Measuring Complexity and Predictability of Time Series with Flexible Multiscale Entropy for Sensor Networks

PubMed Central

Zhou, Renjie; Yang, Chen; Wan, Jian; Zhang, Wei; Guan, Bo; Xiong, Naixue

2017-01-01

Measurement of time series complexity and predictability is sometimes the cornerstone for proposing solutions to topology and congestion control problems in sensor networks. As a method of measuring time series complexity and predictability, multiscale entropy (MSE) has been widely applied in many fields. However, sample entropy, which is the fundamental component of MSE, measures the similarity of two subsequences of a time series with either zero or one, but without in-between values, which causes sudden changes of entropy values even if the time series embraces small changes. This problem becomes especially severe when the length of time series is getting short. For solving such the problem, we propose flexible multiscale entropy (FMSE), which introduces a novel similarity function measuring the similarity of two subsequences with full-range values from zero to one, and thus increases the reliability and stability of measuring time series complexity. The proposed method is evaluated on both synthetic and real time series, including white noise, 1/f noise and real vibration signals. The evaluation results demonstrate that FMSE has a significant improvement in reliability and stability of measuring complexity of time series, especially when the length of time series is short, compared to MSE and composite multiscale entropy (CMSE). The proposed method FMSE is capable of improving the performance of time series analysis based topology and traffic congestion control techniques. PMID:28383496

Measuring Complexity and Predictability of Time Series with Flexible Multiscale Entropy for Sensor Networks.

PubMed

Zhou, Renjie; Yang, Chen; Wan, Jian; Zhang, Wei; Guan, Bo; Xiong, Naixue

2017-04-06

Measurement of time series complexity and predictability is sometimes the cornerstone for proposing solutions to topology and congestion control problems in sensor networks. As a method of measuring time series complexity and predictability, multiscale entropy (MSE) has been widely applied in many fields. However, sample entropy, which is the fundamental component of MSE, measures the similarity of two subsequences of a time series with either zero or one, but without in-between values, which causes sudden changes of entropy values even if the time series embraces small changes. This problem becomes especially severe when the length of time series is getting short. For solving such the problem, we propose flexible multiscale entropy (FMSE), which introduces a novel similarity function measuring the similarity of two subsequences with full-range values from zero to one, and thus increases the reliability and stability of measuring time series complexity. The proposed method is evaluated on both synthetic and real time series, including white noise, 1/f noise and real vibration signals. The evaluation results demonstrate that FMSE has a significant improvement in reliability and stability of measuring complexity of time series, especially when the length of time series is short, compared to MSE and composite multiscale entropy (CMSE). The proposed method FMSE is capable of improving the performance of time series analysis based topology and traffic congestion control techniques.

New techniques for modeling the reliability of reactor pressure vessels

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Johnson, K.I.; Simonen, F.A.; Liebetrau, A.M.

1985-12-01

In recent years several probabilistic fracture mechanics codes, including the VISA code, have been developed to predict the reliability of reactor pressure vessels. This paper describes new modeling techniques used in a second generation of the VISA code entitled VISA-II. Results are presented that show the sensitivity of vessel reliability predictions to such factors as inservice inspection to detect flaws, random positioning of flaws within the vessel walls thickness, and fluence distributions that vary through-out the vessel. The algorithms used to implement these modeling techniques are also described. Other new options in VISA-II are also described in this paper. Themore » effect of vessel cladding has been included in the heat transfer, stress, and fracture mechanics solutions in VISA-II. The algorithm for simulating flaws has been changed to consider an entire vessel rather than a single flaw in a single weld. The flaw distribution was changed to include the distribution of both flaw depth and length. A menu of several alternate equations has been included to predict the shift in RTNDT. For flaws that arrest and later re-initiate, an option was also included to allow correlating the current arrest thoughness with subsequent initiation toughnesses. 21 refs.« less

Prediction of Seasonal Climate-induced Variations in Global Food Production

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Iizumi, Toshichika; Sakuma, Hirofumi; Yokozawa, Masayuki; Luo, Jing-Jia; Challinor, Andrew J.; Brown, Molly E.; Sakurai, Gen; Yamagata, Toshio

2013-01-01

Consumers, including the poor in many countries, are increasingly dependent on food imports and are therefore exposed to variations in yields, production, and export prices in the major food-producing regions of the world. National governments and commercial entities are paying increased attention to the cropping forecasts of major food-exporting countries as well as to their own domestic food production. Given the increased volatility of food markets and the rising incidence of climatic extremes affecting food production, food price spikes may increase in prevalence in future years. Here we present a global assessment of the reliability of crop failure hindcasts for major crops at two lead times derived by linking ensemble seasonal climatic forecasts with statistical crop models. We assessed the reliability of hindcasts (i.e., retrospective forecasts for the past) of crop yield loss relative to the previous year for two lead times. Pre-season yield predictions employ climatic forecasts and have lead times of approximately 3 to 5 months for providing information regarding variations in yields for the coming cropping season. Within-season yield predictions use climatic forecasts with lead times of 1 to 3 months. Pre-season predictions can be of value to national governments and commercial concerns, complemented by subsequent updates from within-season predictions. The latter incorporate information on the most recent climatic data for the upcoming period of reproductive growth. In addition to such predictions, hindcasts using observations from satellites were performed to demonstrate the upper limit of the reliability of crop forecasting.

Signs and symptoms that precede wheezing in children with a pattern of moderate-to-severe intermittent wheezing.

PubMed

Rivera-Spoljaric, Katherine; Chinchilli, Vernon M; Camera, Lindsay J; Zeiger, Robert S; Paul, Ian M; Phillips, Brenda R; Taussig, Lynn M; Strunk, Robert C; Bacharier, Leonard B

2009-06-01

To examine parent-reported signs and symptoms as antecedents of wheezing in preschool children with previous moderate to severe wheezing episodes, and to determine the predictive capacity of these symptom patterns for wheezing events. Parents (n = 238) of children age 12 to 59 months with moderate-to-severe intermittent wheezing enrolled in a year-long clinical trial completed surveys that captured signs and symptoms at the start of a respiratory tract illness (RTI). Sensitivity, specificity, negative predictive value, and positive predictive value (PPV) for each symptom leading to wheezing during that RTI were calculated. The most commonly reported first symptom categories during the first RTI were "nose symptoms" (41%), "significant cough" (29%), and "insignificant cough" (13%). The most reliable predictor of subsequent wheezing was significant cough, which had a specificity of 78% and a PPV of 74% for predicting wheezing. Significant cough is the most reliable antecedent of wheezing during an RTI. It may be useful to consider individualized symptom patterns as a component of management plans intended to minimize wheezing episodes.

Validation of a new classification system for skin tears.

PubMed

LeBlanc, Kimberly; Baranoski, Sharon; Holloway, Samantha; Langemo, Diane

2013-06-01

The aim of this study was to validate and establish reliability of the International Skin Tear classification system. A consensus panel of 12 internationally recognized key opinion leaders convened in 2011 to establish consensus statements on the prevention, prediction, assessment, and treatment of skin tears. Subsequently, a new skin tear classification system was proposed. The system was then tested for interrater and intrarater reliability between the experts before being tested more widely on a sample of 327 individuals from the United States, Canada, and Europe. The results of the study indicated a substantial level of agreement for the expert panel (Fleiss κ = 0.619; 2-month follow-up = 0.653). Intrarater reliability was high (Cohen κ = 0.877). Interrater reliability was moderate (Fleiss κ = 0.555) for healthcare professionals (n = 303) and fair for non-health professionals (Fleiss κ = 0.338; n = 24). This international study established the reliability and validity of a new classification system for skin tears.

Auditory color constancy: calibration to reliable spectral properties across nonspeech context and targets.

PubMed

Stilp, Christian E; Alexander, Joshua M; Kiefte, Michael; Kluender, Keith R

2010-02-01

Brief experience with reliable spectral characteristics of a listening context can markedly alter perception of subsequent speech sounds, and parallels have been drawn between auditory compensation for listening context and visual color constancy. In order to better evaluate such an analogy, the generality of acoustic context effects for sounds with spectral-temporal compositions distinct from speech was investigated. Listeners identified nonspeech sounds-extensively edited samples produced by a French horn and a tenor saxophone-following either resynthesized speech or a short passage of music. Preceding contexts were "colored" by spectral envelope difference filters, which were created to emphasize differences between French horn and saxophone spectra. Listeners were more likely to report hearing a saxophone when the stimulus followed a context filtered to emphasize spectral characteristics of the French horn, and vice versa. Despite clear changes in apparent acoustic source, the auditory system calibrated to relatively predictable spectral characteristics of filtered context, differentially affecting perception of subsequent target nonspeech sounds. This calibration to listening context and relative indifference to acoustic sources operates much like visual color constancy, for which reliable properties of the spectrum of illumination are factored out of perception of color.

Extracting More Information from Passive Optical Tracking Observations for Reliable Orbit Element Generation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bennett, J.; Gehly, S.

2016-09-01

This paper presents results from a preliminary method for extracting more orbital information from low rate passive optical tracking data. An improvement in the accuracy of the observation data yields more accurate and reliable orbital elements. A comparison between the orbit propagations from the orbital element generated using the new data processing method is compared with the one generated from the raw observation data for several objects. Optical tracking data collected by EOS Space Systems, located on Mount Stromlo, Australia, is fitted to provide a new orbital element. The element accuracy is determined from a comparison between the predicted orbit and subsequent tracking data or reference orbit if available. The new method is shown to result in a better orbit prediction which has important implications in conjunction assessments and the Space Environment Research Centre space object catalogue. The focus is on obtaining reliable orbital solutions from sparse data. This work forms part of the collaborative effort of the Space Environment Management Cooperative Research Centre which is developing new technologies and strategies to preserve the space environment (www.serc.org.au).

Predicting Persuasion-Induced Behavior Change from the Brain

PubMed Central

Falk, Emily B.; Berkman, Elliot T.; Mann, Traci; Harrison, Brittany; Lieberman, Matthew D.

2011-01-01

Although persuasive messages often alter people’s self-reported attitudes and intentions to perform behaviors, these self-reports do not necessarily predict behavior change. We demonstrate that neural responses to persuasive messages can predict variability in behavior change in the subsequent week. Specifically, an a priori region of interest (ROI) in medial prefrontal cortex (MPFC) was reliably associated with behavior change (r = 0.49, p < 0.05). Additionally, an iterative cross-validation approach using activity in this MPFC ROI predicted an average 23% of the variance in behavior change beyond the variance predicted by self-reported attitudes and intentions. Thus, neural signals can predict behavioral changes that are not predicted from self-reported attitudes and intentions alone. Additionally, this is the first functional magnetic resonance imaging study to demonstrate that a neural signal can predict complex real world behavior days in advance. PMID:20573889

New techniques for modeling the reliability of reactor pressure vessels

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Johnson, K.I.; Simonen, F.A.; Liebetrau, A.M.

1986-01-01

In recent years several probabilistic fracture mechanics codes, including the VISA code, have been developed to predict the reliability of reactor pressure vessels. This paper describes several new modeling techniques used in a second generation of the VISA code entitled VISA-II. Results are presented that show the sensitivity of vessel reliability predictions to such factors as inservice inspection to detect flaws, random positioning of flaws within the vessel wall thickness, and fluence distributions that vary throughout the vessel. The algorithms used to implement these modeling techniques are also described. Other new options in VISA-II are also described in this paper.more » The effect of vessel cladding has been included in the heat transfer, stress, and fracture mechanics solutions in VISA-II. The algorithms for simulating flaws has been changed to consider an entire vessel rather than a single flaw in a single weld. The flaw distribution was changed to include the distribution of both flaw depth and length. A menu of several alternate equations has been included to predict the shift in RT/sub NDT/. For flaws that arrest and later re-initiate, an option was also included to allow correlating the current arrest toughness with subsequent initiation toughnesses.« less

Analysis of spatial distribution of land cover maps accuracy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khatami, R.; Mountrakis, G.; Stehman, S. V.

2017-12-01

Land cover maps have become one of the most important products of remote sensing science. However, classification errors will exist in any classified map and affect the reliability of subsequent map usage. Moreover, classification accuracy often varies over different regions of a classified map. These variations of accuracy will affect the reliability of subsequent analyses of different regions based on the classified maps. The traditional approach of map accuracy assessment based on an error matrix does not capture the spatial variation in classification accuracy. Here, per-pixel accuracy prediction methods are proposed based on interpolating accuracy values from a test sample to produce wall-to-wall accuracy maps. Different accuracy prediction methods were developed based on four factors: predictive domain (spatial versus spectral), interpolation function (constant, linear, Gaussian, and logistic), incorporation of class information (interpolating each class separately versus grouping them together), and sample size. Incorporation of spectral domain as explanatory feature spaces of classification accuracy interpolation was done for the first time in this research. Performance of the prediction methods was evaluated using 26 test blocks, with 10 km × 10 km dimensions, dispersed throughout the United States. The performance of the predictions was evaluated using the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic. Relative to existing accuracy prediction methods, our proposed methods resulted in improvements of AUC of 0.15 or greater. Evaluation of the four factors comprising the accuracy prediction methods demonstrated that: i) interpolations should be done separately for each class instead of grouping all classes together; ii) if an all-classes approach is used, the spectral domain will result in substantially greater AUC than the spatial domain; iii) for the smaller sample size and per-class predictions, the spectral and spatial domain yielded similar AUC; iv) for the larger sample size (i.e., very dense spatial sample) and per-class predictions, the spatial domain yielded larger AUC; v) increasing the sample size improved accuracy predictions with a greater benefit accruing to the spatial domain; and vi) the function used for interpolation had the smallest effect on AUC.

Lifetime prediction and reliability estimation methodology for Stirling-type pulse tube refrigerators by gaseous contamination accelerated degradation testing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wan, Fubin; Tan, Yuanyuan; Jiang, Zhenhua; Chen, Xun; Wu, Yinong; Zhao, Peng

2017-12-01

Lifetime and reliability are the two performance parameters of premium importance for modern space Stirling-type pulse tube refrigerators (SPTRs), which are required to operate in excess of 10 years. Demonstration of these parameters provides a significant challenge. This paper proposes a lifetime prediction and reliability estimation method that utilizes accelerated degradation testing (ADT) for SPTRs related to gaseous contamination failure. The method was experimentally validated via three groups of gaseous contamination ADT. First, the performance degradation model based on mechanism of contamination failure and material outgassing characteristics of SPTRs was established. Next, a preliminary test was performed to determine whether the mechanism of contamination failure of the SPTRs during ADT is consistent with normal life testing. Subsequently, the experimental program of ADT was designed for SPTRs. Then, three groups of gaseous contamination ADT were performed at elevated ambient temperatures of 40 °C, 50 °C, and 60 °C, respectively and the estimated lifetimes of the SPTRs under normal condition were obtained through acceleration model (Arrhenius model). The results show good fitting of the degradation model with the experimental data. Finally, we obtained the reliability estimation of SPTRs through using the Weibull distribution. The proposed novel methodology enables us to take less than one year time to estimate the reliability of the SPTRs designed for more than 10 years.

Local connectome phenotypes predict social, health, and cognitive factors

PubMed Central

Powell, Michael A.; Garcia, Javier O.; Yeh, Fang-Cheng; Vettel, Jean M.

2018-01-01

The unique architecture of the human connectome is defined initially by genetics and subsequently sculpted over time with experience. Thus, similarities in predisposition and experience that lead to similarities in social, biological, and cognitive attributes should also be reflected in the local architecture of white matter fascicles. Here we employ a method known as local connectome fingerprinting that uses diffusion MRI to measure the fiber-wise characteristics of macroscopic white matter pathways throughout the brain. This fingerprinting approach was applied to a large sample (N = 841) of subjects from the Human Connectome Project, revealing a reliable degree of between-subject correlation in the local connectome fingerprints, with a relatively complex, low-dimensional substructure. Using a cross-validated, high-dimensional regression analysis approach, we derived local connectome phenotype (LCP) maps that could reliably predict a subset of subject attributes measured, including demographic, health, and cognitive measures. These LCP maps were highly specific to the attribute being predicted but also sensitive to correlations between attributes. Collectively, these results indicate that the local architecture of white matter fascicles reflects a meaningful portion of the variability shared between subjects along several dimensions. PMID:29911679

Local connectome phenotypes predict social, health, and cognitive factors.

PubMed

Powell, Michael A; Garcia, Javier O; Yeh, Fang-Cheng; Vettel, Jean M; Verstynen, Timothy

2018-01-01

The unique architecture of the human connectome is defined initially by genetics and subsequently sculpted over time with experience. Thus, similarities in predisposition and experience that lead to similarities in social, biological, and cognitive attributes should also be reflected in the local architecture of white matter fascicles. Here we employ a method known as local connectome fingerprinting that uses diffusion MRI to measure the fiber-wise characteristics of macroscopic white matter pathways throughout the brain. This fingerprinting approach was applied to a large sample ( N = 841) of subjects from the Human Connectome Project, revealing a reliable degree of between-subject correlation in the local connectome fingerprints, with a relatively complex, low-dimensional substructure. Using a cross-validated, high-dimensional regression analysis approach, we derived local connectome phenotype (LCP) maps that could reliably predict a subset of subject attributes measured, including demographic, health, and cognitive measures. These LCP maps were highly specific to the attribute being predicted but also sensitive to correlations between attributes. Collectively, these results indicate that the local architecture of white matter fascicles reflects a meaningful portion of the variability shared between subjects along several dimensions.

Improved Rubin-Bodner Model for the Prediction of Soft Tissue Deformations

PubMed Central

Zhang, Guangming; Xia, James J.; Liebschner, Michael; Zhang, Xiaoyan; Kim, Daeseung; Zhou, Xiaobo

2016-01-01

In craniomaxillofacial (CMF) surgery, a reliable way of simulating the soft tissue deformation resulted from skeletal reconstruction is vitally important for preventing the risks of facial distortion postoperatively. However, it is difficult to simulate the soft tissue behaviors affected by different types of CMF surgery. This study presents an integrated bio-mechanical and statistical learning model to improve accuracy and reliability of predictions on soft facial tissue behavior. The Rubin-Bodner (RB) model is initially used to describe the biomechanical behavior of the soft facial tissue. Subsequently, a finite element model (FEM) computers the stress of each node in soft facial tissue mesh data resulted from bone displacement. Next, the Generalized Regression Neural Network (GRNN) method is implemented to obtain the relationship between the facial soft tissue deformation and the stress distribution corresponding to different CMF surgical types and to improve evaluation of elastic parameters included in the RB model. Therefore, the soft facial tissue deformation can be predicted by biomechanical properties and statistical model. Leave-one-out cross-validation is used on eleven patients. As a result, the average prediction error of our model (0.7035mm) is lower than those resulting from other approaches. It also demonstrates that the more accurate bio-mechanical information the model has, the better prediction performance it could achieve. PMID:27717593

Towards parsimony in habit measurement: Testing the convergent and predictive validity of an automaticity subscale of the Self-Report Habit Index

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background The twelve-item Self-Report Habit Index (SRHI) is the most popular measure of energy-balance related habits. This measure characterises habit by automatic activation, behavioural frequency, and relevance to self-identity. Previous empirical research suggests that the SRHI may be abbreviated with no losses in reliability or predictive utility. Drawing on recent theorising suggesting that automaticity is the ‘active ingredient’ of habit-behaviour relationships, we tested whether an automaticity-specific SRHI subscale could capture habit-based behaviour patterns in self-report data. Methods A content validity task was undertaken to identify a subset of automaticity indicators within the SRHI. The reliability, convergent validity and predictive validity of the automaticity item subset was subsequently tested in secondary analyses of all previous SRHI applications, identified via systematic review, and in primary analyses of four raw datasets relating to energy‐balance relevant behaviours (inactive travel, active travel, snacking, and alcohol consumption). Results A four-item automaticity subscale (the ‘Self-Report Behavioural Automaticity Index’; ‘SRBAI’) was found to be reliable and sensitive to two hypothesised effects of habit on behaviour: a habit-behaviour correlation, and a moderating effect of habit on the intention-behaviour relationship. Conclusion The SRBAI offers a parsimonious measure that adequately captures habitual behaviour patterns. The SRBAI may be of particular utility in predicting future behaviour and in studies tracking habit formation or disruption. PMID:22935297

Validation of the FACT-B+4-UL questionnaire and exploration of its predictive value in women submitted to surgery for breast cancer.

PubMed

Andrade Ortega, Juan Alfonso; Millán Gómez, Ana Pilar; Ribeiro González, Marisa; Martínez Piró, Pilar; Jiménez Anula, Juan; Sánchez Andújar, María Belén

2017-06-21

The early detection of upper limb complications is important in women operated on for breast cancer. The "FACT-B+4-UL" questionnaire, a specific variant of the Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy-Breast (FACT-B) is available among others to measure the upper limb function. The Spanish version of the upper limb subscale of the FACT-B+4 was validated in a prospective cohort of 201 women operated on for breast cancer (factor analysis, internal consistency, test-retest reliability, construct validity and sensitivity to change were determined). Its predictive capacity of subsequent lymphoedema and other complications in the upper limb was explored using logistic regression. This subscale is unifactorial and has a great internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha: 0.87), its test-retest reliability and construct validity are strong (intraclass correlation coefficient: 0.986; Pearson's R with "Quick DASH": 0.81) as is its sensitivity to change. It didn't predict the onset of lymphedema. Its predictive capacity for other upper limb complications is low. FACT-B+4-UL is useful in measuring upper limb disability in women surgically treated for breast cancer; but it does not predict the onset of lymphoedema and its predictive capacity for others complications in the upper limb is low. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Development and validation of a tool to evaluate the quality of medical education websites in pathology.

PubMed

Alyusuf, Raja H; Prasad, Kameshwar; Abdel Satir, Ali M; Abalkhail, Ali A; Arora, Roopa K

2013-01-01

The exponential use of the internet as a learning resource coupled with varied quality of many websites, lead to a need to identify suitable websites for teaching purposes. The aim of this study is to develop and to validate a tool, which evaluates the quality of undergraduate medical educational websites; and apply it to the field of pathology. A tool was devised through several steps of item generation, reduction, weightage, pilot testing, post-pilot modification of the tool and validating the tool. Tool validation included measurement of inter-observer reliability; and generation of criterion related, construct related and content related validity. The validated tool was subsequently tested by applying it to a population of pathology websites. Reliability testing showed a high internal consistency reliability (Cronbach's alpha = 0.92), high inter-observer reliability (Pearson's correlation r = 0.88), intraclass correlation coefficient = 0.85 and κ =0.75. It showed high criterion related, construct related and content related validity. The tool showed moderately high concordance with the gold standard (κ =0.61); 92.2% sensitivity, 67.8% specificity, 75.6% positive predictive value and 88.9% negative predictive value. The validated tool was applied to 278 websites; 29.9% were rated as recommended, 41.0% as recommended with caution and 29.1% as not recommended. A systematic tool was devised to evaluate the quality of websites for medical educational purposes. The tool was shown to yield reliable and valid inferences through its application to pathology websites.

Multi-voxel patterns of visual category representation during episodic encoding are predictive of subsequent memory

PubMed Central

Kuhl, Brice A.; Rissman, Jesse; Wagner, Anthony D.

2012-01-01

Successful encoding of episodic memories is thought to depend on contributions from prefrontal and temporal lobe structures. Neural processes that contribute to successful encoding have been extensively explored through univariate analyses of neuroimaging data that compare mean activity levels elicited during the encoding of events that are subsequently remembered vs. those subsequently forgotten. Here, we applied pattern classification to fMRI data to assess the degree to which distributed patterns of activity within prefrontal and temporal lobe structures elicited during the encoding of word-image pairs were diagnostic of the visual category (Face or Scene) of the encoded image. We then assessed whether representation of category information was predictive of subsequent memory. Classification analyses indicated that temporal lobe structures contained information robustly diagnostic of visual category. Information in prefrontal cortex was less diagnostic of visual category, but was nonetheless associated with highly reliable classifier-based evidence for category representation. Critically, trials associated with greater classifier-based estimates of category representation in temporal and prefrontal regions were associated with a higher probability of subsequent remembering. Finally, consideration of trial-by-trial variance in classifier-based measures of category representation revealed positive correlations between prefrontal and temporal lobe representations, with the strength of these correlations varying as a function of the category of image being encoded. Together, these results indicate that multi-voxel representations of encoded information can provide unique insights into how visual experiences are transformed into episodic memories. PMID:21925190

Evaluation of Secretion Prediction Highlights Differing Approaches Needed for Oomycete and Fungal Effectors.

PubMed

Sperschneider, Jana; Williams, Angela H; Hane, James K; Singh, Karam B; Taylor, Jennifer M

2015-01-01

The steadily increasing number of sequenced fungal and oomycete genomes has enabled detailed studies of how these eukaryotic microbes infect plants and cause devastating losses in food crops. During infection, fungal and oomycete pathogens secrete effector molecules which manipulate host plant cell processes to the pathogen's advantage. Proteinaceous effectors are synthesized intracellularly and must be externalized to interact with host cells. Computational prediction of secreted proteins from genomic sequences is an important technique to narrow down the candidate effector repertoire for subsequent experimental validation. In this study, we benchmark secretion prediction tools on experimentally validated fungal and oomycete effectors. We observe that for a set of fungal SwissProt protein sequences, SignalP 4 and the neural network predictors of SignalP 3 (D-score) and SignalP 2 perform best. For effector prediction in particular, the use of a sensitive method can be desirable to obtain the most complete candidate effector set. We show that the neural network predictors of SignalP 2 and 3, as well as TargetP were the most sensitive tools for fungal effector secretion prediction, whereas the hidden Markov model predictors of SignalP 2 and 3 were the most sensitive tools for oomycete effectors. Thus, previous versions of SignalP retain value for oomycete effector prediction, as the current version, SignalP 4, was unable to reliably predict the signal peptide of the oomycete Crinkler effectors in the test set. Our assessment of subcellular localization predictors shows that cytoplasmic effectors are often predicted as not extracellular. This limits the reliability of secretion predictions that depend on these tools. We present our assessment with a view to informing future pathogenomics studies and suggest revised pipelines for secretion prediction to obtain optimal effector predictions in fungi and oomycetes.

Does Couples’ Communication Predict Marital Satisfaction, or Does Marital Satisfaction Predict Communication?

PubMed Central

Lavner, Justin A.; Karney, Benjamin R.; Bradbury, Thomas N.

2016-01-01

The quality of communication between spouses is widely assumed to affect their subsequent judgments of relationship satisfaction, yet this assumption is rarely tested against the alternative prediction that communication is merely a consequence of spouses’ prior levels of satisfaction. To evaluate these perspectives, newlywed couples’ positivity, negativity, and effectiveness were observed four times at 9-month intervals and these behaviors were examined in relation to corresponding self-reports of relationship satisfaction. Cross-sectionally, relatively satisfied couples engaged in more positive, less negative, and more effective communication. Longitudinally, reliable communication-to-satisfaction and satisfaction-to-communication associations were identified, yet neither pathway was particularly robust. These findings raise important doubts about theories and interventions that prioritize couple communication skills as the key predictor of relationship satisfaction, while raising new questions about other factors that might predict communication and satisfaction and that strengthen or moderate their association. PMID:27152050

Development and validation of a tool to evaluate the quality of medical education websites in pathology

PubMed Central

Alyusuf, Raja H.; Prasad, Kameshwar; Abdel Satir, Ali M.; Abalkhail, Ali A.; Arora, Roopa K.

2013-01-01

Background: The exponential use of the internet as a learning resource coupled with varied quality of many websites, lead to a need to identify suitable websites for teaching purposes. Aim: The aim of this study is to develop and to validate a tool, which evaluates the quality of undergraduate medical educational websites; and apply it to the field of pathology. Methods: A tool was devised through several steps of item generation, reduction, weightage, pilot testing, post-pilot modification of the tool and validating the tool. Tool validation included measurement of inter-observer reliability; and generation of criterion related, construct related and content related validity. The validated tool was subsequently tested by applying it to a population of pathology websites. Results and Discussion: Reliability testing showed a high internal consistency reliability (Cronbach's alpha = 0.92), high inter-observer reliability (Pearson's correlation r = 0.88), intraclass correlation coefficient = 0.85 and κ =0.75. It showed high criterion related, construct related and content related validity. The tool showed moderately high concordance with the gold standard (κ =0.61); 92.2% sensitivity, 67.8% specificity, 75.6% positive predictive value and 88.9% negative predictive value. The validated tool was applied to 278 websites; 29.9% were rated as recommended, 41.0% as recommended with caution and 29.1% as not recommended. Conclusion: A systematic tool was devised to evaluate the quality of websites for medical educational purposes. The tool was shown to yield reliable and valid inferences through its application to pathology websites. PMID:24392243

Toward Predictive Theories of Nuclear Reactions Across the Isotopic Chart: Web Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Escher, J. E.; Blackmon, J.; Elster, C.

Recent years have seen exciting new developments and progress in nuclear structure theory, reaction theory, and experimental techniques, that allow us to move towards a description of exotic systems and environments, setting the stage for new discoveries. The purpose of the 5-week program was to bring together physicists from the low-energy nuclear structure and reaction communities to identify avenues for achieving reliable and predictive descriptions of reactions involving nuclei across the isotopic chart. The 4-day embedded workshop focused on connecting theory developments to experimental advances and data needs for astrophysics and other applications. Nuclear theory must address phenomena from laboratorymore » experiments to stellar environments, from stable nuclei to weakly-bound and exotic isotopes. Expanding the reach of theory to these regimes requires a comprehensive understanding of the reaction mechanisms involved as well as detailed knowledge of nuclear structure. A recurring theme throughout the program was the desire to produce reliable predictions rooted in either ab initio or microscopic approaches. At the same time it was recognized that some applications involving heavy nuclei away from stability, e.g. those involving fi ssion fragments, may need to rely on simple parameterizations of incomplete data for the foreseeable future. The goal here, however, is to subsequently improve and refine the descriptions, moving to phenomenological, then microscopic approaches. There was overarching consensus that future work should also focus on reliable estimates of errors in theoretical descriptions.« less

Transfer of dimensional associability in human contingency learning.

PubMed

Kattner, Florian; Green, C Shawn

2016-01-01

Several studies have demonstrated processing advantages for stimuli that were experienced to be reliable predictors of an outcome relative to other stimuli. The present study tested whether such increases in associability apply at the level of entire stimulus dimensions (as suggested by Sutherland & Mackintosh, 1971). In 4 experiments, participants had to learn associations between Gabor gratings and particular responses. In a first experiment, some gratings were more predictive of the response than other gratings, whereas in 3 subsequent experiments, one stimulus dimension (i.e., either the orientation or spatial frequency of the grating) was more predictive than the other dimension. In contrast to the learned predictiveness of individual gratings (Experiment 1), dimensional predictiveness did not affect the subsequent rate of learning (Experiments 2 and 3), suggesting changes in the associability of specific stimuli, but not of stimulus dimensions. Moreover, greater transfer of predictiveness was found in all experiments when particular stimulus values of the test discrimination did not lie between the previously relevant stimuli. In Experiment 4, an increased learning rate was found for discriminations along the previously predictive dimension compared with a dimension that was indicative of uncertainty, but again the transfer was more pronounced for specific stimuli that were compatible with the previously learned discrimination. Taken together, the results imply that a transfer of associability typically applies to individual stimuli and depends on how the transfer stimuli relate to those stimuli that individuals previously learned to attend. (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Environmental exposure effects on composite materials for commercial aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gibbons, M. N.

1982-01-01

The data base for composite materials' properties as they are affected by the environments encountered in operating conditions, both in flight and at ground terminals is expanded. Absorbed moisture degrades the mechanical properties of graphite/epoxy laminates at elevated temperatures. Since airplane components are frequently exposed to atmospheric moisture, rain, and accumulated water, quantitative data are required to evaluate the amount of fluids absorbed under various environmental conditions and the subsequent effects on material properties. In addition, accelerated laboratory test techniques are developed are reliably capable of predicting long term behavior. An accelerated environmental exposure testing procedure is developed, and experimental results are correlated and compared with analytical results to establish the level of confidence for predicting composite material properties.

Preference assessments in the zoo: Keeper and staff predictions of enrichment preferences across species.

PubMed

Mehrkam, Lindsay R; Dorey, Nicole R

2015-01-01

Environmental enrichment is widely used in the management of zoo animals, and is an essential strategy for increasing the behavioral welfare of these populations. It may be difficult, however, to identify potentially effective enrichment strategies that are also cost-effective and readily available. An animal's preference for a potential enrichment item may be a reliable predictor of whether that individual will reliably interact with that item, and subsequently enable staff to evaluate the effects of that enrichment strategy. The aim of the present study was to assess the utility of preference assessments for identifying potential enrichment items across six different species--each representing a different taxonomic group. In addition, we evaluated the agreement between zoo personnel's predictions of animals' enrichment preferences and stimuli selected via a preference assessment. Five out of six species (nine out of 11 individuals) exhibited clear, systematic preferences for specific stimuli. Similarities in enrichment preferences were observed among all individuals of primates, whereas individuals within ungulate and avian species displayed individual differences in enrichment preferences. Overall, zoo personnel, regardless of experience level, were significantly more accurate at predicting least-preferred stimuli than most-preferred stimuli across species, and tended to make the same predictions for all individuals within a species. Preference assessments may therefore be a useful, efficient husbandry strategy for identifying viable enrichment items at both the individual and species levels. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Improving the reliability of female fertility breeding values using type and milk yield traits that predict energy status in Australian Holstein cattle.

PubMed

González-Recio, O; Haile-Mariam, M; Pryce, J E

2016-01-01

The objectives of this study were (1) to propose changing the selection criteria trait for evaluating fertility in Australia from calving interval to conception rate at d 42 after the beginning of the mating season and (2) to use type traits as early fertility predictors, to increase the reliability of estimated breeding values for fertility. The breeding goal in Australia is conception within 6 wk of the start of the mating season. Currently, the Australian model to predict fertility breeding values (expressed as a linear transformation of calving interval) is a multitrait model that includes calving interval (CVI), lactation length (LL), calving to first service (CFS), first nonreturn rate (FNRR), and conception rate. However, CVI has a lower genetic correlation with the breeding goal (conception within 6 wk of the start of the mating season) than conception rate. Milk yield, type, and fertility data from 164,318 cow sired by 4,766 bulls were used. Principal component analysis and genetic correlation estimates between type and fertility traits were used to select type traits that could subsequently be used in a multitrait analysis. Angularity, foot angle, and pin set were chosen as type traits to include in an index with the traits that are included in the multitrait fertility model: CVI, LL, CFS, FNRR, and conception rate at d 42 (CR42). An index with these 8 traits is expected to achieve an average bull first proof reliability of 0.60 on the breeding objective (conception within 6 wk of the start of the mating season) compared with reliabilities of 0.39 and 0.45 for CR42 only or the current 5-trait Australian model. Subsequently, we used the first eigenvector of a principal component analysis with udder texture, bone quality, angularity, and body condition score to calculate an energy status indicator trait. The inclusion of the energy status indicator trait composite in a multitrait index with CVI, LL, CFS, FNRR, and CR42 achieved a 12-point increase in fertility breeding value reliability (i.e., increased by 30%; up to 0.72 points of reliability), whereas a lower increase in reliability (4 points, i.e., increased by 10%) was obtained by including angularity, foot angle, and pin set in the index. In situations when a limited number of daughters have been phenotyped for CR42, including type data for sires increased reliabilities compared with when type data were omitted. However, sires with more than 80 daughters with CR42 records achieved reliability estimates close to 80% on average, and there did not appear to be a benefit from having daughters with type records. The cost of phenotyping to obtain such reliabilities (assuming a cost of AU$14 per cow with type data and AU$5 per cow with pregnancy diagnosed) is lower if more pregnancy data are collected in preference to type data. That is, efforts to increase the reliability of fertility EBV are most cost effective when directed at obtaining a larger number of pregnancy tests. Copyright © 2016 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Advances in In Vitro and In Silico Tools for Toxicokinetic Dose ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Recent advances in vitro assays, in silico tools, and systems biology approaches provide opportunities for refined mechanistic understanding for chemical safety assessment that will ultimately lead to reduced reliance on animal-based methods. With the U.S. commercial chemical landscape encompassing thousands of chemicals with limited data, safety assessment strategies that reliably predict in vivo systemic exposures and subsequent in vivo effects efficiently are a priority. Quantitative in vitro-in vivo extrapolation (QIVIVE) is a methodology that facilitates the explicit and quantitative application of in vitro experimental data and in silico modeling to predict in vivo system behaviors and can be applied to predict chemical toxicokinetics, toxicodynamics and also population variability. Tiered strategies that incorporate sufficient information to reliably inform the relevant decision context will facilitate acceptance of these alternative data streams for safety assessments. This abstract does not necessarily reflect U.S. EPA policy. This talk will provide an update to an international audience on the state of science being conducted within the EPA’s Office of Research and Development to develop and refine approaches that estimate internal chemical concentrations following a given exposure, known as toxicokinetics. Toxicokinetic approaches hold great potential in their ability to link in vitro activities or toxicities identified during high-throughput screen

On the role of crossmodal prediction in audiovisual emotion perception.

PubMed

Jessen, Sarah; Kotz, Sonja A

2013-01-01

Humans rely on multiple sensory modalities to determine the emotional state of others. In fact, such multisensory perception may be one of the mechanisms explaining the ease and efficiency by which others' emotions are recognized. But how and when exactly do the different modalities interact? One aspect in multisensory perception that has received increasing interest in recent years is the concept of cross-modal prediction. In emotion perception, as in most other settings, visual information precedes the auditory information. Thereby, leading in visual information can facilitate subsequent auditory processing. While this mechanism has often been described in audiovisual speech perception, so far it has not been addressed in audiovisual emotion perception. Based on the current state of the art in (a) cross-modal prediction and (b) multisensory emotion perception research, we propose that it is essential to consider the former in order to fully understand the latter. Focusing on electroencephalographic (EEG) and magnetoencephalographic (MEG) studies, we provide a brief overview of the current research in both fields. In discussing these findings, we suggest that emotional visual information may allow more reliable predicting of auditory information compared to non-emotional visual information. In support of this hypothesis, we present a re-analysis of a previous data set that shows an inverse correlation between the N1 EEG response and the duration of visual emotional, but not non-emotional information. If the assumption that emotional content allows more reliable predicting can be corroborated in future studies, cross-modal prediction is a crucial factor in our understanding of multisensory emotion perception.

An Acoustic Charge Transport Imager for High Definition Television Applications: Reliability Modeling and Parametric Yield Prediction of GaAs Multiple Quantum Well Avalanche Photodiodes. Degree awarded Oct. 1997

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hunt, W. D.; Brennan, K. F.; Summers, C. J.; Yun, Ilgu

1994-01-01

Reliability modeling and parametric yield prediction of GaAs/AlGaAs multiple quantum well (MQW) avalanche photodiodes (APDs), which are of interest as an ultra-low noise image capture mechanism for high definition systems, have been investigated. First, the effect of various doping methods on the reliability of GaAs/AlGaAs multiple quantum well (MQW) avalanche photodiode (APD) structures fabricated by molecular beam epitaxy is investigated. Reliability is examined by accelerated life tests by monitoring dark current and breakdown voltage. Median device lifetime and the activation energy of the degradation mechanism are computed for undoped, doped-barrier, and doped-well APD structures. Lifetimes for each device structure are examined via a statistically designed experiment. Analysis of variance shows that dark-current is affected primarily by device diameter, temperature and stressing time, and breakdown voltage depends on the diameter, stressing time and APD type. It is concluded that the undoped APD has the highest reliability, followed by the doped well and doped barrier devices, respectively. To determine the source of the degradation mechanism for each device structure, failure analysis using the electron-beam induced current method is performed. This analysis reveals some degree of device degradation caused by ionic impurities in the passivation layer, and energy-dispersive spectrometry subsequently verified the presence of ionic sodium as the primary contaminant. However, since all device structures are similarly passivated, sodium contamination alone does not account for the observed variation between the differently doped APDs. This effect is explained by the dopant migration during stressing, which is verified by free carrier concentration measurements using the capacitance-voltage technique.

Implications of the difference between true and predicted breeding values for the study of natural selection and micro-evolution.

PubMed

Postma, E

2006-03-01

The ability to predict individual breeding values in natural populations with known pedigrees has provided a powerful tool to separate phenotypic values into their genetic and environmental components in a nonexperimental setting. This has allowed sophisticated analyses of selection, as well as powerful tests of evolutionary change and differentiation. To date, there has, however, been no evaluation of the reliability or potential limitations of the approach. In this article, I address these gaps. In particular, I emphasize the differences between true and predicted breeding values (PBVs), which as yet have largely been ignored. These differences do, however, have important implications for the interpretation of, firstly, the relationship between PBVs and fitness, and secondly, patterns in PBVs over time. I subsequently present guidelines I believe to be essential in the formulation of the questions addressed in studies using PBVs, and I discuss possibilities for future research.

SOLAR CYCLE 25: ANOTHER MODERATE CYCLE?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cameron, R. H.; Schüssler, M.; Jiang, J., E-mail: cameron@mps.mpg.de

2016-06-01

Surface flux transport simulations for the descending phase of Cycle 24 using random sources (emerging bipolar magnetic regions) with empirically determined scatter of their properties provide a prediction of the axial dipole moment during the upcoming activity minimum together with a realistic uncertainty range. The expectation value for the dipole moment around 2020 (2.5 ± 1.1 G) is comparable to that observed at the end of Cycle 23 (about 2 G). The empirical correlation between the dipole moment during solar minimum and the strength of the subsequent cycle thus suggests that Cycle 25 will be of moderate amplitude, not muchmore » higher than that of the current cycle. However, the intrinsic uncertainty of such predictions resulting from the random scatter of the source properties is considerable and fundamentally limits the reliability with which such predictions can be made before activity minimum is reached.« less

Predictive validity of a selection centre testing non-technical skills for recruitment to training in anaesthesia.

PubMed

Gale, T C E; Roberts, M J; Sice, P J; Langton, J A; Patterson, F C; Carr, A S; Anderson, I R; Lam, W H; Davies, P R F

2010-11-01

Assessment centres are an accepted method of recruitment in industry and are gaining popularity within medicine. We describe the development and validation of a selection centre for recruitment to speciality training in anaesthesia based on an assessment centre model incorporating the rating of candidate's non-technical skills. Expert consensus identified non-technical skills suitable for assessment at the point of selection. Four stations-structured interview, portfolio review, presentation, and simulation-were developed, the latter two being realistic scenarios of work-related tasks. Evaluation of the selection centre focused on applicant and assessor feedback ratings, inter-rater agreement, and internal consistency reliability coefficients. Predictive validity was sought via correlations of selection centre scores with subsequent workplace-based ratings of appointed trainees. Two hundred and twenty-four candidates were assessed over two consecutive annual recruitment rounds; 68 were appointed and followed up during training. Candidates and assessors demonstrated strong approval of the selection centre with more than 70% of ratings 'good' or 'excellent'. Mean inter-rater agreement coefficients ranged from 0.62 to 0.77 and internal consistency reliability of the selection centre score was high (Cronbach's α=0.88-0.91). The overall selection centre score was a good predictor of workplace performance during the first year of appointment. An assessment centre model based on the rating of non-technical skills can produce a reliable and valid selection tool for recruitment to speciality training in anaesthesia. Early results on predictive validity are encouraging and justify further development and evaluation.

Structure and Early Soot Oxidation Properties of Laminar Diffusion Flames

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

El-Leathy, A. M.; Xu, F.; Faeth, G. M.

2001-01-01

Soot is an important unsolved problem of combustion science because it is present in most hydrocarbon-fueled flames and current understanding of the reactive and physical properties of soot in flame environments is limited. This lack of understanding affects progress toward developing reliable predictions of flame radiation properties, reliable predictions of flame pollutant emission properties and reliable methods of computational combustion, among others. Motivated by these observations, the present investigation extended past studies of soot formation in this laboratory, to consider soot oxidation in laminar diffusion flames using similar methods. Early work showed that O2 was responsible for soot oxidation in high temperature O2-rich environments. Subsequent work in high temperature flame environments having small O2 concentrations, however, showed that soot oxidation rates substantially exceeded estimates based on the classical O2 oxidation rates of Nagle and Strickland-Constable and suggests that radicals such as O and OH might be strong contributors to soot oxidation for such conditions. Neoh et al. subsequently made observations in premixed flames, supported by later work, that showed that OH was responsible for soot oxidation at these conditions with a very reasonable collision efficiency of 0.13. Subsequent studies in diffusion flames, however, were not in agreement with the premixed flame studies: they agreed that OH played a dominant role in soot oxidation in flames, but found collision efficiencies that varied with flame conditions and were not in good agreement with each other or with Neoh et al. One explanation for these discrepancies is that optical scattering and extinction properties were used to infer soot structure properties for the studies that have not been very successful for representing the optical properties of soot. Whatever the source of the problem, however, these differences among observations of soot oxidation in premixed and diffusion flames clearly must be resolved. Motivated by these findings, the present study undertook measurements of soot and flame properties within the soot oxidation region of some typical laminar diffusion flames and exploited the new measurements to identify soot oxidation mechanisms for these conditions. Present considerations were limited to the early stages of soot oxidation (carbon consumption less than 70%) where reactions at the surface of primary soot particles dominate the process, rather than the later stages when particle porosity and internal particle oxidation become important as discussed by Neoh et al.

[Reliability of endocervical curettage after conservative treatment of intraepithelial neoplasia of the cervix].

PubMed

Lecointre, L; Akladios, C-Y; Averous, G; Lefebvre, F; Baulon, E; Thoma, V; Fender, M; Baldauf, J-J

2015-02-01

To evaluate the reliability of endocervical curettage (ECC) in patients previously treated for CIN. Retrospective analysis of data from 85 patients between January 1985 and December 2011 who received an ECC during monitoring after treatment of CIN. The reliability of the ECC was evaluated by comparison with the final histological analysis of the surgical specimen or the data for subsequent cyto-colpo-histological follow-up. Patients were referred to colposcopy either within the immediate post-treatment monitoring (n=42), meanly 9.7±5.3 months after treatment, or if cytological abnormalities were detected during long-term monitoring, meanly 78.6±52.4 months after treatment. Colposcopy was unsatisfactory in 75.3% of patients and normal colposcopic findings were found in 80% of patients. A perfect agreement between the ECC and the endocervical final diagnosis was noted in 68 patients (80%). For the diagnosis of severe cervical lesions (CIN 2+) ECC had a sensitivity of 86.2% (68.3-96.1), a specificity of 94.6% (85.1-98.9) and positive and negative predictive values of 61.4% (47.6-74.0) and 93% (83.0-98.1), respectively. The high sensitivity and negative predictive value of ECC for the diagnosis of severe post-therapeutic endocervical lesions avoid iterative treatment without increasing the risk of progression of a lesion to cancer. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Cultivating cohort studies for observational translational research.

PubMed

Ransohoff, David F

2013-04-01

"Discovery" research about molecular markers for diagnosis, prognosis, or prediction of response to therapy has frequently produced results that were not reproducible in subsequent studies. What are the reasons, and can observational cohorts be cultivated to provide strong and reliable answers to those questions? Experimental Selected examples are used to illustrate: (i) what features of research design provide strength and reliability in observational studies about markers of diagnosis, prognosis, and response to therapy? (ii) How can those design features be cultivated in existing observational cohorts, for example, within randomized controlled clinical trial (RCT), other existing observational research studies, or practice settings like health maintenance organization (HMOs)? Examples include a study of RNA expression profiles of tumor tissue to predict prognosis of breast cancer, a study of serum proteomics profiles to diagnose ovarian cancer, and a study of stool-based DNA assays to screen for colon cancer. Strengths and weaknesses of observational study design features are discussed, along with lessons about how features that help assure strength might be "cultivated" in the future. By considering these examples and others, it may be possible to develop a process of "cultivating cohorts" in ongoing RCTs, observational cohort studies, and practice settings like HMOs that have strong features of study design. Such an effort could produce sources of data and specimens to reliably answer questions about the use of molecular markers in diagnosis, prognosis, and response to therapy.

Assessment of tinnitus-related impairments and disabilities using the German THI-12: sensitivity and stability of the scale over time.

PubMed

Görtelmeyer, Roman; Schmidt, Jürgen; Suckfüll, Markus; Jastreboff, Pawel; Gebauer, Alexander; Krüger, Hagen; Wittmann, Werner

2011-08-01

To evaluate the reliability, dimensionality, predictive validity, construct validity, and sensitivity to change of the THI-12 total and sub-scales as diagnostic aids to describe and quantify tinnitus-evoked reactions and evaluate treatment efficacy. Explorative analysis of the German tinnitus handicap inventory (THI-12) to assess potential sensitivity to tinnitus therapy in placebo-controlled randomized studies. Correlation analysis, including Cronbach's coefficient α and explorative common factor analysis (EFA), was conducted within and between assessments to demonstrate the construct validity, dimensionality, and factorial structure of the THI-12. N = 618 patients suffering from subjective tinnitus who were to be screened to participate in a randomized, placebo-controlled, 16-week, longitudinal study. The THI-12 can reliably diagnose tinnitus-related impairments and disabilities and assess changes over time. The test-retest coefficient for neighboured visits was r > 0.69, the internal consistency of the THI-12 total score was α ≤ 0.79 and α ≤ 0.89 at subsequent visits. Predictability of THI-12 total score and overall variance increased with successive measurements. The three-factorial structure allowed for evaluation of factors that affect aspects of patients' health-related quality of life. The THI-12, with its three-factorial structure, is a simple, reliable, and valid instrument for the diagnosis and assessment of tinnitus and associated impairment over time.

Systems analysis of apoptosis protein expression allows the case-specific prediction of cell death responsiveness of melanoma cells

PubMed Central

Passante, E; Würstle, M L; Hellwig, C T; Leverkus, M; Rehm, M

2013-01-01

Many cancer entities and their associated cell line models are highly heterogeneous in their responsiveness to apoptosis inducers and, despite a detailed understanding of the underlying signaling networks, cell death susceptibility currently cannot be predicted reliably from protein expression profiles. Here, we demonstrate that an integration of quantitative apoptosis protein expression data with pathway knowledge can predict the cell death responsiveness of melanoma cell lines. By a total of 612 measurements, we determined the absolute expression (nM) of 17 core apoptosis regulators in a panel of 11 melanoma cell lines, and enriched these data with systems-level information on apoptosis pathway topology. By applying multivariate statistical analysis and multi-dimensional pattern recognition algorithms, the responsiveness of individual cell lines to tumor necrosis factor-related apoptosis-inducing ligand (TRAIL) or dacarbazine (DTIC) could be predicted with very high accuracy (91 and 82% correct predictions), and the most effective treatment option for individual cell lines could be pre-determined in silico. In contrast, cell death responsiveness was poorly predicted when not taking knowledge on protein–protein interactions into account (55 and 36% correct predictions). We also generated mathematical predictions on whether anti-apoptotic Bcl-2 family members or x-linked inhibitor of apoptosis protein (XIAP) can be targeted to enhance TRAIL responsiveness in individual cell lines. Subsequent experiments, making use of pharmacological Bcl-2/Bcl-xL inhibition or siRNA-based XIAP depletion, confirmed the accuracy of these predictions. We therefore demonstrate that cell death responsiveness to TRAIL or DTIC can be predicted reliably in a large number of melanoma cell lines when investigating expression patterns of apoptosis regulators in the context of their network-level interplay. The capacity to predict responsiveness at the cellular level may contribute to personalizing anti-cancer treatments in the future. PMID:23933815

Unrealistic optimism in advice taking: A computational account.

PubMed

Leong, Yuan Chang; Zaki, Jamil

2018-02-01

Expert advisors often make surprisingly inaccurate predictions about the future, yet people heed their suggestions nonetheless. Here we provide a novel, computational account of this unrealistic optimism in advice taking. Across 3 studies, participants observed as advisors predicted the performance of a stock. Advisors varied in their accuracy, performing reliably above, at, or below chance. Despite repeated feedback, participants exhibited inflated perceptions of advisors' accuracy, and reliably "bet" on advisors' predictions more than their performance warranted. Participants' decisions tightly tracked a computational model that makes 2 assumptions: (a) people hold optimistic initial expectations about advisors, and (b) people preferentially incorporate information that adheres to their expectations when learning about advisors. Consistent with model predictions, explicitly manipulating participants' initial expectations altered their optimism bias and subsequent advice-taking. With well-calibrated initial expectations, participants no longer exhibited an optimism bias. We then explored crowdsourced ratings as a strategy to curb unrealistic optimism in advisors. Star ratings for each advisor were collected from an initial group of participants, which were then shown to a second group of participants. Instead of calibrating expectations, these ratings propagated and exaggerated the unrealistic optimism. Our results provide a computational account of the cognitive processes underlying inflated perceptions of expertise, and explore the boundary conditions under which they occur. We discuss the adaptive value of this optimism bias, and how our account can be extended to explain unrealistic optimism in other domains. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

EM calibration based on Post OPC layout analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sreedhar, Aswin; Kundu, Sandip

2010-03-01

Design for Manufacturability (DFM) involves changes to the design and CAD tools to help increase pattern printability and improve process control. Design for Reliability (DFR) performs the same to improve reliability of devices from failures such as Electromigration (EM), gate-oxide break down, hot carrier injection (HCI), Negative Bias Temperature Insatiability (NBTI) and mechanical stress effects. Electromigration (EM) occurs due to migration or displacement of atoms as a result of the movement of electrons through a conducting medium. The rate of migration determines the Mean Time to Failure (MTTF) which is modeled as a function of temperature and current density. The model itself is calibrated through failure analysis (FA) of parts that are deemed to have failed due to EM against design parameters such as linewidth. Reliability Verification (RV) of a design involves verifying that every conducting line in a design meets certain MTTF threshold. In order to perform RV, current density for each wire must be computed. Current itself is a function of the parasitics that are determined through RC extraction. The standard practice is to perform the RC extraction and current density calculation on drawn, pre-OPC layouts. If a wire fails to meet threshold for MTTF, it may be resized. Subsequently, mask preparation steps such as OPC and PSM introduce extra features such as SRAFs, jogs,hammerheads and serifs that change their resistance, capacitance and current density values. Hence, calibrating EM model based on pre-OPC layouts will lead to different results compared to post-OPC layouts. In this work, we compare EM model calibration and reliability check based on drawn layout versus predicted layout, where the drawn layout is pre-OPC layout and predicted layout is based on litho simulation of post-OPC layout. Results show significant divergence between these two approaches, making a case for methodology based on predicted layout.

RANdom SAmple Consensus (RANSAC) algorithm for material-informatics: application to photovoltaic solar cells.

PubMed

Kaspi, Omer; Yosipof, Abraham; Senderowitz, Hanoch

2017-06-06

An important aspect of chemoinformatics and material-informatics is the usage of machine learning algorithms to build Quantitative Structure Activity Relationship (QSAR) models. The RANdom SAmple Consensus (RANSAC) algorithm is a predictive modeling tool widely used in the image processing field for cleaning datasets from noise. RANSAC could be used as a "one stop shop" algorithm for developing and validating QSAR models, performing outlier removal, descriptors selection, model development and predictions for test set samples using applicability domain. For "future" predictions (i.e., for samples not included in the original test set) RANSAC provides a statistical estimate for the probability of obtaining reliable predictions, i.e., predictions within a pre-defined number of standard deviations from the true values. In this work we describe the first application of RNASAC in material informatics, focusing on the analysis of solar cells. We demonstrate that for three datasets representing different metal oxide (MO) based solar cell libraries RANSAC-derived models select descriptors previously shown to correlate with key photovoltaic properties and lead to good predictive statistics for these properties. These models were subsequently used to predict the properties of virtual solar cells libraries highlighting interesting dependencies of PV properties on MO compositions.

Predicting bone strength with ultrasonic guided waves

PubMed Central

Bochud, Nicolas; Vallet, Quentin; Minonzio, Jean-Gabriel; Laugier, Pascal

2017-01-01

Recent bone quantitative ultrasound approaches exploit the multimode waveguide response of long bones for assessing properties such as cortical thickness and stiffness. Clinical applications remain, however, challenging, as the impact of soft tissue on guided waves characteristics is not fully understood yet. In particular, it must be clarified whether soft tissue must be incorporated in waveguide models needed to infer reliable cortical bone properties. We hypothesize that an inverse procedure using a free plate model can be applied to retrieve the thickness and stiffness of cortical bone from experimental data. This approach is first validated on a series of laboratory-controlled measurements performed on assemblies of bone- and soft tissue mimicking phantoms and then on in vivo measurements. The accuracy of the estimates is evaluated by comparison with reference values. To further support our hypothesis, these estimates are subsequently inserted into a bilayer model to test its accuracy. Our results show that the free plate model allows retrieving reliable waveguide properties, despite the presence of soft tissue. They also suggest that the more sophisticated bilayer model, although it is more precise to predict experimental data in the forward problem, could turn out to be hardly manageable for solving the inverse problem. PMID:28256568

Predicting interatrial septum rotation: is the position of the heart or the direction of the coronary sinus reliable?: Implications for interventional electrophysiologists from CT studies.

PubMed

Sun, Huan; Wang, Yanjing; Zhang, Zhenming; Liu, Lin; Yang, Ping

2015-04-01

Determining the location of the interatrial septum (IAS) is crucial for cardiac electrophysiology procedures. Empirical methods of predicting IAS orientation depend on anatomical landmarks, including determining it from the direction of the coronary sinus (CS) and the position of the heart (e.g., vertical or transverse). However, the reliability of these methods for predicting IAS rotation warrants further study. The purpose of this study was to assess the clinical utility of the relationship between IAS orientation, CS direction, and heart position. Data from 115 patients undergoing coronary computed tomography (CT) angiography with no evidence of cardiac structural disease were collected and analyzed. Angulations describing IAS orientation, CS direction, and heart position were measured. The relationships between IAS orientation and each of the other two parameters were subsequently analyzed. The mean angulations for IAS orientation, CS direction, and heart position were 36.8 ± 7.3° (range 19.1-53.6), 37.7 ± 6.6° (range 21.3-50.1), and 37.1 ± 8.3° (range 19.2-61.0), respectively. We found a significant correlation between IAS orientation and CS direction (r = 0.928; P < 0.01), and the linear regression equation was drawn: IAS orientation = 2.01 + 1.03 × CS direction (r(2) = 0.86). No correlation was observed between IAS orientation and heart position (P = 0.86). In patients without structural heart disease, CS direction may be a reliable predictor of IAS orientation, and may serve as a helpful reference for clinicians during invasive electrophysiological procedures. Further study is warranted to clarify the relationship between IAS orientation and heart position. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Impact of relationships between test and training animals and among training animals on reliability of genomic prediction.

PubMed

Wu, X; Lund, M S; Sun, D; Zhang, Q; Su, G

2015-10-01

One of the factors affecting the reliability of genomic prediction is the relationship among the animals of interest. This study investigated the reliability of genomic prediction in various scenarios with regard to the relationship between test and training animals, and among animals within the training data set. Different training data sets were generated from EuroGenomics data and a group of Nordic Holstein bulls (born in 2005 and afterwards) as a common test data set. Genomic breeding values were predicted using a genomic best linear unbiased prediction model and a Bayesian mixture model. The results showed that a closer relationship between test and training animals led to a higher reliability of genomic predictions for the test animals, while a closer relationship among training animals resulted in a lower reliability. In addition, the Bayesian mixture model in general led to a slightly higher reliability of genomic prediction, especially for the scenario of distant relationships between training and test animals. Therefore, to prevent a decrease in reliability, constant updates of the training population with animals from more recent generations are required. Moreover, a training population consisting of less-related animals is favourable for reliability of genomic prediction. © 2015 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

A Bayesian Framework for Reliability Analysis of Spacecraft Deployments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Evans, John W.; Gallo, Luis; Kaminsky, Mark

2012-01-01

Deployable subsystems are essential to mission success of most spacecraft. These subsystems enable critical functions including power, communications and thermal control. The loss of any of these functions will generally result in loss of the mission. These subsystems and their components often consist of unique designs and applications for which various standardized data sources are not applicable for estimating reliability and for assessing risks. In this study, a two stage sequential Bayesian framework for reliability estimation of spacecraft deployment was developed for this purpose. This process was then applied to the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) Sunshield subsystem, a unique design intended for thermal control of the Optical Telescope Element. Initially, detailed studies of NASA deployment history, "heritage information", were conducted, extending over 45 years of spacecraft launches. This information was then coupled to a non-informative prior and a binomial likelihood function to create a posterior distribution for deployments of various subsystems uSing Monte Carlo Markov Chain sampling. Select distributions were then coupled to a subsequent analysis, using test data and anomaly occurrences on successive ground test deployments of scale model test articles of JWST hardware, to update the NASA heritage data. This allowed for a realistic prediction for the reliability of the complex Sunshield deployment, with credibility limits, within this two stage Bayesian framework.

Suboptimal choice in rats: incentive salience attribution promotes maladaptive decision-making

PubMed Central

Chow, Jonathan J; Smith, Aaron P; Wilson, A George; Zentall, Thomas R; Beckmann, Joshua S

2016-01-01

Stimuli that are more predictive of subsequent reward also function as better conditioned reinforcers. Moreover, stimuli attributed with incentive salience function as more robust conditioned reinforcers. Some theories have suggested that conditioned reinforcement plays an important role in promoting suboptimal choice behavior, like gambling. The present experiments examined how different stimuli, those attributed with incentive salience versus those without, can function in tandem with stimulus-reward predictive utility to promote maladaptive decision-making in rats. One group of rats had lights associated with goal-tracking as the reward-predictive stimuli and another had levers associated with sign-tracking as the reward-predictive stimuli. All rats were first trained on a choice procedure in which the expected value across both alternatives was equivalent but differed in their stimulus-reward predictive utility. Next, the expected value across both alternatives was systematically changed so that the alternative with greater stimulus-reward predictive utility was suboptimal in regard to primary reinforcement. The results demonstrate that in order to obtain suboptimal choice behavior, incentive salience alongside strong stimulus-reward predictive utility may be necessary; thus, maladaptive decision-making can be driven more by the value attributed to stimuli imbued with incentive salience that reliably predict a reward rather than the reward itself. PMID:27993692

Suboptimal choice in rats: Incentive salience attribution promotes maladaptive decision-making.

PubMed

Chow, Jonathan J; Smith, Aaron P; Wilson, A George; Zentall, Thomas R; Beckmann, Joshua S

2017-03-01

Stimuli that are more predictive of subsequent reward also function as better conditioned reinforcers. Moreover, stimuli attributed with incentive salience function as more robust conditioned reinforcers. Some theories have suggested that conditioned reinforcement plays an important role in promoting suboptimal choice behavior, like gambling. The present experiments examined how different stimuli, those attributed with incentive salience versus those without, can function in tandem with stimulus-reward predictive utility to promote maladaptive decision-making in rats. One group of rats had lights associated with goal-tracking as the reward-predictive stimuli and another had levers associated with sign-tracking as the reward-predictive stimuli. All rats were first trained on a choice procedure in which the expected value across both alternatives was equivalent but differed in their stimulus-reward predictive utility. Next, the expected value across both alternatives was systematically changed so that the alternative with greater stimulus-reward predictive utility was suboptimal in regard to primary reinforcement. The results demonstrate that in order to obtain suboptimal choice behavior, incentive salience alongside strong stimulus-reward predictive utility may be necessary; thus, maladaptive decision-making can be driven more by the value attributed to stimuli imbued with incentive salience that reliably predict a reward rather than the reward itself. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Reliability Problems of the Datum: Solutions for Questionnaire Responses.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bastick, Tony

Questionnaires often ask for estimates, and these estimates are given with different reliabilities. It is difficult to know the different reliabilities of single estimates and to take these into account in subsequent analyses. This paper contains a practical example to show that not taking the reliability of different responses into account can…

A study of fault prediction and reliability assessment in the SEL environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Basili, Victor R.; Patnaik, Debabrata

1986-01-01

An empirical study on estimation and prediction of faults, prediction of fault detection and correction effort, and reliability assessment in the Software Engineering Laboratory environment (SEL) is presented. Fault estimation using empirical relationships and fault prediction using curve fitting method are investigated. Relationships between debugging efforts (fault detection and correction effort) in different test phases are provided, in order to make an early estimate of future debugging effort. This study concludes with the fault analysis, application of a reliability model, and analysis of a normalized metric for reliability assessment and reliability monitoring during development of software.

Increased serum brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) is predictive of cocaine relapse outcomes: A prospective study

PubMed Central

D’Sa, Carrol; Fox, Helen C.; Hong, Adam K.; Dileone, Ralph J.; Sinha, Rajita

2011-01-01

Background Cocaine dependence is associated with high relapse rates but few biological markers associated with relapse outcomes have been identified. Extending preclinical research showing a role for central Brain Derived Neurotrophic Factor (BDNF) in cocaine seeking, we examined whether serum BDNF is altered in abstinent, early recovering, cocaine-dependent individuals and if it is predictive of subsequent relapse risk. Methods Serum samples were collected across three consecutive mornings from 35 treatment-engaged, 3 week abstinent cocaine-dependent inpatients (17M/18F) and 34 demographically matched hospitalized healthy control participants (17M/17F). Cocaine dependent individuals were prospectively followed on days 14, 30 and 90 post-treatment discharge to assess cocaine relapse outcomes. Time to cocaine relapse, number of days of cocaine use (frequency), and amount of cocaine use (quantity) were the main outcome measures. Results High correlations in serum BDNF across days indicated reliable and stable serum BDNF measurements. Significantly higher mean serum BDNF levels were observed for the cocaine-dependent patients compared to healthy control participants (p<.001). Higher serum BDNF levels predicted shorter subsequent time to cocaine relapse (hazard ratio: HR: 1.09, p<.05), greater number of days (p<.05) and higher total amounts of cocaine used (p = .05). Conclusions High serum BDNF levels in recovering cocaine-dependent individuals are predictive of future cocaine relapse outcomes and may represent a clinically relevant marker of relapse risk. These data suggest that serum BDNF levels may provide an indication of relapse risk during early recovery from cocaine dependence. PMID:21741029

Predicting risky choices from brain activity patterns

PubMed Central

Helfinstein, Sarah M.; Schonberg, Tom; Congdon, Eliza; Karlsgodt, Katherine H.; Mumford, Jeanette A.; Sabb, Fred W.; Cannon, Tyrone D.; London, Edythe D.; Bilder, Robert M.; Poldrack, Russell A.

2014-01-01

Previous research has implicated a large network of brain regions in the processing of risk during decision making. However, it has not yet been determined if activity in these regions is predictive of choices on future risky decisions. Here, we examined functional MRI data from a large sample of healthy subjects performing a naturalistic risk-taking task and used a classification analysis approach to predict whether individuals would choose risky or safe options on upcoming trials. We were able to predict choice category successfully in 71.8% of cases. Searchlight analysis revealed a network of brain regions where activity patterns were reliably predictive of subsequent risk-taking behavior, including a number of regions known to play a role in control processes. Searchlights with significant predictive accuracy were primarily located in regions more active when preparing to avoid a risk than when preparing to engage in one, suggesting that risk taking may be due, in part, to a failure of the control systems necessary to initiate a safe choice. Additional analyses revealed that subject choice can be successfully predicted with minimal decrements in accuracy using highly condensed data, suggesting that information relevant for risky choice behavior is encoded in coarse global patterns of activation as well as within highly local activation within searchlights. PMID:24550270

On various metrics used for validation of predictive QSAR models with applications in virtual screening and focused library design.

PubMed

Roy, Kunal; Mitra, Indrani

2011-07-01

Quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSARs) have important applications in drug discovery research, environmental fate modeling, property prediction, etc. Validation has been recognized as a very important step for QSAR model development. As one of the important objectives of QSAR modeling is to predict activity/property/toxicity of new chemicals falling within the domain of applicability of the developed models and QSARs are being used for regulatory decisions, checking reliability of the models and confidence of their predictions is a very important aspect, which can be judged during the validation process. One prime application of a statistically significant QSAR model is virtual screening for molecules with improved potency based on the pharmacophoric features and the descriptors appearing in the QSAR model. Validated QSAR models may also be utilized for design of focused libraries which may be subsequently screened for the selection of hits. The present review focuses on various metrics used for validation of predictive QSAR models together with an overview of the application of QSAR models in the fields of virtual screening and focused library design for diverse series of compounds with citation of some recent examples.

Numerical Analysis of Incipient Separation on 53 Deg Swept Diamond Wing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frink, Neal T.

2015-01-01

A systematic analysis of incipient separation and subsequent vortex formation from moderately swept blunt leading edges is presented for a 53 deg swept diamond wing. This work contributes to a collective body of knowledge generated within the NATO/STO AVT-183 Task Group titled 'Reliable Prediction of Separated Flow Onset and Progression for Air and Sea Vehicles'. The objective is to extract insights from the experimentally measured and numerically computed flow fields that might enable turbulence experts to further improve their models for predicting swept blunt leading-edge flow separation. Details of vortex formation are inferred from numerical solutions after establishing a good correlation of the global flow field and surface pressure distributions between wind tunnel measurements and computed flow solutions. From this, significant and sometimes surprising insights into the nature of incipient separation and part-span vortex formation are derived from the wealth of information available in the computational solutions.

The Managing Emergencies in Paediatric Anaesthesia global rating scale is a reliable tool for simulation-based assessment in pediatric anesthesia crisis management.

PubMed

Everett, Tobias C; Ng, Elaine; Power, Daniel; Marsh, Christopher; Tolchard, Stephen; Shadrina, Anna; Bould, Matthew D

2013-12-01

The use of simulation-based assessments for high-stakes physician examinations remains controversial. The Managing Emergencies in Paediatric Anaesthesia course uses simulation to teach evidence-based management of anesthesia crises to trainee anesthetists in the United Kingdom (UK) and Canada. In this study, we investigated the feasibility and reliability of custom-designed scenario-specific performance checklists and a global rating scale (GRS) assessing readiness for independent practice. After research ethics board approval, subjects were videoed managing simulated pediatric anesthesia crises in a single Canadian teaching hospital. Each subject was randomized to two of six different scenarios. All 60 scenarios were subsequently rated by four blinded raters (two in the UK, two in Canada) using the checklists and GRS. The actual and predicted reliability of the tools was calculated for different numbers of raters using the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) and the Spearman-Brown prophecy formula. Average measures ICCs ranged from 'substantial' to 'near perfect' (P ≤ 0.001). The reliability of the checklists and the GRS was similar. Single measures ICCs showed more variability than average measures ICC. At least two raters would be required to achieve acceptable reliability. We have established the reliability of a GRS to assess the management of simulated crisis scenarios in pediatric anesthesia, and this tool is feasible within the setting of a research study. The global rating scale allows raters to make a judgement regarding a participant's readiness for independent practice. These tools may be used in the future research examining simulation-based assessment. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Determining Criteria to Predict Repeatability of Performance in Older Adults: Using Coefficients of Variation for Strength and Functional Measures.

PubMed

Raj, Isaac Selva; Bird, Stephen R; Westfold, Ben A; Shield, Anthony J

2017-01-01

Reliable measures of muscle strength and functional capacity in older adults are essential. The aim of this study was to determine whether coefficients of variation (CVs) of individuals obtained at the first session can infer repeatability of performance in a subsequent session. Forty-eight healthy older adults (mean age 68.6 ± 6.1 years; age range 60-80 years) completed two assessment sessions, and on each occasion undertook: dynamometry for isometric and isokinetic quadriceps strength, 6 meter fast walk (6MFWT), timed up and go (TUG), stair climb and descent, and vertical jump. Significant linear relationships were observed between CVs in session 1 and the percentage difference between sessions 1 and 2 for torque at 60, 120, 240 and 360°/s, 6MFWT, TUG, stair climb, and stair descent. The results of this study could be used to establish criteria for determining an acceptably reliable performance in strength and functional tests.

Applying contact to individual silicon nanowires using a dielectrophoresis (DEP)-based technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leiterer, Christian; Broenstrup, Gerald; Jahr, Norbert; Urban, Matthias; Arnold, Cornelia; Christiansen, Silke; Fritzsche, Wolfgang

2013-05-01

One major challenge for the technological use of nanostructures is the control of their electrical and optoelectronic properties. For that purpose, extensive research into the electrical characterization and therefore a fast and reliable way of contacting these structures are needed. Here, we report on a new, dielectrophoresis (DEP)-based technique, which enables to apply sufficient and reliable contact to individual nanostructures, like semiconducting nanowires (NW), easily and without the need for lithography. The DEP contacting technique presented in this article can be done without high-tech equipment and monitored in situ with an optical microscope. In the presented experiments, individual SiNWs are trapped and subsequently welded between two photolithographically pre-patterned electrodes by applying varying AC voltages to the electrodes. To proof the quality of these contacts, I-V curves, photoresponse and photoconductivity of a single SiNW were measured. Furthermore, the measured photoconductivity in dependence on the wavelength of illuminated light and was compared with calculations predicting the absorption spectra of an individual SiNW.

Neural Overlap in Item Representations Across Episodes Impairs Context Memory.

