A Model for Estimating the Reliability and Validity of Criterion-Referenced Measures.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Edmonston, Leon P.; Randall, Robert S.

A decision model designed to determine the reliability and validity of criterion referenced measures (CRMs) is presented. General procedures which pertain to the model are discussed as to: Measures of relationship, Reliability, Validity (content, criterion-oriented, and construct validation), and Item Analysis. The decision model is presented in…

Reliability Estimation of Aero-engine Based on Mixed Weibull Distribution Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Zhongda; Deng, Junxiang; Wang, Dawei

2018-02-01

Aero-engine is a complex mechanical electronic system, based on analysis of reliability of mechanical electronic system, Weibull distribution model has an irreplaceable role. Till now, only two-parameter Weibull distribution model and three-parameter Weibull distribution are widely used. Due to diversity of engine failure modes, there is a big error with single Weibull distribution model. By contrast, a variety of engine failure modes can be taken into account with mixed Weibull distribution model, so it is a good statistical analysis model. Except the concept of dynamic weight coefficient, in order to make reliability estimation result more accurately, three-parameter correlation coefficient optimization method is applied to enhance Weibull distribution model, thus precision of mixed distribution reliability model is improved greatly. All of these are advantageous to popularize Weibull distribution model in engineering applications.

Method of Testing and Predicting Failures of Electronic Mechanical Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Iverson, David L.; Patterson-Hine, Frances A.

1996-01-01

A method employing a knowledge base of human expertise comprising a reliability model analysis implemented for diagnostic routines is disclosed. The reliability analysis comprises digraph models that determine target events created by hardware failures human actions, and other factors affecting the system operation. The reliability analysis contains a wealth of human expertise information that is used to build automatic diagnostic routines and which provides a knowledge base that can be used to solve other artificial intelligence problems.

Structural reliability analysis under evidence theory using the active learning kriging model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Xufeng; Liu, Yongshou; Ma, Panke

2017-11-01

Structural reliability analysis under evidence theory is investigated. It is rigorously proved that a surrogate model providing only correct sign prediction of the performance function can meet the accuracy requirement of evidence-theory-based reliability analysis. Accordingly, a method based on the active learning kriging model which only correctly predicts the sign of the performance function is proposed. Interval Monte Carlo simulation and a modified optimization method based on Karush-Kuhn-Tucker conditions are introduced to make the method more efficient in estimating the bounds of failure probability based on the kriging model. Four examples are investigated to demonstrate the efficiency and accuracy of the proposed method.

Longitudinal Models of Reliability and Validity: A Latent Curve Approach.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tisak, John; Tisak, Marie S.

1996-01-01

Dynamic generalizations of reliability and validity that will incorporate longitudinal or developmental models, using latent curve analysis, are discussed. A latent curve model formulated to depict change is incorporated into the classical definitions of reliability and validity. The approach is illustrated with sociological and psychological…

Probabilistic risk assessment for a loss of coolant accident in McMaster Nuclear Reactor and application of reliability physics model for modeling human reliability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ha, Taesung

A probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) was conducted for a loss of coolant accident, (LOCA) in the McMaster Nuclear Reactor (MNR). A level 1 PRA was completed including event sequence modeling, system modeling, and quantification. To support the quantification of the accident sequence identified, data analysis using the Bayesian method and human reliability analysis (HRA) using the accident sequence evaluation procedure (ASEP) approach were performed. Since human performance in research reactors is significantly different from that in power reactors, a time-oriented HRA model (reliability physics model) was applied for the human error probability (HEP) estimation of the core relocation. This model is based on two competing random variables: phenomenological time and performance time. The response surface and direct Monte Carlo simulation with Latin Hypercube sampling were applied for estimating the phenomenological time, whereas the performance time was obtained from interviews with operators. An appropriate probability distribution for the phenomenological time was assigned by statistical goodness-of-fit tests. The human error probability (HEP) for the core relocation was estimated from these two competing quantities: phenomenological time and operators' performance time. The sensitivity of each probability distribution in human reliability estimation was investigated. In order to quantify the uncertainty in the predicted HEPs, a Bayesian approach was selected due to its capability of incorporating uncertainties in model itself and the parameters in that model. The HEP from the current time-oriented model was compared with that from the ASEP approach. Both results were used to evaluate the sensitivity of alternative huinan reliability modeling for the manual core relocation in the LOCA risk model. This exercise demonstrated the applicability of a reliability physics model supplemented with a. Bayesian approach for modeling human reliability and its potential usefulness of quantifying model uncertainty as sensitivity analysis in the PRA model.

Lifetime Reliability Prediction of Ceramic Structures Under Transient Thermomechanical Loads

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nemeth, Noel N.; Jadaan, Osama J.; Gyekenyesi, John P.

2005-01-01

An analytical methodology is developed to predict the probability of survival (reliability) of ceramic components subjected to harsh thermomechanical loads that can vary with time (transient reliability analysis). This capability enables more accurate prediction of ceramic component integrity against fracture in situations such as turbine startup and shutdown, operational vibrations, atmospheric reentry, or other rapid heating or cooling situations (thermal shock). The transient reliability analysis methodology developed herein incorporates the following features: fast-fracture transient analysis (reliability analysis without slow crack growth, SCG); transient analysis with SCG (reliability analysis with time-dependent damage due to SCG); a computationally efficient algorithm to compute the reliability for components subjected to repeated transient loading (block loading); cyclic fatigue modeling using a combined SCG and Walker fatigue law; proof testing for transient loads; and Weibull and fatigue parameters that are allowed to vary with temperature or time. Component-to-component variation in strength (stochastic strength response) is accounted for with the Weibull distribution, and either the principle of independent action or the Batdorf theory is used to predict the effect of multiaxial stresses on reliability. The reliability analysis can be performed either as a function of the component surface (for surface-distributed flaws) or component volume (for volume-distributed flaws). The transient reliability analysis capability has been added to the NASA CARES/ Life (Ceramic Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures/Life) code. CARES/Life was also updated to interface with commercially available finite element analysis software, such as ANSYS, when used to model the effects of transient load histories. Examples are provided to demonstrate the features of the methodology as implemented in the CARES/Life program.

Proposed reliability cost model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Delionback, L. M.

1973-01-01

The research investigations which were involved in the study include: cost analysis/allocation, reliability and product assurance, forecasting methodology, systems analysis, and model-building. This is a classic example of an interdisciplinary problem, since the model-building requirements include the need for understanding and communication between technical disciplines on one hand, and the financial/accounting skill categories on the other. The systems approach is utilized within this context to establish a clearer and more objective relationship between reliability assurance and the subcategories (or subelements) that provide, or reenforce, the reliability assurance for a system. Subcategories are further subdivided as illustrated by a tree diagram. The reliability assurance elements can be seen to be potential alternative strategies, or approaches, depending on the specific goals/objectives of the trade studies. The scope was limited to the establishment of a proposed reliability cost-model format. The model format/approach is dependent upon the use of a series of subsystem-oriented CER's and sometimes possible CTR's, in devising a suitable cost-effective policy.

Remotely piloted vehicle: Application of the GRASP analysis method

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Andre, W. L.; Morris, J. B.

1981-01-01

The application of General Reliability Analysis Simulation Program (GRASP) to the remotely piloted vehicle (RPV) system is discussed. The model simulates the field operation of the RPV system. By using individual component reliabilities, the overall reliability of the RPV system is determined. The results of the simulations are given in operational days. The model represented is only a basis from which more detailed work could progress. The RPV system in this model is based on preliminary specifications and estimated values. The use of GRASP from basic system definition, to model input, and to model verification is demonstrated.

Comparing the Fit of Item Response Theory and Factor Analysis Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Maydeu-Olivares, Alberto; Cai, Li; Hernandez, Adolfo

2011-01-01

Linear factor analysis (FA) models can be reliably tested using test statistics based on residual covariances. We show that the same statistics can be used to reliably test the fit of item response theory (IRT) models for ordinal data (under some conditions). Hence, the fit of an FA model and of an IRT model to the same data set can now be…

User's guide to the Reliability Estimation System Testbed (REST)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nicol, David M.; Palumbo, Daniel L.; Rifkin, Adam

1992-01-01

The Reliability Estimation System Testbed is an X-window based reliability modeling tool that was created to explore the use of the Reliability Modeling Language (RML). RML was defined to support several reliability analysis techniques including modularization, graphical representation, Failure Mode Effects Simulation (FMES), and parallel processing. These techniques are most useful in modeling large systems. Using modularization, an analyst can create reliability models for individual system components. The modules can be tested separately and then combined to compute the total system reliability. Because a one-to-one relationship can be established between system components and the reliability modules, a graphical user interface may be used to describe the system model. RML was designed to permit message passing between modules. This feature enables reliability modeling based on a run time simulation of the system wide effects of a component's failure modes. The use of failure modes effects simulation enhances the analyst's ability to correctly express system behavior when using the modularization approach to reliability modeling. To alleviate the computation bottleneck often found in large reliability models, REST was designed to take advantage of parallel processing on hypercube processors.

Development of a Conservative Model Validation Approach for Reliable Analysis

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-01-01

CIE 2015 August 2-5, 2015, Boston, Massachusetts, USA [DRAFT] DETC2015-46982 DEVELOPMENT OF A CONSERVATIVE MODEL VALIDATION APPROACH FOR RELIABLE...obtain a conservative simulation model for reliable design even with limited experimental data. Very little research has taken into account the...3, the proposed conservative model validation is briefly compared to the conventional model validation approach. Section 4 describes how to account

Human Reliability Analysis in Support of Risk Assessment for Positive Train Control

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2003-06-01

This report describes an approach to evaluating the reliability of human actions that are modeled in a probabilistic risk assessment : (PRA) of train control operations. This approach to human reliability analysis (HRA) has been applied in the case o...

Hierarchical modeling for reliability analysis using Markov models. B.S./M.S. Thesis - MIT

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fagundo, Arturo

1994-01-01

Markov models represent an extremely attractive tool for the reliability analysis of many systems. However, Markov model state space grows exponentially with the number of components in a given system. Thus, for very large systems Markov modeling techniques alone become intractable in both memory and CPU time. Often a particular subsystem can be found within some larger system where the dependence of the larger system on the subsystem is of a particularly simple form. This simple dependence can be used to decompose such a system into one or more subsystems. A hierarchical technique is presented which can be used to evaluate these subsystems in such a way that their reliabilities can be combined to obtain the reliability for the full system. This hierarchical approach is unique in that it allows the subsystem model to pass multiple aggregate state information to the higher level model, allowing more general systems to be evaluated. Guidelines are developed to assist in the system decomposition. An appropriate method for determining subsystem reliability is also developed. This method gives rise to some interesting numerical issues. Numerical error due to roundoff and integration are discussed at length. Once a decomposition is chosen, the remaining analysis is straightforward but tedious. However, an approach is developed for simplifying the recombination of subsystem reliabilities. Finally, a real world system is used to illustrate the use of this technique in a more practical context.

Design Optimization Method for Composite Components Based on Moment Reliability-Sensitivity Criteria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Zhigang; Wang, Changxi; Niu, Xuming; Song, Yingdong

2017-08-01

In this paper, a Reliability-Sensitivity Based Design Optimization (RSBDO) methodology for the design of the ceramic matrix composites (CMCs) components has been proposed. A practical and efficient method for reliability analysis and sensitivity analysis of complex components with arbitrary distribution parameters are investigated by using the perturbation method, the respond surface method, the Edgeworth series and the sensitivity analysis approach. The RSBDO methodology is then established by incorporating sensitivity calculation model into RBDO methodology. Finally, the proposed RSBDO methodology is applied to the design of the CMCs components. By comparing with Monte Carlo simulation, the numerical results demonstrate that the proposed methodology provides an accurate, convergent and computationally efficient method for reliability-analysis based finite element modeling engineering practice.

Comprehensive Design Reliability Activities for Aerospace Propulsion Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Christenson, R. L.; Whitley, M. R.; Knight, K. C.

2000-01-01

This technical publication describes the methodology, model, software tool, input data, and analysis result that support aerospace design reliability studies. The focus of these activities is on propulsion systems mechanical design reliability. The goal of these activities is to support design from a reliability perspective. Paralleling performance analyses in schedule and method, this requires the proper use of metrics in a validated reliability model useful for design, sensitivity, and trade studies. Design reliability analysis in this view is one of several critical design functions. A design reliability method is detailed and two example analyses are provided-one qualitative and the other quantitative. The use of aerospace and commercial data sources for quantification is discussed and sources listed. A tool that was developed to support both types of analyses is presented. Finally, special topics discussed include the development of design criteria, issues of reliability quantification, quality control, and reliability verification.

Reliability analysis in interdependent smart grid systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, Hao; Kan, Zhe; Zhao, Dandan; Han, Jianmin; Lu, Jianfeng; Hu, Zhaolong

2018-06-01

Complex network theory is a useful way to study many real complex systems. In this paper, a reliability analysis model based on complex network theory is introduced in interdependent smart grid systems. In this paper, we focus on understanding the structure of smart grid systems and studying the underlying network model, their interactions, and relationships and how cascading failures occur in the interdependent smart grid systems. We propose a practical model for interdependent smart grid systems using complex theory. Besides, based on percolation theory, we also study the effect of cascading failures effect and reveal detailed mathematical analysis of failure propagation in such systems. We analyze the reliability of our proposed model caused by random attacks or failures by calculating the size of giant functioning components in interdependent smart grid systems. Our simulation results also show that there exists a threshold for the proportion of faulty nodes, beyond which the smart grid systems collapse. Also we determine the critical values for different system parameters. In this way, the reliability analysis model based on complex network theory can be effectively utilized for anti-attack and protection purposes in interdependent smart grid systems.

Reliability models: the influence of model specification in generation expansion planning

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stremel, J.P.

1982-10-01

This paper is a critical evaluation of reliability methods used for generation expansion planning. It is shown that the methods for treating uncertainty are critical for determining the relative reliability value of expansion alternatives. It is also shown that the specification of the reliability model will not favor all expansion options equally. Consequently, the model is biased. In addition, reliability models should be augmented with an economic value of reliability (such as the cost of emergency procedures or energy not served). Generation expansion evaluations which ignore the economic value of excess reliability can be shown to be inconsistent. The conclusionsmore » are that, in general, a reliability model simplifies generation expansion planning evaluations. However, for a thorough analysis, the expansion options should be reviewed for candidates which may be unduly rejected because of the bias of the reliability model. And this implies that for a consistent formulation in an optimization framework, the reliability model should be replaced with a full economic optimization which includes the costs of emergency procedures and interruptions in the objective function.« less

A Reliability Estimation in Modeling Watershed Runoff With Uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melching, Charles S.; Yen, Ben Chie; Wenzel, Harry G., Jr.

1990-10-01

The reliability of simulation results produced by watershed runoff models is a function of uncertainties in nature, data, model parameters, and model structure. A framework is presented here for using a reliability analysis method (such as first-order second-moment techniques or Monte Carlo simulation) to evaluate the combined effect of the uncertainties on the reliability of output hydrographs from hydrologic models. For a given event the prediction reliability can be expressed in terms of the probability distribution of the estimated hydrologic variable. The peak discharge probability for a watershed in Illinois using the HEC-1 watershed model is given as an example. The study of the reliability of predictions from watershed models provides useful information on the stochastic nature of output from deterministic models subject to uncertainties and identifies the relative contribution of the various uncertainties to unreliability of model predictions.

Mathematical modeling and fuzzy availability analysis for serial processes in the crystallization system of a sugar plant

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aggarwal, Anil Kr.; Kumar, Sanjeev; Singh, Vikram

2017-03-01

The binary states, i.e., success or failed state assumptions used in conventional reliability are inappropriate for reliability analysis of complex industrial systems due to lack of sufficient probabilistic information. For large complex systems, the uncertainty of each individual parameter enhances the uncertainty of the system reliability. In this paper, the concept of fuzzy reliability has been used for reliability analysis of the system, and the effect of coverage factor, failure and repair rates of subsystems on fuzzy availability for fault-tolerant crystallization system of sugar plant is analyzed. Mathematical modeling of the system is carried out using the mnemonic rule to derive Chapman-Kolmogorov differential equations. These governing differential equations are solved with Runge-Kutta fourth-order method.

A Comparative Evaluation of Mixed Dentition Analysis on Reliability of Cone Beam Computed Tomography Image Compared to Plaster Model.

PubMed

Gowd, Snigdha; Shankar, T; Dash, Samarendra; Sahoo, Nivedita; Chatterjee, Suravi; Mohanty, Pritam

2017-01-01

The aim of the study was to evaluate the reliability of cone beam computed tomography (CBCT) obtained image over plaster model for the assessment of mixed dentition analysis. Thirty CBCT-derived images and thirty plaster models were derived from the dental archives, and Moyer's and Tanaka-Johnston analyses were performed. The data obtained were interpreted and analyzed statistically using SPSS 10.0/PC (SPSS Inc., Chicago, IL, USA). Descriptive and analytical analysis along with Student's t -test was performed to qualitatively evaluate the data and P < 0.05 was considered statistically significant. Statistically, significant results were obtained on data comparison between CBCT-derived images and plaster model; the mean for Moyer's analysis in the left and right lower arch for CBCT and plaster model was 21.2 mm, 21.1 mm and 22.5 mm, 22.5 mm, respectively. CBCT-derived images were less reliable as compared to data obtained directly from plaster model for mixed dentition analysis.

Use of Model-Based Design Methods for Enhancing Resiliency Analysis of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knox, Lenora A.

The most common traditional non-functional requirement analysis is reliability. With systems becoming more complex, networked, and adaptive to environmental uncertainties, system resiliency has recently become the non-functional requirement analysis of choice. Analysis of system resiliency has challenges; which include, defining resilience for domain areas, identifying resilience metrics, determining resilience modeling strategies, and understanding how to best integrate the concepts of risk and reliability into resiliency. Formal methods that integrate all of these concepts do not currently exist in specific domain areas. Leveraging RAMSoS, a model-based reliability analysis methodology for Systems of Systems (SoS), we propose an extension that accounts for resiliency analysis through evaluation of mission performance, risk, and cost using multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) modeling and design trade study variability modeling evaluation techniques. This proposed methodology, coined RAMSoS-RESIL, is applied to a case study in the multi-agent unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) domain to investigate the potential benefits of a mission architecture where functionality to complete a mission is disseminated across multiple UAVs (distributed) opposed to being contained in a single UAV (monolithic). The case study based research demonstrates proof of concept for the proposed model-based technique and provides sufficient preliminary evidence to conclude which architectural design (distributed vs. monolithic) is most resilient based on insight into mission resilience performance, risk, and cost in addition to the traditional analysis of reliability.

Software For Computing Reliability Of Other Software

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nikora, Allen; Antczak, Thomas M.; Lyu, Michael

1995-01-01

Computer Aided Software Reliability Estimation (CASRE) computer program developed for use in measuring reliability of other software. Easier for non-specialists in reliability to use than many other currently available programs developed for same purpose. CASRE incorporates mathematical modeling capabilities of public-domain Statistical Modeling and Estimation of Reliability Functions for Software (SMERFS) computer program and runs in Windows software environment. Provides menu-driven command interface; enabling and disabling of menu options guides user through (1) selection of set of failure data, (2) execution of mathematical model, and (3) analysis of results from model. Written in C language.

Key Reliability Drivers of Liquid Propulsion Engines and A Reliability Model for Sensitivity Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Huang, Zhao-Feng; Fint, Jeffry A.; Kuck, Frederick M.

2005-01-01

This paper is to address the in-flight reliability of a liquid propulsion engine system for a launch vehicle. We first establish a comprehensive list of system and sub-system reliability drivers for any liquid propulsion engine system. We then build a reliability model to parametrically analyze the impact of some reliability parameters. We present sensitivity analysis results for a selected subset of the key reliability drivers using the model. Reliability drivers identified include: number of engines for the liquid propulsion stage, single engine total reliability, engine operation duration, engine thrust size, reusability, engine de-rating or up-rating, engine-out design (including engine-out switching reliability, catastrophic fraction, preventable failure fraction, unnecessary shutdown fraction), propellant specific hazards, engine start and cutoff transient hazards, engine combustion cycles, vehicle and engine interface and interaction hazards, engine health management system, engine modification, engine ground start hold down with launch commit criteria, engine altitude start (1 in. start), Multiple altitude restart (less than 1 restart), component, subsystem and system design, manufacturing/ground operation support/pre and post flight check outs and inspection, extensiveness of the development program. We present some sensitivity analysis results for the following subset of the drivers: number of engines for the propulsion stage, single engine total reliability, engine operation duration, engine de-rating or up-rating requirements, engine-out design, catastrophic fraction, preventable failure fraction, unnecessary shutdown fraction, and engine health management system implementation (basic redlines and more advanced health management systems).

Investigation of reliability indicators of information analysis systems based on Markov’s absorbing chain model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gilmanshin, I. R.; Kirpichnikov, A. P.

2017-09-01

In the result of study of the algorithm of the functioning of the early detection module of excessive losses, it is proven the ability to model it by using absorbing Markov chains. The particular interest is in the study of probability characteristics of early detection module functioning algorithm of losses in order to identify the relationship of indicators of reliability of individual elements, or the probability of occurrence of certain events and the likelihood of transmission of reliable information. The identified relations during the analysis allow to set thresholds reliability characteristics of the system components.

Reliability Assessment for Low-cost Unmanned Aerial Vehicles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Freeman, Paul Michael

Existing low-cost unmanned aerospace systems are unreliable, and engineers must blend reliability analysis with fault-tolerant control in novel ways. This dissertation introduces the University of Minnesota unmanned aerial vehicle flight research platform, a comprehensive simulation and flight test facility for reliability and fault-tolerance research. An industry-standard reliability assessment technique, the failure modes and effects analysis, is performed for an unmanned aircraft. Particular attention is afforded to the control surface and servo-actuation subsystem. Maintaining effector health is essential for safe flight; failures may lead to loss of control incidents. Failure likelihood, severity, and risk are qualitatively assessed for several effector failure modes. Design changes are recommended to improve aircraft reliability based on this analysis. Most notably, the control surfaces are split, providing independent actuation and dual-redundancy. The simulation models for control surface aerodynamic effects are updated to reflect the split surfaces using a first-principles geometric analysis. The failure modes and effects analysis is extended by using a high-fidelity nonlinear aircraft simulation. A trim state discovery is performed to identify the achievable steady, wings-level flight envelope of the healthy and damaged vehicle. Tolerance of elevator actuator failures is studied using familiar tools from linear systems analysis. This analysis reveals significant inherent performance limitations for candidate adaptive/reconfigurable control algorithms used for the vehicle. Moreover, it demonstrates how these tools can be applied in a design feedback loop to make safety-critical unmanned systems more reliable. Control surface impairments that do occur must be quickly and accurately detected. This dissertation also considers fault detection and identification for an unmanned aerial vehicle using model-based and model-free approaches and applies those algorithms to experimental faulted and unfaulted flight test data. Flight tests are conducted with actuator faults that affect the plant input and sensor faults that affect the vehicle state measurements. A model-based detection strategy is designed and uses robust linear filtering methods to reject exogenous disturbances, e.g. wind, while providing robustness to model variation. A data-driven algorithm is developed to operate exclusively on raw flight test data without physical model knowledge. The fault detection and identification performance of these complementary but different methods is compared. Together, enhanced reliability assessment and multi-pronged fault detection and identification techniques can help to bring about the next generation of reliable low-cost unmanned aircraft.

A System for Integrated Reliability and Safety Analyses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kostiuk, Peter; Shapiro, Gerald; Hanson, Dave; Kolitz, Stephan; Leong, Frank; Rosch, Gene; Coumeri, Marc; Scheidler, Peter, Jr.; Bonesteel, Charles

1999-01-01

We present an integrated reliability and aviation safety analysis tool. The reliability models for selected infrastructure components of the air traffic control system are described. The results of this model are used to evaluate the likelihood of seeing outcomes predicted by simulations with failures injected. We discuss the design of the simulation model, and the user interface to the integrated toolset.

The art of fault-tolerant system reliability modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Butler, Ricky W.; Johnson, Sally C.

1990-01-01

A step-by-step tutorial of the methods and tools used for the reliability analysis of fault-tolerant systems is presented. Emphasis is on the representation of architectural features in mathematical models. Details of the mathematical solution of complex reliability models are not presented. Instead the use of several recently developed computer programs--SURE, ASSIST, STEM, PAWS--which automate the generation and solution of these models is described.

Validity and reliability of Chinese version of Adult Carer Quality of Life questionnaire (AC-QoL) in family caregivers of stroke survivors

PubMed Central

Li, Yingshuang; Ding, Chunge

2017-01-01

The Adult Carer Quality of Life questionnaire (AC-QoL) is a reliable and valid instrument used to assess the quality of life (QoL) of adult family caregivers. We explored the psychometric properties and tested the reliability and validity of a Chinese version of the AC-QoL with reliability and validity testing in 409 Chinese stroke caregivers. We used item-total correlation and extreme group comparison to do item analysis. To evaluate its reliability, we used a test-retest reliability approach, intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC), together with Cronbach’s alpha and model-based internal consistency index; to evaluate its validity, we used scale content validity, confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) and exploratory factor analysis (EFA) via principal component analysis with varimax rotation. We found that the CFA did not in fact confirm the original factor model and our EFA yielded a 31-item measure with a five-factor model. In conclusions, although some items performed differently in our analysis of the original English language version and our Chinese language version, our translated AC-QoL is a reliable and valid tool which can be used to assess the quality of life of stroke caregivers in mainland China. Chinese version AC-QoL is a comprehensive and good measurement to understand caregivers and has the potential to be a screening tool to assess QoL of caregiver. PMID:29131845

A unified approach for squeal instability analysis of disc brakes with two types of random-fuzzy uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lü, Hui; Shangguan, Wen-Bin; Yu, Dejie

2017-09-01

Automotive brake systems are always subjected to various types of uncertainties and two types of random-fuzzy uncertainties may exist in the brakes. In this paper, a unified approach is proposed for squeal instability analysis of disc brakes with two types of random-fuzzy uncertainties. In the proposed approach, two uncertainty analysis models with mixed variables are introduced to model the random-fuzzy uncertainties. The first one is the random and fuzzy model, in which random variables and fuzzy variables exist simultaneously and independently. The second one is the fuzzy random model, in which uncertain parameters are all treated as random variables while their distribution parameters are expressed as fuzzy numbers. Firstly, the fuzziness is discretized by using α-cut technique and the two uncertainty analysis models are simplified into random-interval models. Afterwards, by temporarily neglecting interval uncertainties, the random-interval models are degraded into random models, in which the expectations, variances, reliability indexes and reliability probabilities of system stability functions are calculated. And then, by reconsidering the interval uncertainties, the bounds of the expectations, variances, reliability indexes and reliability probabilities are computed based on Taylor series expansion. Finally, by recomposing the analysis results at each α-cut level, the fuzzy reliability indexes and probabilities can be obtained, by which the brake squeal instability can be evaluated. The proposed approach gives a general framework to deal with both types of random-fuzzy uncertainties that may exist in the brakes and its effectiveness is demonstrated by numerical examples. It will be a valuable supplement to the systematic study of brake squeal considering uncertainty.

Culture Representation in Human Reliability Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

David Gertman; Julie Marble; Steven Novack

Understanding human-system response is critical to being able to plan and predict mission success in the modern battlespace. Commonly, human reliability analysis has been used to predict failures of human performance in complex, critical systems. However, most human reliability methods fail to take culture into account. This paper takes an easily understood state of the art human reliability analysis method and extends that method to account for the influence of culture, including acceptance of new technology, upon performance. The cultural parameters used to modify the human reliability analysis were determined from two standard industry approaches to cultural assessment: Hofstede’s (1991)more » cultural factors and Davis’ (1989) technology acceptance model (TAM). The result is called the Culture Adjustment Method (CAM). An example is presented that (1) reviews human reliability assessment with and without cultural attributes for a Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) system attack, (2) demonstrates how country specific information can be used to increase the realism of HRA modeling, and (3) discusses the differences in human error probability estimates arising from cultural differences.« less

A quantitative analysis of the F18 flight control system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Doyle, Stacy A.; Dugan, Joanne B.; Patterson-Hine, Ann

1993-01-01

This paper presents an informal quantitative analysis of the F18 flight control system (FCS). The analysis technique combines a coverage model with a fault tree model. To demonstrate the method's extensive capabilities, we replace the fault tree with a digraph model of the F18 FCS, the only model available to us. The substitution shows that while digraphs have primarily been used for qualitative analysis, they can also be used for quantitative analysis. Based on our assumptions and the particular failure rates assigned to the F18 FCS components, we show that coverage does have a significant effect on the system's reliability and thus it is important to include coverage in the reliability analysis.

A reliability analysis tool for SpaceWire network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Qiang; Zhu, Longjiang; Fei, Haidong; Wang, Xingyou

2017-04-01

A SpaceWire is a standard for on-board satellite networks as the basis for future data-handling architectures. It is becoming more and more popular in space applications due to its technical advantages, including reliability, low power and fault protection, etc. High reliability is the vital issue for spacecraft. Therefore, it is very important to analyze and improve the reliability performance of the SpaceWire network. This paper deals with the problem of reliability modeling and analysis with SpaceWire network. According to the function division of distributed network, a reliability analysis method based on a task is proposed, the reliability analysis of every task can lead to the system reliability matrix, the reliability result of the network system can be deduced by integrating these entire reliability indexes in the matrix. With the method, we develop a reliability analysis tool for SpaceWire Network based on VC, where the computation schemes for reliability matrix and the multi-path-task reliability are also implemented. By using this tool, we analyze several cases on typical architectures. And the analytic results indicate that redundancy architecture has better reliability performance than basic one. In practical, the dual redundancy scheme has been adopted for some key unit, to improve the reliability index of the system or task. Finally, this reliability analysis tool will has a directive influence on both task division and topology selection in the phase of SpaceWire network system design.

A Comparative Evaluation of Mixed Dentition Analysis on Reliability of Cone Beam Computed Tomography Image Compared to Plaster Model

PubMed Central

Gowd, Snigdha; Shankar, T; Dash, Samarendra; Sahoo, Nivedita; Chatterjee, Suravi; Mohanty, Pritam

2017-01-01

Aims and Objective: The aim of the study was to evaluate the reliability of cone beam computed tomography (CBCT) obtained image over plaster model for the assessment of mixed dentition analysis. Materials and Methods: Thirty CBCT-derived images and thirty plaster models were derived from the dental archives, and Moyer's and Tanaka-Johnston analyses were performed. The data obtained were interpreted and analyzed statistically using SPSS 10.0/PC (SPSS Inc., Chicago, IL, USA). Descriptive and analytical analysis along with Student's t-test was performed to qualitatively evaluate the data and P < 0.05 was considered statistically significant. Results: Statistically, significant results were obtained on data comparison between CBCT-derived images and plaster model; the mean for Moyer's analysis in the left and right lower arch for CBCT and plaster model was 21.2 mm, 21.1 mm and 22.5 mm, 22.5 mm, respectively. Conclusion: CBCT-derived images were less reliable as compared to data obtained directly from plaster model for mixed dentition analysis. PMID:28852639

The precision and reliability evaluation of 3-dimensional printed damaged bone and prosthesis models by stereo lithography appearance

PubMed Central

Zou, Yun; Han, Qing; Weng, Xisheng; Zou, Yongwei; Yang, Yingying; Zhang, Kesong; Yang, Kerong; Xu, Xiaolin; Wang, Chenyu; Qin, Yanguo; Wang, Jincheng

2018-01-01

Abstract Recently, clinical application of 3D printed model was increasing. However, there was no systemic study for confirming the precision and reliability of 3D printed model. Some senior clinical doctors mistrusted its reliability in clinical application. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the precision and reliability of stereolithography appearance (SLA) 3D printed model. Some related parameters were selected to research the reliability of SLA 3D printed model. The computed tomography (CT) data of bone/prosthesis and model were collected and 3D reconstructed. Some anatomical parameters were measured and statistical analysis was performed; the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) was used to was used to evaluate the similarity between the model and real bone/prosthesis. the absolute difference (mm) and relative difference (%) were conducted. For prosthesis model, the 3-dimensional error was measured. There was no significant difference in the anatomical parameters except max height (MH) of long bone. All the ICCs were greater than 0.990. The maximum absolute and relative difference were 0.45 mm and 1.10%; The 3-dimensional error analysis showed that positive/minus distance were 0.273 mm/0.237 mm. The application of SLA 3D printed model in diagnosis and treatment process of complex orthopedic disease was reliable and precise. PMID:29419675

The precision and reliability evaluation of 3-dimensional printed damaged bone and prosthesis models by stereo lithography appearance.

PubMed

Zou, Yun; Han, Qing; Weng, Xisheng; Zou, Yongwei; Yang, Yingying; Zhang, Kesong; Yang, Kerong; Xu, Xiaolin; Wang, Chenyu; Qin, Yanguo; Wang, Jincheng

2018-02-01

Recently, clinical application of 3D printed model was increasing. However, there was no systemic study for confirming the precision and reliability of 3D printed model. Some senior clinical doctors mistrusted its reliability in clinical application. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the precision and reliability of stereolithography appearance (SLA) 3D printed model.Some related parameters were selected to research the reliability of SLA 3D printed model. The computed tomography (CT) data of bone/prosthesis and model were collected and 3D reconstructed. Some anatomical parameters were measured and statistical analysis was performed; the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) was used to was used to evaluate the similarity between the model and real bone/prosthesis. the absolute difference (mm) and relative difference (%) were conducted. For prosthesis model, the 3-dimensional error was measured.There was no significant difference in the anatomical parameters except max height (MH) of long bone. All the ICCs were greater than 0.990. The maximum absolute and relative difference were 0.45 mm and 1.10%; The 3-dimensional error analysis showed that positive/minus distance were 0.273 mm/0.237 mm.The application of SLA 3D printed model in diagnosis and treatment process of complex orthopedic disease was reliable and precise.

A Novel Ontology Approach to Support Design for Reliability considering Environmental Effects

PubMed Central

Sun, Bo; Li, Yu; Ye, Tianyuan

2015-01-01

Environmental effects are not considered sufficiently in product design. Reliability problems caused by environmental effects are very prominent. This paper proposes a method to apply ontology approach in product design. During product reliability design and analysis, environmental effects knowledge reusing is achieved. First, the relationship of environmental effects and product reliability is analyzed. Then environmental effects ontology to describe environmental effects domain knowledge is designed. Related concepts of environmental effects are formally defined by using the ontology approach. This model can be applied to arrange environmental effects knowledge in different environments. Finally, rubber seals used in the subhumid acid rain environment are taken as an example to illustrate ontological model application on reliability design and analysis. PMID:25821857

A novel ontology approach to support design for reliability considering environmental effects.

PubMed

Sun, Bo; Li, Yu; Ye, Tianyuan; Ren, Yi

2015-01-01

Environmental effects are not considered sufficiently in product design. Reliability problems caused by environmental effects are very prominent. This paper proposes a method to apply ontology approach in product design. During product reliability design and analysis, environmental effects knowledge reusing is achieved. First, the relationship of environmental effects and product reliability is analyzed. Then environmental effects ontology to describe environmental effects domain knowledge is designed. Related concepts of environmental effects are formally defined by using the ontology approach. This model can be applied to arrange environmental effects knowledge in different environments. Finally, rubber seals used in the subhumid acid rain environment are taken as an example to illustrate ontological model application on reliability design and analysis.

Ceramic component reliability with the restructured NASA/CARES computer program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Powers, Lynn M.; Starlinger, Alois; Gyekenyesi, John P.

1992-01-01

The Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures (CARES) integrated design program on statistical fast fracture reliability and monolithic ceramic components is enhanced to include the use of a neutral data base, two-dimensional modeling, and variable problem size. The data base allows for the efficient transfer of element stresses, temperatures, and volumes/areas from the finite element output to the reliability analysis program. Elements are divided to insure a direct correspondence between the subelements and the Gaussian integration points. Two-dimensional modeling is accomplished by assessing the volume flaw reliability with shell elements. To demonstrate the improvements in the algorithm, example problems are selected from a round-robin conducted by WELFEP (WEakest Link failure probability prediction by Finite Element Postprocessors).

Robustness Analysis and Reliable Flight Regime Estimation of an Integrated Resilent Control System for a Transport Aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shin, Jong-Yeob; Belcastro, Christine

2008-01-01

Formal robustness analysis of aircraft control upset prevention and recovery systems could play an important role in their validation and ultimate certification. As a part of the validation process, this paper describes an analysis method for determining a reliable flight regime in the flight envelope within which an integrated resilent control system can achieve the desired performance of tracking command signals and detecting additive faults in the presence of parameter uncertainty and unmodeled dynamics. To calculate a reliable flight regime, a structured singular value analysis method is applied to analyze the closed-loop system over the entire flight envelope. To use the structured singular value analysis method, a linear fractional transform (LFT) model of a transport aircraft longitudinal dynamics is developed over the flight envelope by using a preliminary LFT modeling software tool developed at the NASA Langley Research Center, which utilizes a matrix-based computational approach. The developed LFT model can capture original nonlinear dynamics over the flight envelope with the ! block which contains key varying parameters: angle of attack and velocity, and real parameter uncertainty: aerodynamic coefficient uncertainty and moment of inertia uncertainty. Using the developed LFT model and a formal robustness analysis method, a reliable flight regime is calculated for a transport aircraft closed-loop system.

Probabilistic structural analysis by extremum methods

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nafday, Avinash M.

1990-01-01

The objective is to demonstrate discrete extremum methods of structural analysis as a tool for structural system reliability evaluation. Specifically, linear and multiobjective linear programming models for analysis of rigid plastic frames under proportional and multiparametric loadings, respectively, are considered. Kinematic and static approaches for analysis form a primal-dual pair in each of these models and have a polyhedral format. Duality relations link extreme points and hyperplanes of these polyhedra and lead naturally to dual methods for system reliability evaluation.

Tutorial: Advanced fault tree applications using HARP

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dugan, Joanne Bechta; Bavuso, Salvatore J.; Boyd, Mark A.

1993-01-01

Reliability analysis of fault tolerant computer systems for critical applications is complicated by several factors. These modeling difficulties are discussed and dynamic fault tree modeling techniques for handling them are described and demonstrated. Several advanced fault tolerant computer systems are described, and fault tree models for their analysis are presented. HARP (Hybrid Automated Reliability Predictor) is a software package developed at Duke University and NASA Langley Research Center that is capable of solving the fault tree models presented.

Reliability and minimal detectable difference in multisegment foot kinematics during shod walking and running.

PubMed

Milner, Clare E; Brindle, Richard A

2016-01-01

There has been increased interest recently in measuring kinematics within the foot during gait. While several multisegment foot models have appeared in the literature, the Oxford foot model has been used frequently for both walking and running. Several studies have reported the reliability for the Oxford foot model, but most studies to date have reported reliability for barefoot walking. The purpose of this study was to determine between-day (intra-rater) and within-session (inter-trial) reliability of the modified Oxford foot model during shod walking and running and calculate minimum detectable difference for common variables of interest. Healthy adult male runners participated. Participants ran and walked in the gait laboratory for five trials of each. Three-dimensional gait analysis was conducted and foot and ankle joint angle time series data were calculated. Participants returned for a second gait analysis at least 5 days later. Intraclass correlation coefficients and minimum detectable difference were determined for walking and for running, to indicate both within-session and between-day reliability. Overall, relative variables were more reliable than absolute variables, and within-session reliability was greater than between-day reliability. Between-day intraclass correlation coefficients were comparable to those reported previously for adults walking barefoot. It is an extension in the use of the Oxford foot model to incorporate wearing a shoe while maintaining marker placement directly on the skin for each segment. These reliability data for walking and running will aid in the determination of meaningful differences in studies which use this model during shod gait. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Optimization of life support systems and their systems reliability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fan, L. T.; Hwang, C. L.; Erickson, L. E.

1971-01-01

The identification, analysis, and optimization of life support systems and subsystems have been investigated. For each system or subsystem that has been considered, the procedure involves the establishment of a set of system equations (or mathematical model) based on theory and experimental evidences; the analysis and simulation of the model; the optimization of the operation, control, and reliability; analysis of sensitivity of the system based on the model; and, if possible, experimental verification of the theoretical and computational results. Research activities include: (1) modeling of air flow in a confined space; (2) review of several different gas-liquid contactors utilizing centrifugal force: (3) review of carbon dioxide reduction contactors in space vehicles and other enclosed structures: (4) application of modern optimal control theory to environmental control of confined spaces; (5) optimal control of class of nonlinear diffusional distributed parameter systems: (6) optimization of system reliability of life support systems and sub-systems: (7) modeling, simulation and optimal control of the human thermal system: and (8) analysis and optimization of the water-vapor eletrolysis cell.

Comparison of Reliability Measures under Factor Analysis and Item Response Theory

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cheng, Ying; Yuan, Ke-Hai; Liu, Cheng

2012-01-01

Reliability of test scores is one of the most pervasive psychometric concepts in measurement. Reliability coefficients based on a unifactor model for continuous indicators include maximal reliability rho and an unweighted sum score-based omega, among many others. With increasing popularity of item response theory, a parallel reliability measure pi…

Reliability Evaluation of Machine Center Components Based on Cascading Failure Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Ying-Zhi; Liu, Jin-Tong; Shen, Gui-Xiang; Long, Zhe; Sun, Shu-Guang

2017-07-01

In order to rectify the problems that the component reliability model exhibits deviation, and the evaluation result is low due to the overlook of failure propagation in traditional reliability evaluation of machine center components, a new reliability evaluation method based on cascading failure analysis and the failure influenced degree assessment is proposed. A direct graph model of cascading failure among components is established according to cascading failure mechanism analysis and graph theory. The failure influenced degrees of the system components are assessed by the adjacency matrix and its transposition, combined with the Pagerank algorithm. Based on the comprehensive failure probability function and total probability formula, the inherent failure probability function is determined to realize the reliability evaluation of the system components. Finally, the method is applied to a machine center, it shows the following: 1) The reliability evaluation values of the proposed method are at least 2.5% higher than those of the traditional method; 2) The difference between the comprehensive and inherent reliability of the system component presents a positive correlation with the failure influenced degree of the system component, which provides a theoretical basis for reliability allocation of machine center system.

Dynamic decision-making for reliability and maintenance analysis of manufacturing systems based on failure effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Ding; Zhang, Yingjie

2017-09-01

A framework for reliability and maintenance analysis of job shop manufacturing systems is proposed in this paper. An efficient preventive maintenance (PM) policy in terms of failure effects analysis (FEA) is proposed. Subsequently, reliability evaluation and component importance measure based on FEA are performed under the PM policy. A job shop manufacturing system is applied to validate the reliability evaluation and dynamic maintenance policy. Obtained results are compared with existed methods and the effectiveness is validated. Some vague understandings for issues such as network modelling, vulnerabilities identification, the evaluation criteria of repairable systems, as well as PM policy during manufacturing system reliability analysis are elaborated. This framework can help for reliability optimisation and rational maintenance resources allocation of job shop manufacturing systems.

Accurate reliability analysis method for quantum-dot cellular automata circuits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cui, Huanqing; Cai, Li; Wang, Sen; Liu, Xiaoqiang; Yang, Xiaokuo

2015-10-01

Probabilistic transfer matrix (PTM) is a widely used model in the reliability research of circuits. However, PTM model cannot reflect the impact of input signals on reliability, so it does not completely conform to the mechanism of the novel field-coupled nanoelectronic device which is called quantum-dot cellular automata (QCA). It is difficult to get accurate results when PTM model is used to analyze the reliability of QCA circuits. To solve this problem, we present the fault tree models of QCA fundamental devices according to different input signals. After that, the binary decision diagram (BDD) is used to quantitatively investigate the reliability of two QCA XOR gates depending on the presented models. By employing the fault tree models, the impact of input signals on reliability can be identified clearly and the crucial components of a circuit can be found out precisely based on the importance values (IVs) of components. So this method is contributive to the construction of reliable QCA circuits.

Reliability generalization study of the Yale-Brown Obsessive-Compulsive Scale for children and adolescents.

PubMed

López-Pina, José Antonio; Sánchez-Meca, Julio; López-López, José Antonio; Marín-Martínez, Fulgencio; Núñez-Núñez, Rosa Ma; Rosa-Alcázar, Ana I; Gómez-Conesa, Antonia; Ferrer-Requena, Josefa

2015-01-01

The Yale-Brown Obsessive-Compulsive Scale for children and adolescents (CY-BOCS) is a frequently applied test to assess obsessive-compulsive symptoms. We conducted a reliability generalization meta-analysis on the CY-BOCS to estimate the average reliability, search for reliability moderators, and propose a predictive model that researchers and clinicians can use to estimate the expected reliability of the CY-BOCS scores. A total of 47 studies reporting a reliability coefficient with the data at hand were included in the meta-analysis. The results showed good reliability and a large variability associated to the standard deviation of total scores and sample size.

Reliability Analysis of the Electrical Control System of Subsea Blowout Preventers Using Markov Models

PubMed Central

Liu, Zengkai; Liu, Yonghong; Cai, Baoping

2014-01-01

Reliability analysis of the electrical control system of a subsea blowout preventer (BOP) stack is carried out based on Markov method. For the subsea BOP electrical control system used in the current work, the 3-2-1-0 and 3-2-0 input voting schemes are available. The effects of the voting schemes on system performance are evaluated based on Markov models. In addition, the effects of failure rates of the modules and repair time on system reliability indices are also investigated. PMID:25409010

Superior model for fault tolerance computation in designing nano-sized circuit systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Singh, N. S. S., E-mail: narinderjit@petronas.com.my; Muthuvalu, M. S., E-mail: msmuthuvalu@gmail.com; Asirvadam, V. S., E-mail: vijanth-sagayan@petronas.com.my

2014-10-24

As CMOS technology scales nano-metrically, reliability turns out to be a decisive subject in the design methodology of nano-sized circuit systems. As a result, several computational approaches have been developed to compute and evaluate reliability of desired nano-electronic circuits. The process of computing reliability becomes very troublesome and time consuming as the computational complexity build ups with the desired circuit size. Therefore, being able to measure reliability instantly and superiorly is fast becoming necessary in designing modern logic integrated circuits. For this purpose, the paper firstly looks into the development of an automated reliability evaluation tool based on the generalizationmore » of Probabilistic Gate Model (PGM) and Boolean Difference-based Error Calculator (BDEC) models. The Matlab-based tool allows users to significantly speed-up the task of reliability analysis for very large number of nano-electronic circuits. Secondly, by using the developed automated tool, the paper explores into a comparative study involving reliability computation and evaluation by PGM and, BDEC models for different implementations of same functionality circuits. Based on the reliability analysis, BDEC gives exact and transparent reliability measures, but as the complexity of the same functionality circuits with respect to gate error increases, reliability measure by BDEC tends to be lower than the reliability measure by PGM. The lesser reliability measure by BDEC is well explained in this paper using distribution of different signal input patterns overtime for same functionality circuits. Simulation results conclude that the reliability measure by BDEC depends not only on faulty gates but it also depends on circuit topology, probability of input signals being one or zero and also probability of error on signal lines.« less

Reliability Analysis of a Green Roof Under Different Storm Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

William, R. K.; Stillwell, A. S.

2015-12-01

Urban environments continue to face the challenges of localized flooding and decreased water quality brought on by the increasing amount of impervious area in the built environment. Green infrastructure provides an alternative to conventional storm sewer design by using natural processes to filter and store stormwater at its source. However, there are currently few consistent standards available in North America to ensure that installed green infrastructure is performing as expected. This analysis offers a method for characterizing green roof failure using a visual aid commonly used in earthquake engineering: fragility curves. We adapted the concept of the fragility curve based on the efficiency in runoff reduction provided by a green roof compared to a conventional roof under different storm scenarios. We then used the 2D distributed surface water-groundwater coupled model MIKE SHE to model the impact that a real green roof might have on runoff in different storm events. We then employed a multiple regression analysis to generate an algebraic demand model that was input into the Matlab-based reliability analysis model FERUM, which was then used to calculate the probability of failure. The use of reliability analysis as a part of green infrastructure design code can provide insights into green roof weaknesses and areas for improvement. It also supports the design of code that is more resilient than current standards and is easily testable for failure. Finally, the understanding of reliability of a single green roof module under different scenarios can support holistic testing of system reliability.

Reliability and coverage analysis of non-repairable fault-tolerant memory systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cox, G. W.; Carroll, B. D.

1976-01-01

A method was developed for the construction of probabilistic state-space models for nonrepairable systems. Models were developed for several systems which achieved reliability improvement by means of error-coding, modularized sparing, massive replication and other fault-tolerant techniques. From the models developed, sets of reliability and coverage equations for the systems were developed. Comparative analyses of the systems were performed using these equation sets. In addition, the effects of varying subunit reliabilities on system reliability and coverage were described. The results of these analyses indicated that a significant gain in system reliability may be achieved by use of combinations of modularized sparing, error coding, and software error control. For sufficiently reliable system subunits, this gain may far exceed the reliability gain achieved by use of massive replication techniques, yet result in a considerable saving in system cost.

JUPITER PROJECT - JOINT UNIVERSAL PARAMETER IDENTIFICATION AND EVALUATION OF RELIABILITY

EPA Science Inventory

The JUPITER (Joint Universal Parameter IdenTification and Evaluation of Reliability) project builds on the technology of two widely used codes for sensitivity analysis, data assessment, calibration, and uncertainty analysis of environmental models: PEST and UCODE.

The reliability of nonlinear least-squares algorithm for data analysis of neural response activity during sinusoidal rotational stimulation in semicircular canal neurons.

PubMed

Ren, Pengyu; Li, Bowen; Dong, Shiyao; Chen, Lin; Zhang, Yuelin

2018-01-01

Although many mathematical methods were used to analyze the neural activity under sinusoidal stimulation within linear response range in vestibular system, the reliabilities of these methods are still not reported, especially in nonlinear response range. Here we chose nonlinear least-squares algorithm (NLSA) with sinusoidal model to analyze the neural response of semicircular canal neurons (SCNs) during sinusoidal rotational stimulation (SRS) over a nonlinear response range. Our aim was to acquire a reliable mathematical method for data analysis under SRS in vestibular system. Our data indicated that the reliability of this method in an entire SCNs population was quite satisfactory. However, the reliability was strongly negatively depended on the neural discharge regularity. In addition, stimulation parameters were the vital impact factors influencing the reliability. The frequency had a significant negative effect but the amplitude had a conspicuous positive effect on the reliability. Thus, NLSA with sinusoidal model resulted a reliable mathematical tool for data analysis of neural response activity under SRS in vestibular system and more suitable for those under the stimulation with low frequency but high amplitude, suggesting that this method can be used in nonlinear response range. This method broke out of the restriction of neural activity analysis under nonlinear response range and provided a solid foundation for future study in nonlinear response range in vestibular system.

The reliability of nonlinear least-squares algorithm for data analysis of neural response activity during sinusoidal rotational stimulation in semicircular canal neurons

PubMed Central

Li, Bowen; Dong, Shiyao; Chen, Lin; Zhang, Yuelin

2018-01-01

Although many mathematical methods were used to analyze the neural activity under sinusoidal stimulation within linear response range in vestibular system, the reliabilities of these methods are still not reported, especially in nonlinear response range. Here we chose nonlinear least-squares algorithm (NLSA) with sinusoidal model to analyze the neural response of semicircular canal neurons (SCNs) during sinusoidal rotational stimulation (SRS) over a nonlinear response range. Our aim was to acquire a reliable mathematical method for data analysis under SRS in vestibular system. Our data indicated that the reliability of this method in an entire SCNs population was quite satisfactory. However, the reliability was strongly negatively depended on the neural discharge regularity. In addition, stimulation parameters were the vital impact factors influencing the reliability. The frequency had a significant negative effect but the amplitude had a conspicuous positive effect on the reliability. Thus, NLSA with sinusoidal model resulted a reliable mathematical tool for data analysis of neural response activity under SRS in vestibular system and more suitable for those under the stimulation with low frequency but high amplitude, suggesting that this method can be used in nonlinear response range. This method broke out of the restriction of neural activity analysis under nonlinear response range and provided a solid foundation for future study in nonlinear response range in vestibular system. PMID:29304173

Design Strategy for a Formally Verified Reliable Computing Platform

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Butler, Ricky W.; Caldwell, James L.; DiVito, Ben L.

1991-01-01

This paper presents a high-level design for a reliable computing platform for real-time control applications. The design tradeoffs and analyses related to the development of a formally verified reliable computing platform are discussed. The design strategy advocated in this paper requires the use of techniques that can be completely characterized mathematically as opposed to more powerful or more flexible algorithms whose performance properties can only be analyzed by simulation and testing. The need for accurate reliability models that can be related to the behavior models is also stressed. Tradeoffs between reliability and voting complexity are explored. In particular, the transient recovery properties of the system are found to be fundamental to both the reliability analysis as well as the "correctness" models.

Models for evaluating the performability of degradable computing systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wu, L. T.

1982-01-01

Recent advances in multiprocessor technology established the need for unified methods to evaluate computing systems performance and reliability. In response to this modeling need, a general modeling framework that permits the modeling, analysis and evaluation of degradable computing systems is considered. Within this framework, several user oriented performance variables are identified and shown to be proper generalizations of the traditional notions of system performance and reliability. Furthermore, a time varying version of the model is developed to generalize the traditional fault tree reliability evaluation methods of phased missions.

Space Shuttle Rudder Speed Brake Actuator-A Case Study Probabilistic Fatigue Life and Reliability Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oswald, Fred B.; Savage, Michael; Zaretsky, Erwin V.

2015-01-01

The U.S. Space Shuttle fleet was originally intended to have a life of 100 flights for each vehicle, lasting over a 10-year period, with minimal scheduled maintenance or inspection. The first space shuttle flight was that of the Space Shuttle Columbia (OV-102), launched April 12, 1981. The disaster that destroyed Columbia occurred on its 28th flight, February 1, 2003, nearly 22 years after its first launch. In order to minimize risk of losing another Space Shuttle, a probabilistic life and reliability analysis was conducted for the Space Shuttle rudder/speed brake actuators to determine the number of flights the actuators could sustain. A life and reliability assessment of the actuator gears was performed in two stages: a contact stress fatigue model and a gear tooth bending fatigue model. For the contact stress analysis, the Lundberg-Palmgren bearing life theory was expanded to include gear-surface pitting for the actuator as a system. The mission spectrum of the Space Shuttle rudder/speed brake actuator was combined into equivalent effective hinge moment loads including an actuator input preload for the contact stress fatigue and tooth bending fatigue models. Gear system reliabilities are reported for both models and their combination. Reliability of the actuator bearings was analyzed separately, based on data provided by the actuator manufacturer. As a result of the analysis, the reliability of one half of a single actuator was calculated to be 98.6 percent for 12 flights. Accordingly, each actuator was subsequently limited to 12 flights before removal from service in the Space Shuttle.

The Yale-Brown Obsessive Compulsive Scale: A Reliability Generalization Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

López-Pina, José Antonio; Sánchez-Meca, Julio; López-López, José Antonio; Marín-Martínez, Fulgencio; Núñez-Núñez, Rosa Maria; Rosa-Alcázar, Ana I; Gómez-Conesa, Antonia; Ferrer-Requena, Josefa

2015-10-01

The Yale-Brown Obsessive Compulsive Scale (Y-BOCS) is the most frequently applied test to assess obsessive compulsive symptoms. We conducted a reliability generalization meta-analysis on the Y-BOCS to estimate the average reliability, examine the variability among the reliability estimates, search for moderators, and propose a predictive model that researchers and clinicians can use to estimate the expected reliability of the Y-BOCS. We included studies where the Y-BOCS was applied to a sample of adults and reliability estimate was reported. Out of the 11,490 references located, 144 studies met the selection criteria. For the total scale, the mean reliability was 0.866 for coefficients alpha, 0.848 for test-retest correlations, and 0.922 for intraclass correlations. The moderator analyses led to a predictive model where the standard deviation of the total test and the target population (clinical vs. nonclinical) explained 38.6% of the total variability among coefficients alpha. Finally, clinical implications of the results are discussed. © The Author(s) 2014.

Evaluation Applied to Reliability Analysis of Reconfigurable, Highly Reliable, Fault-Tolerant, Computing Systems for Avionics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Migneault, G. E.

1979-01-01

Emulation techniques are proposed as a solution to a difficulty arising in the analysis of the reliability of highly reliable computer systems for future commercial aircraft. The difficulty, viz., the lack of credible precision in reliability estimates obtained by analytical modeling techniques are established. The difficulty is shown to be an unavoidable consequence of: (1) a high reliability requirement so demanding as to make system evaluation by use testing infeasible, (2) a complex system design technique, fault tolerance, (3) system reliability dominated by errors due to flaws in the system definition, and (4) elaborate analytical modeling techniques whose precision outputs are quite sensitive to errors of approximation in their input data. The technique of emulation is described, indicating how its input is a simple description of the logical structure of a system and its output is the consequent behavior. The use of emulation techniques is discussed for pseudo-testing systems to evaluate bounds on the parameter values needed for the analytical techniques.

Reliability Analysis and Reliability-Based Design Optimization of Circular Composite Cylinders Under Axial Compression

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rais-Rohani, Masoud

2001-01-01

This report describes the preliminary results of an investigation on component reliability analysis and reliability-based design optimization of thin-walled circular composite cylinders with average diameter and average length of 15 inches. Structural reliability is based on axial buckling strength of the cylinder. Both Monte Carlo simulation and First Order Reliability Method are considered for reliability analysis with the latter incorporated into the reliability-based structural optimization problem. To improve the efficiency of reliability sensitivity analysis and design optimization solution, the buckling strength of the cylinder is estimated using a second-order response surface model. The sensitivity of the reliability index with respect to the mean and standard deviation of each random variable is calculated and compared. The reliability index is found to be extremely sensitive to the applied load and elastic modulus of the material in the fiber direction. The cylinder diameter was found to have the third highest impact on the reliability index. Also the uncertainty in the applied load, captured by examining different values for its coefficient of variation, is found to have a large influence on cylinder reliability. The optimization problem for minimum weight is solved subject to a design constraint on element reliability index. The methodology, solution procedure and optimization results are included in this report.

Reliability modelling and analysis of thermal MEMS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muratet, Sylvaine; Lavu, Srikanth; Fourniols, Jean-Yves; Bell, George; Desmulliez, Marc P. Y.

2006-04-01

This paper presents a MEMS reliability study methodology based on the novel concept of 'virtual prototyping'. This methodology can be used for the development of reliable sensors or actuators and also to characterize their behaviour in specific use conditions and applications. The methodology is demonstrated on the U-shaped micro electro thermal actuator used as test vehicle. To demonstrate this approach, a 'virtual prototype' has been developed with the modeling tools MatLab and VHDL-AMS. A best practice FMEA (Failure Mode and Effect Analysis) is applied on the thermal MEMS to investigate and assess the failure mechanisms. Reliability study is performed by injecting the identified defaults into the 'virtual prototype'. The reliability characterization methodology predicts the evolution of the behavior of these MEMS as a function of the number of cycles of operation and specific operational conditions.

Validation and Improvement of Reliability Methods for Air Force Building Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

focusing primarily on HVAC systems . This research used contingency analysis to assess the performance of each model for HVAC systems at six Air Force...probabilistic model produced inflated reliability calculations for HVAC systems . In light of these findings, this research employed a stochastic method, a...Nonhomogeneous Poisson Process (NHPP), in an attempt to produce accurate HVAC system reliability calculations. This effort ultimately concluded that

Chapter 15: Reliability of Wind Turbines

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sheng, Shuangwen; O'Connor, Ryan

The global wind industry has witnessed exciting developments in recent years. The future will be even brighter with further reductions in capital and operation and maintenance costs, which can be accomplished with improved turbine reliability, especially when turbines are installed offshore. One opportunity for the industry to improve wind turbine reliability is through the exploration of reliability engineering life data analysis based on readily available data or maintenance records collected at typical wind plants. If adopted and conducted appropriately, these analyses can quickly save operation and maintenance costs in a potentially impactful manner. This chapter discusses wind turbine reliability bymore » highlighting the methodology of reliability engineering life data analysis. It first briefly discusses fundamentals for wind turbine reliability and the current industry status. Then, the reliability engineering method for life analysis, including data collection, model development, and forecasting, is presented in detail and illustrated through two case studies. The chapter concludes with some remarks on potential opportunities to improve wind turbine reliability. An owner and operator's perspective is taken and mechanical components are used to exemplify the potential benefits of reliability engineering analysis to improve wind turbine reliability and availability.« less

Cluster-based upper body marker models for three-dimensional kinematic analysis: Comparison with an anatomical model and reliability analysis.

PubMed

Boser, Quinn A; Valevicius, Aïda M; Lavoie, Ewen B; Chapman, Craig S; Pilarski, Patrick M; Hebert, Jacqueline S; Vette, Albert H

2018-04-27

Quantifying angular joint kinematics of the upper body is a useful method for assessing upper limb function. Joint angles are commonly obtained via motion capture, tracking markers placed on anatomical landmarks. This method is associated with limitations including administrative burden, soft tissue artifacts, and intra- and inter-tester variability. An alternative method involves the tracking of rigid marker clusters affixed to body segments, calibrated relative to anatomical landmarks or known joint angles. The accuracy and reliability of applying this cluster method to the upper body has, however, not been comprehensively explored. Our objective was to compare three different upper body cluster models with an anatomical model, with respect to joint angles and reliability. Non-disabled participants performed two standardized functional upper limb tasks with anatomical and cluster markers applied concurrently. Joint angle curves obtained via the marker clusters with three different calibration methods were compared to those from an anatomical model, and between-session reliability was assessed for all models. The cluster models produced joint angle curves which were comparable to and highly correlated with those from the anatomical model, but exhibited notable offsets and differences in sensitivity for some degrees of freedom. Between-session reliability was comparable between all models, and good for most degrees of freedom. Overall, the cluster models produced reliable joint angles that, however, cannot be used interchangeably with anatomical model outputs to calculate kinematic metrics. Cluster models appear to be an adequate, and possibly advantageous alternative to anatomical models when the objective is to assess trends in movement behavior. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Study of complete interconnect reliability for a GaAs MMIC power amplifier

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Qian; Wu, Haifeng; Chen, Shan-ji; Jia, Guoqing; Jiang, Wei; Chen, Chao

2018-05-01

By combining the finite element analysis (FEA) and artificial neural network (ANN) technique, the complete prediction of interconnect reliability for a monolithic microwave integrated circuit (MMIC) power amplifier (PA) at the both of direct current (DC) and alternating current (AC) operation conditions is achieved effectively in this article. As a example, a MMIC PA is modelled to study the electromigration failure of interconnect. This is the first time to study the interconnect reliability for an MMIC PA at the conditions of DC and AC operation simultaneously. By training the data from FEA, a high accuracy ANN model for PA reliability is constructed. Then, basing on the reliability database which is obtained from the ANN model, it can give important guidance for improving the reliability design for IC.

A study of fault prediction and reliability assessment in the SEL environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Basili, Victor R.; Patnaik, Debabrata

1986-01-01

An empirical study on estimation and prediction of faults, prediction of fault detection and correction effort, and reliability assessment in the Software Engineering Laboratory environment (SEL) is presented. Fault estimation using empirical relationships and fault prediction using curve fitting method are investigated. Relationships between debugging efforts (fault detection and correction effort) in different test phases are provided, in order to make an early estimate of future debugging effort. This study concludes with the fault analysis, application of a reliability model, and analysis of a normalized metric for reliability assessment and reliability monitoring during development of software.

Test-retest reliability of effective connectivity in the face perception network.

