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Sample records for renal-stone risk assessment

  1. Renal stone risk assessment during Space Shuttle flights

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Whitson, P. A.; Pietrzyk, R. A.; Pak, C. Y.

    1997-01-01

    PURPOSE: The metabolic and environmental factors influencing renal stone formation before, during, and after Space Shuttle flights were assessed. We established the contributing roles of dietary factors in relationship to the urinary risk factors associated with renal stone formation. MATERIALS AND METHODS: 24-hr. urine samples were collected prior to, during space flight, and following landing. Urinary and dietary factors associated with renal stone formation were analyzed and the relative urinary supersaturation of calcium oxalate, calcium phosphate (brushite), sodium urate, struvite and uric acid were calculated. RESULTS: Urinary composition changed during flight to favor the crystallization of calcium-forming salts. Factors that contributed to increased potential for stone formation during space flight were significant reductions in urinary pH and increases in urinary calcium. Urinary output and citrate, a potent inhibitor of calcium-containing stones, were slightly reduced during space flight. Dietary intakes were significantly reduced for a number of variables, including fluid, energy, protein, potassium, phosphorus and magnesium. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first in-flight characterization of the renal stone forming potential in astronauts. With the examination of urinary components and nutritional factors, it was possible to determine the factors that contributed to increased risk or protected from risk. In spite of the protective components, the negative contributions to renal stone risk predominated and resulted in a urinary environment that favored the supersaturation of stone-forming salts. Dietary and pharmacologic therapies need to be assessed to minimize the potential for renal stone formation in astronauts during/after space flight.

  2. Renal-Stone Risk Assessment During Space Shuttle Flights

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Whitson, Peggy A.; Pietrzyk, Robert A.; Pak, Charles Y. C.

    1996-01-01

    The metabolic and environmental factors influencing renal stone formation before, during, and after Space Shuttle flights were assessed. We established the contributing roles of dietary factors in relationship to the urinary risk factors associated with renal stone formation. 24-hr urine samples were collected prior to, during space flight, and following landing. Urinary factors associated with renal stone formation were analyzed and the relative urinary supersaturation ratios of calcium oxalate, calcium phosphate (brushite), sodium urate, struvite and uric acid were calculated. Food and fluid consumption was recorded for a 48-hr period ending with the urine collection. Urinary composition changed during flight to favor the crystallization of stone-forming salts. Factors that contributed to increased potential for stone formation during space flight were significant reductions in urinary pH and increases in urinary calcium. Urinary output and citrate, a potent inhibitor of calcium-containing stones, were slightly reduced during space flight. Dietary intakes were significantly reduced for a number of variables, including fluid, energy, protein, potassium, phosphorus and magnesium. This is the first in-flight characterization of the renal stone forming potential in astronauts. With the examination of urinary components and nutritional factors, it was possible to determine the factors that contributed to increased risk or protected from risk. In spite of the protective components, the negative contributions to renal stone risk predominated and resulted in a urinary environment that favored the supersaturation of stone-forming salts. The importance of the hypercalciuria was noted since renal excretion was high relative to the intake.

  3. Renal Stone Risk During Space Flight: Assessment and Countermeasure Validation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Whitson, P. A.; Sams, C. F.; Jones, J. A.; Pietrzke, R. A.; Nelman-Gonzalez, M. A.; Hudson, E. K.

    2007-01-01

    NASA has focused its future on exploration class missions including the goal of returning to the moon and landing on Mars. With these objectives, humans will experience an extended exposure to the harsh environment of microgravity and the associated negative effects on all the physiological systems of the body. Exposure to microgravity affects human physiology and results in changes to the urinary chemical composition during and after space flight. These changes are associated with an increased risk of renal stone formation. The development of a renal stone would have health consequences for the crewmember and negatively impact the success of the mission. As of January 2007, 15 known symptomatic medical events consistent with urinary calculi have been experienced by 13 U.S. astronauts and Russian cosmonauts. Previous results from both MIR and Shuttle missions have demonstrated an increased risk for renal stone formation. These data have shown decreased urine volume, urinary pH and citrate levels and increased urinary calcium. Citrate, an important urinary inhibitor of calcium-containing renal stones binds with calcium in the urine, thereby reducing the amount of calcium available to form calcium oxalate stones. Urinary citrate also prevents calcium oxalate crystals from aggregating into larger crystals and into renal stones. In addition, citrate makes the urine less acidic which inhibits the development of uric acid stones. Potassium citrate supplementation has been successfully used to treat patients who have formed renal stones. The evaluation of potassium citrate as a countermeasure has been performed during the ISS Expeditions 3-6, 8, 11-13 and is currently in progress during the ISS Expedition 14 mission. Together with the assessment of stone risk and the evaluation of a countermeasure, this investigation provides an educational opportunity to all crewmembers. Individual urinary biochemical profiles are generated and the risk of stone formation is estimated

  4. Renal Stone Risk During Spaceflight: Assessment and Countermeasure Validation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pietrzyk, Robert A.; Whitson, Peggy A.; Sams, Clarence F.; Jones, Jeffery A.; Smith, Scott M.

    2009-01-01

    This viewgraph presentation describes the risks of renal stone formation in manned space flight. The contents include: 1) Risk; 2) Evidence; 3) Nephrolithiasis -A Multifactorial Disease; 4) Symptoms/signs; 5) Urolithiasis and Stone Passage; 6) Study Objectives; 7) Subjects; 8) Methods; 9) Investigation Results; 10) Potassium Citrate; 11) Calcium Balance; 12) Case Study; 13) Significant Findings; 14) Risk Mitigation Strategies and Recommended Actions; and 15) Future Potential.

  5. Renal Stone Risk during Spaceflight: Assessment and Countermeasure Validation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Whitson, Peggy A.; Pietrzyk, Robert A.; Jones, Jeffery A.; Sams, Clarence F.; Hudson, Ed K.; Nelman-Gonzalez, Mayra

    2009-01-01

    NASA's Vision for Space Exploration centers on exploration class missions including the goals of returning to the moon and landing on Mars. One of NASA's objectives is to focus research on astronaut health and the development of countermeasures that will protect crewmembers during long duration voyages. Exposure to microgravity affects human physiology and results in changes in the urinary chemical composition favoring urinary supersaturation and an increased risk of stone formation. Nephrolithiasis is a multifactorial disease and development of a renal stone is significantly influenced by both dietary and environmental factors. Previous results from long duration Mir and short duration Shuttle missions have shown decreased urine volume, pH, and citrate levels and increased calcium. Citrate, an important inhibitor of calcium-containing stones, binds with urinary calcium reducing the amount of calcium available to form stones. Citrate inhibits renal stone recurrence by preventing crystal growth, aggregation, and nucleation and is one of the most common therapeutic agents used to prevent stone formation. Methods: Thirty long duration crewmembers (29 male, 1 female) participated in this study. 24-hour urines were collected and dietary monitoring was performed pre-, in-, and postflight. Crewmembers in the treatment group received two potassium citrate (KCIT) pills, 10 mEq/pill, ingested daily beginning 3 days before launch, all in-flight days and through 14 days postflight. Urinary biochemical and dietary analyses were completed. Results: KCIT treated subjects exhibited decreased urinary calcium excretion and maintained the levels of calcium oxalate supersaturation risk at their preflight levels. The increased urinary pH levels in these subjects reduced the risk of uric acid stones. Discussion: The current study investigated the use of potassium citrate as a countermeasure to minimize the risk of stone formation during ISS missions. Results suggest that supplementation

  6. Renal Stone Risk During Space Flight

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Whitson, Peggy A.; Pietrzyk, Robert A.; Sams, Clarence F.; Pak, Charles Y. C.; Jones, Jeffrey A.

    1999-01-01

    . Dietary modification and promising pharmacologic treatments may also be used to reduce the potential risk for renal stone formation. Potassium citrate is being used clinically to increase the urinary inhibitor levels to minimize the development of crystals and the growth of renal stones. Bisphosphonates are a class of drugs recently shown to help in patients with osteoporosis by inhibiting the loss of bones in elderly patients. This drug could potentially prevent the bone loss observed in astronauts and thereby minimize the increase in urinary calcium and reduce the risk for renal stone development. Results of NASA's renal stone risk assessment program clearly indicate that exposure to microgravity changes the urinary chemical environment such that there is an increased risk for supersaturation of stone-forming salts, including calcium oxalaie and brushite. These studies have indicated specific avenues for development of countermeasures for the increased renal stone risk observed during and following space flight. Increased hydration and implementation of pharmacologic countermeasures should largely mitigate the in-flight risk of renal stones.

  7. E057: Renal Stone Risk Assessment During Space Flight: Assessment and Countermeasure Validation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Whitson, Peggy A.; Pietrzyk, Robert A.; Jones, Jeffrey A.; Sams, Clarence F.

    2001-01-01

    Exposure to the microgravity environment results in many metabolic and physiological changes to humans. Body fluid volumes, electrolyte levels, and bone and muscle undergo changes as the human body adapts to the weightless environment. Changes in the urinary biochemistry occur as early as flight day 3-4 in the short duration Shuttle crewmembers. Significant decreases were observed both in fluid intake and urinary output. Other significant changes were observed in the urinary pH, calcium, potassium and uric acid levels. During Shuttle missions, the risk of calcium oxalate stone formation increased early in the flight, continued at elevated levels throughout the flight and remained in the increased risk range on landing day. The calcium phosphate risk was significantly increased early in-flight and remained significantly elevated throughout the remainder of the mission. Results from the long duration Shuttle-Mir missions followed a similar trend. Most long duration crewmembers demonstrated increased urinary calcium levels despite lower dietary calcium intake. Fluid intake and urine volumes were significantly lower during the flight than during the preflight. The calcium oxalate risk was increased relative to the preflight levels during the early in-flight period and continued in the elevated risk range for the remainder of the space flight and through two weeks postflight. Calcium phosphate risk for these long duration crewmembers increased during flight and remained in the increased risk range throughout the flight and following landing. The complexity, expense and visibility of the human space program require that every effort be made to protect the health of the crewmembers and ensure the success of the mission. Results from our early investigations clearly indicate that exposure to the microgravity environment of space significantly increases the risk of renal stone formation. The early studies have indicated specific avenues for development of countermeasures

  8. Alterations in renal stone risk factors after space flight

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Whitson, P. A.; Pietrzyk, R. A.; Pak, C. Y.; Cintron, N. M.

    1993-01-01

    Exposure to the microgravity environment of space produces a number of physiological changes of metabolic and environmental origin that could increase the potential for renal stone formation. Metabolic, environmental and physicochemical factors that influence renal stone risk potential were examined in 24-hour urine samples from astronauts 10 days before launch and on landing day to provide an immediate postflight assessment of these factors. In addition, comparisons were made between male and female crewmembers, and between crewmembers on missions of less than 6 days and those on 6 to 10-day missions. Results suggest that immediately after space flight the risk of calcium oxalate and uric acid stone formation is increased as a result of metabolic (hypercalciuria, hypocitraturia, pH) and environmental (lower urine volume) derangements, some of which could reflect residual effects of having been exposed to microgravity.

  9. Sex‐specific responses of bone metabolism and renal stone risk during bed rest

    PubMed Central

    Morgan, Jennifer L. L.; Heer, Martina; Hargens, Alan R.; Macias, Brandon R.; Hudson, Edgar K.; Shackelford, Linda C.; Zwart, Sara R.; Smith, Scott M.

    2014-01-01

    Abstract The purpose of this study was to directly assess sex differences in bone loss, bone biochemistry, and renal stone risk in bed rest. Bed rest simulates some spaceflight effects on human physiology and can be used to address the potential existence of sex‐specific effects on bone metabolism and renal stone risk in space. We combined data from the control subjects in five head‐down‐tilt bed rest studies (combined n = 50 men, 24 women) of differing durations (14–90 days). All subjects were healthy volunteers. Mean age was 35 ± 9 years for women and 33 ± 8 years for men. The main outcome measures were bone density and biochemistry, and renal stone risk chemistry. Before bed rest began, men had higher bone mineral density and content (P < 0.001), and excreted more biomarkers of bone resorption and calcium per day than did women (P < 0.05). These differences remained during bed rest. A number of urine chemistry analytes increased (e.g., calcium) or decreased (e.g., sodium, citrate, and urine volume) significantly for men and women during bed rest. These changes may predispose men to higher stone risk. Men and women do not have substantially different responses to the skeletal unloading of bed rest. PMID:25107989

  10. The risk of renal stone formation during and after long duration space flight

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Whitson, P. A.; Pietrzyk, R. A.; Morukov, B. V.; Sams, C. F.

    2001-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The formation of a renal stone during space flight may have serious negative effects on the health of the crewmember and the success of the mission. Urinary biochemical factors and the influence of dietary factors associated with renal stone development were assessed during long duration Mir Space Station missions. METHODS: Twenty-four-hour urine samples were collected prior to, during and following long duration space flight. The relative urinary supersaturation of calcium oxalate, calcium phosphate (brushite), sodium urate, struvite and uric acid were determined. RESULTS: Changes in the urinary biochemistry of crewmembers during long duration spaceflight demonstrated increases in the supersaturation of the stone-forming salts. In-flight hypercalciuria was evident in a number of individual crewmembers and 24-hour dietary fluid intake and urine volume were significantly lower. During flight, there was a significant increase in brushite supersaturation. CONCLUSIONS: These data suggest acute effects of space flight and postflight changes in the urinary biochemistry favoring increased crystallization in the urine. The effects of dietary intake, especially fluid intake, may have a significant impact on the potential for renal stone formation. Efforts are now underway to assess the efficacy of a countermeasure to mitigate the increased risk. Copyright 2001 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  11. Protecting Space Travelers from Kidney Stones: Renal Stone Risk During Space Flight

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Whitson, Peggy; Bloomberg, Jacob; Lee, Angie (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    Renal stones, popularly known as kidney or bladder stones, are small rock-like objects formed in the kidneys or urinary tract by deposits of calcium and other minerals. The problem arises when the stones block the drainage of the kidney, resulting in urinary obstruction and pain. Passing these stones can be one of the most painful experiences a person will endure so doctors often prescribe pain relievers to ease the experience. Drinking plenty of fluids, which help flush waste out of the body, and eating a well-balanced diet are the first steps to preventing stones. For individuals at risk, this may not be enough, and a doctor may recommend a special diet and medications. Unfortunately, approximately 60 percent of people who have had a renal stone will experience a recurrence. This is particularly true of men, who are four to five times more likely to develop stones than women. Renal stones do not discriminate based on age; even children are at risk. Astronauts are particularly at risk of developing renal stones because they lose bone and muscle mass; calcium, other minerals, and protein normally used for bone and muscle end up in the bloodstream and then in the kidneys. Without plenty of fluid to wash them away, crystals can form and then grow into stones. This factor compounds the risk for astronauts, since they also perceive that they are less thirsty in space and will drink less than normal during the mission. To minimize all of these factors, doctors must instead treat the stone-forming compounds with medication. This study will use potassium citrate to reduce the risk of stone formation. Renal stones are never convenient, but they are a particular concern for astronauts who have limited access to treatment during flight. Researchers are examining how earthbound preventions for renal stone formation work in flight, ensuring missions are not ended prematurely due to this medical condition. During STS-107, earthbound preventions and treatments become astronauts

  12. Bone metabolism and renal stone risk during International Space Station missions.

    PubMed

    Smith, Scott M; Heer, Martina; Shackelford, Linda C; Sibonga, Jean D; Spatz, Jordan; Pietrzyk, Robert A; Hudson, Edgar K; Zwart, Sara R

    2015-12-01

    Bone loss and renal stone risk are longstanding concerns for astronauts. Bone resorption brought on by spaceflight elevates urinary calcium and the risk of renal stone formation. Loss of bone calcium leads to concerns about fracture risk and increased long-term risk of osteoporosis. Bone metabolism involves many factors and is interconnected with muscle metabolism and diet. We report here bone biochemistry and renal stone risk data from astronauts on 4- to 6-month International Space Station missions. All had access to a type of resistive exercise countermeasure hardware, either the Advanced Resistance Exercise Device (ARED) or the Interim Resistance Exercise Device (iRED). A subset of the ARED group also tested the bisphosphonate alendronate as a potential anti-resorptive countermeasure (Bis+ARED). While some of the basic bone marker data have been published, we provide here a more comprehensive evaluation of bone biochemistry with a larger group of astronauts. Regardless of exercise, the risk of renal stone formation increased during spaceflight. A key factor in this increase was urine volume, which was lower during flight in all groups at all time points. Thus, the easiest way to mitigate renal stone risk is to increase fluid consumption. ARED use increased bone formation without changing bone resorption, and mitigated a drop in parathyroid hormone in iRED astronauts. Sclerostin, an osteocyte-derived negative regulator of bone formation, increased 10-15% in both groups of astronauts who used the ARED (p<0.06). IGF-1, which regulates bone growth and formation, increased during flight in all 3 groups (p<0.001). Our results are consistent with the growing body of literature showing that the hyper-resorptive state of bone that is brought on by spaceflight can be countered pharmacologically or mitigated through an exercise-induced increase in bone formation, with nutritional support. Key questions remain about the effect of exercise-induced alterations in bone

  13. Bone metabolism and renal stone risk during International Space Station missions.

    PubMed

    Smith, Scott M; Heer, Martina; Shackelford, Linda C; Sibonga, Jean D; Spatz, Jordan; Pietrzyk, Robert A; Hudson, Edgar K; Zwart, Sara R

    2015-12-01

    Bone loss and renal stone risk are longstanding concerns for astronauts. Bone resorption brought on by spaceflight elevates urinary calcium and the risk of renal stone formation. Loss of bone calcium leads to concerns about fracture risk and increased long-term risk of osteoporosis. Bone metabolism involves many factors and is interconnected with muscle metabolism and diet. We report here bone biochemistry and renal stone risk data from astronauts on 4- to 6-month International Space Station missions. All had access to a type of resistive exercise countermeasure hardware, either the Advanced Resistance Exercise Device (ARED) or the Interim Resistance Exercise Device (iRED). A subset of the ARED group also tested the bisphosphonate alendronate as a potential anti-resorptive countermeasure (Bis+ARED). While some of the basic bone marker data have been published, we provide here a more comprehensive evaluation of bone biochemistry with a larger group of astronauts. Regardless of exercise, the risk of renal stone formation increased during spaceflight. A key factor in this increase was urine volume, which was lower during flight in all groups at all time points. Thus, the easiest way to mitigate renal stone risk is to increase fluid consumption. ARED use increased bone formation without changing bone resorption, and mitigated a drop in parathyroid hormone in iRED astronauts. Sclerostin, an osteocyte-derived negative regulator of bone formation, increased 10-15% in both groups of astronauts who used the ARED (p<0.06). IGF-1, which regulates bone growth and formation, increased during flight in all 3 groups (p<0.001). Our results are consistent with the growing body of literature showing that the hyper-resorptive state of bone that is brought on by spaceflight can be countered pharmacologically or mitigated through an exercise-induced increase in bone formation, with nutritional support. Key questions remain about the effect of exercise-induced alterations in bone

  14. Estimating the Risk of Renal Stone Events During Long-Duration Spaceflight

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Reyes, David; Kerstman, Eric; Locke, James

    2014-01-01

    Introduction: Given the bone loss and increased urinary calcium excretion in the microgravity environment, persons participating in long-duration spaceflight may have an increased risk for renal stone formation. Renal stones are often an incidental finding of abdominal imaging studies done for other reasons. Thus, some crewmembers may have undiscovered, asymptomatic stones prior to their mission. Methods: An extensive literature search was conducted concerning the natural history of asymptomatic renal stones. For comparison, simulations were done using the Integrated Medical Model (IMM). The IMM is an evidence-based decision support tool that provides risk analysis and has the capability to optimize medical systems for missions by minimizing the occurrence of adverse mission outcomes such as evacuation and loss of crew life within specified mass and volume constraints. Results: The literature of the natural history of asymptomatic renal stones in the general medical population shows that the probability of symptomatic event is 8% to 34% at 1 to 3 years for stones < 7 mm. Extrapolated to a 6-month mission, for stones < 5 to 7 mm, the risk for any stone event is about 4 to 6%, with a 0.7% to 4% risk for intervention, respectively. IMM simulations compare favorably with risk estimates garnered from the terrestrial literature. The IMM forecasts that symptomatic renal stones may be one of the top drivers for medical evacuation of an International Space Station (ISS) mission. Discussion: Although the likelihood of a stone event is low, the consequences could be severe due to limitations of current ISS medical capabilities. Therefore, these risks need to be quantified to aid planning, limit crew morbidity and mitigate mission impacts. This will be especially critical for missions beyond earth orbit, where evacuation may not be an option.

  15. Mathematical model to estimate risk of calcium-containing renal stones

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pietrzyk, R. A.; Feiveson, A. H.; Whitson, P. A.

    1999-01-01

    BACKGROUND/AIMS: Astronauts exposed to microgravity during the course of spaceflight undergo physiologic changes that alter the urinary environment so as to increase the risk of renal stone formation. This study was undertaken to identify a simple method with which to evaluate the potential risk of renal stone development during spaceflight. METHOD: We used a large database of urinary risk factors obtained from 323 astronauts before and after spaceflight to generate a mathematical model with which to predict the urinary supersaturation of calcium stone forming salts. RESULT: This model, which involves the fewest possible analytical variables (urinary calcium, citrate, oxalate, phosphorus, and total volume), reliably and accurately predicted the urinary supersaturation of the calcium stone forming salts when compared to results obtained from a group of 6 astronauts who collected urine during flight. CONCLUSIONS: The use of this model will simplify both routine medical monitoring during spaceflight as well as the evaluation of countermeasures designed to minimize renal stone development. This model also can be used for Earth-based applications in which access to analytical resources is limited.

  16. Use of Potassium Citrate to Reduce the Risk of Renal Stone Formation During Spaceflight

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Whitson, P. A.; Pietrzyk, R. A.; Sams, C. F.; Jones, J. A.; Nelman-Gonzalez, M.; Hudson, E. K.

    2008-01-01

    Introduction: NASA s Vision for Space Exploration centers on exploration class missions including the goals of returning to the moon and landing on Mars. One of NASA s objectives is to focus research on astronaut health and the development of countermeasures that will protect crewmembers during long duration voyages. Exposure to microgravity affects human physiology and results in changes in the urinary chemical composition favoring urinary supersaturation and an increased risk of stone formation. Nephrolithiasis is a multifactorial disease and development of a renal stone is significantly influenced by both dietary and environmental factors. Previous results from long duration Mir and short duration Shuttle missions have shown decreased urine volume, pH, and citrate levels and increased calcium. Citrate, an important inhibitor of calcium-containing stones, binds with urinary calcium reducing the amount of calcium available to form stones. Citrate inhibits renal stone recurrence by preventing crystal growth, aggregation, and nucleation and is one of the most common therapeutic agents used to prevent stone formation. Methods: Thirty long duration crewmembers (29 male, 1 female) participated in this study. 24-hour urines were collected and dietary monitoring was performed pre, in, and postflight. Crewmembers in the treatment group received two potassium citrate (KCIT) pills, 10 mEq/pill, ingested daily beginning 3 days before launch, all inflight days and through 14 days postflight. Urinary biochemical and dietary analyses were completed. Results: KCIT treated subjects exhibited decreased urinary calcium excretion and maintained the levels of calcium oxalate supersaturation risk at their preflight levels. The increased urinary pH levels in these subjects reduced the risk of uric acid stones. Discussion: The current study investigated the use of potassium citrate as a countermeasure to minimize the risk of stone formation during ISS missions. Results suggest that

  17. Renal stones in pregnancy

    PubMed Central

    Gibbons, Norma; DasGupta, Ranan

    2014-01-01

    Diagnosis and treatment of renal stones during pregnancy is a complex problem. Risks to the fetus from ionising radiation and interventional procedures need to be balanced with optimising clinical care for the mother. Management of such patients requires a clear understanding of available options, with a multidisciplinary team approach. In this review, we discuss the role of different diagnostic tests including ultrasound, magnetic resonance urography, and computerized tomography. We also provide an update on recent developments in the treatment of renal stones during pregnancy. Expectant management remains first-line treatment. Where definitive treatment of the stone is required, new evidence suggests that ureteroscopic stone removal may be equally safe, and possibly better than traditional temporising procedures. PMID:27512433

  18. Estimating the Rate of Occurrence of Renal Stones in Astronauts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Myers, J.; Goodenow, D.; Gokoglu, S.; Kassemi, M.

    2016-01-01

    Changes in urine chemistry, during and post flight, potentially increases the risk of renal stones in astronauts. Although much is known about the effects of space flight on urine chemistry, no inflight incidence of renal stones in US astronauts exists and the question "How much does this risk change with space flight?" remains difficult to accurately quantify. In this discussion, we tackle this question utilizing a combination of deterministic and probabilistic modeling that implements the physics behind free stone growth and agglomeration, speciation of urine chemistry and published observations of population renal stone incidences to estimate changes in the rate of renal stone presentation. The modeling process utilizes a Population Balance Equation based model developed in the companion IWS abstract by Kassemi et al. (2016) to evaluate the maximum growth and agglomeration potential from a specified set of urine chemistry values. Changes in renal stone occurrence rates are obtained from this model in a probabilistic simulation that interrogates the range of possible urine chemistries using Monte Carlo techniques. Subsequently, each randomly sampled urine chemistry undergoes speciation analysis using the well-established Joint Expert Speciation System (JESS) code to calculate critical values, such as ionic strength and relative supersaturation. The Kassemi model utilizes this information to predict the mean and maximum stone size. We close the assessment loop by using a transfer function that estimates the rate of stone formation from combining the relative supersaturation and both the mean and maximum free stone growth sizes. The transfer function is established by a simulation analysis which combines population stone formation rates and Poisson regression. Training this transfer function requires using the output of the aforementioned assessment steps with inputs from known non-stone-former and known stone-former urine chemistries. Established in a Monte Carlo

  19. Effects of calcium supplements on the risk of renal stone formation in a population with low oxalate intake.

    PubMed

    Stitchantrakul, Wasana; Sopassathit, Wichai; Prapaipanich, Surasing; Domrongkitchaiporn, Somnuek

    2004-12-01

    It has been speculated that calcium supplement in subjects with low oxalate intake might increase the risk of calcium stone formation due to an increase in calcium absorption without a significant reduction in oxalate absorption. There have been no human studies addressing specifically the effects of taking calcium supplements in populations whose dietary oxalate is low. This study was conducted to determine the effects of calcium supplements on the risk of calcium stone formation in a population with low oxalate intake. Thirty-two healthy male navy privates, 22.7 +/- 1.9 (mean +/- SD) years old, who had oxalate intake of less than 1 mmol/day, a serum creatinine of less than 150 micromol/l, and no history of renal stones, participated in the study. Dietary oxalate was controlled to be under 1 mmol/day throughout the study. Twenty-four hour urine collections for the determination of urinary constituents were obtained at baseline and after taking calcium supplements. Detection of calcium oxalate was performed to assess the risk of calcium oxalate stone formation. The urinary excretion of calcium was significantly elevated above baseline values while taking the calcium supplements (3.48 +/- 2.13 vs 5.17 +/- 2.61 mmol/d, p < 0.05) and urinary oxalate was significantly decreased when the subjects took calcium supplements compared to the corresponding baseline value (0.13 +/- 0.05 vs 0.17 +/- 0.07 mmol/d, p = 0.01). Urinary citrate was significantly elevated when the subjects took calcium supplements compared to the baseline (0.83 +/- 0.57 vs 0.64 +/- 0.39 mmol/d, p = 0.03). There was no significant alteration in the activity products of calcium oxalate while taking the calcium supplements (0.54 +/- 0.25 vs 0.57 +/- 0.22, p = 0.54). The effect of calcium supplements with meals, for the reduction of the risk of calcium stone formation, was unchanged, even in a population whose oxalate intake is rather low. Taking calcium supplements resulted in a reduction in urinary

  20. [Management of renal stones].

    PubMed

    Lechevallier, E; Traxer, O; Saussine, C

    2008-12-01

    The management of renal stones needs a recent and good quality imaging. Contrast medium injection is optional. Extracorporeal shockwave lithotripsy (ESWL) is the most common treatment of renal stones. ESWL is indicated as first line treatment for less than 1.5cm stones. The stone-free (SF) rate at 3 months of ESWL is 70-80%. Results of ESWL for stones with more than 1000UH density or located in the lower calyx are poor. Flexible ureteroscopy (URS) is indicated in case of ESWL failure or for hyperdense, 1-2cm stones. The SF rate of flexible is 80%. Percutaneous nephrolithotomy is indicated for complex or more than 2cm stones. Asymptomatic and non infected stones, especially if located in the lower calyx, do not need urological treatment but must be followed up. In all cases, renal stones needs a metabolic evaluation and treatment, and annual follow-up.

  1. Monitoring for Renal Stone Recurrence in Astronauts With History of Stone

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Reyes, David P.; Sargsyan, Ashot; Locke, James; Davis, Jeffrey

    2014-01-01

    After an initial stone episode persons are at increased risk for future stone formation. A systematic approach is required to monitor the efficacy of treatment and preventive measures, and to assess the risk of developing new stones. This is important for persons working in critical jobs or austere environments, such as astronauts. A literature review of the current standards of care for renal stone monitoring and imaging was done. Military and civil aviation standards were also reviewed, as well as the medical precedents from the space program. Additionally, a new, more effective, renal stone ultrasound protocol has been developed. Using this work, a monitoring algorithm was proposed that takes into consideration the unique mission and operational environment of spaceflight. The approach to imaging persons with history of renal stones varies widely in the literature. Imaging is often done yearly or biannually, which may be too long for mission critical personnel. In the proposed algorithm astronauts with a history of renal stone, who may be under consideration for assignment, are imaged by a detailed, physiciandriven, ultrasound protocol. Unassigned personnel are monitored by yearly ultrasound and urine studies. Any positive ultrasound study is then followed by low-dose renal computed tomography scan. Other criteria are also established. The proposed algorithm provides a balanced approach between efficacy and reduced radiation exposure for the monitoring of astronauts with a renal stone history. This may eventually allow a transition from a risk-averse, to a risk-modifying approach that can enable continued service of individuals with history of renal stone that have adequately controlled risk factors.

  2. The preservation of urine samples for determination of renal stone risk factors

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nicar, M. J.; Hsu, M. C.; Johnson, T.; Pak, C. Y.

    1987-01-01

    A preservation technique for urine specimens before determination of stone risk factors was evaluated. The purpose of these experiments was to prove the effectiveness of the preservatives used to prevent changes in the concentrations of those constituents measured. Measured concentrations in fresh specimens were compared with those in the same specimens after storage with the preservatives. Refrigeration at 4 degrees C up to five days was appropriate in a laboratory setting, as no significant changes in urinary concentrations occurred. Refrigeration, however, did not offer a convenient method for shipping. Chemical preservation was found to be an effective alternative to refrigeration. Thymol prevented changes in concentration of pH, citrate, uric acid, sulfate, sodium, potassium, and cyclic AMP, while a mixture of hydrochloric (HCl) acid and boric acid prevented changes in calcium, magnesium, phosphorus, oxalate, ammonium, and creatinine. Thus, the addition of thymol or HCl/boric acid to urine specimens will prevent significant changes in the concentrations of stone risk factors.

  3. Probabilistic Modeling of the Renal Stone Formation Module

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Best, Lauren M.; Myers, Jerry G.; Goodenow, Debra A.; McRae, Michael P.; Jackson, Travis C.

    2013-01-01

    The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a probabilistic tool, used in mission planning decision making and medical systems risk assessments. The IMM project maintains a database of over 80 medical conditions that could occur during a spaceflight, documenting an incidence rate and end case scenarios for each. In some cases, where observational data are insufficient to adequately define the inflight medical risk, the IMM utilizes external probabilistic modules to model and estimate the event likelihoods. One such medical event of interest is an unpassed renal stone. Due to a high salt diet and high concentrations of calcium in the blood (due to bone depletion caused by unloading in the microgravity environment) astronauts are at a considerable elevated risk for developing renal calculi (nephrolithiasis) while in space. Lack of observed incidences of nephrolithiasis has led HRP to initiate the development of the Renal Stone Formation Module (RSFM) to create a probabilistic simulator capable of estimating the likelihood of symptomatic renal stone presentation in astronauts on exploration missions. The model consists of two major parts. The first is the probabilistic component, which utilizes probability distributions to assess the range of urine electrolyte parameters and a multivariate regression to transform estimated crystal density and size distributions to the likelihood of the presentation of nephrolithiasis symptoms. The second is a deterministic physical and chemical model of renal stone growth in the kidney developed by Kassemi et al. The probabilistic component of the renal stone model couples the input probability distributions describing the urine chemistry, astronaut physiology, and system parameters with the physical and chemical outputs and inputs to the deterministic stone growth model. These two parts of the model are necessary to capture the uncertainty in the likelihood estimate. The model will be driven by Monte Carlo simulations, continuously

  4. Management of Asymptomatic Renal Stones in Astronauts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Reyes, David; Locke, James

    2016-01-01

    Introduction: Management guidelines were created to screen and manage asymptomatic renal stones in U.S. astronauts. The risks for renal stone formation in astronauts due to bone loss and hypercalcuria are unknown. Astronauts have a stone risk which is about the same as commercial aviation pilots, which is about half that of the general population. However, proper management of this condition is still crucial to mitigate health and mission risks in the spaceflight environment. Methods: An extensive review of the literature and current aeromedical standards for the monitoring and management of renal stones was done. The NASA Flight Medicine Clinic's electronic medical record and Longitudinal Survey of Astronaut Health were also reviewed. Using this work, a screening and management algorithm was created that takes into consideration the unique operational environment of spaceflight. Results: Renal stone screening and management guidelines for astronauts were created based on accepted standards of care, with consideration to the environment of spaceflight. In the proposed algorithm, all astronauts will receive a yearly screening ultrasound for renal calcifications, or mineralized renal material (MRM). Any areas of MRM, 3 millimeters or larger, are considered a positive finding. Three millimeters approaches the detection limit of standard ultrasound, and several studies have shown that any stone that is 3 millimeters or less has an approximately 95 percent chance of spontaneous passage. For mission-assigned astronauts, any positive ultrasound study is followed by low-dose renal computed tomography (CT) scan, and flexible ureteroscopy if CT is positive. Other specific guidelines were also created. Discussion: The term "MRM" is used to account for small areas of calcification that may be outside the renal collecting system, and allows objectivity without otherwise constraining the diagnostic and treatment process for potentially very small calcifications of uncertain

  5. Screening and Management of Asymptomatic Renal Stones in Astronauts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Reyes, David; Locke, James; Sargsyan, Ashot; Garcia, Kathleen

    2017-01-01

    Management guidelines were created to screen and manage asymptomatic renal stones in U.S. astronauts. The true risk for renal stone formation in astronauts due to the space flight environment is unknown. Proper management of this condition is crucial to mitigate health and mission risks. The NASA Flight Medicine Clinic electronic medical record and the Lifetime Surveillance of Astronaut Health databases were reviewed. An extensive review of the literature and current aeromedical standards for the monitoring and management of renal stones was also done. This work was used to develop a screening and management protocol for renal stones in astronauts that is relevant to the spaceflight operational environment. In the proposed guidelines all astronauts receive a yearly screening and post-flight renal ultrasound using a novel ultrasound protocol. The ultrasound protocol uses a combination of factors, including: size, position, shadow, twinkle and dispersion properties to confirm the presence of a renal calcification. For mission-assigned astronauts, any positive ultrasound study is followed by a low-dose renal computed tomography scan and urologic consult. Other specific guidelines were also created. A small asymptomatic renal stone within the renal collecting system may become symptomatic at any time, and therefore affect launch and flight schedules, or cause incapacitation during a mission. Astronauts in need of definitive care can be evacuated from the International Space Station, but for deep space missions evacuation is impossible. The new screening and management algorithm has been implemented and the initial round of screening ultrasounds is under way. Data from these exams will better define the incidence of renal stones in U.S. astronauts, and will be used to inform risk mitigation for both short and long duration spaceflights.

  6. A Guideline for the Management of Renal Stones in Astronauts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Reyes, David; Locke, James; Johnston, Smith

    2014-01-01

    There are no specific guidelines for the management of renal stones in astronauts. Given the increased risk for bone loss, hypercalcuria, and stone formation due to microgravity, a clinical practice guideline is needed. Methods An extensive review of the literature and current aeromedical standards for the management of renal stones was done. The NASA Flight Medicine Clinic's electronic medical record and Longitudinal Survey of Astronaut Health were also reviewed. This information was used to create an algorithm for the management of renal stones in astronauts. Results Guidelines are proposed based on accepted standards of care, with consideration to the environment of spaceflight. In a usual medical setting, asymptomatic, small stones less than 7 mm are often observed over time. Given the constraints of schedule, and the risks to crew health and mission, this approach is too liberal. An upper limit of 3 mm stone diameter was adopted before requiring intervention, because this is the largest size that has a significant chance of spontaneous passage on its own. Other specific guidelines were also created. Discussion The spaceflight environment requires more aggressive treatment than would otherwise be found with the usual practice of medicine. A small stone can become a major problem because it may ultimately require medical evacuation from orbit. Thus renal stones are a significant mission threat and should be managed in a systematic way to mitigate risks to crew health and mission success.

  7. Nutrition and renal stone disease in space

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zerwekh, Joseph E.

    2002-01-01

    There is a growing body of evidence from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and the Russian space program showing that humans exposed to the microgravity environment of space have a greater risk for developing renal stones. Increased bone resorption and the attendant hypercalciuria and hyperphosphaturia contribute significantly to raising the urinary state of saturation with respect to the calcium salts, namely calcium oxalate and calcium phosphate. In addition, other environmental and dietary factors may adversely affect urine composition and increase stone formation risk during space flight. For example, reductions in urinary volume, pH, and citrate contribute to raising stone formation risk. In addition to raising the risk for calcium stone formation, this metabolic profile is conducive to the formation of uric acid stones. Although observations to date have suggested that there may actually be a reduced food intake during the early phase of flight, crew members on longer-duration flights may increase food intake and be at increased risk for stone formation. Taken together, these findings support the use of nutritional recommendations for crew members that would serve to reduce the stone-forming propensity of the urinary environment. Pharmacologic intervention should be directed at raising urinary volumes, diminishing bone losses, and preventing reductions in urinary pH and citrate. Success in reducing the risk for stone formation in astronauts would also be of potential major benefit to the estimated 20 million Americans with nephrolithiasis.

  8. Trace element relations to renal stones phases

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paluszkiewicz, C.; Kwiatek, W. M.; Gazilka, M.

    1990-04-01

    The renal stones formation is still not well known and seems to be a very complex phenomenon. Therefore, the renal stones were analyzed by the Fourier Transform InfraRed (FTIR) spectroscopy as well as by the Proton Induced X-ray Emission (PIXE) method. Using FTIR the samples were grouped into 5 types: phosphates, mixture of phosphates and oxalates, oxalates, mixture of oxalates and uric acid, and uric acid. PIXE was used to determine Trace Element (TE) contents. The combination of the two analysis methods enables us to find some TE relations to different renal stones phases. In general it appeared that TE contents in mixed structures are always between values of the respective pure phases. It was also found that some of the toxic elements are related to the structures but not necessarily to environmental influences as in the case of lead. All data were statistically analyzed and the correalations of the elements are presented.

  9. Managing acute and chronic renal stone disease.

    PubMed

    Moran, Conor P; Courtney, Aisling E

    2016-02-01

    Nephrolithiasis, or renal stone disease, is common and the incidence is increasing globally. In the UK the lifetime risk is estimated to be 8-10%. On a population level, the increase in stone incidence, erosion of gender disparity, and younger age of onset is likely to reflect increasing prevalence of obesity and a Western diet with a high intake of animal protein and salt. Stones can be detected by a variety of imaging techniques. The gold standard is a non-contrast CT of kidneys, ureters and bladder (CT KUB) which can identify > 99% of stones. CT KUB should be the primary mode of imaging for all patients with colic unless contraindicated. In such instances, or if a CT KUB is not available, an ultrasound KUB is an alternative. This has advantages in terms of radiation exposure and cost, but is limited in sensitivity, particularly for ureteric stones. Once diagnosed, a plain film KUB can be used for follow-up of radiopaque stones. For most patients diclofenac is a reasonable first choice of analgesia, e.g. 50-100 mg rectally, or 75 mg IM. Opioid medication can worsen nausea and be less effective, but should be used if there is a contraindication to NSAIDs. A combination of diclofenac, paracetamol, and/or codeine regularly can provide adequate pain control in many cases. Failure of this analgesic combination should prompt consideration of secondary care support. If a ureteric stone < 5 mm in diameter is identified, the expectation is that this will pass without intervention. Initially medical management is still useful for stones between 5 and 10mm in diameter, but urology input is more likely to be necessary as up to 50% of these may require intervention. Stones that are >10 mm in diameter should be discussed with the urology service as they are unlikely to pass spontaneously.

  10. Alterations in circadian rhythmicity in calcium oxalate renal stone formers.

    PubMed

    Touitou, Y; Touitou, C; Charransol, G; Reinberg, A; Thomas, J; Bogdan, A; Barthelemy, C; Desgrez, P

    1983-01-01

    The circadian (circannual for oxalic acid) variations of 13 urinary variables (volume, creatinine, calcium, oxalic acid, glycolic acid, 17-ketosteroids, 17-hydroxycorticosteroids, phosphates, urea, uric acid, chloride, sodium, and potassium) have been documented in 7 calcium oxalate renal stone formers and 7 healthy men (control group). Urine was collected every 4 h over a period of 24 h. All subjects had the same synchronization: diurnal activity from 07(00) to 23(00) +/- 1 h and nocturnal rest; meals were given at fixed clock hours (08(00), 12(30) and 20(00) +/- 1 h). A statistically-significant rhythm (p less than 0.05) was validated for all variables except urea and calcium in healthy men. In renal stone formers, 6 variables (calcium, oxalic acid, and glycolic acid in particular) had no detectable circadian rhythm. However, a periodicity of c. 8 h (ultradian rhythm) was demonstrated for calcium and oxalic acid with peaks being located around 02(00), 10(00), and 18(00). No circannual variations in oxalic acid output could be observed. The present study shows an alteration of the periodicity of calcium and oxalic metabolisms, i.e. the loss of a circadian (24-h) rhythm and the occurrence of an ultradian rhythm of 8 h. The risk of calcium-oxalate crystallisation appears thus greater at 02(00), 10(00), and 18(00). Furthermore, any study dealing with oxalic acid excretion should state the season of urine collection when comparing renal stone formers and healthy subjects, as significant differences in oxaluria may appear during the summer months and not during the rest of the year. PMID:6862698

  11. Analysis of renal stones by capillary isotachophoresis.

    PubMed

    Jarolímová, Zdeňka; Lubal, Přemysl; Kanický, Viktor

    2012-08-30

    An analytical method for the determination of the composition of renal stones by capillary isotachophoresis with conductometric detection was developed. Using different leading/terminating electrolyte systems, the qualitative and quantitative analysis of organic compounds (urate, xanthate, oxalate) and inorganic ions (phosphate, Ca(2+), Mg(2+), Na(+), NH(4)(+)) species commonly present in mixed renal stones in three separate steps can be carried out with limits of detection about 10 μmol/L. The developed method was validated by the analysis of real samples and can be used for urinary calculi classification. In addition, it was verified that this method can also be employed for the determination of the above mentioned analytes in some other samples (bones, teeth) concerning apatite biominerals (fluoro-, carbonate-, chloro-apatite). PMID:22939127

  12. Medical management of renal stones.

    PubMed

    Morgan, Monica S C; Pearle, Margaret S

    2016-01-01

    The prevalence of kidney stones is increasing in industrialized nations, resulting in a corresponding rise in economic burden. Nephrolithiasis is now recognized as both a chronic and systemic condition, which further underscores the impact of the disease. Diet and environment play an important role in stone disease, presumably by modulating urine composition. Dietary modification as a preventive treatment to decrease lithogenic risk factors and prevent stone recurrence has gained interest because of its potential to be safer and more economical than drug treatment. However, not all abnormalities are likely to be amenable to dietary therapy, and in some cases drugs are necessary to reduce the risk of stone formation. Unfortunately, no new drugs have been developed for stone prevention since the 1980s when potassium citrate was introduced, perhaps because the long observation period needed to demonstrate efficacy discourages investigators from embarking on clinical trials. Nonetheless, effective established treatment regimens are currently available for stone prevention. PMID:26977089

  13. Medical management of renal stones.

    PubMed

    Morgan, Monica S C; Pearle, Margaret S

    2016-01-01

    The prevalence of kidney stones is increasing in industrialized nations, resulting in a corresponding rise in economic burden. Nephrolithiasis is now recognized as both a chronic and systemic condition, which further underscores the impact of the disease. Diet and environment play an important role in stone disease, presumably by modulating urine composition. Dietary modification as a preventive treatment to decrease lithogenic risk factors and prevent stone recurrence has gained interest because of its potential to be safer and more economical than drug treatment. However, not all abnormalities are likely to be amenable to dietary therapy, and in some cases drugs are necessary to reduce the risk of stone formation. Unfortunately, no new drugs have been developed for stone prevention since the 1980s when potassium citrate was introduced, perhaps because the long observation period needed to demonstrate efficacy discourages investigators from embarking on clinical trials. Nonetheless, effective established treatment regimens are currently available for stone prevention.

  14. The association between renal stone disease and cholesterol gallstones: the easy to believe and not hard to retrieve theory of the metabolic syndrome.

    PubMed

    Ahmed, Mohamed H; Barakat, Salma; Almobarak, Ahmed O

    2014-07-01

    Renal stone disease and gallstone disease are widely prevalent and costly disease across the globe. Both renal stone disease and gallstone disease are associated with a variety of diseases including obesity, metabolic syndrome, dyslipidemia, hypertension, insulin resistance diabetes and gout. Importantly, the presence of either renal stone disease or gallstone disease is associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular disease. In a recent study of the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC), individuals with a history of gallstones were 54% more likely to report a history of nephrolithiasis after adjusting for age, gender, body size and other factors. Furthermore, in three large cohorts including over 240,000 subjects: the Nurses' Health Studies (NHS) I and II and the Health Professionals Follow-up Study (HPFS), showed that gallstone disease is independently associated with nephrolithiasis. The mechanisms linking gallstone disease and renal stone disease are complex and not yet established. Insulin resistance, lithogenic diets, alterations of transporters in gallbladder and urinary system, and pH are possible potential mechanisms for future exploration. How the liver communicates with kidney in individuals with renal stone disease and gallstone disease is not well known and whether this communication is similar as in hepto-renal syndrome is subject for future research. Further research is needed to determine: (i) the underlying mechanisms of renal stone disease and gallstone disease; (ii) the potential treatment of renal stone disease and gallstone disease.

  15. Renal stone disease and obesity: what is important for urologists and nephrologists?

    PubMed

    Ahmed, Mohamed H; Ahmed, Hassan T; Khalil, Atif A

    2012-01-01

    Currently, obesity has reached an epidemic stage and represents a challenge for health authorities across the globe. Certainly, with emergence of obesity epidemic, we started to see an increase in the prevalence of chronic kidney disease (CKD) and nephrolithiasis. Interestingly, epidemiologic studies have shown that the incident stone risk increases with body mass index (BMI), and no further increase in risk is noticed when the BMI > 30 kg/m(2). Furthermore, metabolic syndrome and diabetes are also associated with an increase in the incidence of renal stones disease. The shared links between these metabolic disorders are insulin resistance. Furthermore, insulin resistance is thought to alter renal acid-base metabolism, resulting in a lower urine pH and increased risk of uric acid stone disease. Obesity is also associated with excess nutritional intake of lithogenic substances such as refined sugars, low fluid intake, calcium, oxalate, and purine-rich foods. Obesity is also associated with an increase in incidence of urinary tract infection. Recent reports suggested that renal stone disease carries risk of myocardial infarction, progression of CKD, and diabetes. Alarmingly, orlistat (obesity medication) and bariatric surgery are associated with hyperoxaluria and associated stone formation and even oxalate nephropathy. Certainly, the many health risks of obesity, including nephrolithiasis, will add more burden on urologists and nephrologists. Shockwave lithotripsy, percutaneous nephrolithotomy, and ureteroscopy are all safe procedures in obese individuals. Further research is urgently needed to address the pathophysiology and management of obesity-induced renal stones disease.

  16. Lunar Tractive Forces and Renal Stone Incidence

    PubMed Central

    Arampatzis, Spyridon; Thalmann, George N.; Zimmermann, Heinz; Exadaktylos, Aristomenis K.

    2011-01-01

    Background. Several factors are implicated in renal stone formation and peak incidence of renal colic admissions to emergency departments (ED). Little is known about the influence of potential environmental triggers such as lunar gravitational forces. We conducted a retrospective study to test the hypothesis that the incidence of symptomatic renal colics increases at the time of the full and new moon because of increased lunar gravitational forces. Methods. We analysed 1500 patients who attended our ED between 2000 and 2010 because of nephrolithiasis-induced renal colic. The lunar phases were defined as full moon ± 1 day, new moon ± 1 day, and the days in-between as “normal” days. Results. During this 11-year period, 156 cases of acute nephrolithiasis were diagnosed at the time of a full moon and 146 at the time of a new moon (mean of 0.4 per day for both). 1198 cases were diagnosed on “normal” days (mean 0.4 per day). The incidence of nephrolithiasis in peak and other lunar gravitational phases, the circannual variation and the gender-specific analysis showed no statistically significant differences. Conclusion. In this adequate powered longitudinal study, changes in tractive force during the different lunar phases did not influence the incidence of renal colic admissions in emergency department. PMID:22046548

  17. Renal stones on portal venous phase contrast-enhanced CT: does intravenous contrast interfere with detection?

    PubMed Central

    Dym, R. Joshua; Duncan, Dameon R.; Spektor, Michael; Cohen, Hillel W.; Scheinfeld, Meir H.

    2015-01-01

    Purpose To determine the sensitivity of portal venous phase contrast-enhanced CT for the detection of renal stones. Methods This retrospective study included 97 CT examinations of the abdomen without and with intravenous contrast, including 85 (87.6%) examinations with at least one renal stone on the “gold standard” noncontrast images, as scored by a single radiologist. Three other radiologists each independently reviewed only the contrast-enhanced images from all 97 examinations and recorded all renal stones. Reviewer sensitivity for stones was categorized by stone diameter. Reviewer sensitivity and specificity for stone disease were also calculated on a per-kidney basis. Results The 97 cases included a total of 238 stones ≥1 mm, with a mean (±SD) of 1.2 ± 1.9 stones per kidney and a stone diameter of 3.5 ± 3.0 mm. Pooling data for the three reviewers, sensitivity for all stones was 81%; sensitivity for stones ≥2, ≥3, ≥4, and ≥5 mm was 88%, 95%, 99%, and 98%, respectively. Sensitivity for stone disease on a per-kidney basis was 94% when considering all stones; when considering only stones ≥2, ≥3, and ≥4 mm, sensitivity was 96%, 99%, and 100%, respectively. Specificity for stone disease on a per-kidney basis was 98% overall, 99% when considering only stones ≥2 mm, and 100% when considering only stones ≥3 mm. Conclusion: Contrast-enhanced CT is highly sensitive for the detection of renal stones ≥3 mm in diameter and less sensitive for smaller stones. In cases where the clinical diagnosis is uncertain and performance of a CT examination is being contemplated, intravenous contrast utilization would allow assessment for stone disease while also optimizing evaluation for other conditions. PMID:24504541

  18. Renal stone disease in spinal-cord-injured patients.

    PubMed

    Welk, Blayne; Fuller, Andrew; Razvi, Hassan; Denstedt, John

    2012-08-01

    Renal stone disease is common among patients with spinal cord injury (SCI). They frequently have recurrent stones, staghorn calculi, and bilateral stone disease. The potential risk factors for stones in the SCI population are lesion level, bladder management strategy, specific metabolic changes, and frequent urinary tract infections. There has been a reduction in struvite stones among these patients, likely as a result of advances in their urologic care. The clinical presentation of stone disease in patients with SCI may involve frequent urinary infections or urosepsis, and at the time of presentation patients may need emergency renal drainage. The proportion of patients who have their stones treated with different modalities is largely unknown. Shockwave lithotripsy (SWL) is commonly used to manage stones in patients with SCI, and there have been reports of stone-free rates of 50% to 70%. The literature suggests that the morbidity associated with percutaneous nephrolithotomy in these patients is considerable. Ureteroscopy is a common modality used in the general population to treat patients with upper tract stone disease. Traditional limitations of this procedure in patients with SCI have likely been overcome with new flexible scopes; however, the medical literature has not specifically reported on its use among patients with SCI.

  19. Role of Transport and Kinetics in Growth of Renal Stones

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kassemi, Mohammad; Iskovitz, Ilana

    2012-01-01

    Renal stone disease is not only a concern on earth but could conceivably pose as a serious risk to the astronauts health and safety in Space. In this paper, a combined transport-kinetics model for growth of calcium oxalate crystals is presented. The model is used to parametrically investigate the growth of renal calculi in urine with a focus on the coupled effects of transport and surface reaction on the ionic concentrations at the surface of the crystal and their impact on the resulting growth rates. It is shown that under nominal conditions of low solution supersaturation and low Damkohler number that typically exist on Earth, the surface concentrations of calcium and oxalate approach their bulk solution values in the urine and the growth rate is most likely limited by the surface reaction kinetics. But for higher solution supersaturations and larger Damkohler numbers that may be prevalent in the microgravity environment of Space, the calcium and oxalate surface concentrations tend to shift more towards their equilibrium or saturation values and thus the growth process may be limited by the transport through the medium. Furthermore, parametric numerical studies suggest that changes to the renal biochemistry of astronauts due in space may promote development of renal calculi during long duration space expeditions.

  20. Evidence for Ureterorenoscopy and Laser Fragmentation (URSL) for Large Renal Stones in the Modern Era.

    PubMed

    Geraghty, Robert; Abourmarzouk, Omar; Rai, Bhavan; Biyani, Chandra Shakhar; Rukin, Nicholas J; Somani, Bhaskar K

    2015-08-01

    Large renal stones (>2 cm) are managed with percutaneous nephrolithotomy (PCNL), which has a good stone-free rate (SFR) but a relatively high incidence of complications graded Clavien ≥ 3. We wanted to review the literature for the use of ureterorenoscopy and laser fragmentation (URSL) for the management of these stones. A systematic review was done from 1990 to April 2014 for all English language articles reporting on a minimum of 10 patients for stones >2 cm in size (done by 2 reviewers independently) in accordance with the PRISMA and Cochrane review guidelines. A total of 379 articles were identified and after screening for the titles (54) and abstracts (29), 12 papers (651 patients) were included. The male to female ratio was 356:232 with a mean age of 54 years (range 16-86 years). With a mean stone size of 2.7 cm (2-3.15 cm) and the mean operating time of 96 min (28-238 min); the SFR was 91 % (1.45 procedures/patient). The overall number of complications was 58 (8.6 %) of which 26 (4.5 %) were complications classed Clavien ≥ 3 (haematuria with subcapsular haematoma/clot retention-7; ureteral perforation-7; steinstrasse-5; sepsis/pyelonephritis-5; prostatitis-1; cerebrovascular accident-1). Ureterorenoscopy for large renal stones in the modern era has good SFR with a small risk of major complications. PMID:26077357

  1. Evidence for Ureterorenoscopy and Laser Fragmentation (URSL) for Large Renal Stones in the Modern Era.

    PubMed

    Geraghty, Robert; Abourmarzouk, Omar; Rai, Bhavan; Biyani, Chandra Shakhar; Rukin, Nicholas J; Somani, Bhaskar K

    2015-08-01

    Large renal stones (>2 cm) are managed with percutaneous nephrolithotomy (PCNL), which has a good stone-free rate (SFR) but a relatively high incidence of complications graded Clavien ≥ 3. We wanted to review the literature for the use of ureterorenoscopy and laser fragmentation (URSL) for the management of these stones. A systematic review was done from 1990 to April 2014 for all English language articles reporting on a minimum of 10 patients for stones >2 cm in size (done by 2 reviewers independently) in accordance with the PRISMA and Cochrane review guidelines. A total of 379 articles were identified and after screening for the titles (54) and abstracts (29), 12 papers (651 patients) were included. The male to female ratio was 356:232 with a mean age of 54 years (range 16-86 years). With a mean stone size of 2.7 cm (2-3.15 cm) and the mean operating time of 96 min (28-238 min); the SFR was 91 % (1.45 procedures/patient). The overall number of complications was 58 (8.6 %) of which 26 (4.5 %) were complications classed Clavien ≥ 3 (haematuria with subcapsular haematoma/clot retention-7; ureteral perforation-7; steinstrasse-5; sepsis/pyelonephritis-5; prostatitis-1; cerebrovascular accident-1). Ureterorenoscopy for large renal stones in the modern era has good SFR with a small risk of major complications.

  2. The renal sensitivity for endogenous parathormone in patients with primary hyperparathyroidism, vitamin D deficiency and renal stones.

    PubMed

    vd Velden, P C; Fischer, H R; Schopman, W; van Roon, F; Koorevaar, G; Hackeng, W H; Silberbusch, J

    1986-07-01

    Baseline levels and increases in urinary cyclic AMP excretion (UcAMP) and immunoreactive parathormone (iPTH) were studied before and during infusion of EDTA in euparathyroid patients with renal stones (n=11), patients with primary hyperparathyroidism (PHP; n=14) and patients with vitamin D deficiency (n = 12). In all three groups, EDTA evoked a significant rise in iPTH and UcAMP. In patients with PHP and in those with vitamin D deficiency, there was a sufficiently close relationship between increments in iPTH (delta iPTH) and in UcAMP (delta UcAMP) (r = 0.90, P less than 0.001 and r = 0.67, P less than 0.02, respectively) to use this model to assess renal sensitivity for changes to endogenous PTH levels. We quantified sensitivity of the kidney for PTH, by calculating the ratio delta UcAMP/delta TPTH for the three studied groups. The ratio was comparable in patients with renal stones (16.7 +/- 10.3) and PHP (13.8 +/- 4.9, P greater than 0.10), but was significantly increased in patients with vitamin D deficiency (33.2 +/- 17.9; P less than 0.01 versus patients with renal stones and P less than 0.01 versus patients with PHP). Within the group of patients with PHP there was no correlation between baseline serum calcium concentrations and the ratio delta UcAMP/delta TPTH. It is concluded that in patients with vitamin D deficiency, renal sensitivity to PTH is increased compared with patients with PHP and euparathyroid patients with renal stones, perhaps an expression of a teleological useful adaptation of end organ sensitivity. PMID:3017831

  3. Hypercalciuria and renal stones in a sarcoidosis patient treated by extracorporeal shockwave lithotripsy.

    PubMed

    Sharma, O P; Alfaro, C

    1986-03-01

    A case of chronic pulmonary sarcoidosis and hypercalciuria complicated by bilateral renal stones is reported. Urinary stones were pulverized by extracorporeal shockwave lithotripsy (ESWL) as the patient had declined any surgical procedure. The use of ESWL in conjunction with corticosteroids appears to be the treatment of choice in the management of renal stones secondary to abnormalities of calcium metabolism in sarcoidosis.