PubMed

Kim, Ghootae; Norman, Kenneth A; Turk-Browne, Nicholas B

2018-06-12

We frequently encounter the same item in different contexts, and when that happens, memories of earlier encounters can get reactivated. We examined how existing memories are changed as a result of such reactivation. We hypothesized that when an item's initial and subsequent neural representations overlap, this allows the initial item to become associated with novel contextual information, interfering with later retrieval of the initial context. Specifically, we predicted a negative relationship between representational similarity across repeated experiences of an item and subsequent source memory for the initial context. We tested this hypothesis in an fMRI study, in which objects were presented multiple times during different tasks. We measured the similarity of the neural patterns in lateral occipital cortex that were elicited by the first and second presentations of objects, and related this neural overlap score to subsequent source memory. Consistent with our hypothesis, greater item-specific pattern similarity was linked to worse source memory for the initial task. In contrast, greater reactivation of the initial context was associated with better source memory. Our findings suggest that the influence of novel experiences on an existing context memory depends on how reliably a shared component (i.e., item) is represented across these episodes.

Modeling and simulation of reliability of unmanned intelligent vehicles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, Harpreet; Dixit, Arati M.; Mustapha, Adam; Singh, Kuldip; Aggarwal, K. K.; Gerhart, Grant R.

2008-04-01

Unmanned ground vehicles have a large number of scientific, military and commercial applications. A convoy of such vehicles can have collaboration and coordination. For the movement of such a convoy, it is important to predict the reliability of the system. A number of approaches are available in literature which describes the techniques for determining the reliability of the system. Graph theoretic approaches are popular in determining terminal reliability and system reliability. In this paper we propose to exploit Fuzzy and Neuro-Fuzzy approaches for predicting the node and branch reliability of the system while Boolean algebra approaches are used to determine terminal reliability and system reliability. Hence a combination of intelligent approaches like Fuzzy, Neuro-Fuzzy and Boolean approaches is used to predict the overall system reliability of a convoy of vehicles. The node reliabilities may correspond to the collaboration of vehicles while branch reliabilities will determine the terminal reliabilities between different nodes. An algorithm is proposed for determining the system reliabilities of a convoy of vehicles. The simulation of the overall system is proposed. Such simulation should be helpful to the commander to take an appropriate action depending on the predicted reliability in different terrain and environmental conditions. It is hoped that results of this paper will lead to more important techniques to have a reliable convoy of vehicles in a battlefield.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Puskar, Joseph David; Quintana, Michael A.; Sorensen, Neil Robert

A program is underway at Sandia National Laboratories to predict long-term reliability of photovoltaic (PV) systems. The vehicle for the reliability predictions is a Reliability Block Diagram (RBD), which models system behavior. Because this model is based mainly on field failure and repair times, it can be used to predict current reliability, but it cannot currently be used to accurately predict lifetime. In order to be truly predictive, physics-informed degradation processes and failure mechanisms need to be included in the model. This paper describes accelerated life testing of metal foil tapes used in thin-film PV modules, and how tape jointmore » degradation, a possible failure mode, can be incorporated into the model.« less

Developing Items to Measure Theory of Planned Behavior Constructs for Opioid Administration for Children: Pilot Testing.

PubMed

Vincent, Catherine; Riley, Barth B; Wilkie, Diana J

2015-12-01

The Theory of Planned Behavior (TpB) is useful to direct nursing research aimed at behavior change. As proposed in the TpB, individuals' attitudes, perceived norms, and perceived behavior control predict their intentions to perform a behavior and subsequently predict their actual performance of the behavior. Our purpose was to apply Fishbein and Ajzen's guidelines to begin development of a valid and reliable instrument for pediatric nurses' attitudes, perceived norms, perceived behavior control, and intentions to administer PRN opioid analgesics when hospitalized children self-report moderate to severe pain. Following Fishbein and Ajzen's directions, we were able to define the behavior of interest and specify the research population, formulate items for direct measures, elicit salient beliefs shared by our target population and formulate items for indirect measures, and prepare and test our questionnaire. For the pilot testing of internal consistency of measurement items, Cronbach alphas were between 0.60 and 0.90 for all constructs. Test-retest reliability correlations ranged from 0.63 to 0.90. Following Fishbein and Ajzen's guidelines was a feasible and organized approach for instrument development. In these early stages, we demonstrated good reliability for most subscales, showing promise for the instrument and its use in pain management research. Better understanding of the TpB constructs will facilitate the development of interventions targeted toward nurses' attitudes, perceived norms, and/or perceived behavior control to ultimately improve their pain behaviors toward reducing pain for vulnerable children. Copyright © 2015 American Society for Pain Management Nursing. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predicting Cost/Reliability/Maintainability of Advanced General Aviation Avionics Equipment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davis, M. R.; Kamins, M.; Mooz, W. E.

1978-01-01

A methodology is provided for assisting NASA in estimating the cost, reliability, and maintenance (CRM) requirements for general avionics equipment operating in the 1980's. Practical problems of predicting these factors are examined. The usefulness and short comings of different approaches for modeling coast and reliability estimates are discussed together with special problems caused by the lack of historical data on the cost of maintaining general aviation avionics. Suggestions are offered on how NASA might proceed in assessing cost reliability CRM implications in the absence of reliable generalized predictive models.

Test-Retest Reliability and Predictive Validity of the Implicit Association Test in Children

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rae, James R.; Olson, Kristina R.

2018-01-01

The Implicit Association Test (IAT) is increasingly used in developmental research despite minimal evidence of whether children's IAT scores are reliable across time or predictive of behavior. When test-retest reliability and predictive validity have been assessed, the results have been mixed, and because these studies have differed on many…

76 FR 58716 - Interpretation of Transmission Planning Reliability Standard

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-09-22

... directs NERC and Commission staff to initiate a process to identify any reliability issues, as discussed... Commission directs NERC and Commission staff to initiate a process to identify any reliability issues, as... established a process to select and certify an ERO,\\5\\ and subsequently certified NERC.\\6\\ On April 4, 2006...

Genomic prediction using imputed whole-genome sequence data in Holstein Friesian cattle.

PubMed

van Binsbergen, Rianne; Calus, Mario P L; Bink, Marco C A M; van Eeuwijk, Fred A; Schrooten, Chris; Veerkamp, Roel F

2015-09-17

In contrast to currently used single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) panels, the use of whole-genome sequence data is expected to enable the direct estimation of the effects of causal mutations on a given trait. This could lead to higher reliabilities of genomic predictions compared to those based on SNP genotypes. Also, at each generation of selection, recombination events between a SNP and a mutation can cause decay in reliability of genomic predictions based on markers rather than on the causal variants. Our objective was to investigate the use of imputed whole-genome sequence genotypes versus high-density SNP genotypes on (the persistency of) the reliability of genomic predictions using real cattle data. Highly accurate phenotypes based on daughter performance and Illumina BovineHD Beadchip genotypes were available for 5503 Holstein Friesian bulls. The BovineHD genotypes (631,428 SNPs) of each bull were used to impute whole-genome sequence genotypes (12,590,056 SNPs) using the Beagle software. Imputation was done using a multi-breed reference panel of 429 sequenced individuals. Genomic estimated breeding values for three traits were predicted using a Bayesian stochastic search variable selection (BSSVS) model and a genome-enabled best linear unbiased prediction model (GBLUP). Reliabilities of predictions were based on 2087 validation bulls, while the other 3416 bulls were used for training. Prediction reliabilities ranged from 0.37 to 0.52. BSSVS performed better than GBLUP in all cases. Reliabilities of genomic predictions were slightly lower with imputed sequence data than with BovineHD chip data. Also, the reliabilities tended to be lower for both sequence data and BovineHD chip data when relationships between training animals were low. No increase in persistency of prediction reliability using imputed sequence data was observed. Compared to BovineHD genotype data, using imputed sequence data for genomic prediction produced no advantage. To investigate the putative advantage of genomic prediction using (imputed) sequence data, a training set with a larger number of individuals that are distantly related to each other and genomic prediction models that incorporate biological information on the SNPs or that apply stricter SNP pre-selection should be considered.

Tracking reliability for space cabin-borne equipment in development by Crow model.

PubMed

Chen, J D; Jiao, S J; Sun, H L

2001-12-01

Objective. To study and track the reliability growth of manned spaceflight cabin-borne equipment in the course of its development. Method. A new technique of reliability growth estimation and prediction, which is composed of the Crow model and test data conversion (TDC) method was used. Result. The estimation and prediction value of the reliability growth conformed to its expectations. Conclusion. The method could dynamically estimate and predict the reliability of the equipment by making full use of various test information in the course of its development. It offered not only a possibility of tracking the equipment reliability growth, but also the reference for quality control in manned spaceflight cabin-borne equipment design and development process.

Olfactory discrimination predicts cognitive decline among community-dwelling older adults

PubMed Central

Sohrabi, H R; Bates, K A; Weinborn, M G; Johnston, A N B; Bahramian, A; Taddei, K; Laws, S M; Rodrigues, M; Morici, M; Howard, M; Martins, G; Mackay-Sim, A; Gandy, S E; Martins, R N

2012-01-01

The presence of olfactory dysfunction in individuals at higher risk of Alzheimer's disease has significant diagnostic and screening implications for preventive and ameliorative drug trials. Olfactory threshold, discrimination and identification can be reliably recorded in the early stages of neurodegenerative diseases. The current study has examined the ability of various olfactory functions in predicting cognitive decline in a community-dwelling sample. A group of 308 participants, aged 46–86 years old, were recruited for this study. After 3 years of follow-up, participants were divided into cognitively declined and non-declined groups based on their performance on a neuropsychological battery. Assessment of olfactory functions using the Sniffin' Sticks battery indicated that, contrary to previous findings, olfactory discrimination, but not olfactory identification, significantly predicted subsequent cognitive decline (odds ratio=0.869; P<0.05; 95% confidence interval=0.764−0.988). The current study findings confirm previously reported associations between olfactory and cognitive functions, and indicate that impairment in olfactory discrimination can predict future cognitive decline. These findings further our current understanding of the association between cognition and olfaction, and support olfactory assessment in screening those at higher risk of dementia. PMID:22832962

Olfactory discrimination predicts cognitive decline among community-dwelling older adults.

PubMed

Sohrabi, H R; Bates, K A; Weinborn, M G; Johnston, A N B; Bahramian, A; Taddei, K; Laws, S M; Rodrigues, M; Morici, M; Howard, M; Martins, G; Mackay-Sim, A; Gandy, S E; Martins, R N

2012-05-22

The presence of olfactory dysfunction in individuals at higher risk of Alzheimer's disease has significant diagnostic and screening implications for preventive and ameliorative drug trials. Olfactory threshold, discrimination and identification can be reliably recorded in the early stages of neurodegenerative diseases. The current study has examined the ability of various olfactory functions in predicting cognitive decline in a community-dwelling sample. A group of 308 participants, aged 46-86 years old, were recruited for this study. After 3 years of follow-up, participants were divided into cognitively declined and non-declined groups based on their performance on a neuropsychological battery. Assessment of olfactory functions using the Sniffin' Sticks battery indicated that, contrary to previous findings, olfactory discrimination, but not olfactory identification, significantly predicted subsequent cognitive decline (odds ratio = 0.869; P<0.05; 95% confidence interval = 0.764-0.988). The current study findings confirm previously reported associations between olfactory and cognitive functions, and indicate that impairment in olfactory discrimination can predict future cognitive decline. These findings further our current understanding of the association between cognition and olfaction, and support olfactory assessment in screening those at higher risk of dementia.

Acute pancreatitis.

PubMed

Talukdar, Rupjyoti; Vege, Santhi S

2015-09-01

To summarize recent data on classification systems, cause, risk factors, severity prediction, nutrition, and drug treatment of acute pancreatitis. Comparison of the Revised Atlanta Classification and Determinant Based Classification has shown heterogeneous results. Simvastatin has a protective effect against acute pancreatitis. Young black male, alcohol, smoldering symptoms, and subsequent diagnosis of chronic pancreatitis are risk factors associated with readmissions after acute pancreatitis. A reliable clinical or laboratory marker or a scoring system to predict severity is lacking. The PYTHON trial has shown that oral feeding with on demand nasoenteric tube feeding after 72 h is as good as nasoenteric tube feeding within 24 h in preventing infections in predicted severe acute pancreatitis. Male sex, multiple organ failure, extent of pancreatic necrosis, and heterogeneous collection are factors associated with failure of percutaneous drainage of pancreatic collections. The newly proposed classification systems of acute pancreatitis need to be evaluated more critically. New biomarkers are needed for severity prediction. Further well designed studies are required to assess the type of enteral nutritional formulations for acute pancreatitis. The optimal minimally invasive method or combination to debride the necrotic collections is evolving. There is a great need for a drug to treat the disease early on to prevent morbidity and mortality.

Multiple measures of dispositional global/local bias predict attentional blink magnitude.

PubMed

Dale, Gillian; Arnell, Karen M

2015-07-01

When the second of two targets (T2) is presented temporally close to the first target (T1) in a rapid serial visual presentation stream, accuracy to identify T2 is markedly reduced-an attentional blink (AB). While most individuals show an AB, Dale and Arnell (Atten Percept Psychophys 72(3):602-606, 2010) demonstrated that individual differences in dispositional attentional focus predicted AB performance, such that individuals who showed a natural bias toward the global level of Navon letter stimuli were less susceptible to the AB and showed a smaller AB effect. For the current study, we extended the findings of Dale and Arnell (Atten Percept Psychophys 72(3):602-606, 2010) through two experiments. In Experiment 1, we examined the relationship between dispositional global/local bias and the AB using a highly reliable hierarchical shape task measure. In Experiment 2, we examined whether three distinct global/local measures could predict AB performance. In both experiments, performance on the global/local tasks predicted subsequent AB performance, such that individuals with a greater preference for the global information showed a reduced AB. This supports previous findings, as well as recent models which discuss the role of attentional breadth in selective attention.

Method and apparatus to predict the remaining service life of an operating system

DOEpatents

Greitzer, Frank L.; Kangas, Lars J.; Terrones, Kristine M.; Maynard, Melody A.; Pawlowski, Ronald A. , Ferryman; Thomas A.; Skorpik, James R.; Wilson, Bary W.

2008-11-25

A method and computer-based apparatus for monitoring the degradation of, predicting the remaining service life of, and/or planning maintenance for, an operating system are disclosed. Diagnostic information on degradation of the operating system is obtained through measurement of one or more performance characteristics by one or more sensors onboard and/or proximate the operating system. Though not required, it is preferred that the sensor data are validated to improve the accuracy and reliability of the service life predictions. The condition or degree of degradation of the operating system is presented to a user by way of one or more calculated, numeric degradation figures of merit that are trended against one or more independent variables using one or more mathematical techniques. Furthermore, more than one trendline and uncertainty interval may be generated for a given degradation figure of merit/independent variable data set. The trendline(s) and uncertainty interval(s) are subsequently compared to one or more degradation figure of merit thresholds to predict the remaining service life of the operating system. The present invention enables multiple mathematical approaches in determining which trendline(s) to use to provide the best estimate of the remaining service life.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zawisza, I; Yan, H; Yin, F

Purpose: To assure that tumor motion is within the radiation field during high-dose and high-precision radiosurgery, real-time imaging and surrogate monitoring are employed. These methods are useful in providing real-time tumor/surrogate motion but no future information is available. In order to anticipate future tumor/surrogate motion and track target location precisely, an algorithm is developed and investigated for estimating surrogate motion multiple-steps ahead. Methods: The study utilized a one-dimensional surrogate motion signal divided into three components: (a) training component containing the primary data including the first frame to the beginning of the input subsequence; (b) input subsequence component of the surrogatemore » signal used as input to the prediction algorithm: (c) output subsequence component is the remaining signal used as the known output of the prediction algorithm for validation. The prediction algorithm consists of three major steps: (1) extracting subsequences from training component which best-match the input subsequence according to given criterion; (2) calculating weighting factors from these best-matched subsequence; (3) collecting the proceeding parts of the subsequences and combining them together with assigned weighting factors to form output. The prediction algorithm was examined for several patients, and its performance is assessed based on the correlation between prediction and known output. Results: Respiratory motion data was collected for 20 patients using the RPM system. The output subsequence is the last 50 samples (∼2 seconds) of a surrogate signal, and the input subsequence was 100 (∼3 seconds) frames prior to the output subsequence. Based on the analysis of correlation coefficient between predicted and known output subsequence, the average correlation is 0.9644±0.0394 and 0.9789±0.0239 for equal-weighting and relative-weighting strategies, respectively. Conclusion: Preliminary results indicate that the prediction algorithm is effective in estimating surrogate motion multiple-steps in advance. Relative-weighting method shows better prediction accuracy than equal-weighting method. More parameters of this algorithm are under investigation.« less

Eye Movements During Everyday Behavior Predict Personality Traits.

PubMed

Hoppe, Sabrina; Loetscher, Tobias; Morey, Stephanie A; Bulling, Andreas

2018-01-01

Besides allowing us to perceive our surroundings, eye movements are also a window into our mind and a rich source of information on who we are, how we feel, and what we do. Here we show that eye movements during an everyday task predict aspects of our personality. We tracked eye movements of 42 participants while they ran an errand on a university campus and subsequently assessed their personality traits using well-established questionnaires. Using a state-of-the-art machine learning method and a rich set of features encoding different eye movement characteristics, we were able to reliably predict four of the Big Five personality traits (neuroticism, extraversion, agreeableness, conscientiousness) as well as perceptual curiosity only from eye movements. Further analysis revealed new relations between previously neglected eye movement characteristics and personality. Our findings demonstrate a considerable influence of personality on everyday eye movement control, thereby complementing earlier studies in laboratory settings. Improving automatic recognition and interpretation of human social signals is an important endeavor, enabling innovative design of human-computer systems capable of sensing spontaneous natural user behavior to facilitate efficient interaction and personalization.

Eye Movements During Everyday Behavior Predict Personality Traits

PubMed Central

Hoppe, Sabrina; Loetscher, Tobias; Morey, Stephanie A.; Bulling, Andreas

2018-01-01

Besides allowing us to perceive our surroundings, eye movements are also a window into our mind and a rich source of information on who we are, how we feel, and what we do. Here we show that eye movements during an everyday task predict aspects of our personality. We tracked eye movements of 42 participants while they ran an errand on a university campus and subsequently assessed their personality traits using well-established questionnaires. Using a state-of-the-art machine learning method and a rich set of features encoding different eye movement characteristics, we were able to reliably predict four of the Big Five personality traits (neuroticism, extraversion, agreeableness, conscientiousness) as well as perceptual curiosity only from eye movements. Further analysis revealed new relations between previously neglected eye movement characteristics and personality. Our findings demonstrate a considerable influence of personality on everyday eye movement control, thereby complementing earlier studies in laboratory settings. Improving automatic recognition and interpretation of human social signals is an important endeavor, enabling innovative design of human–computer systems capable of sensing spontaneous natural user behavior to facilitate efficient interaction and personalization. PMID:29713270

A conceptual prediction model for seasonal drought processes using atmospheric and oceanic standardized anomalies: application to regional drought processes in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Zhenchen; Lu, Guihua; He, Hai; Wu, Zhiyong; He, Jian

2018-01-01

Reliable drought prediction is fundamental for water resource managers to develop and implement drought mitigation measures. Considering that drought development is closely related to the spatial-temporal evolution of large-scale circulation patterns, we developed a conceptual prediction model of seasonal drought processes based on atmospheric and oceanic standardized anomalies (SAs). Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis is first applied to drought-related SAs at 200 and 500 hPa geopotential height (HGT) and sea surface temperature (SST). Subsequently, SA-based predictors are built based on the spatial pattern of the first EOF modes. This drought prediction model is essentially the synchronous statistical relationship between 90-day-accumulated atmospheric-oceanic SA-based predictors and SPI3 (3-month standardized precipitation index), calibrated using a simple stepwise regression method. Predictor computation is based on forecast atmospheric-oceanic products retrieved from the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2), indicating the lead time of the model depends on that of CFSv2. The model can make seamless drought predictions for operational use after a year-to-year calibration. Model application to four recent severe regional drought processes in China indicates its good performance in predicting seasonal drought development, despite its weakness in predicting drought severity. Overall, the model can be a worthy reference for seasonal water resource management in China.

Lung protection: an intervention for tidal volume reduction in a teaching intensive care unit.

PubMed

Briva, Arturo; Gaiero, Cristina

2016-01-01

To determine the effect of feedback and education regarding the use of predicted body weight to adjust tidal volume in a lung-protective mechanical ventilation strategy. The study was performed from October 2014 to November 2015 (12 months) in a single university polyvalent intensive care unit. We developed a combined intervention (education and feedback), placing particular attention on the importance of adjusting tidal volumes to predicted body weight bedside. In parallel, predicted body weight was estimated from knee height and included in clinical charts. One hundred fifty-nine patients were included. Predicted body weight assessed by knee height instead of visual evaluation revealed that the delivered tidal volume was significantly higher than predicted. After the inclusion of predicted body weight, we observed a sustained reduction in delivered tidal volume from a mean (standard error) of 8.97 ± 0.32 to 7.49 ± 0.19mL/kg (p < 0.002). Furthermore, the protocol adherence was subsequently sustained for 12 months (delivered tidal volume 7.49 ± 0.54 versus 7.62 ± 0.20mL/kg; p = 0.103). The lack of a reliable method to estimate the predicted body weight is a significant impairment for the application of a worldwide standard of care during mechanical ventilation. A combined intervention based on education and repeated feedbacks promoted sustained tidal volume education during the study period (12 months).

Computational modeling of membrane proteins

PubMed Central

Leman, Julia Koehler; Ulmschneider, Martin B.; Gray, Jeffrey J.

2014-01-01

The determination of membrane protein (MP) structures has always trailed that of soluble proteins due to difficulties in their overexpression, reconstitution into membrane mimetics, and subsequent structure determination. The percentage of MP structures in the protein databank (PDB) has been at a constant 1-2% for the last decade. In contrast, over half of all drugs target MPs, only highlighting how little we understand about drug-specific effects in the human body. To reduce this gap, researchers have attempted to predict structural features of MPs even before the first structure was experimentally elucidated. In this review, we present current computational methods to predict MP structure, starting with secondary structure prediction, prediction of trans-membrane spans, and topology. Even though these methods generate reliable predictions, challenges such as predicting kinks or precise beginnings and ends of secondary structure elements are still waiting to be addressed. We describe recent developments in the prediction of 3D structures of both α-helical MPs as well as β-barrels using comparative modeling techniques, de novo methods, and molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. The increase of MP structures has (1) facilitated comparative modeling due to availability of more and better templates, and (2) improved the statistics for knowledge-based scoring functions. Moreover, de novo methods have benefitted from the use of correlated mutations as restraints. Finally, we outline current advances that will likely shape the field in the forthcoming decade. PMID:25355688

Prediction of Software Reliability using Bio Inspired Soft Computing Techniques.

PubMed

Diwaker, Chander; Tomar, Pradeep; Poonia, Ramesh C; Singh, Vijander

2018-04-10

A lot of models have been made for predicting software reliability. The reliability models are restricted to using particular types of methodologies and restricted number of parameters. There are a number of techniques and methodologies that may be used for reliability prediction. There is need to focus on parameters consideration while estimating reliability. The reliability of a system may increase or decreases depending on the selection of different parameters used. Thus there is need to identify factors that heavily affecting the reliability of the system. In present days, reusability is mostly used in the various area of research. Reusability is the basis of Component-Based System (CBS). The cost, time and human skill can be saved using Component-Based Software Engineering (CBSE) concepts. CBSE metrics may be used to assess those techniques which are more suitable for estimating system reliability. Soft computing is used for small as well as large-scale problems where it is difficult to find accurate results due to uncertainty or randomness. Several possibilities are available to apply soft computing techniques in medicine related problems. Clinical science of medicine using fuzzy-logic, neural network methodology significantly while basic science of medicine using neural-networks-genetic algorithm most frequently and preferably. There is unavoidable interest shown by medical scientists to use the various soft computing methodologies in genetics, physiology, radiology, cardiology and neurology discipline. CBSE boost users to reuse the past and existing software for making new products to provide quality with a saving of time, memory space, and money. This paper focused on assessment of commonly used soft computing technique like Genetic Algorithm (GA), Neural-Network (NN), Fuzzy Logic, Support Vector Machine (SVM), Ant Colony Optimization (ACO), Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), and Artificial Bee Colony (ABC). This paper presents working of soft computing techniques and assessment of soft computing techniques to predict reliability. The parameter considered while estimating and prediction of reliability are also discussed. This study can be used in estimation and prediction of the reliability of various instruments used in the medical system, software engineering, computer engineering and mechanical engineering also. These concepts can be applied to both software and hardware, to predict the reliability using CBSE.

A comparison of the accuracy of polyether, polyvinyl siloxane, and plaster impressions for long-span implant-supported prostheses.

PubMed

Hoods-Moonsammy, Vyonne J; Owen, Peter; Howes, Dale G

2014-01-01

The purpose of this study was to compare the capacity of different impression materials to accurately reproduce the positions of five implant analogs on a master model by comparing the resulting cast with the stainless steel master model. The study was motivated by the knowledge that distortions can occur during impression making and the pouring of casts and that this distortion may produce inaccuracies of subsequent restorations, especially long-span castings for implant superstructures. The master model was a stainless steel model with five implant analogs. The impression materials used were impression plaster (Plastogum, Harry J Bosworth), a polyether (Impregum Penta, 3M ESPE), and two polyvinyl siloxane (PVS) materials (Aquasil Monophase and Aquasil putty with light-body wash, Dentsply). Five impressions were made with each impression material and cast in die stone under strictly controlled laboratory conditions. The positions of the implants on the master model, the impression copings, and the implant analogs in the subsequent casts were measured using a coordinate measuring machine that measures within 4 μm of accuracy. Statistical analyses indicated that distortion occurred in all of the impression materials, but inconsistently. The PVS monophase material reproduced the master model most accurately. Although there was no significant distortion between the impressions and the master model or between the impressions and their casts, there were distortions between the master model and the master casts, which highlighted the cumulative effects of the distortions. The polyether material proved to be the most reliable in terms of predictability. The impression plaster displayed cumulative distortion, and the PVS putty with light body showed the least reliability. Some of the distortions observed are of clinical significance and likely to contribute to a lack of passive fit of any superstructure. The inaccuracy of these analog materials and procedures suggested that greater predictability may lie in digital technology.

Fatty Liver Index and Lipid Accumulation Product Can Predict Metabolic Syndrome in Subjects without Fatty Liver Disease

PubMed Central

Cheng, Yuan-Lung; Wang, Yuan-Jen; Lan, Keng-Hsin; Huo, Teh-Ia; Hsieh, Wei-Yao; Hou, Ming-Chih; Lee, Fa-Yauh; Wu, Jaw-Ching; Lee, Shou-Dong

2017-01-01

Background. Fatty liver index (FLI) and lipid accumulation product (LAP) are indexes originally designed to assess the risk of fatty liver and cardiovascular disease, respectively. Both indexes have been proven to be reliable markers of subsequent metabolic syndrome; however, their ability to predict metabolic syndrome in subjects without fatty liver disease has not been clarified. Methods. We enrolled consecutive subjects who received health check-up services at Taipei Veterans General Hospital from 2002 to 2009. Fatty liver disease was diagnosed by abdominal ultrasonography. The ability of the FLI and LAP to predict metabolic syndrome was assessed by analyzing the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve. Results. Male sex was strongly associated with metabolic syndrome, and the LAP and FLI were better than other variables to predict metabolic syndrome among the 29,797 subjects. Both indexes were also better than other variables to detect metabolic syndrome in subjects without fatty liver disease (AUROC: 0.871 and 0.879, resp.), and the predictive power was greater among women. Conclusion. Metabolic syndrome increases the cardiovascular disease risk. The FLI and LAP could be used to recognize the syndrome in both subjects with and without fatty liver disease who require lifestyle modifications and counseling. PMID:28194177

A new scale for the assessment of performance and capacity of hand function in children with hemiplegic cerebral palsy: reliability and validity studies.

PubMed

Rosa-Rizzotto, M; Visonà Dalla Pozza, L; Corlatti, A; Luparia, A; Marchi, A; Molteni, F; Facchin, P; Pagliano, E; Fedrizzi, E

2014-10-01

In hemiplegic children, the recognition of the activity limitation pattern and the possibility of grading its severity are relevant for clinicians while planning interventions, monitoring results, predicting outcomes. Aim of the study is to examine the reliability and validity of Besta Scale, an instrument used to measure in hemiplegic children from 18 months to 12 years of age both grasp on request (capacity) and spontaneous use of upper limb (performance) in bimanual play activities and in ADL. Psychometric analysis of reliability and of validity of the Besta scale was performed. Outpatient study sample Reliability study: A sample of 39 patients was enrolled. The administration of Besta scale was video-recorded in a standardized manner. All videos were scored by 20 independent raters on subsequent viewing. 3 raters randomly selected from the 20-raters group rescored the same video two years later for intra-rater reliability. Intra and inter-rater reliability were calculated using Intraclass Correlation Coefficient (ICC) and Kendall's coefficient (K), respectively. Internal consistency reliability was assessed using Alpha's Chronbach coefficient. Validity study: a sample of 105 children was assessed 5 times (at t0 and 2, 3, 6 and 12 months later) by 20 independent raters. Each patient underwent at the same time to QUEST and Besta scale administration and assessment. Criterion validity was calculated using rho-Pearson coefficient. Reliability study: The inter-rater reliability calculated with Kendall's coefficient resulted moderate K=0.47. The intra-rater (or test-retest) reliability for 3 raters was excellent (ICC=0.927). The Cronbach's alpha for internal consistency was 0.972. Validity study: Besta scale showed a good criterion validity compared to QUEST increasing by age and severity of impairment. Rho Pearson's correlation coefficient r was 0.81 (P<0.0001). Limitations. Besta scales in infants finds hard to distinguish between mild to moderately impaired hand function. Besta scale scoring system is a valid and reliable tool, utilizable in a clinical setting to monitor evolution of unimanual and bimanual manipulation and to distinguish hand's capacity from performance.

Measuring cognitive change with ImPACT: the aggregate baseline approach.

PubMed

Bruce, Jared M; Echemendia, Ruben J; Meeuwisse, Willem; Hutchison, Michael G; Aubry, Mark; Comper, Paul

2017-11-01

The Immediate Post-Concussion Assessment and Cognitive Test (ImPACT) is commonly used to assess baseline and post-injury cognition among athletes in North America. Despite this, several studies have questioned the reliability of ImPACT when given at intervals employed in clinical practice. Poor test-retest reliability reduces test sensitivity to cognitive decline, increasing the likelihood that concussed athletes will be returned to play prematurely. We recently showed that the reliability of ImPACT can be increased when using a new composite structure and the aggregate of two baselines to predict subsequent performance. The purpose of the present study was to confirm our previous findings and determine whether the addition of a third baseline would further increase the test-retest reliability of ImPACT. Data from 97 English speaking professional hockey players who had received at least 4 ImPACT baseline evaluations were extracted from a National Hockey League Concussion Program database. Linear regression was used to determine whether each of the first three testing sessions accounted for unique variance in the fourth testing session. Results confirmed that the aggregate baseline approach improves the psychometric properties of ImPACT, with most indices demonstrating adequate or better test-retest reliability for clinical use. The aggregate baseline approach provides a modest clinical benefit when recent baselines are available - and a more substantial benefit when compared to approaches that obtain baseline measures only once during the course of a multi-year playing career. Pending confirmation in diverse samples, neuropsychologists are encouraged to use the aggregate baseline approach to best quantify cognitive change following sports concussion.

Detection of β-Thalassemia Carriers by Red Cell Parameters Obtained from Automatic Counters using Mathematical Formulas

PubMed Central

Roth, Idit Lachover; Lachover, Boaz; Koren, Guy; Levin, Carina; Zalman, Luci; Koren, Ariel

2018-01-01

Background β-thalassemia major is a severe disease with high morbidity. The world prevalence of carriers is around 1.5–7%. The present study aimed to find a reliable formula for detecting β-thalassemia carriers using an extensive database of more than 22,000 samples obtained from a homogeneous population of childbearing age women with 3161 (13.6%) of β-thalassemia carriers and to check previously published formulas. Methods We applied a mathematical method based on the support vector machine (SVM) algorithm in the search for a reliable formula that can differentiate between thalassemia carriers and non-carriers, including normal counts or counts suspected to belong to iron-deficient women. Results Shine’s formula and our SVM formula showed >98% sensitivity and >99.77% negative predictive value (NPV). All other published formulas gave inferior results. Conclusions We found a reliable formula that can be incorporated into any automatic blood counter to alert health providers to the possibility of a woman being a β-thalassemia carrier. A further simple hemoglobin characterization by HPLC analysis should be performed to confirm the diagnosis, and subsequent family studies should be carried out. Our SVM formula is currently limited to women of fertility age until further analysis in other groups can be performed. PMID:29326805

Limited generalization with varied, as compared to specific, practice in short-term motor learning.

PubMed

Willey, Chéla R; Liu, Zili

2018-01-01

The schema theory of learning predicts that varied training in motor learning should give rise to better transfer than specific training. For example, throwing beanbags during practice to targets 5 and 9ft away should better generalize to targets 7 and 11ft away, as compared to only throwing to a target 7ft away. In this study, we tested this prediction in a throwing task, when the pretest, practice, and posttest were all completed within an hour. Participants in the varied group practiced throwing at 5 and 9ft targets, while participants in the specific group practiced throwing at 7ft only. All participants reliably reduced errors from pretest to posttest. The varied group never outperformed the specific group at the 7ft target (the trained target for the specific group). They did not reliably outperform the specific group at 11ft, either. The numerically better performance at 11ft by the varied group was due, as it turned out in a subsequent experiment, to the fact that 11ft was closer to 9ft (one of the two training targets for the varied group) than to 7ft (the training target for the specific group). We conclude that varied training played a very limited role in short-term motor learning. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Do in-training evaluation reports deserve their bad reputations? A study of the reliability and predictive ability of ITER scores and narrative comments.

PubMed

Ginsburg, Shiphra; Eva, Kevin; Regehr, Glenn

2013-10-01

Although scores on in-training evaluation reports (ITERs) are often criticized for poor reliability and validity, ITER comments may yield valuable information. The authors assessed across-rotation reliability of ITER scores in one internal medicine program, ability of ITER scores and comments to predict postgraduate year three (PGY3) performance, and reliability and incremental predictive validity of attendings' analysis of written comments. Numeric and narrative data from the first two years of ITERs for one cohort of residents at the University of Toronto Faculty of Medicine (2009-2011) were assessed for reliability and predictive validity of third-year performance. Twenty-four faculty attendings rank-ordered comments (without scores) such that each resident was ranked by three faculty. Mean ITER scores and comment rankings were submitted to regression analyses; dependent variables were PGY3 ITER scores and program directors' rankings. Reliabilities of ITER scores across nine rotations for 63 residents were 0.53 for both postgraduate year one (PGY1) and postgraduate year two (PGY2). Interrater reliabilities across three attendings' rankings were 0.83 for PGY1 and 0.79 for PGY2. There were strong correlations between ITER scores and comments within each year (0.72 and 0.70). Regressions revealed that PGY1 and PGY2 ITER scores collectively explained 25% of variance in PGY3 scores and 46% of variance in PGY3 rankings. Comment rankings did not improve predictions. ITER scores across multiple rotations showed decent reliability and predictive validity. Comment ranks did not add to the predictive ability, but correlation analyses suggest that trainee performance can be measured through these comments.

Parts and Components Reliability Assessment: A Cost Effective Approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, Lydia

2009-01-01

System reliability assessment is a methodology which incorporates reliability analyses performed at parts and components level such as Reliability Prediction, Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) to assess risks, perform design tradeoffs, and therefore, to ensure effective productivity and/or mission success. The system reliability is used to optimize the product design to accommodate today?s mandated budget, manpower, and schedule constraints. Stand ard based reliability assessment is an effective approach consisting of reliability predictions together with other reliability analyses for electronic, electrical, and electro-mechanical (EEE) complex parts and components of large systems based on failure rate estimates published by the United States (U.S.) military or commercial standards and handbooks. Many of these standards are globally accepted and recognized. The reliability assessment is especially useful during the initial stages when the system design is still in the development and hard failure data is not yet available or manufacturers are not contractually obliged by their customers to publish the reliability estimates/predictions for their parts and components. This paper presents a methodology to assess system reliability using parts and components reliability estimates to ensure effective productivity and/or mission success in an efficient manner, low cost, and tight schedule.

Individual differences in situation awareness: Validation of the Situationism Scale

PubMed Central

Roberts, Megan E.; Gibbons, Frederick X.; Gerrard, Meg; Klein, William M. P.

2015-01-01

This paper concerns the construct of lay situationism—an individual’s belief in the importance of a behavior’s context. Study 1 identified a 13-item Situationism Scale, which demonstrated good reliability and validity. In particular, higher situationism was associated with greater situation-control (strategies to manipulate the environment in order to avoid temptation). Subsequent laboratory studies indicated that people higher on the situationism subscales used greater situation-control by sitting farther from junk food (Study 2) and choosing to drink non-alcoholic beverages before a cognitive task (Study 3). Overall, findings provide preliminary support for the psychometric validity and predictive utility of the Situationism Scale and offer this individual difference construct as a means to expand self-regulation theory. PMID:25329242

Modeling heterogeneous (co)variances from adjacent-SNP groups improves genomic prediction for milk protein composition traits.

PubMed

Gebreyesus, Grum; Lund, Mogens S; Buitenhuis, Bart; Bovenhuis, Henk; Poulsen, Nina A; Janss, Luc G

2017-12-05

Accurate genomic prediction requires a large reference population, which is problematic for traits that are expensive to measure. Traits related to milk protein composition are not routinely recorded due to costly procedures and are considered to be controlled by a few quantitative trait loci of large effect. The amount of variation explained may vary between regions leading to heterogeneous (co)variance patterns across the genome. Genomic prediction models that can efficiently take such heterogeneity of (co)variances into account can result in improved prediction reliability. In this study, we developed and implemented novel univariate and bivariate Bayesian prediction models, based on estimates of heterogeneous (co)variances for genome segments (BayesAS). Available data consisted of milk protein composition traits measured on cows and de-regressed proofs of total protein yield derived for bulls. Single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), from 50K SNP arrays, were grouped into non-overlapping genome segments. A segment was defined as one SNP, or a group of 50, 100, or 200 adjacent SNPs, or one chromosome, or the whole genome. Traditional univariate and bivariate genomic best linear unbiased prediction (GBLUP) models were also run for comparison. Reliabilities were calculated through a resampling strategy and using deterministic formula. BayesAS models improved prediction reliability for most of the traits compared to GBLUP models and this gain depended on segment size and genetic architecture of the traits. The gain in prediction reliability was especially marked for the protein composition traits β-CN, κ-CN and β-LG, for which prediction reliabilities were improved by 49 percentage points on average using the MT-BayesAS model with a 100-SNP segment size compared to the bivariate GBLUP. Prediction reliabilities were highest with the BayesAS model that uses a 100-SNP segment size. The bivariate versions of our BayesAS models resulted in extra gains of up to 6% in prediction reliability compared to the univariate versions. Substantial improvement in prediction reliability was possible for most of the traits related to milk protein composition using our novel BayesAS models. Grouping adjacent SNPs into segments provided enhanced information to estimate parameters and allowing the segments to have different (co)variances helped disentangle heterogeneous (co)variances across the genome.

Accuracy of fetal sex determination in the first trimester of pregnancy using 3D virtual reality ultrasound.

PubMed

Bogers, Hein; Rifouna, Maria S; Koning, Anton H J; Husen-Ebbinge, Margreet; Go, Attie T J I; van der Spek, Peter J; Steegers-Theunissen, Régine P M; Steegers, Eric A P; Exalto, Niek

2018-05-01

Early detection of fetal sex is becoming more popular. The aim of this study was to evaluate the accuracy of fetal sex determination in the first trimester, using 3D virtual reality. Three-dimensional (3D) US volumes were obtained in 112 pregnancies between 9 and 13 weeks of gestational age. They were offline projected as a hologram in the BARCO I-Space and subsequently the genital tubercle angle was measured. Separately, the 3D US aspect of the genitalia was examined for having a male or female appearance. Although a significant difference in genital tubercle angles was found between male and female fetuses, it did not result in a reliable prediction of fetal gender. Correct sex prediction based on first trimester genital appearance was at best 56%. Our results indicate that accurate determination of the fetal sex in the first trimester of pregnancy is not possible, even using an advanced 3D US technique. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Control of a brain-computer interface using stereotactic depth electrodes in and adjacent to the hippocampus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krusienski, D. J.; Shih, J. J.

2011-04-01

A brain-computer interface (BCI) is a device that enables severely disabled people to communicate and interact with their environments using their brain waves. Most research investigating BCI in humans has used scalp-recorded electroencephalography or intracranial electrocorticography. The use of brain signals obtained directly from stereotactic depth electrodes to control a BCI has not previously been explored. In this study, event-related potentials (ERPs) recorded from bilateral stereotactic depth electrodes implanted in and adjacent to the hippocampus were used to control a P300 Speller paradigm. The ERPs were preprocessed and used to train a linear classifier to subsequently predict the intended target letters. The classifier was able to predict the intended target character at or near 100% accuracy using fewer than 15 stimulation sequences in the two subjects tested. Our results demonstrate that ERPs from hippocampal and hippocampal adjacent depth electrodes can be used to reliably control the P300 Speller BCI paradigm.

FE-simulation of hot forging with an integrated heat treatment with the objective of residual stress prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Behrens, Bernd-Arno; Chugreeva, Anna; Chugreev, Alexander

2018-05-01

Hot forming as a coupled thermo-mechanical process comprises numerous material phenomena with a corresponding impact on the material behavior during and after the forming process as well as on the final component performance. In this context, a realistic FE-simulation requires reliable mathematical models as well as detailed thermo-mechanical material data. This paper presents experimental and numerical results focused on the FE-based simulation of a hot forging process with a subsequent heat treatment step aiming at the prediction of the final mechanical properties and residual stress state in the forged component made of low alloy CrMo-steel DIN 42CrMo4. For this purpose, hot forging experiments of connecting rod geometry with a corresponding metallographic analysis and x-ray residual stress measurements have been carried out. For the coupled thermo-mechanical-metallurgical FE-simulations, a special user-defined material model based on the additive strain decomposition method and implemented in Simufact Forming via MSC.Marc solver features has been used.

Quantitative assessment of post-concussion syndrome following mild traumatic brain injury using robotic technology.

PubMed

Subbian, Vignesh; Meunier, Jason M; Korfhagen, Joseph J; Ratcliff, Jonathan J; Shaw, George J; Beyette, Fred R

2014-01-01

Post-Concussion Syndrome (PCS) is a common sequelae of mild Traumatic Brain Injury (mTBI). Currently, there is no reliable test to determine which patients will develop PCS following an mTBI. As a result, clinicians are challenged to identify patients at high risk for subsequent PCS. Hence, there is a need to develop an objective test that can guide clinical risk stratification and predict the likelihood of PCS at the initial point of care in an Emergency Department (ED). This paper presents the results of robotic-assisted neurologic testing completed on mTBI patients in the ED and its ability to predict PCS at 3 weeks post-injury. Preliminary results show that abnormal proprioception, as measured using robotic testing is associated with higher risk of developing PCS following mTBI. In this pilot study, proprioceptive measures obtained through robotic testing had a 77% specificity (95CI: 46%-94%) and a 64% sensitivity (95CI: 41%-82%).

Research on the time-temperature-damage superposition principle of NEPE propellant

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Long; Chen, Xiong; Xu, Jin-sheng; Zhou, Chang-sheng; Yu, Jia-quan

2015-11-01

To describe the relaxation behavior of NEPE (Nitrate Ester Plasticized Polyether) propellant, we analyzed the equivalent relationships between time, temperature, and damage. We conducted a series of uniaxial tensile tests and employed a cumulative damage model to calculate the damage values for relaxation tests at different strain levels. The damage evolution curve of the tensile test at 100 mm/min was obtained through numerical analysis. Relaxation tests were conducted over a range of temperature and strain levels, and the equivalent relationship between time, temperature, and damage was deduced based on free volume theory. The equivalent relationship was then used to generate predictions of the long-term relaxation behavior of the NEPE propellant. Subsequently, the equivalent relationship between time and damage was introduced into the linear viscoelastic model to establish a nonlinear model which is capable of describing the mechanical behavior of composite propellants under a uniaxial tensile load. The comparison between model prediction and experimental data shows that the presented model provides a reliable forecast of the mechanical behavior of propellants.

Influencial factors in thermographic analysis in substations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zarco-Periñán, Pedro J.; Martínez-Ramos, José L.

2018-05-01

Thermography is one of the best predictive maintenance tools available due to its low cost, fast implementation and effectiveness of the results obtained. The detected hot spots enable serious incidents to be prevented, both in the facilities and equipment where they have been located. In accordance with the criticality of such points, the repair is carried out with greater or lesser urgency. However, for detection to remain reliable, the facility must meet a set of requirements that are normally assumed, otherwise hot spots cannot be detected correctly and will subsequently cause unwanted defects. This paper analyses three aspects that influence the reliability of the results obtained: the minimum percentage of load that a circuit must contain in order to be able to locate all the hot spots therein; the minimum waiting time from when an item of equipment or facility is energized until a thermographic inspection can be carried out with a complete guarantee of hot spot detection; and the influence on the generation of hot spots exerted by the tightening torque realized in the assembly process.

Methodology for Software Reliability Prediction. Volume 1.

DTIC Science & Technology

1987-11-01

SPACECRAFT 0 MANNED SPACECRAFT B ATCH SYSTEM AIRBORNE AVIONICS 0 UNMANNED EVENT C014TROL a REAL TIME CLOSED 0 UNMANNED SPACECRAFT LOOP OPERATINS SPACECRAFT...software reliability. A Software Reliability Measurement Framework was established which spans the life cycle of a software system and includes the...specification, prediction, estimation, and assessment of software reliability. Data from 59 systems , representing over 5 million lines of code, were

Can a serum acetaminophen concentration obtained less than 4 hours post-ingestion determine which patients do not require treatment with acetylcysteine?

PubMed

Yarema, Mark C; Green, Jason P; Sivilotti, Marco L A; Johnson, David W; Nettel-Aguirre, Alberto; Victorino, Charlemaigne; Spyker, Daniel A; Rumack, Barry H

2017-02-01

The interpretation of acetaminophen concentrations obtained prior to 4 hours after an acute, single overdose remains unclear. Patient care decisions in the Emergency Department could be accelerated if such concentrations could reliably exclude the need for treatment. To determine the agreement between a serum acetaminophen concentration obtained less than 4 hours after an acute ingestion and the subsequent 4 + hour concentration, and the predictive accuracy of early concentrations for identifying patients with potentially toxic exposures. A secondary analysis of patients admitted for acetaminophen poisoning at one of the 34 hospitals in eight Canadian cities from 1980 to 2005. We examined serum acetaminophen concentrations obtained less than 4 hours post-ingestion, and again 4 or more hours post-ingestion. For the diagnostic accuracy analysis, we specified a cutpoint of 100 μg/mL (662 μmol/L) obtained between 2 and 4 hours and a subsequent 4 to 20 hour acetaminophen concentration above the nomogram treatment line of 150 μg/mL (993 μmol/L). Of 2454 patients identified, 879 (36%) had a subsequent acetaminophen concentration above the nomogram treatment line. The 2-4 hour concentration demonstrated a sensitivity of 0.96 [95% CI; 0.94, 0.97] and a negative likelihood ratio of 0.070 [0.048, 0.10]. Coingested opioids reduced this sensitivity to 0.91 [0.83, 0.95], and antimuscarinics to 0.86 [0.72, 0.94]. Only very low to undetectable acetaminophen concentrations prior to 4 hours reliably excluded a subsequent concentration over the treatment line. Applying an acetaminophen concentration cutpoint of 100 μg/mL (662 μmol/L) at 2-4 hours after an acute ingestion as a threshold for repeat testing and/or treatment would occasionally miss potentially toxic exposures. Absorption of acetaminophen is only slightly delayed by coingested opioids or antimuscarinics. Our analysis validates the practice of not retesting when the first post-ingestion acetaminophen concentration is below the lower limit of quantification.

A Rasch Perspective

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schumacker, Randall E.; Smith, Everett V., Jr.

2007-01-01

Measurement error is a common theme in classical measurement models used in testing and assessment. In classical measurement models, the definition of measurement error and the subsequent reliability coefficients differ on the basis of the test administration design. Internal consistency reliability specifies error due primarily to poor item…

Statistical model selection for better prediction and discovering science mechanisms that affect reliability

DOE PAGES

Anderson-Cook, Christine M.; Morzinski, Jerome; Blecker, Kenneth D.

2015-08-19

Understanding the impact of production, environmental exposure and age characteristics on the reliability of a population is frequently based on underlying science and empirical assessment. When there is incomplete science to prescribe which inputs should be included in a model of reliability to predict future trends, statistical model/variable selection techniques can be leveraged on a stockpile or population of units to improve reliability predictions as well as suggest new mechanisms affecting reliability to explore. We describe a five-step process for exploring relationships between available summaries of age, usage and environmental exposure and reliability. The process involves first identifying potential candidatemore » inputs, then second organizing data for the analysis. Third, a variety of models with different combinations of the inputs are estimated, and fourth, flexible metrics are used to compare them. As a result, plots of the predicted relationships are examined to distill leading model contenders into a prioritized list for subject matter experts to understand and compare. The complexity of the model, quality of prediction and cost of future data collection are all factors to be considered by the subject matter experts when selecting a final model.« less

Medicine is not science: guessing the future, predicting the past.

PubMed

Miller, Clifford

2014-12-01

Irregularity limits human ability to know, understand and predict. A better understanding of irregularity may improve the reliability of knowledge. Irregularity and its consequences for knowledge are considered. Reliable predictive empirical knowledge of the physical world has always been obtained by observation of regularities, without needing science or theory. Prediction from observational knowledge can remain reliable despite some theories based on it proving false. A naïve theory of irregularity is outlined. Reducing irregularity and/or increasing regularity can increase the reliability of knowledge. Beyond long experience and specialization, improvements include implementing supporting knowledge systems of libraries of appropriately classified prior cases and clinical histories and education about expertise, intuition and professional judgement. A consequence of irregularity and complexity is that classical reductionist science cannot provide reliable predictions of the behaviour of complex systems found in nature, including of the human body. Expertise, expert judgement and their exercise appear overarching. Diagnosis involves predicting the past will recur in the current patient applying expertise and intuition from knowledge and experience of previous cases and probabilistic medical theory. Treatment decisions are an educated guess about the future (prognosis). Benefits of the improvements suggested here are likely in fields where paucity of feedback for practitioners limits development of reliable expert diagnostic intuition. Further analysis, definition and classification of irregularity is appropriate. Observing and recording irregularities are initial steps in developing irregularity theory to improve the reliability and extent of knowledge, albeit some forms of irregularity present inherent difficulties. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Care 3 model overview and user's guide, first revision

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bavuso, S. J.; Petersen, P. L.

1985-01-01

A manual was written to introduce the CARE III (Computer-Aided Reliability Estimation) capability to reliability and design engineers who are interested in predicting the reliability of highly reliable fault-tolerant systems. It was also structured to serve as a quick-look reference manual for more experienced users. The guide covers CARE III modeling and reliability predictions for execution in the CDC CYber 170 series computers, DEC VAX-11/700 series computer, and most machines that compile ANSI Standard FORTRAN 77.

A framework for conducting mechanistic based reliability assessments of components operating in complex systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wallace, Jon Michael

2003-10-01

Reliability prediction of components operating in complex systems has historically been conducted in a statistically isolated manner. Current physics-based, i.e. mechanistic, component reliability approaches focus more on component-specific attributes and mathematical algorithms and not enough on the influence of the system. The result is that significant error can be introduced into the component reliability assessment process. The objective of this study is the development of a framework that infuses the needs and influence of the system into the process of conducting mechanistic-based component reliability assessments. The formulated framework consists of six primary steps. The first three steps, identification, decomposition, and synthesis, are primarily qualitative in nature and employ system reliability and safety engineering principles to construct an appropriate starting point for the component reliability assessment. The following two steps are the most unique. They involve a step to efficiently characterize and quantify the system-driven local parameter space and a subsequent step using this information to guide the reduction of the component parameter space. The local statistical space quantification step is accomplished using two proposed multivariate probability models: Multi-Response First Order Second Moment and Taylor-Based Inverse Transformation. Where existing joint probability models require preliminary distribution and correlation information of the responses, these models combine statistical information of the input parameters with an efficient sampling of the response analyses to produce the multi-response joint probability distribution. Parameter space reduction is accomplished using Approximate Canonical Correlation Analysis (ACCA) employed as a multi-response screening technique. The novelty of this approach is that each individual local parameter and even subsets of parameters representing entire contributing analyses can now be rank ordered with respect to their contribution to not just one response, but the entire vector of component responses simultaneously. The final step of the framework is the actual probabilistic assessment of the component. Although the same multivariate probability tools employed in the characterization step can be used for the component probability assessment, variations of this final step are given to allow for the utilization of existing probabilistic methods such as response surface Monte Carlo and Fast Probability Integration. The overall framework developed in this study is implemented to assess the finite-element based reliability prediction of a gas turbine airfoil involving several failure responses. Results of this implementation are compared to results generated using the conventional 'isolated' approach as well as a validation approach conducted through large sample Monte Carlo simulations. The framework resulted in a considerable improvement to the accuracy of the part reliability assessment and an improved understanding of the component failure behavior. Considerable statistical complexity in the form of joint non-normal behavior was found and accounted for using the framework. Future applications of the framework elements are discussed.

Supersonic Retropulsion Surface Preparation of Carbon Fiber Reinforced Epoxy Composites for Adhesive Bonding

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Palmieri, Frank L.; Belcher, Marcus A.; Wohl, Christopher J.; Blohowiak, Kay Y.; Connell, John W.

2013-01-01

Surface preparation is widely recognized as a key step to producing robust and predictable bonds in a precise and reproducible manner. Standard surface preparation techniques, including grit blasting, manual abrasion, and peel ply, can lack precision and reproducibility, which can lead to variation in surface properties and subsequent bonding performance. The use of a laser to ablate composite surface resin can provide an efficient, precise, and reproducible means of preparing composite surfaces for adhesive bonding. Advantages include elimination of physical waste (i.e., grit media and sacrificial peel ply layers that ultimately require disposal), reduction in process variability due to increased precision (e.g. increased reproducibility), and automation of surface preparation, all of which improve reliability and process control. This paper describes a Nd:YAG laser surface preparation technique for composite substrates and the mechanical performance and failure modes of bonded laminates thus prepared. Additionally, bonded specimens were aged in a hot, wet environment for approximately one year and subsequently mechanically tested. The results of a one year hygrothermal aging study will be presented.

Training Visual Imagery: Improvements of Metacognition, but not Imagery Strength

PubMed Central

Rademaker, Rosanne L.; Pearson, Joel

2012-01-01

Visual imagery has been closely linked to brain mechanisms involved in perception. Can visual imagery, like visual perception, improve by means of training? Previous research has demonstrated that people can reliably evaluate the vividness of single episodes of imagination – might the metacognition of imagery also improve over the course of training? We had participants imagine colored Gabor patterns for an hour a day, over the course of five consecutive days, and again 2 weeks after training. Participants rated the subjective vividness and effort of their mental imagery on each trial. The influence of imagery on subsequent binocular rivalry dominance was taken as our measure of imagery strength. We found no overall effect of training on imagery strength. Training did, however, improve participant’s metacognition of imagery. Trial-by-trial ratings of vividness gained predictive power on subsequent rivalry dominance as a function of training. These data suggest that, while imagery strength might be immune to training in the current context, people’s metacognitive understanding of mental imagery can improve with practice. PMID:22787452

Prediction during language comprehension: benefits, costs, and ERP components.

PubMed

Van Petten, Cyma; Luka, Barbara J

2012-02-01

Because context has a robust influence on the processing of subsequent words, the idea that readers and listeners predict upcoming words has attracted research attention, but prediction has fallen in and out of favor as a likely factor in normal comprehension. We note that the common sense of this word includes both benefits for confirmed predictions and costs for disconfirmed predictions. The N400 component of the event-related potential (ERP) reliably indexes the benefits of semantic context. Evidence that the N400 is sensitive to the other half of prediction--a cost for failure--is largely absent from the literature. This raises the possibility that "prediction" is not a good description of what comprehenders do. However, it need not be the case that the benefits and costs of prediction are evident in a single ERP component. Research outside of language processing indicates that late positive components of the ERP are very sensitive to disconfirmed predictions. We review late positive components elicited by words that are potentially more or less predictable from preceding sentence context. This survey suggests that late positive responses to unexpected words are fairly common, but that these consist of two distinct components with different scalp topographies, one associated with semantically incongruent words and one associated with congruent words. We conclude with a discussion of the possible cognitive correlates of these distinct late positivities and their relationships with more thoroughly characterized ERP components, namely the P300, P600 response to syntactic errors, and the "old/new effect" in studies of recognition memory. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Reliability Estimation in Modeling Watershed Runoff With Uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melching, Charles S.; Yen, Ben Chie; Wenzel, Harry G., Jr.

1990-10-01

The reliability of simulation results produced by watershed runoff models is a function of uncertainties in nature, data, model parameters, and model structure. A framework is presented here for using a reliability analysis method (such as first-order second-moment techniques or Monte Carlo simulation) to evaluate the combined effect of the uncertainties on the reliability of output hydrographs from hydrologic models. For a given event the prediction reliability can be expressed in terms of the probability distribution of the estimated hydrologic variable. The peak discharge probability for a watershed in Illinois using the HEC-1 watershed model is given as an example. The study of the reliability of predictions from watershed models provides useful information on the stochastic nature of output from deterministic models subject to uncertainties and identifies the relative contribution of the various uncertainties to unreliability of model predictions.

Measuring acuity of the approximate number system reliably and validly: the evaluation of an adaptive test procedure

PubMed Central

Lindskog, Marcus; Winman, Anders; Juslin, Peter; Poom, Leo

2013-01-01

Two studies investigated the reliability and predictive validity of commonly used measures and models of Approximate Number System acuity (ANS). Study 1 investigated reliability by both an empirical approach and a simulation of maximum obtainable reliability under ideal conditions. Results showed that common measures of the Weber fraction (w) are reliable only when using a substantial number of trials, even under ideal conditions. Study 2 compared different purported measures of ANS acuity as for convergent and predictive validity in a within-subjects design and evaluated an adaptive test using the ZEST algorithm. Results showed that the adaptive measure can reduce the number of trials needed to reach acceptable reliability. Only direct tests with non-symbolic numerosity discriminations of stimuli presented simultaneously were related to arithmetic fluency. This correlation remained when controlling for general cognitive ability and perceptual speed. Further, the purported indirect measure of ANS acuity in terms of the Numeric Distance Effect (NDE) was not reliable and showed no sign of predictive validity. The non-symbolic NDE for reaction time was significantly related to direct w estimates in a direction contrary to the expected. Easier stimuli were found to be more reliable, but only harder (7:8 ratio) stimuli contributed to predictive validity. PMID:23964256

Combined smoking cues enhance reactivity and predict immediate subsequent smoking.

PubMed

Conklin, Cynthia A; McClernon, F Joseph; Vella, Elizabeth J; Joyce, Christopher J; Salkeld, Ronald P; Parzynski, Craig S; Bennett, Lee

2018-01-23

Cue reactivity (CR) research has reliably demonstrated robust cue-induced responding among smokers exposed to common proximal smoking cues (e.g., cigarettes, lighter). More recent work demonstrates that distal stimuli, most notably the actual environments in which smoking previously occurred, can also gain associative control over craving. In the real world proximal cues always occur within an environment; thus, a more informative test of how cues affect smokers might be to present these two cue types simultaneously. Using a combined-cue counterbalanced cue reactivity paradigm, the present study tested the impact of proximal (smoking and neutral) + personal environment (smoking and nonsmoking places) pictorial cues, on smokers' subjective and behavioral cue reactivity; as well as the extent to which cue-induced craving predicts immediate subsequent smoking in a within-subjects design. As anticipated, the dual smoking cue combination (ProxS+EnvS) led to the greatest cue-induced craving relative to the other three cue combinations (ProxS+EnvN, ProxN+EnvS, ProxN+-EnvN), p's < .004. Dual smoking cues also led to significantly shorter post-trial latencies to smoke, p's < .01. Overall cue reactivity difference score (post-trial craving minus baseline craving) was predictive of subsequent immediate smoking indexed by: Post-trial latency to smoke (B= -2.69, SE= 9.02; t(143) = -2.98, p = .003); total puff volume (B= 2.99, SE= 1.13; t(143)= 2.65, p = .009); and total number of puffs (B= .053, SE= .027; t(143)= 1.95, p = .05). The implications of these findings for better understanding the impact of cues on smoking behavior and cessation are discussed. This novel cue reactivity study examined smokers' reactivity to combined proximal and distal smoking cues. Exposure to a combination of two smoking cues (proximal and environment) led to the greatest increases in cue-induced craving and smoking behavior compared to all other cue combinations. Further, the overall magnitude of cue-induced craving was found to significantly predict immediate subsequent smoking. This work provides new insight on how exposure to various cues and cue combinations directly affect smokers' craving and actual smoking behavior, as well as the relationship between those two indices of reactivity. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco 2018. This work is written by (a) US Government employee(s) and is in the public domain in the US.

Lung protection: an intervention for tidal volume reduction in a teaching intensive care unit

PubMed Central

Briva, Arturo; Gaiero, Cristina

2016-01-01

Objective To determine the effect of feedback and education regarding the use of predicted body weight to adjust tidal volume in a lung-protective mechanical ventilation strategy. Methods The study was performed from October 2014 to November 2015 (12 months) in a single university polyvalent intensive care unit. We developed a combined intervention (education and feedback), placing particular attention on the importance of adjusting tidal volumes to predicted body weight bedside. In parallel, predicted body weight was estimated from knee height and included in clinical charts. Results One hundred fifty-nine patients were included. Predicted body weight assessed by knee height instead of visual evaluation revealed that the delivered tidal volume was significantly higher than predicted. After the inclusion of predicted body weight, we observed a sustained reduction in delivered tidal volume from a mean (standard error) of 8.97 ± 0.32 to 7.49 ± 0.19mL/kg (p < 0.002). Furthermore, the protocol adherence was subsequently sustained for 12 months (delivered tidal volume 7.49 ± 0.54 versus 7.62 ± 0.20mL/kg; p = 0.103). Conclusion The lack of a reliable method to estimate the predicted body weight is a significant impairment for the application of a worldwide standard of care during mechanical ventilation. A combined intervention based on education and repeated feedbacks promoted sustained tidal volume education during the study period (12 months). PMID:27925055

Psychometric Assessment of the Injection Pen Assessment Questionnaire (IPAQ): measuring ease of use and preference with injection pens for human growth hormone

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Purpose To examine the psychometric properties of the Injection Pen Assessment Questionnaire (IPAQ) including the following: 1) item and scale characteristics (e.g., frequencies, item distributions, and factor structure), 2) reliability, and 3) validity. Methods Focus groups and one-on-one dyad interviews guided the development of the IPAQ. The IPAQ was subsequently tested in 136 parent–child dyads in a Phase 3, 2-month, open-label, multicenter trial for a new Genotropin® disposable pen. Factor analysis was performed to inform the development of a scoring algorithm, and reliability and validity of the IPAQ were evaluated using the data from this two months study. Psychometric analyses were conducted separately for each injection pen. Results Confirmatory factor analysis provides evidence supporting a second order factor solution for four subscales and a total IPAQ score. These factor analysis results support the conceptual framework developed from previous qualitative research in patient dyads using the reusable pen. However, the IPAQ subscales did not consistently meet acceptable internal consistency reliability for some group level comparisons. Cronbach’s alphas for the total IPAQ score for both pens were 0.85, exceeding acceptable levels of reliability for group comparisons. Conclusions The total IPAQ score is a useful measure for evaluating ease of use and preference for injection pens in clinical trials among patient dyads receiving hGH. The psychometric properties of the individual subscales, mainly the lower internal consistency reliability of some of the subscales and the predictive validity findings, do not support the use of subscale scores alone as a primary endpoint. PMID:23046797

Investigating Postgraduate College Admission Interviews: Generalizability Theory Reliability and Incremental Predictive Validity

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Arce-Ferrer, Alvaro J.; Castillo, Irene Borges

2007-01-01

The use of face-to-face interviews is controversial for college admissions decisions in light of the lack of availability of validity and reliability evidence for most college admission processes. This study investigated reliability and incremental predictive validity of a face-to-face postgraduate college admission interview with a sample of…

Predicting Health Care Utilization in Marginalized Populations: Black, Female, Street-based Sex Workers

PubMed Central

Varga, Leah M.; Surratt, Hilary L.

2014-01-01

Background Patterns of social and structural factors experienced by vulnerable populations may negatively affect willingness and ability to seek out health care services, and ultimately, their health. Methods The outcome variable was utilization of health care services in the previous 12 months. Using Andersen’s Behavioral Model for Vulnerable Populations, we examined self-reported data on utilization of health care services among a sample of 546 Black, street-based female sex workers in Miami, Florida. To evaluate the impact of each domain of the model on predicting health care utilization, domains were included in the logistic regression analysis by blocks using the traditional variables first and then adding the vulnerable domain variables. Findings The most consistent variables predicting health care utilization were having a regular source of care and self-rated health. The model that included only enabling variables was the most efficient model in predicting health care utilization. Conclusions Any type of resource, link, or connection to or with an institution, or any consistent point of care contributes significantly to health care utilization behaviors. A consistent and reliable source for health care may increase health care utilization and subsequently decrease health disparities among vulnerable and marginalized populations, as well as contribute to public health efforts that encourage preventive health. PMID:24657047

Cortical Thickness Predicts the First Onset of Major Depression in Adolescence

PubMed Central

Foland-Ross, Lara C.; Sacchet, Matthew D.; Prasad, Gautam; Gilbert, Brooke; Thompson, Paul M.; Gotlib, Ian H.

2015-01-01

Given the increasing prevalence of Major Depressive Disorder and recent advances in preventative treatments for this disorder, an important challenge in pediatric neuroimaging is the early identification of individuals at risk for depression. We examined whether machine learning can be used to predict the onset of depression at the individual level. Thirty-three never-disordered adolescents (10–15 years old) underwent structural MRI. Participants were followed for 5 years to monitor the emergence of clinically significant depressive symptoms. We used support vector machines (SVMs) to test whether baseline cortical thickness could reliably distinguish adolescents who develop depression from adolescents who remained free of any Axis I disorder. Accuracies from subsampled cross-validated classification were used to assess classifier performance. Baseline cortical thickness correctly predicted the future onset of depression with an overall accuracy of 70% (69% sensitivity, 70% specificity; p = 0.021). Examination of SVM feature weights indicated that the right medial orbitofrontal, right precentral, left anterior cingulate, and bilateral insular cortex contributed most strongly to this classification. These findings indicate that cortical gray matter structure can predict the subsequent onset of depression. An important direction for future research is to elucidate mechanisms by which these anomalies in gray matter structure increase risk for developing this disorder. PMID:26315399

Cortical thickness predicts the first onset of major depression in adolescence.

PubMed

Foland-Ross, Lara C; Sacchet, Matthew D; Prasad, Gautam; Gilbert, Brooke; Thompson, Paul M; Gotlib, Ian H

2015-11-01

Given the increasing prevalence of Major Depressive Disorder and recent advances in preventative treatments for this disorder, an important challenge in pediatric neuroimaging is the early identification of individuals at risk for depression. We examined whether machine learning can be used to predict the onset of depression at the individual level. Thirty-three never-disordered adolescents (10-15 years old) underwent structural MRI. Participants were followed for 5 years to monitor the emergence of clinically significant depressive symptoms. We used support vector machines (SVMs) to test whether baseline cortical thickness could reliably distinguish adolescents who develop depression from adolescents who remained free of any Axis I disorder. Accuracies from subsampled cross-validated classification were used to assess classifier performance. Baseline cortical thickness correctly predicted the future onset of depression with an overall accuracy of 70% (69% sensitivity, 70% specificity; p=0.021). Examination of SVM feature weights indicated that the right medial orbitofrontal, right precentral, left anterior cingulate, and bilateral insular cortex contributed most strongly to this classification. These findings indicate that cortical gray matter structure can predict the subsequent onset of depression. An important direction for future research is to elucidate mechanisms by which these anomalies in gray matter structure increase risk for developing this disorder. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Quantitative prediction of ionization effect on human skin permeability.

PubMed

Baba, Hiromi; Ueno, Yusuke; Hashida, Mitsuru; Yamashita, Fumiyoshi

2017-04-30

Although skin permeability of an active ingredient can be severely affected by its ionization in a dose solution, most of the existing prediction models cannot predict such impacts. To provide reliable predictors, we curated a novel large dataset of in vitro human skin permeability coefficients for 322 entries comprising chemically diverse permeants whose ionization fractions can be calculated. Subsequently, we generated thousands of computational descriptors, including LogD (octanol-water distribution coefficient at a specific pH), and analyzed the dataset using nonlinear support vector regression (SVR) and Gaussian process regression (GPR) combined with greedy descriptor selection. The SVR model was slightly superior to the GPR model, with externally validated squared correlation coefficient, root mean square error, and mean absolute error values of 0.94, 0.29, and 0.21, respectively. These models indicate that Log D is effective for a comprehensive prediction of ionization effects on skin permeability. In addition, the proposed models satisfied the statistical criteria endorsed in recent model validation studies. These models can evaluate virtually generated compounds at any pH; therefore, they can be used for high-throughput evaluations of numerous active ingredients and optimization of their skin permeability with respect to permeant ionization. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Scoring ultrasound synovitis in rheumatoid arthritis: a EULAR-OMERACT ultrasound taskforce-Part 2: reliability and application to multiple joints of a standardised consensus-based scoring system

PubMed Central

Terslev, Lene; Naredo, Esperanza; Aegerter, Philippe; Wakefield, Richard J; Backhaus, Marina; Balint, Peter; Bruyn, George A W; Iagnocco, Annamaria; Jousse-Joulin, Sandrine; Schmidt, Wolfgang A; Szkudlarek, Marcin; Conaghan, Philip G; Filippucci, Emilio

2017-01-01

Objectives To test the reliability of new ultrasound (US) definitions and quantification of synovial hypertrophy (SH) and power Doppler (PD) signal, separately and in combination, in a range of joints in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) using the European League Against Rheumatisms–Outcomes Measures in Rheumatology (EULAR-OMERACT) combined score for PD and SH. Methods A stepwise approach was used: (1) scoring static images of metacarpophalangeal (MCP) joints in a web-based exercise and subsequently when scanning patients; (2) scoring static images of wrist, proximal interphalangeal joints, knee and metatarsophalangeal joints in a web-based exercise and subsequently when scanning patients using different acquisitions (standardised vs usual practice). For reliability, kappa coefficients (κ) were used. Results Scoring MCP joints in static images showed substantial intraobserver variability but good to excellent interobserver reliability. In patients, intraobserver reliability was the same for the two acquisition methods. Interobserver reliability for SH (κ=0.87) and PD (κ=0.79) and the EULAR-OMERACT combined score (κ=0.86) were better when using a ‘standardised’ scan. For the other joints, the intraobserver reliability was excellent in static images for all scores (κ=0.8–0.97) and the interobserver reliability marginally lower. When using standardised scanning in patients, the intraobserver was good (κ=0.64 for SH and the EULAR-OMERACT combined score, 0.66 for PD) and the interobserver reliability was also good especially for PD (κ range=0.41–0.92). Conclusion The EULAR-OMERACT score demonstrated moderate-good reliability in MCP joints using a standardised scan and is equally applicable in non-MCP joints. This scoring system should underpin improved reliability and consequently the responsiveness of US in RA clinical trials. PMID:28948984

Influences on the Test-Retest Reliability of Functional Connectivity MRI and its Relationship with Behavioral Utility.

PubMed

Noble, Stephanie; Spann, Marisa N; Tokoglu, Fuyuze; Shen, Xilin; Constable, R Todd; Scheinost, Dustin

2017-11-01

Best practices are currently being developed for the acquisition and processing of resting-state magnetic resonance imaging data used to estimate brain functional organization-or "functional connectivity." Standards have been proposed based on test-retest reliability, but open questions remain. These include how amount of data per subject influences whole-brain reliability, the influence of increasing runs versus sessions, the spatial distribution of reliability, the reliability of multivariate methods, and, crucially, how reliability maps onto prediction of behavior. We collected a dataset of 12 extensively sampled individuals (144 min data each across 2 identically configured scanners) to assess test-retest reliability of whole-brain connectivity within the generalizability theory framework. We used Human Connectome Project data to replicate these analyses and relate reliability to behavioral prediction. Overall, the historical 5-min scan produced poor reliability averaged across connections. Increasing the number of sessions was more beneficial than increasing runs. Reliability was lowest for subcortical connections and highest for within-network cortical connections. Multivariate reliability was greater than univariate. Finally, reliability could not be used to improve prediction; these findings are among the first to underscore this distinction for functional connectivity. A comprehensive understanding of test-retest reliability, including its limitations, supports the development of best practices in the field. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press.