PubMed

Frässle, Stefan; Paulus, Frieder Michel; Krach, Sören; Jansen, Andreas

2016-02-01

Computational approaches have great potential for moving neuroscience toward mechanistic models of the functional integration among brain regions. Dynamic causal modeling (DCM) offers a promising framework for inferring the effective connectivity among brain regions and thus unraveling the neural mechanisms of both normal cognitive function and psychiatric disorders. While the benefit of such approaches depends heavily on their reliability, systematic analyses of the within-subject stability are rare. Here, we present a thorough investigation of the test-retest reliability of an fMRI paradigm for DCM analysis dedicated to unraveling intra- and interhemispheric integration among the core regions of the face perception network. First, we examined the reliability of face-specific BOLD activity in 25 healthy volunteers, who performed a face perception paradigm in two separate sessions. We found good to excellent reliability of BOLD activity within the DCM-relevant regions. Second, we assessed the stability of effective connectivity among these regions by analyzing the reliability of Bayesian model selection and model parameter estimation in DCM. Reliability was excellent for the negative free energy and good for model parameter estimation, when restricting the analysis to parameters with substantial effect sizes. Third, even when the experiment was shortened, reliability of BOLD activity and DCM results dropped only slightly as a function of the length of the experiment. This suggests that the face perception paradigm presented here provides reliable estimates for both conventional activation and effective connectivity measures. We conclude this paper with an outlook on potential clinical applications of the paradigm for studying psychiatric disorders. Hum Brain Mapp 37:730-744, 2016. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Space station software reliability analysis based on failures observed during testing at the multisystem integration facility

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tamayo, Tak Chai

1987-01-01

Quality of software not only is vital to the successful operation of the space station, it is also an important factor in establishing testing requirements, time needed for software verification and integration as well as launching schedules for the space station. Defense of management decisions can be greatly strengthened by combining engineering judgments with statistical analysis. Unlike hardware, software has the characteristics of no wearout and costly redundancies, thus making traditional statistical analysis not suitable in evaluating reliability of software. A statistical model was developed to provide a representation of the number as well as types of failures occur during software testing and verification. From this model, quantitative measure of software reliability based on failure history during testing are derived. Criteria to terminate testing based on reliability objectives and methods to estimate the expected number of fixings required are also presented.

Techniques for modeling the reliability of fault-tolerant systems with the Markov state-space approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Butler, Ricky W.; Johnson, Sally C.

1995-01-01

This paper presents a step-by-step tutorial of the methods and the tools that were used for the reliability analysis of fault-tolerant systems. The approach used in this paper is the Markov (or semi-Markov) state-space method. The paper is intended for design engineers with a basic understanding of computer architecture and fault tolerance, but little knowledge of reliability modeling. The representation of architectural features in mathematical models is emphasized. This paper does not present details of the mathematical solution of complex reliability models. Instead, it describes the use of several recently developed computer programs SURE, ASSIST, STEM, and PAWS that automate the generation and the solution of these models.

PSHFT - COMPUTERIZED LIFE AND RELIABILITY MODELLING FOR TURBOPROP TRANSMISSIONS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Savage, M.

1994-01-01

The computer program PSHFT calculates the life of a variety of aircraft transmissions. A generalized life and reliability model is presented for turboprop and parallel shaft geared prop-fan aircraft transmissions. The transmission life and reliability model is a combination of the individual reliability models for all the bearings and gears in the main load paths. The bearing and gear reliability models are based on the statistical two parameter Weibull failure distribution method and classical fatigue theories. The computer program developed to calculate the transmission model is modular. In its present form, the program can analyze five different transmissions arrangements. Moreover, the program can be easily modified to include additional transmission arrangements. PSHFT uses the properties of a common block two-dimensional array to separate the component and transmission property values from the analysis subroutines. The rows correspond to specific components with the first row containing the values for the entire transmission. Columns contain the values for specific properties. Since the subroutines (which determine the transmission life and dynamic capacity) interface solely with this property array, they are separated from any specific transmission configuration. The system analysis subroutines work in an identical manner for all transmission configurations considered. Thus, other configurations can be added to the program by simply adding component property determination subroutines. PSHFT consists of a main program, a series of configuration specific subroutines, generic component property analysis subroutines, systems analysis subroutines, and a common block. The main program selects the routines to be used in the analysis and sequences their operation. The series of configuration specific subroutines input the configuration data, perform the component force and life analyses (with the help of the generic component property analysis subroutines), fill the property array, call up the system analysis routines, and finally print out the analysis results for the system and components. PSHFT is written in FORTRAN 77 and compiled on a MicroSoft FORTRAN compiler. The program will run on an IBM PC AT compatible with at least 104k bytes of memory. The program was developed in 1988.

A simulation model for risk assessment of turbine wheels

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Safie, Fayssal M.; Hage, Richard T.

1991-01-01

A simulation model has been successfully developed to evaluate the risk of the Space Shuttle auxiliary power unit (APU) turbine wheels for a specific inspection policy. Besides being an effective tool for risk/reliability evaluation, the simulation model also allows the analyst to study the trade-offs between wheel reliability, wheel life, inspection interval, and rejection crack size. For example, in the APU application, sensitivity analysis results showed that the wheel life limit has the least effect on wheel reliability when compared to the effect of the inspection interval and the rejection crack size. In summary, the simulation model developed represents a flexible tool to predict turbine wheel reliability and study the risk under different inspection policies.

A simulation model for risk assessment of turbine wheels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Safie, Fayssal M.; Hage, Richard T.

A simulation model has been successfully developed to evaluate the risk of the Space Shuttle auxiliary power unit (APU) turbine wheels for a specific inspection policy. Besides being an effective tool for risk/reliability evaluation, the simulation model also allows the analyst to study the trade-offs between wheel reliability, wheel life, inspection interval, and rejection crack size. For example, in the APU application, sensitivity analysis results showed that the wheel life limit has the least effect on wheel reliability when compared to the effect of the inspection interval and the rejection crack size. In summary, the simulation model developed represents a flexible tool to predict turbine wheel reliability and study the risk under different inspection policies.

An approach to solving large reliability models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boyd, Mark A.; Veeraraghavan, Malathi; Dugan, Joanne Bechta; Trivedi, Kishor S.

1988-01-01

This paper describes a unified approach to the problem of solving large realistic reliability models. The methodology integrates behavioral decomposition, state trunction, and efficient sparse matrix-based numerical methods. The use of fault trees, together with ancillary information regarding dependencies to automatically generate the underlying Markov model state space is proposed. The effectiveness of this approach is illustrated by modeling a state-of-the-art flight control system and a multiprocessor system. Nonexponential distributions for times to failure of components are assumed in the latter example. The modeling tool used for most of this analysis is HARP (the Hybrid Automated Reliability Predictor).

BUILDING MODEL ANALYSIS APPLICATIONS WITH THE JOINT UNIVERSAL PARAMETER IDENTIFICATION AND EVALUATION OF RELIABILITY (JUPITER) API

EPA Science Inventory

The open-source, public domain JUPITER (Joint Universal Parameter IdenTification and Evaluation of Reliability) API (Application Programming Interface) provides conventions and Fortran-90 modules to develop applications (computer programs) for analyzing process models. The input ...

A reliability design method for a lithium-ion battery pack considering the thermal disequilibrium in electric vehicles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xia, Quan; Wang, Zili; Ren, Yi; Sun, Bo; Yang, Dezhen; Feng, Qiang

2018-05-01

With the rapid development of lithium-ion battery technology in the electric vehicle (EV) industry, the lifetime of the battery cell increases substantially; however, the reliability of the battery pack is still inadequate. Because of the complexity of the battery pack, a reliability design method for a lithium-ion battery pack considering the thermal disequilibrium is proposed in this paper based on cell redundancy. Based on this method, a three-dimensional electric-thermal-flow-coupled model, a stochastic degradation model of cells under field dynamic conditions and a multi-state system reliability model of a battery pack are established. The relationships between the multi-physics coupling model, the degradation model and the system reliability model are first constructed to analyze the reliability of the battery pack and followed by analysis examples with different redundancy strategies. By comparing the reliability of battery packs of different redundant cell numbers and configurations, several conclusions for the redundancy strategy are obtained. More notably, the reliability does not monotonically increase with the number of redundant cells for the thermal disequilibrium effects. In this work, the reliability of a 6 × 5 parallel-series configuration is the optimal system structure. In addition, the effect of the cell arrangement and cooling conditions are investigated.

Reliability Quantification of Advanced Stirling Convertor (ASC) Components

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shah, Ashwin R.; Korovaichuk, Igor; Zampino, Edward

2010-01-01

The Advanced Stirling Convertor, is intended to provide power for an unmanned planetary spacecraft and has an operational life requirement of 17 years. Over this 17 year mission, the ASC must provide power with desired performance and efficiency and require no corrective maintenance. Reliability demonstration testing for the ASC was found to be very limited due to schedule and resource constraints. Reliability demonstration must involve the application of analysis, system and component level testing, and simulation models, taken collectively. Therefore, computer simulation with limited test data verification is a viable approach to assess the reliability of ASC components. This approach is based on physics-of-failure mechanisms and involves the relationship among the design variables based on physics, mechanics, material behavior models, interaction of different components and their respective disciplines such as structures, materials, fluid, thermal, mechanical, electrical, etc. In addition, these models are based on the available test data, which can be updated, and analysis refined as more data and information becomes available. The failure mechanisms and causes of failure are included in the analysis, especially in light of the new information, in order to develop guidelines to improve design reliability and better operating controls to reduce the probability of failure. Quantified reliability assessment based on fundamental physical behavior of components and their relationship with other components has demonstrated itself to be a superior technique to conventional reliability approaches based on utilizing failure rates derived from similar equipment or simply expert judgment.

The Challenges of Credible Thermal Protection System Reliability Quantification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Green, Lawrence L.

2013-01-01

The paper discusses several of the challenges associated with developing a credible reliability estimate for a human-rated crew capsule thermal protection system. The process of developing such a credible estimate is subject to the quantification, modeling and propagation of numerous uncertainties within a probabilistic analysis. The development of specific investment recommendations, to improve the reliability prediction, among various potential testing and programmatic options is then accomplished through Bayesian analysis.

The Persian Version of the "Life Satisfaction Scale": Construct Validity and Test-Re-Test Reliability among Iranian Older Adults.

PubMed

Moghadam, Manije; Salavati, Mahyar; Sahaf, Robab; Rassouli, Maryam; Moghadam, Mojgan; Kamrani, Ahmad Ali Akbari

2018-03-01

After forward-backward translation, the LSS was administered to 334 Persian speaking, cognitively healthy elderly aged 60 years and over recruited through convenience sampling. To analyze the validity of the model's constructs and the relationships between the constructs, a confirmatory factor analysis followed by PLS analysis was performed. The Construct validity was further investigated by calculating the correlations between the LSS and the "Short Form Health Survey" (SF-36) subscales measuring similar and dissimilar constructs. The LSS was re-administered to 50 participants a month later to assess the reliability. For the eight-factor model of the life satisfaction construct, adequate goodness of fit between the hypothesized model and the model derived from the sample data was attained (positive and statistically significant beta coefficients, good R-squares and acceptable GoF). Construct validity was supported by convergent and discriminant validity, and correlations between the LSS and SF-36 subscales. Minimum Intraclass Correlation Coefficient level of 0.60 was exceeded by all subscales. Minimum level of reliability indices (Cronbach's α, composite reliability and indicator reliability) was exceeded by all subscales. The Persian-version of the Life Satisfaction Scale is a reliable and valid instrument, with psychometric properties which are consistent with the original version.

Software development predictors, error analysis, reliability models and software metric analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Basili, Victor

1983-01-01

The use of dynamic characteristics as predictors for software development was studied. It was found that there are some significant factors that could be useful as predictors. From a study on software errors and complexity, it was shown that meaningful results can be obtained which allow insight into software traits and the environment in which it is developed. Reliability models were studied. The research included the field of program testing because the validity of some reliability models depends on the answers to some unanswered questions about testing. In studying software metrics, data collected from seven software engineering laboratory (FORTRAN) projects were examined and three effort reporting accuracy checks were applied to demonstrate the need to validate a data base. Results are discussed.

The application of emulation techniques in the analysis of highly reliable, guidance and control computer systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Migneault, Gerard E.

1987-01-01

Emulation techniques can be a solution to a difficulty that arises in the analysis of the reliability of guidance and control computer systems for future commercial aircraft. Described here is the difficulty, the lack of credibility of reliability estimates obtained by analytical modeling techniques. The difficulty is an unavoidable consequence of the following: (1) a reliability requirement so demanding as to make system evaluation by use testing infeasible; (2) a complex system design technique, fault tolerance; (3) system reliability dominated by errors due to flaws in the system definition; and (4) elaborate analytical modeling techniques whose precision outputs are quite sensitive to errors of approximation in their input data. Use of emulation techniques for pseudo-testing systems to evaluate bounds on the parameter values needed for the analytical techniques is then discussed. Finally several examples of the application of emulation techniques are described.

Reliability Analysis of Sealing Structure of Electromechanical System Based on Kriging Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, F.; Wang, Y. M.; Chen, R. W.; Deng, W. W.; Gao, Y.

2018-05-01

The sealing performance of aircraft electromechanical system has a great influence on flight safety, and the reliability of its typical seal structure is analyzed by researcher. In this paper, we regard reciprocating seal structure as a research object to study structural reliability. Having been based on the finite element numerical simulation method, the contact stress between the rubber sealing ring and the cylinder wall is calculated, and the relationship between the contact stress and the pressure of the hydraulic medium is built, and the friction force on different working conditions are compared. Through the co-simulation, the adaptive Kriging model obtained by EFF learning mechanism is used to describe the failure probability of the seal ring, so as to evaluate the reliability of the sealing structure. This article proposes a new idea of numerical evaluation for the reliability analysis of sealing structure, and also provides a theoretical basis for the optimal design of sealing structure.

Interpreting Variance Components as Evidence for Reliability and Validity.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kane, Michael T.

The reliability and validity of measurement is analyzed by a sampling model based on generalizability theory. A model for the relationship between a measurement procedure and an attribute is developed from an analysis of how measurements are used and interpreted in science. The model provides a basis for analyzing the concept of an error of…

76 FR 28819 - NUREG/CR-XXXX, Development of Quantitative Software Reliability Models for Digital Protection...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-05-18

... NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION [NRC-2011-0109] NUREG/CR-XXXX, Development of Quantitative Software..., ``Development of Quantitative Software Reliability Models for Digital Protection Systems of Nuclear Power Plants... of Risk Analysis, Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission...

Characterization of System Level Single Event Upset (SEU) Responses using SEU Data, Classical Reliability Models, and Space Environment Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Berg, Melanie; Label, Kenneth; Campola, Michael; Xapsos, Michael

2017-01-01

We propose a method for the application of single event upset (SEU) data towards the analysis of complex systems using transformed reliability models (from the time domain to the particle fluence domain) and space environment data.

Software reliability studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Larry W.

1989-01-01

The longterm goal of this research is to identify or create a model for use in analyzing the reliability of flight control software. The immediate tasks addressed are the creation of data useful to the study of software reliability and production of results pertinent to software reliability through the analysis of existing reliability models and data. The completed data creation portion of this research consists of a Generic Checkout System (GCS) design document created in cooperation with NASA and Research Triangle Institute (RTI) experimenters. This will lead to design and code reviews with the resulting product being one of the versions used in the Terminal Descent Experiment being conducted by the Systems Validations Methods Branch (SVMB) of NASA/Langley. An appended paper details an investigation of the Jelinski-Moranda and Geometric models for software reliability. The models were given data from a process that they have correctly simulated and asked to make predictions about the reliability of that process. It was found that either model will usually fail to make good predictions. These problems were attributed to randomness in the data and replication of data was recommended.

Analysis of the psychometric properties of the American Orthopaedic Foot and Ankle Society Score (AOFAS) in rheumatoid arthritis patients: application of the Rasch model.

PubMed

Conceição, Cristiano Sena da; Neto, Mansueto Gomes; Neto, Anolino Costa; Mendes, Selena M D; Baptista, Abrahão Fontes; Sá, Kátia Nunes

2016-01-01

To tested the reliability and validity of Aofas in a sample of rheumatoid arthritis patients. The scale was applicable to rheumatoid arthritis patients, twice by the interviewer 1 and once by the interviewer 2. The Aofas was subjected to test-retest reliability analysis (with 20 Rheumatoid arthritis subjects). The psychometric properties were investigated using Rasch analysis on 33 Rheumatoid arthritis patients. Intra-Class Correlation Coefficient (ICC) were (0.90

A fuzzy set approach for reliability calculation of valve controlling electric actuators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karmachev, D. P.; Yefremov, A. A.; Luneva, E. E.

2017-02-01

The oil and gas equipment and electric actuators in particular frequently perform in various operational modes and under dynamic environmental conditions. These factors affect equipment reliability measures in a vague, uncertain way. To eliminate the ambiguity, reliability model parameters could be defined as fuzzy numbers. We suggest a technique that allows constructing fundamental fuzzy-valued performance reliability measures based on an analysis of electric actuators failure data in accordance with the amount of work, completed before the failure, instead of failure time. Also, this paper provides a computation example of fuzzy-valued reliability and hazard rate functions, assuming Kumaraswamy complementary Weibull geometric distribution as a lifetime (reliability) model for electric actuators.

Digital Avionics Information System (DAIS): Life Cycle Cost Impact Modeling System Reliability, Maintainability, and Cost Model (RMCM)--Description. Users Guide. Final Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Goclowski, John C.; And Others

The Reliability, Maintainability, and Cost Model (RMCM) described in this report is an interactive mathematical model with a built-in sensitivity analysis capability. It is a major component of the Life Cycle Cost Impact Model (LCCIM), which was developed as part of the DAIS advanced development program to be used to assess the potential impacts…

Emulation applied to reliability analysis of reconfigurable, highly reliable, fault-tolerant computing systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Migneault, G. E.

1979-01-01

Emulation techniques applied to the analysis of the reliability of highly reliable computer systems for future commercial aircraft are described. The lack of credible precision in reliability estimates obtained by analytical modeling techniques is first established. The difficulty is shown to be an unavoidable consequence of: (1) a high reliability requirement so demanding as to make system evaluation by use testing infeasible; (2) a complex system design technique, fault tolerance; (3) system reliability dominated by errors due to flaws in the system definition; and (4) elaborate analytical modeling techniques whose precision outputs are quite sensitive to errors of approximation in their input data. Next, the technique of emulation is described, indicating how its input is a simple description of the logical structure of a system and its output is the consequent behavior. Use of emulation techniques is discussed for pseudo-testing systems to evaluate bounds on the parameter values needed for the analytical techniques. Finally an illustrative example is presented to demonstrate from actual use the promise of the proposed application of emulation.

Reliability analysis using an exponential power model with bathtub-shaped failure rate function: a Bayes study.

PubMed

Shehla, Romana; Khan, Athar Ali

2016-01-01

Models with bathtub-shaped hazard function have been widely accepted in the field of reliability and medicine and are particularly useful in reliability related decision making and cost analysis. In this paper, the exponential power model capable of assuming increasing as well as bathtub-shape, is studied. This article makes a Bayesian study of the same model and simultaneously shows how posterior simulations based on Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms can be straightforward and routine in R. The study is carried out for complete as well as censored data, under the assumption of weakly-informative priors for the parameters. In addition to this, inference interest focuses on the posterior distribution of non-linear functions of the parameters. Also, the model has been extended to include continuous explanatory variables and R-codes are well illustrated. Two real data sets are considered for illustrative purposes.

The Verification-based Analysis of Reliable Multicast Protocol

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wu, Yunqing

1996-01-01

Reliable Multicast Protocol (RMP) is a communication protocol that provides an atomic, totally ordered, reliable multicast service on top of unreliable IP Multicasting. In this paper, we develop formal models for R.W using existing automatic verification systems, and perform verification-based analysis on the formal RMP specifications. We also use the formal models of RW specifications to generate a test suite for conformance testing of the RMP implementation. Throughout the process of RMP development, we follow an iterative, interactive approach that emphasizes concurrent and parallel progress between the implementation and verification processes. Through this approach, we incorporate formal techniques into our development process, promote a common understanding for the protocol, increase the reliability of our software, and maintain high fidelity between the specifications of RMP and its implementation.

Reliability and Validity of the Sexual Pressure Scale for Women-Revised

PubMed Central

Jones, Rachel; Gulick, Elsie

2008-01-01

Sexual pressure among young urban women represents adherence to gender stereotypical expectations to engage in sex. Revision of the original 5-factor Sexual Pressure Scale was undertaken in two studies to improve reliabilities in two of the five factors. In Study 1 the reliability of the Sexual Pressure Scale for Women-Revised (SPSW-R) was tested, and principal components analysis was performed in a sample of 325 young, urban women. A parsimonious 18-item, 4-factor model explained 61% of the variance. In Study 2 the theory underlying sexual pressure was supported by confirmatory factor analysis using structural equation modeling in a sample of 181 women. Reliabilities of the SPSW-R total and subscales were very satisfactory, suggesting it may be used in intervention research. PMID:18666222

Towards early software reliability prediction for computer forensic tools (case study).

PubMed

Abu Talib, Manar

2016-01-01

Versatility, flexibility and robustness are essential requirements for software forensic tools. Researchers and practitioners need to put more effort into assessing this type of tool. A Markov model is a robust means for analyzing and anticipating the functioning of an advanced component based system. It is used, for instance, to analyze the reliability of the state machines of real time reactive systems. This research extends the architecture-based software reliability prediction model for computer forensic tools, which is based on Markov chains and COSMIC-FFP. Basically, every part of the computer forensic tool is linked to a discrete time Markov chain. If this can be done, then a probabilistic analysis by Markov chains can be performed to analyze the reliability of the components and of the whole tool. The purposes of the proposed reliability assessment method are to evaluate the tool's reliability in the early phases of its development, to improve the reliability assessment process for large computer forensic tools over time, and to compare alternative tool designs. The reliability analysis can assist designers in choosing the most reliable topology for the components, which can maximize the reliability of the tool and meet the expected reliability level specified by the end-user. The approach of assessing component-based tool reliability in the COSMIC-FFP context is illustrated with the Forensic Toolkit Imager case study.

An overview of the mathematical and statistical analysis component of RICIS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hallum, Cecil R.

1987-01-01

Mathematical and statistical analysis components of RICIS (Research Institute for Computing and Information Systems) can be used in the following problem areas: (1) quantification and measurement of software reliability; (2) assessment of changes in software reliability over time (reliability growth); (3) analysis of software-failure data; and (4) decision logic for whether to continue or stop testing software. Other areas of interest to NASA/JSC where mathematical and statistical analysis can be successfully employed include: math modeling of physical systems, simulation, statistical data reduction, evaluation methods, optimization, algorithm development, and mathematical methods in signal processing.

Structural reliability assessment of the Oman India Pipeline

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Al-Sharif, A.M.; Preston, R.

1996-12-31

Reliability techniques are increasingly finding application in design. The special design conditions for the deep water sections of the Oman India Pipeline dictate their use since the experience basis for application of standard deterministic techniques is inadequate. The paper discusses the reliability analysis as applied to the Oman India Pipeline, including selection of a collapse model, characterization of the variability in the parameters that affect pipe resistance to collapse, and implementation of first and second order reliability analyses to assess the probability of pipe failure. The reliability analysis results are used as the basis for establishing the pipe wall thicknessmore » requirements for the pipeline.« less

Analyzing Test-As-You-Fly Single Event Upset (SEU) Responses using SEU Data, Classical Reliability Models, and Space Environment Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Berg, Melanie; Label, Kenneth; Campola, Michael; Xapsos, Michael

2017-01-01

We propose a method for the application of single event upset (SEU) data towards the analysis of complex systems using transformed reliability models (from the time domain to the particle fluence domain) and space environment data.

Characterization of System on a Chip (SoC) Single Event Upset (SEU) Responses Using SEU Data, Classical Reliability Models, and Space Environment Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Berg, Melanie; Label, Kenneth; Campola, Michael; Xapsos, Michael

2017-01-01

We propose a method for the application of single event upset (SEU) data towards the analysis of complex systems using transformed reliability models (from the time domain to the particle fluence domain) and space environment data.

Reliability analysis of the solar array based on Fault Tree Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jianing, Wu; Shaoze, Yan

2011-07-01

The solar array is an important device used in the spacecraft, which influences the quality of in-orbit operation of the spacecraft and even the launches. This paper analyzes the reliability of the mechanical system and certifies the most vital subsystem of the solar array. The fault tree analysis (FTA) model is established according to the operating process of the mechanical system based on DFH-3 satellite; the logical expression of the top event is obtained by Boolean algebra and the reliability of the solar array is calculated. The conclusion shows that the hinges are the most vital links between the solar arrays. By analyzing the structure importance(SI) of the hinge's FTA model, some fatal causes, including faults of the seal, insufficient torque of the locking spring, temperature in space, and friction force, can be identified. Damage is the initial stage of the fault, so limiting damage is significant to prevent faults. Furthermore, recommendations for improving reliability associated with damage limitation are discussed, which can be used for the redesigning of the solar array and the reliability growth planning.

Structural reliability assessment capability in NESSUS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Millwater, H.; Wu, Y.-T.

1992-01-01

The principal capabilities of NESSUS (Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress), an advanced computer code developed for probabilistic structural response analysis, are reviewed, and its structural reliability assessed. The code combines flexible structural modeling tools with advanced probabilistic algorithms in order to compute probabilistic structural response and resistance, component reliability and risk, and system reliability and risk. An illustrative numerical example is presented.

Structural reliability assessment capability in NESSUS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Millwater, H.; Wu, Y.-T.

1992-07-01

The principal capabilities of NESSUS (Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress), an advanced computer code developed for probabilistic structural response analysis, are reviewed, and its structural reliability assessed. The code combines flexible structural modeling tools with advanced probabilistic algorithms in order to compute probabilistic structural response and resistance, component reliability and risk, and system reliability and risk. An illustrative numerical example is presented.

Technique for Early Reliability Prediction of Software Components Using Behaviour Models

PubMed Central

Ali, Awad; N. A. Jawawi, Dayang; Adham Isa, Mohd; Imran Babar, Muhammad

2016-01-01

Behaviour models are the most commonly used input for predicting the reliability of a software system at the early design stage. A component behaviour model reveals the structure and behaviour of the component during the execution of system-level functionalities. There are various challenges related to component reliability prediction at the early design stage based on behaviour models. For example, most of the current reliability techniques do not provide fine-grained sequential behaviour models of individual components and fail to consider the loop entry and exit points in the reliability computation. Moreover, some of the current techniques do not tackle the problem of operational data unavailability and the lack of analysis results that can be valuable for software architects at the early design stage. This paper proposes a reliability prediction technique that, pragmatically, synthesizes system behaviour in the form of a state machine, given a set of scenarios and corresponding constraints as input. The state machine is utilized as a base for generating the component-relevant operational data. The state machine is also used as a source for identifying the nodes and edges of a component probabilistic dependency graph (CPDG). Based on the CPDG, a stack-based algorithm is used to compute the reliability. The proposed technique is evaluated by a comparison with existing techniques and the application of sensitivity analysis to a robotic wheelchair system as a case study. The results indicate that the proposed technique is more relevant at the early design stage compared to existing works, and can provide a more realistic and meaningful prediction. PMID:27668748

Life and reliability modeling of bevel gear reductions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Savage, M.; Brikmanis, C. K.; Lewicki, D. G.; Coy, J. J.

1985-01-01

A reliability model is presented for bevel gear reductions with either a single input pinion or dual input pinions of equal size. The dual pinions may or may not have the same power applied for the analysis. The gears may be straddle mounted or supported in a bearing quill. The reliability model is based on the Weibull distribution. The reduction's basic dynamic capacity is defined as the output torque which may be applied for one million output rotations of the bevel gear with a 90 percent probability of reduction survival.

Neural Networks Based Approach to Enhance Space Hardware Reliability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zebulum, Ricardo S.; Thakoor, Anilkumar; Lu, Thomas; Franco, Lauro; Lin, Tsung Han; McClure, S. S.

2011-01-01

This paper demonstrates the use of Neural Networks as a device modeling tool to increase the reliability analysis accuracy of circuits targeted for space applications. The paper tackles a number of case studies of relevance to the design of Flight hardware. The results show that the proposed technique generates more accurate models than the ones regularly used to model circuits.

Reliability modelling and analysis of a multi-state element based on a dynamic Bayesian network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Zhiqiang; Xu, Tingxue; Gu, Junyuan; Dong, Qi; Fu, Linyu

2018-04-01

This paper presents a quantitative reliability modelling and analysis method for multi-state elements based on a combination of the Markov process and a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN), taking perfect repair, imperfect repair and condition-based maintenance (CBM) into consideration. The Markov models of elements without repair and under CBM are established, and an absorbing set is introduced to determine the reliability of the repairable element. According to the state-transition relations between the states determined by the Markov process, a DBN model is built. In addition, its parameters for series and parallel systems, namely, conditional probability tables, can be calculated by referring to the conditional degradation probabilities. Finally, the power of a control unit in a failure model is used as an example. A dynamic fault tree (DFT) is translated into a Bayesian network model, and subsequently extended to a DBN. The results show the state probabilities of an element and the system without repair, with perfect and imperfect repair, and under CBM, with an absorbing set plotted by differential equations and verified. Through referring forward, the reliability value of the control unit is determined in different kinds of modes. Finally, weak nodes are noted in the control unit.

Agent autonomy approach to probabilistic physics-of-failure modeling of complex dynamic systems with interacting failure mechanisms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gromek, Katherine Emily

A novel computational and inference framework of the physics-of-failure (PoF) reliability modeling for complex dynamic systems has been established in this research. The PoF-based reliability models are used to perform a real time simulation of system failure processes, so that the system level reliability modeling would constitute inferences from checking the status of component level reliability at any given time. The "agent autonomy" concept is applied as a solution method for the system-level probabilistic PoF-based (i.e. PPoF-based) modeling. This concept originated from artificial intelligence (AI) as a leading intelligent computational inference in modeling of multi agents systems (MAS). The concept of agent autonomy in the context of reliability modeling was first proposed by M. Azarkhail [1], where a fundamentally new idea of system representation by autonomous intelligent agents for the purpose of reliability modeling was introduced. Contribution of the current work lies in the further development of the agent anatomy concept, particularly the refined agent classification within the scope of the PoF-based system reliability modeling, new approaches to the learning and the autonomy properties of the intelligent agents, and modeling interacting failure mechanisms within the dynamic engineering system. The autonomous property of intelligent agents is defined as agent's ability to self-activate, deactivate or completely redefine their role in the analysis. This property of agents and the ability to model interacting failure mechanisms of the system elements makes the agent autonomy fundamentally different from all existing methods of probabilistic PoF-based reliability modeling. 1. Azarkhail, M., "Agent Autonomy Approach to Physics-Based Reliability Modeling of Structures and Mechanical Systems", PhD thesis, University of Maryland, College Park, 2007.

A methodology for producing reliable software, volume 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stucki, L. G.; Moranda, P. B.; Foshee, G.; Kirchoff, M.; Omre, R.

1976-01-01

An investigation into the areas having an impact on producing reliable software including automated verification tools, software modeling, testing techniques, structured programming, and management techniques is presented. This final report contains the results of this investigation, analysis of each technique, and the definition of a methodology for producing reliable software.

Self-esteem among nursing assistants: reliability and validity of the Rosenberg Self-Esteem Scale.

PubMed

McMullen, Tara; Resnick, Barbara

2013-01-01

To establish the reliability and validity of the Rosenberg Self-Esteem Scale (RSES) when used with nursing assistants (NAs). Testing the RSES used baseline data from a randomized controlled trial testing the Res-Care Intervention. Female NAs were recruited from nursing homes (n = 508). Validity testing for the positive and negative subscales of the RSES was based on confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) using structural equation modeling and Rasch analysis. Estimates of reliability were based on Rasch analysis and the person separation index. Evidence supports the reliability and validity of the RSES in NAs although we recommend minor revisions to the measure for subsequent use. Establishing reliable and valid measures of self-esteem in NAs will facilitate testing of interventions to strengthen workplace self-esteem, job satisfaction, and retention.

Developing safety performance functions incorporating reliability-based risk measures.

PubMed

Ibrahim, Shewkar El-Bassiouni; Sayed, Tarek

2011-11-01

Current geometric design guides provide deterministic standards where the safety margin of the design output is generally unknown and there is little knowledge of the safety implications of deviating from these standards. Several studies have advocated probabilistic geometric design where reliability analysis can be used to account for the uncertainty in the design parameters and to provide a risk measure of the implication of deviation from design standards. However, there is currently no link between measures of design reliability and the quantification of safety using collision frequency. The analysis presented in this paper attempts to bridge this gap by incorporating a reliability-based quantitative risk measure such as the probability of non-compliance (P(nc)) in safety performance functions (SPFs). Establishing this link will allow admitting reliability-based design into traditional benefit-cost analysis and should lead to a wider application of the reliability technique in road design. The present application is concerned with the design of horizontal curves, where the limit state function is defined in terms of the available (supply) and stopping (demand) sight distances. A comprehensive collision and geometric design database of two-lane rural highways is used to investigate the effect of the probability of non-compliance on safety. The reliability analysis was carried out using the First Order Reliability Method (FORM). Two Negative Binomial (NB) SPFs were developed to compare models with and without the reliability-based risk measures. It was found that models incorporating the P(nc) provided a better fit to the data set than the traditional (without risk) NB SPFs for total, injury and fatality (I+F) and property damage only (PDO) collisions. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Rapid Modeling and Analysis Tools: Evolution, Status, Needs and Directions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Knight, Norman F., Jr.; Stone, Thomas J.; Ransom, Jonathan B. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

Advanced aerospace systems are becoming increasingly more complex, and customers are demanding lower cost, higher performance, and high reliability. Increased demands are placed on the design engineers to collaborate and integrate design needs and objectives early in the design process to minimize risks that may occur later in the design development stage. High performance systems require better understanding of system sensitivities much earlier in the design process to meet these goals. The knowledge, skills, intuition, and experience of an individual design engineer will need to be extended significantly for the next generation of aerospace system designs. Then a collaborative effort involving the designer, rapid and reliable analysis tools and virtual experts will result in advanced aerospace systems that are safe, reliable, and efficient. This paper discusses the evolution, status, needs and directions for rapid modeling and analysis tools for structural analysis. First, the evolution of computerized design and analysis tools is briefly described. Next, the status of representative design and analysis tools is described along with a brief statement on their functionality. Then technology advancements to achieve rapid modeling and analysis are identified. Finally, potential future directions including possible prototype configurations are proposed.

The Use of Object-Oriented Analysis Methods in Surety Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Craft, Richard L.; Funkhouser, Donald R.; Wyss, Gregory D.

1999-05-01

Object-oriented analysis methods have been used in the computer science arena for a number of years to model the behavior of computer-based systems. This report documents how such methods can be applied to surety analysis. By embodying the causality and behavior of a system in a common object-oriented analysis model, surety analysts can make the assumptions that underlie their models explicit and thus better communicate with system designers. Furthermore, given minor extensions to traditional object-oriented analysis methods, it is possible to automatically derive a wide variety of traditional risk and reliability analysis methods from a single common object model. Automaticmore » model extraction helps ensure consistency among analyses and enables the surety analyst to examine a system from a wider variety of viewpoints in a shorter period of time. Thus it provides a deeper understanding of a system's behaviors and surety requirements. This report documents the underlying philosophy behind the common object model representation, the methods by which such common object models can be constructed, and the rules required to interrogate the common object model for derivation of traditional risk and reliability analysis models. The methodology is demonstrated in an extensive example problem.« less

Markov modeling and reliability analysis of urea synthesis system of a fertilizer plant

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aggarwal, Anil Kr.; Kumar, Sanjeev; Singh, Vikram; Garg, Tarun Kr.

2015-12-01

This paper deals with the Markov modeling and reliability analysis of urea synthesis system of a fertilizer plant. This system was modeled using Markov birth-death process with the assumption that the failure and repair rates of each subsystem follow exponential distribution. The first-order Chapman-Kolmogorov differential equations are developed with the use of mnemonic rule and these equations are solved with Runga-Kutta fourth-order method. The long-run availability, reliability and mean time between failures are computed for various choices of failure and repair rates of subsystems of the system. The findings of the paper are discussed with the plant personnel to adopt and practice suitable maintenance policies/strategies to enhance the performance of the urea synthesis system of the fertilizer plant.

Assessment of family functioning in Caucasian and Hispanic Americans: reliability, validity, and factor structure of the Family Assessment Device.

PubMed

Aarons, Gregory A; McDonald, Elizabeth J; Connelly, Cynthia D; Newton, Rae R

2007-12-01

The purpose of this study was to examine the factor structure, reliability, and validity of the Family Assessment Device (FAD) among a national sample of Caucasian and Hispanic American families receiving public sector mental health services. A confirmatory factor analysis conducted to test model fit yielded equivocal findings. With few exceptions, indices of model fit, reliability, and validity were poorer for Hispanic Americans compared with Caucasian Americans. Contrary to our expectation, an exploratory factor analysis did not result in a better fitting model of family functioning. Without stronger evidence supporting a reformulation of the FAD, we recommend against such a course of action. Findings highlight the need for additional research on the role of culture in measurement of family functioning.

Subject-level reliability analysis of fast fMRI with application to epilepsy.

PubMed

Hao, Yongfu; Khoo, Hui Ming; von Ellenrieder, Nicolas; Gotman, Jean

2017-07-01

Recent studies have applied the new magnetic resonance encephalography (MREG) sequence to the study of interictal epileptic discharges (IEDs) in the electroencephalogram (EEG) of epileptic patients. However, there are no criteria to quantitatively evaluate different processing methods, to properly use the new sequence. We evaluated different processing steps of this new sequence under the common generalized linear model (GLM) framework by assessing the reliability of results. A bootstrap sampling technique was first used to generate multiple replicated data sets; a GLM with different processing steps was then applied to obtain activation maps, and the reliability of these maps was assessed. We applied our analysis in an event-related GLM related to IEDs. A higher reliability was achieved by using a GLM with head motion confound regressor with 24 components rather than the usual 6, with an autoregressive model of order 5 and with a canonical hemodynamic response function (HRF) rather than variable latency or patient-specific HRFs. Comparison of activation with IED field also favored the canonical HRF, consistent with the reliability analysis. The reliability analysis helps to optimize the processing methods for this fast fMRI sequence, in a context in which we do not know the ground truth of activation areas. Magn Reson Med 78:370-382, 2017. © 2016 International Society for Magnetic Resonance in Medicine. © 2016 International Society for Magnetic Resonance in Medicine.

A Bayesian modification to the Jelinski-Moranda software reliability growth model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Littlewood, B.; Sofer, A.

1983-01-01

The Jelinski-Moranda (JM) model for software reliability was examined. It is suggested that a major reason for the poor results given by this model is the poor performance of the maximum likelihood method (ML) of parameter estimation. A reparameterization and Bayesian analysis, involving a slight modelling change, are proposed. It is shown that this new Bayesian-Jelinski-Moranda model (BJM) is mathematically quite tractable, and several metrics of interest to practitioners are obtained. The BJM and JM models are compared by using several sets of real software failure data collected and in all cases the BJM model gives superior reliability predictions. A change in the assumption which underlay both models to present the debugging process more accurately is discussed.

Statistical model selection for better prediction and discovering science mechanisms that affect reliability

DOE PAGES

Anderson-Cook, Christine M.; Morzinski, Jerome; Blecker, Kenneth D.

2015-08-19

Understanding the impact of production, environmental exposure and age characteristics on the reliability of a population is frequently based on underlying science and empirical assessment. When there is incomplete science to prescribe which inputs should be included in a model of reliability to predict future trends, statistical model/variable selection techniques can be leveraged on a stockpile or population of units to improve reliability predictions as well as suggest new mechanisms affecting reliability to explore. We describe a five-step process for exploring relationships between available summaries of age, usage and environmental exposure and reliability. The process involves first identifying potential candidatemore » inputs, then second organizing data for the analysis. Third, a variety of models with different combinations of the inputs are estimated, and fourth, flexible metrics are used to compare them. As a result, plots of the predicted relationships are examined to distill leading model contenders into a prioritized list for subject matter experts to understand and compare. The complexity of the model, quality of prediction and cost of future data collection are all factors to be considered by the subject matter experts when selecting a final model.« less

An Evidential Reasoning-Based CREAM to Human Reliability Analysis in Maritime Accident Process.

PubMed

Wu, Bing; Yan, Xinping; Wang, Yang; Soares, C Guedes

2017-10-01

This article proposes a modified cognitive reliability and error analysis method (CREAM) for estimating the human error probability in the maritime accident process on the basis of an evidential reasoning approach. This modified CREAM is developed to precisely quantify the linguistic variables of the common performance conditions and to overcome the problem of ignoring the uncertainty caused by incomplete information in the existing CREAM models. Moreover, this article views maritime accident development from the sequential perspective, where a scenario- and barrier-based framework is proposed to describe the maritime accident process. This evidential reasoning-based CREAM approach together with the proposed accident development framework are applied to human reliability analysis of a ship capsizing accident. It will facilitate subjective human reliability analysis in different engineering systems where uncertainty exists in practice. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Data mining-based coefficient of influence factors optimization of test paper reliability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Peiyao; Jiang, Huiping; Wei, Jieyao

2018-05-01

Test is a significant part of the teaching process. It demonstrates the final outcome of school teaching through teachers' teaching level and students' scores. The analysis of test paper is a complex operation that has the characteristics of non-linear relation in the length of the paper, time duration and the degree of difficulty. It is therefore difficult to optimize the coefficient of influence factors under different conditions in order to get text papers with clearly higher reliability with general methods [1]. With data mining techniques like Support Vector Regression (SVR) and Genetic Algorithm (GA), we can model the test paper analysis and optimize the coefficient of impact factors for higher reliability. It's easy to find that the combination of SVR and GA can get an effective advance in reliability from the test results. The optimal coefficient of influence factors optimization has a practicability in actual application, and the whole optimizing operation can offer model basis for test paper analysis.

Psychometric evaluation of a unified Portuguese-language version of the Body Shape Questionnaire in female university students.

PubMed

Silva, Wanderson Roberto; Costa, David; Pimenta, Filipa; Maroco, João; Campos, Juliana Alvares Duarte Bonini

2016-07-21

The objectives of this study were to develop a unified Portuguese-language version, for use in Brazil and Portugal, of the Body Shape Questionnaire (BSQ) and to estimate its validity, reliability, and internal consistency in Brazilian and Portuguese female university students. Confirmatory factor analysis was performed using both original (34-item) and shortened (8-item) versions. The model's fit was assessed with χ²/df, CFI, NFI, and RMSEA. Concurrent and convergent validity were assessed. Reliability was estimated through internal consistency and composite reliability (α). Transnational invariance of the BSQ was tested using multi-group analysis. The original 32-item model was refined to present a better fit and adequate validity and reliability. The shortened model was stable in both independent samples and in transnational samples (Brazil and Portugal). The use of this unified version is recommended for the assessment of body shape concerns in both Brazilian and Portuguese college students.

Tackling reliability and construct validity: the systematic development of a qualitative protocol for skill and incident analysis.

PubMed

Savage, Trevor Nicholas; McIntosh, Andrew Stuart

2017-03-01

It is important to understand factors contributing to and directly causing sports injuries to improve the effectiveness and safety of sports skills. The characteristics of injury events must be evaluated and described meaningfully and reliably. However, many complex skills cannot be effectively investigated quantitatively because of ethical, technological and validity considerations. Increasingly, qualitative methods are being used to investigate human movement for research purposes, but there are concerns about reliability and measurement bias of such methods. Using the tackle in Rugby union as an example, we outline a systematic approach for developing a skill analysis protocol with a focus on improving objectivity, validity and reliability. Characteristics for analysis were selected using qualitative analysis and biomechanical theoretical models and epidemiological and coaching literature. An expert panel comprising subject matter experts provided feedback and the inter-rater reliability of the protocol was assessed using ten trained raters. The inter-rater reliability results were reviewed by the expert panel and the protocol was revised and assessed in a second inter-rater reliability study. Mean agreement in the second study improved and was comparable (52-90% agreement and ICC between 0.6 and 0.9) with other studies that have reported inter-rater reliability of qualitative analysis of human movement.

Business Cases for Microgrids: Modeling Interactions of Technology Choice, Reliability, Cost, and Benefit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hanna, Ryan

Distributed energy resources (DERs), and increasingly microgrids, are becoming an integral part of modern distribution systems. Interest in microgrids--which are insular and autonomous power networks embedded within the bulk grid--stems largely from the vast array of flexibilities and benefits they can offer stakeholders. Managed well, they can improve grid reliability and resiliency, increase end-use energy efficiency by coupling electric and thermal loads, reduce transmission losses by generating power locally, and may reduce system-wide emissions, among many others. Whether these public benefits are realized, however, depends on whether private firms see a "business case", or private value, in investing. To this end, firms need models that evaluate costs, benefits, risks, and assumptions that underlie decisions to invest. The objectives of this dissertation are to assess the business case for microgrids that provide what industry analysts forecast as two primary drivers of market growth--that of providing energy services (similar to an electric utility) as well as reliability service to customers within. Prototypical first adopters are modeled--using an existing model to analyze energy services and a new model that couples that analysis with one of reliability--to explore interactions between technology choice, reliability, costs, and benefits. The new model has a bi-level hierarchy; it uses heuristic optimization to select and size DERs and analytical optimization to schedule them. It further embeds Monte Carlo simulation to evaluate reliability as well as regression models for customer damage functions to monetize reliability. It provides least-cost microgrid configurations for utility customers who seek to reduce interruption and operating costs. Lastly, the model is used to explore the impact of such adoption on system-wide greenhouse gas emissions in California. Results indicate that there are, at present, co-benefits for emissions reductions when customers adopt and operate microgrids for private benefit, though future analysis is needed as the bulk grid continues to transition toward a less carbon intensive system.

Comprehensive Deployment Method for Technical Characteristics Base on Multi-failure Modes Correlation Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, W.; Gao, J. M.; Wang, R. X.; Chen, K.; Jiang, Y.

2017-12-01

This paper put forward a new method of technical characteristics deployment based on Reliability Function Deployment (RFD) by analysing the advantages and shortages of related research works on mechanical reliability design. The matrix decomposition structure of RFD was used to describe the correlative relation between failure mechanisms, soft failures and hard failures. By considering the correlation of multiple failure modes, the reliability loss of one failure mode to the whole part was defined, and a calculation and analysis model for reliability loss was presented. According to the reliability loss, the reliability index value of the whole part was allocated to each failure mode. On the basis of the deployment of reliability index value, the inverse reliability method was employed to acquire the values of technology characteristics. The feasibility and validity of proposed method were illustrated by a development case of machining centre’s transmission system.

Evaluation methodologies for an advanced information processing system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schabowsky, R. S., Jr.; Gai, E.; Walker, B. K.; Lala, J. H.; Motyka, P.

1984-01-01

The system concept and requirements for an Advanced Information Processing System (AIPS) are briefly described, but the emphasis of this paper is on the evaluation methodologies being developed and utilized in the AIPS program. The evaluation tasks include hardware reliability, maintainability and availability, software reliability, performance, and performability. Hardware RMA and software reliability are addressed with Markov modeling techniques. The performance analysis for AIPS is based on queueing theory. Performability is a measure of merit which combines system reliability and performance measures. The probability laws of the performance measures are obtained from the Markov reliability models. Scalar functions of this law such as the mean and variance provide measures of merit in the AIPS performability evaluations.

Review of Dynamic Modeling and Simulation of Large Scale Belt Conveyor System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Qing; Li, Hong

Belt conveyor is one of the most important devices to transport bulk-solid material for long distance. Dynamic analysis is the key to decide whether the design is rational in technique, safe and reliable in running, feasible in economy. It is very important to study dynamic properties, improve efficiency and productivity, guarantee conveyor safe, reliable and stable running. The dynamic researches and applications of large scale belt conveyor are discussed. The main research topics, the state-of-the-art of dynamic researches on belt conveyor are analyzed. The main future works focus on dynamic analysis, modeling and simulation of main components and whole system, nonlinear modeling, simulation and vibration analysis of large scale conveyor system.

SURE reliability analysis: Program and mathematics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Butler, Ricky W.; White, Allan L.

1988-01-01

The SURE program is a new reliability analysis tool for ultrareliable computer system architectures. The computational methods on which the program is based provide an efficient means for computing accurate upper and lower bounds for the death state probabilities of a large class of semi-Markov models. Once a semi-Markov model is described using a simple input language, the SURE program automatically computes the upper and lower bounds on the probability of system failure. A parameter of the model can be specified as a variable over a range of values directing the SURE program to perform a sensitivity analysis automatically. This feature, along with the speed of the program, makes it especially useful as a design tool.

APPLICATION OF TRAVEL TIME RELIABILITY FOR PERFORMANCE ORIENTED OPERATIONAL PLANNING OF EXPRESSWAYS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mehran, Babak; Nakamura, Hideki

Evaluation of impacts of congestion improvement scheme s on travel time reliability is very significant for road authorities since travel time reliability repr esents operational performance of expressway segments. In this paper, a methodology is presented to estimate travel tim e reliability prior to implementation of congestion relief schemes based on travel time variation modeling as a function of demand, capacity, weather conditions and road accident s. For subject expressway segmen ts, traffic conditions are modeled over a whole year considering demand and capacity as random variables. Patterns of demand and capacity are generated for each five minute interval by appl ying Monte-Carlo simulation technique, and accidents are randomly generated based on a model that links acci dent rate to traffic conditions. A whole year analysis is performed by comparing de mand and available capacity for each scenario and queue length is estimated through shockwave analysis for each time in terval. Travel times are estimated from refined speed-flow relationships developed for intercity expressways and buffer time index is estimated consequently as a measure of travel time reliability. For validation, estimated reliability indices are compared with measured values from empirical data, and it is shown that the proposed method is suitable for operational evaluation and planning purposes.

Reliability of Fault Tolerant Control Systems. Part 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wu, N. Eva

2001-01-01

This paper reports Part I of a two part effort, that is intended to delineate the relationship between reliability and fault tolerant control in a quantitative manner. Reliability analysis of fault-tolerant control systems is performed using Markov models. Reliability properties, peculiar to fault-tolerant control systems are emphasized. As a consequence, coverage of failures through redundancy management can be severely limited. It is shown that in the early life of a syi1ein composed of highly reliable subsystems, the reliability of the overall system is affine with respect to coverage, and inadequate coverage induces dominant single point failures. The utility of some existing software tools for assessing the reliability of fault tolerant control systems is also discussed. Coverage modeling is attempted in Part II in a way that captures its dependence on the control performance and on the diagnostic resolution.

Reliability analysis and initial requirements for FC systems and stacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Åström, K.; Fontell, E.; Virtanen, S.

In the year 2000 Wärtsilä Corporation started an R&D program to develop SOFC systems for CHP applications. The program aims to bring to the market highly efficient, clean and cost competitive fuel cell systems with rated power output in the range of 50-250 kW for distributed generation and marine applications. In the program Wärtsilä focuses on system integration and development. System reliability and availability are key issues determining the competitiveness of the SOFC technology. In Wärtsilä, methods have been implemented for analysing the system in respect to reliability and safety as well as for defining reliability requirements for system components. A fault tree representation is used as the basis for reliability prediction analysis. A dynamic simulation technique has been developed to allow for non-static properties in the fault tree logic modelling. Special emphasis has been placed on reliability analysis of the fuel cell stacks in the system. A method for assessing reliability and critical failure predictability requirements for fuel cell stacks in a system consisting of several stacks has been developed. The method is based on a qualitative model of the stack configuration where each stack can be in a functional, partially failed or critically failed state, each of the states having different failure rates and effects on the system behaviour. The main purpose of the method is to understand the effect of stack reliability, critical failure predictability and operating strategy on the system reliability and availability. An example configuration, consisting of 5 × 5 stacks (series of 5 sets of 5 parallel stacks) is analysed in respect to stack reliability requirements as a function of predictability of critical failures and Weibull shape factor of failure rate distributions.

Reliability analysis method of a solar array by using fault tree analysis and fuzzy reasoning Petri net

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Jianing; Yan, Shaoze; Xie, Liyang

2011-12-01

To address the impact of solar array anomalies, it is important to perform analysis of the solar array reliability. This paper establishes the fault tree analysis (FTA) and fuzzy reasoning Petri net (FRPN) models of a solar array mechanical system and analyzes reliability to find mechanisms of the solar array fault. The index final truth degree (FTD) and cosine matching function (CMF) are employed to resolve the issue of how to evaluate the importance and influence of different faults. So an improvement reliability analysis method is developed by means of the sorting of FTD and CMF. An example is analyzed using the proposed method. The analysis results show that harsh thermal environment and impact caused by particles in space are the most vital causes of the solar array fault. Furthermore, other fault modes and the corresponding improvement methods are discussed. The results reported in this paper could be useful for the spacecraft designers, particularly, in the process of redesigning the solar array and scheduling its reliability growth plan.

Improved Acquisition for System Sustainment: Multiobjective Tradeoff Analysis for Condition-Based Decision-Making

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-10-21

depend on the quality of allocating resources. This work uses a reliability model of system and environmental covariates incorporating information at...state space. Further, the use of condition variables allows for the direct modeling of maintenance impact with the assumption that a nominal value ... value ), the model in the application of aviation maintenance can provide a useful estimation of reliability at multiple levels. Adjusted survival

Reliability modelling and analysis of a multi-state element based on a dynamic Bayesian network

PubMed Central

Xu, Tingxue; Gu, Junyuan; Dong, Qi; Fu, Linyu

2018-01-01

This paper presents a quantitative reliability modelling and analysis method for multi-state elements based on a combination of the Markov process and a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN), taking perfect repair, imperfect repair and condition-based maintenance (CBM) into consideration. The Markov models of elements without repair and under CBM are established, and an absorbing set is introduced to determine the reliability of the repairable element. According to the state-transition relations between the states determined by the Markov process, a DBN model is built. In addition, its parameters for series and parallel systems, namely, conditional probability tables, can be calculated by referring to the conditional degradation probabilities. Finally, the power of a control unit in a failure model is used as an example. A dynamic fault tree (DFT) is translated into a Bayesian network model, and subsequently extended to a DBN. The results show the state probabilities of an element and the system without repair, with perfect and imperfect repair, and under CBM, with an absorbing set plotted by differential equations and verified. Through referring forward, the reliability value of the control unit is determined in different kinds of modes. Finally, weak nodes are noted in the control unit. PMID:29765629

A reliability study on brain activation during active and passive arm movements supported by an MRI-compatible robot.

PubMed

Estévez, Natalia; Yu, Ningbo; Brügger, Mike; Villiger, Michael; Hepp-Reymond, Marie-Claude; Riener, Robert; Kollias, Spyros

2014-11-01

In neurorehabilitation, longitudinal assessment of arm movement related brain function in patients with motor disability is challenging due to variability in task performance. MRI-compatible robots monitor and control task performance, yielding more reliable evaluation of brain function over time. The main goals of the present study were first to define the brain network activated while performing active and passive elbow movements with an MRI-compatible arm robot (MaRIA) in healthy subjects, and second to test the reproducibility of this activation over time. For the fMRI analysis two models were compared. In model 1 movement onset and duration were included, whereas in model 2 force and range of motion were added to the analysis. Reliability of brain activation was tested with several statistical approaches applied on individual and group activation maps and on summary statistics. The activated network included mainly the primary motor cortex, primary and secondary somatosensory cortex, superior and inferior parietal cortex, medial and lateral premotor regions, and subcortical structures. Reliability analyses revealed robust activation for active movements with both fMRI models and all the statistical methods used. Imposed passive movements also elicited mainly robust brain activation for individual and group activation maps, and reliability was improved by including additional force and range of motion using model 2. These findings demonstrate that the use of robotic devices, such as MaRIA, can be useful to reliably assess arm movement related brain activation in longitudinal studies and may contribute in studies evaluating therapies and brain plasticity following injury in the nervous system.

Bayesian Inference for NASA Probabilistic Risk and Reliability Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dezfuli, Homayoon; Kelly, Dana; Smith, Curtis; Vedros, Kurt; Galyean, William

2009-01-01

This document, Bayesian Inference for NASA Probabilistic Risk and Reliability Analysis, is intended to provide guidelines for the collection and evaluation of risk and reliability-related data. It is aimed at scientists and engineers familiar with risk and reliability methods and provides a hands-on approach to the investigation and application of a variety of risk and reliability data assessment methods, tools, and techniques. This document provides both: A broad perspective on data analysis collection and evaluation issues. A narrow focus on the methods to implement a comprehensive information repository. The topics addressed herein cover the fundamentals of how data and information are to be used in risk and reliability analysis models and their potential role in decision making. Understanding these topics is essential to attaining a risk informed decision making environment that is being sought by NASA requirements and procedures such as 8000.4 (Agency Risk Management Procedural Requirements), NPR 8705.05 (Probabilistic Risk Assessment Procedures for NASA Programs and Projects), and the System Safety requirements of NPR 8715.3 (NASA General Safety Program Requirements).

Multidisciplinary System Reliability Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mahadevan, Sankaran; Han, Song; Chamis, Christos C. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

The objective of this study is to develop a new methodology for estimating the reliability of engineering systems that encompass multiple disciplines. The methodology is formulated in the context of the NESSUS probabilistic structural analysis code, developed under the leadership of NASA Glenn Research Center. The NESSUS code has been successfully applied to the reliability estimation of a variety of structural engineering systems. This study examines whether the features of NESSUS could be used to investigate the reliability of systems in other disciplines such as heat transfer, fluid mechanics, electrical circuits etc., without considerable programming effort specific to each discipline. In this study, the mechanical equivalence between system behavior models in different disciplines are investigated to achieve this objective. A new methodology is presented for the analysis of heat transfer, fluid flow, and electrical circuit problems using the structural analysis routines within NESSUS, by utilizing the equivalence between the computational quantities in different disciplines. This technique is integrated with the fast probability integration and system reliability techniques within the NESSUS code, to successfully compute the system reliability of multidisciplinary systems. Traditional as well as progressive failure analysis methods for system reliability estimation are demonstrated, through a numerical example of a heat exchanger system involving failure modes in structural, heat transfer and fluid flow disciplines.

Multi-Disciplinary System Reliability Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mahadevan, Sankaran; Han, Song

1997-01-01

The objective of this study is to develop a new methodology for estimating the reliability of engineering systems that encompass multiple disciplines. The methodology is formulated in the context of the NESSUS probabilistic structural analysis code developed under the leadership of NASA Lewis Research Center. The NESSUS code has been successfully applied to the reliability estimation of a variety of structural engineering systems. This study examines whether the features of NESSUS could be used to investigate the reliability of systems in other disciplines such as heat transfer, fluid mechanics, electrical circuits etc., without considerable programming effort specific to each discipline. In this study, the mechanical equivalence between system behavior models in different disciplines are investigated to achieve this objective. A new methodology is presented for the analysis of heat transfer, fluid flow, and electrical circuit problems using the structural analysis routines within NESSUS, by utilizing the equivalence between the computational quantities in different disciplines. This technique is integrated with the fast probability integration and system reliability techniques within the NESSUS code, to successfully compute the system reliability of multi-disciplinary systems. Traditional as well as progressive failure analysis methods for system reliability estimation are demonstrated, through a numerical example of a heat exchanger system involving failure modes in structural, heat transfer and fluid flow disciplines.

A Passive System Reliability Analysis for a Station Blackout

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brunett, Acacia; Bucknor, Matthew; Grabaskas, David

2015-05-03

The latest iterations of advanced reactor designs have included increased reliance on passive safety systems to maintain plant integrity during unplanned sequences. While these systems are advantageous in reducing the reliance on human intervention and availability of power, the phenomenological foundations on which these systems are built require a novel approach to a reliability assessment. Passive systems possess the unique ability to fail functionally without failing physically, a result of their explicit dependency on existing boundary conditions that drive their operating mode and capacity. Argonne National Laboratory is performing ongoing analyses that demonstrate various methodologies for the characterization of passivemore » system reliability within a probabilistic framework. Two reliability analysis techniques are utilized in this work. The first approach, the Reliability Method for Passive Systems, provides a mechanistic technique employing deterministic models and conventional static event trees. The second approach, a simulation-based technique, utilizes discrete dynamic event trees to treat time- dependent phenomena during scenario evolution. For this demonstration analysis, both reliability assessment techniques are used to analyze an extended station blackout in a pool-type sodium fast reactor (SFR) coupled with a reactor cavity cooling system (RCCS). This work demonstrates the entire process of a passive system reliability analysis, including identification of important parameters and failure metrics, treatment of uncertainties and analysis of results.« less

Uncertainties in obtaining high reliability from stress-strength models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Neal, Donald M.; Matthews, William T.; Vangel, Mark G.

1992-01-01

There has been a recent interest in determining high statistical reliability in risk assessment of aircraft components. The potential consequences are identified of incorrectly assuming a particular statistical distribution for stress or strength data used in obtaining the high reliability values. The computation of the reliability is defined as the probability of the strength being greater than the stress over the range of stress values. This method is often referred to as the stress-strength model. A sensitivity analysis was performed involving a comparison of reliability results in order to evaluate the effects of assuming specific statistical distributions. Both known population distributions, and those that differed slightly from the known, were considered. Results showed substantial differences in reliability estimates even for almost nondetectable differences in the assumed distributions. These differences represent a potential problem in using the stress-strength model for high reliability computations, since in practice it is impossible to ever know the exact (population) distribution. An alternative reliability computation procedure is examined involving determination of a lower bound on the reliability values using extreme value distributions. This procedure reduces the possibility of obtaining nonconservative reliability estimates. Results indicated the method can provide conservative bounds when computing high reliability. An alternative reliability computation procedure is examined involving determination of a lower bound on the reliability values using extreme value distributions. This procedure reduces the possibility of obtaining nonconservative reliability estimates. Results indicated the method can provide conservative bounds when computing high reliability.

The SURE Reliability Analysis Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Butler, R. W.

1986-01-01

The SURE program is a new reliability analysis tool for ultrareliable computer system architectures. The program is based on computational methods recently developed for the NASA Langley Research Center. These methods provide an efficient means for computing accurate upper and lower bounds for the death state probabilities of a large class of semi-Markov models. Once a semi-Markov model is described using a simple input language, the SURE program automatically computes the upper and lower bounds on the probability of system failure. A parameter of the model can be specified as a variable over a range of values directing the SURE program to perform a sensitivity analysis automatically. This feature, along with the speed of the program, makes it especially useful as a design tool.

Optimizing preventive maintenance policy: A data-driven application for a light rail braking system.

PubMed

Corman, Francesco; Kraijema, Sander; Godjevac, Milinko; Lodewijks, Gabriel

2017-10-01

This article presents a case study determining the optimal preventive maintenance policy for a light rail rolling stock system in terms of reliability, availability, and maintenance costs. The maintenance policy defines one of the three predefined preventive maintenance actions at fixed time-based intervals for each of the subsystems of the braking system. Based on work, maintenance, and failure data, we model the reliability degradation of the system and its subsystems under the current maintenance policy by a Weibull distribution. We then analytically determine the relation between reliability, availability, and maintenance costs. We validate the model against recorded reliability and availability and get further insights by a dedicated sensitivity analysis. The model is then used in a sequential optimization framework determining preventive maintenance intervals to improve on the key performance indicators. We show the potential of data-driven modelling to determine optimal maintenance policy: same system availability and reliability can be achieved with 30% maintenance cost reduction, by prolonging the intervals and re-grouping maintenance actions.

Optimizing preventive maintenance policy: A data-driven application for a light rail braking system

PubMed Central

Corman, Francesco; Kraijema, Sander; Godjevac, Milinko; Lodewijks, Gabriel

2017-01-01

This article presents a case study determining the optimal preventive maintenance policy for a light rail rolling stock system in terms of reliability, availability, and maintenance costs. The maintenance policy defines one of the three predefined preventive maintenance actions at fixed time-based intervals for each of the subsystems of the braking system. Based on work, maintenance, and failure data, we model the reliability degradation of the system and its subsystems under the current maintenance policy by a Weibull distribution. We then analytically determine the relation between reliability, availability, and maintenance costs. We validate the model against recorded reliability and availability and get further insights by a dedicated sensitivity analysis. The model is then used in a sequential optimization framework determining preventive maintenance intervals to improve on the key performance indicators. We show the potential of data-driven modelling to determine optimal maintenance policy: same system availability and reliability can be achieved with 30% maintenance cost reduction, by prolonging the intervals and re-grouping maintenance actions. PMID:29278245

A flexible count data regression model for risk analysis.

PubMed

Guikema, Seth D; Coffelt, Jeremy P; Goffelt, Jeremy P

2008-02-01

In many cases, risk and reliability analyses involve estimating the probabilities of discrete events such as hardware failures and occurrences of disease or death. There is often additional information in the form of explanatory variables that can be used to help estimate the likelihood of different numbers of events in the future through the use of an appropriate regression model, such as a generalized linear model. However, existing generalized linear models (GLM) are limited in their ability to handle the types of variance structures often encountered in using count data in risk and reliability analysis. In particular, standard models cannot handle both underdispersed data (variance less than the mean) and overdispersed data (variance greater than the mean) in a single coherent modeling framework. This article presents a new GLM based on a reformulation of the Conway-Maxwell Poisson (COM) distribution that is useful for both underdispersed and overdispersed count data and demonstrates this model by applying it to the assessment of electric power system reliability. The results show that the proposed COM GLM can provide as good of fits to data as the commonly used existing models for overdispered data sets while outperforming these commonly used models for underdispersed data sets.

