12 CFR 1022.72 - General requirements for risk-based pricing notices.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... provided to a consumer by placing the consumer within one of a discrete number of pricing tiers for a... lowest-priced tier). For example, a person that uses a tiered pricing structure with annual percentage...

12 CFR 1022.72 - General requirements for risk-based pricing notices.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... consumer by placing the consumer within one of a discrete number of pricing tiers for a specific type of...-priced tier). For example, a person that uses a tiered pricing structure with annual percentage rates of...

12 CFR 1022.72 - General requirements for risk-based pricing notices.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... provided to a consumer by placing the consumer within one of a discrete number of pricing tiers for a... lowest-priced tier). For example, a person that uses a tiered pricing structure with annual percentage...

12 CFR 222.72 - General requirements for risk-based pricing notices.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... provided to a consumer by placing the consumer within one of a discrete number of pricing tiers for a... lowest-priced tier). For example, a person that uses a tiered pricing structure with annual percentage...

Designing an agricultural vegetative waste-management system under uncertain prices of treatment-technology output products.

PubMed

Broitman, D; Raviv, O; Ayalon, O; Kan, I

2018-05-01

Setting up a sustainable agricultural vegetative waste-management system is a challenging investment task, particularly when markets for output products of waste-treatment technologies are not well established. We conduct an economic analysis of possible investments in treatment technologies of agricultural vegetative waste, while accounting for fluctuating output prices. Under a risk-neutral approach, we find the range of output-product prices within which each considered technology becomes most profitable, using average final prices as the exclusive factor. Under a risk-averse perspective, we rank the treatment technologies based on their computed certainty-equivalent profits as functions of the coefficient of variation of the technologies' output prices. We find the ranking of treatment technologies based on average prices to be robust to output-price fluctuations provided that the coefficient of variation of the output prices is below about 0.4, that is, approximately twice as high as that of well-established recycled-material markets such as glass, paper and plastic. We discuss some policy implications that arise from our analysis regarding vegetative waste management and its associated risks. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Inflation and the Capital Budgeting Process.

DTIC Science & Technology

1985-04-01

model . [10:22] Friend, Landskroner and Losq assert that the traditional capital asset pricing model *( CAPM ...value (NPV) capital budgeting model is used extensively in this report and the Consumer Price Index - Urban (CPI-U) and the Wholesale Price Index (WPI...general price level adjustments into the capital budgeting model . The consideration of inflation risk is also warranted. The effects of inflation

If it ain't broke, don't price fix it: the OFT and the PPRS.

PubMed

Towse, Adrian

2007-07-01

The Office of Fair Trading (OFT) Report on the UK Pharmaceutical Price Regulation Scheme (PPRS) recommends that when the current five-year PPRS expires in 2010 it be replaced with 'value-based pricing' which involves pre-launch centralised government price setting based on a cost-per-QALY threshold plus periodic ex post reviews. I examine the validity of the OFTs criticisms of the existing PPRS, review its proposals and propose an alternative way forward. I conclude that PPRS has performed well as a procurement bargain between industry and the UK government. It does not, however, incentivise efficient relative prices. That is not its job. I identify a number of problems with the OFT proposals. I recommend that key elements of a reformed UK pharmaceutical environment for 2010 should include an expanded role for HTA but with companies retaining freedom to set prices at launch; HTA use targeted via a contingent value of information approach; a retained backstop PPRS, perhaps moving to an RPI-X type control; the use of risk sharing and non-linear pricing arrangements; measures to ensure more effective therapeutic switching at local level; and measures to improve the take up of cost-effective treatments. Copyright (c) 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

16 CFR 640.3 - General requirements for risk-based pricing notices.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... notice (“risk-based pricing notice”) in the form and manner required by this part if the person both— (1... of, credit to that consumer that is primarily for personal, family, or household purposes; and (2... directly comparing the material terms offered to each consumer and the material terms offered to other...

Low-SES Students and College Outcomes: The Role of AP® Fee Reductions. Research Report No. 2011-9

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wyatt, Jeffrey N.; Mattern, Krista D.

2011-01-01

The College Board offers fee reductions to students based on eligibility for free and reduced-price lunch in an attempt to introduce the benefits of AP® Exam participation to students most at risk in the education system. This report examined college outcomes of low-SES students with a focused investigation comparing students who took an AP Exam…

Using Performance-Based Risk-Sharing Arrangements to Address Uncertainty in Indication-Based Pricing.

PubMed

Yeung, Kai; Li, Meng; Carlson, Josh J

2017-10-01

The rise in pharmaceutical expenditures in recent years has increased health care payer interest in ensuring good value for the money. Indication-based pricing (IBP) sets separate, indication-specific prices paid to the manufacturer according to the expected efficacy of a drug in each of its indications. IBP allows payers to consistently pay for value across indications. While promising, a limitation of IBP as originally conceived is that efficacy estimates are typically based on clinical trial data, which may differ from real-world effectiveness. An outcomes guarantee is a type of performance-based risk-sharing arrangement that adjusts payments according to prospectively tracked outcomes. We suggest that an outcomes guarantee contract, which has been used by some payers, may be adapted to achieve indication-based prices supported by real-world effectiveness. To illustrate the potential of an outcomes guarantee to achieve indication-based prices aligned with real-world value, using a case study of trastuzumab for the treatment of metastatic breast and advanced gastric cancers. We estimated costs and outcomes under traditional IBP (i.e., expected value IBP) and outcomes guarantee frameworks and calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) comparing treatment with and without trastuzumab. Efficacy data came from pivotal trials, whereas effectiveness data came from observational studies. We adjusted trastuzumab prices in order to achieve target ICERs of $150,000 per quality-adjusted life-year under each framework and for each indication. To achieve the ICER target under traditional IBP, the unit price of trastuzumab using efficacy evidence was adjusted for metastatic breast and advanced gastric cancers from an average sales price of $9.17 per mg to $3.50 per mg and $0.93 per mg, respectively. Under an outcomes guarantee, the unit price of trastuzumab using effectiveness evidence was adjusted for metastatic breast cancer and advanced gastric cancer to $8.66 per mg and $0.20 per mg, respectively. Like expected value IBP, outcomes guarantee contracts can also vary payment based on indication. In addition, an outcomes guarantee can also reduce uncertainty regarding effectiveness and better align payment with the actual value of a treatment. No funding supported this study. Carlson reports consulting fees from Genentech, Pfizer, and Seattle Genetics. The other authors have no conflicts of interest to disclose. Study concept and design were contributed by Carlson, Yeung, and Li. Yeung, Carlson, and Li collected and analyzed the data. The manuscript was written primarily by Yeung, along with Carlson and Li, and revised by all the authors.

Managing Disease Risks from Trade: Strategic Behavior with Many Choices and Price Effects.

PubMed

Chitchumnong, Piyayut; Horan, Richard D

2018-03-16

An individual's infectious disease risks, and hence the individual's incentives for risk mitigation, may be influenced by others' risk management choices. If so, then there will be strategic interactions among individuals, whereby each makes his or her own risk management decisions based, at least in part, on the expected decisions of others. Prior work has shown that multiple equilibria could arise in this setting, with one equilibrium being a coordination failure in which individuals make too few investments in protection. However, these results are largely based on simplified models involving a single management choice and fixed prices that may influence risk management incentives. Relaxing these assumptions, we find strategic interactions influence, and are influenced by, choices involving multiple management options and market price effects. In particular, we find these features can reduce or eliminate concerns about multiple equilibria and coordination failure. This has important policy implications relative to simpler models.

Local house prices and mental health.

PubMed

Joshi, Nayan Krishna

2016-03-01

This paper examines the impact of local (county-level) house prices on individual self-reported mental health using individual level data from the United States Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System between 2005 and 2011. Exploiting a fixed-effects model that relies on within-county variations, relative to the corresponding changes in other counties, I find that while individuals are likely to experience worse self-reported mental health when local house prices decline, this association is most pronounced for individuals who are least likely to be homeowners. This finding is not consistent with a prediction from a pure wealth mechanism but rather with the hypothesis that house prices act as an economic barometer. I also demonstrate that the association between self-reported mental health and local house prices is not driven by unemployment or foreclosure. The primary result-that lower local house prices have adverse impact on self-reported mental health of homeowners and renters-is consistent with studies using data from the United Kingdom.

A stable systemic risk ranking in China's banking sector: Based on principal component analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fang, Libing; Xiao, Binqing; Yu, Honghai; You, Qixing

2018-02-01

In this paper, we compare five popular systemic risk rankings, and apply principal component analysis (PCA) model to provide a stable systemic risk ranking for the Chinese banking sector. Our empirical results indicate that five methods suggest vastly different systemic risk rankings for the same bank, while the combined systemic risk measure based on PCA provides a reliable ranking. Furthermore, according to factor loadings of the first component, PCA combined ranking is mainly based on fundamentals instead of market price data. We clearly find that price-based rankings are not as practical a method as fundamentals-based ones. This PCA combined ranking directly shows systemic risk contributions of each bank for banking supervision purpose and reminds banks to prevent and cope with the financial crisis in advance.

Uncertainty, irreversibility, and investment in second-generation biofuels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCarty, Tanner Joseph

The present study formalizes and quantifies the importance of uncertainty for investment in a corn-stover based cellulosic biofuel plant. Using a real options model we recover prices of gasoline that would trigger entry into the market and calculate the portion of that entry trigger price required to cover cost and the portion that corresponds to risk premium. We then discuss the effect of managerial flexibility on the entry risk premium and the prices of gasoline that would trigger mothballing, reactivation, and exit. Results show that the risk premium required by plants to enter the second-generation biofuel market is likely to be substantial. The analysis also reveals that a break-even approach (which ignores the portion of entry price composed of risk premium), and the traditional Marshallian approach (which ignores the portion of entry price composed of both the risk premium and the drift rate), would significantly underestimate the gasoline entry trigger price and the magnitude of that underestimation increases as both volatility and mean of gasoline prices increase. Results also uncover a great deal of hysteresis (i.e. a range of gasoline prices for which there is neither entry nor exit in the market) in entry/exit behavior by plants. Hysteresis increases as gasoline prices become more volatile. Hysteresis suggests that, at the industry level, positive (negative) demand shocks will have a significant impact on prices (production) and a limited impact on production (prices). In combination all of these results suggest that policies supporting second generation biofuels may have fallen short of their targets because of their failure to alleviate uncertainty.

Empirical performance of interpolation techniques in risk-neutral density (RND) estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bahaludin, H.; Abdullah, M. H.

2017-03-01

The objective of this study is to evaluate the empirical performance of interpolation techniques in risk-neutral density (RND) estimation. Firstly, the empirical performance is evaluated by using statistical analysis based on the implied mean and the implied variance of RND. Secondly, the interpolation performance is measured based on pricing error. We propose using the leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV) pricing error for interpolation selection purposes. The statistical analyses indicate that there are statistical differences between the interpolation techniques:second-order polynomial, fourth-order polynomial and smoothing spline. The results of LOOCV pricing error shows that interpolation by using fourth-order polynomial provides the best fitting to option prices in which it has the lowest value error.

At-Risk Funding in Kansas: Free Lunch Status and At-Risk Status. Research Reports

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kansas Association of School Boards, 2016

2016-01-01

The percentage of public school students qualifying for free or reduced price meals has increased from about 33 percent to nearly 50 percent over the past 15 years. Kansas uses the number of students eligible for free (but not reduced-price) lunch to determine the amount of funding school districts receive to provide for services to at-risk…

At-Risk Funding in Kansas: Free Lunch Status and At-Risk Status. Research Reports

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kansas Association of School Boards, 2014

2014-01-01

The percentage of public school students qualifying for free or reduced price meals has increased from about 33 percent to nearly 50 percent over the past 15 years. Kansas uses the number of students eligible for free (but not reduced-price) lunch to determine the amount of funding school districts receive to provide for services to at-risk…

Pricing Medicare's diagnosis-related groups: Charges versus estimated costs

PubMed Central

Price, Kurt F.

1989-01-01

Hospital payments under Medicare's prospective payment system (PPS) are based on prices established for 474 diagnosis-related groups (DRG's). Previous analyses using 1981 data demonstrated that DRG prices based on charges alone were not that different from prices calculated from estimated costs. Data for 1986 were used in this study to show that the differences between the two sets of DRG prices are much larger than previously reported. If DRG prices were once again based on estimated costs instead of the current charge-based prices, payments would be significantly redistributed. PMID:10313356

Relative residential property value as a socio-economic status indicator for health research

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Residential property is reported as the most valuable asset people will own and therefore provides the potential to be used as a socio-economic status (SES) measure. Location is generally recognised as the most important determinant of residential property value. Extending the well-established relationship between poor health and socio-economic disadvantage and the role of residential property in the overall wealth of individuals, this study tested the predictive value of the Relative Location Factor (RLF), a SES measure designed to reflect the relationship between location and residential property value, and six cardiometabolic disease risk factors, central obesity, hypertriglyceridemia, reduced high density lipoprotein (HDL), hypertension, impaired fasting glucose, and high low density lipoprotein (LDL). These risk factors were also summed and expressed as a cumulative cardiometabolic risk (CMR) score. Methods RLF was calculated using a global hedonic regression model from residential property sales transaction data based upon several residential property characteristics, but deliberately blind to location, to predict the selling price of the property. The predicted selling price was divided by the actual selling price and the results interpolated across the study area and classified as tertiles. The measures used to calculate CMR were collected via clinic visits from a population-based cohort study. Models with individual risk factors and the cumulative cardiometabolic risk (CMR) score as dependent variables were respectively tested using log binomial and Poisson generalised linear models. Results A statistically significant relationship was found between RLF, the cumulative CMR score and all but one of the risk factors. In all cases, participants in the most advantaged and intermediate group had a lower risk for cardio-metabolic diseases. For the CMR score the RR for the most advantaged was 19% lower (RR = 0.81; CI 0.76-0.86; p <0.0001) and the middle group was 9% lower (RR = 0.91; CI 0.86-0.95; p <0.0001) than the least advantaged group. Conclusions This paper advances the understanding of the nexus between place, health and SES by providing an objective spatially informed SES measure for testing health outcomes and reported a robust association between RLF and several health measures. PMID:23587373

An island apart? Risks and prices in the Australian cryptomarket drug trade.

PubMed

Cunliffe, Jack; Martin, James; Décary-Hétu, David; Aldridge, Judith

2017-12-01

Australia has a reputation as an anomaly with regard to cryptomarket drug trading, with seemingly disproportionately high levels of activity given its relatively small size, high prices and anecdotal accounts of it being a destination where many foreign-based vendors will not sell. This paper aims to investigate these claims from a risk and prices perspective. By analysing data for over 60,000 drug products available for purchase from eight cryptomarkets in January 2016 this work builds a descriptive picture of the Australian online market in comparison to the rest of the world, before moving onto analyse the prices of drugs available to Australian consumers, both online and though conventional drug supply routes. Results show that the Australian online illicit drugs market is of considerable size, internally isolated and with methamphetamine sales being particularly large by comparison to other countries. Australian cryptomarket vendors sell drugs at significantly higher prices than those listed by their foreign counterparts. Online prices are however broadly comparable to street prices, with the exception of methamphetamine where prices appear to be much lower online. These findings indicate that the perceived stringency of Australian border protection inadvertently increases the competitiveness and local market share of domestic cryptomarket vendors via a consumer side 'risk tariff', challenging the traditionally vendor-oriented drugs risk and prices framework. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

[The price-based certainty of purchase influences consumer behavior for discount].

