Comparing lagged linear correlation, lagged regression, Granger causality, and vector autoregression for uncovering associations in EHR data.

PubMed

Levine, Matthew E; Albers, David J; Hripcsak, George

2016-01-01

Time series analysis methods have been shown to reveal clinical and biological associations in data collected in the electronic health record. We wish to develop reliable high-throughput methods for identifying adverse drug effects that are easy to implement and produce readily interpretable results. To move toward this goal, we used univariate and multivariate lagged regression models to investigate associations between twenty pairs of drug orders and laboratory measurements. Multivariate lagged regression models exhibited higher sensitivity and specificity than univariate lagged regression in the 20 examples, and incorporating autoregressive terms for labs and drugs produced more robust signals in cases of known associations among the 20 example pairings. Moreover, including inpatient admission terms in the model attenuated the signals for some cases of unlikely associations, demonstrating how multivariate lagged regression models' explicit handling of context-based variables can provide a simple way to probe for health-care processes that confound analyses of EHR data.

Estimating extent of mortality associated with the Douglas-fir beetle in the Central and Northern Rockies

Treesearch

Jose F. Negron; Willis C. Schaupp; Kenneth E. Gibson; John Anhold; Dawn Hansen; Ralph Thier; Phil Mocettini

1999-01-01

Data collected from Douglas-fir stands infected by the Douglas-fir beetle in Wyoming, Montana, Idaho, and Utah, were used to develop models to estimate amount of mortality in terms of basal area killed. Models were built using stepwise linear regression and regression tree approaches. Linear regression models using initial Douglas-fir basal area were built for all...

SPSS macros to compare any two fitted values from a regression model.

PubMed

Weaver, Bruce; Dubois, Sacha

2012-12-01

In regression models with first-order terms only, the coefficient for a given variable is typically interpreted as the change in the fitted value of Y for a one-unit increase in that variable, with all other variables held constant. Therefore, each regression coefficient represents the difference between two fitted values of Y. But the coefficients represent only a fraction of the possible fitted value comparisons that might be of interest to researchers. For many fitted value comparisons that are not captured by any of the regression coefficients, common statistical software packages do not provide the standard errors needed to compute confidence intervals or carry out statistical tests-particularly in more complex models that include interactions, polynomial terms, or regression splines. We describe two SPSS macros that implement a matrix algebra method for comparing any two fitted values from a regression model. The !OLScomp and !MLEcomp macros are for use with models fitted via ordinary least squares and maximum likelihood estimation, respectively. The output from the macros includes the standard error of the difference between the two fitted values, a 95% confidence interval for the difference, and a corresponding statistical test with its p-value.

Statistical downscaling of precipitation using long short-term memory recurrent neural networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Misra, Saptarshi; Sarkar, Sudeshna; Mitra, Pabitra

2017-11-01

Hydrological impacts of global climate change on regional scale are generally assessed by downscaling large-scale climatic variables, simulated by General Circulation Models (GCMs), to regional, small-scale hydrometeorological variables like precipitation, temperature, etc. In this study, we propose a new statistical downscaling model based on Recurrent Neural Network with Long Short-Term Memory which captures the spatio-temporal dependencies in local rainfall. The previous studies have used several other methods such as linear regression, quantile regression, kernel regression, beta regression, and artificial neural networks. Deep neural networks and recurrent neural networks have been shown to be highly promising in modeling complex and highly non-linear relationships between input and output variables in different domains and hence we investigated their performance in the task of statistical downscaling. We have tested this model on two datasets—one on precipitation in Mahanadi basin in India and the second on precipitation in Campbell River basin in Canada. Our autoencoder coupled long short-term memory recurrent neural network model performs the best compared to other existing methods on both the datasets with respect to temporal cross-correlation, mean squared error, and capturing the extremes.

A retrospective analysis to identify the factors affecting infection in patients undergoing chemotherapy.

PubMed

Park, Ji Hyun; Kim, Hyeon-Young; Lee, Hanna; Yun, Eun Kyoung

2015-12-01

This study compares the performance of the logistic regression and decision tree analysis methods for assessing the risk factors for infection in cancer patients undergoing chemotherapy. The subjects were 732 cancer patients who were receiving chemotherapy at K university hospital in Seoul, Korea. The data were collected between March 2011 and February 2013 and were processed for descriptive analysis, logistic regression and decision tree analysis using the IBM SPSS Statistics 19 and Modeler 15.1 programs. The most common risk factors for infection in cancer patients receiving chemotherapy were identified as alkylating agents, vinca alkaloid and underlying diabetes mellitus. The logistic regression explained 66.7% of the variation in the data in terms of sensitivity and 88.9% in terms of specificity. The decision tree analysis accounted for 55.0% of the variation in the data in terms of sensitivity and 89.0% in terms of specificity. As for the overall classification accuracy, the logistic regression explained 88.0% and the decision tree analysis explained 87.2%. The logistic regression analysis showed a higher degree of sensitivity and classification accuracy. Therefore, logistic regression analysis is concluded to be the more effective and useful method for establishing an infection prediction model for patients undergoing chemotherapy. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mean centering, multicollinearity, and moderators in multiple regression: The reconciliation redux.

PubMed

Iacobucci, Dawn; Schneider, Matthew J; Popovich, Deidre L; Bakamitsos, Georgios A

2017-02-01

In this article, we attempt to clarify our statements regarding the effects of mean centering. In a multiple regression with predictors A, B, and A × B (where A × B serves as an interaction term), mean centering A and B prior to computing the product term can clarify the regression coefficients (which is good) and the overall model fit R 2 will remain undisturbed (which is also good).

Comparison of Neural Network and Linear Regression Models in Statistically Predicting Mental and Physical Health Status of Breast Cancer Survivors

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-07-15

Long-term effects on cancer survivors’ quality of life of physical training versus physical training combined with cognitive-behavioral therapy ...COMPARISON OF NEURAL NETWORK AND LINEAR REGRESSION MODELS IN STATISTICALLY PREDICTING MENTAL AND PHYSICAL HEALTH STATUS OF BREAST...34Comparison of Neural Network and Linear Regression Models in Statistically Predicting Mental and Physical Health Status of Breast Cancer Survivors

The effect of occlusion on the semantics of projective spatial terms: a case study in grounding language in perception.

PubMed

Kelleher, John D; Ross, Robert J; Sloan, Colm; Mac Namee, Brian

2011-02-01

Although data-driven spatial template models provide a practical and cognitively motivated mechanism for characterizing spatial term meaning, the influence of perceptual rather than solely geometric and functional properties has yet to be systematically investigated. In the light of this, in this paper, we investigate the effects of the perceptual phenomenon of object occlusion on the semantics of projective terms. We did this by conducting a study to test whether object occlusion had a noticeable effect on the acceptance values assigned to projective terms with respect to a 2.5-dimensional visual stimulus. Based on the data collected, a regression model was constructed and presented. Subsequent analysis showed that the regression model that included the occlusion factor outperformed an adaptation of Regier & Carlson's well-regarded AVS model for that same spatial configuration.

Developing a predictive tropospheric ozone model for Tabriz

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khatibi, Rahman; Naghipour, Leila; Ghorbani, Mohammad A.; Smith, Michael S.; Karimi, Vahid; Farhoudi, Reza; Delafrouz, Hadi; Arvanaghi, Hadi

2013-04-01

Predictive ozone models are becoming indispensable tools by providing a capability for pollution alerts to serve people who are vulnerable to the risks. We have developed a tropospheric ozone prediction capability for Tabriz, Iran, by using the following five modeling strategies: three regression-type methods: Multiple Linear Regression (MLR), Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), and Gene Expression Programming (GEP); and two auto-regression-type models: Nonlinear Local Prediction (NLP) to implement chaos theory and Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models. The regression-type modeling strategies explain the data in terms of: temperature, solar radiation, dew point temperature, and wind speed, by regressing present ozone values to their past values. The ozone time series are available at various time intervals, including hourly intervals, from August 2010 to March 2011. The results for MLR, ANN and GEP models are not overly good but those produced by NLP and ARIMA are promising for the establishing a forecasting capability.

Synthesis of linear regression coefficients by recovering the within-study covariance matrix from summary statistics.

PubMed

Yoneoka, Daisuke; Henmi, Masayuki

2017-06-01

Recently, the number of regression models has dramatically increased in several academic fields. However, within the context of meta-analysis, synthesis methods for such models have not been developed in a commensurate trend. One of the difficulties hindering the development is the disparity in sets of covariates among literature models. If the sets of covariates differ across models, interpretation of coefficients will differ, thereby making it difficult to synthesize them. Moreover, previous synthesis methods for regression models, such as multivariate meta-analysis, often have problems because covariance matrix of coefficients (i.e. within-study correlations) or individual patient data are not necessarily available. This study, therefore, proposes a brief explanation regarding a method to synthesize linear regression models under different covariate sets by using a generalized least squares method involving bias correction terms. Especially, we also propose an approach to recover (at most) threecorrelations of covariates, which is required for the calculation of the bias term without individual patient data. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of the diarrhea alleviation through zinc and oral rehydration therapy (DAZT) program in rural Gujarat India: an application of the net-benefit regression framework.

PubMed

Shillcutt, Samuel D; LeFevre, Amnesty E; Fischer-Walker, Christa L; Taneja, Sunita; Black, Robert E; Mazumder, Sarmila

2017-01-01

This study evaluates the cost-effectiveness of the DAZT program for scaling up treatment of acute child diarrhea in Gujarat India using a net-benefit regression framework. Costs were calculated from societal and caregivers' perspectives and effectiveness was assessed in terms of coverage of zinc and both zinc and Oral Rehydration Salt. Regression models were tested in simple linear regression, with a specified set of covariates, and with a specified set of covariates and interaction terms using linear regression with endogenous treatment effects was used as the reference case. The DAZT program was cost-effective with over 95% certainty above $5.50 and $7.50 per appropriately treated child in the unadjusted and adjusted models respectively, with specifications including interaction terms being cost-effective with 85-97% certainty. Findings from this study should be combined with other evidence when considering decisions to scale up programs such as the DAZT program to promote the use of ORS and zinc to treat child diarrhea.

Optimization of Regression Models of Experimental Data Using Confirmation Points

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ulbrich, N.

2010-01-01

A new search metric is discussed that may be used to better assess the predictive capability of different math term combinations during the optimization of a regression model of experimental data. The new search metric can be determined for each tested math term combination if the given experimental data set is split into two subsets. The first subset consists of data points that are only used to determine the coefficients of the regression model. The second subset consists of confirmation points that are exclusively used to test the regression model. The new search metric value is assigned after comparing two values that describe the quality of the fit of each subset. The first value is the standard deviation of the PRESS residuals of the data points. The second value is the standard deviation of the response residuals of the confirmation points. The greater of the two values is used as the new search metric value. This choice guarantees that both standard deviations are always less or equal to the value that is used during the optimization. Experimental data from the calibration of a wind tunnel strain-gage balance is used to illustrate the application of the new search metric. The new search metric ultimately generates an optimized regression model that was already tested at regression model independent confirmation points before it is ever used to predict an unknown response from a set of regressors.

Development of surrogate models for the prediction of the flow around an aircraft propeller

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salpigidou, Christina; Misirlis, Dimitris; Vlahostergios, Zinon; Yakinthos, Kyros

2018-05-01

In the present work, the derivation of two surrogate models (SMs) for modelling the flow around a propeller for small aircrafts is presented. Both methodologies use derived functions based on computations with the detailed propeller geometry. The computations were performed using k-ω shear stress transport for modelling turbulence. In the SMs, the modelling of the propeller was performed in a computational domain of disk-like geometry, where source terms were introduced in the momentum equations. In the first SM, the source terms were polynomial functions of swirl and thrust, mainly related to the propeller radius. In the second SM, regression analysis was used to correlate the source terms with the velocity distribution through the propeller. The proposed SMs achieved faster convergence, in relation to the detail model, by providing also results closer to the available operational data. The regression-based model was the most accurate and required less computational time for convergence.

Performance Comparison of Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome with Logistic Regression Models to Predict Sepsis in Neonates

PubMed Central

Thakur, Jyoti; Pahuja, Sharvan Kumar; Pahuja, Roop

2017-01-01

In 2005, an international pediatric sepsis consensus conference defined systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) for children <18 years of age, but excluded premature infants. In 2012, Hofer et al. investigated the predictive power of SIRS for term neonates. In this paper, we examined the accuracy of SIRS in predicting sepsis in neonates, irrespective of their gestational age (i.e., pre-term, term, and post-term). We also created two prediction models, named Model A and Model B, using binary logistic regression. Both models performed better than SIRS. We also developed an android application so that physicians can easily use Model A and Model B in real-world scenarios. The sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio (PLR) and negative likelihood ratio (NLR) in cases of SIRS were 16.15%, 95.53%, 3.61, and 0.88, respectively, whereas they were 29.17%, 97.82%, 13.36, and 0.72, respectively, in the case of Model A, and 31.25%, 97.30%, 11.56, and 0.71, respectively, in the case of Model B. All models were significant with p < 0.001. PMID:29257099

Role of subdural electrocorticography in prediction of long-term seizure outcome in epilepsy surgery

PubMed Central

Juhász, Csaba; Shah, Aashit; Sood, Sandeep; Chugani, Harry T.

2009-01-01

Since prediction of long-term seizure outcome using preoperative diagnostic modalities remains suboptimal in epilepsy surgery, we evaluated whether interictal spike frequency measures obtained from extraoperative subdural electrocorticography (ECoG) recording could predict long-term seizure outcome. This study included 61 young patients (age 0.4–23.0 years), who underwent extraoperative ECoG recording prior to cortical resection for alleviation of uncontrolled focal seizures. Patient age, frequency of preoperative seizures, neuroimaging findings, ictal and interictal ECoG measures were preoperatively obtained. The seizure outcome was prospectively measured [follow-up period: 2.5–6.4 years (mean 4.6 years)]. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses determined how well preoperative demographic and diagnostic measures predicted long-term seizure outcome. Following the initial cortical resection, Engel Class I, II, III and IV outcomes were noted in 35, 6, 12 and 7 patients, respectively. One child died due to disseminated intravascular coagulation associated with pseudomonas sepsis 2 days after surgery. Univariate regression analyses revealed that incomplete removal of seizure onset zone, higher interictal spike-frequency in the preserved cortex and incomplete removal of cortical abnormalities on neuroimaging were associated with a greater risk of failing to obtain Class I outcome. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that incomplete removal of seizure onset zone was the only independent predictor of failure to obtain Class I outcome. The goodness of regression model fit and the predictive ability of regression model were greatest in the full regression model incorporating both ictal and interictal measures [R2 0.44; Area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve: 0.81], slightly smaller in the reduced model incorporating ictal but not interictal measures (R2 0.40; Area under the ROC curve: 0.79) and slightly smaller again in the reduced model incorporating interictal but not ictal measures (R2 0.27; Area under the ROC curve: 0.77). Seizure onset zone and interictal spike frequency measures on subdural ECoG recording may both be useful in predicting the long-term seizure outcome of epilepsy surgery. Yet, the additive clinical impact of interictal spike frequency measures to predict long-term surgical outcome may be modest in the presence of ictal ECoG and neuroimaging data. PMID:19286694

Real estate value prediction using multivariate regression models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manjula, R.; Jain, Shubham; Srivastava, Sharad; Rajiv Kher, Pranav

2017-11-01

The real estate market is one of the most competitive in terms of pricing and the same tends to vary significantly based on a lot of factors, hence it becomes one of the prime fields to apply the concepts of machine learning to optimize and predict the prices with high accuracy. Therefore in this paper, we present various important features to use while predicting housing prices with good accuracy. We have described regression models, using various features to have lower Residual Sum of Squares error. While using features in a regression model some feature engineering is required for better prediction. Often a set of features (multiple regressions) or polynomial regression (applying a various set of powers in the features) is used for making better model fit. For these models are expected to be susceptible towards over fitting ridge regression is used to reduce it. This paper thus directs to the best application of regression models in addition to other techniques to optimize the result.

Regional regression models of watershed suspended-sediment discharge for the eastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roman, David C.; Vogel, Richard M.; Schwarz, Gregory E.

2012-11-01

SummaryEstimates of mean annual watershed sediment discharge, derived from long-term measurements of suspended-sediment concentration and streamflow, often are not available at locations of interest. The goal of this study was to develop multivariate regression models to enable prediction of mean annual suspended-sediment discharge from available basin characteristics useful for most ungaged river locations in the eastern United States. The models are based on long-term mean sediment discharge estimates and explanatory variables obtained from a combined dataset of 1201 US Geological Survey (USGS) stations derived from a SPAtially Referenced Regression on Watershed attributes (SPARROW) study and the Geospatial Attributes of Gages for Evaluating Streamflow (GAGES) database. The resulting regional regression models summarized for major US water resources regions 1-8, exhibited prediction R2 values ranging from 76.9% to 92.7% and corresponding average model prediction errors ranging from 56.5% to 124.3%. Results from cross-validation experiments suggest that a majority of the models will perform similarly to calibration runs. The 36-parameter regional regression models also outperformed a 16-parameter national SPARROW model of suspended-sediment discharge and indicate that mean annual sediment loads in the eastern United States generally correlates with a combination of basin area, land use patterns, seasonal precipitation, soil composition, hydrologic modification, and to a lesser extent, topography.

Regional regression models of watershed suspended-sediment discharge for the eastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Roman, David C.; Vogel, Richard M.; Schwarz, Gregory E.

2012-01-01

Estimates of mean annual watershed sediment discharge, derived from long-term measurements of suspended-sediment concentration and streamflow, often are not available at locations of interest. The goal of this study was to develop multivariate regression models to enable prediction of mean annual suspended-sediment discharge from available basin characteristics useful for most ungaged river locations in the eastern United States. The models are based on long-term mean sediment discharge estimates and explanatory variables obtained from a combined dataset of 1201 US Geological Survey (USGS) stations derived from a SPAtially Referenced Regression on Watershed attributes (SPARROW) study and the Geospatial Attributes of Gages for Evaluating Streamflow (GAGES) database. The resulting regional regression models summarized for major US water resources regions 1–8, exhibited prediction R2 values ranging from 76.9% to 92.7% and corresponding average model prediction errors ranging from 56.5% to 124.3%. Results from cross-validation experiments suggest that a majority of the models will perform similarly to calibration runs. The 36-parameter regional regression models also outperformed a 16-parameter national SPARROW model of suspended-sediment discharge and indicate that mean annual sediment loads in the eastern United States generally correlates with a combination of basin area, land use patterns, seasonal precipitation, soil composition, hydrologic modification, and to a lesser extent, topography.

Decreasing Multicollinearity: A Method for Models with Multiplicative Functions.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Smith, Kent W.; Sasaki, M. S.

1979-01-01

A method is proposed for overcoming the problem of multicollinearity in multiple regression equations where multiplicative independent terms are entered. The method is not a ridge regression solution. (JKS)

Comparison of methods for the analysis of relatively simple mediation models.

PubMed

Rijnhart, Judith J M; Twisk, Jos W R; Chinapaw, Mai J M; de Boer, Michiel R; Heymans, Martijn W

2017-09-01

Statistical mediation analysis is an often used method in trials, to unravel the pathways underlying the effect of an intervention on a particular outcome variable. Throughout the years, several methods have been proposed, such as ordinary least square (OLS) regression, structural equation modeling (SEM), and the potential outcomes framework. Most applied researchers do not know that these methods are mathematically equivalent when applied to mediation models with a continuous mediator and outcome variable. Therefore, the aim of this paper was to demonstrate the similarities between OLS regression, SEM, and the potential outcomes framework in three mediation models: 1) a crude model, 2) a confounder-adjusted model, and 3) a model with an interaction term for exposure-mediator interaction. Secondary data analysis of a randomized controlled trial that included 546 schoolchildren. In our data example, the mediator and outcome variable were both continuous. We compared the estimates of the total, direct and indirect effects, proportion mediated, and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the indirect effect across OLS regression, SEM, and the potential outcomes framework. OLS regression, SEM, and the potential outcomes framework yielded the same effect estimates in the crude mediation model, the confounder-adjusted mediation model, and the mediation model with an interaction term for exposure-mediator interaction. Since OLS regression, SEM, and the potential outcomes framework yield the same results in three mediation models with a continuous mediator and outcome variable, researchers can continue using the method that is most convenient to them.

Meta-analytical synthesis of regression coefficients under different categorization scheme of continuous covariates.

PubMed

Yoneoka, Daisuke; Henmi, Masayuki

2017-11-30

Recently, the number of clinical prediction models sharing the same regression task has increased in the medical literature. However, evidence synthesis methodologies that use the results of these regression models have not been sufficiently studied, particularly in meta-analysis settings where only regression coefficients are available. One of the difficulties lies in the differences between the categorization schemes of continuous covariates across different studies. In general, categorization methods using cutoff values are study specific across available models, even if they focus on the same covariates of interest. Differences in the categorization of covariates could lead to serious bias in the estimated regression coefficients and thus in subsequent syntheses. To tackle this issue, we developed synthesis methods for linear regression models with different categorization schemes of covariates. A 2-step approach to aggregate the regression coefficient estimates is proposed. The first step is to estimate the joint distribution of covariates by introducing a latent sampling distribution, which uses one set of individual participant data to estimate the marginal distribution of covariates with categorization. The second step is to use a nonlinear mixed-effects model with correction terms for the bias due to categorization to estimate the overall regression coefficients. Especially in terms of precision, numerical simulations show that our approach outperforms conventional methods, which only use studies with common covariates or ignore the differences between categorization schemes. The method developed in this study is also applied to a series of WHO epidemiologic studies on white blood cell counts. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Linear Multivariable Regression Models for Prediction of Eddy Dissipation Rate from Available Meteorological Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

MCKissick, Burnell T. (Technical Monitor); Plassman, Gerald E.; Mall, Gerald H.; Quagliano, John R.

2005-01-01

Linear multivariable regression models for predicting day and night Eddy Dissipation Rate (EDR) from available meteorological data sources are defined and validated. Model definition is based on a combination of 1997-2000 Dallas/Fort Worth (DFW) data sources, EDR from Aircraft Vortex Spacing System (AVOSS) deployment data, and regression variables primarily from corresponding Automated Surface Observation System (ASOS) data. Model validation is accomplished through EDR predictions on a similar combination of 1994-1995 Memphis (MEM) AVOSS and ASOS data. Model forms include an intercept plus a single term of fixed optimal power for each of these regression variables; 30-minute forward averaged mean and variance of near-surface wind speed and temperature, variance of wind direction, and a discrete cloud cover metric. Distinct day and night models, regressing on EDR and the natural log of EDR respectively, yield best performance and avoid model discontinuity over day/night data boundaries.

Consequences of kriging and land use regression for PM2.5 predictions in epidemiologic analyses: Insights into spatial variability using high-resolution satellite data

PubMed Central

Alexeeff, Stacey E.; Schwartz, Joel; Kloog, Itai; Chudnovsky, Alexandra; Koutrakis, Petros; Coull, Brent A.

2016-01-01

Many epidemiological studies use predicted air pollution exposures as surrogates for true air pollution levels. These predicted exposures contain exposure measurement error, yet simulation studies have typically found negligible bias in resulting health effect estimates. However, previous studies typically assumed a statistical spatial model for air pollution exposure, which may be oversimplified. We address this shortcoming by assuming a realistic, complex exposure surface derived from fine-scale (1km x 1km) remote-sensing satellite data. Using simulation, we evaluate the accuracy of epidemiological health effect estimates in linear and logistic regression when using spatial air pollution predictions from kriging and land use regression models. We examined chronic (long-term) and acute (short-term) exposure to air pollution. Results varied substantially across different scenarios. Exposure models with low out-of-sample R2 yielded severe biases in the health effect estimates of some models, ranging from 60% upward bias to 70% downward bias. One land use regression exposure model with greater than 0.9 out-of-sample R2 yielded upward biases up to 13% for acute health effect estimates. Almost all models drastically underestimated the standard errors. Land use regression models performed better in chronic effects simulations. These results can help researchers when interpreting health effect estimates in these types of studies. PMID:24896768

Analytical framework for reconstructing heterogeneous environmental variables from mammal community structure.

PubMed

Louys, Julien; Meloro, Carlo; Elton, Sarah; Ditchfield, Peter; Bishop, Laura C

2015-01-01

We test the performance of two models that use mammalian communities to reconstruct multivariate palaeoenvironments. While both models exploit the correlation between mammal communities (defined in terms of functional groups) and arboreal heterogeneity, the first uses a multiple multivariate regression of community structure and arboreal heterogeneity, while the second uses a linear regression of the principal components of each ecospace. The success of these methods means the palaeoenvironment of a particular locality can be reconstructed in terms of the proportions of heavy, moderate, light, and absent tree canopy cover. The linear regression is less biased, and more precisely and accurately reconstructs heavy tree canopy cover than the multiple multivariate model. However, the multiple multivariate model performs better than the linear regression for all other canopy cover categories. Both models consistently perform better than randomly generated reconstructions. We apply both models to the palaeocommunity of the Upper Laetolil Beds, Tanzania. Our reconstructions indicate that there was very little heavy tree cover at this site (likely less than 10%), with the palaeo-landscape instead comprising a mixture of light and absent tree cover. These reconstructions help resolve the previous conflicting palaeoecological reconstructions made for this site. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Moderation analysis using a two-level regression model.

PubMed

Yuan, Ke-Hai; Cheng, Ying; Maxwell, Scott

2014-10-01

Moderation analysis is widely used in social and behavioral research. The most commonly used model for moderation analysis is moderated multiple regression (MMR) in which the explanatory variables of the regression model include product terms, and the model is typically estimated by least squares (LS). This paper argues for a two-level regression model in which the regression coefficients of a criterion variable on predictors are further regressed on moderator variables. An algorithm for estimating the parameters of the two-level model by normal-distribution-based maximum likelihood (NML) is developed. Formulas for the standard errors (SEs) of the parameter estimates are provided and studied. Results indicate that, when heteroscedasticity exists, NML with the two-level model gives more efficient and more accurate parameter estimates than the LS analysis of the MMR model. When error variances are homoscedastic, NML with the two-level model leads to essentially the same results as LS with the MMR model. Most importantly, the two-level regression model permits estimating the percentage of variance of each regression coefficient that is due to moderator variables. When applied to data from General Social Surveys 1991, NML with the two-level model identified a significant moderation effect of race on the regression of job prestige on years of education while LS with the MMR model did not. An R package is also developed and documented to facilitate the application of the two-level model.

Estimating ground-level PM(10) in a Chinese city by combining satellite data, meteorological information and a land use regression model.

PubMed

Meng, Xia; Fu, Qingyan; Ma, Zongwei; Chen, Li; Zou, Bin; Zhang, Yan; Xue, Wenbo; Wang, Jinnan; Wang, Dongfang; Kan, Haidong; Liu, Yang

2016-01-01

Development of exposure assessment model is the key component for epidemiological studies concerning air pollution, but the evidence from China is limited. Therefore, a linear mixed effects (LME) model was established in this study in a Chinese metropolis by incorporating aerosol optical depth (AOD), meteorological information and the land use regression (LUR) model to predict ground PM10 levels on high spatiotemporal resolution. The cross validation (CV) R(2) and the RMSE of the LME model were 0.87 and 19.2 μg/m(3), respectively. The relative prediction error (RPE) of daily and annual mean predicted PM10 concentrations were 19.1% and 7.5%, respectively. This study was the first attempt in China to estimate both short-term and long-term variation of PM10 levels with high spatial resolution in a Chinese metropolis with the LME model. The results suggested that the LME model could provide exposure assessment for short-term and long-term epidemiological studies in China. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluating differential effects using regression interactions and regression mixture models

PubMed Central

Van Horn, M. Lee; Jaki, Thomas; Masyn, Katherine; Howe, George; Feaster, Daniel J.; Lamont, Andrea E.; George, Melissa R. W.; Kim, Minjung

2015-01-01

Research increasingly emphasizes understanding differential effects. This paper focuses on understanding regression mixture models, a relatively new statistical methods for assessing differential effects by comparing results to using an interactive term in linear regression. The research questions which each model answers, their formulation, and their assumptions are compared using Monte Carlo simulations and real data analysis. The capabilities of regression mixture models are described and specific issues to be addressed when conducting regression mixtures are proposed. The paper aims to clarify the role that regression mixtures can take in the estimation of differential effects and increase awareness of the benefits and potential pitfalls of this approach. Regression mixture models are shown to be a potentially effective exploratory method for finding differential effects when these effects can be defined by a small number of classes of respondents who share a typical relationship between a predictor and an outcome. It is also shown that the comparison between regression mixture models and interactions becomes substantially more complex as the number of classes increases. It is argued that regression interactions are well suited for direct tests of specific hypotheses about differential effects and regression mixtures provide a useful approach for exploring effect heterogeneity given adequate samples and study design. PMID:26556903

Regression models of monthly water-level change in and near the Closed Basin Division of the San Luis Valley, south-central Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Watts, Kenneth R.

1995-01-01

The Bureau of Reclamation is developing a water-resource project, the Closed Basin Division, in the San Luis Valley of south-central Colorado that is designed to salvage unconfined ground water that currently is discharged as evapotranspiration. The water table in and near the 130,000-acre Closed Basin Division area will be lowered by an annual withdrawal of as much as 100,000 acre-feet of ground water from the unconfined aquifer. The legislation authorizing the project limits resulting drawdown of the water table in preexisting irrigation and domestic wells outside the Closed Basin Division to a maximum of 2 feet. Water levels in the closed basin in the northern part of the San Luis Valley historically have fluctuated more than 2 feet in response to water-use practices and variation of climatically controlled recharge and discharge. Declines of water levels in nearby wells that are caused by withdrawals in the Closed Basin Division can be quantified if water-level fluctuations that result from other water-use practices and climatic variations can be estimated. This study was done to evaluate water-level change at selected observation wells in and near the Closed Basin Division. Regression models of monthly water-level change were developed to predict monthly water-level change in 46 selected observation wells. Predictions of monthly water-level change are based on one or more of the following: elapsed time, cosine and sine functions with an annual period, streamflow depletion of the Rio Grande, electrical use for agricultural purposes, runoff into the closed basin, precipitation, and mean air temperature. Regression models for five of the wells include only an intercept term and either an elapsed-time term or terms determined by the cosine and sine functions. Regression models for the other 41 wells include 1 to 4 of the 5 other variables, which can vary from month to month and from year to year. Serial correlation of the residuals was detected in 24 of the regression models. These models also include an autoregressive term to account for serial correlation in the residuals. The adjusted coefficient of determination (Ra2) for the 46 regression models range from 0.08 to 0.89, and the standard errors of estimate range from 0.034 to 2.483 feet. The regression models of monthly water- level change can be used to evaluate whether post-1985 monthly water-level change values at the selected observation wells are within the 95-percent confidence limits of predicted monthly water-level change.

Predicting Air Permeability of Handloom Fabrics: A Comparative Analysis of Regression and Artificial Neural Network Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mitra, Ashis; Majumdar, Prabal Kumar; Bannerjee, Debamalya

2013-03-01

This paper presents a comparative analysis of two modeling methodologies for the prediction of air permeability of plain woven handloom cotton fabrics. Four basic fabric constructional parameters namely ends per inch, picks per inch, warp count and weft count have been used as inputs for artificial neural network (ANN) and regression models. Out of the four regression models tried, interaction model showed very good prediction performance with a meager mean absolute error of 2.017 %. However, ANN models demonstrated superiority over the regression models both in terms of correlation coefficient and mean absolute error. The ANN model with 10 nodes in the single hidden layer showed very good correlation coefficient of 0.982 and 0.929 and mean absolute error of only 0.923 and 2.043 % for training and testing data respectively.

Sedimentological indicators of paleoenvironments and siliciclastic stratigraphic sequences in some Miocene deposits of the Calvert Cliffs, southern Maryland

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shideler, G.L.

1994-01-01

Middle Miocene siliciclastic deposits comprising the Calvert Cliffs section at the Baltimore Gas and Electric Company's (BG&E) nuclear power plant site in southern Maryland were analyzed in terms of lithostratigraphy, sedimentary structures, and granulometric parameters, to interprete paleo-environments within a sequence-stratigraphic framework. In terms of sequence-stratigraphic models, the BG&E section can be interpreted as consisting of two genetic stratigraphic sequences (Galloway model), namely, a shelf sequence and an overlying deltaic sequence. Using the Exxon model, the section consists of two third-order (1-5 m.y. duration) depositional sequences. The stratigraphic sequences of the BG&E section reflect both relatively short-term eustatic transgressive events, as well as a long-term regressive trend with associated local deltation and coastal progradation. The regression probably signified a regional basinward shift of depocenters within the Salisbury embayment during Miocene time. -from Author

Multiple regression and Artificial Neural Network for long-term rainfall forecasting using large scale climate modes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mekanik, F.; Imteaz, M. A.; Gato-Trinidad, S.; Elmahdi, A.

2013-10-01

In this study, the application of Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Multiple regression analysis (MR) to forecast long-term seasonal spring rainfall in Victoria, Australia was investigated using lagged El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) as potential predictors. The use of dual (combined lagged ENSO-IOD) input sets for calibrating and validating ANN and MR Models is proposed to investigate the simultaneous effect of past values of these two major climate modes on long-term spring rainfall prediction. The MR models that did not violate the limits of statistical significance and multicollinearity were selected for future spring rainfall forecast. The ANN was developed in the form of multilayer perceptron using Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm. Both MR and ANN modelling were assessed statistically using mean square error (MSE), mean absolute error (MAE), Pearson correlation (r) and Willmott index of agreement (d). The developed MR and ANN models were tested on out-of-sample test sets; the MR models showed very poor generalisation ability for east Victoria with correlation coefficients of -0.99 to -0.90 compared to ANN with correlation coefficients of 0.42-0.93; ANN models also showed better generalisation ability for central and west Victoria with correlation coefficients of 0.68-0.85 and 0.58-0.97 respectively. The ability of multiple regression models to forecast out-of-sample sets is compatible with ANN for Daylesford in central Victoria and Kaniva in west Victoria (r = 0.92 and 0.67 respectively). The errors of the testing sets for ANN models are generally lower compared to multiple regression models. The statistical analysis suggest the potential of ANN over MR models for rainfall forecasting using large scale climate modes.

On Insensitivity of the Chi-Square Model Test to Nonlinear Misspecification in Structural Equation Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mooijaart, Ab; Satorra, Albert

2009-01-01

In this paper, we show that for some structural equation models (SEM), the classical chi-square goodness-of-fit test is unable to detect the presence of nonlinear terms in the model. As an example, we consider a regression model with latent variables and interactions terms. Not only the model test has zero power against that type of…

Logistic regression for dichotomized counts.

PubMed

Preisser, John S; Das, Kalyan; Benecha, Habtamu; Stamm, John W

2016-12-01

Sometimes there is interest in a dichotomized outcome indicating whether a count variable is positive or zero. Under this scenario, the application of ordinary logistic regression may result in efficiency loss, which is quantifiable under an assumed model for the counts. In such situations, a shared-parameter hurdle model is investigated for more efficient estimation of regression parameters relating to overall effects of covariates on the dichotomous outcome, while handling count data with many zeroes. One model part provides a logistic regression containing marginal log odds ratio effects of primary interest, while an ancillary model part describes the mean count of a Poisson or negative binomial process in terms of nuisance regression parameters. Asymptotic efficiency of the logistic model parameter estimators of the two-part models is evaluated with respect to ordinary logistic regression. Simulations are used to assess the properties of the models with respect to power and Type I error, the latter investigated under both misspecified and correctly specified models. The methods are applied to data from a randomized clinical trial of three toothpaste formulations to prevent incident dental caries in a large population of Scottish schoolchildren. © The Author(s) 2014.

Testing the Hypothesis of a Homoscedastic Error Term in Simple, Nonparametric Regression

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wilcox, Rand R.

2006-01-01

Consider the nonparametric regression model Y = m(X)+ [tau](X)[epsilon], where X and [epsilon] are independent random variables, [epsilon] has a median of zero and variance [sigma][squared], [tau] is some unknown function used to model heteroscedasticity, and m(X) is an unknown function reflecting some conditional measure of location associated…

Estimation of streamflow, base flow, and nitrate-nitrogen loads in Iowa using multiple linear regression models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schilling, K.E.; Wolter, C.F.

2005-01-01

Nineteen variables, including precipitation, soils and geology, land use, and basin morphologic characteristics, were evaluated to develop Iowa regression models to predict total streamflow (Q), base flow (Qb), storm flow (Qs) and base flow percentage (%Qb) in gauged and ungauged watersheds in the state. Discharge records from a set of 33 watersheds across the state for the 1980 to 2000 period were separated into Qb and Qs. Multiple linear regression found that 75.5 percent of long term average Q was explained by rainfall, sand content, and row crop percentage variables, whereas 88.5 percent of Qb was explained by these three variables plus permeability and floodplain area variables. Qs was explained by average rainfall and %Qb was a function of row crop percentage, permeability, and basin slope variables. Regional regression models developed for long term average Q and Qb were adapted to annual rainfall and showed good correlation between measured and predicted values. Combining the regression model for Q with an estimate of mean annual nitrate concentration, a map of potential nitrate loads in the state was produced. Results from this study have important implications for understanding geomorphic and land use controls on streamflow and base flow in Iowa watersheds and similar agriculture dominated watersheds in the glaciated Midwest. (JAWRA) (Copyright ?? 2005).

Predictors of course in obsessive-compulsive disorder: logistic regression versus Cox regression for recurrent events.

PubMed

Kempe, P T; van Oppen, P; de Haan, E; Twisk, J W R; Sluis, A; Smit, J H; van Dyck, R; van Balkom, A J L M

2007-09-01

Two methods for predicting remissions in obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) treatment are evaluated. Y-BOCS measurements of 88 patients with a primary OCD (DSM-III-R) diagnosis were performed over a 16-week treatment period, and during three follow-ups. Remission at any measurement was defined as a Y-BOCS score lower than thirteen combined with a reduction of seven points when compared with baseline. Logistic regression models were compared with a Cox regression for recurrent events model. Logistic regression yielded different models at different evaluation times. The recurrent events model remained stable when fewer measurements were used. Higher baseline levels of neuroticism and more severe OCD symptoms were associated with a lower chance of remission, early age of onset and more depressive symptoms with a higher chance. Choice of outcome time affects logistic regression prediction models. Recurrent events analysis uses all information on remissions and relapses. Short- and long-term predictors for OCD remission show overlap.

Evaluating Internal Model Strength and Performance of Myoelectric Prosthesis Control Strategies.

PubMed

Shehata, Ahmed W; Scheme, Erik J; Sensinger, Jonathon W

2018-05-01

On-going developments in myoelectric prosthesis control have provided prosthesis users with an assortment of control strategies that vary in reliability and performance. Many studies have focused on improving performance by providing feedback to the user but have overlooked the effect of this feedback on internal model development, which is key to improve long-term performance. In this paper, the strength of internal models developed for two commonly used myoelectric control strategies: raw control with raw feedback (using a regression-based approach) and filtered control with filtered feedback (using a classifier-based approach), were evaluated using two psychometric measures: trial-by-trial adaptation and just-noticeable difference. The performance of both strategies was also evaluated using Schmidt's style target acquisition task. Results obtained from 24 able-bodied subjects showed that although filtered control with filtered feedback had better short-term performance in path efficiency ( ), raw control with raw feedback resulted in stronger internal model development ( ), which may lead to better long-term performance. Despite inherent noise in the control signals of the regression controller, these findings suggest that rich feedback associated with regression control may be used to improve human understanding of the myoelectric control system.

Bias and uncertainty in regression-calibrated models of groundwater flow in heterogeneous media

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cooley, R.L.; Christensen, S.

2006-01-01

Groundwater models need to account for detailed but generally unknown spatial variability (heterogeneity) of the hydrogeologic model inputs. To address this problem we replace the large, m-dimensional stochastic vector ?? that reflects both small and large scales of heterogeneity in the inputs by a lumped or smoothed m-dimensional approximation ????*, where ?? is an interpolation matrix and ??* is a stochastic vector of parameters. Vector ??* has small enough dimension to allow its estimation with the available data. The consequence of the replacement is that model function f(????*) written in terms of the approximate inputs is in error with respect to the same model function written in terms of ??, ??,f(??), which is assumed to be nearly exact. The difference f(??) - f(????*), termed model error, is spatially correlated, generates prediction biases, and causes standard confidence and prediction intervals to be too small. Model error is accounted for in the weighted nonlinear regression methodology developed to estimate ??* and assess model uncertainties by incorporating the second-moment matrix of the model errors into the weight matrix. Techniques developed by statisticians to analyze classical nonlinear regression methods are extended to analyze the revised method. The analysis develops analytical expressions for bias terms reflecting the interaction of model nonlinearity and model error, for correction factors needed to adjust the sizes of confidence and prediction intervals for this interaction, and for correction factors needed to adjust the sizes of confidence and prediction intervals for possible use of a diagonal weight matrix in place of the correct one. If terms expressing the degree of intrinsic nonlinearity for f(??) and f(????*) are small, then most of the biases are small and the correction factors are reduced in magnitude. Biases, correction factors, and confidence and prediction intervals were obtained for a test problem for which model error is large to test robustness of the methodology. Numerical results conform with the theoretical analysis. ?? 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Robust mislabel logistic regression without modeling mislabel probabilities.

PubMed

Hung, Hung; Jou, Zhi-Yu; Huang, Su-Yun

2018-03-01

Logistic regression is among the most widely used statistical methods for linear discriminant analysis. In many applications, we only observe possibly mislabeled responses. Fitting a conventional logistic regression can then lead to biased estimation. One common resolution is to fit a mislabel logistic regression model, which takes into consideration of mislabeled responses. Another common method is to adopt a robust M-estimation by down-weighting suspected instances. In this work, we propose a new robust mislabel logistic regression based on γ-divergence. Our proposal possesses two advantageous features: (1) It does not need to model the mislabel probabilities. (2) The minimum γ-divergence estimation leads to a weighted estimating equation without the need to include any bias correction term, that is, it is automatically bias-corrected. These features make the proposed γ-logistic regression more robust in model fitting and more intuitive for model interpretation through a simple weighting scheme. Our method is also easy to implement, and two types of algorithms are included. Simulation studies and the Pima data application are presented to demonstrate the performance of γ-logistic regression. © 2017, The International Biometric Society.

An evaluation of bias in propensity score-adjusted non-linear regression models.

PubMed

Wan, Fei; Mitra, Nandita

2018-03-01

Propensity score methods are commonly used to adjust for observed confounding when estimating the conditional treatment effect in observational studies. One popular method, covariate adjustment of the propensity score in a regression model, has been empirically shown to be biased in non-linear models. However, no compelling underlying theoretical reason has been presented. We propose a new framework to investigate bias and consistency of propensity score-adjusted treatment effects in non-linear models that uses a simple geometric approach to forge a link between the consistency of the propensity score estimator and the collapsibility of non-linear models. Under this framework, we demonstrate that adjustment of the propensity score in an outcome model results in the decomposition of observed covariates into the propensity score and a remainder term. Omission of this remainder term from a non-collapsible regression model leads to biased estimates of the conditional odds ratio and conditional hazard ratio, but not for the conditional rate ratio. We further show, via simulation studies, that the bias in these propensity score-adjusted estimators increases with larger treatment effect size, larger covariate effects, and increasing dissimilarity between the coefficients of the covariates in the treatment model versus the outcome model.

Not Quite Normal: Consequences of Violating the Assumption of Normality in Regression Mixture Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Van Horn, M. Lee; Smith, Jessalyn; Fagan, Abigail A.; Jaki, Thomas; Feaster, Daniel J.; Masyn, Katherine; Hawkins, J. David; Howe, George

2012-01-01

Regression mixture models, which have only recently begun to be used in applied research, are a new approach for finding differential effects. This approach comes at the cost of the assumption that error terms are normally distributed within classes. This study uses Monte Carlo simulations to explore the effects of relatively minor violations of…

Linear regression models for solvent accessibility prediction in proteins.

PubMed

Wagner, Michael; Adamczak, Rafał; Porollo, Aleksey; Meller, Jarosław

2005-04-01

The relative solvent accessibility (RSA) of an amino acid residue in a protein structure is a real number that represents the solvent exposed surface area of this residue in relative terms. The problem of predicting the RSA from the primary amino acid sequence can therefore be cast as a regression problem. Nevertheless, RSA prediction has so far typically been cast as a classification problem. Consequently, various machine learning techniques have been used within the classification framework to predict whether a given amino acid exceeds some (arbitrary) RSA threshold and would thus be predicted to be "exposed," as opposed to "buried." We have recently developed novel methods for RSA prediction using nonlinear regression techniques which provide accurate estimates of the real-valued RSA and outperform classification-based approaches with respect to commonly used two-class projections. However, while their performance seems to provide a significant improvement over previously published approaches, these Neural Network (NN) based methods are computationally expensive to train and involve several thousand parameters. In this work, we develop alternative regression models for RSA prediction which are computationally much less expensive, involve orders-of-magnitude fewer parameters, and are still competitive in terms of prediction quality. In particular, we investigate several regression models for RSA prediction using linear L1-support vector regression (SVR) approaches as well as standard linear least squares (LS) regression. Using rigorously derived validation sets of protein structures and extensive cross-validation analysis, we compare the performance of the SVR with that of LS regression and NN-based methods. In particular, we show that the flexibility of the SVR (as encoded by metaparameters such as the error insensitivity and the error penalization terms) can be very beneficial to optimize the prediction accuracy for buried residues. We conclude that the simple and computationally much more efficient linear SVR performs comparably to nonlinear models and thus can be used in order to facilitate further attempts to design more accurate RSA prediction methods, with applications to fold recognition and de novo protein structure prediction methods.

Predicting recycling behaviour: Comparison of a linear regression model and a fuzzy logic model.

PubMed

Vesely, Stepan; Klöckner, Christian A; Dohnal, Mirko

2016-03-01

In this paper we demonstrate that fuzzy logic can provide a better tool for predicting recycling behaviour than the customarily used linear regression. To show this, we take a set of empirical data on recycling behaviour (N=664), which we randomly divide into two halves. The first half is used to estimate a linear regression model of recycling behaviour, and to develop a fuzzy logic model of recycling behaviour. As the first comparison, the fit of both models to the data included in estimation of the models (N=332) is evaluated. As the second comparison, predictive accuracy of both models for "new" cases (hold-out data not included in building the models, N=332) is assessed. In both cases, the fuzzy logic model significantly outperforms the regression model in terms of fit. To conclude, when accurate predictions of recycling and possibly other environmental behaviours are needed, fuzzy logic modelling seems to be a promising technique. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Testing for gene-environment interaction under exposure misspecification.

PubMed

Sun, Ryan; Carroll, Raymond J; Christiani, David C; Lin, Xihong

2017-11-09

Complex interplay between genetic and environmental factors characterizes the etiology of many diseases. Modeling gene-environment (GxE) interactions is often challenged by the unknown functional form of the environment term in the true data-generating mechanism. We study the impact of misspecification of the environmental exposure effect on inference for the GxE interaction term in linear and logistic regression models. We first examine the asymptotic bias of the GxE interaction regression coefficient, allowing for confounders as well as arbitrary misspecification of the exposure and confounder effects. For linear regression, we show that under gene-environment independence and some confounder-dependent conditions, when the environment effect is misspecified, the regression coefficient of the GxE interaction can be unbiased. However, inference on the GxE interaction is still often incorrect. In logistic regression, we show that the regression coefficient is generally biased if the genetic factor is associated with the outcome directly or indirectly. Further, we show that the standard robust sandwich variance estimator for the GxE interaction does not perform well in practical GxE studies, and we provide an alternative testing procedure that has better finite sample properties. © 2017, The International Biometric Society.

Hidden Connections between Regression Models of Strain-Gage Balance Calibration Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ulbrich, Norbert

2013-01-01

Hidden connections between regression models of wind tunnel strain-gage balance calibration data are investigated. These connections become visible whenever balance calibration data is supplied in its design format and both the Iterative and Non-Iterative Method are used to process the data. First, it is shown how the regression coefficients of the fitted balance loads of a force balance can be approximated by using the corresponding regression coefficients of the fitted strain-gage outputs. Then, data from the manual calibration of the Ames MK40 six-component force balance is chosen to illustrate how estimates of the regression coefficients of the fitted balance loads can be obtained from the regression coefficients of the fitted strain-gage outputs. The study illustrates that load predictions obtained by applying the Iterative or the Non-Iterative Method originate from two related regression solutions of the balance calibration data as long as balance loads are given in the design format of the balance, gage outputs behave highly linear, strict statistical quality metrics are used to assess regression models of the data, and regression model term combinations of the fitted loads and gage outputs can be obtained by a simple variable exchange.

Background stratified Poisson regression analysis of cohort data.

PubMed

Richardson, David B; Langholz, Bryan

2012-03-01

Background stratified Poisson regression is an approach that has been used in the analysis of data derived from a variety of epidemiologically important studies of radiation-exposed populations, including uranium miners, nuclear industry workers, and atomic bomb survivors. We describe a novel approach to fit Poisson regression models that adjust for a set of covariates through background stratification while directly estimating the radiation-disease association of primary interest. The approach makes use of an expression for the Poisson likelihood that treats the coefficients for stratum-specific indicator variables as 'nuisance' variables and avoids the need to explicitly estimate the coefficients for these stratum-specific parameters. Log-linear models, as well as other general relative rate models, are accommodated. This approach is illustrated using data from the Life Span Study of Japanese atomic bomb survivors and data from a study of underground uranium miners. The point estimate and confidence interval obtained from this 'conditional' regression approach are identical to the values obtained using unconditional Poisson regression with model terms for each background stratum. Moreover, it is shown that the proposed approach allows estimation of background stratified Poisson regression models of non-standard form, such as models that parameterize latency effects, as well as regression models in which the number of strata is large, thereby overcoming the limitations of previously available statistical software for fitting background stratified Poisson regression models.

Probing for the Multiplicative Term in Modern Expectancy-Value Theory: A Latent Interaction Modeling Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Trautwein, Ulrich; Marsh, Herbert W.; Nagengast, Benjamin; Ludtke, Oliver; Nagy, Gabriel; Jonkmann, Kathrin

2012-01-01

In modern expectancy-value theory (EVT) in educational psychology, expectancy and value beliefs additively predict performance, persistence, and task choice. In contrast to earlier formulations of EVT, the multiplicative term Expectancy x Value in regression-type models typically plays no major role in educational psychology. The present study…

Multiple linear regression and regression with time series error models in forecasting PM10 concentrations in Peninsular Malaysia.

PubMed

Ng, Kar Yong; Awang, Norhashidah

2018-01-06

Frequent haze occurrences in Malaysia have made the management of PM 10 (particulate matter with aerodynamic less than 10 μm) pollution a critical task. This requires knowledge on factors associating with PM 10 variation and good forecast of PM 10 concentrations. Hence, this paper demonstrates the prediction of 1-day-ahead daily average PM 10 concentrations based on predictor variables including meteorological parameters and gaseous pollutants. Three different models were built. They were multiple linear regression (MLR) model with lagged predictor variables (MLR1), MLR model with lagged predictor variables and PM 10 concentrations (MLR2) and regression with time series error (RTSE) model. The findings revealed that humidity, temperature, wind speed, wind direction, carbon monoxide and ozone were the main factors explaining the PM 10 variation in Peninsular Malaysia. Comparison among the three models showed that MLR2 model was on a same level with RTSE model in terms of forecasting accuracy, while MLR1 model was the worst.

Two Enhancements of the Logarithmic Least-Squares Method for Analyzing Subjective Comparisons

DTIC Science & Technology

1989-03-25

error term. 1 For this model, the total sum of squares ( SSTO ), defined as n 2 SSTO = E (yi y) i=1 can be partitioned into error and regression sums...of the regression line around the mean value. Mathematically, for the model given by equation A.4, SSTO = SSE + SSR (A.6) A-4 where SSTO is the total...sum of squares (i.e., the variance of the yi’s), SSE is error sum of squares, and SSR is the regression sum of squares. SSTO , SSE, and SSR are given

Modelling subject-specific childhood growth using linear mixed-effect models with cubic regression splines.

PubMed

Grajeda, Laura M; Ivanescu, Andrada; Saito, Mayuko; Crainiceanu, Ciprian; Jaganath, Devan; Gilman, Robert H; Crabtree, Jean E; Kelleher, Dermott; Cabrera, Lilia; Cama, Vitaliano; Checkley, William

2016-01-01

Childhood growth is a cornerstone of pediatric research. Statistical models need to consider individual trajectories to adequately describe growth outcomes. Specifically, well-defined longitudinal models are essential to characterize both population and subject-specific growth. Linear mixed-effect models with cubic regression splines can account for the nonlinearity of growth curves and provide reasonable estimators of population and subject-specific growth, velocity and acceleration. We provide a stepwise approach that builds from simple to complex models, and account for the intrinsic complexity of the data. We start with standard cubic splines regression models and build up to a model that includes subject-specific random intercepts and slopes and residual autocorrelation. We then compared cubic regression splines vis-à-vis linear piecewise splines, and with varying number of knots and positions. Statistical code is provided to ensure reproducibility and improve dissemination of methods. Models are applied to longitudinal height measurements in a cohort of 215 Peruvian children followed from birth until their fourth year of life. Unexplained variability, as measured by the variance of the regression model, was reduced from 7.34 when using ordinary least squares to 0.81 (p < 0.001) when using a linear mixed-effect models with random slopes and a first order continuous autoregressive error term. There was substantial heterogeneity in both the intercept (p < 0.001) and slopes (p < 0.001) of the individual growth trajectories. We also identified important serial correlation within the structure of the data (ρ = 0.66; 95 % CI 0.64 to 0.68; p < 0.001), which we modeled with a first order continuous autoregressive error term as evidenced by the variogram of the residuals and by a lack of association among residuals. The final model provides a parametric linear regression equation for both estimation and prediction of population- and individual-level growth in height. We show that cubic regression splines are superior to linear regression splines for the case of a small number of knots in both estimation and prediction with the full linear mixed effect model (AIC 19,352 vs. 19,598, respectively). While the regression parameters are more complex to interpret in the former, we argue that inference for any problem depends more on the estimated curve or differences in curves rather than the coefficients. Moreover, use of cubic regression splines provides biological meaningful growth velocity and acceleration curves despite increased complexity in coefficient interpretation. Through this stepwise approach, we provide a set of tools to model longitudinal childhood data for non-statisticians using linear mixed-effect models.

Assessing the Influence of Traffic-related Air Pollution on Risk of Term Low Birth Weight on the Basis of Land-Use-based Regression Models and Measures of Air Toxics

PubMed Central

Ghosh, Jo Kay C.; Wilhelm, Michelle; Su, Jason; Goldberg, Daniel; Cockburn, Myles; Jerrett, Michael; Ritz, Beate

2012-01-01

Few studies have examined associations of birth outcomes with toxic air pollutants (air toxics) in traffic exhaust. This study included 8,181 term low birth weight (LBW) children and 370,922 term normal-weight children born between January 1, 1995, and December 31, 2006, to women residing within 5 miles (8 km) of an air toxics monitoring station in Los Angeles County, California. Additionally, land-use-based regression (LUR)-modeled estimates of levels of nitric oxide, nitrogen dioxide, and nitrogen oxides were used to assess the influence of small-area variations in traffic pollution. The authors examined associations with term LBW (≥37 weeks’ completed gestation and birth weight <2,500 g) using logistic regression adjusted for maternal age, race/ethnicity, education, parity, infant gestational age, and gestational age squared. Odds of term LBW increased 2%–5% (95% confidence intervals ranged from 1.00 to 1.09) per interquartile-range increase in LUR-modeled estimates and monitoring-based air toxics exposure estimates in the entire pregnancy, the third trimester, and the last month of pregnancy. Models stratified by monitoring station (to investigate air toxics associations based solely on temporal variations) resulted in 2%–5% increased odds per interquartile-range increase in third-trimester benzene, toluene, ethyl benzene, and xylene exposures, with some confidence intervals containing the null value. This analysis highlights the importance of both spatial and temporal contributions to air pollution in epidemiologic birth outcome studies. PMID:22586068

Assessing the influence of traffic-related air pollution on risk of term low birth weight on the basis of land-use-based regression models and measures of air toxics.

PubMed

Ghosh, Jo Kay C; Wilhelm, Michelle; Su, Jason; Goldberg, Daniel; Cockburn, Myles; Jerrett, Michael; Ritz, Beate

2012-06-15

Few studies have examined associations of birth outcomes with toxic air pollutants (air toxics) in traffic exhaust. This study included 8,181 term low birth weight (LBW) children and 370,922 term normal-weight children born between January 1, 1995, and December 31, 2006, to women residing within 5 miles (8 km) of an air toxics monitoring station in Los Angeles County, California. Additionally, land-use-based regression (LUR)-modeled estimates of levels of nitric oxide, nitrogen dioxide, and nitrogen oxides were used to assess the influence of small-area variations in traffic pollution. The authors examined associations with term LBW (≥37 weeks' completed gestation and birth weight <2,500 g) using logistic regression adjusted for maternal age, race/ethnicity, education, parity, infant gestational age, and gestational age squared. Odds of term LBW increased 2%-5% (95% confidence intervals ranged from 1.00 to 1.09) per interquartile-range increase in LUR-modeled estimates and monitoring-based air toxics exposure estimates in the entire pregnancy, the third trimester, and the last month of pregnancy. Models stratified by monitoring station (to investigate air toxics associations based solely on temporal variations) resulted in 2%-5% increased odds per interquartile-range increase in third-trimester benzene, toluene, ethyl benzene, and xylene exposures, with some confidence intervals containing the null value. This analysis highlights the importance of both spatial and temporal contributions to air pollution in epidemiologic birth outcome studies.

Examining geological controls on baseflow index (BFI) using regression analysis: An illustration from the Thames Basin, UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bloomfield, J. P.; Allen, D. J.; Griffiths, K. J.

2009-06-01

SummaryLinear regression methods can be used to quantify geological controls on baseflow index (BFI). This is illustrated using an example from the Thames Basin, UK. Two approaches have been adopted. The areal extents of geological classes based on lithostratigraphic and hydrogeological classification schemes have been correlated with BFI for 44 'natural' catchments from the Thames Basin. When regression models are built using lithostratigraphic classes that include a constant term then the model is shown to have some physical meaning and the relative influence of the different geological classes on BFI can be quantified. For example, the regression constants for two such models, 0.64 and 0.69, are consistent with the mean observed BFI (0.65) for the Thames Basin, and the signs and relative magnitudes of the regression coefficients for each of the lithostratigraphic classes are consistent with the hydrogeology of the Basin. In addition, regression coefficients for the lithostratigraphic classes scale linearly with estimates of log 10 hydraulic conductivity for each lithological class. When a regression is built using a hydrogeological classification scheme with no constant term, the model does not have any physical meaning, but it has a relatively high adjusted R2 value and because of the continuous coverage of the hydrogeological classification scheme, the model can be used for predictive purposes. A model calibrated on the 44 'natural' catchments and using four hydrogeological classes (low-permeability surficial deposits, consolidated aquitards, fractured aquifers and intergranular aquifers) is shown to perform as well as a model based on a hydrology of soil types (BFIHOST) scheme in predicting BFI in the Thames Basin. Validation of this model using 110 other 'variably impacted' catchments in the Basin shows that there is a correlation between modelled and observed BFI. Where the observed BFI is significantly higher than modelled BFI the deviations can be explained by an exogenous factor, catchment urban area. It is inferred that this is may be due influences from sewage discharge, mains leakage, and leakage from septic tanks.

Aspects of porosity prediction using multivariate linear regression

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Byrnes, A.P.; Wilson, M.D.

1991-03-01

Highly accurate multiple linear regression models have been developed for sandstones of diverse compositions. Porosity reduction or enhancement processes are controlled by the fundamental variables, Pressure (P), Temperature (T), Time (t), and Composition (X), where composition includes mineralogy, size, sorting, fluid composition, etc. The multiple linear regression equation, of which all linear porosity prediction models are subsets, takes the generalized form: Porosity = C{sub 0} + C{sub 1}(P) + C{sub 2}(T) + C{sub 3}(X) + C{sub 4}(t) + C{sub 5}(PT) + C{sub 6}(PX) + C{sub 7}(Pt) + C{sub 8}(TX) + C{sub 9}(Tt) + C{sub 10}(Xt) + C{sub 11}(PTX) + C{submore » 12}(PXt) + C{sub 13}(PTt) + C{sub 14}(TXt) + C{sub 15}(PTXt). The first four primary variables are often interactive, thus requiring terms involving two or more primary variables (the form shown implies interaction and not necessarily multiplication). The final terms used may also involve simple mathematic transforms such as log X, e{sup T}, X{sup 2}, or more complex transformations such as the Time-Temperature Index (TTI). The X term in the equation above represents a suite of compositional variable and, therefore, a fully expanded equation may include a series of terms incorporating these variables. Numerous published bivariate porosity prediction models involving P (or depth) or Tt (TTI) are effective to a degree, largely because of the high degree of colinearity between p and TTI. However, all such bivariate models ignore the unique contributions of P and Tt, as well as various X terms. These simpler models become poor predictors in regions where colinear relations change, were important variables have been ignored, or where the database does not include a sufficient range or weight distribution for the critical variables.« less

Regression-based adaptive sparse polynomial dimensional decomposition for sensitivity analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Kunkun; Congedo, Pietro; Abgrall, Remi

2014-11-01

Polynomial dimensional decomposition (PDD) is employed in this work for global sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification of stochastic systems subject to a large number of random input variables. Due to the intimate structure between PDD and Analysis-of-Variance, PDD is able to provide simpler and more direct evaluation of the Sobol' sensitivity indices, when compared to polynomial chaos (PC). Unfortunately, the number of PDD terms grows exponentially with respect to the size of the input random vector, which makes the computational cost of the standard method unaffordable for real engineering applications. In order to address this problem of curse of dimensionality, this work proposes a variance-based adaptive strategy aiming to build a cheap meta-model by sparse-PDD with PDD coefficients computed by regression. During this adaptive procedure, the model representation by PDD only contains few terms, so that the cost to resolve repeatedly the linear system of the least-square regression problem is negligible. The size of the final sparse-PDD representation is much smaller than the full PDD, since only significant terms are eventually retained. Consequently, a much less number of calls to the deterministic model is required to compute the final PDD coefficients.

Hierarchical Bayesian Logistic Regression to forecast metabolic control in type 2 DM patients.

PubMed

Dagliati, Arianna; Malovini, Alberto; Decata, Pasquale; Cogni, Giulia; Teliti, Marsida; Sacchi, Lucia; Cerra, Carlo; Chiovato, Luca; Bellazzi, Riccardo

2016-01-01

In this work we present our efforts in building a model able to forecast patients' changes in clinical conditions when repeated measurements are available. In this case the available risk calculators are typically not applicable. We propose a Hierarchical Bayesian Logistic Regression model, which allows taking into account individual and population variability in model parameters estimate. The model is used to predict metabolic control and its variation in type 2 diabetes mellitus. In particular we have analyzed a population of more than 1000 Italian type 2 diabetic patients, collected within the European project Mosaic. The results obtained in terms of Matthews Correlation Coefficient are significantly better than the ones gathered with standard logistic regression model, based on data pooling.

Regression model estimation of early season crop proportions: North Dakota, some preliminary results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lin, K. K. (Principal Investigator)

1982-01-01

To estimate crop proportions early in the season, an approach is proposed based on: use of a regression-based prediction equation to obtain an a priori estimate for specific major crop groups; modification of this estimate using current-year LANDSAT and weather data; and a breakdown of the major crop groups into specific crops by regression models. Results from the development and evaluation of appropriate regression models for the first portion of the proposed approach are presented. The results show that the model predicts 1980 crop proportions very well at both county and crop reporting district levels. In terms of planted acreage, the model underpredicted 9.1 percent of the 1980 published data on planted acreage at the county level. It predicted almost exactly the 1980 published data on planted acreage at the crop reporting district level and overpredicted the planted acreage by just 0.92 percent.

Forecasting daily meteorological time series using ARIMA and regression models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murat, Małgorzata; Malinowska, Iwona; Gos, Magdalena; Krzyszczak, Jaromir

2018-04-01

The daily air temperature and precipitation time series recorded between January 1, 1980 and December 31, 2010 in four European sites (Jokioinen, Dikopshof, Lleida and Lublin) from different climatic zones were modeled and forecasted. In our forecasting we used the methods of the Box-Jenkins and Holt- Winters seasonal auto regressive integrated moving-average, the autoregressive integrated moving-average with external regressors in the form of Fourier terms and the time series regression, including trend and seasonality components methodology with R software. It was demonstrated that obtained models are able to capture the dynamics of the time series data and to produce sensible forecasts.

Soft-sensing model of temperature for aluminum reduction cell on improved twin support vector regression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Tao

2018-06-01

The complexity of aluminum electrolysis process leads the temperature for aluminum reduction cells hard to measure directly. However, temperature is the control center of aluminum production. To solve this problem, combining some aluminum plant's practice data, this paper presents a Soft-sensing model of temperature for aluminum electrolysis process on Improved Twin Support Vector Regression (ITSVR). ITSVR eliminates the slow learning speed of Support Vector Regression (SVR) and the over-fit risk of Twin Support Vector Regression (TSVR) by introducing a regularization term into the objective function of TSVR, which ensures the structural risk minimization principle and lower computational complexity. Finally, the model with some other parameters as auxiliary variable, predicts the temperature by ITSVR. The simulation result shows Soft-sensing model based on ITSVR has short time-consuming and better generalization.

Regression calibration for models with two predictor variables measured with error and their interaction, using instrumental variables and longitudinal data.

PubMed

Strand, Matthew; Sillau, Stefan; Grunwald, Gary K; Rabinovitch, Nathan

2014-02-10

Regression calibration provides a way to obtain unbiased estimators of fixed effects in regression models when one or more predictors are measured with error. Recent development of measurement error methods has focused on models that include interaction terms between measured-with-error predictors, and separately, methods for estimation in models that account for correlated data. In this work, we derive explicit and novel forms of regression calibration estimators and associated asymptotic variances for longitudinal models that include interaction terms, when data from instrumental and unbiased surrogate variables are available but not the actual predictors of interest. The longitudinal data are fit using linear mixed models that contain random intercepts and account for serial correlation and unequally spaced observations. The motivating application involves a longitudinal study of exposure to two pollutants (predictors) - outdoor fine particulate matter and cigarette smoke - and their association in interactive form with levels of a biomarker of inflammation, leukotriene E4 (LTE 4 , outcome) in asthmatic children. Because the exposure concentrations could not be directly observed, we used measurements from a fixed outdoor monitor and urinary cotinine concentrations as instrumental variables, and we used concentrations of fine ambient particulate matter and cigarette smoke measured with error by personal monitors as unbiased surrogate variables. We applied the derived regression calibration methods to estimate coefficients of the unobserved predictors and their interaction, allowing for direct comparison of toxicity of the different pollutants. We used simulations to verify accuracy of inferential methods based on asymptotic theory. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Multivariate decoding of brain images using ordinal regression.

PubMed

Doyle, O M; Ashburner, J; Zelaya, F O; Williams, S C R; Mehta, M A; Marquand, A F

2013-11-01

Neuroimaging data are increasingly being used to predict potential outcomes or groupings, such as clinical severity, drug dose response, and transitional illness states. In these examples, the variable (target) we want to predict is ordinal in nature. Conventional classification schemes assume that the targets are nominal and hence ignore their ranked nature, whereas parametric and/or non-parametric regression models enforce a metric notion of distance between classes. Here, we propose a novel, alternative multivariate approach that overcomes these limitations - whole brain probabilistic ordinal regression using a Gaussian process framework. We applied this technique to two data sets of pharmacological neuroimaging data from healthy volunteers. The first study was designed to investigate the effect of ketamine on brain activity and its subsequent modulation with two compounds - lamotrigine and risperidone. The second study investigates the effect of scopolamine on cerebral blood flow and its modulation using donepezil. We compared ordinal regression to multi-class classification schemes and metric regression. Considering the modulation of ketamine with lamotrigine, we found that ordinal regression significantly outperformed multi-class classification and metric regression in terms of accuracy and mean absolute error. However, for risperidone ordinal regression significantly outperformed metric regression but performed similarly to multi-class classification both in terms of accuracy and mean absolute error. For the scopolamine data set, ordinal regression was found to outperform both multi-class and metric regression techniques considering the regional cerebral blood flow in the anterior cingulate cortex. Ordinal regression was thus the only method that performed well in all cases. Our results indicate the potential of an ordinal regression approach for neuroimaging data while providing a fully probabilistic framework with elegant approaches for model selection. Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Practical application of cure mixture model for long-term censored survivor data from a withdrawal clinical trial of patients with major depressive disorder.

PubMed

Arano, Ichiro; Sugimoto, Tomoyuki; Hamasaki, Toshimitsu; Ohno, Yuko

2010-04-23

Survival analysis methods such as the Kaplan-Meier method, log-rank test, and Cox proportional hazards regression (Cox regression) are commonly used to analyze data from randomized withdrawal studies in patients with major depressive disorder. However, unfortunately, such common methods may be inappropriate when a long-term censored relapse-free time appears in data as the methods assume that if complete follow-up were possible for all individuals, each would eventually experience the event of interest. In this paper, to analyse data including such a long-term censored relapse-free time, we discuss a semi-parametric cure regression (Cox cure regression), which combines a logistic formulation for the probability of occurrence of an event with a Cox proportional hazards specification for the time of occurrence of the event. In specifying the treatment's effect on disease-free survival, we consider the fraction of long-term survivors and the risks associated with a relapse of the disease. In addition, we develop a tree-based method for the time to event data to identify groups of patients with differing prognoses (cure survival CART). Although analysis methods typically adapt the log-rank statistic for recursive partitioning procedures, the method applied here used a likelihood ratio (LR) test statistic from a fitting of cure survival regression assuming exponential and Weibull distributions for the latency time of relapse. The method is illustrated using data from a sertraline randomized withdrawal study in patients with major depressive disorder. We concluded that Cox cure regression reveals facts on who may be cured, and how the treatment and other factors effect on the cured incidence and on the relapse time of uncured patients, and that cure survival CART output provides easily understandable and interpretable information, useful both in identifying groups of patients with differing prognoses and in utilizing Cox cure regression models leading to meaningful interpretations.

Evaluation of trends in wheat yield models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ferguson, M. C.

1982-01-01

Trend terms in models for wheat yield in the U.S. Great Plains for the years 1932 to 1976 are evaluated. The subset of meteorological variables yielding the largest adjusted R(2) is selected using the method of leaps and bounds. Latent root regression is used to eliminate multicollinearities, and generalized ridge regression is used to introduce bias to provide stability in the data matrix. The regression model used provides for two trends in each of two models: a dependent model in which the trend line is piece-wise continuous, and an independent model in which the trend line is discontinuous at the year of the slope change. It was found that the trend lines best describing the wheat yields consisted of combinations of increasing, decreasing, and constant trend: four combinations for the dependent model and seven for the independent model.

Estimating linear temporal trends from aggregated environmental monitoring data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Erickson, Richard A.; Gray, Brian R.; Eager, Eric A.

2017-01-01

Trend estimates are often used as part of environmental monitoring programs. These trends inform managers (e.g., are desired species increasing or undesired species decreasing?). Data collected from environmental monitoring programs is often aggregated (i.e., averaged), which confounds sampling and process variation. State-space models allow sampling variation and process variations to be separated. We used simulated time-series to compare linear trend estimations from three state-space models, a simple linear regression model, and an auto-regressive model. We also compared the performance of these five models to estimate trends from a long term monitoring program. We specifically estimated trends for two species of fish and four species of aquatic vegetation from the Upper Mississippi River system. We found that the simple linear regression had the best performance of all the given models because it was best able to recover parameters and had consistent numerical convergence. Conversely, the simple linear regression did the worst job estimating populations in a given year. The state-space models did not estimate trends well, but estimated population sizes best when the models converged. We found that a simple linear regression performed better than more complex autoregression and state-space models when used to analyze aggregated environmental monitoring data.

Analysis of Multivariate Experimental Data Using A Simplified Regression Model Search Algorithm

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ulbrich, Norbert M.

2013-01-01

A new regression model search algorithm was developed that may be applied to both general multivariate experimental data sets and wind tunnel strain-gage balance calibration data. The algorithm is a simplified version of a more complex algorithm that was originally developed for the NASA Ames Balance Calibration Laboratory. The new algorithm performs regression model term reduction to prevent overfitting of data. It has the advantage that it needs only about one tenth of the original algorithm's CPU time for the completion of a regression model search. In addition, extensive testing showed that the prediction accuracy of math models obtained from the simplified algorithm is similar to the prediction accuracy of math models obtained from the original algorithm. The simplified algorithm, however, cannot guarantee that search constraints related to a set of statistical quality requirements are always satisfied in the optimized regression model. Therefore, the simplified algorithm is not intended to replace the original algorithm. Instead, it may be used to generate an alternate optimized regression model of experimental data whenever the application of the original search algorithm fails or requires too much CPU time. Data from a machine calibration of NASA's MK40 force balance is used to illustrate the application of the new search algorithm.

An hourly PM10 diagnosis model for the Bilbao metropolitan area using a linear regression methodology.

PubMed

González-Aparicio, I; Hidalgo, J; Baklanov, A; Padró, A; Santa-Coloma, O

2013-07-01

There is extensive evidence of the negative impacts on health linked to the rise of the regional background of particulate matter (PM) 10 levels. These levels are often increased over urban areas becoming one of the main air pollution concerns. This is the case on the Bilbao metropolitan area, Spain. This study describes a data-driven model to diagnose PM10 levels in Bilbao at hourly intervals. The model is built with a training period of 7-year historical data covering different urban environments (inland, city centre and coastal sites). The explanatory variables are quantitative-log [NO2], temperature, short-wave incoming radiation, wind speed and direction, specific humidity, hour and vehicle intensity-and qualitative-working days/weekends, season (winter/summer), the hour (from 00 to 23 UTC) and precipitation/no precipitation. Three different linear regression models are compared: simple linear regression; linear regression with interaction terms (INT); and linear regression with interaction terms following the Sawa's Bayesian Information Criteria (INT-BIC). Each type of model is calculated selecting two different periods: the training (it consists of 6 years) and the testing dataset (it consists of 1 year). The results of each type of model show that the INT-BIC-based model (R(2) = 0.42) is the best. Results were R of 0.65, 0.63 and 0.60 for the city centre, inland and coastal sites, respectively, a level of confidence similar to the state-of-the art methodology. The related error calculated for longer time intervals (monthly or seasonal means) diminished significantly (R of 0.75-0.80 for monthly means and R of 0.80 to 0.98 at seasonally means) with respect to shorter periods.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tang, Kunkun, E-mail: ktg@illinois.edu; Inria Bordeaux – Sud-Ouest, Team Cardamom, 200 avenue de la Vieille Tour, 33405 Talence; Congedo, Pietro M.

The Polynomial Dimensional Decomposition (PDD) is employed in this work for the global sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification (UQ) of stochastic systems subject to a moderate to large number of input random variables. Due to the intimate connection between the PDD and the Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) approaches, PDD is able to provide a simpler and more direct evaluation of the Sobol' sensitivity indices, when compared to the Polynomial Chaos expansion (PC). Unfortunately, the number of PDD terms grows exponentially with respect to the size of the input random vector, which makes the computational cost of standard methods unaffordable formore » real engineering applications. In order to address the problem of the curse of dimensionality, this work proposes essentially variance-based adaptive strategies aiming to build a cheap meta-model (i.e. surrogate model) by employing the sparse PDD approach with its coefficients computed by regression. Three levels of adaptivity are carried out in this paper: 1) the truncated dimensionality for ANOVA component functions, 2) the active dimension technique especially for second- and higher-order parameter interactions, and 3) the stepwise regression approach designed to retain only the most influential polynomials in the PDD expansion. During this adaptive procedure featuring stepwise regressions, the surrogate model representation keeps containing few terms, so that the cost to resolve repeatedly the linear systems of the least-squares regression problem is negligible. The size of the finally obtained sparse PDD representation is much smaller than the one of the full expansion, since only significant terms are eventually retained. Consequently, a much smaller number of calls to the deterministic model is required to compute the final PDD coefficients.« less

Adaptive surrogate modeling by ANOVA and sparse polynomial dimensional decomposition for global sensitivity analysis in fluid simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Kunkun; Congedo, Pietro M.; Abgrall, Rémi

2016-06-01

The Polynomial Dimensional Decomposition (PDD) is employed in this work for the global sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification (UQ) of stochastic systems subject to a moderate to large number of input random variables. Due to the intimate connection between the PDD and the Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) approaches, PDD is able to provide a simpler and more direct evaluation of the Sobol' sensitivity indices, when compared to the Polynomial Chaos expansion (PC). Unfortunately, the number of PDD terms grows exponentially with respect to the size of the input random vector, which makes the computational cost of standard methods unaffordable for real engineering applications. In order to address the problem of the curse of dimensionality, this work proposes essentially variance-based adaptive strategies aiming to build a cheap meta-model (i.e. surrogate model) by employing the sparse PDD approach with its coefficients computed by regression. Three levels of adaptivity are carried out in this paper: 1) the truncated dimensionality for ANOVA component functions, 2) the active dimension technique especially for second- and higher-order parameter interactions, and 3) the stepwise regression approach designed to retain only the most influential polynomials in the PDD expansion. During this adaptive procedure featuring stepwise regressions, the surrogate model representation keeps containing few terms, so that the cost to resolve repeatedly the linear systems of the least-squares regression problem is negligible. The size of the finally obtained sparse PDD representation is much smaller than the one of the full expansion, since only significant terms are eventually retained. Consequently, a much smaller number of calls to the deterministic model is required to compute the final PDD coefficients.

