ASSESSING AND COMBINING RELIABILITY OF PROTEIN INTERACTION SOURCES

PubMed Central

LEACH, SONIA; GABOW, AARON; HUNTER, LAWRENCE; GOLDBERG, DEBRA S.

2008-01-01

Integrating diverse sources of interaction information to create protein networks requires strategies sensitive to differences in accuracy and coverage of each source. Previous integration approaches calculate reliabilities of protein interaction information sources based on congruity to a designated ‘gold standard.’ In this paper, we provide a comparison of the two most popular existing approaches and propose a novel alternative for assessing reliabilities which does not require a gold standard. We identify a new method for combining the resultant reliabilities and compare it against an existing method. Further, we propose an extrinsic approach to evaluation of reliability estimates, considering their influence on the downstream tasks of inferring protein function and learning regulatory networks from expression data. Results using this evaluation method show 1) our method for reliability estimation is an attractive alternative to those requiring a gold standard and 2) the new method for combining reliabilities is less sensitive to noise in reliability assignments than the similar existing technique. PMID:17990508

Reducing random measurement error in assessing postural load on the back in epidemiologic surveys.

PubMed

Burdorf, A

1995-02-01

The goal of this study was to design strategies to assess postural load on the back in occupational epidemiology by taking into account the reliability of measurement methods and the variability of exposure among the workers under study. Intermethod reliability studies were evaluated to estimate the systematic bias (accuracy) and random measurement error (precision) of various methods to assess postural load on the back. Intramethod reliability studies were reviewed to estimate random variability of back load over time. Intermethod surveys have shown that questionnaires have a moderate reliability for gross activities such as sitting, whereas duration of trunk flexion and rotation should be assessed by observation methods or inclinometers. Intramethod surveys indicate that exposure variability can markedly affect the reliability of estimates of back load if the estimates are based upon a single measurement over a certain time period. Equations have been presented to evaluate various study designs according to the reliability of the measurement method, the optimum allocation of the number of repeated measurements per subject, and the number of subjects in the study. Prior to a large epidemiologic study, an exposure-oriented survey should be conducted to evaluate the performance of measurement instruments and to estimate sources of variability for back load. The strategy for assessing back load can be optimized by balancing the number of workers under study and the number of repeated measurements per worker.

Drogue pose estimation for unmanned aerial vehicle autonomous aerial refueling system based on infrared vision sensor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Shanjun; Duan, Haibin; Deng, Yimin; Li, Cong; Zhao, Guozhi; Xu, Yan

2017-12-01

Autonomous aerial refueling is a significant technology that can significantly extend the endurance of unmanned aerial vehicles. A reliable method that can accurately estimate the position and attitude of the probe relative to the drogue is the key to such a capability. A drogue pose estimation method based on infrared vision sensor is introduced with the general goal of yielding an accurate and reliable drogue state estimate. First, by employing direct least squares ellipse fitting and convex hull in OpenCV, a feature point matching and interference point elimination method is proposed. In addition, considering the conditions that some infrared LEDs are damaged or occluded, a missing point estimation method based on perspective transformation and affine transformation is designed. Finally, an accurate and robust pose estimation algorithm improved by the runner-root algorithm is proposed. The feasibility of the designed visual measurement system is demonstrated by flight test, and the results indicate that our proposed method enables precise and reliable pose estimation of the probe relative to the drogue, even in some poor conditions.

Improving statistical inference on pathogen densities estimated by quantitative molecular methods: malaria gametocytaemia as a case study.

PubMed

Walker, Martin; Basáñez, María-Gloria; Ouédraogo, André Lin; Hermsen, Cornelus; Bousema, Teun; Churcher, Thomas S

2015-01-16

Quantitative molecular methods (QMMs) such as quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (q-PCR), reverse-transcriptase PCR (qRT-PCR) and quantitative nucleic acid sequence-based amplification (QT-NASBA) are increasingly used to estimate pathogen density in a variety of clinical and epidemiological contexts. These methods are often classified as semi-quantitative, yet estimates of reliability or sensitivity are seldom reported. Here, a statistical framework is developed for assessing the reliability (uncertainty) of pathogen densities estimated using QMMs and the associated diagnostic sensitivity. The method is illustrated with quantification of Plasmodium falciparum gametocytaemia by QT-NASBA. The reliability of pathogen (e.g. gametocyte) densities, and the accompanying diagnostic sensitivity, estimated by two contrasting statistical calibration techniques, are compared; a traditional method and a mixed model Bayesian approach. The latter accounts for statistical dependence of QMM assays run under identical laboratory protocols and permits structural modelling of experimental measurements, allowing precision to vary with pathogen density. Traditional calibration cannot account for inter-assay variability arising from imperfect QMMs and generates estimates of pathogen density that have poor reliability, are variable among assays and inaccurately reflect diagnostic sensitivity. The Bayesian mixed model approach assimilates information from replica QMM assays, improving reliability and inter-assay homogeneity, providing an accurate appraisal of quantitative and diagnostic performance. Bayesian mixed model statistical calibration supersedes traditional techniques in the context of QMM-derived estimates of pathogen density, offering the potential to improve substantially the depth and quality of clinical and epidemiological inference for a wide variety of pathogens.

Test Assembly Implications for Providing Reliable and Valid Subscores

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Minji K.; Sweeney, Kevin; Melican, Gerald J.

2017-01-01

This study investigates the relationships among factor correlations, inter-item correlations, and the reliability estimates of subscores, providing a guideline with respect to psychometric properties of useful subscores. In addition, it compares subscore estimation methods with respect to reliability and distinctness. The subscore estimation…

Expanding Reliability Generalization Methods with KR-21 Estimates: An RG Study of the Coopersmith Self-Esteem Inventory.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lane, Ginny G.; White, Amy E.; Henson, Robin K.

2002-01-01

Conducted a reliability generalizability study on the Coopersmith Self-Esteem Inventory (CSEI; S. Coopersmith, 1967) to examine the variability of reliability estimates across studies and to identify study characteristics that may predict this variability. Results show that reliability for CSEI scores can vary considerably, especially at the…

Pneumothorax size measurements on digital chest radiographs: Intra- and inter- rater reliability.

PubMed

Thelle, Andreas; Gjerdevik, Miriam; Grydeland, Thomas; Skorge, Trude D; Wentzel-Larsen, Tore; Bakke, Per S

2015-10-01

Detailed and reliable methods may be important for discussions on the importance of pneumothorax size in clinical decision-making. Rhea's method is widely used to estimate pneumothorax size in percent based on chest X-rays (CXRs) from three measure points. Choi's addendum is used for anterioposterior projections. The aim of this study was to examine the intrarater and interrater reliability of the Rhea and Choi method using digital CXR in the ward based PACS monitors. Three physicians examined a retrospective series of 80 digital CXRs showing pneumothorax, using Rhea and Choi's method, then repeated in a random order two weeks later. We used the analysis of variance technique by Eliasziw et al. to assess the intrarater and interrater reliability in altogether 480 estimations of pneumothorax size. Estimated pneumothorax sizes ranged between 5% and 100%. The intrarater reliability coefficient was 0.98 (95% one-sided lower-limit confidence interval C 0.96), and the interrater reliability coefficient was 0.95 (95% one-sided lower-limit confidence interval 0.93). This study has shown that the Rhea and Choi method for calculating pneumothorax size has high intrarater and interrater reliability. These results are valid across gender, side of pneumothorax and whether the patient is diagnosed with primary or secondary pneumothorax. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Probability techniques for reliability analysis of composite materials

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wetherhold, Robert C.; Ucci, Anthony M.

1994-01-01

Traditional design approaches for composite materials have employed deterministic criteria for failure analysis. New approaches are required to predict the reliability of composite structures since strengths and stresses may be random variables. This report will examine and compare methods used to evaluate the reliability of composite laminae. The two types of methods that will be evaluated are fast probability integration (FPI) methods and Monte Carlo methods. In these methods, reliability is formulated as the probability that an explicit function of random variables is less than a given constant. Using failure criteria developed for composite materials, a function of design variables can be generated which defines a 'failure surface' in probability space. A number of methods are available to evaluate the integration over the probability space bounded by this surface; this integration delivers the required reliability. The methods which will be evaluated are: the first order, second moment FPI methods; second order, second moment FPI methods; the simple Monte Carlo; and an advanced Monte Carlo technique which utilizes importance sampling. The methods are compared for accuracy, efficiency, and for the conservativism of the reliability estimation. The methodology involved in determining the sensitivity of the reliability estimate to the design variables (strength distributions) and importance factors is also presented.

Report: Eleven Years After Agreement, EPA Has Not Developed Reliable Emission Estimation Methods to Determine Whether Animal Feeding Operations Comply With Clean Air Act and Other Statutes

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Report #17-P-0396, September 19, 2017. Until the EPA develops sound methods to estimate emissions, the agency cannot reliably determine whether animal feeding operations comply with applicable Clean Air Act requirements.

Uncertainties in obtaining high reliability from stress-strength models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Neal, Donald M.; Matthews, William T.; Vangel, Mark G.

1992-01-01

There has been a recent interest in determining high statistical reliability in risk assessment of aircraft components. The potential consequences are identified of incorrectly assuming a particular statistical distribution for stress or strength data used in obtaining the high reliability values. The computation of the reliability is defined as the probability of the strength being greater than the stress over the range of stress values. This method is often referred to as the stress-strength model. A sensitivity analysis was performed involving a comparison of reliability results in order to evaluate the effects of assuming specific statistical distributions. Both known population distributions, and those that differed slightly from the known, were considered. Results showed substantial differences in reliability estimates even for almost nondetectable differences in the assumed distributions. These differences represent a potential problem in using the stress-strength model for high reliability computations, since in practice it is impossible to ever know the exact (population) distribution. An alternative reliability computation procedure is examined involving determination of a lower bound on the reliability values using extreme value distributions. This procedure reduces the possibility of obtaining nonconservative reliability estimates. Results indicated the method can provide conservative bounds when computing high reliability. An alternative reliability computation procedure is examined involving determination of a lower bound on the reliability values using extreme value distributions. This procedure reduces the possibility of obtaining nonconservative reliability estimates. Results indicated the method can provide conservative bounds when computing high reliability.

Investigating the error sources of the online state of charge estimation methods for lithium-ion batteries in electric vehicles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Yuejiu; Ouyang, Minggao; Han, Xuebing; Lu, Languang; Li, Jianqiu

2018-02-01

Sate of charge (SOC) estimation is generally acknowledged as one of the most important functions in battery management system for lithium-ion batteries in new energy vehicles. Though every effort is made for various online SOC estimation methods to reliably increase the estimation accuracy as much as possible within the limited on-chip resources, little literature discusses the error sources for those SOC estimation methods. This paper firstly reviews the commonly studied SOC estimation methods from a conventional classification. A novel perspective focusing on the error analysis of the SOC estimation methods is proposed. SOC estimation methods are analyzed from the views of the measured values, models, algorithms and state parameters. Subsequently, the error flow charts are proposed to analyze the error sources from the signal measurement to the models and algorithms for the widely used online SOC estimation methods in new energy vehicles. Finally, with the consideration of the working conditions, choosing more reliable and applicable SOC estimation methods is discussed, and the future development of the promising online SOC estimation methods is suggested.

Evaluation of Validity and Reliability for Hierarchical Scales Using Latent Variable Modeling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Raykov, Tenko; Marcoulides, George A.

2012-01-01

A latent variable modeling method is outlined, which accomplishes estimation of criterion validity and reliability for a multicomponent measuring instrument with hierarchical structure. The approach provides point and interval estimates for the scale criterion validity and reliability coefficients, and can also be used for testing composite or…

Accuracy of the visual estimation method as a predictor of food intake in Alzheimer's patients provided with different types of food.

PubMed

Amano, Nobuko; Nakamura, Tomiyo

2018-02-01

The visual estimation method is commonly used in hospitals and other care facilities to evaluate food intake through estimation of plate waste. In Japan, no previous studies have investigated the validity and reliability of this method under the routine conditions of a hospital setting. The present study aimed to evaluate the validity and reliability of the visual estimation method, in long-term inpatients with different levels of eating disability caused by Alzheimer's disease. The patients were provided different therapeutic diets presented in various food types. This study was performed between February and April 2013, and 82 patients with Alzheimer's disease were included. Plate waste was evaluated for the 3 main daily meals, for a total of 21 days, 7 consecutive days during each of the 3 months, originating a total of 4851 meals, from which 3984 were included. Plate waste was measured by the nurses through the visual estimation method, and by the hospital's registered dietitians through the actual measurement method. The actual measurement method was first validated to serve as a reference, and the level of agreement between both methods was then determined. The month, time of day, type of food provided, and patients' physical characteristics were considered for analysis. For the 3984 meals included in the analysis, the level of agreement between the measurement methods was 78.4%. Disagreement of measurements consisted of 3.8% of underestimation and 17.8% of overestimation. Cronbach's α (0.60, P < 0.001) indicated that the reliability of the visual estimation method was within the acceptable range. The visual estimation method was found to be a valid and reliable method for estimating food intake in patients with different levels of eating impairment. The successful implementation and use of the method depends upon adequate training and motivation of the nurses and care staff involved. Copyright © 2017 European Society for Clinical Nutrition and Metabolism. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Use of Internal Consistency Coefficients for Estimating Reliability of Experimental Tasks Scores

PubMed Central

Green, Samuel B.; Yang, Yanyun; Alt, Mary; Brinkley, Shara; Gray, Shelley; Hogan, Tiffany; Cowan, Nelson

2017-01-01

Reliabilities of scores for experimental tasks are likely to differ from one study to another to the extent that the task stimuli change, the number of trials varies, the type of individuals taking the task changes, the administration conditions are altered, or the focal task variable differs. Given reliabilities vary as a function of the design of these tasks and the characteristics of the individuals taking them, making inferences about the reliability of scores in an ongoing study based on reliability estimates from prior studies is precarious. Thus, it would be advantageous to estimate reliability based on data from the ongoing study. We argue that internal consistency estimates of reliability are underutilized for experimental task data and in many applications could provide this information using a single administration of a task. We discuss different methods for computing internal consistency estimates with a generalized coefficient alpha and the conditions under which these estimates are accurate. We illustrate use of these coefficients using data for three different tasks. PMID:26546100

A study of fault prediction and reliability assessment in the SEL environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Basili, Victor R.; Patnaik, Debabrata

1986-01-01

An empirical study on estimation and prediction of faults, prediction of fault detection and correction effort, and reliability assessment in the Software Engineering Laboratory environment (SEL) is presented. Fault estimation using empirical relationships and fault prediction using curve fitting method are investigated. Relationships between debugging efforts (fault detection and correction effort) in different test phases are provided, in order to make an early estimate of future debugging effort. This study concludes with the fault analysis, application of a reliability model, and analysis of a normalized metric for reliability assessment and reliability monitoring during development of software.

A method of bias correction for maximal reliability with dichotomous measures.

PubMed

Penev, Spiridon; Raykov, Tenko

2010-02-01

This paper is concerned with the reliability of weighted combinations of a given set of dichotomous measures. Maximal reliability for such measures has been discussed in the past, but the pertinent estimator exhibits a considerable bias and mean squared error for moderate sample sizes. We examine this bias, propose a procedure for bias correction, and develop a more accurate asymptotic confidence interval for the resulting estimator. In most empirically relevant cases, the bias correction and mean squared error correction can be performed simultaneously. We propose an approximate (asymptotic) confidence interval for the maximal reliability coefficient, discuss the implementation of this estimator, and investigate the mean squared error of the associated asymptotic approximation. We illustrate the proposed methods using a numerical example.

Practical Issues in Implementing Software Reliability Measurement

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nikora, Allen P.; Schneidewind, Norman F.; Everett, William W.; Munson, John C.; Vouk, Mladen A.; Musa, John D.

1999-01-01

Many ways of estimating software systems' reliability, or reliability-related quantities, have been developed over the past several years. Of particular interest are methods that can be used to estimate a software system's fault content prior to test, or to discriminate between components that are fault-prone and those that are not. The results of these methods can be used to: 1) More accurately focus scarce fault identification resources on those portions of a software system most in need of it. 2) Estimate and forecast the risk of exposure to residual faults in a software system during operation, and develop risk and safety criteria to guide the release of a software system to fielded use. 3) Estimate the efficiency of test suites in detecting residual faults. 4) Estimate the stability of the software maintenance process.

Reliability of semiautomated computational methods for estimating tibiofemoral contact stress in the Multicenter Osteoarthritis Study.

PubMed

Anderson, Donald D; Segal, Neil A; Kern, Andrew M; Nevitt, Michael C; Torner, James C; Lynch, John A

2012-01-01

Recent findings suggest that contact stress is a potent predictor of subsequent symptomatic osteoarthritis development in the knee. However, much larger numbers of knees (likely on the order of hundreds, if not thousands) need to be reliably analyzed to achieve the statistical power necessary to clarify this relationship. This study assessed the reliability of new semiautomated computational methods for estimating contact stress in knees from large population-based cohorts. Ten knees of subjects from the Multicenter Osteoarthritis Study were included. Bone surfaces were manually segmented from sequential 1.0 Tesla magnetic resonance imaging slices by three individuals on two nonconsecutive days. Four individuals then registered the resulting bone surfaces to corresponding bone edges on weight-bearing radiographs, using a semi-automated algorithm. Discrete element analysis methods were used to estimate contact stress distributions for each knee. Segmentation and registration reliabilities (day-to-day and interrater) for peak and mean medial and lateral tibiofemoral contact stress were assessed with Shrout-Fleiss intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs). The segmentation and registration steps of the modeling approach were found to have excellent day-to-day (ICC 0.93-0.99) and good inter-rater reliability (0.84-0.97). This approach for estimating compartment-specific tibiofemoral contact stress appears to be sufficiently reliable for use in large population-based cohorts.

[A method to estimate the short-term fractal dimension of heart rate variability based on wavelet transform].

PubMed

Zhonggang, Liang; Hong, Yan

2006-10-01

A new method of calculating fractal dimension of short-term heart rate variability signals is presented. The method is based on wavelet transform and filter banks. The implementation of the method is: First of all we pick-up the fractal component from HRV signals using wavelet transform. Next, we estimate the power spectrum distribution of fractal component using auto-regressive model, and we estimate parameter 7 using the least square method. Finally according to formula D = 2- (gamma-1)/2 estimate fractal dimension of HRV signal. To validate the stability and reliability of the proposed method, using fractional brown movement simulate 24 fractal signals that fractal value is 1.6 to validate, the result shows that the method has stability and reliability.

Reliability of stellar inclination estimated from asteroseismology: analytical criteria, mock simulations and Kepler data analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kamiaka, Shoya; Benomar, Othman; Suto, Yasushi

2018-05-01

Advances in asteroseismology of solar-like stars, now provide a unique method to estimate the stellar inclination i⋆. This enables to evaluate the spin-orbit angle of transiting planetary systems, in a complementary fashion to the Rossiter-McLaughlineffect, a well-established method to estimate the projected spin-orbit angle λ. Although the asteroseismic method has been broadly applied to the Kepler data, its reliability has yet to be assessed intensively. In this work, we evaluate the accuracy of i⋆ from asteroseismology of solar-like stars using 3000 simulated power spectra. We find that the low signal-to-noise ratio of the power spectra induces a systematic under-estimate (over-estimate) bias for stars with high (low) inclinations. We derive analytical criteria for the reliable asteroseismic estimate, which indicates that reliable measurements are possible in the range of 20° ≲ i⋆ ≲ 80° only for stars with high signal-to-noise ratio. We also analyse and measure the stellar inclination of 94 Kepler main-sequence solar-like stars, among which 33 are planetary hosts. According to our reliability criteria, a third of them (9 with planets, 22 without) have accurate stellar inclination. Comparison of our asteroseismic estimate of vsin i⋆ against spectroscopic measurements indicates that the latter suffers from a large uncertainty possibly due to the modeling of macro-turbulence, especially for stars with projected rotation speed vsin i⋆ ≲ 5km/s. This reinforces earlier claims, and the stellar inclination estimated from the combination of measurements from spectroscopy and photometric variation for slowly rotating stars needs to be interpreted with caution.

Interval Estimation of Revision Effect on Scale Reliability via Covariance Structure Modeling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Raykov, Tenko

2009-01-01

A didactic discussion of a procedure for interval estimation of change in scale reliability due to revision is provided, which is developed within the framework of covariance structure modeling. The method yields ranges of plausible values for the population gain or loss in reliability of unidimensional composites, which results from deletion or…

Sample Size for Estimation of G and Phi Coefficients in Generalizability Theory

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Atilgan, Hakan

2013-01-01

Problem Statement: Reliability, which refers to the degree to which measurement results are free from measurement errors, as well as its estimation, is an important issue in psychometrics. Several methods for estimating reliability have been suggested by various theories in the field of psychometrics. One of these theories is the generalizability…

Methods and Costs to Achieve Ultra Reliable Life Support

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jones, Harry W.

2012-01-01

A published Mars mission is used to explore the methods and costs to achieve ultra reliable life support. The Mars mission and its recycling life support design are described. The life support systems were made triply redundant, implying that each individual system will have fairly good reliability. Ultra reliable life support is needed for Mars and other long, distant missions. Current systems apparently have insufficient reliability. The life cycle cost of the Mars life support system is estimated. Reliability can be increased by improving the intrinsic system reliability, adding spare parts, or by providing technically diverse redundant systems. The costs of these approaches are estimated. Adding spares is least costly but may be defeated by common cause failures. Using two technically diverse systems is effective but doubles the life cycle cost. Achieving ultra reliability is worth its high cost because the penalty for failure is very high.

Permeability Estimation of Rock Reservoir Based on PCA and Elman Neural Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Ying; Jian, Shaoyong

2018-03-01

an intelligent method which based on fuzzy neural networks with PCA algorithm, is proposed to estimate the permeability of rock reservoir. First, the dimensionality reduction process is utilized for these parameters by principal component analysis method. Further, the mapping relationship between rock slice characteristic parameters and permeability had been found through fuzzy neural networks. The estimation validity and reliability for this method were tested with practical data from Yan’an region in Ordos Basin. The result showed that the average relative errors of permeability estimation for this method is 6.25%, and this method had the better convergence speed and more accuracy than other. Therefore, by using the cheap rock slice related information, the permeability of rock reservoir can be estimated efficiently and accurately, and it is of high reliability, practicability and application prospect.

The hockey-stick method to estimate evening dim light melatonin onset (DLMO) in humans.

PubMed

Danilenko, Konstantin V; Verevkin, Evgeniy G; Antyufeev, Viktor S; Wirz-Justice, Anna; Cajochen, Christian

2014-04-01

The onset of melatonin secretion in the evening is the most reliable and most widely used index of circadian timing in humans. Saliva (or plasma) is usually sampled every 0.5-1 hours under dim-light conditions in the evening 5-6 hours before usual bedtime to assess the dim-light melatonin onset (DLMO). For many years, attempts have been made to find a reliable objective determination of melatonin onset time either by fixed or dynamic threshold approaches. The here-developed hockey-stick algorithm, used as an interactive computer-based approach, fits the evening melatonin profile by a piecewise linear-parabolic function represented as a straight line switching to the branch of a parabola. The switch point is considered to reliably estimate melatonin rise time. We applied the hockey-stick method to 109 half-hourly melatonin profiles to assess the DLMOs and compared these estimates to visual ratings from three experts in the field. The DLMOs of 103 profiles were considered to be clearly quantifiable. The hockey-stick DLMO estimates were on average 4 minutes earlier than the experts' estimates, with a range of -27 to +13 minutes; in 47% of the cases the difference fell within ±5 minutes, in 98% within -20 to +13 minutes. The raters' and hockey-stick estimates showed poor accordance with DLMOs defined by threshold methods. Thus, the hockey-stick algorithm is a reliable objective method to estimate melatonin rise time, which does not depend on a threshold value and is free from errors arising from differences in subjective circadian phase estimates. The method is available as a computerized program that can be easily used in research settings and clinical practice either for salivary or plasma melatonin values.

Transmission overhaul estimates for partial and full replacement at repair

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Savage, M.; Lewicki, D. G.

1991-01-01

Timely transmission overhauls increase in-flight service reliability greater than the calculated design reliabilities of the individual aircraft transmission components. Although necessary for aircraft safety, transmission overhauls contribute significantly to aircraft expense. Predictions of a transmission's maintenance needs at the design stage should enable the development of more cost effective and reliable transmissions in the future. The frequency is estimated of overhaul along with the number of transmissions or components needed to support the overhaul schedule. Two methods based on the two parameter Weibull statistical distribution for component life are used to estimate the time between transmission overhauls. These methods predict transmission lives for maintenance schedules which repair the transmission with a complete system replacement or repair only failed components of the transmission. An example illustrates the methods.

Estimates Of The Orbiter RSI Thermal Protection System Thermal Reliability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kolodziej, P.; Rasky, D. J.

2002-01-01

In support of the Space Shuttle Orbiter post-flight inspection, structure temperatures are recorded at selected positions on the windward, leeward, starboard and port surfaces. Statistical analysis of this flight data and a non-dimensional load interference (NDLI) method are used to estimate the thermal reliability at positions were reusable surface insulation (RSI) is installed. In this analysis, structure temperatures that exceed the design limit define the critical failure mode. At thirty-three positions the RSI thermal reliability is greater than 0.999999 for the missions studied. This is not the overall system level reliability of the thermal protection system installed on an Orbiter. The results from two Orbiters, OV-102 and OV-105, are in good agreement. The original RSI designs on the OV-102 Orbital Maneuvering System pods, which had low reliability, were significantly improved on OV-105. The NDLI method was also used to estimate thermal reliability from an assessment of TPS uncertainties that was completed shortly before the first Orbiter flight. Results fiom the flight data analysis and the pre-flight assessment agree at several positions near each other. The NDLI method is also effective for optimizing RSI designs to provide uniform thermal reliability on the acreage surface of reusable launch vehicles.

A Fresh Start for Flood Estimation in Ungauged Basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woods, R. A.

2017-12-01

The two standard methods for flood estimation in ungauged basins, regression-based statistical models and rainfall-runoff models using a design rainfall event, have survived relatively unchanged as the methods of choice for more than 40 years. Their technical implementation has developed greatly, but the models' representation of hydrological processes has not, despite a large volume of hydrological research. I suggest it is time to introduce more hydrology into flood estimation. The reliability of the current methods can be unsatisfactory. For example, despite the UK's relatively straightforward hydrology, regression estimates of the index flood are uncertain by +/- a factor of two (for a 95% confidence interval), an impractically large uncertainty for design. The standard error of rainfall-runoff model estimates is not usually known, but available assessments indicate poorer reliability than statistical methods. There is a practical need for improved reliability in flood estimation. Two promising candidates to supersede the existing methods are (i) continuous simulation by rainfall-runoff modelling and (ii) event-based derived distribution methods. The main challenge with continuous simulation methods in ungauged basins is to specify the model structure and parameter values, when calibration data are not available. This has been an active area of research for more than a decade, and this activity is likely to continue. The major challenges for the derived distribution method in ungauged catchments include not only the correct specification of model structure and parameter values, but also antecedent conditions (e.g. seasonal soil water balance). However, a much smaller community of researchers are active in developing or applying the derived distribution approach, and as a result slower progress is being made. A change in needed: surely we have learned enough about hydrology in the last 40 years that we can make a practical hydrological advance on our methods for flood estimation! A shift to new methods for flood estimation will not be taken lightly by practitioners. However, the standard for change is clear - can we develop new methods which give significant improvements in reliability over those existing methods which are demonstrably unsatisfactory?

Integrating Formal Methods and Testing 2002

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cukic, Bojan

2002-01-01

Traditionally, qualitative program verification methodologies and program testing are studied in separate research communities. None of them alone is powerful and practical enough to provide sufficient confidence in ultra-high reliability assessment when used exclusively. Significant advances can be made by accounting not only tho formal verification and program testing. but also the impact of many other standard V&V techniques, in a unified software reliability assessment framework. The first year of this research resulted in the statistical framework that, given the assumptions on the success of the qualitative V&V and QA procedures, significantly reduces the amount of testing needed to confidently assess reliability at so-called high and ultra-high levels (10-4 or higher). The coming years shall address the methodologies to realistically estimate the impacts of various V&V techniques to system reliability and include the impact of operational risk to reliability assessment. Combine formal correctness verification, process and product metrics, and other standard qualitative software assurance methods with statistical testing with the aim of gaining higher confidence in software reliability assessment for high-assurance applications. B) Quantify the impact of these methods on software reliability. C) Demonstrate that accounting for the effectiveness of these methods reduces the number of tests needed to attain certain confidence level. D) Quantify and justify the reliability estimate for systems developed using various methods.

Software Reliability 2002

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wallace, Dolores R.

2003-01-01

In FY01 we learned that hardware reliability models need substantial changes to account for differences in software, thus making software reliability measurements more effective, accurate, and easier to apply. These reliability models are generally based on familiar distributions or parametric methods. An obvious question is 'What new statistical and probability models can be developed using non-parametric and distribution-free methods instead of the traditional parametric method?" Two approaches to software reliability engineering appear somewhat promising. The first study, begin in FY01, is based in hardware reliability, a very well established science that has many aspects that can be applied to software. This research effort has investigated mathematical aspects of hardware reliability and has identified those applicable to software. Currently the research effort is applying and testing these approaches to software reliability measurement, These parametric models require much project data that may be difficult to apply and interpret. Projects at GSFC are often complex in both technology and schedules. Assessing and estimating reliability of the final system is extremely difficult when various subsystems are tested and completed long before others. Parametric and distribution free techniques may offer a new and accurate way of modeling failure time and other project data to provide earlier and more accurate estimates of system reliability.

Further assessment of a method to estimate reliability and validity of qualitative research findings.

PubMed

Hinds, P S; Scandrett-Hibden, S; McAulay, L S

1990-04-01

The reliability and validity of qualitative research findings are viewed with scepticism by some scientists. This scepticism is derived from the belief that qualitative researchers give insufficient attention to estimating reliability and validity of data, and the differences between quantitative and qualitative methods in assessing data. The danger of this scepticism is that relevant and applicable research findings will not be used. Our purpose is to describe an evaluative strategy for use with qualitative data, a strategy that is a synthesis of quantitative and qualitative assessment methods. Results of the strategy and factors that influence its use are also described.

Approximation Model Building for Reliability & Maintainability Characteristics of Reusable Launch Vehicles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Unal, Resit; Morris, W. Douglas; White, Nancy H.; Lepsch, Roger A.; Brown, Richard W.

2000-01-01

This paper describes the development of parametric models for estimating operational reliability and maintainability (R&M) characteristics for reusable vehicle concepts, based on vehicle size and technology support level. A R&M analysis tool (RMAT) and response surface methods are utilized to build parametric approximation models for rapidly estimating operational R&M characteristics such as mission completion reliability. These models that approximate RMAT, can then be utilized for fast analysis of operational requirements, for lifecycle cost estimating and for multidisciplinary sign optimization.

Bayesian Estimation of Reliability Burr Type XII Under Al-Bayyatis’ Suggest Loss Function with Numerical Solution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohammed, Amal A.; Abraheem, Sudad K.; Fezaa Al-Obedy, Nadia J.

2018-05-01

In this paper is considered with Burr type XII distribution. The maximum likelihood, Bayes methods of estimation are used for estimating the unknown scale parameter (α). Al-Bayyatis’ loss function and suggest loss function are used to find the reliability with the least loss. So the reliability function is expanded in terms of a set of power function. For this performance, the Matlab (ver.9) is used in computations and some examples are given.

Wind power error estimation in resource assessments.

PubMed

Rodríguez, Osvaldo; Del Río, Jesús A; Jaramillo, Oscar A; Martínez, Manuel

2015-01-01

Estimating the power output is one of the elements that determine the techno-economic feasibility of a renewable project. At present, there is a need to develop reliable methods that achieve this goal, thereby contributing to wind power penetration. In this study, we propose a method for wind power error estimation based on the wind speed measurement error, probability density function, and wind turbine power curves. This method uses the actual wind speed data without prior statistical treatment based on 28 wind turbine power curves, which were fitted by Lagrange's method, to calculate the estimate wind power output and the corresponding error propagation. We found that wind speed percentage errors of 10% were propagated into the power output estimates, thereby yielding an error of 5%. The proposed error propagation complements the traditional power resource assessments. The wind power estimation error also allows us to estimate intervals for the power production leveled cost or the investment time return. The implementation of this method increases the reliability of techno-economic resource assessment studies.

Wind Power Error Estimation in Resource Assessments

PubMed Central

Rodríguez, Osvaldo; del Río, Jesús A.; Jaramillo, Oscar A.; Martínez, Manuel

2015-01-01

Estimating the power output is one of the elements that determine the techno-economic feasibility of a renewable project. At present, there is a need to develop reliable methods that achieve this goal, thereby contributing to wind power penetration. In this study, we propose a method for wind power error estimation based on the wind speed measurement error, probability density function, and wind turbine power curves. This method uses the actual wind speed data without prior statistical treatment based on 28 wind turbine power curves, which were fitted by Lagrange's method, to calculate the estimate wind power output and the corresponding error propagation. We found that wind speed percentage errors of 10% were propagated into the power output estimates, thereby yielding an error of 5%. The proposed error propagation complements the traditional power resource assessments. The wind power estimation error also allows us to estimate intervals for the power production leveled cost or the investment time return. The implementation of this method increases the reliability of techno-economic resource assessment studies. PMID:26000444

Evaluating North American Electric Grid Reliability Using the Barabasi-Albert Network Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chassin, David P.; Posse, Christian

2005-09-15

The reliability of electric transmission systems is examined using a scale-free model of network topology and failure propagation. The topologies of the North American eastern and western electric grids are analyzed to estimate their reliability based on the Barabási-Albert network model. A commonly used power system reliability index is computed using a simple failure propagation model. The results are compared to the values of power system reliability indices previously obtained using other methods and they suggest that scale-free network models are usable to estimate aggregate electric grid reliability.

Evaluating North American Electric Grid Reliability Using the Barabasi-Albert Network Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chassin, David P.; Posse, Christian

2005-09-15

The reliability of electric transmission systems is examined using a scale-free model of network topology and failure propagation. The topologies of the North American eastern and western electric grids are analyzed to estimate their reliability based on the Barabasi-Albert network model. A commonly used power system reliability index is computed using a simple failure propagation model. The results are compared to the values of power system reliability indices previously obtained using standard power engineering methods, and they suggest that scale-free network models are usable to estimate aggregate electric grid reliability.

Can real time location system technology (RTLS) provide useful estimates of time use by nursing personnel?

PubMed

Jones, Terry L; Schlegel, Cara

2014-02-01

Accurate, precise, unbiased, reliable, and cost-effective estimates of nursing time use are needed to insure safe staffing levels. Direct observation of nurses is costly, and conventional surrogate measures have limitations. To test the potential of electronic capture of time and motion through real time location systems (RTLS), a pilot study was conducted to assess efficacy (method agreement) of RTLS time use; inter-rater reliability of RTLS time-use estimates; and associated costs. Method agreement was high (mean absolute difference = 28 seconds); inter-rater reliability was high (ICC = 0.81-0.95; mean absolute difference = 2 seconds); and costs for obtaining RTLS time-use estimates on a single nursing unit exceeded $25,000. Continued experimentation with RTLS to obtain time-use estimates for nursing staff is warranted. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Comparing capacity value estimation techniques for photovoltaic solar power

DOE PAGES

Madaeni, Seyed Hossein; Sioshansi, Ramteen; Denholm, Paul

2012-09-28

In this paper, we estimate the capacity value of photovoltaic (PV) solar plants in the western U.S. Our results show that PV plants have capacity values that range between 52% and 93%, depending on location and sun-tracking capability. We further compare more robust but data- and computationally-intense reliability-based estimation techniques with simpler approximation methods. We show that if implemented properly, these techniques provide accurate approximations of reliability-based methods. Overall, methods that are based on the weighted capacity factor of the plant provide the most accurate estimate. As a result, we also examine the sensitivity of PV capacity value to themore » inclusion of sun-tracking systems.« less

An Investment Level Decision Method to Secure Long-term Reliability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bamba, Satoshi; Yabe, Kuniaki; Seki, Tomomichi; Shibaya, Tetsuji

The slowdown in power demand increase and facility replacement causes the aging and lower reliability in power facility. And the aging is followed by the rapid increase of repair and replacement when many facilities reach their lifetime in future. This paper describes a method to estimate the repair and replacement costs in future by applying the life-cycle cost model and renewal theory to the historical data. This paper also describes a method to decide the optimum investment plan, which replaces facilities in the order of cost-effectiveness by setting replacement priority formula, and the minimum investment level to keep the reliability. Estimation examples applied to substation facilities show that the reasonable and leveled future cash-out can keep the reliability by lowering the percentage of replacements caused by fatal failures.

Reliability of Different Mark-Recapture Methods for Population Size Estimation Tested against Reference Population Sizes Constructed from Field Data

PubMed Central

Grimm, Annegret; Gruber, Bernd; Henle, Klaus

2014-01-01

Reliable estimates of population size are fundamental in many ecological studies and biodiversity conservation. Selecting appropriate methods to estimate abundance is often very difficult, especially if data are scarce. Most studies concerning the reliability of different estimators used simulation data based on assumptions about capture variability that do not necessarily reflect conditions in natural populations. Here, we used data from an intensively studied closed population of the arboreal gecko Gehyra variegata to construct reference population sizes for assessing twelve different population size estimators in terms of bias, precision, accuracy, and their 95%-confidence intervals. Two of the reference populations reflect natural biological entities, whereas the other reference populations reflect artificial subsets of the population. Since individual heterogeneity was assumed, we tested modifications of the Lincoln-Petersen estimator, a set of models in programs MARK and CARE-2, and a truncated geometric distribution. Ranking of methods was similar across criteria. Models accounting for individual heterogeneity performed best in all assessment criteria. For populations from heterogeneous habitats without obvious covariates explaining individual heterogeneity, we recommend using the moment estimator or the interpolated jackknife estimator (both implemented in CAPTURE/MARK). If data for capture frequencies are substantial, we recommend the sample coverage or the estimating equation (both models implemented in CARE-2). Depending on the distribution of catchabilities, our proposed multiple Lincoln-Petersen and a truncated geometric distribution obtained comparably good results. The former usually resulted in a minimum population size and the latter can be recommended when there is a long tail of low capture probabilities. Models with covariates and mixture models performed poorly. Our approach identified suitable methods and extended options to evaluate the performance of mark-recapture population size estimators under field conditions, which is essential for selecting an appropriate method and obtaining reliable results in ecology and conservation biology, and thus for sound management. PMID:24896260

Reliability analysis of structural ceramic components using a three-parameter Weibull distribution

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Duffy, Stephen F.; Powers, Lynn M.; Starlinger, Alois

1992-01-01

Described here are nonlinear regression estimators for the three-Weibull distribution. Issues relating to the bias and invariance associated with these estimators are examined numerically using Monte Carlo simulation methods. The estimators were used to extract parameters from sintered silicon nitride failure data. A reliability analysis was performed on a turbopump blade utilizing the three-parameter Weibull distribution and the estimates from the sintered silicon nitride data.

Identification of the contribution of the ankle and hip joints to multi-segmental balance control

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Human stance involves multiple segments, including the legs and trunk, and requires coordinated actions of both. A novel method was developed that reliably estimates the contribution of the left and right leg (i.e., the ankle and hip joints) to the balance control of individual subjects. Methods The method was evaluated using simulations of a double-inverted pendulum model and the applicability was demonstrated with an experiment with seven healthy and one Parkinsonian participant. Model simulations indicated that two perturbations are required to reliably estimate the dynamics of a double-inverted pendulum balance control system. In the experiment, two multisine perturbation signals were applied simultaneously. The balance control system dynamic behaviour of the participants was estimated by Frequency Response Functions (FRFs), which relate ankle and hip joint angles to joint torques, using a multivariate closed-loop system identification technique. Results In the model simulations, the FRFs were reliably estimated, also in the presence of realistic levels of noise. In the experiment, the participants responded consistently to the perturbations, indicated by low noise-to-signal ratios of the ankle angle (0.24), hip angle (0.28), ankle torque (0.07), and hip torque (0.33). The developed method could detect that the Parkinson patient controlled his balance asymmetrically, that is, the right ankle and hip joints produced more corrective torque. Conclusion The method allows for a reliable estimate of the multisegmental feedback mechanism that stabilizes stance, of individual participants and of separate legs. PMID:23433148

Structural Reliability Using Probability Density Estimation Methods Within NESSUS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chamis, Chrisos C. (Technical Monitor); Godines, Cody Ric

2003-01-01

A reliability analysis studies a mathematical model of a physical system taking into account uncertainties of design variables and common results are estimations of a response density, which also implies estimations of its parameters. Some common density parameters include the mean value, the standard deviation, and specific percentile(s) of the response, which are measures of central tendency, variation, and probability regions, respectively. Reliability analyses are important since the results can lead to different designs by calculating the probability of observing safe responses in each of the proposed designs. All of this is done at the expense of added computational time as compared to a single deterministic analysis which will result in one value of the response out of many that make up the density of the response. Sampling methods, such as monte carlo (MC) and latin hypercube sampling (LHS), can be used to perform reliability analyses and can compute nonlinear response density parameters even if the response is dependent on many random variables. Hence, both methods are very robust; however, they are computationally expensive to use in the estimation of the response density parameters. Both methods are 2 of 13 stochastic methods that are contained within the Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress (NESSUS) program. NESSUS is a probabilistic finite element analysis (FEA) program that was developed through funding from NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC). It has the additional capability of being linked to other analysis programs; therefore, probabilistic fluid dynamics, fracture mechanics, and heat transfer are only a few of what is possible with this software. The LHS method is the newest addition to the stochastic methods within NESSUS. Part of this work was to enhance NESSUS with the LHS method. The new LHS module is complete, has been successfully integrated with NESSUS, and been used to study four different test cases that have been proposed by the Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE). The test cases compare different probabilistic methods within NESSUS because it is important that a user can have confidence that estimates of stochastic parameters of a response will be within an acceptable error limit. For each response, the mean, standard deviation, and 0.99 percentile, are repeatedly estimated which allows confidence statements to be made for each parameter estimated, and for each method. Thus, the ability of several stochastic methods to efficiently and accurately estimate density parameters is compared using four valid test cases. While all of the reliability methods used performed quite well, for the new LHS module within NESSUS it was found that it had a lower estimation error than MC when they were used to estimate the mean, standard deviation, and 0.99 percentile of the four different stochastic responses. Also, LHS required a smaller amount of calculations to obtain low error answers with a high amount of confidence than MC. It can therefore be stated that NESSUS is an important reliability tool that has a variety of sound probabilistic methods a user can employ and the newest LHS module is a valuable new enhancement of the program.

Reliability optimization design of the gear modification coefficient based on the meshing stiffness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Qianqian; Wang, Hui

2018-04-01

Since the time varying meshing stiffness of gear system is the key factor affecting gear vibration, it is important to design the meshing stiffness to reduce vibration. Based on the effect of gear modification coefficient on the meshing stiffness, considering the random parameters, reliability optimization design of the gear modification is researched. The dimension reduction and point estimation method is used to estimate the moment of the limit state function, and the reliability is obtained by the forth moment method. The cooperation of the dynamic amplitude results before and after optimization indicates that the research is useful for the reduction of vibration and noise and the improvement of the reliability.

Software reliability perspectives

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Larry; Shen, Wenhui

1987-01-01

Software which is used in life critical functions must be known to be highly reliable before installation. This requires a strong testing program to estimate the reliability, since neither formal methods, software engineering nor fault tolerant methods can guarantee perfection. Prior to the final testing software goes through a debugging period and many models have been developed to try to estimate reliability from the debugging data. However, the existing models are poorly validated and often give poor performance. This paper emphasizes the fact that part of their failures can be attributed to the random nature of the debugging data given to these models as input, and it poses the problem of correcting this defect as an area of future research.

Modeling, implementation, and validation of arterial travel time reliability.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-11-01

Previous research funded by Florida Department of Transportation (FDOT) developed a method for estimating : travel time reliability for arterials. This method was not initially implemented or validated using field data. This : project evaluated and r...

Mechanical System Reliability and Cost Integration Using a Sequential Linear Approximation Method

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kowal, Michael T.

1997-01-01

The development of new products is dependent on product designs that incorporate high levels of reliability along with a design that meets predetermined levels of system cost. Additional constraints on the product include explicit and implicit performance requirements. Existing reliability and cost prediction methods result in no direct linkage between variables affecting these two dominant product attributes. A methodology to integrate reliability and cost estimates using a sequential linear approximation method is proposed. The sequential linear approximation method utilizes probability of failure sensitivities determined from probabilistic reliability methods as well a manufacturing cost sensitivities. The application of the sequential linear approximation method to a mechanical system is demonstrated.

The limits of protein sequence comparison?

PubMed Central

Pearson, William R; Sierk, Michael L

2010-01-01

Modern sequence alignment algorithms are used routinely to identify homologous proteins, proteins that share a common ancestor. Homologous proteins always share similar structures and often have similar functions. Over the past 20 years, sequence comparison has become both more sensitive, largely because of profile-based methods, and more reliable, because of more accurate statistical estimates. As sequence and structure databases become larger, and comparison methods become more powerful, reliable statistical estimates will become even more important for distinguishing similarities that are due to homology from those that are due to analogy (convergence). The newest sequence alignment methods are more sensitive than older methods, but more accurate statistical estimates are needed for their full power to be realized. PMID:15919194

Evaluation of the Applicability of Different Age Determination Methods for Estimating Age of the Endangered African Wild Dog (Lycaon Pictus).

PubMed

Mbizah, Moreangels M; Steenkamp, Gerhard; Groom, Rosemary J

2016-01-01

African wild dogs (Lycaon pictus) are endangered and their population continues to decline throughout their range. Given their conservation status, more research focused on their population dynamics, population growth and age specific mortality is needed and this requires reliable estimates of age and age of mortality. Various age determination methods from teeth and skull measurements have been applied in numerous studies and it is fundamental to test the validity of these methods and their applicability to different species. In this study we assessed the accuracy of estimating chronological age and age class of African wild dogs, from dental age measured by (i) counting cementum annuli (ii) pulp cavity/tooth width ratio, (iii) tooth wear (measured by tooth crown height) (iv) tooth wear (measured by tooth crown width/crown height ratio) (v) tooth weight and (vi) skull measurements (length, width and height). A sample of 29 African wild dog skulls, from opportunistically located carcasses was analysed. Linear and ordinal regression analysis was done to investigate the performance of each of the six age determination methods in predicting wild dog chronological age and age class. Counting cementum annuli was the most accurate method for estimating chronological age of wild dogs with a 79% predictive capacity, while pulp cavity/tooth width ratio was also a reliable method with a 68% predictive capacity. Counting cementum annuli and pulp cavity/tooth width ratio were again the most accurate methods for separating wild dogs into three age classes (6-24 months; 25-60 months and > 60 months), with a McFadden's Pseudo-R2 of 0.705 and 0.412 respectively. The use of the cementum annuli method is recommended when estimating age of wild dogs since it is the most reliable method. However, its use is limited as it requires tooth extraction and shipping, is time consuming and expensive, and is not applicable to living individuals. Pulp cavity/tooth width ratio is a moderately reliable method for estimating both chronological age and age class. This method gives a balance between accuracy, cost and practicability, therefore it is recommended when precise age estimations are not paramount.

Evaluation of the Applicability of Different Age Determination Methods for Estimating Age of the Endangered African Wild Dog (Lycaon Pictus)

PubMed Central

Steenkamp, Gerhard; Groom, Rosemary J.

2016-01-01

African wild dogs (Lycaon pictus) are endangered and their population continues to decline throughout their range. Given their conservation status, more research focused on their population dynamics, population growth and age specific mortality is needed and this requires reliable estimates of age and age of mortality. Various age determination methods from teeth and skull measurements have been applied in numerous studies and it is fundamental to test the validity of these methods and their applicability to different species. In this study we assessed the accuracy of estimating chronological age and age class of African wild dogs, from dental age measured by (i) counting cementum annuli (ii) pulp cavity/tooth width ratio, (iii) tooth wear (measured by tooth crown height) (iv) tooth wear (measured by tooth crown width/crown height ratio) (v) tooth weight and (vi) skull measurements (length, width and height). A sample of 29 African wild dog skulls, from opportunistically located carcasses was analysed. Linear and ordinal regression analysis was done to investigate the performance of each of the six age determination methods in predicting wild dog chronological age and age class. Counting cementum annuli was the most accurate method for estimating chronological age of wild dogs with a 79% predictive capacity, while pulp cavity/tooth width ratio was also a reliable method with a 68% predictive capacity. Counting cementum annuli and pulp cavity/tooth width ratio were again the most accurate methods for separating wild dogs into three age classes (6–24 months; 25–60 months and > 60 months), with a McFadden’s Pseudo-R2 of 0.705 and 0.412 respectively. The use of the cementum annuli method is recommended when estimating age of wild dogs since it is the most reliable method. However, its use is limited as it requires tooth extraction and shipping, is time consuming and expensive, and is not applicable to living individuals. Pulp cavity/tooth width ratio is a moderately reliable method for estimating both chronological age and age class. This method gives a balance between accuracy, cost and practicability, therefore it is recommended when precise age estimations are not paramount. PMID:27732663

The reliability and internal consistency of one-shot and flicker change detection for measuring individual differences in visual working memory capacity.

PubMed

Pailian, Hrag; Halberda, Justin

2015-04-01

We investigated the psychometric properties of the one-shot change detection task for estimating visual working memory (VWM) storage capacity-and also introduced and tested an alternative flicker change detection task for estimating these limits. In three experiments, we found that the one-shot whole-display task returns estimates of VWM storage capacity (K) that are unreliable across set sizes-suggesting that the whole-display task is measuring different things at different set sizes. In two additional experiments, we found that the one-shot single-probe variant shows improvements in the reliability and consistency of K estimates. In another additional experiment, we found that a one-shot whole-display-with-click task (requiring target localization) also showed improvements in reliability and consistency. The latter results suggest that the one-shot task can return reliable and consistent estimates of VWM storage capacity (K), and they highlight the possibility that the requirement to localize the changed target is what engenders this enhancement. Through a final series of four experiments, we introduced and tested an alternative flicker change detection method that also requires the observer to localize the changing target and that generates, from response times, an estimate of VWM storage capacity (K). We found that estimates of K from the flicker task correlated with estimates from the traditional one-shot task and also had high reliability and consistency. We highlight the flicker method's ability to estimate executive functions as well as VWM storage capacity, and discuss the potential for measuring multiple abilities with the one-shot and flicker tasks.

Evaluation of Reliability Coefficients for Two-Level Models via Latent Variable Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Raykov, Tenko; Penev, Spiridon

2010-01-01

A latent variable analysis procedure for evaluation of reliability coefficients for 2-level models is outlined. The method provides point and interval estimates of group means' reliability, overall reliability of means, and conditional reliability. In addition, the approach can be used to test simple hypotheses about these parameters. The…

Reliability and limits of agreement of circumferential, water displacement, and optoelectronic volumetry in the measurement of upper limb lymphedema.

PubMed

Deltombe, T; Jamart, J; Recloux, S; Legrand, C; Vandenbroeck, N; Theys, S; Hanson, P

2007-03-01

We conducted a reliability comparison study to determine the intrarater and inter-rater reliability and the limits of agreement of the volume estimated by circumferential measurements using the frustum sign method and the disk model method, by water displacement volumetry, and by infrared optoelectronic volumetry in the assessment of upper limb lymphedema. Thirty women with lymphedema following axillary lymph node dissection surgery for breast cancer surgery were enrolled. In each patient, the volumes of the upper limbs were estimated by three physical therapists using circumference measurements, water displacement and optoelectronic volumetry. One of the physical therapists performed each measure twice. Intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs), relative differences, and limits of agreement were determined. Intrarater and interrater reliability ICCs ranged from 0.94 to 1. Intrarater relative differences were 1.9% for the disk model method, 3.2% for the frustum sign model method, 2.9% for water displacement volumetry, and 1.5% for optoelectronic volumetry. Intrarater reliability was always better than interrater, except for the optoelectronic method. Intrarater and interrater limits of agreement were calculated for each technique. The disk model method and optoelectronic volumetry had better reliability than the frustum sign method and water displacement volumetry, which is usually considered to be the gold standard. In terms of low-cost, simplicity, and reliability, we recommend the disk model method as the method of choice in clinical practice. Since intrarater reliability was always better than interrater reliability (except for optoelectronic volumetry), patients should therefore, ideally, always be evaluated by the same therapist. Additionally, the limits of agreement must be taken into account when determining the response of a patient to treatment.

Test Reliability at the Individual Level

PubMed Central

Hu, Yueqin; Nesselroade, John R.; Erbacher, Monica K.; Boker, Steven M.; Burt, S. Alexandra; Keel, Pamela K.; Neale, Michael C.; Sisk, Cheryl L.; Klump, Kelly

2016-01-01

Reliability has a long history as one of the key psychometric properties of a test. However, a given test might not measure people equally reliably. Test scores from some individuals may have considerably greater error than others. This study proposed two approaches using intraindividual variation to estimate test reliability for each person. A simulation study suggested that the parallel tests approach and the structural equation modeling approach recovered the simulated reliability coefficients. Then in an empirical study, where forty-five females were measured daily on the Positive and Negative Affect Schedule (PANAS) for 45 consecutive days, separate estimates of reliability were generated for each person. Results showed that reliability estimates of the PANAS varied substantially from person to person. The methods provided in this article apply to tests measuring changeable attributes and require repeated measures across time on each individual. This article also provides a set of parallel forms of PANAS. PMID:28936107

Reduction of bias and variance for evaluation of computer-aided diagnostic schemes.

PubMed

Li, Qiang; Doi, Kunio

2006-04-01

Computer-aided diagnostic (CAD) schemes have been developed to assist radiologists in detecting various lesions in medical images. In addition to the development, an equally important problem is the reliable evaluation of the performance levels of various CAD schemes. It is good to see that more and more investigators are employing more reliable evaluation methods such as leave-one-out and cross validation, instead of less reliable methods such as resubstitution, for assessing their CAD schemes. However, the common applications of leave-one-out and cross-validation evaluation methods do not necessarily imply that the estimated performance levels are accurate and precise. Pitfalls often occur in the use of leave-one-out and cross-validation evaluation methods, and they lead to unreliable estimation of performance levels. In this study, we first identified a number of typical pitfalls for the evaluation of CAD schemes, and conducted a Monte Carlo simulation experiment for each of the pitfalls to demonstrate quantitatively the extent of bias and/or variance caused by the pitfall. Our experimental results indicate that considerable bias and variance may exist in the estimated performance levels of CAD schemes if one employs various flawed leave-one-out and cross-validation evaluation methods. In addition, for promoting and utilizing a high standard for reliable evaluation of CAD schemes, we attempt to make recommendations, whenever possible, for overcoming these pitfalls. We believe that, with the recommended evaluation methods, we can considerably reduce the bias and variance in the estimated performance levels of CAD schemes.

Reliability and reproducibility of several methods of arthroscopic assessment of femoral tunnel position during anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction.

PubMed

Ilahi, Omer A; Mansfield, David J; Urrea, Luis H; Qadeer, Ali A

2014-10-01

To assess interobserver and intraobserver agreement of estimating anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) femoral tunnel positioning arthroscopically using circular and linear (noncircular) estimation methods and to determine whether overlay template visual aids improve agreement. Standardized intraoperative pictures of femoral tunnel pilot holes (taken with a 30° arthroscope through an anterolateral portal at 90° of knee flexion with horizontal being parallel to the tibial surface) in 27 patients undergoing single-bundle ACL reconstruction were presented to 3 fellowship-trained arthroscopists on 2 separate occasions. On both viewings, each surgeon estimated the femoral tunnel pilot hole location to the nearest half-hour mark using a whole clock face and half clock face, to the nearest 15° using a whole compass and half compass, in the top or bottom half of a linear quadrant, and in the top or bottom half of a linear trisector. Evaluations were performed first without and then with an overlay template of each estimation method. The average difference among reviewers was quite similar for all 4 circular methods with the use of visual aids. Without overlay template visual aids, pair-wise κ statistic values for interobserver agreement ranged from -0.14 to 0.56 for the whole clock face and from 0.16 to 0.42 for the half clock face. With overlay visual guides, interobserver agreement ranged from 0.29 to 0.63 for the whole clock face and from 0.17 to 0.66 for the half clock face. The quadrant method's interobserver agreement ranged from 0.22 to 0.60, and that of the trisection method ranged from 0.17 to 0.57. Neither linear estimation method's reliability uniformly improved with the use of overlay templates. Intraobserver agreement without overlay templates ranged from 0.17 to 0.49 for the whole clock face, 0.11 to 0.47 for the half clock face, 0.01 to 0.66 for the quadrant method, and 0.20 to 0.57 for the trisection method. Use of overlay templates did not uniformly improve intraobserver agreement for any estimation method. There does not appear to be any advantage of using a half clock face or compass for estimating femoral tunnel position compared with a whole clock-face analogy. Visual reference aids appear to improve interobserver agreement (reliability) of circular analogies. The linear quadrant appears to be the most reliable method (fair to moderate agreement) for estimating femoral tunnel position without a visual aid for reference, but even better reliability, ranging from fair to good agreement, may be obtained by using the whole clock-face analogy with a visual aid. Increasing femoral tunnel position reliability may improve outcomes of ACL reconstruction surgery. Copyright © 2014 Arthroscopy Association of North America. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Estimation of distributional parameters for censored trace level water quality data: 2. Verification and applications

USGS Publications Warehouse

Helsel, Dennis R.; Gilliom, Robert J.

1986-01-01

Estimates of distributional parameters (mean, standard deviation, median, interquartile range) are often desired for data sets containing censored observations. Eight methods for estimating these parameters have been evaluated by R. J. Gilliom and D. R. Helsel (this issue) using Monte Carlo simulations. To verify those findings, the same methods are now applied to actual water quality data. The best method (lowest root-mean-squared error (rmse)) over all parameters, sample sizes, and censoring levels is log probability regression (LR), the method found best in the Monte Carlo simulations. Best methods for estimating moment or percentile parameters separately are also identical to the simulations. Reliability of these estimates can be expressed as confidence intervals using rmse and bias values taken from the simulation results. Finally, a new simulation study shows that best methods for estimating uncensored sample statistics from censored data sets are identical to those for estimating population parameters. Thus this study and the companion study by Gilliom and Helsel form the basis for making the best possible estimates of either population parameters or sample statistics from censored water quality data, and for assessments of their reliability.

Bayes Error Rate Estimation Using Classifier Ensembles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tumer, Kagan; Ghosh, Joydeep

2003-01-01

The Bayes error rate gives a statistical lower bound on the error achievable for a given classification problem and the associated choice of features. By reliably estimating th is rate, one can assess the usefulness of the feature set that is being used for classification. Moreover, by comparing the accuracy achieved by a given classifier with the Bayes rate, one can quantify how effective that classifier is. Classical approaches for estimating or finding bounds for the Bayes error, in general, yield rather weak results for small sample sizes; unless the problem has some simple characteristics, such as Gaussian class-conditional likelihoods. This article shows how the outputs of a classifier ensemble can be used to provide reliable and easily obtainable estimates of the Bayes error with negligible extra computation. Three methods of varying sophistication are described. First, we present a framework that estimates the Bayes error when multiple classifiers, each providing an estimate of the a posteriori class probabilities, a recombined through averaging. Second, we bolster this approach by adding an information theoretic measure of output correlation to the estimate. Finally, we discuss a more general method that just looks at the class labels indicated by ensem ble members and provides error estimates based on the disagreements among classifiers. The methods are illustrated for artificial data, a difficult four-class problem involving underwater acoustic data, and two problems from the Problem benchmarks. For data sets with known Bayes error, the combiner-based methods introduced in this article outperform existing methods. The estimates obtained by the proposed methods also seem quite reliable for the real-life data sets for which the true Bayes rates are unknown.

Resimulation of noise: a precision estimator for least square error curve-fitting tested for axial strain time constant imaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nair, S. P.; Righetti, R.

2015-05-01

Recent elastography techniques focus on imaging information on properties of materials which can be modeled as viscoelastic or poroelastic. These techniques often require the fitting of temporal strain data, acquired from either a creep or stress-relaxation experiment to a mathematical model using least square error (LSE) parameter estimation. It is known that the strain versus time relationships for tissues undergoing creep compression have a non-linear relationship. In non-linear cases, devising a measure of estimate reliability can be challenging. In this article, we have developed and tested a method to provide non linear LSE parameter estimate reliability: which we called Resimulation of Noise (RoN). RoN provides a measure of reliability by estimating the spread of parameter estimates from a single experiment realization. We have tested RoN specifically for the case of axial strain time constant parameter estimation in poroelastic media. Our tests show that the RoN estimated precision has a linear relationship to the actual precision of the LSE estimator. We have also compared results from the RoN derived measure of reliability against a commonly used reliability measure: the correlation coefficient (CorrCoeff). Our results show that CorrCoeff is a poor measure of estimate reliability for non-linear LSE parameter estimation. While the RoN is specifically tested only for axial strain time constant imaging, a general algorithm is provided for use in all LSE parameter estimation.

Accuracy and Reliability of the Klales et al. (2012) Morphoscopic Pelvic Sexing Method.

PubMed

Lesciotto, Kate M; Doershuk, Lily J

2018-01-01

Klales et al. (2012) devised an ordinal scoring system for the morphoscopic pelvic traits described by Phenice (1969) and used for sex estimation of skeletal remains. The aim of this study was to test the accuracy and reliability of the Klales method using a large sample from the Hamann-Todd collection (n = 279). Two observers were blinded to sex, ancestry, and age and used the Klales et al. method to estimate the sex of each individual. Sex was correctly estimated for females with over 95% accuracy; however, the male allocation accuracy was approximately 50%. Weighted Cohen's kappa and intraclass correlation coefficient analysis for evaluating intra- and interobserver error showed moderate to substantial agreement for all traits. Although each trait can be reliably scored using the Klales method, low accuracy rates and high sex bias indicate better trait descriptions and visual guides are necessary to more accurately reflect the range of morphological variation. © 2017 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

Optimizing Probability of Detection Point Estimate Demonstration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koshti, Ajay M.

2017-01-01

Probability of detection (POD) analysis is used in assessing reliably detectable flaw size in nondestructive evaluation (NDE). MIL-HDBK-18231and associated mh18232POD software gives most common methods of POD analysis. Real flaws such as cracks and crack-like flaws are desired to be detected using these NDE methods. A reliably detectable crack size is required for safe life analysis of fracture critical parts. The paper provides discussion on optimizing probability of detection (POD) demonstration experiments using Point Estimate Method. POD Point estimate method is used by NASA for qualifying special NDE procedures. The point estimate method uses binomial distribution for probability density. Normally, a set of 29 flaws of same size within some tolerance are used in the demonstration. The optimization is performed to provide acceptable value for probability of passing demonstration (PPD) and achieving acceptable value for probability of false (POF) calls while keeping the flaw sizes in the set as small as possible.

Estimating respiratory rate from FBG optical sensors by using signal quality measurement.

PubMed

Yongwei Zhu; Maniyeri, Jayachandran; Fook, Victor Foo Siang; Haihong Zhang

2015-08-01

Non-intrusiveness is one of the advantages of in-bed optical sensor device for monitoring vital signs, including heart rate and respiratory rate. Estimating respiratory rate reliably using such sensors, however, is challenging, due to body movement, signal variation according to different subjects or body positions, etc. This paper presents a method for reliable respiratory rate estimation for FBG optical sensors by introducing signal quality estimation. The method estimates the quality of the signal waveform by detecting regularly repetitive patterns using proposed spectrum and cepstrum analysis. Multiple window sizes are used to cater for a wide range of target respiratory rates. Furthermore, the readings of multiple sensors are fused to derive a final respiratory rate. Experiments with 12 subjects and 2 body positions were conducted using polysomnography belt signal as groundtruth. The results demonstrated the effectiveness of the method.

Skeletal age estimation for forensic purposes: A comparison of GP, TW2 and TW3 methods on an Italian sample.

PubMed

Pinchi, Vilma; De Luca, Federica; Ricciardi, Federico; Focardi, Martina; Piredda, Valentina; Mazzeo, Elena; Norelli, Gian-Aristide

2014-05-01

Paediatricians, radiologists, anthropologists and medico-legal specialists are often called as experts in order to provide age estimation (AE) for forensic purposes. The literature recommends performing the X-rays of the left hand and wrist (HW-XR) for skeletal age estimation. The method most frequently employed is the Greulich and Pyle (GP) method. In addition, the so-called bone-specific techniques are also applied including the method of Tanner Whitehouse (TW) in the latest versions TW2 and TW3. To compare skeletal age and chronological age in a large sample of children and adolescents using GP, TW2 and TW3 methods in order to establish which of these is the most reliable for forensic purposes. The sample consisted of 307 HW-XRs of Italian children or adolescents, 145 females and 162 males aged between 6 and 20 years. The radiographies were scored according to the GP, TW2RUS and TW3RUS methods by one investigator. The results' reliability was assessed using intraclass correlation coefficient. Wilcoxon signed-rank test and Student t-test were performed to search for significant differences between skeletal and chronological ages. The distributions of the differences between estimated and chronological age, by means of boxplots, show how median differences for TW3 and GP methods are generally very close to 0. Hypothesis tests' results were obtained, with respect to the sex, both for the entire group of individuals and people grouped by age. Results show no significant differences among estimated and chronological age for TW3 and, to a lesser extent, GP. The TW2 proved to be the worst of the three methods. Our results support the conclusion that the TW2 method is not reliable for AE for forensic purpose. The GP and TW3 methods have proved to be reliable in males. For females, the best method was found to be TW3. When performing forensic age estimation in subjects around 14 years of age, it could be advisable to use and associate the TW3 and GP methods. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Reliable estimation of orbit errors in spaceborne SAR interferometry. The network approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bähr, Hermann; Hanssen, Ramon F.

2012-12-01

An approach to improve orbital state vectors by orbit error estimates derived from residual phase patterns in synthetic aperture radar interferograms is presented. For individual interferograms, an error representation by two parameters is motivated: the baseline error in cross-range and the rate of change of the baseline error in range. For their estimation, two alternatives are proposed: a least squares approach that requires prior unwrapping and a less reliable gridsearch method handling the wrapped phase. In both cases, reliability is enhanced by mutual control of error estimates in an overdetermined network of linearly dependent interferometric combinations of images. Thus, systematic biases, e.g., due to unwrapping errors, can be detected and iteratively eliminated. Regularising the solution by a minimum-norm condition results in quasi-absolute orbit errors that refer to particular images. For the 31 images of a sample ENVISAT dataset, orbit corrections with a mutual consistency on the millimetre level have been inferred from 163 interferograms. The method itself qualifies by reliability and rigorous geometric modelling of the orbital error signal but does not consider interfering large scale deformation effects. However, a separation may be feasible in a combined processing with persistent scatterer approaches or by temporal filtering of the estimates.