Quantifying and Validating Rapid Floodplain Geomorphic Evolution, a Monitoring and Modelling Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scott, R.; Entwistle, N. S.

2017-12-01

Gravel bed rivers and their associated wider systems present an ideal subject for development and improvement of rapid monitoring tools, with features dynamic enough to evolve within relatively short-term timescales. For detecting and quantifying topographical evolution, UAV based remote sensing has manifested as a reliable, low cost, and accurate means of topographic data collection. Here we present some validated methodologies for detection of geomorphic change at resolutions down to 0.05 m, building on the work of Wheaton et al. (2009) and Milan et al. (2007), to generate mesh based and pointcloud comparison data to produce a reliable picture of topographic evolution. Results are presented for the River Glen, Northumberland, UK. Recent channel avulsion and floodplain interaction, resulting in damage to flood defence structures make this site a particularly suitable case for application of geomorphic change detection methods, with the UAV platform at its centre. We compare multi-temporal, high-resolution point clouds derived from SfM processing, cross referenced with aerial LiDAR data, over a 1.5 km reach of the watercourse. Changes detected included bank erosion, bar and splay deposition, vegetation stripping and incipient channel avulsion. Utilisation of the topographic data for numerical modelling, carried out using CAESAR-Lisflood predicted the avulsion of the main channel, resulting in erosion of and potentially complete circumvention of original channel and flood levees. A subsequent UAV survey highlighted topographic change and reconfiguration of the local sedimentary conveyor as we predicted with preliminary modelling. The combined monitoring and modelling approach has allowed probable future geomorphic configurations to be predicted permitting more informed implementation of channel and floodplain management strategies.

Homicide in discharged patients with schizophrenia and other psychoses: a national case-control study.

PubMed

Fazel, Seena; Buxrud, Petra; Ruchkin, Vladislav; Grann, Martin

2010-11-01

To investigate factors associated with homicide after discharge from hospital in patients with schizophrenia and other psychoses. All homicides committed by patients with psychosis within 6 months of hospital discharge were identified in Sweden from 1988-2001 and compared with patients with psychoses discharged over the same time period who did not subsequently commit any violent offences. Medical records were then collected, and data extracted using a validated protocol. Interrater reliability tests were performed on a subsample, and variables with poor reliability excluded from subsequent analyses. We identified 47 cases who committed a homicide within 6 months of discharge, and 105 controls who did not commit any violent offence after discharge. On univariate analyses, clinical factors on admission associated with homicide included evidence of poor self-care, substance misuse, and being previously hospitalized for a violent episode. Inpatient characteristics included having a severe mental illness for one year prior to admission. After-care factors associated with homicide were evidence of medication non-compliance and substance misuse. The predictive validity of combining two or three of these factors was not high. Depression appeared to be inversely associated with homicide, and there was no relationship with the presence of delusions or hallucinations. There are a number of potentially treatable factors that are associated with homicide in schizophrenia and other psychoses. Associations with substance misuse and treatment compliance could be the focus of therapeutic interventions if validated in other samples. However, their clinical utility in violence risk assessment remains uncertain. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Bearing Procurement Analysis Method by Total Cost of Ownership Analysis and Reliability Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trusaji, Wildan; Akbar, Muhammad; Sukoyo; Irianto, Dradjad

2018-03-01

In making bearing procurement analysis, price and its reliability must be considered as decision criteria, since price determines the direct cost as acquisition cost and reliability of bearing determine the indirect cost such as maintenance cost. Despite the indirect cost is hard to identify and measured, it has high contribution to overall cost that will be incurred. So, the indirect cost of reliability must be considered when making bearing procurement analysis. This paper tries to explain bearing evaluation method with the total cost of ownership analysis to consider price and maintenance cost as decision criteria. Furthermore, since there is a lack of failure data when bearing evaluation phase is conducted, reliability prediction method is used to predict bearing reliability from its dynamic load rating parameter. With this method, bearing with a higher price but has higher reliability is preferable for long-term planning. But for short-term planning the cheaper one but has lower reliability is preferable. This contextuality can give rise to conflict between stakeholders. Thus, the planning horizon needs to be agreed by all stakeholder before making a procurement decision.

Reliability of Long-Term Wave Conditions Predicted with Data Sets of Short Duration

DTIC Science & Technology

1985-03-01

the validity and reliability of predicted probable wave heights obtained from data of limited duration. BACKGROUND: The basic steps listed by...interest to perform the analysis outlined in steps 2 to 5, the prediction would only be reliable for up to a 3year return period. For a 5-year data set...for long-term hindcast data . The data retrieval and analysis program known as the Sea State Engineering Analysis System (SEAS) makes handling of the

Pediatric superficial scald burns--reassessment of our follow-up protocol.

PubMed

Egro, Francesco M; O'Neill, Jennifer K; Briard, Robert; Cubison, Tania C S; Kay, Alan R; Estela, Catalina M; Burge, Timothy S

2010-01-01

The most common pediatric burn injury is a superficial scald. The current follow-up protocol for such burns includes review of the patient at 2 weeks postinjury and then 2 months later. The authors decided to review the protocol to assess the need for this second follow-up. A retrospective study reviewed the case notes of patients younger than 16 years at the time of their injury presenting with a scald over 5% TBSA. The progress of healing and scar development up to 5 years follow-up was assessed. This study showed that scalds healing within 2 weeks following injury rarely became hypertrophic. A prospective study was performed over a 10-month period. All children who suffered a superficial partial-thickness scald injury were included. At the 2-week appointment, the need for further follow-up was predicted. The accuracy of this prediction was assessed 2 months later. This study showed that an experienced member of the burns team could reliably predict at 2-week appointment those children who could be safely discharged with no subsequent need for scar management. This study suggests that it will be safe to modify the follow-up protocol, reducing the number of clinic attendances.

Validation and sensitivity of the FINE Bayesian network for forecasting aquatic exposure to nano-silver.

PubMed

Money, Eric S; Barton, Lauren E; Dawson, Joseph; Reckhow, Kenneth H; Wiesner, Mark R

2014-03-01

The adaptive nature of the Forecasting the Impacts of Nanomaterials in the Environment (FINE) Bayesian network is explored. We create an updated FINE model (FINEAgNP-2) for predicting aquatic exposure concentrations of silver nanoparticles (AgNP) by combining the expert-based parameters from the baseline model established in previous work with literature data related to particle behavior, exposure, and nano-ecotoxicology via parameter learning. We validate the AgNP forecast from the updated model using mesocosm-scale field data and determine the sensitivity of several key variables to changes in environmental conditions, particle characteristics, and particle fate. Results show that the prediction accuracy of the FINEAgNP-2 model increased approximately 70% over the baseline model, with an error rate of only 20%, suggesting that FINE is a reliable tool to predict aquatic concentrations of nano-silver. Sensitivity analysis suggests that fractal dimension, particle diameter, conductivity, time, and particle fate have the most influence on aquatic exposure given the current knowledge; however, numerous knowledge gaps can be identified to suggest further research efforts that will reduce the uncertainty in subsequent exposure and risk forecasts. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Robust face alignment under occlusion via regional predictive power estimation.

PubMed

Heng Yang; Xuming He; Xuhui Jia; Patras, Ioannis

2015-08-01

Face alignment has been well studied in recent years, however, when a face alignment model is applied on facial images with heavy partial occlusion, the performance deteriorates significantly. In this paper, instead of training an occlusion-aware model with visibility annotation, we address this issue via a model adaptation scheme that uses the result of a local regression forest (RF) voting method. In the proposed scheme, the consistency of the votes of the local RF in each of several oversegmented regions is used to determine the reliability of predicting the location of the facial landmarks. The latter is what we call regional predictive power (RPP). Subsequently, we adapt a holistic voting method (cascaded pose regression based on random ferns) by putting weights on the votes of each fern according to the RPP of the regions used in the fern tests. The proposed method shows superior performance over existing face alignment models in the most challenging data sets (COFW and 300-W). Moreover, it can also estimate with high accuracy (72.4% overlap ratio) which image areas belong to the face or nonface objects, on the heavily occluded images of the COFW data set, without explicit occlusion modeling.

Expanded experience with an intradermal skin test to predict for the presence or absence of carboplatin hypersensitivity.

PubMed

Markman, Maurie; Zanotti, Kristine; Peterson, Gertrude; Kulp, Barbara; Webster, Kenneth; Belinson, Jerome

2003-12-15

Carboplatin-associated hypersensitivity is increasingly recognized as a potentially serious toxicity when this agent is administered for more than six total cycles. Our group has used a predictive skin test in women with gynecologic cancers who have previously received more than six cumulative cycles of platinum-based chemotherapy. Thirty minutes before all subsequent carboplatin courses, a 0.02-mL aliquot from the solution prepared for treatment is injected intradermally. A positive test is considered to be a > or = 5-mm wheal, with a surrounding flare. From October 1998 through March 2003, 126 patients received a total of 717 carboplatin skin tests (median per patient, four tests; range, one to 54 tests). Of the 668 negative tests (93% of the total performed), 10 were associated with evidence of carboplatin hypersensitivity (1.5% false-negative rate; 95% CI, 0.6% to 2.4%), none of which were severe (eg, dyspnea, hypotension, cardiac/respiratory compromise). Of the 41 positive tests, the decision was made to not deliver the drug to 32 patients, although seven women ultimately underwent a future attempt at re-treatment with a platinum agent using a desensitization program. In seven episodes where patients received the carboplatin despite the finding of a positive test, six were associated with the development of symptoms of anaphylaxis (none severe). A negative carboplatin skin test seems to predict with reasonable reliability for the absence of a severe hypersensitivity reaction with the subsequent drug infusion. The implications of a positive test remain less certain, but limited experience with continued treatment suggests this approach must be undertaken with considerable caution.

Numerical modelling as a cost-reduction tool for probability of detection of bolt hole eddy current testing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mandache, C.; Khan, M.; Fahr, A.; Yanishevsky, M.

2011-03-01

Probability of detection (PoD) studies are broadly used to determine the reliability of specific nondestructive inspection procedures, as well as to provide data for damage tolerance life estimations and calculation of inspection intervals for critical components. They require inspections on a large set of samples, a fact that makes these statistical assessments time- and cost-consuming. Physics-based numerical simulations of nondestructive testing inspections could be used as a cost-effective alternative to empirical investigations. They realistically predict the inspection outputs as functions of the input characteristics related to the test piece, transducer and instrument settings, which are subsequently used to partially substitute and/or complement inspection data in PoD analysis. This work focuses on the numerical modelling aspects of eddy current testing for the bolt hole inspections of wing box structures typical of the Lockheed Martin C-130 Hercules and P-3 Orion aircraft, found in the air force inventory of many countries. Boundary element-based numerical modelling software was employed to predict the eddy current signal responses when varying inspection parameters related to probe characteristics, crack geometry and test piece properties. Two demonstrator exercises were used for eddy current signal prediction when lowering the driver probe frequency and changing the material's electrical conductivity, followed by subsequent discussions and examination of the implications on using simulated data in the PoD analysis. Despite some simplifying assumptions, the modelled eddy current signals were found to provide similar results to the actual inspections. It is concluded that physics-based numerical simulations have the potential to partially substitute or complement inspection data required for PoD studies, reducing the cost, time, effort and resources necessary for a full empirical PoD assessment.

A female black bear denning habitat model using a geographic information system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Clark, J.D.; Hayes, S.G.; Pledger, J.M.

1998-01-01

We used the Mahalanobis distance statistic and a raster geographic information system (GIS) to model potential black bear (Ursus americanus) denning habitat in the Ouachita Mountains of Arkansas. The Mahalanobis distance statistic was used to represent the standard squared distance between sample variates in the GIS database (forest cover type, elevation, slope, aspect, distance to streams, distance to roads, and forest cover richness) and variates at known bear dens. Two models were developed: a generalized model for all den locations and another specific to dens in rock cavities. Differences between habitat at den sites and habitat across the study area were represented in 2 new GIS themes as Mahalanobis distance values. Cells similar to the mean vector derived from the known dens had low Mahalanobis distance values, and dissimilar cells had high values. The reliability of the predictive model was tested by overlaying den locations collected subsequent to original model development on the resultant den habitat themes. Although the generalized model demonstrated poor reliability, the model specific to rock dens had good reliability. Bears were more likely to choose rock den locations with low Mahalanobis distance values and less likely to choose those with high values. The model can be used to plan the timing and extent of management actions (e.g., road building, prescribed fire, timber harvest) most appropriate for those sites with high or low denning potential. 

Evaluation of the Cardiac Depression Visual Analogue Scale in a medical and non-medical sample.

PubMed

Di Benedetto, Mirella; Sheehan, Matthew

2014-01-01

Comorbid depression and medical illness is associated with a number of adverse health outcomes such as lower medication adherence and higher rates of subsequent mortality. Reliable and valid psychological measures capable of detecting a range of depressive symptoms found in medical settings are needed. The Cardiac Depression Visual Analogue Scale (CDVAS) is a recently developed, brief six-item measure originally designed to assess the range and severity of depressive symptoms within a cardiac population. The current study aimed to further investigate the psychometric properties of the CDVAS in a general and medical sample. The sample consisted of 117 participants, whose mean age was 40.0 years (SD = 19.0, range 18-84). Participants completed the CDVAS, the Cardiac Depression Scale (CDS), the Depression Anxiety Stress Scales (DASS) and a demographic and health questionnaire. The CDVAS was found to have adequate internal reliability (α = .76), strong concurrent validity with the CDS (r = .89) and the depression sub-scale of the DASS (r = .70), strong discriminant validity and strong predictive validity. The principal components analysis revealed that the CDVAS measured only one component, providing further support for the construct validity of the scale. Results of the current study indicate that the CDVAS is a short, simple, valid and reliable measure of depressive symptoms suitable for use in a general and medical sample.

The Development and Psychometric Properties of the Immigration Law Concerns Scale (ILCS) for HIV Testing.

PubMed

Lechuga, Julia; Galletly, Carol L; Broaddus, Michelle R; Dickson-Gomez, Julia B; Glasman, Laura R; McAuliffe, Timothy L; Vega, Miriam Y; LeGrand, Sarah; Mena, Carla A; Barlow, Morgan L; Valera, Erik; Montenegro, Judith I

2017-11-08

To develop, pilot test, and conduct psychometric analyses of an innovative scale measuring the influence of perceived immigration laws on Latino migrants' HIV-testing behavior. The Immigration Law Concerns Scale (ILCS) was developed in three phases: Phase 1 involved a review of law and literature, generation of scale items, consultation with project advisors, and subsequent revision of the scale. Phase 2 involved systematic translation- back translation and consensus-based editorial processes conducted by members of a bilingual and multi-national study team. In Phase 3, 339 sexually active, HIV-negative Spanish-speaking, non-citizen Latino migrant adults (both documented and undocumented) completed the scale via audio computer-assisted self-interview. The psychometric properties of the scale were tested with exploratory factor analysis and estimates of reliability coefficients were generated. Bivariate correlations were conducted to test the discriminant and predictive validity of identified factors. Exploratory factor analysis revealed a three-factor, 17-item scale. subscale reliability ranged from 0.72 to 0.79. There were significant associations between the ILCS and the HIV-testing behaviors of participants. Results of the pilot test and psychometric analysis of the ILCS are promising. The scale is reliable and significantly associated with the HIV-testing behaviors of participants. Subscales related to unwanted government attention and concerns about meeting moral character requirements should be refined.

Data-driven coarse graining in action: Modeling and prediction of complex systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krumscheid, S.; Pradas, M.; Pavliotis, G. A.; Kalliadasis, S.

2015-10-01

In many physical, technological, social, and economic applications, one is commonly faced with the task of estimating statistical properties, such as mean first passage times of a temporal continuous process, from empirical data (experimental observations). Typically, however, an accurate and reliable estimation of such properties directly from the data alone is not possible as the time series is often too short, or the particular phenomenon of interest is only rarely observed. We propose here a theoretical-computational framework which provides us with a systematic and rational estimation of statistical quantities of a given temporal process, such as waiting times between subsequent bursts of activity in intermittent signals. Our framework is illustrated with applications from real-world data sets, ranging from marine biology to paleoclimatic data.

Determination of interfacial adhesion strength between oxide scale and substrate for metallic SOFC interconnects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, X.; Liu, W. N.; Stephens, E.; Khaleel, M. A.

The interfacial adhesion strength between the oxide scale and the substrate is crucial to the reliability and durability of metallic interconnects in solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) operating environments. It is necessary, therefore, to establish a methodology to quantify the interfacial adhesion strength between the oxide scale and the metallic interconnect substrate, and furthermore to design and optimize the interconnect material as well as the coating materials to meet the design life of an SOFC system. In this paper, we present an integrated experimental/analytical methodology for quantifying the interfacial adhesion strength between the oxide scale and a ferritic stainless steel interconnect. Stair-stepping indentation tests are used in conjunction with subsequent finite element analyses to predict the interfacial strength between the oxide scale and Crofer 22 APU substrate.

Optimal full motion video registration with rigorous error propagation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dolloff, John; Hottel, Bryant; Doucette, Peter; Theiss, Henry; Jocher, Glenn

2014-06-01

Optimal full motion video (FMV) registration is a crucial need for the Geospatial community. It is required for subsequent and optimal geopositioning with simultaneous and reliable accuracy prediction. An overall approach being developed for such registration is presented that models relevant error sources in terms of the expected magnitude and correlation of sensor errors. The corresponding estimator is selected based on the level of accuracy of the a priori information of the sensor's trajectory and attitude (pointing) information, in order to best deal with non-linearity effects. Estimator choices include near real-time Kalman Filters and batch Weighted Least Squares. Registration solves for corrections to the sensor a priori information for each frame. It also computes and makes available a posteriori accuracy information, i.e., the expected magnitude and correlation of sensor registration errors. Both the registered sensor data and its a posteriori accuracy information are then made available to "down-stream" Multi-Image Geopositioning (MIG) processes. An object of interest is then measured on the registered frames and a multi-image optimal solution, including reliable predicted solution accuracy, is then performed for the object's 3D coordinates. This paper also describes a robust approach to registration when a priori information of sensor attitude is unavailable. It makes use of structure-from-motion principles, but does not use standard Computer Vision techniques, such as estimation of the Essential Matrix which can be very sensitive to noise. The approach used instead is a novel, robust, direct search-based technique.

Exploring depressive personality traits in youth: origins, correlates, and developmental consequences.

PubMed

Rudolph, Karen D; Klein, Daniel N

2009-01-01

Research suggests that depressive personality (DP) disorder may represent a persistent, trait-based form of depression that lies along an affective spectrum ranging from personality traits to diagnosable clinical disorders. A significant gap in this area of research concerns the development of DP and its applicability to youth. The present research explored the construct of DP traits in youth. Specifically, this study examined the reliability, stability, and validity of the construct, potential origins of DP traits, and the developmental consequences of DP traits. A sample of 143 youth (mean age = 12.37 years, SD = 1.26) and their caregivers completed semistructured interviews and questionnaires on two occasions, separated by a 12-month interval. The measure of DP traits was reliable and moderately stable over time. Providing evidence of construct validity, DP traits were associated with a network of constructs, including a negative self-focus, high-negative and low-positive emotionality, and heightened stress reactivity. Moreover, several potential origins of DP traits were identified, including a history of family adversity, maternal DP traits, and maternal depression. Consistent with hypotheses regarding their developmental significance, DP traits predicted the generation of stress and the emergence of depression (but not nondepressive psychopathology) during the pubertal transition. Finally, depression predicted subsequent DP traits, suggesting a reciprocal process whereby DP traits heighten risk for depression, which then exacerbates these traits. These findings support the construct of DP traits in youth, and suggest that these traits may be a useful addition to developmental models of risk for youth depression.

Lifetime Reliability Prediction of Ceramic Structures Under Transient Thermomechanical Loads

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nemeth, Noel N.; Jadaan, Osama J.; Gyekenyesi, John P.

2005-01-01

An analytical methodology is developed to predict the probability of survival (reliability) of ceramic components subjected to harsh thermomechanical loads that can vary with time (transient reliability analysis). This capability enables more accurate prediction of ceramic component integrity against fracture in situations such as turbine startup and shutdown, operational vibrations, atmospheric reentry, or other rapid heating or cooling situations (thermal shock). The transient reliability analysis methodology developed herein incorporates the following features: fast-fracture transient analysis (reliability analysis without slow crack growth, SCG); transient analysis with SCG (reliability analysis with time-dependent damage due to SCG); a computationally efficient algorithm to compute the reliability for components subjected to repeated transient loading (block loading); cyclic fatigue modeling using a combined SCG and Walker fatigue law; proof testing for transient loads; and Weibull and fatigue parameters that are allowed to vary with temperature or time. Component-to-component variation in strength (stochastic strength response) is accounted for with the Weibull distribution, and either the principle of independent action or the Batdorf theory is used to predict the effect of multiaxial stresses on reliability. The reliability analysis can be performed either as a function of the component surface (for surface-distributed flaws) or component volume (for volume-distributed flaws). The transient reliability analysis capability has been added to the NASA CARES/ Life (Ceramic Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures/Life) code. CARES/Life was also updated to interface with commercially available finite element analysis software, such as ANSYS, when used to model the effects of transient load histories. Examples are provided to demonstrate the features of the methodology as implemented in the CARES/Life program.

Earth Observing System/Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A (EOS/AMSU-A): Reliability prediction report for module A1 (channels 3 through 15) and module A2 (channels 1 and 2)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Geimer, W.

1995-01-01

This report documents the final reliability prediction performed on the Earth Observing System/Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A (EOS/AMSU-A). The A1 Module contains Channels 3 through 15, and is referred to herein as 'EOS/AMSU-A1'. The A2 Module contains Channels 1 and 2, and is referred herein as 'EOS/AMSU-A2'. The 'specified' figures were obtained from Aerojet Reports 8897-1 and 9116-1. The predicted reliability figure for the EOS/AMSU-A1 meets the specified value and provides a Mean Time Between Failures (MTBF) of 74,390 hours. The predicted reliability figure for the EOS/AMSU-A2 meets the specified value and provides a MTBF of 193,110 hours.

Challenges Regarding IP Core Functional Reliability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Berg, Melanie D.; LaBel, Kenneth A.

2017-01-01

For many years, intellectual property (IP) cores have been incorporated into field programmable gate array (FPGA) and application specific integrated circuit (ASIC) design flows. However, the usage of large complex IP cores were limited within products that required a high level of reliability. This is no longer the case. IP core insertion has become mainstream including their use in highly reliable products. Due to limited visibility and control, challenges exist when using IP cores and subsequently compromise product reliability. We discuss challenges and suggest potential solutions to critical application IP insertion.

Bootstrap study of genome-enabled prediction reliabilities using haplotype blocks across Nordic Red cattle breeds.

PubMed

Cuyabano, B C D; Su, G; Rosa, G J M; Lund, M S; Gianola, D

2015-10-01

This study compared the accuracy of genome-enabled prediction models using individual single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) or haplotype blocks as covariates when using either a single breed or a combined population of Nordic Red cattle. The main objective was to compare predictions of breeding values of complex traits using a combined training population with haplotype blocks, with predictions using a single breed as training population and individual SNP as predictors. To compare the prediction reliabilities, bootstrap samples were taken from the test data set. With the bootstrapped samples of prediction reliabilities, we built and graphed confidence ellipses to allow comparisons. Finally, measures of statistical distances were used to calculate the gain in predictive ability. Our analyses are innovative in the context of assessment of predictive models, allowing a better understanding of prediction reliabilities and providing a statistical basis to effectively calibrate whether one prediction scenario is indeed more accurate than another. An ANOVA indicated that use of haplotype blocks produced significant gains mainly when Bayesian mixture models were used but not when Bayesian BLUP was fitted to the data. Furthermore, when haplotype blocks were used to train prediction models in a combined Nordic Red cattle population, we obtained up to a statistically significant 5.5% average gain in prediction accuracy, over predictions using individual SNP and training the model with a single breed. Copyright © 2015 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Earthquake prediction in seismogenic areas of the Iberian Peninsula based on computational intelligence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morales-Esteban, A.; Martínez-Álvarez, F.; Reyes, J.

2013-05-01

A method to predict earthquakes in two of the seismogenic areas of the Iberian Peninsula, based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), is presented in this paper. ANNs have been widely used in many fields but only very few and very recent studies have been conducted on earthquake prediction. Two kinds of predictions are provided in this study: a) the probability of an earthquake, of magnitude equal or larger than a preset threshold magnitude, within the next 7 days, to happen; b) the probability of an earthquake of a limited magnitude interval to happen, during the next 7 days. First, the physical fundamentals related to earthquake occurrence are explained. Second, the mathematical model underlying ANNs is explained and the configuration chosen is justified. Then, the ANNs have been trained in both areas: The Alborán Sea and the Western Azores-Gibraltar fault. Later, the ANNs have been tested in both areas for a period of time immediately subsequent to the training period. Statistical tests are provided showing meaningful results. Finally, ANNs were compared to other well known classifiers showing quantitatively and qualitatively better results. The authors expect that the results obtained will encourage researchers to conduct further research on this topic. Development of a system capable of predicting earthquakes for the next seven days Application of ANN is particularly reliable to earthquake prediction. Use of geophysical information modeling the soil behavior as ANN's input data Successful analysis of one region with large seismic activity

Software reliability models for fault-tolerant avionics computers and related topics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miller, Douglas R.

1987-01-01

Software reliability research is briefly described. General research topics are reliability growth models, quality of software reliability prediction, the complete monotonicity property of reliability growth, conceptual modelling of software failure behavior, assurance of ultrahigh reliability, and analysis techniques for fault-tolerant systems.

NATO IST 124 Experimentation Instructions

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-11-10

more reliable and predictable network performance through adaptive and efficient control schemes . This report provides guidance and instructions for...tactical heterogeneous networks for more reliable and predictable network performance through adaptive and efficient control schemes . This report

Exploring the Effects of Low Power Schemas in Mothers.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mills, Rosemary S. L.

1999-01-01

Assessed whether low perceived maternal power and temperamentally fearful preschool-aged daughters predicted subsequent maternal overcontrol and internalizing symptoms in daughters 2 years later. Found that low perceived maternal power predicted subsequent maternal overcontrol with initially fearful daughters but did not predict subsequent…

Predicting relapse in major depressive disorder using patient-reported outcomes of depressive symptom severity, functioning, and quality of life in the Individual Burden of Illness Index for Depression (IBI-D).

PubMed

Ishak, Waguih William; Greenberg, Jared M; Cohen, Robert M

2013-10-01

Patients with Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) often experience unexpected relapses, despite achieving remission. This study examines the utility of a single multidimensional measure that captures variance in patient-reported Depressive Symptom Severity, Functioning, and Quality of Life (QOL), in predicting MDD relapse. Complete data from remitted patients at the completion of 12 weeks of citalopram in the STAR*D study were used to calculate the Individual Burden of Illness index for Depression (IBI-D), and predict subsequent relapse at six (n=956), nine (n=778), and twelve months (n=479) using generalized linear models. Depressive Symptom Severity, Functioning, and QOL were all predictors of subsequent relapse. Using Akaike information criteria (AIC), the IBI-D provided a good model for relapse even when Depressive Symptom Severity, Functioning, and QOL were combined in a single model. Specifically, an increase of one in the IBI-D increased the odds ratio of relapse by 2.5 at 6 months (β=0.921 ± 0.194, z=4.76, p<2 × 10(-6)), by 2.84 at 9 months (β=1.045 ± 0.22, z=4.74, p<2.2 × 10(-6)), and by 4.1 at 12 months (β=1.41 ± 0.29, z=4.79, p<1.7 × 10(-6)). Self-report poses a risk to measurement precision. Using highly valid and reliable measures could mitigate this risk. The IBI-D requires time and effort for filling out the scales and index calculation. Technological solutions could help ease these burdens. The sample suffered from attrition. Separate analysis of dropouts would be helpful. Incorporating patient-reported outcomes of Functioning and QOL in addition to Depressive Symptom Severity in the IBI-D is useful in assessing the full burden of illness and in adequately predicting relapse, in MDD. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

FNAC Versus Core Needle Biopsy: A Comparative Study in Evaluation of Palpable Breast Lump

PubMed Central

Saha, Abhijit; Mukhopadhyay, Madhumita; Sarkar, Koushik; Saha, Ashis Kumar; Sarkar, Diptendra KR

2016-01-01

Introduction Breast carcinoma is the most common malignant tumour and the leading cause of carcinoma death in women in world. The main purpose of FNAC or CNB of breast lumps is to confirm cancer preoperatively and to avoid unnecessary surgery in specific benign conditions. Aims and Objective The objective of the study was to compare between Fine Needle Aspiration Cytology (FNAC) and Core Needle Biopsy (CNB) in the diagnosis of breast carcinoma with final histological diagnosis from excision specimen as it is gold standard. Materials and Methods A prospective study was done on 50 cases. Patients undergoing all three procedures (Fine Needle Aspiration Cytology and Core Needle Biopsy done at Department of Pathology; subsequent excision surgeries done at Department of General Surgery) were selected. May Grunwald Giemsa (MGG) and Papaniculou (PAP) staining were performed on cytology smears. Haematoxylin and Eosin (H&E) staining was done on both the CNB and tissue specimens obtained from subsequent excision surgeries to see the histological features. Results FNAC showed sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and diagnostic accuracy were 69%, 100%, 100%, 38.1%, and 74% respectively in diagnosing carcinoma. CNB had sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and diagnostic accuracy of 88.3%, 100%, 100%, 53.3% and 86%. Both FNAC and CNB showed statistically significant correlation with confirmatory HPE of excision specimen (p-value <0.05) in the diagnosis of breast carcinoma. Conclusion Fine needle aspiration cytology (FNAC) is a rapid, less complicated, economical, reliable and relevant method for the preoperative pathological diagnosis of breast carcinoma in a developing nation like ours. If the initial FNAC is inadequate, core needle biopsy (CNB) can be a useful second line method of pathological diagnosis in order to minimize the chance of missed diagnosis of breast cancer. PMID:27042469

High WT1 expression is an early predictor for relapse in patients with acute promyelocytic leukemia in first remission with negative PML-RARa after anthracycline-based chemotherapy: a single-center cohort study.

PubMed

Yoon, Jae-Ho; Kim, Hee-Je; Kwak, Dae-Hun; Park, Sung-Soo; Jeon, Young-Woo; Lee, Sung-Eun; Cho, Byung-Sik; Eom, Ki-Seong; Kim, Yoo-Jin; Lee, Seok; Min, Chang-Ki; Cho, Seok-Goo; Kim, Dong-Wook; Lee, Jong Wook; Min, Woo-Sung

2017-01-23

Wilms' tumor gene 1 (WT1) expression is a well-known predictor for relapse in acute myeloid leukemia. We monitored WT1 decrement along the treatment course to identify its significant role as a marker for residual disease in acute promyelocytic leukemia (APL) and tried to suggest its significance for relapse prediction. In this single center retrospective study, we serially measured PML-RARa and WT1 expression from 117 APL patients at diagnosis, at post-induction and post-consolidation chemotherapies, and at every 3 months after starting maintenance therapy. All 117 patients were in molecular remission after treatment of at least 2 consolidation chemotherapies. We used WT1 ProfileQuant™ kit (Ipsogen) for WT1 monitoring. High WT1 expression (>120 copies/10 4 ABL1) after consolidation and at early period (3 months) after maintenance therapy significantly predicted subsequent relapse. All paired PML-RARa RQ-PCR were not detected except for one sample with early relapse. Patients with high WT1 expression at 3 months after maintenance therapy (n = 40) showed a significantly higher relapse rate (30.5 vs. 6.9%, P < 0.001) and inferior disease free survival (62.8 vs. 91.4%, P < 0.001). Multivariate analysis revealed that high peak leukocyte counts at diagnosis (HR = 6.4, P < 0.001) and high WT1 expression at 3 months after maintenance therapy (HR = 7.1, P < 0.001) were significant factors for prediction of relapse. Our data showed high post-remission WT1 expression was a reliable marker for prediction of subsequent molecular relapse in APL. In this high-risk group, early intervention with ATRA ± ATO, anti-CD33 antibody therapy, and WT1-specific therapy may be used for relapse prevention. Clinical Research Information Service (CRIS), KCT0002079.

Prediction of arterial oxygen partial pressure after changes in FIO₂: validation and clinical application of a novel formula.

PubMed

Al-Otaibi, H M; Hardman, J G

2011-11-01

Existing methods allow prediction of Pa(O₂) during adjustment of Fi(O₂). However, these are cumbersome and lack sufficient accuracy for use in the clinical setting. The present studies aim to extend the validity of a novel formula designed to predict Pa(O₂) during adjustment of Fi(O₂) and to compare it with the current methods. Sixty-seven new data sets were collected from 46 randomly selected, mechanically ventilated patients. Each data set consisted of two subsets (before and 20 min after Fi(O₂) adjustment) and contained ventilator settings, pH, and arterial blood gas values. We compared the accuracy of Pa(O₂) prediction using a new formula (which utilizes only the pre-adjustment Pa(O₂) and pre- and post-adjustment Fi(O₂) with prediction using assumptions of constant Pa(O₂)/Fi(O₂) or constant Pa(O₂)/Pa(O₂). Subsequently, 20 clinicians predicted Pa(O₂) using the new formula and using Nunn's isoshunt diagram. The accuracy of the clinician's predictions was examined. The 95% limits of agreement (LA(95%)) between predicted and measured Pa(O₂) in the patient group were: new formula 0.11 (2.0) kPa, Pa(O₂)/Fi(O₂) -1.9 (4.4) kPa, and Pa(O₂)/Pa(O₂) -1.0 (3.6) kPa. The LA(95%) of clinicians' predictions of Pa(O₂) were 0.56 (3.6) kPa (new formula) and -2.7 (6.4) kPa (isoshunt diagram). The new formula's prediction of changes in Pa(O₂) is acceptably accurate and reliable and better than any other existing method. Its use by clinicians appears to improve accuracy over the most popular existing method. The simplicity of the new method may allow its regular use in the critical care setting.

Seasonal Extratropical Storm Activity Potential Predictability and its Origins during the Cold Seasons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pingree-Shippee, K. A.; Zwiers, F. W.; Atkinson, D. E.

2016-12-01

Extratropical cyclones (ETCs) often produce extreme hazardous weather conditions, such as high winds, blizzard conditions, heavy precipitation, and flooding, all of which can have detrimental socio-economic impacts. The North American east and west coastal regions are both strongly influenced by ETCs and, subsequently, land-based, coastal, and maritime economic sectors in Canada and the USA all experience strong adverse impacts from extratropical storm activity from time to time. Society would benefit if risks associated with ETCs and storm activity variability could be reliably predicted for the upcoming season. Skillful prediction would enable affected sectors to better anticipate, prepare for, manage, and respond to storm activity variability and the associated risks and impacts. In this study, the potential predictability of seasonal variations in extratropical storm activity is investigated using analysis of variance to provide quantitative and geographical observational evidence indicative of whether it may be possible to predict storm activity on the seasonal timescale. This investigation will also identify origins of the potential predictability using composite analysis and large-scale teleconnections (Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and North Atlantic Oscillation), providing the basis upon which seasonal predictions can be developed. Seasonal potential predictability and its origins are investigated for the cold seasons (OND, NDJ, DJF, JFM) during the 1979-2015 time period using daily mean sea level pressure, absolute pressure tendency, and 10-m wind speed from the ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis as proxies for extratropical storm activity. Results indicate potential predictability of seasonal variations in storm activity in areas strongly influenced by ETCs and with origins in the investigated teleconnections. For instance, the North Pacific storm track has considerable potential predictability and with notable origins in the SO and PDO.

Construct validity and reliability of the Finnish version of the Knee Injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score.

PubMed

Multanen, Juhani; Honkanen, Mikko; Häkkinen, Arja; Kiviranta, Ilkka

2018-05-22

The Knee Injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score (KOOS) is a commonly used knee assessment and outcome tool in both clinical work and research. However, it has not been formally translated and validated in Finnish. The purpose of this study was to translate and culturally adapt the KOOS questionnaire into Finnish and to determine its validity and reliability among Finnish middle-aged patients with knee injuries. KOOS was translated and culturally adapted from English into Finnish. Subsequently, 59 patients with knee injuries completed the Finnish version of KOOS, Western Ontario and McMaster Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC), Short-Form 36 Health Survey (SF-36) and Numeric Pain Rating Scale (Pain-NRS). The same KOOS questionnaire was re-administered 2 weeks later. Psychometric assessment of the Finnish KOOS was performed by testing its construct validity and reliability by using internal consistency, test-retest reliability and measurement error. The floor and ceiling effects were also examined. The cross-cultural adaptation revealed only minor cultural differences and was well received by the patients. For construct validity, high to moderate Spearman's Correlation Coefficients were found between the KOOS subscales and the WOMAC, SF-36, and Pain-NRS subscales. The Cronbach's alpha was from 0.79 to 0.96 for all subscales indicating acceptable internal consistency. The test-retest reliability was good to excellent, with Intraclass Correlation Coefficients ranging from 0.73 to 0.86 for all KOOS subscales. The minimal detectable change ranged from 17 to 34 on an individual level and from 2 to 4 on a group level. No floor or ceiling effects were observed. This study yielded an appropriately translated and culturally adapted Finnish version of KOOS which demonstrated good validity and reliability. Our data indicate that the Finnish version of KOOS is suitable for assessment of the knee status of Finnish patients with different knee complaints. Further studies are needed to evaluate the predictive ability of KOOS in the Finnish population.

Subsequent Vertebral Fractures Post Cement Augmentation of the Thoracolumbar Spine: Does it Correlate With Level-specific Bone Mineral Density Scores?

PubMed

Hey, Hwee Weng Dennis; Hwee Weng, Dennis Hey; Tan, Jun Hao; Jun, Hao Tan; Tan, Chuen Seng; Chuen, Seng Tan; Tan, Hsi Ming Bryan; Ming, Bryan Tan Hsi; Lau, Puang Huh Bernard; Huh, Bernard Lau Puang; Hee, Hwan Tak; Hwan, Tak Hee

2015-12-01

A case-control study. In this study, we investigated the correlation between level-specific preoperative bone mineral density and subsequent vertebral fractures. We also identified factors associated with subsequent vertebral fractures. Complications of cement augmentation of the spine include subsequent vertebral fractures, leading to unnecessary morbidity and more treatment. Ability to predict at-risk vertebra will help guide management. We studied all patients with osteoporotic compression fractures who underwent cement augmentation in a single institution from November 2001 to December 2010 by a single surgeon. Association between level-specific bone mineral density T-scores and subsequent fractures was assessed. Multivariable analysis was performed to identify significant factors associated with subsequent vertebral fractures. 93 patients followed up for a mean duration of 25.1 months (12-96) had a mean age of 76.8 years (47-99). Vertebroplasty was performed in 58 patients (62.4%) on 68 levels and kyphoplasty in 35 patients (37.6%) on 44 levels. Refracture was seen in 16 patients (17.2%). The time to subsequent fracture post cement augmentation was 20.5 months (2-90). For refracture cases, 43.8% (7/16) fractured in the adjacent vertebrae. Subsequently fractured vertebra had a mean T-score of -2.860 (95% confidence interval -3.268 to -2.452) and nonfractured vertebra had a mean T-score of -2.180 (95% confidence interval -2.373 to -1.986). A T-score of -2.2 or lower is predictive of refracture at that vertebra (P = 0.047). Odds ratio increases with decreasing T-scores from -2.2 or lower to -2.6 or lower. A T-score of -2.6 or lower gives no additional predictive advantage. After multivariable analysis, age (P = 0.049) and loss of preoperative anterior vertebral height (P = 0.017) are associated with refracture. Level-specific T-scores are predictive of subsequent fractures and the odds ratio increases with lower T-scores from -2.2 or less to -2.6 or less. They have a low positive predictive value, but a high negative predictive value for subsequent fractures. Other significant associations with subsequent refractures include age and anterior vertebral height. 4.

Methods for estimating flood frequency in Montana based on data through water year 1998

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parrett, Charles; Johnson, Dave R.

2004-01-01

Annual peak discharges having recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 200, and 500 years (T-year floods) were determined for 660 gaged sites in Montana and in adjacent areas of Idaho, Wyoming, and Canada, based on data through water year 1998. The updated flood-frequency information was subsequently used in regression analyses, either ordinary or generalized least squares, to develop equations relating T-year floods to various basin and climatic characteristics, equations relating T-year floods to active-channel width, and equations relating T-year floods to bankfull width. The equations can be used to estimate flood frequency at ungaged sites. Montana was divided into eight regions, within which flood characteristics were considered to be reasonably homogeneous, and the three sets of regression equations were developed for each region. A measure of the overall reliability of the regression equations is the average standard error of prediction. The average standard errors of prediction for the equations based on basin and climatic characteristics ranged from 37.4 percent to 134.1 percent. Average standard errors of prediction for the equations based on active-channel width ranged from 57.2 percent to 141.3 percent. Average standard errors of prediction for the equations based on bankfull width ranged from 63.1 percent to 155.5 percent. In most regions, the equations based on basin and climatic characteristics generally had smaller average standard errors of prediction than equations based on active-channel or bankfull width. An exception was the Southeast Plains Region, where all equations based on active-channel width had smaller average standard errors of prediction than equations based on basin and climatic characteristics or bankfull width. Methods for weighting estimates derived from the basin- and climatic-characteristic equations and the channel-width equations also were developed. The weights were based on the cross correlation of residuals from the different methods and the average standard errors of prediction. When all three methods were combined, the average standard errors of prediction ranged from 37.4 percent to 120.2 percent. Weighting of estimates reduced the standard errors of prediction for all T-year flood estimates in four regions, reduced the standard errors of prediction for some T-year flood estimates in two regions, and provided no reduction in average standard error of prediction in two regions. A computer program for solving the regression equations, weighting estimates, and determining reliability of individual estimates was developed and placed on the USGS Montana District World Wide Web page. A new regression method, termed Region of Influence regression, also was tested. Test results indicated that the Region of Influence method was not as reliable as the regional equations based on generalized least squares regression. Two additional methods for estimating flood frequency at ungaged sites located on the same streams as gaged sites also are described. The first method, based on a drainage-area-ratio adjustment, is intended for use on streams where the ungaged site of interest is located near a gaged site. The second method, based on interpolation between gaged sites, is intended for use on streams that have two or more streamflow-gaging stations.

Childhood and/or Adolescent Sexual Experiences: Predicting Variability in Subsequent Adjustment.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Seidner, Andrea L.; And Others

There is considerable debate regarding the effects of childhood sexual abuse on an individual's subsequent adjustment. To determine which variables are most useful in predicting subsequent adjustment of individuals who were involved in sexual experiences as children or adolescents, 59 female and 17 male undergraduates who reported having had a…

Reliability and Validity of Autism Diagnostic Interview-Revised, Japanese Version

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tsuchiya, Kenji J.; Matsumoto, Kaori; Yagi, Atsuko; Inada, Naoko; Kuroda, Miho; Inokuchi, Eiko; Koyama, Tomonori; Kamio, Yoko; Tsujii, Masatsugu; Sakai, Saeko; Mohri, Ikuko; Taniike, Masako; Iwanaga, Ryoichiro; Ogasahara, Kei; Miyachi, Taishi; Nakajima, Shunji; Tani, Iori; Ohnishi, Masafumi; Inoue, Masahiko; Nomura, Kazuyo; Hagiwara, Taku; Uchiyama, Tokio; Ichikawa, Hironobu; Kobayashi, Shuji; Miyamoto, Ken; Nakamura, Kazuhiko; Suzuki, Katsuaki; Mori, Norio; Takei, Nori

2013-01-01

To examine the inter-rater reliability of Autism Diagnostic Interview-Revised, Japanese Version (ADI-R-JV), the authors recruited 51 individuals aged 3-19 years, interviewed by two independent raters. Subsequently, to assess the discriminant and diagnostic validity of ADI-R-JV, the authors investigated 317 individuals aged 2-19 years, who were…

Managing Reliability in the 21st Century

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dellin, T.A.

1998-11-23

The rapid pace of change at Ike end of the 20th Century should continue unabated well into the 21st Century. The driver will be the marketplace imperative of "faster, better, cheaper." This imperative has already stimulated a revolution-in-engineering in design and manufacturing. In contrast, to date, reliability engineering has not undergone a similar level of change. It is critical that we implement a corresponding revolution-in-reliability-engineering as we enter the new millennium. If we are still using 20th Century reliability approaches in the 21st Century, then reliability issues will be the limiting factor in faster, better, and cheaper. At the heartmore » of this reliability revolution will be a science-based approach to reliability engineering. Science-based reliability will enable building-in reliability, application-specific products, virtual qualification, and predictive maintenance. The purpose of this paper is to stimulate a dialogue on the future of reliability engineering. We will try to gaze into the crystal ball and predict some key issues that will drive reliability programs in the new millennium. In the 21st Century, we will demand more of our reliability programs. We will need the ability to make accurate reliability predictions that will enable optimizing cost, performance and time-to-market to meet the needs of every market segment. We will require that all of these new capabilities be in place prior to the stint of a product development cycle. The management of reliability programs will be driven by quantifiable metrics of value added to the organization business objectives.« less

HitPredict version 4: comprehensive reliability scoring of physical protein-protein interactions from more than 100 species.

PubMed

López, Yosvany; Nakai, Kenta; Patil, Ashwini

2015-01-01

HitPredict is a consolidated resource of experimentally identified, physical protein-protein interactions with confidence scores to indicate their reliability. The study of genes and their inter-relationships using methods such as network and pathway analysis requires high quality protein-protein interaction information. Extracting reliable interactions from most of the existing databases is challenging because they either contain only a subset of the available interactions, or a mixture of physical, genetic and predicted interactions. Automated integration of interactions is further complicated by varying levels of accuracy of database content and lack of adherence to standard formats. To address these issues, the latest version of HitPredict provides a manually curated dataset of 398 696 physical associations between 70 808 proteins from 105 species. Manual confirmation was used to resolve all issues encountered during data integration. For improved reliability assessment, this version combines a new score derived from the experimental information of the interactions with the original score based on the features of the interacting proteins. The combined interaction score performs better than either of the individual scores in HitPredict as well as the reliability score of another similar database. HitPredict provides a web interface to search proteins and visualize their interactions, and the data can be downloaded for offline analysis. Data usability has been enhanced by mapping protein identifiers across multiple reference databases. Thus, the latest version of HitPredict provides a significantly larger, more reliable and usable dataset of protein-protein interactions from several species for the study of gene groups. Database URL: http://hintdb.hgc.jp/htp. © The Author(s) 2015. Published by Oxford University Press.

Prediction of Geomagnetic Activity and Key Parameters in High-Latitude Ionosphere-Basic Elements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lyatsky, W.; Khazanov, G. V.

2007-01-01

Prediction of geomagnetic activity and related events in the Earth's magnetosphere and ionosphere is an important task of the Space Weather program. Prediction reliability is dependent on the prediction method and elements included in the prediction scheme. Two main elements are a suitable geomagnetic activity index and coupling function -- the combination of solar wind parameters providing the best correlation between upstream solar wind data and geomagnetic activity. The appropriate choice of these two elements is imperative for any reliable prediction model. The purpose of this work was to elaborate on these two elements -- the appropriate geomagnetic activity index and the coupling function -- and investigate the opportunity to improve the reliability of the prediction of geomagnetic activity and other events in the Earth's magnetosphere. The new polar magnetic index of geomagnetic activity and the new version of the coupling function lead to a significant increase in the reliability of predicting the geomagnetic activity and some key parameters, such as cross-polar cap voltage and total Joule heating in high-latitude ionosphere, which play a very important role in the development of geomagnetic and other activity in the Earth s magnetosphere, and are widely used as key input parameters in modeling magnetospheric, ionospheric, and thermospheric processes.

Validity and Reliability Study of the Korean Tinetti Mobility Test for Parkinson's Disease.

PubMed

Park, Jinse; Koh, Seong-Beom; Kim, Hee Jin; Oh, Eungseok; Kim, Joong-Seok; Yun, Ji Young; Kwon, Do-Young; Kim, Younsoo; Kim, Ji Seon; Kwon, Kyum-Yil; Park, Jeong-Ho; Youn, Jinyoung; Jang, Wooyoung

2018-01-01

Postural instability and gait disturbance are the cardinal symptoms associated with falling among patients with Parkinson's disease (PD). The Tinetti mobility test (TMT) is a well-established measurement tool used to predict falls among elderly people. However, the TMT has not been established or widely used among PD patients in Korea. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the reliability and validity of the Korean version of the TMT for PD patients. Twenty-four patients diagnosed with PD were enrolled in this study. For the interrater reliability test, thirteen clinicians scored the TMT after watching a video clip. We also used the test-retest method to determine intrarater reliability. For concurrent validation, the unified Parkinson's disease rating scale, Hoehn and Yahr staging, Berg Balance Scale, Timed-Up and Go test, 10-m walk test, and gait analysis by three-dimensional motion capture were also used. We analyzed receiver operating characteristic curve to predict falling. The interrater reliability and intrarater reliability of the Korean Tinetti balance scale were 0.97 and 0.98, respectively. The interrater reliability and intra-rater reliability of the Korean Tinetti gait scale were 0.94 and 0.96, respectively. The Korean TMT scores were significantly correlated with the other clinical scales and three-dimensional motion capture. The cutoff values for predicting falling were 14 points (balance subscale) and 10 points (gait subscale). We found that the Korean version of the TMT showed excellent validity and reliability for gait and balance and had high sensitivity and specificity for predicting falls among patients with PD.

Reliability analysis and initial requirements for FC systems and stacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Åström, K.; Fontell, E.; Virtanen, S.

In the year 2000 Wärtsilä Corporation started an R&D program to develop SOFC systems for CHP applications. The program aims to bring to the market highly efficient, clean and cost competitive fuel cell systems with rated power output in the range of 50-250 kW for distributed generation and marine applications. In the program Wärtsilä focuses on system integration and development. System reliability and availability are key issues determining the competitiveness of the SOFC technology. In Wärtsilä, methods have been implemented for analysing the system in respect to reliability and safety as well as for defining reliability requirements for system components. A fault tree representation is used as the basis for reliability prediction analysis. A dynamic simulation technique has been developed to allow for non-static properties in the fault tree logic modelling. Special emphasis has been placed on reliability analysis of the fuel cell stacks in the system. A method for assessing reliability and critical failure predictability requirements for fuel cell stacks in a system consisting of several stacks has been developed. The method is based on a qualitative model of the stack configuration where each stack can be in a functional, partially failed or critically failed state, each of the states having different failure rates and effects on the system behaviour. The main purpose of the method is to understand the effect of stack reliability, critical failure predictability and operating strategy on the system reliability and availability. An example configuration, consisting of 5 × 5 stacks (series of 5 sets of 5 parallel stacks) is analysed in respect to stack reliability requirements as a function of predictability of critical failures and Weibull shape factor of failure rate distributions.

Dissociating Word Frequency and Predictability Effects in Reading: Evidence from Coregistration of Eye Movements and EEG

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kretzschmar, Franziska; Schlesewsky, Matthias; Staub, Adrian

2015-01-01

Two very reliable influences on eye fixation durations in reading are word frequency, as measured by corpus counts, and word predictability, as measured by cloze norming. Several studies have reported strictly additive effects of these 2 variables. Predictability also reliably influences the amplitude of the N400 component in event-related…

Technique for Early Reliability Prediction of Software Components Using Behaviour Models

PubMed Central

Ali, Awad; N. A. Jawawi, Dayang; Adham Isa, Mohd; Imran Babar, Muhammad

2016-01-01

Behaviour models are the most commonly used input for predicting the reliability of a software system at the early design stage. A component behaviour model reveals the structure and behaviour of the component during the execution of system-level functionalities. There are various challenges related to component reliability prediction at the early design stage based on behaviour models. For example, most of the current reliability techniques do not provide fine-grained sequential behaviour models of individual components and fail to consider the loop entry and exit points in the reliability computation. Moreover, some of the current techniques do not tackle the problem of operational data unavailability and the lack of analysis results that can be valuable for software architects at the early design stage. This paper proposes a reliability prediction technique that, pragmatically, synthesizes system behaviour in the form of a state machine, given a set of scenarios and corresponding constraints as input. The state machine is utilized as a base for generating the component-relevant operational data. The state machine is also used as a source for identifying the nodes and edges of a component probabilistic dependency graph (CPDG). Based on the CPDG, a stack-based algorithm is used to compute the reliability. The proposed technique is evaluated by a comparison with existing techniques and the application of sensitivity analysis to a robotic wheelchair system as a case study. The results indicate that the proposed technique is more relevant at the early design stage compared to existing works, and can provide a more realistic and meaningful prediction. PMID:27668748

[Phenotypic trends and breeding values for canine congenital sensorineural deafness in Dalmatian dogs].

PubMed

Blum, Meike; Distl, Ottmar

2014-01-01

In the present study, breeding values for canine congenital sensorineural deafness, the presence of blue eyes and patches have been predicted using multivariate animal models to test the reliability of the breeding values for planned matings. The dataset consisted of 6669 German Dalmatian dogs born between 1988 and 2009. Data were provided by the Dalmatian kennel clubs which are members of the German Association for Dog Breeding and Husbandry (VDH). The hearing status for all dogs was evaluated using brainstem auditory evoked potentials. The reliability using the prediction error variance of breeding values and the realized reliability of the prediction of the phenotype of future progeny born in each one year between 2006 and 2009 were used as parameters to evaluate the goodness of prediction through breeding values. All animals from the previous birth years were used for prediction of the breeding values of the progeny in each of the up-coming birth years. The breeding values based on pedigree records achieved an average reliability of 0.19 for the future 1951 progeny. The predictive accuracy (R2) for the hearing status of single future progeny was at 1.3%. Combining breeding values for littermates increased the predictive accuracy to 3.5%. Corresponding values for maternal and paternal half-sib groups were at 3.2 and 7.3%. The use of breeding values for planned matings increases the phenotypic selection response over mass selection. The breeding values of sires may be used for planned matings because reliabilities and predictive accuracies for future paternal progeny groups were highest.

Evaluation of ceramics for stator application: Gas turbine engine report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Trela, W.; Havstad, P. H.

1978-01-01

Current ceramic materials, component fabrication processes, and reliability prediction capability for ceramic stators in an automotive gas turbine engine environment are assessed. Simulated engine duty cycle testing of stators conducted at temperatures up to 1093 C is discussed. Materials evaluated are SiC and Si3N4 fabricated from two near-net-shape processes: slip casting and injection molding. Stators for durability cycle evaluation and test specimens for material property characterization, and reliability prediction model prepared to predict stator performance in the simulated engine environment are considered. The status and description of the work performed for the reliability prediction modeling, stator fabrication, material property characterization, and ceramic stator evaluation efforts are reported.

Determining Functional Reliability of Pyrotechnic Mechanical Devices

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bement, Laurence J.; Multhaup, Herbert A.

1997-01-01

This paper describes a new approach for evaluating mechanical performance and predicting the mechanical functional reliability of pyrotechnic devices. Not included are other possible failure modes, such as the initiation of the pyrotechnic energy source. The requirement of hundreds or thousands of consecutive, successful tests on identical components for reliability predictions, using the generally accepted go/no-go statistical approach routinely ignores physics of failure. The approach described in this paper begins with measuring, understanding and controlling mechanical performance variables. Then, the energy required to accomplish the function is compared to that delivered by the pyrotechnic energy source to determine mechanical functional margin. Finally, the data collected in establishing functional margin is analyzed to predict mechanical functional reliability, using small-sample statistics. A careful application of this approach can provide considerable cost improvements and understanding over that of go/no-go statistics. Performance and the effects of variables can be defined, and reliability predictions can be made by evaluating 20 or fewer units. The application of this approach to a pin puller used on a successful NASA mission is provided as an example.

MADRS symptom subtypes in ECT-treated depressed patients: relationship to response and subsequent ECT.

PubMed

Spashett, Renee; Fernie, Gordon; Reid, Ian C; Cameron, Isobel M

2014-09-01

This study aimed to explore the relationship of Montgomery-Åsberg Depression Rating Scale (MADRS) symptom subtypes with response to electroconvulsive therapy (ECT) and subsequent ECT treatment within 12 months. A consecutive sample of 414 patients with depression receiving ECT in the North East of Scotland was assessed by retrospective chart review. Response rate was defined as greater than or equal to 50% decrease in pretreatment total MADRS score or a posttreatment total MADRS less than or equal to 10. Principal component analyses were conducted on a sample with psychotic features (n = 124) and a sample without psychotic features (n = 290). Scores on extracted factor subscales, clinical and demographic characteristics were assessed for association with response and subsequent ECT treatment within 12 months. Where more than 1 variable was associated with response or subsequent ECT, logistic regression analysis was applied. MADRS symptom subtypes formed 3 separate factors in both samples. Logistic regression revealed older age and high "Despondency" subscale score predicted response in the nonpsychotic group. Older age alone predicted response in the group with psychotic features. Nonpsychotic patients subsequently re-treated with ECT were older than those not prescribed subsequent ECT. No association of variables emerged with subsequent ECT treatment in the group with psychotic features. Being of older age and the presence of psychotic features predicted response. Presence of psychotic features alone predicted subsequent retreatment. Subscale scores of the MADRS are of limited use in predicting which patients with depression will respond to ECT, with the exception of "Despondency" subscale scores in patients without psychotic features.

Response styles, bipolar risk, and mood in students: The Behaviours Checklist.

PubMed

Fisk, Claire; Dodd, Alyson L; Collins, Alan

2015-12-01

An Integrative Cognitive Model of mood swings and bipolar disorder proposes that extreme positive and negative appraisals about internal states trigger ascent and descent behaviours, contributing to the onset and maintenance of mood swings. This study investigated the reliability and validity of a new inventory, the Behaviours Checklist (BC), by measuring associations with appraisals, response styles to positive and negative affect, bipolar risk, mania, and depression. Correlational analogue study. Students (N = 134) completed the BC alongside measures of appraisals, response styles to positive and negative mood, mania, depression, and hypomanic personality (bipolar risk). The BC was of adequate reliability and showed good validity. Ascent behaviours and appraisals predicted bipolar risk, whereas descent behaviours and appraisals were associated with depression. Appraisals, ascent, and descent behaviours may play an important role in the development and maintenance of mood swings. Limitations and research recommendations are outlined. Extreme positive and negative appraisals of internal states, and subsequent behavioural responses (ascent and descent behaviours), are associated with bipolar risk and bipolar mood symptoms in a student sample. These processes are involved with mood dysregulation in clinical populations as well as bipolar risk in students, with implications for mood management. © 2015 The British Psychological Society.

The reliability, validity, sensitivity, specificity and predictive values of the Chinese version of the Rowland Universal Dementia Assessment Scale.

PubMed

Chen, Chia-Wei; Chu, Hsin; Tsai, Chia-Fen; Yang, Hui-Ling; Tsai, Jui-Chen; Chung, Min-Huey; Liao, Yuan-Mei; Chi, Mei-Ju; Chou, Kuei-Ru

2015-11-01

The purpose of this study was to translate the Rowland Universal Dementia Assessment Scale into Chinese and to evaluate the psychometric properties (reliability and validity) and the diagnostic properties (sensitivity, specificity and predictive values) of the Chinese version of the Rowland Universal Dementia Assessment Scale. The accurate detection of early dementia requires screening tools with favourable cross-cultural linguistic and appropriate sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values, particularly for Chinese-speaking populations. This was a cross-sectional, descriptive study. Overall, 130 participants suspected to have cognitive impairment were enrolled in the study. A test-retest for determining reliability was scheduled four weeks after the initial test. Content validity was determined by five experts, whereas construct validity was established by using contrasted group technique. The participants' clinical diagnoses were used as the standard in calculating the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value. The study revealed that the Chinese version of the Rowland Universal Dementia Assessment Scale exhibited a test-retest reliability of 0.90, an internal consistency reliability of 0.71, an inter-rater reliability (kappa value) of 0.88 and a content validity index of 0.97. Both the patients and healthy contrast group exhibited significant differences in their cognitive ability. The optimal cut-off points for the Chinese version of the Rowland Universal Dementia Assessment Scale in the test for mild cognitive impairment and dementia were 24 and 22, respectively; moreover, for these two conditions, the sensitivities of the scale were 0.79 and 0.76, the specificities were 0.91 and 0.81, the areas under the curve were 0.85 and 0.78, the positive predictive values were 0.99 and 0.83 and the negative predictive values were 0.96 and 0.91 respectively. The Chinese version of the Rowland Universal Dementia Assessment Scale exhibited sound reliability, validity, sensitivity, specificity and predictive values. This scale can help clinical staff members to quickly and accurately diagnose cognitive impairment and provide appropriate treatment as early as possible. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A decomposition model and voxel selection framework for fMRI analysis to predict neural response of visual stimuli.

PubMed

Raut, Savita V; Yadav, Dinkar M

2018-03-28

This paper presents an fMRI signal analysis methodology using geometric mean curve decomposition (GMCD) and mutual information-based voxel selection framework. Previously, the fMRI signal analysis has been conducted using empirical mean curve decomposition (EMCD) model and voxel selection on raw fMRI signal. The erstwhile methodology loses frequency component, while the latter methodology suffers from signal redundancy. Both challenges are addressed by our methodology in which the frequency component is considered by decomposing the raw fMRI signal using geometric mean rather than arithmetic mean and the voxels are selected from EMCD signal using GMCD components, rather than raw fMRI signal. The proposed methodologies are adopted for predicting the neural response. Experimentations are conducted in the openly available fMRI data of six subjects, and comparisons are made with existing decomposition models and voxel selection frameworks. Subsequently, the effect of degree of selected voxels and the selection constraints are analyzed. The comparative results and the analysis demonstrate the superiority and the reliability of the proposed methodology.

Explaining the relationship between religiousness and substance use: self-control matters.

PubMed

DeWall, C Nathan; Pond, Richard S; Carter, Evan C; McCullough, Michael E; Lambert, Nathaniel M; Fincham, Frank D; Nezlek, John B

2014-08-01

Religiousness is reliably associated with lower substance use, but little research has examined whether self-control helps explain why religiousness predicts lower substance use. Building on prior theoretical work, our studies suggest that self-control mediates the relationship between religiousness and a variety of substance-use behaviors. Study 1 showed that daily prayer predicted lower alcohol use on subsequent days. In Study 2, religiousness related to lower alcohol use, which was mediated by self-control. Study 3 replicated this mediational pattern using a behavioral measure of self-control. Using a longitudinal design, Study 4 revealed that self-control mediated the relationship between religiousness and lower alcohol use 6 weeks later. Study 5 replicated this mediational pattern again and showed that it remained significant after controlling for trait mindfulness. Studies 6 and 7 replicated and extended these effects to both alcohol and various forms of drug use among community and cross-cultural adult samples. These findings offer novel evidence regarding the role of self-control in explaining why religiousness is associated with lower substance use.

Reliability analysis of structural ceramics subjected to biaxial flexure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chao, Luen-Yuan; Shetty, Dinesh K.

1991-01-01

The reliability of alumina disks subjected to biaxial flexure is predicted on the basis of statistical fracture theory using a critical strain energy release rate fracture criterion. Results on a sintered silicon nitride are consistent with reliability predictions based on pore-initiated penny-shaped cracks with preferred orientation normal to the maximum principal stress. Assumptions with regard to flaw types and their orientations in each ceramic can be justified by fractography. It is shown that there are no universal guidelines for selecting fracture criteria or assuming flaw orientations in reliability analyses.

A novel method for landslide displacement prediction by integrating advanced computational intelligence algorithms.

PubMed

Zhou, Chao; Yin, Kunlong; Cao, Ying; Ahmed, Bayes; Fu, Xiaolin

2018-05-08

Landslide displacement prediction is considered as an essential component for developing early warning systems. The modelling of conventional forecast methods requires enormous monitoring data that limit its application. To conduct accurate displacement prediction with limited data, a novel method is proposed and applied by integrating three computational intelligence algorithms namely: the wavelet transform (WT), the artificial bees colony (ABC), and the kernel-based extreme learning machine (KELM). At first, the total displacement was decomposed into several sub-sequences with different frequencies using the WT. Next each sub-sequence was predicted separately by the KELM whose parameters were optimized by the ABC. Finally the predicted total displacement was obtained by adding all the predicted sub-sequences. The Shuping landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir area in China was taken as a case study. The performance of the new method was compared with the WT-ELM, ABC-KELM, ELM, and the support vector machine (SVM) methods. Results show that the prediction accuracy can be improved by decomposing the total displacement into sub-sequences with various frequencies and by predicting them separately. The ABC-KELM algorithm shows the highest prediction capacity followed by the ELM and SVM. Overall, the proposed method achieved excellent performance both in terms of accuracy and stability.

The reliability of psychiatric diagnosis in the emergency room.

PubMed

Lieberman, P B; Baker, F M

1985-03-01

The authors compared the diagnoses made for 50 patients in an emergency room with those made during a subsequent inpatient hospitalization. They found an acceptable level of reliability for broad diagnostic categories, such as psychosis, depression, and alcoholism. The authors believe such diagnostic reliability is sufficient for emergency assessment and triage. However, the diagnosis of more specific subtypes of mental illness, such as schizophrenia and bipolar disorder, were not made reliably in the emergency room. The authors point out the risk of diagnostic labeling, and suggest that the tendency to overlook nonalcoholic substance abuse deserves special attention.

Automated Characterization of Rotating MHD Modes and Subsequent Locking in a Tokamak

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riquezes, Juan; Sabbagh, Steven; Berkery, Jack

2016-10-01

Disruption avoidance in tokamaks is highly desired to maintain steady plasma operation, and is critical for future reactor-scale devices, such as ITER, to avoid potential damage to device components. This high priority research is being conducted at PPPL by analyzing data from NSTX and its upgrade, NSTX-U. A key cause of disruptions is the physical event chain that comprises the appearance of rotating MHD modes, their slowing by resonant field drag mechanisms, and their subsequent locking. The present research aims to define algorithms to automatically find and characterize such physical event chains in the machine database. Characteristics such as identification of a mode locking time based on a loss of torque balance and bifurcation of the mode rotation frequency are examined to determine the reliability of such events in predicting disruptions. A goal is to detect such behavior as early as possible during a plasma discharge, and to further examine potential ways to forecast it. This capability could be used to provide a warning to use active mode control as a disruption avoidance mechanism, or to trigger a controlled plasma shutdown if desired. Supported by US DOE Contracts DE-FG02-99ER54524 and DE-AC02-09CH11466.

Reliability Prediction Approaches For Domestic Intelligent Electric Energy Meter Based on IEC62380

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Ning; Tong, Guanghua; Yang, Jincheng; Sun, Guodong; Han, Dongjun; Wang, Guixian

2018-01-01

The reliability of intelligent electric energy meter is a crucial issue considering its large calve application and safety of national intelligent grid. This paper developed a procedure of reliability prediction for domestic intelligent electric energy meter according to IEC62380, especially to identify the determination of model parameters combining domestic working conditions. A case study was provided to show the effectiveness and validation.

Understanding Interrater Reliability and Validity of Risk Assessment Tools Used to Predict Adverse Clinical Events.

PubMed

Siedlecki, Sandra L; Albert, Nancy M

This article will describe how to assess interrater reliability and validity of risk assessment tools, using easy-to-follow formulas, and to provide calculations that demonstrate principles discussed. Clinical nurse specialists should be able to identify risk assessment tools that provide high-quality interrater reliability and the highest validity for predicting true events of importance to clinical settings. Making best practice recommendations for assessment tool use is critical to high-quality patient care and safe practices that impact patient outcomes and nursing resources. Optimal risk assessment tool selection requires knowledge about interrater reliability and tool validity. The clinical nurse specialist will understand the reliability and validity issues associated with risk assessment tools, and be able to evaluate tools using basic calculations. Risk assessment tools are developed to objectively predict quality and safety events and ultimately reduce the risk of event occurrence through preventive interventions. To ensure high-quality tool use, clinical nurse specialists must critically assess tool properties. The better the tool's ability to predict adverse events, the more likely that event risk is mediated. Interrater reliability and validity assessment is relatively an easy skill to master and will result in better decisions when selecting or making recommendations for risk assessment tool use.

Reliability prediction of ontology-based service compositions using Petri net and time series models.

PubMed

Li, Jia; Xia, Yunni; Luo, Xin

2014-01-01

OWL-S, one of the most important Semantic Web service ontologies proposed to date, provides a core ontological framework and guidelines for describing the properties and capabilities of their web services in an unambiguous, computer interpretable form. Predicting the reliability of composite service processes specified in OWL-S allows service users to decide whether the process meets the quantitative quality requirement. In this study, we consider the runtime quality of services to be fluctuating and introduce a dynamic framework to predict the runtime reliability of services specified in OWL-S, employing the Non-Markovian stochastic Petri net (NMSPN) and the time series model. The framework includes the following steps: obtaining the historical response times series of individual service components; fitting these series with a autoregressive-moving-average-model (ARMA for short) and predicting the future firing rates of service components; mapping the OWL-S process into a NMSPN model; employing the predicted firing rates as the model input of NMSPN and calculating the normal completion probability as the reliability estimate. In the case study, a comparison between the static model and our approach based on experimental data is presented and it is shown that our approach achieves higher prediction accuracy.

Conformal Prediction Based on K-Nearest Neighbors for Discrimination of Ginsengs by a Home-Made Electronic Nose

PubMed Central

Sun, Xiyang; Miao, Jiacheng; Wang, You; Luo, Zhiyuan; Li, Guang

2017-01-01

An estimate on the reliability of prediction in the applications of electronic nose is essential, which has not been paid enough attention. An algorithm framework called conformal prediction is introduced in this work for discriminating different kinds of ginsengs with a home-made electronic nose instrument. Nonconformity measure based on k-nearest neighbors (KNN) is implemented separately as underlying algorithm of conformal prediction. In offline mode, the conformal predictor achieves a classification rate of 84.44% based on 1NN and 80.63% based on 3NN, which is better than that of simple KNN. In addition, it provides an estimate of reliability for each prediction. In online mode, the validity of predictions is guaranteed, which means that the error rate of region predictions never exceeds the significance level set by a user. The potential of this framework for detecting borderline examples and outliers in the application of E-nose is also investigated. The result shows that conformal prediction is a promising framework for the application of electronic nose to make predictions with reliability and validity. PMID:28805721

Potential Seasonal Predictability for Winter Storms over Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wild, Simon; Befort, Daniel J.; Leckebusch, Gregor C.

2017-04-01

Reliable seasonal forecasts of strong extra-tropical cyclones and windstorms would have great social and economical benefits, as these events are the most costly natural hazards over Europe. In a previous study we have shown good agreement of spatial climatological distributions of extra-tropical cyclones and wind storms in state-of-the-art multi-member seasonal prediction systems with reanalysis. We also found significant seasonal prediction skill of extra-tropical cyclones and windstorms affecting numerous European countries. We continue this research by investigating the mechanisms and precursor conditions (primarily over the North Atlantic) on a seasonal time scale leading to enhanced extra-tropical cyclone activity and winter storm frequency over Europe. Our results regarding mechanisms show that an increased surface temperature gradient at the western edge of the North Atlantic can be related to enhanced winter storm frequency further downstream causing for example a greater number of storms over the British Isles, as observed in winter 2013-14.The so-called "Horseshoe Index", a SST tripole anomaly pattern over the North Atlantic in the summer months can also cause a higher number of winter storms over Europe in the subsequent winter. We will show results of AMIP-type sensitivity experiments using an AGCM (ECHAM5), supporting this hypothesis. Finally we will analyse whether existing seasonal forecast systems are able to capture these identified mechanisms and precursor conditions affecting the models' seasonal prediction skill.

Prediction of Compressional, Shear, and Stoneley Wave Velocities from Conventional Well Log Data Using a Committee Machine with Intelligent Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asoodeh, Mojtaba; Bagheripour, Parisa

2012-01-01

Measurement of compressional, shear, and Stoneley wave velocities, carried out by dipole sonic imager (DSI) logs, provides invaluable data in geophysical interpretation, geomechanical studies and hydrocarbon reservoir characterization. The presented study proposes an improved methodology for making a quantitative formulation between conventional well logs and sonic wave velocities. First, sonic wave velocities were predicted from conventional well logs using artificial neural network, fuzzy logic, and neuro-fuzzy algorithms. Subsequently, a committee machine with intelligent systems was constructed by virtue of hybrid genetic algorithm-pattern search technique while outputs of artificial neural network, fuzzy logic and neuro-fuzzy models were used as inputs of the committee machine. It is capable of improving the accuracy of final prediction through integrating the outputs of aforementioned intelligent systems. The hybrid genetic algorithm-pattern search tool, embodied in the structure of committee machine, assigns a weight factor to each individual intelligent system, indicating its involvement in overall prediction of DSI parameters. This methodology was implemented in Asmari formation, which is the major carbonate reservoir rock of Iranian oil field. A group of 1,640 data points was used to construct the intelligent model, and a group of 800 data points was employed to assess the reliability of the proposed model. The results showed that the committee machine with intelligent systems performed more effectively compared with individual intelligent systems performing alone.