PubMed

Arihara, Katsuhiko; Ariga, Atsunori; Furuya, Takeshi

2016-04-01

Tversky & Kahneman (1981) reported that most participants decided to drive when they could save money on a low-price good as compared to when they could save on a high-price good, even though the discount prices were same. Although this irrational decision making has been interpreted as a rate-dependent estimation of value (prospect theory), this study newly proposes that it can be explained by the certainty of purchase based on the price of goods. Experiment 1 replicated the previously reported difference in decision making, and additionally demonstrated that participants' certainty of purchase was lower for a high- than a low-price good. When it was emphasized that participants' intention to purchase high- and low-price goods were equally sure, decision making did not significantly differ (Experiment 2). Furthermore, decision making differed based only on the certainty of purchase even,when prices of goods were-same (Experiment 3). Consumers' decision making may be rather rational, depending straightforwardly on the certainty of purchase that is susceptible to price.

Dynamics of electricity market correlations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alvarez-Ramirez, J.; Escarela-Perez, R.; Espinosa-Perez, G.; Urrea, R.

2009-06-01

Electricity market participants rely on demand and price forecasts to decide their bidding strategies, allocate assets, negotiate bilateral contracts, hedge risks, and plan facility investments. However, forecasting is hampered by the non-linear and stochastic nature of price time series. Diverse modeling strategies, from neural networks to traditional transfer functions, have been explored. These approaches are based on the assumption that price series contain correlations that can be exploited for model-based prediction purposes. While many works have been devoted to the demand and price modeling, a limited number of reports on the nature and dynamics of electricity market correlations are available. This paper uses detrended fluctuation analysis to study correlations in the demand and price time series and takes the Australian market as a case study. The results show the existence of correlations in both demand and prices over three orders of magnitude in time ranging from hours to months. However, the Hurst exponent is not constant over time, and its time evolution was computed over a subsample moving window of 250 observations. The computations, also made for two Canadian markets, show that the correlations present important fluctuations over a seasonal one-year cycle. Interestingly, non-linearities (measured in terms of a multifractality index) and reduced price predictability are found for the June-July periods, while the converse behavior is displayed during the December-January period. In terms of forecasting models, our results suggest that non-linear recursive models should be considered for accurate day-ahead price estimation. On the other hand, linear models seem to suffice for demand forecasting purposes.

The transmission of fluctuation among price indices based on Granger causality network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Qingru; Gao, Xiangyun; Wen, Shaobo; Chen, Zhihua; Hao, Xiaoqing

2018-09-01

In this paper, we provide a method of statistical physics to analyze the fluctuation of transmission by constructing Granger causality network among price indices (PIGCN) from a systematical perspective, using complex network theory combined with Granger causality method. In economic system, there are numerous price indices, of which the relationships are extreme complicated. Thus, time series data of 6 types of price indices of China, including 113 kinds of sub price indices, are selected as example of empirical study. Through the analysis of the structure of PIGCN, we identify important price indices with high transmission range, high intermediation capacity, high cohesion and the fluctuation transmission path of price indices, respectively. Furthermore, dynamic relationships among price indices are revealed. Based on these results, we provide several policy implications for monitoring the diffusion of risk of price fluctuation. Our method can also be used to study the price indices of other countries, which is generally applicable.

Modeling stock prices in a portfolio using multidimensional geometric brownian motion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maruddani, Di Asih I.; Trimono

2018-05-01

Modeling and forecasting stock prices of public corporates are important studies in financial analysis, due to their stock price characteristics. Stocks investments give a wide variety of risks. Taking a portfolio of several stocks is one way to minimize risk. Stochastic process of single stock price movements model can be formulated in Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) model. But for a portfolio that consist more than one corporate stock, we need an expansion of GBM Model. In this paper, we use multidimensional Geometric Brownian Motion model. This paper aims to model and forecast two stock prices in a portfolio. These are PT. Matahari Department Store Tbk and PT. Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk on period January 4, 2016 until April 21, 2017. The goodness of stock price forecast value is based on Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). As the results, we conclude that forecast two stock prices in a portfolio using multidimensional GBM give less MAPE than using GBM for single stock price respectively. We conclude that multidimensional GBM is more appropriate for modeling stock prices, because the price of each stock affects each other.

Electricity prices in a competitive environment: Marginal cost pricing of generation services and financial status of electric utilities. A preliminary analysis through 2015

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

1997-08-01

The emergence of competitive markets for electricity generation services is changing the way that electricity is and will be priced in the United States. This report presents the results of an analysis that focuses on two questions: (1) How are prices for competitive generation services likely to differ from regulated prices if competitive prices are based on marginal costs rather than regulated {open_quotes}cost-of-service{close_quotes} pricing? (2) What impacts will the competitive pricing of generation services (based on marginal costs) have on electricity consumption patterns, production costs, and the financial integrity patterns, production costs, and the financial integrity of electricity suppliers? Thismore » study is not intended to be a cost-benefit analysis of wholesale or retail competition, nor does this report include an analysis of the macroeconomic impacts of competitive electricity prices.« less

Study on Market Stability and Price Limit of Chinese Stock Index Futures Market: An Agent-Based Modeling Perspective.

PubMed

Xiong, Xiong; Nan, Ding; Yang, Yang; Yongjie, Zhang

2015-01-01

This paper explores a method of managing the risk of the stock index futures market and the cross-market through analyzing the effectiveness of price limits on the Chinese Stock Index 300 futures market. We adopt a cross-market artificial financial market (include the stock market and the stock index futures market) as a platform on which to simulate the operation of the CSI 300 futures market by changing the settings of price limits. After comparing the market stability under different price limits by appropriate liquidity and volatility indicators, we find that enhancing price limits or removing price limits both play a negative impact on market stability. In contrast, a positive impact exists on market stability if the existing price limit is maintained (increase of limit by10%, down by 10%) or it is broadened to a proper extent. Our study provides reasonable advice for a price limit setting and risk management for CSI 300 futures.

Study on Market Stability and Price Limit of Chinese Stock Index Futures Market: An Agent-Based Modeling Perspective

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

This paper explores a method of managing the risk of the stock index futures market and the cross-market through analyzing the effectiveness of price limits on the Chinese Stock Index 300 futures market. We adopt a cross-market artificial financial market (include the stock market and the stock index futures market) as a platform on which to simulate the operation of the CSI 300 futures market by changing the settings of price limits. After comparing the market stability under different price limits by appropriate liquidity and volatility indicators, we find that enhancing price limits or removing price limits both play a negative impact on market stability. In contrast, a positive impact exists on market stability if the existing price limit is maintained (increase of limit by10%, down by 10%) or it is broadened to a proper extent. Our study provides reasonable advice for a price limit setting and risk management for CSI 300 futures. PMID:26571135

16 CFR Appendix B to Part 698 - Model Forms for Risk-Based Pricing and Credit Score Disclosure Exception Notices

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... Credit Score Disclosure Exception Notices B Appendix B to Part 698 Commercial Practices FEDERAL TRADE COMMISSION THE FAIR CREDIT REPORTING ACT MODEL FORMS AND DISCLOSURES Pt. 698, App. B Appendix B to Part 698... set of circumstances as indicated by the title of that model form. 2. Model form B-1 is for use in...

7 CFR 59.202 - Mandatory daily reporting for barrows and gilts.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... live weight basis; and (iv) The base price and premiums and discounts paid for carcass characteristics... unavailable due to pricing that is determined on a delayed basis. The packer shall report information on such... reporting day, unless such information is unavailable due to pricing that is determined on a delayed basis...

A comparison of alternative methods for measuring cigarette prices.

PubMed

Chaloupka, Frank J; Tauras, John A; Strasser, Julia H; Willis, Gordon; Gibson, James T; Hartman, Anne M

2015-05-01

Government agencies, public health organisations and tobacco control researchers rely on accurate estimates of cigarette prices for a variety of purposes. Since the 1950s, the Tax Burden on Tobacco (TBOT) has served as the most widely used source of this price data despite its limitations. This paper compares the prices and collection methods of the TBOT retail-based data and the 2003 and 2006/2007 waves of the population-based Tobacco Use Supplement to the Current Population Survey (TUS-CPS). From the TUS-CPS, we constructed multiple state-level measures of cigarette prices, including weighted average prices per pack (based on average prices for single-pack purchases and average prices for carton purchases) and compared these with the weighted average price data reported in the TBOT. We also constructed several measures of tax avoidance from the TUS-CPS self-reported data. For the 2003 wave, the average TUS-CPS price was 71 cents per pack less than the average TBOT price; for the 2006/2007 wave, the difference was 47 cents. TUS-CPS and TBOT prices were also significantly different at the state level. However, these differences varied widely by state due to tax avoidance opportunities, such as cross-border purchasing. The TUS-CPS can be used to construct valid measures of cigarette prices. Unlike the TBOT, the TUS-CPS captures the effect of price-reducing marketing strategies, as well as tax avoidance practices and non-traditional types of purchasing. Thus, self-reported data like TUS-CPS appear to have advantages over TBOT in estimating the 'real' price that smokers face. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Estimated burden of cardiovascular disease and value-based price range for evolocumab in a high-risk, secondary-prevention population in the US payer context.

PubMed

Toth, Peter P; Danese, Mark; Villa, Guillermo; Qian, Yi; Beaubrun, Anne; Lira, Armando; Jansen, Jeroen P

2017-06-01

To estimate real-world cardiovascular disease (CVD) burden and value-based price range of evolocumab for a US-context, high-risk, secondary-prevention population. Burden of CVD was assessed using the UK-based Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) in order to capture complete CV burden including CV mortality. Patients on standard of care (SOC; high-intensity statins) in CPRD were selected based on eligibility criteria of FOURIER, a phase 3 CV outcomes trial of evolocumab, and categorized into four cohorts: high-risk prevalent atherosclerotic CVD (ASCVD) cohort (n = 1448), acute coronary syndrome (ACS) (n = 602), ischemic stroke (IS) (n = 151), and heart failure (HF) (n = 291) incident cohorts. The value-based price range for evolocumab was assessed using a previously published economic model. The model incorporated CPRD CV event rates and considered CV event reduction rate ratios per 1 mmol/L reduction in low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (LDL-C) from a meta-analysis of statin trials by the Cholesterol Treatment Trialists Collaboration (CTTC), i.e. CTTC relationship. Multiple-event rates of composite CV events (ACS, IS, or coronary revascularization) per 100 patient-years were 12.3 for the high-risk prevalent ASCVD cohort, and 25.7, 13.3, and 23.3, respectively, for incident ACS, IS, and HF cohorts. Approximately one-half (42%) of the high-risk ASCVD patients with a new CV event during follow-up had a subsequent CV event. Combining these real-world event rates and the CTTC relationship in the economic model, the value-based price range (credible interval) under a willingness-to-pay threshold of $150,000/quality-adjusted life-year gained for evolocumab was $11,990 ($9,341-$14,833) to $16,856 ($12,903-$20,678) in ASCVD patients with baseline LDL-C levels ≥70 mg/dL and ≥100 mg/dL, respectively. Real-world CVD burden is substantial. Using the observed CVD burden in CPRD and the CTTC relationship, the cost-effectiveness analysis showed that, accounting for uncertainties, the expected value-based price for evolocumab is higher than its current annual cost, as long as the payer discount off list price is greater than 20%.

Reserve growth during financial volatility in a technologically challenging world

USGS Publications Warehouse

Klett, Timothy R.; Gautier, Donald L.

2010-01-01

Reserve growth (growth-to-known) is the addition of oil and gas quantities to reported proved or proved-plus-probable reserves in discovered fields. The amount of reserve growth fluctuates through time with prevailing economic and technological conditions. Most reserve additions are the result of investment in field operations and in development technology. These investments can be justified by higher prices of oil and gas, the desire to maintain cash flow, and by greater recovery efficiency in well established fields. The price/cost ratio affects decisions for field abandonment and (or) implementation of improved recovery methods. Although small- to medium-size fields might show higher percentages of reserve growth, a relatively few giant fields contribute most volumetric reserve growth, indicating that companies may prefer to invest in existing fields with low geologic and production risk and an established infrastructure in order to increase their price/cost relationship. Whereas many previous estimates of reserve growth were based on past trends of reported reserves, future reserve growth is expected to be greatly affected by financial volatility and fluctuating economic and technological conditions.

An analysis of security price risk and return among publicly traded pharmacy corporations.

PubMed

Gilligan, Adrienne M; Skrepnek, Grant H

2013-01-01

Community pharmacies have been subject to intense and increasing competition in the past several decades. To determine the security price risk and rate of return of publicly traded pharmacy corporations present on the major U.S. stock exchanges from 1930 to 2009. The Center of Research in Security Prices (CRSP) database was used to examine monthly security-level stock market prices in this observational retrospective study. The primary outcome of interest was the equity risk premium, with analyses focusing upon financial metrics associated with risk and return based upon modern portfolio theory (MPT) including: abnormal returns (i.e., alpha), volatility (i.e., beta), and percentage of returns explained (i.e., adjusted R(2)). Three equilibrium models were estimated using random-effects generalized least squares (GLS): 1) the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM); 2) Fama-French Three-Factor Model; and 3) Carhart Four-Factor Model. Seventy-five companies were examined from 1930 to 2009, with overall adjusted R(2) values ranging from 0.13 with the CAPM to 0.16 with the Four-Factor model. Alpha was not significant within any of the equilibrium models across the entire 80-year time period, though was found from 1999 to 2009 in the Three- and Four-Factor models to be associated with a large, significant, and negative risk-adjusted abnormal returns of -33.84%. Volatility varied across specific time periods based upon the financial model employed. This investigation of risk and return within publicly listed pharmacy corporations from 1930 to 2009 found that substantial losses were incurred particularly from 1999 to 2009, with risk-adjusted security valuations decreasing by one-third. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Effect of Drink Price and Next-Day Responsibilities on College Student Drinking: A Behavioral Economic Analysis

PubMed Central

Skidmore, Jessica R.; Murphy, James G.

2010-01-01

More than ¾ of U.S. college students report a heavy drinking episode (HDE; 5/4 or more drinks during an occasion for a man/woman) in the previous 90 days. This pattern of drinking is associated with various risks and social problems for both the heavy-drinkers and the larger college community. According to behavioral economics, college student drinking is a contextually-bound phenomenon that is impacted by contingencies such as price and competing alternative reinforcers, including next-day responsibilities such as college classes. The current study systematically examined the role of these variables by using hypothetical alcohol purchase tasks to analyze alcohol consumption and expenditures among college students who reported recent heavy drinking (N = 207, 53.1% women). The impact of gender and the personality risk factor sensation-seeking were also assessed. Students were asked how many drinks they would purchase and consume across 17 drink prices and 3 next-day responsibility scenarios (no responsibilities, a 10:00 AM class without a test, and a 10:00 AM class with a test). Mean levels of hypothetical consumption were highly sensitive to both drink price and next-day responsibility, with the lowest drinking levels associated with high drink prices and a next-day test. Men and participants with greater levels of sensation-seeking reported more demand overall (greater consumption and expenditures) than women and students with low sensation-seeking personality. Contrary to our hypotheses women appeared to be less sensitive to increases in price than men. The results suggest that increasing drink prices and morning academic requirements may be useful in preventing heavy drinking among college students. PMID:21142332

Rising gasoline prices increase new motorcycle sales and fatalities.