Automatic specification of reliability models for fault-tolerant computers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liceaga, Carlos A.; Siewiorek, Daniel P.

1993-01-01

The calculation of reliability measures using Markov models is required for life-critical processor-memory-switch structures that have standby redundancy or that are subject to transient or intermittent faults or repair. The task of specifying these models is tedious and prone to human error because of the large number of states and transitions required in any reasonable system. Therefore, model specification is a major analysis bottleneck, and model verification is a major validation problem. The general unfamiliarity of computer architects with Markov modeling techniques further increases the necessity of automating the model specification. Automation requires a general system description language (SDL). For practicality, this SDL should also provide a high level of abstraction and be easy to learn and use. The first attempt to define and implement an SDL with those characteristics is presented. A program named Automated Reliability Modeling (ARM) was constructed as a research vehicle. The ARM program uses a graphical interface as its SDL, and it outputs a Markov reliability model specification formulated for direct use by programs that generate and evaluate the model.

Probabilistic Structural Analysis Methods (PSAM) for select space propulsion system components, part 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1991-01-01

The technical effort and computer code enhancements performed during the sixth year of the Probabilistic Structural Analysis Methods program are summarized. Various capabilities are described to probabilistically combine structural response and structural resistance to compute component reliability. A library of structural resistance models is implemented in the Numerical Evaluations of Stochastic Structures Under Stress (NESSUS) code that included fatigue, fracture, creep, multi-factor interaction, and other important effects. In addition, a user interface was developed for user-defined resistance models. An accurate and efficient reliability method was developed and was successfully implemented in the NESSUS code to compute component reliability based on user-selected response and resistance models. A risk module was developed to compute component risk with respect to cost, performance, or user-defined criteria. The new component risk assessment capabilities were validated and demonstrated using several examples. Various supporting methodologies were also developed in support of component risk assessment.

Competing risk models in reliability systems, a weibull distribution model with bayesian analysis approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iskandar, Ismed; Satria Gondokaryono, Yudi

2016-02-01

In reliability theory, the most important problem is to determine the reliability of a complex system from the reliability of its components. The weakness of most reliability theories is that the systems are described and explained as simply functioning or failed. In many real situations, the failures may be from many causes depending upon the age and the environment of the system and its components. Another problem in reliability theory is one of estimating the parameters of the assumed failure models. The estimation may be based on data collected over censored or uncensored life tests. In many reliability problems, the failure data are simply quantitatively inadequate, especially in engineering design and maintenance system. The Bayesian analyses are more beneficial than the classical one in such cases. The Bayesian estimation analyses allow us to combine past knowledge or experience in the form of an apriori distribution with life test data to make inferences of the parameter of interest. In this paper, we have investigated the application of the Bayesian estimation analyses to competing risk systems. The cases are limited to the models with independent causes of failure by using the Weibull distribution as our model. A simulation is conducted for this distribution with the objectives of verifying the models and the estimators and investigating the performance of the estimators for varying sample size. The simulation data are analyzed by using Bayesian and the maximum likelihood analyses. The simulation results show that the change of the true of parameter relatively to another will change the value of standard deviation in an opposite direction. For a perfect information on the prior distribution, the estimation methods of the Bayesian analyses are better than those of the maximum likelihood. The sensitivity analyses show some amount of sensitivity over the shifts of the prior locations. They also show the robustness of the Bayesian analysis within the range between the true value and the maximum likelihood estimated value lines.

Scheduling structural health monitoring activities for optimizing life-cycle costs and reliability of wind turbines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hanish Nithin, Anu; Omenzetter, Piotr

2017-04-01

Optimization of the life-cycle costs and reliability of offshore wind turbines (OWTs) is an area of immense interest due to the widespread increase in wind power generation across the world. Most of the existing studies have used structural reliability and the Bayesian pre-posterior analysis for optimization. This paper proposes an extension to the previous approaches in a framework for probabilistic optimization of the total life-cycle costs and reliability of OWTs by combining the elements of structural reliability/risk analysis (SRA), the Bayesian pre-posterior analysis with optimization through a genetic algorithm (GA). The SRA techniques are adopted to compute the probabilities of damage occurrence and failure associated with the deterioration model. The probabilities are used in the decision tree and are updated using the Bayesian analysis. The output of this framework would determine the optimal structural health monitoring and maintenance schedules to be implemented during the life span of OWTs while maintaining a trade-off between the life-cycle costs and risk of the structural failure. Numerical illustrations with a generic deterioration model for one monitoring exercise in the life cycle of a system are demonstrated. Two case scenarios, namely to build initially an expensive and robust or a cheaper but more quickly deteriorating structures and to adopt expensive monitoring system, are presented to aid in the decision-making process.

[A reliability growth assessment method and its application in the development of equipment in space cabin].

PubMed

Chen, J D; Sun, H L

1999-04-01

Objective. To assess and predict reliability of an equipment dynamically by making full use of various test informations in the development of products. Method. A new reliability growth assessment method based on army material system analysis activity (AMSAA) model was developed. The method is composed of the AMSAA model and test data conversion technology. Result. The assessment and prediction results of a space-borne equipment conform to its expectations. Conclusion. It is suggested that this method should be further researched and popularized.

Computer-aided design of polymers and composites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kaelble, D. H.

1985-01-01

This book on computer-aided design of polymers and composites introduces and discusses the subject from the viewpoint of atomic and molecular models. Thus, the origins of stiffness, strength, extensibility, and fracture toughness in composite materials can be analyzed directly in terms of chemical composition and molecular structure. Aspects of polymer composite reliability are considered along with characterization techniques for composite reliability, relations between atomic and molecular properties, computer aided design and manufacture, polymer CAD/CAM models, and composite CAD/CAM models. Attention is given to multiphase structural adhesives, fibrous composite reliability, metal joint reliability, polymer physical states and transitions, chemical quality assurance, processability testing, cure monitoring and management, nondestructive evaluation (NDE), surface NDE, elementary properties, ionic-covalent bonding, molecular analysis, acid-base interactions, the manufacturing science, and peel mechanics.

Warranty optimisation based on the prediction of costs to the manufacturer using neural network model and Monte Carlo simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stamenkovic, Dragan D.; Popovic, Vladimir M.

2015-02-01

Warranty is a powerful marketing tool, but it always involves additional costs to the manufacturer. In order to reduce these costs and make use of warranty's marketing potential, the manufacturer needs to master the techniques for warranty cost prediction according to the reliability characteristics of the product. In this paper a combination free replacement and pro rata warranty policy is analysed as warranty model for one type of light bulbs. Since operating conditions have a great impact on product reliability, they need to be considered in such analysis. A neural network model is used to predict light bulb reliability characteristics based on the data from the tests of light bulbs in various operating conditions. Compared with a linear regression model used in the literature for similar tasks, the neural network model proved to be a more accurate method for such prediction. Reliability parameters obtained in this way are later used in Monte Carlo simulation for the prediction of times to failure needed for warranty cost calculation. The results of the analysis make possible for the manufacturer to choose the optimal warranty policy based on expected product operating conditions. In such a way, the manufacturer can lower the costs and increase the profit.

Reliability measurement for mixed mode failures of 33/11 kilovolt electric power distribution stations.

PubMed

Alwan, Faris M; Baharum, Adam; Hassan, Geehan S

2013-01-01

The reliability of the electrical distribution system is a contemporary research field due to diverse applications of electricity in everyday life and diverse industries. However a few research papers exist in literature. This paper proposes a methodology for assessing the reliability of 33/11 Kilovolt high-power stations based on average time between failures. The objective of this paper is to find the optimal fit for the failure data via time between failures. We determine the parameter estimation for all components of the station. We also estimate the reliability value of each component and the reliability value of the system as a whole. The best fitting distribution for the time between failures is a three parameter Dagum distribution with a scale parameter [Formula: see text] and shape parameters [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text]. Our analysis reveals that the reliability value decreased by 38.2% in each 30 days. We believe that the current paper is the first to address this issue and its analysis. Thus, the results obtained in this research reflect its originality. We also suggest the practicality of using these results for power systems for both the maintenance of power systems models and preventive maintenance models.

Reliability Measurement for Mixed Mode Failures of 33/11 Kilovolt Electric Power Distribution Stations

PubMed Central

Alwan, Faris M.; Baharum, Adam; Hassan, Geehan S.

2013-01-01

The reliability of the electrical distribution system is a contemporary research field due to diverse applications of electricity in everyday life and diverse industries. However a few research papers exist in literature. This paper proposes a methodology for assessing the reliability of 33/11 Kilovolt high-power stations based on average time between failures. The objective of this paper is to find the optimal fit for the failure data via time between failures. We determine the parameter estimation for all components of the station. We also estimate the reliability value of each component and the reliability value of the system as a whole. The best fitting distribution for the time between failures is a three parameter Dagum distribution with a scale parameter and shape parameters and . Our analysis reveals that the reliability value decreased by 38.2% in each 30 days. We believe that the current paper is the first to address this issue and its analysis. Thus, the results obtained in this research reflect its originality. We also suggest the practicality of using these results for power systems for both the maintenance of power systems models and preventive maintenance models. PMID:23936346

Photo- and electroproduction of K+Λ with a unitarity-restored isobar model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skoupil, D.; Bydžovský, P.

2018-02-01

Exploiting the isobar model, kaon photo- and electroproduction on the proton in the resonance region comes under scrutiny. An upgrade of our previous model, comprising higher-spin nucleon and hyperon exchanges in the consistent formalism, was accomplished by implementing energy-dependent widths of nucleon resonances, which leads to a different choice of hadron form factor with much softer values of cutoff parameter for the resonant part. For a reliable description of electroproduction, the necessity of including longitudinal couplings of nucleon resonances to virtual photons was revealed. We present a new model whose free parameters were adjusted to photo- and electroproduction data and which provides a reliable overall description of experimental data in all kinematic regions. The majority of nucleon resonances chosen in this analysis coincide with those selected in our previous analysis and also in the Bayesian analysis with the Regge-plus-resonance model as the states contributing to this process with the highest probability.

Reliability Analysis for AFTI-F16 SRFCS Using ASSIST and SURE

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wu, N. Eva

2001-01-01

This paper reports the results of a study on reliability analysis of an AFTI-16 Self-Repairing Flight Control System (SRFCS) using software tools SURE (Semi-Markov Unreliability Range Evaluator and ASSIST (Abstract Semi-Markov Specification Interface to the SURE Tool). The purpose of the study is to investigate the potential utility of the software tools in the ongoing effort of the NASA Aviation Safety Program, where the class of systems must be extended beyond the originally intended serving class of electronic digital processors. The study concludes that SURE and ASSIST are applicable to reliability, analysis of flight control systems. They are especially efficient for sensitivity analysis that quantifies the dependence of system reliability on model parameters. The study also confirms an earlier finding on the dominant role of a parameter called a failure coverage. The paper will remark on issues related to the improvement of coverage and the optimization of redundancy level.

Confirmatory Factor Analysis of the System for Evaluation of Teaching Qualities (SETQ) in Graduate Medical Training.

PubMed

Boerebach, Benjamin C M; Lombarts, Kiki M J M H; Arah, Onyebuchi A

2016-03-01

The System for Evaluation of Teaching Qualities (SETQ) was developed as a formative system for the continuous evaluation and development of physicians' teaching performance in graduate medical training. It has been seven years since the introduction and initial exploratory psychometric analysis of the SETQ questionnaires. This study investigates the validity and reliability of the SETQ questionnaires across hospitals and medical specialties using confirmatory factor analyses (CFAs), reliability analysis, and generalizability analysis. The SETQ questionnaires were tested in a sample of 3,025 physicians and 2,848 trainees in 46 hospitals. The CFA revealed acceptable fit of the data to the previously identified five-factor model. The high internal consistency estimates suggest satisfactory reliability of the subscales. These results provide robust evidence for the validity and reliability of the SETQ questionnaires for evaluating physicians' teaching performance. © The Author(s) 2014.

Sensitivity of wildlife habitat models to uncertainties in GIS data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stoms, David M.; Davis, Frank W.; Cogan, Christopher B.

1992-01-01

Decision makers need to know the reliability of output products from GIS analysis. For many GIS applications, it is not possible to compare these products to an independent measure of 'truth'. Sensitivity analysis offers an alternative means of estimating reliability. In this paper, we present a CIS-based statistical procedure for estimating the sensitivity of wildlife habitat models to uncertainties in input data and model assumptions. The approach is demonstrated in an analysis of habitat associations derived from a GIS database for the endangered California condor. Alternative data sets were generated to compare results over a reasonable range of assumptions about several sources of uncertainty. Sensitivity analysis indicated that condor habitat associations are relatively robust, and the results have increased our confidence in our initial findings. Uncertainties and methods described in the paper have general relevance for many GIS applications.

A Comparison of Various Stress Rupture Life Models for Orbiter Composite Pressure Vessels and Confidence Intervals

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grimes-Ledesma, Lorie; Murthy, Pappu L. N.; Phoenix, S. Leigh; Glaser, Ronald

2007-01-01

In conjunction with a recent NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) investigation of flight worthiness of Kevlar Overwrapped Composite Pressure Vessels (COPVs) on board the Orbiter, two stress rupture life prediction models were proposed independently by Phoenix and by Glaser. In this paper, the use of these models to determine the system reliability of 24 COPVs currently in service on board the Orbiter is discussed. The models are briefly described, compared to each other, and model parameters and parameter uncertainties are also reviewed to understand confidence in reliability estimation as well as the sensitivities of these parameters in influencing overall predicted reliability levels. Differences and similarities in the various models will be compared via stress rupture reliability curves (stress ratio vs. lifetime plots). Also outlined will be the differences in the underlying model premises, and predictive outcomes. Sources of error and sensitivities in the models will be examined and discussed based on sensitivity analysis and confidence interval determination. Confidence interval results and their implications will be discussed for the models by Phoenix and Glaser.

Building model analysis applications with the Joint Universal Parameter IdenTification and Evaluation of Reliability (JUPITER) API

USGS Publications Warehouse

Banta, E.R.; Hill, M.C.; Poeter, E.; Doherty, J.E.; Babendreier, J.

2008-01-01

The open-source, public domain JUPITER (Joint Universal Parameter IdenTification and Evaluation of Reliability) API (Application Programming Interface) provides conventions and Fortran-90 modules to develop applications (computer programs) for analyzing process models. The input and output conventions allow application users to access various applications and the analysis methods they embody with a minimum of time and effort. Process models simulate, for example, physical, chemical, and (or) biological systems of interest using phenomenological, theoretical, or heuristic approaches. The types of model analyses supported by the JUPITER API include, but are not limited to, sensitivity analysis, data needs assessment, calibration, uncertainty analysis, model discrimination, and optimization. The advantages provided by the JUPITER API for users and programmers allow for rapid programming and testing of new ideas. Application-specific coding can be in languages other than the Fortran-90 of the API. This article briefly describes the capabilities and utility of the JUPITER API, lists existing applications, and uses UCODE_2005 as an example.

Semi-Markov adjunction to the Computer-Aided Markov Evaluator (CAME)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rosch, Gene; Hutchins, Monica A.; Leong, Frank J.; Babcock, Philip S., IV

1988-01-01

The rule-based Computer-Aided Markov Evaluator (CAME) program was expanded in its ability to incorporate the effect of fault-handling processes into the construction of a reliability model. The fault-handling processes are modeled as semi-Markov events and CAME constructs and appropriate semi-Markov model. To solve the model, the program outputs it in a form which can be directly solved with the Semi-Markov Unreliability Range Evaluator (SURE) program. As a means of evaluating the alterations made to the CAME program, the program is used to model the reliability of portions of the Integrated Airframe/Propulsion Control System Architecture (IAPSA 2) reference configuration. The reliability predictions are compared with a previous analysis. The results bear out the feasibility of utilizing CAME to generate appropriate semi-Markov models to model fault-handling processes.

Interactive Reliability Model for Whisker-toughened Ceramics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Palko, Joseph L.

1993-01-01

Wider use of ceramic matrix composites (CMC) will require the development of advanced structural analysis technologies. The use of an interactive model to predict the time-independent reliability of a component subjected to multiaxial loads is discussed. The deterministic, three-parameter Willam-Warnke failure criterion serves as the theoretical basis for the reliability model. The strength parameters defining the model are assumed to be random variables, thereby transforming the deterministic failure criterion into a probabilistic criterion. The ability of the model to account for multiaxial stress states with the same unified theory is an improvement over existing models. The new model was coupled with a public-domain finite element program through an integrated design program. This allows a design engineer to predict the probability of failure of a component. A simple structural problem is analyzed using the new model, and the results are compared to existing models.

A Time-Variant Reliability Model for Copper Bending Pipe under Seawater-Active Corrosion Based on the Stochastic Degradation Process

PubMed Central

Li, Mengmeng; Feng, Qiang; Yang, Dezhen

2018-01-01

In the degradation process, the randomness and multiplicity of variables are difficult to describe by mathematical models. However, they are common in engineering and cannot be neglected, so it is necessary to study this issue in depth. In this paper, the copper bending pipe in seawater piping systems is taken as the analysis object, and the time-variant reliability is calculated by solving the interference of limit strength and maximum stress. We did degradation experiments and tensile experiments on copper material, and obtained the limit strength at each time. In addition, degradation experiments on copper bending pipe were done and the thickness at each time has been obtained, then the response of maximum stress was calculated by simulation. Further, with the help of one kind of Monte Carlo method we propose, the time-variant reliability of copper bending pipe was calculated based on the stochastic degradation process and interference theory. Compared with traditional methods and verified by maintenance records, the results show that the time-variant reliability model based on the stochastic degradation process proposed in this paper has better applicability in the reliability analysis, and it can be more convenient and accurate to predict the replacement cycle of copper bending pipe under seawater-active corrosion. PMID:29584695

Cost prediction model for various payloads and instruments for the Space Shuttle Orbiter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hoffman, F. E.

1984-01-01

The following cost parameters of the space shuttle were undertaken: (1) to develop a cost prediction model for various payload classes of instruments and experiments for the Space Shuttle Orbiter; and (2) to show the implications of various payload classes on the cost of: reliability analysis, quality assurance, environmental design requirements, documentation, parts selection, and other reliability enhancing activities.

Estimation of reliability of predictions and model applicability domain evaluation in the analysis of acute toxicity (LD50).

PubMed

Sazonovas, A; Japertas, P; Didziapetris, R

2010-01-01

This study presents a new type of acute toxicity (LD(50)) prediction that enables automated assessment of the reliability of predictions (which is synonymous with the assessment of the Model Applicability Domain as defined by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development). Analysis involved nearly 75,000 compounds from six animal systems (acute rat toxicity after oral and intraperitoneal administration; acute mouse toxicity after oral, intraperitoneal, intravenous, and subcutaneous administration). Fragmental Partial Least Squares (PLS) with 100 bootstraps yielded baseline predictions that were automatically corrected for non-linear effects in local chemical spaces--a combination called Global, Adjusted Locally According to Similarity (GALAS) modelling methodology. Each prediction obtained in this manner is provided with a reliability index value that depends on both compound's similarity to the training set (that accounts for similar trends in LD(50) variations within multiple bootstraps) and consistency of experimental results with regard to the baseline model in the local chemical environment. The actual performance of the Reliability Index (RI) was proven by its good (and uniform) correlations with Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) in all validation sets, thus providing quantitative assessment of the Model Applicability Domain. The obtained models can be used for compound screening in the early stages of drug development and prioritization for experimental in vitro testing or later in vivo animal acute toxicity studies.

Model-centric distribution automation: Capacity, reliability, and efficiency

DOE PAGES

Onen, Ahmet; Jung, Jaesung; Dilek, Murat; ...

2016-02-26

A series of analyses along with field validations that evaluate efficiency, reliability, and capacity improvements of model-centric distribution automation are presented. With model-centric distribution automation, the same model is used from design to real-time control calculations. A 14-feeder system with 7 substations is considered. The analyses involve hourly time-varying loads and annual load growth factors. Phase balancing and capacitor redesign modifications are used to better prepare the system for distribution automation, where the designs are performed considering time-varying loads. Coordinated control of load tap changing transformers, line regulators, and switched capacitor banks is considered. In evaluating distribution automation versus traditionalmore » system design and operation, quasi-steady-state power flow analysis is used. In evaluating distribution automation performance for substation transformer failures, reconfiguration for restoration analysis is performed. In evaluating distribution automation for storm conditions, Monte Carlo simulations coupled with reconfiguration for restoration calculations are used. As a result, the evaluations demonstrate that model-centric distribution automation has positive effects on system efficiency, capacity, and reliability.« less

Model-centric distribution automation: Capacity, reliability, and efficiency

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Onen, Ahmet; Jung, Jaesung; Dilek, Murat

A series of analyses along with field validations that evaluate efficiency, reliability, and capacity improvements of model-centric distribution automation are presented. With model-centric distribution automation, the same model is used from design to real-time control calculations. A 14-feeder system with 7 substations is considered. The analyses involve hourly time-varying loads and annual load growth factors. Phase balancing and capacitor redesign modifications are used to better prepare the system for distribution automation, where the designs are performed considering time-varying loads. Coordinated control of load tap changing transformers, line regulators, and switched capacitor banks is considered. In evaluating distribution automation versus traditionalmore » system design and operation, quasi-steady-state power flow analysis is used. In evaluating distribution automation performance for substation transformer failures, reconfiguration for restoration analysis is performed. In evaluating distribution automation for storm conditions, Monte Carlo simulations coupled with reconfiguration for restoration calculations are used. As a result, the evaluations demonstrate that model-centric distribution automation has positive effects on system efficiency, capacity, and reliability.« less

Reliability analysis of a wastewater treatment plant using fault tree analysis and Monte Carlo simulation.

PubMed

Taheriyoun, Masoud; Moradinejad, Saber

2015-01-01

The reliability of a wastewater treatment plant is a critical issue when the effluent is reused or discharged to water resources. Main factors affecting the performance of the wastewater treatment plant are the variation of the influent, inherent variability in the treatment processes, deficiencies in design, mechanical equipment, and operational failures. Thus, meeting the established reuse/discharge criteria requires assessment of plant reliability. Among many techniques developed in system reliability analysis, fault tree analysis (FTA) is one of the popular and efficient methods. FTA is a top down, deductive failure analysis in which an undesired state of a system is analyzed. In this study, the problem of reliability was studied on Tehran West Town wastewater treatment plant. This plant is a conventional activated sludge process, and the effluent is reused in landscape irrigation. The fault tree diagram was established with the violation of allowable effluent BOD as the top event in the diagram, and the deficiencies of the system were identified based on the developed model. Some basic events are operator's mistake, physical damage, and design problems. The analytical method is minimal cut sets (based on numerical probability) and Monte Carlo simulation. Basic event probabilities were calculated according to available data and experts' opinions. The results showed that human factors, especially human error had a great effect on top event occurrence. The mechanical, climate, and sewer system factors were in subsequent tier. Literature shows applying FTA has been seldom used in the past wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) risk analysis studies. Thus, the developed FTA model in this study considerably improves the insight into causal failure analysis of a WWTP. It provides an efficient tool for WWTP operators and decision makers to achieve the standard limits in wastewater reuse and discharge to the environment.

Reliability Sensitivity Analysis and Design Optimization of Composite Structures Based on Response Surface Methodology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rais-Rohani, Masoud

2003-01-01

This report discusses the development and application of two alternative strategies in the form of global and sequential local response surface (RS) techniques for the solution of reliability-based optimization (RBO) problems. The problem of a thin-walled composite circular cylinder under axial buckling instability is used as a demonstrative example. In this case, the global technique uses a single second-order RS model to estimate the axial buckling load over the entire feasible design space (FDS) whereas the local technique uses multiple first-order RS models with each applied to a small subregion of FDS. Alternative methods for the calculation of unknown coefficients in each RS model are explored prior to the solution of the optimization problem. The example RBO problem is formulated as a function of 23 uncorrelated random variables that include material properties, thickness and orientation angle of each ply, cylinder diameter and length, as well as the applied load. The mean values of the 8 ply thicknesses are treated as independent design variables. While the coefficients of variation of all random variables are held fixed, the standard deviations of ply thicknesses can vary during the optimization process as a result of changes in the design variables. The structural reliability analysis is based on the first-order reliability method with reliability index treated as the design constraint. In addition to the probabilistic sensitivity analysis of reliability index, the results of the RBO problem are presented for different combinations of cylinder length and diameter and laminate ply patterns. The two strategies are found to produce similar results in terms of accuracy with the sequential local RS technique having a considerably better computational efficiency.

Analysis of fatigue reliability for high temperature and high pressure multi-stage decompression control valve

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Long; Xu, Juanjuan; Zhang, Lifang; Xu, Xiaogang

2018-03-01

Based on stress-strength interference theory to establish the reliability mathematical model for high temperature and high pressure multi-stage decompression control valve (HMDCV), and introduced to the temperature correction coefficient for revising material fatigue limit at high temperature. Reliability of key dangerous components and fatigue sensitivity curve of each component are calculated and analyzed by the means, which are analyzed the fatigue life of control valve and combined with reliability theory of control valve model. The impact proportion of each component on the control valve system fatigue failure was obtained. The results is shown that temperature correction factor makes the theoretical calculations of reliability more accurate, prediction life expectancy of main pressure parts accords with the technical requirements, and valve body and the sleeve have obvious influence on control system reliability, the stress concentration in key part of control valve can be reduced in the design process by improving structure.

Relating design and environmental variables to reliability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kolarik, William J.; Landers, Thomas L.

The combination of space application and nuclear power source demands high reliability hardware. The possibilities of failure, either an inability to provide power or a catastrophic accident, must be minimized. Nuclear power experiences on the ground have led to highly sophisticated probabilistic risk assessment procedures, most of which require quantitative information to adequately assess such risks. In the area of hardware risk analysis, reliability information plays a key role. One of the lessons learned from the Three Mile Island experience is that thorough analyses of critical components are essential. Nuclear grade equipment shows some reliability advantages over commercial. However, no statistically significant difference has been found. A recent study pertaining to spacecraft electronics reliability, examined some 2500 malfunctions on more than 300 aircraft. The study classified the equipment failures into seven general categories. Design deficiencies and lack of environmental protection accounted for about half of all failures. Within each class, limited reliability modeling was performed using a Weibull failure model.

Integration of Human Reliability Analysis Models into the Simulation-Based Framework for the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization Toolkit

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Boring, Ronald; Mandelli, Diego; Rasmussen, Martin

2016-06-01

This report presents an application of a computation-based human reliability analysis (HRA) framework called the Human Unimodel for Nuclear Technology to Enhance Reliability (HUNTER). HUNTER has been developed not as a standalone HRA method but rather as framework that ties together different HRA methods to model dynamic risk of human activities as part of an overall probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). While we have adopted particular methods to build an initial model, the HUNTER framework is meant to be intrinsically flexible to new pieces that achieve particular modeling goals. In the present report, the HUNTER implementation has the following goals: •more » Integration with a high fidelity thermal-hydraulic model capable of modeling nuclear power plant behaviors and transients • Consideration of a PRA context • Incorporation of a solid psychological basis for operator performance • Demonstration of a functional dynamic model of a plant upset condition and appropriate operator response This report outlines these efforts and presents the case study of a station blackout scenario to demonstrate the various modules developed to date under the HUNTER research umbrella.« less

Reliability and Maintainability Analysis: A Conceptual Design Model

DTIC Science & Technology

1972-03-01

Elements For a System I. Research ane Development A. Preliminary design and engineering B. Fabrication of test equipment C. Test operations D...reliability racquiro:wents, little, if any, modu larzation and auto- matic test features would be incorporated in the subsystem design, limited reliability...niaintaina~ility testing and monitoring would be conducted turing dev!qopmcnt, and little Quality Control effort, in the rell ability/’uaintainalility

European Symposium on Reliability of Electron Devices, Failure Physics and Analysis (5th)

DTIC Science & Technology

1994-10-07

Characterisation and Modelling WEDNESDAY 5th OCTOBER Session C Hot Carriers Session D Oxide States Session E Power Devices Workshop 2 Power Devices Session F...Medium Enterprises .......... 17 W2 Power Devices Workshop "Reliability of Power Semiconductors for Traction Applications...New Mexico, USA Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, New Mexico, USA SESSION E Power Devices El Reliability Issues in New Technology

Rapid detection and non-subjective characterisation of infectious bronchitis virus isolates using high-resolution melt curve analysis and a mathematical model.

PubMed

Hewson, Kylie; Noormohammadi, Amir H; Devlin, Joanne M; Mardani, Karim; Ignjatovic, Jagoda

2009-01-01

Infectious bronchitis virus (IBV) is a coronavirus that causes upper respiratory, renal and/or reproductive diseases with high morbidity in poultry. Classification of IBV is important for implementation of vaccination strategies to control the disease in commercial poultry. Currently, the lengthy process of sequence analysis of the IBV S1 gene is considered the gold standard for IBV strain identification, with a high nucleotide identity (e.g. > or =95%) indicating related strains. However, this gene has a high propensity to mutate and/or undergo recombination, and alone it may not be reliable for strain identification. A real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) combined with high-resolution melt (HRM) curve analysis was developed based on the 3'UTR of IBV for rapid detection and classification of IBV from commercial poultry. HRM curves generated from 230 to 435-bp PCR products of several IBV strains were subjected to further analysis using a mathematical model also developed during this study. It was shown that a combination of HRM curve analysis and the mathematical model could reliably group 189 out of 190 comparisons of pairs of IBV strains in accordance with their 3'UTR and S1 gene identities. The newly developed RT-PCR/HRM curve analysis model could detect and rapidly identify novel and vaccine-related IBV strains, as confirmed by S1 gene and 3'UTR nucleotide sequences. This model is a rapid, reliable, accurate and non-subjective system for detection of IBVs in poultry flocks.

Modeling Imperfect Generator Behavior in Power System Operation Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Krad, Ibrahim

A key component in power system operations is the use of computer models to quickly study and analyze different operating conditions and futures in an efficient manner. The output of these models are sensitive to the data used in them as well as the assumptions made during their execution. One typical assumption is that generators and load assets perfectly follow operator control signals. While this is a valid simulation assumption, generators may not always accurately follow control signals. This imperfect response of generators could impact cost and reliability metrics. This paper proposes a generator model that capture this imperfect behaviormore » and examines its impact on production costs and reliability metrics using a steady-state power system operations model. Preliminary analysis shows that while costs remain relatively unchanged, there could be significant impacts on reliability metrics.« less

New Results in Software Model Checking and Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pasareanu, Corina S.

2010-01-01

This introductory article surveys new techniques, supported by automated tools, for the analysis of software to ensure reliability and safety. Special focus is on model checking techniques. The article also introduces the five papers that are enclosed in this special journal volume.

Preliminary Results Obtained in Integrated Safety Analysis of NASA Aviation Safety Program Technologies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reveley, Mary S.

2003-01-01

The goal of the NASA Aviation Safety Program (AvSP) is to develop and demonstrate technologies that contribute to a reduction in the aviation fatal accident rate by a factor of 5 by the year 2007 and by a factor of 10 by the year 2022. Integrated safety analysis of day-to-day operations and risks within those operations will provide an understanding of the Aviation Safety Program portfolio. Safety benefits analyses are currently being conducted. Preliminary results for the Synthetic Vision Systems (SVS) and Weather Accident Prevention (WxAP) projects of the AvSP have been completed by the Logistics Management Institute under a contract with the NASA Glenn Research Center. These analyses include both a reliability analysis and a computer simulation model. The integrated safety analysis method comprises two principal components: a reliability model and a simulation model. In the reliability model, the results indicate how different technologies and systems will perform in normal, degraded, and failed modes of operation. In the simulation, an operational scenario is modeled. The primary purpose of the SVS project is to improve safety by providing visual-flightlike situation awareness during instrument conditions. The current analyses are an estimate of the benefits of SVS in avoiding controlled flight into terrain. The scenario modeled has an aircraft flying directly toward a terrain feature. When the flight crew determines that the aircraft is headed toward an obstruction, the aircraft executes a level turn at speed. The simulation is ended when the aircraft completes the turn.

A diameter-sensitive flow entropy method for reliability consideration in water distribution system design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Haixing; Savić, Dragan; Kapelan, Zoran; Zhao, Ming; Yuan, Yixing; Zhao, Hongbin

2014-07-01

Flow entropy is a measure of uniformity of pipe flows in water distribution systems. By maximizing flow entropy one can identify reliable layouts or connectivity in networks. In order to overcome the disadvantage of the common definition of flow entropy that does not consider the impact of pipe diameter on reliability, an extended definition of flow entropy, termed as diameter-sensitive flow entropy, is proposed. This new methodology is then assessed by using other reliability methods, including Monte Carlo Simulation, a pipe failure probability model, and a surrogate measure (resilience index) integrated with water demand and pipe failure uncertainty. The reliability assessment is based on a sample of WDS designs derived from an optimization process for each of the two benchmark networks. Correlation analysis is used to evaluate quantitatively the relationship between entropy and reliability. To ensure reliability, a comparative analysis between the flow entropy and the new method is conducted. The results demonstrate that the diameter-sensitive flow entropy shows consistently much stronger correlation with the three reliability measures than simple flow entropy. Therefore, the new flow entropy method can be taken as a better surrogate measure for reliability and could be potentially integrated into the optimal design problem of WDSs. Sensitivity analysis results show that the velocity parameters used in the new flow entropy has no significant impact on the relationship between diameter-sensitive flow entropy and reliability.

Reliability of Computerized Neurocognitive Tests for Concussion Assessment: A Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Farnsworth, James L; Dargo, Lucas; Ragan, Brian G; Kang, Minsoo

2017-09-01

  Although widely used, computerized neurocognitive tests (CNTs) have been criticized because of low reliability and poor sensitivity. A systematic review was published summarizing the reliability of Immediate Post-Concussion Assessment and Cognitive Testing (ImPACT) scores; however, this was limited to a single CNT. Expansion of the previous review to include additional CNTs and a meta-analysis is needed. Therefore, our purpose was to analyze reliability data for CNTs using meta-analysis and examine moderating factors that may influence reliability.   A systematic literature search (key terms: reliability, computerized neurocognitive test, concussion) of electronic databases (MEDLINE, PubMed, Google Scholar, and SPORTDiscus) was conducted to identify relevant studies.   Studies were included if they met all of the following criteria: used a test-retest design, involved at least 1 CNT, provided sufficient statistical data to allow for effect-size calculation, and were published in English.   Two independent reviewers investigated each article to assess inclusion criteria. Eighteen studies involving 2674 participants were retained. Intraclass correlation coefficients were extracted to calculate effect sizes and determine overall reliability. The Fisher Z transformation adjusted for sampling error associated with averaging correlations. Moderator analyses were conducted to evaluate the effects of the length of the test-retest interval, intraclass correlation coefficient model selection, participant demographics, and study design on reliability. Heterogeneity was evaluated using the Cochran Q statistic.   The proportion of acceptable outcomes was greatest for the Axon Sports CogState Test (75%) and lowest for the ImPACT (25%). Moderator analyses indicated that the type of intraclass correlation coefficient model used significantly influenced effect-size estimates, accounting for 17% of the variation in reliability.   The Axon Sports CogState Test, which has a higher proportion of acceptable outcomes and shorter test duration relative to other CNTs, may be a reliable option; however, future studies are needed to compare the diagnostic accuracy of these instruments.

An Energy-Based Limit State Function for Estimation of Structural Reliability in Shock Environments

DOE PAGES

Guthrie, Michael A.

2013-01-01

limit state function is developed for the estimation of structural reliability in shock environments. This limit state function uses peak modal strain energies to characterize environmental severity and modal strain energies at failure to characterize the structural capacity. The Hasofer-Lind reliability index is briefly reviewed and its computation for the energy-based limit state function is discussed. Applications to two degree of freedom mass-spring systems and to a simple finite element model are considered. For these examples, computation of the reliability index requires little effort beyond a modal analysis, but still accounts for relevant uncertainties in both the structure and environment.more » For both examples, the reliability index is observed to agree well with the results of Monte Carlo analysis. In situations where fast, qualitative comparison of several candidate designs is required, the reliability index based on the proposed limit state function provides an attractive metric which can be used to compare and control reliability.« less

Time dependent reliability model incorporating continuum damage mechanics for high-temperature ceramics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Duffy, Stephen F.; Gyekenyesi, John P.

1989-01-01

Presently there are many opportunities for the application of ceramic materials at elevated temperatures. In the near future ceramic materials are expected to supplant high temperature metal alloys in a number of applications. It thus becomes essential to develop a capability to predict the time-dependent response of these materials. The creep rupture phenomenon is discussed, and a time-dependent reliability model is outlined that integrates continuum damage mechanics principles and Weibull analysis. Several features of the model are presented in a qualitative fashion, including predictions of both reliability and hazard rate. In addition, a comparison of the continuum and the microstructural kinetic equations highlights a strong resemblance in the two approaches.

Two tradeoffs between economy and reliability in loss of load probability constrained unit commitment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Yuan; Wang, Mingqiang; Ning, Xingyao

2018-02-01

Spinning reserve (SR) should be scheduled considering the balance between economy and reliability. To address the computational intractability cursed by the computation of loss of load probability (LOLP), many probabilistic methods use simplified formulations of LOLP to improve the computational efficiency. Two tradeoffs embedded in the SR optimization model are not explicitly analyzed in these methods. In this paper, two tradeoffs including primary tradeoff and secondary tradeoff between economy and reliability in the maximum LOLP constrained unit commitment (UC) model are explored and analyzed in a small system and in IEEE-RTS System. The analysis on the two tradeoffs can help in establishing new efficient simplified LOLP formulations and new SR optimization models.

An object-oriented approach to risk and reliability analysis : methodology and aviation safety applications.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dandini, Vincent John; Duran, Felicia Angelica; Wyss, Gregory Dane

2003-09-01

This article describes how features of event tree analysis and Monte Carlo-based discrete event simulation can be combined with concepts from object-oriented analysis to develop a new risk assessment methodology, with some of the best features of each. The resultant object-based event scenario tree (OBEST) methodology enables an analyst to rapidly construct realistic models for scenarios for which an a priori discovery of event ordering is either cumbersome or impossible. Each scenario produced by OBEST is automatically associated with a likelihood estimate because probabilistic branching is integral to the object model definition. The OBEST methodology is then applied to anmore » aviation safety problem that considers mechanisms by which an aircraft might become involved in a runway incursion incident. The resulting OBEST model demonstrates how a close link between human reliability analysis and probabilistic risk assessment methods can provide important insights into aviation safety phenomenology.« less

Reliability evaluation methodology for NASA applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Taneja, Vidya S.

1992-01-01

Liquid rocket engine technology has been characterized by the development of complex systems containing large number of subsystems, components, and parts. The trend to even larger and more complex system is continuing. The liquid rocket engineers have been focusing mainly on performance driven designs to increase payload delivery of a launch vehicle for a given mission. In otherwords, although the failure of a single inexpensive part or component may cause the failure of the system, reliability in general has not been considered as one of the system parameters like cost or performance. Up till now, quantification of reliability has not been a consideration during system design and development in the liquid rocket industry. Engineers and managers have long been aware of the fact that the reliability of the system increases during development, but no serious attempts have been made to quantify reliability. As a result, a method to quantify reliability during design and development is needed. This includes application of probabilistic models which utilize both engineering analysis and test data. Classical methods require the use of operating data for reliability demonstration. In contrast, the method described in this paper is based on similarity, analysis, and testing combined with Bayesian statistical analysis.

Stochastic Models of Human Errors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Elshamy, Maged; Elliott, Dawn M. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

Humans play an important role in the overall reliability of engineering systems. More often accidents and systems failure are traced to human errors. Therefore, in order to have meaningful system risk analysis, the reliability of the human element must be taken into consideration. Describing the human error process by mathematical models is a key to analyzing contributing factors. Therefore, the objective of this research effort is to establish stochastic models substantiated by sound theoretic foundation to address the occurrence of human errors in the processing of the space shuttle.

Linguistic validation of stigmatisation degree, self-esteem and knowledge questionnaire among asthma patients using Rasch analysis.

PubMed

Ahmad, Sohail; Ismail, Ahmad Izuanuddin; Khan, Tahir Mehmood; Akram, Waqas; Mohd Zim, Mohd Arif; Ismail, Nahlah Elkudssiah

2017-04-01

The stigmatisation degree, self-esteem and knowledge either directly or indirectly influence the control and self-management of asthma. To date, there is no valid and reliable instrument that can assess these key issues collectively. The main aim of this study was to test the reliability and validity of the newly devised and translated "Stigmatisation Degree, Self-Esteem and Knowledge Questionnaire" among adult asthma patients using the Rasch measurement model. This cross-sectional study recruited thirty adult asthma patients from two respiratory specialist clinics in Selangor, Malaysia. The newly devised self-administered questionnaire was adapted from relevant publications and translated into the Malay language using international standard translation guidelines. Content and face validation was done. The data were extracted and analysed for real item reliability and construct validation using the Rasch model. The translated "Stigmatisation Degree, Self-Esteem and Knowledge Questionnaire" showed high real item reliability values of 0.90, 0.86 and 0.89 for stigmatisation degree, self-esteem, and knowledge of asthma, respectively. Furthermore, all values of point measure correlation (PTMEA Corr) analysis were within the acceptable specified range of the Rasch model. Infit/outfit mean square values and Z standard (ZSTD) values of each item verified the construct validity and suggested retaining all the items in the questionnaire. The reliability analyses and output tables of item measures for construct validation proved the translated Malaysian version of "Stigmatisation Degree, Self-Esteem and Knowledge Questionnaire" as a valid and highly reliable questionnaire.

Reliability of Soft Tissue Model Based Implant Surgical Guides; A Methodological Mistake.

PubMed

Sabour, Siamak; Dastjerdi, Elahe Vahid

2012-08-20

Abstract We were interested to read the paper by Maney P and colleagues published in the July 2012 issue of J Oral Implantol. The authors aimed to assess the reliability of soft tissue model based implant surgical guides reported that the accuracy was evaluated using software. 1 I found the manuscript title of Maney P, et al. incorrect and misleading. Moreover, they reported twenty-two sites (46.81%) were considered accurate (13 of 24 maxillary and 9 of 23 mandibular sites). As the authors point out in their conclusion, Soft tissue models do not always provide sufficient accuracy for implant surgical guide fabrication.Reliability (precision) and validity (accuracy) are two different methodological issues in researches. Sensitivity, specificity, PPV, NPV, likelihood ratio positive (true positive/false negative) and likelihood ratio negative (false positive/ true negative) as well as odds ratio (true results\\false results - preferably more than 50) are among the tests to evaluate the validity (accuracy) of a single test compared to a gold standard.2-4 It is not clear that the reported twenty-two sites (46.81%) which were considered accurate related to which of the above mentioned estimates for validity analysis. Reliability (repeatability or reproducibility) is being assessed by different statistical tests such as Pearson r, least square and paired t.test which all of them are among common mistakes in reliability analysis 5. Briefly, for quantitative variable Intra Class Correlation Coefficient (ICC) and for qualitative variables weighted kappa should be used with caution because kappa has its own limitation too. Regarding reliability or agreement, it is good to know that for computing kappa value, just concordant cells are being considered, whereas discordant cells should also be taking into account in order to reach a correct estimation of agreement (Weighted kappa).2-4 As a take home message, for reliability and validity analysis, appropriate tests should be applied.

The Evaluation Method of the Lightning Strike on Transmission Lines Aiming at Power Grid Reliability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wen, Jianfeng; Wu, Jianwei; Huang, Liandong; Geng, Yinan; Yu, zhanqing

2018-01-01

Lightning protection of power system focuses on reducing the flashover rate, only distinguishing by the voltage level, without considering the functional differences between the transmission lines, and being lack of analysis the effect on the reliability of power grid. This will lead lightning protection design of general transmission lines is surplus but insufficient for key lines. In order to solve this problem, the analysis method of lightning striking on transmission lines for power grid reliability is given. Full wave process theory is used to analyze the lightning back striking; the leader propagation model is used to describe the process of shielding failure of transmission lines. The index of power grid reliability is introduced and the effect of transmission line fault on the reliability of power system is discussed in detail.

Optimization Testbed Cometboards Extended into Stochastic Domain

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Patnaik, Surya N.; Pai, Shantaram S.; Coroneos, Rula M.; Patnaik, Surya N.

2010-01-01

COMparative Evaluation Testbed of Optimization and Analysis Routines for the Design of Structures (CometBoards) is a multidisciplinary design optimization software. It was originally developed for deterministic calculation. It has now been extended into the stochastic domain for structural design problems. For deterministic problems, CometBoards is introduced through its subproblem solution strategy as well as the approximation concept in optimization. In the stochastic domain, a design is formulated as a function of the risk or reliability. Optimum solution including the weight of a structure, is also obtained as a function of reliability. Weight versus reliability traced out an inverted-S-shaped graph. The center of the graph corresponded to 50 percent probability of success, or one failure in two samples. A heavy design with weight approaching infinity could be produced for a near-zero rate of failure that corresponded to unity for reliability. Weight can be reduced to a small value for the most failure-prone design with a compromised reliability approaching zero. The stochastic design optimization (SDO) capability for an industrial problem was obtained by combining three codes: MSC/Nastran code was the deterministic analysis tool, fast probabilistic integrator, or the FPI module of the NESSUS software, was the probabilistic calculator, and CometBoards became the optimizer. The SDO capability requires a finite element structural model, a material model, a load model, and a design model. The stochastic optimization concept is illustrated considering an academic example and a real-life airframe component made of metallic and composite materials.

Improved reliability of wind turbine towers with active tuned mass dampers (ATMDs)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fitzgerald, Breiffni; Sarkar, Saptarshi; Staino, Andrea

2018-04-01

Modern multi-megawatt wind turbines are composed of slender, flexible, and lightly damped blades and towers. These components exhibit high susceptibility to wind-induced vibrations. As the size, flexibility and cost of the towers have increased in recent years, the need to protect these structures against damage induced by turbulent aerodynamic loading has become apparent. This paper combines structural dynamic models and probabilistic assessment tools to demonstrate improvements in structural reliability when modern wind turbine towers are equipped with active tuned mass dampers (ATMDs). This study proposes a multi-modal wind turbine model for wind turbine control design and analysis. This study incorporates an ATMD into the tower of this model. The model is subjected to stochastically generated wind loads of varying speeds to develop wind-induced probabilistic demand models for towers of modern multi-megawatt wind turbines under structural uncertainty. Numerical simulations have been carried out to ascertain the effectiveness of the active control system to improve the structural performance of the wind turbine and its reliability. The study constructs fragility curves, which illustrate reductions in the vulnerability of towers to wind loading owing to the inclusion of the damper. Results show that the active controller is successful in increasing the reliability of the tower responses. According to the analysis carried out in this paper, a strong reduction of the probability of exceeding a given displacement at the rated wind speed has been observed.

A Report on Simulation-Driven Reliability and Failure Analysis of Large-Scale Storage Systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wan, Lipeng; Wang, Feiyi; Oral, H. Sarp

High-performance computing (HPC) storage systems provide data availability and reliability using various hardware and software fault tolerance techniques. Usually, reliability and availability are calculated at the subsystem or component level using limited metrics such as, mean time to failure (MTTF) or mean time to data loss (MTTDL). This often means settling on simple and disconnected failure models (such as exponential failure rate) to achieve tractable and close-formed solutions. However, such models have been shown to be insufficient in assessing end-to-end storage system reliability and availability. We propose a generic simulation framework aimed at analyzing the reliability and availability of storagemore » systems at scale, and investigating what-if scenarios. The framework is designed for an end-to-end storage system, accommodating the various components and subsystems, their interconnections, failure patterns and propagation, and performs dependency analysis to capture a wide-range of failure cases. We evaluate the framework against a large-scale storage system that is in production and analyze its failure projections toward and beyond the end of lifecycle. We also examine the potential operational impact by studying how different types of components affect the overall system reliability and availability, and present the preliminary results« less

Validity and Reliability of the 8-Item Work Limitations Questionnaire.

PubMed

Walker, Timothy J; Tullar, Jessica M; Diamond, Pamela M; Kohl, Harold W; Amick, Benjamin C

2017-12-01

Purpose To evaluate factorial validity, scale reliability, test-retest reliability, convergent validity, and discriminant validity of the 8-item Work Limitations Questionnaire (WLQ) among employees from a public university system. Methods A secondary analysis using de-identified data from employees who completed an annual Health Assessment between the years 2009-2015 tested research aims. Confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) (n = 10,165) tested the latent structure of the 8-item WLQ. Scale reliability was determined using a CFA-based approach while test-retest reliability was determined using the intraclass correlation coefficient. Convergent/discriminant validity was tested by evaluating relations between the 8-item WLQ with health/performance variables for convergent validity (health-related work performance, number of chronic conditions, and general health) and demographic variables for discriminant validity (gender and institution type). Results A 1-factor model with three correlated residuals demonstrated excellent model fit (CFI = 0.99, TLI = 0.99, RMSEA = 0.03, and SRMR = 0.01). The scale reliability was acceptable (0.69, 95% CI 0.68-0.70) and the test-retest reliability was very good (ICC = 0.78). Low-to-moderate associations were observed between the 8-item WLQ and the health/performance variables while weak associations were observed between the demographic variables. Conclusions The 8-item WLQ demonstrated sufficient reliability and validity among employees from a public university system. Results suggest the 8-item WLQ is a usable alternative for studies when the more comprehensive 25-item WLQ is not available.

Reliability analysis based on the losses from failures.

PubMed

Todinov, M T

2006-04-01

The conventional reliability analysis is based on the premise that increasing the reliability of a system will decrease the losses from failures. On the basis of counterexamples, it is demonstrated that this is valid only if all failures are associated with the same losses. In case of failures associated with different losses, a system with larger reliability is not necessarily characterized by smaller losses from failures. Consequently, a theoretical framework and models are proposed for a reliability analysis, linking reliability and the losses from failures. Equations related to the distributions of the potential losses from failure have been derived. It is argued that the classical risk equation only estimates the average value of the potential losses from failure and does not provide insight into the variability associated with the potential losses. Equations have also been derived for determining the potential and the expected losses from failures for nonrepairable and repairable systems with components arranged in series, with arbitrary life distributions. The equations are also valid for systems/components with multiple mutually exclusive failure modes. The expected losses given failure is a linear combination of the expected losses from failure associated with the separate failure modes scaled by the conditional probabilities with which the failure modes initiate failure. On this basis, an efficient method for simplifying complex reliability block diagrams has been developed. Branches of components arranged in series whose failures are mutually exclusive can be reduced to single components with equivalent hazard rate, downtime, and expected costs associated with intervention and repair. A model for estimating the expected losses from early-life failures has also been developed. For a specified time interval, the expected losses from early-life failures are a sum of the products of the expected number of failures in the specified time intervals covering the early-life failures region and the expected losses given failure characterizing the corresponding time intervals. For complex systems whose components are not logically arranged in series, discrete simulation algorithms and software have been created for determining the losses from failures in terms of expected lost production time, cost of intervention, and cost of replacement. Different system topologies are assessed to determine the effect of modifications of the system topology on the expected losses from failures. It is argued that the reliability allocation in a production system should be done to maximize the profit/value associated with the system. Consequently, a method for setting reliability requirements and reliability allocation maximizing the profit by minimizing the total cost has been developed. Reliability allocation that maximizes the profit in case of a system consisting of blocks arranged in series is achieved by determining for each block individually the reliabilities of the components in the block that minimize the sum of the capital, operation costs, and the expected losses from failures. A Monte Carlo simulation based net present value (NPV) cash-flow model has also been proposed, which has significant advantages to cash-flow models based on the expected value of the losses from failures per time interval. Unlike these models, the proposed model has the capability to reveal the variation of the NPV due to different number of failures occurring during a specified time interval (e.g., during one year). The model also permits tracking the impact of the distribution pattern of failure occurrences and the time dependence of the losses from failures.

Evaluation of the CEAS model for barley yields in North Dakota and Minnesota

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barnett, T. L. (Principal Investigator)

1981-01-01

The CEAS yield model is based upon multiple regression analysis at the CRD and state levels. For the historical time series, yield is regressed on a set of variables derived from monthly mean temperature and monthly precipitation. Technological trend is represented by piecewise linear and/or quadriatic functions of year. Indicators of yield reliability obtained from a ten-year bootstrap test (1970-79) demonstrated that biases are small and performance as indicated by the root mean square errors are acceptable for intended application, however, model response for individual years particularly unusual years, is not very reliable and shows some large errors. The model is objective, adequate, timely, simple and not costly. It considers scientific knowledge on a broad scale but not in detail, and does not provide a good current measure of modeled yield reliability.

Failure rate analysis of Goddard Space Flight Center spacecraft performance during orbital life

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Norris, H. P.; Timmins, A. R.

1976-01-01

Space life performance data on 57 Goddard Space Flight Center spacecraft are analyzed from the standpoint of determining an appropriate reliability model and the associated reliability parameters. Data from published NASA reports, which cover the space performance of GSFC spacecraft launched in the 1960-1970 decade, form the basis of the analyses. The results of the analyses show that the time distribution of 449 malfunctions, of which 248 were classified as failures (not necessarily catastrophic), follow a reliability growth pattern that can be described with either the Duane model or a Weibull distribution. The advantages of both mathematical models are used in order to: identify space failure rates, observe chronological trends, and compare failure rates with those experienced during the prelaunch environmental tests of the flight model spacecraft.

Inter- and intraexaminer reliability of bitewing radiography and near-infrared light transillumination for proximal caries detection and assessment.

PubMed

Litzenburger, Friederike; Heck, Katrin; Pitchika, Vinay; Neuhaus, Klaus W; Jost, Fabian N; Hickel, Reinhard; Jablonski-Momeni, Anahita; Welk, Alexander; Lederer, Alexander; Kühnisch, Jan

2018-02-01

The purpose of this in vitro study was to evaluate the inter- and intraexaminer reliability of digital bitewing (DBW) radiography and near-infrared light transillumination (NIRT) for proximal caries detection and assessment in posterior teeth. From a pool of 85 patients, 100 corresponding pairs of DBW and NIRT images (~1/3 healthy, ~1/3 with enamel caries and ~1/3 with dentin caries) were chosen. 12 dentists with different professional status and clinical experience repeated the evaluation in two blinded cycles. Two experienced dentists provided a reference diagnosis after analysing all images independently. Statistical analysis included the calculation of simple (κ) and weighted Kappa (wκ) values as a measure of reliability. Logistic regression with a backward elimination model was used to investigate the influence of the diagnostic method, evaluation cycle, type of tooth, and clinical experience on reliability. Altogether, inter- and intraexaminer reliability exhibited good to excellent κ and wκ values for DBW radiography (Inter: κ = 0.60/ 0.63; wκ = 0.74/0.76; Intra: κ = 0.64; wκ = 0.77) and NIRT (Inter: κ = 0.74/0.64; wκ = 0.86/0.82; Intra: κ = 0.68; wκ = 0.84). The backward elimination model revealed NIRT to be significantly more reliable than DBW radiography. This study revealed a good to excellent inter- and intraexaminer reliability for proximal caries detection using DBW and NIRT images. The logistic regression analysis revealed significantly better reliability for NIRT. Additionally, the first evaluation cycle was more reliable according to the reference diagnoses.

Reliability analysis in the Office of Safety, Environmental, and Mission Assurance (OSEMA)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kauffmann, Paul J.

1994-12-01

The technical personnel in the SEMA office are working to provide the highest degree of value-added activities to their support of the NASA Langley Research Center mission. Management perceives that reliability analysis tools and an understanding of a comprehensive systems approach to reliability will be a foundation of this change process. Since the office is involved in a broad range of activities supporting space mission projects and operating activities (such as wind tunnels and facilities), it was not clear what reliability tools the office should be familiar with and how these tools could serve as a flexible knowledge base for organizational growth. Interviews and discussions with the office personnel (both technicians and engineers) revealed that job responsibilities ranged from incoming inspection to component or system analysis to safety and risk. It was apparent that a broad base in applied probability and reliability along with tools for practical application was required by the office. A series of ten class sessions with a duration of two hours each was organized and scheduled. Hand-out materials were developed and practical examples based on the type of work performed by the office personnel were included. Topics covered were: Reliability Systems - a broad system oriented approach to reliability; Probability Distributions - discrete and continuous distributions; Sampling and Confidence Intervals - random sampling and sampling plans; Data Analysis and Estimation - Model selection and parameter estimates; and Reliability Tools - block diagrams, fault trees, event trees, FMEA. In the future, this information will be used to review and assess existing equipment and processes from a reliability system perspective. An analysis of incoming materials sampling plans was also completed. This study looked at the issues associated with Mil Std 105 and changes for a zero defect acceptance sampling plan.

Reliability analysis in the Office of Safety, Environmental, and Mission Assurance (OSEMA)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kauffmann, Paul J.

1994-01-01

The technical personnel in the SEMA office are working to provide the highest degree of value-added activities to their support of the NASA Langley Research Center mission. Management perceives that reliability analysis tools and an understanding of a comprehensive systems approach to reliability will be a foundation of this change process. Since the office is involved in a broad range of activities supporting space mission projects and operating activities (such as wind tunnels and facilities), it was not clear what reliability tools the office should be familiar with and how these tools could serve as a flexible knowledge base for organizational growth. Interviews and discussions with the office personnel (both technicians and engineers) revealed that job responsibilities ranged from incoming inspection to component or system analysis to safety and risk. It was apparent that a broad base in applied probability and reliability along with tools for practical application was required by the office. A series of ten class sessions with a duration of two hours each was organized and scheduled. Hand-out materials were developed and practical examples based on the type of work performed by the office personnel were included. Topics covered were: Reliability Systems - a broad system oriented approach to reliability; Probability Distributions - discrete and continuous distributions; Sampling and Confidence Intervals - random sampling and sampling plans; Data Analysis and Estimation - Model selection and parameter estimates; and Reliability Tools - block diagrams, fault trees, event trees, FMEA. In the future, this information will be used to review and assess existing equipment and processes from a reliability system perspective. An analysis of incoming materials sampling plans was also completed. This study looked at the issues associated with Mil Std 105 and changes for a zero defect acceptance sampling plan.

Reliability of a new biokinetic model of zirconium in internal dosimetry: part I, parameter uncertainty analysis.

PubMed

Li, Wei Bo; Greiter, Matthias; Oeh, Uwe; Hoeschen, Christoph

2011-12-01

The reliability of biokinetic models is essential in internal dose assessments and radiation risk analysis for the public, occupational workers, and patients exposed to radionuclides. In this paper, a method for assessing the reliability of biokinetic models by means of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis was developed. The paper is divided into two parts. In the first part of the study published here, the uncertainty sources of the model parameters for zirconium (Zr), developed by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP), were identified and analyzed. Furthermore, the uncertainty of the biokinetic experimental measurement performed at the Helmholtz Zentrum München-German Research Center for Environmental Health (HMGU) for developing a new biokinetic model of Zr was analyzed according to the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement, published by the International Organization for Standardization. The confidence interval and distribution of model parameters of the ICRP and HMGU Zr biokinetic models were evaluated. As a result of computer biokinetic modelings, the mean, standard uncertainty, and confidence interval of model prediction calculated based on the model parameter uncertainty were presented and compared to the plasma clearance and urinary excretion measured after intravenous administration. It was shown that for the most important compartment, the plasma, the uncertainty evaluated for the HMGU model was much smaller than that for the ICRP model; that phenomenon was observed for other organs and tissues as well. The uncertainty of the integral of the radioactivity of Zr up to 50 y calculated by the HMGU model after ingestion by adult members of the public was shown to be smaller by a factor of two than that of the ICRP model. It was also shown that the distribution type of the model parameter strongly influences the model prediction, and the correlation of the model input parameters affects the model prediction to a certain extent depending on the strength of the correlation. In the case of model prediction, the qualitative comparison of the model predictions with the measured plasma and urinary data showed the HMGU model to be more reliable than the ICRP model; quantitatively, the uncertainty model prediction by the HMGU systemic biokinetic model is smaller than that of the ICRP model. The uncertainty information on the model parameters analyzed in this study was used in the second part of the paper regarding a sensitivity analysis of the Zr biokinetic models.

Reliability Analysis of the Adult Mentoring Assessment for Extension Professionals

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Denny, Marina D'Abreau

2017-01-01

The Adult Mentoring Assessment for Extension Professionals will help mentors develop an accurate profile of their mentoring style with adult learners and identify areas of proficiency and deficiency based on six constructs--relationship, information, facilitation, confrontation, modeling, and vision. This article reports on the reliability of this…

Monte Carlo Approach for Reliability Estimations in Generalizability Studies.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dimitrov, Dimiter M.

A Monte Carlo approach is proposed, using the Statistical Analysis System (SAS) programming language, for estimating reliability coefficients in generalizability theory studies. Test scores are generated by a probabilistic model that considers the probability for a person with a given ability score to answer an item with a given difficulty…

Reliability and cost analysis methods

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Suich, Ronald C.

1991-01-01

In the design phase of a system, how does a design engineer or manager choose between a subsystem with .990 reliability and a more costly subsystem with .995 reliability? When is the increased cost justified? High reliability is not necessarily an end in itself but may be desirable in order to reduce the expected cost due to subsystem failure. However, this may not be the wisest use of funds since the expected cost due to subsystem failure is not the only cost involved. The subsystem itself may be very costly. We should not consider either the cost of the subsystem or the expected cost due to subsystem failure separately but should minimize the total of the two costs, i.e., the total of the cost of the subsystem plus the expected cost due to subsystem failure. This final report discusses the Combined Analysis of Reliability, Redundancy, and Cost (CARRAC) methods which were developed under Grant Number NAG 3-1100 from the NASA Lewis Research Center. CARRAC methods and a CARRAC computer program employ five models which can be used to cover a wide range of problems. The models contain an option which can include repair of failed modules.

Exploring the validity and reliability of a questionnaire for evaluating veterinary clinical teachers' supervisory skills during clinical rotations.

PubMed

Boerboom, T B B; Dolmans, D H J M; Jaarsma, A D C; Muijtjens, A M M; Van Beukelen, P; Scherpbier, A J J A

2011-01-01

Feedback to aid teachers in improving their teaching requires validated evaluation instruments. When implementing an evaluation instrument in a different context, it is important to collect validity evidence from multiple sources. We examined the validity and reliability of the Maastricht Clinical Teaching Questionnaire (MCTQ) as an instrument to evaluate individual clinical teachers during short clinical rotations in veterinary education. We examined four sources of validity evidence: (1) Content was examined based on theory of effective learning. (2) Response process was explored in a pilot study. (3) Internal structure was assessed by confirmatory factor analysis using 1086 student evaluations and reliability was examined utilizing generalizability analysis. (4) Relations with other relevant variables were examined by comparing factor scores with other outcomes. Content validity was supported by theory underlying the cognitive apprenticeship model on which the instrument is based. The pilot study resulted in an additional question about supervision time. A five-factor model showed a good fit with the data. Acceptable reliability was achievable with 10-12 questionnaires per teacher. Correlations between the factors and overall teacher judgement were strong. The MCTQ appears to be a valid and reliable instrument to evaluate clinical teachers' performance during short rotations.

eHealth literacy in chronic disease patients: An item response theory analysis of the eHealth literacy scale (eHEALS).

PubMed

Paige, Samantha R; Krieger, Janice L; Stellefson, Michael; Alber, Julia M

2017-02-01

Chronic disease patients are affected by low computer and health literacy, which negatively affects their ability to benefit from access to online health information. To estimate reliability and confirm model specifications for eHealth Literacy Scale (eHEALS) scores among chronic disease patients using Classical Test (CTT) and Item Response Theory techniques. A stratified sample of Black/African American (N=341) and Caucasian (N=343) adults with chronic disease completed an online survey including the eHEALS. Item discrimination was explored using bi-variate correlations and Cronbach's alpha for internal consistency. A categorical confirmatory factor analysis tested a one-factor structure of eHEALS scores. Item characteristic curves, in-fit/outfit statistics, omega coefficient, and item reliability and separation estimates were computed. A 1-factor structure of eHEALS was confirmed by statistically significant standardized item loadings, acceptable model fit indices (CFI/TLI>0.90), and 70% variance explained by the model. Item response categories increased with higher theta levels, and there was evidence of acceptable reliability (ω=0.94; item reliability=89; item separation=8.54). eHEALS scores are a valid and reliable measure of self-reported eHealth literacy among Internet-using chronic disease patients. Providers can use eHEALS to help identify patients' eHealth literacy skills. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

SARA - SURE/ASSIST RELIABILITY ANALYSIS WORKSTATION (VAX VMS VERSION)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Butler, R. W.