Regression Analysis and Calibration Recommendations for the Characterization of Balance Temperature Effects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ulbrich, N.; Volden, T.

2018-01-01

Analysis and use of temperature-dependent wind tunnel strain-gage balance calibration data are discussed in the paper. First, three different methods are presented and compared that may be used to process temperature-dependent strain-gage balance data. The first method uses an extended set of independent variables in order to process the data and predict balance loads. The second method applies an extended load iteration equation during the analysis of balance calibration data. The third method uses temperature-dependent sensitivities for the data analysis. Physical interpretations of the most important temperature-dependent regression model terms are provided that relate temperature compensation imperfections and the temperature-dependent nature of the gage factor to sets of regression model terms. Finally, balance calibration recommendations are listed so that temperature-dependent calibration data can be obtained and successfully processed using the reviewed analysis methods.

Development of Regional Power Sector Coal Fuel Costs (Prices) for the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) Model

EIA Publications

2017-01-01

The U.S. Energy Information Administration's Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) produces monthly projections of energy supply, demand, trade, and prices over a 13-24 month period. Every January, the forecast horizon is extended through December of the following year. The STEO model is an integrated system of econometric regression equations and identities that link data on the various components of the U.S. energy industry together in order to develop consistent forecasts. The regression equations are estimated and the STEO model is solved using the EViews 9.5 econometric software package from IHS Global Inc. The model consists of various modules specific to each energy resource. All modules provide projections for the United States, and some modules provide more detailed forecasts for different regions of the country.

Estimating interaction on an additive scale between continuous determinants in a logistic regression model.

PubMed

Knol, Mirjam J; van der Tweel, Ingeborg; Grobbee, Diederick E; Numans, Mattijs E; Geerlings, Mirjam I

2007-10-01

To determine the presence of interaction in epidemiologic research, typically a product term is added to the regression model. In linear regression, the regression coefficient of the product term reflects interaction as departure from additivity. However, in logistic regression it refers to interaction as departure from multiplicativity. Rothman has argued that interaction estimated as departure from additivity better reflects biologic interaction. So far, literature on estimating interaction on an additive scale using logistic regression only focused on dichotomous determinants. The objective of the present study was to provide the methods to estimate interaction between continuous determinants and to illustrate these methods with a clinical example. and results From the existing literature we derived the formulas to quantify interaction as departure from additivity between one continuous and one dichotomous determinant and between two continuous determinants using logistic regression. Bootstrapping was used to calculate the corresponding confidence intervals. To illustrate the theory with an empirical example, data from the Utrecht Health Project were used, with age and body mass index as risk factors for elevated diastolic blood pressure. The methods and formulas presented in this article are intended to assist epidemiologists to calculate interaction on an additive scale between two variables on a certain outcome. The proposed methods are included in a spreadsheet which is freely available at: http://www.juliuscenter.nl/additive-interaction.xls.

Large unbalanced credit scoring using Lasso-logistic regression ensemble.

PubMed

Wang, Hong; Xu, Qingsong; Zhou, Lifeng

2015-01-01

Recently, various ensemble learning methods with different base classifiers have been proposed for credit scoring problems. However, for various reasons, there has been little research using logistic regression as the base classifier. In this paper, given large unbalanced data, we consider the plausibility of ensemble learning using regularized logistic regression as the base classifier to deal with credit scoring problems. In this research, the data is first balanced and diversified by clustering and bagging algorithms. Then we apply a Lasso-logistic regression learning ensemble to evaluate the credit risks. We show that the proposed algorithm outperforms popular credit scoring models such as decision tree, Lasso-logistic regression and random forests in terms of AUC and F-measure. We also provide two importance measures for the proposed model to identify important variables in the data.

Evaluation of three statistical prediction models for forensic age prediction based on DNA methylation.

PubMed

Smeers, Inge; Decorte, Ronny; Van de Voorde, Wim; Bekaert, Bram

2018-05-01

DNA methylation is a promising biomarker for forensic age prediction. A challenge that has emerged in recent studies is the fact that prediction errors become larger with increasing age due to interindividual differences in epigenetic ageing rates. This phenomenon of non-constant variance or heteroscedasticity violates an assumption of the often used method of ordinary least squares (OLS) regression. The aim of this study was to evaluate alternative statistical methods that do take heteroscedasticity into account in order to provide more accurate, age-dependent prediction intervals. A weighted least squares (WLS) regression is proposed as well as a quantile regression model. Their performances were compared against an OLS regression model based on the same dataset. Both models provided age-dependent prediction intervals which account for the increasing variance with age, but WLS regression performed better in terms of success rate in the current dataset. However, quantile regression might be a preferred method when dealing with a variance that is not only non-constant, but also not normally distributed. Ultimately the choice of which model to use should depend on the observed characteristics of the data. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A metabolism-based whole lake eutrophication model to estimate the magnitude and time scales of the effects of restoration in Upper Klamath Lake, south-central Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wherry, Susan A.; Wood, Tamara M.

2018-04-27

A whole lake eutrophication (WLE) model approach for phosphorus and cyanobacterial biomass in Upper Klamath Lake, south-central Oregon, is presented here. The model is a successor to a previous model developed to inform a Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) for phosphorus in the lake, but is based on net primary production (NPP), which can be calculated from dissolved oxygen, rather than scaling up a small-scale description of cyanobacterial growth and respiration rates. This phase 3 WLE model is a refinement of the proof-of-concept developed in phase 2, which was the first attempt to use NPP to simulate cyanobacteria in the TMDL model. The calibration of the calculated NPP WLE model was successful, with performance metrics indicating a good fit to calibration data, and the calculated NPP WLE model was able to simulate mid-season bloom decreases, a feature that previous models could not reproduce.In order to use the model to simulate future scenarios based on phosphorus load reduction, a multivariate regression model was created to simulate NPP as a function of the model state variables (phosphorus and chlorophyll a) and measured meteorological and temperature model inputs. The NPP time series was split into a low- and high-frequency component using wavelet analysis, and regression models were fit to the components separately, with moderate success.The regression models for NPP were incorporated in the WLE model, referred to as the “scenario” WLE (SWLE), and the fit statistics for phosphorus during the calibration period were mostly unchanged. The fit statistics for chlorophyll a, however, were degraded. These statistics are still an improvement over prior models, and indicate that the SWLE is appropriate for long-term predictions even though it misses some of the seasonal variations in chlorophyll a.The complete whole lake SWLE model, with multivariate regression to predict NPP, was used to make long-term simulations of the response to 10-, 20-, and 40-percent reductions in tributary nutrient loads. The long-term mean water column concentration of total phosphorus was reduced by 9, 18, and 36 percent, respectively, in response to these load reductions. The long-term water column chlorophyll a concentration was reduced by 4, 13, and 44 percent, respectively. The adjustment to a new equilibrium between the water column and sediments occurred over about 30 years.

Local-scale spatial modelling for interpolating climatic temperature variables to predict agricultural plant suitability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Webb, Mathew A.; Hall, Andrew; Kidd, Darren; Minansy, Budiman

2016-05-01

Assessment of local spatial climatic variability is important in the planning of planting locations for horticultural crops. This study investigated three regression-based calibration methods (i.e. traditional versus two optimized methods) to relate short-term 12-month data series from 170 temperature loggers and 4 weather station sites with data series from nearby long-term Australian Bureau of Meteorology climate stations. The techniques trialled to interpolate climatic temperature variables, such as frost risk, growing degree days (GDDs) and chill hours, were regression kriging (RK), regression trees (RTs) and random forests (RFs). All three calibration methods produced accurate results, with the RK-based calibration method delivering the most accurate validation measures: coefficients of determination ( R 2) of 0.92, 0.97 and 0.95 and root-mean-square errors of 1.30, 0.80 and 1.31 °C, for daily minimum, daily maximum and hourly temperatures, respectively. Compared with the traditional method of calibration using direct linear regression between short-term and long-term stations, the RK-based calibration method improved R 2 and reduced root-mean-square error (RMSE) by at least 5 % and 0.47 °C for daily minimum temperature, 1 % and 0.23 °C for daily maximum temperature and 3 % and 0.33 °C for hourly temperature. Spatial modelling indicated insignificant differences between the interpolation methods, with the RK technique tending to be the slightly better method due to the high degree of spatial autocorrelation between logger sites.

Prenatal Phthalate, Perfluoroalkyl Acid, and Organochlorine Exposures and Term Birth Weight in Three Birth Cohorts: Multi-Pollutant Models Based on Elastic Net Regression

PubMed Central

Lenters, Virissa; Portengen, Lützen; Rignell-Hydbom, Anna; Jönsson, Bo A.G.; Lindh, Christian H.; Piersma, Aldert H.; Toft, Gunnar; Bonde, Jens Peter; Heederik, Dick; Rylander, Lars; Vermeulen, Roel

2015-01-01

Background Some legacy and emerging environmental contaminants are suspected risk factors for intrauterine growth restriction. However, the evidence is equivocal, in part due to difficulties in disentangling the effects of mixtures. Objectives We assessed associations between multiple correlated biomarkers of environmental exposure and birth weight. Methods We evaluated a cohort of 1,250 term (≥ 37 weeks gestation) singleton infants, born to 513 mothers from Greenland, 180 from Poland, and 557 from Ukraine, who were recruited during antenatal care visits in 2002‒2004. Secondary metabolites of diethylhexyl and diisononyl phthalates (DEHP, DiNP), eight perfluoroalkyl acids, and organochlorines (PCB-153 and p,p´-DDE) were quantifiable in 72‒100% of maternal serum samples. We assessed associations between exposures and term birth weight, adjusting for co-exposures and covariates, including prepregnancy body mass index. To identify independent associations, we applied the elastic net penalty to linear regression models. Results Two phthalate metabolites (MEHHP, MOiNP), perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA), and p,p´-DDE were most consistently predictive of term birth weight based on elastic net penalty regression. In an adjusted, unpenalized regression model of the four exposures, 2-SD increases in natural log–transformed MEHHP, PFOA, and p,p´-DDE were associated with lower birth weight: –87 g (95% CI: –137, –340 per 1.70 ng/mL), –43 g (95% CI: –108, 23 per 1.18 ng/mL), and –135 g (95% CI: –192, –78 per 1.82 ng/g lipid), respectively; and MOiNP was associated with higher birth weight (46 g; 95% CI: –5, 97 per 2.22 ng/mL). Conclusions This study suggests that several of the environmental contaminants, belonging to three chemical classes, may be independently associated with impaired fetal growth. These results warrant follow-up in other cohorts. Citation Lenters V, Portengen L, Rignell-Hydbom A, Jönsson BA, Lindh CH, Piersma AH, Toft G, Bonde JP, Heederik D, Rylander L, Vermeulen R. 2016. Prenatal phthalate, perfluoroalkyl acid, and organochlorine exposures and term birth weight in three birth cohorts: multi-pollutant models based on elastic net regression. Environ Health Perspect 124:365–372; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1408933 PMID:26115335

Genomic Bayesian functional regression models with interactions for predicting wheat grain yield using hyper-spectral image data.

PubMed

Montesinos-López, Abelardo; Montesinos-López, Osval A; Cuevas, Jaime; Mata-López, Walter A; Burgueño, Juan; Mondal, Sushismita; Huerta, Julio; Singh, Ravi; Autrique, Enrique; González-Pérez, Lorena; Crossa, José

2017-01-01

Modern agriculture uses hyperspectral cameras that provide hundreds of reflectance data at discrete narrow bands in many environments. These bands often cover the whole visible light spectrum and part of the infrared and ultraviolet light spectra. With the bands, vegetation indices are constructed for predicting agronomically important traits such as grain yield and biomass. However, since vegetation indices only use some wavelengths (referred to as bands), we propose using all bands simultaneously as predictor variables for the primary trait grain yield; results of several multi-environment maize (Aguate et al. in Crop Sci 57(5):1-8, 2017) and wheat (Montesinos-López et al. in Plant Methods 13(4):1-23, 2017) breeding trials indicated that using all bands produced better prediction accuracy than vegetation indices. However, until now, these prediction models have not accounted for the effects of genotype × environment (G × E) and band × environment (B × E) interactions incorporating genomic or pedigree information. In this study, we propose Bayesian functional regression models that take into account all available bands, genomic or pedigree information, the main effects of lines and environments, as well as G × E and B × E interaction effects. The data set used is comprised of 976 wheat lines evaluated for grain yield in three environments (Drought, Irrigated and Reduced Irrigation). The reflectance data were measured in 250 discrete narrow bands ranging from 392 to 851 nm (nm). The proposed Bayesian functional regression models were implemented using two types of basis: B-splines and Fourier. Results of the proposed Bayesian functional regression models, including all the wavelengths for predicting grain yield, were compared with results from conventional models with and without bands. We observed that the models with B × E interaction terms were the most accurate models, whereas the functional regression models (with B-splines and Fourier basis) and the conventional models performed similarly in terms of prediction accuracy. However, the functional regression models are more parsimonious and computationally more efficient because the number of beta coefficients to be estimated is 21 (number of basis), rather than estimating the 250 regression coefficients for all bands. In this study adding pedigree or genomic information did not increase prediction accuracy.

A regularization corrected score method for nonlinear regression models with covariate error.

PubMed

Zucker, David M; Gorfine, Malka; Li, Yi; Tadesse, Mahlet G; Spiegelman, Donna

2013-03-01

Many regression analyses involve explanatory variables that are measured with error, and failing to account for this error is well known to lead to biased point and interval estimates of the regression coefficients. We present here a new general method for adjusting for covariate error. Our method consists of an approximate version of the Stefanski-Nakamura corrected score approach, using the method of regularization to obtain an approximate solution of the relevant integral equation. We develop the theory in the setting of classical likelihood models; this setting covers, for example, linear regression, nonlinear regression, logistic regression, and Poisson regression. The method is extremely general in terms of the types of measurement error models covered, and is a functional method in the sense of not involving assumptions on the distribution of the true covariate. We discuss the theoretical properties of the method and present simulation results in the logistic regression setting (univariate and multivariate). For illustration, we apply the method to data from the Harvard Nurses' Health Study concerning the relationship between physical activity and breast cancer mortality in the period following a diagnosis of breast cancer. Copyright © 2013, The International Biometric Society.

Four Major South Korea's Rivers Using Deep Learning Models.

PubMed

Lee, Sangmok; Lee, Donghyun

2018-06-24

Harmful algal blooms are an annual phenomenon that cause environmental damage, economic losses, and disease outbreaks. A fundamental solution to this problem is still lacking, thus, the best option for counteracting the effects of algal blooms is to improve advance warnings (predictions). However, existing physical prediction models have difficulties setting a clear coefficient indicating the relationship between each factor when predicting algal blooms, and many variable data sources are required for the analysis. These limitations are accompanied by high time and economic costs. Meanwhile, artificial intelligence and deep learning methods have become increasingly common in scientific research; attempts to apply the long short-term memory (LSTM) model to environmental research problems are increasing because the LSTM model exhibits good performance for time-series data prediction. However, few studies have applied deep learning models or LSTM to algal bloom prediction, especially in South Korea, where algal blooms occur annually. Therefore, we employed the LSTM model for algal bloom prediction in four major rivers of South Korea. We conducted short-term (one week) predictions by employing regression analysis and deep learning techniques on a newly constructed water quality and quantity dataset drawn from 16 dammed pools on the rivers. Three deep learning models (multilayer perceptron, MLP; recurrent neural network, RNN; and long short-term memory, LSTM) were used to predict chlorophyll-a, a recognized proxy for algal activity. The results were compared to those from OLS (ordinary least square) regression analysis and actual data based on the root mean square error (RSME). The LSTM model showed the highest prediction rate for harmful algal blooms and all deep learning models out-performed the OLS regression analysis. Our results reveal the potential for predicting algal blooms using LSTM and deep learning.

Determining factors influencing survival of breast cancer by fuzzy logistic regression model.

PubMed

Nikbakht, Roya; Bahrampour, Abbas

2017-01-01

Fuzzy logistic regression model can be used for determining influential factors of disease. This study explores the important factors of actual predictive survival factors of breast cancer's patients. We used breast cancer data which collected by cancer registry of Kerman University of Medical Sciences during the period of 2000-2007. The variables such as morphology, grade, age, and treatments (surgery, radiotherapy, and chemotherapy) were applied in the fuzzy logistic regression model. Performance of model was determined in terms of mean degree of membership (MDM). The study results showed that almost 41% of patients were in neoplasm and malignant group and more than two-third of them were still alive after 5-year follow-up. Based on the fuzzy logistic model, the most important factors influencing survival were chemotherapy, morphology, and radiotherapy, respectively. Furthermore, the MDM criteria show that the fuzzy logistic regression have a good fit on the data (MDM = 0.86). Fuzzy logistic regression model showed that chemotherapy is more important than radiotherapy in survival of patients with breast cancer. In addition, another ability of this model is calculating possibilistic odds of survival in cancer patients. The results of this study can be applied in clinical research. Furthermore, there are few studies which applied the fuzzy logistic models. Furthermore, we recommend using this model in various research areas.

Large Unbalanced Credit Scoring Using Lasso-Logistic Regression Ensemble

PubMed Central

Wang, Hong; Xu, Qingsong; Zhou, Lifeng

2015-01-01

Recently, various ensemble learning methods with different base classifiers have been proposed for credit scoring problems. However, for various reasons, there has been little research using logistic regression as the base classifier. In this paper, given large unbalanced data, we consider the plausibility of ensemble learning using regularized logistic regression as the base classifier to deal with credit scoring problems. In this research, the data is first balanced and diversified by clustering and bagging algorithms. Then we apply a Lasso-logistic regression learning ensemble to evaluate the credit risks. We show that the proposed algorithm outperforms popular credit scoring models such as decision tree, Lasso-logistic regression and random forests in terms of AUC and F-measure. We also provide two importance measures for the proposed model to identify important variables in the data. PMID:25706988

Review and Recommendations for Zero-inflated Count Regression Modeling of Dental Caries Indices in Epidemiological Studies

PubMed Central

Stamm, John W.; Long, D. Leann; Kincade, Megan E.

2012-01-01

Over the past five to ten years, zero-inflated count regression models have been increasingly applied to the analysis of dental caries indices (e.g., DMFT, dfms, etc). The main reason for that is linked to the broad decline in children’s caries experience, such that dmf and DMF indices more frequently generate low or even zero counts. This article specifically reviews the application of zero-inflated Poisson and zero-inflated negative binomial regression models to dental caries, with emphasis on the description of the models and the interpretation of fitted model results given the study goals. The review finds that interpretations provided in the published caries research are often imprecise or inadvertently misleading, particularly with respect to failing to discriminate between inference for the class of susceptible persons defined by such models and inference for the sampled population in terms of overall exposure effects. Recommendations are provided to enhance the use as well as the interpretation and reporting of results of count regression models when applied to epidemiological studies of dental caries. PMID:22710271

Towards smart energy systems: application of kernel machine regression for medium term electricity load forecasting.

PubMed

Alamaniotis, Miltiadis; Bargiotas, Dimitrios; Tsoukalas, Lefteri H

2016-01-01

Integration of energy systems with information technologies has facilitated the realization of smart energy systems that utilize information to optimize system operation. To that end, crucial in optimizing energy system operation is the accurate, ahead-of-time forecasting of load demand. In particular, load forecasting allows planning of system expansion, and decision making for enhancing system safety and reliability. In this paper, the application of two types of kernel machines for medium term load forecasting (MTLF) is presented and their performance is recorded based on a set of historical electricity load demand data. The two kernel machine models and more specifically Gaussian process regression (GPR) and relevance vector regression (RVR) are utilized for making predictions over future load demand. Both models, i.e., GPR and RVR, are equipped with a Gaussian kernel and are tested on daily predictions for a 30-day-ahead horizon taken from the New England Area. Furthermore, their performance is compared to the ARMA(2,2) model with respect to mean average percentage error and squared correlation coefficient. Results demonstrate the superiority of RVR over the other forecasting models in performing MTLF.

Challenges Associated with Estimating Utility in Wet Age-Related Macular Degeneration: A Novel Regression Analysis to Capture the Bilateral Nature of the Disease.

PubMed

Hodgson, Robert; Reason, Timothy; Trueman, David; Wickstead, Rose; Kusel, Jeanette; Jasilek, Adam; Claxton, Lindsay; Taylor, Matthew; Pulikottil-Jacob, Ruth

2017-10-01

The estimation of utility values for the economic evaluation of therapies for wet age-related macular degeneration (AMD) is a particular challenge. Previous economic models in wet AMD have been criticized for failing to capture the bilateral nature of wet AMD by modelling visual acuity (VA) and utility values associated with the better-seeing eye only. Here we present a de novo regression analysis using generalized estimating equations (GEE) applied to a previous dataset of time trade-off (TTO)-derived utility values from a sample of the UK population that wore contact lenses to simulate visual deterioration in wet AMD. This analysis allows utility values to be estimated as a function of VA in both the better-seeing eye (BSE) and worse-seeing eye (WSE). VAs in both the BSE and WSE were found to be statistically significant (p < 0.05) when regressed separately. When included without an interaction term, only the coefficient for VA in the BSE was significant (p = 0.04), but when an interaction term between VA in the BSE and WSE was included, only the constant term (mean TTO utility value) was significant, potentially a result of the collinearity between the VA of the two eyes. The lack of both formal model fit statistics from the GEE approach and theoretical knowledge to support the superiority of one model over another make it difficult to select the best model. Limitations of this analysis arise from the potential influence of collinearity between the VA of both eyes, and the use of contact lenses to reflect VA states to obtain the original dataset. Whilst further research is required to elicit more accurate utility values for wet AMD, this novel regression analysis provides a possible source of utility values to allow future economic models to capture the quality of life impact of changes in VA in both eyes. Novartis Pharmaceuticals UK Limited.

Factor complexity of crash occurrence: An empirical demonstration using boosted regression trees.

PubMed

Chung, Yi-Shih

2013-12-01

Factor complexity is a characteristic of traffic crashes. This paper proposes a novel method, namely boosted regression trees (BRT), to investigate the complex and nonlinear relationships in high-variance traffic crash data. The Taiwanese 2004-2005 single-vehicle motorcycle crash data are used to demonstrate the utility of BRT. Traditional logistic regression and classification and regression tree (CART) models are also used to compare their estimation results and external validities. Both the in-sample cross-validation and out-of-sample validation results show that an increase in tree complexity provides improved, although declining, classification performance, indicating a limited factor complexity of single-vehicle motorcycle crashes. The effects of crucial variables including geographical, time, and sociodemographic factors explain some fatal crashes. Relatively unique fatal crashes are better approximated by interactive terms, especially combinations of behavioral factors. BRT models generally provide improved transferability than conventional logistic regression and CART models. This study also discusses the implications of the results for devising safety policies. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Non-Asymptotic Oracle Inequalities for the High-Dimensional Cox Regression via Lasso.

PubMed

Kong, Shengchun; Nan, Bin

2014-01-01

We consider finite sample properties of the regularized high-dimensional Cox regression via lasso. Existing literature focuses on linear models or generalized linear models with Lipschitz loss functions, where the empirical risk functions are the summations of independent and identically distributed (iid) losses. The summands in the negative log partial likelihood function for censored survival data, however, are neither iid nor Lipschitz.We first approximate the negative log partial likelihood function by a sum of iid non-Lipschitz terms, then derive the non-asymptotic oracle inequalities for the lasso penalized Cox regression using pointwise arguments to tackle the difficulties caused by lacking iid Lipschitz losses.

Non-Asymptotic Oracle Inequalities for the High-Dimensional Cox Regression via Lasso

PubMed Central

Kong, Shengchun; Nan, Bin

2013-01-01

We consider finite sample properties of the regularized high-dimensional Cox regression via lasso. Existing literature focuses on linear models or generalized linear models with Lipschitz loss functions, where the empirical risk functions are the summations of independent and identically distributed (iid) losses. The summands in the negative log partial likelihood function for censored survival data, however, are neither iid nor Lipschitz.We first approximate the negative log partial likelihood function by a sum of iid non-Lipschitz terms, then derive the non-asymptotic oracle inequalities for the lasso penalized Cox regression using pointwise arguments to tackle the difficulties caused by lacking iid Lipschitz losses. PMID:24516328

Early school attainment in late-preterm infants.

PubMed

Peacock, Philip J; Henderson, John; Odd, David; Emond, Alan

2012-02-01

To investigate whether infants born late-preterm have poorer school attainment compared to those born at term. This study used data from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children. Key stage one (KS1) school assessment results were obtained from local education authorities. Logistic regression models were used to investigate the effect of gestation, that is, late-preterm (32-36 weeks) versus term (37-41 weeks), on success in KS1 teacher assessments. Regression models were adjusted for potential confounders, including maternal education and markers of socioeconomic status. There were 12 089 term infants and 734 late-preterm infants. 71% of late-preterm children were successful in KS1 assessments compared to 79% of those born at term (OR 0.64 (95% CI 0.53 to 0.78); p<0.001). This difference persisted on adjusting for potential confounders (OR 0.74 (95% CI 0.59 to 0.92); p=0.007). Children born late-preterm are less likely to be successful in early school assessments than those born at term. This group of vulnerable children warrants closer surveillance for early identification of potential educational failure.

Regression trees for predicting mortality in patients with cardiovascular disease: What improvement is achieved by using ensemble-based methods?

PubMed Central

Austin, Peter C; Lee, Douglas S; Steyerberg, Ewout W; Tu, Jack V

2012-01-01

In biomedical research, the logistic regression model is the most commonly used method for predicting the probability of a binary outcome. While many clinical researchers have expressed an enthusiasm for regression trees, this method may have limited accuracy for predicting health outcomes. We aimed to evaluate the improvement that is achieved by using ensemble-based methods, including bootstrap aggregation (bagging) of regression trees, random forests, and boosted regression trees. We analyzed 30-day mortality in two large cohorts of patients hospitalized with either acute myocardial infarction (N = 16,230) or congestive heart failure (N = 15,848) in two distinct eras (1999–2001 and 2004–2005). We found that both the in-sample and out-of-sample prediction of ensemble methods offered substantial improvement in predicting cardiovascular mortality compared to conventional regression trees. However, conventional logistic regression models that incorporated restricted cubic smoothing splines had even better performance. We conclude that ensemble methods from the data mining and machine learning literature increase the predictive performance of regression trees, but may not lead to clear advantages over conventional logistic regression models for predicting short-term mortality in population-based samples of subjects with cardiovascular disease. PMID:22777999

Analyzing musculoskeletal neck pain, measured as present pain and periods of pain, with three different regression models: a cohort study.

PubMed

Grimby-Ekman, Anna; Andersson, Eva M; Hagberg, Mats

2009-06-19

In the literature there are discussions on the choice of outcome and the need for more longitudinal studies of musculoskeletal disorders. The general aim of this longitudinal study was to analyze musculoskeletal neck pain, in a group of young adults. Specific aims were to determine whether psychosocial factors, computer use, high work/study demands, and lifestyle are long-term or short-term factors for musculoskeletal neck pain, and whether these factors are important for developing or ongoing musculoskeletal neck pain. Three regression models were used to analyze the different outcomes. Pain at present was analyzed with a marginal logistic model, for number of years with pain a Poisson regression model was used and for developing and ongoing pain a logistic model was used. Presented results are odds ratios and proportion ratios (logistic models) and rate ratios (Poisson model). The material consisted of web-based questionnaires answered by 1204 Swedish university students from a prospective cohort recruited in 2002. Perceived stress was a risk factor for pain at present (PR = 1.6), for developing pain (PR = 1.7) and for number of years with pain (RR = 1.3). High work/study demands was associated with pain at present (PR = 1.6); and with number of years with pain when the demands negatively affect home life (RR = 1.3). Computer use pattern (number of times/week with a computer session > or = 4 h, without break) was a risk factor for developing pain (PR = 1.7), but also associated with pain at present (PR = 1.4) and number of years with pain (RR = 1.2). Among life style factors smoking (PR = 1.8) was found to be associated to pain at present. The difference between men and women in prevalence of musculoskeletal pain was confirmed in this study. It was smallest for the outcome ongoing pain (PR = 1.4) compared to pain at present (PR = 2.4) and developing pain (PR = 2.5). By using different regression models different aspects of neck pain pattern could be addressed and the risk factors impact on pain pattern was identified. Short-term risk factors were perceived stress, high work/study demands and computer use pattern (break pattern). Those were also long-term risk factors. For developing pain perceived stress and computer use pattern were risk factors.

Analyzing musculoskeletal neck pain, measured as present pain and periods of pain, with three different regression models: a cohort study

PubMed Central

Grimby-Ekman, Anna; Andersson, Eva M; Hagberg, Mats

2009-01-01

Background In the literature there are discussions on the choice of outcome and the need for more longitudinal studies of musculoskeletal disorders. The general aim of this longitudinal study was to analyze musculoskeletal neck pain, in a group of young adults. Specific aims were to determine whether psychosocial factors, computer use, high work/study demands, and lifestyle are long-term or short-term factors for musculoskeletal neck pain, and whether these factors are important for developing or ongoing musculoskeletal neck pain. Methods Three regression models were used to analyze the different outcomes. Pain at present was analyzed with a marginal logistic model, for number of years with pain a Poisson regression model was used and for developing and ongoing pain a logistic model was used. Presented results are odds ratios and proportion ratios (logistic models) and rate ratios (Poisson model). The material consisted of web-based questionnaires answered by 1204 Swedish university students from a prospective cohort recruited in 2002. Results Perceived stress was a risk factor for pain at present (PR = 1.6), for developing pain (PR = 1.7) and for number of years with pain (RR = 1.3). High work/study demands was associated with pain at present (PR = 1.6); and with number of years with pain when the demands negatively affect home life (RR = 1.3). Computer use pattern (number of times/week with a computer session ≥ 4 h, without break) was a risk factor for developing pain (PR = 1.7), but also associated with pain at present (PR = 1.4) and number of years with pain (RR = 1.2). Among life style factors smoking (PR = 1.8) was found to be associated to pain at present. The difference between men and women in prevalence of musculoskeletal pain was confirmed in this study. It was smallest for the outcome ongoing pain (PR = 1.4) compared to pain at present (PR = 2.4) and developing pain (PR = 2.5). Conclusion By using different regression models different aspects of neck pain pattern could be addressed and the risk factors impact on pain pattern was identified. Short-term risk factors were perceived stress, high work/study demands and computer use pattern (break pattern). Those were also long-term risk factors. For developing pain perceived stress and computer use pattern were risk factors. PMID:19545386

The PX-EM algorithm for fast stable fitting of Henderson's mixed model

PubMed Central

Foulley, Jean-Louis; Van Dyk, David A

2000-01-01

This paper presents procedures for implementing the PX-EM algorithm of Liu, Rubin and Wu to compute REML estimates of variance covariance components in Henderson's linear mixed models. The class of models considered encompasses several correlated random factors having the same vector length e.g., as in random regression models for longitudinal data analysis and in sire-maternal grandsire models for genetic evaluation. Numerical examples are presented to illustrate the procedures. Much better results in terms of convergence characteristics (number of iterations and time required for convergence) are obtained for PX-EM relative to the basic EM algorithm in the random regression. PMID:14736399

A Regional Analysis of Non-Methane Hydrocarbons And Meteorology of The Rural Southeast United States

DTIC Science & Technology

1996-01-01

Zt is an ARIMA time series. This is a typical regression model , except that it allows for autocorrelation in the error term Z. In this work, an ARMA...data=folder; var residual; run; II Statistical output of 1992 regression model on 1993 ozone data ARIMA Procedure Maximum Likelihood Estimation Approx...at each of the sites, and to show the effect of synoptic meteorology on high ozone by examining NOAA daily weather maps and climatic data

Robustness of intra urban land-use regression models for ultrafine particles and black carbon based on mobile monitoring.

PubMed

Kerckhoffs, Jules; Hoek, Gerard; Vlaanderen, Jelle; van Nunen, Erik; Messier, Kyle; Brunekreef, Bert; Gulliver, John; Vermeulen, Roel

2017-11-01

Land-use regression (LUR) models for ultrafine particles (UFP) and Black Carbon (BC) in urban areas have been developed using short-term stationary monitoring or mobile platforms in order to capture the high variability of these pollutants. However, little is known about the comparability of predictions of mobile and short-term stationary models and especially the validity of these models for assessing residential exposures and the robustness of model predictions developed in different campaigns. We used an electric car to collect mobile measurements (n = 5236 unique road segments) and short-term stationary measurements (3 × 30min, n = 240) of UFP and BC in three Dutch cities (Amsterdam, Utrecht, Maastricht) in 2014-2015. Predictions of LUR models based on mobile measurements were compared to (i) measured concentrations at the short-term stationary sites, (ii) LUR model predictions based on short-term stationary measurements at 1500 random addresses in the three cities, (iii) externally obtained home outdoor measurements (3 × 24h samples; n = 42) and (iv) predictions of a LUR model developed based upon a 2013 mobile campaign in two cities (Amsterdam, Rotterdam). Despite the poor model R 2 of 15%, the ability of mobile UFP models to predict measurements with longer averaging time increased substantially from 36% for short-term stationary measurements to 57% for home outdoor measurements. In contrast, the mobile BC model only predicted 14% of the variation in the short-term stationary sites and also 14% of the home outdoor sites. Models based upon mobile and short-term stationary monitoring provided fairly high correlated predictions of UFP concentrations at 1500 randomly selected addresses in the three Dutch cities (R 2 = 0.64). We found higher UFP predictions (of about 30%) based on mobile models opposed to short-term model predictions and home outdoor measurements with no clear geospatial patterns. The mobile model for UFP was stable over different settings as the model predicted concentration levels highly correlated to predictions made by a previously developed LUR model with another spatial extent and in a different year at the 1500 random addresses (R 2 = 0.80). In conclusion, mobile monitoring provided robust LUR models for UFP, valid to use in epidemiological studies. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Efficient least angle regression for identification of linear-in-the-parameters models

PubMed Central

Beach, Thomas H.; Rezgui, Yacine

2017-01-01

Least angle regression, as a promising model selection method, differentiates itself from conventional stepwise and stagewise methods, in that it is neither too greedy nor too slow. It is closely related to L1 norm optimization, which has the advantage of low prediction variance through sacrificing part of model bias property in order to enhance model generalization capability. In this paper, we propose an efficient least angle regression algorithm for model selection for a large class of linear-in-the-parameters models with the purpose of accelerating the model selection process. The entire algorithm works completely in a recursive manner, where the correlations between model terms and residuals, the evolving directions and other pertinent variables are derived explicitly and updated successively at every subset selection step. The model coefficients are only computed when the algorithm finishes. The direct involvement of matrix inversions is thereby relieved. A detailed computational complexity analysis indicates that the proposed algorithm possesses significant computational efficiency, compared with the original approach where the well-known efficient Cholesky decomposition is involved in solving least angle regression. Three artificial and real-world examples are employed to demonstrate the effectiveness, efficiency and numerical stability of the proposed algorithm. PMID:28293140

Using Bayesian regression to test hypotheses about relationships between parameters and covariates in cognitive models.

PubMed

Boehm, Udo; Steingroever, Helen; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan

2018-06-01

An important tool in the advancement of cognitive science are quantitative models that represent different cognitive variables in terms of model parameters. To evaluate such models, their parameters are typically tested for relationships with behavioral and physiological variables that are thought to reflect specific cognitive processes. However, many models do not come equipped with the statistical framework needed to relate model parameters to covariates. Instead, researchers often revert to classifying participants into groups depending on their values on the covariates, and subsequently comparing the estimated model parameters between these groups. Here we develop a comprehensive solution to the covariate problem in the form of a Bayesian regression framework. Our framework can be easily added to existing cognitive models and allows researchers to quantify the evidential support for relationships between covariates and model parameters using Bayes factors. Moreover, we present a simulation study that demonstrates the superiority of the Bayesian regression framework to the conventional classification-based approach.

Examining the Influence of Selected Factors on Perceived Co-Op Work-Term Quality from a Student Perspective

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Drewery, David; Nevison, Colleen; Pretti, T. Judene; Cormier, Lauren; Barclay, Sage; Pennaforte, Antoine

2016-01-01

This study discusses and tests a conceptual model of co-op work-term quality from a student perspective. Drawing from an earlier exploration of co-op students' perceptions of work-term quality, variables related to role characteristics, interpersonal dynamics, and organizational elements were used in a multiple linear regression analysis to…

4D-Fingerprint Categorical QSAR Models for Skin Sensitization Based on Classification Local Lymph Node Assay Measures

PubMed Central

Li, Yi; Tseng, Yufeng J.; Pan, Dahua; Liu, Jianzhong; Kern, Petra S.; Gerberick, G. Frank; Hopfinger, Anton J.

2008-01-01

Currently, the only validated methods to identify skin sensitization effects are in vivo models, such as the Local Lymph Node Assay (LLNA) and guinea pig studies. There is a tremendous need, in particular due to novel legislation, to develop animal alternatives, eg. Quantitative Structure-Activity Relationship (QSAR) models. Here, QSAR models for skin sensitization using LLNA data have been constructed. The descriptors used to generate these models are derived from the 4D-molecular similarity paradigm and are referred to as universal 4D-fingerprints. A training set of 132 structurally diverse compounds and a test set of 15 structurally diverse compounds were used in this study. The statistical methodologies used to build the models are logistic regression (LR), and partial least square coupled logistic regression (PLS-LR), which prove to be effective tools for studying skin sensitization measures expressed in the two categorical terms of sensitizer and non-sensitizer. QSAR models with low values of the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit statistic, χHL2, are significant and predictive. For the training set, the cross-validated prediction accuracy of the logistic regression models ranges from 77.3% to 78.0%, while that of PLS-logistic regression models ranges from 87.1% to 89.4%. For the test set, the prediction accuracy of logistic regression models ranges from 80.0%-86.7%, while that of PLS-logistic regression models ranges from 73.3%-80.0%. The QSAR models are made up of 4D-fingerprints related to aromatic atoms, hydrogen bond acceptors and negatively partially charged atoms. PMID:17226934

Capturing the sensitivity of land-use regression models to short-term mobile monitoring campaigns using air pollution micro-sensors.

PubMed

Minet, L; Gehr, R; Hatzopoulou, M

2017-11-01

The development of reliable measures of exposure to traffic-related air pollution is crucial for the evaluation of the health effects of transportation. Land-use regression (LUR) techniques have been widely used for the development of exposure surfaces, however these surfaces are often highly sensitive to the data collected. With the rise of inexpensive air pollution sensors paired with GPS devices, we witness the emergence of mobile data collection protocols. For the same urban area, can we achieve a 'universal' model irrespective of the number of locations and sampling visits? Can we trade the temporal representation of fixed-point sampling for a larger spatial extent afforded by mobile monitoring? This study highlights the challenges of short-term mobile sampling campaigns in terms of the resulting exposure surfaces. A mobile monitoring campaign was conducted in 2015 in Montreal; nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) levels at 1395 road segments were measured under repeated visits. We developed LUR models based on sub-segments, categorized in terms of the number of visits per road segment. We observe that LUR models were highly sensitive to the number of road segments and to the number of visits per road segment. The associated exposure surfaces were also highly dissimilar. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Escherichia coli bacteria density in relation to turbidity, streamflow characteristics, and season in the Chattahoochee River near Atlanta, Georgia, October 2000 through September 2008—Description, statistical analysis, and predictive modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lawrence, Stephen J.

2012-01-01

Regression analyses show that E. coli density in samples was strongly related to turbidity, streamflow characteristics, and season at both sites. The regression equation chosen for the Norcross data showed that 78 percent of the variability in E. coli density (in log base 10 units) was explained by the variability in turbidity values (in log base 10 units), streamflow event (dry-weather flow or stormflow), season (cool or warm), and an interaction term that is the cross product of streamflow event and turbidity. The regression equation chosen for the Atlanta data showed that 76 percent of the variability in E. coli density (in log base 10 units) was explained by the variability in turbidity values (in log base 10 units), water temperature, streamflow event, and an interaction term that is the cross product of streamflow event and turbidity. Residual analysis and model confirmation using new data indicated the regression equations selected at both sites predicted E. coli density within the 90 percent prediction intervals of the equations and could be used to predict E. coli density in real time at both sites.

A critical re-evaluation of the regression model specification in the US D1 EQ-5D value function

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background The EQ-5D is a generic health-related quality of life instrument (five dimensions with three levels, 243 health states), used extensively in cost-utility/cost-effectiveness analyses. EQ-5D health states are assigned values on a scale anchored in perfect health (1) and death (0). The dominant procedure for defining values for EQ-5D health states involves regression modeling. These regression models have typically included a constant term, interpreted as the utility loss associated with any movement away from perfect health. The authors of the United States EQ-5D valuation study replaced this constant with a variable, D1, which corresponds to the number of impaired dimensions beyond the first. The aim of this study was to illustrate how the use of the D1 variable in place of a constant is problematic. Methods We compared the original D1 regression model with a mathematically equivalent model with a constant term. Comparisons included implications for the magnitude and statistical significance of the coefficients, multicollinearity (variance inflation factors, or VIFs), number of calculation steps needed to determine tariff values, and consequences for tariff interpretation. Results Using the D1 variable in place of a constant shifted all dummy variable coefficients away from zero by the value of the constant, greatly increased the multicollinearity of the model (maximum VIF of 113.2 vs. 21.2), and increased the mean number of calculation steps required to determine health state values. Discussion Using the D1 variable in place of a constant constitutes an unnecessary complication of the model, obscures the fact that at least two of the main effect dummy variables are statistically nonsignificant, and complicates and biases interpretation of the tariff algorithm. PMID:22244261

A critical re-evaluation of the regression model specification in the US D1 EQ-5D value function.

PubMed

Rand-Hendriksen, Kim; Augestad, Liv A; Dahl, Fredrik A

2012-01-13

The EQ-5D is a generic health-related quality of life instrument (five dimensions with three levels, 243 health states), used extensively in cost-utility/cost-effectiveness analyses. EQ-5D health states are assigned values on a scale anchored in perfect health (1) and death (0).The dominant procedure for defining values for EQ-5D health states involves regression modeling. These regression models have typically included a constant term, interpreted as the utility loss associated with any movement away from perfect health. The authors of the United States EQ-5D valuation study replaced this constant with a variable, D1, which corresponds to the number of impaired dimensions beyond the first. The aim of this study was to illustrate how the use of the D1 variable in place of a constant is problematic. We compared the original D1 regression model with a mathematically equivalent model with a constant term. Comparisons included implications for the magnitude and statistical significance of the coefficients, multicollinearity (variance inflation factors, or VIFs), number of calculation steps needed to determine tariff values, and consequences for tariff interpretation. Using the D1 variable in place of a constant shifted all dummy variable coefficients away from zero by the value of the constant, greatly increased the multicollinearity of the model (maximum VIF of 113.2 vs. 21.2), and increased the mean number of calculation steps required to determine health state values. Using the D1 variable in place of a constant constitutes an unnecessary complication of the model, obscures the fact that at least two of the main effect dummy variables are statistically nonsignificant, and complicates and biases interpretation of the tariff algorithm.

Physiology-Based Modeling May Predict Surgical Treatment Outcome for Obstructive Sleep Apnea

PubMed Central

Li, Yanru; Ye, Jingying; Han, Demin; Cao, Xin; Ding, Xiu; Zhang, Yuhuan; Xu, Wen; Orr, Jeremy; Jen, Rachel; Sands, Scott; Malhotra, Atul; Owens, Robert

2017-01-01

Study Objectives: To test whether the integration of both anatomical and nonanatomical parameters (ventilatory control, arousal threshold, muscle responsiveness) in a physiology-based model will improve the ability to predict outcomes after upper airway surgery for obstructive sleep apnea (OSA). Methods: In 31 patients who underwent upper airway surgery for OSA, loop gain and arousal threshold were calculated from preoperative polysomnography (PSG). Three models were compared: (1) a multiple regression based on an extensive list of PSG parameters alone; (2) a multivariate regression using PSG parameters plus PSG-derived estimates of loop gain, arousal threshold, and other trait surrogates; (3) a physiological model incorporating selected variables as surrogates of anatomical and nonanatomical traits important for OSA pathogenesis. Results: Although preoperative loop gain was positively correlated with postoperative apnea-hypopnea index (AHI) (P = .008) and arousal threshold was negatively correlated (P = .011), in both model 1 and 2, the only significant variable was preoperative AHI, which explained 42% of the variance in postoperative AHI. In contrast, the physiological model (model 3), which included AHIREM (anatomy term), fraction of events that were hypopnea (arousal term), the ratio of AHIREM and AHINREM (muscle responsiveness term), loop gain, and central/mixed apnea index (control of breathing terms), was able to explain 61% of the variance in postoperative AHI. Conclusions: Although loop gain and arousal threshold are associated with residual AHI after surgery, only preoperative AHI was predictive using multivariate regression modeling. Instead, incorporating selected surrogates of physiological traits on the basis of OSA pathophysiology created a model that has more association with actual residual AHI. Commentary: A commentary on this article appears in this issue on page 1023. Clinical Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.Gov; Title: The Impact of Sleep Apnea Treatment on Physiology Traits in Chinese Patients With Obstructive Sleep Apnea; Identifier: NCT02696629; URL: https://clinicaltrials.gov/show/NCT02696629 Citation: Li Y, Ye J, Han D, Cao X, Ding X, Zhang Y, Xu W, Orr J, Jen R, Sands S, Malhotra A, Owens R. Physiology-based modeling may predict surgical treatment outcome for obstructive sleep apnea. J Clin Sleep Med. 2017;13(9):1029–1037. PMID:28818154

Beyond long memory in heart rate variability: An approach based on fractionally integrated autoregressive moving average time series models with conditional heteroscedasticity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leite, Argentina; Paula Rocha, Ana; Eduarda Silva, Maria

2013-06-01

Heart Rate Variability (HRV) series exhibit long memory and time-varying conditional variance. This work considers the Fractionally Integrated AutoRegressive Moving Average (ARFIMA) models with Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (GARCH) errors. ARFIMA-GARCH models may be used to capture and remove long memory and estimate the conditional volatility in 24 h HRV recordings. The ARFIMA-GARCH approach is applied to fifteen long term HRV series available at Physionet, leading to the discrimination among normal individuals, heart failure patients, and patients with atrial fibrillation.

Technical note: A linear model for predicting δ13 Cprotein.

PubMed

Pestle, William J; Hubbe, Mark; Smith, Erin K; Stevenson, Joseph M

2015-08-01

Development of a model for the prediction of δ(13) Cprotein from δ(13) Ccollagen and Δ(13) Cap-co . Model-generated values could, in turn, serve as "consumer" inputs for multisource mixture modeling of paleodiet. Linear regression analysis of previously published controlled diet data facilitated the development of a mathematical model for predicting δ(13) Cprotein (and an experimentally generated error term) from isotopic data routinely generated during the analysis of osseous remains (δ(13) Cco and Δ(13) Cap-co ). Regression analysis resulted in a two-term linear model (δ(13) Cprotein (%) = (0.78 × δ(13) Cco ) - (0.58× Δ(13) Cap-co ) - 4.7), possessing a high R-value of 0.93 (r(2)  = 0.86, P < 0.01), and experimentally generated error terms of ±1.9% for any predicted individual value of δ(13) Cprotein . This model was tested using isotopic data from Formative Period individuals from northern Chile's Atacama Desert. The model presented here appears to hold significant potential for the prediction of the carbon isotope signature of dietary protein using only such data as is routinely generated in the course of stable isotope analysis of human osseous remains. These predicted values are ideal for use in multisource mixture modeling of dietary protein source contribution. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Boosting structured additive quantile regression for longitudinal childhood obesity data.

PubMed

Fenske, Nora; Fahrmeir, Ludwig; Hothorn, Torsten; Rzehak, Peter; Höhle, Michael

2013-07-25

Childhood obesity and the investigation of its risk factors has become an important public health issue. Our work is based on and motivated by a German longitudinal study including 2,226 children with up to ten measurements on their body mass index (BMI) and risk factors from birth to the age of 10 years. We introduce boosting of structured additive quantile regression as a novel distribution-free approach for longitudinal quantile regression. The quantile-specific predictors of our model include conventional linear population effects, smooth nonlinear functional effects, varying-coefficient terms, and individual-specific effects, such as intercepts and slopes. Estimation is based on boosting, a computer intensive inference method for highly complex models. We propose a component-wise functional gradient descent boosting algorithm that allows for penalized estimation of the large variety of different effects, particularly leading to individual-specific effects shrunken toward zero. This concept allows us to flexibly estimate the nonlinear age curves of upper quantiles of the BMI distribution, both on population and on individual-specific level, adjusted for further risk factors and to detect age-varying effects of categorical risk factors. Our model approach can be regarded as the quantile regression analog of Gaussian additive mixed models (or structured additive mean regression models), and we compare both model classes with respect to our obesity data.

An Analysis of San Diego's Housing Market Using a Geographically Weighted Regression Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grant, Christina P.

San Diego County real estate transaction data was evaluated with a set of linear models calibrated by ordinary least squares and geographically weighted regression (GWR). The goal of the analysis was to determine whether the spatial effects assumed to be in the data are best studied globally with no spatial terms, globally with a fixed effects submarket variable, or locally with GWR. 18,050 single-family residential sales which closed in the six months between April 2014 and September 2014 were used in the analysis. Diagnostic statistics including AICc, R2, Global Moran's I, and visual inspection of diagnostic plots and maps indicate superior model performance by GWR as compared to both global regressions.

Hierarchical cluster-based partial least squares regression (HC-PLSR) is an efficient tool for metamodelling of nonlinear dynamic models.

PubMed

Tøndel, Kristin; Indahl, Ulf G; Gjuvsland, Arne B; Vik, Jon Olav; Hunter, Peter; Omholt, Stig W; Martens, Harald

2011-06-01

Deterministic dynamic models of complex biological systems contain a large number of parameters and state variables, related through nonlinear differential equations with various types of feedback. A metamodel of such a dynamic model is a statistical approximation model that maps variation in parameters and initial conditions (inputs) to variation in features of the trajectories of the state variables (outputs) throughout the entire biologically relevant input space. A sufficiently accurate mapping can be exploited both instrumentally and epistemically. Multivariate regression methodology is a commonly used approach for emulating dynamic models. However, when the input-output relations are highly nonlinear or non-monotone, a standard linear regression approach is prone to give suboptimal results. We therefore hypothesised that a more accurate mapping can be obtained by locally linear or locally polynomial regression. We present here a new method for local regression modelling, Hierarchical Cluster-based PLS regression (HC-PLSR), where fuzzy C-means clustering is used to separate the data set into parts according to the structure of the response surface. We compare the metamodelling performance of HC-PLSR with polynomial partial least squares regression (PLSR) and ordinary least squares (OLS) regression on various systems: six different gene regulatory network models with various types of feedback, a deterministic mathematical model of the mammalian circadian clock and a model of the mouse ventricular myocyte function. Our results indicate that multivariate regression is well suited for emulating dynamic models in systems biology. The hierarchical approach turned out to be superior to both polynomial PLSR and OLS regression in all three test cases. The advantage, in terms of explained variance and prediction accuracy, was largest in systems with highly nonlinear functional relationships and in systems with positive feedback loops. HC-PLSR is a promising approach for metamodelling in systems biology, especially for highly nonlinear or non-monotone parameter to phenotype maps. The algorithm can be flexibly adjusted to suit the complexity of the dynamic model behaviour, inviting automation in the metamodelling of complex systems.

Hierarchical Cluster-based Partial Least Squares Regression (HC-PLSR) is an efficient tool for metamodelling of nonlinear dynamic models

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Deterministic dynamic models of complex biological systems contain a large number of parameters and state variables, related through nonlinear differential equations with various types of feedback. A metamodel of such a dynamic model is a statistical approximation model that maps variation in parameters and initial conditions (inputs) to variation in features of the trajectories of the state variables (outputs) throughout the entire biologically relevant input space. A sufficiently accurate mapping can be exploited both instrumentally and epistemically. Multivariate regression methodology is a commonly used approach for emulating dynamic models. However, when the input-output relations are highly nonlinear or non-monotone, a standard linear regression approach is prone to give suboptimal results. We therefore hypothesised that a more accurate mapping can be obtained by locally linear or locally polynomial regression. We present here a new method for local regression modelling, Hierarchical Cluster-based PLS regression (HC-PLSR), where fuzzy C-means clustering is used to separate the data set into parts according to the structure of the response surface. We compare the metamodelling performance of HC-PLSR with polynomial partial least squares regression (PLSR) and ordinary least squares (OLS) regression on various systems: six different gene regulatory network models with various types of feedback, a deterministic mathematical model of the mammalian circadian clock and a model of the mouse ventricular myocyte function. Results Our results indicate that multivariate regression is well suited for emulating dynamic models in systems biology. The hierarchical approach turned out to be superior to both polynomial PLSR and OLS regression in all three test cases. The advantage, in terms of explained variance and prediction accuracy, was largest in systems with highly nonlinear functional relationships and in systems with positive feedback loops. Conclusions HC-PLSR is a promising approach for metamodelling in systems biology, especially for highly nonlinear or non-monotone parameter to phenotype maps. The algorithm can be flexibly adjusted to suit the complexity of the dynamic model behaviour, inviting automation in the metamodelling of complex systems. PMID:21627852

A land use regression model for ambient ultrafine particles in Montreal, Canada: A comparison of linear regression and a machine learning approach.

PubMed

Weichenthal, Scott; Ryswyk, Keith Van; Goldstein, Alon; Bagg, Scott; Shekkarizfard, Maryam; Hatzopoulou, Marianne

2016-04-01

Existing evidence suggests that ambient ultrafine particles (UFPs) (<0.1µm) may contribute to acute cardiorespiratory morbidity. However, few studies have examined the long-term health effects of these pollutants owing in part to a need for exposure surfaces that can be applied in large population-based studies. To address this need, we developed a land use regression model for UFPs in Montreal, Canada using mobile monitoring data collected from 414 road segments during the summer and winter months between 2011 and 2012. Two different approaches were examined for model development including standard multivariable linear regression and a machine learning approach (kernel-based regularized least squares (KRLS)) that learns the functional form of covariate impacts on ambient UFP concentrations from the data. The final models included parameters for population density, ambient temperature and wind speed, land use parameters (park space and open space), length of local roads and rail, and estimated annual average NOx emissions from traffic. The final multivariable linear regression model explained 62% of the spatial variation in ambient UFP concentrations whereas the KRLS model explained 79% of the variance. The KRLS model performed slightly better than the linear regression model when evaluated using an external dataset (R(2)=0.58 vs. 0.55) or a cross-validation procedure (R(2)=0.67 vs. 0.60). In general, our findings suggest that the KRLS approach may offer modest improvements in predictive performance compared to standard multivariable linear regression models used to estimate spatial variations in ambient UFPs. However, differences in predictive performance were not statistically significant when evaluated using the cross-validation procedure. Crown Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Environmental Regulations and Changes in Petroleum Refining Operations (Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement June 1998)

EIA Publications

1998-01-01

Changes in domestic refining operations are identified and related to the summer Reid vapor pressure (RVP) restrictions and oxygenate blending requirements. This analysis uses published Energy Information Administration survey data and linear regression equations from the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS). The STIFS model is used for producing forecasts appearing in the Short-Term Energy Outlook.

Examination of influential observations in penalized spline regression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Türkan, Semra

2013-10-01

In parametric or nonparametric regression models, the results of regression analysis are affected by some anomalous observations in the data set. Thus, detection of these observations is one of the major steps in regression analysis. These observations are precisely detected by well-known influence measures. Pena's statistic is one of them. In this study, Pena's approach is formulated for penalized spline regression in terms of ordinary residuals and leverages. The real data and artificial data are used to see illustrate the effectiveness of Pena's statistic as to Cook's distance on detecting influential observations. The results of the study clearly reveal that the proposed measure is superior to Cook's Distance to detect these observations in large data set.

Nonparametric Stochastic Model for Uncertainty Quantifi cation of Short-term Wind Speed Forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

AL-Shehhi, A. M.; Chaouch, M.; Ouarda, T.

2014-12-01

Wind energy is increasing in importance as a renewable energy source due to its potential role in reducing carbon emissions. It is a safe, clean, and inexhaustible source of energy. The amount of wind energy generated by wind turbines is closely related to the wind speed. Wind speed forecasting plays a vital role in the wind energy sector in terms of wind turbine optimal operation, wind energy dispatch and scheduling, efficient energy harvesting etc. It is also considered during planning, design, and assessment of any proposed wind project. Therefore, accurate prediction of wind speed carries a particular importance and plays significant roles in the wind industry. Many methods have been proposed in the literature for short-term wind speed forecasting. These methods are usually based on modeling historical fixed time intervals of the wind speed data and using it for future prediction. The methods mainly include statistical models such as ARMA, ARIMA model, physical models for instance numerical weather prediction and artificial Intelligence techniques for example support vector machine and neural networks. In this paper, we are interested in estimating hourly wind speed measures in United Arab Emirates (UAE). More precisely, we predict hourly wind speed using a nonparametric kernel estimation of the regression and volatility functions pertaining to nonlinear autoregressive model with ARCH model, which includes unknown nonlinear regression function and volatility function already discussed in the literature. The unknown nonlinear regression function describe the dependence between the value of the wind speed at time t and its historical data at time t -1, t - 2, … , t - d. This function plays a key role to predict hourly wind speed process. The volatility function, i.e., the conditional variance given the past, measures the risk associated to this prediction. Since the regression and the volatility functions are supposed to be unknown, they are estimated using nonparametric kernel methods. In addition, to the pointwise hourly wind speed forecasts, a confidence interval is also provided which allows to quantify the uncertainty around the forecasts.

Mutual Group Hypnosis: A Social Interaction Analysis.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sanders, Shirley

Mutual Group Hypnosis is discussed in terms of its similarity to group dynamics in general and in terms of its similarity to a social interaction program (Role Modeling) designed to foster the expression of warmth and acceptance among group members. Hypnosis also fosters a regression to prelogical thought processes in the service of the ego. Group…

Calibration Designs for Non-Monolithic Wind Tunnel Force Balances

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, Thomas H.; Parker, Peter A.; Landman, Drew

2010-01-01

This research paper investigates current experimental designs and regression models for calibrating internal wind tunnel force balances of non-monolithic design. Such calibration methods are necessary for this class of balance because it has an electrical response that is dependent upon the sign of the applied forces and moments. This dependency gives rise to discontinuities in the response surfaces that are not easily modeled using traditional response surface methodologies. An analysis of current recommended calibration models is shown to lead to correlated response model terms. Alternative modeling methods are explored which feature orthogonal or near-orthogonal terms.

Data-driven discovery of partial differential equations.

PubMed

Rudy, Samuel H; Brunton, Steven L; Proctor, Joshua L; Kutz, J Nathan

2017-04-01

We propose a sparse regression method capable of discovering the governing partial differential equation(s) of a given system by time series measurements in the spatial domain. The regression framework relies on sparsity-promoting techniques to select the nonlinear and partial derivative terms of the governing equations that most accurately represent the data, bypassing a combinatorially large search through all possible candidate models. The method balances model complexity and regression accuracy by selecting a parsimonious model via Pareto analysis. Time series measurements can be made in an Eulerian framework, where the sensors are fixed spatially, or in a Lagrangian framework, where the sensors move with the dynamics. The method is computationally efficient, robust, and demonstrated to work on a variety of canonical problems spanning a number of scientific domains including Navier-Stokes, the quantum harmonic oscillator, and the diffusion equation. Moreover, the method is capable of disambiguating between potentially nonunique dynamical terms by using multiple time series taken with different initial data. Thus, for a traveling wave, the method can distinguish between a linear wave equation and the Korteweg-de Vries equation, for instance. The method provides a promising new technique for discovering governing equations and physical laws in parameterized spatiotemporal systems, where first-principles derivations are intractable.

Model synthesis in frequency analysis of Missouri floods

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hauth, Leland D.

1974-01-01

Synthetic flood records for 43 small-stream sites aided in definition of techniques for estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods in Missouri. The long-term synthetic flood records were generated by use of a digital computer model of the rainfall-runoff process. A relatively short period of concurrent rainfall and runoff data observed at each of the 43 sites was used to calibrate the model, and rainfall records covering from 66 to 78 years for four Missouri sites and pan-evaporation data were used to generate the synthetic records. Flood magnitude and frequency characteristics of both the synthetic records and observed long-term flood records available for 109 large-stream sites were used in a multiple-regression analysis to define relations for estimating future flood characteristics at ungaged sites. That analysis indicated that drainage basin size and slope were the most useful estimating variables. It also indicated that a more complex regression model than the commonly used log-linear one was needed for the range of drainage basin sizes available in this study.

Forecasting Techniques and Library Circulation Operations: Implications for Management.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ahiakwo, Okechukwu N.

1988-01-01

Causal regression and time series models were developed using six years of data for home borrowing, average readership, and books consulted at a university library. The models were tested for efficacy in producing short-term planning and control data. Combined models were tested in establishing evaluation measures. (10 references) (Author/MES)

Improving near-infrared prediction model robustness with support vector machine regression: a pharmaceutical tablet assay example.

PubMed

Igne, Benoît; Drennen, James K; Anderson, Carl A

2014-01-01

Changes in raw materials and process wear and tear can have significant effects on the prediction error of near-infrared calibration models. When the variability that is present during routine manufacturing is not included in the calibration, test, and validation sets, the long-term performance and robustness of the model will be limited. Nonlinearity is a major source of interference. In near-infrared spectroscopy, nonlinearity can arise from light path-length differences that can come from differences in particle size or density. The usefulness of support vector machine (SVM) regression to handle nonlinearity and improve the robustness of calibration models in scenarios where the calibration set did not include all the variability present in test was evaluated. Compared to partial least squares (PLS) regression, SVM regression was less affected by physical (particle size) and chemical (moisture) differences. The linearity of the SVM predicted values was also improved. Nevertheless, although visualization and interpretation tools have been developed to enhance the usability of SVM-based methods, work is yet to be done to provide chemometricians in the pharmaceutical industry with a regression method that can supplement PLS-based methods.

A fuzzy adaptive network approach to parameter estimation in cases where independent variables come from an exponential distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dalkilic, Turkan Erbay; Apaydin, Aysen

2009-11-01

In a regression analysis, it is assumed that the observations come from a single class in a data cluster and the simple functional relationship between the dependent and independent variables can be expressed using the general model; Y=f(X)+[epsilon]. However; a data cluster may consist of a combination of observations that have different distributions that are derived from different clusters. When faced with issues of estimating a regression model for fuzzy inputs that have been derived from different distributions, this regression model has been termed the [`]switching regression model' and it is expressed with . Here li indicates the class number of each independent variable and p is indicative of the number of independent variables [J.R. Jang, ANFIS: Adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system, IEEE Transaction on Systems, Man and Cybernetics 23 (3) (1993) 665-685; M. Michel, Fuzzy clustering and switching regression models using ambiguity and distance rejects, Fuzzy Sets and Systems 122 (2001) 363-399; E.Q. Richard, A new approach to estimating switching regressions, Journal of the American Statistical Association 67 (338) (1972) 306-310]. In this study, adaptive networks have been used to construct a model that has been formed by gathering obtained models. There are methods that suggest the class numbers of independent variables heuristically. Alternatively, in defining the optimal class number of independent variables, the use of suggested validity criterion for fuzzy clustering has been aimed. In the case that independent variables have an exponential distribution, an algorithm has been suggested for defining the unknown parameter of the switching regression model and for obtaining the estimated values after obtaining an optimal membership function, which is suitable for exponential distribution.

Estimation of peak-discharge frequency of urban streams in Jefferson County, Kentucky

USGS Publications Warehouse

Martin, Gary R.; Ruhl, Kevin J.; Moore, Brian L.; Rose, Martin F.

1997-01-01

An investigation of flood-hydrograph characteristics for streams in urban Jefferson County, Kentucky, was made to obtain hydrologic information needed for waterresources management. Equations for estimating peak-discharge frequencies for ungaged streams in the county were developed by combining (1) long-term annual peakdischarge data and rainfall-runoff data collected from 1991 to 1995 in 13 urban basins and (2) long-term annual peak-discharge data in four rural basins located in hydrologically similar areas of neighboring counties. The basins ranged in size from 1.36 to 64.0 square miles. The U.S. Geological Survey Rainfall- Runoff Model (RRM) was calibrated for each of the urban basins. The calibrated models were used with long-term, historical rainfall and pan-evaporation data to simulate 79 years of annual peak-discharge data. Peak-discharge frequencies were estimated by fitting the logarithms of the annual peak discharges to a Pearson-Type III frequency distribution. The simulated peak-discharge frequencies were adjusted for improved reliability by application of bias-correction factors derived from peakdischarge frequencies based on local, observed annual peak discharges. The three-parameter and the preferred seven-parameter nationwide urban-peak-discharge regression equations previously developed by USGS investigators provided biased (high) estimates for the urban basins studied. Generalized-least-square regression procedures were used to relate peakdischarge frequency to selected basin characteristics. Regression equations were developed to estimate peak-discharge frequency by adjusting peak-dischargefrequency estimates made by use of the threeparameter nationwide urban regression equations. The regression equations are presented in equivalent forms as functions of contributing drainage area, main-channel slope, and basin development factor, which is an index for measuring the efficiency of the basin drainage system. Estimates of peak discharges for streams in the county can be made for the 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, and 100-year recurrence intervals by use of the regression equations. The average standard errors of prediction of the regression equations ranges from ? 34 to ? 45 percent. The regression equations are applicable to ungaged streams in the county having a specific range of basin characteristics.

[Use of multiple regression models in observational studies (1970-2013) and requirements of the STROBE guidelines in Spanish scientific journals].

PubMed

Real, J; Cleries, R; Forné, C; Roso-Llorach, A; Martínez-Sánchez, J M

In medicine and biomedical research, statistical techniques like logistic, linear, Cox and Poisson regression are widely known. The main objective is to describe the evolution of multivariate techniques used in observational studies indexed in PubMed (1970-2013), and to check the requirements of the STROBE guidelines in the author guidelines in Spanish journals indexed in PubMed. A targeted PubMed search was performed to identify papers that used logistic linear Cox and Poisson models. Furthermore, a review was also made of the author guidelines of journals published in Spain and indexed in PubMed and Web of Science. Only 6.1% of the indexed manuscripts included a term related to multivariate analysis, increasing from 0.14% in 1980 to 12.3% in 2013. In 2013, 6.7, 2.5, 3.5, and 0.31% of the manuscripts contained terms related to logistic, linear, Cox and Poisson regression, respectively. On the other hand, 12.8% of journals author guidelines explicitly recommend to follow the STROBE guidelines, and 35.9% recommend the CONSORT guideline. A low percentage of Spanish scientific journals indexed in PubMed include the STROBE statement requirement in the author guidelines. Multivariate regression models in published observational studies such as logistic regression, linear, Cox and Poisson are increasingly used both at international level, as well as in journals published in Spanish. Copyright © 2015 Sociedad Española de Médicos de Atención Primaria (SEMERGEN). Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Modelling nitrate pollution pressure using a multivariate statistical approach: the case of Kinshasa groundwater body, Democratic Republic of Congo

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mfumu Kihumba, Antoine; Ndembo Longo, Jean; Vanclooster, Marnik

2016-03-01

A multivariate statistical modelling approach was applied to explain the anthropogenic pressure of nitrate pollution on the Kinshasa groundwater body (Democratic Republic of Congo). Multiple regression and regression tree models were compared and used to identify major environmental factors that control the groundwater nitrate concentration in this region. The analyses were made in terms of physical attributes related to the topography, land use, geology and hydrogeology in the capture zone of different groundwater sampling stations. For the nitrate data, groundwater datasets from two different surveys were used. The statistical models identified the topography, the residential area, the service land (cemetery), and the surface-water land-use classes as major factors explaining nitrate occurrence in the groundwater. Also, groundwater nitrate pollution depends not on one single factor but on the combined influence of factors representing nitrogen loading sources and aquifer susceptibility characteristics. The groundwater nitrate pressure was better predicted with the regression tree model than with the multiple regression model. Furthermore, the results elucidated the sensitivity of the model performance towards the method of delineation of the capture zones. For pollution modelling at the monitoring points, therefore, it is better to identify capture-zone shapes based on a conceptual hydrogeological model rather than to adopt arbitrary circular capture zones.

The effect of delayed graft function on graft and patient survival in kidney transplantation: an approach using competing events analysis.

PubMed

Fonseca, Isabel; Teixeira, Laetitia; Malheiro, Jorge; Martins, La Salete; Dias, Leonídio; Castro Henriques, António; Mendonça, Denisa

2015-06-01

In kidney transplantation, the impact of delayed graft function (DGF) on long-term graft and patient survival is controversial. We examined the impact of DGF on graft and recipient survival by accounting for the possibility that death with graft function may act as a competing risk for allograft failure. We used data from 1281 adult primary deceased-donor kidney recipients whose allografts functioned at least 1 year. The probability of graft loss occurrence is overestimated using the complement of Kaplan-Meier estimates (1-KM). Both the cause-specific Cox proportional hazard regression model (standard Cox) and the subdistribution hazard regression model proposed by Fine and Gray showed that DGF was associated with shorter time to graft failure (csHR = 2.0, P = 0.002; sHR = 1.57, P = 0.009), independent of acute rejection (AR) and after adjusting for traditional factors associated with graft failure. Regarding patient survival, DGF was a predictor of patient death using the cause-specific Cox model (csHR = 1.57, P = 0.029) but not using the subdistribution model. The probability of graft loss from competing end points should not be reported with the 1-KM. Application of a regression model for subdistribution hazard showed that, independent of AR, DGF has a detrimental effect on long-term graft survival, but not on patient survival. © 2015 Steunstichting ESOT.

Application of Boosting Regression Trees to Preliminary Cost Estimation in Building Construction Projects

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

Among the recent data mining techniques available, the boosting approach has attracted a great deal of attention because of its effective learning algorithm and strong boundaries in terms of its generalization performance. However, the boosting approach has yet to be used in regression problems within the construction domain, including cost estimations, but has been actively utilized in other domains. Therefore, a boosting regression tree (BRT) is applied to cost estimations at the early stage of a construction project to examine the applicability of the boosting approach to a regression problem within the construction domain. To evaluate the performance of the BRT model, its performance was compared with that of a neural network (NN) model, which has been proven to have a high performance in cost estimation domains. The BRT model has shown results similar to those of NN model using 234 actual cost datasets of a building construction project. In addition, the BRT model can provide additional information such as the importance plot and structure model, which can support estimators in comprehending the decision making process. Consequently, the boosting approach has potential applicability in preliminary cost estimations in a building construction project. PMID:26339227

Application of Boosting Regression Trees to Preliminary Cost Estimation in Building Construction Projects.

PubMed

Shin, Yoonseok

2015-01-01

Among the recent data mining techniques available, the boosting approach has attracted a great deal of attention because of its effective learning algorithm and strong boundaries in terms of its generalization performance. However, the boosting approach has yet to be used in regression problems within the construction domain, including cost estimations, but has been actively utilized in other domains. Therefore, a boosting regression tree (BRT) is applied to cost estimations at the early stage of a construction project to examine the applicability of the boosting approach to a regression problem within the construction domain. To evaluate the performance of the BRT model, its performance was compared with that of a neural network (NN) model, which has been proven to have a high performance in cost estimation domains. The BRT model has shown results similar to those of NN model using 234 actual cost datasets of a building construction project. In addition, the BRT model can provide additional information such as the importance plot and structure model, which can support estimators in comprehending the decision making process. Consequently, the boosting approach has potential applicability in preliminary cost estimations in a building construction project.

A simulation study on Bayesian Ridge regression models for several collinearity levels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Efendi, Achmad; Effrihan

2017-12-01

When analyzing data with multiple regression model if there are collinearities, then one or several predictor variables are usually omitted from the model. However, there sometimes some reasons, for instance medical or economic reasons, the predictors are all important and should be included in the model. Ridge regression model is not uncommon in some researches to use to cope with collinearity. Through this modeling, weights for predictor variables are used for estimating parameters. The next estimation process could follow the concept of likelihood. Furthermore, for the estimation nowadays the Bayesian version could be an alternative. This estimation method does not match likelihood one in terms of popularity due to some difficulties; computation and so forth. Nevertheless, with the growing improvement of computational methodology recently, this caveat should not at the moment become a problem. This paper discusses about simulation process for evaluating the characteristic of Bayesian Ridge regression parameter estimates. There are several simulation settings based on variety of collinearity levels and sample sizes. The results show that Bayesian method gives better performance for relatively small sample sizes, and for other settings the method does perform relatively similar to the likelihood method.

Stock price forecasting for companies listed on Tehran stock exchange using multivariate adaptive regression splines model and semi-parametric splines technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rounaghi, Mohammad Mahdi; Abbaszadeh, Mohammad Reza; Arashi, Mohammad

2015-11-01

One of the most important topics of interest to investors is stock price changes. Investors whose goals are long term are sensitive to stock price and its changes and react to them. In this regard, we used multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) model and semi-parametric splines technique for predicting stock price in this study. The MARS model as a nonparametric method is an adaptive method for regression and it fits for problems with high dimensions and several variables. semi-parametric splines technique was used in this study. Smoothing splines is a nonparametric regression method. In this study, we used 40 variables (30 accounting variables and 10 economic variables) for predicting stock price using the MARS model and using semi-parametric splines technique. After investigating the models, we select 4 accounting variables (book value per share, predicted earnings per share, P/E ratio and risk) as influencing variables on predicting stock price using the MARS model. After fitting the semi-parametric splines technique, only 4 accounting variables (dividends, net EPS, EPS Forecast and P/E Ratio) were selected as variables effective in forecasting stock prices.

A New SEYHAN's Approach in Case of Heterogeneity of Regression Slopes in ANCOVA.

PubMed

Ankarali, Handan; Cangur, Sengul; Ankarali, Seyit

2018-06-01

In this study, when the assumptions of linearity and homogeneity of regression slopes of conventional ANCOVA are not met, a new approach named as SEYHAN has been suggested to use conventional ANCOVA instead of robust or nonlinear ANCOVA. The proposed SEYHAN's approach involves transformation of continuous covariate into categorical structure when the relationship between covariate and dependent variable is nonlinear and the regression slopes are not homogenous. A simulated data set was used to explain SEYHAN's approach. In this approach, we performed conventional ANCOVA in each subgroup which is constituted according to knot values and analysis of variance with two-factor model after MARS method was used for categorization of covariate. The first model is a simpler model than the second model that includes interaction term. Since the model with interaction effect has more subjects, the power of test also increases and the existing significant difference is revealed better. We can say that linearity and homogeneity of regression slopes are not problem for data analysis by conventional linear ANCOVA model by helping this approach. It can be used fast and efficiently for the presence of one or more covariates.

Prediction of aged red wine aroma properties from aroma chemical composition. Partial least squares regression models.

PubMed

Aznar, Margarita; López, Ricardo; Cacho, Juan; Ferreira, Vicente

2003-04-23

Partial least squares regression (PLSR) models able to predict some of the wine aroma nuances from its chemical composition have been developed. The aromatic sensory characteristics of 57 Spanish aged red wines were determined by 51 experts from the wine industry. The individual descriptions given by the experts were recorded, and the frequency with which a sensory term was used to define a given wine was taken as a measurement of its intensity. The aromatic chemical composition of the wines was determined by already published gas chromatography (GC)-flame ionization detector and GC-mass spectrometry methods. In the whole, 69 odorants were analyzed. Both matrixes, the sensory and chemical data, were simplified by grouping and rearranging correlated sensory terms or chemical compounds and by the exclusion of secondary aroma terms or of weak aroma chemicals. Finally, models were developed for 18 sensory terms and 27 chemicals or groups of chemicals. Satisfactory models, explaining more than 45% of the original variance, could be found for nine of the most important sensory terms (wood-vanillin-cinnamon, animal-leather-phenolic, toasted-coffee, old wood-reduction, vegetal-pepper, raisin-flowery, sweet-candy-cacao, fruity, and berry fruit). For this set of terms, the correlation coefficients between the measured and predicted Y (determined by cross-validation) ranged from 0.62 to 0.81. Models confirmed the existence of complex multivariate relationships between chemicals and odors. In general, pleasant descriptors were positively correlated to chemicals with pleasant aroma, such as vanillin, beta damascenone, or (E)-beta-methyl-gamma-octalactone, and negatively correlated to compounds showing less favorable odor properties, such as 4-ethyl and vinyl phenols, 3-(methylthio)-1-propanol, or phenylacetaldehyde.

The effects of short- and long-term air pollutants on plant phenology and leaf characteristics.