  4. Acute renal infarction secondary to atrial fibrillation - mimicking renal stone picture.

    PubMed

    Salih, Salih Bin; Al Durihim, Huda; Al Jizeeri, Ahmed; Al Maziad, Ghassan

    2006-06-01

    Acute renal infarction presents in a similar clinical picture to that of a renal stone. We report a 55-year-old Saudi female, known to have atrial fibrillation secondary to mitral stenosis due to rheumatic heart disease. She presented with a two day history of right flank pain that was treated initially as a renal stone. Further investigations confirmed her as a case of renal infarction. Renal infarction is under-diagnosed because the similarity of its presentation to renal stone. Renal infarction should be considered in the differential diagnosis of loin pain, particularly in a patient with atrial fibrillation.

  5. The success of shock wave lithotripsy (SWL) in treating moderate-sized (10-20 mm) renal stones.

    PubMed

    Chung, Vera Y; Turney, Benjamin W

    2016-10-01

    Many centres favour endourological management over shock wave lithotripsy (SWL) in the management of moderate-sized (10-20 mm) renal stones. International guidelines support all available modalities for the treatment of these stones. The aim of this study was to evaluate the efficacy of SWL in the treatment of 10- to 20-mm renal stones. From January 2013 to October 2014, all patients with a renal stone measuring between 10 and 20 mm in maximum diameter on CT scan that were eligible for lithotripsy were included. 130 consecutive patients were evaluated. Demographics, location of stone within the kidney, number of SWL sessions and treatment outcomes were analysed. Treatment success was classified into complete stone clearance and the presence of clinically insignificant residual fragments <4 mm (CIRF). 119 patients (92 %) completed treatment and radiological follow-up. Eleven patients were excluded due to incomplete follow-up data. The mean age was 56.8 (23-88). Male to female ratio was 1.9:1 (78:41) and the mean BMI was 28.4 (17.9-58). The mean stone size was 12.8 mm (10-14 mm: n = 87; 15-20 mm: n = 32). The mean number of treatments was 2.14 and 2.82 for stones 10-14 and 15-20 mm, respectively. Overall treatment success was 66.4 % (combined complete stone clearance and CIRFs). Subdivided by stone size <15 mm and ≥15 mm, the success rate was 70.4 and 53.1 %, respectively. The treatment success by stone location was 65, 64 and 70 % for upper, middle and lower pole stones, respectively and 67 % for PUJ stones. For those who failed SWL treatment, the majority 50 % (n = 20) were managed expectantly, 42.5 % (n = 17) required URS, and 7.5 % (n = 3) required PNL. This study suggests that SWL has an efficacy for treating larger renal stones (10-20 mm) that is equivalent to success rates for smaller stones in other series. As a low-risk and non-invasive procedure SWL should be considered a first-line treatment for these stones. PMID:26743071

  6. Exploration Health Risks: Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rhatigan, Jennifer; Charles, John; Hayes, Judith; Wren, Kiley

    2006-01-01

    Maintenance of human health on long-duration exploration missions is a primary challenge to mission designers. Indeed, human health risks are currently the largest risk contributors to the risks of evacuation or loss of the crew on long-duration International Space Station missions. We describe a quantitative assessment of the relative probabilities of occurrence of the individual risks to human safety and efficiency during space flight to augment qualitative assessments used in this field to date. Quantitative probabilistic risk assessments will allow program managers to focus resources on those human health risks most likely to occur with undesirable consequences. Truly quantitative assessments are common, even expected, in the engineering and actuarial spheres, but that capability is just emerging in some arenas of life sciences research, such as identifying and minimize the hazards to astronauts during future space exploration missions. Our expectation is that these results can be used to inform NASA mission design trade studies in the near future with the objective of preventing the higher among the human health risks. We identify and discuss statistical techniques to provide this risk quantification based on relevant sets of astronaut biomedical data from short and long duration space flights as well as relevant analog populations. We outline critical assumptions made in the calculations and discuss the rationale for these. Our efforts to date have focussed on quantifying the probabilities of medical risks that are qualitatively perceived as relatively high risks of radiation sickness, cardiac dysrhythmias, medically significant renal stone formation due to increased calcium mobilization, decompression sickness as a result of EVA (extravehicular activity), and bone fracture due to loss of bone mineral density. We present these quantitative probabilities in order-of-magnitude comparison format so that relative risk can be gauged. We address the effects of

  7. Data on the degree of saturation of urine with respect to calcium hydrogen phosphate in hypercalciuric children and renal stone formers.

    PubMed

    Szabó, A; Reusz, G S; Tulassay, T

    Calcium hydrogen phosphate (CaHPO4) was considered as one of the main factors governing renal calculus formation. The degree of saturation with respect to this phase was therefore calculated in urines of 36 hypercalciuric children (20 absorptive, 16 renal subtype) with isolated hematuria, 10 renal stone patients, and 30 healthy controls. The effects of low calcium diet and hydrochlorothiazide treatment were also investigated in the patient groups. The results were compared to the widely used indicator of hypercalciuria (Ca/Cr ratio). Urines of both the hypercalciuric and the normocalciuric renal stone patients were saturated on basal conditions. On low calcium diet, 12 children of the absorptive hypercalciuric, 13 of the renal hypercalciuric and 7 of the renal stone-forming children had their urines in the saturated zone - irrespective of the evolution of Ca/Cr ratio. Thiazide normalized the activity product of CaHPO4 in all groups. The use of the Ca/Cr ratio as the sole parameter in the investigation of children with isolated hematuria and hypercalciuria or calcium nephrolithiasis seems to be insufficient; simultaneous determinations of the state of saturation of urines is recommended. This technique should also allow a quantitative assessment of the various therapeutic regimens recommended.

  8. Is the fasting calcium/creatinine a bone resorption marker in patients with calcium renal stones?

    PubMed

    Arrabal-Polo, Miguel Angel; Arrabal-Martin, Miguel; Poyatos-Andujar, Antonio; Cardenas-Grande, Encarnacion; Merino-Salas, Sergio; Zuluaga-Gomez, Armando

    2012-06-01

    Osteoporosis and osteopenia are an important endocrine-metabolic disease that affect women and men from a certain age and it has a high risk and health cost. The aim of this short communication is to show that fasting calcium/creatinine ratio in patients with calcium stones is a marker of bone resorption.We studied 180 patients with renal stones with calcium composition and the relationship of them between the calcium/creatinine in urine after 8 h of fasting with bone densitometry (T-score) and values of bone resorption marker β-crosslaps (ng/ml). The Pearson correlation test was applied for the analysis of linear correlations between quantitative variables.We have observed a statistically significant positive linear correlation between the fasting calcium/creatinine and serum and β-crosslaps (R = 0.534, p < 0.0001) and a statistically significant negative linear correlation between fasting calcium/creatinine and T-score of bone densitometry in hip (R = -0.237, p = 0.002), femoral neck (R = -0.217, p = 0.009) and lumbar spine (R = 0.292, p = 0.001).The fasting ratio calcium/creatinine in urine is associated with increased levels of β-crosslaps marker and therefore may be useful as a marker of bone resorption in these patients.

  9. Percutaneous nephrolithotomy for renal stones following failed extracorporeal shockwave lithotripsy: different performances and morbidities.

    PubMed

    Zhong, Wen; Gong, Ting; Wang, Liang; Zeng, Guohua; Wu, Wenqi; Zhao, Zhigang; Zhong, Weide; Wan, Shaw P

    2013-04-01

    The purpose of this study is to summarize the results of percutaneous nephrolithotomy (PCNL) for renal stones following failed extracorporeal shockwave lithotripsy (SWL), and to investigate the effect of previous SWL on the performances and morbidities of subsequent PCNL. Sixty-two patients with a history of failed SWL who underwent PCNL on the same kidney (group 1) were compared to 273 patients who had received PCNL as first treatment choice (group 2). Patient demographics, stone characteristics, operative findings, and complications were documented and compared. Groups 1 and 2 had similar patient demographics and stone characteristics. Mean time to establish access was comparable in both groups (10.5 ± 4.2 vs. 9.6 ± 4.5 min, p = 0.894). Time required to remove stones and total operative time were longer in group 1 (71.5 ± 10.3 vs. 62.3 ± 8.6 min, p = 0.011 and 95.8 ± 12.0 vs. 80.6 ± 13.2 min., p = 0.018, respectively). Group 1 had lower clearance rate compared to group 2 (83.9 vs. 93.4 %, p = 0.021), while postoperative complications were similar in both groups. Scattered stone fragments buried within the tissues made the procedure more difficult for stone fragmenting and extracting, which lead to longer operative time and inferior stone free rate. However, the PCNL procedure was safe and effective in patients with failed SWL. The risk of complications was similar and clearance rate was encouraging.

  10. Crystals, Randall's plaques and renal stones: do bone and atherosclerosis teach us something?

    PubMed

    Gambaro, Giovanni; D'Angelo, Angela; Fabris, Antionia; Tosetto, Enrica; Anglani, Franca; Lupo, Antonio

    2004-01-01

    The pathogenesis of calcium-oxalate (CaOx) renal stones is still debated and a number of issues needs to be clarified. In particular, it is difficult to combine the intraluminal physical-chemical imbalance and fixed particle theory with the evidence that CaOx stones actually form and grow on Randall's plaque in the renal pelvis. On the basis of recent findings in renal stone research, and data from the biology of ectopic calcification, the hypothesis is advanced that abnormal pre-urine CaOx supersaturation triggers inflammation in the long Henle's loop cells at tip forceps level. This in turn induces differentiation of these cells toward the osteogenic lineage, determining the synthesis of typical bone osteoid proteins (osteopontin, osteocalcin, BMP-2, etc) and hydroxyapatite mineralization of the Henle's basement membrane (beneath the differentiating cells) which precedes Randal's plaque formation. This may constitute a further, still unexplored example of epithelial-mesenchymal-differentiation in the kidney. PMID:15593050

  11. Prevalence of and relationship between pulp and renal stones: A radiographic study

    PubMed Central

    Patil, Santosh R.

    2015-01-01

    Aim The aim of the present study was to determine the prevalence of and the relationship between pulp and renal in affected patients and in healthy adults. Materials and methods A total of 240 patients participated in the study. Group A consisted of 120 patients who had renal calculi and Group B had 120 randomly selected controls for the study. The periapical radiographs for all patients were evaluated for the presence or absence of the narrowing of dental pulp chambers and pulp canals. The radiographs were also evaluated to determine the presence or absence of pulp stones. The results were compared and analyzed using the Chi-square test (p < 0.001). Results A total of 164 patients had pulp narrowing and 112 patients had pulp stones, which included 55 controls and 57 renal calculi patients. There was no statistical correlation between pulp narrowing and renal stones (p > 0.001) and also between pulp stones and renal stones (p > 0.001). Conclusion However, there was no significant correlation between the presence of pulp stones and renal stones, and the incidental findings of pulp stones on periapical radiographs can provide useful information in the early diagnosis of the systemic calcifications. PMID:26605145

  12. Retrograde Intrarenal Surgery in Patients Who Previously Underwent Open Renal Stone Surgery

    PubMed Central

    Alkan, Erdal; Saribacak, Ali; Ozkanli, Ahmet Oguz; Başar, Mehmet Murad; Acar, Oguz; Balbay, Mevlana Derya

    2015-01-01

    Purpose. To ascertain whether retrograde intrarenal surgery (RIRS) is as effective in patients treated previously with open renal stone surgery (ORSS) on the same kidney as in patients with no previous ORSS. Methods. There were 32 patients with renal stones who had previous ORSS and were treated with RIRS in the study group (Group 1). A total of 38 patients with renal stones who had no previous ORSS and were treated with RIRS were selected as the control group (Group 2). Recorded data regarding preoperative characteristics of the patients, stone properties, surgical parameters, outcomes, SFRs (no fragments or small fragments <4 mm), and complications between groups were compared. Results. Mean age, mean BMI, mean hospital stay, and mean operative time were not statistically different between groups. Mean stone size (10.1 ± 5.6 versus 10.3 ± 4.2; p = 0.551) and mean stone burden (25.4 ± 14.7 versus 23.5 ± 9.9; p = 0.504) were also similar between groups. After the second procedures, SFRs were 100% and 95% in groups 1 and 2, respectively (p = 0.496). No major perioperative complications were seen. Conclusion. RIRS can be safely and effectively performed with acceptable complication rates in patients treated previously with ORSS as in patients with no previous ORSS. PMID:26357570

  13. Extracorporeal shock wave lithotripsy versus retrograde intrarenal surgery for treatment for renal stones 1-2 cm: a meta-analysis.

    PubMed

    Zheng, Changjian; Yang, Hongmei; Luo, Jun; Xiong, Bo; Wang, Hongzhi; Jiang, Qing

    2015-11-01

    This study is to evaluate the efficacy and safety of extracorporeal shock wave lithotripsy (ESWL) versus retrograde intrarenal surgery (RIRS) for the treatment for renal calculi 1-2 cm. PubMed, Embase, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, and the Chinese Biomedical Literature Database were researched and hand-searched for relevant congress abstracts and journals about RIRS and ESWL for the treatment for 1- to 2-cm renal stones. The retrieval time ended in September 2014. The related trials met the inclusion criteria were included in the meta-analysis. Two reviewers independently assessed the quality of all included studies, and meta-analysis was performed with RevMan 5.2. Seven literatures were retrieved, including 983 patients. The meta-analysis results showed that, compared to RIRS group, the patients in ESWL group had the following features:(1) the stone-free rate [relative risk (RR) 0.86; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.77-0.95, P = 0.005] was significantly different between two groups; (2) The retreatment rate of RIRS group was lower (RR 8.12; 95% CI 4.77-13.83, P < 0.00); (3) The complications were not significantly different between two groups (Grade I RR 1.06; 95% CI 0.67-1.69, P = 0.80; Grade II RR 0.75; 95% CI 0.29-1.91, P = 0.54; Grade III RR 0.86; 95% CI 0.26-2.86, P = 0.80). Compared to ESWL, our results showed that RIRS provided significantly higher stone-free rate and lower retreatment rate and without increase in the incidence of complications. However, further randomized trials are needed to confirm these findings. PMID:26211003

  14. Effect of potential renal acid load of foods on urinary citrate excretion in calcium renal stone formers.

    PubMed

    Trinchieri, Alberto; Lizzano, Renata; Marchesotti, Federica; Zanetti, Giampaolo

    2006-02-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate the influence of the potential renal acid load (PRAL) of the diet on the urinary risk factors for renal stone formation. The present series comprises 187 consecutive renal calcium stone patients (114 males, 73 females) who were studied in our stone clinic. Each patient was subjected to an investigation including a 24-h dietary record and 24-h urine sample taken over the same period. Nutrients and calories were calculated by means of food composition tables using a computerized procedure. Daily PRAL was calculated considering the mineral and protein composition of foods, the mean intestinal absorption rate for each nutrient and the metabolism of sulfur-containing amino acids. Sodium, potassium, calcium, magnesium, phosphate, oxalate, urate, citrate, and creatinine levels were measured in the urine. The mean daily PRAL was higher in male than in female patients (24.1+/-24.0 vs 16.1+/-20.1 mEq/day, P=0.000). A significantly (P=0.01) negative correlation (R=-0.18) was found between daily PRAL and daily urinary citrate, but no correlation between PRAL and urinary calcium, oxalate, and urate was shown. Daily urinary calcium (R=0.186, P=0.011) and uric acid (R=0.157, P=0.033) were significantly related to the dietary intake of protein. Daily urinary citrate was significantly related to the intakes of copper (R=0.178, P=0.015), riboflavin (R=0.20, P=0.006), piridoxine (R=0.169, P=0.021) and biotin (R=0.196, P=0.007). The regression analysis by stepwise selection confirmed the significant negative correlation between PRAL and urinary citrate (P=0.002) and the significant positive correlation between riboflavin and urinary citrate (P=0.000). Urinary citrate excretion of renal stone formers (RSFs) is highly dependent from dietary acid load. The computation of the renal acid load is advisable to investigate the role of diet in the pathogenesis of calcium stone disease and it is also a useful tool to evaluate the lithogenic potential of

  15. Idiopathic hypercalciuria and formation of calcium renal stones.

    PubMed

    Coe, Fredric L; Worcester, Elaine M; Evan, Andrew P

    2016-09-01

    The most common presentation of nephrolithiasis is idiopathic calcium stones in patients without systemic disease. Most stones are primarily composed of calcium oxalate and form on a base of interstitial apatite deposits, known as Randall's plaque. By contrast some stones are composed largely of calcium phosphate, as either hydroxyapatite or brushite (calcium monohydrogen phosphate), and are usually accompanied by deposits of calcium phosphate in the Bellini ducts. These deposits result in local tissue damage and might serve as a site of mineral overgrowth. Stone formation is driven by supersaturation of urine with calcium oxalate and brushite. The level of supersaturation is related to fluid intake as well as to the levels of urinary citrate and calcium. Risk of stone formation is increased when urine citrate excretion is <400 mg per day, and treatment with potassium citrate has been used to prevent stones. Urine calcium levels >200 mg per day also increase stone risk and often result in negative calcium balance. Reduced renal calcium reabsorption has a role in idiopathic hypercalciuria. Low sodium diets and thiazide-type diuretics lower urine calcium levels and potentially reduce the risk of stone recurrence and bone disease. PMID:27452364

  16. Role of sonography-guided lithotripsy in renal stone with angiomyolipoma.

    PubMed

    Parmar, Sameer; Desai, Samir

    2013-04-01

    Treatment of angiomyolipoma (AML) of kidney with stone has been challenging for urologists. We present our experience of treating the renal stone in the presence of AML with shockwave lithotripsy (SWL). Position of the patient with respect to the direction of the shockwaves and accurate knowledge of the dimension of the focal zone are critical aspects of SWL. Keeping the AML safely away from the focal zone at all times during the procedure is only possible by usage of real-time ultrasonography in lieu of fluoroscopy.

  17. Treatment of renal stones in Bulgaria in ancient times ('Hissarya' baths).

    PubMed

    Nenov, D; Nenov, V; Lazarov, G; Tchepilev, A

    1999-01-01

    Well-known mineral baths in Bulgaria, 'Hissarya', are described. Their existence dates back more than 25 centuries. 'Hissarya' is an Arabic word meaning 'siege of a castle'. Remains of castle walls are the symbol of 'Hissarya' today. Every year more than 100,000 patients from Bulgaria and other countries visit 'Hissarya'. From the time of the Thracians and the Roman Empire until now renal stones have been successfully treated by drinking the mineral water and by taking baths. The Roman Emperor Septimius Severus (193-211) visited 'Hissarya' every spring to treat his renal disease. PMID:10213812

  18. Renal stone in crossed fused renal ectopia and its laparoscopic management: Case report and review of literature.

    PubMed

    Agrawal, Santosh; Chipde, Saurabh Sudhir; Kalathia, Jaisukh; Agrawal, Rajeev

    2016-01-01

    Management of renal stone in crossed fused renal ectopia (CFRE) is difficult because of abnormal location, malrotation, and its relations with vertebral column and small bowel. Management is not standardized because of the paucity of literature and variable anatomy. We managed an 8-year-old boy with multiple renal stones in right side crossed kidney by laparoscopic pyelolithotomy and nephro pyeloscopy with the help of ureteroscope. Until now, there is only one prior report of laparoscopic pyelolithotomy in CFRE. We share our experience in this case and review the literature regarding the management of kidney stones in this rare anomaly. PMID:27141201

  19. Renal stone in crossed fused renal ectopia and its laparoscopic management: Case report and review of literature.

    PubMed

    Agrawal, Santosh; Chipde, Saurabh Sudhir; Kalathia, Jaisukh; Agrawal, Rajeev

    2016-01-01

    Management of renal stone in crossed fused renal ectopia (CFRE) is difficult because of abnormal location, malrotation, and its relations with vertebral column and small bowel. Management is not standardized because of the paucity of literature and variable anatomy. We managed an 8-year-old boy with multiple renal stones in right side crossed kidney by laparoscopic pyelolithotomy and nephro pyeloscopy with the help of ureteroscope. Until now, there is only one prior report of laparoscopic pyelolithotomy in CFRE. We share our experience in this case and review the literature regarding the management of kidney stones in this rare anomaly.

  20. A prospective multicenter European study on flexible ureterorenoscopy for the management of renal stone

    PubMed Central

    Berardinelli, Francesco; Proietti, Silvia; Cindolo, Luca; Pellegrini, Fabrizio; Peschechera, Roberto; Derek, Hennessey; Dalpiaz, Orietta; Schips, Luigi; Giusti, Guido

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT Purpose The aim of this study was to describe the outcomes and the complications of retrograde intrarenal surgery (RIRS) for renal stones in a multi-institutional working group. Materials and Methods From 2012 to 2014, we conducted a prospective study including all RIRS performed for kidney stones in 4 European centers. Demographic information, disease characteristics, and perioperative and postoperative data were gathered. Patients and stone data, procedure characteristics, results and safety outcomes were analyzed and compared by descriptive statistics. Complications were reported using the standardized Clavien system. Results Three hundred and fifty-six patients underwent 377 RIRS with holmium laser lithotripsy for renal stones. The RIRS was completed in all patients with a mean operative time of 63.5 min. The stone-free status was confirmed endoscopically and through fluoroscopic imaging after the first procedure in 73.6%. The second procedure was performed in twenty patients (5.6%) achieving an overall stone free rate of 78.9%. The overall complication rate was 15.1%. Intra-operative and post-operative complications were seen in 24 (6.7%) and 30 (8.4%) cases, respectively. Conclusions RIRS is a minimally invasive procedure with good results in terms of stone-free and complications rate. PMID:27286110

  1. Bilateral single-session retrograde intra-renal surgery: A safe option for renal stones up to 1.5 cm

    PubMed Central

    Bansal, Punit; Bansal, Neeru; Sehgal, Anand; Singla, Subhash

    2016-01-01

    Introduction: Assessment of treatment outcomes in patients undergoing bilateral single-session retrograde intra-renal surgery (RIRS) for bilateral renal stones up to 1.5 cm. Materials and Methods: Retrospective analysis of 74 patients was done with bilateral renal calculi, who underwent bilateral single-session RIRS at our stone referral hospital from December 2011 to May 2014. The selection criteria for this intervention were patient's preference, failure of other treatments and stone up to 1.5 cm. Patients with creatinine more than 2, pyonephrosis sepsis, bilateral impacted pelviureteric junction calculi were excluded from study. All patients were evaluated with serum biochemistry, urinalysis, urine culture, plain radiography of kidney-ureter-bladder, intravenous urography, renal ultrasonography (USG) and/or computed tomography (CT). Follow-up evaluation included serum biochemistry and postoperative plain film and renal USG. The success rate was defined as patients who were stone-free or only had a residual fragment of less than 4 mm. CT was conducted only in patients with residual stones, which were present in seven patients. Results: A total of 74 patients (50 male, 24 female) with a mean age 39.2 ± 15.2 were included in the present study. The mean stone size was 11.7 ± 2.4 mm. The stone-free rates were 86.84% and 97.29% after the first and second procedures, respectively. In eight patients (10.8%), minor complications were observed, whereas no major complications were noted in the studied group. There was no significant difference in pre- and post-operative serum creatinine levels. Conclusion: In patients with bilateral renal stones up to 1.5 cm bilateral single-session RIRS with flexible ureteroscope can be safely performed with low complication rate. PMID:26834403

  2. Renal collecting system anatomy: its possible role in the effectiveness of renal stone treatment.

    PubMed

    Sampaio, F J

    2001-07-01

    The anatomy of the kidney collecting system may play a role in the selection of the best method of kidney stone treatment for a specific patient. Also, an analysis of the collecting-system anatomy would indicate the likely effectiveness of each method of treatment. For stones located in the lower pole, the clearance rate after shockwave lithotripsy has been uniformly low relative to that of calculi elsewhere. Some special anatomical findings suggest that retention of what are considered to be 'passable stone fragments' (4 mm in diameter or less) in the inferior pole might be a consequence not only of the gravity-dependent position of lower calices but also of particular anatomical features of the inferior pole collecting system. The aspects reviewed and discussed are the angle formed between the main lower infundibulum and the renal pelvis (the infundibulopelvic angle), the lower infundibula diameters, the lower infundibulum length and height, and the lower calices spatial distribution. Also, the presence of minor calices perpendicular to the surface of the collecting system and drainage of superior and inferior poles are reviewed and discussed in the context of their importance to the effectiveness of renal stone treatment.

  3. Nephrolithiasis: Molecular Mechanism of Renal Stone Formation and the Critical Role Played by Modulators

    PubMed Central

    Aggarwal, Kanu Priya; Narula, Shifa; Kakkar, Monica

    2013-01-01

    Urinary stone disease is an ailment that has afflicted human kind for many centuries. Nephrolithiasis is a significant clinical problem in everyday practice with a subsequent burden for the health system. Nephrolithiasis remains a chronic disease and our fundamental understanding of the pathogenesis of stones as well as their prevention and cure still remains rudimentary. Regardless of the fact that supersaturation of stone-forming salts in urine is essential, abundance of these salts by itself will not always result in stone formation. The pathogenesis of calcium oxalate stone formation is a multistep process and essentially includes nucleation, crystal growth, crystal aggregation, and crystal retention. Various substances in the body have an effect on one or more of the above stone-forming processes, thereby influencing a person's ability to promote or prevent stone formation. Promoters facilitate the stone formation while inhibitors prevent it. Besides low urine volume and low urine pH, high calcium, sodium, oxalate and urate are also known to promote calcium oxalate stone formation. Many inorganic (citrate, magnesium) and organic substances (nephrocalcin, urinary prothrombin fragment-1, osteopontin) are known to inhibit stone formation. This review presents a comprehensive account of the mechanism of renal stone formation and the role of inhibitors/promoters in calcium oxalate crystallisation. PMID:24151593

  4. Delayed migration of embolized coil with large renal stone formation: a rare presentation.

    PubMed

    Kumar, Santosh; Jayant, Kumar; Singh, Shrawan K; Parmar, Kalpesh M; Devana, Sudheer K; Choudhari, Gautam R; Mittal, Ankur

    2014-01-01

    Delayed bleeding following percutaneous nephrolithotomy (PCNL) usually occurs due to development of the pseudoaneurysm which can be successfully managed with coil embolization. However very few cases of such complications have been reported in the literature. Here we are reporting a case of delayed post-PCNL bleeding that occurred in a 53-year-old diabetic patient operated on for renal stone. Computed tomography scan revealed a presence of the pseudoaneurysm in the segmental branch of right renal artery, which was successfully managed with coiling. Patient remained asymptomatic for the next 9 years after which he again presented with similar complaints. X-ray KUB was done which revealed a 2.7 cms renal pelvic calculus with the migrated coil in its center and a left upper ureteric calculus. His routine haemogram, coagulogram, serum electrolytes, and liver function tests, renal function tests, vitamin D3, and PTH (parathyroid hormone) were within normal limits. He underwent left laparoscopic ureterolithotomy and right percutaneous nephrolithotomy (PCNL). Intraoperatively the migrated stainless steel embolization coil was seen engulfed all around by the multiple stones in the right renal pelvis. Postoperative period was uneventful. Later he was followed in the outpatient department and was doing well. To conclude, this is the only case report of development of a large calculus around a migrated embolization coil which was successfully managed with PCNL. PCNL offers better stone clearance in cases of stones being formed over foreign bodies like fragmented double J stents, fragmented nephrostomies, or migrated embolization coil. PMID:25610700

  5. Percutaneous nephrolithotomy--a versatile technique for both simple and complex renal stone.

    PubMed

    Hossain, T M S; Asaduzzaman, M; Uddin, M N; Rahman, M H; Jahan, M U; Bhuiyan, A K M Z I

    2013-12-01

    Percutaneous Nephrolithotomy is currently the preferred first line treatment for simple & complex renal calculi. The technique also being used increasingly for smaller stones that have failed ESWL. Aim of the study is to share our experience in PCNL in course of time. This study was conducted from January 2009 to December 2012, 131 patient's with 142 renal units of 5-75 yrs of age, PCNL were performed in NIKDU, BSMMU & JBFH. Stone were classified into simple (isolated renal pelvis or isolated calyceal stones) or complex (partial or complete staghorn stones, renal pelvic stone with accompanying calyceal stones). The stone size was 1.5-5cm approximately. We asses our initial puncture technique, need for multi-tract, supra 12th rib access, stone free rate, operative duration, postoperative complication, number of transfusion and hospital stay. Operative durations were 60 min -180 minutes. Puncture technique improved in course of time. 14 patients need multi-puncture and tract, all are supra 12th access. Out of 142 renal units 120 (83%) were stone free after first procedure, another 22 need and auxiliary procedure, (5 2nd look PCNL, 6 URS, 11 ESWL) to become stone free result in a 95% stone free rate. Complications occurred in 17 procedures which dealt accordingly. This study revealed PCNL is an effective, versatile safe and cosmetically acceptable procedure for all age groups in simple and complex renal stone.

  6. Influence of dietary calcium on serum 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D concentrations in renal stone formers.

    PubMed

    D'Amour, P; Gascon-Barré, M; Dufresne, L; Perreault, J P

    1984-11-01

    The role of 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D (1,25(OH)2D) in the pathogenesis of idiopathic hypercalciuria was studied in 37 renal stone formers who, during two 10-day periods, followed first a normal and then a low calcium diet. The following samples were taken during each diet; 24 h urine; fasting blood and urine; blood and urine following a 1 g oral calcium load. Patients were divided according to serum calcium level, 24 h urinary calcium excretion on the first diet and fasting calcium excretion on the second diet. Eight patients were found to be normocalciuric (NSF), 16 had absorptive hypercalciuria (AH), five renal hypercalciuria (RH) and eight primary hyperparathyroidism. In NSF and AH, a positive correlation was found between the fasting and the 24 hour urinary calcium (r = 0.787, P less than 0.001), while negative correlations were found between the fasting urinary calcium and the serum parathyroid hormone (r = -0.703, P less than 0.001) or the fasting urinary cyclic AMP (r = -0.434, P less than 0.01). Patients with RH had higher serum PTH and urinary cAMP levels for a given degree of fasting calciuria mainly on the low calcium diet. Mean serum 1,25(OH)2D was similar in NSF (43.6 +/- 4.5 pg/ml), AH (43.6 +/- 2.3 pg/ml) and RH (40.4 +/- 4.8 pg/ml) on the first diet; increases were similar in all groups after 10 d of calcium restriction. A positive correlation was found between the serum 1,25(OH)2D concentrations and the 24 h urinary calcium excretion on the first diet in NSF (r = 0.889, P less than 0.001) but not in AH or RH. There was no evidence of such correlation with the low calcium diet. No correlation between the calciuric response to calcium loading and the serum concentrations of 1,25(OH)2D was found. The results suggest that serum concentrations of 1,25(OH)2D may be related to urinary calcium excretion in NSF more than in AH or RH. The factors responsible for the hyperabsorption of calcium in the latter patients remain to be elucidated.

  7. Colonic preservation reduces need for parenteral therapy, increases incidence of renal stones, but does not change high prevalence of gall stones in patients with a short bowel.

    PubMed Central

    Nightingale, J M; Lennard-Jones, J E; Gertner, D J; Wood, S R; Bartram, C I

    1992-01-01

    Forty six patients with less than 200 cm of normal jejunum and no functioning colon were compared with 38 patients with similar jejunal lengths in continuity with a functioning colon. Women predominated (67%), and the most common diagnosis in each group was Crohn's disease (33 of 46 no colon, 16 of 38 with colon). All patients without a colon and less than 85 cm of jejunum and all those with a colon and less than 45 cm jejunum needed long term parenteral nutrition. Six months after the last resection 12 of 17 patients with less than 100 cm jejunum and no colon needed intravenous supplements compared with 7 of 21 with a colon. Between 6 months and 2 years, little change occurred in the nutritional/fluid requirements in either group, though there was weight gain. Of 71 patients assessed clinically at a median of 5 years, none with more than 50 cm of jejunum and a colon needed parenteral supplements. Most (25 of 27) of those without a colon who did not need parenteral supplements required oral electrolyte replacement compared with few (4 of 27) with a colon. None of the patients without a colon developed symptomatic renal stones compared with 9 of 38 (24%) with a colon (p < 0.001). Stone analysis in three patients showed calcium oxalate. Gall stone prevalence was high but equal in the two groups--43% of those without and 44% of those with a colon. PMID:1452074

  8. Natural Abundance 43Ca NMR as a Tool for Exploring Calcium Biomineralization: Renal Stone Formation and Growth

    SciTech Connect

    Bowers, Geoffrey M.; Kirkpatrick, Robert J.

    2011-12-07

    Renal stone diseases are a global health issue with little effective therapeutic recourse aside from surgery and shock-wave lithotripsy, primarily because the fundamental chemical mechanisms behind calcium biomineralization are poorly understood. In this work, we show that natural abundance 43Ca NMR at 21.1 T is an effective means to probe the molecular-level Ca2+ structure in oxalate-based kidney stones. We find that the 43Ca NMR resonance of an authentic oxalate-based kidney stone cannot be explained by a single pure phase of any common Ca2+-bearing stone mineral. Combined with XRD results, our findings suggest an altered calcium oxalate monohydrate-like Ca2+ coordination environment for some fraction of Ca2+ in our sample. The evidence is consistent with existing literature hypothesizing that nonoxalate organic material interacts directly with Ca2+ at stone surfaces and is the primary driver of renal stone aggregation and growth. Our findings show that 43Ca NMR spectroscopy may provide unique and crucial insight into the fundamental chemistry of kidney stone formation, growth, and the role organic molecules play in these processes.

  9. Transmesocolic robotic extended pyelolithotomy of a large gas-containing renal stone: Case report and review of the literature

    PubMed Central

    Manny, Ted B.; Manny, Julia S.; Hemal, Ashok K.

    2013-01-01

    We present the fifth case in the world literature of a gas-containing urinary stone. Our patient is a 31-year-old woman referred for left flank pain and gross hematuria who was noted on imaging to have a 6.5 cm left renal pelvis stone containing gas. Cultures revealed Escherichia coli from the urine and stone material. Chemistry revealed underlying gouty diathesis. The stone was removed using robotic extended pyelolithotomy. Overall, renal function remained unchanged while drainage improved on nucleotide renography. Review of the world literature suggests that gas-containing renal stones are invariably associated with emphysematous pyelonephritis commonly caused by E. coli and Klebsiella. Contributing factors to gas-containing stone formation include urinary stasis, metabolic mineral derangement and, in a minority of the cases, diabetes. PMID:23798875

  10. Transmesocolic robotic extended pyelolithotomy of a large gas-containing renal stone: Case report and review of the literature.

    PubMed

    Manny, Ted B; Manny, Julia S; Hemal, Ashok K

    2013-04-01

    We present the fifth case in the world literature of a gas-containing urinary stone. Our patient is a 31-year-old woman referred for left flank pain and gross hematuria who was noted on imaging to have a 6.5 cm left renal pelvis stone containing gas. Cultures revealed Escherichia coli from the urine and stone material. Chemistry revealed underlying gouty diathesis. The stone was removed using robotic extended pyelolithotomy. Overall, renal function remained unchanged while drainage improved on nucleotide renography. Review of the world literature suggests that gas-containing renal stones are invariably associated with emphysematous pyelonephritis commonly caused by E. coli and Klebsiella. Contributing factors to gas-containing stone formation include urinary stasis, metabolic mineral derangement and, in a minority of the cases, diabetes. PMID:23798875

  11. Near-IR Fourier transform Raman spectroscopy in surgery and medicine: detection of renal stones and bladder cancer

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nie, Shuming; Redd, Douglas C. B.; Li, Yunzhi; Yu, Nai-Teng

    1992-06-01

    Tissue diagnosis and characterization are critically important to the development and applications of laser-based therapeutic procedures in urology (viz., laser lithotripsy and bladder cancer treatment). Recently, we demonstrated for the first time that the new technique of near-infrared laser excited Fourier transform (FT)-Raman spectroscopy can readily differentiate various types of renal stones and bladder cancer from normal kidney/bladder tissues. It has thus become possible to develop an FT-Raman-based fiberoptic sensor for clinical use in laser lithotripsy and bladder cancer treatment. The future development of such a diagnostic modality will allow a surgeon/physician to take real-time Raman spectra of urinary calculi or cancerous tissue via a flexible fiberoptic probe.

  12. Risk Assessment: Evidence Base

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Johnson-Throop, Kathy A.

    2007-01-01

    Human systems PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment: a) Provides quantitative measures of probability, consequence, and uncertainty; and b) Communicates risk and informs decision-making. Human health risks rated highest in ISS PRA are based on 1997 assessment of clinical events in analog operational settings. Much work remains to analyze remaining human health risks identified in Bioastronautics Roadmap.

  13. GM Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sparrow, Penny A. C.

    GM risk assessments play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of a GM risk assessment will be to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to assess any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all ‘what if’ scenarios, based on scientific evidence.

  14. GM Risk Assessment.

    PubMed

    Sparrow, Penny A C

    2009-01-01

    GM risk assessments play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of a GM risk assessment will be to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to assess any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all 'what if' scenarios, based on scientific evidence. This chapter sets out to provide researchers with helpful guidance notes on producing their own GM risk assessment. While reference will be made to UK and EU regulations, the underlying principles and points to consider are generic to most countries. PMID:19009454

  15. GM Risk Assessment.

    PubMed

    Sparrow, Penny A C

    2009-01-01

    GM risk assessments play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of a GM risk assessment will be to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to assess any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all 'what if' scenarios, based on scientific evidence. This chapter sets out to provide researchers with helpful guidance notes on producing their own GM risk assessment. While reference will be made to UK and EU regulations, the underlying principles and points to consider are generic to most countries.

  16. Strategic Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Derleth, Jason; Lobia, Marcus

    2009-01-01

    This slide presentation provides an overview of the attempt to develop and demonstrate a methodology for the comparative assessment of risks across the entire portfolio of NASA projects and assets. It includes information about strategic risk identification, normalizing strategic risks, calculation of relative risk score, and implementation options.

  17. Risk Assessment Overview

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Prassinos, Peter G.; Lyver, John W., IV; Bui, Chinh T.

    2011-01-01

    Risk assessment is used in many industries to identify and manage risks. Initially developed for use on aeronautical and nuclear systems, risk assessment has been applied to transportation, chemical, computer, financial, and security systems among others. It is used to gain an understanding of the weaknesses or vulnerabilities in a system so modification can be made to increase operability, efficiency, and safety and to reduce failure and down-time. Risk assessment results are primary inputs to risk-informed decision making; where risk information including uncertainty is used along with other pertinent information to assist management in the decision-making process. Therefore, to be useful, a risk assessment must be directed at specific objectives. As the world embraces the globalization of trade and manufacturing, understanding the associated risk become important to decision making. Applying risk assessment techniques to a global system of development, manufacturing, and transportation can provide insight into how the system can fail, the likelihood of system failure and the consequences of system failure. The risk assessment can identify those elements that contribute most to risk and identify measures to prevent and mitigate failures, disruptions, and damaging outcomes. In addition, risk associated with public and environment impact can be identified. The risk insights gained can be applied to making decisions concerning suitable development and manufacturing locations, supply chains, and transportation strategies. While risk assessment has been mostly applied to mechanical and electrical systems, the concepts and techniques can be applied across other systems and activities. This paper provides a basic overview of the development of a risk assessment.

  18. Biosafety Risk Assessment Methodology

    SciTech Connect

    Caskey, Susan Adele; Gaudioso, Jennifer M.; Salerno, Reynolds Mathewson; Wagner, Stefan M.; Shigematsu, Mika; Risi, George; Kozlovac, Joe; Halkjaer-Knudsen, Vibeke; Prat, Esmeralda

    2010-10-01

    Laboratories that work with biological agents need to manage their safety risks to persons working the laboratories and the human and animal community in the surrounding areas. Biosafety guidance defines a wide variety of biosafety risk mitigation measures, which include measures which fall under the following categories: engineering controls, procedural and administrative controls, and the use of personal protective equipment; the determination of which mitigation measures should be used to address the specific laboratory risks are dependent upon a risk assessment. Ideally, a risk assessment should be conducted in a manner which is standardized and systematic which allows it to be repeatable and comparable. A risk assessment should clearly define the risk being assessed and avoid over complication.

  19. Cancer Risk Assessment Primer.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Aidala, Jim

    1985-01-01

    Describes the scientific basis of cancer risk assessment, outlining the dominant controversies surrounding the use of different methods for identifying carcinogens (short-term tests, animal bioassays, and epidemiological studies). Points out that risk assessment is as much an art as it is a science. (DH)

  20. Bayesian Analysis for Risk Assessment of Selected Medical Events in Support of the Integrated Medical Model Effort

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gilkey, Kelly M.; Myers, Jerry G.; McRae, Michael P.; Griffin, Elise A.; Kallrui, Aditya S.

    2012-01-01

    The Exploration Medical Capability project is creating a catalog of risk assessments using the Integrated Medical Model (IMM). The IMM is a software-based system intended to assist mission planners in preparing for spaceflight missions by helping them to make informed decisions about medical preparations and supplies needed for combating and treating various medical events using Probabilistic Risk Assessment. The objective is to use statistical analyses to inform the IMM decision tool with estimated probabilities of medical events occurring during an exploration mission. Because data regarding astronaut health are limited, Bayesian statistical analysis is used. Bayesian inference combines prior knowledge, such as data from the general U.S. population, the U.S. Submarine Force, or the analog astronaut population located at the NASA Johnson Space Center, with observed data for the medical condition of interest. The posterior results reflect the best evidence for specific medical events occurring in flight. Bayes theorem provides a formal mechanism for combining available observed data with data from similar studies to support the quantification process. The IMM team performed Bayesian updates on the following medical events: angina, appendicitis, atrial fibrillation, atrial flutter, dental abscess, dental caries, dental periodontal disease, gallstone disease, herpes zoster, renal stones, seizure, and stroke.

  1. Anatomy of the collecting system of lower pole of the kidney in patients with a single renal stone: a comparative study with individuals with normal kidneys.

    PubMed

    Zomorrodi, Afshar; Buhluli, Abulfazel; Fathi, Samad

    2010-07-01

    At least 5% of women and 12% of men during their lives will experience renal colic, at least once. Many theories have been suggested for the etiology of renal stones and variations in the anatomy of the collecting system have been suggested to have a role in stone formation. This study was conducted to examine the role of variation of lower pole collecting system in patients with lower pole kidney stone and compared the same in normal persons (kidney donors). Investigation for the anatomy of the lower pole of the kidney (angle between lower infundibulum and pelvis, length and diameter of the infundibulum and number and pattern distribution of calyces) was carried out using intravenous pyelogram (IVP) in 100 cases with urinary stone (study cases) and 400 persons with normal kidneys (control subjects). The study was a retrospective cross-sectional case control study. Results were analyzed by Mann-Whitney and independent sample chi square tests. The mean infundibulum-pelvic angle (IPA) in control subjects and in patients was 112.5 +/- 10.7 and 96.6 +/- 28.8, respectively. There was significant correlation between reduced angle and stone formation (P= < 0.001). The mean infundibulum-uretero-pelvic angle (IUPA) in control subjects and study cases was 53.5 +/- 12.7 and 42.6 +/- 13.4, respectively. There was significant correlation between decreased angle and stone formation (P = or < 0.001). The mean length of infundibulum of lower pole of kidney (IPIL) in controls and study patients was 22.5 +/- 4.1 and 27.5 +/- 7.7, respectively, which was statistically significant (P< 0.001). The mean number of calyces in lower pole of the kidney (LPCN) in controls and study patients was 2.6 +/- 0.6 and 3 +/- 0.9, respectively, which was statistically significant (P = or < 0.002). There was no significant correlation between distribution of calyces and stone formation (P= 0.366). Our study suggests that abnormal renal anatomy was more common in patients with lower pole kidney stone

  2. Landslide risk assessment

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lessing, P.; Messina, C.P.; Fonner, R.F.

    1983-01-01

    Landslide risk can be assessed by evaluating geological conditions associated with past events. A sample of 2,4 16 slides from urban areas in West Virginia, each with 12 associated geological factors, has been analyzed using SAS computer methods. In addition, selected data have been normalized to account for areal distribution of rock formations, soil series, and slope percents. Final calculations yield landslide risk assessments of 1.50=high risk. The simplicity of the method provides for a rapid, initial assessment prior to financial investment. However, it does not replace on-site investigations, nor excuse poor construction. ?? 1983 Springer-Verlag New York Inc.

  3. A rapid food screener ranks potential renal acid load of renal stone formers similarly to a diet history questionnaire.

    PubMed

    Trinchieri, Alberto

    2013-02-01

    Dietary acid load was reported to be inversely related to urinary citrate excretion. The calcium renal stone formers (RSFs) should be recommended to lower their dietary potential renal acid load (PRAL) to reduce stone recurrence. Reduction of dietary PRAL also showed a promising role for the prevention of other metabolic diseases. However, clinicians often fail to provide nutritional screening and counseling due to lack of simple tools to obtain a reliable dietary history. A one-page food screener (LAKE score) was recently designed to obtain a reliable measure of dietary PRAL in short time. We report the testing of such an instrument in the evaluation of PRAL: in a population of 135 healthy subjects (60 males, 75 females; age range 18-73), living in the area of Milan, Italy. Each participant received both the one-page LAKE food screener and an extensive 24-h dietary questionnaire. We examined agreement between the LAKE food screener scores, and estimates of PRAL and other nutrients produced by the computerized processing of thorough 24-h dietary histories. Spearman rank order correlation coefficient (r > 0.50) showed that LAKE score ranked subjects quite well with respect to dietary PRAL. LAKE positive subscore ranked patients with respect to dietary intake of total protein (r = 0.642) and phosphate (r = 0.648). We also obtained an excellent correlation of LAKE negative subscore with potassium intake (r = -0.531) and vitamin C (r = -0.554) as estimated by 24 h recalls. The LAKE score ranked patients similar to the estimates of 24-h dietary recalls, used as the "gold standard" for the evaluation of dietary PRAL. This rapid, simple and inexpensive food screener for the evaluation of dietary PRAL could provide a "snapshot" of the diet of the RSFs to allow an immediate feedback to the patient during office consultation.

  4. Public Risk Assessment Program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mendeck, Gavin

    2010-01-01

    The Public Entry Risk Assessment (PERA) program addresses risk to the public from shuttle or other spacecraft re-entry trajectories. Managing public risk to acceptable levels is a major component of safe spacecraft operation. PERA is given scenario inputs of vehicle trajectory, probability of failure along that trajectory, the resulting debris characteristics, and field size and distribution, and returns risk metrics that quantify the individual and collective risk posed by that scenario. Due to the large volume of data required to perform such a risk analysis, PERA was designed to streamline the analysis process by using innovative mathematical analysis of the risk assessment equations. Real-time analysis in the event of a shuttle contingency operation, such as damage to the Orbiter, is possible because PERA allows for a change to the probability of failure models, therefore providing a much quicker estimation of public risk. PERA also provides the ability to generate movie files showing how the entry risk changes as the entry develops. PERA was designed to streamline the computation of the enormous amounts of data needed for this type of risk assessment by using an average distribution of debris on the ground, rather than pinpointing the impact point of every piece of debris. This has reduced the amount of computational time significantly without reducing the accuracy of the results. PERA was written in MATLAB; a compiled version can run from a DOS or UNIX prompt.

  5. GAR Global Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maskrey, Andrew; Safaie, Sahar

    2015-04-01

    Disaster risk management strategies, policies and actions need to be based on evidence of current disaster loss and risk patterns, past trends and future projections, and underlying risk factors. Faced with competing demands for resources, at any level it is only possible to priorities a range of disaster risk management strategies and investments with adequate understanding of realised losses, current and future risk levels and impacts on economic growth and social wellbeing as well as cost and impact of the strategy. The mapping and understanding of the global risk landscape has been greatly enhanced by the latest iteration of the GAR Global Risk Assessment and the objective of this submission is to present the GAR global risk assessment which contributed to Global Assessment Report (GAR) 2015. This initiative which has been led by UNISDR, was conducted by a consortium of technical institutions from around the world and has covered earthquake, cyclone, riverine flood, and tsunami probabilistic risk for all countries of the world. In addition, the risks associated with volcanic ash in the Asia-Pacific region, drought in various countries in sub-Saharan Africa and climate change in a number of countries have been calculated. The presentation will share thee results as well as the experience including the challenges faced in technical elements as well as the process and recommendations for the future of such endeavour.

  6. Pears and renal stones: possible weapon for prevention? A comprehensive narrative review.

    PubMed

    Manfredini, R; De Giorgi, A; Storari, A; Fabbian, F

    2016-01-01

    Urinary stones have been recognized as a human disease since dawn of history and treatment of this condition is reported by Egyptian medical writings. Also, pears have a very long history, being one of the earliest cultivated fruit trees and also known for medicinal use. Urinary tract stone formation represents a common condition and also a significant burden for health care service, due also to possible frequent relapses. Furthermore, urinary stones have been reported to have relationship with different metabolic derangements, and appropriate diet could contribute to avoid or reduce urinary stone formation. Citrate is an inhibitor of crystal growth in the urinary system, and hypocitraturia represents a main therapeutical target in stone formers. Pears contain a significant amount of malic acid, a precursor of citrate, and have antioxidant activity as well. A diet supplemented with pears, and associated with low consumption of meat and salt could impact positively cardiometabolic risk and urinary tract stone formation. However, very few studies evaluated the impact of pears utilization on health, and none on urinary tract stone formation in particular. High content in malate could warrant protection against stone formation, avoiding patients at high risk to be compelled to assume a considerable and expensive amount of pills. PMID:26914114

  7. Pears and renal stones: possible weapon for prevention? A comprehensive narrative review.

    PubMed

    Manfredini, R; De Giorgi, A; Storari, A; Fabbian, F

    2016-01-01

    Urinary stones have been recognized as a human disease since dawn of history and treatment of this condition is reported by Egyptian medical writings. Also, pears have a very long history, being one of the earliest cultivated fruit trees and also known for medicinal use. Urinary tract stone formation represents a common condition and also a significant burden for health care service, due also to possible frequent relapses. Furthermore, urinary stones have been reported to have relationship with different metabolic derangements, and appropriate diet could contribute to avoid or reduce urinary stone formation. Citrate is an inhibitor of crystal growth in the urinary system, and hypocitraturia represents a main therapeutical target in stone formers. Pears contain a significant amount of malic acid, a precursor of citrate, and have antioxidant activity as well. A diet supplemented with pears, and associated with low consumption of meat and salt could impact positively cardiometabolic risk and urinary tract stone formation. However, very few studies evaluated the impact of pears utilization on health, and none on urinary tract stone formation in particular. High content in malate could warrant protection against stone formation, avoiding patients at high risk to be compelled to assume a considerable and expensive amount of pills.

  8. Environmental risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    MacDonell, M.M.

    1997-10-01

    This paper presents a current overview of the basic elements of environmental risk assessment within the basic four-step process of hazard identification, exposure assessment, toxicity assessment, and risk characterization. These general steps have been applied to assess both human and ecological risks from environmental exposures. Approaches used to identify hazards and exposures are being refined, including the use of optimized field sampling and more representative, rather than conservative,upper-bound estimates. In addition, toxicity data are being reviewed more rigorously as US and European harmonization initiatives gain strength, and the classification of chemicals has become more qualitative to more flexibly accommodate new dose-response information as it is developed. Finally, more emphasis is being placed on noncancer end points, and human and ecological risks are being weighed against each other more explicitly at the risk characterization phase. Recent advances in risk-based decision making reflect the increased transparency of the overall process, with more explicit incorporation of multiple trade-offs. The end result is a more comprehensive life-cycle evaluation of the risks associated with environmental exposures at contaminated sites.

  9. Bio Risk Assessment Tool

    SciTech Connect

    Pohl, Phillip

    2004-07-22

    The Biosecurity Risk Assessment Tool (BRAT) is a new type of computer application for the screening-level assessment of risk to dairy operations. BRAT for Dairies is designed to be intuitive and easy to use. Users enter basic data-property address, feed management, employee population, and so on - into the interface. Using these data and rules found in an expert system. BRAT for Dairies consults appropriate sections of its database. The expert system determines the risk implications of the basic data, e.g. diseases are closely tied to pen location with respect to the outside world, When the analysis is complete, BRAT for Dairies evaluates and allocates the risk for each hazard, ranks the risks, and displays the results graphically.

  10. Microbiological Quantitative Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dominguez, Silvia; Schaffner, Donald W.

    The meat and poultry industry faces ongoing challenges due to the natural association of pathogens of concern (e.g., Salmonella, Campylobacter jejuni, Escherichia coli O157:H7) with a variety of domesticated food animals. In addition, pathogens such as Listeria monocytogenes pose a significant cross-contamination risk during further meat and poultry processing, distribution, and storage. Furthermore, the meat and poultry industries are constantly changing with the addition of new products, use of new raw materials, and targeting of new consumer populations, each of which may give rise to potential new risks. National and international regulations are increasingly using a “risk-based” approach to food safety (where the regulatory focus is driven by the magnitude of the risk), so risk assessment is becoming a valuable tool to systematically organize and evaluate the potential public health risk posed by food processing operations.

  11. Ozone Risk Assessment Utilities

    1999-08-10

    ORAMUS is a user-friendly, menu-driven software system that calculates and displays user-selected risk estimates for health effects attributable to short-term exposure to tropospheric ozone. Inputs to the risk assessment are estimates of exposure to ozone and exposure-response relationships to produce overall risk estimates in the form of probability distributions. Three fundamental models are included: headcount risk, benchmark risk, and hospital admissions. Exposure-response relationships are based on results of controlled human exposure studies. Exposure estimates aremore » based on the EPA''s probabilistic national ambient air quality standards (NAAQS) exposure model, pNEM/Osub3, which simulates air quality associated with attainment of alternative NAAQS. Using ORAMUS, risk results for 27 air quality scenarios, air quality in 9 urban areas, 33 health endpoints, and 4 chronic health endpoints can be calculated.« less

  12. Bio Risk Assessment Tool

    2004-07-22

    The Biosecurity Risk Assessment Tool (BRAT) is a new type of computer application for the screening-level assessment of risk to dairy operations. BRAT for Dairies is designed to be intuitive and easy to use. Users enter basic data-property address, feed management, employee population, and so on - into the interface. Using these data and rules found in an expert system. BRAT for Dairies consults appropriate sections of its database. The expert system determines the riskmore » implications of the basic data, e.g. diseases are closely tied to pen location with respect to the outside world, When the analysis is complete, BRAT for Dairies evaluates and allocates the risk for each hazard, ranks the risks, and displays the results graphically.« less

  13. Northwest Climate Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mote, P.; Dalton, M. M.; Snover, A. K.

    2012-12-01

    As part of the US National Climate Assessment, the Northwest region undertook a process of climate risk assessment. This process included an expert evaluation of previously identified impacts, their likelihoods, and consequences, and engaged experts from both academia and natural resource management practice (federal, tribal, state, local, private, and non-profit) in a workshop setting. An important input was a list of 11 risks compiled by state agencies in Oregon and similar adaptation efforts in Washington. By considering jointly the likelihoods, consequences, and adaptive capacity, participants arrived at an approximately ranked list of risks which was further assessed and prioritized through a series of risk scoring exercises to arrive at the top three climate risks facing the Northwest: 1) changes in amount and timing of streamflow related to snowmelt, causing far-reaching ecological and socioeconomic consequences; 2) coastal erosion and inundation, and changing ocean acidity, combined with low adaptive capacity in the coastal zone to create large risks; and 3) the combined effects of wildfire, insect outbreaks, and diseases will cause large areas of forest mortality and long-term transformation of forest landscapes.

  14. GM risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Sparrow, P A C

    2010-03-01

    GM risk assessments (GMRAs) play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of each GMRA will be able to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to asses any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all "what if" scenarios, based on scientific evidence. This article sets out to provide researchers with helpful guidance notes on producing their own GMRA. While reference is made to UK and EU regulations, the underlying principles and points to consider are generic to most countries.

  15. Biosafety Risk Assessment Model

    SciTech Connect

    Daniel Bowen, Susan Caskey

    2011-05-27

    Software tool based on a structured methodology for conducting laboratory biosafety risk assessments by biosafety experts. Software is based upon an MCDA scheme and uses peer reviewed criteria and weights. The software was developed upon Microsoft’s .net framework. The methodology defines likelihood and consequence of a laboratory exposure for thirteen unique scenarios and provides numerical relative risks for each of the relevant thirteen. The software produces 2-d graphs reflecting the relative risk and a sensitivity analysis which highlights the overall importance of each factor. The software works as a set of questions with absolute scales and uses a weighted additive model to calculate the likelihood and consequence.

  16. Microbial Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ott, C. M.; Mena, K. D.; Nickerson, C.A.; Pierson, D. L.

    2009-01-01

    Historically, microbiological spaceflight requirements have been established in a subjective manner based upon expert opinion of both environmental and clinical monitoring results and the incidence of disease. The limited amount of data, especially from long-duration missions, has created very conservative requirements based primarily on the concentration of microorganisms. Periodic reevaluations of new data from later missions have allowed some relaxation of these stringent requirements. However, the requirements remain very conservative and subjective in nature, and the risk of crew illness due to infectious microorganisms is not well defined. The use of modeling techniques for microbial risk has been applied in the food and potable water industries and has exceptional potential for spaceflight applications. From a productivity standpoint, this type of modeling can (1) decrease unnecessary costs and resource usage and (2) prevent inadequate or inappropriate data for health assessment. In addition, a quantitative model has several advantages for risk management and communication. By identifying the variable components of the model and the knowledge associated with each component, this type of modeling can: (1) Systematically identify and close knowledge gaps, (2) Systematically identify acceptable and unacceptable risks, (3) Improve communication with stakeholders as to the reasons for resource use, and (4) Facilitate external scientific approval of the NASA requirements. The modeling of microbial risk involves the evaluation of several key factors including hazard identification, crew exposure assessment, dose-response assessment, and risk characterization. Many of these factors are similar to conditions found on Earth; however, the spaceflight environment is very specialized as the inhabitants live in a small, semi-closed environment that is often dependent on regenerative life support systems. To further complicate modeling efforts, microbial dose

  17. Biomechanical Rupture Risk Assessment

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    Abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) rupture is a local event in the aneurysm wall that naturally demands tools to assess the risk for local wall rupture. Consequently, global parameters like the maximum diameter and its expansion over time can only give very rough risk indications; therefore, they frequently fail to predict individual risk for AAA rupture. In contrast, the Biomechanical Rupture Risk Assessment (BRRA) method investigates the wall’s risk for local rupture by quantitatively integrating many known AAA rupture risk factors like female sex, large relative expansion, intraluminal thrombus-related wall weakening, and high blood pressure. The BRRA method is almost 20 years old and has progressed considerably in recent years, it can now potentially enrich the diameter indication for AAA repair. The present paper reviews the current state of the BRRA method by summarizing its key underlying concepts (i.e., geometry modeling, biomechanical simulation, and result interpretation). Specifically, the validity of the underlying model assumptions is critically disused in relation to the intended simulation objective (i.e., a clinical AAA rupture risk assessment). Next, reported clinical BRRA validation studies are summarized, and their clinical relevance is reviewed. The BRRA method is a generic, biomechanics-based approach that provides several interfaces to incorporate information from different research disciplines. As an example, the final section of this review suggests integrating growth aspects to (potentially) further improve BRRA sensitivity and specificity. Despite the fact that no prospective validation studies are reported, a significant and still growing body of validation evidence suggests integrating the BRRA method into the clinical decision-making process (i.e., enriching diameter-based decision-making in AAA patient treatment).