Multi-jet merged top-pair production including electroweak corrections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gütschow, Christian; Lindert, Jonas M.; Schönherr, Marek

2018-04-01

We present theoretical predictions for the production of top-quark pairs in association with jets at the LHC including electroweak (EW) corrections. First, we present and compare differential predictions at the fixed-order level for t\\bar{t} and t\\bar{t}+ {jet} production at the LHC considering the dominant NLO EW corrections of order O(α_{s}^2 α ) and O(α_{s}^3 α ) respectively together with all additional subleading Born and one-loop contributions. The NLO EW corrections are enhanced at large energies and in particular alter the shape of the top transverse momentum distribution, whose reliable modelling is crucial for many searches for new physics at the energy frontier. Based on the fixed-order results we motivate an approximation of the EW corrections valid at the percent level, that allows us to readily incorporate the EW corrections in the MePs@Nlo framework of Sherpa combined with OpenLoops. Subsequently, we present multi-jet merged parton-level predictions for inclusive top-pair production incorporating NLO QCD + EW corrections to t\\bar{t} and t\\bar{t}+ {jet}. Finally, we compare at the particle-level against a recent 8 TeV measurement of the top transverse momentum distribution performed by ATLAS in the lepton + jet channel. We find very good agreement between the Monte Carlo prediction and the data when the EW corrections are included.

Thermal-Structural Analysis of PICA Tiles for Solar Tower Test

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Agrawal, Parul; Empey, Daniel M.; Squire, Thomas H.

2009-01-01

Thermal protection materials used in spacecraft heatshields are subjected to severe thermal and mechanical loading environments during re-entry into earth atmosphere. In order to investigate the reliability of PICA tiles in the presence of high thermal gradients as well as mechanical loads, the authors designed and conducted solar-tower tests. This paper presents the design and analysis work for this tests series. Coupled non-linear thermal-mechanical finite element analyses was conducted to estimate in-depth temperature distribution and stress contours for various cases. The first set of analyses performed on isolated PICA tile showed that stresses generated during the tests were below the PICA allowable limit and should not lead to any catastrophic failure during the test. The tests results were consistent with analytical predictions. The temperature distribution and magnitude of the measured strains were also consistent with predicted values. The second test series is designed to test the arrayed PICA tiles with various gap-filler materials. A nonlinear contact method is used to model the complex geometry with various tiles. The analyses for these coupons predict the stress contours in PICA and inside gap fillers. Suitable mechanical loads for this architecture will be predicted, which can be applied during the test to exceed the allowable limits and demonstrate failure modes. Thermocouple and strain-gauge data obtained from the solar tower tests will be used for subsequent analyses and validation of FEM models.

Predicting health care utilization in marginalized populations: Black, female, street-based sex workers.

PubMed

Varga, Leah M; Surratt, Hilary L

2014-01-01

Patterns of social and structural factors experienced by vulnerable populations may negatively affect willingness and ability to seek out health care services, and ultimately, their health. The outcome variable was utilization of health care services in the previous 12 months. Using Andersen's Behavioral Model for Vulnerable Populations, we examined self-reported data on utilization of health care services among a sample of 546 Black, street-based, female sex workers in Miami, Florida. To evaluate the impact of each domain of the model on predicting health care utilization, domains were included in the logistic regression analysis by blocks using the traditional variables first and then adding the vulnerable domain variables. The most consistent variables predicting health care utilization were having a regular source of care and self-rated health. The model that included only enabling variables was the most efficient model in predicting health care utilization. Any type of resource, link, or connection to or with an institution, or any consistent point of care, contributes significantly to health care utilization behaviors. A consistent and reliable source for health care may increase health care utilization and subsequently decrease health disparities among vulnerable and marginalized populations, as well as contribute to public health efforts that encourage preventive health. Copyright © 2014 Jacobs Institute of Women's Health. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

HomPPI: a class of sequence homology based protein-protein interface prediction methods

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Although homology-based methods are among the most widely used methods for predicting the structure and function of proteins, the question as to whether interface sequence conservation can be effectively exploited in predicting protein-protein interfaces has been a subject of debate. Results We studied more than 300,000 pair-wise alignments of protein sequences from structurally characterized protein complexes, including both obligate and transient complexes. We identified sequence similarity criteria required for accurate homology-based inference of interface residues in a query protein sequence. Based on these analyses, we developed HomPPI, a class of sequence homology-based methods for predicting protein-protein interface residues. We present two variants of HomPPI: (i) NPS-HomPPI (Non partner-specific HomPPI), which can be used to predict interface residues of a query protein in the absence of knowledge of the interaction partner; and (ii) PS-HomPPI (Partner-specific HomPPI), which can be used to predict the interface residues of a query protein with a specific target protein. Our experiments on a benchmark dataset of obligate homodimeric complexes show that NPS-HomPPI can reliably predict protein-protein interface residues in a given protein, with an average correlation coefficient (CC) of 0.76, sensitivity of 0.83, and specificity of 0.78, when sequence homologs of the query protein can be reliably identified. NPS-HomPPI also reliably predicts the interface residues of intrinsically disordered proteins. Our experiments suggest that NPS-HomPPI is competitive with several state-of-the-art interface prediction servers including those that exploit the structure of the query proteins. The partner-specific classifier, PS-HomPPI can, on a large dataset of transient complexes, predict the interface residues of a query protein with a specific target, with a CC of 0.65, sensitivity of 0.69, and specificity of 0.70, when homologs of both the query and the target can be reliably identified. The HomPPI web server is available at http://homppi.cs.iastate.edu/. Conclusions Sequence homology-based methods offer a class of computationally efficient and reliable approaches for predicting the protein-protein interface residues that participate in either obligate or transient interactions. For query proteins involved in transient interactions, the reliability of interface residue prediction can be improved by exploiting knowledge of putative interaction partners. PMID:21682895

Externalizing Problems in Childhood and Adolescence Predict Subsequent Educational Achievement but for Different Genetic and Environmental Reasons

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lewis, Gary J.; Asbury, Kathryn; Plomin, Robert

2017-01-01

Background: Childhood behavior problems predict subsequent educational achievement; however, little research has examined the etiology of these links using a longitudinal twin design. Moreover, it is unknown whether genetic and environmental innovations provide incremental prediction for educational achievement from childhood to adolescence.…

PAI-OFF: A new proposal for online flood forecasting in flash flood prone catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmitz, G. H.; Cullmann, J.

2008-10-01

SummaryThe Process Modelling and Artificial Intelligence for Online Flood Forecasting (PAI-OFF) methodology combines the reliability of physically based, hydrologic/hydraulic modelling with the operational advantages of artificial intelligence. These operational advantages are extremely low computation times and straightforward operation. The basic principle of the methodology is to portray process models by means of ANN. We propose to train ANN flood forecasting models with synthetic data that reflects the possible range of storm events. To this end, establishing PAI-OFF requires first setting up a physically based hydrologic model of the considered catchment and - optionally, if backwater effects have a significant impact on the flow regime - a hydrodynamic flood routing model of the river reach in question. Both models are subsequently used for simulating all meaningful and flood relevant storm scenarios which are obtained from a catchment specific meteorological data analysis. This provides a database of corresponding input/output vectors which is then completed by generally available hydrological and meteorological data for characterizing the catchment state prior to each storm event. This database subsequently serves for training both a polynomial neural network (PoNN) - portraying the rainfall-runoff process - and a multilayer neural network (MLFN), which mirrors the hydrodynamic flood wave propagation in the river. These two ANN models replace the hydrological and hydrodynamic model in the operational mode. After presenting the theory, we apply PAI-OFF - essentially consisting of the coupled "hydrologic" PoNN and "hydrodynamic" MLFN - to the Freiberger Mulde catchment in the Erzgebirge (Ore-mountains) in East Germany (3000 km 2). Both the demonstrated computational efficiency and the prediction reliability underline the potential of the new PAI-OFF methodology for online flood forecasting.

Molecular Dynamics Simulations and Kinetic Measurements to Estimate and Predict Protein-Ligand Residence Times.

PubMed

Mollica, Luca; Theret, Isabelle; Antoine, Mathias; Perron-Sierra, Françoise; Charton, Yves; Fourquez, Jean-Marie; Wierzbicki, Michel; Boutin, Jean A; Ferry, Gilles; Decherchi, Sergio; Bottegoni, Giovanni; Ducrot, Pierre; Cavalli, Andrea

2016-08-11

Ligand-target residence time is emerging as a key drug discovery parameter because it can reliably predict drug efficacy in vivo. Experimental approaches to binding and unbinding kinetics are nowadays available, but we still lack reliable computational tools for predicting kinetics and residence time. Most attempts have been based on brute-force molecular dynamics (MD) simulations, which are CPU-demanding and not yet particularly accurate. We recently reported a new scaled-MD-based protocol, which showed potential for residence time prediction in drug discovery. Here, we further challenged our procedure's predictive ability by applying our methodology to a series of glucokinase activators that could be useful for treating type 2 diabetes mellitus. We combined scaled MD with experimental kinetics measurements and X-ray crystallography, promptly checking the protocol's reliability by directly comparing computational predictions and experimental measures. The good agreement highlights the potential of our scaled-MD-based approach as an innovative method for computationally estimating and predicting drug residence times.

Biochemical methane potential prediction of plant biomasses: Comparing chemical composition versus near infrared methods and linear versus non-linear models.

PubMed

Godin, Bruno; Mayer, Frédéric; Agneessens, Richard; Gerin, Patrick; Dardenne, Pierre; Delfosse, Philippe; Delcarte, Jérôme

2015-01-01

The reliability of different models to predict the biochemical methane potential (BMP) of various plant biomasses using a multispecies dataset was compared. The most reliable prediction models of the BMP were those based on the near infrared (NIR) spectrum compared to those based on the chemical composition. The NIR predictions of local (specific regression and non-linear) models were able to estimate quantitatively, rapidly, cheaply and easily the BMP. Such a model could be further used for biomethanation plant management and optimization. The predictions of non-linear models were more reliable compared to those of linear models. The presentation form (green-dried, silage-dried and silage-wet form) of biomasses to the NIR spectrometer did not influence the performances of the NIR prediction models. The accuracy of the BMP method should be improved to enhance further the BMP prediction models. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

How is mortality affected by money, marriage, and stress?

PubMed

Gardner, Jonathan; Oswald, Andrew

2004-11-01

It is believed that the length of a person's life depends on a mixture of economic and social factors. Yet the relative importance of these is still debated. We provide recent British evidence that marriage has a strong positive effect on longevity. Economics matters less. After controlling for health at the start of the 1990s, we cannot find reliable evidence that income affects the probability of death in the subsequent decade. Although marriage keeps people alive, it does not appear to work through a reduction of stress levels. Greater levels of psychological distress (as measured by General Health Questionnaire (GHQ) stress scores) cannot explain why unmarried people die younger. For women, however, we do find that mental strain itself is dangerous. High GHQ stress scores help to predict the probability of an early death.

The paradox of verbal autopsy in cause of death assignment: symptom question unreliability but predictive accuracy.

PubMed

Serina, Peter; Riley, Ian; Hernandez, Bernardo; Flaxman, Abraham D; Praveen, Devarsetty; Tallo, Veronica; Joshi, Rohina; Sanvictores, Diozele; Stewart, Andrea; Mooney, Meghan D; Murray, Christopher J L; Lopez, Alan D

2016-01-01

We believe that it is important that governments understand the reliability of the mortality data which they have at their disposable to guide policy debates. In many instances, verbal autopsy (VA) will be the only source of mortality data for populations, yet little is known about how the accuracy of VA diagnoses is affected by the reliability of the symptom responses. We previously described the effect of the duration of time between death and VA administration on VA validity. In this paper, using the same dataset, we assess the relationship between the reliability and completeness of symptom responses and the reliability and accuracy of cause of death (COD) prediction. The study was based on VAs in the Population Health Metrics Research Consortium (PHMRC) VA Validation Dataset from study sites in Bohol and Manila, Philippines and Andhra Pradesh, India. The initial interview was repeated within 3-52 months of death. Question responses were assessed for reliability and completeness between the two survey rounds. COD was predicted by Tariff Method. A sample of 4226 VAs was collected for 2113 decedents, including 1394 adults, 349 children, and 370 neonates. Mean question reliability was unexpectedly low ( kappa  = 0.447): 42.5 % of responses positive at the first interview were negative at the second, and 47.9 % of responses positive at the second had been negative at the first. Question reliability was greater for the short form of the PHMRC instrument ( kappa  = 0.497) and when analyzed at the level of the individual decedent ( kappa  = 0.610). Reliability at the level of the individual decedent was associated with COD predictive reliability and predictive accuracy. Families give coherent accounts of events leading to death but the details vary from interview to interview for the same case. Accounts are accurate but inconsistent; different subsets of symptoms are identified on each occasion. However, there are sufficient accurate and consistent subsets of symptoms to enable the Tariff Method to assign a COD. Questions which contributed most to COD prediction were also the most reliable and consistent across repeat interviews; these have been included in the short form VA questionnaire. Accuracy and reliability of diagnosis for an individual death depend on the quality of interview. This has considerable implications for the progressive roll out of VAs into civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) systems.

Sentinel-2A: Orbit Modelling Improvements and their Impact on the Orbit Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peter, Heike; Otten, Michiel; Fernández Sánchez, Jaime; Fernández Martín, Carlos; Féménias, Pierre

2016-07-01

Sentinel-2A is the second satellite of the European Copernicus Programme. The satellite has been launched on 23rd June 2015 and it is operational since mid October 2015. This optical mission carries a GPS receiver for precise orbit determination. The Copernicus POD (Precise Orbit Determination) Service is in charge of generating precise orbital products and auxiliary files for Sentinel-2A as well as for the Sentinel-1 and -3 missions. The accuracy requirements for the Sentinel-2A orbit products are not very stringent with 3 m in 3D (3 sigma) for the near real-time (NRT) orbit and 10 m in 2D (3 sigma) for the predicted orbit. The fulfilment of the orbit accuracy requirements is normally not an issue. The Copernicus POD Service aims, however, to provide the best possible orbits for all three Sentinel missions. Therefore, a sophisticated box-wing model is generated for the Sentinel-2 satellite as it is done for the other two missions as well. Additionally, the solar wing of the satellite is rewound during eclipse, which has to be modelled accordingly. The quality of the orbit prediction is dependent on the results of the orbit estimation performed before it. The values of the last estimation of each parameter is taken for the orbit propagation, i.e. estimating ten atmospheric drag coefficients per 24h, the value of the last coefficient is used as a fix parameter for the subsequent orbit prediction. The question is whether the prediction might be stabilised by, e.g. using an average value of all ten coefficients. This paper presents the status and the quality of the Sentinel-2 orbit determination in the operational environment of the Copernicus POD Service. The impact of the orbit model improvements on the NRT and predicted orbits is studied in detail. Changes in the orbit parametrization as well as in the settings for the orbit propagation are investigated. In addition, the impact of the quality of the input GPS orbit and clock product on the Sentinel-2A orbit prediction results is checked. The results of this study do not only improve the Sentinel-2 orbit products but will also support the generation of reliable orbit predictions for the Sentinel-3 mission. The Sentinel-3 satellite is equipped with a laser retro-reflector and reliable orbit predictions are, therefore, very important to guarantee a continuous support of the satellite laser tracking stations.

A discriminant analysis prediction model of non-syndromic cleft lip with or without cleft palate based on risk factors.

PubMed

Li, Huixia; Luo, Miyang; Luo, Jiayou; Zheng, Jianfei; Zeng, Rong; Du, Qiyun; Fang, Junqun; Ouyang, Na

2016-11-23

A risk prediction model of non-syndromic cleft lip with or without cleft palate (NSCL/P) was established by a discriminant analysis to predict the individual risk of NSCL/P in pregnant women. A hospital-based case-control study was conducted with 113 cases of NSCL/P and 226 controls without NSCL/P. The cases and the controls were obtained from 52 birth defects' surveillance hospitals in Hunan Province, China. A questionnaire was administered in person to collect the variables relevant to NSCL/P by face to face interviews. Logistic regression models were used to analyze the influencing factors of NSCL/P, and a stepwise Fisher discriminant analysis was subsequently used to construct the prediction model. In the univariate analysis, 13 influencing factors were related to NSCL/P, of which the following 8 influencing factors as predictors determined the discriminant prediction model: family income, maternal occupational hazards exposure, premarital medical examination, housing renovation, milk/soymilk intake in the first trimester of pregnancy, paternal occupational hazards exposure, paternal strong tea drinking, and family history of NSCL/P. The model had statistical significance (lambda = 0.772, chi-square = 86.044, df = 8, P < 0.001). Self-verification showed that 83.8 % of the participants were correctly predicted to be NSCL/P cases or controls with a sensitivity of 74.3 % and a specificity of 88.5 %. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was 0.846. The prediction model that was established using the risk factors of NSCL/P can be useful for predicting the risk of NSCL/P. Further research is needed to improve the model, and confirm the validity and reliability of the model.

Prediction of microRNAs Associated with Human Diseases Based on Weighted k Most Similar Neighbors

PubMed Central

Guo, Maozu; Guo, Yahong; Li, Jinbao; Ding, Jian; Liu, Yong; Dai, Qiguo; Li, Jin; Teng, Zhixia; Huang, Yufei

2013-01-01

Background The identification of human disease-related microRNAs (disease miRNAs) is important for further investigating their involvement in the pathogenesis of diseases. More experimentally validated miRNA-disease associations have been accumulated recently. On the basis of these associations, it is essential to predict disease miRNAs for various human diseases. It is useful in providing reliable disease miRNA candidates for subsequent experimental studies. Methodology/Principal Findings It is known that miRNAs with similar functions are often associated with similar diseases and vice versa. Therefore, the functional similarity of two miRNAs has been successfully estimated by measuring the semantic similarity of their associated diseases. To effectively predict disease miRNAs, we calculated the functional similarity by incorporating the information content of disease terms and phenotype similarity between diseases. Furthermore, the members of miRNA family or cluster are assigned higher weight since they are more probably associated with similar diseases. A new prediction method, HDMP, based on weighted k most similar neighbors is presented for predicting disease miRNAs. Experiments validated that HDMP achieved significantly higher prediction performance than existing methods. In addition, the case studies examining prostatic neoplasms, breast neoplasms, and lung neoplasms, showed that HDMP can uncover potential disease miRNA candidates. Conclusions The superior performance of HDMP can be attributed to the accurate measurement of miRNA functional similarity, the weight assignment based on miRNA family or cluster, and the effective prediction based on weighted k most similar neighbors. The online prediction and analysis tool is freely available at http://nclab.hit.edu.cn/hdmpred. PMID:23950912

A Systematic Review of the Reliability and Validity of Behavioural Tests Used to Assess Behavioural Characteristics Important in Working Dogs.

PubMed

Brady, Karen; Cracknell, Nina; Zulch, Helen; Mills, Daniel Simon

2018-01-01

Working dogs are selected based on predictions from tests that they will be able to perform specific tasks in often challenging environments. However, withdrawal from service in working dogs is still a big problem, bringing into question the reliability of the selection tests used to make these predictions. A systematic review was undertaken aimed at bringing together available information on the reliability and predictive validity of the assessment of behavioural characteristics used with working dogs to establish the quality of selection tests currently available for use to predict success in working dogs. The search procedures resulted in 16 papers meeting the criteria for inclusion. A large range of behaviour tests and parameters were used in the identified papers, and so behaviour tests and their underpinning constructs were grouped on the basis of their relationship with positive core affect (willingness to work, human-directed social behaviour, object-directed play tendencies) and negative core affect (human-directed aggression, approach withdrawal tendencies, sensitivity to aversives). We then examined the papers for reports of inter-rater reliability, within-session intra-rater reliability, test-retest validity and predictive validity. The review revealed a widespread lack of information relating to the reliability and validity of measures to assess behaviour and inconsistencies in terminologies, study parameters and indices of success. There is a need to standardise the reporting of these aspects of behavioural tests in order to improve the knowledge base of what characteristics are predictive of optimal performance in working dog roles, improving selection processes and reducing working dog redundancy. We suggest the use of a framework based on explaining the direct or indirect relationship of the test with core affect.

Potential for using regional and global datasets for national scale ecosystem service modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maxwell, Deborah; Jackson, Bethanna

2016-04-01

Ecosystem service models are increasingly being used by planners and policy makers to inform policy development and decisions about national-level resource management. Such models allow ecosystem services to be mapped and quantified, and subsequent changes to these services to be identified and monitored. In some cases, the impact of small scale changes can be modelled at a national scale, providing more detailed information to decision makers about where to best focus investment and management interventions that could address these issues, while moving toward national goals and/or targets. National scale modelling often uses national (or local) data (for example, soils, landcover and topographical information) as input. However, there are some places where fine resolution and/or high quality national datasets cannot be easily obtained, or do not even exist. In the absence of such detailed information, regional or global datasets could be used as input to such models. There are questions, however, about the usefulness of these coarser resolution datasets and the extent to which inaccuracies in this data may degrade predictions of existing and potential ecosystem service provision and subsequent decision making. Using LUCI (the Land Utilisation and Capability Indicator) as an example predictive model, we examine how the reliability of predictions change when national datasets of soil, landcover and topography are substituted with coarser scale regional and global datasets. We specifically look at how LUCI's predictions of where water services, such as flood risk, flood mitigation, erosion and water quality, change when national data inputs are replaced by regional and global datasets. Using the Conwy catchment, Wales, as a case study, the land cover products compared are the UK's Land Cover Map (2007), the European CORINE land cover map and the ESA global land cover map. Soils products include the National Soil Map of England and Wales (NatMap) and the European Soils Database. NEXTmap elevation data, which covers the UK and parts of continental Europe, are compared to global AsterDEM and SRTM30 topographical products. While the regional and global datasets can be used to fill gaps in data requirements, the coarser resolution of these datasets means that there is greater aggregation of information over larger areas. This loss of detail impacts on the reliability of model output, particularly where significant discrepancies between datasets exist. The implications of this loss of detail in terms of spatial planning and decision making is discussed. Finally, in the context of broader development the need for better nationally and globally available data to allow LUCI and other ecosystem models to become more globally applicable is highlighted.

4D offline PET-based treatment verification in scanned ion beam therapy: a phantom study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kurz, Christopher; Bauer, Julia; Unholtz, Daniel; Richter, Daniel; Stützer, Kristin; Bert, Christoph; Parodi, Katia

2015-08-01

At the Heidelberg Ion-Beam Therapy Center, patient irradiation with scanned proton and carbon ion beams is verified by offline positron emission tomography (PET) imaging: the {β+} -activity measured within the patient is compared to a prediction calculated on the basis of the treatment planning data in order to identify potential delivery errors. Currently, this monitoring technique is limited to the treatment of static target structures. However, intra-fractional organ motion imposes considerable additional challenges to scanned ion beam radiotherapy. In this work, the feasibility and potential of time-resolved (4D) offline PET-based treatment verification with a commercial full-ring PET/CT (x-ray computed tomography) device are investigated for the first time, based on an experimental campaign with moving phantoms. Motion was monitored during the gated beam delivery as well as the subsequent PET acquisition and was taken into account in the corresponding 4D Monte-Carlo simulations and data evaluation. Under the given experimental conditions, millimeter agreement between the prediction and measurement was found. Dosimetric consequences due to the phantom motion could be reliably identified. The agreement between PET measurement and prediction in the presence of motion was found to be similar as in static reference measurements, thus demonstrating the potential of 4D PET-based treatment verification for future clinical applications.

Coping with occupational stress: the role of optimism and coping flexibility.

PubMed

Reed, Daniel J

2016-01-01

The current study aimed at measuring whether coping flexibility is a reliable and valid construct in a UK sample and subsequently investigating the association between coping flexibility, optimism, and psychological health - measured by perceived stress and life satisfaction. A UK university undergraduate student sample (N=95) completed an online questionnaire. The study is among the first to examine the validity and reliability of the English version of a scale measuring coping flexibility in a Western population and is also the first to investigate the association between optimism and coping flexibility. The results revealed that the scale had good reliability overall; however, factor analysis revealed no support for the existing two-factor structure of the scale. Coping flexibility and optimism were found to be strongly correlated, and hierarchical regression analyses revealed that the interaction between them predicted a large proportion of the variance in both perceived stress and life satisfaction. In addition, structural equation modeling revealed that optimism completely mediated the relationship between coping flexibility and both perceived stress and life satisfaction. The findings add to the occupational stress literature to further our understanding of how optimism is important in psychological health. Furthermore, given that optimism is a personality trait, and consequently relatively stable, the study also provides preliminary support for the potential of targeting coping flexibility to improve psychological health in Western populations. These findings must be replicated, and further analyses of the English version of the Coping Flexibility Scale are needed.

Using species sensitivity distribution approach to assess the risks of commonly detected agricultural pesticides to Australia's tropical freshwater ecosystems.

PubMed

Pathiratne, Asoka; Kroon, Frederieke J

2016-02-01

To assess the potential impacts of agricultural pesticides on tropical freshwater ecosystems, the present study developed temperature-specific, freshwater species protection concentrations (i.e., ecotoxicity threshold values) for 8 pesticides commonly detected in Australia's tropical freshwaters. Because relevant toxicity data for native tropical freshwater species to assess the ecological risks were mostly absent, scientifically robust toxicity data obtained at ≥20 °C were used for ecologically relevant taxonomic groups representing primary producers and consumers. Species sensitivity distribution (SSD) curves were subsequently generated for predicted chronic exposure using Burrlioz 2.0 software with mixed chronic and converted acute data relevant to exposure conditions at ≥20 °C. Ecotoxicity threshold values for tropical freshwater ecosystem protection were generated for ametryn, atrazine, diuron, metolachlor, and imidacloprid (all moderate reliability), as well as simazine, hexazinone, and tebuthiuron (all low reliability). Using these SSD curves, the retrospective risk assessments for recently reported pesticide concentrations highlight that the herbicides ametryn, atrazine, and diuron are of major concern for ecological health in Australia's tropical freshwater ecosystems. The insecticide imidacloprid also appears to pose an emerging threat to the most sensitive species in tropical freshwater ecosystems. The exposed temperature-specific approach may be applied to develop water quality guideline values for other environmental contaminants detected in tropical freshwater ecosystems until reliable and relevant toxicity data are generated using representative native species. © 2015 SETAC.

The SPADE Symptom Cluster in Primary Care Patients With Chronic Pain.

PubMed

Davis, Lorie L; Kroenke, Kurt; Monahan, Patrick; Kean, Jacob; Stump, Timothy E

2016-05-01

Sleep disturbance, pain, anxiety, depression, and low energy/fatigue, the SPADE pentad, are the most prevalent and co-occurring symptoms in the general population and clinical practice. Co-occurrence of SPADE symptoms may produce additive impairment and negatively affect treatment response, potentially undermining patients' health and functioning. The purpose of this paper is to determine: (1) prevalence and comorbidity (ie, clustering) of SPADE symptoms; (2) internal reliability and construct validity of a composite SPADE symptom score derived from the Patient-Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System (PROMIS) measures; and (3) whether improvement in somatic symptom burden represented by a composite score predicted subsequent measures of functional status at 3 and 12 months follow-up. Secondary analysis of data from the Stepped Care to Optimize Pain care Effectiveness study, a randomized trial of a collaborative care intervention for Veterans with chronic pain. Most patients had multiple SPADE symptoms; only 9.6% of patients were monosymptomatic. The composite PROMIS symptom score had good internal reliability (Cronbach's alpha=0.86) and construct validity and strongly correlated with multiple measures of functional status; improvement in the composite score significantly correlated with higher scores for 5 of 6 functional status outcomes. The standardized error of measurement (SEM) for the composite T-score was 2.84, suggesting a 3-point difference in an individual's composite score may be clinically meaningful. Brief PROMIS measures may be useful in evaluating SPADE symptoms and overall symptom burden. Because symptom burden may predict functional status outcomes, better identification and management of comorbid symptoms may be warranted.

Exploring Depressive Personality Traits in Youth: Origins, Correlates, and Developmental Consequences

PubMed Central

Rudolph, Karen D.; Klein, Daniel N.

2009-01-01

Research suggests that depressive personality (DP) disorder may represent a persistent, trait-based form of depression that lies along an affective spectrum ranging from personality traits to diagnosable clinical disorders (Klein & Bessaha, 2009). A significant gap in this area of research concerns the development of DP and its applicability to youth. The present research explored the construct of DP traits in youth. Specifically, this study examined the reliability, stability, and validity of the construct, potential origins of DP traits, and the developmental consequences of DP traits. A sample of 143 youth (M age = 12.37 years, SD = 1.26) and their caregivers completed semi-structured interviews and questionnaires on two occasions, separated by a 12 month interval. The measure of DP traits was reliable and moderately stable over time. Providing evidence of construct validity, DP traits were associated with a network of constructs, including a negative self-focus, high negative and low positive emotionality, and heightened stress reactivity. Moreover, several potential origins of DP traits were identified, including a history of family adversity, maternal DP traits, and maternal depression. Consistent with hypotheses regarding their developmental significance, DP traits predicted the generation of stress and the emergence of depression (but not nondepressive psychopathology) during the pubertal transition. Finally, depression predicted subsequent DP traits, suggesting a reciprocal process whereby DP traits heighten risk for depression, which then exacerbates these traits. These findings support the construct of DP traits in youth, and suggest that these traits may be a useful addition to developmental models of risk for youth depression. PMID:19825262

The Predictive Accuracy of Verbal, Quantitative, and Nonverbal Reasoning Tests: Consequences for Talent Identification and Program Diversity

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lakin, Joni M.; Lohman, David F.

2011-01-01

Effective talent-identification procedures minimize the proportion of students whose subsequent performance indicates that they were mistakenly included in or excluded from the program. Classification errors occur when students who were predicted to excel subsequently do not excel or when students who were not predicted to excel do. Using a…

Vaginal birth after caesarean section prediction models: a UK comparative observational study.

PubMed

Mone, Fionnuala; Harrity, Conor; Mackie, Adam; Segurado, Ricardo; Toner, Brenda; McCormick, Timothy R; Currie, Aoife; McAuliffe, Fionnuala M

2015-10-01

Primarily, to assess the performance of three statistical models in predicting successful vaginal birth in patients attempting a trial of labour after one previous lower segment caesarean section (TOLAC). The statistically most reliable models were subsequently subjected to validation testing in a local antenatal population. A retrospective observational study was performed with study data collected from the Northern Ireland Maternity Service Database (NIMATs). The study population included all women that underwent a TOLAC (n=385) from 2010 to 2012 in a regional UK obstetric unit. Data was collected from the Northern Ireland Maternity Service Database (NIMATs). Area under the curve (AUC) and correlation analysis was performed. Of the three prediction models evaluated, AUC calculations for the Smith et al., Grobman et al. and Troyer and Parisi Models were 0.74, 0.72 and 0.65, respectively. Using the Smith et al. model, 52% of women had a low risk of caesarean section (CS) (predicted VBAC >72%) and 20% had a high risk of CS (predicted VBAC <60%), of whom 20% and 63% had delivery by CS. The fit between observed and predicted outcome in this study cohort using the Smith et al. and Grobman et al. models were greatest (Chi-square test, p=0.228 and 0.904), validating both within the population. The Smith et al. and Grobman et al. models could potentially be utilized within the UK to provide women with an informed choice when deciding on mode of delivery after a previous CS. Crown Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dynamic decision-making for reliability and maintenance analysis of manufacturing systems based on failure effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Ding; Zhang, Yingjie

2017-09-01

A framework for reliability and maintenance analysis of job shop manufacturing systems is proposed in this paper. An efficient preventive maintenance (PM) policy in terms of failure effects analysis (FEA) is proposed. Subsequently, reliability evaluation and component importance measure based on FEA are performed under the PM policy. A job shop manufacturing system is applied to validate the reliability evaluation and dynamic maintenance policy. Obtained results are compared with existed methods and the effectiveness is validated. Some vague understandings for issues such as network modelling, vulnerabilities identification, the evaluation criteria of repairable systems, as well as PM policy during manufacturing system reliability analysis are elaborated. This framework can help for reliability optimisation and rational maintenance resources allocation of job shop manufacturing systems.

Accuracy of genomic prediction using deregressed breeding values estimated from purebred and crossbred offspring phenotypes in pigs.

PubMed

Hidalgo, A M; Bastiaansen, J W M; Lopes, M S; Veroneze, R; Groenen, M A M; de Koning, D-J

2015-07-01

Genomic selection is applied to dairy cattle breeding to improve the genetic progress of purebred (PB) animals, whereas in pigs and poultry the target is a crossbred (CB) animal for which a different strategy appears to be needed. The source of information used to estimate the breeding values, i.e., using phenotypes of CB or PB animals, may affect the accuracy of prediction. The objective of our study was to assess the direct genomic value (DGV) accuracy of CB and PB pigs using different sources of phenotypic information. Data used were from 3 populations: 2,078 Dutch Landrace-based, 2,301 Large White-based, and 497 crossbreds from an F1 cross between the 2 lines. Two female reproduction traits were analyzed: gestation length (GLE) and total number of piglets born (TNB). Phenotypes used in the analyses originated from offspring of genotyped individuals. Phenotypes collected on CB and PB animals were analyzed as separate traits using a single-trait model. Breeding values were estimated separately for each trait in a pedigree BLUP analysis and subsequently deregressed. Deregressed EBV for each trait originating from different sources (CB or PB offspring) were used to study the accuracy of genomic prediction. Accuracy of prediction was computed as the correlation between DGV and the DEBV of the validation population. Accuracy of prediction within PB populations ranged from 0.43 to 0.62 across GLE and TNB. Accuracies to predict genetic merit of CB animals with one PB population in the training set ranged from 0.12 to 0.28, with the exception of using the CB offspring phenotype of the Dutch Landrace that resulted in an accuracy estimate around 0 for both traits. Accuracies to predict genetic merit of CB animals with both parental PB populations in the training set ranged from 0.17 to 0.30. We conclude that prediction within population and trait had good predictive ability regardless of the trait being the PB or CB performance, whereas using PB population(s) to predict genetic merit of CB animals had zero to moderate predictive ability. We observed that the DGV accuracy of CB animals when training on PB data was greater than or equal to training on CB data. However, when results are corrected for the different levels of reliabilities in the PB and CB training data, we showed that training on CB data does outperform PB data for the prediction of CB genetic merit, indicating that more CB animals should be phenotyped to increase the reliability and, consequently, accuracy of DGV for CB genetic merit.

Fatigue criterion to system design, life and reliability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zaretsky, E. V.

1985-01-01

A generalized methodology to structural life prediction, design, and reliability based upon a fatigue criterion is advanced. The life prediction methodology is based in part on work of W. Weibull and G. Lundberg and A. Palmgren. The approach incorporates the computed life of elemental stress volumes of a complex machine element to predict system life. The results of coupon fatigue testing can be incorporated into the analysis allowing for life prediction and component or structural renewal rates with reasonable statistical certainty.

Urinary type IV collagen excretion predicts subsequent declining renal function in type 2 diabetic patients with proteinuria.

PubMed

Katavetin, Pisut; Katavetin, Paravee; Susantitaphong, Paweena; Townamchai, Natavudh; Tiranathanagul, Khajohn; Tungsanga, Kriang; Eiam-Ong, Somchai

2010-08-01

Baseline urinary type IV collagen excretion was negatively correlated with the subsequent GFR change (r(s)=-0.39, p=0.04) in our cohort of 30 type 2 diabetic patients with proteinuria. Therefore, it could be used to predict subsequent declining renal function in type 2 diabetic patients with proteinuria. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

The (un)reliability of item-level semantic priming effects.

PubMed

Heyman, Tom; Bruninx, Anke; Hutchison, Keith A; Storms, Gert

2018-04-05

Many researchers have tried to predict semantic priming effects using a myriad of variables (e.g., prime-target associative strength or co-occurrence frequency). The idea is that relatedness varies across prime-target pairs, which should be reflected in the size of the priming effect (e.g., cat should prime dog more than animal does). However, it is only insightful to predict item-level priming effects if they can be measured reliably. Thus, in the present study we examined the split-half and test-retest reliabilities of item-level priming effects under conditions that should discourage the use of strategies. The resulting priming effects proved extremely unreliable, and reanalyses of three published priming datasets revealed similar cases of low reliability. These results imply that previous attempts to predict semantic priming were unlikely to be successful. However, one study with an unusually large sample size yielded more favorable reliability estimates, suggesting that big data, in terms of items and participants, should be the future for semantic priming research.

Negative spot sign in primary intracerebral hemorrhage: potential impact in reducing imaging.

PubMed

Romero, Javier M; Hito, Rania; Dejam, Andre; Ballesteros, Laia Sero; Cobos, Camilo Jaimes; Liévano, J Ortiz; Ciura, Viesha A; Barnaure, Isabelle; Ernst, Marielle; Liberato, Afonso P; Gonzalez, Gilberto R

2017-02-01

Intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) is one of the most devastating and costly diagnoses in the USA. ICH is a common diagnosis, accounting for 10-15 % of all strokes and affecting 20 out of 100,000 people. The CT angiography (CTA) spot sign, or contrast extravasation into the hematoma, is a reliable predictor of hematoma expansion, clinical deterioration, and increased mortality. Multiple studies have demonstrated a high negative predictive value (NPV) for ICH expansion in patients without spot sign. Our aim is to determine the absolute NPV of the spot sign and clinical characteristics of patients who had ICH expansion despite the absence of a spot sign. This information may be helpful in the development of a cost effective imaging protocol of patients with ICH. During a 3-year period, 204 patients with a CTA with primary intracerebral hemorrhage were evaluated for subsequent hematoma expansion during their hospitalization. Patients with intraventricular hemorrhage were excluded. Clinical characteristics and antithrombotic treatment on admission were noted. The number of follow-up NCCT was recorded. Of the resulting 123 patients, 108 had a negative spot sign and 7 of those patients subsequently had significant hematoma expansion, 6 of which were on antithrombotic therapy. The NPV of the CTA spot sign was calculated at 0.93. In patients without antithrombotic therapy, the NPV was 0.98. In summary, the negative predictive value of the CTA spot sign for expansion of ICH, in the absence of antithrombotic therapy and intraventricular hemorrhage (IVH) on admission, is very high. These results have the potential to redirect follow-up imaging protocols and reduce cost.

Reliability and Validity of the Work and Well-Being Inventory (WBI) for Employees.

PubMed

Vendrig, A A; Schaafsma, F G

2018-06-01

Purpose The purpose of this study is to measure the psychometric properties of the Work and Wellbeing Inventory (WBI) (in Dutch: VAR-2), a screening tool that is used within occupational health care and rehabilitation. Our research question focused on the reliability and validity of this inventory. Methods Over the years seven different samples of workers, patients and sick listed workers varying in size between 89 and 912 participants (total: 2514), were used to measure the test-retest reliability, the internal consistency, the construct and concurrent validity, and the criterion and predictive validity. Results The 13 scales displayed good internal consistency and test-retest reliability. The constructive validity of the WBI could clearly be demonstrated in both patients and healthy workers. Confirmative factor analyses revealed a CFI >.90 for all scales. The depression scale predicted future work absenteeism (>6 weeks) because of a common mental disorder in healthy workers. The job strain scale and the illness behavior scale predicted long term absenteeism (>3 months) in workers with short-term absenteeism. The illness behavior scale moderately predicted return to work in rehab patients attending an intensive multidisciplinary program. Conclusions The WBI is a valid and reliable tool for occupational health practitioners to screen for risk factors for prolonged or future sickness absence. With this tool they will have reliable indications for further advice and interventions to restore the work ability.

How to quantify exposure to traumatic stress? Reliability and predictive validity of measures for cumulative trauma exposure in a post-conflict population.

PubMed

Wilker, Sarah; Pfeiffer, Anett; Kolassa, Stephan; Koslowski, Daniela; Elbert, Thomas; Kolassa, Iris-Tatjana

2015-01-01

While studies with survivors of single traumatic experiences highlight individual response variation following trauma, research from conflict regions shows that almost everyone develops posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) if trauma exposure reaches extreme levels. Therefore, evaluating the effects of cumulative trauma exposure is of utmost importance in studies investigating risk factors for PTSD. Yet, little research has been devoted to evaluate how this important environmental risk factor can be best quantified. We investigated the retest reliability and predictive validity of different trauma measures in a sample of 227 Ugandan rebel war survivors. Trauma exposure was modeled as the number of traumatic event types experienced or as a score considering traumatic event frequencies. In addition, we investigated whether age at trauma exposure can be reliably measured and improves PTSD risk prediction. All trauma measures showed good reliability. While prediction of lifetime PTSD was most accurate from the number of different traumatic event types experienced, inclusion of event frequencies slightly improved the prediction of current PTSD. As assessing the number of traumatic events experienced is the least stressful and time-consuming assessment and leads to the best prediction of lifetime PTSD, we recommend this measure for research on PTSD etiology.

Reliability Prediction of Ontology-Based Service Compositions Using Petri Net and Time Series Models

PubMed Central

Li, Jia; Xia, Yunni; Luo, Xin

2014-01-01

OWL-S, one of the most important Semantic Web service ontologies proposed to date, provides a core ontological framework and guidelines for describing the properties and capabilities of their web services in an unambiguous, computer interpretable form. Predicting the reliability of composite service processes specified in OWL-S allows service users to decide whether the process meets the quantitative quality requirement. In this study, we consider the runtime quality of services to be fluctuating and introduce a dynamic framework to predict the runtime reliability of services specified in OWL-S, employing the Non-Markovian stochastic Petri net (NMSPN) and the time series model. The framework includes the following steps: obtaining the historical response times series of individual service components; fitting these series with a autoregressive-moving-average-model (ARMA for short) and predicting the future firing rates of service components; mapping the OWL-S process into a NMSPN model; employing the predicted firing rates as the model input of NMSPN and calculating the normal completion probability as the reliability estimate. In the case study, a comparison between the static model and our approach based on experimental data is presented and it is shown that our approach achieves higher prediction accuracy. PMID:24688429

Software reliability studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hoppa, Mary Ann; Wilson, Larry W.

1994-01-01

There are many software reliability models which try to predict future performance of software based on data generated by the debugging process. Our research has shown that by improving the quality of the data one can greatly improve the predictions. We are working on methodologies which control some of the randomness inherent in the standard data generation processes in order to improve the accuracy of predictions. Our contribution is twofold in that we describe an experimental methodology using a data structure called the debugging graph and apply this methodology to assess the robustness of existing models. The debugging graph is used to analyze the effects of various fault recovery orders on the predictive accuracy of several well-known software reliability algorithms. We found that, along a particular debugging path in the graph, the predictive performance of different models can vary greatly. Similarly, just because a model 'fits' a given path's data well does not guarantee that the model would perform well on a different path. Further we observed bug interactions and noted their potential effects on the predictive process. We saw that not only do different faults fail at different rates, but that those rates can be affected by the particular debugging stage at which the rates are evaluated. Based on our experiment, we conjecture that the accuracy of a reliability prediction is affected by the fault recovery order as well as by fault interaction.

Calculating system reliability with SRFYDO

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Morzinski, Jerome; Anderson - Cook, Christine M; Klamann, Richard M

2010-01-01

SRFYDO is a process for estimating reliability of complex systems. Using information from all applicable sources, including full-system (flight) data, component test data, and expert (engineering) judgment, SRFYDO produces reliability estimates and predictions. It is appropriate for series systems with possibly several versions of the system which share some common components. It models reliability as a function of age and up to 2 other lifecycle (usage) covariates. Initial output from its Exploratory Data Analysis mode consists of plots and numerical summaries so that the user can check data entry and model assumptions, and help determine a final form for themore » system model. The System Reliability mode runs a complete reliability calculation using Bayesian methodology. This mode produces results that estimate reliability at the component, sub-system, and system level. The results include estimates of uncertainty, and can predict reliability at some not-too-distant time in the future. This paper presents an overview of the underlying statistical model for the analysis, discusses model assumptions, and demonstrates usage of SRFYDO.« less

General inattentiveness is a long-term reliable trait independently predictive of psychological health: Danish validation studies of the Mindful Attention Awareness Scale.

PubMed

Jensen, Christian Gaden; Niclasen, Janni; Vangkilde, Signe Allerup; Petersen, Anders; Hasselbalch, Steen Gregers

2016-05-01

The Mindful Attention Awareness Scale (MAAS) measures perceived degree of inattentiveness in different contexts and is often used as a reversed indicator of mindfulness. MAAS is hypothesized to reflect a psychological trait or disposition when used outside attentional training contexts, but the long-term test-retest reliability of MAAS scores is virtually untested. It is unknown whether MAAS predicts psychological health after controlling for standardized socioeconomic status classifications. First, MAAS translated to Danish was validated psychometrically within a randomly invited healthy adult community sample (N = 490). Factor analysis confirmed that MAAS scores quantified a unifactorial construct of excellent composite reliability and consistent convergent validity. Structural equation modeling revealed that MAAS scores contributed independently to predicting psychological distress and mental health, after controlling for age, gender, income, socioeconomic occupational class, stressful life events, and social desirability (β = 0.32-.42, ps < .001). Second, MAAS scores showed satisfactory short-term test-retest reliability in 100 retested healthy university students. Finally, MAAS sample mean scores as well as individuals' scores demonstrated satisfactory test-retest reliability across a 6 months interval in the adult community (retested N = 407), intraclass correlations ≥ .74. MAAS scores displayed significantly stronger long-term test-retest reliability than scores measuring psychological distress (z = 2.78, p = .005). Test-retest reliability estimates did not differ within demographic and socioeconomic strata. Scores on the Danish MAAS were psychometrically validated in healthy adults. MAAS's inattentiveness scores reflected a unidimensional construct, long-term reliable disposition, and a factor of independent significance for predicting psychological health. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Electric system restructuring and system reliability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horiuchi, Catherine Miller

In 1996 the California legislature passed AB 1890, explicitly defining economic benefits and detailing specific mechanisms for initiating a partial restructuring the state's electric system. Critics have since sought re-regulation and proponents have asked for patience as the new institutions and markets take shape. Other states' electric system restructuring activities have been tempered by real and perceived problems in the California model. This study examines the reduced regulatory controls and new constraints introduced in California's limited restructuring model using utility and regulatory agency records from the 1990's to investigate effects of new institutions and practices on system reliability for the state's five largest public and private utilities. Logit and negative binomial regressions indicate negative impact from the California model of restructuring on system reliability as measured by customer interruptions. Time series analysis of outage data could not predict the wholesale power market collapse and the subsequent rolling blackouts in early 2001; inclusion of near-outage reliability disturbances---load shedding and energy emergencies---provided a measure of forewarning. Analysis of system disruptions, generation capacity and demand, and the role of purchased power challenge conventional wisdom on the causality of Californian's power problems. The quantitative analysis was supplemented by a targeted survey of electric system restructuring participants. Findings suggest each utility and the organization controlling the state's electric grid provided protection from power outages comparable to pre-restructuring operations through 2000; however, this reliability has come at an inflated cost, resulting in reduced system purchases and decreased marginal protection. The historic margin of operating safety has fully eroded, increasing mandatory load shedding and emergency declarations for voluntary and mandatory conservation. Proposed remedies focused on state-funded contracts and government-managed power authorities may not help, as the findings suggest pricing models, market uncertainty, interjurisdictional conflict and an inability to respond to market perturbations are more significant contributors to reduced regional generation availability than the particular contract mechanisms and funding sources used for power purchases.

Enhancing Flood Prediction Reliability Using Bayesian Model Averaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Z.; Merwade, V.

2017-12-01

Uncertainty analysis is an indispensable part of modeling the hydrology and hydrodynamics of non-idealized environmental systems. Compared to reliance on prediction from one model simulation, using on ensemble of predictions that consider uncertainty from different sources is more reliable. In this study, Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is applied to Black River watershed in Arkansas and Missouri by combining multi-model simulations to get reliable deterministic water stage and probabilistic inundation extent predictions. The simulation ensemble is generated from 81 LISFLOOD-FP subgrid model configurations that include uncertainty from channel shape, channel width, channel roughness and discharge. Model simulation outputs are trained with observed water stage data during one flood event, and BMA prediction ability is validated for another flood event. Results from this study indicate that BMA does not always outperform all members in the ensemble, but it provides relatively robust deterministic flood stage predictions across the basin. Station based BMA (BMA_S) water stage prediction has better performance than global based BMA (BMA_G) prediction which is superior to the ensemble mean prediction. Additionally, high-frequency flood inundation extent (probability greater than 60%) in BMA_G probabilistic map is more accurate than the probabilistic flood inundation extent based on equal weights.

Reliability of windstorm predictions in the ECMWF ensemble prediction system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Becker, Nico; Ulbrich, Uwe

2016-04-01

Windstorms caused by extratropical cyclones are one of the most dangerous natural hazards in the European region. Therefore, reliable predictions of such storm events are needed. Case studies have shown that ensemble prediction systems (EPS) are able to provide useful information about windstorms between two and five days prior to the event. In this work, ensemble predictions with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) EPS are evaluated in a four year period. Within the 50 ensemble members, which are initialized every 12 hours and are run for 10 days, windstorms are identified and tracked in time and space. By using a clustering approach, different predictions of the same storm are identified in the different ensemble members and compared to reanalysis data. The occurrence probability of the predicted storms is estimated by fitting a bivariate normal distribution to the storm track positions. Our results show, for example, that predicted storm clusters with occurrence probabilities of more than 50% have a matching observed storm in 80% of all cases at a lead time of two days. The predicted occurrence probabilities are reliable up to 3 days lead time. At longer lead times the occurrence probabilities are overestimated by the EPS.

Predicting Intent to Get a College Degree.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Staats, Sara; Partlo, Christie

1990-01-01

Examined reliability and validity of Perceived Quality of Academic Life (PQAL) instrument with data collected from 218 midwestern commuter college students. Extended existing research by studying PQAL scores as predictors of intent to remain in college. Findings showed that the PQAL was reliable, valid, and predictive of future intent to obtain a…

Within-person Changes in Individual Symptoms of Depression Predict Subsequent Depressive Episodes in Adolescents: A Prospective Study

PubMed Central

Kouros, Chrystyna D.; Morris, Matthew C.; Garber, Judy

2015-01-01

The current longitudinal study examined which individual symptoms of depression uniquely predicted a subsequent Major Depressive Episode (MDE) in adolescents, and whether these relations differed by sex. Adolescents (N=240) were first interviewed in grade 6 (M=11.86 years old; SD = 0.56; 54% female; 81.5% Caucasian) and then annually through grade 12 regarding their individual symptoms of depression as well as the occurrence of MDEs. Individual symptoms of depression were assessed with the Children’s Depression Rating Scale-Revised (CDRS-R) and depressive episodes were assessed with the Longitudinal Interval Follow-up Evaluation (LIFE). Results showed that within-person changes in sleep problems and low self-esteem/excessive guilt positively predicted an increased likelihood of an MDE for both boys and girls. Significant sex differences also were found. Within-person changes in anhedonia predicted an increased likelihood of a subsequent MDE among boys, whereas irritability predicted a decreased likelihood of a future MDE among boys, and concentration difficulties predicted a decreased likelihood of an MDE in girls. These results identified individual depressive symptoms that predicted subsequent depressive episodes in male and female adolescents, and may be used to guide the early detection, treatment, and prevention of depressive disorders in youth. PMID:26105209

Prediction of android and gynoid body adiposity via a three-dimensional stereovision body imaging system and dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry

PubMed Central

Lee, Jane J.; Freeland-Graves, Jeanne H.; Pepper, M. Reese; Stanforth, Philip R.; Xu, Bugao

2017-01-01

Objective Current methods for measuring regional body fat are expensive and inconvenient compared to the relative cost-effectiveness and ease-of-use of a stereovision body imaging (SBI) system. The primary goal of this research is to develop prediction models for android and gynoid fat by body measurements assessed via SBI and dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA). Subsequently, mathematical equations for prediction of total and regional (trunk, leg) body adiposity were established via parameters measured by SBI and DXA. Methods A total of 121 participants were randomly assigned into primary and cross-validation groups. Body measurements were obtained via traditional anthropometrics, SBI, and DXA. Multiple regression analysis was conducted to develop mathematical equations by demographics and SBI assessed body measurements as independent variables and body adiposity (fat mass and percent fat) as dependent variables. The validity of the prediction models was evaluated by a split sample method and Bland-Altman analysis. Results The R2 of the prediction equations for fat mass and percent body fat were 93.2% and 76.4% for android, and 91.4% and 66.5% for gynoid, respectively. The limits of agreement for the fat mass and percent fat were − 0.06 ± 0.87 kg and − 0.11 ± 1.97 % for android and − 0.04 ± 1.58 kg and − 0.19 ± 4.27 % for gynoid. Prediction values for fat mass and percent fat were 94.6% and 88.9% for total body, 93.9% and 71.0% for trunk, and 92.4% and 64.1% for leg, respectively. Conclusions The three-dimensional (3D) SBI produces reliable parameters that can predict android and gynoid, as well as total and regional (trunk, leg) fat mass. PMID:25915106

Prediction of Android and Gynoid Body Adiposity via a Three-dimensional Stereovision Body Imaging System and Dual-Energy X-ray Absorptiometry.

PubMed

Lee, Jane J; Freeland-Graves, Jeanne H; Pepper, M Reese; Stanforth, Philip R; Xu, Bugao

2015-01-01

Current methods for measuring regional body fat are expensive and inconvenient compared to the relative cost-effectiveness and ease of use of a stereovision body imaging (SBI) system. The primary goal of this research is to develop prediction models for android and gynoid fat by body measurements assessed via SBI and dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA). Subsequently, mathematical equations for prediction of total and regional (trunk, leg) body adiposity were established via parameters measured by SBI and DXA. A total of 121 participants were randomly assigned into primary and cross-validation groups. Body measurements were obtained via traditional anthropometrics, SBI, and DXA. Multiple regression analysis was conducted to develop mathematical equations by demographics and SBI assessed body measurements as independent variables and body adiposity (fat mass and percentage fat) as dependent variables. The validity of the prediction models was evaluated by a split sample method and Bland-Altman analysis. The R(2) of the prediction equations for fat mass and percentage body fat were 93.2% and 76.4% for android and 91.4% and 66.5% for gynoid, respectively. The limits of agreement for the fat mass and percentage fat were -0.06 ± 0.87 kg and -0.11% ± 1.97% for android and -0.04 ± 1.58 kg and -0.19% ± 4.27% for gynoid. Prediction values for fat mass and percentage fat were 94.6% and 88.9% for total body, 93.9% and 71.0% for trunk, and 92.4% and 64.1% for leg, respectively. The three-dimensional (3D) SBI produces reliable parameters that can predict android and gynoid as well as total and regional (trunk, leg) fat mass.

Care 3, Phase 1, volume 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stiffler, J. J.; Bryant, L. A.; Guccione, L.

1979-01-01

A computer program to aid in accessing the reliability of fault tolerant avionics systems was developed. A simple mathematical expression was used to evaluate the reliability of any redundant configuration over any interval during which the failure rates and coverage parameters remained unaffected by configuration changes. Provision was made for convolving such expressions in order to evaluate the reliability of a dual mode system. A coverage model was also developed to determine the various relevant coverage coefficients as a function of the available hardware and software fault detector characteristics, and subsequent isolation and recovery delay statistics.

Estimation of Reliability Coefficients Using the Test Information Function and Its Modifications.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Samejima, Fumiko

1994-01-01

The reliability coefficient is predicted from the test information function (TIF) or two modified TIF formulas and a specific trait distribution. Examples illustrate the variability of the reliability coefficient across different trait distributions, and results are compared with empirical reliability coefficients. (SLD)

Methods to approximate reliabilities in single-step genomic evaluation

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Reliability of predictions from single-step genomic BLUP (ssGBLUP) can be calculated by inversion, but that is not feasible for large data sets. Two methods of approximating reliability were developed based on decomposition of a function of reliability into contributions from records, pedigrees, and...

Development of confidence limits by pivotal functions for estimating software reliability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dotson, Kelly J.

1987-01-01

The utility of pivotal functions is established for assessing software reliability. Based on the Moranda geometric de-eutrophication model of reliability growth, confidence limits for attained reliability and prediction limits for the time to the next failure are derived using a pivotal function approach. Asymptotic approximations to the confidence and prediction limits are considered and are shown to be inadequate in cases where only a few bugs are found in the software. Departures from the assumed exponentially distributed interfailure times in the model are also investigated. The effect of these departures is discussed relative to restricting the use of the Moranda model.

The Behavioral Toxicology of High-Peak, Low Average Power, Pulsed Microwave Irradiation

DTIC Science & Technology

1993-01-25

Psychometrika, 47, 95-99. Raslear, T. G. (1983). A test of the Pfanzagl bisection model in rats. Journal of Experimental Psychology : Animal Behavior Processes, 9...temporal bisection, Y-maze, treadmill running, food motivation (behavioraleconomics), and Persolt swim test . Reliable effects were found with the...subsequent task performance: temporal bisection, Y-maze, treadmill running, food motivation (behavioral economics), and Porsolt swim test . Reliable effects

Solar-cell interconnect design for terrestrial photovoltaic modules

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mon, G. R.; Moore, D. M.; Ross, R. G., Jr.

1984-01-01

Useful solar cell interconnect reliability design and life prediction algorithms are presented, together with experimental data indicating that the classical strain cycle (fatigue) curve for the interconnect material does not account for the statistical scatter that is required in reliability predictions. This shortcoming is presently addressed by fitting a functional form to experimental cumulative interconnect failure rate data, which thereby yields statistical fatigue curves enabling not only the prediction of cumulative interconnect failures during the design life of an array field, but also the quantitative interpretation of data from accelerated thermal cycling tests. Optimal interconnect cost reliability design algorithms are also derived which may allow the minimization of energy cost over the design life of the array field.

Solar-cell interconnect design for terrestrial photovoltaic modules

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mon, G. R.; Moore, D. M.; Ross, R. G., Jr.

1984-11-01

Useful solar cell interconnect reliability design and life prediction algorithms are presented, together with experimental data indicating that the classical strain cycle (fatigue) curve for the interconnect material does not account for the statistical scatter that is required in reliability predictions. This shortcoming is presently addressed by fitting a functional form to experimental cumulative interconnect failure rate data, which thereby yields statistical fatigue curves enabling not only the prediction of cumulative interconnect failures during the design life of an array field, but also the quantitative interpretation of data from accelerated thermal cycling tests. Optimal interconnect cost reliability design algorithms are also derived which may allow the minimization of energy cost over the design life of the array field.

Can we improve the clinical utility of respiratory rate as a monitored vital sign?

PubMed

Chen, Liangyou; Reisner, Andrew T; Gribok, Andrei; McKenna, Thomas M; Reifman, Jaques

2009-06-01

Respiratory rate (RR) is a basic vital sign, measured and monitored throughout a wide spectrum of health care settings, although RR is historically difficult to measure in a reliable fashion. We explore an automated method that computes RR only during intervals of clean, regular, and consistent respiration and investigate its diagnostic use in a retrospective analysis of prehospital trauma casualties. At least 5 s of basic vital signs, including heart rate, RR, and systolic, diastolic, and mean arterial blood pressures, were continuously collected from 326 spontaneously breathing trauma casualties during helicopter transport to a level I trauma center. "Reliable" RR data were identified retrospectively using automated algorithms. The diagnostic performances of reliable versus standard RR were evaluated by calculation of the receiver operating characteristic curves using the maximum-likelihood method and comparison of the summary areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs). Respiratory rate shows significant data-reliability differences. For identifying prehospital casualties who subsequently receive a respiratory intervention (hospital intubation or tube thoracotomy), standard RR yields an AUC of 0.59 (95% confidence interval, 0.48-0.69), whereas reliable RR yields an AUC of 0.67 (0.57-0.77), P < 0.05. For identifying casualties subsequently diagnosed with a major hemorrhagic injury and requiring blood transfusion, standard RR yields an AUC of 0.60 (0.49-0.70), whereas reliable RR yields 0.77 (0.67-0.85), P < 0.001. Reliable RR, as determined by an automated algorithm, is a useful parameter for the diagnosis of respiratory pathology and major hemorrhage in a trauma population. It may be a useful input to a wide variety of clinical scores and automated decision-support algorithms.

Human papillomavirus DNA testing as an adjunct to cytology in cervical screening programs.

PubMed

Lörincz, Attila T; Richart, Ralph M

2003-08-01

Our objective was to review current large studies of human papillomavirus (HPV) DNA testing as an adjunct to the Papanicolaou test for cervical cancer screening programs. We analyzed 10 large screening studies that used the Hybrid Capture 2 test and 3 studies that used the polymerase chain reaction test in a manner that enabled reliable estimates of accuracy for detecting or predicting high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN). Most studies allowed comparison of HPV DNA and Papanicolaou testing and estimates of the performance of Papanicolaou and HPV DNA as combined tests. The studies were selected on the basis of a sufficient number of cases of high-grade CIN and cancer to provide meaningful statistical values. Investigators had to demonstrate the ability to generate reasonably reliable Hybrid Capture 2 or polymerase chain reaction data that were either minimally biased by nature of study design or that permitted analytical techniques for addressing issues of study bias to be applied. Studies had to provide data for the calculation of test sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, odds ratios, relative risks, confidence intervals, and other relevant measures. Final data were abstracted directly from published articles or estimated from descriptive statistics presented in the articles. In some studies, new analyses were performed from raw data supplied by the principal investigators. We concluded that HPV DNA testing was a more sensitive indicator for prevalent high-grade CIN than either conventional or liquid cytology. A combination of HPV DNA and Papanicolaou testing had almost 100% sensitivity and negative predictive value. The specificity of the combined tests was slightly lower than the specificity of the Papanicolaou test alone, but this decrease could potentially be offset by greater protection from neoplastic progression and cost savings available from extended screening intervals. One "double-negative" HPV DNA and Papanicolaou test indicated better prognostic assurance against risk of future CIN 3 than 3 subsequent negative conventional Papanicolaou tests and may safely allow 3-year screening intervals for such low-risk women.

On the use and the performance of software reliability growth models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Keiller, Peter A.; Miller, Douglas R.

1991-01-01

We address the problem of predicting future failures for a piece of software. The number of failures occurring during a finite future time interval is predicted from the number failures observed during an initial period of usage by using software reliability growth models. Two different methods for using the models are considered: straightforward use of individual models, and dynamic selection among models based on goodness-of-fit and quality-of-prediction criteria. Performance is judged by the relative error of the predicted number of failures over future finite time intervals relative to the number of failures eventually observed during the intervals. Six of the former models and eight of the latter are evaluated, based on their performance on twenty data sets. Many open questions remain regarding the use and the performance of software reliability growth models.

Utility of serum pancreatic enzyme levels in diagnosing blunt trauma to the pancreas: a prospective study with systematic review.

PubMed

Mahajan, Abhishek; Kadavigere, Rajagopal; Sripathi, Smiti; Rodrigues, Gabriel Sunil; Rao, Vedula Rajanikanth; Koteshwar, Prakashini

2014-09-01

Reliability of serum pancreatic enzyme levels in predicting pancreatic injuries has been a parameter of interest and the present recommendations on its utility are based primarily on anecdotal observations. The aim of this study was to evaluate the utility of serum pancreatic enzyme assessment in predicting blunt pancreatic injury with imaging and surgical correlation and compare our results with a systematic review of literature till date. A prospective cohort study conducted over 4 years in a tertiary care referral centre with 164 consecutive patients who presented to the emergency department with a history of blunt abdominal trauma and had serum pancreatic enzyme assessment, USG and subsequent diagnostic CECT were analyzed. The CT findings and AAST grade of pancreatic injury, various intra-abdominal injuries and time elapsed since injury and other associated factors were correlated with serum pancreatic enzyme levels. For systematic review of literature MEDLINE database was searched between 1940 and 2012, also the related citations and bibliographies of relevant articles were analyzed and 40 articles were included for review. We compared our results with the systematic critique of literature till date to formulate recommendations. 33(21%) patients had pancreatic injury documented on CT and were graded according to AAST. Statistically significant elevated serum amylase levels were observed in patients with pancreatic and bowel injuries. However, elevated serum lipase was observed specifically in patients with pancreatic injury with or without bowel injury. Combined serum amylase and lipase showed 100% specificity, 85% sensitivity in predicting pancreatic injury. Elevated (n=28, 85%) vs. normal (n=5, 15%) serum amylase and lipase levels showed sole statistically significant association with time elapse since injury to admission, with a cutoff of 3h. Based on our results and the systematic review of the literature till date we conclude, persistently elevated or rising combined estimation of serum amylase and lipase levels are reliable indicators of pancreatic injury and is time dependent, nondiagnostic within 6h or less after trauma. In resource constrained countries where CT is not available everywhere it may support a clinical suspicion of pancreatic injury and can be reliable and cost-effective as a screening tool. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predictive value of impaired evacuation at proctography in diagnosing anismus.

PubMed

Halligan, S; Malouf, A; Bartram, C I; Marshall, M; Hollings, N; Kamm, M A

2001-09-01

We aimed to determine the positive predictive value of impaired evacuation during evacuation proctography for the subsequent diagnosis of anismus. Thirty-one adults with signs of impaired evacuation (defined as the inability to evacuate two thirds of a 120 mL contrast enema within 30 sec) during evacuation proctography underwent subsequent anorectal physiologic testing for anismus. A physiologic diagnosis of anismus was based on a typical clinical history of the condition combined with impaired rectal balloon expulsion or abnormal surface electromyogram. Twenty-eight (90%) of the 31 patients with impaired proctographic evacuation were found to have anismus at subsequent physiologic testing. Among the 28 were all 10 patients who evacuated no contrast medium and all 11 patients with inadequate pelvic floor descent, giving evacuation proctography a positive predictive value of 90% for the diagnosis of anismus. A prominent puborectal impression was seen in only three subjects during proctography, one of whom subsequently showed no physiologic sign of anismus. Impaired evacuation during evacuation proctography is highly predictive for diagnosis of anismus.

Reliability Prediction for Aerospace Electronics

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-04-20

RESEARCH AUTHORITY 3 KIRYAT HAMADA ARIEL ISRAEL EOARD GRANT FA9550-14-1-0216 Report Date: April 2015 Final Report for 15 July 2014 to 14... Ariel , Israel Period of Performance 15 July 2014 – 14 April 2015   Abstract...AFRL-AFOSR-UK-TR-2015-0028 Reliability Prediction for Aerospace Electronics Joseph B. Bernstein ARIEL UNIVERSITY

Predictions of Crystal Structure Based on Radius Ratio: How Reliable Are They?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nathan, Lawrence C.

1985-01-01

Discussion of crystalline solids in undergraduate curricula often includes the use of radius ratio rules as a method for predicting which type of crystal structure is likely to be adopted by a given ionic compound. Examines this topic, establishing more definitive guidelines for the use and reliability of the rules. (JN)

Probabilistic and structural reliability analysis of laminated composite structures based on the IPACS code

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sobel, Larry; Buttitta, Claudio; Suarez, James

1993-01-01

Probabilistic predictions based on the Integrated Probabilistic Assessment of Composite Structures (IPACS) code are presented for the material and structural response of unnotched and notched, 1M6/3501-6 Gr/Ep laminates. Comparisons of predicted and measured modulus and strength distributions are given for unnotched unidirectional, cross-ply, and quasi-isotropic laminates. The predicted modulus distributions were found to correlate well with the test results for all three unnotched laminates. Correlations of strength distributions for the unnotched laminates are judged good for the unidirectional laminate and fair for the cross-ply laminate, whereas the strength correlation for the quasi-isotropic laminate is deficient because IPACS did not yet have a progressive failure capability. The paper also presents probabilistic and structural reliability analysis predictions for the strain concentration factor (SCF) for an open-hole, quasi-isotropic laminate subjected to longitudinal tension. A special procedure was developed to adapt IPACS for the structural reliability analysis. The reliability results show the importance of identifying the most significant random variables upon which the SCF depends, and of having accurate scatter values for these variables.

[Role of context recall in destination memory decline in normal aging].

PubMed

El Haj, Mohamad; Allain, Philippe

2014-12-01

Until recently, little was known about destination memory, or memory for the destination of outputted information. In the present work, this memory was evaluated in 32 older adults and 36 younger adults, who had to associate proverbs to pictures of famous people and decide, on a subsequent recognition task, whether they had previously told that proverb to that face or not. When deciding about the destination, participants had to provide contextual judgment, that is, whether each picture had been previously exposed in color or in black and white. Participants also performed a neuropsychological battery tapping episodic memory and executive functions. Findings showed poor destination recall in older participants. Destination recall in older adults was reliably predicted by with their context recall. Destination memory seems to be particularly affected by aging, a deterioration that can be related to deficits in processing contextual features during encoding.

Heart rate variability reflects self-regulatory strength, effort, and fatigue.

PubMed

Segerstrom, Suzanne C; Nes, Lise Solberg

2007-03-01

Experimental research reliably demonstrates that self-regulatory deficits are a consequence of prior self-regulatory effort. However, in naturalistic settings, although people know that they are sometimes vulnerable to saying, eating, or doing the wrong thing, they cannot accurately gauge their capacity to self-regulate at any given time. Because self-regulation and autonomic regulation colocalize in the brain, an autonomic measure, heart rate variability (HRV), could provide an index of self-regulatory strength and activity. During an experimental manipulation of self-regulation (eating carrots or cookies), HRV was elevated during high self-regulatory effort (eat carrots, resist cookies) compared with low self-regulatory effort (eat cookies, resist carrots). The experimental manipulation and higher HRV at baseline independently predicted persistence at a subsequent anagram task. HRV appears to index self-regulatory strength and effort, making it possible to study these phenomena in the field as well as the lab.

Diphoton production in association with two bottom jets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fäh, Daniel; Greiner, Nicolas

2017-11-01

We study the production of a photon pair in association with two bottom jets at the LHC. This process constitutes an important background to double Higgs production with the subsequent decay of the two Higgs bosons into a pair of photons and b-quarks respectively. We calculate this process at next-to-leading order accuracy in QCD and find that QCD corrections lead to a substantial increase of the production cross section due to new channels opening up at next-to-leading order and their inclusion is therefore inevitable for a reliable prediction. Furthermore, the approximation of massless b-quarks is scrutinized by calculating the process with both massless and massive b-quarks. We find that the massive bottom quark leads to a substantial reduction of the cross section where the biggest effect is, however, due to the use of a four-flavor PDF set and the corresponding smaller values for the strong coupling constant.

Combustion of hydrogen injected into a supersonic airstream (a guide to the HISS computer program)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dyer, D. F.; Maples, G.; Spalding, D. B.

1976-01-01

A computer program based on a finite-difference, implicit numerical integration scheme is described for the prediction of hydrogen injected into a supersonic airstream at an angle ranging from normal to parallel to the airstream main flow direction. Results of calculations for flow and thermal property distributions were compared with 'cold flow data' taken by NASA/Langley and show excellent correlation. Typical results for equilibrium combustion are presented and exhibit qualitatively plausible behavior. Computer time required for a given case is approximately one minute on a CDC 7600. A discussion of the assumption of parabolic flow in the injection region is given which demonstrates that improvement in calculation in this region could be obtained by a partially-parabolic procedure which has been developed. It is concluded that the technique described provides an efficient and reliable means for analyzing hydrogen injection into supersonic airstreams and the subsequent combustion.

Mechanical low-frequency filter via modes separation in 3D periodic structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Alessandro, L.; Belloni, E.; Ardito, R.; Braghin, F.; Corigliano, A.

2017-12-01

This work presents a strategy to design three-dimensional elastic periodic structures endowed with complete bandgaps, the first of which is ultra-wide, where the top limits of the first two bandgaps are overstepped in terms of wave transmission in the finite structure. Thus, subsequent bandgaps are merged, approaching the behaviour of a three-dimensional low-pass mechanical filter. This result relies on a proper organization of the modal characteristics, and it is validated by performing numerical and analytical calculations over the unit cell. A prototype of the analysed layout, made of Nylon by means of additive manufacturing, is experimentally tested to assess the transmission spectrum of the finite structure, obtaining good agreement with numerical predictions. The presented strategy paves the way for the development of a class of periodic structures to be used in robust and reliable wave attenuation over a wide frequency band.

Genome-wide essential gene identification in Streptococcus sanguinis

PubMed Central

Xu, Ping; Ge, Xiuchun; Chen, Lei; Wang, Xiaojing; Dou, Yuetan; Xu, Jerry Z.; Patel, Jenishkumar R.; Stone, Victoria; Trinh, My; Evans, Karra; Kitten, Todd; Bonchev, Danail; Buck, Gregory A.