PubMed

Jochner, Susanne; Markevych, Iana; Beck, Isabelle; Traidl-Hoffmann, Claudia; Heinrich, Joachim; Menzel, Annette

2015-11-01

Pollution adversely affects vegetation; however, its impact on phenology and leaf morphology is not satisfactorily understood yet. We analyzed associations between pollutants and phenological data of birch, hazel and horse chestnut in Munich (2010) along with the suitability of leaf morphological parameters of birch for monitoring air pollution using two datasets: cumulated atmospheric concentrations of nitrogen dioxide and ozone derived from passive sampling (short-term exposure) and pollutant information derived from Land Use Regression models (long-term exposure). Partial correlations and stepwise regressions revealed that increased ozone (birch, horse chestnut), NO2, NOx and PM levels (hazel) were significantly related to delays in phenology. Correlations were especially high when rural sites were excluded suggesting a better estimation of long-term within-city pollution. In situ measurements of foliar characteristics of birch were not suitable for bio-monitoring pollution. Inconsistencies between long- and short-term exposure effects suggest some caution when interpreting short-term data collected within field studies. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

RRegrs: an R package for computer-aided model selection with multiple regression models.

PubMed

Tsiliki, Georgia; Munteanu, Cristian R; Seoane, Jose A; Fernandez-Lozano, Carlos; Sarimveis, Haralambos; Willighagen, Egon L

2015-01-01

Predictive regression models can be created with many different modelling approaches. Choices need to be made for data set splitting, cross-validation methods, specific regression parameters and best model criteria, as they all affect the accuracy and efficiency of the produced predictive models, and therefore, raising model reproducibility and comparison issues. Cheminformatics and bioinformatics are extensively using predictive modelling and exhibit a need for standardization of these methodologies in order to assist model selection and speed up the process of predictive model development. A tool accessible to all users, irrespectively of their statistical knowledge, would be valuable if it tests several simple and complex regression models and validation schemes, produce unified reports, and offer the option to be integrated into more extensive studies. Additionally, such methodology should be implemented as a free programming package, in order to be continuously adapted and redistributed by others. We propose an integrated framework for creating multiple regression models, called RRegrs. The tool offers the option of ten simple and complex regression methods combined with repeated 10-fold and leave-one-out cross-validation. Methods include Multiple Linear regression, Generalized Linear Model with Stepwise Feature Selection, Partial Least Squares regression, Lasso regression, and Support Vector Machines Recursive Feature Elimination. The new framework is an automated fully validated procedure which produces standardized reports to quickly oversee the impact of choices in modelling algorithms and assess the model and cross-validation results. The methodology was implemented as an open source R package, available at https://www.github.com/enanomapper/RRegrs, by reusing and extending on the caret package. The universality of the new methodology is demonstrated using five standard data sets from different scientific fields. Its efficiency in cheminformatics and QSAR modelling is shown with three use cases: proteomics data for surface-modified gold nanoparticles, nano-metal oxides descriptor data, and molecular descriptors for acute aquatic toxicity data. The results show that for all data sets RRegrs reports models with equal or better performance for both training and test sets than those reported in the original publications. Its good performance as well as its adaptability in terms of parameter optimization could make RRegrs a popular framework to assist the initial exploration of predictive models, and with that, the design of more comprehensive in silico screening applications.Graphical abstractRRegrs is a computer-aided model selection framework for R multiple regression models; this is a fully validated procedure with application to QSAR modelling.

Classification and regression tree analysis of acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure: Seeing the forest for the trees.

PubMed

Shi, K-Q; Zhou, Y-Y; Yan, H-D; Li, H; Wu, F-L; Xie, Y-Y; Braddock, M; Lin, X-Y; Zheng, M-H

2017-02-01

At present, there is no ideal model for predicting the short-term outcome of patients with acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure (ACHBLF). This study aimed to establish and validate a prognostic model by using the classification and regression tree (CART) analysis. A total of 1047 patients from two separate medical centres with suspected ACHBLF were screened in the study, which were recognized as derivation cohort and validation cohort, respectively. CART analysis was applied to predict the 3-month mortality of patients with ACHBLF. The accuracy of the CART model was tested using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, which was compared with the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score and a new logistic regression model. CART analysis identified four variables as prognostic factors of ACHBLF: total bilirubin, age, serum sodium and INR, and three distinct risk groups: low risk (4.2%), intermediate risk (30.2%-53.2%) and high risk (81.4%-96.9%). The new logistic regression model was constructed with four independent factors, including age, total bilirubin, serum sodium and prothrombin activity by multivariate logistic regression analysis. The performances of the CART model (0.896), similar to the logistic regression model (0.914, P=.382), exceeded that of MELD score (0.667, P<.001). The results were confirmed in the validation cohort. We have developed and validated a novel CART model superior to MELD for predicting three-month mortality of patients with ACHBLF. Thus, the CART model could facilitate medical decision-making and provide clinicians with a validated practical bedside tool for ACHBLF risk stratification. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Building interpretable predictive models for pediatric hospital readmission using Tree-Lasso logistic regression.

PubMed

Jovanovic, Milos; Radovanovic, Sandro; Vukicevic, Milan; Van Poucke, Sven; Delibasic, Boris

2016-09-01

Quantification and early identification of unplanned readmission risk have the potential to improve the quality of care during hospitalization and after discharge. However, high dimensionality, sparsity, and class imbalance of electronic health data and the complexity of risk quantification, challenge the development of accurate predictive models. Predictive models require a certain level of interpretability in order to be applicable in real settings and create actionable insights. This paper aims to develop accurate and interpretable predictive models for readmission in a general pediatric patient population, by integrating a data-driven model (sparse logistic regression) and domain knowledge based on the international classification of diseases 9th-revision clinical modification (ICD-9-CM) hierarchy of diseases. Additionally, we propose a way to quantify the interpretability of a model and inspect the stability of alternative solutions. The analysis was conducted on >66,000 pediatric hospital discharge records from California, State Inpatient Databases, Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project between 2009 and 2011. We incorporated domain knowledge based on the ICD-9-CM hierarchy in a data driven, Tree-Lasso regularized logistic regression model, providing the framework for model interpretation. This approach was compared with traditional Lasso logistic regression resulting in models that are easier to interpret by fewer high-level diagnoses, with comparable prediction accuracy. The results revealed that the use of a Tree-Lasso model was as competitive in terms of accuracy (measured by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve-AUC) as the traditional Lasso logistic regression, but integration with the ICD-9-CM hierarchy of diseases provided more interpretable models in terms of high-level diagnoses. Additionally, interpretations of models are in accordance with existing medical understanding of pediatric readmission. Best performing models have similar performances reaching AUC values 0.783 and 0.779 for traditional Lasso and Tree-Lasso, respectfully. However, information loss of Lasso models is 0.35 bits higher compared to Tree-Lasso model. We propose a method for building predictive models applicable for the detection of readmission risk based on Electronic Health records. Integration of domain knowledge (in the form of ICD-9-CM taxonomy) and a data-driven, sparse predictive algorithm (Tree-Lasso Logistic Regression) resulted in an increase of interpretability of the resulting model. The models are interpreted for the readmission prediction problem in general pediatric population in California, as well as several important subpopulations, and the interpretations of models comply with existing medical understanding of pediatric readmission. Finally, quantitative assessment of the interpretability of the models is given, that is beyond simple counts of selected low-level features. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Differences in Student Evaluations of Limited-Term Lecturers and Full-Time Faculty

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cho, Jeong-Il; Otani, Koichiro; Kim, B. Joon

2014-01-01

This study compared student evaluations of teaching (SET) for limited-term lecturers (LTLs) and full-time faculty (FTF) using a Likert-scaled survey administered to students (N = 1,410) at the end of university courses. Data were analyzed using a general linear regression model to investigate the influence of multi-dimensional evaluation items on…

Economics of Education and Work Life Demand in Terms of Earnings and Skills

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Xia, Belle Selene; Liitiäinen, Elia

2014-01-01

This article uses data from a major international survey to construct earnings functions in terms of learning outcomes and variables related to working life in different European countries. In order to complement the extended earnings regression model, the authors have used partial correlation analysis and the analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) to…

Approaches to Forecasting Demands for Library Network Services. Report No. 10.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kang, Jong Hoa

The problem of forecasting monthly demands for library network services is considered in terms of using forecasts as inputs to policy analysis models, and in terms of using forecasts to aid in the making of budgeting and staffing decisions. Box-Jenkins time-series methodology, adaptive filtering, and regression approaches are examined and compared…

Development and validation of a risk model for long-term mortality after percutaneous coronary intervention: The IDEA-BIO Study.

PubMed

van Boven, Nick; van Domburg, Ron T; Kardys, Isabella; Umans, Victor A; Akkerhuis, K Martijn; Lenzen, Mattie J; Valgimigli, Marco; Daemen, Joost; Zijlstra, Felix; Boersma, Eric; van Geuns, Robert-Jan

2018-03-01

We aimed to develop a model to predict long-term mortality after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI), to aid in selecting patients with sufficient life expectancy to benefit from bioabsorbable scaffolds. Clinical trials are currently designed to demonstrate superiority of bioabsorbable scaffolds over metal devices up to 5 years after implantation. From 2000 to 2011, 19.532 consecutive patients underwent PCI in a tertiary referral hospital. Patients were randomly (2:1) divided into a training (N = 13,090) and validation (N = 6,442) set. Cox regression was used to identify determinants of long-term mortality in the training set and used to develop a risk model. Model performance was studied in the training and validation dataset. Median age was 63 years (IQR 54-72) and 72% were men. Median follow-up was 3.6 years (interquartile range [IQR] 2.4-6.8). The ratio elective vs. non-elective PCIs was 42/58. During 88,620 patient-years of follow-up, 3,156 deaths occurred, implying an incidence rate of 35.6 per 1,000. Estimated 5-year mortality was 12.9%.Regression analysis revealed age, body mass index, diabetes mellitus, renal insufficiency, prior myocardial infarction, PCI indication, lesion location, number of diseased vessels and cardiogenic shock at presentation as determinants of mortality. The long-term risk model showed good discrimination in the training and validation sets (c-indices 0.76 and 0.74), whereas calibration was appropriate. A simple risk model, containing 9 baseline clinical and angiographic variables effectively predicts long-term mortality after PCI and may possibly be used to select suitable patients for bioabsorbable scaffolds. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Time series regression model for infectious disease and weather.

PubMed

Imai, Chisato; Armstrong, Ben; Chalabi, Zaid; Mangtani, Punam; Hashizume, Masahiro

2015-10-01

Time series regression has been developed and long used to evaluate the short-term associations of air pollution and weather with mortality or morbidity of non-infectious diseases. The application of the regression approaches from this tradition to infectious diseases, however, is less well explored and raises some new issues. We discuss and present potential solutions for five issues often arising in such analyses: changes in immune population, strong autocorrelations, a wide range of plausible lag structures and association patterns, seasonality adjustments, and large overdispersion. The potential approaches are illustrated with datasets of cholera cases and rainfall from Bangladesh and influenza and temperature in Tokyo. Though this article focuses on the application of the traditional time series regression to infectious diseases and weather factors, we also briefly introduce alternative approaches, including mathematical modeling, wavelet analysis, and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models. Modifications proposed to standard time series regression practice include using sums of past cases as proxies for the immune population, and using the logarithm of lagged disease counts to control autocorrelation due to true contagion, both of which are motivated from "susceptible-infectious-recovered" (SIR) models. The complexity of lag structures and association patterns can often be informed by biological mechanisms and explored by using distributed lag non-linear models. For overdispersed models, alternative distribution models such as quasi-Poisson and negative binomial should be considered. Time series regression can be used to investigate dependence of infectious diseases on weather, but may need modifying to allow for features specific to this context. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Discriminative least squares regression for multiclass classification and feature selection.

PubMed

Xiang, Shiming; Nie, Feiping; Meng, Gaofeng; Pan, Chunhong; Zhang, Changshui

2012-11-01

This paper presents a framework of discriminative least squares regression (LSR) for multiclass classification and feature selection. The core idea is to enlarge the distance between different classes under the conceptual framework of LSR. First, a technique called ε-dragging is introduced to force the regression targets of different classes moving along opposite directions such that the distances between classes can be enlarged. Then, the ε-draggings are integrated into the LSR model for multiclass classification. Our learning framework, referred to as discriminative LSR, has a compact model form, where there is no need to train two-class machines that are independent of each other. With its compact form, this model can be naturally extended for feature selection. This goal is achieved in terms of L2,1 norm of matrix, generating a sparse learning model for feature selection. The model for multiclass classification and its extension for feature selection are finally solved elegantly and efficiently. Experimental evaluation over a range of benchmark datasets indicates the validity of our method.

Toward customer-centric organizational science: A common language effect size indicator for multiple linear regressions and regressions with higher-order terms.

PubMed

Krasikova, Dina V; Le, Huy; Bachura, Eric

2018-06-01

To address a long-standing concern regarding a gap between organizational science and practice, scholars called for more intuitive and meaningful ways of communicating research results to users of academic research. In this article, we develop a common language effect size index (CLβ) that can help translate research results to practice. We demonstrate how CLβ can be computed and used to interpret the effects of continuous and categorical predictors in multiple linear regression models. We also elaborate on how the proposed CLβ index is computed and used to interpret interactions and nonlinear effects in regression models. In addition, we test the robustness of the proposed index to violations of normality and provide means for computing standard errors and constructing confidence intervals around its estimates. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Geodesic regression on orientation distribution functions with its application to an aging study.

PubMed

Du, Jia; Goh, Alvina; Kushnarev, Sergey; Qiu, Anqi

2014-02-15

In this paper, we treat orientation distribution functions (ODFs) derived from high angular resolution diffusion imaging (HARDI) as elements of a Riemannian manifold and present a method for geodesic regression on this manifold. In order to find the optimal regression model, we pose this as a least-squares problem involving the sum-of-squared geodesic distances between observed ODFs and their model fitted data. We derive the appropriate gradient terms and employ gradient descent to find the minimizer of this least-squares optimization problem. In addition, we show how to perform statistical testing for determining the significance of the relationship between the manifold-valued regressors and the real-valued regressands. Experiments on both synthetic and real human data are presented. In particular, we examine aging effects on HARDI via geodesic regression of ODFs in normal adults aged 22 years old and above. © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Fatigue design of a cellular phone folder using regression model-based multi-objective optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Young Gyun; Lee, Jongsoo

2016-08-01

In a folding cellular phone, the folding device is repeatedly opened and closed by the user, which eventually results in fatigue damage, particularly to the front of the folder. Hence, it is important to improve the safety and endurance of the folder while also reducing its weight. This article presents an optimal design for the folder front that maximizes its fatigue endurance while minimizing its thickness. Design data for analysis and optimization were obtained experimentally using a test jig. Multi-objective optimization was carried out using a nonlinear regression model. Three regression methods were employed: back-propagation neural networks, logistic regression and support vector machines. The AdaBoost ensemble technique was also used to improve the approximation. Two-objective Pareto-optimal solutions were identified using the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGA-II). Finally, a numerically optimized solution was validated against experimental product data, in terms of both fatigue endurance and thickness index.

Logistic LASSO regression for the diagnosis of breast cancer using clinical demographic data and the BI-RADS lexicon for ultrasonography.

PubMed

Kim, Sun Mi; Kim, Yongdai; Jeong, Kuhwan; Jeong, Heeyeong; Kim, Jiyoung

2018-01-01

The aim of this study was to compare the performance of image analysis for predicting breast cancer using two distinct regression models and to evaluate the usefulness of incorporating clinical and demographic data (CDD) into the image analysis in order to improve the diagnosis of breast cancer. This study included 139 solid masses from 139 patients who underwent a ultrasonography-guided core biopsy and had available CDD between June 2009 and April 2010. Three breast radiologists retrospectively reviewed 139 breast masses and described each lesion using the Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System (BI-RADS) lexicon. We applied and compared two regression methods-stepwise logistic (SL) regression and logistic least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression-in which the BI-RADS descriptors and CDD were used as covariates. We investigated the performances of these regression methods and the agreement of radiologists in terms of test misclassification error and the area under the curve (AUC) of the tests. Logistic LASSO regression was superior (P<0.05) to SL regression, regardless of whether CDD was included in the covariates, in terms of test misclassification errors (0.234 vs. 0.253, without CDD; 0.196 vs. 0.258, with CDD) and AUC (0.785 vs. 0.759, without CDD; 0.873 vs. 0.735, with CDD). However, it was inferior (P<0.05) to the agreement of three radiologists in terms of test misclassification errors (0.234 vs. 0.168, without CDD; 0.196 vs. 0.088, with CDD) and the AUC without CDD (0.785 vs. 0.844, P<0.001), but was comparable to the AUC with CDD (0.873 vs. 0.880, P=0.141). Logistic LASSO regression based on BI-RADS descriptors and CDD showed better performance than SL in predicting the presence of breast cancer. The use of CDD as a supplement to the BI-RADS descriptors significantly improved the prediction of breast cancer using logistic LASSO regression.

Comparison of Survival Models for Analyzing Prognostic Factors in Gastric Cancer Patients

PubMed

Habibi, Danial; Rafiei, Mohammad; Chehrei, Ali; Shayan, Zahra; Tafaqodi, Soheil

2018-03-27

Objective: There are a number of models for determining risk factors for survival of patients with gastric cancer. This study was conducted to select the model showing the best fit with available data. Methods: Cox regression and parametric models (Exponential, Weibull, Gompertz, Log normal, Log logistic and Generalized Gamma) were utilized in unadjusted and adjusted forms to detect factors influencing mortality of patients. Comparisons were made with Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) by using STATA 13 and R 3.1.3 softwares. Results: The results of this study indicated that all parametric models outperform the Cox regression model. The Log normal, Log logistic and Generalized Gamma provided the best performance in terms of AIC values (179.2, 179.4 and 181.1, respectively). On unadjusted analysis, the results of the Cox regression and parametric models indicated stage, grade, largest diameter of metastatic nest, largest diameter of LM, number of involved lymph nodes and the largest ratio of metastatic nests to lymph nodes, to be variables influencing the survival of patients with gastric cancer. On adjusted analysis, according to the best model (log normal), grade was found as the significant variable. Conclusion: The results suggested that all parametric models outperform the Cox model. The log normal model provides the best fit and is a good substitute for Cox regression. Creative Commons Attribution License

A general regression framework for a secondary outcome in case-control studies.

PubMed

Tchetgen Tchetgen, Eric J

2014-01-01

Modern case-control studies typically involve the collection of data on a large number of outcomes, often at considerable logistical and monetary expense. These data are of potentially great value to subsequent researchers, who, although not necessarily concerned with the disease that defined the case series in the original study, may want to use the available information for a regression analysis involving a secondary outcome. Because cases and controls are selected with unequal probability, regression analysis involving a secondary outcome generally must acknowledge the sampling design. In this paper, the author presents a new framework for the analysis of secondary outcomes in case-control studies. The approach is based on a careful re-parameterization of the conditional model for the secondary outcome given the case-control outcome and regression covariates, in terms of (a) the population regression of interest of the secondary outcome given covariates and (b) the population regression of the case-control outcome on covariates. The error distribution for the secondary outcome given covariates and case-control status is otherwise unrestricted. For a continuous outcome, the approach sometimes reduces to extending model (a) by including a residual of (b) as a covariate. However, the framework is general in the sense that models (a) and (b) can take any functional form, and the methodology allows for an identity, log or logit link function for model (a).

Developing a dengue forecast model using machine learning: A case study in China.

PubMed

Guo, Pi; Liu, Tao; Zhang, Qin; Wang, Li; Xiao, Jianpeng; Zhang, Qingying; Luo, Ganfeng; Li, Zhihao; He, Jianfeng; Zhang, Yonghui; Ma, Wenjun

2017-10-01

In China, dengue remains an important public health issue with expanded areas and increased incidence recently. Accurate and timely forecasts of dengue incidence in China are still lacking. We aimed to use the state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms to develop an accurate predictive model of dengue. Weekly dengue cases, Baidu search queries and climate factors (mean temperature, relative humidity and rainfall) during 2011-2014 in Guangdong were gathered. A dengue search index was constructed for developing the predictive models in combination with climate factors. The observed year and week were also included in the models to control for the long-term trend and seasonality. Several machine learning algorithms, including the support vector regression (SVR) algorithm, step-down linear regression model, gradient boosted regression tree algorithm (GBM), negative binomial regression model (NBM), least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) linear regression model and generalized additive model (GAM), were used as candidate models to predict dengue incidence. Performance and goodness of fit of the models were assessed using the root-mean-square error (RMSE) and R-squared measures. The residuals of the models were examined using the autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation function analyses to check the validity of the models. The models were further validated using dengue surveillance data from five other provinces. The epidemics during the last 12 weeks and the peak of the 2014 large outbreak were accurately forecasted by the SVR model selected by a cross-validation technique. Moreover, the SVR model had the consistently smallest prediction error rates for tracking the dynamics of dengue and forecasting the outbreaks in other areas in China. The proposed SVR model achieved a superior performance in comparison with other forecasting techniques assessed in this study. The findings can help the government and community respond early to dengue epidemics.

Modeling and Analysis of Process Parameters for Evaluating Shrinkage Problems During Plastic Injection Molding of a DVD-ROM Cover

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Öktem, H.

2012-01-01

Plastic injection molding plays a key role in the production of high-quality plastic parts. Shrinkage is one of the most significant problems of a plastic part in terms of quality in the plastic injection molding. This article focuses on the study of the modeling and analysis of the effects of process parameters on the shrinkage by evaluating the quality of the plastic part of a DVD-ROM cover made with Acrylonitrile Butadiene Styrene (ABS) polymer material. An effective regression model was developed to determine the mathematical relationship between the process parameters (mold temperature, melt temperature, injection pressure, injection time, and cooling time) and the volumetric shrinkage by utilizing the analysis data. Finite element (FE) analyses designed by Taguchi (L27) orthogonal arrays were run in the Moldflow simulation program. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) was then performed to check the adequacy of the regression model and to determine the effect of the process parameters on the shrinkage. Experiments were conducted to control the accuracy of the regression model with the FE analyses obtained from Moldflow. The results show that the regression model agrees very well with the FE analyses and the experiments. From this, it can be concluded that this study succeeded in modeling the shrinkage problem in our application.

Three methods to construct predictive models using logistic regression and likelihood ratios to facilitate adjustment for pretest probability give similar results.

PubMed

Chan, Siew Foong; Deeks, Jonathan J; Macaskill, Petra; Irwig, Les

2008-01-01

To compare three predictive models based on logistic regression to estimate adjusted likelihood ratios allowing for interdependency between diagnostic variables (tests). This study was a review of the theoretical basis, assumptions, and limitations of published models; and a statistical extension of methods and application to a case study of the diagnosis of obstructive airways disease based on history and clinical examination. Albert's method includes an offset term to estimate an adjusted likelihood ratio for combinations of tests. Spiegelhalter and Knill-Jones method uses the unadjusted likelihood ratio for each test as a predictor and computes shrinkage factors to allow for interdependence. Knottnerus' method differs from the other methods because it requires sequencing of tests, which limits its application to situations where there are few tests and substantial data. Although parameter estimates differed between the models, predicted "posttest" probabilities were generally similar. Construction of predictive models using logistic regression is preferred to the independence Bayes' approach when it is important to adjust for dependency of tests errors. Methods to estimate adjusted likelihood ratios from predictive models should be considered in preference to a standard logistic regression model to facilitate ease of interpretation and application. Albert's method provides the most straightforward approach.

Serum levels of the immune activation marker neopterin change with age and gender and are modified by race, BMI, and percentage of body fat.

PubMed

Spencer, Monique E; Jain, Alka; Matteini, Amy; Beamer, Brock A; Wang, Nae-Yuh; Leng, Sean X; Punjabi, Naresh M; Walston, Jeremy D; Fedarko, Neal S

2010-08-01

Neopterin, a GTP metabolite expressed by macrophages, is a marker of immune activation. We hypothesize that levels of this serum marker alter with donor age, reflecting increased chronic immune activation in normal aging. In addition to age, we assessed gender, race, body mass index (BMI), and percentage of body fat (%fat) as potential covariates. Serum was obtained from 426 healthy participants whose age ranged from 18 to 87 years. Anthropometric measures included %fat and BMI. Neopterin concentrations were measured by competitive ELISA. The paired associations between neopterin and age, BMI, or %fat were analyzed by Spearman's correlation or by linear regression of log-transformed neopterin, whereas overall associations were modeled by multiple regression of log-transformed neopterin as a function of age, gender, race, BMI, %fat, and interaction terms. Across all participants, neopterin exhibited a positive association with age, BMI, and %fat. Multiple regression modeling of neopterin in women and men as a function of age, BMI, and race revealed that each covariate contributed significantly to neopterin values and that optimal modeling required an interaction term between race and BMI. The covariate %fat was highly correlated with BMI and could be substituted for BMI to yield similar regression coefficients. The association of age and gender with neopterin levels and their modification by race, BMI, or %fat reflect the biology underlying chronic immune activation and perhaps gender differences in disease incidence, morbidity, and mortality.

Advanced colorectal neoplasia risk stratification by penalized logistic regression.

PubMed

Lin, Yunzhi; Yu, Menggang; Wang, Sijian; Chappell, Richard; Imperiale, Thomas F

2016-08-01

Colorectal cancer is the second leading cause of death from cancer in the United States. To facilitate the efficiency of colorectal cancer screening, there is a need to stratify risk for colorectal cancer among the 90% of US residents who are considered "average risk." In this article, we investigate such risk stratification rules for advanced colorectal neoplasia (colorectal cancer and advanced, precancerous polyps). We use a recently completed large cohort study of subjects who underwent a first screening colonoscopy. Logistic regression models have been used in the literature to estimate the risk of advanced colorectal neoplasia based on quantifiable risk factors. However, logistic regression may be prone to overfitting and instability in variable selection. Since most of the risk factors in our study have several categories, it was tempting to collapse these categories into fewer risk groups. We propose a penalized logistic regression method that automatically and simultaneously selects variables, groups categories, and estimates their coefficients by penalizing the [Formula: see text]-norm of both the coefficients and their differences. Hence, it encourages sparsity in the categories, i.e. grouping of the categories, and sparsity in the variables, i.e. variable selection. We apply the penalized logistic regression method to our data. The important variables are selected, with close categories simultaneously grouped, by penalized regression models with and without the interactions terms. The models are validated with 10-fold cross-validation. The receiver operating characteristic curves of the penalized regression models dominate the receiver operating characteristic curve of naive logistic regressions, indicating a superior discriminative performance. © The Author(s) 2013.

Reconstruction of missing daily streamflow data using dynamic regression models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tencaliec, Patricia; Favre, Anne-Catherine; Prieur, Clémentine; Mathevet, Thibault

2015-12-01

River discharge is one of the most important quantities in hydrology. It provides fundamental records for water resources management and climate change monitoring. Even very short data-gaps in this information can cause extremely different analysis outputs. Therefore, reconstructing missing data of incomplete data sets is an important step regarding the performance of the environmental models, engineering, and research applications, thus it presents a great challenge. The objective of this paper is to introduce an effective technique for reconstructing missing daily discharge data when one has access to only daily streamflow data. The proposed procedure uses a combination of regression and autoregressive integrated moving average models (ARIMA) called dynamic regression model. This model uses the linear relationship between neighbor and correlated stations and then adjusts the residual term by fitting an ARIMA structure. Application of the model to eight daily streamflow data for the Durance river watershed showed that the model yields reliable estimates for the missing data in the time series. Simulation studies were also conducted to evaluate the performance of the procedure.

Importance of spatial autocorrelation in modeling bird distributions at a continental scale

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bahn, V.; O'Connor, R.J.; Krohn, W.B.

2006-01-01

Spatial autocorrelation in species' distributions has been recognized as inflating the probability of a type I error in hypotheses tests, causing biases in variable selection, and violating the assumption of independence of error terms in models such as correlation or regression. However, it remains unclear whether these problems occur at all spatial resolutions and extents, and under which conditions spatially explicit modeling techniques are superior. Our goal was to determine whether spatial models were superior at large extents and across many different species. In addition, we investigated the importance of purely spatial effects in distribution patterns relative to the variation that could be explained through environmental conditions. We studied distribution patterns of 108 bird species in the conterminous United States using ten years of data from the Breeding Bird Survey. We compared the performance of spatially explicit regression models with non-spatial regression models using Akaike's information criterion. In addition, we partitioned the variance in species distributions into an environmental, a pure spatial and a shared component. The spatially-explicit conditional autoregressive regression models strongly outperformed the ordinary least squares regression models. In addition, partialling out the spatial component underlying the species' distributions showed that an average of 17% of the explained variation could be attributed to purely spatial effects independent of the spatial autocorrelation induced by the underlying environmental variables. We concluded that location in the range and neighborhood play an important role in the distribution of species. Spatially explicit models are expected to yield better predictions especially for mobile species such as birds, even in coarse-grained models with a large extent. ?? Ecography.

A Poisson regression approach to model monthly hail occurrence in Northern Switzerland using large-scale environmental variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Madonna, Erica; Ginsbourger, David; Martius, Olivia

2018-05-01

In Switzerland, hail regularly causes substantial damage to agriculture, cars and infrastructure, however, little is known about its long-term variability. To study the variability, the monthly number of days with hail in northern Switzerland is modeled in a regression framework using large-scale predictors derived from ERA-Interim reanalysis. The model is developed and verified using radar-based hail observations for the extended summer season (April-September) in the period 2002-2014. The seasonality of hail is explicitly modeled with a categorical predictor (month) and monthly anomalies of several large-scale predictors are used to capture the year-to-year variability. Several regression models are applied and their performance tested with respect to standard scores and cross-validation. The chosen model includes four predictors: the monthly anomaly of the two meter temperature, the monthly anomaly of the logarithm of the convective available potential energy (CAPE), the monthly anomaly of the wind shear and the month. This model well captures the intra-annual variability and slightly underestimates its inter-annual variability. The regression model is applied to the reanalysis data back in time to 1980. The resulting hail day time series shows an increase of the number of hail days per month, which is (in the model) related to an increase in temperature and CAPE. The trend corresponds to approximately 0.5 days per month per decade. The results of the regression model have been compared to two independent data sets. All data sets agree on the sign of the trend, but the trend is weaker in the other data sets.

Economics of human performance and systems total ownership cost.

PubMed

Onkham, Wilawan; Karwowski, Waldemar; Ahram, Tareq Z

2012-01-01

Financial costs of investing in people is associated with training, acquisition, recruiting, and resolving human errors have a significant impact on increased total ownership costs. These costs can also affect the exaggerate budgets and delayed schedules. The study of human performance economical assessment in the system acquisition process enhances the visibility of hidden cost drivers which support program management informed decisions. This paper presents the literature review of human total ownership cost (HTOC) and cost impacts on overall system performance. Economic value assessment models such as cost benefit analysis, risk-cost tradeoff analysis, expected value of utility function analysis (EV), growth readiness matrix, multi-attribute utility technique, and multi-regressions model were introduced to reflect the HTOC and human performance-technology tradeoffs in terms of the dollar value. The human total ownership regression model introduces to address the influencing human performance cost component measurement. Results from this study will increase understanding of relevant cost drivers in the system acquisition process over the long term.

On the potential of models for location and scale for genome-wide DNA methylation data

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background With the help of epigenome-wide association studies (EWAS), increasing knowledge on the role of epigenetic mechanisms such as DNA methylation in disease processes is obtained. In addition, EWAS aid the understanding of behavioral and environmental effects on DNA methylation. In terms of statistical analysis, specific challenges arise from the characteristics of methylation data. First, methylation β-values represent proportions with skewed and heteroscedastic distributions. Thus, traditional modeling strategies assuming a normally distributed response might not be appropriate. Second, recent evidence suggests that not only mean differences but also variability in site-specific DNA methylation associates with diseases, including cancer. The purpose of this study was to compare different modeling strategies for methylation data in terms of model performance and performance of downstream hypothesis tests. Specifically, we used the generalized additive models for location, scale and shape (GAMLSS) framework to compare beta regression with Gaussian regression on raw, binary logit and arcsine square root transformed methylation data, with and without modeling a covariate effect on the scale parameter. Results Using simulated and real data from a large population-based study and an independent sample of cancer patients and healthy controls, we show that beta regression does not outperform competing strategies in terms of model performance. In addition, Gaussian models for location and scale showed an improved performance as compared to models for location only. The best performance was observed for the Gaussian model on binary logit transformed β-values, referred to as M-values. Our results further suggest that models for location and scale are specifically sensitive towards violations of the distribution assumption and towards outliers in the methylation data. Therefore, a resampling procedure is proposed as a mode of inference and shown to diminish type I error rate in practically relevant settings. We apply the proposed method in an EWAS of BMI and age and reveal strong associations of age with methylation variability that are validated in an independent sample. Conclusions Models for location and scale are promising tools for EWAS that may help to understand the influence of environmental factors and disease-related phenotypes on methylation variability and its role during disease development. PMID:24994026

Data-driven discovery of partial differential equations

PubMed Central

Rudy, Samuel H.; Brunton, Steven L.; Proctor, Joshua L.; Kutz, J. Nathan

2017-01-01

We propose a sparse regression method capable of discovering the governing partial differential equation(s) of a given system by time series measurements in the spatial domain. The regression framework relies on sparsity-promoting techniques to select the nonlinear and partial derivative terms of the governing equations that most accurately represent the data, bypassing a combinatorially large search through all possible candidate models. The method balances model complexity and regression accuracy by selecting a parsimonious model via Pareto analysis. Time series measurements can be made in an Eulerian framework, where the sensors are fixed spatially, or in a Lagrangian framework, where the sensors move with the dynamics. The method is computationally efficient, robust, and demonstrated to work on a variety of canonical problems spanning a number of scientific domains including Navier-Stokes, the quantum harmonic oscillator, and the diffusion equation. Moreover, the method is capable of disambiguating between potentially nonunique dynamical terms by using multiple time series taken with different initial data. Thus, for a traveling wave, the method can distinguish between a linear wave equation and the Korteweg–de Vries equation, for instance. The method provides a promising new technique for discovering governing equations and physical laws in parameterized spatiotemporal systems, where first-principles derivations are intractable. PMID:28508044

Estimated long-term outdoor air pollution concentrations in a cohort study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beelen, Rob; Hoek, Gerard; Fischer, Paul; Brandt, Piet A. van den; Brunekreef, Bert

Several recent studies associated long-term exposure to air pollution with increased mortality. An ongoing cohort study, the Netherlands Cohort Study on Diet and Cancer (NLCS), was used to study the association between long-term exposure to traffic-related air pollution and mortality. Following on a previous exposure assessment study in the NLCS, we improved the exposure assessment methods. Long-term exposure to nitrogen dioxide (NO 2), nitrogen oxide (NO), black smoke (BS), and sulphur dioxide (SO 2) was estimated. Exposure at each home address ( N=21 868) was considered as a function of a regional, an urban and a local component. The regional component was estimated using inverse distance weighed interpolation of measurement data from regional background sites in a national monitoring network. Regression models with urban concentrations as dependent variables, and number of inhabitants in different buffers and land use variables, derived with a Geographic Information System (GIS), as predictor variables were used to estimate the urban component. The local component was assessed using a GIS and a digital road network with linked traffic intensities. Traffic intensity on the nearest road and on the nearest major road, and the sum of traffic intensity in a buffer of 100 m around each home address were assessed. Further, a quantitative estimate of the local component was estimated. The regression models to estimate the urban component explained 67%, 46%, 49% and 35% of the variances of NO 2, NO, BS, and SO 2 concentrations, respectively. Overall regression models which incorporated the regional, urban and local component explained 84%, 44%, 59% and 56% of the variability in concentrations for NO 2, NO, BS and SO 2, respectively. We were able to develop an exposure assessment model using GIS methods and traffic intensities that explained a large part of the variations in outdoor air pollution concentrations.

40 CFR 80.48 - Augmentation of the complex emission model by vehicle testing.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... section, the analysis shall fit a regression model to a combined data set that includes vehicle testing... logarithm of emissions contained in this combined data set: (A) A term for each vehicle that shall reflect... nearest limit of the data core, using the unaugmented complex model. (B) “B” shall be set equal to the...

40 CFR 80.48 - Augmentation of the complex emission model by vehicle testing.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... section, the analysis shall fit a regression model to a combined data set that includes vehicle testing... logarithm of emissions contained in this combined data set: (A) A term for each vehicle that shall reflect... nearest limit of the data core, using the unaugmented complex model. (B) “B” shall be set equal to the...

40 CFR 80.48 - Augmentation of the complex emission model by vehicle testing.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... section, the analysis shall fit a regression model to a combined data set that includes vehicle testing... logarithm of emissions contained in this combined data set: (A) A term for each vehicle that shall reflect... nearest limit of the data core, using the unaugmented complex model. (B) “B” shall be set equal to the...

40 CFR 80.48 - Augmentation of the complex emission model by vehicle testing.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... section, the analysis shall fit a regression model to a combined data set that includes vehicle testing... logarithm of emissions contained in this combined data set: (A) A term for each vehicle that shall reflect... nearest limit of the data core, using the unaugmented complex model. (B) “B” shall be set equal to the...

40 CFR 80.48 - Augmentation of the complex emission model by vehicle testing.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... section, the analysis shall fit a regression model to a combined data set that includes vehicle testing... logarithm of emissions contained in this combined data set: (A) A term for each vehicle that shall reflect... nearest limit of the data core, using the unaugmented complex model. (B) “B” shall be set equal to the...

Pan evaporation modeling using six different heuristic computing methods in different climates of China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Lunche; Kisi, Ozgur; Zounemat-Kermani, Mohammad; Li, Hui

2017-01-01

Pan evaporation (Ep) plays important roles in agricultural water resources management. One of the basic challenges is modeling Ep using limited climatic parameters because there are a number of factors affecting the evaporation rate. This study investigated the abilities of six different soft computing methods, multi-layer perceptron (MLP), generalized regression neural network (GRNN), fuzzy genetic (FG), least square support vector machine (LSSVM), multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARS), adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems with grid partition (ANFIS-GP), and two regression methods, multiple linear regression (MLR) and Stephens and Stewart model (SS) in predicting monthly Ep. Long-term climatic data at various sites crossing a wide range of climates during 1961-2000 are used for model development and validation. The results showed that the models have different accuracies in different climates and the MLP model performed superior to the other models in predicting monthly Ep at most stations using local input combinations (for example, the MAE (mean absolute errors), RMSE (root mean square errors), and determination coefficient (R2) are 0.314 mm/day, 0.405 mm/day and 0.988, respectively for HEB station), while GRNN model performed better in Tibetan Plateau (MAE, RMSE and R2 are 0.459 mm/day, 0.592 mm/day and 0.932, respectively). The accuracies of above models ranked as: MLP, GRNN, LSSVM, FG, ANFIS-GP, MARS and MLR. The overall results indicated that the soft computing techniques generally performed better than the regression methods, but MLR and SS models can be more preferred at some climatic zones instead of complex nonlinear models, for example, the BJ (Beijing), CQ (Chongqing) and HK (Haikou) stations. Therefore, it can be concluded that Ep could be successfully predicted using above models in hydrological modeling studies.

Short-term electric power demand forecasting based on economic-electricity transmission model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Wenfeng; Bai, Hongkun; Liu, Wei; Liu, Yongmin; Wang, Yubin Mao; Wang, Jiangbo; He, Dandan

2018-04-01

Short-term electricity demand forecasting is the basic work to ensure safe operation of the power system. In this paper, a practical economic electricity transmission model (EETM) is built. With the intelligent adaptive modeling capabilities of Prognoz Platform 7.2, the econometric model consists of three industrial added value and income levels is firstly built, the electricity demand transmission model is also built. By multiple regression, moving averages and seasonal decomposition, the problem of multiple correlations between variables is effectively overcome in EETM. The validity of EETM is proved by comparison with the actual value of Henan Province. Finally, EETM model is used to forecast the electricity consumption of the 1-4 quarter of 2018.

Novel point estimation from a semiparametric ratio estimator (SPRE): long-term health outcomes from short-term linear data, with application to weight loss in obesity.

PubMed

Weissman-Miller, Deborah

2013-11-02

Point estimation is particularly important in predicting weight loss in individuals or small groups. In this analysis, a new health response function is based on a model of human response over time to estimate long-term health outcomes from a change point in short-term linear regression. This important estimation capability is addressed for small groups and single-subject designs in pilot studies for clinical trials, medical and therapeutic clinical practice. These estimations are based on a change point given by parameters derived from short-term participant data in ordinary least squares (OLS) regression. The development of the change point in initial OLS data and the point estimations are given in a new semiparametric ratio estimator (SPRE) model. The new response function is taken as a ratio of two-parameter Weibull distributions times a prior outcome value that steps estimated outcomes forward in time, where the shape and scale parameters are estimated at the change point. The Weibull distributions used in this ratio are derived from a Kelvin model in mechanics taken here to represent human beings. A distinct feature of the SPRE model in this article is that initial treatment response for a small group or a single subject is reflected in long-term response to treatment. This model is applied to weight loss in obesity in a secondary analysis of data from a classic weight loss study, which has been selected due to the dramatic increase in obesity in the United States over the past 20 years. A very small relative error of estimated to test data is shown for obesity treatment with the weight loss medication phentermine or placebo for the test dataset. An application of SPRE in clinical medicine or occupational therapy is to estimate long-term weight loss for a single subject or a small group near the beginning of treatment.

Distributed Monitoring of the R(sup 2) Statistic for Linear Regression

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bhaduri, Kanishka; Das, Kamalika; Giannella, Chris R.

2011-01-01

The problem of monitoring a multivariate linear regression model is relevant in studying the evolving relationship between a set of input variables (features) and one or more dependent target variables. This problem becomes challenging for large scale data in a distributed computing environment when only a subset of instances is available at individual nodes and the local data changes frequently. Data centralization and periodic model recomputation can add high overhead to tasks like anomaly detection in such dynamic settings. Therefore, the goal is to develop techniques for monitoring and updating the model over the union of all nodes data in a communication-efficient fashion. Correctness guarantees on such techniques are also often highly desirable, especially in safety-critical application scenarios. In this paper we develop DReMo a distributed algorithm with very low resource overhead, for monitoring the quality of a regression model in terms of its coefficient of determination (R2 statistic). When the nodes collectively determine that R2 has dropped below a fixed threshold, the linear regression model is recomputed via a network-wide convergecast and the updated model is broadcast back to all nodes. We show empirically, using both synthetic and real data, that our proposed method is highly communication-efficient and scalable, and also provide theoretical guarantees on correctness.

Regionalization of harmonic-mean streamflows in Kentucky

USGS Publications Warehouse

Martin, Gary R.; Ruhl, Kevin J.

1993-01-01

Harmonic-mean streamflow (Qh), defined as the reciprocal of the arithmetic mean of the reciprocal daily streamflow values, was determined for selected stream sites in Kentucky. Daily mean discharges for the available period of record through the 1989 water year at 230 continuous record streamflow-gaging stations located in and adjacent to Kentucky were used in the analysis. Periods of record affected by regulation were identified and analyzed separately from periods of record unaffected by regulation. Record-extension procedures were applied to short-term stations to reducetime-sampling error and, thus, improve estimates of the long-term Qh. Techniques to estimate the Qh at ungaged stream sites in Kentucky were developed. A regression model relating Qh to total drainage area and streamflow-variability index was presented with example applications. The regression model has a standard error of estimate of 76 percent and a standard error of prediction of 78 percent.

Watershed Regressions for Pesticides (WARP) for Predicting Annual Maximum and Annual Maximum Moving-Average Concentrations of Atrazine in Streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stone, Wesley W.; Gilliom, Robert J.; Crawford, Charles G.

2008-01-01

Regression models were developed for predicting annual maximum and selected annual maximum moving-average concentrations of atrazine in streams using the Watershed Regressions for Pesticides (WARP) methodology developed by the National Water-Quality Assessment Program (NAWQA) of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). The current effort builds on the original WARP models, which were based on the annual mean and selected percentiles of the annual frequency distribution of atrazine concentrations. Estimates of annual maximum and annual maximum moving-average concentrations for selected durations are needed to characterize the levels of atrazine and other pesticides for comparison to specific water-quality benchmarks for evaluation of potential concerns regarding human health or aquatic life. Separate regression models were derived for the annual maximum and annual maximum 21-day, 60-day, and 90-day moving-average concentrations. Development of the regression models used the same explanatory variables, transformations, model development data, model validation data, and regression methods as those used in the original development of WARP. The models accounted for 72 to 75 percent of the variability in the concentration statistics among the 112 sampling sites used for model development. Predicted concentration statistics from the four models were within a factor of 10 of the observed concentration statistics for most of the model development and validation sites. Overall, performance of the models for the development and validation sites supports the application of the WARP models for predicting annual maximum and selected annual maximum moving-average atrazine concentration in streams and provides a framework to interpret the predictions in terms of uncertainty. For streams with inadequate direct measurements of atrazine concentrations, the WARP model predictions for the annual maximum and the annual maximum moving-average atrazine concentrations can be used to characterize the probable levels of atrazine for comparison to specific water-quality benchmarks. Sites with a high probability of exceeding a benchmark for human health or aquatic life can be prioritized for monitoring.

Modelling the breeding of Aedes Albopictus species in an urban area in Pulau Pinang using polynomial regression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salleh, Nur Hanim Mohd; Ali, Zalila; Noor, Norlida Mohd.; Baharum, Adam; Saad, Ahmad Ramli; Sulaiman, Husna Mahirah; Ahmad, Wan Muhamad Amir W.

2014-07-01

Polynomial regression is used to model a curvilinear relationship between a response variable and one or more predictor variables. It is a form of a least squares linear regression model that predicts a single response variable by decomposing the predictor variables into an nth order polynomial. In a curvilinear relationship, each curve has a number of extreme points equal to the highest order term in the polynomial. A quadratic model will have either a single maximum or minimum, whereas a cubic model has both a relative maximum and a minimum. This study used quadratic modeling techniques to analyze the effects of environmental factors: temperature, relative humidity, and rainfall distribution on the breeding of Aedes albopictus, a type of Aedes mosquito. Data were collected at an urban area in south-west Penang from September 2010 until January 2011. The results indicated that the breeding of Aedes albopictus in the urban area is influenced by all three environmental characteristics. The number of mosquito eggs is estimated to reach a maximum value at a medium temperature, a medium relative humidity and a high rainfall distribution.

Fuzzy regression modeling for tool performance prediction and degradation detection.

PubMed

Li, X; Er, M J; Lim, B S; Zhou, J H; Gan, O P; Rutkowski, L

2010-10-01

In this paper, the viability of using Fuzzy-Rule-Based Regression Modeling (FRM) algorithm for tool performance and degradation detection is investigated. The FRM is developed based on a multi-layered fuzzy-rule-based hybrid system with Multiple Regression Models (MRM) embedded into a fuzzy logic inference engine that employs Self Organizing Maps (SOM) for clustering. The FRM converts a complex nonlinear problem to a simplified linear format in order to further increase the accuracy in prediction and rate of convergence. The efficacy of the proposed FRM is tested through a case study - namely to predict the remaining useful life of a ball nose milling cutter during a dry machining process of hardened tool steel with a hardness of 52-54 HRc. A comparative study is further made between four predictive models using the same set of experimental data. It is shown that the FRM is superior as compared with conventional MRM, Back Propagation Neural Networks (BPNN) and Radial Basis Function Networks (RBFN) in terms of prediction accuracy and learning speed.

A quasi-Monte-Carlo comparison of parametric and semiparametric regression methods for heavy-tailed and non-normal data: an application to healthcare costs.

PubMed

Jones, Andrew M; Lomas, James; Moore, Peter T; Rice, Nigel

2016-10-01

We conduct a quasi-Monte-Carlo comparison of the recent developments in parametric and semiparametric regression methods for healthcare costs, both against each other and against standard practice. The population of English National Health Service hospital in-patient episodes for the financial year 2007-2008 (summed for each patient) is randomly divided into two equally sized subpopulations to form an estimation set and a validation set. Evaluating out-of-sample using the validation set, a conditional density approximation estimator shows considerable promise in forecasting conditional means, performing best for accuracy of forecasting and among the best four for bias and goodness of fit. The best performing model for bias is linear regression with square-root-transformed dependent variables, whereas a generalized linear model with square-root link function and Poisson distribution performs best in terms of goodness of fit. Commonly used models utilizing a log-link are shown to perform badly relative to other models considered in our comparison.

The quest for conditional independence in prospectivity modeling: weights-of-evidence, boost weights-of-evidence, and logistic regression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schaeben, Helmut; Semmler, Georg

2016-09-01

The objective of prospectivity modeling is prediction of the conditional probability of the presence T = 1 or absence T = 0 of a target T given favorable or prohibitive predictors B, or construction of a two classes 0,1 classification of T. A special case of logistic regression called weights-of-evidence (WofE) is geologists' favorite method of prospectivity modeling due to its apparent simplicity. However, the numerical simplicity is deceiving as it is implied by the severe mathematical modeling assumption of joint conditional independence of all predictors given the target. General weights of evidence are explicitly introduced which are as simple to estimate as conventional weights, i.e., by counting, but do not require conditional independence. Complementary to the regression view is the classification view on prospectivity modeling. Boosting is the construction of a strong classifier from a set of weak classifiers. From the regression point of view it is closely related to logistic regression. Boost weights-of-evidence (BoostWofE) was introduced into prospectivity modeling to counterbalance violations of the assumption of conditional independence even though relaxation of modeling assumptions with respect to weak classifiers was not the (initial) purpose of boosting. In the original publication of BoostWofE a fabricated dataset was used to "validate" this approach. Using the same fabricated dataset it is shown that BoostWofE cannot generally compensate lacking conditional independence whatever the consecutively processing order of predictors. Thus the alleged features of BoostWofE are disproved by way of counterexamples, while theoretical findings are confirmed that logistic regression including interaction terms can exactly compensate violations of joint conditional independence if the predictors are indicators.

Satellite rainfall retrieval by logistic regression

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chiu, Long S.

1986-01-01

The potential use of logistic regression in rainfall estimation from satellite measurements is investigated. Satellite measurements provide covariate information in terms of radiances from different remote sensors.The logistic regression technique can effectively accommodate many covariates and test their significance in the estimation. The outcome from the logistical model is the probability that the rainrate of a satellite pixel is above a certain threshold. By varying the thresholds, a rainrate histogram can be obtained, from which the mean and the variant can be estimated. A logistical model is developed and applied to rainfall data collected during GATE, using as covariates the fractional rain area and a radiance measurement which is deduced from a microwave temperature-rainrate relation. It is demonstrated that the fractional rain area is an important covariate in the model, consistent with the use of the so-called Area Time Integral in estimating total rain volume in other studies. To calibrate the logistical model, simulated rain fields generated by rainfield models with prescribed parameters are needed. A stringent test of the logistical model is its ability to recover the prescribed parameters of simulated rain fields. A rain field simulation model which preserves the fractional rain area and lognormality of rainrates as found in GATE is developed. A stochastic regression model of branching and immigration whose solutions are lognormally distributed in some asymptotic limits has also been developed.

Bivariate least squares linear regression: Towards a unified analytic formalism. I. Functional models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caimmi, R.

2011-08-01

Concerning bivariate least squares linear regression, the classical approach pursued for functional models in earlier attempts ( York, 1966, 1969) is reviewed using a new formalism in terms of deviation (matrix) traces which, for unweighted data, reduce to usual quantities leaving aside an unessential (but dimensional) multiplicative factor. Within the framework of classical error models, the dependent variable relates to the independent variable according to the usual additive model. The classes of linear models considered are regression lines in the general case of correlated errors in X and in Y for weighted data, and in the opposite limiting situations of (i) uncorrelated errors in X and in Y, and (ii) completely correlated errors in X and in Y. The special case of (C) generalized orthogonal regression is considered in detail together with well known subcases, namely: (Y) errors in X negligible (ideally null) with respect to errors in Y; (X) errors in Y negligible (ideally null) with respect to errors in X; (O) genuine orthogonal regression; (R) reduced major-axis regression. In the limit of unweighted data, the results determined for functional models are compared with their counterparts related to extreme structural models i.e. the instrumental scatter is negligible (ideally null) with respect to the intrinsic scatter ( Isobe et al., 1990; Feigelson and Babu, 1992). While regression line slope and intercept estimators for functional and structural models necessarily coincide, the contrary holds for related variance estimators even if the residuals obey a Gaussian distribution, with the exception of Y models. An example of astronomical application is considered, concerning the [O/H]-[Fe/H] empirical relations deduced from five samples related to different stars and/or different methods of oxygen abundance determination. For selected samples and assigned methods, different regression models yield consistent results within the errors (∓ σ) for both heteroscedastic and homoscedastic data. Conversely, samples related to different methods produce discrepant results, due to the presence of (still undetected) systematic errors, which implies no definitive statement can be made at present. A comparison is also made between different expressions of regression line slope and intercept variance estimators, where fractional discrepancies are found to be not exceeding a few percent, which grows up to about 20% in the presence of large dispersion data. An extension of the formalism to structural models is left to a forthcoming paper.

Glucose variability negatively impacts long-term functional outcome in patients with traumatic brain injury.

PubMed

Matsushima, Kazuhide; Peng, Monica; Velasco, Carlos; Schaefer, Eric; Diaz-Arrastia, Ramon; Frankel, Heidi

2012-04-01

Significant glycemic excursions (so-called glucose variability) affect the outcome of generic critically ill patients but has not been well studied in patients with traumatic brain injury (TBI). The purpose of this study was to evaluate the impact of glucose variability on long-term functional outcome of patients with TBI. A noncomputerized tight glucose control protocol was used in our intensivist model surgical intensive care unit. The relationship between the glucose variability and long-term (a median of 6 months after injury) functional outcome defined by extended Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOSE) was analyzed using ordinal logistic regression models. Glucose variability was defined by SD and percentage of excursion (POE) from the preset range glucose level. A total of 109 patients with TBI under tight glucose control had long-term GOSE evaluated. In univariable analysis, there was a significant association between lower GOSE score and higher mean glucose, higher SD, POE more than 60, POE 80 to 150, and single episode of glucose less than 60 mg/dL but not POE 80 to 110. After adjusting for possible confounding variables in multivariable ordinal logistic regression models, higher SD, POE more than 60, POE 80 to 150, and single episode of glucose less than 60 mg/dL were significantly associated with lower GOSE score. Glucose variability was significantly associated with poorer long-term functional outcome in patients with TBI as measured by the GOSE score. Well-designed protocols to minimize glucose variability may be key in improving long-term functional outcome. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Short-Term and High-Resolution System Load Forecasting Approach Using Support Vector Regression with Hybrid Parameters Optimization

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jiang, Huaiguang

This work proposes an approach for distribution system load forecasting, which aims to provide highly accurate short-term load forecasting with high resolution utilizing a support vector regression (SVR) based forecaster and a two-step hybrid parameters optimization method. Specifically, because the load profiles in distribution systems contain abrupt deviations, a data normalization is designed as the pretreatment for the collected historical load data. Then an SVR model is trained by the load data to forecast the future load. For better performance of SVR, a two-step hybrid optimization algorithm is proposed to determine the best parameters. In the first step of themore » hybrid optimization algorithm, a designed grid traverse algorithm (GTA) is used to narrow the parameters searching area from a global to local space. In the second step, based on the result of the GTA, particle swarm optimization (PSO) is used to determine the best parameters in the local parameter space. After the best parameters are determined, the SVR model is used to forecast the short-term load deviation in the distribution system.« less

Imaging-based biomarkers of cognitive performance in older adults constructed via high-dimensional pattern regression applied to MRI and PET.

PubMed

Wang, Ying; Goh, Joshua O; Resnick, Susan M; Davatzikos, Christos

2013-01-01

In this study, we used high-dimensional pattern regression methods based on structural (gray and white matter; GM and WM) and functional (positron emission tomography of regional cerebral blood flow; PET) brain data to identify cross-sectional imaging biomarkers of cognitive performance in cognitively normal older adults from the Baltimore Longitudinal Study of Aging (BLSA). We focused on specific components of executive and memory domains known to decline with aging, including manipulation, semantic retrieval, long-term memory (LTM), and short-term memory (STM). For each imaging modality, brain regions associated with each cognitive domain were generated by adaptive regional clustering. A relevance vector machine was adopted to model the nonlinear continuous relationship between brain regions and cognitive performance, with cross-validation to select the most informative brain regions (using recursive feature elimination) as imaging biomarkers and optimize model parameters. Predicted cognitive scores using our regression algorithm based on the resulting brain regions correlated well with actual performance. Also, regression models obtained using combined GM, WM, and PET imaging modalities outperformed models based on single modalities. Imaging biomarkers related to memory performance included the orbito-frontal and medial temporal cortical regions with LTM showing stronger correlation with the temporal lobe than STM. Brain regions predicting executive performance included orbito-frontal, and occipito-temporal areas. The PET modality had higher contribution to most cognitive domains except manipulation, which had higher WM contribution from the superior longitudinal fasciculus and the genu of the corpus callosum. These findings based on machine-learning methods demonstrate the importance of combining structural and functional imaging data in understanding complex cognitive mechanisms and also their potential usage as biomarkers that predict cognitive status.

Cross Validation of Selection of Variables in Multiple Regression.

DTIC Science & Technology

1979-12-01

55 vii CROSS VALIDATION OF SELECTION OF VARIABLES IN MULTIPLE REGRESSION I Introduction Background Long term DoD planning gcals...028545024 .31109000 BF * SS - .008700618 .0471961 Constant - .70977903 85.146786 55 had adequate predictive capabilities; the other two models (the...71ZCO F111D Control 54 73EGO FlIID Computer, General Purpose 55 73EPO FII1D Converter-Multiplexer 56 73HAO flllD Stabilizer Platform 57 73HCO F1ID

[Associations of the Employment Status during the First 2 Years Following Medical Rehabilitation and Long Term Occupational Trajectories: Implications for Outcome Measurement].

PubMed

Holstiege, J; Kaluscha, R; Jankowiak, S; Krischak, G

2017-02-01

Study Objectives: The aim was to investigate the predictive value of the employment status measured in the 6 th , 12 th , 18 th and 24 th month after medical rehabilitation for long-term employment trajectories during 4 years. Methods: A retrospective study was conducted based on a 20%-sample of all patients receiving inpatient rehabilitation funded by the German pension fund. Patients aged <62 years who were treated due to musculoskeletal, cardiovascular or psychosomatic disorders during the years 2002-2005 were included and followed for 4 consecutive years. The predictive value of the employment status in 4 predefined months after discharge (6 th , 12 th , 18 th and 24 th month), for the total number of months in employment in 4 years following rehabilitative treatment was analyzed using multiple linear regression. Per time point, separate regression analyses were conducted, including the employment status (employed vs. unemployed) at the respective point in time as explanatory variable, besides a standard set of additional prognostic variables. Results: A total of 252 591 patients were eligible for study inclusion. The level of explained variance of the regression models increased with the point in time used to measure the employment status, included as explanatory variable. Overall the R²-measure increased by 30% from the regression model that included the employment status in the 6 th month (R²=0.60) to the model that included the work status in the 24 th month (R²=0.78). Conclusion: The degree of accuracy in the prognosis of long-term employment biographies increases with the point in time used to measure employment in the first 2 years following rehabilitation. These findings should be taken into consideration for the predefinition of time points used to measure the employment status in future studies. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Short- and long-term theory-based predictors of physical activity in women who participated in a weight-management program.

PubMed

Wasserkampf, A; Silva, M N; Santos, I C; Carraça, E V; Meis, J J M; Kremers, S P J; Teixeira, P J

2014-12-01

This study analyzed psychosocial predictors of the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) and Self-Determination Theory (SDT) and evaluated their associations with short- and long-term moderate plus vigorous physical activity (MVPA) and lifestyle physical activity (PA) outcomes in women who underwent a weight-management program. 221 participants (age 37.6 ± 7.02 years) completed a 12-month SDT-based lifestyle intervention and were followed-up for 24 months. Multiple linear regression analyses tested associations between psychosocial variables and self-reported short- and long-term PA outcomes. Regression analyses showed that control constructs of both theories were significant determinants of short- and long-term MVPA, whereas affective and self-determination variables were strong predictors of short- and long-term lifestyle PA. Regarding short-term prediction models, TPB constructs were stronger in predicting MVPA, whereas SDT was more effective in predicting lifestyle PA. For long-term models, both forms of PA were better predicted by SDT in comparison to TPB. These results highlight the importance of comparing health behavior theories to identify the mechanisms involved in the behavior change process. Control and competence constructs are crucial during early adoption of structured PA behaviors, whereas affective and intrinsic sources of motivation are more involved in incidental types of PA, particularly in relation to behavioral maintenance. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Aqua/Aura Updated Inclination Adjust Maneuver Performance Prediction Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boone, Spencer

2017-01-01

This presentation will discuss the updated Inclination Adjust Maneuver (IAM) performance prediction model that was developed for Aqua and Aura following the 2017 IAM series. This updated model uses statistical regression methods to identify potential long-term trends in maneuver parameters, yielding improved predictions when re-planning past maneuvers. The presentation has been reviewed and approved by Eric Moyer, ESMO Deputy Project Manager.

Comparison of four methods for deriving hospital standardised mortality ratios from a single hierarchical logistic regression model.

PubMed

Mohammed, Mohammed A; Manktelow, Bradley N; Hofer, Timothy P

2016-04-01

There is interest in deriving case-mix adjusted standardised mortality ratios so that comparisons between healthcare providers, such as hospitals, can be undertaken in the controversial belief that variability in standardised mortality ratios reflects quality of care. Typically standardised mortality ratios are derived using a fixed effects logistic regression model, without a hospital term in the model. This fails to account for the hierarchical structure of the data - patients nested within hospitals - and so a hierarchical logistic regression model is more appropriate. However, four methods have been advocated for deriving standardised mortality ratios from a hierarchical logistic regression model, but their agreement is not known and neither do we know which is to be preferred. We found significant differences between the four types of standardised mortality ratios because they reflect a range of underlying conceptual issues. The most subtle issue is the distinction between asking how an average patient fares in different hospitals versus how patients at a given hospital fare at an average hospital. Since the answers to these questions are not the same and since the choice between these two approaches is not obvious, the extent to which profiling hospitals on mortality can be undertaken safely and reliably, without resolving these methodological issues, remains questionable. © The Author(s) 2012.

Early post-stroke cognition in stroke rehabilitation patients predicts functional outcome at 13 months.

PubMed

Wagle, Jørgen; Farner, Lasse; Flekkøy, Kjell; Bruun Wyller, Torgeir; Sandvik, Leiv; Fure, Brynjar; Stensrød, Brynhild; Engedal, Knut

2011-01-01

To identify prognostic factors associated with functional outcome at 13 months in a sample of stroke rehabilitation patients. Specifically, we hypothesized that cognitive functioning early after stroke would predict long-term functional outcome independently of other factors. 163 stroke rehabilitation patients underwent a structured neuropsychological examination 2-3 weeks after hospital admittance, and their functional status was subsequently evaluated 13 months later with the modified Rankin Scale (mRS) as outcome measure. Three predictive models were built using linear regression analyses: a biological model (sociodemographics, apolipoprotein E genotype, prestroke vascular factors, lesion characteristics and neurological stroke-related impairment); a functional model (pre- and early post-stroke cognitive functioning, personal and instrumental activities of daily living, ADL, and depressive symptoms), and a combined model (including significant variables, with p value <0.05, from the biological and functional models). A combined model of 4 variables best predicted long-term functional outcome with explained variance of 49%: neurological impairment (National Institute of Health Stroke Scale; β = 0.402, p < 0.001), age (β = 0.233, p = 0.001), post-stroke cognitive functioning (Repeatable Battery of Neuropsychological Status, RBANS; β = -0.248, p = 0.001) and prestroke personal ADL (Barthel Index; β = -0.217, p = 0.002). Further linear regression analyses of which RBANS indexes and subtests best predicted long-term functional outcome showed that Coding (β = -0.484, p < 0.001) and Figure Copy (β = -0.233, p = 0.002) raw scores at baseline explained 42% of the variance in mRS scores at follow-up. Early post-stroke cognitive functioning as measured by the RBANS is a significant and independent predictor of long-term functional post-stroke outcome. Copyright © 2011 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Using the Graded Response Model to Control Spurious Interactions in Moderated Multiple Regression

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Morse, Brendan J.; Johanson, George A.; Griffeth, Rodger W.

2012-01-01

Recent simulation research has demonstrated that using simple raw score to operationalize a latent construct can result in inflated Type I error rates for the interaction term of a moderated statistical model when the interaction (or lack thereof) is proposed at the latent variable level. Rescaling the scores using an appropriate item response…

Text Mining of Journal Articles for Sleep Disorder Terminologies.

PubMed

Lam, Calvin; Lai, Fu-Chih; Wang, Chia-Hui; Lai, Mei-Hsin; Hsu, Nanly; Chung, Min-Huey

2016-01-01

Research on publication trends in journal articles on sleep disorders (SDs) and the associated methodologies by using text mining has been limited. The present study involved text mining for terms to determine the publication trends in sleep-related journal articles published during 2000-2013 and to identify associations between SD and methodology terms as well as conducting statistical analyses of the text mining findings. SD and methodology terms were extracted from 3,720 sleep-related journal articles in the PubMed database by using MetaMap. The extracted data set was analyzed using hierarchical cluster analyses and adjusted logistic regression models to investigate publication trends and associations between SD and methodology terms. MetaMap had a text mining precision, recall, and false positive rate of 0.70, 0.77, and 11.51%, respectively. The most common SD term was breathing-related sleep disorder, whereas narcolepsy was the least common. Cluster analyses showed similar methodology clusters for each SD term, except narcolepsy. The logistic regression models showed an increasing prevalence of insomnia, parasomnia, and other sleep disorders but a decreasing prevalence of breathing-related sleep disorder during 2000-2013. Different SD terms were positively associated with different methodology terms regarding research design terms, measure terms, and analysis terms. Insomnia-, parasomnia-, and other sleep disorder-related articles showed an increasing publication trend, whereas those related to breathing-related sleep disorder showed a decreasing trend. Furthermore, experimental studies more commonly focused on hypersomnia and other SDs and less commonly on insomnia, breathing-related sleep disorder, narcolepsy, and parasomnia. Thus, text mining may facilitate the exploration of the publication trends in SDs and the associated methodologies.

Use of Cox's Cure Model to Establish Clinical Determinants of Long-Term Disease-Free Survival in Neoadjuvant-Chemotherapy-Treated Breast Cancer Patients without Pathologic Complete Response.

PubMed

Asano, Junichi; Hirakawa, Akihiro; Hamada, Chikuma; Yonemori, Kan; Hirata, Taizo; Shimizu, Chikako; Tamura, Kenji; Fujiwara, Yasuhiro

2013-01-01

In prognostic studies for breast cancer patients treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC), the ordinary Cox proportional-hazards (PH) model has been often used to identify prognostic factors for disease-free survival (DFS). This model assumes that all patients eventually experience relapse or death. However, a subset of NAC-treated breast cancer patients never experience these events during long-term follow-up (>10 years) and may be considered clinically "cured." Clinical factors associated with cure have not been studied adequately. Because the ordinary Cox PH model cannot be used to identify such clinical factors, we used the Cox PH cure model, a recently developed statistical method. This model includes both a logistic regression component for the cure rate and a Cox regression component for the hazard for uncured patients. The purpose of this study was to identify the clinical factors associated with cure and the variables associated with the time to recurrence or death in NAC-treated breast cancer patients without a pathologic complete response, by using the Cox PH cure model. We found that hormone receptor status, clinical response, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 status, histological grade, and the number of lymph node metastases were associated with cure.

Predicting spatio-temporal failure in large scale observational and micro scale experimental systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de las Heras, Alejandro; Hu, Yong

2006-10-01

Forecasting has become an essential part of modern thought, but the practical limitations still are manifold. We addressed future rates of change by comparing models that take into account time, and models that focus more on space. Cox regression confirmed that linear change can be safely assumed in the short-term. Spatially explicit Poisson regression, provided a ceiling value for the number of deforestation spots. With several observed and estimated rates, it was decided to forecast using the more robust assumptions. A Markov-chain cellular automaton thus projected 5-year deforestation in the Amazonian Arc of Deforestation, showing that even a stable rate of change would largely deplete the forest area. More generally, resolution and implementation of the existing models could explain many of the modelling difficulties still affecting forecasting.

WebGLORE: a web service for Grid LOgistic REgression.

PubMed

Jiang, Wenchao; Li, Pinghao; Wang, Shuang; Wu, Yuan; Xue, Meng; Ohno-Machado, Lucila; Jiang, Xiaoqian

2013-12-15

WebGLORE is a free web service that enables privacy-preserving construction of a global logistic regression model from distributed datasets that are sensitive. It only transfers aggregated local statistics (from participants) through Hypertext Transfer Protocol Secure to a trusted server, where the global model is synthesized. WebGLORE seamlessly integrates AJAX, JAVA Applet/Servlet and PHP technologies to provide an easy-to-use web service for biomedical researchers to break down policy barriers during information exchange. http://dbmi-engine.ucsd.edu/webglore3/. WebGLORE can be used under the terms of GNU general public license as published by the Free Software Foundation.

Detecting nonsense for Chinese comments based on logistic regression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhuolin, Ren; Guang, Chen; Shu, Chen

2016-07-01

To understand cyber citizens' opinion accurately from Chinese news comments, the clear definition on nonsense is present, and a detection model based on logistic regression (LR) is proposed. The detection of nonsense can be treated as a binary-classification problem. Besides of traditional lexical features, we propose three kinds of features in terms of emotion, structure and relevance. By these features, we train an LR model and demonstrate its effect in understanding Chinese news comments. We find that each of proposed features can significantly promote the result. In our experiments, we achieve a prediction accuracy of 84.3% which improves the baseline 77.3% by 7%.

Development of land-use regression models for exposure assessment to ultrafine particles in Rome, Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cattani, Giorgio; Gaeta, Alessandra; di Menno di Bucchianico, Alessandro; de Santis, Antonella; Gaddi, Raffaela; Cusano, Mariacarmela; Ancona, Carla; Badaloni, Chiara; Forastiere, Francesco; Gariazzo, Claudio; Sozzi, Roberto; Inglessis, Marco; Silibello, Camillo; Salvatori, Elisabetta; Manes, Fausto; Cesaroni, Giulia; The Viias Study Group

2017-05-01

The health effects of long-term exposure to ultrafine particles (UFPs) are poorly understood. Data on spatial contrasts in ambient ultrafine particles (UFPs) concentrations are needed with fine resolution. This study aimed to assess the spatial variability of total particle number concentrations (PNC, a proxy for UFPs) in the city of Rome, Italy, using land use regression (LUR) models, and the correspondent exposure of population here living. PNC were measured using condensation particle counters at the building facade of 28 homes throughout the city. Three 7-day monitoring periods were carried out during cold, warm and intermediate seasons. Geographic Information System predictor variables, with buffers of varying size, were evaluated to model spatial variations of PNC. A stepwise forward selection procedure was used to develop a "base" linear regression model according to the European Study of Cohorts for Air Pollution Effects project methodology. Other variables were then included in more enhanced models and their capability of improving model performance was evaluated. Four LUR models were developed. Local variation in UFPs in the study area can be largely explained by the ratio of traffic intensity and distance to the nearest major road. The best model (adjusted R2 = 0.71; root mean square error = ±1,572 particles/cm³, leave one out cross validated R2 = 0.68) was achieved by regressing building and street configuration variables against residual from the "base" model, which added 3% more to the total variance explained. Urban green and population density in a 5,000 m buffer around each home were also relevant predictors. The spatial contrast in ambient PNC across the large conurbation of Rome, was successfully assessed. The average exposure of subjects living in the study area was 16,006 particles/cm³ (SD 2165 particles/cm³, range: 11,075-28,632 particles/cm³). A total of 203,886 subjects (16%) lives in Rome within 50 m from a high traffic road and they experience the highest exposure levels (18,229 particles/cm³). The results will be used to estimate the long-term health effects of ultrafine particle exposure of participants in Rome.

Analytic model for the long-term evolution of circular Earth satellite orbits including lunar node regression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Ting-Lei; Zhao, Chang-Yin; Zhang, Ming-Jiang

2017-04-01

This paper aims to obtain an analytic approximation to the evolution of circular orbits governed by the Earth's J2 and the luni-solar gravitational perturbations. Assuming that the lunar orbital plane coincides with the ecliptic plane, Allan and Cook (Proc. R. Soc. A, Math. Phys. Eng. Sci. 280(1380):97, 1964) derived an analytic solution to the orbital plane evolution of circular orbits. Using their result as an intermediate solution, we establish an approximate analytic model with lunar orbital inclination and its node regression be taken into account. Finally, an approximate analytic expression is derived, which is accurate compared to the numerical results except for the resonant cases when the period of the reference orbit approximately equals the integer multiples (especially 1 or 2 times) of lunar node regression period.

Performance of the modified Poisson regression approach for estimating relative risks from clustered prospective data.

PubMed

Yelland, Lisa N; Salter, Amy B; Ryan, Philip

2011-10-15

Modified Poisson regression, which combines a log Poisson regression model with robust variance estimation, is a useful alternative to log binomial regression for estimating relative risks. Previous studies have shown both analytically and by simulation that modified Poisson regression is appropriate for independent prospective data. This method is often applied to clustered prospective data, despite a lack of evidence to support its use in this setting. The purpose of this article is to evaluate the performance of the modified Poisson regression approach for estimating relative risks from clustered prospective data, by using generalized estimating equations to account for clustering. A simulation study is conducted to compare log binomial regression and modified Poisson regression for analyzing clustered data from intervention and observational studies. Both methods generally perform well in terms of bias, type I error, and coverage. Unlike log binomial regression, modified Poisson regression is not prone to convergence problems. The methods are contrasted by using example data sets from 2 large studies. The results presented in this article support the use of modified Poisson regression as an alternative to log binomial regression for analyzing clustered prospective data when clustering is taken into account by using generalized estimating equations.

QSAR, docking and ADMET studies of artemisinin derivatives for antimalarial activity targeting plasmepsin II, a hemoglobin-degrading enzyme from P. falciparum.

PubMed

Qidwai, Tabish; Yadav, Dharmendra K; Khan, Feroz; Dhawan, Sangeeta; Bhakuni, R S

2012-01-01

This work presents the development of quantitative structure activity relationship (QSAR) model to predict the antimalarial activity of artemisinin derivatives. The structures of the molecules are represented by chemical descriptors that encode topological, geometric, and electronic structure features. Screening through QSAR model suggested that compounds A24, A24a, A53, A54, A62 and A64 possess significant antimalarial activity. Linear model is developed by the multiple linear regression method to link structures to their reported antimalarial activity. The correlation in terms of regression coefficient (r(2)) was 0.90 and prediction accuracy of model in terms of cross validation regression coefficient (rCV(2)) was 0.82. This study indicates that chemical properties viz., atom count (all atoms), connectivity index (order 1, standard), ring count (all rings), shape index (basic kappa, order 2), and solvent accessibility surface area are well correlated with antimalarial activity. The docking study showed high binding affinity of predicted active compounds against antimalarial target Plasmepsins (Plm-II). Further studies for oral bioavailability, ADMET and toxicity risk assessment suggest that compound A24, A24a, A53, A54, A62 and A64 exhibits marked antimalarial activity comparable to standard antimalarial drugs. Later one of the predicted active compound A64 was chemically synthesized, structure elucidated by NMR and in vivo tested in multidrug resistant strain of Plasmodium yoelii nigeriensis infected mice. The experimental results obtained agreed well with the predicted values.

Long-Term Post-CABG Survival: Performance of Clinical Risk Models Versus Actuarial Predictions.