Perceptual and Acoustic Reliability Estimates for the Speech Disorders Classification System (SDCS)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shriberg, Lawrence D.; Fourakis, Marios; Hall, Sheryl D.; Karlsson, Heather B.; Lohmeier, Heather L.; McSweeny, Jane L.; Potter, Nancy L.; Scheer-Cohen, Alison R.; Strand, Edythe A.; Tilkens, Christie M.; Wilson, David L.

2010-01-01

A companion paper describes three extensions to a classification system for paediatric speech sound disorders termed the Speech Disorders Classification System (SDCS). The SDCS uses perceptual and acoustic data reduction methods to obtain information on a speaker's speech, prosody, and voice. The present paper provides reliability estimates for…

Development of a probabilistic analysis methodology for structural reliability estimation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Torng, T. Y.; Wu, Y.-T.

1991-01-01

The novel probabilistic analysis method for assessment of structural reliability presented, which combines fast-convolution with an efficient structural reliability analysis, can after identifying the most important point of a limit state proceed to establish a quadratic-performance function. It then transforms the quadratic function into a linear one, and applies fast convolution. The method is applicable to problems requiring computer-intensive structural analysis. Five illustrative examples of the method's application are given.

Small sample estimation of the reliability function for technical products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lyamets, L. L.; Yakimenko, I. V.; Kanishchev, O. A.; Bliznyuk, O. A.

2017-12-01

It is demonstrated that, in the absence of big statistic samples obtained as a result of testing complex technical products for failure, statistic estimation of the reliability function of initial elements can be made by the moments method. A formal description of the moments method is given and its advantages in the analysis of small censored samples are discussed. A modified algorithm is proposed for the implementation of the moments method with the use of only the moments at which the failures of initial elements occur.

Distributed processing of a GPS receiver network for a regional ionosphere map

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, Kwang Ho; Hoo Lim, Joon; Yoo, Won Jae; Lee, Hyung Keun

2018-01-01

This paper proposes a distributed processing method applicable to GPS receivers in a network to generate a regional ionosphere map accurately and reliably. For accuracy, the proposed method is operated by multiple local Kalman filters and Kriging estimators. Each local Kalman filter is applied to a dual-frequency receiver to estimate the receiver’s differential code bias and vertical ionospheric delays (VIDs) at different ionospheric pierce points. The Kriging estimator selects and combines several VID estimates provided by the local Kalman filters to generate the VID estimate at each ionospheric grid point. For reliability, the proposed method uses receiver fault detectors and satellite fault detectors. Each receiver fault detector compares the VID estimates of the same local area provided by different local Kalman filters. Each satellite fault detector compares the VID estimate of each local area with that projected from the other local areas. Compared with the traditional centralized processing method, the proposed method is advantageous in that it considerably reduces the computational burden of each single Kalman filter and enables flexible fault detection, isolation, and reconfiguration capability. To evaluate the performance of the proposed method, several experiments with field collected measurements were performed.

Internal Consistency, Retest Reliability, and their Implications For Personality Scale Validity

PubMed Central

McCrae, Robert R.; Kurtz, John E.; Yamagata, Shinji; Terracciano, Antonio

2010-01-01

We examined data (N = 34,108) on the differential reliability and validity of facet scales from the NEO Inventories. We evaluated the extent to which (a) psychometric properties of facet scales are generalizable across ages, cultures, and methods of measurement; and (b) validity criteria are associated with different forms of reliability. Composite estimates of facet scale stability, heritability, and cross-observer validity were broadly generalizable. Two estimates of retest reliability were independent predictors of the three validity criteria; none of three estimates of internal consistency was. Available evidence suggests the same pattern of results for other personality inventories. Internal consistency of scales can be useful as a check on data quality, but appears to be of limited utility for evaluating the potential validity of developed scales, and it should not be used as a substitute for retest reliability. Further research on the nature and determinants of retest reliability is needed. PMID:20435807

Lifetime prediction and reliability estimation methodology for Stirling-type pulse tube refrigerators by gaseous contamination accelerated degradation testing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wan, Fubin; Tan, Yuanyuan; Jiang, Zhenhua; Chen, Xun; Wu, Yinong; Zhao, Peng

2017-12-01

Lifetime and reliability are the two performance parameters of premium importance for modern space Stirling-type pulse tube refrigerators (SPTRs), which are required to operate in excess of 10 years. Demonstration of these parameters provides a significant challenge. This paper proposes a lifetime prediction and reliability estimation method that utilizes accelerated degradation testing (ADT) for SPTRs related to gaseous contamination failure. The method was experimentally validated via three groups of gaseous contamination ADT. First, the performance degradation model based on mechanism of contamination failure and material outgassing characteristics of SPTRs was established. Next, a preliminary test was performed to determine whether the mechanism of contamination failure of the SPTRs during ADT is consistent with normal life testing. Subsequently, the experimental program of ADT was designed for SPTRs. Then, three groups of gaseous contamination ADT were performed at elevated ambient temperatures of 40 °C, 50 °C, and 60 °C, respectively and the estimated lifetimes of the SPTRs under normal condition were obtained through acceleration model (Arrhenius model). The results show good fitting of the degradation model with the experimental data. Finally, we obtained the reliability estimation of SPTRs through using the Weibull distribution. The proposed novel methodology enables us to take less than one year time to estimate the reliability of the SPTRs designed for more than 10 years.

Methods for determining time of death.

PubMed

Madea, Burkhard

2016-12-01

Medicolegal death time estimation must estimate the time since death reliably. Reliability can only be provided empirically by statistical analysis of errors in field studies. Determining the time since death requires the calculation of measurable data along a time-dependent curve back to the starting point. Various methods are used to estimate the time since death. The current gold standard for death time estimation is a previously established nomogram method based on the two-exponential model of body cooling. Great experimental and practical achievements have been realized using this nomogram method. To reduce the margin of error of the nomogram method, a compound method was developed based on electrical and mechanical excitability of skeletal muscle, pharmacological excitability of the iris, rigor mortis, and postmortem lividity. Further increasing the accuracy of death time estimation involves the development of conditional probability distributions for death time estimation based on the compound method. Although many studies have evaluated chemical methods of death time estimation, such methods play a marginal role in daily forensic practice. However, increased precision of death time estimation has recently been achieved by considering various influencing factors (i.e., preexisting diseases, duration of terminal episode, and ambient temperature). Putrefactive changes may be used for death time estimation in water-immersed bodies. Furthermore, recently developed technologies, such as H magnetic resonance spectroscopy, can be used to quantitatively study decompositional changes. This review addresses the gold standard method of death time estimation in forensic practice and promising technological and scientific developments in the field.

Estimating the Effect of Changes in Criterion Score Reliability on the Power of the "F" Test of Equality of Means

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Feldt, Leonard S.

2011-01-01

This article presents a simple, computer-assisted method of determining the extent to which increases in reliability increase the power of the "F" test of equality of means. The method uses a derived formula that relates the changes in the reliability coefficient to changes in the noncentrality of the relevant "F" distribution. A readily available…

Constructing the 'Best' Reliability Data for the Job - Developing Generic Reliability Data from Alternative Sources Early in a Product's Development Phase

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kleinhammer, Roger K.; Graber, Robert R.; DeMott, D. L.

2016-01-01

Reliability practitioners advocate getting reliability involved early in a product development process. However, when assigned to estimate or assess the (potential) reliability of a product or system early in the design and development phase, they are faced with lack of reasonable models or methods for useful reliability estimation. Developing specific data is costly and time consuming. Instead, analysts rely on available data to assess reliability. Finding data relevant to the specific use and environment for any project is difficult, if not impossible. Instead, analysts attempt to develop the "best" or composite analog data to support the assessments. Industries, consortia and vendors across many areas have spent decades collecting, analyzing and tabulating fielded item and component reliability performance in terms of observed failures and operational use. This data resource provides a huge compendium of information for potential use, but can also be compartmented by industry, difficult to find out about, access, or manipulate. One method used incorporates processes for reviewing these existing data sources and identifying the available information based on similar equipment, then using that generic data to derive an analog composite. Dissimilarities in equipment descriptions, environment of intended use, quality and even failure modes impact the "best" data incorporated in an analog composite. Once developed, this composite analog data provides a "better" representation of the reliability of the equipment or component. It can be used to support early risk or reliability trade studies, or analytical models to establish the predicted reliability data points. It also establishes a baseline prior that may updated based on test data or observed operational constraints and failures, i.e., using Bayesian techniques. This tutorial presents a descriptive compilation of historical data sources across numerous industries and disciplines, along with examples of contents and data characteristics. It then presents methods for combining failure information from different sources and mathematical use of this data in early reliability estimation and analyses.

Investigating the Stability of Four Methods for Estimating Item Bias.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Perlman, Carole L.; And Others

The reliability of item bias estimates was studied for four methods: (1) the transformed delta method; (2) Shepard's modified delta method; (3) Rasch's one-parameter residual analysis; and (4) the Mantel-Haenszel procedure. Bias statistics were computed for each sample using all methods. Data were from administration of multiple-choice items from…

Estimating the Reliability of a Test Battery Composite or a Test Score Based on Weighted Item Scoring

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Feldt, Leonard S.

2004-01-01

In some settings, the validity of a battery composite or a test score is enhanced by weighting some parts or items more heavily than others in the total score. This article describes methods of estimating the total score reliability coefficient when differential weights are used with items or parts.

Increasing reliability of Gauss-Kronrod quadrature by Eratosthenes' sieve method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adam, Gh.; Adam, S.

2001-04-01

The reliability of the local error estimates returned by the Gauss-Kronrod quadrature rules can be raised up to the theoretical 100% rate of success, under error estimate sharpening, provided a number of natural validating conditions are required. The self-validating scheme of the local error estimates, which is easy to implement and adds little supplementary computing effort, strengthens considerably the correctness of the decisions within the automatic adaptive quadrature.

The Use of Invariance and Bootstrap Procedures as a Method to Establish the Reliability of Research Results.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sandler, Andrew B.

Statistical significance is misused in educational and psychological research when it is applied as a method to establish the reliability of research results. Other techniques have been developed which can be correctly utilized to establish the generalizability of findings. Methods that do provide such estimates are known as invariance or…

How Valid are Estimates of Occupational Illness?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hilaski, Harvey J.; Wang, Chao Ling

1982-01-01

Examines some of the methods of estimating occupational diseases and suggests that a consensus on the adequacy and reliability of estimates by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and others is not likely. (SK)

Can Reliability of Multiple Component Measuring Instruments Depend on Response Option Presentation Mode?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Menold, Natalja; Raykov, Tenko

2016-01-01

This article examines the possible dependency of composite reliability on presentation format of the elements of a multi-item measuring instrument. Using empirical data and a recent method for interval estimation of group differences in reliability, we demonstrate that the reliability of an instrument need not be the same when polarity of the…

SAS and SPSS macros to calculate standardized Cronbach's alpha using the upper bound of the phi coefficient for dichotomous items.

PubMed

Sun, Wei; Chou, Chih-Ping; Stacy, Alan W; Ma, Huiyan; Unger, Jennifer; Gallaher, Peggy

2007-02-01

Cronbach's a is widely used in social science research to estimate the internal consistency of reliability of a measurement scale. However, when items are not strictly parallel, the Cronbach's a coefficient provides a lower-bound estimate of true reliability, and this estimate may be further biased downward when items are dichotomous. The estimation of standardized Cronbach's a for a scale with dichotomous items can be improved by using the upper bound of coefficient phi. SAS and SPSS macros have been developed in this article to obtain standardized Cronbach's a via this method. The simulation analysis showed that Cronbach's a from upper-bound phi might be appropriate for estimating the real reliability when standardized Cronbach's a is problematic.

Large-scale-system effectiveness analysis. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Patton, A.D.; Ayoub, A.K.; Foster, J.W.

1979-11-01

Objective of the research project has been the investigation and development of methods for calculating system reliability indices which have absolute, and measurable, significance to consumers. Such indices are a necessary prerequisite to any scheme for system optimization which includes the economic consequences of consumer service interruptions. A further area of investigation has been joint consideration of generation and transmission in reliability studies. Methods for finding or estimating the probability distributions of some measures of reliability performance have been developed. The application of modern Monte Carlo simulation methods to compute reliability indices in generating systems has been studied.

Mission Reliability Estimation for Repairable Robot Teams

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Trebi-Ollennu, Ashitey; Dolan, John; Stancliff, Stephen

2010-01-01

A mission reliability estimation method has been designed to translate mission requirements into choices of robot modules in order to configure a multi-robot team to have high reliability at minimal cost. In order to build cost-effective robot teams for long-term missions, one must be able to compare alternative design paradigms in a principled way by comparing the reliability of different robot models and robot team configurations. Core modules have been created including: a probabilistic module with reliability-cost characteristics, a method for combining the characteristics of multiple modules to determine an overall reliability-cost characteristic, and a method for the generation of legitimate module combinations based on mission specifications and the selection of the best of the resulting combinations from a cost-reliability standpoint. The developed methodology can be used to predict the probability of a mission being completed, given information about the components used to build the robots, as well as information about the mission tasks. In the research for this innovation, sample robot missions were examined and compared to the performance of robot teams with different numbers of robots and different numbers of spare components. Data that a mission designer would need was factored in, such as whether it would be better to have a spare robot versus an equivalent number of spare parts, or if mission cost can be reduced while maintaining reliability using spares. This analytical model was applied to an example robot mission, examining the cost-reliability tradeoffs among different team configurations. Particularly scrutinized were teams using either redundancy (spare robots) or repairability (spare components). Using conservative estimates of the cost-reliability relationship, results show that it is possible to significantly reduce the cost of a robotic mission by using cheaper, lower-reliability components and providing spares. This suggests that the current design paradigm of building a minimal number of highly robust robots may not be the best way to design robots for extended missions.

Scale Reliability Evaluation with Heterogeneous Populations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Raykov, Tenko; Marcoulides, George A.

2015-01-01

A latent variable modeling approach for scale reliability evaluation in heterogeneous populations is discussed. The method can be used for point and interval estimation of reliability of multicomponent measuring instruments in populations representing mixtures of an unknown number of latent classes or subpopulations. The procedure is helpful also…

Validating genomic reliabilities and gains from phenotypic updates

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Reliability can be validated from the variance of the difference of earlier and later estimated breeding values as a fraction of the genetic variance. This new method avoids using squared correlations that can be biased downward by selection. Published genomic reliabilities of U.S. young bulls agree...

Estimating the Population Size of Female Sex Worker Population in Tehran, Iran: Application of Direct Capture-Recapture Method.

PubMed

Karami, Manoochehr; Khazaei, Salman; Poorolajal, Jalal; Soltanian, Alireza; Sajadipoor, Mansour

2017-08-01

There is no reliable estimate of the size of female sex workers (FSWs). This study aimed to estimate the size of FSWs in south of Tehran, Iran in 2016 using direct capture-recapture method. In the capture phase, the hangouts of FSWs were mapped as their meeting places. FSWs who agreed to participate in the study tagged with a T-shirt. The recapture phase was implemented at the same places tagging FSWs with a blue bracelet. The total estimated size of FSWs was 690 (95% CI 633, 747). About 89.43% of FSWs experienced sexual intercourse prior to age 20. The prevalence of human immunodeficiency virus infection among FSWs was 4.60%. The estimated population size of FSWs was much more than our expectation. This issue must be the focus of special attention for planning prevention strategies. However, alternative estimates require to estimating the number FSWs, reliably.

Psychometrics Matter in Health Behavior: A Long-term Reliability Generalization Study.

PubMed

Pickett, Andrew C; Valdez, Danny; Barry, Adam E

2017-09-01

Despite numerous calls for increased understanding and reporting of reliability estimates, social science research, including the field of health behavior, has been slow to respond and adopt such practices. Therefore, we offer a brief overview of reliability and common reporting errors; we then perform analyses to examine and demonstrate the variability of reliability estimates by sample and over time. Using meta-analytic reliability generalization, we examined the variability of coefficient alpha scores for a well-designed, consistent, nationwide health study, covering a span of nearly 40 years. For each year and sample, reliability varied. Furthermore, reliability was predicted by a sample characteristic that differed among age groups within each administration. We demonstrated that reliability is influenced by the methods and individuals from which a given sample is drawn. Our work echoes previous calls that psychometric properties, particularly reliability of scores, are important and must be considered and reported before drawing statistical conclusions.

Examining single-source secondary impacts estimated from brute-force, decoupled direct method, and advanced plume treatment approaches

EPA Science Inventory

In regulatory assessments, there is a need for reliable estimates of the impacts of precursor emissions from individual sources on secondary PM_2.5 (particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 microns) and ozone. Three potential methods for estimating th...

Ultrasound semi-automated measurement of fetal nuchal translucency thickness based on principal direction estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoon, Heechul; Lee, Hyuntaek; Jung, Haekyung; Lee, Mi-Young; Won, Hye-Sung

2015-03-01

The objective of the paper is to introduce a novel method for nuchal translucency (NT) boundary detection and thickness measurement, which is one of the most significant markers in the early screening of chromosomal defects, namely Down syndrome. To improve the reliability and reproducibility of NT measurements, several automated methods have been introduced. However, the performance of their methods degrades when NT borders are tilted due to varying fetal movements. Therefore, we propose a principal direction estimation based NT measurement method to provide reliable and consistent performance regardless of both fetal positions and NT directions. At first, Radon Transform and cost function are used to estimate the principal direction of NT borders. Then, on the estimated angle bin, i.e., the main direction of NT, gradient based features are employed to find initial NT lines which are beginning points of the active contour fitting method to find real NT borders. Finally, the maximum thickness is measured from distances between the upper and lower border of NT by searching along to the orthogonal lines of main NT direction. To evaluate the performance, 89 of in vivo fetal images were collected and the ground-truth database was measured by clinical experts. Quantitative results using intraclass correlation coefficients and difference analysis verify that the proposed method can improve the reliability and reproducibility in the measurement of maximum NT thickness.

Constructing Confidence Intervals for Reliability Coefficients Using Central and Noncentral Distributions.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Weber, Deborah A.

Greater understanding and use of confidence intervals is central to changes in statistical practice (G. Cumming and S. Finch, 2001). Reliability coefficients and confidence intervals for reliability coefficients can be computed using a variety of methods. Estimating confidence intervals includes both central and noncentral distribution approaches.…

Reliability and Validity of the Evidence-Based Practice Confidence (EPIC) Scale

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Salbach, Nancy M.; Jaglal, Susan B.; Williams, Jack I.

2013-01-01

Introduction: The reliability, minimal detectable change (MDC), and construct validity of the evidence-based practice confidence (EPIC) scale were evaluated among physical therapists (PTs) in clinical practice. Methods: A longitudinal mail survey was conducted. Internal consistency and test-retest reliability were estimated using Cronbach's alpha…

Validity and reliability of the minimum basic data set in estimating nosocomial acute gastroenteritis caused by rotavirus.

PubMed

Redondo-González, Olga

2015-03-01

Rotavirus is the principal cause of nosocomial acute gastroenteritis (NAGE) under 5 years of age. The objectiveis to evaluate the validity and reliability of the minimum basic dataset (MBDS) in estimating the NAGE caused by rotavirus (NAGER) and to analyze any changes during the three years that the Rotarix® and Rotateq® vaccines were used in Spain. A descriptive, retrospectivestudy was carried out in the University Hospital of Guadalajara(UHG) (Spain) between 2003-2009 using the MBDS, positive microbiological results for rotavirus (PMRs), and medical histories.Three methods of estimation were used: 1) An ICD-9-CM code 008.61 in the secondary diagnosis fields (DIAG2) of MBDS; 2) method 1 and/or PMRs with a current or recent hospitalization; and 3) the reference method or method 2 contrasted with patient medical histories. The validity of methods 1 and 2 was determined -sensitivity, specificity, predictive values and likelihood ratios (LRs)-, along with their agreement with method 3 (Kappa coefficient). In addition, the incidence rate ratio between the NAGER rate in 2007-2009 (commercialization period of both vaccines) was calculated with respect to 2003-2005 (precommercialization period). Method 1 identified 65 records with a DIAG2 of 008.61. Method 2 found 62 probable cases, and the reference method, 49 true cases. The sensitivity of the MBDS was 67 %,the positive predictive value was 51 %, and both negative LR (LR-) and reliability were moderate (LR- 0.33, Kappa coefficient 0.58). During 2007-2009, the NARGE decreased by 5 cases per 103 hospitalizations and by 9 per 104 days of hospitalization. Method 2 overestimated both the decline in incidence by 2 per 103 hospitalizations and the decreased risk per day of stay by 10 %. The MBDS found no differences between the two three-year periods, but, like method 2, showed an excellent level of diagnostic evidence (LR+ 67). The MBDS taken together with microbiological results, is more exact, safer and more reliable than the MBDS alone in estimating NAGER; and more useful in ruling out it. Nevertheless, the MBDS alone may be used to estimate and compare such disease in contexts with different prevalences.

Reconciling Streamflow Uncertainty Estimation and River Bed Morphology Dynamics. Insights from a Probabilistic Assessment of Streamflow Uncertainties Using a Reliability Diagram

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morlot, T.; Mathevet, T.; Perret, C.; Favre Pugin, A. C.

2014-12-01

Streamflow uncertainty estimation has recently received a large attention in the literature. A dynamic rating curve assessment method has been introduced (Morlot et al., 2014). This dynamic method allows to compute a rating curve for each gauging and a continuous streamflow time-series, while calculating streamflow uncertainties. Streamflow uncertainty takes into account many sources of uncertainty (water level, rating curve interpolation and extrapolation, gauging aging, etc.) and produces an estimated distribution of streamflow for each days. In order to caracterise streamflow uncertainty, a probabilistic framework has been applied on a large sample of hydrometric stations of the Division Technique Générale (DTG) of Électricité de France (EDF) hydrometric network (>250 stations) in France. A reliability diagram (Wilks, 1995) has been constructed for some stations, based on the streamflow distribution estimated for a given day and compared to a real streamflow observation estimated via a gauging. To build a reliability diagram, we computed the probability of an observed streamflow (gauging), given the streamflow distribution. Then, the reliability diagram allows to check that the distribution of probabilities of non-exceedance of the gaugings follows a uniform law (i.e., quantiles should be equipropables). Given the shape of the reliability diagram, the probabilistic calibration is caracterised (underdispersion, overdispersion, bias) (Thyer et al., 2009). In this paper, we present case studies where reliability diagrams have different statistical properties for different periods. Compared to our knowledge of river bed morphology dynamic of these hydrometric stations, we show how reliability diagram gives us invaluable information on river bed movements, like a continuous digging or backfilling of the hydraulic control due to erosion or sedimentation processes. Hence, the careful analysis of reliability diagrams allows to reconcile statistics and long-term river bed morphology processes. This knowledge improves our real-time management of hydrometric stations, given a better caracterisation of erosion/sedimentation processes and the stability of hydrometric station hydraulic control.

The reliability of the Glasgow Coma Scale: a systematic review.

PubMed

Reith, Florence C M; Van den Brande, Ruben; Synnot, Anneliese; Gruen, Russell; Maas, Andrew I R

2016-01-01

The Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) provides a structured method for assessment of the level of consciousness. Its derived sum score is applied in research and adopted in intensive care unit scoring systems. Controversy exists on the reliability of the GCS. The aim of this systematic review was to summarize evidence on the reliability of the GCS. A literature search was undertaken in MEDLINE, EMBASE and CINAHL. Observational studies that assessed the reliability of the GCS, expressed by a statistical measure, were included. Methodological quality was evaluated with the consensus-based standards for the selection of health measurement instruments checklist and its influence on results considered. Reliability estimates were synthesized narratively. We identified 52 relevant studies that showed significant heterogeneity in the type of reliability estimates used, patients studied, setting and characteristics of observers. Methodological quality was good (n = 7), fair (n = 18) or poor (n = 27). In good quality studies, kappa values were ≥0.6 in 85%, and all intraclass correlation coefficients indicated excellent reliability. Poor quality studies showed lower reliability estimates. Reliability for the GCS components was higher than for the sum score. Factors that may influence reliability include education and training, the level of consciousness and type of stimuli used. Only 13% of studies were of good quality and inconsistency in reported reliability estimates was found. Although the reliability was adequate in good quality studies, further improvement is desirable. From a methodological perspective, the quality of reliability studies needs to be improved. From a clinical perspective, a renewed focus on training/education and standardization of assessment is required.

Reliability studies of diagnostic methods in Indian traditional Ayurveda medicine: An overview

PubMed Central

Kurande, Vrinda Hitendra; Waagepetersen, Rasmus; Toft, Egon; Prasad, Ramjee

2013-01-01

Recently, a need to develop supportive new scientific evidence for contemporary Ayurveda has emerged. One of the research objectives is an assessment of the reliability of diagnoses and treatment. Reliability is a quantitative measure of consistency. It is a crucial issue in classification (such as prakriti classification), method development (pulse diagnosis), quality assurance for diagnosis and treatment and in the conduct of clinical studies. Several reliability studies are conducted in western medicine. The investigation of the reliability of traditional Chinese, Japanese and Sasang medicine diagnoses is in the formative stage. However, reliability studies in Ayurveda are in the preliminary stage. In this paper, examples are provided to illustrate relevant concepts of reliability studies of diagnostic methods and their implication in practice, education, and training. An introduction to reliability estimates and different study designs and statistical analysis is given for future studies in Ayurveda. PMID:23930037

A novel Gaussian process regression model for state-of-health estimation of lithium-ion battery using charging curve

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Duo; Zhang, Xu; Pan, Rui; Wang, Yujie; Chen, Zonghai

2018-04-01

The state-of-health (SOH) estimation is always a crucial issue for lithium-ion batteries. In order to provide an accurate and reliable SOH estimation, a novel Gaussian process regression (GPR) model based on charging curve is proposed in this paper. Different from other researches where SOH is commonly estimated by cycle life, in this work four specific parameters extracted from charging curves are used as inputs of the GPR model instead of cycle numbers. These parameters can reflect the battery aging phenomenon from different angles. The grey relational analysis method is applied to analyze the relational grade between selected features and SOH. On the other hand, some adjustments are made in the proposed GPR model. Covariance function design and the similarity measurement of input variables are modified so as to improve the SOH estimate accuracy and adapt to the case of multidimensional input. Several aging data from NASA data repository are used for demonstrating the estimation effect by the proposed method. Results show that the proposed method has high SOH estimation accuracy. Besides, a battery with dynamic discharging profile is used to verify the robustness and reliability of this method.

APPLICATION OF TRAVEL TIME RELIABILITY FOR PERFORMANCE ORIENTED OPERATIONAL PLANNING OF EXPRESSWAYS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mehran, Babak; Nakamura, Hideki

Evaluation of impacts of congestion improvement scheme s on travel time reliability is very significant for road authorities since travel time reliability repr esents operational performance of expressway segments. In this paper, a methodology is presented to estimate travel tim e reliability prior to implementation of congestion relief schemes based on travel time variation modeling as a function of demand, capacity, weather conditions and road accident s. For subject expressway segmen ts, traffic conditions are modeled over a whole year considering demand and capacity as random variables. Patterns of demand and capacity are generated for each five minute interval by appl ying Monte-Carlo simulation technique, and accidents are randomly generated based on a model that links acci dent rate to traffic conditions. A whole year analysis is performed by comparing de mand and available capacity for each scenario and queue length is estimated through shockwave analysis for each time in terval. Travel times are estimated from refined speed-flow relationships developed for intercity expressways and buffer time index is estimated consequently as a measure of travel time reliability. For validation, estimated reliability indices are compared with measured values from empirical data, and it is shown that the proposed method is suitable for operational evaluation and planning purposes.

Estimation of Environment-Related Properties of Chemicals for Design of Sustainable Processes: Development of Group-Contribution+ (GC+) Property Models and Uncertainty Analysis

EPA Science Inventory

The aim of this work is to develop group-contribution+ (GC+) method (combined group-contribution (GC) method and atom connectivity index (CI) method) based property models to provide reliable estimations of environment-related properties of organic chemicals together with uncert...

Reliability estimation of a N- M-cold-standby redundancy system in a multicomponent stress-strength model with generalized half-logistic distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Yiming; Shi, Yimin; Bai, Xuchao; Zhan, Pei

2018-01-01

In this paper, we study the estimation for the reliability of a multicomponent system, named N- M-cold-standby redundancy system, based on progressive Type-II censoring sample. In the system, there are N subsystems consisting of M statistically independent distributed strength components, and only one of these subsystems works under the impact of stresses at a time and the others remain as standbys. Whenever the working subsystem fails, one from the standbys takes its place. The system fails when the entire subsystems fail. It is supposed that the underlying distributions of random strength and stress both belong to the generalized half-logistic distribution with different shape parameter. The reliability of the system is estimated by using both classical and Bayesian statistical inference. Uniformly minimum variance unbiased estimator and maximum likelihood estimator for the reliability of the system are derived. Under squared error loss function, the exact expression of the Bayes estimator for the reliability of the system is developed by using the Gauss hypergeometric function. The asymptotic confidence interval and corresponding coverage probabilities are derived based on both the Fisher and the observed information matrices. The approximate highest probability density credible interval is constructed by using Monte Carlo method. Monte Carlo simulations are performed to compare the performances of the proposed reliability estimators. A real data set is also analyzed for an illustration of the findings.

Improved Estimation of Cardiac Function Parameters Using a Combination of Independent Automated Segmentation Results in Cardiovascular Magnetic Resonance Imaging.

PubMed

Lebenberg, Jessica; Lalande, Alain; Clarysse, Patrick; Buvat, Irene; Casta, Christopher; Cochet, Alexandre; Constantinidès, Constantin; Cousty, Jean; de Cesare, Alain; Jehan-Besson, Stephanie; Lefort, Muriel; Najman, Laurent; Roullot, Elodie; Sarry, Laurent; Tilmant, Christophe; Frouin, Frederique; Garreau, Mireille

2015-01-01

This work aimed at combining different segmentation approaches to produce a robust and accurate segmentation result. Three to five segmentation results of the left ventricle were combined using the STAPLE algorithm and the reliability of the resulting segmentation was evaluated in comparison with the result of each individual segmentation method. This comparison was performed using a supervised approach based on a reference method. Then, we used an unsupervised statistical evaluation, the extended Regression Without Truth (eRWT) that ranks different methods according to their accuracy in estimating a specific biomarker in a population. The segmentation accuracy was evaluated by estimating six cardiac function parameters resulting from the left ventricle contour delineation using a public cardiac cine MRI database. Eight different segmentation methods, including three expert delineations and five automated methods, were considered, and sixteen combinations of the automated methods using STAPLE were investigated. The supervised and unsupervised evaluations demonstrated that in most cases, STAPLE results provided better estimates than individual automated segmentation methods. Overall, combining different automated segmentation methods improved the reliability of the segmentation result compared to that obtained using an individual method and could achieve the accuracy of an expert.

Improved Estimation of Cardiac Function Parameters Using a Combination of Independent Automated Segmentation Results in Cardiovascular Magnetic Resonance Imaging

PubMed Central

Lebenberg, Jessica; Lalande, Alain; Clarysse, Patrick; Buvat, Irene; Casta, Christopher; Cochet, Alexandre; Constantinidès, Constantin; Cousty, Jean; de Cesare, Alain; Jehan-Besson, Stephanie; Lefort, Muriel; Najman, Laurent; Roullot, Elodie; Sarry, Laurent; Tilmant, Christophe

2015-01-01

This work aimed at combining different segmentation approaches to produce a robust and accurate segmentation result. Three to five segmentation results of the left ventricle were combined using the STAPLE algorithm and the reliability of the resulting segmentation was evaluated in comparison with the result of each individual segmentation method. This comparison was performed using a supervised approach based on a reference method. Then, we used an unsupervised statistical evaluation, the extended Regression Without Truth (eRWT) that ranks different methods according to their accuracy in estimating a specific biomarker in a population. The segmentation accuracy was evaluated by estimating six cardiac function parameters resulting from the left ventricle contour delineation using a public cardiac cine MRI database. Eight different segmentation methods, including three expert delineations and five automated methods, were considered, and sixteen combinations of the automated methods using STAPLE were investigated. The supervised and unsupervised evaluations demonstrated that in most cases, STAPLE results provided better estimates than individual automated segmentation methods. Overall, combining different automated segmentation methods improved the reliability of the segmentation result compared to that obtained using an individual method and could achieve the accuracy of an expert. PMID:26287691

A proposed method to investigate reliability throughout a questionnaire

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Questionnaires are used extensively in medical and health care research and depend on validity and reliability. However, participants may differ in interest and awareness throughout long questionnaires, which can affect reliability of their answers. A method is proposed for "screening" of systematic change in random error, which could assess changed reliability of answers. Methods A simulation study was conducted to explore whether systematic change in reliability, expressed as changed random error, could be assessed using unsupervised classification of subjects by cluster analysis (CA) and estimation of intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC). The method was also applied on a clinical dataset from 753 cardiac patients using the Jalowiec Coping Scale. Results The simulation study showed a relationship between the systematic change in random error throughout a questionnaire and the slope between the estimated ICC for subjects classified by CA and successive items in a questionnaire. This slope was proposed as an awareness measure - to assessing if respondents provide only a random answer or one based on a substantial cognitive effort. Scales from different factor structures of Jalowiec Coping Scale had different effect on this awareness measure. Conclusions Even though assumptions in the simulation study might be limited compared to real datasets, the approach is promising for assessing systematic change in reliability throughout long questionnaires. Results from a clinical dataset indicated that the awareness measure differed between scales. PMID:21974842

Validity and Reliability of Assessing Body Composition Using a Mobile Application.

PubMed

Macdonald, Elizabeth Z; Vehrs, Pat R; Fellingham, Gilbert W; Eggett, Dennis; George, James D; Hager, Ronald

2017-12-01

The purpose of this study was to determine the validity and reliability of the LeanScreen (LS) mobile application that estimates percent body fat (%BF) using estimates of circumferences from photographs. The %BF of 148 weight-stable adults was estimated once using dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA). Each of two administrators assessed the %BF of each subject twice using the LS app and manually measured circumferences. A mixed-model ANOVA and Bland-Altman analyses were used to compare the estimates of %BF obtained from each method. Interrater and intrarater reliabilities values were determined using multiple measurements taken by each of the two administrators. The LS app and manually measured circumferences significantly underestimated (P < 0.05) the %BF determined using DXA by an average of -3.26 and -4.82 %BF, respectively. The LS app (6.99 %BF) and manually measured circumferences (6.76 %BF) had large limits of agreement. All interrater and intrarater reliability coefficients of estimates of %BF using the LS app and manually measured circumferences exceeded 0.99. The estimates of %BF from manually measured circumferences and the LS app were highly reliable. However, these field measures are not currently recommended for the assessment of body composition because of significant bias and large limits of agreements.

Calcaneotalar ratio: a new concept in the estimation of the length of the calcaneus.

PubMed

David, Vikram; Stephens, Terry J; Kindl, Radek; Ang, Andy; Tay, Wei-Han; Asaid, Rafik; McCullough, Keith

2015-01-01

Maintaining the calcaneal length after calcaneal fractures is vital to restoring the normal biomechanics of the foot, because it acts as an important lever arm to the plantarflexors of the foot. However, estimation of the length of the calcaneus to be reconstructed in comminuted calcaneal fractures can be difficult. We propose a new method to reliably estimate the calcaneal length radiographically by defining the calcaneotalar length ratio. A total of 100 ankle radiographs with no fracture in the calcaneus or talus taken in skeletally mature patients were reviewed by 6 observers. The anteroposterior lengths of the calcaneus and talus were measured, and the calcaneotalar length ratio was determined. The ratio was then used to estimate the length of the calcaneus. Interobserver reliability was determined using Cronbach's α coefficient and Pearson's correlation coefficient. The mean length of the calcaneus was 75 ± 0.6 mm, and the mean length of the talus was 59 ± 0.5 mm. The calcaneotalar ratio was 1.3. Using this ratio and multiplying it by the talar length, the mean average estimated length of the calcaneus was within 0.7 mm of the known calcaneal length. Cronbach's α coefficient and Pearson's correlation coefficient showed excellent interobserver reliability. The proposed calcaneotalar ratio is a new and reliable method to radiographically estimate the normal length of the calcaneus when reconstructing the calcaneus. Copyright © 2015 American College of Foot and Ankle Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Estimating glomerular filtration rate in oncology patients receiving Cisplatin chemotherapy: Predicted creatinine clearance against 99mTc-DTPA methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khaidah Syed Sahab, Sharifah; Manap, Mahayuddin; Hamzah, Fadzilah

2017-05-01

The therapeutic potential of cisplatin as the best anticancer treatment for solid tumor is limited by its potential nephrotoxicity. This study analyses the incidence of cisplatin induced nephrotoxicity in oncology patients through GFR estimation using 99mTc-DTPA plasma sampling (reference method) and to compare with predicted creatinine clearance and Tc-99m renal scintigraphy. A prospective study of 33 oncology patients referred for GFR estimation in Penang Hospital. The incidence of cisplatin induced nephrotoxicity was analysed via radionuclide and creatinine based method. Of 33 samples, only 21 selected for the study. The dose of cisplatin given was 75 mg/m2 for each cycle. The mean difference of GFR pre and post chemotherapy (PSC 2) was 13.38 (-4.60, 31.36) ml/min/1.73m2 (p 0.136). Of 21 patients, 3 developed severe nephrotoxicity (GFR < 50ml/min/1.73 m2) contributing 14.3% of incidence. Bland-Altman plot showed only PSC 1 is in agreement with PSC 2 technique. Intraclass Correlation Coefficients (ICC) also showed that PSC 1 has high degree of reliability in comparison to PSC 2 (p < 0.001). The other methods do not show reliability and agreement in comparison to PSC 2 (p < 0.05). 3 of 21 patients (14.3%) developed severe nephrotoxicity post cisplatin chemotherapy. This percentage is much less than the reported 20 - 25% of cases from other studies, probably due to small sample size and biased study population due to strict exclusion criteria. Radionuclide method for evaluating GFR is the most sensitive method for the detection of cisplatin induced nephrotoxicity by showing 3 of 21 patients developing severe nephrotoxicity. PSC 1 was found to be a reliable substitute of PSC 2. The other methods are not reliable for detection of early nephrotoxicity. We will recommend the use of single plasma sampling method (PSC 1) for GFR estimation in monitoring post cisplatin chemotherapy patients.

A review of surface energy balance models for estimating actual evapotranspiration with remote sensing at high spatiotemporal resolution over large extents

Treesearch

Ryan R. McShane; Katelyn P. Driscoll; Roy Sando

2017-01-01

Many approaches have been developed for measuring or estimating actual evapotranspiration (ETa), and research over many years has led to the development of remote sensing methods that are reliably reproducible and effective in estimating ETa. Several remote sensing methods can be used to estimate ETa at the high spatial resolution of agricultural fields and the large...

Assessing the Reliability of Curriculum-Based Measurement: An Application of Latent Growth Modeling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yeo, Seungsoo; Kim, Dong-Il; Branum-Martin, Lee; Wayman, Miya Miura; Espin, Christine A.

2012-01-01

The purpose of this study was to demonstrate the use of Latent Growth Modeling (LGM) as a method for estimating reliability of Curriculum-Based Measurement (CBM) progress-monitoring data. The LGM approach permits the error associated with each measure to differ at each time point, thus providing an alternative method for examining of the…

How Many Sleep Diary Entries Are Needed to Reliably Estimate Adolescent Sleep?

PubMed Central

Arora, Teresa; Gradisar, Michael; Taheri, Shahrad; Carskadon, Mary A.

2017-01-01

Abstract Study Objectives: To investigate (1) how many nights of sleep diary entries are required for reliable estimates of five sleep-related outcomes (bedtime, wake time, sleep onset latency [SOL], sleep duration, and wake after sleep onset [WASO]) and (2) the test–retest reliability of sleep diary estimates of school night sleep across 12 weeks. Methods: Data were drawn from four adolescent samples (Australia [n = 385], Qatar [n = 245], United Kingdom [n = 770], and United States [n = 366]), who provided 1766 eligible sleep diary weeks for reliability analyses. We performed reliability analyses for each cohort using complete data (7 days), one to five school nights, and one to two weekend nights. We also performed test–retest reliability analyses on 12-week sleep diary data available from a subgroup of 55 US adolescents. Results: Intraclass correlation coefficients for bedtime, SOL, and sleep duration indicated good-to-excellent reliability from five weekday nights of sleep diary entries across all adolescent cohorts. Four school nights was sufficient for wake times in the Australian and UK samples, but not the US or Qatari samples. Only Australian adolescents showed good reliability for two weekend nights of bedtime reports; estimates of SOL were adequate for UK adolescents based on two weekend nights. WASO was not reliably estimated using 1 week of sleep diaries. We observed excellent test–rest reliability across 12 weeks of sleep diary data in a subsample of US adolescents. Conclusion: We recommend at least five weekday nights of sleep dairy entries to be made when studying adolescent bedtimes, SOL, and sleep duration. Adolescent sleep patterns were stable across 12 consecutive school weeks. PMID:28199718

A proposed method to investigate reliability throughout a questionnaire.

PubMed

Wentzel-Larsen, Tore; Norekvål, Tone M; Ulvik, Bjørg; Nygård, Ottar; Pripp, Are H

2011-10-05

Questionnaires are used extensively in medical and health care research and depend on validity and reliability. However, participants may differ in interest and awareness throughout long questionnaires, which can affect reliability of their answers. A method is proposed for "screening" of systematic change in random error, which could assess changed reliability of answers. A simulation study was conducted to explore whether systematic change in reliability, expressed as changed random error, could be assessed using unsupervised classification of subjects by cluster analysis (CA) and estimation of intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC). The method was also applied on a clinical dataset from 753 cardiac patients using the Jalowiec Coping Scale. The simulation study showed a relationship between the systematic change in random error throughout a questionnaire and the slope between the estimated ICC for subjects classified by CA and successive items in a questionnaire. This slope was proposed as an awareness measure--to assessing if respondents provide only a random answer or one based on a substantial cognitive effort. Scales from different factor structures of Jalowiec Coping Scale had different effect on this awareness measure. Even though assumptions in the simulation study might be limited compared to real datasets, the approach is promising for assessing systematic change in reliability throughout long questionnaires. Results from a clinical dataset indicated that the awareness measure differed between scales.

Reliability and validity of a brief method to assess nociceptive flexion reflex (NFR) threshold.

PubMed

Rhudy, Jamie L; France, Christopher R

2011-07-01

The nociceptive flexion reflex (NFR) is a physiological tool to study spinal nociception. However, NFR assessment can take several minutes and expose participants to repeated suprathreshold stimulations. The 4 studies reported here assessed the reliability and validity of a brief method to assess NFR threshold that uses a single ascending series of stimulations (Peak 1 NFR), by comparing it to a well-validated method that uses 3 ascending/descending staircases of stimulations (Staircase NFR). Correlations between the NFR definitions were high, were on par with test-retest correlations of Staircase NFR, and were not affected by participant sex or chronic pain status. Results also indicated the test-retest reliabilities for the 2 definitions were similar. Using larger stimulus increments (4 mAs) to assess Peak 1 NFR tended to result in higher NFR threshold estimates than using the Staircase NFR definition, whereas smaller stimulus increments (2 mAs) tended to result in lower NFR threshold estimates than the Staircase NFR definition. Neither NFR definition was correlated with anxiety, pain catastrophizing, or anxiety sensitivity. In sum, a single ascending series of electrical stimulations results in a reliable and valid estimate of NFR threshold. However, caution may be warranted when comparing NFR thresholds across studies that differ in the ascending stimulus increments. This brief method to assess NFR threshold is reliable and valid; therefore, it should be useful to clinical pain researchers interested in quickly assessing inter- and intra-individual differences in spinal nociceptive processes. Copyright © 2011 American Pain Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Reliability Estimation in Modeling Watershed Runoff With Uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melching, Charles S.; Yen, Ben Chie; Wenzel, Harry G., Jr.

1990-10-01

The reliability of simulation results produced by watershed runoff models is a function of uncertainties in nature, data, model parameters, and model structure. A framework is presented here for using a reliability analysis method (such as first-order second-moment techniques or Monte Carlo simulation) to evaluate the combined effect of the uncertainties on the reliability of output hydrographs from hydrologic models. For a given event the prediction reliability can be expressed in terms of the probability distribution of the estimated hydrologic variable. The peak discharge probability for a watershed in Illinois using the HEC-1 watershed model is given as an example. The study of the reliability of predictions from watershed models provides useful information on the stochastic nature of output from deterministic models subject to uncertainties and identifies the relative contribution of the various uncertainties to unreliability of model predictions.

Reliability of the Fox-walk test in patients with rheumatoid arthritis.

PubMed

Verberkt, Cornelia Antonia; Fridén, Cecilia; Grooten, Wilhelmus Johannes Andreas; Opava, Christina H

2012-01-01

The Fox-walk test is a new method used to estimate aerobic capacity outside a clinical environment, which may be useful in the implementation of daily health-enhancing physical activity. The aim of our study was to investigate the reliability of the test in people with rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Fifteen participants performed the Fox-walk test three times with weekly intervals. The intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC), the standard error of measurement (SEM) and the smallest detectable change (SDC) were used to estimate the reliability. General health perception, lower limb pain and fatigue were measured to determine their potential influence on the reliability. There were no systematic differences between the three test occasions (p = 0.190) and the reliability was almost perfect (ICC = 0.982). None of the covariates influenced the reliability. The SEM was 0.999 ml/kg/min or 3.4% and the SDC was 2.769 ml/kg/min or 9.4%. These findings demonstrate that the Fox-walk test is reliable in people with RA and enables differentiation between people with RA and monitoring progress. The validity of the test among people with RA is still to be determined. • The Fox-walk test is a new method to estimate aerobic capacity and could be performed walking or running. • The test is self administered without expensive equipment and is available in 150 public places in Sweden and several other European countries. • The Fox-walk test is a reliable test for use among people with rheumatoid arthritis monitoring the progress of their physical activity.

Comparison of MRI-based estimates of articular cartilage contact area in the tibiofemoral joint.

PubMed

Henderson, Christopher E; Higginson, Jill S; Barrance, Peter J

2011-01-01

Knee osteoarthritis (OA) detrimentally impacts the lives of millions of older Americans through pain and decreased functional ability. Unfortunately, the pathomechanics and associated deviations from joint homeostasis that OA patients experience are not well understood. Alterations in mechanical stress in the knee joint may play an essential role in OA; however, existing literature in this area is limited. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the ability of an existing magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-based modeling method to estimate articular cartilage contact area in vivo. Imaging data of both knees were collected on a single subject with no history of knee pathology at three knee flexion angles. Intra-observer reliability and sensitivity studies were also performed to determine the role of operator-influenced elements of the data processing on the results. The method's articular cartilage contact area estimates were compared with existing contact area estimates in the literature. The method demonstrated an intra-observer reliability of 0.95 when assessed using Pearson's correlation coefficient and was found to be most sensitive to changes in the cartilage tracings on the peripheries of the compartment. The articular cartilage contact area estimates at full extension were similar to those reported in the literature. The relationships between tibiofemoral articular cartilage contact area and knee flexion were also qualitatively and quantitatively similar to those previously reported. The MRI-based knee modeling method was found to have high intra-observer reliability, sensitivity to peripheral articular cartilage tracings, and agreeability with previous investigations when using data from a single healthy adult. Future studies will implement this modeling method to investigate the role that mechanical stress may play in progression of knee OA through estimation of articular cartilage contact area.

Meta-analysis in evidence-based healthcare: a paradigm shift away from random effects is overdue.

PubMed

Doi, Suhail A R; Furuya-Kanamori, Luis; Thalib, Lukman; Barendregt, Jan J

2017-12-01

Each year up to 20 000 systematic reviews and meta-analyses are published whose results influence healthcare decisions, thus making the robustness and reliability of meta-analytic methods one of the world's top clinical and public health priorities. The evidence synthesis makes use of either fixed-effect or random-effects statistical methods. The fixed-effect method has largely been replaced by the random-effects method as heterogeneity of study effects led to poor error estimation. However, despite the widespread use and acceptance of the random-effects method to correct this, it too remains unsatisfactory and continues to suffer from defective error estimation, posing a serious threat to decision-making in evidence-based clinical and public health practice. We discuss here the problem with the random-effects approach and demonstrate that there exist better estimators under the fixed-effect model framework that can achieve optimal error estimation. We argue for an urgent return to the earlier framework with updates that address these problems and conclude that doing so can markedly improve the reliability of meta-analytical findings and thus decision-making in healthcare.

Maximum Entropy Approach in Dynamic Contrast-Enhanced Magnetic Resonance Imaging.

PubMed

Farsani, Zahra Amini; Schmid, Volker J

2017-01-01

In the estimation of physiological kinetic parameters from Dynamic Contrast-Enhanced Magnetic Resonance Imaging (DCE-MRI) data, the determination of the arterial input function (AIF) plays a key role. This paper proposes a Bayesian method to estimate the physiological parameters of DCE-MRI along with the AIF in situations, where no measurement of the AIF is available. In the proposed algorithm, the maximum entropy method (MEM) is combined with the maximum a posterior approach (MAP). To this end, MEM is used to specify a prior probability distribution of the unknown AIF. The ability of this method to estimate the AIF is validated using the Kullback-Leibler divergence. Subsequently, the kinetic parameters can be estimated with MAP. The proposed algorithm is evaluated with a data set from a breast cancer MRI study. The application shows that the AIF can reliably be determined from the DCE-MRI data using MEM. Kinetic parameters can be estimated subsequently. The maximum entropy method is a powerful tool to reconstructing images from many types of data. This method is useful for generating the probability distribution based on given information. The proposed method gives an alternative way to assess the input function from the existing data. The proposed method allows a good fit of the data and therefore a better estimation of the kinetic parameters. In the end, this allows for a more reliable use of DCE-MRI. Schattauer GmbH.

Examining the reliability of ADAS-Cog change scores.

PubMed

Grochowalski, Joseph H; Liu, Ying; Siedlecki, Karen L

2016-09-01

The purpose of this study was to estimate and examine ways to improve the reliability of change scores on the Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale, Cognitive Subtest (ADAS-Cog). The sample, provided by the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative, included individuals with Alzheimer's disease (AD) (n = 153) and individuals with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) (n = 352). All participants were administered the ADAS-Cog at baseline and 1 year, and change scores were calculated as the difference in scores over the 1-year period. Three types of change score reliabilities were estimated using multivariate generalizability. Two methods to increase change score reliability were evaluated: reweighting the subtests of the scale and adding more subtests. Reliability of ADAS-Cog change scores over 1 year was low for both the AD sample (ranging from .53 to .64) and the MCI sample (.39 to .61). Reweighting the change scores from the AD sample improved reliability (.68 to .76), but lengthening provided no useful improvement for either sample. The MCI change scores had low reliability, even with reweighting and adding additional subtests. The ADAS-Cog scores had low reliability for measuring change. Researchers using the ADAS-Cog should estimate and report reliability for their use of the change scores. The ADAS-Cog change scores are not recommended for assessment of meaningful clinical change.

Structural reliability analysis under evidence theory using the active learning kriging model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Xufeng; Liu, Yongshou; Ma, Panke

2017-11-01

Structural reliability analysis under evidence theory is investigated. It is rigorously proved that a surrogate model providing only correct sign prediction of the performance function can meet the accuracy requirement of evidence-theory-based reliability analysis. Accordingly, a method based on the active learning kriging model which only correctly predicts the sign of the performance function is proposed. Interval Monte Carlo simulation and a modified optimization method based on Karush-Kuhn-Tucker conditions are introduced to make the method more efficient in estimating the bounds of failure probability based on the kriging model. Four examples are investigated to demonstrate the efficiency and accuracy of the proposed method.

Validity and reliability of central blood pressure estimated by upper arm oscillometric cuff pressure.

PubMed

Climie, Rachel E D; Schultz, Martin G; Nikolic, Sonja B; Ahuja, Kiran D K; Fell, James W; Sharman, James E

2012-04-01

Noninvasive central blood pressure (BP) independently predicts mortality, but current methods are operator-dependent, requiring skill to obtain quality recordings. The aims of this study were first, to determine the validity of an automatic, upper arm oscillometric cuff method for estimating central BP (O(CBP)) by comparison with the noninvasive reference standard of radial tonometry (T(CBP)). Second, we determined the intratest and intertest reliability of O(CBP). To assess validity, central BP was estimated by O(CBP) (Pulsecor R6.5B monitor) and compared with T(CBP) (SphygmoCor) in 47 participants free from cardiovascular disease (aged 57 ± 9 years) in supine, seated, and standing positions. Brachial mean arterial pressure (MAP) and diastolic BP (DBP) from the O(CBP) device were used to calibrate in both devices. Duplicate measures were recorded in each position on the same day to assess intratest reliability, and participants returned within 10 ± 7 days for repeat measurements to assess intertest reliability. There was a strong intraclass correlation (ICC = 0.987, P < 0.001) and small mean difference (1.2 ± 2.2 mm Hg) for central systolic BP (SBP) determined by O(CBP) compared with T(CBP). Ninety-six percent of all comparisons (n = 495 acceptable recordings) were within 5 mm Hg. With respect to reliability, there were strong correlations but higher limits of agreement for the intratest (ICC = 0.975, P < 0.001, mean difference 0.6 ± 4.5 mm Hg) and intertest (ICC = 0.895, P < 0.001, mean difference 4.3 ± 8.0 mm Hg) comparisons. Estimation of central SBP using cuff oscillometry is comparable to radial tonometry and has good reproducibility. As a noninvasive, relatively operator-independent method, O(CBP) may be as useful as T(CBP) for estimating central BP in clinical practice.

Improved estimation of subject-level functional connectivity using full and partial correlation with empirical Bayes shrinkage.

PubMed

Mejia, Amanda F; Nebel, Mary Beth; Barber, Anita D; Choe, Ann S; Pekar, James J; Caffo, Brian S; Lindquist, Martin A

2018-05-15

Reliability of subject-level resting-state functional connectivity (FC) is determined in part by the statistical techniques employed in its estimation. Methods that pool information across subjects to inform estimation of subject-level effects (e.g., Bayesian approaches) have been shown to enhance reliability of subject-level FC. However, fully Bayesian approaches are computationally demanding, while empirical Bayesian approaches typically rely on using repeated measures to estimate the variance components in the model. Here, we avoid the need for repeated measures by proposing a novel measurement error model for FC describing the different sources of variance and error, which we use to perform empirical Bayes shrinkage of subject-level FC towards the group average. In addition, since the traditional intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC) is inappropriate for biased estimates, we propose a new reliability measure denoted the mean squared error intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC MSE ) to properly assess the reliability of the resulting (biased) estimates. We apply the proposed techniques to test-retest resting-state fMRI data on 461 subjects from the Human Connectome Project to estimate connectivity between 100 regions identified through independent components analysis (ICA). We consider both correlation and partial correlation as the measure of FC and assess the benefit of shrinkage for each measure, as well as the effects of scan duration. We find that shrinkage estimates of subject-level FC exhibit substantially greater reliability than traditional estimates across various scan durations, even for the most reliable connections and regardless of connectivity measure. Additionally, we find partial correlation reliability to be highly sensitive to the choice of penalty term, and to be generally worse than that of full correlations except for certain connections and a narrow range of penalty values. This suggests that the penalty needs to be chosen carefully when using partial correlations. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Predictors of validity and reliability of a physical activity record in adolescents

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Poor to moderate validity of self-reported physical activity instruments is commonly observed in young people in low- and middle-income countries. However, the reasons for such low validity have not been examined in detail. We tested the validity of a self-administered daily physical activity record in adolescents and assessed if personal characteristics or the convenience level of reporting physical activity modified the validity estimates. Methods The study comprised a total of 302 adolescents from an urban and rural area in Ecuador. Validity was evaluated by comparing the record with accelerometer recordings for seven consecutive days. Test-retest reliability was examined by comparing registrations from two records administered three weeks apart. Time spent on sedentary (SED), low (LPA), moderate (MPA) and vigorous (VPA) intensity physical activity was estimated. Bland Altman plots were used to evaluate measurement agreement. We assessed if age, sex, urban or rural setting, anthropometry and convenience of completing the record explained differences in validity estimates using a linear mixed model. Results Although the record provided higher estimates for SED and VPA and lower estimates for LPA and MPA compared to the accelerometer, it showed an overall fair measurement agreement for validity. There was modest reliability for assessing physical activity in each intensity level. Validity was associated with adolescents’ personal characteristics: sex (SED: P = 0.007; LPA: P = 0.001; VPA: P = 0.009) and setting (LPA: P = 0.000; MPA: P = 0.047). Reliability was associated with the convenience of completing the physical activity record for LPA (low convenience: P = 0.014; high convenience: P = 0.045). Conclusions The physical activity record provided acceptable estimates for reliability and validity on a group level. Sex and setting were associated with validity estimates, whereas convenience to fill out the record was associated with better reliability estimates for LPA. This tendency of improved reliability estimates for adolescents reporting higher convenience merits further consideration. PMID:24289296

Psychometric instrumentation: reliability and validity of instruments used for clinical practice, evidence-based practice projects and research studies.

PubMed

Mayo, Ann M

2015-01-01

It is important for CNSs and other APNs to consider the reliability and validity of instruments chosen for clinical practice, evidence-based practice projects, or research studies. Psychometric testing uses specific research methods to evaluate the amount of error associated with any particular instrument. Reliability estimates explain more about how well the instrument is designed, whereas validity estimates explain more about scores that are produced by the instrument. An instrument may be architecturally sound overall (reliable), but the same instrument may not be valid. For example, if a specific group does not understand certain well-constructed items, then the instrument does not produce valid scores when used with that group. Many instrument developers may conduct reliability testing only once, yet continue validity testing in different populations over many years. All CNSs should be advocating for the use of reliable instruments that produce valid results. Clinical nurse specialists may find themselves in situations where reliability and validity estimates for some instruments that are being utilized are unknown. In such cases, CNSs should engage key stakeholders to sponsor nursing researchers to pursue this most important work.

Resting-state test-retest reliability of a priori defined canonical networks over different preprocessing steps.

PubMed

Varikuti, Deepthi P; Hoffstaedter, Felix; Genon, Sarah; Schwender, Holger; Reid, Andrew T; Eickhoff, Simon B

2017-04-01

Resting-state functional connectivity analysis has become a widely used method for the investigation of human brain connectivity and pathology. The measurement of neuronal activity by functional MRI, however, is impeded by various nuisance signals that reduce the stability of functional connectivity. Several methods exist to address this predicament, but little consensus has yet been reached on the most appropriate approach. Given the crucial importance of reliability for the development of clinical applications, we here investigated the effect of various confound removal approaches on the test-retest reliability of functional-connectivity estimates in two previously defined functional brain networks. Our results showed that gray matter masking improved the reliability of connectivity estimates, whereas denoising based on principal components analysis reduced it. We additionally observed that refraining from using any correction for global signals provided the best test-retest reliability, but failed to reproduce anti-correlations between what have been previously described as antagonistic networks. This suggests that improved reliability can come at the expense of potentially poorer biological validity. Consistent with this, we observed that reliability was proportional to the retained variance, which presumably included structured noise, such as reliable nuisance signals (for instance, noise induced by cardiac processes). We conclude that compromises are necessary between maximizing test-retest reliability and removing variance that may be attributable to non-neuronal sources.

Resting-state test-retest reliability of a priori defined canonical networks over different preprocessing steps

PubMed Central

Varikuti, Deepthi P.; Hoffstaedter, Felix; Genon, Sarah; Schwender, Holger; Reid, Andrew T.; Eickhoff, Simon B.

2016-01-01

Resting-state functional connectivity analysis has become a widely used method for the investigation of human brain connectivity and pathology. The measurement of neuronal activity by functional MRI, however, is impeded by various nuisance signals that reduce the stability of functional connectivity. Several methods exist to address this predicament, but little consensus has yet been reached on the most appropriate approach. Given the crucial importance of reliability for the development of clinical applications, we here investigated the effect of various confound removal approaches on the test-retest reliability of functional-connectivity estimates in two previously defined functional brain networks. Our results showed that grey matter masking improved the reliability of connectivity estimates, whereas de-noising based on principal components analysis reduced it. We additionally observed that refraining from using any correction for global signals provided the best test-retest reliability, but failed to reproduce anti-correlations between what have been previously described as antagonistic networks. This suggests that improved reliability can come at the expense of potentially poorer biological validity. Consistent with this, we observed that reliability was proportional to the retained variance, which presumably included structured noise, such as reliable nuisance signals (for instance, noise induced by cardiac processes). We conclude that compromises are necessary between maximizing test-retest reliability and removing variance that may be attributable to non-neuronal sources. PMID:27550015

Development and validation of a self-administered questionnaire to estimate the distance and mode of children's travel to school in urban India.

PubMed

Tetali, Shailaja; Edwards, Phil; Murthy, G V S; Roberts, I

2015-10-28

Although some 300 million Indian children travel to school every day, little is known about how they get there. This information is important for transport planners and public health authorities. This paper presents the development of a self-administered questionnaire and examines its reliability and validity in estimating distance and mode of travel to school in a low resource urban setting. We developed a questionnaire on children's travel to school. We assessed test re-test reliability by repeating the questionnaire one week later (n = 61). The questionnaire was improved and re-tested (n = 68). We examined the convergent validity of distance estimates by comparing estimates based on the nearest landmark to children's homes with a 'gold standard' based on one-to-one interviews with children using detailed maps (n = 50). Most questions showed fair to almost perfect agreement. Questions on usual mode of travel (κ 0.73- 0.84) and road injury (κ 0.61- 0.72) were found to be more reliable than those on parental permissions (κ 0.18- 0.30), perception of safety (κ 0.00- 0.54), and physical activity (κ -0.01- 0.07). The distance estimated by the nearest landmark method was not significantly different than the in-depth method for walking , 52 m [95 % CI -32 m to 135 m], 10 % of the mean difference, and for walking and cycling combined, 65 m [95 % CI -30 m to 159 m], 11 % of the mean difference. For children who used motorized transport (excluding private school bus), the nearest landmark method under-estimated distance by an average of 325 metres [95 % CI -664 m to 1314 m], 15 % of the mean difference. A self-administered questionnaire was found to provide reliable information on the usual mode of travel to school, and road injury, in a small sample of children in Hyderabad, India. The 'nearest landmark' method can be applied in similar low-resource settings, for a reasonably accurate estimate of the distance from a child's home to school.

Measurement and Reliability of Response Inhibition

PubMed Central

Congdon, Eliza; Mumford, Jeanette A.; Cohen, Jessica R.; Galvan, Adriana; Canli, Turhan; Poldrack, Russell A.

2012-01-01

Response inhibition plays a critical role in adaptive functioning and can be assessed with the Stop-signal task, which requires participants to suppress prepotent motor responses. Evidence suggests that this ability to inhibit a prepotent motor response (reflected as Stop-signal reaction time (SSRT)) is a quantitative and heritable measure of interindividual variation in brain function. Although attention has been given to the optimal method of SSRT estimation, and initial evidence exists in support of its reliability, there is still variability in how Stop-signal task data are treated across samples. In order to examine this issue, we pooled data across three separate studies and examined the influence of multiple SSRT calculation methods and outlier calling on reliability (using Intra-class correlation). Our results suggest that an approach which uses the average of all available sessions, all trials of each session, and excludes outliers based on predetermined lenient criteria yields reliable SSRT estimates, while not excluding too many participants. Our findings further support the reliability of SSRT, which is commonly used as an index of inhibitory control, and provide support for its continued use as a neurocognitive phenotype. PMID:22363308

The biologic error in gestational length related to the use of the first day of last menstrual period as a proxy for the start of pregnancy.

PubMed

Nakling, Jakob; Buhaug, Harald; Backe, Bjorn

2005-10-01

In a large unselected population of normal spontaneous pregnancies, to estimate the biologic variation of the interval from the first day of the last menstrual period to start of pregnancy, and the biologic variation of gestational length to delivery; and to estimate the random error of routine ultrasound assessment of gestational age in mid-second trimester. Cohort study of 11,238 singleton pregnancies, with spontaneous onset of labour and reliable last menstrual period. The day of delivery was predicted with two independent methods: According to the rule of Nägele and based on ultrasound examination in gestational weeks 17-19. For both methods, the mean difference between observed and predicted day of delivery was calculated. The variances of the differences were combined to estimate the variances of the two partitions of pregnancy. The biologic variation of the time from last menstrual period to pregnancy start was estimated to 7.0 days (standard deviation), and the standard deviation of the time to spontaneous delivery was estimated to 12.4 days. The estimate of the standard deviation of the random error of ultrasound assessed foetal age was 5.2 days. Even when the last menstrual period is reliable, the biologic variation of the time from last menstrual period to the real start of pregnancy is substantial, and must be taken into account. Reliable information about the first day of the last menstrual period is not equivalent with reliable information about the start of pregnancy.

Estimation of environment-related properties of chemicals for design of sustainable processes: development of group-contribution+ (GC+) property models and uncertainty analysis.

PubMed

Hukkerikar, Amol Shivajirao; Kalakul, Sawitree; Sarup, Bent; Young, Douglas M; Sin, Gürkan; Gani, Rafiqul

2012-11-26

The aim of this work is to develop group-contribution(+) (GC(+)) method (combined group-contribution (GC) method and atom connectivity index (CI) method) based property models to provide reliable estimations of environment-related properties of organic chemicals together with uncertainties of estimated property values. For this purpose, a systematic methodology for property modeling and uncertainty analysis is used. The methodology includes a parameter estimation step to determine parameters of property models and an uncertainty analysis step to establish statistical information about the quality of parameter estimation, such as the parameter covariance, the standard errors in predicted properties, and the confidence intervals. For parameter estimation, large data sets of experimentally measured property values of a wide range of chemicals (hydrocarbons, oxygenated chemicals, nitrogenated chemicals, poly functional chemicals, etc.) taken from the database of the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and from the database of USEtox is used. For property modeling and uncertainty analysis, the Marrero and Gani GC method and atom connectivity index method have been considered. In total, 22 environment-related properties, which include the fathead minnow 96-h LC(50), Daphnia magna 48-h LC(50), oral rat LD(50), aqueous solubility, bioconcentration factor, permissible exposure limit (OSHA-TWA), photochemical oxidation potential, global warming potential, ozone depletion potential, acidification potential, emission to urban air (carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic), emission to continental rural air (carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic), emission to continental fresh water (carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic), emission to continental seawater (carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic), emission to continental natural soil (carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic), and emission to continental agricultural soil (carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic) have been modeled and analyzed. The application of the developed property models for the estimation of environment-related properties and uncertainties of the estimated property values is highlighted through an illustrative example. The developed property models provide reliable estimates of environment-related properties needed to perform process synthesis, design, and analysis of sustainable chemical processes and allow one to evaluate the effect of uncertainties of estimated property values on the calculated performance of processes giving useful insights into quality and reliability of the design of sustainable processes.