  18. Risk Assessment System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1993-01-01

    FEAT, a software system for evaluating risks, was developed by Lockheed and later enhanced under NASA funding. FEAT uses directed graph - or digraph - models to provide information on cause and effect if a set of failure events occurs. James Miller, the program designer at Lockheed, formed DiGraphics, Inc. to market the software that has evolved from FEAT. The Diquest Analyzer, the company's flagship product, assists product designers in identifying the redundancies and weaknesses of a system. The software has applications in the chemical industry for risk assessment, design evaluation, and change management. Additional markets have been found in operations monitoring diagnostics and training of new personnel.

  19. Methylmercury risk assessment issues

    SciTech Connect

    Lipfert, F.W.; Saroff, L.

    1996-07-01

    This paper reviews the general background of health risks associated with mercury (Hg), primarily methylmercury (MeHg), with a view towards application to advanced technologies that could reduce any contributions from coal combustion. The need for accurate assessment of such risks is discussed, since Hg is now widely dispersed in the environment and cannot easily be eliminated. The primary pathway of MeHg intake is through eating contaminated fish. The issues of concern include identification of critical health outcomes (various neurological indices) and their confounding factors, accurate assessment of MeHg intake rates, and appropriate use of dose-response functions. Ultimately, such information will be used to evaluate alternative coal combustion systems.

  20. Biosafety Risk Assessment Model

    2011-05-27

    Software tool based on a structured methodology for conducting laboratory biosafety risk assessments by biosafety experts. Software is based upon an MCDA scheme and uses peer reviewed criteria and weights. The software was developed upon Microsoft’s .net framework. The methodology defines likelihood and consequence of a laboratory exposure for thirteen unique scenarios and provides numerical relative risks for each of the relevant thirteen. The software produces 2-d graphs reflecting the relative risk and a sensitivitymore » analysis which highlights the overall importance of each factor. The software works as a set of questions with absolute scales and uses a weighted additive model to calculate the likelihood and consequence.« less

  1. Risk Assessment Workgroup report.

    PubMed

    Donohue, Joyce; Orme-Zavaleta, Jennifer; Burch, Michael; Dietrich, Daniel; Hawkins, Belinda; Lloyd, Tony; Munns, Wayne; Steevens, Jeffery; Steffensen, Dennis; Stone, Dave; Tango, Peter

    2008-01-01

    The Risk Assessment Work Group focused on six charge questions related to CHABS, cyanobacteria and their toxins. The charge questions covered the following topics: Research needed to reduce uncertainty in establishing health based guidelines. Research that minimize the cost and maximize the benefits of various regulatory approaches. Exposure pathways for receptors of concern. Data available to support the derivation of health-based guideline values for harmful cyanobacterial algal blooms. Ecological services that guidelines or regulations should protect? A framework for making risk management determinations that incorporates consideration of the characteristics of CHABs, the risk for human health, ecosystem viability, and the costs and benefits of CHABs detection and management? The Work Group concluded that there is a considerable amount of human case-study data and information from animal studies to demonstrate that cyanobacterial toxins pose a hazard to humans, domestic animals, wildlife, and the ecosystem. However, the data on dose-response are limited and confounded by a lack of sufficient pure toxin to conduct most of the toxicological studies that will be needed in order to answer remaining questions on risk, and to provide the data for quantitative dose-response analysis. The Work Group recommended that research on purification or synthesis of pure toxin must be accomplished before the large scale studies to establish dose-response relationships will be possible. As the necessary-pure toxins become available, the Work Group recommended that studies be prioritized by the impact that they will have on reducing the uncertainty in the risk assessment in order to minimize the research costs and maximize the risk assessment benefits. Use of quantitative structure activity relationships (QSAR) and toxicity equivalency factor studies are also recommended as approaches for filling dose-response data gaps. The Work Group recognized that CHABs rarely introduce single

  2. Risk assessment handbook

    SciTech Connect

    Farmer, F.G.; Jones, J.L.; Hunt, R.N.; Roush, M.L.; Wierman, T.E.

    1990-09-01

    The Probabilistic Risk Assessment Unit at EG&G Idaho has developed this handbook to provide guidance to a facility manager exploring the potential benefit to be gained by performance of a risk assessment properly scoped to meet local needs. This document is designed to help the manager control the resources expended commensurate with the risks being managed and to assure that the products can be used programmatically to support future needs in order to derive maximum beneflt from the resources expended. We present a logical and functional mapping scheme between several discrete phases of project definition to ensure that a potential customer, working with an analyst, is able to define the areas of interest and that appropriate methods are employed in the analysis. In addition the handbook is written to provide a high-level perspective for the analyst. Previously, the needed information was either scattered or existed only in the minds of experienced analysts. By compiling this information and exploring the breadth of knowledge which exists within the members of the PRA Unit, the functional relationships between the customers` needs and the product have been established.

  3. Risk assessment handbook

    SciTech Connect

    Farmer, F.G.; Jones, J.L.; Hunt, R.N.; Roush, M.L.; Wierman, T.E.

    1990-09-01

    The Probabilistic Risk Assessment Unit at EG G Idaho has developed this handbook to provide guidance to a facility manager exploring the potential benefit to be gained by performance of a risk assessment properly scoped to meet local needs. This document is designed to help the manager control the resources expended commensurate with the risks being managed and to assure that the products can be used programmatically to support future needs in order to derive maximum beneflt from the resources expended. We present a logical and functional mapping scheme between several discrete phases of project definition to ensure that a potential customer, working with an analyst, is able to define the areas of interest and that appropriate methods are employed in the analysis. In addition the handbook is written to provide a high-level perspective for the analyst. Previously, the needed information was either scattered or existed only in the minds of experienced analysts. By compiling this information and exploring the breadth of knowledge which exists within the members of the PRA Unit, the functional relationships between the customers' needs and the product have been established.

  4. Risk assessment and risk management of mycotoxins.

    PubMed

    2012-01-01

    Risk assessment is the process of quantifying the magnitude and exposure, or probability, of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from certain agents or activities. Here, we summarize the four steps of risk assessment: hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Risk assessments using these principles have been conducted on the major mycotoxins (aflatoxins, fumonisins, ochratoxin A, deoxynivalenol, and zearalenone) by various regulatory agencies for the purpose of setting food safety guidelines. We critically evaluate the impact of these risk assessment parameters on the estimated global burden of the associated diseases as well as the impact of regulatory measures on food supply and international trade. Apart from the well-established risk posed by aflatoxins, many uncertainties still exist about risk assessments for the other major mycotoxins, often reflecting a lack of epidemiological data. Differences exist in the risk management strategies and in the ways different governments impose regulations and technologies to reduce levels of mycotoxins in the food-chain. Regulatory measures have very little impact on remote rural and subsistence farming communities in developing countries, in contrast to developed countries, where regulations are strictly enforced to reduce and/or remove mycotoxin contamination. However, in the absence of the relevant technologies or the necessary infrastructure, we highlight simple intervention practices to reduce mycotoxin contamination in the field and/or prevent mycotoxin formation during storage. PMID:23477199

  5. Optimal Temporal Risk Assessment

    PubMed Central

    Balci, Fuat; Freestone, David; Simen, Patrick; deSouza, Laura; Cohen, Jonathan D.; Holmes, Philip

    2011-01-01

    Time is an essential feature of most decisions, because the reward earned from decisions frequently depends on the temporal statistics of the environment (e.g., on whether decisions must be made under deadlines). Accordingly, evolution appears to have favored a mechanism that predicts intervals in the seconds to minutes range with high accuracy on average, but significant variability from trial to trial. Importantly, the subjective sense of time that results is sufficiently imprecise that maximizing rewards in decision-making can require substantial behavioral adjustments (e.g., accumulating less evidence for a decision in order to beat a deadline). Reward maximization in many daily decisions therefore requires optimal temporal risk assessment. Here, we review the temporal decision-making literature, conduct secondary analyses of relevant published datasets, and analyze the results of a new experiment. The paper is organized in three parts. In the first part, we review literature and analyze existing data suggesting that animals take account of their inherent behavioral variability (their “endogenous timing uncertainty”) in temporal decision-making. In the second part, we review literature that quantitatively demonstrates nearly optimal temporal risk assessment with sub-second and supra-second intervals using perceptual tasks (with humans and mice) and motor timing tasks (with humans). We supplement this section with original research that tested human and rat performance on a task that requires finding the optimal balance between two time-dependent quantities for reward maximization. This optimal balance in turn depends on the level of timing uncertainty. Corroborating the reviewed literature, humans and rats exhibited nearly optimal temporal risk assessment in this task. In the third section, we discuss the role of timing uncertainty in reward maximization in two-choice perceptual decision-making tasks and review literature that implicates timing uncertainty

  6. Risk Assessment: Implications for Biologic Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ost, David H.

    1995-01-01

    Discusses risk assessment, including risk assessment as a modeling process, models and social values, political decision making, the public, and risk assessment techniques in the biology classroom. (MKR)

  7. Practical approaches to risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Brooke-Taylor, S

    2001-06-01

    The importance of using risk assessment in developing food regulations is growing with the globalization of our food supply. The World Trade Organization has entrenched the principles of science-based risk assessment in the Agreement on Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures. The relevant international organization for food standards, the Codex Alimentarius Commission, recognises risk analysis, and its component parts risk assessment, risk management and risk communication, as the basis for scientific decision-making. Risk assessment comprises two activities: hazard evaluation; and exposure estimation. A hazard may be chemical, microbiological or nutritional in origin. The practical application of risk assessment in Australia is illustrated in this presentation by four examples involving: (1) food additives, (2) microbiological safety of imported raw milk cheeses, (3) genetically modified foods and (4) imported food inspection.

  8. Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB)

    Cancer.gov

    The Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB) focuses on the development, evaluation, and dissemination of high-quality risk factor metrics, methods, tools, technologies, and resources for use across the cancer research continuum, and the assessment of cancer-related risk factors in the population.

  9. Computer Security Risk Assessment

    1992-02-11

    LAVA/CS (LAVA for Computer Security) is an application of the Los Alamos Vulnerability Assessment (LAVA) methodology specific to computer and information security. The software serves as a generic tool for identifying vulnerabilities in computer and information security safeguards systems. Although it does not perform a full risk assessment, the results from its analysis may provide valuable insights into security problems. LAVA/CS assumes that the system is exposed to both natural and environmental hazards and tomore » deliberate malevolent actions by either insiders or outsiders. The user in the process of answering the LAVA/CS questionnaire identifies missing safeguards in 34 areas ranging from password management to personnel security and internal audit practices. Specific safeguards protecting a generic set of assets (or targets) from a generic set of threats (or adversaries) are considered. There are four generic assets: the facility, the organization''s environment; the hardware, all computer-related hardware; the software, the information in machine-readable form stored both on-line or on transportable media; and the documents and displays, the information in human-readable form stored as hard-copy materials (manuals, reports, listings in full-size or microform), film, and screen displays. Two generic threats are considered: natural and environmental hazards, storms, fires, power abnormalities, water and accidental maintenance damage; and on-site human threats, both intentional and accidental acts attributable to a perpetrator on the facility''s premises.« less

  10. Integrating Risk Context into Risk Assessments: The Risk Context Scale

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kroner, Daryl G.; Gray, Andrew L.; Goodrich, Ben

    2013-01-01

    The context in which offenders are released is an important component of conducting risk assessments. A sample of 257 supervised male parolees were followed in the community ("M" = 870 days) after an initial risk assessment. Drawing on community-based information, the purpose of this study was to evaluate the recently developed Risk Context Scale.…

  11. Information needs for risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    DeRosa, C.T.; Choudhury, H.; Schoeny, R.S.

    1990-12-31

    Risk assessment can be thought of as a conceptual approach to bridge the gap between the available data and the ultimate goal of characterizing the risk or hazard associated with a particular environmental problem. To lend consistency to and to promote quality in the process, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) published Guidelines for Risk Assessment of Carcinogenicity, Developmental Toxicity, Germ Cell Mutagenicity and Exposure Assessment, and Risk Assessment of Chemical Mixtures. The guidelines provide a framework for organizing the information, evaluating data, and for carrying out the risk assessment in a scientifically plausible manner. In the absence of sufficient scientific information or when abundant data are available, the guidelines provide alternative methodologies that can be employed in the risk assessment. 4 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.

  12. Probabilistic Risk Assessment: A Bibliography

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2000-01-01

    Probabilistic risk analysis is an integration of failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA), fault tree analysis and other techniques to assess the potential for failure and to find ways to reduce risk. This bibliography references 160 documents in the NASA STI Database that contain the major concepts, probabilistic risk assessment, risk and probability theory, in the basic index or major subject terms, An abstract is included with most citations, followed by the applicable subject terms.

  13. [Forensic assessment of violence risk].

    PubMed

    Pujol Robinat, Amadeo; Mohíno Justes, Susana; Gómez-Durán, Esperanza L

    2014-03-01

    Over the last 20 years there have been steps forward in the field of scientific research on prediction and handling different violent behaviors. In this work we go over the classic concept of "criminal dangerousness" and the more current of "violence risk assessment". We analyze the evolution of such assessment from the practice of non-structured clinical expert opinion to current actuarial methods and structured clinical expert opinion. Next we approach the problem of assessing physical violence risk analyzing the HCR-20 (Assessing Risk for Violence) and we also review the classic and complex subject of the relation between mental disease and violence. One of the most problematic types of violence, difficult to assess and predict, is sexual violence. We study the different actuarial and sexual violence risk prediction instruments and in the end we advise an integral approach to the problem. We also go through partner violence risk assessment, describing the most frequently used scales, especially SARA (Spouse Assault Risk Assessment) and EPV-R. Finally we give practical advice on risk assessment, emphasizing the importance of having maximum information about the case, carrying out a clinical examination, psychopathologic exploration and the application of one of the described risk assessment scales. We'll have to express an opinion about the dangerousness/risk of future violence from the subject and some recommendations on the conduct to follow and the most advisable treatment.

  14. [Forensic assessment of violence risk].

    PubMed

    Pujol Robinat, Amadeo; Mohíno Justes, Susana; Gómez-Durán, Esperanza L

    2014-03-01

    Over the last 20 years there have been steps forward in the field of scientific research on prediction and handling different violent behaviors. In this work we go over the classic concept of "criminal dangerousness" and the more current of "violence risk assessment". We analyze the evolution of such assessment from the practice of non-structured clinical expert opinion to current actuarial methods and structured clinical expert opinion. Next we approach the problem of assessing physical violence risk analyzing the HCR-20 (Assessing Risk for Violence) and we also review the classic and complex subject of the relation between mental disease and violence. One of the most problematic types of violence, difficult to assess and predict, is sexual violence. We study the different actuarial and sexual violence risk prediction instruments and in the end we advise an integral approach to the problem. We also go through partner violence risk assessment, describing the most frequently used scales, especially SARA (Spouse Assault Risk Assessment) and EPV-R. Finally we give practical advice on risk assessment, emphasizing the importance of having maximum information about the case, carrying out a clinical examination, psychopathologic exploration and the application of one of the described risk assessment scales. We'll have to express an opinion about the dangerousness/risk of future violence from the subject and some recommendations on the conduct to follow and the most advisable treatment. PMID:24913749

  15. Topographical Risk Assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Phil Daling, PNNL

    2002-09-24

    TRA was developed as a computer tool for the DOE Office of River Protection (ORP) that will provides the capability to visualize and rapidly understand information about the risks associated with the River protection Project (RPP). Previously, technical and programmatic risk management within ORP had relied heavily on risk lists and other techniques that presented risk information but did not place it in perspective of the overall project. This made it difficult for ORP senior management to understand the risk information presented, prioritize their activities, and provide direction to ORP staff and contractors about how to manage specific risk events. The TRA visualization tool, provides the appropriate context and perspective that allows senior management to effectively manage risks. Basically, the TRA overlays information about risks associated with specific activities and their magnitudes on top of the project baseline schedule. this provides senior management with information about the magnitudes of specific risk events as well as their timing, and allows them to focus their attention and resources on the risks that merit attention and possible further action. The TRA tool can also be used to display other types of information associated with scheduled activities, such as cost to date, technical performance, schedule performance, etc. Additionally, the base of the 3-dimensional representation can be changed to other types of graphics, such as maps, process flow diagrams, etc., which allows the display of other types of informatio, such as hazards, health and safety risks, and system availability.

  16. Topographical Risk Assessment

    2002-09-24

    TRA was developed as a computer tool for the DOE Office of River Protection (ORP) that will provides the capability to visualize and rapidly understand information about the risks associated with the River protection Project (RPP). Previously, technical and programmatic risk management within ORP had relied heavily on risk lists and other techniques that presented risk information but did not place it in perspective of the overall project. This made it difficult for ORP seniormore » management to understand the risk information presented, prioritize their activities, and provide direction to ORP staff and contractors about how to manage specific risk events. The TRA visualization tool, provides the appropriate context and perspective that allows senior management to effectively manage risks. Basically, the TRA overlays information about risks associated with specific activities and their magnitudes on top of the project baseline schedule. this provides senior management with information about the magnitudes of specific risk events as well as their timing, and allows them to focus their attention and resources on the risks that merit attention and possible further action. The TRA tool can also be used to display other types of information associated with scheduled activities, such as cost to date, technical performance, schedule performance, etc. Additionally, the base of the 3-dimensional representation can be changed to other types of graphics, such as maps, process flow diagrams, etc., which allows the display of other types of informatio, such as hazards, health and safety risks, and system availability.« less

  17. Cancer Risk Prediction and Assessment

    Cancer.gov

    Cancer prediction models provide an important approach to assessing risk and prognosis by identifying individuals at high risk, facilitating the design and planning of clinical cancer trials, fostering the development of benefit-risk indices, and enabling estimates of the population burden and cost of cancer.

  18. Guide for ecological risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    1998-04-01

    Ecological risk assessment evaluates the likelihood that adverse ecological effects may occur or are occurring as a result of exposure to one or more stressors. Ecological risk assessment provides a critical element for environmental decision making by giving risk managers an approach for considering available scientific information along with the other factors they need to consider (e.g., social, legal, political, or economic) in selecting a course of action. The primary audience for this document is risk assessors and risk managers at EPA, although these Guidelines also may be useful to others outside the Agency.

  19. Risk Assessment/Management Tool

    2010-12-31

    RAMTool performs the following: • A tool to perform facility and programmatic risk assessments, produce risk registers, develop risk management plans (RMPs), link risks to improvement/risk-reduction projects, and actively manage risks • Ability to conduct risk assessments. Ease of determination of probability and consequence based on industry standard risk matrices. Complies with site risk management performance document. Provides multiple outputs/report for required risk forms. Conduct quick risk data analysis. • Performs/calculates a facility risk factormore » (RF) and a programmatic RF. Supports project and initiative prioritization and funding in order to make solid decisions on risk reduction. Assigns responsibility and accountability at a risk owner (RO) level. Monitors and tracks progress toward completing mitigation strategies. Ability to import massive amounts of data at the push of a button. Integrates development of a Risk Management Plan (RMP) Built for ease-of-use – design, built, and used by technical/management personnel. Can be customized (functions and/or reports) for further analysis« less

  20. Risk Assessment/Management Tool

    SciTech Connect

    Carlos Castillo, Jerel Nelson

    2010-12-31

    RAMTool performs the following: • A tool to perform facility and programmatic risk assessments, produce risk registers, develop risk management plans (RMPs), link risks to improvement/risk-reduction projects, and actively manage risks • Ability to conduct risk assessments. Ease of determination of probability and consequence based on industry standard risk matrices. Complies with site risk management performance document. Provides multiple outputs/report for required risk forms. Conduct quick risk data analysis. • Performs/calculates a facility risk factor (RF) and a programmatic RF. Supports project and initiative prioritization and funding in order to make solid decisions on risk reduction. Assigns responsibility and accountability at a risk owner (RO) level. Monitors and tracks progress toward completing mitigation strategies. Ability to import massive amounts of data at the push of a button. Integrates development of a Risk Management Plan (RMP) Built for ease-of-use – design, built, and used by technical/management personnel. Can be customized (functions and/or reports) for further analysis

  1. Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Edwards, Michelle

    2010-01-01

    Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

  2. H+, Water and Urea Transport in the Inner Medullary Collecting Duct and Their Role in the Prevention and Pathogenesis of Renal Stone Disease

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wall, Susan M.; Klein, Janet D.

    2008-09-01

    The inner medullary collecting duct (IMCD) is the final site within the kidney for the reabsorption of urea, water and electrolytes and for the secretion of H+ before the luminal fluid becomes the final urine. Transporters expressed in the IMCD contribute to the generation of the large ion gradients that exist between the interstitium and the collecting duct lumen. Thus, the luminal fluid within the human IMCD can reach an osmolality of 1200 mOsm/kg H2O and a pH of 4. This ability of the human nephron to concentrate and acidify the urine might predispose to stone formation. However, under treatment conditions that predispose to stone formation, such as during hypercalciuria, the kidney mitigates stone formation by reducing solute concentration by reducing H2O reabsorption. Moreover, the kidney attenuates stone formation by tightly controlling acid-base balance, which prevents the bone loss, hypocitraturia and hypercalciuria observed during metabolic acidosis by augmenting net H+ excretion by tightly regulating H+ transporter function and through luminal buffering, particularly with NH3. This article will review the ion transporters present in the mammalian IMCD and their role in the prevention and in the pathogenesis of renal stone formation.

  3. Balancing risk: Ethical issues in risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Longstreth, J.D.

    1992-06-01

    The last five decades have seen an explosive growth of information, accompanied by the development of a strong environmental movement. These two factors have been critical contributors to the development of the scientific discipline that has come to be called risk analysis or risk assessment. In this context, risk assessment can be described as an analytic approach used to organize large amounts of information from diverse disciplines so as to evaluate the possible impacts of pollution on human health and the environment. Early efforts in this field focused on the protection of human health. More recently, however, it has been realized that humans and their environment are intimately linked and that environmental impacts must also be evaluated. At some point, it seems likely that the joint goals of protecting human health and the environment may come into conflict. This essay reviews current developments in the assessment of risks both to humans and the environment in order to expose similarities and differences with the ultimate aim of opening a dialogue between scientists in the different disciplines so that evaluation strategies can be designed which will enable decision makers to make trade-offs between human health and environmental risk is an informed and egalitarian way.

  4. Risk and Risk Assessment in Environmental Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chiras, Daniel D.

    1982-01-01

    Risk assessment (the identification of hazards, the determination of the probability of a hazardous event occurring, and an estimation of the severity of such an event's occurrence) is suggested as a technique to be used to analyze current issues in environmental education in an objective manner. (PEB)

  5. Quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Weinstock, Robert M (Inventor); Smidts, Carol S (Inventor); Mosleh, Ali (Inventor); Chang, Yung-Hsien (Inventor); Swaminathan, Sankaran (Inventor); Groen, Francisco J (Inventor); Tan, Zhibin (Inventor)

    2001-01-01

    A quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS) builds a risk model of a system for which risk of failure is being assessed, then analyzes the risk of the system corresponding to the risk model. The QRAS performs sensitivity analysis of the risk model by altering fundamental components and quantifications built into the risk model, then re-analyzes the risk of the system using the modifications. More particularly, the risk model is built by building a hierarchy, creating a mission timeline, quantifying failure modes, and building/editing event sequence diagrams. Multiplicities, dependencies, and redundancies of the system are included in the risk model. For analysis runs, a fixed baseline is first constructed and stored. This baseline contains the lowest level scenarios, preserved in event tree structure. The analysis runs, at any level of the hierarchy and below, access this baseline for risk quantitative computation as well as ranking of particular risks. A standalone Tool Box capability exists, allowing the user to store application programs within QRAS.

  6. Risk assessment in international operations

    SciTech Connect

    Stricklin, Daniela L.

    2008-11-15

    During international peace-keeping missions, a diverse number of non-battle hazards may be encountered, which range from heavily polluted areas, endemic disease, toxic industrial materials, local violence, traffic, and even psychological factors. Hence, elevated risk levels from a variety of sources are encountered during deployments. With the emphasis within the Swedish military moving from national defense towards prioritization of international missions in atypical environments, the risk of health consequences, including long term health effects, has received greater consideration. The Swedish military is interested in designing an optimal approach for assessment of health threats during deployments. The Medical Intelligence group at FOI CBRN Security and Defence in Umea has, on request from and in collaboration with the Swedish Armed Forces, reviewed a variety of international health threat and risk assessment models for military operations. Application of risk assessment methods used in different phases of military operations will be reviewed. An overview of different international approaches used in operational risk management (ORM) will be presented as well as a discussion of the specific needs and constraints for health risk assessment in military operations. This work highlights the specific challenges of risk assessment that are unique to the deployment setting such as the assessment of exposures to a variety of diverse hazards concurrently.

  7. Risk assessment in international operations.

    PubMed

    Stricklin, Daniela L

    2008-11-15

    During international peace-keeping missions, a diverse number of non-battle hazards may be encountered, which range from heavily polluted areas, endemic disease, toxic industrial materials, local violence, traffic, and even psychological factors. Hence, elevated risk levels from a variety of sources are encountered during deployments. With the emphasis within the Swedish military moving from national defense towards prioritization of international missions in atypical environments, the risk of health consequences, including long term health effects, has received greater consideration. The Swedish military is interested in designing an optimal approach for assessment of health threats during deployments. The Medical Intelligence group at FOI CBRN Security and Defence in Umeå has, on request from and in collaboration with the Swedish Armed Forces, reviewed a variety of international health threat and risk assessment models for military operations. Application of risk assessment methods used in different phases of military operations will be reviewed. An overview of different international approaches used in operational risk management (ORM) will be presented as well as a discussion of the specific needs and constraints for health risk assessment in military operations. This work highlights the specific challenges of risk assessment that are unique to the deployment setting such as the assessment of exposures to a variety of diverse hazards concurrently. PMID:18325560

  8. Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments.

    PubMed

    Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems - examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

  9. Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments

    PubMed Central

    Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines. PMID:26301217

  10. Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments.

    PubMed

    Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems - examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines. PMID:26301217

  11. Qualitative methods for assessing risk

    SciTech Connect

    Mahn, J.A.; Hannaman, G.W.; Kryska, P.

    1995-03-01

    The purpose of this document is to describe a qualitative risk assessment process that supplements the requirements of DOE/AL 5481.1B. Although facility managers have a choice of assessing risk either quantitatively or qualitatively, trade offs are involved in making the most appropriate choice for a given application. The results that can be obtained from a quantitative risk assessment are significantly more robust than those results derived from a qualitative approach. However, the advantages derived from quantitative risk assessment are achieved at a greater expenditure of money, time and convenience. This document provides the elements of a framework for performing a much less costly qualitative risk assessment, while retaining the best attributes of quantitative methods. The approach discussed herein will; (1) provide facility managers with the tools to prepare consistent, site wide assessments, and (2) aid the reviewers who may be tasked to evaluate the assessments. Added cost/benefit measures of the qualitative methodology include the identification of mechanisms for optimally allocating resources for minimizing risk in an expeditious, and fiscally responsible manner.

  12. ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Ecological Soil Screening Level (Eco-SSL) Work Group, composed of scientists and risk assessors from EPA, Environment Canada, DOE, Army, Navy, Air Force, states, industry, academia, and consulting companies, has been working on the development of scientifically sound, ecologi...

  13. Caries management by risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Young, Douglas A; Featherstone, John D B

    2013-02-01

    Caries disease is multifactorial. Whether caries disease will be expressed and damage dental hard tissue is dependent on the patient's own unique make-up of pathogenic risk factors and protective factors. Objectives This manuscript will review the science of managing caries disease based on assessing caries risk. Methods The caries balance/imbalance model and a practical caries risk assessment procedure for patients aged 6 years through adult will illustrate how treatment options can be based on caries risk. Results Neither the forms nor the clinical protocols are meant to imply there is currently only one correct way this can be achieved, rather are used in this manuscript as examples only. Conclusions It is important to have the forms and protocols simple and easy to understand when implementing caries management by risk assessment into clinical practice. The science of CAMBRA based on the caries balance/imbalance model was reviewed and an example protocol was presented.

  14. The risk assessment information system

    SciTech Connect

    Kerr, S.B.; Bonczek, R.R.; McGinn, C.W.; Land, M.L.; Bloom, L.D.; Sample, B.E.; Dolislager, F.G.

    1998-06-01

    In an effort to provide service-oriented environmental risk assessment expertise, the Department of Energy (DOE) Center for Risk Excellence (CRE) and DOE Oak Ridge Operations Office (ORO) are sponsoring Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) to develop a web-based system for disseminating risk tools and information to its users. This system, the Risk Assessment Information System (RAIS), was initially developed to support the site-specific needs of the DOE-ORO Environmental Restoration Risk Assessment Program. With support from the CRE, the system is currently being expanded to benefit all DOE risk information users and can be tailored to meet site-specific needs. Taking advantage of searchable and executable databases, menu-driven queries, and data downloads, using the latest World Wide Web technologies, the RAIS offers essential tools that are used in the risk assessment process or anywhere from project scoping to implementation. The RAIS tools can be located directly at http://risk.lsd.ornl.gov/homepage/rap{_}tool.htm or through the CRE`s homepage at http://www.doe.gov/riskcenter/home.html.

  15. Improving pandemic influenza risk assessment

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Assessing the pandemic risk posed by specific non-human influenza A viruses remains a complex challenge. As influenza virus genome sequencing becomes cheaper, faster and more readily available, the ability to predict pandemic potential from sequence data could transform pandemic influenza risk asses...

  16. Carcinogen risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Hazelwoold, R.N.

    1987-01-01

    This article describes the methods by which risk factors for carcinogenic hazards are determined and the limitations inherent in the process. From statistical and epidemiological studies, the major identifiable factors related to cancer in the United States were determined to be cigarette smoking, diet, reproductive and sexual behavior, infections, ultraviolet and ionizing radiation, and alcohol consumption. The incidence of lung cancer due to air pollutants was estimated to be less than 2%. Research needs were discussed.

  17. Space Radiation Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blakely, E.

    Evaluation of potential health effects from radiation exposure during and after deep space travel is important for the future of manned missions To date manned missions have been limited to near-Earth orbits with the moon our farthest distance from earth Historical space radiation career exposures for astronauts from all NASA Missions show that early missions involved total exposures of less than about 20 mSv With the advent of Skylab and Mir total career exposure levels increased to a maximum of nearly 200 mSv Missions in deep space with the requisite longer duration of the missions planned may pose greater risks due to the increased potential for exposure to complex radiation fields comprised of a broad range of radiation types and energies from cosmic and unpredictable solar sources The first steps in the evaluation of risks are underway with bio- and physical-dosimetric measurements on both commercial flight personnel and international space crews who have experience on near-earth orbits and the necessary theoretical modeling of particle-track traversal per cell including the contributing effects of delta-rays in particle exposures An assumption for biologic effects due to exposure of radiation in deep space is that they differ quantitatively and qualitatively from that on earth The dose deposition and density pattern of heavy charged particles are very different from those of sparsely ionizing radiation The potential risks resulting from exposure to radiation in deep space are cancer non-cancer and genetic effects Radiation from

  18. Taking the Risk Out of Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2005-01-01

    The ability to understand risks and have the right strategies in place when risky events occur is essential in the workplace. More and more organizations are being confronted with concerns over how to measure their risks or what kind of risks they can take when certain events transpire that could have a negative impact. NASA is one organization that faces these challenges on a daily basis, as effective risk management is critical to the success of its missions especially the Space Shuttle missions. On July 29, 1996, former NASA Administrator Daniel Goldin charged NASA s Office of Safety and Mission Assurance with developing a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) tool to support decisions on the funding of Space Shuttle upgrades. When issuing the directive, Goldin said, "Since I came to NASA [in 1992], we've spent billions of dollars on Shuttle upgrades without knowing how much they improve safety. I want a tool to help base upgrade decisions on risk." Work on the PRA tool began immediately. The resulting prototype, the Quantitative Risk Assessment System (QRAS) Version 1.0, was jointly developed by NASA s Marshall Space Flight Center, its Office of Safety and Mission Assurance, and researchers at the University of Maryland. QRAS software automatically expands the reliability logic models of systems to evaluate the probability of highly detrimental outcomes occurring in complex systems that are subject to potential accident scenarios. Even in its earliest forms, QRAS was used to begin PRA modeling of the Space Shuttle. In parallel, the development of QRAS continued, with the goal of making it a world-class tool, one that was especially suited to NASA s unique needs. From the beginning, an important conceptual goal in the development of QRAS was for it to help bridge the gap between the professional risk analyst and the design engineer. In the past, only the professional risk analyst could perform, modify, use, and perhaps even adequately understand PRA. NASA wanted

  19. Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment

    MedlinePlus

    ... Find a Specialist Share Twitter Facebook SCA Risk Assessment Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) occurs abruptly and without ... of all ages and health conditions. Start Risk Assessment The Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment Tool ...

  20. Qualitative methods for assessing risk

    SciTech Connect

    Mahn, J.A.; Hannaman, G.W.; Kryska, P.

    1995-04-01

    The Department of Energy`s (DOE) non-nuclear facilities generally require only a qualitative accident analysis to assess facility risks in accordance with DOE Order 5481.1B, Safety Analysis and Review System. Achieving a meaningful qualitative assessment of risk necessarily requires the use of suitable non-numerical assessment criteria. Typically, the methods and criteria for assigning facility-specific accident scenarios to the qualitative severity and likelihood classification system in the DOE order requires significant judgment in many applications. Systematic methods for more consistently assigning the total accident scenario frequency and associated consequences are required to substantiate and enhance future risk ranking between various activities at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL). SNL`s Risk Management and National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) Department has developed an improved methodology for performing qualitative risk assessments in accordance wi the DOE order requirements. Products of this effort are an improved set of qualitative description that permit (1) definition of the severity for both technical and programmatic consequences that may result from a variety of accident scenarios, and (2) qualitative representation of the likelihood of occurrence. These sets of descriptions are intended to facilitate proper application of DOE criteria for assessing facility risks.

  1. Risk assessment of sensitizing agents.

    PubMed

    Gerberick, G F

    1994-01-01

    This review describes an approach that has been used to assess the skin sensitization risk of new product ingredients prior to and after marketing. The risk assessment process utilizes a comparative toxicological approach in which data on the inherent toxicity of a material and the exposure to it through manufacturing or consumer use or foreseeable misuse are integrated and compared with data generated by 'benchmark' materials of similar chemistry or product application, or both. This approach has been valuable in providing an accurate assessment of skin sensitization potential and the basis for eventual safe marketing of a wide range of consumer household and personal care products and topical pharmaceuticals.

  2. Comparison of retrograde intrarenal surgery and mini-percutaneous nephrolithotomy in management of lower-pole renal stones with a diameter of smaller than 15 mm.

    PubMed

    Kirac, Mustafa; Bozkurt, Ömer Faruk; Tunc, Lutfi; Guneri, Cagri; Unsal, Ali; Biri, Hasan

    2013-06-01

    The aim of this study was to compare the outcomes of retrograde intrarenal surgery (RIRS) and miniaturized percutaneous nephrolithotomy (mini-PNL) in management of lower-pole renal stones with a diameter smaller than 15 mm. Between December 2009 and July 2012, the patients with the diagnosis of lower-pole stones were evaluated by ultrasonography, intravenous pyelography and computed tomography. The records of 73 evaluable patients who underwent mini-PNL (n = 37) or RIRS (n = 36) for lower-pole (LP) stones with diameter smaller than 15 mm were reviewed retrospectively. Of the 73 patients, 37 underwent mini-PNL and 36 underwent RIRS. The stone-free rates were 89.1 and 88.8 % for mini-PNL and RIRS groups, respectively. The mean operation time was 53.7 ± 14.5 in the mini-PNL group but 66.4 ± 15.8 in the RIRS group (P = 0.01). The mean fluoroscopy times and hospitalization times were significantly higher in the mini-PNL group. There was no major complication in any patient. RIRS and mini-PNL are safe and effective methods for treatment of LP calculi with a diameter smaller than 15 mm. RIRS is a non-invasive and feasible treatment option, and has also short hospitalization time, low morbidity and complication rate. It may be an alternative of mini-PNL in the treatment LP calculi with smaller than 15 mm.

  3. EPA's neurotoxicity risk assessment guidelines.

    PubMed

    Boyes, W K; Dourson, M L; Patterson, J; Tilson, H A; Sette, W F; MacPhail, R C; Li, A A; O'Donoghue, J L

    1997-12-01

    The proposed Neurotoxicity Risk Assessment Guidelines (U.S. EPA, 1995c Fed. Reg. 60(192), 52032-52056) of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) were the subject of a workshop at the 1997 Meeting of the Society of Toxicology. The workshop considered the role of guidelines in the risk assessment process, the primary features, scientific basis, and implications of the guidelines for EPA program offices, as well as for industrial neurotoxicologists from the perspectives of both pesticides and toxic substances regulation. The U.S. National Academy of Sciences (NAS, 1983, Risk Assessment in the Federal Government: Managing the Process) established a framework for distinguishing risk management from risk assessment, the latter being the result of integrating hazard identification, hazard characterization, and exposure assessment data. The guidelines are intended to establish operating principles that will be used when examining data in a risk assessment context. The proposed neurotoxicity risk assessment guidelines provide a conceptual framework for deciding whether or not a chemically induced effect can be considered to be evidence of neurotoxicity. Topics in the proposed guidelines include structural and functional effects, dose-response and -duration considerations, and relationships between effects. Among the issues that must be considered are the multiplicity of chemical effects, the levels of biological organization in the nervous system, and the tests, measurements, and protocols used. Judgment of the adversity of an effect depends heavily on the amount and types of data available. The attribution of a chemically induced effect to an action on the nervous system depends on several factors such as the quality of the study, the nature of the outcome, dose-response and time-response relationships, and the possible involvement of nonneural factors. The guidelines will also serve as a reference for those conducting neurotoxicity testing, as well as establish a

  4. Collision risk assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sánchez Ortiz, N.; Belló Mora, M.; Graziano, M.; Pina Caballero, F.; Sánchez Pérez, J. M.; Klinkrad, H.

    2001-10-01

    Avoidance of near misses or collisions is required for almost all satellites on orbit, but it is of particular interest for manned missions and spacecraft at densely populated regions. In order to avoid these possible collisions, it is needed to determine a possible conjunction and its associated uncertainty. Two main constraints must be taken into account when a tool to forecast the collision risk of an object is being developed: the high number of objects in space and the accuracy of the catalogued object data. The number of objects on Earth orbit makes impossible to propagate all the catalogued objects, thus filtering and parallel processing techniques are presented. The accuracy of the catalogued object data and the propagation of the error over the time identify a position ellipsoid of error, whose behaviour has an important influence on some parameters on the filtering techniques and the way the collision probability is computed. Some collision probability methods are presented.

  5. Risk assessment methodologies for biotechnology impact assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gillett, James W.

    1986-07-01

    By combining hazard assessment of effects of a potential biotechnology product with exposure assessments based on study of the genetically engineered organism's fate, conclusions may be reached about the risk involved in release of the product to the environment. In order to make this risk assessment, criteria (including regulatory endpoints) must be established and then developed further against a data base from well-accepted tests. Other aspects requiring research and development include test evaluation, quality assurance, statistical procedures, and methods of identifying and monitoring not only the nominal organism(s) in the products, but also any contaminating material or organisms to which the genetically engineered components may be transferred in the environment. Application of microcosm technology to testing of genetically engineered organisms is expected to be important, since these systems may be used safely to understand fate and effects prior to (or in place of) testing the product in the environment. Limitations in the use of microcosms may be offset by the cost-effectiveness and incisiveness of results, as has been shown for other pollutants. Risk management for biotechnology products currently lacks an adequate background, but components of the process exist or can be developed. New resources, in terms of personnel, training, facilities, and funding, will be needed in order to apply the risk assessment paradigm used for toxic chemicals and pesticides. We will need to know:

  6. Topics in cancer risk assessment.

    PubMed Central

    Olin, S S; Neumann, D A; Foran, J A; Scarano, G J

    1997-01-01

    The estimation of carcinogenic risks from exposure to chemicals has become an integral part of the regulatory process in the United States within the past decade. With it have come considerable controversy and debate over the scientific merits and shortcomings of the methods and their impact on risk management decisions. In this paper we highlight selected topics of current interest in the debate. As an indication of the level of public concern, we note the major recent reports on risk assessment from the National Academy of Sciences and the U.S Environmental Protection Agency's proposed substantial revisions to its Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Assessment. We identify and briefly frame several key scientific issues in cancer risk assessment, including the growing recognition of the importance of understanding the mode of action of carcinogenesis in experimental animals and in humans, the methodologies and challenges in quantitative extrapolation of cancer risks, and the question of how to assess and account for human variability in susceptibility to carcinogens. In addition, we discuss initiatives in progress that may fundamentally alter the carcinogenesis testing paradigm. PMID:9114281

  7. Earthquake Risk Assessment and Risk Transfer

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liechti, D.; Zbinden, A.; Rüttener, E.

    Research on risk assessment of natural catastrophes is very important for estimating its economical and social impact. The loss potentials of such disasters (e.g. earthquake and storms) for property owners, insurance and nationwide economies are driven by the hazard, the damageability (vulnerability) of buildings and infrastructures and depend on the ability to transfer these losses to different parties. In addition, the geographic distribution of the exposed values, the uncertainty of building vulnerability and the individual deductible are main factors determining the size of a loss. The deductible is the key element that steers the distribution of losses between insured and insurer. Therefore the risk analysis concentrates on deductible and vulnerability of insured buildings and maps their variations to allow efficient decisions. With consideration to stochastic event sets, the corresponding event losses can be modelled as expected loss grades of a Beta probability density function. Based on deductible and standard deviation of expected loss grades, the loss for the insured and for the insurer can be quantified. In addition, the varying deductible impact on different geographic regions can be described. This analysis has been carried out for earthquake insurance portfolios with various building types and different deductibles. Besides quantifying loss distributions between insured and insurer based on uncertainty assumptions and deductible consideration, mapping yields ideas to optimise the risk transfer process and can be used for developing risk mitigation strategies.

  8. Improving pandemic influenza risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Russell, Colin A; Kasson, Peter M; Donis, Ruben O; Riley, Steven; Dunbar, John; Rambaut, Andrew; Asher, Jason; Burke, Stephen; Davis, C Todd; Garten, Rebecca J; Gnanakaran, Sandrasegaram; Hay, Simon I; Herfst, Sander; Lewis, Nicola S; Lloyd-Smith, James O; Macken, Catherine A; Maurer-Stroh, Sebastian; Neuhaus, Elizabeth; Parrish, Colin R; Pepin, Kim M; Shepard, Samuel S; Smith, David L; Suarez, David L; Trock, Susan C; Widdowson, Marc-Alain; George, Dylan B; Lipsitch, Marc; Bloom, Jesse D

    2014-01-01

    Assessing the pandemic risk posed by specific non-human influenza A viruses is an important goal in public health research. As influenza virus genome sequencing becomes cheaper, faster, and more readily available, the ability to predict pandemic potential from sequence data could transform pandemic influenza risk assessment capabilities. However, the complexities of the relationships between virus genotype and phenotype make such predictions extremely difficult. The integration of experimental work, computational tool development, and analysis of evolutionary pathways, together with refinements to influenza surveillance, has the potential to transform our ability to assess the risks posed to humans by non-human influenza viruses and lead to improved pandemic preparedness and response. PMID:25321142

  9. Improving pandemic influenza risk assessment

    PubMed Central

    Russell, Colin A; Kasson, Peter M; Donis, Ruben O; Riley, Steven; Dunbar, John; Rambaut, Andrew; Asher, Jason; Burke, Stephen; Davis, C Todd; Garten, Rebecca J; Gnanakaran, Sandrasegaram; Hay, Simon I; Herfst, Sander; Lewis, Nicola S; Lloyd-Smith, James O; Macken, Catherine A; Maurer-Stroh, Sebastian; Neuhaus, Elizabeth; Parrish, Colin R; Pepin, Kim M; Shepard, Samuel S; Smith, David L; Suarez, David L; Trock, Susan C; Widdowson, Marc-Alain; George, Dylan B; Lipsitch, Marc; Bloom, Jesse D

    2014-01-01

    Assessing the pandemic risk posed by specific non-human influenza A viruses is an important goal in public health research. As influenza virus genome sequencing becomes cheaper, faster, and more readily available, the ability to predict pandemic potential from sequence data could transform pandemic influenza risk assessment capabilities. However, the complexities of the relationships between virus genotype and phenotype make such predictions extremely difficult. The integration of experimental work, computational tool development, and analysis of evolutionary pathways, together with refinements to influenza surveillance, has the potential to transform our ability to assess the risks posed to humans by non-human influenza viruses and lead to improved pandemic preparedness and response. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.03883.001 PMID:25321142

  10. Probabilistic risk assessment: Number 219

    SciTech Connect

    Bari, R.A.

    1985-11-13

    This report describes a methodology for analyzing the safety of nuclear power plants. A historical overview of plants in the US is provided, and past, present, and future nuclear safety and risk assessment are discussed. A primer on nuclear power plants is provided with a discussion of pressurized water reactors (PWR) and boiling water reactors (BWR) and their operation and containment. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), utilizing both event-tree and fault-tree analysis, is discussed as a tool in reactor safety, decision making, and communications. (FI)

  11. Toxicological risk assessment. Volume 2

    SciTech Connect

    Clayson, D.B.; Krewski, D.; Munro, I.

    1985-01-01

    This book contains the following chapters: Epidemiological Methods for Assessment of Human Cancer Risk. Assessment of Human Exposure to Environmental Contaminants with Special Reference to Cancer. Influence of Nutrition, Immunologic Status, and Other Factors on Development of Cancer. Significance of Benefits in Regulatory Decision Making. Measuring Health Benefits. Food Safety Regulations. Case Study-Asbestos. Vinyl Chloride - A Cancer Case Study. An Integrated Approach to the Study of Formaldehyde Carcinogenicity in Rats and Mice. Determination of Human Risk in Regulating Polychlorinated Biphenyls Saccharin - A Bitter-Sweet Case.

  12. Environmental Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bayramov, A. A.

    In this paper, various aspects of modern nanotechnologies and, as a result, risks of nanomaterials impact on an environment are considered. This very brief review of the First International Conference on Material and Information Sciences in High Technologies (2007, Baku, Azerbaijan) is given. The conference presented many reports that were devoted to nanotechnology in biology and business for the developing World, formation of charged nanoparticles for creation of functional nanostructures, nanoprocessing of carbon nanotubes, magnetic and optical properties of manganese-phosphorus nanowires, ultra-nanocrystalline diamond films, and nanophotonics communications in Azerbaijan. The mathematical methods of simulation of the group, individual and social risks are considered for the purpose of nanomaterials risk reduction and remediation. Lastly, we have conducted studies at a plant of polymeric materials (and nanomaterials), located near Baku. Assessments have been conducted on the individual risk of person affection and constructed the map of equal isolines and zones of individual risk for a plant of polymeric materials (and nanomaterials).

  13. Decade of karst risk assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yolkin, Vladimir

    2010-05-01

    Karst is one of the most hazardous processes on the Earth, at about 13% of the Russian area, including more than 300 towns and thousands of smaller settlements with 19% of the total population of Russia, are subject to karst deformations (Ragozin, 1994). During the time period 2000-2004, regional karst hazard and risk assessment was developed as an example of the Tatarstan Republic (Ragozin and Yolkin, 2003). The published paper was the first Russian research paper dedicated the technique and cartographic examples of probabilistic-deterministic risk assessment from karst processes. At present time, the technique of assessment of karst risk is improved, as well as investigations with reference to various areal or linear recipients are performed. In particular, for the pipeline systems the assessment of karst economic risk adapts, according to two scenarios: the pessimistic one (the most adverse in consequences) and the most probable (Yolkin and Anikeev, 2007, Yolkin, 2008,2009). By karst risk we mean the probabilistic index of hazard of karst and karst-suffosion sinkholes and surface settlements established for a certain object as it possible losses in various spheres for a given time period. Quantitative karst-hazard and risk assessment is carried out on the basis of the analysis of geological structure of territory, hydrogeological and engineering-geological conditions of territory, identification and prediction of karst hazards in time and space, assessment of vulnerability of objects to karst hazards, ranking and mapping of karst hazards as well as karst economic, social risks of losses. The obtained values of economic or social risk are the basis for choosing engineering protection measures, alternative design solutions and for estimating service conditions. It is necessary to mention that the procedure of vulnerability assessment is poorly developed with reference not only to karst sinkholes, but also to dangerous geological processes in general. For

  14. Dynamical systems probabilistic risk assessment.

    SciTech Connect

    Denman, Matthew R.; Ames, Arlo Leroy

    2014-03-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is the primary tool used to risk-inform nuclear power regulatory and licensing activities. Risk-informed regulations are intended to reduce inherent conservatism in regulatory metrics (e.g., allowable operating conditions and technical specifications) which are built into the regulatory framework by quantifying both the total risk profile as well as the change in the risk profile caused by an event or action (e.g., in-service inspection procedures or power uprates). Dynamical Systems (DS) analysis has been used to understand unintended time-dependent feedbacks in both industrial and organizational settings. In dynamical systems analysis, feedback loops can be characterized and studied as a function of time to describe the changes to the reliability of plant Structures, Systems and Components (SSCs). While DS has been used in many subject areas, some even within the PRA community, it has not been applied toward creating long-time horizon, dynamic PRAs (with time scales ranging between days and decades depending upon the analysis). Understanding slowly developing dynamic effects, such as wear-out, on SSC reliabilities may be instrumental in ensuring a safely and reliably operating nuclear fleet. Improving the estimation of a plant's continuously changing risk profile will allow for more meaningful risk insights, greater stakeholder confidence in risk insights, and increased operational flexibility.

  15. Collegiate Alcohol Risk Assessment Guide.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Anderson, David S.; Janosik, Steven M.

    An instrument to help administrators assess the liability resulting from alcohol-related activities on the college campus is presented. The hazards and associated liability of these events can be reduced by developing an aggressive risk management strategy designed to inform, educate, and coordinate the actions of individuals and groups associated…

  16. Integrated Disposal Facility Risk Assessment

    SciTech Connect

    MANN, F. M.

    2003-06-03

    An environmental risk assessment associated with the disposal of projected Immobilized Low-Activity Waste, solid wastes and failed or decommissioned melters in an Integrated Disposal Facility was performed. Based on the analyses all performance objectives associated with the groundwater, air, and intruder pathways were met.

  17. Picillo Farm ecological risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Rury, P.M.; Turton, D.J.

    1995-12-31

    Under the direction of US Environmental Protection Agency, Region 1, a baseline ecological risk assessment (ERA) was conducted for terrestrial, wetland, and aquatic ecosystems located on-site and off-site/downstream of a Superfund site in Coventry, Rhode Island. Surveys of biota and ecosystems were focused in the vicinity of 26 soil, sediment, and surface water sampling locations used for the RI/FS site contamination assessment, to cross-link data on biological receptors to site-specific habitat maps. Classes of contaminants of concern (COCs), selected independently for each medium based on exceedances of ecotoxicity criteria, for which risks to one or more indicator communities and species were calculated, included VOCs, SVOCs, metals, PCBs and pesticides. Simple hazard quotients were used to estimate risks for benthic and pelagic communities of the aquatic and wetland exposure zones, using AWQC and NOAA sediment guidelines. These aquatic criteria also were applied to a site-specific exposure models for all life stages of the Green Frog (Rana clamitans). To complement the benthic invertebrate risk estimates, site-derived sediments also were used for toxicity tests of Chironomus tentans and Hyalella azteca. Published, species-specific and/or extrapolated toxicity effects endpoints were used in site-specific, mathematical food chain exposure assessment models for the Amedcan Woodcock (Scolopax minor), Short-tailed Shrew (Blarina brevicauda) and Mink (Mustela vison), to estimate organismal risks for a variety of foraging scenarios within one or more exposure zone. Incremental site contributions to risks from metals were inferred using local background data, whereas all risks from organic compounds were assumed to be site-derived.

  18. OVERCOMING OBSTACLES TO POPULATIONS RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    Driven by management goals, statutory requirements and stakeholder interests, populations of wildlife and aquatic organisms often are the assessment endpoint entities (assessment populations) identified in site-specific ecological risk assessments. Yet, risks to populations are ...

  19. Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

    SciTech Connect

    Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

    1994-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms{open_quote} risk assessment{close_quote} and{open_quote} risk management{close_quote} are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of {open_quotes}... the most significant data and uncertainties...{close_quotes} in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are {open_quotes}...those that define and explain the main risk conclusions{close_quotes}. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation.

  20. Probabilistic risk assessment familiarization training

    SciTech Connect

    Phillabaum, J.L.

    1989-01-01

    Philadelphia Electric Company (PECo) created a Nuclear Group Risk and Reliability Assessment Program Plan in order to focus the utilization of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in support of Limerick Generating Station and Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station. The continuation of a PRA program was committed by PECo to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) prior to be the issuance of an operating license for Limerick Unit 1. It is believed that increased use of PRA techniques to support activities at Limerick and Peach Bottom will enhance PECo's overall nuclear excellence. Training for familiarization with PRA is designed for attendance once by all nuclear group personnel to understand PRA and its potential effect on their jobs. The training content describes the history of PRA and how it applies to PECo's nuclear activities. Key PRA concepts serve as the foundation for the familiarization training. These key concepts are covered in all classes to facilitate an appreciation of the remaining material, which is tailored to the audience. Some of the concepts covered are comparison of regulatory philosophy to PRA techniques, fundamentals of risk/success, risk equation/risk summation, and fault trees and event trees. Building on the concepts, PRA insights and applications are then described that are tailored to the audience.

  1. [Predictive microbiology and risk assessment].

    PubMed

    Hildebrandt, G; Kleer, J

    2004-05-01

    Predictive microbiology (predictive modelling PM), in spite of its limits and short-comings, may often contribute to a reduction of the problems arising when HACCP systems are established or microbiological risk assessment is done. Having identified the agents which constitute a risk and the contamination rate and density in the raw material, the influences of production steps and storage on these microorganisms have to be examined. Finally, there should be an exposure assessment, i.e. an estimate of the contamination density in the final product at the time of consumption. Should the exposure assessment together with data from dose response assessments reveal a potential for intake of inacceptable numbers of organisms, the risk identified has to be characterized. As a consequence, risk management should result in a modification of the composition of the product and/or of the production process so that the risk does not surpass an acceptable limit. For this approach it is indispensable to have product- and process-specific information on the multiplication of pathogens prior to heat treatment, on reduction of their density by thermal treatment and on growth or dying of organisms having survived heat treatment or penetrated into the product after heat treatment as post-process contaminant. Commonly, challenge tests are conducted to provide such information. But they are time consuming and, as their results are only valid for the specific product tested and the conditions prevailing during the experiment, the have to be repeated if there is any modification of intrinsic or extrinsic factors. At least partially, the PM may replace the challenge tests. The efficiency of the models is rated particularly high if they are used already at the stage of product development when the question has to be answered whether a planned recipe or process of production are already save or have to be modified to become save. PMID:15233338

  2. Ecosystem Services as Assessment Endpoints in Ecological Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    The focus of ecological risk assessment (ERA) is on assessment endpoints, explicit expressions of environmental values to be protected. Traditionally, the ecological entities identified in assessment endpoints have been components of ecosystems deemed by risk assessors to be impo...

  3. Reevaluating Interrater Reliability in Offender Risk Assessment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    van der Knaap, Leontien M.; Leenarts, Laura E. W.; Born, Marise Ph.; Oosterveld, Paul

    2012-01-01

    Offender risk and needs assessment, one of the pillars of the risk-need-responsivity model of offender rehabilitation, usually depends on raters assessing offender risk and needs. The few available studies of interrater reliability in offender risk assessment are, however, limited in the generalizability of their results. The present study…

  4. Assessing and Managing Risk with Suicidal Individuals

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Linehan, Marsh M.; Comtois, Katherine A.; Ward-Ciesielski, Erin F.

    2012-01-01

    The University of Washington Risk Assessment Protocol (UWRAP) and Risk Assessment and Management Protocol (UWRAMP) have been used in numerous clinical trials treating high-risk suicidal individuals over several years. These protocols structure assessors and treatment providers to provide a thorough suicide risk assessment, review standards of care…

  5. [Risk Assessment and Risk Management of Chemicals in China].

    PubMed

    Wang, Tie-yu; Zhou, Yun-qiao; Li, Qi-feng; Lü, Yong-long

    2016-02-15

    Risk assessment and risk management have been increasingly approved as an effective approach for appropriate disposal and scientific management of chemicals. This study systematically analyzed the risk assessment methods of chemicals from three aspects including health risk, ecological risk and regional risk. Based on the current situation of classification and management towards chemicals in China, a specific framework of risk management on chemicals was proposed by selecting target chemicals, predominant industries and related stakeholders as the objects. The results of the present study will provide scientific support for improving risk assessment and reasonable management of chemicals in China. PMID:27363124

  6. Risk Assessment Terminology: Risk Communication Part 2

    PubMed Central

    Bentley, Stefano; Giacometti, Federica; Piva, Silvia; Serraino, Andrea

    2016-01-01

    The paper describes the terminology of risk communication in the view of food safety: different aspects of risk perception (perceived risk, media triggers, the psychometric paradigm, fright factors and cultural determinants of risk perception) are described. The risk profile elements are illustrated in the manuscript: hazard-food commodity combination(s) of concern; description of the public health problem; food production, processing, distribution and consumption; needs and questions for the risk assessors; available information and major knowledge gaps and other risk profile elements. PMID:27800443

  7. Disability and work: risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Meusz, C

    Recent parliamentary debate has brought the rights of disabled people back into the spotlight of media attention. In the workplace, the occupational health nurse (OHN) is uniquely placed to make a positive contribution to the achievement of equal opportunities for people with disabilities. The author describes a risk assessment approach to the occupational health and safety of disabled persons and their employers. Such approaches can help to ensure that the work skills of all employees are used to maximum potential.