PubMed

Carr, Brendan M; Romeiser, Jamie; Ruan, Joyce; Gupta, Sandeep; Seifert, Frank C; Zhu, Wei; Shroyer, A Laurie

2016-01-01

Clinical risk models are commonly used to predict short-term coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) mortality but are less commonly used to predict long-term mortality. The added value of long-term mortality clinical risk models over traditional actuarial models has not been evaluated. To address this, the predictive performance of a long-term clinical risk model was compared with that of an actuarial model to identify the clinical variable(s) most responsible for any differences observed. Long-term mortality for 1028 CABG patients was estimated using the Hannan New York State clinical risk model and an actuarial model (based on age, gender, and race/ethnicity). Vital status was assessed using the Social Security Death Index. Observed/expected (O/E) ratios were calculated, and the models' predictive performances were compared using a nested c-index approach. Linear regression analyses identified the subgroup of risk factors driving the differences observed. Mortality rates were 3%, 9%, and 17% at one-, three-, and five years, respectively (median follow-up: five years). The clinical risk model provided more accurate predictions. Greater divergence between model estimates occurred with increasing long-term mortality risk, with baseline renal dysfunction identified as a particularly important driver of these differences. Long-term mortality clinical risk models provide enhanced predictive power compared to actuarial models. Using the Hannan risk model, a patient's long-term mortality risk can be accurately assessed and subgroups of higher-risk patients can be identified for enhanced follow-up care. More research appears warranted to refine long-term CABG clinical risk models. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Cardiac Surgery Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Long‐Term Post‐CABG Survival: Performance of Clinical Risk Models Versus Actuarial Predictions

PubMed Central

Carr, Brendan M.; Romeiser, Jamie; Ruan, Joyce; Gupta, Sandeep; Seifert, Frank C.; Zhu, Wei

2015-01-01

Abstract Background/aim Clinical risk models are commonly used to predict short‐term coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) mortality but are less commonly used to predict long‐term mortality. The added value of long‐term mortality clinical risk models over traditional actuarial models has not been evaluated. To address this, the predictive performance of a long‐term clinical risk model was compared with that of an actuarial model to identify the clinical variable(s) most responsible for any differences observed. Methods Long‐term mortality for 1028 CABG patients was estimated using the Hannan New York State clinical risk model and an actuarial model (based on age, gender, and race/ethnicity). Vital status was assessed using the Social Security Death Index. Observed/expected (O/E) ratios were calculated, and the models' predictive performances were compared using a nested c‐index approach. Linear regression analyses identified the subgroup of risk factors driving the differences observed. Results Mortality rates were 3%, 9%, and 17% at one‐, three‐, and five years, respectively (median follow‐up: five years). The clinical risk model provided more accurate predictions. Greater divergence between model estimates occurred with increasing long‐term mortality risk, with baseline renal dysfunction identified as a particularly important driver of these differences. Conclusions Long‐term mortality clinical risk models provide enhanced predictive power compared to actuarial models. Using the Hannan risk model, a patient's long‐term mortality risk can be accurately assessed and subgroups of higher‐risk patients can be identified for enhanced follow‐up care. More research appears warranted to refine long‐term CABG clinical risk models. doi: 10.1111/jocs.12665 (J Card Surg 2016;31:23–30) PMID:26543019

Very-short-term wind power prediction by a hybrid model with single- and multi-step approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohammed, E.; Wang, S.; Yu, J.

2017-05-01

Very-short-term wind power prediction (VSTWPP) has played an essential role for the operation of electric power systems. This paper aims at improving and applying a hybrid method of VSTWPP based on historical data. The hybrid method is combined by multiple linear regressions and least square (MLR&LS), which is intended for reducing prediction errors. The predicted values are obtained through two sub-processes:1) transform the time-series data of actual wind power into the power ratio, and then predict the power ratio;2) use the predicted power ratio to predict the wind power. Besides, the proposed method can include two prediction approaches: single-step prediction (SSP) and multi-step prediction (MSP). WPP is tested comparatively by auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) model from the predicted values and errors. The validity of the proposed hybrid method is confirmed in terms of error analysis by using probability density function (PDF), mean absolute percent error (MAPE) and means square error (MSE). Meanwhile, comparison of the correlation coefficients between the actual values and the predicted values for different prediction times and window has confirmed that MSP approach by using the hybrid model is the most accurate while comparing to SSP approach and ARMA. The MLR&LS is accurate and promising for solving problems in WPP.

Improved statistical power with a sparse shape model in detecting an aging effect in the hippocampus and amygdala

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chung, Moo K.; Kim, Seung-Goo; Schaefer, Stacey M.; van Reekum, Carien M.; Peschke-Schmitz, Lara; Sutterer, Matthew J.; Davidson, Richard J.

2014-03-01

The sparse regression framework has been widely used in medical image processing and analysis. However, it has been rarely used in anatomical studies. We present a sparse shape modeling framework using the Laplace- Beltrami (LB) eigenfunctions of the underlying shape and show its improvement of statistical power. Tradition- ally, the LB-eigenfunctions are used as a basis for intrinsically representing surface shapes as a form of Fourier descriptors. To reduce high frequency noise, only the first few terms are used in the expansion and higher frequency terms are simply thrown away. However, some lower frequency terms may not necessarily contribute significantly in reconstructing the surfaces. Motivated by this idea, we present a LB-based method to filter out only the significant eigenfunctions by imposing a sparse penalty. For dense anatomical data such as deformation fields on a surface mesh, the sparse regression behaves like a smoothing process, which will reduce the error of incorrectly detecting false negatives. Hence the statistical power improves. The sparse shape model is then applied in investigating the influence of age on amygdala and hippocampus shapes in the normal population. The advantage of the LB sparse framework is demonstrated by showing the increased statistical power.

Local Fiscal Allocation for Public Health Departments.

PubMed

McCullough, J Mac; Leider, Jonathon P; Riley, William J

2015-12-01

We examined the percentage of local government taxes ("fiscal allocation") dedicated to local health departments on a national level, as well as correlates of local investment in public health. Using the most recent data available--the 2008 National Association of City and County Health Officials Profile survey and the 2007 U.S. Census Bureau Census of Local Governments-generalized linear regression models examined associations between fiscal allocation and local health department setting, governance, finance, and service provision. Models were stratified by the extent of long-term debt for the jurisdiction. Analyses were performed in 2014. Average fiscal allocation for public health was 3.31% of total local taxes. In multivariate regressions, per capita expenditures, having a local board of health and public health service provision were associated with higher fiscal allocation. Stratified models showed that local board of health and local health department taxing authority were associated with fiscal allocation in low and high long-term debt areas, respectively. The proportion of all local taxes allocated to local public health is related to local health department expenditures, service provision, and governance. These relationships depend upon the extent of long-term debt in the jurisdiction. Copyright © 2015 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Psychosocial work environment and mental health-related long-term sickness absence among nurses.

PubMed

Roelen, Corné A M; van Hoffen, Marieke F A; Waage, Siri; Schaufeli, Wilmar B; Twisk, Jos W R; Bjorvatn, Bjørn; Moen, Bente E; Pallesen, Ståle

2018-02-01

We investigated which job demands and job resources were predictive of mental health-related long-term sickness absence (LTSA) in nurses. The data of 2059 nurses were obtained from the Norwegian survey of Shift work, Sleep and Health. Job demands (psychological demands, role conflict, and harassment at the workplace) and job resources (social support at work, role clarity, and fair leadership) were measured at baseline and linked to mental health-related LTSA during 2-year follow-up. Cox regression models estimated hazard ratios (HR) and related 95% confidence intervals (CI). The c-statistic was used to investigate the discriminative ability of the Cox regression models. A total of 1533 (75%) nurses were included in the analyses; 103 (7%) of them had mental health-related LTSA during 2-year follow-up. Harassment (HR = 1.07; 95% CI 1.01-1.17) and social support (HR = 0.92; 95% CI 0.87-0.98) were associated with mental health-related LTSA. However, the Cox regression model did not discriminate between nurses with and without mental health-related LTSA (c = 0.59; 95% CI 0.53-0.65). Harassment was positively and social support at the workplace was negatively related to mental health-related LTSA, but both failed to discriminate between nurses with and without mental health-related LTSA during 2-year follow-up.

Developing a dengue forecast model using machine learning: A case study in China

PubMed Central

Zhang, Qin; Wang, Li; Xiao, Jianpeng; Zhang, Qingying; Luo, Ganfeng; Li, Zhihao; He, Jianfeng; Zhang, Yonghui; Ma, Wenjun

2017-01-01

Background In China, dengue remains an important public health issue with expanded areas and increased incidence recently. Accurate and timely forecasts of dengue incidence in China are still lacking. We aimed to use the state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms to develop an accurate predictive model of dengue. Methodology/Principal findings Weekly dengue cases, Baidu search queries and climate factors (mean temperature, relative humidity and rainfall) during 2011–2014 in Guangdong were gathered. A dengue search index was constructed for developing the predictive models in combination with climate factors. The observed year and week were also included in the models to control for the long-term trend and seasonality. Several machine learning algorithms, including the support vector regression (SVR) algorithm, step-down linear regression model, gradient boosted regression tree algorithm (GBM), negative binomial regression model (NBM), least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) linear regression model and generalized additive model (GAM), were used as candidate models to predict dengue incidence. Performance and goodness of fit of the models were assessed using the root-mean-square error (RMSE) and R-squared measures. The residuals of the models were examined using the autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation function analyses to check the validity of the models. The models were further validated using dengue surveillance data from five other provinces. The epidemics during the last 12 weeks and the peak of the 2014 large outbreak were accurately forecasted by the SVR model selected by a cross-validation technique. Moreover, the SVR model had the consistently smallest prediction error rates for tracking the dynamics of dengue and forecasting the outbreaks in other areas in China. Conclusion and significance The proposed SVR model achieved a superior performance in comparison with other forecasting techniques assessed in this study. The findings can help the government and community respond early to dengue epidemics. PMID:29036169

Modeling long-term human activeness using recurrent neural networks for biometric data.

PubMed

Kim, Zae Myung; Oh, Hyungrai; Kim, Han-Gyu; Lim, Chae-Gyun; Oh, Kyo-Joong; Choi, Ho-Jin

2017-05-18

With the invention of fitness trackers, it has been possible to continuously monitor a user's biometric data such as heart rates, number of footsteps taken, and amount of calories burned. This paper names the time series of these three types of biometric data, the user's "activeness", and investigates the feasibility in modeling and predicting the long-term activeness of the user. The dataset used in this study consisted of several months of biometric time-series data gathered by seven users independently. Four recurrent neural network (RNN) architectures-as well as a deep neural network and a simple regression model-were proposed to investigate the performance on predicting the activeness of the user under various length-related hyper-parameter settings. In addition, the learned model was tested to predict the time period when the user's activeness falls below a certain threshold. A preliminary experimental result shows that each type of activeness data exhibited a short-term autocorrelation; and among the three types of data, the consumed calories and the number of footsteps were positively correlated, while the heart rate data showed almost no correlation with neither of them. It is probably due to this characteristic of the dataset that although the RNN models produced the best results on modeling the user's activeness, the difference was marginal; and other baseline models, especially the linear regression model, performed quite admirably as well. Further experimental results show that it is feasible to predict a user's future activeness with precision, for example, a trained RNN model could predict-with the precision of 84%-when the user would be less active within the next hour given the latest 15 min of his activeness data. This paper defines and investigates the notion of a user's "activeness", and shows that forecasting the long-term activeness of the user is indeed possible. Such information can be utilized by a health-related application to proactively recommend suitable events or services to the user.

A robust nonparametric framework for reconstruction of stochastic differential equation models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rajabzadeh, Yalda; Rezaie, Amir Hossein; Amindavar, Hamidreza

2016-05-01

In this paper, we employ a nonparametric framework to robustly estimate the functional forms of drift and diffusion terms from discrete stationary time series. The proposed method significantly improves the accuracy of the parameter estimation. In this framework, drift and diffusion coefficients are modeled through orthogonal Legendre polynomials. We employ the least squares regression approach along with the Euler-Maruyama approximation method to learn coefficients of stochastic model. Next, a numerical discrete construction of mean squared prediction error (MSPE) is established to calculate the order of Legendre polynomials in drift and diffusion terms. We show numerically that the new method is robust against the variation in sample size and sampling rate. The performance of our method in comparison with the kernel-based regression (KBR) method is demonstrated through simulation and real data. In case of real dataset, we test our method for discriminating healthy electroencephalogram (EEG) signals from epilepsy ones. We also demonstrate the efficiency of the method through prediction in the financial data. In both simulation and real data, our algorithm outperforms the KBR method.

A generalized multivariate regression model for modelling ocean wave heights

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, X. L.; Feng, Y.; Swail, V. R.

2012-04-01

In this study, a generalized multivariate linear regression model is developed to represent the relationship between 6-hourly ocean significant wave heights (Hs) and the corresponding 6-hourly mean sea level pressure (MSLP) fields. The model is calibrated using the ERA-Interim reanalysis of Hs and MSLP fields for 1981-2000, and is validated using the ERA-Interim reanalysis for 2001-2010 and ERA40 reanalysis of Hs and MSLP for 1958-2001. The performance of the fitted model is evaluated in terms of Pierce skill score, frequency bias index, and correlation skill score. Being not normally distributed, wave heights are subjected to a data adaptive Box-Cox transformation before being used in the model fitting. Also, since 6-hourly data are being modelled, lag-1 autocorrelation must be and is accounted for. The models with and without Box-Cox transformation, and with and without accounting for autocorrelation, are inter-compared in terms of their prediction skills. The fitted MSLP-Hs relationship is then used to reconstruct historical wave height climate from the 6-hourly MSLP fields taken from the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR, Compo et al. 2011), and to project possible future wave height climates using CMIP5 model simulations of MSLP fields. The reconstructed and projected wave heights, both seasonal means and maxima, are subject to a trend analysis that allows for non-linear (polynomial) trends.

Improving Global Models of Remotely Sensed Ocean Chlorophyll Content Using Partial Least Squares and Geographically Weighted Regression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gholizadeh, H.; Robeson, S. M.

2015-12-01

Empirical models have been widely used to estimate global chlorophyll content from remotely sensed data. Here, we focus on the standard NASA empirical models that use blue-green band ratios. These band ratio ocean color (OC) algorithms are in the form of fourth-order polynomials and the parameters of these polynomials (i.e. coefficients) are estimated from the NASA bio-Optical Marine Algorithm Data set (NOMAD). Most of the points in this data set have been sampled from tropical and temperate regions. However, polynomial coefficients obtained from this data set are used to estimate chlorophyll content in all ocean regions with different properties such as sea-surface temperature, salinity, and downwelling/upwelling patterns. Further, the polynomial terms in these models are highly correlated. In sum, the limitations of these empirical models are as follows: 1) the independent variables within the empirical models, in their current form, are correlated (multicollinear), and 2) current algorithms are global approaches and are based on the spatial stationarity assumption, so they are independent of location. Multicollinearity problem is resolved by using partial least squares (PLS). PLS, which transforms the data into a set of independent components, can be considered as a combined form of principal component regression (PCR) and multiple regression. Geographically weighted regression (GWR) is also used to investigate the validity of spatial stationarity assumption. GWR solves a regression model over each sample point by using the observations within its neighbourhood. PLS results show that the empirical method underestimates chlorophyll content in high latitudes, including the Southern Ocean region, when compared to PLS (see Figure 1). Cluster analysis of GWR coefficients also shows that the spatial stationarity assumption in empirical models is not likely a valid assumption.

Long-term air pollution and traffic noise exposures and cognitive function:A cross-sectional analysis of the Heinz Nixdorf Recall study.

PubMed

Tzivian, Lilian; Dlugaj, Martha; Winkler, Angela; Hennig, Frauke; Fuks, Kateryna; Sugiri, Dorothee; Schikowski, Tamara; Jakobs, Hermann; Erbel, Raimund; Jöckel, Karl-Heinz; Moebus, Susanne; Hoffmann, Barbara; Weimar, Christian

2016-01-01

Investigations of adverse effects of air pollution (AP) and ambient noise on cognitive functions are apparently scarce, and findings seem to be inconsistent. The aim of this study was to examine the associations of long-term exposure to AP and traffic noise with cognitive performance. At the second examination of the population-based Heinz Nixdorf Recall study (2006-2008), cognitive performance was evaluated in 4086 participants. Long-term residential exposure to size-specific particulate matter (PM) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) with land use regression, to and traffic noise (weighted 24-h (L DEN ) and nighttime (L NIGHT ) means), was assessed according to the European Union (EU) Directive 2002/49/EC. Multiple regression models were calculated for the relationship of environmental exposures with a global cognitive score (GCS) and in five cognitive subtests, using single- and two-exposure models. In fully adjusted models, several AP metrics were negatively associated with four of five subtests and with GCS. For example, an interquartile range increase in PM 2.5 was correlated with verbal fluency, labyrinth test, and immediate and delayed verbal recall. A 10 dB(A) elevation in L DEN and L NIGHT was associated with GCS. Similar but not significant associations were found for the cognitive subtests. In two-exposure models including noise and air pollution simultaneously, the associations did not change markedly for air pollution, but attenuated numerically for noise. Long-term exposures to AP and traffic noise are negatively correlated with subtests related to memory and executive functions. There appears to be little evidence for mutual confounding.

Clinicopathologic characteristics associated with long-term survival in advanced epithelial ovarian cancer: an NRG Oncology/Gynecologic Oncology Group ancillary data study.

PubMed

Hamilton, C A; Miller, A; Casablanca, Y; Horowitz, N S; Rungruang, B; Krivak, T C; Richard, S D; Rodriguez, N; Birrer, M J; Backes, F J; Geller, M A; Quinn, M; Goodheart, M J; Mutch, D G; Kavanagh, J J; Maxwell, G L; Bookman, M A

2018-02-01

To identify clinicopathologic factors associated with 10-year overall survival in epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) and primary peritoneal cancer (PPC), and to develop a predictive model identifying long-term survivors. Demographic, surgical, and clinicopathologic data were abstracted from GOG 182 records. The association between clinical variables and long-term survival (LTS) (>10years) was assessed using multivariable regression analysis. Bootstrap methods were used to develop predictive models from known prognostic clinical factors and predictive accuracy was quantified using optimism-adjusted area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). The analysis dataset included 3010 evaluable patients, of whom 195 survived greater than ten years. These patients were more likely to have better performance status, endometrioid histology, stage III (rather than stage IV) disease, absence of ascites, less extensive preoperative disease distribution, microscopic disease residual following cyoreduction (R0), and decreased complexity of surgery (p<0.01). Multivariable regression analysis revealed that lower CA-125 levels, absence of ascites, stage, and R0 were significant independent predictors of LTS. A predictive model created using these variables had an AUC=0.729, which outperformed any of the individual predictors. The absence of ascites, a low CA-125, stage, and R0 at the time of cytoreduction are factors associated with LTS when controlling for other confounders. An extensively annotated clinicopathologic prediction model for LTS fell short of clinical utility suggesting that prognostic molecular profiles are needed to better predict which patients are likely to be long-term survivors. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Clinicopathologic characteristics associated with long-term survival in advanced epithelial ovarian cancer: an NRG Oncology/Gynecologic Oncology Group ancillary data study

PubMed Central

Hamilton, C. A.; Miller, A.; Casablanca, Y.; Horowitz, N. S.; Rungruang, B.; Krivak, T. C.; Richard, S. D.; Rodriguez, N.; Birrer, M.J.; Backes, F.J.; Geller, M.A.; Quinn, M.; Goodheart, M.J.; Mutch, D.G.; Kavanagh, J.J.; Maxwell, G. L.; Bookman, M. A.

2018-01-01

Objective To identify clinicopathologic factors associated with 10-year overall survival in epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) and primary peritoneal cancer (PPC), and to develop a predictive model identifying long-term survivors. Methods Demographic, surgical, and clinicopathologic data were abstracted from GOG 182 records. The association between clinical variables and long-term survival (LTS) (>10 years) was assessed using multivariable regression analysis. Bootstrap methods were used to develop predictive models from known prognostic clinical factors and predictive accuracy was quantified using optimism-adjusted area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Results The analysis dataset included 3,010 evaluable patients, of whom 195 survived greater than ten years. These patients were more likely to have better performance status, endometrioid histology, stage III (rather than stage IV) disease, absence of ascites, less extensive preoperative disease distribution, microscopic disease residual following cyoreduction (R0), and decreased complexity of surgery (p<0.01). Multivariable regression analysis revealed that lower CA-125 levels, absence of ascites, stage, and R0 were significant independent predictors of LTS. A predictive model created using these variables had an AUC=0.729, which outperformed any of the individual predictors. Conclusions The absence of ascites, a low CA-125, stage, and R0 at the time of cytoreduction are factors associated with LTS when controlling for other confounders. An extensively annotated clinicopathologic prediction model for LTS fell short of clinical utility suggesting that prognostic molecular profiles are needed to better predict which patients are likely to be long-term survivors. PMID:29195926

On state-of-charge determination for lithium-ion batteries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Zhe; Huang, Jun; Liaw, Bor Yann; Zhang, Jianbo

2017-04-01

Accurate estimation of state-of-charge (SOC) of a battery through its life remains challenging in battery research. Although improved precisions continue to be reported at times, almost all are based on regression methods empirically, while the accuracy is often not properly addressed. Here, a comprehensive review is set to address such issues, from fundamental principles that are supposed to define SOC to methodologies to estimate SOC for practical use. It covers topics from calibration, regression (including modeling methods) to validation in terms of precision and accuracy. At the end, we intend to answer the following questions: 1) can SOC estimation be self-adaptive without bias? 2) Why Ah-counting is a necessity in almost all battery-model-assisted regression methods? 3) How to establish a consistent framework of coupling in multi-physics battery models? 4) To assess the accuracy in SOC estimation, statistical methods should be employed to analyze factors that contribute to the uncertainty. We hope, through this proper discussion of the principles, accurate SOC estimation can be widely achieved.

[Research of prevalence of schistosomiasis in Hunan province, 1984-2015].

PubMed

Li, F Y; Tan, H Z; Ren, G H; Jiang, Q; Wang, H L

2017-03-10

Objective: To analyze the prevalence of schistosomiasis in Hunan province, and provide scientific evidence for the control and elimination of schistosomiasis. Methods: The changes of infection rates of Schistosoma ( S .) japonicum among residents and cattle in Hunan from 1984 to 2015 were analyzed by using dynamic trend diagram; and the time regression model was used to fit the infection rates of S. japonicum , and predict the recent infection rate. Results: The overall infection rates of S. japonicum in Hunan from 1984 to 2015 showed downward trend (95.29% in residents and 95.16% in cattle). By using the linear regression model, the actual values of infection rates in residents and cattle were all in the 95% confidence intervals of the value predicted; and the prediction showed that the infection rates in the residents and cattle would continue to decrease from 2016 to 2020. Conclusion: The prevalence of schistosomiasis was in decline in Hunan. The regression model has a good effect in the short-term prediction of schistosomiasis prevalence.

pulver: an R package for parallel ultra-rapid p-value computation for linear regression interaction terms.

PubMed

Molnos, Sophie; Baumbach, Clemens; Wahl, Simone; Müller-Nurasyid, Martina; Strauch, Konstantin; Wang-Sattler, Rui; Waldenberger, Melanie; Meitinger, Thomas; Adamski, Jerzy; Kastenmüller, Gabi; Suhre, Karsten; Peters, Annette; Grallert, Harald; Theis, Fabian J; Gieger, Christian

2017-09-29

Genome-wide association studies allow us to understand the genetics of complex diseases. Human metabolism provides information about the disease-causing mechanisms, so it is usual to investigate the associations between genetic variants and metabolite levels. However, only considering genetic variants and their effects on one trait ignores the possible interplay between different "omics" layers. Existing tools only consider single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP)-SNP interactions, and no practical tool is available for large-scale investigations of the interactions between pairs of arbitrary quantitative variables. We developed an R package called pulver to compute p-values for the interaction term in a very large number of linear regression models. Comparisons based on simulated data showed that pulver is much faster than the existing tools. This is achieved by using the correlation coefficient to test the null-hypothesis, which avoids the costly computation of inversions. Additional tricks are a rearrangement of the order, when iterating through the different "omics" layers, and implementing this algorithm in the fast programming language C++. Furthermore, we applied our algorithm to data from the German KORA study to investigate a real-world problem involving the interplay among DNA methylation, genetic variants, and metabolite levels. The pulver package is a convenient and rapid tool for screening huge numbers of linear regression models for significant interaction terms in arbitrary pairs of quantitative variables. pulver is written in R and C++, and can be downloaded freely from CRAN at https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/pulver/ .

Linear and evolutionary polynomial regression models to forecast coastal dynamics: Comparison and reliability assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bruno, Delia Evelina; Barca, Emanuele; Goncalves, Rodrigo Mikosz; de Araujo Queiroz, Heithor Alexandre; Berardi, Luigi; Passarella, Giuseppe

2018-01-01

In this paper, the Evolutionary Polynomial Regression data modelling strategy has been applied to study small scale, short-term coastal morphodynamics, given its capability for treating a wide database of known information, non-linearly. Simple linear and multilinear regression models were also applied to achieve a balance between the computational load and reliability of estimations of the three models. In fact, even though it is easy to imagine that the more complex the model, the more the prediction improves, sometimes a "slight" worsening of estimations can be accepted in exchange for the time saved in data organization and computational load. The models' outcomes were validated through a detailed statistical, error analysis, which revealed a slightly better estimation of the polynomial model with respect to the multilinear model, as expected. On the other hand, even though the data organization was identical for the two models, the multilinear one required a simpler simulation setting and a faster run time. Finally, the most reliable evolutionary polynomial regression model was used in order to make some conjecture about the uncertainty increase with the extension of extrapolation time of the estimation. The overlapping rate between the confidence band of the mean of the known coast position and the prediction band of the estimated position can be a good index of the weakness in producing reliable estimations when the extrapolation time increases too much. The proposed models and tests have been applied to a coastal sector located nearby Torre Colimena in the Apulia region, south Italy.

Simple, Efficient Estimators of Treatment Effects in Randomized Trials Using Generalized Linear Models to Leverage Baseline Variables

PubMed Central

Rosenblum, Michael; van der Laan, Mark J.

2010-01-01

Models, such as logistic regression and Poisson regression models, are often used to estimate treatment effects in randomized trials. These models leverage information in variables collected before randomization, in order to obtain more precise estimates of treatment effects. However, there is the danger that model misspecification will lead to bias. We show that certain easy to compute, model-based estimators are asymptotically unbiased even when the working model used is arbitrarily misspecified. Furthermore, these estimators are locally efficient. As a special case of our main result, we consider a simple Poisson working model containing only main terms; in this case, we prove the maximum likelihood estimate of the coefficient corresponding to the treatment variable is an asymptotically unbiased estimator of the marginal log rate ratio, even when the working model is arbitrarily misspecified. This is the log-linear analog of ANCOVA for linear models. Our results demonstrate one application of targeted maximum likelihood estimation. PMID:20628636

Mapping Regional Impervious Surface Distribution from Night Time Light: The Variability across Global Cities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, M.; Yang, Z.; Park, H.; Qian, S.; Chen, J.; Fan, P.

2017-12-01

Impervious surface area (ISA) has become an important indicator for studying urban environments, but mapping ISA at the regional or global scale is still challenging due to the complexity of impervious surface features. The Defense Meteorological Satellite Program's Operational Linescan System (DMSP-OLS) nighttime light data is (NTL) and Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) are the major remote sensing data source for regional ISA mapping. A single regression relationship between fractional ISA and NTL or various index derived based on NTL and MODIS vegetation index (NDVI) data was established in many previous studies for regional ISA mapping. However, due to the varying geographical, climatic, and socio-economic characteristics of different cities, the same regression relationship may vary significantly across different cities in the same region in terms of both fitting performance (i.e. R2) and the rate of change (Slope). In this study, we examined the regression relationship between fractional ISA and Vegetation Adjusted Nighttime light Urban Index (VANUI) for 120 randomly selected cities around the world with a multilevel regression model. We found that indeed there is substantial variability of both the R2 (0.68±0.29) and slopes (0.64±0.40) among individual regressions, which suggests that multilevel/hierarchical models are needed for accuracy improvement of future regional ISA mapping .Further analysis also let us find the this substantial variability are affected by climate conditions, socio-economic status, and urban spatial structures. However, all these effects are nonlinear rather than linear, thus could not modeled explicitly in multilevel linear regression models.

A zero-augmented generalized gamma regression calibration to adjust for covariate measurement error: A case of an episodically consumed dietary intake

PubMed Central

Agogo, George O.

2017-01-01

Measurement error in exposure variables is a serious impediment in epidemiological studies that relate exposures to health outcomes. In nutritional studies, interest could be in the association between long-term dietary intake and disease occurrence. Long-term intake is usually assessed with food frequency questionnaire (FFQ), which is prone to recall bias. Measurement error in FFQ-reported intakes leads to bias in parameter estimate that quantifies the association. To adjust for bias in the association, a calibration study is required to obtain unbiased intake measurements using a short-term instrument such as 24-hour recall (24HR). The 24HR intakes are used as response in regression calibration to adjust for bias in the association. For foods not consumed daily, 24HR-reported intakes are usually characterized by excess zeroes, right skewness, and heteroscedasticity posing serious challenge in regression calibration modeling. We proposed a zero-augmented calibration model to adjust for measurement error in reported intake, while handling excess zeroes, skewness, and heteroscedasticity simultaneously without transforming 24HR intake values. We compared the proposed calibration method with the standard method and with methods that ignore measurement error by estimating long-term intake with 24HR and FFQ-reported intakes. The comparison was done in real and simulated datasets. With the 24HR, the mean increase in mercury level per ounce fish intake was about 0.4; with the FFQ intake, the increase was about 1.2. With both calibration methods, the mean increase was about 2.0. Similar trend was observed in the simulation study. In conclusion, the proposed calibration method performs at least as good as the standard method. PMID:27704599

Incorporating local land use regression and satellite aerosol optical depth in a hybrid model of spatiotemporal PM2.5 exposures in the Mid-Atlantic states.

PubMed

Kloog, Itai; Nordio, Francesco; Coull, Brent A; Schwartz, Joel

2012-11-06

Satellite-derived aerosol optical depth (AOD) measurements have the potential to provide spatiotemporally resolved predictions of both long and short-term exposures, but previous studies have generally shown moderate predictive power and lacked detailed high spatio- temporal resolution predictions across large domains. We aimed at extending our previous work by validating our model in another region with different geographical and metrological characteristics, and incorporating fine scale land use regression and nonrandom missingness to better predict PM(2.5) concentrations for days with or without satellite AOD measures. We start by calibrating AOD data for 2000-2008 across the Mid-Atlantic. We used mixed models regressing PM(2.5) measurements against day-specific random intercepts, and fixed and random AOD and temperature slopes. We used inverse probability weighting to account for nonrandom missingness of AOD, nested regions within days to capture spatial variation in the daily calibration, and introduced a penalization method that reduces the dimensionality of the large number of spatial and temporal predictors without selecting different predictors in different locations. We then take advantage of the association between grid-cell specific AOD values and PM(2.5) monitoring data, together with associations between AOD values in neighboring grid cells to develop grid cell predictions when AOD is missing. Finally to get local predictions (at the resolution of 50 m), we regressed the residuals from the predictions for each monitor from these previous steps against the local land use variables specific for each monitor. "Out-of-sample" 10-fold cross-validation was used to quantify the accuracy of our predictions at each step. For all days without AOD values, model performance was excellent (mean "out-of-sample" R(2) = 0.81, year-to-year variation 0.79-0.84). Upon removal of outliers in the PM(2.5) monitoring data, the results of the cross validation procedure was even better (overall mean "out of sample"R(2) of 0.85). Further, cross validation results revealed no bias in the predicted concentrations (Slope of observed vs predicted = 0.97-1.01). Our model allows one to reliably assess short-term and long-term human exposures in order to investigate both the acute and effects of ambient particles, respectively.

Covariance functions for body weight from birth to maturity in Nellore cows.

PubMed

Boligon, A A; Mercadante, M E Z; Forni, S; Lôbo, R B; Albuquerque, L G

2010-03-01

The objective of this study was to estimate (co)variance functions using random regression models on Legendre polynomials for the analysis of repeated measures of BW from birth to adult age. A total of 82,064 records from 8,145 females were analyzed. Different models were compared. The models included additive direct and maternal effects, and animal and maternal permanent environmental effects as random terms. Contemporary group and dam age at calving (linear and quadratic effect) were included as fixed effects, and orthogonal Legendre polynomials of animal age (cubic regression) were considered as random covariables. Eight models with polynomials of third to sixth order were used to describe additive direct and maternal effects, and animal and maternal permanent environmental effects. Residual effects were modeled using 1 (i.e., assuming homogeneity of variances across all ages) or 5 age classes. The model with 5 classes was the best to describe the trajectory of residuals along the growth curve. The model including fourth- and sixth-order polynomials for additive direct and animal permanent environmental effects, respectively, and third-order polynomials for maternal genetic and maternal permanent environmental effects were the best. Estimates of (co)variance obtained with the multi-trait and random regression models were similar. Direct heritability estimates obtained with the random regression models followed a trend similar to that obtained with the multi-trait model. The largest estimates of maternal heritability were those of BW taken close to 240 d of age. In general, estimates of correlation between BW from birth to 8 yr of age decreased with increasing distance between ages.

A canonical correlation neural network for multicollinearity and functional data.

PubMed

Gou, Zhenkun; Fyfe, Colin

2004-03-01

We review a recent neural implementation of Canonical Correlation Analysis and show, using ideas suggested by Ridge Regression, how to make the algorithm robust. The network is shown to operate on data sets which exhibit multicollinearity. We develop a second model which not only performs as well on multicollinear data but also on general data sets. This model allows us to vary a single parameter so that the network is capable of performing Partial Least Squares regression (at one extreme) to Canonical Correlation Analysis (at the other)and every intermediate operation between the two. On multicollinear data, the parameter setting is shown to be important but on more general data no particular parameter setting is required. Finally, we develop a second penalty term which acts on such data as a smoother in that the resulting weight vectors are much smoother and more interpretable than the weights without the robustification term. We illustrate our algorithms on both artificial and real data.

Analysis and generation of groundwater concentration time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crăciun, Maria; Vamoş, Călin; Suciu, Nicolae

2018-01-01

Concentration time series are provided by simulated concentrations of a nonreactive solute transported in groundwater, integrated over the transverse direction of a two-dimensional computational domain and recorded at the plume center of mass. The analysis of a statistical ensemble of time series reveals subtle features that are not captured by the first two moments which characterize the approximate Gaussian distribution of the two-dimensional concentration fields. The concentration time series exhibit a complex preasymptotic behavior driven by a nonstationary trend and correlated fluctuations with time-variable amplitude. Time series with almost the same statistics are generated by successively adding to a time-dependent trend a sum of linear regression terms, accounting for correlations between fluctuations around the trend and their increments in time, and terms of an amplitude modulated autoregressive noise of order one with time-varying parameter. The algorithm generalizes mixing models used in probability density function approaches. The well-known interaction by exchange with the mean mixing model is a special case consisting of a linear regression with constant coefficients.

Forecasting urban water demand: A meta-regression analysis.

PubMed

Sebri, Maamar

2016-12-01

Water managers and planners require accurate water demand forecasts over the short-, medium- and long-term for many purposes. These range from assessing water supply needs over spatial and temporal patterns to optimizing future investments and planning future allocations across competing sectors. This study surveys the empirical literature on the urban water demand forecasting using the meta-analytical approach. Specifically, using more than 600 estimates, a meta-regression analysis is conducted to identify explanations of cross-studies variation in accuracy of urban water demand forecasting. Our study finds that accuracy depends significantly on study characteristics, including demand periodicity, modeling method, forecasting horizon, model specification and sample size. The meta-regression results remain robust to different estimators employed as well as to a series of sensitivity checks performed. The importance of these findings lies in the conclusions and implications drawn out for regulators and policymakers and for academics alike. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Calibration and Data Analysis of the MC-130 Air Balance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Booth, Dennis; Ulbrich, N.

2012-01-01

Design, calibration, calibration analysis, and intended use of the MC-130 air balance are discussed. The MC-130 balance is an 8.0 inch diameter force balance that has two separate internal air flow systems and one external bellows system. The manual calibration of the balance consisted of a total of 1854 data points with both unpressurized and pressurized air flowing through the balance. A subset of 1160 data points was chosen for the calibration data analysis. The regression analysis of the subset was performed using two fundamentally different analysis approaches. First, the data analysis was performed using a recently developed extension of the Iterative Method. This approach fits gage outputs as a function of both applied balance loads and bellows pressures while still allowing the application of the iteration scheme that is used with the Iterative Method. Then, for comparison, the axial force was also analyzed using the Non-Iterative Method. This alternate approach directly fits loads as a function of measured gage outputs and bellows pressures and does not require a load iteration. The regression models used by both the extended Iterative and Non-Iterative Method were constructed such that they met a set of widely accepted statistical quality requirements. These requirements lead to reliable regression models and prevent overfitting of data because they ensure that no hidden near-linear dependencies between regression model terms exist and that only statistically significant terms are included. Finally, a comparison of the axial force residuals was performed. Overall, axial force estimates obtained from both methods show excellent agreement as the differences of the standard deviation of the axial force residuals are on the order of 0.001 % of the axial force capacity.

Machine learning modeling of plant phenology based on coupling satellite and gridded meteorological dataset

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Czernecki, Bartosz; Nowosad, Jakub; Jabłońska, Katarzyna

2018-04-01

Changes in the timing of plant phenological phases are important proxies in contemporary climate research. However, most of the commonly used traditional phenological observations do not give any coherent spatial information. While consistent spatial data can be obtained from airborne sensors and preprocessed gridded meteorological data, not many studies robustly benefit from these data sources. Therefore, the main aim of this study is to create and evaluate different statistical models for reconstructing, predicting, and improving quality of phenological phases monitoring with the use of satellite and meteorological products. A quality-controlled dataset of the 13 BBCH plant phenophases in Poland was collected for the period 2007-2014. For each phenophase, statistical models were built using the most commonly applied regression-based machine learning techniques, such as multiple linear regression, lasso, principal component regression, generalized boosted models, and random forest. The quality of the models was estimated using a k-fold cross-validation. The obtained results showed varying potential for coupling meteorological derived indices with remote sensing products in terms of phenological modeling; however, application of both data sources improves models' accuracy from 0.6 to 4.6 day in terms of obtained RMSE. It is shown that a robust prediction of early phenological phases is mostly related to meteorological indices, whereas for autumn phenophases, there is a stronger information signal provided by satellite-derived vegetation metrics. Choosing a specific set of predictors and applying a robust preprocessing procedures is more important for final results than the selection of a particular statistical model. The average RMSE for the best models of all phenophases is 6.3, while the individual RMSE vary seasonally from 3.5 to 10 days. Models give reliable proxy for ground observations with RMSE below 5 days for early spring and late spring phenophases. For other phenophases, RMSE are higher and rise up to 9-10 days in the case of the earliest spring phenophases.

Soil Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn sorption and retention models using SVM: Variable selection and competitive model.

PubMed

González Costa, J J; Reigosa, M J; Matías, J M; Covelo, E F

2017-09-01

The aim of this study was to model the sorption and retention of Cd, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn in soils. To that extent, the sorption and retention of these metals were studied and the soil characterization was performed separately. Multiple stepwise regression was used to produce multivariate models with linear techniques and with support vector machines, all of which included 15 explanatory variables characterizing soils. When the R-squared values are represented, two different groups are noticed. Cr, Cu and Pb sorption and retention show a higher R-squared; the most explanatory variables being humified organic matter, Al oxides and, in some cases, cation-exchange capacity (CEC). The other group of metals (Cd, Ni and Zn) shows a lower R-squared, and clays are the most explanatory variables, including a percentage of vermiculite and slime. In some cases, quartz, plagioclase or hematite percentages also show some explanatory capacity. Support Vector Machine (SVM) regression shows that the different models are not as regular as in multiple regression in terms of number of variables, the regression for nickel adsorption being the one with the highest number of variables in its optimal model. On the other hand, there are cases where the most explanatory variables are the same for two metals, as it happens with Cd and Cr adsorption. A similar adsorption mechanism is thus postulated. These patterns of the introduction of variables in the model allow us to create explainability sequences. Those which are the most similar to the selectivity sequences obtained by Covelo (2005) are Mn oxides in multiple regression and change capacity in SVM. Among all the variables, the only one that is explanatory for all the metals after applying the maximum parsimony principle is the percentage of sand in the retention process. In the competitive model arising from the aforementioned sequences, the most intense competitiveness for the adsorption and retention of different metals appears between Cr and Cd, Cu and Zn in multiple regression; and between Cr and Cd in SVM regression. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Can dispersion modeling of air pollution be improved by land-use regression? An example from Stockholm, Sweden

PubMed Central

Korek, Michal; Johansson, Christer; Svensson, Nina; Lind, Tomas; Beelen, Rob; Hoek, Gerard; Pershagen, Göran; Bellander, Tom

2017-01-01

Both dispersion modeling (DM) and land-use regression modeling (LUR) are often used for assessment of long-term air pollution exposure in epidemiological studies, but seldom in combination. We developed a hybrid DM–LUR model using 93 biweekly observations of NOx at 31 sites in greater Stockholm (Sweden). The DM was based on spatially resolved topographic, physiographic and emission data, and hourly meteorological data from a diagnostic wind model. Other data were from land use, meteorology and routine monitoring of NOx. We built a linear regression model for NOx, using a stepwise forward selection of covariates. The resulting model predicted observed NOx (R2=0.89) better than the DM without covariates (R2=0.68, P-interaction <0.001) and with minimal apparent bias. The model included (in descending order of importance) DM, traffic intensity on the nearest street, population (number of inhabitants) within 100 m radius, global radiation (direct sunlight plus diffuse or scattered light) and urban contribution to NOx levels (routine urban NOx, less routine rural NOx). Our results indicate that there is a potential for improving estimates of air pollutant concentrations based on DM, by incorporating further spatial characteristics of the immediate surroundings, possibly accounting for imperfections in the emission data. PMID:27485990

Can dispersion modeling of air pollution be improved by land-use regression? An example from Stockholm, Sweden.

PubMed

Korek, Michal; Johansson, Christer; Svensson, Nina; Lind, Tomas; Beelen, Rob; Hoek, Gerard; Pershagen, Göran; Bellander, Tom

2017-11-01

Both dispersion modeling (DM) and land-use regression modeling (LUR) are often used for assessment of long-term air pollution exposure in epidemiological studies, but seldom in combination. We developed a hybrid DM-LUR model using 93 biweekly observations of NO x at 31 sites in greater Stockholm (Sweden). The DM was based on spatially resolved topographic, physiographic and emission data, and hourly meteorological data from a diagnostic wind model. Other data were from land use, meteorology and routine monitoring of NO x . We built a linear regression model for NO x , using a stepwise forward selection of covariates. The resulting model predicted observed NO x (R 2 =0.89) better than the DM without covariates (R 2 =0.68, P-interaction <0.001) and with minimal apparent bias. The model included (in descending order of importance) DM, traffic intensity on the nearest street, population (number of inhabitants) within 100 m radius, global radiation (direct sunlight plus diffuse or scattered light) and urban contribution to NO x levels (routine urban NO x , less routine rural NO x ). Our results indicate that there is a potential for improving estimates of air pollutant concentrations based on DM, by incorporating further spatial characteristics of the immediate surroundings, possibly accounting for imperfections in the emission data.

WebGLORE: a Web service for Grid LOgistic REgression

PubMed Central

Jiang, Wenchao; Li, Pinghao; Wang, Shuang; Wu, Yuan; Xue, Meng; Ohno-Machado, Lucila; Jiang, Xiaoqian

2013-01-01

WebGLORE is a free web service that enables privacy-preserving construction of a global logistic regression model from distributed datasets that are sensitive. It only transfers aggregated local statistics (from participants) through Hypertext Transfer Protocol Secure to a trusted server, where the global model is synthesized. WebGLORE seamlessly integrates AJAX, JAVA Applet/Servlet and PHP technologies to provide an easy-to-use web service for biomedical researchers to break down policy barriers during information exchange. Availability and implementation: http://dbmi-engine.ucsd.edu/webglore3/. WebGLORE can be used under the terms of GNU general public license as published by the Free Software Foundation. Contact: x1jiang@ucsd.edu PMID:24072732

The analysis of incontinence episodes and other count data in patients with overactive bladder by Poisson and negative binomial regression.

PubMed

Martina, R; Kay, R; van Maanen, R; Ridder, A

2015-01-01

Clinical studies in overactive bladder have traditionally used analysis of covariance or nonparametric methods to analyse the number of incontinence episodes and other count data. It is known that if the underlying distributional assumptions of a particular parametric method do not hold, an alternative parametric method may be more efficient than a nonparametric one, which makes no assumptions regarding the underlying distribution of the data. Therefore, there are advantages in using methods based on the Poisson distribution or extensions of that method, which incorporate specific features that provide a modelling framework for count data. One challenge with count data is overdispersion, but methods are available that can account for this through the introduction of random effect terms in the modelling, and it is this modelling framework that leads to the negative binomial distribution. These models can also provide clinicians with a clearer and more appropriate interpretation of treatment effects in terms of rate ratios. In this paper, the previously used parametric and non-parametric approaches are contrasted with those based on Poisson regression and various extensions in trials evaluating solifenacin and mirabegron in patients with overactive bladder. In these applications, negative binomial models are seen to fit the data well. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Composite marginal quantile regression analysis for longitudinal adolescent body mass index data.

PubMed

Yang, Chi-Chuan; Chen, Yi-Hau; Chang, Hsing-Yi

2017-09-20

Childhood and adolescenthood overweight or obesity, which may be quantified through the body mass index (BMI), is strongly associated with adult obesity and other health problems. Motivated by the child and adolescent behaviors in long-term evolution (CABLE) study, we are interested in individual, family, and school factors associated with marginal quantiles of longitudinal adolescent BMI values. We propose a new method for composite marginal quantile regression analysis for longitudinal outcome data, which performs marginal quantile regressions at multiple quantile levels simultaneously. The proposed method extends the quantile regression coefficient modeling method introduced by Frumento and Bottai (Biometrics 2016; 72:74-84) to longitudinal data accounting suitably for the correlation structure in longitudinal observations. A goodness-of-fit test for the proposed modeling is also developed. Simulation results show that the proposed method can be much more efficient than the analysis without taking correlation into account and the analysis performing separate quantile regressions at different quantile levels. The application to the longitudinal adolescent BMI data from the CABLE study demonstrates the practical utility of our proposal. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Influence factors and forecast of carbon emission in China: structure adjustment for emission peak

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, B.; Cui, C. Q.; Li, Z. P.

2018-02-01

This paper introduced Principal Component Analysis and Multivariate Linear Regression Model to verify long-term balance relationships between Carbon Emissions and the impact factors. The integrated model of improved PCA and multivariate regression analysis model is attainable to figure out the pattern of carbon emission sources. Main empirical results indicate that among all selected variables, the role of energy consumption scale was largest. GDP and Population follow and also have significant impacts on carbon emission. Industrialization rate and fossil fuel proportion, which is the indicator of reflecting the economic structure and energy structure, have a higher importance than the factor of urbanization rate and the dweller consumption level of urban areas. In this way, some suggestions are put forward for government to achieve the peak of carbon emissions.

Comparing statistical and machine learning classifiers: alternatives for predictive modeling in human factors research.

PubMed

Carnahan, Brian; Meyer, Gérard; Kuntz, Lois-Ann

2003-01-01

Multivariate classification models play an increasingly important role in human factors research. In the past, these models have been based primarily on discriminant analysis and logistic regression. Models developed from machine learning research offer the human factors professional a viable alternative to these traditional statistical classification methods. To illustrate this point, two machine learning approaches--genetic programming and decision tree induction--were used to construct classification models designed to predict whether or not a student truck driver would pass his or her commercial driver license (CDL) examination. The models were developed and validated using the curriculum scores and CDL exam performances of 37 student truck drivers who had completed a 320-hr driver training course. Results indicated that the machine learning classification models were superior to discriminant analysis and logistic regression in terms of predictive accuracy. Actual or potential applications of this research include the creation of models that more accurately predict human performance outcomes.

Derivation of the linear-logistic model and Cox's proportional hazard model from a canonical system description.

PubMed

Voit, E O; Knapp, R G

1997-08-15

The linear-logistic regression model and Cox's proportional hazard model are widely used in epidemiology. Their successful application leaves no doubt that they are accurate reflections of observed disease processes and their associated risks or incidence rates. In spite of their prominence, it is not a priori evident why these models work. This article presents a derivation of the two models from the framework of canonical modeling. It begins with a general description of the dynamics between risk sources and disease development, formulates this description in the canonical representation of an S-system, and shows how the linear-logistic model and Cox's proportional hazard model follow naturally from this representation. The article interprets the model parameters in terms of epidemiological concepts as well as in terms of general systems theory and explains the assumptions and limitations generally accepted in the application of these epidemiological models.

Modelling long-term fire occurrence factors in Spain by accounting for local variations with geographically weighted regression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martínez-Fernández, J.; Chuvieco, E.; Koutsias, N.

2013-02-01

Humans are responsible for most forest fires in Europe, but anthropogenic factors behind these events are still poorly understood. We tried to identify the driving factors of human-caused fire occurrence in Spain by applying two different statistical approaches. Firstly, assuming stationary processes for the whole country, we created models based on multiple linear regression and binary logistic regression to find factors associated with fire density and fire presence, respectively. Secondly, we used geographically weighted regression (GWR) to better understand and explore the local and regional variations of those factors behind human-caused fire occurrence. The number of human-caused fires occurring within a 25-yr period (1983-2007) was computed for each of the 7638 Spanish mainland municipalities, creating a binary variable (fire/no fire) to develop logistic models, and a continuous variable (fire density) to build standard linear regression models. A total of 383 657 fires were registered in the study dataset. The binary logistic model, which estimates the probability of having/not having a fire, successfully classified 76.4% of the total observations, while the ordinary least squares (OLS) regression model explained 53% of the variation of the fire density patterns (adjusted R2 = 0.53). Both approaches confirmed, in addition to forest and climatic variables, the importance of variables related with agrarian activities, land abandonment, rural population exodus and developmental processes as underlying factors of fire occurrence. For the GWR approach, the explanatory power of the GW linear model for fire density using an adaptive bandwidth increased from 53% to 67%, while for the GW logistic model the correctly classified observations improved only slightly, from 76.4% to 78.4%, but significantly according to the corrected Akaike Information Criterion (AICc), from 3451.19 to 3321.19. The results from GWR indicated a significant spatial variation in the local parameter estimates for all the variables and an important reduction of the autocorrelation in the residuals of the GW linear model. Despite the fitting improvement of local models, GW regression, more than an alternative to "global" or traditional regression modelling, seems to be a valuable complement to explore the non-stationary relationships between the response variable and the explanatory variables. The synergy of global and local modelling provides insights into fire management and policy and helps further our understanding of the fire problem over large areas while at the same time recognizing its local character.

Active Learning with Statistical Models.

DTIC Science & Technology

1995-01-01

Active Learning with Statistical Models ASC-9217041, NSF CDA-9309300 6. AUTHOR(S) David A. Cohn, Zoubin Ghahramani, and Michael I. Jordan 7. PERFORMING...TERMS 15. NUMBER OF PAGES Al, MIT, Artificial Intelligence, active learning , queries, locally weighted 6 regression, LOESS, mixtures of gaussians...COMPUTATIONAL LEARNING DEPARTMENT OF BRAIN AND COGNITIVE SCIENCES A.I. Memo No. 1522 January 9. 1995 C.B.C.L. Paper No. 110 Active Learning with

Chain pooling to minimize prediction error in subset regression. [Monte Carlo studies using population models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Holms, A. G.

1974-01-01

Monte Carlo studies using population models intended to represent response surface applications are reported. Simulated experiments were generated by adding pseudo random normally distributed errors to population values to generate observations. Model equations were fitted to the observations and the decision procedure was used to delete terms. Comparison of values predicted by the reduced models with the true population values enabled the identification of deletion strategies that are approximately optimal for minimizing prediction errors.

Hybrid ABC Optimized MARS-Based Modeling of the Milling Tool Wear from Milling Run Experimental Data

PubMed Central

García Nieto, Paulino José; García-Gonzalo, Esperanza; Ordóñez Galán, Celestino; Bernardo Sánchez, Antonio

2016-01-01

Milling cutters are important cutting tools used in milling machines to perform milling operations, which are prone to wear and subsequent failure. In this paper, a practical new hybrid model to predict the milling tool wear in a regular cut, as well as entry cut and exit cut, of a milling tool is proposed. The model was based on the optimization tool termed artificial bee colony (ABC) in combination with multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) technique. This optimization mechanism involved the parameter setting in the MARS training procedure, which significantly influences the regression accuracy. Therefore, an ABC–MARS-based model was successfully used here to predict the milling tool flank wear (output variable) as a function of the following input variables: the time duration of experiment, depth of cut, feed, type of material, etc. Regression with optimal hyperparameters was performed and a determination coefficient of 0.94 was obtained. The ABC–MARS-based model's goodness of fit to experimental data confirmed the good performance of this model. This new model also allowed us to ascertain the most influential parameters on the milling tool flank wear with a view to proposing milling machine's improvements. Finally, conclusions of this study are exposed. PMID:28787882

Hybrid ABC Optimized MARS-Based Modeling of the Milling Tool Wear from Milling Run Experimental Data.

PubMed

García Nieto, Paulino José; García-Gonzalo, Esperanza; Ordóñez Galán, Celestino; Bernardo Sánchez, Antonio

2016-01-28

Milling cutters are important cutting tools used in milling machines to perform milling operations, which are prone to wear and subsequent failure. In this paper, a practical new hybrid model to predict the milling tool wear in a regular cut, as well as entry cut and exit cut, of a milling tool is proposed. The model was based on the optimization tool termed artificial bee colony (ABC) in combination with multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) technique. This optimization mechanism involved the parameter setting in the MARS training procedure, which significantly influences the regression accuracy. Therefore, an ABC-MARS-based model was successfully used here to predict the milling tool flank wear (output variable) as a function of the following input variables: the time duration of experiment, depth of cut, feed, type of material, etc . Regression with optimal hyperparameters was performed and a determination coefficient of 0.94 was obtained. The ABC-MARS-based model's goodness of fit to experimental data confirmed the good performance of this model. This new model also allowed us to ascertain the most influential parameters on the milling tool flank wear with a view to proposing milling machine's improvements. Finally, conclusions of this study are exposed.

Statistical approach to the analysis of olive long-term pollen season trends in southern Spain.

PubMed

García-Mozo, H; Yaezel, L; Oteros, J; Galán, C

2014-03-01

Analysis of long-term airborne pollen counts makes it possible not only to chart pollen-season trends but also to track changing patterns in flowering phenology. Changes in higher plant response over a long interval are considered among the most valuable bioindicators of climate change impact. Phenological-trend models can also provide information regarding crop production and pollen-allergen emission. The interest of this information makes essential the election of the statistical analysis for time series study. We analysed trends and variations in the olive flowering season over a 30-year period (1982-2011) in southern Europe (Córdoba, Spain), focussing on: annual Pollen Index (PI); Pollen Season Start (PSS), Peak Date (PD), Pollen Season End (PSE) and Pollen Season Duration (PSD). Apart from the traditional Linear Regression analysis, a Seasonal-Trend Decomposition procedure based on Loess (STL) and an ARIMA model were performed. Linear regression results indicated a trend toward delayed PSE and earlier PSS and PD, probably influenced by the rise in temperature. These changes are provoking longer flowering periods in the study area. The use of the STL technique provided a clearer picture of phenological behaviour. Data decomposition on pollination dynamics enabled the trend toward an alternate bearing cycle to be distinguished from the influence of other stochastic fluctuations. Results pointed to show a rising trend in pollen production. With a view toward forecasting future phenological trends, ARIMA models were constructed to predict PSD, PSS and PI until 2016. Projections displayed a better goodness of fit than those derived from linear regression. Findings suggest that olive reproductive cycle is changing considerably over the last 30years due to climate change. Further conclusions are that STL improves the effectiveness of traditional linear regression in trend analysis, and ARIMA models can provide reliable trend projections for future years taking into account the internal fluctuations in time series. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Comparison of Mathematical Models of Fish Mercury Concentration as a Function of Atmospheric Mercury Deposition Rate and Watershed Characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, R. A.; Moore, R. B.; Shanley, J. B.; Miller, E. K.; Kamman, N. C.; Nacci, D.

2009-12-01

Mercury (Hg) concentrations in fish and aquatic wildlife are complex functions of atmospheric Hg deposition rate, terrestrial and aquatic watershed characteristics that influence Hg methylation and export, and food chain characteristics determining Hg bioaccumulation. Because of the complexity and incomplete understanding of these processes, regional-scale models of fish tissue Hg concentration are necessarily empirical in nature, typically constructed through regression analysis of fish tissue Hg concentration data from many sampling locations on a set of potential explanatory variables. Unless the data sets are unusually long and show clear time trends, the empirical basis for model building must be based solely on spatial correlation. Predictive regional scale models are highly useful for improving understanding of the relevant biogeochemical processes, as well as for practical fish and wildlife management and human health protection. Mechanistically, the logical arrangement of explanatory variables is to multiply each of the individual Hg source terms (e.g. dry, wet, and gaseous deposition rates, and residual watershed Hg) for a given fish sampling location by source-specific terms pertaining to methylation, watershed transport, and biological uptake for that location (e.g. SO4 availability, hill slope, lake size). This mathematical form has the desirable property that predicted tissue concentration will approach zero as all individual source terms approach zero. One complication with this form, however, is that it is inconsistent with the standard linear multiple regression equation in which all terms (including those for sources and physical conditions) are additive. An important practical disadvantage of a model in which the Hg source terms are additive (rather than multiplicative) with their modifying factors is that predicted concentration is not zero when all sources are zero, making it unreliable for predicting the effects of large future reductions in Hg deposition. In this paper we compare the results of using several different linear and non-linear models in an analysis of watershed and fish Hg data for 450 New England lakes. The differences in model results pertain to both their utility in interpreting methylation and export processes as well as in fisheries management.

The Naïve Overfitting Index Selection (NOIS): A new method to optimize model complexity for hyperspectral data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rocha, Alby D.; Groen, Thomas A.; Skidmore, Andrew K.; Darvishzadeh, Roshanak; Willemen, Louise

2017-11-01

The growing number of narrow spectral bands in hyperspectral remote sensing improves the capacity to describe and predict biological processes in ecosystems. But it also poses a challenge to fit empirical models based on such high dimensional data, which often contain correlated and noisy predictors. As sample sizes, to train and validate empirical models, seem not to be increasing at the same rate, overfitting has become a serious concern. Overly complex models lead to overfitting by capturing more than the underlying relationship, and also through fitting random noise in the data. Many regression techniques claim to overcome these problems by using different strategies to constrain complexity, such as limiting the number of terms in the model, by creating latent variables or by shrinking parameter coefficients. This paper is proposing a new method, named Naïve Overfitting Index Selection (NOIS), which makes use of artificially generated spectra, to quantify the relative model overfitting and to select an optimal model complexity supported by the data. The robustness of this new method is assessed by comparing it to a traditional model selection based on cross-validation. The optimal model complexity is determined for seven different regression techniques, such as partial least squares regression, support vector machine, artificial neural network and tree-based regressions using five hyperspectral datasets. The NOIS method selects less complex models, which present accuracies similar to the cross-validation method. The NOIS method reduces the chance of overfitting, thereby avoiding models that present accurate predictions that are only valid for the data used, and too complex to make inferences about the underlying process.

Fuzzy multinomial logistic regression analysis: A multi-objective programming approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdalla, Hesham A.; El-Sayed, Amany A.; Hamed, Ramadan

2017-05-01

Parameter estimation for multinomial logistic regression is usually based on maximizing the likelihood function. For large well-balanced datasets, Maximum Likelihood (ML) estimation is a satisfactory approach. Unfortunately, ML can fail completely or at least produce poor results in terms of estimated probabilities and confidence intervals of parameters, specially for small datasets. In this study, a new approach based on fuzzy concepts is proposed to estimate parameters of the multinomial logistic regression. The study assumes that the parameters of multinomial logistic regression are fuzzy. Based on the extension principle stated by Zadeh and Bárdossy's proposition, a multi-objective programming approach is suggested to estimate these fuzzy parameters. A simulation study is used to evaluate the performance of the new approach versus Maximum likelihood (ML) approach. Results show that the new proposed model outperforms ML in cases of small datasets.

Residence times in river basins as determined by analysis of long-term tritium records

USGS Publications Warehouse

Michel, R.L.

1992-01-01

The US Geological Survey has maintained a network of stations to collect samples for the measurement of tritium concentrations in precipitation and streamflow since the early 1960s. Tritium data from outflow waters of river basins draining 4500-75000 km2 are used to determine average residence times of water within the basins. The basins studied are the Colorado River above Cisco, Utah; the Kissimmee River above Lake Okeechobee, Florida; the Mississippi River above Anoka, Minnesota; the Neuse River above Streets Ferry Bridge near Vanceboro, North Carolina; the Potomac River above Point of Rocks, Maryland; the Sacramento River above Sacramento, California; the Susquehanna River above Harrisburg, Pennsylvania. The basins are modeled with the assumption that the outflow in the river comes from two sources-prompt (within-year) runoff from precipitation, and flow from the long-term reservoirs of the basin. Tritium concentration in the outflow water of the basin is dependent on three factors: (1) tritium concentration in runoff from the long-term reservoir, which depends on the residence time for the reservoir and historical tritium concentrations in precipitation; (2) tritium concentrations in precipitation (the within-year runoff component); (3) relative contributions of flow from the long-term and within-year components. Predicted tritium concentrations for the outflow water in the river basins were calculated for different residence times and for different relative contributions from the two reservoirs. A box model was used to calculate tritium concentrations in the long-term reservoir. Calculated values of outflow tritium concentrations for the basin were regressed against the measured data to obtain a slope as close as possible to 1. These regressions assumed an intercept of zero and were carried out for different values of residence time and reservoir contribution to maximize the fit of modeled versus actual data for all the above rivers. The final slopes of the fitted regression lines ranged from 0.95 to 1.01 (correlation coefficient > 0.96) for the basins studied. Values for the residence time of waters within the basins and average relative contributions of the within-year and long-term reservoirs to outflow were obtained. Values for river basin residence times ranged from 2 years for the Kissimmee River basin to 20 years for the Potomac River basin. The residence times indicate the time scale in which the basin responds to anthropogenic inputs. The modeled tritium concentrations for the basins also furnish input data for urban and agricultural settings where these river waters are used. ?? 1992.

Impact of the 1990 Hong Kong legislation for restriction on sulfur content in fuel.

PubMed

Wong, Chit-Ming; Rabl, Ari; Thach, Thuan Q; Chau, Yuen Kwan; Chan, King Pan; Cowling, Benjamin J; Lai, Hak Kan; Lam, Tai Hing; McGhee, Sarah M; Anderson, H Ross; Hedley, Anthony J

2012-08-01

After the implementation of a regulation restricting sulfur to 0.5% by weight in fuel on July 1, 1990, in Hong Kong, sulfur dioxide (SO2*) levels fell by 45% on average and as much as 80% in the most polluted districts (Hedley et al. 2002). In addition, a reduction of respiratory symptoms and an improvement in bronchial hyperresponsiveness in children were observed (Peters et al. 1996; Wong et al. 1998). A recent time-series study (Hedley et al. 2002) found an immediate reduction in mortality during the cool season at six months after the intervention, followed by an increase in cool-season mortality in the second and third years, suggesting that the reduction in pollution was associated with a delay in mortality. Proportional changes in mortality trends between the 5-year periods before and after the intervention were measured as relative risks and used to assess gains in life expectancy using the life table method (Hedley et al. 2002). To further explore the relation between changes in pollution-related mortality before and after the intervention, our study had three objectives: (1) to evaluate the short-term effects on mortality of changes in the pollutant mix after the Hong Kong sulfur intervention, particularly with changes in the particulate matter (PM) chemical species; (2) to improve the methodology for assessment of the health impact in terms of changes in life expectancy using linear regression models; and (3) to develop an approach for analyzing changes in life expectancy from Poisson regression models. A fourth overarching objective was to determine the relation between short- and long-term benefits due to an improvement in air quality. For an assessment of the short-term effects on mortality due to changes in the pollutant mix, we developed Poisson regression Core Models with natural spline smoothers to control for long-term and seasonal confounding variations in the mortality counts and with covariates to adjust for temperature (T) and relative humidity (RH). We assessed the adequacy of the Core Models by evaluating the results against the Akaike Information Criterion, which stipulates that, at a minimum, partial autocorrelation plots should be between -0.1 and 0.1, and by examining the residual plots to make sure they were free from patterns. We assessed the effects for gaseous pollutants (NO2, SO2, and O3), PM with an aerodynamic diameter < or = 10 microm (PM10), and its chemical species (aluminum [Al], iron [Fe], manganese [Mn], nickel [Ni], vanadium [V], lead [Pb], and zinc [Zn]) using the Core Models, which were developed for the periods 5 years (or 2 years in the case of the sensitivity analysis) before and 5 years after the intervention, as well as in the10-year (or 7-year in the case of the sensitivity analysis) period pre- and post-intervention. We also included an indicator to separate the pre- and post-intervention periods, as well as the product of the indicator with an air pollution concentration variable. The health outcomes were mortality for all natural causes and for cardiovascular and respiratory causes, at all ages and in the 65 years or older age group. To assess the short- and long-term effects, we developed two methods: one using linear regression models reflecting the age-standardized mortality rate D(j) at day j, divided by a reference D(ref); and the other using Poisson regression models with daily mortality counts as the outcome variables. We also used both models to evaluate the relation between outcome variables and daily air pollution concentrations in the current day up to all previous days in the past 3 to 4 years. In the linear regression approach, we adjusted the data for temperature and relative humidity. We then removed season as a potential confounder, or deseasonalized them, by calculating a standard seasonal mortality rate profile, normalized to an annual average of unity, and dividing the mortality rates by this profile. Finally, to correct for long-term trends, we calculated a reference mortality rate D(ref)(j) as a moving average of the corrected and deseasonalized D(j) over the observation window. Then we regressed the outcome variable D(j)/D(ref) on an entire exposure sequence {c(i)} with lags up to 4 years in order to obtain impact coefficient f(i) from the regression model shown below: deltaD(j)/D (ref) = i(max)sigma f(i) c(j - i)(i = 0). The change in life expectancy (LE) for a change of units (deltac) in the concentration of pollutants on T(day)--representing the short interval (i.e., a day)--was calculated from the following equation (deltaL(pop) = average loss in life expectancy of an entire population): deltaL(pop) = -deltac T(day) infinity sigma (j = 0) infinity sigma f(i) (i = 0). In the Poisson regression approach, we fitted a distributed-lag model for exposure to previous days of up to 4 years in order to obtain the cumulative lag effect sigma beta(i). We fit the linear regression model of log(LE*/LE) = gamma(SMR - 1) + alpha to estimate the parameter gamma by gamma, where LE* and LE are life expectancy for an exposed and an unexposed population, respectively, and SMR represents the standardized mortality ratio. The life expectancy change per Ac increase in concentration is LE {exp[gamma delta c(sigma beta(i))]-1}. In our assessment of the changes in pollutant levels, the mean levels of SO2, Ni, and V showed a statistically significant decline, particularly in industrial areas. Ni and V showed the greatest impact on mortality, especially for respiratory diseases in the 5-year pre-intervention period for both the all-ages and 65+ groups among all chemical species. There were decreases in excess risks associated with Ni and V after the intervention, but they were nonsignificant. Using the linear regression approach, with a window of 1095 days (3 years), the losses in life expectancy with a 10-microg/m3 increase in concentrations, using two methods of estimation (one with adjustment for temperature and RH before the regression against pollutants, the other with adjustment for temperature and RH within the regression against pollutants), were 19.2 days (95% CI, 12.5 to 25.9) and 31.4 days (95% CI, 25.6 to 37.2) for PM10; and 19.7 days (95% CI, 15.2 to 24.2) and 12.8 days (95% CI, 8.9 to 16.8) for SO2. The losses in life expectancy in the current study were smaller than the ones implied by Elliott and colleagues (2007) and Pope and colleagues (2002) as expected since the observation window in our study was only 3 years whereas these other studies had windows of 16 years. In particular, the coefficients used by Elliott and colleagues (2007) for windows of 12 and 16 years were non-zero, which suggests that our window of at most 3 years cannot capture the full life expectancy loss and the effects were most likely underestimated. Using the Poisson regression approach, with a window of 1461 days (4 years), we found that a 10-microg/m3 increase in concentration of PM10 was associated with a change in life expectancy of -69 days (95% CI, -140 to 1) and a change of -133 days (95% CI, -172 to -94) for the same increase in SO2. The effect estimates varied as expected according to most variations in the sensitivity analysis model, specifically in terms of the Core Model definition, exposure windows, constraint of the lag effect pattern, and adjustment for smoking prevalence or socioeconomic status. Our results on the excess risks of mortality showed exposure to chemical species to be a health hazard. However, the statistical power was not sufficient to detect the differences between the pre- and post-intervention periods in Hong Kong due to the data limitations (specifically, the chemical species data were available only once every 6 days, and data were not available from some monitoring stations). Further work is needed to develop methods for maximizing the information from the data in order to assess any changes in effects due to the intervention. With complete daily air pollution and mortality data over a long period, time-series analysis methods can be applied to assess the short- and long-term effects of air pollution, in terms of changes in life expectancy. Further work is warranted to assess the duration and pattern of the health effects from an air pollution pulse (i.e., an episode of a rapid rise in air pollution) so as to determine an appropriate length and constraint on the distributed-lag assessment model.

Invariants for the generalized Lotka-Volterra equations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cairó, Laurent; Feix, Marc R.; Goedert, Joao

A generalisation of Lotka-Volterra System is given when self limiting terms are introduced in the model. We use a modification of the Carleman embedding method to find invariants for this system of equations. The position and stability of the equilibrium point and the regression of system under invariant conditions are studied.

Hybrid ARIMAX quantile regression method for forecasting short term electricity consumption in east java

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prastuti, M.; Suhartono; Salehah, NA

2018-04-01

The need for energy supply, especially for electricity in Indonesia has been increasing in the last past years. Furthermore, the high electricity usage by people at different times leads to the occurrence of heteroscedasticity issue. Estimate the electricity supply that could fulfilled the community’s need is very important, but the heteroscedasticity issue often made electricity forecasting hard to be done. An accurate forecast of electricity consumptions is one of the key challenges for energy provider to make better resources and service planning and also take control actions in order to balance the electricity supply and demand for community. In this paper, hybrid ARIMAX Quantile Regression (ARIMAX-QR) approach was proposed to predict the short-term electricity consumption in East Java. This method will also be compared to time series regression using RMSE, MAPE, and MdAPE criteria. The data used in this research was the electricity consumption per half-an-hour data during the period of September 2015 to April 2016. The results show that the proposed approach can be a competitive alternative to forecast short-term electricity in East Java. ARIMAX-QR using lag values and dummy variables as predictors yield more accurate prediction in both in-sample and out-sample data. Moreover, both time series regression and ARIMAX-QR methods with addition of lag values as predictor could capture accurately the patterns in the data. Hence, it produces better predictions compared to the models that not use additional lag variables.

Personality and psychological distress among older adult, long-term cancer survivors.

PubMed

Deimling, Gary T; Albitz, Casey; Monnin, Kara; Renzhofer Pappada, Holly T; Nalepa, Elizabeth; Boehm, Melinda Laroco; Mitchell, Claire

2017-01-01

This research examines a model of how personality (Five-Factor Model) is related to adjustment to cancer in later life in terms of the presence of continuing cancer-related worry and depression among older adult, long-term cancer survivors. Data from an NCI-funded study with 275 older adult (age 60+), long-term (5+ years) survivors of breast, prostate, and colorectal cancer were examined. Regression analyses identified neuroticism as the strongest predictor of cancer-related worry along with continuing cancer-related symptoms. For depression, three personality dimensions (neuroticism, conscientiousness, and agreeableness) were significant predictors. Findings suggest the importance of considering the central role that survivors' personality characteristics play in understanding cancer-related worries and depression. Understanding these dispositional characteristics is key for social workers and health-care practitioners in counseling survivors experiencing these common mental health effects.

Estimating Information Processing in a Memory System: The Utility of Meta-analytic Methods for Genetics.

PubMed

Yildizoglu, Tugce; Weislogel, Jan-Marek; Mohammad, Farhan; Chan, Edwin S-Y; Assam, Pryseley N; Claridge-Chang, Adam

2015-12-01

Genetic studies in Drosophila reveal that olfactory memory relies on a brain structure called the mushroom body. The mainstream view is that each of the three lobes of the mushroom body play specialized roles in short-term aversive olfactory memory, but a number of studies have made divergent conclusions based on their varying experimental findings. Like many fields, neurogenetics uses null hypothesis significance testing for data analysis. Critics of significance testing claim that this method promotes discrepancies by using arbitrary thresholds (α) to apply reject/accept dichotomies to continuous data, which is not reflective of the biological reality of quantitative phenotypes. We explored using estimation statistics, an alternative data analysis framework, to examine published fly short-term memory data. Systematic review was used to identify behavioral experiments examining the physiological basis of olfactory memory and meta-analytic approaches were applied to assess the role of lobular specialization. Multivariate meta-regression models revealed that short-term memory lobular specialization is not supported by the data; it identified the cellular extent of a transgenic driver as the major predictor of its effect on short-term memory. These findings demonstrate that effect sizes, meta-analysis, meta-regression, hierarchical models and estimation methods in general can be successfully harnessed to identify knowledge gaps, synthesize divergent results, accommodate heterogeneous experimental design and quantify genetic mechanisms.

ELASTIC NET FOR COX'S PROPORTIONAL HAZARDS MODEL WITH A SOLUTION PATH ALGORITHM.

PubMed

Wu, Yichao

2012-01-01

For least squares regression, Efron et al. (2004) proposed an efficient solution path algorithm, the least angle regression (LAR). They showed that a slight modification of the LAR leads to the whole LASSO solution path. Both the LAR and LASSO solution paths are piecewise linear. Recently Wu (2011) extended the LAR to generalized linear models and the quasi-likelihood method. In this work we extend the LAR further to handle Cox's proportional hazards model. The goal is to develop a solution path algorithm for the elastic net penalty (Zou and Hastie (2005)) in Cox's proportional hazards model. This goal is achieved in two steps. First we extend the LAR to optimizing the log partial likelihood plus a fixed small ridge term. Then we define a path modification, which leads to the solution path of the elastic net regularized log partial likelihood. Our solution path is exact and piecewise determined by ordinary differential equation systems.

Comparing spatially varying coefficient models: a case study examining violent crime rates and their relationships to alcohol outlets and illegal drug arrests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wheeler, David C.; Waller, Lance A.

2009-03-01

In this paper, we compare and contrast a Bayesian spatially varying coefficient process (SVCP) model with a geographically weighted regression (GWR) model for the estimation of the potentially spatially varying regression effects of alcohol outlets and illegal drug activity on violent crime in Houston, Texas. In addition, we focus on the inherent coefficient shrinkage properties of the Bayesian SVCP model as a way to address increased coefficient variance that follows from collinearity in GWR models. We outline the advantages of the Bayesian model in terms of reducing inflated coefficient variance, enhanced model flexibility, and more formal measuring of model uncertainty for prediction. We find spatially varying effects for alcohol outlets and drug violations, but the amount of variation depends on the type of model used. For the Bayesian model, this variation is controllable through the amount of prior influence placed on the variance of the coefficients. For example, the spatial pattern of coefficients is similar for the GWR and Bayesian models when a relatively large prior variance is used in the Bayesian model.

An algebraic method for constructing stable and consistent autoregressive filters

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Harlim, John, E-mail: jharlim@psu.edu; Department of Meteorology, the Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802; Hong, Hoon, E-mail: hong@ncsu.edu

2015-02-15

In this paper, we introduce an algebraic method to construct stable and consistent univariate autoregressive (AR) models of low order for filtering and predicting nonlinear turbulent signals with memory depth. By stable, we refer to the classical stability condition for the AR model. By consistent, we refer to the classical consistency constraints of Adams–Bashforth methods of order-two. One attractive feature of this algebraic method is that the model parameters can be obtained without directly knowing any training data set as opposed to many standard, regression-based parameterization methods. It takes only long-time average statistics as inputs. The proposed method provides amore » discretization time step interval which guarantees the existence of stable and consistent AR model and simultaneously produces the parameters for the AR models. In our numerical examples with two chaotic time series with different characteristics of decaying time scales, we find that the proposed AR models produce significantly more accurate short-term predictive skill and comparable filtering skill relative to the linear regression-based AR models. These encouraging results are robust across wide ranges of discretization times, observation times, and observation noise variances. Finally, we also find that the proposed model produces an improved short-time prediction relative to the linear regression-based AR-models in forecasting a data set that characterizes the variability of the Madden–Julian Oscillation, a dominant tropical atmospheric wave pattern.« less

Multicenter Comparison of Machine Learning Methods and Conventional Regression for Predicting Clinical Deterioration on the Wards.

PubMed

Churpek, Matthew M; Yuen, Trevor C; Winslow, Christopher; Meltzer, David O; Kattan, Michael W; Edelson, Dana P

2016-02-01

Machine learning methods are flexible prediction algorithms that may be more accurate than conventional regression. We compared the accuracy of different techniques for detecting clinical deterioration on the wards in a large, multicenter database. Observational cohort study. Five hospitals, from November 2008 until January 2013. Hospitalized ward patients None Demographic variables, laboratory values, and vital signs were utilized in a discrete-time survival analysis framework to predict the combined outcome of cardiac arrest, intensive care unit transfer, or death. Two logistic regression models (one using linear predictor terms and a second utilizing restricted cubic splines) were compared to several different machine learning methods. The models were derived in the first 60% of the data by date and then validated in the next 40%. For model derivation, each event time window was matched to a non-event window. All models were compared to each other and to the Modified Early Warning score, a commonly cited early warning score, using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). A total of 269,999 patients were admitted, and 424 cardiac arrests, 13,188 intensive care unit transfers, and 2,840 deaths occurred in the study. In the validation dataset, the random forest model was the most accurate model (AUC, 0.80 [95% CI, 0.80-0.80]). The logistic regression model with spline predictors was more accurate than the model utilizing linear predictors (AUC, 0.77 vs 0.74; p < 0.01), and all models were more accurate than the MEWS (AUC, 0.70 [95% CI, 0.70-0.70]). In this multicenter study, we found that several machine learning methods more accurately predicted clinical deterioration than logistic regression. Use of detection algorithms derived from these techniques may result in improved identification of critically ill patients on the wards.