Estimating sediment discharge: Appendix D

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gray, John R.; Simões, Francisco J. M.

2008-01-01

Sediment-discharge measurements usually are available on a discrete or periodic basis. However, estimates of sediment transport often are needed for unmeasured periods, such as when daily or annual sediment-discharge values are sought, or when estimates of transport rates for unmeasured or hypothetical flows are required. Selected methods for estimating suspended-sediment, bed-load, bed- material-load, and total-load discharges have been presented in some detail elsewhere in this volume. The purposes of this contribution are to present some limitations and potential pitfalls associated with obtaining and using the requisite data and equations to estimate sediment discharges and to provide guidance for selecting appropriate estimating equations. Records of sediment discharge are derived from data collected with sufficient frequency to obtain reliable estimates for the computational interval and period. Most sediment- discharge records are computed at daily or annual intervals based on periodically collected data, although some partial records represent discrete or seasonal intervals such as those for flood periods. The method used to calculate sediment- discharge records is dependent on the types and frequency of available data. Records for suspended-sediment discharge computed by methods described by Porterfield (1972) are most prevalent, in part because measurement protocols and computational techniques are well established and because suspended sediment composes the bulk of sediment dis- charges for many rivers. Discharge records for bed load, total load, or in some cases bed-material load plus wash load are less common. Reliable estimation of sediment discharges presupposes that the data on which the estimates are based are comparable and reliable. Unfortunately, data describing a selected characteristic of sediment were not necessarily derived—collected, processed, analyzed, or interpreted—in a consistent manner. For example, bed-load data collected with different types of bed-load samplers may not be comparable (Gray et al. 1991; Childers 1999; Edwards and Glysson 1999). The total suspended solids (TSS) analytical method tends to produce concentration data from open-channel flows that are biased low with respect to their paired suspended-sediment concentration values, particularly when sand-size material composes more than about a quarter of the material in suspension. Instantaneous sediment-discharge values based on TSS data may differ from the more reliable product of suspended- sediment concentration values and the same water-discharge data by an order of magnitude (Gray et al. 2000; Bent et al. 2001; Glysson et al. 2000; 2001). An assessment of data comparability and reliability is an important first step in the estimation of sediment discharges. There are two approaches to obtaining values describing sediment loads in streams. One is based on direct measurement of the quantities of interest, and the other on relations developed between hydraulic parameters and sediment- transport potential. In the next sections, the most common techniques for both approaches are briefly addressed.

Smile line assessment comparing quantitative measurement and visual estimation.

PubMed

Van der Geld, Pieter; Oosterveld, Paul; Schols, Jan; Kuijpers-Jagtman, Anne Marie

2011-02-01

Esthetic analysis of dynamic functions such as spontaneous smiling is feasible by using digital videography and computer measurement for lip line height and tooth display. Because quantitative measurements are time-consuming, digital videography and semiquantitative (visual) estimation according to a standard categorization are more practical for regular diagnostics. Our objective in this study was to compare 2 semiquantitative methods with quantitative measurements for reliability and agreement. The faces of 122 male participants were individually registered by using digital videography. Spontaneous and posed smiles were captured. On the records, maxillary lip line heights and tooth display were digitally measured on each tooth and also visually estimated according to 3-grade and 4-grade scales. Two raters were involved. An error analysis was performed. Reliability was established with kappa statistics. Interexaminer and intraexaminer reliability values were high, with median kappa values from 0.79 to 0.88. Agreement of the 3-grade scale estimation with quantitative measurement showed higher median kappa values (0.76) than the 4-grade scale estimation (0.66). Differentiating high and gummy smile lines (4-grade scale) resulted in greater inaccuracies. The estimation of a high, average, or low smile line for each tooth showed high reliability close to quantitative measurements. Smile line analysis can be performed reliably with a 3-grade scale (visual) semiquantitative estimation. For a more comprehensive diagnosis, additional measuring is proposed, especially in patients with disproportional gingival display. Copyright © 2011 American Association of Orthodontists. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Regression dilution bias: tools for correction methods and sample size calculation.

PubMed

Berglund, Lars

2012-08-01

Random errors in measurement of a risk factor will introduce downward bias of an estimated association to a disease or a disease marker. This phenomenon is called regression dilution bias. A bias correction may be made with data from a validity study or a reliability study. In this article we give a non-technical description of designs of reliability studies with emphasis on selection of individuals for a repeated measurement, assumptions of measurement error models, and correction methods for the slope in a simple linear regression model where the dependent variable is a continuous variable. Also, we describe situations where correction for regression dilution bias is not appropriate. The methods are illustrated with the association between insulin sensitivity measured with the euglycaemic insulin clamp technique and fasting insulin, where measurement of the latter variable carries noticeable random error. We provide software tools for estimation of a corrected slope in a simple linear regression model assuming data for a continuous dependent variable and a continuous risk factor from a main study and an additional measurement of the risk factor in a reliability study. Also, we supply programs for estimation of the number of individuals needed in the reliability study and for choice of its design. Our conclusion is that correction for regression dilution bias is seldom applied in epidemiological studies. This may cause important effects of risk factors with large measurement errors to be neglected.

Data Applicability of Heritage and New Hardware for Launch Vehicle System Reliability Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Al Hassan Mohammad; Novack, Steven

2015-01-01

Many launch vehicle systems are designed and developed using heritage and new hardware. In most cases, the heritage hardware undergoes modifications to fit new functional system requirements, impacting the failure rates and, ultimately, the reliability data. New hardware, which lacks historical data, is often compared to like systems when estimating failure rates. Some qualification of applicability for the data source to the current system should be made. Accurately characterizing the reliability data applicability and quality under these circumstances is crucial to developing model estimations that support confident decisions on design changes and trade studies. This presentation will demonstrate a data-source classification method that ranks reliability data according to applicability and quality criteria to a new launch vehicle. This method accounts for similarities/dissimilarities in source and applicability, as well as operating environments like vibrations, acoustic regime, and shock. This classification approach will be followed by uncertainty-importance routines to assess the need for additional data to reduce uncertainty.

Competing risk models in reliability systems, a weibull distribution model with bayesian analysis approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iskandar, Ismed; Satria Gondokaryono, Yudi

2016-02-01

In reliability theory, the most important problem is to determine the reliability of a complex system from the reliability of its components. The weakness of most reliability theories is that the systems are described and explained as simply functioning or failed. In many real situations, the failures may be from many causes depending upon the age and the environment of the system and its components. Another problem in reliability theory is one of estimating the parameters of the assumed failure models. The estimation may be based on data collected over censored or uncensored life tests. In many reliability problems, the failure data are simply quantitatively inadequate, especially in engineering design and maintenance system. The Bayesian analyses are more beneficial than the classical one in such cases. The Bayesian estimation analyses allow us to combine past knowledge or experience in the form of an apriori distribution with life test data to make inferences of the parameter of interest. In this paper, we have investigated the application of the Bayesian estimation analyses to competing risk systems. The cases are limited to the models with independent causes of failure by using the Weibull distribution as our model. A simulation is conducted for this distribution with the objectives of verifying the models and the estimators and investigating the performance of the estimators for varying sample size. The simulation data are analyzed by using Bayesian and the maximum likelihood analyses. The simulation results show that the change of the true of parameter relatively to another will change the value of standard deviation in an opposite direction. For a perfect information on the prior distribution, the estimation methods of the Bayesian analyses are better than those of the maximum likelihood. The sensitivity analyses show some amount of sensitivity over the shifts of the prior locations. They also show the robustness of the Bayesian analysis within the range between the true value and the maximum likelihood estimated value lines.

Brillouin Scattering Spectrum Analysis Based on Auto-Regressive Spectral Estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Mengyun; Li, Wei; Liu, Zhangyun; Cheng, Linghao; Guan, Bai-Ou

2018-06-01

Auto-regressive (AR) spectral estimation technology is proposed to analyze the Brillouin scattering spectrum in Brillouin optical time-domain refelectometry. It shows that AR based method can reliably estimate the Brillouin frequency shift with an accuracy much better than fast Fourier transform (FFT) based methods provided the data length is not too short. It enables about 3 times improvement over FFT at a moderate spatial resolution.

Getting It Right Matters: Climate Spectra and Their Estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Privalsky, Victor; Yushkov, Vladislav

2018-06-01

In many recent publications, climate spectra estimated with different methods from observed, GCM-simulated, and reconstructed time series contain many peaks at time scales from a few years to many decades and even centuries. However, respective spectral estimates obtained with the autoregressive (AR) and multitapering (MTM) methods showed that spectra of climate time series are smooth and contain no evidence of periodic or quasi-periodic behavior. Four order selection criteria for the autoregressive models were studied and proven sufficiently reliable for 25 time series of climate observations at individual locations or spatially averaged at local-to-global scales. As time series of climate observations are short, an alternative reliable nonparametric approach is Thomson's MTM. These results agree with both the earlier climate spectral analyses and the Markovian stochastic model of climate.

Measuring eating disorder attitudes and behaviors: a reliability generalization study

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Although score reliability is a sample-dependent characteristic, researchers often only report reliability estimates from previous studies as justification for employing particular questionnaires in their research. The present study followed reliability generalization procedures to determine the mean score reliability of the Eating Disorder Inventory and its most commonly employed subscales (Drive for Thinness, Bulimia, and Body Dissatisfaction) and the Eating Attitudes Test as a way to better identify those characteristics that might impact score reliability. Methods Published studies that used these measures were coded based on their reporting of reliability information and additional study characteristics that might influence score reliability. Results Score reliability estimates were included in 26.15% of studies using the EDI and 36.28% of studies using the EAT. Mean Cronbach’s alphas for the EDI (total score = .91; subscales = .75 to .89), EAT-40 (total score = .81) and EAT-26 (total score = .86; subscales = .56 to .80) suggested variability in estimated internal consistency. Whereas some EDI subscales exhibited higher score reliability in clinical eating disorder samples than in nonclinical samples, other subscales did not exhibit these differences. Score reliability information for the EAT was primarily reported for nonclinical samples, making it difficult to characterize the effect of type of sample on these measures. However, there was a tendency for mean score reliability to be higher in the adult (vs. adolescent) samples and in female (vs. male) samples. Conclusions Overall, this study highlights the importance of assessing and reporting internal consistency during every test administration because reliability is affected by characteristics of the participants being examined. PMID:24764530

Developing Confidence Limits For Reliability Of Software

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hayhurst, Kelly J.

1991-01-01

Technique developed for estimating reliability of software by use of Moranda geometric de-eutrophication model. Pivotal method enables straightforward construction of exact bounds with associated degree of statistical confidence about reliability of software. Confidence limits thus derived provide precise means of assessing quality of software. Limits take into account number of bugs found while testing and effects of sampling variation associated with random order of discovering bugs.

An Efficient Acoustic Density Estimation Method with Human Detectors Applied to Gibbons in Cambodia.

PubMed

Kidney, Darren; Rawson, Benjamin M; Borchers, David L; Stevenson, Ben C; Marques, Tiago A; Thomas, Len

2016-01-01

Some animal species are hard to see but easy to hear. Standard visual methods for estimating population density for such species are often ineffective or inefficient, but methods based on passive acoustics show more promise. We develop spatially explicit capture-recapture (SECR) methods for territorial vocalising species, in which humans act as an acoustic detector array. We use SECR and estimated bearing data from a single-occasion acoustic survey of a gibbon population in northeastern Cambodia to estimate the density of calling groups. The properties of the estimator are assessed using a simulation study, in which a variety of survey designs are also investigated. We then present a new form of the SECR likelihood for multi-occasion data which accounts for the stochastic availability of animals. In the context of gibbon surveys this allows model-based estimation of the proportion of groups that produce territorial vocalisations on a given day, thereby enabling the density of groups, instead of the density of calling groups, to be estimated. We illustrate the performance of this new estimator by simulation. We show that it is possible to estimate density reliably from human acoustic detections of visually cryptic species using SECR methods. For gibbon surveys we also show that incorporating observers' estimates of bearings to detected groups substantially improves estimator performance. Using the new form of the SECR likelihood we demonstrate that estimates of availability, in addition to population density and detection function parameters, can be obtained from multi-occasion data, and that the detection function parameters are not confounded with the availability parameter. This acoustic SECR method provides a means of obtaining reliable density estimates for territorial vocalising species. It is also efficient in terms of data requirements since since it only requires routine survey data. We anticipate that the low-tech field requirements will make this method an attractive option in many situations where populations can be surveyed acoustically by humans.

A systematic review of publications assessing reliability and validity of the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS), 2004–2011

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background In recent years response rates on telephone surveys have been declining. Rates for the behavioral risk factor surveillance system (BRFSS) have also declined, prompting the use of new methods of weighting and the inclusion of cell phone sampling frames. A number of scholars and researchers have conducted studies of the reliability and validity of the BRFSS estimates in the context of these changes. As the BRFSS makes changes in its methods of sampling and weighting, a review of reliability and validity studies of the BRFSS is needed. Methods In order to assess the reliability and validity of prevalence estimates taken from the BRFSS, scholarship published from 2004–2011 dealing with tests of reliability and validity of BRFSS measures was compiled and presented by topics of health risk behavior. Assessments of the quality of each publication were undertaken using a categorical rubric. Higher rankings were achieved by authors who conducted reliability tests using repeated test/retest measures, or who conducted tests using multiple samples. A similar rubric was used to rank validity assessments. Validity tests which compared the BRFSS to physical measures were ranked higher than those comparing the BRFSS to other self-reported data. Literature which undertook more sophisticated statistical comparisons was also ranked higher. Results Overall findings indicated that BRFSS prevalence rates were comparable to other national surveys which rely on self-reports, although specific differences are noted for some categories of response. BRFSS prevalence rates were less similar to surveys which utilize physical measures in addition to self-reported data. There is very little research on reliability and validity for some health topics, but a great deal of information supporting the validity of the BRFSS data for others. Conclusions Limitations of the examination of the BRFSS were due to question differences among surveys used as comparisons, as well as mode of data collection differences. As the BRFSS moves to incorporating cell phone data and changing weighting methods, a review of reliability and validity research indicated that past BRFSS landline only data were reliable and valid as measured against other surveys. New analyses and comparisons of BRFSS data which include the new methodologies and cell phone data will be needed to ascertain the impact of these changes on estimates in the future. PMID:23522349

Quantifying complexity of financial short-term time series by composite multiscale entropy measure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niu, Hongli; Wang, Jun

2015-05-01

It is significant to study the complexity of financial time series since the financial market is a complex evolved dynamic system. Multiscale entropy is a prevailing method used to quantify the complexity of a time series. Due to its less reliability of entropy estimation for short-term time series at large time scales, a modification method, the composite multiscale entropy, is applied to the financial market. To qualify its effectiveness, its applications in the synthetic white noise and 1 / f noise with different data lengths are reproduced first in the present paper. Then it is introduced for the first time to make a reliability test with two Chinese stock indices. After conducting on short-time return series, the CMSE method shows the advantages in reducing deviations of entropy estimation and demonstrates more stable and reliable results when compared with the conventional MSE algorithm. Finally, the composite multiscale entropy of six important stock indices from the world financial markets is investigated, and some useful and interesting empirical results are obtained.

A method for energy window optimization for quantitative tasks that includes the effects of model-mismatch on bias: application to Y-90 bremsstrahlung SPECT imaging.

PubMed

Rong, Xing; Du, Yong; Frey, Eric C

2012-06-21

Quantitative Yttrium-90 ((90)Y) bremsstrahlung single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) imaging has shown great potential to provide reliable estimates of (90)Y activity distribution for targeted radionuclide therapy dosimetry applications. One factor that potentially affects the reliability of the activity estimates is the choice of the acquisition energy window. In contrast to imaging conventional gamma photon emitters where the acquisition energy windows are usually placed around photopeaks, there has been great variation in the choice of the acquisition energy window for (90)Y imaging due to the continuous and broad energy distribution of the bremsstrahlung photons. In quantitative imaging of conventional gamma photon emitters, previous methods for optimizing the acquisition energy window assumed unbiased estimators and used the variance in the estimates as a figure of merit (FOM). However, for situations, such as (90)Y imaging, where there are errors in the modeling of the image formation process used in the reconstruction there will be bias in the activity estimates. In (90)Y bremsstrahlung imaging this will be especially important due to the high levels of scatter, multiple scatter, and collimator septal penetration and scatter. Thus variance will not be a complete measure of reliability of the estimates and thus is not a complete FOM. To address this, we first aimed to develop a new method to optimize the energy window that accounts for both the bias due to model-mismatch and the variance of the activity estimates. We applied this method to optimize the acquisition energy window for quantitative (90)Y bremsstrahlung SPECT imaging in microsphere brachytherapy. Since absorbed dose is defined as the absorbed energy from the radiation per unit mass of tissues in this new method we proposed a mass-weighted root mean squared error of the volume of interest (VOI) activity estimates as the FOM. To calculate this FOM, two analytical expressions were derived for calculating the bias due to model-mismatch and the variance of the VOI activity estimates, respectively. To obtain the optimal acquisition energy window for general situations of interest in clinical (90)Y microsphere imaging, we generated phantoms with multiple tumors of various sizes and various tumor-to-normal activity concentration ratios using a digital phantom that realistically simulates human anatomy, simulated (90)Y microsphere imaging with a clinical SPECT system and typical imaging parameters using a previously validated Monte Carlo simulation code, and used a previously proposed method for modeling the image degrading effects in quantitative SPECT reconstruction. The obtained optimal acquisition energy window was 100-160 keV. The values of the proposed FOM were much larger than the FOM taking into account only the variance of the activity estimates, thus demonstrating in our experiment that the bias of the activity estimates due to model-mismatch was a more important factor than the variance in terms of limiting the reliability of activity estimates.

Designing Glass Panels for Economy and Reliability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moore, D. M.

1983-01-01

Analytical method determines probability of failure of rectangular glass plates subjected to uniformly distributed loads such as those from wind, earthquake, snow, and deadweight. Developed as aid in design of protective glass covers for solar-cell arrays and solar collectors, method is also useful in estimating the reliability of large windows in buildings exposed to high winds and is adapted to nonlinear stress analysis of simply supported plates of any elastic material.

Multidisciplinary System Reliability Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mahadevan, Sankaran; Han, Song; Chamis, Christos C. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

The objective of this study is to develop a new methodology for estimating the reliability of engineering systems that encompass multiple disciplines. The methodology is formulated in the context of the NESSUS probabilistic structural analysis code, developed under the leadership of NASA Glenn Research Center. The NESSUS code has been successfully applied to the reliability estimation of a variety of structural engineering systems. This study examines whether the features of NESSUS could be used to investigate the reliability of systems in other disciplines such as heat transfer, fluid mechanics, electrical circuits etc., without considerable programming effort specific to each discipline. In this study, the mechanical equivalence between system behavior models in different disciplines are investigated to achieve this objective. A new methodology is presented for the analysis of heat transfer, fluid flow, and electrical circuit problems using the structural analysis routines within NESSUS, by utilizing the equivalence between the computational quantities in different disciplines. This technique is integrated with the fast probability integration and system reliability techniques within the NESSUS code, to successfully compute the system reliability of multidisciplinary systems. Traditional as well as progressive failure analysis methods for system reliability estimation are demonstrated, through a numerical example of a heat exchanger system involving failure modes in structural, heat transfer and fluid flow disciplines.

Multi-Disciplinary System Reliability Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mahadevan, Sankaran; Han, Song

1997-01-01

The objective of this study is to develop a new methodology for estimating the reliability of engineering systems that encompass multiple disciplines. The methodology is formulated in the context of the NESSUS probabilistic structural analysis code developed under the leadership of NASA Lewis Research Center. The NESSUS code has been successfully applied to the reliability estimation of a variety of structural engineering systems. This study examines whether the features of NESSUS could be used to investigate the reliability of systems in other disciplines such as heat transfer, fluid mechanics, electrical circuits etc., without considerable programming effort specific to each discipline. In this study, the mechanical equivalence between system behavior models in different disciplines are investigated to achieve this objective. A new methodology is presented for the analysis of heat transfer, fluid flow, and electrical circuit problems using the structural analysis routines within NESSUS, by utilizing the equivalence between the computational quantities in different disciplines. This technique is integrated with the fast probability integration and system reliability techniques within the NESSUS code, to successfully compute the system reliability of multi-disciplinary systems. Traditional as well as progressive failure analysis methods for system reliability estimation are demonstrated, through a numerical example of a heat exchanger system involving failure modes in structural, heat transfer and fluid flow disciplines.

[Research & development on computer expert system for forensic bones estimation].

PubMed

Zhao, Jun-ji; Zhang, Jan-zheng; Liu, Nin-guo

2005-08-01

To build an expert system for forensic bones estimation. By using the object oriented method, employing statistical data of forensic anthropology, combining the statistical data frame knowledge representation with productions and also using the fuzzy matching and DS evidence theory method. Software for forensic estimation of sex, age and height with opened knowledge base was designed. This system is reliable and effective, and it would be a good assistant of the forensic technician.

Reliability and criterion validity of two applications of the iPhone™ to measure cervical range of motion in healthy participants

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Summary of background data Recent smartphones, such as the iPhone, are often equipped with an accelerometer and magnetometer, which, through software applications, can perform various inclinometric functions. Although these applications are intended for recreational use, they have the potential to measure and quantify range of motion. The purpose of this study was to estimate the intra and inter-rater reliability as well as the criterion validity of the clinometer and compass applications of the iPhone in the assessment cervical range of motion in healthy participants. Methods The sample consisted of 28 healthy participants. Two examiners measured cervical range of motion of each participant twice using the iPhone (for the estimation of intra and inter-reliability) and once with the CROM (for the estimation of criterion validity). Estimates of reliability and validity were then established using the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC). Results We observed a moderate intra-rater reliability for each movement (ICC = 0.65-0.85) but a poor inter-rater reliability (ICC < 0.60). For the criterion validity, the ICCs are moderate (>0.50) to good (>0.65) for movements of flexion, extension, lateral flexions and right rotation, but poor (<0.50) for the movement left rotation. Conclusion We found good intra-rater reliability and lower inter-rater reliability. When compared to the gold standard, these applications showed moderate to good validity. However, before using the iPhone as an outcome measure in clinical settings, studies should be done on patients presenting with cervical problems. PMID:23829201

Ultrasound estimates of muscle quality in older adults: reliability and comparison of Photoshop and ImageJ for the grayscale analysis of muscle echogenicity

PubMed Central

Seamon, Bryant A.; Teixeira, Carla; Ismail, Catheeja

2016-01-01

Background. Quantitative diagnostic ultrasound imaging has been proposed as a method of estimating muscle quality using measures of echogenicity. The Rectangular Marquee Tool (RMT) and the Free Hand Tool (FHT) are two types of editing features used in Photoshop and ImageJ for determining a region of interest (ROI) within an ultrasound image. The primary objective of this study is to determine the intrarater and interrater reliability of Photoshop and ImageJ for the estimate of muscle tissue echogenicity in older adults via grayscale histogram analysis. The secondary objective is to compare the mean grayscale values obtained using both the RMT and FHT methods across both image analysis platforms. Methods. This cross-sectional observational study features 18 community-dwelling men (age = 61.5 ± 2.32 years). Longitudinal views of the rectus femoris were captured using B-mode ultrasound. The ROI for each scan was selected by 2 examiners using the RMT and FHT methods from each software program. Their reliability is assessed using intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs) and the standard error of the measurement (SEM). Measurement agreement for these values is depicted using Bland-Altman plots. A paired t-test is used to determine mean differences in echogenicity expressed as grayscale values using the RMT and FHT methods to select the post-image acquisition ROI. The degree of association among ROI selection methods and image analysis platforms is analyzed using the coefficient of determination (R2). Results. The raters demonstrated excellent intrarater and interrater reliability using the RMT and FHT methods across both platforms (lower bound 95% CI ICC = .97–.99, p < .001). Mean differences between the echogenicity estimates obtained with the RMT and FHT methods was .87 grayscale levels (95% CI [.54–1.21], p < .0001) using data obtained with both programs. The SEM for Photoshop was .97 and 1.05 grayscale levels when using the RMT and FHT ROI selection methods, respectively. Comparatively, the SEM values were .72 and .81 grayscale levels, respectively, when using the RMT and FHT ROI selection methods in ImageJ. Uniform coefficients of determination (R2 = .96–.99, p < .001) indicate strong positive associations among the grayscale histogram analysis measurement conditions independent of the ROI selection methods and imaging platform. Conclusion. Our method for evaluating muscle echogenicity demonstrated a high degree of intrarater and interrater reliability using both the RMT and FHT methods across 2 common image analysis platforms. The minimal measurement error exhibited by the examiners demonstrates that the ROI selection methods used with Photoshop and ImageJ are suitable for the post-acquisition image analysis of tissue echogenicity in older adults. PMID:26925339

A method superior to adding percentiles when only limited anthropometric data such as percentile tables are available for design models.

PubMed

Albin, Thomas J; Vink, Peter

2014-11-01

Designers and ergonomists may occasionally be limited to using tables of percentiles of anthropometric data to model users. Design models that add or subtract percentiles produce unreliable estimates of the proportion of users accommodated, in part because they assume a perfect correlation between variables. Percentile data do not allow the use of more reliable modeling methods such as Principle Component Analysis. A better method is needed. A new method for modeling with limited data is described. It uses measures of central tendency (median or mean) of the range of possible correlation values to estimate the combined variance is shown to reduce error compared to combining percentiles. Second, use of the Chebyshev inequality allows the designer to more reliably estimate the percent accommodation when the distributions of the underlying anthropometric data are unknown than does combining percentiles. This paper describes a modeling method that is more accurate than combining percentiles when only limited data are available. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd and The Ergonomics Society. All rights reserved.

Estimating aboveground biomass of mariola (Parthenium incanum) from plant dimensions

Treesearch

Carlos Villalobos

2007-01-01

The distribution and abundance of plant biomass in space and time are important properties of rangeland ecosystem. Land managers and researchers require reliable shrub weight estimates to evaluate site productivity, food abundance, treatment effects, and stocking rates. Rapid, nondestructive methods are needed to estimate shrub biomass in semi-arid ecosystems. Shrub...

Estimating forestland area change from inventory data

Treesearch

Paul Van Deusen; Francis Roesch; Thomas Wigley

2013-01-01

Simple methods for estimating the proportion of land changing from forest to nonforest are developed. Variance estimators are derived to facilitate significance tests. A power analysis indicates that 400 inventory plots are required to reliably detect small changes in net or gross forest loss. This is an important result because forest certification programs may...

Earthquake magnitude estimation using the τ c and P d method for earthquake early warning systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jin, Xing; Zhang, Hongcai; Li, Jun; Wei, Yongxiang; Ma, Qiang

2013-10-01

Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems are one of the most effective ways to reduce earthquake disaster. Earthquake magnitude estimation is one of the most important and also the most difficult parts of the entire EEW system. In this paper, based on 142 earthquake events and 253 seismic records that were recorded by the KiK-net in Japan, and aftershocks of the large Wenchuan earthquake in Sichuan, we obtained earthquake magnitude estimation relationships using the τ c and P d methods. The standard variances of magnitude calculation of these two formulas are ±0.65 and ±0.56, respectively. The P d value can also be used to estimate the peak ground motion of velocity, then warning information can be released to the public rapidly, according to the estimation results. In order to insure the stability and reliability of magnitude estimation results, we propose a compatibility test according to the natures of these two parameters. The reliability of the early warning information is significantly improved though this test.

Estimating the reliability of repeatedly measured endpoints based on linear mixed-effects models. A tutorial.

PubMed

Van der Elst, Wim; Molenberghs, Geert; Hilgers, Ralf-Dieter; Verbeke, Geert; Heussen, Nicole

2016-11-01

There are various settings in which researchers are interested in the assessment of the correlation between repeated measurements that are taken within the same subject (i.e., reliability). For example, the same rating scale may be used to assess the symptom severity of the same patients by multiple physicians, or the same outcome may be measured repeatedly over time in the same patients. Reliability can be estimated in various ways, for example, using the classical Pearson correlation or the intra-class correlation in clustered data. However, contemporary data often have a complex structure that goes well beyond the restrictive assumptions that are needed with the more conventional methods to estimate reliability. In the current paper, we propose a general and flexible modeling approach that allows for the derivation of reliability estimates, standard errors, and confidence intervals - appropriately taking hierarchies and covariates in the data into account. Our methodology is developed for continuous outcomes together with covariates of an arbitrary type. The methodology is illustrated in a case study, and a Web Appendix is provided which details the computations using the R package CorrMixed and the SAS software. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Method-independent, Computationally Frugal Convergence Testing for Sensitivity Analysis Techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mai, J.; Tolson, B.

2017-12-01

The increasing complexity and runtime of environmental models lead to the current situation that the calibration of all model parameters or the estimation of all of their uncertainty is often computationally infeasible. Hence, techniques to determine the sensitivity of model parameters are used to identify most important parameters. All subsequent model calibrations or uncertainty estimation procedures focus then only on these subsets of parameters and are hence less computational demanding. While the examination of the convergence of calibration and uncertainty methods is state-of-the-art, the convergence of the sensitivity methods is usually not checked. If any, bootstrapping of the sensitivity results is used to determine the reliability of the estimated indexes. Bootstrapping, however, might as well become computationally expensive in case of large model outputs and a high number of bootstraps. We, therefore, present a Model Variable Augmentation (MVA) approach to check the convergence of sensitivity indexes without performing any additional model run. This technique is method- and model-independent. It can be applied either during the sensitivity analysis (SA) or afterwards. The latter case enables the checking of already processed sensitivity indexes. To demonstrate the method's independency of the convergence testing method, we applied it to two widely used, global SA methods: the screening method known as Morris method or Elementary Effects (Morris 1991) and the variance-based Sobol' method (Solbol' 1993). The new convergence testing method is first scrutinized using 12 analytical benchmark functions (Cuntz & Mai et al. 2015) where the true indexes of aforementioned three methods are known. This proof of principle shows that the method reliably determines the uncertainty of the SA results when different budgets are used for the SA. The results show that the new frugal method is able to test the convergence and therefore the reliability of SA results in an efficient way. The appealing feature of this new technique is the necessity of no further model evaluation and therefore enables checking of already processed sensitivity results. This is one step towards reliable and transferable, published sensitivity results.

Culture Representation in Human Reliability Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

David Gertman; Julie Marble; Steven Novack

Understanding human-system response is critical to being able to plan and predict mission success in the modern battlespace. Commonly, human reliability analysis has been used to predict failures of human performance in complex, critical systems. However, most human reliability methods fail to take culture into account. This paper takes an easily understood state of the art human reliability analysis method and extends that method to account for the influence of culture, including acceptance of new technology, upon performance. The cultural parameters used to modify the human reliability analysis were determined from two standard industry approaches to cultural assessment: Hofstede’s (1991)more » cultural factors and Davis’ (1989) technology acceptance model (TAM). The result is called the Culture Adjustment Method (CAM). An example is presented that (1) reviews human reliability assessment with and without cultural attributes for a Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) system attack, (2) demonstrates how country specific information can be used to increase the realism of HRA modeling, and (3) discusses the differences in human error probability estimates arising from cultural differences.« less

The modal surface interpolation method for damage localization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pina Limongelli, Maria

2017-05-01

The Interpolation Method (IM) has been previously proposed and successfully applied for damage localization in plate like structures. The method is based on the detection of localized reductions of smoothness in the Operational Deformed Shapes (ODSs) of the structure. The IM can be applied to any type of structure provided the ODSs are estimated accurately in the original and in the damaged configurations. If the latter circumstance fails to occur, for example when the structure is subjected to an unknown input(s) or if the structural responses are strongly corrupted by noise, both false and missing alarms occur when the IM is applied to localize a concentrated damage. In order to overcome these drawbacks a modification of the method is herein investigated. An ODS is the deformed shape of a structure subjected to a harmonic excitation: at resonances the ODS are dominated by the relevant mode shapes. The effect of noise at resonance is usually lower with respect to other frequency values hence the relevant ODS are estimated with higher reliability. Several methods have been proposed to reliably estimate modal shapes in case of unknown input. These two circumstances can be exploited to improve the reliability of the IM. In order to reduce or eliminate the drawbacks related to the estimation of the ODSs in case of noisy signals, in this paper is investigated a modified version of the method based on a damage feature calculated considering the interpolation error relevant only to the modal shapes and not to all the operational shapes in the significant frequency range. Herein will be reported the comparison between the results of the IM in its actual version (with the interpolation error calculated summing up the contributions of all the operational shapes) and in the new proposed version (with the estimation of the interpolation error limited to the modal shapes).

Control optimization, stabilization and computer algorithms for aircraft applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1975-01-01

Research related to reliable aircraft design is summarized. Topics discussed include systems reliability optimization, failure detection algorithms, analysis of nonlinear filters, design of compensators incorporating time delays, digital compensator design, estimation for systems with echoes, low-order compensator design, descent-phase controller for 4-D navigation, infinite dimensional mathematical programming problems and optimal control problems with constraints, robust compensator design, numerical methods for the Lyapunov equations, and perturbation methods in linear filtering and control.

The mercedes-benz approach to γ-ray astronomy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akerlof, Carl W.

1988-02-01

The sensitivity requirements for ground-based γ-ray astronomy are reviewed in the light of the most reliable estimates of stellar fluxes above 100 GeV. Current data strongly favor the construction of detectors with the lowest energy thresholds. Since improvements in angular resolution are limited by shower fluctuations, better methods of rejecting hadronic showers must be found to reliably observe the known astrophysical sources. Several possible methods for reducing this hadronic background are discussed.

NDE reliability and probability of detection (POD) evolution and paradigm shift

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, Surendra

2014-02-01

The subject of NDE Reliability and POD has gone through multiple phases since its humble beginning in the late 1960s. This was followed by several programs including the important one nicknamed "Have Cracks - Will Travel" or in short "Have Cracks" by Lockheed Georgia Company for US Air Force during 1974-1978. This and other studies ultimately led to a series of developments in the field of reliability and POD starting from the introduction of fracture mechanics and Damaged Tolerant Design (DTD) to statistical framework by Bernes and Hovey in 1981 for POD estimation to MIL-STD HDBK 1823 (1999) and 1823A (2009). During the last decade, various groups and researchers have further studied the reliability and POD using Model Assisted POD (MAPOD), Simulation Assisted POD (SAPOD), and applying Bayesian Statistics. All and each of these developments had one objective, i.e., improving accuracy of life prediction in components that to a large extent depends on the reliability and capability of NDE methods. Therefore, it is essential to have a reliable detection and sizing of large flaws in components. Currently, POD is used for studying reliability and capability of NDE methods, though POD data offers no absolute truth regarding NDE reliability, i.e., system capability, effects of flaw morphology, and quantifying the human factors. Furthermore, reliability and POD have been reported alike in meaning but POD is not NDE reliability. POD is a subset of the reliability that consists of six phases: 1) samples selection using DOE, 2) NDE equipment setup and calibration, 3) System Measurement Evaluation (SME) including Gage Repeatability &Reproducibility (Gage R&R) and Analysis Of Variance (ANOVA), 4) NDE system capability and electronic and physical saturation, 5) acquiring and fitting data to a model, and data analysis, and 6) POD estimation. This paper provides an overview of all major POD milestones for the last several decades and discuss rationale for using Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME), MAPOD, SAPOD, and Bayesian statistics for studying controllable and non-controllable variables including human factors for estimating POD. Another objective is to list gaps between "hoped for" versus validated or fielded failed hardware.

Evaluation of Scale Reliability with Binary Measures Using Latent Variable Modeling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Raykov, Tenko; Dimitrov, Dimiter M.; Asparouhov, Tihomir

2010-01-01

A method for interval estimation of scale reliability with discrete data is outlined. The approach is applicable with multi-item instruments consisting of binary measures, and is developed within the latent variable modeling methodology. The procedure is useful for evaluation of consistency of single measures and of sum scores from item sets…

Evaluation of Weighted Scale Reliability and Criterion Validity: A Latent Variable Modeling Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Raykov, Tenko

2007-01-01

A method is outlined for evaluating the reliability and criterion validity of weighted scales based on sets of unidimensional measures. The approach is developed within the framework of latent variable modeling methodology and is useful for point and interval estimation of these measurement quality coefficients in counseling and education…

The reliability of Fishman method of skeletal maturation for age estimation in children of South Indian population.

PubMed

Mohammed, Rezwana Begum; Kalyan, V Siva; Tircouveluri, Saritha; Vegesna, Goutham Chakravarthy; Chirla, Anil; Varma, D Maruthi

2014-07-01

Determining the age of a person in the absence of documentary evidence of birth is essential for legal and medico-legal purpose. Fishman method of skeletal maturation is widely used for this purpose; however, the reliability of this method for people with all geographic locations is not well-established. In this study, we assessed various stages of carpal and metacarpal bone maturation and tested the reliability of Fishman method of skeletal maturation to estimate the age in South Indian population. We also evaluated the correlation between the chronological age (CA) and predicted age based on the Fishman method of skeletal maturation. Digital right hand-wrist radiographs of 330 individuals aged 9-20 years were obtained and the skeletal maturity stage for each subject was determined using Fishman method. The skeletal maturation indicator scores were obtained and analyzed with reference to CA and sex. Data was analyzed using the SPSS software package (version 12, SPSS Inc., Chicago, IL, USA). The study subjects had a tendency toward late maturation with the mean skeletal age (SA) estimated being significantly lowers (P < 0.05) than the mean CA at various skeletal maturity stages. Nevertheless, significant correlation was observed in this study between SA and CA for males (r = 0.82) and females (r = 0.85). Interestingly, female subjects were observed to be advanced in SA compared with males. Fishman method of skeletal maturation can be used as an alternative tool for the assessment of mean age of an individual of unknown CA in South Indian children.

Experiments in fault tolerant software reliability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcallister, David F.; Tai, K. C.; Vouk, Mladen A.

1987-01-01

The reliability of voting was evaluated in a fault-tolerant software system for small output spaces. The effectiveness of the back-to-back testing process was investigated. Version 3.0 of the RSDIMU-ATS, a semi-automated test bed for certification testing of RSDIMU software, was prepared and distributed. Software reliability estimation methods based on non-random sampling are being studied. The investigation of existing fault-tolerance models was continued and formulation of new models was initiated.

Reliability Estimation of Aero-engine Based on Mixed Weibull Distribution Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Zhongda; Deng, Junxiang; Wang, Dawei

2018-02-01

Aero-engine is a complex mechanical electronic system, based on analysis of reliability of mechanical electronic system, Weibull distribution model has an irreplaceable role. Till now, only two-parameter Weibull distribution model and three-parameter Weibull distribution are widely used. Due to diversity of engine failure modes, there is a big error with single Weibull distribution model. By contrast, a variety of engine failure modes can be taken into account with mixed Weibull distribution model, so it is a good statistical analysis model. Except the concept of dynamic weight coefficient, in order to make reliability estimation result more accurately, three-parameter correlation coefficient optimization method is applied to enhance Weibull distribution model, thus precision of mixed distribution reliability model is improved greatly. All of these are advantageous to popularize Weibull distribution model in engineering applications.

Reliability and comparison of Kinect-based methods for estimating spatiotemporal gait parameters of healthy and post-stroke individuals.

PubMed

Latorre, Jorge; Llorens, Roberto; Colomer, Carolina; Alcañiz, Mariano

2018-04-27

Different studies have analyzed the potential of the off-the-shelf Microsoft Kinect, in its different versions, to estimate spatiotemporal gait parameters as a portable markerless low-cost alternative to laboratory grade systems. However, variability in populations, measures, and methodologies prevents accurate comparison of the results. The objective of this study was to determine and compare the reliability of the existing Kinect-based methods to estimate spatiotemporal gait parameters in healthy and post-stroke adults. Forty-five healthy individuals and thirty-eight stroke survivors participated in this study. Participants walked five meters at a comfortable speed and their spatiotemporal gait parameters were estimated from the data retrieved by a Kinect v2, using the most common methods in the literature, and by visual inspection of the videotaped performance. Errors between both estimations were computed. For both healthy and post-stroke participants, highest accuracy was obtained when using the speed of the ankles to estimate gait speed (3.6-5.5 cm/s), stride length (2.5-5.5 cm), and stride time (about 45 ms), and when using the distance between the sacrum and the ankles and toes to estimate double support time (about 65 ms) and swing time (60-90 ms). Although the accuracy of these methods is limited, these measures could occasionally complement traditional tools. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Reliability Modeling of Microelectromechanical Systems Using Neural Networks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Perera. J. Sebastian

2000-01-01

Microelectromechanical systems (MEMS) are a broad and rapidly expanding field that is currently receiving a great deal of attention because of the potential to significantly improve the ability to sense, analyze, and control a variety of processes, such as heating and ventilation systems, automobiles, medicine, aeronautical flight, military surveillance, weather forecasting, and space exploration. MEMS are very small and are a blend of electrical and mechanical components, with electrical and mechanical systems on one chip. This research establishes reliability estimation and prediction for MEMS devices at the conceptual design phase using neural networks. At the conceptual design phase, before devices are built and tested, traditional methods of quantifying reliability are inadequate because the device is not in existence and cannot be tested to establish the reliability distributions. A novel approach using neural networks is created to predict the overall reliability of a MEMS device based on its components and each component's attributes. The methodology begins with collecting attribute data (fabrication process, physical specifications, operating environment, property characteristics, packaging, etc.) and reliability data for many types of microengines. The data are partitioned into training data (the majority) and validation data (the remainder). A neural network is applied to the training data (both attribute and reliability); the attributes become the system inputs and reliability data (cycles to failure), the system output. After the neural network is trained with sufficient data. the validation data are used to verify the neural networks provided accurate reliability estimates. Now, the reliability of a new proposed MEMS device can be estimated by using the appropriate trained neural networks developed in this work.

Modeling of unit operating considerations in generating-capacity reliability evaluation. Volume 1. Mathematical models, computing methods, and results. Final report. [GENESIS, OPCON and OPPLAN

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Patton, A.D.; Ayoub, A.K.; Singh, C.

1982-07-01

Existing methods for generating capacity reliability evaluation do not explicitly recognize a number of operating considerations which may have important effects in system reliability performance. Thus, current methods may yield estimates of system reliability which differ appreciably from actual observed reliability. Further, current methods offer no means of accurately studying or evaluating alternatives which may differ in one or more operating considerations. Operating considerations which are considered to be important in generating capacity reliability evaluation include: unit duty cycles as influenced by load cycle shape, reliability performance of other units, unit commitment policy, and operating reserve policy; unit start-up failuresmore » distinct from unit running failures; unit start-up times; and unit outage postponability and the management of postponable outages. A detailed Monte Carlo simulation computer model called GENESIS and two analytical models called OPCON and OPPLAN have been developed which are capable of incorporating the effects of many operating considerations including those noted above. These computer models have been used to study a variety of actual and synthetic systems and are available from EPRI. The new models are shown to produce system reliability indices which differ appreciably from index values computed using traditional models which do not recognize operating considerations.« less

A Bayesian Approach for Measurements of Stray Neutrons at Proton Therapy Facilities: Quantifying Neutron Dose Uncertainty.

PubMed

Dommert, M; Reginatto, M; Zboril, M; Fiedler, F; Helmbrecht, S; Enghardt, W; Lutz, B

2017-11-28

Bonner sphere measurements are typically analyzed using unfolding codes. It is well known that it is difficult to get reliable estimates of uncertainties for standard unfolding procedures. An alternative approach is to analyze the data using Bayesian parameter estimation. This method provides reliable estimates of the uncertainties of neutron spectra leading to rigorous estimates of uncertainties of the dose. We extend previous Bayesian approaches and apply the method to stray neutrons in proton therapy environments by introducing a new parameterized model which describes the main features of the expected neutron spectra. The parameterization is based on information that is available from measurements and detailed Monte Carlo simulations. The validity of this approach has been validated with results of an experiment using Bonner spheres carried out at the experimental hall of the OncoRay proton therapy facility in Dresden. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Development of a hybrid pollution index for heavy metals in marine and estuarine sediments.

PubMed

Brady, James P; Ayoko, Godwin A; Martens, Wayde N; Goonetilleke, Ashantha

2015-05-01

Heavy metal pollution of sediments is a growing concern in most parts of the world, and numerous studies focussed on identifying contaminated sediments by using a range of digestion methods and pollution indices to estimate sediment contamination have been described in the literature. The current work provides a critical review of the more commonly used sediment digestion methods and identifies that weak acid digestion is more likely to provide guidance on elements that are likely to be bioavailable than other traditional methods of digestion. This work also reviews common pollution indices and identifies the Nemerow Pollution Index as the most appropriate method for establishing overall sediment quality. Consequently, a modified Pollution Index that can lead to a more reliable understanding of whole sediment quality is proposed. This modified pollution index is then tested against a number of existing studies and demonstrated to give a reliable and rapid estimate of sediment contamination and quality.

Estimating Infection Attack Rates and Severity in Real Time during an Influenza Pandemic: Analysis of Serial Cross-Sectional Serologic Surveillance Data

PubMed Central

Wu, Joseph T.; Ho, Andrew; Ma, Edward S. K.; Lee, Cheuk Kwong; Chu, Daniel K. W.; Ho, Po-Lai; Hung, Ivan F. N.; Ho, Lai Ming; Lin, Che Kit; Tsang, Thomas; Lo, Su-Vui; Lau, Yu-Lung; Leung, Gabriel M.

2011-01-01

Background In an emerging influenza pandemic, estimating severity (the probability of a severe outcome, such as hospitalization, if infected) is a public health priority. As many influenza infections are subclinical, sero-surveillance is needed to allow reliable real-time estimates of infection attack rate (IAR) and severity. Methods and Findings We tested 14,766 sera collected during the first wave of the 2009 pandemic in Hong Kong using viral microneutralization. We estimated IAR and infection-hospitalization probability (IHP) from the serial cross-sectional serologic data and hospitalization data. Had our serologic data been available weekly in real time, we would have obtained reliable IHP estimates 1 wk after, 1–2 wk before, and 3 wk after epidemic peak for individuals aged 5–14 y, 15–29 y, and 30–59 y. The ratio of IAR to pre-existing seroprevalence, which decreased with age, was a major determinant for the timeliness of reliable estimates. If we began sero-surveillance 3 wk after community transmission was confirmed, with 150, 350, and 500 specimens per week for individuals aged 5–14 y, 15–19 y, and 20–29 y, respectively, we would have obtained reliable IHP estimates for these age groups 4 wk before the peak. For 30–59 y olds, even 800 specimens per week would not have generated reliable estimates until the peak because the ratio of IAR to pre-existing seroprevalence for this age group was low. The performance of serial cross-sectional sero-surveillance substantially deteriorates if test specificity is not near 100% or pre-existing seroprevalence is not near zero. These potential limitations could be mitigated by choosing a higher titer cutoff for seropositivity. If the epidemic doubling time is longer than 6 d, then serial cross-sectional sero-surveillance with 300 specimens per week would yield reliable estimates when IAR reaches around 6%–10%. Conclusions Serial cross-sectional serologic data together with clinical surveillance data can allow reliable real-time estimates of IAR and severity in an emerging pandemic. Sero-surveillance for pandemics should be considered. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary PMID:21990967

Evaluation of General Classes of Reliability Estimators Often Used in Statistical Analyses of Quasi-Experimental Designs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saini, K. K.; Sehgal, R. K.; Sethi, B. L.

2008-10-01

In this paper major reliability estimators are analyzed and there comparatively result are discussed. There strengths and weaknesses are evaluated in this case study. Each of the reliability estimators has certain advantages and disadvantages. Inter-rater reliability is one of the best ways to estimate reliability when your measure is an observation. However, it requires multiple raters or observers. As an alternative, you could look at the correlation of ratings of the same single observer repeated on two different occasions. Each of the reliability estimators will give a different value for reliability. In general, the test-retest and inter-rater reliability estimates will be lower in value than the parallel forms and internal consistency ones because they involve measuring at different times or with different raters. Since reliability estimates are often used in statistical analyses of quasi-experimental designs.

Orofacial Pain during Mastication in People with Dementia: Reliability Testing of the Orofacial Pain Scale for Non-Verbal Individuals.

PubMed

de Vries, Merlijn W; Visscher, Corine; Delwel, Suzanne; van der Steen, Jenny T; Pieper, Marjoleine J C; Scherder, Erik J A; Achterberg, Wilco P; Lobbezoo, Frank

2016-01-01

Objectives. The aim of this study was to establish the reliability of the "chewing" subscale of the OPS-NVI, a novel tool designed to estimate presence and severity of orofacial pain in nonverbal patients. Methods. The OPS-NVI consists of 16 items for observed behavior, classified into four categories and a subjective estimate of pain. Two observers used the OPS-NVI for 237 video clips of people with dementia in Dutch nursing homes during their meal to observe their behavior and to estimate the intensity of orofacial pain. Six weeks later, the same observers rated the video clips a second time. Results. Bottom and ceiling effects for some items were found. This resulted in exclusion of these items from the statistical analyses. The categories which included the remaining items (n = 6) showed reliability varying between fair-to-good and excellent (interobserver reliability, ICC: 0.40-0.47; intraobserver reliability, ICC: 0.40-0.92). Conclusions. The "chewing" subscale of the OPS-NVI showed a fair-to-good to excellent interobserver and intraobserver reliability in this dementia population. This study contributes to the validation process of the OPS-NVI as a whole and stresses the need for further assessment of the reliability of the OPS-NVI with subjects that might already show signs of orofacial pain.

[Automated procedure for volumetric measurement of metastases: estimation of tumor burden].

PubMed

Fabel, M; Bolte, H

2008-09-01

Cancer is a common and increasing disease worldwide. Therapy monitoring in oncologic patient care requires accurate and reliable measurement methods for evaluation of the tumor burden. RECIST (response evaluation criteria in solid tumors) and WHO criteria are still the current standards for therapy response evaluation with inherent disadvantages due to considerable interobserver variation of the manual diameter estimations. Volumetric analysis of e.g. lung, liver and lymph node metastases, promises to be a more accurate, precise and objective method for tumor burden estimation.

The Infeasibility of Quantifying the Reliability of Life-Critical Real-Time Software

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Butler, Ricky W.; Finelli, George B.

1991-01-01

This paper affirms that the quantification of life-critical software reliability is infeasible using statistical methods whether applied to standard software or fault-tolerant software. The classical methods of estimating reliability are shown to lead to exhorbitant amounts of testing when applied to life-critical software. Reliability growth models are examined and also shown to be incapable of overcoming the need for excessive amounts of testing. The key assumption of software fault tolerance separately programmed versions fail independently is shown to be problematic. This assumption cannot be justified by experimentation in the ultrareliability region and subjective arguments in its favor are not sufficiently strong to justify it as an axiom. Also, the implications of the recent multiversion software experiments support this affirmation.

NURD: an implementation of a new method to estimate isoform expression from non-uniform RNA-seq data

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background RNA-Seq technology has been used widely in transcriptome study, and one of the most important applications is to estimate the expression level of genes and their alternative splicing isoforms. There have been several algorithms published to estimate the expression based on different models. Recently Wu et al. published a method that can accurately estimate isoform level expression by considering position-related sequencing biases using nonparametric models. The method has advantages in handling different read distributions, but there hasn’t been an efficient program to implement this algorithm. Results We developed an efficient implementation of the algorithm in the program NURD. It uses a binary interval search algorithm. The program can correct both the global tendency of sequencing bias in the data and local sequencing bias specific to each gene. The correction makes the isoform expression estimation more reliable under various read distributions. And the implementation is computationally efficient in both the memory cost and running time and can be readily scaled up for huge datasets. Conclusion NURD is an efficient and reliable tool for estimating the isoform expression level. Given the reads mapping result and gene annotation file, NURD will output the expression estimation result. The package is freely available for academic use at http://bioinfo.au.tsinghua.edu.cn/software/NURD/. PMID:23837734

Lower Bounds to the Reliabilities of Factor Score Estimators.

PubMed

Hessen, David J

2016-10-06

Under the general common factor model, the reliabilities of factor score estimators might be of more interest than the reliability of the total score (the unweighted sum of item scores). In this paper, lower bounds to the reliabilities of Thurstone's factor score estimators, Bartlett's factor score estimators, and McDonald's factor score estimators are derived and conditions are given under which these lower bounds are equal. The relative performance of the derived lower bounds is studied using classic example data sets. The results show that estimates of the lower bounds to the reliabilities of Thurstone's factor score estimators are greater than or equal to the estimates of the lower bounds to the reliabilities of Bartlett's and McDonald's factor score estimators.

Girsanov's transformation based variance reduced Monte Carlo simulation schemes for reliability estimation in nonlinear stochastic dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kanjilal, Oindrila; Manohar, C. S.

2017-07-01

The study considers the problem of simulation based time variant reliability analysis of nonlinear randomly excited dynamical systems. Attention is focused on importance sampling strategies based on the application of Girsanov's transformation method. Controls which minimize the distance function, as in the first order reliability method (FORM), are shown to minimize a bound on the sampling variance of the estimator for the probability of failure. Two schemes based on the application of calculus of variations for selecting control signals are proposed: the first obtains the control force as the solution of a two-point nonlinear boundary value problem, and, the second explores the application of the Volterra series in characterizing the controls. The relative merits of these schemes, vis-à-vis the method based on ideas from the FORM, are discussed. Illustrative examples, involving archetypal single degree of freedom (dof) nonlinear oscillators, and a multi-degree of freedom nonlinear dynamical system, are presented. The credentials of the proposed procedures are established by comparing the solutions with pertinent results from direct Monte Carlo simulations.

Locally adaptive MR intensity models and MRF-based segmentation of multiple sclerosis lesions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galimzianova, Alfiia; Lesjak, Žiga; Likar, Boštjan; Pernuš, Franjo; Špiclin, Žiga

2015-03-01

Neuroimaging biomarkers are an important paraclinical tool used to characterize a number of neurological diseases, however, their extraction requires accurate and reliable segmentation of normal and pathological brain structures. For MR images of healthy brains the intensity models of normal-appearing brain tissue (NABT) in combination with Markov random field (MRF) models are known to give reliable and smooth NABT segmentation. However, the presence of pathology, MR intensity bias and natural tissue-dependent intensity variability altogether represent difficult challenges for a reliable estimation of NABT intensity model based on MR images. In this paper, we propose a novel method for segmentation of normal and pathological structures in brain MR images of multiple sclerosis (MS) patients that is based on locally-adaptive NABT model, a robust method for the estimation of model parameters and a MRF-based segmentation framework. Experiments on multi-sequence brain MR images of 27 MS patients show that, compared to whole-brain model and compared to the widely used Expectation-Maximization Segmentation (EMS) method, the locally-adaptive NABT model increases the accuracy of MS lesion segmentation.

Age estimation by modified Demirjian's method (2004) and its applicability in Tibetan young adults: A digital panoramic study.

PubMed

Bijjaragi, Shobha C; Sangle, Varsha A; Saraswathi, F K; Patil, Veerendra S; Ashwini Rani, S R; Bapure, Sunil K

2015-01-01

Estimation of the age is a procedure adopted by anthropologists, archeologists and forensic scientists. Different methods have been undertaken. However none of them meet the standards as Demirjian's method since 1973. Various researchers have applied this method, in both original and modified form (Chaillet and Demirjian in 2004) in different ethnic groups and the results obtained were not satisfactory. To determine the applicability and accuracy of modified Demirjian's method of dental age estimation (AE) in 8-18 year old Tibetan young adults to evaluate the interrelationship between dental and chronological age and the reliability between intra- and inter observer relationship. Clinical setting and computerized design. A total of 300 Tibetan young adults with an age range from 8 to 18 years were recruited in the study. Digital panoramic radiographs (DPRs) were evaluated as per the modified Demirjian's method (2004). Pearson correlation, paired t-test, linear regression analysis. Inter -and intraobserver reliability revealed a strong agreement. A positive and strong association was found between chronological age and estimated dental age (r = 0.839) with P < 0.01. Modified Demirjian method (2004) overestimated the age by 0.04 years (2.04 months)in Tibetan young adults. Results suggest that, the modified Demirjian method of AE is not suitable for Tibetan young adults. Further studies: With larger sample size and comparision with different methods of AE in a given population would be an interesting area for future research.

Estimation of genealogical coancestry in plant species using a pedigree reconstruction algorithm and application to an oil palm breeding population.

PubMed

Cros, David; Sánchez, Leopoldo; Cochard, Benoit; Samper, Patrick; Denis, Marie; Bouvet, Jean-Marc; Fernández, Jesús

2014-04-01

Explicit pedigree reconstruction by simulated annealing gave reliable estimates of genealogical coancestry in plant species, especially when selfing rate was lower than 0.6, using a realistic number of markers. Genealogical coancestry information is crucial in plant breeding to estimate genetic parameters and breeding values. The approach of Fernández and Toro (Mol Ecol 15:1657-1667, 2006) to estimate genealogical coancestries from molecular data through pedigree reconstruction was limited to species with separate sexes. In this study it was extended to plants, allowing hermaphroditism and monoecy, with possible selfing. Moreover, some improvements were made to take previous knowledge on the population demographic history into account. The new method was validated using simulated and real datasets. Simulations showed that accuracy of estimates was high with 30 microsatellites, with the best results obtained for selfing rates below 0.6. In these conditions, the root mean square error (RMSE) between the true and estimated genealogical coancestry was small (<0.07), although the number of ancestors was overestimated and the selfing rate could be biased. Simulations also showed that linkage disequilibrium between markers and departure from the Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium in the founder population did not affect the efficiency of the method. Real oil palm data confirmed the simulation results, with a high correlation between the true and estimated genealogical coancestry (>0.9) and a low RMSE (<0.08) using 38 markers. The method was applied to the Deli oil palm population for which pedigree data were scarce. The estimated genealogical coancestries were highly correlated (>0.9) with the molecular coancestries using 100 markers. Reconstructed pedigrees were used to estimate effective population sizes. In conclusion, this method gave reliable genealogical coancestry estimates. The strategy was implemented in the software MOLCOANC 3.0.

Using Google Earth to Assess Shade for Sun Protection in Urban Recreation Spaces: Methods and Results.

PubMed

Gage, R; Wilson, N; Signal, L; Barr, M; Mackay, C; Reeder, A; Thomson, G

2018-05-16

Shade in public spaces can lower the risk of and sun burning and skin cancer. However, existing methods of auditing shade require travel between sites, and sunny weather conditions. This study aimed to evaluate the feasibility of free computer software-Google Earth-for assessing shade in urban open spaces. A shade projection method was developed that uses Google Earth street view and aerial images to estimate shade at solar noon on the summer solstice, irrespective of the date of image capture. Three researchers used the method to separately estimate shade cover over pre-defined activity areas in a sample of 45 New Zealand urban open spaces, including 24 playgrounds, 12 beaches and 9 outdoor pools. Outcome measures included method accuracy (assessed by comparison with a subsample of field observations of 10 of the settings) and inter-rater reliability. Of the 164 activity areas identified in the 45 settings, most (83%) had no shade cover. The method identified most activity areas in playgrounds (85%) and beaches (93%) and was accurate for assessing shade over these areas (predictive values of 100%). Only 8% of activity areas at outdoor pools were identified, due to a lack of street view images. Reliability for shade cover estimates was excellent (intraclass correlation coefficient of 0.97, 95% CI 0.97-0.98). Google Earth appears to be a reasonably accurate and reliable and shade audit tool for playgrounds and beaches. The findings are relevant for programmes focused on supporting the development of healthy urban open spaces.

Integrated GNSS Attitude Determination and Positioning for Direct Geo-Referencing

PubMed Central

Nadarajah, Nandakumaran; Paffenholz, Jens-André; Teunissen, Peter J. G.

2014-01-01

Direct geo-referencing is an efficient methodology for the fast acquisition of 3D spatial data. It requires the fusion of spatial data acquisition sensors with navigation sensors, such as Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) receivers. In this contribution, we consider an integrated GNSS navigation system to provide estimates of the position and attitude (orientation) of a 3D laser scanner. The proposed multi-sensor system (MSS) consists of multiple GNSS antennas rigidly mounted on the frame of a rotating laser scanner and a reference GNSS station with known coordinates. Precise GNSS navigation requires the resolution of the carrier phase ambiguities. The proposed method uses the multivariate constrained integer least-squares (MC-LAMBDA) method for the estimation of rotating frame ambiguities and attitude angles. MC-LAMBDA makes use of the known antenna geometry to strengthen the underlying attitude model and, hence, to enhance the reliability of rotating frame ambiguity resolution and attitude determination. The reliable estimation of rotating frame ambiguities is consequently utilized to enhance the relative positioning of the rotating frame with respect to the reference station. This integrated (array-aided) method improves ambiguity resolution, as well as positioning accuracy between the rotating frame and the reference station. Numerical analyses of GNSS data from a real-data campaign confirm the improved performance of the proposed method over the existing method. In particular, the integrated method yields reliable ambiguity resolution and reduces position standard deviation by a factor of about 0.8, matching the theoretical gain of 3/4 for two antennas on the rotating frame and a single antenna at the reference station. PMID:25036330

Integrated GNSS attitude determination and positioning for direct geo-referencing.

PubMed

Nadarajah, Nandakumaran; Paffenholz, Jens-André; Teunissen, Peter J G

2014-07-17

Direct geo-referencing is an efficient methodology for the fast acquisition of 3D spatial data. It requires the fusion of spatial data acquisition sensors with navigation sensors, such as Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) receivers. In this contribution, we consider an integrated GNSS navigation system to provide estimates of the position and attitude (orientation) of a 3D laser scanner. The proposed multi-sensor system (MSS) consists of multiple GNSS antennas rigidly mounted on the frame of a rotating laser scanner and a reference GNSS station with known coordinates. Precise GNSS navigation requires the resolution of the carrier phase ambiguities. The proposed method uses the multivariate constrained integer least-squares (MC-LAMBDA) method for the estimation of rotating frame ambiguities and attitude angles. MC-LAMBDA makes use of the known antenna geometry to strengthen the underlying attitude model and, hence, to enhance the reliability of rotating frame ambiguity resolution and attitude determination. The reliable estimation of rotating frame ambiguities is consequently utilized to enhance the relative positioning of the rotating frame with respect to the reference station. This integrated (array-aided) method improves ambiguity resolution, as well as positioning accuracy between the rotating frame and the reference station. Numerical analyses of GNSS data from a real-data campaign confirm the improved performance of the proposed method over the existing method. In particular, the integrated method yields reliable ambiguity resolution and reduces position standard deviation by a factor of about 0:8, matching the theoretical gain of √ 3/4 for two antennas on the rotating frame and a single antenna at the reference station.

The reliability of Fishman method of skeletal maturation for age estimation in children of South Indian population

PubMed Central

Mohammed, Rezwana Begum; Kalyan, V. Siva; Tircouveluri, Saritha; Vegesna, Goutham Chakravarthy; Chirla, Anil; Varma, D. Maruthi

2014-01-01

Introduction: Determining the age of a person in the absence of documentary evidence of birth is essential for legal and medico-legal purpose. Fishman method of skeletal maturation is widely used for this purpose; however, the reliability of this method for people with all geographic locations is not well-established. Aims and Objectives: In this study, we assessed various stages of carpal and metacarpal bone maturation and tested the reliability of Fishman method of skeletal maturation to estimate the age in South Indian population. We also evaluated the correlation between the chronological age (CA) and predicted age based on the Fishman method of skeletal maturation. Materials and Methods: Digital right hand-wrist radiographs of 330 individuals aged 9-20 years were obtained and the skeletal maturity stage for each subject was determined using Fishman method. The skeletal maturation indicator scores were obtained and analyzed with reference to CA and sex. Data was analyzed using the SPSS software package (version 12, SPSS Inc., Chicago, IL, USA). Results: The study subjects had a tendency toward late maturation with the mean skeletal age (SA) estimated being significantly lowers (P < 0.05) than the mean CA at various skeletal maturity stages. Nevertheless, significant correlation was observed in this study between SA and CA for males (r = 0.82) and females (r = 0.85). Interestingly, female subjects were observed to be advanced in SA compared with males. Conclusion: Fishman method of skeletal maturation can be used as an alternative tool for the assessment of mean age of an individual of unknown CA in South Indian children. PMID:25097402

Estimating soil solution nitrate concentration from dielectric spectra using PLS analysis

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Fast and reliable methods for in situ monitoring of soil nitrate-nitrogen concentration are vital for reducing nitrate-nitrogen losses to ground and surface waters from agricultural systems. While several studies have been done to indirectly estimate nitrate-nitrogen concentration from time domain s...

Reliable femoral frame construction based on MRI dedicated to muscles position follow-up.

PubMed

Dubois, G; Bonneau, D; Lafage, V; Rouch, P; Skalli, W

2015-10-01

In vivo follow-up of muscle shape variation represents a challenge when evaluating muscle development due to disease or treatment. Recent developments in muscles reconstruction techniques indicate MRI as a clinical tool for the follow-up of the thigh muscles. The comparison of 3D muscles shape from two different sequences is not easy because there is no common frame. This study proposes an innovative method for the reconstruction of a reliable femoral frame based on the femoral head and both condyles centers. In order to robustify the definition of condylar spheres, an original method was developed to combine the estimation of diameters of both condyles from the lateral antero-posterior distance and the estimation of the spheres center from an optimization process. The influence of spacing between MR slices and of origin positions was studied. For all axes, the proposed method presented an angular error lower than 1° with spacing between slice of 10 mm and the optimal position of the origin was identified at 56 % of the distance between the femoral head center and the barycenter of both condyles. The high reliability of this method provides a robust frame for clinical follow-up based on MRI .