  8. Risk assessment of shellfish toxins.

    PubMed

    Munday, Rex; Reeve, John

    2013-11-01

    Complex secondary metabolites, some of which are highly toxic to mammals, are produced by many marine organisms. Some of these organisms are important food sources for marine animals and, when ingested, the toxins that they produce may be absorbed and stored in the tissues of the predators, which then become toxic to animals higher up the food chain. This is a particular problem with shellfish, and many cases of poisoning are reported in shellfish consumers each year. At present, there is no practicable means of preventing uptake of the toxins by shellfish or of removing them after harvesting. Assessment of the risk posed by such toxins is therefore required in order to determine levels that are unlikely to cause adverse effects in humans and to permit the establishment of regulatory limits in shellfish for human consumption. In the present review, the basic principles of risk assessment are described, and the progress made toward robust risk assessment of seafood toxins is discussed. While good progress has been made, it is clear that further toxicological studies are required before this goal is fully achieved. PMID:24226039

  9. Risk Assessment of Shellfish Toxins

    PubMed Central

    Munday, Rex; Reeve, John

    2013-01-01

    Complex secondary metabolites, some of which are highly toxic to mammals, are produced by many marine organisms. Some of these organisms are important food sources for marine animals and, when ingested, the toxins that they produce may be absorbed and stored in the tissues of the predators, which then become toxic to animals higher up the food chain. This is a particular problem with shellfish, and many cases of poisoning are reported in shellfish consumers each year. At present, there is no practicable means of preventing uptake of the toxins by shellfish or of removing them after harvesting. Assessment of the risk posed by such toxins is therefore required in order to determine levels that are unlikely to cause adverse effects in humans and to permit the establishment of regulatory limits in shellfish for human consumption. In the present review, the basic principles of risk assessment are described, and the progress made toward robust risk assessment of seafood toxins is discussed. While good progress has been made, it is clear that further toxicological studies are required before this goal is fully achieved. PMID:24226039

  10. Can Public Health Risk Assessment Using Risk Matrices Be Misleading?

    PubMed Central

    Vatanpour, Shabnam; Hrudey, Steve E.; Dinu, Irina

    2015-01-01

    The risk assessment matrix is a widely accepted, semi-quantitative tool for assessing risks, and setting priorities in risk management. Although the method can be useful to promote discussion to distinguish high risks from low risks, a published critique described a problem when the frequency and severity of risks are negatively correlated. A theoretical analysis showed that risk predictions could be misleading. We evaluated a practical public health example because it provided experiential risk data that allowed us to assess the practical implications of the published concern that risk matrices would make predictions that are worse than random. We explored this predicted problem by constructing a risk assessment matrix using a public health risk scenario—Tainted blood transfusion infection risk—That provides negative correlation between harm frequency and severity. We estimated the risk from the experiential data and compared these estimates with those provided by the risk assessment matrix. Although we validated the theoretical concern, for these authentic experiential data, the practical scope of the problem was limited. The risk matrix has been widely used in risk assessment. This method should not be abandoned wholesale, but users must address the source of the problem, apply the risk matrix with a full understanding of this problem and use matrix predictions to inform, but not drive decision-making. PMID:26287224

  11. ECO 201: Overview of Ecological Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    The objectives of this course is to provide participants with knowledge about the fundamentals of ecological risk assessment. A brief history of how ecological risk assessment has evolved over time and how it is both similar to and different from human health risk assessment wil...

  12. Risks, risk assessment and risk competence in toxicology

    PubMed Central

    Stahlmann, Ralf; Horvath, Aniko

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the toxic effects of xenobiotics requires sound knowledge of physiology and biochemistry. The often described lack of understanding pharmacology/toxicology is therefore primarily caused by the general absence of the necessary fundamental knowledge. Since toxic effects depend on exposure (or dosage) assessing the risks arising from toxic substances also requires quantitative reasoning. Typically public discussions nearly always neglect quantitative aspects and laypersons tend to disregard dose-effect-relationships. One of the main reasons for such disregard is the fact that exposures often occur at extremely low concentrations that can only be perceived intellectually but not by the human senses. However, thresholds in the low exposure range are often scientifically disputed. At the same time, ignorance towards known dangers is wide-spread. Thus, enhancing the risk competence of laypersons will have to be initially restricted to increasing the awareness of existing problems. PMID:26195922

  13. 2014 Bone and Muscle Risks Standing Review Panel

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Steinberg, Susan; Glowacki, Julie; Gregor, Robert; Cullen, Diane; Drake, Almond; Enoka, Roger; Hanley, Edward Jr.; Kraemer, William; Raven, Peter; Sumner, Rick, D.

    2014-01-01

    The 2014 Bone and Muscle Risks Standing Review Panel (from here on referred to as the SRP) met for a site visit in Houston, TX on December 17 - 18, 2014. The SRP reviewed the updated research plans for the Risk of Impaired Performance Due to Reduced Muscle Mass, Strength and Endurance (Muscle Risk) and the Risk of Reduced Physical Performance Capabilities Due to Reduced Aerobic Capacity (Aerobic Risk). The SRP also received a status update on the Risk of Bone Fracture (Bone Risk), the Risk of Early Onset Osteoporosis Due To Spaceflight (Osteo Risk), the Risk of Intervertebral Disc Damage (IVD Risk), and the Risk of Renal Stone Formation (Renal Risk).

  14. Risk Assessment Terminology: Risk Communication Part 1

    PubMed Central

    Bentley, Stefano; Giacometti, Federica; Piva, Silvia; Serraino, Andrea

    2016-01-01

    The paper describes the terminology of risk communication in the view of food safety: the theory of stakeholders, the citizens’ involvement and the community interest and consultation are reported. Different aspects of risk communication (public communication, scientific uncertainty, trust, care, consensus and crisis communication) are discussed. PMID:27800435

  15. Metabolism, variability and risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Dorne, J L C M

    2010-02-01

    improve the risk assessment of chemical mixtures were explored (1) harmonization of the use of uncertainty factors for human and ecological risk assessment using mechanistic descriptors (2) use of toxicokinetics interaction data to derive UFs for chemical mixtures. The use of toxicokinetics data in risk assessment are discussed together with future approaches including sound statistical approaches to optimise predictability of models and recombinant technology/toxicokinetics assays to identify metabolic routes for chemicals and screen mixtures of environmental health importance. PMID:19932147

  16. Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components.

    PubMed

    Murray, Cathryn Clarke; Mach, Megan E; Martone, Rebecca G; Singh, Gerald G; O, Miriam; Chan, Kai M A

    2016-01-01

    The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such "indirect risks" can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i) the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii) risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their "at-risk status" designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but-by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here-they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within. PMID:27632287

  17. Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components

    PubMed Central

    Mach, Megan E.; Martone, Rebecca G.; Singh, Gerald G.; O, Miriam; Chan, Kai M. A.

    2016-01-01

    The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such “indirect risks” can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i) the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii) risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their “at-risk status” designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but—by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here—they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within. PMID:27632287

  18. RISK AND RISK ASSESSMENT IN WATER-BASED RECREATION

    EPA Science Inventory

    The great number of individuals using recreational water resources presents a challenge with regard to protecting the health of these recreationists. Risk assessment provides a framework for characterizing the risk associated with exposure to microbial hazards and for managing r...

  19. Assessing research risks systematically: the net risks test.

    PubMed

    Wendler, D; Miller, F G

    2007-08-01

    Dual-track assessment directs research ethics committees (RECs) to assess the risks of research interventions based on the unclear distinction between therapeutic and non-therapeutic interventions. The net risks test, in contrast, relies on the clinically familiar method of assessing the risks and benefits of interventions in comparison to the available alternatives and also focuses attention of the RECs on the central challenge of protecting research participants. PMID:17664310

  20. Risk assessment of silver nanoparticles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shipelin, V. A.; Gmoshinski, I. V.; Khotimchenko, S. A.

    2015-11-01

    Nanoparticles of metallic silver (Ag) are among the most widely used products of nanotechnology. Nanosized colloidal silver (NCS) is presented in many kinds of production as solutions of particles with diameter less than 100 nm. NCS is used in a variety of fields, including food supplements, medicines, cosmetics, packaging materials, disinfectants, water filters, and many others. Problems of toxicity and related safety of NCS for humans and environmental systems are recently overestimated basing on data of numerous toxicological studies in vitro and in vivo. The article discusses the results of current studies in recent years and the data of author's own experiments on studying the safety of NCS, that allows to move on to risk assessment of this nanomaterial presented in consumer products and environmental samples.

  1. Assessing risks to ecosystem quality

    SciTech Connect

    Barnthouse, L.W.

    1995-12-31

    Ecosystems are not organisms. Because ecosystems do not reproduce, grow old or sick, and die, the term ecosystem health is somewhat misleading and perhaps should not be used. A more useful concept is ``ecosystem quality,`` which denotes a set of desirable ecosystem characteristics defined in terms of species composition, productivity, size/condition of specific populations, or other measurable properties. The desired quality of an ecosystem may be pristine, as in a nature preserve, or highly altered by man, as in a managed forest or navigational waterway. ``Sustainable development`` implies that human activities that influence ecosystem quality should be managed so that high-quality ecosystems are maintained for future generations. In sustainability-based environmental management, the focus is on maintaining or improving ecosystem quality, not on restricting discharges or requiring particular waste treatment technologies. This approach requires management of chemical impacts to be integrated with management of other sources of stress such as erosion, eutrophication, and direct human exploitation. Environmental scientists must (1) work with decision makers and the public to define ecosystem quality goals, (2) develop corresponding measures of ecosystem quality, (3) diagnose causes for departures from desired states, and (4) recommend appropriate restoration actions, if necessary. Environmental toxicology and chemical risk assessment are necessary for implementing the above framework, but they are clearly not sufficient. This paper reviews the state-of-the science relevant to sustaining the quality of aquatic ecosystems. Using the specific example of a reservoir in eastern Tennessee, the paper attempts to define roles for ecotoxicology and risk assessment in each step of the management process.

  2. Risk assessment of metal vapor arcing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hill, Monika C. (Inventor); Leidecker, Henning W. (Inventor)

    2009-01-01

    A method for assessing metal vapor arcing risk for a component is provided. The method comprises acquiring a current variable value associated with an operation of the component; comparing the current variable value with a threshold value for the variable; evaluating compared variable data to determine the metal vapor arcing risk in the component; and generating a risk assessment status for the component.

  3. Environmental risk assessment of paroxetine.

    PubMed

    Cunningham, Virginia L; Constable, David J C; Hannah, Robert E

    2004-06-15

    watershed-based environmental risk assessment model, PhATE, to predict environmental concentrations (PECs). Comparison of the calculated PECs with the PNEC allows an assessment of potential environmental risk. Within the 1-99% of stream segments in the PhATE model, PEC values ranged from 0.003 to 100 ng/L. The risk assessment PEC/PNEC ratios ranged from approximately 3 x 10(-8) to approximately 3 x 10(-3), indicating a wide margin of safety, since a PEC/PNEC ratio <1 is generally considered to represent a low risk to the environment. In addition, Microtox studies carried out on PM biodegradation byproducts indicated no detectable residual toxicity. Any compounds in the environment as a result of the biodegradation of PM should be innocuous polar byproducts that should not exert any toxic effects. PMID:15260335

  4. Risk modelling for vaccination: a risk assessment perspective.

    PubMed

    Wooldridge, M

    2007-01-01

    Any risk assessment involves a number of steps. First, the risk manager, in close liaison with the risk assessor, should identify the question of interest. Then, the hazards associated with each risk question should be identified. Only then can the risks themselves be assessed. Several questions may reasonably be asked about the risk associated with avian influenza vaccines and their use. Some apply to any vaccine, while others are specific to avian influenza. Risks may occur during manufacture and during use. Some concern the vaccines themselves, while others address the effect of failure on disease control. The hazards associated with each risk question are then identified. These may be technical errors in design, development or production, such as contamination or failure to inactivate appropriately. They may relate to the biological properties of the pathogens themselves displayed during manufacture or use, for example, reversion to virulence, shedding or not being the right strain for the subsequent challenge. Following a consideration of risks and hazards, the information needed and an outline of the steps necessary to assess the risk is summarized, for an illustrative risk question using, as an example, the risks associated with the use of vaccines in the field. A brief consideration of the differences between qualitative and quantitative risk assessments is also included, and the potential effects of uncertainty and variability on the results are discussed.

  5. INCORPORATING NONCHEMICAL STRESSORS INTO CUMMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The risk assessment paradigm has begun to shift from assessing single chemicals using "reasonable worst case" assumptions for individuals to considering multiple chemicals and community-based models. Inherent in community-based risk assessment is examination of all stressors a...

  6. [Urban ecological risk assessment: a review].

    PubMed

    Wang, Mei-E; Chen, Wei-Ping; Peng, Chi

    2014-03-01

    With the development of urbanization and the degradation of urban living environment, urban ecological risks caused by urbanization have attracted more and more attentions. Based on urban ecology principles and ecological risk assessment frameworks, contents of urban ecological risk assessment were reviewed in terms of driven forces, risk resources, risk receptors, endpoints and integrated approaches for risk assessment. It was suggested that types and degrees of urban economical and social activities were the driven forces for urban ecological risks. Ecological functional components at different levels in urban ecosystems as well as the urban system as a whole were the risk receptors. Assessment endpoints involved in changes of urban ecological structures, processes, functional components and the integrity of characteristic and function. Social-ecological models should be the major approaches for urban ecological risk assessment. Trends for urban ecological risk assessment study should focus on setting a definite protection target and criteria corresponding to assessment endpoints, establishing a multiple-parameter assessment system and integrative assessment approaches.

  7. Colon Cancer Risk Assessment - Gauss Program

    Cancer.gov

    An executable file (in GAUSS) that projects absolute colon cancer risk (with confidence intervals) according to NCI’s Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (CCRAT) algorithm. GAUSS is not needed to run the program.

  8. A Quantitative Software Risk Assessment Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lee, Alice

    2002-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews a risk assessment model as applied to software development. the presentation uses graphs to demonstrate basic concepts of software reliability. It also discusses the application to the risk model to the software development life cycle.

  9. [Forest health ecological risk assessment in China].

    PubMed

    Xiao, Fengjin; Ouyang, Hua; Cheng, Shulan; Zhang, Qiang

    2004-02-01

    Forest health ecological risk assessment is an important factor in forest resources management. In this paper, we selected forest fire, forest disease-pest disasters and acid rain as main risk sources, described the risk resources by probability, intensity and distributing, and mapped each risk source. The endpoints were the damages that the risk acceptor might and these damages might cause ecosystems' organization and function changing under the uncertainty risk sources. Endpoints of forest might compose of productivity descent, reducing biodiversity, forest degrading, forest ecological function declining, furthermore, forest disappearing. We described exposure in terms of intensity, space, and time. In the exposure and hazard analysis, we used fragile index to show frangibility or resistibility (resistibility is reverse to frangibility), and analyzed the damages by different risk sources. Risk assessment and management was the integrated phase of the research. Because of the spatial heterogeneity of risk sources, all risk index were overlaid in the China map by GIS, which divided the region into 30 ecological risk sub-zones (provinces), according to risk index of each risk sub-zone, and the forest in China was divided into six levels of risk zones. In every level of risk zones, we also put forward the countermeasures for forest health ecological risk management. The result of assessment could provide scientific basis for forest management.

  10. Metal Vapor Arcing Risk Assessment Tool

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hill, Monika C.; Leidecker, Henning W.

    2010-01-01

    The Tin Whisker Metal Vapor Arcing Risk Assessment Tool has been designed to evaluate the risk of metal vapor arcing and to help facilitate a decision toward a researched risk disposition. Users can evaluate a system without having to open up the hardware. This process allows for investigating components at risk rather than spending time and money analyzing every component. The tool points to a risk level and provides direction for appropriate action and documentation.

  11. Risk Assessment Update: Russian Segment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Christiansen, Eric; Lear, Dana; Hyde, James; Bjorkman, Michael; Hoffman, Kevin

    2012-01-01

    BUMPER-II version 1.95j source code was provided to RSC-E- and Khrunichev at January 2012 MMOD TIM in Moscow. MEMCxP and ORDEM 3.0 environments implemented as external data files. NASA provided a sample ORDEM 3.0 g."key" & "daf" environment file set for demonstration and benchmarking BUMPER -II v1.95j installation at the Jan-12 TIM. ORDEM 3.0 has been completed and is currently in beta testing. NASA will provide a preliminary set of ORDEM 3.0 ".key" & ".daf" environment files for the years 2012 through 2028. Bumper output files produced using the new ORDEM 3.0 data files are intended for internal use only, not for requirements verification. Output files will contain these words ORDEM FILE DESCRIPTION = PRELIMINARY VERSION: not for production. The projectile density term in many BUMPER-II ballistic limit equations will need to be updated. Cube demo scripts and output files delivered at the Jan-12 TIM have been updated for the new ORDEM 3.0 data files. Risk assessment results based on ORDEM 3.0 and MEM will be presented for the Russian Segment (RS) of ISS.

  12. Risk communication in environmental assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Rahm-Crites, L.

    1996-08-26

    Since the enactment of NEPA and other environmental legislation, the concept of `risk communication` has expanded from simply providing citizens with scientific information about risk to exploring ways of making risk information genuinely meaningful to the public and facilitating public involvement in the very processes whereby risk is analyzed and managed. Contemporary risk communication efforts attempt to find more effective ways of conveying increasingly complex risk information and to develop more democratic and proactive approaches to community involvement, in particular to ensuring the participation of diverse populations in risk decisions. Although considerable progress has been made in a relatively short time, risk communication researchers and practitioners currently face a number of challenges in a time of high expectations, low trust, and low budgets.

  13. Integrated Environmental Modeling: Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    The presentation discusses the need for microbial assessments and presents a road map associated with quantitative microbial risk assessments, through an integrated environmental modeling approach. A brief introduction and the strengths of the current knowledge are illustrated. W...

  14. 24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-04-01

    ... assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance with... LEAD-BASED PAINT POISONING PREVENTION IN CERTAIN RESIDENTIAL STRUCTURES Project-Based...

  15. 24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-04-01

    ... assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance with... LEAD-BASED PAINT POISONING PREVENTION IN CERTAIN RESIDENTIAL STRUCTURES Project-Based...

  16. 24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-04-01

    ... assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance with... LEAD-BASED PAINT POISONING PREVENTION IN CERTAIN RESIDENTIAL STRUCTURES Project-Based...

  17. 24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance with... LEAD-BASED PAINT POISONING PREVENTION IN CERTAIN RESIDENTIAL STRUCTURES Project-Based...

  18. 24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-04-01

    ... assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance with... LEAD-BASED PAINT POISONING PREVENTION IN CERTAIN RESIDENTIAL STRUCTURES Project-Based...

  19. Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Brekke, L.D.; Maurer, E.P.; Anderson, J.D.; Dettinger, M.D.; Townsley, E.S.; Harrison, A.; Pruitt, T.

    2009-01-01

    Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

  20. Ecological risk assessment framework -- the NAS perspective

    SciTech Connect

    Barnthouse, L.W.

    1993-06-01

    A Workshop on Ecological Risk Assessment was held on February 26--March 1, 1991, at Airlie House, Warrenton, Virginia. In addition to presentation and discussion of the case study papers, the workshop included breakout sessions to discuss conceptual and technical aspects of ecological risk assessment. A general consensus emerged that an ecological version of the 1983 framework is desirable and feasible. The committee concluded that the 1983 human health framework could be expanded to accomodate both human health and ecological risk assessment. For general applicability to ecological assessments, the 1983 scheme requires augmentation to address some of the interfaces between science and management, primarily because of the need to focus on appropriate questions relevant to applicable environmental law and policy under different circumstances. Specifically, the scheme needs modification to address (1) the influence of legal and regulatory considerations on the initial stages of ecological risk assessment and (2) the importance of characterizing ecological risks in terms that are intelligible to risk managers. The committee`s opinion is that these augmentations are as important for human health risk assessment as they are for ecological risk assessment. This paper briefly describes the framework recommended by the Committee and compares it to EPA`s recently-published Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment.

  1. Biologically based, quantitative risk assessment of neurotoxicants.

    PubMed

    Slikker, W; Crump, K S; Andersen, M E; Bellinger, D

    1996-01-01

    The need for biologically based, quantitative risk assessment procedures for noncancer endpoints such as neurotoxicity has been discussed in reports by the United States Congress (Office of Technology Assessment, OTA), National Research Council (NRC), and a federal coordinating council. According to OTA, current attention and resources allocated to health risk assessment research are inadequate and not commensurate with its impact on public health and the economy. Methods to include continuous rather than dichotomous data for neurotoxicity endpoints, biomarkers of exposure and effects, and pharmacokinetic and mechanistic data have been proposed for neurotoxicity risk assessment but require further review and validation before acceptance. The purpose of this symposium was to examine procedures to enhance the risk assessment process for neurotoxicants and to discuss techniques to make the process more quantitative. Accordingly, a review of the currently used safety factor risk assessment approach for neurotoxicants is provided along with specific examples of how this process may be enhanced with the use of the benchmark dose approach. The importance of including physiologically based pharmacokinetic data in the risk assessment process and specific examples of this approach is presented for neurotoxicants. The role of biomarkers of exposure and effect and mechanistic information in the risk assessment process are also addressed. Finally, quantitative approaches with the use of continuous neurotoxicity data are demonstrated and the outcomes compared to those generated by currently used risk assessment procedures. PMID:8838636

  2. Risk Assessment: An Examination of Assumptions.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Prince-Embury, Sandra

    A meta-analysis of theoretical debates concerned with the assessment of risk associated with the use of nuclear power as an energy source is presented in this paper. Based on a central premise that risk assessment has a direct impact on national policy decisions and is associated with different perspectives reflective of different social sectors,…

  3. LINES OF EVIDENCE IN WILDLIFE RISK ASSESSMENTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Ecological risk assessment has evolved rapidly from a qualitative set of observations to a quantitative science during the past decade. Methods for assessing risk to wildlife, however, remain largely theoretical as the empirical data required for accurate estimates of exposure o...

  4. Assessing nanoparticle risk poses prodigious challenges

    EPA Science Inventory

    Risk assessment is used both formally and informally to estimate the likelihood of an adverse event occurring, for example, as a consequence of exposure to a hazardous chemical, drug or other agent. Formal risk assessments in government regulatory agencies have a long history of ...

  5. Risk Assessment and Stewardship of Bt Crops

    EPA Science Inventory

    Registration of Bt crops as part of the FIFRA requirements involves the assessment of environmental risk associated with the new crop variety. The assessment analysis stipulates that the seed producer provide clear and unambiguous information relating to certain risk categories a...

  6. Current Challenges in Neurotoxicity Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    Neurotoxicity risk assessment must continue to evolve in parallel with advances in basic research. Along with this evolution is an expansion in the scope of neurotoxicity assessments of environmental health risks. Examples of this expansion include an increasing emphasis on compl...

  7. Risk Assess: What's Safe? What's Not? Why?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Duffy, Roslyn

    2010-01-01

    "Risk assess!" The words sound like a verbal stop sign. "Stop! Think! Consider!" In this article, the author presents an example of risk assessing that came from a nature education conference in Crieff, Scotland, that she attended as part of an international group of educators seeking ways to increase children's experiences with nature. The…

  8. Fuzzy sets applications for cancer risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Molchanov, P A; Dudatiev, A V; Podobna, Y Y; Molchanova, O P

    2002-09-01

    The method of cancer risk assessment on the basis of the Fuzzy Set Theory is presented. The method is based on a multifactor risk assessment of cancer diseases. The individual risk of cancer disease is evaluated as the probability of disease multiplied by the value of an individual dose. An acupuncture method of cancer risk assessments was developed. The method is based on the analysis of changes of an electromagnetic field (biofield) of a person. The method allows to determine both cancer probability and probable location of the process.

  9. Russian risk assessment methods and approaches

    SciTech Connect

    Dvorack, M.A.; Carlson, D.D.; Smith, R.E.

    1996-07-01

    One of the benefits resulting from the collapse of the Soviet Union is the increased dialogue currently taking place between American and Russian nuclear weapons scientists in various technical arenas. One of these arenas currently being investigated involves collaborative studies which illustrate how risk assessment is perceived and utilized in the Former Soviet Union (FSU). The collaborative studies indicate that, while similarities exist with respect to some methodologies, the assumptions and approaches in performing risk assessments were, and still are, somewhat different in the FSU as opposed to that in the US. The purpose of this paper is to highlight the present knowledge of risk assessment methodologies and philosophies within the two largest nuclear weapons laboratories of the Former Soviet Union, Arzamas-16 and Chelyabinsk-70. Furthermore, This paper will address the relative progress of new risk assessment methodologies, such as Fuzzy Logic, within the framework of current risk assessment methods at these two institutes.

  10. Environmental radiation: risk benchmarks or benchmarking risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Bates, Matthew E; Valverde, L James; Vogel, John T; Linkov, Igor

    2011-07-01

    In the wake of the compound March 2011 nuclear disaster at the Fukushima I nuclear power plant in Japan, international public dialogue has repeatedly turned to questions of the accuracy of current risk assessment processes to assess nuclear risks and the adequacy of existing regulatory risk thresholds to protect us from nuclear harm. We confront these issues with an emphasis on learning from the incident in Japan for future US policy discussions. Without delving into a broader philosophical discussion of the general social acceptance of the risk, the relative adequacy of existing US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) risk thresholds is assessed in comparison with the risk thresholds of federal agencies not currently under heightened public scrutiny. Existing NRC thresholds are found to be among the most conservative in the comparison, suggesting that the agency's current regulatory framework is consistent with larger societal ideals. In turning to risk assessment methodologies, the disaster in Japan does indicate room for growth. Emerging lessons seem to indicate an opportunity to enhance resilience through systemic levels of risk aggregation. Specifically, we believe bringing systemic reasoning to the risk management process requires a framework that (i) is able to represent risk-based knowledge and information about a panoply of threats; (ii) provides a systemic understanding (and representation) of the natural and built environments of interest and their dependencies; and (iii) allows for the rational and coherent valuation of a range of outcome variables of interest, both tangible and intangible. Rather than revisiting the thresholds themselves, we see the goal of future nuclear risk management in adopting and implementing risk assessment techniques that systemically evaluate large-scale socio-technical systems with a view toward enhancing resilience and minimizing the potential for surprise. PMID:21608107

  11. AN ASSESSMENT OF INTEGRATED RISK ASSESSMENT (Journal Article)

    EPA Science Inventory

    In order to promote international understanding and acceptance of the integrated risk assessment process, the WHO/IPCS, in collaboration with the U.S. EPA and the OECD, initiated a number of activities related to integrated risk assessment. In this project, WHO/IPCS defines inte...

  12. Cheese Microbial Risk Assessments — A Review

    PubMed Central

    Choi, Kyoung-Hee; Lee, Heeyoung; Lee, Soomin; Kim, Sejeong; Yoon, Yohan

    2016-01-01

    Cheese is generally considered a safe and nutritious food, but foodborne illnesses linked to cheese consumption have occurred in many countries. Several microbial risk assessments related to Listeria monocytogenes, Staphylococcus aureus, and Escherichia coli infections, causing cheese-related foodborne illnesses, have been conducted. Although the assessments of microbial risk in soft and low moisture cheeses such as semi-hard and hard cheeses have been accomplished, it has been more focused on the correlations between pathogenic bacteria and soft cheese, because cheese-associated foodborne illnesses have been attributed to the consumption of soft cheeses. As a part of this microbial risk assessment, predictive models have been developed to describe the relationship between several factors (pH, Aw, starter culture, and time) and the fates of foodborne pathogens in cheese. Predictions from these studies have been used for microbial risk assessment as a part of exposure assessment. These microbial risk assessments have identified that risk increased in cheese with high moisture content, especially for raw milk cheese, but the risk can be reduced by preharvest and postharvest preventions. For accurate quantitative microbial risk assessment, more data including interventions such as curd cooking conditions (temperature and time) and ripening period should be available for predictive models developed with cheese, cheese consumption amounts and cheese intake frequency data as well as more dose-response models. PMID:26950859

  13. Cheese Microbial Risk Assessments - A Review.

    PubMed

    Choi, Kyoung-Hee; Lee, Heeyoung; Lee, Soomin; Kim, Sejeong; Yoon, Yohan

    2016-03-01

    Cheese is generally considered a safe and nutritious food, but foodborne illnesses linked to cheese consumption have occurred in many countries. Several microbial risk assessments related to Listeria monocytogenes, Staphylococcus aureus, and Escherichia coli infections, causing cheese-related foodborne illnesses, have been conducted. Although the assessments of microbial risk in soft and low moisture cheeses such as semi-hard and hard cheeses have been accomplished, it has been more focused on the correlations between pathogenic bacteria and soft cheese, because cheese-associated foodborne illnesses have been attributed to the consumption of soft cheeses. As a part of this microbial risk assessment, predictive models have been developed to describe the relationship between several factors (pH, Aw, starter culture, and time) and the fates of foodborne pathogens in cheese. Predictions from these studies have been used for microbial risk assessment as a part of exposure assessment. These microbial risk assessments have identified that risk increased in cheese with high moisture content, especially for raw milk cheese, but the risk can be reduced by preharvest and postharvest preventions. For accurate quantitative microbial risk assessment, more data including interventions such as curd cooking conditions (temperature and time) and ripening period should be available for predictive models developed with cheese, cheese consumption amounts and cheese intake frequency data as well as more dose-response models.

  14. Risk assessment of carcinogens in food

    SciTech Connect

    Barlow, Susan

    2010-03-01

    Approaches for the risk assessment of carcinogens in food have evolved as scientific knowledge has advanced. Early methods allowed little more than hazard identification and an indication of carcinogenic potency. Evaluation of the modes of action of carcinogens and their broad division into genotoxic and epigenetic (non-genotoxic, non-DNA reactive) carcinogens have played an increasing role in determining the approach followed and provide possibilities for more detailed risk characterisation, including provision of quantitative estimates of risk. Reliance on experimental animal data for the majority of risk assessments and the fact that human exposures to dietary carcinogens are often orders of magnitude below doses used in experimental studies has provided a fertile ground for discussion and diverging views on the most appropriate way to offer risk assessment advice. Approaches used by national and international bodies differ, with some offering numerical estimates of potential risks to human health, while others express considerable reservations about the validity of quantitative approaches requiring extrapolation of dose-response data below the observed range and instead offer qualitative advice. Recognising that qualitative advice alone does not provide risk managers with information on which to prioritise the need for risk management actions, a 'margin of exposure' approach for substances that are both genotoxic and carcinogenic has been developed, which is now being used by the World Health Organization and the European Food Safety Authority. This review describes the evolution of risk assessment advice on carcinogens and discusses examples of ways in which carcinogens in food have been assessed in Europe.

  15. Risk Assessment for Tooth Wear.

    PubMed

    Kontaxopoulou, Isavella; Alam, Sonia

    2015-08-01

    Tooth wear has an increasing prevalence in the UK population. The aetiology is commonly multifactorial, and the aetiopathology is through a combination of erosion, attrition, abrasion and abfraction. Erosion is associated with intrinsic or extrinsic acids, and therefore subjects with reflux disease and eating disorders are at increased risk. Fruit juice, fruits and carbonated drink consumption, frequency of consumption and specific habits are also risk factors. Attrition is more prevalent in bruxists. Other habits need to be considered when defining the risk of tooth wear. Abrasion is usually associated with toothbrushing and toothpastes, especially in an already acidic environment. Patients with extensive lesions that affect dentin may be at higher risk, as well as those presenting with unstained lesions. Monitoring of the progress of tooth wear is recommended to identify those with active tooth wear. Indices for tooth wear are a helpful aid. PMID:26556515

  16. Risk Assessment for Tooth Wear.

    PubMed

    Kontaxopoulou, Isavella; Alam, Sonia

    2015-08-01

    Tooth wear has an increasing prevalence in the UK population. The aetiology is commonly multifactorial, and the aetiopathology is through a combination of erosion, attrition, abrasion and abfraction. Erosion is associated with intrinsic or extrinsic acids, and therefore subjects with reflux disease and eating disorders are at increased risk. Fruit juice, fruits and carbonated drink consumption, frequency of consumption and specific habits are also risk factors. Attrition is more prevalent in bruxists. Other habits need to be considered when defining the risk of tooth wear. Abrasion is usually associated with toothbrushing and toothpastes, especially in an already acidic environment. Patients with extensive lesions that affect dentin may be at higher risk, as well as those presenting with unstained lesions. Monitoring of the progress of tooth wear is recommended to identify those with active tooth wear. Indices for tooth wear are a helpful aid.

  17. PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessments) Participation versus Validation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    DeMott, Diana; Banke, Richard

    2013-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessments (PRAs) are performed for projects or programs where the consequences of failure are highly undesirable. PRAs primarily address the level of risk those projects or programs posed during operations. PRAs are often developed after the design has been completed. Design and operational details used to develop models include approved and accepted design information regarding equipment, components, systems and failure data. This methodology basically validates the risk parameters of the project or system design. For high risk or high dollar projects, using PRA methodologies during the design process provides new opportunities to influence the design early in the project life cycle to identify, eliminate or mitigate potential risks. Identifying risk drivers before the design has been set allows the design engineers to understand the inherent risk of their current design and consider potential risk mitigation changes. This can become an iterative process where the PRA model can be used to determine if the mitigation technique is effective in reducing risk. This can result in more efficient and cost effective design changes. PRA methodology can be used to assess the risk of design alternatives and can demonstrate how major design changes or program modifications impact the overall program or project risk. PRA has been used for the last two decades to validate risk predictions and acceptability. Providing risk information which can positively influence final system and equipment design the PRA tool can also participate in design development, providing a safe and cost effective product.

  18. NASA Human System Risk Assessment Process

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Francisco, D.; Romero, E.

    2016-01-01

    NASA utilizes an evidence based system to perform risk assessments for the human system for spaceflight missions. The center of this process is the multi-disciplinary Human System Risk Board (HSRB). The HSRB is chartered from the Chief Health and Medical Officer (OCHMO) at NASA Headquarters. The HSRB reviews all human system risks via an established comprehensive risk and configuration management plan based on a project management approach. The HSRB facilitates the integration of human research (terrestrial and spaceflight), medical operations, occupational surveillance, systems engineering and many other disciplines in a comprehensive review of human system risks. The HSRB considers all factors that influence human risk. These factors include pre-mission considerations such as screening criteria, training, age, sex, and physiological condition. In mission factors such as available countermeasures, mission duration and location and post mission factors such as time to return to baseline (reconditioning), post mission health screening, and available treatments. All of the factors influence the total risk assessment for each human risk. The HSRB performed a comprehensive review of all potential inflight medical conditions and events and over the course of several reviews consolidated the number of human system risks to 30, where the greatest emphasis is placed for investing program dollars for risk mitigation. The HSRB considers all available evidence from human research and, medical operations and occupational surveillance in assessing the risks for appropriate mitigation and future work. All applicable DRMs (low earth orbit for 6 and 12 months, deep space for 30 days and 1 year, a lunar mission for 1 year, and a planetary mission for 3 years) are considered as human system risks are modified by the hazards associated with space flight such as microgravity, exposure to radiation, distance from the earth, isolation and a closed environment. Each risk has a summary

  19. Enhancing the Ecological Risk Assessment Process

    SciTech Connect

    Dale, Virginia H

    2008-01-01

    The Ecological Processes and Effects Committee of the US Environmental Protection Agency Science Advisory Board conducted a self-initiated study and convened a public workshop to characterize the state of the ecological risk assessment (ERA), with a view toward advancing the science and application of the process. That survey and analysis of ERA in decision making shows that such assessments have been most effective when clear management goals were included in the problem formulation; translated into information needs; and developed in collaboration with decision makers, assessors, scientists, and stakeholders. This process is best facilitated when risk managers, risk assessors, and stakeholders are engaged in an ongoing dialogue about problem formulation. Identification and acknowledgment of uncertainties that have the potential to profoundly affect the results and outcome of risk assessments also improves assessment effectiveness. Thus we suggest (1) thorough peer review of ERAs be conducted at the problem formulation stage and (2) the predictive power of risk-based decision making be expanded to reduce uncertainties through analytical and methodological approaches like life cycle analysis. Risk assessment and monitoring programs need better integration to reduce uncertainty and to evaluate risk management decision outcomes. Postdecision audit programs should be initiated to evaluate the environmental outcomes of risk-based decisions. In addition, a process should be developed to demonstrate how monitoring data can be used to reduce uncertainties. Ecological risk assessments should include the effects of chemical and nonchemical stressors at multiple levels of biological organization and spatial scale, and the extent and resolution of the pertinent scales and levels of organization should be explicitly considered during problem formulation. An approach to interpreting lines of evidence and weight of evidence is critically needed for complex assessments, and it

  20. Nuclear insurance risk assessment using risk-based methodology

    SciTech Connect

    Wendland, W.G. )

    1992-01-01

    This paper presents American Nuclear Insurers' (ANI's) and Mutual Atomic Energy Liability Underwriters' (MAELU's) process and experience for conducting nuclear insurance risk assessments using a risk-based methodology. The process is primarily qualitative and uses traditional insurance risk assessment methods and an approach developed under the auspices of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) in which ANI/MAELU is an active sponsor. This process assists ANI's technical resources in identifying where to look for insurance risk in an industry in which insurance exposure tends to be dynamic and nonactuarial. The process is an evolving one that also seeks to minimize the impact on insureds while maintaining a mutually agreeable risk tolerance.

  1. How probabilistic risk assessment can mislead terrorism risk analysts.

    PubMed

    Brown, Gerald G; Cox, Louis Anthony Tony

    2011-02-01

    Traditional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), of the type originally developed for engineered systems, is still proposed for terrorism risk analysis. We show that such PRA applications are unjustified in general. The capacity of terrorists to seek and use information and to actively research different attack options before deciding what to do raises unique features of terrorism risk assessment that are not adequately addressed by conventional PRA for natural and engineered systems-in part because decisions based on such PRA estimates do not adequately hedge against the different probabilities that attackers may eventually act upon. These probabilities may differ from the defender's (even if the defender's experts are thoroughly trained, well calibrated, unbiased probability assessors) because they may be conditioned on different information. We illustrate the fundamental differences between PRA and terrorism risk analysis, and suggest use of robust decision analysis for risk management when attackers may know more about some attack options than we do.

  2. CANCER RISK ASSESSMENT FOR CHLOROFORM

    EPA Science Inventory

    Chloroform is a common chlorination by-product in drinking water. EPA has regulated chloroform as a probable human carcinogen under the Safe Drinking Water Act. The cancer risk estimate via ingestion was based on the 1985 Jorgenson study identifying kidney tumors in male Osborne ...

  3. Operationalization Of The Professional Risks Assessment Activity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ivascu, Victoria Larisa; Cirjaliu, Bianca; Draghici, Anca

    2015-07-01

    Professional risks assessment approach (integration of analysis and evaluation processes) is linked with the general concerns of nowadays companies for their employees' health and safety assurances, in the context of organizations sustainable development. The paper presents an approach for the operationalization of the professional risk assessment activity in companies through the implementation and use of the OnRisk platform (this have been tested in some industrial companies). The short presentation of the relevant technical reports and statistics on OSH management at the European Union level underlines the need for the development of a professional risks assessment. Finally, there have been described the designed and developed OnRisk platform as a web platform together with some case studies that have validate the created tool.

  4. Risk Assessment Stability: A Revalidation Study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment Instrument

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schwalbe, Craig S.

    2009-01-01

    The actuarial method is the gold standard for risk assessment in child welfare, juvenile justice, and criminal justice. It produces risk classifications that are highly predictive and that may be robust to sampling error. This article reports a revalidation study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment instrument, an actuarial instrument for juvenile…

  5. A Tutorial on Probablilistic Risk Assessement and its Role in Risk-Informed Decision Making

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dezfuli, Homayoon

    2010-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews risk assessment and its role in risk-informed decision making. It includes information on probabilistic risk assessment, typical risk management process, origins of risk matrix, performance measures, performance objectives and Bayes theorem.

  6. Risk Assessment and Alternatives Assessment: Comparing Two Methodologies

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    The selection and use of chemicals and materials with less hazardous profiles reflects a paradigm shift from reliance on risk minimization through exposure controls to hazard avoidance. This article introduces risk assessment and alternatives assessment frameworks in order to clarify a misconception that alternatives assessment is a less effective tool to guide decision making, discusses factors promoting the use of each framework, and also identifies how and when application of each framework is most effective. As part of an assessor's decision process to select one framework over the other, it is critical to recognize that each framework is intended to perform different functions. Although the two frameworks share a number of similarities (such as identifying hazards and assessing exposure), an alternatives assessment provides a more realistic framework with which to select environmentally preferable chemicals because of its primary reliance on assessing hazards and secondary reliance on exposure assessment. Relevant to other life cycle impacts, the hazard of a chemical is inherent, and although it may be possible to minimize exposure (and subsequently reduce risk), it is challenging to assess such exposures through a chemical's life cycle. Through increased use of alternatives assessments at the initial stage of material or product design, there will be less reliance on post facto risk‐based assessment techniques because the potential for harm is significantly reduced, if not avoided, negating the need for assessing risk in the first place. PMID:26694655

  7. Perioperative risk assessment. Common misconceptions.

    PubMed

    Mishriki, Y Y

    1989-04-01

    Proper assessment of the preoperative patient is a blend of the art and science of medicine. The body of literature dealing with the various facets of this assessment has grown in the past few years. Unfortunately, this core of knowledge is neither well taught to residents-in-training nor well appreciated by many practicing physicians. Thus, evaluation of the surgical patient is often guided by personal anecdotes and unjustified assumptions. Seven common misconceptions are addressed in this article. PMID:2648378

  8. Framework for metals risk assessment [ Journal Article

    EPA Science Inventory

    This is a science-based document that describes basic principles that address the special attributes and behaviors of metals and metal compounds to be considered when assessing their human health and ecological risks.

  9. Assessing risk: Putting toxicity in perspective

    SciTech Connect

    Williams, C.

    1993-08-01

    Opinions on risk assessment vary from believing the process to be a purely pursuit at one extreme to professing that it is merely a {open_quotes}plug and chug{close_quotes} or {open_quotes}turn the crank{close_quotes} exercise at the other. Those familiar with the field recognize, however, that risk assessment is basically a process of exercising good scientific analysis and judgement. More specifically, risk assessment is the devise by which one arrives at decisions concerning accidental chemical exposures, chemical tolerances in food, allowable workplace chemical exposures and chemicals in the environment from uncontrolled industrial and waste sites. This paper discussess risk assessment and relations to the Superfund.

  10. Uncertainty in Mixtures and Cumulative Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    Humans and environmental species are rarely exposed to single chemicals. These chemicals typically affect multiple tissues through multiple modes of action, which may depend on the dose. Mixtures risk assessment may employ dose response information from the mixture of interest,...

  11. Salivary Biomarkers for Caries Risk Assessment

    PubMed Central

    Guo, Lihong; Shi, Wenyuan

    2013-01-01

    Saliva contains various microbes and host biological components that could be used for caries risk assessment. This review focuses on the research topics that connect dental caries with saliva, including both the microbial and host components within saliva. PMID:23505756

  12. Assessing Risk with GASB Statement No. 3.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wood, Venita M.; Scott, Bob

    1987-01-01

    Discusses a Government Accounting Standards Board (GASB) publication designed to provide financial statement users with information to assess a government's actual and future deposit and investment market and credit risk. (MLF)

  13. USE OF GENOMIC DATA IN RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    Use of Genomic Data in Risk Assessment
    John C. Rockett
    Reproductive Toxicology Division, National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory, Office of Research and Development, United States Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC 27711, USA<...

  14. Risk Assessment in Finland: Theory and Practice

    PubMed Central

    Pääkkönen, Rauno

    2010-01-01

    The Finnish risk assessment practice is based on the Occupational Safety and Health (OSH) Act aiming to improve working conditions in order maintain the employees' work ability, and to prevent occupational accidents and diseases. In practice there are hundreds of risk assessment methods in use. A simple method is used in small and medium sized enterprises and more complex risk evaluation methods in larger work places. Does the risk management function in the work places in Finland? According to our experience something more is needed. That is, understanding of common and company related benefits of risk management. The wider conclusion is that commitment for risk assessment in Finland is high enough. However, in those enterprises where OSH management was at an acceptable level or above it, there were also more varied and more successfully accomplished actions to remove or reduce the risks than in enterprises, where OSH management was in lower level. In risk assessment it is important to process active technical prevention and exact communication, increase work place attraction and increase job satisfaction and motivation. Investments in OSH are also good business. Low absenteeism due to illness or accidents increases directly the production results by improved quality and quantity of the product. In general Finnish studies have consistently shown that the return of an invested euro is three to seven-old. In national level, according to our calculations the savings could be even 20% of our gross national product. PMID:22953157

  15. Risk Assessment in Child Sexual Abuse Cases

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Levenson, Jill S.; Morin, John W.

    2006-01-01

    Despite continuing improvements in risk assessment for child protective services (CPS) and movement toward actuarial prediction of child maltreatment, current models have not adequately addressed child sexual abuse. Sexual abuse cases present unique and ambiguous indicators to the investigating professional, and risk factors differ from those…

  16. 2007 TOXICOLOGY AND RISK ASSESSMENT CONFERENCE

    EPA Science Inventory

    EPA has announced

    The 2007 Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference
    Cincinnati Marriott North, West Chester (Cincinnati), OH
    April 23- 26, 2007 - Click to register!

    The Annual Toxicology and Risk Ass...

  17. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    2013-11-15

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary.

  18. APPLICATION OF FETAX IN ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENTS: A CRITICAL ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    A workshop sponsored by NIEHS in 2000 evaluated the use of FETAX as a screening method for identifying the developmental toxicity potenial of chemical and environmental samples. Workshop recommendations pertinent to environmental risk assessment suggested that additional comparat...

  19. Risk assessment Barter Island radar installation, Alaska

    SciTech Connect

    1995-05-05

    This document contains the baseline human health risk assessment and the ecological risk assessment (ERA) for the Barter Island Distant Early Warning (DEW) Line radar installation. Fourteen sites at the Barter Island radar installation underwent remedial investigations (RIS) during the summer of 1993. The presence of chemical contamination in the soil, sediments, and surface water at the installation was evaluated and reported in the Barter Island Remedial Investigation/Feasibility Study (RI/FS) United States Air Force 1994a. The analytical data reported in the RI/FS form the basis for the human health and ecological risk assessment. The primary contaminants of concern at the 14 sites are diesel and gasoline from past spills and/or leaks. The general location of the Barter Island radar installation is shown in Figure 1-1. The 14 sites investigated and the types of samples collected at each site are presented in Table 1-1. The purpose of the risk assessment is to evaluate the human and ecological health risks that may be associated with chemicals released to the environment at the 14 sites investigated during the RIs. The risk assessment characterizes the probability that measured concentrations of hazardous chemical substances will cause adverse effects in humans or the environment in the absence of remediation. The risk assessment will be used to determine if remediation (site cleanup) is necessary and also to rank sites for remedial action. Additionally, it will be used as a model for the risk assessment to be performed at the other DEW Line installations (Bullen Point, Oliktok Point, Point Lonely, Barrow Point, Wainwright, and Point Lay) and the Cape Lisburne radar installation. pg18. JMD.

  20. Assessing Your Board's Risk Tolerance

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Griswold, John S.; Jarvis, William F.

    2014-01-01

    In the wake of the financial crisis, trustees of many endowed nonprofit institutions realized that their portfolio was riskier than they thought and their own ability to tolerate loss wasn't as strong as they imagined. What can board and investment committee members do to improve their ability to assess their--and their institution's--capacity for…

  1. Ecosystem services as assessment endpoints for ecological risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Munns, Wayne R; Rea, Anne W; Suter, Glenn W; Martin, Lawrence; Blake-Hedges, Lynne; Crk, Tanja; Davis, Christine; Ferreira, Gina; Jordan, Steve; Mahoney, Michele; Barron, Mace G

    2016-07-01

    Ecosystem services are defined as the outputs of ecological processes that contribute to human welfare or have the potential to do so in the future. Those outputs include food and drinking water, clean air and water, and pollinated crops. The need to protect the services provided by natural systems has been recognized previously, but ecosystem services have not been formally incorporated into ecological risk assessment practice in a general way in the United States. Endpoints used conventionally in ecological risk assessment, derived directly from the state of the ecosystem (e.g., biophysical structure and processes), and endpoints based on ecosystem services serve different purposes. Conventional endpoints are ecologically important and susceptible entities and attributes that are protected under US laws and regulations. Ecosystem service endpoints are a conceptual and analytical step beyond conventional endpoints and are intended to complement conventional endpoints by linking and extending endpoints to goods and services with more obvious benefit to humans. Conventional endpoints can be related to ecosystem services even when the latter are not considered explicitly during problem formulation. To advance the use of ecosystem service endpoints in ecological risk assessment, the US Environmental Protection Agency's Risk Assessment Forum has added generic endpoints based on ecosystem services (ES-GEAE) to the original 2003 set of generic ecological assessment endpoints (GEAEs). Like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are defined by an entity and an attribute. Also like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are broadly described and will need to be made specific when applied to individual assessments. Adoption of ecosystem services as a type of assessment endpoint is intended to improve the value of risk assessment to environmental decision making, linking ecological risk to human well-being, and providing an improved means of communicating those risks. Integr Environ Assess Manag

  2. Ecosystem services as assessment endpoints for ecological risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Munns, Wayne R; Rea, Anne W; Suter, Glenn W; Martin, Lawrence; Blake-Hedges, Lynne; Crk, Tanja; Davis, Christine; Ferreira, Gina; Jordan, Steve; Mahoney, Michele; Barron, Mace G

    2016-07-01

    Ecosystem services are defined as the outputs of ecological processes that contribute to human welfare or have the potential to do so in the future. Those outputs include food and drinking water, clean air and water, and pollinated crops. The need to protect the services provided by natural systems has been recognized previously, but ecosystem services have not been formally incorporated into ecological risk assessment practice in a general way in the United States. Endpoints used conventionally in ecological risk assessment, derived directly from the state of the ecosystem (e.g., biophysical structure and processes), and endpoints based on ecosystem services serve different purposes. Conventional endpoints are ecologically important and susceptible entities and attributes that are protected under US laws and regulations. Ecosystem service endpoints are a conceptual and analytical step beyond conventional endpoints and are intended to complement conventional endpoints by linking and extending endpoints to goods and services with more obvious benefit to humans. Conventional endpoints can be related to ecosystem services even when the latter are not considered explicitly during problem formulation. To advance the use of ecosystem service endpoints in ecological risk assessment, the US Environmental Protection Agency's Risk Assessment Forum has added generic endpoints based on ecosystem services (ES-GEAE) to the original 2003 set of generic ecological assessment endpoints (GEAEs). Like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are defined by an entity and an attribute. Also like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are broadly described and will need to be made specific when applied to individual assessments. Adoption of ecosystem services as a type of assessment endpoint is intended to improve the value of risk assessment to environmental decision making, linking ecological risk to human well-being, and providing an improved means of communicating those risks. Integr Environ Assess Manag

  3. NATIONAL-SCALE ASSESSMENT OF AIR TOXICS RISKS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The national-scale assessment of air toxics risks is a modeling assessment which combines emission inventory development, atmospheric fate and transport modeling, exposure modeling, and risk assessment to characterize the risk associated with inhaling air toxics from outdoor sour...

  4. Biological Based Risk Assessment for Space Exploration

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cucinotta, Francis A.

    2011-01-01

    Exposures from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) - made up of high-energy protons and high-energy and charge (HZE) nuclei, and solar particle events (SPEs) - comprised largely of low- to medium-energy protons are the primary health concern for astronauts for long-term space missions. Experimental studies have shown that HZE nuclei produce both qualitative and quantitative differences in biological effects compared to terrestrial radiation, making risk assessments for cancer and degenerative risks, such as central nervous system effects and heart disease, highly uncertain. The goal for space radiation protection at NASA is to be able to reduce the uncertainties in risk assessments for Mars exploration to be small enough to ensure acceptable levels of risks are not exceeded and to adequately assess the efficacy of mitigation measures such as shielding or biological countermeasures. We review the recent BEIR VII and UNSCEAR-2006 models of cancer risks and their uncertainties. These models are shown to have an inherent 2-fold uncertainty as defined by ratio of the 95% percent confidence level to the mean projection, even before radiation quality is considered. In order to overcome the uncertainties in these models, new approaches to risk assessment are warranted. We consider new computational biology approaches to modeling cancer risks. A basic program of research that includes stochastic descriptions of the physics and chemistry of radiation tracks and biochemistry of metabolic pathways, to emerging biological understanding of cellular and tissue modifications leading to cancer is described.

  5. Risk Assessment in the 21st Century

    EPA Science Inventory

    For the past ~50 years, risk assessment depended almost exclusively on animal testing for hazard identification and dose-response assessment. Originally sound and effective, with increasing dependence on chemical tools and the number of chemicals in commerce, this traditional app...

  6. Validating a multifactorial falls risk assessment.

    PubMed

    James, Michele B; Kimmons, Nancy J; Schasberger, Britta; Lefkowitz, Abigail

    2014-01-01

    Reducing risk of falls has been identified as a national safety goal by The Joint Commission (TJC). The purpose was to determine if the total score on the multifactorial Falls Risk Assessment accurately identifies the risk of falls in a homebound client. In addition, the study examined if any individual item had a higher predictive power with the incidence of falls. One hundred clients (> 65 years old) who sustained an avoidable fall during a home care episode of care, plus 25 home care clients in the same age range and time period, who did not fall. A retrospective chart review, including Falls Risk Assessment (FRA) performed at start of care, demographic information, specific physical therapy (PT) evaluation, and visit notes if necessary to determine if the fall met the inclusion criteria. Scores for each individual area of the assessment were collected for statistical analysis. Data were analyzed by a biostatistician using simple linear regression, t-tests, and regression of variable combinations. The total score on the multifactorial risk assessment tool was shown to have a strong relationship with incidence of falls. The average scores of individuals who fell after assessment were significantly higher than those of individuals who did not fall. No single factors were found to be highly predictive. A single approach to decreasing falls is likely to be less effective than a multipronged approach. Caregivers and providers are advised to consider the entirety of the falls risk and direct comprehensive interventions to address the multiple factors that lead to falls.

  7. Blue print for building a risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Otsuki, H.K.; Eagan-McNeill, E.

    1997-05-01

    Federal and stet regulations require the operator of a miscellaneous waste treatment unit to demonstrate compliance with environmental performance standard. A sample risk assessment is demonstrated as a means of showing compliance for such a treatment unit. A new Open Burning and Open Detonation (OB/OD) facility for explosive wastes at LLNL experimental site is used. Simplified, the process of performing a risk assessment consists of characterization of the treatment operation and estimation of emission rates; evaluation of the emission dispersion to estimate acute exposure; and evaluation of human and environmental risks. Each step may require the environmental analysts to perform detained date gathering, modeling and calculations, and to negotiate with facility operations personnel and regulatory representatives. The Risk Assessment Protocol, which explains the assumptions, model selection and inputs, and data selection, must ultimately withstand the rigors of regulatory review and public scrutiny.s

  8. Incorporating Nonchemical Stressors Into Cumulative Risk Assessments

    PubMed Central

    Rider, Cynthia V.; Dourson, Michael L.; Hertzberg, Richard C.; Mumtaz, Moiz M.; Price, Paul S.; Simmons, Jane Ellen

    2012-01-01

    The role of nonchemical stressors in modulating the human health risk associated with chemical exposures is an area of increasing attention. On 9 March 2011, a workshop titled “Approaches for Incorporating Nonchemical Stressors into Cumulative Risk Assessment” took place during the 50th Anniversary Annual Society of Toxicology Meeting in Washington D.C. Objectives of the workshop included describing the current state of the science from various perspectives (i.e., regulatory, exposure, modeling, and risk assessment) and presenting expert opinions on currently available methods for incorporating nonchemical stressors into cumulative risk assessments. Herein, distinct frameworks for characterizing exposure to, joint effects of, and risk associated with chemical and nonchemical stressors are discussed. PMID:22345310

  9. Hanford waste vitrification systems risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Miller, W.C.; Hamilton, D.W.; Holton, L.K.; Bailey, J.W.

    1991-09-01

    A systematic Risk Assessment was performed to identify the technical, regulatory, and programmatic uncertainties and to quantify the risks to the Hanford Site double-shell tank waste vitrification program baseline (as defined in December 1990). Mitigating strategies to reduce the overall program risk were proposed. All major program elements were evaluated, including double-shell tank waste characterization, Tank Farms, retrieval, pretreatment, vitrification, and grouting. Computer-based techniques were used to quantify risks to proceeding with construction of the Hanford Waste Vitrification Plant on the present baseline schedule. Risks to the potential vitrification of single-shell tank wastes and cesium and strontium capsules were also assessed. 62 refs., 38 figs., 26 tabs.

  10. Ecological risk assessment of endocrine disruptors.

    PubMed Central

    Hutchinson, T H; Brown, R; Brugger, K E; Campbell, P M; Holt, M; Länge, R; McCahon, P; Tattersfield, L J; van Egmond, R

    2000-01-01

    The European Centre for Ecotoxicology and Toxicology of Chemicals proposes a tiered approach for the ecological risk assessment of endocrine disruptors, integrating exposure and hazard (effects) characterization. Exposure assessment for endocrine disruptors should direct specific tests for wildlife species, placing hazard data into a risk assessment context. Supplementing the suite of mammalian screens now under Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) validation, high priority should be given to developing a fish screening assay for detecting endocrine activity in oviparous species. Taking into account both exposure characterization and alerts from endocrine screening, higher tier tests are also a priority for defining adverse effects. We propose that in vivo mammalian and fish assays provide a comprehensive screening battery for diverse hormonal functions (including androgen, estrogen, and thyroid hormone), whereas Amphibia should be considered at higher tiers if there are exposure concerns. Higher tier endocrine-disruptor testing should include fish development and fish reproduction tests, whereas a full life-cycle test could be subsequently used to refine aquatic risk assessments when necessary. For avian risk assessment, the new OECD Japanese quail reproduction test guideline provides a valuable basis for developing a test to detecting endocrine-mediated reproductive effects; this species could be used, where necessary, for an avian life-cycle test. For aquatic and terrestrial invertebrates, data from existing developmental and reproductive tests remain of high value for ecological risk assessment. High priority should be given to research into comparative endocrine physiology of invertebrates to support data extrapolation to this diverse fauna. PMID:11102288

  11. Modeling food spoilage in microbial risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Koutsoumanis, Konstantinos

    2009-02-01

    In this study, I describe a systematic approach for modeling food spoilage in microbial risk assessment that is based on the incorporation of kinetic spoilage modeling in exposure assessment by combining data and models for the specific spoilage organisms (SSO: fraction of the total microflora responsible for spoilage) with those for pathogens. The structure of the approach is presented through an exposure assessment application for Escherichia coli O157:H7 in ground beef. The proposed approach allows for identifying spoiled products at the time of consumption by comparing the estimated level of SSO (pseudomonads) with the spoilage level (level of SSO at which spoilage is observed). The results of the application indicate that ignoring spoilage in risk assessment could lead to significant overestimations of risk.