The Role of Hierarchy in Response Surface Modeling of Wind Tunnel Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DeLoach, Richard

2010-01-01

This paper is intended as a tutorial introduction to certain aspects of response surface modeling, for the experimentalist who has started to explore these methods as a means of improving productivity and quality in wind tunnel testing and other aerospace applications. A brief review of the productivity advantages of response surface modeling in aerospace research is followed by a description of the advantages of a common coding scheme that scales and centers independent variables. The benefits of model term reduction are reviewed. A constraint on model term reduction with coded factors is described in some detail, which requires such models to be well-formulated, or hierarchical. Examples illustrate the consequences of ignoring this constraint. The implication for automated regression model reduction procedures is discussed, and some opinions formed from the author s experience are offered on coding, model reduction, and hierarchy.

Temporal trend and climate factors of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome epidemic in Shenyang City, China

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is an important infectious disease caused by different species of hantaviruses. As a rodent-borne disease with a seasonal distribution, external environmental factors including climate factors may play a significant role in its transmission. The city of Shenyang is one of the most seriously endemic areas for HFRS. Here, we characterized the dynamic temporal trend of HFRS, and identified climate-related risk factors and their roles in HFRS transmission in Shenyang, China. Methods The annual and monthly cumulative numbers of HFRS cases from 2004 to 2009 were calculated and plotted to show the annual and seasonal fluctuation in Shenyang. Cross-correlation and autocorrelation analyses were performed to detect the lagged effect of climate factors on HFRS transmission and the autocorrelation of monthly HFRS cases. Principal component analysis was constructed by using climate data from 2004 to 2009 to extract principal components of climate factors to reduce co-linearity. The extracted principal components and autocorrelation terms of monthly HFRS cases were added into a multiple regression model called principal components regression model (PCR) to quantify the relationship between climate factors, autocorrelation terms and transmission of HFRS. The PCR model was compared to a general multiple regression model conducted only with climate factors as independent variables. Results A distinctly declining temporal trend of annual HFRS incidence was identified. HFRS cases were reported every month, and the two peak periods occurred in spring (March to May) and winter (November to January), during which, nearly 75% of the HFRS cases were reported. Three principal components were extracted with a cumulative contribution rate of 86.06%. Component 1 represented MinRH0, MT1, RH1, and MWV1; component 2 represented RH2, MaxT3, and MAP3; and component 3 represented MaxT2, MAP2, and MWV2. The PCR model was composed of three principal components and two autocorrelation terms. The association between HFRS epidemics and climate factors was better explained in the PCR model (F = 446.452, P < 0.001, adjusted R2 = 0.75) than in the general multiple regression model (F = 223.670, P < 0.000, adjusted R2 = 0.51). Conclusion The temporal distribution of HFRS in Shenyang varied in different years with a distinctly declining trend. The monthly trends of HFRS were significantly associated with local temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, air pressure, and wind velocity of the different previous months. The model conducted in this study will make HFRS surveillance simpler and the control of HFRS more targeted in Shenyang. PMID:22133347

Gaussian process regression for forecasting battery state of health

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richardson, Robert R.; Osborne, Michael A.; Howey, David A.

2017-07-01

Accurately predicting the future capacity and remaining useful life of batteries is necessary to ensure reliable system operation and to minimise maintenance costs. The complex nature of battery degradation has meant that mechanistic modelling of capacity fade has thus far remained intractable; however, with the advent of cloud-connected devices, data from cells in various applications is becoming increasingly available, and the feasibility of data-driven methods for battery prognostics is increasing. Here we propose Gaussian process (GP) regression for forecasting battery state of health, and highlight various advantages of GPs over other data-driven and mechanistic approaches. GPs are a type of Bayesian non-parametric method, and hence can model complex systems whilst handling uncertainty in a principled manner. Prior information can be exploited by GPs in a variety of ways: explicit mean functions can be used if the functional form of the underlying degradation model is available, and multiple-output GPs can effectively exploit correlations between data from different cells. We demonstrate the predictive capability of GPs for short-term and long-term (remaining useful life) forecasting on a selection of capacity vs. cycle datasets from lithium-ion cells.

Study of cyanotoxins presence from experimental cyanobacteria concentrations using a new data mining methodology based on multivariate adaptive regression splines in Trasona reservoir (Northern Spain).

PubMed

Garcia Nieto, P J; Sánchez Lasheras, F; de Cos Juez, F J; Alonso Fernández, J R

2011-11-15

There is an increasing need to describe cyanobacteria blooms since some cyanobacteria produce toxins, termed cyanotoxins. These latter can be toxic and dangerous to humans as well as other animals and life in general. It must be remarked that the cyanobacteria are reproduced explosively under certain conditions. This results in algae blooms, which can become harmful to other species if the cyanobacteria involved produce cyanotoxins. In this research work, the evolution of cyanotoxins in Trasona reservoir (Principality of Asturias, Northern Spain) was studied with success using the data mining methodology based on multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) technique. The results of the present study are two-fold. On one hand, the importance of the different kind of cyanobacteria over the presence of cyanotoxins in the reservoir is presented through the MARS model and on the other hand a predictive model able to forecast the possible presence of cyanotoxins in a short term was obtained. The agreement of the MARS model with experimental data confirmed the good performance of the same one. Finally, conclusions of this innovative research are exposed. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Temporally-Constrained Group Sparse Learning for Longitudinal Data Analysis in Alzheimer’s Disease

PubMed Central

Jie, Biao; Liu, Mingxia; Liu, Jun

2016-01-01

Sparse learning has been widely investigated for analysis of brain images to assist the diagnosis of Alzheimer’s disease (AD) and its prodromal stage, i.e., mild cognitive impairment (MCI). However, most existing sparse learning-based studies only adopt cross-sectional analysis methods, where the sparse model is learned using data from a single time-point. Actually, multiple time-points of data are often available in brain imaging applications, which can be used in some longitudinal analysis methods to better uncover the disease progression patterns. Accordingly, in this paper we propose a novel temporally-constrained group sparse learning method aiming for longitudinal analysis with multiple time-points of data. Specifically, we learn a sparse linear regression model by using the imaging data from multiple time-points, where a group regularization term is first employed to group the weights for the same brain region across different time-points together. Furthermore, to reflect the smooth changes between data derived from adjacent time-points, we incorporate two smoothness regularization terms into the objective function, i.e., one fused smoothness term which requires that the differences between two successive weight vectors from adjacent time-points should be small, and another output smoothness term which requires the differences between outputs of two successive models from adjacent time-points should also be small. We develop an efficient optimization algorithm to solve the proposed objective function. Experimental results on ADNI database demonstrate that, compared with conventional sparse learning-based methods, our proposed method can achieve improved regression performance and also help in discovering disease-related biomarkers. PMID:27093313

Short-term Forecasting of the Prevalence of Trachoma: Expert Opinion, Statistical Regression, versus Transmission Models

PubMed Central

Liu, Fengchen; Porco, Travis C.; Amza, Abdou; Kadri, Boubacar; Nassirou, Baido; West, Sheila K.; Bailey, Robin L.; Keenan, Jeremy D.; Solomon, Anthony W.; Emerson, Paul M.; Gambhir, Manoj; Lietman, Thomas M.

2015-01-01

Background Trachoma programs rely on guidelines made in large part using expert opinion of what will happen with and without intervention. Large community-randomized trials offer an opportunity to actually compare forecasting methods in a masked fashion. Methods The Program for the Rapid Elimination of Trachoma trials estimated longitudinal prevalence of ocular chlamydial infection from 24 communities treated annually with mass azithromycin. Given antibiotic coverage and biannual assessments from baseline through 30 months, forecasts of the prevalence of infection in each of the 24 communities at 36 months were made by three methods: the sum of 15 experts’ opinion, statistical regression of the square-root-transformed prevalence, and a stochastic hidden Markov model of infection transmission (Susceptible-Infectious-Susceptible, or SIS model). All forecasters were masked to the 36-month results and to the other forecasts. Forecasts of the 24 communities were scored by the likelihood of the observed results and compared using Wilcoxon’s signed-rank statistic. Findings Regression and SIS hidden Markov models had significantly better likelihood than community expert opinion (p = 0.004 and p = 0.01, respectively). All forecasts scored better when perturbed to decrease Fisher’s information. Each individual expert’s forecast was poorer than the sum of experts. Interpretation Regression and SIS models performed significantly better than expert opinion, although all forecasts were overly confident. Further model refinements may score better, although would need to be tested and compared in new masked studies. Construction of guidelines that rely on forecasting future prevalence could consider use of mathematical and statistical models. PMID:26302380

Short-term Forecasting of the Prevalence of Trachoma: Expert Opinion, Statistical Regression, versus Transmission Models.

PubMed

Liu, Fengchen; Porco, Travis C; Amza, Abdou; Kadri, Boubacar; Nassirou, Baido; West, Sheila K; Bailey, Robin L; Keenan, Jeremy D; Solomon, Anthony W; Emerson, Paul M; Gambhir, Manoj; Lietman, Thomas M

2015-08-01

Trachoma programs rely on guidelines made in large part using expert opinion of what will happen with and without intervention. Large community-randomized trials offer an opportunity to actually compare forecasting methods in a masked fashion. The Program for the Rapid Elimination of Trachoma trials estimated longitudinal prevalence of ocular chlamydial infection from 24 communities treated annually with mass azithromycin. Given antibiotic coverage and biannual assessments from baseline through 30 months, forecasts of the prevalence of infection in each of the 24 communities at 36 months were made by three methods: the sum of 15 experts' opinion, statistical regression of the square-root-transformed prevalence, and a stochastic hidden Markov model of infection transmission (Susceptible-Infectious-Susceptible, or SIS model). All forecasters were masked to the 36-month results and to the other forecasts. Forecasts of the 24 communities were scored by the likelihood of the observed results and compared using Wilcoxon's signed-rank statistic. Regression and SIS hidden Markov models had significantly better likelihood than community expert opinion (p = 0.004 and p = 0.01, respectively). All forecasts scored better when perturbed to decrease Fisher's information. Each individual expert's forecast was poorer than the sum of experts. Regression and SIS models performed significantly better than expert opinion, although all forecasts were overly confident. Further model refinements may score better, although would need to be tested and compared in new masked studies. Construction of guidelines that rely on forecasting future prevalence could consider use of mathematical and statistical models. Clinicaltrials.gov NCT00792922.

The Colorectal Cancer Mortality-to-Incidence Ratio as an Indicator of Global Cancer Screening and Care

PubMed Central

Sunkara, Vasu; Hébert, James R.

2015-01-01

BACKGROUND Disparities in cancer screening, incidence, treatment, and survival are worsening globally. The mortality-to-incidence ratio (MIR) has been used previously to evaluate such disparities. METHODS The MIR for colorectal cancer is calculated for all Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries using the 2012 GLOBOCAN incidence and mortality statistics. Health system rankings were obtained from the World Health Organization. Two linear regression models were fit with the MIR as the dependent variable and health system ranking as the independent variable; one included all countries and one model had the “divergents” removed. RESULTS The regression model for all countries explained 24% of the total variance in the MIR. Nine countries were found to have regression-calculated MIRs that differed from the actual MIR by >20%. Countries with lower-than-expected MIRs were found to have strong national health systems characterized by formal colorectal cancer screening programs. Conversely, countries with higher-than-expected MIRs lack screening programs. When these divergent points were removed from the data set, the recalculated regression model explained 60% of the total variance in the MIR. CONCLUSIONS The MIR proved useful for identifying disparities in cancer screening and treatment internationally. It has potential as an indicator of the long-term success of cancer surveillance programs and may be extended to other cancer types for these purposes. PMID:25572676

The colorectal cancer mortality-to-incidence ratio as an indicator of global cancer screening and care.

PubMed

Sunkara, Vasu; Hébert, James R

2015-05-15

Disparities in cancer screening, incidence, treatment, and survival are worsening globally. The mortality-to-incidence ratio (MIR) has been used previously to evaluate such disparities. The MIR for colorectal cancer is calculated for all Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries using the 2012 GLOBOCAN incidence and mortality statistics. Health system rankings were obtained from the World Health Organization. Two linear regression models were fit with the MIR as the dependent variable and health system ranking as the independent variable; one included all countries and one model had the "divergents" removed. The regression model for all countries explained 24% of the total variance in the MIR. Nine countries were found to have regression-calculated MIRs that differed from the actual MIR by >20%. Countries with lower-than-expected MIRs were found to have strong national health systems characterized by formal colorectal cancer screening programs. Conversely, countries with higher-than-expected MIRs lack screening programs. When these divergent points were removed from the data set, the recalculated regression model explained 60% of the total variance in the MIR. The MIR proved useful for identifying disparities in cancer screening and treatment internationally. It has potential as an indicator of the long-term success of cancer surveillance programs and may be extended to other cancer types for these purposes. © 2015 American Cancer Society.

Epidemiological characteristics of reported sporadic and outbreak cases of E. coli O157 in people from Alberta, Canada (2000-2002): methodological challenges of comparing clustered to unclustered data.

PubMed

Pearl, D L; Louie, M; Chui, L; Doré, K; Grimsrud, K M; Martin, S W; Michel, P; Svenson, L W; McEwen, S A

2008-04-01

Using multivariable models, we compared whether there were significant differences between reported outbreak and sporadic cases in terms of their sex, age, and mode and site of disease transmission. We also determined the potential role of administrative, temporal, and spatial factors within these models. We compared a variety of approaches to account for clustering of cases in outbreaks including weighted logistic regression, random effects models, general estimating equations, robust variance estimates, and the random selection of one case from each outbreak. Age and mode of transmission were the only epidemiologically and statistically significant covariates in our final models using the above approaches. Weighing observations in a logistic regression model by the inverse of their outbreak size appeared to be a relatively robust and valid means for modelling these data. Some analytical techniques, designed to account for clustering, had difficulty converging or producing realistic measures of association.

Using Data Mining for Wine Quality Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cortez, Paulo; Teixeira, Juliana; Cerdeira, António; Almeida, Fernando; Matos, Telmo; Reis, José

Certification and quality assessment are crucial issues within the wine industry. Currently, wine quality is mostly assessed by physicochemical (e.g alcohol levels) and sensory (e.g. human expert evaluation) tests. In this paper, we propose a data mining approach to predict wine preferences that is based on easily available analytical tests at the certification step. A large dataset is considered with white vinho verde samples from the Minho region of Portugal. Wine quality is modeled under a regression approach, which preserves the order of the grades. Explanatory knowledge is given in terms of a sensitivity analysis, which measures the response changes when a given input variable is varied through its domain. Three regression techniques were applied, under a computationally efficient procedure that performs simultaneous variable and model selection and that is guided by the sensitivity analysis. The support vector machine achieved promising results, outperforming the multiple regression and neural network methods. Such model is useful for understanding how physicochemical tests affect the sensory preferences. Moreover, it can support the wine expert evaluations and ultimately improve the production.

Hybrid modelling based on support vector regression with genetic algorithms in forecasting the cyanotoxins presence in the Trasona reservoir (Northern Spain).

PubMed

García Nieto, P J; Alonso Fernández, J R; de Cos Juez, F J; Sánchez Lasheras, F; Díaz Muñiz, C

2013-04-01

Cyanotoxins, a kind of poisonous substances produced by cyanobacteria, are responsible for health risks in drinking and recreational waters. As a result, anticipate its presence is a matter of importance to prevent risks. The aim of this study is to use a hybrid approach based on support vector regression (SVR) in combination with genetic algorithms (GAs), known as a genetic algorithm support vector regression (GA-SVR) model, in forecasting the cyanotoxins presence in the Trasona reservoir (Northern Spain). The GA-SVR approach is aimed at highly nonlinear biological problems with sharp peaks and the tests carried out proved its high performance. Some physical-chemical parameters have been considered along with the biological ones. The results obtained are two-fold. In the first place, the significance of each biological and physical-chemical variable on the cyanotoxins presence in the reservoir is determined with success. Finally, a predictive model able to forecast the possible presence of cyanotoxins in a short term was obtained. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Quantifying the causal effects of 20mph zones on road casualties in London via doubly robust estimation.

PubMed

Li, Haojie; Graham, Daniel J

2016-08-01

This paper estimates the causal effect of 20mph zones on road casualties in London. Potential confounders in the key relationship of interest are included within outcome regression and propensity score models, and the models are then combined to form a doubly robust estimator. A total of 234 treated zones and 2844 potential control zones are included in the data sample. The propensity score model is used to select a viable control group which has common support in the covariate distributions. We compare the doubly robust estimates with those obtained using three other methods: inverse probability weighting, regression adjustment, and propensity score matching. The results indicate that 20mph zones have had a significant causal impact on road casualty reduction in both absolute and proportional terms. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Blood glucose level prediction based on support vector regression using mobile platforms.

PubMed

Reymann, Maximilian P; Dorschky, Eva; Groh, Benjamin H; Martindale, Christine; Blank, Peter; Eskofier, Bjoern M

2016-08-01

The correct treatment of diabetes is vital to a patient's health: Staying within defined blood glucose levels prevents dangerous short- and long-term effects on the body. Mobile devices informing patients about their future blood glucose levels could enable them to take counter-measures to prevent hypo or hyper periods. Previous work addressed this challenge by predicting the blood glucose levels using regression models. However, these approaches required a physiological model, representing the human body's response to insulin and glucose intake, or are not directly applicable to mobile platforms (smart phones, tablets). In this paper, we propose an algorithm for mobile platforms to predict blood glucose levels without the need for a physiological model. Using an online software simulator program, we trained a Support Vector Regression (SVR) model and exported the parameter settings to our mobile platform. The prediction accuracy of our mobile platform was evaluated with pre-recorded data of a type 1 diabetes patient. The blood glucose level was predicted with an error of 19 % compared to the true value. Considering the permitted error of commercially used devices of 15 %, our algorithm is the basis for further development of mobile prediction algorithms.

Adaptation of a Weighted Regression Approach to Evaluate Water Quality Trends in an Estuary

EPA Science Inventory

To improve the description of long-term changes in water quality, we adapted a weighted regression approach to analyze a long-term water quality dataset from Tampa Bay, Florida. The weighted regression approach, originally developed to resolve pollutant transport trends in rivers...

Adaptation of a weighted regression approach to evaluate water quality trends in anestuary

EPA Science Inventory

To improve the description of long-term changes in water quality, a weighted regression approach developed to describe trends in pollutant transport in rivers was adapted to analyze a long-term water quality dataset from Tampa Bay, Florida. The weighted regression approach allows...

Improving riverine constituent concentration and flux estimation by accounting for antecedent discharge conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Qian; Ball, William P.

2017-04-01

Regression-based approaches are often employed to estimate riverine constituent concentrations and fluxes based on typically sparse concentration observations. One such approach is the recently developed WRTDS ("Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season") method, which has been shown to provide more accurate estimates than prior approaches in a wide range of applications. Centered on WRTDS, this work was aimed at developing improved models for constituent concentration and flux estimation by accounting for antecedent discharge conditions. Twelve modified models were developed and tested, each of which contains one additional flow variable to represent antecedent conditions and which can be directly derived from the daily discharge record. High-resolution (∼daily) data at nine diverse monitoring sites were used to evaluate the relative merits of the models for estimation of six constituents - chloride (Cl), nitrate-plus-nitrite (NOx), total Kjeldahl nitrogen (TKN), total phosphorus (TP), soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP), and suspended sediment (SS). For each site-constituent combination, 30 concentration subsets were generated from the original data through Monte Carlo subsampling and then used to evaluate model performance. For the subsampling, three sampling strategies were adopted: (A) 1 random sample each month (12/year), (B) 12 random monthly samples plus additional 8 random samples per year (20/year), and (C) flow-stratified sampling with 12 regular (non-storm) and 8 storm samples per year (20/year). Results reveal that estimation performance varies with both model choice and sampling strategy. In terms of model choice, the modified models show general improvement over the original model under all three sampling strategies. Major improvements were achieved for NOx by the long-term flow-anomaly model and for Cl by the ADF (average discounted flow) model and the short-term flow-anomaly model. Moderate improvements were achieved for SS, TP, and TKN by the ADF model. By contrast, no such achievement was achieved for SRP by any proposed model. In terms of sampling strategy, performance of all models (including the original) was generally best using strategy C and worst using strategy A, and especially so for SS, TP, and SRP, confirming the value of routinely collecting stormflow samples. Overall, this work provides a comprehensive set of statistical evidence for supporting the incorporation of antecedent discharge conditions into the WRTDS model for estimation of constituent concentration and flux, thereby combining the advantages of two recent developments in water quality modeling.

Air Pollution and Lung Function in Dutch Children: A Comparison of Exposure Estimates and Associations Based on Land Use Regression and Dispersion Exposure Modeling Approaches

PubMed Central

Gehring, Ulrike; Hoek, Gerard; Keuken, Menno; Jonkers, Sander; Beelen, Rob; Eeftens, Marloes; Postma, Dirkje S.; Brunekreef, Bert

2015-01-01

Background There is limited knowledge about the extent to which estimates of air pollution effects on health are affected by the choice for a specific exposure model. Objectives We aimed to evaluate the correlation between long-term air pollution exposure estimates using two commonly used exposure modeling techniques [dispersion and land use regression (LUR) models] and, in addition, to compare the estimates of the association between long-term exposure to air pollution and lung function in children using these exposure modeling techniques. Methods We used data of 1,058 participants of a Dutch birth cohort study with measured forced expiratory volume in 1 sec (FEV1), forced vital capacity (FVC), and peak expiratory flow (PEF) measurements at 8 years of age. For each child, annual average outdoor air pollution exposure [nitrogen dioxide (NO2), mass concentration of particulate matter with diameters ≤ 2.5 and ≤ 10 μm (PM2.5, PM10), and PM2.5 soot] was estimated for the current addresses of the participants by a dispersion and a LUR model. Associations between exposures to air pollution and lung function parameters were estimated using linear regression analysis with confounder adjustment. Results Correlations between LUR- and dispersion-modeled pollution concentrations were high for NO2, PM2.5, and PM2.5 soot (R = 0.86–0.90) but low for PM10 (R = 0.57). Associations with lung function were similar for air pollutant exposures estimated using LUR and dispersion modeling, except for associations of PM2.5 with FEV1 and FVC, which were stronger but less precise for exposures based on LUR compared with dispersion model. Conclusions Predictions from LUR and dispersion models correlated very well for PM2.5, NO2, and PM2.5 soot but not for PM10. Health effect estimates did not depend on the type of model used to estimate exposure in a population of Dutch children. Citation Wang M, Gehring U, Hoek G, Keuken M, Jonkers S, Beelen R, Eeftens M, Postma DS, Brunekreef B. 2015. Air pollution and lung function in Dutch children: a comparison of exposure estimates and associations based on land use regression and dispersion exposure modeling approaches. Environ Health Perspect 123:847–851; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1408541 PMID:25839747

Development of a drought forecasting model for the Asia-Pacific region using remote sensing and climate data: Focusing on Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rhee, Jinyoung; Kim, Gayoung; Im, Jungho

2017-04-01

Three regions of Indonesia with different rainfall characteristics were chosen to develop drought forecast models based on machine learning. The 6-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI6) was selected as the target variable. The models' forecast skill was compared to the skill of long-range climate forecast models in terms of drought accuracy and regression mean absolute error (MAE). Indonesian droughts are known to be related to El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability despite of regional differences as well as monsoon, local sea surface temperature (SST), other large-scale atmosphere-ocean interactions such as Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and Southern Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ), and local factors including topography and elevation. Machine learning models are thus to enhance drought forecast skill by combining local and remote SST and remote sensing information reflecting initial drought conditions to the long-range climate forecast model results. A total of 126 machine learning models were developed for the three regions of West Java (JB), West Sumatra (SB), and Gorontalo (GO) and six long-range climate forecast models of MSC_CanCM3, MSC_CanCM4, NCEP, NASA, PNU, POAMA as well as one climatology model based on remote sensing precipitation data, and 1 to 6-month lead times. When compared the results between the machine learning models and the long-range climate forecast models, West Java and Gorontalo regions showed similar characteristics in terms of drought accuracy. Drought accuracy of the long-range climate forecast models were generally higher than the machine learning models with short lead times but the opposite appeared for longer lead times. For West Sumatra, however, the machine learning models and the long-range climate forecast models showed similar drought accuracy. The machine learning models showed smaller regression errors for all three regions especially with longer lead times. Among the three regions, the machine learning models developed for Gorontalo showed the highest drought accuracy and the lowest regression error. West Java showed higher drought accuracy compared to West Sumatra, while West Sumatra showed lower regression error compared to West Java. The lower error in West Sumatra may be because of the smaller sample size used for training and evaluation for the region. Regional differences of forecast skill are determined by the effect of ENSO and the following forecast skill of the long-range climate forecast models. While shown somewhat high in West Sumatra, relative importance of remote sensing variables was mostly low in most cases. High importance of the variables based on long-range climate forecast models indicates that the forecast skill of the machine learning models are mostly determined by the forecast skill of the climate models.

A short-term and high-resolution distribution system load forecasting approach using support vector regression with hybrid parameters optimization

DOE PAGES

Jiang, Huaiguang; Zhang, Yingchen; Muljadi, Eduard; ...

2016-01-01

This paper proposes an approach for distribution system load forecasting, which aims to provide highly accurate short-term load forecasting with high resolution utilizing a support vector regression (SVR) based forecaster and a two-step hybrid parameters optimization method. Specifically, because the load profiles in distribution systems contain abrupt deviations, a data normalization is designed as the pretreatment for the collected historical load data. Then an SVR model is trained by the load data to forecast the future load. For better performance of SVR, a two-step hybrid optimization algorithm is proposed to determine the best parameters. In the first step of themore » hybrid optimization algorithm, a designed grid traverse algorithm (GTA) is used to narrow the parameters searching area from a global to local space. In the second step, based on the result of the GTA, particle swarm optimization (PSO) is used to determine the best parameters in the local parameter space. After the best parameters are determined, the SVR model is used to forecast the short-term load deviation in the distribution system. The performance of the proposed approach is compared to some classic methods in later sections of the paper.« less

Estimation of Fine Particulate Matter in Taipei Using Landuse Regression and Bayesian Maximum Entropy Methods

PubMed Central

Yu, Hwa-Lung; Wang, Chih-Hsih; Liu, Ming-Che; Kuo, Yi-Ming

2011-01-01

Fine airborne particulate matter (PM2.5) has adverse effects on human health. Assessing the long-term effects of PM2.5 exposure on human health and ecology is often limited by a lack of reliable PM2.5 measurements. In Taipei, PM2.5 levels were not systematically measured until August, 2005. Due to the popularity of geographic information systems (GIS), the landuse regression method has been widely used in the spatial estimation of PM concentrations. This method accounts for the potential contributing factors of the local environment, such as traffic volume. Geostatistical methods, on other hand, account for the spatiotemporal dependence among the observations of ambient pollutants. This study assesses the performance of the landuse regression model for the spatiotemporal estimation of PM2.5 in the Taipei area. Specifically, this study integrates the landuse regression model with the geostatistical approach within the framework of the Bayesian maximum entropy (BME) method. The resulting epistemic framework can assimilate knowledge bases including: (a) empirical-based spatial trends of PM concentration based on landuse regression, (b) the spatio-temporal dependence among PM observation information, and (c) site-specific PM observations. The proposed approach performs the spatiotemporal estimation of PM2.5 levels in the Taipei area (Taiwan) from 2005–2007. PMID:21776223

Estimation of fine particulate matter in Taipei using landuse regression and bayesian maximum entropy methods.

PubMed

Yu, Hwa-Lung; Wang, Chih-Hsih; Liu, Ming-Che; Kuo, Yi-Ming

2011-06-01

Fine airborne particulate matter (PM2.5) has adverse effects on human health. Assessing the long-term effects of PM2.5 exposure on human health and ecology is often limited by a lack of reliable PM2.5 measurements. In Taipei, PM2.5 levels were not systematically measured until August, 2005. Due to the popularity of geographic information systems (GIS), the landuse regression method has been widely used in the spatial estimation of PM concentrations. This method accounts for the potential contributing factors of the local environment, such as traffic volume. Geostatistical methods, on other hand, account for the spatiotemporal dependence among the observations of ambient pollutants. This study assesses the performance of the landuse regression model for the spatiotemporal estimation of PM2.5 in the Taipei area. Specifically, this study integrates the landuse regression model with the geostatistical approach within the framework of the Bayesian maximum entropy (BME) method. The resulting epistemic framework can assimilate knowledge bases including: (a) empirical-based spatial trends of PM concentration based on landuse regression, (b) the spatio-temporal dependence among PM observation information, and (c) site-specific PM observations. The proposed approach performs the spatiotemporal estimation of PM2.5 levels in the Taipei area (Taiwan) from 2005-2007.

A Modified LS+AR Model to Improve the Accuracy of the Short-term Polar Motion Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Z. W.; Wang, Q. X.; Ding, Y. Q.; Zhang, J. J.; Liu, S. S.

2017-03-01

There are two problems of the LS (Least Squares)+AR (AutoRegressive) model in polar motion forecast: the inner residual value of LS fitting is reasonable, but the residual value of LS extrapolation is poor; and the LS fitting residual sequence is non-linear. It is unsuitable to establish an AR model for the residual sequence to be forecasted, based on the residual sequence before forecast epoch. In this paper, we make solution to those two problems with two steps. First, restrictions are added to the two endpoints of LS fitting data to fix them on the LS fitting curve. Therefore, the fitting values next to the two endpoints are very close to the observation values. Secondly, we select the interpolation residual sequence of an inward LS fitting curve, which has a similar variation trend as the LS extrapolation residual sequence, as the modeling object of AR for the residual forecast. Calculation examples show that this solution can effectively improve the short-term polar motion prediction accuracy by the LS+AR model. In addition, the comparison results of the forecast models of RLS (Robustified Least Squares)+AR, RLS+ARIMA (AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average), and LS+ANN (Artificial Neural Network) confirm the feasibility and effectiveness of the solution for the polar motion forecast. The results, especially for the polar motion forecast in the 1-10 days, show that the forecast accuracy of the proposed model can reach the world level.

Burning rate for steel-cased, pressed binderless HMX

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fifer, R. A.; Cole, J. E.

1980-01-01

The burning behavior of pressed binderless HMX laterally confined in 6.4 mm i.d. steel cases was measured over the pressure range 1.45 to 338 MPa in a constant pressure strand burner. The measured regression rates are compared to those reported previously for unconfined samples. It is shown that lateral confinement results in a several-fold decrease in the regression rate for the coarse particle size HMX above the transition to super fast regression. For class E samples, confinement shifts the transition to super fast regression from low pressure to high pressure. These results are interpreted in terms of the previously proposed progressive deconsolidation mechanism. Preliminary holographic photography and closed bomb tests are also described. Theoretical one dimensional modeling calculations were carried out to predict the expected flame height (particle burn out distance) as a function of particle size and pressure for binderless HMX burning by a progressive deconsolidation mechanism.

Prediction of different ovarian responses using anti-Müllerian hormone following a long agonist treatment protocol for IVF.

PubMed

Heidar, Z; Bakhtiyari, M; Mirzamoradi, M; Zadehmodarres, S; Sarfjoo, F S; Mansournia, M A

2015-09-01

The purpose of this study was to predict the poor and excessive ovarian response using anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) levels following a long agonist protocol in IVF candidates. Through a prospective cohort study, the type of relationship and appropriate scale for AMH were determined using the fractional polynomial regression. To determine the effect of AMH on the outcomes of ovarian stimulation and different ovarian responses, the multi-nominal and negative binomial regression models were fitted using backward stepwise method. The ovarian response of study subject who entered a standard long-term treatment cycle with GnRH agonist was evaluated using prediction model, separately and in combined models with (ROC) curves. The use of standard long-term treatments with GnRH agonist led to positive pregnancy test results in 30% of treated patients. With each unit increase in the log of AMH, the odds ratio of having poor response compared to normal response decreases by 64% (OR 0.36, 95% CI 0.19-0.68). Also the results of negative binomial regression model indicated that for one unit increase in the log of AMH blood levels, the odds of releasing an oocyte increased 24% (OR 1.24, 95% CI 1.14-1.35). The optimal cut-off points of AMH for predicting excessive and poor ovarian responses were 3.4 and 1.2 ng/ml, respectively, with area under curves of 0.69 (0.60-0.77) and 0.76 (0.66-0.86), respectively. By considering the age of the patient undergoing infertility treatment as a variable affecting ovulation, use of AMH levels showed to be a good test to discriminate between different ovarian responses.

Forecasting daily patient volumes in the emergency department.

PubMed

Jones, Spencer S; Thomas, Alun; Evans, R Scott; Welch, Shari J; Haug, Peter J; Snow, Gregory L

2008-02-01

Shifts in the supply of and demand for emergency department (ED) resources make the efficient allocation of ED resources increasingly important. Forecasting is a vital activity that guides decision-making in many areas of economic, industrial, and scientific planning, but has gained little traction in the health care industry. There are few studies that explore the use of forecasting methods to predict patient volumes in the ED. The goals of this study are to explore and evaluate the use of several statistical forecasting methods to predict daily ED patient volumes at three diverse hospital EDs and to compare the accuracy of these methods to the accuracy of a previously proposed forecasting method. Daily patient arrivals at three hospital EDs were collected for the period January 1, 2005, through March 31, 2007. The authors evaluated the use of seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average, time series regression, exponential smoothing, and artificial neural network models to forecast daily patient volumes at each facility. Forecasts were made for horizons ranging from 1 to 30 days in advance. The forecast accuracy achieved by the various forecasting methods was compared to the forecast accuracy achieved when using a benchmark forecasting method already available in the emergency medicine literature. All time series methods considered in this analysis provided improved in-sample model goodness of fit. However, post-sample analysis revealed that time series regression models that augment linear regression models by accounting for serial autocorrelation offered only small improvements in terms of post-sample forecast accuracy, relative to multiple linear regression models, while seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average, exponential smoothing, and artificial neural network forecasting models did not provide consistently accurate forecasts of daily ED volumes. This study confirms the widely held belief that daily demand for ED services is characterized by seasonal and weekly patterns. The authors compared several time series forecasting methods to a benchmark multiple linear regression model. The results suggest that the existing methodology proposed in the literature, multiple linear regression based on calendar variables, is a reasonable approach to forecasting daily patient volumes in the ED. However, the authors conclude that regression-based models that incorporate calendar variables, account for site-specific special-day effects, and allow for residual autocorrelation provide a more appropriate, informative, and consistently accurate approach to forecasting daily ED patient volumes.

The Impact of School Community Partnerships on the Success of Elementary Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Grady, Kevin Richard

2010-01-01

This study employed multiple regression modeling to examine the success of 63 California elementary schools in terms of (a) school-community social capital, (b) student academic performance, (c) student behavioral incident rate, and (d) teacher turnover rate with respect to the extent of school-community partnership programs. Also of interest to…

Which Peers Matter: How Social Ties Affect Peer-Group Effects

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Poldin, Oleg; Valeeva, Diliara; Yudkevich, Maria

2016-01-01

We study how the achievements of university students are influenced by the characteristics and achievements of peers in individuals' social networks. Defining peer group in terms of friendship and study partner ties enables us to apply a network regression model and thereby disentangle the influence of peers' performance from that of peers'…

[Integral assessment of learning subjects difficulties].

PubMed

Grebniak, N P; Shchudro, S A

2010-01-01

The integral criterion for subject difficulties in senior classes is substantiated in terms of progress in studies, variation coefficient, and subjective and expert appraisals of the difficulty of subjects. The compiled regression models adequately determine the difficulty of academic subjects. According to the root-mean-square deviation, all subjects were found to have 3 degrees of difficulty.

Differences in Health Determinants between International and Domestic Students at a German.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kramer, Alexander; Prufer-Kramer, Luise; Stock, Christiane; Tshiananga, Jacques Tshiang

2004-01-01

The authors used a standardized questionnaire to survey 201 international and 193 German students at the University of Bielefeld, Germany, to determine differences in health practices between the 2 groups and to identify targets for health-promoting interventions. Multivariate logistic regression models revealed that long-term female international…

Predictors of Burnout in Community College Faculty: A Regression Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Phronebarger, Andrea L.

2014-01-01

The present study was conducted in an effort to develop a model to predict "burnout" in community college faculty members using the demographic predictors of employment status, teaching load, age, teaching experience and gender. Originally termed by Herbert Freudenberger in 1974, burnout is a phenomenon that has been investigated in a…

Excessive weight loss in exclusively breastfed full-term newborns in a Baby-Friendly Hospital.

PubMed

Mezzacappa, Maria Aparecida; Ferreira, Bruna Gil

2016-09-01

To determine the risk factors for weight loss over 8% in full-term newborns at postpartum discharge from a Baby Friendly Hospital. The cases were selected from a cohort of infants belonging to a previous study. Healthy full-term newborns with birth weight ≥2.000g, who were exclusively breastfed, and excluding twins and those undergoing phototherapy as well as those discharged after 96 hours of life, were included. The analyzed maternal variables were maternal age, parity, ethnicity, type of delivery, maternal diabetes, gender, gestational age and appropriate weight for age. Adjusted multiple and univariate Cox regression analyses were used, considering as significant p<0.05. We studied 414 newborns, of whom 107 (25.8%) had excessive weight loss. Through the univariate regression, risk factors associated with weight loss >8% were caesarean delivery and older maternal age. At the adjusted multiple regression analysis, the model to explain the weight loss was cesarean delivery (relative risk: 2.27 and 95% of confidence interval: 1.54 to 3.35). The independent predictor for weight loss >8% in exclusively breastfed full-term newborns in a Baby-Friendly Hospital was the cesarean delivery. It is possible to reduce the number of cesarean sections to minimize neonatal excessive weight loss and the resulting use of infant formula during the first week of life. Copyright © 2015 Sociedade de Pediatria de São Paulo. Publicado por Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

Job stress models, depressive disorders and work performance of engineers in microelectronics industry.

PubMed

Chen, Sung-Wei; Wang, Po-Chuan; Hsin, Ping-Lung; Oates, Anthony; Sun, I-Wen; Liu, Shen-Ing

2011-01-01

Microelectronic engineers are considered valuable human capital contributing significantly toward economic development, but they may encounter stressful work conditions in the context of a globalized industry. The study aims at identifying risk factors of depressive disorders primarily based on job stress models, the Demand-Control-Support and Effort-Reward Imbalance models, and at evaluating whether depressive disorders impair work performance in microelectronics engineers in Taiwan. The case-control study was conducted among 678 microelectronics engineers, 452 controls and 226 cases with depressive disorders which were defined by a score 17 or more on the Beck Depression Inventory and a psychiatrist's diagnosis. The self-administered questionnaires included the Job Content Questionnaire, Effort-Reward Imbalance Questionnaire, demography, psychosocial factors, health behaviors and work performance. Hierarchical logistic regression was applied to identify risk factors of depressive disorders. Multivariate linear regressions were used to determine factors affecting work performance. By hierarchical logistic regression, risk factors of depressive disorders are high demands, low work social support, high effort/reward ratio and low frequency of physical exercise. Combining the two job stress models may have better predictive power for depressive disorders than adopting either model alone. Three multivariate linear regressions provide similar results indicating that depressive disorders are associated with impaired work performance in terms of absence, role limitation and social functioning limitation. The results may provide insight into the applicability of job stress models in a globalized high-tech industry considerably focused in non-Western countries, and the design of workplace preventive strategies for depressive disorders in Asian electronics engineering population.

Heterogeneity in the Relationship of Substance Use to Risky Sexual Behavior Among Justice-Involved Youth: A Regression Mixture Modeling Approach.

PubMed

Schmiege, Sarah J; Bryan, Angela D

2016-04-01

Justice-involved adolescents engage in high levels of risky sexual behavior and substance use, and understanding potential relationships among these constructs is important for effective HIV/STI prevention. A regression mixture modeling approach was used to determine whether subgroups could be identified based on the regression of two indicators of sexual risk (condom use and frequency of intercourse) on three measures of substance use (alcohol, marijuana and hard drugs). Three classes were observed among n = 596 adolescents on probation: none of the substances predicted outcomes for approximately 18 % of the sample; alcohol and marijuana use were predictive for approximately 59 % of the sample, and marijuana use and hard drug use were predictive in approximately 23 % of the sample. Demographic, individual difference, and additional sexual and substance use risk variables were examined in relation to class membership. Findings are discussed in terms of understanding profiles of risk behavior among at-risk youth.

Introduction to statistical modelling 2: categorical variables and interactions in linear regression.

PubMed

Lunt, Mark

2015-07-01

In the first article in this series we explored the use of linear regression to predict an outcome variable from a number of predictive factors. It assumed that the predictive factors were measured on an interval scale. However, this article shows how categorical variables can also be included in a linear regression model, enabling predictions to be made separately for different groups and allowing for testing the hypothesis that the outcome differs between groups. The use of interaction terms to measure whether the effect of a particular predictor variable differs between groups is also explained. An alternative approach to testing the difference between groups of the effect of a given predictor, which consists of measuring the effect in each group separately and seeing whether the statistical significance differs between the groups, is shown to be misleading. © The Author 2013. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Rheumatology. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Commitment to personal values and guilt feelings in dementia caregivers.

PubMed

Gallego-Alberto, Laura; Losada, Andrés; Márquez-González, María; Romero-Moreno, Rosa; Vara, Carlos

2017-01-01

Caregivers' commitment to personal values is linked to caregivers' well-being, although the effects of personal values on caregivers' guilt have not been explored to date. The goal of this study is to analyze the relationship between caregivers´ commitment to personal values and guilt feelings. Participants were 179 dementia family caregivers. Face-to-face interviews were carried out to describe sociodemographic variables and assess stressors, caregivers' commitment to personal values and guilt feelings. Commitment to values was conceptualized as two factors (commitment to own values and commitment to family values) and 12 specific individual values (e.g. education, family or caregiving role). Hierarchical regressions were performed controlling for sociodemographic variables and stressors, and introducing the two commitment factors (in a first regression) or the commitment to individual/specific values (in a second regression) as predictors of guilt. In terms of the commitment to values factors, the analyzed regression model explained 21% of the variance of guilt feelings. Only the factor commitment to family values contributed significantly to the model, explaining 7% of variance. With regard to the regression analyzing the contribution of specific values to caregivers' guilt, commitment to the caregiving role and with leisure contributed negatively and significantly to the explanation of caregivers' guilt. Commitment to work contributed positively to guilt feelings. The full model explained 30% of guilt feelings variance. The specific values explained 16% of the variance. Our findings suggest that commitment to personal values is a relevant variable to understand guilt feelings in caregivers.

Additive Genetic Variability and the Bayesian Alphabet

PubMed Central

Gianola, Daniel; de los Campos, Gustavo; Hill, William G.; Manfredi, Eduardo; Fernando, Rohan

2009-01-01

The use of all available molecular markers in statistical models for prediction of quantitative traits has led to what could be termed a genomic-assisted selection paradigm in animal and plant breeding. This article provides a critical review of some theoretical and statistical concepts in the context of genomic-assisted genetic evaluation of animals and crops. First, relationships between the (Bayesian) variance of marker effects in some regression models and additive genetic variance are examined under standard assumptions. Second, the connection between marker genotypes and resemblance between relatives is explored, and linkages between a marker-based model and the infinitesimal model are reviewed. Third, issues associated with the use of Bayesian models for marker-assisted selection, with a focus on the role of the priors, are examined from a theoretical angle. The sensitivity of a Bayesian specification that has been proposed (called “Bayes A”) with respect to priors is illustrated with a simulation. Methods that can solve potential shortcomings of some of these Bayesian regression procedures are discussed briefly. PMID:19620397

Forecasting carbon dioxide emissions based on a hybrid of mixed data sampling regression model and back propagation neural network in the USA.

PubMed

Zhao, Xin; Han, Meng; Ding, Lili; Calin, Adrian Cantemir

2018-01-01

The accurate forecast of carbon dioxide emissions is critical for policy makers to take proper measures to establish a low carbon society. This paper discusses a hybrid of the mixed data sampling (MIDAS) regression model and BP (back propagation) neural network (MIDAS-BP model) to forecast carbon dioxide emissions. Such analysis uses mixed frequency data to study the effects of quarterly economic growth on annual carbon dioxide emissions. The forecasting ability of MIDAS-BP is remarkably better than MIDAS, ordinary least square (OLS), polynomial distributed lags (PDL), autoregressive distributed lags (ADL), and auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) models. The MIDAS-BP model is suitable for forecasting carbon dioxide emissions for both the short and longer term. This research is expected to influence the methodology for forecasting carbon dioxide emissions by improving the forecast accuracy. Empirical results show that economic growth has both negative and positive effects on carbon dioxide emissions that last 15 quarters. Carbon dioxide emissions are also affected by their own change within 3 years. Therefore, there is a need for policy makers to explore an alternative way to develop the economy, especially applying new energy policies to establish a low carbon society.

Performance evaluation of ionospheric time delay forecasting models using GPS observations at a low-latitude station

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sivavaraprasad, G.; Venkata Ratnam, D.

2017-07-01

Ionospheric delay is one of the major atmospheric effects on the performance of satellite-based radio navigation systems. It limits the accuracy and availability of Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements, related to critical societal and safety applications. The temporal and spatial gradients of ionospheric total electron content (TEC) are driven by several unknown priori geophysical conditions and solar-terrestrial phenomena. Thereby, the prediction of ionospheric delay is challenging especially over Indian sub-continent. Therefore, an appropriate short/long-term ionospheric delay forecasting model is necessary. Hence, the intent of this paper is to forecast ionospheric delays by considering day to day, monthly and seasonal ionospheric TEC variations. GPS-TEC data (January 2013-December 2013) is extracted from a multi frequency GPS receiver established at K L University, Vaddeswaram, Guntur station (geographic: 16.37°N, 80.37°E; geomagnetic: 7.44°N, 153.75°E), India. An evaluation, in terms of forecasting capabilities, of three ionospheric time delay models - an Auto Regressive Moving Average (ARMA) model, Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model, and a Holt-Winter's model is presented. The performances of these models are evaluated through error measurement analysis during both geomagnetic quiet and disturbed days. It is found that, ARMA model is effectively forecasting the ionospheric delay with an accuracy of 82-94%, which is 10% more superior to ARIMA and Holt-Winter's models. Moreover, the modeled VTEC derived from International Reference Ionosphere, IRI (IRI-2012) model and new global TEC model, Neustrelitz TEC Model (NTCM-GL) have compared with forecasted VTEC values of ARMA, ARIMA and Holt-Winter's models during geomagnetic quiet days. The forecast results are indicating that ARMA model would be useful to set up an early warning system for ionospheric disturbances at low latitude regions.

[The short-term effects of air pollution on mortality. The results of the EMECAM project in the city of Vigo, 1991-94. Estudio Multicéntrico Español sobre la Relación entre la Contaminación Atmosférica y la Mortalidad].

PubMed

Taracido Trunk, M; Figueiras, A; Castro Lareo, I

1999-01-01

In the Autonomous Region of Galicia, no study has been made of the impacts of air pollution on human health, despite the fact that several of its major cities have moderate levels of pollution. Therefore, we have considered the need of making this study in the city of Vigo. The main objective of this analysis is that of analyzing the short-term impact of air pollution on the daily death rate for all reasons in the city of Vigo throughout the 1991-1994 period, by using the procedure for analysis set out as part of the EMECAM Project. The daily fluctuations in the number of deaths for all causes with the exception of the external ones are listed with the daily fluctuations of sulfur dioxide and particles using Poisson regression models. A non-parametric model is also used in order to better control the confusion variables. Using the Poisson regression model, no significant relationships have been found to exist between the pollutants and the death rate. In the non-parametric model, a relationship was found between the concentration of particles on the day immediately prior to the date of death and the death rate, an effect which remains unchanged on including the autoregressive terms. Particle-based air pollution is a health risk despite the average levels of this pollutant falling within the air quality guideline levels in the city of Vigo.

Developing a Referral Protocol for Community-Based Occupational Therapy Services in Taiwan: A Logistic Regression Analysis

PubMed Central

Chang, Ling-Hui; Tsai, Athena Yi-Jung; Huang, Wen-Ni

2016-01-01

Because resources for long-term care services are limited, timely and appropriate referral for rehabilitation services is critical for optimizing clients’ functions and successfully integrating them into the community. We investigated which client characteristics are most relevant in predicting Taiwan’s community-based occupational therapy (OT) service referral based on experts’ beliefs. Data were collected in face-to-face interviews using the Multidimensional Assessment Instrument (MDAI). Community-dwelling participants (n = 221) ≥ 18 years old who reported disabilities in the previous National Survey of Long-term Care Needs in Taiwan were enrolled. The standard for referral was the judgment and agreement of two experienced occupational therapists who reviewed the results of the MDAI. Logistic regressions and Generalized Additive Models were used for analysis. Two predictive models were proposed, one using basic activities of daily living (BADLs) and one using instrumental ADLs (IADLs). Dementia, psychiatric disorders, cognitive impairment, joint range-of-motion limitations, fear of falling, behavioral or emotional problems, expressive deficits (in the BADL-based model), and limitations in IADLs or BADLs were significantly correlated with the need for referral. Both models showed high area under the curve (AUC) values on receiver operating curve testing (AUC = 0.977 and 0.972, respectively). The probability of being referred for community OT services was calculated using the referral algorithm. The referral protocol facilitated communication between healthcare professionals to make appropriate decisions for OT referrals. The methods and findings should be useful for developing referral protocols for other long-term care services. PMID:26863544

Developing a Referral Protocol for Community-Based Occupational Therapy Services in Taiwan: A Logistic Regression Analysis.

PubMed

Mao, Hui-Fen; Chang, Ling-Hui; Tsai, Athena Yi-Jung; Huang, Wen-Ni; Wang, Jye

2016-01-01

Because resources for long-term care services are limited, timely and appropriate referral for rehabilitation services is critical for optimizing clients' functions and successfully integrating them into the community. We investigated which client characteristics are most relevant in predicting Taiwan's community-based occupational therapy (OT) service referral based on experts' beliefs. Data were collected in face-to-face interviews using the Multidimensional Assessment Instrument (MDAI). Community-dwelling participants (n = 221) ≥ 18 years old who reported disabilities in the previous National Survey of Long-term Care Needs in Taiwan were enrolled. The standard for referral was the judgment and agreement of two experienced occupational therapists who reviewed the results of the MDAI. Logistic regressions and Generalized Additive Models were used for analysis. Two predictive models were proposed, one using basic activities of daily living (BADLs) and one using instrumental ADLs (IADLs). Dementia, psychiatric disorders, cognitive impairment, joint range-of-motion limitations, fear of falling, behavioral or emotional problems, expressive deficits (in the BADL-based model), and limitations in IADLs or BADLs were significantly correlated with the need for referral. Both models showed high area under the curve (AUC) values on receiver operating curve testing (AUC = 0.977 and 0.972, respectively). The probability of being referred for community OT services was calculated using the referral algorithm. The referral protocol facilitated communication between healthcare professionals to make appropriate decisions for OT referrals. The methods and findings should be useful for developing referral protocols for other long-term care services.

Large biases in regression-based constituent flux estimates: causes and diagnostic tools

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hirsch, Robert M.

2014-01-01

It has been documented in the literature that, in some cases, widely used regression-based models can produce severely biased estimates of long-term mean river fluxes of various constituents. These models, estimated using sample values of concentration, discharge, and date, are used to compute estimated fluxes for a multiyear period at a daily time step. This study compares results of the LOADEST seven-parameter model, LOADEST five-parameter model, and the Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season (WRTDS) model using subsampling of six very large datasets to better understand this bias problem. This analysis considers sample datasets for dissolved nitrate and total phosphorus. The results show that LOADEST-7 and LOADEST-5, although they often produce very nearly unbiased results, can produce highly biased results. This study identifies three conditions that can give rise to these severe biases: (1) lack of fit of the log of concentration vs. log discharge relationship, (2) substantial differences in the shape of this relationship across seasons, and (3) severely heteroscedastic residuals. The WRTDS model is more resistant to the bias problem than the LOADEST models but is not immune to them. Understanding the causes of the bias problem is crucial to selecting an appropriate method for flux computations. Diagnostic tools for identifying the potential for bias problems are introduced, and strategies for resolving bias problems are described.

Relationship of physiography and snow area to stream discharge. [Kings River Watershed, California

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mccuen, R. H. (Principal Investigator)

1979-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. A comparison of snowmelt runoff models shows that the accuracy of the Tangborn model and regression models is greater if the test data falls within the range of calibration than if the test data lies outside the range of calibration data. The regression models are significantly more accurate for forecasts of 60 days or more than for shorter prediction periods. The Tangborn model is more accurate for forecasts of 90 days or more than for shorter prediction periods. The Martinec model is more accurate for forecasts of one or two days than for periods of 3,5,10, or 15 days. Accuracy of the long-term models seems to be independent of forecast data. The sufficiency of the calibration data base is a function not only of the number of years of record but also of the accuracy with which the calibration years represent the total population of data years. Twelve years appears to be a sufficient length of record for each of the models considered, as long as the twelve years are representative of the population.

Cross-biome transplants of plant litter show decomposition models extend to a broader climatic range but lose predictability at the decadal time scale

Treesearch

William S. Currie; Mark E. Harmon; Ingrid C. Burke; Stephen C. Hart; William J. Parton; Whendee L. Silver

2009-01-01

We analyzed results from 10-year long field incubations of foliar and fine root litter from the Long-term lntersite Decomposition Experiment Team (LIDET) study. We tested whether a variety of climate and litter quality variables could be used to develop regression models of decomposition parameters across wide ranges in litter quality and climate and whether these...

Functional Data Analysis Applied to Modeling of Severe Acute Mucositis and Dysphagia Resulting From Head and Neck Radiation Therapy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dean, Jamie A., E-mail: jamie.dean@icr.ac.uk; Wong, Kee H.; Gay, Hiram

Purpose: Current normal tissue complication probability modeling using logistic regression suffers from bias and high uncertainty in the presence of highly correlated radiation therapy (RT) dose data. This hinders robust estimates of dose-response associations and, hence, optimal normal tissue–sparing strategies from being elucidated. Using functional data analysis (FDA) to reduce the dimensionality of the dose data could overcome this limitation. Methods and Materials: FDA was applied to modeling of severe acute mucositis and dysphagia resulting from head and neck RT. Functional partial least squares regression (FPLS) and functional principal component analysis were used for dimensionality reduction of the dose-volume histogrammore » data. The reduced dose data were input into functional logistic regression models (functional partial least squares–logistic regression [FPLS-LR] and functional principal component–logistic regression [FPC-LR]) along with clinical data. This approach was compared with penalized logistic regression (PLR) in terms of predictive performance and the significance of treatment covariate–response associations, assessed using bootstrapping. Results: The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the PLR, FPC-LR, and FPLS-LR models was 0.65, 0.69, and 0.67, respectively, for mucositis (internal validation) and 0.81, 0.83, and 0.83, respectively, for dysphagia (external validation). The calibration slopes/intercepts for the PLR, FPC-LR, and FPLS-LR models were 1.6/−0.67, 0.45/0.47, and 0.40/0.49, respectively, for mucositis (internal validation) and 2.5/−0.96, 0.79/−0.04, and 0.79/0.00, respectively, for dysphagia (external validation). The bootstrapped odds ratios indicated significant associations between RT dose and severe toxicity in the mucositis and dysphagia FDA models. Cisplatin was significantly associated with severe dysphagia in the FDA models. None of the covariates was significantly associated with severe toxicity in the PLR models. Dose levels greater than approximately 1.0 Gy/fraction were most strongly associated with severe acute mucositis and dysphagia in the FDA models. Conclusions: FPLS and functional principal component analysis marginally improved predictive performance compared with PLR and provided robust dose-response associations. FDA is recommended for use in normal tissue complication probability modeling.« less

Functional Data Analysis Applied to Modeling of Severe Acute Mucositis and Dysphagia Resulting From Head and Neck Radiation Therapy.

PubMed

Dean, Jamie A; Wong, Kee H; Gay, Hiram; Welsh, Liam C; Jones, Ann-Britt; Schick, Ulrike; Oh, Jung Hun; Apte, Aditya; Newbold, Kate L; Bhide, Shreerang A; Harrington, Kevin J; Deasy, Joseph O; Nutting, Christopher M; Gulliford, Sarah L

2016-11-15

Current normal tissue complication probability modeling using logistic regression suffers from bias and high uncertainty in the presence of highly correlated radiation therapy (RT) dose data. This hinders robust estimates of dose-response associations and, hence, optimal normal tissue-sparing strategies from being elucidated. Using functional data analysis (FDA) to reduce the dimensionality of the dose data could overcome this limitation. FDA was applied to modeling of severe acute mucositis and dysphagia resulting from head and neck RT. Functional partial least squares regression (FPLS) and functional principal component analysis were used for dimensionality reduction of the dose-volume histogram data. The reduced dose data were input into functional logistic regression models (functional partial least squares-logistic regression [FPLS-LR] and functional principal component-logistic regression [FPC-LR]) along with clinical data. This approach was compared with penalized logistic regression (PLR) in terms of predictive performance and the significance of treatment covariate-response associations, assessed using bootstrapping. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the PLR, FPC-LR, and FPLS-LR models was 0.65, 0.69, and 0.67, respectively, for mucositis (internal validation) and 0.81, 0.83, and 0.83, respectively, for dysphagia (external validation). The calibration slopes/intercepts for the PLR, FPC-LR, and FPLS-LR models were 1.6/-0.67, 0.45/0.47, and 0.40/0.49, respectively, for mucositis (internal validation) and 2.5/-0.96, 0.79/-0.04, and 0.79/0.00, respectively, for dysphagia (external validation). The bootstrapped odds ratios indicated significant associations between RT dose and severe toxicity in the mucositis and dysphagia FDA models. Cisplatin was significantly associated with severe dysphagia in the FDA models. None of the covariates was significantly associated with severe toxicity in the PLR models. Dose levels greater than approximately 1.0 Gy/fraction were most strongly associated with severe acute mucositis and dysphagia in the FDA models. FPLS and functional principal component analysis marginally improved predictive performance compared with PLR and provided robust dose-response associations. FDA is recommended for use in normal tissue complication probability modeling. Copyright © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

High dimensional linear regression models under long memory dependence and measurement error

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaul, Abhishek

This dissertation consists of three chapters. The first chapter introduces the models under consideration and motivates problems of interest. A brief literature review is also provided in this chapter. The second chapter investigates the properties of Lasso under long range dependent model errors. Lasso is a computationally efficient approach to model selection and estimation, and its properties are well studied when the regression errors are independent and identically distributed. We study the case, where the regression errors form a long memory moving average process. We establish a finite sample oracle inequality for the Lasso solution. We then show the asymptotic sign consistency in this setup. These results are established in the high dimensional setup (p> n) where p can be increasing exponentially with n. Finally, we show the consistency, n½ --d-consistency of Lasso, along with the oracle property of adaptive Lasso, in the case where p is fixed. Here d is the memory parameter of the stationary error sequence. The performance of Lasso is also analysed in the present setup with a simulation study. The third chapter proposes and investigates the properties of a penalized quantile based estimator for measurement error models. Standard formulations of prediction problems in high dimension regression models assume the availability of fully observed covariates and sub-Gaussian and homogeneous model errors. This makes these methods inapplicable to measurement errors models where covariates are unobservable and observations are possibly non sub-Gaussian and heterogeneous. We propose weighted penalized corrected quantile estimators for the regression parameter vector in linear regression models with additive measurement errors, where unobservable covariates are nonrandom. The proposed estimators forgo the need for the above mentioned model assumptions. We study these estimators in both the fixed dimension and high dimensional sparse setups, in the latter setup, the dimensionality can grow exponentially with the sample size. In the fixed dimensional setting we provide the oracle properties associated with the proposed estimators. In the high dimensional setting, we provide bounds for the statistical error associated with the estimation, that hold with asymptotic probability 1, thereby providing the ℓ1-consistency of the proposed estimator. We also establish the model selection consistency in terms of the correctly estimated zero components of the parameter vector. A simulation study that investigates the finite sample accuracy of the proposed estimator is also included in this chapter.

Bayesian Inference for the Stereotype Regression Model: Application to a Case-control Study of Prostate Cancer

PubMed Central

Ahn, Jaeil; Mukherjee, Bhramar; Banerjee, Mousumi; Cooney, Kathleen A.

2011-01-01

Summary The stereotype regression model for categorical outcomes, proposed by Anderson (1984) is nested between the baseline category logits and adjacent category logits model with proportional odds structure. The stereotype model is more parsimonious than the ordinary baseline-category (or multinomial logistic) model due to a product representation of the log odds-ratios in terms of a common parameter corresponding to each predictor and category specific scores. The model could be used for both ordered and unordered outcomes. For ordered outcomes, the stereotype model allows more flexibility than the popular proportional odds model in capturing highly subjective ordinal scaling which does not result from categorization of a single latent variable, but are inherently multidimensional in nature. As pointed out by Greenland (1994), an additional advantage of the stereotype model is that it provides unbiased and valid inference under outcome-stratified sampling as in case-control studies. In addition, for matched case-control studies, the stereotype model is amenable to classical conditional likelihood principle, whereas there is no reduction due to sufficiency under the proportional odds model. In spite of these attractive features, the model has been applied less, as there are issues with maximum likelihood estimation and likelihood based testing approaches due to non-linearity and lack of identifiability of the parameters. We present comprehensive Bayesian inference and model comparison procedure for this class of models as an alternative to the classical frequentist approach. We illustrate our methodology by analyzing data from The Flint Men’s Health Study, a case-control study of prostate cancer in African-American men aged 40 to 79 years. We use clinical staging of prostate cancer in terms of Tumors, Nodes and Metastatsis (TNM) as the categorical response of interest. PMID:19731262

PREDICTION OF MALIGNANT BREAST LESIONS FROM MRI FEATURES: A COMPARISON OF ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK AND LOGISTIC REGRESSION TECHNIQUES

PubMed Central

McLaren, Christine E.; Chen, Wen-Pin; Nie, Ke; Su, Min-Ying

2009-01-01

Rationale and Objectives Dynamic contrast enhanced MRI (DCE-MRI) is a clinical imaging modality for detection and diagnosis of breast lesions. Analytical methods were compared for diagnostic feature selection and performance of lesion classification to differentiate between malignant and benign lesions in patients. Materials and Methods The study included 43 malignant and 28 benign histologically-proven lesions. Eight morphological parameters, ten gray level co-occurrence matrices (GLCM) texture features, and fourteen Laws’ texture features were obtained using automated lesion segmentation and quantitative feature extraction. Artificial neural network (ANN) and logistic regression analysis were compared for selection of the best predictors of malignant lesions among the normalized features. Results Using ANN, the final four selected features were compactness, energy, homogeneity, and Law_LS, with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) = 0.82, and accuracy = 0.76. The diagnostic performance of these 4-features computed on the basis of logistic regression yielded AUC = 0.80 (95% CI, 0.688 to 0.905), similar to that of ANN. The analysis also shows that the odds of a malignant lesion decreased by 48% (95% CI, 25% to 92%) for every increase of 1 SD in the Law_LS feature, adjusted for differences in compactness, energy, and homogeneity. Using logistic regression with z-score transformation, a model comprised of compactness, NRL entropy, and gray level sum average was selected, and it had the highest overall accuracy of 0.75 among all models, with AUC = 0.77 (95% CI, 0.660 to 0.880). When logistic modeling of transformations using the Box-Cox method was performed, the most parsimonious model with predictors, compactness and Law_LS, had an AUC of 0.79 (95% CI, 0.672 to 0.898). Conclusion The diagnostic performance of models selected by ANN and logistic regression was similar. The analytic methods were found to be roughly equivalent in terms of predictive ability when a small number of variables were chosen. The robust ANN methodology utilizes a sophisticated non-linear model, while logistic regression analysis provides insightful information to enhance interpretation of the model features. PMID:19409817

Hyperopic photorefractive keratectomy and central islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gobbi, Pier Giorgio; Carones, Francesco; Morico, Alessandro; Vigo, Luca; Brancato, Rosario

1998-06-01

We have evaluated the refractive evolution in patients treated with yhyperopic PRK to assess the extent of the initial overcorrection and the time constant of regression. To this end, the time history of the refractive error (i.e. the difference between achieved and intended refractive correction) has been fitted by means of an exponential statistical model, giving information characterizing the surgical procedure with a direct clinical meaning. Both hyperopic and myopic PRk procedures have been analyzed by this method. The analysis of the fitting model parameters shows that hyperopic PRK patients exhibit a definitely higher initial overcorrection than myopic ones, and a regression time constant which is much longer. A common mechanism is proposed to be responsible for the refractive outcomes in hyperopic treatments and in myopic patients exhibiting significant central islands. The interpretation is in terms of superhydration of the central cornea, and is based on a simple physical model evaluating the amount of centripetal compression in the apical cornea.

Application of least square support vector machine and multivariate adaptive regression spline models in long term prediction of river water pollution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kisi, Ozgur; Parmar, Kulwinder Singh

2016-03-01

This study investigates the accuracy of least square support vector machine (LSSVM), multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) and M5 model tree (M5Tree) in modeling river water pollution. Various combinations of water quality parameters, Free Ammonia (AMM), Total Kjeldahl Nitrogen (TKN), Water Temperature (WT), Total Coliform (TC), Fecal Coliform (FC) and Potential of Hydrogen (pH) monitored at Nizamuddin, Delhi Yamuna River in India were used as inputs to the applied models. Results indicated that the LSSVM and MARS models had almost same accuracy and they performed better than the M5Tree model in modeling monthly chemical oxygen demand (COD). The average root mean square error (RMSE) of the LSSVM and M5Tree models was decreased by 1.47% and 19.1% using MARS model, respectively. Adding TC input to the models did not increase their accuracy in modeling COD while adding FC and pH inputs to the models generally decreased the accuracy. The overall results indicated that the MARS and LSSVM models could be successfully used in estimating monthly river water pollution level by using AMM, TKN and WT parameters as inputs.

NARMAX model identification of a palm oil biodiesel engine using multi-objective optimization differential evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mansor, Zakwan; Zakaria, Mohd Zakimi; Nor, Azuwir Mohd; Saad, Mohd Sazli; Ahmad, Robiah; Jamaluddin, Hishamuddin

2017-09-01

This paper presents the black-box modelling of palm oil biodiesel engine (POB) using multi-objective optimization differential evolution (MOODE) algorithm. Two objective functions are considered in the algorithm for optimization; minimizing the number of term of a model structure and minimizing the mean square error between actual and predicted outputs. The mathematical model used in this study to represent the POB system is nonlinear auto-regressive moving average with exogenous input (NARMAX) model. Finally, model validity tests are applied in order to validate the possible models that was obtained from MOODE algorithm and lead to select an optimal model.

Using Structured Additive Regression Models to Estimate Risk Factors of Malaria: Analysis of 2010 Malawi Malaria Indicator Survey Data

PubMed Central

Chirombo, James; Lowe, Rachel; Kazembe, Lawrence

2014-01-01

Background After years of implementing Roll Back Malaria (RBM) interventions, the changing landscape of malaria in terms of risk factors and spatial pattern has not been fully investigated. This paper uses the 2010 malaria indicator survey data to investigate if known malaria risk factors remain relevant after many years of interventions. Methods We adopted a structured additive logistic regression model that allowed for spatial correlation, to more realistically estimate malaria risk factors. Our model included child and household level covariates, as well as climatic and environmental factors. Continuous variables were modelled by assuming second order random walk priors, while spatial correlation was specified as a Markov random field prior, with fixed effects assigned diffuse priors. Inference was fully Bayesian resulting in an under five malaria risk map for Malawi. Results Malaria risk increased with increasing age of the child. With respect to socio-economic factors, the greater the household wealth, the lower the malaria prevalence. A general decline in malaria risk was observed as altitude increased. Minimum temperatures and average total rainfall in the three months preceding the survey did not show a strong association with disease risk. Conclusions The structured additive regression model offered a flexible extension to standard regression models by enabling simultaneous modelling of possible nonlinear effects of continuous covariates, spatial correlation and heterogeneity, while estimating usual fixed effects of categorical and continuous observed variables. Our results confirmed that malaria epidemiology is a complex interaction of biotic and abiotic factors, both at the individual, household and community level and that risk factors are still relevant many years after extensive implementation of RBM activities. PMID:24991915

Using structured additive regression models to estimate risk factors of malaria: analysis of 2010 Malawi malaria indicator survey data.

PubMed

Chirombo, James; Lowe, Rachel; Kazembe, Lawrence

2014-01-01

After years of implementing Roll Back Malaria (RBM) interventions, the changing landscape of malaria in terms of risk factors and spatial pattern has not been fully investigated. This paper uses the 2010 malaria indicator survey data to investigate if known malaria risk factors remain relevant after many years of interventions. We adopted a structured additive logistic regression model that allowed for spatial correlation, to more realistically estimate malaria risk factors. Our model included child and household level covariates, as well as climatic and environmental factors. Continuous variables were modelled by assuming second order random walk priors, while spatial correlation was specified as a Markov random field prior, with fixed effects assigned diffuse priors. Inference was fully Bayesian resulting in an under five malaria risk map for Malawi. Malaria risk increased with increasing age of the child. With respect to socio-economic factors, the greater the household wealth, the lower the malaria prevalence. A general decline in malaria risk was observed as altitude increased. Minimum temperatures and average total rainfall in the three months preceding the survey did not show a strong association with disease risk. The structured additive regression model offered a flexible extension to standard regression models by enabling simultaneous modelling of possible nonlinear effects of continuous covariates, spatial correlation and heterogeneity, while estimating usual fixed effects of categorical and continuous observed variables. Our results confirmed that malaria epidemiology is a complex interaction of biotic and abiotic factors, both at the individual, household and community level and that risk factors are still relevant many years after extensive implementation of RBM activities.

Incorporating wind availability into land use regression modelling of air quality in mountainous high-density urban environment.

PubMed

Shi, Yuan; Lau, Kevin Ka-Lun; Ng, Edward

2017-08-01

Urban air quality serves as an important function of the quality of urban life. Land use regression (LUR) modelling of air quality is essential for conducting health impacts assessment but more challenging in mountainous high-density urban scenario due to the complexities of the urban environment. In this study, a total of 21 LUR models are developed for seven kinds of air pollutants (gaseous air pollutants CO, NO 2 , NO x , O 3 , SO 2 and particulate air pollutants PM 2.5 , PM 10 ) with reference to three different time periods (summertime, wintertime and annual average of 5-year long-term hourly monitoring data from local air quality monitoring network) in Hong Kong. Under the mountainous high-density urban scenario, we improved the traditional LUR modelling method by incorporating wind availability information into LUR modelling based on surface geomorphometrical analysis. As a result, 269 independent variables were examined to develop the LUR models by using the "ADDRESS" independent variable selection method and stepwise multiple linear regression (MLR). Cross validation has been performed for each resultant model. The results show that wind-related variables are included in most of the resultant models as statistically significant independent variables. Compared with the traditional method, a maximum increase of 20% was achieved in the prediction performance of annual averaged NO 2 concentration level by incorporating wind-related variables into LUR model development. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Factor regression for interpreting genotype-environment interaction in bread-wheat trials.

PubMed

Baril, C P

1992-05-01

The French INRA wheat (Triticum aestivum L. em Thell.) breeding program is based on multilocation trials to produce high-yielding, adapted lines for a wide range of environments. Differential genotypic responses to variable environment conditions limit the accuracy of yield estimations. Factor regression was used to partition the genotype-environment (GE) interaction into four biologically interpretable terms. Yield data were analyzed from 34 wheat genotypes grown in four environments using 12 auxiliary agronomic traits as genotypic and environmental covariates. Most of the GE interaction (91%) was explained by the combination of only three traits: 1,000-kernel weight, lodging susceptibility and spike length. These traits are easily measured in breeding programs, therefore factor regression model can provide a convenient and useful prediction method of yield.

Impact of work pressure, work stress and work-family conflict on firefighter burnout.

PubMed

Smith, Todd D; DeJoy, David M; Dyal, Mari-Amanda Aimee; Huang, Gaojian

2017-10-25

Little research has explored burnout and its causes in the American fire service. Data were collected from career firefighters in the southeastern United States (n = 208) to explore these relationships. A hierarchical regression model was tested to examine predictors of burnout including sociodemographic characteristics (model 1), work pressure (model 2), work stress and work-family conflict (model 3) and interaction terms (model 4). The main findings suggest that perceived work stress and work-family conflict emerged as the significant predictors of burnout (both p < .001). Interventions and programs aimed at these predictors could potentially curtail burnout among firefighters.

Associations between ambient fine particulate air pollution and hypertension: A nationwide cross-sectional study in China.

PubMed

Liu, Cong; Chen, Renjie; Zhao, Yaohui; Ma, Zongwei; Bi, Jun; Liu, Yang; Meng, Xia; Wang, Yafeng; Chen, Xinxin; Li, Weihua; Kan, Haidong

2017-04-15

Limited evidence is available regarding the long-term effects of fine particulate (PM 2.5 ) air pollution on hypertension in developing countries. This study aimed to explore the associations of long-term exposure to PM 2.5 with hypertension prevalence and blood pressure (BP) in China. We conducted a cross-sectional study based on a nationally representative survey (13,975 participants). We estimated the long-term average exposure to PM 2.5 for all subjects during the study period (June 2011 to March 2012) by a satellite-based model with a spatial resolution of 10×10km. We applied multivariable logistic regression models to evaluate the associations between PM 2.5 and hypertension prevalence and linear regression models for the associations between PM 2.5 and systolic BP and diastolic BP. We also explored potential effect modification by stratification analyses. There were 5715 cases of hypertension, accounting for 40.9% of the study population in this analysis. The annual mean exposure to PM 2.5 for all participants was 72.8μg/m 3 on average. An interquartile range increase (IQR, 41.7μg/m 3 ) in PM 2.5 was associated with higher prevalence of hypertension with an odds ratio of 1.11 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.05, 1.17]. Systolic BP increased by 0.60mmHg (95% CI: 0.05, 1.15) per an IQR increase in PM 2.5 . The effects of PM 2.5 on hypertension prevalence were stronger among middle-aged, obese and urban participants. This national study indicated that long-term exposure to PM 2.5 was associated with increased prevalence of hypertension and slightly higher systolic BP in China. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Global estimation of long-term persistence in annual river runoff

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Markonis, Y.; Moustakis, Y.; Nasika, C.; Sychova, P.; Dimitriadis, P.; Hanel, M.; Máca, P.; Papalexiou, S. M.

2018-03-01

Long-term persistence (LTP) of annual river runoff is a topic of ongoing hydrological research, due to its implications to water resources management. Here, we estimate its strength, measured by the Hurst coefficient H, in 696 annual, globally distributed, streamflow records with at least 80 years of data. We use three estimation methods (maximum likelihood estimator, Whittle estimator and least squares variance) resulting in similar mean values of H close to 0.65. Subsequently, we explore potential factors influencing H by two linear (Spearman's rank correlation, multiple linear regression) and two non-linear (self-organizing maps, random forests) techniques. Catchment area is found to be crucial for medium to larger watersheds, while climatic controls, such as aridity index, have higher impact to smaller ones. Our findings indicate that long-term persistence is weaker than found in other studies, suggesting that enhanced LTP is encountered in large-catchment rivers, were the effect of spatial aggregation is more intense. However, we also show that the estimated values of H can be reproduced by a short-term persistence stochastic model such as an auto-regressive AR(1) process. A direct consequence is that some of the most common methods for the estimation of H coefficient, might not be suitable for discriminating short- and long-term persistence even in long observational records.

An empirical model for ocean radar backscatter and its application in inversion routine to eliminate wind speed and direction effects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dome, G. J.; Fung, A. K.; Moore, R. K.

1977-01-01

Several regression models were tested to explain the wind direction dependence of the 1975 JONSWAP (Joint North Sea Wave Project) scatterometer data. The models consider the radar backscatter as a harmonic function of wind direction. The constant term accounts for the major effect of wind speed and the sinusoidal terms for the effects of direction. The fundamental accounts for the difference in upwind and downwind returns, while the second harmonic explains the upwind-crosswind difference. It is shown that a second harmonic model appears to adequately explain the angular variation. A simple inversion technique, which uses two orthogonal scattering measurements, is also described which eliminates the effect of wind speed and direction. Vertical polarization was shown to be more effective in determining both wind speed and direction than horizontal polarization.

The moderation of resilience on the negative effect of pain on depression and post-traumatic growth in individuals with spinal cord injury.