Channel Estimation for Filter Bank Multicarrier Systems in Low SNR Environments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Driggs, Jonathan; Sibbett, Taylor; Moradiy, Hussein

Channel estimation techniques are crucial for reliable communications. This paper is concerned with channel estimation in a filter bank multicarrier spread spectrum (FBMCSS) system. We explore two channel estimator options: (i) a method that makes use of a periodic preamble and mimics the channel estimation techniques that are widely used in OFDM-based systems; and (ii) a method that stays within the traditional realm of filter bank signal processing. For the case where the channel noise is white, both methods are analyzed in detail and their performance is compared against their respective Cramer-Rao Lower Bounds (CRLB). Advantages and disadvantages of themore » two methods under different channel conditions are given to provide insight to the reader as to when one will outperform the other.« less

Tracking Biases: An Update to the Validity and Reliability of Alcohol Retail Sales Data for Estimating Population Consumption in Scotland

PubMed Central

Henderson, Audrey; Robinson, Mark; McAdams, Rachel; McCartney, Gerry; Beeston, Clare

2016-01-01

Aims To highlight the importance of monitoring biases when using retail sales data to estimate population alcohol consumption. Methods Previously, we identified and where possible quantified sources of bias that may lead to under- or overestimation of alcohol consumption in Scotland. Here, we update findings by using more recent data and by quantifying emergent biases. Results Underestimation resulting from the net effect of biases on population consumption in Scotland increased from −4% in 2010 to −7% in 2013. Conclusion Biases that might impact on the validity and reliability of sales data when estimating population consumption should be routinely monitored and updated. PMID:26419684

Validation and reliability of the sex estimation of the human os coxae using freely available DSP2 software for bioarchaeology and forensic anthropology.

PubMed

Brůžek, Jaroslav; Santos, Frédéric; Dutailly, Bruno; Murail, Pascal; Cunha, Eugenia

2017-10-01

A new tool for skeletal sex estimation based on measurements of the human os coxae is presented using skeletons from a metapopulation of identified adult individuals from twelve independent population samples. For reliable sex estimation, a posterior probability greater than 0.95 was considered to be the classification threshold: below this value, estimates are considered indeterminate. By providing free software, we aim to develop an even more disseminated method for sex estimation. Ten metric variables collected from 2,040 ossa coxa of adult subjects of known sex were recorded between 1986 and 2002 (reference sample). To test both the validity and reliability, a target sample consisting of two series of adult ossa coxa of known sex (n = 623) was used. The DSP2 software (Diagnose Sexuelle Probabiliste v2) is based on Linear Discriminant Analysis, and the posterior probabilities are calculated using an R script. For the reference sample, any combination of four dimensions provides a correct sex estimate in at least 99% of cases. The percentage of individuals for whom sex can be estimated depends on the number of dimensions; for all ten variables it is higher than 90%. Those results are confirmed in the target sample. Our posterior probability threshold of 0.95 for sex estimate corresponds to the traditional sectioning point used in osteological studies. DSP2 software is replacing the former version that should not be used anymore. DSP2 is a robust and reliable technique for sexing adult os coxae, and is also user friendly. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Reliability based design including future tests and multiagent approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Villanueva, Diane

The initial stages of reliability-based design optimization involve the formulation of objective functions and constraints, and building a model to estimate the reliability of the design with quantified uncertainties. However, even experienced hands often overlook important objective functions and constraints that affect the design. In addition, uncertainty reduction measures, such as tests and redesign, are often not considered in reliability calculations during the initial stages. This research considers two areas that concern the design of engineering systems: 1) the trade-off of the effect of a test and post-test redesign on reliability and cost and 2) the search for multiple candidate designs as insurance against unforeseen faults in some designs. In this research, a methodology was developed to estimate the effect of a single future test and post-test redesign on reliability and cost. The methodology uses assumed distributions of computational and experimental errors with re-design rules to simulate alternative future test and redesign outcomes to form a probabilistic estimate of the reliability and cost for a given design. Further, it was explored how modeling a future test and redesign provides a company an opportunity to balance development costs versus performance by simultaneously designing the design and the post-test redesign rules during the initial design stage. The second area of this research considers the use of dynamic local surrogates, or surrogate-based agents, to locate multiple candidate designs. Surrogate-based global optimization algorithms often require search in multiple candidate regions of design space, expending most of the computation needed to define multiple alternate designs. Thus, focusing on solely locating the best design may be wasteful. We extended adaptive sampling surrogate techniques to locate multiple optima by building local surrogates in sub-regions of the design space to identify optima. The efficiency of this method was studied, and the method was compared to other surrogate-based optimization methods that aim to locate the global optimum using two two-dimensional test functions, a six-dimensional test function, and a five-dimensional engineering example.

Toward accurate and precise estimates of lion density.

PubMed

Elliot, Nicholas B; Gopalaswamy, Arjun M

2017-08-01

Reliable estimates of animal density are fundamental to understanding ecological processes and population dynamics. Furthermore, their accuracy is vital to conservation because wildlife authorities rely on estimates to make decisions. However, it is notoriously difficult to accurately estimate density for wide-ranging carnivores that occur at low densities. In recent years, significant progress has been made in density estimation of Asian carnivores, but the methods have not been widely adapted to African carnivores, such as lions (Panthera leo). Although abundance indices for lions may produce poor inferences, they continue to be used to estimate density and inform management and policy. We used sighting data from a 3-month survey and adapted a Bayesian spatially explicit capture-recapture (SECR) model to estimate spatial lion density in the Maasai Mara National Reserve and surrounding conservancies in Kenya. Our unstructured spatial capture-recapture sampling design incorporated search effort to explicitly estimate detection probability and density on a fine spatial scale, making our approach robust in the context of varying detection probabilities. Overall posterior mean lion density was estimated to be 17.08 (posterior SD 1.310) lions >1 year old/100 km 2 , and the sex ratio was estimated at 2.2 females to 1 male. Our modeling framework and narrow posterior SD demonstrate that SECR methods can produce statistically rigorous and precise estimates of population parameters, and we argue that they should be favored over less reliable abundance indices. Furthermore, our approach is flexible enough to incorporate different data types, which enables robust population estimates over relatively short survey periods in a variety of systems. Trend analyses are essential to guide conservation decisions but are frequently based on surveys of differing reliability. We therefore call for a unified framework to assess lion numbers in key populations to improve management and policy decisions. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

Reliability Stress-Strength Models for Dependent Observations with Applications in Clinical Trials

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kushary, Debashis; Kulkarni, Pandurang M.

1995-01-01

We consider the applications of stress-strength models in studies involving clinical trials. When studying the effects and side effects of certain procedures (treatments), it is often the case that observations are correlated due to subject effect, repeated measurements and observing many characteristics simultaneously. We develop maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) and uniform minimum variance unbiased estimator (UMVUE) of the reliability which in clinical trial studies could be considered as the chances of increased side effects due to a particular procedure compared to another. The results developed apply to both univariate and multivariate situations. Also, for the univariate situations we develop simple to use lower confidence bounds for the reliability. Further, we consider the cases when both stress and strength constitute time dependent processes. We define the future reliability and obtain methods of constructing lower confidence bounds for this reliability. Finally, we conduct simulation studies to evaluate all the procedures developed and also to compare the MLE and the UMVUE.

Validity and reliability of a simple, low cost measure to quantify children’s dietary intake in afterschool settings

PubMed Central

Davison, Kirsten K.; Austin, S. Bryn; Giles, Catherine; Cradock, Angie L.; Lee, Rebekka M.; Gortmaker, Steven L.

2017-01-01

Interest in evaluating and improving children’s diets in afterschool settings has grown, necessitating the development of feasible yet valid measures for capturing children’s intake in such settings. This study’s purpose was to test the criterion validity and cost of three unobtrusive visual estimation methods compared to a plate-weighing method: direct on-site observation using a 4-category rating scale and off-site rating of digital photographs taken on-site using 4- and 10-category scales. Participants were 111 children in grades 1–6 attending four afterschool programs in Boston, MA in December 2011. Researchers observed and photographed 174 total snack meals consumed across two days at each program. Visual estimates of consumption were compared to weighed estimates (the criterion measure) using intra-class correlations. All three methods were highly correlated with the criterion measure, ranging from 0.92–0.94 for total calories consumed, 0.86–0.94 for consumption of pre-packaged beverages, 0.90–0.93 for consumption of fruits/vegetables, and 0.92–0.96 for consumption of grains. For water, which was not pre-portioned, coefficients ranged from 0.47–0.52. The photographic methods also demonstrated excellent inter-rater reliability: 0.84–0.92 for the 4-point and 0.92–0.95 for the 10-point scale. The costs of the methods for estimating intake ranged from $0.62 per observation for the on-site direct visual method to $0.95 per observation for the criterion measure. This study demonstrates that feasible, inexpensive methods can validly and reliably measure children’s dietary intake in afterschool settings. Improving precision in measures of children’s dietary intake can reduce the likelihood of spurious or null findings in future studies. PMID:25596895

Examination of the reliability of the crash modification factors using empirical Bayes method with resampling technique.

PubMed

Wang, Jung-Han; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed; Wang, Ling

2017-07-01

There have been plenty of studies intended to use different methods, for example, empirical Bayes before-after methods, to get accurate estimation of CMFs. All of them have different assumptions toward crash count if there was no treatment. Additionally, another major assumption is that multiple sites share the same true CMF. Under this assumption, the CMF at an individual intersection is randomly drawn from a normally distributed population of CMFs at all intersections. Since CMFs are non-zero values, the population of all CMFs might not follow normal distributions, and even if it does, the true mean of CMFs at some intersections may be different from that at others. Therefore, a bootstrap method based on before-after empirical Bayes theory was proposed to estimate CMFs, but it did not make distributional assumptions. This bootstrap procedure has the added benefit of producing a measure of CMF stability. Furthermore, based on the bootstrapped CMF, a new CMF precision rating method was proposed to evaluate the reliability of CMFs. This study chose 29 urban four-legged intersections as treated sites, and their controls were changed from stop-controlled to signal-controlled. Meanwhile, 124 urban four-legged stop-controlled intersections were selected as reference sites. At first, different safety performance functions (SPFs) were applied to five crash categories, and it was found that each crash category had different optimal SPF form. Then, the CMFs of these five crash categories were estimated using the bootstrap empirical Bayes method. The results of the bootstrapped method showed that signalization significantly decreased Angle+Left-Turn crashes, and its CMF had the highest precision. While, the CMF for Rear-End crashes was unreliable. For KABCO, KABC, and KAB crashes, their CMFs were proved to be reliable for the majority of intersections, but the estimated effect of signalization may be not accurate at some sites. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The reliability of three-dimensional scapular attitudes in healthy people and people with shoulder impingement syndrome

PubMed Central

Roy, Jean-Sébastien; Moffet, Hélène; Hébert, Luc J; St-Vincent, Guy; McFadyen, Bradford J

2007-01-01

Background Abnormal scapular displacements during arm elevation have been observed in people with shoulder impingement syndrome. These abnormal scapular displacements were evaluated using different methods and instruments allowing a 3-dimensional representation of the scapular kinematics. The validity and the intrasession reliability have been shown for the majority of these methods for healthy people. However, the intersession reliability on healthy people and people with impaired shoulders is not well documented. This measurement property needs to be assessed before using such methods in longitudinal comparative studies. The objective of this study is to evaluate the intra and intersession reliability of 3-dimensional scapular attitudes measured at different arm positions in healthy people and to explore the same measurement properties in people with shoulder impingement syndrome using the Optotrak Probing System. Methods Three-dimensional scapular attitudes were measured twice (test and retest interspaced by one week) on fifteen healthy subjects (mean age 37.3 years) and eight subjects with subacromial shoulder impingement syndrome (mean age 46.1 years) in three arm positions (arm at rest, 70° of humerothoracic flexion and 90° of humerothoracic abduction) using the Optotrak Probing System. Two different methods of calculation of 3-dimensional scapular attitudes were used: relative to the position of the scapula at rest and relative to the trunk. Intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) and standard error of measure (SEM) were used to estimate intra and intersession reliability. Results For both groups, the reliability of the three-dimensional scapular attitudes for elevation positions was very good during the same session (ICCs from 0.84 to 0.99; SEM from 0.6° to 1.9°) and good to very good between sessions (ICCs from 0.62 to 0.97; SEM from 1.2° to 4.2°) when using the method of calculation relative to the trunk. Higher levels of intersession reliability were found for the method of calculation relative to the trunk in anterior-posterior tilting at 70° of flexion compared to the method of calculation relative to the scapula at rest. Conclusion The estimation of three-dimensional scapular attitudes using the method of calculation relative to the trunk is reproducible in the three arm positions evaluated and can be used to document the scapular behavior. PMID:17584933

Assessing the reliability of FTIR spectroscopy measurements and validity of bioelectrical impedance analysis as a surrogate measure of body composition among children and adolescents aged 8-19 years attending schools in Kampala, Uganda.

PubMed

Ndagire, Catherine T; Muyonga, John H; Isabirye, Dan; Odur, Benard; Somda, Serge M A; Bukenya, Richard; Andrade, Juan E; Nakimbugwe, Dorothy

2018-06-04

Accurate measurement of body composition in children and adolescents is important as the quantities of fat and fat-free mass have implications for health risk. The objectives of the present study were: to determine the reliability of Fourier Transform Infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) measurements and; compare the Fat Mass (FM), Fat Free Mass (FFM) and body fat percentage (%BF) values determined by bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) to those determined by deuterium dilution method (DDM) to identify correlations and agreement between the two methods. A cross-sectional study was conducted among 203 children and adolescents aged 8-19 years attending schools in Kampala city, Uganda. Pearson product-moment correlation at 5% significance level was considered for assessing correlations. Bland Altman analysis was used to examine the agreement between of FTIR measurements and between estimates by DDM and BIA.. Reliability of measurements was determined by Cronbach's alpha. There was good agreement between the in vivo D 2 O saliva enrichment measurements at 3 and 4 h among the studied age groups based on Bland-Altman plots. Cronbach's alpha revealed that measurements of D 2 O saliva enrichment had very good reliability. For children and young adolescents, DDM and BIA gave similar estimates of FFM, FM, and %BF. Among older adolescents, BIA significantly over-estimated FFM and significantly under-estimated FM and %BF compared to estimates by DDM. The correlation between FFM, FM and %BF estimates by DDM and BIA was high and significant among young and older adolescents and for FFM among children. Reliability of the FTIR spectroscopy measurements was very good among the studied population. BIA is suitable for assessing body composition among children (8-9 years) and young adolescents (10-14 years) but not among older adolescents (15-19 years) in Uganda. The body composition measurements of older adolescents determined by DDM can be predicted using those provided by BIA using population-specific regression equations.

Height intercept for estimating site index in young ponderosa pine plantations and natural stands

Treesearch

William W. Oliver

1972-01-01

Site index is difficult to estimate with any reliability in ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Laws.) stands below 20 yeas old. A method of estimating site index based on 4-year height intercepts (total length of the first four internodes above breast height) is described. Equations based on two sets of published site-index curves were developed. They...

Estimating Available Fuel Weight Consumed by Prescribed Fires in the South

Treesearch

Walter A. Hough

1978-01-01

A method is proposed for estimating the weight of fuel burned (available fuel) by prescribed fires in southern pine stands. Weights of available fuel in litter alone and in litter plus understory materials can be estimated. Prediction equations were developed by regression analysis of data from a variety of locations and stand conditions. They are most reliable for...

A Comparison of Factor Score Estimation Methods in the Presence of Missing Data: Reliability and an Application to Nicotine Dependence

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Estabrook, Ryne; Neale, Michael

2013-01-01

Factor score estimation is a controversial topic in psychometrics, and the estimation of factor scores from exploratory factor models has historically received a great deal of attention. However, both confirmatory factor models and the existence of missing data have generally been ignored in this debate. This article presents a simulation study…

System reliability approaches for advanced propulsion system structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cruse, T. A.; Mahadevan, S.

1991-01-01

This paper identifies significant issues that pertain to the estimation and use of system reliability in the design of advanced propulsion system structures. Linkages between the reliabilities of individual components and their effect on system design issues such as performance, cost, availability, and certification are examined. The need for system reliability computation to address the continuum nature of propulsion system structures and synergistic progressive damage modes has been highlighted. Available system reliability models are observed to apply only to discrete systems. Therefore a sequential structural reanalysis procedure is formulated to rigorously compute the conditional dependencies between various failure modes. The method is developed in a manner that supports both top-down and bottom-up analyses in system reliability.

Standard setting: comparison of two methods.

PubMed

George, Sanju; Haque, M Sayeed; Oyebode, Femi

2006-09-14

The outcome of assessments is determined by the standard-setting method used. There is a wide range of standard-setting methods and the two used most extensively in undergraduate medical education in the UK are the norm-reference and the criterion-reference methods. The aims of the study were to compare these two standard-setting methods for a multiple-choice question examination and to estimate the test-retest and inter-rater reliability of the modified Angoff method. The norm-reference method of standard-setting (mean minus 1 SD) was applied to the 'raw' scores of 78 4th-year medical students on a multiple-choice examination (MCQ). Two panels of raters also set the standard using the modified Angoff method for the same multiple-choice question paper on two occasions (6 months apart). We compared the pass/fail rates derived from the norm reference and the Angoff methods and also assessed the test-retest and inter-rater reliability of the modified Angoff method. The pass rate with the norm-reference method was 85% (66/78) and that by the Angoff method was 100% (78 out of 78). The percentage agreement between Angoff method and norm-reference was 78% (95% CI 69% - 87%). The modified Angoff method had an inter-rater reliability of 0.81-0.82 and a test-retest reliability of 0.59-0.74. There were significant differences in the outcomes of these two standard-setting methods, as shown by the difference in the proportion of candidates that passed and failed the assessment. The modified Angoff method was found to have good inter-rater reliability and moderate test-retest reliability.

Training and Maintaining System-Wide Reliability in Outcome Management.

PubMed

Barwick, Melanie A; Urajnik, Diana J; Moore, Julia E

2014-01-01

The Child and Adolescent Functional Assessment Scale (CAFAS) is widely used for outcome management, for providing real time client and program level data, and the monitoring of evidence-based practices. Methods of reliability training and the assessment of rater drift are critical for service decision-making within organizations and systems of care. We assessed two approaches for CAFAS training: external technical assistance and internal technical assistance. To this end, we sampled 315 practitioners trained by external technical assistance approach from 2,344 Ontario practitioners who had achieved reliability on the CAFAS. To assess the internal technical assistance approach as a reliable alternative training method, 140 practitioners trained internally were selected from the same pool of certified raters. Reliabilities were high for both practitioners trained by external technical assistance and internal technical assistance approaches (.909-.995, .915-.997, respectively). 1 and 3-year estimates showed some drift on several scales. High and consistent reliabilities over time and training method has implications for CAFAS training of behavioral health care practitioners, and the maintenance of CAFAS as a global outcome management tool in systems of care.

Lifetime Reliability Evaluation of Structural Ceramic Parts with the CARES/LIFE Computer Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nemeth, Noel N.; Powers, Lynn M.; Janosik, Lesley A.; Gyekenyesi, John P.

1993-01-01

The computer program CARES/LIFE calculates the time-dependent reliability of monolithic ceramic components subjected to thermomechanical and/or proof test loading. This program is an extension of the CARES (Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures) computer program. CARES/LIFE accounts for the phenomenon of subcritical crack growth (SCG) by utilizing the power law, Paris law, or Walker equation. The two-parameter Weibull cumulative distribution function is used to characterize the variation in component strength. The effects of multiaxial stresses are modeled using either the principle of independent action (PIA), Weibull's normal stress averaging method (NSA), or Batdorf's theory. Inert strength and fatigue parameters are estimated from rupture strength data of naturally flawed specimens loaded in static, dynamic, or cyclic fatigue. Two example problems demonstrating cyclic fatigue parameter estimation and component reliability analysis with proof testing are included.

Method-independent, Computationally Frugal Convergence Testing for Sensitivity Analysis Techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mai, Juliane; Tolson, Bryan

2017-04-01

The increasing complexity and runtime of environmental models lead to the current situation that the calibration of all model parameters or the estimation of all of their uncertainty is often computationally infeasible. Hence, techniques to determine the sensitivity of model parameters are used to identify most important parameters or model processes. All subsequent model calibrations or uncertainty estimation procedures focus then only on these subsets of parameters and are hence less computational demanding. While the examination of the convergence of calibration and uncertainty methods is state-of-the-art, the convergence of the sensitivity methods is usually not checked. If any, bootstrapping of the sensitivity results is used to determine the reliability of the estimated indexes. Bootstrapping, however, might as well become computationally expensive in case of large model outputs and a high number of bootstraps. We, therefore, present a Model Variable Augmentation (MVA) approach to check the convergence of sensitivity indexes without performing any additional model run. This technique is method- and model-independent. It can be applied either during the sensitivity analysis (SA) or afterwards. The latter case enables the checking of already processed sensitivity indexes. To demonstrate the method independency of the convergence testing method, we applied it to three widely used, global SA methods: the screening method known as Morris method or Elementary Effects (Morris 1991, Campolongo et al., 2000), the variance-based Sobol' method (Solbol' 1993, Saltelli et al. 2010) and a derivative-based method known as Parameter Importance index (Goehler et al. 2013). The new convergence testing method is first scrutinized using 12 analytical benchmark functions (Cuntz & Mai et al. 2015) where the true indexes of aforementioned three methods are known. This proof of principle shows that the method reliably determines the uncertainty of the SA results when different budgets are used for the SA. Subsequently, we focus on the model-independency by testing the frugal method using the hydrologic model mHM (www.ufz.de/mhm) with about 50 model parameters. The results show that the new frugal method is able to test the convergence and therefore the reliability of SA results in an efficient way. The appealing feature of this new technique is the necessity of no further model evaluation and therefore enables checking of already processed (and published) sensitivity results. This is one step towards reliable and transferable, published sensitivity results.

A Squeezed Artificial Neural Network for the Symbolic Network Reliability Functions of Binary-State Networks.

PubMed

Yeh, Wei-Chang

Network reliability is an important index to the provision of useful information for decision support in the modern world. There is always a need to calculate symbolic network reliability functions (SNRFs) due to dynamic and rapid changes in network parameters. In this brief, the proposed squeezed artificial neural network (SqANN) approach uses the Monte Carlo simulation to estimate the corresponding reliability of a given designed matrix from the Box-Behnken design, and then the Taguchi method is implemented to find the appropriate number of neurons and activation functions of the hidden layer and the output layer in ANN to evaluate SNRFs. According to the experimental results of the benchmark networks, the comparison appears to support the superiority of the proposed SqANN method over the traditional ANN-based approach with at least 16.6% improvement in the median absolute deviation in the cost of extra 2 s on average for all experiments.Network reliability is an important index to the provision of useful information for decision support in the modern world. There is always a need to calculate symbolic network reliability functions (SNRFs) due to dynamic and rapid changes in network parameters. In this brief, the proposed squeezed artificial neural network (SqANN) approach uses the Monte Carlo simulation to estimate the corresponding reliability of a given designed matrix from the Box-Behnken design, and then the Taguchi method is implemented to find the appropriate number of neurons and activation functions of the hidden layer and the output layer in ANN to evaluate SNRFs. According to the experimental results of the benchmark networks, the comparison appears to support the superiority of the proposed SqANN method over the traditional ANN-based approach with at least 16.6% improvement in the median absolute deviation in the cost of extra 2 s on average for all experiments.

Statistical control in hydrologic forecasting.

Treesearch

H.G. Wilm

1950-01-01

With rapidly growing development and uses of water, a correspondingly great demand has developed for advance estimates of the volumes or rates of flow which are supplied by streams. Therefore much attention is being devoted to hydrologic forecasting, and numerous methods have been tested in efforts to make increasingly reliable estimates of future supplies.

Evaluating the Reliability, Validity, and Usefulness of Education Cost Studies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Baker, Bruce D.

2006-01-01

Recent studies that purport to estimate the costs of constitutionally adequate education have been described as either a "gold standard" that should guide legislative school finance policy design and judicial evaluation, or as pure "alchemy." Methods for estimating the cost of constitutionally adequate education can be roughly…

Prediction of shear wave velocity using empirical correlations and artificial intelligence methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maleki, Shahoo; Moradzadeh, Ali; Riabi, Reza Ghavami; Gholami, Raoof; Sadeghzadeh, Farhad

2014-06-01

Good understanding of mechanical properties of rock formations is essential during the development and production phases of a hydrocarbon reservoir. Conventionally, these properties are estimated from the petrophysical logs with compression and shear sonic data being the main input to the correlations. This is while in many cases the shear sonic data are not acquired during well logging, which may be for cost saving purposes. In this case, shear wave velocity is estimated using available empirical correlations or artificial intelligent methods proposed during the last few decades. In this paper, petrophysical logs corresponding to a well drilled in southern part of Iran were used to estimate the shear wave velocity using empirical correlations as well as two robust artificial intelligence methods knows as Support Vector Regression (SVR) and Back-Propagation Neural Network (BPNN). Although the results obtained by SVR seem to be reliable, the estimated values are not very precise and considering the importance of shear sonic data as the input into different models, this study suggests acquiring shear sonic data during well logging. It is important to note that the benefits of having reliable shear sonic data for estimation of rock formation mechanical properties will compensate the possible additional costs for acquiring a shear log.

On-board adaptive model for state of charge estimation of lithium-ion batteries based on Kalman filter with proportional integral-based error adjustment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Jingwen; Dong, Guangzhong; Chen, Zonghai

2017-10-01

With the rapid development of battery-powered electric vehicles, the lithium-ion battery plays a critical role in the reliability of vehicle system. In order to provide timely management and protection for battery systems, it is necessary to develop a reliable battery model and accurate battery parameters estimation to describe battery dynamic behaviors. Therefore, this paper focuses on an on-board adaptive model for state-of-charge (SOC) estimation of lithium-ion batteries. Firstly, a first-order equivalent circuit battery model is employed to describe battery dynamic characteristics. Then, the recursive least square algorithm and the off-line identification method are used to provide good initial values of model parameters to ensure filter stability and reduce the convergence time. Thirdly, an extended-Kalman-filter (EKF) is applied to on-line estimate battery SOC and model parameters. Considering that the EKF is essentially a first-order Taylor approximation of battery model, which contains inevitable model errors, thus, a proportional integral-based error adjustment technique is employed to improve the performance of EKF method and correct model parameters. Finally, the experimental results on lithium-ion batteries indicate that the proposed EKF with proportional integral-based error adjustment method can provide robust and accurate battery model and on-line parameter estimation.

Estimation of design floods in ungauged catchments using a regional index flood method. A case study of Lake Victoria Basin in Kenya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nobert, Joel; Mugo, Margaret; Gadain, Hussein

Reliable estimation of flood magnitudes corresponding to required return periods, vital for structural design purposes, is impacted by lack of hydrological data in the study area of Lake Victoria Basin in Kenya. Use of regional information, derived from data at gauged sites and regionalized for use at any location within a homogenous region, would improve the reliability of the design flood estimation. Therefore, the regional index flood method has been applied. Based on data from 14 gauged sites, a delineation of the basin into two homogenous regions was achieved using elevation variation (90-m DEM), spatial annual rainfall pattern and Principal Component Analysis of seasonal rainfall patterns (from 94 rainfall stations). At site annual maximum series were modelled using the Log normal (LN) (3P), Log Logistic Distribution (LLG), Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) and Log Pearson Type 3 (LP3) distributions. The parameters of the distributions were estimated using the method of probability weighted moments. Goodness of fit tests were applied and the GEV was identified as the most appropriate model for each site. Based on the GEV model, flood quantiles were estimated and regional frequency curves derived from the averaged at site growth curves. Using the least squares regression method, relationships were developed between the index flood, which is defined as the Mean Annual Flood (MAF) and catchment characteristics. The relationships indicated area, mean annual rainfall and altitude were the three significant variables that greatly influence the index flood. Thereafter, estimates of flood magnitudes in ungauged catchments within a homogenous region were estimated from the derived equations for index flood and quantiles from the regional curves. These estimates will improve flood risk estimation and to support water management and engineering decisions and actions.

Online estimation of lithium-ion battery capacity using sparse Bayesian learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Chao; Jain, Gaurav; Schmidt, Craig; Strief, Carrie; Sullivan, Melani

2015-09-01

Lithium-ion (Li-ion) rechargeable batteries are used as one of the major energy storage components for implantable medical devices. Reliability of Li-ion batteries used in these devices has been recognized as of high importance from a broad range of stakeholders, including medical device manufacturers, regulatory agencies, patients and physicians. To ensure a Li-ion battery operates reliably, it is important to develop health monitoring techniques that accurately estimate the capacity of the battery throughout its life-time. This paper presents a sparse Bayesian learning method that utilizes the charge voltage and current measurements to estimate the capacity of a Li-ion battery used in an implantable medical device. Relevance Vector Machine (RVM) is employed as a probabilistic kernel regression method to learn the complex dependency of the battery capacity on the characteristic features that are extracted from the charge voltage and current measurements. Owing to the sparsity property of RVM, the proposed method generates a reduced-scale regression model that consumes only a small fraction of the CPU time required by a full-scale model, which makes online capacity estimation computationally efficient. 10 years' continuous cycling data and post-explant cycling data obtained from Li-ion prismatic cells are used to verify the performance of the proposed method.

Stable Estimation of a Covariance Matrix Guided by Nuclear Norm Penalties

PubMed Central

Chi, Eric C.; Lange, Kenneth

2014-01-01

Estimation of a covariance matrix or its inverse plays a central role in many statistical methods. For these methods to work reliably, estimated matrices must not only be invertible but also well-conditioned. The current paper introduces a novel prior to ensure a well-conditioned maximum a posteriori (MAP) covariance estimate. The prior shrinks the sample covariance estimator towards a stable target and leads to a MAP estimator that is consistent and asymptotically efficient. Thus, the MAP estimator gracefully transitions towards the sample covariance matrix as the number of samples grows relative to the number of covariates. The utility of the MAP estimator is demonstrated in two standard applications – discriminant analysis and EM clustering – in this sampling regime. PMID:25143662

Revised techniques for estimating peak discharges from channel width in Montana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parrett, Charles; Hull, J.A.; Omang, R.J.

1987-01-01

This study was conducted to develop new estimating equations based on channel width and the updated flood frequency curves of previous investigations. Simple regression equations for estimating peak discharges with recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10 , 25, 50, and 100 years were developed for seven regions in Montana. The standard errors of estimates for the equations that use active channel width as the independent variables ranged from 30% to 87%. The standard errors of estimate for the equations that use bankfull width as the independent variable ranged from 34% to 92%. The smallest standard errors generally occurred in the prediction equations for the 2-yr flood, 5-yr flood, and 10-yr flood, and the largest standard errors occurred in the prediction equations for the 100-yr flood. The equations that use active channel width and the equations that use bankfull width were determined to be about equally reliable in five regions. In the West Region, the equations that use bankfull width were slightly more reliable than those based on active channel width, whereas in the East-Central Region the equations that use active channel width were slightly more reliable than those based on bankfull width. Compared with similar equations previously developed, the standard errors of estimate for the new equations are substantially smaller in three regions and substantially larger in two regions. Limitations on the use of the estimating equations include: (1) The equations are based on stable conditions of channel geometry and prevailing water and sediment discharge; (2) The measurement of channel width requires a site visit, preferably by a person with experience in the method, and involves appreciable measurement errors; (3) Reliability of results from the equations for channel widths beyond the range of definition is unknown. In spite of the limitations, the estimating equations derived in this study are considered to be as reliable as estimating equations based on basin and climatic variables. Because the two types of estimating equations are independent, results from each can be weighted inversely proportional to their variances, and averaged. The weighted average estimate has a variance less than either individual estimate. (Author 's abstract)

Measurement of Postmortem Pupil Size: A New Method with Excellent Reliability and Its Application to Pupil Changes in the Early Postmortem Period.

PubMed

Fleischer, Luise; Sehner, Susanne; Gehl, Axel; Riemer, Martin; Raupach, Tobias; Anders, Sven

2017-05-01

Measurement of postmortem pupil width is a potential component of death time estimation. However, no standardized measurement method has been described. We analyzed a total of 71 digital images for pupil-iris ratio using the software ImageJ. Images were analyzed three times by four different examiners. In addition, serial images from 10 cases were taken between 2 and 50 h postmortem to detect spontaneous pupil changes. Intra- and inter-rater reliability of the method was excellent (ICC > 0.95). The method is observer independent and yields consistent results, and images can be digitally stored and re-evaluated. The method seems highly eligible for forensic and scientific purposes. While statistical analysis of spontaneous pupil changes revealed a significant polynomial of quartic degree for postmortem time (p = 0.001), an obvious pattern was not detected. These results do not indicate suitability of spontaneous pupil changes for forensic death time estimation, as formerly suggested. © 2016 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

Safety assessment of a shallow foundation using the random finite element method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaskórski, Łukasz; Puła, Wojciech

2015-04-01

A complex structure of soil and its random character are reasons why soil modeling is a cumbersome task. Heterogeneity of soil has to be considered even within a homogenous layer of soil. Therefore an estimation of shear strength parameters of soil for the purposes of a geotechnical analysis causes many problems. In applicable standards (Eurocode 7) there is not presented any explicit method of an evaluation of characteristic values of soil parameters. Only general guidelines can be found how these values should be estimated. Hence many approaches of an assessment of characteristic values of soil parameters are presented in literature and can be applied in practice. In this paper, the reliability assessment of a shallow strip footing was conducted using a reliability index β. Therefore some approaches of an estimation of characteristic values of soil properties were compared by evaluating values of reliability index β which can be achieved by applying each of them. Method of Orr and Breysse, Duncan's method, Schneider's method, Schneider's method concerning influence of fluctuation scales and method included in Eurocode 7 were examined. Design values of the bearing capacity based on these approaches were referred to the stochastic bearing capacity estimated by the random finite element method (RFEM). Design values of the bearing capacity were conducted for various widths and depths of a foundation in conjunction with design approaches DA defined in Eurocode. RFEM was presented by Griffiths and Fenton (1993). It combines deterministic finite element method, random field theory and Monte Carlo simulations. Random field theory allows to consider a random character of soil parameters within a homogenous layer of soil. For this purpose a soil property is considered as a separate random variable in every element of a mesh in the finite element method with proper correlation structure between points of given area. RFEM was applied to estimate which theoretical probability distribution fits the empirical probability distribution of bearing capacity basing on 3000 realizations. Assessed probability distribution was applied to compute design values of the bearing capacity and related reliability indices β. Conducted analysis were carried out for a cohesion soil. Hence a friction angle and a cohesion were defined as a random parameters and characterized by two dimensional random fields. A friction angle was described by a bounded distribution as it differs within limited range. While a lognormal distribution was applied in case of a cohesion. Other properties - Young's modulus, Poisson's ratio and unit weight were assumed as deterministic values because they have negligible influence on the stochastic bearing capacity. Griffiths D. V., & Fenton G. A. (1993). Seepage beneath water retaining structures founded on spatially random soil. Géotechnique, 43(6), 577-587.

Application of real-time PCR for total airborne bacterial assessment: Comparison with epifluorescence microscopy and culture-dependent methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rinsoz, Thomas; Duquenne, Philippe; Greff-Mirguet, Guylaine; Oppliger, Anne

Traditional culture-dependent methods to quantify and identify airborne microorganisms are limited by factors such as short-duration sampling times and inability to count non-culturable or non-viable bacteria. Consequently, the quantitative assessment of bioaerosols is often underestimated. Use of the real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction (Q-PCR) to quantify bacteria in environmental samples presents an alternative method, which should overcome this problem. The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance of a real-time Q-PCR assay as a simple and reliable way to quantify the airborne bacterial load within poultry houses and sewage treatment plants, in comparison with epifluorescence microscopy and culture-dependent methods. The estimates of bacterial load that we obtained from real-time PCR and epifluorescence methods, are comparable, however, our analysis of sewage treatment plants indicate these methods give values 270-290 fold greater than those obtained by the "impaction on nutrient agar" method. The culture-dependent method of air impaction on nutrient agar was also inadequate in poultry houses, as was the impinger-culture method, which gave a bacterial load estimate 32-fold lower than obtained by Q-PCR. Real-time quantitative PCR thus proves to be a reliable, discerning, and simple method that could be used to estimate airborne bacterial load in a broad variety of other environments expected to carry high numbers of airborne bacteria.

Estimation of left ventricular mass in conscious dogs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Coleman, Bernell; Cothran, Laval N.; Ison-Franklin, E. L.; Hawthorne, E. W.

1986-01-01

A method for the assessment of the development or the regression of left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) in a conscious instrumented animal is described. First, the single-slice short-axis area-length method for estimating the left-ventricular mass (LVM) and volume (LVV) was validated in 24 formaldehyde-fixed canine hearts, and a regression equation was developed that could be used in the intact animal to correct the sonomicrometrically estimated LVM. The LVM-assessment method, which uses the combined techniques of echocardiography and sonomicrometry (in conjunction with the regression equation), was shown to provide reliable and reproducible day-to-day estimates of LVM and LVV, and to be sensitive enough to detect serial changes during the development of LVH.

Catchment-scale groundwater recharge and vegetation water use efficiency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Troch, P. A. A.; Dwivedi, R.; Liu, T.; Meira, A.; Roy, T.; Valdés-Pineda, R.; Durcik, M.; Arciniega, S.; Brena-Naranjo, J. A.

2017-12-01

Precipitation undergoes a two-step partitioning when it falls on the land surface. At the land surface and in the shallow subsurface, rainfall or snowmelt can either runoff as infiltration/saturation excess or quick subsurface flow. The rest will be stored temporarily in the root zone. From the root zone, water can leave the catchment as evapotranspiration or percolate further and recharge deep storage (e.g. fractured bedrock aquifer). Quantifying the average amount of water that recharges deep storage and sustains low flows is extremely challenging, as we lack reliable methods to quantify this flux at the catchment scale. It was recently shown, however, that for semi-arid catchments in Mexico, an index of vegetation water use efficiency, i.e. the Horton index (HI), could predict deep storage dynamics. Here we test this finding using 247 MOPEX catchments across the conterminous US, including energy-limited catchments. Our results show that the observed HI is indeed a reliable predictor of deep storage dynamics in space and time. We further investigate whether the HI can also predict average recharge rates across the conterminous US. We find that the HI can reliably predict the average recharge rate, estimated from the 50th percentile flow of the flow duration curve. Our results compare favorably with estimates of average recharge rates from the US Geological Survey. Previous research has shown that HI can be reliably estimated based on aridity index, mean slope and mean elevation of a catchment (Voepel et al., 2011). We recalibrated Voepel's model and used it to predict the HI for our 247 catchments. We then used these predicted values of the HI to estimate average recharge rates for our catchments, and compared them with those estimated from observed HI. We find that the accuracies of our predictions based on observed and predicted HI are similar. This provides an estimation method of catchment-scale average recharge rates based on easily derived catchment characteristics, such as climate and topography, and free of discharge measurements.

Estimating the Post-Mortem Interval of skeletonized remains: The use of Infrared spectroscopy and Raman spectro-microscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Creagh, Dudley; Cameron, Alyce

2017-08-01

When skeletonized remains are found it becomes a police task to determine to identify the body and establish the cause of death. It assists investigators if the Post-Mortem Interval (PMI) can be established. Hitherto no reliable qualitative method of estimating the PMI has been found. A quantitative method has yet to be developed. This paper shows that IR spectroscopy and Raman microscopy have the potential to form the basis of a quantitative method.

Evapotranspiration from areas of native vegetation in west-central Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bidlake, W.R.; Woodham, W.M.; Lopez, Miguel Angel

1996-01-01

The micrometeorological methods of energy-balance Bowen ratio and eddy correlation probably are suitable for determining evapotranspiration from unforested sites, but the aerodynamic effects of tall tree canopies need to be considered when the methods are used for forested sites. Potential evapotranspiration methods might not yield reliable estimates of evapotranspiration for all areas of native vegetation. Estimates of annual evapotranspiration ranged from 970 millimeters for a cypress swamp site to 1,060 millimeters for a pine flatwood site.

The reliability of three-dimensional scapular attitudes in healthy people and people with shoulder impingement syndrome.

PubMed

Roy, Jean-Sébastien; Moffet, Hélène; Hébert, Luc J; St-Vincent, Guy; McFadyen, Bradford J

2007-06-21

Abnormal scapular displacements during arm elevation have been observed in people with shoulder impingement syndrome. These abnormal scapular displacements were evaluated using different methods and instruments allowing a 3-dimensional representation of the scapular kinematics. The validity and the intrasession reliability have been shown for the majority of these methods for healthy people. However, the intersession reliability on healthy people and people with impaired shoulders is not well documented. This measurement property needs to be assessed before using such methods in longitudinal comparative studies. The objective of this study is to evaluate the intra and intersession reliability of 3-dimensional scapular attitudes measured at different arm positions in healthy people and to explore the same measurement properties in people with shoulder impingement syndrome using the Optotrak Probing System. Three-dimensional scapular attitudes were measured twice (test and retest interspaced by one week) on fifteen healthy subjects (mean age 37.3 years) and eight subjects with subacromial shoulder impingement syndrome (mean age 46.1 years) in three arm positions (arm at rest, 70 degrees of humerothoracic flexion and 90 degrees of humerothoracic abduction) using the Optotrak Probing System. Two different methods of calculation of 3-dimensional scapular attitudes were used: relative to the position of the scapula at rest and relative to the trunk. Intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) and standard error of measure (SEM) were used to estimate intra and intersession reliability. For both groups, the reliability of the three-dimensional scapular attitudes for elevation positions was very good during the same session (ICCs from 0.84 to 0.99; SEM from 0.6 degrees to 1.9 degrees ) and good to very good between sessions (ICCs from 0.62 to 0.97; SEM from 1.2 degrees to 4.2 degrees ) when using the method of calculation relative to the trunk. Higher levels of intersession reliability were found for the method of calculation relative to the trunk in anterior-posterior tilting at 70 degrees of flexion compared to the method of calculation relative to the scapula at rest. The estimation of three-dimensional scapular attitudes using the method of calculation relative to the trunk is reproducible in the three arm positions evaluated and can be used to document the scapular behavior.

Reliability analysis of composite structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kan, Han-Pin

1992-01-01

A probabilistic static stress analysis methodology has been developed to estimate the reliability of a composite structure. Closed form stress analysis methods are the primary analytical tools used in this methodology. These structural mechanics methods are used to identify independent variables whose variations significantly affect the performance of the structure. Once these variables are identified, scatter in their values is evaluated and statistically characterized. The scatter in applied loads and the structural parameters are then fitted to appropriate probabilistic distribution functions. Numerical integration techniques are applied to compute the structural reliability. The predicted reliability accounts for scatter due to variability in material strength, applied load, fabrication and assembly processes. The influence of structural geometry and mode of failure are also considerations in the evaluation. Example problems are given to illustrate various levels of analytical complexity.

Accurate secondary structure prediction and fold recognition for circular dichroism spectroscopy

PubMed Central

Micsonai, András; Wien, Frank; Kernya, Linda; Lee, Young-Ho; Goto, Yuji; Réfrégiers, Matthieu; Kardos, József

2015-01-01

Circular dichroism (CD) spectroscopy is a widely used technique for the study of protein structure. Numerous algorithms have been developed for the estimation of the secondary structure composition from the CD spectra. These methods often fail to provide acceptable results on α/β-mixed or β-structure–rich proteins. The problem arises from the spectral diversity of β-structures, which has hitherto been considered as an intrinsic limitation of the technique. The predictions are less reliable for proteins of unusual β-structures such as membrane proteins, protein aggregates, and amyloid fibrils. Here, we show that the parallel/antiparallel orientation and the twisting of the β-sheets account for the observed spectral diversity. We have developed a method called β-structure selection (BeStSel) for the secondary structure estimation that takes into account the twist of β-structures. This method can reliably distinguish parallel and antiparallel β-sheets and accurately estimates the secondary structure for a broad range of proteins. Moreover, the secondary structure components applied by the method are characteristic to the protein fold, and thus the fold can be predicted to the level of topology in the CATH classification from a single CD spectrum. By constructing a web server, we offer a general tool for a quick and reliable structure analysis using conventional CD or synchrotron radiation CD (SRCD) spectroscopy for the protein science research community. The method is especially useful when X-ray or NMR techniques fail. Using BeStSel on data collected by SRCD spectroscopy, we investigated the structure of amyloid fibrils of various disease-related proteins and peptides. PMID:26038575

Differential reliability : probabilistic engineering applied to wood members in bending-tension

Treesearch

Stanley K. Suddarth; Frank E. Woeste; William L. Galligan

1978-01-01

Reliability analysis is a mathematical technique for appraising the design and materials of engineered structures to provide a quantitative estimate of probability of failure. Two or more cases which are similar in all respects but one may be analyzed by this method; the contrast between the probabilities of failure for these cases allows strong analytical focus on the...

The Reliability and Validity of Using Regression Residuals to Measure Institutional Effectiveness in Promoting Degree Completion

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Horn, Aaron S.; Lee, Giljae

2016-01-01

A relatively simple way of measuring institutional effectiveness in relation to degree completion is to estimate the difference between an actual and predicted graduation rate, but the reliability and validity of this method have not been thoroughly examined. Longitudinal data were obtained from IPEDS for both public and private not-for-profit…

Benchmarking passive seismic methods of estimating the depth of velocity interfaces down to ~300 m

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Czarnota, Karol; Gorbatov, Alexei

2016-04-01

In shallow passive seismology it is generally accepted that the spatial autocorrelation (SPAC) method is more robust than the horizontal-over-vertical spectral ratio (HVSR) method at resolving the depth to surface-wave velocity (Vs) interfaces. Here we present results of a field test of these two methods over ten drill sites in western Victoria, Australia. The target interface is the base of Cenozoic unconsolidated to semi-consolidated clastic and/or carbonate sediments of the Murray Basin, which overlie Paleozoic crystalline rocks. Depths of this interface intersected in drill holes are between ~27 m and ~300 m. Seismometers were deployed in a three-arm spiral array, with a radius of 250 m, consisting of 13 Trillium Compact 120 s broadband instruments. Data were acquired at each site for 7-21 hours. The Vs architecture beneath each site was determined through nonlinear inversion of HVSR and SPAC data using the neighbourhood algorithm, implemented in the geopsy modelling package (Wathelet, 2005, GRL v35). The HVSR technique yielded depth estimates of the target interface (Vs > 1000 m/s) generally within ±20% error. Successful estimates were even obtained at a site with an inverted velocity profile, where Quaternary basalts overlie Neogene sediments which in turn overlie the target basement. Half of the SPAC estimates showed significantly higher errors than were obtained using HVSR. Joint inversion provided the most reliable estimates but was unstable at three sites. We attribute the surprising success of HVSR over SPAC to a low content of transient signals within the seismic record caused by low levels of anthropogenic noise at the benchmark sites. At a few sites SPAC waveform curves showed clear overtones suggesting that more reliable SPAC estimates may be obtained utilizing a multi-modal inversion. Nevertheless, our study indicates that reliable basin thickness estimates in the Australian conditions tested can be obtained utilizing HVSR data from a single seismometer, without a priori knowledge of the surface-wave velocity of the basin material, thereby negating the need to deploy cumbersome arrays.

Using remote sensing and GIS techniques to estimate discharge and recharge fluxes for the Death Valley regional groundwater flow system, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

D'Agnese, F. A.; Faunt, C.C.; Turner, A.K.; ,

1996-01-01

The recharge and discharge components of the Death Valley regional groundwater flow system were defined by techniques that integrated disparate data types to develop a spatially complex representation of near-surface hydrological processes. Image classification methods were applied to multispectral satellite data to produce a vegetation map. The vegetation map was combined with ancillary data in a GIS to delineate different types of wetlands, phreatophytes and wet playa areas. Existing evapotranspiration-rate estimates were used to calculate discharge volumes for these area. An empirical method of groundwater recharge estimation was modified to incorporate data describing soil-moisture conditions, and a recharge potential map was produced. These discharge and recharge maps were readily converted to data arrays for numerical modelling codes. Inverse parameter estimation techniques also used these data to evaluate the reliability and sensitivity of estimated values.The recharge and discharge components of the Death Valley regional groundwater flow system were defined by remote sensing and GIS techniques that integrated disparate data types to develop a spatially complex representation of near-surface hydrological processes. Image classification methods were applied to multispectral satellite data to produce a vegetation map. This map provided a basis for subsequent evapotranspiration and infiltration estimations. The vegetation map was combined with ancillary data in a GIS to delineate different types of wetlands, phreatophytes and wet playa areas. Existing evapotranspiration-rate estimates were then used to calculate discharge volumes for these areas. A previously used empirical method of groundwater recharge estimation was modified by GIS methods to incorporate data describing soil-moisture conditions, and a recharge potential map was produced. These discharge and recharge maps were readily converted to data arrays for numerical modelling codes. Inverse parameter estimation techniques also used these data to evaluate the reliability and sensitivity of estimated values.

A novel technique for fetal heart rate estimation from Doppler ultrasound signal

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background The currently used fetal monitoring instrumentation that is based on Doppler ultrasound technique provides the fetal heart rate (FHR) signal with limited accuracy. It is particularly noticeable as significant decrease of clinically important feature - the variability of FHR signal. The aim of our work was to develop a novel efficient technique for processing of the ultrasound signal, which could estimate the cardiac cycle duration with accuracy comparable to a direct electrocardiography. Methods We have proposed a new technique which provides the true beat-to-beat values of the FHR signal through multiple measurement of a given cardiac cycle in the ultrasound signal. The method consists in three steps: the dynamic adjustment of autocorrelation window, the adaptive autocorrelation peak detection and determination of beat-to-beat intervals. The estimated fetal heart rate values and calculated indices describing variability of FHR, were compared to the reference data obtained from the direct fetal electrocardiogram, as well as to another method for FHR estimation. Results The results revealed that our method increases the accuracy in comparison to currently used fetal monitoring instrumentation, and thus enables to calculate reliable parameters describing the variability of FHR. Relating these results to the other method for FHR estimation we showed that in our approach a much lower number of measured cardiac cycles was rejected as being invalid. Conclusions The proposed method for fetal heart rate determination on a beat-to-beat basis offers a high accuracy of the heart interval measurement enabling reliable quantitative assessment of the FHR variability, at the same time reducing the number of invalid cardiac cycle measurements. PMID:21999764

NDE reliability and probability of detection (POD) evolution and paradigm shift

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Singh, Surendra

2014-02-18

The subject of NDE Reliability and POD has gone through multiple phases since its humble beginning in the late 1960s. This was followed by several programs including the important one nicknamed “Have Cracks – Will Travel” or in short “Have Cracks” by Lockheed Georgia Company for US Air Force during 1974–1978. This and other studies ultimately led to a series of developments in the field of reliability and POD starting from the introduction of fracture mechanics and Damaged Tolerant Design (DTD) to statistical framework by Bernes and Hovey in 1981 for POD estimation to MIL-STD HDBK 1823 (1999) and 1823Amore » (2009). During the last decade, various groups and researchers have further studied the reliability and POD using Model Assisted POD (MAPOD), Simulation Assisted POD (SAPOD), and applying Bayesian Statistics. All and each of these developments had one objective, i.e., improving accuracy of life prediction in components that to a large extent depends on the reliability and capability of NDE methods. Therefore, it is essential to have a reliable detection and sizing of large flaws in components. Currently, POD is used for studying reliability and capability of NDE methods, though POD data offers no absolute truth regarding NDE reliability, i.e., system capability, effects of flaw morphology, and quantifying the human factors. Furthermore, reliability and POD have been reported alike in meaning but POD is not NDE reliability. POD is a subset of the reliability that consists of six phases: 1) samples selection using DOE, 2) NDE equipment setup and calibration, 3) System Measurement Evaluation (SME) including Gage Repeatability and Reproducibility (Gage R and R) and Analysis Of Variance (ANOVA), 4) NDE system capability and electronic and physical saturation, 5) acquiring and fitting data to a model, and data analysis, and 6) POD estimation. This paper provides an overview of all major POD milestones for the last several decades and discuss rationale for using Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME), MAPOD, SAPOD, and Bayesian statistics for studying controllable and non-controllable variables including human factors for estimating POD. Another objective is to list gaps between “hoped for” versus validated or fielded failed hardware.« less

An improved swarm optimization for parameter estimation and biological model selection.

PubMed

Abdullah, Afnizanfaizal; Deris, Safaai; Mohamad, Mohd Saberi; Anwar, Sohail

2013-01-01

One of the key aspects of computational systems biology is the investigation on the dynamic biological processes within cells. Computational models are often required to elucidate the mechanisms and principles driving the processes because of the nonlinearity and complexity. The models usually incorporate a set of parameters that signify the physical properties of the actual biological systems. In most cases, these parameters are estimated by fitting the model outputs with the corresponding experimental data. However, this is a challenging task because the available experimental data are frequently noisy and incomplete. In this paper, a new hybrid optimization method is proposed to estimate these parameters from the noisy and incomplete experimental data. The proposed method, called Swarm-based Chemical Reaction Optimization, integrates the evolutionary searching strategy employed by the Chemical Reaction Optimization, into the neighbouring searching strategy of the Firefly Algorithm method. The effectiveness of the method was evaluated using a simulated nonlinear model and two biological models: synthetic transcriptional oscillators, and extracellular protease production models. The results showed that the accuracy and computational speed of the proposed method were better than the existing Differential Evolution, Firefly Algorithm and Chemical Reaction Optimization methods. The reliability of the estimated parameters was statistically validated, which suggests that the model outputs produced by these parameters were valid even when noisy and incomplete experimental data were used. Additionally, Akaike Information Criterion was employed to evaluate the model selection, which highlighted the capability of the proposed method in choosing a plausible model based on the experimental data. In conclusion, this paper presents the effectiveness of the proposed method for parameter estimation and model selection problems using noisy and incomplete experimental data. This study is hoped to provide a new insight in developing more accurate and reliable biological models based on limited and low quality experimental data.

Proposal for a standardised identification of the mono-exponential terminal phase for orally administered drugs.

PubMed

Scheerans, Christian; Derendorf, Hartmut; Kloft, Charlotte

2008-04-01

The area under the plasma concentration-time curve from time zero to infinity (AUC(0-inf)) is generally considered to be the most appropriate measure of total drug exposure for bioavailability/bioequivalence studies of orally administered drugs. However, the lack of a standardised method for identifying the mono-exponential terminal phase of the concentration-time curve causes variability for the estimated AUC(0-inf). The present investigation introduces a simple method, called the two times t(max) method (TTT method) to reliably identify the mono-exponential terminal phase in the case of oral administration. The new method was tested by Monte Carlo simulation in Excel and compared with the adjusted r squared algorithm (ARS algorithm) frequently used in pharmacokinetic software programs. Statistical diagnostics of three different scenarios, each with 10,000 hypothetical patients showed that the new method provided unbiased average AUC(0-inf) estimates for orally administered drugs with a monophasic concentration-time curve post maximum concentration. In addition, the TTT method generally provided more precise estimates for AUC(0-inf) compared with the ARS algorithm. It was concluded that the TTT method is a most reasonable tool to be used as a standardised method in pharmacokinetic analysis especially bioequivalence studies to reliably identify the mono-exponential terminal phase for orally administered drugs showing a monophasic concentration-time profile.

An adaptive field detection method for bridge scour monitoring using motion-sensing radio transponders (RFIDs).

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-01-01

A comprehensive field detection method is proposed that is aimed at developing advanced capability for : reliable monitoring, inspection and life estimation of bridge infrastructure. The goal is to utilize Motion-Sensing Radio Transponders (RFIDS) on...

Robust Methods for Moderation Analysis with a Two-Level Regression Model.

PubMed

Yang, Miao; Yuan, Ke-Hai

2016-01-01

Moderation analysis has many applications in social sciences. Most widely used estimation methods for moderation analysis assume that errors are normally distributed and homoscedastic. When these assumptions are not met, the results from a classical moderation analysis can be misleading. For more reliable moderation analysis, this article proposes two robust methods with a two-level regression model when the predictors do not contain measurement error. One method is based on maximum likelihood with Student's t distribution and the other is based on M-estimators with Huber-type weights. An algorithm for obtaining the robust estimators is developed. Consistent estimates of standard errors of the robust estimators are provided. The robust approaches are compared against normal-distribution-based maximum likelihood (NML) with respect to power and accuracy of parameter estimates through a simulation study. Results show that the robust approaches outperform NML under various distributional conditions. Application of the robust methods is illustrated through a real data example. An R program is developed and documented to facilitate the application of the robust methods.

Assessing network scale-up estimates for groups most at risk of HIV/AIDS: evidence from a multiple-method study of heavy drug users in Curitiba, Brazil.

PubMed

Salganik, Matthew J; Fazito, Dimitri; Bertoni, Neilane; Abdo, Alexandre H; Mello, Maeve B; Bastos, Francisco I

2011-11-15

One of the many challenges hindering the global response to the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) epidemic is the difficulty of collecting reliable information about the populations most at risk for the disease. Thus, the authors empirically assessed a promising new method for estimating the sizes of most at-risk populations: the network scale-up method. Using 4 different data sources, 2 of which were from other researchers, the authors produced 5 estimates of the number of heavy drug users in Curitiba, Brazil. The authors found that the network scale-up and generalized network scale-up estimators produced estimates 5-10 times higher than estimates made using standard methods (the multiplier method and the direct estimation method using data from 2004 and 2010). Given that equally plausible methods produced such a wide range of results, the authors recommend that additional studies be undertaken to compare estimates based on the scale-up method with those made using other methods. If scale-up-based methods routinely produce higher estimates, this would suggest that scale-up-based methods are inappropriate for populations most at risk of HIV/AIDS or that standard methods may tend to underestimate the sizes of these populations.

A Methodological Approach to Small Area Estimation for the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System

PubMed Central

Xu, Fang; Wallace, Robyn C.; Garvin, William; Greenlund, Kurt J.; Bartoli, William; Ford, Derek; Eke, Paul; Town, G. Machell

2016-01-01

Public health researchers have used a class of statistical methods to calculate prevalence estimates for small geographic areas with few direct observations. Many researchers have used Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) data as a basis for their models. The aims of this study were to 1) describe a new BRFSS small area estimation (SAE) method and 2) investigate the internal and external validity of the BRFSS SAEs it produced. The BRFSS SAE method uses 4 data sets (the BRFSS, the American Community Survey Public Use Microdata Sample, Nielsen Claritas population totals, and the Missouri Census Geographic Equivalency File) to build a single weighted data set. Our findings indicate that internal and external validity tests were successful across many estimates. The BRFSS SAE method is one of several methods that can be used to produce reliable prevalence estimates in small geographic areas. PMID:27418213

Estimating the densities of benzene-derived explosives using atomic volumes.

PubMed

Ghule, Vikas D; Nirwan, Ayushi; Devi, Alka

2018-02-09

The application of average atomic volumes to predict the crystal densities of benzene-derived energetic compounds of general formula C a H b N c O d is presented, along with the reliability of this method. The densities of 119 neutral nitrobenzenes, energetic salts, and cocrystals with diverse compositions were estimated and compared with experimental data. Of the 74 nitrobenzenes for which direct comparisons could be made, the % error in the estimated density was within 0-3% for 54 compounds, 3-5% for 12 compounds, and 5-8% for the remaining 8 compounds. Among 45 energetic salts and cocrystals, the % error in the estimated density was within 0-3% for 25 compounds, 3-5% for 13 compounds, and 5-7.4% for 7 compounds. The absolute error surpassed 0.05 g/cm 3 for 27 of the 119 compounds (22%). The largest errors occurred for compounds containing fused rings and for compounds with three -NH 2 or -OH groups. Overall, the present approach for estimating the densities of benzene-derived explosives with different functional groups was found to be reliable. Graphical abstract Application and reliability of average atom volume in the crystal density prediction of energetic compounds containing benzene ring.

Group search algorithm recovers effective connectivity maps for individuals in homogeneous and heterogeneous samples.

PubMed

Gates, Kathleen M; Molenaar, Peter C M

2012-10-15

At its best, connectivity mapping can offer researchers great insight into how spatially disparate regions of the human brain coordinate activity during brain processing. A recent investigation conducted by Smith and colleagues (2011) on methods for estimating connectivity maps suggested that those which attempt to ascertain the direction of influence among ROIs rarely provide reliable results. Another problem gaining increasing attention is heterogeneity in connectivity maps. Most group-level methods require that the data come from homogeneous samples, and misleading findings may arise from current methods if the connectivity maps for individuals vary across the sample (which is likely the case). The utility of maps resulting from effective connectivity on the individual or group levels is thus diminished because they do not accurately inform researchers. The present paper introduces a novel estimation technique for fMRI researchers, Group Iterative Multiple Model Estimation (GIMME), which demonstrates that using information across individuals assists in the recovery of the existence of connections among ROIs used by Smith and colleagues (2011) and the direction of the influence. Using heterogeneous in-house data, we demonstrate that GIMME offers a unique improvement over current approaches by arriving at reliable group and individual structures even when the data are highly heterogeneous across individuals comprising the group. An added benefit of GIMME is that it obtains reliable connectivity map estimates equally well using the data from resting state, block, or event-related designs. GIMME provides researchers with a powerful, flexible tool for identifying directed connectivity maps at the group and individual levels. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Assessment of the Maximal Split-Half Coefficient to Estimate Reliability

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Thompson, Barry L.; Green, Samuel B.; Yang, Yanyun

2010-01-01

The maximal split-half coefficient is computed by calculating all possible split-half reliability estimates for a scale and then choosing the maximal value as the reliability estimate. Osburn compared the maximal split-half coefficient with 10 other internal consistency estimates of reliability and concluded that it yielded the most consistently…

Interrater Reliability Estimators Commonly Used in Scoring Language Assessments: A Monte Carlo Investigation of Estimator Accuracy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Morgan, Grant B.; Zhu, Min; Johnson, Robert L.; Hodge, Kari J.

2014-01-01

Common estimators of interrater reliability include Pearson product-moment correlation coefficients, Spearman rank-order correlations, and the generalizability coefficient. The purpose of this study was to examine the accuracy of estimators of interrater reliability when varying the true reliability, number of scale categories, and number of…

Error estimation in multitemporal InSAR deformation time series, with application to Lanzarote, Canary Islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

GonzáLez, Pablo J.; FernáNdez, José

2011-10-01

Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) is a reliable technique for measuring crustal deformation. However, despite its long application in geophysical problems, its error estimation has been largely overlooked. Currently, the largest problem with InSAR is still the atmospheric propagation errors, which is why multitemporal interferometric techniques have been successfully developed using a series of interferograms. However, none of the standard multitemporal interferometric techniques, namely PS or SB (Persistent Scatterers and Small Baselines, respectively) provide an estimate of their precision. Here, we present a method to compute reliable estimates of the precision of the deformation time series. We implement it for the SB multitemporal interferometric technique (a favorable technique for natural terrains, the most usual target of geophysical applications). We describe the method that uses a properly weighted scheme that allows us to compute estimates for all interferogram pixels, enhanced by a Montecarlo resampling technique that properly propagates the interferogram errors (variance-covariances) into the unknown parameters (estimated errors for the displacements). We apply the multitemporal error estimation method to Lanzarote Island (Canary Islands), where no active magmatic activity has been reported in the last decades. We detect deformation around Timanfaya volcano (lengthening of line-of-sight ˜ subsidence), where the last eruption in 1730-1736 occurred. Deformation closely follows the surface temperature anomalies indicating that magma crystallization (cooling and contraction) of the 300-year shallow magmatic body under Timanfaya volcano is still ongoing.

Evaluation of skeletal and dental age using third molar calcification, condylar height and length of the mandibular body.

PubMed

Kedarisetty, Sunil Gupta; Rao, Guttikonda Venkateswara; Rayapudi, Naveen; Korlepara, Rajani

2015-01-01

To identify the most reliable method for age estimation among three variables, that is, condylar height, length of mandibular body and third molar calcification by Demirjian's method. Orthopantomograms and lateral cephalograms of 60 patients with equal gender ratio were included in the study, among each gender 15 subjects were below 18 years and 15 subjects were above 18 years. Lateral cephalograms were traced, height of condyle and mandibular body are measured manually on the tracing paper, OPG's were observed on radiographic illuminator and maturity score of third molar calcification was noted according to Demirjian's method. All the measurements were subjected to statistical analysis. The results obtained are of no significant difference between estimated age and actual age with all three parameters (P > 0.9780 condylar height, P > 0.9515 length of mandibular body, P > 0.8611 third molar calcification). Among these three, length of mandibular body shows least standard error test (i.e. 0.188). Although all three parameters can be used for age estimation, length of mandibular body is more reliable followed by height of condyle and third molar calcification.

Time-dependent reliability analysis of ceramic engine components

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nemeth, Noel N.

1993-01-01

The computer program CARES/LIFE calculates the time-dependent reliability of monolithic ceramic components subjected to thermomechanical and/or proof test loading. This program is an extension of the CARES (Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures) computer program. CARES/LIFE accounts for the phenomenon of subcritical crack growth (SCG) by utilizing either the power or Paris law relations. The two-parameter Weibull cumulative distribution function is used to characterize the variation in component strength. The effects of multiaxial stresses are modeled using either the principle of independent action (PIA), the Weibull normal stress averaging method (NSA), or the Batdorf theory. Inert strength and fatigue parameters are estimated from rupture strength data of naturally flawed specimens loaded in static, dynamic, or cyclic fatigue. Two example problems demonstrating proof testing and fatigue parameter estimation are given.

The Joint Confidence Level Paradox: A History of Denial

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Butts, Glenn; Linton, Kent

2009-01-01

This paper is intended to provide a reliable methodology for those tasked with generating price tags on construction (C0F) and research and development (R&D) activities in the NASA performance world. This document consists of a collection of cost-related engineering detail and project fulfillment information from early agency days to the present. Accurate historical detail is the first place to start when determining improved methodologies for future cost and schedule estimating. This paper contains a beneficial proposed cost estimating method for arriving at more reliable numbers for future submits. When comparing current cost and schedule methods with earlier cost and schedule approaches, it became apparent that NASA's organizational performance paradigm has morphed. Mission fulfillment speed has slowed and cost calculating factors have increased in 21st Century space exploration.

The application of the statistical theory of extreme values to gust-load problems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Press, Harry

1950-01-01

An analysis is presented which indicates that the statistical theory of extreme values is applicable to the problems of predicting the frequency of encountering the larger gust loads and gust velocities for both specific test conditions as well as commercial transport operations. The extreme-value theory provides an analytic form for the distributions of maximum values of gust load and velocity. Methods of fitting the distribution are given along with a method of estimating the reliability of the predictions. The theory of extreme values is applied to available load data from commercial transport operations. The results indicate that the estimates of the frequency of encountering the larger loads are more consistent with the data and more reliable than those obtained in previous analyses. (author)

Reliability verification of vehicle speed estimate method in forensic videos.

PubMed

Kim, Jong-Hyuk; Oh, Won-Taek; Choi, Ji-Hun; Park, Jong-Chan

2018-06-01

In various types of traffic accidents, including car-to-car crash, vehicle-pedestrian collision, and hit-and-run accident, driver overspeed is one of the critical issues of traffic accident analysis. Hence, analysis of vehicle speed at the moment of accident is necessary. The present article proposes a vehicle speed estimate method (VSEM) applying a virtual plane and a virtual reference line to a forensic video. The reliability of the VSEM was verified by comparing the results obtained by applying the VSEM to videos from a test vehicle driving with a global positioning system (GPS)-based Vbox speed. The VSEM verified by these procedures was applied to real traffic accident examples to evaluate the usability of the VSEM. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A novel method to remotely measure food intake of free-living individuals in real time: the remote food photography method.