  12. Integrating public risk perception into formal natural hazard risk assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Plattner, Th.; Plapp, T.; Hebel, B.

    2006-06-01

    An urgent need to take perception into account for risk assessment has been pointed out by relevant literature, its impact in terms of risk-related behaviour by individuals is obvious. This study represents an effort to overcome the broadly discussed question of whether risk perception is quantifiable or not by proposing a still simple but applicable methodology. A novel approach is elaborated to obtain a more accurate and comprehensive quantification of risk in comparison to present formal risk evaluation practice. A consideration of relevant factors enables a explicit quantification of individual risk perception and evaluation. The model approach integrates the effective individual risk reff and a weighted mean of relevant perception affecting factors PAF. The relevant PAF cover voluntariness of risk-taking, individual reducibility of risk, knowledge and experience, endangerment, subjective damage rating and subjective recurrence frequency perception. The approach assigns an individual weight to each PAF to represent its impact magnitude. The quantification of these weights is target-group-dependent (e.g. experts, laypersons) and may be effected by psychometric methods. The novel approach is subject to a plausibility check using data from an expert-workshop. A first model application is conducted by means of data of an empirical risk perception study in Western Germany to deduce PAF and weight quantification as well as to confirm and evaluate model applicbility and flexibility. Main fields of application will be a quantification of risk perception by individual persons in a formal and technical way e.g. for the purpose of risk communication issues in illustrating differing perspectives of experts and non-experts. For decision making processes this model will have to be applied with caution, since it is by definition not designed to quantify risk acceptance or risk evaluation. The approach may well explain how risk perception differs, but not why it differs. The

  13. Assessing patients' risk of febrile neutropenia: is there a correlation between physician-assessed risk and model-predicted risk?

    PubMed

    Lyman, Gary H; Dale, David C; Legg, Jason C; Abella, Esteban; Morrow, Phuong Khanh; Whittaker, Sadie; Crawford, Jeffrey

    2015-08-01

    This study evaluated the correlation between the risk of febrile neutropenia (FN) estimated by physicians and the risk of severe neutropenia or FN predicted by a validated multivariate model in patients with nonmyeloid malignancies receiving chemotherapy. Before patient enrollment, physician and site characteristics were recorded, and physicians self-reported the FN risk at which they would typically consider granulocyte colony-stimulating factor (G-CSF) primary prophylaxis (FN risk intervention threshold). For each patient, physicians electronically recorded their estimated FN risk, orders for G-CSF primary prophylaxis (yes/no), and patient characteristics for model predictions. Correlations between physician-assessed FN risk and model-predicted risk (primary endpoints) and between physician-assessed FN risk and G-CSF orders were calculated. Overall, 124 community-based oncologists registered; 944 patients initiating chemotherapy with intermediate FN risk enrolled. Median physician-assessed FN risk over all chemotherapy cycles was 20.0%, and median model-predicted risk was 17.9%; the correlation was 0.249 (95% CI, 0.179-0.316). The correlation between physician-assessed FN risk and subsequent orders for G-CSF primary prophylaxis (n = 634) was 0.313 (95% CI, 0.135-0.472). Among patients with a physician-assessed FN risk ≥ 20%, 14% did not receive G-CSF orders. G-CSF was not ordered for 16% of patients at or above their physician's self-reported FN risk intervention threshold (median, 20.0%) and was ordered for 21% below the threshold. Physician-assessed FN risk and model-predicted risk correlated weakly; however, there was moderate correlation between physician-assessed FN risk and orders for G-CSF primary prophylaxis. Further research and education on FN risk factors and appropriate G-CSF use are needed.

  14. Resource handbook on transportation risk assessment.

    SciTech Connect

    Chen, S. Y.; Biwer, B. M.; Monette, F. A.; Environmental Assessment; SNL; BAPL; USOE; Battelle Memorial Inst.

    2003-01-01

    This resource handbook contains useful information to streamline radioactive material transportation risk assessments for National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) documents prepared for U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) programs. Streamlining refers to instituting steps that can increase the efficiency of future assessments, reduce costs, and promote increased quality and consistency across the DOE complex. This handbook takes advantage of the wealth of information developed through decades of DOE's NEPA experience. It contains a review of historical assessments; a description of comprehensive and generally acceptable transportation risk assessment methodology (i.e., models); and a compilation of supporting data, parameters, and generally accepted assumptions. This handbook also includes a discussion paper that addresses cumulative impacts (Appendix A). The discussion paper illustrates the evolving and sometimes unresolved issues encountered in transportation risk assessment. Other topics, such as sabotage, environmental justice, and human factors, may be addressed in the future. This resource document was developed as the first primary reference book providing useful information for conducting transportation risk assessments for radioactive material in the NEPA context.

  15. Risk assessment and risk management of noncriteria pollutants.

    PubMed

    Lee, S D

    1990-10-01

    Noncriteria air pollutants are synonymous with hazardous air pollutants (HAPs), air toxics or toxic air pollutants (TAPs). The term noncriteria pollutants refers to all air pollutants except for the criteria pollutants (SOx, PM, NOx, CO, O3, and Pb). Air toxics are pervasive in our environment worldwide in varying degrees. Uses of these chemicals are varied and numerous; their emissions are ubiquitous, and they include organic compounds such as chlorinated hydrocarbons, dioxins, aldehydes, polynuclear aromatic hydrocarbons, and heavy metals such as chromium, nickel, cadmium, and mercury. There are more than 70,000 chemicals that are in use commercially in the United States, and we know relatively little about their ambient concentrations, persistence, transport and transformation as well as their effects on health and the environment, many of which take decades to emerge. The United States Environmental Protection Agency, under the authority of Section 112 of the Clean Air Act, is mandated to regulate any air pollutant which, in the Administrator's judgment, "causes, or contributes to, air pollution which may reasonably be anticipated to result in an increase in serious irreversible or incapacitating reversible illness." For such regulatory decision-making, EPA's Office of Health and Environmental Assessment (OHEA) provides scientific assessment of health effects for potentially hazardous air pollutants. In accordance with risk assessment guidelines developed by OHEA over the years, Health Assessment Documents (HADs) containing risk assessment information were prepared and were subjected to critical review and careful revision to produce Final Draft HADs which serve as scientific databases for regulatory decision-making by the Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards (OAQPS) in its risk management process. EPA developed databases such as the Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) and the National Air Toxics Information Clearinghouse (NATICH) and a technical

  16. Risk factors for and assessment of constipation.

    PubMed

    Chapman, Sherree; Hungerford, Catherine

    2015-04-01

    Constipation commonly occurs in older people, particularly in hospital or residential care settings, and leads to decreased quality of life and increased healthcare costs. Despite its frequency, however, nurses often overlook the condition. One possible reason for this may be the lack of appropriate tools or scales for nurses to assess risk factors for developing constipation. This article identifies, from the academic literature, 14 risk factors for developing constipation in older people. These factors are then considered in light of four common constipation assessment charts. The article concludes by arguing the need for more comprehensive assessment tools to, firstly, identify risk factors; and, secondly, support the implementation of appropriate preventative strategies that will enable better health outcomes for older people.

  17. Method and apparatus for assessing cardiovascular risk

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Albrecht, Paul (Inventor); Bigger, J. Thomas (Inventor); Cohen, Richard J. (Inventor)

    1998-01-01

    The method for assessing risk of an adverse clinical event includes detecting a physiologic signal in the subject and determining from the physiologic signal a sequence of intervals corresponding to time intervals between heart beats. The long-time structure of fluctuations in the intervals over a time period of more than fifteen minutes is analyzed to assess risk of an adverse clinical event. In a preferred embodiment, the physiologic signal is an electrocardiogram and the time period is at least fifteen minutes. A preferred method for analyzing the long-time structure variability in the intervals includes computing the power spectrum and fitting the power spectrum to a power law dependence on frequency over a selected frequency range such as 10.sup.-4 to 10.sup.-2 Hz. Characteristics of the long-time structure fluctuations in the intervals is used to assess risk of an adverse clinical event.

  18. Concepts of modern risk assessment and management.

    PubMed

    Corbin, S B

    1994-01-01

    An emerging and increasingly complex array of environmental health concerns face dental practitioners in both the private and public sectors. These concerns are challenging and possibly threatening the traditionally inviolable dentist-patient relationship. Regulatory bodies, health risk experts, attorneys, and enthusiastic media are inserting themselves into the process. Essential assets for "successful" dental practitioners include enhanced expertise in basic science and technology, including the area of risk assessment, and development of broadened perspectives and skills for communicating with patients and the public.

  19. Recidivism Risk Assessment for Adult Sexual Offenders.

    PubMed

    Holoyda, Brian J; Newman, William J

    2016-02-01

    Sexual offending is a significant public health problem in the USA due to its prevalence and the substantial impact it has on victims, victims' families, and the legal and mental health systems. The assessment of sexual offender recidivism risk is an important aspect of developing effective management strategies for sexual offenders in terms of placement, treatment, and other interventions. Researchers have developed numerous tools to aid in the assessment of sexual violence recidivism risk, including actuarial measures, structured professional judgment methods, and psychophysiologic assessment of sexual interests. The Static-99R and Sexual Violence Risk-20 are two instruments that have received substantial research attention for their ability to accurately compare offenders' risk of recidivism to normative group data. Penile plethysmography and visual reaction time are used to evaluate subjects' responses to sexual stimuli in an effort to characterize offenders' sexual arousal and interest, respectively. Though current research has focused on risk assessment tools' predictive utility, future research will need to examine the impact that actuarial and structured professional judgment tools have on reducing recidivism if they are to have relevance in the management of sexual offenders. PMID:26781555

  20. Assessment of health risks of policies

    SciTech Connect

    Ádám, Balázs; Molnár, Ágnes; Ádány, Róza; Bianchi, Fabrizio; Bitenc, Katarina; Chereches, Razvan; Cori, Liliana; Fehr, Rainer; Kobza, Joanna; Kollarova, Jana; and others

    2014-09-15

    The assessment of health risks of policies is an inevitable, although challenging prerequisite for the inclusion of health considerations in political decision making. The aim of our project was to develop a so far missing methodological guide for the assessment of the complex impact structure of policies. The guide was developed in a consensual way based on experiences gathered during the assessment of specific national policies selected by the partners of an EU project. Methodological considerations were discussed and summarized in workshops and pilot tested on the EU Health Strategy for finalization. The combined tool, which includes a textual guidance and a checklist, follows the top-down approach, that is, it guides the analysis of causal chains from the policy through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The tool discusses the most important practical issues of assessment by impact level. It emphasises the transparent identification and prioritisation of factors, the consideration of the feasibility of exposure and outcome assessment with special focus on quantification. The developed guide provides useful methodological instructions for the comprehensive assessment of health risks of policies that can be effectively used in the health impact assessment of policy proposals. - Highlights: • Methodological guide for the assessment of health risks of policies is introduced. • The tool is developed based on the experiences from several case studies. • The combined tool consists of a textual guidance and a checklist. • The top-down approach is followed through the levels of the full impact chain. • The guide provides assistance for the health impact assessment of policy proposals.

  1. Recording pressure ulcer risk assessment and incidence.

    PubMed

    Plaskitt, Anne; Heywood, Nicola; Arrowsmith, Michaela

    2015-07-15

    This article reports on the introduction of an innovative computer-based system developed to record and report pressure ulcer risk and incidence at an acute NHS trust. The system was introduced to ensure that all patients have an early pressure ulcer risk assessment, which prompts staff to initiate appropriate management if a pressure ulcer is detected, thereby preventing further patient harm. Initial findings suggest that this electronic process has helped to improve the timeliness and accuracy of data on pressure ulcer risk and incidence. In addition, it has resulted in a reduced number of reported hospital-acquired pressure ulcers.

  2. New method for assessing risks of email

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Raja, Seyyed H.; Afrooz, Farzad

    2013-03-01

    E-mail technology, has become one of the requirements of human lives for correspondence between individuals. Given this, the important point is that the messages, server and client of e-mail and correspondences that exchanged between different people have acceptable security, to make people sure to use of this technology. In the information age, many of financial and non financial transactions are done electronically, data exchange takes place via the internet and theft and manipulation of data can make exorbitant cost in terms of integrity, financial, political, economic and culture. E-mail correspondence in there is same and it is very important. With review took place, a method that will focus on email system for risks assessment is not provided. We are examining ways of assessing for other systems and their strengths and weaknesses, then we use Mr Convery method for assessing email risks which it is for assessing network risks. At the end of paper we have offered special table for email risk assessment.

  3. Supplemental risk-assessment guidance for the Superfund program. Part 1. Guidance for Public-Health Risk Assessments. Part 2. Guidance for ecological Risk Assessments. Draft report (Final)

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1989-06-01

    This guidance manual was developed to address the practical aspects and issues pertaining to the Superfund risk-assessment process for both public health and environment concerns. Part 1, Guidance for Public Health Risk Assessments, supplements the Superfund Public Health Evaluation Manual and Superfund Exposure Assessment Manual and the Endangerment Assessment Handbook. Explicit guidance on technical matters which should be followed in developing public health risk assessments for EPA Region 1. The guidance addresses hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, risk characterization, and uncertainty/limitations. Part 2 of the manual, Guidance for Ecological Risk Assessments, addresses the collection of site-specific data needed to support an ecological risk assessment, describes a framework for conducting the assessments, and provides several specific approaches for assessing risks to systems exposed to chemical contamination in different media.

  4. Health effects of risk-assessment categories

    SciTech Connect

    Kramer, C.F.; Rybicka, K.; Knutson, A.; Morris, S.C.

    1983-10-01

    Environmental and occupational health effects associated with exposures to various chemicals are a subject of increasing concern. One recently developed methodology for assessing the health impacts of various chemical compounds involves the classification of similar chemicals into risk-assessment categories (RACs). This report reviews documented human health effects for a broad range of pollutants, classified by RACs. It complements other studies that have estimated human health effects by RAC based on analysis and extrapolation of data from animal research.

  5. TOXICOGENOMICS AND HUMAN DISEASE RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory


    Toxicogenomics and Human Disease Risk Assessment.

    Complete sequencing of human and other genomes, availability of large-scale gene
    expression arrays with ever-increasing numbers of genes displayed, and steady
    improvements in protein expression technology can hav...

  6. Risk Assessment with Adolescent Sex Offenders

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Christodoulides, T. E.; Richardson, G.; Graham, F.; Kennedy, P. J.; Kelly, T. P.

    2005-01-01

    The paper describes an evaluation of a risk assessment tool's effectiveness in distinguishing adolescent sexual offenders who had committed further sexual offences from those who had not. The sample consisted of 50 male adolescent sexual offenders referred to a forensic outpatient service within a healthcare setting. The adolescents within the…

  7. Computational Toxicology in Cancer Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    Risk assessment over the last half century has, for many individual cases served us well, but has proceeded on an extremely slow pace and has left us with considerable uncertainty. There are certainly thousands of compounds and thousands of exposure scenarios that remain unteste...

  8. Chemical Mixtures: Cancer Risk Assessment Approaches

    EPA Science Inventory

    Presentation will describe how EPA uses linear and nonlinear methods to derive cancer slope factors and reference doses,respectively, for single carcinogens, as described in EPA's 2005 Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Assessment. Then, the presentation will show how these toxicity ...

  9. CUMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT FOR QUANTITATIVE RESPONSE DATA

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Relative Potency Factor approach (RPF) is used to normalize and combine different toxic potencies among a group of chemicals selected for cumulative risk assessment. The RPF method assumes that the slopes of the dose-response functions are all equal; but this method depends o...

  10. Clinical Model for Suicide Risk Assessment.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kral, Michael J.; Sakinofsky, Isaac

    1994-01-01

    Presents suicide risk assessment in a two-tiered model comprising background/contextual factors and subjectivity. The subjectivity portion is formulated around Shneidman's concepts of perturbation and lethality. Discusses decision of hospital admission versus ambulatory care. Suggests that theoretically informed approach should serve both…

  11. Assessing suicide risk in older adults.

    PubMed

    Diggle-Fox, Barbara Suzy

    2016-10-20

    Suicide in older adults is continuing to rise and, as the older population increases, so will the rate of suicide. By learning more about the risk factors, assessment areas to explore, and ways to improve treatment, primary care providers can help decrease the incidence of suicidal behaviors in this population. PMID:27623296

  12. AXES OF EXTRAPOLATION IN RISK ASSESSMENTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Extrapolation in risk assessment involves the use of data and information to estimate or predict something that has not been measured or observed. Reasons for extrapolation include that the number of combinations of environmental stressors and possible receptors is too large to c...

  13. QUANTITATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT FOR MICROBIAL AGENTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Compared to chemical risk assessment, the process for microbial agents and infectious disease is more complex because of host factors and the variety of settings in which disease transmission can occur. While the National Academy of Science has established a paradigm for performi...

  14. The NASA Space Radiobiology Risk Assessment Project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cucinotta, Francis A.; Huff, Janice; Ponomarev, Artem; Patel, Zarana; Kim, Myung-Hee

    The current first phase (2006-2011) has the three major goals of: 1) optimizing the conventional cancer risk models currently used based on the double-detriment life-table and radiation quality functions; 2) the integration of biophysical models of acute radiation syndromes; and 3) the development of new systems radiation biology models of cancer processes. The first-phase also includes continued uncertainty assessment of space radiation environmental models and transport codes, and relative biological effectiveness factors (RBE) based on flight data and NSRL results, respectively. The second phase of the (2012-2016) will: 1) develop biophysical models of central nervous system risks (CNS); 2) achieve comphrensive systems biology models of cancer processes using data from proton and heavy ion studies performed at NSRL; and 3) begin to identify computational models of biological countermeasures. Goals for the third phase (2017-2021) include: 1) the development of a systems biology model of cancer risks for operational use at NASA; 2) development of models of degenerative risks, 2) quantitative models of counter-measure impacts on cancer risks; and 3) indiviudal based risk assessments. Finally, we will support a decision point to continue NSRL research in support of NASA's exploration goals beyond 2021, and create an archival of NSRL research results for continued analysis. Details on near term goals, plans for a WEB based data resource of NSRL results, and a space radiation Wikepedia are described.

  15. Resources for global risk assessment: the International Toxicity Estimates for Risk (ITER) and Risk Information Exchange (RiskIE) databases.

    PubMed

    Wullenweber, Andrea; Kroner, Oliver; Kohrman, Melissa; Maier, Andrew; Dourson, Michael; Rak, Andrew; Wexler, Philip; Tomljanovic, Chuck

    2008-11-15

    The rate of chemical synthesis and use has outpaced the development of risk values and the resolution of risk assessment methodology questions. In addition, available risk values derived by different organizations may vary due to scientific judgments, mission of the organization, or use of more recently published data. Further, each organization derives values for a unique chemical list so it can be challenging to locate data on a given chemical. Two Internet resources are available to address these issues. First, the International Toxicity Estimates for Risk (ITER) database (www.tera.org/iter) provides chronic human health risk assessment data from a variety of organizations worldwide in a side-by-side format, explains differences in risk values derived by different organizations, and links directly to each organization's website for more detailed information. It is also the only database that includes risk information from independent parties whose risk values have undergone independent peer review. Second, the Risk Information Exchange (RiskIE) is a database of in progress chemical risk assessment work, and includes non-chemical information related to human health risk assessment, such as training modules, white papers and risk documents. RiskIE is available at http://www.allianceforrisk.org/RiskIE.htm, and will join ITER on National Library of Medicine's TOXNET (http://toxnet.nlm.nih.gov/). Together, ITER and RiskIE provide risk assessors essential tools for easily identifying and comparing available risk data, for sharing in progress assessments, and for enhancing interaction among risk assessment groups to decrease duplication of effort and to harmonize risk assessment procedures across organizations.

  16. Resources for global risk assessment: The International Toxicity Estimates for Risk (ITER) and Risk Information Exchange (RiskIE) databases

    SciTech Connect

    Wullenweber, Andrea Kroner, Oliver; Kohrman, Melissa; Maier, Andrew; Dourson, Michael; Rak, Andrew; Wexler, Philip; Tomljanovic, Chuck

    2008-11-15

    The rate of chemical synthesis and use has outpaced the development of risk values and the resolution of risk assessment methodology questions. In addition, available risk values derived by different organizations may vary due to scientific judgments, mission of the organization, or use of more recently published data. Further, each organization derives values for a unique chemical list so it can be challenging to locate data on a given chemical. Two Internet resources are available to address these issues. First, the International Toxicity Estimates for Risk (ITER) database ( (www.tera.org/iter)) provides chronic human health risk assessment data from a variety of organizations worldwide in a side-by-side format, explains differences in risk values derived by different organizations, and links directly to each organization's website for more detailed information. It is also the only database that includes risk information from independent parties whose risk values have undergone independent peer review. Second, the Risk Information Exchange (RiskIE) is a database of in progress chemical risk assessment work, and includes non-chemical information related to human health risk assessment, such as training modules, white papers and risk documents. RiskIE is available at (http://www.allianceforrisk.org/RiskIE.htm), and will join ITER on National Library of Medicine's TOXNET ( (http://toxnet.nlm.nih.gov/)). Together, ITER and RiskIE provide risk assessors essential tools for easily identifying and comparing available risk data, for sharing in progress assessments, and for enhancing interaction among risk assessment groups to decrease duplication of effort and to harmonize risk assessment procedures across organizations.

  17. Transparent Global Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smolka, Anselm; Schneider, John; Pinho, Rui; Crowley, Helen

    2013-04-01

    Vulnerability to earthquakes is increasing, yet advanced reliable risk assessment tools and data are inaccessible to most, despite being a critical basis for managing risk. Also, there are few, if any, global standards that allow us to compare risk between various locations. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is a unique collaborative effort that aims to provide organizations and individuals with tools and resources for transparent assessment of earthquake risk anywhere in the world. By pooling data, knowledge and people, GEM acts as an international forum for collaboration and exchange, and leverages the knowledge of leading experts for the benefit of society. Sharing of data and risk information, best practices, and approaches across the globe is key to assessing risk more effectively. Through global projects, open-source IT development and collaborations with more than 10 regions, leading experts are collaboratively developing unique global datasets, best practice, open tools and models for seismic hazard and risk assessment. Guided by the needs and experiences of governments, companies and citizens at large, they work in continuous interaction with the wider community. A continuously expanding public-private partnership constitutes the GEM Foundation, which drives the collaborative GEM effort. An integrated and holistic approach to risk is key to GEM's risk assessment platform, OpenQuake, that integrates all above-mentioned contributions and will become available towards the end of 2014. Stakeholders worldwide will be able to calculate, visualise and investigate earthquake risk, capture new data and to share their findings for joint learning. Homogenized information on hazard can be combined with data on exposure (buildings, population) and data on their vulnerability, for loss assessment around the globe. Furthermore, for a true integrated view of seismic risk, users can add social vulnerability and resilience indices to maps and estimate the costs and benefits

  18. Exploring the uncertainties in cancer risk assessment using the integrated probabilistic risk assessment (IPRA) approach.

    PubMed

    Slob, Wout; Bakker, Martine I; Biesebeek, Jan Dirk Te; Bokkers, Bas G H

    2014-08-01

    Current methods for cancer risk assessment result in single values, without any quantitative information on the uncertainties in these values. Therefore, single risk values could easily be overinterpreted. In this study, we discuss a full probabilistic cancer risk assessment approach in which all the generally recognized uncertainties in both exposure and hazard assessment are quantitatively characterized and probabilistically evaluated, resulting in a confidence interval for the final risk estimate. The methodology is applied to three example chemicals (aflatoxin, N-nitrosodimethylamine, and methyleugenol). These examples illustrate that the uncertainty in a cancer risk estimate may be huge, making single value estimates of cancer risk meaningless. Further, a risk based on linear extrapolation tends to be lower than the upper 95% confidence limit of a probabilistic risk estimate, and in that sense it is not conservative. Our conceptual analysis showed that there are two possible basic approaches for cancer risk assessment, depending on the interpretation of the dose-incidence data measured in animals. However, it remains unclear which of the two interpretations is the more adequate one, adding an additional uncertainty to the already huge confidence intervals for cancer risk estimates.

  19. Fragility fracture: recent developments in risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Aspray, Terry J

    2015-02-01

    More than half of older women who sustain a fragility fracture do not have osteoporosis by World Health Organization (WHO) bone mineral density (BMD) criteria; and, while BMD has been used to assess fracture risk for over 30 years, a range of other skeletal and nonskeletal clinical risk factors (CRFs) for fracture have been recognized. More than 30 assessment tools using CRFs have been developed, some predicting fracture risk and others low BMD alone. Recent systematic reviews have reported that many tools have not been validated against fracture incidence, and that the complexity of tools and the number of CRFs included do not ensure best performance with poor assessment of (internal or comparative) validity. Internationally, FRAX® is the most commonly recommended tool, in addition to QFracture in the UK, The Canadian Association of Radiologists and Osteoporosis Canada (CAROC) tool in Canada and Garvan in Australia. All tools estimate standard 10-year risk of major osteoporotic and 10-year risk of hip fracture: FRAX® is able to estimate fracture risk either with or without BMD, but CAROC and Garvan both require BMD and QFracture does not. The best evidence for the utility of these tools is in case finding but there may be future prospects for the use of 10-year fracture risk as a common currency with reference to the benefits of treatment, whether pharmacological or lifestyle. The use of this metric is important in supporting health economic analyses. However, further calibration studies will be needed to prove that the tools are robust and that their estimates can be used in supporting treatment decisions, independent of BMD.

  20. Multilocus Genetic Risk Scores for Venous Thromboembolism Risk Assessment

    PubMed Central

    Soria, José Manuel; Morange, Pierre‐Emmanuel; Vila, Joan; Souto, Juan Carlos; Moyano, Manel; Trégouët, David‐Alexandre; Mateo, José; Saut, Noémi; Salas, Eduardo; Elosua, Roberto

    2014-01-01

    Background Genetics plays an important role in venous thromboembolism (VTE). Factor V Leiden (FVL or rs6025) and prothrombin gene G20210A (PT or rs1799963) are the genetic variants currently tested for VTE risk assessment. We hypothesized that primary VTE risk assessment can be improved by using genetic risk scores with more genetic markers than just FVL‐rs6025 and prothrombin gene PT‐rs1799963. To this end, we have designed a new genetic risk score called Thrombo inCode (TiC). Methods and Results TiC was evaluated in terms of discrimination (Δ of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) and reclassification (integrated discrimination improvement and net reclassification improvement). This evaluation was performed using 2 age‐ and sex‐matched case–control populations: SANTPAU (248 cases, 249 controls) and the Marseille Thrombosis Association study (MARTHA; 477 cases, 477 controls). TiC was compared with other literature‐based genetic risk scores. TiC including F5 rs6025/rs118203906/rs118203905, F2 rs1799963, F12 rs1801020, F13 rs5985, SERPINC1 rs121909548, and SERPINA10 rs2232698 plus the A1 blood group (rs8176719, rs7853989, rs8176743, rs8176750) improved the area under the curve compared with a model based only on F5‐rs6025 and F2‐rs1799963 in SANTPAU (0.677 versus 0.575, P<0.001) and MARTHA (0.605 versus 0.576, P=0.008). TiC showed good integrated discrimination improvement of 5.49 (P<0.001) for SANTPAU and 0.96 (P=0.045) for MARTHA. Among the genetic risk scores evaluated, the proportion of VTE risk variance explained by TiC was the highest. Conclusions We conclude that TiC greatly improves prediction of VTE risk compared with other genetic risk scores. TiC should improve prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of VTE. PMID:25341889

  1. Behavioral toxicology, risk assessment, and chlorinated hydrocarbons

    SciTech Connect

    Evangelista de Duffard, A.M.; Duffard, R.

    1996-04-01

    Behavioral end points are being used with greater frequency in neurotoxicology to detect and characterize the adverse effects of chemicals on the nervous system. Behavioral measures are particularly important for neurotoxicity risk assessment since many known neurotoxicants do not result in neuropathology. The chlorinated hydrocarbon class consists of a wide variety of chemicals including polychlorinated biphenyls, clioquinol, trichloroethylene, hexachlorophene, organochlorine insecticides (DDT, dicofol, chlordecone, dieldrin, and lindane), and phenoxyherbicides. Each of these chemicals has effects on motor, sensory, or cognitive function that are detectable using functional measures such as behavior. Furthermore, there is evidence that if exposure occurs during critical periods of development, many of the chlorinated hydrocarbons are developmental neurotoxicants. Developmental neurotoxicity is frequently expressed as alterations in motor function or cognitive abilities or charges in the ontogeny of sensorimotor reflexes. Neurotoxicity risk assessment should include assessments of the full range of possible neurotoxicological effects, including both structural and functional indicators of neurotoxicity. 121 refs., 1 tab.

  2. Behavioral toxicology, risk assessment, and chlorinated hydrocarbons.

    PubMed Central

    Evangelista de Duffard, A M; Duffard, R

    1996-01-01

    Behavioral end points are being used with greater frequency in neurotoxicology to detect and characterize the adverse effects of chemicals on the nervous system. Behavioral measures are particularly important for neurotoxicity risk assessment since many known neurotoxicants do not result in neuropathology. The chlorinated hydrocarbon class consists of a wide variety of chemicals including polychlorinated biphenyls, clioquinol, trichloroethylene, hexachlorophene, organochlorine insecticides (DDT, dicofol, chlordecone,dieldrin, and lindane), and phenoxyherbicides. Each of these chemicals has effects on motor, sensory, or cognitive function that are detectable using functional measures such as behavior. Furthermore, there is evidence that if exposure occurs during critical periods of development, many of the chlorinated hydrocarbons are developmental neurotoxicants. Developmental neurotoxicity is frequently expressed as alterations in motor function or cognitive abilities or changes in the ontogeny of sensorimotor reflexes. Neurotoxicity risk assessment should include assessments of the full range of possible neurotoxicological effects, including both structural and functional indicators of neurotoxicity. PMID:9182042

  3. Opioid risk assessment in palliative medicine.

    PubMed

    Dale, Rebecca; Edwards, Jeremy; Ballantyne, Jane

    2016-03-01

    Pain management with opioids is an integral part of palliative medicine. As the doses and durations of opioid therapy increase, the inherent risks of opioid therapy rise. Although opioids are effective analgesics, they bring with them complex medical and psychological side effects. Aberrant behavior is dangerous and can be difficult to identify as it results in a splitting in the goals of treatment between the patient and providers. One effective strategy in preventing that situation is through the early identification of at-risk patients. There are several tools that can help identify patients at higher risk of addiction and aberrant behaviors during opioid therapy. Structured use of these tools in conjunction with the clinic exam, regular follow-up visits, and lab testing can further reduce patient risk and improve success in opioid therapy. This article will review the background behind a structured strategy for opioid risk assessment using the Opioid Risk Tool, SOAPP-R, and DIRE tools. In addition, example aberrant behaviors and follow-up strategies will be reviewed. It will be demonstrated that careful screening and follow-up allow risk factors to be recognized and addressed early. PMID:27058865

  4. Silent Aircraft Initiative Concept Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nickol, Craig L.

    2008-01-01

    A risk assessment of the Silent Aircraft Initiative's SAX-40 concept design for extremely low noise has been performed. A NASA team developed a list of 27 risk items, and evaluated the level of risk for each item in terms of the likelihood that the risk would occur and the consequences of the occurrence. The following risk items were identified as high risk, meaning that the combination of likelihood and consequence put them into the top one-fourth of the risk matrix: structures and weight prediction; boundary-layer ingestion (BLI) and inlet design; variable-area exhaust and thrust vectoring; displaced-threshold and continuous descent approach (CDA) operational concepts; cost; human factors; and overall noise performance. Several advanced-technology baseline concepts were created to serve as a basis for comparison to the SAX-40 concept. These comparisons indicate that the SAX-40 would have significantly greater research, development, test, and engineering (RDT&E) and production costs than a conventional aircraft with similar technology levels. Therefore, the cost of obtaining the extremely low noise capability that has been estimated for the SAX-40 is significant. The SAX-40 concept design proved successful in focusing attention toward low noise technologies and in raising public awareness of the issue.

  5. A toolbox for rockfall Quantitative Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Agliardi, F.; Mavrouli, O.; Schubert, M.; Corominas, J.; Crosta, G. B.; Faber, M. H.; Frattini, P.; Narasimhan, H.

    2012-04-01

    Rockfall Quantitative Risk Analysis for mitigation design and implementation requires evaluating the probability of rockfall events, the probability and intensity of impacts on structures (elements at risk and countermeasures), their vulnerability, and the related expected costs for different scenarios. A sound theoretical framework has been developed during the last years both for spatially-distributed and local (i.e. single element at risk) analyses. Nevertheless, the practical application of existing methodologies remains challenging, due to difficulties in the collection of required data and to the lack of simple, dedicated analysis tools. In order to fill this gap, specific tools have been developed in the form of Excel spreadsheets, in the framework of Safeland EU project. These tools can be used by stakeholders, practitioners and other interested parties for the quantitative calculation of rock fall risk through its key components (probabilities, vulnerability, loss), using combinations of deterministic and probabilistic approaches. Three tools have been developed, namely: QuRAR (by UNIMIB), VulBlock (by UPC), and RiskNow-Falling Rocks (by ETH Zurich). QuRAR implements a spatially distributed, quantitative assessment methodology of rockfall risk for individual buildings or structures in a multi-building context (urban area). Risk is calculated in terms of expected annual cost, through the evaluation of rockfall event probability, propagation and impact probability (by 3D numerical modelling of rockfall trajectories), and empirical vulnerability for different risk protection scenarios. Vulblock allows a detailed, analytical calculation of the vulnerability of reinforced concrete frame buildings to rockfalls and related fragility curves, both as functions of block velocity and the size. The calculated vulnerability can be integrated in other methodologies/procedures based on the risk equation, by incorporating the uncertainty of the impact location of the rock

  6. Microbiological risk assessment in developing countries.

    PubMed

    Cahill, Sarah M; Jouve, Jean-Louis R

    2004-09-01

    Microbiological risk assessment (MRA) has been evolving at the national and international levels as a systematic and objective approach for evaluating information pertaining to microbiological hazards in foods and the risks they pose. This process has been catalyzed by international food trade requirements to base sanitary measures on sound scientific evidence and appropriate risk assessments. All countries, including developing countries, need to understand and use MRA. MRA is resource intensive, as has been demonstrated by some of the the assessments undertaken in industrialized countries. However, when used in the appropriate circumstances MRA offers many benefits. The process of undertaking MRA improves the understanding of key issues, enables an objective evaluation of risk management options, and provides a scientific justification for actions. Although the gap between developing countries and some industrialized countries is quite extensive with regard to MRA, many developing countries recognize the need to at least understand and move toward using MRA. This process requires development of infrastructure and enhancement of scientific and technical expertise while making optimal use of limited resources. International organizations, such as the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, are in a position to provide countries with guidance, training, information resources, and technical assistance to develop and/or strengthen food safety infrastructure. Enhanced cooperation and collaboration at all levels are needed for such efforts to be successful and to ensure that MRA, as a food safety tool, is available to all countries. PMID:15453597

  7. Sulfate but Not Thiosulfate Reduces Calculated and Measured Urinary Ionized Calcium and Supersaturation: Implications for the Treatment of Calcium Renal Stones

    PubMed Central

    Rodgers, Allen; Gauvin, Daniel; Edeh, Samuel; Allie-Hamdulay, Shameez; Jackson, Graham; Lieske, John C.

    2014-01-01

    Background Urinary sulfate (SO42−) and thiosulfate (S2O32−) can potentially bind with calcium and decrease kidney stone risk. We modeled the effects of these species on the concentration of ionized calcium (iCa) and on supersaturation (SS) of calcium oxalate (CaOx) and calcium phosphate (CaP), and measured their in vitro effects on iCa and the upper limit of stability (ULM) of these salts. Methods Urine data from 4 different types of stone patients were obtained from the Mayo Nephrology Clinic (Model 1). A second data set was obtained from healthy controls and hypercalciuric stone formers in the literature who had been treated with sodium thiosulfate (STS) (Model 2). The Joint Expert Speciation System (JESS) was used to calculate iCa and SS. In Model 1, these parameters were calculated as a function of sulfate and thiosulfate concentrations. In Model 2, data from pre- and post STS urines were analyzed. ULM and iCa were determined in human urine as a function of sulfate and thiosulfate concentrations. Results Calculated iCa and SS values for all calcium salts decreased with increasing sulfate concentration. Thiosulfate had no effect on these parameters. In Model 2, calculated iCa and CaOx SS increased after STS treatment, but CaP SS decreased, perhaps due to a decrease in pH after STS treatment. In confirmatory in vitro experiments supplemental sulfate, but not thiosulfate, significantly increased the calcium needed to achieve the ULM of CaP and tended to increase the oxalate needed to reach the ULM of CaOx. Sulfate also significantly decreased iCa in human urine, while thiosulfate had no effect. Conclusion Increasing urinary sulfate could theoretically reduce CaOx and CaP stone risk. Although STS may reduce CaP stone risk by decreasing urinary pH, it might also paradoxically increase iCa and CaOx SS. As such, STS may not be a viable treatment option for stone disease. PMID:25061988

  8. Clinical Risk Assessment in Intensive Care Unit

    PubMed Central

    Asefzadeh, Saeed; Yarmohammadian, Mohammad H.; Nikpey, Ahmad; Atighechian, Golrokh

    2013-01-01

    Background: Clinical risk management focuses on improving the quality and safety of health care services by identifying the circumstances and opportunities that put patients at risk of harm and acting to prevent or control those risks. The goal of this study is to identify and assess the failure modes in the ICU of Qazvin's Social Security Hospital (Razi Hospital) through Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA). Methods: This was a qualitative-quantitative research by Focus Discussion Group (FDG) performed in Qazvin Province, Iran during 2011. The study population included all individuals and owners who are familiar with the process in ICU. Sampling method was purposeful and the FDG group members were selected by the researcher. The research instrument was standard worksheet that has been used by several researchers. Data was analyzed by FMEA technique. Results: Forty eight clinical errors and failure modes identified, results showed that the highest risk probability number (RPN) was in respiratory care “Ventilator's alarm malfunction (no alarm)” with the score 288, and the lowest was in gastrointestinal “not washing the NG-Tube” with the score 8. Conclusions: Many of the identified errors can be prevented by group members. Clinical risk assessment and management is the key to delivery of effective health care. PMID:23930171

  9. 2009 Space Shuttle Probabilistic Risk Assessment Overview

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hamlin, Teri L.; Canga, Michael A.; Boyer, Roger L.; Thigpen, Eric B.

    2010-01-01

    Loss of a Space Shuttle during flight has severe consequences, including loss of a significant national asset; loss of national confidence and pride; and, most importantly, loss of human life. The Shuttle Probabilistic Risk Assessment (SPRA) is used to identify risk contributors and their significance; thus, assisting management in determining how to reduce risk. In 2006, an overview of the SPRA Iteration 2.1 was presented at PSAM 8 [1]. Like all successful PRAs, the SPRA is a living PRA and has undergone revisions since PSAM 8. The latest revision to the SPRA is Iteration 3. 1, and it will not be the last as the Shuttle program progresses and more is learned. This paper discusses the SPRA scope, overall methodology, and results, as well as provides risk insights. The scope, assumptions, uncertainties, and limitations of this assessment provide risk-informed perspective to aid management s decision-making process. In addition, this paper compares the Iteration 3.1 analysis and results to the Iteration 2.1 analysis and results presented at PSAM 8.

  10. Trends in quantitative cancer risk assessment.

    PubMed Central

    Morris, S C

    1991-01-01

    Quantitative cancer risk assessment is a dynamic field, more closely coupled to rapidly advancing biomedical research than ever before. Six areas of change and growth are identified: expansion from models of cancer initiation to a more complete picture of the total carcinogenic process; trend from curve-fitting to biologically based models; movement from upperbound estimates to best estimates, with a more complete treatment of uncertainty; increased consideration of the role of susceptibility; growing development of expert systems and decision support systems; and emerging importance of risk communication. PMID:2050076

  11. Code System for Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment.

    2001-03-27

    Version 00 SEISIM1 calculates the probabilities of seismically induced failures for components and systems and propagates these calculations to determine the probability of accident sequences and the resulting total risk, which is quantified as an expected value of radiation release and exposure from a given nuclear power plant. SEISIM1 was developed as a fundamental tool for the systems analysis portion of the NRC's Seismic Safety Margins Research Program (SSMRP). The SSMRP provides a complete, self-containedmore » methodology to assess and quantify the risk to nuclear power plants from seismic events and seismically induced failures.« less

  12. Towards a nanospecific approach for risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Dekkers, Susan; Oomen, Agnes G; Bleeker, Eric A J; Vandebriel, Rob J; Micheletti, Christian; Cabellos, Joan; Janer, Gemma; Fuentes, Natalia; Vázquez-Campos, Socorro; Borges, Teresa; Silva, Maria João; Prina-Mello, Adriele; Movia, Dania; Nesslany, Fabrice; Ribeiro, Ana R; Leite, Paulo Emílio; Groenewold, Monique; Cassee, Flemming R; Sips, Adrienne J A M; Dijkzeul, Aart; van Teunenbroek, Tom; Wijnhoven, Susan W P

    2016-10-01

    In the current paper, a new strategy for risk assessment of nanomaterials is described, which builds upon previous project outcomes and is developed within the FP7 NANoREG project. NANoREG has the aim to develop, for the long term, new testing strategies adapted to a high number of nanomaterials where many factors can affect their environmental and health impact. In the proposed risk assessment strategy, approaches for (Quantitative) Structure Activity Relationships ((Q)SARs), grouping and read-across are integrated and expanded to guide the user how to prioritise those nanomaterial applications that may lead to high risks for human health. Furthermore, those aspects of exposure, kinetics and hazard assessment that are most likely to be influenced by the nanospecific properties of the material under assessment are identified. These aspects are summarised in six elements, which play a key role in the strategy: exposure potential, dissolution, nanomaterial transformation, accumulation, genotoxicity and immunotoxicity. With the current approach it is possible to identify those situations where the use of nanospecific grouping, read-across and (Q)SAR tools is likely to become feasible in the future, and to point towards the generation of the type of data that is needed for scientific justification, which may lead to regulatory acceptance of nanospecific applications of these tools.

  13. Towards a nanospecific approach for risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Dekkers, Susan; Oomen, Agnes G; Bleeker, Eric A J; Vandebriel, Rob J; Micheletti, Christian; Cabellos, Joan; Janer, Gemma; Fuentes, Natalia; Vázquez-Campos, Socorro; Borges, Teresa; Silva, Maria João; Prina-Mello, Adriele; Movia, Dania; Nesslany, Fabrice; Ribeiro, Ana R; Leite, Paulo Emílio; Groenewold, Monique; Cassee, Flemming R; Sips, Adrienne J A M; Dijkzeul, Aart; van Teunenbroek, Tom; Wijnhoven, Susan W P

    2016-10-01

    In the current paper, a new strategy for risk assessment of nanomaterials is described, which builds upon previous project outcomes and is developed within the FP7 NANoREG project. NANoREG has the aim to develop, for the long term, new testing strategies adapted to a high number of nanomaterials where many factors can affect their environmental and health impact. In the proposed risk assessment strategy, approaches for (Quantitative) Structure Activity Relationships ((Q)SARs), grouping and read-across are integrated and expanded to guide the user how to prioritise those nanomaterial applications that may lead to high risks for human health. Furthermore, those aspects of exposure, kinetics and hazard assessment that are most likely to be influenced by the nanospecific properties of the material under assessment are identified. These aspects are summarised in six elements, which play a key role in the strategy: exposure potential, dissolution, nanomaterial transformation, accumulation, genotoxicity and immunotoxicity. With the current approach it is possible to identify those situations where the use of nanospecific grouping, read-across and (Q)SAR tools is likely to become feasible in the future, and to point towards the generation of the type of data that is needed for scientific justification, which may lead to regulatory acceptance of nanospecific applications of these tools. PMID:27255696

  14. Improving environmental risk assessment of human pharmaceuticals.

    PubMed

    Ågerstrand, Marlene; Berg, Cecilia; Björlenius, Berndt; Breitholtz, Magnus; Brunström, Björn; Fick, Jerker; Gunnarsson, Lina; Larsson, D G Joakim; Sumpter, John P; Tysklind, Mats; Rudén, Christina

    2015-05-01

    This paper presents 10 recommendations for improving the European Medicines Agency's guidance for environmental risk assessment of human pharmaceutical products. The recommendations are based on up-to-date, available science in combination with experiences from other chemical frameworks such as the REACH-legislation for industrial chemicals. The recommendations concern: expanding the scope of the current guideline; requirements to assess the risk for development of antibiotic resistance; jointly performed assessments; refinement of the test proposal; mixture toxicity assessments on active pharmaceutical ingredients with similar modes of action; use of all available ecotoxicity studies; mandatory reviews; increased transparency; inclusion of emission data from production; and a risk management option. We believe that implementation of our recommendations would strengthen the protection of the environment and be beneficial to society. Legislation and guidance documents need to be updated at regular intervals in order to incorporate new knowledge from the scientific community. This is particularly important for regulatory documents concerning pharmaceuticals in the environment since this is a research field that has been growing substantially in the last decades.

  15. Asteroid Risk Assessment: A Probabilistic Approach.

    PubMed

    Reinhardt, Jason C; Chen, Xi; Liu, Wenhao; Manchev, Petar; Paté-Cornell, M Elisabeth

    2016-02-01

    Following the 2013 Chelyabinsk event, the risks posed by asteroids attracted renewed interest, from both the scientific and policy-making communities. It reminded the world that impacts from near-Earth objects (NEOs), while rare, have the potential to cause great damage to cities and populations. Point estimates of the risk (such as mean numbers of casualties) have been proposed, but because of the low-probability, high-consequence nature of asteroid impacts, these averages provide limited actionable information. While more work is needed to further refine its input distributions (e.g., NEO diameters), the probabilistic model presented in this article allows a more complete evaluation of the risk of NEO impacts because the results are distributions that cover the range of potential casualties. This model is based on a modularized simulation that uses probabilistic inputs to estimate probabilistic risk metrics, including those of rare asteroid impacts. Illustrative results of this analysis are presented for a period of 100 years. As part of this demonstration, we assess the effectiveness of civil defense measures in mitigating the risk of human casualties. We find that they are likely to be beneficial but not a panacea. We also compute the probability-but not the consequences-of an impact with global effects ("cataclysm"). We conclude that there is a continued need for NEO observation, and for analyses of the feasibility and risk-reduction effectiveness of space missions designed to deflect or destroy asteroids that threaten the Earth.

  16. Asteroid Risk Assessment: A Probabilistic Approach.

    PubMed

    Reinhardt, Jason C; Chen, Xi; Liu, Wenhao; Manchev, Petar; Paté-Cornell, M Elisabeth

    2016-02-01

    Following the 2013 Chelyabinsk event, the risks posed by asteroids attracted renewed interest, from both the scientific and policy-making communities. It reminded the world that impacts from near-Earth objects (NEOs), while rare, have the potential to cause great damage to cities and populations. Point estimates of the risk (such as mean numbers of casualties) have been proposed, but because of the low-probability, high-consequence nature of asteroid impacts, these averages provide limited actionable information. While more work is needed to further refine its input distributions (e.g., NEO diameters), the probabilistic model presented in this article allows a more complete evaluation of the risk of NEO impacts because the results are distributions that cover the range of potential casualties. This model is based on a modularized simulation that uses probabilistic inputs to estimate probabilistic risk metrics, including those of rare asteroid impacts. Illustrative results of this analysis are presented for a period of 100 years. As part of this demonstration, we assess the effectiveness of civil defense measures in mitigating the risk of human casualties. We find that they are likely to be beneficial but not a panacea. We also compute the probability-but not the consequences-of an impact with global effects ("cataclysm"). We conclude that there is a continued need for NEO observation, and for analyses of the feasibility and risk-reduction effectiveness of space missions designed to deflect or destroy asteroids that threaten the Earth. PMID:26215051

  17. Can Systematic Reviews Inform GMO Risk Assessment and Risk Management?

    PubMed

    Kohl, Christian; Frampton, Geoff; Sweet, Jeremy; Spök, Armin; Haddaway, Neal Robert; Wilhelm, Ralf; Unger, Stefan; Schiemann, Joachim

    2015-01-01

    Systematic reviews represent powerful tools to identify, collect, synthesize, and evaluate primary research data on specific research questions in a highly standardized and reproducible manner. They enable the defensible synthesis of outcomes by increasing precision and minimizing bias whilst ensuring transparency of the methods used. This makes them especially valuable to inform evidence-based risk analysis and decision making in various topics and research disciplines. Although seen as a "gold standard" for synthesizing primary research data, systematic reviews are not without limitations as they are often cost, labor and time intensive and the utility of synthesis outcomes depends upon the availability of sufficient and robust primary research data. In this paper, we (1) consider the added value systematic reviews could provide when synthesizing primary research data on genetically modified organisms (GMO) and (2) critically assess the adequacy and feasibility of systematic review for collating and analyzing data on potential impacts of GMOs in order to better inform specific steps within GMO risk assessment and risk management. The regulatory framework of the EU is used as an example, although the issues we discuss are likely to be more widely applicable. PMID:26322307

  18. Can Systematic Reviews Inform GMO Risk Assessment and Risk Management?

    PubMed Central

    Kohl, Christian; Frampton, Geoff; Sweet, Jeremy; Spök, Armin; Haddaway, Neal Robert; Wilhelm, Ralf; Unger, Stefan; Schiemann, Joachim

    2015-01-01

    Systematic reviews represent powerful tools to identify, collect, synthesize, and evaluate primary research data on specific research questions in a highly standardized and reproducible manner. They enable the defensible synthesis of outcomes by increasing precision and minimizing bias whilst ensuring transparency of the methods used. This makes them especially valuable to inform evidence-based risk analysis and decision making in various topics and research disciplines. Although seen as a “gold standard” for synthesizing primary research data, systematic reviews are not without limitations as they are often cost, labor and time intensive and the utility of synthesis outcomes depends upon the availability of sufficient and robust primary research data. In this paper, we (1) consider the added value systematic reviews could provide when synthesizing primary research data on genetically modified organisms (GMO) and (2) critically assess the adequacy and feasibility of systematic review for collating and analyzing data on potential impacts of GMOs in order to better inform specific steps within GMO risk assessment and risk management. The regulatory framework of the EU is used as an example, although the issues we discuss are likely to be more widely applicable. PMID:26322307

  19. Can Systematic Reviews Inform GMO Risk Assessment and Risk Management?

    PubMed

    Kohl, Christian; Frampton, Geoff; Sweet, Jeremy; Spök, Armin; Haddaway, Neal Robert; Wilhelm, Ralf; Unger, Stefan; Schiemann, Joachim

    2015-01-01

    Systematic reviews represent powerful tools to identify, collect, synthesize, and evaluate primary research data on specific research questions in a highly standardized and reproducible manner. They enable the defensible synthesis of outcomes by increasing precision and minimizing bias whilst ensuring transparency of the methods used. This makes them especially valuable to inform evidence-based risk analysis and decision making in various topics and research disciplines. Although seen as a "gold standard" for synthesizing primary research data, systematic reviews are not without limitations as they are often cost, labor and time intensive and the utility of synthesis outcomes depends upon the availability of sufficient and robust primary research data. In this paper, we (1) consider the added value systematic reviews could provide when synthesizing primary research data on genetically modified organisms (GMO) and (2) critically assess the adequacy and feasibility of systematic review for collating and analyzing data on potential impacts of GMOs in order to better inform specific steps within GMO risk assessment and risk management. The regulatory framework of the EU is used as an example, although the issues we discuss are likely to be more widely applicable.

  20. Risk and revisionism in arsenic cancer risk assessment.

    PubMed Central

    Mushak, P; Crocetti, A F

    1995-01-01

    Oral exposures of nonoccupational populations to environmental inorganic arsenic are associated with skin and internal cancers as well as various noncarcinogenic effects. Cancer risk assessments have been based largely on epidemiological studies of a large population exposed to inorganic arsenic in well water in Taiwan. Criticisms and skepticism of the use of the Taiwanese data for estimating arsenic cancer risks outside of Taiwan, including potential use by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency for regulatory purposes, have been expressed on various grounds. The nature and extent of such criticisms have sharpened with recent findings in the exposed Taiwanese of increased incidence of internal cancers (bladder, kidney, liver, and lung), in addition to already-observed skin cancer, coupled with a good likelihood that these findings will produce more stringent arsenic regulation in the United States and elsewhere. These criticisms collectively posit a revisionist view that: 1) cancer incidence among the Taiwanese was amplified by a number of host and environmental factors not applicable elsewhere, 2) the cancer dose-response curve may not be linear at the lower exposures elsewhere, and 3) there is a toxicokinetic and metabolic threshold to cancer risk that was exceeded by the Taiwanese. However, a number of the arguments against wide use of the Taiwanese data are flawed and subject to challenge. We explore some of these arguments and their critical evaluation, particularly as they concern certain exposure, metabolic, and nutritional determinants of the cancer risk of inorganic arsenic in the Taiwanese. PMID:7588479

  1. [Risk assessment of genetically modified organisms].

    PubMed

    Costa, Thadeu Estevam Moreira Maramaldo; Dias, Aline Peçanha Muzy; Scheidegger, Erica Miranda Damasio; Marin, Victor Augustus

    2011-01-01

    Since the commercial approve in 1996, the global area of transgenic crops has raised more than 50 times. In the last two decades, governments have been planning strategies and protocols for safety assessment of food and feed genetically modified (GM). Evaluation of food safety should be taken on a case-by-case analysis depending on the specific traits of the modified crops and the changes introduced by the genetic modification, using for this the concept of substantial equivalence. This work presents approaches for the risk assessment of GM food, as well as some problems related with the genetic construction or even with the expression of the inserted gene.

  2. Supplemental Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessment - Hydrotreater

    SciTech Connect

    Lowry, Peter P.; Wagner, Katie A.

    2015-04-01

    A supplemental hazard analysis was conducted and quantitative risk assessment performed in response to an independent review comment received by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) from the U.S. Department of Energy Pacific Northwest Field Office (PNSO) against the Hydrotreater/Distillation Column Hazard Analysis Report issued in April 2013. The supplemental analysis used the hazardous conditions documented by the previous April 2013 report as a basis. The conditions were screened and grouped for the purpose of identifying whether additional prudent, practical hazard controls could be identified, using a quantitative risk evaluation to assess the adequacy of the controls and establish a lower level of concern for the likelihood of potential serious accidents. Calculations were performed to support conclusions where necessary.

  3. Risk assessment meta tool LDRD final report.

    SciTech Connect

    Bouchard, Ann Marie; Osbourn, Gordon Cecil

    2006-12-01

    The goal of this project was to develop a risk analysis meta tool--a tool that enables security analysts both to combine and analyze data from multiple other risk assessment tools on demand. Our approach was based on the innovative self-assembling software technology under development by the project team. This technology provides a mechanism for the user to specify his intentions at a very high level (e.g., equations or English-like text), and then the code self-assembles itself, taking care of the implementation details. The first version of the meta tool focused specifically in importing and analyzing data from Joint Conflict and Tactical Simulation (JCATS) force-on-force simulation. We discuss the problem, our approach, technical risk, and accomplishments on this project, and outline next steps to be addressed with follow-on funding.

  4. [Methods of risk assessment and their validation].

    PubMed

    Baracco, Alessandro

    2014-01-01

    The review of the literature data shows several methods for the the risks assessment of biomnechanical overload of the musculoskeletal system in activities with repetitive strain of the upper limbs and manual material handling. The application of these methods should allow the quantification ofriskfor the working population, the identification of the preventive measures to reduce the risk and their effectiveness and thle design of a specific health surveillance scheme. In this paper we analyze the factors which must be taken into account in Occupational Medicine to implement a process of validation of these methods. In conclusion we believe it will necessary in the future the availability of new methods able to analyze and reduce the risk already in the design phase of the production process. PMID:25558718

  5. Probabilistic risk assessment of disassembly procedures

    SciTech Connect

    O`Brien, D.A.; Bement, T.R.; Letellier, B.C.

    1993-11-01

    The purpose of this report is to describe the use of Probabilistic Risk (Safety) Assessment (PRA or PSA) at a Department of Energy (DOE) facility. PRA is a methodology for (i) identifying combinations of events that, if they occur, lead to accidents (ii) estimating the frequency of occurrence of each combination of events and (iii) estimating the consequences of each accident. Specifically the study focused on evaluating the risks associated with dissembling a hazardous assembly. The PRA for the operation included a detailed evaluation only for those potential accident sequences which could lead to significant off-site consequences and affect public health. The overall purpose of this study was to investigate the feasibility of establishing a risk-consequence goal for DOE operations.

  6. Degraded Environments Alter Prey Risk Assessment

    PubMed Central

    Lönnstedt, Oona M; McCormick, Mark I; Chivers, Douglas P

    2013-01-01

    Elevated water temperatures, a decrease in ocean pH, and an increasing prevalence of severe storms have lead to bleaching and death of the hard corals that underpin coral reef ecosystems. As coral cover declines, fish diversity and abundance declines. How degradation of coral reefs affects behavior of reef inhabitants is unknown. Here, we demonstrate that risk assessment behaviors of prey are severely affected by coral degradation. Juvenile damselfish were exposed to visual and olfactory indicators of predation risk in healthy live, thermally bleached, and dead coral in a series of laboratory and field experiments. While fish still responded to visual cues in all habitats, they did not respond to olfactory indicators of risk in dead coral habitats, likely as a result of alteration or degradation of chemical cues. These cues are critical for learning and avoiding predators, and a failure to respond can have dramatic repercussions for survival and recruitment. PMID:23403754

  7. Chernobyl accident: A comprehensive risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Vargo, G.J.; Poyarkov, V.; Baryakhtar, V.; Kukhar, V.; Los, I.