PubMed

Zhu, He; Wilson, Fernando A; Stimpson, Jim P; Hilsenrath, Peter E

2015-12-01

We examined whether sales of new motorcycles was a mechanism to explain the relationship between motorcycle fatalities and gasoline prices. The data came from the Motorcycle Industry Council, Energy Information Administration and Fatality Analysis Reporting System for 1984-2009. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) regressions estimated the effect of inflation-adjusted gasoline price on motorcycle sales and logistic regressions estimated odds ratios (ORs) between new and old motorcycle fatalities when gasoline prices increase. New motorcycle sales were positively correlated with gasoline prices (r = 0.78) and new motorcycle fatalities (r = 0.92). ARIMA analysis estimated that a US$1 increase in gasoline prices would result in 295,000 new motorcycle sales and, consequently, 233 new motorcycle fatalities. Compared to crashes on older motorcycle models, those on new motorcycles were more likely to be young riders, occur in the afternoon, in clear weather, with a large engine displacement, and without alcohol involvement. Riders on new motorcycles were more likely to be in fatal crashes relative to older motorcycles (OR 1.14, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 1.02-1.28) when gasoline prices increase. Our findings suggest that, in response to increasing gasoline prices, people tend to purchase new motorcycles, and this is accompanied with significantly increased crash risk. There are several policy mechanisms that can be used to lower the risk of motorcycle crash injuries through the mechanism of gas prices and motorcycle sales such as raising awareness of motorcycling risks, enhancing licensing and testing requirements, limiting motorcycle power-to-weight ratios for inexperienced riders, and developing mandatory training programs for new riders.

Three essays on agricultural price volatility and the linkages between agricultural and energy markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Feng

This dissertation contains three essays. In the first essay I use a volatility spillover model to find evidence of significant spillovers from crude oil prices to corn cash and futures prices, and that these spillover effects are time-varying. Results reveal that corn markets have become much more connected to crude oil markets after the introduction of the Energy Policy Act of 2005. Furthermore, crude oil prices transmit positive volatility spillovers into corn prices and movements in corn prices become more energy-driven as the ethanol gasoline consumption ratio increases. Based on this strong volatility link between crude oil and corn prices, a new cross hedging strategy for managing corn price risk using oil futures is examined and its performance studied. Results show that this cross hedging strategy provides only slightly better hedging performance compared to traditional hedging in corn futures markets alone. The implication is that hedging corn price risk in corn futures markets alone can still provide relatively satisfactory performance in the biofuel era. The second essay studies the spillover effect of biofuel policy on participation in the Conservation Reserve Program. Landowners' participation decisions are modeled using a real options framework. A novel aspect of the model is that it captures the structural change in agriculture caused by rising biofuel production. The resulting model is used to simulate the spillover effect under various conditions. In particular, I simulate how increased growth in agricultural returns, persistence of the biofuel production boom, and the volatility surrounding agricultural returns, affect conservation program participation decisions. Policy implications of these results are also discussed. The third essay proposes a methodology to construct a risk-adjusted implied volatility measure that removes the forecasting bias of the model-free implied volatility measure. The risk adjustment is based on a closed-form relationship between the expectation of future volatility and the model-free implied volatility assuming a jump-diffusion model. I use a GMM estimation framework to identify the key model parameters needed to apply the model. An empirical application to corn futures implied volatility is used to illustrate the methodology and demonstrate differences between my approach and the model-free implied volatility using observed corn option prices. I compare the risk-adjusted forecast with the unadjusted forecast as well as other alternatives; and results suggest that the risk-adjusted volatility is unbiased, informationally more efficient, and has superior predictive power over the alternatives considered.

Strategic behavior and marriage payments: theory and evidence from Senegal.

PubMed

Gaspart, Frederic; Platteau, Jean-Philippe

2010-01-01

This article proposes an original theory of marriage payments based on insights gained from firsthand information collected in the Senegal River valley. This theory postulates that decisions about the bride-price, which are made by the bride's father, take into account the likely effects of the amount set on the risk of ill-treatment of the wife and the risk of marriage failure. Based on a sequential game with three players (the bride's father, the husband, and the wife) and a matching process, it leads to a number of important predictions that are tested against Senegalese data relating to bride-prices and various characteristics of women. The empirical results confirm that parents behave strategically by keeping bride-prices down so as to reduce the risk of marriage failure for their daughters. Other interesting effects on marriage payments and the probability of separation are also highlighted, stressing the role of the bride's bargaining power in her own family.

Risks, prices, and positions: A social network analysis of illegal drug trafficking in the world-economy.

PubMed

Boivin, Rémi

2014-03-01

Illegal drug prices are extremely high, compared to similar goods. There is, however, considerable variation in value depending on place, market level and type of drugs. A prominent framework for the study of illegal drugs is the "risks and prices" model (Reuter & Kleiman, 1986). Enforcement is seen as a "tax" added to the regular price. In this paper, it is argued that such economic models are not sufficient to explain price variations at country-level. Drug markets are analysed as global trade networks in which a country's position has an impact on various features, including illegal drug prices. This paper uses social network analysis (SNA) to explain price markups between pairs of countries involved in the trafficking of illegal drugs between 1998 and 2007. It aims to explore a simple question: why do prices increase between two countries? Using relational data from various international organizations, separate trade networks were built for cocaine, heroin and cannabis. Wholesale price markups are predicted with measures of supply, demand, risks of seizures, geographic distance and global positioning within the networks. Reported prices (in $US) and purchasing power parity-adjusted values are analysed. Drug prices increase more sharply when drugs are headed to countries where law enforcement imposes higher costs on traffickers. The position and role of a country in global drug markets are also closely associated with the value of drugs. Price markups are lower if the destination country is a transit to large potential markets. Furthermore, price markups for cocaine and heroin are more pronounced when drugs are exported to countries that are better positioned in the legitimate world-economy, suggesting that relations in legal and illegal markets are directed in opposite directions. Consistent with the world-system perspective, evidence is found of coherent world drug markets driven by both local realities and international relations. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Pharmaceutical Pricing and Market Access Outlook Europe 2010-HealthNetwork Communications' fourth annual conference. 24-25 March 2010, London, UK.

PubMed

Ogbighele, Erhimuvi

2010-05-01

The HealthNetwork Communications' Fourth Annual Conference on Pharmaceutical Pricing and Market Access Outlook Europe 2010, held in London, included topics covering the challenges facing the pharmaceutical industry, specifically related to pricing and reimbursement, and demonstrating the value of a pharmaceutical. This conference report highlights selected presentations on a global perspective on pricing and reimbursement, with an analysis of the specific, unique challenges in the six major markets, Europe, the US, Canada, Germany, the UK and Japan, and a discussion of the benefits of risk-sharing schemes.

Remarks on a financial inverse problem by means of Monte Carlo Methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cuomo, Salvatore; Di Somma, Vittorio; Sica, Federica

2017-10-01

Estimating the price of a barrier option is a typical inverse problem. In this paper we present a numerical and statistical framework for a market with risk-free interest rate and a risk asset, described by a Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM). After approximating the risk asset with a numerical method, we find the final option price by following an approach based on sequential Monte Carlo methods. All theoretical results are applied to the case of an option whose underlying is a real stock.

Price returns efficiency of the Shanghai A-Shares

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Long, Wang Jiang; Jaaman, Saiful Hafizah; Samsudin, Humaida Banu

2014-06-01

Beta measured from the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) is the most widely used risk to estimate expected return. In this paper factors that influence Shanghai A-share stock return based on CAPM are explored and investigated. Price data of 312 companies listed on Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) from the year 2000 to 2011 are investigated. This study employed the Fama-MacBeth cross-sectional method to avoid weakness of traditional CAPM. In addition, this study improves the model by adjusting missing data. Findings of this study justifies that systematic risk can explain the portfolios' returns of China SSE stock market.

Managing Financial Risk to Hydropower in Snow Dominated Systems: A Hetch Hetchy Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamilton, A. L.; Characklis, G. W.; Reed, P. M.

2017-12-01

Hydropower generation in snow dominated systems is vulnerable to severe shortfalls in years with low snowpack. Meanwhile, generators are also vulnerable to variability in electricity demand and wholesale electricity prices, both of which can be impacted by factors such as temperature and natural gas price. Year-to-year variability in these underlying stochastic variables leads to financial volatility and the threat of low revenue periods, which can be highly disruptive for generators with large fixed operating costs and debt service. In this research, the Hetch Hetchy Power system is used to characterize financial risk in a snow dominated hydropower system. Owned and operated by the San Francisco Public Utilities Commission, Hetch Hetchy generates power for its own municipal operations and sells excess power to irrigation districts, as well as on the wholesale market. This investigation considers the effects of variability in snowpack, temperature, and natural gas price on Hetch Hetchy Power's yearly revenues. This information is then used to evaluate the effectiveness of various financial risk management tools for hedging against revenue variability. These tools are designed to mitigate against all three potential forms of financial risk (i.e. low hydropower generation, low electricity demand, and low/high electricity price) and include temperature-based derivative contracts, natural gas price-based derivative contracts, and a novel form of snowpack-based index insurance contract. These are incorporated into a comprehensive risk management portfolio, along with self-insurance in which the utility buffers yearly revenue volatility using a contingency fund. By adaptively managing the portfolio strategy, a utility can efficiently spread yearly risks over a multi-year time horizon. The Borg Multiobjective Evolutionary Algorithm is used to generate a set of Pareto optimal portfolio strategies, which are used to compare the tradeoffs in objectives such as expected revenues, low revenues, revenue volatility, and portfolio complexity.

Modeling spot markets for electricity and pricing electricity derivatives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ning, Yumei

Spot prices for electricity have been very volatile with dramatic price spikes occurring in restructured market. The task of forecasting electricity prices and managing price risk presents a new challenge for market players. The objectives of this dissertation are: (1) to develop a stochastic model of price behavior and predict price spikes; (2) to examine the effect of weather forecasts on forecasted prices; (3) to price electricity options and value generation capacity. The volatile behavior of prices can be represented by a stochastic regime-switching model. In the model, the means of the high-price and low-price regimes and the probabilities of switching from one regime to the other are specified as functions of daily peak load. The probability of switching to the high-price regime is positively related to load, but is still not high enough at the highest loads to predict price spikes accurately. An application of this model shows how the structure of the Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland market changed when market-based offers were allowed, resulting in higher price spikes. An ARIMA model including temperature, seasonal, and weekly effects is estimated to forecast daily peak load. Forecasts of load under different assumptions about weather patterns are used to predict changes of price behavior given the regime-switching model of prices. Results show that the range of temperature forecasts from a normal summer to an extremely warm summer cause relatively small increases in temperature (+1.5%) and load (+3.0%). In contrast, the increases in prices are large (+20%). The conclusion is that the seasonal outlook forecasts provided by NOAA are potentially valuable for predicting prices in electricity markets. The traditional option models, based on Geometric Brownian Motion are not appropriate for electricity prices. An option model using the regime-switching framework is developed to value a European call option. The model includes volatility risk and allows changes in prices and volatility to be correlated. The results show that the value of a power plant is much higher using the financial option model than using traditional discounted cash flow.

Is a Price Increase Policy Enough for Adolescent Smokers?: Factors Affecting the Effectiveness of Increasing Cigarette Prices Among Korean Adolescent Smokers.

PubMed

Lee, Yong Suk; Kim, Hong-Suk; Kim, Hyung-Do; Yoo, Ki-Bong; Jang, Sung-In; Park, Eun-Cheol

2016-10-01

Cigarette pricing policy is one tool for controlling smoking behavior on a national scale. It is unclear, however, what effects such policy has on adolescents and which characteristic subgroups of adolescents are more or less sensitive to cigarette pricing policy. Our data came from the 2013 Korea Youth Risk Behavior Web-based Survey. The dependent variable was whether or not a participant was classified as a "persistent smokers," defined as a smoker who would continue smoking despite any price increase. Other variables of interest were smoking days (quantity), previous attempts to stop smoking, and previous education on smoking cessation. The statistical analysis was performed using weighted data and the SURVEYFREQ and SURVEYLOGISTIC procedures in SAS 9.3. Among 7094 adolescent smokers (5349 males and 1745 females), 19.9% of males and 25.1% of females reported as persistent smokers. Compared with light smokers, heavy smokers are more likely to be persistent smokers (male: odds ratio [OR] = 2.45, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.04-2.95, P value < .001; female: OR = 3.23, 95% CI = 2.44-4.27, P value < .001). When we stratified the data by household income, previous attempts to stop smoking, and previous education on smoking cessation, that trend remained statistically significant. Because heavier smokers with higher risk of health-related consequences were less sensitive to pricing policy than mild smokers, pricing policy alone is not enough to reduce the societal burden caused by smoking. We suggest that additional cessation policy is needed along with pricing policy for adolescents with heavier smoking behavior in Korea. This study shows that heavy smokers are more likely to be persistent smokers despite the cigarette price increase policy, compared with light smokers in Korean adolescents. Because heavier smokers were less sensitive to pricing policy than mild smokers, pricing policy alone is not enough to reduce the societal burden caused by smoking. We suggest that additional tobacco control policies should be evaluated and effective ones implemented in addition to cigarette prices to reduce smoking among regular adolescent smokers. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Pricing geometric Asian rainbow options under fractional Brownian motion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Lu; Zhang, Rong; Yang, Lin; Su, Yang; Ma, Feng

2018-03-01

In this paper, we explore the pricing of the assets of Asian rainbow options under the condition that the assets have self-similar and long-range dependence characteristics. Based on the principle of no arbitrage, stochastic differential equation, and partial differential equation, we obtain the pricing formula for two-asset rainbow options under fractional Brownian motion. Next, our Monte Carlo simulation experiments show that the derived pricing formula is accurate and effective. Finally, our sensitivity analysis of the influence of important parameters, such as the risk-free rate, Hurst exponent, and correlation coefficient, on the prices of Asian rainbow options further illustrate the rationality of our pricing model.

Model risk for European-style stock index options.

PubMed

Gençay, Ramazan; Gibson, Rajna

2007-01-01

In empirical modeling, there have been two strands for pricing in the options literature, namely the parametric and nonparametric models. Often, the support for the nonparametric methods is based on a benchmark such as the Black-Scholes (BS) model with constant volatility. In this paper, we study the stochastic volatility (SV) and stochastic volatility random jump (SVJ) models as parametric benchmarks against feedforward neural network (FNN) models, a class of neural network models. Our choice for FNN models is due to their well-studied universal approximation properties of an unknown function and its partial derivatives. Since the partial derivatives of an option pricing formula are risk pricing tools, an accurate estimation of the unknown option pricing function is essential for pricing and hedging. Our findings indicate that FNN models offer themselves as robust option pricing tools, over their sophisticated parametric counterparts in predictive settings. There are two routes to explain the superiority of FNN models over the parametric models in forecast settings. These are nonnormality of return distributions and adaptive learning.

U.S. Residential Photovoltaic (PV) System Prices, Q4 2013 Benchmarks: Cash Purchase, Fair Market Value, and Prepaid Lease Transaction Prices

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Davidson, C.; James, T. L.; Margolis, R.

The price of photovoltaic (PV) systems in the United States (i.e., the cost to the system owner) has dropped precipitously in recent years, led by substantial reductions in global PV module prices. This report provides a Q4 2013 update for residential PV systems, based on an objective methodology that closely approximates the book value of a PV system. Several cases are benchmarked to represent common variation in business models, labor rates, and module choice. We estimate a weighted-average cash purchase price of $3.29/W for modeled standard-efficiency, polycrystalline-silicon residential PV systems installed in the United States. This is a 46% declinemore » from the 2013-dollar-adjusted price reported in the Q4 2010 benchmark report. In addition, this report frames the cash purchase price in the context of key price metrics relevant to the continually evolving landscape of third-party-owned PV systems by benchmarking the minimum sustainable lease price and the fair market value of residential PV systems.« less

What is a new drug worth? An innovative model for performance-based pricing.