PubMed

Min, Jung-Ah; Lee, Chang-Uk; Hwang, Sung-Il; Shin, Jung-In; Lee, Bum-Suk; Han, Sang-Hoon; Ju, Hye-In; Lee, Cha-Yeon; Lee, Chul; Chae, Jeong-Ho

2014-01-01

To determine the moderating effect of resilience on the negative effects of chronic pain on depression and post-traumatic growth. Community-dwelling individuals with SCI (n = 37) were recruited at short-term admission for yearly regular health examination. Participants completed self-rating standardized questionnaires measuring pain, resilience, depression and post-traumatic growth. Hierarchical linear regression analysis was performed to identify the moderating effect of resilience on the relationships of pain with depression and post-traumatic growth after controlling for relevant covariates. In the regression model of depression, the effect of pain severity on depression was decreased (β was changed from 0.47 to 0.33) after entering resilience into the model. In the final model, both pain and resilience were significant independent predictors for depression (β = 0.33, p = 0.038 and β = -0.47, p = 0.012, respectively). In the regression model of post-traumatic growth, the effect of pain severity became insignificant after entering resilience into the model. In the final model, resilience was a significant predictor (β = 0.51, p = 0.016). Resilience potentially mitigated the negative effects of pain. Moreover, it independently contributed to reduced depression and greater post-traumatic growth. Our findings suggest that resilience might provide a potential target for intervention in SCI individuals.

Logistic Regression with Multiple Random Effects: A Simulation Study of Estimation Methods and Statistical Packages.

PubMed

Kim, Yoonsang; Choi, Young-Ku; Emery, Sherry

2013-08-01

Several statistical packages are capable of estimating generalized linear mixed models and these packages provide one or more of three estimation methods: penalized quasi-likelihood, Laplace, and Gauss-Hermite. Many studies have investigated these methods' performance for the mixed-effects logistic regression model. However, the authors focused on models with one or two random effects and assumed a simple covariance structure between them, which may not be realistic. When there are multiple correlated random effects in a model, the computation becomes intensive, and often an algorithm fails to converge. Moreover, in our analysis of smoking status and exposure to anti-tobacco advertisements, we have observed that when a model included multiple random effects, parameter estimates varied considerably from one statistical package to another even when using the same estimation method. This article presents a comprehensive review of the advantages and disadvantages of each estimation method. In addition, we compare the performances of the three methods across statistical packages via simulation, which involves two- and three-level logistic regression models with at least three correlated random effects. We apply our findings to a real dataset. Our results suggest that two packages-SAS GLIMMIX Laplace and SuperMix Gaussian quadrature-perform well in terms of accuracy, precision, convergence rates, and computing speed. We also discuss the strengths and weaknesses of the two packages in regard to sample sizes.

Logistic Regression with Multiple Random Effects: A Simulation Study of Estimation Methods and Statistical Packages

PubMed Central

Kim, Yoonsang; Emery, Sherry

2013-01-01

Several statistical packages are capable of estimating generalized linear mixed models and these packages provide one or more of three estimation methods: penalized quasi-likelihood, Laplace, and Gauss-Hermite. Many studies have investigated these methods’ performance for the mixed-effects logistic regression model. However, the authors focused on models with one or two random effects and assumed a simple covariance structure between them, which may not be realistic. When there are multiple correlated random effects in a model, the computation becomes intensive, and often an algorithm fails to converge. Moreover, in our analysis of smoking status and exposure to anti-tobacco advertisements, we have observed that when a model included multiple random effects, parameter estimates varied considerably from one statistical package to another even when using the same estimation method. This article presents a comprehensive review of the advantages and disadvantages of each estimation method. In addition, we compare the performances of the three methods across statistical packages via simulation, which involves two- and three-level logistic regression models with at least three correlated random effects. We apply our findings to a real dataset. Our results suggest that two packages—SAS GLIMMIX Laplace and SuperMix Gaussian quadrature—perform well in terms of accuracy, precision, convergence rates, and computing speed. We also discuss the strengths and weaknesses of the two packages in regard to sample sizes. PMID:24288415

Effect of fasting ramadan in diabetes control status - application of extensive diabetes education, serum creatinine with HbA1c statistical ANOVA and regression models to prevent hypoglycemia.

PubMed

Aziz, Kamran M A

2013-09-01

Ramadan fasting is an obligatory duty for Muslims. Unique physiologic and metabolic changes occur during fasting which requires adjustments of diabetes medications. Although challenging, successful fasting can be accomplished if pre-Ramadan extensive education is provided to the patients. Current research was conducted to study effective Ramadan fasting with different OHAs/insulins without significant risk of hypoglycemia in terms of HbA1c reductions after Ramadan. ANOVA model was used to assess HbA1c levels among different education statuses. Serum creatinine was used to measure renal functions. Pre-Ramadan diabetes education with alteration of therapy and dosage adjustments for OHAs/insulin was done. Regression models for HbA1c before Ramadan with FBS before sunset were also synthesized as a tool to prevent hypoglycemia and successful Ramadan fasting in future. Out of 1046 patients, 998 patients fasted successfully without any episodes of hypoglycemia. 48 patients (4.58%) experienced hypoglycemia. Χ(2) Test for CRD/CKD with hypoglycemia was also significant (p-value < 0.001). Significant associations and linear regression were found for HbA1c and sunset FBS; RBS post-dawn with RBS mid-day and FBS at sunset. The proposed regression models of this study can be used as a guide in future for Ramadan diabetes management. Some relevant patents are also outlined in this paper.

Can air temperatures be used to project influences of climate change on stream temperatures?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arismendi, I.; Safeeq, M.; Dunham, J.; Johnson, S. L.

2013-12-01

The lack of available in situ stream temperature records at broad spatiotemporal scales have been recognized as a major limiting factor in the understanding of thermal behavior of stream and river systems. This has motivated the promotion of a wide variety of models that use surrogates for stream temperatures including a regression approach that uses air temperature as the predictor variable. We investigate the long-term performance of widely used linear and non-linear regression models between air and stream temperatures to project the latter in future climate scenarios. Specifically, we examine the temporal variability of the parameters that define each of these models in long-term stream and air temperature datasets representing relatively natural and highly human-influenced streams. We selected 25 sites with long-term records that monitored year-round daily measurements of stream temperature (daily mean) in the western United States (California, Oregon, Idaho, Washington, and Alaska). Surface air temperature data from each site was not available. Therefore, we calculated daily mean surface air temperature for each site in contiguous US from a 1/16-degree resolution gridded surface temperature data. Our findings highlight several limitations that are endemic to linear or nonlinear regressions that have been applied in many recent attempts to project future stream temperatures based on air temperature. Our results also show that applications over longer time periods, as well as extrapolation of model predictions to project future stream temperatures are unlikely to be reliable. Although we did not analyze a broad range of stream types at a continental or global extent, our analysis of stream temperatures within the set of streams considered herein was more than sufficient to illustrate a number of specific limitations associated with statistical projections of stream temperature based on air temperature. Radar plots of Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) values for the two correlation models in regulated (n=14; lower panel) and unregulated (n=11; upper panel) streams. Solid lines represent average × SD of the NSE estimated for different time periods every 5-year. Dotted line at each plot indicates a NSE = 0.7. Symbols outside of the dotted line at each plot represent a satisfactory level of accuracy of the model

Fractional differential equations based modeling of microbial survival and growth curves: model development and experimental validation.

PubMed

Kaur, A; Takhar, P S; Smith, D M; Mann, J E; Brashears, M M

2008-10-01

A fractional differential equations (FDEs)-based theory involving 1- and 2-term equations was developed to predict the nonlinear survival and growth curves of foodborne pathogens. It is interesting to note that the solution of 1-term FDE leads to the Weibull model. Nonlinear regression (Gauss-Newton method) was performed to calculate the parameters of the 1-term and 2-term FDEs. The experimental inactivation data of Salmonella cocktail in ground turkey breast, ground turkey thigh, and pork shoulder; and cocktail of Salmonella, E. coli, and Listeria monocytogenes in ground beef exposed at isothermal cooking conditions of 50 to 66 degrees C were used for validation. To evaluate the performance of 2-term FDE in predicting the growth curves-growth of Salmonella typhimurium, Salmonella Enteritidis, and background flora in ground pork and boneless pork chops; and E. coli O157:H7 in ground beef in the temperature range of 22.2 to 4.4 degrees C were chosen. A program was written in Matlab to predict the model parameters and survival and growth curves. Two-term FDE was more successful in describing the complex shapes of microbial survival and growth curves as compared to the linear and Weibull models. Predicted curves of 2-term FDE had higher magnitudes of R(2) (0.89 to 0.99) and lower magnitudes of root mean square error (0.0182 to 0.5461) for all experimental cases in comparison to the linear and Weibull models. This model was capable of predicting the tails in survival curves, which was not possible using Weibull and linear models. The developed model can be used for other foodborne pathogens in a variety of food products to study the destruction and growth behavior.

Use of Two-Part Regression Calibration Model to Correct for Measurement Error in Episodically Consumed Foods in a Single-Replicate Study Design: EPIC Case Study

PubMed Central

Agogo, George O.; van der Voet, Hilko; Veer, Pieter van’t; Ferrari, Pietro; Leenders, Max; Muller, David C.; Sánchez-Cantalejo, Emilio; Bamia, Christina; Braaten, Tonje; Knüppel, Sven; Johansson, Ingegerd; van Eeuwijk, Fred A.; Boshuizen, Hendriek

2014-01-01

In epidemiologic studies, measurement error in dietary variables often attenuates association between dietary intake and disease occurrence. To adjust for the attenuation caused by error in dietary intake, regression calibration is commonly used. To apply regression calibration, unbiased reference measurements are required. Short-term reference measurements for foods that are not consumed daily contain excess zeroes that pose challenges in the calibration model. We adapted two-part regression calibration model, initially developed for multiple replicates of reference measurements per individual to a single-replicate setting. We showed how to handle excess zero reference measurements by two-step modeling approach, how to explore heteroscedasticity in the consumed amount with variance-mean graph, how to explore nonlinearity with the generalized additive modeling (GAM) and the empirical logit approaches, and how to select covariates in the calibration model. The performance of two-part calibration model was compared with the one-part counterpart. We used vegetable intake and mortality data from European Prospective Investigation on Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study. In the EPIC, reference measurements were taken with 24-hour recalls. For each of the three vegetable subgroups assessed separately, correcting for error with an appropriately specified two-part calibration model resulted in about three fold increase in the strength of association with all-cause mortality, as measured by the log hazard ratio. Further found is that the standard way of including covariates in the calibration model can lead to over fitting the two-part calibration model. Moreover, the extent of adjusting for error is influenced by the number and forms of covariates in the calibration model. For episodically consumed foods, we advise researchers to pay special attention to response distribution, nonlinearity, and covariate inclusion in specifying the calibration model. PMID:25402487

Bayesian quantitative precipitation forecasts in terms of quantiles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bentzien, Sabrina; Friederichs, Petra

2014-05-01

Ensemble prediction systems (EPS) for numerical weather predictions on the mesoscale are particularly developed to obtain probabilistic guidance for high impact weather. An EPS not only issues a deterministic future state of the atmosphere but a sample of possible future states. Ensemble postprocessing then translates such a sample of forecasts into probabilistic measures. This study focus on probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts in terms of quantiles. Quantiles are particular suitable to describe precipitation at various locations, since no assumption is required on the distribution of precipitation. The focus is on the prediction during high-impact events and related to the Volkswagen Stiftung funded project WEX-MOP (Mesoscale Weather Extremes - Theory, Spatial Modeling and Prediction). Quantile forecasts are derived from the raw ensemble and via quantile regression. Neighborhood method and time-lagging are effective tools to inexpensively increase the ensemble spread, which results in more reliable forecasts especially for extreme precipitation events. Since an EPS provides a large amount of potentially informative predictors, a variable selection is required in order to obtain a stable statistical model. A Bayesian formulation of quantile regression allows for inference about the selection of predictive covariates by the use of appropriate prior distributions. Moreover, the implementation of an additional process layer for the regression parameters accounts for spatial variations of the parameters. Bayesian quantile regression and its spatially adaptive extension is illustrated for the German-focused mesoscale weather prediction ensemble COSMO-DE-EPS, which runs (pre)operationally since December 2010 at the German Meteorological Service (DWD). Objective out-of-sample verification uses the quantile score (QS), a weighted absolute error between quantile forecasts and observations. The QS is a proper scoring function and can be decomposed into reliability, resolutions and uncertainty parts. A quantile reliability plot gives detailed insights in the predictive performance of the quantile forecasts.

The effects of climate change on harp seals (Pagophilus groenlandicus).

PubMed

Johnston, David W; Bowers, Matthew T; Friedlaender, Ari S; Lavigne, David M

2012-01-01

Harp seals (Pagophilus groenlandicus) have evolved life history strategies to exploit seasonal sea ice as a breeding platform. As such, individuals are prepared to deal with fluctuations in the quantity and quality of ice in their breeding areas. It remains unclear, however, how shifts in climate may affect seal populations. The present study assesses the effects of climate change on harp seals through three linked analyses. First, we tested the effects of short-term climate variability on young-of-the year harp seal mortality using a linear regression of sea ice cover in the Gulf of St. Lawrence against stranding rates of dead harp seals in the region during 1992 to 2010. A similar regression of stranding rates and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index values was also conducted. These analyses revealed negative correlations between both ice cover and NAO conditions and seal mortality, indicating that lighter ice cover and lower NAO values result in higher mortality. A retrospective cross-correlation analysis of NAO conditions and sea ice cover from 1978 to 2011 revealed that NAO-related changes in sea ice may have contributed to the depletion of seals on the east coast of Canada during 1950 to 1972, and to their recovery during 1973 to 2000. This historical retrospective also reveals opposite links between neonatal mortality in harp seals in the Northeast Atlantic and NAO phase. Finally, an assessment of the long-term trends in sea ice cover in the breeding regions of harp seals across the entire North Atlantic during 1979 through 2011 using multiple linear regression models and mixed effects linear regression models revealed that sea ice cover in all harp seal breeding regions has been declining by as much as 6 percent per decade over the time series of available satellite data.

The Effects of Climate Change on Harp Seals (Pagophilus groenlandicus)

PubMed Central

Johnston, David W.; Bowers, Matthew T.; Friedlaender, Ari S.; Lavigne, David M.

2012-01-01

Harp seals (Pagophilus groenlandicus) have evolved life history strategies to exploit seasonal sea ice as a breeding platform. As such, individuals are prepared to deal with fluctuations in the quantity and quality of ice in their breeding areas. It remains unclear, however, how shifts in climate may affect seal populations. The present study assesses the effects of climate change on harp seals through three linked analyses. First, we tested the effects of short-term climate variability on young-of-the year harp seal mortality using a linear regression of sea ice cover in the Gulf of St. Lawrence against stranding rates of dead harp seals in the region during 1992 to 2010. A similar regression of stranding rates and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index values was also conducted. These analyses revealed negative correlations between both ice cover and NAO conditions and seal mortality, indicating that lighter ice cover and lower NAO values result in higher mortality. A retrospective cross-correlation analysis of NAO conditions and sea ice cover from 1978 to 2011 revealed that NAO-related changes in sea ice may have contributed to the depletion of seals on the east coast of Canada during 1950 to 1972, and to their recovery during 1973 to 2000. This historical retrospective also reveals opposite links between neonatal mortality in harp seals in the Northeast Atlantic and NAO phase. Finally, an assessment of the long-term trends in sea ice cover in the breeding regions of harp seals across the entire North Atlantic during 1979 through 2011 using multiple linear regression models and mixed effects linear regression models revealed that sea ice cover in all harp seal breeding regions has been declining by as much as 6 percent per decade over the time series of available satellite data. PMID:22238591

Educational Subculture and Dropping out in Higher Education: A Longitudinal Case Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Venuleo, C.; Mossi, P.; Salvatore, S.

2016-01-01

The paper tests longitudinally the hypothesis that educational subcultures in terms of which students interpret their role and their educational setting affect the probability of dropping out of higher education. A logistic regression model was performed to predict drop out at the beginning of the second academic year for the 823 freshmen of a…

Annual Tree Growth Predictions From Periodic Measurements

Treesearch

Quang V. Cao

2004-01-01

Data from annual measurements of a loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) plantation were available for this study. Regression techniques were employed to model annual changes of individual trees in terms of diameters, heights, and survival probabilities. Subsets of the data that include measurements every 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 years were used to fit the same...

General Education Development (GED) Recipients' Life Course Experiences: Humanizing the Findings

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hartigan, Lacey A.

2017-01-01

This study examines a range of GED recipients' life course contexts and experiences and their relationship with long-term outcomes. Using descriptive comparisons, bivariate tests, and propensity-score matched regression models to analyze data from rounds 1-15 of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, 1997, analyses aim to examine: (1)…

Operative factors associated with short-term outcome in horses with large colon volvulus: 47 cases from 2006 to 2013

PubMed Central

Gonzalez, L. M.; Fogle, C. A.; Baker, W. T.; Hughes, F. E.; Law, J. M.; Motsinger-Reif, A. A.; Blikslager, A. T.

2014-01-01

Summary Reasons for performing the study There is an important need for objective parameters that accurately predict the outcome of horses with large colon volvulus. Objectives To evaluate the predictive value of a series of histomorphometric parameters on short-term outcome, as well as the impact of colonic resection on horses with large colon volvulus. Study Design Retrospective cohort study Methods Adult horses admitted to the Equine and Farm Animal Veterinary Center at North Carolina State University, Peterson & Smith and Chino Valley Equine Hospitals between 2006–2013 undergoing an exploratory celiotomy, diagnosed with large colon volvulus of ≥360 degrees, where a pelvic flexure biopsy was obtained, and that recovered from general anaesthesia, were selected for inclusion in the study. Logistic regression was used to determine associations between signalment, histomorphometric measurements of interstitial: crypt ratio, degree of haemorrhage, percentage loss of luminal and glandular epithelium, as well as colonic resection with short-term outcome (discharge from the hospital). Results Pelvic flexure biopsies from 47 horses with large colon volvulus were evaluated. Factors that were significantly associated with short-term outcome on univariate logistic regression were Thoroughbred breed (P = 0.04), interstitial: crypt ratio >1 (P = 0.02) and haemorrhage score ≥3 (P = 0.005). Resection (P = 0.92) was not found to be significantly associated with short-term outcome. No combined factors increased the likelihood of death in forward stepwise logistic regression modelling. A digitally quantified haemorrhage area measurement strengthened the association of haemorrhage with non-survival in cases of large colon volvulus. Conclusions Histomorphometric measurements of interstitial: crypt ratio and degree of haemorrhage predict short-term outcome in cases of large colon volvulus. Resection was not associated with short-term outcome in horses selected for this study. Accurate quantification of mucosal haemorrhage at the time of surgery may improve veterinary surgeons’ prognostic capabilities in horses with large colon volvulus. PMID:24735170

Operative factors associated with short-term outcome in horses with large colon volvulus: 47 cases from 2006 to 2013.

PubMed

Gonzalez, L M; Fogle, C A; Baker, W T; Hughes, F E; Law, J M; Motsinger-Reif, A A; Blikslager, A T

2015-05-01

There is an important need for objective parameters that accurately predict the outcome of horses with large colon volvulus. To evaluate the predictive value of a series of histomorphometric parameters on short-term outcome, as well as the impact of colonic resection on horses with large colon volvulus. Retrospective cohort study. Adult horses admitted to the Equine and Farm Animal Veterinary Center at North Carolina State University, Peterson and Smith and Chino Valley Equine Hospitals between 2006 and 2013 that underwent an exploratory coeliotomy, diagnosed with large colon volvulus of ≥360 degrees, where a pelvic flexure biopsy was obtained, and that recovered from general anaesthesia, were selected for inclusion in the study. Logistic regression was used to determine associations between signalment, histomorphometric measurements of interstitium-to-crypt ratio, degree of haemorrhage, percentage loss of luminal and glandular epithelium, as well as colonic resection with short-term outcome (discharge from the hospital). Pelvic flexure biopsies from 47 horses with large colon volvulus were evaluated. Factors that were significantly associated with short-term outcome on univariate logistic regression were Thoroughbred breed (P = 0.04), interstitium-to-crypt ratio >1 (P = 0.02) and haemorrhage score ≥3 (P = 0.005). Resection (P = 0.92) was not found to be associated significantly with short-term outcome. No combined factors increased the likelihood of death in forward stepwise logistic regression modelling. A digitally quantified measurement of haemorrhage area strengthened the association of haemorrhage with nonsurvival in cases of large colon volvulus. Histomorphometric measurements of interstitium-to-crypt ratio and degree of haemorrhage predict short-term outcome in cases of large colon volvulus. Resection was not associated with short-term outcome in horses selected for this study. Accurate quantification of mucosal haemorrhage at the time of surgery may improve veterinary surgeons' prognostic capabilities in horses with large colon volvulus. © 2014 EVJ Ltd.

Impact of weather factors on hand, foot and mouth disease, and its role in short-term incidence trend forecast in Huainan City, Anhui Province.

PubMed

Zhao, Desheng; Wang, Lulu; Cheng, Jian; Xu, Jun; Xu, Zhiwei; Xie, Mingyu; Yang, Huihui; Li, Kesheng; Wen, Lingying; Wang, Xu; Zhang, Heng; Wang, Shusi; Su, Hong

2017-03-01

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is one of the most common communicable diseases in China, and current climate change had been recognized as a significant contributor. Nevertheless, no reliable models have been put forward to predict the dynamics of HFMD cases based on short-term weather variations. The present study aimed to examine the association between weather factors and HFMD, and to explore the accuracy of seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model with local weather conditions in forecasting HFMD. Weather and HFMD data from 2009 to 2014 in Huainan, China, were used. Poisson regression model combined with a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was applied to examine the relationship between weather factors and HFMD. The forecasting model for HFMD was performed by using the SARIMA model. The results showed that temperature rise was significantly associated with an elevated risk of HFMD. Yet, no correlations between relative humidity, barometric pressure and rainfall, and HFMD were observed. SARIMA models with temperature variable fitted HFMD data better than the model without it (sR 2 increased, while the BIC decreased), and the SARIMA (0, 1, 1)(0, 1, 0) 52 offered the best fit for HFMD data. In addition, compared with females and nursery children, males and scattered children may be more suitable for using SARIMA model to predict the number of HFMD cases and it has high precision. In conclusion, high temperature could increase the risk of contracting HFMD. SARIMA model with temperature variable can effectively improve its forecast accuracy, which can provide valuable information for the policy makers and public health to construct a best-fitting model and optimize HFMD prevention.

Impact of weather factors on hand, foot and mouth disease, and its role in short-term incidence trend forecast in Huainan City, Anhui Province

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Desheng; Wang, Lulu; Cheng, Jian; Xu, Jun; Xu, Zhiwei; Xie, Mingyu; Yang, Huihui; Li, Kesheng; Wen, Lingying; Wang, Xu; Zhang, Heng; Wang, Shusi; Su, Hong

2017-03-01

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is one of the most common communicable diseases in China, and current climate change had been recognized as a significant contributor. Nevertheless, no reliable models have been put forward to predict the dynamics of HFMD cases based on short-term weather variations. The present study aimed to examine the association between weather factors and HFMD, and to explore the accuracy of seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model with local weather conditions in forecasting HFMD. Weather and HFMD data from 2009 to 2014 in Huainan, China, were used. Poisson regression model combined with a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was applied to examine the relationship between weather factors and HFMD. The forecasting model for HFMD was performed by using the SARIMA model. The results showed that temperature rise was significantly associated with an elevated risk of HFMD. Yet, no correlations between relative humidity, barometric pressure and rainfall, and HFMD were observed. SARIMA models with temperature variable fitted HFMD data better than the model without it (s R 2 increased, while the BIC decreased), and the SARIMA (0, 1, 1)(0, 1, 0)52 offered the best fit for HFMD data. In addition, compared with females and nursery children, males and scattered children may be more suitable for using SARIMA model to predict the number of HFMD cases and it has high precision. In conclusion, high temperature could increase the risk of contracting HFMD. SARIMA model with temperature variable can effectively improve its forecast accuracy, which can provide valuable information for the policy makers and public health to construct a best-fitting model and optimize HFMD prevention.

Analyzing Seasonal Variations in Suicide With Fourier Poisson Time-Series Regression: A Registry-Based Study From Norway, 1969-2007.

PubMed

Bramness, Jørgen G; Walby, Fredrik A; Morken, Gunnar; Røislien, Jo

2015-08-01

Seasonal variation in the number of suicides has long been acknowledged. It has been suggested that this seasonality has declined in recent years, but studies have generally used statistical methods incapable of confirming this. We examined all suicides occurring in Norway during 1969-2007 (more than 20,000 suicides in total) to establish whether seasonality decreased over time. Fitting of additive Fourier Poisson time-series regression models allowed for formal testing of a possible linear decrease in seasonality, or a reduction at a specific point in time, while adjusting for a possible smooth nonlinear long-term change without having to categorize time into discrete yearly units. The models were compared using Akaike's Information Criterion and analysis of variance. A model with a seasonal pattern was significantly superior to a model without one. There was a reduction in seasonality during the period. Both the model assuming a linear decrease in seasonality and the model assuming a change at a specific point in time were both superior to a model assuming constant seasonality, thus confirming by formal statistical testing that the magnitude of the seasonality in suicides has diminished. The additive Fourier Poisson time-series regression model would also be useful for studying other temporal phenomena with seasonal components. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Evaluation of regression-based 3-D shoulder rhythms.

PubMed

Xu, Xu; Dickerson, Clark R; Lin, Jia-Hua; McGorry, Raymond W

2016-08-01

The movements of the humerus, the clavicle, and the scapula are not completely independent. The coupled pattern of movement of these bones is called the shoulder rhythm. To date, multiple studies have focused on providing regression-based 3-D shoulder rhythms, in which the orientations of the clavicle and the scapula are estimated by the orientation of the humerus. In this study, six existing regression-based shoulder rhythms were evaluated by an independent dataset in terms of their predictability. The datasets include the measured orientations of the humerus, the clavicle, and the scapula of 14 participants over 118 different upper arm postures. The predicted orientations of the clavicle and the scapula were derived from applying those regression-based shoulder rhythms to the humerus orientation. The results indicated that none of those regression-based shoulder rhythms provides consistently more accurate results than the others. For all the joint angles and all the shoulder rhythms, the RMSE are all greater than 5°. Among those shoulder rhythms, the scapula lateral/medial rotation has the strongest correlation between the predicted and the measured angles, while the other thoracoclavicular and thoracoscapular bone orientation angles only showed a weak to moderate correlation. Since the regression-based shoulder rhythm has been adopted for shoulder biomechanical models to estimate shoulder muscle activities and structure loads, there needs to be further investigation on how the predicted error from the shoulder rhythm affects the output of the biomechanical model. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Effect of folic acid on appetite in children: ordinal logistic and fuzzy logistic regressions.

PubMed

Namdari, Mahshid; Abadi, Alireza; Taheri, S Mahmoud; Rezaei, Mansour; Kalantari, Naser; Omidvar, Nasrin

2014-03-01

Reduced appetite and low food intake are often a concern in preschool children, since it can lead to malnutrition, a leading cause of impaired growth and mortality in childhood. It is occasionally considered that folic acid has a positive effect on appetite enhancement and consequently growth in children. The aim of this study was to assess the effect of folic acid on the appetite of preschool children 3 to 6 y old. The study sample included 127 children ages 3 to 6 who were randomly selected from 20 preschools in the city of Tehran in 2011. Since appetite was measured by linguistic terms, a fuzzy logistic regression was applied for modeling. The obtained results were compared with a statistical ordinal logistic model. After controlling for the potential confounders, in a statistical ordinal logistic model, serum folate showed a significantly positive effect on appetite. A small but positive effect of folate was detected by fuzzy logistic regression. Based on fuzzy regression, the risk for poor appetite in preschool children was related to the employment status of their mothers. In this study, a positive association was detected between the levels of serum folate and improved appetite. For further investigation, a randomized controlled, double-blind clinical trial could be helpful to address causality. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Psychosocial work characteristics and long-term sickness absence due to mental disorders.

PubMed

van Hoffen, Marieke F A; Roelen, Corné A M; van Rhenen, Willem; Schaufeli, Wilmar B; Heymans, Martijn W; Twisk, Jos W R

2018-02-09

Psychosocial work characteristics are associated with all-cause long-term sickness absence (LTSA). This study investigated whether psychosocial work characteristics such as higher workload, faster pace of work, less variety in work, lack of performance feedback, and lack of supervisor support are prospectively associated with higher LTSA due to mental disorders. Cohort study including 4877 workers employed in the distribution and transport sector in The Netherlands. Psychosocial work characteristics were included in a logistic regression model estimating the odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) of mental LTSA during 2-year follow-up. The ability of the regression model to discriminate between workers with and without mental LTSA was investigated with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Tow thousand seven hundred and eighty-two (57%) workers were included in the analysis; 73 (3%) had mental LTSA. Feedback about one's performance (OR = 0.82; 95% CI 0.70-0.96) was associated with mental LTSA. A prediction model including psychosocial work characteristics poorly discriminated (AUC = 0.65; 95% CI 0.56-0.74) between workers with and without mental LTSA. Feedback about one's performance is associated with lower rates of mental LTSA, but it is not useful to measure psychosocial work characteristics to identify workers at risk of mental LTSA.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gissi, Andrea; Dipartimento di Farmacia – Scienze del Farmaco, Università degli Studi di Bari “Aldo Moro”, Via E. Orabona 4, 70125 Bari; Lombardo, Anna

The bioconcentration factor (BCF) is an important bioaccumulation hazard assessment metric in many regulatory contexts. Its assessment is required by the REACH regulation (Registration, Evaluation, Authorization and Restriction of Chemicals) and by CLP (Classification, Labeling and Packaging). We challenged nine well-known and widely used BCF QSAR models against 851 compounds stored in an ad-hoc created database. The goodness of the regression analysis was assessed by considering the determination coefficient (R{sup 2}) and the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE); Cooper's statistics and Matthew's Correlation Coefficient (MCC) were calculated for all the thresholds relevant for regulatory purposes (i.e. 100 L/kg for Chemicalmore » Safety Assessment; 500 L/kg for Classification and Labeling; 2000 and 5000 L/kg for Persistent, Bioaccumulative and Toxic (PBT) and very Persistent, very Bioaccumulative (vPvB) assessment) to assess the classification, with particular attention to the models' ability to control the occurrence of false negatives. As a first step, statistical analysis was performed for the predictions of the entire dataset; R{sup 2}>0.70 was obtained using CORAL, T.E.S.T. and EPISuite Arnot–Gobas models. As classifiers, ACD and log P-based equations were the best in terms of sensitivity, ranging from 0.75 to 0.94. External compound predictions were carried out for the models that had their own training sets. CORAL model returned the best performance (R{sup 2}{sub ext}=0.59), followed by the EPISuite Meylan model (R{sup 2}{sub ext}=0.58). The latter gave also the highest sensitivity on external compounds with values from 0.55 to 0.85, depending on the thresholds. Statistics were also compiled for compounds falling into the models Applicability Domain (AD), giving better performances. In this respect, VEGA CAESAR was the best model in terms of regression (R{sup 2}=0.94) and classification (average sensitivity>0.80). This model also showed the best regression (R{sup 2}=0.85) and sensitivity (average>0.70) for new compounds in the AD but not present in the training set. However, no single optimal model exists and, thus, it would be wise a case-by-case assessment. Yet, integrating the wealth of information from multiple models remains the winner approach. - Highlights: • REACH encourages the use of in silico methods in the assessment of chemicals safety. • The performances of nine BCF models were evaluated on a benchmark database of 851 chemicals. • We compared the models on the basis of both regression and classification performance. • Statistics on chemicals out of the training set and/or within the applicability domain were compiled. • The results show that QSAR models are useful as weight-of-evidence in support to other methods.« less

ELASTIC NET FOR COX’S PROPORTIONAL HAZARDS MODEL WITH A SOLUTION PATH ALGORITHM

PubMed Central

Wu, Yichao

2012-01-01

For least squares regression, Efron et al. (2004) proposed an efficient solution path algorithm, the least angle regression (LAR). They showed that a slight modification of the LAR leads to the whole LASSO solution path. Both the LAR and LASSO solution paths are piecewise linear. Recently Wu (2011) extended the LAR to generalized linear models and the quasi-likelihood method. In this work we extend the LAR further to handle Cox’s proportional hazards model. The goal is to develop a solution path algorithm for the elastic net penalty (Zou and Hastie (2005)) in Cox’s proportional hazards model. This goal is achieved in two steps. First we extend the LAR to optimizing the log partial likelihood plus a fixed small ridge term. Then we define a path modification, which leads to the solution path of the elastic net regularized log partial likelihood. Our solution path is exact and piecewise determined by ordinary differential equation systems. PMID:23226932

Optimizing landslide susceptibility zonation: Effects of DEM spatial resolution and slope unit delineation on logistic regression models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schlögel, R.; Marchesini, I.; Alvioli, M.; Reichenbach, P.; Rossi, M.; Malet, J.-P.

2018-01-01

We perform landslide susceptibility zonation with slope units using three digital elevation models (DEMs) of varying spatial resolution of the Ubaye Valley (South French Alps). In so doing, we applied a recently developed algorithm automating slope unit delineation, given a number of parameters, in order to optimize simultaneously the partitioning of the terrain and the performance of a logistic regression susceptibility model. The method allowed us to obtain optimal slope units for each available DEM spatial resolution. For each resolution, we studied the susceptibility model performance by analyzing in detail the relevance of the conditioning variables. The analysis is based on landslide morphology data, considering either the whole landslide or only the source area outline as inputs. The procedure allowed us to select the most useful information, in terms of DEM spatial resolution, thematic variables and landslide inventory, in order to obtain the most reliable slope unit-based landslide susceptibility assessment.

Improving Riverine Constituent Concentration and Flux Estimation by Accounting for Antecedent Discharge Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Q.; Ball, W. P.

2016-12-01

Regression-based approaches are often employed to estimate riverine constituent concentrations and fluxes based on typically sparse concentration observations. One such approach is the WRTDS ("Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season") method, which has been shown to provide more accurate estimates than prior approaches. Centered on WRTDS, this work was aimed at developing improved models for constituent concentration and flux estimation by accounting for antecedent discharge conditions. Twelve modified models were developed and tested, each of which contains one additional variable to represent antecedent conditions. High-resolution ( daily) data at nine monitoring sites were used to evaluate the relative merits of the models for estimation of six constituents - chloride (Cl), nitrate-plus-nitrite (NOx), total Kjeldahl nitrogen (TKN), total phosphorus (TP), soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP), and suspended sediment (SS). For each site-constituent combination, 30 concentration subsets were generated from the original data through Monte Carlo sub-sampling and then used to evaluate model performance. For the sub-sampling, three sampling strategies were adopted: (A) 1 random sample each month (12/year), (B) 12 random monthly samples plus additional 8 random samples per year (20/year), and (C) 12 regular (non-storm) and 8 storm samples per year (20/year). The modified models show general improvement over the original model under all three sampling strategies. Major improvements were achieved for NOx by the long-term flow-anomaly model and for Cl by the ADF (average discounted flow) model and the short-term flow-anomaly model. Moderate improvements were achieved for SS, TP, and TKN by the ADF model. By contrast, no such achievement was achieved for SRP by any proposed model. In terms of sampling strategy, performance of all models was generally best using strategy C and worst using strategy A, and especially so for SS, TP, and SRP, confirming the value of routinely collecting storm-flow samples. Overall, this work provides a comprehensive set of statistical evidence for supporting the incorporation of antecedent discharge conditions into WRTDS for constituent concentration and flux estimation, thereby combining the advantages of two recent developments in water quality modeling.

Deciphering factors controlling groundwater arsenic spatial variability in Bangladesh

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tan, Z.; Yang, Q.; Zheng, C.; Zheng, Y.

2017-12-01

Elevated concentrations of geogenic arsenic in groundwater have been found in many countries to exceed 10 μg/L, the WHO's guideline value for drinking water. A common yet unexplained characteristic of groundwater arsenic spatial distribution is the extensive variability at various spatial scales. This study investigates factors influencing the spatial variability of groundwater arsenic in Bangladesh to improve the accuracy of models predicting arsenic exceedance rate spatially. A novel boosted regression tree method is used to establish a weak-learning ensemble model, which is compared to a linear model using a conventional stepwise logistic regression method. The boosted regression tree models offer the advantage of parametric interaction when big datasets are analyzed in comparison to the logistic regression. The point data set (n=3,538) of groundwater hydrochemistry with 19 parameters was obtained by the British Geological Survey in 2001. The spatial data sets of geological parameters (n=13) were from the Consortium for Spatial Information, Technical University of Denmark, University of East Anglia and the FAO, while the soil parameters (n=42) were from the Harmonized World Soil Database. The aforementioned parameters were regressed to categorical groundwater arsenic concentrations below or above three thresholds: 5 μg/L, 10 μg/L and 50 μg/L to identify respective controlling factors. Boosted regression tree method outperformed logistic regression methods in all three threshold levels in terms of accuracy, specificity and sensitivity, resulting in an improvement of spatial distribution map of probability of groundwater arsenic exceeding all three thresholds when compared to disjunctive-kriging interpolated spatial arsenic map using the same groundwater arsenic dataset. Boosted regression tree models also show that the most important controlling factors of groundwater arsenic distribution include groundwater iron content and well depth for all three thresholds. The probability of a well with iron content higher than 5mg/L to contain greater than 5 μg/L, 10 μg/L and 50 μg/L As is estimated to be more than 91%, 85% and 51%, respectively, while the probability of a well from depth more than 160m to contain more than 5 μg/L, 10 μg/L and 50 μg/L As is estimated to be less than 38%, 25% and 14%, respectively.

Bio-inspired adaptive feedback error learning architecture for motor control.

PubMed

Tolu, Silvia; Vanegas, Mauricio; Luque, Niceto R; Garrido, Jesús A; Ros, Eduardo

2012-10-01

This study proposes an adaptive control architecture based on an accurate regression method called Locally Weighted Projection Regression (LWPR) and on a bio-inspired module, such as a cerebellar-like engine. This hybrid architecture takes full advantage of the machine learning module (LWPR kernel) to abstract an optimized representation of the sensorimotor space while the cerebellar component integrates this to generate corrective terms in the framework of a control task. Furthermore, we illustrate how the use of a simple adaptive error feedback term allows to use the proposed architecture even in the absence of an accurate analytic reference model. The presented approach achieves an accurate control with low gain corrective terms (for compliant control schemes). We evaluate the contribution of the different components of the proposed scheme comparing the obtained performance with alternative approaches. Then, we show that the presented architecture can be used for accurate manipulation of different objects when their physical properties are not directly known by the controller. We evaluate how the scheme scales for simulated plants of high Degrees of Freedom (7-DOFs).

Characterizing the spatial distribution of ambient ultrafine particles in Toronto, Canada: A land use regression model.

PubMed

Weichenthal, Scott; Van Ryswyk, Keith; Goldstein, Alon; Shekarrizfard, Maryam; Hatzopoulou, Marianne

2016-01-01

Exposure models are needed to evaluate the chronic health effects of ambient ultrafine particles (<0.1 μm) (UFPs). We developed a land use regression model for ambient UFPs in Toronto, Canada using mobile monitoring data collected during summer/winter 2010-2011. In total, 405 road segments were included in the analysis. The final model explained 67% of the spatial variation in mean UFPs and included terms for the logarithm of distances to highways, major roads, the central business district, Pearson airport, and bus routes as well as variables for the number of on-street trees, parks, open space, and the length of bus routes within a 100 m buffer. There was no systematic difference between measured and predicted values when the model was evaluated in an external dataset, although the R(2) value decreased (R(2) = 50%). This model will be used to evaluate the chronic health effects of UFPs using population-based cohorts in the Toronto area. Crown Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Breast arterial calcification is associated with reproductive factors in asymptomatic postmenopausal women.

PubMed

Bielak, Lawrence F; Whaley, Dana H; Sheedy, Patrick F; Peyser, Patricia A

2010-09-01

The etiology of breast arterial calcification (BAC) is not well understood. We examined reproductive history and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factor associations with the presence of detectable BAC in asymptomatic postmenopausal women. Reproductive history and CVD risk factors were obtained in 240 asymptomatic postmenopausal women from a community-based research study who had a screening mammogram within 2 years of their participation in the study. The mammograms were reviewed for the presence of detectable BAC. Age-adjusted logistic regression models were fit to assess the association between each risk factor and the presence of BAC. Multiple variable logistic regression models were used to identify the most parsimonious model for the presence of BAC. The prevalence of BAC increased with increased age (p < 0.0001). The most parsimonious logistic regression model for BAC presence included age at time of examination, increased parity (p = 0.01), earlier age at first birth (p = 0.002), weight, and an age-by-weight interaction term (p = 0.004). Older women with a smaller body size had a higher probability of having BAC than women of the same age with a larger body size. The presence or absence of BAC at mammography may provide an assessment of a postmenopausal woman's lifetime estrogen exposure and indicate women who could be at risk for hormonally related conditions.

Polynomial order selection in random regression models via penalizing adaptively the likelihood.

PubMed

Corrales, J D; Munilla, S; Cantet, R J C

2015-08-01

Orthogonal Legendre polynomials (LP) are used to model the shape of additive genetic and permanent environmental effects in random regression models (RRM). Frequently, the Akaike (AIC) and the Bayesian (BIC) information criteria are employed to select LP order. However, it has been theoretically shown that neither AIC nor BIC is simultaneously optimal in terms of consistency and efficiency. Thus, the goal was to introduce a method, 'penalizing adaptively the likelihood' (PAL), as a criterion to select LP order in RRM. Four simulated data sets and real data (60,513 records, 6675 Colombian Holstein cows) were employed. Nested models were fitted to the data, and AIC, BIC and PAL were calculated for all of them. Results showed that PAL and BIC identified with probability of one the true LP order for the additive genetic and permanent environmental effects, but AIC tended to favour over parameterized models. Conversely, when the true model was unknown, PAL selected the best model with higher probability than AIC. In the latter case, BIC never favoured the best model. To summarize, PAL selected a correct model order regardless of whether the 'true' model was within the set of candidates. © 2015 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Estimating peak discharges, flood volumes, and hydrograph shapes of small ungaged urban streams in Ohio

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sherwood, J.M.

1986-01-01

Methods are presented for estimating peak discharges, flood volumes and hydrograph shapes of small (less than 5 sq mi) urban streams in Ohio. Examples of how to use the various regression equations and estimating techniques also are presented. Multiple-regression equations were developed for estimating peak discharges having recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 years. The significant independent variables affecting peak discharge are drainage area, main-channel slope, average basin-elevation index, and basin-development factor. Standard errors of regression and prediction for the peak discharge equations range from +/-37% to +/-41%. An equation also was developed to estimate the flood volume of a given peak discharge. Peak discharge, drainage area, main-channel slope, and basin-development factor were found to be the significant independent variables affecting flood volumes for given peak discharges. The standard error of regression for the volume equation is +/-52%. A technique is described for estimating the shape of a runoff hydrograph by applying a specific peak discharge and the estimated lagtime to a dimensionless hydrograph. An equation for estimating the lagtime of a basin was developed. Two variables--main-channel length divided by the square root of the main-channel slope and basin-development factor--have a significant effect on basin lagtime. The standard error of regression for the lagtime equation is +/-48%. The data base for the study was established by collecting rainfall-runoff data at 30 basins distributed throughout several metropolitan areas of Ohio. Five to eight years of data were collected at a 5-min record interval. The USGS rainfall-runoff model A634 was calibrated for each site. The calibrated models were used in conjunction with long-term rainfall records to generate a long-term streamflow record for each site. Each annual peak-discharge record was fitted to a Log-Pearson Type III frequency curve. Multiple-regression techniques were then used to analyze the peak discharge data as a function of the basin characteristics of the 30 sites. (Author 's abstract)

Retention of community college students in online courses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krajewski, Sarah

The issue of attrition in online courses at higher learning institutions remains a high priority in the United States. A recent rapid growth of online courses at community colleges has been instigated by student demand, as they meet the time constraints many nontraditional community college students have as a result of the need to work and care for dependents. Failure in an online course can cause students to become frustrated with the college experience, financially burdened, or to even give up and leave college. Attrition could be avoided by proper guidance of who is best suited for online courses. This study examined factors related to retention (i.e., course completion) and success (i.e., receiving a C or better) in an online biology course at a community college in the Midwest by operationalizing student characteristics (age, race, gender), student skills (whether or not the student met the criteria to be placed in an AFP course), and external factors (Pell recipient, full/part time status, first term) from the persistence model developed by Rovai. Internal factors from this model were not included in this study. Both univariate analyses and multivariate logistic regression were used to analyze the variables. Results suggest that race and Pell recipient were both predictive of course completion on univariate analyses. However, multivariate analyses showed that age, race, academic load and first term were predictive of completion and Pell recipient was no longer predictive. The univariate results for the C or better showed that age, race, Pell recipient, academic load, and meeting AFP criteria were predictive of success. Multivariate analyses showed that only age, race, and Pell recipient were significant predictors of success. Both regression models explained very little (<15%) of the variability within the outcome variables of retention and success. Therefore, although significant predictors were identified for course completion and retention, there are still many factors that remain unaccounted for in both regression models. Further research into the operationalization of Rovai's model, including internal factors, to predict completion and success is necessary.

Satellite-based high-resolution PM2.5 estimation over the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region of China using an improved geographically and temporally weighted regression model.

PubMed

He, Qingqing; Huang, Bo

2018-05-01

Ground fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations at high spatial resolution are substantially required for determining the population exposure to PM2.5 over densely populated urban areas. However, most studies for China have generated PM2.5 estimations at a coarse resolution (≥10 km) due to the limitation of satellite aerosol optical depth (AOD) product in spatial resolution. In this study, the 3 km AOD data fused using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Collection 6 AOD products were employed to estimate the ground PM2.5 concentrations over the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region of China from January 2013 to December 2015. An improved geographically and temporally weighted regression (iGTWR) model incorporating seasonal characteristics within the data was developed, which achieved comparable performance to the standard GTWR model for the days with paired PM 2.5 - AOD samples (Cross-validation (CV) R 2  = 0.82) and showed better predictive power for the days without PM 2.5 - AOD pairs (the R 2 increased from 0.24 to 0.46 in CV). Both iGTWR and GTWR (CV R 2  = 0.84) significantly outperformed the daily geographically weighted regression model (CV R 2  = 0.66). Also, the fused 3 km AODs improved data availability and presented more spatial gradients, thereby enhancing model performance compared with the MODIS original 3/10 km AOD product. As a result, ground PM2.5 concentrations at higher resolution were well represented, allowing, e.g., short-term pollution events and long-term PM2.5 trend to be identified, which, in turn, indicated that concerns about air pollution in the BTH region are justified despite its decreasing trend from 2013 to 2015. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Factors affecting the entry of for-profit providers into a price regulated market for formal long-term care services: a case study from Japan.

PubMed

Tokunaga, Mutsumi; Hashimoto, Hideki

2013-01-01

While the distinct behaviors of for-profit and non-profit providers in the healthcare market have been compared in the economic literature, their choices regarding market entry and exit have only recently been debated. Since 2000, when public Long-Term Care Insurance was introduced in Japan, for-profit providers have been able to provide formal long-term homecare services. The aim of this study is to determine which factors have affected market entry of for-profit providers under price regulation and in competition with existing non-profit providers. We used nation-wide panel data from 2002 to 2010, aggregated at the level of local public insurers (n = 1557), a basic area unit of service provision. The number of for-profit providers per elderly population in the area unit was regressed against factors related to local demand and service costs using first-difference linear regression, a fixed effects model, and Tobit regression for robustness checking. Results showed that demand (the number of eligible care recipients) and cost factors (population density and minimum wage) significantly influenced for-profit providers' choice of market entry. These findings indicate that for-profit providers will strategically choose a local market for maximizing profit. We believe that price regulation should be redesigned to incorporate quality of care and market conditions, regardless of the profit status of the providers, to ensure equal access to efficient delivery of long-term care across all regions. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Correlation of Noncancer Benchmark Doses in Short- and Long-Term Rodent Bioassays.

PubMed

Kratchman, Jessica; Wang, Bing; Fox, John; Gray, George

2018-05-01

This study investigated whether, in the absence of chronic noncancer toxicity data, short-term noncancer toxicity data can be used to predict chronic toxicity effect levels by focusing on the dose-response relationship instead of a critical effect. Data from National Toxicology Program (NTP) technical reports have been extracted and modeled using the Environmental Protection Agency's Benchmark Dose Software. Best-fit, minimum benchmark dose (BMD), and benchmark dose lower limits (BMDLs) have been modeled for all NTP pathologist identified significant nonneoplastic lesions, final mean body weight, and mean organ weight of 41 chemicals tested by NTP between 2000 and 2012. Models were then developed at the chemical level using orthogonal regression techniques to predict chronic (two years) noncancer health effect levels using the results of the short-term (three months) toxicity data. The findings indicate that short-term animal studies may reasonably provide a quantitative estimate of a chronic BMD or BMDL. This can allow for faster development of human health toxicity values for risk assessment for chemicals that lack chronic toxicity data. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

The association between short interpregnancy interval and preterm birth in Louisiana: a comparison of methods.

PubMed

Howard, Elizabeth J; Harville, Emily; Kissinger, Patricia; Xiong, Xu

2013-07-01

There is growing interest in the application of propensity scores (PS) in epidemiologic studies, especially within the field of reproductive epidemiology. This retrospective cohort study assesses the impact of a short interpregnancy interval (IPI) on preterm birth and compares the results of the conventional logistic regression analysis with analyses utilizing a PS. The study included 96,378 singleton infants from Louisiana birth certificate data (1995-2007). Five regression models designed for methods comparison are presented. Ten percent (10.17 %) of all births were preterm; 26.83 % of births were from a short IPI. The PS-adjusted model produced a more conservative estimate of the exposure variable compared to the conventional logistic regression method (β-coefficient: 0.21 vs. 0.43), as well as a smaller standard error (0.024 vs. 0.028), odds ratio and 95 % confidence intervals [1.15 (1.09, 1.20) vs. 1.23 (1.17, 1.30)]. The inclusion of more covariate and interaction terms in the PS did not change the estimates of the exposure variable. This analysis indicates that PS-adjusted regression may be appropriate for validation of conventional methods in a large dataset with a fairly common outcome. PS's may be beneficial in producing more precise estimates, especially for models with many confounders and effect modifiers and where conventional adjustment with logistic regression is unsatisfactory. Short intervals between pregnancies are associated with preterm birth in this population, according to either technique. Birth spacing is an issue that women have some control over. Educational interventions, including birth control, should be applied during prenatal visits and following delivery.

Seasonality in trauma admissions - Are daylight and weather variables better predictors than general cyclic effects?

PubMed

Røislien, Jo; Søvik, Signe; Eken, Torsten

2018-01-01

Trauma is a leading global cause of death, and predicting the burden of trauma admissions is vital for good planning of trauma care. Seasonality in trauma admissions has been found in several studies. Seasonal fluctuations in daylight hours, temperature and weather affect social and cultural practices but also individual neuroendocrine rhythms that may ultimately modify behaviour and potentially predispose to trauma. The aim of the present study was to explore to what extent the observed seasonality in daily trauma admissions could be explained by changes in daylight and weather variables throughout the year. Retrospective registry study on trauma admissions in the 10-year period 2001-2010 at Oslo University Hospital, Ullevål, Norway, where the amount of daylight varies from less than 6 hours to almost 19 hours per day throughout the year. Daily number of admissions was analysed by fitting non-linear Poisson time series regression models, simultaneously adjusting for several layers of temporal patterns, including a non-linear long-term trend and both seasonal and weekly cyclic effects. Five daylight and weather variables were explored, including hours of daylight and amount of precipitation. Models were compared using Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC). A regression model including daylight and weather variables significantly outperformed a traditional seasonality model in terms of AIC. A cyclic week effect was significant in all models. Daylight and weather variables are better predictors of seasonality in daily trauma admissions than mere information on day-of-year.

Multivariate adaptive regression splines analysis to predict biomarkers of spontaneous preterm birth.

PubMed

Menon, Ramkumar; Bhat, Geeta; Saade, George R; Spratt, Heidi

2014-04-01

To develop classification models of demographic/clinical factors and biomarker data from spontaneous preterm birth in African Americans and Caucasians. Secondary analysis of biomarker data using multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), a supervised machine learning algorithm method. Analysis of data on 36 biomarkers from 191 women was reduced by MARS to develop predictive models for preterm birth in African Americans and Caucasians. Maternal plasma, cord plasma collected at admission for preterm or term labor and amniotic fluid at delivery. Data were partitioned into training and testing sets. Variable importance, a relative indicator (0-100%) and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) characterized results. Multivariate adaptive regression splines generated models for combined and racially stratified biomarker data. Clinical and demographic data did not contribute to the model. Racial stratification of data produced distinct models in all three compartments. In African Americans maternal plasma samples IL-1RA, TNF-α, angiopoietin 2, TNFRI, IL-5, MIP1α, IL-1β and TGF-α modeled preterm birth (AUC train: 0.98, AUC test: 0.86). In Caucasians TNFR1, ICAM-1 and IL-1RA contributed to the model (AUC train: 0.84, AUC test: 0.68). African Americans cord plasma samples produced IL-12P70, IL-8 (AUC train: 0.82, AUC test: 0.66). Cord plasma in Caucasians modeled IGFII, PDGFBB, TGF-β1 , IL-12P70, and TIMP1 (AUC train: 0.99, AUC test: 0.82). Amniotic fluid in African Americans modeled FasL, TNFRII, RANTES, KGF, IGFI (AUC train: 0.95, AUC test: 0.89) and in Caucasians, TNF-α, MCP3, TGF-β3 , TNFR1 and angiopoietin 2 (AUC train: 0.94 AUC test: 0.79). Multivariate adaptive regression splines models multiple biomarkers associated with preterm birth and demonstrated racial disparity. © 2014 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Response Surface Modeling Tolerance and Inference Error Risk Specifications: Proposed Industry Standards

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DeLoach, Richard

2012-01-01

This paper reviews the derivation of an equation for scaling response surface modeling experiments. The equation represents the smallest number of data points required to fit a linear regression polynomial so as to achieve certain specified model adequacy criteria. Specific criteria are proposed which simplify an otherwise rather complex equation, generating a practical rule of thumb for the minimum volume of data required to adequately fit a polynomial with a specified number of terms in the model. This equation and the simplified rule of thumb it produces can be applied to minimize the cost of wind tunnel testing.

The concept of psychological regression: metaphors, mapping, Queen Square, and Tavistock Square.

PubMed

Mercer, Jean

2011-05-01

The term "regression" refers to events in which an individual changes from his or her present level of maturity and regains mental and behavioral characteristics shown at an earlier point in development. This definition has remained constant for over a century, but the implications of the concept have changed systematically from a perspective in which regression was considered pathological, to a current view in which regression may be seen as a positive step in psychotherapy or as a part of normal development. The concept of regression, famously employed by Sigmund Freud and others in his circle, derived from ideas suggested by Herbert Spencer and by John Hughlings Jackson. By the 1940s and '50s, the regression concept was applied by Winnicott and others in treatment of disturbed children and in adult psychotherapy. In addition, behavioral regression came to be seen as a part of a normal developmental trajectory, with a focus on expectable variability. The present article examines historical changes in the regression concept in terms of mapping to biomedical or other metaphors, in terms of a movement from earlier nativism toward an increased environmentalism in psychology, and with respect to other historical factors such as wartime events. The role of dominant metaphors in shifting perspectives on regression is described.

Spatial measurement error and correction by spatial SIMEX in linear regression models when using predicted air pollution exposures.

PubMed

Alexeeff, Stacey E; Carroll, Raymond J; Coull, Brent

2016-04-01

Spatial modeling of air pollution exposures is widespread in air pollution epidemiology research as a way to improve exposure assessment. However, there are key sources of exposure model uncertainty when air pollution is modeled, including estimation error and model misspecification. We examine the use of predicted air pollution levels in linear health effect models under a measurement error framework. For the prediction of air pollution exposures, we consider a universal Kriging framework, which may include land-use regression terms in the mean function and a spatial covariance structure for the residuals. We derive the bias induced by estimation error and by model misspecification in the exposure model, and we find that a misspecified exposure model can induce asymptotic bias in the effect estimate of air pollution on health. We propose a new spatial simulation extrapolation (SIMEX) procedure, and we demonstrate that the procedure has good performance in correcting this asymptotic bias. We illustrate spatial SIMEX in a study of air pollution and birthweight in Massachusetts. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Comparison of Allogeneic and Syngeneic Rat Glioma Models by Using MRI and Histopathologic Evaluation.

PubMed

Biasibetti, Elena; Valazza, Alberto; Capucchio, Maria T; Annovazzi, Laura; Battaglia, Luigi; Chirio, Daniela; Gallarate, Marina; Mellai, Marta; Muntoni, Elisabetta; Peira, Elena; Riganti, Chiara; Schiffer, Davide; Panciani, Pierpaolo; Lanotte, Michele

2017-03-01

Research in neurooncology traditionally requires appropriate in vivo animal models, on which therapeutic strategies are tested before human trials are designed and proceed. Several reproducible animal experimental models, in which human physiologic conditions can be mimicked, are available for studying glioblastoma multiforme. In an ideal rat model, the tumor is of glial origin, grows in predictable and reproducible patterns, closely resembles human gliomas histopathologically, and is weakly or nonimmunogenic. In the current study, we used MRI and histopathologic evaluation to compare the most widely used allogeneic rat glioma model, C6-Wistar, with the F98-Fischer syngeneic rat glioma model in terms of percentage tumor growth or regression and growth rate. In vivo MRI demonstrated considerable variation in tumor volume and frequency between the 2 rat models despite the same stereotactic implantation technique. Faster and more reproducible glioma growth occurred in the immunoresponsive environment of the F98-Fischer model, because the immune response is minimized toward syngeneic cells. The marked inability of the C6-Wistar allogeneic system to generate a reproducible model and the episodes of spontaneous tumor regression with this system may have been due to the increased humoral and cellular immune responses after tumor implantation.

Association of modeled long-term personal exposure to ultrafine particles with inflammatory and coagulation biomarkers.

PubMed

Lane, Kevin J; Levy, Jonathan I; Scammell, Madeleine K; Peters, Junenette L; Patton, Allison P; Reisner, Ellin; Lowe, Lydia; Zamore, Wig; Durant, John L; Brugge, Doug

2016-01-01

Long-term exposure to fine particulate matter has been linked to cardiovascular disease and systemic inflammatory responses; however, evidence is limited regarding the effects of long-term exposure to ultrafine particulate matter (UFP, <100nm). We used a cross-sectional study design to examine the association of long-term exposure to near-highway UFP with measures of systemic inflammation and coagulation. We analyzed blood samples from 408 individuals aged 40-91years living in three near-highway and three urban background areas in and near Boston, Massachusetts. We conducted mobile monitoring of particle number concentration (PNC) in each area, and used the data to develop and validate highly resolved spatiotemporal (hourly, 20m) PNC regression models. These models were linked with participant time-activity data to determine individual time-activity adjusted (TAA) annual average PNC exposures. Multivariable regression modeling and stratification were used to assess the association between TAA-PNC and single peripheral blood measures of high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP), interleukin-6 (IL-6), tumor-necrosis factor alpha receptor II (TNFRII) and fibrinogen. After adjusting for age, sex, education, body mass index, smoking and race/ethnicity, an interquartile-range (10,000particles/cm(3)) increase in TAA-PNC had a positive non-significant association with a 14.0% (95% CI: -4.6%, 36.2%) positive difference in hsCRP, an 8.9% (95% CI: -0.4%, 10.9%) positive difference in IL-6, and a 5.1% (95% CI: -0.4%, 10.9%) positive difference in TNFRII. Stratification by race/ethnicity revealed that TAA-PNC had larger effect estimates for all three inflammatory markers and was significantly associated with hsCRP and TNFRII in white non-Hispanic, but not East Asian participants. Fibrinogen had a negative non-significant association with TAA-PNC. Our findings suggest an association between annual average near-highway TAA-PNC and subclinical inflammatory markers of CVD risk. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

A Systematic Review and Meta-Regression Analysis of Lung Cancer Risk and Inorganic Arsenic in Drinking Water.

PubMed

Lamm, Steven H; Ferdosi, Hamid; Dissen, Elisabeth K; Li, Ji; Ahn, Jaeil

2015-12-07

High levels (> 200 µg/L) of inorganic arsenic in drinking water are known to be a cause of human lung cancer, but the evidence at lower levels is uncertain. We have sought the epidemiological studies that have examined the dose-response relationship between arsenic levels in drinking water and the risk of lung cancer over a range that includes both high and low levels of arsenic. Regression analysis, based on six studies identified from an electronic search, examined the relationship between the log of the relative risk and the log of the arsenic exposure over a range of 1-1000 µg/L. The best-fitting continuous meta-regression model was sought and found to be a no-constant linear-quadratic analysis where both the risk and the exposure had been logarithmically transformed. This yielded both a statistically significant positive coefficient for the quadratic term and a statistically significant negative coefficient for the linear term. Sub-analyses by study design yielded results that were similar for both ecological studies and non-ecological studies. Statistically significant X-intercepts consistently found no increased level of risk at approximately 100-150 µg/L arsenic.

Visual tracking using objectness-bounding box regression and correlation filters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mbelwa, Jimmy T.; Zhao, Qingjie; Lu, Yao; Wang, Fasheng; Mbise, Mercy

2018-03-01

Visual tracking is a fundamental problem in computer vision with extensive application domains in surveillance and intelligent systems. Recently, correlation filter-based tracking methods have shown a great achievement in terms of robustness, accuracy, and speed. However, such methods have a problem of dealing with fast motion (FM), motion blur (MB), illumination variation (IV), and drifting caused by occlusion (OCC). To solve this problem, a tracking method that integrates objectness-bounding box regression (O-BBR) model and a scheme based on kernelized correlation filter (KCF) is proposed. The scheme based on KCF is used to improve the tracking performance of FM and MB. For handling drift problem caused by OCC and IV, we propose objectness proposals trained in bounding box regression as prior knowledge to provide candidates and background suppression. Finally, scheme KCF as a base tracker and O-BBR are fused to obtain a state of a target object. Extensive experimental comparisons of the developed tracking method with other state-of-the-art trackers are performed on some of the challenging video sequences. Experimental comparison results show that our proposed tracking method outperforms other state-of-the-art tracking methods in terms of effectiveness, accuracy, and robustness.

A Systematic Review and Meta-Regression Analysis of Lung Cancer Risk and Inorganic Arsenic in Drinking Water

PubMed Central

Lamm, Steven H.; Ferdosi, Hamid; Dissen, Elisabeth K.; Li, Ji; Ahn, Jaeil

2015-01-01

High levels (> 200 µg/L) of inorganic arsenic in drinking water are known to be a cause of human lung cancer, but the evidence at lower levels is uncertain. We have sought the epidemiological studies that have examined the dose-response relationship between arsenic levels in drinking water and the risk of lung cancer over a range that includes both high and low levels of arsenic. Regression analysis, based on six studies identified from an electronic search, examined the relationship between the log of the relative risk and the log of the arsenic exposure over a range of 1–1000 µg/L. The best-fitting continuous meta-regression model was sought and found to be a no-constant linear-quadratic analysis where both the risk and the exposure had been logarithmically transformed. This yielded both a statistically significant positive coefficient for the quadratic term and a statistically significant negative coefficient for the linear term. Sub-analyses by study design yielded results that were similar for both ecological studies and non-ecological studies. Statistically significant X-intercepts consistently found no increased level of risk at approximately 100–150 µg/L arsenic. PMID:26690190

Forecasting space weather: Can new econometric methods improve accuracy?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reikard, Gordon

2011-06-01

Space weather forecasts are currently used in areas ranging from navigation and communication to electric power system operations. The relevant forecast horizons can range from as little as 24 h to several days. This paper analyzes the predictability of two major space weather measures using new time series methods, many of them derived from econometrics. The data sets are the A p geomagnetic index and the solar radio flux at 10.7 cm. The methods tested include nonlinear regressions, neural networks, frequency domain algorithms, GARCH models (which utilize the residual variance), state transition models, and models that combine elements of several techniques. While combined models are complex, they can be programmed using modern statistical software. The data frequency is daily, and forecasting experiments are run over horizons ranging from 1 to 7 days. Two major conclusions stand out. First, the frequency domain method forecasts the A p index more accurately than any time domain model, including both regressions and neural networks. This finding is very robust, and holds for all forecast horizons. Combining the frequency domain method with other techniques yields a further small improvement in accuracy. Second, the neural network forecasts the solar flux more accurately than any other method, although at short horizons (2 days or less) the regression and net yield similar results. The neural net does best when it includes measures of the long-term component in the data.

Long-term pediatric skin eruption-related hospitalizations in offspring conceived via fertility treatment.

PubMed

Krieger, Yuval; Wainstock, Tamar; Sheiner, Eyal; Harlev, Avi; Landau, Daniella; Horev, Amir; Bogdanov-Berezovsky, Alexander; Walfisch, Asnat

2018-03-01

Although concerns have been raised regarding the long-term health risks of offspring conceived following fertility treatments, limited information is available regarding their health status beyond the neonatal period. We aimed to evaluate the risk of long-term eruptive dermatological morbidity among children born following fertility treatments as compared to those conceived spontaneously. A population-based cohort study was conducted, including all singleton deliveries occurring between the years 1991 and 2014 at a single tertiary medical center. Fetuses with congenital malformations and multiple gestations were excluded. Children delivered following fertility treatment pregnancies and spontaneous pregnancies were compared. Hospitalizations of the offspring up to the age of 18 years involving cutaneous eruptions were evaluated. A Kaplan-Meier survival curve was used to compare cumulative morbidity incidence and a Cox regression model to control for confounders. During the study period, 242,187 singleton deliveries met the inclusion criteria, 1.8% of which were following fertility treatments (n = 4324). Eruptive dermatological morbidity of the offspring up to the age of 18 years was significantly more common in the fertility treatment group (1.5%) as compared to spontaneous pregnancies (1.1%; P = 0.023). The Kaplan-Meier survival curve demonstrated a significantly higher cumulative incidence of eruptive dermatological morbidity following fertility treatments (log-rank P = 0.007). Using the Cox regression model, while controlling for multiple confounders, fertility treatment was noted as an independent risk factor for long-term pediatric eruptive dermatological morbidity (adjusted HR = 1.43, CI 1.12-1.83, P = 0.004). Singletons conceived via fertility treatments appear to be at an increased risk for long-term eruptive dermatological morbidity. © 2018 The International Society of Dermatology.

Integration of measurements with atmospheric dispersion models: Source term estimation for dispersal of (239)Pu due to non-nuclear detonation of high explosive

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Edwards, L. L.; Harvey, T. F.; Freis, R. P.; Pitovranov, S. E.; Chernokozhin, E. V.

1992-10-01

The accuracy associated with assessing the environmental consequences of an accidental release of radioactivity is highly dependent on our knowledge of the source term characteristics and, in the case when the radioactivity is condensed on particles, the particle size distribution, all of which are generally poorly known. This paper reports on the development of a numerical technique that integrates the radiological measurements with atmospheric dispersion modeling. This results in a more accurate particle-size distribution and particle injection height estimation when compared with measurements of high explosive dispersal of (239)Pu. The estimation model is based on a non-linear least squares regression scheme coupled with the ARAC three-dimensional atmospheric dispersion models. The viability of the approach is evaluated by estimation of ADPIC model input parameters such as the ADPIC particle size mean aerodynamic diameter, the geometric standard deviation, and largest size. Additionally we estimate an optimal 'coupling coefficient' between the particles and an explosive cloud rise model. The experimental data are taken from the Clean Slate 1 field experiment conducted during 1963 at the Tonopah Test Range in Nevada. The regression technique optimizes the agreement between the measured and model predicted concentrations of (239)Pu by varying the model input parameters within their respective ranges of uncertainties. The technique generally estimated the measured concentrations within a factor of 1.5, with the worst estimate being within a factor of 5, very good in view of the complexity of the concentration measurements, the uncertainties associated with the meteorological data, and the limitations of the models. The best fit also suggest a smaller mean diameter and a smaller geometric standard deviation on the particle size as well as a slightly weaker particle to cloud coupling than previously reported.

A New Navigation Satellite Clock Bias Prediction Method Based on Modified Clock-bias Quadratic Polynomial Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Y. P.; Lu, Z. P.; Sun, D. S.; Wang, N.

2016-01-01

In order to better express the characteristics of satellite clock bias (SCB) and improve SCB prediction precision, this paper proposed a new SCB prediction model which can take physical characteristics of space-borne atomic clock, the cyclic variation, and random part of SCB into consideration. First, the new model employs a quadratic polynomial model with periodic items to fit and extract the trend term and cyclic term of SCB; then based on the characteristics of fitting residuals, a time series ARIMA ~(Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average) model is used to model the residuals; eventually, the results from the two models are combined to obtain final SCB prediction values. At last, this paper uses precise SCB data from IGS (International GNSS Service) to conduct prediction tests, and the results show that the proposed model is effective and has better prediction performance compared with the quadratic polynomial model, grey model, and ARIMA model. In addition, the new method can also overcome the insufficiency of the ARIMA model in model recognition and order determination.

Association between air pollution and rhinitis incidence in two European cohorts.

PubMed

Burte, Emilie; Leynaert, Bénédicte; Bono, Roberto; Brunekreef, Bert; Bousquet, Jean; Carsin, Anne-Elie; De Hoogh, Kees; Forsberg, Bertil; Gormand, Frédéric; Heinrich, Joachim; Just, Jocelyne; Marcon, Alessandro; Künzli, Nino; Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark; Pin, Isabelle; Stempfelet, Morgane; Sunyer, Jordi; Villani, Simona; Siroux, Valérie; Jarvis, Deborah; Nadif, Rachel; Jacquemin, Bénédicte

2018-06-01

The association between air pollution and rhinitis is not well established. The aim of this longitudinal analysis was to study the association between modeled air pollution at the subjects' home addresses and self-reported incidence of rhinitis. We used data from 1533 adults from two multicentre cohorts' studies (EGEA and ECRHS). Rhinitis incidence was defined as reporting rhinitis at the second follow-up (2011 to 2013) but not at the first follow-up (2000 to 2007). Annual exposure to NO 2 , PM 10 and PM 2.5 at the participants' home addresses was estimated using land-use regression models developed by the ESCAPE project for the 2009-2010 period. Incidence rate ratios (IRR) were computed using Poisson regression. Pooled analysis, analyses by city and meta-regression testing for heterogeneity were carried out. No association between long-term air pollution exposure and incidence of rhinitis was found (adjusted IRR (aIRR) for an increase of 10 μg·m -3 of NO 2: 1.00 [0.91-1.09], for an increase of 5 μg·m -3 of PM 2.5 : 0.88 [0.73-1.04]). Similar results were found in the two-pollutant model (aIRR for an increase of 10 μg·m -3 of NO 2: 1.01 [0.87-1.17], for an increase of 5 μg·m -3 of PM 2.5 : 0.87 [0.68-1.08]). Results differed depending on the city, but no regional pattern emerged for any of the pollutants. This study did not find any consistent evidence of an association between long-term air pollution and incident rhinitis. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Comparative assessment of GIS-based methods and metrics for estimating long-term exposures to air pollution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gulliver, John; de Hoogh, Kees; Fecht, Daniela; Vienneau, Danielle; Briggs, David

2011-12-01

The development of geographical information system techniques has opened up a wide array of methods for air pollution exposure assessment. The extent to which these provide reliable estimates of air pollution concentrations is nevertheless not clearly established. Nor is it clear which methods or metrics should be preferred in epidemiological studies. This paper compares the performance of ten different methods and metrics in terms of their ability to predict mean annual PM 10 concentrations across 52 monitoring sites in London, UK. Metrics analysed include indicators (distance to nearest road, traffic volume on nearest road, heavy duty vehicle (HDV) volume on nearest road, road density within 150 m, traffic volume within 150 m and HDV volume within 150 m) and four modelling approaches: based on the nearest monitoring site, kriging, dispersion modelling and land use regression (LUR). Measures were computed in a GIS, and resulting metrics calibrated and validated against monitoring data using a form of grouped jack-knife analysis. The results show that PM 10 concentrations across London show little spatial variation. As a consequence, most methods can predict the average without serious bias. Few of the approaches, however, show good correlations with monitored PM 10 concentrations, and most predict no better than a simple classification based on site type. Only land use regression reaches acceptable levels of correlation ( R2 = 0.47), though this can be improved by also including information on site type. This might therefore be taken as a recommended approach in many studies, though care is needed in developing meaningful land use regression models, and like any method they need to be validated against local data before their application as part of epidemiological studies.

Statistical modelling for precision agriculture: A case study in optimal environmental schedules for Agaricus Bisporus production via variable domain functional regression.

PubMed

Panayi, Efstathios; Peters, Gareth W; Kyriakides, George

2017-01-01

Quantifying the effects of environmental factors over the duration of the growing process on Agaricus Bisporus (button mushroom) yields has been difficult, as common functional data analysis approaches require fixed length functional data. The data available from commercial growers, however, is of variable duration, due to commercial considerations. We employ a recently proposed regression technique termed Variable-Domain Functional Regression in order to be able to accommodate these irregular-length datasets. In this way, we are able to quantify the contribution of covariates such as temperature, humidity and water spraying volumes across the growing process, and for different lengths of growing processes. Our results indicate that optimal oxygen and temperature levels vary across the growing cycle and we propose environmental schedules for these covariates to optimise overall yields.

Statistical modelling for precision agriculture: A case study in optimal environmental schedules for Agaricus Bisporus production via variable domain functional regression

PubMed Central

Panayi, Efstathios; Kyriakides, George

2017-01-01

Quantifying the effects of environmental factors over the duration of the growing process on Agaricus Bisporus (button mushroom) yields has been difficult, as common functional data analysis approaches require fixed length functional data. The data available from commercial growers, however, is of variable duration, due to commercial considerations. We employ a recently proposed regression technique termed Variable-Domain Functional Regression in order to be able to accommodate these irregular-length datasets. In this way, we are able to quantify the contribution of covariates such as temperature, humidity and water spraying volumes across the growing process, and for different lengths of growing processes. Our results indicate that optimal oxygen and temperature levels vary across the growing cycle and we propose environmental schedules for these covariates to optimise overall yields. PMID:28961254

Regression rate study of porous axial-injection, endburning hybrid fuel grains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hitt, Matthew A.

This experimental and theoretical work examines the effects of gaseous oxidizer flow rates and pressure on the regression rates of porous fuels for hybrid rocket applications. Testing was conducted using polyethylene as the porous fuel and both gaseous oxygen and nitrous oxide as the oxidizer. Nominal test articles were tested using 200, 100, 50, and 15 micron fuel pore sizes. Pressures tested ranged from atmospheric to 1160 kPa for the gaseous oxygen tests and from 207 kPa to 1054 kPa for the nitrous oxide tests, and oxidizer injection velocities ranged from 35 m/s to 80 m/s for the gaseous oxygen tests and from 7.5 m/s to 16.8 m/s for the nitrous oxide tests. Regression rates were determined using pretest and posttest length measurements of the solid fuel. Experimental results demonstrated that the regression rate of the porous axial-injection, end-burning hybrid was a function of the chamber pressure, as opposed to the oxidizer mass flux typical in conventional hybrids. Regression rates ranged from approximately 0.75 mm/s at atmospheric pressure to 8.89 mm/s at 1160 kPa for the gaseous oxygen tests and 0.21 mm/s at 207 kPa to 1.44 mm/s at 1054 kPa for the nitrous oxide tests. The analytical model was developed based on a standard ablative model modified to include oxidizer flow through the grain. The heat transfer from the flame was primarily modeled using an empirically determined flame coefficient that included all heat transfer mechanisms in one term. An exploratory flame model based on the Granular Diffusion Flame model used for solid rocket motors was also adapted for comparison with the empirical flame coefficient. This model was then evaluated quantitatively using the experimental results of the gaseous oxygen tests as well as qualitatively using the experimental results of the nitrous oxide tests. The model showed agreement with the experimental results indicating it has potential for giving insight into the flame structure in this motor configuration. Results from the model suggested that both kinetic and diffusion processes could be relevant to the combustion depending on the chamber pressure.

Two models of the sound-signal frequency dependence on the animal body size as exemplified by the ground squirrels of Eurasia (mammalia, rodentia).

PubMed

Nikol'skii, A A

2017-11-01

Dependence of the sound-signal frequency on the animal body length was studied in 14 ground squirrel species (genus Spermophilus) of Eurasia. Regression analysis of the total sample yielded a low determination coefficient (R 2 = 26%), because the total sample proved to be heterogeneous in terms of signal frequency within the dimension classes of animals. When the total sample was divided into two groups according to signal frequency, two statistically significant models (regression equations) were obtained in which signal frequency depended on the body size at high determination coefficients (R 2 = 73 and 94% versus 26% for the total sample). Thus, the problem of correlation between animal body size and the frequency of their vocal signals does not have a unique solution.

Estimates of long-term mean-annual nutrient loads considered for use in SPARROW models of the Midcontinental region of Canada and the United States, 2002 base year

USGS Publications Warehouse

Saad, David A.; Benoy, Glenn A.; Robertson, Dale M.