    1999-11-01

    The authors, all of whom are Ukrainian and Russian scientists involved with Chernobyl nuclear power plant since the April 1986 accident, present a comprehensive review of the accident. In addition, they present a risk assessment of the remains of the destroyed reactor and its surrounding shelter, Chernobyl radioactive waste storage and disposal sites, and environmental contamination in the region. The authors explore such questions as the risks posed by a collapse of the shelter, radionuclide migration from storage and disposal facilities in the exclusion zone, and transfer from soil to vegetation and its potential regional impact. The answers to these questions provide a scientific basis for the development of countermeasures against the Chernobyl accident in particular and the mitigation of environmental radioactive contamination in general. They also provide an important basis for understanding the human health and ecological risks posed by the accident.

  8. Chernobyl accident: A comprehensive risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Vargo, G.J.; Poyarkov, V.; Baryakhtar, V.; Kukhar, V.; Los, I.

    1999-01-01

    The authors, all of whom are Ukrainian and Russian scientists involved with Chernobyl nuclear power plant since the April 1986 accident, present a comprehensive review of the accident. In addition, they present a risk assessment of the remains of the destroyed reactor and its surrounding shelter, Chernobyl radioactive waste storage and disposal sites, and environmental contamination in the region. The authors explore such questions as the risks posed by a collapse of the shelter, radionuclide migration from storage and disposal facilities in the exclusion zone, and transfer from soil to vegetation and its potential regional impact. The answers to these questions provide a scientific basis for the development of countermeasures against the Chernobyl accident in particular and the mitigation of environmental radioactive contamination in general. They also provide an important basis for understanding the human health and ecological risks posed by the accident.

  9. Obsolescence Risk Assessment Process Best Practice

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Romero Rojo, F. J.; Roy, R.; Kelly, S.

    2012-05-01

    A component becomes obsolete when it is no longer available from the original manufacturer to the original specification. In long-lifecycle projects, obsolescence has become a major problem as it prevents the maintenance of the system. This is the reason why obsolescence management is now an essential part of the product support activities in sectors such as defence, aerospace, nuclear and railway; where systems need to be supported for several decades. The obsolescence risk assessment for the bill of materials (BoM) is a paramount activity in order to manage obsolescence proactively and cost-effectively. This is the reason why it was necessary to undertake a benchmarking study to develop best practice in this process. A total of 22 obsolescence experts from 13 different organisations/projects from across UK and USA have participated in this study. Their current processes and experience have been taken into account in the development of the best practice process for obsolescence risk assessment. The key factors that have to be analysed in the risk assessment process for each component in the BoM are: number of manufacturers, years to end of life, stock available, consumption rate and operational impact criticality. For the very high risk components, a more detailed analysis is required to inform the decisions regarding the most suitable mitigation strategies. On the contrary, for the low risk components, a fully proactive approach is neither appropriate nor cost effective. Therefore, it is advised for these components that obsolescence issues are dealt with reactively. This process has been validated using case studies with several experts from industry and is currently being implemented by the UK Ministry of Defence as technical guidance within the JSP 886 Volume 7 Part 8.13 standards.

  10. Risk assessment of GM plants: avoiding gridlock?

    PubMed

    Wilkinson, Mike J; Sweet, Jeremy; Poppy, Guy M

    2003-05-01

    Cultivation of genetically modified crops is presently based largely on four crops containing few transgenes and grown in four countries. This will soon change and pose new challenges for risk assessment. A more structured approach that is as generic as possible is advocated to study consequences of gene flow. Hazards should be precisely defined and prioritized, with emphasis on quantifying elements of exposure. This requires coordinated effort between large, multidisciplinary research teams.

  11. Implementing caries risk assessment and clinical interventions.

    PubMed

    Young, Douglas A; Featherstone, John D B

    2010-07-01

    This article suggests a practical methodology to implement the scientific information presented in the earlier articles into clinical practice. The Caries Balance/Imbalance Model and a practical caries risk assessment procedure for patients aged 6 years through adult illustrate evidence-based treatment options. Neither the forms nor the clinical protocols are meant to imply that there is currently only one correct way that this can be achieved; they are used in this article only as examples.

  12. Natural-technological risk assessment and management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burova, Valentina; Frolova, Nina

    2016-04-01

    EM-DAT statistical data on human impact and economic damages in the 1st semester 2015 are the highest since 2011: 41% of disasters were floods, responsible for 39% of economic damage and 7% of events were earthquakes responsible for 59% of total death toll. This suggests that disaster risk assessment and management still need to be improved and stay the principle issue in national and international related programs. The paper investigates the risk assessment and management practice in the Russian Federation at different levels. The method is proposed to identify the territories characterized by integrated natural-technological hazard. The maps of the Russian Federation zoning according to the integrated natural-technological hazard level are presented, as well as the procedure of updating the integrated hazard level taking into account the activity of separate processes. Special attention is paid to data bases on past natural and technological processes consequences, which are used for verification of current hazard estimation. The examples of natural-technological risk zoning for the country and some regions territory are presented. Different output risk indexes: both social and economic, are estimated taking into account requirements of end-users. In order to increase the safety of population of the Russian Federation the trans-boundaries hazards are also taken into account.

  13. Ecological risk assessment benefits environmental management

    SciTech Connect

    Fairbrother, A.; Kapustka, L.A.; Williams, B.A.; Glicken, J.

    1994-12-31

    The ecological risk assessment process in its ideal form is an unbiased approach for assessing the probability of harm to the environment as a consequence of a given action. This information can then be combined with other societal values and biases in the management of such risks. However, as the process currently is understood, decision makers often are accused of manipulating information in order to generate decisions or achieve buy in from the public in support of a particular political agenda. A clear understanding of the nature of the risk management process can help define areas where information should be free from social or personal bias, and areas where values and judgments are critical. The authors do not propose to discuss the individual`s decision-making process, but rather to address the social process of risk communication and environmentally-related decision-making, identifying which parts of that process require bias-free, scientifically generated information about the consequences of various actions and which parts need an understanding of the social values which underlie the informed choices among those possible actions.

  14. Korean Risk Assessment Model for Breast Cancer Risk Prediction

    PubMed Central

    Park, Boyoung; Ma, Seung Hyun; Shin, Aesun; Chang, Myung-Chul; Choi, Ji-Yeob; Kim, Sungwan; Han, Wonshik; Noh, Dong-Young; Ahn, Sei-Hyun; Kang, Daehee; Yoo, Keun-Young; Park, Sue K.

    2013-01-01

    Purpose We evaluated the performance of the Gail model for a Korean population and developed a Korean breast cancer risk assessment tool (KoBCRAT) based upon equations developed for the Gail model for predicting breast cancer risk. Methods Using 3,789 sets of cases and controls, risk factors for breast cancer among Koreans were identified. Individual probabilities were projected using Gail's equations and Korean hazard data. We compared the 5-year and lifetime risk produced using the modified Gail model which applied Korean incidence and mortality data and the parameter estimators from the original Gail model with those produced using the KoBCRAT. We validated the KoBCRAT based on the expected/observed breast cancer incidence and area under the curve (AUC) using two Korean cohorts: the Korean Multicenter Cancer Cohort (KMCC) and National Cancer Center (NCC) cohort. Results The major risk factors under the age of 50 were family history, age at menarche, age at first full-term pregnancy, menopausal status, breastfeeding duration, oral contraceptive usage, and exercise, while those at and over the age of 50 were family history, age at menarche, age at menopause, pregnancy experience, body mass index, oral contraceptive usage, and exercise. The modified Gail model produced lower 5-year risk for the cases than for the controls (p = 0.017), while the KoBCRAT produced higher 5-year and lifetime risk for the cases than for the controls (p<0.001 and <0.001, respectively). The observed incidence of breast cancer in the two cohorts was similar to the expected incidence from the KoBCRAT (KMCC, p = 0.880; NCC, p = 0.878). The AUC using the KoBCRAT was 0.61 for the KMCC and 0.89 for the NCC cohort. Conclusions Our findings suggest that the KoBCRAT is a better tool for predicting the risk of breast cancer in Korean women, especially urban women. PMID:24204664

  15. Violence risk assessment as a medical intervention: ethical tensions

    PubMed Central

    Roychowdhury, Ashimesh; Adshead, Gwen

    2014-01-01

    Risk assessment differs from other medical interventions in that the welfare of the patient is not the immediate object of the intervention. However, improving the risk assessment process may reduce the chance of risk assessment itself being unjust. We explore the ethical arguments in relation to risk assessment as a medical intervention, drawing analogies, where applicable, with ethical arguments raised by general medical investigations. The article concludes by supporting the structured professional judgement approach as a method of risk assessment that is most consistent with the respect for principles of medical ethics. Recommendations are made for the future direction of risk assessment indicated by ethical theory. PMID:25237503

  16. Offshore blowouts, data for risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Holand, P.

    1995-12-31

    Blowouts are, besides gas leakages, the major contributor to the total risk for offshore installations. Therefore, the blowout risk is always included in Quantitative Risk Analyses (QRAs) of offshore installations in the Norwegian Sector of the North Sea. SINTEF Offshore Blowout Database has existed since 1984 (until 1990 it was called Marintek`s blowout database). In 1990 the responsibility of the database was transferred to SINTEF Safety and Reliability. Throughout these years the database has been used for assessing blowout risk associated to development and operation of fields offshore Norway. Six oil companies and two consultants are presently sponsoring the database. These companies are using the database when performing risk analyses. During the past three years the database has been subjected to a thorough quality improvement, both with respect to the user interface, and most important, regarding the blowout data included in the database. What is unique with this database, besides the high quality of blowout descriptions, is first that the blowout causes are categorized related to loss of primary and secondary barriers. Secondly that the user interface makes it possible to establish searches to withdraw information regarding any blowout type subjected for specific searches.

  17. Suicide risk assessment and suicide risk formulation: essential components of the therapeutic risk management model.

    PubMed

    Silverman, Morton M

    2014-09-01

    Suicide and other suicidal behaviors are often associated with psychiatric disorders and dysfunctions. Therefore, psychiatrists have significant opportunities to identify at-risk individuals and offer treatment to reduce that risk. Although a suicide risk assessment is a core competency requirement, many clinical psychiatrists lack the requisite training and skills to appropriately assess for suicide risk. Moreover, the standard of care requires psychiatrists to foresee the possibility that a patient might engage in suicidal behavior, hence to conduct a suicide risk formulation sufficient to guide triage and treatment planning. Based on data collected via a suicide risk assessment, a suicide risk formulation is a process whereby the psychiatrist forms a judgment about a patient's foreseeable risk of suicidal behavior in order to inform triage decisions, safety and treatment planning, and interventions to reduce risk. This paper addresses the components of this process in the context of the model for therapeutic risk management of the suicidal patient developed at the Veterans Integrated Service Network (VISN) 19 Mental Illness Research, Education and Clinical Center by Wortzel et al.

  18. Project Fox: Assessing Risks Posed By Asteroids

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reinhardt, J.; Chen, X.; Liu, W.; Manchev, P.; Paté-Cornell, M.

    2013-12-01

    In order to make decisions on how to invest limited research dollars on asteroid surveillance and mitigation options, an analytic understanding of the risks posed by impacts is necessary. Qualitative and quantitative studies have been performed to assess such risks, and some reasonable point estimates have been proposed. However, since consequential asteroid impacts tend to be rare events, point estimates and expected annual death rates do not adequately convey the heavy tail of the distribution, potentially leading to misguided resource allocations. We propose and develop a framework for new risk measures, including a distribution over the number of fatalities from asteroid impacts and the probability of a globally consequential impact. We implement a simulation of asteroid impacts using probabilistic inputs for impactor characteristics, and a Poisson process for asteroid arrivals over the next 100 years. Simulation results indicate that a significant portion of the risk to humans comes from asteroids in the 300-1000 meter diameter range; this is because asteroid impacts in this range can produce global effects, and are more frequent than those from asteroids greater than 1km in diameter. The relative importance of this size regime in overall asteroid impact risk is robust in simulation results, and we find the magnitude of risks is still sensitive to factors that contribute global effects from an asteroid impact. Initial results are provided on the sensitivity of impact risks to various mitigation measures, including 'civil defense' methods. These results underscore the need for next-generation survey missions, and can help provide the basis for setting future space telescope observation requirements.

  19. Water risk assessment for river basins in China based on WWF water risk assessment tools

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wei, N.; Qiu, Y.; Gan, H.; Niu, C.; Liu, J.; Gan, Y.; Zhou, N.

    2014-09-01

    Water resource problems, one of the most important environmental and socio-economic issues, have been a common concern worldwide in recent years. Water resource risks are attracting more and more attention from the international community and national governments. Given the current situations of water resources and the water environment, and the characteristics of water resources management and information statistics of China, this paper establishes an index system for water risk assessment in river basins of China based on the index system of water risk assessment proposed by the World Wide Fund For Nature (WWF) and German Investment and Development Co., Ltd (DEG). The new system is more suitable for Chinese national conditions and endorses the international assessment index. A variety of factors are considered to determine the critical values of classification for each index, and the indexes are graded by means of 5-grade and 5-score scales; the weights and calculation methods of some indexes are adjusted, with the remaining indexes adopting the method of WWF. The Weighted Comprehensive Index Summation Process is adopted to calculate the integrated assessment score of the river basin. The method is applied to the Haihe River basin in China. The assessment shows that the method can accurately reflect the water risk level of different river basins. Finally, the paper discusses the continuing problems in water risk assessment and points out the research required to provide a reference for further study in this field.

  20. Visual Impairment/Intracranial Pressure Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fogarty, Jennifer A.; Durham, T.; Otto, C.; Grounds, D.; Davis, J. R.

    2010-01-01

    Since 2006 there have been 6 reported cases of altered visual acuity and intracranial pressure (ICP) in long duration astronauts. In order to document this risk and develop an integrated approach to its mitigation, the NASA Space Life Sciences Directorate (SLSD) and Human Research Program (HRP) have chosen to use the Human System Risk Board (HSRB) and the risk management analysis tool (RMAT). The HSRB is the venue in which the stakeholders and customers discuss and vet the evidence and the RMAT is the tool that facilitates documentation and comparison of the evidence across mission profiles as well as identification of risk factors, and documentation of mitigation strategies. This process allows for information to be brought forward and dispositioned so that it may be properly incorporated into the RMAT and contribute to the design of the research and mitigation plans. The evidence thus far has resulted in the identification of a visual impairment/intracranial pressure (VIIP) project team, updating of both short and long duration medical requirements designed to assess visual acuity, and a research plan to characterize this issue further. In order to understand this issue more completely, a plan to develop an Accelerated Research Collaboration (ARC) has been approved by the HSRB. The ARC is a novel research model pioneered by the Myelin Repair Foundation. It is a patient centered research model that brings together researchers and clinicians, under the guidance of a scientific advisory panel, to collaborate and produce results much quickly than accomplished through traditional research models. The data and evidence from the updated medical requirements and the VIIP ARC will be reviewed at the HSRB on a regular basis. Each review package presented to the HSRB will include an assessment and recommendation with respect to continuation of research, countermeasure development, occupational surveillance modalities, selection criteria, etc. This process will determine the

  1. Asteroid Airbursts: Risk Assessment and Reduction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boslough, M.

    2015-12-01

    Airbursts are events in which small (meters to tens-of-meters in diameter) asteroids deposit most of their energy in the atmosphere with a total energy greater than small nuclear explosions (>0.1 kilotons of TNT). The airburst risk is higher than previous assessments for two reasons. First, they are more frequent than previously thought. The Tunguska-class (~40 meters) population estimate has doubled, and Chelyabinsk-class (~20 meters) has increased by a factor of 2.6. Second, asteroid airbursts are significantly more damaging than previously assumed. In most cases, they more efficiently couple energy to the surface than nuclear explosions of the same yield. Past Near-Earth Object (NEO) risk assessments concluded that the largest asteroids (> 1 km) dominated the hazard. Large NEOs represent only a tiny fraction of the population but the potential for global catastrophe means that the contribution from low-probability, high-consequence events is large. Nearly 90% of these objects, none of which is on a collision course, have been catalogued. This has reduced their assessed near-term statistical risk by more than an order of magnitude because completion is highest for the largest and most dangerous. The relative risk from small objects would therefore be increasing even if their absolute assessed risk were not. Uncertainty in the number of small NEOs remains large and can only be reduced by expanded surveys. One strategy would be to count small NEOs making close passes in statistically significant numbers. For example, there are about 25 times as many objects of a given size that pass within the distance of geosynchronous orbit than collide with the earth, and 2000 times as many pass within a lunar distance (accounting for gravitational focusing). An asteroid the size of the Chelyabinsk impactor (~20 m) could potentially be observed within geosynchronous orbit every two years and within lunar orbit nearly once a week. A Tunguska-sized asteroid (~40 m) passes within a

  2. A classification scheme for risk assessment methods.

    SciTech Connect

    Stamp, Jason Edwin; Campbell, Philip LaRoche

    2004-08-01

    This report presents a classification scheme for risk assessment methods. This scheme, like all classification schemes, provides meaning by imposing a structure that identifies relationships. Our scheme is based on two orthogonal aspects--level of detail, and approach. The resulting structure is shown in Table 1 and is explained in the body of the report. Each cell in the Table represent a different arrangement of strengths and weaknesses. Those arrangements shift gradually as one moves through the table, each cell optimal for a particular situation. The intention of this report is to enable informed use of the methods so that a method chosen is optimal for a situation given. This report imposes structure on the set of risk assessment methods in order to reveal their relationships and thus optimize their usage.We present a two-dimensional structure in the form of a matrix, using three abstraction levels for the rows and three approaches for the columns. For each of the nine cells in the matrix we identify the method type by name and example. The matrix helps the user understand: (1) what to expect from a given method, (2) how it relates to other methods, and (3) how best to use it. Each cell in the matrix represent a different arrangement of strengths and weaknesses. Those arrangements shift gradually as one moves through the table, each cell optimal for a particular situation. The intention of this report is to enable informed use of the methods so that a method chosen is optimal for a situation given. The matrix, with type names in the cells, is introduced in Table 2 on page 13 below. Unless otherwise stated we use the word 'method' in this report to refer to a 'risk assessment method', though often times we use the full phrase. The use of the terms 'risk assessment' and 'risk management' are close enough that we do not attempt to distinguish them in this report. The remainder of this report is organized as follows. In Section 2 we provide context for this report

  3. Environmental risk assessment in GMO analysis.

    PubMed

    Pirondini, Andrea; Marmiroli, Nelson

    2008-01-01

    Genetically modified or engineered organisms (GMOs, GEOs) are utilised in agriculture, expressing traits of interest, such as insect or herbicide resistance. Soybean, maize, cotton and oilseed rape are the GM crops with the largest acreage in the world. The distribution of GM acreage in the different countries is related with the different positions concerning labelling of GMO products: based on the principle of substantial equivalence, or rather based on the precautionary principle. The paper provides an overview on how the risks associated with release of GMO in the environments can be analysed and predicted, in view of a possible coexistence of GM and non-GM organisms in agriculture.Risk assessment procedures, both qualitative and quantitative, are compared in the context of application to GMOs considering also legislation requirements (Directive 2001/18/EC). Criteria and measurable properties to assess harm for human health and environmental safety are listed, and the possible consequences are evaluated in terms of significance.Finally, a mapping of the possible risks deriving from GMO release is reported, focusing on gene transfer to related species, horizontal gene transfer, direct and indirect effects on non target organisms, development of resistance in target organisms, and effects on biodiversity. PMID:19048472

  4. Workshop overview: Arsenic research and risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Sams, Reeder Wolf, Douglas C.; Ramasamy, Santhini; Ohanian, Ed; Chen, Jonathan; Lowit, Anna

    2007-08-01

    The chronic exposure of humans through consumption of high levels of inorganic arsenic (iAs)-contaminated drinking water is associated with skin lesions, peripheral vascular disease, hypertension, and cancers. Additionally, humans are exposed to organic arsenicals when used as pesticides and herbicides (e.g., monomethylarsonic acid, dimethylarsinic acid (DMA{sup V}) also known as cacodylic acid). Extensive research has been conducted to characterize the adverse health effects that result from exposure to iAs and its metabolites to describe the biological pathway(s) that lead to adverse health effects. To further this effort, on May 31, 2006, the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) sponsored a meeting entitled 'Workshop on Arsenic Research and Risk Assessment'. The invited participants from government agencies, academia, independent research organizations and consultants were asked to present their current research. The overall focus of these research efforts has been to determine the potential human health risks due to environmental exposures to arsenicals. Pursuant in these efforts is the elucidation of a mode of action for arsenicals. This paper provides a brief overview of the workshop goals, regulatory context for arsenical research, mode of action (MOA) analysis in human health risk assessment, and the application of MOA analysis for iAs and DMA{sup V}. Subsequent papers within this issue will present the research discussed at the workshop, ensuing discussions, and conclusions of the workshop.

  5. Environmental risk assessment in GMO analysis.

    PubMed

    Pirondini, Andrea; Marmiroli, Nelson

    2010-01-01

    Genetically modified or engineered organisms (GMOs, GEOs) are utilised in agriculture, expressing traits of interest, such as insect or herbicide resistance. Soybean, maize, cotton and oilseed rape are the GM crops with the largest acreage in the world. The distribution of GM acreage in the different countries is related with the different positions concerning labelling of GMO products: based on the principle of substantial equivalence, or rather based on the precautionary principle. The paper provides an overview on how the risks associated with release of GMO in the environments can be analysed and predicted, in view of a possible coexistence of GM and non-GM organisms in agriculture.Risk assessment procedures, both qualitative and quantitative, are compared in the context of application to GMOs considering also legislation requirements (Directive 2001/18/EC). Criteria and measurable properties to assess harm for human health and environmental safety are listed, and the possible consequences are evaluated in terms of significance.Finally, a mapping of the possible risks deriving from GMO release is reported, focusing on gene transfer to related species, horizontal gene transfer, direct and indirect effects on non target organisms, development of resistance in target organisms, and effects on biodiversity.

  6. Environmental risk assessment in GMO analysis.

    PubMed

    Pirondini, Andrea; Marmiroli, Nelson

    2008-01-01

    Genetically modified or engineered organisms (GMOs, GEOs) are utilised in agriculture, expressing traits of interest, such as insect or herbicide resistance. Soybean, maize, cotton and oilseed rape are the GM crops with the largest acreage in the world. The distribution of GM acreage in the different countries is related with the different positions concerning labelling of GMO products: based on the principle of substantial equivalence, or rather based on the precautionary principle. The paper provides an overview on how the risks associated with release of GMO in the environments can be analysed and predicted, in view of a possible coexistence of GM and non-GM organisms in agriculture.Risk assessment procedures, both qualitative and quantitative, are compared in the context of application to GMOs considering also legislation requirements (Directive 2001/18/EC). Criteria and measurable properties to assess harm for human health and environmental safety are listed, and the possible consequences are evaluated in terms of significance.Finally, a mapping of the possible risks deriving from GMO release is reported, focusing on gene transfer to related species, horizontal gene transfer, direct and indirect effects on non target organisms, development of resistance in target organisms, and effects on biodiversity.

  7. Environmental risk assessment in GMO analysis.

    PubMed

    Pirondini, Andrea; Marmiroli, Nelson

    2010-01-01

    Genetically modified or engineered organisms (GMOs, GEOs) are utilised in agriculture, expressing traits of interest, such as insect or herbicide resistance. Soybean, maize, cotton and oilseed rape are the GM crops with the largest acreage in the world. The distribution of GM acreage in the different countries is related with the different positions concerning labelling of GMO products: based on the principle of substantial equivalence, or rather based on the precautionary principle. The paper provides an overview on how the risks associated with release of GMO in the environments can be analysed and predicted, in view of a possible coexistence of GM and non-GM organisms in agriculture.Risk assessment procedures, both qualitative and quantitative, are compared in the context of application to GMOs considering also legislation requirements (Directive 2001/18/EC). Criteria and measurable properties to assess harm for human health and environmental safety are listed, and the possible consequences are evaluated in terms of significance.Finally, a mapping of the possible risks deriving from GMO release is reported, focusing on gene transfer to related species, horizontal gene transfer, direct and indirect effects on non target organisms, development of resistance in target organisms, and effects on biodiversity. PMID:21384330

  8. Spent Nuclear Fuel Alternative Technology Risk Assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Perella, V.F.

    1999-11-29

    A Research Reactor Spent Nuclear Fuel Task Team (RRTT) was chartered by the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Spent Fuel Management with the responsibility to recommend a course of action leading to a final technology selection for the interim management and ultimate disposition of the foreign and domestic aluminum-based research reactor spent nuclear fuel (SNF) under DOE''s jurisdiction. The RRTT evaluated eleven potential SNF management technologies and recommended that two technologies, direct co-disposal and an isotopic dilution alternative, either press and dilute or melt and dilute, be developed in parallel. Based upon that recommendation, the Westinghouse Savannah River Company (WSRC) organized the SNF Alternative Technology Program to further develop the direct co-disposal and melt and dilute technologies and provide a WSRC recommendation to DOE for a preferred SNF alternative management technology. A technology risk assessment was conducted as a first step in this recommendation process to determine if either, or both, of the technologies posed significant risks that would make them unsuitable for further development. This report provides the results of that technology risk assessment.

  9. Considering Environmental and Occupational Stressors in Cumulative Risk Assessments

    EPA Science Inventory

    While definitions vary across the global scientific community, cumulative risk assessments (CRAs) typically are described as exhibiting a population focus and analyzing the combined risks posed by multiple stressors. CRAs also may consider risk management alternatives as an anal...

  10. THE ROLE OF RISK ASSESSMENT IN ADDRESSING HAZARDOUS WASTE ISSUES

    EPA Science Inventory

    Risk assessment plays many important roles in addressing hazardous waste issues. In addition to providing a scientific framework and common health metric to evaluate risks. Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA or "Superfund") risk assessm...

  11. Toxicologic Pathology: The Basic Building Block of Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    Human health risk assessment is a critical factor in many risk management decisions. Evaluation of human health risk requires research the provides information that appropriately characterizes potential hazards from exposure. Pathology endpoints are the central response around ...

  12. Ecological risk assessment of contaminated soil.

    PubMed

    Jensen, John; Pedersen, Marianne Bruus

    2006-01-01

    This review has described three cases of ecological risk assessment. The cases include two heavy metals (Cu and Zn) and an anthropogenic organic chemical (DDT). It concludes that there are at least two major constraints hampering the use of laboratory tests to predict effects under natural field conditions. One key issue is bioavailability, and another is suboptimal conditions or multiple stresses in the field such as climatic stress (drought, frost), predators, competition, or food shortage. On the basis of the presented case studies, it was possible to answer three essential questions often raised in connection to ecological risk assessment of contaminated sites. 1. To what extend does soil screening level (SSL) estimate the risk? The SSL are generally derived at levels corresponding to the lowest observed effect levels in laboratory studies, which often is close to the background levels found in many soils. In the cases of zinc and especially DDT, the SSL seemed quite conservative, whereas for copper they resemble the level at which changes in the community structure of soil microarthropods and the plant community have been observed at contaminated sites. The SSL correspond as a whole relatively well with concentrations where no effects or only minor effects were observed in controlled field studies. However, large variation in field surveys can often make it difficult to conclude to what extent the SSL corresponded to no-effect levels in the field. 2. Do bioassays represent a more realistic risk estimate? Here, there is no firm conclusion. The zinc study in UK showed a better relationship between the outcome of ex situ bioassays and field observations than the SSL. The latter overestimated the risk compared to field observations. However, this would be species dependent, as the sensitivity to metals may vary considerably between recognized test species, even within the same group of organisms, such as Folsomia candida and Folsomia fimetaria or Eisenia fetida

  13. Health risk assessment of irradiated topaz

    SciTech Connect

    Nelson, J.W.; Baum, J.W.

    1993-01-01

    Irradiated topaz gemstones are currently processed for color improvement by subjecting clear stones to neutron or high-energy electron irradiations, which leads to activation of trace elements in the stones. Assessment of the risk to consumers required the identification and quantification of the resultant radionuclides and the attendant exposure. Representative stones from Brazil, India, Nigeria, Sri Lanka were irradiated and analyzed for gamma ray and beta particle emissions, using sodium iodide and germanium spectrometers; and Geiger-Muller, plastic and liquid scintillation, autoradiography, and thermoluminescent-dosimetry measurement techniques. Based on these studies and other information derived from published literature, dose and related risk estimates were made for typical user conditions. New criteria and methods for routine assays for acceptable release, based on gross beta and gross photon emissions from the stones, were also developed.

  14. Twenty Years of Progress in Violence Risk Assessment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hanson, R. Karl

    2005-01-01

    Violence risk assessment has advanced considerably in the last 20 years. In the 1980s, leading professionals questioned the very possibility of valid violence risk assessments; now, many of the major risk factors have been identified, and professional debate focuses on how best to combine these risk factors into meaningful evaluations. An…

  15. Chronic granulomatous disease with renal stones.

    PubMed

    Mohammed, S H; Vyas, H

    1992-01-01

    A case of chronic granulomatous disease with hydronephrosis and renal calculi is presented. This is to our knowledge the first such case to be reported. The calculi were successfully ablated by extracorporeal shockwave lithotripsy.

  16. Session: Pre-development project risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Curry, Richard; Linehan, Andy

    2004-09-01

    This second session at the Wind Energy and Birds/Bats workshop consisted of two presentations followed by a discussion/question and answer period. The focus of the presentations was on the practices and methodologies used in the wind energy industry for assessing risk to birds and bats at candidate project sites. Presenters offered examples of pre-development siting evaluation requirements set by certain states. Presentation one was titled ''Practices and Methodologies and Initial Screening Tools'' by Richard Curry of Curry and Kerlinger, LLC. Presentation two was titled ''State of the Industry in the Pacific Northwest'' by Andy Linehan, CH2MHILL.

  17. Assessing risk of solid waste compost

    SciTech Connect

    Dyer, J.M.; Razvi, A.S. )

    1987-03-01

    This paper addresses the movement of metals in soils and their accumulation in plants. Research with sewage sludge compost indicates that these risks can be minimized with proper handling and management. The objectives of this study were: (I) to evaluate potential groundwater contamination due to plant nutrients and heavy metals in the compost; and (II) to assess the accumulation of metals in plants grown on compost-amended soil. Data are presented for analyses of nickel, lead, cadmium, copper and zinc in snap beans.

  18. Methodological challenges in health risk assessment. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1987-10-12

    Risk assessment, a major activity of both health and regulatory agencies, is subject to large and unavoidable uncertainties. Thus, different teams of knowledgeable experts can come to different conclusions about risks to human health from various sorts of hazards. This report examines and compares analyses by two or more agencies of ten health hazards or potential hazards: ethylene dibromide, formaldehyde, Tris, dioxin (limited to cancer risks of contaminated soil), lead (reproductive effects), cotton dust, noise (long-term hearing impairment), passive smoking, dietary fat (cancer risks), and the radiation hazards of mammography. Each set of risk assessments is analyzed in depth. The report then turns to cross-cutting analyses of such matters as setting priorities for risk assessment, approaches and methods used to evaluate different kinds of risks, and the relationships between risk assessment and risk management. Overall, the report found large differences among risk assessments of the same hazard, but these differences are often quite appropriate.

  19. NEUROBEHAVIORAL TESTING IN HUMAN RISK ASSESSMENT

    PubMed Central

    Rohlman, Diane S.; Lucchini, Roberto; Anger, W. Kent; Bellinger, David C.; van Thriel, Christoph

    2008-01-01

    Neurobehavioral tests are being increasingly used in human risk assessment and there is a strong need for guidance. The field of neurobehavioral toxicology has evolved from research which initially focused on using traditional neuropsychological tests to identify “abnormal cases” to include methods used to detect sub-clinical deficits, to further incorporate the use of neurosensory assessment, and to expand testing from occupational populations to vulnerable populations including older adults and children. Even as exposures in the workplace are reduced, they have been increasing in the environment and research on exposure has now expanded to cross the entire lifetime. These neurobehavioral methods are applied in research and the findings used for regulatory purposes to develop preventative action for exposed populations. This paper reflects a summary of the talks presented at the symposium presented at the 11th meeting of the International Neurotoxicology Association. PMID:18539229

  20. Applying a weed risk assessment approach to GM crops.

    PubMed

    Keese, Paul K; Robold, Andrea V; Myers, Ruth C; Weisman, Sarah; Smith, Joe

    2014-12-01

    Current approaches to environmental risk assessment of genetically modified (GM) plants are modelled on chemical risk assessment methods, which have a strong focus on toxicity. There are additional types of harms posed by plants that have been extensively studied by weed scientists and incorporated into weed risk assessment methods. Weed risk assessment uses robust, validated methods that are widely applied to regulatory decision-making about potentially problematic plants. They are designed to encompass a broad variety of plant forms and traits in different environments, and can provide reliable conclusions even with limited data. The knowledge and experience that underpin weed risk assessment can be harnessed for environmental risk assessment of GM plants. A case study illustrates the application of the Australian post-border weed risk assessment approach to a representative GM plant. This approach is a valuable tool to identify potential risks from GM plants.

  1. Simplified probabilistic risk assessment in fuel reprocessing

    SciTech Connect

    Solbrig, C.W.

    1993-03-01

    An evaluation was made to determine if a backup mass tracking computer would significantly reduce the probability of criticality in the fuel reprocessing of the Integral Fast Reactor. Often tradeoff studies, such as this, must be made that would greatly benefit from a Probably Risk Assessment (PRA). The major benefits of a complete PRA can often be accrued with a Simplified Probabilistic Risk Assessment (SPRA). An SPRA was performed by selecting a representative fuel reprocessing operation (moving a piece of fuel) for analysis. It showed that the benefit of adding parallel computers was small compared to the benefit which could be obtained by adding parallelism to two computer input steps and two of the weighing operations. The probability of an incorrect material moves with the basic process is estimated to be 4 out of 100 moves. The actual values of the probability numbers are considered accurate to within an order of magnitude. The most useful result of developing the fault trees accrue from the ability to determine where significant improvements in the process can be made. By including the above mentioned parallelism, the error move rate can be reduced to 1 out of 1000.

  2. Simplified probabilistic risk assessment in fuel reprocessing

    SciTech Connect

    Solbrig, C.W.

    1993-01-01

    An evaluation was made to determine if a backup mass tracking computer would significantly reduce the probability of criticality in the fuel reprocessing of the Integral Fast Reactor. Often tradeoff studies, such as this, must be made that would greatly benefit from a Probably Risk Assessment (PRA). The major benefits of a complete PRA can often be accrued with a Simplified Probabilistic Risk Assessment (SPRA). An SPRA was performed by selecting a representative fuel reprocessing operation (moving a piece of fuel) for analysis. It showed that the benefit of adding parallel computers was small compared to the benefit which could be obtained by adding parallelism to two computer input steps and two of the weighing operations. The probability of an incorrect material moves with the basic process is estimated to be 4 out of 100 moves. The actual values of the probability numbers are considered accurate to within an order of magnitude. The most useful result of developing the fault trees accrue from the ability to determine where significant improvements in the process can be made. By including the above mentioned parallelism, the error move rate can be reduced to 1 out of 1000.

  3. The new tapestry of risk assessment

    PubMed Central

    Weiss, Bernard; Cory-Slechta, Deborah; Gilbert, Steven G.; Mergler, Donna; Miller, Elise; Miller, Claudia; Newland, M. Christopher; Rice, Deborah; Schettler, Ted

    2008-01-01

    Neurotoxicology is entering a new phase in how it views and practices risk assessment. Perhaps more than any of the other disciplines that comprise the science of toxicology, it has been compelled to consider a daunting array of factors other than those directly coupled to chemical and dose, and the age and sex of the subject population. In epidemiological investigations, researchers are increasingly cognizant of the problems introduced by allegedly controlling for variables classified as confounders or covariates. In essence, they reason, the consequence is blurring or even concealing interactions of exposure with modifiers such as the individual’s social ecology. Other researchers question the traditional practice of relying on values such as NOAELs when they are abstracted from a biological entity that in reality represents a multiplicity of intertwined systems. Although neurotoxicologists have come to recognize the complexities of assessing risk in all its dimensions, they still face the challenge of communicating this view to the health professions at large. PMID:18501430

  4. Assessing risk factors for periodontitis using regression

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lobo Pereira, J. A.; Ferreira, Maria Cristina; Oliveira, Teresa

    2013-10-01

    Multivariate statistical analysis is indispensable to assess the associations and interactions between different factors and the risk of periodontitis. Among others, regression analysis is a statistical technique widely used in healthcare to investigate and model the relationship between variables. In our work we study the impact of socio-demographic, medical and behavioral factors on periodontal health. Using regression, linear and logistic models, we can assess the relevance, as risk factors for periodontitis disease, of the following independent variables (IVs): Age, Gender, Diabetic Status, Education, Smoking status and Plaque Index. The multiple linear regression analysis model was built to evaluate the influence of IVs on mean Attachment Loss (AL). Thus, the regression coefficients along with respective p-values will be obtained as well as the respective p-values from the significance tests. The classification of a case (individual) adopted in the logistic model was the extent of the destruction of periodontal tissues defined by an Attachment Loss greater than or equal to 4 mm in 25% (AL≥4mm/≥25%) of sites surveyed. The association measures include the Odds Ratios together with the correspondent 95% confidence intervals.

  5. A statistical model for collective risk assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Keef, Caroline; Tawn, Jonathan A.; Lamb, Rob

    2010-05-01

    In this paper we present the theoretical basis of a statistical method that can be used as the basis of a collective risk assessment for country (or continent)-wide events. Our method is based on the conditional dependence model of Heffernan and Tawn (2004), which has been extended to handle missing data and temporal dependence by Keef et al (2009). This model describes the full joint distribution function of a set of variables and incorporates separate models for the marginal and dependence characteristics of the set using a copula approach. The advantages of this model include; the flexibility in terms of types of dependence modelled; the ability to handle situations where the dependence in the tails of the data is not the same as that in the main body of the data; the ability to handle both temporal and spatial dependence; and the ability to model a large number of variables. In this paper we present further extensions to the statistical model which allow us to simulate country-wide extreme events with the correct spatial and temporal structure and show an application to river flood events. Heffernan J. E. and Tawn J. A. (2004) A conditional approach for multivariate extreme values (with discussion) J. R. Statist. Soc. B, 66 497-546 Keef, C., J. Tawn, and C. Svensson. (2009). Spatial risk assessment for extreme river flows. Applied Statistics 58,(5) pp 601-618

  6. Hydrogen quantitative risk assessment workshop proceedings.

    SciTech Connect

    Groth, Katrina M.; Harris, Aaron P.

    2013-09-01

    The Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) Toolkit Introduction Workshop was held at Energetics on June 11-12. The workshop was co-hosted by Sandia National Laboratories (Sandia) and HySafe, the International Association for Hydrogen Safety. The objective of the workshop was twofold: (1) Present a hydrogen-specific methodology and toolkit (currently under development) for conducting QRA to support the development of codes and standards and safety assessments of hydrogen-fueled vehicles and fueling stations, and (2) Obtain feedback on the needs of early-stage users (hydrogen as well as potential leveraging for Compressed Natural Gas [CNG], and Liquefied Natural Gas [LNG]) and set priorities for %E2%80%9CVersion 1%E2%80%9D of the toolkit in the context of the commercial evolution of hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEV). The workshop consisted of an introduction and three technical sessions: Risk Informed Development and Approach; CNG/LNG Applications; and Introduction of a Hydrogen Specific QRA Toolkit.

  7. Cyanide analyses for risk and treatability assessments

    SciTech Connect

    MacFarlane, I.D.; Elseroad, H.J.; Pergrin, D.E.; Logan, C.M.

    1994-12-31

    Cyanide, an EPA priority pollutant and target analyte, is typically measured as total. However, cyanide complexation, information which is not acquired through total cyanide analysis, is often a driver of cyanide toxicity and treatability. A case study of a former manufacture gas plant (MGP) is used to demonstrate the usability of various cyanide analytical methods for risk and treatability assessments. Several analytical methods, including cyanide amenable to chlorination and weak acid dissociable cyanide help test the degree of cyanide complexation. Generally, free or uncomplexed cyanide is more biologically available, toxic, and reactive than complexed cyanide. Extensive site testing has shown that free and weakly dissociable cyanide composes only a small fraction of total cyanide as would be expected from the literature, and that risk assessment will be more realistic considering cyanide form. Likewise, aqueous treatment for cyanide can be properly tested if cyanide form is accounted for. Weak acid dissociable cyanide analyses proved to be the most reliable (and potentially acceptable) cyanide method, as well as represent the most toxic and reactive cyanide forms.

  8. Physiologically based pharmacokinetics and cancer risk assessment.

    PubMed Central

    Andersen, M E; Krishnan, K

    1994-01-01

    Physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling involves mathematically describing the complex interplay of the critical physicochemical and biological determinants involved in the disposition of chemicals. In this approach, the body is divided into a number of biologically relevant tissue compartments, arranged in an anatomically accurate manner, and defined with appropriate physiological characteristics. The extrapolation of pharmacokinetic behavior of chemicals from high dose to low dose for various exposure routes and species is possible with this approach because these models are developed by integrating quantitative information on the critical determinants of chemical disposition under a biological modeling framework. The principal application of PBPK models is in the prediction of tissue dosimetry of toxic moiety (e.g., parent chemical, reactive metabolite, macromolecular adduct) of a chemical. Such an application has been demonstrated with dichloromethane, a liver and lung carcinogen in the B6C3F1 mouse. The PBPK model-based risk assessment approach estimated a cancer risk to people of 3.7 x 10(-8) for a lifetime inhalation exposure of 1 micrograms/m3, which is lower by more than two orders of magnitude than that calculated by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency using the linearized multistage model (for low-dose extrapolation) and body surface correction factor (for interspecies scaling). The capability of predicting the target tissue exposure to toxic moiety in people with PBPK models should help reduce the uncertainty associated with the extrapolation procedures adopted in conventional dose-response assessment. PMID:8187697

  9. VOLCANIC RISK ASSESSMENT - PROBABILITY AND CONSEQUENCES

    SciTech Connect

    G.A. Valentine; F.V. Perry; S. Dartevelle

    2005-08-26

    Risk is the product of the probability and consequences of an event. Both of these must be based upon sound science that integrates field data, experiments, and modeling, but must also be useful to decision makers who likely do not understand all aspects of the underlying science. We review a decision framework used in many fields such as performance assessment for hazardous and/or radioactive waste disposal sites that can serve to guide the volcanological community towards integrated risk assessment. In this framework the underlying scientific understanding of processes that affect probability and consequences drive the decision-level results, but in turn these results can drive focused research in areas that cause the greatest level of uncertainty at the decision level. We review two examples of the determination of volcanic event probability: (1) probability of a new volcano forming at the proposed Yucca Mountain radioactive waste repository, and (2) probability that a subsurface repository in Japan would be affected by the nearby formation of a new stratovolcano. We also provide examples of work on consequences of explosive eruptions, within the framework mentioned above. These include field-based studies aimed at providing data for ''closure'' of wall rock erosion terms in a conduit flow model, predictions of dynamic pressure and other variables related to damage by pyroclastic flow into underground structures, and vulnerability criteria for structures subjected to conditions of explosive eruption. Process models (e.g., multiphase flow) are important for testing the validity or relative importance of possible scenarios in a volcanic risk assessment. We show how time-dependent multiphase modeling of explosive ''eruption'' of basaltic magma into an open tunnel (drift) at the Yucca Mountain repository provides insight into proposed scenarios that include the development of secondary pathways to the Earth's surface. Addressing volcanic risk within a decision

  10. Simulation Assisted Risk Assessment: Blast Overpressure Modeling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lawrence, Scott L.; Gee, Ken; Mathias, Donovan; Olsen, Michael

    2006-01-01

    A probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) approach has been developed and applied to the risk analysis of capsule abort during ascent. The PRA is used to assist in the identification of modeling and simulation applications that can significantly impact the understanding of crew risk during this potentially dangerous maneuver. The PRA approach is also being used to identify the appropriate level of fidelity for the modeling of those critical failure modes. The Apollo launch escape system (LES) was chosen as a test problem for application of this approach. Failure modes that have been modeled and/or simulated to date include explosive overpressure-based failure, explosive fragment-based failure, land landing failures (range limits exceeded either near launch or Mode III trajectories ending on the African continent), capsule-booster re-contact during separation, and failure due to plume-induced instability. These failure modes have been investigated using analysis tools in a variety of technical disciplines at various levels of fidelity. The current paper focuses on the development and application of a blast overpressure model for the prediction of structural failure due to overpressure, including the application of high-fidelity analysis to predict near-field and headwinds effects.

  11. Earthquake Hazard and Risk Assessment for Turkey

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Betul Demircioglu, Mine; Sesetyan, Karin; Erdik, Mustafa

    2010-05-01

    Using a GIS-environment to present the results, seismic risk analysis is considered as a helpful tool to support the decision making for planning and prioritizing seismic retrofit intervention programs at large scale. The main ingredients of seismic risk analysis consist of seismic hazard, regional inventory of buildings and vulnerability analysis. In this study, the assessment of the national earthquake hazard based on the NGA ground motion prediction models and the comparisons of the results with the previous models have been considered, respectively. An evaluation of seismic risk based on the probabilistic intensity ground motion prediction for Turkey has been investigated. According to the Macroseismic approach of Giovinazzi and Lagomarsino (2005), two alternative vulnerability models have been used to estimate building damage. The vulnerability and ductility indices for Turkey have been taken from the study of Giovinazzi (2005). These two vulnerability models have been compared with the observed earthquake damage database. A good agreement between curves has been clearly observed. In additional to the building damage, casualty estimations based on three different methods for each return period and for each vulnerability model have been presented to evaluate the earthquake loss. Using three different models of building replacement costs, the average annual loss (AAL) and probable maximum loss ratio (PMLR) due to regional earthquake hazard have been provided to form a basis for the improvement of the parametric insurance model and the determination of premium rates for the compulsory earthquake insurance in Turkey.

  12. Quality assurance checks on ecological risk assessments

    SciTech Connect

    Ferson, S.; Ginzburg, L.

    1995-12-31

    Three major criticisms are routinely made against probabilistic ecological risk assessments: (1) input distributions are often not available, (2) correlations and dependencies are often ignored, and (3) mathematical structure of the ecological model is often questionable. These criticisms are well understood by risk analysts, but it is generally assumed that their only solution is additional empirical effort to develop input distributions, measure correlations and validate the model. As a practical matter, since such empirical information is typically incomplete (and indeed often quite sparse), analysts are forced to make assumptions without empirical justifications. There are, however, computational methods that may allow analysts to sidestep a lack of information to partially or completely answer the three criticisms. When empirical information about the input distributions is limited, comprehensive representations of uncertainty can be estimated using traditional confidence interval or bounding procedures. Using recently developed methods, the probability distribution bounds can be used directly in calculations. When the correlation and dependency structure among variables is unknown, bounds on solutions can be computed without having to make unjustified and possibly false assumptions about independence. Finally, automated checks on the ecological model or mathematical expression used in the risk analysis can be employed to ensure the absence of several classes of structural and mathematical errors. Several kinds of profound errors which are routinely committed in practice, including dimensional or unit discordance, infeasible configurations for correlation, and multiple instantiations of a repeated variable, can all be detected using currently available methods and software.

  13. Probabilistic Risk Assessment of disassembly procedures

    SciTech Connect

    O`Brien, D.A.; Bement, T.R.; Letellier, B.C.

    1993-10-01

    Probabilistic Risk (Safety) Assessment (PRA or PSA) is an analytic methodology for identifying the combination of events that, if they occur, lead to accidents. Accidents are defined as those events causing loss or injury to people, property, or the environment. PRA also provides a method for estimating the frequency of occurrence of each combination of events and the consequences of each accident. The Los Alamos effort for this study is summarized as follows: The focus of the Los Alamos study was on evaluating the risks specifically associated with disassembling a Los Alamos-designed device. The PRA for the disassembly operation included a detailed evaluation only for those potential accident sequences which could lead to significant off-site consequences and affect public health. The overall purpose of this study was to investigate the feasibility of a risk consequence goal for DOE operations. Often called a Level 3 PRA (or PSA), the methods are general and can with a little modification be applied to other procedures or processes.

  14. Assessment of Interpersonal Risk (AIR) in Adults with Learning Disabilities and Challenging Behaviour--Piloting a New Risk Assessment Tool

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Campbell, Martin; McCue, Michael

    2013-01-01

    A new risk assessment tool, "Assessment of Interpersonal Risk" (AIR), was piloted and evaluated to measure risk factors and compatibility between individuals living in an assessment and treatment unit in one NHS area. The adults with learning disabilities in this unit had severe and enduring mental health problems and/or behaviour that is severely…

  15. 78 FR 36787 - Rechanneling the Current Cardiac Risk Paradigm: Arrhythmia Risk Assessment During Drug...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-06-19

    ... From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES Food and Drug Administration Rechanneling the Current Cardiac Risk Paradigm: Arrhythmia... the Current Cardiac Risk Paradigm: Arrhythmia Risk Assessment During Drug Development Without...

  16. [Regional atmospheric environment risk source identification and assessment].

    PubMed

    Zhang, Xiao-Chun; Chen, Wei-Ping; Ma, Chun; Zhan, Shui-Fen; Jiao, Wen-Tao

    2012-12-01

    Identification and assessment for atmospheric environment risk source plays an important role in regional atmospheric risk assessment and regional atmospheric pollution prevention and control. The likelihood exposure and consequence assessment method (LEC method) and the Delphi method were employed to build a fast and effective method for identification and assessment of regional atmospheric environment risk sources. This method was applied to the case study of a large coal transportation port in North China. The assessment results showed that the risk characteristics and the harm degree of regional atmospheric environment risk source were in line with the actual situation. Fast and effective identification and assessment of risk source has laid an important foundation for the regional atmospheric environmental risk assessment and regional atmospheric pollution prevention and control.

  17. Risk factors for postoperative infectious complications following percutaneous nephrolithotomy: a prospective clinical study.

    PubMed

    Koras, Omer; Bozkurt, Ibrahim Halil; Yonguc, Tarik; Degirmenci, Tansu; Arslan, Burak; Gunlusoy, Bulent; Aydogdu, Ozgu; Minareci, Suleyman

    2015-02-01

    The aim of the study was to assess the preoperative and intraoperative potential risk factors for infectious complications after percutaneous nephrolithotomy (PCNL). A total of 303 patients who underwent PCNL for renal stones were included in the recent study. A detailed history including past renal surgery, nephrostomy insertion and recurrent urinary infection were obtained from all patients. Preoperative urine culture, renal pelvic urine culture and stone culture were obtained from all patients. The intraoperative data were prospectively noted. All patients were followed up postoperatively for signs of systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) and sepsis. In 83 (27.4%) of the patients, SIRS was observed and of these patients 23 (7.6%) were diagnosed as sepsis. Escherichia coli was the most common organism detected in cultures, followed by Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Enterococcus and Klebsiella spp. in all patients. By multivariate logistic regression analysis, presence of infection stone, stone burden and recurrent urinary tract infection were associated with both SIRS and sepsis development. Presence of infection stone, stone burden ≥800 mm(2) and recurrent urinary tract infection can be identified as independent predictors for the development of SIRS and sepsis. PMID:25269441

  18. Quantitative Risk Assessment for Enhanced Geothermal Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lowry, T. S.; McKenna, S. A.; Hadgu, T.; Kalinina, E.

    2011-12-01

    This study uses a quantitative risk-assessment approach to place the uncertainty associated with enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) development into meaningful context and to identify points of attack that can reduce risk the most. Using the integrated geothermal assessment tool, GT-Mod, we calculate the complimentary cumulative distribution function of the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) that results from uncertainty in a variety of geologic and economic input parameter values. EGS is a developing technology that taps deep (2-10km) geologic heat sources for energy production by "enhancing" non-permeable hot rock through hydraulic stimulation. Despite the promise of EGS, uncertainties in predicting the physical end economic performance of a site has hindered its development. To address this, we apply a quantitative risk-assessment approach that calculates risk as the sum of the consequence, C, multiplied by the range of the probability, ΔP, over all estimations of a given exceedance probability, n, over time, t. The consequence here is defined as the deviation from the best estimate LCOE, which is calculated using the 'best-guess' input parameter values. The analysis assumes a realistic but fictitious EGS site with uncertainties in the exploration success rate, the sub-surface thermal gradient, the reservoir fracture pattern, and the power plant performance. Uncertainty in the exploration, construction, O&M, and drilling costs are also included. The depth to the resource is calculated from the thermal gradient and a target resource temperature of 225 °C. Thermal performance is simulated using the Gringarten analytical solution. The mass flow rate is set to produce 30 MWe of power for the given conditions and is adjusted over time to maintain that rate over the plant lifetime of 30 years. Simulations are conducted using GT-Mod, which dynamically links the physical systems of a geothermal site to simulate, as an integrated, multi-system component, the

  19. Risk-Assessment for Equipment Operating on the Lunar Surface

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Richmond, R. C.; Kusiak, A.; Ramachandran, N.

    2008-01-01

    Particle-size distribution of lunar dust simulant is evaluated using scanning electron spectroscopy in order to consider approaches to evaluating risk to individual mechanical components operating on the lunar surface. Assessing component risk and risk-mitigation during actual operations will require noninvasive continuous data gathering on numerous parameters. Those data sets would best be evaluated using data-mining algorithms to assess risk, and recovery from risk, of individual mechanical components in real-time.

  20. Ecological risk assessment of contaminated soil.

    PubMed

    Jensen, John; Pedersen, Marianne Bruus

    2006-01-01

    This review has described three cases of ecological risk assessment. The cases include two heavy metals (Cu and Zn) and an anthropogenic organic chemical (DDT). It concludes that there are at least two major constraints hampering the use of laboratory tests to predict effects under natural field conditions. One key issue is bioavailability, and another is suboptimal conditions or multiple stresses in the field such as climatic stress (drought, frost), predators, competition, or food shortage. On the basis of the presented case studies, it was possible to answer three essential questions often raised in connection to ecological risk assessment of contaminated sites. 1. To what extend does soil screening level (SSL) estimate the risk? The SSL are generally derived at levels corresponding to the lowest observed effect levels in laboratory studies, which often is close to the background levels found in many soils. In the cases of zinc and especially DDT, the SSL seemed quite conservative, whereas for copper they resemble the level at which changes in the community structure of soil microarthropods and the plant community have been observed at contaminated sites. The SSL correspond as a whole relatively well with concentrations where no effects or only minor effects were observed in controlled field studies. However, large variation in field surveys can often make it difficult to conclude to what extent the SSL corresponded to no-effect levels in the field. 2. Do bioassays represent a more realistic risk estimate? Here, there is no firm conclusion. The zinc study in UK showed a better relationship between the outcome of ex situ bioassays and field observations than the SSL. The latter overestimated the risk compared to field observations. However, this would be species dependent, as the sensitivity to metals may vary considerably between recognized test species, even within the same group of organisms, such as Folsomia candida and Folsomia fimetaria or Eisenia fetida

  1. Melanoma susceptibility genes and risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Marzuka-Alcalá, Alexander; Gabree, Michele Jacobs; Tsao, Hensin

    2014-01-01

    Familial melanoma accounts for approximately a tenth of all melanoma cases. The most commonly known melanoma susceptibility gene is the highly penetrant CDKN2A (p16INK4a) locus, which is transmitted in an autosomal dominant fashion and accounts for approximately 20-50 % of familial melanoma cases. Mutated p16INK4a shows impaired capacity to inhibit the cyclin D1-CDK4 complex, allowing for unchecked cell cycle progression. Mutations in the second protein coded by CDKN2A, p14ARF, are much less common and result in proteasomal degradation of p53 with subsequent accumulation of DNA damage as the cell progresses through the cell cycle without a functional p53-mediated DNA damage response. Mutations in CDK4 that impair the inhibitory interaction with p16INK4a also increase melanoma risk but these mutations are extremely rare. Genes of the melanin biosynthetic pathway, including MC1R and MITF, have also been implicated in melanomagenesis. MC1R variants were traditionally thought to increase risk for melanoma secondary to intensified UV-mediated DNA damage in the setting of absent photoprotective eumelanin. Accumulation of pheomelanin, which appears to have a carcinogenic effect regardless of UV exposure, may be a more likely mechanism. Impaired SUMOylation of the E318K variant of MITF results in increased transcription of genes that confer melanocytes with a pro-malignant phenotype. Mutations in the tumor suppressor BAP1 enhance the metastatic potential of uveal melanoma and predispose to cutaneous/ocular melanoma, atypical melanocytic tumors, and other internal malignancies (COMMON syndrome). Genome-wide association studies have identified numerous low-risk alleles. Although several melanoma susceptibility genes have been identified, risk assessment tools have been developed only for the most common gene implicated with hereditary melanoma, CDKN2A. MelaPRO, a validated model that relies on Mendelian inheritance and Bayesian probability theories, estimates carrier

  2. Radiological risk assessment of environmental radon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khalid, Norafatin; Majid, Amran Ab; Yahaya, Redzuwan; Yasir, Muhammad Samudi

    2013-11-01

    Measurements of radon gas (222Rn) in the environmental are important to assess indoor air quality and to study the potential risk to human health. Generally known that exposure to radon is considered the second leading cause of lung cancer after smoking. The environmental radon concentration depends on the 226Ra concentration, indoor atmosphere, cracking on rocks and building materials. This study was carried out to determine the indoor radon concentration from selected samples of tin tailings (amang) and building materials in an airtight sealed homemade radon chamber. The radiological risk assessment for radon gas was also calculated based on the annual exposure dose, effective dose equivalent, radon exhalation rates and fatal cancer risk. The continuous radon monitor Sun Nuclear model 1029 was used to measure the radon concentration emanates from selected samples for 96 hours. Five types of tin tailings collected from Kampar, Perak and four samples of building materials commonly used in Malaysia dwellings or building constructions were analysed for radon concentration. The indoor radon concentration determined in ilmenite, monazite, struverite, xenotime and zircon samples varies from 219.6 ± 76.8 Bq m-3 to 571.1 ± 251.4 Bq m-3, 101.0 ± 41.0 Bq m-3 to 245.3 ± 100.2 Bq m-3, 53.1 ± 7.5 Bq m-3 to 181.8 ± 9.7 Bq m-3, 256.1 ± 59.3 Bq m-3 to 652.2 ± 222.2 Bq m-3 and 164.5 ± 75.9 Bq m-3 to 653.3 ± 240.0 Bq m-3, respectively. Whereas, in the building materials, the radon concentration from cement brick, red-clay brick, gravel aggregate and cement showed 396.3 ± 194.3 Bq m-3, 192.1 ± 75.4 Bq m-3, 176.1 ± 85.9 Bq m-3 and 28.4 ± 5.7 Bq m-3, respectively. The radon concentration in tin tailings and building materials were found to be much higher in xenotime and cement brick samples than others. All samples in tin tailings were exceeded the action level for radon gas of 148 Bq m-3 proposed by EPA except monazite 0.15 kg, struverite 0.15 kg and 0.25 kg. Whereas

  3. Radiological risk assessment of environmental radon

    SciTech Connect

    Khalid, Norafatin; Majid, Amran Ab; Yahaya, Redzuwan; Yasir, Muhammad Samudi

    2013-11-27

    Measurements of radon gas ({sup 222}Rn) in the environmental are important to assess indoor air quality and to study the potential risk to human health. Generally known that exposure to radon is considered the second leading cause of lung cancer after smoking. The environmental radon concentration depends on the {sup 226}Ra concentration, indoor atmosphere, cracking on rocks and building materials. This study was carried out to determine the indoor radon concentration from selected samples of tin tailings (amang) and building materials in an airtight sealed homemade radon chamber. The radiological risk assessment for radon gas was also calculated based on the annual exposure dose, effective dose equivalent, radon exhalation rates and fatal cancer risk. The continuous radon monitor Sun Nuclear model 1029 was used to measure the radon concentration emanates from selected samples for 96 hours. Five types of tin tailings collected from Kampar, Perak and four samples of building materials commonly used in Malaysia dwellings or building constructions were analysed for radon concentration. The indoor radon concentration determined in ilmenite, monazite, struverite, xenotime and zircon samples varies from 219.6 ± 76.8 Bq m{sup −3} to 571.1 ± 251.4 Bq m{sup −3}, 101.0 ± 41.0 Bq m{sup −3} to 245.3 ± 100.2 Bq m{sup −3}, 53.1 ± 7.5 Bq m{sup −3} to 181.8 ± 9.7 Bq m{sup −3}, 256.1 ± 59.3 Bq m{sup −3} to 652.2 ± 222.2 Bq m{sup −3} and 164.5 ± 75.9 Bq m{sup −3} to 653.3 ± 240.0 Bq m{sup −3}, respectively. Whereas, in the building materials, the radon concentration from cement brick, red-clay brick, gravel aggregate and cement showed 396.3 ± 194.3 Bq m{sup −3}, 192.1 ± 75.4 Bq m{sup −3}, 176.1 ± 85.9 Bq m{sup −3} and 28.4 ± 5.7 Bq m{sup −3}, respectively. The radon concentration in tin tailings and building materials were found to be much higher in xenotime and cement brick samples than others. All samples in tin tailings were exceeded the

  4. Risk assessment of malicious biocontamination of food.

    PubMed

    Elad, Daniel

    2005-06-01

    Throughout the last decades of the 20th century, the biological threat evolved from primarily a government-controlled weapon to a tool of terrorism. One of the consequences of this trend is the near impossibility of foreseeing when and how an act of bioterrorism will occur. The suitability of food products for such an act stems from the multitude of microorganisms that may be used for contamination and the vulnerability of the products during and after processing. Tests that would enable the detection of a large variety of microorganisms quickly, reliably, and economically should also provide satisfactory means to prevent acts of malicious biocontamination of food products. Until such means become available, a priority-based approach to the problem is probably the most practical. Priorities should be determined based on a systematic risk assessment to define the relative likelihood of a certain microorganism being used in an act of malicious food contamination. Criteria to be evaluated are availability, weaponization processes, delivery of an effective dose, probability of early detection, and the microorganism's resistance to the conditions to which it will be exposed. Because the results of such an assessment may vary according to prevailing conditions, the assessment must be based on the existing circumstances. The results of the assessment should then be applied to the various procedures of food processing, which should further reduce the number of potential microbial threats. Existing methods of screening food for contaminating microorganisms and existing food safety and security procedures such as hazard analysis and critical control point programs may have to be modified to become suitable for the detection of acts of bioterrorism.

