saelens, Brian E; Roemmich, James N

2012-10-01

Research suggests the neighborhood built environment is related to child physical activity and eating. The purpose of this study was to determine if characteristics of the neighborhood environment moderate the relationship between obesity treatment and weight loss, and if outcomes of particular treatments are moderated by built environment characteristics. The relationship between the built environment and standardized BMI (zBMI) changes for 191 8-12-year-old children who participated in one of four randomized, controlled trials of pediatric weight management was assessed using mixed models analysis of covariance. At 2-year follow-up, greater parkland, fewer convenience stores, and fewer supermarkets were associated with greater zBMI reduction across all interventions. No treatments interacted with characteristics of the built environment. Activity- and eating-related built neighborhood characteristics are associated with child success in behavioral obesity treatments. Efficacy may be improved by individualizing treatments based on built environment characteristics.

Classifying Vessels Operating in the South China Sea by Origin with the Automatic Identification System

DTIC Science & Technology

2018-03-01

operating vessel’s origin, by country and geographical region. Two types of models are built. The first model captures the naturally dependent nature of AIS... dependency between AIS signals in order to characterize maritime patterns of behavior by country and region. With relative accuracy, both types of...of models are built. The first model captures the naturally dependent nature of AIS signals and serves as a proof of concept for how well a global

Development and Validation of a Prototype Vacuum Sensing Unit for the DD2011 Chairside Amalgam Separators

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-10-30

pressure values onto the SD card. The addition of free and open-source Arduino libraries allowed for the seamless integration of the shield into the...alert the user when replacing the separator is necessary. Methods: A sensor was built to measure and record differential pressure values within the...from the transducers during simulated blockages were transformed into pressure values using linear regression equations from the calibration data

The use of geographic information system and 1860s cadastral data to model agricultural suitability before heavy mechanization. A case study from Malta.

PubMed

Alberti, Gianmarco; Grima, Reuben; Vella, Nicholas C

2018-01-01

The present study seeks to understand the determinants of land agricultural suitability in Malta before heavy mechanization. A GIS-based Logistic Regression model is built on the basis of the data from mid-1800s cadastral maps (cabreo). This is the first time that such data are being used for the purpose of building a predictive model. The maps record the agricultural quality of parcels (ranging from good to lowest), which is represented by different colours. The study treats the agricultural quality as a depended variable with two levels: optimal (corresponding to the good class) vs. non-optimal quality (mediocre, bad, low, and lowest classes). Seventeen predictors are isolated on the basis of literature review and data availability. Logistic Regression is used to isolate the predictors that can be considered determinants of the agricultural quality. Our model has an optimal discriminatory power (AUC: 0.92). The positive effect on land agricultural quality of the following predictors is considered and discussed: sine of the aspect (odds ratio 1.42), coast distance (2.46), Brown Rendzinas (2.31), Carbonate Raw (2.62) and Xerorendzinas (9.23) soils, distance to minor roads (4.88). Predictors resulting having a negative effect are: terrain elevation (0.96), slope (0.97), distance to the nearest geological fault lines (0.09), Terra Rossa soil (0.46), distance to secondary roads (0.19) and footpaths (0.41). The model isolates a host of topographic and cultural variables, the latter related to human mobility and landscape accessibility, which differentially contributed to the agricultural suitability, providing the bases for the creation of the fragmented and extremely variegated agricultural landscape that is the hallmark of the Maltese Islands. Our findings are also useful to suggest new questions that may be posed to the more meagre evidence from earlier periods.

[Dehydration and malnutrition as two independent risk factors of death in a Senegalese pediatric hospital].

PubMed

Sylla, A; Guéye, M; Keita, Y; Seck, N; Seck, A; Mbow, F; Ndiaye, O; Diouf, S; Sall, M G

2015-03-01

Inpatient mortality is an indicator of the quality of care. We analyzed the mortality of under 5-year-old hospitalized children in the pediatric ward of Aristide Le Dantec Hospital for updating our data 10 years after our first study. We analyzed the data of the children hospitalized between 1 January and 31 December 2012. For each child, we collected anthropometric measurements converted to a z-score related to World Health Organization growth data. Logistic regression-generating models built separately with different anthropometric parameters were used to assess the risk of mortality according to children's characteristics. Data from 393 children were included. The overall mortality rate was 10% (39/393). Using logistic regression, the risk factors associated with death were severe wasting (odds ratio [OR]=8.27; 95% confidence interval [95% CI]) [3.79-18], male gender (OR=2.98; 95% CI [1.25-7.1]), dehydration (OR=5.4; 95% CI [2.54-13.43]) in the model using the weight-for-height z-score; male gender (OR=2.5; 95% CI [1.11-5.63]), dehydration (OR=8.43; 95% CI [3.83-18.5]) in the model using the height-for-age z-score; male gender (OR=2.7; 95% CI [1.19-6.24]), dehydration (OR=7.5; 95% CI [3.39-16.76]), severe deficit in the weight-for-age z-score (OR=2.4; 95% CI [1.11-5.63]) in the model using the weight-for-age z-score; and male gender (OR=2.5; 95% CI [1.11-5.63]) and dehydration (OR=8.43; 94% CI [3.83-18.5]) in the last model with mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC). Dehydration and malnutrition were two independent risk factors of death. The protocols addressing dehydration and malnutrition management should be audited and performed systematically for each child's anthropometric measurements at admission. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Prevalence and Characteristics of Bed-Sharing Among Black and White Infants in Georgia.

PubMed

Salm Ward, Trina C; Robb, Sara Wagner; Kanu, Florence A

2016-02-01

To examine: (1) the prevalence and characteristics of bed-sharing among non-Hispanic Black and White infants in Georgia, and (2) differences in bed-sharing and sleep position behaviors prior to and after the American Academy of Pediatrics' 2005 recommendations against bed-sharing. Georgia Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System (PRAMS) data were obtained from the Georgia Department of Public Health. Analysis was guided by the socioecological model levels of: Infant, Maternal, Family, and Community/Society within the context of race. Data from 2004 to 2011 were analyzed to address the first objective and from 2000 to 2004 and 2006 to 2011 to address the second objective. Rao-Scott Chi square tests and backward selection unconditional logistic regression models for weighted data were built separately by race; odds ratios (OR) and 95 % Confidence Intervals (CIs) were calculated. A total of 6595 (3528 Black and 3067 White) cases were analyzed between 2004 and 2011. Significantly more Black mothers (81.9 %) reported "ever" bed-sharing compared to White mothers (56 %), p < 0.001. Logistic regression results indicated that the most parsimonious model included variables from all socioecological levels. For Blacks, the final model included infant age, pregnancy intention, number of dependents, and use of Women, Infant and Children (WIC) Services. For Whites, the final model included infant age, maternal age, financial stress, partner-related stress, and WIC. When comparing the period 2000-2004 to 2006-2011, a total of 10,015 (5373 Black and 4642 White cases) were analyzed. A significant decrease in bedsharing was found for both Blacks and Whites; rates of non-supine sleep position decreased significantly for Blacks but not Whites. Continued high rates of bed-sharing and non-supine sleep position for both Blacks and Whites demonstrate an ongoing need for safe infant sleep messaging. Risk profiles for Black and White mothers differed, suggesting the importance of tailored messaging. Specific research and practice implications are identified and described.

The use of geographic information system and 1860s cadastral data to model agricultural suitability before heavy mechanization. A case study from Malta

PubMed Central

Grima, Reuben; Vella, Nicholas C.

2018-01-01

The present study seeks to understand the determinants of land agricultural suitability in Malta before heavy mechanization. A GIS-based Logistic Regression model is built on the basis of the data from mid-1800s cadastral maps (cabreo). This is the first time that such data are being used for the purpose of building a predictive model. The maps record the agricultural quality of parcels (ranging from good to lowest), which is represented by different colours. The study treats the agricultural quality as a depended variable with two levels: optimal (corresponding to the good class) vs. non-optimal quality (mediocre, bad, low, and lowest classes). Seventeen predictors are isolated on the basis of literature review and data availability. Logistic Regression is used to isolate the predictors that can be considered determinants of the agricultural quality. Our model has an optimal discriminatory power (AUC: 0.92). The positive effect on land agricultural quality of the following predictors is considered and discussed: sine of the aspect (odds ratio 1.42), coast distance (2.46), Brown Rendzinas (2.31), Carbonate Raw (2.62) and Xerorendzinas (9.23) soils, distance to minor roads (4.88). Predictors resulting having a negative effect are: terrain elevation (0.96), slope (0.97), distance to the nearest geological fault lines (0.09), Terra Rossa soil (0.46), distance to secondary roads (0.19) and footpaths (0.41). The model isolates a host of topographic and cultural variables, the latter related to human mobility and landscape accessibility, which differentially contributed to the agricultural suitability, providing the bases for the creation of the fragmented and extremely variegated agricultural landscape that is the hallmark of the Maltese Islands. Our findings are also useful to suggest new questions that may be posed to the more meagre evidence from earlier periods. PMID:29415059

Interactive and independent associations between the socioeconomic and objective built environment on the neighbourhood level and individual health: a systematic review of multilevel studies.

PubMed

Schüle, Steffen Andreas; Bolte, Gabriele

2015-01-01

The research question how contextual factors of neighbourhood environments influence individual health has gained increasing attention in public health research. Both socioeconomic neighbourhood characteristics and factors of the built environment play an important role for health and health-related behaviours. However, their reciprocal relationships have not been systematically reviewed so far. This systematic review aims to identify studies applying a multilevel modelling approach which consider both neighbourhood socioeconomic position (SEP) and factors of the objective built environment simultaneously in order to disentangle their independent and interactive effects on individual health. The three databases PubMed, PsycINFO, and Web of Science were systematically searched with terms for title and abstract screening. Grey literature was not included. Observational studies from USA, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and Western European countries were considered which analysed simultaneously factors of neighbourhood SEP and the objective built environment with a multilevel modelling approach. Adjustment for individual SEP was a further inclusion criterion. Thirty-three studies were included in qualitative synthesis. Twenty-two studies showed an independent association between characteristics of neighbourhood SEP or the built environment and individual health outcomes or health-related behaviours. Twenty-one studies found cross-level or within-level interactions either between neighbourhood SEP and the built environment, or between neighbourhood SEP or the built environment and individual characteristics, such as sex, individual SEP or ethnicity. Due to the large variation of study design and heterogeneous reporting of results the identification of consistent findings was problematic and made quantitative analysis not possible. There is a need for studies considering multiple neighbourhood dimensions and applying multilevel modelling in order to clarify their causal relationship towards individual health. Especially, more studies using comparable characteristics of neighbourhood SEP and the objective built environment and analysing interactive effects are necessary to disentangle health impacts and identify vulnerable neighbourhoods and population groups.

Interactive and Independent Associations between the Socioeconomic and Objective Built Environment on the Neighbourhood Level and Individual Health: A Systematic Review of Multilevel Studies

PubMed Central

Schüle, Steffen Andreas; Bolte, Gabriele

2015-01-01

Background The research question how contextual factors of neighbourhood environments influence individual health has gained increasing attention in public health research. Both socioeconomic neighbourhood characteristics and factors of the built environment play an important role for health and health-related behaviours. However, their reciprocal relationships have not been systematically reviewed so far. This systematic review aims to identify studies applying a multilevel modelling approach which consider both neighbourhood socioeconomic position (SEP) and factors of the objective built environment simultaneously in order to disentangle their independent and interactive effects on individual health. Methods The three databases PubMed, PsycINFO, and Web of Science were systematically searched with terms for title and abstract screening. Grey literature was not included. Observational studies from USA, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and Western European countries were considered which analysed simultaneously factors of neighbourhood SEP and the objective built environment with a multilevel modelling approach. Adjustment for individual SEP was a further inclusion criterion. Results Thirty-three studies were included in qualitative synthesis. Twenty-two studies showed an independent association between characteristics of neighbourhood SEP or the built environment and individual health outcomes or health-related behaviours. Twenty-one studies found cross-level or within-level interactions either between neighbourhood SEP and the built environment, or between neighbourhood SEP or the built environment and individual characteristics, such as sex, individual SEP or ethnicity. Due to the large variation of study design and heterogeneous reporting of results the identification of consistent findings was problematic and made quantitative analysis not possible. Conclusions There is a need for studies considering multiple neighbourhood dimensions and applying multilevel modelling in order to clarify their causal relationship towards individual health. Especially, more studies using comparable characteristics of neighbourhood SEP and the objective built environment and analysing interactive effects are necessary to disentangle health impacts and identify vulnerable neighbourhoods and population groups. PMID:25849569

NiftyNet: a deep-learning platform for medical imaging.

PubMed

Gibson, Eli; Li, Wenqi; Sudre, Carole; Fidon, Lucas; Shakir, Dzhoshkun I; Wang, Guotai; Eaton-Rosen, Zach; Gray, Robert; Doel, Tom; Hu, Yipeng; Whyntie, Tom; Nachev, Parashkev; Modat, Marc; Barratt, Dean C; Ourselin, Sébastien; Cardoso, M Jorge; Vercauteren, Tom

2018-05-01

Medical image analysis and computer-assisted intervention problems are increasingly being addressed with deep-learning-based solutions. Established deep-learning platforms are flexible but do not provide specific functionality for medical image analysis and adapting them for this domain of application requires substantial implementation effort. Consequently, there has been substantial duplication of effort and incompatible infrastructure developed across many research groups. This work presents the open-source NiftyNet platform for deep learning in medical imaging. The ambition of NiftyNet is to accelerate and simplify the development of these solutions, and to provide a common mechanism for disseminating research outputs for the community to use, adapt and build upon. The NiftyNet infrastructure provides a modular deep-learning pipeline for a range of medical imaging applications including segmentation, regression, image generation and representation learning applications. Components of the NiftyNet pipeline including data loading, data augmentation, network architectures, loss functions and evaluation metrics are tailored to, and take advantage of, the idiosyncracies of medical image analysis and computer-assisted intervention. NiftyNet is built on the TensorFlow framework and supports features such as TensorBoard visualization of 2D and 3D images and computational graphs by default. We present three illustrative medical image analysis applications built using NiftyNet infrastructure: (1) segmentation of multiple abdominal organs from computed tomography; (2) image regression to predict computed tomography attenuation maps from brain magnetic resonance images; and (3) generation of simulated ultrasound images for specified anatomical poses. The NiftyNet infrastructure enables researchers to rapidly develop and distribute deep learning solutions for segmentation, regression, image generation and representation learning applications, or extend the platform to new applications. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A comparative research of different ensemble surrogate models based on set pair analysis for the DNAPL-contaminated aquifer remediation strategy optimization.