PubMed

Martin, Corby K; Han, Hongmei; Coulon, Sandra M; Allen, H Raymond; Champagne, Catherine M; Anton, Stephen D

2009-02-01

The aim of the present study was to report the first reliability and validity tests of the remote food photography method (RFPM), which consists of camera-enabled cell phones with data transfer capability. Participants take and transmit photographs of food selection and plate waste to researchers/clinicians for analysis. Following two pilot studies, adult participants (n 52; BMI 20-35 kg/m2 inclusive) were randomly assigned to the dine-in or take-out group. Energy intake (EI) was measured for 3 d. The dine-in group ate lunch and dinner in the laboratory. The take-out group ate lunch in the laboratory and dinner in free-living conditions (participants received a cooler with pre-weighed food that they returned the following morning). EI was measured with the RFPM and by directly weighing foods. The RFPM was tested in laboratory and free-living conditions. Reliability was tested over 3 d and validity was tested by comparing directly weighed EI to EI estimated with the RFPM using Bland-Altman analysis. The RFPM produced reliable EI estimates over 3 d in laboratory (r 0.62; P < 0.0001) and free-living (r 0.68; P < 0.0001) conditions. Weighed EI correlated highly with EI estimated with the RFPM in laboratory and free-living conditions (r>0.93; P < 0.0001). In two laboratory-based validity tests, the RFPM underestimated EI by - 4.7 % (P = 0.046) and - 5.5 % (P = 0.076). In free-living conditions, the RFPM underestimated EI by - 6.6 % (P = 0.017). Bias did not differ by body weight or age. The RFPM is a promising new method for accurately measuring the EI of free-living individuals. Error associated with the method is small compared with self-report methods.

Comparing reliabilities of strip and conventional patch testing.

PubMed

Dickel, Heinrich; Geier, Johannes; Kreft, Burkhard; Pfützner, Wolfgang; Kuss, Oliver

2017-06-01

The standardized protocol for performing the strip patch test has proven to be valid, but evidence on its reliability is still missing. To estimate the parallel-test reliability of the strip patch test as compared with the conventional patch test. In this multicentre, prospective, randomized, investigator-blinded reliability study, 132 subjects were enrolled. Simultaneous duplicate strip and conventional patch tests were performed with the Finn Chambers ® on Scanpor ® tape test system and the patch test preparations nickel sulfate 5% pet., potassium dichromate 0.5% pet., and lanolin alcohol 30% pet. Reliability was estimated by the use of Cohen's kappa coefficient. Parallel-test reliability values of the three standard patch test preparations turned out to be acceptable, with slight advantages for the strip patch test. The differences in reliability were 9% (95%CI: -8% to 26%) for nickel sulfate and 23% (95%CI: -16% to 63%) for potassium dichromate, both favouring the strip patch test. The standardized strip patch test method for the detection of allergic contact sensitization in patients with suspected allergic contact dermatitis is reliable. Its application in routine clinical practice can be recommended, especially if the conventional patch test result is presumably false negative. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Evaluation of design flood estimates with respect to sample size

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kobierska, Florian; Engeland, Kolbjorn

2016-04-01

Estimation of design floods forms the basis for hazard management related to flood risk and is a legal obligation when building infrastructure such as dams, bridges and roads close to water bodies. Flood inundation maps used for land use planning are also produced based on design flood estimates. In Norway, the current guidelines for design flood estimates give recommendations on which data, probability distribution, and method to use dependent on length of the local record. If less than 30 years of local data is available, an index flood approach is recommended where the local observations are used for estimating the index flood and regional data are used for estimating the growth curve. For 30-50 years of data, a 2 parameter distribution is recommended, and for more than 50 years of data, a 3 parameter distribution should be used. Many countries have national guidelines for flood frequency estimation, and recommended distributions include the log Pearson II, generalized logistic and generalized extreme value distributions. For estimating distribution parameters, ordinary and linear moments, maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods are used. The aim of this study is to r-evaluate the guidelines for local flood frequency estimation. In particular, we wanted to answer the following questions: (i) Which distribution gives the best fit to the data? (ii) Which estimation method provides the best fit to the data? (iii) Does the answer to (i) and (ii) depend on local data availability? To answer these questions we set up a test bench for local flood frequency analysis using data based cross-validation methods. The criteria were based on indices describing stability and reliability of design flood estimates. Stability is used as a criterion since design flood estimates should not excessively depend on the data sample. The reliability indices describe to which degree design flood predictions can be trusted.

Correcting Measurement Error in Latent Regression Covariates via the MC-SIMEX Method

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rutkowski, Leslie; Zhou, Yan

2015-01-01

Given the importance of large-scale assessments to educational policy conversations, it is critical that subpopulation achievement is estimated reliably and with sufficient precision. Despite this importance, biased subpopulation estimates have been found to occur when variables in the conditioning model side of a latent regression model contain…

An Assessment of Propensity Score Matching as a Nonexperimental Impact Estimator: Evidence from Mexico's PROGRESA Program

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Diaz, Juan Jose; Handa, Sudhanshu

2006-01-01

Not all policy questions can be addressed by social experiments. Nonexperimental evaluation methods provide an alternative to experimental designs but their results depend on untestable assumptions. This paper presents evidence on the reliability of propensity score matching (PSM), which estimates treatment effects under the assumption of…

Inter-Method Reliability of School Effectiveness Measures: A Comparison of Value-Added and Regression Discontinuity Estimates

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Perry, Thomas

2017-01-01

Value-added (VA) measures are currently the predominant approach used to compare the effectiveness of schools. Recent educational effectiveness research, however, has developed alternative approaches including the regression discontinuity (RD) design, which also allows estimation of absolute school effects. Initial research suggests RD is a viable…

Quantification for Complex Assessment: Uncertainty Estimation in Final Year Project Thesis Assessment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kim, Ho Sung

2013-01-01

A quantitative method for estimating an expected uncertainty (reliability and validity) in assessment results arising from the relativity between four variables, viz examiner's expertise, examinee's expertise achieved, assessment task difficulty and examinee's performance, was developed for the complex assessment applicable to final…

Non-invasive body temperature measurement of wild chimpanzees using fecal temperature decline.

PubMed

Jensen, Siv Aina; Mundry, Roger; Nunn, Charles L; Boesch, Christophe; Leendertz, Fabian H

2009-04-01

New methods are required to increase our understanding of pathologic processes in wild mammals. We developed a noninvasive field method to estimate the body temperature of wild living chimpanzees habituated to humans, based on statistically fitting temperature decline of feces after defecation. The method was established with the use of control measures of human rectal temperature and subsequent changes in fecal temperature over time. The method was then applied to temperature data collected from wild chimpanzee feces. In humans, we found good correspondence between the temperature estimated by the method and the actual rectal temperature that was measured (maximum deviation 0.22 C). The method was successfully applied and the average estimated temperature of the chimpanzees was 37.2 C. This simple-to-use field method reliably estimates the body temperature of wild chimpanzees and probably also other large mammals.

Evaluation of skeletal and dental age using third molar calcification, condylar height and length of the mandibular body

PubMed Central

Kedarisetty, Sunil Gupta; Rao, Guttikonda Venkateswara; Rayapudi, Naveen; Korlepara, Rajani

2015-01-01

Aim: To identify the most reliable method for age estimation among three variables, that is, condylar height, length of mandibular body and third molar calcification by Demirjian's method. Materials and Methods: Orthopantomograms and lateral cephalograms of 60 patients with equal gender ratio were included in the study, among each gender 15 subjects were below 18 years and 15 subjects were above 18 years. Lateral cephalograms were traced, height of condyle and mandibular body are measured manually on the tracing paper, OPG's were observed on radiographic illuminator and maturity score of third molar calcification was noted according to Demirjian's method. All the measurements were subjected to statistical analysis. Results: The results obtained are of no significant difference between estimated age and actual age with all three parameters (P > 0.9780 condylar height, P > 0.9515 length of mandibular body, P > 0.8611 third molar calcification). Among these three, length of mandibular body shows least standard error test (i.e. 0.188). Conclusion: Although all three parameters can be used for age estimation, length of mandibular body is more reliable followed by height of condyle and third molar calcification. PMID:26005300

Validation of Body Volume Acquisition by Using Elliptical Zone Method.

PubMed

Chiu, C-Y; Pease, D L; Fawkner, S; Sanders, R H

2016-12-01

The elliptical zone method (E-Zone) can be used to obtain reliable body volume data including total body volume and segmental volumes with inexpensive and portable equipment. The purpose of this research was to assess the accuracy of body volume data obtained from E-Zone by comparing them with those acquired from the 3D photonic scanning method (3DPS). 17 male participants with diverse somatotypes were recruited. Each participant was scanned twice on the same day by a 3D whole-body scanner and photographed twice for the E-Zone analysis. The body volume data acquired from 3DPS was regarded as the reference against which the accuracy of the E-Zone was assessed. The relative technical error of measurement (TEM) of total body volume estimations was around 3% for E-Zone. E-Zone can estimate the segmental volumes of upper torso, lower torso, thigh, shank, upper arm and lower arm accurately (relative TEM<10%) but the accuracy for small segments including the neck, hand and foot were poor. In summary, E-Zone provides a reliable, inexpensive, portable, and simple method to obtain reasonable estimates of total body volume and to indicate segmental volume distribution. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Smartphone Assessment of Knee Flexion Compared to Radiographic Standards

PubMed Central

Dietz, Matthew J.; Sprando, Daniel; Hanselman, Andrew E.; Regier, Michael D.; Frye, Benjamin M.

2017-01-01

Purpose Measuring knee range of motion (ROM) is an important assessment for the outcomes of total knee arthroplasty. Recent technological advances have led to the development and use of accelerometer-based smartphone applications to measure knee ROM. The purpose of this study was to develop, standardize, and validate methods of utilizing smartphone accelerometer technology compared to radiographic standards, visual estimation, and goniometric evaluation. Methods Participants used visual estimation, a long-arm goniometer, and a smartphone accelerometer to determine range of motion of a cadaveric lower extremity; these results were compared to radiographs taken at the same angles. Results The optimal smartphone position was determined to be on top of the leg at the distal femur and proximal tibia location. Between methods, it was found that the smartphone and goniometer were comparably reliable in measuring knee flexion (ICC = 0.94; 95% CI: 0.91–0.96). Visual estimation was found to be the least reliable method of measurement. Conclusions The results suggested that the smartphone accelerometer was non-inferior when compared to the other measurement techniques, demonstrated similar deviations from radiographic standards, and did not appear to be influenced by the person performing the measurements or the girth of the extremity. PMID:28179062

On the Simulation of Sea States with High Significant Wave Height for the Validation of Parameter Retrieval Algorithms for Future Altimetry Missions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuschenerus, Mieke; Cullen, Robert

2016-08-01

To ensure reliability and precision of wave height estimates for future satellite altimetry missions such as Sentinel 6, reliable parameter retrieval algorithms that can extract significant wave heights up to 20 m have to be established. The retrieved parameters, i.e. the retrieval methods need to be validated extensively on a wide range of possible significant wave heights. Although current missions require wave height retrievals up to 20 m, there is little evidence of systematic validation of parameter retrieval methods for sea states with wave heights above 10 m. This paper provides a definition of a set of simulated sea states with significant wave height up to 20 m, that allow simulation of radar altimeter response echoes for extreme sea states in SAR and low resolution mode. The simulated radar responses are used to derive significant wave height estimates, which can be compared with the initial models, allowing precision estimations of the applied parameter retrieval methods. Thus we establish a validation method for significant wave height retrieval for sea states causing high significant wave heights, to allow improved understanding and planning of future satellite altimetry mission validation.

Branch and bound algorithm for accurate estimation of analytical isotropic bidirectional reflectance distribution function models.

PubMed

Yu, Chanki; Lee, Sang Wook

2016-05-20

We present a reliable and accurate global optimization framework for estimating parameters of isotropic analytical bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) models. This approach is based on a branch and bound strategy with linear programming and interval analysis. Conventional local optimization is often very inefficient for BRDF estimation since its fitting quality is highly dependent on initial guesses due to the nonlinearity of analytical BRDF models. The algorithm presented in this paper employs L₁-norm error minimization to estimate BRDF parameters in a globally optimal way and interval arithmetic to derive our feasibility problem and lower bounding function. Our method is developed for the Cook-Torrance model but with several normal distribution functions such as the Beckmann, Berry, and GGX functions. Experiments have been carried out to validate the presented method using 100 isotropic materials from the MERL BRDF database, and our experimental results demonstrate that the L₁-norm minimization provides a more accurate and reliable solution than the L₂-norm minimization.

Between-day reliability of a method for non-invasive estimation of muscle composition.

PubMed

Simunič, Boštjan

2012-08-01

Tensiomyography is a method for valid and non-invasive estimation of skeletal muscle fibre type composition. The validity of selected temporal tensiomyographic measures has been well established recently; there is, however, no evidence regarding the method's between-day reliability. Therefore it is the aim of this paper to establish the between-day repeatability of tensiomyographic measures in three skeletal muscles. For three consecutive days, 10 healthy male volunteers (mean±SD: age 24.6 ± 3.0 years; height 177.9 ± 3.9 cm; weight 72.4 ± 5.2 kg) were examined in a supine position. Four temporal measures (delay, contraction, sustain, and half-relaxation time) and maximal amplitude were extracted from the displacement-time tensiomyogram. A reliability analysis was performed with calculations of bias, random error, coefficient of variation (CV), standard error of measurement, and intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC) with a 95% confidence interval. An analysis of ICC demonstrated excellent agreement (ICC were over 0.94 in 14 out of 15 tested parameters). However, lower CV was observed in half-relaxation time, presumably because of the specifics of the parameter definition itself. These data indicate that for the three muscles tested, tensiomyographic measurements were reproducible across consecutive test days. Furthermore, we indicated the most possible origin of the lowest reliability detected in half-relaxation time. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Reliability of Pressure Ulcer Rates: How Precisely Can We Differentiate Among Hospital Units, and Does the Standard Signal‐Noise Reliability Measure Reflect This Precision?

PubMed Central

Cramer, Emily

2016-01-01

Abstract Hospital performance reports often include rankings of unit pressure ulcer rates. Differentiating among units on the basis of quality requires reliable measurement. Our objectives were to describe and apply methods for assessing reliability of hospital‐acquired pressure ulcer rates and evaluate a standard signal‐noise reliability measure as an indicator of precision of differentiation among units. Quarterly pressure ulcer data from 8,199 critical care, step‐down, medical, surgical, and medical‐surgical nursing units from 1,299 US hospitals were analyzed. Using beta‐binomial models, we estimated between‐unit variability (signal) and within‐unit variability (noise) in annual unit pressure ulcer rates. Signal‐noise reliability was computed as the ratio of between‐unit variability to the total of between‐ and within‐unit variability. To assess precision of differentiation among units based on ranked pressure ulcer rates, we simulated data to estimate the probabilities of a unit's observed pressure ulcer rate rank in a given sample falling within five and ten percentiles of its true rank, and the probabilities of units with ulcer rates in the highest quartile and highest decile being identified as such. We assessed the signal‐noise measure as an indicator of differentiation precision by computing its correlations with these probabilities. Pressure ulcer rates based on a single year of quarterly or weekly prevalence surveys were too susceptible to noise to allow for precise differentiation among units, and signal‐noise reliability was a poor indicator of precision of differentiation. To ensure precise differentiation on the basis of true differences, alternative methods of assessing reliability should be applied to measures purported to differentiate among providers or units based on quality. © 2016 The Authors. Research in Nursing & Health published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. PMID:27223598

Bayesian forecasting and uncertainty quantifying of stream flows using Metropolis-Hastings Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Hongrui; Wang, Cheng; Wang, Ying; Gao, Xiong; Yu, Chen

2017-06-01

This paper presents a Bayesian approach using Metropolis-Hastings Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm and applies this method for daily river flow rate forecast and uncertainty quantification for Zhujiachuan River using data collected from Qiaotoubao Gage Station and other 13 gage stations in Zhujiachuan watershed in China. The proposed method is also compared with the conventional maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) for parameter estimation and quantification of associated uncertainties. While the Bayesian method performs similarly in estimating the mean value of daily flow rate, it performs over the conventional MLE method on uncertainty quantification, providing relatively narrower reliable interval than the MLE confidence interval and thus more precise estimation by using the related information from regional gage stations. The Bayesian MCMC method might be more favorable in the uncertainty analysis and risk management.

A method of estimating the knock rating of hydrocarbon fuel blend

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sanders, Newell D

1943-01-01

The usefulness of the knock ratings of pure hydrocarbon compounds would be increased if some reliable method of calculating the knock ratings of fuel blends was known. The purpose of this study was to investigate the possibility of developing a method of predicting the knock ratings of fuel blends.

A Method of Estimating the Knock Rating of Hydrocarbon Fuel Blends

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sanders, Newell D.

1943-01-01

The usefulness of the knock ratings of pure hydrocarbon compounds would be increased if some reliable method of calculating the knock ratings of fuel blends was known. The purpose of this study was to investigate the possibility of developing a method of predicting the knock ratings of fuel blends.

Real-Time GNSS-Based Attitude Determination in the Measurement Domain.

PubMed

Zhao, Lin; Li, Na; Li, Liang; Zhang, Yi; Cheng, Chun

2017-02-05

A multi-antenna-based GNSS receiver is capable of providing high-precision and drift-free attitude solution. Carrier phase measurements need be utilized to achieve high-precision attitude. The traditional attitude determination methods in the measurement domain and the position domain resolve the attitude and the ambiguity sequentially. The redundant measurements from multiple baselines have not been fully utilized to enhance the reliability of attitude determination. A multi-baseline-based attitude determination method in the measurement domain is proposed to estimate the attitude parameters and the ambiguity simultaneously. Meanwhile, the redundancy of attitude resolution has also been increased so that the reliability of ambiguity resolution and attitude determination can be enhanced. Moreover, in order to further improve the reliability of attitude determination, we propose a partial ambiguity resolution method based on the proposed attitude determination model. The static and kinematic experiments were conducted to verify the performance of the proposed method. When compared with the traditional attitude determination methods, the static experimental results show that the proposed method can improve the accuracy by at least 0.03° and enhance the continuity by 18%, at most. The kinematic result has shown that the proposed method can obtain an optimal balance between accuracy and reliability performance.

Validation of Statistical Models for Estimating Hospitalization Associated with Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses

PubMed Central

Chan, King-Pan; Chan, Kwok-Hung; Wong, Wilfred Hing-Sang; Peiris, J. S. Malik; Wong, Chit-Ming

2011-01-01

Background Reliable estimates of disease burden associated with respiratory viruses are keys to deployment of preventive strategies such as vaccination and resource allocation. Such estimates are particularly needed in tropical and subtropical regions where some methods commonly used in temperate regions are not applicable. While a number of alternative approaches to assess the influenza associated disease burden have been recently reported, none of these models have been validated with virologically confirmed data. Even fewer methods have been developed for other common respiratory viruses such as respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), parainfluenza and adenovirus. Methods and Findings We had recently conducted a prospective population-based study of virologically confirmed hospitalization for acute respiratory illnesses in persons <18 years residing in Hong Kong Island. Here we used this dataset to validate two commonly used models for estimation of influenza disease burden, namely the rate difference model and Poisson regression model, and also explored the applicability of these models to estimate the disease burden of other respiratory viruses. The Poisson regression models with different link functions all yielded estimates well correlated with the virologically confirmed influenza associated hospitalization, especially in children older than two years. The disease burden estimates for RSV, parainfluenza and adenovirus were less reliable with wide confidence intervals. The rate difference model was not applicable to RSV, parainfluenza and adenovirus and grossly underestimated the true burden of influenza associated hospitalization. Conclusion The Poisson regression model generally produced satisfactory estimates in calculating the disease burden of respiratory viruses in a subtropical region such as Hong Kong. PMID:21412433

Probabilistic risk assessment for a loss of coolant accident in McMaster Nuclear Reactor and application of reliability physics model for modeling human reliability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ha, Taesung

A probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) was conducted for a loss of coolant accident, (LOCA) in the McMaster Nuclear Reactor (MNR). A level 1 PRA was completed including event sequence modeling, system modeling, and quantification. To support the quantification of the accident sequence identified, data analysis using the Bayesian method and human reliability analysis (HRA) using the accident sequence evaluation procedure (ASEP) approach were performed. Since human performance in research reactors is significantly different from that in power reactors, a time-oriented HRA model (reliability physics model) was applied for the human error probability (HEP) estimation of the core relocation. This model is based on two competing random variables: phenomenological time and performance time. The response surface and direct Monte Carlo simulation with Latin Hypercube sampling were applied for estimating the phenomenological time, whereas the performance time was obtained from interviews with operators. An appropriate probability distribution for the phenomenological time was assigned by statistical goodness-of-fit tests. The human error probability (HEP) for the core relocation was estimated from these two competing quantities: phenomenological time and operators' performance time. The sensitivity of each probability distribution in human reliability estimation was investigated. In order to quantify the uncertainty in the predicted HEPs, a Bayesian approach was selected due to its capability of incorporating uncertainties in model itself and the parameters in that model. The HEP from the current time-oriented model was compared with that from the ASEP approach. Both results were used to evaluate the sensitivity of alternative huinan reliability modeling for the manual core relocation in the LOCA risk model. This exercise demonstrated the applicability of a reliability physics model supplemented with a. Bayesian approach for modeling human reliability and its potential usefulness of quantifying model uncertainty as sensitivity analysis in the PRA model.

Dental age estimation: Comparison of reliability between Malay formula of Demirjian method and Malay formula of Cameriere method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alghali, R.; Kamaruddin, A. F.; Mokhtar, N.

2016-12-01

Introduction: The application of forensic odontology using teeth and bones becomes the most commonly used methods to determine age of unknown individuals. Objective: The aim of this study was to determine the reliability of Malay formula of Demirjian and Malay formula of Cameriere methods in determining the dental age that is closely matched with the chronological age of Malay children in Kepala Batas region. Methodology: This is a retrospective cross-sectional study. 126 good quality dental panoramic radiographs (DPT) of healthy Malay children aged 8-16 years (49 boys and 77 girls) were selected and measured. All radiographs were taken at Dental Specialist Clinic, Advanced Medical and Dental Institute, Universiti Sains Malaysia. The measurements were carried out using new Malay formula of both Demirjian and Cameriere methods by calibrated examiner. Results: The intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) analysis between the chronological age with Demirjian and Cameriere has been calculated. The Demirjian method has shown a better percentage (91.4%) of ICC compared to Cameriere (89.2%) which also indicates a high association, with good reliability. However, by comparing between Demirjian and Cameriere, it can be concluded that Demirjian has a better reliability. Conclusion: Thus, the results suggested that, modified Demirjian method is more reliable than modified Cameriere method among the population in Kepala Batas region.

Operation Reliability Assessment for Cutting Tools by Applying a Proportional Covariate Model to Condition Monitoring Information

PubMed Central

Cai, Gaigai; Chen, Xuefeng; Li, Bing; Chen, Baojia; He, Zhengjia

2012-01-01

The reliability of cutting tools is critical to machining precision and production efficiency. The conventional statistic-based reliability assessment method aims at providing a general and overall estimation of reliability for a large population of identical units under given and fixed conditions. However, it has limited effectiveness in depicting the operational characteristics of a cutting tool. To overcome this limitation, this paper proposes an approach to assess the operation reliability of cutting tools. A proportional covariate model is introduced to construct the relationship between operation reliability and condition monitoring information. The wavelet packet transform and an improved distance evaluation technique are used to extract sensitive features from vibration signals, and a covariate function is constructed based on the proportional covariate model. Ultimately, the failure rate function of the cutting tool being assessed is calculated using the baseline covariate function obtained from a small sample of historical data. Experimental results and a comparative study show that the proposed method is effective for assessing the operation reliability of cutting tools. PMID:23201980

Estimating groundwater recharge uncertainty from joint application of an aquifer test and the water-table fluctuation method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delottier, H.; Pryet, A.; Lemieux, J. M.; Dupuy, A.

2018-05-01

Specific yield and groundwater recharge of unconfined aquifers are both essential parameters for groundwater modeling and sustainable groundwater development, yet the collection of reliable estimates of these parameters remains challenging. Here, a joint approach combining an aquifer test with application of the water-table fluctuation (WTF) method is presented to estimate these parameters and quantify their uncertainty. The approach requires two wells: an observation well instrumented with a pressure probe for long-term monitoring and a pumping well, located in the vicinity, for the aquifer test. The derivative of observed drawdown levels highlights the necessity to represent delayed drainage from the unsaturated zone when interpreting the aquifer test results. Groundwater recharge is estimated with an event-based WTF method in order to minimize the transient effects of flow dynamics in the unsaturated zone. The uncertainty on groundwater recharge is obtained by the propagation of the uncertainties on specific yield (Bayesian inference) and groundwater recession dynamics (regression analysis) through the WTF equation. A major portion of the uncertainty on groundwater recharge originates from the uncertainty on the specific yield. The approach was applied to a site in Bordeaux (France). Groundwater recharge was estimated to be 335 mm with an associated uncertainty of 86.6 mm at 2σ. By the use of cost-effective instrumentation and parsimonious methods of interpretation, the replication of such a joint approach should be encouraged to provide reliable estimates of specific yield and groundwater recharge over a region of interest. This is necessary to reduce the predictive uncertainty of groundwater management models.

Sizing up arthropod genomes: an evaluation of the impact of environmental variation on genome size estimates by flow cytometry and the use of qPCR as a method of estimation.

PubMed

Gregory, T Ryan; Nathwani, Paula; Bonnett, Tiffany R; Huber, Dezene P W

2013-09-01

A study was undertaken to evaluate both a pre-existing method and a newly proposed approach for the estimation of nuclear genome sizes in arthropods. First, concerns regarding the reliability of the well-established method of flow cytometry relating to impacts of rearing conditions on genome size estimates were examined. Contrary to previous reports, a more carefully controlled test found negligible environmental effects on genome size estimates in the fly Drosophila melanogaster. Second, a more recently touted method based on quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR) was examined in terms of ease of use, efficiency, and (most importantly) accuracy using four test species: the flies Drosophila melanogaster and Musca domestica and the beetles Tribolium castaneum and Dendroctonus ponderosa. The results of this analysis demonstrated that qPCR has the tendency to produce substantially different genome size estimates from other established techniques while also being far less efficient than existing methods.

Validity and reliability of the abdominal test and evaluation systems tool (ABTEST) to accurately measure abdominal force.

PubMed

Glenn, Jordan M; Galey, Madeline; Edwards, Abigail; Rickert, Bradley; Washington, Tyrone A

2015-07-01

Ability to generate force from the core musculature is a critical factor for sports and general activities with insufficiencies predisposing individuals to injury. This study evaluated isometric force production as a valid and reliable method of assessing abdominal force using the abdominal test and evaluation systems tool (ABTEST). Secondary analysis estimated 1-repetition maximum on commercially available abdominal machine compared to maximum force and average power on ABTEST system. This study utilized test-retest reliability and comparative analysis for validity. Reliability was measured using test-retest design on ABTEST. Validity was measured via comparison to estimated 1-repetition maximum on a commercially available abdominal device. Participants applied isometric, abdominal force against a transducer and muscular activation was evaluated measuring normalized electromyographic activity at the rectus-abdominus, rectus-femoris, and erector-spinae. Test, re-test force production on ABTEST was significantly correlated (r=0.84; p<0.001). Mean electromyographic activity for the rectus-abdominus (72.93% and 75.66%), rectus-femoris (6.59% and 6.51%), and erector-spinae (6.82% and 5.48%) were observed for trial-1 and trial-2, respectively. Significant correlations for the estimated 1-repetition maximum were found for average power (r=0.70, p=0.002) and maximum force (r=0.72, p<0.001). Data indicate the ABTEST can accurately measure rectus-abdominus force isolated from hip-flexor involvement. Negligible activation of erector-spinae substantiates little subjective effort among participants in the lower back. Results suggest ABTEST is a valid and reliable method of evaluating abdominal force. Copyright © 2014 Sports Medicine Australia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Uncertainty of fast biological radiation dose assessment for emergency response scenarios.

PubMed

Ainsbury, Elizabeth A; Higueras, Manuel; Puig, Pedro; Einbeck, Jochen; Samaga, Daniel; Barquinero, Joan Francesc; Barrios, Lleonard; Brzozowska, Beata; Fattibene, Paola; Gregoire, Eric; Jaworska, Alicja; Lloyd, David; Oestreicher, Ursula; Romm, Horst; Rothkamm, Kai; Roy, Laurence; Sommer, Sylwester; Terzoudi, Georgia; Thierens, Hubert; Trompier, Francois; Vral, Anne; Woda, Clemens

2017-01-01

Reliable dose estimation is an important factor in appropriate dosimetric triage categorization of exposed individuals to support radiation emergency response. Following work done under the EU FP7 MULTIBIODOSE and RENEB projects, formal methods for defining uncertainties on biological dose estimates are compared using simulated and real data from recent exercises. The results demonstrate that a Bayesian method of uncertainty assessment is the most appropriate, even in the absence of detailed prior information. The relative accuracy and relevance of techniques for calculating uncertainty and combining assay results to produce single dose and uncertainty estimates is further discussed. Finally, it is demonstrated that whatever uncertainty estimation method is employed, ignoring the uncertainty on fast dose assessments can have an important impact on rapid biodosimetric categorization.

Direct costs of unintended pregnancy in the Russian federation.

PubMed

Lowin, Julia; Jarrett, James; Dimova, Maria; Ignateva, Victoria; Omelyanovsky, Vitaly; Filonenko, Anna

2015-02-01

In 2010, almost every third pregnancy in Russia was terminated, indicating that unintended pregnancy (UP) is a public health problem. The aim of this study was to estimate the direct cost of UP to the healthcare system in Russia and the proportion attributable to using unreliable contraception. A cost model was built, adopting a generic payer perspective with a 1-year time horizon. The analysis cohort was defined as women of childbearing age between 18 and 44 years actively seeking to avoid pregnancy. Model inputs were derived from published sources or government statistics with a 2012 cost base. To estimate the number of UPs attributable to unreliable methods, the model combined annual typical use failure rates and age-adjusted utilization for each contraceptive method. Published survey data was used to adjust the total cost of UP by the number of UPs that were mistimed rather than unwanted. Scenario analysis considered alternate allocation of methods to the reliable and unreliable categories and estimate of the burden of UP in the target sub-group of women aged 18-29 years. The model estimated 1,646,799 UPs in the analysis cohort (women aged 18-44 years) with an associated annual cost of US$783 million. The model estimated 1,019,371 UPs in the target group of 18-29 years, of which 88 % were attributable to unreliable contraception. The total cost of UPs in the target group was estimated at approximately US$498 million, of which US$441 million could be considered attributable to the use of unreliable methods. The cost of UP attributable to use of unreliable contraception in Russia is substantial. Policies encouraging use of reliable contraceptive methods could reduce the burden of UP.

Congruence of Imaging Estimators and Mechanical Measurements of Viscoelastic Properties of Soft Tissues

PubMed Central

Zhang, Man; Castaneda, Benjamin; Wu, Zhe; Nigwekar, Priya; Joseph, Jean V.; Rubens, Deborah J.; Parker, Kevin J.

2007-01-01

Biomechanical properties of soft tissues are important for a wide range of medical applications, such as surgical simulation and planning and detection of lesions by elasticity imaging modalities. Currently, the data in the literature is limited and conflicting. Furthermore, to assess the biomechanical properties of living tissue in vivo, reliable imaging-based estimators must be developed and verified. For these reasons we developed and compared two independent quantitative methods – crawling wave estimator (CRE) and mechanical measurement (MM) for soft tissue characterization. The CRE method images shear wave interference patterns from which the shear wave velocity can be determined and hence the Young’s modulus can be obtained. The MM method provides the complex Young’s modulus of the soft tissue from which both elastic and viscous behavior can be extracted. This article presents the systematic comparison between these two techniques on the measurement of gelatin phantom, veal liver, thermal-treated veal liver, and human prostate. It was observed that the Young’s moduli of liver and prostate tissues slightly increase with frequency. The experimental results of the two methods are highly congruent, suggesting CRE and MM methods can be reliably used to investigate viscoelastic properties of other soft tissues, with CRE having the advantages of operating in nearly real time and in situ. PMID:17604902

An experimental evaluation of software redundancy as a strategy for improving reliability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Eckhardt, Dave E., Jr.; Caglayan, Alper K.; Knight, John C.; Lee, Larry D.; Mcallister, David F.; Vouk, Mladen A.; Kelly, John P. J.

1990-01-01

The strategy of using multiple versions of independently developed software as a means to tolerate residual software design faults is suggested by the success of hardware redundancy for tolerating hardware failures. Although, as generally accepted, the independence of hardware failures resulting from physical wearout can lead to substantial increases in reliability for redundant hardware structures, a similar conclusion is not immediate for software. The degree to which design faults are manifested as independent failures determines the effectiveness of redundancy as a method for improving software reliability. Interest in multi-version software centers on whether it provides an adequate measure of increased reliability to warrant its use in critical applications. The effectiveness of multi-version software is studied by comparing estimates of the failure probabilities of these systems with the failure probabilities of single versions. The estimates are obtained under a model of dependent failures and compared with estimates obtained when failures are assumed to be independent. The experimental results are based on twenty versions of an aerospace application developed and certified by sixty programmers from four universities. Descriptions of the application, development and certification processes, and operational evaluation are given together with an analysis of the twenty versions.

Measurement properties of gingival biotype evaluation methods.

PubMed

Alves, Patrick Henry Machado; Alves, Thereza Cristina Lira Pacheco; Pegoraro, Thiago Amadei; Costa, Yuri Martins; Bonfante, Estevam Augusto; de Almeida, Ana Lúcia Pompéia Fraga

2018-06-01

There are numerous methods to measure the dimensions of the gingival tissue, but few have compared the effectiveness of one method over another. This study aimed to describe a new method and to estimate the validity of gingival biotype assessment with the aid of computed tomography scanning (CTS). In each patient different methods of evaluation of the gingival thickness were used: transparency of periodontal probe, transgingival, photography, and a new method of CTS). Intrarater and interrater reliability considering the categorical classification of the gingival biotype were estimated with Cohen's kappa coefficient, intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC), and ANOVA (P < .05). The criterion validity of the CTS was determined using the transgingival method as the reference standard. Sensitivity and specificity values were computed along with theirs 95% CI. Twelve patients were subjected to assessment of their gingival thickness. The highest agreement was found between transgingival and CTS (86.1%). The comparison between the categorical classifications of CTS and the transgingival method (reference standard) showed high specificity (94.92%) and low sensitivity (53.85%) for definition of a thin biotype. The new method of CTS assessment to classify gingival tissue thickness can be considered reliable and clinically useful to diagnose thick biotype. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Utilization of bone impedance for age estimation in postmortem cases.

PubMed

Ishikawa, Noboru; Suganami, Hideki; Nishida, Atsushi; Miyamori, Daisuke; Kakiuchi, Yasuhiro; Yamada, Naotake; Wook-Cheol, Kim; Kubo, Toshikazu; Ikegaya, Hiroshi

2015-11-01

In the field of Forensic Medicine the number of unidentified cadavers has increased due to natural disasters and international terrorism. The age estimation is very important for identification of the victims. The degree of sagittal closure is one of such age estimation methods. However it is not widely accepted as a reliable method for age estimation. In this study, we have examined whether measuring impedance value (z-values) of the sagittal suture of the skull is related to the age in men and women and discussed the possibility to use bone impedance for age estimation. Bone impedance values increased with aging and decreased after the age of 64.5. Then we compared age estimation through the conventional visual method and the proposed bone impedance measurement technique. It is suggested that the bone impedance measuring technique may be of value to forensic science as a method of age estimation. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd and Faculty of Forensic and Legal Medicine. All rights reserved.

Having a Whale of a Time

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

du Feu, Chris

2009-01-01

A classroom practical exercise exploring the reliability of a basic capture-mark-recapture method of population estimation is described using great whale conservation as a starting point. Various teaching resources are made available.

Manual and automatic locomotion scoring systems in dairy cows: a review.

PubMed

Schlageter-Tello, Andrés; Bokkers, Eddie A M; Koerkamp, Peter W G Groot; Van Hertem, Tom; Viazzi, Stefano; Romanini, Carlos E B; Halachmi, Ilan; Bahr, Claudia; Berckmans, Daniël; Lokhorst, Kees

2014-09-01

The objective of this review was to describe, compare and evaluate agreement, reliability, and validity of manual and automatic locomotion scoring systems (MLSSs and ALSSs, respectively) used in dairy cattle lameness research. There are many different types of MLSSs and ALSSs. Twenty-five MLSSs were found in 244 articles. MLSSs use different types of scale (ordinal or continuous) and different gait and posture traits need to be observed. The most used MLSS (used in 28% of the references) is based on asymmetric gait, reluctance to bear weight, and arched back, and is scored on a five-level scale. Fifteen ALSSs were found that could be categorized according to three approaches: (a) the kinetic approach measures forces involved in locomotion, (b) the kinematic approach measures time and distance of variables associated to limb movement and some specific posture variables, and (c) the indirect approach uses behavioural variables or production variables as indicators for impaired locomotion. Agreement and reliability estimates were scarcely reported in articles related to MLSSs. When reported, inappropriate statistical methods such as PABAK and Pearson and Spearman correlation coefficients were commonly used. Some of the most frequently used MLSSs were poorly evaluated for agreement and reliability. Agreement and reliability estimates for the original four-, five- or nine-level MLSS, expressed in percentage of agreement, kappa and weighted kappa, showed large ranges among and sometimes also within articles. After the transformation into a two-level scale, agreement and reliability estimates showed acceptable estimates (percentage of agreement ≥ 75%; kappa and weighted kappa ≥ 0.6), but still estimates showed a large variation between articles. Agreement and reliability estimates for ALSSs were not reported in any article. Several ALSSs use MLSSs as a reference for model calibration and validation. However, varying agreement and reliability estimates of MLSSs make a clear definition of a lameness case difficult, and thus affect the validity of ALSSs. MLSSs and ALSSs showed limited validity for hoof lesion detection and pain assessment. The utilization of MLSSs and ALSSs should aim to the prevention and efficient management of conditions that induce impaired locomotion. Long-term studies comparing MLSSs and ALSSs while applying various strategies to detect and control unfavourable conditions leading to impaired locomotion are required to determine the usefulness of MLSSs and ALSSs for securing optimal production and animal welfare in practice. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A robust ridge regression approach in the presence of both multicollinearity and outliers in the data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shariff, Nurul Sima Mohamad; Ferdaos, Nur Aqilah

2017-08-01

Multicollinearity often leads to inconsistent and unreliable parameter estimates in regression analysis. This situation will be more severe in the presence of outliers it will cause fatter tails in the error distributions than the normal distributions. The well-known procedure that is robust to multicollinearity problem is the ridge regression method. This method however is expected to be affected by the presence of outliers due to some assumptions imposed in the modeling procedure. Thus, the robust version of existing ridge method with some modification in the inverse matrix and the estimated response value is introduced. The performance of the proposed method is discussed and comparisons are made with several existing estimators namely, Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), ridge regression and robust ridge regression based on GM-estimates. The finding of this study is able to produce reliable parameter estimates in the presence of both multicollinearity and outliers in the data.

Measurement Properties of Performance-Specific Pain Ratings of Patients Awaiting Total Joint Arthroplasty as a Consequence of Osteoarthritis

PubMed Central

Stratford, Paul W.; Kennedy, Deborah M.; Woodhouse, Linda J.; Spadoni, Gregory

2008-01-01

Purpose: To estimate the test–retest reliability of the Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC) pain sub-scale and performance-specific assessments of pain, as well as the association between these measures for patients awaiting primary total hip or knee arthroplasty as a consequence of osteoarthritis. Methods: A total of 164 patients awaiting unilateral primary hip or knee arthroplasty completed four performance measures (self-paced walk, timed up and go, stair test, six-minute walk) and the WOMAC. Scores for 22 of these patients provided test–retest reliability data. Estimates of test–retest reliability (Type 2,1 intraclass correlation coefficient [ICC] and standard error of measurement [SEM]) and the association between measures were examined. Results: ICC values for individual performance-specific pain ratings were between 0.70 and 0.86; SEM values were between 0.97 and 1.33 pain points. ICC estimates for the four-item performance pain ratings and the WOMAC pain sub-scale were 0.82 and 0.57 respectively. The correlation between the sum of the pain scores for the four performance measures and the WOMAC pain sub-scale was 0.62. Conclusion: Reliability estimates for the performance-specific assessments of pain using the numeric pain rating scale were consistent with values reported for patients with a spectrum of musculoskeletal conditions. The reliability estimate for the WOMAC pain sub-scale was lower than typically reported in the literature. The level of association between the WOMAC pain sub-scale and the various performance-specific pain scales suggests that the scores can be used interchangeably when applied to groups but not for individual patients. PMID:20145758

A novel method to remotely measure food intake of free-living people in real-time

PubMed Central

Martin, Corby K.; Han, Hongmei; Coulon, Sandra M.; Allen, H. Raymond; Champagne, Catherine M.; Anton, Stephen D.

2008-01-01

The aim of this study was to report the first reliability and validity tests of the Remote Food Photography Method (RFPM), which consists of camera-enabled cell phones with data transfer capability. Participants take and transmit photographs of food selection and plate waste to researchers/clinicians for analysis. Following two pilot studies, adult participants (N=52, 20≤BMI≤35) were randomly assigned to the dine-in or take-out group. Energy intake (EI) was measured for three days. The dine-in group ate lunch and dinner in the laboratory. The take-out group ate lunch in the laboratory and dinner in free-living conditions (participants received a cooler with pre-weighed food that they returned the following morning). Energy intake was measured with the RFPM and by directly weighing foods. The RFPM was tested in laboratory and free-living conditions. Reliability was tested over three days and validity was tested by comparing directly weighed EI to EI estimated with the RFPM using Bland-Altman analysis. The RFPM produced reliable EI estimates over three days in laboratory (r=.62, p<.0001) and free-living (r=.68, p<.0001) conditions. Weighed EI correlated highly with EI estimated with the RFPM in laboratory and free-living conditions (r’s>.93, p<.0001). In two laboratory-based validity tests, the RFPM underestimated EI by -4.7% (p=.046) and -5.5% (p=.076). In free-living conditions, the RFPM underestimated EI by -6.6% (p=.017). Bias did not differ by body weight or age. The RFPM is a promising new method for accurately measuring the EI of free-living people. Error associated with the method is small compared to self-report methods. PMID:18616837

Estimating canopy cover from standard forest inventory measurements in western Oregon

Treesearch

Anne McIntosh; Andrew Gray; Steven. Garman

2012-01-01

Reliable measures of canopy cover are important in the management of public and private forests. However, direct sampling of canopy cover is both labor- and time-intensive. More efficient methods for estimating percent canopy cover could be empirically derived relationships between more readily measured stand attributes and canopy cover or, alternatively, the use of...

Estimated Student Score Gain on the ACT COMP Exam: Valid Tool for Institutional Assessment?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Banta, Trudy W.; And Others

1987-01-01

An institution can test seniors with the ACT College Outcome Measures Project (COMP) exam, then subtract from the senior score an estimated freshman score. Studies at the University of Tennessee, Knoxville, indicate that this method is not reliable to make judgments about the quality of general education programs. (Author/MLW)

Direct volume estimation without segmentation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhen, X.; Wang, Z.; Islam, A.; Bhaduri, M.; Chan, I.; Li, S.

2015-03-01

Volume estimation plays an important role in clinical diagnosis. For example, cardiac ventricular volumes including left ventricle (LV) and right ventricle (RV) are important clinical indicators of cardiac functions. Accurate and automatic estimation of the ventricular volumes is essential to the assessment of cardiac functions and diagnosis of heart diseases. Conventional methods are dependent on an intermediate segmentation step which is obtained either manually or automatically. However, manual segmentation is extremely time-consuming, subjective and highly non-reproducible; automatic segmentation is still challenging, computationally expensive, and completely unsolved for the RV. Towards accurate and efficient direct volume estimation, our group has been researching on learning based methods without segmentation by leveraging state-of-the-art machine learning techniques. Our direct estimation methods remove the accessional step of segmentation and can naturally deal with various volume estimation tasks. Moreover, they are extremely flexible to be used for volume estimation of either joint bi-ventricles (LV and RV) or individual LV/RV. We comparatively study the performance of direct methods on cardiac ventricular volume estimation by comparing with segmentation based methods. Experimental results show that direct estimation methods provide more accurate estimation of cardiac ventricular volumes than segmentation based methods. This indicates that direct estimation methods not only provide a convenient and mature clinical tool for cardiac volume estimation but also enables diagnosis of cardiac diseases to be conducted in a more efficient and reliable way.

Neurology objective structured clinical examination reliability using generalizability theory

PubMed Central

Park, Yoon Soo; Lukas, Rimas V.; Brorson, James R.

2015-01-01

Objectives: This study examines factors affecting reliability, or consistency of assessment scores, from an objective structured clinical examination (OSCE) in neurology through generalizability theory (G theory). Methods: Data include assessments from a multistation OSCE taken by 194 medical students at the completion of a neurology clerkship. Facets evaluated in this study include cases, domains, and items. Domains refer to areas of skill (or constructs) that the OSCE measures. G theory is used to estimate variance components associated with each facet, derive reliability, and project the number of cases required to obtain a reliable (consistent, precise) score. Results: Reliability using G theory is moderate (Φ coefficient = 0.61, G coefficient = 0.64). Performance is similar across cases but differs by the particular domain, such that the majority of variance is attributed to the domain. Projections in reliability estimates reveal that students need to participate in 3 OSCE cases in order to increase reliability beyond the 0.70 threshold. Conclusions: This novel use of G theory in evaluating an OSCE in neurology provides meaningful measurement characteristics of the assessment. Differing from prior work in other medical specialties, the cases students were randomly assigned did not influence their OSCE score; rather, scores varied in expected fashion by domain assessed. PMID:26432851

Problems associated with estimating ground water discharge and recharge from stream-discharge records

USGS Publications Warehouse

Halford, K.J.; Mayer, G.C.

2000-01-01

Ground water discharge and recharge frequently have been estimated with hydrograph-separation techniques, but the critical assumptions of the techniques have not been investigated. The critical assumptions are that the hydraulic characteristics of the contributing aquifer (recession index) can be estimated from stream-discharge records; that periods of exclusively ground water discharge can be reliably identified; and that stream-discharge peaks approximate the magnitude and tinting of recharge events. The first assumption was tested by estimating the recession index from st earn-discharge hydrographs, ground water hydrographs, and hydraulic diffusivity estimates from aquifer tests in basins throughout the eastern United States and Montana. The recession index frequently could not be estimated reliably from stream-discharge records alone because many of the estimates of the recession index were greater than 1000 days. The ratio of stream discharge during baseflow periods was two to 36 times greater than the maximum expected range of ground water discharge at 12 of the 13 field sites. The identification of the ground water component of stream-discharge records was ambiguous because drainage from bank-storage, wetlands, surface water bodies, soils, and snowpacks frequently exceeded ground water discharge and also decreased exponentially during recession periods. The timing and magnitude of recharge events could not be ascertained from stream-discharge records at any of the sites investigated because recharge events were not directly correlated with stream peaks. When used alone, the recession-curve-displacement method and other hydrograph-separation techniques are poor tools for estimating ground water discharge or recharge because the major assumptions of the methods are commonly and grossly violated. Multiple, alternative methods of estimating ground water discharge and recharge should be used because of the uncertainty associated with any one technique.

Evaluation of a Class of Simple and Effective Uncertainty Methods for Sparse Samples of Random Variables and Functions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Romero, Vicente; Bonney, Matthew; Schroeder, Benjamin

When very few samples of a random quantity are available from a source distribution of unknown shape, it is usually not possible to accurately infer the exact distribution from which the data samples come. Under-estimation of important quantities such as response variance and failure probabilities can result. For many engineering purposes, including design and risk analysis, we attempt to avoid under-estimation with a strategy to conservatively estimate (bound) these types of quantities -- without being overly conservative -- when only a few samples of a random quantity are available from model predictions or replicate experiments. This report examines a classmore » of related sparse-data uncertainty representation and inference approaches that are relatively simple, inexpensive, and effective. Tradeoffs between the methods' conservatism, reliability, and risk versus number of data samples (cost) are quantified with multi-attribute metrics use d to assess method performance for conservative estimation of two representative quantities: central 95% of response; and 10 -4 probability of exceeding a response threshold in a tail of the distribution. Each method's performance is characterized with 10,000 random trials on a large number of diverse and challenging distributions. The best method and number of samples to use in a given circumstance depends on the uncertainty quantity to be estimated, the PDF character, and the desired reliability of bounding the true value. On the basis of this large data base and study, a strategy is proposed for selecting the method and number of samples for attaining reasonable credibility levels in bounding these types of quantities when sparse samples of random variables or functions are available from experiments or simulations.« less

Source Data Applicability Impacts on Epistemic Uncertainty for Launch Vehicle Fault Tree Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Al Hassan, Mohammad; Novack, Steven D.; Ring, Robert W.

2016-01-01

Launch vehicle systems are designed and developed using both heritage and new hardware. Design modifications to the heritage hardware to fit new functional system requirements can impact the applicability of heritage reliability data. Risk estimates for newly designed systems must be developed from generic data sources such as commercially available reliability databases using reliability prediction methodologies, such as those addressed in MIL-HDBK-217F. Failure estimates must be converted from the generic environment to the specific operating environment of the system where it is used. In addition, some qualification of applicability for the data source to the current system should be made. Characterizing data applicability under these circumstances is crucial to developing model estimations that support confident decisions on design changes and trade studies. This paper will demonstrate a data-source applicability classification method for assigning uncertainty to a target vehicle based on the source and operating environment of the originating data. The source applicability is determined using heuristic guidelines while translation of operating environments is accomplished by applying statistical methods to MIL-HDK-217F tables. The paper will provide a case study example by translating Ground Benign (GB) and Ground Mobile (GM) to the Airborne Uninhabited Fighter (AUF) environment for three electronic components often found in space launch vehicle control systems. The classification method will be followed by uncertainty-importance routines to assess the need to for more applicable data to reduce uncertainty.

Simplified Technique for Predicting Offshore Pipeline Expansion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seo, J. H.; Kim, D. K.; Choi, H. S.; Yu, S. Y.; Park, K. S.

2018-06-01

In this study, we propose a method for estimating the amount of expansion that occurs in subsea pipelines, which could be applied in the design of robust structures that transport oil and gas from offshore wells. We begin with a literature review and general discussion of existing estimation methods and terminologies with respect to subsea pipelines. Due to the effects of high pressure and high temperature, the production of fluid from offshore wells is typically caused by physical deformation of subsea structures, e.g., expansion and contraction during the transportation process. In severe cases, vertical and lateral buckling occurs, which causes a significant negative impact on structural safety, and which is related to on-bottom stability, free-span, structural collapse, and many other factors. In addition, these factors may affect the production rate with respect to flow assurance, wax, and hydration, to name a few. In this study, we developed a simple and efficient method for generating a reliable pipe expansion design in the early stage, which can lead to savings in both cost and computation time. As such, in this paper, we propose an applicable diagram, which we call the standard dimensionless ratio (SDR) versus virtual anchor length (L A ) diagram, that utilizes an efficient procedure for estimating subsea pipeline expansion based on applied reliable scenarios. With this user guideline, offshore pipeline structural designers can reliably determine the amount of subsea pipeline expansion and the obtained results will also be useful for the installation, design, and maintenance of the subsea pipeline.

Comparison of sampling methodologies for nutrient monitoring in streams: uncertainties, costs and implications for mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Audet, J.; Martinsen, L.; Hasler, B.; de Jonge, H.; Karydi, E.; Ovesen, N. B.; Kronvang, B.

2014-07-01

Eutrophication of aquatic ecosystems caused by excess concentrations of nitrogen and phosphorus may have harmful consequences for biodiversity and poses a health risk to humans via the water supplies. Reduction of nitrogen and phosphorus losses to aquatic ecosystems involves implementation of costly measures, and reliable monitoring methods are therefore essential to select appropriate mitigation strategies and to evaluate their effects. Here, we compare the performances and costs of three methodologies for the monitoring of nutrients in rivers: grab sampling, time-proportional sampling and passive sampling using flow proportional samplers. Assuming time-proportional sampling to be the best estimate of the "true" nutrient load, our results showed that the risk of obtaining wrong total nutrient load estimates by passive samplers is high despite similar costs as the time-proportional sampling. Our conclusion is that for passive samplers to provide a reliable monitoring alternative, further development is needed. Grab sampling was the cheapest of the three methods and was more precise and accurate than passive sampling. We conclude that although monitoring employing time-proportional sampling is costly, its reliability precludes unnecessarily high implementation expenses.

Comparison of sampling methodologies for nutrient monitoring in streams: uncertainties, costs and implications for mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Audet, J.; Martinsen, L.; Hasler, B.; de Jonge, H.; Karydi, E.; Ovesen, N. B.; Kronvang, B.

2014-11-01

Eutrophication of aquatic ecosystems caused by excess concentrations of nitrogen and phosphorus may have harmful consequences for biodiversity and poses a health risk to humans via water supplies. Reduction of nitrogen and phosphorus losses to aquatic ecosystems involves implementation of costly measures, and reliable monitoring methods are therefore essential to select appropriate mitigation strategies and to evaluate their effects. Here, we compare the performances and costs of three methodologies for the monitoring of nutrients in rivers: grab sampling; time-proportional sampling; and passive sampling using flow-proportional samplers. Assuming hourly time-proportional sampling to be the best estimate of the "true" nutrient load, our results showed that the risk of obtaining wrong total nutrient load estimates by passive samplers is high despite similar costs as the time-proportional sampling. Our conclusion is that for passive samplers to provide a reliable monitoring alternative, further development is needed. Grab sampling was the cheapest of the three methods and was more precise and accurate than passive sampling. We conclude that although monitoring employing time-proportional sampling is costly, its reliability precludes unnecessarily high implementation expenses.

The Assumption of a Reliable Instrument and Other Pitfalls to Avoid When Considering the Reliability of Data

PubMed Central

Nimon, Kim; Zientek, Linda Reichwein; Henson, Robin K.

2012-01-01

The purpose of this article is to help researchers avoid common pitfalls associated with reliability including incorrectly assuming that (a) measurement error always attenuates observed score correlations, (b) different sources of measurement error originate from the same source, and (c) reliability is a function of instrumentation. To accomplish our purpose, we first describe what reliability is and why researchers should care about it with focus on its impact on effect sizes. Second, we review how reliability is assessed with comment on the consequences of cumulative measurement error. Third, we consider how researchers can use reliability generalization as a prescriptive method when designing their research studies to form hypotheses about whether or not reliability estimates will be acceptable given their sample and testing conditions. Finally, we discuss options that researchers may consider when faced with analyzing unreliable data. PMID:22518107

Reliability of the Walker Cranial Nonmetric Method and Implications for Sex Estimation.

PubMed

Lewis, Cheyenne J; Garvin, Heather M

2016-05-01

The cranial trait scoring method presented in Buikstra and Ubelaker (Standards for data collection from human skeletal remains. Fayetteville, AR: Arkansas Archeological Survey Research Series No. 44, 1994) and Walker (Am J Phys Anthropol, 136, 2008 and 39) is the most common nonmetric cranial sex estimation method utilized by physical and forensic anthropologists. As such, the reliability and accuracy of the method is vital to ensure its validity in forensic applications. In this study, inter- and intra-observer error rates for the Walker scoring method were calculated using a sample of U.S. White and Black individuals (n = 135). Cohen's weighted kappas, intraclass correlation coefficients, and percentage agreements indicate good agreement between trials and observers for all traits except the mental eminence. Slight disagreement in scoring, however, was found to impact sex classifications, leading to lower accuracy rates than those published by Walker. Furthermore, experience does appear to impact trait scoring and sex classification. The use of revised population-specific equations that avoid the mental eminence is highly recommended to minimize the potential for misclassifications. © 2016 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

Estimation of gingival crevicular blood glucose level for the screening of diabetes mellitus: A simple yet reliable method.

PubMed

Parihar, Sarita; Tripathi, Richik; Parihar, Ajit Vikram; Samadi, Fahad M; Chandra, Akhilesh; Bhavsar, Neeta

2016-01-01

This study was designed to assess the reliability of blood glucose level estimation in gingival crevicular blood(GCB) for screening diabetes mellitus. 70 patients were included in study. A randomized, double-blind clinical trial was performed. Among these, 39 patients were diabetic (including 4 patients who were diagnosed during the study) and rest 31 patients were non-diabetic. GCB obtained during routine periodontal examination was analyzed by glucometer to know blood glucose level. The same patient underwent for finger stick blood (FSB) glucose level estimation with glucometer and venous blood (VB) glucose level with standardized laboratory method as per American Diabetes Association Guidelines. 1 All the three blood glucose levels were compared. Periodontal parameters were also recorded including gingival index (GI) and probing pocket depth (PPD). A strong positive correlation ( r ) was observed between glucose levels of GCB with FSB and VB with the values of 0.986 and 0.972 in diabetic group and 0.820 and 0.721 in non-diabetic group. As well, the mean values of GI and PPD were more in diabetic group than non-diabetic group with the statistically significant difference ( p  < 0.005). GCB can be reliably used to measure the blood glucose level as the values were closest to glucose levels estimated by VB. The technique is safe, easy to perform and non-invasive to the patient and can increase the frequency of diagnosing diabetes during routine periodontal therapy.

Approximate Bayesian algorithm to estimate the basic reproduction number in an influenza pandemic using arrival times of imported cases.

PubMed

Chong, Ka Chun; Zee, Benny Chung Ying; Wang, Maggie Haitian

2018-04-10

In an influenza pandemic, arrival times of cases are a proxy of the epidemic size and disease transmissibility. Because of intense surveillance of travelers from infected countries, detection is more rapid and complete than on local surveillance. Travel information can provide a more reliable estimation of transmission parameters. We developed an Approximate Bayesian Computation algorithm to estimate the basic reproduction number (R 0 ) in addition to the reporting rate and unobserved epidemic start time, utilizing travel, and routine surveillance data in an influenza pandemic. A simulation was conducted to assess the sampling uncertainty. The estimation approach was further applied to the 2009 influenza A/H1N1 pandemic in Mexico as a case study. In the simulations, we showed that the estimation approach was valid and reliable in different simulation settings. We also found estimates of R 0 and the reporting rate to be 1.37 (95% Credible Interval [CI]: 1.26-1.42) and 4.9% (95% CI: 0.1%-18%), respectively, in the 2009 influenza pandemic in Mexico, which were robust to variations in the fixed parameters. The estimated R 0 was consistent with that in the literature. This method is useful for officials to obtain reliable estimates of disease transmissibility for strategic planning. We suggest that improvements to the flow of reporting for confirmed cases among patients arriving at different countries are required. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Selecting statistical model and optimum maintenance policy: a case study of hydraulic pump.

PubMed

Ruhi, S; Karim, M R

2016-01-01

Proper maintenance policy can play a vital role for effective investigation of product reliability. Every engineered object such as product, plant or infrastructure needs preventive and corrective maintenance. In this paper we look at a real case study. It deals with the maintenance of hydraulic pumps used in excavators by a mining company. We obtain the data that the owner had collected and carry out an analysis and building models for pump failures. The data consist of both failure and censored lifetimes of the hydraulic pump. Different competitive mixture models are applied to analyze a set of maintenance data of a hydraulic pump. Various characteristics of the mixture models, such as the cumulative distribution function, reliability function, mean time to failure, etc. are estimated to assess the reliability of the pump. Akaike Information Criterion, adjusted Anderson-Darling test statistic, Kolmogrov-Smirnov test statistic and root mean square error are considered to select the suitable models among a set of competitive models. The maximum likelihood estimation method via the EM algorithm is applied mainly for estimating the parameters of the models and reliability related quantities. In this study, it is found that a threefold mixture model (Weibull-Normal-Exponential) fits well for the hydraulic pump failures data set. This paper also illustrates how a suitable statistical model can be applied to estimate the optimum maintenance period at a minimum cost of a hydraulic pump.

Time Domain Estimation of Arterial Parameters using the Windkessel Model and the Monte Carlo Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gostuski, Vladimir; Pastore, Ignacio; Rodriguez Palacios, Gaspar; Vaca Diez, Gustavo; Moscoso-Vasquez, H. Marcela; Risk, Marcelo

2016-04-01

Numerous parameter estimation techniques exist for characterizing the arterial system using electrical circuit analogs. However, they are often limited by their requirements and usually high computational burdain. Therefore, a new method for estimating arterial parameters based on Monte Carlo simulation is proposed. A three element Windkessel model was used to represent the arterial system. The approach was to reduce the error between the calculated and physiological aortic pressure by randomly generating arterial parameter values, while keeping constant the arterial resistance. This last value was obtained for each subject using the arterial flow, and was a necessary consideration in order to obtain a unique set of values for the arterial compliance and peripheral resistance. The estimation technique was applied to in vivo data containing steady beats in mongrel dogs, and it reliably estimated Windkessel arterial parameters. Further, this method appears to be computationally efficient for on-line time-domain estimation of these parameters.

Age estimation by amino acid racemization in human teeth.

PubMed

Ohtani, Susumu; Yamamoto, Toshiharu

2010-11-01

When an unidentified body is found, it is essential to establish the personal identity of the body in addition to investigating the cause of death. Identification is one of the most important functions of forensic dentistry. Fingerprint, dental, and DNA analysis can be used to accurately identify a body. However, if no information is available for identification, age estimation can contribute to the resolution of a case. The authors have been using aspartic acid racemization rates in dentin (D-aspartic acid/L-aspartic acid: D/L Asp) as an index for age estimation and have obtained satisfactory results. We report five cases of age estimation using the racemization method. In all five cases, estimated ages were accurate within a range ±3 years. We conclude that the racemization method is a reliable and practical method for estimating age. © 2010 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

Challenges of Estimating the Annual Caseload of Severe Acute Malnutrition: The Case of Niger

PubMed Central

Hallarou, Mahaman; Gérard, Jean-Christophe; Donnen, Philippe; Macq, Jean

2016-01-01

Introduction Reliable prospective estimates of annual severe acute malnutrition (SAM) caseloads for treatment are needed for policy decisions and planning of quality services in the context of competing public health priorities and limited resources. This paper compares the reliability of SAM caseloads of children 6–59 months of age in Niger estimated from prevalence at the start of the year and counted from incidence at the end of the year. Methods Secondary data from two health districts for 2012 and the country overall for 2013 were used to calculate annual caseload of SAM. Prevalence and coverage were extracted from survey reports, and incidence from weekly surveillance systems. Results The prospective caseload estimate derived from prevalence and duration of illness underestimated the true burden. Similar incidence was derived from two weekly surveillance systems, but differed from that obtained from the monthly system. Incidence conversion factors were two to five times higher than recommended. Discussion Obtaining reliable prospective caseloads was challenging because prevalence is unsuitable for estimating incidence of SAM. Different SAM indicators identified different SAM populations, and duration of illness, expected contact coverage and population figures were inaccurate. The quality of primary data measurement, recording and reporting affected incidence numbers from surveillance. Coverage estimated in population surveys was rarely available, and coverage obtained by comparing admissions with prospective caseload estimates was unrealistic or impractical. Conclusions Caseload estimates derived from prevalence are unreliable and should be used with caution. Policy and service decisions that depend on these numbers may weaken performance of service delivery. Niger may improve SAM surveillance by simplifying and improving primary data collection and methods using innovative information technologies for single data entry at the first contact with the health system. Lessons may be relevant for countries with a high burden of SAM, including for targeted emergency responses. PMID:27606677

Estimation of the oxalate content of foods and daily oxalate intake

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Holmes, R. P.; Kennedy, M.

2000-01-01

BACKGROUND: The amount of oxalate ingested may be an important risk factor in the development of idiopathic calcium oxalate nephrolithiasis. Reliable food tables listing the oxalate content of foods are currently not available. The aim of this research was to develop an accurate and reliable method to measure the food content of oxalate. METHODS: Capillary electrophoresis (CE) and ion chromatography (IC) were compared as direct techniques for the estimation of the oxalate content of foods. Foods were thoroughly homogenized in acid, heat extracted, and clarified by centrifugation and filtration before dilution in water for analysis. Five individuals consuming self-selected diets maintained food records for three days to determine their mean daily oxalate intakes. RESULTS: Both techniques were capable of adequately measuring the oxalate in foods with a significant oxalate content. With foods of very low oxalate content (<1.8 mg/100 g), IC was more reliable than CE. The mean daily intake of oxalate by the five individuals tested was 152 +/- 83 mg, ranging from 44 to 352 mg/day. CONCLUSIONS: CE appears to be the method of choice over IC for estimating the oxalate content of foods with a medium (>10 mg/100 g) to high oxalate content due to a faster analysis time and lower running costs, whereas IC may be better suited for the analysis of foods with a low oxalate content. Accurate estimates of the oxalate content of foods should permit the role of dietary oxalate in urinary oxalate excretion and stone formation to be clarified. Other factors, apart from the amount of oxalate ingested, appear to exert a major influence over the amount of oxalate excreted in the urine.

Population trends, survival, and sampling methodologies for a population of Rana draytonii

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fellers, Gary M.; Kleeman, Patrick M.; Miller, David A.W.; Halstead, Brian J.

2017-01-01

Estimating population trends provides valuable information for resource managers, but monitoring programs face trade-offs between the quality and quantity of information gained and the number of sites surveyed. We compared the effectiveness of monitoring techniques for estimating population trends of Rana draytonii (California Red-legged Frog) at Point Reyes National Seashore, California, USA, over a 13-yr period. Our primary goals were to: 1) estimate trends for a focal pond at Point Reyes National Seashore, and 2) evaluate whether egg mass counts could reliably estimate an index of abundance relative to more-intensive capture–mark–recapture methods. Capture–mark–recapture (CMR) surveys of males indicated a stable population from 2005 to 2009, despite low annual apparent survival (26.3%). Egg mass counts from 2000 to 2012 indicated that despite some large fluctuations, the breeding female population was generally stable or increasing, with annual abundance varying between 26 and 130 individuals. Minor modifications to egg mass counts, such as marking egg masses, can allow estimation of egg mass detection probabilities necessary to convert counts to abundance estimates, even when closure of egg mass abundance cannot be assumed within a breeding season. High egg mass detection probabilities (mean per-survey detection probability = 0.98 [0.89–0.99]) indicate that egg mass surveys can be an efficient and reliable method for monitoring population trends of federally threatened R. draytonii. Combining egg mass surveys to estimate trends at many sites with CMR methods to evaluate factors affecting adult survival at focal populations is likely a profitable path forward to enhance understanding and conservation of R. draytonii.