1994-01-01

SARA, the SURE/ASSIST Reliability Analysis Workstation, is a bundle of programs used to solve reliability problems. The mathematical approach chosen to solve a reliability problem may vary with the size and nature of the problem. The Systems Validation Methods group at NASA Langley Research Center has created a set of four software packages that form the basis for a reliability analysis workstation, including three for use in analyzing reconfigurable, fault-tolerant systems and one for analyzing non-reconfigurable systems. The SARA bundle includes the three for reconfigurable, fault-tolerant systems: SURE reliability analysis program (COSMIC program LAR-13789, LAR-14921); the ASSIST specification interface program (LAR-14193, LAR-14923), and PAWS/STEM reliability analysis programs (LAR-14165, LAR-14920). As indicated by the program numbers in parentheses, each of these three packages is also available separately in two machine versions. The fourth package, which is only available separately, is FTC, the Fault Tree Compiler (LAR-14586, LAR-14922). FTC is used to calculate the top-event probability for a fault tree which describes a non-reconfigurable system. PAWS/STEM and SURE are analysis programs which utilize different solution methods, but have a common input language, the SURE language. ASSIST is a preprocessor that generates SURE language from a more abstract definition. ASSIST, SURE, and PAWS/STEM are described briefly in the following paragraphs. For additional details about the individual packages, including pricing, please refer to their respective abstracts. ASSIST, the Abstract Semi-Markov Specification Interface to the SURE Tool program, allows a reliability engineer to describe the failure behavior of a fault-tolerant computer system in an abstract, high-level language. The ASSIST program then automatically generates a corresponding semi-Markov model. A one-page ASSIST-language description may result in a semi-Markov model with thousands of states and transitions. The ASSIST program also includes model-reduction techniques to facilitate efficient modeling of large systems. The semi-Markov model generated by ASSIST is in the format needed for input to SURE and PAWS/STEM. The Semi-Markov Unreliability Range Evaluator, SURE, is an analysis tool for reconfigurable, fault-tolerant systems. SURE provides an efficient means for calculating accurate upper and lower bounds for the death state probabilities for a large class of semi-Markov models, not just those which can be reduced to critical-pair architectures. The calculated bounds are close enough (usually within 5 percent of each other) for use in reliability studies of ultra-reliable computer systems. The SURE bounding theorems have algebraic solutions and are consequently computationally efficient even for large and complex systems. SURE can optionally regard a specified parameter as a variable over a range of values, enabling an automatic sensitivity analysis. SURE output is tabular. The PAWS/STEM package includes two programs for the creation and evaluation of pure Markov models describing the behavior of fault-tolerant reconfigurable computer systems: the Pade Approximation with Scaling (PAWS) and Scaled Taylor Exponential Matrix (STEM) programs. PAWS and STEM produce exact solutions for the probability of system failure and provide a conservative estimate of the number of significant digits in the solution. Markov models of fault-tolerant architectures inevitably lead to numerically stiff differential equations. Both PAWS and STEM have the capability to solve numerically stiff models. These complementary programs use separate methods to determine the matrix exponential in the solution of the model's system of differential equations. In general, PAWS is better suited to evaluate small and dense models. STEM operates at lower precision, but works faster than PAWS for larger models. The programs that comprise the SARA package were originally developed for use on DEC VAX series computers running VMS and were later ported for use on Sun series computers running SunOS. They are written in C-language, Pascal, and FORTRAN 77. An ANSI compliant C compiler is required in order to compile the C portion of the Sun version source code. The Pascal and FORTRAN code can be compiled on Sun computers using Sun Pascal and Sun Fortran. For the VMS version, VAX C, VAX PASCAL, and VAX FORTRAN can be used to recompile the source code. The standard distribution medium for the VMS version of SARA (COS-10041) is a 9-track 1600 BPI magnetic tape in VMSINSTAL format. It is also available on a TK50 tape cartridge in VMSINSTAL format. Executables are included. The standard distribution medium for the Sun version of SARA (COS-10039) is a .25 inch streaming magnetic tape cartridge in UNIX tar format. Both Sun3 and Sun4 executables are included. Electronic copies of the ASSIST user's manual in TeX and PostScript formats are provided on the distribution medium. DEC, VAX, VMS, and TK50 are registered trademarks of Digital Equipment Corporation. Sun, Sun3, Sun4, and SunOS are trademarks of Sun Microsystems, Inc. TeX is a trademark of the American Mathematical Society. PostScript is a registered trademark of Adobe Systems Incorporated.

SARA - SURE/ASSIST RELIABILITY ANALYSIS WORKSTATION (UNIX VERSION)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Butler, R. W.

1994-01-01

SARA, the SURE/ASSIST Reliability Analysis Workstation, is a bundle of programs used to solve reliability problems. The mathematical approach chosen to solve a reliability problem may vary with the size and nature of the problem. The Systems Validation Methods group at NASA Langley Research Center has created a set of four software packages that form the basis for a reliability analysis workstation, including three for use in analyzing reconfigurable, fault-tolerant systems and one for analyzing non-reconfigurable systems. The SARA bundle includes the three for reconfigurable, fault-tolerant systems: SURE reliability analysis program (COSMIC program LAR-13789, LAR-14921); the ASSIST specification interface program (LAR-14193, LAR-14923), and PAWS/STEM reliability analysis programs (LAR-14165, LAR-14920). As indicated by the program numbers in parentheses, each of these three packages is also available separately in two machine versions. The fourth package, which is only available separately, is FTC, the Fault Tree Compiler (LAR-14586, LAR-14922). FTC is used to calculate the top-event probability for a fault tree which describes a non-reconfigurable system. PAWS/STEM and SURE are analysis programs which utilize different solution methods, but have a common input language, the SURE language. ASSIST is a preprocessor that generates SURE language from a more abstract definition. ASSIST, SURE, and PAWS/STEM are described briefly in the following paragraphs. For additional details about the individual packages, including pricing, please refer to their respective abstracts. ASSIST, the Abstract Semi-Markov Specification Interface to the SURE Tool program, allows a reliability engineer to describe the failure behavior of a fault-tolerant computer system in an abstract, high-level language. The ASSIST program then automatically generates a corresponding semi-Markov model. A one-page ASSIST-language description may result in a semi-Markov model with thousands of states and transitions. The ASSIST program also includes model-reduction techniques to facilitate efficient modeling of large systems. The semi-Markov model generated by ASSIST is in the format needed for input to SURE and PAWS/STEM. The Semi-Markov Unreliability Range Evaluator, SURE, is an analysis tool for reconfigurable, fault-tolerant systems. SURE provides an efficient means for calculating accurate upper and lower bounds for the death state probabilities for a large class of semi-Markov models, not just those which can be reduced to critical-pair architectures. The calculated bounds are close enough (usually within 5 percent of each other) for use in reliability studies of ultra-reliable computer systems. The SURE bounding theorems have algebraic solutions and are consequently computationally efficient even for large and complex systems. SURE can optionally regard a specified parameter as a variable over a range of values, enabling an automatic sensitivity analysis. SURE output is tabular. The PAWS/STEM package includes two programs for the creation and evaluation of pure Markov models describing the behavior of fault-tolerant reconfigurable computer systems: the Pade Approximation with Scaling (PAWS) and Scaled Taylor Exponential Matrix (STEM) programs. PAWS and STEM produce exact solutions for the probability of system failure and provide a conservative estimate of the number of significant digits in the solution. Markov models of fault-tolerant architectures inevitably lead to numerically stiff differential equations. Both PAWS and STEM have the capability to solve numerically stiff models. These complementary programs use separate methods to determine the matrix exponential in the solution of the model's system of differential equations. In general, PAWS is better suited to evaluate small and dense models. STEM operates at lower precision, but works faster than PAWS for larger models. The programs that comprise the SARA package were originally developed for use on DEC VAX series computers running VMS and were later ported for use on Sun series computers running SunOS. They are written in C-language, Pascal, and FORTRAN 77. An ANSI compliant C compiler is required in order to compile the C portion of the Sun version source code. The Pascal and FORTRAN code can be compiled on Sun computers using Sun Pascal and Sun Fortran. For the VMS version, VAX C, VAX PASCAL, and VAX FORTRAN can be used to recompile the source code. The standard distribution medium for the VMS version of SARA (COS-10041) is a 9-track 1600 BPI magnetic tape in VMSINSTAL format. It is also available on a TK50 tape cartridge in VMSINSTAL format. Executables are included. The standard distribution medium for the Sun version of SARA (COS-10039) is a .25 inch streaming magnetic tape cartridge in UNIX tar format. Both Sun3 and Sun4 executables are included. Electronic copies of the ASSIST user's manual in TeX and PostScript formats are provided on the distribution medium. DEC, VAX, VMS, and TK50 are registered trademarks of Digital Equipment Corporation. Sun, Sun3, Sun4, and SunOS are trademarks of Sun Microsystems, Inc. TeX is a trademark of the American Mathematical Society. PostScript is a registered trademark of Adobe Systems Incorporated.

Modeling and experimental characterization of electromigration in interconnect trees

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, C. V.; Hau-Riege, S. P.; Andleigh, V. K.

1999-11-01

Most modeling and experimental characterization of interconnect reliability is focussed on simple straight lines terminating at pads or vias. However, laid-out integrated circuits often have interconnects with junctions and wide-to-narrow transitions. In carrying out circuit-level reliability assessments it is important to be able to assess the reliability of these more complex shapes, generally referred to as `trees.' An interconnect tree consists of continuously connected high-conductivity metal within one layer of metallization. Trees terminate at diffusion barriers at vias and contacts, and, in the general case, can have more than one terminating branch when they include junctions. We have extended the understanding of `immortality' demonstrated and analyzed for straight stud-to-stud lines, to trees of arbitrary complexity. This leads to a hierarchical approach for identifying immortal trees for specific circuit layouts and models for operation. To complete a circuit-level-reliability analysis, it is also necessary to estimate the lifetimes of the mortal trees. We have developed simulation tools that allow modeling of stress evolution and failure in arbitrarily complex trees. We are testing our models and simulations through comparisons with experiments on simple trees, such as lines broken into two segments with different currents in each segment. Models, simulations and early experimental results on the reliability of interconnect trees are shown to be consistent.

Exploring the measurement properties of the osteopathy clinical teaching questionnaire using Rasch analysis.

PubMed

Vaughan, Brett

2018-01-01

Clinical teaching evaluations are common in health profession education programs to ensure students are receiving a quality clinical education experience. Questionnaires students use to evaluate their clinical teachers have been developed in professions such as medicine and nursing. The development of a questionnaire that is specifically for the osteopathy on-campus, student-led clinic environment is warranted. Previous work developed the 30-item Osteopathy Clinical Teaching Questionnaire. The current study utilised Rasch analysis to investigate the construct validity of the Osteopathy Clinical Teaching Questionnaire and provide evidence for the validity argument through fit to the Rasch model. Senior osteopathy students at four institutions in Australia, New Zealand and the United Kingdom rated their clinical teachers using the Osteopathy Clinical Teaching Questionnaire. Three hundred and ninety-nine valid responses were received and the data were evaluated for fit to the Rasch model. Reliability estimations (Cronbach's alpha and McDonald's omega) were also evaluated for the final model. The initial analysis demonstrated the data did not fit the Rasch model. Accordingly, modifications to the questionnaire were made including removing items, removing person responses, and rescoring one item. The final model contained 12 items and fit to the Rasch model was adequate. Support for unidimensionality was demonstrated through both the Principal Components Analysis/t-test, and the Cronbach's alpha and McDonald's omega reliability estimates. Analysis of the questionnaire using McDonald's omega hierarchical supported a general factor (quality of clinical teaching in osteopathy). The evidence for unidimensionality and the presence of a general factor support the calculation of a total score for the questionnaire as a sufficient statistic. Further work is now required to investigate the reliability of the 12-item Osteopathy Clinical Teaching Questionnaire to provide evidence for the validity argument.

Characterising the reproducibility and reliability of dietary patterns among Yup'ik Alaska Native people.

PubMed

Ryman, Tove K; Boyer, Bert B; Hopkins, Scarlett; Philip, Jacques; O'Brien, Diane; Thummel, Kenneth; Austin, Melissa A

2015-02-28

FFQ data can be used to characterise dietary patterns for diet-disease association studies. In the present study, we evaluated three previously defined dietary patterns--'subsistence foods', market-based 'processed foods' and 'fruits and vegetables'--among a sample of Yup'ik people from Southwest Alaska. We tested the reproducibility and reliability of the dietary patterns, as well as the associations of these patterns with dietary biomarkers and participant characteristics. We analysed data from adult study participants who completed at least one FFQ with the Center for Alaska Native Health Research 9/2009-5/2013. To test the reproducibility of the dietary patterns, we conducted a confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) of a hypothesised model using eighteen food items to measure the dietary patterns (n 272). To test the reliability of the dietary patterns, we used the CFA to measure composite reliability (n 272) and intra-class correlation coefficients for test-retest reliability (n 113). Finally, to test the associations, we used linear regression (n 637). All factor loadings, except one, in CFA indicated acceptable correlations between foods and dietary patterns (r>0·40), and model-fit criteria were >0·90. Composite and test-retest reliability of the dietary patterns were, respectively, 0·56 and 0·34 for 'subsistence foods', 0·73 and 0·66 for 'processed foods', and 0·72 and 0·54 for 'fruits and vegetables'. In the multi-predictor analysis, the dietary patterns were significantly associated with dietary biomarkers, community location, age, sex and self-reported lifestyle. This analysis confirmed the reproducibility and reliability of the dietary patterns in the present study population. These dietary patterns can be used for future research and development of dietary interventions in this underserved population.

Characterizing the Reproducibility and Reliability of Dietary Patterns among Yup’ik Alaska Native People

PubMed Central

Ryman, Tove K.; Boyer, Bert B.; Hopkins, Scarlett; Philip, Jacques; O’Brien, Diane; Thummel, Kenneth; Austin, Melissa A.

2015-01-01

Food frequency questionnaire (FFQ) data can be used to characterize dietary patterns for diet-disease association studies. Among a sample of Yup’ik people from Southwest Alaska, we evaluated three previously defined dietary patterns: “subsistence foods” and market-based “processed foods” and “fruits and vegetables”. We tested the reproducibility and reliability of the dietary patterns and tested associations of the patterns with dietary biomarkers and participant characteristics. We analyzed data from adult study participants who completed at least one FFQ with the Center for Alaska Native Health Research 9/2009–5/2013. To test reproducibility we conducted a confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) of a hypothesized model using 18 foods to measure the dietary patterns (n=272). To test the reliability of the dietary patterns, we used CFA to measure the composite reliability (n=272) and intraclass correlation coefficients for test-retest reliability (n=113). Finally, to test associations we used linear regression (n=637). All CFA factor loadings, except one, indicated acceptable correlations between foods and dietary patterns (r > 0.40) and model fit criteria were greater than 0.90. Composite and test-retest reliability of dietary patterns were respectively 0.56 and 0.34 for subsistence foods, 0.73 and 0.66 for processed foods, and 0.72 and 0.54 for fruits and vegetables. In the multi-predictor analysis, dietary patterns were significantly associated with dietary biomarkers, community location, age, sex, and self-reported lifestyle. This analysis confirmed the reproducibility and reliability of the dietary patterns in this study population. These dietary patterns can be used for future research and development of dietary interventions in this underserved population. PMID:25656871

Probabilistic Analysis of a Composite Crew Module

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mason, Brian H.; Krishnamurthy, Thiagarajan

2011-01-01

An approach for conducting reliability-based analysis (RBA) of a Composite Crew Module (CCM) is presented. The goal is to identify and quantify the benefits of probabilistic design methods for the CCM and future space vehicles. The coarse finite element model from a previous NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) project is used as the baseline deterministic analysis model to evaluate the performance of the CCM using a strength-based failure index. The first step in the probabilistic analysis process is the determination of the uncertainty distributions for key parameters in the model. Analytical data from water landing simulations are used to develop an uncertainty distribution, but such data were unavailable for other load cases. The uncertainty distributions for the other load scale factors and the strength allowables are generated based on assumed coefficients of variation. Probability of first-ply failure is estimated using three methods: the first order reliability method (FORM), Monte Carlo simulation, and conditional sampling. Results for the three methods were consistent. The reliability is shown to be driven by first ply failure in one region of the CCM at the high altitude abort load set. The final predicted probability of failure is on the order of 10-11 due to the conservative nature of the factors of safety on the deterministic loads.

The reliability analysis of a separated, dual fail operational redundant strapdown IMU. [inertial measurement unit

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Motyka, P.

1983-01-01

A methodology for quantitatively analyzing the reliability of redundant avionics systems, in general, and the dual, separated Redundant Strapdown Inertial Measurement Unit (RSDIMU), in particular, is presented. The RSDIMU is described and a candidate failure detection and isolation system presented. A Markov reliability model is employed. The operational states of the system are defined and the single-step state transition diagrams discussed. Graphical results, showing the impact of major system parameters on the reliability of the RSDIMU system, are presented and discussed.

Orbiter Autoland reliability analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Welch, D. Phillip

1993-01-01

The Space Shuttle Orbiter is the only space reentry vehicle in which the crew is seated upright. This position presents some physiological effects requiring countermeasures to prevent a crewmember from becoming incapacitated. This also introduces a potential need for automated vehicle landing capability. Autoland is a primary procedure that was identified as a requirement for landing following and extended duration orbiter mission. This report documents the results of the reliability analysis performed on the hardware required for an automated landing. A reliability block diagram was used to evaluate system reliability. The analysis considers the manual and automated landing modes currently available on the Orbiter. (Autoland is presently a backup system only.) Results of this study indicate a +/- 36 percent probability of successfully extending a nominal mission to 30 days. Enough variations were evaluated to verify that the reliability could be altered with missions planning and procedures. If the crew is modeled as being fully capable after 30 days, the probability of a successful manual landing is comparable to that of Autoland because much of the hardware is used for both manual and automated landing modes. The analysis indicates that the reliability for the manual mode is limited by the hardware and depends greatly on crew capability. Crew capability for a successful landing after 30 days has not been determined yet.

CRAX/Cassandra Reliability Analysis Software

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Robinson, D.

1999-02-10

Over the past few years Sandia National Laboratories has been moving toward an increased dependence on model- or physics-based analyses as a means to assess the impact of long-term storage on the nuclear weapons stockpile. These deterministic models have also been used to evaluate replacements for aging systems, often involving commercial off-the-shelf components (COTS). In addition, the models have been used to assess the performance of replacement components manufactured via unique, small-lot production runs. In either case, the limited amount of available test data dictates that the only logical course of action to characterize the reliability of these components ismore » to specifically consider the uncertainties in material properties, operating environment etc. within the physics-based (deterministic) model. This not only provides the ability to statistically characterize the expected performance of the component or system, but also provides direction regarding the benefits of additional testing on specific components within the system. An effort was therefore initiated to evaluate the capabilities of existing probabilistic methods and, if required, to develop new analysis methods to support the inclusion of uncertainty in the classical design tools used by analysts and design engineers at Sandia. The primary result of this effort is the CMX (Cassandra Exoskeleton) reliability analysis software.« less

The SURE reliability analysis program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Butler, R. W.

1986-01-01

The SURE program is a new reliability tool for ultrareliable computer system architectures. The program is based on computational methods recently developed for the NASA Langley Research Center. These methods provide an efficient means for computing accurate upper and lower bounds for the death state probabilities of a large class of semi-Markov models. Once a semi-Markov model is described using a simple input language, the SURE program automatically computes the upper and lower bounds on the probability of system failure. A parameter of the model can be specified as a variable over a range of values directing the SURE program to perform a sensitivity analysis automatically. This feature, along with the speed of the program, makes it especially useful as a design tool.

Scaled CMOS Technology Reliability Users Guide

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

White, Mark

2010-01-01

The desire to assess the reliability of emerging scaled microelectronics technologies through faster reliability trials and more accurate acceleration models is the precursor for further research and experimentation in this relevant field. The effect of semiconductor scaling on microelectronics product reliability is an important aspect to the high reliability application user. From the perspective of a customer or user, who in many cases must deal with very limited, if any, manufacturer's reliability data to assess the product for a highly-reliable application, product-level testing is critical in the characterization and reliability assessment of advanced nanometer semiconductor scaling effects on microelectronics reliability. A methodology on how to accomplish this and techniques for deriving the expected product-level reliability on commercial memory products are provided.Competing mechanism theory and the multiple failure mechanism model are applied to the experimental results of scaled SDRAM products. Accelerated stress testing at multiple conditions is applied at the product level of several scaled memory products to assess the performance degradation and product reliability. Acceleration models are derived for each case. For several scaled SDRAM products, retention time degradation is studied and two distinct soft error populations are observed with each technology generation: early breakdown, characterized by randomly distributed weak bits with Weibull slope (beta)=1, and a main population breakdown with an increasing failure rate. Retention time soft error rates are calculated and a multiple failure mechanism acceleration model with parameters is derived for each technology. Defect densities are calculated and reflect a decreasing trend in the percentage of random defective bits for each successive product generation. A normalized soft error failure rate of the memory data retention time in FIT/Gb and FIT/cm2 for several scaled SDRAM generations is presented revealing a power relationship. General models describing the soft error rates across scaled product generations are presented. The analysis methodology may be applied to other scaled microelectronic products and their key parameters.

A Comparison of Three Methods for the Analysis of Skin Flap Viability: Reliability and Validity.

PubMed

Tim, Carla Roberta; Martignago, Cintia Cristina Santi; da Silva, Viviane Ribeiro; Dos Santos, Estefany Camila Bonfim; Vieira, Fabiana Nascimento; Parizotto, Nivaldo Antonio; Liebano, Richard Eloin

2018-05-01

Objective: Technological advances have provided new alternatives to the analysis of skin flap viability in animal models; however, the interrater validity and reliability of these techniques have yet to be analyzed. The present study aimed to evaluate the interrater validity and reliability of three different methods: weight of paper template (WPT), paper template area (PTA), and photographic analysis. Approach: Sixteen male Wistar rats had their cranially based dorsal skin flap elevated. On the seventh postoperative day, the viable tissue area and the necrotic area of the skin flap were recorded using the paper template method and photo image. The evaluation of the percentage of viable tissue was performed using three methods, simultaneously and independently by two raters. The analysis of interrater reliability and viability was performed using the intraclass correlation coefficient and Bland Altman Plot Analysis was used to visualize the presence or absence of systematic bias in the evaluations of data validity. Results: The results showed that interrater reliability for WPT, measurement of PTA, and photographic analysis were 0.995, 0.990, and 0.982, respectively. For data validity, a correlation >0.90 was observed for all comparisons made between the three methods. In addition, Bland Altman Plot Analysis showed agreement between the comparisons of the methods and the presence of systematic bias was not observed. Innovation: Digital methods are an excellent choice for assessing skin flap viability; moreover, they make data use and storage easier. Conclusion: Independently from the method used, the interrater reliability and validity proved to be excellent for the analysis of skin flaps' viability.

Comparison of Two Global Sensitivity Analysis Methods for Hydrologic Modeling over the Columbia River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hameed, M.; Demirel, M. C.; Moradkhani, H.

2015-12-01

Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) approach helps identify the effectiveness of model parameters or inputs and thus provides essential information about the model performance. In this study, the effects of the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting (SAC-SMA) model parameters, forcing data, and initial conditions are analysed by using two GSA methods: Sobol' and Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test (FAST). The simulations are carried out over five sub-basins within the Columbia River Basin (CRB) for three different periods: one-year, four-year, and seven-year. Four factors are considered and evaluated by using the two sensitivity analysis methods: the simulation length, parameter range, model initial conditions, and the reliability of the global sensitivity analysis methods. The reliability of the sensitivity analysis results is compared based on 1) the agreement between the two sensitivity analysis methods (Sobol' and FAST) in terms of highlighting the same parameters or input as the most influential parameters or input and 2) how the methods are cohered in ranking these sensitive parameters under the same conditions (sub-basins and simulation length). The results show the coherence between the Sobol' and FAST sensitivity analysis methods. Additionally, it is found that FAST method is sufficient to evaluate the main effects of the model parameters and inputs. Another conclusion of this study is that the smaller parameter or initial condition ranges, the more consistency and coherence between the sensitivity analysis methods results.

European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer Quality of Life Questionnaire Core 30: factorial models to Brazilian cancer patients

PubMed Central

Campos, Juliana Alvares Duarte Bonini; Spexoto, Maria Cláudia Bernardes; da Silva, Wanderson Roberto; Serrano, Sergio Vicente; Marôco, João

2018-01-01

ABSTRACT Objective To evaluate the psychometric properties of the seven theoretical models proposed in the literature for European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer Quality of Life Questionnaire Core 30 (EORTC QLQ-C30), when applied to a sample of Brazilian cancer patients. Methods Content and construct validity (factorial, convergent, discriminant) were estimated. Confirmatory factor analysis was performed. Convergent validity was analyzed using the average variance extracted. Discriminant validity was analyzed using correlational analysis. Internal consistency and composite reliability were used to assess the reliability of instrument. Results A total of 1,020 cancer patients participated. The mean age was 53.3±13.0 years, and 62% were female. All models showed adequate factorial validity for the study sample. Convergent and discriminant validities and the reliability were compromised in all of the models for all of the single items referring to symptoms, as well as for the “physical function” and “cognitive function” factors. Conclusion All theoretical models assessed in this study presented adequate factorial validity when applied to Brazilian cancer patients. The choice of the best model for use in research and/or clinical protocols should be centered on the purpose and underlying theory of each model. PMID:29694609

An improved spanning tree approach for the reliability analysis of supply chain collaborative network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lam, C. Y.; Ip, W. H.

2012-11-01

A higher degree of reliability in the collaborative network can increase the competitiveness and performance of an entire supply chain. As supply chain networks grow more complex, the consequences of unreliable behaviour become increasingly severe in terms of cost, effort and time. Moreover, it is computationally difficult to calculate the network reliability of a Non-deterministic Polynomial-time hard (NP-hard) all-terminal network using state enumeration, as this may require a huge number of iterations for topology optimisation. Therefore, this paper proposes an alternative approach of an improved spanning tree for reliability analysis to help effectively evaluate and analyse the reliability of collaborative networks in supply chains and reduce the comparative computational complexity of algorithms. Set theory is employed to evaluate and model the all-terminal reliability of the improved spanning tree algorithm and present a case study of a supply chain used in lamp production to illustrate the application of the proposed approach.

Reliability Technology to Achieve Insertion of Advanced Packaging (RELTECH) program

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fayette, Daniel F.; Speicher, Patricia; Stoklosa, Mark J.; Evans, Jillian V.; Evans, John W.; Gentile, Mike; Pagel, Chuck A.; Hakim, Edward

1993-08-01

A joint military-commercial effort to evaluate multichip module (MCM) structures is discussed. The program, Reliability Technology to Achieve Insertion of Advanced Packaging (RELTECH), has been designed to identify the failure mechanisms that are possible in MCM structures. The RELTECH test vehicles, technical assessment task, product evaluation plan, reliability modeling task, accelerated and environmental testing, and post-test physical analysis and failure analysis are described. The information obtained through RELTECH can be used to address standardization issues, through development of cost effective qualification and appropriate screening criteria, for inclusion into a commercial specification and the MIL-H-38534 general specification for hybrid microcircuits.

Reliability Technology to Achieve Insertion of Advanced Packaging (RELTECH) program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fayette, Daniel F.; Speicher, Patricia; Stoklosa, Mark J.; Evans, Jillian V.; Evans, John W.; Gentile, Mike; Pagel, Chuck A.; Hakim, Edward

1993-01-01

A joint military-commercial effort to evaluate multichip module (MCM) structures is discussed. The program, Reliability Technology to Achieve Insertion of Advanced Packaging (RELTECH), has been designed to identify the failure mechanisms that are possible in MCM structures. The RELTECH test vehicles, technical assessment task, product evaluation plan, reliability modeling task, accelerated and environmental testing, and post-test physical analysis and failure analysis are described. The information obtained through RELTECH can be used to address standardization issues, through development of cost effective qualification and appropriate screening criteria, for inclusion into a commercial specification and the MIL-H-38534 general specification for hybrid microcircuits.

Learning from Trending, Precursor Analysis, and System Failures

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Youngblood, R. W.; Duffey, R. B.

2015-11-01

Models of reliability growth relate current system unreliability to currently accumulated experience. But “experience” comes in different forms. Looking back after a major accident, one is sometimes able to identify previous events or measurable performance trends that were, in some sense, signaling the potential for that major accident: potential that could have been recognized and acted upon, but was not recognized until the accident occurred. This could be a previously unrecognized cause of accidents, or underestimation of the likelihood that a recognized potential cause would actually operate. Despite improvements in the state of practice of modeling of risk and reliability,more » operational experience still has a great deal to teach us, and work has been going on in several industries to try to do a better job of learning from experience before major accidents occur. It is not enough to say that we should review operating experience; there is too much “experience” for such general advice to be considered practical. The paper discusses the following: 1. The challenge of deciding what to focus on in analysis of operating experience. 2. Comparing what different models of learning and reliability growth imply about trending and precursor analysis.« less

Perceived experiences of atheist discrimination: Instrument development and evaluation.

PubMed

Brewster, Melanie E; Hammer, Joseph; Sawyer, Jacob S; Eklund, Austin; Palamar, Joseph

2016-10-01

The present 2 studies describe the development and initial psychometric evaluation of a new instrument, the Measure of Atheist Discrimination Experiences (MADE), which may be used to examine the minority stress experiences of atheist people. Items were created from prior literature, revised by a panel of expert researchers, and assessed psychometrically. In Study 1 (N = 1,341 atheist-identified people), an exploratory factor analysis with 665 participants suggested the presence of 5 related dimensions of perceived discrimination. However, bifactor modeling via confirmatory factor analysis and model-based reliability estimates with data from the remaining 676 participants affirmed the presence of a strong "general" factor of discrimination and mixed to poor support for substantive subdimensions. In Study 2 (N = 1,057 atheist-identified people), another confirmatory factor analysis and model-based reliability estimates strongly supported the bifactor model from Study 1 (i.e., 1 strong "general" discrimination factor) and poor support for subdimensions. Across both studies, the MADE general factor score demonstrated evidence of good reliability (i.e., Cronbach's alphas of .94 and .95; omega hierarchical coefficients of .90 and .92), convergent validity (i.e., with stigma consciousness, β = .56; with awareness of public devaluation, β = .37), and preliminary evidence for concurrent validity (i.e., with loneliness β = .18; with psychological distress β = .27). Reliability and validity evidence for the MADE subscale scores was not sufficient to warrant future use of the subscales. Limitations and implications for future research and clinical work with atheist individuals are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rabiti, Cristian; Alfonsi, Andrea; Huang, Dongli

This report collect the effort performed to improve the reliability analysis capabilities of the RAVEN code and explore new opportunity in the usage of surrogate model by extending the current RAVEN capabilities to multi physics surrogate models and construction of surrogate models for high dimensionality fields.

Advanced techniques in reliability model representation and solution

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Palumbo, Daniel L.; Nicol, David M.

1992-01-01

The current tendency of flight control system designs is towards increased integration of applications and increased distribution of computational elements. The reliability analysis of such systems is difficult because subsystem interactions are increasingly interdependent. Researchers at NASA Langley Research Center have been working for several years to extend the capability of Markov modeling techniques to address these problems. This effort has been focused in the areas of increased model abstraction and increased computational capability. The reliability model generator (RMG) is a software tool that uses as input a graphical object-oriented block diagram of the system. RMG uses a failure-effects algorithm to produce the reliability model from the graphical description. The ASSURE software tool is a parallel processing program that uses the semi-Markov unreliability range evaluator (SURE) solution technique and the abstract semi-Markov specification interface to the SURE tool (ASSIST) modeling language. A failure modes-effects simulation is used by ASSURE. These tools were used to analyze a significant portion of a complex flight control system. The successful combination of the power of graphical representation, automated model generation, and parallel computation leads to the conclusion that distributed fault-tolerant system architectures can now be analyzed.

Reliability Analysis of Uniaxially Ground Brittle Materials

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Salem, Jonathan A.; Nemeth, Noel N.; Powers, Lynn M.; Choi, Sung R.

1995-01-01

The fast fracture strength distribution of uniaxially ground, alpha silicon carbide was investigated as a function of grinding angle relative to the principal stress direction in flexure. Both as-ground and ground/annealed surfaces were investigated. The resulting flexural strength distributions were used to verify reliability models and predict the strength distribution of larger plate specimens tested in biaxial flexure. Complete fractography was done on the specimens. Failures occurred from agglomerates, machining cracks, or hybrid flaws that consisted of a machining crack located at a processing agglomerate. Annealing eliminated failures due to machining damage. Reliability analyses were performed using two and three parameter Weibull and Batdorf methodologies. The Weibull size effect was demonstrated for machining flaws. Mixed mode reliability models reasonably predicted the strength distributions of uniaxial flexure and biaxial plate specimens.

CARES/LIFE Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures Life Prediction Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nemeth, Noel N.; Powers, Lynn M.; Janosik, Lesley A.; Gyekenyesi, John P.

2003-01-01

This manual describes the Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures Life Prediction (CARES/LIFE) computer program. The program calculates the time-dependent reliability of monolithic ceramic components subjected to thermomechanical and/or proof test loading. CARES/LIFE is an extension of the CARES (Ceramic Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures) computer program. The program uses results from MSC/NASTRAN, ABAQUS, and ANSYS finite element analysis programs to evaluate component reliability due to inherent surface and/or volume type flaws. CARES/LIFE accounts for the phenomenon of subcritical crack growth (SCG) by utilizing the power law, Paris law, or Walker law. The two-parameter Weibull cumulative distribution function is used to characterize the variation in component strength. The effects of multiaxial stresses are modeled by using either the principle of independent action (PIA), the Weibull normal stress averaging method (NSA), or the Batdorf theory. Inert strength and fatigue parameters are estimated from rupture strength data of naturally flawed specimens loaded in static, dynamic, or cyclic fatigue. The probabilistic time-dependent theories used in CARES/LIFE, along with the input and output for CARES/LIFE, are described. Example problems to demonstrate various features of the program are also included.

Rasch Analysis of the General Self-Efficacy Scale in Workers with Traumatic Limb Injuries.

PubMed

Wu, Tzu-Yi; Yu, Wan-Hui; Huang, Chien-Yu; Hou, Wen-Hsuan; Hsieh, Ching-Lin

2016-09-01

Purpose The purpose of this study was to apply Rasch analysis to examine the unidimensionality and reliability of the General Self-Efficacy Scale (GSE) in workers with traumatic limb injuries. Furthermore, if the items of the GSE fitted the Rasch model's assumptions, we transformed the raw sum ordinal scores of the GSE into Rasch interval scores. Methods A total of 1076 participants completed the GSE at 1 month post injury. Rasch analysis was used to examine the unidimensionality and person reliability of the GSE. The unidimensionality of the GSE was verified by determining whether the items fit the Rasch model's assumptions: (1) item fit indices: infit and outfit mean square (MNSQ) ranged from 0.6 to 1.4; and (2) the eigenvalue of the first factor extracted from principal component analysis (PCA) for residuals was <2. Person reliability was calculated. Results The unidimensionality of the 10-item GSE was supported in terms of good item fit statistics (infit and outfit MNSQ ranging from 0.92 to 1.32) and acceptable eigenvalues (1.6) of the first factor of the PCA, with person reliability = 0.89. Consequently, the raw sum scores of the GSE were transformed into Rasch scores. Conclusions The results indicated that the items of GSE are unidimensional and have acceptable person reliability in workers with traumatic limb injuries. Additionally, the raw sum scores of the GSE can be transformed into Rasch interval scores for prospective users to quantify workers' levels of self-efficacy and to conduct further statistical analyses.

Reliable and More Powerful Methods for Power Analysis in Structural Equation Modeling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yuan, Ke-Hai; Zhang, Zhiyong; Zhao, Yanyun

2017-01-01

The normal-distribution-based likelihood ratio statistic T[subscript ml] = nF[subscript ml] is widely used for power analysis in structural Equation modeling (SEM). In such an analysis, power and sample size are computed by assuming that T[subscript ml] follows a central chi-square distribution under H[subscript 0] and a noncentral chi-square…

System principles, mathematical models and methods to ensure high reliability of safety systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaslavskyi, V.

2017-04-01

Modern safety and security systems are composed of a large number of various components designed for detection, localization, tracking, collecting, and processing of information from the systems of monitoring, telemetry, control, etc. They are required to be highly reliable in a view to correctly perform data aggregation, processing and analysis for subsequent decision making support. On design and construction phases of the manufacturing of such systems a various types of components (elements, devices, and subsystems) are considered and used to ensure high reliability of signals detection, noise isolation, and erroneous commands reduction. When generating design solutions for highly reliable systems a number of restrictions and conditions such as types of components and various constrains on resources should be considered. Various types of components perform identical functions; however, they are implemented using diverse principles, approaches and have distinct technical and economic indicators such as cost or power consumption. The systematic use of different component types increases the probability of tasks performing and eliminates the common cause failure. We consider type-variety principle as an engineering principle of system analysis, mathematical models based on this principle, and algorithms for solving optimization problems of highly reliable safety and security systems design. Mathematical models are formalized in a class of two-level discrete optimization problems of large dimension. The proposed approach, mathematical models, algorithms can be used for problem solving of optimal redundancy on the basis of a variety of methods and control devices for fault and defects detection in technical systems, telecommunication networks, and energy systems.

78 FR 45447 - Revisions to Modeling, Data, and Analysis Reliability Standard

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-07-29

... service agreements.'' NERC, Glossary of Terms Used in NERC Reliability Standards 64 (2011), http://www.nerc.com/files/Glossary_of_Terms.pdf . We also use the term ``transmission operator'' in this final... here is also subject to review under section 3507(d) of the Paperwork Reduction Act of 1995.\\25\\ \\24\\ 5...

Review on the Modeling of Electrostatic MEMS

PubMed Central

Chuang, Wan-Chun; Lee, Hsin-Li; Chang, Pei-Zen; Hu, Yuh-Chung

2010-01-01

Electrostatic-driven microelectromechanical systems devices, in most cases, consist of couplings of such energy domains as electromechanics, optical electricity, thermoelectricity, and electromagnetism. Their nonlinear working state makes their analysis complex and complicated. This article introduces the physical model of pull-in voltage, dynamic characteristic analysis, air damping effect, reliability, numerical modeling method, and application of electrostatic-driven MEMS devices. PMID:22219707

Measuring engagement in nurses: the psychometric properties of the Persian version of Utrecht Work Engagement Scale

PubMed Central

Torabinia, Mansour; Mahmoudi, Sara; Dolatshahi, Mojtaba; Abyaz, Mohamad Reza

2017-01-01

Background: Considering the overall tendency in psychology, researchers in the field of work and organizational psychology have become progressively interested in employees’ effective and optimistic experiments at work such as work engagement. This study was conducted to investigate 2 main purposes: assessing the psychometric properties of the Utrecht Work Engagement Scale, and finding any association between work engagement and burnout in nurses. Methods: The present methodological study was conducted in 2015 and included 248 females and 34 males with 6 months to 30 years of job experience. After the translation process, face and content validity were calculated by qualitative and quantitative methods. Moreover, content validation ratio, scale-level content validity index and item-level content validity index were measured for this scale. Construct validity was determined by factor analysis. Moreover, internal consistency and stability reliability were assessed. Factor analysis, test-retest, Cronbach’s alpha, and association analysis were used as statistical methods. Results: Face and content validity were acceptable. Exploratory factor analysis suggested a new 3- factor model. In this new model, some items from the construct model of the original version were dislocated with the same 17 items. The new model was confirmed by divergent Copenhagen Burnout Inventory as the Persian version of UWES. Internal consistency reliability for the total scale and the subscales was 0.76 to 0.89. Results from Pearson correlation test indicated a high degree of test-retest reliability (r = 0. 89). ICC was also 0.91. Engagement was negatively related to burnout and overtime per month, whereas it was positively related with age and job experiment. Conclusion: The Persian 3– factor model of Utrecht Work Engagement Scale is a valid and reliable instrument to measure work engagement in Iranian nurses as well as in other medical professionals. PMID:28955665

Real-time emergency forecasting technique for situation management systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kopytov, V. V.; Kharechkin, P. V.; Naumenko, V. V.; Tretyak, R. S.; Tebueva, F. B.

2018-05-01

The article describes the real-time emergency forecasting technique that allows increasing accuracy and reliability of forecasting results of any emergency computational model applied for decision making in situation management systems. Computational models are improved by the Improved Brown’s method applying fractal dimension to forecast short time series data being received from sensors and control systems. Reliability of emergency forecasting results is ensured by the invalid sensed data filtering according to the methods of correlation analysis.

Reliability analysis of airship remote sensing system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qin, Jun

1998-08-01

Airship Remote Sensing System (ARSS) for obtain the dynamic or real time images in the remote sensing of the catastrophe and the environment, is a mixed complex system. Its sensor platform is a remote control airship. The achievement of a remote sensing mission depends on a series of factors. For this reason, it is very important for us to analyze reliability of ARSS. In first place, the system model was simplified form multi-stage system to two-state system on the basis of the result of the failure mode and effect analysis and the failure tree failure mode effect and criticality analysis. The failure tree was created after analyzing all factors and their interrelations. This failure tree includes four branches, e.g. engine subsystem, remote control subsystem, airship construction subsystem, flying metrology and climate subsystem. By way of failure tree analysis and basic-events classing, the weak links were discovered. The result of test running shown no difference in comparison with theory analysis. In accordance with the above conclusions, a plan of the reliability growth and reliability maintenance were posed. System's reliability are raised from 89 percent to 92 percent with the reformation of the man-machine interactive interface, the augmentation of the secondary better-groupie and the secondary remote control equipment.

A Synthetic Vision Preliminary Integrated Safety Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hemm, Robert; Houser, Scott

2001-01-01

This report documents efforts to analyze a sample of aviation safety programs, using the LMI-developed integrated safety analysis tool to determine the change in system risk resulting from Aviation Safety Program (AvSP) technology implementation. Specifically, we have worked to modify existing system safety tools to address the safety impact of synthetic vision (SV) technology. Safety metrics include reliability, availability, and resultant hazard. This analysis of SV technology is intended to be part of a larger effort to develop a model that is capable of "providing further support to the product design and development team as additional information becomes available". The reliability analysis portion of the effort is complete and is fully documented in this report. The simulation analysis is still underway; it will be documented in a subsequent report. The specific goal of this effort is to apply the integrated safety analysis to SV technology. This report also contains a brief discussion of data necessary to expand the human performance capability of the model, as well as a discussion of human behavior and its implications for system risk assessment in this modeling environment.

Evaluation of the Williams-type model for barley yields in North Dakota and Minnesota

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barnett, T. L. (Principal Investigator)

1981-01-01

The Williams-type yield model is based on multiple regression analysis of historial time series data at CRD level pooled to regional level (groups of similar CRDs). Basic variables considered in the analysis include USDA yield, monthly mean temperature, monthly precipitation, soil texture and topographic information, and variables derived from these. Technologic trend is represented by piecewise linear and/or quadratic functions of year. Indicators of yield reliability obtained from a ten-year bootstrap test (1970-1979) demonstrate that biases are small and performance based on root mean square appears to be acceptable for the intended AgRISTARS large area applications. The model is objective, adequate, timely, simple, and not costly. It consideres scientific knowledge on a broad scale but not in detail, and does not provide a good current measure of modeled yield reliability.

A Research Roadmap for Computation-Based Human Reliability Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Boring, Ronald; Mandelli, Diego; Joe, Jeffrey

2015-08-01

The United States (U.S.) Department of Energy (DOE) is sponsoring research through the Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program to extend the life of the currently operating fleet of commercial nuclear power plants. The Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) research pathway within LWRS looks at ways to maintain and improve the safety margins of these plants. The RISMC pathway includes significant developments in the area of thermalhydraulics code modeling and the development of tools to facilitate dynamic probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). PRA is primarily concerned with the risk of hardware systems at the plant; yet, hardware reliability is oftenmore » secondary in overall risk significance to human errors that can trigger or compound undesirable events at the plant. This report highlights ongoing efforts to develop a computation-based approach to human reliability analysis (HRA). This computation-based approach differs from existing static and dynamic HRA approaches in that it: (i) interfaces with a dynamic computation engine that includes a full scope plant model, and (ii) interfaces with a PRA software toolset. The computation-based HRA approach presented in this report is called the Human Unimodels for Nuclear Technology to Enhance Reliability (HUNTER) and incorporates in a hybrid fashion elements of existing HRA methods to interface with new computational tools developed under the RISMC pathway. The goal of this research effort is to model human performance more accurately than existing approaches, thereby minimizing modeling uncertainty found in current plant risk models.« less

75 FR 40745 - Cyazofamid; Pesticide Tolerances

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-07-14

... Model/Exposure Analysis Modeling System (PRZM/EXAMS) model for surface water and the Screening... listed in this unit could also be affected. The North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS... there is reliable information.'' This includes exposure through drinking water and in residential...

Reliability Growth in Space Life Support Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jones, Harry W.

2014-01-01

A hardware system's failure rate often increases over time due to wear and aging, but not always. Some systems instead show reliability growth, a decreasing failure rate with time, due to effective failure analysis and remedial hardware upgrades. Reliability grows when failure causes are removed by improved design. A mathematical reliability growth model allows the reliability growth rate to be computed from the failure data. The space shuttle was extensively maintained, refurbished, and upgraded after each flight and it experienced significant reliability growth during its operational life. In contrast, the International Space Station (ISS) is much more difficult to maintain and upgrade and its failure rate has been constant over time. The ISS Carbon Dioxide Removal Assembly (CDRA) reliability has slightly decreased. Failures on ISS and with the ISS CDRA continue to be a challenge.

Population Biology of Schistosoma Mating, Aggregation, and Transmission Breakpoints: More Reliable Model Analysis for the End-Game in Communities at Risk

PubMed Central

Gurarie, David; King, Charles H.

2014-01-01

Mathematical modeling is widely used for predictive analysis of control options for infectious agents. Challenging problems arise for modeling host-parasite systems having complex life-cycles and transmission environments. Macroparasites, like Schistosoma, inhabit highly fragmented habitats that shape their reproductive success and distribution. Overdispersion and mating success are important factors to consider in modeling control options for such systems. Simpler models based on mean worm burden (MWB) formulations do not take these into account and overestimate transmission. Proposed MWB revisions have employed prescribed distributions and mating factor corrections to derive modified MWB models that have qualitatively different equilibria, including ‘breakpoints’ below which the parasite goes to extinction, suggesting the possibility of elimination via long-term mass-treatment control. Despite common use, no one has attempted to validate the scope and hypotheses underlying such MWB approaches. We conducted a systematic analysis of both the classical MWB and more recent “stratified worm burden” (SWB) modeling that accounts for mating and reproductive hurdles (Allee effect). Our analysis reveals some similarities, including breakpoints, between MWB and SWB, but also significant differences between the two types of model. We show the classic MWB has inherent inconsistencies, and propose SWB as a reliable alternative for projection of long-term control outcomes. PMID:25549362

The effect of leverage and/or influential on structure-activity relationships.

PubMed

Bolboacă, Sorana D; Jäntschi, Lorentz

2013-05-01

In the spirit of reporting valid and reliable Quantitative Structure-Activity Relationship (QSAR) models, the aim of our research was to assess how the leverage (analysis with Hat matrix, h(i)) and the influential (analysis with Cook's distance, D(i)) of QSAR models may reflect the models reliability and their characteristics. The datasets included in this research were collected from previously published papers. Seven datasets which accomplished the imposed inclusion criteria were analyzed. Three models were obtained for each dataset (full-model, h(i)-model and D(i)-model) and several statistical validation criteria were applied to the models. In 5 out of 7 sets the correlation coefficient increased when compounds with either h(i) or D(i) higher than the threshold were removed. Withdrawn compounds varied from 2 to 4 for h(i)-models and from 1 to 13 for D(i)-models. Validation statistics showed that D(i)-models possess systematically better agreement than both full-models and h(i)-models. Removal of influential compounds from training set significantly improves the model and is recommended to be conducted in the process of quantitative structure-activity relationships developing. Cook's distance approach should be combined with hat matrix analysis in order to identify the compounds candidates for removal.

Electric system restructuring and system reliability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horiuchi, Catherine Miller

In 1996 the California legislature passed AB 1890, explicitly defining economic benefits and detailing specific mechanisms for initiating a partial restructuring the state's electric system. Critics have since sought re-regulation and proponents have asked for patience as the new institutions and markets take shape. Other states' electric system restructuring activities have been tempered by real and perceived problems in the California model. This study examines the reduced regulatory controls and new constraints introduced in California's limited restructuring model using utility and regulatory agency records from the 1990's to investigate effects of new institutions and practices on system reliability for the state's five largest public and private utilities. Logit and negative binomial regressions indicate negative impact from the California model of restructuring on system reliability as measured by customer interruptions. Time series analysis of outage data could not predict the wholesale power market collapse and the subsequent rolling blackouts in early 2001; inclusion of near-outage reliability disturbances---load shedding and energy emergencies---provided a measure of forewarning. Analysis of system disruptions, generation capacity and demand, and the role of purchased power challenge conventional wisdom on the causality of Californian's power problems. The quantitative analysis was supplemented by a targeted survey of electric system restructuring participants. Findings suggest each utility and the organization controlling the state's electric grid provided protection from power outages comparable to pre-restructuring operations through 2000; however, this reliability has come at an inflated cost, resulting in reduced system purchases and decreased marginal protection. The historic margin of operating safety has fully eroded, increasing mandatory load shedding and emergency declarations for voluntary and mandatory conservation. Proposed remedies focused on state-funded contracts and government-managed power authorities may not help, as the findings suggest pricing models, market uncertainty, interjurisdictional conflict and an inability to respond to market perturbations are more significant contributors to reduced regional generation availability than the particular contract mechanisms and funding sources used for power purchases.

Reliability Analysis and Standardization of Spacecraft Command Generation Processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Meshkat, Leila; Grenander, Sven; Evensen, Ken

2011-01-01

center dot In order to reduce commanding errors that are caused by humans, we create an approach and corresponding artifacts for standardizing the command generation process and conducting risk management during the design and assurance of such processes. center dot The literature review conducted during the standardization process revealed that very few atomic level human activities are associated with even a broad set of missions. center dot Applicable human reliability metrics for performing these atomic level tasks are available. center dot The process for building a "Periodic Table" of Command and Control Functions as well as Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) models is demonstrated. center dot The PRA models are executed using data from human reliability data banks. center dot The Periodic Table is related to the PRA models via Fault Links.

Probabilistic Structural Analysis and Reliability Using NESSUS With Implemented Material Strength Degradation Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bast, Callie C.; Jurena, Mark T.; Godines, Cody R.; Chamis, Christos C. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

This project included both research and education objectives. The goal of this project was to advance innovative research and education objectives in theoretical and computational probabilistic structural analysis, reliability, and life prediction for improved reliability and safety of structural components of aerospace and aircraft propulsion systems. Research and education partners included Glenn Research Center (GRC) and Southwest Research Institute (SwRI) along with the University of Texas at San Antonio (UTSA). SwRI enhanced the NESSUS (Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress) code and provided consulting support for NESSUS-related activities at UTSA. NASA funding supported three undergraduate students, two graduate students, a summer course instructor and the Principal Investigator. Matching funds from UTSA provided for the purchase of additional equipment for the enhancement of the Advanced Interactive Computational SGI Lab established during the first year of this Partnership Award to conduct the probabilistic finite element summer courses. The research portion of this report presents the cumulation of work performed through the use of the probabilistic finite element program, NESSUS, Numerical Evaluation and Structures Under Stress, and an embedded Material Strength Degradation (MSD) model. Probabilistic structural analysis provided for quantification of uncertainties associated with the design, thus enabling increased system performance and reliability. The structure examined was a Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) fuel turbopump blade. The blade material analyzed was Inconel 718, since the MSD model was previously calibrated for this material. Reliability analysis encompassing the effects of high temperature and high cycle fatigue, yielded a reliability value of 0.99978 using a fully correlated random field for the blade thickness. The reliability did not change significantly for a change in distribution type except for a change in distribution from Gaussian to Weibull for the centrifugal load. The sensitivity factors determined to be most dominant were the centrifugal loading and the initial strength of the material. These two sensitivity factors were influenced most by a change in distribution type from Gaussian to Weibull. The education portion of this report describes short-term and long-term educational objectives. Such objectives serve to integrate research and education components of this project resulting in opportunities for ethnic minority students, principally Hispanic. The primary vehicle to facilitate such integration was the teaching of two probabilistic finite element method courses to undergraduate engineering students in the summers of 1998 and 1999.

Indonesian teacher engagement index: a rasch model analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sasmoko; Abbas, B. S.; Indrianti, Y.; Widhoyoko, S. A.

2018-01-01

The research aimed to calibrate Indonesian Teacher Engagement Index (ITEI) using instrument with RASCH MODEL. The respondents were 672 teachers of elementary, junior high, high school and vocational school. The number of items planned was 165 items with the initial reliability of 0.98. The ITEI scale uses Likert Scale (1 to 4) which was converted from ordinal scale to Equal Interval Scale. RASCH MODEL analysis was done by selecting based on Outfit Mean Square (MNSQ) between 0.5-1.5 as a good item, and measuring Point Measure Correlation (Pt Mean Corr) with the criterion of 0.4-0.85. Moderate Outfit Z-Standard (ZSTD) was ignored because the sample was >500. Conclusions: ITEI is valid with 30 items and reliability of 0.97, and less engage teachers significantly at α <0.05.

Reliability of Memories Protected by Multibit Error Correction Codes Against MBUs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ming, Zhu; Yi, Xiao Li; Chang, Liu; Wei, Zhang Jian

2011-02-01

As technology scales, more and more memory cells can be placed in a die. Therefore, the probability that a single event induces multiple bit upsets (MBUs) in adjacent memory cells gets greater. Generally, multibit error correction codes (MECCs) are effective approaches to mitigate MBUs in memories. In order to evaluate the robustness of protected memories, reliability models have been widely studied nowadays. Instead of irradiation experiments, the models can be used to quickly evaluate the reliability of memories in the early design. To build an accurate model, some situations should be considered. Firstly, when MBUs are presented in memories, the errors induced by several events may overlap each other, which is more frequent than single event upset (SEU) case. Furthermore, radiation experiments show that the probability of MBUs strongly depends on angles of the radiation event. However, reliability models which consider the overlap of multiple bit errors and angles of radiation event have not been proposed in the present literature. In this paper, a more accurate model of memories with MECCs is presented. Both the overlap of multiple bit errors and angles of event are considered in the model, which produces a more precise analysis in the calculation of mean time to failure (MTTF) for memory systems under MBUs. In addition, memories with scrubbing and nonscrubbing are analyzed in the proposed model. Finally, we evaluate the reliability of memories under MBUs in Matlab. The simulation results verify the validity of the proposed model.

Distributed collaborative response surface method for mechanical dynamic assembly reliability design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bai, Guangchen; Fei, Chengwei

2013-11-01

Because of the randomness of many impact factors influencing the dynamic assembly relationship of complex machinery, the reliability analysis of dynamic assembly relationship needs to be accomplished considering the randomness from a probabilistic perspective. To improve the accuracy and efficiency of dynamic assembly relationship reliability analysis, the mechanical dynamic assembly reliability(MDAR) theory and a distributed collaborative response surface method(DCRSM) are proposed. The mathematic model of DCRSM is established based on the quadratic response surface function, and verified by the assembly relationship reliability analysis of aeroengine high pressure turbine(HPT) blade-tip radial running clearance(BTRRC). Through the comparison of the DCRSM, traditional response surface method(RSM) and Monte Carlo Method(MCM), the results show that the DCRSM is not able to accomplish the computational task which is impossible for the other methods when the number of simulation is more than 100 000 times, but also the computational precision for the DCRSM is basically consistent with the MCM and improved by 0.40˜4.63% to the RSM, furthermore, the computational efficiency of DCRSM is up to about 188 times of the MCM and 55 times of the RSM under 10000 times simulations. The DCRSM is demonstrated to be a feasible and effective approach for markedly improving the computational efficiency and accuracy of MDAR analysis. Thus, the proposed research provides the promising theory and method for the MDAR design and optimization, and opens a novel research direction of probabilistic analysis for developing the high-performance and high-reliability of aeroengine.

Validation of the Spanish Short Self-Regulation Questionnaire (SSSRQ) through Rasch Analysis.

PubMed

Garzón Umerenkova, Angélica; de la Fuente Arias, Jesús; Martínez-Vicente, José Manuel; Zapata Sevillano, Lucía; Pichardo, Mari Carmen; García-Berbén, Ana Belén

2017-01-01

Background: The aim of the study was to psychometrically characterize the Spanish Short Self-Regulation Questionnaire (SSSRQ) through Rasch analysis. Materials and Methods: 831 Spaniard university students (262 men), between 17 and 39 years of age and ranging from the first to the 5th year of studies, completed the SSSRQ questionnaire. Confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) was carried out in order to establish structural adequacy. Afterward, by means of the Rasch model, a study of each sub scale was conducted to test for dimensionality, fit of the sample questions, functionality of the response categories, reliability and estimation of Differential Item Functioning by gender and course. Results: The four sub-scales comply with the unidimensionality criteria, the questions are in line with the model, the response categories operate properly and the reliability of the sample is acceptable. Nonetheless, the test could benefit from the inclusion of additional items of both high and low difficulty in order to increase construct validity, discrimination and reliability for the respondents. Several items with differences in gender and course were also identified. Discussion: The results evidence the need and adequacy of this complementary psychometric analysis strategy, in relation to the CFA to enhance the instrument.

Validation of the Spanish Short Self-Regulation Questionnaire (SSSRQ) through Rasch Analysis

PubMed Central

Garzón Umerenkova, Angélica; de la Fuente Arias, Jesús; Martínez-Vicente, José Manuel; Zapata Sevillano, Lucía; Pichardo, Mari Carmen; García-Berbén, Ana Belén

2017-01-01

Background: The aim of the study was to psychometrically characterize the Spanish Short Self-Regulation Questionnaire (SSSRQ) through Rasch analysis. Materials and Methods: 831 Spaniard university students (262 men), between 17 and 39 years of age and ranging from the first to the 5th year of studies, completed the SSSRQ questionnaire. Confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) was carried out in order to establish structural adequacy. Afterward, by means of the Rasch model, a study of each sub scale was conducted to test for dimensionality, fit of the sample questions, functionality of the response categories, reliability and estimation of Differential Item Functioning by gender and course. Results: The four sub-scales comply with the unidimensionality criteria, the questions are in line with the model, the response categories operate properly and the reliability of the sample is acceptable. Nonetheless, the test could benefit from the inclusion of additional items of both high and low difficulty in order to increase construct validity, discrimination and reliability for the respondents. Several items with differences in gender and course were also identified. Discussion: The results evidence the need and adequacy of this complementary psychometric analysis strategy, in relation to the CFA to enhance the instrument. PMID:28298898

What makes an accurate and reliable subject-specific finite element model? A case study of an elephant femur

PubMed Central

Panagiotopoulou, O.; Wilshin, S. D.; Rayfield, E. J.; Shefelbine, S. J.; Hutchinson, J. R.

2012-01-01

Finite element modelling is well entrenched in comparative vertebrate biomechanics as a tool to assess the mechanical design of skeletal structures and to better comprehend the complex interaction of their form–function relationships. But what makes a reliable subject-specific finite element model? To approach this question, we here present a set of convergence and sensitivity analyses and a validation study as an example, for finite element analysis (FEA) in general, of ways to ensure a reliable model. We detail how choices of element size, type and material properties in FEA influence the results of simulations. We also present an empirical model for estimating heterogeneous material properties throughout an elephant femur (but of broad applicability to FEA). We then use an ex vivo experimental validation test of a cadaveric femur to check our FEA results and find that the heterogeneous model matches the experimental results extremely well, and far better than the homogeneous model. We emphasize how considering heterogeneous material properties in FEA may be critical, so this should become standard practice in comparative FEA studies along with convergence analyses, consideration of element size, type and experimental validation. These steps may be required to obtain accurate models and derive reliable conclusions from them. PMID:21752810

76 FR 70890 - Fenamidone; Pesticide Tolerances

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-11-16

.../models/water/index.htm . Based on the Pesticide Root Zone Model/Exposure Analysis Modeling System (PRZM... listed in this unit could also be affected. The North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS... there is reliable information.'' This includes exposure through drinking water and in residential...

Descriptive Model of Generic WAMS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hauer, John F.; DeSteese, John G.

The Department of Energy’s (DOE) Transmission Reliability Program is supporting the research, deployment, and demonstration of various wide area measurement system (WAMS) technologies to enhance the reliability of the Nation’s electrical power grid. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) was tasked by the DOE National SCADA Test Bed Program to conduct a study of WAMS security. This report represents achievement of the milestone to develop a generic WAMS model description that will provide a basis for the security analysis planned in the next phase of this study.

Performance and Reliability of Bonded Interfaces for High-Temperature Packaging (Presentation)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Devoto, D.

2014-11-01

The thermal performance and reliability of sintered-silver is being evaluated for power electronics packaging applications. This will be experimentally accomplished by the synthesis of large-area bonded interfaces between metalized substrates that will be subsequently subjected to thermal cycles. A finite element model of crack initiation and propagation in these bonded interfaces will allow for the interpretation of degradation rates by a crack-velocity (V)-stress intensity factor (K) analysis. The experiment is outlined, and the modeling approach is discussed.

Reliability and construct validity of the Malay version of the Job Content Questionnaire (JCQ) among secondary school teachers in Kota Bharu, Kelantan, Malaysia.

PubMed

Hadi, Azlihanis Abdul; Naing, Nyi Nyi; Daud, Aziah; Nordin, Rusli

2006-11-01

This study was conducted to assess the reliability and construct validity of the Malay version of Job Content Questionnaire (JCQ) among secondary school teachers in Kota Bharu, Kelantan. A total of 68 teachers consented to participate in the study and were administered the Malay version of JCQ. Reliability was determined using Cronbach's alpha for internal consistency whilst construct validity was assessed using factor analysis. The results indicated that Cronbach's alpha coefficients revealed decision latitude (0.75), psychological job demand (0.50) and social support (0.84). Factor analysis showed three meaningful common factors that could explain the construct of Karasek's demand-control-social support model. The study suggests the JCQ scales are reliable and valid tools for assessing job stress in school teachers.

Optimization Based Efficiencies in First Order Reliability Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Peck, Jeffrey A.; Mahadevan, Sankaran

2003-01-01

This paper develops a method for updating the gradient vector of the limit state function in reliability analysis using Broyden's rank one updating technique. In problems that use commercial code as a black box, the gradient calculations are usually done using a finite difference approach, which becomes very expensive for large system models. The proposed method replaces the finite difference gradient calculations in a standard first order reliability method (FORM) with Broyden's Quasi-Newton technique. The resulting algorithm of Broyden updates within a FORM framework (BFORM) is used to run several example problems, and the results compared to standard FORM results. It is found that BFORM typically requires fewer functional evaluations that FORM to converge to the same answer.

Study on fast discrimination of varieties of yogurt using Vis/NIR-spectroscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Yong; Feng, Shuijuan; Deng, Xunfei; Li, Xiaoli

2006-09-01

A new approach for discrimination of varieties of yogurt by means of VisINTR-spectroscopy was present in this paper. Firstly, through the principal component analysis (PCA) of spectroscopy curves of 5 typical kinds of yogurt, the clustering of yogurt varieties was processed. The analysis results showed that the cumulate reliabilities of PC1 and PC2 (the first two principle components) were more than 98.956%, and the cumulate reliabilities from PC1 to PC7 (the first seven principle components) was 99.97%. Secondly, a discrimination model of Artificial Neural Network (ANN-BP) was set up. The first seven principles components of the samples were applied as ANN-BP inputs, and the value of type of yogurt were applied as outputs, then the three-layer ANN-BP model was build. In this model, every variety yogurt includes 27 samples, the total number of sample is 135, and the rest 25 samples were used as prediction set. The results showed the distinguishing rate of the five yogurt varieties was 100%. It presented that this model was reliable and practicable. So a new approach for the rapid and lossless discrimination of varieties of yogurt was put forward.