2011-01-01

A clear perception of gene essentiality in bacterial pathogens is pivotal for identifying drug targets to combat emergence of new pathogens and antibiotic-resistant bacteria, for synthetic biology, and for understanding the origins of life. We have constructed a comprehensive set of deletion mutants and systematically identified a clearly defined set of essential genes for Streptococcus sanguinis. Our results were confirmed by growing S. sanguinis in minimal medium and by double-knockout of paralogous or isozyme genes. Careful examination revealed that these essential genes were associated with only three basic categories of biological functions: maintenance of the cell envelope, energy production, and processing of genetic information. Our finding was subsequently validated in two other pathogenic streptococcal species, Streptococcus pneumoniae and Streptococcus mutans and in two other gram-positive pathogens, Bacillus subtilis and Staphylococcus aureus. Our analysis has thus led to a simplified model that permits reliable prediction of gene essentiality. PMID:22355642

Millimeter wavelength propagation studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hodge, D. B.

1974-01-01

The investigations conducted for the Millimeter Wavelength Propagation Studies during the period December, 1966, to June 1974 are reported. These efforts included the preparation for the ATS-5 Millimeter Wavelength Propagation Experiment and the subsequent data acquisition and data analysis. The emphasis of the OSU participation in this experiment was placed on the determination of reliability improvement resulting from the use of space diversity on a millimeter wavelength earth-space communication link. Related measurements included the determination of the correlation between radiometric temperature and attenuation along the earth-space propagation path. Along with this experimental effort a theoretical model was developed for the prediction of attenuation statistics on single and spatially separated earth space propagation paths. A High Resolution Radar/Radiometer System and Low Resolution Radar System were developed and implemented for the study of intense rain cells in preparation for the ATS-6 Millimeter Wavelength Propagation Experiment.

Resident performance on the in-training and board examinations in obstetrics and gynecology: implications for the ACGME Outcome Project.

PubMed

Withiam-Leitch, Matthew; Olawaiye, Alexander

2008-01-01

The Accreditation Council on Graduate Medical Education (ACGME) Outcomes Project has endorsed the in-training examination (ITE) as an example of a multiple-choice question examination that is a valid measure of a resident's attainment of medical knowledge. An outcome measure for performance on the ITE would be the subsequent performance on the board certification examination. However, there are few reports that attempt to correlate a resident's performance on the ITE to subsequent performance on the board certification examination. The Council on Resident Education in Obstetrics and Gynecology (CREOG) has administered the ITE annually since 1970. This study tested the hypothesis that the CREOG-ITE score is a valid assessment tool to predict performance on the American Board of Obstetrics and Gynecology (ABOG) written examination. CREOG-ITE and ABOG written board examination results were collected for 69 resident graduates between the years 1998 and 2005. Logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic analyses were used to estimate the relationship between a resident's score on the CREOG-ITE and subsequent performance on the ABOG written examination. Fifty-seven resident graduates passed (82.6%) and 12 graduates failed (17.4%) the ABOG written examination. The correlation between the CREOG-ITE overall score and performance on the ABOG examination was weak (correlation coefficient =.38, p =.001). Receiver operating characteristic analysis for the CREOG-ITE overall scores and the probability of passing or failing the ABOG examination revealed moderate accuracy (area under the curve = 0.77, 95% CI = 0.62-0.92) with a CREOG-ITE score of 187.5 yielding the best trade-off between specificity (0.79) and sensitivity (0.75). At the cutoff value of 187.5 there was a weak positive predictive value of 43% (i.e., 43% of residents with a score less than 187.5 will fail the ABOG exam) and a strong negative predictive value of 94% (i.e., 94% of the residents with a score above 187.5 will pass the ABOG exam). Logistic regression analysis also revealed a statistically significant relationship between the CREOG-ITE overall score and performance on the ABOG written examination (p = .003). Similar to other specialties, resident performance on the CREOG-ITE is a weak assessment tool to predict the probability of a resident failing the ABOG written examination. Our study highlights the need, in the spirit of the ACGME Outcome Project, for residency and board specialty organizations to coordinate efforts to develop more reliable and correlative measures of a resident's medical knowledge and ability to pass the boards.

Wearable Lactate Threshold Predicting Device is Valid and Reliable in Runners.

PubMed

Borges, Nattai R; Driller, Matthew W

2016-08-01

Borges, NR and Driller, MW. Wearable lactate threshold predicting device is valid and reliable in runners. J Strength Cond Res 30(8): 2212-2218, 2016-A commercially available device claiming to be the world's first wearable lactate threshold predicting device (WLT), using near-infrared LED technology, has entered the market. The aim of this study was to determine the levels of agreement between the WLT-derived lactate threshold workload and traditional methods of lactate threshold (LT) calculation and the interdevice and intradevice reliability of the WLT. Fourteen (7 male, 7 female; mean ± SD; age: 18-45 years, height: 169 ± 9 cm, mass: 67 ± 13 kg, V[Combining Dot Above]O2max: 53 ± 9 ml·kg·min) subjects ranging from recreationally active to highly trained athletes completed an incremental exercise test to exhaustion on a treadmill. Blood lactate samples were taken at the end of each 3-minute stage during the test to determine lactate threshold using 5 traditional methods from blood lactate analysis which were then compared against the WLT predicted value. In a subset of the population (n = 12), repeat trials were performed to determine both inter-reliability and intrareliability of the WLT device. Intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) found high to very high agreement between the WLT and traditional methods (ICC > 0.80), with TEMs and mean differences ranging between 3.9-10.2% and 1.3-9.4%. Both interdevice and intradevice reliability resulted in highly reproducible and comparable results (CV < 1.2%, TEM <0.2 km·h, ICC > 0.97). This study suggests that the WLT is a practical, reliable, and noninvasive tool for use in predicting LT in runners.

Pocket Handbook on Reliability

DTIC Science & Technology

1975-09-01

exponencial distributions Weibull distribution, -xtimating reliability, confidence intervals, relia- bility growth, 0. P- curves, Bayesian analysis. 20 A S...introduction for those not familiar with reliability and a good refresher for those who are currently working in the area. LEWIS NERI, CHIEF...includes one or both of the following objectives: a) prediction of the current system reliability, b) projection on the system reliability for someI future

Prediction of seasonal climate-induced variations in global food production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iizumi, Toshichika; Sakuma, Hirofumi; Yokozawa, Masayuki; Luo, Jing-Jia; Challinor, Andrew J.; Brown, Molly E.; Sakurai, Gen; Yamagata, Toshio

2013-10-01

Consumers, including the poor in many countries, are increasingly dependent on food imports and are thus exposed to variations in yields, production and export prices in the major food-producing regions of the world. National governments and commercial entities are therefore paying increased attention to the cropping forecasts of important food-exporting countries as well as to their own domestic food production. Given the increased volatility of food markets and the rising incidence of climatic extremes affecting food production, food price spikes may increase in prevalence in future years. Here we present a global assessment of the reliability of crop failure hindcasts for major crops at two lead times derived by linking ensemble seasonal climatic forecasts with statistical crop models. We found that moderate-to-marked yield loss over a substantial percentage (26-33%) of the harvested area of these crops is reliably predictable if climatic forecasts are near perfect. However, only rice and wheat production are reliably predictable at three months before the harvest using within-season hindcasts. The reliabilities of estimates varied substantially by crop--rice and wheat yields were the most predictable, followed by soybean and maize. The reasons for variation in the reliability of the estimates included the differences in crop sensitivity to the climate and the technology used by the crop-producing regions. Our findings reveal that the use of seasonal climatic forecasts to predict crop failures will be useful for monitoring global food production and will encourage the adaptation of food systems toclimatic extremes.

Assessment of the reliability of protein-protein interactions and protein function prediction.

PubMed

Deng, Minghua; Sun, Fengzhu; Chen, Ting

2003-01-01

As more and more high-throughput protein-protein interaction data are collected, the task of estimating the reliability of different data sets becomes increasingly important. In this paper, we present our study of two groups of protein-protein interaction data, the physical interaction data and the protein complex data, and estimate the reliability of these data sets using three different measurements: (1) the distribution of gene expression correlation coefficients, (2) the reliability based on gene expression correlation coefficients, and (3) the accuracy of protein function predictions. We develop a maximum likelihood method to estimate the reliability of protein interaction data sets according to the distribution of correlation coefficients of gene expression profiles of putative interacting protein pairs. The results of the three measurements are consistent with each other. The MIPS protein complex data have the highest mean gene expression correlation coefficients (0.256) and the highest accuracy in predicting protein functions (70% sensitivity and specificity), while Ito's Yeast two-hybrid data have the lowest mean (0.041) and the lowest accuracy (15% sensitivity and specificity). Uetz's data are more reliable than Ito's data in all three measurements, and the TAP protein complex data are more reliable than the HMS-PCI data in all three measurements as well. The complex data sets generally perform better in function predictions than do the physical interaction data sets. Proteins in complexes are shown to be more highly correlated in gene expression. The results confirm that the components of a protein complex can be assigned to functions that the complex carries out within a cell. There are three interaction data sets different from the above two groups: the genetic interaction data, the in-silico data and the syn-express data. Their capability of predicting protein functions generally falls between that of the Y2H data and that of the MIPS protein complex data. The supplementary information is available at the following Web site: http://www-hto.usc.edu/-msms/AssessInteraction/.

External Validation and Evaluation of Reliability and Validity of the Modified Seoul National University Renal Stone Complexity Scoring System to Predict Stone-Free Status After Retrograde Intrarenal Surgery.

PubMed

Park, Juhyun; Kang, Minyong; Jeong, Chang Wook; Oh, Sohee; Lee, Jeong Woo; Lee, Seung Bae; Son, Hwancheol; Jeong, Hyeon; Cho, Sung Yong

2015-08-01

The modified Seoul National University Renal Stone Complexity scoring system (S-ReSC-R) for retrograde intrarenal surgery (RIRS) was developed as a tool to predict stone-free rate (SFR) after RIRS. We externally validated the S-ReSC-R. We retrospectively reviewed 159 patients who underwent RIRS. The S-ReSC-R was assigned from 1 to 12 according to the location and number of sites involved. The stone-free status was defined as no evidence of a stone or with clinically insignificant residual fragment stones less than 2 mm. Interobserver and test-retest reliabilities were evaluated. Statistical performance of the prediction model was assessed by its predictive accuracy, predictive probability, and clinical usefulness. Overall SFR was 73.0%. The SFRs were 86.7%, 70.2%, and 48.6% in low-score (1-2), intermediate-score (3-4), and high-score (5-12) groups, respectively (p<0.001). External validation of S-ReSC-R revealed an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.731 (95% CI 0.650-0.813). The AUC of the three-titered S-ReSC-R was 0.701 (95% CI 0.609-0.794). The calibration plot showed that the predicted probability of SFR had a concordance comparable to that of observed frequency. The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test revealed a p-value of 0.01 for the S-ReSC-R and 0.90 for the three-titered S-ReSC-R. Interobserver and test-retest reliabilities revealed an almost perfect level of agreement. The present study proved the predictive value of S-ReSC-R to predict SFR following RIRS in an independent cohort. Interobserver and test-retest reliabilities confirmed that S-ReSC-R was reliable and valid.

Predictive validity of the structured assessment of violence risk in youth: A 4-year follow-up.

PubMed

Gammelgård, Monica; Koivisto, Anna-Maija; Eronen, Markku; Kaltiala-Heino, Riittakerttu

2015-07-01

Structured violence risk assessment is an essential part of treatment planning for violent young people. The Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY) has been shown to have good reliability and validity in a range of settings but has hardly been studied in adolescent mental health services. This study aimed to evaluate the long-term predictive validity of the SAVRY in adolescent psychiatry settings. In a prospective study, 200 SAVRY assessments of adolescents were acquired from psychiatric, forensic and correctional settings. Re-offending records from the Finnish National Crime Register were collected. Receiver operating curve statistics were applied. High SAVRY total and individual subscale scores and low values on the protective factor subscale were significantly associated with subsequent adverse outcomes, but the predictive value of the total score was weak. At the risk item level, those indicating antisocial lifestyle, absence of social support and pro-social involvement were strong indicators of subsequent criminal convictions, with or without violence. The SAVRY summary risk rating was the best indicator of likelihood of being convicted of a violent crime. After allowing for sex, age, psychiatric diagnosis and treatment setting, for example, conviction for a violent crime was over nine times more likely among those young people given high SAVRY summary risk ratings. The SAVRY is a valid and useful method for assessing both short-term and long-term risks of violent and non-violent crime by young people in psychiatric as well as criminal justice settings, adding to a traditional risk-centred assessment approach by also indicating where future preventive treatment efforts should be targeted. The next steps should be to evaluate its role in everyday clinical practice when using the knowledge generated to inform and monitor management and treatment strategies. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Accuracy of genomic predictions in Gyr (Bos indicus) dairy cattle.

PubMed

Boison, S A; Utsunomiya, A T H; Santos, D J A; Neves, H H R; Carvalheiro, R; Mészáros, G; Utsunomiya, Y T; do Carmo, A S; Verneque, R S; Machado, M A; Panetto, J C C; Garcia, J F; Sölkner, J; da Silva, M V G B

2017-07-01

Genomic selection may accelerate genetic progress in breeding programs of indicine breeds when compared with traditional selection methods. We present results of genomic predictions in Gyr (Bos indicus) dairy cattle of Brazil for milk yield (MY), fat yield (FY), protein yield (PY), and age at first calving using information from bulls and cows. Four different single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) chips were studied. Additionally, the effect of the use of imputed data on genomic prediction accuracy was studied. A total of 474 bulls and 1,688 cows were genotyped with the Illumina BovineHD (HD; San Diego, CA) and BovineSNP50 (50K) chip, respectively. Genotypes of cows were imputed to HD using FImpute v2.2. After quality check of data, 496,606 markers remained. The HD markers present on the GeneSeek SGGP-20Ki (15,727; Lincoln, NE), 50K (22,152), and GeneSeek GGP-75Ki (65,018) were subset and used to assess the effect of lower SNP density on accuracy of prediction. Deregressed breeding values were used as pseudophenotypes for model training. Data were split into reference and validation to mimic a forward prediction scheme. The reference population consisted of animals whose birth year was ≤2004 and consisted of either only bulls (TR1) or a combination of bulls and dams (TR2), whereas the validation set consisted of younger bulls (born after 2004). Genomic BLUP was used to estimate genomic breeding values (GEBV) and reliability of GEBV (R 2 PEV ) was based on the prediction error variance approach. Reliability of GEBV ranged from ∼0.46 (FY and PY) to 0.56 (MY) with TR1 and from 0.51 (PY) to 0.65 (MY) with TR2. When averaged across all traits, R 2 PEV were substantially higher (R 2 PEV of TR1 = 0.50 and TR2 = 0.57) compared with reliabilities of parent averages (0.35) computed from pedigree data and based on diagonals of the coefficient matrix (prediction error variance approach). Reliability was similar for all the 4 marker panels using either TR1 or TR2, except that imputed HD cow data set led to an inflation of reliability. Reliability of GEBV could be increased by enlarging the limited bull reference population with cow information. A reduced panel of ∼15K markers resulted in reliabilities similar to using HD markers. Reliability of GEBV could be increased by enlarging the limited bull reference population with cow information. Copyright © 2017 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Do fertility intentions predict subsequent behavior? Evidence from Peninsular Malaysia.

PubMed

Tan, P C; Tey, N P

1994-01-01

Data from the 1984 Malaysian Population and Family Survey were matched with birth registration records for 1985-87 to determine the accuracy of statements regarding desired family size that were reported in a household survey in predicting subsequent reproductive behavior. The findings of this study were that stated fertility intention provides fairly accurate forecasts of fertility behavior in the subsequent period. In other words, whether a woman has another child is predicted closely by whether she wanted an additional child. Informational, educational, and motivational activities of family planning programs would, therefore, have greater success in reducing family size if fertility intentions were taken into account.

Contribution of domestic production records, Interbull estimated breeding values, and single nucleotide polymorphism genetic markers to the single-step genomic evaluation of milk production.

PubMed

Přibyl, J; Madsen, P; Bauer, J; Přibylová, J; Simečková, M; Vostrý, L; Zavadilová, L

2013-03-01

Estimated breeding values (EBV) for first-lactation milk production of Holstein cattle in the Czech Republic were calculated using a conventional animal model and by single-step prediction of the genomic enhanced breeding value. Two overlapping data sets of milk production data were evaluated: (1) calving years 1991 to 2006, with 861,429 lactations and 1,918,901 animals in the pedigree and (2) calving years 1991 to 2010, with 1,097,319 lactations and 1,906,576 animals in the pedigree. Global Interbull (Uppsala, Sweden) deregressed proofs of 114,189 bulls were used in the analyses. Reliabilities of Interbull values were equivalent to an average of 8.53 effective records, which were used in a weighted analysis. A total of 1,341 bulls were genotyped using the Illumina BovineSNP50 BeadChip V2 (Illumina Inc., San Diego, CA). Among the genotyped bulls were 332 young bulls with no daughters in the first data set but more than 50 daughters (88.41, on average) with performance records in the second data set. For young bulls, correlations of EBV and genomic enhanced breeding value before and after progeny testing, corresponding average expected reliabilities, and effective daughter contributions (EDC) were calculated. The reliability of prediction pedigree EBV of young bulls was 0.41, corresponding to EDC=10.6. Including Interbull deregressed proofs improved the reliability of prediction by EDC=13.4 and including genotyping improved prediction reliability by EDC=6.2. Total average expected reliability of prediction reached 0.67, corresponding to EDC=30.2. The combination of domestic and Interbull sources for both genotyped and nongenotyped animals is valuable for improving the accuracy of genetic prediction in small populations of dairy cattle. Copyright © 2013 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Yale-Brown Obsessive Compulsive Scale: A Reliability Generalization Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

López-Pina, José Antonio; Sánchez-Meca, Julio; López-López, José Antonio; Marín-Martínez, Fulgencio; Núñez-Núñez, Rosa Maria; Rosa-Alcázar, Ana I; Gómez-Conesa, Antonia; Ferrer-Requena, Josefa

2015-10-01

The Yale-Brown Obsessive Compulsive Scale (Y-BOCS) is the most frequently applied test to assess obsessive compulsive symptoms. We conducted a reliability generalization meta-analysis on the Y-BOCS to estimate the average reliability, examine the variability among the reliability estimates, search for moderators, and propose a predictive model that researchers and clinicians can use to estimate the expected reliability of the Y-BOCS. We included studies where the Y-BOCS was applied to a sample of adults and reliability estimate was reported. Out of the 11,490 references located, 144 studies met the selection criteria. For the total scale, the mean reliability was 0.866 for coefficients alpha, 0.848 for test-retest correlations, and 0.922 for intraclass correlations. The moderator analyses led to a predictive model where the standard deviation of the total test and the target population (clinical vs. nonclinical) explained 38.6% of the total variability among coefficients alpha. Finally, clinical implications of the results are discussed. © The Author(s) 2014.

Evaluation of a model of violence risk assessment among forensic psychiatric patients.

PubMed

Douglas, Kevin S; Ogloff, James R P; Hart, Stephen D

2003-10-01

This study tested the interrater reliability and criterion-related validity of structured violence risk judgments made by using one application of the structured professional judgment model of violence risk assessment, the HCR-20 violence risk assessment scheme, which assesses 20 key risk factors in three domains: historical, clinical, and risk management. The HCR-20 was completed for a sample of 100 forensic psychiatric patients who had been found not guilty by reason of a mental disorder and were subsequently released to the community. Violence in the community was determined from multiple file-based sources. Interrater reliability of structured final risk judgments of low, moderate, or high violence risk made on the basis of the structured professional judgment model was acceptable (weighted kappa=.61). Structured final risk judgments were significantly predictive of postrelease community violence, yielding moderate to large effect sizes. Event history analyses showed that final risk judgments made with the structured professional judgment model added incremental validity to the HCR-20 used in an actuarial (numerical) sense. The findings support the structured professional judgment model of risk assessment as well as the HCR-20 specifically and suggest that clinical judgment, if made within a structured context, can contribute in meaningful ways to the assessment of violence risk.

A method for the rapid detection of urinary tract infections.

PubMed

Olsson, Carl; Kapoor, Deepak; Howard, Glenn

2012-04-01

To determine the reliability of a rapid detection method compared with the reference standard streaked agar plate in diagnosing the presence of urinary tract infection (UTI). De-identified clean catch urine specimens from 980 office visit patients were processed during a 30-day period. Classic 1-μL and 10-μL streaked agar plates were used in parallel with the new CultureStat Rapid UTI Detection System (CSRUDS). Urine results were evaluated using the CSRUDS at 30 and 90 minutes after collection. A comparative analysis of the subsequent plate results versus the CSRUDS results was achieved for 973 of these samples. Positive UTI conditions were accurately identified by both CSRUDS and agar streak plate methods. CSRUDS accurately identified UTI negative conditions with 99.3% reliability at 90 minutes. The negative predictive value of CSRUDS was 99.2% at 30 minutes. Current agar plating for first-round UTI screening has substantial documented problems that can negatively affect an accurate and timely UTI diagnosis. A novel rapid detection system, the CSRUDS provides UTI negative/positive same-day results in ≤ 90 minutes from the start of test. Such rapidly available results will enable more accurate and timely clinical decisions to be made in the urology office, particularly regarding infection status before urologic instrumentation. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Self-esteem among nursing assistants: reliability and validity of the Rosenberg Self-Esteem Scale.

PubMed

McMullen, Tara; Resnick, Barbara

2013-01-01

To establish the reliability and validity of the Rosenberg Self-Esteem Scale (RSES) when used with nursing assistants (NAs). Testing the RSES used baseline data from a randomized controlled trial testing the Res-Care Intervention. Female NAs were recruited from nursing homes (n = 508). Validity testing for the positive and negative subscales of the RSES was based on confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) using structural equation modeling and Rasch analysis. Estimates of reliability were based on Rasch analysis and the person separation index. Evidence supports the reliability and validity of the RSES in NAs although we recommend minor revisions to the measure for subsequent use. Establishing reliable and valid measures of self-esteem in NAs will facilitate testing of interventions to strengthen workplace self-esteem, job satisfaction, and retention.

Short-term variability in body weight predicts long-term weight gain1

PubMed Central

Lowe, Michael R; Feig, Emily H; Winter, Samantha R; Stice, Eric

2015-01-01

Background: Body weight in lower animals and humans is highly stable despite a very large flux in energy intake and expenditure over time. Conversely, the existence of higher-than-average variability in weight may indicate a disruption in the mechanisms responsible for homeostatic weight regulation. Objective: In a sample chosen for weight-gain proneness, we evaluated whether weight variability over a 6-mo period predicted subsequent weight change from 6 to 24 mo. Design: A total of 171 nonobese women were recruited to participate in this longitudinal study in which weight was measured 4 times over 24 mo. The initial 3 weights were used to calculate weight variability with the use of a root mean square error approach to assess fluctuations in weight independent of trajectory. Linear regression analysis was used to examine whether weight variability in the initial 6 mo predicted weight change 18 mo later. Results: Greater weight variability significantly predicted amount of weight gained. This result was unchanged after control for baseline body mass index (BMI) and BMI change from baseline to 6 mo and for measures of disinhibition, restrained eating, and dieting. Conclusions: Elevated weight variability in young women may signal the degradation of body weight regulatory systems. In an obesogenic environment this may eventuate in accelerated weight gain, particularly in those with a genetic susceptibility toward overweight. Future research is needed to evaluate the reliability of weight variability as a predictor of future weight gain and the sources of its predictive effect. The trial on which this study is based is registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT00456131. PMID:26354535

Short-term variability in body weight predicts long-term weight gain.

PubMed

Lowe, Michael R; Feig, Emily H; Winter, Samantha R; Stice, Eric

2015-11-01

Body weight in lower animals and humans is highly stable despite a very large flux in energy intake and expenditure over time. Conversely, the existence of higher-than-average variability in weight may indicate a disruption in the mechanisms responsible for homeostatic weight regulation. In a sample chosen for weight-gain proneness, we evaluated whether weight variability over a 6-mo period predicted subsequent weight change from 6 to 24 mo. A total of 171 nonobese women were recruited to participate in this longitudinal study in which weight was measured 4 times over 24 mo. The initial 3 weights were used to calculate weight variability with the use of a root mean square error approach to assess fluctuations in weight independent of trajectory. Linear regression analysis was used to examine whether weight variability in the initial 6 mo predicted weight change 18 mo later. Greater weight variability significantly predicted amount of weight gained. This result was unchanged after control for baseline body mass index (BMI) and BMI change from baseline to 6 mo and for measures of disinhibition, restrained eating, and dieting. Elevated weight variability in young women may signal the degradation of body weight regulatory systems. In an obesogenic environment this may eventuate in accelerated weight gain, particularly in those with a genetic susceptibility toward overweight. Future research is needed to evaluate the reliability of weight variability as a predictor of future weight gain and the sources of its predictive effect. The trial on which this study is based is registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT00456131. © 2015 American Society for Nutrition.

Response surface models for effects of temperature and previous growth sodium chloride on growth kinetics of Salmonella typhimurium on cooked chicken breast.

PubMed

Oscar, T P

1999-12-01

Response surface models were developed and validated for effects of temperature (10 to 40 degrees C) and previous growth NaCl (0.5 to 4.5%) on lag time (lambda) and specific growth rate (mu) of Salmonella Typhimurium on cooked chicken breast. Growth curves for model development (n = 55) and model validation (n = 16) were fit to a two-phase linear growth model to obtain lambda and mu of Salmonella Typhimurium on cooked chicken breast. Response surface models for natural logarithm transformations of lambda and mu as a function of temperature and previous growth NaCl were obtained by regression analysis. Both lambda and mu of Salmonella Typhimurium were affected (P < 0.0001) by temperature but not by previous growth NaCl. Models were validated against data not used in their development. Mean absolute relative error of predictions (model accuracy) was 26.6% for lambda and 15.4% for mu. Median relative error of predictions (model bias) was 0.9% for lambda and 5.2% for mu. Results indicated that the models developed provided reliable predictions of lambda and mu of Salmonella Typhimurium on cooked chicken breast within the matrix of conditions modeled. In addition, results indicated that previous growth NaCl (0.5 to 4.5%) was not a major factor affecting subsequent growth kinetics of Salmonella Typhimurium on cooked chicken breast. Thus, inclusion of previous growth NaCl in predictive models may not significantly improve our ability to predict growth of Salmonella spp. on food subjected to temperature abuse.

A general structure-property relationship to predict the enthalpy of vaporisation at ambient temperatures.

PubMed

Oberg, T

2007-01-01

The vapour pressure is the most important property of an anthropogenic organic compound in determining its partitioning between the atmosphere and the other environmental media. The enthalpy of vaporisation quantifies the temperature dependence of the vapour pressure and its value around 298 K is needed for environmental modelling. The enthalpy of vaporisation can be determined by different experimental methods, but estimation methods are needed to extend the current database and several approaches are available from the literature. However, these methods have limitations, such as a need for other experimental results as input data, a limited applicability domain, a lack of domain definition, and a lack of predictive validation. Here we have attempted to develop a quantitative structure-property relationship (QSPR) that has general applicability and is thoroughly validated. Enthalpies of vaporisation at 298 K were collected from the literature for 1835 pure compounds. The three-dimensional (3D) structures were optimised and each compound was described by a set of computationally derived descriptors. The compounds were randomly assigned into a calibration set and a prediction set. Partial least squares regression (PLSR) was used to estimate a low-dimensional QSPR model with 12 latent variables. The predictive performance of this model, within the domain of application, was estimated at n=560, q2Ext=0.968 and s=0.028 (log transformed values). The QSPR model was subsequently applied to a database of 100,000+ structures, after a similar 3D optimisation and descriptor generation. Reliable predictions can be reported for compounds within the previously defined applicability domain.

Separating predictable and unpredictable work to manage interruptions and promote safe and effective work flow.

PubMed

Kowinsky, Amy M; Shovel, Judith; McLaughlin, Maribeth; Vertacnik, Lisa; Greenhouse, Pamela K; Martin, Susan Christie; Minnier, Tamra E

2012-01-01

Predictable and unpredictable patient care tasks compete for caregiver time and attention, making it difficult for patient care staff to reliably and consistently meet patient needs. We have piloted a redesigned care model that separates the work of patient care technicians based on task predictability and creates role specificity. This care model shows promise in improving the ability of staff to reliably complete tasks in a more consistent and timely manner.

BeReTa: a systematic method for identifying target transcriptional regulators to enhance microbial production of chemicals.

PubMed

Kim, Minsuk; Sun, Gwanggyu; Lee, Dong-Yup; Kim, Byung-Gee

2017-01-01

Modulation of regulatory circuits governing the metabolic processes is a crucial step for developing microbial cell factories. Despite the prevalence of in silico strain design algorithms, most of them are not capable of predicting required modifications in regulatory networks. Although a few algorithms may predict relevant targets for transcriptional regulator (TR) manipulations, they have limited reliability and applicability due to their high dependency on the availability of integrated metabolic/regulatory models. We present BeReTa (Beneficial Regulator Targeting), a new algorithm for prioritization of TR manipulation targets, which makes use of unintegrated network models. BeReTa identifies TR manipulation targets by evaluating regulatory strengths of interactions and beneficial effects of reactions, and subsequently assigning beneficial scores for the TRs. We demonstrate that BeReTa can predict both known and novel TR manipulation targets for enhanced production of various chemicals in Escherichia coli Furthermore, through a case study of antibiotics production in Streptomyces coelicolor, we successfully demonstrate its wide applicability to even less-studied organisms. To the best of our knowledge, BeReTa is the first strain design algorithm exclusively designed for predicting TR manipulation targets. MATLAB code is available at https://github.com/kms1041/BeReTa (github). byungkim@snu.ac.krSupplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Transactional Relations Between Marital Functioning and Depressive Symptoms

PubMed Central

Kouros, Chrystyna D.; Cummings, E. Mark

2012-01-01

The present study investigated dynamic, longitudinal associations between depressive symptoms and marital processes. Two hundred ninety-six couples reported on marital satisfaction, marital conflict, and depressive symptoms yearly for three years. Observational measures of marital conflict were also collected. Results suggested that different domains of marital functioning related to husbands’ versus wives’ symptoms. For husbands, transactional relations between marital satisfaction and depressive symptoms were identified: high levels of depressive symptoms predicted subsequent decreases in marital satisfaction, and decreased marital satisfaction predicted subsequent elevations in symptoms over time. For wives, high levels of marital conflict predicted subsequent elevations in symptoms over time. Cross-partner results indicated that husbands’ depressive symptoms were also related to subsequent declines in wives’ marital satisfaction. Results are discussed with regard to theoretical perspectives on the marital functioning-depression link and directions for future research are outlined. PMID:21219284

Assessing the impact of land use change on hydrology by ensemble modeling (LUCHEM) III: Scenario analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Huisman, J.A.; Breuer, L.; Bormann, H.; Bronstert, A.; Croke, B.F.W.; Frede, H.-G.; Graff, T.; Hubrechts, L.; Jakeman, A.J.; Kite, G.; Lanini, J.; Leavesley, G.; Lettenmaier, D.P.; Lindstrom, G.; Seibert, J.; Sivapalan, M.; Viney, N.R.; Willems, P.

2009-01-01

An ensemble of 10 hydrological models was applied to the same set of land use change scenarios. There was general agreement about the direction of changes in the mean annual discharge and 90% discharge percentile predicted by the ensemble members, although a considerable range in the magnitude of predictions for the scenarios and catchments under consideration was obvious. Differences in the magnitude of the increase were attributed to the different mean annual actual evapotranspiration rates for each land use type. The ensemble of model runs was further analyzed with deterministic and probabilistic ensemble methods. The deterministic ensemble method based on a trimmed mean resulted in a single somewhat more reliable scenario prediction. The probabilistic reliability ensemble averaging (REA) method allowed a quantification of the model structure uncertainty in the scenario predictions. It was concluded that the use of a model ensemble has greatly increased our confidence in the reliability of the model predictions. ?? 2008 Elsevier Ltd.

Puppy Temperament Assessments Predict Breed and American Kennel Club Group but Not Adult Temperament.

PubMed

Robinson, Lauren M; Skiver Thompson, Rebekah; Ha, James C

2016-01-01

Puppy assessments for companion dogs have shown mixed long-term reliability. Temperament is cited among the reasons for surrendering dogs to shelters. A puppy temperament test that reliably predicts adult behavior is one potential way to lower the number of dogs given to shelters. This study used a longitudinal design to assess temperament in puppies from 8 different breeds at 7 weeks old (n = 52) and 6 years old (n = 34) using modified temperament tests, physiological measures, and a follow-up questionnaire. For 7-week-old puppies, results revealed (a) puppy breed was predictable using 3 variables, (b) 4 American Kennel Club breed groups had some validity based on temperament, (c) temperament was variable within litters of puppies, and (d) certain measures of temperament were related to physiological measures (heart rate). Finally, puppy temperament assessments were reliable in predicting the scores of 2 of the 8 adult dog temperament measures. However, overall, the puppy temperament scores were unreliable in predicting adult temperament.

An improved grey model for the prediction of real-time GPS satellite clock bias

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Z. Y.; Chen, Y. Q.; Lu, X. S.

2008-07-01

In real-time GPS precise point positioning (PPP), real-time and reliable satellite clock bias (SCB) prediction is a key to implement real-time GPS PPP. It is difficult to hold the nuisance and inenarrable performance of space-borne GPS satellite atomic clock because of its high-frequency, sensitivity and impressionable, it accords with the property of grey model (GM) theory, i. e. we can look on the variable process of SCB as grey system. Firstly, based on limits of quadratic polynomial (QP) and traditional GM to predict SCB, a modified GM (1,1) is put forward to predict GPS SCB in this paper; and then, taking GPS SCB data for example, we analyzed clock bias prediction with different sample interval, the relationship between GM exponent and prediction accuracy, precision comparison of GM to QP, and concluded the general rule of different type SCB and GM exponent; finally, to test the reliability and validation of the modified GM what we put forward, taking IGS clock bias ephemeris product as reference, we analyzed the prediction precision with the modified GM, It is showed that the modified GM is reliable and validation to predict GPS SCB and can offer high precise SCB prediction for real-time GPS PPP.

Bidirectional-Compounding Effects of Rumination and Negative Emotion in Predicting Impulsive Behavior: Implications for Emotional Cascades.

PubMed

Selby, Edward A; Kranzler, Amy; Panza, Emily; Fehling, Kara B

2016-04-01

Influenced by chaos theory, the emotional cascade model proposes that rumination and negative emotion may promote each other in a self-amplifying cycle that increases over time. Accordingly, exponential-compounding effects may better describe the relationship between rumination and negative emotion when they occur in impulsive persons, and predict impulsive behavior. Forty-seven community and undergraduate participants who reported frequent engagement in impulsive behaviors monitored their ruminative thoughts and negative emotion multiple times daily for two weeks using digital recording devices. Hypotheses were tested using cross-lagged mixed model analyses. Findings indicated that rumination predicted subsequent elevations in rumination that lasted over extended periods of time. Rumination and negative emotion predicted increased levels of each other at subsequent assessments, and exponential functions for these associations were supported. Results also supported a synergistic effect between rumination and negative emotion, predicting larger elevations in subsequent rumination and negative emotion than when one variable alone was elevated. Finally, there were synergistic effects of rumination and negative emotion in predicting number of impulsive behaviors subsequently reported. These findings are consistent with the emotional cascade model in suggesting that momentary rumination and negative emotion progressively propagate and magnify each other over time in impulsive people, promoting impulsive behavior. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Confronting uncertainty in flood damage predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schröter, Kai; Kreibich, Heidi; Vogel, Kristin; Merz, Bruno

2015-04-01

Reliable flood damage models are a prerequisite for the practical usefulness of the model results. Oftentimes, traditional uni-variate damage models as for instance depth-damage curves fail to reproduce the variability of observed flood damage. Innovative multi-variate probabilistic modelling approaches are promising to capture and quantify the uncertainty involved and thus to improve the basis for decision making. In this study we compare the predictive capability of two probabilistic modelling approaches, namely Bagging Decision Trees and Bayesian Networks. For model evaluation we use empirical damage data which are available from computer aided telephone interviews that were respectively compiled after the floods in 2002, 2005 and 2006, in the Elbe and Danube catchments in Germany. We carry out a split sample test by sub-setting the damage records. One sub-set is used to derive the models and the remaining records are used to evaluate the predictive performance of the model. Further we stratify the sample according to catchments which allows studying model performance in a spatial transfer context. Flood damage estimation is carried out on the scale of the individual buildings in terms of relative damage. The predictive performance of the models is assessed in terms of systematic deviations (mean bias), precision (mean absolute error) as well as in terms of reliability which is represented by the proportion of the number of observations that fall within the 95-quantile and 5-quantile predictive interval. The reliability of the probabilistic predictions within validation runs decreases only slightly and achieves a very good coverage of observations within the predictive interval. Probabilistic models provide quantitative information about prediction uncertainty which is crucial to assess the reliability of model predictions and improves the usefulness of model results.

Sexual imprinting misguides species recognition in a facultative interspecific brood parasite

PubMed Central

Sorenson, Michael D.; Hauber, Mark E.; Derrickson, Scott R.

2010-01-01

Sexual reproduction relies on the recognition of conspecifics for breeding. Most experiments in birds have implicated a critical role for early social learning in directing subsequent courtship behaviours and mating decisions. This classical view of avian sexual imprinting is challenged, however, by studies of megapodes and obligate brood parasites, species in which reliable recognition is achieved despite the lack of early experience with conspecifics. By rearing males with either conspecific or heterospecific brood mates, we experimentally tested the effect of early social experience on the association preferences and courtship behaviours of two sympatrically breeding ducks. We predicted that redheads (Aythya americana), which are facultative interspecific brood parasites, would show a diminished effect of early social environment on subsequent courtship preferences when compared with their host and congener, the canvasback (Aythya valisineria). Contrary to expectations, cross-fostered males of both species courted heterospecific females and preferred them in spatial association tests, whereas control males courted and associated with conspecific females. These results imply that ontogenetic constraints on species recognition may be a general impediment to the initial evolution of interspecific brood parasitism in birds. Under more natural conditions, a variety of mechanisms may mitigate or counteract the effects of early imprinting for redheads reared in canvasback broods. PMID:20484239

Sexual imprinting misguides species recognition in a facultative interspecific brood parasite.

PubMed

Sorenson, Michael D; Hauber, Mark E; Derrickson, Scott R

2010-10-22

Sexual reproduction relies on the recognition of conspecifics for breeding. Most experiments in birds have implicated a critical role for early social learning in directing subsequent courtship behaviours and mating decisions. This classical view of avian sexual imprinting is challenged, however, by studies of megapodes and obligate brood parasites, species in which reliable recognition is achieved despite the lack of early experience with conspecifics. By rearing males with either conspecific or heterospecific brood mates, we experimentally tested the effect of early social experience on the association preferences and courtship behaviours of two sympatrically breeding ducks. We predicted that redheads (Aythya americana), which are facultative interspecific brood parasites, would show a diminished effect of early social environment on subsequent courtship preferences when compared with their host and congener, the canvasback (Aythya valisineria). Contrary to expectations, cross-fostered males of both species courted heterospecific females and preferred them in spatial association tests, whereas control males courted and associated with conspecific females. These results imply that ontogenetic constraints on species recognition may be a general impediment to the initial evolution of interspecific brood parasitism in birds. Under more natural conditions, a variety of mechanisms may mitigate or counteract the effects of early imprinting for redheads reared in canvasback broods.

Warranty optimisation based on the prediction of costs to the manufacturer using neural network model and Monte Carlo simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stamenkovic, Dragan D.; Popovic, Vladimir M.

2015-02-01

Warranty is a powerful marketing tool, but it always involves additional costs to the manufacturer. In order to reduce these costs and make use of warranty's marketing potential, the manufacturer needs to master the techniques for warranty cost prediction according to the reliability characteristics of the product. In this paper a combination free replacement and pro rata warranty policy is analysed as warranty model for one type of light bulbs. Since operating conditions have a great impact on product reliability, they need to be considered in such analysis. A neural network model is used to predict light bulb reliability characteristics based on the data from the tests of light bulbs in various operating conditions. Compared with a linear regression model used in the literature for similar tasks, the neural network model proved to be a more accurate method for such prediction. Reliability parameters obtained in this way are later used in Monte Carlo simulation for the prediction of times to failure needed for warranty cost calculation. The results of the analysis make possible for the manufacturer to choose the optimal warranty policy based on expected product operating conditions. In such a way, the manufacturer can lower the costs and increase the profit.

Earthquake chemical precursors in groundwater: a review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paudel, Shukra Raj; Banjara, Sushant Prasad; Wagle, Amrita; Freund, Friedemann T.

2018-03-01

We review changes in groundwater chemistry as precursory signs for earthquakes. In particular, we discuss pH, total dissolved solids (TDS), electrical conductivity, and dissolved gases in relation to their significance for earthquake prediction or forecasting. These parameters are widely believed to vary in response to seismic and pre-seismic activity. However, the same parameters also vary in response to non-seismic processes. The inability to reliably distinguish between changes caused by seismic or pre-seismic activities from changes caused by non-seismic activities has impeded progress in earthquake science. Short-term earthquake prediction is unlikely to be achieved, however, by pH, TDS, electrical conductivity, and dissolved gas measurements alone. On the other hand, the production of free hydroxyl radicals (•OH), subsequent reactions such as formation of H2O2 and oxidation of As(III) to As(V) in groundwater, have distinctive precursory characteristics. This study deviates from the prevailing mechanical mantra. It addresses earthquake-related non-seismic mechanisms, but focused on the stress-induced electrification of rocks, the generation of positive hole charge carriers and their long-distance propagation through the rock column, plus on electrochemical processes at the rock-water interface.

Predicting the Individual Risk of Acute Severe Colitis at Diagnosis

PubMed Central

Cesarini, Monica; Collins, Gary S.; Rönnblom, Anders; Santos, Antonieta; Wang, Lai Mun; Sjöberg, Daniel; Parkes, Miles; Keshav, Satish

2017-01-01

Abstract Background and Aims: Acute severe colitis [ASC] is associated with major morbidity. We aimed to develop and externally validate an index that predicted ASC within 3 years of diagnosis. Methods: The development cohort included patients aged 16–89 years, diagnosed with ulcerative colitis [UC] in Oxford and followed for 3 years. Primary outcome was hospitalization for ASC, excluding patients admitted within 1 month of diagnosis. Multivariable logistic regression examined the adjusted association of seven risk factors with ASC. Backwards elimination produced a parsimonious model that was simplified to create an easy-to-use index. External validation occurred in separate cohorts from Cambridge, UK, and Uppsala, Sweden. Results: The development cohort [Oxford] included 34/111 patients who developed ASC within a median 14 months [range 1–29]. The final model applied the sum of 1 point each for extensive disease, C-reactive protein [CRP] > 10mg/l, or haemoglobin < 12g/dl F or < 14g/dl M at diagnosis, to give a score from 0/3 to 3/3. This predicted a 70% risk of developing ASC within 3 years [score 3/3]. Validation cohorts included different proportions with ASC [Cambridge = 25/96; Uppsala = 18/298]. Of those scoring 3/3 at diagnosis, 18/18 [Cambridge] and 12/13 [Uppsala] subsequently developed ASC. Discriminant ability [c-index, where 1.0 = perfect discrimination] was 0.81 [Oxford], 0.95 [Cambridge], 0.97 [Uppsala]. Internal validation using bootstrapping showed good calibration, with similar predicted risk across all cohorts. A nomogram predicted individual risk. Conclusions: An index applied at diagnosis reliably predicts the risk of ASC within 3 years in different populations. Patients with a score 3/3 at diagnosis may merit early immunomodulator therapy. PMID:27647858

CASPer, an online pre-interview screen for personal/professional characteristics: prediction of national licensure scores.

PubMed

Dore, Kelly L; Reiter, Harold I; Kreuger, Sharyn; Norman, Geoffrey R

2017-05-01

Typically, only a minority of applicants to health professional training are invited to interview. However, pre-interview measures of cognitive skills predict for national licensure scores (Gauer et al. in Med Educ Online 21 2016) and subsequently licensure scores predict for performance in practice (Tamblyn et al. in JAMA 288(23): 3019-3026, 2002; Tamblyn et al. in JAMA 298(9):993-1001, 2007). Assessment of personal and professional characteristics, with the same psychometric rigour of measures of cognitive abilities, are needed upstream in the selection to health profession training programs. To fill that need, Computer-based Assessment for Sampling Personal characteristics (CASPer)-an on-line, video-based screening test-was created. In this paper, we examine the correlation between CASPer and Canadian national licensure examination outcomes in 109 doctors who took CASPer at the time of selection to medical school. Specifically, CASPer scores were correlated against performance on cognitive and 'non-cognitive' subsections of both the Medical Council of Canada Qualifying Examination (MCCQE) Parts I (end of medical school) and Part II (18 months into specialty training). Unlike most national licensure exams, MCCQE has specific subcomponents examining personal/professional qualities, providing a unique opportunity for comparison. The results demonstrated moderate predictive validity of CASPer to national licensure outcomes of personal/professional characteristics three to six years after admission to medical school. These types of disattenuated correlations (r = 0.3-0.5) are not otherwise predicted by traditional screening measures. These data support the ability of a computer-based strategy to screen applicants in a feasible, reliable test, which has now demonstrated predictive validity, lending evidence of its validation for medical school applicant selection.

Predicting Default from Smoking Cessation Treatment Following Enrolment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Challenger, Alison; Coleman, Tim; Lewis, Sarah

2007-01-01

Objective: To determine which factors predict default from subsequent treatment sessions after initial enrolment and attendance at a large, English smoking cessation service. Design: Cross-sectional survey using data obtained at smokers' initial enrolment attendance to compare the characteristics of those who subsequently default with those who do…

Reliability reporting across studies using the Buss Durkee Hostility Inventory.

PubMed

Vassar, Matt; Hale, William

2009-01-01

Empirical research on anger and hostility has pervaded the academic literature for more than 50 years. Accurate measurement of anger/hostility and subsequent interpretation of results requires that the instruments yield strong psychometric properties. For consistent measurement, reliability estimates must be calculated with each administration, because changes in sample characteristics may alter the scale's ability to generate reliable scores. Therefore, the present study was designed to address reliability reporting practices for a widely used anger assessment, the Buss Durkee Hostility Inventory (BDHI). Of the 250 published articles reviewed, 11.2% calculated and presented reliability estimates for the data at hand, 6.8% cited estimates from a previous study, and 77.1% made no mention of score reliability. Mean alpha estimates of scores for BDHI subscales generally fell below acceptable standards. Additionally, no detectable pattern was found between reporting practices and publication year or journal prestige. Areas for future research are also discussed.

Validated Questionnaire of Maternal Attitude and Knowledge for Predicting Caries Risk in Children: Epidemiological Study in North Jakarta, Indonesia.

PubMed

Laksmiastuti, Sri Ratna; Budiardjo, Sarworini Bagio; Sutadi, Heriandi

2017-06-01

Predicting caries risk in children can be done by identifying caries risk factors. It is an important measure which contributes to best understanding of the cariogenic profile of the patient. Identification could be done by clinical examination and answering the questionnaire. We arrange the study to verify the questionnaire validation for predicting caries risk in children. The study was conducted on 62 pairs of mothers and their children, aged between 3 and 5 years. The questionnaire consists of 10 questions concerning mothers' attitude and knowledge about oral health. The reliability and validity test is based on Cronbach's alpha and correlation coefficient value. All question are reliable (Cronbach's alpha = 0.873) and valid (Corrected item-total item correlation >0.4). Five questionnaires of mother's attitude about oral health and five questionnaires of mother's knowledge about oral health are reliable and valid for predicting caries risk in children.

A Step Made Toward Designing Microelectromechanical System (MEMS) Structures With High Reliability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nemeth, Noel N.

2003-01-01

The mechanical design of microelectromechanical systems-particularly for micropower generation applications-requires the ability to predict the strength capacity of load-carrying components over the service life of the device. These microdevices, which typically are made of brittle materials such as polysilicon, show wide scatter (stochastic behavior) in strength as well as a different average strength for different sized structures (size effect). These behaviors necessitate either costly and time-consuming trial-and-error designs or, more efficiently, the development of a probabilistic design methodology for MEMS. Over the years, the NASA Glenn Research Center s Life Prediction Branch has developed the CARES/Life probabilistic design methodology to predict the reliability of advanced ceramic components. In this study, done in collaboration with Johns Hopkins University, the ability of the CARES/Life code to predict the reliability of polysilicon microsized structures with stress concentrations is successfully demonstrated.

[A reliability growth assessment method and its application in the development of equipment in space cabin].

PubMed

Chen, J D; Sun, H L

1999-04-01

Objective. To assess and predict reliability of an equipment dynamically by making full use of various test informations in the development of products. Method. A new reliability growth assessment method based on army material system analysis activity (AMSAA) model was developed. The method is composed of the AMSAA model and test data conversion technology. Result. The assessment and prediction results of a space-borne equipment conform to its expectations. Conclusion. It is suggested that this method should be further researched and popularized.

Predicting bioconcentration of chemicals into vegetation from soil or air using the molecular connectivity index

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dowdy, D.L.; McKone, T.E.; Hsieh, D.P.H.

1995-12-31

Bioconcentration factors (BCFs) are the ratio of chemical concentration found in an exposed organism (in this case a plant) to the concentration in an air or soil exposure medium. The authors examine here the use of molecular connectivity indices (MCIs) as quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSARS) for predicting BCFs for organic chemicals between plants and air or soil. The authors compare the reliability of the octanol-air partition coefficient (K{sub oa}) to the MC based prediction method for predicting plant/air partition coefficients. The authors also compare the reliability of the octanol/water partition coefficient (K{sub ow}) to the MC based prediction method formore » predicting plant/soil partition coefficients. The results here indicate that, relative to the use of K{sub ow} or K{sub oa} as predictors of BCFs the MC can substantially increase the reliability with which BCFs can be estimated. The authors find that the MC provides a relatively precise and accurate method for predicting the potential biotransfer of a chemical from environmental media into plants. In addition, the MC is much faster and more cost effective than direct measurements.« less

German Beck Scale for Suicide Ideation (BSS): psychometric properties from a representative population survey.

PubMed

Kliem, Sören; Lohmann, Anna; Mößle, Thomas; Brähler, Elmar

2017-12-04

Suicidal ideation has been identified as one of the major predictors of attempted or actual suicide. Routinely screening individuals for endorsing suicidal thoughts could save lives and protect many from severe psychological consequences following the suicide of loved ones. The aim of this study was to validate the German version of the Beck Scale for Suicide Ideation (BSS) in a sample representative for the Federal Republic of Germany. All 2450 participants completed the first part of the Scale, the BSS-Screen. A risk group of n = 112 individuals (4.6%) with active or passive suicidal ideation was identified and subsequently completed the entire BSS. Satisfactory internal reliability (α = .97 for the BSS-Screen; α = .94 for the entire BSS) and excellent model fit indices for the one-dimensional factorial structure of the BSS-Screen (CFI = .998; TLI = .995; RMSEA = .045 [95%-CI: .030-.061]) were confirmed. Measurement invariance analyses supported strict invariance across gender, age, and depression status. We found correlations with related self-report measures in expected directions comparable to previous studies, indicating satisfactory construct validity. Our study involved cross sectional data, hence neither predictive validity nor retest-reliability were examined. As only the risk group of n = 112 individuals completed the entire measure, confirmatory factor analyses could not be conducted for the full BSS. The German translation of the BSS is a reliable and valid instrument for assessing suicidal ideation in the general population. Using it as a screening device in general and specialized medical care could substantially advance suicide prevention.

Getting on the same page: The effect of normative feedback interventions on structured interview ratings.

PubMed

Hartwell, Christopher J; Campion, Michael A

2016-06-01

This study explores normative feedback as a way to reduce rating errors and increase the reliability and validity of structured interview ratings. Based in control theory and social comparison theory, we propose a model of normative feedback interventions (NFIs) in the context of structured interviews and test our model using data from over 20,000 interviews conducted by more than 100 interviewers over a period of more than 4 years. Results indicate that lenient and severe interviewers reduced discrepancies between their ratings and the overall normative mean rating after receipt of normative feedback, though changes were greater for lenient interviewers. When various waves of feedback were presented in later NFIs, the combined normative mean rating over multiple time periods was more predictive of subsequent rating changes than the normative mean rating from the most recent time period. Mean within-interviewer rating variance, along with interrater agreement and interrater reliability, increased after the initial NFI, but results from later NFIs were more complex and revealed that feedback interventions may lose effectiveness over time. A second study using simulated data indicated that leniency and severity errors did not impact rating validity, but did affect which applicants were hired. We conclude that giving normative feedback to interviewers will aid in minimizing interviewer rating differences and enhance the reliability of structured interview ratings. We suggest that interviewer feedback might be considered as a potential new component of interview structure, though future research is needed before a definitive conclusion can be drawn. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Learned helplessness in the rat: improvements in validity and reliability.

PubMed

Vollmayr, B; Henn, F A

2001-08-01

Major depression has a high prevalence and a high mortality. Despite many years of research little is known about the pathophysiologic events leading to depression nor about the causative molecular mechanisms of antidepressant treatment leading to remission and prevention of relapse. Animal models of depression are urgently needed to investigate new hypotheses. The learned helplessness paradigm initially described by Overmier and Seligman [J. Comp. Physiol. Psychol. 63 (1967) 28] is the most widely studied animal model of depression. Animals are exposed to inescapable shock and subsequently tested for a deficit in acquiring an avoidance task. Despite its excellent validity concerning the construct of etiology, symptomatology and prediction of treatment response [Clin. Neurosci. 1 (1993) 152; Trends Pharmacol. Sci. 12 (1991) 131] there has been little use of the model for the investigation of recent theories on the pathogenesis of depression. This may be due to reported difficulties in reliability of the paradigm [Animal Learn. Behav. 4 (1976) 401; Pharmacol. Biochem. Behav. 36 (1990) 739]. The aim of the current study was therefore to improve parameters for inescapable shock and learned helplessness testing to minimize artifacts and random error and yield a reliable fraction of helpless animals after shock exposure. The protocol uses mild current which induces helplessness only in some of the animals thereby modeling the hypothesis of variable predisposition for depression in different subjects [Psychopharmacol. Bull. 21 (1985) 443; Neurosci. Res. 38 (200) 193]. This allows us to use animals which are not helpless after inescapable shock as a stressed control, but sensitivity, specificity and variability of test results have to be reassessed.

High-level theoretical characterization of the vinoxy radical (•CH2CHO) + O2 reaction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weidman, Jared D.; Allen, Ryan T.; Moore, Kevin B.; Schaefer, Henry F.

2018-05-01

Numerous processes in atmospheric and combustion chemistry produce the vinoxy radical (•CH2CHO). To understand the fate of this radical and to provide reliable energies needed for kinetic modeling of such processes, we have examined its reaction with O2 using highly reliable theoretical methods. Utilizing the focal point approach, the energetics of this reaction and subsequent reactions were obtained using coupled-cluster theory with single, double, and perturbative triple excitations [CCSD(T)] extrapolated to the complete basis set limit. These extrapolated energies were appended with several corrections including a treatment of full triples and connected quadruple excitations, i.e., CCSDT(Q). In addition, this study models the initial vinoxy radical + O2 reaction for the first time with multireference methods. We predict a barrier for this reaction of approximately 0.4 kcal mol-1. This result agrees with experimental findings but is in disagreement with previous theoretical studies. The vinoxy radical + O2 reaction produces a 2-oxoethylperoxy radical which can undergo a number of unimolecular reactions. Abstraction of a β-hydrogen (a 1,4-hydrogen shift) and dissociation back to reactants are predicted to be competitive to each other due to their similar barriers of 21.2 and 22.3 kcal mol-1, respectively. The minimum-energy β-hydrogen abstraction pathway produces a hydroperoxy radical (QOOH) that eventually decomposes to formaldehyde, CO, and •OH. Two other unimolecular reactions of the peroxy radical are α-hydrogen abstraction (38.7 kcal mol-1 barrier) and HO2• elimination (43.5 kcal mol-1 barrier). These pathways lead to glyoxal + •OH and ketene + HO2• formation, respectively, but they are expected to be uncompetitive due to their high barriers.

Environmental Barrier Coating Fracture, Fatigue and High-Heat-Flux Durability Modeling and Stochastic Progressive Damage Simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhu, Dongming; Nemeth, Noel N.

2017-01-01

Advanced environmental barrier coatings will play an increasingly important role in future gas turbine engines because of their ability to protect emerging light-weight SiC/SiC ceramic matrix composite (CMC) engine components, further raising engine operating temperatures and performance. Because the environmental barrier coating systems are critical to the performance, reliability and durability of these hot-section ceramic engine components, a prime-reliant coating system along with established life design methodology are required for the hot-section ceramic component insertion into engine service. In this paper, we have first summarized some observations of high temperature, high-heat-flux environmental degradation and failure mechanisms of environmental barrier coating systems in laboratory simulated engine environment tests. In particular, the coating surface cracking morphologies and associated subsequent delamination mechanisms under the engine level high-heat-flux, combustion steam, and mechanical creep and fatigue loading conditions will be discussed. The EBC compostion and archtechture improvements based on advanced high heat flux environmental testing, and the modeling advances based on the integrated Finite Element Analysis Micromechanics Analysis Code/Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures (FEAMAC/CARES) program will also be highlighted. The stochastic progressive damage simulation successfully predicts mud flat damage pattern in EBCs on coated 3-D specimens, and a 2-D model of through-the-thickness cross-section. A 2-parameter Weibull distribution was assumed in characterizing the coating layer stochastic strength response and the formation of damage was therefore modeled. The damage initiation and coalescence into progressively smaller mudflat crack cells was demonstrated. A coating life prediction framework may be realized by examining the surface crack initiation and delamination propagation in conjunction with environmental degradation under high-heat-flux and environment load test conditions.

Model to predict hyperbilirubinemia in healthy term and near-term newborns with exclusive breast feeding.

PubMed

Huang, Hsin-Chung; Yang, Hwai-I; Chang, Yu-Hsun; Chang, Rui-Jane; Chen, Mei-Huei; Chen, Chien-Yi; Chou, Hung-Chieh; Hsieh, Wu-Shiun; Tsao, Po-Nien

2012-12-01

The aim of this study was to identify high-risk newborns who will subsequently develop significant hyperbilirubinemia Days 4 to 10 of life by using the clinical data from the first three days of life. We retrospectively collected exclusively breastfeeding healthy term and near-term newborns born in our nursery between May 1, 2002, to June 30, 2005. Clinical data, including serum bilirubin were collected and the significant predictors were identified. Bilirubin level ≥15mg/dL during Days 4 to 10 of life was defined as significant hyperbilirubinemia. A prediction model to predict subsequent hyperbilirubinemia was established. This model was externally validated in another group of newborns who were enrolled by the same criteria to test its discrimination capability. Totally, 1979 neonates were collected and 1208 cases were excluded by our exclusion criteria. Finally, 771 newborns were enrolled and 182 (23.6%) cases developed significant hyperbilirubinemia during Days 4 to 10 of life. In the logistic regression analysis, gestational age, maximal body weight loss percentage, and peak bilirubin level during the first 72 hours of life were significantly associated with subsequent hyperbilirubinemia. A prediction model was derived with the area under receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve of 0.788. Model validation in the separate study (N = 209) showed similar discrimination capability (AUROC = 0.8340). Gestational age, maximal body weight loss percentage, and peak serum bilirubin level during the first 3 days of life have highest predictive value of subsequent significant hyperbilirubinemia. We provide a good model to predict the risk of subsequent significant hyperbilirubinemia. Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier B.V.

TRANSAT-- method for detecting the conserved helices of functional RNA structures, including transient, pseudo-knotted and alternative structures.

PubMed

Wiebe, Nicholas J P; Meyer, Irmtraud M

2010-06-24

The prediction of functional RNA structures has attracted increased interest, as it allows us to study the potential functional roles of many genes. RNA structure prediction methods, however, assume that there is a unique functional RNA structure and also do not predict functional features required for in vivo folding. In order to understand how functional RNA structures form in vivo, we require sophisticated experiments or reliable prediction methods. So far, there exist only a few, experimentally validated transient RNA structures. On the computational side, there exist several computer programs which aim to predict the co-transcriptional folding pathway in vivo, but these make a range of simplifying assumptions and do not capture all features known to influence RNA folding in vivo. We want to investigate if evolutionarily related RNA genes fold in a similar way in vivo. To this end, we have developed a new computational method, Transat, which detects conserved helices of high statistical significance. We introduce the method, present a comprehensive performance evaluation and show that Transat is able to predict the structural features of known reference structures including pseudo-knotted ones as well as those of known alternative structural configurations. Transat can also identify unstructured sub-sequences bound by other molecules and provides evidence for new helices which may define folding pathways, supporting the notion that homologous RNA sequence not only assume a similar reference RNA structure, but also fold similarly. Finally, we show that the structural features predicted by Transat differ from those assuming thermodynamic equilibrium. Unlike the existing methods for predicting folding pathways, our method works in a comparative way. This has the disadvantage of not being able to predict features as function of time, but has the considerable advantage of highlighting conserved features and of not requiring a detailed knowledge of the cellular environment.

The Predictive Capability of Conditioned Simulation of Discrete Fracture Networks using Structural and Hydraulic Data from the ONKALO Underground Research Facility, Finland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, T. R. N.; Baxter, S.; Hartley, L.; Appleyard, P.; Koskinen, L.; Vanhanarkaus, O.; Selroos, J. O.; Munier, R.

2017-12-01

Discrete fracture network (DFN) models provide a natural analysis framework for rock conditions where flow is predominately through a series of connected discrete features. Mechanistic models to predict the structural patterns of networks are generally intractable due to inherent uncertainties (e.g. deformation history) and as such fracture characterisation typically involves empirical descriptions of fracture statistics for location, intensity, orientation, size, aperture etc. from analyses of field data. These DFN models are used to make probabilistic predictions of likely flow or solute transport conditions for a range of applications in underground resource and construction projects. However, there are many instances when the volumes in which predictions are most valuable are close to data sources. For example, in the disposal of hazardous materials such as radioactive waste, accurate predictions of flow-rates and network connectivity around disposal areas are required for long-term safety evaluation. The problem at hand is thus: how can probabilistic predictions be conditioned on local-scale measurements? This presentation demonstrates conditioning of a DFN model based on the current structural and hydraulic characterisation of the Demonstration Area at the ONKALO underground research facility. The conditioned realisations honour (to a required level of similarity) the locations, orientations and trace lengths of fractures mapped on the surfaces of the nearby ONKALO tunnels and pilot drillholes. Other data used as constraints include measurements from hydraulic injection tests performed in pilot drillholes and inflows to the subsequently reamed experimental deposition holes. Numerical simulations using this suite of conditioned DFN models provides a series of prediction-outcome exercises detailing the reliability of the DFN model to make local-scale predictions of measured geometric and hydraulic properties of the fracture system; and provides an understanding of the reduction in uncertainty in model predictions for conditioned DFN models honouring different aspects of this data.

Towards early software reliability prediction for computer forensic tools (case study).

PubMed

Abu Talib, Manar

2016-01-01

Versatility, flexibility and robustness are essential requirements for software forensic tools. Researchers and practitioners need to put more effort into assessing this type of tool. A Markov model is a robust means for analyzing and anticipating the functioning of an advanced component based system. It is used, for instance, to analyze the reliability of the state machines of real time reactive systems. This research extends the architecture-based software reliability prediction model for computer forensic tools, which is based on Markov chains and COSMIC-FFP. Basically, every part of the computer forensic tool is linked to a discrete time Markov chain. If this can be done, then a probabilistic analysis by Markov chains can be performed to analyze the reliability of the components and of the whole tool. The purposes of the proposed reliability assessment method are to evaluate the tool's reliability in the early phases of its development, to improve the reliability assessment process for large computer forensic tools over time, and to compare alternative tool designs. The reliability analysis can assist designers in choosing the most reliable topology for the components, which can maximize the reliability of the tool and meet the expected reliability level specified by the end-user. The approach of assessing component-based tool reliability in the COSMIC-FFP context is illustrated with the Forensic Toolkit Imager case study.

Impact of isotropic constitutive descriptions on the predicted peak wall stress in abdominal aortic aneurysms.

PubMed

Man, V; Polzer, S; Gasser, T C; Novotny, T; Bursa, J

2018-03-01

Biomechanics-based assessment of Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm (AAA) rupture risk has gained considerable scientific and clinical momentum. However, computation of peak wall stress (PWS) using state-of-the-art finite element models is time demanding. This study investigates which features of the constitutive description of AAA wall are decisive for achieving acceptable stress predictions in it. Influence of five different isotropic constitutive descriptions of AAA wall is tested; models reflect realistic non-linear, artificially stiff non-linear, or artificially stiff pseudo-linear constitutive descriptions of AAA wall. Influence of the AAA wall model is tested on idealized (n=4) and patient-specific (n=16) AAA geometries. Wall stress computations consider a (hypothetical) load-free configuration and include residual stresses homogenizing the stresses across the wall. Wall stress differences amongst the different descriptions were statistically analyzed. When the qualitatively similar non-linear response of the AAA wall with low initial stiffness and subsequent strain stiffening was taken into consideration, wall stress (and PWS) predictions did not change significantly. Keeping this non-linear feature when using an artificially stiff wall can save up to 30% of the computational time, without significant change in PWS. In contrast, a stiff pseudo-linear elastic model may underestimate the PWS and is not reliable for AAA wall stress computations. Copyright © 2018 IPEM. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) extreme rainfall forecasts for extended-range flood prediction in Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

White, C. J.; Franks, S. W.; McEvoy, D.

2015-06-01

Meteorological and hydrological centres around the world are looking at ways to improve their capacity to be able to produce and deliver skilful and reliable forecasts of high-impact extreme rainfall and flooding events on a range of prediction timescales (e.g. sub-daily, daily, multi-week, seasonal). Making improvements to extended-range rainfall and flood forecast models, assessing forecast skill and uncertainty, and exploring how to apply flood forecasts and communicate their benefits to decision-makers are significant challenges facing the forecasting and water resources management communities. This paper presents some of the latest science and initiatives from Australia on the development, application and communication of extreme rainfall and flood forecasts on the extended-range "subseasonal-to-seasonal" (S2S) forecasting timescale, with a focus on risk-based decision-making, increasing flood risk awareness and preparedness, capturing uncertainty, understanding human responses to flood forecasts and warnings, and the growing adoption of "climate services". The paper also demonstrates how forecasts of flood events across a range of prediction timescales could be beneficial to a range of sectors and society, most notably for disaster risk reduction (DRR) activities, emergency management and response, and strengthening community resilience. Extended-range S2S extreme flood forecasts, if presented as easily accessible, timely and relevant information are a valuable resource to help society better prepare for, and subsequently cope with, extreme flood events.

Complexities’ day-to-day dynamic evolution analysis and prediction for a Didi taxi trip network based on complex network theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Lin; Lu, Jian; Zhou, Jialin; Zhu, Jinqing; Li, Yunxuan; Wan, Qian

2018-03-01

Didi Dache is the most popular taxi order mobile app in China, which provides online taxi-hailing service. The obtained big database from this app could be used to analyze the complexities’ day-to-day dynamic evolution of Didi taxi trip network (DTTN) from the level of complex network dynamics. First, this paper proposes the data cleaning and modeling methods for expressing Nanjing’s DTTN as a complex network. Second, the three consecutive weeks’ data are cleaned to establish 21 DTTNs based on the proposed big data processing technology. Then, multiple topology measures that characterize the complexities’ day-to-day dynamic evolution of these networks are provided. Third, these measures of 21 DTTNs are calculated and subsequently explained with actual implications. They are used as a training set for modeling the BP neural network which is designed for predicting DTTN complexities evolution. Finally, the reliability of the designed BP neural network is verified by comparing with the actual data and the results obtained from ARIMA method simultaneously. Because network complexities are the basis for modeling cascading failures and conducting link prediction in complex system, this proposed research framework not only provides a novel perspective for analyzing DTTN from the level of system aggregated behavior, but can also be used to improve the DTTN management level.

Synergy between NMR measurements and MD simulations of protein/RNA complexes: application to the RRMs, the most common RNA recognition motifs

PubMed Central

Krepl, Miroslav; Cléry, Antoine; Blatter, Markus; Allain, Frederic H.T.; Sponer, Jiri

2016-01-01

RNA recognition motif (RRM) proteins represent an abundant class of proteins playing key roles in RNA biology. We present a joint atomistic molecular dynamics (MD) and experimental study of two RRM-containing proteins bound with their single-stranded target RNAs, namely the Fox-1 and SRSF1 complexes. The simulations are used in conjunction with NMR spectroscopy to interpret and expand the available structural data. We accumulate more than 50 μs of simulations and show that the MD method is robust enough to reliably describe the structural dynamics of the RRM–RNA complexes. The simulations predict unanticipated specific participation of Arg142 at the protein–RNA interface of the SRFS1 complex, which is subsequently confirmed by NMR and ITC measurements. Several segments of the protein–RNA interface may involve competition between dynamical local substates rather than firmly formed interactions, which is indirectly consistent with the primary NMR data. We demonstrate that the simulations can be used to interpret the NMR atomistic models and can provide qualified predictions. Finally, we propose a protocol for ‘MD-adapted structure ensemble’ as a way to integrate the simulation predictions and expand upon the deposited NMR structures. Unbiased μs-scale atomistic MD could become a technique routinely complementing the NMR measurements of protein–RNA complexes. PMID:27193998

Do patient characteristics predict outcome in the outpatient treatment of chronic tinnitus?

PubMed

Kröner-Herwig, Birgit; Zachriat, Claudia; Weigand, Doreen

2006-12-06

Various patient characteristics were assessed before offering a treatment to reduce tinnitus related distress to 57 individuals suffering from chronic idiopathic tinnitus. Patients were randomly assigned to a cognitive-behavioral tinnitus coping training (TCT) and a habituation-based training (HT) modelled after Tinnitus Retraining Therapy (TRT) as conceived by Jastreboff. Both trainings were conducted in groups. It was hypothesized that comorbidity regarding mental disorders or psychopathological symptoms (DSM-IV diagnoses, SCL-90R score) and a high level of dysfunctional cognitions relating to tinnitus would have a negative effect on therapy outcome while both trainings proved to be highly efficacious for the average patient. Also further patient features (assessed at baseline) were explored as potential predictors of outcome. None of the hypotheses was corroborated by the data. On the contrary, a higher number of diagnoses was associated with better outcome (statistical trend) and a higher extent of annoyance and interference led to a larger positive change in patients if treated by TCT. No predictor could be identified for long-term success (follow-up ≥18 months) except regarding education. The higher the educational level, the larger was the improvement in HT patients. It is concluded that therapy outcome of TCT and HT can not reliably be predicted by patient characteristics and that early variables of the therapeutic process should be analysed as potentially predicting subsequent therapeutic outcome.

Do patient characteristics predict outcome in the outpatient treatment of chronic tinnitus?

PubMed Central

Kröner-Herwig, Birgit; Zachriat, Claudia; Weigand, Doreen

2006-01-01

Various patient characteristics were assessed before offering a treatment to reduce tinnitus related distress to 57 individuals suffering from chronic idiopathic tinnitus. Patients were randomly assigned to a cognitive-behavioral tinnitus coping training (TCT) and a habituation-based training (HT) modelled after Tinnitus Retraining Therapy (TRT) as conceived by Jastreboff. Both trainings were conducted in groups. It was hypothesized that comorbidity regarding mental disorders or psychopathological symptoms (DSM-IV diagnoses, SCL-90R score) and a high level of dysfunctional cognitions relating to tinnitus would have a negative effect on therapy outcome while both trainings proved to be highly efficacious for the average patient. Also further patient features (assessed at baseline) were explored as potential predictors of outcome. None of the hypotheses was corroborated by the data. On the contrary, a higher number of diagnoses was associated with better outcome (statistical trend) and a higher extent of annoyance and interference led to a larger positive change in patients if treated by TCT. No predictor could be identified for long-term success (follow-up ≥18 months) except regarding education. The higher the educational level, the larger was the improvement in HT patients. It is concluded that therapy outcome of TCT and HT can not reliably be predicted by patient characteristics and that early variables of the therapeutic process should be analysed as potentially predicting subsequent therapeutic outcome. PMID:19742075

Quantifying uncertainties in streamflow predictions through signature based inference of hydrological model parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fenicia, Fabrizio; Reichert, Peter; Kavetski, Dmitri; Albert, Calro

2016-04-01

The calibration of hydrological models based on signatures (e.g. Flow Duration Curves - FDCs) is often advocated as an alternative to model calibration based on the full time series of system responses (e.g. hydrographs). Signature based calibration is motivated by various arguments. From a conceptual perspective, calibration on signatures is a way to filter out errors that are difficult to represent when calibrating on the full time series. Such errors may for example occur when observed and simulated hydrographs are shifted, either on the "time" axis (i.e. left or right), or on the "streamflow" axis (i.e. above or below). These shifts may be due to errors in the precipitation input (time or amount), and if not properly accounted in the likelihood function, may cause biased parameter estimates (e.g. estimated model parameters that do not reproduce the recession characteristics of a hydrograph). From a practical perspective, signature based calibration is seen as a possible solution for making predictions in ungauged basins. Where streamflow data are not available, it may in fact be possible to reliably estimate streamflow signatures. Previous research has for example shown how FDCs can be reliably estimated at ungauged locations based on climatic and physiographic influence factors. Typically, the goal of signature based calibration is not the prediction of the signatures themselves, but the prediction of the system responses. Ideally, the prediction of system responses should be accompanied by a reliable quantification of the associated uncertainties. Previous approaches for signature based calibration, however, do not allow reliable estimates of streamflow predictive distributions. Here, we illustrate how the Bayesian approach can be employed to obtain reliable streamflow predictive distributions based on signatures. A case study is presented, where a hydrological model is calibrated on FDCs and additional signatures. We propose an approach where the likelihood function for the signatures is derived from the likelihood for streamflow (rather than using an "ad-hoc" likelihood for the signatures as done in previous approaches). This likelihood is not easily tractable analytically and we therefore cannot apply "simple" MCMC methods. This numerical problem is solved using Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC). Our result indicate that the proposed approach is suitable for producing reliable streamflow predictive distributions based on calibration to signature data. Moreover, our results provide indications on which signatures are more appropriate to represent the information content of the hydrograph.