PubMed

Dranitsaris, G; Dorward, K; Owens, R C; Schipper, H

2015-05-01

This article focuses on a novel method to derive prices for new pharmaceuticals by making price a function of drug performance. We briefly review current models for determining price for a new product and discuss alternatives that have historically been favoured by various funding bodies. The progressive approach to drug pricing, proposed herein, may better address the views and concerns of multiple stakeholders in a developed healthcare system by acknowledging and incorporating input from disparate parties via comprehensive and successive negotiation stages. In proposing a valid construct for performance-based pricing, the following model seeks to achieve several crucial objectives: earlier and wider access to new treatments; improved transparency in drug pricing; multi-stakeholder involvement through phased pricing negotiations; recognition of innovative product performance and latent changes in value; an earlier and more predictable return for developers without sacrificing total return on investment (ROI); more involved and informed risk sharing by the end-user. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Derivatives and Risk Management in the Petroleum, Natural Gas, and Electricity Industries

EIA Publications

2002-01-01

In February 2002 the Secretary of Energy directed the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to prepare a report on the nature and use of derivative contracts in the petroleum, natural gas, and electricity industries. Derivatives are contracts ('financial instruments') that are used to manage risk, especially price risk.

OFT, VBP: QED?

PubMed

Claxton, Karl

2007-06-01

The report by the Office of Fair Trading (OFT) on the UK pharmaceutical price regulation scheme (PPRS) recommends the reform of the current scheme, which is a combination of profit and price controls, to one where price is based on the health benefits offered by a pharmaceutical. On closer examination some of the more commonly expressed concerns about these proposals do not seem to be well founded. In principle, the OFT's recommendations may contribute to allocative and dynamic efficiency in the NHS. However, there are some dangers and the details of how it will be implemented are crucial. For example, value-based pricing with an inappropriate threshold for cost-effectiveness, or an inappropriate pricing structure, could lead to technologies being adopted at prices where their benefits, in terms of health outcome, do not offset the health displaced elsewhere in the NHS, a situation in which the NHS is damaged rather than improved by innovation. A failure to account for uncertainty and the value of evidence in negotiating prices and coverage could also undermine the evidence base for future NHS practice. Whatever view is taken, the OFT report will inevitably shape the scope of future policy debates about value, guidance, price and innovation.

Pharmaceutical policies: effects of reference pricing, other pricing, and purchasing policies.

PubMed

Acosta, Angela; Ciapponi, Agustín; Aaserud, Morten; Vietto, Valeria; Austvoll-Dahlgren, Astrid; Kösters, Jan Peter; Vacca, Claudia; Machado, Manuel; Diaz Ayala, Diana Hazbeydy; Oxman, Andrew D

2014-10-16

Pharmaceuticals are important interventions that could improve people's health. Pharmaceutical pricing and purchasing policies are used as cost-containment measures to determine or affect the prices that are paid for drugs. Internal reference pricing establishes a benchmark or reference price within a country which is the maximum level of reimbursement for a group of drugs. Other policies include price controls, maximum prices, index pricing, price negotiations and volume-based pricing. To determine the effects of pharmaceutical pricing and purchasing policies on health outcomes, healthcare utilisation, drug expenditures and drug use. We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), part of The Cochrane Library (including the Effective Practice and Organisation of Care Group Register) (searched 22/10/2012); MEDLINE In-Process & Other Non-Indexed Citations and MEDLINE, Ovid (searched 22/10/2012); EconLit, ProQuest (searched 22/10/2012); PAIS International, ProQuest (searched 22/10/2012); World Wide Political Science Abstracts, ProQuest (searched 22/10/2012); INRUD Bibliography (searched 22/10/2012); Embase, Ovid (searched 14/12/2010); NHSEED, part of The Cochrane Library (searched 08/12/2010); LILACS, VHL (searched 14/12/2010); International Political Science Abstracts (IPSA), Ebsco (searched (17/12/2010); OpenSIGLE (searched 21/12/10); WHOLIS, WHO (searched 17/12/2010); World Bank (Documents and Reports) (searched 21/12/2010); Jolis (searched 09/10/2011); Global Jolis (searched 09/10/2011) ; OECD (searched 30/08/2005); OECD iLibrary (searched 30/08/2005); World Bank eLibrary (searched 21/12/2010); WHO - The Essential Drugs and Medicines web site (browsed 21/12/2010). Policies in this review were defined as laws; rules; financial and administrative orders made by governments, non-government organisations or private insurers. To be included a study had to include an objective measure of at least one of the following outcomes: drug use, healthcare utilisation and health outcomes or costs (expenditures); the study had to be a randomised trial, non-randomised trial, interrupted time series (ITS), repeated measures (RM) study or a controlled before-after study of a pharmaceutical pricing or purchasing policy for a large jurisdiction or system of care. Two review authors independently extracted data and assessed the risk of bias. Results were summarised in tables. There were too few comparisons with similar outcomes across studies to allow for meta-analysis or meaningful exploration of heterogeneity. We included 18 studies (seven identified in the update): 17 of reference pricing, one of which also assessed maximum prices, and one of index pricing. None of the studies were trials. All included studies used ITS or RM analyses. The quality of the evidence was low or very low for all outcomes. Three reference pricing studies reported cumulative drug expenditures at one year after the transition period. Two studies reported the median relative insurer's cumulative expenditures, on both reference drugs and cost share drugs, of -18%, ranging from -36% to 3%. The third study reported relative insurer's cumulative expenditures on total market of -1.5%. Four reference pricing studies reported median relative insurer's expenditures on both reference drugs and cost share drugs of -10%, ranging from -53% to 4% at one year after the transition period. Four reference pricing studies reported a median relative change of 15% in reference drugs prescriptions at one year (range -14% to 166%). Three reference pricing studies reported a median relative change of -39% in cost share drugs prescriptions at one year (range -87% to -17%). One study of index pricing reported a relative change of 55% (95% CI 11% to 98%) in the use of generic drugs and -43% relative change (95% CI -67% to -18%) in brand drugs at six months after the transition period. The same study reported a price change of -5.3% and -1.1% for generic and brand drugs respectively six months after the start of the policy. One study of maximum prices reported a relative change in monthly sales volume of all statins of 21% (95% CI 19% to 24%) after one year of the introduction of this policy. Four studies reported effects on mortality and healthcare utilisation, however they were excluded because of study design limitations. The majority of the studies of pricing and purchasing policies that met our inclusion criteria evaluated reference pricing. We found that internal reference pricing may reduce expenditures in the short term by shifting drug use from cost share drugs to reference drugs. Reference pricing may reduce related expenditures with effects on reference drugs but the effect on expenditures of cost share drugs is uncertain. Reference pricing may increase the use of reference drugs and may reduce the use of cost share drugs. The analysis and reporting of the effects on patients' drug expenditures were limited in the included studies and administration costs were not reported. Reference pricing effects on health are uncertain due to lack of evidence. The effects of other purchasing and pricing policies are until now uncertain due to sparse evidence. However, index pricing may reduce the use of brand drugs, increase the use of generic drugs, and may also slightly reduce the price of the generic drug when compared with no intervention.

Comparing risk in conventional and organic dairy farming in the Netherlands: an empirical analysis.

PubMed

Berentsen, P B M; Kovacs, K; van Asseldonk, M A P M

2012-07-01

This study was undertaken to contribute to the understanding of why most dairy farmers do not convert to organic farming. Therefore, the objective of this research was to assess and compare risks for conventional and organic farming in the Netherlands with respect to gross margin and the underlying price and production variables. To investigate the risk factors a farm accountancy database was used containing panel data from both conventional and organic representative Dutch dairy farms (2001-2007). Variables with regard to price and production risk were identified using a gross margin analysis scheme. Price risk variables were milk price and concentrate price. The main production risk variables were milk yield per cow, roughage yield per hectare, and veterinary costs per cow. To assess risk, an error component implicit detrending method was applied and the resulting detrended standard deviations were compared between conventional and organic farms. Results indicate that the risk included in the gross margin per cow is significantly higher in organic farming. This is caused by both higher price and production risks. Price risks are significantly higher in organic farming for both milk price and concentrate price. With regard to production risk, only milk yield per cow poses a significantly higher risk in organic farming. Copyright © 2012 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Conceptual Cost Estimating

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, J. A.

1983-01-01

Kennedy Space Center data aid in efficient construction-cost managment. Report discusses development and use of NASA TR-1508, Kennedy Space Center Aerospace Construction price book for preparing conceptual budget, funding cost estimating, and preliminary cost engineering reports. Report based on actual bid prices and Government estimates.

Contract Source Selection: An Analysis of Lowest Price Technically Acceptable and Tradeoff Strategies

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-06-01

thorough market research, acquisition professionals must decide at an early stage which source selection strategy (lowest price technically...minimizing risk and ensuring best value for all stakeholders. On the basis of thorough market research, acquisition professionals must decide at an early...price-based, market -driven environment from requirements development through properly disposal. Source selection must be 8 made on a ‘best value

Electricity market pricing, risk hedging and modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Xu

In this dissertation, we investigate the pricing, price risk hedging/arbitrage, and simplified system modeling for a centralized LMP-based electricity market. In an LMP-based market model, the full AC power flow model and the DC power flow model are most widely used to represent the transmission system. We investigate the differences of dispatching results, congestion pattern, and LMPs for the two power flow models. An appropriate LMP decomposition scheme to quantify the marginal costs of the congestion and real power losses is critical for the implementation of financial risk hedging markets. However, the traditional LMP decomposition heavily depends on the slack bus selection. In this dissertation we propose a slack-independent scheme to break LMP down into energy, congestion, and marginal loss components by analyzing the actual marginal cost of each bus at the optimal solution point. The physical and economic meanings of the marginal effect at each bus provide accurate price information for both congestion and losses, and thus the slack-dependency of the traditional scheme is eliminated. With electricity priced at the margin instead of the average value, the market operator typically collects more revenue from power sellers than that paid to power buyers. According to the LMP decomposition results, the revenue surplus is then divided into two parts: congestion charge surplus and marginal loss revenue surplus. We apply the LMP decomposition results to the financial tools, such as financial transmission right (FTR) and loss hedging right (LHR), which have been introduced to hedge against price risks associated to congestion and losses, to construct a full price risk hedging portfolio. The two-settlement market structure and the introduction of financial tools inevitably create market manipulation opportunities. We investigate several possible market manipulation behaviors by virtual bidding and propose a market monitor approach to identify and quantify such behavior. Finally, the complexity of the power market and size of the transmission grid make it difficult for market participants to efficiently analyze the long-term market behavior. We propose a simplified power system commercial model by simulating the PTDFs of critical transmission bottlenecks of the original system.

Higher prices, higher quality? Evidence from German nursing homes.

PubMed

Herr, Annika; Hottenrott, Hanna

2016-02-01

This study investigates the relationship between prices and quality of 7400 German nursing homes. We use a cross section of public quality reports for all German nursing homes, which had been evaluated between 2010 and 2013 by external institutions. Our analysis is based on multivariate regressions in a two stage least squares framework, where we instrument prices to explain their effect on quality controlling for income, nursing home density, demographics, labour market characteristics, and infrastructure at the regional level. Descriptive analysis shows that prices and quality do not only vary across nursing homes, but also across counties and federal states and that quality and prices correlate positively. Second, the econometric analysis, which accounts for the endogenous relation between negotiated price and reported quality, shows that quality indeed positively depends on prices. In addition, more places in nursing homes per people in need are correlated with both lower prices and higher quality. Finally, unobserved factors at the federal state level capture some of the variation of reported quality across nursing homes. Our results suggest that higher prices increase quality. Furthermore, since reported quality and prices vary substantially across federal states, we conclude that the quality and prices of long-term care facilities may well be compared within federal states but not across. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Financial methods in competitive electricity markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deng, Shijie

The restructuring of electric power industry has become a global trend. As reforms to the electricity supply industry spread rapidly across countries and states, many political and economical issues arise as a result of people debating over which approach to adopt in restructuring the vertically integrated electricity industry. This dissertation addresses issues of transmission pricing, electricity spot price modeling, as well as risk management and asset valuation in a competitive electricity industry. A major concern in the restructuring of the electricity industries is the design of a transmission pricing scheme that will ensure open-access to the transmission networks. I propose a priority-pricing scheme for zonal access to the electric power grid that is uniform across all buses in each zone. The Independent System Operator (ISO) charges bulk power traders a per unit ex ante transmission access fee based on the expected option value of the generated power with respect to the random zonal spot prices. The zonal access fee depends on the injection zone and a self-selected strike price determining the scheduling priority of the transaction. Inter zonal transactions are charged (or credited) with an additional ex post congestion fee that equals the zonal spot price difference. The unit access fee entitles a bulk power trader to either physical injection of one unit of energy or a compensation payment that equals to the difference between the realized zonal spot price and the selected strike price. The ISO manages congestion so as to minimize net compensation payments and thus, curtailment probabilities corresponding to a particular strike price may vary by bus. The rest of the dissertation deals with the issues of modeling electricity spot prices, pricing electricity financial instruments and the corresponding risk management applications. Modeling the spot prices of electricity is important for the market participants who need to understand the risk factors in pricing electricity financial instruments such as electricity forwards, options and cross-commodity derivatives. It is also essential for the analysis of financial risk management, asset valuation, and project financing. In the setting of diffusion processes with multiple types of jumps, I examine three mean-reversion models for modeling the electricity spot prices. I impose some structure on the coefficients of the diffusion processes, which allows me to easily compute the prices of contingent claims (or, financial instruments) on electricity by Fourier methods. I derive the pricing formulas for various electricity derivatives and examine how the prices vary with different modeling assumptions. I demonstrate a couple of risk management applications of the electricity financial instruments. I also construct a real options approach to value electric power generation and transmission assets both with and without accounting for the operating characteristics of the assets. The implications of the mean-reversion jump-diffusion models on financial risk management and real asset valuation in competitive electricity markets are illustrated. With a discrete trinomial lattice modeling the underlying commodity prices, I estimate the effects of operational characteristics on the asset valuation by means of numerical examples that incorporate these aspects using stochastic dynamic programming. (Abstract shortened by UMI.)

Continuous-time mean-variance portfolio selection with value-at-risk and no-shorting constraints

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Wei

2012-01-01

An investment problem is considered with dynamic mean-variance(M-V) portfolio criterion under discontinuous prices which follow jump-diffusion processes according to the actual prices of stocks and the normality and stability of the financial market. The short-selling of stocks is prohibited in this mathematical model. Then, the corresponding stochastic Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman(HJB) equation of the problem is presented and the solution of the stochastic HJB equation based on the theory of stochastic LQ control and viscosity solution is obtained. The efficient frontier and optimal strategies of the original dynamic M-V portfolio selection problem are also provided. And then, the effects on efficient frontier under the value-at-risk constraint are illustrated. Finally, an example illustrating the discontinuous prices based on M-V portfolio selection is presented.