Logic Model Checking of Unintended Acceleration Claims in Toyota Vehicles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gamble, Ed

2012-01-01

Part of the US Department of Transportation investigation of Toyota sudden unintended acceleration (SUA) involved analysis of the throttle control software, JPL Laboratory for Reliable Software applied several techniques including static analysis and logic model checking, to the software; A handful of logic models were build, Some weaknesses were identified; however, no cause for SUA was found; The full NASA report includes numerous other analyses

Benchmark analysis of forecasted seasonal temperature over different climatic areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giunta, G.; Salerno, R.; Ceppi, A.; Ercolani, G.; Mancini, M.

2015-12-01

From a long-term perspective, an improvement of seasonal forecasting, which is often exclusively based on climatology, could provide a new capability for the management of energy resources in a time scale of just a few months. This paper regards a benchmark analysis in relation to long-term temperature forecasts over Italy in the year 2010, comparing the eni-kassandra meteo forecast (e-kmf®) model, the Climate Forecast System-National Centers for Environmental Prediction (CFS-NCEP) model, and the climatological reference (based on 25-year data) with observations. Statistical indexes are used to understand the reliability of the prediction of 2-m monthly air temperatures with a perspective of 12 weeks ahead. The results show how the best performance is achieved by the e-kmf® system which improves the reliability for long-term forecasts compared to climatology and the CFS-NCEP model. By using the reliable high-performance forecast system, it is possible to optimize the natural gas portfolio and management operations, thereby obtaining a competitive advantage in the European energy market.

Large-scale systems: Complexity, stability, reliability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Siljak, D. D.

1975-01-01

After showing that a complex dynamic system with a competitive structure has highly reliable stability, a class of noncompetitive dynamic systems for which competitive models can be constructed is defined. It is shown that such a construction is possible in the context of the hierarchic stability analysis. The scheme is based on the comparison principle and vector Liapunov functions.

The specification-based validation of reliable multicast protocol: Problem Report. M.S. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wu, Yunqing

1995-01-01

Reliable Multicast Protocol (RMP) is a communication protocol that provides an atomic, totally ordered, reliable multicast service on top of unreliable IP multicasting. In this report, we develop formal models for RMP using existing automated verification systems, and perform validation on the formal RMP specifications. The validation analysis help identifies some minor specification and design problems. We also use the formal models of RMP to generate a test suite for conformance testing of the implementation. Throughout the process of RMP development, we follow an iterative, interactive approach that emphasizes concurrent and parallel progress of implementation and verification processes. Through this approach, we incorporate formal techniques into our development process, promote a common understanding for the protocol, increase the reliability of our software, and maintain high fidelity between the specifications of RMP and its implementation.

Assessing the impact of land use change on hydrology by ensemble modeling (LUCHEM) III: Scenario analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Huisman, J.A.; Breuer, L.; Bormann, H.; Bronstert, A.; Croke, B.F.W.; Frede, H.-G.; Graff, T.; Hubrechts, L.; Jakeman, A.J.; Kite, G.; Lanini, J.; Leavesley, G.; Lettenmaier, D.P.; Lindstrom, G.; Seibert, J.; Sivapalan, M.; Viney, N.R.; Willems, P.

2009-01-01

An ensemble of 10 hydrological models was applied to the same set of land use change scenarios. There was general agreement about the direction of changes in the mean annual discharge and 90% discharge percentile predicted by the ensemble members, although a considerable range in the magnitude of predictions for the scenarios and catchments under consideration was obvious. Differences in the magnitude of the increase were attributed to the different mean annual actual evapotranspiration rates for each land use type. The ensemble of model runs was further analyzed with deterministic and probabilistic ensemble methods. The deterministic ensemble method based on a trimmed mean resulted in a single somewhat more reliable scenario prediction. The probabilistic reliability ensemble averaging (REA) method allowed a quantification of the model structure uncertainty in the scenario predictions. It was concluded that the use of a model ensemble has greatly increased our confidence in the reliability of the model predictions. ?? 2008 Elsevier Ltd.

Seals Research at AlliedSignal

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ullah, M. Rifat

1996-01-01

A consortium has been formed to address seal problems in the Aerospace sector of Allied Signal, Inc. The consortium is represented by makers of Propulsion Engines, Auxiliary Power Units, Gas Turbine Starters, etc. The goal is to improve Face Seal reliability, since Face Seals have become reliability drivers in many of our product lines. Several research programs are being implemented simultaneously this year. They include: Face Seal Modeling and Analysis Methodology; Oil Cooling of Seals; Seal Tracking Dynamics; Coking Formation & Prevention; and Seal Reliability Methods.

Estimation and enhancement of real-time software reliability through mutation analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Geist, Robert; Offutt, A. J.; Harris, Frederick C., Jr.

1992-01-01

A simulation-based technique for obtaining numerical estimates of the reliability of N-version, real-time software is presented. An extended stochastic Petri net is employed to represent the synchronization structure of N versions of the software, where dependencies among versions are modeled through correlated sampling of module execution times. Test results utilizing specifications for NASA's planetary lander control software indicate that mutation-based testing could hold greater potential for enhancing reliability than the desirable but perhaps unachievable goal of independence among N versions.

Reliability of a new biokinetic model of zirconium in internal dosimetry: part II, parameter sensitivity analysis.

PubMed

Li, Wei Bo; Greiter, Matthias; Oeh, Uwe; Hoeschen, Christoph

2011-12-01

The reliability of biokinetic models is essential for the assessment of internal doses and a radiation risk analysis for the public and occupational workers exposed to radionuclides. In the present study, a method for assessing the reliability of biokinetic models by means of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis was developed. In the first part of the paper, the parameter uncertainty was analyzed for two biokinetic models of zirconium (Zr); one was reported by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP), and one was developed at the Helmholtz Zentrum München-German Research Center for Environmental Health (HMGU). In the second part of the paper, the parameter uncertainties and distributions of the Zr biokinetic models evaluated in Part I are used as the model inputs for identifying the most influential parameters in the models. Furthermore, the most influential model parameter on the integral of the radioactivity of Zr over 50 y in source organs after ingestion was identified. The results of the systemic HMGU Zr model showed that over the first 10 d, the parameters of transfer rates between blood and other soft tissues have the largest influence on the content of Zr in the blood and the daily urinary excretion; however, after day 1,000, the transfer rate from bone to blood becomes dominant. For the retention in bone, the transfer rate from blood to bone surfaces has the most influence out to the endpoint of the simulation; the transfer rate from blood to the upper larger intestine contributes a lot in the later days; i.e., after day 300. The alimentary tract absorption factor (fA) influences mostly the integral of radioactivity of Zr in most source organs after ingestion.

Parallelizing Timed Petri Net simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nicol, David M.

1993-01-01

The possibility of using parallel processing to accelerate the simulation of Timed Petri Nets (TPN's) was studied. It was recognized that complex system development tools often transform system descriptions into TPN's or TPN-like models, which are then simulated to obtain information about system behavior. Viewed this way, it was important that the parallelization of TPN's be as automatic as possible, to admit the possibility of the parallelization being embedded in the system design tool. Later years of the grant were devoted to examining the problem of joint performance and reliability analysis, to explore whether both types of analysis could be accomplished within a single framework. In this final report, the results of our studies are summarized. We believe that the problem of parallelizing TPN's automatically for MIMD architectures has been almost completely solved for a large and important class of problems. Our initial investigations into joint performance/reliability analysis are two-fold; it was shown that Monte Carlo simulation, with importance sampling, offers promise of joint analysis in the context of a single tool, and methods for the parallel simulation of general Continuous Time Markov Chains, a model framework within which joint performance/reliability models can be cast, were developed. However, very much more work is needed to determine the scope and generality of these approaches. The results obtained in our two studies, future directions for this type of work, and a list of publications are included.

Nodal failure index approach to groundwater remediation design

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lee, J.; Reeves, H.W.; Dowding, C.H.

2008-01-01

Computer simulations often are used to design and to optimize groundwater remediation systems. We present a new computationally efficient approach that calculates the reliability of remedial design at every location in a model domain with a single simulation. The estimated reliability and other model information are used to select a best remedial option for given site conditions, conceptual model, and available data. To evaluate design performance, we introduce the nodal failure index (NFI) to determine the number of nodal locations at which the probability of success is below the design requirement. The strength of the NFI approach is that selected areas of interest can be specified for analysis and the best remedial design determined for this target region. An example application of the NFI approach using a hypothetical model shows how the spatial distribution of reliability can be used for a decision support system in groundwater remediation design. ?? 2008 ASCE.

Reliability Analysis of the Space Station Freedom Electrical Power System

DTIC Science & Technology

1989-08-01

Cleveland, Ohio, who assisted in obtaining related research materials and provided feedback on our efforts to produce a dynamic analysis tool useful to...System software that we used to do our analysis of the electrical power system. Thanks are due to Dr. Vira Chankong, my thesis advisor, for his...a frequency duration analysis . Using a transition rate matrix with a model of the photovoltaic and solar dynamic systems, they have one model that

Reliability of digital reactor protection system based on extenics.

PubMed

Zhao, Jing; He, Ya-Nan; Gu, Peng-Fei; Chen, Wei-Hua; Gao, Feng

2016-01-01

After the Fukushima nuclear accident, safety of nuclear power plants (NPPs) is widespread concerned. The reliability of reactor protection system (RPS) is directly related to the safety of NPPs, however, it is difficult to accurately evaluate the reliability of digital RPS. The method is based on estimating probability has some uncertainties, which can not reflect the reliability status of RPS dynamically and support the maintenance and troubleshooting. In this paper, the reliability quantitative analysis method based on extenics is proposed for the digital RPS (safety-critical), by which the relationship between the reliability and response time of RPS is constructed. The reliability of the RPS for CPR1000 NPP is modeled and analyzed by the proposed method as an example. The results show that the proposed method is capable to estimate the RPS reliability effectively and provide support to maintenance and troubleshooting of digital RPS system.

A Mid-Layer Model for Human Reliability Analysis: Understanding the Cognitive Causes of Human Failure Events

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stacey M. L. Hendrickson; April M. Whaley; Ronald L. Boring

The Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research (RES) is sponsoring work in response to a Staff Requirements Memorandum (SRM) directing an effort to establish a single human reliability analysis (HRA) method for the agency or guidance for the use of multiple methods. As part of this effort an attempt to develop a comprehensive HRA qualitative approach is being pursued. This paper presents a draft of the method’s middle layer, a part of the qualitative analysis phase that links failure mechanisms to performance shaping factors. Starting with a Crew Response Tree (CRT) that has identified human failure events, analysts identify potential failuremore » mechanisms using the mid-layer model. The mid-layer model presented in this paper traces the identification of the failure mechanisms using the Information-Diagnosis/Decision-Action (IDA) model and cognitive models from the psychological literature. Each failure mechanism is grouped according to a phase of IDA. Under each phase of IDA, the cognitive models help identify the relevant performance shaping factors for the failure mechanism. The use of IDA and cognitive models can be traced through fault trees, which provide a detailed complement to the CRT.« less

A mid-layer model for human reliability analysis : understanding the cognitive causes of human failure events.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shen, Song-Hua; Chang, James Y. H.; Boring,Ronald L.

2010-03-01

The Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research (RES) at the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) is sponsoring work in response to a Staff Requirements Memorandum (SRM) directing an effort to establish a single human reliability analysis (HRA) method for the agency or guidance for the use of multiple methods. As part of this effort an attempt to develop a comprehensive HRA qualitative approach is being pursued. This paper presents a draft of the method's middle layer, a part of the qualitative analysis phase that links failure mechanisms to performance shaping factors. Starting with a Crew Response Tree (CRT) that has identifiedmore » human failure events, analysts identify potential failure mechanisms using the mid-layer model. The mid-layer model presented in this paper traces the identification of the failure mechanisms using the Information-Diagnosis/Decision-Action (IDA) model and cognitive models from the psychological literature. Each failure mechanism is grouped according to a phase of IDA. Under each phase of IDA, the cognitive models help identify the relevant performance shaping factors for the failure mechanism. The use of IDA and cognitive models can be traced through fault trees, which provide a detailed complement to the CRT.« less

Introducing the Professionalism Mini-Evaluation Exercise (P-MEX) in Japan: results from a multicenter, cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Tsugawa, Yusuke; Ohbu, Sadayoshi; Cruess, Richard; Cruess, Sylvia; Okubo, Tomoya; Takahashi, Osamu; Tokuda, Yasuharu; Heist, Brian S; Bito, Seiji; Itoh, Toshiyuki; Aoki, Akiko; Chiba, Tsutomu; Fukui, Tsuguya

2011-08-01

Despite the growing importance of and interest in medical professionalism, there is no standardized tool for its measurement. The authors sought to verify the validity, reliability, and generalizability of the Professionalism Mini-Evaluation Exercise (P-MEX), a previously developed and tested tool, in the context of Japanese hospitals. A multicenter, cross-sectional evaluation study was performed to investigate the validity, reliability, and generalizability of the P-MEX in seven Japanese hospitals. In 2009-2010, 378 evaluators (attending physicians, nurses, peers, and junior residents) completed 360-degree assessments of 165 residents and fellows using the P-MEX. The content validity and criterion-related validity were examined, and the construct validity of the P-MEX was investigated by performing confirmatory factor analysis through a structural equation model. The reliability was tested using generalizability analysis. The contents of the P-MEX achieved good acceptance in a preliminary working group, and the poststudy survey revealed that 302 (79.9%) evaluators rated the P-MEX items as appropriate, indicating good content validity. The correlation coefficient between P-MEX scores and external criteria was 0.78 (P < .001), demonstrating good criterion-related validity. Confirmatory factor analysis verified high path coefficient (0.60-0.99) and adequate goodness of fit of the model. The generalizability analysis yielded a high dependability coefficient, suggesting good reliability, except when evaluators were peers or junior residents. Findings show evidence of adequate validity, reliability, and generalizability of the P-MEX in Japanese hospital settings. The P-MEX is the only evaluation tool for medical professionalism verified in both a Western and East Asian cultural context.

The reliability and validity of the English version of the Evaluation of Daily Activity Questionnaire for people with rheumatoid arthritis

PubMed Central

Tennant, Alan; Tyson, Sarah F.; Nordenskiöld, Ulla; Hawkins, Ruth; Prior, Yeliz

2015-01-01

Objectives. The Evaluation of Daily Activity Questionnaire (EDAQ) includes 138 items in 14 domains identified as important by people with RA. The aim of this study was to test the validity and reliability of the English EDAQ. Methods. A total of 502 participants completed two questionnaires 3 weeks apart. The first consisted of the EDAQ, HAQ, RA Quality of Life (RAQoL) and the Medical Outcomes Scale (MOS) 36-item Short-Form Health Survey (SF-36v2), and the second consisted of the EDAQ only. The 14 EDAQ domains were tested for: unidimensionality—using confirmatory factor analysis; fit, response dependency, invariance across groups (differential item functioning)—using Rasch analysis; internal consistency [Person Separation Index (PSI)]; concurrent validity—by correlations with the HAQ, SF-36v2 and RAQoL; and test–retest reliability (Spearman’s correlations). Results. Confirmatory factor analysis of the 14 EDAQ domains indicated unidimensionality, after adjustment for local dependency in each domain. All domains achieved a root mean square error of approximation <0.10 and satisfied Rasch model expectations for local dependency. DIF by age, gender and employment status was largely absent. The PSI was consistent with individual use (PSI = 0.94 for all 14 domains). For all domains, except Caring, concurrent validity was good: HAQ (rs = 0.72–0.91), RAQoL (rs = 0.67–0.82) and SF36v2 Physical Function scale (rs = −0.60 to −0.84) and test–retest reliability was good (rs = 0.70–0.89). Conclusion. Analysis supported a 14-domain, two-component structure (Self care and Mobility) of the EDAQ, where each domain, and both components, satisfied Rasch model requirements, and have robust reliability and validity. PMID:25863045

[Reliability and validity of Professional Quality of Life Scale among government staff in earthquake - stricken areas in China].

PubMed

Dang, Weimin; Cheng, Wenhong; Ma, Hong; Lin, Jin; Wu, Baoming; Ma, Ning; Wang, Rongke; Xu, Junting; Zhou, Tianhang; Yu, Xin

2015-06-01

To evaluate the reliability and validity of Professional Quality of Life Scale (ProQOL-30, 4th version, 30 items) among government staff in the Wenchuan earthquake-stricken areas A total of 1,175 members of government staff in the Wenchuan earthquake-stricken areas were selected by convenience sampling and required to complete the ProQOL and Self-Reporting Questionnair (SRQ). The reliability and validity of the scale was evaluated by correlation analysis, t-test, and confirmatory factor analysis. Item-total correlation coefficients of the three subscales were 0.590 - 0.752, 0.389 - 0.603, and 0.340 - 0.647, respectively (P<0.05), and the average coefficients were 0.672, 0.482, and 0.555 respectively (P<0.05). The Cronbach's α coefficients of the three subscales were 0.864, 0.569, and 0.742 respectively, and the split-half reliabilities were 0.829, 0.490, and 0.677, respectively. P value was 0.88 in thE chi-square test of confirmatory factor analysis model. Goodness-of-fit indices of ProQOL-30 included GFI=0.895 NFI=0.856, CFI=0.895, RMSEA=0.063, and AGFI=0.912. For the ProQOL-28 as an optimized version o ProQOL-30, the Cronbach's a coefficients for burnout and trauma/compassion fatigue increased to 0.616 and 0.757, respectively. P value was 0.91 in the chi-square test of confirmatory factor analysis model test. Goodness-of-fit indices of ProQOL-28 were GFI =0.913, AGFI =0.924, NFI =0.900, CFI =0.913, and RMSEA =0.031 CONCLUSION: ProQOL-28 has good reliability and validity among government staff in the earthquake-stricker areas in China.

Validity and reliability of the Iranian version of the Pediatric Quality of Life Inventory™ 4.0 (PedsQL™) Generic Core Scales in children

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background This study aimed to investigate the reliability and validity of the Iranian version of the Pediatric Quality of Life Inventory™ 4.0 (PedsQL™ 4.0) Generic Core Scales in children. Methods A standard forward and backward translation procedure was used to translate the US English version of the PedsQL™ 4.0 Generic Core Scales for children into the Iranian language (Persian). The Iranian version of the PedsQL™ 4.0 Generic Core Scales was completed by 503 healthy and 22 chronically ill children aged 8-12 years and their parents. The reliability was evaluated using internal consistency. Known-groups discriminant comparisons were made, and exploratory factor analysis (EFA) and confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) were conducted. Results The internal consistency, as measured by Cronbach's alpha coefficients, exceeded the minimum reliability standard of 0.70. All monotrait-multimethod correlations were higher than multitrait-multimethod correlations. The intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC) between the children self-report and parent proxy-reports showed moderate to high agreement. Exploratory factor analysis extracted six factors from the PedsQL™ 4.0 for both self and proxy reports, accounting for 47.9% and 54.8% of total variance, respectively. The results of the confirmatory factor analysis for 6-factor models for both self-report and proxy-report indicated acceptable fit for the proposed models. Regarding health status, as hypothesized from previous studies, healthy children reported significantly higher health-related quality of life than those with chronic illnesses. Conclusions The findings support the initial reliability and validity of the Iranian version of the PedsQL™ 4.0 as a generic instrument to measure health-related quality of life of children in Iran. PMID:22221765

Validity and reliability of the Iranian version of the Pediatric Quality of Life Inventory™ 4.0 (PedsQL™) Generic Core Scales in children.

PubMed

Amiri, Parisa; Eslamian, Ghazaleh; Mirmiran, Parvin; Shiva, Niloofar; Jafarabadi, Mohammad Asghari; Azizi, Fereidoun

2012-01-05

This study aimed to investigate the reliability and validity of the Iranian version of the Pediatric Quality of Life Inventory™ 4.0 (PedsQL™ 4.0) Generic Core Scales in children. A standard forward and backward translation procedure was used to translate the US English version of the PedsQL™ 4.0 Generic Core Scales for children into the Iranian language (Persian). The Iranian version of the PedsQL™ 4.0 Generic Core Scales was completed by 503 healthy and 22 chronically ill children aged 8-12 years and their parents. The reliability was evaluated using internal consistency. Known-groups discriminant comparisons were made, and exploratory factor analysis (EFA) and confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) were conducted. The internal consistency, as measured by Cronbach's alpha coefficients, exceeded the minimum reliability standard of 0.70. All monotrait-multimethod correlations were higher than multitrait-multimethod correlations. The intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC) between the children self-report and parent proxy-reports showed moderate to high agreement. Exploratory factor analysis extracted six factors from the PedsQL™ 4.0 for both self and proxy reports, accounting for 47.9% and 54.8% of total variance, respectively. The results of the confirmatory factor analysis for 6-factor models for both self-report and proxy-report indicated acceptable fit for the proposed models. Regarding health status, as hypothesized from previous studies, healthy children reported significantly higher health-related quality of life than those with chronic illnesses. The findings support the initial reliability and validity of the Iranian version of the PedsQL™ 4.0 as a generic instrument to measure health-related quality of life of children in Iran.

Confirmatory Factor Analysis of the Combined Social Phobia Scale and Social Interaction Anxiety Scale: Support for a Bifactor Model.

PubMed

Gomez, Rapson; Watson, Shaun D

2017-01-01

For the Social Phobia Scale (SPS) and the Social Interaction Anxiety Scale (SIAS) together, this study examined support for a bifactor model, and also the internal consistency reliability and external validity of the factors in this model. Participants ( N = 526) were adults from the general community who completed the SPS and SIAS. Confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) of their ratings indicated good support for the bifactor model. For this model, the loadings for all but six items were higher on the general factor than the specific factors. The three positively worded items had negligible loadings on the general factor. The general factor explained most of the common variance in the SPS and SIAS, and demonstrated good model-based internal consistency reliability (omega hierarchical) and a strong association with fear of negative evaluation and extraversion. The practical implications of the findings for the utilization of the SPS and SIAS, and the theoretical and clinical implications for social anxiety are discussed.

Confirmatory Factor Analysis of the Combined Social Phobia Scale and Social Interaction Anxiety Scale: Support for a Bifactor Model

PubMed Central

Gomez, Rapson; Watson, Shaun D.

2017-01-01

For the Social Phobia Scale (SPS) and the Social Interaction Anxiety Scale (SIAS) together, this study examined support for a bifactor model, and also the internal consistency reliability and external validity of the factors in this model. Participants (N = 526) were adults from the general community who completed the SPS and SIAS. Confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) of their ratings indicated good support for the bifactor model. For this model, the loadings for all but six items were higher on the general factor than the specific factors. The three positively worded items had negligible loadings on the general factor. The general factor explained most of the common variance in the SPS and SIAS, and demonstrated good model-based internal consistency reliability (omega hierarchical) and a strong association with fear of negative evaluation and extraversion. The practical implications of the findings for the utilization of the SPS and SIAS, and the theoretical and clinical implications for social anxiety are discussed. PMID:28210232

Inter-rater reliability of output measures for a posture matching assessment approach: a pilot study with food service workers.

PubMed

Cann, A P; Connolly, M; Ruuska, R; MacNeil, M; Birmingham, T B; Vandervoort, A A; Callaghan, J P

2008-04-01

Despite the ongoing health problem of repetitive strain injuries, there are few tools currently available for ergonomic applications evaluating cumulative loading that have well-documented evidence of reliability and validity. The purpose of this study was to determine the inter-rater reliability of a posture matching based analysis tool (3DMatch, University of Waterloo) for predicting cumulative and peak spinal loads. A total of 30 food service workers were each videotaped for a 1-h period while performing typical work activities and a single work task was randomly selected from each for analysis by two raters. Inter-rater reliability was determined using intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC) model 2,1 and standard errors of measurement for cumulative and peak spinal and shoulder loading variables across all subjects. Overall, 85.5% of variables had moderate to excellent inter-rater reliability, with ICCs ranging from 0.30-0.99 for all cumulative and peak loading variables. 3DMatch was found to be a reliable ergonomic tool when more than one rater is involved.

Advanced Stirling Convertor Heater Head Durability and Reliability Quantification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Krause, David L.; Shah, Ashwin R.; Korovaichuk, Igor; Kalluri, Sreeramesh

2008-01-01

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has identified the high efficiency Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator (ASRG) as a candidate power source for long duration Science missions, such as lunar applications, Mars rovers, and deep space missions, that require reliable design lifetimes of up to 17 years. Resistance to creep deformation of the MarM-247 heater head (HH), a structurally critical component of the ASRG Advanced Stirling Convertor (ASC), under high temperatures (up to 850 C) is a key design driver for durability. Inherent uncertainties in the creep behavior of the thin-walled HH and the variations in the wall thickness, control temperature, and working gas pressure need to be accounted for in the life and reliability prediction. Due to the availability of very limited test data, assuring life and reliability of the HH is a challenging task. The NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) has adopted an integrated approach combining available uniaxial MarM-247 material behavior testing, HH benchmark testing and advanced analysis in order to demonstrate the integrity, life and reliability of the HH under expected mission conditions. The proposed paper describes analytical aspects of the deterministic and probabilistic approaches and results. The deterministic approach involves development of the creep constitutive model for the MarM-247 (akin to the Oak Ridge National Laboratory master curve model used previously for Inconel 718 (Special Metals Corporation)) and nonlinear finite element analysis to predict the mean life. The probabilistic approach includes evaluation of the effect of design variable uncertainties in material creep behavior, geometry and operating conditions on life and reliability for the expected life. The sensitivity of the uncertainties in the design variables on the HH reliability is also quantified, and guidelines to improve reliability are discussed.

The School Counseling Program Implementation Survey: Initial Instrument Development and Exploratory Factor Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Clemens, Elysia V.; Carey, John C.; Harrington, Karen M.

2010-01-01

This article details the initial development of the School Counseling Program Implementation Survey and psychometric results including reliability and factor structure. An exploratory factor analysis revealed a three-factor model that accounted for 54% of the variance of the intercorrelation matrix and a two-factor model that accounted for 47% of…

Simulation-Based Training for Colonoscopy

PubMed Central

Preisler, Louise; Svendsen, Morten Bo Søndergaard; Nerup, Nikolaj; Svendsen, Lars Bo; Konge, Lars

2015-01-01

Abstract The aim of this study was to create simulation-based tests with credible pass/fail standards for 2 different fidelities of colonoscopy models. Only competent practitioners should perform colonoscopy. Reliable and valid simulation-based tests could be used to establish basic competency in colonoscopy before practicing on patients. Twenty-five physicians (10 consultants with endoscopic experience and 15 fellows with very little endoscopic experience) were tested on 2 different simulator models: a virtual-reality simulator and a physical model. Tests were repeated twice on each simulator model. Metrics with discriminatory ability were identified for both modalities and reliability was determined. The contrasting-groups method was used to create pass/fail standards and the consequences of these were explored. The consultants significantly performed faster and scored higher than the fellows on both the models (P < 0.001). Reliability analysis showed Cronbach α = 0.80 and 0.87 for the virtual-reality and the physical model, respectively. The established pass/fail standards failed one of the consultants (virtual-reality simulator) and allowed one fellow to pass (physical model). The 2 tested simulations-based modalities provided reliable and valid assessments of competence in colonoscopy and credible pass/fail standards were established for both the tests. We propose to use these standards in simulation-based training programs before proceeding to supervised training on patients. PMID:25634177

Validation of the Korean version of the pediatric quality of life inventory 4.0 (PedsQL) generic core scales in school children and adolescents using the Rasch model.

PubMed

Kook, Seung Hee; Varni, James W

2008-06-02

The Pediatric Quality of Life Inventory (PedsQL) is a child self-report and parent proxy-report instrument designed to assess health-related quality of life (HRQOL) in healthy and ill children and adolescents. It has been translated into over 70 international languages and proposed as a valid and reliable pediatric HRQOL measure. This study aimed to assess the psychometric properties of the Korean translation of the PedsQL 4.0 Generic Core Scales. Following the guidelines for linguistic validation, the original US English scales were translated into Korean and cognitive interviews were administered. The field testing responses of 1425 school children and adolescents and 1431 parents to the Korean version of PedsQL 4.0 Generic Core Scales were analyzed utilizing confirmatory factor analysis and the Rasch model. Consistent with studies using the US English instrument and other translation studies, score distributions were skewed toward higher HRQOL in a predominantly healthy population. Confirmatory factor analysis supported a four-factor and a second order-factor model. The analysis using the Rasch model showed that person reliabilities are low, item reliabilities are high, and the majority of items fit the model's expectation. The Rasch rating scale diagnostics showed that PedsQL 4.0 Generic Core Scales in general have the optimal number of response categories, but category 4 (almost always a problem) is somewhat problematic for the healthy school sample. The agreements between child self-report and parent proxy-report were moderate. The results demonstrate the feasibility, validity, item reliability, item fit, and agreement between child self-report and parent proxy-report of the Korean version of PedsQL 4.0 Generic Core Scales for school population health research in Korea. However, the utilization of the Korean version of the PedsQL 4.0 Generic Core Scales for healthy school populations needs to consider low person reliability, ceiling effects and cultural differences, and further validation studies on Korean clinical samples are required.

Principle of maximum entropy for reliability analysis in the design of machine components

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yimin

2018-03-01

We studied the reliability of machine components with parameters that follow an arbitrary statistical distribution using the principle of maximum entropy (PME). We used PME to select the statistical distribution that best fits the available information. We also established a probability density function (PDF) and a failure probability model for the parameters of mechanical components using the concept of entropy and the PME. We obtained the first four moments of the state function for reliability analysis and design. Furthermore, we attained an estimate of the PDF with the fewest human bias factors using the PME. This function was used to calculate the reliability of the machine components, including a connecting rod, a vehicle half-shaft, a front axle, a rear axle housing, and a leaf spring, which have parameters that typically follow a non-normal distribution. Simulations were conducted for comparison. This study provides a design methodology for the reliability of mechanical components for practical engineering projects.

Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures (CARES). Users and programmers manual

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nemeth, Noel N.; Manderscheid, Jane M.; Gyekenyesi, John P.

1990-01-01

This manual describes how to use the Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures (CARES) computer program. The primary function of the code is to calculate the fast fracture reliability or failure probability of macroscopically isotropic ceramic components. These components may be subjected to complex thermomechanical loadings, such as those found in heat engine applications. The program uses results from MSC/NASTRAN or ANSYS finite element analysis programs to evaluate component reliability due to inherent surface and/or volume type flaws. CARES utilizes the Batdorf model and the two-parameter Weibull cumulative distribution function to describe the effect of multiaxial stress states on material strength. The principle of independent action (PIA) and the Weibull normal stress averaging models are also included. Weibull material strength parameters, the Batdorf crack density coefficient, and other related statistical quantities are estimated from four-point bend bar or unifrom uniaxial tensile specimen fracture strength data. Parameter estimation can be performed for single or multiple failure modes by using the least-square analysis or the maximum likelihood method. Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Anderson-Darling goodness-of-fit tests, ninety percent confidence intervals on the Weibull parameters, and Kanofsky-Srinivasan ninety percent confidence band values are also provided. The probabilistic fast-fracture theories used in CARES, along with the input and output for CARES, are described. Example problems to demonstrate various feature of the program are also included. This manual describes the MSC/NASTRAN version of the CARES program.

Software Reliability Analysis of NASA Space Flight Software: A Practical Experience

PubMed Central

Sukhwani, Harish; Alonso, Javier; Trivedi, Kishor S.; Mcginnis, Issac

2017-01-01

In this paper, we present the software reliability analysis of the flight software of a recently launched space mission. For our analysis, we use the defect reports collected during the flight software development. We find that this software was developed in multiple releases, each release spanning across all software life-cycle phases. We also find that the software releases were developed and tested for four different hardware platforms, spanning from off-the-shelf or emulation hardware to actual flight hardware. For releases that exhibit reliability growth or decay, we fit Software Reliability Growth Models (SRGM); otherwise we fit a distribution function. We find that most releases exhibit reliability growth, with Log-Logistic (NHPP) and S-Shaped (NHPP) as the best-fit SRGMs. For the releases that experience reliability decay, we investigate the causes for the same. We find that such releases were the first software releases to be tested on a new hardware platform, and hence they encountered major hardware integration issues. Also such releases seem to have been developed under time pressure in order to start testing on the new hardware platform sooner. Such releases exhibit poor reliability growth, and hence exhibit high predicted failure rate. Other problems include hardware specification changes and delivery delays from vendors. Thus, our analysis provides critical insights and inputs to the management to improve the software development process. As NASA has moved towards a product line engineering for its flight software development, software for future space missions will be developed in a similar manner and hence the analysis results for this mission can be considered as a baseline for future flight software missions. PMID:29278255

Software Reliability Analysis of NASA Space Flight Software: A Practical Experience.

PubMed

Sukhwani, Harish; Alonso, Javier; Trivedi, Kishor S; Mcginnis, Issac

2016-01-01

In this paper, we present the software reliability analysis of the flight software of a recently launched space mission. For our analysis, we use the defect reports collected during the flight software development. We find that this software was developed in multiple releases, each release spanning across all software life-cycle phases. We also find that the software releases were developed and tested for four different hardware platforms, spanning from off-the-shelf or emulation hardware to actual flight hardware. For releases that exhibit reliability growth or decay, we fit Software Reliability Growth Models (SRGM); otherwise we fit a distribution function. We find that most releases exhibit reliability growth, with Log-Logistic (NHPP) and S-Shaped (NHPP) as the best-fit SRGMs. For the releases that experience reliability decay, we investigate the causes for the same. We find that such releases were the first software releases to be tested on a new hardware platform, and hence they encountered major hardware integration issues. Also such releases seem to have been developed under time pressure in order to start testing on the new hardware platform sooner. Such releases exhibit poor reliability growth, and hence exhibit high predicted failure rate. Other problems include hardware specification changes and delivery delays from vendors. Thus, our analysis provides critical insights and inputs to the management to improve the software development process. As NASA has moved towards a product line engineering for its flight software development, software for future space missions will be developed in a similar manner and hence the analysis results for this mission can be considered as a baseline for future flight software missions.

Bayes Analysis and Reliability Implications of Stress-Rupture Testing a Kevlar/Epoxy COPV Using Temperature and Pressure Acceleration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Phoenix, S. Leigh; Kezirian, Michael T.; Murthy, Pappu L. N.

2009-01-01

Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessels (COPVs) that have survived a long service time under pressure generally must be recertified before service is extended. Flight certification is dependent on the reliability analysis to quantify the risk of stress rupture failure in existing flight vessels. Full certification of this reliability model would require a statistically significant number of lifetime tests to be performed and is impractical given the cost and limited flight hardware for certification testing purposes. One approach to confirm the reliability model is to perform a stress rupture test on a flight COPV. Currently, testing of such a Kevlar49 (Dupont)/epoxy COPV is nearing completion. The present paper focuses on a Bayesian statistical approach to analyze the possible failure time results of this test and to assess the implications in choosing between possible model parameter values that in the past have had significant uncertainty. The key uncertain parameters in this case are the actual fiber stress ratio at operating pressure, and the Weibull shape parameter for lifetime; the former has been uncertain due to ambiguities in interpreting the original and a duplicate burst test. The latter has been uncertain due to major differences between COPVs in the database and the actual COPVs in service. Any information obtained that clarifies and eliminates uncertainty in these parameters will have a major effect on the predicted reliability of the service COPVs going forward. The key result is that the longer the vessel survives, the more likely the more optimistic stress ratio model is correct. At the time of writing, the resulting effect on predicted future reliability is dramatic, increasing it by about one "nine," that is, reducing the predicted probability of failure by an order of magnitude. However, testing one vessel does not change the uncertainty on the Weibull shape parameter for lifetime since testing several vessels would be necessary.

Reliability prediction of large fuel cell stack based on structure stress analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, L. F.; Liu, B.; Wu, C. W.

2017-09-01

The aim of this paper is to improve the reliability of Proton Electrolyte Membrane Fuel Cell (PEMFC) stack by designing the clamping force and the thickness difference between the membrane electrode assembly (MEA) and the gasket. The stack reliability is directly determined by the component reliability, which is affected by the material property and contact stress. The component contact stress is a random variable because it is usually affected by many uncertain factors in the production and clamping process. We have investigated the influences of parameter variation coefficient on the probability distribution of contact stress using the equivalent stiffness model and the first-order second moment method. The optimal contact stress to make the component stay in the highest level reliability is obtained by the stress-strength interference model. To obtain the optimal contact stress between the contact components, the optimal thickness of the component and the stack clamping force are optimally designed. Finally, a detailed description is given how to design the MEA and gasket dimensions to obtain the highest stack reliability. This work can provide a valuable guidance in the design of stack structure for a high reliability of fuel cell stack.

Finite element modelling of aluminum alloy 2024-T3 under transverse impact loading

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdullah, Ahmad Sufian; Kuntjoro, Wahyu; Yamin, A. F. M.

2017-12-01

Fiber metal laminate named GLARE is a new aerospace material which has great potential to be widely used in future lightweight aircraft. It consists of aluminum alloy 2024-T3 and glass-fiber reinforced laminate. In order to produce reliable finite element model of impact response or crashworthiness of structure made of GLARE, one can initially model and validate the finite element model of the impact response of its constituents separately. The objective of this study was to develop a reliable finite element model of aluminum alloy 2024-T3 under low velocity transverse impact loading using commercial software ABAQUS. Johnson-Cook plasticity and damage models were used to predict the alloy's material properties and impact behavior. The results of the finite element analysis were compared to the experiment that has similar material and impact conditions. Results showed good correlations in terms of impact forces, deformation and failure progressions which concluded that the finite element model of 2024-T3 aluminum alloy under low velocity transverse impact condition using Johnson-Cook plastic and damage models was reliable.

Development and validation of a tool to assess knowledge and attitudes towards generic medicines among students in Greece: The ATtitude TOwards GENerics (ATTOGEN) questionnaire.

PubMed

Domeyer, Philip J; Aletras, Vassilis; Anagnostopoulos, Fotios; Katsari, Vasiliki; Niakas, Dimitris

2017-01-01

The use of generic medicines is a cost-effective policy, often dictated by fiscal restraints. To our knowledge, no fully validated tool exploring the students' knowledge and attitudes towards generic medicines exists. The aim of our study was to develop and validate a questionnaire exploring the knowledge and attitudes of M.Sc. in Health Care Management students and recent alumni's towards generic drugs in Greece. The development of the questionnaire was a result of literature review and pilot-testing of its preliminary versions to researchers and students. The final version of the questionnaire contains 18 items measuring the respondents' knowledge and attitude towards generic medicines on a 5-point Likert scale. Given the ordinal nature of the data, ordinal alpha and polychoric correlations were computed. The sample was randomly split into two halves. Exploratory factor analysis, performed in the first sample, was used for the creation of multi-item scales. Confirmatory factor analysis and Generalized Linear Latent and Mixed Model analysis (GLLAMM) with the use of the rating scale model were used in the second sample to assess goodness of fit. An assessment of internal consistency reliability, test-retest reliability, and construct validity was also performed. Among 1402 persons contacted, 986 persons completed our questionnaire (response rate = 70.3%). Overall Cronbach's alpha was 0.871. The conjoint use of exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis resulted in a six-scale model, which seemed to fit the data well. Five of the six scales, namely trust, drug quality, state audit, fiscal impact and drug substitution were found to be valid and reliable, while the knowledge scale suffered only from low inter-scale correlations and a ceiling effect. However, the subsequent confirmatory factor and GLLAMM analyses indicated a good fit of the model to the data. The ATTOGEN instrument proved to be a reliable and valid tool, suitable for assessing students' knowledge and attitudes towards generic medicines.

Uncertainty quantification and reliability assessment in operational oil spill forecast modeling system.

PubMed

Hou, Xianlong; Hodges, Ben R; Feng, Dongyu; Liu, Qixiao

2017-03-15

As oil transport increasing in the Texas bays, greater risks of ship collisions will become a challenge, yielding oil spill accidents as a consequence. To minimize the ecological damage and optimize rapid response, emergency managers need to be informed with how fast and where oil will spread as soon as possible after a spill. The state-of-the-art operational oil spill forecast modeling system improves the oil spill response into a new stage. However uncertainty due to predicted data inputs often elicits compromise on the reliability of the forecast result, leading to misdirection in contingency planning. Thus understanding the forecast uncertainty and reliability become significant. In this paper, Monte Carlo simulation is implemented to provide parameters to generate forecast probability maps. The oil spill forecast uncertainty is thus quantified by comparing the forecast probability map and the associated hindcast simulation. A HyosPy-based simple statistic model is developed to assess the reliability of an oil spill forecast in term of belief degree. The technologies developed in this study create a prototype for uncertainty and reliability analysis in numerical oil spill forecast modeling system, providing emergency managers to improve the capability of real time operational oil spill response and impact assessment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A cross-validation study of the TGMD-2: The case of an adolescent population.

PubMed

Issartel, Johann; McGrane, Bronagh; Fletcher, Richard; O'Brien, Wesley; Powell, Danielle; Belton, Sarahjane

2017-05-01

This study proposes an extension of a widely used test evaluating fundamental movement skills proficiency to an adolescent population, with a specific emphasis on validity and reliability for this older age group. Cross-sectional observational study. A total of 844 participants (n=456 male, 12.03±0.49) participated in this study. The 12 fundamental movement skills of the TGMD-2 were assessed. Inter-rater reliability was examined to ensure a minimum of 95% consistency between coders. Confirmatory factor analysis was undertaken with a one-factor model (all 12 skills) and two-factor model (6 locomotor skills and 6 object-control skills) as proposed by Ulrich et al. (2000). The model fit was examined using χ 2 , TLI, CFI and RMSEA. Test-retest reliability was carried out with a subsample of 35 participants. The test-retest reliability reached Intraclass Correlation Coefficient of 0.78 (locomotor), 0.76 (object related) and 0.91 (gross motor skill proficiency). The confirmatory factor analysis did not display a good fit for either the one-factor or two-factor model due to a really low contribution of several skills. A reduction in the number of skills to just seven (run, gallop, hop, horizontal jump, bounce, kick and roll) revealed an overall good fit by TLI, CFI and RMSEA measures. The proposed new model offers the possibility of longitudinal studies to track the maturation of fundamental movement skills across the child and adolescent spectrum, while also giving researchers a valid assessment to tool to evaluate adolescent fundamental movement skills proficiency level. Copyright © 2016 Sports Medicine Australia. All rights reserved.

Reliability Analysis of the Gradual Degradation of Semiconductor Devices.

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-07-20

under the heading of linear models or linear statistical models . 3 ,4 We have not used this material in this report. Assuming catastrophic failure when...assuming a catastrophic model . In this treatment we first modify our system loss formula and then proceed to the actual analysis. II. ANALYSIS OF...Failure Time 1 Ti Ti 2 T2 T2 n Tn n and are easily analyzed by simple linear regression. Since we have assumed a log normal/Arrhenius activation

Finite element modeling and analysis of reinforced-concrete bridge.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2000-09-01

Despite its long history, the finite element method continues to be the predominant strategy employed by engineers to conduct structural analysis. A reliable method is needed for analyzing structures made of reinforced concrete, a complex but common ...

Confounding Problems in Multifactor AOV When Using Several Organismic Variables of Limited Reliability

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Games, Paul A.

1975-01-01

A brief introduction is presented on how multiple regression and linear model techniques can handle data analysis situations that most educators and psychologists think of as appropriate for analysis of variance. (Author/BJG)

Determining minimum staffing levels during snowstorms using an integrated simulation, regression, and reliability model.

PubMed

Kunkel, Amber; McLay, Laura A

2013-03-01

Emergency medical services (EMS) provide life-saving care and hospital transport to patients with severe trauma or medical conditions. Severe weather events, such as snow events, may lead to adverse patient outcomes by increasing call volumes and service times. Adequate staffing levels during such weather events are critical for ensuring that patients receive timely care. To determine staffing levels that depend on weather, we propose a model that uses a discrete event simulation of a reliability model to identify minimum staffing levels that provide timely patient care, with regression used to provide the input parameters. The system is said to be reliable if there is a high degree of confidence that ambulances can immediately respond to a given proportion of patients (e.g., 99 %). Four weather scenarios capture varying levels of snow falling and snow on the ground. An innovative feature of our approach is that we evaluate the mitigating effects of different extrinsic response policies and intrinsic system adaptation. The models use data from Hanover County, Virginia to quantify how snow reduces EMS system reliability and necessitates increasing staffing levels. The model and its analysis can assist in EMS preparedness by providing a methodology to adjust staffing levels during weather events. A key observation is that when it is snowing, intrinsic system adaptation has similar effects on system reliability as one additional ambulance.

Selecting statistical model and optimum maintenance policy: a case study of hydraulic pump.

PubMed

Ruhi, S; Karim, M R

2016-01-01

Proper maintenance policy can play a vital role for effective investigation of product reliability. Every engineered object such as product, plant or infrastructure needs preventive and corrective maintenance. In this paper we look at a real case study. It deals with the maintenance of hydraulic pumps used in excavators by a mining company. We obtain the data that the owner had collected and carry out an analysis and building models for pump failures. The data consist of both failure and censored lifetimes of the hydraulic pump. Different competitive mixture models are applied to analyze a set of maintenance data of a hydraulic pump. Various characteristics of the mixture models, such as the cumulative distribution function, reliability function, mean time to failure, etc. are estimated to assess the reliability of the pump. Akaike Information Criterion, adjusted Anderson-Darling test statistic, Kolmogrov-Smirnov test statistic and root mean square error are considered to select the suitable models among a set of competitive models. The maximum likelihood estimation method via the EM algorithm is applied mainly for estimating the parameters of the models and reliability related quantities. In this study, it is found that a threefold mixture model (Weibull-Normal-Exponential) fits well for the hydraulic pump failures data set. This paper also illustrates how a suitable statistical model can be applied to estimate the optimum maintenance period at a minimum cost of a hydraulic pump.

Assessing physician leadership styles: application of the situational leadership model to transitions in patient acuity.

PubMed

Skog, Alexander; Peyre, Sarah E; Pozner, Charles N; Thorndike, Mary; Hicks, Gloria; Dellaripa, Paul F

2012-01-01

The situational leadership model suggests that an effective leader adapts leadership style depending on the followers' level of competency. We assessed the applicability and reliability of the situational leadership model when observing residents in simulated hospital floor-based scenarios. Resident teams engaged in clinical simulated scenarios. Video recordings were divided into clips based on Emergency Severity Index v4 acuity scores. Situational leadership styles were identified in clips by two physicians. Interrater reliability was determined through descriptive statistical data analysis. There were 114 participants recorded in 20 sessions, and 109 clips were reviewed and scored. There was a high level of interrater reliability (weighted kappa r = .81) supporting situational leadership model's applicability to medical teams. A suggestive correlation was found between frequency of changes in leadership style and the ability to effectively lead a medical team. The situational leadership model represents a unique tool to assess medical leadership performance in the context of acuity changes.

Incorporation of prior information on parameters into nonlinear regression groundwater flow models: 1. Theory

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cooley, Richard L.

1982-01-01

Prior information on the parameters of a groundwater flow model can be used to improve parameter estimates obtained from nonlinear regression solution of a modeling problem. Two scales of prior information can be available: (1) prior information having known reliability (that is, bias and random error structure) and (2) prior information consisting of best available estimates of unknown reliability. A regression method that incorporates the second scale of prior information assumes the prior information to be fixed for any particular analysis to produce improved, although biased, parameter estimates. Approximate optimization of two auxiliary parameters of the formulation is used to help minimize the bias, which is almost always much smaller than that resulting from standard ridge regression. It is shown that if both scales of prior information are available, then a combined regression analysis may be made.

Probabilistic Prediction of Lifetimes of Ceramic Parts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nemeth, Noel N.; Gyekenyesi, John P.; Jadaan, Osama M.; Palfi, Tamas; Powers, Lynn; Reh, Stefan; Baker, Eric H.

2006-01-01

ANSYS/CARES/PDS is a software system that combines the ANSYS Probabilistic Design System (PDS) software with a modified version of the Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures Life (CARES/Life) Version 6.0 software. [A prior version of CARES/Life was reported in Program for Evaluation of Reliability of Ceramic Parts (LEW-16018), NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 20, No. 3 (March 1996), page 28.] CARES/Life models effects of stochastic strength, slow crack growth, and stress distribution on the overall reliability of a ceramic component. The essence of the enhancement in CARES/Life 6.0 is the capability to predict the probability of failure using results from transient finite-element analysis. ANSYS PDS models the effects of uncertainty in material properties, dimensions, and loading on the stress distribution and deformation. ANSYS/CARES/PDS accounts for the effects of probabilistic strength, probabilistic loads, probabilistic material properties, and probabilistic tolerances on the lifetime and reliability of the component. Even failure probability becomes a stochastic quantity that can be tracked as a response variable. ANSYS/CARES/PDS enables tracking of all stochastic quantities in the design space, thereby enabling more precise probabilistic prediction of lifetimes of ceramic components.

Distributed collaborative probabilistic design of multi-failure structure with fluid-structure interaction using fuzzy neural network of regression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Lu-Kai; Wen, Jie; Fei, Cheng-Wei; Bai, Guang-Chen

2018-05-01

To improve the computing efficiency and precision of probabilistic design for multi-failure structure, a distributed collaborative probabilistic design method-based fuzzy neural network of regression (FR) (called as DCFRM) is proposed with the integration of distributed collaborative response surface method and fuzzy neural network regression model. The mathematical model of DCFRM is established and the probabilistic design idea with DCFRM is introduced. The probabilistic analysis of turbine blisk involving multi-failure modes (deformation failure, stress failure and strain failure) was investigated by considering fluid-structure interaction with the proposed method. The distribution characteristics, reliability degree, and sensitivity degree of each failure mode and overall failure mode on turbine blisk are obtained, which provides a useful reference for improving the performance and reliability of aeroengine. Through the comparison of methods shows that the DCFRM reshapes the probability of probabilistic analysis for multi-failure structure and improves the computing efficiency while keeping acceptable computational precision. Moreover, the proposed method offers a useful insight for reliability-based design optimization of multi-failure structure and thereby also enriches the theory and method of mechanical reliability design.

Confirmatory Factor Analysis of the Malay Version of the Confusion, Hubbub and Order Scale (CHAOS-6) among Myocardial Infarction Survivors in a Malaysian Cardiac Healthcare Facility.

PubMed

Ganasegeran, Kurubaran; Selvaraj, Kamaraj; Rashid, Abdul

2017-08-01

The six item Confusion, Hubbub and Order Scale (CHAOS-6) has been validated as a reliable tool to measure levels of household disorder. We aimed to investigate the goodness of fit and reliability of a new Malay version of the CHAOS-6. The original English version of the CHAOS-6 underwent forward-backward translation into the Malay language. The finalised Malay version was administered to 105 myocardial infarction survivors in a Malaysian cardiac health facility. We performed confirmatory factor analyses (CFAs) using structural equation modelling. A path diagram and fit statistics were yielded to determine the Malay version's validity. Composite reliability was tested to determine the scale's reliability. All 105 myocardial infarction survivors participated in the study. The CFA yielded a six-item, one-factor model with excellent fit statistics. Composite reliability for the single factor CHAOS-6 was 0.65, confirming that the scale is reliable for Malay speakers. The Malay version of the CHAOS-6 was reliable and showed the best fit statistics for our study sample. We thus offer a simple, brief, validated, reliable and novel instrument to measure chaos, the Skala Kecelaruan, Keriuhan & Tertib Terubahsuai (CHAOS-6) , for the Malaysian population.

Confirmatory Factor Analysis of the Malay Version of the Confusion, Hubbub and Order Scale (CHAOS-6) among Myocardial Infarction Survivors in a Malaysian Cardiac Healthcare Facility

PubMed Central

Ganasegeran, Kurubaran; Selvaraj, Kamaraj; Rashid, Abdul

2017-01-01

Background The six item Confusion, Hubbub and Order Scale (CHAOS-6) has been validated as a reliable tool to measure levels of household disorder. We aimed to investigate the goodness of fit and reliability of a new Malay version of the CHAOS-6. Methods The original English version of the CHAOS-6 underwent forward-backward translation into the Malay language. The finalised Malay version was administered to 105 myocardial infarction survivors in a Malaysian cardiac health facility. We performed confirmatory factor analyses (CFAs) using structural equation modelling. A path diagram and fit statistics were yielded to determine the Malay version’s validity. Composite reliability was tested to determine the scale’s reliability. Results All 105 myocardial infarction survivors participated in the study. The CFA yielded a six-item, one-factor model with excellent fit statistics. Composite reliability for the single factor CHAOS-6 was 0.65, confirming that the scale is reliable for Malay speakers. Conclusion The Malay version of the CHAOS-6 was reliable and showed the best fit statistics for our study sample. We thus offer a simple, brief, validated, reliable and novel instrument to measure chaos, the Skala Kecelaruan, Keriuhan & Tertib Terubahsuai (CHAOS-6), for the Malaysian population. PMID:28951688

Lifetime Reliability Evaluation of Structural Ceramic Parts with the CARES/LIFE Computer Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nemeth, Noel N.; Powers, Lynn M.; Janosik, Lesley A.; Gyekenyesi, John P.

1993-01-01

The computer program CARES/LIFE calculates the time-dependent reliability of monolithic ceramic components subjected to thermomechanical and/or proof test loading. This program is an extension of the CARES (Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures) computer program. CARES/LIFE accounts for the phenomenon of subcritical crack growth (SCG) by utilizing the power law, Paris law, or Walker equation. The two-parameter Weibull cumulative distribution function is used to characterize the variation in component strength. The effects of multiaxial stresses are modeled using either the principle of independent action (PIA), Weibull's normal stress averaging method (NSA), or Batdorf's theory. Inert strength and fatigue parameters are estimated from rupture strength data of naturally flawed specimens loaded in static, dynamic, or cyclic fatigue. Two example problems demonstrating cyclic fatigue parameter estimation and component reliability analysis with proof testing are included.

A validation of the construct and reliability of an emotional intelligence scale applied to nursing students1

PubMed Central

Espinoza-Venegas, Maritza; Sanhueza-Alvarado, Olivia; Ramírez-Elizondo, Noé; Sáez-Carrillo, Katia

2015-01-01

OBJECTIVE: The current study aimed to validate the construct and reliability of an emotional intelligence scale. METHOD: The Trait Meta-Mood Scale-24 was applied to 349 nursing students. The process included content validation, which involved expert reviews, pilot testing, measurements of reliability using Cronbach's alpha, and factor analysis to corroborate the validity of the theoretical model's construct. RESULTS: Adequate Cronbach coefficients were obtained for all three dimensions, and factor analysis confirmed the scale's dimensions (perception, comprehension, and regulation). CONCLUSION: The Trait Meta-Mood Scale is a reliable and valid tool to measure the emotional intelligence of nursing students. Its use allows for accurate determinations of individuals' abilities to interpret and manage emotions. At the same time, this new construct is of potential importance for measurements in nursing leadership; educational, organizational, and personal improvements; and the establishment of effective relationships with patients. PMID:25806642

Distributed collaborative probabilistic design for turbine blade-tip radial running clearance using support vector machine of regression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fei, Cheng-Wei; Bai, Guang-Chen

2014-12-01

To improve the computational precision and efficiency of probabilistic design for mechanical dynamic assembly like the blade-tip radial running clearance (BTRRC) of gas turbine, a distribution collaborative probabilistic design method-based support vector machine of regression (SR)(called as DCSRM) is proposed by integrating distribution collaborative response surface method and support vector machine regression model. The mathematical model of DCSRM is established and the probabilistic design idea of DCSRM is introduced. The dynamic assembly probabilistic design of aeroengine high-pressure turbine (HPT) BTRRC is accomplished to verify the proposed DCSRM. The analysis results reveal that the optimal static blade-tip clearance of HPT is gained for designing BTRRC, and improving the performance and reliability of aeroengine. The comparison of methods shows that the DCSRM has high computational accuracy and high computational efficiency in BTRRC probabilistic analysis. The present research offers an effective way for the reliability design of mechanical dynamic assembly and enriches mechanical reliability theory and method.

The Use Of Computational Human Performance Modeling As Task Analysis Tool

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jacuqes Hugo; David Gertman

2012-07-01

During a review of the Advanced Test Reactor safety basis at the Idaho National Laboratory, human factors engineers identified ergonomic and human reliability risks involving the inadvertent exposure of a fuel element to the air during manual fuel movement and inspection in the canal. There were clear indications that these risks increased the probability of human error and possible severe physical outcomes to the operator. In response to this concern, a detailed study was conducted to determine the probability of the inadvertent exposure of a fuel element. Due to practical and safety constraints, the task network analysis technique was employedmore » to study the work procedures at the canal. Discrete-event simulation software was used to model the entire procedure as well as the salient physical attributes of the task environment, such as distances walked, the effect of dropped tools, the effect of hazardous body postures, and physical exertion due to strenuous tool handling. The model also allowed analysis of the effect of cognitive processes such as visual perception demands, auditory information and verbal communication. The model made it possible to obtain reliable predictions of operator performance and workload estimates. It was also found that operator workload as well as the probability of human error in the fuel inspection and transfer task were influenced by the concurrent nature of certain phases of the task and the associated demand on cognitive and physical resources. More importantly, it was possible to determine with reasonable accuracy the stages as well as physical locations in the fuel handling task where operators would be most at risk of losing their balance and falling into the canal. The model also provided sufficient information for a human reliability analysis that indicated that the postulated fuel exposure accident was less than credible.« less

SURE - SEMI-MARKOV UNRELIABILITY RANGE EVALUATOR (VAX VMS VERSION)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Butler, R. W.

1994-01-01

The Semi-Markov Unreliability Range Evaluator, SURE, is an analysis tool for reconfigurable, fault-tolerant systems. Traditional reliability analyses are based on aggregates of fault-handling and fault-occurrence models. SURE provides an efficient means for calculating accurate upper and lower bounds for the death state probabilities for a large class of semi-Markov models, not just those which can be reduced to critical-pair architectures. The calculated bounds are close enough (usually within 5 percent of each other) for use in reliability studies of ultra-reliable computer systems. The SURE bounding theorems have algebraic solutions and are consequently computationally efficient even for large and complex systems. SURE can optionally regard a specified parameter as a variable over a range of values, enabling an automatic sensitivity analysis. Highly reliable systems employ redundancy and reconfiguration as methods of ensuring operation. When such systems are modeled stochastically, some state transitions are orders of magnitude faster than others; that is, fault recovery is usually faster than fault arrival. SURE takes these time differences into account. Slow transitions are described by exponential functions and fast transitions are modeled by either the White or Lee theorems based on means, variances, and percentiles. The user must assign identifiers to every state in the system and define all transitions in the semi-Markov model. SURE input statements are composed of variables and constants related by FORTRAN-like operators such as =, +, *, SIN, EXP, etc. There are a dozen major commands such as READ, READO, SAVE, SHOW, PRUNE, TRUNCate, CALCulator, and RUN. Once the state transitions have been defined, SURE calculates the upper and lower probability bounds for entering specified death states within a specified mission time. SURE output is tabular. The mathematical approach chosen to solve a reliability problem may vary with the size and nature of the problem. Although different solution techniques are utilized on different programs, it is possible to have a common input language. The Systems Validation Methods group at NASA Langley Research Center has created a set of programs that form the basis for a reliability analysis workstation. The set of programs are: SURE reliability analysis program (COSMIC program LAR-13789, LAR-14921); the ASSIST specification interface program (LAR-14193, LAR-14923), PAWS/STEM reliability analysis programs (LAR-14165, LAR-14920); and the FTC fault tree tool (LAR-14586, LAR-14922). FTC is used to calculate the top-event probability for a fault tree. PAWS/STEM and SURE are programs which interpret the same SURE language, but utilize different solution methods. ASSIST is a preprocessor that generates SURE language from a more abstract definition. SURE, ASSIST, and PAWS/STEM are also offered as a bundle. Please see the abstract for COS-10039/COS-10041, SARA - SURE/ASSIST Reliability Analysis Workstation, for pricing details. SURE was originally developed for DEC VAX series computers running VMS and was later ported for use on Sun computers running SunOS. The VMS version (LAR13789) is written in PASCAL, C-language, and FORTRAN 77. The standard distribution medium for the VMS version of SURE is a 9-track 1600 BPI magnetic tape in VMSINSTAL format. It is also available on a TK50 tape cartridge in VMSINSTAL format. Executables are included. The Sun UNIX version (LAR14921) is written in ANSI C-language and PASCAL. An ANSI compliant C compiler is required in order to compile the C portion of this package. The standard distribution medium for the Sun version of SURE is a .25 inch streaming magnetic tape cartridge in UNIX tar format. Both Sun3 and Sun4 executables are included. SURE was developed in 1988 and last updated in 1992. DEC, VAX, VMS, and TK50 are trademarks of Digital Equipment Corporation. TEMPLATE is a registered trademark of Template Graphics Software, Inc. UNIX is a registered trademark of AT&T Bell Laboratories. Sun3 and Sun4 are trademarks of Sun Microsystems, Inc.

SURE - SEMI-MARKOV UNRELIABILITY RANGE EVALUATOR (SUN VERSION)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Butler, R. W.

1994-01-01

The Semi-Markov Unreliability Range Evaluator, SURE, is an analysis tool for reconfigurable, fault-tolerant systems. Traditional reliability analyses are based on aggregates of fault-handling and fault-occurrence models. SURE provides an efficient means for calculating accurate upper and lower bounds for the death state probabilities for a large class of semi-Markov models, not just those which can be reduced to critical-pair architectures. The calculated bounds are close enough (usually within 5 percent of each other) for use in reliability studies of ultra-reliable computer systems. The SURE bounding theorems have algebraic solutions and are consequently computationally efficient even for large and complex systems. SURE can optionally regard a specified parameter as a variable over a range of values, enabling an automatic sensitivity analysis. Highly reliable systems employ redundancy and reconfiguration as methods of ensuring operation. When such systems are modeled stochastically, some state transitions are orders of magnitude faster than others; that is, fault recovery is usually faster than fault arrival. SURE takes these time differences into account. Slow transitions are described by exponential functions and fast transitions are modeled by either the White or Lee theorems based on means, variances, and percentiles. The user must assign identifiers to every state in the system and define all transitions in the semi-Markov model. SURE input statements are composed of variables and constants related by FORTRAN-like operators such as =, +, *, SIN, EXP, etc. There are a dozen major commands such as READ, READO, SAVE, SHOW, PRUNE, TRUNCate, CALCulator, and RUN. Once the state transitions have been defined, SURE calculates the upper and lower probability bounds for entering specified death states within a specified mission time. SURE output is tabular. The mathematical approach chosen to solve a reliability problem may vary with the size and nature of the problem. Although different solution techniques are utilized on different programs, it is possible to have a common input language. The Systems Validation Methods group at NASA Langley Research Center has created a set of programs that form the basis for a reliability analysis workstation. The set of programs are: SURE reliability analysis program (COSMIC program LAR-13789, LAR-14921); the ASSIST specification interface program (LAR-14193, LAR-14923), PAWS/STEM reliability analysis programs (LAR-14165, LAR-14920); and the FTC fault tree tool (LAR-14586, LAR-14922). FTC is used to calculate the top-event probability for a fault tree. PAWS/STEM and SURE are programs which interpret the same SURE language, but utilize different solution methods. ASSIST is a preprocessor that generates SURE language from a more abstract definition. SURE, ASSIST, and PAWS/STEM are also offered as a bundle. Please see the abstract for COS-10039/COS-10041, SARA - SURE/ASSIST Reliability Analysis Workstation, for pricing details. SURE was originally developed for DEC VAX series computers running VMS and was later ported for use on Sun computers running SunOS. The VMS version (LAR13789) is written in PASCAL, C-language, and FORTRAN 77. The standard distribution medium for the VMS version of SURE is a 9-track 1600 BPI magnetic tape in VMSINSTAL format. It is also available on a TK50 tape cartridge in VMSINSTAL format. Executables are included. The Sun UNIX version (LAR14921) is written in ANSI C-language and PASCAL. An ANSI compliant C compiler is required in order to compile the C portion of this package. The standard distribution medium for the Sun version of SURE is a .25 inch streaming magnetic tape cartridge in UNIX tar format. Both Sun3 and Sun4 executables are included. SURE was developed in 1988 and last updated in 1992. DEC, VAX, VMS, and TK50 are trademarks of Digital Equipment Corporation. TEMPLATE is a registered trademark of Template Graphics Software, Inc. UNIX is a registered trademark of AT&T Bell Laboratories. Sun3 and Sun4 are trademarks of Sun Microsystems, Inc.

ASME V\\&V challenge problem: Surrogate-based V&V

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Beghini, Lauren L.; Hough, Patricia D.