  5. Performing Probabilistic Risk Assessment Through RAVEN

    SciTech Connect

    A. Alfonsi; C. Rabiti; D. Mandelli; J. Cogliati; R. Kinoshita

    2013-06-01

    The Reactor Analysis and Virtual control ENviroment (RAVEN) code is a software tool that acts as the control logic driver and post-processing engine for the newly developed Thermal-Hydraulic code RELAP-7. RAVEN is now a multi-purpose Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) software framework that allows dispatching different functionalities: Derive and actuate the control logic required to simulate the plant control system and operator actions (guided procedures), allowing on-line monitoring/controlling in the Phase Space Perform both Monte-Carlo sampling of random distributed events and Dynamic Event Tree based analysis Facilitate the input/output handling through a Graphical User Interface (GUI) and a post-processing data mining module

  6. Mechanical system reliability and risk assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cruse, T. A.; Mahadevan, S.; Huang, Q.; Mehta, S.

    1994-11-01

    A new methodology is reported for the prediction of the reliability of mechanical structures subject to multiple failure modes, including noncritical damage. The reduction of system reliability due to accumulated damage is quantitatively estimated by updating the critical system failure states at each level of damage. Correlated design variables are automatically accounted for in the system reliability calculations. Second-order reliability bounds are reported which are unbiased to the ordering of the events. A system risk assessment methodology is also reported that accounts for the cost of multiple types of failure modes and includes the effect of inspection success on reducing the consequences of system failure. Application of the new technology is illustrated for a simplified system model of an aeropropulsion rotor system. However, the methodology is general and is applicable to any engineering system.

  7. System Analysis and Risk Assessment System.

    2000-11-20

    Version 00 SARA4.16 is a program that allows the user to review the results of a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) and to perform limited sensitivity analysis on these results. This tool is intended to be used by a less technical oriented user and does not require the level of understanding of PRA concepts required by a full PRA analysis tool. With this program a user can review the information generated by a PRA analyst andmore » compare the results to those generated by making limited modifications to the data in the PRA. Also included in this program is the ability to graphically display the information stored in the database. This information includes event trees, fault trees, P&IDs and uncertainty distributions. SARA 4.16 is incorporated in the SAPHIRE 5.0 code package.« less

  8. United States Environmental Protection Agency: Use of risk assessment and risk management methodologies. Master's thesis

    SciTech Connect

    Lamuro, R.J.

    1992-09-30

    Make a full investigation of the policy implications and appropriate uses of risk assessment and risk management in regulatory programs under various Federal laws to prevent cancer and other chronic health effects which may result from exposure to hazardous substances. This is the primary mission of the Risk Assessment and Management Commission (Risk Commission). The Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 (CAAA), created the Risk Commission reflecting Congress' concern over agency use of risk assessment and risk management techniques and methodologies to implement federal laws protective of human health. The Risk Commission is to consider: methods for measuring and describing risks of chronic health effects from hazardous substances; methods to reflect uncertainties associated with estimation techniques, and whether it is possible or desirable to develop a consistent risk assessment methodology or a consistent standard of acceptable risk for various federal programs.

  9. Some issues in risk assessment for agricultural chemicals.

    PubMed

    Rodricks, J V; Rachman, N J

    1990-01-01

    Risk assessment is now a significant feature of most environmental risk management programs, in both industry and government. The purpose of this paper is to describe the elements of risk assessment, their strengths and limitations, and their relationship to other activities, including research and risk management. Risk assessment issues to be examined are those especially important to the agricultural community, including problems of high-risk subpopulations, exposure through unauthorized pathways (e.g., those resulting from groundwater contamination or pesticide misuse), and inadequacies in toxicity and residue data bases.

  10. Assessing calibration of multinomial risk prediction models.

    PubMed

    Van Hoorde, Kirsten; Vergouwe, Yvonne; Timmerman, Dirk; Van Huffel, Sabine; Steyerberg, Ewout W; Van Calster, Ben

    2014-07-10

    Calibration, that is, whether observed outcomes agree with predicted risks, is important when evaluating risk prediction models. For dichotomous outcomes, several tools exist to assess different aspects of model calibration, such as calibration-in-the-large, logistic recalibration, and (non-)parametric calibration plots. We aim to extend these tools to prediction models for polytomous outcomes. We focus on models developed using multinomial logistic regression (MLR): outcome Y with k categories is predicted using k - 1 equations comparing each category i (i = 2, … ,k) with reference category 1 using a set of predictors, resulting in k - 1 linear predictors. We propose a multinomial logistic recalibration framework that involves an MLR fit where Y is predicted using the k - 1 linear predictors from the prediction model. A non-parametric alternative may use vector splines for the effects of the linear predictors. The parametric and non-parametric frameworks can be used to generate multinomial calibration plots. Further, the parametric framework can be used for the estimation and statistical testing of calibration intercepts and slopes. Two illustrative case studies are presented, one on the diagnosis of malignancy of ovarian tumors and one on residual mass diagnosis in testicular cancer patients treated with cisplatin-based chemotherapy. The risk prediction models were developed on data from 2037 and 544 patients and externally validated on 1107 and 550 patients, respectively. We conclude that calibration tools can be extended to polytomous outcomes. The polytomous calibration plots are particularly informative through the visual summary of the calibration performance.

  11. Evolutionary Consequences for Ecological Risk Assessment and Management.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gochfeld, Michael; Burger, Joanna

    1993-01-01

    Discusses the use of the human health risk assessment model as a basis for developing ecological risk assessment (ERA). For ERA, risk to individuals is less important than the survival of the population, with the exception of endangered species. Suggests that ERA take into account the relative reproductive value of the potentially impacted…

  12. The risk assessment of environmental and human hazards

    SciTech Connect

    Paustenbach, D.J.

    1988-01-01

    A complete handbook for conducting risk assessments for environmental and occupational health hazards. This casebook, the first of its kind, presents 22 case studies, including many of the most important and thorough risk assessments ever conducted. Describes state-of-the-art approaches to assessing the low-dose response, estimating exposure, and evaluating the risks to birds and fish. Serves as a how-to-text, as well as a reference for developing high-quality environmental and human health risk assessments. Covers diverse hazards, such as waste sites; contaminated air, soil, and water; consumer products; and indoor air. All assessments are fully documented and referenced.

  13. Gasbuggy Site Assessment and Risk Evaluation

    SciTech Connect

    2011-03-01

    contaminant exposure scenario, drilling of natural gas wells near the site. The results of this risk evaluation will guide DOE's future surveillance and monitoring activities in the area to ensure that site conditions are adequately protective of human health. This evaluation is not a comprehensive risk assessment for the site; it is intended to provide assurance that DOE's monitoring approach can detect the presence of site-related contamination at levels well below those that would pose an unacceptable risk to human health.

  14. Health Risk Assessment of Irradiated Topaz

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nelson, Kevin Lyle

    1991-06-01

    Radiation-produced blue topaz, indistinguishable from natural blue topaz, is produced by several different techniques. Published information on radionuclides present, activity levels, equipment necessary to detect activated nuclides and dosimetric assessment is lacking. Using a 60 megawatt nuclear reactor, fifty-one samples of colorless topaz from Nigeria, Sri Lanka, India and Brazil were irradiated with thermal and fast neutron fluences ranging from 1.8 times 10 13 to 9.2 times 1018 neutrons cm^{-2}. Seventeen MeV electrons produced by a linear accelerator were also used to irradiate 36 colorless topaz from the same countries. Gamma ray or positron-emitting nuclides were identified using calibrated well-type NaI or germanium detectors. For germanium detectors having relative efficiencies of approximately 20 percent, an analysis time of one hour or more was needed. Geiger Mueller (G-M) detectors, scintillators (plastic and liquid), gas flow proportional counters, a ZnS detector and autoradiography techniques were used to measure charged particle activity. Isotopes produced from neutron activation included 182Ta, ^ {59}Fe, 46Sc, 51Cr, 54Mn, 124Sb, ^{32 }P, 77As, ^ {183}Ta, 77Ge, 72Ga, and ^{24 }Na. Possible nuclides produced from 17 MeV electron treatment include ^{68 }Ga, 64Cu, ^ {49}Cr, and 18F. Positive identification of the electron activated nuclides was not possible because of the short half-lives involved (<1 day). Of the possible pure beta emitters activated during neutron bombardment, 32P and 35S are the most likely to be produced. The identification of 32P was made using a three point beta absorption analysis with a G-M detector. Skin and breast cancer risk estimates were calculated for various sized topaz containing NRC exempt concentration levels. When compared to a negligible individual risk level (NIRL) of 10^{-7}, the risk of an irradiated topaz in contact with the skin or three inches from breast tissue was a small fraction of the NIRL. At a risk

  15. Prenatal Child Abuse Risk Assessment: A Preliminary Validation Study.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Weberling, Lara Cady; Forgays, Deborah Kirby; Crain-Thoreson, Catherine; Hyman, Ira

    2003-01-01

    Tested the validity of the Brigid Collins Risk Screener (BCRS) to assess child abuse risk in a sample of 49 expectant mothers. Found that at 3 months postpartum, high-risk mothers scored significantly lower on the quality of infants' physical, social, and emotional environments than moderate or low-risk mothers. Concluded that the BCRS appears to…

  16. The Process of Suicide Risk Assessment: Twelve Core Principles

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Granello, Darcy Haag

    2010-01-01

    Suicide risk assessment requires counselors to determine client risk factors, warning signs, and protective factors. The content of suicide assessment has received attention in the literature. The guiding principles of the process of suicide assessment, however, have not yet been articulated. This article contains 12 core process principles that…

  17. Issues in Violent Risk Assessment: Lessons Learned and Future Directions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kroner, Daryl G.

    2005-01-01

    Realizing that the assessment of dangerousness with a yes/no format as a poor form of violent risk assessment has been the most important lesson learned about violence in the last 20 years. Further examining (a) what outcome and (b) how the indicators of the outcome should be measured has resulted in better violent risk assessment. The most…

  18. Dynamic Attack Tree Tool for Risk Assessments

    SciTech Connect

    Black, Karl

    2012-03-13

    DATT enables interactive visualization, qualitative analysis and recording of cyber and other forms of risk. It facilitates dynamic risk-based approaches (as opposed to static compliance-based) to security and risk management in general. DATT allows decision makers to consistently prioritize risk mitigation strategies and quickly see where attention is most needed across the enterprise.

  19. Population-scale assessment endpoints in ecological risk assessment. Part 1: Reflections of stakeholder values.

    PubMed

    Landis, Wayne G

    2006-01-01

    The selection of appropriate assessment endpoints is a basic element of an ecological risk assessment, especially at regional or watershed scales. Because ecological services often are tied to specific species, the risk to populations is a critical endpoint and feature of ecological risk assessments. The first item is a discussion of the replacement of population-level risk assessment with the construct of a population-scale assessment endpoint. Next, the criteria that are currently used for assessment endpoints are reviewed and evaluated for utility in an ecological risk assessment. Following this examination, assessment endpoints from a number of regional-scale ecological risk assessments are compared. The outcome of this evaluation is that population-scale assessment endpoints are important expressions of the valued components of ecological structures. Finally, a few recommendations for the selection of assessment endpoints at a population scale are listed. PMID:16640323

  20. Falls risk assessment in older patients in hospital.

    PubMed

    Matarese, Maria; Ivziku, Dhurata

    2016-07-27

    Falls are the most frequent adverse event reported in hospitals, usually affecting older patients. All hospitals in NHS organisations develop risk prevention policies that include falls risk assessment. Falls risk assessment involves the use of risk screening tools, aimed at identifying patients at increased risk of falls, and risk assessment tools, which identify a patient's risk factors for falls. Various risk screening tools have been used in clinical practice, but no single tool is able to identify all patients at risk of falls or to accurately exclude all those who are not at risk of falls. Guidelines recommend that patients aged 65 years and over who are admitted to hospital should be considered at high risk of falls and that a multifactorial falls risk assessment should be performed. Therefore, falls risk assessment tools should be used to identify the risk factors for each inpatient aged 65 years or over, in order to determine the most appropriate care plan for falls prevention and to maximise patient mobility and independence. PMID:27461329

  1. Statistical problems in the assessment of nuclear risks

    SciTech Connect

    Easterling, R. G.

    1980-01-01

    Information on nuclear power plant risk assessment is presented concerning attitudinal problems; and methodological problems involving expert opinions, human error probabilities, nonindependent events, uncertainty analysis, and acceptable risk criteria.

  2. Breast Cancer Risk Assessment SAS Macro (Gail Model)

    Cancer.gov

    A SAS macro (commonly referred to as the Gail Model) that projects absolute risk of invasive breast cancer according to NCI’s Breast Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (BCRAT) algorithm for specified race/ethnic groups and age intervals.

  3. Reference manual for toxicity and exposure assessment and risk characterization. CERCLA Baseline Risk Assessment

    SciTech Connect

    1995-03-01

    The Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA, 1980) (CERCLA or Superfund) was enacted to provide a program for identifying and responding to releases of hazardous substances into the environment. The Superfund Amendments and Reauthorization Act (SARA, 1986) was enacted to strengthen CERCLA by requiring that site clean-ups be permanent, and that they use treatments that significantly reduce the volume, toxicity, or mobility of hazardous pollutants. The National Oil and Hazardous Substances Pollution Contingency Plan (NCP) (USEPA, 1985; USEPA, 1990) implements the CERCLA statute, presenting a process for (1) identifying and prioritizing sites requiring remediation and (2) assessing the extent of remedial action required at each site. The process includes performing two studies: a Remedial Investigation (RI) to evaluate the nature, extent, and expected consequences of site contamination, and a Feasibility Study (FS) to select an appropriate remedial alternative adequate to reduce such risks to acceptable levels. An integral part of the RI is the evaluation of human health risks posed by hazardous substance releases. This risk evaluation serves a number of purposes within the overall context of the RI/FS process, the most essential of which is to provide an understanding of ``baseline`` risks posed by a given site. Baseline risks are those risks that would exist if no remediation or institutional controls are applied at a site. This document was written to (1) guide risk assessors through the process of interpreting EPA BRA policy and (2) help risk assessors to discuss EPA policy with regulators, decision makers, and stakeholders as it relates to conditions at a particular DOE site.

  4. Risk assessment and toxicology databases for health effects assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Lu, P.Y.; Wassom, J.S.

    1990-12-31

    Scientific and technological developments bring unprecedented stress to our environment. Society has to predict the results of potential health risks from technologically based actions that may have serious, far-reaching consequences. The potential for error in making such predictions or assessment is great and multiplies with the increasing size and complexity of the problem being studied. Because of this, the availability and use of reliable data is the key to any successful forecasting effort. Scientific research and development generate new data and information. Much of the scientific data being produced daily is stored in computers for subsequent analysis. This situation provides both an invaluable resource and an enormous challenge. With large amounts of government funds being devoted to health and environmental research programs and with maintenance of our living environment at stake, we must make maximum use of the resulting data to forecast and avert catastrophic effects. Along with the readily available. The most efficient means of obtaining the data necessary for assessing the health effects of chemicals is to utilize applications include the toxicology databases and information files developed at ORNL. To make most efficient use of the data/information that has already been prepared, attention and resources should be directed toward projects that meticulously evaluate the available data/information and create specialized peer-reviewed value-added databases. Such projects include the National Library of Medicine`s Hazardous Substances Data Bank, and the U.S. Air Force Installation Restoration Toxicology Guide. These and similar value-added toxicology databases were developed at ORNL and are being maintained and updated. These databases and supporting information files, as well as some data evaluation techniques are discussed in this paper with special focus on how they are used to assess potential health effects of environmental agents. 19 refs., 5 tabs.

  5. Development of a collision risk assessment tool

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alarcon Rodriguez, J.; Martinez Fadrique, F.; Klinkrad, H.

    The avoidance of near misses and catastrophic collisions is of particular interest to manned missions and to valuable assets at densely populated altitude regions. GMV has developed a software tool for ESOC, ESA's European Space Operations Centre, which forecasts close conjunctions of selected spacecraft with over 8,000 objects included in the USSPACECOM catalog. The Collision Risk Assessment Tool (CRASS) generates collision risk estimates and collision warnings based on collision probability for a time span on the order of one week. In the framework of this activity, several collision probability algorithms have been implemented and tested. Considerable effort has also been placed in the characterisation of orbit determination errors and covariance propagation. The direct comparison of orbits of several spacecraft against a large catalog is an extremely computation intensive task. As a consequence, pre-filtering and parallel computing techniques have been proposed and used in the past as a means to reduce the computing time. However, the "smart sieve" algorithm devised and implemented by GMV retains the reliability of a "direct" method while drastically reducing the computing time. Therefore, the "smart sieve" is far more reliable than traditional pre-filtering techniques with no need for parallel computing. Besides, the method presents no constraints or singularities for any terrestrial orbit, as it is not based on simplifying assumptions. In summary, the method's main characteristics are general applicability, high reliability, and high computing efficiency. As a result of the increased efficiency, the field of application of the tool can be extended to other challenging problems. For instance, all to all comparisons of objects within a large catalog, or comparisons of a single spacecraft against a complete catalog over long periods of time can be completed in a reasonable time.

  6. Assessing human health risk in the USDA forest service

    SciTech Connect

    Hamel, D.R.

    1990-12-31

    This paper identifies the kinds of risk assessments being done by or for the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Forest Service. Summaries of data sources currently in use and the pesticide risk assessments completed by the agency or its contractors are discussed. An overview is provided of the agency`s standard operating procedures for the conduct of toxicological, ecological, environmental fate, and human health risk assessments.

  7. [Research progress on index system of regional ecological risk assessment].

    PubMed

    Meng, Ji-Jun; Zhao, Chun-Hong

    2009-04-01

    Regional ecological risk assessment (RERA) covers the assessments of multiple risk sources, receptors, and endpoints, while the selection of assessment indices is quite complicated, being a hotspot in regional environment management research. Domestic and international researches on RERA revealed that three processes in RERA are of vital, i.e., risk probability assessment measured by risk probability index, status and value assessment of ecosystem at regional scale indicated by ecological index, and vulnerability assessment of each ecosystem in a region under risk measured by vulnerability index. The main problems in the establishment of RERA index system are the strong subjectivity and poor comparability, and thus, the index system should be set up in the three key processes under the principles of objectivity, integration, hierarchy, and comparability. Due to the fact that the status and value assessment of ecosystem is most complicated, the index system should be formulated by compulsory and optional components to increase the comparability of RERA results between regions.

  8. Cancer Risk Assessment for Space Radiation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Richmond, Robert C.; Curreri, Peter A. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    is predominantly used for assessing cancer risk caused by space radiation, and that is the Japanese atomic bomb survivors. Fact #2: The atomic-bomb-survivor database, itself a remarkable achievement, contains uncertainties. These include the actual exposure to each individual, the radiation quality of that exposure, and the fact that the exposure was to acute doses of predominantly low-LET radiation, not to chronic exposures of high-LET radiation expected on long-duration interplanetary manned missions.

  9. Risk assessment of Pseudomonas aeruginosa in water.

    PubMed

    Mena, Kristina D; Gerba, Charles P

    2009-01-01

    enhances its growth. The organism is usually found in whirlpools when the chlorine concentrations are low, but it has been isolated even in the presence of 3.00 ppm residual free chlorine (Price and Ahearn 1988). Many outbreaks of folliculitis and ear infections have been reportedly associated with the use of whirlpools and hot tubs that contain P. aeruginosa (Ratnam et al. 1986). Outbreaks have also been reported from exposure to P. aeruginosa in swimming pools and water slides. Although P. aeruginosa has a reputation for being resistant to disinfection, most studies show that it does not exhibit any marked resistance to the disinfectants used to treat drinking water such as chlorine, chloramines, ozone, or iodine. One author, however, did find it to be slightly more resistant to UV disinfection than most other bacteria (Wolfe 1990). Although much has been written about biofilms in the drinking water industry, very little has been reported regarding the role of P. aeruginosa in biofilms. Tap water appears to be a significant route of transmission in hospitals, from colonization of plumbing fixtures. It is still not clear if the colonization results from the water in the distribution system, or personnel use within the hospital. Infections and colonization can be significantly reduced by placement of filters on the water taps. The oral dose of P. aeruginosa required to establish colonization in a healthy subject is high (George et al. 1989a). During dose-response studies, even when subjects (mice or humans) were colonized via ingestion, there was no evidence of disease. P. aeruginosa administered by the aerosol route at levels of 10(7) cells did cause disease symptoms in mice, and was lethal in aerosolized doses of 10(9) cells. Aerosol dose-response studies have not been undertaken with human subjects. Human health risks associated with exposure to P. aeruginosa via drinking water ingestion were estimated using a four-step risk assessment approach. The risk of colonization

  10. Seismic risk assessment of Navarre (Northern Spain)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gaspar-Escribano, J. M.; Rivas-Medina, A.; García Rodríguez, M. J.; Benito, B.; Tsige, M.; Martínez-Díaz, J. J.; Murphy, P.

    2009-04-01

    The RISNA project, financed by the Emergency Agency of Navarre (Northern Spain), aims at assessing the seismic risk of the entire region. The final goal of the project is the definition of emergency plans for future earthquakes. With this purpose, four main topics are covered: seismic hazard characterization, geotechnical classification, vulnerability assessment and damage estimation to structures and exposed population. A geographic information system is used to integrate, analyze and represent all information colleted in the different phases of the study. Expected ground motions on rock conditions with a 90% probability of non-exceedance in an exposure time of 50 years are determined following a Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) methodology that includes a logic tree with different ground motion and source zoning models. As the region under study is located in the boundary between Spain and France, an effort is required to collect and homogenise seismological data from different national and regional agencies. A new homogenised seismic catalogue, merging data from Spanish, French, Catalonian and international agencies and establishing correlations between different magnitude scales, is developed. In addition, a new seismic zoning model focused on the study area is proposed. Results show that the highest ground motions on rock conditions are expected in the northeastern part of the region, decreasing southwards. Seismic hazard can be expressed as low-to-moderate. A geotechnical classification of the entire region is developed based on surface geology, available borehole data and morphotectonic constraints. Frequency-dependent amplification factors, consistent with code values, are proposed. The northern and southern parts of the region are characterized by stiff and soft soils respectively, being the softest soils located along river valleys. Seismic hazard maps including soil effects are obtained by applying these factors to the seismic hazard maps

  11. 75 FR 82387 - Next Generation Risk Assessment Public Dialogue Conference

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-12-30

    ... robust system for chemical risk assessment by incorporating new knowledge about molecular system biology... molecular systems biology, the advent of several recent reports from the National Research Council,...

  12. A new approach to risk assessment integrating scientific evaluation and economic assessment of costs and benefits.

    PubMed

    Barnard, R C

    1996-10-01

    Traditional quantitative risk assessment based on conservative generic assumptions led to an upper-bound risk value with minimum or no consideration of costs and benefits. There is a growing consensus for a new approach to risk assessment based on a combination of scientific risk assessment and economic cost-benefit analysis. Scientific evaluation would be improved to support the economic cost-benefit analysis. The objective is to demonstrate whether the benefits justify the costs. The move in the new direction is shown by Executive Order 12866 and the Office of Management and Budget implementing document, the proposed regulatory reform legislation in Congress, the draft report of the Risk Assessment and Risk Management Commission, and the Safe Drinking Water Act Amendments of 1996 that enacted the new approach combining scientific and economic assessment of risk. This Commentary discusses these developments with particular reference to contemplated changes in scientific risk assessment to support a parallel economic risk-benefit analysis. PMID:8933625

  13. An Integrated Approach to Risk Assessment for Concurrent Design

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Meshkat, Leila; Voss, Luke; Feather, Martin; Cornford, Steve

    2005-01-01

    This paper describes an approach to risk assessment and analysis suited to the early phase, concurrent design of a space mission. The approach integrates an agile, multi-user risk collection tool, a more in-depth risk analysis tool, and repositories of risk information. A JPL developed tool, named RAP, is used for collecting expert opinions about risk from designers involved in the concurrent design of a space mission. Another in-house developed risk assessment tool, named DDP, is used for the analysis.

  14. A comparison of risk assessment techniques from qualitative to quantitative

    SciTech Connect

    Altenbach, T.J.

    1995-02-13

    Risk assessment techniques vary from purely qualitative approaches, through a regime of semi-qualitative to the more traditional quantitative. Constraints such as time, money, manpower, skills, management perceptions, risk result communication to the public, and political pressures all affect the manner in which risk assessments are carried out. This paper surveys some risk matrix techniques, examining the uses and applicability for each. Limitations and problems for each technique are presented and compared to the others. Risk matrix approaches vary from purely qualitative axis descriptions of accident frequency vs consequences, to fully quantitative axis definitions using multi-attribute utility theory to equate different types of risk from the same operation.

  15. Risk assessment of thyroid follicular cell tumors.

    PubMed Central

    Hill, R N; Crisp, T M; Hurley, P M; Rosenthal, S L; Singh, D V

    1998-01-01

    Thyroid follicular cell tumors arise in rodents from mutations, perturbations of thyroid and pituitary hormone status with increased stimulation of thyroid cell growth by thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH), or a combination of the two. The only known human thyroid carcinogen is ionizing radiation. It is not known for certain whether chemicals that affect thyroid cell growth lead to human thyroid cancer. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency applies the following science policy positions: 1) chemically induced rodent thyroid tumors are presumed to be relevant to humans; 2) when interspecies information is lacking, the default is to assume comparable carcinogenic sensitivity in rodents and humans; 3) adverse rodent noncancer thyroid effects due to chemically induced thyroid-pituitary disruption are presumed to be relevant to humans; 4) linear dose-response considerations are applied to thyroid cancer induced by chemical substances that either do not disrupt thyroid functioning or lack mode of action information; 5) nonlinear thyroid cancer dose-response considerations are applied to chemicals that reduce thyroid hormone levels, increase TSH and thyroid cell division, and are judged to lack mutagenic activity; and 6) nonlinear considerations may be applied in thyroid cancer dose-response assessments on a case-by-case basis for chemicals that disrupt thyroid-pituitary functioning and demonstrate some mutagenic activity. Required data for risk assessment purposes is mode of action information on mutagenicity, increases in follicular cell growth (cell size and number) and thyroid gland weight, thyroid-pituitary hormones, site of action, correlations between doses producing thyroid effects and cancer, and reversibility of effects when dosing ceases. Images Figure 1 Figure 2 Figure 3 PMID:9681971

  16. Risk Assessment During the 2002 Etnean Eruption

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rongo, R.; Crisci, G. M.

    2003-04-01

    A two-dimensional cellular automata model for the simulation of lava flows, has been in the past validated on real cases of Etnean eruptions. Its latest release, SCIARA-hex1 was applied on the 1991--93 Etnean eruption in the validation phase. Lava flows can be viewed as a dynamic system based on local interactions with discrete time and space, where space is represented by hexagonal cells, whose specification (state) describes the characteristics (substates) of the corresponding piece of space. The substates are: altitude, lava thickness, temperature, lava flows. SCIARA-hex1 was applied during the Etnean crisis in the summer of 2001, when a new eruption threatened the town of Nicolosi. The real-case study was performed in collaboration with the Italian National Institute of Geophysics and Vulcanology of Catania, Sicily. A new real-time application of SCIARA has been the risk assessment for the new event which occurred in the autumn of 2002. Two major eruptions have charactersied this event. The first, started on the NE flank of the volcano, with lava generated by a fracture between 2500 ma.s.l and 2350 ma.s.l., near the 1809 fracture and point towards the town of Linguaglossa. The second one has interested the SW flank, with an emission point near 2700 ma.s.l., between the SE main crater and La Montagnola and flowing over the 2001 lava field. The simulation results have been consistent with the real lava flow paths, despite poor morphology data due to the presence of solidified magma from the 2001 event. SCIARA has proved to be a reliable and flexible tool for forecasting lava flow paths and for assessing hazard for this event, besides the development of real-time scenarios.

  17. Risk Assessment and Risk Management in Offenders with Intellectual Disabilities: Are We There Yet?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pouls, Claudia; Jeandarme, Inge

    2015-01-01

    Research on risk assessment and risk management in offenders with intellectual disabilities (OIDs), although far behind compared to the mainstream offender literature, is now expanding. The current review provides an overview of the predictive value of risk assessment and treatment outcome monitoring tools developed for both mainstream forensic…

  18. Benzene and leukemia. An epidemiologic risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Rinsky, R.A.; Smith, A.B.; Hornung, R.; Filloon, T.G.; Young, R.J.; Okun, A.H.; Landrigan, P.J.

    1987-04-23

    To assess quantitatively the association between benzene exposure and leukemia, we examined the mortality rate of a cohort with occupational exposure to benzene. Cumulative exposure for each cohort member was estimated from historical air-sampling data and, when no sampling data existed, from interpolation on the basis of existing data. The overall standardized mortality ratio (a measure of relative risk multiplied by 100) for leukemia was 337 (95 percent confidence interval, 154 to 641), and that for multiple myeloma was 409 (95 percent confidence interval, 110 to 1047). With stratification according to levels of cumulative exposure, the standardized mortality ratios for leukemia increased from 109 to 322, 1186, and 6637 with increases in cumulative benzene exposure from less than 40 parts per million-years (ppm-years), to 40 to 199, 200 to 399, and 400 or more, respectively. A cumulative benzene exposure of 400 ppm-years is equivalent to a mean annual exposure of 10 ppm over a 40-year working lifetime; 10 ppm is the currently enforceable standard in the United States for occupational exposure to benzene. To examine the shape of the exposure-response relation, we performed a conditional logistic-regression analysis, in which 10 controls were matched to each cohort member with leukemia. From this model, it can be calculated that protection from benzene-induced leukemia would increase exponentially with any reduction in the permissible exposure limit.

  19. Risk assessment compatible fire models (RACFMs)

    SciTech Connect

    Lopez, A.R.; Gritzo, L.A.; Sherman, M.P.

    1998-07-01

    A suite of Probabilistic Risk Assessment Compatible Fire Models (RACFMs) has been developed to represent the hazard posed by a pool fire to weapon systems transported on the B52-H aircraft. These models represent both stand-off (i.e., the weapon system is outside of the flame zone but exposed to the radiant heat load from fire) and fully-engulfing scenarios (i.e., the object is fully covered by flames). The approach taken in developing the RACFMs for both scenarios was to consolidate, reconcile, and apply data and knowledge from all available resources including: data and correlations from the literature, data from an extensive full-scale fire test program at the Naval Air Warfare Center (NAWC) at China Lake, and results from a fire field model (VULCAN). In the past, a single, effective temperature, T{sub f}, was used to represent the fire. The heat flux to an object exposed to a fire was estimated using the relationship for black body radiation, {sigma}T{sub f}{sup 4}. Significant improvements have been made by employing the present approach which accounts for the presence of temperature distributions in fully-engulfing fires, and uses best available correlations to estimate heat fluxes in stand-off scenarios.

  20. Assessing the health risks of aluminum.

    PubMed

    Orme, J; Ohanian, E V

    1990-03-01

    Aluminum is a ubiquitous substance with over 4,000 uses. Aluminum, as aluminum sulfate, is commonly used in the United States as a coagulant in the treatment of drinking water. For many years aluminum was not considered to be toxic to humans. However, reports associating aluminum with several skeletal and neurological disorders in humans suggest that exposure to aluminum may pose a health hazard. In 1983 the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announced plans to regulate a number of substances, including aluminum, in drinking water. Aluminum was considered because of its occurrence and apparent toxicity. Upon further evaluation of the health effects data the EPA proposed not to regulate aluminum as a result of the uncertainty of the toxicity of ingested aluminum. Putative causal associations between aluminum exposure and neurological disorders such as Alzheimer's disease have yet to be substantiated. Although several issues regarding the toxicity of ingested aluminum are unresolved, aluminum has been specified in the 1986 Amendments to the Safe Drinking Water Act, as one of 83 substances in drinking water to be regulated by 1989. Additional data are needed before the potential risk of aluminum can be assessed; therefore the EPA has deferred possible regulation until 1991. PMID:24202565

  1. Photogrammetry in Experiments for Hydrogeological Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barazzetti, L.; Scaioni, M.; Feng, T.; Qiao, G.; Lu, P.; Tong, X.; Li, R.

    2013-01-01

    The construction of scaled-down simulation platforms is largely used to support investigations for the assessment of hydrological risk. Achieved outcomes can be integrated and assimilated to numerical analyses for the study of unstable slope collapse, debris transport, and hydrological modeling in general. During design of such simulation platforms, a relevant role has to be given to the spatial sensor network (SSN) to deploy, which is in charge of collecting geo-referenced, quantitative information during experiments. Photogrammetry (including 3D imaging sensors) can play an important role in SSN owing to its capability of collecting 2D images and 3D point clouds data covering wide surfaces without any contact. Different kinds of metric measurements can be then extracted from datasets. The aim of this paper is to give an overview and some examples on the potential of photogrammetry in hydrogeological experiments. After a general introduction on a few preliminary issues (sensors, calibration, ground reference, usage of imaging or ranging sensors), potential applications are classified into 2D and 3D categories. Examples are focused on a scaled-down landslide simulation platform developed at Tongji University (Shanghai, P. R. China).

  2. Advancing environmental risk assessment for transgenic biofeedstock crops.

    PubMed

    Wolt, Jeffrey D

    2009-01-01

    Transgenic modification of plants is a key enabling technology for developing sustainable biofeedstocks for biofuels production. Regulatory decisions and the wider acceptance and development of transgenic biofeedstock crops are considered from the context of science-based risk assessment. The risk assessment paradigm for transgenic biofeedstock crops is fundamentally no different from that of current generation transgenic crops, except that the focus of the assessment must consider the unique attributes of a given biofeedstock crop and its environmental release. For currently envisioned biofeedstock crops, particular emphasis in risk assessment will be given to characterization of altered metabolic profiles and their implications relative to non-target environmental effects and food safety; weediness and invasiveness when plants are modified for abiotic stress tolerance or are domesticated; and aggregate risk when plants are platforms for multi-product production. Robust risk assessments for transgenic biofeedstock crops are case-specific, initiated through problem formulation, and use tiered approaches for risk characterization. PMID:19883509

  3. Advancing environmental risk assessment for transgenic biofeedstock crops

    PubMed Central

    Wolt, Jeffrey D

    2009-01-01

    Transgenic modification of plants is a key enabling technology for developing sustainable biofeedstocks for biofuels production. Regulatory decisions and the wider acceptance and development of transgenic biofeedstock crops are considered from the context of science-based risk assessment. The risk assessment paradigm for transgenic biofeedstock crops is fundamentally no different from that of current generation transgenic crops, except that the focus of the assessment must consider the unique attributes of a given biofeedstock crop and its environmental release. For currently envisioned biofeedstock crops, particular emphasis in risk assessment will be given to characterization of altered metabolic profiles and their implications relative to non-target environmental effects and food safety; weediness and invasiveness when plants are modified for abiotic stress tolerance or are domesticated; and aggregate risk when plants are platforms for multi-product production. Robust risk assessments for transgenic biofeedstock crops are case-specific, initiated through problem formulation, and use tiered approaches for risk characterization. PMID:19883509

  4. Analysis of Alternatives for Risk Assessment Methodologies and Tools

    SciTech Connect

    Nachtigal, Noel M.; Fruetel, Julia A.; Gleason, Nathaniel J.; Helms, Jovana; Imbro, Dennis Raymond; Sumner, Matthew C.

    2013-10-01

    The purpose of this document is to provide a basic overview and understanding of risk assessment methodologies and tools from the literature and to assess the suitability of these methodologies and tools for cyber risk assessment. Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) performed this review in support of risk modeling activities performed for the Stakeholder Engagement and Cyber Infrastructure Resilience (SECIR) division of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Office of Cybersecurity and Communications (CS&C). The set of methodologies and tools covered in this document is not intended to be exhaustive; instead, it focuses on those that are commonly used in the risk assessment community. The classification of methodologies and tools was performed by a group of analysts with experience in risk analysis and cybersecurity, and the resulting analysis of alternatives has been tailored to address the needs of a cyber risk assessment.

  5. Dangerousness and risk assessment: the state of the art.

    PubMed

    Bauer, Arie; Rosca, Paula; Khawalled, Razak; Gruzniewski, Adrian; Grinshpoon, Alex

    2003-01-01

    Risk or dangerousness is an issue which burdens the minds of all mental health and law enforcement professionals. Researchers have attempted to define its extent and constituent elements and to predict and assess it. Risk assessment is a complex task, influenced by the interaction of many variables, such as previous pattern of violence, biological, sociological and psychological factors, divided into facilitating and inhibiting factors. In our paper we discuss the theoretical concepts linked with dangerousness prediction and assessment, and then review the "first" and "second" generations of literature on dangerousness and risk assessment, including the actuarial instruments. We then present the current trends in the field, concentrating on the correlation between dangerousness and mental disorders, dangerousness analysis and risk management, a wider concept including prevention, treatment and communication of risk. Although great progress has been made in this field, there are still many unresolved issues, among them the development of valid instruments for the assessment of risk.

  6. Advancing environmental risk assessment for transgenic biofeedstock crops.

    PubMed

    Wolt, Jeffrey D

    2009-01-01

    Transgenic modification of plants is a key enabling technology for developing sustainable biofeedstocks for biofuels production. Regulatory decisions and the wider acceptance and development of transgenic biofeedstock crops are considered from the context of science-based risk assessment. The risk assessment paradigm for transgenic biofeedstock crops is fundamentally no different from that of current generation transgenic crops, except that the focus of the assessment must consider the unique attributes of a given biofeedstock crop and its environmental release. For currently envisioned biofeedstock crops, particular emphasis in risk assessment will be given to characterization of altered metabolic profiles and their implications relative to non-target environmental effects and food safety; weediness and invasiveness when plants are modified for abiotic stress tolerance or are domesticated; and aggregate risk when plants are platforms for multi-product production. Robust risk assessments for transgenic biofeedstock crops are case-specific, initiated through problem formulation, and use tiered approaches for risk characterization.

  7. Landscape ecological risk assessment study in arid land

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gong, Lu; Amut, Aniwaer; Shi, Qingdong; Wang, Gary Z.

    2007-09-01

    The ecosystem risk assessment is an essential decision making system for predicting the reconstruction and recovery of a damaged ecosystem after intensive mankind activities. The sustainability of environment and resources of the lake ecosystem in arid districts have been paid close attention to by international communities as well as numerous experts and scholars. The ecological risk assessment offered a scientific foundation for making the decision and execution of ecological risk management. Bosten Lake, the largest inland freshwater lake in China, is the main water source of the industrial and agricultural production as well as the local residence in Yanqi basin, Kuara city and Yuri County in the southern Xinjiang. Bosten Lake also provides a direct water source for emergency transportation in the Lower Reaches of Tarim River. However, with the intensive utilizations of water and soil resources, the environmental condition in the Bosten Lake has become more and more serious. In this study, the theory and method of landscape ecological risk assessment has been practiced using 3S technologies combined with the frontier theory of landscape ecology. Defining the mainly risk resource including flood, drought, water pollution and rich nutrition of water has been evaluated based on the ecosystem risk assessment system. The main process includes five stages: regional natural resources analysis, risk receptor selection, risk sources evaluation, exposure and hazard analysis, and integrated risk assessment. Based on the risk assessment results, the environmental risk management countermeasure has been determined.

  8. Managing Risk Assessment in Science Departments.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Forlin, Peter; Forlin, Chris

    1997-01-01

    Describes a health-and-safety risk-management audit in four Queensland, Australia high schools. One major outcome of this research project is the development of a comprehensive risk-management policy in compliance with the law. Other outcomes include the preparation of a professional-development package in risk-management policy for use as a…

  9. Embedding climate change risk assessment within a governance context

    SciTech Connect

    Preston, Benjamin L

    2011-01-01

    Climate change adaptation is increasingly being framed in the context of climate risk management. This has contributed to the proliferation of climate change vulnerability and/or risk assessments as means of supporting institutional decision-making regarding adaptation policies and measures. To date, however, little consideration has been given to how such assessment projects and programs interact with governance systems to facilitate or hinder the implementation of adaptive responses. An examination of recent case studies involving Australian local governments reveals two key linkages between risk assessment and the governance of adaptation. First, governance systems influence how risk assessment processes are conducted, by whom they are conducted, and whom they are meant to inform. Australia s governance system emphasizes evidence-based decision-making that reinforces a knowledge deficit model of decision support. Assessments are often carried out by external experts on behalf of local government, with limited participation by relevant stakeholders and/or civil society. Second, governance systems influence the extent to which the outputs from risk assessment activities are translated into adaptive responses and outcomes. Technical information regarding risk is often stranded by institutional barriers to adaptation including poor uptake of information, competition on the policy agenda, and lack of sufficient entitlements. Yet, risk assessments can assist in bringing such barriers to the surface, where they can be debated and resolved. In fact, well-designed risk assessments can contribute to multi-loop learning by institutions, and that reflexive problem orientation may be one of the more valuable benefits of assessment.

  10. Evaluating the Risk of Child Abuse: The Child Abuse Risk Assessment Scale (CARAS)

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chan, Ko Ling

    2012-01-01

    The present study developed the Child Abuse Risk Assessment Scale (CARAS), an actuarial instrument for the assessment of the risk of physical child abuse. Data of 2,363 Chinese parents (47.7% male) living in Hong Kong were used in the analyses. Participants were individually interviewed with a questionnaire assessing their perpetration of child…

  11. Seismic vulnerability assessments in risk analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Frolova, Nina; Larionov, Valery; Bonnin, Jean; Ugarov, Alexander

    2013-04-01

    The assessment of seismic vulnerability is a critical issue within natural and technological risk analysis. In general, there are three common types of methods used for development of vulnerability functions of different elements at risk: empirical, analytical and expert estimations. The paper addresses the empirical methods for seismic vulnerability estimation for residential buildings and industrial facilities. The results of engineering analysis of past earthquake consequences, as well as the statistical data on buildings behavior during strong earthquakes presented in the different seismic intensity scales, are used to verify the regional parameters of mathematical models in order to simulate physical and economic vulnerability for different building types classified according to seismic scale MMSK-86. Verified procedure has been used to estimate the physical and economic vulnerability of buildings and constructions against earthquakes for the Northern Caucasus Federal region of the Russian Federation and Krasnodar area, which are characterized by rather high level of seismic activity and high population density. In order to estimate expected damage states to buildings and constructions in the case of the earthquakes according to the OSR-97B (return period T=1,000 years) within big cities and towns, they were divided into unit sites and their coordinates were presented as dots located in the centers of unit sites. Then the indexes obtained for each unit site were summed up. The maps of physical vulnerability zoning for Northern Caucasus Federal region of the Russian Federation and Krasnodar area includes two elements: percent of different damage states for settlements with number of inhabitants less than 1,000 and vulnerability for cities and towns with number of inhabitants more than 1,000. The hypsometric scale is used to represent both elements on the maps. Taking into account the size of oil pipe line systems located in the highly active seismic zones in

  12. The Maricopa Integrated Risk Assessment Project: A New Way of Looking at Risk

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Unks, Ruth A.; Thor, Linda

    2008-01-01

    This article reviews the Maricopa Integrated Risk Assessment (MIRA) project and discusses its challenges and successes. Strategies and resources are offered for assisting community college administrators, faculty, and staff to successfully implement enterprise risk management at their institutions.

  13. Use of risk quotient and probabilistic approaches to assess risks of pesticides to birds

    EPA Science Inventory

    When conducting ecological risk assessments for pesticides, the United States Environmental Protection Agency typically relies upon the risk quotient (RQ). This approach is intended to be conservative in nature, making assumptions related to exposure and effects that are intended...

  14. Assessment of the risk of transporting liquid chlorine by rail

    SciTech Connect

    Andrews, W.B.

    1980-03-01

    This report presents the risk of shipping liquid chlorine by rail. While chlorine is not an energy material, there are several benefits to studying chlorine transportation risks. First, chlorine, like energy materials, is widely used as a feedstock to industry. Second, it is the major purification agent in municipal water treatment systems and therefore, provides direct benefits to the public. Finally, other risk assessments have been completed for liquid chlorine shipments in the US and Europe, which provide a basis for comparison with this study. None of the previous PNL energy material risk assessments have had other studies for comparison. For these reasons, it was felt that a risk assessment of chlorine transportation by rail could provide information on chlorine risk levels, identify ways to reduce these risks and use previous studies on chlorine risks to assess the strengths and weaknesses of the PNL risk assessment methodology. The risk assessment methodology used in this study is summarized. The methodology is presented in the form of a risk assessment model which is constructed for ease of periodic updating of the data base so that the risk may be reevaluated as additional data become available. The report is sectioned to correspond to specific analysis steps identified in the model. The transport system and accident environment are described. The response of the transport system to accident environments is described. Release sequences are postulated and evaluated to determine both the likelihood and possible consequences of a release. Supportive data and analyses are given in the appendices. The risk assessment results are related to the year 1985 to allow a direct comparison with other reports in this series.

  15. Flood Risk Assessments of Architectural Heritage - Case of Changgyeonggung Palace

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Hyosang; Kim, Ji-sung; Lee, Ho-jin

    2014-05-01

    The risk of natural disasters such as flood and earthquake has increased due to recent extreme weather events. Therefore, the necessity of the risk management system to protect architectural properties, a cultural heritage of humanity, from natural disasters has been consistently felt. The solutions for managing flood risk focusing on architectural heritage are suggested and applied to protect Changgyeonggung Palace, a major palace heritage in Seoul. After the probable rainfall scenario for risk assessment (frequency: 100 years, 200 years, and 500 years) and the scenario of a probable maximum precipitation (PMP) are made and a previous rainfall event (from July 26th to 28th in 2011) is identified, they are used for the model (HEC-HMS, SWMM) to assess flood risk of certain areas covering Changgyeonggung Palace to do flood amount. Such flood amount makes it possible to identify inundation risks based on GIS models to assess flood risk of individual architectural heritage. The results of assessing such risk are used to establish the disaster risk management system that managers of architectural properties can utilize. According to the results of assessing flood risk of Changgyeonggung Palace, inundation occurs near outlets of Changgyeonggung Palace and sections of river channel for all scenarios of flood risk but the inundation risk of major architectural properties was estimated low. The methods for assessing flood risk of architectural heritage proposed in this study and the risk management system for Changgyeonggung Palace using the methods show thorough solutions for flood risk management and the possibility of using the solutions seems high. A comprehensive management system for architectural heritage will be established in the future through the review on diverse factors for disasters.

  16. HANFORD SAFETY ANALYSIS & RISK ASSESSMENT HANDBOOK (SARAH)

    SciTech Connect

    EVANS, C B

    2004-12-21

    The purpose of the Hanford Safety Analysis and Risk Assessment Handbook (SARAH) is to support the development of safety basis documentation for Hazard Category 2 and 3 (HC-2 and 3) U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear facilities to meet the requirements of 10 CFR 830, ''Nuclear Safety Management''. Subpart B, ''Safety Basis Requirements.'' Consistent with DOE-STD-3009-94, Change Notice 2, ''Preparation Guide for U.S. Department of Energy Nonreactor Nuclear Facility Documented Safety Analyses'' (STD-3009), and DOE-STD-3011-2002, ''Guidance for Preparation of Basis for Interim Operation (BIO) Documents'' (STD-3011), the Hanford SARAH describes methodology for performing a safety analysis leading to development of a Documented Safety Analysis (DSA) and derivation of Technical Safety Requirements (TSR), and provides the information necessary to ensure a consistently rigorous approach that meets DOE expectations. The DSA and TSR documents, together with the DOE-issued Safety Evaluation Report (SER), are the basic components of facility safety basis documentation. For HC-2 or 3 nuclear facilities in long-term surveillance and maintenance (S&M), for decommissioning activities, where source term has been eliminated to the point that only low-level, residual fixed contamination is present, or for environmental remediation activities outside of a facility structure, DOE-STD-1120-98, ''Integration of Environment, Safety, and Health into Facility Disposition Activities'' (STD-1120), may serve as the basis for the DSA. HC-2 and 3 environmental remediation sites also are subject to the hazard analysis methodologies of this standard.

  17. Structural equation modeling in environmental risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Buncher, C R; Succop, P A; Dietrich, K N

    1991-01-01

    Environmental epidemiology requires effective models that take individual observations of environmental factors and connect them into meaningful patterns. Single-factor relationships have given way to multivariable analyses; simple additive models have been augmented by multiplicative (logistic) models. Each of these steps has produced greater enlightenment and understanding. Models that allow for factors causing outputs that can affect later outputs with putative causation working at several different time points (e.g., linkage) are not commonly used in the environmental literature. Structural equation models are a class of covariance structure models that have been used extensively in economics/business and social science but are still little used in the realm of biostatistics. Path analysis in genetic studies is one simplified form of this class of models. We have been using these models in a study of the health and development of infants who have been exposed to lead in utero and in the postnatal home environment. These models require as input the directionality of the relationship and then produce fitted models for multiple inputs causing each factor and the opportunity to have outputs serve as input variables into the next phase of the simultaneously fitted model. Some examples of these models from our research are presented to increase familiarity with this class of models. Use of these models can provide insight into the effect of changing an environmental factor when assessing risk. The usual cautions concerning believing a model, believing causation has been proven, and the assumptions that are required for each model are operative. PMID:2050063

  18. The Current Status of Graduate Training in Suicide Risk Assessment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Liebling-Boccio, Dana E.; Jennings, Heather R.

    2013-01-01

    Directors and coordinators (n = 75) of graduate programs in school psychology approved by the National Association of School Psychologists (NASP) were surveyed regarding their training practices in suicide risk assessment. Respondents viewed the assessment of suicide risk as an important part of graduate instruction, and most believed that…

  19. Assessing Fieldwork Risk for Undergraduate Projects. Directions: JGHE Study Guide.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Higgitt, David; Bullard, Jo

    1999-01-01

    Discusses the five steps involved in conducting risk assessment for fieldwork using two examples of typical student projects: (1) identity the hazards; (2) identify who might be harmed; (3) evaluate the risks; (4) record the findings; and (5) review the assessment periodically. Addresses expeditions and work overseas. (CMK)

  20. CHILDREN AS A SENSITIVE SUBPOPULATION FOR THE RISK ASSESSMENT PROCESS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Children as a sensitive subpopulation for the risk assessment process
    Abstract
    For cancer risk assessment purposes, it is necessary to consider how to incorporate sensitive subpopulations into the process to ensure that they are appropriately protected. Children represent o...

  1. Systems Biology & Mode of Action Based Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    The application of systems biology for risk assessment of environmental chemicals is a national extension of its use in pharmaceutical research. The basis for this is the concept of a key event network that builds on existing mode of action frameworks for risk assessment. The a...

  2. MINI REVIEW - EPIGENETIC PROCESSES AND CANCER RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    Abstract: The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Assessment encourages the use of mechanistic data in the assessment of human cancer risk at low (environmental) exposure levels. The key events that define a particular mode of action for tumor fo...

  3. A CRITIQUE OF THE USE OF HORMESIS IN RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    A critique of the use of hormesis in risk assessment.

    Kitchin, KT; and Drane, Wanzer

    Summary:
    There are severe problems and limitations with the use of hormesis as the principal dose-response default assumption in risk assessment. These problems and limitations i...

  4. Regulating by the Numbers: Probabilistic Risk Assessment and Nuclear Power.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nichols, Elizabeth; Wildavsky, Aaron

    1988-01-01

    Probabilistic risk assessment has been promoted within the Nuclear Regulatory Commission as a means of judging risk to the public and of determining regulatory measures. Interviews with engineers and other technically trained personnel reveal the difficulties created by expectations that this form of assessment should be applied. (TJH)

  5. 28 CFR 105.14 - Risk assessment for candidates.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 28 Judicial Administration 2 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Risk assessment for candidates. 105.14 Section 105.14 Judicial Administration DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE (CONTINUED) CRIMINAL HISTORY BACKGROUND CHECKS Aviation Training for Aliens and Other Designated Individuals § 105.14 Risk assessment...

  6. 28 CFR 105.14 - Risk assessment for candidates.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 28 Judicial Administration 2 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Risk assessment for candidates. 105.14 Section 105.14 Judicial Administration DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE (CONTINUED) CRIMINAL HISTORY BACKGROUND CHECKS Aviation Training for Aliens and Other Designated Individuals § 105.14 Risk assessment...

  7. 28 CFR 105.14 - Risk assessment for candidates.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... 28 Judicial Administration 2 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Risk assessment for candidates. 105.14 Section 105.14 Judicial Administration DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE (CONTINUED) CRIMINAL HISTORY BACKGROUND CHECKS Aviation Training for Aliens and Other Designated Individuals § 105.14 Risk assessment...

  8. Selection of Developmental Assessment Techniques for Infants at Risk.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Parmelee, Arthur H.; And Others

    This report presents a cumulative risk score system designed to identify high-risk infants through multiple assessments over an extended period of time. The system scores prenatal, natal, and neonatal biological events and neonatal behavioral performance in an additive fashion. Infants are assessed in the first month of life to distinguish those…

  9. Are Risk Assessments of a Terrorist Attack Coherent?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mandel, David R.

    2005-01-01

    Four experiments examined 3 types of violations of coherence criteria in risk assessments of a terrorist attack. First, the requirement that extensionally equivalent descriptions be assigned the same probability (i.e., additivity) was violated. Unpacking descriptions of an attack into subtypes led to an increase in assessed risk. Second,…

  10. Current Challenges in Neurotoxicity Risk Assessment [Poster 2015

    EPA Science Inventory

    Neurotoxicity risk assessment must continue to evolve in parallel with advances in basic research. Along with this evolution is an expansion in the scope of neurotoxicity assessments of environmental health risks. Examples of this expansion include an increasing emphasis on compl...

  11. INTERPRETING SPONTANEOUS RENAL LESIONS IN SAFETY AND RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    Interpreting Spontaneous Renal Lesions in Safety and Risk Assessment
    Douglas C. Wolf, D.V.M., Ph.D.

    Introduction

    Risk assessment is a process whereby the potential adverse health effects from exposure to a xenobiotic are predicted after evaluation of the availab...

  12. Status and future of Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment in China

    PubMed Central

    Dong, Q.L.; Barker, G.C.; Gorris, L.G.M.; Tian, M.S.; Song, X.Y.; Malakar, P.K.

    2015-01-01

    Since the implementation of the Food Safety Law of the People's Republic of China in 2009 use of Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (QMRA) has increased. QMRA is used to assess the risk posed to consumers by pathogenic bacteria which cause the majority of foodborne outbreaks in China. This review analyses the progress of QMRA research in China from 2000 to 2013 and discusses 3 possible improvements for the future. These improvements include planning and scoping to initiate QMRA, effectiveness of microbial risk assessment utility for risk management decision making, and application of QMRA to establish appropriate Food Safety Objectives. PMID:26089594

  13. Using tsunami deposits to improve assessment of tsunami risk

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jaffe, B.E.; Gelfenbaum, G.; ,

    2002-01-01

    In many places in the world the written record of tsunamis is too short to accurately assess the risk of tsunamis. Sedimentary deposits left by tsunamis can be used to extend the record of tsunamis to improve risk assessment. The two primary factors in tsunami risk, tsunami frequency and magnitude, can be addressed through field and modeling studies of tsunami deposits. Recent advances in identification of tsunami deposits and in tsunami sedimentation modeling increase the utility of using tsunami deposits to improve assessment of tsunami risk.