Reliable probabilities through statistical post-processing of ensemble predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Schaeybroeck, Bert; Vannitsem, Stéphane

2013-04-01

We develop post-processing or calibration approaches based on linear regression that make ensemble forecasts more reliable. We enforce climatological reliability in the sense that the total variability of the prediction is equal to the variability of the observations. Second, we impose ensemble reliability such that the spread around the ensemble mean of the observation coincides with the one of the ensemble members. In general the attractors of the model and reality are inhomogeneous. Therefore ensemble spread displays a variability not taken into account in standard post-processing methods. We overcome this by weighting the ensemble by a variable error. The approaches are tested in the context of the Lorenz 96 model (Lorenz 1996). The forecasts become more reliable at short lead times as reflected by a flatter rank histogram. Our best method turns out to be superior to well-established methods like EVMOS (Van Schaeybroeck and Vannitsem, 2011) and Nonhomogeneous Gaussian Regression (Gneiting et al., 2005). References [1] Gneiting, T., Raftery, A. E., Westveld, A., Goldman, T., 2005: Calibrated probabilistic forecasting using ensemble model output statistics and minimum CRPS estimation. Mon. Weather Rev. 133, 1098-1118. [2] Lorenz, E. N., 1996: Predictability - a problem partly solved. Proceedings, Seminar on Predictability ECMWF. 1, 1-18. [3] Van Schaeybroeck, B., and S. Vannitsem, 2011: Post-processing through linear regression, Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 18, 147.

Expanding Reliability Generalization Methods with KR-21 Estimates: An RG Study of the Coopersmith Self-Esteem Inventory.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lane, Ginny G.; White, Amy E.; Henson, Robin K.

2002-01-01

Conducted a reliability generalizability study on the Coopersmith Self-Esteem Inventory (CSEI; S. Coopersmith, 1967) to examine the variability of reliability estimates across studies and to identify study characteristics that may predict this variability. Results show that reliability for CSEI scores can vary considerably, especially at the…

A Reliability Generalization Study of the Marlowe-Crowne Social Desirability Scale.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Beretvas, S, Natasha; Meyers, Jason L.; Leite, Walter L.

2002-01-01

Conducted a reliability generalization study of the Marlowe-Crowne Social Desirability Scale (D. Crowne and D. Marlowe, 1960). Analysis of 93 studies show that the predicted score reliability for male adolescents was 0.53, and reliability for men's responses was lower than for women's. Discusses the need for further analysis of the scale. (SLD)

Maximizing the reliability of genomic selection by optimizing the calibration set of reference individuals: comparison of methods in two diverse groups of maize inbreds (Zea mays L.).

PubMed

Rincent, R; Laloë, D; Nicolas, S; Altmann, T; Brunel, D; Revilla, P; Rodríguez, V M; Moreno-Gonzalez, J; Melchinger, A; Bauer, E; Schoen, C-C; Meyer, N; Giauffret, C; Bauland, C; Jamin, P; Laborde, J; Monod, H; Flament, P; Charcosset, A; Moreau, L

2012-10-01

Genomic selection refers to the use of genotypic information for predicting breeding values of selection candidates. A prediction formula is calibrated with the genotypes and phenotypes of reference individuals constituting the calibration set. The size and the composition of this set are essential parameters affecting the prediction reliabilities. The objective of this study was to maximize reliabilities by optimizing the calibration set. Different criteria based on the diversity or on the prediction error variance (PEV) derived from the realized additive relationship matrix-best linear unbiased predictions model (RA-BLUP) were used to select the reference individuals. For the latter, we considered the mean of the PEV of the contrasts between each selection candidate and the mean of the population (PEVmean) and the mean of the expected reliabilities of the same contrasts (CDmean). These criteria were tested with phenotypic data collected on two diversity panels of maize (Zea mays L.) genotyped with a 50k SNPs array. In the two panels, samples chosen based on CDmean gave higher reliabilities than random samples for various calibration set sizes. CDmean also appeared superior to PEVmean, which can be explained by the fact that it takes into account the reduction of variance due to the relatedness between individuals. Selected samples were close to optimality for a wide range of trait heritabilities, which suggests that the strategy presented here can efficiently sample subsets in panels of inbred lines. A script to optimize reference samples based on CDmean is available on request.

Reliability Practice at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pruessner, Paula S.; Li, Ming

2008-01-01

This paper describes in brief the Reliability and Maintainability (R&M) Programs performed directly by the reliability branch at Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). The mission assurance requirements flow down is explained. GSFC practices for PRA, reliability prediction/fault tree analysis/reliability block diagram, FMEA, part stress and derating analysis, worst case analysis, trend analysis, limit life items are presented. Lessons learned are summarized and recommendations on improvement are identified.

The Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire: psychometric properties of the parent and teacher version in children aged 4-7.

PubMed

Stone, Lisanne L; Janssens, Jan M A M; Vermulst, Ad A; Van Der Maten, Marloes; Engels, Rutger C M E; Otten, Roy

2015-01-01

The Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire is one of the most employed screening instruments. Although there is a large research body investigating its psychometric properties, reliability and validity are not yet fully tested using modern techniques. Therefore, we investigate reliability, construct validity, measurement invariance, and predictive validity of the parent and teacher version in children aged 4-7. Besides, we intend to replicate previous studies by investigating test-retest reliability and criterion validity. In a Dutch community sample 2,238 teachers and 1,513 parents filled out questionnaires regarding problem behaviors and parenting, while 1,831 children reported on sociometric measures at T1. These children were followed-up during three consecutive years. Reliability was examined using Cronbach's alpha and McDonald's omega, construct validity was examined by Confirmatory Factor Analysis, and predictive validity was examined by calculating developmental profiles and linking these to measures of inadequate parenting, parenting stress and social preference. Further, mean scores and percentiles were examined in order to establish norms. Omega was consistently higher than alpha regarding reliability. The original five-factor structure was replicated, and measurement invariance was established on a configural level. Further, higher SDQ scores were associated with future indices of higher inadequate parenting, higher parenting stress and lower social preference. Finally, previous results on test-retest reliability and criterion validity were replicated. This study is the first to show SDQ scores are predictively valid, attesting to the feasibility of the SDQ as a screening instrument. Future research into predictive validity of the SDQ is warranted.

Response to novelty as a predictor of cocaine sensitization and conditioning in rats: a correlational analysis.

PubMed

Carey, Robert J; DePalma, Gail; Damianopoulos, Ernest

2003-07-01

An animal's response to novelty has been suggested to be a predictor of its response to drugs of abuse. The possible relationship between an individual's behavioral response to novelty and its subsequent behavioral response to cocaine has not been subjected to a detailed correlational analysis. To use a repeated cocaine treatment protocol to induce cocaine sensitization and conditioned cocaine locomotor stimulant effects and to assess the relationship of these effects to pre-cocaine locomotor behavior in a novel environment. In two separate experiments, rats were given a 20-min test in a novel open-field environment. Subsequently, the rats were given a series of additional tests in conjunction with either saline or cocaine (10 mg/kg) treatments to induce cocaine sensitization and conditioned effects. The repeated cocaine treatments induced cocaine behavioral sensitization and conditioned effects. Correlational analyses showed that the initial 20-min novel environment test proved to be a strong predictor of an animal's subsequent saline activity level but did not predict the rats' behavioral acute and sensitized response to cocaine. When change in activity was used as the dependent variable, initial activity level was reliably negatively correlated with activity changes on cocaine tests as well as cocaine conditioning tests. The negative correlation between initial activity in a novel environment and the change in activity induced by cocaine indicates that low responders to environmental novelty tend to have the strongest response to cocaine. These results appear consistent with the classic initial value and response rate dependent analyses of stimulant drug effects.

Neural correlates of encoding processes predicting subsequent cued recall and source memory.

PubMed

Angel, Lucie; Isingrini, Michel; Bouazzaoui, Badiâa; Fay, Séverine

2013-03-06

In this experiment, event-related potentials were used to examine whether the neural correlates of encoding processes predicting subsequent successful recall differed from those predicting successful source memory retrieval. During encoding, participants studied lists of words and were instructed to memorize each word and the list in which it occurred. At test, they had to complete stems (the first four letters) with a studied word and then make a judgment of the initial temporal context (i.e. list). Event-related potentials recorded during encoding were segregated according to subsequent memory performance to examine subsequent memory effects (SMEs) reflecting successful cued recall (cued recall SME) and successful source retrieval (source memory SME). Data showed a cued recall SME on parietal electrode sites from 400 to 1200 ms and a late inversed cued recall SME on frontal sites in the 1200-1400 ms period. Moreover, a source memory SME was reported from 400 to 1400 ms on frontal areas. These findings indicate that patterns of encoding-related activity predicting successful recall and source memory are clearly dissociated.

Effect of Individual Component Life Distribution on Engine Life Prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zaretsky, Erwin V.; Hendricks, Robert C.; Soditus, Sherry M.

2003-01-01

The effect of individual engine component life distributions on engine life prediction was determined. A Weibull-based life and reliability analysis of the NASA Energy Efficient Engine was conducted. The engine s life at a 95 and 99.9 percent probability of survival was determined based upon the engine manufacturer s original life calculations and assumed values of each of the component s cumulative life distributions as represented by a Weibull slope. The lives of the high-pressure turbine (HPT) disks and blades were also evaluated individually and as a system in a similar manner. Knowing the statistical cumulative distribution of each engine component with reasonable engineering certainty is a condition precedent to predicting the life and reliability of an entire engine. The life of a system at a given reliability will be less than the lowest-lived component in the system at the same reliability (probability of survival). Where Weibull slopes of all the engine components are equal, the Weibull slope had a minimal effect on engine L(sub 0.1) life prediction. However, at a probability of survival of 95 percent (L(sub 5) life), life decreased with increasing Weibull slope.

What do we gain with Probabilistic Flood Loss Models?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schroeter, K.; Kreibich, H.; Vogel, K.; Merz, B.; Lüdtke, S.

2015-12-01

The reliability of flood loss models is a prerequisite for their practical usefulness. Oftentimes, traditional uni-variate damage models as for instance depth-damage curves fail to reproduce the variability of observed flood damage. Innovative multi-variate probabilistic modelling approaches are promising to capture and quantify the uncertainty involved and thus to improve the basis for decision making. In this study we compare the predictive capability of two probabilistic modelling approaches, namely Bagging Decision Trees and Bayesian Networks and traditional stage damage functions which are cast in a probabilistic framework. For model evaluation we use empirical damage data which are available from computer aided telephone interviews that were respectively compiled after the floods in 2002, 2005, 2006 and 2013 in the Elbe and Danube catchments in Germany. We carry out a split sample test by sub-setting the damage records. One sub-set is used to derive the models and the remaining records are used to evaluate the predictive performance of the model. Further we stratify the sample according to catchments which allows studying model performance in a spatial transfer context. Flood damage estimation is carried out on the scale of the individual buildings in terms of relative damage. The predictive performance of the models is assessed in terms of systematic deviations (mean bias), precision (mean absolute error) as well as in terms of reliability which is represented by the proportion of the number of observations that fall within the 95-quantile and 5-quantile predictive interval. The reliability of the probabilistic predictions within validation runs decreases only slightly and achieves a very good coverage of observations within the predictive interval. Probabilistic models provide quantitative information about prediction uncertainty which is crucial to assess the reliability of model predictions and improves the usefulness of model results.

Bootstrap Prediction Intervals in Non-Parametric Regression with Applications to Anomaly Detection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kumar, Sricharan; Srivistava, Ashok N.

2012-01-01

Prediction intervals provide a measure of the probable interval in which the outputs of a regression model can be expected to occur. Subsequently, these prediction intervals can be used to determine if the observed output is anomalous or not, conditioned on the input. In this paper, a procedure for determining prediction intervals for outputs of nonparametric regression models using bootstrap methods is proposed. Bootstrap methods allow for a non-parametric approach to computing prediction intervals with no specific assumptions about the sampling distribution of the noise or the data. The asymptotic fidelity of the proposed prediction intervals is theoretically proved. Subsequently, the validity of the bootstrap based prediction intervals is illustrated via simulations. Finally, the bootstrap prediction intervals are applied to the problem of anomaly detection on aviation data.

Rollover risk prediction of heavy vehicles by reliability index and empirical modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sellami, Yamine; Imine, Hocine; Boubezoul, Abderrahmane; Cadiou, Jean-Charles

2018-03-01

This paper focuses on a combination of a reliability-based approach and an empirical modelling approach for rollover risk assessment of heavy vehicles. A reliability-based warning system is developed to alert the driver to a potential rollover before entering into a bend. The idea behind the proposed methodology is to estimate the rollover risk by the probability that the vehicle load transfer ratio (LTR) exceeds a critical threshold. Accordingly, a so-called reliability index may be used as a measure to assess the vehicle safe functioning. In the reliability method, computing the maximum of LTR requires to predict the vehicle dynamics over the bend which can be in some cases an intractable problem or time-consuming. With the aim of improving the reliability computation time, an empirical model is developed to substitute the vehicle dynamics and rollover models. This is done by using the SVM (Support Vector Machines) algorithm. The preliminary obtained results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

Software reliability report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Larry

1991-01-01

There are many software reliability models which try to predict future performance of software based on data generated by the debugging process. Unfortunately, the models appear to be unable to account for the random nature of the data. If the same code is debugged multiple times and one of the models is used to make predictions, intolerable variance is observed in the resulting reliability predictions. It is believed that data replication can remove this variance in lab type situations and that it is less than scientific to talk about validating a software reliability model without considering replication. It is also believed that data replication may prove to be cost effective in the real world, thus the research centered on verification of the need for replication and on methodologies for generating replicated data in a cost effective manner. The context of the debugging graph was pursued by simulation and experimentation. Simulation was done for the Basic model and the Log-Poisson model. Reasonable values of the parameters were assigned and used to generate simulated data which is then processed by the models in order to determine limitations on their accuracy. These experiments exploit the existing software and program specimens which are in AIR-LAB to measure the performance of reliability models.

Software reliability studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Larry W.

1989-01-01

The longterm goal of this research is to identify or create a model for use in analyzing the reliability of flight control software. The immediate tasks addressed are the creation of data useful to the study of software reliability and production of results pertinent to software reliability through the analysis of existing reliability models and data. The completed data creation portion of this research consists of a Generic Checkout System (GCS) design document created in cooperation with NASA and Research Triangle Institute (RTI) experimenters. This will lead to design and code reviews with the resulting product being one of the versions used in the Terminal Descent Experiment being conducted by the Systems Validations Methods Branch (SVMB) of NASA/Langley. An appended paper details an investigation of the Jelinski-Moranda and Geometric models for software reliability. The models were given data from a process that they have correctly simulated and asked to make predictions about the reliability of that process. It was found that either model will usually fail to make good predictions. These problems were attributed to randomness in the data and replication of data was recommended.

The reliability and validity of ultrasound to quantify muscles in older adults: a systematic review

PubMed Central

Scafoglieri, Aldo; Jager‐Wittenaar, Harriët; Hobbelen, Johannes S.M.; van der Schans, Cees P.

2017-01-01

Abstract This review evaluates the reliability and validity of ultrasound to quantify muscles in older adults. The databases PubMed, Cochrane, and Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature were systematically searched for studies. In 17 studies, the reliability (n = 13) and validity (n = 8) of ultrasound to quantify muscles in community‐dwelling older adults (≥60 years) or a clinical population were evaluated. Four out of 13 reliability studies investigated both intra‐rater and inter‐rater reliability. Intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) scores for reliability ranged from −0.26 to 1.00. The highest ICC scores were found for the vastus lateralis, rectus femoris, upper arm anterior, and the trunk (ICC = 0.72 to 1.000). All included validity studies found ICC scores ranging from 0.92 to 0.999. Two studies describing the validity of ultrasound to predict lean body mass showed good validity as compared with dual‐energy X‐ray absorptiometry (r 2 = 0.92 to 0.96). This systematic review shows that ultrasound is a reliable and valid tool for the assessment of muscle size in older adults. More high‐quality research is required to confirm these findings in both clinical and healthy populations. Furthermore, ultrasound assessment of small muscles needs further evaluation. Ultrasound to predict lean body mass is feasible; however, future research is required to validate prediction equations in older adults with varying function and health. PMID:28703496

Reliability assessments in qualitative health promotion research.

PubMed

Cook, Kay E

2012-03-01

This article contributes to the debate about the use of reliability assessments in qualitative research in general, and health promotion research in particular. In this article, I examine the use of reliability assessments in qualitative health promotion research in response to health promotion researchers' commonly held misconception that reliability assessments improve the rigor of qualitative research. All qualitative articles published in the journal Health Promotion International from 2003 to 2009 employing reliability assessments were examined. In total, 31.3% (20/64) articles employed some form of reliability assessment. The use of reliability assessments increased over the study period, ranging from <20% in 2003/2004 to 50% and above in 2008/2009, while at the same time the total number of qualitative articles decreased. The articles were then classified into four types of reliability assessments, including the verification of thematic codes, the use of inter-rater reliability statistics, congruence in team coding and congruence in coding across sites. The merits of each type were discussed, with the subsequent discussion focusing on the deductive nature of reliable thematic coding, the limited depth of immediately verifiable data and the usefulness of such studies to health promotion and the advancement of the qualitative paradigm.

Reliability Driven Space Logistics Demand Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Knezevic, J.

1995-01-01

Accurate selection of the quantity of logistic support resources has a strong influence on mission success, system availability and the cost of ownership. At the same time the accurate prediction of these resources depends on the accurate prediction of the reliability measures of the items involved. This paper presents a method for the advanced and accurate calculation of the reliability measures of complex space systems which are the basis for the determination of the demands for logistics resources needed during the operational life or mission of space systems. The applicability of the method presented is demonstrated through several examples.

Reliable prediction intervals with regression neural networks.

PubMed

Papadopoulos, Harris; Haralambous, Haris

2011-10-01

This paper proposes an extension to conventional regression neural networks (NNs) for replacing the point predictions they produce with prediction intervals that satisfy a required level of confidence. Our approach follows a novel machine learning framework, called Conformal Prediction (CP), for assigning reliable confidence measures to predictions without assuming anything more than that the data are independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.). We evaluate the proposed method on four benchmark datasets and on the problem of predicting Total Electron Content (TEC), which is an important parameter in trans-ionospheric links; for the latter we use a dataset of more than 60000 TEC measurements collected over a period of 11 years. Our experimental results show that the prediction intervals produced by our method are both well calibrated and tight enough to be useful in practice. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimation of reliability of predictions and model applicability domain evaluation in the analysis of acute toxicity (LD50).

PubMed

Sazonovas, A; Japertas, P; Didziapetris, R

2010-01-01

This study presents a new type of acute toxicity (LD(50)) prediction that enables automated assessment of the reliability of predictions (which is synonymous with the assessment of the Model Applicability Domain as defined by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development). Analysis involved nearly 75,000 compounds from six animal systems (acute rat toxicity after oral and intraperitoneal administration; acute mouse toxicity after oral, intraperitoneal, intravenous, and subcutaneous administration). Fragmental Partial Least Squares (PLS) with 100 bootstraps yielded baseline predictions that were automatically corrected for non-linear effects in local chemical spaces--a combination called Global, Adjusted Locally According to Similarity (GALAS) modelling methodology. Each prediction obtained in this manner is provided with a reliability index value that depends on both compound's similarity to the training set (that accounts for similar trends in LD(50) variations within multiple bootstraps) and consistency of experimental results with regard to the baseline model in the local chemical environment. The actual performance of the Reliability Index (RI) was proven by its good (and uniform) correlations with Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) in all validation sets, thus providing quantitative assessment of the Model Applicability Domain. The obtained models can be used for compound screening in the early stages of drug development and prioritization for experimental in vitro testing or later in vivo animal acute toxicity studies.

Calculations of reliability predictions for the Apollo spacecraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Amstadter, B. L.

1966-01-01

A new method of reliability prediction for complex systems is defined. Calculation of both upper and lower bounds are involved, and a procedure for combining the two to yield an approximately true prediction value is presented. Both mission success and crew safety predictions can be calculated, and success probabilities can be obtained for individual mission phases or subsystems. Primary consideration is given to evaluating cases involving zero or one failure per subsystem, and the results of these evaluations are then used for analyzing multiple failure cases. Extensive development is provided for the overall mission success and crew safety equations for both the upper and lower bounds.

Reliability and Validity of the Load-Velocity Relationship to Predict the 1RM Back Squat.

PubMed

Banyard, Harry G; Nosaka, Kazunori; Haff, G Gregory

2017-07-01

Banyard, HG, Nosaka, K, and Haff, GG. Reliability and validity of the load-velocity relationship to predict the 1RM back squat. J Strength Cond Res 31(7): 1897-1904, 2017-This study investigated the reliability and validity of the load-velocity relationship to predict the free-weight back squat one repetition maximum (1RM). Seventeen strength-trained males performed three 1RM assessments on 3 separate days. All repetitions were performed to full depth with maximal concentric effort. Predicted 1RMs were calculated by entering the mean concentric velocity of the 1RM (V1RM) into an individualized linear regression equation, which was derived from the load-velocity relationship of 3 (20, 40, 60% of 1RM), 4 (20, 40, 60, 80% of 1RM), or 5 (20, 40, 60, 80, 90% of 1RM) incremental warm-up sets. The actual 1RM (140.3 ± 27.2 kg) was very stable between 3 trials (ICC = 0.99; SEM = 2.9 kg; CV = 2.1%; ES = 0.11). Predicted 1RM from 5 warm-up sets up to and including 90% of 1RM was the most reliable (ICC = 0.92; SEM = 8.6 kg; CV = 5.7%; ES = -0.02) and valid (r = 0.93; SEE = 10.6 kg; CV = 7.4%; ES = 0.71) of the predicted 1RM methods. However, all predicted 1RMs were significantly different (p ≤ 0.05; ES = 0.71-1.04) from the actual 1RM. Individual variation for the actual 1RM was small between trials ranging from -5.6 to 4.8% compared with the most accurate predictive method up to 90% of 1RM, which was more variable (-5.5 to 27.8%). Importantly, the V1RM (0.24 ± 0.06 m·s) was unreliable between trials (ICC = 0.42; SEM = 0.05 m·s; CV = 22.5%; ES = 0.14). The load-velocity relationship for the full depth free-weight back squat showed moderate reliability and validity but could not accurately predict 1RM, which was stable between trials. Thus, the load-velocity relationship 1RM prediction method used in this study cannot accurately modify sessional training loads because of large V1RM variability.

A Note on Some Characteristics and Correlates of the Meier Art Test of Aesthetic Perception.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stallings, William M.; Anderson, Frances E.

The reliability and the predictive and concurrent validity of the MATAP were investigated with the implicit goal of improving the prediction of course grades in the College of Fine and Applied Arts. It was found that reliability and validity coefficients were low, and it was suggested that the scoring system was a source of error variance. (MS)

A Compatible Hardware/Software Reliability Prediction Model.

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-07-22

machines. In particular, he was interested in the following problem: assu me that one has a collection of connected elements computing and transmitting...software reliability prediction model is desirable, the findings about the Weibull distribution are intriguing. After collecting failure data from several...capacitor, some of the added charge carriers are collected by the capacitor. If the added charge is sufficiently large, the information stored is changed

Cost prediction model for various payloads and instruments for the Space Shuttle Orbiter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hoffman, F. E.

1984-01-01

The following cost parameters of the space shuttle were undertaken: (1) to develop a cost prediction model for various payload classes of instruments and experiments for the Space Shuttle Orbiter; and (2) to show the implications of various payload classes on the cost of: reliability analysis, quality assurance, environmental design requirements, documentation, parts selection, and other reliability enhancing activities.

A new lifetime estimation model for a quicker LED reliability prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamon, B. H.; Mendizabal, L.; Feuillet, G.; Gasse, A.; Bataillou, B.

2014-09-01

LED reliability and lifetime prediction is a key point for Solid State Lighting adoption. For this purpose, one hundred and fifty LEDs have been aged for a reliability analysis. LEDs have been grouped following nine current-temperature stress conditions. Stress driving current was fixed between 350mA and 1A and ambient temperature between 85C and 120°C. Using integrating sphere and I(V) measurements, a cross study of the evolution of electrical and optical characteristics has been done. Results show two main failure mechanisms regarding lumen maintenance. The first one is the typically observed lumen depreciation and the second one is a much more quicker depreciation related to an increase of the leakage and non radiative currents. Models of the typical lumen depreciation and leakage resistance depreciation have been made using electrical and optical measurements during the aging tests. The combination of those models allows a new method toward a quicker LED lifetime prediction. These two models have been used for lifetime predictions for LEDs.

Genomic predictions can accelerate selection for resistance against Piscirickettsia salmonis in Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar).

PubMed

Bangera, Rama; Correa, Katharina; Lhorente, Jean P; Figueroa, René; Yáñez, José M

2017-01-31

Salmon Rickettsial Syndrome (SRS) caused by Piscirickettsia salmonis is a major disease affecting the Chilean salmon industry. Genomic selection (GS) is a method wherein genome-wide markers and phenotype information of full-sibs are used to predict genomic EBV (GEBV) of selection candidates and is expected to have increased accuracy and response to selection over traditional pedigree based Best Linear Unbiased Prediction (PBLUP). Widely used GS methods such as genomic BLUP (GBLUP), SNPBLUP, Bayes C and Bayesian Lasso may perform differently with respect to accuracy of GEBV prediction. Our aim was to compare the accuracy, in terms of reliability of genome-enabled prediction, from different GS methods with PBLUP for resistance to SRS in an Atlantic salmon breeding program. Number of days to death (DAYS), binary survival status (STATUS) phenotypes, and 50 K SNP array genotypes were obtained from 2601 smolts challenged with P. salmonis. The reliability of different GS methods at different SNP densities with and without pedigree were compared to PBLUP using a five-fold cross validation scheme. Heritability estimated from GS methods was significantly higher than PBLUP. Pearson's correlation between predicted GEBV from PBLUP and GS models ranged from 0.79 to 0.91 and 0.79-0.95 for DAYS and STATUS, respectively. The relative increase in reliability from different GS methods for DAYS and STATUS with 50 K SNP ranged from 8 to 25% and 27-30%, respectively. All GS methods outperformed PBLUP at all marker densities. DAYS and STATUS showed superior reliability over PBLUP even at the lowest marker density of 3 K and 500 SNP, respectively. 20 K SNP showed close to maximal reliability for both traits with little improvement using higher densities. These results indicate that genomic predictions can accelerate genetic progress for SRS resistance in Atlantic salmon and implementation of this approach will contribute to the control of SRS in Chile. We recommend GBLUP for routine GS evaluation because this method is computationally faster and the results are very similar with other GS methods. The use of lower density SNP or the combination of low density SNP and an imputation strategy may help to reduce genotyping costs without compromising gain in reliability.

A New Method for the Evaluation and Prediction of Base Stealing Performance.

PubMed

Bricker, Joshua C; Bailey, Christopher A; Driggers, Austin R; McInnis, Timothy C; Alami, Arya

2016-11-01

Bricker, JC, Bailey, CA, Driggers, AR, McInnis, TC, and Alami, A. A new method for the evaluation and prediction of base stealing performance. J Strength Cond Res 30(11): 3044-3050, 2016-The purposes of this study were to evaluate a new method using electronic timing gates to monitor base stealing performance in terms of reliability, differences between it and traditional stopwatch-collected times, and its ability to predict base stealing performance. Twenty-five healthy collegiate baseball players performed maximal effort base stealing trials with a right and left-handed pitcher. An infrared electronic timing system was used to calculate the reaction time (RT) and total time (TT), whereas coaches' times (CT) were recorded with digital stopwatches. Reliability of the TGM was evaluated with intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs) and coefficient of variation (CV). Differences between the TGM and traditional CT were calculated with paired samples t tests Cohen's d effect size estimates. Base stealing performance predictability of the TGM was evaluated with Pearson's bivariate correlations. Acceptable relative reliability was observed (ICCs 0.74-0.84). Absolute reliability measures were acceptable for TT (CVs = 4.4-4.8%), but measures were elevated for RT (CVs = 32.3-35.5%). Statistical and practical differences were found between TT and CT (right p = 0.00, d = 1.28 and left p = 0.00, d = 1.49). The TGM TT seems to be a decent predictor of base stealing performance (r = -0.49 to -0.61). The authors recommend using the TGM used in this investigation for athlete monitoring because it was found to be reliable, seems to be more precise than traditional CT measured with a stopwatch, provides an additional variable of value (RT), and may predict future performance.

Risk prediction models of breast cancer: a systematic review of model performances.

PubMed

Anothaisintawee, Thunyarat; Teerawattananon, Yot; Wiratkapun, Chollathip; Kasamesup, Vijj; Thakkinstian, Ammarin

2012-05-01

The number of risk prediction models has been increasingly developed, for estimating about breast cancer in individual women. However, those model performances are questionable. We therefore have conducted a study with the aim to systematically review previous risk prediction models. The results from this review help to identify the most reliable model and indicate the strengths and weaknesses of each model for guiding future model development. We searched MEDLINE (PubMed) from 1949 and EMBASE (Ovid) from 1974 until October 2010. Observational studies which constructed models using regression methods were selected. Information about model development and performance were extracted. Twenty-five out of 453 studies were eligible. Of these, 18 developed prediction models and 7 validated existing prediction models. Up to 13 variables were included in the models and sample sizes for each study ranged from 550 to 2,404,636. Internal validation was performed in four models, while five models had external validation. Gail and Rosner and Colditz models were the significant models which were subsequently modified by other scholars. Calibration performance of most models was fair to good (expected/observe ratio: 0.87-1.12), but discriminatory accuracy was poor to fair both in internal validation (concordance statistics: 0.53-0.66) and in external validation (concordance statistics: 0.56-0.63). Most models yielded relatively poor discrimination in both internal and external validation. This poor discriminatory accuracy of existing models might be because of a lack of knowledge about risk factors, heterogeneous subtypes of breast cancer, and different distributions of risk factors across populations. In addition the concordance statistic itself is insensitive to measure the improvement of discrimination. Therefore, the new method such as net reclassification index should be considered to evaluate the improvement of the performance of a new develop model.

Reliability Growth and Its Applications to Dormant Reliability

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-12-01

ability to make projection about future reli- ability (Rof 9:41-42). Barlow and Scheuer Model. Richard E. Barlow and Ernest M. Sch~uvr, of the University...Reliability Growth Prediction Models," Operations Research, 18(l):S2-6S (January/February 1970). 7. Bauer, John, William Hadley, and Robert Dietz... Texarkana , Texas, May 1973. (AD 768 119). 10. Bonis, Austin J. "Reliability Growth Curves for One Shot Devices," Proceedings 1977 Annual Reliability and

Web-based training and interrater reliability testing for scoring the Hamilton Depression Rating Scale.

PubMed

Rosen, Jules; Mulsant, Benoit H; Marino, Patricia; Groening, Christopher; Young, Robert C; Fox, Debra

2008-10-30

Despite the importance of establishing shared scoring conventions and assessing interrater reliability in clinical trials in psychiatry, these elements are often overlooked. Obstacles to rater training and reliability testing include logistic difficulties in providing live training sessions, or mailing videotapes of patients to multiple sites and collecting the data for analysis. To address some of these obstacles, a web-based interactive video system was developed. It uses actors of diverse ages, gender and race to train raters how to score the Hamilton Depression Rating Scale and to assess interrater reliability. This system was tested with a group of experienced and novice raters within a single site. It was subsequently used to train raters of a federally funded multi-center clinical trial on scoring conventions and to test their interrater reliability. The advantages and limitations of using interactive video technology to improve the quality of clinical trials are discussed.

Development, reliability, and validity of the My Child's Play (MCP) questionnaire.

PubMed

Schneider, Eleanor; Rosenblum, Sara

2014-01-01

This article describes the development, reliability, and validity of My Child's Play (MCP), a parent questionnaire designed to evaluate the play of children ages 3-9 yr. The first phase of the study determined the questionnaire's content and face validity. Subsequently, the internal reliability consistency and construct and concurrent validity were demonstrated using 334 completed questionnaires. The MCP showed good internal consistency (α = .86). The factor analysis revealed four distinct factors with acceptable levels of internal reliability (Cronbach's αs = .63-.81) and gender- and age-related differences in play characteristics; both findings attest to the tool's construct validity. Significant correlations (r = .33, p < .0001) with the Parent as a Teacher Inventory demonstrate the MCP's concurrent validity. The MCP demonstrated acceptable reliability and validity. It appears to be a promising standardized assessment tool for use in research and practice to promote understanding of a child's play. Copyright © 2014 by the American Occupational Therapy Association, Inc.

[Reliability and validity studies of Turkish translation of Eysenck Personality Questionnaire Revised-Abbreviated].

PubMed

Karanci, A Nuray; Dirik, Gülay; Yorulmaz, Orçun

2007-01-01

The aim of the present study was to examine the reliability and the validity of the Turkish translation of the Eysneck Personality Questionnaire Revised-abbreviated Form (EPQR-A) (Francis et al., 1992), which consists of 24 items that assess neuroticism, extraversion, psychoticism, and lying. The questionnaire was first translated into Turkish and then back translated. Subsequently, it was administered to 756 students from 4 different universities. The Fear Survey Inventory-III (FSI-III), Rosenberg Self-Esteem Scales (RSES), and Egna Minnen Betraffande Uppfostran (EMBU-C) were also administered in order to assess the questionnaire's validity. The internal consistency, test-retest reliability, and validity were subsequently evaluated. Factor analysis, similar to the original scale, yielded 4 factors; the neuroticism, extraversion, psychoticism, and lie scales. Kuder-Richardson alpha coefficients for the extraversion, neuroticism, psychoticism, and lie scales were 0.78, 0.65, 0.42, and 0.64, respectively, and the test-retest reliability of the scales was 0.84, 0.82, 0.69, and 0.69, respectively. The relationships between EPQR-A-48, FSI-III, EMBU-C, and RSES were examined in order to evaluate the construct validity of the scale. Our findings support the construct validity of the questionnaire. To investigate gender differences in scores on the subscales, MANOVA was conducted. The results indicated that there was a gender difference only in the lie scale scores. Our findings largely supported the reliability and validity of the questionnaire in a Turkish student sample. The psychometric characteristics of the Turkish version of the EPQR-A were discussed in light of the relevant literature.

Reliability of measures of transient evoked otoacoustic emissions with contralateral suppression.

PubMed

Stuart, Andrew; Cobb, Kensi M

2015-01-01

The reliability of measures of transient evoked otoacoustic emissions (TEOAEs) with contralateral suppression was examined. The effect of test session (i.e., initial test; retest without probe removal; retest with probe removal; and retest 1-2 days post initial test), gender, and ear was examined in 14 young adult females and 14 young adult males. TEOAEs were obtained bilaterally with 60 dB peSPL linear click stimuli with and without a contralateral 65 dB SPL broadband noise suppressor. Absolute TEOAE suppression and a normalized index of TEOAE suppression (i.e., percentage of suppression) were examined. Reliability of these measures was assessed with repeated measures linear mixed model analysis of variance, a coefficient of reliability, and Bland-Altman analyses. There were no statistically significant (p>0.05) main effects of test, gender, and ear or interactions for both absolute dB and % TEOAE suppression values. Cronbach's α were greater than 0.90 across the four tests for both TEOAE measures. Mean test differences or bias (i.e., between the initial and subsequent tests) for absolute and % TEOAE suppression ranged from -0.05 to 0.11 dB and -1.5% to 1.1%, respectively. There was no proportional/systematic bias with the mean differences of the first and subsequent measurements. Data herein were consistent with the view that bilateral TEOAE suppression measures are reliable across test sessions of 1-2 days among females and males and may provide a method to monitor medial olivocochlear efferent reflex status over time. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

On the reliability of computed chaotic solutions of non-linear differential equations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liao, Shijun

2009-08-01

A new concept, namely the critical predictable time Tc, is introduced to give a more precise description of computed chaotic solutions of non-linear differential equations: it is suggested that computed chaotic solutions are unreliable and doubtable when t > Tc. This provides us a strategy to detect reliable solution from a given computed result. In this way, the computational phenomena, such as computational chaos (CC), computational periodicity (CP) and computational prediction uncertainty, which are mainly based on long-term properties of computed time-series, can be completely avoided. Using this concept, the famous conclusion `accurate long-term prediction of chaos is impossible' should be replaced by a more precise conclusion that `accurate prediction of chaos beyond the critical predictable time Tc is impossible'. So, this concept also provides us a timescale to determine whether or not a particular time is long enough for a given non-linear dynamic system. Besides, the influence of data inaccuracy and various numerical schemes on the critical predictable time is investigated in details by using symbolic computation software as a tool. A reliable chaotic solution of Lorenz equation in a rather large interval 0 <= t < 1200 non-dimensional Lorenz time units is obtained for the first time. It is found that the precision of the initial condition and the computed data at each time step, which is mathematically necessary to get such a reliable chaotic solution in such a long time, is so high that it is physically impossible due to the Heisenberg uncertainty principle in quantum physics. This, however, provides us a so-called `precision paradox of chaos', which suggests that the prediction uncertainty of chaos is physically unavoidable, and that even the macroscopical phenomena might be essentially stochastic and thus could be described by probability more economically.

Reliability Analysis of Uniaxially Ground Brittle Materials

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Salem, Jonathan A.; Nemeth, Noel N.; Powers, Lynn M.; Choi, Sung R.

1995-01-01

The fast fracture strength distribution of uniaxially ground, alpha silicon carbide was investigated as a function of grinding angle relative to the principal stress direction in flexure. Both as-ground and ground/annealed surfaces were investigated. The resulting flexural strength distributions were used to verify reliability models and predict the strength distribution of larger plate specimens tested in biaxial flexure. Complete fractography was done on the specimens. Failures occurred from agglomerates, machining cracks, or hybrid flaws that consisted of a machining crack located at a processing agglomerate. Annealing eliminated failures due to machining damage. Reliability analyses were performed using two and three parameter Weibull and Batdorf methodologies. The Weibull size effect was demonstrated for machining flaws. Mixed mode reliability models reasonably predicted the strength distributions of uniaxial flexure and biaxial plate specimens.

Reliability and Validity of the Visual, Musculoskeletal, and Balance Complaints Questionnaire.

PubMed

Lundqvist, Lars-Olov; Zetterlund, Christina; Richter, Hans O

2016-09-01

To evaluate the reliability and validity of the 15-item Visual, Musculoskeletal, and Balance Complaints Questionnaire (VMB) for people with visual impairments, using confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) and with Rasch analysis for use as an outcome measure. Two studies evaluated the VMB. In Study 1, VMB data were collected from 1249 out of 3063 individuals between 18 and 104 years old who were registered at a low vision center. CFA evaluated VMB factor structure and Rasch analysis evaluated VMB scale properties. In Study 2, a subsample of 52 individuals between 27 and 67 years old with visual impairments underwent further measurements. Visual clinical assessments, neck/scapular pain, and balance assessments were collected to evaluate the convergent validity of the VMB (i.e. the domain relationship with other, theoretically predicted measures). CFA supported the a priori three-factor structure of the VMB. The factor loadings of the items on their respective domains were all statistically significant. Rasch analysis indicated disordered categories and the original 10-point scale was subsequently replaced with a 5-point scale. Each VMB domain fitted the Rasch model, showing good metric properties, including unidimensionality (explained variances ≥66% and eigenvalues <1.9), person separation (1.86 to 2.29), reliability (0.87 to 0.94), item fit (infit MnSq's >0.72 and outfit MnSq's <1.47), targeting (0.30 to 0.50 logits), and insignificant differential item functioning (all DIFs but one <0.50 logits) from gender, age, and visual status. The three VMB domains correlated significantly with relevant visual, musculoskeletal, and balance assessments, demonstrating adequate convergent validity of the VMB. The VMB is a simple, inexpensive, and quick yet reliable and valid way to screen and evaluate concurrent visual, musculoskeletal, and balance complaints, with contribution to epidemiological and intervention research and potential clinical implications for the field of health services and low vision rehabilitation.

Reliability, construct validity and determinants of 6-minute walk test performance in patients with chronic heart failure.

PubMed

Uszko-Lencer, Nicole H M K; Mesquita, Rafael; Janssen, Eefje; Werter, Christ; Brunner-La Rocca, Hans-Peter; Pitta, Fabio; Wouters, Emiel F M; Spruit, Martijn A

2017-08-01

In-depth analyses of the measurement properties of the 6-minute walk test (6MWT) in patients with chronic heart failure (CHF) are lacking. We investigated the reliability, construct validity, and determinants of the distance covered in the 6MWT (6MWD) in CHF patients. 337 patients were studied (median age 65years, 70% male, ejection fraction 35%). Participants performed two 6MWTs on subsequent days. Demographics, anthropometrics, clinical data, ejection fraction, maximal exercise capacity, body composition, lung function, and symptoms of anxiety and depression were also assessed. Construct validity was assessed in terms of convergent, discriminant and known-groups validity. Stepwise linear regression was used. 6MWT was reliable (ICC=0.90, P<0.0001). The learning effect was 31m (95%CI 27, 35m). Older age (≥65years), lower lung diffusing capacity (<80% predicted) and higher NYHA class (NYHA III) were associated with a lower likelihood of a meaningful increase in the second test (OR 0.45-0.56, P<0.05 for all). The best 6MWD had moderate-to-good correlations with peak exercise capacity (r s =0.54-0.69) and no-to-fair correlations with body composition, lung function, ejection fraction, and symptoms of anxiety and depression (r s =0.04-0.49). Patients with higher NYHA classes had lower 6MWD. 6MWD was independently associated with maximal power output during maximal exercise, estimated glomerular filtration rate and age (51.7% of the variability). 6MWT was found to be reliable and valid in patients with mild-to-moderate CHF. Maximal exercise capacity, renal function and age were significant determinants of the best 6MWD. These findings strengthen the clinical utility of the 6MWT in CHF. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Reliability and Validity of the Visual, Musculoskeletal, and Balance Complaints Questionnaire

PubMed Central

Lundqvist, Lars-Olov; Zetterlund, Christina; Richter, Hans O.

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT Purpose To evaluate the reliability and validity of the 15-item Visual, Musculoskeletal, and Balance Complaints Questionnaire (VMB) for people with visual impairments, using confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) and with Rasch analysis for use as an outcome measure. Methods Two studies evaluated the VMB. In Study 1, VMB data were collected from 1249 out of 3063 individuals between 18 and 104 years old who were registered at a low vision center. CFA evaluated VMB factor structure and Rasch analysis evaluated VMB scale properties. In Study 2, a subsample of 52 individuals between 27 and 67 years old with visual impairments underwent further measurements. Visual clinical assessments, neck/scapular pain, and balance assessments were collected to evaluate the convergent validity of the VMB (i.e. the domain relationship with other, theoretically predicted measures). Results CFA supported the a priori three-factor structure of the VMB. The factor loadings of the items on their respective domains were all statistically significant. Rasch analysis indicated disordered categories and the original 10-point scale was subsequently replaced with a 5-point scale. Each VMB domain fitted the Rasch model, showing good metric properties, including unidimensionality (explained variances ≥66% and eigenvalues <1.9), person separation (1.86 to 2.29), reliability (0.87 to 0.94), item fit (infit MnSq’s >0.72 and outfit MnSq’s <1.47), targeting (0.30 to 0.50 logits), and insignificant differential item functioning (all DIFs but one <0.50 logits) from gender, age, and visual status. The three VMB domains correlated significantly with relevant visual, musculoskeletal, and balance assessments, demonstrating adequate convergent validity of the VMB. Conclusions The VMB is a simple, inexpensive, and quick yet reliable and valid way to screen and evaluate concurrent visual, musculoskeletal, and balance complaints, with contribution to epidemiological and intervention research and potential clinical implications for the field of health services and low vision rehabilitation. PMID:27309524

Measurement of fatigue: Comparison of the reliability and validity of single-item and short measures to a comprehensive measure.

PubMed

Kim, Hee-Ju; Abraham, Ivo

2017-01-01

Evidence is needed on the clinicometric properties of single-item or short measures as alternatives to comprehensive measures. We examined whether two single-item fatigue measures (i.e., Likert scale, numeric rating scale) or a short fatigue measure were comparable to a comprehensive measure in reliability (i.e., internal consistency and test-retest reliability) and validity (i.e., convergent, concurrent, and predictive validity) in Korean young adults. For this quantitative study, we selected the Functional Assessment of Chronic Illness Therapy-Fatigue for the comprehensive measure and the Profile of Mood States-Brief, Fatigue subscale for the short measure; and constructed two single-item measures. A total of 368 students from four nursing colleges in South Korea participated. We used Cronbach's alpha and item-total correlation for internal consistency reliability and intraclass correlation coefficient for test-retest reliability. We assessed Pearson's correlation with a comprehensive measure for convergent validity, with perceived stress level and sleep quality for concurrent validity and the receiver operating characteristic curve for predictive validity. The short measure was comparable to the comprehensive measure in internal consistency reliability (Cronbach's alpha=0.81 vs. 0.88); test-retest reliability (intraclass correlation coefficient=0.66 vs. 0.61); convergent validity (r with comprehensive measure=0.79); concurrent validity (r with perceived stress=0.55, r with sleep quality=0.39) and predictive validity (area under curve=0.88). Single-item measures were not comparable to the comprehensive measure. A short fatigue measure exhibited similar levels of reliability and validity to the comprehensive measure in Korean young adults. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Opportunities of probabilistic flood loss models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schröter, Kai; Kreibich, Heidi; Lüdtke, Stefan; Vogel, Kristin; Merz, Bruno

2016-04-01

Oftentimes, traditional uni-variate damage models as for instance depth-damage curves fail to reproduce the variability of observed flood damage. However, reliable flood damage models are a prerequisite for the practical usefulness of the model results. Innovative multi-variate probabilistic modelling approaches are promising to capture and quantify the uncertainty involved and thus to improve the basis for decision making. In this study we compare the predictive capability of two probabilistic modelling approaches, namely Bagging Decision Trees and Bayesian Networks and traditional stage damage functions. For model evaluation we use empirical damage data which are available from computer aided telephone interviews that were respectively compiled after the floods in 2002, 2005, 2006 and 2013 in the Elbe and Danube catchments in Germany. We carry out a split sample test by sub-setting the damage records. One sub-set is used to derive the models and the remaining records are used to evaluate the predictive performance of the model. Further we stratify the sample according to catchments which allows studying model performance in a spatial transfer context. Flood damage estimation is carried out on the scale of the individual buildings in terms of relative damage. The predictive performance of the models is assessed in terms of systematic deviations (mean bias), precision (mean absolute error) as well as in terms of sharpness of the predictions the reliability which is represented by the proportion of the number of observations that fall within the 95-quantile and 5-quantile predictive interval. The comparison of the uni-variable Stage damage function and the multivariable model approach emphasises the importance to quantify predictive uncertainty. With each explanatory variable, the multi-variable model reveals an additional source of uncertainty. However, the predictive performance in terms of precision (mbe), accuracy (mae) and reliability (HR) is clearly improved in comparison to uni-variable Stage damage function. Overall, Probabilistic models provide quantitative information about prediction uncertainty which is crucial to assess the reliability of model predictions and improves the usefulness of model results.

Assuring reliability program effectiveness.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ball, L. W.

1973-01-01

An attempt is made to provide simple identification and description of techniques that have proved to be most useful either in developing a new product or in improving reliability of an established product. The first reliability task is obtaining and organizing parts failure rate data. Other tasks are parts screening, tabulation of general failure rates, preventive maintenance, prediction of new product reliability, and statistical demonstration of achieved reliability. Five principal tasks for improving reliability involve the physics of failure research, derating of internal stresses, control of external stresses, functional redundancy, and failure effects control. A final task is the training and motivation of reliability specialist engineers.

Comparison of Medicare Claims vs. Physician Adjudication for Identifying Stroke Outcomes in the Women’s Health Initiative

PubMed Central

Lakshminarayan, Kamakshi; Larson, Joseph C.; Virnig, Beth; Fuller, Candace; Allen, Norrina Bai; Limacher, Marian; Winkelmayer, Wolfgang C.; Safford, Monika M.; Burwen, Dale R.

2014-01-01

Background and Purpose Many studies use medical record review for ascertaining outcomes. One large, longitudinal study, the Women’s Health Initiative (WHI) ascertains strokes using participant self-report and subsequent physician review of medical records. This is resource-intensive. Herein, we assess whether Medicare data can reliably assess stroke events in the WHI. Methods Subjects were WHI participants with fee-for-service Medicare. Four stroke definitions were created for Medicare data using discharge diagnoses in hospitalization claims. Definition 1: stroke codes in any position; Definition 2: primary position stroke codes; Definitions 3 & 4: hemorrhagic and ischemic stroke codes respectively. WHI data were randomly split into training (50%) and test sets. A concordance matrix was used to examine agreement between WHI and Medicare stroke diagnosis. A WHI stroke and a Medicare stroke were considered a match if they occurred within +/− 7 days of each other. Refined analyses excluded Medicare events where medical records were unavailable for comparison. Results Training data (n=24,428): There were 577 WHI strokes and 557 Medicare strokes using definition 1. Of these, 478 were a match. Algorithm performance: Specificity 99.7%; Negative Predictive Value 99.7%; Sensitivity 82.8%; Positive Predictive Value 85.8%; kappa 0.84. Performance was similar for test data. While specificity and negative predictive value exceeded 99%, sensitivity ranged from 75 to 88% and positive predictive value ranged from 80 to 90% across stroke definitions. Conclusion Medicare data appear useful for population-based stroke research; however the performance characteristics depend on the definition selected. PMID:24525955

Reliability of IGBT in a STATCOM for Harmonic Compensation and Power Factor Correction

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gopi Reddy, Lakshmi Reddy; Tolbert, Leon M; Ozpineci, Burak

With smart grid integration, there is a need to characterize reliability of a power system by including reliability of power semiconductors in grid related applications. In this paper, the reliability of IGBTs in a STATCOM application is presented for two different applications, power factor correction and harmonic elimination. The STATCOM model is developed in EMTP, and analytical equations for average conduction losses in an IGBT and a diode are derived and compared with experimental data. A commonly used reliability model is used to predict reliability of IGBT.

Identifying dyslexia in adults: an iterative method using the predictive value of item scores and self-report questions.

PubMed

Tamboer, Peter; Vorst, Harrie C M; Oort, Frans J

2014-04-01

Methods for identifying dyslexia in adults vary widely between studies. Researchers have to decide how many tests to use, which tests are considered to be the most reliable, and how to determine cut-off scores. The aim of this study was to develop an objective and powerful method for diagnosing dyslexia. We took various methodological measures, most of which are new compared to previous methods. We used a large sample of Dutch first-year psychology students, we considered several options for exclusion and inclusion criteria, we collected as many cognitive tests as possible, we used six independent sources of biographical information for a criterion of dyslexia, we compared the predictive power of discriminant analyses and logistic regression analyses, we used both sum scores and item scores as predictor variables, we used self-report questions as predictor variables, and we retested the reliability of predictions with repeated prediction analyses using an adjusted criterion. We were able to identify 74 dyslexic and 369 non-dyslexic students. For 37 students, various predictions were too inconsistent for a final classification. The most reliable predictions were acquired with item scores and self-report questions. The main conclusion is that it is possible to identify dyslexia with a high reliability, although the exact nature of dyslexia is still unknown. We therefore believe that this study yielded valuable information for future methods of identifying dyslexia in Dutch as well as in other languages, and that this would be beneficial for comparing studies across countries.

The redoubtable ecological periodic table

EPA Science Inventory

Ecological periodic tables are repositories of reliable information on quantitative, predictably recurring (periodic) habitat–community patterns and their uncertainty, scaling and transferability. Their reliability derives from their grounding in sound ecological principle...

Application of an Integrated HPC Reliability Prediction Framework to HMMWV Suspension System

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-09-13

model number M966 (TOW Missle Carrier, Basic Armor without weapons), since they were available. Tires used for all simulations were the bias-type...vehicle fleet, including consideration of all kinds of uncertainty, especially including model uncertainty. The end result will be a tool to use...building an adequate vehicle reliability prediction framework for military vehicles is the accurate modeling of the integration of various types of

Design of Oil-Lubricated Machine for Life and Reliability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zaretsky, Erwin V.

2007-01-01

In the post-World War II era, the major technology drivers for improving the life, reliability, and performance of rolling-element bearings and gears have been the jet engine and the helicopter. By the late 1950s, most of the materials used for bearings and gears in the aerospace industry had been introduced into use. By the early 1960s, the life of most steels was increased over that experienced in the early 1940s, primarily by the introduction of vacuum degassing and vacuum melting processes in the late 1950s. The development of elastohydrodynamic (EHD) theory showed that most rolling bearings and gears have a thin film separating the contacting bodies during motion and it is that film which affects their lives. Computer programs modeling bearing and gear dynamics that incorporate probabilistic life prediction methods and EHD theory enable optimization of rotating machinery based on life and reliability. With improved manufacturing and processing, the potential improvement in bearing and gear life can be as much as 80 times that attainable in the early 1950s. The work presented summarizes the use of laboratory fatigue data for bearings and gears coupled with probabilistic life prediction and EHD theories to predict the life and reliability of a commercial turboprop gearbox. The resulting predictions are compared with field data.

Reproductive, Perinatal, and Environmental Factors as Predictors of the Cognitive and Language Development of Preterm and Full-Term Infants.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Siegel, Linda S.

1982-01-01

The accuracy of a risk index based on reproductive and demographic factors for predicting subsequent development was tested with 51 full-term and 53 preterm infants. In addition, the possibility that scores on the Home Observation for Measurement of the Environment scale might contribute significantly to the prediction of subsequent development…

Dual Pathways from Reactive Aggression to Depressive Symptoms in Children: Further Examination of the Failure Model.

PubMed

Evans, Spencer C; Fite, Paula J

2018-04-13

The failure model posits that peer rejection and poor academic performance are dual pathways in the association between early aggressive behavior and subsequent depressive symptoms. We examined this model using an accelerated longitudinal design while also incorporating proactive and reactive aggression and gender moderation. Children in 1st, 3rd, and 5th grades (n = 912; ages 6-12; 48% female) were rated three times annually by their primary teachers on measures of proactive and reactive aggression, peer rejection, academic performance, and depressive symptoms. Using Bayesian cross-classified estimation to account for nested and planned-missing data, path models were estimated to examine whether early reactive aggression predicted subsequent peer rejection and academic performance, and whether these, in turn, predicted subsequent depressive symptoms. From 1st to 3rd grade, reactive aggression predicted peer rejection (not academic performance), proactive aggression predicted academic performance (not peer rejection), and academic performance and peer rejection both predicted depressive symptoms. From 3rd to 5th grade, however, neither peer rejection nor academic performance predicted subsequent depressive symptoms. Results were not moderated by gender. Overall, these findings provide mixed and limited support for the failure model among school-age children. Early reactive aggression may be a key risk factor for social problems, whereas proactive aggression may be linked to improved academic functioning. The "dual pathways" of peer rejection and academic performance may operate during early but not later elementary school. Limitations and implications are discussed.

Cognitive Impairment Precedes and Predicts Functional Impairment in Mild Alzheimer's Disease.

PubMed

Liu-Seifert, Hong; Siemers, Eric; Price, Karen; Han, Baoguang; Selzler, Katherine J; Henley, David; Sundell, Karen; Aisen, Paul; Cummings, Jeffrey; Raskin, Joel; Mohs, Richard

2015-01-01

The temporal relationship of cognitive deficit and functional impairment in Alzheimer's disease (AD) is not well characterized. Recent analyses suggest cognitive decline predicts subsequent functional decline throughout AD progression. To better understand the relationship between cognitive and functional decline in mild AD using autoregressive cross-lagged (ARCL) panel analyses in several clinical trials. Data included placebo patients with mild AD pooled from two multicenter, double-blind, Phase 3 solanezumab (EXPEDITION/2) or semagacestat (IDENTITY/2) studies, and from AD patients participating in the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI). Cognitive and functional outcomes were assessed using AD Assessment Scale-Cognitive subscale (ADAS-Cog), AD Cooperative Study-Activities of Daily Living instrumental subscale (ADCS-iADL), or Functional Activities Questionnaire (FAQ), respectively. ARCL panel analyses evaluated relationships between cognitive and functional impairment over time. In EXPEDITION, ARCL panel analyses demonstrated cognitive scores significantly predicted future functional impairment at 5 of 6 time points, while functional scores predicted subsequent cognitive scores in only 1 of 6 time points. Data from IDENTITY and ADNI programs yielded consistent results whereby cognition predicted subsequent function, but not vice-versa. Analyses from three databases indicated cognitive decline precedes and predicts subsequent functional decline in mild AD dementia, consistent with previously proposed hypotheses, and corroborate recent publications using similar methodologies. Cognitive impairment may be used as a predictor of future functional impairment in mild AD dementia and can be considered a critical target for prevention strategies to limit future functional decline in the dementia process.

Modeling of BN Lifetime Prediction of a System Based on Integrated Multi-Level Information

PubMed Central

Wang, Xiaohong; Wang, Lizhi

2017-01-01

Predicting system lifetime is important to ensure safe and reliable operation of products, which requires integrated modeling based on multi-level, multi-sensor information. However, lifetime characteristics of equipment in a system are different and failure mechanisms are inter-coupled, which leads to complex logical correlations and the lack of a uniform lifetime measure. Based on a Bayesian network (BN), a lifetime prediction method for systems that combine multi-level sensor information is proposed. The method considers the correlation between accidental failures and degradation failure mechanisms, and achieves system modeling and lifetime prediction under complex logic correlations. This method is applied in the lifetime prediction of a multi-level solar-powered unmanned system, and the predicted results can provide guidance for the improvement of system reliability and for the maintenance and protection of the system. PMID:28926930

Modeling of BN Lifetime Prediction of a System Based on Integrated Multi-Level Information.

PubMed

Wang, Jingbin; Wang, Xiaohong; Wang, Lizhi

2017-09-15

Predicting system lifetime is important to ensure safe and reliable operation of products, which requires integrated modeling based on multi-level, multi-sensor information. However, lifetime characteristics of equipment in a system are different and failure mechanisms are inter-coupled, which leads to complex logical correlations and the lack of a uniform lifetime measure. Based on a Bayesian network (BN), a lifetime prediction method for systems that combine multi-level sensor information is proposed. The method considers the correlation between accidental failures and degradation failure mechanisms, and achieves system modeling and lifetime prediction under complex logic correlations. This method is applied in the lifetime prediction of a multi-level solar-powered unmanned system, and the predicted results can provide guidance for the improvement of system reliability and for the maintenance and protection of the system.

Structural reliability analysis under evidence theory using the active learning kriging model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Xufeng; Liu, Yongshou; Ma, Panke

2017-11-01

Structural reliability analysis under evidence theory is investigated. It is rigorously proved that a surrogate model providing only correct sign prediction of the performance function can meet the accuracy requirement of evidence-theory-based reliability analysis. Accordingly, a method based on the active learning kriging model which only correctly predicts the sign of the performance function is proposed. Interval Monte Carlo simulation and a modified optimization method based on Karush-Kuhn-Tucker conditions are introduced to make the method more efficient in estimating the bounds of failure probability based on the kriging model. Four examples are investigated to demonstrate the efficiency and accuracy of the proposed method.

A Comparison of Various Stress Rupture Life Models for Orbiter Composite Pressure Vessels and Confidence Intervals

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grimes-Ledesma, Lorie; Murthy, Pappu L. N.; Phoenix, S. Leigh; Glaser, Ronald

2007-01-01

In conjunction with a recent NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) investigation of flight worthiness of Kevlar Overwrapped Composite Pressure Vessels (COPVs) on board the Orbiter, two stress rupture life prediction models were proposed independently by Phoenix and by Glaser. In this paper, the use of these models to determine the system reliability of 24 COPVs currently in service on board the Orbiter is discussed. The models are briefly described, compared to each other, and model parameters and parameter uncertainties are also reviewed to understand confidence in reliability estimation as well as the sensitivities of these parameters in influencing overall predicted reliability levels. Differences and similarities in the various models will be compared via stress rupture reliability curves (stress ratio vs. lifetime plots). Also outlined will be the differences in the underlying model premises, and predictive outcomes. Sources of error and sensitivities in the models will be examined and discussed based on sensitivity analysis and confidence interval determination. Confidence interval results and their implications will be discussed for the models by Phoenix and Glaser.

Magnetic Resonance Imaging for Patellofemoral Chondromalacia: Is There a Role for T2 Mapping?

PubMed

van Eck, Carola F; Kingston, R Scott; Crues, John V; Kharrazi, F Daniel

2017-11-01

Patellofemoral pain is common, and treatment is guided by the presence and grade of chondromalacia. To evaluate and compare the sensitivity and specificity in detecting and grading chondral abnormalities of the patella between proton density fat suppression (PDFS) and T2 mapping magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Cohort study; Level of evidence, 2. A total of 25 patients who underwent MRI of the knee with both a PDFS sequence and T2 mapping and subsequently underwent arthroscopic knee surgery were included. The cartilage surface of the patella was graded on both MRI sequences by 2 independent, blinded radiologists. Cartilage was then graded during arthroscopic surgery by a sports medicine fellowship-trained orthopaedic surgeon. Reliability, sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy were determined for both MRI methods. The findings during arthroscopic surgery were considered the gold standard. Intraobserver and interobserver agreement for both PDFS (98.5% and 89.4%, respectively) and T2 mapping (99.4% and 91.3%, respectively) MRI were excellent. For T2 mapping, the sensitivity (61%) and specificity (64%) were comparable, whereas for PDFS there was a lower sensitivity (37%) but higher specificity (81%) in identifying cartilage abnormalities. This resulted in a similar accuracy for PDFS (59%) and T2 mapping (62%). Both PDFS and T2 mapping MRI were reliable but only moderately accurate in predicting patellar chondromalacia found during knee arthroscopic surgery.

Space Shuttle Program Primary Avionics Software System (PASS) Success Legacy - Quality and Reliability Date

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Orr, James K.; Peltier, Daryl

2010-01-01

Thsi slide presentation reviews the avionics software system on board the space shuttle, with particular emphasis on the quality and reliability. The Primary Avionics Software System (PASS) provides automatic and fly-by-wire control of critical shuttle systems which executes in redundant computers. Charts given show the number of space shuttle flights vs time, PASS's development history, and other charts that point to the reliability of the system's development. The reliability of the system is also compared to predicted reliability.

An approach for reduction of false predictions in reverse engineering of gene regulatory networks.

PubMed

Khan, Abhinandan; Saha, Goutam; Pal, Rajat Kumar

2018-05-14

A gene regulatory network discloses the regulatory interactions amongst genes, at a particular condition of the human body. The accurate reconstruction of such networks from time-series genetic expression data using computational tools offers a stiff challenge for contemporary computer scientists. This is crucial to facilitate the understanding of the proper functioning of a living organism. Unfortunately, the computational methods produce many false predictions along with the correct predictions, which is unwanted. Investigations in the domain focus on the identification of as many correct regulations as possible in the reverse engineering of gene regulatory networks to make it more reliable and biologically relevant. One way to achieve this is to reduce the number of incorrect predictions in the reconstructed networks. In the present investigation, we have proposed a novel scheme to decrease the number of false predictions by suitably combining several metaheuristic techniques. We have implemented the same using a dataset ensemble approach (i.e. combining multiple datasets) also. We have employed the proposed methodology on real-world experimental datasets of the SOS DNA Repair network of Escherichia coli and the IMRA network of Saccharomyces cerevisiae. Subsequently, we have experimented upon somewhat larger, in silico networks, namely, DREAM3 and DREAM4 Challenge networks, and 15-gene and 20-gene networks extracted from the GeneNetWeaver database. To study the effect of multiple datasets on the quality of the inferred networks, we have used four datasets in each experiment. The obtained results are encouraging enough as the proposed methodology can reduce the number of false predictions significantly, without using any supplementary prior biological information for larger gene regulatory networks. It is also observed that if a small amount of prior biological information is incorporated here, the results improve further w.r.t. the prediction of true positives. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Early EEG for outcome prediction of postanoxic coma: prospective cohort study with cost-minimization analysis.

PubMed

Sondag, Lotte; Ruijter, Barry J; Tjepkema-Cloostermans, Marleen C; Beishuizen, Albertus; Bosch, Frank H; van Til, Janine A; van Putten, Michel J A M; Hofmeijer, Jeannette

2017-05-15

We recently showed that electroencephalography (EEG) patterns within the first 24 hours robustly contribute to multimodal prediction of poor or good neurological outcome of comatose patients after cardiac arrest. Here, we confirm these results and present a cost-minimization analysis. Early prognosis contributes to communication between doctors and family, and may prevent inappropriate treatment. A prospective cohort study including 430 subsequent comatose patients after cardiac arrest was conducted at intensive care units of two teaching hospitals. Continuous EEG was started within 12 hours after cardiac arrest and continued up to 3 days. EEG patterns were visually classified as unfavorable (isoelectric, low-voltage, or burst suppression with identical bursts) or favorable (continuous patterns) at 12 and 24 hours after cardiac arrest. Outcome at 6 months was classified as good (cerebral performance category (CPC) 1 or 2) or poor (CPC 3, 4, or 5). Predictive values of EEG measures and cost-consequences from a hospital perspective were investigated, assuming EEG-based decision- making about withdrawal of life-sustaining treatment in the case of a poor predicted outcome. Poor outcome occurred in 197 patients (51% of those included in the analyses). Unfavorable EEG patterns at 24 hours predicted a poor outcome with specificity of 100% (95% CI 98-100%) and sensitivity of 29% (95% CI 22-36%). Favorable patterns at 12 hours predicted good outcome with specificity of 88% (95% CI 81-93%) and sensitivity of 51% (95% CI 42-60%). Treatment withdrawal based on an unfavorable EEG pattern at 24 hours resulted in a reduced mean ICU length of stay without increased mortality in the long term. This gave small cost reductions, depending on the timing of withdrawal. Early EEG contributes to reliable prediction of good or poor outcome of postanoxic coma and may lead to reduced length of ICU stay. In turn, this may bring small cost reductions.

Reliability and validity of the Haitian Creole PHQ-9.

PubMed

Marc, Linda G; Henderson, Whitney R; Desrosiers, Astrid; Testa, Marcia A; Jean, Samuel E; Akom, Eniko Edit

2014-12-01

There is limited information on depression in Haitians and this is partly attributable to the absence of culturally and linguistically adapted measures for depression. To perform a psychometric evaluation of the Haitian-Creole version of the PHQ-9 administered to men who have sex with men (MSM) in the Republic of Haiti. This study uses a cross-sectional design and data are from the Integrated Behavioral and Biological HIV Survey (IBBS) for MSM in Haiti. Inclusion criteria required that participants be male, ≥ 18 years, report sexual relations with a male partner in the last 12 months, and lived in Haiti during the past 3 months. Respondent Driven Sampling was used for participant recruitment. A structured questionnaire was verbally administered in Haitian-Creole capturing information on sociodemographics, sexual behaviors, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) status and depressive symptomatology using the PHQ-9. Psychometric analyses of the translated PHQ-9 assessed unidimensionality, factor structure, reliability, construct validity, and differential item functioning (DIF) across subgroups (age, educational level, sexual orientation and HIV status). In a study population of 1,028 MSM, the Haitian-Creole version of the PHQ-9 is unidimensional, has moderately high internal consistency reliability (α = 0.78), and shows evidence of construct validity where HIV-positive subjects have greater depression (p = 0.002). There is no evidence of DIF across age, education, sexual orientation or HIV status. HIV-positive MSM are twice as likely to screen positive for moderately severe and severe depressive symptoms compared to their HIV-negative counterparts. There is strong evidence for the psychometric adequacy of the translated PHQ-9 screening tool as a measure of depression with MSM in Haiti. Future research is necessary to examine the predictive validity of depression for subsequent health behaviors or clinical outcomes among Haitian MSM.

Reliability of Radioisotope Stirling Convertor Linear Alternator

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shah, Ashwin; Korovaichuk, Igor; Geng, Steven M.; Schreiber, Jeffrey G.

2006-01-01

Onboard radioisotope power systems being developed and planned for NASA s deep-space missions would require reliable design lifetimes of up to 14 years. Critical components and materials of Stirling convertors have been undergoing extensive testing and evaluation in support of a reliable performance for the specified life span. Of significant importance to the successful development of the Stirling convertor is the design of a lightweight and highly efficient linear alternator. Alternator performance could vary due to small deviations in the permanent magnet properties, operating temperature, and component geometries. Durability prediction and reliability of the alternator may be affected by these deviations from nominal design conditions. Therefore, it is important to evaluate the effect of these uncertainties in predicting the reliability of the linear alternator performance. This paper presents a study in which a reliability-based methodology is used to assess alternator performance. The response surface characterizing the induced open-circuit voltage performance is constructed using 3-D finite element magnetic analysis. Fast probability integration method is used to determine the probability of the desired performance and its sensitivity to the alternator design parameters.

Culture Representation in Human Reliability Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

David Gertman; Julie Marble; Steven Novack

Understanding human-system response is critical to being able to plan and predict mission success in the modern battlespace. Commonly, human reliability analysis has been used to predict failures of human performance in complex, critical systems. However, most human reliability methods fail to take culture into account. This paper takes an easily understood state of the art human reliability analysis method and extends that method to account for the influence of culture, including acceptance of new technology, upon performance. The cultural parameters used to modify the human reliability analysis were determined from two standard industry approaches to cultural assessment: Hofstede’s (1991)more » cultural factors and Davis’ (1989) technology acceptance model (TAM). The result is called the Culture Adjustment Method (CAM). An example is presented that (1) reviews human reliability assessment with and without cultural attributes for a Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) system attack, (2) demonstrates how country specific information can be used to increase the realism of HRA modeling, and (3) discusses the differences in human error probability estimates arising from cultural differences.« less

Performance and Reliability of Bonded Interfaces for High-Temperature Packaging (Presentation)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Devoto, D.

2014-11-01

The thermal performance and reliability of sintered-silver is being evaluated for power electronics packaging applications. This will be experimentally accomplished by the synthesis of large-area bonded interfaces between metalized substrates that will be subsequently subjected to thermal cycles. A finite element model of crack initiation and propagation in these bonded interfaces will allow for the interpretation of degradation rates by a crack-velocity (V)-stress intensity factor (K) analysis. The experiment is outlined, and the modeling approach is discussed.

Artificial neural network prediction of aircraft aeroelastic behavior

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pesonen, Urpo Juhani

An Artificial Neural Network that predicts aeroelastic behavior of aircraft is presented. The neural net was designed to predict the shape of a flexible wing in static flight conditions using results from a structural analysis and an aerodynamic analysis performed with traditional computational tools. To generate reliable training and testing data for the network, an aeroelastic analysis code using these tools as components was designed and validated. To demonstrate the advantages and reliability of Artificial Neural Networks, a network was also designed and trained to predict airfoil maximum lift at low Reynolds numbers where wind tunnel data was used for the training. Finally, a neural net was designed and trained to predict the static aeroelastic behavior of a wing without the need to iterate between the structural and aerodynamic solvers.

Adaptive hydrological flow field modeling based on water body extraction and surface information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Puttinaovarat, Supattra; Horkaew, Paramate; Khaimook, Kanit; Polnigongit, Weerapong

2015-01-01

Hydrological flow characteristic is one of the prime indicators for assessing flood. It plays a major part in determining drainage capability of the affected basin and also in the subsequent simulation and rainfall-runoff prediction. Thus far, flow directions were typically derived from terrain data which for flat landscapes are obscured by other man-made structures, hence undermining the practical potential. In the absence (or diminutive) of terrain slopes, water passages have a more pronounced effect on flow directions than elevations. This paper, therefore, presents detailed analyses and implementation of hydrological flow modeling from satellite and topographic images. Herein, gradual assignment based on support vector machine was applied to modified normalized difference water index and a digital surface model, in order to ensure reliable water labeling while suppressing modality-inherited artifacts and noise. Gradient vector flow was subsequently employed to reconstruct the flow field. Experiments comparing the proposed scheme with conventional water boundary delineation and flow reconstruction were presented. Respective assessments revealed its advantage over the generic stream burning. Specifically, it could extract water body from studied areas with 98.70% precision, 99.83% recall, 98.76% accuracy, and 99.26% F-measure. The correlations between resultant flows and those obtained from the stream burning were as high as 0.80±0.04 (p≤0.01 in all resolutions).