PubMed

Hou, Zeyu; Lu, Wenxi; Xue, Haibo; Lin, Jin

2017-08-01

Surrogate-based simulation-optimization technique is an effective approach for optimizing the surfactant enhanced aquifer remediation (SEAR) strategy for clearing DNAPLs. The performance of the surrogate model, which is used to replace the simulation model for the aim of reducing computation burden, is the key of corresponding researches. However, previous researches are generally based on a stand-alone surrogate model, and rarely make efforts to improve the approximation accuracy of the surrogate model to the simulation model sufficiently by combining various methods. In this regard, we present set pair analysis (SPA) as a new method to build ensemble surrogate (ES) model, and conducted a comparative research to select a better ES modeling pattern for the SEAR strategy optimization problems. Surrogate models were developed using radial basis function artificial neural network (RBFANN), support vector regression (SVR), and Kriging. One ES model is assembling RBFANN model, SVR model, and Kriging model using set pair weights according their performance, and the other is assembling several Kriging (the best surrogate modeling method of three) models built with different training sample datasets. Finally, an optimization model, in which the ES model was embedded, was established to obtain the optimal remediation strategy. The results showed the residuals of the outputs between the best ES model and simulation model for 100 testing samples were lower than 1.5%. Using an ES model instead of the simulation model was critical for considerably reducing the computation time of simulation-optimization process and maintaining high computation accuracy simultaneously. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Updating a synchronous fluorescence spectroscopic virgin olive oil adulteration calibration to a new geographical region.

PubMed

Kunz, Matthew Ross; Ottaway, Joshua; Kalivas, John H; Georgiou, Constantinos A; Mousdis, George A

2011-02-23

Detecting and quantifying extra virgin olive adulteration is of great importance to the olive oil industry. Many spectroscopic methods in conjunction with multivariate analysis have been used to solve these issues. However, successes to date are limited as calibration models are built to a specific set of geographical regions, growing seasons, cultivars, and oil extraction methods (the composite primary condition). Samples from new geographical regions, growing seasons, etc. (secondary conditions) are not always correctly predicted by the primary model due to different olive oil and/or adulterant compositions stemming from secondary conditions not matching the primary conditions. Three Tikhonov regularization (TR) variants are used in this paper to allow adulterant (sunflower oil) concentration predictions in samples from geographical regions not part of the original primary calibration domain. Of the three TR variants, ridge regression with an additional 2-norm penalty provides the smallest validation sample prediction errors. Although the paper reports on using TR for model updating to predict adulterant oil concentration, the methods should also be applicable to updating models distinguishing adulterated samples from pure extra virgin olive oil. Additionally, the approaches are general and can be used with other spectroscopic methods and adulterants as well as with other agriculture products.

Characterizing Particulate Matter Exfiltration Estimates for Alternative Cookstoves in a Village-Like Household in Rural Nepal.

PubMed

Soneja, Sutyajeet I; Tielsch, James M; Khatry, Subarna K; Zaitchik, Benjamin; Curriero, Frank C; Breysse, Patrick N

2017-11-01

Alternative stoves are an intervention option to reduce household air pollution. The amount of air pollution exiting homes when alternative stoves are utilized is not known. In this paper, particulate matter exfiltration estimates are presented for four types of alternative stoves within a village-like home, which was built to reflect the use of local materials and common size, in rural Nepal. Four alternative stoves with chimneys were examined, which included an alternative mud brick stove, original Envirofit G3355 model, manufacture altered Envirofit G3355, and locally altered Envirofit G3355. Multiple linear regression was utilized to determine estimates of PM2.5 exfiltration. Overall exfiltration fraction average (converted to a percent) for the four stoves were: alternative mud brick stove with chimney 56%, original Envirofit G3355 model with chimney 87%, manufacture altered Envirofit G3355 model with chimney 69%, and locally altered Envirofit G3355 model with chimney 69%. Alternative cookstoves resulted in higher overall average exfiltration due to direct and indirect ventilation relative to traditional, mud-based stoves. This contrast emphasizes the need for an improved understanding of the climate and health implications that are believed to come from implementing alternative stoves on a large scale and the resultant shift of exposure burden from indoors to outdoors.

Molecular electronegativity distance vector model for the prediction of bioconcentration factors in fish.

PubMed

Liu, Shu-Shen; Qin, Li-Tang; Liu, Hai-Ling; Yin, Da-Qiang

2008-02-01

Molecular electronegativity distance vector (MEDV) derived directly from the molecular topological structures was used to describe the structures of 122 nonionic organic compounds (NOCs) and a quantitative relationship between the MEDV descriptors and the bioconcentration factors (BCF) of NOCs in fish was developed using the variable selection and modeling based on prediction (VSMP). It was found that some main structural factors influencing the BCFs of NOCs are the substructures expressed by four atomic types of nos. 2, 3, 5, and 13, i.e., atom groups -CH(2)- or =CH-, -CH< or =C<, -NH(2), and -Cl or -Br where the former two groups exist in the molecular skeleton of NOC and the latter three groups are related closely to the substituting groups on a benzene ring. The best 5-variable model, with the correlation coefficient (r(2)) of 0.9500 and the leave-one-out cross-validation correlation coefficient (q(2)) of 0.9428, was built by multiple linear regressions, which shows a good estimation ability and stability. A predictive power for the external samples was tested by the model from the training set of 80 NOCs and the predictive correlation coefficient (u(2)) for the 42 external samples in the test set was 0.9028.

Forecasting the future risk of Barmah Forest virus disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia.

PubMed

Naish, Suchithra; Mengersen, Kerrie; Hu, Wenbiao; Tong, Shilu

2013-01-01

Mosquito-borne diseases are climate sensitive and there has been increasing concern over the impact of climate change on future disease risk. This paper projected the potential future risk of Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia. We obtained data on notified BFV cases, climate (maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall), socio-economic and tidal conditions for current period 2000-2008 for coastal regions in Queensland. Grid-data on future climate projections for 2025, 2050 and 2100 were also obtained. Logistic regression models were built to forecast the otential risk of BFV disease distribution under existing climatic, socio-economic and tidal conditions. The model was applied to estimate the potential geographic distribution of BFV outbreaks under climate change scenarios. The predictive model had good model accuracy, sensitivity and specificity. Maps on potential risk of future BFV disease indicated that disease would vary significantly across coastal regions in Queensland by 2100 due to marked differences in future rainfall and temperature projections. We conclude that the results of this study demonstrate that the future risk of BFV disease would vary across coastal regions in Queensland. These results may be helpful for public health decision making towards developing effective risk management strategies for BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland.

Characterizing Particulate Matter Exfiltration Estimates for Alternative Cookstoves in a Village-Like Household in Rural Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soneja, Sutyajeet I.; Tielsch, James M.; Khatry, Subarna K.; Zaitchik, Benjamin; Curriero, Frank C.; Breysse, Patrick N.

2017-11-01

Alternative stoves are an intervention option to reduce household air pollution. The amount of air pollution exiting homes when alternative stoves are utilized is not known. In this paper, particulate matter exfiltration estimates are presented for four types of alternative stoves within a village-like home, which was built to reflect the use of local materials and common size, in rural Nepal. Four alternative stoves with chimneys were examined, which included an alternative mud brick stove, original Envirofit G3355 model, manufacture altered Envirofit G3355, and locally altered Envirofit G3355. Multiple linear regression was utilized to determine estimates of PM2.5 exfiltration. Overall exfiltration fraction average (converted to a percent) for the four stoves were: alternative mud brick stove with chimney 56%, original Envirofit G3355 model with chimney 87%, manufacture altered Envirofit G3355 model with chimney 69%, and locally altered Envirofit G3355 model with chimney 69%. Alternative cookstoves resulted in higher overall average exfiltration due to direct and indirect ventilation relative to traditional, mud-based stoves. This contrast emphasizes the need for an improved understanding of the climate and health implications that are believed to come from implementing alternative stoves on a large scale and the resultant shift of exposure burden from indoors to outdoors.

Toward better public health reporting using existing off the shelf approaches: The value of medical dictionaries in automated cancer detection using plaintext medical data.

PubMed

Kasthurirathne, Suranga N; Dixon, Brian E; Gichoya, Judy; Xu, Huiping; Xia, Yuni; Mamlin, Burke; Grannis, Shaun J

2017-05-01

Existing approaches to derive decision models from plaintext clinical data frequently depend on medical dictionaries as the sources of potential features. Prior research suggests that decision models developed using non-dictionary based feature sourcing approaches and "off the shelf" tools could predict cancer with performance metrics between 80% and 90%. We sought to compare non-dictionary based models to models built using features derived from medical dictionaries. We evaluated the detection of cancer cases from free text pathology reports using decision models built with combinations of dictionary or non-dictionary based feature sourcing approaches, 4 feature subset sizes, and 5 classification algorithms. Each decision model was evaluated using the following performance metrics: sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, positive predictive value, and area under the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve. Decision models parameterized using dictionary and non-dictionary feature sourcing approaches produced performance metrics between 70 and 90%. The source of features and feature subset size had no impact on the performance of a decision model. Our study suggests there is little value in leveraging medical dictionaries for extracting features for decision model building. Decision models built using features extracted from the plaintext reports themselves achieve comparable results to those built using medical dictionaries. Overall, this suggests that existing "off the shelf" approaches can be leveraged to perform accurate cancer detection using less complex Named Entity Recognition (NER) based feature extraction, automated feature selection and modeling approaches. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of the "e-rater"® Scoring Engine for the "TOEFL"® Independent and Integrated Prompts. Research Report. ETS RR-12-06

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ramineni, Chaitanya; Trapani, Catherine S.; Williamson, David M.; Davey, Tim; Bridgeman, Brent

2012-01-01

Scoring models for the "e-rater"® system were built and evaluated for the "TOEFL"® exam's independent and integrated writing prompts. Prompt-specific and generic scoring models were built, and evaluation statistics, such as weighted kappas, Pearson correlations, standardized differences in mean scores, and correlations with…

Evaluation of the "e-rater"® Scoring Engine for the "GRE"® Issue and Argument Prompts. Research Report. ETS RR-12-02

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ramineni, Chaitanya; Trapani, Catherine S.; Williamson, David M.; Davey, Tim; Bridgeman, Brent

2012-01-01

Automated scoring models for the "e-rater"® scoring engine were built and evaluated for the "GRE"® argument and issue-writing tasks. Prompt-specific, generic, and generic with prompt-specific intercept scoring models were built and evaluation statistics such as weighted kappas, Pearson correlations, standardized difference in…

Active Travel by Built Environment and Lifecycle Stage: Case Study of Osaka Metropolitan Area

PubMed Central

Waygood, E. Owen D.; Sun, Yilin; Letarte, Laurence

2015-01-01

Active travel can contribute to physical activity achieved over a day. Previous studies have examined active travel associated with trips in various western countries, but few studies have examined this question for the Asian context. Japan has high levels of cycling, walking and public transport, similar to The Netherlands. Most studies have focused either on children or on adults separately, however, having children in a household will change the travel needs and wants of that household. Thus, here a household lifecycle stage approach is applied. Further, unlike many previous studies, the active travel related to public transport is included. Lastly, further to examining whether the built environment has an influence on the accumulation of active travel minutes, a binary logistic regression examines the built environment’s influence on the World Health Organization’s recommendations of physical activity. The findings suggest that there is a clear distinction between the urbanized centers and the surrounding towns and unurbanized areas. Further, active travel related to public transport trips is larger than pure walking trips. Females and children are more likely to achieve the WHO recommendations. Finally, car ownership is a strong negative influence. PMID:26694429

Active Travel by Built Environment and Lifecycle Stage: Case Study of Osaka Metropolitan Area.

PubMed

Waygood, E Owen D; Sun, Yilin; Letarte, Laurence

2015-12-15

Active travel can contribute to physical activity achieved over a day. Previous studies have examined active travel associated with trips in various western countries, but few studies have examined this question for the Asian context. Japan has high levels of cycling, walking and public transport, similar to The Netherlands. Most studies have focused either on children or on adults separately, however, having children in a household will change the travel needs and wants of that household. Thus, here a household lifecycle stage approach is applied. Further, unlike many previous studies, the active travel related to public transport is included. Lastly, further to examining whether the built environment has an influence on the accumulation of active travel minutes, a binary logistic regression examines the built environment's influence on the World Health Organization's recommendations of physical activity. The findings suggest that there is a clear distinction between the urbanized centers and the surrounding towns and unurbanized areas. Further, active travel related to public transport trips is larger than pure walking trips. Females and children are more likely to achieve the WHO recommendations. Finally, car ownership is a strong negative influence.

Probabilistic empirical prediction of seasonal climate: evaluation and potential applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dieppois, B.; Eden, J.; van Oldenborgh, G. J.

2017-12-01

Preparing for episodes with risks of anomalous weather a month to a year ahead is an important challenge for governments, non-governmental organisations, and private companies and is dependent on the availability of reliable forecasts. The majority of operational seasonal forecasts are made using process-based dynamical models, which are complex, computationally challenging and prone to biases. Empirical forecast approaches built on statistical models to represent physical processes offer an alternative to dynamical systems and can provide either a benchmark for comparison or independent supplementary forecasts. Here, we present a new evaluation of an established empirical system used to predict seasonal climate across the globe. Forecasts for surface air temperature, precipitation and sea level pressure are produced by the KNMI Probabilistic Empirical Prediction (K-PREP) system every month and disseminated via the KNMI Climate Explorer (climexp.knmi.nl). K-PREP is based on multiple linear regression and built on physical principles to the fullest extent with predictive information taken from the global CO2-equivalent concentration, large-scale modes of variability in the climate system and regional-scale information. K-PREP seasonal forecasts for the period 1981-2016 will be compared with corresponding dynamically generated forecasts produced by operational forecast systems. While there are many regions of the world where empirical forecast skill is extremely limited, several areas are identified where K-PREP offers comparable skill to dynamical systems. We discuss two key points in the future development and application of the K-PREP system: (a) the potential for K-PREP to provide a more useful basis for reference forecasts than those based on persistence or climatology, and (b) the added value of including K-PREP forecast information in multi-model forecast products, at least for known regions of good skill. We also discuss the potential development of stakeholder-driven applications of the K-PREP system, including empirical forecasts for circumboreal fire activity.

Inflammatory bowel disease and patterns of volatile organic compounds in the exhaled breath of children: A case-control study using Ion Molecule Reaction-Mass Spectrometry.