A Comparison of Four Methods of IRT Subscoring

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

de la Torre, Jimmy; Song, Hao; Hong, Yuan

2011-01-01

Lack of sufficient reliability is the primary impediment for generating and reporting subtest scores. Several current methods of subscore estimation do so either by incorporating the correlational structure among the subtest abilities or by using the examinee's performance on the overall test. This article conducted a systematic comparison of four…

A simple method to estimate threshold friction velocity of wind erosion in the field

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Nearly all wind erosion models require the specification of threshold friction velocity (TFV). Yet determining TFV of wind erosion in field conditions is difficult as it depends on both soil characteristics and distribution of vegetation or other roughness elements. While several reliable methods ha...

METAPHOR: Probability density estimation for machine learning based photometric redshifts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amaro, V.; Cavuoti, S.; Brescia, M.; Vellucci, C.; Tortora, C.; Longo, G.

2017-06-01

We present METAPHOR (Machine-learning Estimation Tool for Accurate PHOtometric Redshifts), a method able to provide a reliable PDF for photometric galaxy redshifts estimated through empirical techniques. METAPHOR is a modular workflow, mainly based on the MLPQNA neural network as internal engine to derive photometric galaxy redshifts, but giving the possibility to easily replace MLPQNA with any other method to predict photo-z's and their PDF. We present here the results about a validation test of the workflow on the galaxies from SDSS-DR9, showing also the universality of the method by replacing MLPQNA with KNN and Random Forest models. The validation test include also a comparison with the PDF's derived from a traditional SED template fitting method (Le Phare).

Laser reflectance measurement for the online monitoring of Chlorella sorokiniana biomass concentration.

PubMed

López Expósito, Patricio; Blanco Suárez, Angeles; Negro Álvarez, Carlos

2017-02-10

Fast and reliable methods to determine biomass concentration are necessary to facilitate the large scale production of microalgae. A method for the rapid estimation of Chlorella sorokiniana biomass concentration was developed. The method translates the suspension particle size spectrum gathered though laser reflectance into biomass concentration by means of two machine learning modelling techniques. In each case, the model hyper-parameters were selected applying a simulated annealing algorithm. The results show that dry biomass concentration can be estimated with a very good accuracy (R 2 =0.87). The presented method seems to be suited to perform fast estimations of biomass concentration in suspensions of microalgae cultivated in moderately turbid media with tendency to aggregate. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Automated startup of the MIT research reactor

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kwok, K.S.

1992-01-01

This summary describes the development, implementation, and testing of a generic method for performing automated startups of nuclear reactors described by space-independent kinetics under conditions of closed-loop digital control. The technique entails first obtaining a reliable estimate of the reactor's initial degree of subcriticality and then substituting that estimate into a model-based control law so as to permit a power increase from subcritical on a demanded trajectory. The estimation of subcriticality is accomplished by application of the perturbed reactivity method. The shutdown reactor is perturbed by the insertion of reactivity at a known rate. Observation of the resulting period permitsmore » determination of the initial degree of subcriticality. A major advantage to this method is that repeated estimates are obtained of the same quantity. Hence, statistical methods can be applied to improve the quality of the calculation.« less

Bayesian forecasting and uncertainty quantifying of stream flows using Metropolis–Hastings Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm

DOE PAGES

Wang, Hongrui; Wang, Cheng; Wang, Ying; ...

2017-04-05

This paper presents a Bayesian approach using Metropolis-Hastings Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm and applies this method for daily river flow rate forecast and uncertainty quantification for Zhujiachuan River using data collected from Qiaotoubao Gage Station and other 13 gage stations in Zhujiachuan watershed in China. The proposed method is also compared with the conventional maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) for parameter estimation and quantification of associated uncertainties. While the Bayesian method performs similarly in estimating the mean value of daily flow rate, it performs over the conventional MLE method on uncertainty quantification, providing relatively narrower reliable interval than the MLEmore » confidence interval and thus more precise estimation by using the related information from regional gage stations. As a result, the Bayesian MCMC method might be more favorable in the uncertainty analysis and risk management.« less

A dynamic programming approach to estimate the capacity value of energy storage

DOE PAGES

Sioshansi, Ramteen; Madaeni, Seyed Hossein; Denholm, Paul

2013-09-17

Here, we present a method to estimate the capacity value of storage. Our method uses a dynamic program to model the effect of power system outages on the operation and state of charge of storage in subsequent periods. We combine the optimized dispatch from the dynamic program with estimated system loss of load probabilities to compute a probability distribution for the state of charge of storage in each period. This probability distribution can be used as a forced outage rate for storage in standard reliability-based capacity value estimation methods. Our proposed method has the advantage over existing approximations that itmore » explicitly captures the effect of system shortage events on the state of charge of storage in subsequent periods. We also use a numerical case study, based on five utility systems in the U.S., to demonstrate our technique and compare it to existing approximation methods.« less

Prediction of digestibility and energy concentration of winter pasture forage and herbage of low-input grassland--a comparison of methods.

PubMed

Opitz v Boberfeld, W; Theobald, P C; Laser, H

2003-06-01

Regarding the estimation of the energy concentration or digestibility of herb-dominated forage and plant samples from winter pastures, it could be expected that the estimation is only reliable when in vitro methods with rumen fluid as inoculum (= gas production techniques) are used. For the verification of this thesis based on logical reflections, an in vitro-method with rumen fluid added as inoculum, as well as chemical, and enzymatic methods were applied under consideration of existing estimating functions. As a possible reason for the observed divergence of the methods, effects of fungal infections or, respectively, secondary compounds in herbs are discussed. At the present state of knowledge, it is adequate to estimate the energy concentration in vitro by gas tests, as far as fattening types like suckler cows and beef cattle are concerned, maybe in contrast to the forage evaluation for dairy cows.

Inter-Rater Reliability of Provider Interpretations of Irritable Bowel Syndrome Food and Symptom Journals

PubMed Central

Chung, Chia-Fang; Xu, Kaiyuan; Dong, Yi; Schenk, Jeanette M.; Cain, Kevin; Munson, Sean; Heitkemper, Margaret M.

2017-01-01

There are currently no standardized methods for identifying trigger food(s) from irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) food and symptom journals. The primary aim of this study was to assess the inter-rater reliability of providers’ interpretations of IBS journals. A second aim was to describe whether these interpretations varied for each patient. Eight providers reviewed 17 IBS journals and rated how likely key food groups (fermentable oligo-di-monosaccharides and polyols, high-calorie, gluten, caffeine, high-fiber) were to trigger IBS symptoms for each patient. Agreement of trigger food ratings was calculated using Krippendorff’s α-reliability estimate. Providers were also asked to write down recommendations they would give to each patient. Estimates of agreement of trigger food likelihood ratings were poor (average α = 0.07). Most providers gave similar trigger food likelihood ratings for over half the food groups. Four providers gave the exact same written recommendation(s) (range 3–7) to over half the patients. Inter-rater reliability of provider interpretations of IBS food and symptom journals was poor. Providers favored certain trigger food likelihood ratings and written recommendations. This supports the need for a more standardized method for interpreting these journals and/or more rigorous techniques to accurately identify personalized IBS food triggers. PMID:29113044

Comparison of age estimation between 15-25 years using a modified form of Demirjian’s ten stage method and two teeth regression formula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amiroh; Priaminiarti, M.; Syahraini, S. I.

2017-08-01

Age estimation of individuals, both dead and living, is important for victim identification and legal certainty. The Demirjian method uses the third molar for age estimation of individuals above 15 years old. The aim is to compare age estimation between 15-25 years using two Demirjian methods. Development stage of third molars in panoramic radiographs of 50 male and female samples were assessed by two observers using Demirjian’s ten stages and two teeth regression formula. Reliability was calculated using Cohen’s kappa coefficient and the significance of the observations was obtained from Wilcoxon tests. Deviations of age estimation were calculated using various methods. The deviation of age estimation with the two teeth regression formula was ±1.090 years; with ten stages, it was ±1.191 years. The deviation of age estimation using the two teeth regression formula was less than with the ten stages method. The age estimations using the two teeth regression formula or the ten stages method are significantly different until the age of 25, but they can be applied up to the age of 22.

Urban air quality estimation study, phase 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Diamante, J. M.; Englar, T. S., Jr.; Jazwinski, A. H.

1976-01-01

Possibilities are explored for applying estimation theory to the analysis, interpretation, and use of air quality measurements in conjunction with simulation models to provide a cost effective method of obtaining reliable air quality estimates for wide urban areas. The physical phenomenology of real atmospheric plumes from elevated localized sources is discussed. A fluctuating plume dispersion model is derived. Individual plume parameter formulations are developed along with associated a priori information. Individual measurement models are developed.

Variable-image videoconfrontation as a method of assessing body image: a technical report and comparison with similar techniques.

PubMed

McCrea, C; Neil, W J; Flanigan, J W; Summerfield, A B

1988-08-01

In this study a new modified videosystem, designed for measuring body-image, was evaluated alongside the major size-estimation measure, namely, the visual size-estimation apparatus. The advantages afforded by a videosystem which allows independent adjustment of size and height/width proportions were highlighted, and its validity and reliability were examined, based on estimates made by obese, normal weight, and pregnant groups.

Development of a Method to Observe Preschoolers' Packed Lunches in Early Care and Education Centers.

PubMed

Sweitzer, Sara J; Byrd-Williams, Courtney E; Ranjit, Nalini; Romo-Palafox, Maria Jose; Briley, Margaret E; Roberts-Gray, Cynthia R; Hoelscher, Deanna M

2015-08-01

As early childhood education (ECE) centers become a more common setting for nutrition interventions, a variety of data collection methods are required, based on the center foodservice. ECE centers that require parents to send in meals and/or snacks from home present a unique challenge for accurate nutrition estimation and data collection. We present an observational methodology for recording the contents and temperature of preschool-aged children's lunchboxes and data to support a 2-day vs a 3-day collection period. Lunchbox observers were trained in visual estimation of foods based on Child and Adult Care Food Program and MyPlate servings and household recommended measures. Trainees weighed and measured foods commonly found in preschool-aged children's lunchboxes and practiced recording accurate descriptions and food temperatures. Training included test assessments of whole-grain bread products, mixed dishes such as macaroni and cheese, and a variety of sandwich preparations. Validity of the estimation method was tested by comparing estimated to actual amounts for several distinct food types. Reliability was assessed by computing the intraclass correlation coefficient for each observer as well as an interrater reliability coefficient across observers. To compare 2- and 3-day observations, 2 of the 3 days of observations were randomly selected for each child and analyzed as a separate dataset. Linear model estimated mean and standard error of whole grains, fruits and vegetables, and amounts of energy, carbohydrates, protein, total fat, saturated fat, dietary fiber, thiamin, riboflavin, niacin, vitamins A and C, calcium, iron, sodium, and dietary fiber per lunch were compared across the 2- and 3-day observation datasets. The mean estimated amounts across 11 observers were statistically indistinguishable from the measured portion size for each of the 41 test foods, implying that the visual estimation measurement method was valid: intraobserver intraclass correlation coefficients ranged from 0.951 (95% CI 0.91 to 0.97) to 1.0. Across observers, the interrater reliability correlation coefficient was estimated at 0.979 (95% CI 0.957 to 0.993). Comparison of servings of fruits, vegetables, and whole grains showed no significant differences for serving size or mean energy and nutrient content between 2- and 3-day lunch observations. The methodology is a valid and reliable option for use in research and practice that requires observing and assessing the contents and portion sizes of food items in preschool-aged children's lunchboxes in an ECE setting. The use of visual observation and estimation with Child and Adult Care Food Program and MyPlate serving sizes and household measures over 2 random days of data collection enables food handling to be minimized while obtaining an accurate record of the variety and quantities of foods that young children are exposed to at lunch time. Copyright © 2015 Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Reliability Problems of the Datum: Solutions for Questionnaire Responses.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bastick, Tony

Questionnaires often ask for estimates, and these estimates are given with different reliabilities. It is difficult to know the different reliabilities of single estimates and to take these into account in subsequent analyses. This paper contains a practical example to show that not taking the reliability of different responses into account can…

Analysis of vestibular schwannoma size in multiple dimensions: a comparative cohort study of different measurement techniques.

PubMed

Varughese, J K; Wentzel-Larsen, T; Vassbotn, F; Moen, G; Lund-Johansen, M

2010-04-01

In this volumetric study of the vestibular schwannoma, we evaluated the accuracy and reliability of several approximation methods that are in use, and determined the minimum volume difference that needs to be measured for it to be attributable to an actual difference rather than a retest error. We also found empirical proportionality coefficients for the different methods. DESIGN/SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Methodological study with investigation of three different VS measurement methods compared to a reference method that was based on serial slice volume estimates. These volume estimates were based on: (i) one single diameter, (ii) three orthogonal diameters or (iii) the maximal slice area. Altogether 252 T1-weighted MRI images with gadolinium contrast, from 139 VS patients, were examined. The retest errors, in terms of relative percentages, were determined by undertaking repeated measurements on 63 scans for each method. Intraclass correlation coefficients were used to assess the agreement between each of the approximation methods and the reference method. The tendency for approximation methods to systematically overestimate/underestimate different-sized tumours was also assessed, with the help of Bland-Altman plots. The most commonly used approximation method, the maximum diameter, was the least reliable measurement method and has inherent weaknesses that need to be considered. This includes greater retest errors than area-based measurements (25% and 15%, respectively), and that it was the only approximation method that could not easily be converted into volumetric units. Area-based measurements can furthermore be more reliable for smaller volume differences than diameter-based measurements. All our findings suggest that the maximum diameter should not be used as an approximation method. We propose the use of measurement modalities that take into account growth in multiple dimensions instead.

Simulation analyses of space use: Home range estimates, variability, and sample size

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bekoff, Marc; Mech, L. David

1984-01-01

Simulations of space use by animals were run to determine the relationship among home range area estimates, variability, and sample size (number of locations). As sample size increased, home range size increased asymptotically, whereas variability decreased among mean home range area estimates generated by multiple simulations for the same sample size. Our results suggest that field workers should ascertain between 100 and 200 locations in order to estimate reliably home range area. In some cases, this suggested guideline is higher than values found in the few published studies in which the relationship between home range area and number of locations is addressed. Sampling differences for small species occupying relatively small home ranges indicate that fewer locations may be sufficient to allow for a reliable estimate of home range. Intraspecific variability in social status (group member, loner, resident, transient), age, sex, reproductive condition, and food resources also have to be considered, as do season, habitat, and differences in sampling and analytical methods. Comparative data still are needed.

A fast signal subspace approach for the determination of absolute levels from phased microphone array measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarradj, Ennes

2010-04-01

Phased microphone arrays are used in a variety of applications for the estimation of acoustic source location and spectra. The popular conventional delay-and-sum beamforming methods used with such arrays suffer from inaccurate estimations of absolute source levels and in some cases also from low resolution. Deconvolution approaches such as DAMAS have better performance, but require high computational effort. A fast beamforming method is proposed that can be used in conjunction with a phased microphone array in applications with focus on the correct quantitative estimation of acoustic source spectra. This method bases on an eigenvalue decomposition of the cross spectral matrix of microphone signals and uses the eigenvalues from the signal subspace to estimate absolute source levels. The theoretical basis of the method is discussed together with an assessment of the quality of the estimation. Experimental tests using a loudspeaker setup and an airfoil trailing edge noise setup in an aeroacoustic wind tunnel show that the proposed method is robust and leads to reliable quantitative results.

Assessing Interval Estimation Methods for Hill Model ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The Hill model of concentration-response is ubiquitous in toxicology, perhaps because its parameters directly relate to biologically significant metrics of toxicity such as efficacy and potency. Point estimates of these parameters obtained through least squares regression or maximum likelihood are commonly used in high-throughput risk assessment, but such estimates typically fail to include reliable information concerning confidence in (or precision of) the estimates. To address this issue, we examined methods for assessing uncertainty in Hill model parameter estimates derived from concentration-response data. In particular, using a sample of ToxCast concentration-response data sets, we applied four methods for obtaining interval estimates that are based on asymptotic theory, bootstrapping (two varieties), and Bayesian parameter estimation, and then compared the results. These interval estimation methods generally did not agree, so we devised a simulation study to assess their relative performance. We generated simulated data by constructing four statistical error models capable of producing concentration-response data sets comparable to those observed in ToxCast. We then applied the four interval estimation methods to the simulated data and compared the actual coverage of the interval estimates to the nominal coverage (e.g., 95%) in order to quantify performance of each of the methods in a variety of cases (i.e., different values of the true Hill model paramet

Computer-Aided Reliability Estimation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bavuso, S. J.; Stiffler, J. J.; Bryant, L. A.; Petersen, P. L.

1986-01-01

CARE III (Computer-Aided Reliability Estimation, Third Generation) helps estimate reliability of complex, redundant, fault-tolerant systems. Program specifically designed for evaluation of fault-tolerant avionics systems. However, CARE III general enough for use in evaluation of other systems as well.

Maximum likelihood solution for inclination-only data in paleomagnetism

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arason, P.; Levi, S.

2010-08-01

We have developed a new robust maximum likelihood method for estimating the unbiased mean inclination from inclination-only data. In paleomagnetic analysis, the arithmetic mean of inclination-only data is known to introduce a shallowing bias. Several methods have been introduced to estimate the unbiased mean inclination of inclination-only data together with measures of the dispersion. Some inclination-only methods were designed to maximize the likelihood function of the marginal Fisher distribution. However, the exact analytical form of the maximum likelihood function is fairly complicated, and all the methods require various assumptions and approximations that are often inappropriate. For some steep and dispersed data sets, these methods provide estimates that are significantly displaced from the peak of the likelihood function to systematically shallower inclination. The problem locating the maximum of the likelihood function is partly due to difficulties in accurately evaluating the function for all values of interest, because some elements of the likelihood function increase exponentially as precision parameters increase, leading to numerical instabilities. In this study, we succeeded in analytically cancelling exponential elements from the log-likelihood function, and we are now able to calculate its value anywhere in the parameter space and for any inclination-only data set. Furthermore, we can now calculate the partial derivatives of the log-likelihood function with desired accuracy, and locate the maximum likelihood without the assumptions required by previous methods. To assess the reliability and accuracy of our method, we generated large numbers of random Fisher-distributed data sets, for which we calculated mean inclinations and precision parameters. The comparisons show that our new robust Arason-Levi maximum likelihood method is the most reliable, and the mean inclination estimates are the least biased towards shallow values.

Responsiveness to change and reliability of measurement of radiographic joint space width in osteoarthritis of the knee: a systematic review.

PubMed

Reichmann, W M; Maillefert, J F; Hunter, D J; Katz, J N; Conaghan, P G; Losina, E

2011-05-01

The goal of this systematic review was to report the responsiveness to change and reliability of conventional radiographic joint space width (JSW) measurement. We searched the PubMed and Embase databases using the following search criteria: [osteoarthritis (OA) (MeSH)] AND (knee) AND (X-ray OR radiography OR diagnostic imaging OR radiology OR disease progression) AND (joint space OR JSW or disease progression). We assessed responsiveness by calculating the standardized response mean (SRM). We assessed reliability using intra- and inter-reader intra-class correlation (ICC) and coefficient of variation (CV). Random-effects models were used to pool results from multiple studies. Results were stratified by study duration, design, techniques of obtaining radiographs, and measurement method. We identified 998 articles using the search terms. Of these, 32 articles (43 estimates) reported data on responsiveness of JSW measurement and 24 (50 estimates) articles reported data on measures of reliability. The overall pooled SRM was 0.33 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.26, 0.41]. Responsiveness of change in JSW measurement was improved substantially in studies of greater than 2 years duration (0.57). Further stratifying this result in studies of greater than 2 years duration, radiographs obtained with the knee in a flexed position yielded an SRM of 0.71. Pooled intra-reader ICC was estimated at 0.97 (95% CI: 0.92, 1.00) and the intra-reader CV estimated at 3.0 (95% CI: 2.0, 4.0). Pooled inter-reader ICC was estimated at 0.93 (95% CI: 0.86, 0.99) and the inter-reader CV estimated at 3.4% (95% CI: 1.3%, 5.5%). Measurement of JSW obtained from radiographs in persons with knee is reliable. These data will be useful to clinicians who are planning RCTs where the change in minimum JSW is the outcome of interest. Copyright © 2011 Osteoarthritis Research Society International. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Smartphone assessment of knee flexion compared to radiographic standards.

PubMed

Dietz, Matthew J; Sprando, Daniel; Hanselman, Andrew E; Regier, Michael D; Frye, Benjamin M

2017-03-01

Measuring knee range of motion (ROM) is an important assessment for the outcomes of total knee arthroplasty. Recent technological advances have led to the development and use of accelerometer-based smartphone applications to measure knee ROM. The purpose of this study was to develop, standardize, and validate methods of utilizing smartphone accelerometer technology compared to radiographic standards, visual estimation, and goniometric evaluation. Participants used visual estimation, a long-arm goniometer, and a smartphone accelerometer to determine range of motion of a cadaveric lower extremity; these results were compared to radiographs taken at the same angles. The optimal smartphone position was determined to be on top of the leg at the distal femur and proximal tibia location. Between methods, it was found that the smartphone and goniometer were comparably reliable in measuring knee flexion (ICC=0.94; 95% CI: 0.91-0.96). Visual estimation was found to be the least reliable method of measurement. The results suggested that the smartphone accelerometer was non-inferior when compared to the other measurement techniques, demonstrated similar deviations from radiographic standards, and did not appear to be influenced by the person performing the measurements or the girth of the extremity. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Dutch population specific sex estimation formulae using the proximal femur.

PubMed

Colman, K L; Janssen, M C L; Stull, K E; van Rijn, R R; Oostra, R J; de Boer, H H; van der Merwe, A E

2018-05-01

Sex estimation techniques are frequently applied in forensic anthropological analyses of unidentified human skeletal remains. While morphological sex estimation methods are able to endure population differences, the classification accuracy of metric sex estimation methods are population-specific. No metric sex estimation method currently exists for the Dutch population. The purpose of this study is to create Dutch population specific sex estimation formulae by means of osteometric analyses of the proximal femur. Since the Netherlands lacks a representative contemporary skeletal reference population, 2D plane reconstructions, derived from clinical computed tomography (CT) data, were used as an alternative source for a representative reference sample. The first part of this study assesses the intra- and inter-observer error, or reliability, of twelve measurements of the proximal femur. The technical error of measurement (TEM) and relative TEM (%TEM) were calculated using 26 dry adult femora. In addition, the agreement, or accuracy, between the dry bone and CT-based measurements was determined by percent agreement. Only reliable and accurate measurements were retained for the logistic regression sex estimation formulae; a training set (n=86) was used to create the models while an independent testing set (n=28) was used to validate the models. Due to high levels of multicollinearity, only single variable models were created. Cross-validated classification accuracies ranged from 86% to 92%. The high cross-validated classification accuracies indicate that the developed formulae can contribute to the biological profile and specifically in sex estimation of unidentified human skeletal remains in the Netherlands. Furthermore, the results indicate that clinical CT data can be a valuable alternative source of data when representative skeletal collections are unavailable. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Inference for Stochastic Chemical Kinetics Using Moment Equations and System Size Expansion.

PubMed

Fröhlich, Fabian; Thomas, Philipp; Kazeroonian, Atefeh; Theis, Fabian J; Grima, Ramon; Hasenauer, Jan

2016-07-01

Quantitative mechanistic models are valuable tools for disentangling biochemical pathways and for achieving a comprehensive understanding of biological systems. However, to be quantitative the parameters of these models have to be estimated from experimental data. In the presence of significant stochastic fluctuations this is a challenging task as stochastic simulations are usually too time-consuming and a macroscopic description using reaction rate equations (RREs) is no longer accurate. In this manuscript, we therefore consider moment-closure approximation (MA) and the system size expansion (SSE), which approximate the statistical moments of stochastic processes and tend to be more precise than macroscopic descriptions. We introduce gradient-based parameter optimization methods and uncertainty analysis methods for MA and SSE. Efficiency and reliability of the methods are assessed using simulation examples as well as by an application to data for Epo-induced JAK/STAT signaling. The application revealed that even if merely population-average data are available, MA and SSE improve parameter identifiability in comparison to RRE. Furthermore, the simulation examples revealed that the resulting estimates are more reliable for an intermediate volume regime. In this regime the estimation error is reduced and we propose methods to determine the regime boundaries. These results illustrate that inference using MA and SSE is feasible and possesses a high sensitivity.

Inference for Stochastic Chemical Kinetics Using Moment Equations and System Size Expansion

PubMed Central

Thomas, Philipp; Kazeroonian, Atefeh; Theis, Fabian J.; Grima, Ramon; Hasenauer, Jan

2016-01-01

Quantitative mechanistic models are valuable tools for disentangling biochemical pathways and for achieving a comprehensive understanding of biological systems. However, to be quantitative the parameters of these models have to be estimated from experimental data. In the presence of significant stochastic fluctuations this is a challenging task as stochastic simulations are usually too time-consuming and a macroscopic description using reaction rate equations (RREs) is no longer accurate. In this manuscript, we therefore consider moment-closure approximation (MA) and the system size expansion (SSE), which approximate the statistical moments of stochastic processes and tend to be more precise than macroscopic descriptions. We introduce gradient-based parameter optimization methods and uncertainty analysis methods for MA and SSE. Efficiency and reliability of the methods are assessed using simulation examples as well as by an application to data for Epo-induced JAK/STAT signaling. The application revealed that even if merely population-average data are available, MA and SSE improve parameter identifiability in comparison to RRE. Furthermore, the simulation examples revealed that the resulting estimates are more reliable for an intermediate volume regime. In this regime the estimation error is reduced and we propose methods to determine the regime boundaries. These results illustrate that inference using MA and SSE is feasible and possesses a high sensitivity. PMID:27447730

Direct measurement of the breakdown slip from near-fault strong motion data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cruz-Atienza, V. M.; Olsen, K. B.; Dalguer, L. A.

2007-12-01

Obtaining reliable estimates of the frictional behaviour on earthquake faults is a fundamental task, particularly the breakdown slip Dc, which has an important role on rupture propagation through the earthquake energy budget. Several studies have attempted to estimate Dc indirectly from kinematical analysis of fault ruptures (e.g., Ide and Takeo, JGR, 1997). However, such estimates are complicated because of both the limited band-width of the observed seismograms used to image the rupture process and the rapid decay of high frequencies with distance from the fault. Mikumo et al. (BSSA, 2003) proposed a method to estimate Dc on the fault plane as the slip at the time of the peak sliprate function (Dc'). Fukuyama and Mikumo (GRL, 2007) proposed to extend this method beyond the fault plane, by estimating Dc as twice the rake-parallel particle displacement at the time of the peak particle velocity. The factor of two arises from an equal amount of opposite displacement on either side of the fault. They concluded that such method allows reliable Dc' estimates with negligible dependence on the perpendicular distance from the fault, and used it to obtain Dc' estimates for the 2000 M6.6 Tottori (0.3 m) and the 2002 M7.9 Denali (2.5 m) earthquakes. The study by Fukuyama and Mikumo was based on simple two-dimensional Green's functions in a homogeneous full space for an anti-plane kinematic crack, and suffers from three fundamental omissions: 1) the free surface and heterogeneous structure, 2) the finiteness of the rupture surface and 3) the dynamic rupture complexity of real 3D earthquakes. Here, we re-examine the methodology proposed by Fukuyama and Mikumo by means of a more realistic approach. We use spontaneous rupture propagation simulated by a recently developed and highly accurate approach, namely the staggered-grid split-node (SGSN) method in a fourth-order staggered- grid finite difference method (Dalguer and Day, JGR, 2007). We assume a vertical strike-slip fault governed by both linear and non-linear slip-weakening friction laws. Our results show that both the free surface and the stopping phases strongly affect Dc estimates. The particle motion recorded by surface instruments is amplified roughly by a factor of two due to the presence of the free surface. As a consequence, the method by Fukuyama and Mikumo over-estimates Dc when applied to strong motion data recorded on the earth's surface. Moreover, contrary to the results by Fukuyama and Mikumo, we observe a strong distance-dependence of the Dc estimates perpendicular to the fault. This variation includes a minimum near the fault, increasing up to about 140% of the target Dc value at a distance 2-3 km from the fault. At further distances from the fault the Dc estimate decreases to about 60% of the target value 10 km away. This distance dependence of the Dc estimate is presumably caused mainly by stopping phases propagating from the fault boundaries. Simulations in heterogeneous media including a low-velocity layer, intrinsic attenuation (Q) and stochastic initial stress conditions allow us to asses the reliability and uncertainty involved in the method proposed by Fukuyama and Mikumo. Dc estimates under these realistic conditions are important but remain below a factor of two in most of the cases we have analyzed. In summary, the accuracy of the method is strongly affected by the presence of the free surface, finite fault extent, and likely by complexity in the velocity structure and rupture propagation.

Measurement errors when estimating the vertical jump height with flight time using photocell devices: the example of Optojump.

PubMed

Attia, A; Dhahbi, W; Chaouachi, A; Padulo, J; Wong, D P; Chamari, K

2017-03-01

Common methods to estimate vertical jump height (VJH) are based on the measurements of flight time (FT) or vertical reaction force. This study aimed to assess the measurement errors when estimating the VJH with flight time using photocell devices in comparison with the gold standard jump height measured by a force plate (FP). The second purpose was to determine the intrinsic reliability of the Optojump photoelectric cells in estimating VJH. For this aim, 20 subjects (age: 22.50±1.24 years) performed maximal vertical jumps in three modalities in randomized order: the squat jump (SJ), counter-movement jump (CMJ), and CMJ with arm swing (CMJarm). Each trial was simultaneously recorded by the FP and Optojump devices. High intra-class correlation coefficients (ICCs) for validity (0.98-0.99) and low limits of agreement (less than 1.4 cm) were found; even a systematic difference in jump height was consistently observed between FT and double integration of force methods (-31% to -27%; p<0.001) and a large effect size (Cohen's d >1.2). Intra-session reliability of Optojump was excellent, with ICCs ranging from 0.98 to 0.99, low coefficients of variation (3.98%), and low standard errors of measurement (0.8 cm). It was concluded that there was a high correlation between the two methods to estimate the vertical jump height, but the FT method cannot replace the gold standard, due to the large systematic bias. According to our results, the equations of each of the three jump modalities were presented in order to obtain a better estimation of the jump height.

Measurement errors when estimating the vertical jump height with flight time using photocell devices: the example of Optojump

PubMed Central

Attia, A; Chaouachi, A; Padulo, J; Wong, DP; Chamari, K

2016-01-01

Common methods to estimate vertical jump height (VJH) are based on the measurements of flight time (FT) or vertical reaction force. This study aimed to assess the measurement errors when estimating the VJH with flight time using photocell devices in comparison with the gold standard jump height measured by a force plate (FP). The second purpose was to determine the intrinsic reliability of the Optojump photoelectric cells in estimating VJH. For this aim, 20 subjects (age: 22.50±1.24 years) performed maximal vertical jumps in three modalities in randomized order: the squat jump (SJ), counter-movement jump (CMJ), and CMJ with arm swing (CMJarm). Each trial was simultaneously recorded by the FP and Optojump devices. High intra-class correlation coefficients (ICCs) for validity (0.98-0.99) and low limits of agreement (less than 1.4 cm) were found; even a systematic difference in jump height was consistently observed between FT and double integration of force methods (-31% to -27%; p<0.001) and a large effect size (Cohen’s d>1.2). Intra-session reliability of Optojump was excellent, with ICCs ranging from 0.98 to 0.99, low coefficients of variation (3.98%), and low standard errors of measurement (0.8 cm). It was concluded that there was a high correlation between the two methods to estimate the vertical jump height, but the FT method cannot replace the gold standard, due to the large systematic bias. According to our results, the equations of each of the three jump modalities were presented in order to obtain a better estimation of the jump height. PMID:28416900

ERP Reliability Analysis (ERA) Toolbox: An open-source toolbox for analyzing the reliability of event-related brain potentials.

PubMed

Clayson, Peter E; Miller, Gregory A

2017-01-01

Generalizability theory (G theory) provides a flexible, multifaceted approach to estimating score reliability. G theory's approach to estimating score reliability has important advantages over classical test theory that are relevant for research using event-related brain potentials (ERPs). For example, G theory does not require parallel forms (i.e., equal means, variances, and covariances), can handle unbalanced designs, and provides a single reliability estimate for designs with multiple sources of error. This monograph provides a detailed description of the conceptual framework of G theory using examples relevant to ERP researchers, presents the algorithms needed to estimate ERP score reliability, and provides a detailed walkthrough of newly-developed software, the ERP Reliability Analysis (ERA) Toolbox, that calculates score reliability using G theory. The ERA Toolbox is open-source, Matlab software that uses G theory to estimate the contribution of the number of trials retained for averaging, group, and/or event types on ERP score reliability. The toolbox facilitates the rigorous evaluation of psychometric properties of ERP scores recommended elsewhere in this special issue. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Shift level analysis of cable yarder availability, utilization, and productive time

Treesearch

James R. Sherar; Chris B. LeDoux

1989-01-01

Decision makers, loggers, managers, and planners need to understand and have methods for estimating utilization and productive time of cable logging systems. In making an accurate prediction of how much area and volume a machine will log per unit time and the associated cable yarding costs, a reliable estimate of the availability, utilization, and productive time of...

Rasch Analysis of Word Identification and Magnitude Estimation Scaling Responses in Measuring Naive Listeners' Judgments of Speech Intelligibility of Children with Severe-to-Profound Hearing Impairments

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Beltyukova, Svetlana A.; Stone, Gregory M.; Ellis, Lee W.

2008-01-01

Purpose: Speech intelligibility research typically relies on traditional evidence of reliability and validity. This investigation used Rasch analysis to enhance understanding of the functioning and meaning of scores obtained with 2 commonly used procedures: word identification (WI) and magnitude estimation scaling (MES). Method: Narrative samples…

A method of determining surface runoff by

Treesearch

Donald E. Whelan; Lemuel E. Miller; John B. Cavallero

1952-01-01

To determine the effects of watershed management on flood runoff, one must make a reliable estimate of how much the surface runoff can be reduced by a land-use program. Since surface runoff is the difference between precipitation and the amount of water that soaks into the soil, such an estimate must be based on the infiltration capacity of the soil.

Population estimation with sparse data: The role of estimators versus indices revisited

Treesearch

Kevin S. McKelvey; Dean E. Pearson

2001-01-01

The use of indices to evaluate small-mammal populations has been heavily criticized, yet a review of small-mammal studies published from 1996 through 2000 indicated that indices are still the primary methods employed for measuring populations. The literature review also found that 98% of the samples collected in these studies were too small for reliable...

The Foraging Ecology of Royal and Sandwich Terns in North Carolina, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGinnis, T.W.; Emslie, S.D.

2001-01-01

Population sizes of territorial male red-winged blackbirds (Agelaius phoeniceus) were determined with counts of territorial males (area count) and a Petersen-Lincoln Index method for roadsides (roadside estimate). Weather conditions and time of day did not influence either method. Combined roadside estimates had smaller error bounds than the individual transect estimates and were not hindered by the problem of zero recaptures. Roadside estimates were usually one-half as large as the area counts, presumably due to an observer bias for marked birds. The roadside estimate provides only an index of major changes in populations of territorial male redwings. When the roadside estimate is employed, the area count should be used to determine the amount and nature of observer bias. For small population surveys, the area count is probably more reliable and accurate than the roadside estimate.

Determining population size of territorial red-winged blackbirds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Albers, P.H.

1976-01-01

Population sizes of territorial male red-winged blackbirds (Agelaius phoeniceus) were determined with counts of territorial males (area count) and a Petersen-Lincoln Index method for roadsides (roadside estimate). Weather conditions and time of day did not influence either method. Combined roadside estimates had smaller error bounds than the individual transect estimates and were not hindered by the problem of zero recaptures. Roadside estimates were usually one-half as large as the area counts, presumably due to an observer bias for marked birds. The roadside estimate provides only an index of major changes in populations of territorial male redwings. When the roadside estimate is employed, the area count should be used to determine the amount and nature of observer bias. For small population surveys, the area count is probably more reliable and accurate than the roadside estimate.

Real-Time GNSS-Based Attitude Determination in the Measurement Domain

PubMed Central

Zhao, Lin; Li, Na; Li, Liang; Zhang, Yi; Cheng, Chun

2017-01-01

A multi-antenna-based GNSS receiver is capable of providing high-precision and drift-free attitude solution. Carrier phase measurements need be utilized to achieve high-precision attitude. The traditional attitude determination methods in the measurement domain and the position domain resolve the attitude and the ambiguity sequentially. The redundant measurements from multiple baselines have not been fully utilized to enhance the reliability of attitude determination. A multi-baseline-based attitude determination method in the measurement domain is proposed to estimate the attitude parameters and the ambiguity simultaneously. Meanwhile, the redundancy of attitude resolution has also been increased so that the reliability of ambiguity resolution and attitude determination can be enhanced. Moreover, in order to further improve the reliability of attitude determination, we propose a partial ambiguity resolution method based on the proposed attitude determination model. The static and kinematic experiments were conducted to verify the performance of the proposed method. When compared with the traditional attitude determination methods, the static experimental results show that the proposed method can improve the accuracy by at least 0.03° and enhance the continuity by 18%, at most. The kinematic result has shown that the proposed method can obtain an optimal balance between accuracy and reliability performance. PMID:28165434

Reliability of infrared thermometric measurements of skin temperature in the hand.

PubMed

Packham, Tara L; Fok, Diana; Frederiksen, Karen; Thabane, Lehana; Buckley, Norman

2012-01-01

Clinical measurement study. Skin temperature asymmetries (STAs) are used in the diagnosis of complex regional pain syndrome (CRPS), but little evidence exists for reliability of the equipment and methods. This study examined the reliability of an inexpensive infrared (IR) thermometer and measurement points in the hand for the study of STA. ST was measured three times at five points on both hands with an IR thermometer by two raters in 20 volunteers (12 normals and 8 CRPS). ST measurement results using IR thermometers support inter-rater reliability: intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) estimate for single measures 0.80; all ST measurement points were also highly reliable (ICC single measures, 0.83-0.91). The equipment demonstrated excellent reliability, with little difference in the reliability of the five measurement sites. These preliminary findings support their use in future CRPS research. Not applicable. Copyright © 2012 Hanley & Belfus. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Why preferring parametric forecasting to nonparametric methods?

PubMed

Jabot, Franck

2015-05-07

A recent series of papers by Charles T. Perretti and collaborators have shown that nonparametric forecasting methods can outperform parametric methods in noisy nonlinear systems. Such a situation can arise because of two main reasons: the instability of parametric inference procedures in chaotic systems which can lead to biased parameter estimates, and the discrepancy between the real system dynamics and the modeled one, a problem that Perretti and collaborators call "the true model myth". Should ecologists go on using the demanding parametric machinery when trying to forecast the dynamics of complex ecosystems? Or should they rely on the elegant nonparametric approach that appears so promising? It will be here argued that ecological forecasting based on parametric models presents two key comparative advantages over nonparametric approaches. First, the likelihood of parametric forecasting failure can be diagnosed thanks to simple Bayesian model checking procedures. Second, when parametric forecasting is diagnosed to be reliable, forecasting uncertainty can be estimated on virtual data generated with the fitted to data parametric model. In contrast, nonparametric techniques provide forecasts with unknown reliability. This argumentation is illustrated with the simple theta-logistic model that was previously used by Perretti and collaborators to make their point. It should convince ecologists to stick to standard parametric approaches, until methods have been developed to assess the reliability of nonparametric forecasting. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Note on Structural Equation Modeling Estimates of Reliability

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yang, Yanyun; Green, Samuel B.

2010-01-01

Reliability can be estimated using structural equation modeling (SEM). Two potential problems with this approach are that estimates may be unstable with small sample sizes and biased with misspecified models. A Monte Carlo study was conducted to investigate the quality of SEM estimates of reliability by themselves and relative to coefficient…

Large Sample Confidence Intervals for Item Response Theory Reliability Coefficients

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Andersson, Björn; Xin, Tao

2018-01-01

In applications of item response theory (IRT), an estimate of the reliability of the ability estimates or sum scores is often reported. However, analytical expressions for the standard errors of the estimators of the reliability coefficients are not available in the literature and therefore the variability associated with the estimated reliability…

Detecting and quantifying stellar magnetic fields. Sparse Stokes profile approximation using orthogonal matching pursuit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carroll, T. A.; Strassmeier, K. G.

2014-03-01

Context. In recent years, we have seen a rapidly growing number of stellar magnetic field detections for various types of stars. Many of these magnetic fields are estimated from spectropolarimetric observations (Stokes V) by using the so-called center-of-gravity (COG) method. Unfortunately, the accuracy of this method rapidly deteriorates with increasing noise and thus calls for a more robust procedure that combines signal detection and field estimation. Aims: We introduce an estimation method that provides not only the effective or mean longitudinal magnetic field from an observed Stokes V profile but also uses the net absolute polarization of the profile to obtain an estimate of the apparent (i.e., velocity resolved) absolute longitudinal magnetic field. Methods: By combining the COG method with an orthogonal-matching-pursuit (OMP) approach, we were able to decompose observed Stokes profiles with an overcomplete dictionary of wavelet-basis functions to reliably reconstruct the observed Stokes profiles in the presence of noise. The elementary wave functions of the sparse reconstruction process were utilized to estimate the effective longitudinal magnetic field and the apparent absolute longitudinal magnetic field. A multiresolution analysis complements the OMP algorithm to provide a robust detection and estimation method. Results: An extensive Monte-Carlo simulation confirms the reliability and accuracy of the magnetic OMP approach where a mean error of under 2% is found. Its full potential is obtained for heavily noise-corrupted Stokes profiles with signal-to-noise variance ratios down to unity. In this case a conventional COG method yields a mean error for the effective longitudinal magnetic field of up to 50%, whereas the OMP method gives a maximum error of 18%. It is, moreover, shown that even in the case of very small residual noise on a level between 10-3 and 10-5, a regime reached by current multiline reconstruction techniques, the conventional COG method incorrectly interprets a large portion of the residual noise as a magnetic field, with values of up to 100 G. The magnetic OMP method, on the other hand, remains largely unaffected by the noise, regardless of the noise level the maximum error is no greater than 0.7 G.

Computing travel time when the exact address is unknown: a comparison of point and polygon ZIP code approximation methods.

PubMed

Berke, Ethan M; Shi, Xun

2009-04-29

Travel time is an important metric of geographic access to health care. We compared strategies of estimating travel times when only subject ZIP code data were available. Using simulated data from New Hampshire and Arizona, we estimated travel times to nearest cancer centers by using: 1) geometric centroid of ZIP code polygons as origins, 2) population centroids as origin, 3) service area rings around each cancer center, assigning subjects to rings by assuming they are evenly distributed within their ZIP code, 4) service area rings around each center, assuming the subjects follow the population distribution within the ZIP code. We used travel times based on street addresses as true values to validate estimates. Population-based methods have smaller errors than geometry-based methods. Within categories (geometry or population), centroid and service area methods have similar errors. Errors are smaller in urban areas than in rural areas. Population-based methods are superior to the geometry-based methods, with the population centroid method appearing to be the best choice for estimating travel time. Estimates in rural areas are less reliable.

Reliability Correction for Functional Connectivity: Theory and Implementation

PubMed Central

Mueller, Sophia; Wang, Danhong; Fox, Michael D.; Pan, Ruiqi; Lu, Jie; Li, Kuncheng; Sun, Wei; Buckner, Randy L.; Liu, Hesheng

2016-01-01

Network properties can be estimated using functional connectivity MRI (fcMRI). However, regional variation of the fMRI signal causes systematic biases in network estimates including correlation attenuation in regions of low measurement reliability. Here we computed the spatial distribution of fcMRI reliability using longitudinal fcMRI datasets and demonstrated how pre-estimated reliability maps can correct for correlation attenuation. As a test case of reliability-based attenuation correction we estimated properties of the default network, where reliability was significantly lower than average in the medial temporal lobe and higher in the posterior medial cortex, heterogeneity that impacts estimation of the network. Accounting for this bias using attenuation correction revealed that the medial temporal lobe’s contribution to the default network is typically underestimated. To render this approach useful to a greater number of datasets, we demonstrate that test-retest reliability maps derived from repeated runs within a single scanning session can be used as a surrogate for multi-session reliability mapping. Using data segments with different scan lengths between 1 and 30 min, we found that test-retest reliability of connectivity estimates increases with scan length while the spatial distribution of reliability is relatively stable even at short scan lengths. Finally, analyses of tertiary data revealed that reliability distribution is influenced by age, neuropsychiatric status and scanner type, suggesting that reliability correction may be especially important when studying between-group differences. Collectively, these results illustrate that reliability-based attenuation correction is an easily implemented strategy that mitigates certain features of fMRI signal nonuniformity. PMID:26493163

Assessment of the transportation route of oversize and excessive loads in relation to the load-bearing capacity of existing bridges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doležel, Jiří; Novák, Drahomír; Petrů, Jan

2017-09-01

Transportation routes of oversize and excessive loads are currently planned in relation to ensure the transit of a vehicle through critical points on the road. Critical points are level-intersection of roads, bridges etc. This article presents a comprehensive procedure to determine a reliability and a load-bearing capacity level of the existing bridges on highways and roads using the advanced methods of reliability analysis based on simulation techniques of Monte Carlo type in combination with nonlinear finite element method analysis. The safety index is considered as a main criterion of the reliability level of the existing construction structures and the index is described in current structural design standards, e.g. ISO and Eurocode. An example of a single-span slab bridge made of precast prestressed concrete girders of the 60 year current time and its load bearing capacity is set for the ultimate limit state and serviceability limit state. The structure’s design load capacity was estimated by the full probability nonlinear MKP analysis using a simulation technique Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS). Load-bearing capacity values based on a fully probabilistic analysis are compared with the load-bearing capacity levels which were estimated by deterministic methods of a critical section of the most loaded girders.

The reliability of multistory buildings with the effect of non-uniform settlements of foundation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Al'Malul, Rafik; Gadzhuntsev, Michail

2018-03-01

The issue is the evaluation of reliability of construction considering the influence of the variation of the support settlement, which is changing during the lifetime of constructions due to the consolidation process of the ground. Recently, the specialists give special emphasis to the necessity to develop the methods for the estimation of reliability and durability of structures. The problem, the article considers, is the determination of the reliability of multistory buildings with non-uniform changing-in-time sediments caused by the consolidation process in soils. Failure of structures may occur before the draft reaches it`s stabilizing value, because of the violations of the conditions of normal use.

Comprehensive tire-road friction coefficient estimation based on signal fusion method under complex maneuvering operations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, L.; Yang, K.; Jia, G.; Ran, X.; Song, J.; Han, Z.-Q.

2015-05-01

The accurate estimation of the tire-road friction coefficient plays a significant role in the vehicle dynamics control. The estimation method should be timely and reliable for the controlling requirements, which means the contact friction characteristics between the tire and the road should be recognized before the interference to ensure the safety of the driver and passengers from drifting and losing control. In addition, the estimation method should be stable and feasible for complex maneuvering operations to guarantee the control performance as well. A signal fusion method combining the available signals to estimate the road friction is suggested in this paper on the basis of the estimated ones of braking, driving and steering conditions individually. Through the input characteristics and the states of the vehicle and tires from sensors the maneuvering condition may be recognized, by which the certainty factors of the friction of the three conditions mentioned above may be obtained correspondingly, and then the comprehensive road friction may be calculated. Experimental vehicle tests validate the effectiveness of the proposed method through complex maneuvering operations; the estimated road friction coefficient based on the signal fusion method is relatively timely and accurate to satisfy the control demands.

Validity and reliability of dental age estimation of teeth root translucency based on digital luminance determination.

PubMed

Ramsthaler, Frank; Kettner, Mattias; Verhoff, Marcel A

2014-01-01

In forensic anthropological casework, estimating age-at-death is key to profiling unknown skeletal remains. The aim of this study was to examine the reliability of a new, simple, fast, and inexpensive digital odontological method for age-at-death estimation. The method is based on the original Lamendin method, which is a widely used technique in the repertoire of odontological aging methods in forensic anthropology. We examined 129 single root teeth employing a digital camera and imaging software for the measurement of the luminance of the teeth's translucent root zone. Variability in luminance detection was evaluated using statistical technical error of measurement analysis. The method revealed stable values largely unrelated to observer experience, whereas requisite formulas proved to be camera-specific and should therefore be generated for an individual recording setting based on samples of known chronological age. Multiple regression analysis showed a highly significant influence of the coefficients of the variables "arithmetic mean" and "standard deviation" of luminance for the regression formula. For the use of this primer multivariate equation for age-at-death estimation in casework, a standard error of the estimate of 6.51 years was calculated. Step-by-step reduction of the number of embedded variables to linear regression analysis employing the best contributor "arithmetic mean" of luminance yielded a regression equation with a standard error of 6.72 years (p < 0.001). The results of this study not only support the premise of root translucency as an age-related phenomenon, but also demonstrate that translucency reflects a number of other influencing factors in addition to age. This new digital measuring technique of the zone of dental root luminance can broaden the array of methods available for estimating chronological age, and furthermore facilitate measurement and age classification due to its low dependence on observer experience.

Levels and trends of child and adult mortality rates in the Islamic Republic of Iran, 1990-2013; protocol of the NASBOD study.

PubMed

Mohammadi, Younes; Parsaeian, Mahboubeh; Farzadfar, Farshad; Kasaeian, Amir; Mehdipour, Parinaz; Sheidaei, Ali; Mansouri, Anita; Saeedi Moghaddam, Sahar; Djalalinia, Shirin; Mahmoudi, Mahmood; Khosravi, Ardeshir; Yazdani, Kamran

2014-03-01

Calculation of burden of diseases and risk factors is crucial to set priorities in the health care systems. Nevertheless, the reliable measurement of mortality rates is the main barrier to reach this goal. Unfortunately, in many developing countries the vital registration system (VRS) is either defective or does not exist at all. Consequently, alternative methods have been developed to measure mortality. This study is a subcomponent of NASBOD project, which is currently conducting in Iran. In this study, we aim to calculate incompleteness of the Death Registration System (DRS) and then to estimate levels and trends of child and adult mortality using reliable methods. In order to estimate mortality rates, first, we identify all possible data sources. Then, we calculate incompleteness of child and adult morality separately. For incompleteness of child mortality, we analyze summary birth history data using maternal age cohort and maternal age period methods. Then, we combine these two methods using LOESS regression. However, these estimates are not plausible for some provinces. We use additional information of covariates such as wealth index and years of schooling to make predictions for these provinces using spatio-temporal model. We generate yearly estimates of mortality using Gaussian process regression that covers both sampling and non-sampling errors within uncertainty intervals. By comparing the resulted estimates with mortality rates from DRS, we calculate child mortality incompleteness. For incompleteness of adult mortality, Generalized Growth Balance, Synthetic Extinct Generation and a hybrid of two mentioned methods are used. Afterwards, we combine incompleteness of three methods using GPR, and apply it to correct and adjust the number of deaths. In this study, we develop a conceptual framework to overcome the existing challenges for accurate measuring of mortality rates. The resulting estimates can be used to inform policy-makers about past, current and future mortality rates as a major indicator of health status of a population.

NERF - A Computer Program for the Numerical Evaluation of Reliability Functions - Reliability Modelling, Numerical Methods and Program Documentation,

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-09-01

gives the adaptive procedure the desirabl, property of providLng a self indication of possible failure. Let In(ab) denote a numerical estimate of I(ab...opertor’s response to the prompt stored in A. This respose is checked and INTEST set true if ’YES’, ’Y’ or ’T’ has been entered. INTEST is set false

Interhemispheric Inhibition Measurement Reliability in Stroke: A Pilot Study

PubMed Central

Cassidy, Jessica M.; Chu, Haitao; Chen, Mo; Kimberley, Teresa J.; Carey, James R.

2016-01-01

Objective Reliable transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) measures for probing corticomotor excitability are important when assessing the physiological effects of non-invasive brain stimulation. The primary objective of this study was to examine test-retest reliability of an interhemispheric inhibition (IHI) index measurement in stroke. Materials and Methods Ten subjects with chronic stroke (≥ 6 months) completed two IHI testing sessions per week for three weeks (six testing sessions total). A single investigator measured IHI in the contra- to-ipsilesional primary motor cortex direction and in the opposite direction using bilateral paired-pulse TMS. Weekly sessions were separated by 24 hours with a 1-week washout period separating testing weeks. To determine if motor-evoked potential (MEP) quantification method affected measurement reliability, IHI indices computed from both MEP amplitude and area responses were found. Reliability was assessed with two-way, mixed intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC(3,k)). Standard error of measurement and minimal detectable difference statistics were also determined. Results With the exception of the initial testing week, IHI indices measured in the contra-to-ipsilesional hemisphere direction demonstrated moderate to excellent reliability (ICC = 0.725 – 0.913). Ipsi-to-contralesional IHI indices depicted poor or invalid reliability estimates throughout the three-week testing duration (ICC= −1.153 – 0.105). The overlap of ICC 95% confidence intervals suggested that IHI indices using MEP amplitude vs. area measures did not differ with respect to reliability. Conclusions IHI indices demonstrated varying magnitudes of reliability irrespective of MEP quantification method. Several strategies for improving IHI index measurement reliability are discussed. PMID:27333364

Adaptive estimation of state of charge and capacity with online identified battery model for vanadium redox flow battery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Zhongbao; Tseng, King Jet; Wai, Nyunt; Lim, Tuti Mariana; Skyllas-Kazacos, Maria

2016-11-01

Reliable state estimate depends largely on an accurate battery model. However, the parameters of battery model are time varying with operating condition variation and battery aging. The existing co-estimation methods address the model uncertainty by integrating the online model identification with state estimate and have shown improved accuracy. However, the cross interference may arise from the integrated framework to compromise numerical stability and accuracy. Thus this paper proposes the decoupling of model identification and state estimate to eliminate the possibility of cross interference. The model parameters are online adapted with the recursive least squares (RLS) method, based on which a novel joint estimator based on extended Kalman Filter (EKF) is formulated to estimate the state of charge (SOC) and capacity concurrently. The proposed joint estimator effectively compresses the filter order which leads to substantial improvement in the computational efficiency and numerical stability. Lab scale experiment on vanadium redox flow battery shows that the proposed method is highly authentic with good robustness to varying operating conditions and battery aging. The proposed method is further compared with some existing methods and shown to be superior in terms of accuracy, convergence speed, and computational cost.

An Improved Swarm Optimization for Parameter Estimation and Biological Model Selection

PubMed Central

Abdullah, Afnizanfaizal; Deris, Safaai; Mohamad, Mohd Saberi; Anwar, Sohail

2013-01-01

One of the key aspects of computational systems biology is the investigation on the dynamic biological processes within cells. Computational models are often required to elucidate the mechanisms and principles driving the processes because of the nonlinearity and complexity. The models usually incorporate a set of parameters that signify the physical properties of the actual biological systems. In most cases, these parameters are estimated by fitting the model outputs with the corresponding experimental data. However, this is a challenging task because the available experimental data are frequently noisy and incomplete. In this paper, a new hybrid optimization method is proposed to estimate these parameters from the noisy and incomplete experimental data. The proposed method, called Swarm-based Chemical Reaction Optimization, integrates the evolutionary searching strategy employed by the Chemical Reaction Optimization, into the neighbouring searching strategy of the Firefly Algorithm method. The effectiveness of the method was evaluated using a simulated nonlinear model and two biological models: synthetic transcriptional oscillators, and extracellular protease production models. The results showed that the accuracy and computational speed of the proposed method were better than the existing Differential Evolution, Firefly Algorithm and Chemical Reaction Optimization methods. The reliability of the estimated parameters was statistically validated, which suggests that the model outputs produced by these parameters were valid even when noisy and incomplete experimental data were used. Additionally, Akaike Information Criterion was employed to evaluate the model selection, which highlighted the capability of the proposed method in choosing a plausible model based on the experimental data. In conclusion, this paper presents the effectiveness of the proposed method for parameter estimation and model selection problems using noisy and incomplete experimental data. This study is hoped to provide a new insight in developing more accurate and reliable biological models based on limited and low quality experimental data. PMID:23593445

Estimation of river pollution index in a tidal stream using kriging analysis.

PubMed

Chen, Yen-Chang; Yeh, Hui-Chung; Wei, Chiang

2012-08-29

Tidal streams are complex watercourses that represent a transitional zone between riverine and marine systems; they occur where fresh and marine waters converge. Because tidal circulation processes cause substantial turbulence in these highly dynamic zones, tidal streams are the most productive of water bodies. Their rich biological diversity, combined with the convenience of land and water transports, provide sites for concentrated populations that evolve into large cities. Domestic wastewater is generally discharged directly into tidal streams in Taiwan, necessitating regular evaluation of the water quality of these streams. Given the complex flow dynamics of tidal streams, only a few models can effectively evaluate and identify pollution levels. This study evaluates the river pollution index (RPI) in tidal streams by using kriging analysis. This is a geostatistical method for interpolating random spatial variation to estimate linear grid points in two or three dimensions. A kriging-based method is developed to evaluate RPI in tidal streams, which is typically considered as 1D in hydraulic engineering. The proposed method efficiently evaluates RPI in tidal streams with the minimum amount of water quality data. Data of the Tanshui River downstream reach available from an estuarine area validate the accuracy and reliability of the proposed method. Results of this study demonstrate that this simple yet reliable method can effectively estimate RPI in tidal streams.

Practical no-gold-standard evaluation framework for quantitative imaging methods: application to lesion segmentation in positron emission tomography

PubMed Central

Jha, Abhinav K.; Mena, Esther; Caffo, Brian; Ashrafinia, Saeed; Rahmim, Arman; Frey, Eric; Subramaniam, Rathan M.

2017-01-01

Abstract. Recently, a class of no-gold-standard (NGS) techniques have been proposed to evaluate quantitative imaging methods using patient data. These techniques provide figures of merit (FoMs) quantifying the precision of the estimated quantitative value without requiring repeated measurements and without requiring a gold standard. However, applying these techniques to patient data presents several practical difficulties including assessing the underlying assumptions, accounting for patient-sampling-related uncertainty, and assessing the reliability of the estimated FoMs. To address these issues, we propose statistical tests that provide confidence in the underlying assumptions and in the reliability of the estimated FoMs. Furthermore, the NGS technique is integrated within a bootstrap-based methodology to account for patient-sampling-related uncertainty. The developed NGS framework was applied to evaluate four methods for segmenting lesions from F-Fluoro-2-deoxyglucose positron emission tomography images of patients with head-and-neck cancer on the task of precisely measuring the metabolic tumor volume. The NGS technique consistently predicted the same segmentation method as the most precise method. The proposed framework provided confidence in these results, even when gold-standard data were not available. The bootstrap-based methodology indicated improved performance of the NGS technique with larger numbers of patient studies, as was expected, and yielded consistent results as long as data from more than 80 lesions were available for the analysis. PMID:28331883

A comparison of imputation techniques for handling missing predictor values in a risk model with a binary outcome.

PubMed

Ambler, Gareth; Omar, Rumana Z; Royston, Patrick

2007-06-01

Risk models that aim to predict the future course and outcome of disease processes are increasingly used in health research, and it is important that they are accurate and reliable. Most of these risk models are fitted using routinely collected data in hospitals or general practices. Clinical outcomes such as short-term mortality will be near-complete, but many of the predictors may have missing values. A common approach to dealing with this is to perform a complete-case analysis. However, this may lead to overfitted models and biased estimates if entire patient subgroups are excluded. The aim of this paper is to investigate a number of methods for imputing missing data to evaluate their effect on risk model estimation and the reliability of the predictions. Multiple imputation methods, including hotdecking and multiple imputation by chained equations (MICE), were investigated along with several single imputation methods. A large national cardiac surgery database was used to create simulated yet realistic datasets. The results suggest that complete case analysis may produce unreliable risk predictions and should be avoided. Conditional mean imputation performed well in our scenario, but may not be appropriate if using variable selection methods. MICE was amongst the best performing multiple imputation methods with regards to the quality of the predictions. Additionally, it produced the least biased estimates, with good coverage, and hence is recommended for use in practice.

Reliability based fatigue design and maintenance procedures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hanagud, S.

1977-01-01

A stochastic model has been developed to describe a probability for fatigue process by assuming a varying hazard rate. This stochastic model can be used to obtain the desired probability of a crack of certain length at a given location after a certain number of cycles or time. Quantitative estimation of the developed model was also discussed. Application of the model to develop a procedure for reliability-based cost-effective fail-safe structural design is presented. This design procedure includes the reliability improvement due to inspection and repair. Methods of obtaining optimum inspection and maintenance schemes are treated.

Remotely piloted vehicle: Application of the GRASP analysis method

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Andre, W. L.; Morris, J. B.

1981-01-01

The application of General Reliability Analysis Simulation Program (GRASP) to the remotely piloted vehicle (RPV) system is discussed. The model simulates the field operation of the RPV system. By using individual component reliabilities, the overall reliability of the RPV system is determined. The results of the simulations are given in operational days. The model represented is only a basis from which more detailed work could progress. The RPV system in this model is based on preliminary specifications and estimated values. The use of GRASP from basic system definition, to model input, and to model verification is demonstrated.

Methods for estimating flood frequency in Montana based on data through water year 1998

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parrett, Charles; Johnson, Dave R.

2004-01-01

Annual peak discharges having recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 200, and 500 years (T-year floods) were determined for 660 gaged sites in Montana and in adjacent areas of Idaho, Wyoming, and Canada, based on data through water year 1998. The updated flood-frequency information was subsequently used in regression analyses, either ordinary or generalized least squares, to develop equations relating T-year floods to various basin and climatic characteristics, equations relating T-year floods to active-channel width, and equations relating T-year floods to bankfull width. The equations can be used to estimate flood frequency at ungaged sites. Montana was divided into eight regions, within which flood characteristics were considered to be reasonably homogeneous, and the three sets of regression equations were developed for each region. A measure of the overall reliability of the regression equations is the average standard error of prediction. The average standard errors of prediction for the equations based on basin and climatic characteristics ranged from 37.4 percent to 134.1 percent. Average standard errors of prediction for the equations based on active-channel width ranged from 57.2 percent to 141.3 percent. Average standard errors of prediction for the equations based on bankfull width ranged from 63.1 percent to 155.5 percent. In most regions, the equations based on basin and climatic characteristics generally had smaller average standard errors of prediction than equations based on active-channel or bankfull width. An exception was the Southeast Plains Region, where all equations based on active-channel width had smaller average standard errors of prediction than equations based on basin and climatic characteristics or bankfull width. Methods for weighting estimates derived from the basin- and climatic-characteristic equations and the channel-width equations also were developed. The weights were based on the cross correlation of residuals from the different methods and the average standard errors of prediction. When all three methods were combined, the average standard errors of prediction ranged from 37.4 percent to 120.2 percent. Weighting of estimates reduced the standard errors of prediction for all T-year flood estimates in four regions, reduced the standard errors of prediction for some T-year flood estimates in two regions, and provided no reduction in average standard error of prediction in two regions. A computer program for solving the regression equations, weighting estimates, and determining reliability of individual estimates was developed and placed on the USGS Montana District World Wide Web page. A new regression method, termed Region of Influence regression, also was tested. Test results indicated that the Region of Influence method was not as reliable as the regional equations based on generalized least squares regression. Two additional methods for estimating flood frequency at ungaged sites located on the same streams as gaged sites also are described. The first method, based on a drainage-area-ratio adjustment, is intended for use on streams where the ungaged site of interest is located near a gaged site. The second method, based on interpolation between gaged sites, is intended for use on streams that have two or more streamflow-gaging stations.

Correction of stream quality trends for the effects of laboratory measurement bias

USGS Publications Warehouse

Alexander, Richard B.; Smith, Richard A.; Schwarz, Gregory E.

1993-01-01

We present a statistical model relating measurements of water quality to associated errors in laboratory methods. Estimation of the model allows us to correct trends in water quality for long-term and short-term variations in laboratory measurement errors. An illustration of the bias correction method for a large national set of stream water quality and quality assurance data shows that reductions in the bias of estimates of water quality trend slopes are achieved at the expense of increases in the variance of these estimates. Slight improvements occur in the precision of estimates of trend in bias by using correlative information on bias and water quality to estimate random variations in measurement bias. The results of this investigation stress the need for reliable, long-term quality assurance data and efficient statistical methods to assess the effects of measurement errors on the detection of water quality trends.

Error Estimation for the Linearized Auto-Localization Algorithm

PubMed Central

Guevara, Jorge; Jiménez, Antonio R.; Prieto, Jose Carlos; Seco, Fernando

2012-01-01

The Linearized Auto-Localization (LAL) algorithm estimates the position of beacon nodes in Local Positioning Systems (LPSs), using only the distance measurements to a mobile node whose position is also unknown. The LAL algorithm calculates the inter-beacon distances, used for the estimation of the beacons’ positions, from the linearized trilateration equations. In this paper we propose a method to estimate the propagation of the errors of the inter-beacon distances obtained with the LAL algorithm, based on a first order Taylor approximation of the equations. Since the method depends on such approximation, a confidence parameter τ is defined to measure the reliability of the estimated error. Field evaluations showed that by applying this information to an improved weighted-based auto-localization algorithm (WLAL), the standard deviation of the inter-beacon distances can be improved by more than 30% on average with respect to the original LAL method. PMID:22736965

Incorporation of prior information on parameters into nonlinear regression groundwater flow models: 1. Theory

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cooley, Richard L.

1982-01-01

Prior information on the parameters of a groundwater flow model can be used to improve parameter estimates obtained from nonlinear regression solution of a modeling problem. Two scales of prior information can be available: (1) prior information having known reliability (that is, bias and random error structure) and (2) prior information consisting of best available estimates of unknown reliability. A regression method that incorporates the second scale of prior information assumes the prior information to be fixed for any particular analysis to produce improved, although biased, parameter estimates. Approximate optimization of two auxiliary parameters of the formulation is used to help minimize the bias, which is almost always much smaller than that resulting from standard ridge regression. It is shown that if both scales of prior information are available, then a combined regression analysis may be made.

An analysis of estimation of pulmonary blood flow by the single-breath method

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Srinivasan, R.

1986-01-01

The single-breath method represents a simple noninvasive technique for the assessment of capillary blood flow across the lung. However, this method has not gained widespread acceptance, because its accuracy is still being questioned. A rigorous procedure is described for estimating pulmonary blood flow (PBF) using data obtained with the aid of the single-breath method. Attention is given to the minimization of data-processing errors in the presence of measurement errors and to questions regarding a correction for possible loss of CO2 in the lung tissue. It is pointed out that the estimations are based on the exact solution of the underlying differential equations which describe the dynamics of gas exchange in the lung. The reported study demonstrates the feasibility of obtaining highly reliable estimates of PBF from expiratory data in the presence of random measurement errors.