Impacts of Base-Case and Post-Contingency Constraint Relaxations on Static and Dynamic Operational Security

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salloum, Ahmed

Constraint relaxation by definition means that certain security, operational, or financial constraints are allowed to be violated in the energy market model for a predetermined penalty price. System operators utilize this mechanism in an effort to impose a price-cap on shadow prices throughout the market. In addition, constraint relaxations can serve as corrective approximations that help in reducing the occurrence of infeasible or extreme solutions in the day-ahead markets. This work aims to capture the impact constraint relaxations have on system operational security. Moreover, this analysis also provides a better understanding of the correlation between DC market models and AC real-time systems and analyzes how relaxations in market models propagate to real-time systems. This information can be used not only to assess the criticality of constraint relaxations, but also as a basis for determining penalty prices more accurately. Constraint relaxations practice was replicated in this work using a test case and a real-life large-scale system, while capturing both energy market aspects and AC real-time system performance. System performance investigation included static and dynamic security analysis for base-case and post-contingency operating conditions. PJM peak hour loads were dynamically modeled in order to capture delayed voltage recovery and sustained depressed voltage profiles as a result of reactive power deficiency caused by constraint relaxations. Moreover, impacts of constraint relaxations on operational system security were investigated when risk based penalty prices are used. Transmission lines in the PJM system were categorized according to their risk index and each category was as-signed a different penalty price accordingly in order to avoid real-time overloads on high risk lines. This work also extends the investigation of constraint relaxations to post-contingency relaxations, where emergency limits are allowed to be relaxed in energy market models. Various scenarios were investigated to capture and compare between the impacts of base-case and post-contingency relaxations on real-time system performance, including the presence of both relaxations simultaneously. The effect of penalty prices on the number and magnitude of relaxations was investigated as well.

Estimated Effects of Different Alcohol Taxation and Price Policies on Health Inequalities: A Mathematical Modelling Study.

PubMed

Meier, Petra S; Holmes, John; Angus, Colin; Ally, Abdallah K; Meng, Yang; Brennan, Alan

2016-02-01

While evidence that alcohol pricing policies reduce alcohol-related health harm is robust, and alcohol taxation increases are a WHO "best buy" intervention, there is a lack of research comparing the scale and distribution across society of health impacts arising from alternative tax and price policy options. The aim of this study is to test whether four common alcohol taxation and pricing strategies differ in their impact on health inequalities. An econometric epidemiological model was built with England 2014/2015 as the setting. Four pricing strategies implemented on top of the current tax were equalised to give the same 4.3% population-wide reduction in total alcohol-related mortality: current tax increase, a 13.4% all-product duty increase under the current UK system; a value-based tax, a 4.0% ad valorem tax based on product price; a strength-based tax, a volumetric tax of £0.22 per UK alcohol unit (= 8 g of ethanol); and minimum unit pricing, a minimum price threshold of £0.50 per unit, below which alcohol cannot be sold. Model inputs were calculated by combining data from representative household surveys on alcohol purchasing and consumption, administrative and healthcare data on 43 alcohol-attributable diseases, and published price elasticities and relative risk functions. Outcomes were annual per capita consumption, consumer spending, and alcohol-related deaths. Uncertainty was assessed via partial probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) and scenario analysis. The pricing strategies differ as to how effects are distributed across the population, and, from a public health perspective, heavy drinkers in routine/manual occupations are a key group as they are at greatest risk of health harm from their drinking. Strength-based taxation and minimum unit pricing would have greater effects on mortality among drinkers in routine/manual occupations (particularly for heavy drinkers, where the estimated policy effects on mortality rates are as follows: current tax increase, -3.2%; value-based tax, -2.9%; strength-based tax, -6.1%; minimum unit pricing, -7.8%) and lesser impacts among drinkers in professional/managerial occupations (for heavy drinkers: current tax increase, -1.3%; value-based tax, -1.4%; strength-based tax, +0.2%; minimum unit pricing, +0.8%). Results from the PSA give slightly greater mean effects for both the routine/manual (current tax increase, -3.6% [95% uncertainty interval (UI) -6.1%, -0.6%]; value-based tax, -3.3% [UI -5.1%, -1.7%]; strength-based tax, -7.5% [UI -13.7%, -3.9%]; minimum unit pricing, -10.3% [UI -10.3%, -7.0%]) and professional/managerial occupation groups (current tax increase, -1.8% [UI -4.7%, +1.6%]; value-based tax, -1.9% [UI -3.6%, +0.4%]; strength-based tax, -0.8% [UI -6.9%, +4.0%]; minimum unit pricing, -0.7% [UI -5.6%, +3.6%]). Impacts of price changes on moderate drinkers were small regardless of income or socioeconomic group. Analysis of uncertainty shows that the relative effectiveness of the four policies is fairly stable, although uncertainty in the absolute scale of effects exists. Volumetric taxation and minimum unit pricing consistently outperform increasing the current tax or adding an ad valorem tax in terms of reducing mortality among the heaviest drinkers and reducing alcohol-related health inequalities (e.g., in the routine/manual occupation group, volumetric taxation reduces deaths more than increasing the current tax in 26 out of 30 probabilistic runs, minimum unit pricing reduces deaths more than volumetric tax in 21 out of 30 runs, and minimum unit pricing reduces deaths more than increasing the current tax in 30 out of 30 runs). Study limitations include reducing model complexity by not considering a largely ineffective ban on below-tax alcohol sales, special duty rates covering only small shares of the market, and the impact of tax fraud or retailer non-compliance with minimum unit prices. Our model estimates that, compared to tax increases under the current system or introducing taxation based on product value, alcohol-content-based taxation or minimum unit pricing would lead to larger reductions in health inequalities across income groups. We also estimate that alcohol-content-based taxation and minimum unit pricing would have the largest impact on harmful drinking, with minimal effects on those drinking in moderation.

Measuring multifractality of stock price fluctuation using multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Ying; Zhuang, Xin-tian; Jin, Xiu

2009-06-01

Analyzing the Shanghai stock price index daily returns using MF-DFA method, it is found that there are two different types of sources for multifractality in time series, namely, fat-tailed probability distributions and non-linear temporal correlations. Based on that, a sliding window of 240 frequency data in 5 trading days was used to study stock price index fluctuation. It is found that when the stock price index fluctuates sharply, a strong variability is clearly characterized by the generalized Hurst exponents h(q). Therefore, two measures, Δh and σ, based on generalized Hurst exponents were proposed to compare financial risks before and after Price Limits and Reform of Non-tradable Shares. The empirical results verify the validity of the measures, and this has led to a better understanding of complex stock markets.

Pricing schemes for new drugs: a welfare analysis.

PubMed

Levaggi, Rosella

2014-02-01

Drug price regulation is acquiring increasing significance in the investment choices of the pharmaceutical sector. The overall objective is to determine an optimal trade-off between the incentives for innovation, consumer protection, and value for money. However, price regulation is itself a source of distortion. In this study, we examine the welfare properties of listing through a bargaining process and value-based pricing schemes. The latter are superior instruments to uncertain listing processes for maximising total welfare, but the distribution of the benefits between consumers and the industry depends on rate of rebate chosen by the regulator. However, through an appropriate choice, it is always possible to define a value-based pricing scheme with risk sharing, which both consumers and the industry prefer to an uncertain bargaining process. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Volatility of bitumen prices and implications for the industry

USGS Publications Warehouse

Attanasi, E.D.

2008-01-01

Sustained crude oil price increases have led to increased investment in and production of Canadian bitumen to supplement North American oil supplies. For new projects, the evaluation of profitability is based on a prediction of the future price path of bitumen and ultimately light/medium crude oil. This article examines the relationship between the bitumen and light crude oil prices in the context of a simple error-correction economic-adjustment model. The analysis shows bitumen prices to be significantly more volatile than light crude prices. Also, the dominant effect of an oil price shock on bitumen prices is immediate and is amplified, both in absolute terms and percentage price changes. It is argued that the bitumen industry response to such market risks will likely be a realignment toward vertical integration via new downstream construction, mergers, or on a de facto basis by the establishment of alliances. ?? 2008 International Association for Mathematical Geology.

Latent class analysis of accident risks in usage-based insurance: Evidence from Beijing.

PubMed

Jin, Wen; Deng, Yinglu; Jiang, Hai; Xie, Qianyan; Shen, Wei; Han, Weijian

2018-06-01

Car insurance is quickly becoming a big data industry, with usage-based insurance (UBI) poised to potentially change the business of insurance. Telematics data, which are transmitted from wireless devices in car, are widely used in UBI to obtain individual-level travel and driving characteristics. While most existing studies have introduced telematics data into car insurance pricing, the telematics-related characteristics are directly obtained from the raw data. In this study, we propose to quantify drivers' familiarity with their driving routes and develop models to quantify drivers' accident risks using the telematics data. In addition, we build a latent class model to study the heterogeneity in travel and driving styles based on the telematics data, which has not been investigated in literature. Our main results include: (1) the improvement to the model fit is statistically significant by adding telematics-related characteristics; (2) drivers' familiarity with their driving trips is critical to identify high risk drivers, and the relationship between drivers' familiarity and accident risks is non-linear; (3) the drivers can be classified into two classes, where the first class is the low risk class with 0.54% of its drivers reporting accidents, and the second class is the high risk class with 20.66% of its drivers reporting accidents; and (4) for the low risk class, drivers with high probability of reporting accidents can be identified by travel-behavior-related characteristics, while for the high risk class, they can be identified by driving-behavior-related characteristics. The driver's familiarity will affect the probability of reporting accidents for both classes. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

12 CFR Appendix C to Part 325 - Risk-Based Capital for State Non-Member Banks: Market Risk

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... commodity prices. (2) Specific risk means changes in the market value of specific positions due to factors... its risk measurement and risk management systems at least annually. (c) Market risk factors. The bank's internal model must use risk factors sufficient to measure the market risk inherent in all covered...

International Banking: Implementation of Risk-Based Capital Adequacy Standards

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-01-01

exchange rates (foreign exchange rate risk), and in the prices of securities and trded debt instruments (position risk), credit risk would be addressed first...banks face many other risks, such as changes in the value of their holdings due to mo Ve- ments in interest rates (interest rate risk), in foreign

Risk Modelling of Agricultural Products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nugrahani, E. H.

2017-03-01

In the real world market, agricultural commodity are imposed with fluctuating prices. This means that the price of agricultural products are relatively volatile, which means that agricultural business is a quite risky business for farmers. This paper presents some mathematical models to model such risks in the form of its volatility, based on certain assumptions. The proposed models are time varying volatility model, as well as time varying volatility with mean reversion and with seasonal mean equation models. Implementation on empirical data show that agricultural products are indeed risky.

A quantile-based Time at Risk: A new approach for assessing risk in financial markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bolgorian, Meysam; Raei, Reza

2013-11-01

In this paper, we provide a new measure for evaluation of risk in financial markets. This measure is based on the return interval of critical events in financial markets or other investment situations. Our main goal was to devise a model like Value at Risk (VaR). As VaR, for a given financial asset, probability level and time horizon, gives a critical value such that the likelihood of loss on the asset over the time horizon exceeds this value is equal to the given probability level, our concept of Time at Risk (TaR), using a probability distribution function of return intervals, provides a critical time such that the probability that the return interval of a critical event exceeds this time equals the given probability level. As an empirical application, we applied our model to data from the Tehran Stock Exchange Price Index (TEPIX) as a financial asset (market portfolio) and reported the results.

Managing Uncertainty and Risk in Public-sector Investments

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-04-30

parameters with the most predictive power. There are, of course , methods other than market-based Capital Asset Pricing for determining asset...harness new information as it becomes available. For private-sector firms, prices provide two important types of information: 1. The rate at which...based valuation, thus providing a basis for testing the validity of using the internal efficiencies to derive a “synthetic price” for the value of a

Pricing index-based catastrophe bonds: Part 2: Object-oriented design issues and sensitivity analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Unger, André J. A.

2010-02-01

This work is the second installment in a two-part series, and focuses on object-oriented programming methods to implement an augmented-state variable approach to aggregate the PCS index and introduce the Bermudan-style call feature into the proposed CAT bond model. The PCS index is aggregated quarterly using a discrete Asian running-sum formulation. The resulting aggregate PCS index augmented-state variable is used to specify the payoff (principle) on the CAT bond based on reinsurance layers. The purpose of the Bermudan-style call option is to allow the reinsurer to minimize their interest rate risk exposure on making fixed coupon payments under prevailing interest rates. A sensitivity analysis is performed to determine the impact of uncertainty in the frequency and magnitude of hurricanes on the price of the CAT bond. Results indicate that while the CAT bond is highly sensitive to the natural variability in the frequency of landfalling hurricanes between El Ninõ and non-El Ninõ years, it remains relatively insensitive to uncertainty in the magnitude of damages. In addition, results indicate that the maximum price of the CAT bond is insensitive to whether it is engineered to cover low frequency high magnitude events in a 'high' reinsurance layer relative to high frequency low magnitude events in a 'low' reinsurance layer. Also, while it is possible for the reinsurer to minimize their interest rate risk exposure on the fixed coupon payments, the impact of this risk on the price of the CAT bond appears small relative to the natural variability in the CAT bond price, and consequently catastrophic risk, due to uncertainty in the frequency and magnitude of landfalling hurricanes.

Support vector machine for day ahead electricity price forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Razak, Intan Azmira binti Wan Abdul; Abidin, Izham bin Zainal; Siah, Yap Keem; Rahman, Titik Khawa binti Abdul; Lada, M. Y.; Ramani, Anis Niza binti; Nasir, M. N. M.; Ahmad, Arfah binti

2015-05-01

Electricity price forecasting has become an important part of power system operation and planning. In a pool- based electric energy market, producers submit selling bids consisting in energy blocks and their corresponding minimum selling prices to the market operator. Meanwhile, consumers submit buying bids consisting in energy blocks and their corresponding maximum buying prices to the market operator. Hence, both producers and consumers use day ahead price forecasts to derive their respective bidding strategies to the electricity market yet reduce the cost of electricity. However, forecasting electricity prices is a complex task because price series is a non-stationary and highly volatile series. Many factors cause for price spikes such as volatility in load and fuel price as well as power import to and export from outside the market through long term contract. This paper introduces an approach of machine learning algorithm for day ahead electricity price forecasting with Least Square Support Vector Machine (LS-SVM). Previous day data of Hourly Ontario Electricity Price (HOEP), generation's price and demand from Ontario power market are used as the inputs for training data. The simulation is held using LSSVMlab in Matlab with the training and testing data of 2004. SVM that widely used for classification and regression has great generalization ability with structured risk minimization principle rather than empirical risk minimization. Moreover, same parameter settings in trained SVM give same results that absolutely reduce simulation process compared to other techniques such as neural network and time series. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for the proposed model shows that SVM performs well compared to neural network.

Quantitative model of price diffusion and market friction based on trading as a mechanistic random process.

PubMed

Daniels, Marcus G; Farmer, J Doyne; Gillemot, László; Iori, Giulia; Smith, Eric

2003-03-14

We model trading and price formation in a market under the assumption that order arrival and cancellations are Poisson random processes. This model makes testable predictions for the most basic properties of markets, such as the diffusion rate of prices (which is the standard measure of financial risk) and the spread and price impact functions (which are the main determinants of transaction cost). Guided by dimensional analysis, simulation, and mean-field theory, we find scaling relations in terms of order flow rates. We show that even under completely random order flow the need to store supply and demand to facilitate trading induces anomalous diffusion and temporal structure in prices.

Quantitative Model of Price Diffusion and Market Friction Based on Trading as a Mechanistic Random Process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daniels, Marcus G.; Farmer, J. Doyne; Gillemot, László; Iori, Giulia; Smith, Eric

2003-03-01

We model trading and price formation in a market under the assumption that order arrival and cancellations are Poisson random processes. This model makes testable predictions for the most basic properties of markets, such as the diffusion rate of prices (which is the standard measure of financial risk) and the spread and price impact functions (which are the main determinants of transaction cost). Guided by dimensional analysis, simulation, and mean-field theory, we find scaling relations in terms of order flow rates. We show that even under completely random order flow the need to store supply and demand to facilitate trading induces anomalous diffusion and temporal structure in prices.

Entropy-based financial asset pricing.