PubMed

Monasta, Lorenzo; Pierobon, Chiara; Princivalle, Andrea; Martelossi, Stefano; Marcuzzi, Annalisa; Pasini, Francesco; Perbellini, Luigi

2017-01-01

Inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD) profoundly affect quality of life and have been gradually increasing in incidence, prevalence and severity in many areas of the world, and in children in particular. Patients with suspected IBD require careful history and clinical examination, while definitive diagnosis relies on endoscopic and histological findings. The aim of the present study was to investigate whether the alveolar air of pediatric patients with IBD presents a specific volatile organic compounds' (VOCs) pattern when compared to controls. Patients 10-17 years of age, were divided into four groups: Crohn's disease (CD), ulcerative colitis (UC), controls with gastrointestinal symptomatology, and surgical controls with no evidence of gastrointestinal problems. Alveolar breath was analyzed by ion molecule reaction mass spectrometry. Four models were built starting from 81 molecules plus the age of subjects as independent variables, adopting a penalizing LASSO logistic regression approach: 1) IBDs vs. controls, finally based on 18 VOCs plus age (sensitivity = 95%, specificity = 69%, AUC = 0.925); 2) CD vs. UC, finally based on 13 VOCs plus age (sensitivity = 94%, specificity = 76%, AUC = 0.934); 3) IBDs vs. gastroenterological controls, finally based on 15 VOCs plus age (sensitivity = 94%, specificity = 65%, AUC = 0.918); 4) IBDs vs. controls, built starting from the 21 directly or indirectly calibrated molecules only, and finally based on 12 VOCs plus age (sensitivity = 94%, specificity = 71%, AUC = 0.888). The molecules identified by the models were carefully studied in relation to the concerned outcomes. This study, with the creation of models based on VOCs profiles, precise instrumentation and advanced statistical methods, can contribute to the development of new non-invasive, fast and relatively inexpensive diagnostic tools, with high sensitivity and specificity. It also represents a crucial step towards gaining further insights on the etiology of IBD through the analysis of specific molecules which are the expression of the particular metabolism that characterizes these patients.

Systemic disease manifestations associated with epilepsy in tuberous sclerosis complex.

PubMed

Jeong, Anna; Wong, Michael

2016-09-01

Epilepsy is one of the most disabling symptoms of tuberous sclerosis complex (TSC) and is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in affected individuals. The relationship between systemic disease manifestations and the presence of epilepsy has not been thoroughly investigated. This study utilizes a multicenter TSC Natural History Database including 1,816 individuals to test the hypothesis that systemic disease manifestations of TSC are associated with epilepsy. Univariate analysis was used to identify patient characteristics (e.g., age, gender, race, and TSC mutation status) associated with the presence of epilepsy. Individual logistic regression models were built to examine the association between epilepsy and each candidate systemic or neurologic disease variable, controlling for the patient characteristics found to be significant on univariate analysis. Finally, a multivariable logistic regression model was constructed, using the variables found to be significant on the individual analyses as well as the patient characteristics that were significant on univariate analysis. Nearly 88% of our cohort had a history of epilepsy. After adjusting for age, gender, and TSC mutation status, multiple systemic disease manifestations including cardiac rhabdomyomas (odds ratio [OR] 2.3, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.3-3.9, p = 0.002), retinal hamartomas (OR 2.1, CI 1.0-4.3, p = 0.04), renal cysts (OR 2.1, CI 1.3-3.4, p = 0.002), renal angiomyolipomas (OR 3.0, CI 1.8-5.1, p < 0.001), shagreen patches (OR 1.7, CI 1.0-2.7, p = 0.04), and facial angiofibromas (OR 1.7, CI 1.1-2.9, p = 0.03) were associated with a higher likelihood of epilepsy. In the multivariable logistic regression model, cardiac rhabdomyomas (OR 1.9, CI 1.0-3.5, p = 0.04) remained significantly associated with the presence of epilepsy. The identification of systemic disease manifestations such as cardiac rhabdomyomas that confer a higher risk of epilepsy development in TSC could contribute to disease prognostication and assist in the identification of individuals who may receive maximal benefit from potentially novel, targeted, preventative therapies. Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 International League Against Epilepsy.

The Evaluation on the Cadmium Net Concentration for Soil Ecosystems.

PubMed

Yao, Yu; Wang, Pei-Fang; Wang, Chao; Hou, Jun; Miao, Ling-Zhan

2017-03-12

Yixing, known as the "City of Ceramics", is facing a new dilemma: a raw material crisis. Cadmium (Cd) exists in extremely high concentrations in soil due to the considerable input of industrial wastewater into the soil ecosystem. The in situ technique of diffusive gradients in thin film (DGT), the ex situ static equilibrium approach (HAc, EDTA and CaCl2), and the dissolved concentration in soil solution, as well as microwave digestion, were applied to predict the Cd bioavailability of soil, aiming to provide a robust and accurate method for Cd bioavailability evaluation in Yixing. Moreover, the typical local cash crops-paddy and zizania aquatica-were selected for Cd accumulation, aiming to select the ideal plants with tolerance to the soil Cd contamination. The results indicated that the biomasses of the two applied plants were sufficiently sensitive to reflect the stark regional differences of different sampling sites. The zizania aquatica could effectively reduce the total Cd concentration, as indicated by the high accumulation coefficients. However, the fact that the zizania aquatica has extremely high transfer coefficients, and its stem, as the edible part, might accumulate large amounts of Cd, led to the conclusion that zizania aquatica was not an ideal cash crop in Yixing. Furthermore, the labile Cd concentrations which were obtained by the DGT technique and dissolved in the soil solution showed a significant correlation with the Cd concentrations of the biota accumulation. However, the ex situ methods and the microwave digestion-obtained Cd concentrations showed a poor correlation with the accumulated Cd concentration in plant tissue. Correspondingly, the multiple linear regression models were built for fundamental analysis of the performance of different methods available for Cd bioavailability evaluation. The correlation coefficients of DGT obtained by the improved multiple linear regression model have not significantly improved compared to the coefficients obtained by the simple linear regression model. The results revealed that DGT was a robust measurement, which could obtain the labile Cd concentrations independent of the physicochemical features' variation in the soil ecosystem. Consequently, these findings provide stronger evidence that DGT is an effective and ideal tool for labile Cd evaluation in Yixing.

The Evaluation on the Cadmium Net Concentration for Soil Ecosystems

PubMed Central

Yao, Yu; Wang, Pei-Fang; Wang, Chao; Hou, Jun; Miao, Ling-Zhan

2017-01-01

Yixing, known as the “City of Ceramics”, is facing a new dilemma: a raw material crisis. Cadmium (Cd) exists in extremely high concentrations in soil due to the considerable input of industrial wastewater into the soil ecosystem. The in situ technique of diffusive gradients in thin film (DGT), the ex situ static equilibrium approach (HAc, EDTA and CaCl2), and the dissolved concentration in soil solution, as well as microwave digestion, were applied to predict the Cd bioavailability of soil, aiming to provide a robust and accurate method for Cd bioavailability evaluation in Yixing. Moreover, the typical local cash crops—paddy and zizania aquatica—were selected for Cd accumulation, aiming to select the ideal plants with tolerance to the soil Cd contamination. The results indicated that the biomasses of the two applied plants were sufficiently sensitive to reflect the stark regional differences of different sampling sites. The zizania aquatica could effectively reduce the total Cd concentration, as indicated by the high accumulation coefficients. However, the fact that the zizania aquatica has extremely high transfer coefficients, and its stem, as the edible part, might accumulate large amounts of Cd, led to the conclusion that zizania aquatica was not an ideal cash crop in Yixing. Furthermore, the labile Cd concentrations which were obtained by the DGT technique and dissolved in the soil solution showed a significant correlation with the Cd concentrations of the biota accumulation. However, the ex situ methods and the microwave digestion-obtained Cd concentrations showed a poor correlation with the accumulated Cd concentration in plant tissue. Correspondingly, the multiple linear regression models were built for fundamental analysis of the performance of different methods available for Cd bioavailability evaluation. The correlation coefficients of DGT obtained by the improved multiple linear regression model have not significantly improved compared to the coefficients obtained by the simple linear regression model. The results revealed that DGT was a robust measurement, which could obtain the labile Cd concentrations independent of the physicochemical features’ variation in the soil ecosystem. Consequently, these findings provide stronger evidence that DGT is an effective and ideal tool for labile Cd evaluation in Yixing. PMID:28287500

[Association between walking time and perception of built environment among urban adults in Hangzhou].

PubMed

Liu, Qingmin; Ren, Yanjun; Cao, Chengjian; Su, Meng; Lyu, Jun; Li, Liming

2015-10-01

To explore the association between walking time and the perception of built environment among local adults in Hangzhou. Through multistage stratified random sampling, a total of 1 440 urban residents aged 25-59 years were surveyed in Hangzhou by face-to face interview in 2012. The international physical activity questionnaire-long version (IPAQ-L) was used to assess the physical activity levels, including walking time in the past week. Neighborhood Environment Walkability Scale-Abbreviated (NEWS-A) was used to obtain information about their perception of built environment. Multiple logistic regression was applied to estimate the relationship between waking and the perception of built environment. Among the local adults in Hangzhou, the median of total physical activity was 2 766 met·min⁻¹·week⁻¹, the average walking time per week was 90 min for leisure and 100 min for transportation respectively. After controlling the age, marital status, BMI, educational level, employment, community type and the total PA scores, the leisure-time walking was negatively related to the accessibility to stores, facilities and other things for both man (OR=0.764, 95% CI: 0.588-0.992) and woman (OR=0.633, 95% CI: 0.481-0.833). In sex specific analysis, the leisure-time walking was negatively related with the residential density (OR=0.997, 95% CI: 0.996-0.999) while transportation related walking was positively related with walking/cycling way scores (OR=1.537, 95% CI: 1.138-2.075) in females. In contrast, there were no significant associations between perception of built environment and transportation related walking in males. Improving the built environment, such as the walking/cycling way, might be useful to increase the transportation related walking time for adults. The sex specific differences need to be considered in the environment intervention for walking promotion.

Using Green Building As A Model For Making Health Promotion Standard In The Built Environment.

PubMed

Trowbridge, Matthew J; Worden, Kelly; Pyke, Christopher

2016-11-01

The built environment-the constructed physical parts of the places where people live and work-is a powerful determinant of both individual and population health. Awareness of the link between place and health is growing within the public health sector and among built environment decision makers working in design, construction, policy, and both public and private finance. However, these decision makers lack the knowledge, tools, and capacity to ensure that health and well-being are routinely considered across all sectors of the built environment. The green building industry has successfully established environmental sustainability as a normative part of built environment practice, policy making, and investment. We explore the value of this industry's experience as a template for promoting health and well-being in the built environment. Project HOPE—The People-to-People Health Foundation, Inc.

Built environment and physical activity for transportation in adults from Curitiba, Brazil.

PubMed

Hino, Adriano A F; Reis, Rodrigo S; Sarmiento, Olga L; Parra, Diana C; Brownson, Ross C

2014-06-01

The goal of this study was to assess the association between features of the built environment and levels of walking and cycling as forms of transportation in the city of Curitiba, Brazil. Data collection was conducted through a telephone survey in 2008. The International Physical Activity Questionnaire was used to identify walking or cycling as forms of transportation. The built environment characteristics were obtained through the Geographic Information System for 1,206 adults. Density indicators were computed, considering a radius of 500 m around each individual's household. For the accessibility measures, the shortest distance to selected built environment features (e.g., bus stop, bike path) was used. The association between characteristics of the environment and the practice of walking or cycling was assessed through logistic regressions. After considering individual characteristics, higher-income areas (OR = 0.56, 95 % CI = 0.41-0.76), higher density of Bus Rapid Transit stations (OR = 1.50, 95 % CI = 1.22-1.84), and the proportion of residential (OR = 1.25, 95 % CI = 1.02-1.53) and commercial (OR = 1.47, 95 % CI = 1.13-1.91) areas were associated with any walking prevalence (≥ 10 min/week). Higher access to bike paths (OR = 0.80, 95 % CI = 0.64-1.00) was inversely associated with walking at recommended levels (≥ 150 min/week). Higher-income areas (OR = 0.26, 95 % CI = 0.08-0.81), greater number of traffic lights (OR = 0.27, 95 % CI = 0.09-0.88), and higher land use mix (OR = 0.52, 95 % CI = 0.31-0.88) were inversely associated with cycling. The neighborhood built environment may affect active commuting among adults living in urban centers in middle-income countries.

Three-Dimensional City Determinants of the Urban Heat Island: A Statistical Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chun, Bum Seok

There is no doubt that the Urban Heat Island (UHI) is a mounting problem in built-up environments, due to the energy retention by the surface materials of dense buildings, leading to increased temperatures, air pollution, and energy consumption. Much of the earlier research on the UHI has used two-dimensional (2-D) information, such as land uses and the distribution of vegetation. In the case of homogeneous land uses, it is possible to predict surface temperatures with reasonable accuracy with 2-D information. However, three-dimensional (3-D) information is necessary to analyze more complex sites, including dense building clusters. Recent research on the UHI has started to consider multi-dimensional models. The purpose of this research is to explore the urban determinants of the UHI, using 2-D/3-D urban information with statistical modeling. The research includes the following stages: (a) estimating urban temperature, using satellite images, (b) developing a 3-D city model by LiDAR data, (c) generating geometric parameters with regard to 2-/3-D geospatial information, and (d) conducting different statistical analyses: OLS and spatial regressions. The research area is part of the City of Columbus, Ohio. To effectively and systematically analyze the UHI, hierarchical grid scales (480m, 240m, 120m, 60m, and 30m) are proposed, together with linear and the log-linear regression models. The non-linear OLS models with Log(AST) as dependent variable have the highest R2 among all the OLS-estimated models. However, both SAR and GSM models are estimated for the 480m, 240m, 120m, and 60m grids to reduce their spatial dependency. Most GSM models have R2s higher than 0.9, except for the 240m grid. Overall, the urban characteristics having high impacts in all grids are embodied in solar radiation, 3-D open space, greenery, and water streams. These results demonstrate that it is possible to mitigate the UHI, providing guidelines for policies aiming to reduce the UHI.

Evaluating the ecological association of casino industry economic development on community health status: a natural experiment in the Mississippi delta region.