Source Data Impacts on Epistemic Uncertainty for Launch Vehicle Fault Tree Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Al Hassan, Mohammad; Novack, Steven; Ring, Robert

2016-01-01

Launch vehicle systems are designed and developed using both heritage and new hardware. Design modifications to the heritage hardware to fit new functional system requirements can impact the applicability of heritage reliability data. Risk estimates for newly designed systems must be developed from generic data sources such as commercially available reliability databases using reliability prediction methodologies, such as those addressed in MIL-HDBK-217F. Failure estimates must be converted from the generic environment to the specific operating environment of the system in which it is used. In addition, some qualification of applicability for the data source to the current system should be made. Characterizing data applicability under these circumstances is crucial to developing model estimations that support confident decisions on design changes and trade studies. This paper will demonstrate a data-source applicability classification method for suggesting epistemic component uncertainty to a target vehicle based on the source and operating environment of the originating data. The source applicability is determined using heuristic guidelines while translation of operating environments is accomplished by applying statistical methods to MIL-HDK-217F tables. The paper will provide one example for assigning environmental factors uncertainty when translating between operating environments for the microelectronic part-type components. The heuristic guidelines will be followed by uncertainty-importance routines to assess the need for more applicable data to reduce model uncertainty.

Age diagnosis based on incremental lines in dental cementum: a critical reflection.

PubMed

Grosskopf, Birgit; McGlynn, George

2011-01-01

Age estimation based on the counting of incremental lines in dental cementum is a method frequently used for the estimation of the age at death for humans in bioarchaeology, and increasingly, forensic anthropology. Assessment of applicability, precision, and method reproducibility continue to be the focus of research in this area, and are occasionally accompanied by significant controversy. Differences in methodological techniques for data collection (e.g. number of sections, factor of magnification for counting or interpreting "outliers") are presented. Potential influences on method reliability are discussed, especially for their applicability in forensic contexts.

Structural reliability analysis of laminated CMC components

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Duffy, Stephen F.; Palko, Joseph L.; Gyekenyesi, John P.

1991-01-01

For laminated ceramic matrix composite (CMC) materials to realize their full potential in aerospace applications, design methods and protocols are a necessity. The time independent failure response of these materials is focussed on and a reliability analysis is presented associated with the initiation of matrix cracking. A public domain computer algorithm is highlighted that was coupled with the laminate analysis of a finite element code and which serves as a design aid to analyze structural components made from laminated CMC materials. Issues relevant to the effect of the size of the component are discussed, and a parameter estimation procedure is presented. The estimation procedure allows three parameters to be calculated from a failure population that has an underlying Weibull distribution.

Simple method for quick estimation of aquifer hydrogeological parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, C.; Li, Y. Y.

2017-08-01

Development of simple and accurate methods to determine the aquifer hydrogeological parameters was of importance for groundwater resources assessment and management. Aiming at the present issue of estimating aquifer parameters based on some data of the unsteady pumping test, a fitting function of Theis well function was proposed using fitting optimization method and then a unitary linear regression equation was established. The aquifer parameters could be obtained by solving coefficients of the regression equation. The application of the proposed method was illustrated, using two published data sets. By the error statistics and analysis on the pumping drawdown, it showed that the method proposed in this paper yielded quick and accurate estimates of the aquifer parameters. The proposed method could reliably identify the aquifer parameters from long distance observed drawdowns and early drawdowns. It was hoped that the proposed method in this paper would be helpful for practicing hydrogeologists and hydrologists.

Inferring invasive species abundance using removal data from management actions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Davis, Amy J.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Miller, Ryan S.; Farnsworth, Matthew L.; Lewis, Jesse S.; Moxcey, Michael; Pepin, Kim M.

2016-01-01

Evaluation of the progress of management programs for invasive species is crucial for demonstrating impacts to stakeholders and strategic planning of resource allocation. Estimates of abundance before and after management activities can serve as a useful metric of population management programs. However, many methods of estimating population size are too labor intensive and costly to implement, posing restrictive levels of burden on operational programs. Removal models are a reliable method for estimating abundance before and after management using data from the removal activities exclusively, thus requiring no work in addition to management. We developed a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate abundance from removal data accounting for varying levels of effort, and used simulations to assess the conditions under which reliable population estimates are obtained. We applied this model to estimate site-specific abundance of an invasive species, feral swine (Sus scrofa), using removal data from aerial gunning in 59 site/time-frame combinations (480–19,600 acres) throughout Oklahoma and Texas, USA. Simulations showed that abundance estimates were generally accurate when effective removal rates (removal rate accounting for total effort) were above 0.40. However, when abundances were small (<50) the effective removal rate needed to accurately estimates abundances was considerably higher (0.70). Based on our post-validation method, 78% of our site/time frame estimates were accurate. To use this modeling framework it is important to have multiple removals (more than three) within a time frame during which demographic changes are minimized (i.e., a closed population; ≤3 months for feral swine). Our results show that the probability of accurately estimating abundance from this model improves with increased sampling effort (8+ flight hours across the 3-month window is best) and increased removal rate. Based on the inverse relationship between inaccurate abundances and inaccurate removal rates, we suggest auxiliary information that could be collected and included in the model as covariates (e.g., habitat effects, differences between pilots) to improve accuracy of removal rates and hence abundance estimates.

Instrumental variables vs. grouping approach for reducing bias due to measurement error.

PubMed

Batistatou, Evridiki; McNamee, Roseanne

2008-01-01

Attenuation of the exposure-response relationship due to exposure measurement error is often encountered in epidemiology. Given that error cannot be totally eliminated, bias correction methods of analysis are needed. Many methods require more than one exposure measurement per person to be made, but the `group mean OLS method,' in which subjects are grouped into several a priori defined groups followed by ordinary least squares (OLS) regression on the group means, can be applied with one measurement. An alternative approach is to use an instrumental variable (IV) method in which both the single error-prone measure and an IV are used in IV analysis. In this paper we show that the `group mean OLS' estimator is equal to an IV estimator with the group mean used as IV, but that the variance estimators for the two methods are different. We derive a simple expression for the bias in the common estimator which is a simple function of group size, reliability and contrast of exposure between groups, and show that the bias can be very small when group size is large. We compare this method with a new proposal (group mean ranking method), also applicable with a single exposure measurement, in which the IV is the rank of the group means. When there are two independent exposure measurements per subject, we propose a new IV method (EVROS IV) and compare it with Carroll and Stefanski's (CS IV) proposal in which the second measure is used as an IV; the new IV estimator combines aspects of the `group mean' and `CS' strategies. All methods are evaluated in terms of bias, precision and root mean square error via simulations and a dataset from occupational epidemiology. The `group mean ranking method' does not offer much improvement over the `group mean method.' Compared with the `CS' method, the `EVROS' method is less affected by low reliability of exposure. We conclude that the group IV methods we propose may provide a useful way to handle mismeasured exposures in epidemiology with or without replicate measurements. Our finding may also have implications for the use of aggregate variables in epidemiology to control for unmeasured confounding.

Comparison of percent body fat estimates using air displacement plethysmography and hydrodensitometry in adults and children.

PubMed

Demerath, E W; Guo, S S; Chumlea, W C; Towne, B; Roche, A F; Siervogel, R M

2002-03-01

The purpose of the study was to compare estimates of body density and percentage body fat from air displacement plethysmography (ADP) to those from hydrodensitometry (HD) in adults and children and to provide a review of similar recent studies. Body density and percentage body fat (% BF) were assessed by ADP and HD on the same day in 87 adults aged 18-69 y (41 males and 46 females) and 39 children aged 8-17 y (19 males and 20 females). Differences between measured and predicted thoracic gas volumes determined during the ADP procedure and the resultant effects of those differences on body composition estimates were also compared. In a subset of 50 individuals (31 adults and 19 children), reliability of ADP was measured and the relative ease or difficulty of ADP and HD were probed with a questionnaire. The coefficient of reliability between %BF on day 1 and day 2 was 96.4 in adults and 90.1 in children, and the technical error of measurement of 1.6% in adults and 1.8% in children. Using a predicted rather than a measured thoracic gas volume did not significantly affect percentage body fat estimates in adults, but resulted in overestimates of percentage body fat in children. Mean percentage body fat from ADP was higher than percentage body fat from HD, although this was statistically significant only in adults (29.3 vs 27.7%, P<0.05). The 95% confidence interval of the between-method differences for all subjects was -7 to +9% body fat, and the root mean square error (r.m.s.e.) was approximately 4% body fat. In the subset of individuals who were asked to compare the two methods, 46 out of 50 (92%) indicated that they preferred the ADP to HD. ADP is a reliable method of measuring body composition that subjects found preferable to underwater weighing. However, as shown here and in most other studies, there are differences in percentage body fat estimates assessed by the two methods, perhaps related to body size, age or other factors, that are sufficient to preclude ADP from being used interchangeably with underwater weighing on an individual basis.

A Group Contribution Method for Estimating Cetane and Octane Numbers

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kubic, William Louis

Much of the research on advanced biofuels is devoted to the study of novel chemical pathways for converting nonfood biomass into liquid fuels that can be blended with existing transportation fuels. Many compounds under consideration are not found in the existing fuel supplies. Often, the physical properties needed to assess the viability of a potential biofuel are not available. The only reliable information available may be the molecular structure. Group contribution methods for estimating physical properties from molecular structure have been used for more than 60 years. The most common application is estimation of thermodynamic properties. More recently, group contributionmore » methods have been developed for estimating rate dependent properties including cetane and octane numbers. Often, published group contribution methods are limited in terms of types of function groups and range of applicability. In this study, a new, broadly-applicable group contribution method based on an artificial neural network was developed to estimate cetane number research octane number, and motor octane numbers of hydrocarbons and oxygenated hydrocarbons. The new method is more accurate over a greater range molecular weights and structural complexity than existing group contribution methods for estimating cetane and octane numbers.« less

Finding and estimating chemical property data for environmental assessment.

PubMed

Boethling, Robert S; Howard, Philip H; Meylan, William M

2004-10-01

The ability to predict the behavior of a chemical substance in a biological or environmental system largely depends on knowledge of the physicochemical properties and reactivity of that substance. We focus here on properties, with the objective of providing practical guidance for finding measured values and using estimation methods when necessary. Because currently available computer software often makes it more convenient to estimate than to retrieve measured values, we try to discourage irrational exuberance for these tools by including comprehensive lists of Internet and hard-copy data resources. Guidance for assessors is presented in the form of a process to obtain data that includes establishment of chemical identity, identification of data sources, assessment of accuracy and reliability, substructure searching for analogs when experimental data are unavailable, and estimation from chemical structure. Regarding property estimation, we cover estimation from close structural analogs in addition to broadly applicable methods requiring only the chemical structure. For the latter, we list and briefly discuss the most widely used methods. Concluding thoughts are offered concerning appropriate directions for future work on estimation methods, again with an emphasis on practical applications.

Methods for assessing reliability and validity for a measurement tool: a case study and critique using the WHO haemoglobin colour scale.

PubMed

White, Sarah A; van den Broek, Nynke R

2004-05-30

Before introducing a new measurement tool it is necessary to evaluate its performance. Several statistical methods have been developed, or used, to evaluate the reliability and validity of a new assessment method in such circumstances. In this paper we review some commonly used methods. Data from a study that was conducted to evaluate the usefulness of a specific measurement tool (the WHO Colour Scale) is then used to illustrate the application of these methods. The WHO Colour Scale was developed under the auspices of the WHO to provide a simple portable and reliable method of detecting anaemia. This Colour Scale is a discrete interval scale, whereas the actual haemoglobin values it is used to estimate are on a continuous interval scale and can be measured accurately using electrical laboratory equipment. The methods we consider are: linear regression, correlation coefficients, paired t-tests plotting differences against mean values and deriving limits of agreement; kappa and weighted kappa statistics, sensitivity and specificity, an intraclass correlation coefficient and the repeatability coefficient. We note that although the definition and properties of each of these methods is well established inappropriate methods continue to be used in medical literature for assessing reliability and validity, as evidenced in the context of the evaluation of the WHO Colour Scale. Copyright 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Psychometric considerations in the measurement of event-related brain potentials: Guidelines for measurement and reporting.

PubMed

Clayson, Peter E; Miller, Gregory A

2017-01-01

Failing to consider psychometric issues related to reliability and validity, differential deficits, and statistical power potentially undermines the conclusions of a study. In research using event-related brain potentials (ERPs), numerous contextual factors (population sampled, task, data recording, analysis pipeline, etc.) can impact the reliability of ERP scores. The present review considers the contextual factors that influence ERP score reliability and the downstream effects that reliability has on statistical analyses. Given the context-dependent nature of ERPs, it is recommended that ERP score reliability be formally assessed on a study-by-study basis. Recommended guidelines for ERP studies include 1) reporting the threshold of acceptable reliability and reliability estimates for observed scores, 2) specifying the approach used to estimate reliability, and 3) justifying how trial-count minima were chosen. A reliability threshold for internal consistency of at least 0.70 is recommended, and a threshold of 0.80 is preferred. The review also advocates the use of generalizability theory for estimating score dependability (the generalizability theory analog to reliability) as an improvement on classical test theory reliability estimates, suggesting that the latter is less well suited to ERP research. To facilitate the calculation and reporting of dependability estimates, an open-source Matlab program, the ERP Reliability Analysis Toolbox, is presented. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Relationship between body mass, lean mass, fat mass, and limb bone cross-sectional geometry: Implications for estimating body mass and physique from the skeleton.

PubMed

Pomeroy, Emma; Macintosh, Alison; Wells, Jonathan C K; Cole, Tim J; Stock, Jay T

2018-05-01

Estimating body mass from skeletal dimensions is widely practiced, but methods for estimating its components (lean and fat mass) are poorly developed. The ability to estimate these characteristics would offer new insights into the evolution of body composition and its variation relative to past and present health. This study investigates the potential of long bone cross-sectional properties as predictors of body, lean, and fat mass. Humerus, femur and tibia midshaft cross-sectional properties were measured by peripheral quantitative computed tomography in sample of young adult women (n = 105) characterized by a range of activity levels. Body composition was estimated from bioimpedance analysis. Lean mass correlated most strongly with both upper and lower limb bone properties (r values up to 0.74), while fat mass showed weak correlations (r ≤ 0.29). Estimation equations generated from tibial midshaft properties indicated that lean mass could be estimated relatively reliably, with some improvement using logged data and including bone length in the models (minimum standard error of estimate = 8.9%). Body mass prediction was less reliable and fat mass only poorly predicted (standard errors of estimate ≥11.9% and >33%, respectively). Lean mass can be predicted more reliably than body mass from limb bone cross-sectional properties. The results highlight the potential for studying evolutionary trends in lean mass from skeletal remains, and have implications for understanding the relationship between bone morphology and body mass or composition. © 2018 The Authors. American Journal of Physical Anthropology Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A particle swarm model for estimating reliability and scheduling system maintenance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Puzis, Rami; Shirtz, Dov; Elovici, Yuval

2016-05-01

Modifying data and information system components may introduce new errors and deteriorate the reliability of the system. Reliability can be efficiently regained with reliability centred maintenance, which requires reliability estimation for maintenance scheduling. A variant of the particle swarm model is used to estimate reliability of systems implemented according to the model view controller paradigm. Simulations based on data collected from an online system of a large financial institute are used to compare three component-level maintenance policies. Results show that appropriately scheduled component-level maintenance greatly reduces the cost of upholding an acceptable level of reliability by reducing the need in system-wide maintenance.

Identifying reliable independent components via split-half comparisons

PubMed Central

Groppe, David M.; Makeig, Scott; Kutas, Marta

2011-01-01

Independent component analysis (ICA) is a family of unsupervised learning algorithms that have proven useful for the analysis of the electroencephalogram (EEG) and magnetoencephalogram (MEG). ICA decomposes an EEG/MEG data set into a basis of maximally temporally independent components (ICs) that are learned from the data. As with any statistic, a concern with using ICA is the degree to which the estimated ICs are reliable. An IC may not be reliable if ICA was trained on insufficient data, if ICA training was stopped prematurely or at a local minimum (for some algorithms), or if multiple global minima were present. Consequently, evidence of ICA reliability is critical for the credibility of ICA results. In this paper, we present a new algorithm for assessing the reliability of ICs based on applying ICA separately to split-halves of a data set. This algorithm improves upon existing methods in that it considers both IC scalp topographies and activations, uses a probabilistically interpretable threshold for accepting ICs as reliable, and requires applying ICA only three times per data set. As evidence of the method’s validity, we show that the method can perform comparably to more time intensive bootstrap resampling and depends in a reasonable manner on the amount of training data. Finally, using the method we illustrate the importance of checking the reliability of ICs by demonstrating that IC reliability is dramatically increased by removing the mean EEG at each channel for each epoch of data rather than the mean EEG in a prestimulus baseline. PMID:19162199

The juvenile face as a suitable age indicator in child pornography cases: a pilot study on the reliability of automated and visual estimation approaches.

PubMed

Ratnayake, M; Obertová, Z; Dose, M; Gabriel, P; Bröker, H M; Brauckmann, M; Barkus, A; Rizgeliene, R; Tutkuviene, J; Ritz-Timme, S; Marasciuolo, L; Gibelli, D; Cattaneo, C

2014-09-01

In cases of suspected child pornography, the age of the victim represents a crucial factor for legal prosecution. The conventional methods for age estimation provide unreliable age estimates, particularly if teenage victims are concerned. In this pilot study, the potential of age estimation for screening purposes is explored for juvenile faces. In addition to a visual approach, an automated procedure is introduced, which has the ability to rapidly scan through large numbers of suspicious image data in order to trace juvenile faces. Age estimations were performed by experts, non-experts and the Demonstrator of a developed software on frontal facial images of 50 females aged 10-19 years from Germany, Italy, and Lithuania. To test the accuracy, the mean absolute error (MAE) between the estimates and the real ages was calculated for each examiner and the Demonstrator. The Demonstrator achieved the lowest MAE (1.47 years) for the 50 test images. Decreased image quality had no significant impact on the performance and classification results. The experts delivered slightly less accurate MAE (1.63 years). Throughout the tested age range, both the manual and the automated approach led to reliable age estimates within the limits of natural biological variability. The visual analysis of the face produces reasonably accurate age estimates up to the age of 18 years, which is the legally relevant age threshold for victims in cases of pedo-pornography. This approach can be applied in conjunction with the conventional methods for a preliminary age estimation of juveniles depicted on images.

A simulation test of the effectiveness of several methods for error-checking non-invasive genetic data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Roon, David A.; Waits, L.P.; Kendall, K.C.

2005-01-01

Non-invasive genetic sampling (NGS) is becoming a popular tool for population estimation. However, multiple NGS studies have demonstrated that polymerase chain reaction (PCR) genotyping errors can bias demographic estimates. These errors can be detected by comprehensive data filters such as the multiple-tubes approach, but this approach is expensive and time consuming as it requires three to eight PCR replicates per locus. Thus, researchers have attempted to correct PCR errors in NGS datasets using non-comprehensive error checking methods, but these approaches have not been evaluated for reliability. We simulated NGS studies with and without PCR error and 'filtered' datasets using non-comprehensive approaches derived from published studies and calculated mark-recapture estimates using CAPTURE. In the absence of data-filtering, simulated error resulted in serious inflations in CAPTURE estimates; some estimates exceeded N by ??? 200%. When data filters were used, CAPTURE estimate reliability varied with per-locus error (E??). At E?? = 0.01, CAPTURE estimates from filtered data displayed < 5% deviance from error-free estimates. When E?? was 0.05 or 0.09, some CAPTURE estimates from filtered data displayed biases in excess of 10%. Biases were positive at high sampling intensities; negative biases were observed at low sampling intensities. We caution researchers against using non-comprehensive data filters in NGS studies, unless they can achieve baseline per-locus error rates below 0.05 and, ideally, near 0.01. However, we suggest that data filters can be combined with careful technique and thoughtful NGS study design to yield accurate demographic information. ?? 2005 The Zoological Society of London.

Automated reliability assessment for spectroscopic redshift measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jamal, S.; Le Brun, V.; Le Fèvre, O.; Vibert, D.; Schmitt, A.; Surace, C.; Copin, Y.; Garilli, B.; Moresco, M.; Pozzetti, L.

2018-03-01

Context. Future large-scale surveys, such as the ESA Euclid mission, will produce a large set of galaxy redshifts (≥106) that will require fully automated data-processing pipelines to analyze the data, extract crucial information and ensure that all requirements are met. A fundamental element in these pipelines is to associate to each galaxy redshift measurement a quality, or reliability, estimate. Aim. In this work, we introduce a new approach to automate the spectroscopic redshift reliability assessment based on machine learning (ML) and characteristics of the redshift probability density function. Methods: We propose to rephrase the spectroscopic redshift estimation into a Bayesian framework, in order to incorporate all sources of information and uncertainties related to the redshift estimation process and produce a redshift posterior probability density function (PDF). To automate the assessment of a reliability flag, we exploit key features in the redshift posterior PDF and machine learning algorithms. Results: As a working example, public data from the VIMOS VLT Deep Survey is exploited to present and test this new methodology. We first tried to reproduce the existing reliability flags using supervised classification in order to describe different types of redshift PDFs, but due to the subjective definition of these flags (classification accuracy 58%), we soon opted for a new homogeneous partitioning of the data into distinct clusters via unsupervised classification. After assessing the accuracy of the new clusters via resubstitution and test predictions (classification accuracy 98%), we projected unlabeled data from preliminary mock simulations for the Euclid space mission into this mapping to predict their redshift reliability labels. Conclusions: Through the development of a methodology in which a system can build its own experience to assess the quality of a parameter, we are able to set a preliminary basis of an automated reliability assessment for spectroscopic redshift measurements. This newly-defined method is very promising for next-generation large spectroscopic surveys from the ground and in space, such as Euclid and WFIRST. A table of the reclassified VVDS redshifts and reliability is only available at the CDS via anonymous ftp to http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr (http://130.79.128.5) or via http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr/viz-bin/qcat?J/A+A/611/A53

Evaluating direct medical expenditures estimation methods of adults using the medical expenditure panel survey: an example focusing on head and neck cancer.

PubMed

Coughlan, Diarmuid; Yeh, Susan T; O'Neill, Ciaran; Frick, Kevin D

2014-01-01

To inform policymakers of the importance of evaluating various methods for estimating the direct medical expenditures for a low-incidence condition, head and neck cancer (HNC). Four methods of estimation have been identified: 1) summing all health care expenditures, 2) estimating disease-specific expenditures consistent with an attribution approach, 3) estimating disease-specific expenditures by matching, and 4) estimating disease-specific expenditures by using a regression-based approach. A literature review of studies (2005-2012) that used the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS) was undertaken to establish the most popular expenditure estimation methods. These methods were then applied to a sample of 120 respondents with HNC, derived from pooled data (2003-2008). The literature review shows that varying expenditure estimation methods have been used with MEPS but no study compared and contrasted all four methods. Our estimates are reflective of the national treated prevalence of HNC. The upper-bound estimate of annual direct medical expenditures of adult respondents with HNC between 2003 and 2008 was $3.18 billion (in 2008 dollars). Comparable estimates arising from methods focusing on disease-specific and incremental expenditures were all lower in magnitude. Attribution yielded annual expenditures of $1.41 billion, matching method of $1.56 billion, and regression method of $1.09 billion. This research demonstrates that variation exists across and within expenditure estimation methods applied to MEPS data. Despite concerns regarding aspects of reliability and consistency, reporting a combination of the four methods offers a degree of transparency and validity to estimating the likely range of annual direct medical expenditures of a condition. © 2013 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR) Published by International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR) All rights reserved.

Sample size and power estimation for studies with health related quality of life outcomes: a comparison of four methods using the SF-36.

PubMed

Walters, Stephen J

2004-05-25

We describe and compare four different methods for estimating sample size and power, when the primary outcome of the study is a Health Related Quality of Life (HRQoL) measure. These methods are: 1. assuming a Normal distribution and comparing two means; 2. using a non-parametric method; 3. Whitehead's method based on the proportional odds model; 4. the bootstrap. We illustrate the various methods, using data from the SF-36. For simplicity this paper deals with studies designed to compare the effectiveness (or superiority) of a new treatment compared to a standard treatment at a single point in time. The results show that if the HRQoL outcome has a limited number of discrete values (< 7) and/or the expected proportion of cases at the boundaries is high (scoring 0 or 100), then we would recommend using Whitehead's method (Method 3). Alternatively, if the HRQoL outcome has a large number of distinct values and the proportion at the boundaries is low, then we would recommend using Method 1. If a pilot or historical dataset is readily available (to estimate the shape of the distribution) then bootstrap simulation (Method 4) based on this data will provide a more accurate and reliable sample size estimate than conventional methods (Methods 1, 2, or 3). In the absence of a reliable pilot set, bootstrapping is not appropriate and conventional methods of sample size estimation or simulation will need to be used. Fortunately, with the increasing use of HRQoL outcomes in research, historical datasets are becoming more readily available. Strictly speaking, our results and conclusions only apply to the SF-36 outcome measure. Further empirical work is required to see whether these results hold true for other HRQoL outcomes. However, the SF-36 has many features in common with other HRQoL outcomes: multi-dimensional, ordinal or discrete response categories with upper and lower bounds, and skewed distributions, so therefore, we believe these results and conclusions using the SF-36 will be appropriate for other HRQoL measures.

Postmortem time estimation using body temperature and a finite-element computer model.

PubMed

den Hartog, Emiel A; Lotens, Wouter A

2004-09-01

In the Netherlands most murder victims are found 2-24 h after the crime. During this period, body temperature decrease is the most reliable method to estimate the postmortem time (PMT). Recently, two murder cases were analysed in which currently available methods did not provide a sufficiently reliable estimate of the PMT. In both cases a study was performed to verify the statements of suspects. For this purpose a finite-element computer model was developed that simulates a human torso and its clothing. With this model, changes to the body and the environment can also be modelled; this was very relevant in one of the cases, as the body had been in the presence of a small fire. In both cases it was possible to falsify the statements of the suspects by improving the accuracy of the PMT estimate. The estimated PMT in both cases was within the range of Henssge's model. The standard deviation of the PMT estimate was 35 min in the first case and 45 min in the second case, compared to 168 min (2.8 h) in Henssge's model. In conclusion, the model as presented here can have additional value for improving the accuracy of the PMT estimate. In contrast to the simple model of Henssge, the current model allows for increased accuracy when more detailed information is available. Moreover, the sensitivity of the predicted PMT for uncertainty in the circumstances can be studied, which is crucial to the confidence of the judge in the results.

Reliability of Pressure Ulcer Rates: How Precisely Can We Differentiate Among Hospital Units, and Does the Standard Signal-Noise Reliability Measure Reflect This Precision?

PubMed

Staggs, Vincent S; Cramer, Emily

2016-08-01

Hospital performance reports often include rankings of unit pressure ulcer rates. Differentiating among units on the basis of quality requires reliable measurement. Our objectives were to describe and apply methods for assessing reliability of hospital-acquired pressure ulcer rates and evaluate a standard signal-noise reliability measure as an indicator of precision of differentiation among units. Quarterly pressure ulcer data from 8,199 critical care, step-down, medical, surgical, and medical-surgical nursing units from 1,299 US hospitals were analyzed. Using beta-binomial models, we estimated between-unit variability (signal) and within-unit variability (noise) in annual unit pressure ulcer rates. Signal-noise reliability was computed as the ratio of between-unit variability to the total of between- and within-unit variability. To assess precision of differentiation among units based on ranked pressure ulcer rates, we simulated data to estimate the probabilities of a unit's observed pressure ulcer rate rank in a given sample falling within five and ten percentiles of its true rank, and the probabilities of units with ulcer rates in the highest quartile and highest decile being identified as such. We assessed the signal-noise measure as an indicator of differentiation precision by computing its correlations with these probabilities. Pressure ulcer rates based on a single year of quarterly or weekly prevalence surveys were too susceptible to noise to allow for precise differentiation among units, and signal-noise reliability was a poor indicator of precision of differentiation. To ensure precise differentiation on the basis of true differences, alternative methods of assessing reliability should be applied to measures purported to differentiate among providers or units based on quality. © 2016 The Authors. Research in Nursing & Health published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 The Authors. Research in Nursing & Health published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A dynamical systems approach for estimating phase interactions between rhythms of different frequencies from experimental data.

PubMed

Onojima, Takayuki; Goto, Takahiro; Mizuhara, Hiroaki; Aoyagi, Toshio

2018-01-01

Synchronization of neural oscillations as a mechanism of brain function is attracting increasing attention. Neural oscillation is a rhythmic neural activity that can be easily observed by noninvasive electroencephalography (EEG). Neural oscillations show the same frequency and cross-frequency synchronization for various cognitive and perceptual functions. However, it is unclear how this neural synchronization is achieved by a dynamical system. If neural oscillations are weakly coupled oscillators, the dynamics of neural synchronization can be described theoretically using a phase oscillator model. We propose an estimation method to identify the phase oscillator model from real data of cross-frequency synchronized activities. The proposed method can estimate the coupling function governing the properties of synchronization. Furthermore, we examine the reliability of the proposed method using time-series data obtained from numerical simulation and an electronic circuit experiment, and show that our method can estimate the coupling function correctly. Finally, we estimate the coupling function between EEG oscillation and the speech sound envelope, and discuss the validity of these results.

Robust Coefficients Alpha and Omega and Confidence Intervals With Outlying Observations and Missing Data: Methods and Software.

PubMed

Zhang, Zhiyong; Yuan, Ke-Hai

2016-06-01

Cronbach's coefficient alpha is a widely used reliability measure in social, behavioral, and education sciences. It is reported in nearly every study that involves measuring a construct through multiple items. With non-tau-equivalent items, McDonald's omega has been used as a popular alternative to alpha in the literature. Traditional estimation methods for alpha and omega often implicitly assume that data are complete and normally distributed. This study proposes robust procedures to estimate both alpha and omega as well as corresponding standard errors and confidence intervals from samples that may contain potential outlying observations and missing values. The influence of outlying observations and missing data on the estimates of alpha and omega is investigated through two simulation studies. Results show that the newly developed robust method yields substantially improved alpha and omega estimates as well as better coverage rates of confidence intervals than the conventional nonrobust method. An R package coefficientalpha is developed and demonstrated to obtain robust estimates of alpha and omega.

Artificial Intelligence Estimation of Carotid-Femoral Pulse Wave Velocity using Carotid Waveform.

PubMed

Tavallali, Peyman; Razavi, Marianne; Pahlevan, Niema M

2018-01-17

In this article, we offer an artificial intelligence method to estimate the carotid-femoral Pulse Wave Velocity (PWV) non-invasively from one uncalibrated carotid waveform measured by tonometry and few routine clinical variables. Since the signal processing inputs to this machine learning algorithm are sensor agnostic, the presented method can accompany any medical instrument that provides a calibrated or uncalibrated carotid pressure waveform. Our results show that, for an unseen hold back test set population in the age range of 20 to 69, our model can estimate PWV with a Root-Mean-Square Error (RMSE) of 1.12 m/sec compared to the reference method. The results convey the fact that this model is a reliable surrogate of PWV. Our study also showed that estimated PWV was significantly associated with an increased risk of CVDs.

Joint Estimation of Source Range and Depth Using a Bottom-Deployed Vertical Line Array in Deep Water

PubMed Central

Li, Hui; Yang, Kunde; Duan, Rui; Lei, Zhixiong

2017-01-01

This paper presents a joint estimation method of source range and depth using a bottom-deployed vertical line array (VLA). The method utilizes the information on the arrival angle of direct (D) path in space domain and the interference characteristic of D and surface-reflected (SR) paths in frequency domain. The former is related to a ray tracing technique to backpropagate the rays and produces an ambiguity surface of source range. The latter utilizes Lloyd’s mirror principle to obtain an ambiguity surface of source depth. The acoustic transmission duct is the well-known reliable acoustic path (RAP). The ambiguity surface of the combined estimation is a dimensionless ad hoc function. Numerical efficiency and experimental verification show that the proposed method is a good candidate for initial coarse estimation of source position. PMID:28590442

Estimations of population density for selected periods between the Neolithic and AD 1800.

PubMed

Zimmermann, Andreas; Hilpert, Johanna; Wendt, Karl Peter

2009-04-01

Abstract We describe a combination of methods applied to obtain reliable estimations of population density using archaeological data. The combination is based on a hierarchical model of scale levels. The necessary data and methods used to obtain the results are chosen so as to define transfer functions from one scale level to another. We apply our method to data sets from western Germany that cover early Neolithic, Iron Age, Roman, and Merovingian times as well as historical data from AD 1800. Error margins and natural and historical variability are discussed. Our results for nonstate societies are always lower than conventional estimations compiled from the literature, and we discuss the reasons for this finding. At the end, we compare the calculated local and global population densities with other estimations from different parts of the world.

A Radial Basis Function Approach to Financial Time Series Analysis

DTIC Science & Technology

1993-12-01

including efficient methods for parameter estimation and pruning, a pointwise prediction error estimator, and a methodology for controlling the "data...collection of practical techniques to address these issues for a modeling methodology . Radial Basis Function networks. These techniques in- clude efficient... methodology often then amounts to a careful consideration of the interplay between model complexity and reliability. These will be recurrent themes

The Statin-Associated Muscle Symptom Clinical Index (SAMS-CI): Revision for Clinical Use, Content Validation, and Inter-rater Reliability.

PubMed

Rosenson, Robert S; Miller, Kate; Bayliss, Martha; Sanchez, Robert J; Baccara-Dinet, Marie T; Chibedi-De-Roche, Daniela; Taylor, Beth; Khan, Irfan; Manvelian, Garen; White, Michelle; Jacobson, Terry A

2017-04-01

The Statin-Associated Muscle Symptom Clinical Index (SAMS-CI) is a method for assessing the likelihood that a patient's muscle symptoms (e.g., myalgia or myopathy) were caused or worsened by statin use. The objectives of this study were to prepare the SAMS-CI for clinical use, estimate its inter-rater reliability, and collect feedback from physicians on its practical application. For content validity, we conducted structured in-depth interviews with its original authors as well as with a panel of independent physicians. Estimation of inter-rater reliability involved an analysis of 30 written clinical cases which were scored by a sample of physicians. A separate group of physicians provided feedback on the clinical use of the SAMS-CI and its potential utility in practice. Qualitative interviews with providers supported the content validity of the SAMS-CI. Feedback on the clinical use of the SAMS-CI included several perceived benefits (such as brevity, clear wording, and simple scoring process) and some possible concerns (workflow issues and applicability in primary care). The inter-rater reliability of the SAMS-CI was estimated to be 0.77 (confidence interval 0.66-0.85), indicating high concordance between raters. With additional provider feedback, a revised SAMS-CI instrument was created suitable for further testing, both in the clinical setting and in prospective validation studies. With standardized questions, vetted language, easily interpreted scores, and demonstrated reliability, the SAMS aims to estimate the likelihood that a patient's muscle symptoms were attributable to statins. The SAMS-CI may support better detection of statin-associated muscle symptoms in clinical practice, optimize treatment for patients experiencing muscle symptoms, and provide a useful tool for further clinical research.

The magnitude of variability produced by methods used to estimate annual stormwater contaminant loads for highly urbanised catchments.

PubMed

Beck, H J; Birch, G F

2013-06-01

Stormwater contaminant loading estimates using event mean concentration (EMC), rainfall/runoff relationship calculations and computer modelling (Model of Urban Stormwater Infrastructure Conceptualisation--MUSIC) demonstrated high variability in common methods of water quality assessment. Predictions of metal, nutrient and total suspended solid loadings for three highly urbanised catchments in Sydney estuary, Australia, varied greatly within and amongst methods tested. EMC and rainfall/runoff relationship calculations produced similar estimates (within 1 SD) in a statistically significant number of trials; however, considerable variability within estimates (∼50 and ∼25 % relative standard deviation, respectively) questions the reliability of these methods. Likewise, upper and lower default inputs in a commonly used loading model (MUSIC) produced an extensive range of loading estimates (3.8-8.3 times above and 2.6-4.1 times below typical default inputs, respectively). Default and calibrated MUSIC simulations produced loading estimates that agreed with EMC and rainfall/runoff calculations in some trials (4-10 from 18); however, they were not frequent enough to statistically infer that these methods produced the same results. Great variance within and amongst mean annual loads estimated by common methods of water quality assessment has important ramifications for water quality managers requiring accurate estimates of the quantities and nature of contaminants requiring treatment.

A Bayes linear Bayes method for estimation of correlated event rates.

PubMed

Quigley, John; Wilson, Kevin J; Walls, Lesley; Bedford, Tim

2013-12-01

Typically, full Bayesian estimation of correlated event rates can be computationally challenging since estimators are intractable. When estimation of event rates represents one activity within a larger modeling process, there is an incentive to develop more efficient inference than provided by a full Bayesian model. We develop a new subjective inference method for correlated event rates based on a Bayes linear Bayes model under the assumption that events are generated from a homogeneous Poisson process. To reduce the elicitation burden we introduce homogenization factors to the model and, as an alternative to a subjective prior, an empirical method using the method of moments is developed. Inference under the new method is compared against estimates obtained under a full Bayesian model, which takes a multivariate gamma prior, where the predictive and posterior distributions are derived in terms of well-known functions. The mathematical properties of both models are presented. A simulation study shows that the Bayes linear Bayes inference method and the full Bayesian model provide equally reliable estimates. An illustrative example, motivated by a problem of estimating correlated event rates across different users in a simple supply chain, shows how ignoring the correlation leads to biased estimation of event rates. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

Comparing Fit and Reliability Estimates of a Psychological Instrument Using Second-Order CFA, Bifactor, and Essentially Tau-Equivalent (Coefficient Alpha) Models via AMOS 22

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Black, Ryan A.; Yang, Yanyun; Beitra, Danette; McCaffrey, Stacey

2015-01-01

Estimation of composite reliability within a hierarchical modeling framework has recently become of particular interest given the growing recognition that the underlying assumptions of coefficient alpha are often untenable. Unfortunately, coefficient alpha remains the prominent estimate of reliability when estimating total scores from a scale with…

Model uncertainty and multimodel inference in reliability estimation within a longitudinal framework.

PubMed

Alonso, Ariel; Laenen, Annouschka

2013-05-01

Laenen, Alonso, and Molenberghs (2007) and Laenen, Alonso, Molenberghs, and Vangeneugden (2009) proposed a method to assess the reliability of rating scales in a longitudinal context. The methodology is based on hierarchical linear models, and reliability coefficients are derived from the corresponding covariance matrices. However, finding a good parsimonious model to describe complex longitudinal data is a challenging task. Frequently, several models fit the data equally well, raising the problem of model selection uncertainty. When model uncertainty is high one may resort to model averaging, where inferences are based not on one but on an entire set of models. We explored the use of different model building strategies, including model averaging, in reliability estimation. We found that the approach introduced by Laenen et al. (2007, 2009) combined with some of these strategies may yield meaningful results in the presence of high model selection uncertainty and when all models are misspecified, in so far as some of them manage to capture the most salient features of the data. Nonetheless, when all models omit prominent regularities in the data, misleading results may be obtained. The main ideas are further illustrated on a case study in which the reliability of the Hamilton Anxiety Rating Scale is estimated. Importantly, the ambit of model selection uncertainty and model averaging transcends the specific setting studied in the paper and may be of interest in other areas of psychometrics. © 2012 The British Psychological Society.

TLE uncertainty estimation using robust weighted differencing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geul, Jacco; Mooij, Erwin; Noomen, Ron

2017-05-01

Accurate knowledge of satellite orbit errors is essential for many types of analyses. Unfortunately, for two-line elements (TLEs) this is not available. This paper presents a weighted differencing method using robust least-squares regression for estimating many important error characteristics. The method is applied to both classic and enhanced TLEs, compared to previous implementations, and validated using Global Positioning System (GPS) solutions for the GOCE satellite in Low-Earth Orbit (LEO), prior to its re-entry. The method is found to be more accurate than previous TLE differencing efforts in estimating initial uncertainty, as well as error growth. The method also proves more reliable and requires no data filtering (such as outlier removal). Sensitivity analysis shows a strong relationship between argument of latitude and covariance (standard deviations and correlations), which the method is able to approximate. Overall, the method proves accurate, computationally fast, and robust, and is applicable to any object in the satellite catalogue (SATCAT).

REVERBERATION AND PHOTOIONIZATION ESTIMATES OF THE BROAD-LINE REGION RADIUS IN LOW-z QUASARS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Negrete, C. Alenka; Dultzin, Deborah; Marziani, Paola

2013-07-01

Black hole mass estimation in quasars, especially at high redshift, involves the use of single-epoch spectra with signal-to-noise ratio and resolution that permit accurate measurement of the width of a broad line assumed to be a reliable virial estimator. Coupled with an estimate of the radius of the broad-line region (BLR) this yields the black hole mass M{sub BH}. The radius of the BLR may be inferred from an extrapolation of the correlation between source luminosity and reverberation-derived r{sub BLR} measures (the so-called Kaspi relation involving about 60 low-z sources). We are exploring a different method for estimating r{sub BLR}more » directly from inferred physical conditions in the BLR of each source. We report here on a comparison of r{sub BLR} estimates that come from our method and from reverberation mapping. Our ''photoionization'' method employs diagnostic line intensity ratios in the rest-frame range 1400-2000 A (Al III {lambda}1860/Si III] {lambda}1892, C IV {lambda}1549/Al III {lambda}1860) that enable derivation of the product of density and ionization parameter with the BLR distance derived from the definition of the ionization parameter. We find good agreement between our estimates of the density, ionization parameter, and r{sub BLR} and those from reverberation mapping. We suggest empirical corrections to improve the agreement between individual photoionization-derived r{sub BLR} values and those obtained from reverberation mapping. The results in this paper can be exploited to estimate M{sub BH} for large samples of high-z quasars using an appropriate virial broadening estimator. We show that the width of the UV intermediate emission lines are consistent with the width of H{beta}, thereby providing a reliable virial broadening estimator that can be measured in large samples of high-z quasars.« less

Joint state and parameter estimation of the hemodynamic model by particle smoother expectation maximization method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aslan, Serdar; Taylan Cemgil, Ali; Akın, Ata

2016-08-01

Objective. In this paper, we aimed for the robust estimation of the parameters and states of the hemodynamic model by using blood oxygen level dependent signal. Approach. In the fMRI literature, there are only a few successful methods that are able to make a joint estimation of the states and parameters of the hemodynamic model. In this paper, we implemented a maximum likelihood based method called the particle smoother expectation maximization (PSEM) algorithm for the joint state and parameter estimation. Main results. Former sequential Monte Carlo methods were only reliable in the hemodynamic state estimates. They were claimed to outperform the local linearization (LL) filter and the extended Kalman filter (EKF). The PSEM algorithm is compared with the most successful method called square-root cubature Kalman smoother (SCKS) for both state and parameter estimation. SCKS was found to be better than the dynamic expectation maximization (DEM) algorithm, which was shown to be a better estimator than EKF, LL and particle filters. Significance. PSEM was more accurate than SCKS for both the state and the parameter estimation. Hence, PSEM seems to be the most accurate method for the system identification and state estimation for the hemodynamic model inversion literature. This paper do not compare its results with Tikhonov-regularized Newton—CKF (TNF-CKF), a recent robust method which works in filtering sense.

Residual stress measurement in a metal microdevice by micro Raman spectroscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Chang; Du, Liqun; Qi, Leijie; Li, Yu; Li, Xiaojun; Li, Yuanqi

2017-10-01

Large residual stress induced during the electroforming process cannot be ignored to fabricate reliable metal microdevices. Accurate measurement is the basis for studying the residual stress. Influenced by the topological feature size of micron scale in the metal microdevice, residual stress in it can hardly be measured by common methods. In this manuscript, a methodology is proposed to measure the residual stress in the metal microdevice using micro Raman spectroscopy (MRS). To estimate the residual stress in metal materials, micron sized β-SiC particles were mixed in the electroforming solution for codeposition. First, the calculated expression relating the Raman shifts to the induced biaxial stress for β-SiC was derived based on the theory of phonon deformation potentials and Hooke’s law. Corresponding micro electroforming experiments were performed and the residual stress in Ni-SiC composite layer was both measured by x-ray diffraction (XRD) and MRS methods. Then, the validity of the MRS measurements was verified by comparing with the residual stress measured by XRD method. The reliability of the MRS method was further validated by the statistical student’s t-test. The MRS measurements were found to have no systematic error in comparison with the XRD measurements, which confirm that the residual stresses measured by the MRS method are reliable. Besides that, the MRS method, by which the residual stress in a micro inertial switch was measured, has been confirmed to be a convincing experiment tool for estimating the residual stress in metal microdevice with micron order topological feature size.

A Comparison of Three Multivariate Models for Estimating Test Battery Reliability.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wood, Terry M.; Safrit, Margaret J.

1987-01-01

A comparison of three multivariate models (canonical reliability model, maximum generalizability model, canonical correlation model) for estimating test battery reliability indicated that the maximum generalizability model showed the least degree of bias, smallest errors in estimation, and the greatest relative efficiency across all experimental…

Rapid Contour-based Segmentation for 18F-FDG PET Imaging of Lung Tumors by Using ITK-SNAP: Comparison to Expert-based Segmentation.

PubMed

Besson, Florent L; Henry, Théophraste; Meyer, Céline; Chevance, Virgile; Roblot, Victoire; Blanchet, Elise; Arnould, Victor; Grimon, Gilles; Chekroun, Malika; Mabille, Laurence; Parent, Florence; Seferian, Andrei; Bulifon, Sophie; Montani, David; Humbert, Marc; Chaumet-Riffaud, Philippe; Lebon, Vincent; Durand, Emmanuel

2018-04-03

Purpose To assess the performance of the ITK-SNAP software for fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography (PET) segmentation of complex-shaped lung tumors compared with an optimized, expert-based manual reference standard. Materials and Methods Seventy-six FDG PET images of thoracic lesions were retrospectively segmented by using ITK-SNAP software. Each tumor was manually segmented by six raters to generate an optimized reference standard by using the simultaneous truth and performance level estimate algorithm. Four raters segmented 76 FDG PET images of lung tumors twice by using ITK-SNAP active contour algorithm. Accuracy of ITK-SNAP procedure was assessed by using Dice coefficient and Hausdorff metric. Interrater and intrarater reliability were estimated by using intraclass correlation coefficients of output volumes. Finally, the ITK-SNAP procedure was compared with currently recommended PET tumor delineation methods on the basis of thresholding at 41% volume of interest (VOI; VOI 41 ) and 50% VOI (VOI 50 ) of the tumor's maximal metabolism intensity. Results Accuracy estimates for the ITK-SNAP procedure indicated a Dice coefficient of 0.83 (95% confidence interval: 0.77, 0.89) and a Hausdorff distance of 12.6 mm (95% confidence interval: 9.82, 15.32). Interrater reliability was an intraclass correlation coefficient of 0.94 (95% confidence interval: 0.91, 0.96). The intrarater reliabilities were intraclass correlation coefficients above 0.97. Finally, VOI 41 and VOI 50 accuracy metrics were as follows: Dice coefficient, 0.48 (95% confidence interval: 0.44, 0.51) and 0.34 (95% confidence interval: 0.30, 0.38), respectively, and Hausdorff distance, 25.6 mm (95% confidence interval: 21.7, 31.4) and 31.3 mm (95% confidence interval: 26.8, 38.4), respectively. Conclusion ITK-SNAP is accurate and reliable for active-contour-based segmentation of heterogeneous thoracic PET tumors. ITK-SNAP surpassed the recommended PET methods compared with ground truth manual segmentation. © RSNA, 2018.

Estimating the capacity value of concentrating solar power plants: A case study of the southwestern United States

DOE PAGES

Madaeni, Seyed Hossein; Sioshansi, Ramteen; Denholm, Paul

2012-01-27

Here, we estimate the capacity value of concentrating solar power (CSP) plants without thermal energy storage in the southwestern U.S. Our results show that CSP plants have capacity values that are between 45% and 95% of maximum capacity, depending on their location and configuration. We also examine the sensitivity of the capacity value of CSP to a number of factors and show that capacity factor-based methods can provide reasonable approximations of reliability-based estimates.

Force-length relationship in the pelvic floor muscles under transverse vaginal distension: a method study in healthy women.

PubMed

Verelst, M; Leivseth, G

2004-01-01

The purpose of this study was to investigate whether there is a relationship between changes in the diameter of the urogenital hiatus and force developed in pelvic floor musculature. In addition, we wanted to examine the reliability of the method that measures force development in the pelvic floor in the transverse direction of the urogenital hiatus. Passive and total force in the pelvic floor was measured with an intra-vaginal device in 20 healthy parous volunteers. The measurements were done with a consecutively increasing diameter in the transverse plane of the urogenital hiatus. The procedure was repeated with a few days interval. The measurements show an increase in force with an increasing device-diameter. The results are reliable at all the diameters tested, estimated by the within-subject day-to-day variability which was non-significant. The 40 mm diameter device is most favourable, estimated by Bland Altman plots of the test-retest measurements. Force development in pelvic floor muscles increased as a function of vaginal diameter when measured in the frontal plane. The measurements were reliable at all the different diameters chosen. 2004 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Patient-specific lean body mass can be estimated from limited-coverage computed tomography images.

PubMed

Devriese, Joke; Beels, Laurence; Maes, Alex; van de Wiele, Christophe; Pottel, Hans

2018-06-01

In PET/CT, quantitative evaluation of tumour metabolic activity is possible through standardized uptake values, usually normalized for body weight (BW) or lean body mass (LBM). Patient-specific LBM can be estimated from whole-body (WB) CT images. As most clinical indications only warrant PET/CT examinations covering head to midthigh, the aim of this study was to develop a simple and reliable method to estimate LBM from limited-coverage (LC) CT images and test its validity. Head-to-toe PET/CT examinations were retrospectively retrieved and semiautomatically segmented into tissue types based on thresholding of CT Hounsfield units. LC was obtained by omitting image slices. Image segmentation was validated on the WB CT examinations by comparing CT-estimated BW with actual BW, and LBM estimated from LC images were compared with LBM estimated from WB images. A direct method and an indirect method were developed and validated on an independent data set. Comparing LBM estimated from LC examinations with estimates from WB examinations (LBMWB) showed a significant but limited bias of 1.2 kg (direct method) and nonsignificant bias of 0.05 kg (indirect method). This study demonstrates that LBM can be estimated from LC CT images with no significant difference from LBMWB.

An Efficient and Reliable Statistical Method for Estimating Functional Connectivity in Large Scale Brain Networks Using Partial Correlation

PubMed Central

Wang, Yikai; Kang, Jian; Kemmer, Phebe B.; Guo, Ying

2016-01-01

Currently, network-oriented analysis of fMRI data has become an important tool for understanding brain organization and brain networks. Among the range of network modeling methods, partial correlation has shown great promises in accurately detecting true brain network connections. However, the application of partial correlation in investigating brain connectivity, especially in large-scale brain networks, has been limited so far due to the technical challenges in its estimation. In this paper, we propose an efficient and reliable statistical method for estimating partial correlation in large-scale brain network modeling. Our method derives partial correlation based on the precision matrix estimated via Constrained L1-minimization Approach (CLIME), which is a recently developed statistical method that is more efficient and demonstrates better performance than the existing methods. To help select an appropriate tuning parameter for sparsity control in the network estimation, we propose a new Dens-based selection method that provides a more informative and flexible tool to allow the users to select the tuning parameter based on the desired sparsity level. Another appealing feature of the Dens-based method is that it is much faster than the existing methods, which provides an important advantage in neuroimaging applications. Simulation studies show that the Dens-based method demonstrates comparable or better performance with respect to the existing methods in network estimation. We applied the proposed partial correlation method to investigate resting state functional connectivity using rs-fMRI data from the Philadelphia Neurodevelopmental Cohort (PNC) study. Our results show that partial correlation analysis removed considerable between-module marginal connections identified by full correlation analysis, suggesting these connections were likely caused by global effects or common connection to other nodes. Based on partial correlation, we find that the most significant direct connections are between homologous brain locations in the left and right hemisphere. When comparing partial correlation derived under different sparse tuning parameters, an important finding is that the sparse regularization has more shrinkage effects on negative functional connections than on positive connections, which supports previous findings that many of the negative brain connections are due to non-neurophysiological effects. An R package “DensParcorr” can be downloaded from CRAN for implementing the proposed statistical methods. PMID:27242395

An Efficient and Reliable Statistical Method for Estimating Functional Connectivity in Large Scale Brain Networks Using Partial Correlation.

PubMed

Wang, Yikai; Kang, Jian; Kemmer, Phebe B; Guo, Ying

2016-01-01

Currently, network-oriented analysis of fMRI data has become an important tool for understanding brain organization and brain networks. Among the range of network modeling methods, partial correlation has shown great promises in accurately detecting true brain network connections. However, the application of partial correlation in investigating brain connectivity, especially in large-scale brain networks, has been limited so far due to the technical challenges in its estimation. In this paper, we propose an efficient and reliable statistical method for estimating partial correlation in large-scale brain network modeling. Our method derives partial correlation based on the precision matrix estimated via Constrained L1-minimization Approach (CLIME), which is a recently developed statistical method that is more efficient and demonstrates better performance than the existing methods. To help select an appropriate tuning parameter for sparsity control in the network estimation, we propose a new Dens-based selection method that provides a more informative and flexible tool to allow the users to select the tuning parameter based on the desired sparsity level. Another appealing feature of the Dens-based method is that it is much faster than the existing methods, which provides an important advantage in neuroimaging applications. Simulation studies show that the Dens-based method demonstrates comparable or better performance with respect to the existing methods in network estimation. We applied the proposed partial correlation method to investigate resting state functional connectivity using rs-fMRI data from the Philadelphia Neurodevelopmental Cohort (PNC) study. Our results show that partial correlation analysis removed considerable between-module marginal connections identified by full correlation analysis, suggesting these connections were likely caused by global effects or common connection to other nodes. Based on partial correlation, we find that the most significant direct connections are between homologous brain locations in the left and right hemisphere. When comparing partial correlation derived under different sparse tuning parameters, an important finding is that the sparse regularization has more shrinkage effects on negative functional connections than on positive connections, which supports previous findings that many of the negative brain connections are due to non-neurophysiological effects. An R package "DensParcorr" can be downloaded from CRAN for implementing the proposed statistical methods.

Feasibility of the Two-Point Method for Determining the One-Repetition Maximum in the Bench Press Exercise.

PubMed

García-Ramos, Amador; Haff, Guy Gregory; Pestaña-Melero, Francisco Luis; Pérez-Castilla, Alejandro; Rojas, Francisco Javier; Balsalobre-Fernández, Carlos; Jaric, Slobodan

2017-09-05

This study compared the concurrent validity and reliability of previously proposed generalized group equations for estimating the bench press (BP) one-repetition maximum (1RM) with the individualized load-velocity relationship modelled with a two-point method. Thirty men (BP 1RM relative to body mass: 1.08 0.18 kg·kg -1 ) performed two incremental loading tests in the concentric-only BP exercise and another two in the eccentric-concentric BP exercise to assess their actual 1RM and load-velocity relationships. A high velocity (≈ 1 m·s -1 ) and a low velocity (≈ 0.5 m·s -1 ) was selected from their load-velocity relationships to estimate the 1RM from generalized group equations and through an individual linear model obtained from the two velocities. The directly measured 1RM was highly correlated with all predicted 1RMs (r range: 0.847-0.977). The generalized group equations systematically underestimated the actual 1RM when predicted from the concentric-only BP (P <0.001; effect size [ES] range: 0.15-0.94), but overestimated it when predicted from the eccentric-concentric BP (P <0.001; ES range: 0.36-0.98). Conversely, a low systematic bias (range: -2.3-0.5 kg) and random errors (range: 3.0-3.8 kg), no heteroscedasticity of errors (r 2 range: 0.053-0.082), and trivial ES (range: -0.17-0.04) were observed when the prediction was based on the two-point method. Although all examined methods reported the 1RM with high reliability (CV≤5.1%; ICC≥0.89), the direct method was the most reliable (CV<2.0%; ICC≥0.98). The quick, fatigue-free, and practical two-point method was able to predict the BP 1RM with high reliability and practically perfect validity, and therefore we recommend its use over generalized group equations.

Using remote sensing and GIS techniques to estimate discharge and recharge. fluxes for the Death Valley regional groundwater flow system, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

D'Agnese, F. A.; Faunt, C.C.; Keith, Turner A.

1996-01-01

The recharge and discharge components of the Death Valley regional groundwater flow system were defined by remote sensing and GIS techniques that integrated disparate data types to develop a spatially complex representation of near-surface hydrological processes. Image classification methods were applied to multispectral satellite data to produce a vegetation map. This map provided a basis for subsequent evapotranspiration and infiltration estimations. The vegetation map was combined with ancillary data in a GIS to delineate different types of wetlands, phreatophytes and wet playa areas. Existing evapotranspiration-rate estimates were then used to calculate discharge volumes for these areas. A previously used empirical method of groundwater recharge estimation was modified by GIS methods to incorporate data describing soil-moisture conditions, and a recharge potential map was produced. These discharge and recharge maps were readily converted to data arrays for numerical modelling codes. Inverse parameter estimation techniques also used these data to evaluate the reliability and sensitivity of estimated values.

Assessment of pollutant mean concentrations in the Yangtze estuary based on MSN theory.

PubMed

Ren, Jing; Gao, Bing-Bo; Fan, Hai-Mei; Zhang, Zhi-Hong; Zhang, Yao; Wang, Jin-Feng

2016-12-15

Reliable assessment of water quality is a critical issue for estuaries. Nutrient concentrations show significant spatial distinctions between areas under the influence of fresh-sea water interaction and anthropogenic effects. For this situation, given the limitations of general mean estimation approaches, a new method for surfaces with non-homogeneity (MSN) was applied to obtain optimized linear unbiased estimations of the mean nutrient concentrations in the study area in the Yangtze estuary from 2011 to 2013. Other mean estimation methods, including block Kriging (BK), simple random sampling (SS) and stratified sampling (ST) inference, were applied simultaneously for comparison. Their performance was evaluated by estimation error. The results show that MSN had the highest accuracy, while SS had the highest estimation error. ST and BK were intermediate in terms of their performance. Thus, MSN is an appropriate method that can be adopted to reduce the uncertainty of mean pollutant estimation in estuaries. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Improved localisation of neoclassical tearing modes by combining multiple diagnostic estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rapson, C. J.; Fischer, R.; Giannone, L.; Maraschek, M.; Reich, M.; Treutterer, W.; The ASDEX Upgrade Team

2017-07-01

Neoclassical tearing modes (NTMs) strongly degrade confinement in tokamaks, and are a leading cause of disruptions. They can be stabilised by targeted electron cyclotron current drive (ECCD), however the effectiveness of ECCD depends strongly on the accuracy or misalignment between ECCD and the NTM. The first step to ensure minimal misalignment is a good estimate of the NTM location. In previous NTM control experiments, three methods have been used independently to estimate the NTM location: the magnetic equilibrium, correlation between magnetic and spatially-resolved temperature fluctuations, and the amplitude response of the NTM to nearby ECCD. This submission describes an algorithm which has been designed to fuse these three estimates into one, taking into account many of the characteristics of each diagnostic. Although the method diverges from standard data fusion methods, results from simulation and experiment confirm that the algorithm achieves its stated goal of providing an estimate that is more reliable and accurate than any of the individual estimates.

Estimates of population change in selected species of tropical birds using mark-recapture data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brawn, J.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.; Nesbitt, J.

2000-01-01

The population biology of tropical birds is known for a only small sample of species; especially in the Neotropics. Robust estimates of parameters such as survival rate and finite rate of population change (A) are crucial for conservation purposes and useful for studies of avian life histories. We used methods developed by Pradel (1996, Biometrics 52:703-709) to estimate A for 10 species of tropical forest lowland birds using data from a long-term (> 20 yr) banding study in Panama. These species constitute a ecologically and phylogenetically diverse sample. We present these estimates and explore if they are consistent with what we know from selected studies of banded birds and from 5 yr of estimating nesting success (i.e., an important component of A). A major goal of these analyses is to assess if the mark-recapture methods generate reliable and reasonably precise estimates of population change than traditional methods that require more sampling effort.

Turbulent heat fluxes by profile and inertial dissipation methods: analysis of the atmospheric surface layer from shipboard measurements during the SOFIA/ASTEX and SEMAPHORE experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dupuis, Hélène; Weill, Alain; Katsaros, Kristina; Taylor, Peter K.

1995-10-01

Heat flux estimates obtained using the inertial dissipation method, and the profile method applied to radiosonde soundings, are assessed with emphasis on the parameterization of the roughness lengths for temperature and specific humidity. Results from the inertial dissipation method show a decrease of the temperature and humidity roughness lengths for increasing neutral wind speed, in agreement with previous studies. The sensible heat flux estimates were obtained using the temperature estimated from the speed of sound determined by a sonic anemometer. This method seems very attractive for estimating heat fluxes over the ocean. However allowance must be made in the inertial dissipation method for non-neutral stratification. The SOFIA/ASTEX and SEMAPHORE results show that, in unstable stratification, a term due to the transport terms in the turbulent kinetic energy budget, has to be included in order to determine the friction velocity with better accuracy. Using the profile method with radiosonde data, the roughness length values showed large scatter. A reliable estimate of the temperature roughness length could not be obtained. The humidity roughness length values were compatible with those found using the inertial dissipation method.

Weibull Modulus Estimated by the Non-linear Least Squares Method: A Solution to Deviation Occurring in Traditional Weibull Estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, T.; Griffiths, W. D.; Chen, J.

2017-11-01

The Maximum Likelihood method and the Linear Least Squares (LLS) method have been widely used to estimate Weibull parameters for reliability of brittle and metal materials. In the last 30 years, many researchers focused on the bias of Weibull modulus estimation, and some improvements have been achieved, especially in the case of the LLS method. However, there is a shortcoming in these methods for a specific type of data, where the lower tail deviates dramatically from the well-known linear fit in a classic LLS Weibull analysis. This deviation can be commonly found from the measured properties of materials, and previous applications of the LLS method on this kind of dataset present an unreliable linear regression. This deviation was previously thought to be due to physical flaws ( i.e., defects) contained in materials. However, this paper demonstrates that this deviation can also be caused by the linear transformation of the Weibull function, occurring in the traditional LLS method. Accordingly, it may not be appropriate to carry out a Weibull analysis according to the linearized Weibull function, and the Non-linear Least Squares method (Non-LS) is instead recommended for the Weibull modulus estimation of casting properties.

Accuracy and reliability of pulp/tooth area ratio in upper canines by peri-apical X-rays.

PubMed

Azevedo, A C; Michel-Crosato, E; Biazevic, M G H; Galić, I; Merelli, V; De Luca, S; Cameriere, R

2014-11-01

Due to the real need for careful staff training in age assessment, in order to improve capacity, consistency and competence, new research on the reliability and repeatability of methods frequently used in age assessment are required. The aim of this study was twofold: first, to test the accuracy of this method for age estimation; second, to obtain data on the reliability of this technique. A sample of 81 peri-apical radiographs of upper canines (44 men and 37 women), aged between 19 and 74years, was used; the teeth were taken from the osteological collection of Sassari (Sardinia, Italy). Three blinded observers used the technique in order to perform the age estimation. The mean real age of the 81 observations was 37.21 (CI95% 34.37 40.05), and estimated ages ranged from 36.65 to 38.99 (CI95%-Ex1 35.42; 41.28; CI95%-Ex2 33.89; 39.41; CI95%-Ex3 35.92; 42.06). The module differences found by the three observers were 3.43, 4.24 and 4.45, respectively for Ex1×Ex2, Ex1×Ex3 and Ex2×Ex3. The module differences observed among real and observed ages were 2.55 (CI95% 1.90; 3.20), 2.22 (CI95% 1.65; 2.78) and 4.39 (CI95% 3.80; 5.75), respectively for Ex1, Ex2 and Ex3. No differences were observed among measurements. This technique can be reproduced and repeated after proper training, since it was found high reliability and accuracy. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

VET Program Completion Rates: An Evaluation of the Current Method. Occasional Paper

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National Centre for Vocational Education Research (NCVER), 2016

2016-01-01

This work asks one simple question: "how reliable is the method used by the National Centre for Vocational Education Research (NCVER) to estimate projected rates of VET program completion?" In other words, how well do early projections align with actual completion rates some years later? Completion rates are simple to calculate with a…

An Examination of Rater Performance on a Local Oral English Proficiency Test: A Mixed-Methods Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yan, Xun

2014-01-01

This paper reports on a mixed-methods approach to evaluate rater performance on a local oral English proficiency test. Three types of reliability estimates were reported to examine rater performance from different perspectives. Quantitative results were also triangulated with qualitative rater comments to arrive at a more representative picture of…

Determining 'age at death' for forensic purposes using human bone by a laboratory-based biomechanical analytical method.