PubMed

Ormos, Mihály; Zibriczky, Dávid

2014-01-01

We investigate entropy as a financial risk measure. Entropy explains the equity premium of securities and portfolios in a simpler way and, at the same time, with higher explanatory power than the beta parameter of the capital asset pricing model. For asset pricing we define the continuous entropy as an alternative measure of risk. Our results show that entropy decreases in the function of the number of securities involved in a portfolio in a similar way to the standard deviation, and that efficient portfolios are situated on a hyperbola in the expected return-entropy system. For empirical investigation we use daily returns of 150 randomly selected securities for a period of 27 years. Our regression results show that entropy has a higher explanatory power for the expected return than the capital asset pricing model beta. Furthermore we show the time varying behavior of the beta along with entropy.

Entropy-Based Financial Asset Pricing

PubMed Central

Ormos, Mihály; Zibriczky, Dávid

2014-01-01

We investigate entropy as a financial risk measure. Entropy explains the equity premium of securities and portfolios in a simpler way and, at the same time, with higher explanatory power than the beta parameter of the capital asset pricing model. For asset pricing we define the continuous entropy as an alternative measure of risk. Our results show that entropy decreases in the function of the number of securities involved in a portfolio in a similar way to the standard deviation, and that efficient portfolios are situated on a hyperbola in the expected return – entropy system. For empirical investigation we use daily returns of 150 randomly selected securities for a period of 27 years. Our regression results show that entropy has a higher explanatory power for the expected return than the capital asset pricing model beta. Furthermore we show the time varying behavior of the beta along with entropy. PMID:25545668

48 CFR 2152.216-70 - Fixed price with limited cost redetermination-risk charge.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... cost redetermination-risk charge. 2152.216-70 Section 2152.216-70 Federal Acquisition Regulations....216-70 Fixed price with limited cost redetermination—risk charge. As prescribed in 2116.270-1(a), insert the following clause when a risk charge is negotiated: Fixed Price With Limited Cost...

The Network of Counterparty Risk: Analysing Correlations in OTC Derivatives.

PubMed

Nanumyan, Vahan; Garas, Antonios; Schweitzer, Frank

2015-01-01

Counterparty risk denotes the risk that a party defaults in a bilateral contract. This risk not only depends on the two parties involved, but also on the risk from various other contracts each of these parties holds. In rather informal markets, such as the OTC (over-the-counter) derivative market, institutions only report their aggregated quarterly risk exposure, but no details about their counterparties. Hence, little is known about the diversification of counterparty risk. In this paper, we reconstruct the weighted and time-dependent network of counterparty risk in the OTC derivatives market of the United States between 1998 and 2012. To proxy unknown bilateral exposures, we first study the co-occurrence patterns of institutions based on their quarterly activity and ranking in the official report. The network obtained this way is further analysed by a weighted k-core decomposition, to reveal a core-periphery structure. This allows us to compare the activity-based ranking with a topology-based ranking, to identify the most important institutions and their mutual dependencies. We also analyse correlations in these activities, to show strong similarities in the behavior of the core institutions. Our analysis clearly demonstrates the clustering of counterparty risk in a small set of about a dozen US banks. This not only increases the default risk of the central institutions, but also the default risk of peripheral institutions which have contracts with the central ones. Hence, all institutions indirectly have to bear (part of) the counterparty risk of all others, which needs to be better reflected in the price of OTC derivatives.

The Network of Counterparty Risk: Analysing Correlations in OTC Derivatives

PubMed Central

Nanumyan, Vahan; Garas, Antonios; Schweitzer, Frank

2015-01-01

Counterparty risk denotes the risk that a party defaults in a bilateral contract. This risk not only depends on the two parties involved, but also on the risk from various other contracts each of these parties holds. In rather informal markets, such as the OTC (over-the-counter) derivative market, institutions only report their aggregated quarterly risk exposure, but no details about their counterparties. Hence, little is known about the diversification of counterparty risk. In this paper, we reconstruct the weighted and time-dependent network of counterparty risk in the OTC derivatives market of the United States between 1998 and 2012. To proxy unknown bilateral exposures, we first study the co-occurrence patterns of institutions based on their quarterly activity and ranking in the official report. The network obtained this way is further analysed by a weighted k-core decomposition, to reveal a core-periphery structure. This allows us to compare the activity-based ranking with a topology-based ranking, to identify the most important institutions and their mutual dependencies. We also analyse correlations in these activities, to show strong similarities in the behavior of the core institutions. Our analysis clearly demonstrates the clustering of counterparty risk in a small set of about a dozen US banks. This not only increases the default risk of the central institutions, but also the default risk of peripheral institutions which have contracts with the central ones. Hence, all institutions indirectly have to bear (part of) the counterparty risk of all others, which needs to be better reflected in the price of OTC derivatives. PMID:26335223

Maintenance service contract model for heavy equipment in mining industry using principal agent theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pakpahan, Eka K. A.; Iskandar, Bermawi P.

2015-12-01

Mining industry is characterized by a high operational revenue, and hence high availability of heavy equipment used in mining industry is a critical factor to ensure the revenue target. To maintain high avaliability of the heavy equipment, the equipment's owner hires an agent to perform maintenance action. Contract is then used to control the relationship between the two parties involved. The traditional contracts such as fixed price, cost plus or penalty based contract studied is unable to push agent's performance to exceed target, and this in turn would lead to a sub-optimal result (revenue). This research deals with designing maintenance contract compensation schemes. The scheme should induce agent to select the highest possible maintenance effort level, thereby pushing agent's performance and achieve maximum utility for both parties involved. Principal agent theory is used as a modeling approach due to its ability to simultaneously modeled owner and agent decision making process. Compensation schemes considered in this research includes fixed price, cost sharing and revenue sharing. The optimal decision is obtained using a numerical method. The results show that if both parties are risk neutral, then there are infinite combination of fixed price, cost sharing and revenue sharing produced the same optimal solution. The combination of fixed price and cost sharing contract results in the optimal solution when the agent is risk averse, while the optimal combination of fixed price and revenue sharing contract is obtained when agent is risk averse. When both parties are risk averse, the optimal compensation scheme is a combination of fixed price, cost sharing and revenue sharing.

Drug pricing reform in China: analysis of piloted approaches and potential impact of the reform.

PubMed

Chen, Yixi; Hu, Shanlian; Dong, Peng; Kornfeld, Åsa; Jaros, Patrycja; Yan, Jing; Ma, Fangfang; Toumi, Mondher

2016-01-01

In 2009, the Chinese government launched a national healthcare reform programme aiming to control healthcare expenditure and increase the quality of care. As part of this programme, a new drug pricing reform was initiated on 1 June 2015. The objective of this study was to describe the changing landscape of drug pricing policy in China and analyse the potential impact of the reform. The authors conducted thorough research on the drug pricing reform using three Chinese databases (CNKI, Wanfang, and Weipu), Chinese health authority websites, relevant press releases, and pharmaceutical blogs and discussion forums. This research was complemented with qualitative research based on targeted interviews with key Chinese opinion leaders representing the authorities' and prescribers' perspectives. With the current reform, the government has attempted to replace its direct control over the prices of reimbursable drugs with indirect, incentive-driven influence. Although the exact implementation of the reform remains unclear at the moment, the changes introduced so far and the pilot project designs indicate that China is considering adaptation of some form of internal and external reference pricing policies, commonly used in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries. Several challenges related to the potential new mechanism were identified: 1) the risk of hospital underfunding, if hospital funding reform is not prioritised; 2) the risk of promoting the use of cheap, low-quality drugs, if a reliable quality control system is not in place and discrepancy between the available drugs is present; 3) the risk of increasing disparity in access to care between poor and rich regions, in case of country-wide price convergence; and 4) the risk of industry underinvestment, resulting in reduced competition, issues with quality and sustainability of supply, and potentially negative social impact. Foreign pricing policies cannot be transferred to China without prioritising historical, cultural, and economic contextualisation. Otherwise, the new policy may be counterproductive and affect the whole healthcare chain, as well as the health outcomes of Chinese patients.

Two Stochastic Phases of Tick-wise Price Fluctuation and the Price Prediction Generator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanaka-Yamawaki, Mieko; Tokuoka, Seiji

2007-07-01

We report in this paper the existence of two different stochastic phases in the tick-wise price fluctuations. Based on this observation, we improve our old method of developing the evolutional strategy to predict the direction of the tick-wise price movements. We obtain a stable predictive power even in the region where the old method had a difficulty.

Based on BP Neural Network Stock Prediction

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Liu, Xiangwei; Ma, Xin

2012-01-01

The stock market has a high profit and high risk features, on the stock market analysis and prediction research has been paid attention to by people. Stock price trend is a complex nonlinear function, so the price has certain predictability. This article mainly with improved BP neural network (BPNN) to set up the stock market prediction model, and…

Determinants of the Price of High-Tech Metals: An Event Study

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wanner, Markus, E-mail: markus.wanner@mrm.uni-augsburg.de; Gaugler, Tobias; Gleich, Benedikt

The growing demand for high-tech products has resulted in strong growth in demand for certain minor metals. In combination with production concentrated in China, this caused strong and unpredicted price movements in recent years. As a result, manufacturing companies have to cope with additional risks. However, the detailed reasons for the price development are only partially understood. Therefore, we analyzed empirically which determinants can be assigned to price movements and performed an event study on the high-tech metals neodymium, indium, and gallium. Based on our dataset of news items, we were able to find coinciding events to almost 90% ofmore » all price jumps (recall). We showed that if any information about these events occurred with a probability of over 50% there would also be a price jump within 10 days (precision). However, the classical set of price determinants has to be extended for these specific markets, as we found unorthodox factors like holidays or weather that may be indicators for price movements. Therefore, we hope that our study supports industry for instance in performing more informed short-term planning of metals purchasing based on information about specific events.« less

Medical male circumcision: How does price affect the risk-profile of take-up?

PubMed

Thornton, Rebecca; Godlonton, Susan

2016-11-01

The benefit of male circumcision is greatest among men who are most at risk of HIV infection. Encouraging this population of men to get circumcised maximizes the benefit that can be achieved through the scale-up of circumcision programs. This paper examines how the price of circumcision affects the risk profile of men who receive a voluntary medical circumcision. In 2010, 1649 uncircumcised adult men in urban Malawi were interviewed and provided a voucher for a subsidized voluntary medical male circumcision, at randomly assigned prices. Clinical data were collected indicating whether the men in the study received a circumcision. Men who took-up circumcision with a zero-priced voucher were 25 percentage points less likely than those who took-up with a positive-price voucher, to be from a tribe that traditionally circumcises (p=0.101). Zero-priced vouchers also brought in men with more sexual partners in the past year (p=0.075) and past month (p=0.003). None of the men who were most at risk of HIV at baseline (those with multiple partners and who did not use a condom the last time they had sex) received a circumcision if they were offered a positive-priced voucher. Lowering the price to zero increased circumcision take-up to 25% for men of this risk group. The effect of price on take-up was largest among those at highest risk (p=0.096). Reducing the price of circumcision surgery to zero can increase take-up among those who are most at risk of HIV infection. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Estimated Effects of Different Alcohol Taxation and Price Policies on Health Inequalities: A Mathematical Modelling Study

PubMed Central

Meier, Petra S.; Holmes, John; Angus, Colin; Ally, Abdallah K.; Meng, Yang; Brennan, Alan

2016-01-01

Introduction While evidence that alcohol pricing policies reduce alcohol-related health harm is robust, and alcohol taxation increases are a WHO “best buy” intervention, there is a lack of research comparing the scale and distribution across society of health impacts arising from alternative tax and price policy options. The aim of this study is to test whether four common alcohol taxation and pricing strategies differ in their impact on health inequalities. Methods and Findings An econometric epidemiological model was built with England 2014/2015 as the setting. Four pricing strategies implemented on top of the current tax were equalised to give the same 4.3% population-wide reduction in total alcohol-related mortality: current tax increase, a 13.4% all-product duty increase under the current UK system; a value-based tax, a 4.0% ad valorem tax based on product price; a strength-based tax, a volumetric tax of £0.22 per UK alcohol unit (= 8 g of ethanol); and minimum unit pricing, a minimum price threshold of £0.50 per unit, below which alcohol cannot be sold. Model inputs were calculated by combining data from representative household surveys on alcohol purchasing and consumption, administrative and healthcare data on 43 alcohol-attributable diseases, and published price elasticities and relative risk functions. Outcomes were annual per capita consumption, consumer spending, and alcohol-related deaths. Uncertainty was assessed via partial probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) and scenario analysis. The pricing strategies differ as to how effects are distributed across the population, and, from a public health perspective, heavy drinkers in routine/manual occupations are a key group as they are at greatest risk of health harm from their drinking. Strength-based taxation and minimum unit pricing would have greater effects on mortality among drinkers in routine/manual occupations (particularly for heavy drinkers, where the estimated policy effects on mortality rates are as follows: current tax increase, −3.2%; value-based tax, −2.9%; strength-based tax, −6.1%; minimum unit pricing, −7.8%) and lesser impacts among drinkers in professional/managerial occupations (for heavy drinkers: current tax increase, −1.3%; value-based tax, −1.4%; strength-based tax, +0.2%; minimum unit pricing, +0.8%). Results from the PSA give slightly greater mean effects for both the routine/manual (current tax increase, −3.6% [95% uncertainty interval (UI) −6.1%, −0.6%]; value-based tax, −3.3% [UI −5.1%, −1.7%]; strength-based tax, −7.5% [UI −13.7%, −3.9%]; minimum unit pricing, −10.3% [UI −10.3%, −7.0%]) and professional/managerial occupation groups (current tax increase, −1.8% [UI −4.7%, +1.6%]; value-based tax, −1.9% [UI −3.6%, +0.4%]; strength-based tax, −0.8% [UI −6.9%, +4.0%]; minimum unit pricing, −0.7% [UI −5.6%, +3.6%]). Impacts of price changes on moderate drinkers were small regardless of income or socioeconomic group. Analysis of uncertainty shows that the relative effectiveness of the four policies is fairly stable, although uncertainty in the absolute scale of effects exists. Volumetric taxation and minimum unit pricing consistently outperform increasing the current tax or adding an ad valorem tax in terms of reducing mortality among the heaviest drinkers and reducing alcohol-related health inequalities (e.g., in the routine/manual occupation group, volumetric taxation reduces deaths more than increasing the current tax in 26 out of 30 probabilistic runs, minimum unit pricing reduces deaths more than volumetric tax in 21 out of 30 runs, and minimum unit pricing reduces deaths more than increasing the current tax in 30 out of 30 runs). Study limitations include reducing model complexity by not considering a largely ineffective ban on below-tax alcohol sales, special duty rates covering only small shares of the market, and the impact of tax fraud or retailer non-compliance with minimum unit prices. Conclusions Our model estimates that, compared to tax increases under the current system or introducing taxation based on product value, alcohol-content-based taxation or minimum unit pricing would lead to larger reductions in health inequalities across income groups. We also estimate that alcohol-content-based taxation and minimum unit pricing would have the largest impact on harmful drinking, with minimal effects on those drinking in moderation. PMID:26905063

Behavioral economics survey of patients with type 1 and type 2 diabetes.