PubMed

Honoré, Peggy A; Simoes, Eduardo J; Moonesinghe, Ramal; Wang, Xueyuan; Brown, Lovetta

2007-01-01

Objectives of this study were to examine for associations of casino industry economic development on improving community health status and funding for public health services in two counties in the Mississippi Delta Region of the United States. An ecological approach was used to evaluate whether two counties with casino gaming had improved health status and public health funding in comparison with two noncasino counties in the same region with similar social, racial, and ethic backgrounds. Variables readily available from state health department records were used to develop a logic model for guiding analytical work. A linear regression model was built using a stepwise approach and hierarchical regression principles with many dependent variables and a set of fixed and nonfixed independent variables. County-level data for 23 variables over an 11-year period were used. Overall, this study found a lack of association between the presence of a casino and desirable health outcomes or funding for public health services. Changes in the environment were made to promote health by utilizing gaming revenues to build state-of-the-art community health and wellness centers and sports facilities. However, significant increases in funding for local public health services were not found in either of the counties with casinos. These findings are relevant for policy makers when debating economic development strategies. Analysis similar to this should be combined with other routine public health assessments after implementation of development strategies to increase knowledge of health outcome trends and shifts in socioeconomic position that may be expected to accrue from economic development projects.

Optimizing data collection for public health decisions: a data mining approach

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Collecting data can be cumbersome and expensive. Lack of relevant, accurate and timely data for research to inform policy may negatively impact public health. The aim of this study was to test if the careful removal of items from two community nutrition surveys guided by a data mining technique called feature selection, can (a) identify a reduced dataset, while (b) not damaging the signal inside that data. Methods The Nutrition Environment Measures Surveys for stores (NEMS-S) and restaurants (NEMS-R) were completed on 885 retail food outlets in two counties in West Virginia between May and November of 2011. A reduced dataset was identified for each outlet type using feature selection. Coefficients from linear regression modeling were used to weight items in the reduced datasets. Weighted item values were summed with the error term to compute reduced item survey scores. Scores produced by the full survey were compared to the reduced item scores using a Wilcoxon rank-sum test. Results Feature selection identified 9 store and 16 restaurant survey items as significant predictors of the score produced from the full survey. The linear regression models built from the reduced feature sets had R2 values of 92% and 94% for restaurant and grocery store data, respectively. Conclusions While there are many potentially important variables in any domain, the most useful set may only be a small subset. The use of feature selection in the initial phase of data collection to identify the most influential variables may be a useful tool to greatly reduce the amount of data needed thereby reducing cost. PMID:24919484

PubMed Central

GUZZO, A.S.; MEGGIOLARO, A.; MANNOCCI, A.; TECCA, M.; SALOMONE, I.

2015-01-01

Summary Introduction. "Umberto I" Teaching Hospital adopted 'Conley scale' as internal procedure for fall risk assessment, with the aim of strengthening surveillance and improving prevention and management of impatient falls. Materials and methods. Case-control study was performed. Fall events from 1st March 2012 to 30th September 2013 were considered. Cases have been matched for gender, department and period of hospitalization with two or three controls when it is possible. A table including intrinsic and extrinsic 'fall risk' factors, not foreseen by Conley Scale, and setted up after a literature overview was built. Univariate analysis and conditional logistic regression model have been performed. Results. 50 cases and 102 controls were included. Adverse event 'fall' were associated with filled Conley scale at the admission to care unit (OR = 4.92, 95%CI = 2.34-10.37). Univariate analysis identified intrinsic factors increasing risk of falls: dizziness (OR = 3.22; 95%CI = 1.34-7.75), psychomotor agitation (OR = 2.61; 95%CI = 1.06-6.43); and use of means of restraint (OR = 5.05 95%CI = 1.77-14.43). Conditional logistic regression model revealed a significant association with the following variables: use of instruments of restraint (HR = 5.54, 95%CI = 1.2- 23.80), dizziness (OR = 3.97, 95%CI = 1.22-12.89). Discussion. Conley Scale must be filled at the access of patient to care unit. There were no significant differences between cases and controls with regard to risk factors provided by Conley, except for the use of means of restraint. Empowerment strategies for Conley compilation are needed. PMID:26789993

Optimizing data collection for public health decisions: a data mining approach.

PubMed

Partington, Susan N; Papakroni, Vasil; Menzies, Tim

2014-06-12

Collecting data can be cumbersome and expensive. Lack of relevant, accurate and timely data for research to inform policy may negatively impact public health. The aim of this study was to test if the careful removal of items from two community nutrition surveys guided by a data mining technique called feature selection, can (a) identify a reduced dataset, while (b) not damaging the signal inside that data. The Nutrition Environment Measures Surveys for stores (NEMS-S) and restaurants (NEMS-R) were completed on 885 retail food outlets in two counties in West Virginia between May and November of 2011. A reduced dataset was identified for each outlet type using feature selection. Coefficients from linear regression modeling were used to weight items in the reduced datasets. Weighted item values were summed with the error term to compute reduced item survey scores. Scores produced by the full survey were compared to the reduced item scores using a Wilcoxon rank-sum test. Feature selection identified 9 store and 16 restaurant survey items as significant predictors of the score produced from the full survey. The linear regression models built from the reduced feature sets had R2 values of 92% and 94% for restaurant and grocery store data, respectively. While there are many potentially important variables in any domain, the most useful set may only be a small subset. The use of feature selection in the initial phase of data collection to identify the most influential variables may be a useful tool to greatly reduce the amount of data needed thereby reducing cost.

Disentangling Environmental and Anthropogenic Impacts on the Distribution of Unintentionally Introduced Invasive Alien Insects in Mainland China

PubMed Central

Zhao, Cai-Yun; Xu, Jing; Liu, Xiao-Yan

2017-01-01

Abstract Globalization increases the opportunities for unintentionally introduced invasive alien species, especially for insects, and most of these species could damage ecosystems and cause economic loss in China. In this study, we analyzed drivers of the distribution of unintentionally introduced invasive alien insects. Based on the number of unintentionally introduced invasive alien insects and their presence/absence records in each province in mainland China, regression trees were built to elucidate the roles of environmental and anthropogenic factors on the number distribution and similarity of species composition of these insects. Classification and regression trees indicated climatic suitability (the mean temperature in January) and human economic activity (sum of total freight) are primary drivers for the number distribution pattern of unintentionally introduced invasive alien insects at provincial scale, while only environmental factors (the mean January temperature, the annual precipitation and the areas of provinces) significantly affect the similarity of them based on the multivariate regression trees. PMID:28973576

Rapid model building of beta-sheets in electron-density maps.

PubMed

Terwilliger, Thomas C

2010-03-01

A method for rapidly building beta-sheets into electron-density maps is presented. beta-Strands are identified as tubes of high density adjacent to and nearly parallel to other tubes of density. The alignment and direction of each strand are identified from the pattern of high density corresponding to carbonyl and C(beta) atoms along the strand averaged over all repeats present in the strand. The beta-strands obtained are then assembled into a single atomic model of the beta-sheet regions. The method was tested on a set of 42 experimental electron-density maps at resolutions ranging from 1.5 to 3.8 A. The beta-sheet regions were nearly completely built in all but two cases, the exceptions being one structure at 2.5 A resolution in which a third of the residues in beta-sheets were built and a structure at 3.8 A in which under 10% were built. The overall average r.m.s.d. of main-chain atoms in the residues built using this method compared with refined models of the structures was 1.5 A.

Does Proximity to Retailers Influence Alcohol and Tobacco Use Among Latino Adolescents?

PubMed Central

Blumberg, Elaine J.; Kelley, Norma J.; Hill, Linda; Sipan, Carol L.; Schmitz, Katherine E.; Ryan, Sherry; Clapp, John D.; Hovell, Melbourne F.

2009-01-01

Despite decades of research surrounding determinants of alcohol and tobacco (A&T) use among adolescents, built environment influences have only recently been explored. This study used ordinal regression on 205 Latino adolescents to explore the influence of the built environment (proximity to A&T retailers) on A&T use, while controlling for recognized social predictors. The sample was 45% foreign-born. A&T use was associated with distance from respondents’ home to the nearest A&T retailer (−), acculturation (+), parents’ consistent use of contingency management (−), peer use of A&T (+), skipping school (+), attending school in immediate proximity to the US/Mexico border (+), and the interaction between the distance to the nearest retailer and parents’ consistent use of contingency management (+). The association between decreasing distance to the nearest A&T retailer and increased A&T use in Latino adolescents reveals an additional risk behavior determinant in the US–Mexico border region. PMID:19936923

Dangerous student car drop-off behaviors and child pedestrian-motor vehicle collisions: An observational study.

PubMed

Rothman, Linda; Howard, Andrew; Buliung, Ron; Macarthur, Colin; Macpherson, Alison

2016-07-03

The objective of this study was to examine the association between dangerous student car drop-off behaviors and historical child pedestrian-motor vehicle collisions (PMVCs) near elementary schools in Toronto, Canada. Police-reported child PMVCs during school travel times from 2000 to 2011 were mapped within 200 m of 118 elementary schools. Observers measured dangerous student morning car drop-off behaviors and number of children walking to school during one day in 2011. A composite score of school social disadvantage was obtained from the Toronto District School Board. Built environment and traffic features were mapped and included as covariates. A multivariate Poisson regression was used to model the rates of PMVC/number of children walking and dangerous student car drop-off behaviors, adjusting for the built environment and social disadvantage. There were 45 child PMVCs, with 29 (64%) sustaining minor injuries resulting in emergency department visits. The mean collision rate was 2.9/10,000 children walking/year (SD = 6.7). Dangerous drop-off behaviors were observed in 104 schools (88%). In the multivariate analysis, each additional dangerous drop-off behavior was associated with a 45% increase in collision rates (incident rate ratio [IRR] = 1.45, 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.02, 2.07). Higher speed roads (IRR = 1.27, 95% CI, 1.13, 1.44) and social disadvantage (IRR = 2.99, 95% CI, 1.03, 8.68) were associated with higher collision rates. Dangerous student car drop-off behaviors were associated with historical nonfatal child PMVC rates during school travel times near schools. Some caution must be taken in interpreting these results due small number of events and limitations in the data collection, because collision data were collected historically over a 12-year period, whereas driving behavior was only observed on a single day in 2011. Targeted multifaceted intervention approaches related to the built environment, enforcement, and education could address dangerous drop-off behaviors near schools to reduce child PMVCs and promote safe walking to school.

Environmental perceptions as mediators of the relationship between the objective built environment and walking among socio-economically disadvantaged women.

PubMed

Van Dyck, Delfien; Veitch, Jenny; De Bourdeaudhuij, Ilse; Thornton, Lukar; Ball, Kylie

2013-09-19

Women living in socio-economically disadvantaged neighbourhoods are at increased risk for physical inactivity and associated health outcomes and are difficult to reach through personally tailored interventions. Targeting the built environment may be an effective strategy in this population subgroup. The aim of this study was to examine the mediating role of environmental perceptions in the relationship between the objective environment and walking for transportation/recreation among women from socio-economically disadvantaged neighbourhoods. Baseline data of the Resilience for Eating and Activity Despite Inequality (READI) study were used. In total, 4139 women (18-46 years) completed a postal survey assessing physical environmental perceptions (aesthetics, neighbourhood physical activity environment, personal safety, neighbourhood social cohesion), physical activity, and socio-demographics. Objectively-assessed data on street connectivity and density of destinations were collected using a Geographic Information System database and based on the objective z-scores, an objective destinations/connectivity score was calculated. This index was positively scored, with higher scores representing a more favourable environment. Two-level mixed models regression analyses were conducted and the MacKinnon product-of-coefficients test was used to examine the mediating effects. The destinations/connectivity score was positively associated with transport-related walking. The perceived physical activity environment mediated 6.1% of this positive association. The destinations/connectivity score was negatively associated with leisure-time walking. Negative perceptions of aesthetics, personal safety and social cohesion of the neighbourhood jointly mediated 24.1% of this negative association. For women living in socio-economically disadvantaged neighbourhoods, environmental perceptions were important mediators of the relationship between the objective built environment and walking. To increase both transport-related and leisure-time walking, it is necessary to improve both objective walkability-related characteristics (street connectivity and proximity of destinations), and perceptions of personal safety, favourable aesthetics and neighbourhood social cohesion.

Regression Trees Identify Relevant Interactions: Can This Improve the Predictive Performance of Risk Adjustment?

PubMed

Buchner, Florian; Wasem, Jürgen; Schillo, Sonja

2017-01-01

Risk equalization formulas have been refined since their introduction about two decades ago. Because of the complexity and the abundance of possible interactions between the variables used, hardly any interactions are considered. A regression tree is used to systematically search for interactions, a methodologically new approach in risk equalization. Analyses are based on a data set of nearly 2.9 million individuals from a major German social health insurer. A two-step approach is applied: In the first step a regression tree is built on the basis of the learning data set. Terminal nodes characterized by more than one morbidity-group-split represent interaction effects of different morbidity groups. In the second step the 'traditional' weighted least squares regression equation is expanded by adding interaction terms for all interactions detected by the tree, and regression coefficients are recalculated. The resulting risk adjustment formula shows an improvement in the adjusted R 2 from 25.43% to 25.81% on the evaluation data set. Predictive ratios are calculated for subgroups affected by the interactions. The R 2 improvement detected is only marginal. According to the sample level performance measures used, not involving a considerable number of morbidity interactions forms no relevant loss in accuracy. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Poisson Mixture Regression Models for Heart Disease Prediction.

PubMed

Mufudza, Chipo; Erol, Hamza

2016-01-01

Early heart disease control can be achieved by high disease prediction and diagnosis efficiency. This paper focuses on the use of model based clustering techniques to predict and diagnose heart disease via Poisson mixture regression models. Analysis and application of Poisson mixture regression models is here addressed under two different classes: standard and concomitant variable mixture regression models. Results show that a two-component concomitant variable Poisson mixture regression model predicts heart disease better than both the standard Poisson mixture regression model and the ordinary general linear Poisson regression model due to its low Bayesian Information Criteria value. Furthermore, a Zero Inflated Poisson Mixture Regression model turned out to be the best model for heart prediction over all models as it both clusters individuals into high or low risk category and predicts rate to heart disease componentwise given clusters available. It is deduced that heart disease prediction can be effectively done by identifying the major risks componentwise using Poisson mixture regression model.