2018-05-11

Streamflow and nutrient concentration data needed to compute nitrogen and phosphorus loads were compiled from Federal, State, Provincial, and local agency databases and also from selected university databases. The nitrogen and phosphorus loads are necessary inputs to Spatially Referenced Regressions on Watershed Attributes (SPARROW) models. SPARROW models are a way to estimate the distribution, sources, and transport of nutrients in streams throughout the Midcontinental region of Canada and the United States. After screening the data, approximately 1,500 sites sampled by 34 agencies were identified as having suitable data for calculating the long-term mean-annual nutrient loads required for SPARROW model calibration. These final sites represent a wide range in watershed sizes, types of nutrient sources, and land-use and watershed characteristics in the Midcontinental region of Canada and the United States.

Evaluation and comparison of benchmark QSAR models to predict a relevant REACH endpoint: The bioconcentration factor (BCF).

PubMed

Gissi, Andrea; Lombardo, Anna; Roncaglioni, Alessandra; Gadaleta, Domenico; Mangiatordi, Giuseppe Felice; Nicolotti, Orazio; Benfenati, Emilio

2015-02-01

The bioconcentration factor (BCF) is an important bioaccumulation hazard assessment metric in many regulatory contexts. Its assessment is required by the REACH regulation (Registration, Evaluation, Authorization and Restriction of Chemicals) and by CLP (Classification, Labeling and Packaging). We challenged nine well-known and widely used BCF QSAR models against 851 compounds stored in an ad-hoc created database. The goodness of the regression analysis was assessed by considering the determination coefficient (R(2)) and the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE); Cooper's statistics and Matthew's Correlation Coefficient (MCC) were calculated for all the thresholds relevant for regulatory purposes (i.e. 100L/kg for Chemical Safety Assessment; 500L/kg for Classification and Labeling; 2000 and 5000L/kg for Persistent, Bioaccumulative and Toxic (PBT) and very Persistent, very Bioaccumulative (vPvB) assessment) to assess the classification, with particular attention to the models' ability to control the occurrence of false negatives. As a first step, statistical analysis was performed for the predictions of the entire dataset; R(2)>0.70 was obtained using CORAL, T.E.S.T. and EPISuite Arnot-Gobas models. As classifiers, ACD and logP-based equations were the best in terms of sensitivity, ranging from 0.75 to 0.94. External compound predictions were carried out for the models that had their own training sets. CORAL model returned the best performance (R(2)ext=0.59), followed by the EPISuite Meylan model (R(2)ext=0.58). The latter gave also the highest sensitivity on external compounds with values from 0.55 to 0.85, depending on the thresholds. Statistics were also compiled for compounds falling into the models Applicability Domain (AD), giving better performances. In this respect, VEGA CAESAR was the best model in terms of regression (R(2)=0.94) and classification (average sensitivity>0.80). This model also showed the best regression (R(2)=0.85) and sensitivity (average>0.70) for new compounds in the AD but not present in the training set. However, no single optimal model exists and, thus, it would be wise a case-by-case assessment. Yet, integrating the wealth of information from multiple models remains the winner approach. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Modelling Nitrogen Oxides in Los Angeles Using a Hybrid Dispersion/Land Use Regression Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilton, Darren C.

The goal of this dissertation is to develop models capable of predicting long term annual average NOx concentrations in urban areas. Predictions from simple meteorological dispersion models and seasonal proxies for NO2 oxidation were included as covariates in a land use regression (LUR) model for NOx in Los Angeles, CA. The NO x measurements were obtained from a comprehensive measurement campaign that is part of the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis Air Pollution Study (MESA Air). Simple land use regression models were initially developed using a suite of GIS-derived land use variables developed from various buffer sizes (R²=0.15). Caline3, a simple steady-state Gaussian line source model, was initially incorporated into the land-use regression framework. The addition of this spatio-temporally varying Caline3 covariate improved the simple LUR model predictions. The extent of improvement was much more pronounced for models based solely on the summer measurements (simple LUR: R²=0.45; Caline3/LUR: R²=0.70), than it was for models based on all seasons (R²=0.20). We then used a Lagrangian dispersion model to convert static land use covariates for population density, commercial/industrial area into spatially and temporally varying covariates. The inclusion of these covariates resulted in significant improvement in model prediction (R²=0.57). In addition to the dispersion model covariates described above, a two-week average value of daily peak-hour ozone was included as a surrogate of the oxidation of NO2 during the different sampling periods. This additional covariate further improved overall model performance for all models. The best model by 10-fold cross validation (R²=0.73) contained the Caline3 prediction, a static covariate for length of A3 roads within 50 meters, the Calpuff-adjusted covariates derived from both population density and industrial/commercial land area, and the ozone covariate. This model was tested against annual average NOx concentrations from an independent data set from the EPA's Air Quality System (AQS) and MESA Air fixed site monitors, and performed very well (R²=0.82).

Learning to Monitor Machine Health with Convolutional Bi-Directional LSTM Networks

PubMed Central

Zhao, Rui; Yan, Ruqiang; Wang, Jinjiang; Mao, Kezhi

2017-01-01

In modern manufacturing systems and industries, more and more research efforts have been made in developing effective machine health monitoring systems. Among various machine health monitoring approaches, data-driven methods are gaining in popularity due to the development of advanced sensing and data analytic techniques. However, considering the noise, varying length and irregular sampling behind sensory data, this kind of sequential data cannot be fed into classification and regression models directly. Therefore, previous work focuses on feature extraction/fusion methods requiring expensive human labor and high quality expert knowledge. With the development of deep learning methods in the last few years, which redefine representation learning from raw data, a deep neural network structure named Convolutional Bi-directional Long Short-Term Memory networks (CBLSTM) has been designed here to address raw sensory data. CBLSTM firstly uses CNN to extract local features that are robust and informative from the sequential input. Then, bi-directional LSTM is introduced to encode temporal information. Long Short-Term Memory networks (LSTMs) are able to capture long-term dependencies and model sequential data, and the bi-directional structure enables the capture of past and future contexts. Stacked, fully-connected layers and the linear regression layer are built on top of bi-directional LSTMs to predict the target value. Here, a real-life tool wear test is introduced, and our proposed CBLSTM is able to predict the actual tool wear based on raw sensory data. The experimental results have shown that our model is able to outperform several state-of-the-art baseline methods. PMID:28146106

Learning to Monitor Machine Health with Convolutional Bi-Directional LSTM Networks.

PubMed

Zhao, Rui; Yan, Ruqiang; Wang, Jinjiang; Mao, Kezhi

2017-01-30

In modern manufacturing systems and industries, more and more research efforts have been made in developing effective machine health monitoring systems. Among various machine health monitoring approaches, data-driven methods are gaining in popularity due to the development of advanced sensing and data analytic techniques. However, considering the noise, varying length and irregular sampling behind sensory data, this kind of sequential data cannot be fed into classification and regression models directly. Therefore, previous work focuses on feature extraction/fusion methods requiring expensive human labor and high quality expert knowledge. With the development of deep learning methods in the last few years, which redefine representation learning from raw data, a deep neural network structure named Convolutional Bi-directional Long Short-Term Memory networks (CBLSTM) has been designed here to address raw sensory data. CBLSTM firstly uses CNN to extract local features that are robust and informative from the sequential input. Then, bi-directional LSTM is introduced to encode temporal information. Long Short-Term Memory networks(LSTMs) are able to capture long-term dependencies and model sequential data, and the bi-directional structure enables the capture of past and future contexts. Stacked, fully-connected layers and the linear regression layer are built on top of bi-directional LSTMs to predict the target value. Here, a real-life tool wear test is introduced, and our proposed CBLSTM is able to predict the actual tool wear based on raw sensory data. The experimental results have shown that our model is able to outperform several state-of-the-art baseline methods.

School bullying and traumatic dental injuries in East London adolescents.

PubMed

Agel, M; Marcenes, W; Stansfeld, S A; Bernabé, E

2014-12-01

To explore the association between school bullying and traumatic dental injuries (TDI) among 15-16-year-old school children from East London. Data from phase III of the Research with East London Adolescents Community Health Survey (RELACHS), a school-based prospective study of a representative sample of adolescents, were analysed. Adolescents provided information on demographic characteristics, socioeconomic measures and frequency of bullying in school through self-administered questionnaires and were clinically examined for overjet, lip coverage and TDI. The association between school bullying and TDI was assessed using binary logistic regression models. The prevalence of TDI was 17%, while lifetime and current prevalence of bullying was 32% and 11%, respectively. The prevalence of TDI increased with a growing frequency of bullying; from 16% among adolescents who had never been bullied at school, to 21% among those who were bullied in the past but not this school term, to 22% for those who were bullied this school term. However, this association was not statistically significant either in crude or adjusted regression models. There was no evidence of an association between frequency of school bullying and TDI in this sample of 15-16-year-old adolescents in East London.

A multimedia retrieval framework based on semi-supervised ranking and relevance feedback.

PubMed

Yang, Yi; Nie, Feiping; Xu, Dong; Luo, Jiebo; Zhuang, Yueting; Pan, Yunhe

2012-04-01

We present a new framework for multimedia content analysis and retrieval which consists of two independent algorithms. First, we propose a new semi-supervised algorithm called ranking with Local Regression and Global Alignment (LRGA) to learn a robust Laplacian matrix for data ranking. In LRGA, for each data point, a local linear regression model is used to predict the ranking scores of its neighboring points. A unified objective function is then proposed to globally align the local models from all the data points so that an optimal ranking score can be assigned to each data point. Second, we propose a semi-supervised long-term Relevance Feedback (RF) algorithm to refine the multimedia data representation. The proposed long-term RF algorithm utilizes both the multimedia data distribution in multimedia feature space and the history RF information provided by users. A trace ratio optimization problem is then formulated and solved by an efficient algorithm. The algorithms have been applied to several content-based multimedia retrieval applications, including cross-media retrieval, image retrieval, and 3D motion/pose data retrieval. Comprehensive experiments on four data sets have demonstrated its advantages in precision, robustness, scalability, and computational efficiency.

Differences by Sexual Orientation in Expectations About Future Long-Term Care Needs Among Adults 40 to 65 Years Old.

PubMed

Henning-Smith, Carrie; Gonzales, Gilbert; Shippee, Tetyana P

2015-11-01

We examined whether and how lesbian, gay, and bisexual (LGB) adults between 40 and 65 years of age differ from heterosexual adults in long-term care (LTC) expectations. Our data were derived from the 2013 National Health Interview Survey. We used ordered logistic regression to compare the odds of expected future use of LTC among LGB (n = 297) and heterosexual (n = 13 120) adults. We also used logistic regression models to assess the odds of expecting to use specific sources of care. All models controlled for key socioeconomic characteristics. Although LGB adults had greater expectations of needing LTC in the future than their heterosexual counterparts, that association was largely explained by sociodemographic and health differences. After control for these differentials, LGB adults were less likely to expect care from family and more likely to expect to use institutional care in old age. LGB adults may rely more heavily than heterosexual adults on formal systems of care. As the older population continues to diversify, nursing homes and assisted living facilities should work to ensure safety and culturally sensitive best practices for older LGB groups.

Differences by Sexual Orientation in Expectations About Future Long-Term Care Needs Among Adults 40 to 65 Years Old

PubMed Central

Gonzales, Gilbert; Shippee, Tetyana P.

2015-01-01

Objectives. We examined whether and how lesbian, gay, and bisexual (LGB) adults between 40 and 65 years of age differ from heterosexual adults in long-term care (LTC) expectations. Methods. Our data were derived from the 2013 National Health Interview Survey. We used ordered logistic regression to compare the odds of expected future use of LTC among LGB (n = 297) and heterosexual (n = 13 120) adults. We also used logistic regression models to assess the odds of expecting to use specific sources of care. All models controlled for key socioeconomic characteristics. Results. Although LGB adults had greater expectations of needing LTC in the future than their heterosexual counterparts, that association was largely explained by sociodemographic and health differences. After control for these differentials, LGB adults were less likely to expect care from family and more likely to expect to use institutional care in old age. Conclusions. LGB adults may rely more heavily than heterosexual adults on formal systems of care. As the older population continues to diversify, nursing homes and assisted living facilities should work to ensure safety and culturally sensitive best practices for older LGB groups. PMID:26378822

Fisher Scoring Method for Parameter Estimation of Geographically Weighted Ordinal Logistic Regression (GWOLR) Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Widyaningsih, Purnami; Retno Sari Saputro, Dewi; Nugrahani Putri, Aulia

2017-06-01

GWOLR model combines geographically weighted regression (GWR) and (ordinal logistic reression) OLR models. Its parameter estimation employs maximum likelihood estimation. Such parameter estimation, however, yields difficult-to-solve system of nonlinear equations, and therefore numerical approximation approach is required. The iterative approximation approach, in general, uses Newton-Raphson (NR) method. The NR method has a disadvantage—its Hessian matrix is always the second derivatives of each iteration so it does not always produce converging results. With regard to this matter, NR model is modified by substituting its Hessian matrix into Fisher information matrix, which is termed Fisher scoring (FS). The present research seeks to determine GWOLR model parameter estimation using Fisher scoring method and apply the estimation on data of the level of vulnerability to Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF) in Semarang. The research concludes that health facilities give the greatest contribution to the probability of the number of DHF sufferers in both villages. Based on the number of the sufferers, IR category of DHF in both villages can be determined.

The validation of a human force model to predict dynamic forces resulting from multi-joint motions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pandya, Abhilash K.; Maida, James C.; Aldridge, Ann M.; Hasson, Scott M.; Woolford, Barbara J.

1992-01-01

The development and validation is examined of a dynamic strength model for humans. This model is based on empirical data. The shoulder, elbow, and wrist joints were characterized in terms of maximum isolated torque, or position and velocity, in all rotational planes. This data was reduced by a least squares regression technique into a table of single variable second degree polynomial equations determining torque as a function of position and velocity. The isolated joint torque equations were then used to compute forces resulting from a composite motion, in this case, a ratchet wrench push and pull operation. A comparison of the predicted results of the model with the actual measured values for the composite motion indicates that forces derived from a composite motion of joints (ratcheting) can be predicted from isolated joint measures. Calculated T values comparing model versus measured values for 14 subjects were well within the statistically acceptable limits and regression analysis revealed coefficient of variation between actual and measured to be within 0.72 and 0.80.

Predicting mortality over different time horizons: which data elements are needed?

PubMed

Goldstein, Benjamin A; Pencina, Michael J; Montez-Rath, Maria E; Winkelmayer, Wolfgang C

2017-01-01

Electronic health records (EHRs) are a resource for "big data" analytics, containing a variety of data elements. We investigate how different categories of information contribute to prediction of mortality over different time horizons among patients undergoing hemodialysis treatment. We derived prediction models for mortality over 7 time horizons using EHR data on older patients from a national chain of dialysis clinics linked with administrative data using LASSO (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator) regression. We assessed how different categories of information relate to risk assessment and compared discrete models to time-to-event models. The best predictors used all the available data (c-statistic ranged from 0.72-0.76), with stronger models in the near term. While different variable groups showed different utility, exclusion of any particular group did not lead to a meaningfully different risk assessment. Discrete time models performed better than time-to-event models. Different variable groups were predictive over different time horizons, with vital signs most predictive for near-term mortality and demographic and comorbidities more important in long-term mortality. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Medical Informatics Association. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Modeling number of bacteria per food unit in comparison to bacterial concentration in quantitative risk assessment: impact on risk estimates.

PubMed

Pouillot, Régis; Chen, Yuhuan; Hoelzer, Karin

2015-02-01

When developing quantitative risk assessment models, a fundamental consideration for risk assessors is to decide whether to evaluate changes in bacterial levels in terms of concentrations or in terms of bacterial numbers. Although modeling bacteria in terms of integer numbers may be regarded as a more intuitive and rigorous choice, modeling bacterial concentrations is more popular as it is generally less mathematically complex. We tested three different modeling approaches in a simulation study. The first approach considered bacterial concentrations; the second considered the number of bacteria in contaminated units, and the third considered the expected number of bacteria in contaminated units. Simulation results indicate that modeling concentrations tends to overestimate risk compared to modeling the number of bacteria. A sensitivity analysis using a regression tree suggests that processes which include drastic scenarios consisting of combinations of large bacterial inactivation followed by large bacterial growth frequently lead to a >10-fold overestimation of the average risk when modeling concentrations as opposed to bacterial numbers. Alternatively, the approach of modeling the expected number of bacteria in positive units generates results similar to the second method and is easier to use, thus potentially representing a promising compromise. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Evaluation of regression and neural network models for solar forecasting over different short-term horizons

DOE PAGES

Inanlouganji, Alireza; Reddy, T. Agami; Katipamula, Srinivas

2018-04-13

Forecasting solar irradiation has acquired immense importance in view of the exponential increase in the number of solar photovoltaic (PV) system installations. In this article, analyses results involving statistical and machine-learning techniques to predict solar irradiation for different forecasting horizons are reported. Yearlong typical meteorological year 3 (TMY3) datasets from three cities in the United States with different climatic conditions have been used in this analysis. A simple forecast approach that assumes consecutive days to be identical serves as a baseline model to compare forecasting alternatives. To account for seasonal variability and to capture short-term fluctuations, different variants of themore » lagged moving average (LMX) model with cloud cover as the input variable are evaluated. Finally, the proposed LMX model is evaluated against an artificial neural network (ANN) model. How the one-hour and 24-hour models can be used in conjunction to predict different short-term rolling horizons is discussed, and this joint application is illustrated for a four-hour rolling horizon forecast scheme. Lastly, the effect of using predicted cloud cover values, instead of measured ones, on the accuracy of the models is assessed. Results show that LMX models do not degrade in forecast accuracy if models are trained with the forecast cloud cover data.« less

Evaluation of regression and neural network models for solar forecasting over different short-term horizons

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Inanlouganji, Alireza; Reddy, T. Agami; Katipamula, Srinivas

Forecasting solar irradiation has acquired immense importance in view of the exponential increase in the number of solar photovoltaic (PV) system installations. In this article, analyses results involving statistical and machine-learning techniques to predict solar irradiation for different forecasting horizons are reported. Yearlong typical meteorological year 3 (TMY3) datasets from three cities in the United States with different climatic conditions have been used in this analysis. A simple forecast approach that assumes consecutive days to be identical serves as a baseline model to compare forecasting alternatives. To account for seasonal variability and to capture short-term fluctuations, different variants of themore » lagged moving average (LMX) model with cloud cover as the input variable are evaluated. Finally, the proposed LMX model is evaluated against an artificial neural network (ANN) model. How the one-hour and 24-hour models can be used in conjunction to predict different short-term rolling horizons is discussed, and this joint application is illustrated for a four-hour rolling horizon forecast scheme. Lastly, the effect of using predicted cloud cover values, instead of measured ones, on the accuracy of the models is assessed. Results show that LMX models do not degrade in forecast accuracy if models are trained with the forecast cloud cover data.« less

Development of non-linear models predicting daily fine particle concentrations using aerosol optical depth retrievals and ground-based measurements at a municipality in the Brazilian Amazon region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonçalves, Karen dos Santos; Winkler, Mirko S.; Benchimol-Barbosa, Paulo Roberto; de Hoogh, Kees; Artaxo, Paulo Eduardo; de Souza Hacon, Sandra; Schindler, Christian; Künzli, Nino

2018-07-01

Epidemiological studies generally use particulate matter measurements with diameter less 2.5 μm (PM2.5) from monitoring networks. Satellite aerosol optical depth (AOD) data has considerable potential in predicting PM2.5 concentrations, and thus provides an alternative method for producing knowledge regarding the level of pollution and its health impact in areas where no ground PM2.5 measurements are available. This is the case in the Brazilian Amazon rainforest region where forest fires are frequent sources of high pollution. In this study, we applied a non-linear model for predicting PM2.5 concentration from AOD retrievals using interaction terms between average temperature, relative humidity, sine, cosine of date in a period of 365,25 days and the square of the lagged relative residual. Regression performance statistics were tested comparing the goodness of fit and R2 based on results from linear regression and non-linear regression for six different models. The regression results for non-linear prediction showed the best performance, explaining on average 82% of the daily PM2.5 concentrations when considering the whole period studied. In the context of Amazonia, it was the first study predicting PM2.5 concentrations using the latest high-resolution AOD products also in combination with the testing of a non-linear model performance. Our results permitted a reliable prediction considering the AOD-PM2.5 relationship and set the basis for further investigations on air pollution impacts in the complex context of Brazilian Amazon Region.

Spatial and Temporal Changes of Aerosol Optical Depth and its Driving Factors Based on Modis in Jiangsu Province

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, C.; Xu, Q.; Gu, Y. K.; Qian, X. Y.; He, J. N.

2018-04-01

Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) is of great value for studying air mass and its changes. In this paper, we studied the spatial-temporal changes of AOD and its driving factors based on spatial autocorrelation model, gravity model and multiple regression analysis in Jiangsu Province from 2007 to 2016. The results showed that in terms of spatial distribution, the southern AOD value is higher, and the high-value aggregation areas are significant, while the northern AOD value is lower, but the low-value aggregation areas constantly change. The AOD gravity centers showed a clear point-like aggregation. In terms of temporal changes, the overall AOD in Jiangsu Province increased year by year in fluctuation. In terms of driving factors, the total amount of vehicles, precipitation and temperature are important factors for the growth of AOD.

Environmental factors and flow paths related to Escherichia coli concentrations at two beaches on Lake St. Clair, Michigan, 2002–2005

USGS Publications Warehouse

Holtschlag, David J.; Shively, Dawn; Whitman, Richard L.; Haack, Sheridan K.; Fogarty, Lisa R.

2008-01-01

Regression analyses and hydrodynamic modeling were used to identify environmental factors and flow paths associated with Escherichia coli (E. coli) concentrations at Memorial and Metropolitan Beaches on Lake St. Clair in Macomb County, Mich. Lake St. Clair is part of the binational waterway between the United States and Canada that connects Lake Huron with Lake Erie in the Great Lakes Basin. Linear regression, regression-tree, and logistic regression models were developed from E. coli concentration and ancillary environmental data. Linear regression models on log10 E. coli concentrations indicated that rainfall prior to sampling, water temperature, and turbidity were positively associated with bacteria concentrations at both beaches. Flow from Clinton River, changes in water levels, wind conditions, and log10 E. coli concentrations 2 days before or after the target bacteria concentrations were statistically significant at one or both beaches. In addition, various interaction terms were significant at Memorial Beach. Linear regression models for both beaches explained only about 30 percent of the variability in log10 E. coli concentrations. Regression-tree models were developed from data from both Memorial and Metropolitan Beaches but were found to have limited predictive capability in this study. The results indicate that too few observations were available to develop reliable regression-tree models. Linear logistic models were developed to estimate the probability of E. coli concentrations exceeding 300 most probable number (MPN) per 100 milliliters (mL). Rainfall amounts before bacteria sampling were positively associated with exceedance probabilities at both beaches. Flow of Clinton River, turbidity, and log10 E. coli concentrations measured before or after the target E. coli measurements were related to exceedances at one or both beaches. The linear logistic models were effective in estimating bacteria exceedances at both beaches. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was used to determine cut points for maximizing the true positive rate prediction while minimizing the false positive rate. A two-dimensional hydrodynamic model was developed to simulate horizontal current patterns on Lake St. Clair in response to wind, flow, and water-level conditions at model boundaries. Simulated velocity fields were used to track hypothetical massless particles backward in time from the beaches along flow paths toward source areas. Reverse particle tracking for idealized steady-state conditions shows changes in expected flow paths and traveltimes with wind speeds and directions from 24 sectors. The results indicate that three to four sets of contiguous wind sectors have similar effects on flow paths in the vicinity of the beaches. In addition, reverse particle tracking was used for transient conditions to identify expected flow paths for 10 E. coli sampling events in 2004. These results demonstrate the ability to track hypothetical particles from the beaches, backward in time, to likely source areas. This ability, coupled with a greater frequency of bacteria sampling, may provide insight into changes in bacteria concentrations between source and sink areas.

Superquantile/CVaR Risk Measures: Second-Order Theory

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-07-31

order superquantile risk minimization as well as superquantile regression , a proposed second-order version of quantile regression . Keywords...minimization as well as superquantile regression , a proposed second-order version of quantile regression . 15. SUBJECT TERMS 16. SECURITY...superquantilies, because it is deeply tied to generalized regression . The joint formula (3) is central to quantile regression , a well known alternative

A nonparametric multiple imputation approach for missing categorical data.

PubMed

Zhou, Muhan; He, Yulei; Yu, Mandi; Hsu, Chiu-Hsieh

2017-06-06

Incomplete categorical variables with more than two categories are common in public health data. However, most of the existing missing-data methods do not use the information from nonresponse (missingness) probabilities. We propose a nearest-neighbour multiple imputation approach to impute a missing at random categorical outcome and to estimate the proportion of each category. The donor set for imputation is formed by measuring distances between each missing value with other non-missing values. The distance function is calculated based on a predictive score, which is derived from two working models: one fits a multinomial logistic regression for predicting the missing categorical outcome (the outcome model) and the other fits a logistic regression for predicting missingness probabilities (the missingness model). A weighting scheme is used to accommodate contributions from two working models when generating the predictive score. A missing value is imputed by randomly selecting one of the non-missing values with the smallest distances. We conduct a simulation to evaluate the performance of the proposed method and compare it with several alternative methods. A real-data application is also presented. The simulation study suggests that the proposed method performs well when missingness probabilities are not extreme under some misspecifications of the working models. However, the calibration estimator, which is also based on two working models, can be highly unstable when missingness probabilities for some observations are extremely high. In this scenario, the proposed method produces more stable and better estimates. In addition, proper weights need to be chosen to balance the contributions from the two working models and achieve optimal results for the proposed method. We conclude that the proposed multiple imputation method is a reasonable approach to dealing with missing categorical outcome data with more than two levels for assessing the distribution of the outcome. In terms of the choices for the working models, we suggest a multinomial logistic regression for predicting the missing outcome and a binary logistic regression for predicting the missingness probability.

Machine Learning Algorithms Outperform Conventional Regression Models in Predicting Development of Hepatocellular Carcinoma

PubMed Central

Singal, Amit G.; Mukherjee, Ashin; Elmunzer, B. Joseph; Higgins, Peter DR; Lok, Anna S.; Zhu, Ji; Marrero, Jorge A; Waljee, Akbar K

2015-01-01

Background Predictive models for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) have been limited by modest accuracy and lack of validation. Machine learning algorithms offer a novel methodology, which may improve HCC risk prognostication among patients with cirrhosis. Our study's aim was to develop and compare predictive models for HCC development among cirrhotic patients, using conventional regression analysis and machine learning algorithms. Methods We enrolled 442 patients with Child A or B cirrhosis at the University of Michigan between January 2004 and September 2006 (UM cohort) and prospectively followed them until HCC development, liver transplantation, death, or study termination. Regression analysis and machine learning algorithms were used to construct predictive models for HCC development, which were tested on an independent validation cohort from the Hepatitis C Antiviral Long-term Treatment against Cirrhosis (HALT-C) Trial. Both models were also compared to the previously published HALT-C model. Discrimination was assessed using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis and diagnostic accuracy was assessed with net reclassification improvement and integrated discrimination improvement statistics. Results After a median follow-up of 3.5 years, 41 patients developed HCC. The UM regression model had a c-statistic of 0.61 (95%CI 0.56-0.67), whereas the machine learning algorithm had a c-statistic of 0.64 (95%CI 0.60–0.69) in the validation cohort. The machine learning algorithm had significantly better diagnostic accuracy as assessed by net reclassification improvement (p<0.001) and integrated discrimination improvement (p=0.04). The HALT-C model had a c-statistic of 0.60 (95%CI 0.50-0.70) in the validation cohort and was outperformed by the machine learning algorithm (p=0.047). Conclusion Machine learning algorithms improve the accuracy of risk stratifying patients with cirrhosis and can be used to accurately identify patients at high-risk for developing HCC. PMID:24169273

Using an autologistic regression model to identify spatial risk factors and spatial risk patterns of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in Mainland China

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background There have been large-scale outbreaks of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in Mainland China over the last decade. These events varied greatly across the country. It is necessary to identify the spatial risk factors and spatial distribution patterns of HFMD for public health control and prevention. Climate risk factors associated with HFMD occurrence have been recognized. However, few studies discussed the socio-economic determinants of HFMD risk at a space scale. Methods HFMD records in Mainland China in May 2008 were collected. Both climate and socio-economic factors were selected as potential risk exposures of HFMD. Odds ratio (OR) was used to identify the spatial risk factors. A spatial autologistic regression model was employed to get OR values of each exposures and model the spatial distribution patterns of HFMD risk. Results Results showed that both climate and socio-economic variables were spatial risk factors for HFMD transmission in Mainland China. The statistically significant risk factors are monthly average precipitation (OR = 1.4354), monthly average temperature (OR = 1.379), monthly average wind speed (OR = 1.186), the number of industrial enterprises above designated size (OR = 17.699), the population density (OR = 1.953), and the proportion of student population (OR = 1.286). The spatial autologistic regression model has a good goodness of fit (ROC = 0.817) and prediction accuracy (Correct ratio = 78.45%) of HFMD occurrence. The autologistic regression model also reduces the contribution of the residual term in the ordinary logistic regression model significantly, from 17.25 to 1.25 for the odds ratio. Based on the prediction results of the spatial model, we obtained a map of the probability of HFMD occurrence that shows the spatial distribution pattern and local epidemic risk over Mainland China. Conclusions The autologistic regression model was used to identify spatial risk factors and model spatial risk patterns of HFMD. HFMD occurrences were found to be spatially heterogeneous over the Mainland China, which is related to both the climate and socio-economic variables. The combination of socio-economic and climate exposures can explain the HFMD occurrences more comprehensively and objectively than those with only climate exposures. The modeled probability of HFMD occurrence at the county level reveals not only the spatial trends, but also the local details of epidemic risk, even in the regions where there were no HFMD case records. PMID:24731248

Residential magnetic fields predicted from wiring configurations: I. Exposure model.

PubMed

Bowman, J D; Thomas, D C; Jiang, L; Jiang, F; Peters, J M

1999-10-01

A physically based model for residential magnetic fields from electric transmission and distribution wiring was developed to reanalyze the Los Angeles study of childhood leukemia by London et al. For this exposure model, magnetic field measurements were fitted to a function of wire configuration attributes that was derived from a multipole expansion of the Law of Biot and Savart. The model parameters were determined by nonlinear regression techniques, using wiring data, distances, and the geometric mean of the ELF magnetic field magnitude from 24-h bedroom measurements taken at 288 homes during the epidemiologic study. The best fit to the measurement data was obtained with separate models for the two major utilities serving Los Angeles County. This model's predictions produced a correlation of 0.40 with the measured fields, an improvement on the 0.27 correlation obtained with the Wertheimer-Leeper (WL) wire code. For the leukemia risk analysis in a companion paper, the regression model predicts exposures to the 24-h geometric mean of the ELF magnetic fields in Los Angeles homes where only wiring data and distances have been obtained. Since these input parameters for the exposure model usually do not change for many years, the predicted magnetic fields will be stable over long time periods, just like the WL code. If the geometric mean is not the exposure metric associated with cancer, this regression technique could be used to estimate long-term exposures to temporal variability metrics and other characteristics of the ELF magnetic field which may be cancer risk factors.

Empirical and semi-analytical models for predicting peak outflows caused by embankment dam failures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Bo; Chen, Yunliang; Wu, Chao; Peng, Yong; Song, Jiajun; Liu, Wenjun; Liu, Xin

2018-07-01

Prediction of peak discharge of floods has attracted great attention for researchers and engineers. In present study, nine typical nonlinear mathematical models are established based on database of 40 historical dam failures. The first eight models that were developed with a series of regression analyses are purely empirical, while the last one is a semi-analytical approach that was derived from an analytical solution of dam-break floods in a trapezoidal channel. Water depth above breach invert (Hw), volume of water stored above breach invert (Vw), embankment length (El), and average embankment width (Ew) are used as independent variables to develop empirical formulas of estimating the peak outflow from breached embankment dams. It is indicated from the multiple regression analysis that a function using the former two variables (i.e., Hw and Vw) produce considerably more accurate results than that using latter two variables (i.e., El and Ew). It is shown that the semi-analytical approach works best in terms of both prediction accuracy and uncertainty, and the established empirical models produce considerably reasonable results except the model only using El. Moreover, present models have been compared with other models available in literature for estimating peak discharge.

Long Term Association of Tropospheric Trace gases over Pakistan by exploiting satellite observations and development of Econometric Regression based Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeb, Naila; Fahim Khokhar, Muhammad; Khan, Saud Ahmed; Noreen, Asma; Murtaza, Rabbia

2017-04-01

Air pollution is the expected key environmental issue of Pakistan as it is ranked among top polluted countries in the region. Ongoing rapid economic growth without any adequate measures is leading to worst air quality over time. The study aims to monitor long term atmospheric composition and association of trace gases over Pakistan. Tropospheric concentrations of CO, TOC, NO2 and HCHO derived from multiple satellite instruments are used for study from year 2005 to 2014. The study will provide first database for tropospheric trace gases over Pakistan. Spatio-temporal assessment identified hotspots and possible sources of trace gases over the Pakistan. High concentrations of trace gases are mainly observed over Punjab region, which may be attributed to its metropolitan importance. It is the major agricultural, industrialized and urbanized (nearly 60 % of the Pakistan's population) sector of the country. The expected sources are the agricultural fires, biomass/fossil fuel burning for heating purposes, urbanization, industrialization and meteorological variations. Seasonal variability is observed to explore seasonal patterns over the decade. Well defined seasonal cycles of trace gases are observed over the whole study period. The observed seasonal patterns also showed some noteworthy association among trace gases, which is further explored by different statistical tests. Seasonal Mann Kendall test is applied to test the significance of trend in series whereas correlation is carried out to measure the strength of association among trace gases. Strong correlation is observed for trace gases especially between CO and TOC. Partial Mann Kendall test is used to ideally identify the impact of each covariate on long term trend of CO and TOC by partialling out each correlating trace gas (covariate). It is observed that TOC, NO2 and HCHO has significant impact on long term trend of CO whereas, TOC critically depends on NO2 concentrations for long term increase over the region. Furthermore to explore causal relation, regression analysis is employed to estimate model for CO and TOC. This model numerically estimated the long term association of trace gases over the region.

A novel variational Bayes multiple locus Z-statistic for genome-wide association studies with Bayesian model averaging

PubMed Central

Logsdon, Benjamin A.; Carty, Cara L.; Reiner, Alexander P.; Dai, James Y.; Kooperberg, Charles

2012-01-01

Motivation: For many complex traits, including height, the majority of variants identified by genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have small effects, leaving a significant proportion of the heritable variation unexplained. Although many penalized multiple regression methodologies have been proposed to increase the power to detect associations for complex genetic architectures, they generally lack mechanisms for false-positive control and diagnostics for model over-fitting. Our methodology is the first penalized multiple regression approach that explicitly controls Type I error rates and provide model over-fitting diagnostics through a novel normally distributed statistic defined for every marker within the GWAS, based on results from a variational Bayes spike regression algorithm. Results: We compare the performance of our method to the lasso and single marker analysis on simulated data and demonstrate that our approach has superior performance in terms of power and Type I error control. In addition, using the Women's Health Initiative (WHI) SNP Health Association Resource (SHARe) GWAS of African-Americans, we show that our method has power to detect additional novel associations with body height. These findings replicate by reaching a stringent cutoff of marginal association in a larger cohort. Availability: An R-package, including an implementation of our variational Bayes spike regression (vBsr) algorithm, is available at http://kooperberg.fhcrc.org/soft.html. Contact: blogsdon@fhcrc.org Supplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. PMID:22563072

Predicting birth weight with conditionally linear transformation models.

PubMed

Möst, Lisa; Schmid, Matthias; Faschingbauer, Florian; Hothorn, Torsten

2016-12-01

Low and high birth weight (BW) are important risk factors for neonatal morbidity and mortality. Gynecologists must therefore accurately predict BW before delivery. Most prediction formulas for BW are based on prenatal ultrasound measurements carried out within one week prior to birth. Although successfully used in clinical practice, these formulas focus on point predictions of BW but do not systematically quantify uncertainty of the predictions, i.e. they result in estimates of the conditional mean of BW but do not deliver prediction intervals. To overcome this problem, we introduce conditionally linear transformation models (CLTMs) to predict BW. Instead of focusing only on the conditional mean, CLTMs model the whole conditional distribution function of BW given prenatal ultrasound parameters. Consequently, the CLTM approach delivers both point predictions of BW and fetus-specific prediction intervals. Prediction intervals constitute an easy-to-interpret measure of prediction accuracy and allow identification of fetuses subject to high prediction uncertainty. Using a data set of 8712 deliveries at the Perinatal Centre at the University Clinic Erlangen (Germany), we analyzed variants of CLTMs and compared them to standard linear regression estimation techniques used in the past and to quantile regression approaches. The best-performing CLTM variant was competitive with quantile regression and linear regression approaches in terms of conditional coverage and average length of the prediction intervals. We propose that CLTMs be used because they are able to account for possible heteroscedasticity, kurtosis, and skewness of the distribution of BWs. © The Author(s) 2014.

Generalized Scalar-on-Image Regression Models via Total Variation.

PubMed

Wang, Xiao; Zhu, Hongtu

2017-01-01

The use of imaging markers to predict clinical outcomes can have a great impact in public health. The aim of this paper is to develop a class of generalized scalar-on-image regression models via total variation (GSIRM-TV), in the sense of generalized linear models, for scalar response and imaging predictor with the presence of scalar covariates. A key novelty of GSIRM-TV is that it is assumed that the slope function (or image) of GSIRM-TV belongs to the space of bounded total variation in order to explicitly account for the piecewise smooth nature of most imaging data. We develop an efficient penalized total variation optimization to estimate the unknown slope function and other parameters. We also establish nonasymptotic error bounds on the excess risk. These bounds are explicitly specified in terms of sample size, image size, and image smoothness. Our simulations demonstrate a superior performance of GSIRM-TV against many existing approaches. We apply GSIRM-TV to the analysis of hippocampus data obtained from the Alzheimers Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) dataset.

Intelligent Design of Metal Oxide Gas Sensor Arrays Using Reciprocal Kernel Support Vector Regression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dougherty, Andrew W.

Metal oxides are a staple of the sensor industry. The combination of their sensitivity to a number of gases, and the electrical nature of their sensing mechanism, make the particularly attractive in solid state devices. The high temperature stability of the ceramic material also make them ideal for detecting combustion byproducts where exhaust temperatures can be high. However, problems do exist with metal oxide sensors. They are not very selective as they all tend to be sensitive to a number of reduction and oxidation reactions on the oxide's surface. This makes sensors with large numbers of sensors interesting to study as a method for introducing orthogonality to the system. Also, the sensors tend to suffer from long term drift for a number of reasons. In this thesis I will develop a system for intelligently modeling metal oxide sensors and determining their suitability for use in large arrays designed to analyze exhaust gas streams. It will introduce prior knowledge of the metal oxide sensors' response mechanisms in order to produce a response function for each sensor from sparse training data. The system will use the same technique to model and remove any long term drift from the sensor response. It will also provide an efficient means for determining the orthogonality of the sensor to determine whether they are useful in gas sensing arrays. The system is based on least squares support vector regression using the reciprocal kernel. The reciprocal kernel is introduced along with a method of optimizing the free parameters of the reciprocal kernel support vector machine. The reciprocal kernel is shown to be simpler and to perform better than an earlier kernel, the modified reciprocal kernel. Least squares support vector regression is chosen as it uses all of the training points and an emphasis was placed throughout this research for extracting the maximum information from very sparse data. The reciprocal kernel is shown to be effective in modeling the sensor responses in the time, gas and temperature domains, and the dual representation of the support vector regression solution is shown to provide insight into the sensor's sensitivity and potential orthogonality. Finally, the dual weights of the support vector regression solution to the sensor's response are suggested as a fitness function for a genetic algorithm, or some other method for efficiently searching large parameter spaces.

Assessing spatial inequalities in accessing community pharmacies: a mixed geographically weighted approach.

PubMed

Domnich, Alexander; Arata, Lucia; Amicizia, Daniela; Signori, Alessio; Gasparini, Roberto; Panatto, Donatella

2016-11-16

Geographical accessibility is an important determinant for the utilisation of community pharmacies. The present study explored patterns of spatial accessibility with respect to pharmacies in Liguria, Italy, a region with particular geographical and demographic features. Municipal density of pharmacies was proxied as the number of pharmacies per capita and per km2, and spatial autocorrelation analysis was performed to identify spatial clusters. Both non-spatial and spatial models were constructed to predict the study outcome. Spatial autocorrelation analysis showed a highly significant clustered pattern in the density of pharmacies per capita (I=0.082) and per km2 (I=0.295). Potentially under-supplied areas were mostly located in the mountainous hinterland. Ordinary least-squares (OLS) regressions established a significant positive relationship between the density of pharmacies and income among municipalities located at high altitudes, while no such association was observed in lower-lying areas. However, residuals of the OLS models were spatially auto-correlated. The best-fitting mixed geographically weighted regression (GWR) models outperformed the corresponding OLS models. Pharmacies per capita were best predicted by two local predictors (altitude and proportion of immigrants) and two global ones (proportion of elderly residents and income), while the local terms population, mean altitude and rural status and the global term income functioned as independent variables predicting pharmacies per km2. The density of pharmacies in Liguria was found to be associated with both socio-economic and landscape factors. Mapping of mixed GWR results would be helpful to policy-makers.

The comparison of robust partial least squares regression with robust principal component regression on a real

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Polat, Esra; Gunay, Suleyman

2013-10-01

One of the problems encountered in Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) is multicollinearity, which causes the overestimation of the regression parameters and increase of the variance of these parameters. Hence, in case of multicollinearity presents, biased estimation procedures such as classical Principal Component Regression (CPCR) and Partial Least Squares Regression (PLSR) are then performed. SIMPLS algorithm is the leading PLSR algorithm because of its speed, efficiency and results are easier to interpret. However, both of the CPCR and SIMPLS yield very unreliable results when the data set contains outlying observations. Therefore, Hubert and Vanden Branden (2003) have been presented a robust PCR (RPCR) method and a robust PLSR (RPLSR) method called RSIMPLS. In RPCR, firstly, a robust Principal Component Analysis (PCA) method for high-dimensional data on the independent variables is applied, then, the dependent variables are regressed on the scores using a robust regression method. RSIMPLS has been constructed from a robust covariance matrix for high-dimensional data and robust linear regression. The purpose of this study is to show the usage of RPCR and RSIMPLS methods on an econometric data set, hence, making a comparison of two methods on an inflation model of Turkey. The considered methods have been compared in terms of predictive ability and goodness of fit by using a robust Root Mean Squared Error of Cross-validation (R-RMSECV), a robust R2 value and Robust Component Selection (RCS) statistic.

Long-term forecasting of internet backbone traffic.

PubMed

Papagiannaki, Konstantina; Taft, Nina; Zhang, Zhi-Li; Diot, Christophe

2005-09-01

We introduce a methodology to predict when and where link additions/upgrades have to take place in an Internet protocol (IP) backbone network. Using simple network management protocol (SNMP) statistics, collected continuously since 1999, we compute aggregate demand between any two adjacent points of presence (PoPs) and look at its evolution at time scales larger than 1 h. We show that IP backbone traffic exhibits visible long term trends, strong periodicities, and variability at multiple time scales. Our methodology relies on the wavelet multiresolution analysis (MRA) and linear time series models. Using wavelet MRA, we smooth the collected measurements until we identify the overall long-term trend. The fluctuations around the obtained trend are further analyzed at multiple time scales. We show that the largest amount of variability in the original signal is due to its fluctuations at the 12-h time scale. We model inter-PoP aggregate demand as a multiple linear regression model, consisting of the two identified components. We show that this model accounts for 98% of the total energy in the original signal, while explaining 90% of its variance. Weekly approximations of those components can be accurately modeled with low-order autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models. We show that forecasting the long term trend and the fluctuations of the traffic at the 12-h time scale yields accurate estimates for at least 6 months in the future.

Prevention and treatment of atherosclerosis with flaxseed-derived compound secoisolariciresinol diglucoside.

PubMed

Prasad, Kailash; Jadhav, Ashok

2016-01-01

Atherosclerosis is the primary cause of coronary artery disease, heart attack, strokes, and peripheral vascular disease. Alternative/complimentary medicines, although are unacceptable by medical community, may be of great help in suppression, slowing of progression and regression of atherosclerosis. Numerous natural products are in use for therapy in spite of lack of evidence. This paper discusses the basic mechanism of atherosclerosis, risk factors for atherosclerosis, and prevention, slowing of progression and regression of atherosclerosis with flaxseed-derived secoisolariciresinol diglucoside (SDG). SDG content of flaxseed varies from 6mg/g to 18 mg/g. Flaxseed is the richest source of SDG. SDG possesses antioxidant, antihypertensive, antidiabetic, hypolipidemic, anti-inflammatory and antiatherogenic activities. SDG content of some commonly used food has been described. SDG in very low dose (15 mg/ kg) suppressed the development of hypercholesterolemic atherosclerosis by 73 % and this effect was associated with reduction in serum total cholesterol, LDL-C, and oxidative stress, and an increase in the levels HDL-C. A summary of the effects of flaxseed and its components on hypercholesterolemic atherosclerosis has been provided. Reduction in hypercholesterolemic atherosclerosis by flaxseed, CDC-flaxseed, flaxseed oil, flax lignan complex and SDG are 46 %, 69 %, 0 %, 34 % and 73 % respectively in dietary cholesterol -induced rabbit model of atherosclerosis. SDG slows the progression of atherosclerosis in animal model. Long-term use of SDG regresses hypercholesterolemic atherosclerosis. It is interesting that regular diet following high cholesterol diet accelerates in this animal model of atherosclerosis. In conclusion SDG suppresses, slow the progression and regresses the atherosclerosis. It could serve as an alternative medicine for the prevention, slowing of progression and regression of atherosclerosis and hence for the treatment of coronary artery disease, stroke and peripheral arterial vascular diseases.

The interaction between stratospheric monthly mean regional winds and sporadic-E

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Çetin, Kenan; Özcan, Osman; Korlaelçi, Serhat

2017-03-01

In the present study, a statistical investigation is carried out to explore whether there is a relationship between the critical frequency (foEs) of the sporadic-E layer that is occasionally seen on the E region of the ionosphere and the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) that flows in the east-west direction in the equatorial stratosphere. Multiple regression model as a statistical tool was used to determine the relationship between variables. In this model, the stationarity of the variables (foEs and QBO) was firstly analyzed for each station (Cocos Island, Gibilmanna, Niue Island, and Tahiti). Then, a co-integration test was made to determine the existence of a long-term relationship between QBO and foEs. After verifying the presence of a long-term relationship between the variables, the magnitude of the relationship between variables was further determined using the multiple regression model. As a result, it is concluded that the variations in foEs were explainable with QBO measured at 10 hPa altitude at the rate of 69%, 94%, 79%, and 58% for Cocos Island, Gibilmanna, Niue Island, and Tahiti stations, respectively. It is observed that the variations in foEs were explainable with QBO measured at 70 hPa altitude at the rate of 66%, 69%, 53%, and 47% for Cocos Island, Gibilmanna, Niue Island, and Tahiti stations, respectively.

Mapping health outcome measures from a stroke registry to EQ-5D weights.

PubMed

Ghatnekar, Ola; Eriksson, Marie; Glader, Eva-Lotta

2013-03-07

To map health outcome related variables from a national register, not part of any validated instrument, with EQ-5D weights among stroke patients. We used two cross-sectional data sets including patient characteristics, outcome variables and EQ-5D weights from the national Swedish stroke register. Three regression techniques were used on the estimation set (n=272): ordinary least squares (OLS), Tobit, and censored least absolute deviation (CLAD). The regression coefficients for "dressing", "toileting", "mobility", "mood", "general health" and "proxy-responders" were applied to the validation set (n=272), and the performance was analysed with mean absolute error (MAE) and mean square error (MSE). The number of statistically significant coefficients varied by model, but all models generated consistent coefficients in terms of sign. Mean utility was underestimated in all models (least in OLS) and with lower variation (least in OLS) compared to the observed. The maximum attainable EQ-5D weight ranged from 0.90 (OLS) to 1.00 (Tobit and CLAD). Health states with utility weights <0.5 had greater errors than those with weights ≥ 0.5 (P<0.01). This study indicates that it is possible to map non-validated health outcome measures from a stroke register into preference-based utilities to study the development of stroke care over time, and to compare with other conditions in terms of utility.

Traffic-related air pollution and sleep in the Boston Area Community Health Survey.

PubMed

Fang, Shona C; Schwartz, Joel; Yang, May; Yaggi, H Klar; Bliwise, Donald L; Araujo, Andre B

2015-01-01

Little is known about environmental determinants of sleep. We investigated the association between black carbon (BC), a marker of traffic-related air pollution, and sleep measures among participants of the Boston Area Community Health Survey. We also sought to assess the impact of sociodemographic factors, health conditions, and season on associations. Residential 24-h BC was estimated from a validated land-use regression model for 3821 participants and averaged over 1-6 months and 1 year. Sleep measures included questionnaire-assessed sleep duration, sleep latency, and sleep apnea. Linear and logistic regression models controlling for confounders estimated the association between sleep measures and BC. Effect modification was tested with interaction terms. Main effects were not observed between BC and sleep measures. However, in stratified models, males experienced 0.23 h less sleep (95% CI: -0.42, -0.03) and those with low SES 0.25 h less sleep (95% CI: -0.48, -0.01) per IQR increase in annual BC (0.21 μg/m(3)). In blacks, sleep duration increased with annual BC (β=0.34 per IQR; 95% CI: 0.12, 0.57). Similar findings were observed for short sleep (≤5 h). BC was not associated with sleep apnea or sleep latency, however, long-term exposure may be associated with shorter sleep duration, particularly in men and those with low SES, and longer sleep duration in blacks.

Optimal population prediction of sandhill crane recruitment based on climate-mediated habitat limitations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gerber, Brian D.; Kendall, William L.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Dubovsky, James A.; Drewien, Roderick C.

2015-01-01

Prediction is fundamental to scientific enquiry and application; however, ecologists tend to favour explanatory modelling. We discuss a predictive modelling framework to evaluate ecological hypotheses and to explore novel/unobserved environmental scenarios to assist conservation and management decision-makers. We apply this framework to develop an optimal predictive model for juvenile (<1 year old) sandhill crane Grus canadensis recruitment of the Rocky Mountain Population (RMP). We consider spatial climate predictors motivated by hypotheses of how drought across multiple time-scales and spring/summer weather affects recruitment.Our predictive modelling framework focuses on developing a single model that includes all relevant predictor variables, regardless of collinearity. This model is then optimized for prediction by controlling model complexity using a data-driven approach that marginalizes or removes irrelevant predictors from the model. Specifically, we highlight two approaches of statistical regularization, Bayesian least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and ridge regression.Our optimal predictive Bayesian LASSO and ridge regression models were similar and on average 37% superior in predictive accuracy to an explanatory modelling approach. Our predictive models confirmed a priori hypotheses that drought and cold summers negatively affect juvenile recruitment in the RMP. The effects of long-term drought can be alleviated by short-term wet spring–summer months; however, the alleviation of long-term drought has a much greater positive effect on juvenile recruitment. The number of freezing days and snowpack during the summer months can also negatively affect recruitment, while spring snowpack has a positive effect.Breeding habitat, mediated through climate, is a limiting factor on population growth of sandhill cranes in the RMP, which could become more limiting with a changing climate (i.e. increased drought). These effects are likely not unique to cranes. The alteration of hydrological patterns and water levels by drought may impact many migratory, wetland nesting birds in the Rocky Mountains and beyond.Generalizable predictive models (trained by out-of-sample fit and based on ecological hypotheses) are needed by conservation and management decision-makers. Statistical regularization improves predictions and provides a general framework for fitting models with a large number of predictors, even those with collinearity, to simultaneously identify an optimal predictive model while conducting rigorous Bayesian model selection. Our framework is important for understanding population dynamics under a changing climate and has direct applications for making harvest and habitat management decisions.

Correlates of motivation to change in pathological gamblers completing cognitive-behavioral group therapy.

PubMed

Gómez-Peña, Mónica; Penelo, Eva; Granero, Roser; Fernández-Aranda, Fernando; Alvarez-Moya, Eva; Santamaría, Juan José; Moragas, Laura; Neus Aymamí, Maria; Gunnard, Katarina; Menchón, José M; Jimenez-Murcia, Susana

2012-07-01

The present study analyzes the association between the motivation to change and the cognitive-behavioral group intervention, in terms of dropouts and relapses, in a sample of male pathological gamblers. The specific objectives were as follows: (a) to estimate the predictive value of baseline University of Rhode Island Change Assessment scale (URICA) scores (i.e., at the start of the study) as regards the risk of relapse and dropout during treatment and (b) to assess the incremental predictive ability of URICA scores, as regards the mean change produced in the clinical status of patients between the start and finish of treatment. The relationship between the URICA and the response to treatment was analyzed by means of a pre-post design applied to a sample of 191 patients who were consecutively receiving cognitive-behavioral group therapy. The statistical analysis included logistic regression models and hierarchical multiple linear regression models. The discriminative ability of the models including the four URICA scores regarding the likelihood of relapse and dropout was acceptable (area under the receiver operating haracteristic curve: .73 and .71, respectively). No significant predictive ability was found as regards the differences between baseline and posttreatment scores (changes in R(2) below 5% in the multiple regression models). The availability of useful measures of motivation to change would enable treatment outcomes to be optimized through the application of specific therapeutic interventions. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Breast Arterial Calcification Is Associated with Reproductive Factors in Asymptomatic Postmenopausal Women

PubMed Central

Whaley, Dana H.; Sheedy, Patrick F.; Peyser, Patricia A.

2010-01-01

Abstract Objective The etiology of breast arterial calcification (BAC) is not well understood. We examined reproductive history and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factor associations with the presence of detectable BAC in asymptomatic postmenopausal women. Methods Reproductive history and CVD risk factors were obtained in 240 asymptomatic postmenopausal women from a community-based research study who had a screening mammogram within 2 years of their participation in the study. The mammograms were reviewed for the presence of detectable BAC. Age-adjusted logistic regression models were fit to assess the association between each risk factor and the presence of BAC. Multiple variable logistic regression models were used to identify the most parsimonious model for the presence of BAC. Results The prevalence of BAC increased with increased age (p < 0.0001). The most parsimonious logistic regression model for BAC presence included age at time of examination, increased parity (p = 0.01), earlier age at first birth (p = 0.002), weight, and an age-by-weight interaction term (p = 0.004). Older women with a smaller body size had a higher probability of having BAC than women of the same age with a larger body size. Conclusions The presence or absence of BAC at mammography may provide an assessment of a postmenopausal woman's lifetime estrogen exposure and indicate women who could be at risk for hormonally related conditions. PMID:20629578

3D statistical shape models incorporating 3D random forest regression voting for robust CT liver segmentation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Norajitra, Tobias; Meinzer, Hans-Peter; Maier-Hein, Klaus H.

2015-03-01

During image segmentation, 3D Statistical Shape Models (SSM) usually conduct a limited search for target landmarks within one-dimensional search profiles perpendicular to the model surface. In addition, landmark appearance is modeled only locally based on linear profiles and weak learners, altogether leading to segmentation errors from landmark ambiguities and limited search coverage. We present a new method for 3D SSM segmentation based on 3D Random Forest Regression Voting. For each surface landmark, a Random Regression Forest is trained that learns a 3D spatial displacement function between the according reference landmark and a set of surrounding sample points, based on an infinite set of non-local randomized 3D Haar-like features. Landmark search is then conducted omni-directionally within 3D search spaces, where voxelwise forest predictions on landmark position contribute to a common voting map which reflects the overall position estimate. Segmentation experiments were conducted on a set of 45 CT volumes of the human liver, of which 40 images were randomly chosen for training and 5 for testing. Without parameter optimization, using a simple candidate selection and a single resolution approach, excellent results were achieved, while faster convergence and better concavity segmentation were observed, altogether underlining the potential of our approach in terms of increased robustness from distinct landmark detection and from better search coverage.

Estimating probabilities of infestation and extent of damage by the roundheaded pine beetle in ponderosa pine in the Sacramento Mountains, New Mexico

Treesearch

Jose Negron

1997-01-01

Classification trees and linear regression analysis were used to build models to predict probabilities of infestation and amount of tree mortality in terms of basal area resulting from roundheaded pine beetle, Dendroctonus adjunctus Blandford, activity in ponderosa pine, Pinus ponderosa Laws., in the Sacramento Mountains, New Mexico. Classification trees were built for...

Basal area increment and growth efficiency as functions of canopy dynamics and stem mechanics

Treesearch

Thomas J. Dean

2004-01-01

Crown and canopy structurecorrelate with growth efficiency and also determine stem size and taper as described by the uniform stress principle of stem formation. A regression model was derived from this principle that expresses basal area increment in terms of the amount and vertical distribution of leaf area and change in these variables during a growth period. This...

Weight Fluctuation and Postmenopausal Breast Cancer in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey I Epidemiologic Follow-Up Study.

PubMed

Komaroff, Marina

2016-01-01

The aim of this study is to investigate if weight fluctuation is an independent risk factor for postmenopausal breast cancer (PBC) among women who gained weight in adult years. NHANES I Epidemiologic Follow-Up Study (NHEFS) database was used in the study. Women that were cancers-free at enrollment and diagnosed for the first time with breast cancer at age 50 or greater were considered cases. Controls were chosen from the subset of cancers-free women and matched to cases by years of follow-up and status of body mass index (BMI) at 25 years of age. Weight fluctuation was measured by the root-mean-square-error (RMSE) from a simple linear regression model for each woman with their body mass index (BMI) regressed on age (started at 25 years) while women with the positive slope from this regression were defined as weight gainers. Data were analyzed using conditional logistic regression models. A total of 158 women were included into the study. The conditional logistic regression adjusted for weight gain demonstrated positive association between weight fluctuation in adult years and postmenopausal breast cancers (odds ratio/OR = 1.67; 95% confidence interval/CI: 1.06-2.66). The data suggested that long-term weight fluctuation was significant risk factor for PBC among women who gained weight in adult years. This finding underscores the importance of maintaining lost weight and avoiding weight fluctuation.

Weight Fluctuation and Postmenopausal Breast Cancer in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey I Epidemiologic Follow-Up Study

PubMed Central

Komaroff, Marina

2016-01-01

Objective. The aim of this study is to investigate if weight fluctuation is an independent risk factor for postmenopausal breast cancer (PBC) among women who gained weight in adult years. Methods. NHANES I Epidemiologic Follow-Up Study (NHEFS) database was used in the study. Women that were cancers-free at enrollment and diagnosed for the first time with breast cancer at age 50 or greater were considered cases. Controls were chosen from the subset of cancers-free women and matched to cases by years of follow-up and status of body mass index (BMI) at 25 years of age. Weight fluctuation was measured by the root-mean-square-error (RMSE) from a simple linear regression model for each woman with their body mass index (BMI) regressed on age (started at 25 years) while women with the positive slope from this regression were defined as weight gainers. Data were analyzed using conditional logistic regression models. Results. A total of 158 women were included into the study. The conditional logistic regression adjusted for weight gain demonstrated positive association between weight fluctuation in adult years and postmenopausal breast cancers (odds ratio/OR = 1.67; 95% confidence interval/CI: 1.06–2.66). Conclusions. The data suggested that long-term weight fluctuation was significant risk factor for PBC among women who gained weight in adult years. This finding underscores the importance of maintaining lost weight and avoiding weight fluctuation. PMID:26953120

Assessing the prediction accuracy of a cure model for censored survival data with long-term survivors: Application to breast cancer data.

PubMed

Asano, Junichi; Hirakawa, Akihiro

2017-01-01

The Cox proportional hazards cure model is a survival model incorporating a cure rate with the assumption that the population contains both uncured and cured individuals. It contains a logistic regression for the cure rate, and a Cox regression to estimate the hazard for uncured patients. A single predictive model for both the cure and hazard can be developed by using a cure model that simultaneously predicts the cure rate and hazards for uncured patients; however, model selection is a challenge because of the lack of a measure for quantifying the predictive accuracy of a cure model. Recently, we developed an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for determining the cure rate in a cure model (Asano et al., 2014), but the hazards measure for uncured patients was not resolved. In this article, we propose novel C-statistics that are weighted by the patients' cure status (i.e., cured, uncured, or censored cases) for the cure model. The operating characteristics of the proposed C-statistics and their confidence interval were examined by simulation analyses. We also illustrate methods for predictive model selection and for further interpretation of variables using the proposed AUCs and C-statistics via application to breast cancer data.

Multivariate random-parameters zero-inflated negative binomial regression model: an application to estimate crash frequencies at intersections.

PubMed

Dong, Chunjiao; Clarke, David B; Yan, Xuedong; Khattak, Asad; Huang, Baoshan

2014-09-01

Crash data are collected through police reports and integrated with road inventory data for further analysis. Integrated police reports and inventory data yield correlated multivariate data for roadway entities (e.g., segments or intersections). Analysis of such data reveals important relationships that can help focus on high-risk situations and coming up with safety countermeasures. To understand relationships between crash frequencies and associated variables, while taking full advantage of the available data, multivariate random-parameters models are appropriate since they can simultaneously consider the correlation among the specific crash types and account for unobserved heterogeneity. However, a key issue that arises with correlated multivariate data is the number of crash-free samples increases, as crash counts have many categories. In this paper, we describe a multivariate random-parameters zero-inflated negative binomial (MRZINB) regression model for jointly modeling crash counts. The full Bayesian method is employed to estimate the model parameters. Crash frequencies at urban signalized intersections in Tennessee are analyzed. The paper investigates the performance of MZINB and MRZINB regression models in establishing the relationship between crash frequencies, pavement conditions, traffic factors, and geometric design features of roadway intersections. Compared to the MZINB model, the MRZINB model identifies additional statistically significant factors and provides better goodness of fit in developing the relationships. The empirical results show that MRZINB model possesses most of the desirable statistical properties in terms of its ability to accommodate unobserved heterogeneity and excess zero counts in correlated data. Notably, in the random-parameters MZINB model, the estimated parameters vary significantly across intersections for different crash types. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Does transport time help explain the high trauma mortality rates in rural areas? New and traditional predictors assessed by new and traditional statistical methods

PubMed Central

Røislien, Jo; Lossius, Hans Morten; Kristiansen, Thomas

2015-01-01

Background Trauma is a leading global cause of death. Trauma mortality rates are higher in rural areas, constituting a challenge for quality and equality in trauma care. The aim of the study was to explore population density and transport time to hospital care as possible predictors of geographical differences in mortality rates, and to what extent choice of statistical method might affect the analytical results and accompanying clinical conclusions. Methods Using data from the Norwegian Cause of Death registry, deaths from external causes 1998–2007 were analysed. Norway consists of 434 municipalities, and municipality population density and travel time to hospital care were entered as predictors of municipality mortality rates in univariate and multiple regression models of increasing model complexity. We fitted linear regression models with continuous and categorised predictors, as well as piecewise linear and generalised additive models (GAMs). Models were compared using Akaike's information criterion (AIC). Results Population density was an independent predictor of trauma mortality rates, while the contribution of transport time to hospital care was highly dependent on choice of statistical model. A multiple GAM or piecewise linear model was superior, and similar, in terms of AIC. However, while transport time was statistically significant in multiple models with piecewise linear or categorised predictors, it was not in GAM or standard linear regression. Conclusions Population density is an independent predictor of trauma mortality rates. The added explanatory value of transport time to hospital care is marginal and model-dependent, highlighting the importance of exploring several statistical models when studying complex associations in observational data. PMID:25972600

Representational change and strategy use in children's number line estimation during the first years of primary school.

PubMed

White, Sonia L J; Szűcs, Dénes

2012-01-04

The objective of this study was to scrutinize number line estimation behaviors displayed by children in mathematics classrooms during the first three years of schooling. We extend existing research by not only mapping potential logarithmic-linear shifts but also provide a new perspective by studying in detail the estimation strategies of individual target digits within a number range familiar to children. Typically developing children (n = 67) from Years 1-3 completed a number-to-position numerical estimation task (0-20 number line). Estimation behaviors were first analyzed via logarithmic and linear regression modeling. Subsequently, using an analysis of variance we compared the estimation accuracy of each digit, thus identifying target digits that were estimated with the assistance of arithmetic strategy. Our results further confirm a developmental logarithmic-linear shift when utilizing regression modeling; however, uniquely we have identified that children employ variable strategies when completing numerical estimation, with levels of strategy advancing with development. In terms of the existing cognitive research, this strategy factor highlights the limitations of any regression modeling approach, or alternatively, it could underpin the developmental time course of the logarithmic-linear shift. Future studies need to systematically investigate this relationship and also consider the implications for educational practice.

Representational change and strategy use in children's number line estimation during the first years of primary school

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background The objective of this study was to scrutinize number line estimation behaviors displayed by children in mathematics classrooms during the first three years of schooling. We extend existing research by not only mapping potential logarithmic-linear shifts but also provide a new perspective by studying in detail the estimation strategies of individual target digits within a number range familiar to children. Methods Typically developing children (n = 67) from Years 1-3 completed a number-to-position numerical estimation task (0-20 number line). Estimation behaviors were first analyzed via logarithmic and linear regression modeling. Subsequently, using an analysis of variance we compared the estimation accuracy of each digit, thus identifying target digits that were estimated with the assistance of arithmetic strategy. Results Our results further confirm a developmental logarithmic-linear shift when utilizing regression modeling; however, uniquely we have identified that children employ variable strategies when completing numerical estimation, with levels of strategy advancing with development. Conclusion In terms of the existing cognitive research, this strategy factor highlights the limitations of any regression modeling approach, or alternatively, it could underpin the developmental time course of the logarithmic-linear shift. Future studies need to systematically investigate this relationship and also consider the implications for educational practice. PMID:22217191

Everyday attention lapses and memory failures: the affective consequences of mindlessness.

PubMed

Carriere, Jonathan S A; Cheyne, J Allan; Smilek, Daniel

2008-09-01

We examined the affective consequences of everyday attention lapses and memory failures. Significant associations were found between self-report measures of attention lapses (MAAS-LO), attention-related cognitive errors (ARCES), and memory failures (MFS), on the one hand, and boredom (BPS) and depression (BDI-II), on the other. Regression analyses confirmed previous findings that the ARCES partially mediates the relation between the MAAS-LO and MFS. Further regression analyses also indicated that the association between the ARCES and BPS was entirely accounted for by the MAAS-LO and MFS, as was that between the ARCES and BDI-II. Structural modeling revealed the associations to be optimally explained by the MAAS-LO and MFS influencing the BPS and BDI-II, contrary to current conceptions of attention and memory problems as consequences of affective dysfunction. A lack of conscious awareness of one's actions, signaled by the propensity to experience brief lapses of attention and related memory failures, is thus seen as having significant consequences in terms of long-term affective well-being.

Mining pharmacovigilance data using Bayesian logistic regression with James-Stein type shrinkage estimation.

PubMed

An, Lihua; Fung, Karen Y; Krewski, Daniel

2010-09-01

Spontaneous adverse event reporting systems are widely used to identify adverse reactions to drugs following their introduction into the marketplace. In this article, a James-Stein type shrinkage estimation strategy was developed in a Bayesian logistic regression model to analyze pharmacovigilance data. This method is effective in detecting signals as it combines information and borrows strength across medically related adverse events. Computer simulation demonstrated that the shrinkage estimator is uniformly better than the maximum likelihood estimator in terms of mean squared error. This method was used to investigate the possible association of a series of diabetic drugs and the risk of cardiovascular events using data from the Canada Vigilance Online Database.

Additive-Multiplicative Approximation of Genotype-Environment Interaction

PubMed Central

Gimelfarb, A.

1994-01-01

A model of genotype-environment interaction in quantitative traits is considered. The model represents an expansion of the traditional additive (first degree polynomial) approximation of genotypic and environmental effects to a second degree polynomial incorporating a multiplicative term besides the additive terms. An experimental evaluation of the model is suggested and applied to a trait in Drosophila melanogaster. The environmental variance of a genotype in the model is shown to be a function of the genotypic value: it is a convex parabola. The broad sense heritability in a population depends not only on the genotypic and environmental variances, but also on the position of the genotypic mean in the population relative to the minimum of the parabola. It is demonstrated, using the model, that GXE interaction rectional may cause a substantial non-linearity in offspring-parent regression and a reversed response to directional selection. It is also shown that directional selection may be accompanied by an increase in the heritability. PMID:7896113

Investigation of Hydrogen Sulfide Exposure and Lung Function, Asthma and Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease in a Geothermal Area of New Zealand

PubMed Central

Bates, Michael N.; Crane, Julian; Balmes, John R.; Garrett, Nick

2015-01-01

Background Results have been conflicting whether long-term ambient hydrogen sulfide (H2S) affects lung function or is a risk factor for asthma or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Rotorua city, New Zealand, has the world’s largest population exposed to ambient H2S—from geothermal sources. Objectives We investigated associations of H2S with lung function, COPD and asthma in this population. Methods 1,204 of 1,639 study participants, aged 18–65 years during 2008–2010, provided satisfactory spirometry results. Residences, workplaces and schools over the last 30 years were geocoded. Exposures were estimated from data collected by summer and winter H2S monitoring networks across Rotorua. Four metrics for H2S exposure, representing both current and long-term (last 30 years) exposure, and also time-weighted average and peak exposures, were calculated. Departures from expected values for pre-bronchodilator lung function, calculated from prediction equations, were outcomes for linear regression models using quartiles of the H2S exposure metrics. Separate models examined participants with and without evidence of asthma or COPD, and never- and ever-smokers. Logistic regression was used to investigate associations of COPD (a post-bronchodilator FEV1/FVC < 70% of expected) and asthma (doctor-diagnosed or by FEV1 response to bronchodilator) with H2S exposure quartiles. Results None of the exposure metrics produced evidence of lung function decrement. The logistic regression analysis showed no evidence that long-term H2S exposure at Rotorua levels was associated with either increased COPD or asthma risk. Some results suggested that recent ambient H2S exposures were beneficially associated with lung function parameters. Conclusions The study found no evidence of reductions in lung function, or increased risk of COPD or asthma, from recent or long-term H2S exposure at the relatively high ambient concentrations found in Rotorua. Suggestions of improved lung function associated with recent ambient H2S exposures require confirmation in other studies. PMID:25822819

Investigation of hydrogen sulfide exposure and lung function, asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in a geothermal area of New Zealand.

PubMed

Bates, Michael N; Crane, Julian; Balmes, John R; Garrett, Nick

2015-01-01

Results have been conflicting whether long-term ambient hydrogen sulfide (H2S) affects lung function or is a risk factor for asthma or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Rotorua city, New Zealand, has the world's largest population exposed to ambient H2S-from geothermal sources. We investigated associations of H2S with lung function, COPD and asthma in this population. 1,204 of 1,639 study participants, aged 18-65 years during 2008-2010, provided satisfactory spirometry results. Residences, workplaces and schools over the last 30 years were geocoded. Exposures were estimated from data collected by summer and winter H2S monitoring networks across Rotorua. Four metrics for H2S exposure, representing both current and long-term (last 30 years) exposure, and also time-weighted average and peak exposures, were calculated. Departures from expected values for pre-bronchodilator lung function, calculated from prediction equations, were outcomes for linear regression models using quartiles of the H2S exposure metrics. Separate models examined participants with and without evidence of asthma or COPD, and never- and ever-smokers. Logistic regression was used to investigate associations of COPD (a post-bronchodilator FEV1/FVC < 70% of expected) and asthma (doctor-diagnosed or by FEV1 response to bronchodilator) with H2S exposure quartiles. None of the exposure metrics produced evidence of lung function decrement. The logistic regression analysis showed no evidence that long-term H2S exposure at Rotorua levels was associated with either increased COPD or asthma risk. Some results suggested that recent ambient H2S exposures were beneficially associated with lung function parameters. The study found no evidence of reductions in lung function, or increased risk of COPD or asthma, from recent or long-term H2S exposure at the relatively high ambient concentrations found in Rotorua. Suggestions of improved lung function associated with recent ambient H2S exposures require confirmation in other studies.

A comparison of adaptive sampling designs and binary spatial models: A simulation study using a census of Bromus inermis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Irvine, Kathryn M.; Thornton, Jamie; Backus, Vickie M.; Hohmann, Matthew G.; Lehnhoff, Erik A.; Maxwell, Bruce D.; Michels, Kurt; Rew, Lisa

2013-01-01

Commonly in environmental and ecological studies, species distribution data are recorded as presence or absence throughout a spatial domain of interest. Field based studies typically collect observations by sampling a subset of the spatial domain. We consider the effects of six different adaptive and two non-adaptive sampling designs and choice of three binary models on both predictions to unsampled locations and parameter estimation of the regression coefficients (species–environment relationships). Our simulation study is unique compared to others to date in that we virtually sample a true known spatial distribution of a nonindigenous plant species, Bromus inermis. The census of B. inermis provides a good example of a species distribution that is both sparsely (1.9 % prevalence) and patchily distributed. We find that modeling the spatial correlation using a random effect with an intrinsic Gaussian conditionally autoregressive prior distribution was equivalent or superior to Bayesian autologistic regression in terms of predicting to un-sampled areas when strip adaptive cluster sampling was used to survey B. inermis. However, inferences about the relationships between B. inermis presence and environmental predictors differed between the two spatial binary models. The strip adaptive cluster designs we investigate provided a significant advantage in terms of Markov chain Monte Carlo chain convergence when trying to model a sparsely distributed species across a large area. In general, there was little difference in the choice of neighborhood, although the adaptive king was preferred when transects were randomly placed throughout the spatial domain.

[Acute kidney injury after pediatric cardiac surgery: risk factors and outcomes. Proposal for a predictive model].

PubMed

Cardoso, Bárbara; Laranjo, Sérgio; Gomes, Inês; Freitas, Isabel; Trigo, Conceição; Fragata, Isabel; Fragata, José; Pinto, Fátima

2016-02-01

To characterize the epidemiology and risk factors for acute kidney injury (AKI) after pediatric cardiac surgery in our center, to determine its association with poor short-term outcomes, and to develop a logistic regression model that will predict the risk of AKI for the study population. This single-center, retrospective study included consecutive pediatric patients with congenital heart disease who underwent cardiac surgery between January 2010 and December 2012. Exclusion criteria were a history of renal disease, dialysis or renal transplantation. Of the 325 patients included, median age three years (1 day-18 years), AKI occurred in 40 (12.3%) on the first postoperative day. Overall mortality was 13 (4%), nine of whom were in the AKI group. AKI was significantly associated with length of intensive care unit stay, length of mechanical ventilation and in-hospital death (p<0.01). Patients' age and postoperative serum creatinine, blood urea nitrogen and lactate levels were included in the logistic regression model as predictor variables. The model accurately predicted AKI in this population, with a maximum combined sensitivity of 82.1% and specificity of 75.4%. AKI is common and is associated with poor short-term outcomes in this setting. Younger age and higher postoperative serum creatinine, blood urea nitrogen and lactate levels were powerful predictors of renal injury in this population. The proposed model could be a useful tool for risk stratification of these patients. Copyright © 2015 Sociedade Portuguesa de Cardiologia. Published by Elsevier España. All rights reserved.

Long term high resolution rainfall runoff observations for improved water balance uncertainty and database QA-QC in the Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bitew, M. M.; Goodrich, D. C.; Demaria, E.; Heilman, P.; Kautz, M. A.

2017-12-01

Walnut Gulch is a semi-arid environment experimental watershed and Long Term Agro-ecosystem Research (LTAR) site managed by USDA-ARS Southwest Watershed Research Center for which high-resolution long-term hydro-climatic data are available across its 150 km2 drainage area. In this study, we present the analysis of 50 years of continuous hourly rainfall data to evaluate runoff control and generation processes for improving the QA-QC plans of Walnut Gulch to create high-quality data set that is critical for reducing water balance uncertainties. Multiple linear regression models were developed to relate rainfall properties, runoff characteristics and watershed properties. The rainfall properties were summarized to event based total depth, maximum intensity, duration, the location of the storm center with respect to the outlet, and storm size normalized to watershed area. We evaluated the interaction between the runoff and rainfall and runoff as antecedent moisture condition (AMC), antecedent runoff condition (ARC) and, runoff depth and duration for each rainfall events. We summarized each of the watershed properties such as contributing area, slope, shape, channel length, stream density, channel flow area, and percent of the area of retention stock ponds for each of the nested catchments in Walnut Gulch. The evaluation of the model using basic and categorical statistics showed good predictive skill throughout the watersheds. The model produced correlation coefficients ranging from 0.4-0.94, Nash efficiency coefficients up to 0.77, and Kling-Gupta coefficients ranging from 0.4 to 0.98. The model predicted 92% of all runoff generations and 98% of no-runoff across all sub-watersheds in Walnut Gulch. The regression model also indicated good potential to complement the QA-QC procedures in place for Walnut Gulch dataset publications developed over the years since the 1960s through identification of inconsistencies in rainfall and runoff relations.