2015-12-18

The process of verification and validation can be resource intensive. From the computational model perspective, the resource demand typically arises from long simulation run times on multiple cores coupled with the need to characterize and propagate uncertainties. In addition, predictive computations performed for safety and reliability analyses have similar resource requirements. For this reason, there is a tradeoff between the time required to complete the requisite studies and the fidelity or accuracy of the results that can be obtained. At a high level, our approach is cast within a validation hierarchy that provides a framework in which we perform sensitivitymore » analysis, model calibration, model validation, and prediction. The evidence gathered as part of these activities is mapped into the Predictive Capability Maturity Model to assess credibility of the model used for the reliability predictions. With regard to specific technical aspects of our analysis, we employ surrogate-based methods, primarily based on polynomial chaos expansions and Gaussian processes, for model calibration, sensitivity analysis, and uncertainty quantification in order to reduce the number of simulations that must be done. The goal is to tip the tradeoff balance to improving accuracy without increasing the computational demands.« less

Decision-theoretic methodology for reliability and risk allocation in nuclear power plants

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cho, N.Z.; Papazoglou, I.A.; Bari, R.A.

1985-01-01

This paper describes a methodology for allocating reliability and risk to various reactor systems, subsystems, components, operations, and structures in a consistent manner, based on a set of global safety criteria which are not rigid. The problem is formulated as a multiattribute decision analysis paradigm; the multiobjective optimization, which is performed on a PRA model and reliability cost functions, serves as the guiding principle for reliability and risk allocation. The concept of noninferiority is used in the multiobjective optimization problem. Finding the noninferior solution set is the main theme of the current approach. The assessment of the decision maker's preferencesmore » could then be performed more easily on the noninferior solution set. Some results of the methodology applications to a nontrivial risk model are provided and several outstanding issues such as generic allocation and preference assessment are discussed.« less

Fatigue reliability of deck structures subjected to correlated crack growth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, G. Q.; Garbatov, Y.; Guedes Soares, C.

2013-12-01

The objective of this work is to analyse fatigue reliability of deck structures subjected to correlated crack growth. The stress intensity factors of the correlated cracks are obtained by finite element analysis and based on which the geometry correction functions are derived. The Monte Carlo simulations are applied to predict the statistical descriptors of correlated cracks based on the Paris-Erdogan equation. A probabilistic model of crack growth as a function of time is used to analyse the fatigue reliability of deck structures accounting for the crack propagation correlation. A deck structure is modelled as a series system of stiffened panels, where a stiffened panel is regarded as a parallel system composed of plates and are longitudinal. It has been proven that the method developed here can be conveniently applied to perform the fatigue reliability assessment of structures subjected to correlated crack growth.

Integrated Evaluation of Reliability and Power Consumption of Wireless Sensor Networks.

PubMed

Dâmaso, Antônio; Rosa, Nelson; Maciel, Paulo

2017-11-05

Power consumption is a primary interest in Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs), and a large number of strategies have been proposed to evaluate it. However, those approaches usually neither consider reliability issues nor the power consumption of applications executing in the network. A central concern is the lack of consolidated solutions that enable us to evaluate the power consumption of applications and the network stack also considering their reliabilities. To solve this problem, we introduce a fully automatic solution to design power consumption aware WSN applications and communication protocols. The solution presented in this paper comprises a methodology to evaluate the power consumption based on the integration of formal models, a set of power consumption and reliability models, a sensitivity analysis strategy to select WSN configurations and a toolbox named EDEN to fully support the proposed methodology. This solution allows accurately estimating the power consumption of WSN applications and the network stack in an automated way.

Fault trees for decision making in systems analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lambert, Howard E.

1975-10-09

The application of fault tree analysis (FTA) to system safety and reliability is presented within the framework of system safety analysis. The concepts and techniques involved in manual and automated fault tree construction are described and their differences noted. The theory of mathematical reliability pertinent to FTA is presented with emphasis on engineering applications. An outline of the quantitative reliability techniques of the Reactor Safety Study is given. Concepts of probabilistic importance are presented within the fault tree framework and applied to the areas of system design, diagnosis and simulation. The computer code IMPORTANCE ranks basic events and cut setsmore » according to a sensitivity analysis. A useful feature of the IMPORTANCE code is that it can accept relative failure data as input. The output of the IMPORTANCE code can assist an analyst in finding weaknesses in system design and operation, suggest the most optimal course of system upgrade, and determine the optimal location of sensors within a system. A general simulation model of system failure in terms of fault tree logic is described. The model is intended for efficient diagnosis of the causes of system failure in the event of a system breakdown. It can also be used to assist an operator in making decisions under a time constraint regarding the future course of operations. The model is well suited for computer implementation. New results incorporated in the simulation model include an algorithm to generate repair checklists on the basis of fault tree logic and a one-step-ahead optimization procedure that minimizes the expected time to diagnose system failure.« less

Stress and Reliability Analysis of a Metal-Ceramic Dental Crown

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Anusavice, Kenneth J; Sokolowski, Todd M.; Hojjatie, Barry; Nemeth, Noel N.

1996-01-01

Interaction of mechanical and thermal stresses with the flaws and microcracks within the ceramic region of metal-ceramic dental crowns can result in catastrophic or delayed failure of these restorations. The objective of this study was to determine the combined influence of induced functional stresses and pre-existing flaws and microcracks on the time-dependent probability of failure of a metal-ceramic molar crown. A three-dimensional finite element model of a porcelain fused-to-metal (PFM) molar crown was developed using the ANSYS finite element program. The crown consisted of a body porcelain, opaque porcelain, and a metal substrate. The model had a 300 Newton load applied perpendicular to one cusp, a load of 30ON applied at 30 degrees from the perpendicular load case, directed toward the center, and a 600 Newton vertical load. Ceramic specimens were subjected to a biaxial flexure test and the load-to-failure of each specimen was measured. The results of the finite element stress analysis and the flexure tests were incorporated in the NASA developed CARES/LIFE program to determine the Weibull and fatigue parameters and time-dependent fracture reliability of the PFM crown. CARES/LIFE calculates the time-dependent reliability of monolithic ceramic components subjected to thermomechanical and/Or proof test loading. This program is an extension of the CARES (Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures) computer program.

Assessment of environmental impacts part one. Intervention analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hipel, Keith William; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.; McLeod, A. Ian

The use of intervention analysis as a statistical method of gauging the effects of environmental changes is discussed. The Box-Jenkins model, serves as the basis for the intervention analysis methodology. Environmental studies of the Aswan Dam, the South Saskatchewan River, and a forest fire near the Pipers Hole River, Canada, are included as case studies in which intervention analysis was employed. Methods of data collection for intervention analysis are found to have a significant impact on model reliability; effective data collection processes for the Box-Jenkins model are provided. (15 graphs, 27 references, 2 tables)

Monte Carlo Simulation of Markov, Semi-Markov, and Generalized Semi- Markov Processes in Probabilistic Risk Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

English, Thomas

2005-01-01

A standard tool of reliability analysis used at NASA-JSC is the event tree. An event tree is simply a probability tree, with the probabilities determining the next step through the tree specified at each node. The nodal probabilities are determined by a reliability study of the physical system at work for a particular node. The reliability study performed at a node is typically referred to as a fault tree analysis, with the potential of a fault tree existing.for each node on the event tree. When examining an event tree it is obvious why the event tree/fault tree approach has been adopted. Typical event trees are quite complex in nature, and the event tree/fault tree approach provides a systematic and organized approach to reliability analysis. The purpose of this study was two fold. Firstly, we wanted to explore the possibility that a semi-Markov process can create dependencies between sojourn times (the times it takes to transition from one state to the next) that can decrease the uncertainty when estimating time to failures. Using a generalized semi-Markov model, we studied a four element reliability model and were able to demonstrate such sojourn time dependencies. Secondly, we wanted to study the use of semi-Markov processes to introduce a time variable into the event tree diagrams that are commonly developed in PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment) analyses. Event tree end states which change with time are more representative of failure scenarios than are the usual static probability-derived end states.

Reliability and validity of tongue color analysis in the prediction of symptom patterns in terms of East Asian Medicine.

PubMed

Park, Young-Jae; Lee, Jin-Moo; Yoo, Seung-Yeon; Park, Young-Bae

2016-04-01

To examine whether color parameters of tongue inspection (TI) using a digital camera was reliable and valid, and to examine which color parameters serve as predictors of symptom patterns in terms of East Asian medicine (EAM). Two hundred female subjects' tongue substances were photographed by a mega-pixel digital camera. Together with the photographs, the subjects were asked to complete Yin deficiency, Phlegm pattern, and Cold-Heat pattern questionnaires. Using three sets of digital imaging software, each digital image was exposure- and white balance-corrected, and finally L* (luminance), a* (red-green balance), and b* (yellow-blue balance) values of the tongues were calculated. To examine intra- and inter-rater reliabilities and criterion validity of the color analysis method, three raters were asked to calculate color parameters for 20 digital image samples. Finally, four hierarchical regression models were formed. Color parameters showed good or excellent reliability (0.627-0.887 for intra-class correlation coefficients) and significant criterion validity (0.523-0.718 for Spearman's correlation). In the hierarchical regression models, age was a significant predictor of Yin deficiency (β = 0.192), and b* value of the tip of the tongue was a determinant predictor of Yin deficiency, Phlegm, and Heat patterns (β = - 0.212, - 0.172, and - 0.163). Luminance (L*) was predictive of Yin deficiency (β = -0.172) and Cold (β = 0.173) pattern. Our results suggest that color analysis of the tongue using the L*a*b* system is reliable and valid, and that color parameters partially serve as symptom pattern predictors in EAM practice.

A New Reliability Analysis Model of the Chegongzhuang Heat-Supplying Tunnel Structure Considering the Coupling of Pipeline Thrust and Thermal Effect

PubMed Central

Zhang, Jiawen; He, Shaohui; Wang, Dahai; Liu, Yangpeng; Yao, Wenbo; Liu, Xiabing

2018-01-01

Based on the operating Chegongzhuang heat-supplying tunnel in Beijing, the reliability of its lining structure under the action of large thrust and thermal effect is studied. According to the characteristics of a heat-supplying tunnel service, a three-dimensional numerical analysis model was established based on the mechanical tests on the in-situ specimens. The stress and strain of the tunnel structure were obtained before and after the operation. Compared with the field monitoring data, the rationality of the model was verified. After extracting the internal force of the lining structure, the improved method of subset simulation was proposed as the performance function to calculate the reliability of the main control section of the tunnel. In contrast to the traditional calculation method, the analytic relationship between the sample numbers in the subset simulation method and Monte Carlo method was given. The results indicate that the lining structure is greatly influenced by coupling in the range of six meters from the fixed brackets, especially the tunnel floor. The improved subset simulation method can greatly save computation time and improve computational efficiency under the premise of ensuring the accuracy of calculation. It is suitable for the reliability calculation of tunnel engineering, because “the lower the probability, the more efficient the calculation.” PMID:29401691

R&D of high reliable refrigeration system for superconducting generators

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hosoya, T.; Shindo, S.; Yaguchi, H.

1996-12-31

Super-GM carries out R&D of 70 MW class superconducting generators (model machines), refrigeration system and superconducting wires to apply superconducting technology to electric power apparatuses. The helium refrigeration system for keeping field windings of superconducting generator (SCG) in cryogenic environment must meet the requirement of high reliability for uninterrupted long term operation of the SCG. In FY 1992, a high reliable conventional refrigeration system for the model machines was integrated by combining components such as compressor unit, higher temperature cold box and lower temperature cold box which were manufactured utilizing various fundamental technologies developed in early stage of the projectmore » since 1988. Since FY 1993, its performance tests have been carried out. It has been confirmed that its performance was fulfilled the development target of liquefaction capacity of 100 L/h and impurity removal in the helium gas to < 0.1 ppm. Furthermore, its operation method and performance were clarified to all different modes as how to control liquefaction rate and how to supply liquid helium from a dewar to the model machine. In addition, the authors have made performance tests and system performance analysis of oil free screw type and turbo type compressors which greatly improve reliability of conventional refrigeration systems. The operation performance and operational control method of the compressors has been clarified through the tests and analysis.« less

Development and Psychometric Testing of a Sexual Concerns Questionnaire for Kidney Transplant Recipients.

PubMed

Muehrer, Rebecca J; Lanuza, Dorothy M; Brown, Roger L; Djamali, Arjang

2015-01-01

This study describes the development and psychometric testing of the Sexual Concerns Questionnaire (SCQ) in kidney transplant (KTx) recipients. Construct validity was assessed using the Kroonenberg and Lewis exploratory/confirmatory procedure and testing hypothesized relationships with established questionnaires. Configural and weak invariance were examined across gender, dialysis history, relationship status, and transplant type. Reliability was assessed with Cronbach's alpha, composite reliability, and test-retest reliability. Factor analysis resulted in a 7-factor solution and suggests good model fit. Construct validity was also supported by the tests of hypothesized relationships. Configural and weak invariance were supported for all subgroups. Reliability of the SCQ was also supported. Findings indicate the SCQ is a valid and reliable measure of KTx recipients' sexual concerns.

solveME: fast and reliable solution of nonlinear ME models.

PubMed

Yang, Laurence; Ma, Ding; Ebrahim, Ali; Lloyd, Colton J; Saunders, Michael A; Palsson, Bernhard O

2016-09-22

Genome-scale models of metabolism and macromolecular expression (ME) significantly expand the scope and predictive capabilities of constraint-based modeling. ME models present considerable computational challenges: they are much (>30 times) larger than corresponding metabolic reconstructions (M models), are multiscale, and growth maximization is a nonlinear programming (NLP) problem, mainly due to macromolecule dilution constraints. Here, we address these computational challenges. We develop a fast and numerically reliable solution method for growth maximization in ME models using a quad-precision NLP solver (Quad MINOS). Our method was up to 45 % faster than binary search for six significant digits in growth rate. We also develop a fast, quad-precision flux variability analysis that is accelerated (up to 60× speedup) via solver warm-starts. Finally, we employ the tools developed to investigate growth-coupled succinate overproduction, accounting for proteome constraints. Just as genome-scale metabolic reconstructions have become an invaluable tool for computational and systems biologists, we anticipate that these fast and numerically reliable ME solution methods will accelerate the wide-spread adoption of ME models for researchers in these fields.

Analysis of an experiment aimed at improving the reliability of transmission centre shafts.

PubMed

Davis, T P

1995-01-01

Smith (1991) presents a paper proposing the use of Weibull regression models to establish dependence of failure data (usually times) on covariates related to the design of the test specimens and test procedures. In his article Smith made the point that good experimental design was as important in reliability applications as elsewhere, and in view of the current interest in design inspired by Taguchi and others, we pay some attention in this article to that topic. A real case study from the Ford Motor Company is presented. Our main approach is to utilize suggestions in the literature for applying standard least squares techniques of experimental analysis even when there is likely to be nonnormal error, and censoring. This approach lacks theoretical justification, but its appeal is its simplicity and flexibility. For completeness we also include some analysis based on the proportional hazards model, and in an attempt to link back to Smith (1991), look at a Weibull regression model.

Predicting pedestrian flow: a methodology and a proof of concept based on real-life data.

PubMed

Davidich, Maria; Köster, Gerta

2013-01-01

Building a reliable predictive model of pedestrian motion is very challenging: Ideally, such models should be based on observations made in both controlled experiments and in real-world environments. De facto, models are rarely based on real-world observations due to the lack of available data; instead, they are largely based on intuition and, at best, literature values and laboratory experiments. Such an approach is insufficient for reliable simulations of complex real-life scenarios: For instance, our analysis of pedestrian motion under natural conditions at a major German railway station reveals that the values for free-flow velocities and the flow-density relationship differ significantly from widely used literature values. It is thus necessary to calibrate and validate the model against relevant real-life data to make it capable of reproducing and predicting real-life scenarios. In this work we aim at constructing such realistic pedestrian stream simulation. Based on the analysis of real-life data, we present a methodology that identifies key parameters and interdependencies that enable us to properly calibrate the model. The success of the approach is demonstrated for a benchmark model, a cellular automaton. We show that the proposed approach significantly improves the reliability of the simulation and hence the potential prediction accuracy. The simulation is validated by comparing the local density evolution of the measured data to that of the simulated data. We find that for our model the most sensitive parameters are: the source-target distribution of the pedestrian trajectories, the schedule of pedestrian appearances in the scenario and the mean free-flow velocity. Our results emphasize the need for real-life data extraction and analysis to enable predictive simulations.

Batch settling curve registration via image data modeling.

PubMed

Derlon, Nicolas; Thürlimann, Christian; Dürrenmatt, David; Villez, Kris

2017-05-01

To this day, obtaining reliable characterization of sludge settling properties remains a challenging and time-consuming task. Without such assessments however, optimal design and operation of secondary settling tanks is challenging and conservative approaches will remain necessary. With this study, we show that automated sludge blanket height registration and zone settling velocity estimation is possible thanks to analysis of images taken during batch settling experiments. The experimental setup is particularly interesting for practical applications as it consists of off-the-shelf components only, no moving parts are required, and the software is released publicly. Furthermore, the proposed multivariate shape constrained spline model for image analysis appears to be a promising method for reliable sludge blanket height profile registration. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The development of instruments to measure the work disability assessment behaviour of insurance physicians

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Variation in assessments is a universal given, and work disability assessments by insurance physicians are no exception. Little is known about the considerations and views of insurance physicians that may partly explain such variation. On the basis of the Attitude - Social norm - self Efficacy (ASE) model, we have developed measurement instruments for assessment behaviour and its determinants. Methods Based on theory and interviews with insurance physicians the questionnaire included blocks of items concerning background variables, intentions, attitudes, social norms, self-efficacy, knowledge, barriers and behaviour of the insurance physicians in relation to work disability assessment issues. The responses of 231 insurance physicians were suitable for further analysis. Factor analysis and reliability analysis were used to form scale variables and homogeneity analysis was used to form dimension variables. Thus, we included 169 of the 177 original items. Results Factor analysis and reliability analysis yielded 29 scales with sufficient reliability. Homogeneity analysis yielded 19 dimensions. Scales and dimensions fitted with the concepts of the ASE model. We slightly modified the ASE model by dividing behaviour into two blocks: behaviour that reflects the assessment process and behaviour that reflects assessment behaviour. The picture that emerged from the descriptive results was of a group of physicians who were motivated in their job and positive about the Dutch social security system in general. However, only half of them had a positive opinion about the Dutch Work and Income (Capacity for Work) Act (WIA). They also reported serious barriers, the most common of which was work pressure. Finally, 73% of the insurance physicians described the majority of their cases as 'difficult'. Conclusions The scales and dimensions developed appear to be valid and offer a promising basis for future research. The results suggest that the underlying ASE model, in modified form, is suitable for describing the assessment behaviour of insurance physicians and the determinants of this behaviour. The next step in this line of research should be to validate the model using structural equation modelling. Finally, the predictive value should be tested in relation to outcome measurements of work disability assessments. PMID:21199570

Attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder dimensionality: the reliable 'g' and the elusive 's' dimensions.

PubMed

Wagner, Flávia; Martel, Michelle M; Cogo-Moreira, Hugo; Maia, Carlos Renato Moreira; Pan, Pedro Mario; Rohde, Luis Augusto; Salum, Giovanni Abrahão

2016-01-01

The best structural model for attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) symptoms remains a matter of debate. The objective of this study is to test the fit and factor reliability of competing models of the dimensional structure of ADHD symptoms in a sample of randomly selected and high-risk children and pre-adolescents from Brazil. Our sample comprised 2512 children aged 6-12 years from 57 schools in Brazil. The ADHD symptoms were assessed using parent report on the development and well-being assessment (DAWBA). Fit indexes from confirmatory factor analysis were used to test unidimensional, correlated, and bifactor models of ADHD, the latter including "g" ADHD and "s" symptom domain factors. Reliability of all models was measured with omega coefficients. A bifactor model with one general factor and three specific factors (inattention, hyperactivity, impulsivity) exhibited the best fit to the data, according to fit indices, as well as the most consistent factor loadings. However, based on omega reliability statistics, the specific inattention, hyperactivity, and impulsivity dimensions provided very little reliable information after accounting for the reliable general ADHD factor. Our study presents some psychometric evidence that ADHD specific ("s") factors might be unreliable after taking common ("g" factor) variance into account. These results are in accordance with the lack of longitudinal stability among subtypes, the absence of dimension-specific molecular genetic findings and non-specific effects of treatment strategies. Therefore, researchers and clinicians might most effectively rely on the "g" ADHD to characterize ADHD dimensional phenotype, based on currently available symptom items.

The GRASP 3: Graphical Reliability Analysis Simulation Program. Version 3: A users' manual and modelling guide

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Phillips, D. T.; Manseur, B.; Foster, J. W.

1982-01-01

Alternate definitions of system failure create complex analysis for which analytic solutions are available only for simple, special cases. The GRASP methodology is a computer simulation approach for solving all classes of problems in which both failure and repair events are modeled according to the probability laws of the individual components of the system.

77 FR 21670 - Acibenzolar-S-

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-04-11

.../Exposure Analysis Modeling System and Screening Concentration in Ground Water (SCI-GROW) models, the... Classification System (NAICS) codes have been provided to assist you and others in determining whether this... reliable information.'' This includes exposure through drinking water and in residential settings, but does...

Reliability and Maintainability Model (RAM): User and Maintenance Manual. Part 2; Improved Supportability Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ebeling, Charles E.

1996-01-01

This report documents the procedures for utilizing and maintaining the Reliability & Maintainability Model (RAM) developed by the University of Dayton for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Langley Research Center (LaRC). The purpose of the grant is to provide support to NASA in establishing operational and support parameters and costs of proposed space systems. As part of this research objective, the model described here was developed. This Manual updates and supersedes the 1995 RAM User and Maintenance Manual. Changes and enhancements from the 1995 version of the model are primarily a result of the addition of more recent aircraft and shuttle R&M data.

Module Degradation Mechanisms Studied by a Multi-Scale Approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Johnston, Steve; Al-Jassim, Mowafak; Hacke, Peter

2016-11-21

A key pathway to meeting the Department of Energy SunShot 2020 goals is to reduce financing costs by improving investor confidence through improved photovoltaic (PV) module reliability. A comprehensive approach to further understand and improve PV reliability includes characterization techniques and modeling from module to atomic scale. Imaging techniques, which include photoluminescence, electroluminescence, and lock-in thermography, are used to locate localized defects responsible for module degradation. Small area samples containing such defects are prepared using coring techniques and are then suitable and available for microscopic study and specific defect modeling and analysis.

Reliability model generator

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cohen, Gerald C. (Inventor); McMann, Catherine M. (Inventor)

1991-01-01

An improved method and system for automatically generating reliability models for use with a reliability evaluation tool is described. The reliability model generator of the present invention includes means for storing a plurality of low level reliability models which represent the reliability characteristics for low level system components. In addition, the present invention includes means for defining the interconnection of the low level reliability models via a system architecture description. In accordance with the principles of the present invention, a reliability model for the entire system is automatically generated by aggregating the low level reliability models based on the system architecture description.

Confirmatory factor analysis of teaching and learning guiding principles instrument among teacher educators in higher education institutions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masuwai, Azwani; Tajudin, Nor'ain Mohd; Saad, Noor Shah

2017-05-01

The purpose of this study is to develop and establish the validity and reliability of an instrument to generate teaching and learning guiding principles using Teaching and Learning Guiding Principles Instrument (TLGPI). Participants consisted of 171 Malaysian teacher educators. It is an essential instrument to reflect in generating the teaching and learning guiding principles in higher education level in Malaysia. Confirmatory Factor Analysis has validated all 19 items of TLGPI whereby all items indicated high reliability and internal consistency. A Confirmatory Factor Analysis also confirmed that a single factor model was used to generate teaching and learning guiding principles.

Improving the reliability of female fertility breeding values using type and milk yield traits that predict energy status in Australian Holstein cattle.

PubMed

González-Recio, O; Haile-Mariam, M; Pryce, J E

2016-01-01

The objectives of this study were (1) to propose changing the selection criteria trait for evaluating fertility in Australia from calving interval to conception rate at d 42 after the beginning of the mating season and (2) to use type traits as early fertility predictors, to increase the reliability of estimated breeding values for fertility. The breeding goal in Australia is conception within 6 wk of the start of the mating season. Currently, the Australian model to predict fertility breeding values (expressed as a linear transformation of calving interval) is a multitrait model that includes calving interval (CVI), lactation length (LL), calving to first service (CFS), first nonreturn rate (FNRR), and conception rate. However, CVI has a lower genetic correlation with the breeding goal (conception within 6 wk of the start of the mating season) than conception rate. Milk yield, type, and fertility data from 164,318 cow sired by 4,766 bulls were used. Principal component analysis and genetic correlation estimates between type and fertility traits were used to select type traits that could subsequently be used in a multitrait analysis. Angularity, foot angle, and pin set were chosen as type traits to include in an index with the traits that are included in the multitrait fertility model: CVI, LL, CFS, FNRR, and conception rate at d 42 (CR42). An index with these 8 traits is expected to achieve an average bull first proof reliability of 0.60 on the breeding objective (conception within 6 wk of the start of the mating season) compared with reliabilities of 0.39 and 0.45 for CR42 only or the current 5-trait Australian model. Subsequently, we used the first eigenvector of a principal component analysis with udder texture, bone quality, angularity, and body condition score to calculate an energy status indicator trait. The inclusion of the energy status indicator trait composite in a multitrait index with CVI, LL, CFS, FNRR, and CR42 achieved a 12-point increase in fertility breeding value reliability (i.e., increased by 30%; up to 0.72 points of reliability), whereas a lower increase in reliability (4 points, i.e., increased by 10%) was obtained by including angularity, foot angle, and pin set in the index. In situations when a limited number of daughters have been phenotyped for CR42, including type data for sires increased reliabilities compared with when type data were omitted. However, sires with more than 80 daughters with CR42 records achieved reliability estimates close to 80% on average, and there did not appear to be a benefit from having daughters with type records. The cost of phenotyping to obtain such reliabilities (assuming a cost of AU$14 per cow with type data and AU$5 per cow with pregnancy diagnosed) is lower if more pregnancy data are collected in preference to type data. That is, efforts to increase the reliability of fertility EBV are most cost effective when directed at obtaining a larger number of pregnancy tests. Copyright © 2016 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Understanding software faults and their role in software reliability modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Munson, John C.

1994-01-01

This study is a direct result of an on-going project to model the reliability of a large real-time control avionics system. In previous modeling efforts with this system, hardware reliability models were applied in modeling the reliability behavior of this system. In an attempt to enhance the performance of the adapted reliability models, certain software attributes were introduced in these models to control for differences between programs and also sequential executions of the same program. As the basic nature of the software attributes that affect software reliability become better understood in the modeling process, this information begins to have important implications on the software development process. A significant problem arises when raw attribute measures are to be used in statistical models as predictors, for example, of measures of software quality. This is because many of the metrics are highly correlated. Consider the two attributes: lines of code, LOC, and number of program statements, Stmts. In this case, it is quite obvious that a program with a high value of LOC probably will also have a relatively high value of Stmts. In the case of low level languages, such as assembly language programs, there might be a one-to-one relationship between the statement count and the lines of code. When there is a complete absence of linear relationship among the metrics, they are said to be orthogonal or uncorrelated. Usually the lack of orthogonality is not serious enough to affect a statistical analysis. However, for the purposes of some statistical analysis such as multiple regression, the software metrics are so strongly interrelated that the regression results may be ambiguous and possibly even misleading. Typically, it is difficult to estimate the unique effects of individual software metrics in the regression equation. The estimated values of the coefficients are very sensitive to slight changes in the data and to the addition or deletion of variables in the regression equation. Since most of the existing metrics have common elements and are linear combinations of these common elements, it seems reasonable to investigate the structure of the underlying common factors or components that make up the raw metrics. The technique we have chosen to use to explore this structure is a procedure called principal components analysis. Principal components analysis is a decomposition technique that may be used to detect and analyze collinearity in software metrics. When confronted with a large number of metrics measuring a single construct, it may be desirable to represent the set by some smaller number of variables that convey all, or most, of the information in the original set. Principal components are linear transformations of a set of random variables that summarize the information contained in the variables. The transformations are chosen so that the first component accounts for the maximal amount of variation of the measures of any possible linear transform; the second component accounts for the maximal amount of residual variation; and so on. The principal components are constructed so that they represent transformed scores on dimensions that are orthogonal. Through the use of principal components analysis, it is possible to have a set of highly related software attributes mapped into a small number of uncorrelated attribute domains. This definitively solves the problem of multi-collinearity in subsequent regression analysis. There are many software metrics in the literature, but principal component analysis reveals that there are few distinct sources of variation, i.e. dimensions, in this set of metrics. It would appear perfectly reasonable to characterize the measurable attributes of a program with a simple function of a small number of orthogonal metrics each of which represents a distinct software attribute domain.

Multi-mode reliability-based design of horizontal curves.

PubMed

Essa, Mohamed; Sayed, Tarek; Hussein, Mohamed

2016-08-01

Recently, reliability analysis has been advocated as an effective approach to account for uncertainty in the geometric design process and to evaluate the risk associated with a particular design. In this approach, a risk measure (e.g. probability of noncompliance) is calculated to represent the probability that a specific design would not meet standard requirements. The majority of previous applications of reliability analysis in geometric design focused on evaluating the probability of noncompliance for only one mode of noncompliance such as insufficient sight distance. However, in many design situations, more than one mode of noncompliance may be present (e.g. insufficient sight distance and vehicle skidding at horizontal curves). In these situations, utilizing a multi-mode reliability approach that considers more than one failure (noncompliance) mode is required. The main objective of this paper is to demonstrate the application of multi-mode (system) reliability analysis to the design of horizontal curves. The process is demonstrated by a case study of Sea-to-Sky Highway located between Vancouver and Whistler, in southern British Columbia, Canada. Two noncompliance modes were considered: insufficient sight distance and vehicle skidding. The results show the importance of accounting for several noncompliance modes in the reliability model. The system reliability concept could be used in future studies to calibrate the design of various design elements in order to achieve consistent safety levels based on all possible modes of noncompliance. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Selection and Reporting of Statistical Methods to Assess Reliability of a Diagnostic Test: Conformity to Recommended Methods in a Peer-Reviewed Journal

PubMed Central

Park, Ji Eun; Han, Kyunghwa; Sung, Yu Sub; Chung, Mi Sun; Koo, Hyun Jung; Yoon, Hee Mang; Choi, Young Jun; Lee, Seung Soo; Kim, Kyung Won; Shin, Youngbin; An, Suah; Cho, Hyo-Min

2017-01-01

Objective To evaluate the frequency and adequacy of statistical analyses in a general radiology journal when reporting a reliability analysis for a diagnostic test. Materials and Methods Sixty-three studies of diagnostic test accuracy (DTA) and 36 studies reporting reliability analyses published in the Korean Journal of Radiology between 2012 and 2016 were analyzed. Studies were judged using the methodological guidelines of the Radiological Society of North America-Quantitative Imaging Biomarkers Alliance (RSNA-QIBA), and COnsensus-based Standards for the selection of health Measurement INstruments (COSMIN) initiative. DTA studies were evaluated by nine editorial board members of the journal. Reliability studies were evaluated by study reviewers experienced with reliability analysis. Results Thirty-one (49.2%) of the 63 DTA studies did not include a reliability analysis when deemed necessary. Among the 36 reliability studies, proper statistical methods were used in all (5/5) studies dealing with dichotomous/nominal data, 46.7% (7/15) of studies dealing with ordinal data, and 95.2% (20/21) of studies dealing with continuous data. Statistical methods were described in sufficient detail regarding weighted kappa in 28.6% (2/7) of studies and regarding the model and assumptions of intraclass correlation coefficient in 35.3% (6/17) and 29.4% (5/17) of studies, respectively. Reliability parameters were used as if they were agreement parameters in 23.1% (3/13) of studies. Reproducibility and repeatability were used incorrectly in 20% (3/15) of studies. Conclusion Greater attention to the importance of reporting reliability, thorough description of the related statistical methods, efforts not to neglect agreement parameters, and better use of relevant terminology is necessary. PMID:29089821

Factor structure of the Childhood Autism Rating Scale as per DSM-5.

PubMed

Park, Eun-Young; Kim, Joungmin

2016-02-01

The DSM-5 recently proposed new diagnostic criteria for autism spectrum disorder (ASD). Although many new or updated tools have been developed since the DSM-IV was published in 1994, the Childhood Autism Rating Scale (CARS) has been used consistently in ASD diagnosis and research due to its technical adequacy, cost-effectiveness, and practicality. Additionally, items in the CARS did not alter following the release of the revised DSM-IV because the CARS factor structure was found to be consistent with the revised criteria after factor analysis. For that reason, in this study confirmatory factor analysis was used to identify the factor structure of the CARS. Participants (n = 150) consisted of children with an ASD diagnosis or who met the criteria for broader autism or emotional/behavior disorder with comorbid disorders such as attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder, bipolar disorder, intellectual or developmental disabilities. Previous studies used one-, two-, and four-factor models, all of which we examined to confirm the best-fit model on confirmatory factor analysis. Appropriate comparative fit indices and root mean square errors were obtained for all four models. The two-factor model, based on DSM-5 criteria, was the most valid and reliable. The inter-item consistency of the CARS was 0.926 and demonstrated adequate reliability, thereby supporting the validity and reliability of the two-factor model of CARS. Although CARS was developed prior to the introduction of DSM-5, its psychometric properties, conceptual relevance, and flexible administration procedures support its continued role as a screening device in the diagnostic decision-making process. © 2015 Japan Pediatric Society.

The psychometric validation of the Social Problem-Solving Inventory--Revised with UK incarcerated sexual offenders.

PubMed

Wakeling, Helen C

2007-09-01

This study examined the reliability and validity of the Social Problem-Solving Inventory--Revised (SPSI-R; D'Zurilla, Nezu, & Maydeu-Olivares, 2002) with a population of incarcerated sexual offenders. An availability sample of 499 adult male sexual offenders was used. The SPSI-R had good reliability measured by internal consistency and test-retest reliability, and adequate validity. Construct validity was determined via factor analysis. An exploratory factor analysis extracted a two-factor model. This model was then tested against the theory-driven five-factor model using confirmatory factor analysis. The five-factor model was selected as the better fitting of the two, and confirmed the model according to social problem-solving theory (D'Zurilla & Nezu, 1982). The SPSI-R had good convergent validity; significant correlations were found between SPSI-R subscales and measures of self-esteem, impulsivity, and locus of control. SPSI-R subscales were however found to significantly correlate with a measure of socially desirable responding. This finding is discussed in relation to recent research suggesting that impression management may not invalidate self-report measures (e.g. Mills & Kroner, 2005). The SPSI-R was sensitive to sexual offender intervention, with problem-solving improving pre to post-treatment in both rapists and child molesters. The study concludes that the SPSI-R is a reasonably internally valid and appropriate tool to assess problem-solving in sexual offenders. However future research should cross-validate the SPSI-R with other behavioural outcomes to examine the external validity of the measure. Furthermore, future research should utilise a control group to determine treatment impact.

Why the Major Field Test in Business Does Not Report Subscores: Reliability and Construct Validity Evidence. Research Report. ETS RR-12-11

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ling, Guangming

2012-01-01

To assess the value of individual students' subscores on the Major Field Test in Business (MFT Business), I examined the test's internal structure with factor analysis and structural equation model methods, and analyzed the subscore reliabilities using the augmented scores method. Analyses of the internal structure suggested that the MFT Business…

Estimation of environment-related properties of chemicals for design of sustainable processes: development of group-contribution+ (GC+) property models and uncertainty analysis.

PubMed

Hukkerikar, Amol Shivajirao; Kalakul, Sawitree; Sarup, Bent; Young, Douglas M; Sin, Gürkan; Gani, Rafiqul

2012-11-26

The aim of this work is to develop group-contribution(+) (GC(+)) method (combined group-contribution (GC) method and atom connectivity index (CI) method) based property models to provide reliable estimations of environment-related properties of organic chemicals together with uncertainties of estimated property values. For this purpose, a systematic methodology for property modeling and uncertainty analysis is used. The methodology includes a parameter estimation step to determine parameters of property models and an uncertainty analysis step to establish statistical information about the quality of parameter estimation, such as the parameter covariance, the standard errors in predicted properties, and the confidence intervals. For parameter estimation, large data sets of experimentally measured property values of a wide range of chemicals (hydrocarbons, oxygenated chemicals, nitrogenated chemicals, poly functional chemicals, etc.) taken from the database of the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and from the database of USEtox is used. For property modeling and uncertainty analysis, the Marrero and Gani GC method and atom connectivity index method have been considered. In total, 22 environment-related properties, which include the fathead minnow 96-h LC(50), Daphnia magna 48-h LC(50), oral rat LD(50), aqueous solubility, bioconcentration factor, permissible exposure limit (OSHA-TWA), photochemical oxidation potential, global warming potential, ozone depletion potential, acidification potential, emission to urban air (carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic), emission to continental rural air (carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic), emission to continental fresh water (carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic), emission to continental seawater (carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic), emission to continental natural soil (carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic), and emission to continental agricultural soil (carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic) have been modeled and analyzed. The application of the developed property models for the estimation of environment-related properties and uncertainties of the estimated property values is highlighted through an illustrative example. The developed property models provide reliable estimates of environment-related properties needed to perform process synthesis, design, and analysis of sustainable chemical processes and allow one to evaluate the effect of uncertainties of estimated property values on the calculated performance of processes giving useful insights into quality and reliability of the design of sustainable processes.

NDE reliability and probability of detection (POD) evolution and paradigm shift

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, Surendra

2014-02-01

The subject of NDE Reliability and POD has gone through multiple phases since its humble beginning in the late 1960s. This was followed by several programs including the important one nicknamed "Have Cracks - Will Travel" or in short "Have Cracks" by Lockheed Georgia Company for US Air Force during 1974-1978. This and other studies ultimately led to a series of developments in the field of reliability and POD starting from the introduction of fracture mechanics and Damaged Tolerant Design (DTD) to statistical framework by Bernes and Hovey in 1981 for POD estimation to MIL-STD HDBK 1823 (1999) and 1823A (2009). During the last decade, various groups and researchers have further studied the reliability and POD using Model Assisted POD (MAPOD), Simulation Assisted POD (SAPOD), and applying Bayesian Statistics. All and each of these developments had one objective, i.e., improving accuracy of life prediction in components that to a large extent depends on the reliability and capability of NDE methods. Therefore, it is essential to have a reliable detection and sizing of large flaws in components. Currently, POD is used for studying reliability and capability of NDE methods, though POD data offers no absolute truth regarding NDE reliability, i.e., system capability, effects of flaw morphology, and quantifying the human factors. Furthermore, reliability and POD have been reported alike in meaning but POD is not NDE reliability. POD is a subset of the reliability that consists of six phases: 1) samples selection using DOE, 2) NDE equipment setup and calibration, 3) System Measurement Evaluation (SME) including Gage Repeatability &Reproducibility (Gage R&R) and Analysis Of Variance (ANOVA), 4) NDE system capability and electronic and physical saturation, 5) acquiring and fitting data to a model, and data analysis, and 6) POD estimation. This paper provides an overview of all major POD milestones for the last several decades and discuss rationale for using Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME), MAPOD, SAPOD, and Bayesian statistics for studying controllable and non-controllable variables including human factors for estimating POD. Another objective is to list gaps between "hoped for" versus validated or fielded failed hardware.

Identification of reliable gridded reference data for statistical downscaling methods in Alberta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eum, H. I.; Gupta, A.

2017-12-01

Climate models provide essential information to assess impacts of climate change at regional and global scales. However, statistical downscaling methods have been applied to prepare climate model data for various applications such as hydrologic and ecologic modelling at a watershed scale. As the reliability and (spatial and temporal) resolution of statistically downscaled climate data mainly depend on a reference data, identifying the most reliable reference data is crucial for statistical downscaling. A growing number of gridded climate products are available for key climate variables which are main input data to regional modelling systems. However, inconsistencies in these climate products, for example, different combinations of climate variables, varying data domains and data lengths and data accuracy varying with physiographic characteristics of the landscape, have caused significant challenges in selecting the most suitable reference climate data for various environmental studies and modelling. Employing various observation-based daily gridded climate products available in public domain, i.e. thin plate spline regression products (ANUSPLIN and TPS), inverse distance method (Alberta Townships), and numerical climate model (North American Regional Reanalysis) and an optimum interpolation technique (Canadian Precipitation Analysis), this study evaluates the accuracy of the climate products at each grid point by comparing with the Adjusted and Homogenized Canadian Climate Data (AHCCD) observations for precipitation, minimum and maximum temperature over the province of Alberta. Based on the performance of climate products at AHCCD stations, we ranked the reliability of these publically available climate products corresponding to the elevations of stations discretized into several classes. According to the rank of climate products for each elevation class, we identified the most reliable climate products based on the elevation of target points. A web-based system was developed to allow users to easily select the most reliable reference climate data at each target point based on the elevation of grid cell. By constructing the best combination of reference data for the study domain, the accurate and reliable statistically downscaled climate projections could be significantly improved.

Reliability-Based Design Optimization of a Composite Airframe Component

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Patnaik, Surya N.; Pai, Shantaram S.; Coroneos, Rula M.

2009-01-01

A stochastic design optimization methodology (SDO) has been developed to design components of an airframe structure that can be made of metallic and composite materials. The design is obtained as a function of the risk level, or reliability, p. The design method treats uncertainties in load, strength, and material properties as distribution functions, which are defined with mean values and standard deviations. A design constraint or a failure mode is specified as a function of reliability p. Solution to stochastic optimization yields the weight of a structure as a function of reliability p. Optimum weight versus reliability p traced out an inverted-S-shaped graph. The center of the inverted-S graph corresponded to 50 percent (p = 0.5) probability of success. A heavy design with weight approaching infinity could be produced for a near-zero rate of failure that corresponds to unity for reliability p (or p = 1). Weight can be reduced to a small value for the most failure-prone design with a reliability that approaches zero (p = 0). Reliability can be changed for different components of an airframe structure. For example, the landing gear can be designed for a very high reliability, whereas it can be reduced to a small extent for a raked wingtip. The SDO capability is obtained by combining three codes: (1) The MSC/Nastran code was the deterministic analysis tool, (2) The fast probabilistic integrator, or the FPI module of the NESSUS software, was the probabilistic calculator, and (3) NASA Glenn Research Center s optimization testbed CometBoards became the optimizer. The SDO capability requires a finite element structural model, a material model, a load model, and a design model. The stochastic optimization concept is illustrated considering an academic example and a real-life raked wingtip structure of the Boeing 767-400 extended range airliner made of metallic and composite materials.

The Psychometric Evaluation of the Connor-Davidson Resilience Scale Using a Chinese Military Sample

PubMed Central

Xie, Yuanjun; Peng, Li; Zuo, Xin; Li, Min

2016-01-01

This study examined the psychometric properties of the Connor-Davidson Resilience Scale (CD-RISC) with a Chinese military population with the aim of finding a suitable instrument to quantify resilience in Chinese military service members. The confirmatory factor analysis results did not support the factorial structure of the original or the Chinese community version of the CD-RISC, but the exploratory factor analysis results revealed a three-factor model (composed of Competency, Toughness, and Adaptability) that seemed to fit. Moreover, the repeat confirmatory factory analysis replicated the three-factor model. Additionally, the CD-RISC with a Chinese military sample exhibited appropriate psychometric properties, including internal consistency, test-retest reliability, and structural and concurrent validity. The revised CD-RISC with a Chinese military sample provides insight into the resilience measurement framework and could be a reliable and valid measurement for evaluating resilience in a Chinese military population. PMID:26859484

A new framework for comprehensive, robust, and efficient global sensitivity analysis: 2. Application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Razavi, Saman; Gupta, Hoshin V.

2016-01-01

Based on the theoretical framework for sensitivity analysis called "Variogram Analysis of Response Surfaces" (VARS), developed in the companion paper, we develop and implement a practical "star-based" sampling strategy (called STAR-VARS), for the application of VARS to real-world problems. We also develop a bootstrap approach to provide confidence level estimates for the VARS sensitivity metrics and to evaluate the reliability of inferred factor rankings. The effectiveness, efficiency, and robustness of STAR-VARS are demonstrated via two real-data hydrological case studies (a 5-parameter conceptual rainfall-runoff model and a 45-parameter land surface scheme hydrology model), and a comparison with the "derivative-based" Morris and "variance-based" Sobol approaches are provided. Our results show that STAR-VARS provides reliable and stable assessments of "global" sensitivity across the full range of scales in the factor space, while being 1-2 orders of magnitude more efficient than the Morris or Sobol approaches.

Measuring ability to assess claims about treatment effects: a latent trait analysis of items from the 'Claim Evaluation Tools' database using Rasch modelling.

PubMed

Austvoll-Dahlgren, Astrid; Guttersrud, Øystein; Nsangi, Allen; Semakula, Daniel; Oxman, Andrew D

2017-05-25

The Claim Evaluation Tools database contains multiple-choice items for measuring people's ability to apply the key concepts they need to know to be able to assess treatment claims. We assessed items from the database using Rasch analysis to develop an outcome measure to be used in two randomised trials in Uganda. Rasch analysis is a form of psychometric testing relying on Item Response Theory. It is a dynamic way of developing outcome measures that are valid and reliable. To assess the validity, reliability and responsiveness of 88 items addressing 22 key concepts using Rasch analysis. We administrated four sets of multiple-choice items in English to 1114 people in Uganda and Norway, of which 685 were children and 429 were adults (including 171 health professionals). We scored all items dichotomously. We explored summary and individual fit statistics using the RUMM2030 analysis package. We used SPSS to perform distractor analysis. Most items conformed well to the Rasch model, but some items needed revision. Overall, the four item sets had satisfactory reliability. We did not identify significant response dependence between any pairs of items and, overall, the magnitude of multidimensionality in the data was acceptable. The items had a high level of difficulty. Most of the items conformed well to the Rasch model's expectations. Following revision of some items, we concluded that most of the items were suitable for use in an outcome measure for evaluating the ability of children or adults to assess treatment claims. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Rasch analysis of Stamps's Index of Work Satisfaction in nursing population.

PubMed

Ahmad, Nora; Oranye, Nelson Ositadimma; Danilov, Alyona

2017-01-01

One of the most commonly used tools for measuring job satisfaction in nursing is the Stamps Index of Work Satisfaction. Several studies have reported on the reliability of the Stamps' tool based on traditional statistical model. The aim of this study was to apply the Rasch model to examine the adequacy of Stamps's Index of Work Satisfaction for measuring nurses' job satisfaction cross-culturally and to determine the validity and reliability of the instrument using the Rasch criteria. A secondary data analysis was conducted on a sample of 556 registered nurses from two countries. The RUMM 2030 software was used to analyse the psychometric properties of the Index of Work Satisfaction. The persons mean location of -0.018 approximated the items mean of 0.00, suggesting a good alignment of the measure and the traits being measured. However, at the items level, some items were misfiting to the Rasch model.

Rasch Analysis of the 9-Item Shared Decision Making Questionnaire in Women With Breast Cancer.

PubMed

Wu, Tzu-Yi; Chen, Cheng-Te; Huang, Yi-Jing; Hou, Wen-Hsuan; Wang, Jung-Der; Hsieh, Ching-Lin

2018-04-19

Shared decision making (SDM) is a best practice to help patients make optimal decisions by a process of healthcare, especially for women diagnosed with breast cancer and having heavy burden in long-term treatments. To promote successful SDM, it is crucial to assess the level of perceived involvement in SDM in women with breast cancer. The aims of this study were to apply Rasch analysis to examine the construct validity and person reliability of the 9-item Shared Decision Making Questionnaire (SDM-Q-9) in women with breast cancer. The construct validity of SDM-Q-9 was confirmed when the items fit the Rasch model's assumptions of unidimensionality: (1) infit and outfit mean square ranged from 0.6 to 1.4; (2) the unexplained variance of the first dimension of the principal component analysis was less than 20%. Person reliability was calculated. A total of 212 participants were recruited in this study. Item 1 did not fit the model's assumptions and was deleted. The unidimensionality of the remaining 8 items (SDM-Q-8) was supported with good item fit (infit and outfit mean square ranging from 0.6 to 1.3) and very low unexplained variance of the first dimension (5.3%) of the principal component analysis. The person reliability of the SDM-Q-8 was 0.90. The SDM-Q-8 was unidimensional and had good person reliability in women with breast cancer. The SDM-Q-8 has shown its potential for assessing the level of perceived involvement in SDM in women with breast cancer for both research and clinical purposes.

The reliability of the Adelaide in-shoe foot model.

PubMed

Bishop, Chris; Hillier, Susan; Thewlis, Dominic

2017-07-01

Understanding the biomechanics of the foot is essential for many areas of research and clinical practice such as orthotic interventions and footwear development. Despite the widespread attention paid to the biomechanics of the foot during gait, what largely remains unknown is how the foot moves inside the shoe. This study investigated the reliability of the Adelaide In-Shoe Foot Model, which was designed to quantify in-shoe foot kinematics and kinetics during walking. Intra-rater reliability was assessed in 30 participants over five walking trials whilst wearing shoes during two data collection sessions, separated by one week. Sufficient reliability for use was interpreted as a coefficient of multiple correlation and intra-class correlation coefficient of >0.61. Inter-rater reliability was investigated separately in a second sample of 10 adults by two researchers with experience in applying markers for the purpose of motion analysis. The results indicated good consistency in waveform estimation for most kinematic and kinetic data, as well as good inter-and intra-rater reliability. The exception is the peak medial ground reaction force, the minimum abduction angle and the peak abduction/adduction external hindfoot joint moments which resulted in less than acceptable repeatability. Based on our results, the Adelaide in-shoe foot model can be used with confidence for 24 commonly measured biomechanical variables during shod walking. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Rater reliability and construct validity of a mobile application for posture analysis

PubMed Central

Szucs, Kimberly A.; Brown, Elena V. Donoso

2018-01-01

[Purpose] Measurement of posture is important for those with a clinical diagnosis as well as researchers aiming to understand the impact of faulty postures on the development of musculoskeletal disorders. A reliable, cost-effective and low tech posture measure may be beneficial for research and clinical applications. The purpose of this study was to determine rater reliability and construct validity of a posture screening mobile application in healthy young adults. [Subjects and Methods] Pictures of subjects were taken in three standing positions. Two raters independently digitized the static standing posture image twice. The app calculated posture variables, including sagittal and coronal plane translations and angulations. Intra- and inter-rater reliability were calculated using the appropriate ICC models for complete agreement. Construct validity was determined through comparison of known groups using repeated measures ANOVA. [Results] Intra-rater reliability ranged from 0.71 to 0.99. Inter-rater reliability was good to excellent for all translations. ICCs were stronger for translations versus angulations. The construct validity analysis found that the app was able to detect the change in the four variables selected. [Conclusion] The posture mobile application has demonstrated strong rater reliability and preliminary evidence of construct validity. This application may have utility in clinical and research settings. PMID:29410561

Rater reliability and construct validity of a mobile application for posture analysis.

PubMed

Szucs, Kimberly A; Brown, Elena V Donoso

2018-01-01

[Purpose] Measurement of posture is important for those with a clinical diagnosis as well as researchers aiming to understand the impact of faulty postures on the development of musculoskeletal disorders. A reliable, cost-effective and low tech posture measure may be beneficial for research and clinical applications. The purpose of this study was to determine rater reliability and construct validity of a posture screening mobile application in healthy young adults. [Subjects and Methods] Pictures of subjects were taken in three standing positions. Two raters independently digitized the static standing posture image twice. The app calculated posture variables, including sagittal and coronal plane translations and angulations. Intra- and inter-rater reliability were calculated using the appropriate ICC models for complete agreement. Construct validity was determined through comparison of known groups using repeated measures ANOVA. [Results] Intra-rater reliability ranged from 0.71 to 0.99. Inter-rater reliability was good to excellent for all translations. ICCs were stronger for translations versus angulations. The construct validity analysis found that the app was able to detect the change in the four variables selected. [Conclusion] The posture mobile application has demonstrated strong rater reliability and preliminary evidence of construct validity. This application may have utility in clinical and research settings.

A new lifetime estimation model for a quicker LED reliability prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamon, B. H.; Mendizabal, L.; Feuillet, G.; Gasse, A.; Bataillou, B.

2014-09-01

LED reliability and lifetime prediction is a key point for Solid State Lighting adoption. For this purpose, one hundred and fifty LEDs have been aged for a reliability analysis. LEDs have been grouped following nine current-temperature stress conditions. Stress driving current was fixed between 350mA and 1A and ambient temperature between 85C and 120°C. Using integrating sphere and I(V) measurements, a cross study of the evolution of electrical and optical characteristics has been done. Results show two main failure mechanisms regarding lumen maintenance. The first one is the typically observed lumen depreciation and the second one is a much more quicker depreciation related to an increase of the leakage and non radiative currents. Models of the typical lumen depreciation and leakage resistance depreciation have been made using electrical and optical measurements during the aging tests. The combination of those models allows a new method toward a quicker LED lifetime prediction. These two models have been used for lifetime predictions for LEDs.

Modeling of the thermal physical process and study on the reliability of linear energy density for selective laser melting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiang, Zhaowei; Yin, Ming; Dong, Guanhua; Mei, Xiaoqin; Yin, Guofu

2018-06-01

A finite element model considering volume shrinkage with powder-to-dense process of powder layer in selective laser melting (SLM) is established. Comparison between models that consider and do not consider volume shrinkage or powder-to-dense process is carried out. Further, parametric analysis of laser power and scan speed is conducted and the reliability of linear energy density as a design parameter is investigated. The results show that the established model is an effective method and has better accuracy allowing for the temperature distribution, and the length and depth of molten pool. The maximum temperature is more sensitive to laser power than scan speed. The maximum heating rate and cooling rate increase with increasing scan speed at constant laser power and increase with increasing laser power at constant scan speed as well. The simulation results and experimental result reveal that linear energy density is not always reliable using as a design parameter in the SLM.

Web-video-mining-supported workflow modeling for laparoscopic surgeries.

PubMed

Liu, Rui; Zhang, Xiaoli; Zhang, Hao

2016-11-01

As quality assurance is of strong concern in advanced surgeries, intelligent surgical systems are expected to have knowledge such as the knowledge of the surgical workflow model (SWM) to support their intuitive cooperation with surgeons. For generating a robust and reliable SWM, a large amount of training data is required. However, training data collected by physically recording surgery operations is often limited and data collection is time-consuming and labor-intensive, severely influencing knowledge scalability of the surgical systems. The objective of this research is to solve the knowledge scalability problem in surgical workflow modeling with a low cost and labor efficient way. A novel web-video-mining-supported surgical workflow modeling (webSWM) method is developed. A novel video quality analysis method based on topic analysis and sentiment analysis techniques is developed to select high-quality videos from abundant and noisy web videos. A statistical learning method is then used to build the workflow model based on the selected videos. To test the effectiveness of the webSWM method, 250 web videos were mined to generate a surgical workflow for the robotic cholecystectomy surgery. The generated workflow was evaluated by 4 web-retrieved videos and 4 operation-room-recorded videos, respectively. The evaluation results (video selection consistency n-index ≥0.60; surgical workflow matching degree ≥0.84) proved the effectiveness of the webSWM method in generating robust and reliable SWM knowledge by mining web videos. With the webSWM method, abundant web videos were selected and a reliable SWM was modeled in a short time with low labor cost. Satisfied performances in mining web videos and learning surgery-related knowledge show that the webSWM method is promising in scaling knowledge for intelligent surgical systems. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Measurements using orthodontic analysis software on digital models obtained by 3D scans of plaster casts : Intrarater reliability and validity.

PubMed

Czarnota, Judith; Hey, Jeremias; Fuhrmann, Robert

2016-01-01

The purpose of this work was to determine the reliability and validity of measurements performed on digital models with a desktop scanner and analysis software in comparison with measurements performed manually on conventional plaster casts. A total of 20 pairs of plaster casts reflecting the intraoral conditions of 20 fully dentate individuals were digitized using a three-dimensional scanner (D700; 3Shape). A series of defined parameters were measured both on the resultant digital models with analysis software (Ortho Analyzer; 3Shape) and on the original plaster casts with a digital caliper (Digimatic CD-15DCX; Mitutoyo). Both measurement series were repeated twice and analyzed for intrarater reliability based on intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs). The results from the digital models were evaluated for their validity against the casts by calculating mean-value differences and associated 95 % limits of agreement (Bland-Altman method). Statistically significant differences were identified via a paired t test. Significant differences were obtained for 16 of 24 tooth-width measurements, for 2 of 5 sites of contact-point displacement in the mandibular anterior segment, for overbite, for maxillary intermolar distance, for Little's irregularity index, and for the summation indices of maxillary and mandibular incisor width. Overall, however, both the mean differences between the results obtained on the digital models versus on the plaster casts and the dispersion ranges associated with these differences suggest that the deviations incurred by the digital measuring technique are not clinically significant. Digital models are adequately reproducible and valid to be employed for routine measurements in orthodontic practice.

Reliability analysis of single crystal NiAl turbine blades

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Salem, Jonathan; Noebe, Ronald; Wheeler, Donald R.; Holland, Fred; Palko, Joseph; Duffy, Stephen; Wright, P. Kennard

1995-01-01

As part of a co-operative agreement with General Electric Aircraft Engines (GEAE), NASA LeRC is modifying and validating the Ceramic Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures algorithm for use in design of components made of high strength NiAl based intermetallic materials. NiAl single crystal alloys are being actively investigated by GEAE as a replacement for Ni-based single crystal superalloys for use in high pressure turbine blades and vanes. The driving force for this research lies in the numerous property advantages offered by NiAl alloys over their superalloy counterparts. These include a reduction of density by as much as a third without significantly sacrificing strength, higher melting point, greater thermal conductivity, better oxidation resistance, and a better response to thermal barrier coatings. The current drawback to high strength NiAl single crystals is their limited ductility. Consequently, significant efforts including the work agreement with GEAE are underway to develop testing and design methodologies for these materials. The approach to validation and component analysis involves the following steps: determination of the statistical nature and source of fracture in a high strength, NiAl single crystal turbine blade material; measurement of the failure strength envelope of the material; coding of statistically based reliability models; verification of the code and model; and modeling of turbine blades and vanes for rig testing.

Accuracy and Reliability of Marker-Based Approaches to Scale the Pelvis, Thigh, and Shank Segments in Musculoskeletal Models.

PubMed

Kainz, Hans; Hoang, Hoa X; Stockton, Chris; Boyd, Roslyn R; Lloyd, David G; Carty, Christopher P

2017-10-01

Gait analysis together with musculoskeletal modeling is widely used for research. In the absence of medical images, surface marker locations are used to scale a generic model to the individual's anthropometry. Studies evaluating the accuracy and reliability of different scaling approaches in a pediatric and/or clinical population have not yet been conducted and, therefore, formed the aim of this study. Magnetic resonance images (MRI) and motion capture data were collected from 12 participants with cerebral palsy and 6 typically developed participants. Accuracy was assessed by comparing the scaled model's segment measures to the corresponding MRI measures, whereas reliability was assessed by comparing the model's segments scaled with the experimental marker locations from the first and second motion capture session. The inclusion of joint centers into the scaling process significantly increased the accuracy of thigh and shank segment length estimates compared to scaling with markers alone. Pelvis scaling approaches which included the pelvis depth measure led to the highest errors compared to the MRI measures. Reliability was similar between scaling approaches with mean ICC of 0.97. The pelvis should be scaled using pelvic width and height and the thigh and shank segment should be scaled using the proximal and distal joint centers.

Markov reward processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, R. M.

1991-01-01

Numerous applications in the area of computer system analysis can be effectively studied with Markov reward models. These models describe the behavior of the system with a continuous-time Markov chain, where a reward rate is associated with each state. In a reliability/availability model, upstates may have reward rate 1 and down states may have reward rate zero associated with them. In a queueing model, the number of jobs of certain type in a given state may be the reward rate attached to that state. In a combined model of performance and reliability, the reward rate of a state may be the computational capacity, or a related performance measure. Expected steady-state reward rate and expected instantaneous reward rate are clearly useful measures of the Markov reward model. More generally, the distribution of accumulated reward or time-averaged reward over a finite time interval may be determined from the solution of the Markov reward model. This information is of great practical significance in situations where the workload can be well characterized (deterministically, or by continuous functions e.g., distributions). The design process in the development of a computer system is an expensive and long term endeavor. For aerospace applications the reliability of the computer system is essential, as is the ability to complete critical workloads in a well defined real time interval. Consequently, effective modeling of such systems must take into account both performance and reliability. This fact motivates our use of Markov reward models to aid in the development and evaluation of fault tolerant computer systems.

Gearbox Reliability Collaborative Phase 3 Gearbox 3 Test

DOE Data Explorer

Keller, Jonathan (ORCID:0000000177243885)

2016-12-28

The GRC uses a combined gearbox testing, modeling, and analysis approach disseminating data and results to the industry and facilitating improvement of gearbox reliability. This test data describes the tests of GRC gearbox 3 in the National Wind Technology Center dynamometer and documents any modifications to the original test plan. It serves as a guide to interpret the publicly released data sets with brief analyses to illustrate the data. TDMS viewer and Solidworks software required to view data files. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) Gearbox Reliability Collaborative (GRC) was established by the U.S. Department of Energy in 2006; its key goal is to understand the root causes of premature gearbox failures and improve their reliability.

Gearbox Reliability Collaborative Phase 3 Gearbox 2 Test

DOE Data Explorer

Keller, Jonathan; Robb, Wallen

2016-05-12

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) Gearbox Reliability Collaborative (GRC) was established by the U.S. Department of Energy in 2006; its key goal is to understand the root causes of premature gearbox failures and improve their reliability. The GRC uses a combined gearbox testing, modeling, and analysis approach disseminating data and results to the industry and facilitating improvement of gearbox reliability. This test data describes the tests of GRC gearbox 2 in the National Wind Technology Center dynamometer and documents any modifications to the original test plan. It serves as a guide to interpret the publicly released data sets with brief analyses to illustrate the data. TDMS viewer and Solidworks software required to view data files.

Monolithic ceramic analysis using the SCARE program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Manderscheid, Jane M.

1988-01-01

The Structural Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation (SCARE) computer program calculates the fast fracture reliability of monolithic ceramic components. The code is a post-processor to the MSC/NASTRAN general purpose finite element program. The SCARE program automatically accepts the MSC/NASTRAN output necessary to compute reliability. This includes element stresses, temperatures, volumes, and areas. The SCARE program computes two-parameter Weibull strength distributions from input fracture data for both volume and surface flaws. The distributions can then be used to calculate the reliability of geometrically complex components subjected to multiaxial stress states. Several fracture criteria and flaw types are available for selection by the user, including out-of-plane crack extension theories. The theoretical basis for the reliability calculations was proposed by Batdorf. These models combine linear elastic fracture mechanics (LEFM) with Weibull statistics to provide a mechanistic failure criterion. Other fracture theories included in SCARE are the normal stress averaging technique and the principle of independent action. The objective of this presentation is to summarize these theories, including their limitations and advantages, and to provide a general description of the SCARE program, along with example problems.

Camera-tracking gaming control device for evaluation of active wrist flexion and extension.

PubMed

Shefer Eini, Dalit; Ratzon, Navah Z; Rizzo, Albert A; Yeh, Shih-Ching; Lange, Belinda; Yaffe, Batia; Daich, Alexander; Weiss, Patrice L; Kizony, Rachel

Cross sectional. Measuring wrist range of motion (ROM) is an essential procedure in hand therapy clinics. To test the reliability and validity of a dynamic ROM assessment, the Camera Wrist Tracker (CWT). Wrist flexion and extension ROM of 15 patients with distal radius fractures and 15 matched controls were assessed with the CWT and with a universal goniometer. One-way model intraclass correlation coefficient analysis indicated high test-retest reliability for extension (ICC = 0.92) and moderate reliability for flexion (ICC = 0.49). Standard error for extension was 2.45° and for flexion was 4.07°. Repeated-measures analysis revealed a significant main effect for group; ROM was greater in the control group (F[1, 28] = 47.35; P < .001). The concurrent validity of the CWT was partially supported. The results indicate that the CWT may provide highly reliable scores for dynamic wrist extension ROM, and moderately reliable scores for flexion, in people recovering from a distal radius fracture. N/A. Copyright © 2016 Hanley & Belfus. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Time-dependent reliability analysis of ceramic engine components

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nemeth, Noel N.