Poisson Mixture Regression Models for Heart Disease Prediction

PubMed Central

Erol, Hamza

2016-01-01

Early heart disease control can be achieved by high disease prediction and diagnosis efficiency. This paper focuses on the use of model based clustering techniques to predict and diagnose heart disease via Poisson mixture regression models. Analysis and application of Poisson mixture regression models is here addressed under two different classes: standard and concomitant variable mixture regression models. Results show that a two-component concomitant variable Poisson mixture regression model predicts heart disease better than both the standard Poisson mixture regression model and the ordinary general linear Poisson regression model due to its low Bayesian Information Criteria value. Furthermore, a Zero Inflated Poisson Mixture Regression model turned out to be the best model for heart prediction over all models as it both clusters individuals into high or low risk category and predicts rate to heart disease componentwise given clusters available. It is deduced that heart disease prediction can be effectively done by identifying the major risks componentwise using Poisson mixture regression model. PMID:27999611

Worksite safety climate, smoking, and the use of protective equipment by blue collar building workers enrolled in the MassBUILT smoking cessation trial

PubMed Central

Dutra, Lauren M; Kim, Seung-Sup; Williams, David R; Kawachi, Ichiro; Okechukwu, Cassandra A

2014-01-01

Objective In order to assess potential contributors to high injury rates and smoking prevalence among construction workers, we investigated the association of safety climate with personal protective equipment (PPE) use, and smoking behaviors. Methods Logistic regression models estimated risk ratios for PPE use and smoking using data from participants in MassBUILT smoking cessation intervention (n=1,725). Results Contractor safety climate was negatively associated with use of dust masks (RR=0.88,95%CI:0.83–0.94); respirators (RR=0.82,95%CI:0.75–0.89); general equipment (RR=0.98,95%CI:0.95–1.00); and fall protection (RR=0.94,95%CI:0.91–0.98) and positively associated with current smoking (RR=1.12,95%CI:1.01–1.25) but not smoking cessation. Coworker safety climate was negatively associated with use of dust masks (RR=0.87,95%CI:0.82–0.92); respirators (RR=0.80,95%CI:0.74–0.87); general equipment (RR=0.96,95%CI:0.94–0.98); fall (RR=0.92,95%CI:0.89–0.96) and hearing (RR=0.88,95%CI:0.83–0.93) protection but not smoking. Conclusions Worksite safety climate may be important for PPE use and smoking, but further research is needed. PMID:25285831

Natural image classification driven by human brain activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Dai; Peng, Hanyang; Wang, Jinqiao; Tang, Ming; Xue, Rong; Zuo, Zhentao

2016-03-01

Natural image classification has been a hot topic in computer vision and pattern recognition research field. Since the performance of an image classification system can be improved by feature selection, many image feature selection methods have been developed. However, the existing supervised feature selection methods are typically driven by the class label information that are identical for different samples from the same class, ignoring with-in class image variability and therefore degrading the feature selection performance. In this study, we propose a novel feature selection method, driven by human brain activity signals collected using fMRI technique when human subjects were viewing natural images of different categories. The fMRI signals associated with subjects viewing different images encode the human perception of natural images, and therefore may capture image variability within- and cross- categories. We then select image features with the guidance of fMRI signals from brain regions with active response to image viewing. Particularly, bag of words features based on GIST descriptor are extracted from natural images for classification, and a sparse regression base feature selection method is adapted to select image features that can best predict fMRI signals. Finally, a classification model is built on the select image features to classify images without fMRI signals. The validation experiments for classifying images from 4 categories of two subjects have demonstrated that our method could achieve much better classification performance than the classifiers built on image feature selected by traditional feature selection methods.

Youth dietary intake and weight status: healthful neighborhood food environments enhance the protective role of supportive family home environments.

PubMed

Berge, Jerica M; Wall, Melanie; Larson, Nicole; Forsyth, Ann; Bauer, Katherine W; Neumark-Sztainer, Dianne

2014-03-01

The aim of this study is to investigate individual and joint associations of the home environment and the neighborhood built environment with adolescent dietary patterns and body mass index (BMI) z-score. Racially/ethnically and socioeconomically diverse adolescents (n=2682; 53.2% girls; mean age14.4 years) participating in the EAT 2010 (Eating and Activity in Teens) study completed height and weight measurements and surveys in Minnesota middle and high schools. Neighborhood variables were measured using Geographic Information Systems data. Multiple regressions of BMI z-score, fruit and vegetable intake, and fast food consumption were fit including home and neighborhood environmental variables as predictors and also including their interactions to test for effect modification. Supportive family environments (i.e., higher family functioning, frequent family meals, and parent modeling of healthful eating) were associated with higher adolescent fruit and vegetable intake, lower fast food consumption, and lower BMI z-score. Associations between the built environment and adolescent outcomes were fewer. Interaction results, although not all consistent, indicated that the relationship between a supportive family environment and adolescent fruit and vegetable intake and BMI was enhanced when the neighborhood was supportive of healthful behavior. Public health interventions that simultaneously improve both the home environment and the neighborhood environment of adolescents may have a greater impact on adolescent obesity prevention than interventions that address one of these environments alone. © 2013 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Determining the impact of urban components on land surface temperature of Istanbul by using remote sensing indices.

PubMed

Bektaş Balçik, Filiz

2014-02-01

For the past 60 years, Istanbul has been experiencing an accelerated urban expansion. This urban expansion is leading to the replacement of natural surfaces by various artificial materials. This situation has a critical impact on the environment due to the alteration of heat energy balance. In this study, the effect upon the urban heat island (UHI) of Istanbul was analyzed using 2009 dated Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM) data. An Index Based Built-up Index (IBI) was used to derive artificial surfaces in the study area. To produce the IBI index, Soil-Adjusted Vegetation Index, Normalized Difference Built-up Index, and Modified Normalized Difference Water Index were calculated. Land surface temperature (LST) distribution was derived from Landsat 5 TM images using a mono-window algorithm. In addition, 24 transects were selected, and different regression models were applied to explore the correlation between LST and IBI index. The results show that artificial surfaces have a positive exponential relationship with LST rather than a simple linear one. An ecological evaluation index of the region was calculated to explore the impact of both the vegetated land and the artificial surfaces on the UHI. Therefore, the quantitative relationship of urban components (artificial surfaces, vegetation, and water) and LST was examined using multivariate statistical analysis, and the correlation coefficient was obtained as 0.829. This suggested that the areas with a high rate of urbanization will accelerate the rise of LST and UHI in Istanbul.

Design of Soil Salinity Policies with Tinamit, a Flexible and Rapid Tool to Couple Stakeholder-Built System Dynamics Models with Physically-Based Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malard, J. J.; Baig, A. I.; Hassanzadeh, E.; Adamowski, J. F.; Tuy, H.; Melgar-Quiñonez, H.

2016-12-01

Model coupling is a crucial step to constructing many environmental models, as it allows for the integration of independently-built models representing different system sub-components to simulate the entire system. Model coupling has been of particular interest in combining socioeconomic System Dynamics (SD) models, whose visual interface facilitates their direct use by stakeholders, with more complex physically-based models of the environmental system. However, model coupling processes are often cumbersome and inflexible and require extensive programming knowledge, limiting their potential for continued use by stakeholders in policy design and analysis after the end of the project. Here, we present Tinamit, a flexible Python-based model-coupling software tool whose easy-to-use API and graphical user interface make the coupling of stakeholder-built SD models with physically-based models rapid, flexible and simple for users with limited to no coding knowledge. The flexibility of the system allows end users to modify the SD model as well as the linking variables between the two models themselves with no need for recoding. We use Tinamit to couple a stakeholder-built socioeconomic model of soil salinization in Pakistan with the physically-based soil salinity model SAHYSMOD. As climate extremes increase in the region, policies to slow or reverse soil salinity buildup are increasing in urgency and must take both socioeconomic and biophysical spheres into account. We use the Tinamit-coupled model to test the impact of integrated policy options (economic and regulatory incentives to farmers) on soil salinity in the region in the face of future climate change scenarios. Use of the Tinamit model allowed for rapid and flexible coupling of the two models, allowing the end user to continue making model structure and policy changes. In addition, the clear interface (in contrast to most model coupling code) makes the final coupled model easily accessible to stakeholders with limited technical background.

The relationship between built-up areas and the spatial development of the mean maximum urban heat island in Debrecen, Hungary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bottyán, Zsolt; Kircsi, Andrea; Szegedi, Sándor; Unger, János

2005-03-01

The climate of built-up regions differs significantly from rural regions and the most important modifying effect of urbanization on local climate is the urban temperature excess, otherwise called the urban heat island (UHI).This study examines the influence of built-up areas on the near-surface air temperature field in the case of the medium-sized city of Debrecen, Hungary. Mobile measurements were used under different weather conditions between March 2002 and March 2003. Efforts concentrated on the determination of the spatial distribution of mean maximum UHI intensity with special regard to land-use features such as built-up ratio and its areal extensions.In both (heating and non-heating) seasons the spatial distribution of the UHI intensity field showed a basically concentric shape with local anomalies. The mean maximum UHI intensity reaches more than 2.0 °C (heating season) and 2.5 °C (non-heating season) in the centre of the city. We established the relationship between the above-mentioned land-use parameters and mean maximum UHI intensity by means of multiple linear regression analysis. As the measured and predicted mean maximum UHI intensity patterns show, there is an obvious connection between the spatial distribution of urban thermal excess and the land-use parameters examined, so these parameters play a significant role in the development of the strong UHI intensity field over the city.

An Integrated and Interdisciplinary Model for Predicting the Risk of Injury and Death in Future Earthquakes.

PubMed

Shapira, Stav; Novack, Lena; Bar-Dayan, Yaron; Aharonson-Daniel, Limor

2016-01-01

A comprehensive technique for earthquake-related casualty estimation remains an unmet challenge. This study aims to integrate risk factors related to characteristics of the exposed population and to the built environment in order to improve communities' preparedness and response capabilities and to mitigate future consequences. An innovative model was formulated based on a widely used loss estimation model (HAZUS) by integrating four human-related risk factors (age, gender, physical disability and socioeconomic status) that were identified through a systematic review and meta-analysis of epidemiological data. The common effect measures of these factors were calculated and entered to the existing model's algorithm using logistic regression equations. Sensitivity analysis was performed by conducting a casualty estimation simulation in a high-vulnerability risk area in Israel. the integrated model outcomes indicated an increase in the total number of casualties compared with the prediction of the traditional model; with regard to specific injury levels an increase was demonstrated in the number of expected fatalities and in the severely and moderately injured, and a decrease was noted in the lightly injured. Urban areas with higher populations at risk rates were found more vulnerable in this regard. The proposed model offers a novel approach that allows quantification of the combined impact of human-related and structural factors on the results of earthquake casualty modelling. Investing efforts in reducing human vulnerability and increasing resilience prior to an occurrence of an earthquake could lead to a possible decrease in the expected number of casualties.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lian, Jun, E-mail: jun-lian@med.unc.edu; Chera, Bhishamjit S.; Chang, Sha

Purpose: To build a statistical model to quantitatively correlate the anatomic features of structures and the corresponding dose-volume histogram (DVH) of head and neck (HN) Tomotherapy (Tomo) plans. To study if the model built upon one intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) technique (such as conventional Linac) can be used to predict anticipated organs-at-risk (OAR) DVH of patients treated with a different IMRT technique (such as Tomo). To study if the model built upon the clinical experience of one institution can be used to aid IMRT planning for another institution. Methods: Forty-four Tomotherapy intensity modulate radiotherapy plans of HN cases (Tomo-IMRT)more » from Institution A were included in the study. A different patient group of 53 HN fixed gantry IMRT (FG-IMRT) plans was selected from Institution B. The analyzed OARs included the parotid, larynx, spinal cord, brainstem, and submandibular gland. Two major groups of anatomical features were considered: the volumetric information and the spatial information. The volume information includes the volume of target, OAR, and overlapped volume between target and OAR. The spatial information of OARs relative to PTVs was represented by the distance-to-target histogram (DTH). Important anatomical and dosimetric features were extracted from DTH and DVH by principal component analysis. Two regression models, one for Tomotherapy plan and one for IMRT plan, were built independently. The accuracy of intratreatment-modality model prediction was validated by a leave one out cross-validation method. The intertechnique and interinstitution validations were performed by using the FG-IMRT model to predict the OAR dosimetry of Tomo-IMRT plans. The dosimetry of OARs, under the same and different institutional preferences, was analyzed to examine the correlation between the model prediction and planning protocol. Results: Significant patient anatomical factors contributing to OAR dose sparing in HN Tomotherapy plans have been analyzed and identified. For all the OARs, the discrepancies of dose indices between the model predicted values and the actual plan values were within 2.1%. Similar results were obtained from the modeling of FG-IMRT plans. The parotid gland was spared in a comparable fashion during the treatment planning of two institutions. The model based on FG-IMRT plans was found to predict the median dose of the parotid of Tomotherapy plans quite well, with a mean error of 2.6%. Predictions from the FG-IMRT model suggested the median dose of the larynx, median dose of the brainstem and D2 of the brainstem could be reduced by 10.5%, 12.8%, and 20.4%, respectively, in the Tomo-IMRT plans. This was found to be correlated to the institutional differences in OAR constraint settings. Re-planning of six Tomotherapy patients confirmed the potential of optimization improvement predicted by the FG-IMRT model was correct. Conclusions: The authors established a mathematical model to correlate the anatomical features and dosimetric indexes of OARs of HN patients in Tomotherapy plans. The model can be used for the setup of patient-specific OAR dose sparing goals and quality control of planning results. The institutional clinical experience was incorporated into the model which allows the model from one institution to generate a reference plan for another institution, or another IMRT technique.« less

Hyperspectral Analysis of Soil Total Nitrogen in Subsided Land Using the Local Correlation Maximization-Complementary Superiority (LCMCS) Method

PubMed Central

Lin, Lixin; Wang, Yunjia; Teng, Jiyao; Xi, Xiuxiu

2015-01-01

The measurement of soil total nitrogen (TN) by hyperspectral remote sensing provides an important tool for soil restoration programs in areas with subsided land caused by the extraction of natural resources. This study used the local correlation maximization-complementary superiority method (LCMCS) to establish TN prediction models by considering the relationship between spectral reflectance (measured by an ASD FieldSpec 3 spectroradiometer) and TN based on spectral reflectance curves of soil samples collected from subsided land which is determined by synthetic aperture radar interferometry (InSAR) technology. Based on the 1655 selected effective bands of the optimal spectrum (OSP) of the first derivate differential of reciprocal logarithm ([log{1/R}]′), (correlation coefficients, p < 0.01), the optimal model of LCMCS method was obtained to determine the final model, which produced lower prediction errors (root mean square error of validation [RMSEV] = 0.89, mean relative error of validation [MREV] = 5.93%) when compared with models built by the local correlation maximization (LCM), complementary superiority (CS) and partial least squares regression (PLS) methods. The predictive effect of LCMCS model was optional in Cangzhou, Renqiu and Fengfeng District. Results indicate that the LCMCS method has great potential to monitor TN in subsided lands caused by the extraction of natural resources including groundwater, oil and coal. PMID:26213935