Extracardiac conduit obstruction: initial experience in the use of Doppler echocardiography for noninvasive estimation of pressure gradient.

PubMed

Reeder, G S; Currie, P J; Fyfe, D A; Hagler, D J; Seward, J B; Tajik, A J

1984-11-01

Extracardiac valved conduits are often employed in the repair of certain complex congenital heart defects; late obstruction is a well recognized problem that usually requires catheterization for definitive diagnosis. A reliable noninvasive method for detecting conduit stenosis would be clinically useful in identifying the small proportion of patients who develop this problem. Continuous wave Doppler echocardiography has been used successfully to estimate cardiac valvular obstructive lesions noninvasively. Twenty-three patients with prior extracardiac conduit placement for complex congenital heart disease underwent echocardiographic and continuous wave Doppler echocardiographic examinations to determine the presence and severity of conduit stenosis. In 20 of the 23 patients, an adequate conduit flow velocity profile was obtained, and in 10 an abnormally increased conduit flow velocity was present. All but one patient had significant obstruction proven at surgery and in one patient, surgery was planned. In three patients, an adequate conduit flow velocity profile could not be obtained but obstruction was still suspected based on high velocity tricuspid regurgitant Doppler signals. In these three patients, subsequent surgery also proved that conduit stenosis was present. Doppler-predicted gradients and right ventricular pressures showed an overall good correlation (r = 0.90) with measurements at subsequent cardiac catheterization. Continuous wave Doppler echocardiography appears to be a useful noninvasive tool for the detection and semiquantitation of extracardiac conduit stenosis.

Aggression is associated with greater subsequent alcohol consumption: A shared neural basis in the ventral striatum.

PubMed

Chester, David S; DeWall, C Nathan

2018-05-01

Alcohol use and abuse (e.g., binge drinking) are among the most reliable causes of aggressive behavior. Conversely, people with aggressive dispositions (e.g., intermittent explosive disorder) are at greater risk for subsequent substance abuse. Yet it remains unknown why aggression might promote subsequent alcohol use. Both aggressive acts and alcohol use are rewarding and linked to greater activity in neural reward circuitry. Through this shared instantiation of reward, aggression may then increase subsequent alcohol consumption. Supporting this mechanistic hypothesis, participants' aggressive behavior directed at someone who had recently rejected them, was associated with more subsequent beer consumption on an ad-lib drinking task. Using functional MRI, both aggressive behavior and beer consumption were associated with greater activity in the bilateral ventral striatum during acts of retaliatory aggression. These results imply that aggression is linked to subsequent alcohol abuse, and that a mechanism underlying this effect is likely to be the activation of the brain's reward circuitry during aggressive acts. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Multiplier method may be unreliable to predict the timing of temporary hemiepiphysiodesis for coronal angular deformity.

PubMed

Wu, Zhenkai; Ding, Jing; Zhao, Dahang; Zhao, Li; Li, Hai; Liu, Jianlin

2017-07-10

The multiplier method was introduced by Paley to calculate the timing for temporary hemiepiphysiodesis. However, this method has not been verified in terms of clinical outcome measure. We aimed to (1) predict the rate of angular correction per year (ACPY) at the various corresponding ages by means of multiplier method and verify the reliability based on the data from the published studies and (2) screen out risk factors for deviation of prediction. A comprehensive search was performed in the following electronic databases: Cochrane, PubMed, and EMBASE™. A total of 22 studies met the inclusion criteria. If the actual value of ACPY from the collected date was located out of the range of the predicted value based on the multiplier method, it was considered as the deviation of prediction (DOP). The associations of patient characteristics with DOP were assessed with the use of univariate logistic regression. Only one article was evaluated as moderate evidence; the remaining articles were evaluated as poor quality. The rate of DOP was 31.82%. In the detailed individual data of included studies, the rate of DOP was 55.44%. The multiplier method is not reliable in predicting the timing for temporary hemiepiphysiodesis, even though it is prone to be more reliable for the younger patients with idiopathic genu coronal deformity.

The Reliability and Validity of the Thoracolumbar Injury Classification System in Pediatric Spine Trauma.

PubMed

Savage, Jason W; Moore, Timothy A; Arnold, Paul M; Thakur, Nikhil; Hsu, Wellington K; Patel, Alpesh A; McCarthy, Kathryn; Schroeder, Gregory D; Vaccaro, Alexander R; Dimar, John R; Anderson, Paul A

2015-09-15

The thoracolumbar injury classification system (TLICS) was evaluated in 20 consecutive pediatric spine trauma cases. The purpose of this study was to determine the reliability and validity of the TLICS in pediatric spine trauma. The TLICS was developed to improve the categorization and management of thoracolumbar trauma. TLICS has been shown to have good reliability and validity in the adult population. The clinical and radiographical findings of 20 pediatric thoracolumbar fractures were prospectively presented to 20 surgeons with disparate levels of training and experience with spinal trauma. These injuries were consecutively scored using the TLICS. Cohen unweighted κ coefficients and Spearman rank order correlation values were calculated for the key parameters (injury morphology, status of posterior ligamentous complex, neurological status, TLICS total score, and proposed management) to assess the inter-rater reliabilities. Five surgeons scored the same cases 3 months later to assess the intra-rater reliability. The actual management of each case was then compared with the treatment recommended by the TLICS algorithm to assess validity. The inter-rater κ statistics of all subgroups (injury morphology, status of the posterior ligamentous complex, neurological status, TLICS total score, and proposed treatment) were within the range of moderate to substantial reproducibility (0.524-0.958). All subgroups had excellent intra-rater reliability (0.748-1.000). The various indices for validity were calculated (80.3% correct, 0.836 sensitivity, 0.785 specificity, 0.676 positive predictive value, 0.899 negative predictive value). Overall, TLICS demonstrated good validity. The TLICS has good reliability and validity when used in the pediatric population. The inter-rater reliability of predicting management and indices for validity are lower than those in adults with thoracolumbar fractures, which is likely due to differences in the way children are treated for certain types of injuries. TLICS can be used to reliably categorize thoracolumbar injuries in the pediatric population; however, modifications may be needed to better guide treatment in this specific patient population. 4.

Using light emitting diodes in traffic signals : final report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1998-07-01

In 1993, the Oregon Department of Transportation (ODOT) began testing red light emitting diodes (LED's) as a replacement to the incandescent lamps in vehicular and pedestrian signals. Field performance was found to be reliable and subsequently ODOT b...

Basis And Application Of The CARES/LIFE Computer Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nemeth, Noel N.; Janosik, Lesley A.; Gyekenyesi, John P.; Powers, Lynn M.

1996-01-01

Report discusses physical and mathematical basis of Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures LIFE prediction (CARES/LIFE) computer program, described in "Program for Evaluation of Reliability of Ceramic Parts" (LEW-16018).

Pitfalls and Precautions When Using Predicted Failure Data for Quantitative Analysis of Safety Risk for Human Rated Launch Vehicles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hatfield, Glen S.; Hark, Frank; Stott, James

2016-01-01

Launch vehicle reliability analysis is largely dependent upon using predicted failure rates from data sources such as MIL-HDBK-217F. Reliability prediction methodologies based on component data do not take into account risks attributable to manufacturing, assembly, and process controls. These sources often dominate component level reliability or risk of failure probability. While consequences of failure is often understood in assessing risk, using predicted values in a risk model to estimate the probability of occurrence will likely underestimate the risk. Managers and decision makers often use the probability of occurrence in determining whether to accept the risk or require a design modification. Due to the absence of system level test and operational data inherent in aerospace applications, the actual risk threshold for acceptance may not be appropriately characterized for decision making purposes. This paper will establish a method and approach to identify the pitfalls and precautions of accepting risk based solely upon predicted failure data. This approach will provide a set of guidelines that may be useful to arrive at a more realistic quantification of risk prior to acceptance by a program.

Interconnect fatigue design for terrestrial photovoltaic modules

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mon, G. R.; Moore, D. M.; Ross, R. G., Jr.

1982-01-01

The results of comprehensive investigation of interconnect fatigue that has led to the definition of useful reliability-design and life-prediction algorithms are presented. Experimental data indicate that the classical strain-cycle (fatigue) curve for the interconnect material is a good model of mean interconnect fatigue performance, but it fails to account for the broad statistical scatter, which is critical to reliability prediction. To fill this shortcoming the classical fatigue curve is combined with experimental cumulative interconnect failure rate data to yield statistical fatigue curves (having failure probability as a parameter) which enable (1) the prediction of cumulative interconnect failures during the design life of an array field, and (2) the unambiguous--ie., quantitative--interpretation of data from field-service qualification (accelerated thermal cycling) tests. Optimal interconnect cost-reliability design algorithms are derived based on minimizing the cost of energy over the design life of the array field.

Interconnect fatigue design for terrestrial photovoltaic modules

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mon, G. R.; Moore, D. M.; Ross, R. G., Jr.

1982-03-01

The results of comprehensive investigation of interconnect fatigue that has led to the definition of useful reliability-design and life-prediction algorithms are presented. Experimental data indicate that the classical strain-cycle (fatigue) curve for the interconnect material is a good model of mean interconnect fatigue performance, but it fails to account for the broad statistical scatter, which is critical to reliability prediction. To fill this shortcoming the classical fatigue curve is combined with experimental cumulative interconnect failure rate data to yield statistical fatigue curves (having failure probability as a parameter) which enable (1) the prediction of cumulative interconnect failures during the design life of an array field, and (2) the unambiguous--ie., quantitative--interpretation of data from field-service qualification (accelerated thermal cycling) tests. Optimal interconnect cost-reliability design algorithms are derived based on minimizing the cost of energy over the design life of the array field.

Audience preferences are predicted by temporal reliability of neural processing

PubMed Central

Dmochowski, Jacek P.; Bezdek, Matthew A.; Abelson, Brian P.; Johnson, John S.; Schumacher, Eric H.; Parra, Lucas C.

2014-01-01

Naturalistic stimuli evoke highly reliable brain activity across viewers. Here we record neural activity from a group of naive individuals while viewing popular, previously-broadcast television content for which the broad audience response is characterized by social media activity and audience ratings. We find that the level of inter-subject correlation in the evoked encephalographic responses predicts the expressions of interest and preference among thousands. Surprisingly, ratings of the larger audience are predicted with greater accuracy than those of the individuals from whom the neural data is obtained. An additional functional magnetic resonance imaging study employing a separate sample of subjects shows that the level of neural reliability evoked by these stimuli covaries with the amount of blood-oxygenation-level-dependent (BOLD) activation in higher-order visual and auditory regions. Our findings suggest that stimuli which we judge favourably may be those to which our brains respond in a stereotypical manner shared by our peers. PMID:25072833

Estimating the Reliability of Electronic Parts in High Radiation Fields

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Everline, Chester; Clark, Karla; Man, Guy; Rasmussen, Robert; Johnston, Allan; Kohlhase, Charles; Paulos, Todd

2008-01-01

Radiation effects on materials and electronic parts constrain the lifetime of flight systems visiting Europa. Understanding mission lifetime limits is critical to the design and planning of such a mission. Therefore, the operational aspects of radiation dose are a mission success issue. To predict and manage mission lifetime in a high radiation environment, system engineers need capable tools to trade radiation design choices against system design and reliability, and science achievements. Conventional tools and approaches provided past missions with conservative designs without the ability to predict their lifetime beyond the baseline mission.This paper describes a more systematic approach to understanding spacecraft design margin, allowing better prediction of spacecraft lifetime. This is possible because of newly available electronic parts radiation effects statistics and an enhanced spacecraft system reliability methodology. This new approach can be used in conjunction with traditional approaches for mission design. This paper describes the fundamentals of the new methodology.

Identification of Extracellular Segments by Mass Spectrometry Improves Topology Prediction of Transmembrane Proteins.

PubMed

Langó, Tamás; Róna, Gergely; Hunyadi-Gulyás, Éva; Turiák, Lilla; Varga, Julia; Dobson, László; Várady, György; Drahos, László; Vértessy, Beáta G; Medzihradszky, Katalin F; Szakács, Gergely; Tusnády, Gábor E

2017-02-13

Transmembrane proteins play crucial role in signaling, ion transport, nutrient uptake, as well as in maintaining the dynamic equilibrium between the internal and external environment of cells. Despite their important biological functions and abundance, less than 2% of all determined structures are transmembrane proteins. Given the persisting technical difficulties associated with high resolution structure determination of transmembrane proteins, additional methods, including computational and experimental techniques remain vital in promoting our understanding of their topologies, 3D structures, functions and interactions. Here we report a method for the high-throughput determination of extracellular segments of transmembrane proteins based on the identification of surface labeled and biotin captured peptide fragments by LC/MS/MS. We show that reliable identification of extracellular protein segments increases the accuracy and reliability of existing topology prediction algorithms. Using the experimental topology data as constraints, our improved prediction tool provides accurate and reliable topology models for hundreds of human transmembrane proteins.

System-wide versus component-specific trust using multiple aids.

PubMed

Keller, David; Rice, Stephen

2010-01-01

Previous research in operator trust toward automated aids has focused primarily on single aids. The current study focuses on how operator trust is affected by the presence of multiple aids. Two competing theories of multiple-trust are presented. A component-specific trust theory predicts that operators will differentially place their trust in automated aids that vary in reliability. A system-wide trust theory predicts that operators will treat multiple imperfect aids as one "system" and merge their trust across aids despite differences in the aids' reliability. A simulated flight task was used to test these theories, whereby operators performed a pursuit tracking task while concurrently monitoring multiple system gauges that were augmented with perfect or imperfect automated aids. The data revealed that a system-wide trust theory best predicted the data; operators merged their trust across both aids, behaving toward a perfectly reliable aid in the same manner as they did towards unreliable aids.

Audience preferences are predicted by temporal reliability of neural processing.

PubMed

Dmochowski, Jacek P; Bezdek, Matthew A; Abelson, Brian P; Johnson, John S; Schumacher, Eric H; Parra, Lucas C

2014-07-29

Naturalistic stimuli evoke highly reliable brain activity across viewers. Here we record neural activity from a group of naive individuals while viewing popular, previously-broadcast television content for which the broad audience response is characterized by social media activity and audience ratings. We find that the level of inter-subject correlation in the evoked encephalographic responses predicts the expressions of interest and preference among thousands. Surprisingly, ratings of the larger audience are predicted with greater accuracy than those of the individuals from whom the neural data is obtained. An additional functional magnetic resonance imaging study employing a separate sample of subjects shows that the level of neural reliability evoked by these stimuli covaries with the amount of blood-oxygenation-level-dependent (BOLD) activation in higher-order visual and auditory regions. Our findings suggest that stimuli which we judge favourably may be those to which our brains respond in a stereotypical manner shared by our peers.

Attendance Rates in a Workplace Predict Subsequent Outcome of Employment-Based Reinforcement of Cocaine Abstinence in Methadone Patients

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Donlin, Wendy D.; Knealing, Todd W.; Needham, Mick; Wong, Conrad J.; Silverman, Kenneth

2008-01-01

This study assessed whether attendance rates in a workplace predicted subsequent outcome of employment-based reinforcement of cocaine abstinence. Unemployed adults in Baltimore methadone programs who used cocaine (N = 111) could work in a workplace for 4 hr every weekday and earn $10.00 per hour in vouchers for 26 weeks. During an induction…

Is the First-Year Predictive for Study Success in Subsequent Years? Findings from an Academy of Music

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mennen, Josien; van der Klink, Marcel

2017-01-01

In higher education, departments are under increasing pressure to improve study success. Research in this field focusing on higher music education is scarce. The aim of this study was to gain insight into the predictive capability of the first year for study success of students at an academy of music in subsequent years. Data on study progression…

Continuum Damage Mechanics Used to Predict the Creep Life of Monolithic Ceramics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Powers, Lynn M.; Jadaan, Osama M.

1998-01-01

Significant improvements in propulsion and power generation for the next century will require revolutionary advances in high-temperature materials and structural design. Advanced ceramics are candidate materials for these elevated temperature applications. High-temperature and long-duration applications of monolithic ceramics can place their failure mode in the creep rupture regime. An analytical methodology in the form of the integrated design program-Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures/Creep (CARES/Creep) has been developed by the NASA Lewis Research Center to predict the life of ceramic structural components subjected to creep rupture conditions. This program utilizes commercially available finite element packages and takes into account the transient state of stress and creep strain distributions (stress relaxation as well as the asymmetric response to tension and compression). The creep life of a component is discretized into short time steps, during which the stress distribution is assumed constant. Then, the damage is calculated for each time step on the basis of a modified Monkman-Grant (MMG) creep rupture criterion. The cumulative damage is subsequently calculated as time elapses in a manner similar to Miner's rule for cyclic fatigue loading. Failure is assumed to occur when the normalized cumulative damage at any point in the component reaches unity. The corresponding time is the creep rupture life for that component.

Computer vision and machine learning for robust phenotyping in genome-wide studies

PubMed Central

Zhang, Jiaoping; Naik, Hsiang Sing; Assefa, Teshale; Sarkar, Soumik; Reddy, R. V. Chowda; Singh, Arti; Ganapathysubramanian, Baskar; Singh, Asheesh K.

2017-01-01

Traditional evaluation of crop biotic and abiotic stresses are time-consuming and labor-intensive limiting the ability to dissect the genetic basis of quantitative traits. A machine learning (ML)-enabled image-phenotyping pipeline for the genetic studies of abiotic stress iron deficiency chlorosis (IDC) of soybean is reported. IDC classification and severity for an association panel of 461 diverse plant-introduction accessions was evaluated using an end-to-end phenotyping workflow. The workflow consisted of a multi-stage procedure including: (1) optimized protocols for consistent image capture across plant canopies, (2) canopy identification and registration from cluttered backgrounds, (3) extraction of domain expert informed features from the processed images to accurately represent IDC expression, and (4) supervised ML-based classifiers that linked the automatically extracted features with expert-rating equivalent IDC scores. ML-generated phenotypic data were subsequently utilized for the genome-wide association study and genomic prediction. The results illustrate the reliability and advantage of ML-enabled image-phenotyping pipeline by identifying previously reported locus and a novel locus harboring a gene homolog involved in iron acquisition. This study demonstrates a promising path for integrating the phenotyping pipeline into genomic prediction, and provides a systematic framework enabling robust and quicker phenotyping through ground-based systems. PMID:28272456

Memorable Audiovisual Narratives Synchronize Sensory and Supramodal Neural Responses

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Abstract Our brains integrate information across sensory modalities to generate perceptual experiences and form memories. However, it is difficult to determine the conditions under which multisensory stimulation will benefit or hinder the retrieval of everyday experiences. We hypothesized that the determining factor is the reliability of information processing during stimulus presentation, which can be measured through intersubject correlation of stimulus-evoked activity. We therefore presented biographical auditory narratives and visual animations to 72 human subjects visually, auditorily, or combined, while neural activity was recorded using electroencephalography. Memory for the narrated information, contained in the auditory stream, was tested 3 weeks later. While the visual stimulus alone led to no meaningful retrieval, this related stimulus improved memory when it was combined with the story, even when it was temporally incongruent with the audio. Further, individuals with better subsequent memory elicited neural responses during encoding that were more correlated with their peers. Surprisingly, portions of this predictive synchronized activity were present regardless of the sensory modality of the stimulus. These data suggest that the strength of sensory and supramodal activity is predictive of memory performance after 3 weeks, and that neural synchrony may explain the mnemonic benefit of the functionally uninformative visual context observed for these real-world stimuli. PMID:27844062

Reliability generalization study of the Yale-Brown Obsessive-Compulsive Scale for children and adolescents.

PubMed

López-Pina, José Antonio; Sánchez-Meca, Julio; López-López, José Antonio; Marín-Martínez, Fulgencio; Núñez-Núñez, Rosa Ma; Rosa-Alcázar, Ana I; Gómez-Conesa, Antonia; Ferrer-Requena, Josefa

2015-01-01

The Yale-Brown Obsessive-Compulsive Scale for children and adolescents (CY-BOCS) is a frequently applied test to assess obsessive-compulsive symptoms. We conducted a reliability generalization meta-analysis on the CY-BOCS to estimate the average reliability, search for reliability moderators, and propose a predictive model that researchers and clinicians can use to estimate the expected reliability of the CY-BOCS scores. A total of 47 studies reporting a reliability coefficient with the data at hand were included in the meta-analysis. The results showed good reliability and a large variability associated to the standard deviation of total scores and sample size.

A process model for the heat-affected zone microstructure evolution in duplex stainless steel weldments: Part II. Application to electron beam welding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hemmer, H.; Grong, Ø.; Klokkehaug, S.

2000-03-01

In the present investigation, a process model for electron beam (EB) welding of different grades of duplex stainless steels (i.e. SAF 2205 and 2507) has been developed. A number of attractive features are built into the original finite element code, including (1) a separate module for prediction of the penetration depth and distribution of the heat source into the plate, (2) adaptive refinement of the three-dimensional (3-D) element mesh for quick and reliable solution of the differential heat flow equation, and (3) special subroutines for calculation of the heat-affected zone (HAZ) microstructure evolution. The process model has been validated by comparison with experimental data obtained from in situ thermocouple measurements and optical microscope examinations. Subsequently, its aptness to alloy design and optimization of welding conditions for duplex stainless steels is illustrated in different numerical examples and case studies pertaining to EB welding of tubular joints.

Combustion of hydrogen injected into a supersonic airstream (the SHIP computer program)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Markatos, N. C.; Spalding, D. B.; Tatchell, D. G.

1977-01-01

The mathematical and physical basis of the SHIP computer program which embodies a finite-difference, implicit numerical procedure for the computation of hydrogen injected into a supersonic airstream at an angle ranging from normal to parallel to the airstream main flow direction is described. The physical hypotheses built into the program include: a two-equation turbulence model, and a chemical equilibrium model for the hydrogen-oxygen reaction. Typical results for equilibrium combustion are presented and exhibit qualitatively plausible behavior. The computer time required for a given case is approximately 1 minute on a CDC 7600 machine. A discussion of the assumption of parabolic flow in the injection region is given which suggests that improvement in calculation in this region could be obtained by use of the partially parabolic procedure of Pratap and Spalding. It is concluded that the technique described herein provides the basis for an efficient and reliable means for predicting the effects of hydrogen injection into supersonic airstreams and of its subsequent combustion.

Computing diffuse fraction of global horizontal solar radiation: A model comparison.

PubMed

Dervishi, Sokol; Mahdavi, Ardeshir

2012-06-01

For simulation-based prediction of buildings' energy use or expected gains from building-integrated solar energy systems, information on both direct and diffuse component of solar radiation is necessary. Available measured data are, however, typically restricted to global horizontal irradiance. There have been thus many efforts in the past to develop algorithms for the derivation of the diffuse fraction of solar irradiance. In this context, the present paper compares eight models for estimating diffuse fraction of irradiance based on a database of measured irradiance from Vienna, Austria. These models generally involve mathematical formulations with multiple coefficients whose values are typically valid for a specific location. Subsequent to a first comparison of these eight models, three better performing models were selected for a more detailed analysis. Thereby, the coefficients of the models were modified to account for Vienna data. The results suggest that some models can provide relatively reliable estimations of the diffuse fractions of the global irradiance. The calibration procedure could only slightly improve the models' performance.

Large-scale network integration in the human brain tracks temporal fluctuations in memory encoding performance.

PubMed

Keerativittayayut, Ruedeerat; Aoki, Ryuta; Sarabi, Mitra Taghizadeh; Jimura, Koji; Nakahara, Kiyoshi

2018-06-18

Although activation/deactivation of specific brain regions have been shown to be predictive of successful memory encoding, the relationship between time-varying large-scale brain networks and fluctuations of memory encoding performance remains unclear. Here we investigated time-varying functional connectivity patterns across the human brain in periods of 30-40 s, which have recently been implicated in various cognitive functions. During functional magnetic resonance imaging, participants performed a memory encoding task, and their performance was assessed with a subsequent surprise memory test. A graph analysis of functional connectivity patterns revealed that increased integration of the subcortical, default-mode, salience, and visual subnetworks with other subnetworks is a hallmark of successful memory encoding. Moreover, multivariate analysis using the graph metrics of integration reliably classified the brain network states into the period of high (vs. low) memory encoding performance. Our findings suggest that a diverse set of brain systems dynamically interact to support successful memory encoding. © 2018, Keerativittayayut et al.

A review on sludge dewatering indices.

PubMed

To, Vu Hien Phuong; Nguyen, Tien Vinh; Vigneswaran, Saravanamuth; Ngo, Huu Hao

2016-01-01

Dewatering of sludge from sewage treatment plants is proving to be a significant challenge due to the large amounts of residual sludges generated annually. In recent years, research and development have focused on improving the dewatering process in order to reduce subsequent costs of sludge management and transport. To achieve this goal, it is necessary to establish reliable indices that reflect the efficiency of sludge dewatering. However, the evaluation of sludge dewaterability is not an easy task due to the highly complex nature of sewage sludge and variations in solid-liquid separation methods. Most traditional dewatering indices fail to predict the maximum cake solids content achievable during full-scale dewatering. This paper reviews the difficulties in assessing sludge dewatering performance, and the main techniques used to evaluate dewatering performance are compared and discussed in detail. Finally, the paper suggests a new dewatering index, namely the modified centrifugal index, which is demonstrated to be an appropriate indicator for estimating the final cake solids content as well as simulating the prototype dewatering process.

The QSAR study of flavonoid-metal complexes scavenging rad OH free radical

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Bo-chu; Qian, Jun-zhen; Fan, Ying; Tan, Jun

2014-10-01

Flavonoid-metal complexes have antioxidant activities. However, quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSAR) of flavonoid-metal complexes and their antioxidant activities has still not been tackled. On the basis of 21 structures of flavonoid-metal complexes and their antioxidant activities for scavenging rad OH free radical, we optimised their structures using Gaussian 03 software package and we subsequently calculated and chose 18 quantum chemistry descriptors such as dipole, charge and energy. Then we chose several quantum chemistry descriptors that are very important to the IC50 of flavonoid-metal complexes for scavenging rad OH free radical through method of stepwise linear regression, Meanwhile we obtained 4 new variables through the principal component analysis. Finally, we built the QSAR models based on those important quantum chemistry descriptors and the 4 new variables as the independent variables and the IC50 as the dependent variable using an Artificial Neural Network (ANN), and we validated the two models using experimental data. These results show that the two models in this paper are reliable and predictable.

First principles Peierls-Boltzmann phonon thermal transport: A topical review

DOE PAGES

Lindsay, Lucas

2016-08-05

The advent of coupled thermal transport calculations with interatomic forces derived from density functional theory has ushered in a new era of fundamental microscopic insight into lattice thermal conductivity. Subsequently, significant new understanding of phonon transport behavior has been developed with these methods, and because they are parameter free and successfully benchmarked against a variety of systems, they also provide reliable predictions of thermal transport in systems for which little is known. This topical review will describe the foundation from which first principles Peierls-Boltzmann transport equation methods have been developed, and briefly describe important necessary ingredients for accurate calculations. Samplemore » highlights of reported work will be presented to illustrate the capabilities and challenges of these techniques, and to demonstrate the suite of tools available, with an emphasis on thermal transport in micro- and nano-scale systems. In conclusion, future challenges and opportunities will be discussed, drawing attention to prospects for methods development and applications.« less

Technique to Obtain a Predictable Aesthetic Result through Appropriate Placement of the Prosthesis/Soft Tissue Junction in the Edentulous Patient with a Gingival Smile.

PubMed

Demurashvili, Georgy; Davarpanah, Keyvan; Szmukler-Moncler, Serge; Davarpanah, Mithridade; Raux, Didier; Capelle-Ouadah, Nedjoua; Rajzbaum, Philippe

2015-10-01

Treating the edentulous patient with a gingival smile requires securing the prosthesis/soft tissue junction (PSTJ) under the upper lip. To present a simple method that helps achieve a predictable aesthetic result when alveoplasty of the anterior maxilla is needed to place implants apical to the presurgical position of the alveolar ridge. The maximum smile line of the patient is recorded and carved on a thin silicone bite impression as a soft tissue landmark. During the three-dimensional radiographic examination, the patient wears the silicone guide loaded with radiopaque markers. The NobelClinician® software is then used to bring the hard and soft tissue landmarks together in a single reading. Using the software, a line is drawn 5 mm apical to the smile line; it dictates the position of the crestal ridge to be reached following the alveoplasty. Subsequently, the simulated implant position and the simulated residual bone height following alveoplasty can be simultaneously evaluated on each transverse section. An alveoplasty of the anterior maxilla was performed as simulated on the software, and implants were placed accordingly. The PSTJ was always under the upper lip, even during maximum smile events. The aesthetic result was, therefore, fully satisfactory. This simple method permits the placement of the PSTJ under the upper lip with a predictable outcome; it ensures a reliable aesthetic result for the edentulous patient with a gingival smile. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Evaluation of canine adverse food reactions by patch testing with single proteins, single carbohydrates and commercial foods.

PubMed

Johansen, Cornelia; Mariani, Claire; Mueller, Ralf S

2017-10-01

Adverse food reaction (AFR) is an important differential diagnosis for the pruritic dog. It is usually diagnosed by feeding an elimination diet with a novel protein and carbohydrate source for eight weeks followed by subsequent food provocation. A previous study demonstrated that patch testing dogs with foods had a high sensitivity and negative predictability for selection of elimination diet ingredients. The aim of this study was to investigate patch testing with proteins, carbohydrates and dry commercial dog food in dogs to determine whether there was value in patch testing to aid the diagnosis of canine adverse food reaction. Twenty five privately owned dogs, with confirmed AFR, underwent provocation trials with selected food antigens and patch testing. For proteins, carbohydrates and dry dog food the sensitivity of patch testing was 100%, 70% and 22.2%, respectively; the negative predictive values of patch testing were 100%, 79% and 72%. The positive predictive values of patch testing for proteins and carbohydrates were 75% and 74%, respectively. This study confirmed that patch testing may be useful for the selection of a suitable protein source for an elimination diet in dogs with suspected AFR, but not as a diagnostic tool for canine AFR. Results for proteins are more reliable than for carbohydrates and the majority of positive patch test reactions were observed with raw protein. Patch testing with commercial dog food does not seem to be useful. © 2017 ESVD and ACVD.

Measurement versus prediction in the construction of patient-reported outcome questionnaires: can we have our cake and eat it?

PubMed

Smits, Niels; van der Ark, L Andries; Conijn, Judith M

2017-11-02

Two important goals when using questionnaires are (a) measurement: the questionnaire is constructed to assign numerical values that accurately represent the test taker's attribute, and (b) prediction: the questionnaire is constructed to give an accurate forecast of an external criterion. Construction methods aimed at measurement prescribe that items should be reliable. In practice, this leads to questionnaires with high inter-item correlations. By contrast, construction methods aimed at prediction typically prescribe that items have a high correlation with the criterion and low inter-item correlations. The latter approach has often been said to produce a paradox concerning the relation between reliability and validity [1-3], because it is often assumed that good measurement is a prerequisite of good prediction. To answer four questions: (1) Why are measurement-based methods suboptimal for questionnaires that are used for prediction? (2) How should one construct a questionnaire that is used for prediction? (3) Do questionnaire-construction methods that optimize measurement and prediction lead to the selection of different items in the questionnaire? (4) Is it possible to construct a questionnaire that can be used for both measurement and prediction? An empirical data set consisting of scores of 242 respondents on questionnaire items measuring mental health is used to select items by means of two methods: a method that optimizes the predictive value of the scale (i.e., forecast a clinical diagnosis), and a method that optimizes the reliability of the scale. We show that for the two scales different sets of items are selected and that a scale constructed to meet the one goal does not show optimal performance with reference to the other goal. The answers are as follows: (1) Because measurement-based methods tend to maximize inter-item correlations by which predictive validity reduces. (2) Through selecting items that correlate highly with the criterion and lowly with the remaining items. (3) Yes, these methods may lead to different item selections. (4) For a single questionnaire: Yes, but it is problematic because reliability cannot be estimated accurately. For a test battery: Yes, but it is very costly. Implications for the construction of patient-reported outcome questionnaires are discussed.

The associations of earlier trauma exposures and history of mental disorders with PTSD after subsequent traumas

PubMed Central

Kessler, Ronald C.; Aguilar-Gaxiola, Sergio; Alonso, Jordi; Bromet, Evelyn J.; Gureje, Oye; Karam, Elie G.; Koenen, Karestan C.; Lee, Sing; Liu, Howard; Pennell, Beth-Ellen; Petukhova, Maria V.; Sampson, Nancy A.; Shahly, Victoria L.; Stein, Dan J.; Atwoli, Lukoye; Borges, Guilherme; Bunting, Brendan; de Girolamo, Giovanni; Gluzman, Semyon; Haro, Josep Maria; Hinkov, Hristo; Kawakami, Norito; Kovess-Masfety, Viviane; Navarro-Mateu, Fernando; Posada-Villa, Jose; Scott, Kate M.; Shalev, Arieh Y.; Have, Margreet ten; Torres, Yolanda; Viana, Maria Carmen; Zaslavsky, Alan M.

2017-01-01

Although earlier trauma exposure is known to predict post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) after subsequent traumas, it is unclear if this association is limited to cases where the earlier trauma led to PTSD. Resolution of this uncertainty has important implications for research on pre-trauma vulnerability to PTSD. We examined this issue in the WHO World Mental Health (WMH) Surveys with 34,676 respondents who reported lifetime trauma exposure. One lifetime trauma was selected randomly for each respondent. DSM-IV PTSD due to that trauma was assessed. We reported in a previous paper that four earlier traumas involving interpersonal violence significantly predicted PTSD after subsequent random traumas (OR=1.3–2.5). We also assessed 14 lifetime DSM-IV mood, anxiety, disruptive behavior, and substance disorders prior to random traumas. We show in the current report that only prior anxiety disorders significantly predicted PTSD in a multivariate model (OR=1.5–4.3) and that these disorders interacted significantly with three of the earlier traumas (witnessing atrocities, physical violence victimization, rape). History of witnessing atrocities significantly predicted PTSD after subsequent random traumas only among respondents with prior PTSD (OR=5.6). Histories of physical violence victimization (OR=1.5) and rape after age 17 (OR=17.6) significantly predicted only among respondents with no history of prior anxiety disorders. Although only preliminary due to reliance on retrospective reports, these results suggest that history of anxiety disorders and history of a limited number of earlier traumas might usefully be targeted in future prospective studies as distinct foci of research on individual differences in vulnerability to PTSD after subsequent traumas. PMID:28924183

Combining empirical approaches and error modelling to enhance predictive uncertainty estimation in extrapolation for operational flood forecasting. Tests on flood events on the Loire basin, France.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berthet, Lionel; Marty, Renaud; Bourgin, François; Viatgé, Julie; Piotte, Olivier; Perrin, Charles

2017-04-01

An increasing number of operational flood forecasting centres assess the predictive uncertainty associated with their forecasts and communicate it to the end users. This information can match the end-users needs (i.e. prove to be useful for an efficient crisis management) only if it is reliable: reliability is therefore a key quality for operational flood forecasts. In 2015, the French flood forecasting national and regional services (Vigicrues network; www.vigicrues.gouv.fr) implemented a framework to compute quantitative discharge and water level forecasts and to assess the predictive uncertainty. Among the possible technical options to achieve this goal, a statistical analysis of past forecasting errors of deterministic models has been selected (QUOIQUE method, Bourgin, 2014). It is a data-based and non-parametric approach based on as few assumptions as possible about the forecasting error mathematical structure. In particular, a very simple assumption is made regarding the predictive uncertainty distributions for large events outside the range of the calibration data: the multiplicative error distribution is assumed to be constant, whatever the magnitude of the flood. Indeed, the predictive distributions may not be reliable in extrapolation. However, estimating the predictive uncertainty for these rare events is crucial when major floods are of concern. In order to improve the forecasts reliability for major floods, an attempt at combining the operational strength of the empirical statistical analysis and a simple error modelling is done. Since the heteroscedasticity of forecast errors can considerably weaken the predictive reliability for large floods, this error modelling is based on the log-sinh transformation which proved to reduce significantly the heteroscedasticity of the transformed error in a simulation context, even for flood peaks (Wang et al., 2012). Exploratory tests on some operational forecasts issued during the recent floods experienced in France (major spring floods in June 2016 on the Loire river tributaries and flash floods in fall 2016) will be shown and discussed. References Bourgin, F. (2014). How to assess the predictive uncertainty in hydrological modelling? An exploratory work on a large sample of watersheds, AgroParisTech Wang, Q. J., Shrestha, D. L., Robertson, D. E. and Pokhrel, P (2012). A log-sinh transformation for data normalization and variance stabilization. Water Resources Research, , W05514, doi:10.1029/2011WR010973

Cognitive models for panic disorder with agoraphobia: A study of disaggregated within-person effects.

PubMed

Hoffart, Asle

2016-09-01

The purpose of this study was to test 2 cognitive models of panic disorder with agoraphobia (PDA)-a catastrophic cognitions model and a low self-efficacy model-by examining the within-person effects of model-derived cognitive variables on subsequent anxiety symptoms. Participants were 46 PDA patients with agoraphobic avoidance of moderate to severe degree who were randomly allocated to 6 weeks of either cognitive therapy, based on the catastrophic cognitions model of PDA, or guided mastery (guided exposure) therapy, based on the self-efficacy model of PDA. Cognitions and anxiety were measured weekly over the course of treatment. The data were analyzed with mixed models, using person-mean centering to disaggregate within- and between-person effects. All of the studied variables changed in the expected way over the course of therapy. There was a within-person effect of physical fears, loss of control fears, social fears, and self-efficacy when alone on subsequent state anxiety. On the other hand, within-person changes in anxiety did not predict subsequent cognitions. Loss of control and social fears both predicted subsequent self-efficacy, whereas self-efficacy did not predict catastrophic cognitions. In a multipredictor analysis, within-person catastrophic cognitions still predicted subsequent anxiety, but self-efficacy when alone did not. Overall, the findings indicate that anxiety in PDA, at least in severe and long-standing cases, is driven by catastrophic cognitions. Thus, these cognitions seem to be useful therapeutic targets. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Testing the bi-dimensional effects of attitudes on behavioural intentions and subsequent behaviour.

PubMed

Elliott, Mark A; Brewster, Sarah E; Thomson, James A; Malcolm, Carly; Rasmussen, Susan

2015-11-01

Attitudes are typically treated as unidimensional predictors of both behavioural intentions and subsequent behaviour. On the basis of previous research showing that attitudes comprise two independent, positive and negative dimensions, we hypothesized that attitudes would be bi-dimensional predictors of both behavioural intentions and subsequent behaviour. We focused on health-risk behaviours. We therefore also hypothesized that the positive dimension of attitude (evaluations of positive behavioural outcomes) would better predict both behavioural intentions and subsequent behaviour than would the negative dimension, consistent with the positivity bias/offset principle. In Study 1 (cross sectional design), N = 109 university students completed questionnaire measures of their intentions to binge-drink and the positive and negative dimensions of attitude. Consistent with the hypotheses, both attitude dimensions independently predicted behavioural intentions and the positive dimension was a significantly better predictor than was the negative dimension. The same pattern of findings emerged in Study 2 (cross sectional design; N = 186 university students) when we predicted intentions to binge-drink, smoke and consume a high-fat diet. Similarly, in Study 3 (prospective design; N = 1,232 speed limit offenders), both the positive and negative dimensions of attitude predicted subsequent (6-month post-baseline) speeding behaviour on two different road types and the positive dimension was the better predictor. The implications for understanding the motivation of behaviour and the development of behaviour-change interventions are discussed. © 2014 The British Psychological Society.

Validity and reliability of clinical prediction rules used to screen for cervical spine injury in alert low-risk patients with blunt trauma to the neck: part 2. A systematic review from the Cervical Assessment and Diagnosis Research Evaluation (CADRE) Collaboration.

PubMed

Moser, N; Lemeunier, N; Southerst, D; Shearer, H; Murnaghan, K; Sutton, D; Côté, P

2018-06-01

To update findings of the 2000-2010 Bone and Joint Decade Task Force on Neck Pain and its Associated Disorders (Neck Pain Task Force) on the validity and reliability of clinical prediction rules used to screen for cervical spine injury in alert low-risk adult patients with blunt trauma to the neck. We searched four databases from 2005 to 2015. Pairs of independent reviewers critically appraised eligible studies using the modified QUADAS-2 and QAREL criteria. We synthesized low risk of bias studies following best evidence synthesis principles. We screened 679 citations; five had a low risk of bias and were included in our synthesis. The sensitivity of the Canadian C-spine rule ranged from 0.90 to 1.00 with negative predictive values ranging from 99 to 100%. Inter-rater reliability of the Canadian C-spine rule varied from k = 0.60 between nurses and physicians to k = 0.93 among paramedics. The inter-rater reliability of the Nexus Low-Risk Criteria was k = 0.53 between resident physicians and faculty physicians. Our review adds new evidence to the Neck Pain Task Force and supports the use of clinical prediction rules in emergency care settings to screen for cervical spine injury in alert low-risk adult patients with blunt trauma to the neck. The Canadian C-spine rule consistently demonstrated excellent sensitivity and negative predictive values. Our review, however, suggests that the reproducibility of the clinical predictions rules varies depending on the examiners level of training and experience.

Height prediction equations for even-aged upland oak stands

Treesearch

Donald E. Hilt; Martin E. Dale

1982-01-01

Forest growth models that use predicted tree diameters or diameter distributions require a reliable height-prediction model to obtain volume estimates because future height-diameter relationships will not necessarily be the same as the present height-diameter relationship. A total tree height prediction equation for even-aged upland oak stands is presented. Predicted...

Novel composites for wing and fuselage applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sobel, L. H.; Buttitta, C.; Suarez, J. A.

1995-01-01

Probabilistic predictions based on the IPACS code are presented for the material and structural response of unnotched and notched, IM6/3501-6 Gr/Ep laminates. Comparisons of predicted and measured modulus and strength distributions are given for unnotched unidirectional, cross-ply and quasi-isotropic laminates. The predicted modulus distributions were found to correlate well with the test results for all three unnotched laminates. Correlations of strength distributions for the unnotched laminates are judged good for the unidirectional laminate and fair for the cross-ply laminate, whereas the strength correlation for the quasi-isotropic laminate is judged poor because IPACS did not have a progressive failure capability at the time this work was performed. The report also presents probabilistic and structural reliability analysis predictions for the strain concentration factor (SCF) for an open-hole, quasi-isotropic laminate subjected to longitudinal tension. A special procedure was developed to adapt IPACS for the structural reliability analysis. The reliability results show the importance of identifying the most significant random variables upon which the SCF depends, and of having accurate scatter values for these variables.

Anticipatory versus reactive spatial attentional bias to threat.

PubMed

Gladwin, Thomas E; Möbius, Martin; McLoughlin, Shane; Tyndall, Ian

2018-05-10

Dot-probe or visual probe tasks (VPTs) are used extensively to measure attentional biases. A novel variant termed the cued VPT (cVPT) was developed to focus on the anticipatory component of attentional bias. This study aimed to establish an anticipatory attentional bias to threat using the cVPT and compare its split-half reliability with a typical dot-probe task. A total of 120 students performed the cVPT task and dot-probe tasks. Essentially, the cVPT uses cues that predict the location of pictorial threatening stimuli, but on trials on which probe stimuli are presented the pictures do not appear. Hence, actual presentation of emotional stimuli did not affect responses. The reliability of the cVPT was higher at most cue-stimulus intervals and was .56 overall. A clear anticipatory attentional bias was found. In conclusion, the cVPT may be of methodological and theoretical interest. Using visually neutral predictive cues may remove sources of noise that negatively impact reliability. Predictive cues are able to bias response selection, suggesting a role of predicted outcomes in automatic processes. © 2018 The British Psychological Society.

Short communication: Improving accuracy of predicting breeding values in Brazilian Holstein population by adding data from Nordic and French Holstein populations.

PubMed

Li, X; Lund, M S; Zhang, Q; Costa, C N; Ducrocq, V; Su, G

2016-06-01

The present study investigated the improvement of prediction reliabilities for 3 production traits in Brazilian Holsteins that had no genotype information by adding information from Nordic and French Holstein bulls that had genotypes. The estimated across-country genetic correlations (ranging from 0.604 to 0.726) indicated that an important genotype by environment interaction exists between Brazilian and Nordic (or Nordic and French) populations. Prediction reliabilities for Brazilian genotyped bulls were greatly increased by including data of Nordic and French bulls, and a 2-trait single-step genomic BLUP performed much better than the corresponding pedigree-based BLUP. However, only a minor improvement in prediction reliabilities was observed in nongenotyped Brazilian cows. The results indicate that although there is a large genotype by environment interaction, inclusion of a foreign reference population can improve accuracy of genetic evaluation for the Brazilian Holstein population. However, a Brazilian reference population is necessary to obtain a more accurate genomic evaluation. Copyright © 2016 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Robustness of neuroprosthetic decoding algorithms.

PubMed

Serruya, Mijail; Hatsopoulos, Nicholas; Fellows, Matthew; Paninski, Liam; Donoghue, John

2003-03-01

We assessed the ability of two algorithms to predict hand kinematics from neural activity as a function of the amount of data used to determine the algorithm parameters. Using chronically implanted intracortical arrays, single- and multineuron discharge was recorded during trained step tracking and slow continuous tracking tasks in macaque monkeys. The effect of increasing the amount of data used to build a neural decoding model on the ability of that model to predict hand kinematics accurately was examined. We evaluated how well a maximum-likelihood model classified discrete reaching directions and how well a linear filter model reconstructed continuous hand positions over time within and across days. For each of these two models we asked two questions: (1) How does classification performance change as the amount of data the model is built upon increases? (2) How does varying the time interval between the data used to build the model and the data used to test the model affect reconstruction? Less than 1 min of data for the discrete task (8 to 13 neurons) and less than 3 min (8 to 18 neurons) for the continuous task were required to build optimal models. Optimal performance was defined by a cost function we derived that reflects both the ability of the model to predict kinematics accurately and the cost of taking more time to build such models. For both the maximum-likelihood classifier and the linear filter model, increasing the duration between the time of building and testing the model within a day did not cause any significant trend of degradation or improvement in performance. Linear filters built on one day and tested on neural data on a subsequent day generated error-measure distributions that were not significantly different from those generated when the linear filters were tested on neural data from the initial day (p<0.05, Kolmogorov-Smirnov test). These data show that only a small amount of data from a limited number of cortical neurons appears to be necessary to construct robust models to predict kinematic parameters for the subsequent hours. Motor-control signals derived from neurons in motor cortex can be reliably acquired for use in neural prosthetic devices. Adequate decoding models can be built rapidly from small numbers of cells and maintained with daily calibration sessions.

Time dependent reliability model incorporating continuum damage mechanics for high-temperature ceramics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Duffy, Stephen F.; Gyekenyesi, John P.

1989-01-01

Presently there are many opportunities for the application of ceramic materials at elevated temperatures. In the near future ceramic materials are expected to supplant high temperature metal alloys in a number of applications. It thus becomes essential to develop a capability to predict the time-dependent response of these materials. The creep rupture phenomenon is discussed, and a time-dependent reliability model is outlined that integrates continuum damage mechanics principles and Weibull analysis. Several features of the model are presented in a qualitative fashion, including predictions of both reliability and hazard rate. In addition, a comparison of the continuum and the microstructural kinetic equations highlights a strong resemblance in the two approaches.

Predicting the Reliability of Ceramics Under Transient Loads and Temperatures With CARES/Life

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nemeth, Noel N.; Jadaan, Osama M.; Palfi, Tamas; Baker, Eric H.

2003-01-01

A methodology is shown for predicting the time-dependent reliability of ceramic components against catastrophic rupture when subjected to transient thermomechanical loads (including cyclic loads). The methodology takes into account the changes in material response that can occur with temperature or time (i.e., changing fatigue and Weibull parameters with temperature or time). This capability has been added to the NASA CARES/Life (Ceramic Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures/Life) code. The code has been modified to have the ability to interface with commercially available finite element analysis (FEA) codes executed for transient load histories. Examples are provided to demonstrate the features of the methodology as implemented in the CARES/Life program.

Reliability of the Melbourne assessment of unilateral upper limb function.

PubMed

Randall, M; Carlin, J B; Chondros, P; Reddihough, D

2001-11-01

This study examines the reliability of the Melbourne Assessment of Unilateral Upper Limb Function: a quantitative test of quality of movement in children with neurological impairment. The assessment was administered to 20 children aged from 5 to 16 years (mean age 9 years 10 months, SD 2 years 10 months) who had various types and degrees of cerebral palsy (CP). The performances of the 20 children during assessment were videotaped for subsequent scoring by 15 occupational therapists. Scores were analyzed for internal consistency of test items, inter- and intrarater reliability of scorings of the same videotapes, and test-retest reliability using repeat videotaping. Results revealed very high internal consistency of test items (alpha=0.96), moderate to high agreement both within and between raters for all test items (intraclass correlations of at least 0.7) apart from item 16 (hand to mouth and down), and high interrater reliability (0.95) and intrarater reliability (0.97) for total test scores. Test-retest results revealed moderate to high intrarater reliability for item totals (mean of 0.83 and 0.79) for each rater and high reliability for test totals (0.98 and 0.97). These findings indicate that the Melbourne Assessment of Unilateral Upper Limb Function is a reliable tool for measuring the quality of unilateral upper-limb movement in children with CP.

A Novel Tool for Evaluation of Mild Traumatic Brain Injury Patients in the Emergency Department: Does Robotic Assessment of Neuromotor Performance Following Injury Predict the Presence of Postconcussion Symptoms at Follow-up?

PubMed

Subbian, Vignesh; Ratcliff, Jonathan J; Korfhagen, Joseph J; Hart, Kimberly W; Meunier, Jason M; Shaw, George J; Lindsell, Christopher J; Beyette, Fred R

2016-04-01

Postconcussion symptoms (PCS) are a common complication of mild traumatic brain injury (TBI). Currently, there is no validated clinically available method to reliably predict at the time of injury who will subsequently develop PCS. The purpose of this study was to determine if PCS following mild TBI can be predicted during the initial presentation to an emergency department (ED) using a novel robotic-assisted assessment of neurologic function. All patients presenting to an urban ED with a chief complaint of head injury within the preceding 24 hours were screened for inclusion from March 2013 to April 2014. The enrollment criteria were as follows: 1) age of 18 years or greater, 2) ability and willingness to provide written informed consent, 3) blunt head trauma and clinical diagnosis of isolated mild TBI by the treating physician, and 4) blood alcohol level of <100 mg/dL. Eligible mild TBI patients were enrolled and their neuromotor function was assessed in the ED using a battery of five tests that cover a range of proprioceptive, visuomotor, visuospatial, and executive function performance metrics. At 3 weeks postinjury, participants were contacted via telephone to complete the Rivermead Post-Concussion Symptoms Questionnaire to assess the presence of significant PCS. A total of 66 mild TBI patients were enrolled in the study with 42 of them completing both the ED assessment and the follow-up; 40 patients were included in the analyses. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for the entire test battery was 0.72 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.54 to 0.90). The AUC for tests that primarily measure visuomotor and proprioceptive performance were 0.80 (95% CI = 0.65 to 0.95) and 0.71 (95% CI = 0.53 to 0.89), respectively. The robotic-assisted test battery has the ability to discriminate between subjects who developed PCS and those who did not. Additionally, poor visuomotor and proprioceptive performance were most strongly associated with subsequent PCS. © 2016 by the Society for Academic Emergency Medicine.

Force platform measurements as predictors of falls among older people - a review.

PubMed

Piirtola, Maarit; Era, Pertti

2006-01-01

Poor postural balance is one of the major risk factors for falling. A great number of reports have analyzed the risk factors and predictors of falls but the results have for the most part been unclear and partly contradictory. Objective data on these matters are thus urgently needed. The force platform technique has widely been used as a tool to assess balance. However, the ability of force platform measures to predict falls remains unknown. The purpose of this systematic review was to extract and critically review the findings of prospective studies where force platform measurements have been used as predictors of falls among elderly populations. The study was done as a systematic literature review. PubMed, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, and CINAHL databases from 1950 to April 2005 were used. The review includes prospective follow-up studies using the force platform as a tool to measure postural balance. Nine original prospective studies were included in the final analyses. In five studies fall-related outcomes were associated with some force platform measures and in the remaining four studies associations were not found. For the various parameters derived on the basis of the force platform data, the mean speed of the mediolateral (ML) movement of the center of pressure (COP) during normal standing with the eyes open and closed, the mean amplitude of the ML movement of the COP with the eyes open and closed, and the root-mean-square value of the ML displacement of COP were the indicators that showed significant associations with future falls. Measures related to dynamic posturography (moving platforms) were not predictive of falls. Despite a wide search only a few prospective follow-up studies using the force platform technique to measure postural balance and a reliable registration of subsequent falls were found. The results suggest that certain aspects of force platform data may have predictive value for subsequent falls, especially various indicators of the lateral control of posture. However, the small number of studies available makes it difficult to draw definitive conclusions. Copyright 2006 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Failure mode analysis to predict product reliability.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zemanick, P. P.

1972-01-01

The failure mode analysis (FMA) is described as a design tool to predict and improve product reliability. The objectives of the failure mode analysis are presented as they influence component design, configuration selection, the product test program, the quality assurance plan, and engineering analysis priorities. The detailed mechanics of performing a failure mode analysis are discussed, including one suggested format. Some practical difficulties of implementation are indicated, drawn from experience with preparing FMAs on the nuclear rocket engine program.

Discrete Address Beacon System (DABS) Software System Reliability Modeling and Prediction.

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-06-01

Service ( ATARS ) module because of its interim status. Reliability prediction models for software modules were derived and then verified by matching...System (A’iCR3BS) and thus can be introduced gradually and economically without ma jor olper- ational or procedural change. Since DABS uses monopulse...lineanaly- sis tools or are ured during maintenance or pre-initialization were not modeled because they are not part of the mission software. The ATARS

A Modified Goodness-of-Fit Test for the Lognormal Distribution with Unknown Scale and Location Parameters.

DTIC Science & Technology

1986-12-01

Force and other branches of the military are placing an increased emphasis on system reliablity and maintainability. In studying current systems ...used in the research of proposed systems , by predicting MTTF and MTTR of the new parts and thus, predict the reliability of those parts. The statistics...effectiveness of new systems . Aitchison’s book on the lognormal distribution, printed and used by Cambridge University, highlighted the distributions

Global brain dynamics during social exclusion predict subsequent behavioral conformity

PubMed Central

Wasylyshyn, Nick; Hemenway Falk, Brett; Garcia, Javier O; Cascio, Christopher N; O’Donnell, Matthew Brook; Bingham, C Raymond; Simons-Morton, Bruce; Vettel, Jean M; Falk, Emily B

2018-01-01

Abstract Individuals react differently to social experiences; for example, people who are more sensitive to negative social experiences, such as being excluded, may be more likely to adapt their behavior to fit in with others. We examined whether functional brain connectivity during social exclusion in the fMRI scanner can be used to predict subsequent conformity to peer norms. Adolescent males (n = 57) completed a two-part study on teen driving risk: a social exclusion task (Cyberball) during an fMRI session and a subsequent driving simulator session in which they drove alone and in the presence of a peer who expressed risk-averse or risk-accepting driving norms. We computed the difference in functional connectivity between social exclusion and social inclusion from each node in the brain to nodes in two brain networks, one previously associated with mentalizing (medial prefrontal cortex, temporoparietal junction, precuneus, temporal poles) and another with social pain (dorsal anterior cingulate cortex, anterior insula). Using predictive modeling, this measure of global connectivity during exclusion predicted the extent of conformity to peer pressure during driving in the subsequent experimental session. These findings extend our understanding of how global neural dynamics guide social behavior, revealing functional network activity that captures individual differences. PMID:29529310

Syntactic Predictability in the Recognition of Carefully and Casually Produced Speech

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Viebahn, Malte C.; Ernestus, Mirjam; McQueen, James M.

2015-01-01

The present study investigated whether the recognition of spoken words is influenced by how predictable they are given their syntactic context and whether listeners assign more weight to syntactic predictability when acoustic-phonetic information is less reliable. Syntactic predictability was manipulated by varying the word order of past…

Reliability of self-reported childhood physical abuse by adults and factors predictive of inconsistent reporting.

PubMed

McKinney, Christy M; Harris, T Robert; Caetano, Raul

2009-01-01

Little is known about the reliability of self-reported child physical abuse (CPA) or CPA reporting practices. We estimated reliability and prevalence of self-reported CPA and identified factors predictive of inconsistent CPA reporting among 2,256 participants using surveys administered in 1995 and 2000. Reliability of CPA was fair to moderate (kappa = 0.41). Using a positive report from either survey, the prevalence of moderate (61.8%) and severe (12.0%) CPA was higher than at either survey alone. Compared to consistent reporters of having experienced CPA, inconsistent reporters were less likely to be > or = 30 years old (vs. 18-29) or Black (vs. White) and more likely to have < 12 years of education (vs. 12), have no alcohol-related problems (vs. having problems), or report one type (vs. > or = 2) of CPA. These findings may assist researchers conducting and interpreting studies of CPA.

[Study of the relationship between human quality and reliability].

PubMed

Long, S; Wang, C; Wang, L i; Yuan, J; Liu, H; Jiao, X

1997-02-01

To clarify the relationship between human quality and reliability, 1925 experiments in 20 subjects were carried out to study the relationship between disposition character, digital memory, graphic memory, multi-reaction time and education level and simulated aircraft operation. Meanwhile, effects of task difficulty and enviromental factor on human reliability were also studied. The results showed that human quality can be predicted and evaluated through experimental methods. The better the human quality, the higher the human reliability.

Alberta infant motor scale: reliability and validity when used on preterm infants in Taiwan.

PubMed

Jeng, S F; Yau, K I; Chen, L C; Hsiao, S F

2000-02-01

The goal of this study was to examine the reliability and validity of measurements obtained with the Alberta Infant Motor Scale (AIMS) for evaluation of preterm infants in Taiwan. Two independent groups of preterm infants were used to investigate the reliability (n=45) and validity (n=41) for the AIMS. In the reliability study, the AIMS was administered to the infants by a physical therapist, and infant performance was videotaped. The performance was then rescored by the same therapist and by 2 other therapists to examine the intrarater and interrater reliability. In the validity study, the AIMS and the Bayley Motor Scale were administered to the infants at 6 and 12 months of age to examine criterion-related validity. Intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs) for intrarater and interrater reliability of measurements obtained with the AIMS were high (ICC=.97-.99). The AIMS scores correlated with the Bayley Motor Scale scores at 6 and 12 months (r=.78 and.90), although the AIMS scores at 6 months were only moderately predictive of the motor function at 12 months (r=.56). The results suggest that measurements obtained with the AIMS have acceptable reliability and concurrent validity but limited predictive value for evaluating preterm Taiwanese infants.

Reliability-Based Life Assessment of Stirling Convertor Heater Head

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shah, Ashwin R.; Halford, Gary R.; Korovaichuk, Igor

2004-01-01

Onboard radioisotope power systems being developed and planned for NASA's deep-space missions require reliable design lifetimes of up to 14 yr. The structurally critical heater head of the high-efficiency Stirling power convertor has undergone extensive computational analysis of operating temperatures, stresses, and creep resistance of the thin-walled Inconel 718 bill of material. A preliminary assessment of the effect of uncertainties in the material behavior was also performed. Creep failure resistance of the thin-walled heater head could show variation due to small deviations in the manufactured thickness and in uncertainties in operating temperature and pressure. Durability prediction and reliability of the heater head are affected by these deviations from nominal design conditions. Therefore, it is important to include the effects of these uncertainties in predicting the probability of survival of the heater head under mission loads. Furthermore, it may be possible for the heater head to experience rare incidences of small temperature excursions of short duration. These rare incidences would affect the creep strain rate and, therefore, the life. This paper addresses the effects of such rare incidences on the reliability. In addition, the sensitivities of variables affecting the reliability are quantified, and guidelines developed to improve the reliability are outlined. Heater head reliability is being quantified with data from NASA Glenn Research Center's accelerated benchmark testing program.

Establishing the validity and reliability of the Project Talent Personality Inventory

PubMed Central

Pozzebon, Julie; Damian, Rodica I.; Hill, Patrick L.; Lin, Yuchen; Lapham, Susan; Roberts, Brent W.

2013-01-01

Project Talent is a national longitudinal study that started in 1960. The original sample included over 440,000 students, which amounted to a 5% representative sample of high school students across the United States. Previous research has not yet established the validity and reliability of the personality measure used in this study, that is, the Project Talent Personality Inventory (PTPI). Given the potential interest and use of the PTPI in forthcoming research, the goals of the present paper were to establish (a) the construct and predictive validity and (b) the internal consistency and test-retest reliability of the PTPI. This information will be valuable to researchers who might be interested in using the PTPI to predict life course outcomes, such as mortality, occupational success, relationship success, and health. Study 1 found that the 10 sub-scales of the PTPI showed good internal consistency reliability, as well as good construct and predictive validity. With the use of several modern personality measures, we showed how the 10 PTPI scales can be mapped onto the Big Five personality traits, and we examined their relations with health, well-being, and life satisfaction outcomes. Study 2 found that the 10 PTPI scales showed good test-retest reliability. Together, these findings allow researchers to better understand and use the PTPI scales, as they are available in Project Talent. PMID:24399984

Late-Life Depressive Symptoms and Lifetime History of Major Depression: Cognitive Deficits are Largely Due to Incipient Dementia rather than Depression.

PubMed

Heser, Kathrin; Bleckwenn, Markus; Wiese, Birgitt; Mamone, Silke; Riedel-Heller, Steffi G; Stein, Janine; Lühmann, Dagmar; Posselt, Tina; Fuchs, Angela; Pentzek, Michael; Weyerer, Siegfried; Werle, Jochen; Weeg, Dagmar; Bickel, Horst; Brettschneider, Christian; König, Hans-Helmut; Maier, Wolfgang; Scherer, Martin; Wagner, Michael

2016-08-01

Late-life depression is frequently accompanied by cognitive impairments. Whether these impairments indicate a prodromal state of dementia, or are a symptomatic expression of depression per se is not well-studied. In a cohort of very old initially non-demented primary care patients (n = 2,709, mean age = 81.1 y), cognitive performance was compared between groups of participants with or without elevated depressive symptoms and with or without subsequent dementia using ANCOVA (adjusted for age, sex, and education). Logistic regression analyses were computed to predict subsequent dementia over up to six years of follow-up. The same analytical approach was performed for lifetime major depression. Participants with elevated depressive symptoms without subsequent dementia showed only small to medium cognitive deficits. In contrast, participants with depressive symptoms with subsequent dementia showed medium to very large cognitive deficits. In adjusted logistic regression models, learning and memory deficits predicted the risk for subsequent dementia in participants with depressive symptoms. Participants with a lifetime history of major depression without subsequent dementia showed no cognitive deficits. However, in adjusted logistic regression models, learning and orientation deficits predicted the risk for subsequent dementia also in participants with lifetime major depression. Marked cognitive impairments in old age depression should not be dismissed as "depressive pseudodementia", but require clinical attention as a possible sign of incipient dementia. Non-depressed elderly with a lifetime history of major depression, who remained free of dementia during follow-up, had largely normal cognitive performance.

Prediction of Process-Induced Distortions in L-Shaped Composite Profiles Using Path-Dependent Constitutive Law

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ding, Anxin; Li, Shuxin; Wang, Jihui; Ni, Aiqing; Sun, Liangliang; Chang, Lei

2016-10-01

In this paper, the corner spring-in angles of AS4/8552 L-shaped composite profiles with different thicknesses are predicted using path-dependent constitutive law with the consideration of material properties variation due to phase change during curing. The prediction accuracy mainly depends on the properties in the rubbery and glassy states obtained by homogenization method rather than experimental measurements. Both analytical and finite element (FE) homogenization methods are applied to predict the overall properties of AS4/8552 composite. The effect of fiber volume fraction on the properties is investigated for both rubbery and glassy states using both methods. And the predicted results are compared with experimental measurements for the glassy state. Good agreement is achieved between the predicted results and available experimental data, showing the reliability of the homogenization method. Furthermore, the corner spring-in angles of L-shaped composite profiles are measured experimentally and the reliability of path-dependent constitutive law is validated as well as the properties prediction by FE homogenization method.

Adaptive vehicle motion estimation and prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Liang; Thorpe, Chuck E.

1999-01-01

Accurate motion estimation and reliable maneuver prediction enable an automated car to react quickly and correctly to the rapid maneuvers of the other vehicles, and so allow safe and efficient navigation. In this paper, we present a car tracking system which provides motion estimation, maneuver prediction and detection of the tracked car. The three strategies employed - adaptive motion modeling, adaptive data sampling, and adaptive model switching probabilities - result in an adaptive interacting multiple model algorithm (AIMM). The experimental results on simulated and real data demonstrate that our tracking system is reliable, flexible, and robust. The adaptive tracking makes the system intelligent and useful in various autonomous driving tasks.

Reliability of didactic grades to predict practical skills in an undergraduate dental college in Saudi Arabia.

PubMed

Zawawi, Khalid H; Afify, Ahmed R; Yousef, Mohammed K; Othman, Hisham I; Al-Dharrab, Ayman A

2015-01-01

This longitudinal study was aimed to investigate the association between didactic grades and practical skills for dental students and whether didactic grades can reliability predict the dental students' practical performance. Didactic and practical grades for graduates from the Faculty of Dentistry, King Abdulaziz University, between the years 2009 and 2011 were collected. Four courses were selected: Dental Anatomy, Operative Dentistry, Prosthodontics, and Orthodontics. Pearson product-moment correlation analyses between didactic and practical scores were conducted. There was only a significant correlation between didactic and practical scores for the Dental Anatomy course (P<0.001). There was also a significant correlation between all four subjects in the didactic scores (P<0.001). Only the scores of male students showed a significant correlation in the Operative Dentistry course (P<0.001). There were no correlations between Orthodontic grades. Moreover, a poor degree of reliability was found between didactic and practical scores for all subjects. Based on the findings of this study, the relationship between didactic grades and practical performance is course specific. Didactic grades do not reliably predict the students' practical skills. Measuring practical performances should be independent from didactic grading.

Reliability of didactic grades to predict practical skills in an undergraduate dental college in Saudi Arabia

PubMed Central

Zawawi, Khalid H; Afify, Ahmed R; Yousef, Mohammed K; Othman, Hisham I; Al-Dharrab, Ayman A

2015-01-01

Objectives This longitudinal study was aimed to investigate the association between didactic grades and practical skills for dental students and whether didactic grades can reliability predict the dental students’ practical performance. Materials and methods Didactic and practical grades for graduates from the Faculty of Dentistry, King Abdulaziz University, between the years 2009 and 2011 were collected. Four courses were selected: Dental Anatomy, Operative Dentistry, Prosthodontics, and Orthodontics. Pearson product-moment correlation analyses between didactic and practical scores were conducted. Results There was only a significant correlation between didactic and practical scores for the Dental Anatomy course (P<0.001). There was also a significant correlation between all four subjects in the didactic scores (P<0.001). Only the scores of male students showed a significant correlation in the Operative Dentistry course (P<0.001). There were no correlations between Orthodontic grades. Moreover, a poor degree of reliability was found between didactic and practical scores for all subjects. Conclusion Based on the findings of this study, the relationship between didactic grades and practical performance is course specific. Didactic grades do not reliably predict the students’ practical skills. Measuring practical performances should be independent from didactic grading. PMID:25878519

Probabilistic Prediction of Lifetimes of Ceramic Parts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nemeth, Noel N.; Gyekenyesi, John P.; Jadaan, Osama M.; Palfi, Tamas; Powers, Lynn; Reh, Stefan; Baker, Eric H.

2006-01-01

ANSYS/CARES/PDS is a software system that combines the ANSYS Probabilistic Design System (PDS) software with a modified version of the Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures Life (CARES/Life) Version 6.0 software. [A prior version of CARES/Life was reported in Program for Evaluation of Reliability of Ceramic Parts (LEW-16018), NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 20, No. 3 (March 1996), page 28.] CARES/Life models effects of stochastic strength, slow crack growth, and stress distribution on the overall reliability of a ceramic component. The essence of the enhancement in CARES/Life 6.0 is the capability to predict the probability of failure using results from transient finite-element analysis. ANSYS PDS models the effects of uncertainty in material properties, dimensions, and loading on the stress distribution and deformation. ANSYS/CARES/PDS accounts for the effects of probabilistic strength, probabilistic loads, probabilistic material properties, and probabilistic tolerances on the lifetime and reliability of the component. Even failure probability becomes a stochastic quantity that can be tracked as a response variable. ANSYS/CARES/PDS enables tracking of all stochastic quantities in the design space, thereby enabling more precise probabilistic prediction of lifetimes of ceramic components.

Using Dynamic Risk and Protective Factors to Predict Inpatient Aggression: Reliability and Validity of START Assessments

PubMed Central

Desmarais, Sarah L.; Nicholls, Tonia L.; Wilson, Catherine M.; Brink, Johann

2012-01-01

The Short-Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability (START) is a relatively new structured professional judgment guide for the assessment and management of short-term risks associated with mental, substance use, and personality disorders. The scheme may be distinguished from other violence risk instruments because of its inclusion of 20 dynamic factors that are rated in terms of both vulnerability and strength. This study examined the reliability and validity of START assessments in predicting inpatient aggression. Research assistants completed START assessments for 120 male forensic psychiatric patients through review of hospital files. They additionally completed Historical-Clinical-Risk Management – 20 (HCR-20) and the Hare Psychopathy Checklist: Screening Version (PCL:SV) assessments. Outcome data was coded from hospital files for a 12-month follow-up period using the Overt Aggression Scale (OAS). START assessments evidenced excellent interrater reliability and demonstrated both predictive and incremental validity over the HCR-20 Historical subscale scores and PCL:SV total scores. Overall, results support the reliability and validity of START assessments, and use of the structured professional judgment approach more broadly, as well as the value of using dynamic risk and protective factors to assess violence risk. PMID:22250595

Rumination, anxiety, depressive symptoms and subsequent depression in adolescents at risk for psychopathology: a longitudinal cohort study.

PubMed

Wilkinson, Paul O; Croudace, Tim J; Goodyer, Ian M

2013-10-08

A ruminative style of responding to low mood is associated with subsequent high depressive symptoms and depressive disorder in children, adolescents and adults. Scores on self-report rumination scales correlate strongly with scores on anxiety and depression symptom scales. This may confound any associations between rumination and subsequent depression. Our sample comprised 658 healthy adolescents at elevated risk for psychopathology. This study applied ordinal item (non-linear) factor analysis to pooled items from three self-report questionnaires to explore whether there were separate, but correlated, constructs of rumination, depression and anxiety. It then tested whether rumination independently predicted depressive disorder and depressive symptoms over the subsequent 12 months, after adjusting for confounding variables. We identified a single rumination factor, which was correlated with factors representing cognitive symptoms of depression, somatic symptoms of depression and anxiety symptoms; and one factor representing adaptive responses to low mood. Elevated rumination scores predicted onset of depressive disorders over the subsequent year (p = 0.035), and levels of depressive symptoms 12 months later (p < 0.0005), after adjustment for prior levels of depressive and anxiety symptoms. High rumination predicts onset of depressive disorder in healthy adolescents. Therapy that reduces rumination and increases distraction/problem-solving may reduce onset and relapse rates of depression.

Predicting the Individual Risk of Acute Severe Colitis at Diagnosis.

PubMed

Cesarini, Monica; Collins, Gary S; Rönnblom, Anders; Santos, Antonieta; Wang, Lai Mun; Sjöberg, Daniel; Parkes, Miles; Keshav, Satish; Travis, Simon P L

2017-03-01

Acute severe colitis [ASC] is associated with major morbidity. We aimed to develop and externally validate an index that predicted ASC within 3 years of diagnosis. The development cohort included patients aged 16-89 years, diagnosed with ulcerative colitis [UC] in Oxford and followed for 3 years. Primary outcome was hospitalization for ASC, excluding patients admitted within 1 month of diagnosis. Multivariable logistic regression examined the adjusted association of seven risk factors with ASC. Backwards elimination produced a parsimonious model that was simplified to create an easy-to-use index. External validation occurred in separate cohorts from Cambridge, UK, and Uppsala, Sweden. The development cohort [Oxford] included 34/111 patients who developed ASC within a median 14 months [range 1-29]. The final model applied the sum of 1 point each for extensive disease, C-reactive protein [CRP] > 10mg/l, or haemoglobin < 12g/dl F or < 14g/dl M at diagnosis, to give a score from 0/3 to 3/3. This predicted a 70% risk of developing ASC within 3 years [score 3/3]. Validation cohorts included different proportions with ASC [Cambridge = 25/96; Uppsala = 18/298]. Of those scoring 3/3 at diagnosis, 18/18 [Cambridge] and 12/13 [Uppsala] subsequently developed ASC. Discriminant ability [c-index, where 1.0 = perfect discrimination] was 0.81 [Oxford], 0.95 [Cambridge], 0.97 [Uppsala]. Internal validation using bootstrapping showed good calibration, with similar predicted risk across all cohorts. A nomogram predicted individual risk. An index applied at diagnosis reliably predicts the risk of ASC within 3 years in different populations. Patients with a score 3/3 at diagnosis may merit early immunomodulator therapy. Copyright © 2016 European Crohn’s and Colitis Organisation (ECCO). Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com

Using multivariate regression modeling for sampling and predicting chemical characteristics of mixed waste in old landfills.