1993-01-01

The computer program CARES/LIFE calculates the time-dependent reliability of monolithic ceramic components subjected to thermomechanical and/or proof test loading. This program is an extension of the CARES (Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures) computer program. CARES/LIFE accounts for the phenomenon of subcritical crack growth (SCG) by utilizing either the power or Paris law relations. The two-parameter Weibull cumulative distribution function is used to characterize the variation in component strength. The effects of multiaxial stresses are modeled using either the principle of independent action (PIA), the Weibull normal stress averaging method (NSA), or the Batdorf theory. Inert strength and fatigue parameters are estimated from rupture strength data of naturally flawed specimens loaded in static, dynamic, or cyclic fatigue. Two example problems demonstrating proof testing and fatigue parameter estimation are given.

Thermo-Mechanical Modeling and Analysis for Turbopump Assemblies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Platt, Mike; Marsh, Matt

2003-01-01

Life, reliability, and cost are strongly impacted by steady and transient thermo-mechanical effect. Design cycle can suffer big setbacks when working a transient stress/deflection issue. Balance between objectives and constrains is always difficult. Requires assembly-level analysis early in the design cycle.

77 FR 10962 - Flazasulfuron; Pesticide Tolerances

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-02-24

.../water/index.htm . Based on the Pesticide Root Zone Model/Exposure Analysis Modeling System (PRZM/EXAMS... Classification System (NAICS) codes have been provided to assist you and others in determining whether this... reliable information.'' This includes exposure through drinking water and in residential settings, but does...

Segmental Musculoskeletal Examinations using Dual-Energy X-Ray Absorptiometry (DXA): Positioning and Analysis Considerations

PubMed Central

Hart, Nicolas H.; Nimphius, Sophia; Spiteri, Tania; Cochrane, Jodie L.; Newton, Robert U.

2015-01-01

Musculoskeletal examinations provide informative and valuable quantitative insight into muscle and bone health. DXA is one mainstream tool used to accurately and reliably determine body composition components and bone mass characteristics in-vivo. Presently, whole body scan models separate the body into axial and appendicular regions, however there is a need for localised appendicular segmentation models to further examine regions of interest within the upper and lower extremities. Similarly, inconsistencies pertaining to patient positioning exist in the literature which influence measurement precision and analysis outcomes highlighting a need for standardised procedure. This paper provides standardised and reproducible: 1) positioning and analysis procedures using DXA and 2) reliable segmental examinations through descriptive appendicular boundaries. Whole-body scans were performed on forty-six (n = 46) football athletes (age: 22.9 ± 4.3 yrs; height: 1.85 ± 0.07 cm; weight: 87.4 ± 10.3 kg; body fat: 11.4 ± 4.5 %) using DXA. All segments across all scans were analysed three times by the main investigator on three separate days, and by three independent investigators a week following the original analysis. To examine intra-rater and inter-rater, between day and researcher reliability, coefficients of variation (CV) and intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC) were determined. Positioning and segmental analysis procedures presented in this study produced very high, nearly perfect intra-tester (CV ≤ 2.0%; ICC ≥ 0.988) and inter-tester (CV ≤ 2.4%; ICC ≥ 0.980) reliability, demonstrating excellent reproducibility within and between practitioners. Standardised examinations of axial and appendicular segments are necessary. Future studies aiming to quantify and report segmental analyses of the upper- and lower-body musculoskeletal properties using whole-body DXA scans are encouraged to use the patient positioning and image analysis procedures outlined in this paper. Key points Musculoskeletal examinations using DXA technology require highly standardised and reproducible patient positioning and image analysis procedures to accurately measure and monitor axial, appendicular and segmental regions of interest. Internal rotation and fixation of the lower-limbs is strongly recommended during whole-body DXA scans to prevent undesired movement, improve frontal mass accessibility and enhance ankle joint visibility during scan performance and analysis. Appendicular segmental analyses using whole-body DXA scans are highly reliable for all regional upper-body and lower-body segmentations, with hard-tissue (CV ≤ 1.5%; R ≥ 0.990) achieving greater reliability and lower error than soft-tissue (CV ≤ 2.4%; R ≥ 0.980) masses when using our appendicular segmental boundaries. PMID:26336349

Three real-time architectures - A study using reward models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sjogren, J. A.; Smith, R. M.

1990-01-01

Numerous applications in the area of computer system analysis can be effectively studied with Markov reward models. These models describe the evolutionary behavior of the computer system by a continuous-time Markov chain, and a reward rate is associated with each state. In reliability/availability models, upstates have reward rate 1, and down states have reward rate zero associated with them. In a combined model of performance and reliability, the reward rate of a state may be the computational capacity, or a related performance measure. Steady-state expected reward rate and expected instantaneous reward rate are clearly useful measures which can be extracted from the Markov reward model. The diversity of areas where Markov reward models may be used is illustrated with a comparative study of three examples of interest to the fault tolerant computing community.

Reliability analysis of a robotic system using hybridized technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Naveen; Komal; Lather, J. S.

2017-09-01

In this manuscript, the reliability of a robotic system has been analyzed using the available data (containing vagueness, uncertainty, etc). Quantification of involved uncertainties is done through data fuzzification using triangular fuzzy numbers with known spreads as suggested by system experts. With fuzzified data, if the existing fuzzy lambda-tau (FLT) technique is employed, then the computed reliability parameters have wide range of predictions. Therefore, decision-maker cannot suggest any specific and influential managerial strategy to prevent unexpected failures and consequently to improve complex system performance. To overcome this problem, the present study utilizes a hybridized technique. With this technique, fuzzy set theory is utilized to quantify uncertainties, fault tree is utilized for the system modeling, lambda-tau method is utilized to formulate mathematical expressions for failure/repair rates of the system, and genetic algorithm is utilized to solve established nonlinear programming problem. Different reliability parameters of a robotic system are computed and the results are compared with the existing technique. The components of the robotic system follow exponential distribution, i.e., constant. Sensitivity analysis is also performed and impact on system mean time between failures (MTBF) is addressed by varying other reliability parameters. Based on analysis some influential suggestions are given to improve the system performance.

Robust Linear Models for Cis-eQTL Analysis.

PubMed

Rantalainen, Mattias; Lindgren, Cecilia M; Holmes, Christopher C

2015-01-01

Expression Quantitative Trait Loci (eQTL) analysis enables characterisation of functional genetic variation influencing expression levels of individual genes. In outbread populations, including humans, eQTLs are commonly analysed using the conventional linear model, adjusting for relevant covariates, assuming an allelic dosage model and a Gaussian error term. However, gene expression data generally have noise that induces heavy-tailed errors relative to the Gaussian distribution and often include atypical observations, or outliers. Such departures from modelling assumptions can lead to an increased rate of type II errors (false negatives), and to some extent also type I errors (false positives). Careful model checking can reduce the risk of type-I errors but often not type II errors, since it is generally too time-consuming to carefully check all models with a non-significant effect in large-scale and genome-wide studies. Here we propose the application of a robust linear model for eQTL analysis to reduce adverse effects of deviations from the assumption of Gaussian residuals. We present results from a simulation study as well as results from the analysis of real eQTL data sets. Our findings suggest that in many situations robust models have the potential to provide more reliable eQTL results compared to conventional linear models, particularly in respect to reducing type II errors due to non-Gaussian noise. Post-genomic data, such as that generated in genome-wide eQTL studies, are often noisy and frequently contain atypical observations. Robust statistical models have the potential to provide more reliable results and increased statistical power under non-Gaussian conditions. The results presented here suggest that robust models should be considered routinely alongside other commonly used methodologies for eQTL analysis.

An Acoustic Charge Transport Imager for High Definition Television Applications: Reliability Modeling and Parametric Yield Prediction of GaAs Multiple Quantum Well Avalanche Photodiodes. Degree awarded Oct. 1997

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hunt, W. D.; Brennan, K. F.; Summers, C. J.; Yun, Ilgu

1994-01-01

Reliability modeling and parametric yield prediction of GaAs/AlGaAs multiple quantum well (MQW) avalanche photodiodes (APDs), which are of interest as an ultra-low noise image capture mechanism for high definition systems, have been investigated. First, the effect of various doping methods on the reliability of GaAs/AlGaAs multiple quantum well (MQW) avalanche photodiode (APD) structures fabricated by molecular beam epitaxy is investigated. Reliability is examined by accelerated life tests by monitoring dark current and breakdown voltage. Median device lifetime and the activation energy of the degradation mechanism are computed for undoped, doped-barrier, and doped-well APD structures. Lifetimes for each device structure are examined via a statistically designed experiment. Analysis of variance shows that dark-current is affected primarily by device diameter, temperature and stressing time, and breakdown voltage depends on the diameter, stressing time and APD type. It is concluded that the undoped APD has the highest reliability, followed by the doped well and doped barrier devices, respectively. To determine the source of the degradation mechanism for each device structure, failure analysis using the electron-beam induced current method is performed. This analysis reveals some degree of device degradation caused by ionic impurities in the passivation layer, and energy-dispersive spectrometry subsequently verified the presence of ionic sodium as the primary contaminant. However, since all device structures are similarly passivated, sodium contamination alone does not account for the observed variation between the differently doped APDs. This effect is explained by the dopant migration during stressing, which is verified by free carrier concentration measurements using the capacitance-voltage technique.

Reliability- and performance-based robust design optimization of MEMS structures considering technological uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martowicz, Adam; Uhl, Tadeusz

2012-10-01

The paper discusses the applicability of a reliability- and performance-based multi-criteria robust design optimization technique for micro-electromechanical systems, considering their technological uncertainties. Nowadays, micro-devices are commonly applied systems, especially in the automotive industry, taking advantage of utilizing both the mechanical structure and electronic control circuit on one board. Their frequent use motivates the elaboration of virtual prototyping tools that can be applied in design optimization with the introduction of technological uncertainties and reliability. The authors present a procedure for the optimization of micro-devices, which is based on the theory of reliability-based robust design optimization. This takes into consideration the performance of a micro-device and its reliability assessed by means of uncertainty analysis. The procedure assumes that, for each checked design configuration, the assessment of uncertainty propagation is performed with the meta-modeling technique. The described procedure is illustrated with an example of the optimization carried out for a finite element model of a micro-mirror. The multi-physics approach allowed the introduction of several physical phenomena to correctly model the electrostatic actuation and the squeezing effect present between electrodes. The optimization was preceded by sensitivity analysis to establish the design and uncertain domains. The genetic algorithms fulfilled the defined optimization task effectively. The best discovered individuals are characterized by a minimized value of the multi-criteria objective function, simultaneously satisfying the constraint on material strength. The restriction of the maximum equivalent stresses was introduced with the conditionally formulated objective function with a penalty component. The yielded results were successfully verified with a global uniform search through the input design domain.

Using Rasch Analysis to Evaluate the Reliability and Validity of the Swallowing Quality of Life Questionnaire: An Item Response Theory Approach.

PubMed

Cordier, Reinie; Speyer, Renée; Schindler, Antonio; Michou, Emilia; Heijnen, Bas Joris; Baijens, Laura; Karaduman, Ayşe; Swan, Katina; Clavé, Pere; Joosten, Annette Veronica

2018-02-01

The Swallowing Quality of Life questionnaire (SWAL-QOL) is widely used clinically and in research to evaluate quality of life related to swallowing difficulties. It has been described as a valid and reliable tool, but was developed and tested using classic test theory. This study describes the reliability and validity of the SWAL-QOL using item response theory (IRT; Rasch analysis). SWAL-QOL data were gathered from 507 participants at risk of oropharyngeal dysphagia (OD) across four European countries. OD was confirmed in 75.7% of participants via videofluoroscopy and/or fiberoptic endoscopic evaluation, or a clinical diagnosis based on meeting selected criteria. Patients with esophageal dysphagia were excluded. Data were analysed using Rasch analysis. Item and person reliability was good for all the items combined. However, person reliability was poor for 8 subscales and item reliability was poor for one subscale. Eight subscales exhibited poor person separation and two exhibited poor item separation. Overall item and person fit statistics were acceptable. However, at an individual item fit level results indicated unpredictable item responses for 28 items, and item redundancy for 10 items. The item-person dimensionality map confirmed these findings. Results from the overall Rasch model fit and Principal Component Analysis were suggestive of a second dimension. For all the items combined, none of the item categories were 'category', 'threshold' or 'step' disordered; however, all subscales demonstrated category disordered functioning. Findings suggest an urgent need to further investigate the underlying structure of the SWAL-QOL and its psychometric characteristics using IRT.

Big data analytics for the Future Circular Collider reliability and availability studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Begy, Volodimir; Apollonio, Andrea; Gutleber, Johannes; Martin-Marquez, Manuel; Niemi, Arto; Penttinen, Jussi-Pekka; Rogova, Elena; Romero-Marin, Antonio; Sollander, Peter

2017-10-01

Responding to the European Strategy for Particle Physics update 2013, the Future Circular Collider study explores scenarios of circular frontier colliders for the post-LHC era. One branch of the study assesses industrial approaches to model and simulate the reliability and availability of the entire particle collider complex based on the continuous monitoring of CERN’s accelerator complex operation. The modelling is based on an in-depth study of the CERN injector chain and LHC, and is carried out as a cooperative effort with the HL-LHC project. The work so far has revealed that a major challenge is obtaining accelerator monitoring and operational data with sufficient quality, to automate the data quality annotation and calculation of reliability distribution functions for systems, subsystems and components where needed. A flexible data management and analytics environment that permits integrating the heterogeneous data sources, the domain-specific data quality management algorithms and the reliability modelling and simulation suite is a key enabler to complete this accelerator operation study. This paper describes the Big Data infrastructure and analytics ecosystem that has been put in operation at CERN, serving as the foundation on which reliability and availability analysis and simulations can be built. This contribution focuses on data infrastructure and data management aspects and presents case studies chosen for its validation.

Participation in Decision Making as a Property of Complex Adaptive Systems: Developing and Testing a Measure

PubMed Central

Anderson, Ruth A.; Hsieh, Pi-Ching; Su, Hui Fang; Landerman, Lawrence R.; McDaniel, Reuben R.

2013-01-01

Objectives. To (1) describe participation in decision-making as a systems-level property of complex adaptive systems and (2) present empirical evidence of reliability and validity of a corresponding measure. Method. Study 1 was a mail survey of a single respondent (administrators or directors of nursing) in each of 197 nursing homes. Study 2 was a field study using random, proportionally stratified sampling procedure that included 195 organizations with 3,968 respondents. Analysis. In Study 1, we analyzed the data to reduce the number of scale items and establish initial reliability and validity. In Study 2, we strengthened the psychometric test using a large sample. Results. Results demonstrated validity and reliability of the participation in decision-making instrument (PDMI) while measuring participation of workers in two distinct job categories (RNs and CNAs). We established reliability at the organizational level aggregated items scores. We established validity of the multidimensional properties using convergent and discriminant validity and confirmatory factor analysis. Conclusions. Participation in decision making, when modeled as a systems-level property of organization, has multiple dimensions and is more complex than is being traditionally measured. Managers can use this model to form decision teams that maximize the depth and breadth of expertise needed and to foster connection among them. PMID:24349771

Parent-reported social support for child's fruit and vegetable intake: validity of measures.

PubMed

Dave, Jayna M; Evans, Alexandra E; Condrasky, Marge D; Williams, Joel E

2012-01-01

To develop and validate measures of parental social support to increase their child's fruit and vegetable (FV) consumption. Cross-sectional study design. School and home. Two hundred three parents with at least 1 elementary school-aged child. Parents completed a questionnaire that included instrumental social support scale (ISSPS), emotional social support scale (ESSPS), household FV availability and accessibility index, and demographics. Exploratory factor analysis with promax rotation was conducted to obtain the psychometric properties of ISSPS and ESSPS. Internal consistency and test-retest reliabilities were also assessed. Factor analysis indicated a 4-factor model for ESSPS: positive encouragement, negative role modeling, discouragement, and an item cluster called reinforcement. Psychometric properties indicated that ISSPS performed best as independent single scales with α = .87. Internal consistency reliabilities were acceptable, and test-retest reliabilities ranged from low to acceptable. Correlations between scales, subscales, and item clusters were significant (P < .05). In addition, ISSPS and the positive encouragement subscale were significantly correlated with household FV availability. The ISSPS and ESSPS subscales demonstrated good internal consistency reliability and are suitable for impact assessment of an intervention designed to target parents to help their children eat more fruit and vegetables. Copyright © 2012 Society for Nutrition Education and Behavior. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Participation in decision making as a property of complex adaptive systems: developing and testing a measure.

PubMed

Anderson, Ruth A; Plowman, Donde; Corazzini, Kirsten; Hsieh, Pi-Ching; Su, Hui Fang; Landerman, Lawrence R; McDaniel, Reuben R

2013-01-01

Objectives. To (1) describe participation in decision-making as a systems-level property of complex adaptive systems and (2) present empirical evidence of reliability and validity of a corresponding measure. Method. Study 1 was a mail survey of a single respondent (administrators or directors of nursing) in each of 197 nursing homes. Study 2 was a field study using random, proportionally stratified sampling procedure that included 195 organizations with 3,968 respondents. Analysis. In Study 1, we analyzed the data to reduce the number of scale items and establish initial reliability and validity. In Study 2, we strengthened the psychometric test using a large sample. Results. Results demonstrated validity and reliability of the participation in decision-making instrument (PDMI) while measuring participation of workers in two distinct job categories (RNs and CNAs). We established reliability at the organizational level aggregated items scores. We established validity of the multidimensional properties using convergent and discriminant validity and confirmatory factor analysis. Conclusions. Participation in decision making, when modeled as a systems-level property of organization, has multiple dimensions and is more complex than is being traditionally measured. Managers can use this model to form decision teams that maximize the depth and breadth of expertise needed and to foster connection among them.

A hierarchical approach to reliability modeling of fault-tolerant systems. M.S. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gossman, W. E.

1986-01-01

A methodology for performing fault tolerant system reliability analysis is presented. The method decomposes a system into its subsystems, evaluates vent rates derived from the subsystem's conditional state probability vector and incorporates those results into a hierarchical Markov model of the system. This is done in a manner that addresses failure sequence dependence associated with the system's redundancy management strategy. The method is derived for application to a specific system definition. Results are presented that compare the hierarchical model's unreliability prediction to that of a more complicated tandard Markov model of the system. The results for the example given indicate that the hierarchical method predicts system unreliability to a desirable level of accuracy while achieving significant computational savings relative to component level Markov model of the system.

Generalized Reliability Methodology Applied to Brittle Anisotropic Single Crystals. Degree awarded by Washington Univ., 1999

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Salem, Jonathan A.

2002-01-01

A generalized reliability model was developed for use in the design of structural components made from brittle, homogeneous anisotropic materials such as single crystals. The model is based on the Weibull distribution and incorporates a variable strength distribution and any equivalent stress failure criteria. In addition to the reliability model, an energy based failure criterion for elastically anisotropic materials was formulated. The model is different from typical Weibull-based models in that it accounts for strength anisotropy arising from fracture toughness anisotropy and thereby allows for strength and reliability predictions of brittle, anisotropic single crystals subjected to multiaxial stresses. The model is also applicable to elastically isotropic materials exhibiting strength anisotropy due to an anisotropic distribution of flaws. In order to develop and experimentally verify the model, the uniaxial and biaxial strengths of a single crystal nickel aluminide were measured. The uniaxial strengths of the <100> and <110> crystal directions were measured in three and four-point flexure. The biaxial strength was measured by subjecting <100> plates to a uniform pressure in a test apparatus that was developed and experimentally verified. The biaxial strengths of the single crystal plates were estimated by extending and verifying the displacement solution for a circular, anisotropic plate to the case of a variable radius and thickness. The best correlation between the experimental strength data and the model predictions occurred when an anisotropic stress analysis was combined with the normal stress criterion and the strength parameters associated with the <110> crystal direction.

Separating Common from Unique Variance Within Emotional Distress: An Examination of Reliability and Relations to Worry.

PubMed

Marshall, Andrew J; Evanovich, Emma K; David, Sarah Jo; Mumma, Gregory H

2018-01-17

High comorbidity rates among emotional disorders have led researchers to examine transdiagnostic factors that may contribute to shared psychopathology. Bifactor models provide a unique method for examining transdiagnostic variables by modelling the common and unique factors within measures. Previous findings suggest that the bifactor model of the Depression Anxiety and Stress Scale (DASS) may provide a method for examining transdiagnostic factors within emotional disorders. This study aimed to replicate the bifactor model of the DASS, a multidimensional measure of psychological distress, within a US adult sample and provide initial estimates of the reliability of the general and domain-specific factors. Furthermore, this study hypothesized that Worry, a theorized transdiagnostic variable, would show stronger relations to general emotional distress than domain-specific subscales. Confirmatory factor analysis was used to evaluate the bifactor model structure of the DASS in 456 US adult participants (279 females and 177 males, mean age 35.9 years) recruited online. The DASS bifactor model fitted well (CFI = 0.98; RMSEA = 0.05). The General Emotional Distress factor accounted for most of the reliable variance in item scores. Domain-specific subscales accounted for modest portions of reliable variance in items after accounting for the general scale. Finally, structural equation modelling indicated that Worry was strongly predicted by the General Emotional Distress factor. The DASS bifactor model is generalizable to a US community sample and General Emotional Distress, but not domain-specific factors, strongly predict the transdiagnostic variable Worry.

Linear and evolutionary polynomial regression models to forecast coastal dynamics: Comparison and reliability assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bruno, Delia Evelina; Barca, Emanuele; Goncalves, Rodrigo Mikosz; de Araujo Queiroz, Heithor Alexandre; Berardi, Luigi; Passarella, Giuseppe

2018-01-01

In this paper, the Evolutionary Polynomial Regression data modelling strategy has been applied to study small scale, short-term coastal morphodynamics, given its capability for treating a wide database of known information, non-linearly. Simple linear and multilinear regression models were also applied to achieve a balance between the computational load and reliability of estimations of the three models. In fact, even though it is easy to imagine that the more complex the model, the more the prediction improves, sometimes a "slight" worsening of estimations can be accepted in exchange for the time saved in data organization and computational load. The models' outcomes were validated through a detailed statistical, error analysis, which revealed a slightly better estimation of the polynomial model with respect to the multilinear model, as expected. On the other hand, even though the data organization was identical for the two models, the multilinear one required a simpler simulation setting and a faster run time. Finally, the most reliable evolutionary polynomial regression model was used in order to make some conjecture about the uncertainty increase with the extension of extrapolation time of the estimation. The overlapping rate between the confidence band of the mean of the known coast position and the prediction band of the estimated position can be a good index of the weakness in producing reliable estimations when the extrapolation time increases too much. The proposed models and tests have been applied to a coastal sector located nearby Torre Colimena in the Apulia region, south Italy.

Model testing for reliability and validity of the Outcome Expectations for Exercise Scale.

PubMed

Resnick, B; Zimmerman, S; Orwig, D; Furstenberg, A L; Magaziner, J

2001-01-01

Development of a reliable and valid measure of outcome expectations for exercise appropriate for older adults will help establish the relationship between outcome expectations and exercise. Once established, this measure can be used to facilitate the development of interventions to strengthen outcome expectations and improve adherence to regular exercise in older adults. Building on initial psychometrics of the Outcome Expectation for Exercise (OEE) Scale, the purpose of the current study was to use structural equation modeling to provide additional support for the reliability and validity of this measure. The OEE scale is a 9-item measure specifically focusing on the perceived consequences of exercise for older adults. The OEE scale was given to 191 residents in a continuing care retirement community. The mean age of the participants was 85 +/- 6.1 and the majority were female (76%), White (99%), and unmarried (76%). Using structural equation modeling, reliability was based on R2 values, and validity was based on a confirmatory factor analysis and path coefficients. There was continued evidence for reliability of the OEE based on R2 values ranging from .42 to .77, and validity with path coefficients ranging from .69 to .87, and evidence of model fit (X2 of 69, df = 27, p < .05, NFI = .98, RMSEA = .07). The evidence of reliability and validity of this measure has important implications for clinical work and research. The OEE scale can be used to identify older adults who have low outcome expectations for exercise, and interventions can then be implemented to strengthen these expectations and thereby improve exercise behavior.

Efficient finite element modelling for the investigation of the dynamic behaviour of a structure with bolted joints

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Omar, R.; Rani, M. N. Abdul; Yunus, M. A.; Mirza, W. I. I. Wan Iskandar; Zin, M. S. Mohd

2018-04-01

A simple structure with bolted joints consists of the structural components, bolts and nuts. There are several methods to model the structures with bolted joints, however there is no reliable, efficient and economic modelling methods that can accurately predict its dynamics behaviour. Explained in this paper is an investigation that was conducted to obtain an appropriate modelling method for bolted joints. This was carried out by evaluating four different finite element (FE) models of the assembled plates and bolts namely the solid plates-bolts model, plates without bolt model, hybrid plates-bolts model and simplified plates-bolts model. FE modal analysis was conducted for all four initial FE models of the bolted joints. Results of the FE modal analysis were compared with the experimental modal analysis (EMA) results. EMA was performed to extract the natural frequencies and mode shapes of the test physical structure with bolted joints. Evaluation was made by comparing the number of nodes, number of elements, elapsed computer processing unit (CPU) time, and the total percentage of errors of each initial FE model when compared with EMA result. The evaluation showed that the simplified plates-bolts model could most accurately predict the dynamic behaviour of the structure with bolted joints. This study proved that the reliable, efficient and economic modelling of bolted joints, mainly the representation of the bolting, has played a crucial element in ensuring the accuracy of the dynamic behaviour prediction.

On Space Exploration and Human Error: A Paper on Reliability and Safety

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bell, David G.; Maluf, David A.; Gawdiak, Yuri

2005-01-01

NASA space exploration should largely address a problem class in reliability and risk management stemming primarily from human error, system risk and multi-objective trade-off analysis, by conducting research into system complexity, risk characterization and modeling, and system reasoning. In general, in every mission we can distinguish risk in three possible ways: a) known-known, b) known-unknown, and c) unknown-unknown. It is probably almost certain that space exploration will partially experience similar known or unknown risks embedded in the Apollo missions, Shuttle or Station unless something alters how NASA will perceive and manage safety and reliability

Enhancing Flood Prediction Reliability Using Bayesian Model Averaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Z.; Merwade, V.

2017-12-01

Uncertainty analysis is an indispensable part of modeling the hydrology and hydrodynamics of non-idealized environmental systems. Compared to reliance on prediction from one model simulation, using on ensemble of predictions that consider uncertainty from different sources is more reliable. In this study, Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is applied to Black River watershed in Arkansas and Missouri by combining multi-model simulations to get reliable deterministic water stage and probabilistic inundation extent predictions. The simulation ensemble is generated from 81 LISFLOOD-FP subgrid model configurations that include uncertainty from channel shape, channel width, channel roughness and discharge. Model simulation outputs are trained with observed water stage data during one flood event, and BMA prediction ability is validated for another flood event. Results from this study indicate that BMA does not always outperform all members in the ensemble, but it provides relatively robust deterministic flood stage predictions across the basin. Station based BMA (BMA_S) water stage prediction has better performance than global based BMA (BMA_G) prediction which is superior to the ensemble mean prediction. Additionally, high-frequency flood inundation extent (probability greater than 60%) in BMA_G probabilistic map is more accurate than the probabilistic flood inundation extent based on equal weights.

77 FR 4248 - Cyazofamid; Pesticide Tolerances for Emergency Exemptions

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-01-27

.../water/index.htm . Based on the Pesticide Root Zone Model/Exposure Analysis Modeling System (PRZM/EXAMS... Classification System (NAICS) codes have been provided to assist you and others in determining whether this... reliable information.'' This includes exposure through drinking water and in residential settings, but does...

77 FR 26954 - 1-Naphthaleneacetic acid; Pesticide Tolerances

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-05-08

... for which there is reliable information.'' This includes exposure through drinking water and in... exposure from drinking water. The Agency used screening level water exposure models in the dietary exposure analysis and risk assessment for NAA in drinking water. These simulation models take into account data on...

An Online Risk Monitor System (ORMS) to Increase Safety and Security Levels in Industry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zubair, M.; Rahman, Khalil Ur; Hassan, Mehmood Ul

2013-12-01

The main idea of this research is to develop an Online Risk Monitor System (ORMS) based on Living Probabilistic Safety Assessment (LPSA). The article highlights the essential features and functions of ORMS. The basic models and modules such as, Reliability Data Update Model (RDUM), running time update, redundant system unavailability update, Engineered Safety Features (ESF) unavailability update and general system update have been described in this study. ORMS not only provides quantitative analysis but also highlights qualitative aspects of risk measures. ORMS is capable of automatically updating the online risk models and reliability parameters of equipment. ORMS can support in the decision making process of operators and managers in Nuclear Power Plants.

Towards An Engineering Discipline of Computational Security

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mili, Ali; Sheldon, Frederick T; Jilani, Lamia Labed

2007-01-01

George Boole ushered the era of modern logic by arguing that logical reasoning does not fall in the realm of philosophy, as it was considered up to his time, but in the realm of mathematics. As such, logical propositions and logical arguments are modeled using algebraic structures. Likewise, we submit that security attributes must be modeled as formal mathematical propositions that are subject to mathematical analysis. In this paper, we approach this problem by attempting to model security attributes in a refinement-like framework that has traditionally been used to represent reliability and safety claims. Keywords: Computable security attributes, survivability, integrity,more » dependability, reliability, safety, security, verification, testing, fault tolerance.« less

Reliability of MEG source imaging of anterior temporal spikes: analysis of an intracranially characterized spike focus.

PubMed

Wennberg, Richard; Cheyne, Douglas

2014-05-01

To assess the reliability of MEG source imaging (MSI) of anterior temporal spikes through detailed analysis of the localization and orientation of source solutions obtained for a large number of spikes that were separately confirmed by intracranial EEG to be focally generated within a single, well-characterized spike focus. MSI was performed on 64 identical right anterior temporal spikes from an anterolateral temporal neocortical spike focus. The effects of different volume conductors (sphere and realistic head model), removal of noise with low frequency filters (LFFs) and averaging multiple spikes were assessed in terms of the reliability of the source solutions. MSI of single spikes resulted in scattered dipole source solutions that showed reasonable reliability for localization at the lobar level, but only for solutions with a goodness-of-fit exceeding 80% using a LFF of 3 Hz. Reliability at a finer level of intralobar localization was limited. Spike averaging significantly improved the reliability of source solutions and averaging 8 or more spikes reduced dependency on goodness-of-fit and data filtering. MSI performed on topographically identical individual spikes from an intracranially defined classical anterior temporal lobe spike focus was limited by low reliability (i.e., scattered source solutions) in terms of fine, sublobar localization within the ipsilateral temporal lobe. Spike averaging significantly improved reliability. MSI performed on individual anterior temporal spikes is limited by low reliability. Reduction of background noise through spike averaging significantly improves the reliability of MSI solutions. Copyright © 2013 International Federation of Clinical Neurophysiology. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Answering the call: a tool that measures functional breast cancer literacy.

PubMed

Williams, Karen Patricia; Templin, Thomas N; Hines, Resche D

2013-01-01

There is a need for health care providers and health care educators to ensure that the messages they communicate are understood. The purpose of this research was to test the reliability and validity, in a culturally diverse sample of women, of a revised Breast Cancer Literacy Assessment Tool (Breast-CLAT) designed to measure functional understanding of breast cancer in English, Spanish, and Arabic. Community health workers verbally administered the 35-item Breast-CLAT to 543 Black, Latina, and Arab American women. A confirmatory factor analysis using a 2-parameter item response theory model was used to test the proposed 3-factor Breast-CLAT (awareness, screening and knowledge, and prevention and control). The confirmatory factor analysis using a 2-parameter item response theory model had a good fit (TLI = .91, RMSEA = .04) to the proposed 3-factor structure. The total scale reliability ranged from .80 for Black participants to .73 for total culturally diverse sample. The three subscales were differentially predictive of family history of cancer. The revised Breast-CLAT scales demonstrated internal consistency reliability and validity in this multiethnic, community-based sample.

PAWS/STEM - PADE APPROXIMATION WITH SCALING AND SCALED TAYLOR EXPONENTIAL MATRIX (VAX VMS VERSION)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Butler, R. W.

1994-01-01

Traditional fault-tree techniques for analyzing the reliability of large, complex systems fail to model the dynamic reconfiguration capabilities of modern computer systems. Markov models, on the other hand, can describe fault-recovery (via system reconfiguration) as well as fault-occurrence. The Pade Approximation with Scaling (PAWS) and Scaled Taylor Exponential Matrix (STEM) programs provide a flexible, user-friendly, language-based interface for the creation and evaluation of Markov models describing the behavior of fault-tolerant reconfigurable computer systems. PAWS and STEM produce exact solutions for the probability of system failure and provide a conservative estimate of the number of significant digits in the solution. The calculation of the probability of entering a death state of a Markov model (representing system failure) requires the solution of a set of coupled differential equations. Because of the large disparity between the rates of fault arrivals and system recoveries, Markov models of fault-tolerant architectures inevitably lead to numerically stiff differential equations. Both PAWS and STEM have the capability to solve numerically stiff models. These complementary programs use separate methods to determine the matrix exponential in the solution of the model's system of differential equations. In general, PAWS is better suited to evaluate small and dense models. STEM operates at lower precision, but works faster than PAWS for larger models. The mathematical approach chosen to solve a reliability problem may vary with the size and nature of the problem. Although different solution techniques are utilized on different programs, it is possible to have a common input language. The Systems Validation Methods group at NASA Langley Research Center has created a set of programs that form the basis for a reliability analysis workstation. The set of programs are: SURE reliability analysis program (COSMIC program LAR-13789, LAR-14921); the ASSIST specification interface program (LAR-14193, LAR-14923), PAWS/STEM reliability analysis programs (LAR-14165, LAR-14920); and the FTC fault tree tool (LAR-14586, LAR-14922). FTC is used to calculate the top-event probability for a fault tree. PAWS/STEM and SURE are programs which interpret the same SURE language, but utilize different solution methods. ASSIST is a preprocessor that generates SURE language from a more abstract definition. SURE, ASSIST, and PAWS/STEM are also offered as a bundle. Please see the abstract for COS-10039/COS-10041, SARA - SURE/ASSIST Reliability Analysis Workstation, for pricing details. PAWS/STEM was originally developed for DEC VAX series computers running VMS and was later ported for use on Sun computers running SunOS. The package is written in PASCAL, ANSI compliant C-language, and FORTRAN 77. The standard distribution medium for the VMS version of PAWS/STEM (LAR-14165) is a 9-track 1600 BPI magnetic tape in VMSINSTAL format. It is also available on a TK50 tape cartridge in VMSINSTAL format. Executables are included. The standard distribution medium for the Sun version of PAWS/STEM (LAR-14920) is a .25 inch streaming magnetic tape cartridge in UNIX tar format. Both Sun3 and Sun4 executables are included. PAWS/STEM was developed in 1989 and last updated in 1991. DEC, VAX, VMS, and TK50 are trademarks of Digital Equipment Corporation. SunOS, Sun3, and Sun4 are trademarks of Sun Microsystems, Inc. UNIX is a registered trademark of AT&T Bell Laboratories.

PAWS/STEM - PADE APPROXIMATION WITH SCALING AND SCALED TAYLOR EXPONENTIAL MATRIX (SUN VERSION)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Butler, R. W.

1994-01-01

Traditional fault-tree techniques for analyzing the reliability of large, complex systems fail to model the dynamic reconfiguration capabilities of modern computer systems. Markov models, on the other hand, can describe fault-recovery (via system reconfiguration) as well as fault-occurrence. The Pade Approximation with Scaling (PAWS) and Scaled Taylor Exponential Matrix (STEM) programs provide a flexible, user-friendly, language-based interface for the creation and evaluation of Markov models describing the behavior of fault-tolerant reconfigurable computer systems. PAWS and STEM produce exact solutions for the probability of system failure and provide a conservative estimate of the number of significant digits in the solution. The calculation of the probability of entering a death state of a Markov model (representing system failure) requires the solution of a set of coupled differential equations. Because of the large disparity between the rates of fault arrivals and system recoveries, Markov models of fault-tolerant architectures inevitably lead to numerically stiff differential equations. Both PAWS and STEM have the capability to solve numerically stiff models. These complementary programs use separate methods to determine the matrix exponential in the solution of the model's system of differential equations. In general, PAWS is better suited to evaluate small and dense models. STEM operates at lower precision, but works faster than PAWS for larger models. The mathematical approach chosen to solve a reliability problem may vary with the size and nature of the problem. Although different solution techniques are utilized on different programs, it is possible to have a common input language. The Systems Validation Methods group at NASA Langley Research Center has created a set of programs that form the basis for a reliability analysis workstation. The set of programs are: SURE reliability analysis program (COSMIC program LAR-13789, LAR-14921); the ASSIST specification interface program (LAR-14193, LAR-14923), PAWS/STEM reliability analysis programs (LAR-14165, LAR-14920); and the FTC fault tree tool (LAR-14586, LAR-14922). FTC is used to calculate the top-event probability for a fault tree. PAWS/STEM and SURE are programs which interpret the same SURE language, but utilize different solution methods. ASSIST is a preprocessor that generates SURE language from a more abstract definition. SURE, ASSIST, and PAWS/STEM are also offered as a bundle. Please see the abstract for COS-10039/COS-10041, SARA - SURE/ASSIST Reliability Analysis Workstation, for pricing details. PAWS/STEM was originally developed for DEC VAX series computers running VMS and was later ported for use on Sun computers running SunOS. The package is written in PASCAL, ANSI compliant C-language, and FORTRAN 77. The standard distribution medium for the VMS version of PAWS/STEM (LAR-14165) is a 9-track 1600 BPI magnetic tape in VMSINSTAL format. It is also available on a TK50 tape cartridge in VMSINSTAL format. Executables are included. The standard distribution medium for the Sun version of PAWS/STEM (LAR-14920) is a .25 inch streaming magnetic tape cartridge in UNIX tar format. Both Sun3 and Sun4 executables are included. PAWS/STEM was developed in 1989 and last updated in 1991. DEC, VAX, VMS, and TK50 are trademarks of Digital Equipment Corporation. SunOS, Sun3, and Sun4 are trademarks of Sun Microsystems, Inc. UNIX is a registered trademark of AT&T Bell Laboratories.

Reliability measures in item response theory: manifest versus latent correlation functions.

PubMed

Milanzi, Elasma; Molenberghs, Geert; Alonso, Ariel; Verbeke, Geert; De Boeck, Paul

2015-02-01

For item response theory (IRT) models, which belong to the class of generalized linear or non-linear mixed models, reliability at the scale of observed scores (i.e., manifest correlation) is more difficult to calculate than latent correlation based reliability, but usually of greater scientific interest. This is not least because it cannot be calculated explicitly when the logit link is used in conjunction with normal random effects. As such, approximations such as Fisher's information coefficient, Cronbach's α, or the latent correlation are calculated, allegedly because it is easy to do so. Cronbach's α has well-known and serious drawbacks, Fisher's information is not meaningful under certain circumstances, and there is an important but often overlooked difference between latent and manifest correlations. Here, manifest correlation refers to correlation between observed scores, while latent correlation refers to correlation between scores at the latent (e.g., logit or probit) scale. Thus, using one in place of the other can lead to erroneous conclusions. Taylor series based reliability measures, which are based on manifest correlation functions, are derived and a careful comparison of reliability measures based on latent correlations, Fisher's information, and exact reliability is carried out. The latent correlations are virtually always considerably higher than their manifest counterparts, Fisher's information measure shows no coherent behaviour (it is even negative in some cases), while the newly introduced Taylor series based approximations reflect the exact reliability very closely. Comparisons among the various types of correlations, for various IRT models, are made using algebraic expressions, Monte Carlo simulations, and data analysis. Given the light computational burden and the performance of Taylor series based reliability measures, their use is recommended. © 2014 The British Psychological Society.

Integrated Evaluation of Reliability and Power Consumption of Wireless Sensor Networks

PubMed Central

Dâmaso, Antônio; Maciel, Paulo

2017-01-01

Power consumption is a primary interest in Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs), and a large number of strategies have been proposed to evaluate it. However, those approaches usually neither consider reliability issues nor the power consumption of applications executing in the network. A central concern is the lack of consolidated solutions that enable us to evaluate the power consumption of applications and the network stack also considering their reliabilities. To solve this problem, we introduce a fully automatic solution to design power consumption aware WSN applications and communication protocols. The solution presented in this paper comprises a methodology to evaluate the power consumption based on the integration of formal models, a set of power consumption and reliability models, a sensitivity analysis strategy to select WSN configurations and a toolbox named EDEN to fully support the proposed methodology. This solution allows accurately estimating the power consumption of WSN applications and the network stack in an automated way. PMID:29113078

Reliability analysis and fault-tolerant system development for a redundant strapdown inertial measurement unit. [inertial platforms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Motyka, P.

1983-01-01

A methodology is developed and applied for quantitatively analyzing the reliability of a dual, fail-operational redundant strapdown inertial measurement unit (RSDIMU). A Markov evaluation model is defined in terms of the operational states of the RSDIMU to predict system reliability. A 27 state model is defined based upon a candidate redundancy management system which can detect and isolate a spectrum of failure magnitudes. The results of parametric studies are presented which show the effect on reliability of the gyro failure rate, both the gyro and accelerometer failure rates together, false alarms, probability of failure detection, probability of failure isolation, and probability of damage effects and mission time. A technique is developed and evaluated for generating dynamic thresholds for detecting and isolating failures of the dual, separated IMU. Special emphasis is given to the detection of multiple, nonconcurrent failures. Digital simulation time histories are presented which show the thresholds obtained and their effectiveness in detecting and isolating sensor failures.

UV spectroscopy including ISM line absorption: of the exciting star of Abell 35

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ziegler, M.; Rauch, T.; Werner, K.; Kruk, J. W.

Reliable spectral analysis that is based on high-resolution UV observations requires an adequate, simultaneous modeling of the interstellar line absorption and reddening. In the case of the central star of the planetary nebula Abell 35, BD-22 3467, we demonstrate our current standard spectral-analysis method that is based on the Tübingen NLTE Model-Atmosphere Package (TMAP). We present an on- going spectral analysis of FUSE and HST/STIS observations of BD-22 3467.

Development and validation of a tool to assess knowledge and attitudes towards generic medicines among students in Greece: The ATtitude TOwards GENerics (ATTOGEN) questionnaire

PubMed Central

Katsari, Vasiliki; Niakas, Dimitris

2017-01-01

Introduction The use of generic medicines is a cost-effective policy, often dictated by fiscal restraints. To our knowledge, no fully validated tool exploring the students’ knowledge and attitudes towards generic medicines exists. The aim of our study was to develop and validate a questionnaire exploring the knowledge and attitudes of M.Sc. in Health Care Management students and recent alumni’s towards generic drugs in Greece. Materials and methods The development of the questionnaire was a result of literature review and pilot-testing of its preliminary versions to researchers and students. The final version of the questionnaire contains 18 items measuring the respondents’ knowledge and attitude towards generic medicines on a 5-point Likert scale. Given the ordinal nature of the data, ordinal alpha and polychoric correlations were computed. The sample was randomly split into two halves. Exploratory factor analysis, performed in the first sample, was used for the creation of multi-item scales. Confirmatory factor analysis and Generalized Linear Latent and Mixed Model analysis (GLLAMM) with the use of the rating scale model were used in the second sample to assess goodness of fit. An assessment of internal consistency reliability, test-retest reliability, and construct validity was also performed. Results Among 1402 persons contacted, 986 persons completed our questionnaire (response rate = 70.3%). Overall Cronbach’s alpha was 0.871. The conjoint use of exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis resulted in a six-scale model, which seemed to fit the data well. Five of the six scales, namely trust, drug quality, state audit, fiscal impact and drug substitution were found to be valid and reliable, while the knowledge scale suffered only from low inter-scale correlations and a ceiling effect. However, the subsequent confirmatory factor and GLLAMM analyses indicated a good fit of the model to the data. Conclusions The ATTOGEN instrument proved to be a reliable and valid tool, suitable for assessing students’ knowledge and attitudes towards generic medicines. PMID:29186163

Probabilistic design of fibre concrete structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pukl, R.; Novák, D.; Sajdlová, T.; Lehký, D.; Červenka, J.; Červenka, V.

2017-09-01

Advanced computer simulation is recently well-established methodology for evaluation of resistance of concrete engineering structures. The nonlinear finite element analysis enables to realistically predict structural damage, peak load, failure, post-peak response, development of cracks in concrete, yielding of reinforcement, concrete crushing or shear failure. The nonlinear material models can cover various types of concrete and reinforced concrete: ordinary concrete, plain or reinforced, without or with prestressing, fibre concrete, (ultra) high performance concrete, lightweight concrete, etc. Advanced material models taking into account fibre concrete properties such as shape of tensile softening branch, high toughness and ductility are described in the paper. Since the variability of the fibre concrete material properties is rather high, the probabilistic analysis seems to be the most appropriate format for structural design and evaluation of structural performance, reliability and safety. The presented combination of the nonlinear analysis with advanced probabilistic methods allows evaluation of structural safety characterized by failure probability or by reliability index respectively. Authors offer a methodology and computer tools for realistic safety assessment of concrete structures; the utilized approach is based on randomization of the nonlinear finite element analysis of the structural model. Uncertainty of the material properties or their randomness obtained from material tests are accounted in the random distribution. Furthermore, degradation of the reinforced concrete materials such as carbonation of concrete, corrosion of reinforcement, etc. can be accounted in order to analyze life-cycle structural performance and to enable prediction of the structural reliability and safety in time development. The results can serve as a rational basis for design of fibre concrete engineering structures based on advanced nonlinear computer analysis. The presented methodology is illustrated on results from two probabilistic studies with different types of concrete structures related to practical applications and made from various materials (with the parameters obtained from real material tests).

A Psychometric Analysis of the Italian Version of the eHealth Literacy Scale Using Item Response and Classical Test Theory Methods

PubMed Central

Dima, Alexandra Lelia; Schulz, Peter Johannes

2017-01-01

Background The eHealth Literacy Scale (eHEALS) is a tool to assess consumers’ comfort and skills in using information technologies for health. Although evidence exists of reliability and construct validity of the scale, less agreement exists on structural validity. Objective The aim of this study was to validate the Italian version of the eHealth Literacy Scale (I-eHEALS) in a community sample with a focus on its structural validity, by applying psychometric techniques that account for item difficulty. Methods Two Web-based surveys were conducted among a total of 296 people living in the Italian-speaking region of Switzerland (Ticino). After examining the latent variables underlying the observed variables of the Italian scale via principal component analysis (PCA), fit indices for two alternative models were calculated using confirmatory factor analysis (CFA). The scale structure was examined via parametric and nonparametric item response theory (IRT) analyses accounting for differences between items regarding the proportion of answers indicating high ability. Convergent validity was assessed by correlations with theoretically related constructs. Results CFA showed a suboptimal model fit for both models. IRT analyses confirmed all items measure a single dimension as intended. Reliability and construct validity of the final scale were also confirmed. The contrasting results of factor analysis (FA) and IRT analyses highlight the importance of considering differences in item difficulty when examining health literacy scales. Conclusions The findings support the reliability and validity of the translated scale and its use for assessing Italian-speaking consumers’ eHealth literacy. PMID:28400356

Automated Drug Identification for Urban Hospitals

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shirley, Donna L.

1971-01-01

Many urban hospitals are becoming overloaded with drug abuse cases requiring chemical analysis for identification of drugs. In this paper, the requirements for chemical analysis of body fluids for drugs are determined and a system model for automated drug analysis is selected. The system as modeled, would perform chemical preparation of samples, gas-liquid chromatographic separation of drugs in the chemically prepared samples, infrared spectrophotometric analysis of the drugs, and would utilize automatic data processing and control for drug identification. Requirements of cost, maintainability, reliability, flexibility, and operability are considered.

Comparison of different objective functions for parameterization of simple respiration models

Treesearch

M.T. van Wijk; B. van Putten; D.Y. Hollinger; A.D. Richardson

2008-01-01

The eddy covariance measurements of carbon dioxide fluxes collected around the world offer a rich source for detailed data analysis. Simple, aggregated models are attractive tools for gap filling, budget calculation, and upscaling in space and time. Key in the application of these models is their parameterization and a robust estimate of the uncertainty and reliability...

Sustainability of transport structures - some aspects of the nonlinear reliability assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pukl, Radomír; Sajdlová, Tereza; Strauss, Alfred; Lehký, David; Novák, Drahomír

2017-09-01

Efficient techniques for both nonlinear numerical analysis of concrete structures and advanced stochastic simulation methods have been combined in order to offer an advanced tool for assessment of realistic behaviour, failure and safety assessment of transport structures. The utilized approach is based on randomization of the non-linear finite element analysis of the structural models. Degradation aspects such as carbonation of concrete can be accounted in order predict durability of the investigated structure and its sustainability. Results can serve as a rational basis for the performance and sustainability assessment based on advanced nonlinear computer analysis of the structures of transport infrastructure such as bridges or tunnels. In the stochastic simulation the input material parameters obtained from material tests including their randomness and uncertainty are represented as random variables or fields. Appropriate identification of material parameters is crucial for the virtual failure modelling of structures and structural elements. Inverse analysis using artificial neural networks and virtual stochastic simulations approach is applied to determine the fracture mechanical parameters of the structural material and its numerical model. Structural response, reliability and sustainability have been investigated on different types of transport structures made from various materials using the above mentioned methodology and tools.

Reliability, validity, and investigation of the index of learning styles in a Chinese language version for late adolescents of Taiwanese.

PubMed

Ku, David Tawei; Shen, Chun-Yi

2009-01-01

The Felder-Soloman Index of Learning Styles (ILS) has been a popular instrument for measuring learning styles of college students for the past two decades. Even though several researchers have translated the ILS into Chinese for their own studies, a Chinese version has not been standardized and evaluated, nor has anyone reported on its reliability and validity. Based on data collected from 2,748 students at a large private university in Taiwan, this study investigates the reliability and validity of the Chinese version of the ILS. In addition, through factor analysis and structural equation modeling (SEM) analysis, problematic test items are identified for further modification. Results show that the reliability of each scale of the ILS has a pattern similar to that of previous studies. The study therefore investigates the identified problematic elements and discusses two key points: (1) the language and translation problems and (2) precision and design. In addition, results of the significant interaction effects of analysis of variance (ANOVA) for active/reflective and sensing/intuitive scales indicate the effect of college differences depends on the levels between genders. Moreover, in general, female students are significantly more intuitive and global and less visual than male students. Other detailed analysis of academic disciplines and gender onILS are also reported.

Outdoor Leader Career Development: Exploration of a Career Path

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wagstaff, Mark

2016-01-01

The purpose of this study was to assess the efficacy of the proposed Outdoor Leader Career Development Model (OLCDM) through the development of the Outdoor Leader Career Development Inventory (OLCDI). I assessed the reliability and validity of the OLCDI through exploratory factor analysis, principal component analysis, and varimax rotation, based…

NASTRAN analysis of Tokamak vacuum vessel using interactive graphics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miller, A.; Badrian, M.

1978-01-01

Isoparametric quadrilateral and triangular elements were used to represent the vacuum vessel shell structure. For toroidally symmetric loadings, MPCs were employed across model boundaries and rigid format 24 was invoked. Nonsymmetric loadings required the use of the cyclic symmetry analysis available with rigid format 49. NASTRAN served as an important analysis tool in the Tokamak design effort by providing a reliable means for assessing structural integrity. Interactive graphics were employed in the finite element model generation and in the post-processing of results. It was felt that model generation and checkout with interactive graphics reduced the modelling effort and debugging man-hours significantly.

Assessment of NDE reliability data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yee, B. G. W.; Couchman, J. C.; Chang, F. H.; Packman, D. F.

1975-01-01

Twenty sets of relevant nondestructive test (NDT) reliability data were identified, collected, compiled, and categorized. A criterion for the selection of data for statistical analysis considerations was formulated, and a model to grade the quality and validity of the data sets was developed. Data input formats, which record the pertinent parameters of the defect/specimen and inspection procedures, were formulated for each NDE method. A comprehensive computer program was written and debugged to calculate the probability of flaw detection at several confidence limits by the binomial distribution. This program also selects the desired data sets for pooling and tests the statistical pooling criteria before calculating the composite detection reliability. An example of the calculated reliability of crack detection in bolt holes by an automatic eddy current method is presented.

Predicting the aquatic toxicity mode of action using logistic regression and linear discriminant analysis.

PubMed

Ren, Y Y; Zhou, L C; Yang, L; Liu, P Y; Zhao, B W; Liu, H X

2016-09-01

The paper highlights the use of the logistic regression (LR) method in the construction of acceptable statistically significant, robust and predictive models for the classification of chemicals according to their aquatic toxic modes of action. Essentials accounting for a reliable model were all considered carefully. The model predictors were selected by stepwise forward discriminant analysis (LDA) from a combined pool of experimental data and chemical structure-based descriptors calculated by the CODESSA and DRAGON software packages. Model predictive ability was validated both internally and externally. The applicability domain was checked by the leverage approach to verify prediction reliability. The obtained models are simple and easy to interpret. In general, LR performs much better than LDA and seems to be more attractive for the prediction of the more toxic compounds, i.e. compounds that exhibit excess toxicity versus non-polar narcotic compounds and more reactive compounds versus less reactive compounds. In addition, model fit and regression diagnostics was done through the influence plot which reflects the hat-values, studentized residuals, and Cook's distance statistics of each sample. Overdispersion was also checked for the LR model. The relationships between the descriptors and the aquatic toxic behaviour of compounds are also discussed.

Issues in benchmarking human reliability analysis methods : a literature review.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lois, Erasmia; Forester, John Alan; Tran, Tuan Q.

There is a diversity of human reliability analysis (HRA) methods available for use in assessing human performance within probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). Due to the significant differences in the methods, including the scope, approach, and underlying models, there is a need for an empirical comparison investigating the validity and reliability of the methods. To accomplish this empirical comparison, a benchmarking study is currently underway that compares HRA methods with each other and against operator performance in simulator studies. In order to account for as many effects as possible in the construction of this benchmarking study, a literature review was conducted,more » reviewing past benchmarking studies in the areas of psychology and risk assessment. A number of lessons learned through these studies are presented in order to aid in the design of future HRA benchmarking endeavors.« less

Issues in Benchmarking Human Reliability Analysis Methods: A Literature Review

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ronald L. Boring; Stacey M. L. Hendrickson; John A. Forester

There is a diversity of human reliability analysis (HRA) methods available for use in assessing human performance within probabilistic risk assessments (PRA). Due to the significant differences in the methods, including the scope, approach, and underlying models, there is a need for an empirical comparison investigating the validity and reliability of the methods. To accomplish this empirical comparison, a benchmarking study comparing and evaluating HRA methods in assessing operator performance in simulator experiments is currently underway. In order to account for as many effects as possible in the construction of this benchmarking study, a literature review was conducted, reviewing pastmore » benchmarking studies in the areas of psychology and risk assessment. A number of lessons learned through these studies are presented in order to aid in the design of future HRA benchmarking endeavors.« less

Validity and Reliability of the TGMD-2 in 7-10-Year-Old Flemish Children with Intellectual Disability

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Simons, Johan; Daly, Daniel; Theodorou, Fani; Caron, Cindy; Simons, Joke; Andoniadou, Elena

2008-01-01

The purpose of this study was to assess validity and reliability of the TGMD-2 on Flemish children with intellectual disability. The total sample consisted of 99 children aged 7-10 years of which 67 were boys and 32 were girls. A factor analysis supported a two factor model of the TGMD-2. A low significant age effect was also found for the object…

Analyzing System on A Chip Single Event Upset Responses using Single Event Upset Data, Classical Reliability Models, and Space Environment Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Berg, Melanie; LaBel, Kenneth; Campola, Michael; Xapsos, Michael

2017-01-01

We are investigating the application of classical reliability performance metrics combined with standard single event upset (SEU) analysis data. We expect to relate SEU behavior to system performance requirements. Our proposed methodology will provide better prediction of SEU responses in harsh radiation environments with confidence metrics. single event upset (SEU), single event effect (SEE), field programmable gate array devises (FPGAs)

Surface flaw reliability analysis of ceramic components with the SCARE finite element postprocessor program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gyekenyesi, John P.; Nemeth, Noel N.

1987-01-01

The SCARE (Structural Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation) computer program on statistical fast fracture reliability analysis with quadratic elements for volume distributed imperfections is enhanced to include the use of linear finite elements and the capability of designing against concurrent surface flaw induced ceramic component failure. The SCARE code is presently coupled as a postprocessor to the MSC/NASTRAN general purpose, finite element analysis program. The improved version now includes the Weibull and Batdorf statistical failure theories for both surface and volume flaw based reliability analysis. The program uses the two-parameter Weibull fracture strength cumulative failure probability distribution model with the principle of independent action for poly-axial stress states, and Batdorf's shear-sensitive as well as shear-insensitive statistical theories. The shear-sensitive surface crack configurations include the Griffith crack and Griffith notch geometries, using the total critical coplanar strain energy release rate criterion to predict mixed-mode fracture. Weibull material parameters based on both surface and volume flaw induced fracture can also be calculated from modulus of rupture bar tests, using the least squares method with known specimen geometry and grouped fracture data. The statistical fast fracture theories for surface flaw induced failure, along with selected input and output formats and options, are summarized. An example problem to demonstrate various features of the program is included.

Improving reliability of aggregation, numerical simulation and analysis of complex systems by empirical data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dobronets, Boris S.; Popova, Olga A.

2018-05-01

The paper considers a new approach of regression modeling that uses aggregated data presented in the form of density functions. Approaches to Improving the reliability of aggregation of empirical data are considered: improving accuracy and estimating errors. We discuss the procedures of data aggregation as a preprocessing stage for subsequent to regression modeling. An important feature of study is demonstration of the way how represent the aggregated data. It is proposed to use piecewise polynomial models, including spline aggregate functions. We show that the proposed approach to data aggregation can be interpreted as the frequency distribution. To study its properties density function concept is used. Various types of mathematical models of data aggregation are discussed. For the construction of regression models, it is proposed to use data representation procedures based on piecewise polynomial models. New approaches to modeling functional dependencies based on spline aggregations are proposed.

Measurement-based reliability/performability models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hsueh, Mei-Chen

1987-01-01

Measurement-based models based on real error-data collected on a multiprocessor system are described. Model development from the raw error-data to the estimation of cumulative reward is also described. A workload/reliability model is developed based on low-level error and resource usage data collected on an IBM 3081 system during its normal operation in order to evaluate the resource usage/error/recovery process in a large mainframe system. Thus, both normal and erroneous behavior of the system are modeled. The results provide an understanding of the different types of errors and recovery processes. The measured data show that the holding times in key operational and error states are not simple exponentials and that a semi-Markov process is necessary to model the system behavior. A sensitivity analysis is performed to investigate the significance of using a semi-Markov process, as opposed to a Markov process, to model the measured system.

Statistical modelling of software reliability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miller, Douglas R.

1991-01-01

During the six-month period from 1 April 1991 to 30 September 1991 the following research papers in statistical modeling of software reliability appeared: (1) A Nonparametric Software Reliability Growth Model; (2) On the Use and the Performance of Software Reliability Growth Models; (3) Research and Development Issues in Software Reliability Engineering; (4) Special Issues on Software; and (5) Software Reliability and Safety.

A measure of early physical functioning (EPF) post-stroke.

PubMed

Finch, Lois E; Higgins, Johanne; Wood-Dauphinee, Sharon; Mayo, Nancy E

2008-07-01

To develop a comprehensive measure of Early Physical Functioning (EPF) post-stroke quantified through Rasch analysis and conceptualized using the International Classification of Functioning Disability and Health (ICF). An observational cohort study. A cohort of 262 subjects (mean age 71.6 (standard deviation 12.5) years) hospitalized post-acute stroke. Functional assessments were made within 3 days of stroke with items from valid and reliable indices commonly utilized to evaluate stroke survivors. Information on important variables was also collected. Principal component and Rasch analysis confirmed the factor structure, and dimensionality of the measure. Rasch analysis combined items across ICF components to develop the measure. Items were deleted iteratively, those retained fit the model and were related to the construct; reliability and validity were assessed. A 38-item unidimensional measure of the EPF met all Rasch model requirements. The item difficulty matched the person ability (mean person measure: -0.31; standard error 0.37 logits), reliability of the person-item-hierarchy was excellent at 0.97. Initial validity was adequate. The 38-item EPF measure was developed. It expands the range of assessment post acute stroke; it covers a broad spectrum of difficulty with good initial psychometric properties that, once revalidated, can assist in planning and evaluating early interventions.

Design of ceramic components with the NASA/CARES computer program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nemeth, Noel N.; Manderscheid, Jane M.; Gyekenyesi, John P.

1990-01-01

The ceramics analysis and reliability evaluation of structures (CARES) computer program is described. The primary function of the code is to calculate the fast-fracture reliability or failure probability of macro-scopically isotropic ceramic components. These components may be subjected to complex thermomechanical loadings, such as those found in heat engine applications. CARES uses results from MSC/NASTRAN or ANSYS finite-element analysis programs to evaluate how inherent surface and/or volume type flaws component reliability. CARES utilizes the Batdorf model and the two-parameter Weibull cumulative distribution function to describe the effects of multiaxial stress states on material strength. The principle of independent action (PIA) and the Weibull normal stress averaging models are also included. Weibull material strength parameters, the Batdorf crack density coefficient, and other related statistical quantities are estimated from four-point bend bar or uniform uniaxial tensile specimen fracture strength data. Parameter estimation can be performed for a single or multiple failure modes by using a least-squares analysis or a maximum likelihood method. Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Anderson-Darling goodness-to-fit-tests, 90 percent confidence intervals on the Weibull parameters, and Kanofsky-Srinivasan 90 percent confidence band values are also provided. Examples are provided to illustrate the various features of CARES.

Power transfer systems for future navy helicopters. Final report 25 Jun 70--28 Jun 72

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bossler, R.B. Jr.

1972-11-01

The purpose of this program was to conduct an analysis of helicopter power transfer systems (pts), both conventional and advanced concept type, with the objective of reducing specific weights and improving reliability beyond present values. The analysis satisfied requirements specified for a 200,000 pound cargo transport helicopter (CTH), a 70,000 pound heavy assault helicopter, and a 15,000 pound non-combat search and rescue helicopter. Four selected gearing systems (out of seven studied), optimized for lightest weight and equal reliability for the CTH, using component proportioning via stress and stiffness equations, had no significant difference between their aircraft payloads. All optimized ptsmore » were approximately 70% of statistically predicted weight. Reliability increase is predicted via gearbox derating using Weibull relationships. Among advanced concepts, the Turbine Integrated Geared Rotor was competitive for weight, technology availability and reliability increase but handicapped by a special engine requirement. The warm cycle system was found not competitive. Helicopter parametric weight analysis is shown. Advanced development Plans are presented for the pts for the CTH, including total pts system, selected pts components, and scale model flight testing in a Kaman HH2 helicopter.« less

Cavitating Propeller Performance in Inclined Shaft Conditions with OpenFOAM: PPTC 2015 Test Case

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaggero, Stefano; Villa, Diego

2018-05-01

In this paper, we present our analysis of the non-cavitating and cavitating unsteady performances of the Potsdam Propeller Test Case (PPTC) in oblique flow. For our calculations, we used the Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equation (RANSE) solver from the open-source OpenFOAM libraries. We selected the homogeneous mixture approach to solve for multiphase flow with phase change, using the volume of fluid (VoF) approach to solve the multiphase flow and modeling the mass transfer between vapor and water with the Schnerr-Sauer model. Comparing the model results with the experimental measurements collected during the Second Workshop on Cavitation and Propeller Performance - SMP'15 enabled our assessment of the reliability of the open-source calculations. Comparisons with the numerical data collected during the workshop enabled further analysis of the reliability of different flow solvers from which we produced an overview of recommended guidelines (mesh arrangements and solver setups) for accurate numerical prediction even in off-design conditions. Lastly, we propose a number of calculations using the boundary element method developed at the University of Genoa for assessing the reliability of this dated but still widely adopted approach for design and optimization in the preliminary stages of very demanding test cases.

[Cross-cultural adaptation and validation of the PROMIS Global Health scale in the Portuguese language].