Application of Linear Mixed-Effects Models in Human Neuroscience Research: A Comparison with Pearson Correlation in Two Auditory Electrophysiology Studies

PubMed Central

Koerner, Tess K.; Zhang, Yang

2017-01-01

Neurophysiological studies are often designed to examine relationships between measures from different testing conditions, time points, or analysis techniques within the same group of participants. Appropriate statistical techniques that can take into account repeated measures and multivariate predictor variables are integral and essential to successful data analysis and interpretation. This work implements and compares conventional Pearson correlations and linear mixed-effects (LME) regression models using data from two recently published auditory electrophysiology studies. For the specific research questions in both studies, the Pearson correlation test is inappropriate for determining strengths between the behavioral responses for speech-in-noise recognition and the multiple neurophysiological measures as the neural responses across listening conditions were simply treated as independent measures. In contrast, the LME models allow a systematic approach to incorporate both fixed-effect and random-effect terms to deal with the categorical grouping factor of listening conditions, between-subject baseline differences in the multiple measures, and the correlational structure among the predictor variables. Together, the comparative data demonstrate the advantages as well as the necessity to apply mixed-effects models to properly account for the built-in relationships among the multiple predictor variables, which has important implications for proper statistical modeling and interpretation of human behavior in terms of neural correlates and biomarkers. PMID:28264422

Parametric regression model for survival data: Weibull regression model as an example

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Weibull regression model is one of the most popular forms of parametric regression model that it provides estimate of baseline hazard function, as well as coefficients for covariates. Because of technical difficulties, Weibull regression model is seldom used in medical literature as compared to the semi-parametric proportional hazard model. To make clinical investigators familiar with Weibull regression model, this article introduces some basic knowledge on Weibull regression model and then illustrates how to fit the model with R software. The SurvRegCensCov package is useful in converting estimated coefficients to clinical relevant statistics such as hazard ratio (HR) and event time ratio (ETR). Model adequacy can be assessed by inspecting Kaplan-Meier curves stratified by categorical variable. The eha package provides an alternative method to model Weibull regression model. The check.dist() function helps to assess goodness-of-fit of the model. Variable selection is based on the importance of a covariate, which can be tested using anova() function. Alternatively, backward elimination starting from a full model is an efficient way for model development. Visualization of Weibull regression model after model development is interesting that it provides another way to report your findings. PMID:28149846

Introduction to the use of regression models in epidemiology.

PubMed

Bender, Ralf

2009-01-01

Regression modeling is one of the most important statistical techniques used in analytical epidemiology. By means of regression models the effect of one or several explanatory variables (e.g., exposures, subject characteristics, risk factors) on a response variable such as mortality or cancer can be investigated. From multiple regression models, adjusted effect estimates can be obtained that take the effect of potential confounders into account. Regression methods can be applied in all epidemiologic study designs so that they represent a universal tool for data analysis in epidemiology. Different kinds of regression models have been developed in dependence on the measurement scale of the response variable and the study design. The most important methods are linear regression for continuous outcomes, logistic regression for binary outcomes, Cox regression for time-to-event data, and Poisson regression for frequencies and rates. This chapter provides a nontechnical introduction to these regression models with illustrating examples from cancer research.

Prediction of Ba, Mn and Zn for tropical soils using iron oxides and magnetic susceptibility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marques Júnior, José; Arantes Camargo, Livia; Reynaldo Ferracciú Alleoni, Luís; Tadeu Pereira, Gener; De Bortoli Teixeira, Daniel; Santos Rabelo de Souza Bahia, Angelica

2017-04-01

Agricultural activity is an important source of potentially toxic elements (PTEs) in soil worldwide but particularly in heavily farmed areas. Spatial distribution characterization of PTE contents in farming areas is crucial to assess further environmental impacts caused by soil contamination. Designing prediction models become quite useful to characterize the spatial variability of continuous variables, as it allows prediction of soil attributes that might be difficult to attain in a large number of samples through conventional methods. This study aimed to evaluate, in three geomorphic surfaces of Oxisols, the capacity for predicting PTEs (Ba, Mn, Zn) and their spatial variability using iron oxides and magnetic susceptibility (MS). Soil samples were collected from three geomorphic surfaces and analyzed for chemical, physical, mineralogical properties, as well as magnetic susceptibility (MS). PTE prediction models were calibrated by multiple linear regression (MLR). MLR calibration accuracy was evaluated using the coefficient of determination (R2). PTE spatial distribution maps were built using the values calculated by the calibrated models that reached the best accuracy by means of geostatistics. The high correlations between the attributes clay, MS, hematite (Hm), iron oxides extracted by sodium dithionite-citrate-bicarbonate (Fed), and iron oxides extracted using acid ammonium oxalate (Feo) with the elements Ba, Mn, and Zn enabled them to be selected as predictors for PTEs. Stepwise multiple linear regression showed that MS and Fed were the best PTE predictors individually, as they promoted no significant increase in R2 when two or more attributes were considered together. The MS-calibrated models for Ba, Mn, and Zn prediction exhibited R2 values of 0.88, 0.66, and 0.55, respectively. These are promising results since MS is a fast, cheap, and non-destructive tool, allowing the prediction of a large number of samples, which in turn enables detailed mapping of large areas. MS predicted values enabled the characterization and the understanding of spatial variability of the studied PTEs.

Tundra plant above-ground biomass and shrub dominance mapped across the North Slope of Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berner, Logan T.; Jantz, Patrick; Tape, Ken D.; Goetz, Scott J.

2018-03-01

Arctic tundra is becoming greener and shrubbier due to recent warming. This is impacting climate feedbacks and wildlife, yet the spatial distribution of plant biomass in tundra ecosystems is uncertain. In this study, we mapped plant and shrub above-ground biomass (AGB; kg m-2) and shrub dominance (%; shrub AGB/plant AGB) across the North Slope of Alaska by linking biomass harvests at 28 field sites with 30 m resolution Landsat satellite imagery. We first developed regression models (p < 0.01) to predict plant AGB (r 2 = 0.79) and shrub AGB (r 2 = 0.82) based on the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) derived from imagery acquired by Landsat 5 and 7. We then predicted regional plant and shrub AGB by combining these regression models with a regional Landsat NDVI mosaic built from 1721 summer scenes acquired between 2007 and 2016. Our approach employed a Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis that propagated sampling and sensor calibration errors. We estimated that plant AGB averaged 0.74 (0.60, 0.88) kg m-2 (95% CI) and totaled 112 (91, 135) Tg across the region, with shrub AGB accounting for ~43% of regional plant AGB. The new maps capture landscape variation in plant AGB visible in high resolution satellite and aerial imagery, notably shrubby riparian corridors. Modeled shrub AGB was strongly correlated with field measurements of shrub canopy height at 25 sites (rs  = 0.88) and with a regional map of shrub cover (rs  = 0.76). Modeled plant AGB and shrub dominance were higher in shrub tundra than graminoid tundra and increased between areas with the coldest and warmest summer air temperatures, underscoring the fact that future warming has the potential to greatly increase plant AGB and shrub dominance in this region. These new biomass maps provide a unique source of ecological information for a region undergoing rapid environmental change.

Rice production model based on the concept of ecological footprint

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faiz, S. A.; Wicaksono, A. D.; Dinanti, D.

2017-06-01

Pursuant to what had been stated in Region Spatial Planning (RTRW) of Malang Regency for period 2010-2030, Malang Regency was considered as the center of agricultural development, including districts bordered with Malang City. To protect the region functioning as the provider of rice production, then the policy of sustainable food farming-land (LP2B) was made which its implementation aims to protect rice-land. In the existing condition, LP2B system was not maximally executed, and it caused a limited extend of rice-land to deliver rice production output. One cause related with the development of settlements and industries due to the effect of Malang City that converted land-function. Location of research focused on 30 villages with direct border with Malang City. Review was conducted to develop a model of relation between farming production output and ecological footprint variables. These variables include rice-land area (X1), built land percentage (X2), and number of farmers (X3). Analysis technique was regression. Result of regression indicated that the model of rice production output Y=-207,983 + 10.246X1. Rice-land area (X1) was the most influential independent variable. It was concluded that of villages directly bordered with Malang City, there were 11 villages with higher production potential because their rice production yield was more than 1,000 tons/year, while 12 villages were threatened with low production output because its rice production yield only attained 500 tons/year. Based on the model and the spatial direction of RTRW, it can be said that the direction for the farming development policy must be redesigned to maintain rice-land area on the regions on which agricultural activity was still dominant. Because rice-land area was the most influential factor to farming production. Therefore, the wider the rice-land is, the higher rice production output is on each village.

Automatically rating trainee skill at a pediatric laparoscopic suturing task.

PubMed

Oquendo, Yousi A; Riddle, Elijah W; Hiller, Dennis; Blinman, Thane A; Kuchenbecker, Katherine J

2018-04-01

Minimally invasive surgeons must acquire complex technical skills while minimizing patient risk, a challenge that is magnified in pediatric surgery. Trainees need realistic practice with frequent detailed feedback, but human grading is tedious and subjective. We aim to validate a novel motion-tracking system and algorithms that automatically evaluate trainee performance of a pediatric laparoscopic suturing task. Subjects (n = 32) ranging from medical students to fellows performed two trials of intracorporeal suturing in a custom pediatric laparoscopic box trainer after watching a video of ideal performance. The motions of the tools and endoscope were recorded over time using a magnetic sensing system, and both tool grip angles were recorded using handle-mounted flex sensors. An expert rated the 63 trial videos on five domains from the Objective Structured Assessment of Technical Skill (OSATS), yielding summed scores from 5 to 20. Motion data from each trial were processed to calculate 280 features. We used regularized least squares regression to identify the most predictive features from different subsets of the motion data and then built six regression tree models that predict summed OSATS score. Model accuracy was evaluated via leave-one-subject-out cross-validation. The model that used all sensor data streams performed best, achieving 71% accuracy at predicting summed scores within 2 points, 89% accuracy within 4, and a correlation of 0.85 with human ratings. 59% of the rounded average OSATS score predictions were perfect, and 100% were within 1 point. This model employed 87 features, including none based on completion time, 77 from tool tip motion, 3 from tool tip visibility, and 7 from grip angle. Our novel hardware and software automatically rated previously unseen trials with summed OSATS scores that closely match human expert ratings. Such a system facilitates more feedback-intensive surgical training and may yield insights into the fundamental components of surgical skill.

Longitudinal analysis of pulmonary dysfunction in the initial years of employment in the grain industry.

PubMed

Olfert, S M; Pahwa, P; Dosman, J A

2005-11-01

The negative health effects of exposure to grain dust have previously been examined, but few studies have observed the effects on newly hired employees. Young grain workers are of interest because changes in pulmonary function may occur after a short duration of employment, and because older grain workers may represent a survivor population. The New Grain Workers Study (NGWS), a longitudinal study of 299 newly hired male grain industry workers, was conducted between 1980 and 1985. The objectives were to determine the effects of employment in the grain industry on pulmonary function. Pre-employment physical examinations and pulmonary function tests were conducted on subjects at the Division of Respiratory Medicine, Department of Medicine, Royal University Hospital, University of Saskatchewan. The Grain Dust Medical Surveillance Program (GDMSP) was a Labour Canada program that began in 1978. All subjects were grain workers employed in the grain industry in Saskatchewan. All subjects completed a respiratory symptoms questionnaire and underwent pulmonary function testing. Baseline observations were recorded every three years between 1978 and 1993. Data were available on 2184 grain workers. Generalized estimating equations were used to fit marginal and transitional multivariable regression models to determine the effects of grain dust exposure on pulmonary function. Marginal and transitional models were then compared. Height, exposure weeks, and previous FVC were predictive of FVC in the NGWS, while exposure weeks and previous FEV1 were predictive of FEV1. These models, as well as a transitional regression model built using the GDMSP data, were used to compute predicted mean annual decline inpulmonary function. Non-smoking grain workers in the NGWS had the highest pulmonary function test values, but also had the greatest predicted annual decline in pulmonary function. Ever-smoking grain workers in the GDMSP had the lowest pulmonary function test values. Non-smoking grain workers in the GDMSP had the least predicted annual decline in pulmonary function.

Spatial variability in levels of benzene, formaldehyde, and total benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene and xylenes in New York City: a land-use regression study.

PubMed

Kheirbek, Iyad; Johnson, Sarah; Ross, Zev; Pezeshki, Grant; Ito, Kazuhiko; Eisl, Holger; Matte, Thomas

2012-07-31

Hazardous air pollutant exposures are common in urban areas contributing to increased risk of cancer and other adverse health outcomes. While recent analyses indicate that New York City residents experience significantly higher cancer risks attributable to hazardous air pollutant exposures than the United States as a whole, limited data exist to assess intra-urban variability in air toxics exposures. To assess intra-urban spatial variability in exposures to common hazardous air pollutants, street-level air sampling for volatile organic compounds and aldehydes was conducted at 70 sites throughout New York City during the spring of 2011. Land-use regression models were developed using a subset of 59 sites and validated against the remaining 11 sites to describe the relationship between concentrations of benzene, total BTEX (benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, xylenes) and formaldehyde to indicators of local sources, adjusting for temporal variation. Total BTEX levels exhibited the most spatial variability, followed by benzene and formaldehyde (coefficient of variation of temporally adjusted measurements of 0.57, 0.35, 0.22, respectively). Total roadway length within 100 m, traffic signal density within 400 m of monitoring sites, and an indicator of temporal variation explained 65% of the total variability in benzene while 70% of the total variability in BTEX was accounted for by traffic signal density within 450 m, density of permitted solvent-use industries within 500 m, and an indicator of temporal variation. Measures of temporal variation, traffic signal density within 400 m, road length within 100 m, and interior building area within 100 m (indicator of heating fuel combustion) predicted 83% of the total variability of formaldehyde. The models built with the modeling subset were found to predict concentrations well, predicting 62% to 68% of monitored values at validation sites. Traffic and point source emissions cause substantial variation in street-level exposures to common toxic volatile organic compounds in New York City. Land-use regression models were successfully developed for benzene, formaldehyde, and total BTEX using spatial indicators of on-road vehicle emissions and emissions from stationary sources. These estimates will improve the understanding of health effects of individual pollutants in complex urban pollutant mixtures and inform local air quality improvement efforts that reduce disparities in exposure.