Long-Term Ozone Exposure and Mortality in a Large Prospective Study

PubMed Central

Jerrett, Michael; Pope, C. Arden; Krewski, Daniel; Gapstur, Susan M.; Diver, W. Ryan; Beckerman, Bernardo S.; Marshall, Julian D.; Su, Jason; Crouse, Daniel L.; Burnett, Richard T.

2016-01-01

Rationale: Tropospheric ozone (O3) is potentially associated with cardiovascular disease risk and premature death. Results from long-term epidemiological studies on O3 are scarce and inconclusive. Objectives: In this study, we examined associations between chronic ambient O3 exposure and all-cause and cause-specific mortality in a large cohort of U.S. adults. Methods: Cancer Prevention Study II participants were enrolled in 1982. A total of 669,046 participants were analyzed, among whom 237,201 deaths occurred through 2004. We obtained estimates of O3 concentrations at the participant’s residence from a hierarchical Bayesian space–time model. Estimates of fine particulate matter (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of up to 2.5 μm [PM2.5]) and NO2 concentrations were obtained from land use regression. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to examine mortality associations adjusted for individual- and ecological-level covariates. Measurements and Main Results: In single-pollutant models, we observed significant positive associations between O3, PM2.5, and NO2 concentrations and all-cause and cause-specific mortality. In two-pollutant models adjusted for PM2.5, significant positive associations remained between O3 and all-cause (hazard ratio [HR] per 10 ppb, 1.02; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.01–1.04), circulatory (HR, 1.03; 95% CI, 1.01–1.05), and respiratory mortality (HR, 1.12; 95% CI, 1.08–1.16) that were unchanged with further adjustment for NO2. We also observed positive mortality associations with both PM2.5 (both near source and regional) and NO2 in multipollutant models. Conclusions: Findings derived from this large-scale prospective study suggest that long-term ambient O3 contributes to risk of respiratory and circulatory mortality. Substantial health and environmental benefits may be achieved by implementing further measures aimed at controlling O3 concentrations. PMID:26680605

Racial/Ethnic Disparities in Depressive Symptoms Among Pregnant Women Vary by Income and Neighborhood Poverty.

PubMed

Cubbin, Catherine; Heck, Katherine; Powell, Tara; Marchi, Kristen; Braveman, Paula

2015-01-01

We examined racial/ethnic disparities in depressive symptoms during pregnancy among a population-based sample of childbearing women in California (N = 24,587). We hypothesized that these racial/ethnic disparities would be eliminated when comparing women with similar incomes and neighborhood poverty environments. Neighborhood poverty trajectory descriptions were linked with survey data measuring age, parity, race/ethnicity, marital status, education, income, and depressive symptoms. We constructed logistic regression models among the overall sample to examine both crude and adjusted racial/ethnic disparities in feeling depressed. Next, stratified adjusted logistic regression models were constructed to examine racial/ethnic disparities in feeling depressed among women of similar income levels living in similar neighborhood poverty environments. We found that racial/ethnic disparities in feeling depressed remained only among women who were not poor themselves and who lived in long-term moderate or low poverty neighborhoods.

Further comments on sensitivities, parameter estimation, and sampling design in one-dimensional analysis of solute transport in porous media

USGS Publications Warehouse

Knopman, Debra S.; Voss, Clifford I.

1988-01-01

Sensitivities of solute concentration to parameters associated with first-order chemical decay, boundary conditions, initial conditions, and multilayer transport are examined in one-dimensional analytical models of transient solute transport in porous media. A sensitivity is a change in solute concentration resulting from a change in a model parameter. Sensitivity analysis is important because minimum information required in regression on chemical data for the estimation of model parameters by regression is expressed in terms of sensitivities. Nonlinear regression models of solute transport were tested on sets of noiseless observations from known models that exceeded the minimum sensitivity information requirements. Results demonstrate that the regression models consistently converged to the correct parameters when the initial sets of parameter values substantially deviated from the correct parameters. On the basis of the sensitivity analysis, several statements may be made about design of sampling for parameter estimation for the models examined: (1) estimation of parameters associated with solute transport in the individual layers of a multilayer system is possible even when solute concentrations in the individual layers are mixed in an observation well; (2) when estimating parameters in a decaying upstream boundary condition, observations are best made late in the passage of the front near a time chosen by adding the inverse of an hypothesized value of the source decay parameter to the estimated mean travel time at a given downstream location; (3) estimation of a first-order chemical decay parameter requires observations to be made late in the passage of the front, preferably near a location corresponding to a travel time of √2 times the half-life of the solute; and (4) estimation of a parameter relating to spatial variability in an initial condition requires observations to be made early in time relative to passage of the solute front.

Round Robin evaluation of soil moisture retrieval models for the MetOp-A ASCAT Instrument

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gruber, Alexander; Paloscia, Simonetta; Santi, Emanuele; Notarnicola, Claudia; Pasolli, Luca; Smolander, Tuomo; Pulliainen, Jouni; Mittelbach, Heidi; Dorigo, Wouter; Wagner, Wolfgang

2014-05-01

Global soil moisture observations are crucial to understand hydrologic processes, earth-atmosphere interactions and climate variability. ESA's Climate Change Initiative (CCI) project aims to create a global consistent long-term soil moisture data set based on the merging of the best available active and passive satellite-based microwave sensors and retrieval algorithms. Within the CCI, a Round Robin evaluation of existing retrieval algorithms for both active and passive instruments was carried out. In this study we present the comparison of five different retrieval algorithms covering three different modelling principles applied to active MetOp-A ASCAT L1 backscatter data. These models include statistical models (Bayesian Regression and Support Vector Regression, provided by the Institute for Applied Remote Sensing, Eurac Research Viale Druso, Italy, and an Artificial Neural Network, provided by the Institute of Applied Physics, CNR-IFAC, Italy), a semi-empirical model (provided by the Finnish Meteorological Institute), and a change detection model (provided by the Vienna University of Technology). The algorithms were applied on L1 backscatter data within the period of 2007-2011, resampled to a 12.5 km grid. The evaluation was performed over 75 globally distributed, quality controlled in situ stations drawn from the International Soil Moisture Network (ISMN) using surface soil moisture data from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS-) Noah land surface model as second independent reference. The temporal correlation between the data sets was analyzed and random errors of the the different algorithms were estimated using the triple collocation method. Absolute soil moisture values as well as soil moisture anomalies were considered including both long-term anomalies from the mean seasonal cycle and short-term anomalies from a five weeks moving average window. Results show a very high agreement between all five algorithms for most stations. A slight vegetation dependency of the errors and a spatial decorrelation of the performance patterns of the different algorithms was found. We conclude that future research should focus on understanding, combining and exploiting the advantages of all available modelling approaches rather than trying to optimize one approach to fit every possible condition.

A binary genetic programing model for teleconnection identification between global sea surface temperature and local maximum monthly rainfall events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Danandeh Mehr, Ali; Nourani, Vahid; Hrnjica, Bahrudin; Molajou, Amir

2017-12-01

The effectiveness of genetic programming (GP) for solving regression problems in hydrology has been recognized in recent studies. However, its capability to solve classification problems has not been sufficiently explored so far. This study develops and applies a novel classification-forecasting model, namely Binary GP (BGP), for teleconnection studies between sea surface temperature (SST) variations and maximum monthly rainfall (MMR) events. The BGP integrates certain types of data pre-processing and post-processing methods with conventional GP engine to enhance its ability to solve both regression and classification problems simultaneously. The model was trained and tested using SST series of Black Sea, Mediterranean Sea, and Red Sea as potential predictors as well as classified MMR events at two locations in Iran as predictand. Skill of the model was measured in regard to different rainfall thresholds and SST lags and compared to that of the hybrid decision tree-association rule (DTAR) model available in the literature. The results indicated that the proposed model can identify potential teleconnection signals of surrounding seas beneficial to long-term forecasting of the occurrence of the classified MMR events.

Numerically accurate computational techniques for optimal estimator analyses of multi-parameter models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berger, Lukas; Kleinheinz, Konstantin; Attili, Antonio; Bisetti, Fabrizio; Pitsch, Heinz; Mueller, Michael E.

2018-05-01

Modelling unclosed terms in partial differential equations typically involves two steps: First, a set of known quantities needs to be specified as input parameters for a model, and second, a specific functional form needs to be defined to model the unclosed terms by the input parameters. Both steps involve a certain modelling error, with the former known as the irreducible error and the latter referred to as the functional error. Typically, only the total modelling error, which is the sum of functional and irreducible error, is assessed, but the concept of the optimal estimator enables the separate analysis of the total and the irreducible errors, yielding a systematic modelling error decomposition. In this work, attention is paid to the techniques themselves required for the practical computation of irreducible errors. Typically, histograms are used for optimal estimator analyses, but this technique is found to add a non-negligible spurious contribution to the irreducible error if models with multiple input parameters are assessed. Thus, the error decomposition of an optimal estimator analysis becomes inaccurate, and misleading conclusions concerning modelling errors may be drawn. In this work, numerically accurate techniques for optimal estimator analyses are identified and a suitable evaluation of irreducible errors is presented. Four different computational techniques are considered: a histogram technique, artificial neural networks, multivariate adaptive regression splines, and an additive model based on a kernel method. For multiple input parameter models, only artificial neural networks and multivariate adaptive regression splines are found to yield satisfactorily accurate results. Beyond a certain number of input parameters, the assessment of models in an optimal estimator analysis even becomes practically infeasible if histograms are used. The optimal estimator analysis in this paper is applied to modelling the filtered soot intermittency in large eddy simulations using a dataset of a direct numerical simulation of a non-premixed sooting turbulent flame.

Land-use regression with long-term satellite-based greenness index and culture-specific sources to model PM2.5 spatial-temporal variability.

PubMed

Wu, Chih-Da; Chen, Yu-Cheng; Pan, Wen-Chi; Zeng, Yu-Ting; Chen, Mu-Jean; Guo, Yue Leon; Lung, Shih-Chun Candice

2017-05-01

This study utilized a long-term satellite-based vegetation index, and considered culture-specific emission sources (temples and Chinese restaurants) with Land-use Regression (LUR) modelling to estimate the spatial-temporal variability of PM 2.5 using data from Taipei metropolis, which exhibits typical Asian city characteristics. Annual average PM 2.5 concentrations from 2006 to 2012 of 17 air quality monitoring stations established by Environmental Protection Administration of Taiwan were used for model development. PM 2.5 measurements from 2013 were used for external data verification. Monthly Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) images coupled with buffer analysis were used to assess the spatial-temporal variations of greenness surrounding the monitoring sites. The distribution of temples and Chinese restaurants were included to represent the emission contributions from incense and joss money burning, and gas cooking, respectively. Spearman correlation coefficient and stepwise regression were used for LUR model development, and 10-fold cross-validation and external data verification were applied to verify the model reliability. The results showed a strongly negative correlation (r: -0.71 to -0.77) between NDVI and PM 2.5 while temples (r: 0.52 to 0.66) and Chinese restaurants (r: 0.31 to 0.44) were positively correlated to PM 2.5 concentrations. With the adjusted model R 2 of 0.89, a cross-validated adj-R 2 of 0.90, and external validated R 2 of 0.83, the high explanatory power of the resultant model was confirmed. Moreover, the averaged NDVI within a 1750 m circular buffer (p < 0.01), the number of Chinese restaurants within a 1750 m buffer (p < 0.01), and the number of temples within a 750 m buffer (p = 0.06) were selected as important predictors during the stepwise selection procedures. According to the partial R 2 , NDVI explained 66% of PM 2.5 variation and was the dominant variable in the developed model. We suggest future studies consider these three factors when establishing LUR models for estimating PM 2.5 in other Asian cities. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

High-order fuzzy time-series based on multi-period adaptation model for forecasting stock markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Tai-Liang; Cheng, Ching-Hsue; Teoh, Hia-Jong

2008-02-01

Stock investors usually make their short-term investment decisions according to recent stock information such as the late market news, technical analysis reports, and price fluctuations. To reflect these short-term factors which impact stock price, this paper proposes a comprehensive fuzzy time-series, which factors linear relationships between recent periods of stock prices and fuzzy logical relationships (nonlinear relationships) mined from time-series into forecasting processes. In empirical analysis, the TAIEX (Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index) and HSI (Heng Seng Index) are employed as experimental datasets, and four recent fuzzy time-series models, Chen’s (1996), Yu’s (2005), Cheng’s (2006) and Chen’s (2007), are used as comparison models. Besides, to compare with conventional statistic method, the method of least squares is utilized to estimate the auto-regressive models of the testing periods within the databases. From analysis results, the performance comparisons indicate that the multi-period adaptation model, proposed in this paper, can effectively improve the forecasting performance of conventional fuzzy time-series models which only factor fuzzy logical relationships in forecasting processes. From the empirical study, the traditional statistic method and the proposed model both reveal that stock price patterns in the Taiwan stock and Hong Kong stock markets are short-term.

Reading Quizzes Improve Exam Scores for Community College Students.

PubMed

Pape-Lindstrom, Pamela; Eddy, Sarah; Freeman, Scott

2018-06-01

To test the hypothesis that adding course structure may encourage self-regulated learning skills resulting in an increase in student exam performance in the community college setting, we added daily preclass online, open-book reading quizzes to an introductory biology course. We compared three control terms without reading quizzes and three experimental terms with online, open-book reading quizzes; the instructor of record, class size, and instructional time did not vary. Analyzing the Bloom's taxonomy level of a random sample of exam questions indicated a similar cognitive level of high-stakes assessments across all six terms in the study. To control for possible changes in student preparation or ability over time, we calculated each student's grade point average in courses other than biology during the term under study and included it as a predictor variable in our regression models. Our final model showed that students in the experimental terms had significantly higher exam scores than students in the control terms. This result shows that online reading quizzes can boost achievement in community college students. We also comment on the importance of discipline-based education research in community college settings and the structure of our community college/4-year institution collaboration.

The Impact of Policy Incentives on Long-Term Care Insurance and Medicaid Costs: Does Underwriting Matter?

PubMed

Cornell, Portia Y; Grabowski, David C

2018-05-16

To test whether underwriting modifies the effect of state-based incentives on individuals' purchase of long-term care insurance. Health and Retirement Study (HRS), 1996-2012. We estimated difference-in-difference regression models with an interaction of state policy indicators with individuals' probabilities of being approved for long-term care insurance. We imputed probabilities of underwriting approval for respondents in the HRS using a model developed with underwriting decisions from two U.S. insurance firms. We measured the elasticity response to long-term care insurance price using changes in simulated after-tax price as an instrumental variable for premium price. Tax incentives and Partnership programs increased insurance purchase by 3.62 percentage points and 1.8 percentage points, respectively, among those with the lowest risk (highest approval probability). Neither had any statistically significant effects among the highest risk individuals. We show that ignoring the effects of underwriting may lead to biased estimates of the potential state budget savings of long-term care insurance tax incentives. If the private market is to play a role in financing long-term care, policies need to address the underlying adverse selection problems. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

Prognostic significance of the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio in patients with stage III and IV colorectal cancer

PubMed Central

Kim, Jae Hyun; Lee, Jun Yeop; Kim, Hae Koo; Lee, Jin Wook; Jung, Sung Gyu; Jung, Kyoungwon; Kim, Sung Eun; Moon, Won; Park, Moo In; Park, Seun Ja

2017-01-01

AIM To evaluate the prognostic value of the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) in patients with colorectal cancer (CRC). METHODS Between April 1996 and December 2010, medical records from a total of 1868 patients with CRC were retrospectively reviewed. The values of simple inflammatory markers including NLR and PLR in predicting the long-term outcomes of these patients were evaluated using Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox regression models. RESULTS The median follow-up duration was 46 mo (interquartile range, 22-73). The estimation of NLR and PLR was based on the time of diagnosis. In multivariate Cox regression analysis, high NLR (≥ 3.0) and high PLR (≥ 160) were independent risk factors predicting poor long-term outcomes in patients with stage III and IV CRC. However, high NLR and high PLR were not prognostic factors in patients with stage I and II CRC. CONCLUSION In this study, we identified that high NLR (≥ 3.0) and high PLR (≥ 160) are useful prognostic factors to predict long-term outcomes in patients with stage III and IV CRC. PMID:28210087

Endoscopic third ventriculostomy in the treatment of childhood hydrocephalus.

PubMed

Kulkarni, Abhaya V; Drake, James M; Mallucci, Conor L; Sgouros, Spyros; Roth, Jonathan; Constantini, Shlomi

2009-08-01

To develop a model to predict the probability of endoscopic third ventriculostomy (ETV) success in the treatment for hydrocephalus on the basis of a child's individual characteristics. We analyzed 618 ETVs performed consecutively on children at 12 international institutions to identify predictors of ETV success at 6 months. A multivariable logistic regression model was developed on 70% of the dataset (training set) and validated on 30% of the dataset (validation set). In the training set, 305/455 ETVs (67.0%) were successful. The regression model (containing patient age, cause of hydrocephalus, and previous cerebrospinal fluid shunt) demonstrated good fit (Hosmer-Lemeshow, P = .78) and discrimination (C statistic = 0.70). In the validation set, 105/163 ETVs (64.4%) were successful and the model maintained good fit (Hosmer-Lemeshow, P = .45), discrimination (C statistic = 0.68), and calibration (calibration slope = 0.88). A simplified ETV Success Score was devised that closely approximates the predicted probability of ETV success. Children most likely to succeed with ETV can now be accurately identified and spared the long-term complications of CSF shunting.

Differential Diagnosis of Erythmato-Squamous Diseases Using Classification and Regression Tree.

PubMed

Maghooli, Keivan; Langarizadeh, Mostafa; Shahmoradi, Leila; Habibi-Koolaee, Mahdi; Jebraeily, Mohamad; Bouraghi, Hamid

2016-10-01

Differential diagnosis of Erythmato-Squamous Diseases (ESD) is a major challenge in the field of dermatology. The ESD diseases are placed into six different classes. Data mining is the process for detection of hidden patterns. In the case of ESD, data mining help us to predict the diseases. Different algorithms were developed for this purpose. we aimed to use the Classification and Regression Tree (CART) to predict differential diagnosis of ESD. we used the Cross Industry Standard Process for Data Mining (CRISP-DM) methodology. For this purpose, the dermatology data set from machine learning repository, UCI was obtained. The Clementine 12.0 software from IBM Company was used for modelling. In order to evaluation of the model we calculate the accuracy, sensitivity and specificity of the model. The proposed model had an accuracy of 94.84% (. 24.42) in order to correct prediction of the ESD disease. Results indicated that using of this classifier could be useful. But, it would be strongly recommended that the combination of machine learning methods could be more useful in terms of prediction of ESD.

Socioeconomic Disparities in Telephone-Based Treatment of Tobacco Dependence

PubMed Central

Varghese, Merilyn; Stitzer, Maxine; Landes, Reid; Brackman, S. Laney; Munn, Tiffany

2014-01-01

Objectives. We examined socioeconomic disparities in tobacco dependence treatment outcomes from a free, proactive telephone counseling quitline. Methods. We delivered cognitive–behavioral treatment and nicotine patches to 6626 smokers and examined socioeconomic differences in demographic, clinical, environmental, and treatment use factors. We used logistic regressions and generalized estimating equations (GEE) to model abstinence and account for socioeconomic differences in the models. Results. The odds of achieving long-term abstinence differed by socioeconomic status (SES). In the GEE model, the odds of abstinence for the highest SES participants were 1.75 times those of the lowest SES participants. Logistic regression models revealed no treatment outcome disparity at the end of treatment, but significant disparities 3 and 6 months after treatment. Conclusions. Although quitlines often increase access to treatment for some lower SES smokers, significant socioeconomic disparities in treatment outcomes raise questions about whether current approaches are contributing to tobacco-related socioeconomic health disparities. Strategies to improve treatment outcomes for lower SES smokers might include novel methods to address multiple factors associated with socioeconomic disparities. PMID:24922165

Eutrophication risk assessment in coastal embayments using simple statistical models.

PubMed

Arhonditsis, G; Eleftheriadou, M; Karydis, M; Tsirtsis, G

2003-09-01

A statistical methodology is proposed for assessing the risk of eutrophication in marine coastal embayments. The procedure followed was the development of regression models relating the levels of chlorophyll a (Chl) with the concentration of the limiting nutrient--usually nitrogen--and the renewal rate of the systems. The method was applied in the Gulf of Gera, Island of Lesvos, Aegean Sea and a surrogate for renewal rate was created using the Canberra metric as a measure of the resemblance between the Gulf and the oligotrophic waters of the open sea in terms of their physical, chemical and biological properties. The Chl-total dissolved nitrogen-renewal rate regression model was the most significant, accounting for 60% of the variation observed in Chl. Predicted distributions of Chl for various combinations of the independent variables, based on Bayesian analysis of the models, enabled comparison of the outcomes of specific scenarios of interest as well as further analysis of the system dynamics. The present statistical approach can be used as a methodological tool for testing the resilience of coastal ecosystems under alternative managerial schemes and levels of exogenous nutrient loading.

Advantages of the net benefit regression framework for economic evaluations of interventions in the workplace: a case study of the cost-effectiveness of a collaborative mental health care program for people receiving short-term disability benefits for psychiatric disorders.

PubMed

Hoch, Jeffrey S; Dewa, Carolyn S

2014-04-01

Economic evaluations commonly accompany trials of new treatments or interventions; however, regression methods and their corresponding advantages for the analysis of cost-effectiveness data are not well known. To illustrate regression-based economic evaluation, we present a case study investigating the cost-effectiveness of a collaborative mental health care program for people receiving short-term disability benefits for psychiatric disorders. We implement net benefit regression to illustrate its strengths and limitations. Net benefit regression offers a simple option for cost-effectiveness analyses of person-level data. By placing economic evaluation in a regression framework, regression-based techniques can facilitate the analysis and provide simple solutions to commonly encountered challenges. Economic evaluations of person-level data (eg, from a clinical trial) should use net benefit regression to facilitate analysis and enhance results.

Poisson Mixture Regression Models for Heart Disease Prediction.

PubMed

Mufudza, Chipo; Erol, Hamza

2016-01-01

Early heart disease control can be achieved by high disease prediction and diagnosis efficiency. This paper focuses on the use of model based clustering techniques to predict and diagnose heart disease via Poisson mixture regression models. Analysis and application of Poisson mixture regression models is here addressed under two different classes: standard and concomitant variable mixture regression models. Results show that a two-component concomitant variable Poisson mixture regression model predicts heart disease better than both the standard Poisson mixture regression model and the ordinary general linear Poisson regression model due to its low Bayesian Information Criteria value. Furthermore, a Zero Inflated Poisson Mixture Regression model turned out to be the best model for heart prediction over all models as it both clusters individuals into high or low risk category and predicts rate to heart disease componentwise given clusters available. It is deduced that heart disease prediction can be effectively done by identifying the major risks componentwise using Poisson mixture regression model.

Poisson Mixture Regression Models for Heart Disease Prediction

PubMed Central

Erol, Hamza

2016-01-01

Early heart disease control can be achieved by high disease prediction and diagnosis efficiency. This paper focuses on the use of model based clustering techniques to predict and diagnose heart disease via Poisson mixture regression models. Analysis and application of Poisson mixture regression models is here addressed under two different classes: standard and concomitant variable mixture regression models. Results show that a two-component concomitant variable Poisson mixture regression model predicts heart disease better than both the standard Poisson mixture regression model and the ordinary general linear Poisson regression model due to its low Bayesian Information Criteria value. Furthermore, a Zero Inflated Poisson Mixture Regression model turned out to be the best model for heart prediction over all models as it both clusters individuals into high or low risk category and predicts rate to heart disease componentwise given clusters available. It is deduced that heart disease prediction can be effectively done by identifying the major risks componentwise using Poisson mixture regression model. PMID:27999611

Comparison of Allogeneic and Syngeneic Rat Glioma Models by Using MRI and Histopathologic Evaluation

PubMed Central

Biasibetti, Elena; Valazza, Alberto; Capucchio, Maria T; Annovazzi, Laura; Battaglia, Luigi; Chirio, Daniela; Gallarate, Marina; Mellai, Marta; Muntoni, Elisabetta; Peira, Elena; Riganti, Chiara; Schiffer, Davide; Panciani, Pierpaolo; Lanotte, Michele

2017-01-01

Research in neurooncology traditionally requires appropriate in vivo animal models, on which therapeutic strategies are tested before human trials are designed and proceed. Several reproducible animal experimental models, in which human physiologic conditions can be mimicked, are available for studying glioblastoma multiforme. In an ideal rat model, the tumor is of glial origin, grows in predictable and reproducible patterns, closely resembles human gliomas histopathologically, and is weakly or nonimmunogenic. In the current study, we used MRI and histopathologic evaluation to compare the most widely used allogeneic rat glioma model, C6-Wistar, with the F98-Fischer syngeneic rat glioma model in terms of percentage tumor growth or regression and growth rate. In vivo MRI demonstrated considerable variation in tumor volume and frequency between the 2 rat models despite the same stereotactic implantation technique. Faster and more reproducible glioma growth occurred in the immunoresponsive environment of the F98-Fischer model, because the immune response is minimized toward syngeneic cells. The marked inability of the C6-Wistar allogeneic system to generate a reproducible model and the episodes of spontaneous tumor regression with this system may have been due to the increased humoral and cellular immune responses after tumor implantation. PMID:28381315

Spatio-temporal modeling of chronic PM 10 exposure for the Nurses' Health Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yanosky, Jeff D.; Paciorek, Christopher J.; Schwartz, Joel; Laden, Francine; Puett, Robin; Suh, Helen H.

2008-06-01

Chronic epidemiological studies of airborne particulate matter (PM) have typically characterized the chronic PM exposures of their study populations using city- or county-wide ambient concentrations, which limit the studies to areas where nearby monitoring data are available and which ignore within-city spatial gradients in ambient PM concentrations. To provide more spatially refined and precise chronic exposure measures, we used a Geographic Information System (GIS)-based spatial smoothing model to predict monthly outdoor PM10 concentrations in the northeastern and midwestern United States. This model included monthly smooth spatial terms and smooth regression terms of GIS-derived and meteorological predictors. Using cross-validation and other pre-specified selection criteria, terms for distance to road by road class, urban land use, block group and county population density, point- and area-source PM10 emissions, elevation, wind speed, and precipitation were found to be important determinants of PM10 concentrations and were included in the final model. Final model performance was strong (cross-validation R2=0.62), with little bias (-0.4 μg m-3) and high precision (6.4 μg m-3). The final model (with monthly spatial terms) performed better than a model with seasonal spatial terms (cross-validation R2=0.54). The addition of GIS-derived and meteorological predictors improved predictive performance over spatial smoothing (cross-validation R2=0.51) or inverse distance weighted interpolation (cross-validation R2=0.29) methods alone and increased the spatial resolution of predictions. The model performed well in both rural and urban areas, across seasons, and across the entire time period. The strong model performance demonstrates its suitability as a means to estimate individual-specific chronic PM10 exposures for large populations.

Multivariate Bias Correction Procedures for Improving Water Quality Predictions from the SWAT Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arumugam, S.; Libera, D.

2017-12-01

Water quality observations are usually not available on a continuous basis for longer than 1-2 years at a time over a decadal period given the labor requirements making calibrating and validating mechanistic models difficult. Further, any physical model predictions inherently have bias (i.e., under/over estimation) and require post-simulation techniques to preserve the long-term mean monthly attributes. This study suggests a multivariate bias-correction technique and compares to a common technique in improving the performance of the SWAT model in predicting daily streamflow and TN loads across the southeast based on split-sample validation. The approach is a dimension reduction technique, canonical correlation analysis (CCA) that regresses the observed multivariate attributes with the SWAT model simulated values. The common approach is a regression based technique that uses an ordinary least squares regression to adjust model values. The observed cross-correlation between loadings and streamflow is better preserved when using canonical correlation while simultaneously reducing individual biases. Additionally, canonical correlation analysis does a better job in preserving the observed joint likelihood of observed streamflow and loadings. These procedures were applied to 3 watersheds chosen from the Water Quality Network in the Southeast Region; specifically, watersheds with sufficiently large drainage areas and number of observed data points. The performance of these two approaches are compared for the observed period and over a multi-decadal period using loading estimates from the USGS LOADEST model. Lastly, the CCA technique is applied in a forecasting sense by using 1-month ahead forecasts of P & T from ECHAM4.5 as forcings in the SWAT model. Skill in using the SWAT model for forecasting loadings and streamflow at the monthly and seasonal timescale is also discussed.

Feature Extraction of Event-Related Potentials Using Wavelets: An Application to Human Performance Monitoring

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Trejo, Leonard J.; Shensa, Mark J.; Remington, Roger W. (Technical Monitor)

1998-01-01

This report describes the development and evaluation of mathematical models for predicting human performance from discrete wavelet transforms (DWT) of event-related potentials (ERP) elicited by task-relevant stimuli. The DWT was compared to principal components analysis (PCA) for representation of ERPs in linear regression and neural network models developed to predict a composite measure of human signal detection performance. Linear regression models based on coefficients of the decimated DWT predicted signal detection performance with half as many f ree parameters as comparable models based on PCA scores. In addition, the DWT-based models were more resistant to model degradation due to over-fitting than PCA-based models. Feed-forward neural networks were trained using the backpropagation,-, algorithm to predict signal detection performance based on raw ERPs, PCA scores, or high-power coefficients of the DWT. Neural networks based on high-power DWT coefficients trained with fewer iterations, generalized to new data better, and were more resistant to overfitting than networks based on raw ERPs. Networks based on PCA scores did not generalize to new data as well as either the DWT network or the raw ERP network. The results show that wavelet expansions represent the ERP efficiently and extract behaviorally important features for use in linear regression or neural network models of human performance. The efficiency of the DWT is discussed in terms of its decorrelation and energy compaction properties. In addition, the DWT models provided evidence that a pattern of low-frequency activity (1 to 3.5 Hz) occurring at specific times and scalp locations is a reliable correlate of human signal detection performance.

Feature extraction of event-related potentials using wavelets: an application to human performance monitoring

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Trejo, L. J.; Shensa, M. J.

1999-01-01

This report describes the development and evaluation of mathematical models for predicting human performance from discrete wavelet transforms (DWT) of event-related potentials (ERP) elicited by task-relevant stimuli. The DWT was compared to principal components analysis (PCA) for representation of ERPs in linear regression and neural network models developed to predict a composite measure of human signal detection performance. Linear regression models based on coefficients of the decimated DWT predicted signal detection performance with half as many free parameters as comparable models based on PCA scores. In addition, the DWT-based models were more resistant to model degradation due to over-fitting than PCA-based models. Feed-forward neural networks were trained using the backpropagation algorithm to predict signal detection performance based on raw ERPs, PCA scores, or high-power coefficients of the DWT. Neural networks based on high-power DWT coefficients trained with fewer iterations, generalized to new data better, and were more resistant to overfitting than networks based on raw ERPs. Networks based on PCA scores did not generalize to new data as well as either the DWT network or the raw ERP network. The results show that wavelet expansions represent the ERP efficiently and extract behaviorally important features for use in linear regression or neural network models of human performance. The efficiency of the DWT is discussed in terms of its decorrelation and energy compaction properties. In addition, the DWT models provided evidence that a pattern of low-frequency activity (1 to 3.5 Hz) occurring at specific times and scalp locations is a reliable correlate of human signal detection performance. Copyright 1999 Academic Press.

Estimating riparian understory vegetation cover with beta regression and copula models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Eskelson, Bianca N.I.; Madsen, Lisa; Hagar, Joan C.; Temesgen, Hailemariam

2011-01-01

Understory vegetation communities are critical components of forest ecosystems. As a result, the importance of modeling understory vegetation characteristics in forested landscapes has become more apparent. Abundance measures such as shrub cover are bounded between 0 and 1, exhibit heteroscedastic error variance, and are often subject to spatial dependence. These distributional features tend to be ignored when shrub cover data are analyzed. The beta distribution has been used successfully to describe the frequency distribution of vegetation cover. Beta regression models ignoring spatial dependence (BR) and accounting for spatial dependence (BRdep) were used to estimate percent shrub cover as a function of topographic conditions and overstory vegetation structure in riparian zones in western Oregon. The BR models showed poor explanatory power (pseudo-R2 ≤ 0.34) but outperformed ordinary least-squares (OLS) and generalized least-squares (GLS) regression models with logit-transformed response in terms of mean square prediction error and absolute bias. We introduce a copula (COP) model that is based on the beta distribution and accounts for spatial dependence. A simulation study was designed to illustrate the effects of incorrectly assuming normality, equal variance, and spatial independence. It showed that BR, BRdep, and COP models provide unbiased parameter estimates, whereas OLS and GLS models result in slightly biased estimates for two of the three parameters. On the basis of the simulation study, 93–97% of the GLS, BRdep, and COP confidence intervals covered the true parameters, whereas OLS and BR only resulted in 84–88% coverage, which demonstrated the superiority of GLS, BRdep, and COP over OLS and BR models in providing standard errors for the parameter estimates in the presence of spatial dependence.

Doubly Robust Additive Hazards Models to Estimate Effects of a Continuous Exposure on Survival.

PubMed

Wang, Yan; Lee, Mihye; Liu, Pengfei; Shi, Liuhua; Yu, Zhi; Abu Awad, Yara; Zanobetti, Antonella; Schwartz, Joel D

2017-11-01

The effect of an exposure on survival can be biased when the regression model is misspecified. Hazard difference is easier to use in risk assessment than hazard ratio and has a clearer interpretation in the assessment of effect modifications. We proposed two doubly robust additive hazards models to estimate the causal hazard difference of a continuous exposure on survival. The first model is an inverse probability-weighted additive hazards regression. The second model is an extension of the doubly robust estimator for binary exposures by categorizing the continuous exposure. We compared these with the marginal structural model and outcome regression with correct and incorrect model specifications using simulations. We applied doubly robust additive hazard models to the estimation of hazard difference of long-term exposure to PM2.5 (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter less than or equal to 2.5 microns) on survival using a large cohort of 13 million older adults residing in seven states of the Southeastern United States. We showed that the proposed approaches are doubly robust. We found that each 1 μg m increase in annual PM2.5 exposure was associated with a causal hazard difference in mortality of 8.0 × 10 (95% confidence interval 7.4 × 10, 8.7 × 10), which was modified by age, medical history, socioeconomic status, and urbanicity. The overall hazard difference translates to approximately 5.5 (5.1, 6.0) thousand deaths per year in the study population. The proposed approaches improve the robustness of the additive hazards model and produce a novel additive causal estimate of PM2.5 on survival and several additive effect modifications, including social inequality.

Physiologic noise regression, motion regression, and TOAST dynamic field correction in complex-valued fMRI time series.

PubMed

Hahn, Andrew D; Rowe, Daniel B

2012-02-01

As more evidence is presented suggesting that the phase, as well as the magnitude, of functional MRI (fMRI) time series may contain important information and that there are theoretical drawbacks to modeling functional response in the magnitude alone, removing noise in the phase is becoming more important. Previous studies have shown that retrospective correction of noise from physiologic sources can remove significant phase variance and that dynamic main magnetic field correction and regression of estimated motion parameters also remove significant phase fluctuations. In this work, we investigate the performance of physiologic noise regression in a framework along with correction for dynamic main field fluctuations and motion regression. Our findings suggest that including physiologic regressors provides some benefit in terms of reduction in phase noise power, but it is small compared to the benefit of dynamic field corrections and use of estimated motion parameters as nuisance regressors. Additionally, we show that the use of all three techniques reduces phase variance substantially, removes undesirable spatial phase correlations and improves detection of the functional response in magnitude and phase. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Tree-ring-based estimates of long-term seasonal precipitation in the Souris River Region of Saskatchewan, North Dakota and Manitoba

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ryberg, Karen R.; Vecchia, Aldo V.; Akyüz, F. Adnan; Lin, Wei

2016-01-01

Historically unprecedented flooding occurred in the Souris River Basin of Saskatchewan, North Dakota and Manitoba in 2011, during a longer term period of wet conditions in the basin. In order to develop a model of future flows, there is a need to evaluate effects of past multidecadal climate variability and/or possible climate change on precipitation. In this study, tree-ring chronologies and historical precipitation data in a four-degree buffer around the Souris River Basin were analyzed to develop regression models that can be used for predicting long-term variations of precipitation. To focus on longer term variability, 12-year moving average precipitation was modeled in five subregions (determined through cluster analysis of measures of precipitation) of the study area over three seasons (November–February, March–June and July–October). The models used multiresolution decomposition (an additive decomposition based on powers of two using a discrete wavelet transform) of tree-ring chronologies from Canada and the US and seasonal 12-year moving average precipitation based on Adjusted and Homogenized Canadian Climate Data and US Historical Climatology Network data. Results show that precipitation varies on long-term (multidecadal) time scales of 16, 32 and 64 years. Past extended pluvial and drought events, which can vary greatly with season and subregion, were highlighted by the models. Results suggest that the recent wet period may be a part of natural variability on a very long time scale.

Short-term Power Load Forecasting Based on Balanced KNN

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lv, Xianlong; Cheng, Xingong; YanShuang; Tang, Yan-mei

2018-03-01

To improve the accuracy of load forecasting, a short-term load forecasting model based on balanced KNN algorithm is proposed; According to the load characteristics, the historical data of massive power load are divided into scenes by the K-means algorithm; In view of unbalanced load scenes, the balanced KNN algorithm is proposed to classify the scene accurately; The local weighted linear regression algorithm is used to fitting and predict the load; Adopting the Apache Hadoop programming framework of cloud computing, the proposed algorithm model is parallelized and improved to enhance its ability of dealing with massive and high-dimension data. The analysis of the household electricity consumption data for a residential district is done by 23-nodes cloud computing cluster, and experimental results show that the load forecasting accuracy and execution time by the proposed model are the better than those of traditional forecasting algorithm.

Spatio-temporal variations of nitric acid total columns from 9 years of IASI measurements - a driver study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ronsmans, Gaétane; Wespes, Catherine; Hurtmans, Daniel; Clerbaux, Cathy; Coheur, Pierre-François

2018-04-01

This study aims to understand the spatial and temporal variability of HNO3 total columns in terms of explanatory variables. To achieve this, multiple linear regressions are used to fit satellite-derived time series of HNO3 daily averaged total columns. First, an analysis of the IASI 9-year time series (2008-2016) is conducted based on various equivalent latitude bands. The strong and systematic denitrification of the southern polar stratosphere is observed very clearly. It is also possible to distinguish, within the polar vortex, three regions which are differently affected by the denitrification. Three exceptional denitrification episodes in 2011, 2014 and 2016 are also observed in the Northern Hemisphere, due to unusually low arctic temperatures. The time series are then fitted by multivariate regressions to identify what variables are responsible for HNO3 variability in global distributions and time series, and to quantify their respective influence. Out of an ensemble of proxies (annual cycle, solar flux, quasi-biennial oscillation, multivariate ENSO index, Arctic and Antarctic oscillations and volume of polar stratospheric clouds), only the those defined as significant (p value < 0.05) by a selection algorithm are retained for each equivalent latitude band. Overall, the regression gives a good representation of HNO3 variability, with especially good results at high latitudes (60-80 % of the observed variability explained by the model). The regressions show the dominance of annual variability in all latitudinal bands, which is related to specific chemistry and dynamics depending on the latitudes. We find that the polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) also have a major influence in the polar regions, and that their inclusion in the model improves the correlation coefficients and the residuals. However, there is still a relatively large portion of HNO3 variability that remains unexplained by the model, especially in the intertropical regions, where factors not included in the regression model (such as vegetation fires or lightning) may be at play.

A reference set of health utilities for long-term survivors of prostate cancer: population-based data from Ontario, Canada.

PubMed

Krahn, Murray D; Bremner, Karen E; Alibhai, Shabbir M H; Ni, Andy; Tomlinson, George; Laporte, Audrey; Naglie, Gary

2013-12-01

To measure quality of life (QOL) and utilities for prostate cancer (PC) patients and determine their predictors. A population-based, community-dwelling, geographically diverse sample of long-term PC survivors in Ontario, Canada, was identified from the Ontario Cancer Registry and contacted through their referring physician. Consenting patients completed questionnaires by mail: Health Utilities Index (HUI 2/3), Patient Oriented Prostate Utility Scale PORPUS-U (utility), PORPUS-P (health profile), Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy-Prostate (FACT-P), and Prostate Cancer Index (PCI). Clinical data were obtained from chart reviews. Regression models determined the effects of a series of variables on QOL and utility. We received questionnaires and reviewed charts for 585 patients (mean age 72.6, 2-13 years postdiagnosis). Mean utility scores were as follows: PORPUS-U = 0.92, HUI2 = 0.85, and HUI3 = 0.78. Mean health profile scores were as follows: PORPUS-P = 71.7, PCI sexual, urinary, and bowel function = 23.7, 79.1, and 84.6, respectively (0 = worst, 100 = best), and FACT-P = 125.1 (0 = worst, 156 = best). In multiple regression analyses, comorbidity and PCI urinary, sexual, and bowel function were significant predictors of other QOL measures. With all variables, 32-50 % of the variance in utilities was explained. Many variables affect global QOL of PC survivors; only prostate symptoms and comorbidity have independent effects. Our model allows estimation of the effects of multiple factors on utilities. These utilities for long-term outcomes of PC and its treatment are valuable for decision/cost-effectiveness models of PC treatment.

Application of Support Vector Machine to Forex Monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kamruzzaman, Joarder; Sarker, Ruhul A.

Previous studies have demonstrated superior performance of artificial neural network (ANN) based forex forecasting models over traditional regression models. This paper applies support vector machines to build a forecasting model from the historical data using six simple technical indicators and presents a comparison with an ANN based model trained by scaled conjugate gradient (SCG) learning algorithm. The models are evaluated and compared on the basis of five commonly used performance metrics that measure closeness of prediction as well as correctness in directional change. Forecasting results of six different currencies against Australian dollar reveal superior performance of SVM model using simple linear kernel over ANN-SCG model in terms of all the evaluation metrics. The effect of SVM parameter selection on prediction performance is also investigated and analyzed.

Learning an Eddy Viscosity Model Using Shrinkage and Bayesian Calibration: A Jet-in-Crossflow Case Study

DOE PAGES

Ray, Jaideep; Lefantzi, Sophia; Arunajatesan, Srinivasan; ...

2017-09-07

In this paper, we demonstrate a statistical procedure for learning a high-order eddy viscosity model (EVM) from experimental data and using it to improve the predictive skill of a Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) simulator. The method is tested in a three-dimensional (3D), transonic jet-in-crossflow (JIC) configuration. The process starts with a cubic eddy viscosity model (CEVM) developed for incompressible flows. It is fitted to limited experimental JIC data using shrinkage regression. The shrinkage process removes all the terms from the model, except an intercept, a linear term, and a quadratic one involving the square of the vorticity. The shrunk eddy viscositymore » model is implemented in an RANS simulator and calibrated, using vorticity measurements, to infer three parameters. The calibration is Bayesian and is solved using a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. A 3D probability density distribution for the inferred parameters is constructed, thus quantifying the uncertainty in the estimate. The phenomenal cost of using a 3D flow simulator inside an MCMC loop is mitigated by using surrogate models (“curve-fits”). A support vector machine classifier (SVMC) is used to impose our prior belief regarding parameter values, specifically to exclude nonphysical parameter combinations. The calibrated model is compared, in terms of its predictive skill, to simulations using uncalibrated linear and CEVMs. Finally, we find that the calibrated model, with one quadratic term, is more accurate than the uncalibrated simulator. The model is also checked at a flow condition at which the model was not calibrated.« less

Learning an Eddy Viscosity Model Using Shrinkage and Bayesian Calibration: A Jet-in-Crossflow Case Study

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ray, Jaideep; Lefantzi, Sophia; Arunajatesan, Srinivasan

In this paper, we demonstrate a statistical procedure for learning a high-order eddy viscosity model (EVM) from experimental data and using it to improve the predictive skill of a Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) simulator. The method is tested in a three-dimensional (3D), transonic jet-in-crossflow (JIC) configuration. The process starts with a cubic eddy viscosity model (CEVM) developed for incompressible flows. It is fitted to limited experimental JIC data using shrinkage regression. The shrinkage process removes all the terms from the model, except an intercept, a linear term, and a quadratic one involving the square of the vorticity. The shrunk eddy viscositymore » model is implemented in an RANS simulator and calibrated, using vorticity measurements, to infer three parameters. The calibration is Bayesian and is solved using a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. A 3D probability density distribution for the inferred parameters is constructed, thus quantifying the uncertainty in the estimate. The phenomenal cost of using a 3D flow simulator inside an MCMC loop is mitigated by using surrogate models (“curve-fits”). A support vector machine classifier (SVMC) is used to impose our prior belief regarding parameter values, specifically to exclude nonphysical parameter combinations. The calibrated model is compared, in terms of its predictive skill, to simulations using uncalibrated linear and CEVMs. Finally, we find that the calibrated model, with one quadratic term, is more accurate than the uncalibrated simulator. The model is also checked at a flow condition at which the model was not calibrated.« less

Precipitation Nowcast using Deep Recurrent Neural Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akbari Asanjan, A.; Yang, T.; Gao, X.; Hsu, K. L.; Sorooshian, S.

2016-12-01

An accurate precipitation nowcast (0-6 hours) with a fine temporal and spatial resolution has always been an important prerequisite for flood warning, streamflow prediction and risk management. Most of the popular approaches used for forecasting precipitation can be categorized into two groups. One type of precipitation forecast relies on numerical modeling of the physical dynamics of atmosphere and another is based on empirical and statistical regression models derived by local hydrologists or meteorologists. Given the recent advances in artificial intelligence, in this study a powerful Deep Recurrent Neural Network, termed as Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model, is creatively used to extract the patterns and forecast the spatial and temporal variability of Cloud Top Brightness Temperature (CTBT) observed from GOES satellite. Then, a 0-6 hours precipitation nowcast is produced using a Precipitation Estimation from Remote Sensing Information using Artificial Neural Network (PERSIANN) algorithm, in which the CTBT nowcast is used as the PERSIANN algorithm's raw inputs. Two case studies over the continental U.S. have been conducted that demonstrate the improvement of proposed approach as compared to a classical Feed Forward Neural Network and a couple simple regression models. The advantages and disadvantages of the proposed method are summarized with regard to its capability of pattern recognition through time, handling of vanishing gradient during model learning, and working with sparse data. The studies show that the LSTM model performs better than other methods, and it is able to learn the temporal evolution of the precipitation events through over 1000 time lags. The uniqueness of PERSIANN's algorithm enables an alternative precipitation nowcast approach as demonstrated in this study, in which the CTBT prediction is produced and used as the inputs for generating precipitation nowcast.

Use of a Machine-learning Method for Predicting Highly Cited Articles Within General Radiology Journals.

PubMed

Rosenkrantz, Andrew B; Doshi, Ankur M; Ginocchio, Luke A; Aphinyanaphongs, Yindalon

2016-12-01

This study aimed to assess the performance of a text classification machine-learning model in predicting highly cited articles within the recent radiological literature and to identify the model's most influential article features. We downloaded from PubMed the title, abstract, and medical subject heading terms for 10,065 articles published in 25 general radiology journals in 2012 and 2013. Three machine-learning models were applied to predict the top 10% of included articles in terms of the number of citations to the article in 2014 (reflecting the 2-year time window in conventional impact factor calculations). The model having the highest area under the curve was selected to derive a list of article features (words) predicting high citation volume, which was iteratively reduced to identify the smallest possible core feature list maintaining predictive power. Overall themes were qualitatively assigned to the core features. The regularized logistic regression (Bayesian binary regression) model had highest performance, achieving an area under the curve of 0.814 in predicting articles in the top 10% of citation volume. We reduced the initial 14,083 features to 210 features that maintain predictivity. These features corresponded with topics relating to various imaging techniques (eg, diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging, hyperpolarized magnetic resonance imaging, dual-energy computed tomography, computed tomography reconstruction algorithms, tomosynthesis, elastography, and computer-aided diagnosis), particular pathologies (prostate cancer; thyroid nodules; hepatic adenoma, hepatocellular carcinoma, non-alcoholic fatty liver disease), and other topics (radiation dose, electroporation, education, general oncology, gadolinium, statistics). Machine learning can be successfully applied to create specific feature-based models for predicting articles likely to achieve high influence within the radiological literature. Copyright © 2016 The Association of University Radiologists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Parametric regression model for survival data: Weibull regression model as an example

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Weibull regression model is one of the most popular forms of parametric regression model that it provides estimate of baseline hazard function, as well as coefficients for covariates. Because of technical difficulties, Weibull regression model is seldom used in medical literature as compared to the semi-parametric proportional hazard model. To make clinical investigators familiar with Weibull regression model, this article introduces some basic knowledge on Weibull regression model and then illustrates how to fit the model with R software. The SurvRegCensCov package is useful in converting estimated coefficients to clinical relevant statistics such as hazard ratio (HR) and event time ratio (ETR). Model adequacy can be assessed by inspecting Kaplan-Meier curves stratified by categorical variable. The eha package provides an alternative method to model Weibull regression model. The check.dist() function helps to assess goodness-of-fit of the model. Variable selection is based on the importance of a covariate, which can be tested using anova() function. Alternatively, backward elimination starting from a full model is an efficient way for model development. Visualization of Weibull regression model after model development is interesting that it provides another way to report your findings. PMID:28149846

The cost of absenteeism and short-term disability associated with colorectal cancer: a case-control study.

PubMed

Yaldo, Avin; Seal, Brian S; Lage, Maureen J

2014-08-01

Examine the incremental impact of absenteeism and short-term disability associated with colorectal cancer (CRC). Absenteeism and short-term disability data were used for a case-control analysis of a healthy cohort (controls) compared with CRC patients (cases). Cases were matched to controls on the basis of age, sex, and region of residence. Multivariate regression models examined the costs of absenteeism and short-term disability, controlling for patient characteristics, prior medical costs, and patient general health. Compared with controls, CRC patients experience significantly higher short-term disability costs (mean, $45,716 vs $7367 [P < 0.0001]; median, $35,827 vs $7365 [P < 0.0001]), as well as significantly higher absenteeism costs (mean, $8841 vs $4596 [P < 0.0001]; median, $9971 vs $4795 [P < 0.0001]) in the 1 year after diagnosis of CRC. Colorectal cancer is associated with significant work-related productivity loss costs in the first year after diagnosis.

A general procedure to generate models for urban environmental-noise pollution using feature selection and machine learning methods.

PubMed

Torija, Antonio J; Ruiz, Diego P

2015-02-01

The prediction of environmental noise in urban environments requires the solution of a complex and non-linear problem, since there are complex relationships among the multitude of variables involved in the characterization and modelling of environmental noise and environmental-noise magnitudes. Moreover, the inclusion of the great spatial heterogeneity characteristic of urban environments seems to be essential in order to achieve an accurate environmental-noise prediction in cities. This problem is addressed in this paper, where a procedure based on feature-selection techniques and machine-learning regression methods is proposed and applied to this environmental problem. Three machine-learning regression methods, which are considered very robust in solving non-linear problems, are used to estimate the energy-equivalent sound-pressure level descriptor (LAeq). These three methods are: (i) multilayer perceptron (MLP), (ii) sequential minimal optimisation (SMO), and (iii) Gaussian processes for regression (GPR). In addition, because of the high number of input variables involved in environmental-noise modelling and estimation in urban environments, which make LAeq prediction models quite complex and costly in terms of time and resources for application to real situations, three different techniques are used to approach feature selection or data reduction. The feature-selection techniques used are: (i) correlation-based feature-subset selection (CFS), (ii) wrapper for feature-subset selection (WFS), and the data reduction technique is principal-component analysis (PCA). The subsequent analysis leads to a proposal of different schemes, depending on the needs regarding data collection and accuracy. The use of WFS as the feature-selection technique with the implementation of SMO or GPR as regression algorithm provides the best LAeq estimation (R(2)=0.94 and mean absolute error (MAE)=1.14-1.16 dB(A)). Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Introduction to the use of regression models in epidemiology.

PubMed

Bender, Ralf

2009-01-01

Regression modeling is one of the most important statistical techniques used in analytical epidemiology. By means of regression models the effect of one or several explanatory variables (e.g., exposures, subject characteristics, risk factors) on a response variable such as mortality or cancer can be investigated. From multiple regression models, adjusted effect estimates can be obtained that take the effect of potential confounders into account. Regression methods can be applied in all epidemiologic study designs so that they represent a universal tool for data analysis in epidemiology. Different kinds of regression models have been developed in dependence on the measurement scale of the response variable and the study design. The most important methods are linear regression for continuous outcomes, logistic regression for binary outcomes, Cox regression for time-to-event data, and Poisson regression for frequencies and rates. This chapter provides a nontechnical introduction to these regression models with illustrating examples from cancer research.

Trajectories of postsurgical pain in children: risk factors and impact of late pain recovery on long-term health outcomes after major surgery.

PubMed

Rabbitts, Jennifer A; Zhou, Chuan; Groenewald, Cornelius B; Durkin, Lindsay; Palermo, Tonya M

2015-11-01

Over 1 million children undergo inpatient surgery annually in the United States. Emerging research indicates that many children have longer-term problems with pain. However, limited data exist on the course of pain over time and the impact of pain recovery on long-term health outcomes. We sought to prospectively characterize children's postsurgical pain trajectories using repeated assessments over 12 months. In addition, we identified presurgical child and parent psychological risk factors associated with persistent pain and examined relationships between pain trajectories and long-term health outcomes. Sixty children aged 10 to 18 years undergoing major surgery and their parent/guardian were enrolled. Participants completed assessments at 5 time points: presurgery, inhospital, 2 weeks, 4 months, and 1 year postsurgery. Child and parent pain catastrophizing was assessed during the week before surgery. Children completed daily monitoring with an electronic pain diary and reported on pain characteristics, health-related quality of life, and activity limitations. Group-based longitudinal modeling revealed 2 distinct trajectories of postsurgical pain: early recovery (n = 49, 82%) and late recovery (n = 11, 18%). In a logistic regression model controlling for age and sex, parental pain catastrophizing before surgery significantly predicted membership in the late recovery group (odds ratio = 1.11, P = 0.03), whereas child catastrophizing and baseline pain did not (Ps < 0.05). In a multivariate regression controlling for age and sex, late pain recovery was significantly associated with poorer health-related quality of life (β = -10.7, P = 0.02) and greater activity limitations (β = 3.6, P = 0.04) at 1 year. Our findings suggest that preoperative interventions that modify parent behaviors and cognitions might be beneficial in this population.

Traffic-related air pollution and noise and children's blood pressure: results from the PIAMA birth cohort study.

PubMed

Bilenko, Natalya; van Rossem, Lenie; Brunekreef, Bert; Beelen, Rob; Eeftens, Marloes; Hoek, Gerard; Houthuijs, Danny; de Jongste, Johan C; van Kempen, Elise; Koppelman, Gerard H; Meliefste, Kees; Oldenwening, Marieke; Smit, Henriette A; Wijga, Alet H; Gehring, Ulrike

2015-01-01

Elevation of a child's blood pressure may cause possible health risks in later life. There is evidence for adverse effects of exposure to air pollution and noise on blood pressure in adults. Little is known about these associations in children. We investigated the associations of air pollution and noise exposure with blood pressure in 12-year-olds. Blood pressure was measured at age 12 years in 1432 participants of the PIAMA birth cohort study. Annual average exposure to traffic-related air pollution [NO2, mass concentrations of particulate matter with diameters of less than 2.5 µm (PM2.5) and less than 10 µm (PM10), and PM2.5 absorbance] at the participants' home and school addresses at the time of blood pressure measurements was estimated by land-use regression models. Air pollution exposure on the days preceding blood pressure measurements was estimated from routine air monitoring data. Long-term noise exposure was assessed by linking addresses to modelled equivalent road traffic noise levels. Associations of exposures with blood pressure were analysed by linear regression. Effects are presented for an interquartile range increase in exposure. Long-term exposure to NO2 and PM2.5 absorbance were associated with increased diastolic blood pressure, in children who lived at the same address since birth [adjusted mean difference (95% confidence interval) [mmHg] 0.83 (0.06 to 1.61) and 0.75 (-0.08 to 1.58), respectively], but not with systolic blood pressure. We found no association of blood pressure with short-term air pollution or noise exposure. Long-term exposure to traffic-related air pollution may increase diastolic blood pressure in children. © The European Society of Cardiology 2013 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav.

A comparison between Poisson and zero-inflated Poisson regression models with an application to number of black spots in Corriedale sheep

PubMed Central

Naya, Hugo; Urioste, Jorge I; Chang, Yu-Mei; Rodrigues-Motta, Mariana; Kremer, Roberto; Gianola, Daniel

2008-01-01

Dark spots in the fleece area are often associated with dark fibres in wool, which limits its competitiveness with other textile fibres. Field data from a sheep experiment in Uruguay revealed an excess number of zeros for dark spots. We compared the performance of four Poisson and zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) models under four simulation scenarios. All models performed reasonably well under the same scenario for which the data were simulated. The deviance information criterion favoured a Poisson model with residual, while the ZIP model with a residual gave estimates closer to their true values under all simulation scenarios. Both Poisson and ZIP models with an error term at the regression level performed better than their counterparts without such an error. Field data from Corriedale sheep were analysed with Poisson and ZIP models with residuals. Parameter estimates were similar for both models. Although the posterior distribution of the sire variance was skewed due to a small number of rams in the dataset, the median of this variance suggested a scope for genetic selection. The main environmental factor was the age of the sheep at shearing. In summary, age related processes seem to drive the number of dark spots in this breed of sheep. PMID:18558072

Linking in situ LAI and fine resolution remote sensing data to map reference LAI over cropland and grassland using geostatistical regression method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Yaqian; Bo, Yanchen; Chai, Leilei; Liu, Xiaolong; Li, Aihua

2016-08-01

Leaf Area Index (LAI) is an important parameter of vegetation structure. A number of moderate resolution LAI products have been produced in urgent need of large scale vegetation monitoring. High resolution LAI reference maps are necessary to validate these LAI products. This study used a geostatistical regression (GR) method to estimate LAI reference maps by linking in situ LAI and Landsat TM/ETM+ and SPOT-HRV data over two cropland and two grassland sites. To explore the discrepancies of employing different vegetation indices (VIs) on estimating LAI reference maps, this study established the GR models for different VIs, including difference vegetation index (DVI), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and ratio vegetation index (RVI). To further assess the performance of the GR model, the results from the GR and Reduced Major Axis (RMA) models were compared. The results show that the performance of the GR model varies between the cropland and grassland sites. At the cropland sites, the GR model based on DVI provides the best estimation, while at the grassland sites, the GR model based on DVI performs poorly. Compared to the RMA model, the GR model improves the accuracy of reference LAI maps in terms of root mean square errors (RMSE) and bias.

The process and utility of classification and regression tree methodology in nursing research

PubMed Central

Kuhn, Lisa; Page, Karen; Ward, John; Worrall-Carter, Linda

2014-01-01

Aim This paper presents a discussion of classification and regression tree analysis and its utility in nursing research. Background Classification and regression tree analysis is an exploratory research method used to illustrate associations between variables not suited to traditional regression analysis. Complex interactions are demonstrated between covariates and variables of interest in inverted tree diagrams. Design Discussion paper. Data sources English language literature was sourced from eBooks, Medline Complete and CINAHL Plus databases, Google and Google Scholar, hard copy research texts and retrieved reference lists for terms including classification and regression tree* and derivatives and recursive partitioning from 1984–2013. Discussion Classification and regression tree analysis is an important method used to identify previously unknown patterns amongst data. Whilst there are several reasons to embrace this method as a means of exploratory quantitative research, issues regarding quality of data as well as the usefulness and validity of the findings should be considered. Implications for Nursing Research Classification and regression tree analysis is a valuable tool to guide nurses to reduce gaps in the application of evidence to practice. With the ever-expanding availability of data, it is important that nurses understand the utility and limitations of the research method. Conclusion Classification and regression tree analysis is an easily interpreted method for modelling interactions between health-related variables that would otherwise remain obscured. Knowledge is presented graphically, providing insightful understanding of complex and hierarchical relationships in an accessible and useful way to nursing and other health professions. PMID:24237048

The process and utility of classification and regression tree methodology in nursing research.

PubMed

Kuhn, Lisa; Page, Karen; Ward, John; Worrall-Carter, Linda

2014-06-01

This paper presents a discussion of classification and regression tree analysis and its utility in nursing research. Classification and regression tree analysis is an exploratory research method used to illustrate associations between variables not suited to traditional regression analysis. Complex interactions are demonstrated between covariates and variables of interest in inverted tree diagrams. Discussion paper. English language literature was sourced from eBooks, Medline Complete and CINAHL Plus databases, Google and Google Scholar, hard copy research texts and retrieved reference lists for terms including classification and regression tree* and derivatives and recursive partitioning from 1984-2013. Classification and regression tree analysis is an important method used to identify previously unknown patterns amongst data. Whilst there are several reasons to embrace this method as a means of exploratory quantitative research, issues regarding quality of data as well as the usefulness and validity of the findings should be considered. Classification and regression tree analysis is a valuable tool to guide nurses to reduce gaps in the application of evidence to practice. With the ever-expanding availability of data, it is important that nurses understand the utility and limitations of the research method. Classification and regression tree analysis is an easily interpreted method for modelling interactions between health-related variables that would otherwise remain obscured. Knowledge is presented graphically, providing insightful understanding of complex and hierarchical relationships in an accessible and useful way to nursing and other health professions. © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Advanced Nursing Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Subgroup identification of early preterm birth (ePTB): informing a future prospective enrichment clinical trial design.

PubMed

Zhang, Chuanwu; Garrard, Lili; Keighley, John; Carlson, Susan; Gajewski, Byron

2017-01-10

Despite the widely recognized association between the severity of early preterm birth (ePTB) and its related severe diseases, little is known about the potential risk factors of ePTB and the sub-population with high risk of ePTB. Moreover, motivated by a future confirmatory clinical trial to identify whether supplementing pregnant women with docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) has a different effect on the risk subgroup population or not in terms of ePTB prevalence, this study aims to identify potential risk subgroups and risk factors for ePTB, defined as babies born less than 34 weeks of gestation. The analysis data (N = 3,994,872) were obtained from CDC and NCHS' 2014 Natality public data file. The sample was split into independent training and validation cohorts for model generation and model assessment, respectively. Logistic regression and CART models were used to examine potential ePTB risk predictors and their interactions, including mothers' age, nativity, race, Hispanic origin, marital status, education, pre-pregnancy smoking status, pre-pregnancy BMI, pre-pregnancy diabetes status, pre-pregnancy hypertension status, previous preterm birth status, infertility treatment usage status, fertility enhancing drug usage status, and delivery payment source. Both logistic regression models with either 14 or 10 ePTB risk factors produced the same C-index (0.646) based on the training cohort. The C-index of the logistic regression model based on 10 predictors was 0.645 for the validation cohort. Both C-indexes indicated a good discrimination and acceptable model fit. The CART model identified preterm birth history and race as the most important risk factors, and revealed that the subgroup with a preterm birth history and a race designation as Black had the highest risk for ePTB. The c-index and misclassification rate were 0.579 and 0.034 for the training cohort, and 0.578 and 0.034 for the validation cohort, respectively. This study revealed 14 maternal characteristic variables that reliably identified risk for ePTB through either logistic regression model and/or a CART model. Moreover, both models efficiently identify risk subgroups for further enrichment clinical trial design.

Tree allometry and improved estimation of carbon stocks and balance in tropical forests.

PubMed

Chave, J; Andalo, C; Brown, S; Cairns, M A; Chambers, J Q; Eamus, D; Fölster, H; Fromard, F; Higuchi, N; Kira, T; Lescure, J-P; Nelson, B W; Ogawa, H; Puig, H; Riéra, B; Yamakura, T

2005-08-01

Tropical forests hold large stores of carbon, yet uncertainty remains regarding their quantitative contribution to the global carbon cycle. One approach to quantifying carbon biomass stores consists in inferring changes from long-term forest inventory plots. Regression models are used to convert inventory data into an estimate of aboveground biomass (AGB). We provide a critical reassessment of the quality and the robustness of these models across tropical forest types, using a large dataset of 2,410 trees >or= 5 cm diameter, directly harvested in 27 study sites across the tropics. Proportional relationships between aboveground biomass and the product of wood density, trunk cross-sectional area, and total height are constructed. We also develop a regression model involving wood density and stem diameter only. Our models were tested for secondary and old-growth forests, for dry, moist and wet forests, for lowland and montane forests, and for mangrove forests. The most important predictors of AGB of a tree were, in decreasing order of importance, its trunk diameter, wood specific gravity, total height, and forest type (dry, moist, or wet). Overestimates prevailed, giving a bias of 0.5-6.5% when errors were averaged across all stands. Our regression models can be used reliably to predict aboveground tree biomass across a broad range of tropical forests. Because they are based on an unprecedented dataset, these models should improve the quality of tropical biomass estimates, and bring consensus about the contribution of the tropical forest biome and tropical deforestation to the global carbon cycle.

Model for equitable care and outcomes for remote full care hemodialysis units.

PubMed

Bernstein, Keevin; Zacharias, James; Blanchard, James F; Yu, B Nancy; Shaw, Souradet Y

2010-04-01

Remotely located patients not living close to a nephrologist present major challenges for providing care. Various models of remotely delivered care have been developed, with a gap in knowledge regarding the outcomes of these heterogeneous models. This report describes a satellite care model for remote full-care hemodialysis units managed homogenously in the province of Manitoba, Canada, without onsite nephrologists. Survival in remotely located full-care units is compared with a large, urban full-care center with onsite nephrologists. Data from a Canadian provincial dialysis registry were extracted on 2663 patients between 1990 and 2005. All-cause mortality after initiation of chronic hemodialysis was assessed with Cox proportional hazards regression. Both short-term (1 year) and long-term (2 to 5 years) survival were analyzed. Survival for patients receiving remotely delivered care was shown to be better than for those receiving care in the urban care center with this particular Canadian model of care. Furthermore, there was no difference when assessing short- and long-term survival. This was independent of distance from the urban center. Chronic hemodialysis patients receiving remotely delivered care in a specialized facility attain comparable, if not better survival outcomes than their urban counterparts with direct onsite nephrology care. This model can potentially be adapted to other underserviced areas, including increasingly larger urban centers.

Ultra-Short-Term Wind Power Prediction Using a Hybrid Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohammed, E.; Wang, S.; Yu, J.

2017-05-01

This paper aims to develop and apply a hybrid model of two data analytical methods, multiple linear regressions and least square (MLR&LS), for ultra-short-term wind power prediction (WPP), for example taking, Northeast China electricity demand. The data was obtained from the historical records of wind power from an offshore region, and from a wind farm of the wind power plant in the areas. The WPP achieved in two stages: first, the ratios of wind power were forecasted using the proposed hybrid method, and then the transformation of these ratios of wind power to obtain forecasted values. The hybrid model combines the persistence methods, MLR and LS. The proposed method included two prediction types, multi-point prediction and single-point prediction. WPP is tested by applying different models such as autoregressive moving average (ARMA), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and artificial neural network (ANN). By comparing results of the above models, the validity of the proposed hybrid model is confirmed in terms of error and correlation coefficient. Comparison of results confirmed that the proposed method works effectively. Additional, forecasting errors were also computed and compared, to improve understanding of how to depict highly variable WPP and the correlations between actual and predicted wind power.

Modeling the North American vertical datum of 1988 errors in the conterminous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, X.

2018-02-01

A large systematic difference (ranging from -20 cm to +130 cm) was found between NAVD 88 (North AmericanVertical Datum of 1988) and the pure gravimetric geoid models. This difference not only makes it very difficult to augment the local geoid model by directly using the vast NAVD 88 network with state-of-the-art technologies recently developed in geodesy, but also limits the ability of researchers to effectively demonstrate the geoid model improvements on the NAVD 88 network. Here, both conventional regression analyses based on various predefined basis functions such as polynomials, B-splines, and Legendre functions and the Latent Variable Analysis (LVA) such as the Factor Analysis (FA) are used to analyze the systematic difference. Besides giving a mathematical model, the regression results do not reveal a great deal about the physical reasons that caused the large differences in NAVD 88, which may be of interest to various researchers. Furthermore, there is still a significant amount of no-Gaussian signals left in the residuals of the conventional regression models. On the other side, the FA method not only provides a better not of the data, but also offers possible explanations of the error sources. Without requiring extra hypothesis tests on the model coefficients, the results from FA are more efficient in terms of capturing the systematic difference. Furthermore, without using a covariance model, a novel interpolating method based on the relationship between the loading matrix and the factor scores is developed for predictive purposes. The prediction error analysis shows that about 3-7 cm precision is expected in NAVD 88 after removing the systematic difference.

Spatially Explicit Estimates of Suspended Sediment and Bedload Transport Rates for Western Oregon and Northwestern California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Connor, J. E.; Wise, D. R.; Mangano, J.; Jones, K.

2015-12-01

Empirical analyses of suspended sediment and bedload transport gives estimates of sediment flux for western Oregon and northwestern California. The estimates of both bedload and suspended load are from regression models relating measured annual sediment yield to geologic, physiographic, and climatic properties of contributing basins. The best models include generalized geology and either slope or precipitation. The best-fit suspended-sediment model is based on basin geology, precipitation, and area of recent wildfire. It explains 65% of the variance for 68 suspended sediment measurement sites within the model area. Predicted suspended sediment yields range from no yield from the High Cascades geologic province to 200 tonnes/ km2-yr in the northern Oregon Coast Range and 1000 tonnes/km2-yr in recently burned areas of the northern Klamath terrain. Bed-material yield is similarly estimated from a regression model based on 22 sites of measured bed-material transport, mostly from reservoir accumulation analyses but also from several bedload measurement programs. The resulting best-fit regression is based on basin slope and the presence/absence of the Klamath geologic terrane. For the Klamath terrane, bed-material yield is twice that of the other geologic provinces. This model explains more than 80% of the variance of the better-quality measurements. Predicted bed-material yields range up to 350 tonnes/ km2-yr in steep areas of the Klamath terrane. Applying these regressions to small individual watersheds (mean size; 66 km2 for bed-material; 3 km2 for suspended sediment) and cumulating totals down the hydrologic network (but also decreasing the bed-material flux by experimentally determined attrition rates) gives spatially explicit estimates of both bed-material and suspended sediment flux. This enables assessment of several management issues, including the effects of dams on bedload transport, instream gravel mining, habitat formation processes, and water-quality. The combined fluxes can also be compared to long-term rock uplift and cosmogenically determined landscape erosion rates.

Predicting local field potentials with recurrent neural networks.

PubMed

Kim, Louis; Harer, Jacob; Rangamani, Akshay; Moran, James; Parks, Philip D; Widge, Alik; Eskandar, Emad; Dougherty, Darin; Chin, Sang Peter

2016-08-01

We present a Recurrent Neural Network using LSTM (Long Short Term Memory) that is capable of modeling and predicting Local Field Potentials. We train and test the network on real data recorded from epilepsy patients. We construct networks that predict multi-channel LFPs for 1, 10, and 100 milliseconds forward in time. Our results show that prediction using LSTM outperforms regression when predicting 10 and 100 millisecond forward in time.

The contribution of wind wave changes on diminishing ice period in Lake Pyhäjärvi during the last half-century.

PubMed

Wu, Tingfeng; Qin, Boqiang; Zhu, Guangwei; Huttula, Timo; Lindfors, Antti; Ventelä, Anne-Mari; Sheng, Yongwei; Ambrose, Richard F

2018-06-21

To address the contribution of long-term wind wave changes on diminishing ice period in Northern European lakes, an in situ observation of wind waves was conducted to calibrate a wind-wave numerical model for Lake Pyhäjärvi, which is the largest lake in southwest Finland. Using station-measured hydrometeorological data from 1963 to 2013 and model-simulated wind waves, correlation and regression analyses were conducted to assess the changing trend and main influences on ice period. Ice period in Lake Pyhäjärvi decreased significantly over 51 years (r = 0.47, P < 0.01). The analysis of main hydrometeorological factors to ice period showed that the significant air temperature rise is the main contributor for the diminishing of ice period in the lake. Besides air temperature, wind-induced waves can also weaken lake ice by increasing water mixing and lake ice breakage. The regression indicated that mean significant wave height in December and April was negatively related to ice period (r = - 0.48, P < 0.01). These results imply that long-term changes of wind waves related to climate change should be considered to fully understand the reduction of aquatic ice at high latitudes.

Determinants of staff commitment to hip protectors in long-term care: A cross-sectional survey.

PubMed

Korall, Alexandra M B; Loughin, Thomas M; Feldman, Fabio; Cameron, Ian D; Leung, Pet Ming; Sims-Gould, Joanie; Godin, Judith; Robinovitch, Stephen N

2018-06-01

If worn, certain models of hip protectors are highly effective at preventing hip fractures from falls in residents of long-term care, but modest acceptance and adherence have limited the effectiveness of hip protectors. Residents of long-term care are more likely to accept the initial offer of hip protectors and to adhere to recommendations concerning the use of hip protectors when staff are committed to supporting the application of hip protectors. Yet, we know very little about the nature of and factors associated with staff commitment to hip protectors in long-term care. To identify factors associated with staff commitment to hip protectors in long-term care. A cross-sectional survey. Thirteen long-term care homes (total beds = 1816) from a single regional health district in British Columbia, Canada. A convenience sample of 535 paid staff who worked most of their time (>50% of work hours) at a participating long-term care home, for at least one month, and for at least 8 h per week. We excluded six (1.1%) respondents who were unaware of hip protectors. Of the remaining 529 respondents, 90% were female and 55% were health care assistants. Respondents completed the Commitment to Hip Protectors Index to indicate their commitment to hip protectors. We used Bayesian Model Averaging logistic regression to model staff commitment as a function of personal variables, experiences with hip protectors, intraorganizational communication and influence, and organizational context. Staff commitment was negatively related to organizational tenure >20 years (posterior probability = 97%; logistic regression coefficient = -0.28; 95% confidence interval = -0.48, -0.08), and awareness of a padded hip fracture (100%; -0.57; -0.69, -0.44). Staff commitment was positively related to the existence of a champion of hip protectors within the home (100%; 0.24; 0.17, 0.31), perceived quality of intraorganizational communication (100%; 0.04; 0.02, 0.05), extent of mutual respect between residents and staff and perceived contribution to quality of life of the residents they serve (100%; 0.10; 0.05, 0.15), and frequency of transformational leadership practices by respondents' primary supervisors (100%; 0.01; 0.01, 0.02). We provide novel insight into the factors governing staff commitment to hip protectors in long-term care. Targeting of these factors could improve acceptance and adherence with hip protectors, thereby contributing to enhanced effectiveness of hip protectors to prevent hip fractures in long-term care. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Interpretation of commonly used statistical regression models.

PubMed

Kasza, Jessica; Wolfe, Rory

2014-01-01

A review of some regression models commonly used in respiratory health applications is provided in this article. Simple linear regression, multiple linear regression, logistic regression and ordinal logistic regression are considered. The focus of this article is on the interpretation of the regression coefficients of each model, which are illustrated through the application of these models to a respiratory health research study. © 2013 The Authors. Respirology © 2013 Asian Pacific Society of Respirology.

Binary Logistic Regression Versus Boosted Regression Trees in Assessing Landslide Susceptibility for Multiple-Occurring Regional Landslide Events: Application to the 2009 Storm Event in Messina (Sicily, southern Italy).

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lombardo, L.; Cama, M.; Maerker, M.; Parisi, L.; Rotigliano, E.

2014-12-01

This study aims at comparing the performances of Binary Logistic Regression (BLR) and Boosted Regression Trees (BRT) methods in assessing landslide susceptibility for multiple-occurrence regional landslide events within the Mediterranean region. A test area was selected in the north-eastern sector of Sicily (southern Italy), corresponding to the catchments of the Briga and the Giampilieri streams both stretching for few kilometres from the Peloritan ridge (eastern Sicily, Italy) to the Ionian sea. This area was struck on the 1st October 2009 by an extreme climatic event resulting in thousands of rapid shallow landslides, mainly of debris flows and debris avalanches types involving the weathered layer of a low to high grade metamorphic bedrock. Exploiting the same set of predictors and the 2009 landslide archive, BLR- and BRT-based susceptibility models were obtained for the two catchments separately, adopting a random partition (RP) technique for validation; besides, the models trained in one of the two catchments (Briga) were tested in predicting the landslide distribution in the other (Giampilieri), adopting a spatial partition (SP) based validation procedure. All the validation procedures were based on multi-folds tests so to evaluate and compare the reliability of the fitting, the prediction skill, the coherence in the predictor selection and the precision of the susceptibility estimates. All the obtained models for the two methods produced very high predictive performances, with a general congruence between BLR and BRT in the predictor importance. In particular, the research highlighted that BRT-models reached a higher prediction performance with respect to BLR-models, for RP based modelling, whilst for the SP-based models the difference in predictive skills between the two methods dropped drastically, converging to an analogous excellent performance. However, when looking at the precision of the probability estimates, BLR demonstrated to produce more robust models in terms of selected predictors and coefficients, as well as of dispersion of the estimated probabilities around the mean value for each mapped pixel. The difference in the behaviour could be interpreted as the result of overfitting effects, which heavily affect decision tree classification more than logistic regression techniques.