  14. SMALL POPULATIONS REQUIRE SPECIFIC MODELING APPROACHES FOR ASSESSING RISK

    EPA Science Inventory

    All populations face non-zero risks of extinction. However, the risks for small populations, and therefore the modeling approaches necessary to predict them, are different from those of large populations. These differences are currently hindering assessment of risk to small pop...

  15. Scientific Opinion on Risk Assessment of Synthetic Biology.

    PubMed

    Epstein, Michelle M; Vermeire, Theo

    2016-08-01

    In 2013, three Scientific Committees of the European Commission (EC) drafted Scientific Opinions on synthetic biology that provide an operational definition and address risk assessment methodology, safety aspects, environmental risks, knowledge gaps, and research priorities. These Opinions contribute to the international discussions on the risk governance for synthetic biology developments. PMID:27234301

  16. Scientific Opinion on Risk Assessment of Synthetic Biology.

    PubMed

    Epstein, Michelle M; Vermeire, Theo

    2016-08-01

    In 2013, three Scientific Committees of the European Commission (EC) drafted Scientific Opinions on synthetic biology that provide an operational definition and address risk assessment methodology, safety aspects, environmental risks, knowledge gaps, and research priorities. These Opinions contribute to the international discussions on the risk governance for synthetic biology developments.

  17. Assessing risk from a stakeholder perspective

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cooper, L. P.

    2003-01-01

    Planetary exploration missions are subject to a vast array of interpretations of 'success' based on the concerns of multiple stakeholder groups. While project risk management generally focuses on issues of cost/schedule constraints or reliability issues, a broader interpretation of 'risk' as it applies to stakeholders such as sponsors (e.g., NASA), the public at large, the scientific community, the home organization, and the project team itself can provide important insights into the full spectrum of risk that needs to be managed. This paper presents a stakeholder view of risk which is divided into failure, not-a-failure, success, and stunning-success zones. Using the Mars Pathfinder mission as an example, an alternative interpretation of the risks to that mission is presented from the view of key stakeholders. The implications of the stakeholder perspective to project risk management are addressed.

  18. Hanford Site baseline risk assessment methodology. Revision 2

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1993-03-01

    This methodology has been developed to prepare human health and environmental evaluations of risk as part of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act remedial investigations (RIs) and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act facility investigations (FIs) performed at the Hanford Site pursuant to the Hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order referred to as the Tri-Party Agreement. Development of the methodology has been undertaken so that Hanford Site risk assessments are consistent with current regulations and guidance, while providing direction on flexible, ambiguous, or undefined aspects of the guidance. The methodology identifies Site-specific risk assessment considerations and integrates them with approaches for evaluating human and environmental risk that can be factored into the risk assessment program supporting the Hanford Site cleanup mission. Consequently, the methodology will enhance the preparation and review of individual risk assessments at the Hanford Site.

  19. Cavity degradation risk insurance assessment. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Hampson, C.; Neill, P.; de Bivort, L.

    1980-01-01

    This study examined the risks and risk management issues involved with the implementation by electric power utilities of compressed air energy storage and underground pumped hydro storage systems. The results are listed in terms of relative risks for the construction and operation of these systems in different geologic deposits, with varying amounts of pressurization, with natural or man-made disasters in the vicinity of the storage equipment, and with different modes of operating the facilities. (LCL)

  20. Risk assessment technique for evaluating research laboratories

    SciTech Connect

    Bolander, T.W.; Meale, B.M.; Eide, S.A.

    1992-01-01

    A technique has been developed to evaluate research laboratories according to risk, where risk is defined as the product of frequency and consequence. This technique was used to evaluate several laboratories at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory under the direction of the Department of Energy, Idaho Field Office to assist in the risk management of the Science and Technology Department laboratories. With this technique, laboratories can be compared according to risk, and management can use the results to make cost effective decisions associated with the operation of the facility.

  1. Risk assessment technique for evaluating research laboratories

    SciTech Connect

    Bolander, T.W.; Meale, B.M.; Eide, S.A.

    1992-09-01

    A technique has been developed to evaluate research laboratories according to risk, where risk is defined as the product of frequency and consequence. This technique was used to evaluate several laboratories at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory under the direction of the Department of Energy, Idaho Field Office to assist in the risk management of the Science and Technology Department laboratories. With this technique, laboratories can be compared according to risk, and management can use the results to make cost effective decisions associated with the operation of the facility.

  2. Quantitative risk assessment: an emerging tool for emerging foodborne pathogens.

    PubMed Central

    Lammerding, A. M.; Paoli, G. M.

    1997-01-01

    New challenges to the safety of the food supply require new strategies for evaluating and managing food safety risks. Changes in pathogens, food preparation, distribution, and consumption, and population immunity have the potential to adversely affect human health. Risk assessment offers a framework for predicting the impact of changes and trends on the provision of safe food. Risk assessment models facilitate the evaluation of active or passive changes in how foods are produced, processed, distributed, and consumed. PMID:9366601

  3. HVAC fault tree analysis for WIPP integrated risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Kirby, P.; Iacovino, J.

    1990-01-01

    In order to evaluate the public health risk from operation of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) due to potential radioactive releases, a probabilistic risk assessment of waste handling operations was conducted. One major aspect of this risk assessment involved fault tree analysis of the plant heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems, which comprise the final barrier between waste handling operations and the environment. 1 refs., 1 tab.

  4. A method for assessing the risks of pipeline operations

    SciTech Connect

    Gloven, M.P.

    1996-09-01

    This paper presents a method for assessing the risks of hazardous liquid and natural gas pipeline systems. The method assesses risk by measuring historical and projected performance data against selected benchmarks, which if exceeded, may indicate that the pipeline may have a greater potential for failure or adverse consequence at certain points. Once these areas are determined, plans are developed and implemented to minimize risk.

  5. Assessment of weather risk on chestnut production

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pereira, M. G.; Gomes-Laranjo, J.; Caramelo, L.

    2009-04-01

    to March) precipitation, the number of days with maximum temperature between 24°C and 28°C and the number of days of May with minimum temperature below 0°C is able to model the chestnut productivity with r2 equal to 0.79. It should be pointed out that the relation between weather/climate and chestnut productivity may change over time. Finally, it is important to express objectively the effects of temperature and precipitation extremes on the chestnut productivity since temperature is one of the global circulation models predicted variables with less uncertainty. With these tools will be possible to assess the weather related risk on chestnut production as well as infer about evolution of the adequate conditions to the chestnut trees in the actual plantations and about the expansion of this specie. Bounous, G. (2002) "Il castagno" [Chestnut.] - Edagricole, Bologna. [In Ital.] Gomes-Laranjo, J., Coutinho, J.P., Ferreira-Cardoso, J., Pimentel-Pereira, M., Ramos, C., Torres-Pereira, J.(2005) "Assessment to a new concept of chestnut orchard management in vegetative wall.". Acta Hort. 693: 707-712. Gomes-Laranjo, J.C.E., Peixoto, F., Wong Fong Sang, H.W., Torres-Pereira, J.M.G.(2006) "Study of the temperature effect in three chestnut (Castanea sativa Mill.) cultivars' behavior". J. Plant Physiol. 163: 945-955.

  6. Hurricane flood risk in New York City - a detailed risk assessment of future risks and validation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Moel, Hans; Lin, Ning; Emanuel, Kerry; Botzen, Wouter; Aerts, Jeroen

    2014-05-01

    Hurricane Irene in 2011 and hurricane Sandy in 2012 showed all too clearly how vulnerable New York City (NYC) and the east coast of continental USA is to the devastating effects of coastal flooding. Total repair and recovery costs caused by Sandy in the States of New Jersey and New York totaled around 60 billion. The wake of hurricane Sandy has seen a lively debate on how to cope with this now apparent flood risk, and how it may change in the future. In this research, we developed an integrated flood risk model to assess the flood risk to buildings and vehicles by combining more than 500 synthetic hurricane events with the Hazus-MH4 damage model. Risk is estimated on a refined spatial scale for the current situation, as well as for future conditions around 2050 and 2080 by including population growth and climate change. Climate change is included based on synthetic storms using boundary conditions of 4 different GCMs, representing the effect of sea-level rise as well as a possible increase in storm frequency. The effect of uncertainty in storm water levels and damage estimation is also illustrated. The model results are validated using observations of damage caused by Hurricane Sandy in the region, yielding good agreement, giving confidence in the capacities of the modeling framework. The model results illustrate the spatial extent of the flood risk in New York (at the census block level), yielding an aggregate of 71 million/year for buildings and vehicles (total risk including e.g. infrastructure would roughly be double). The population growth projected by the city will result in a moderate increase in risk (~17%). Climate change, on the other hand, will have a much more profound impact on risk in NYC. Sea-level rise will already have a considerable impact (+60% in 2050s; +150% in 2080s), but coupled with a possible increase in storm frequency, as present in two of the four GCMs, will make for a large increase (+440% in 2050s, +1160%). A future flood risk of up to

  7. The OPTIONS model of sexual risk assessment for adolescents.

    PubMed

    Lusczakoski, Kathryn D; Rue, Lisa A

    2012-03-01

    Typically, clinical evaluations of adolescents' sexual risk is based on inquiring about past sexual activity, which is limited by not including an adolescent's cognitive decision making regarding their past sexual decisions. This study describes the novel OPTIONS framework for assessing adolescent sexual risk including three general categories of risk (e.g., primary, secondary, and tertiary risk), which is designed to overcome the limitation of action-based assessment of risk and improve practitioners' ability to assess the levels of sexual risk. A convenience sample of 201 older adolescents (18-19 years of age) completed an online version of the Relationship Options Survey (ROS), designed to measure the OPTIONS sexual risk assessment. Bivariate correlation among the subscales functioned in the hypothesized manner, with all correlations being statistically significant. Using the OPTIONS model, 22.4% participants were classified as high risk primary, 7.0% participants were classified as high risk secondary, and 27.4% participants were classified as high risk tertiary. The study provided preliminary evidence for OPTIONS model of sexual assessment, which provides a more tailored evaluation by including cognitive decisions regarding an adolescent's sexual actions.

  8. Physically Abusive Fathers and Risk Assessment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Coohey, Carol

    2006-01-01

    Objective: The purpose of this study is to identify factors that predict recidivism among families in which the father is the perpetrator of physical abuse and to compare these factors to the factors that investigators believe are related to higher risk. Method: A case-comparison design was used to understand risk among 137 predominantly Caucasian…

  9. Repeat Cardiovascular Risk Assessment after Four Years: Is There Improvement in Risk Prediction?

    PubMed Central

    Chamnan, Parinya; Simmons, Rebecca K.; Sharp, Stephen J.; Khaw, Kay-Tee; Wareham, Nicholas J.; Griffin, Simon J.

    2016-01-01

    Background Framingham risk equations are widely used to predict cardiovascular disease based on health information from a single time point. Little is known regarding use of information from repeat risk assessments and temporal change in estimated cardiovascular risk for prediction of future cardiovascular events. This study was aimed to compare the discrimination and risk reclassification of approaches using estimated cardiovascular risk at single and repeat risk assessments Methods Using data on 12,197 individuals enrolled in EPIC-Norfolk cohort, with 12 years of follow-up, we examined rates of cardiovascular events by levels of estimated absolute risk (Framingham risk score) at the first and second health examination four years later. We calculated the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (aROC) and risk reclassification, comparing approaches using information from single and repeat risk assessments (i.e., estimated risk at different time points). Results The mean Framingham risk score increased from 15.5% to 17.5% over a mean of 3.7 years from the first to second health examination. Individuals with high estimated risk (≥20%) at both health examinations had considerably higher rates of cardiovascular events than those who remained in the lowest risk category (<10%) in both health examinations (34.0 [95%CI 31.7–36.6] and 2.7 [2.2–3.3] per 1,000 person-years respectively). Using information from the most up-to-date risk assessment resulted in a small non-significant change in risk classification over the previous risk assessment (net reclassification improvement of -4.8%, p>0.05). Using information from both risk assessments slightly improved discrimination compared to information from a single risk assessment (aROC 0.76 and 0.75 respectively, p<0.001). Conclusions Using information from repeat risk assessments over a period of four years modestly improved prediction, compared to using data from a single risk assessment. However, this

  10. Asbestos exposure--quantitative assessment of risk

    SciTech Connect

    Hughes, J.M.; Weill, H.

    1986-01-01

    Methods for deriving quantitative estimates of asbestos-associated health risks are reviewed and their numerous assumptions and uncertainties described. These methods involve extrapolation of risks observed at past relatively high asbestos concentration levels down to usually much lower concentration levels of interest today--in some cases, orders of magnitude lower. These models are used to calculate estimates of the potential risk to workers manufacturing asbestos products and to students enrolled in schools containing asbestos products. The potential risk to workers exposed for 40 yr to 0.5 fibers per milliliter (f/ml) of mixed asbestos fiber type (a permissible workplace exposure limit under consideration by the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) ) are estimated as 82 lifetime excess cancers per 10,000 exposed. The risk to students exposed to an average asbestos concentration of 0.001 f/ml of mixed asbestos fiber types for an average enrollment period of 6 school years is estimated as 5 lifetime excess cancers per one million exposed. If the school exposure is to chrysotile asbestos only, then the estimated risk is 1.5 lifetime excess cancers per million. Risks from other causes are presented for comparison; e.g., annual rates (per million) of 10 deaths from high school football, 14 from bicycling (10-14 yr of age), 5 to 20 for whooping cough vaccination. Decisions concerning asbestos products require participation of all parties involved and should only be made after a scientifically defensible estimate of the associated risk has been obtained. In many cases to date, such decisions have been made without adequate consideration of the level of risk or the cost-effectiveness of attempts to lower the potential risk. 73 references.

  11. Aviation Security, Risk Assessment, and Risk Aversion for Public Decisionmaking

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stewart, Mark G.; Mueller, John

    2013-01-01

    This paper estimates risk reductions for each layer of security designed to prevent commercial passenger airliners from being commandeered by terrorists, kept under control for some time, and then crashed into specific targets. Probabilistic methods are used to characterize the uncertainty of rates of deterrence, detection, and disruption, as well…

  12. Wetlands in the ecological risk assessment process: A case study

    SciTech Connect

    Saban, L.B.

    1995-12-31

    In the past few years, the ecological risk assessment (ERA) process as outlined in the EPA document Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment has been successfully used to assess risk to birds, mammals, aquatic organisms, plants, and to a limited extent, reptiles and amphibians, but has only recently been applied to wetlands. Due to the unique role that wetlands play in the environment as sources and sinks for nutrients, sediment retention, high productivity, habitat transition zones, aquifer recharge, high diversity and richness of biota, and aesthetic value, it is important to consider the entire wetland system in the ERA process. Because nearly sixty percent of Superfund sites are located in or near wetlands, a comprehensive approach is proposed to evaluate potential risks to flora and fauna in these wetland environments. Using the delineation and functional assessment techniques developed by wetland scientists, an estuarine wetland in western Washington was evaluated within the scope of ERA`S. The ERA was applied to the wetland using functional assessments as an integral part of the problem formulation phase of the risk assessment process. Applying the ERA process to wetlands enhances the functional assessment process and helps to define critical elements to evaluate within wetland systems. The results of this risk assessment help to define patches within a landscape that are potentially at risk and how to prioritize remedial actions.

  13. Mercury from dental amalgam: exposure and risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Koral, Stephen M

    2013-02-01

    There has long been an undercurrent within the dental profession of anti-amalgam sentiment, a "mercury-free" movement. To assess whether anything is or is not scientifically wrong with amalgam, one must look to the vast literature on exposure, toxicology, and risk assessment of mercury. The subject of risk assessment goes straight to the heart of the debate over whether a malgam is safe, or not, for unrestricted use in dentistry in the population at large.

  14. The readability of online breast cancer risk assessment tools.

    PubMed

    Cortez, Sarah; Milbrandt, Melissa; Kaphingst, Kimberly; James, Aimee; Colditz, Graham

    2015-11-01

    Numerous breast cancer risk assessment tools that allow users to input personal risk information and obtain a personalized breast cancer risk estimate are available on the Internet. The goal of these tools is to increase screening awareness and identify modifiable health behaviors; however, the utility of this risk information is limited by the readability of the material. We undertook this study to assess the overall readability of breast cancer risk assessment tools and accompanying information, as well as to identify areas of suggested improvement. We searched for breast cancer risk assessment tools, using five search terms, on three search engines. All searches were performed on June 12, 2014. Sites that met inclusion criteria were then assessed for readability using the suitability assessment of materials (SAM) and the SMOG readability formula (July 1, 2014–January 31, 2015). The primary outcomes are the frequency distribution of overall SAM readability category (superior, adequate, or not suitable) and mean SMOG reading grade level. The search returned 42 sites were eligible for assessment, only 9 (21.4 %) of which achieved an overall SAM superior rating, and 27 (64.3 %) were deemed adequate. The average SMOG reading grade level was grade 12.1 (SD 1.6, range 9–15). The readability of breast cancer risk assessment tools and the sites that host them is an important barrier to risk communication. This study demonstrates that most breast cancer risk assessment tools are not accessible to individuals with limited health literacy skills. More importantly, this study identifies potential areas of improvement and has the potential to heighten a physician’s awareness of the Internet resources a patient might navigate in their quest for breast cancer risk information. PMID:26475705

  15. Seismic risk assessment for road in Indonesia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Toyfur, Mona Foralisa; Pribadi, Krishna S.

    2016-05-01

    Road networks in Indonesia consist of 446,000 km of national, provincial and local roads as well as toll highways. Indonesia is one of countries that exposed to various natural hazards, such as earthquakes, floods, landslides, etc. Within the Indonesian archipelago, several global tectonic plates interact, such as the Indo-Australian, Pacific, Eurasian, resulting in a complex geological setting, characterized by the existence of seismically active faults and subduction zones and a chain of more than one hundred active volcanoes. Roads in Indonesia are vital infrastructure needed for people and goods movement, thus supporting community life and economic activities, including promoting regional economic development. Road damages and losses due to earthquakes have not been studied widely, whereas road disruption caused enormous economic damage. The aim of this research is to develop a method to analyse risk caused by seismic hazard to roads. The seismic risk level of road segment is defined using an earthquake risk index, adopting the method of Earthquake Disaster Risk Index model developed by Davidson (1997). Using this method, road segments' risk level can be defined and compared, and road risk map can be developed as a tool for prioritizing risk mitigation programs for road networks in Indonesia.

  16. NGNP Risk Management through Assessing Technology Readiness

    SciTech Connect

    John W. Collins

    2010-08-01

    Throughout the Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) project life cycle, technical risks are identified, analyzed, and mitigated and decisions are made regarding the design and selection of plant and sub-system configurations, components and their fabrication materials, and operating conditions. Risk resolution and decision making are key elements that help achieve project completion within budget and schedule constraints and desired plant availability. To achieve this objective, a formal decision-making and risk management process was developed for NGNP, based on proven systems engineering principles that have guided aerospace and military applications.

  17. A risk-based approach for a national assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Whelan, Gene; Laniak, Gerard F.

    1998-10-18

    The need for environmental systems modeling is growing rapidly because of the 1) the combination of increasing technical scope and complexity related to questions of risk-based cause and effect and 2) need to explicitly address cost effectiveness in both the development and implementation of environmental regulations. The nature of risk assessments are evolving with their increased complexity in assessing individual sites and collection of sites, addressing regional or national regulatory needs. These assessments require the integration of existing tools and the development of new databases and models, based on a comprehensive and holistic view of the risk assessment problem. To meet these environmental regulatory needs, multiple-media-based assessments are formulated to view and assess risks from a comprehensive environmental systems perspective, crossing the boundaries of several scientific disciplines. Given the consideration and the advanced states of computer hardware and software, it is possible to design a software system that facilitates the development and integration of assessment tools (e.g., databases and models). In this paper, a risk-based approach for supporting national risk assessments is presented. This approach combines 1) databases, 2) multiple media models, combining source-term, fate and transport, exposure, and risk/hazard, and 3) sensitivity/uncertainty capabilities within a software system capable of growing within the science of risk assessment. The design and linkages of the system are discussed. This paper also provides the rationale behind the design of the framework, as there is a recognized need to develop more holistic approaches to risk assessment.

  18. Insurance World in Transition: Changes in Global Risk Taking and Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Michel, Gero; Tiampo, Kristy

    2015-04-01

    Catastrophe insurance risk assessment, risk taking, and regulation has evolved over the last 20 years and is gearing up for significant further change in the years ahead. Changes in regulation and influx of capital have put profit margins for catastrophe risk products under pressure despite the fact that changes in climate as well as increasing insurance penetration is expected to heighten demand. As a result, reinsurance strategies are moving away from catastrophe risk. In addition, lower margins require cheaper and more efficient risk assessment methods and processes which are contrary to evolving analytical tools and methods that had increased expenses in line with growing margins over the last decade. New capital providers are less familiar with and less willing to accept complex supply chains for risk management, relationship-driven business and tedious data exchange and management processes. Risk takers claim new measures and ask for more flexibility in the use of tools. The current concepts of catastrophe insurance risk assessment are hence under thorough scrutiny. This presentation deals with the changing landscape in catastrophe insurance risk assessment and risk hedging and discusses changes in catastrophe risk assessment products and demand. How likely is it that private, small and nimble hazard and risk consulting groups - increasingly emanating from larger science organizations - will replace large established firms in their role to assess risk? What role do public-private academic partnerships play in assuming risk for catastrophe insurance and what role could they play in the future? What are the opportunities and downsides of the current changes in risk taking and hedging? What is needed from the scientific community in order to fill the gaps in risk management and who is likely to take advantage of the current changes?

  19. Risk assessment and risk transfer from an insurerś point of view

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ebner, G.

    2009-04-01

    Risk, a word that causes a lot of associations in human brains. Many of us don't like risks. Since hundreds of years insurance is the most common way to get rid of the financial consequences when risks convert to damages. This article deals with commercial risks and the possibilities of risk transfer, an important task within the field of risk management. For commercial entities it is very important to transfer risks, threatening the competitiveness or even worse the existence of a company. At the beginning of insurance it was more the less a bet between merchants and rich people. Later on mutual societies were taking place. Today we see a complex insurance industry with insurers, reinsurers, self insuring possibilities via captives and much more. This complex system, with all the different ways to deal with risk transfer requires a professional risk assessment! Risk assessment is based on knowledge about the threatened assets, the likelihood that they will be damaged, the threats and the possibilities to protect these assets. Assets may be tangible or intangible. Assessing risks is not a precise calculation that delivers a result without any doubt. But insurers and insured need a basis to fix a premium, both of them can agree. This contribution will present a system to assess risks and to find the right risk-transfer-premiums.

  20. Risk assessment for the Arkansas City hazardous-waste site

    SciTech Connect

    Hopper, L.D.

    1989-01-01

    A review of risk assessment revealed inconsistencies in the methods used, arguments as to the reliability of the end results, and conflicts over its acceptance by members of scientific community. The US Geological Survey requested an endangerment assessment for the environmental contamination from an old oil refinery site in Coffey County, Kansas. The four aspects of the risk assessment process were applied to the data available from the contamination site. Investigation of the substances present, their toxicities, available dose-response data and exposure information led to quantitative risk values for various substances present. Risks to the susceptible population were characterized according to type of threat and risk probability. Significant risks due to systemic toxicants and carcinogens, as well as organoleptic problems, were determine to pose a threat to the population experiencing exposure at this particular site.

  1. Current issues and perspectives in food safety and risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Eisenbrand, G

    2015-12-01

    In this review, current issues and opportunities in food safety assessment are discussed. Food safety is considered an essential element inherent in global food security. Hazard characterization is pivotal within the continuum of risk assessment, but it may be conceived only within a very limited frame as a true alternative to risk assessment. Elucidation of the mode of action underlying a given hazard is vital to create a plausible basis for human toxicology evaluation. Risk assessment, to convey meaningful risk communication, must be based on appropriate and reliable consideration of both exposure and mode of action. New perspectives, provided by monitoring human exogenous and endogenous exposure biomarkers, are considered of great promise to support classical risk extrapolation from animal toxicology. PMID:26614817

  2. A Single Conjunction Risk Assessment Metric: the F-Value

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Frigm, Ryan Clayton; Newman, Lauri K.

    2009-01-01

    The Conjunction Assessment Team at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center provides conjunction risk assessment for many NASA robotic missions. These risk assessments are based on several figures of merit, such as miss distance, probability of collision, and orbit determination solution quality. However, these individual metrics do not singly capture the overall risk associated with a conjunction, making it difficult for someone without this complete understanding to take action, such as an avoidance maneuver. The goal of this analysis is to introduce a single risk index metric that can easily convey the level of risk without all of the technical details. The proposed index is called the conjunction "F-value." This paper presents the concept of the F-value and the tuning of the metric for use in routine Conjunction Assessment operations.

  3. [Study on the risk assessment method of regional groundwater pollution].

    PubMed

    Yang, Yan; Yu, Yun-Jiang; Wang, Zong-Qing; Li, Ding-Long; Sun, Hong-Wei

    2013-02-01

    Based on the boundary elements of system risk assessment, the regional groundwater pollution risk assessment index system was preliminarily established, which included: regional groundwater specific vulnerability assessment, the regional pollution sources characteristics assessment and the health risk assessment of regional featured pollutants. The three sub-evaluation systems were coupled with the multi-index comprehensive method, the risk was characterized with the Spatial Analysis of ArcMap, and a new method to evaluate regional groundwater pollution risk that suitable for different parts of natural conditions, different types of pollution was established. Take Changzhou as an example, the risk of shallow groundwater pollution was studied with the new method, and found that the vulnerability index of groundwater in Changzhou is high and distributes unevenly; The distribution of pollution sources is concentrated and has a great impact on groundwater pollution risks; Influenced by the pollutants and pollution sources, the values of health risks are high in the urban area of Changzhou. The pollution risk of shallow groundwater is high and distributes unevenly, and distributes in the north of the line of Anjia-Xuejia-Zhenglu, the center of the city and the southeast, where the human activities are more intense and the pollution sources are intensive.

  4. Using Risk Assessment Methodologies to Meet Management Objectives

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    DeMott, D. L.

    2015-01-01

    Current decision making involves numerous possible combinations of technology elements, safety and health issues, operational aspects and process considerations to satisfy program goals. Identifying potential risk considerations as part of the management decision making process provides additional tools to make more informed management decision. Adapting and using risk assessment methodologies can generate new perspectives on various risk and safety concerns that are not immediately apparent. Safety and operational risks can be identified and final decisions can balance these considerations with cost and schedule risks. Additional assessments can also show likelihood of event occurrence and event consequence to provide a more informed basis for decision making, as well as cost effective mitigation strategies. Methodologies available to perform Risk Assessments range from qualitative identification of risk potential, to detailed assessments where quantitative probabilities are calculated. Methodology used should be based on factors that include: 1) type of industry and industry standards, 2) tasks, tools, and environment 3) type and availability of data and 4) industry views and requirements regarding risk & reliability. Risk Assessments are a tool for decision makers to understand potential consequences and be in a position to reduce, mitigate or eliminate costly mistakes or catastrophic failures.

  5. Risk assessment in the North Caucasus ski resorts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Komarov, Anton Y.; Seliverstov, Yury G.; Glazovskaya, Tatyana G.; Turchaninova, Alla S.

    2016-10-01

    Avalanches pose a significant problem in most mountain regions of Russia. The constant growth of economic activity, and therefore the increased avalanche hazard, in the North Caucasus region lead to demand for the development of large-scale avalanche risk assessment methods. Such methods are needed for the determination of appropriate avalanche protection measures as well as for economic assessments.The requirement of natural hazard risk assessments is determined by the Federal Law of the Russian Federation (Federal Law 21.12.1994 N 68-FZ, 2016). However, Russian guidelines (SNIP 11-02-96, 2013; SNIP 22-02-2003, 2012) are not clearly presented concerning avalanche risk assessment calculations. Thus, we discuss these problems by presenting a new avalanche risk assessment approach, with the example of developing but poorly researched ski resort areas. The suggested method includes the formulas to calculate collective and individual avalanche risk. The results of risk analysis are shown in quantitative data that can be used to determine levels of avalanche risk (appropriate, acceptable and inappropriate) and to suggest methods to decrease the individual risk to an acceptable level or better. The analysis makes it possible to compare risk quantitative data obtained from different regions, analyze them and evaluate the economic feasibility of protection measures.

  6. Bioassay-based risk assessment of complex mixtures

    SciTech Connect

    Donnelly, K.C.; Huebner, H.J.

    1996-12-31

    The baseline risk assessment often plays an integral role in various decision-making processes at Superfund sites. The present study reports on risk characterizations prepared for seven complex mixtures using biological and chemical analysis. Three of the samples (A, B, and C) were complex mixtures of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) extracted from coal tar; while four samples extracted from munitions-contaminated soil contained primarily nitroaromatic hydrocarbons. The chemical-based risk assessment ranked sample C as least toxic, while the risk associated with samples A and B was approximately equal. The microbial bioassay was in general agreement for the coal tar samples. The weighted activity of the coal tar extracts in Salmonella was 4,960 for sample C, and 162,000 and 206,000 for samples A and B, respectively. The bacterial mutagenicity of 2,4,6-trinitrotoluene contaminated soils exhibited an indirect correlation with chemical-based risk assessment. The aqueous extract of sample 004 induced 1,292 net revertants in Salmonella, while the estimated risk to ingestion and dermal adsorption was 2E-9. The data indicate that the chemical-based risk assessment accurately predicted the genotoxicity of the PAHs, while the accuracy of the risk assessment for munitions contaminated soils was limited due to the presence of metabolites of TNT degradation. The biological tests used in this research provide a valuable compliment to chemical analysis for characterizing the genotoxic risk of complex mixtures.

  7. Methodology issues in risk assessment for radon

    SciTech Connect

    Harley, N.H. )

    1991-01-01

    The alpha dose per unit radon daughter exposure in mines and homes is comparable at about 5 mGy/WLM. This means that excess lung cancer risk determined in follow-up studies of miners should be valid to extrapolating to environmental populations. There are several models currently used for risk projection to estimate lung cancer in the US from indoor radon exposure. The accuracy of the estimated depends upon the quality of the exposure data and the models. Recent miner epidemiology confirms that excess lung cancer risk decreases with time subsequent to cessation of exposure. The most rigorous ecological study, to date, shows a persistent negative relationship between average measured indoor radon in US counties and lung cancer mortality. A model for lung cancer risk is proposed that includes smoking, urbanization, and radon exposure. The model helps to explain the difficulties in observing the direct effects of indoor radon in the environment.

  8. EPA/STAR Cumulative Risk Assessment Research

    EPA Science Inventory

    Exposure to different combinations of environmental stressors can contribute to increased risk for negative health consequences. Extensive studies show associations between disadvantaged communities and suboptimal health. Stressful social environments may also make a population t...

  9. Risk assessment of a deep sea pipeline

    SciTech Connect

    Egan, G.R.; Zebroski, E.L.; Kaplan, S.

    1996-12-31

    A unique design of subsea gas pipeline has been under consideration for several years. It would traverse the Arabian Sea for 1,100 kilometers with a large part of it at depths over 3,000 meters and temperatures near 2 C. A Probabilistic Risk Analysis has been performed with special attention to the novel technical features of the design, construction and operating environments. The factors considered to date have included: pipe and materials design for internal pressures to 500 bar and external pressures to 430 bar, laydown processes, materials quality and QA/QC, piping stress and strain levels in laydown and spans, route selection, and other factors. The methods used to screen, rank, and quantify the risks are described. The scenarios involving the principal hazards are described and the risks are quantified. Options for further risk control and reduction measures are also identified. The results at this stage show relatively low expected values for the principal risks. Assuming effective implementation of the available control measures, the proposed design is calculated to have risk levels lower than the historical average for similar mega-projects.

  10. WORKGROUP IV SYNOPSIS: REGULATORY ISSUES AND RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    The discussions in this workgroup started with an identification and brief explanation of U.S. regulations pertaining to wetlands. The Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment Forum was then reviewed in relation to the unique aspects of conducting a wetland assessment. Assessment...

  11. Assessing biomarker use in risk assessment--a survey of practitioners.

    PubMed

    Maier, Andrew; Savage, Russell E; Haber, Lynne T

    Advances in molecular epidemiology and mechanistic toxicology have provided increased opportunities for incorporating biomarkers in the human health risk assessment process. For years, the published literature has lauded the concept of incorporating biomarkers into risk assessments as a means to reduce uncertainty in estimating health risk. For all the potential benefits, one would think that markers of effective dose, markers of early biological effects, and markers of human susceptibility are frequently selected as the basis for quantitative human health risk assessments. For this article, we sought to determine the degree to which this evolution in risk assessment has come to pass. The extent to which biomarkers are being used in current human health risk assessment was determined through an informal survey of leading risk assessment practitioners. Case studies highlighting the evolution of risk assessment methods to include biomarkers are also described. The goal of this review was to enhance the implementation of biomarker technology in risk assessment by (1) highlighting successes in biomarker implementation, (2) identifying key barriers to overcome, and (3) describing evolutions in risk assessment methods.

  12. Hereditary cancer risk assessment: essential tools for a better approach

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Hereditary cancer risk assessment (HCRA) is a multidisciplinary process of estimating probabilities of germline mutations in cancer susceptibility genes and assessing empiric risks of cancer, based on personal and family history. It includes genetic counseling, testing and management of at-risk individuals so that they can make well-informed choices about cancer surveillance, surgical treatment and chemopreventive measures, including biomolecular cancer therapies. Providing patients and family members with an appropriate HCRA will contribute to a better process of making decisions about their personal and family risks of cancer. Following individuals at high risk through screening protocols, reassuring those at low risk, and referring those at increased risk of hereditary cancer to a cancer genetics center may be the best suitable approach of HCRA. PMID:24165150

  13. The MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy: A Flexible Strategy for Efficient Information Collection and Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials.

    PubMed

    Bos, Peter M J; Gottardo, Stefania; Scott-Fordsmand, Janeck J; van Tongeren, Martie; Semenzin, Elena; Fernandes, Teresa F; Hristozov, Danail; Hund-Rinke, Kerstin; Hunt, Neil; Irfan, Muhammad-Adeel; Landsiedel, Robert; Peijnenburg, Willie J G M; Sánchez Jiménez, Araceli; van Kesteren, Petra C E; Oomen, Agnes G

    2015-11-27

    An engineered nanomaterial (ENM) may actually consist of a population of primary particles, aggregates and agglomerates of various sizes. Furthermore, their physico-chemical characteristics may change during the various life-cycle stages. It will probably not be feasible to test all varieties of all ENMs for possible health and environmental risks. There is therefore a need to further develop the approaches for risk assessment of ENMs. Within the EU FP7 project Managing Risks of Nanoparticles (MARINA) a two-phase risk assessment strategy has been developed. In Phase 1 (Problem framing) a base set of information is considered, relevant exposure scenarios (RESs) are identified and the scope for Phase 2 (Risk assessment) is established. The relevance of an RES is indicated by information on exposure, fate/kinetics and/or hazard; these three domains are included as separate pillars that contain specific tools. Phase 2 consists of an iterative process of risk characterization, identification of data needs and integrated collection and evaluation of data on the three domains, until sufficient information is obtained to conclude on possible risks in a RES. Only data are generated that are considered to be needed for the purpose of risk assessment. A fourth pillar, risk characterization, is defined and it contains risk assessment tools. This strategy describes a flexible and efficient approach for data collection and risk assessment which is essential to ensure safety of ENMs. Further developments are needed to provide guidance and make the MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy operational. Case studies will be needed to refine the strategy.

  14. Biologic markers in risk assessment for environmental carcinogens

    PubMed Central

    Perera, F.; Mayer, J.; Santella, R. M.; Brenner, D.; Jeffrey, A.; Latriano, L.; Smith, S.; Warburton, D.; Young, T. L.; Tsai, W. Y.; Hemminki, K.; Brandt-Rauf, P.

    1991-01-01

    The potential of biologic markers to provide more timely and precise risk assessments for environmental carcinogens is viewed against the current state-of-the-art in biological monitoring/molecular epidemiology. Biologic markers such as carcinogen-DNA adducts and oncogene activation are currently considered valid qualitative indicators of potential risk, but for most chemical exposures research is needed to establish their validity as quantitative predictors of cancer risk. Biologic markers have, however, already provided valuable insights into the magnitude of interindividual variation in response to carcinogenic exposures, with major implications for risk assessment. PMID:2050068

  15. The Resource Handbook on DOE Transportation Risk Assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Chen, S. Y.; Kapoor, A. K.

    2003-02-27

    In an attempt to bring forth increased efficiency and effectiveness in assessing transportation risks associated with radioactive materials or wastes, the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) National Transportation Program (NTP) published a resource handbook in 2002. The handbook draws from the broad technical expertise among DOE national laboratories and industry, which reflects the extensive experience gained from DOE's efforts in conducting assessments (i.e., environmental impact assessments) within the context of the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) in the past 20 years. The handbook is intended to serve as a primary source of information regarding the approach and basis for conducting transportation risk assessments under normal or accidental conditions that are associated with shipping radioactive materials or wastes. It is useful as a reference to DOE managers, NEPA assessors, technical analysts, contractors, and also stakeholders. It provides a summary of pertinent U.S. policies and regulations on the shipment of radioactive materials, existing guidance on preparing transportation risk assessments, a review of previous transportation risk assessments by DOE and others, a description of comprehensive and generally accepted transportation risk assessment methodologies, and a compilation of supporting data, parameters, and assumptions. The handbook also provides a discussion paper on an issue that has been identified as being important in the past. The discussion paper focuses on cumulative impacts, illustrating the ongoing evolution of transportation risk assessment. The discussion may be expanded in the future as emerging issues are identified. The handbook will be maintained and periodically updated to provide current and accurate information.

  16. Corrosion risk assessment and risk based inspection for sweet oil and gas corrosion -- Practical experience

    SciTech Connect

    Pursell, M.J.; Sehnan, C.; Naen, M.F.

    1999-11-01

    Successful and cost effective Corrosion Risk Assessment depends on a sensible use of prediction methods and good understanding of process factors. Both are discussed with examples. Practice semi-probabilistic Risk Based Inspection planning methods that measure risk directly as cost and personnel hazard are compared with traditional methods and discussed.

  17. The Effect of Genetic Risk Information and Health Risk Assessment on Compliance with Preventive Behaviors.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bamberg, Richard; And Others

    1990-01-01

    Results from a study of 82 males provide no statistical support and limited encouragement that genetic risk information may motivate persons to make positive changes in preventive health behaviors. Health risk assessments were used to identify subjects at risk for coronary heart disease or lung cancer because of genetic factors. (IAH)

  18. Advancing Risk Assessment through the Application of Systems Toxicology.

    PubMed

    Sauer, John Michael; Kleensang, André; Peitsch, Manuel C; Hayes, A Wallace

    2016-01-01

    Risk assessment is the process of quantifying the probability of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from human activities. Mechanistic approaches to risk assessment have been generally referred to as systems toxicology. Systems toxicology makes use of advanced analytical and computational tools to integrate classical toxicology and quantitative analysis of large networks of molecular and functional changes occurring across multiple levels of biological organization. Three presentations including two case studies involving both in vitro and in vivo approaches described the current state of systems toxicology and the potential for its future application in chemical risk assessment. PMID:26977253

  19. Advancing Risk Assessment through the Application of Systems Toxicology

    PubMed Central

    Sauer, John Michael; Kleensang, André; Peitsch, Manuel C.; Hayes, A. Wallace

    2016-01-01

    Risk assessment is the process of quantifying the probability of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from human activities. Mechanistic approaches to risk assessment have been generally referred to as systems toxicology. Systems toxicology makes use of advanced analytical and computational tools to integrate classical toxicology and quantitative analysis of large networks of molecular and functional changes occurring across multiple levels of biological organization. Three presentations including two case studies involving both in vitro and in vivo approaches described the current state of systems toxicology and the potential for its future application in chemical risk assessment. PMID:26977253

  20. [Use of ionizing radiation sources in metallurgy: risk assessment].

    PubMed

    Giugni, U

    2012-01-01

    Use of ionizing radiation sources in the metallurgical industry: risk assessment. Radioactive sources and fixed or mobile X-ray equipment are used for both process and quality control. The use of ionizing radiation sources requires careful risk assessment. The text lists the characteristics of the sources and the legal requirements, and contains a description of the documentation required and the methods used for risk assessment. It describes how to estimate the doses to operators and the relevant classification criteria used for the purpose of radiation protection. Training programs must be organized in close collaboration between the radiation protection expert and the occupational physician.

  1. QSAR in predictive models for ecological risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Passino-Reader, D.R.; Hickey, J.P.

    1994-12-31

    The end use of toxicity and exposure data is risk assessment to determine the probability that receptors experience harmful effects from exposure to environmental contaminants at a site. Determination of processes and development of predictive models precede the collection of data for risk assessment. The presence of hundreds of contaminants at a site and absence of data for many contaminants lead to the use of QSAR to implement the models. Examples of the use of linear salvation energy relationships (LSER) to provide estimates of aquatic toxicity and exposure endpoints will be provided. Integration of QSAR estimates and measured data must be addressed in the uncertainty analysis accompanying ecological risk assessment.

  2. Assessing the risks from exposure to radon in dwellings

    SciTech Connect

    Walsh, P.J.; Lowder, W.M.

    1983-07-01

    The factors used to assess the radiation dose and health risks from human exposure to radon in dwellings are critically reviewed in this summary. Sources of indoor radon and determinants of air concentrations and exposure levels are given as well as the uncertainties that exist in their formulation. Methods of assessing health effects from inhalation of radon and its progeny are discussed with emphasis on dosimetry of radon daughters and formulation of risk per dose values. Finally, methods of assessing risks for general population exposures to indoor radon concentrations are treated.

  3. Assessing Risk and Driving Risk Mitigation for First-of-a-Kind Advanced Reactors

    SciTech Connect

    John W. Collins

    2011-09-01

    Planning and decision making amidst programmatic and technological risks represent significant challenges for projects. This presentation addresses the four step risk-assessment process needed to determine clear path forward to mature needed technology and design, license, and construct advanced nuclear power plants, which have never been built before, including Small Modular Reactors. This four step process has been carefully applied to the Next Generation Nuclear Plant. STEP 1 - Risk Identification Risks are identified, collected, and categorized as technical risks, programmatic risks, and project risks, each of which result in cost and schedule impacts if realized. These include risks arising from the use of technologies not previously demonstrated in a relevant application. These risks include normal and accident scenarios which the SMR could experience including events that cause the disablement of engineered safety features (typically documented in Phenomena Identification Ranking Tables (PIRT) as produced with the Nuclear Regulatory Commission) and design needs which must be addressed to further detail the design. Product - Project Risk Register contained in a database with sorting, presentation, rollup, risk work off functionality similar to the NGNP Risk Management System . STEP 2 - Risk Quantification The risks contained in the risk register are then scored for probability of occurrence and severity of consequence, if realized. Here the scoring methodology is established and the basis for the scoring is well documented. Product - Quantified project risk register with documented basis for scoring. STEP 3 - Risk Handling Strategy Risks are mitigated by applying a systematic approach to maturing the technology through Research and Development, modeling, test, and design. A Technology Readiness Assessment is performed to determine baseline Technology Readiness Levels (TRL). Tasks needed to mature the technology are developed and documented in a roadmap

  4. Risk Assessments by Female Victims of Intimate Partner Violence: Predictors of Risk Perceptions and Comparison to an Actuarial Measure

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Connor-Smith, Jennifer K.; Henning, Kris; Moore, Stephanie; Holdford, Robert

    2011-01-01

    Recent studies support the validity of both structured risk assessment tools and victim perceptions as predictors of risk for repeat intimate partner violence (IPV). Combining structured risk assessments and victim risk assessments leads to better predictions of repeat violence than either alone, suggesting that the two forms of assessment provide…

  5. Microbial risk assessment in heterogeneous aquifers: 2. Infection risk sensitivity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Molin, S.; Cvetkovic, V.; StenströM, T. A.

    2010-05-01

    The entire chain of events of human disease transmitted through contaminated water, from pathogen introduction into the source (E. coli, rotavirus, and Hepatitis A), pathogen migration through the aquifer pathway, to ingestion via a supply well, and finally, the potential infection in the human host, is investigated. The health risk calculations are based on a relevant hazardous event with safe setback distances estimated by considering the infection risk from peak exposure in compliance with an acceptable level defined by a regulatory agency. A site-specific hypothetical scenario is illustrated for an aquifer with similar characteristics as the Cape Cod site, Massachusetts (United States). Relatively large variation of safe distances for the three index pathogens is found; individually, none of the index pathogens could predict the safe distance under the wide range of conditions investigated. It is shown that colloid filtration theory (CFT) with spatially variable attachment-detachment rates yields significantly different results from the effective CFT model (i.e., assuming spatially constant parameters).

  6. Assessing the Fire Risk for a Historic Hangar

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Datta, Koushik; Morrison, Richard S.

    2010-01-01

    NASA Ames Research Center (ARC) is evaluating options of reuse of its historic Hangar 1. As a part of this evaluation, a qualitative fire risk assessment study was performed to evaluate the potential threat of combustion of the historic hangar. The study focused on the fire risk trade-off of either installing or not installing a Special Hazard Fire Suppression System in the Hangar 1 deck areas. The assessment methodology was useful in discussing the important issues among various groups within the Center. Once the methodology was deemed acceptable, the results were assessed. The results showed that the risk remained in the same risk category, whether Hangar 1 does or does not have a Special Hazard Fire Suppression System. Note that the methodology assessed the risk to Hangar 1 and not the risk to an aircraft in the hangar. If one had a high value aircraft, the aircraft risk analysis could potentially show a different result. The assessed risk results were then communicated to management and other stakeholders.

  7. Moving and handling: reducing risk through assessment.

    PubMed

    Warren, Gemma

    2016-06-01

    Manual handling injuries can occur almost anywhere in a healthcare environment, and most staff perform a variety of moving and handling tasks every day. Heavy lifting, awkward posture, and previous or existing injury can increase the risk of musculoskeletal disorders. A healthcare professional's involvement in moving and handling is more widespread than it might appear, and their actions and understanding of techniques, legislation and guidelines have a direct effect on patient care. Every situation that involves the handling, or partial handling, of a person presents varying levels of risk to the patient and the carer. Maintaining a good level of patient mobility and independence is an essential part of care delivery and can reduce the risk of long-term physical and psychological effects. Delivery of care should focus on the individual's capacity, not their incapacity, to ensure that they are treated with dignity and respect.

  8. Earthquake risk assessment of Alexandria, Egypt

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Badawy, Ahmed; Gaber, Hanan; Ibrahim, Hamza

    2015-01-01

    Throughout historical and recent times, Alexandria has suffered great damage due to earthquakes from both near- and far-field sources. Sometimes, the sources of such damages are not well known. During the twentieth century, the city was shaken by several earthquakes generated from inland dislocations (e.g., 29 Apr. 1974, 12 Oct. 1992, and 28 Dec. 1999) and the African continental margin (e.g., 12 Sept. 1955 and 28 May 1998). Therefore, this study estimates the earthquake ground shaking and the consequent impacts in Alexandria on the basis of two earthquake scenarios. The simulation results show that Alexandria affected by both earthquakes scenarios relatively in the same manner despite the number of casualties during the first scenario (inland dislocation) is twice larger than the second one (African continental margin). An expected percentage of 2.27 from Alexandria's total constructions (12.9 millions, 2006 Census) will be affected, 0.19 % injuries and 0.01 % deaths of the total population (4.1 millions, 2006 Census) estimated by running the first scenario. The earthquake risk profile reveals that three districts (Al-Montazah, Al-Amriya, and Shark) lie in high seismic risks, two districts (Gharb and Wasat) are in moderate, and two districts (Al-Gomrok and Burg El-Arab) are in low seismic risk level. Moreover, the building damage estimations reflect that Al-Montazah is the highest vulnerable district whereas 73 % of expected damages were reported there. The undertaken analysis shows that the Alexandria urban area faces high risk. Informal areas and deteriorating buildings and infrastructure make the city particularly vulnerable to earthquake risks. For instance, more than 90 % of the estimated earthquake risks (buildings damages) are concentrated at the most densely populated (Al-Montazah, Al-Amriya, and Shark) districts. Moreover, about 75 % of casualties are in the same districts.

  9. Risk assessment techniques with applicability in marine engineering

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rudenko, E.; Panaitescu, F. V.; Panaitescu, M.

    2015-11-01

    Nowadays risk management is a carefully planned process. The task of risk management is organically woven into the general problem of increasing the efficiency of business. Passive attitude to risk and awareness of its existence are replaced by active management techniques. Risk assessment is one of the most important stages of risk management, since for risk management it is necessary first to analyze and evaluate risk. There are many definitions of this notion but in general case risk assessment refers to the systematic process of identifying the factors and types of risk and their quantitative assessment, i.e. risk analysis methodology combines mutually complementary quantitative and qualitative approaches. Purpose of the work: In this paper we will consider as risk assessment technique Fault Tree analysis (FTA). The objectives are: understand purpose of FTA, understand and apply rules of Boolean algebra, analyse a simple system using FTA, FTA advantages and disadvantages. Research and methodology: The main purpose is to help identify potential causes of system failures before the failures actually occur. We can evaluate the probability of the Top event.The steps of this analize are: the system's examination from Top to Down, the use of symbols to represent events, the use of mathematical tools for critical areas, the use of Fault tree logic diagrams to identify the cause of the Top event. Results: In the finally of study it will be obtained: critical areas, Fault tree logical diagrams and the probability of the Top event. These results can be used for the risk assessment analyses.

  10. Aggregate Exposure and Cumulative Risk Assessment--Integrating Occupational and Non-occupational Risk Factors.

    PubMed

    Lentz, T J; Dotson, G S; Williams, P R D; Maier, A; Gadagbui, B; Pandalai, S P; Lamba, A; Hearl, F; Mumtaz, M

    2015-01-01

    Occupational exposure limits have traditionally focused on preventing morbidity and mortality arising from inhalation exposures to individual chemical stressors in the workplace. While central to occupational risk assessment, occupational exposure limits have limited application as a refined disease prevention tool because they do not account for all of the complexities of the work and non-occupational environments and are based on varying health endpoints. To be of greater utility, occupational exposure limits and other risk management tools could integrate broader consideration of risks from multiple exposure pathways and routes (aggregate risk) as well as the combined risk from exposure to both chemical and non-chemical stressors, within and beyond the workplace, including the possibility that such exposures may cause interactions or modify the toxic effects observed (cumulative risk). Although still at a rudimentary stage in many cases, a variety of methods and tools have been developed or are being used in allied risk assessment fields to incorporate such considerations in the risk assessment process. These approaches, which are collectively referred to as cumulative risk assessment, have potential to be adapted or modified for occupational scenarios and provide a tangible path forward for occupational risk assessment. Accounting for complex exposures in the workplace and the broader risks faced by the individual also requires a more complete consideration of the composite effects of occupational and non-occupational risk factors to fully assess and manage worker health problems. Barriers to integrating these different factors remain, but new and ongoing community-based and worker health-related initiatives may provide mechanisms for identifying and integrating risk from aggregate exposures and cumulative risks from all relevant sources, be they occupational or non-occupational. PMID:26583907

  11. Development of Improved Caprock Integrity and Risk Assessment Techniques

    SciTech Connect

    Bruno, Michael

    2014-09-30

    GeoMechanics Technologies has completed a geomechanical caprock integrity analysis and risk assessment study funded through the US Department of Energy. The project included: a detailed review of historical caprock integrity problems experienced in the natural gas storage industry; a theoretical description and documentation of caprock integrity issues; advanced coupled transport flow modelling and geomechanical simulation of three large-scale potential geologic sequestration sites to estimate geomechanical effects from CO₂ injection; development of a quantitative risk and decision analysis tool to assess caprock integrity risks; and, ultimately the development of recommendations and guidelines for caprock characterization and CO₂ injection operating practices. Historical data from gas storage operations and CO₂ sequestration projects suggest that leakage and containment incident risks are on the order of 10-1 to 10-2, which is higher risk than some previous studies have suggested for CO₂. Geomechanical analysis, as described herein, can be applied to quantify risks and to provide operating guidelines to reduce risks. The risk assessment tool developed for this project has been applied to five areas: The Wilmington Graben offshore Southern California, Kevin Dome in Montana, the Louden Field in Illinois, the Sleipner CO₂ sequestration operation in the North Sea, and the In Salah CO₂ sequestration operation in North Africa. Of these five, the Wilmington Graben area represents the highest relative risk while the Kevin Dome area represents the lowest relative risk.

  12. Clean Slate transportation and human health risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    1997-02-01

    Public concern regarding activities involving radioactive material generally focuses on the human health risk associated with exposure to ionizing radiation. This report describes the results of a risk analysis conducted to evaluate risk for excavation, handling, and transport of soil contaminated with transuranics at the Clean Slate sites. Transportation risks were estimated for public transport routes from the Tonopah Test Range (TTR) to the Envirocore disposal facility or to the Area 3 Radioactive Waste Management Site (RWMS) at the Nevada Test Site (NTS) for both radiological risk and risk due to traffic accidents. Human health risks were evaluated for occupational and radiation-related health effects to workers. This report was generated to respond to this public concern, to provide an evaluation of the risk, and to assess feasibility of transport of the contaminated soil for disposal.

  13. A new approach to criteria for health risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Spickett, Jeffery; Katscherian, Dianne; Goh, Yang Miang

    2012-01-15

    Health Impact Assessment (HIA) is a developing component of the overall impact assessment process and as such needs access to procedures that can enable more consistent approaches to the stepwise process that is now generally accepted in both EIA and HIA. The guidelines developed during this project provide a structured process, based on risk assessment procedures which use consequences and likelihood, as a way of ranking risks to adverse health outcomes from activities subjected to HIA or HIA as part of EIA. The aim is to assess the potential for both acute and chronic health outcomes. The consequences component also identifies a series of consequences for the health care system, depicted as expressions of financial expenditure and the capacity of the health system. These more specific health risk assessment characteristics should provide for a broader consideration of health consequences and a more consistent estimation of the adverse health risks of a proposed development at both the scoping and risk assessment stages of the HIA process. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer A more objective approach to health risk assessment is provided. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer An objective set of criteria for the consequences for chronic and acute impacts. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer An objective set of criteria for the consequences on the health care system. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer An objective set of criteria for event frequency that could impact on health. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The approach presented is currently being trialled in Australia.

  14. Human health and ecological risk assessment of soil-borne arsenic and lead: A site-specific risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Roy, M.; Epp, G.A.; Beukema, P.; Nieboer, E.

    1997-12-31

    Screening level site specific human health and ecological risk assessments (ERA) were conducted at a historical (1908--1921) smelting and refining site in the Niagara Region, Ontario in accordance with the recently released provincial and federal risk assessment guidelines. The purpose of the assessment was to evaluate the risk associated with elevated levels of arsenic and lead in surface soils, and to assess alternative remediation options, prior to property transfer. Future intended land use will be parkland and for the site to remain forested. The identification of potential receptors, exposure pathways, and end-points was conducted at the biological community-level. The ERA involved a toxic cue inventory of the core smelting and refining site, adjacent lands and a reference site. Development of remediation options was based on hazard assessment and the prediction of risks associated with arsenic contamination. An evaluation of remediation options and the selection of a preferred option are discussed.

  15. Assessing and Managing Violence Risk in Juveniles

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Borum, Randy; Verhaagen, David

    2006-01-01

    Highly practical and accessible, this is an indispensable resource for any mental health practitioner working with adolescents at risk for violent behavior. Presented is a comprehensive framework for evaluating justice-involved youth or those whose behavior in school, therapy sessions, or other contexts raises concern about violence. Detailed case…

  16. Adolescent Risk Behavior Subgroups: An Empirical Assessment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sullivan, Christopher J.; Childs, Kristina K.; O'Connell, Daniel

    2010-01-01

    Theories and prior research have outlined a constellation of adolescent risk behaviors that tend to co-occur, reflecting a general pattern. Although their generality has largely been supported, there is some question about how to best study and portray the relationship among these behaviors. This study used data from a survey administered to high…

  17. Youth Risk Assessment in Complex Agency Practice

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Groner, Mark R.; Solomon, Jean

    2007-01-01

    Advancements in the delivery of community-based services and tight utilization management of high-cost treatment options result in youths with serious behavior problems receiving intervention in lower levels of care than was true ten or fifteen years ago. This shift in where services tend to be delivered necessitates enhancement of risk assessment…

  18. Meteoroid Risk Assessment of Lunar Habitat Concepts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Evans, Steven W.; Stallworth, Roderick; Robinson, Jennifer; Stellingwerf, Robert; Engler, Erich

    2006-01-01

    Preliminary analyses have been performed of meteoroid impacts on lunar surface structures built with elements made from in situ materials. The SPHC hydrodynamic code was used to simulate impacts, and was validated against hypervelocity impact test results. Impact risk will affect necessary wall thicknesses, depth of burial, and placement of lunar base structures.

  19. Environmental risk assessment system for phosphogypsum tailing dams.

    PubMed

    Sun, Xin; Ning, Ping; Tang, Xiaolong; Yi, Honghong; Li, Kai; Zhou, Lianbi; Xu, Xianmang

    2013-01-01

    This paper may be of particular interest to the readers as it provides a new environmental risk assessment system for phosphogypsum tailing dams. In this paper, we studied the phosphogypsum tailing dams which include characteristics of the pollution source, environmental risk characteristics and evaluation requirements to identify the applicable environmental risk assessment methods. Two analytical methods, that is, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy logic, were used to handle the complexity of the environmental and nonquantitative data. Using our assessment method, different risk factors can be ranked according to their contributions to the environmental risk, thereby allowing the calculation of their relative priorities during decision making. Thus, environmental decision-makers can use this approach to develop alternative management strategies for proposed, ongoing, and completed PG tailing dams.

  20. Environmental risk assessment system for phosphogypsum tailing dams.

    PubMed

    Sun, Xin; Ning, Ping; Tang, Xiaolong; Yi, Honghong; Li, Kai; Zhou, Lianbi; Xu, Xianmang

    2013-01-01

    This paper may be of particular interest to the readers as it provides a new environmental risk assessment system for phosphogypsum tailing dams. In this paper, we studied the phosphogypsum tailing dams which include characteristics of the pollution source, environmental risk characteristics and evaluation requirements to identify the applicable environmental risk assessment methods. Two analytical methods, that is, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy logic, were used to handle the complexity of the environmental and nonquantitative data. Using our assessment method, different risk factors can be ranked according to their contributions to the environmental risk, thereby allowing the calculation of their relative priorities during decision making. Thus, environmental decision-makers can use this approach to develop alternative management strategies for proposed, ongoing, and completed PG tailing dams. PMID:24382947