PubMed

Emoto, Naoya; Okajima, Fumitaka; Sugihara, Hitoshi; Goto, Rei

2015-01-01

Adherence to treatment and the metabolic control of diabetes are challenging in many patients with diabetes. The theory of neuroeconomics can provide important clues for understanding unreasonable human behavior concerning decisions between outcomes occurring at different time points. We investigated patients with type 1 and type 2 diabetes to determine whether patients who are at a risk of developing complications are less risk averse. We also examined whether patients with type 1 and type 2 diabetes have different behavioral traits in decision making under risk. We conducted a behavioral economics survey of 219 outpatients, 66 with type 1 diabetes and 153 with type 2 diabetes. All patients had been referred by general practitioners or other departments in the hospital. At the time of the survey, levels of hemoglobin A1c were not significantly different between patients with type 1 and type 2 diabetes. Patients with type 2 diabetes showed a lower response rate to the survey compared with patients with type 1 diabetes (71.9% vs 87.9%, P<0.01). Logistic regression analysis indicated that diabetic retinopathy was negatively associated with risk averse in pricing of hypothetical lotteries, myopic time preference, willingness to pay for preventive medicine, and levels of satisfaction with life. Diabetic nephropathy was also negatively associated with risk averse in pricing of hypothetical lotteries. Detailed analysis revealed that a lower proportion of patients with type 2 diabetes (22.7%) were categorized as risk averse compared with patients with type 1 diabetes (43.1%, P<0.05) in hypothetical lottery risk estimation. This is the first report that investigated patients with diabetes in a clinical setting using a method based on behavioral economics. The results suggest that the attitude of patients toward risk plays an important role in the progress of the complications of diabetes. Different educational and psychological approaches may be necessary to assess patients with diabetes based on whether they have traits such as risk seeking or risk averse.

The risks and returns of stock investment in a financial market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jiang-Cheng; Mei, Dong-Cheng

2013-03-01

The risks and returns of stock investment are discussed via numerically simulating the mean escape time and the probability density function of stock price returns in the modified Heston model with time delay. Through analyzing the effects of delay time and initial position on the risks and returns of stock investment, the results indicate that: (i) There is an optimal delay time matching minimal risks of stock investment, maximal average stock price returns and strongest stability of stock price returns for strong elasticity of demand of stocks (EDS), but the opposite results for weak EDS; (ii) The increment of initial position recedes the risks of stock investment, strengthens the average stock price returns and enhances stability of stock price returns. Finally, the probability density function of stock price returns and the probability density function of volatility and the correlation function of stock price returns are compared with other literatures. In addition, good agreements are found between them.

[Is the price of cancer drugs related to the cost of develo-pment and production or to the economic value of their clincal efficacy?].

PubMed

Russi, Alberto; Serena, Marta; Palozzo, Angelo C

2016-04-01

In the past years, the expenditure for cancer drugs has quickly increased, especially for biologic agents. Pharmaceutical companies and national health systems have different approaches in handling the issue of drug reimbursement. Companies support a price based on research and development (R&D) expenditures including those for unsuccessful drug projects while national health systems generally argue that pricing should be based on the incremental benefit generated by the agent under examination (value-based pricing - VBP). Nevertheless, current oncologic drugs prices are too high and not really justified by their incremental benefits or innovation, nor can they demonstrate that higher thresholds in QALYs could bring wider societal benefits. In this article we discuss these two points of view in the light of the most recent national and international literature. In Italy, drug reimbursement is currently managed through a mixed approach between the recognition of R&D expenditures and VBP. Reimbursement is also integrated with post-marketing patient-based national registries, particularly in the field of anti-cancer agents, that provide rebates based on financial risk sharing, cost-sharing, payment by results and success fee methods.

The capital-asset-pricing model and arbitrage pricing theory: A unification

PubMed Central

Khan, M. Ali; Sun, Yeneng

1997-01-01

We present a model of a financial market in which naive diversification, based simply on portfolio size and obtained as a consequence of the law of large numbers, is distinguished from efficient diversification, based on mean-variance analysis. This distinction yields a valuation formula involving only the essential risk embodied in an asset’s return, where the overall risk can be decomposed into a systematic and an unsystematic part, as in the arbitrage pricing theory; and the systematic component further decomposed into an essential and an inessential part, as in the capital-asset-pricing model. The two theories are thus unified, and their individual asset-pricing formulas shown to be equivalent to the pervasive economic principle of no arbitrage. The factors in the model are endogenously chosen by a procedure analogous to the Karhunen–Loéve expansion of continuous time stochastic processes; it has an optimality property justifying the use of a relatively small number of them to describe the underlying correlational structures. Our idealized limit model is based on a continuum of assets indexed by a hyperfinite Loeb measure space, and it is asymptotically implementable in a setting with a large but finite number of assets. Because the difficulties in the formulation of the law of large numbers with a standard continuum of random variables are well known, the model uncovers some basic phenomena not amenable to classical methods, and whose approximate counterparts are not already, or even readily, apparent in the asymptotic setting. PMID:11038614

The capital-asset-pricing model and arbitrage pricing theory: a unification.

PubMed

Ali Khan, M; Sun, Y

1997-04-15

We present a model of a financial market in which naive diversification, based simply on portfolio size and obtained as a consequence of the law of large numbers, is distinguished from efficient diversification, based on mean-variance analysis. This distinction yields a valuation formula involving only the essential risk embodied in an asset's return, where the overall risk can be decomposed into a systematic and an unsystematic part, as in the arbitrage pricing theory; and the systematic component further decomposed into an essential and an inessential part, as in the capital-asset-pricing model. The two theories are thus unified, and their individual asset-pricing formulas shown to be equivalent to the pervasive economic principle of no arbitrage. The factors in the model are endogenously chosen by a procedure analogous to the Karhunen-Loéve expansion of continuous time stochastic processes; it has an optimality property justifying the use of a relatively small number of them to describe the underlying correlational structures. Our idealized limit model is based on a continuum of assets indexed by a hyperfinite Loeb measure space, and it is asymptotically implementable in a setting with a large but finite number of assets. Because the difficulties in the formulation of the law of large numbers with a standard continuum of random variables are well known, the model uncovers some basic phenomena not amenable to classical methods, and whose approximate counterparts are not already, or even readily, apparent in the asymptotic setting.

Stock market speculation: Spontaneous symmetry breaking of economic valuation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sornette, Didier

2000-09-01

Firm foundation theory estimates a security's firm fundamental value based on four determinants: expected growth rate, expected dividend payout, the market interest rate and the degree of risk. In contrast, other views of decision-making in the stock market, using alternatives such as human psychology and behavior, bounded rationality, agent-based modeling and evolutionary game theory, expound that speculative and crowd behavior of investors may play a major role in shaping market prices. Here, we propose that the two views refer to two classes of companies connected through a "phase transition". Our theory is based on (1) the identification of the fundamental parity symmetry of prices (p→-p), which results from the relative direction of payment flux compared to commodity flux and (2) the observation that a company's risk-adjusted growth rate discounted by the market interest rate behaves as a control parameter for the observable price. We find a critical value of this control parameter at which a spontaneous symmetry-breaking of prices occurs, leading to a spontaneous valuation in absence of earnings, similarly to the emergence of a spontaneous magnetization in Ising models in absence of a magnetic field. The low growth rate phase is described by the firm foundation theory while the large growth rate phase is the regime of speculation and crowd behavior. In practice, while large "finite-time horizon" effects round off the predicted singularities, our symmetry-breaking speculation theory accounts for the apparent over-pricing and the high volatility of fast growing companies on the stock markets.

An accurate European option pricing model under Fractional Stable Process based on Feynman Path Integral

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Chao; Ma, Qinghua; Yao, Haixiang; Hou, Tiancheng

2018-03-01

In this paper, we propose to use the Fractional Stable Process (FSP) for option pricing. The FSP is one of the few candidates to directly model a number of desired empirical properties of asset price risk neutral dynamics. However, pricing the vanilla European option under FSP is difficult and problematic. In the paper, built upon the developed Feynman Path Integral inspired techniques, we present a novel computational model for option pricing, i.e. the Fractional Stable Process Path Integral (FSPPI) model under a general fractional stable distribution that tackles this problem. Numerical and empirical experiments show that the proposed pricing model provides a correction of the Black-Scholes pricing error - overpricing long term options, underpricing short term options; overpricing out-of-the-money options, underpricing in-the-money options without any additional structures such as stochastic volatility and a jump process.

Price adjustment for traditional Chinese medicine procedures: Based on a standardized value parity model.

PubMed

Wang, Haiyin; Jin, Chunlin; Jiang, Qingwu

2017-11-20

Traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) is an important part of China's medical system. Due to the prolonged low price of TCM procedures and the lack of an effective mechanism for dynamic price adjustment, the development of TCM has markedly lagged behind Western medicine. The World Health Organization (WHO) has emphasized the need to enhance the development of alternative and traditional medicine when creating national health care systems. The establishment of scientific and appropriate mechanisms to adjust the price of medical procedures in TCM is crucial to promoting the development of TCM. This study has examined incorporating value indicators and data on basic manpower expended, time spent, technical difficulty, and the degree of risk in the latest standards for the price of medical procedures in China, and this study also offers a price adjustment model with the relative price ratio as a key index. This study examined 144 TCM procedures and found that prices of TCM procedures were mainly based on the value of medical care provided; on average, medical care provided accounted for 89% of the price. Current price levels were generally low and the current price accounted for 56% of the standardized value of a procedure, on average. Current price levels accounted for a markedly lower standardized value of acupuncture, moxibustion, special treatment with TCM, and comprehensive TCM procedures. This study selected a total of 79 procedures and adjusted them by priority. The relationship between the price of TCM procedures and the suggested price was significantly optimized (p < 0.01). This study suggests that adjustment of the price of medical procedures based on a standardized value parity model is a scientific and suitable method of price adjustment that can serve as a reference for other provinces and municipalities in China and other countries and regions that mainly have fee-for-service (FFS) medical care.

Store Impulse Marketing Strategies and Body Mass Index.

PubMed

Cohen, Deborah A; Collins, Rebecca; Hunter, Gerald; Ghosh-Dastidar, Bonnie; Dubowitz, Tamara

2015-07-01

We quantified the use of placement and price reduction marketing strategies in different food retail outlets to identify associations between these strategies and the risk of overweight and obesity among customers. In 2011 we collected dietary and health information from 1372 residents in "food deserts" in Pittsburgh, PA. We audited neighborhood restaurants and food stores (n = 40) including 16 distant food venues at which residents reported shopping. We assessed end-aisle displays, special floor displays, cash register displays, and price reductions for sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs); foods high in saturated oils, fats, and added sugars; and nutritious foods such as fruits, vegetables, and products with at least 51% whole grains. Supermarkets and superstores had the largest numbers of displays and price reductions for low-nutrient foods. Exposure to displays of SSBs and foods high in saturated oils, fats, and added sugars and price reduction of SSBs was associated with increased body mass index. In-store marketing strategies of low-nutrient foods appear to be risk factors for a higher body mass index among regular shoppers. Future research is needed to confirm the causal role of marketing strategies in obesity.

Moral Hazard: How The National Flood Insurance Program Is Limiting Risk Reduction

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-12-01

Management and Budget, Paperwork Reduction Project (0704-0188) Washington DC 20503. 1. AGENCY USE ONLY (Leave blank) 2. REPORT DATE December...assessment, floodplain management , and flood insurance. A study of the NFIP concludes that aspects of the program limit risk reduction...floodplain management , risk assessment, disaster recovery, flood insurance claim, pre-flood insurance rate map 15. NUMBER OF PAGES 123 16. PRICE CODE

Comparing projected impacts of cigarette floor price and excise tax policies on socioeconomic disparities in smoking

PubMed Central

Golden, Shelley D; Farrelly, Matthew C; Luke, Douglas A; Ribisl, Kurt M

2016-01-01

Background About half of all US states have cigarette minimum price laws (MPLs) that require a per cent mark-up on prices, but research suggests they may not be very effective in raising prices. An alternative type of MPL sets a floor price below which packs cannot be sold, and may be more promising. This new type of MPL policy has only been implemented in 1 city, therefore its benefits relative to excise taxes is difficult to assess. Methods We constructed a set of possible state floor price MPL options, and matched them to possible state excise tax hikes designed to produce similar average price increases. Using self-reported price and cigarette consumption data from 23 521 participants in the 2010–2011 Tobacco Use Supplement of the Current Population Survey, we projected changes in pack prices and cigarette consumption following implementation of each paired MPL and tax option, for lower and higher income groups. Results We project that state MPLs set at the average reported pack price would raise prices by $0.33 and reduce cigarette consumption by about 4%; a tax with a similar average price effect would reduce consumption by 2.3%. MPLs and taxes that raise average prices by more than $2.00 would reduce consumption by 15.9% and 13.5%, respectively. In all models, we project that MPLs will reduce income-based smoking disparities more than their comparable excise taxes. Conclusions Floor price cigarette MPLs set at or above what consumers currently report paying could reduce both tobacco use and socioeconomic disparities in smoking. PMID:27697949

Nonlinear joint dynamics between prices of crude oil and refined products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Tao; Ma, Guofeng; Liu, Guangsheng

2015-02-01

In this paper, we investigate the relationships between crude oil and refined product prices. We find that nonlinear correlations are stronger in the long-term than in the short-term. Crude oil and product prices are cointegrated and financial crisis in 2007-2008 caused a structural break of the cointegrating relationship. Moreover, different from the findings in most studies, we reveal that the relationships are almost symmetric based on a threshold error correction model. The so-called 'asymmetric relationships' are caused by some outliers and financial crisis. Most of the time, crude oil prices play the major role in the adjustment process of the long-term equilibrium. However, refined product prices dominated crude oil prices during the period of financial crisis. Important policy and risk management implications can be learned from the empirical findings.

Oil prices and long-run risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ready, Robert Clayton

I show that relative levels of aggregate consumption and personal oil consumption provide an excellent proxy for oil prices, and that high oil prices predict low future aggregate consumption growth. Motivated by these facts, I add an oil consumption good to the long-run risk model of Bansal and Yaron [2004] to study the asset pricing implications of observed changes in the dynamic interaction of consumption and oil prices. Empirically I observe that, compared to the first half of my 1987--2010 sample, oil consumption growth in the last 10 years is unresponsive to levels of oil prices, creating an decrease in the mean-reversion of oil prices, and an increase in the persistence of oil price shocks. The model implies that the change in the dynamics of oil consumption generates increased systematic risk from oil price shocks due to their increased persistence. However, persistent oil prices also act as a counterweight for shocks to expected consumption growth, with high expected growth creating high expectations of future oil prices which in turn slow down growth. The combined effect is to reduce overall consumption risk and lower the equity premium. The model also predicts that these changes affect the riskiness of of oil futures contracts, and combine to create a hump shaped term structure of oil futures, consistent with recent data.

JPRS Report, Soviet Union Kommunist No 13, September 1987.

DTIC Science & Technology

1987-12-10

fast and decisive forward movement, with the risk of all sorts of disadvantages and defeats" (vol 24, p 138). Under such most difficult circumstances...local. On each individual occasion and at different times they applied to commodities produced by individual sectors: wholesale prices in industry ...of self-support and self-financing. The level of wholesale prices in industry was raised after 1955 by a factor of 2.7 in coal mining, 3.8 in

A School-Level Proxy Measure for Individual-level Poverty Using School-Level Eligibility for Free and Reduced-Price Meals

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Day, Sophia E.; Hinterland, Kinjia; Myers, Christa; Gupta, Leena; Harris, Tiffany G.; Konty, Kevin J.

2016-01-01

Background: Socioeconomic status (SES) impacts health outcomes. The Youth Risk Behavior Survey (YRBS), like many school-based data sources, lacks individual-level poverty information. We propose using school-level percentages of student eligibility for free/reduced-price meals (%FRPM) as a proxy for individual-level poverty. Methods: Using the New…

Drug pricing and reimbursement information management: processes and decision making in the global economy.