PubMed

Zioupos, P; Williams, A; Christodoulou, G; Giles, R

2014-05-01

Determination of age-at-death (AAD) is an important and frequent requirement in contemporary forensic science and in the reconstruction of past populations and societies from their remains. Its estimation is relatively straightforward and accurate (±3yr) for immature skeletons by using morphological features and reference tables within the context of forensic anthropology. However, after skeletal maturity (>35yr) estimates become inaccurate, particularly in the legal context. In line with the general migration of all the forensic sciences from reliance upon empirical criteria to those which are more evidence-based, AAD determination should rely more-and-more upon more quantitative methods. We explore here whether well-known changes in the biomechanical properties of bone and the properties of bone matrix, which have been seen to change with age even after skeletal maturity in a traceable manner, can be used to provide a reliable estimate of AAD. This method charts a combination of physical characteristics some of which are measured at a macroscopic level (wet & dry apparent density, porosity, organic/mineral/water fractions, collagen thermal degradation properties, ash content) and others at the microscopic level (Ca/P ratios, osteonal and matrix microhardness, image analysis of sections). This method produced successful age estimates on a cohort of 12 donors of age 53-85yr (7 male, 5 female), where the age of the individual could be approximated within less than ±1yr. This represents a vastly improved level of accuracy than currently extant age estimation techniques. It also presents: (1) a greater level of reliability and objectivity as the results are not dependent on the experience and expertise of the observer, as is so often the case in forensic skeletal age estimation methods; (2) it is purely laboratory-based analytical technique which can be carried out by someone with technical skills and not the specialised forensic anthropology experience; (3) it can be applied worldwide following stringent laboratory protocols. As such, this technique contributes significantly to improving age estimation and therefore identification methods for forensic and other purposes. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effect of the precipitation interpolation method on the performance of a snowmelt runoff model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jacquin, Alexandra

2014-05-01

Uncertainties on the spatial distribution of precipitation seriously affect the reliability of the discharge estimates produced by watershed models. Although there is abundant research evaluating the goodness of fit of precipitation estimates obtained with different gauge interpolation methods, few studies have focused on the influence of the interpolation strategy on the response of watershed models. The relevance of this choice may be even greater in the case of mountain catchments, because of the influence of orography on precipitation. This study evaluates the effect of the precipitation interpolation method on the performance of conceptual type snowmelt runoff models. The HBV Light model version 4.0.0.2, operating at daily time steps, is used as a case study. The model is applied in Aconcagua at Chacabuquito catchment, located in the Andes Mountains of Central Chile. The catchment's area is 2110[Km2] and elevation ranges from 950[m.a.s.l.] to 5930[m.a.s.l.] The local meteorological network is sparse, with all precipitation gauges located below 3000[m.a.s.l.] Precipitation amounts corresponding to different elevation zones are estimated through areal averaging of precipitation fields interpolated from gauge data. Interpolation methods applied include kriging with external drift (KED), optimal interpolation method (OIM), Thiessen polygons (TP), multiquadratic functions fitting (MFF) and inverse distance weighting (IDW). Both KED and OIM are able to account for the existence of a spatial trend in the expectation of precipitation. By contrast, TP, MFF and IDW, traditional methods widely used in engineering hydrology, cannot explicitly incorporate this information. Preliminary analysis confirmed that these methods notably underestimate precipitation in the study catchment, while KED and OIM are able to reduce the bias; this analysis also revealed that OIM provides more reliable estimations than KED in this region. Using input precipitation obtained by each method, HBV parameters are calibrated with respect to Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency. The performance of HBV in the study catchment is not satisfactory. Although volumetric errors are modest, efficiency values are lower than 70%. Discharge estimates resulting from the application of TP, MFF and IDW obtain similar model efficiencies and volumetric errors. These error statistics moderately improve if KED or OIM are used instead. Even though the quality of precipitation estimates of distinct interpolation methods is dissimilar, the results of this study show that these differences do not necessarily produce noticeable changes in HBV's model performance statistics. This situation arises because the calibration of the model parameters allows some degree of compensation of deficient areal precipitation estimates, mainly through the adjustment of model simulated evaporation and glacier melt, as revealed by the analysis of water balances. In general, even if there is a good agreement between model estimated and observed discharge, this information is not sufficient to assert that the internal hydrological processes of the catchment are properly simulated by a watershed model. Other calibration criteria should be incorporated if a more reliable representation of these processes is desired. Acknowledgements: This research was funded by FONDECYT, Research Project 1110279. The HBV Light software used in this study was kindly provided by J. Seibert, Department of Geography, University of Zürich.

Testing inter-observer reliability of the Transition Analysis aging method on the William M. Bass forensic skeletal collection.

PubMed

Fojas, Christina L; Kim, Jieun; Minsky-Rowland, Jocelyn D; Algee-Hewitt, Bridget F B

2018-01-01

Skeletal age estimation is an integral part of the biological profile. Recent work shows how multiple-trait approaches better capture senescence as it occurs at different rates among individuals. Furthermore, a Bayesian statistical framework of analysis provides more useful age estimates. The component-scoring method of Transition Analysis (TA) may resolve many of the functional and statistical limitations of traditional phase-aging methods and is applicable to both paleodemography and forensic casework. The present study contributes to TA-research by validating TA for multiple, differently experienced observers using a collection of modern forensic skeletal cases. Five researchers independently applied TA to a random sample of 58 documented individuals from the William M. Bass Forensic Skeletal Collection, for whom knowledge of chronological age was withheld. Resulting scores were input into the ADBOU software and maximum likelihood estimates (MLEs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were produced using the forensic prior. Krippendorff's alpha was used to evaluate interrater reliability and agreement. Inaccuracy and bias were measured to gauge the magnitude and direction of difference between estimated ages and chronological ages among the five observers. The majority of traits had moderate to excellent agreement among observers (≥0.6). The superior surface morphology had the least congruence (0.4), while the ventral symphyseal margin had the most (0.9) among scores. Inaccuracy was the lowest for individuals younger than 30 and the greatest for individuals over 60. Consistent over-estimation of individuals younger than 30 and under-estimation of individuals over 40 years old occurred. Individuals in their 30s showed a mixed pattern of under- and over-estimation among observers. These results support the use of the TA method by researchers of varying experience levels. Further, they validate its use on forensic cases, given the low error overall. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Estimating evolutionary rates using time-structured data: a general comparison of phylogenetic methods.

PubMed

Duchêne, Sebastián; Geoghegan, Jemma L; Holmes, Edward C; Ho, Simon Y W

2016-11-15

In rapidly evolving pathogens, including viruses and some bacteria, genetic change can accumulate over short time-frames. Accordingly, their sampling times can be used to calibrate molecular clocks, allowing estimation of evolutionary rates. Methods for estimating rates from time-structured data vary in how they treat phylogenetic uncertainty and rate variation among lineages. We compiled 81 virus data sets and estimated nucleotide substitution rates using root-to-tip regression, least-squares dating and Bayesian inference. Although estimates from these three methods were often congruent, this largely relied on the choice of clock model. In particular, relaxed-clock models tended to produce higher rate estimates than methods that assume constant rates. Discrepancies in rate estimates were also associated with high among-lineage rate variation, and phylogenetic and temporal clustering. These results provide insights into the factors that affect the reliability of rate estimates from time-structured sequence data, emphasizing the importance of clock-model testing. sduchene@unimelb.edu.au or garzonsebastian@hotmail.comSupplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Calculating system reliability with SRFYDO

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Morzinski, Jerome; Anderson - Cook, Christine M; Klamann, Richard M

2010-01-01

SRFYDO is a process for estimating reliability of complex systems. Using information from all applicable sources, including full-system (flight) data, component test data, and expert (engineering) judgment, SRFYDO produces reliability estimates and predictions. It is appropriate for series systems with possibly several versions of the system which share some common components. It models reliability as a function of age and up to 2 other lifecycle (usage) covariates. Initial output from its Exploratory Data Analysis mode consists of plots and numerical summaries so that the user can check data entry and model assumptions, and help determine a final form for themore » system model. The System Reliability mode runs a complete reliability calculation using Bayesian methodology. This mode produces results that estimate reliability at the component, sub-system, and system level. The results include estimates of uncertainty, and can predict reliability at some not-too-distant time in the future. This paper presents an overview of the underlying statistical model for the analysis, discusses model assumptions, and demonstrates usage of SRFYDO.« less

A time-frequency analysis method to obtain stable estimates of magnetotelluric response function based on Hilbert-Huang transform

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cai, Jianhua

2017-05-01

The time-frequency analysis method represents signal as a function of time and frequency, and it is considered a powerful tool for handling arbitrary non-stationary time series by using instantaneous frequency and instantaneous amplitude. It also provides a possible alternative to the analysis of the non-stationary magnetotelluric (MT) signal. Based on the Hilbert-Huang transform (HHT), a time-frequency analysis method is proposed to obtain stable estimates of the magnetotelluric response function. In contrast to conventional methods, the response function estimation is performed in the time-frequency domain using instantaneous spectra rather than in the frequency domain, which allows for imaging the response parameter content as a function of time and frequency. The theory of the method is presented and the mathematical model and calculation procedure, which are used to estimate response function based on HHT time-frequency spectrum, are discussed. To evaluate the results, response function estimates are compared with estimates from a standard MT data processing method based on the Fourier transform. All results show that apparent resistivities and phases, which are calculated from the HHT time-frequency method, are generally more stable and reliable than those determined from the simple Fourier analysis. The proposed method overcomes the drawbacks of the traditional Fourier methods, and the resulting parameter minimises the estimation bias caused by the non-stationary characteristics of the MT data.

Estimating liver cancer deaths in Thailand based on verbal autopsy study.

PubMed

Waeto, Salwa; Pipatjaturon, Nattakit; Tongkumchum, Phattrawan; Choonpradub, Chamnein; Saelim, Rattikan; Makaje, Nifatamah

2014-01-01

Liver cancer mortality is high in Thailand but utility of related vital statistics is limited due to national vital registration (VR) data being under reported for specific causes of deaths. Accurate methodologies and reliable supplementary data are needed to provide worthy national vital statistics. This study aimed to model liver cancer deaths based on verbal autopsy (VA) study in 2005 to provide more accurate estimates of liver cancer deaths than those reported. The results were used to estimate number of liver cancer deaths during 2000-2009. A verbal autopsy (VA) was carried out in 2005 based on a sample of 9,644 deaths from nine provinces and it provided reliable information on causes of deaths by gender, age group, location of deaths in or outside hospital, and causes of deaths of the VR database. Logistic regression was used to model liver cancer deaths and other variables. The estimated probabilities from the model were applied to liver cancer deaths in the VR database, 2000-2009. Thus, the more accurately VA-estimated numbers of liver cancer deaths were obtained. The model fits the data quite well with sensitivity 0.64. The confidence intervals from statistical model provide the estimates and their precisions. The VA-estimated numbers of liver cancer deaths were higher than the corresponding VR database with inflation factors 1.56 for males and 1.64 for females. The statistical methods used in this study can be applied to available mortality data in developing countries where their national vital registration data are of low quality and supplementary reliable data are available.

Measurement methods to assess diastasis of the rectus abdominis muscle (DRAM): A systematic review of their measurement properties and meta-analytic reliability generalisation.

PubMed

van de Water, A T M; Benjamin, D R

2016-02-01

Systematic literature review. Diastasis of the rectus abdominis muscle (DRAM) has been linked with low back pain, abdominal and pelvic dysfunction. Measurement is used to either screen or to monitor DRAM width. Determining which methods are suitable for screening and monitoring DRAM is of clinical value. To identify the best methods to screen for DRAM presence and monitor DRAM width. AMED, Embase, Medline, PubMed and CINAHL databases were searched for measurement property studies of DRAM measurement methods. Population characteristics, measurement methods/procedures and measurement information were extracted from included studies. Quality of all studies was evaluated using 'quality rating criteria'. When possible, reliability generalisation was conducted to provide combined reliability estimations. Thirteen studies evaluated measurement properties of the 'finger width'-method, tape measure, calipers, ultrasound, CT and MRI. Ultrasound was most evaluated. Methodological quality of these studies varied widely. Pearson's correlations of r = 0.66-0.79 were found between calipers and ultrasound measurements. Calipers and ultrasound had Intraclass Correlation Coefficients (ICC) of 0.78-0.97 for test-retest, inter- and intra-rater reliability. The 'finger width'-method had weighted Kappa's of 0.73-0.77 for test-retest reliability, but moderate agreement (63%; weighted Kappa = 0.53) between raters. Comparing calipers and ultrasound, low measurement error was found (above the umbilicus), and the methods had good agreement (83%; weighted Kappa = 0.66) for discriminative purposes. The available information support ultrasound and calipers as adequate methods to assess DRAM. For other methods limited measurement information of low to moderate quality is available and further evaluation of their measurement properties is required. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mathematical Simulation of Perturbations of Attack Angle of Asymmetric Nanosatellite Passing through Resonance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lyubimov, V. V.; Kurkina, E. V.

2018-05-01

The authors consider the problem of a dynamic system passing through a low-order resonance, describing an uncontrolled atmospheric descent of an asymmetric nanosatellite in the Earth's atmosphere. The authors perform mathematical and numerical modeling of the motion of the nanosatellite with a small mass-aerodynamic asymmetry relative to the center of mass. The aim of the study is to obtain new reliable approximate analytical estimates of perturbations of the angle of attack of a nanosatellite passing through resonance at angles of attack of not more than 0.5π. By using the stationary phase method, the authors were able to investigate a discontinuous perturbation in the angle of attack of a nanosatellite passing through a resonance with two different nanosatellite designs. Comparison of the results of the numerical modeling and new approximate analytical estimates of the perturbation of the angle of attack confirms the reliability of the said estimates.

Computer-aided analysis with Image J for quantitatively assessing psoriatic lesion area.

PubMed

Sun, Z; Wang, Y; Ji, S; Wang, K; Zhao, Y

2015-11-01

Body surface area is important in determining the severity of psoriasis. However, objective, reliable, and practical method is still in need for this purpose. We performed a computer image analysis (CIA) of psoriatic area using the image J freeware to determine whether this method could be used for objective evaluation of psoriatic area. Fifteen psoriasis patients were randomized to be treated with adalimumab or placebo in a clinical trial. At each visit, the psoriasis area of each body site was estimated by two physicians (E-method), and standard photographs were taken. The psoriasis area in the pictures was assessed with CIA using semi-automatic threshold selection (T-method), or manual selection (M-method, gold standard). The results assessed by the three methods were analyzed with reliability and affecting factors evaluated. Both T- and E-method correlated strongly with M-method, and T-method had a slightly stronger correlation with M-method. Both T- and E-methods had a good consistency between the evaluators. All the three methods were able to detect the change in the psoriatic area after treatment, while the E-method tends to overestimate. The CIA with image J freeware is reliable and practicable in quantitatively assessing the lesional of psoriasis area. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Reliability of third molar development for age estimation in Gujarati population: A comparative study

PubMed Central

Gandhi, Neha; Jain, Sandeep; Kumar, Manish; Rupakar, Pratik; Choyal, Kanaram; Prajapati, Seema

2015-01-01

Background: Age assessment may be a crucial step in postmortem profiling leading to confirmative identification. In children, Demirjian's method based on eight developmental stages was developed to determine maturity scores as a function of age and polynomial functions to determine age as a function of score. Aim: Of this study was to evaluate the reliability of age estimation using Demirjian's eight teeth method following the French maturity scores and Indian-specific formula from developmental stages of third molar with the help of orthopantomograms using the Demirjian method. Materials and Methods: Dental panoramic tomograms from 30 subjects each of known chronological age and sex were collected and were evaluated according to Demirjian's criteria. Age calculations were performed using Demirjian's formula and Indian formula. Statistical analysis used was Chi-square test and ANOVA test and the P values obtained were statistically significant. Results: There was an average underestimation of age with both Indian and Demirjian's formulas. The mean absolute error was lower using Indian formula hence it can be applied for age estimation in present Gujarati population. Also, females were ahead of achieving dental maturity than males thus completion of dental development is attained earlier in females. Conclusion: Greater accuracy can be obtained if population-specific formulas considering the ethnic and environmental variation are derived performing the regression analysis. PMID:26005298

Structure-activity relationships to estimate the effective Henry's law coefficients of organics of atmospheric interest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raventos-Duran, Teresa; Valorso, Richard; Aumont, Bernard; Camredon, Marie

2010-05-01

The oxidation of volatile organic compounds emitted in the atmosphere involves complex reaction mechanisms which leads to the formation of oxygenated organic intermediates, usually denoted as secondary organics. The fate of these secondary organics remains poorly quantified due to a lack of information about their speciation, distribution and evolution in the gas and condensed phases. A significant fraction of secondary organics may dissolve into the tropospheric aqueous phase owing to the presence of polar moieties generated during the oxidation processes. The partitioning of organics between the gas and the aqueous atmospheric phases is usually described in the basis of Henry's law. Atmospheric models require a knowledge of the Henry's law coefficient (H) for every water soluble organic species described in the chemical mechanism. Methods that can predict reliable H values for the vast number of organic compounds are therefore required. We have compiled a data set of experimental Henry's law constants for compounds bearing functional groups of atmospheric relevance. This data set was then used to develop GROMHE, a structure activity relationship to predict H values based on a group contribution approach. We assessed its performance with two other available estimation methods. The results show that for all these methods the reliability of the estimates decreases with increasing solubility. We discuss differences between methods and found that GROMHE had greater prediction ability.

Gene expression information improves reliability of receptor status in breast cancer patients

PubMed Central

Kenn, Michael; Schlangen, Karin; Castillo-Tong, Dan Cacsire; Singer, Christian F.; Cibena, Michael; Koelbl, Heinz; Schreiner, Wolfgang

2017-01-01

Immunohistochemical (IHC) determination of receptor status in breast cancer patients is frequently inaccurate. Since it directs the choice of systemic therapy, it is essential to increase its reliability. We increase the validity of IHC receptor expression by additionally considering gene expression (GE) measurements. Crisp therapeutic decisions are based on IHC estimates, even if they are borderline reliable. We further improve decision quality by a responsibility function, defining a critical domain for gene expression. Refined normalization is devised to file any newly diagnosed patient into existing data bases. Our approach renders receptor estimates more reliable by identifying patients with questionable receptor status. The approach is also more efficient since the rate of conclusive samples is increased. We have curated and evaluated gene expression data, together with clinical information, from 2880 breast cancer patients. Combining IHC with gene expression information yields a method more reliable and also more efficient as compared to common practice up to now. Several types of possibly suboptimal treatment allocations, based on IHC receptor status alone, are enumerated. A ‘therapy allocation check’ identifies patients possibly miss-classified. Estrogen: false negative 8%, false positive 6%. Progesterone: false negative 14%, false positive 11%. HER2: false negative 2%, false positive 50%. Possible implications are discussed. We propose an ‘expression look-up-plot’, allowing for a significant potential to improve the quality of precision medicine. Methods are developed and exemplified here for breast cancer patients, but they may readily be transferred to diagnostic data relevant for therapeutic decisions in other fields of oncology. PMID:29100391

Methods for Multiloop Identification of Visual and Neuromuscular Pilot Responses.

PubMed

Olivari, Mario; Nieuwenhuizen, Frank M; Venrooij, Joost; Bülthoff, Heinrich H; Pollini, Lorenzo

2015-12-01

In this paper, identification methods are proposed to estimate the neuromuscular and visual responses of a multiloop pilot model. A conventional and widely used technique for simultaneous identification of the neuromuscular and visual systems makes use of cross-spectral density estimates. This paper shows that this technique requires a specific noninterference hypothesis, often implicitly assumed, that may be difficult to meet during actual experimental designs. A mathematical justification of the necessity of the noninterference hypothesis is given. Furthermore, two methods are proposed that do not have the same limitations. The first method is based on autoregressive models with exogenous inputs, whereas the second one combines cross-spectral estimators with interpolation in the frequency domain. The two identification methods are validated by offline simulations and contrasted to the classic method. The results reveal that the classic method fails when the noninterference hypothesis is not fulfilled; on the contrary, the two proposed techniques give reliable estimates. Finally, the three identification methods are applied to experimental data from a closed-loop control task with pilots. The two proposed techniques give comparable estimates, different from those obtained by the classic method. The differences match those found with the simulations. Thus, the two identification methods provide a good alternative to the classic method and make it possible to simultaneously estimate human's neuromuscular and visual responses in cases where the classic method fails.

Projecting the potential evapotranspiration by coupling different formulations and input data reliabilities: The possible uncertainty source for climate change impacts on hydrological regime

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Weiguang; Li, Changni; Xing, Wanqiu; Fu, Jianyu

2017-12-01

Representing atmospheric evaporating capability for a hypothetical reference surface, potential evapotranspiration (PET) determines the upper limit of actual evapotranspiration and is an important input to hydrological models. Due that present climate models do not give direct estimates of PET when simulating the hydrological response to future climate change, the PET must be estimated first and is subject to the uncertainty on account of many existing formulae and different input data reliabilities. Using four different PET estimation approaches, i.e., the more physically Penman (PN) equation with less reliable input variables, more empirical radiation-based Priestley-Taylor (PT) equation with relatively dependable downscaled data, the most simply temperature-based Hamon (HM) equation with the most reliable downscaled variable, and downscaling PET directly by the statistical downscaling model, this paper investigated the differences of runoff projection caused by the alternative PET methods by a well calibrated abcd monthly hydrological model. Three catchments, i.e., the Luanhe River Basin, the Source Region of the Yellow River and the Ganjiang River Basin, representing a large climatic diversity were chosen as examples to illustrate this issue. The results indicated that although similar monthly patterns of PET over the period 2021-2050 for each catchment were provided by the four methods, the magnitudes of PET were still slightly different, especially for spring and summer months in the Luanhe River Basin and the Source Region of the Yellow River with relatively dry climate feature. The apparent discrepancy in magnitude of change in future runoff and even the diverse change direction for summer months in the Luanhe River Basin and spring months in the Source Region of the Yellow River indicated that the PET method related uncertainty occurred, especially in the Luanhe River Basin and the Source Region of the Yellow River with smaller aridity index. Moreover, the possible reason of discrepancies in uncertainty between three catchments was quantitatively discussed by the contribution analysis based on climatic elasticity method. This study can provide beneficial reference to comprehensively understand the impacts of climate change on hydrological regime and thus improve the regional strategy for future water resource management.

Probabilistic fracture finite elements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, W. K.; Belytschko, T.; Lua, Y. J.

1991-01-01

The Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics (PFM) is a promising method for estimating the fatigue life and inspection cycles for mechanical and structural components. The Probability Finite Element Method (PFEM), which is based on second moment analysis, has proved to be a promising, practical approach to handle problems with uncertainties. As the PFEM provides a powerful computational tool to determine first and second moment of random parameters, the second moment reliability method can be easily combined with PFEM to obtain measures of the reliability of the structural system. The method is also being applied to fatigue crack growth. Uncertainties in the material properties of advanced materials such as polycrystalline alloys, ceramics, and composites are commonly observed from experimental tests. This is mainly attributed to intrinsic microcracks, which are randomly distributed as a result of the applied load and the residual stress.

Probabilistic fracture finite elements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, W. K.; Belytschko, T.; Lua, Y. J.

1991-05-01

The Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics (PFM) is a promising method for estimating the fatigue life and inspection cycles for mechanical and structural components. The Probability Finite Element Method (PFEM), which is based on second moment analysis, has proved to be a promising, practical approach to handle problems with uncertainties. As the PFEM provides a powerful computational tool to determine first and second moment of random parameters, the second moment reliability method can be easily combined with PFEM to obtain measures of the reliability of the structural system. The method is also being applied to fatigue crack growth. Uncertainties in the material properties of advanced materials such as polycrystalline alloys, ceramics, and composites are commonly observed from experimental tests. This is mainly attributed to intrinsic microcracks, which are randomly distributed as a result of the applied load and the residual stress.

The Reliability Estimation for the Open Function of Cabin Door Affected by the Imprecise Judgment Corresponding to Distribution Hypothesis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Z. P.; Yue, Z. F.; Liu, W.

2018-05-01

With the development of artificial intelligence, more and more reliability experts have noticed the roles of subjective information in the reliability design of complex system. Therefore, based on the certain numbers of experiment data and expert judgments, we have divided the reliability estimation based on distribution hypothesis into cognition process and reliability calculation. Consequently, for an illustration of this modification, we have taken the information fusion based on intuitional fuzzy belief functions as the diagnosis model of cognition process, and finished the reliability estimation for the open function of cabin door affected by the imprecise judgment corresponding to distribution hypothesis.

Reliability of third molar development for age estimation in Gujarati population: A comparative study.

PubMed

Gandhi, Neha; Jain, Sandeep; Kumar, Manish; Rupakar, Pratik; Choyal, Kanaram; Prajapati, Seema

2015-01-01

Age assessment may be a crucial step in postmortem profiling leading to confirmative identification. In children, Demirjian's method based on eight developmental stages was developed to determine maturity scores as a function of age and polynomial functions to determine age as a function of score. Of this study was to evaluate the reliability of age estimation using Demirjian's eight teeth method following the French maturity scores and Indian-specific formula from developmental stages of third molar with the help of orthopantomograms using the Demirjian method. Dental panoramic tomograms from 30 subjects each of known chronological age and sex were collected and were evaluated according to Demirjian's criteria. Age calculations were performed using Demirjian's formula and Indian formula. Statistical analysis used was Chi-square test and ANOVA test and the P values obtained were statistically significant. There was an average underestimation of age with both Indian and Demirjian's formulas. The mean absolute error was lower using Indian formula hence it can be applied for age estimation in present Gujarati population. Also, females were ahead of achieving dental maturity than males thus completion of dental development is attained earlier in females. Greater accuracy can be obtained if population-specific formulas considering the ethnic and environmental variation are derived performing the regression analysis.

Comparison of BOD results obtained by dilution and manometric methods in sanitary landfill leachates.

PubMed

Ceçen, F; Yangin, C

2000-12-01

This study examined the determination of BOD in landfill leachates by dilution (D-method) and manometric methods (M-method). The differences in results were discussed based on statistical tests. The effects of sample dilution, seeding, chloride and total Kjeldahl nitrogen (TKN) level were examined. The M-method was found to be more sensitive to increases in chloride and TKN concentrations. However, in the M-method the positive interference of nitrogenous BOD (NBOD) to carbonaceous BOD (CBOD) was more successfully prevented. The BOD rate constant k and the ultimate BOD (BODu) were estimated by non-linear regression. With the M-method these parameters could be more reliably estimated than the D-method. Suggestions were made for BOD analyses in landfill leachates in future studies.

Are Validity and Reliability "Relevant" in Qualitative Evaluation Research?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Goodwin, Laura D.; Goodwin, William L.

1984-01-01

The views of prominant qualitative methodologists on the appropriateness of validity and reliability estimation for the measurement strategies employed in qualitative evaluations are summarized. A case is made for the relevance of validity and reliability estimation. Definitions of validity and reliability for qualitative measurement are presented…

GPS/DR Error Estimation for Autonomous Vehicle Localization.

PubMed

Lee, Byung-Hyun; Song, Jong-Hwa; Im, Jun-Hyuck; Im, Sung-Hyuck; Heo, Moon-Beom; Jee, Gyu-In

2015-08-21

Autonomous vehicles require highly reliable navigation capabilities. For example, a lane-following method cannot be applied in an intersection without lanes, and since typical lane detection is performed using a straight-line model, errors can occur when the lateral distance is estimated in curved sections due to a model mismatch. Therefore, this paper proposes a localization method that uses GPS/DR error estimation based on a lane detection method with curved lane models, stop line detection, and curve matching in order to improve the performance during waypoint following procedures. The advantage of using the proposed method is that position information can be provided for autonomous driving through intersections, in sections with sharp curves, and in curved sections following a straight section. The proposed method was applied in autonomous vehicles at an experimental site to evaluate its performance, and the results indicate that the positioning achieved accuracy at the sub-meter level.

An assessment of the Nguyen and Pinder method for slug test analysis. [In situ estimates of ground water contamination

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Butler, J.J. Jr.; Hyder, Z.

The Nguyen and Pinder method is one of four techniques commonly used for analysis of response data from slug tests. Limited field research has raised questions about the reliability of the parameter estimates obtained with this method. A theoretical evaluation of this technique reveals that errors were made in the derivation of the analytical solution upon which the technique is based. Simulation and field examples show that the errors result in parameter estimates that can differ from actual values by orders of magnitude. These findings indicate that the Nguyen and Pinder method should no longer be a tool in themore » repertoire of the field hydrogeologist. If data from a slug test performed in a partially penetrating well in a confined aquifer need to be analyzed, recent work has shown that the Hvorslev method is the best alternative among the commonly used techniques.« less

GPS/DR Error Estimation for Autonomous Vehicle Localization

PubMed Central

Lee, Byung-Hyun; Song, Jong-Hwa; Im, Jun-Hyuck; Im, Sung-Hyuck; Heo, Moon-Beom; Jee, Gyu-In

2015-01-01

Autonomous vehicles require highly reliable navigation capabilities. For example, a lane-following method cannot be applied in an intersection without lanes, and since typical lane detection is performed using a straight-line model, errors can occur when the lateral distance is estimated in curved sections due to a model mismatch. Therefore, this paper proposes a localization method that uses GPS/DR error estimation based on a lane detection method with curved lane models, stop line detection, and curve matching in order to improve the performance during waypoint following procedures. The advantage of using the proposed method is that position information can be provided for autonomous driving through intersections, in sections with sharp curves, and in curved sections following a straight section. The proposed method was applied in autonomous vehicles at an experimental site to evaluate its performance, and the results indicate that the positioning achieved accuracy at the sub-meter level. PMID:26307997

Complex method to calculate objective assessments of information systems protection to improve expert assessments reliability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdenov, A. Zh; Trushin, V. A.; Abdenova, G. A.

2018-01-01

The paper considers the questions of filling the relevant SIEM nodes based on calculations of objective assessments in order to improve the reliability of subjective expert assessments. The proposed methodology is necessary for the most accurate security risk assessment of information systems. This technique is also intended for the purpose of establishing real-time operational information protection in the enterprise information systems. Risk calculations are based on objective estimates of the adverse events implementation probabilities, predictions of the damage magnitude from information security violations. Calculations of objective assessments are necessary to increase the reliability of the proposed expert assessments.

A General Approach for Estimating Scale Score Reliability for Panel Survey Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Biemer, Paul P.; Christ, Sharon L.; Wiesen, Christopher A.

2009-01-01

Scale score measures are ubiquitous in the psychological literature and can be used as both dependent and independent variables in data analysis. Poor reliability of scale score measures leads to inflated standard errors and/or biased estimates, particularly in multivariate analysis. Reliability estimation is usually an integral step to assess…

Bi-Factor Multidimensional Item Response Theory Modeling for Subscores Estimation, Reliability, and Classification

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Md Desa, Zairul Nor Deana

2012-01-01

In recent years, there has been increasing interest in estimating and improving subscore reliability. In this study, the multidimensional item response theory (MIRT) and the bi-factor model were combined to estimate subscores, to obtain subscores reliability, and subscores classification. Both the compensatory and partially compensatory MIRT…

Reliability and precision of pellet-group counts for estimating landscape-level deer density

Treesearch

David S. deCalesta

2013-01-01

This study provides hitherto unavailable methodology for reliably and precisely estimating deer density within forested landscapes, enabling quantitative rather than qualitative deer management. Reliability and precision of the deer pellet-group technique were evaluated in 1 small and 2 large forested landscapes. Density estimates, adjusted to reflect deer harvest and...

Improved dynamical scaling analysis using the kernel method for nonequilibrium relaxation.

PubMed

Echinaka, Yuki; Ozeki, Yukiyasu

2016-10-01

The dynamical scaling analysis for the Kosterlitz-Thouless transition in the nonequilibrium relaxation method is improved by the use of Bayesian statistics and the kernel method. This allows data to be fitted to a scaling function without using any parametric model function, which makes the results more reliable and reproducible and enables automatic and faster parameter estimation. Applying this method, the bootstrap method is introduced and a numerical discrimination for the transition type is proposed.

Optimal Bi-Objective Redundancy Allocation for Systems Reliability and Risk Management.

PubMed

Govindan, Kannan; Jafarian, Ahmad; Azbari, Mostafa E; Choi, Tsan-Ming

2016-08-01

In the big data era, systems reliability is critical to effective systems risk management. In this paper, a novel multiobjective approach, with hybridization of a known algorithm called NSGA-II and an adaptive population-based simulated annealing (APBSA) method is developed to solve the systems reliability optimization problems. In the first step, to create a good algorithm, we use a coevolutionary strategy. Since the proposed algorithm is very sensitive to parameter values, the response surface method is employed to estimate the appropriate parameters of the algorithm. Moreover, to examine the performance of our proposed approach, several test problems are generated, and the proposed hybrid algorithm and other commonly known approaches (i.e., MOGA, NRGA, and NSGA-II) are compared with respect to four performance measures: 1) mean ideal distance; 2) diversification metric; 3) percentage of domination; and 4) data envelopment analysis. The computational studies have shown that the proposed algorithm is an effective approach for systems reliability and risk management.

Reliability-based design optimization of reinforced concrete structures including soil-structure interaction using a discrete gravitational search algorithm and a proposed metamodel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khatibinia, M.; Salajegheh, E.; Salajegheh, J.; Fadaee, M. J.

2013-10-01

A new discrete gravitational search algorithm (DGSA) and a metamodelling framework are introduced for reliability-based design optimization (RBDO) of reinforced concrete structures. The RBDO of structures with soil-structure interaction (SSI) effects is investigated in accordance with performance-based design. The proposed DGSA is based on the standard gravitational search algorithm (GSA) to optimize the structural cost under deterministic and probabilistic constraints. The Monte-Carlo simulation (MCS) method is considered as the most reliable method for estimating the probabilities of reliability. In order to reduce the computational time of MCS, the proposed metamodelling framework is employed to predict the responses of the SSI system in the RBDO procedure. The metamodel consists of a weighted least squares support vector machine (WLS-SVM) and a wavelet kernel function, which is called WWLS-SVM. Numerical results demonstrate the efficiency and computational advantages of DGSA and the proposed metamodel for RBDO of reinforced concrete structures.

Analysis of methods to estimate spring flows in a karst aquifer

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sepulveda, N.

2009-01-01

Hydraulically and statistically based methods were analyzed to identify the most reliable method to predict spring flows in a karst aquifer. Measured water levels at nearby observation wells, measured spring pool altitudes, and the distance between observation wells and the spring pool were the parameters used to match measured spring flows. Measured spring flows at six Upper Floridan aquifer springs in central Florida were used to assess the reliability of these methods to predict spring flows. Hydraulically based methods involved the application of the Theis, Hantush-Jacob, and Darcy-Weisbach equations, whereas the statistically based methods were the multiple linear regressions and the technology of artificial neural networks (ANNs). Root mean square errors between measured and predicted spring flows using the Darcy-Weisbach method ranged between 5% and 15% of the measured flows, lower than the 7% to 27% range for the Theis or Hantush-Jacob methods. Flows at all springs were estimated to be turbulent based on the Reynolds number derived from the Darcy-Weisbach equation for conduit flow. The multiple linear regression and the Darcy-Weisbach methods had similar spring flow prediction capabilities. The ANNs provided the lowest residuals between measured and predicted spring flows, ranging from 1.6% to 5.3% of the measured flows. The model prediction efficiency criteria also indicated that the ANNs were the most accurate method predicting spring flows in a karst aquifer. ?? 2008 National Ground Water Association.

Analysis of methods to estimate spring flows in a karst aquifer.

PubMed

Sepúlveda, Nicasio

2009-01-01

Hydraulically and statistically based methods were analyzed to identify the most reliable method to predict spring flows in a karst aquifer. Measured water levels at nearby observation wells, measured spring pool altitudes, and the distance between observation wells and the spring pool were the parameters used to match measured spring flows. Measured spring flows at six Upper Floridan aquifer springs in central Florida were used to assess the reliability of these methods to predict spring flows. Hydraulically based methods involved the application of the Theis, Hantush-Jacob, and Darcy-Weisbach equations, whereas the statistically based methods were the multiple linear regressions and the technology of artificial neural networks (ANNs). Root mean square errors between measured and predicted spring flows using the Darcy-Weisbach method ranged between 5% and 15% of the measured flows, lower than the 7% to 27% range for the Theis or Hantush-Jacob methods. Flows at all springs were estimated to be turbulent based on the Reynolds number derived from the Darcy-Weisbach equation for conduit flow. The multiple linear regression and the Darcy-Weisbach methods had similar spring flow prediction capabilities. The ANNs provided the lowest residuals between measured and predicted spring flows, ranging from 1.6% to 5.3% of the measured flows. The model prediction efficiency criteria also indicated that the ANNs were the most accurate method predicting spring flows in a karst aquifer.

Small Area Variance Estimation for the Siuslaw NF in Oregon and Some Results

Treesearch

S. Lin; D. Boes; H.T. Schreuder

2006-01-01

The results of a small area prediction study for the Siuslaw National Forest in Oregon are presented. Predictions were made for total basal area, number of trees and mortality per ha on a 0.85 mile grid using data on a 1.7 mile grid and additional ancillary information from TM. A reliable method of estimating prediction errors for individual plot predictions called the...

A method for analyzing clustered interval-censored data based on Cox's model.

PubMed

Kor, Chew-Teng; Cheng, Kuang-Fu; Chen, Yi-Hau

2013-02-28

Methods for analyzing interval-censored data are well established. Unfortunately, these methods are inappropriate for the studies with correlated data. In this paper, we focus on developing a method for analyzing clustered interval-censored data. Our method is based on Cox's proportional hazard model with piecewise-constant baseline hazard function. The correlation structure of the data can be modeled by using Clayton's copula or independence model with proper adjustment in the covariance estimation. We establish estimating equations for the regression parameters and baseline hazards (and a parameter in copula) simultaneously. Simulation results confirm that the point estimators follow a multivariate normal distribution, and our proposed variance estimations are reliable. In particular, we found that the approach with independence model worked well even when the true correlation model was derived from Clayton's copula. We applied our method to a family-based cohort study of pandemic H1N1 influenza in Taiwan during 2009-2010. Using the proposed method, we investigate the impact of vaccination and family contacts on the incidence of pH1N1 influenza. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

An evolutionary firefly algorithm for the estimation of nonlinear biological model parameters.

PubMed

Abdullah, Afnizanfaizal; Deris, Safaai; Anwar, Sohail; Arjunan, Satya N V

2013-01-01

The development of accurate computational models of biological processes is fundamental to computational systems biology. These models are usually represented by mathematical expressions that rely heavily on the system parameters. The measurement of these parameters is often difficult. Therefore, they are commonly estimated by fitting the predicted model to the experimental data using optimization methods. The complexity and nonlinearity of the biological processes pose a significant challenge, however, to the development of accurate and fast optimization methods. We introduce a new hybrid optimization method incorporating the Firefly Algorithm and the evolutionary operation of the Differential Evolution method. The proposed method improves solutions by neighbourhood search using evolutionary procedures. Testing our method on models for the arginine catabolism and the negative feedback loop of the p53 signalling pathway, we found that it estimated the parameters with high accuracy and within a reasonable computation time compared to well-known approaches, including Particle Swarm Optimization, Nelder-Mead, and Firefly Algorithm. We have also verified the reliability of the parameters estimated by the method using an a posteriori practical identifiability test.

An Evolutionary Firefly Algorithm for the Estimation of Nonlinear Biological Model Parameters

PubMed Central

Abdullah, Afnizanfaizal; Deris, Safaai; Anwar, Sohail; Arjunan, Satya N. V.

2013-01-01

The development of accurate computational models of biological processes is fundamental to computational systems biology. These models are usually represented by mathematical expressions that rely heavily on the system parameters. The measurement of these parameters is often difficult. Therefore, they are commonly estimated by fitting the predicted model to the experimental data using optimization methods. The complexity and nonlinearity of the biological processes pose a significant challenge, however, to the development of accurate and fast optimization methods. We introduce a new hybrid optimization method incorporating the Firefly Algorithm and the evolutionary operation of the Differential Evolution method. The proposed method improves solutions by neighbourhood search using evolutionary procedures. Testing our method on models for the arginine catabolism and the negative feedback loop of the p53 signalling pathway, we found that it estimated the parameters with high accuracy and within a reasonable computation time compared to well-known approaches, including Particle Swarm Optimization, Nelder-Mead, and Firefly Algorithm. We have also verified the reliability of the parameters estimated by the method using an a posteriori practical identifiability test. PMID:23469172

Fusion of electromagnetic trackers to improve needle deflection estimation: simulation study.

PubMed

Sadjadi, Hossein; Hashtrudi-Zaad, Keyvan; Fichtinger, Gabor

2013-10-01

We present a needle deflection estimation method to anticipate needle bending during insertion into deformable tissue. Using limited additional sensory information, our approach reduces the estimation error caused by uncertainties inherent in the conventional needle deflection estimation methods. We use Kalman filters to combine a kinematic needle deflection model with the position measurements of the base and the tip of the needle taken by electromagnetic (EM) trackers. One EM tracker is installed on the needle base and estimates the needle tip position indirectly using the kinematic needle deflection model. Another EM tracker is installed on the needle tip and estimates the needle tip position through direct, but noisy measurements. Kalman filters are then employed to fuse these two estimates in real time and provide a reliable estimate of the needle tip position, with reduced variance in the estimation error. We implemented this method to compensate for needle deflection during simulated needle insertions and performed sensitivity analysis for various conditions. At an insertion depth of 150 mm, we observed needle tip estimation error reductions in the range of 28% (from 1.8 to 1.3 mm) to 74% (from 4.8 to 1.2 mm), which demonstrates the effectiveness of our method, offering a clinically practical solution.

Stability-Aware Geographic Routing in Energy Harvesting Wireless Sensor Networks

PubMed Central

Hieu, Tran Dinh; Dung, Le The; Kim, Byung-Seo

2016-01-01

A new generation of wireless sensor networks that harvest energy from environmental sources such as solar, vibration, and thermoelectric to power sensor nodes is emerging to solve the problem of energy limitation. Based on the photo-voltaic model, this research proposes a stability-aware geographic routing for reliable data transmissions in energy-harvesting wireless sensor networks (EH-WSNs) to provide a reliable routes selection method and potentially achieve an unlimited network lifetime. Specifically, the influences of link quality, represented by the estimated packet reception rate, on network performance is investigated. Simulation results show that the proposed method outperforms an energy-harvesting-aware method in terms of energy consumption, the average number of hops, and the packet delivery ratio. PMID:27187414

The protonation of N2O reexamined - A case study on the reliability of various electron correlation methods for minima and transition states

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Martin, J. M. L.; Lee, Timothy J.

1993-01-01

The protonation of N2O and the intramolecular proton transfer in N2OH(+) are studied using various basis sets and a variety of methods, including second-order many-body perturbation theory (MP2), singles and doubles coupled cluster (CCSD), the augmented coupled cluster (CCSD/T/), and complete active space self-consistent field (CASSCF) methods. For geometries, MP2 leads to serious errors even for HNNO(+); for the transition state, only CCSD/T/ produces a reliable geometry due to serious nondynamical correlation effects. The proton affinity at 298.15 K is estimated at 137.6 kcal/mol, in close agreement with recent experimental determinations of 137.3 +/- 1 kcal/mol.

An hp-adaptivity and error estimation for hyperbolic conservation laws

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bey, Kim S.

1995-01-01

This paper presents an hp-adaptive discontinuous Galerkin method for linear hyperbolic conservation laws. A priori and a posteriori error estimates are derived in mesh-dependent norms which reflect the dependence of the approximate solution on the element size (h) and the degree (p) of the local polynomial approximation. The a posteriori error estimate, based on the element residual method, provides bounds on the actual global error in the approximate solution. The adaptive strategy is designed to deliver an approximate solution with the specified level of error in three steps. The a posteriori estimate is used to assess the accuracy of a given approximate solution and the a priori estimate is used to predict the mesh refinements and polynomial enrichment needed to deliver the desired solution. Numerical examples demonstrate the reliability of the a posteriori error estimates and the effectiveness of the hp-adaptive strategy.

Cortical Thickness Estimations of FreeSurfer and the CAT12 Toolbox in Patients with Alzheimer's Disease and Healthy Controls.

PubMed

Seiger, Rene; Ganger, Sebastian; Kranz, Georg S; Hahn, Andreas; Lanzenberger, Rupert

2018-05-15

Automated cortical thickness (CT) measurements are often used to assess gray matter changes in the healthy and diseased human brain. The FreeSurfer software is frequently applied for this type of analysis. The computational anatomy toolbox (CAT12) for SPM, which offers a fast and easy-to-use alternative approach, was recently made available. In this study, we compared region of interest (ROI)-wise CT estimations of the surface-based FreeSurfer 6 (FS6) software and the volume-based CAT12 toolbox for SPM using 44 elderly healthy female control subjects (HC). In addition, these 44 HCs from the cross-sectional analysis and 34 age- and sex-matched patients with Alzheimer's disease (AD) were used to assess the potential of detecting group differences for each method. Finally, a test-retest analysis was conducted using 19 HC subjects. All data were taken from the OASIS database and MRI scans were recorded at 1.5 Tesla. A strong correlation was observed between both methods in terms of ROI mean CT estimates (R 2 = .83). However, CAT12 delivered significantly higher CT estimations in 32 of the 34 ROIs, indicating a systematic difference between both approaches. Furthermore, both methods were able to reliably detect atrophic brain areas in AD subjects, with the highest decreases in temporal areas. Finally, FS6 as well as CAT12 showed excellent test-retest variability scores. Although CT estimations were systematically higher for CAT12, this study provides evidence that this new toolbox delivers accurate and robust CT estimates and can be considered a fast and reliable alternative to FreeSurfer. © 2018 The Authors. Journal of Neuroimaging published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of American Society of Neuroimaging.

Girsanov's transformation based variance reduced Monte Carlo simulation schemes for reliability estimation in nonlinear stochastic dynamics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kanjilal, Oindrila, E-mail: oindrila@civil.iisc.ernet.in; Manohar, C.S., E-mail: manohar@civil.iisc.ernet.in

The study considers the problem of simulation based time variant reliability analysis of nonlinear randomly excited dynamical systems. Attention is focused on importance sampling strategies based on the application of Girsanov's transformation method. Controls which minimize the distance function, as in the first order reliability method (FORM), are shown to minimize a bound on the sampling variance of the estimator for the probability of failure. Two schemes based on the application of calculus of variations for selecting control signals are proposed: the first obtains the control force as the solution of a two-point nonlinear boundary value problem, and, the secondmore » explores the application of the Volterra series in characterizing the controls. The relative merits of these schemes, vis-à-vis the method based on ideas from the FORM, are discussed. Illustrative examples, involving archetypal single degree of freedom (dof) nonlinear oscillators, and a multi-degree of freedom nonlinear dynamical system, are presented. The credentials of the proposed procedures are established by comparing the solutions with pertinent results from direct Monte Carlo simulations. - Highlights: • The distance minimizing control forces minimize a bound on the sampling variance. • Establishing Girsanov controls via solution of a two-point boundary value problem. • Girsanov controls via Volterra's series representation for the transfer functions.« less

Multi-Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) Cooperative Fault Detection Employing Differential Global Positioning (DGPS), Inertial and Vision Sensors.

PubMed

Heredia, Guillermo; Caballero, Fernando; Maza, Iván; Merino, Luis; Viguria, Antidio; Ollero, Aníbal

2009-01-01

This paper presents a method to increase the reliability of Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) sensor Fault Detection and Identification (FDI) in a multi-UAV context. Differential Global Positioning System (DGPS) and inertial sensors are used for sensor FDI in each UAV. The method uses additional position estimations that augment individual UAV FDI system. These additional estimations are obtained using images from the same planar scene taken from two different UAVs. Since accuracy and noise level of the estimation depends on several factors, dynamic replanning of the multi-UAV team can be used to obtain a better estimation in case of faults caused by slow growing errors of absolute position estimation that cannot be detected by using local FDI in the UAVs. Experimental results with data from two real UAVs are also presented.

Dental age estimation in the living after completion of third molar mineralization: new data for Gustafson's criteria.

PubMed

Timme, M; Timme, W H; Olze, A; Ottow, C; Ribbecke, S; Pfeiffer, H; Dettmeyer, R; Schmeling, A

2017-03-01

There is a need for dental age estimation methods after completion of the third molar mineralization. Degenerative dental characteristics appear to be suitable for forensic age diagnostics beyond the 18th year of life. In 2012, Olze et al. investigated the criteria studied by Gustafson using orthopantomograms. The objective of this study was to prove the applicability and reliability of this method with a large cohort and a wide age range, including older individuals. For this purpose, 2346 orthopantomograms of 1167 female and 1179 male Germans aged 15 to 70 years were reviewed. The characteristics of secondary dentin formation, cementum apposition, periodontal recession and attrition were evaluated in all the mandibular premolars. The correlation of the individual characteristics with the chronological age was examined by means of a stepwise multiple regression analysis, in which the chronological age formed the dependent variable. Following those results, R 2 values amounted to 0.73 to 0.8; the standard error of estimate was 6.8 to 8.2 years. Fundamentally, the recommendation for conducting age estimations in the living by these methods can be shared. The values for the quality of the regression are, however, not precise enough for a reliable age estimation around regular retirement date ages. More precise regression formulae for the age group of 15 to 40 years of life are separately presented in this study. Further research should investigate the influence of ethnicity, dietary habits and modern health care on the degenerative characteristics in question.

Issues in the economic evaluation of influenza vaccination by injection of healthy working adults in the US: a review and decision analysis of ten published studies.

PubMed

Hogan, Thomas J

2012-05-01

The objective was to review recent economic evaluations of influenza vaccination by injection in the US, assess their evidence, and conclude on their collective findings. The literature was searched for economic evaluations of influenza vaccination injection in healthy working adults in the US published since 1995. Ten evaluations described in nine papers were identified. These were synopsized and their results evaluated, the basic structure of all evaluations was ascertained, and sensitivity of outcomes to changes in parameter values were explored using a decision model. Areas to improve economic evaluations were noted. Eight of nine evaluations with credible economic outcomes were favourable to vaccination, representing a statistically significant result compared with a proportion of 50% that would be expected if vaccination and no vaccination were economically equivalent. Evaluations shared a basic structure, but differed considerably with respect to cost components, assumptions, methods, and parameter estimates. Sensitivity analysis indicated that changes in parameter values within the feasible range, individually or simultaneously, could reverse economic outcomes. Given stated misgivings, the methods of estimating influenza reduction ascribed to vaccination must be researched to confirm that they produce accurate and reliable estimates. Research is also needed to improve estimates of the costs per case of influenza illness and the costs of vaccination. Based on their assumptions, the reviewed papers collectively appear to support the economic benefits of influenza vaccination of healthy adults. Yet the underlying assumptions, methods and parameter estimates themselves warrant further research to confirm they are accurate, reliable and appropriate to economic evaluation purposes.

Remaining Useful Life Estimation of Insulated Gate Biploar Transistors (IGBTs) Based on a Novel Volterra k-Nearest Neighbor Optimally Pruned Extreme Learning Machine (VKOPP) Model Using Degradation Data

PubMed Central

Mei, Wenjuan; Zeng, Xianping; Yang, Chenglin; Zhou, Xiuyun

2017-01-01

The insulated gate bipolar transistor (IGBT) is a kind of excellent performance switching device used widely in power electronic systems. How to estimate the remaining useful life (RUL) of an IGBT to ensure the safety and reliability of the power electronics system is currently a challenging issue in the field of IGBT reliability. The aim of this paper is to develop a prognostic technique for estimating IGBTs’ RUL. There is a need for an efficient prognostic algorithm that is able to support in-situ decision-making. In this paper, a novel prediction model with a complete structure based on optimally pruned extreme learning machine (OPELM) and Volterra series is proposed to track the IGBT’s degradation trace and estimate its RUL; we refer to this model as Volterra k-nearest neighbor OPELM prediction (VKOPP) model. This model uses the minimum entropy rate method and Volterra series to reconstruct phase space for IGBTs’ ageing samples, and a new weight update algorithm, which can effectively reduce the influence of the outliers and noises, is utilized to establish the VKOPP network; then a combination of the k-nearest neighbor method (KNN) and least squares estimation (LSE) method is used to calculate the output weights of OPELM and predict the RUL of the IGBT. The prognostic results show that the proposed approach can predict the RUL of IGBT modules with small error and achieve higher prediction precision and lower time cost than some classic prediction approaches. PMID:29099811

Temporal Correlations and Neural Spike Train Entropy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schultz, Simon R.; Panzeri, Stefano

2001-06-01

Sampling considerations limit the experimental conditions under which information theoretic analyses of neurophysiological data yield reliable results. We develop a procedure for computing the full temporal entropy and information of ensembles of neural spike trains, which performs reliably for limited samples of data. This approach also yields insight to the role of correlations between spikes in temporal coding mechanisms. The method, when applied to recordings from complex cells of the monkey primary visual cortex, results in lower rms error information estimates in comparison to a ``brute force'' approach.

Assessing system reliability and allocating resources: a bayesian approach that integrates multi-level data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Graves, Todd L; Hamada, Michael S

2008-01-01

Good estimates of the reliability of a system make use of test data and expert knowledge at all available levels. Furthermore, by integrating all these information sources, one can determine how best to allocate scarce testing resources to reduce uncertainty. Both of these goals are facilitated by modern Bayesian computational methods. We apply these tools to examples that were previously solvable only through the use of ingenious approximations, and use genetic algorithms to guide resource allocation.

A Measure for the Reliability of a Rating Scale Based on Longitudinal Clinical Trial Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Laenen, Annouschka; Alonso, Ariel; Molenberghs, Geert

2007-01-01

A new measure for reliability of a rating scale is introduced, based on the classical definition of reliability, as the ratio of the true score variance and the total variance. Clinical trial data can be employed to estimate the reliability of the scale in use, whenever repeated measurements are taken. The reliability is estimated from the…

A new anisotropic mesh adaptation method based upon hierarchical a posteriori error estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Weizhang; Kamenski, Lennard; Lang, Jens

2010-03-01

A new anisotropic mesh adaptation strategy for finite element solution of elliptic differential equations is presented. It generates anisotropic adaptive meshes as quasi-uniform ones in some metric space, with the metric tensor being computed based on hierarchical a posteriori error estimates. A global hierarchical error estimate is employed in this study to obtain reliable directional information of the solution. Instead of solving the global error problem exactly, which is costly in general, we solve it iteratively using the symmetric Gauß-Seidel method. Numerical results show that a few GS iterations are sufficient for obtaining a reasonably good approximation to the error for use in anisotropic mesh adaptation. The new method is compared with several strategies using local error estimators or recovered Hessians. Numerical results are presented for a selection of test examples and a mathematical model for heat conduction in a thermal battery with large orthotropic jumps in the material coefficients.

A reference estimator based on composite sensor pattern noise for source device identification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Ruizhe; Li, Chang-Tsun; Guan, Yu

2014-02-01

It has been proved that Sensor Pattern Noise (SPN) can serve as an imaging device fingerprint for source camera identification. Reference SPN estimation is a very important procedure within the framework of this application. Most previous works built reference SPN by averaging the SPNs extracted from 50 images of blue sky. However, this method can be problematic. Firstly, in practice we may face the problem of source camera identification in the absence of the imaging cameras and reference SPNs, which means only natural images with scene details are available for reference SPN estimation rather than blue sky images. It is challenging because the reference SPN can be severely contaminated by image content. Secondly, the number of available reference images sometimes is too few for existing methods to estimate a reliable reference SPN. In fact, existing methods lack consideration of the number of available reference images as they were designed for the datasets with abundant images to estimate the reference SPN. In order to deal with the aforementioned problem, in this work, a novel reference estimator is proposed. Experimental results show that our proposed method achieves better performance than the methods based on the averaged reference SPN, especially when few reference images used.

Rapid calculation of genomic evaluations for new animals

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

A method was developed to calculate preliminary genomic evaluations daily or weekly before the release of official monthly evaluations by processing only newly genotyped animals using estimates of SNP effects from the previous official evaluation. To minimize computing time, reliabilities and genomi...

Conditional Standard Errors of Measurement for Scale Scores.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kolen, Michael J.; And Others

1992-01-01

A procedure is described for estimating the reliability and conditional standard errors of measurement of scale scores incorporating the discrete transformation of raw scores to scale scores. The method is illustrated using a strong true score model, and practical applications are described. (SLD)

Reliable Real-Time Solution of Parametrized Partial Differential Equations: Reduced-Basis Output Bound Methods. Appendix 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Prudhomme, C.; Rovas, D. V.; Veroy, K.; Machiels, L.; Maday, Y.; Patera, A. T.; Turinici, G.; Zang, Thomas A., Jr. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

We present a technique for the rapid and reliable prediction of linear-functional outputs of elliptic (and parabolic) partial differential equations with affine parameter dependence. The essential components are (i) (provably) rapidly convergent global reduced basis approximations, Galerkin projection onto a space W(sub N) spanned by solutions of the governing partial differential equation at N selected points in parameter space; (ii) a posteriori error estimation, relaxations of the error-residual equation that provide inexpensive yet sharp and rigorous bounds for the error in the outputs of interest; and (iii) off-line/on-line computational procedures, methods which decouple the generation and projection stages of the approximation process. The operation count for the on-line stage, in which, given a new parameter value, we calculate the output of interest and associated error bound, depends only on N (typically very small) and the parametric complexity of the problem; the method is thus ideally suited for the repeated and rapid evaluations required in the context of parameter estimation, design, optimization, and real-time control.

MCMC genome rearrangement.

PubMed

Miklós, István

2003-10-01

As more and more genomes have been sequenced, genomic data is rapidly accumulating. Genome-wide mutations are believed more neutral than local mutations such as substitutions, insertions and deletions, therefore phylogenetic investigations based on inversions, transpositions and inverted transpositions are less biased by the hypothesis on neutral evolution. Although efficient algorithms exist for obtaining the inversion distance of two signed permutations, there is no reliable algorithm when both inversions and transpositions are considered. Moreover, different type of mutations happen with different rates, and it is not clear how to weight them in a distance based approach. We introduce a Markov Chain Monte Carlo method to genome rearrangement based on a stochastic model of evolution, which can estimate the number of different evolutionary events needed to sort a signed permutation. The performance of the method was tested on simulated data, and the estimated numbers of different types of mutations were reliable. Human and Drosophila mitochondrial data were also analysed with the new method. The mixing time of the Markov Chain is short both in terms of CPU times and number of proposals. The source code in C is available on request from the author.

Towards an Operational Definition of Clinical Competency in Pharmacy

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

Objective. To estimate the inter-rater reliability and accuracy of ratings of competence in student pharmacist/patient clinical interactions as depicted in videotaped simulations and to compare expert panelist and typical preceptor ratings of those interactions. Methods. This study used a multifactorial experimental design to estimate inter-rater reliability and accuracy of preceptors’ assessment of student performance in clinical simulations. The study protocol used nine 5-10 minute video vignettes portraying different levels of competency in student performance in simulated clinical interactions. Intra-Class Correlation (ICC) was used to calculate inter-rater reliability and Fisher exact test was used to compare differences in distribution of scores between expert and nonexpert assessments. Results. Preceptors (n=42) across 5 states assessed the simulated performances. Intra-Class Correlation estimates were higher for 3 nonrandomized video simulations compared to the 6 randomized simulations. Preceptors more readily identified high and low student performances compared to satisfactory performances. In nearly two-thirds of the rating opportunities, a higher proportion of expert panelists than preceptors rated the student performance correctly (18 of 27 scenarios). Conclusion. Valid and reliable assessments are critically important because they affect student grades and formative student feedback. Study results indicate the need for pharmacy preceptor training in performance assessment. The process demonstrated in this study can be used to establish minimum preceptor benchmarks for future national training programs. PMID:26089563

How reliable is apparent age at death on cadavers?

PubMed

Amadasi, Alberto; Merusi, Nicolò; Cattaneo, Cristina

2015-07-01

The assessment of age at death for identification purposes is a frequent and tough challenge for forensic pathologists and anthropologists. Too frequently, visual assessment of age is performed on well-preserved corpses, a method considered subjective and full of pitfalls, but whose level of inadequacy no one has yet tested or proven. This study consisted in the visual estimation of the age of 100 cadavers performed by a total of 37 observers among those usually attending the dissection room. Cadavers were of Caucasian ethnicity, well preserved, belonging to individuals who died of natural death. All the evaluations were performed prior to autopsy. Observers assessed the age with ranges of 5 and 10 years, indicating also the body part they mainly observed for each case. Globally, the 5-year range had an accuracy of 35%, increasing to 69% with the 10-year range. The highest accuracy was in the 31-60 age category (74.7% with the 10-year range), and the skin seemed to be the most reliable age parameter (71.5% of accuracy when observed), while the face was considered most frequently, in 92.4% of cases. A simple formula with the general "mean of averages" in the range given by the observers and related standard deviations was then developed; the average values with standard deviations of 4.62 lead to age estimation with ranges of some 20 years that seem to be fairly reliable and suitable, sometimes in alignment with classic anthropological methods, in the age estimation of well-preserved corpses.

A medical record review for functional somatic symptoms in children.

PubMed

Rask, Charlotte Ulrikka; Borg, Carsten; Søndergaard, Charlotte; Schulz-Pedersen, Søren; Thomsen, Per Hove; Fink, Per

2010-04-01

The objectives of this study were to develop and test a systematic medical record review for functional somatic symptoms (FSSs) in paediatric patients and to estimate the inter-rater reliability of paediatricians' recognition of FSSs and their associated impairments while using this method. We developed the Medical Record Review for Functional Somatic Symptoms in Children (MRFC) for retrospective medical record review. Described symptoms were categorised as probably, definitely, or not FSSs. FSS-associated impairment was also determined. Three paediatricians performed the MRFC on the medical records of 54 children with a diagnosed, well-defined physical disease and 59 with 'symptom' diagnoses. The inter-rater reliabilities of the recognition and associated impairment of FSSs were tested on 20 of these records. The MRFC allowed identification of subgroups of children with multisymptomatic FSSs, long-term FSSs, and/or impairing FSSs. The FSS inter-rater reliability was good (combined kappa=0.69) but only fair as far as associated impairment was concerned (combined kappa=0.29). In the hands of skilled paediatricians, the MRFC is a reliable method for identifying paediatric patients with diverse types of FSSs for clinical research. However, additional information is needed for reliable judgement of impairment. The method may also prove useful in clinical practice. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

UV Spectrophotometric Method for Estimation of Polypeptide-K in Bulk and Tablet Dosage Forms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaur, P.; Singh, S. Kumar; Gulati, M.; Vaidya, Y.

2016-01-01

An analytical method for estimation of polypeptide-k using UV spectrophotometry has been developed and validated for bulk as well as tablet dosage form. The developed method was validated for linearity, precision, accuracy, specificity, robustness, detection, and quantitation limits. The method has shown good linearity over the range from 100.0 to 300.0 μg/ml with a correlation coefficient of 0.9943. The percentage recovery of 99.88% showed that the method was highly accurate. The precision demonstrated relative standard deviation of less than 2.0%. The LOD and LOQ of the method were found to be 4.4 and 13.33, respectively. The study established that the proposed method is reliable, specific, reproducible, and cost-effective for the determination of polypeptide-k.

Method paper--distance and travel time to casualty clinics in Norway based on crowdsourced postcode coordinates: a comparison with other methods.

PubMed

Raknes, Guttorm; Hunskaar, Steinar

2014-01-01

We describe a method that uses crowdsourced postcode coordinates and Google maps to estimate average distance and travel time for inhabitants of a municipality to a casualty clinic in Norway. The new method was compared with methods based on population centroids, median distance and town hall location, and we used it to examine how distance affects the utilisation of out-of-hours primary care services. At short distances our method showed good correlation with mean travel time and distance. The utilisation of out-of-hours services correlated with postcode based distances similar to previous research. The results show that our method is a reliable and useful tool for estimating average travel distances and travel times.

Comparison of GPS receiver DCB estimation methods using a GPS network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, Byung-Kyu; Park, Jong-Uk; Min Roh, Kyoung; Lee, Sang-Jeong

2013-07-01

Two approaches for receiver differential code biases (DCB) estimation using the GPS data obtained from the Korean GPS network (KGN) in South Korea are suggested: the relative and single (absolute) methods. The relative method uses a GPS network, while the single method determines DCBs from a single station only. Their performance was assessed by comparing the receiver DCB values obtained from the relative method with those estimated by the single method. The daily averaged receiver DCBs obtained from the two different approaches showed good agreement for 7 days. The root mean square (RMS) value of those differences is 0.83 nanoseconds (ns). The standard deviation of the receiver DCBs estimated by the relative method was smaller than that of the single method. From these results, it is clear that the relative method can obtain more stable receiver DCBs compared with the single method over a short-term period. Additionally, the comparison between the receiver DCBs obtained by the Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute (KASI) and those of the IGS Global Ionosphere Maps (GIM) showed a good agreement at 0.3 ns. As the accuracy of DCB values significantly affects the accuracy of ionospheric total electron content (TEC), more studies are needed to ensure the reliability and stability of the estimated receiver DCBs.

Estimating child mortality and modelling its age pattern for India.

PubMed

Roy, S G

1989-06-01

"Using data [for India] on proportions of children dead...estimates of infant and child mortality are...obtained by Sullivan and Trussell modifications of [the] Brass basic method. The estimate of child survivorship function derived after logit smoothing appears to be more reliable than that obtained by the Census Actuary. The age pattern of childhood mortality is suitably modelled by [a] Weibull function defining the probability of surviving from birth to a specified age and involving two parameters of level and shape. A recently developed linearization procedure based on [a] graphical approach is adopted for estimating the parameters of the function." excerpt

Measurement of pulmonary arterial elastance in patients with systolic heart failure using Doppler echocardiography

PubMed Central

Taghavi, Sepideh; Esmaeilzadeh, Maryam; Amin, Ahmad; Naderi, Nasim; Abkenar, Hooman Bakhshandeh; Maleki, Majid; Mitra, Chitsazan

2016-01-01

Objective: A reliable and easy-to-perform method for measuring right ventricular (RV) afterload is desirable when scheduling patients with systolic heart failure to undergo heart transplantation. The present study aimed to investigate the accuracy of echocardiographically-derived pulmonary arterial elastance as a measurement of pulmonary vascular resistance by comparing it with invasive measures. Methods: Thirty-one patients with moderate to severe systolic heart failure, including 22 (71%) male patients, with a mean age of 41.16±15.9 years were enrolled in the study. Right heart catheterization and comprehensive echocardiography during the first hour after completion of cardiac catheterization were performed in all the patients. The pulmonary artery elastance was estimated using the ratio of end-systolic pressure (Pes) over the stroke volume (SV) by both cardiac catheterization [Ea (PV)-C] and echocardiography [Ea (PV)-E]. Results: The mean Ea (PV)-C and Ea (PV)-E were estimated to be 0.73±0.49 mm Hg/mL and 0.67±0.44 mm Hg/mL, respectively. There was a significant relation between Ea (PV)-E and Ea (PV)-C (r=0.897, p<0.001). Agreement between echocardiography and catheterization methods for estimating Ea (PV), investigated by the Bland-Altman method, showed a mean bias of -0.06, with 95% limits of agreement from -0.36 mm Hg/mL to 0.48 mm Hg/mL. Conclusion: Doppler echocardiography is an easy, non-invasive, and inexpensive method for measuring pulmonary arterial elastance, which provides accurate and reliable estimation of RV afterload in patients with systolic heart failure. PMID:26467379

Generalizability and decision studies to inform observational and experimental research in classroom settings.

PubMed

Bottema-Beutel, Kristen; Lloyd, Blair; Carter, Erik W; Asmus, Jennifer M

2014-11-01

Attaining reliable estimates of observational measures can be challenging in school and classroom settings, as behavior can be influenced by multiple contextual factors. Generalizability (G) studies can enable researchers to estimate the reliability of observational data, and decision (D) studies can inform how many observation sessions are necessary to achieve a criterion level of reliability. We conducted G and D studies using observational data from a randomized control trial focusing on social and academic participation of students with severe disabilities in inclusive secondary classrooms. Results highlight the importance of anchoring observational decisions to reliability estimates from existing or pilot data sets. We outline steps for conducting G and D studies and address options when reliability estimates are lower than desired.