Analysis and comparison of safety models using average daily, average hourly, and microscopic traffic.

PubMed

Wang, Ling; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed; Wang, Xuesong; Yu, Rongjie

2018-02-01

There have been plenty of traffic safety studies based on average daily traffic (ADT), average hourly traffic (AHT), or microscopic traffic at 5 min intervals. Nevertheless, not enough research has compared the performance of these three types of safety studies, and seldom of previous studies have intended to find whether the results of one type of study is transferable to the other two studies. First, this study built three models: a Bayesian Poisson-lognormal model to estimate the daily crash frequency using ADT, a Bayesian Poisson-lognormal model to estimate the hourly crash frequency using AHT, and a Bayesian logistic regression model for the real-time safety analysis using microscopic traffic. The model results showed that the crash contributing factors found by different models were comparable but not the same. Four variables, i.e., the logarithm of volume, the standard deviation of speed, the logarithm of segment length, and the existence of diverge segment, were positively significant in the three models. Additionally, weaving segments experienced higher daily and hourly crash frequencies than merge and basic segments. Then, each of the ADT-based, AHT-based, and real-time models was used to estimate safety conditions at different levels: daily and hourly, meanwhile, the real-time model was also used in 5 min intervals. The results uncovered that the ADT- and AHT-based safety models performed similar in predicting daily and hourly crash frequencies, and the real-time safety model was able to provide hourly crash frequency. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Interpretation of commonly used statistical regression models.

PubMed

Kasza, Jessica; Wolfe, Rory

2014-01-01

A review of some regression models commonly used in respiratory health applications is provided in this article. Simple linear regression, multiple linear regression, logistic regression and ordinal logistic regression are considered. The focus of this article is on the interpretation of the regression coefficients of each model, which are illustrated through the application of these models to a respiratory health research study. © 2013 The Authors. Respirology © 2013 Asian Pacific Society of Respirology.

Development of a 3D Underground Cadastral System with Indoor Mapping for As-Built BIM: The Case Study of Gangnam Subway Station in Korea.

PubMed

Kim, Sangmin; Kim, Jeonghyun; Jung, Jaehoon; Heo, Joon

2015-12-09

The cadastral system provides land ownership information by registering and representing land boundaries on a map. The current cadastral system in Korea, however, focuses mainly on the management of 2D land-surface boundaries. It is not yet possible to provide efficient or reliable land administration, as this 2D system cannot support or manage land information on 3D properties (including architectures and civil infrastructures) for both above-ground and underground facilities. A geometrical model of the 3D parcel, therefore, is required for registration of 3D properties. This paper, considering the role of the cadastral system, proposes a framework for a 3D underground cadastral system that can register various types of 3D underground properties using indoor mapping for as-built Building Information Modeling (BIM). The implementation consists of four phases: (1) geometric modeling of a real underground infrastructure using terrestrial laser scanning data; (2) implementation of as-built BIM based on geometric modeling results; (3) accuracy assessment for created as-built BIM using reference points acquired by total station; and (4) creation of three types of 3D underground cadastral map to represent underground properties. The experimental results, based on indoor mapping for as-built BIM, show that the proposed framework for a 3D underground cadastral system is able to register the rights, responsibilities, and restrictions corresponding to the 3D underground properties. In this way, clearly identifying the underground physical situation enables more reliable and effective decision-making in all aspects of the national land administration system.

Design an optimum safety policy for personnel safety management - A system dynamic approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Balaji, P.

2014-10-06

Personnel safety management (PSM) ensures that employee's work conditions are healthy and safe by various proactive and reactive approaches. Nowadays it is a complex phenomenon because of increasing dynamic nature of organisations which results in an increase of accidents. An important part of accident prevention is to understand the existing system properly and make safety strategies for that system. System dynamics modelling appears to be an appropriate methodology to explore and make strategy for PSM. Many system dynamics models of industrial systems have been built entirely for specific host firms. This thesis illustrates an alternative approach. The generic system dynamicsmore » model of Personnel safety management was developed and tested in a host firm. The model was undergone various structural, behavioural and policy tests. The utility and effectiveness of model was further explored through modelling a safety scenario. In order to create effective safety policy under resource constraint, DOE (Design of experiment) was used. DOE uses classic designs, namely, fractional factorials and central composite designs. It used to make second order regression equation which serve as an objective function. That function was optimized under budget constraint and optimum value used for safety policy which shown greatest improvement in overall PSM. The outcome of this research indicates that personnel safety management model has the capability for acting as instruction tool to improve understanding of safety management and also as an aid to policy making.« less

Successful treatment algorithm for evaluation of early pregnancy after in vitro fertilization.

PubMed

Cookingham, Lisa Marii; Goossen, Rachel P; Sparks, Amy E T; Van Voorhis, Bradley J; Duran, Eyup Hakan

2015-10-01

To evaluate a prospectively implemented clinical algorithm for early identification of ectopic pregnancy (EP) and heterotopic pregnancy (HP) after assisted reproductive technology (ART). Analysis of prospectively collected data. Academic medical center. All ART-conceived pregnancies between January 1995 and June 2013. Early pregnancy monitoring via clinical algorithm with all pregnancies screened using human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) levels and reported symptoms, with subsequent early ultrasound evaluation if hCG levels were abnormal or if the patient reported pain or vaginal bleeding. Algorithmic efficiency for diagnosis of EP and HP and their subsequent clinical outcomes using a binary forward stepwise logistic regression model built to determine predictors of early pregnancy failure. Of the 3,904 pregnancies included, the incidence of EP and HP was 0.77% and 0.46%, respectively. The algorithm selected 96.7% and 83.3% of pregnancies diagnosed with EP and HP, respectively, for early ultrasound evaluation, leading to earlier treatment and resolution. Logistic regression revealed that first hCG, second hCG, hCG slope, age, pain, and vaginal bleeding were all independent predictors of early pregnancy failure after ART. Our clinical algorithm for early pregnancy evaluation after ART is effective for identification and prompt intervention of EP and HP without significant over- or misdiagnosis, and avoids the potential catastrophic morbidity associated with delayed diagnosis. Copyright © 2015 American Society for Reproductive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Associations between the Quality of the Residential Built Environment and Pregnancy Outcomes among Women in North Carolina

PubMed Central

Messer, Lynne C.; Kroeger, Gretchen L.

2011-01-01

Background: The built environment, a key component of environmental health, may be an important contributor to health disparities, particularly for reproductive health outcomes. Objective: In this study we investigated the relationship between seven indices of residential built environment quality and adverse reproductive outcomes for the City of Durham, North Carolina (USA). Methods: We surveyed approximately 17,000 residential tax parcels in central Durham, assessing > 50 individual variables on each. These data, collected using direct observation, were combined with tax assessor, public safety, and U.S. Census data to construct seven indices representing important domains of the residential built environment: housing damage, property disorder, security measures, tenure (owner or renter occupied), vacancy, crime count, and nuisance count. Fixed-slope random-intercept multilevel models estimated the association between the residential built environment and five adverse birth outcomes. Models were adjusted for maternal characteristics and clustered at the primary adjacency community unit, defined as the index block, plus all adjacent blocks that share any portion of a line segment (block boundary) or vertex. Results: Five built environment indices (housing damage, property disorder, tenure, vacancy, and nuisance count) were associated with each of the five outcomes in the unadjusted context: preterm birth, small for gestational age (SGA), low birth weight (LBW), continuous birth weight, and birth weight percentile for gestational age (BWPGA; sex-specific birth weight distributions for infants delivered at each gestational age using National Center for Health Statistics referent births for 2000–2004). However, some estimates were attenuated after adjustment. In models adjusted for individual-level covariates, housing damage remained statistically significantly associated with SGA, birth weight, and BWPGA. Conclusion: This work suggests a real and meaningful relationship between the quality of the residential built environment and birth outcomes, which we argue are a good measure of general community health. PMID:22138639

Built-up Land Expansion in Urban China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Yi; Chen, Zhigang; Huang, Xianjin

2017-04-01

Since the implementation of the reform and opening-up, rapid expansion of built-up land has caused a rapid reduction of arable land. The Ministry of Land and Resources of the People' s Republic of China has strengthened the management of built-up land through the basic arable land protection and the quota allocation of built-up land to control the urban sprawl. In addition, the general land use planning and the annual land use plan have been used to further ensure the effectiveness of land use management and control. However, the trend of built-up land expansion has not been effectively restrained. The built-up land expansion increased from 31.92 × 106 hm2 in 2005 to 38.89 × 106 hm2 in 2012. The rapid expansion of built-up land has been the major feature of land use changes in China and has led to built-up land vacancy and inefficient land use. This paper used a Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) model to analyze the changes in built-up land efficiency in 336 cities in China from 2005 to 2012 during the implementation of National General Land Use Plan (2006-2020) (NGLUP). The results showed that the built-up land input-output efficiency of most cities declined, and more than half of the cities had excessive inputs of built-up land. Even in the most developed region of China, the built-up land efficiency was relatively low. The paper argues that the NGLUP failed to control the expansion of built-up land and to promote intensive land use. The allocation of built-up land designated by the Plan was not reasonable, and economic development has greatly relied on land inputs, which need to be improved. The paper finally suggests that the built-up land indices should be appropriately directed toward economically underdeveloped regions in central and western China, and the establishment of a withdrawal mechanism for inefficient land would better promote the efficient allocation of built-up land.

Built environment and diabetes

PubMed Central

Pasala, Sudhir Kumar; Rao, Allam Appa; Sridhar, G. R.

2010-01-01

Development of type 2 diabetes mellitus is influenced by built environment, which is, ‘the environments that are modified by humans, including homes, schools, workplaces, highways, urban sprawls, accessibility to amenities, leisure, and pollution.’ Built environment contributes to diabetes through access to physical activity and through stress, by affecting the sleep cycle. With globalization, there is a possibility that western environmental models may be replicated in developing countries such as India, where the underlying genetic predisposition makes them particularly susceptible to diabetes. Here we review published information on the relationship between built environment and diabetes, so that appropriate modifications can be incorporated to reduce the risk of developing diabetes mellitus. PMID:20535308

Understanding the Independent and Joint Associations of the Home and Workplace Built Environments on Cardiorespiratory Fitness and Body Mass Index

PubMed Central

Hoehner, Christine M.; Allen, Peg; Barlow, Carolyn E.; Marx, Christine M.; Brownson, Ross C.; Schootman, Mario

2013-01-01

This observational study examined the associations of built environment features around the home and workplace with cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) based on a treadmill test and body mass index (BMI) (weight (kg)/height (m)2). The study included 8,857 adults aged 20–88 years who completed a preventive medical examination in 2000–2007 while living in 12 Texas counties. Analyses examining workplace neighborhood characteristics included a subset of 4,734 participants. Built environment variables were derived around addresses by using geographic information systems. Models were adjusted for individual-level and census block group–level demographics and socioeconomic status, smoking, BMI (in CRF models), and all other home or workplace built environment variables. CRF was associated with higher intersection density, higher number of private exercise facilities around the home and workplace, larger area of vegetation around the home, and shorter distance to the closest city center. Aside from vegetation, these same built environment features around the home were also associated with BMI. Participants who lived and worked in neighborhoods in the lowest tertiles for intersection density and the number of private exercise facilities had lower CRF and higher BMI values than participants who lived and worked in higher tertiles for these variables. This study contributes new evidence to suggest that built environment features around homes and workplaces may affect health. PMID:23942215

The built environment and alcohol consumption in urban neighborhoods.

PubMed

Bernstein, Kyle T; Galea, Sandro; Ahern, Jennifer; Tracy, Melissa; Vlahov, David

2007-12-01

To examine the relations between characteristics of the neighborhood built environment and recent alcohol use. We recruited participants through a random digit dial telephone survey of New York City (NYC) residents. Alcohol consumption was assessed using a structured interview. All respondents were assigned to neighborhood of residence. Data on the internal and external built environment in 59 NYC neighborhoods were collected from archival sources. Multilevel models were used to assess the adjusted relations between features of the built environment and alcohol use. Of the 1355 respondents, 40% reported any alcohol consumption in the past 30 days, and 3% reported more than five drinks in one sitting (heavy drinking) in the past 30 days. Few characteristics of the built environment were associated with any alcohol use in the past 30 days. However, several features of the internal and external built environment were associated with recent heavy drinking. After adjustment, persons living in neighborhoods characterized by poorer features of the built environment were up to 150% more likely to report heavy drinking in the last 30 days compared to persons living in neighborhoods characterized by a better built environment. Quality of the neighborhood built environment may be associated with heavy alcohol consumption in urban populations, independent of individual characteristics. The role of the residential environment as a determinant of alcohol abuse warrants further examination.

A new approach to correct the QT interval for changes in heart rate using a nonparametric regression model in beagle dogs.

PubMed

Watanabe, Hiroyuki; Miyazaki, Hiroyasu

2006-01-01

Over- and/or under-correction of QT intervals for changes in heart rate may lead to misleading conclusions and/or masking the potential of a drug to prolong the QT interval. This study examines a nonparametric regression model (Loess Smoother) to adjust the QT interval for differences in heart rate, with an improved fitness over a wide range of heart rates. 240 sets of (QT, RR) observations collected from each of 8 conscious and non-treated beagle dogs were used as the materials for investigation. The fitness of the nonparametric regression model to the QT-RR relationship was compared with four models (individual linear regression, common linear regression, and Bazett's and Fridericia's correlation models) with reference to Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC). Residuals were visually assessed. The bias-corrected AIC of the nonparametric regression model was the best of the models examined in this study. Although the parametric models did not fit, the nonparametric regression model improved the fitting at both fast and slow heart rates. The nonparametric regression model is the more flexible method compared with the parametric method. The mathematical fit for linear regression models was unsatisfactory at both fast and slow heart rates, while the nonparametric regression model showed significant improvement at all heart rates in beagle dogs.

Determinants of isocyanate exposures in auto body repair and refinishing shops.