PubMed

Brandstätter, Christian; Laner, David; Prantl, Roman; Fellner, Johann

2014-12-01

Municipal solid waste landfills pose a threat on environment and human health, especially old landfills which lack facilities for collection and treatment of landfill gas and leachate. Consequently, missing information about emission flows prevent site-specific environmental risk assessments. To overcome this gap, the combination of waste sampling and analysis with statistical modeling is one option for estimating present and future emission potentials. Optimizing the tradeoff between investigation costs and reliable results requires knowledge about both: the number of samples to be taken and variables to be analyzed. This article aims to identify the optimized number of waste samples and variables in order to predict a larger set of variables. Therefore, we introduce a multivariate linear regression model and tested the applicability by usage of two case studies. Landfill A was used to set up and calibrate the model based on 50 waste samples and twelve variables. The calibrated model was applied to Landfill B including 36 waste samples and twelve variables with four predictor variables. The case study results are twofold: first, the reliable and accurate prediction of the twelve variables can be achieved with the knowledge of four predictor variables (Loi, EC, pH and Cl). For the second Landfill B, only ten full measurements would be needed for a reliable prediction of most response variables. The four predictor variables would exhibit comparably low analytical costs in comparison to the full set of measurements. This cost reduction could be used to increase the number of samples yielding an improved understanding of the spatial waste heterogeneity in landfills. Concluding, the future application of the developed model potentially improves the reliability of predicted emission potentials. The model could become a standard screening tool for old landfills if its applicability and reliability would be tested in additional case studies. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predicting Job Performance for the Visually Impaired: Validity of the Fine Finger Dexterity Work Task.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Giesen, J. Martin; And Others

The study was designed to determine the reliability and criterion validity of a psychomotor performance test (the Fine Finger Dexterity Work Task Unit) with 40 partially or totally blind adults. Reliability was established by using the test-retest method. A supervisory rating was developed and the reliability established by using the split-half…

A System for Integrated Reliability and Safety Analyses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kostiuk, Peter; Shapiro, Gerald; Hanson, Dave; Kolitz, Stephan; Leong, Frank; Rosch, Gene; Coumeri, Marc; Scheidler, Peter, Jr.; Bonesteel, Charles

1999-01-01

We present an integrated reliability and aviation safety analysis tool. The reliability models for selected infrastructure components of the air traffic control system are described. The results of this model are used to evaluate the likelihood of seeing outcomes predicted by simulations with failures injected. We discuss the design of the simulation model, and the user interface to the integrated toolset.

Reliability and concurrent validity of the computer workstation checklist.

PubMed

Baker, Nancy A; Livengood, Heather; Jacobs, Karen

2013-01-01

Self-report checklists are used to assess computer workstation set up, typically by workers not trained in ergonomic assessment or checklist interpretation.Though many checklists exist, few have been evaluated for reliability and validity. This study examined reliability and validity of the Computer Workstation Checklist (CWC) to identify mismatches between workers' self-reported workstation problems. The CWC was completed at baseline and at 1 month to establish reliability. Validity was determined with CWC baseline data compared to an onsite workstation evaluation conducted by an expert in computer workstation assessment. Reliability ranged from fair to near perfect (prevalence-adjusted bias-adjusted kappa, 0.38-0.93); items with the strongest agreement were related to the input device, monitor, computer table, and document holder. The CWC had greater specificity (11 of 16 items) than sensitivity (3 of 16 items). The positive predictive value was greater than the negative predictive value for all questions. The CWC has strong reliability. Sensitivity and specificity suggested workers often indicated no problems with workstation setup when problems existed. The evidence suggests that while the CWC may not be valid when used alone, it may be a suitable adjunct to an ergonomic assessment completed by professionals.

Reliability, validity and minimal detectable change of computerized respiratory sounds in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

PubMed

Oliveira, Ana; Lage, Susan; Rodrigues, João; Marques, Alda

2017-11-17

Computerized respiratory sounds (CRS) are closely related to the movement of air within the tracheobronchial tree and are promising outcome measures in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). However, CRS measurement properties have been poorly tested. The aim of this study was to assess the reliability, validity and the minimal detectable changes (MDC) of CRS in patients with stable COPD. Fifty patients (36♂, 67.26 ± 9.31y, FEV 1 49.52 ± 19.67%predicted) were enrolled. CRS were recorded simultaneously at seven anatomic locations (trachea; right and left anterior, lateral and posterior chest). The number of crackles, wheeze occupation rate, median frequency (F50) and maximum intensity (Imax) were processed using validated algorithms. Within-day and between-days reliability, criterion and construct validity, validity to predict exacerbations and MDC were established. CRS presented moderate-to-excellent within-day reliability (ICC 1,3  ≥ 0.51; P < .05) and moderate-to-good between-days reliability (ICC 1,2  ≥ 0.47; P < .05) for most locations. Negligible-to-moderate correlations with FEV 1 %predicted were found (-0.53 < r s  < -0.28; P < .05), and the inspiratory number of crackles were the best discriminator between mild-to-moderate and severe-to-very severe airflow limitations (area under the curve >0.78). CRS correlated poorly with patient-reported outcomes (r s  < 0.48; P < .05) and did not predict exacerbations. Inspiratory number of crackles at posterior right chest, inspiratory F50 at trachea and anterior left chest and expiratory Imax at anterior right chest were simultaneously reliable and valid, and their MDC were 2.41, 55.27, 29.55 and 3.98, respectively. CRS are reliable and valid. Their use, integrated with other clinical and patient-reported measures, may fill the gap of assessing small airways and contribute toward a patient's comprehensive evaluation. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Remembered or Forgotten?—An EEG-Based Computational Prediction Approach

PubMed Central

Sun, Xuyun; Qian, Cunle; Chen, Zhongqin; Wu, Zhaohui; Luo, Benyan; Pan, Gang

2016-01-01

Prediction of memory performance (remembered or forgotten) has various potential applications not only for knowledge learning but also for disease diagnosis. Recently, subsequent memory effects (SMEs)—the statistical differences in electroencephalography (EEG) signals before or during learning between subsequently remembered and forgotten events—have been found. This finding indicates that EEG signals convey the information relevant to memory performance. In this paper, based on SMEs we propose a computational approach to predict memory performance of an event from EEG signals. We devise a convolutional neural network for EEG, called ConvEEGNN, to predict subsequently remembered and forgotten events from EEG recorded during memory process. With the ConvEEGNN, prediction of memory performance can be achieved by integrating two main stages: feature extraction and classification. To verify the proposed approach, we employ an auditory memory task to collect EEG signals from scalp electrodes. For ConvEEGNN, the average prediction accuracy was 72.07% by using EEG data from pre-stimulus and during-stimulus periods, outperforming other approaches. It was observed that signals from pre-stimulus period and those from during-stimulus period had comparable contributions to memory performance. Furthermore, the connection weights of ConvEEGNN network can reveal prominent channels, which are consistent with the distribution of SME studied previously. PMID:27973531

Power and energy dissipation in subsequent return strokes as predicted by a new return stroke model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cooray, Vernon

1991-01-01

Recently, Cooray introduced a new return stroke model which is capable of predicting the temporal behavior of the return stroke current and the return stroke velocity as a function of the height along the return stroke channel. The authors employed this model to calculate the power and energy dissipation in subsequent return strokes. The results of these calculations are presented here. It was concluded that a large fraction of the total energy available for the dart leader-subsequent stroke process is dissipated in the dart leader stage. The peak power per unit length dissipated in a subsequent stroke channel element decreases with increasing height of that channel element from ground level. For a given channel element, the peak power dissipation increases with increasing current in that channel element. The peak electrical power dissipation in a typical subsequent return stroke is about 1.5 times 10(exp 11) W. The energy dissipation in a subsequent stroke increases with increasing current in the return stroke channel, and for a typical subsequent stroke, the energy dissipation per unit length is about 5.0 times 10(exp 3) J/m.

Catchment-scale groundwater recharge and vegetation water use efficiency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Troch, P. A. A.; Dwivedi, R.; Liu, T.; Meira, A.; Roy, T.; Valdés-Pineda, R.; Durcik, M.; Arciniega, S.; Brena-Naranjo, J. A.

2017-12-01

Precipitation undergoes a two-step partitioning when it falls on the land surface. At the land surface and in the shallow subsurface, rainfall or snowmelt can either runoff as infiltration/saturation excess or quick subsurface flow. The rest will be stored temporarily in the root zone. From the root zone, water can leave the catchment as evapotranspiration or percolate further and recharge deep storage (e.g. fractured bedrock aquifer). Quantifying the average amount of water that recharges deep storage and sustains low flows is extremely challenging, as we lack reliable methods to quantify this flux at the catchment scale. It was recently shown, however, that for semi-arid catchments in Mexico, an index of vegetation water use efficiency, i.e. the Horton index (HI), could predict deep storage dynamics. Here we test this finding using 247 MOPEX catchments across the conterminous US, including energy-limited catchments. Our results show that the observed HI is indeed a reliable predictor of deep storage dynamics in space and time. We further investigate whether the HI can also predict average recharge rates across the conterminous US. We find that the HI can reliably predict the average recharge rate, estimated from the 50th percentile flow of the flow duration curve. Our results compare favorably with estimates of average recharge rates from the US Geological Survey. Previous research has shown that HI can be reliably estimated based on aridity index, mean slope and mean elevation of a catchment (Voepel et al., 2011). We recalibrated Voepel's model and used it to predict the HI for our 247 catchments. We then used these predicted values of the HI to estimate average recharge rates for our catchments, and compared them with those estimated from observed HI. We find that the accuracies of our predictions based on observed and predicted HI are similar. This provides an estimation method of catchment-scale average recharge rates based on easily derived catchment characteristics, such as climate and topography, and free of discharge measurements.

Reliability Modeling of Microelectromechanical Systems Using Neural Networks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Perera. J. Sebastian

2000-01-01

Microelectromechanical systems (MEMS) are a broad and rapidly expanding field that is currently receiving a great deal of attention because of the potential to significantly improve the ability to sense, analyze, and control a variety of processes, such as heating and ventilation systems, automobiles, medicine, aeronautical flight, military surveillance, weather forecasting, and space exploration. MEMS are very small and are a blend of electrical and mechanical components, with electrical and mechanical systems on one chip. This research establishes reliability estimation and prediction for MEMS devices at the conceptual design phase using neural networks. At the conceptual design phase, before devices are built and tested, traditional methods of quantifying reliability are inadequate because the device is not in existence and cannot be tested to establish the reliability distributions. A novel approach using neural networks is created to predict the overall reliability of a MEMS device based on its components and each component's attributes. The methodology begins with collecting attribute data (fabrication process, physical specifications, operating environment, property characteristics, packaging, etc.) and reliability data for many types of microengines. The data are partitioned into training data (the majority) and validation data (the remainder). A neural network is applied to the training data (both attribute and reliability); the attributes become the system inputs and reliability data (cycles to failure), the system output. After the neural network is trained with sufficient data. the validation data are used to verify the neural networks provided accurate reliability estimates. Now, the reliability of a new proposed MEMS device can be estimated by using the appropriate trained neural networks developed in this work.

Reliability Estimation for Single-unit Ceramic Crown Restorations

PubMed Central

Lekesiz, H.

2014-01-01

The objective of this study was to evaluate the potential of a survival prediction method for the assessment of ceramic dental restorations. For this purpose, fast-fracture and fatigue reliabilities for 2 bilayer (metal ceramic alloy core veneered with fluorapatite leucite glass-ceramic, d.Sign/d.Sign-67, by Ivoclar; glass-infiltrated alumina core veneered with feldspathic porcelain, VM7/In-Ceram Alumina, by Vita) and 3 monolithic (leucite-reinforced glass-ceramic, Empress, and ProCAD, by Ivoclar; lithium-disilicate glass-ceramic, Empress 2, by Ivoclar) single posterior crown restorations were predicted, and fatigue predictions were compared with the long-term clinical data presented in the literature. Both perfectly bonded and completely debonded cases were analyzed for evaluation of the influence of the adhesive/restoration bonding quality on estimations. Material constants and stress distributions required for predictions were calculated from biaxial tests and finite element analysis, respectively. Based on the predictions, In-Ceram Alumina presents the best fast-fracture resistance, and ProCAD presents a comparable resistance for perfect bonding; however, ProCAD shows a significant reduction of resistance in case of complete debonding. Nevertheless, it is still better than Empress and comparable with Empress 2. In-Ceram Alumina and d.Sign have the highest long-term reliability, with almost 100% survivability even after 10 years. When compared with clinical failure rates reported in the literature, predictions show a promising match with clinical data, and this indicates the soundness of the settings used in the proposed predictions. PMID:25048249

Trial application of reliability technology to emergency diesel generators at the Trojan Nuclear Power Plant

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wong, S.M.; Boccio, J.L.; Karimian, S.

1986-01-01

In this paper, a trial application of reliability technology to the emergency diesel generator system at the Trojan Nuclear Power Plant is presented. An approach for formulating a reliability program plan for this system is being developed. The trial application has shown that a reliability program process, using risk- and reliability-based techniques, can be interwoven into current plant operational activities to help in controlling, analyzing, and predicting faults that can challenge safety systems. With the cooperation of the utility, Portland General Electric Co., this reliability program can eventually be implemented at Trojan to track its effectiveness.

Great apes are sensitive to prior reliability of an informant in a gaze following task.

PubMed

Schmid, Benjamin; Karg, Katja; Perner, Josef; Tomasello, Michael

2017-01-01

Social animals frequently rely on information from other individuals. This can be costly in case the other individual is mistaken or even deceptive. Human infants below 4 years of age show proficiency in their reliance on differently reliable informants. They can infer the reliability of an informant from few interactions and use that assessment in later interactions with the same informant in a different context. To explore whether great apes share that ability, in our study we confronted great apes with a reliable or unreliable informant in an object choice task, to see whether that would in a subsequent task affect their gaze following behaviour in response to the same informant. In our study, prior reliability of the informant and habituation during the gaze following task affected both great apes' automatic gaze following response and their more deliberate response of gaze following behind barriers. As habituation is very context specific, it is unlikely that habituation in the reliability task affected the gaze following task. Rather it seems that apes employ a reliability tracking strategy that results in a general avoidance of additional information from an unreliable informant.

Predicting Incursion of Plant Invaders into Kruger National Park, South Africa: The Interplay of General Drivers and Species-Specific Factors

PubMed Central

Jarošík, Vojtěch; Pyšek, Petr; Foxcroft, Llewellyn C.; Richardson, David M.; Rouget, Mathieu; MacFadyen, Sandra

2011-01-01

Background Overcoming boundaries is crucial for incursion of alien plant species and their successful naturalization and invasion within protected areas. Previous work showed that in Kruger National Park, South Africa, this process can be quantified and that factors determining the incursion of invasive species can be identified and predicted confidently. Here we explore the similarity between determinants of incursions identified by the general model based on a multispecies assemblage, and those identified by species-specific models. We analyzed the presence and absence of six invasive plant species in 1.0×1.5 km segments along the border of the park as a function of environmental characteristics from outside and inside the KNP boundary, using two data-mining techniques: classification trees and random forests. Principal Findings The occurrence of Ageratum houstonianum, Chromolaena odorata, Xanthium strumarium, Argemone ochroleuca, Opuntia stricta and Lantana camara can be reliably predicted based on landscape characteristics identified by the general multispecies model, namely water runoff from surrounding watersheds and road density in a 10 km radius. The presence of main rivers and species-specific combinations of vegetation types are reliable predictors from inside the park. Conclusions The predictors from the outside and inside of the park are complementary, and are approximately equally reliable for explaining the presence/absence of current invaders; those from the inside are, however, more reliable for predicting future invasions. Landscape characteristics determined as crucial predictors from outside the KNP serve as guidelines for management to enact proactive interventions to manipulate landscape features near the KNP to prevent further incursions. Predictors from the inside the KNP can be used reliably to identify high-risk areas to improve the cost-effectiveness of management, to locate invasive plants and target them for eradication. PMID:22194893

Predicting incursion of plant invaders into Kruger National Park, South Africa: the interplay of general drivers and species-specific factors.

PubMed

Jarošík, Vojtěch; Pyšek, Petr; Foxcroft, Llewellyn C; Richardson, David M; Rouget, Mathieu; MacFadyen, Sandra

2011-01-01

Overcoming boundaries is crucial for incursion of alien plant species and their successful naturalization and invasion within protected areas. Previous work showed that in Kruger National Park, South Africa, this process can be quantified and that factors determining the incursion of invasive species can be identified and predicted confidently. Here we explore the similarity between determinants of incursions identified by the general model based on a multispecies assemblage, and those identified by species-specific models. We analyzed the presence and absence of six invasive plant species in 1.0×1.5 km segments along the border of the park as a function of environmental characteristics from outside and inside the KNP boundary, using two data-mining techniques: classification trees and random forests. The occurrence of Ageratum houstonianum, Chromolaena odorata, Xanthium strumarium, Argemone ochroleuca, Opuntia stricta and Lantana camara can be reliably predicted based on landscape characteristics identified by the general multispecies model, namely water runoff from surrounding watersheds and road density in a 10 km radius. The presence of main rivers and species-specific combinations of vegetation types are reliable predictors from inside the park. The predictors from the outside and inside of the park are complementary, and are approximately equally reliable for explaining the presence/absence of current invaders; those from the inside are, however, more reliable for predicting future invasions. Landscape characteristics determined as crucial predictors from outside the KNP serve as guidelines for management to enact proactive interventions to manipulate landscape features near the KNP to prevent further incursions. Predictors from the inside the KNP can be used reliably to identify high-risk areas to improve the cost-effectiveness of management, to locate invasive plants and target them for eradication.

An evidence-based decision assistance model for predicting training outcome in juvenile guide dogs.

PubMed

Harvey, Naomi D; Craigon, Peter J; Blythe, Simon A; England, Gary C W; Asher, Lucy

2017-01-01

Working dog organisations, such as Guide Dogs, need to regularly assess the behaviour of the dogs they train. In this study we developed a questionnaire-style behaviour assessment completed by training supervisors of juvenile guide dogs aged 5, 8 and 12 months old (n = 1,401), and evaluated aspects of its reliability and validity. Specifically, internal reliability, temporal consistency, construct validity, predictive criterion validity (comparing against later training outcome) and concurrent criterion validity (comparing against a standardised behaviour test) were evaluated. Thirty-nine questions were sourced either from previously published literature or created to meet requirements identified via Guide Dogs staff surveys and staff feedback. Internal reliability analyses revealed seven reliable and interpretable trait scales named according to the questions within them as: Adaptability; Body Sensitivity; Distractibility; Excitability; General Anxiety; Trainability and Stair Anxiety. Intra-individual temporal consistency of the scale scores between 5-8, 8-12 and 5-12 months was high. All scales excepting Body Sensitivity showed some degree of concurrent criterion validity. Predictive criterion validity was supported for all seven scales, since associations were found with training outcome, at at-least one age. Thresholds of z-scores on the scales were identified that were able to distinguish later training outcome by identifying 8.4% of all dogs withdrawn for behaviour and 8.5% of all qualified dogs, with 84% and 85% specificity. The questionnaire assessment was reliable and could detect traits that are consistent within individuals over time, despite juvenile dogs undergoing development during the study period. By applying thresholds to scores produced from the questionnaire this assessment could prove to be a highly valuable decision-making tool for Guide Dogs. This is the first questionnaire-style assessment of juvenile dogs that has shown value in predicting the training outcome of individual working dogs.

Comparison of Different Risk Perception Measures in Predicting Seasonal Influenza Vaccination among Healthy Chinese Adults in Hong Kong: A Prospective Longitudinal Study

PubMed Central

Liao, Qiuyan; Wong, Wing Sze; Fielding, Richard

2013-01-01

Background Risk perception is a reported predictor of vaccination uptake, but which measures of risk perception best predict influenza vaccination uptake remain unclear. Methodology During the main influenza seasons (between January and March) of 2009 (Wave 1) and 2010 (Wave 2),505 Chinese students and employees from a Hong Kong university completed an online survey. Multivariate logistic regression models were conducted to assess how well different risk perceptions measures in Wave 1 predicted vaccination uptake against seasonal influenza in Wave 2. Principal Findings The results of the multivariate logistic regression models showed that feeling at risk (β = 0.25, p = 0.021) was the better predictor compared with probability judgment while probability judgment (β = 0.25, p = 0.029 ) was better than beliefs about risk in predicting subsequent influenza vaccination uptake. Beliefs about risk and feeling at risk seemed to predict the same aspect of subsequent vaccination uptake because their associations with vaccination uptake became insignificant when paired into the logistic regression model. Similarly, to compare the four scales for assessing probability judgment in predicting vaccination uptake, the 7-point verbal scale remained a significant and stronger predictor for vaccination uptake when paired with other three scales; the 6-point verbal scale was a significant and stronger predictor when paired with the percentage scale or the 2-point verbal scale; and the percentage scale was a significant and stronger predictor only when paired with the 2-point verbal scale. Conclusions/Significance Beliefs about risk and feeling at risk are not well differentiated by Hong Kong Chinese people. Feeling at risk, an affective-cognitive dimension of risk perception predicts subsequent vaccination uptake better than do probability judgments. Among the four scales for assessing risk probability judgment, the 7-point verbal scale offered the best predictive power for subsequent vaccination uptake. PMID:23894292

Comparison of different risk perception measures in predicting seasonal influenza vaccination among healthy Chinese adults in Hong Kong: a prospective longitudinal study.

PubMed

Liao, Qiuyan; Wong, Wing Sze; Fielding, Richard

2013-01-01

Risk perception is a reported predictor of vaccination uptake, but which measures of risk perception best predict influenza vaccination uptake remain unclear. During the main influenza seasons (between January and March) of 2009 (Wave 1) and 2010 (Wave 2),505 Chinese students and employees from a Hong Kong university completed an online survey. Multivariate logistic regression models were conducted to assess how well different risk perceptions measures in Wave 1 predicted vaccination uptake against seasonal influenza in Wave 2. The results of the multivariate logistic regression models showed that feeling at risk (β = 0.25, p = 0.021) was the better predictor compared with probability judgment while probability judgment (β = 0.25, p = 0.029 ) was better than beliefs about risk in predicting subsequent influenza vaccination uptake. Beliefs about risk and feeling at risk seemed to predict the same aspect of subsequent vaccination uptake because their associations with vaccination uptake became insignificant when paired into the logistic regression model. Similarly, to compare the four scales for assessing probability judgment in predicting vaccination uptake, the 7-point verbal scale remained a significant and stronger predictor for vaccination uptake when paired with other three scales; the 6-point verbal scale was a significant and stronger predictor when paired with the percentage scale or the 2-point verbal scale; and the percentage scale was a significant and stronger predictor only when paired with the 2-point verbal scale. Beliefs about risk and feeling at risk are not well differentiated by Hong Kong Chinese people. Feeling at risk, an affective-cognitive dimension of risk perception predicts subsequent vaccination uptake better than do probability judgments. Among the four scales for assessing risk probability judgment, the 7-point verbal scale offered the best predictive power for subsequent vaccination uptake.

A Probabilistic Approach for Reliability and Life Prediction of Electronics in Drilling and Evaluation Tools

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-12-23

A Probabilistic Approach for Reliability and Life Prediction of Electronics in Drilling and Evaluation Tools Amit A. Kale 1 , Katrina Carter...dielectric breakdown has been Amit Kale et al. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0...160.doi 10.1016/S0167- 4730(00)00005-9. BIOGRAPHIES Amit A. Kale was born in Bhopal, India on October 25 1978. He earned PhD in 2005 and MS in

The Johns Hopkins Fall Risk Assessment Tool: A Study of Reliability and Validity.

PubMed

Poe, Stephanie S; Dawson, Patricia B; Cvach, Maria; Burnett, Margaret; Kumble, Sowmya; Lewis, Maureen; Thompson, Carol B; Hill, Elizabeth E

Patient falls and fall-related injury remain a safety concern. The Johns Hopkins Fall Risk Assessment Tool (JHFRAT) was developed to facilitate early detection of risk for anticipated physiologic falls in adult inpatients. Psychometric properties in acute care settings have not yet been fully established; this study sought to fill that gap. Results indicate that the JHFRAT is reliable, with high sensitivity and negative predictive validity. Specificity and positive predictive validity were lower than expected.

Task constraints distinguish perspective inferences from perspective use during discourse interpretation in a false belief task.

PubMed

Ferguson, Heather J; Apperly, Ian; Ahmad, Jumana; Bindemann, Markus; Cane, James

2015-06-01

Interpreting other peoples' actions relies on an understanding of their current mental states (e.g. beliefs, desires and intentions). In this paper, we distinguish between listeners' ability to infer others' perspectives and their explicit use of this knowledge to predict subsequent actions. In a visual-world study, two groups of participants (passive observers vs. active participants) watched short videos, depicting transfer events, where one character ('Jane') either held a true or false belief about an object's location. We tracked participants' eye-movements around the final visual scene, time-locked to related auditory descriptions (e.g. "Jane will look for the chocolates in the container on the left".). Results showed that active participants had already inferred the character's belief in the 1s preview period prior to auditory onset, before it was possible to use this information to predict an outcome. Moreover, they used this inference to correctly anticipate reference to the object's initial location on false belief trials at the earliest possible point (i.e. from "Jane" onwards). In contrast, passive observers only showed evidence of a belief inference from the onset of "Jane", and did not show reliable use of this inference to predict Jane's behaviour on false belief trials until much later, when the location ("left/right") was auditorily available. These results show that active engagement in a task activates earlier inferences about others' perspectives, and drives immediate use of this information to anticipate others' actions, compared to passive observers, who are susceptible to influences from egocentric or reality biases. Finally, we review evidence that using other peoples' perspectives to predict their behaviour is more cognitively effortful than simply using one's own. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Three dimensional quantitative structure-toxicity relationship modeling and prediction of acute toxicity for organic contaminants to algae.

PubMed

Jin, Xiangqin; Jin, Minghao; Sheng, Lianxi

2014-08-01

Although numerous chemicals have been identified to have significant toxicological effect on aquatic organisms, there is still lack of a reliable, high-throughput approach to evaluate, screen and monitor the presence of organic contaminants in aquatic system. In the current study, we proposed a synthetic pipeline to automatically model and predict the acute toxicity of chemicals to algae. In the procedure, a new alignment-free three dimensional (3D) structure characterization method was described and, with this method, several 3D-quantitative structure-toxicity relationship (3D-QSTR) models were developed, from which two were found to exhibit strong internal fitting ability and high external predictive power. The best model was established by Gaussian process (GP), which was further employed to perform extrapolation on a random compound library consisting of 1014 virtually generated substituted benzenes. It was found that (i) substitution number can only exert slight influence on chemical׳s toxicity, but low-substituted benzenes seem to have higher toxicity than those of high-substituted entities, and (ii) benzenes substituted by nitro group and halogens exhibit high acute toxicity as compared to other substituents such as methyl and carboxyl groups. Subsequently, several promising candidates suggested by computational prediction were assayed by using a standard algal growth inhibition test. Consequently, four substituted benzenes, namely 2,3-dinitrophenol, 2-chloro-4-nitroaniline, 1,2,3-trinitrobenzene and 3-bromophenol, were determined to have high acute toxicity to Scenedesmus obliquus, with their EC50 values of 2.5±0.8, 10.5±2.1, 1.4±0.2 and 42.7±5.4μmol/L, respectively. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Relating resting-state fMRI and EEG whole-brain connectomes across frequency bands.

PubMed

Deligianni, Fani; Centeno, Maria; Carmichael, David W; Clayden, Jonathan D

2014-01-01

Whole brain functional connectomes hold promise for understanding human brain activity across a range of cognitive, developmental and pathological states. So called resting-state (rs) functional MRI studies have contributed to the brain being considered at a macroscopic scale as a set of interacting regions. Interactions are defined as correlation-based signal measurements driven by blood oxygenation level dependent (BOLD) contrast. Understanding the neurophysiological basis of these measurements is important in conveying useful information about brain function. Local coupling between BOLD fMRI and neurophysiological measurements is relatively well defined, with evidence that gamma (range) frequency EEG signals are the closest correlate of BOLD fMRI changes during cognitive processing. However, it is less clear how whole-brain network interactions relate during rest where lower frequency signals have been suggested to play a key role. Simultaneous EEG-fMRI offers the opportunity to observe brain network dynamics with high spatio-temporal resolution. We utilize these measurements to compare the connectomes derived from rs-fMRI and EEG band limited power (BLP). Merging this multi-modal information requires the development of an appropriate statistical framework. We relate the covariance matrices of the Hilbert envelope of the source localized EEG signal across bands to the covariance matrices derived from rs-fMRI with the means of statistical prediction based on sparse Canonical Correlation Analysis (sCCA). Subsequently, we identify the most prominent connections that contribute to this relationship. We compare whole-brain functional connectomes based on their geodesic distance to reliably estimate the performance of the prediction. The performance of predicting fMRI from EEG connectomes is considerably better than predicting EEG from fMRI across all bands, whereas the connectomes derived in low frequency EEG bands resemble best rs-fMRI connectivity.

Relating resting-state fMRI and EEG whole-brain connectomes across frequency bands

PubMed Central

Deligianni, Fani; Centeno, Maria; Carmichael, David W.; Clayden, Jonathan D.

2014-01-01

Whole brain functional connectomes hold promise for understanding human brain activity across a range of cognitive, developmental and pathological states. So called resting-state (rs) functional MRI studies have contributed to the brain being considered at a macroscopic scale as a set of interacting regions. Interactions are defined as correlation-based signal measurements driven by blood oxygenation level dependent (BOLD) contrast. Understanding the neurophysiological basis of these measurements is important in conveying useful information about brain function. Local coupling between BOLD fMRI and neurophysiological measurements is relatively well defined, with evidence that gamma (range) frequency EEG signals are the closest correlate of BOLD fMRI changes during cognitive processing. However, it is less clear how whole-brain network interactions relate during rest where lower frequency signals have been suggested to play a key role. Simultaneous EEG-fMRI offers the opportunity to observe brain network dynamics with high spatio-temporal resolution. We utilize these measurements to compare the connectomes derived from rs-fMRI and EEG band limited power (BLP). Merging this multi-modal information requires the development of an appropriate statistical framework. We relate the covariance matrices of the Hilbert envelope of the source localized EEG signal across bands to the covariance matrices derived from rs-fMRI with the means of statistical prediction based on sparse Canonical Correlation Analysis (sCCA). Subsequently, we identify the most prominent connections that contribute to this relationship. We compare whole-brain functional connectomes based on their geodesic distance to reliably estimate the performance of the prediction. The performance of predicting fMRI from EEG connectomes is considerably better than predicting EEG from fMRI across all bands, whereas the connectomes derived in low frequency EEG bands resemble best rs-fMRI connectivity. PMID:25221467

Motivational Interviewing Fidelity in a Community Corrections Setting: Treatment Initiation and Subsequent Drug Use.

PubMed

Spohr, Stephanie A; Taxman, Faye S; Rodriguez, Mayra; Walters, Scott T

2016-06-01

Although substance use is common among people in the U.S. criminal justice system, treatment initiation remains an ongoing problem. This study assessed the reliability and predictive validity of the Motivational Interviewing Treatment Integrity 3.1.1. (MITI) coding instrument in a community corrections sample. We used data from 80 substance-using clients who were participating in a clinical trial of MI in a probation setting. We analyzed 124 MI counseling sessions using the MITI, a coding system for documenting MI fidelity. Bivariate associations and logistic regression modeling were used to determine if MI-consistent behaviors predicted substance use or treatment initiation at a 2-month follow-up. We found a high level of agreement between coders on behavioral utterance counts. Counselors met at least beginning proficiency on most MITI summary scores. Probationers who initiated treatment at 2-month follow-up had significantly higher ratings of clinician empathy and MI spirit than clients who did not initiate treatment. Other MITI summary scores were not significantly different between clients who had initiated treatment and those who did not. MI spirit and empathy ratings were entered into a forward logistic regression in which MI spirit significantly predicted 2-month treatment initiation (χ(2) (1)=4.10, p<.05, R(2)=.05) but counselor empathy did not. MITI summary scores did not predict substance use at 2-month follow-up. Counselor MI-consistent relational skills were an important predictor of client treatment initiation. Counselor behaviors such as empathy and MI spirit may be important for developing client rapport with people in a probation setting. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Inc.

The reliability-quality relationship for quality systems and quality risk management.

PubMed

Claycamp, H Gregg; Rahaman, Faiad; Urban, Jason M

2012-01-01

Engineering reliability typically refers to the probability that a system, or any of its components, will perform a required function for a stated period of time and under specified operating conditions. As such, reliability is inextricably linked with time-dependent quality concepts, such as maintaining a state of control and predicting the chances of losses from failures for quality risk management. Two popular current good manufacturing practice (cGMP) and quality risk management tools, failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) and root cause analysis (RCA) are examples of engineering reliability evaluations that link reliability with quality and risk. Current concepts in pharmaceutical quality and quality management systems call for more predictive systems for maintaining quality; yet, the current pharmaceutical manufacturing literature and guidelines are curiously silent on engineering quality. This commentary discusses the meaning of engineering reliability while linking the concept to quality systems and quality risk management. The essay also discusses the difference between engineering reliability and statistical (assay) reliability. The assurance of quality in a pharmaceutical product is no longer measured only "after the fact" of manufacturing. Rather, concepts of quality systems and quality risk management call for designing quality assurance into all stages of the pharmaceutical product life cycle. Interestingly, most assays for quality are essentially static and inform product quality over the life cycle only by being repeated over time. Engineering process reliability is the fundamental concept that is meant to anticipate quality failures over the life cycle of the product. Reliability is a well-developed theory and practice for other types of manufactured products and manufacturing processes. Thus, it is well known to be an appropriate index of manufactured product quality. This essay discusses the meaning of reliability and its linkages with quality systems and quality risk management.

Reliability evaluation of a multistate network subject to time constraint under routing policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Yi-Kuei

2013-08-01

A multistate network is a stochastic network composed of multistate arcs in which each arc has several possible capacities and may fail due to failure, maintenance, etc. The quality of a multistate network depends on how to meet the customer's requirements and how to provide the service in time. The system reliability, the probability that a given amount of data can be transmitted through a pair of minimal paths (MPs) simultaneously under the time constraint, is a proper index to evaluate the quality of a multistate network. An efficient solution procedure is first proposed to calculate it. In order to further enhance the system reliability, the network administrator decides the routing policy in advance to indicate the first and the second priority pairs of MPs. The second priority pair of MPs takes charge of the transmission duty if the first fails. The system reliability under the routing policy can be subsequently evaluated.

First impressions: gait cues drive reliable trait judgements.

PubMed

Thoresen, John C; Vuong, Quoc C; Atkinson, Anthony P

2012-09-01

Personality trait attribution can underpin important social decisions and yet requires little effort; even a brief exposure to a photograph can generate lasting impressions. Body movement is a channel readily available to observers and allows judgements to be made when facial and body appearances are less visible; e.g., from great distances. Across three studies, we assessed the reliability of trait judgements of point-light walkers and identified motion-related visual cues driving observers' judgements. The findings confirm that observers make reliable, albeit inaccurate, trait judgements, and these were linked to a small number of motion components derived from a Principal Component Analysis of the motion data. Parametric manipulation of the motion components linearly affected trait ratings, providing strong evidence that the visual cues captured by these components drive observers' trait judgements. Subsequent analyses suggest that reliability of trait ratings was driven by impressions of emotion, attractiveness and masculinity. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Thin-film module circuit design: Practical and reliability aspects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Daiello, R. V.; Twesme, E. N.

1985-01-01

This paper will address several aspects of the design and construction of submodules based on thin film amorphous silicon (a-Si) p i n solar cells. Starting from presently attainable single cell characteristics, and a realistic set of specifications, practical module designs are discussed from the viewpoints of efficient designs, the fabrication requirements, and reliability concerns. The examples center mostly on series interconnected modules of the superstrate type with detailed discussions of each portion of the structure in relation to its influence on module efficiency. Emphasis is placed on engineering topics such as: area coverage, optimal geometries, and cost and reliability. Practical constraints on achieving optimal designs, along with some examples of potential pitfalls in the manufacture and subsequent performance of a-Si modules are discussed.

Ensuring reliability in expansion schemes.

PubMed

Kamal-Uddin, Abu Sayed; Williams, Donald Leigh

2005-01-01

Existing electricity power supplies must serve, or be adapted to serve, the expansion of hospital buildings. With the existing power supply assets of many hospitals being up to 20 years old, assessing the security and reliability of the power system must be given appropriate priority to avoid unplanned outages due to overloads and equipment failures. It is imperative that adequate contingency is planned for essential and non-essential electricity circuits. This article describes the methodology undertaken, and the subsequent recommendations that were made, when evaluating the security and reliability of electricity power supplies to a number of major London hospitals. The methodology described aligns with the latest issue of NHS Estates HTM 2011 'Primary Electrical Infrastructure Emergency Electrical Services Design Guidance' (to which ERA Technology has contributed).

Valid and Reliable Science Content Assessments for Science Teachers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tretter, Thomas R.; Brown, Sherri L.; Bush, William S.; Saderholm, Jon C.; Holmes, Vicki-Lynn

2013-03-01

Science teachers' content knowledge is an important influence on student learning, highlighting an ongoing need for programs, and assessments of those programs, designed to support teacher learning of science. Valid and reliable assessments of teacher science knowledge are needed for direct measurement of this crucial variable. This paper describes multiple sources of validity and reliability (Cronbach's alpha greater than 0.8) evidence for physical, life, and earth/space science assessments—part of the Diagnostic Teacher Assessments of Mathematics and Science (DTAMS) project. Validity was strengthened by systematic synthesis of relevant documents, extensive use of external reviewers, and field tests with 900 teachers during assessment development process. Subsequent results from 4,400 teachers, analyzed with Rasch IRT modeling techniques, offer construct and concurrent validity evidence.

Assessing the utility of frequency tagging for tracking memory-based reactivation of word representations.

PubMed

Lewis, Ashley Glen; Schriefers, Herbert; Bastiaansen, Marcel; Schoffelen, Jan-Mathijs

2018-05-21

Reinstatement of memory-related neural activity measured with high temporal precision potentially provides a useful index for real-time monitoring of the timing of activation of memory content during cognitive processing. The utility of such an index extends to any situation where one is interested in the (relative) timing of activation of different sources of information in memory, a paradigm case of which is tracking lexical activation during language processing. Essential for this approach is that memory reinstatement effects are robust, so that their absence (in the average) definitively indicates that no lexical activation is present. We used electroencephalography to test the robustness of a reported subsequent memory finding involving reinstatement of frequency-specific entrained oscillatory brain activity during subsequent recognition. Participants learned lists of words presented on a background flickering at either 6 or 15 Hz to entrain a steady-state brain response. Target words subsequently presented on a non-flickering background that were correctly identified as previously seen exhibited reinstatement effects at both entrainment frequencies. Reliability of these statistical inferences was however critically dependent on the approach used for multiple comparisons correction. We conclude that effects are not robust enough to be used as a reliable index of lexical activation during language processing.

Protein-Protein Interface Predictions by Data-Driven Methods: A Review

PubMed Central

Xue, Li C; Dobbs, Drena; Bonvin, Alexandre M.J.J.; Honavar, Vasant

2015-01-01

Reliably pinpointing which specific amino acid residues form the interface(s) between a protein and its binding partner(s) is critical for understanding the structural and physicochemical determinants of protein recognition and binding affinity, and has wide applications in modeling and validating protein interactions predicted by high-throughput methods, in engineering proteins, and in prioritizing drug targets. Here, we review the basic concepts, principles and recent advances in computational approaches to the analysis and prediction of protein-protein interfaces. We point out caveats for objectively evaluating interface predictors, and discuss various applications of data-driven interface predictors for improving energy model-driven protein-protein docking. Finally, we stress the importance of exploiting binding partner information in reliably predicting interfaces and highlight recent advances in this emerging direction. PMID:26460190

The comparison of predictive scheduling algorithms for different sizes of job shop scheduling problems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paprocka, I.; Kempa, W. M.; Grabowik, C.; Kalinowski, K.; Krenczyk, D.

2016-08-01

In the paper a survey of predictive and reactive scheduling methods is done in order to evaluate how the ability of prediction of reliability characteristics influences over robustness criteria. The most important reliability characteristics are: Mean Time to Failure, Mean Time of Repair. Survey analysis is done for a job shop scheduling problem. The paper answers the question: what method generates robust schedules in the case of a bottleneck failure occurrence before, at the beginning of planned maintenance actions or after planned maintenance actions? Efficiency of predictive schedules is evaluated using criteria: makespan, total tardiness, flow time, idle time. Efficiency of reactive schedules is evaluated using: solution robustness criterion and quality robustness criterion. This paper is the continuation of the research conducted in the paper [1], where the survey of predictive and reactive scheduling methods is done only for small size scheduling problems.

Defining physicians' readiness to screen and manage intimate partner violence in Greek primary care settings.

PubMed

Papadakaki, Maria; Prokopiadou, Dimitra; Petridou, Eleni; Kogevinas, Manolis; Lionis, Christos

2012-06-01

The current article aims to translate the PREMIS (Physician Readiness to Manage Intimate Partner Violence) survey into the Greek language and test its validity and reliability in a sample of primary care physicians. The validation study was conducted in 2010 and involved all the general practitioners serving two adjacent prefectures of Greece (n = 80). Maximum-likelihood factor analysis (MLF) was used to extract key survey factors. The instrument was further assessed for the following psychometric properties: (a) scale reliability, (b) item-specific reliability, (c) test-retest reliability, (d) scale construct validity, and (e) internal predictive validity. The MLF analysis of 23 opinion items revealed a seven-factor solution (preparation, constraint, workplace issues, screening, self-efficacy, alcohol/drugs, victim understanding), which was statistically sound (p = .293). Most of the newly derived scales displayed satisfactory internal consistency (α ≥ .60), high item-specific reliability, strong construct, and internal predictive validity (F = 2.82; p = .004), and high repeatability when retested with 20 individuals (intraclass correlation coefficient [ICC] > .70). The tool was found appropriate to facilitate the identification of competence deficits and the evaluation of training initiatives.

Probabilistic Analysis of Aircraft Gas Turbine Disk Life and Reliability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Melis, Matthew E.; Zaretsky, Erwin V.; August, Richard

1999-01-01

Two series of low cycle fatigue (LCF) test data for two groups of different aircraft gas turbine engine compressor disk geometries were reanalyzed and compared using Weibull statistics. Both groups of disks were manufactured from titanium (Ti-6Al-4V) alloy. A NASA Glenn Research Center developed probabilistic computer code Probable Cause was used to predict disk life and reliability. A material-life factor A was determined for titanium (Ti-6Al-4V) alloy based upon fatigue disk data and successfully applied to predict the life of the disks as a function of speed. A comparison was made with the currently used life prediction method based upon crack growth rate. Applying an endurance limit to the computer code did not significantly affect the predicted lives under engine operating conditions. Failure location prediction correlates with those experimentally observed in the LCF tests. A reasonable correlation was obtained between the predicted disk lives using the Probable Cause code and a modified crack growth method for life prediction. Both methods slightly overpredict life for one disk group and significantly under predict it for the other.

A REVIEW OF SINGLE SPECIES TOXICITY TESTS: ARE THE TESTS RELIABLE PREDICTORS OF AQUATIC ECOSYSTEM COMMUNITY RESPONSES?

EPA Science Inventory

This document provides a comprehensive review to evaluate the reliability of indicator species toxicity test results in predicting aquatic ecosystem impacts, also called the ecological relevance of laboratory single species toxicity tests.

Validation of urban freeway models. [supporting datasets

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2015-01-01

The goal of the SHRP 2 Project L33 Validation of Urban Freeway Models was to assess and enhance the predictive travel time reliability models developed in the SHRP 2 Project L03, Analytic Procedures for Determining the Impacts of Reliability Mitigati...

Flower power: tree flowering phenology as a settlement cue for migrating birds.

PubMed

McGrath, Laura J; van Riper, Charles; Fontaine, Joseph J

2009-01-01

1. Neotropical migrant birds show a clear preference for stopover habitats with ample food supplies; yet, the proximate cues underlying these decisions remain unclear. 2. For insectivorous migrants, cues associated with vegetative phenology (e.g. flowering, leaf flush, and leaf loss) may reliably predict the availability of herbivorous arthropods. Here we examined whether migrants use the phenology of five tree species to choose stopover locations, and whether phenology accurately predicts food availability. 3. Using a combination of experimental and observational evidence, we show migrant populations closely track tree phenology, particularly the flowering phenology of honey mesquite (Prosopis glandulosa), and preferentially forage in trees with more flowers. Furthermore, the flowering phenology of honey mesquite reliably predicts overall arthropod abundance as well as the arthropods preferred by migrants for food. 4. Together, these results suggest that honey mesquite flowering phenology is an important cue used by migrants to assess food availability quickly and reliably, while in transit during spring migration.

Flower power: Tree flowering phenology as a settlement cue for migrating birds

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGrath, L.J.; van Riper, Charles; Fontaine, J.J.

2009-01-01

1. Neotropical migrant birds show a clear preference for stopover habitats with ample food supplies; yet, the proximate cues underlying these decisions remain unclear. 2. For insectivorous migrants, cues associated with vegetative phenology (e.g. flowering, leaf flush, and leaf loss) may reliably predict the availability of herbivorous arthropods. Here we examined whether migrants use the phenology of five tree species to choose stopover locations, and whether phenology accurately predicts food availability. 3. Using a combination of experimental and observational evidence, we show migrant populations closely track tree phenology, particularly the flowering phenology of honey mesquite (Prosopis glandulosa), and preferentially forage in trees with more flowers. Furthermore, the flowering phenology of honey mesquite reliably predicts overall arthropod abundance as well as the arthropods preferred by migrants for food. 4. Together, these results suggest that honey mesquite flowering phenology is an important cue used by migrants to assess food availability quickly and reliably, while in transit during spring migration. ?? 2008 The Authors.

Validation of the 4P's Plus screen for substance use in pregnancy validation of the 4P's Plus.

PubMed

Chasnoff, I J; Wells, A M; McGourty, R F; Bailey, L K

2007-12-01

The purpose of this study is to validate the 4P's Plus screen for substance use in pregnancy. A total of 228 pregnant women enrolled in prenatal care underwent screening with the 4P's Plus and received a follow-up clinical assessment for substance use. Statistical analyses regarding reliability, sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive validity of the 4Ps Plus were conducted. The overall reliability for the five-item measure was 0.62. Seventy-four (32.5%) of the women had a positive screen. Sensitivity and specificity were very good, at 87 and 76%, respectively. Positive predictive validity was low (36%), but negative predictive validity was quite high (97%). Of the 31 women who had a positive clinical assessment, 45% were using less than 1 day per week. The 4P's Plus reliably and effectively screens pregnant women for risk of substance use, including those women typically missed by other perinatal screening methodologies.

Predicting wettability behavior of fluorosilica coated metal surface using optimum neural network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taghipour-Gorjikolaie, Mehran; Valipour Motlagh, Naser

2018-02-01

The interaction between variables, which are effective on the surface wettability, is very complex to predict the contact angles and sliding angles of liquid drops. In this paper, in order to solve this complexity, artificial neural network was used to develop reliable models for predicting the angles of liquid drops. Experimental data are divided into training data and testing data. By using training data and feed forward structure for the neural network and using particle swarm optimization for training the neural network based models, the optimum models were developed. The obtained results showed that regression index for the proposed models for the contact angles and sliding angles are 0.9874 and 0.9920, respectively. As it can be seen, these values are close to unit and it means the reliable performance of the models. Also, it can be inferred from the results that the proposed model have more reliable performance than multi-layer perceptron and radial basis function based models.

Predictive models of safety based on audit findings: Part 1: Model development and reliability.

PubMed

Hsiao, Yu-Lin; Drury, Colin; Wu, Changxu; Paquet, Victor

2013-03-01

This consecutive study was aimed at the quantitative validation of safety audit tools as predictors of safety performance, as we were unable to find prior studies that tested audit validity against safety outcomes. An aviation maintenance domain was chosen for this work as both audits and safety outcomes are currently prescribed and regulated. In Part 1, we developed a Human Factors/Ergonomics classification framework based on HFACS model (Shappell and Wiegmann, 2001a,b), for the human errors detected by audits, because merely counting audit findings did not predict future safety. The framework was tested for measurement reliability using four participants, two of whom classified errors on 1238 audit reports. Kappa values leveled out after about 200 audits at between 0.5 and 0.8 for different tiers of errors categories. This showed sufficient reliability to proceed with prediction validity testing in Part 2. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd and The Ergonomics Society. All rights reserved.

Developing a novel hierarchical approach for multiscale structural reliability predictions for ultra-high consequence applications

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Emery, John M.; Coffin, Peter; Robbins, Brian A.

Microstructural variabilities are among the predominant sources of uncertainty in structural performance and reliability. We seek to develop efficient algorithms for multiscale calcu- lations for polycrystalline alloys such as aluminum alloy 6061-T6 in environments where ductile fracture is the dominant failure mode. Our approach employs concurrent multiscale methods, but does not focus on their development. They are a necessary but not sufficient ingredient to multiscale reliability predictions. We have focused on how to efficiently use concurrent models for forward propagation because practical applications cannot include fine-scale details throughout the problem domain due to exorbitant computational demand. Our approach begins withmore » a low-fidelity prediction at the engineering scale that is sub- sequently refined with multiscale simulation. The results presented in this report focus on plasticity and damage at the meso-scale, efforts to expedite Monte Carlo simulation with mi- crostructural considerations, modeling aspects regarding geometric representation of grains and second-phase particles, and contrasting algorithms for scale coupling.« less

The Reliability and Predictive Validity of the Stalking Risk Profile.

PubMed

McEwan, Troy E; Shea, Daniel E; Daffern, Michael; MacKenzie, Rachel D; Ogloff, James R P; Mullen, Paul E

2018-03-01

This study assessed the reliability and validity of the Stalking Risk Profile (SRP), a structured measure for assessing stalking risks. The SRP was administered at the point of assessment or retrospectively from file review for 241 adult stalkers (91% male) referred to a community-based forensic mental health service. Interrater reliability was high for stalker type, and moderate-to-substantial for risk judgments and domain scores. Evidence for predictive validity and discrimination between stalking recidivists and nonrecidivists for risk judgments depended on follow-up duration. Discrimination was moderate (area under the curve = 0.66-0.68) and positive and negative predictive values good over the full follow-up period ( Mdn = 170.43 weeks). At 6 months, discrimination was better than chance only for judgments related to stalking of new victims (area under the curve = 0.75); however, high-risk stalkers still reoffended against their original victim(s) 2 to 4 times as often as low-risk stalkers. Implications for the clinical utility and refinement of the SRP are discussed.

A Microfluidics Study to Quantify the Impact of Microfracture Properties on Two-Phase Flow in Tight Rocks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mehmani, A.; Kelly, S. A.; Torres-Verdin, C.; Balhoff, M.

2017-12-01

Microfluidics provides the opportunity for controlled experiments of immiscible fluid dynamics in quasi two-dimensional permeable media and allows their direct observation. We leverage microfluidics to investigate the impact of microfracture properties on water imbibition and drainage in a porous matrix. In the context of this work, microfractures are defined as apertures or preferential flow paths formed along planes of weakness, such as between two different rock fabrics. Patterns of pseudo-microfractures with orientations from parallel and perpendicular to fluid flow as well as variations in their connectivity were fabricated in glass micromodels; surface roughness of the micromodels was also varied utilizing a new method. Light microscopy and image analysis were used to quantify transient front advancement and trapped non-wetting phase saturation during imbibition as well as residual wetting phase saturation and its spatial distribution following drainage. Our experiments enable the assessment of quantitative relationships between fluid invasion rate and residual phase distributions as functions of microfracture network properties. Ultimately, the wide variety of microfluidic experiments performed in this study provide valuable insight into two-phase fluid dynamics in microfracture/matrix networks, the extent of fracture fluid invasion, and the saturation of trapped phases. In reservoir description, the geometries of subsurface fractures are often difficult to ascertain, but the distribution of rock types in a zone, from highly laminated to homogenous, can be reliably assessed with core data and well logs. Assuming that microcracks are functions of lamination planes (thin beds), then a priori predictions of the effect of microcracks on two-phase fluid flow across various geological conditions can possibly be upscaled via effective lamination properties. Such upscaling can significantly reduce the uncertainties associated with subsurface operations, including reservoir production, carbon storage and sequestration, and hazardous waste sequestration. A reliable prediction of capillary trapping, for instance, can determine the fracture fluid saturation subsequent to hydraulic fracturing of unconventional formations or the efficacy of water flooding in fractured reservoirs.

Illustrated structural application of universal first-order reliability method

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Verderaime, V.

1994-01-01

The general application of the proposed first-order reliability method was achieved through the universal normalization of engineering probability distribution data. The method superimposes prevailing deterministic techniques and practices on the first-order reliability method to surmount deficiencies of the deterministic method and provide benefits of reliability techniques and predictions. A reliability design factor is derived from the reliability criterion to satisfy a specified reliability and is analogous to the deterministic safety factor. Its application is numerically illustrated on several practical structural design and verification cases with interesting results and insights. Two concepts of reliability selection criteria are suggested. Though the method was developed to support affordable structures for access to space, the method should also be applicable for most high-performance air and surface transportation systems.

Why is past depression the best predictor of future depression? Stress generation as a mechanism of depression continuity in girls.

PubMed

Rudolph, Karen D; Flynn, Megan; Abaied, Jamie L; Groot, Alison; Thompson, Renee

2009-07-01

This study examined whether a transactional interpersonal life stress model helps to explain the continuity in depression over time in girls. Youth (86 girls, 81 boys; M age = 12.41, SD = 1.19) and their caregivers participated in a three-wave longitudinal study. Depression and episodic life stress were assessed with semistructured interviews. Path analysis provided support for a transactional interpersonal life stress model in girls but not in boys, wherein depression predicted the generation of interpersonal stress, which predicted subsequent depression. Moreover, self-generated interpersonal stress partially accounted for the continuity of depression over time. Although depression predicted noninterpersonal stress generation in girls (but not in boys), noninterpersonal stress did not predict subsequent depression.

Storage reliability analysis summary report. Volume 2: Electro mechanical devices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, H. B., Jr.; Krulac, I. L.

1982-09-01

This document summarizes storage reliability data collected by the US Army Missile Command on electro-mechanical devices over a period of several years. Sources of data are detailed, major failure modes and mechanisms are listed and discussed. Non-operational failure rate prediction methodology is given, and conclusions and recommendations for enhancing the storage reliability of devices are drawn from the analysis of collected data.

RELIABILITY, AVAILABILITY, AND SERVICEABILITY FOR PETASCALE HIGH-END COMPUTING AND BEYOND

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chokchai "Box" Leangsuksun

2011-05-31

Our project is a multi-institutional research effort that adopts interplay of RELIABILITY, AVAILABILITY, and SERVICEABILITY (RAS) aspects for solving resilience issues in highend scientific computing in the next generation of supercomputers. results lie in the following tracks: Failure prediction in a large scale HPC; Investigate reliability issues and mitigation techniques including in GPGPU-based HPC system; HPC resilience runtime & tools.

The Watch-and-Wait Task: On the Reliability and Validity of a New Method of Assessing Self-Control in Preschool Children

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Neubauer, Anna; Gawrilow, Caterina; Hasselhorn, Marcus

2012-01-01

A preschooler's ability to delay gratification in the waiting task is predictive of several developmental outcomes, despite this task's relatively low reliability level. Success in this task depends on the use of distraction strategies. The new Watch-and-Wait Task (WWT) has been developed to enhance reliability and to investigate whether the…

Multi-model ensemble hydrologic prediction using Bayesian model averaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duan, Qingyun; Ajami, Newsha K.; Gao, Xiaogang; Sorooshian, Soroosh

2007-05-01

Multi-model ensemble strategy is a means to exploit the diversity of skillful predictions from different models. This paper studies the use of Bayesian model averaging (BMA) scheme to develop more skillful and reliable probabilistic hydrologic predictions from multiple competing predictions made by several hydrologic models. BMA is a statistical procedure that infers consensus predictions by weighing individual predictions based on their probabilistic likelihood measures, with the better performing predictions receiving higher weights than the worse performing ones. Furthermore, BMA provides a more reliable description of the total predictive uncertainty than the original ensemble, leading to a sharper and better calibrated probability density function (PDF) for the probabilistic predictions. In this study, a nine-member ensemble of hydrologic predictions was used to test and evaluate the BMA scheme. This ensemble was generated by calibrating three different hydrologic models using three distinct objective functions. These objective functions were chosen in a way that forces the models to capture certain aspects of the hydrograph well (e.g., peaks, mid-flows and low flows). Two sets of numerical experiments were carried out on three test basins in the US to explore the best way of using the BMA scheme. In the first set, a single set of BMA weights was computed to obtain BMA predictions, while the second set employed multiple sets of weights, with distinct sets corresponding to different flow intervals. In both sets, the streamflow values were transformed using Box-Cox transformation to ensure that the probability distribution of the prediction errors is approximately Gaussian. A split sample approach was used to obtain and validate the BMA predictions. The test results showed that BMA scheme has the advantage of generating more skillful and equally reliable probabilistic predictions than original ensemble. The performance of the expected BMA predictions in terms of daily root mean square error (DRMS) and daily absolute mean error (DABS) is generally superior to that of the best individual predictions. Furthermore, the BMA predictions employing multiple sets of weights are generally better than those using single set of weights.

The Role of Substance Use Initiation in Adolescent Development of Subsequent Substance-Related Problems

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Magid, Viktoriya; Moreland, Angela D.

2014-01-01

A systematic review was conducted on the role of substance use initiation in subsequent use and substance-related problems among adolescents. Specifically, we examine previous studies to identify whether age of onset predicts subsequent levels of misuse; we also posit reasons for this association that have been suggested within the literature. In…

Identifying Future Drinkers: Behavioral Analysis of Monkeys Initiating Drinking to Intoxication is Predictive of Future Drinking Classification.

PubMed

Baker, Erich J; Walter, Nicole A R; Salo, Alex; Rivas Perea, Pablo; Moore, Sharon; Gonzales, Steven; Grant, Kathleen A

2017-03-01

The Monkey Alcohol Tissue Research Resource (MATRR) is a repository and analytics platform for detailed data derived from well-documented nonhuman primate (NHP) alcohol self-administration studies. This macaque model has demonstrated categorical drinking norms reflective of human drinking populations, resulting in consumption pattern classifications of very heavy drinking (VHD), heavy drinking (HD), binge drinking (BD), and low drinking (LD) individuals. Here, we expand on previous findings that suggest ethanol drinking patterns during initial drinking to intoxication can reliably predict future drinking category assignment. The classification strategy uses a machine-learning approach to examine an extensive set of daily drinking attributes during 90 sessions of induction across 7 cohorts of 5 to 8 monkeys for a total of 50 animals. A Random Forest classifier is employed to accurately predict categorical drinking after 12 months of self-administration. Predictive outcome accuracy is approximately 78% when classes are aggregated into 2 groups, "LD and BD" and "HD and VHD." A subsequent 2-step classification model distinguishes individual LD and BD categories with 90% accuracy and between HD and VHD categories with 95% accuracy. Average 4-category classification accuracy is 74%, and provides putative distinguishing behavioral characteristics between groupings. We demonstrate that data derived from the induction phase of this ethanol self-administration protocol have significant predictive power for future ethanol consumption patterns. Importantly, numerous predictive factors are longitudinal, measuring the change of drinking patterns through 3 stages of induction. Factors during induction that predict future heavy drinkers include being younger at the time of first intoxication and developing a shorter latency to first ethanol drink. Overall, this analysis identifies predictive characteristics in future very heavy drinkers that optimize intoxication, such as having increasingly fewer bouts with more drinks. This analysis also identifies characteristic avoidance of intoxicating topographies in future low drinkers, such as increasing number of bouts and waiting longer before the first ethanol drink. Copyright © 2017 The Authors Alcoholism: Clinical & Experimental Research published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Research Society on Alcoholism.

Prediction of subacute infarct size in acute middle cerebral artery stroke: comparison of perfusion-weighted imaging and apparent diffusion coefficient maps.

PubMed

Drier, Aurélie; Tourdias, Thomas; Attal, Yohan; Sibon, Igor; Mutlu, Gurkan; Lehéricy, Stéphane; Samson, Yves; Chiras, Jacques; Dormont, Didier; Orgogozo, Jean-Marc; Dousset, Vincent; Rosso, Charlotte

2012-11-01

To compare perfusion-weighted (PW) imaging and apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) maps in prediction of infarct size and growth in patients with acute middle cerebral artery infarct. This study was approved by the local institutional review board. Written informed consent was obtained from all 80 patients. Subsequent infarct volume and growth on follow-up magnetic resonance (MR) images obtained within 6 days were compared with the predictions based on PW images by using a time-to-peak threshold greater than 4 seconds and ADC maps obtained less than 12 hours after middle cerebral artery infarct. ADC- and PW imaging-predicted infarct growth areas and infarct volumes were correlated with subsequent infarct growth and follow-up diffusion-weighted (DW) imaging volumes. The impact of MR imaging time delay on the correlation coefficient between the predicted and subsequent infarct volumes and individual predictions of infarct growth by using receiver operating characteristic curves were assessed. The infarct volume measurements were highly reproducible (concordance correlation coefficient [CCC] of 0.965 and 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.949, 0.976 for acute DW imaging; CCC of 0.995 and 95% CI: 0.993, 0.997 for subacute DW imaging). The subsequent infarct volume correlated (P<.0001) with ADC- (ρ=0.853) and PW imaging- (ρ=0.669) predicted volumes. The correlation was higher for ADC-predicted volume than for PW imaging-predicted volume (P<.005), but not when the analysis was restricted to patients without recanalization (P=.07). The infarct growth correlated (P<.0001) with PW imaging-DW imaging mismatch (ρ=0.470) and ADC-DW imaging mismatch (ρ=0.438), without significant differences between both methods (P=.71). The correlations were similar among time delays with ADC-predicted volumes but decreased with PW imaging-based volumes beyond the therapeutic window. Accuracies of ADC- and PW imaging-based predictions of infarct growth in an individual prediction were similar (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC] of 0.698 and 95% CI: 0.585, 0.796 vs AUC of 0.749 and 95% CI: 0.640, 0.839; P=.48). The ADC-based method was as accurate as the PW imaging-based method for evaluating infarct growth and size in the subacute phase. © RSNA, 2012

Use of Landsat data to predict the trophic state of Minnesota lakes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lillesand, T. M.; Johnson, W. L.; Deuell, R. L.; Lindstrom, O. M.; Meisner, D. E.

1983-01-01

Near-concurrent Landsat Multispectral Scanner (MSS) and ground data were obtained for 60 lakes distributed in two Landsat scene areas. The ground data included measurement of secchi disk depth, chlorophyll-a, total phosphorous, turbidity, color, and total nitrogen, as well as Carlson Trophic State Index (TSI) values derived from the first three parameters. The Landsat data best correlated with the TSI values. Prediction models were developed to classify some 100 'test' lakes appearing in the two analysis scenes on the basis of TSI estimates. Clouds, wind, poor image data, small lake size, and shallow lake depth caused some problems in lake TSI prediction. Overall, however, the Landsat-predicted TSI estimates were judged to be very reliable for the secchi-derived TSI estimation, moderately reliable for prediction of the chlorophyll-a TSI, and unreliable for the phosphorous value. Numerous Landsat data extraction procedures were compared, and the success of the Landsat TSI prediction models was a strong function of the procedure employed.

Validation of behave fire behavior predictions in oak savannas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grabner, Keith W.; Dwyer, John; Cutter, Bruce E.

1997-01-01

Prescribed fire is a valuable tool in the restoration and management of oak savannas. BEHAVE, a fire behavior prediction system developed by the United States Forest Service, can be a useful tool when managing oak savannas with prescribed fire. BEHAVE predictions of fire rate-of-spread and flame length were validated using four standardized fuel models: Fuel Model 1 (short grass), Fuel Model 2 (timber and grass), Fuel Model 3 (tall grass), and Fuel Model 9 (hardwood litter). Also, a customized oak savanna fuel model (COSFM) was created and validated. Results indicate that standardized fuel model 2 and the COSFM reliably estimate mean rate-of-spread (MROS). The COSFM did not appreciably reduce MROS variation when compared to fuel model 2. Fuel models 1, 3, and 9 did not reliably predict MROS. Neither the standardized fuel models nor the COSFM adequately predicted flame lengths. We concluded that standardized fuel model 2 should be used with BEHAVE when predicting fire rates-of-spread in established oak savannas.

Adverse Pregnancy Outcomes after Abnormal First Trimester Screening for Aneuploidy

PubMed Central

Goetzl, Laura

2010-01-01

Women with abnormal first trimester screening but with a normal karyotype are at risk for adverse pregnancy outcomes. A nuchal translucency >3.5mm is associated with an increased risk of subsequent pregnancy loss, fetal infection, fetal heart abnormalities and other structural abnormalities. Abnormal first trimester analytes are also associated with adverse pregnancy outcomes but the predictive value is less impressive. As a single marker, PAPP-A <1st%ile has a good predictive value for subsequent fetal growth restriction. Women with PAPP-A<5th%ile should undergo subsequent risk assessment with routine MSAFP screening with the possible addition of uterine artery PI assessment in the midtrimester. PMID:20638576

Does subsequent criminal justice involvement predict foster care and termination of parental rights for children born to incarcerated women?

PubMed

Kubiak, Sheryl Pimlott; Kasiborski, Natalie; Karim, Nidal; Schmittel, Emily

2012-01-01

This longitudinal study of 83 incarcerated women, who gave birth during incarceration and retained their parental rights through brief sentences, examines the intersection between subsequent criminal justice involvement postrelease and child welfare outcomes. Ten years of multiple state-level administrative data sets are used to determine if arrest or conviction predict foster care and/or termination of parental rights. Findings indicate that only felony arrest is a significant predictor of foster care involvement. Additionally, 69% of mothers retained legal custody, despite subsequent criminal involvement for many, suggesting supportive parenting programs and resources need to be available to these women throughout and after incarceration.

Scale Development for Measuring and Predicting Adolescents’ Leisure Time Physical Activity Behavior

PubMed Central

Ries, Francis; Romero Granados, Santiago; Arribas Galarraga, Silvia

2009-01-01

The aim of this study was to develop a scale for assessing and predicting adolescents’ physical activity behavior in Spain and Luxembourg using the Theory of Planned Behavior as a framework. The sample was comprised of 613 Spanish (boys = 309, girls = 304; M age =15.28, SD =1.127) and 752 Luxembourgish adolescents (boys = 343, girls = 409; M age = 14.92, SD = 1.198), selected from students of two secondary schools in both countries, with a similar socio-economic status. The initial 43-items were all scored on a 4-point response format using the structured alternative format and translated into Spanish, French and German. In order to ensure the accuracy of the translation, standardized parallel back-translation techniques were employed. Following two pilot tests and subsequent revisions, a second order exploratory factor analysis with oblimin direct rotation was used for factor extraction. Internal consistency and test-retest reliabilities were also tested. The 4-week test-retest correlations confirmed the items’ time stability. The same five factors were obtained, explaining 63.76% and 63.64% of the total variance in both samples. Internal consistency for the five factors ranged from α = 0.759 to α = 0. 949 in the Spanish sample and from α = 0.735 to α = 0.952 in the Luxembourgish sample. For both samples, inter-factor correlations were all reported significant and positive, except for Factor 5 where they were significant but negative. The high internal consistency of the subscales, the reported item test-retest reliabilities and the identical factor structure confirm the adequacy of the elaborated questionnaire for assessing the TPB-based constructs when used with a population of adolescents in Spain and Luxembourg. The results give some indication that they may have value in measuring the hypothesized TPB constructs for PA behavior in a cross-cultural context. Key points When using the structured alternative format, weak internal consistency was obtained. Rephrasing the items and scoring items on a Likert-type scale enhanced greatly the subscales reliability. Identical factorial structure was extracted for both culturally different samples. The obtained factors, namely perceived physical competence, parents’ physical activity, perceived resources support, attitude toward physical activity and perceived parental support were hypothesized as for the original TPB constructs. PMID:24149606

Scale development for measuring and predicting adolescents' leisure time physical activity behavior.

PubMed

Ries, Francis; Romero Granados, Santiago; Arribas Galarraga, Silvia

2009-01-01

The aim of this study was to develop a scale for assessing and predicting adolescents' physical activity behavior in Spain and Luxembourg using the Theory of Planned Behavior as a framework. The sample was comprised of 613 Spanish (boys = 309, girls = 304; M age =15.28, SD =1.127) and 752 Luxembourgish adolescents (boys = 343, girls = 409; M age = 14.92, SD = 1.198), selected from students of two secondary schools in both countries, with a similar socio-economic status. The initial 43-items were all scored on a 4-point response format using the structured alternative format and translated into Spanish, French and German. In order to ensure the accuracy of the translation, standardized parallel back-translation techniques were employed. Following two pilot tests and subsequent revisions, a second order exploratory factor analysis with oblimin direct rotation was used for factor extraction. Internal consistency and test-retest reliabilities were also tested. The 4-week test-retest correlations confirmed the items' time stability. The same five factors were obtained, explaining 63.76% and 63.64% of the total variance in both samples. Internal consistency for the five factors ranged from α = 0.759 to α = 0. 949 in the Spanish sample and from α = 0.735 to α = 0.952 in the Luxembourgish sample. For both samples, inter-factor correlations were all reported significant and positive, except for Factor 5 where they were significant but negative. The high internal consistency of the subscales, the reported item test-retest reliabilities and the identical factor structure confirm the adequacy of the elaborated questionnaire for assessing the TPB-based constructs when used with a population of adolescents in Spain and Luxembourg. The results give some indication that they may have value in measuring the hypothesized TPB constructs for PA behavior in a cross-cultural context. Key pointsWhen using the structured alternative format, weak internal consistency was obtained. Rephrasing the items and scoring items on a Likert-type scale enhanced greatly the subscales reliability.Identical factorial structure was extracted for both culturally different samples.The obtained factors, namely perceived physical competence, parents' physical activity, perceived resources support, attitude toward physical activity and perceived parental support were hypothesized as for the original TPB constructs.

Modeling of Transient Flow Mixing of Streams Injected into a Mixing Chamber

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Voytovych, Dmytro M.; Merkle, Charles L.; Lucht, Robert P.; Hulka, James R.; Jones, Gregg W.

2006-01-01

Ignition is recognized as one the critical drivers in the reliability of multiple-start rocket engines. Residual combustion products from previous engine operation can condense on valves and related structures thereby creating difficulties for subsequent starting procedures. Alternative ignition methods that require fewer valves can mitigate the valve reliability problem, but require improved understanding of the spatial and temporal propellant distribution in the pre-ignition chamber. Current design tools based mainly on one-dimensional analysis and empirical models cannot predict local details of the injection and ignition processes. The goal of this work is to evaluate the capability of the modern computational fluid dynamics (CFD) tools in predicting the transient flow mixing in pre-ignition environment by comparing the results with the experimental data. This study is a part of a program to improve analytical methods and methodologies to analyze reliability and durability of combustion devices. In the present paper we describe a series of detailed computational simulations of the unsteady mixing events as the cold propellants are first introduced into the chamber as a first step in providing this necessary environmental description. The present computational modeling represents a complement to parallel experimental simulations' and includes comparisons with experimental results from that effort. A large number of rocket engine ignition studies has been previously reported. Here we limit our discussion to the work discussed in Refs. 2, 3 and 4 which is both similar to and different from the present approach. The similarities arise from the fact that both efforts involve detailed experimental/computational simulations of the ignition problem. The differences arise from the underlying philosophy of the two endeavors. The approach in Refs. 2 to 4 is a classical ignition study in which the focus is on the response of a propellant mixture to an ignition source, with emphasis on the level of energy needed for ignition and the ensuing flame propagation issues. Our focus in the present paper is on identifying the unsteady mixing processes that provide the propellant mixture in which the ignition source is to be placed. In particular, we wish to characterize the spatial and temporal mixture distribution with a view toward identifying preferred spatial and temporal locations for the ignition source. As such, the present work is limited to cold flow (pre-ignition) conditions