PubMed

Zumpano, Camila Eugênia; Mendonça, Tânia Maria da Silva; Silva, Carlos Henrique Martins da; Correia, Helena; Arnold, Benjamin; Pinto, Rogério de Melo Costa

2017-01-23

This study aimed to perform the cross-cultural adaptation and validation of the Patient-Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System (PROMIS) Global Health scale in the Portuguese language. The ten Global Health items were cross-culturally adapted by the method proposed in the Functional Assessment of Chronic Illness Therapy (FACIT). The instrument's final version in Portuguese was self-administered by 1,010 participants in Brazil. The scale's precision was verified by floor and ceiling effects analysis, reliability of internal consistency, and test-retest reliability. Exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses were used to assess the construct's validity and instrument's dimensionality. Calibration of the items used the Gradual Response Model proposed by Samejima. Four global items required adjustments after the pretest. Analysis of the psychometric properties showed that the Global Health scale has good reliability, with Cronbach's alpha of 0.83 and intra-class correlation of 0.89. Exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses showed good fit in the previously established two-dimensional model. The Global Physical Health and Global Mental Health scale showed good latent trait coverage according to the Gradual Response Model. The PROMIS Global Health items showed equivalence in Portuguese compared to the original version and satisfactory psychometric properties for application in clinical practice and research in the Brazilian population.

Developing a model for hospital inherent safety assessment: Conceptualization and validation.

PubMed

Yari, Saeed; Akbari, Hesam; Gholami Fesharaki, Mohammad; Khosravizadeh, Omid; Ghasemi, Mohammad; Barsam, Yalda; Akbari, Hamed

2018-01-01

Paying attention to the safety of hospitals, as the most crucial institute for providing medical and health services wherein a bundle of facilities, equipment, and human resource exist, is of significant importance. The present research aims at developing a model for assessing hospitals' safety based on principles of inherent safety design. Face validity (30 experts), content validity (20 experts), construct validity (268 examples), convergent validity, and divergent validity have been employed to validate the prepared questionnaire; and the items analysis, the Cronbach's alpha test, ICC test (to measure reliability of the test), composite reliability coefficient have been used to measure primary reliability. The relationship between variables and factors has been confirmed at 0.05 significance level by conducting confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) and structural equations modeling (SEM) technique with the use of Smart-PLS. R-square and load factors values, which were higher than 0.67 and 0.300 respectively, indicated the strong fit. Moderation (0.970), simplification (0.959), substitution (0.943), and minimization (0.5008) have had the most weights in determining the inherent safety of hospital respectively. Moderation, simplification, and substitution, among the other dimensions, have more weight on the inherent safety, while minimization has the less weight, which could be due do its definition as to minimize the risk.

Probabilistic durability assessment of concrete structures in marine environments: Reliability and sensitivity analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Bo; Ning, Chao-lie; Li, Bing

2017-03-01

A probabilistic framework for durability assessment of concrete structures in marine environments was proposed in terms of reliability and sensitivity analysis, which takes into account the uncertainties under the environmental, material, structural and executional conditions. A time-dependent probabilistic model of chloride ingress was established first to consider the variations in various governing parameters, such as the chloride concentration, chloride diffusion coefficient, and age factor. Then the Nataf transformation was adopted to transform the non-normal random variables from the original physical space into the independent standard Normal space. After that the durability limit state function and its gradient vector with respect to the original physical parameters were derived analytically, based on which the first-order reliability method was adopted to analyze the time-dependent reliability and parametric sensitivity of concrete structures in marine environments. The accuracy of the proposed method was verified by comparing with the second-order reliability method and the Monte Carlo simulation. Finally, the influences of environmental conditions, material properties, structural parameters and execution conditions on the time-dependent reliability of concrete structures in marine environments were also investigated. The proposed probabilistic framework can be implemented in the decision-making algorithm for the maintenance and repair of deteriorating concrete structures in marine environments.

A systematic review of the factor structure and reliability of the Spence Children's Anxiety Scale.

PubMed

Orgilés, Mireia; Fernández-Martínez, Iván; Guillén-Riquelme, Alejandro; Espada, José P; Essau, Cecilia A

2016-01-15

The Spence Children's Anxiety Scale (SCAS) is a widely used instrument for assessing symptoms of anxiety disorders among children and adolescents. Previous studies have demonstrated its good reliability for children and adolescents from different backgrounds. However, remarkable variability in the reliability of the SCAS across studies and inconsistent results regarding its factor structure has been found. The present study aims to examine the SCAS factor structure by means of a systematic review with narrative synthesis, the mean reliability of the SCAS by means of a meta-analysis, and the influence of the moderators on the SCAS reliability. Databases employed to collect the studies included Scholar Google, PsycARTICLES, PsycINFO, Web of Science, and Scopus since 1997. Twenty-nine and 32 studies, which examined the factor structure and the internal consistency of the SCAS, respectively, were included. The SCAS was found to have strong internal consistency, influenced by different moderators. The systematic review demonstrated that the original six-factor model was supported by most studies. Factorial invariance studies (across age, gender, country) and test-retest reliability of the SCAS were not examined in this study. It is concluded that the SCAS is a reliable instrument for cross-cultural use, and it is suggested that the original six-factor model is appropriate for cross-cultural application. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Structural reliability methods: Code development status

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Millwater, Harry R.; Thacker, Ben H.; Wu, Y.-T.; Cruse, T. A.

1991-05-01

The Probabilistic Structures Analysis Method (PSAM) program integrates state of the art probabilistic algorithms with structural analysis methods in order to quantify the behavior of Space Shuttle Main Engine structures subject to uncertain loadings, boundary conditions, material parameters, and geometric conditions. An advanced, efficient probabilistic structural analysis software program, NESSUS (Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress) was developed as a deliverable. NESSUS contains a number of integrated software components to perform probabilistic analysis of complex structures. A nonlinear finite element module NESSUS/FEM is used to model the structure and obtain structural sensitivities. Some of the capabilities of NESSUS/FEM are shown. A Fast Probability Integration module NESSUS/FPI estimates the probability given the structural sensitivities. A driver module, PFEM, couples the FEM and FPI. NESSUS, version 5.0, addresses component reliability, resistance, and risk.

Structural reliability methods: Code development status

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Millwater, Harry R.; Thacker, Ben H.; Wu, Y.-T.; Cruse, T. A.

1991-01-01

The Probabilistic Structures Analysis Method (PSAM) program integrates state of the art probabilistic algorithms with structural analysis methods in order to quantify the behavior of Space Shuttle Main Engine structures subject to uncertain loadings, boundary conditions, material parameters, and geometric conditions. An advanced, efficient probabilistic structural analysis software program, NESSUS (Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress) was developed as a deliverable. NESSUS contains a number of integrated software components to perform probabilistic analysis of complex structures. A nonlinear finite element module NESSUS/FEM is used to model the structure and obtain structural sensitivities. Some of the capabilities of NESSUS/FEM are shown. A Fast Probability Integration module NESSUS/FPI estimates the probability given the structural sensitivities. A driver module, PFEM, couples the FEM and FPI. NESSUS, version 5.0, addresses component reliability, resistance, and risk.

Detection of faults and software reliability analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Knight, J. C.

1987-01-01

Specific topics briefly addressed include: the consistent comparison problem in N-version system; analytic models of comparison testing; fault tolerance through data diversity; and the relationship between failures caused by automatically seeded faults.

Impact of Rating Scale Categories on Reliability and Fit Statistics of the Malay Spiritual Well-Being Scale using Rasch Analysis.

PubMed

Daher, Aqil Mohammad; Ahmad, Syed Hassan; Winn, Than; Selamat, Mohd Ikhsan

2015-01-01

Few studies have employed the item response theory in examining reliability. We conducted this study to examine the effect of Rating Scale Categories (RSCs) on the reliability and fit statistics of the Malay Spiritual Well-Being Scale, employing the Rasch model. The Malay Spiritual Well-Being Scale (SWBS) with the original six; three and four newly structured RSCs was distributed randomly among three different samples of 50 participants each. The mean age of respondents in the three samples ranged between 36 and 39 years old. The majority was female in all samples, and Islam was the most prevalent religion among the respondents. The predominating race was Malay, followed by Chinese and Indian. The original six RSCs indicated better targeting of 0.99 and smallest model error of 0.24. The Infit Mnsq (mean square) and Zstd (Z standard) of the six RSCs were "1.1"and "-0.1"respectively. The six RSCs achieved the highest person and item reliabilities of 0.86 and 0.85 respectively. These reliabilities yielded the highest person (2.46) and item (2.38) separation indices compared to other the RSCs. The person and item reliability and, to a lesser extent, the fit statistics, were better with the six RSCs compared to the four and three RSCs.

Measuring Work Environment and Performance in Nursing Homes

PubMed Central

Temkin-Greener, Helena; Zheng, Nan (Tracy); Katz, Paul; Zhao, Hongwei; Mukamel, Dana B.

2008-01-01

Background Qualitative studies of the nursing home work environment have long suggested that such attributes as leadership and communication may be related to nursing home performance, including residents' outcomes. However, empirical studies examining these relationships have been scant. Objectives This study is designed to: develop an instrument for measuring nursing home work environment and perceived work effectiveness; test the reliability and validity of the instrument; and identify individual and facility-level factors associated with better facility performance. Research Design and Methods The analysis was based on survey responses provided by managers (N=308) and direct care workers (N=7,418) employed in 162 facilities throughout New York State. Exploratory factor analysis, Chronbach's alphas, analysis of variance, and regression models were used to assess instrument reliability and validity. Multivariate regression models, with fixed facility effects, were used to examine factors associated with work effectiveness. Results The reliability and the validity of the survey instrument for measuring work environment and perceived work effectiveness has been demonstrated. Several individual (e.g. occupation, race) and facility characteristics (e.g. management style, workplace conditions, staffing) that are significant predictors of perceived work effectiveness were identified. Conclusions The organizational performance model used in this study recognizes the multidimensionality of the work environment in nursing homes. Our findings suggest that efforts at improving work effectiveness must also be multifaceted. Empirical findings from such a line of research may provide insights for improving the quality of the work environment and ultimately the quality of residents' care. PMID:19330892

Portuguese version of the PTSD Checklist-Military Version (PCL-M)-I: Confirmatory Factor Analysis and reliability.

PubMed

Carvalho, Teresa; Cunha, Marina; Pinto-Gouveia, José; Duarte, Joana

2015-03-30

The PTSD Checklist-Military Version (PCL-M) is a brief self-report instrument widely used to assess Post-traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) symptomatology in war Veterans, according to DSM-IV. This study sought out to explore the factor structure and reliability of the Portuguese version of the PCL-M. A sample of 660 Portuguese Colonial War Veterans completed the PCL-M. Several Confirmatory Factor Analyses were conducted to test different structures for PCL-M PTSD symptoms. Although the respecified first-order four-factor model based on King et al.'s model showed the best fit to the data, the respecified first and second-order models based on the DSM-IV symptom clusters also presented an acceptable fit. In addition, the PCL-M showed adequate reliability. The Portuguese version of the PCL-M is thus a valid and reliable measure to assess the severity of PTSD symptoms as described in DSM-IV. Its use with Portuguese Colonial War Veterans may ease screening of possible PTSD cases, promote more suitable treatment planning, and enable monitoring of therapeutic outcomes. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

The development of a Chinese-language instrument to measure social smoking motives among male Taiwanese smokers.

PubMed

Huang, Chih-Ling; Cheng, Chung-Ping; Huang, Hui-Wen

2013-10-01

The purpose of this study was to develop a scale to measure the social smoking motives of adult male smokers using a Chinese social context. Three phases were conducted between February 2006 and May 2009. First, the initial instrument development was guided by a literature review, interviews with smokers, and item analysis. Second, the validity and reliability of the refined scale were tested. The factor structures of the Social Smoking Measures (SSM-12) scale were validated. The final scale consists of 12 items. Two factors that account for 49.2% of the variance emerged from the exploratory factor analysis. Cronbach's alpha was .88, and test-retest reliability was .82. The results of the confirmatory factor analysis indicated that the SSM model was a two-correlated factor. Field testing revealed the SSM-12 to be a reliable and valid Chinese-language instrument to measure social smoking motives, which can be used to guide nursing interventions that support culturally and socially appropriate smoking cessation programs.

Method-independent, Computationally Frugal Convergence Testing for Sensitivity Analysis Techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mai, J.; Tolson, B.

2017-12-01

The increasing complexity and runtime of environmental models lead to the current situation that the calibration of all model parameters or the estimation of all of their uncertainty is often computationally infeasible. Hence, techniques to determine the sensitivity of model parameters are used to identify most important parameters. All subsequent model calibrations or uncertainty estimation procedures focus then only on these subsets of parameters and are hence less computational demanding. While the examination of the convergence of calibration and uncertainty methods is state-of-the-art, the convergence of the sensitivity methods is usually not checked. If any, bootstrapping of the sensitivity results is used to determine the reliability of the estimated indexes. Bootstrapping, however, might as well become computationally expensive in case of large model outputs and a high number of bootstraps. We, therefore, present a Model Variable Augmentation (MVA) approach to check the convergence of sensitivity indexes without performing any additional model run. This technique is method- and model-independent. It can be applied either during the sensitivity analysis (SA) or afterwards. The latter case enables the checking of already processed sensitivity indexes. To demonstrate the method's independency of the convergence testing method, we applied it to two widely used, global SA methods: the screening method known as Morris method or Elementary Effects (Morris 1991) and the variance-based Sobol' method (Solbol' 1993). The new convergence testing method is first scrutinized using 12 analytical benchmark functions (Cuntz & Mai et al. 2015) where the true indexes of aforementioned three methods are known. This proof of principle shows that the method reliably determines the uncertainty of the SA results when different budgets are used for the SA. The results show that the new frugal method is able to test the convergence and therefore the reliability of SA results in an efficient way. The appealing feature of this new technique is the necessity of no further model evaluation and therefore enables checking of already processed sensitivity results. This is one step towards reliable and transferable, published sensitivity results.

Special methods for aerodynamic-moment calculations from parachute FSI modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takizawa, Kenji; Tezduyar, Tayfun E.; Boswell, Cody; Tsutsui, Yuki; Montel, Kenneth

2015-06-01

The space-time fluid-structure interaction (STFSI) methods for 3D parachute modeling are now at a level where they can bring reliable, practical analysis to some of the most complex parachute systems, such as spacecraft parachutes. The methods include the Deforming-Spatial-Domain/Stabilized ST method as the core computational technology, and a good number of special FSI methods targeting parachutes. Evaluating the stability characteristics of a parachute based on how the aerodynamic moment varies as a function of the angle of attack is one of the practical analyses that reliable parachute FSI modeling can deliver. We describe the special FSI methods we developed for this specific purpose and present the aerodynamic-moment data obtained from FSI modeling of NASA Orion spacecraft parachutes and Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) subscale parachutes.

Modeling and projection of dengue fever cases in Guangzhou based on variation of weather factors.

PubMed

Li, Chenlu; Wang, Xiaofeng; Wu, Xiaoxu; Liu, Jianing; Ji, Duoying; Du, Juan

2017-12-15

Dengue fever is one of the most serious vector-borne infectious diseases, especially in Guangzhou, China. Dengue viruses and their vectors Aedes albopictus are sensitive to climate change primarily in relation to weather factors. Previous research has mainly focused on identifying the relationship between climate factors and dengue cases, or developing dengue case models with some non-climate factors. However, there has been little research addressing the modeling and projection of dengue cases only from the perspective of climate change. This study considered this topic using long time series data (1998-2014). First, sensitive weather factors were identified through meta-analysis that included literature review screening, lagged analysis, and collinear analysis. Then, key factors that included monthly average temperature at a lag of two months, and monthly average relative humidity and monthly average precipitation at lags of three months were determined. Second, time series Poisson analysis was used with the generalized additive model approach to develop a dengue model based on key weather factors for January 1998 to December 2012. Data from January 2013 to July 2014 were used to validate that the model was reliable and reasonable. Finally, future weather data (January 2020 to December 2070) were input into the model to project the occurrence of dengue cases under different climate scenarios (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5). Longer time series analysis and scientifically selected weather variables were used to develop a dengue model to ensure reliability. The projections suggested that seasonal disease control (especially in summer and fall) and mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions could help reduce the incidence of dengue fever. The results of this study hope to provide a scientifically theoretical basis for the prevention and control of dengue fever in Guangzhou. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Measuring ability to assess claims about treatment effects: a latent trait analysis of items from the ‘Claim Evaluation Tools’ database using Rasch modelling

PubMed Central

Austvoll-Dahlgren, Astrid; Guttersrud, Øystein; Nsangi, Allen; Semakula, Daniel; Oxman, Andrew D

2017-01-01

Background The Claim Evaluation Tools database contains multiple-choice items for measuring people’s ability to apply the key concepts they need to know to be able to assess treatment claims. We assessed items from the database using Rasch analysis to develop an outcome measure to be used in two randomised trials in Uganda. Rasch analysis is a form of psychometric testing relying on Item Response Theory. It is a dynamic way of developing outcome measures that are valid and reliable. Objectives To assess the validity, reliability and responsiveness of 88 items addressing 22 key concepts using Rasch analysis. Participants We administrated four sets of multiple-choice items in English to 1114 people in Uganda and Norway, of which 685 were children and 429 were adults (including 171 health professionals). We scored all items dichotomously. We explored summary and individual fit statistics using the RUMM2030 analysis package. We used SPSS to perform distractor analysis. Results Most items conformed well to the Rasch model, but some items needed revision. Overall, the four item sets had satisfactory reliability. We did not identify significant response dependence between any pairs of items and, overall, the magnitude of multidimensionality in the data was acceptable. The items had a high level of difficulty. Conclusion Most of the items conformed well to the Rasch model’s expectations. Following revision of some items, we concluded that most of the items were suitable for use in an outcome measure for evaluating the ability of children or adults to assess treatment claims. PMID:28550019

NDE reliability and probability of detection (POD) evolution and paradigm shift

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Singh, Surendra

2014-02-18

The subject of NDE Reliability and POD has gone through multiple phases since its humble beginning in the late 1960s. This was followed by several programs including the important one nicknamed “Have Cracks – Will Travel” or in short “Have Cracks” by Lockheed Georgia Company for US Air Force during 1974–1978. This and other studies ultimately led to a series of developments in the field of reliability and POD starting from the introduction of fracture mechanics and Damaged Tolerant Design (DTD) to statistical framework by Bernes and Hovey in 1981 for POD estimation to MIL-STD HDBK 1823 (1999) and 1823Amore » (2009). During the last decade, various groups and researchers have further studied the reliability and POD using Model Assisted POD (MAPOD), Simulation Assisted POD (SAPOD), and applying Bayesian Statistics. All and each of these developments had one objective, i.e., improving accuracy of life prediction in components that to a large extent depends on the reliability and capability of NDE methods. Therefore, it is essential to have a reliable detection and sizing of large flaws in components. Currently, POD is used for studying reliability and capability of NDE methods, though POD data offers no absolute truth regarding NDE reliability, i.e., system capability, effects of flaw morphology, and quantifying the human factors. Furthermore, reliability and POD have been reported alike in meaning but POD is not NDE reliability. POD is a subset of the reliability that consists of six phases: 1) samples selection using DOE, 2) NDE equipment setup and calibration, 3) System Measurement Evaluation (SME) including Gage Repeatability and Reproducibility (Gage R and R) and Analysis Of Variance (ANOVA), 4) NDE system capability and electronic and physical saturation, 5) acquiring and fitting data to a model, and data analysis, and 6) POD estimation. This paper provides an overview of all major POD milestones for the last several decades and discuss rationale for using Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME), MAPOD, SAPOD, and Bayesian statistics for studying controllable and non-controllable variables including human factors for estimating POD. Another objective is to list gaps between “hoped for” versus validated or fielded failed hardware.« less

STAMPS: development and verification of swallowing kinematic analysis software.

PubMed

Lee, Woo Hyung; Chun, Changmook; Seo, Han Gil; Lee, Seung Hak; Oh, Byung-Mo

2017-10-17

Swallowing impairment is a common complication in various geriatric and neurodegenerative diseases. Swallowing kinematic analysis is essential to quantitatively evaluate the swallowing motion of the oropharyngeal structures. This study aims to develop a novel swallowing kinematic analysis software, called spatio-temporal analyzer for motion and physiologic study (STAMPS), and verify its validity and reliability. STAMPS was developed in MATLAB, which is one of the most popular platforms for biomedical analysis. This software was constructed to acquire, process, and analyze the data of swallowing motion. The target of swallowing structures includes bony structures (hyoid bone, mandible, maxilla, and cervical vertebral bodies), cartilages (epiglottis and arytenoid), soft tissues (larynx and upper esophageal sphincter), and food bolus. Numerous functions are available for the spatiotemporal parameters of the swallowing structures. Testing for validity and reliability was performed in 10 dysphagia patients with diverse etiologies and using the instrumental swallowing model which was designed to mimic the motion of the hyoid bone and the epiglottis. The intra- and inter-rater reliability tests showed excellent agreement for displacement and moderate to excellent agreement for velocity. The Pearson correlation coefficients between the measured and instrumental reference values were nearly 1.00 (P < 0.001) for displacement and velocity. The Bland-Altman plots showed good agreement between the measurements and the reference values. STAMPS provides precise and reliable kinematic measurements and multiple practical functionalities for spatiotemporal analysis. The software is expected to be useful for researchers who are interested in the swallowing motion analysis.

CARES - CERAMICS ANALYSIS AND RELIABILITY EVALUATION OF STRUCTURES

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nemeth, N. N.

1994-01-01

The beneficial properties of structural ceramics include their high-temperature strength, light weight, hardness, and corrosion and oxidation resistance. For advanced heat engines, ceramics have demonstrated functional abilities at temperatures well beyond the operational limits of metals. This is offset by the fact that ceramic materials tend to be brittle. When a load is applied, their lack of significant plastic deformation causes the material to crack at microscopic flaws, destroying the component. CARES calculates the fast-fracture reliability or failure probability of macroscopically isotropic ceramic components. These components may be subjected to complex thermomechanical loadings. The program uses results from a commercial structural analysis program (MSC/NASTRAN or ANSYS) to evaluate component reliability due to inherent surface and/or volume type flaws. A multiple material capability allows the finite element model reliability to be a function of many different ceramic material statistical characterizations. The reliability analysis uses element stress, temperature, area, and volume output, which are obtained from two dimensional shell and three dimensional solid isoparametric or axisymmetric finite elements. CARES utilizes the Batdorf model and the two-parameter Weibull cumulative distribution function to describe the effects of multi-axial stress states on material strength. The shear-sensitive Batdorf model requires a user-selected flaw geometry and a mixed-mode fracture criterion. Flaws intersecting the surface and imperfections embedded in the volume can be modeled. The total strain energy release rate theory is used as a mixed mode fracture criterion for co-planar crack extension. Out-of-plane crack extension criteria are approximated by a simple equation with a semi-empirical constant that can model the maximum tangential stress theory, the minimum strain energy density criterion, the maximum strain energy release rate theory, or experimental results. For comparison, Griffith's maximum tensile stress theory, the principle of independent action, and the Weibull normal stress averaging models are also included. Weibull material strength parameters, the Batdorf crack density coefficient, and other related statistical quantities are estimated from four-point bend bar or uniform uniaxial tensile specimen fracture strength data. Parameter estimation can be performed for single or multiple failure modes by using the least-squares analysis or the maximum likelihood method. A more limited program, CARES/PC (COSMIC number LEW-15248) runs on a personal computer and estimates ceramic material properties from three-point bend bar data. CARES/PC does not perform fast fracture reliability estimation. CARES is written in FORTRAN 77 and has been implemented on DEC VAX series computers under VMS and on IBM 370 series computers under VM/CMS. On a VAX, CARES requires 10Mb of main memory. Five MSC/NASTRAN example problems and two ANSYS example problems are provided. There are two versions of CARES supplied on the distribution tape, CARES1 and CARES2. CARES2 contains sub-elements and CARES1 does not. CARES is available on a 9-track 1600 BPI VAX FILES-11 format magnetic tape (standard media) or in VAX BACKUP format on a TK50 tape cartridge. The program requires a FORTRAN 77 compiler and about 12Mb memory. CARES was developed in 1990. DEC, VAX and VMS are trademarks of Digital Equipment Corporation. IBM 370 is a trademark of International Business Machines. MSC/NASTRAN is a trademark of MacNeal-Schwendler Corporation. ANSYS is a trademark of Swanson Analysis Systems, Inc.

The Effects of industrial workers' food choice attribute on sugar intake pattern and job satisfaction with Structural Equcation Model

PubMed Central

Park, Young Il

2016-01-01

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES This research analyzes the effects of the food choices of industrial workers according to their sugar intake pattern on their job satisfaction through the construction of a model on the relationship between sugar intake pattern and job satisfaction. SUBJECTS/METHODS Surveys were collected from May to July 2015. A statistical analysis of the 775 surveys from Kyungsangnam-do was conducted using SPSS13.0 for Windows and SEM was performed using the AMOS 5.0 statistics package. RESULTS The reliability of the data was confirmed by an exploratory factor analysis through a Cronbach's alpha coefficient, and the measurement model was proven to be appropriate by a confirmatory factor analysis in conjunction with AMOS. The results of factor analysis on food choice, sugar intake pattern and job satisfaction were categorized into five categories. The reliability of these findings was supported by a Cronbach's alpha coefficient of 0.6 and higher for all factors except confection (0.516) and dairy products (0.570). The multicollinearity results did not indicate a problem between the variables since the highest correlation coefficient was 0.494 (P < 0.01). In an attempt to study the sugar intake pattern in accordance with the food choices and job satisfaction of industrial workers, a structural equation model was constructed and analyzed. CONCLUSIONS All tests confirmed that the model satisfied the recommended levels for the goodness of fit index, and thus, the overall research model was proven to be appropriate. PMID:27478555

Correlation and agreement of a digital and conventional method to measure arch parameters.

PubMed

Nawi, Nes; Mohamed, Alizae Marny; Marizan Nor, Murshida; Ashar, Nor Atika

2018-01-01

The aim of the present study was to determine the overall reliability and validity of arch parameters measured digitally compared to conventional measurement. A sample of 111 plaster study models of Down syndrome (DS) patients were digitized using a blue light three-dimensional (3D) scanner. Digital and manual measurements of defined parameters were performed using Geomagic analysis software (Geomagic Studio 2014 software, 3D Systems, Rock Hill, SC, USA) on digital models and with a digital calliper (Tuten, Germany) on plaster study models. Both measurements were repeated twice to validate the intraexaminer reliability based on intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs) using the independent t test and Pearson's correlation, respectively. The Bland-Altman method of analysis was used to evaluate the agreement of the measurement between the digital and plaster models. No statistically significant differences (p > 0.05) were found between the manual and digital methods when measuring the arch width, arch length, and space analysis. In addition, all parameters showed a significant correlation coefficient (r ≥ 0.972; p < 0.01) between all digital and manual measurements. Furthermore, a positive agreement between digital and manual measurements of the arch width (90-96%), arch length and space analysis (95-99%) were also distinguished using the Bland-Altman method. These results demonstrate that 3D blue light scanning and measurement software are able to precisely produce 3D digital model and measure arch width, arch length, and space analysis. The 3D digital model is valid to be used in various clinical applications.

Efficient stochastic approaches for sensitivity studies of an Eulerian large-scale air pollution model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dimov, I.; Georgieva, R.; Todorov, V.; Ostromsky, Tz.

2017-10-01

Reliability of large-scale mathematical models is an important issue when such models are used to support decision makers. Sensitivity analysis of model outputs to variation or natural uncertainties of model inputs is crucial for improving the reliability of mathematical models. A comprehensive experimental study of Monte Carlo algorithms based on Sobol sequences for multidimensional numerical integration has been done. A comparison with Latin hypercube sampling and a particular quasi-Monte Carlo lattice rule based on generalized Fibonacci numbers has been presented. The algorithms have been successfully applied to compute global Sobol sensitivity measures corresponding to the influence of several input parameters (six chemical reactions rates and four different groups of pollutants) on the concentrations of important air pollutants. The concentration values have been generated by the Unified Danish Eulerian Model. The sensitivity study has been done for the areas of several European cities with different geographical locations. The numerical tests show that the stochastic algorithms under consideration are efficient for multidimensional integration and especially for computing small by value sensitivity indices. It is a crucial element since even small indices may be important to be estimated in order to achieve a more accurate distribution of inputs influence and a more reliable interpretation of the mathematical model results.

Will building new reservoirs always help increase the water supply reliability? - insight from a modeling-based global study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhuang, Y.; Tian, F.; Yigzaw, W.; Hejazi, M. I.; Li, H. Y.; Turner, S. W. D.; Vernon, C. R.

2017-12-01

More and more reservoirs are being build or planned in order to help meet the increasing water demand all over the world. However, is building new reservoirs always helpful to water supply? To address this question, the river routing module of Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) has been extended with a simple yet physical-based reservoir scheme accounting for irrigation, flood control and hydropower operations at each individual reservoir. The new GCAM river routing model has been applied over the global domain with the runoff inputs from the Variable Infiltration Capacity Model. The simulated streamflow is validated at 150 global river basins where the observed streamflow data are available. The model performance has been significantly improved at 77 basins and worsened at 35 basins. To facilitate the analysis of additional reservoir storage impacts at the basin level, a lumped version of GCAM reservoir model has been developed, representing a single lumped reservoir at each river basin which has the regulation capacity of all reservoir combined. A Sequent Peak Analysis is used to estimate how much additional reservoir storage is required to satisfy the current water demand. For basins with water deficit, the water supply reliability can be improved with additional storage. However, there is a threshold storage value at each basin beyond which the reliability stops increasing, suggesting that building new reservoirs will not help better relieve the water stress. Findings in the research can be helpful to the future planning and management of new reservoirs.

Assessment of Lower Limb Muscle Strength and Power Using Hand-Held and Fixed Dynamometry: A Reliability and Validity Study

PubMed Central

Perraton, Luke G.; Bower, Kelly J.; Adair, Brooke; Pua, Yong-Hao; Williams, Gavin P.; McGaw, Rebekah

2015-01-01

Introduction Hand-held dynamometry (HHD) has never previously been used to examine isometric muscle power. Rate of force development (RFD) is often used for muscle power assessment, however no consensus currently exists on the most appropriate method of calculation. The aim of this study was to examine the reliability of different algorithms for RFD calculation and to examine the intra-rater, inter-rater, and inter-device reliability of HHD as well as the concurrent validity of HHD for the assessment of isometric lower limb muscle strength and power. Methods 30 healthy young adults (age: 23±5yrs, male: 15) were assessed on two sessions. Isometric muscle strength and power were measured using peak force and RFD respectively using two HHDs (Lafayette Model-01165 and Hoggan microFET2) and a criterion-reference KinCom dynamometer. Statistical analysis of reliability and validity comprised intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC), Pearson correlations, concordance correlations, standard error of measurement, and minimal detectable change. Results Comparison of RFD methods revealed that a peak 200ms moving window algorithm provided optimal reliability results. Intra-rater, inter-rater, and inter-device reliability analysis of peak force and RFD revealed mostly good to excellent reliability (coefficients ≥ 0.70) for all muscle groups. Concurrent validity analysis showed moderate to excellent relationships between HHD and fixed dynamometry for the hip and knee (ICCs ≥ 0.70) for both peak force and RFD, with mostly poor to good results shown for the ankle muscles (ICCs = 0.31–0.79). Conclusions Hand-held dynamometry has good to excellent reliability and validity for most measures of isometric lower limb strength and power in a healthy population, particularly for proximal muscle groups. To aid implementation we have created freely available software to extract these variables from data stored on the Lafayette device. Future research should examine the reliability and validity of these variables in clinical populations. PMID:26509265

Royal London space analysis: plaster versus digital model assessment.

PubMed

Grewal, Balpreet; Lee, Robert T; Zou, Lifong; Johal, Ama

2017-06-01

With the advent of digital study models, the importance of being able to evaluate space requirements becomes valuable to treatment planning and the justification for any required extraction pattern. This study was undertaken to compare the validity and reliability of the Royal London space analysis (RLSA) undertaken on plaster as compared with digital models. A pilot study (n = 5) was undertaken on plaster and digital models to evaluate the feasibility of digital space planning. This also helped to determine the sample size calculation and as a result, 30 sets of study models with specified inclusion criteria were selected. All five components of the RLSA, namely: crowding; depth of occlusal curve; arch expansion/contraction; incisor antero-posterior advancement and inclination (assessed from the pre-treatment lateral cephalogram) were accounted for in relation to both model types. The plaster models served as the gold standard. Intra-operator measurement error (reliability) was evaluated along with a direct comparison of the measured digital values (validity) with the plaster models. The measurement error or coefficient of repeatability was comparable for plaster and digital space analyses and ranged from 0.66 to 0.95mm. No difference was found between the space analysis performed in either the upper or lower dental arch. Hence, the null hypothesis was accepted. The digital model measurements were consistently larger, albeit by a relatively small amount, than the plaster models (0.35mm upper arch and 0.32mm lower arch). No difference was detected in the RLSA when performed using either plaster or digital models. Thus, digital space analysis provides a valid and reproducible alternative method in the new era of digital records. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Orthodontic Society. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com

Interim reliability-evaluation program: analysis of the Browns Ferry, Unit 1, nuclear plant. Appendix B - system descriptions and fault trees

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mays, S.E.; Poloski, J.P.; Sullivan, W.H.

1982-07-01

This report describes a risk study of the Browns Ferry, Unit 1, nuclear plant. The study is one of four such studies sponsored by the NRC Office of Research, Division of Risk Assessment, as part of its Interim Reliability Evaluation Program (IREP), Phase II. This report is contained in four volumes: a main report and three appendixes. Appendix B provides a description of Browns Ferry, Unit 1, plant systems and the failure evaluation of those systems as they apply to accidents at Browns Ferry. Information is presented concerning front-line system fault analysis; support system fault analysis; human error models andmore » probabilities; and generic control circuit analyses.« less

The extended Lennard-Jones potential energy function: A simpler model for direct-potential-fit analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hajigeorgiou, Photos G.

2016-12-01

An analytical model for the diatomic potential energy function that was recently tested as a universal function (Hajigeorgiou, 2010) has been further modified and tested as a suitable model for direct-potential-fit analysis. Applications are presented for the ground electronic states of three diatomic molecules: oxygen, carbon monoxide, and hydrogen fluoride. The adjustable parameters of the extended Lennard-Jones potential model are determined through nonlinear regression by fits to calculated rovibrational energy term values or experimental spectroscopic line positions. The model is shown to lead to reliable, compact and simple representations for the potential energy functions of these systems and could therefore be classified as a suitable and attractive model for direct-potential-fit analysis.

Using the MWC model to describe heterotropic interactions in hemoglobin

PubMed Central

Rapp, Olga

2017-01-01

Hemoglobin is a classical model allosteric protein. Research on hemoglobin parallels the development of key cooperativity and allostery concepts, such as the ‘all-or-none’ Hill formalism, the stepwise Adair binding formulation and the concerted Monod-Wymann-Changuex (MWC) allosteric model. While it is clear that the MWC model adequately describes the cooperative binding of oxygen to hemoglobin, rationalizing the effects of H+, CO2 or organophosphate ligands on hemoglobin-oxygen saturation using the same model remains controversial. According to the MWC model, allosteric ligands exert their effect on protein function by modulating the quaternary conformational transition of the protein. However, data fitting analysis of hemoglobin oxygen saturation curves in the presence or absence of inhibitory ligands persistently revealed effects on both relative oxygen affinity (c) and conformational changes (L), elementary MWC parameters. The recent realization that data fitting analysis using the traditional MWC model equation may not provide reliable estimates for L and c thus calls for a re-examination of previous data using alternative fitting strategies. In the current manuscript, we present two simple strategies for obtaining reliable estimates for MWC mechanistic parameters of hemoglobin steady-state saturation curves in cases of both evolutionary and physiological variations. Our results suggest that the simple MWC model provides a reasonable description that can also account for heterotropic interactions in hemoglobin. The results, moreover, offer a general roadmap for successful data fitting analysis using the MWC model. PMID:28793329

System and Software Reliability (C103)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wallace, Dolores

2003-01-01

Within the last decade better reliability models (hardware. software, system) than those currently used have been theorized and developed but not implemented in practice. Previous research on software reliability has shown that while some existing software reliability models are practical, they are no accurate enough. New paradigms of development (e.g. OO) have appeared and associated reliability models have been proposed posed but not investigated. Hardware models have been extensively investigated but not integrated into a system framework. System reliability modeling is the weakest of the three. NASA engineers need better methods and tools to demonstrate that the products meet NASA requirements for reliability measurement. For the new models for the software component of the last decade, there is a great need to bring them into a form that they can be used on software intensive systems. The Statistical Modeling and Estimation of Reliability Functions for Systems (SMERFS'3) tool is an existing vehicle that may be used to incorporate these new modeling advances. Adapting some existing software reliability modeling changes to accommodate major changes in software development technology may also show substantial improvement in prediction accuracy. With some additional research, the next step is to identify and investigate system reliability. System reliability models could then be incorporated in a tool such as SMERFS'3. This tool with better models would greatly add value in assess in GSFC projects.

Reliability Analysis of Systems Subject to First-Passage Failure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lutes, Loren D.; Sarkani, Shahram

2009-01-01

An obvious goal of reliability analysis is the avoidance of system failure. However, it is generally recognized that it is often not feasible to design a practical or useful system for which failure is impossible. Thus it is necessary to use techniques that estimate the likelihood of failure based on modeling the uncertainty about such items as the demands on and capacities of various elements in the system. This usually involves the use of probability theory, and a design is considered acceptable if it has a sufficiently small probability of failure. This report contains findings of analyses of systems subject to first-passage failure.

Reliability of the Language ENvironment Analysis system (LENA™) in European French.

PubMed

Canault, Mélanie; Le Normand, Marie-Thérèse; Foudil, Samy; Loundon, Natalie; Thai-Van, Hung

2016-09-01

In this study, we examined the accuracy of the Language ENvironment Analysis (LENA) system in European French. LENA is a digital recording device with software that facilitates the collection and analysis of audio recordings from young children, providing automated measures of the speech overheard and produced by the child. Eighteen native French-speaking children, who were divided into six age groups ranging from 3 to 48 months old, were recorded about 10-16 h per day, three days a week. A total of 324 samples (six 10-min chunks of recordings) were selected and then transcribed according to the CHAT format. Simple and mixed linear models between the LENA and human adult word count (AWC) and child vocalization count (CVC) estimates were performed, to determine to what extent the automatic and the human methods agreed. Both the AWC and CVC estimates were very reliable (r = .64 and .71, respectively) for the 324 samples. When controlling the random factors of participants and recordings, 1 h was sufficient to obtain a reliable sample. It was, however, found that two age groups (7-12 months and 13-18 months) had a significant effect on the AWC data and that the second day of recording had a significant effect on the CVC data. When noise-related factors were added to the model, only a significant effect of signal-to-noise ratio was found on the AWC data. All of these findings and their clinical implications are discussed, providing strong support for the reliability of LENA in French.

Hyperspectral Imaging and SPA-LDA Quantitative Analysis for Detection of Colon Cancer Tissue

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, X.; Zhang, D.; Wang, Ch.; Dai, B.; Zhao, M.; Li, B.

2018-05-01

Hyperspectral imaging (HSI) has been demonstrated to provide a rapid, precise, and noninvasive method for cancer detection. However, because HSI contains many data, quantitative analysis is often necessary to distill information useful for distinguishing cancerous from normal tissue. To demonstrate that HSI with our proposed algorithm can make this distinction, we built a Vis-NIR HSI setup and made many spectral images of colon tissues, and then used a successive projection algorithm (SPA) to analyze the hyperspectral image data of the tissues. This was used to build an identification model based on linear discrimination analysis (LDA) using the relative reflectance values of the effective wavelengths. Other tissues were used as a prediction set to verify the reliability of the identification model. The results suggest that Vis-NIR hyperspectral images, together with the spectroscopic classification method, provide a new approach for reliable and safe diagnosis of colon cancer and could lead to advances in cancer diagnosis generally.

Operations and Modeling Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ebeling, Charles

2005-01-01

The Reliability and Maintainability Analysis Tool (RMAT) provides NASA the capability to estimate reliability and maintainability (R&M) parameters and operational support requirements for proposed space vehicles based upon relationships established from both aircraft and Shuttle R&M data. RMAT has matured both in its underlying database and in its level of sophistication in extrapolating this historical data to satisfy proposed mission requirements, maintenance concepts and policies, and type of vehicle (i.e. ranging from aircraft like to shuttle like). However, a companion analyses tool, the Logistics Cost Model (LCM) has not reached the same level of maturity as RMAT due, in large part, to nonexistent or outdated cost estimating relationships and underlying cost databases, and it's almost exclusive dependence on Shuttle operations and logistics cost input parameters. As a result, the full capability of the RMAT/LCM suite of analysis tools to take a conceptual vehicle and derive its operations and support requirements along with the resulting operating and support costs has not been realized.

Revisiting the reliability and validity of the Entrepreneurial Attitude Orientation Scale in China.

PubMed

Miao, Qing

2012-10-01

The Entrepreneurial Attitude Orientation (EAO) scale is a multidimensional self-report measure of attitudes toward entrepreneurship. Few studies have tested the validity and reliability of the EAO scale in different social and cultural situations. The present study examined the generalizability of the EAO scale in a Chinese context using a two-wave survey. Exploratory factor analysis with the first wave data revealed a four-factor solution consistent with the original scale with 5 items removed. Confirmatory factor analysis of the secondary wave data verified the hypothesized model with a group of parameters and an overall satisfactory fit. The analysis indicated that the Cronbach's a of the four subscales were similar to the values reported by the developers of the scale. However, the results of the test-retest r of the four subscales were lower than the original reports. The findings generally support the generalizability of the four-dimensional model of the EAO. Further research questions are discussed.

Bem Sex Role Inventory Validation in the International Mobility in Aging Study.

PubMed

Ahmed, Tamer; Vafaei, Afshin; Belanger, Emmanuelle; Phillips, Susan P; Zunzunegui, Maria-Victoria

2016-09-01

This study investigated the measurement structure of the Bem Sex Role Inventory (BSRI) with different factor analysis methods. Most previous studies on validity applied exploratory factor analysis (EFA) to examine the BSRI. We aimed to assess the psychometric properties and construct validity of the 12-item short-form BSRI in a sample administered to 1,995 older adults from wave 1 of the International Mobility in Aging Study (IMIAS). We used Cronbach's alpha to assess internal consistency reliability and confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) to assess psychometric properties. EFA revealed a three-factor model, further confirmed by CFA and compared with the original two-factor structure model. Results revealed that a two-factor solution (instrumentality-expressiveness) has satisfactory construct validity and superior fit to data compared to the three-factor solution. The two-factor solution confirms expected gender differences in older adults. The 12-item BSRI provides a brief, psychometrically sound, and reliable instrument in international samples of older adults.

Software reliability models for critical applications

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pham, H.; Pham, M.

This report presents the results of the first phase of the ongoing EG G Idaho, Inc. Software Reliability Research Program. The program is studying the existing software reliability models and proposes a state-of-the-art software reliability model that is relevant to the nuclear reactor control environment. This report consists of three parts: (1) summaries of the literature review of existing software reliability and fault tolerant software reliability models and their related issues, (2) proposed technique for software reliability enhancement, and (3) general discussion and future research. The development of this proposed state-of-the-art software reliability model will be performed in the secondmore » place. 407 refs., 4 figs., 2 tabs.« less

Software reliability models for critical applications

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pham, H.; Pham, M.

This report presents the results of the first phase of the ongoing EG&G Idaho, Inc. Software Reliability Research Program. The program is studying the existing software reliability models and proposes a state-of-the-art software reliability model that is relevant to the nuclear reactor control environment. This report consists of three parts: (1) summaries of the literature review of existing software reliability and fault tolerant software reliability models and their related issues, (2) proposed technique for software reliability enhancement, and (3) general discussion and future research. The development of this proposed state-of-the-art software reliability model will be performed in the second place.more » 407 refs., 4 figs., 2 tabs.« less

Description of Data Acquisition Efforts

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1999-09-01

As part of the overall strategy of refining and improving the existing transportation and air-quality modeling framework, the current project focuses extensively on acquiring disaggregate and reliable data for analysis. In this report, we discuss the...

Methodology for nonwork travel analysis in suburban communities.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1994-01-01

The increase in the number of nonwork trips during the past decade has contributed substantially to congestion and to environmental problems. Data collection methodologies, descriptive information, and reliable models of nonwork travel behavior are n...

Quantitative trait loci markers derived from whole genome sequence data increases the reliability of genomic prediction.

PubMed

Brøndum, R F; Su, G; Janss, L; Sahana, G; Guldbrandtsen, B; Boichard, D; Lund, M S

2015-06-01

This study investigated the effect on the reliability of genomic prediction when a small number of significant variants from single marker analysis based on whole genome sequence data were added to the regular 54k single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) array data. The extra markers were selected with the aim of augmenting the custom low-density Illumina BovineLD SNP chip (San Diego, CA) used in the Nordic countries. The single-marker analysis was done breed-wise on all 16 index traits included in the breeding goals for Nordic Holstein, Danish Jersey, and Nordic Red cattle plus the total merit index itself. Depending on the trait's economic weight, 15, 10, or 5 quantitative trait loci (QTL) were selected per trait per breed and 3 to 5 markers were selected to tag each QTL. After removing duplicate markers (same marker selected for more than one trait or breed) and filtering for high pairwise linkage disequilibrium and assaying performance on the array, a total of 1,623 QTL markers were selected for inclusion on the custom chip. Genomic prediction analyses were performed for Nordic and French Holstein and Nordic Red animals using either a genomic BLUP or a Bayesian variable selection model. When using the genomic BLUP model including the QTL markers in the analysis, reliability was increased by up to 4 percentage points for production traits in Nordic Holstein animals, up to 3 percentage points for Nordic Reds, and up to 5 percentage points for French Holstein. Smaller gains of up to 1 percentage point was observed for mastitis, but only a 0.5 percentage point increase was seen for fertility. When using a Bayesian model accuracies were generally higher with only 54k data compared with the genomic BLUP approach, but increases in reliability were relatively smaller when QTL markers were included. Results from this study indicate that the reliability of genomic prediction can be increased by including markers significant in genome-wide association studies on whole genome sequence data alongside the 54k SNP set. Copyright © 2015 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Importance of Human Reliability Analysis in Human Space Flight: Understanding the Risks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hamlin, Teri L.

2010-01-01

HRA is a method used to describe, qualitatively and quantitatively, the occurrence of human failures in the operation of complex systems that affect availability and reliability. Modeling human actions with their corresponding failure in a PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment) provides a more complete picture of the risk and risk contributions. A high quality HRA can provide valuable information on potential areas for improvement, including training, procedural, equipment design and need for automation.

Psychometric properties of the Swedish PedsQL, Pediatric Quality of Life Inventory 4.0 generic core scales.

PubMed

Petersen, Solveig; Hägglöf, Bruno; Stenlund, Hans; Bergström, Erik

2009-09-01

To study the psychometric performance of the Swedish version of the Pediatric Quality of Life Inventory (PedsQL) 4.0 generic core scales in a general child population in Sweden. PedsQL forms were distributed to 2403 schoolchildren and 888 parents in two different school settings. Reliability and validity was studied for self-reports and proxy reports, full forms and short forms. Confirmatory factor analysis tested the factor structure and multigroup confirmatory factor analysis tested measurement invariance between boys and girls. Test-retest reliability was demonstrated for all scales and internal consistency reliability was shown with alpha value exceeding 0.70 for all scales but one (self-report short form: social functioning). Child-parent agreement was low to moderate. The four-factor structure of the PedsQL and factorial invariance across sex subgroups were confirmed for the self-report forms and for the proxy short form, while model fit indices suggested improvement of several proxy full-form scales. The Swedish PedsQL 4.0 generic core scales are a reliable and valid tool for health-related quality of life (HRQoL) assessment in Swedish child populations. The proxy full form, however, should be used with caution. The study also support continued use of the PedsQL as a four-factor model, capable of revealing meaningful HRQoL differences between boys and girls.

Comparison of CEAS and Williams-type models for spring wheat yields in North Dakota and Minnesota

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barnett, T. L. (Principal Investigator)

1982-01-01

The CEAS and Williams-type yield models are both based on multiple regression analysis of historical time series data at CRD level. The CEAS model develops a separate relation for each CRD; the Williams-type model pools CRD data to regional level (groups of similar CRDs). Basic variables considered in the analyses are USDA yield, monthly mean temperature, monthly precipitation, and variables derived from these. The Williams-type model also used soil texture and topographic information. Technological trend is represented in both by piecewise linear functions of year. Indicators of yield reliability obtained from a ten-year bootstrap test of each model (1970-1979) demonstrate that the models are very similar in performance in all respects. Both models are about equally objective, adequate, timely, simple, and inexpensive. Both consider scientific knowledge on a broad scale but not in detail. Neither provides a good current measure of modeled yield reliability. The CEAS model is considered very slightly preferable for AgRISTARS applications.

Factor structure and reliability of the depression, anxiety and stress scales in a large Portuguese community sample.

PubMed

Vasconcelos-Raposo, José; Fernandes, Helder Miguel; Teixeira, Carla M

2013-01-01

The purpose of the present study was to assess the factor structure and reliability of the Depression, Anxiety and Stress Scales (DASS-21) in a large Portuguese community sample. Participants were 1020 adults (585 women and 435 men), with a mean age of 36.74 (SD = 11.90) years. All scales revealed good reliability, with Cronbach's alpha values between .80 (anxiety) and .84 (depression). The internal consistency of the total score was .92. Confirmatory factor analysis revealed that the best-fitting model (*CFI = .940, *RMSEA = .038) consisted of a latent component of general psychological distress (or negative affectivity) plus orthogonal depression, anxiety and stress factors. The Portuguese version of the DASS-21 showed good psychometric properties (factorial validity and reliability) and thus can be used as a reliable and valid instrument for measuring depression, anxiety and stress symptoms.

An experiment in software reliability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dunham, J. R.; Pierce, J. L.

1986-01-01

The results of a software reliability experiment conducted in a controlled laboratory setting are reported. The experiment was undertaken to gather data on software failures and is one in a series of experiments being pursued by the Fault Tolerant Systems Branch of NASA Langley Research Center to find a means of credibly performing reliability evaluations of flight control software. The experiment tests a small sample of implementations of radar tracking software having ultra-reliability requirements and uses n-version programming for error detection, and repetitive run modeling for failure and fault rate estimation. The experiment results agree with those of Nagel and Skrivan in that the program error rates suggest an approximate log-linear pattern and the individual faults occurred with significantly different error rates. Additional analysis of the experimental data raises new questions concerning the phenomenon of interacting faults. This phenomenon may provide one explanation for software reliability decay.

Method-independent, Computationally Frugal Convergence Testing for Sensitivity Analysis Techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mai, Juliane; Tolson, Bryan

2017-04-01

The increasing complexity and runtime of environmental models lead to the current situation that the calibration of all model parameters or the estimation of all of their uncertainty is often computationally infeasible. Hence, techniques to determine the sensitivity of model parameters are used to identify most important parameters or model processes. All subsequent model calibrations or uncertainty estimation procedures focus then only on these subsets of parameters and are hence less computational demanding. While the examination of the convergence of calibration and uncertainty methods is state-of-the-art, the convergence of the sensitivity methods is usually not checked. If any, bootstrapping of the sensitivity results is used to determine the reliability of the estimated indexes. Bootstrapping, however, might as well become computationally expensive in case of large model outputs and a high number of bootstraps. We, therefore, present a Model Variable Augmentation (MVA) approach to check the convergence of sensitivity indexes without performing any additional model run. This technique is method- and model-independent. It can be applied either during the sensitivity analysis (SA) or afterwards. The latter case enables the checking of already processed sensitivity indexes. To demonstrate the method independency of the convergence testing method, we applied it to three widely used, global SA methods: the screening method known as Morris method or Elementary Effects (Morris 1991, Campolongo et al., 2000), the variance-based Sobol' method (Solbol' 1993, Saltelli et al. 2010) and a derivative-based method known as Parameter Importance index (Goehler et al. 2013). The new convergence testing method is first scrutinized using 12 analytical benchmark functions (Cuntz & Mai et al. 2015) where the true indexes of aforementioned three methods are known. This proof of principle shows that the method reliably determines the uncertainty of the SA results when different budgets are used for the SA. Subsequently, we focus on the model-independency by testing the frugal method using the hydrologic model mHM (www.ufz.de/mhm) with about 50 model parameters. The results show that the new frugal method is able to test the convergence and therefore the reliability of SA results in an efficient way. The appealing feature of this new technique is the necessity of no further model evaluation and therefore enables checking of already processed (and published) sensitivity results. This is one step towards reliable and transferable, published sensitivity results.

The reliability of the Australasian Triage Scale: a meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Ebrahimi, Mohsen; Heydari, Abbas; Mazlom, Reza; Mirhaghi, Amir

2015-01-01

BACKGROUND: Although the Australasian Triage Scale (ATS) has been developed two decades ago, its reliability has not been defined; therefore, we present a meta-analyis of the reliability of the ATS in order to reveal to what extent the ATS is reliable. DATA SOURCES: Electronic databases were searched to March 2014. The included studies were those that reported samples size, reliability coefficients, and adequate description of the ATS reliability assessment. The guidelines for reporting reliability and agreement studies (GRRAS) were used. Two reviewers independently examined abstracts and extracted data. The effect size was obtained by the z-transformation of reliability coefficients. Data were pooled with random-effects models, and meta-regression was done based on the method of moment’s estimator. RESULTS: Six studies were included in this study at last. Pooled coefficient for the ATS was substantial 0.428 (95%CI 0.340–0.509). The rate of mis-triage was less than fifty percent. The agreement upon the adult version is higher than the pediatric version. CONCLUSION: The ATS has shown an acceptable level of overall reliability in the emergency department, but it needs more development to reach an almost perfect agreement. PMID:26056538

Integration of RAMS in LCC analysis for linear transport infrastructures. A case study for railways.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calle-Cordón, Álvaro; Jiménez-Redondo, Noemi; Morales-Gámiz, F. J.; García-Villena, F. A.; Garmabaki, Amir H. S.; Odelius, Johan

2017-09-01

Life-cycle cost (LCC) analysis is an economic technique used to assess the total costs associated with the lifetime of a system in order to support decision making in long term strategic planning. For complex systems, such as railway and road infrastructures, the cost of maintenance plays an important role in the LCC analysis. Costs associated with maintenance interventions can be more reliably estimated by integrating the probabilistic nature of the failures associated to these interventions in the LCC models. Reliability, Maintainability, Availability and Safety (RAMS) parameters describe the maintenance needs of an asset in a quantitative way by using probabilistic information extracted from registered maintenance activities. Therefore, the integration of RAMS in the LCC analysis allows obtaining reliable predictions of system maintenance costs and the dependencies of these costs with specific cost drivers through sensitivity analyses. This paper presents an innovative approach for a combined RAMS & LCC methodology for railway and road transport infrastructures being developed under the on-going H2020 project INFRALERT. Such RAMS & LCC analysis provides relevant probabilistic information to be used for condition and risk-based planning of maintenance activities as well as for decision support in long term strategic investment planning.

Technical Analysis of Teacher Responses to the Self-Evaluation Scale-Teacher (SES-T) Version

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Erford, Bradley T.; Lowe, Samantha; Chang, Catherine Y.

2011-01-01

The Self-Evaluation Scale--Teacher version, used to assess teacher perceived self-esteem of students, was analyzed. A unidimensional model emerged from exploratory factor analysis, with cautious acceptance of data fit. Reliability and external aspects of validity were supported by the Self-Evaluation Scale--Teacher data.

Uncertainty analysis of an irrigation scheduling model for water management in crop production

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Irrigation scheduling tools are critical to allow producers to manage water resources for crop production in an accurate and timely manner. To be useful, these tools need to be accurate, complete, and relatively reliable. The current work presents the uncertainty analysis and its results for the Mis...

A Meta-Analysis of Adult-Rated Child Personality and Academic Performance in Primary Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Poropat, Arthur E.

2014-01-01

Background: Personality is reliably associated with academic performance, but personality measurement in primary education can be problematic. Young children find it difficult to accurately self-rate personality, and dominant models of adult personality may be inappropriate for children. Aims: This meta-analysis was conducted to determine the…

The Mindful Attention Awareness Scale: Further Examination of Dimensionality, Reliability, and Concurrent Validity Estimates.

PubMed

Osman, Augustine; Lamis, Dorian A; Bagge, Courtney L; Freedenthal, Stacey; Barnes, Sean M

2016-01-01

We examined the factor structure and psychometric properties of the Mindful Attention Awareness Scale (MAAS) in a sample of 810 undergraduate students. Using common exploratory factor analysis (EFA), we obtained evidence for a 1-factor solution (41.84% common variance). To confirm unidimensionality of the 15-item MAAS, we conducted a 1-factor confirmatory factor analysis (CFA). Results of the EFA and CFA, respectively, provided support for a unidimensional model. Using differential item functioning analysis methods within item response theory modeling (IRT-based DIF), we found that individuals with high and low levels of nonattachment responded similarly to the MAAS items. Following a detailed item analysis, we proposed a 5-item short version of the instrument and present descriptive statistics and composite score reliability for the short and full versions of the MAAS. Finally, correlation analyses showed that scores on the full and short versions of the MAAS were associated with measures assessing related constructs. The 5-item MAAS is as useful as the original MAAS in enhancing our understanding of the mindfulness construct.

A Proposed Model of Jazz Theory Knowledge Acquisition

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ciorba, Charles R.; Russell, Brian E.

2014-01-01

The purpose of this study was to test a hypothesized model that proposes a causal relationship between motivation and academic achievement on the acquisition of jazz theory knowledge. A reliability analysis of the latent variables ranged from 0.92 to 0.94. Confirmatory factor analyses of the motivation (standardized root mean square residual…

Enterprise Systems Analysis

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-03-14

flows , or continuous state changes, with feedback loops and lags modeled in the flow system. Agent based simulations operate using a discrete event...DeLand, S. M., Rutherford, B . M., Diegert, K. V., & Alvin, K. F. (2002). Error and uncertainty in modeling and simulation . Reliability Engineering...intrinsic complexity of the underlying social systems fundamentally limits the ability to make

The Development and Testing of a Tool for Analysis of Computer-Mediated Conferencing Transcripts.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fahy, Patrick J.; Crawford, Gail; Ally, Mohamed; Cookson, Peter; Keller, Verna; Prosser, Frank

2000-01-01

The Zhu model for analyzing computer mediated communications was further developed by an Athabasca University (Alberta) distance education research team based on ease of use, reliability, validity, theoretical support, and cross-discipline utility. Five classification categories of the new model are vertical questioning, horizontal questioning,…

Validity and Realibility of Chemistry Systemic Multiple Choices Questions (CSMCQs)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Priyambodo, Erfan; Marfuatun

2016-01-01

Nowadays, Rasch model analysis is used widely in social research, moreover in educational research. In this research, Rasch model is used to determine the validation and the reliability of systemic multiple choices question in chemistry teaching and learning. There were 30 multiple choices question with systemic approach for high school student…

Estimation of Environment-Related Properties of Chemicals for Design of Sustainable Processes: Development of Group-Contribution+ (GC+) Property Models and Uncertainty Analysis

EPA Science Inventory

The aim of this work is to develop group-contribution+ (GC+) method (combined group-contribution (GC) method and atom connectivity index (CI) method) based property models to provide reliable estimations of environment-related properties of organic chemicals together with uncert...

Multi-scale Modeling of the Impact Response of a Strain Rate Sensitive High-Manganese Austenitic Steel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Önal, Orkun; Ozmenci, Cemre; Canadinc, Demircan

2014-09-01

A multi-scale modeling approach was applied to predict the impact response of a strain rate sensitive high-manganese austenitic steel. The roles of texture, geometry and strain rate sensitivity were successfully taken into account all at once by coupling crystal plasticity and finite element (FE) analysis. Specifically, crystal plasticity was utilized to obtain the multi-axial flow rule at different strain rates based on the experimental deformation response under uniaxial tensile loading. The equivalent stress - equivalent strain response was then incorporated into the FE model for the sake of a more representative hardening rule under impact loading. The current results demonstrate that reliable predictions can be obtained by proper coupling of crystal plasticity and FE analysis even if the experimental flow rule of the material is acquired under uniaxial loading and at moderate strain rates that are significantly slower than those attained during impact loading. Furthermore, the current findings also demonstrate the need for an experiment-based multi-scale modeling approach for the sake of reliable predictions of the impact response.

Weighted Fuzzy Risk Priority Number Evaluation of Turbine and Compressor Blades Considering Failure Mode Correlations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gan, Luping; Li, Yan-Feng; Zhu, Shun-Peng; Yang, Yuan-Jian; Huang, Hong-Zhong

2014-06-01

Failure mode, effects and criticality analysis (FMECA) and Fault tree analysis (FTA) are powerful tools to evaluate reliability of systems. Although single failure mode issue can be efficiently addressed by traditional FMECA, multiple failure modes and component correlations in complex systems cannot be effectively evaluated. In addition, correlated variables and parameters are often assumed to be precisely known in quantitative analysis. In fact, due to the lack of information, epistemic uncertainty commonly exists in engineering design. To solve these problems, the advantages of FMECA, FTA, fuzzy theory, and Copula theory are integrated into a unified hybrid method called fuzzy probability weighted geometric mean (FPWGM) risk priority number (RPN) method. The epistemic uncertainty of risk variables and parameters are characterized by fuzzy number to obtain fuzzy weighted geometric mean (FWGM) RPN for single failure mode. Multiple failure modes are connected using minimum cut sets (MCS), and Boolean logic is used to combine fuzzy risk priority number (FRPN) of each MCS. Moreover, Copula theory is applied to analyze the correlation of multiple failure modes in order to derive the failure probabilities of each MCS. Compared to the case where dependency among multiple failure modes is not considered, the Copula modeling approach eliminates the error of reliability analysis. Furthermore, for purpose of quantitative analysis, probabilities importance weight from failure probabilities are assigned to FWGM RPN to reassess the risk priority, which generalize the definition of probability weight and FRPN, resulting in a more accurate estimation than that of the traditional models. Finally, a basic fatigue analysis case drawn from turbine and compressor blades in aeroengine is used to demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of the presented method. The result provides some important insights on fatigue reliability analysis and risk priority assessment of structural system under failure correlations.

Multi-criteria evaluation of CMIP5 GCMs for climate change impact analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmadalipour, Ali; Rana, Arun; Moradkhani, Hamid; Sharma, Ashish

2017-04-01

Climate change is expected to have severe impacts on global hydrological cycle along with food-water-energy nexus. Currently, there are many climate models used in predicting important climatic variables. Though there have been advances in the field, there are still many problems to be resolved related to reliability, uncertainty, and computing needs, among many others. In the present work, we have analyzed performance of 20 different global climate models (GCMs) from Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) dataset over the Columbia River Basin (CRB) in the Pacific Northwest USA. We demonstrate a statistical multicriteria approach, using univariate and multivariate techniques, for selecting suitable GCMs to be used for climate change impact analysis in the region. Univariate methods includes mean, standard deviation, coefficient of variation, relative change (variability), Mann-Kendall test, and Kolmogorov-Smirnov test (KS-test); whereas multivariate methods used were principal component analysis (PCA), singular value decomposition (SVD), canonical correlation analysis (CCA), and cluster analysis. The analysis is performed on raw GCM data, i.e., before bias correction, for precipitation and temperature climatic variables for all the 20 models to capture the reliability and nature of the particular model at regional scale. The analysis is based on spatially averaged datasets of GCMs and observation for the period of 1970 to 2000. Ranking is provided to each of the GCMs based on the performance evaluated against gridded observational data on various temporal scales (daily, monthly, and seasonal). Results have provided insight into each of the methods and various statistical properties addressed by them employed in ranking GCMs. Further; evaluation was also performed for raw GCM simulations against different sets of gridded observational dataset in the area.

The Soft Rock Socketed Monopile with Creep Effects - A Reliability Approach based on Wavelet Neural Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kozubal, Janusz; Tomanovic, Zvonko; Zivaljevic, Slobodan

2016-09-01

In the present study the numerical model of the pile embedded in marl described by a time dependent model, based on laboratory tests, is proposed. The solutions complement the state of knowledge of the monopile loaded by horizontal force in its head with respect to its random variability values in time function. The investigated reliability problem is defined by the union of failure events defined by the excessive horizontal maximal displacement of the pile head in each periods of loads. Abaqus has been used for modeling of the presented task with a two layered viscoplastic model for marl. The mechanical parameters for both parts of model: plastic and rheological were calibrated based on the creep laboratory test results. The important aspect of the problem is reliability analysis of a monopile in complex environment under random sequences of loads which help understanding the role of viscosity in nature of rock basis constructions. Due to the lack of analytical solutions the computations were done by the method of response surface in conjunction with wavelet neural network as a method recommended for time sequences process and description of nonlinear phenomenon.