PubMed

Woskie, S R; Sparer, J; Gore, R J; Stowe, M; Bello, D; Liu, Y; Youngs, F; Redlich, C; Eisen, E; Cullen, M

2004-07-01

As part of the Survey of Painters and Repairers of Auto bodies by Yale (SPRAY), the determinants of isocyanate exposure in auto body repair shops were evaluated. Measurements (n = 380) of hexamethylene diisocyanate-based monomer and polyisocyanate and isophorone diisocyanate-based polyisocyanate were collected from 33 auto body shops. The median total reactive isocyanate concentrations expressed as mass concentration of the NCO functional group were: 206 microg NCO/m3 for spray operations; 0.93 microg NCO/m3 for samples collected in the vicinity of spray operations done on the shop floor (near spray); 0.05 microg NCO/m3 for office or other shop areas adjacent to spray areas (workplace background); 0.17 microg NCO/m3 for paint mixing and gun cleaning operations (mixing); 0.27 microg NCO/m3 for sanding operations. Exposure determinants for the sample NCO mass load were identified using linear regression, tobit regression and logistic regression models. For spray samples in a spray booth the significant determinants were the number of milliliters of NCO applied, the gallons of clear coat used by the shop each month and the type of spray booth used (custom built crossdraft, prefabricated crossdraft or downdraft/semi-downdraft). For near spray (bystander) samples, outdoor temperature >65 degrees F (18 degrees C) and shop size >5000 feet2 (465 m2) were significant determinants of exposure levels. For workplace background samples the shop annual income was the most important determinant. For sanding samples, the shop annual income and outdoor temperature >65 degrees F (18 degrees C) were the most significant determinants. Identification of these key exposure determinants will be useful in targeting exposure evaluation and control efforts to reduce isocyanate exposures.

[Estimating individual tree aboveground biomass of the mid-subtropical forest using airborne LiDAR technology].

PubMed

Liu, Feng; Tan, Chang; Lei, Pi-Feng

2014-11-01

Taking Wugang forest farm in Xuefeng Mountain as the research object, using the airborne light detection and ranging (LiDAR) data under leaf-on condition and field data of concomitant plots, this paper assessed the ability of using LiDAR technology to estimate aboveground biomass of the mid-subtropical forest. A semi-automated individual tree LiDAR cloud point segmentation was obtained by using condition random fields and optimization methods. Spatial structure, waveform characteristics and topography were calculated as LiDAR metrics from the segmented objects. Then statistical models between aboveground biomass from field data and these LiDAR metrics were built. The individual tree recognition rates were 93%, 86% and 60% for coniferous, broadleaf and mixed forests, respectively. The adjusted coefficients of determination (R(2)adj) and the root mean squared errors (RMSE) for the three types of forest were 0.83, 0.81 and 0.74, and 28.22, 29.79 and 32.31 t · hm(-2), respectively. The estimation capability of model based on canopy geometric volume, tree percentile height, slope and waveform characteristics was much better than that of traditional regression model based on tree height. Therefore, LiDAR metrics from individual tree could facilitate better performance in biomass estimation.

Development of hardware system using temperature and vibration maintenance models integration concepts for conventional machines monitoring: a case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adeyeri, Michael Kanisuru; Mpofu, Khumbulani; Kareem, Buliaminu

2016-03-01

This article describes the integration of temperature and vibration models for maintenance monitoring of conventional machinery parts in which their optimal and best functionalities are affected by abnormal changes in temperature and vibration values thereby resulting in machine failures, machines breakdown, poor quality of products, inability to meeting customers' demand, poor inventory control and just to mention a few. The work entails the use of temperature and vibration sensors as monitoring probes programmed in microcontroller using C language. The developed hardware consists of vibration sensor of ADXL345, temperature sensor of AD594/595 of type K thermocouple, microcontroller, graphic liquid crystal display, real time clock, etc. The hardware is divided into two: one is based at the workstation (majorly meant to monitor machines behaviour) and the other at the base station (meant to receive transmission of machines information sent from the workstation), working cooperatively for effective functionalities. The resulting hardware built was calibrated, tested using model verification and validated through principles pivoted on least square and regression analysis approach using data read from the gear boxes of extruding and cutting machines used for polyethylene bag production. The results got therein confirmed related correlation existing between time, vibration and temperature, which are reflections of effective formulation of the developed concept.

Estimation of local extreme suspended sediment concentrations in California Rivers.

PubMed

Tramblay, Yves; Saint-Hilaire, André; Ouarda, Taha B M J; Moatar, Florentina; Hecht, Barry

2010-09-01

The total amount of suspended sediment load carried by a stream during a year is usually transported during one or several extreme events related to high river flow and intense rainfall, leading to very high suspended sediment concentrations (SSCs). In this study quantiles of SSC derived from annual maximums and the 99th percentile of SSC series are considered to be estimated locally in a site-specific approach using regional information. Analyses of relationships between physiographic characteristics and the selected indicators were undertaken using the localities of 5-km radius draining of each sampling site. Multiple regression models were built to test the regional estimation for these indicators of suspended sediment transport. To assess the accuracy of the estimates, a Jack-Knife re-sampling procedure was used to compute the relative bias and root mean square error of the models. Results show that for the 19 stations considered in California, the extreme SSCs can be estimated with 40-60% uncertainty, depending on the presence of flow regulation in the basin. This modelling approach is likely to prove functional in other Mediterranean climate watersheds since they appear useful in California, where geologic, climatic, physiographic, and land-use conditions are highly variable. Copyright 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Invited Commentary: Antecedents of Obesity—Analysis, Interpretation, and Use of Longitudinal Data

PubMed Central

Gillman, Matthew W.; Kleinman, Ken

2007-01-01

The obesity epidemic causes misery and death. Most epidemiologists accept the hypothesis that characteristics of the early stages of human development have lifelong influences on obesity-related health outcomes. Unfortunately, there is a dearth of data of sufficient scope and individual history to help unravel the associations of prenatal, postnatal, and childhood factors with adult obesity and health outcomes. Here the authors discuss analytic methods, the interpretation of models, and the use to which such rare and valuable data may be put in developing interventions to combat the epidemic. For example, analytic methods such as quantile and multinomial logistic regression can describe the effects on body mass index range rather than just its mean; structural equation models may allow comparison of the contributions of different factors at different periods in the life course. Interpretation of the data and model construction is complex, and it requires careful consideration of the biologic plausibility and statistical interpretation of putative causal factors. The goals of discovering modifiable determinants of obesity during the prenatal, postnatal, and childhood periods must be kept in sight, and analyses should be built to facilitate them. Ultimately, interventions in these factors may help prevent obesity-related adverse health outcomes for future generations. PMID:17490988

[Application of simulated annealing method and neural network on optimizing soil sampling schemes based on road distribution].

PubMed

Han, Zong-wei; Huang, Wei; Luo, Yun; Zhang, Chun-di; Qi, Da-cheng

2015-03-01

Taking the soil organic matter in eastern Zhongxiang County, Hubei Province, as a research object, thirteen sample sets from different regions were arranged surrounding the road network, the spatial configuration of which was optimized by the simulated annealing approach. The topographic factors of these thirteen sample sets, including slope, plane curvature, profile curvature, topographic wetness index, stream power index and sediment transport index, were extracted by the terrain analysis. Based on the results of optimization, a multiple linear regression model with topographic factors as independent variables was built. At the same time, a multilayer perception model on the basis of neural network approach was implemented. The comparison between these two models was carried out then. The results revealed that the proposed approach was practicable in optimizing soil sampling scheme. The optimal configuration was capable of gaining soil-landscape knowledge exactly, and the accuracy of optimal configuration was better than that of original samples. This study designed a sampling configuration to study the soil attribute distribution by referring to the spatial layout of road network, historical samples, and digital elevation data, which provided an effective means as well as a theoretical basis for determining the sampling configuration and displaying spatial distribution of soil organic matter with low cost and high efficiency.

Use of laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy for the determination of polycarbonate (PC) and acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene (ABS) concentrations in PC/ABS plastics from e-waste.

PubMed

Costa, Vinicius Câmara; Aquino, Francisco Wendel Batista; Paranhos, Caio Marcio; Pereira-Filho, Edenir Rodrigues

2017-12-01

Due to the continual increase in waste generated from electronic devices, the management of plastics, which represents between 10 and 30% by weight of waste electrical and electronic equipment (WEEE or e-waste), becomes indispensable in terms of environmental and economic impacts. Considering the importance of acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene (ABS), polycarbonate (PC), and their blends in the electronics and other industries, this study presents a new application of laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) for the fast and direct determination of PC and ABS concentrations in blends of these plastics obtained from samples of e-waste. From the LIBS spectra acquired for the PC/ABS blend, multivariate calibration models were built using partial least squares (PLS) regression. In general, it was possible to infer that the relative errors between the theoretical or reference and predicted values for the spiked samples were lower than 10%. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fish measurement using Android smart phone: the example of swamp eel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Baisong; Fu, Zhuo; Ouyang, Haiying; Sun, Yingze; Ge, Changshui; Hu, Jing

The body length and weight are critical physiological parameters for fishes, especially eel-like fishes like swamp eel(Monopterusalbus).Fast and accurate measuring of body length is significant for swamp eel culturing as well as its resource investigation and protection. This paper presents an Android smart phone-based photogrammetry technology for measuring and estimating the length and weight of swamp eel. This method utilizes the feature that the ratio of lengths of two objects within an image is equal to that of in reality to measure the length of swamp eels. And then, it estimates the weight via a pre-built length-weight regression model. Analysis and experimental results have indicated that this method is a fast and accurate method for length and weight measurements of swamp eel. The cross-validation results shows that the RMSE (root-mean-square error) of total length measurement of swamp eel is0.4 cm, and the RMSE of weight estimation is 11 grams.

Changed morphology and mechanical properties of cancellous bone in the mandibular condyles of edentate people.

PubMed

Giesen, E B W; Ding, M; Dalstra, M; van Eijden, T M G J

2004-03-01

Since edentate subjects have a reduced masticatory function, it can be expected that the morphology of the cancellous bone of their mandibular condyles has changed according to the altered mechanical environment. In the present study, the morphology of cylindrical cancellous bone specimens of the mandibular condyles of edentate subjects (n = 25) was compared with that of dentate subjects (n = 24) by means of micro-computed tomography and by the application of Archimedes' principle. Stiffness and strength were determined by destructive mechanical testing. Compared with dentate subjects, it appeared that, in edentate subjects, the bone was less dense and the trabecular structure was less plate-like. The regression models of stiffness and strength built from bone volume fraction and the trabecular orientation relative to the axis of the specimen were similar for both dentate and edentate subjects. This indicates that, under reduced mechanical load, the fundamental relationship between bone morphology and mechanical properties does not change.

Risk factors for acute nerve injury after total knee arthroplasty.

PubMed

Shetty, Teena; Nguyen, Joseph T; Sasaki, Mayu; Wu, Anita; Bogner, Eric; Burge, Alissa; Cogsil, Taylor; Dalal, Aashka; Halvorsen, Kristin; Cummings, Kelianne; Su, Edwin P; Lyman, Stephen

2018-06-01

In this we study identified potential risk factors for post-total knee arthroplasty (TKA) nerve injury, a catastrophic complication with a reported incidence of 0.3%-1.3%. Patients who developed post-TKA nerve injury from 1998 to 2013 were identified, and each was matched with 2 controls. A multivariable logistic regression model was built to calculate odds ratios (ORs). Sixty-five nerve injury cases were identified in 39,990 TKAs (0.16%). Females (OR 3.28, P = 0.003) and patients with history of lumbar pathology (OR 6.12, P = 0.026) were associated with increased risk of nerve injury. Tourniquet pressure < 300 mm Hg and longer duration of anesthesia may also be risk factors. Surgical planning for females and patients with lumbar pathology should be modified to mitigate their higher risk of neurologic complications after TKA. Our finding that lower tourniquet pressure was associated with higher risk of nerve injury was unexpected and requires further investigation. Muscle Nerve 57: 946-950, 2018. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Baseline Predictors for Success Following Strategy-Based Cognitive Remediation Group Training in Schizophrenia.

PubMed

Farreny, Aida; Aguado, Jaume; Corbera, Silvia; Ochoa, Susana; Huerta-Ramos, Elena; Usall, Judith

2016-08-01

Our aim was to examine predictive variables associated with the improvement in cognitive, clinical, and functional outcomes after outpatient participation in REPYFLEC strategy-based Cognitive Remediation (CR) group training. In addition, we investigated which factors might be associated with some long-lasting effects at 6 months' follow-up. Predictors of improvement after CR were studied in a sample of 29 outpatients with schizophrenia. Partial correlations were computed between targeted variables and outcomes of response to explore significant associations. Subsequently, we built linear regression models for each outcome variable and predictors of improvement. The improvement in negative symptoms at posttreatment was linked to faster performance in the Trail Making Test B. Disorganization and cognitive symptoms were related to changes in executive function at follow-up. Lower levels of positive symptoms were related to durable improvements in life skills. Levels of symptoms and cognition were associated with improvements following CR, but the pattern of resulting associations was nonspecific.

The relationship between attentional bias toward safety and driving behavior.

PubMed

Zheng, Tingting; Qu, Weina; Zhang, Kan; Ge, Yan

2016-11-01

As implicit cognitive processes garner more and more importance, studies in the fields of healthy psychology and organizational safety research have focused on attentional bias, a kind of selective allocation of attentional resources in the early stage of cognitive processing. However, few studies have explored the role of attentional bias on driving behavior. This study assessed drivers' attentional bias towards safety-related words (ABS) using the dot-probe paradigm and self-reported daily driving behaviors. The results revealed significant negative correlations between attentional bias scores and several indicators of dangerous driving. Drivers with fewer dangerous driving behaviors showed greater ABS. We also built a significant linear regression model between ABS and the total DDDI score, as well as ABS and the number of accidents. Finally, we discussed the possible mechanism underlying these associations and several limitations of our study. This study opens up a new topic for the exploration of implicit processes in driving safety research. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Near-Infrared Spectroscopy as an Analytical Process Technology for the On-Line Quantification of Water Precipitation Processes during Danhong Injection.

PubMed

Liu, Xuesong; Wu, Chunyan; Geng, Shu; Jin, Ye; Luan, Lianjun; Chen, Yong; Wu, Yongjiang

2015-01-01

This paper used near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy for the on-line quantitative monitoring of water precipitation during Danhong injection. For these NIR measurements, two fiber optic probes designed to transmit NIR radiation through a 2 mm flow cell were used to collect spectra in real-time. Partial least squares regression (PLSR) was developed as the preferred chemometrics quantitative analysis of the critical intermediate qualities: the danshensu (DSS, (R)-3, 4-dihydroxyphenyllactic acid), protocatechuic aldehyde (PA), rosmarinic acid (RA), and salvianolic acid B (SAB) concentrations. Optimized PLSR models were successfully built and used for on-line detecting of the concentrations of DSS, PA, RA, and SAB of water precipitation during Danhong injection. Besides, the information of DSS, PA, RA, and SAB concentrations would be instantly fed back to site technical personnel for control and adjustment timely. The verification experiments determined that the predicted values agreed with the actual homologic value.