PubMed

Tsourougiannis, Dimitrios

2017-01-01

Background : Cost-containment initiatives are re-shaping the pharmaceutical business environment and affecting market access as well as pricing and reimbursement decisions. Effective price management procedures are too complex to accomplish manually. Prior to February 2013, price management within Astellas Pharma Europe Ltd was done manually using an Excel database. The system was labour intensive, slow to update, and prone to error. An innovative web-based pricing information management system was developed to address the shortcomings of the previous system. Development : A secure web-based system for submitting, reviewing and approving pricing requests was designed to: track all pricing applications and approval status; update approved pricing information automatically; provide fixed and customizable reports of pricing information; collect pricing and reimbursement rules from each country; validate pricing and reimbursement rules monthly. Several sequential phases of development emphasized planning, time schedules, target dates, budgets and implementation of the entire system. A test system was used to pilot the electronic (e)-pricing system with three affiliates (four users) in February 2013. Outcomes : The web-based system was introduced in March 2013, currently has about 227 active users globally and comprises more than 1000 presentations of 150 products. The overall benefits of switching from a manual to an e-pricing system were immediate and highly visible in terms of efficiency, transparency, reliability and compliance. Conclusions : The e-pricing system has improved the efficiency, reliability, compliance, transparency and ease of access to multinational drug pricing and approval information.

Drug pricing and reimbursement information management: processes and decision making in the global economy

PubMed Central

Tsourougiannis, Dimitrios

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT Background: Cost-containment initiatives are re-shaping the pharmaceutical business environment and affecting market access as well as pricing and reimbursement decisions. Effective price management procedures are too complex to accomplish manually. Prior to February 2013, price management within Astellas Pharma Europe Ltd was done manually using an Excel database. The system was labour intensive, slow to update, and prone to error. An innovative web-based pricing information management system was developed to address the shortcomings of the previous system. Development: A secure web-based system for submitting, reviewing and approving pricing requests was designed to: track all pricing applications and approval status; update approved pricing information automatically; provide fixed and customizable reports of pricing information; collect pricing and reimbursement rules from each country; validate pricing and reimbursement rules monthly. Several sequential phases of development emphasized planning, time schedules, target dates, budgets and implementation of the entire system. A test system was used to pilot the electronic (e)-pricing system with three affiliates (four users) in February 2013. Outcomes: The web-based system was introduced in March 2013, currently has about 227 active users globally and comprises more than 1000 presentations of 150 products. The overall benefits of switching from a manual to an e-pricing system were immediate and highly visible in terms of efficiency, transparency, reliability and compliance. Conclusions: The e-pricing system has improved the efficiency, reliability, compliance, transparency and ease of access to multinational drug pricing and approval information. PMID:28740622

Dependence and risk assessment for oil prices and exchange rate portfolios: A wavelet based approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aloui, Chaker; Jammazi, Rania

2015-10-01

In this article, we propose a wavelet-based approach to accommodate the stylized facts and complex structure of financial data, caused by frequent and abrupt changes of markets and noises. Specifically, we show how the combination of both continuous and discrete wavelet transforms with traditional financial models helps improve portfolio's market risk assessment. In the empirical stage, three wavelet-based models (wavelet-EGARCH with dynamic conditional correlations, wavelet-copula, and wavelet-extreme value) are considered and applied to crude oil price and US dollar exchange rate data. Our findings show that the wavelet-based approach provides an effective and powerful tool for detecting extreme moments and improving the accuracy of VaR and Expected Shortfall estimates of oil-exchange rate portfolios after noise is removed from the original data.

75 FR 63107 - Alternatives to the Use of External Credit Ratings in the Regulations of the OTS

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-10-14

..., savings associations must consider the interest rate, credit, liquidity, price and other risks presented... subject only to moderate credit risk, and for whom expectations of default risk over the term of the... securities activities based on the levels and types of risks in its portfolio. As with the credit quality...

Wildfire risk and housing prices: a case study from Colorado Springs.

Treesearch

G.H. Donovan; P.A. Champ; D.T. Butry

2007-01-01

Unlike other natural hazards such as floods, hurricanes, and earthquakes, wildfire risk has not previously been examined using a hedonic property value model. In this article, we estimate a hedonic model based on parcel-level wildfire risk ratings from Colorado Springs. We found that providing homeowners with specific information about the wildfire risk rating of their...

Stochastic techno-economic analysis of alcohol-to-jet fuel production.

PubMed

Yao, Guolin; Staples, Mark D; Malina, Robert; Tyner, Wallace E

2017-01-01

Alcohol-to-jet (ATJ) is one of the technical feasible biofuel technologies. It produces jet fuel from sugary, starchy, and lignocellulosic biomass, such as sugarcane, corn grain, and switchgrass, via fermentation of sugars to ethanol or other alcohols. This study assesses the ATJ biofuel production pathway for these three biomass feedstocks, and advances existing techno-economic analyses of biofuels in three ways. First, we incorporate technical uncertainty for all by-products and co-products though statistical linkages between conversion efficiencies and input and output levels. Second, future price uncertainty is based on case-by-case time-series estimation, and a local sensitivity analysis is conducted with respect to each uncertain variable. Third, breakeven price distributions are developed to communicate the inherent uncertainty in breakeven price. This research also considers uncertainties in utility input requirements, fuel and by-product outputs, as well as price uncertainties for all major inputs, products, and co-products. All analyses are done from the perspective of a private firm. The stochastic dominance results of net present values (NPV) and breakeven price distributions show that sugarcane is the lowest cost feedstock over the entire range of uncertainty with the least risks, followed by corn grain and switchgrass, with the mean breakeven jet fuel prices being $0.96/L ($3.65/gal), $1.01/L ($3.84/gal), and $1.38/L ($5.21/gal), respectively. The variation of revenues from by-products in corn grain pathway can significantly impact its profitability. Sensitivity analyses show that technical uncertainty significantly impacts breakeven price and NPV distributions. Technical uncertainty is critical in determining the economic performance of the ATJ fuel pathway. Technical uncertainty needs to be considered in future economic analyses. The variation of revenues from by-products plays a significant role in profitability. With the distribution of breakeven prices, potential investors can apply whatever risk preferences they like to determine an appropriate bid or breakeven price that matches their risk profile.

Essays on the behavior of the oil market and OPEC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Algudhea, Salim

This dissertation consists of three essays. The first essay is mainly concerned with investigating the risk-responsive behavior of OPEC members. Economic theory suggests that producers respond to the risk of volatile price by lowering production level. In the case of OPEC, the risk of the volatility in the price of crude oil does not seem to be a key determinant in the production decision-making process. Engineering constraints, data frequency, and political consideration may be the main causes of such a result. In the second essay, we tested the presence of the asymmetric adjustment in the cheating behavior as a result of crude oil price shocks. We utilize a set of cointegration and error correction methods that do not assume a linear adjustment to test whether cheaters within OPEC respond more to positive or negative crude oil price shocks. We conclude that cheaters respond more to negative shocks than positive shocks in oil price. The inelastic nature of demand for oil seems to play a crucial role in such asymmetric behavior. When there is a negative price shock, OPEC producers compensate for the loss in revenue by overproducing (i.e. cheat). Yet, if there is a positive shock in the price of crude oil, OPEC producers have less incentive to overproduce because of the inelastic demand for oil. The third essay is concerned with testing for the asymmetric adjustment in gasoline prices in the U.S. We consider a Momentum Threshold Autoregressive (MTAR) process to test for the asymmetric adjustment in all of the possible stages that a gallon of gasoline goes through in order to find the source of asymmetry. Then, we examine the dynamics of gasoline prices using asymmetric error correction models based on the MTAR specifications. We find the asymmetric adjustment present in all stages. The asymmetry in the retail stage seems to be the result of insufficient demand faced by retailers.

Pricing the property claim service (PCS) catastrophe insurance options using gamma distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noviyanti, Lienda; Soleh, Achmad Zanbar; Setyanto, Gatot R.

2017-03-01

The catastrophic events like earthquakes, hurricanes or flooding are characteristics for some areas, a properly calculated annual premium would be closely as high as the loss insured. From an actuarial perspective, such events constitute the risk that are not insurable. On the other hand people living in such areas need protection. In order to securitize the catastrophe risk, futures or options based on a loss index could be considered. Chicago Board of Trade launched a new class of catastrophe insurance options based on new indices provided by Property Claim Services (PCS). The PCS-option is based on the Property Claim Service Index (PCS-Index). The index are used to determine and payout in writing index-based insurance derivatives. The objective of this paper is to price PCS Catastrophe Insurance Option based on PCS Catastrophe index. Gamma Distribution is used to estimate PCS Catastrophe index distribution.

Sum Insured Determination for Cereal, Citrus and Vineyards in the Spanish Agricultural Insurance System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lozano, C.; Tarquis, A. M.; Gómez-Barona, J. A.

2012-04-01

In general, insurance is a form of risk management used to hedge against a contingent loss. The conventional definition is the equitable transfer of a risk of loss from one entity to another in exchange for a premium or a guaranteed and quantifiable small loss to prevent a large and possibly devastating loss being agricultural insurance a special line of property insurance. Agriculture insurance, as actually are designed in the Spanish scenario, were established in 1978. At the macroeconomic insurance studies scale, it is necessary to know a basic element for the insurance actuarial components: sum insured. When a new risk assessment has to be evaluated in the insurance framework, it is essential to determinate venture capital in the total Spanish agriculture. In this study, three different crops (cereal, citrus and vineyards) cases are showed to determinate sum insured as they are representative of the cases found in the Spanish agriculture. Crop sum insured is calculated by the product of crop surface, unit surface production and crop price insured. In the cereal case, winter as spring cereal sowing, represents the highest Spanish crop surface, above to 6 millions of hectares (ha). Meanwhile, the four citrus species (oranges, mandarins, lemons and grapefruits) occupied an extension just over 275.000 ha. On the other hand, vineyard target to wine process shows almost one million of ha in Spain. A new method has been applied to estimate crop sum insured in these three cases. Under the maximum economic impact assumption, the maximum market price has been used to insurance each species. Depending on crop and reliability of the data base available, the insured area or insured production has been used in this estimation. When for a certain crop varieties or type of varieties show different insurance prices a geometric average was used as average insurance price for that particular crop. One extreme difficult case was vineyards, where differentiate prices based on Denomination of Origin (DO), varieties and autonomous communities made this estimation more complex. The macroeconomic results obtained based on MARM (Ministerio de Agricultura, Alimentación y Medio Ambiente) prices and crop data in 2009 are showed and discussed. Acknowledgements Funding provided by CEIGRAM (Research Centre for the Management of Agricultural and Environmental Risks) is greatly appreciated.

The estimation of time-varying risks in asset pricing modelling using B-Spline method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nurjannah; Solimun; Rinaldo, Adji

2017-12-01

Asset pricing modelling has been extensively studied in the past few decades to explore the risk-return relationship. The asset pricing literature typically assumed a static risk-return relationship. However, several studies found few anomalies in the asset pricing modelling which captured the presence of the risk instability. The dynamic model is proposed to offer a better model. The main problem highlighted in the dynamic model literature is that the set of conditioning information is unobservable and therefore some assumptions have to be made. Hence, the estimation requires additional assumptions about the dynamics of risk. To overcome this problem, the nonparametric estimators can also be used as an alternative for estimating risk. The flexibility of the nonparametric setting avoids the problem of misspecification derived from selecting a functional form. This paper investigates the estimation of time-varying asset pricing model using B-Spline, as one of nonparametric approach. The advantages of spline method is its computational speed and simplicity, as well as the clarity of controlling curvature directly. The three popular asset pricing models will be investigated namely CAPM (Capital Asset Pricing Model), Fama-French 3-factors model and Carhart 4-factors model. The results suggest that the estimated risks are time-varying and not stable overtime which confirms the risk instability anomaly. The results is more pronounced in Carhart’s 4-factors model.

Trends in College Pricing, 2011. Trends in Higher Education Series

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Baum, Sandy; Ma, Jennifer

2011-01-01

The published prices on which the analysis in "Trends in College Pricing" is based come from data reported by institutions on the College Board's Annual Survey of Colleges. This survey, which is distributed to nearly 4,000 postsecondary institutions across the country, collects a wealth of data on enrollment, admission, degrees and majors,…

Online vs. On-Campus: An Analysis of Course Prices of U.S. Educational Institutions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wang, Shouhong

2015-01-01

Pricing online courses is an important issue for managing online education. This research note reports a statistical analysis of price differences between online courses and on-campus courses at 103 US educational institutions based on the data available on the Internet. The finding indicates that educational institutions set significantly lower…

Strategic wholesale pricing for an incumbent supplier facing with a competitive counterpart.

PubMed

Sun, Jianwu

2014-01-01

We introduce a wholesale pricing strategy for an incumbent supplier facing with a competitive counterpart. We propose a profit function which considers both the present loss and future loss from a wholesale price and then study the optimal wholesale prices for different objectives about this profit function for the incumbent supplier. First, we achieve an optimal wholesale price for the incumbent supplier to maximize his expected profit. Then, to reduce the risk originating from the fluctuation in the competitive supplier's wholesale price, we integrate the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) measure in financial risk management into this study and derive an optimal wholesale price to maximize CVaR about profit for the incumbent supplier. Besides, the properties of the two optimal wholesale prices are discussed. Finally, some management insights are suggested for the incumbent supplier in a competitive setting.

Strategic Wholesale Pricing for an Incumbent Supplier Facing with a Competitive Counterpart

PubMed Central

Sun, Jianwu

2014-01-01

We introduce a wholesale pricing strategy for an incumbent supplier facing with a competitive counterpart. We propose a profit function which considers both the present loss and future loss from a wholesale price and then study the optimal wholesale prices for different objectives about this profit function for the incumbent supplier. First, we achieve an optimal wholesale price for the incumbent supplier to maximize his expected profit. Then, to reduce the risk originating from the fluctuation in the competitive supplier's wholesale price, we integrate the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) measure in financial risk management into this study and derive an optimal wholesale price to maximize CVaR about profit for the incumbent supplier. Besides, the properties of the two optimal wholesale prices are discussed. Finally, some management insights are suggested for the incumbent supplier in a competitive setting. PMID:25614891

75 FR 49423 - Alternatives to the Use of External Credit Ratings in the Regulations of the OCC

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-08-13

..., Credit and Market Risk Division, (202) 874-5670; or Carl Kaminski, Senior Attorney, Legislative and... agencies' risk-based capital frameworks. II. OCC Regulations Referencing Credit Ratings The non-capital... interest rate, credit, liquidity, price and other risks presented by investments, and the investments must...

Tracking the Sun 10: The Installed Price of Residential and Non-Residential Photovoltaic Systems in the United States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Barbose, Galen; Darghouth, Naim R.; Millstein, Dev

Berkeley Lab’s Tracking the Sun report series is dedicated to summarizing trends in the installed price of grid-connected, residential and non-residential systems solar photovoltaic (PV) systems in the United States. The present report, the tenth edition in the series, focuses on systems installed through year-end 2016, with preliminary data for the first half of 2017. The report provides an overview of both long-term and more-recent trends, highlighting key drivers for installed price declines over different time horizons. The report also extensively characterizes the widespread variability in system pricing, comparing installed prices across states, market segments, installers, and various system andmore » technology characteristics. The trends described in this report derive from project-level data collected by state agencies and utilities that administer PV incentive programs, solar renewable energy credit (SREC) registration systems, or interconnection processes. In total, data for this report were compiled and cleaned for more than 1.1 million individual PV systems, though the analysis in the report is based on a subset of that sample, consisting of roughly 630,000 systems with available installed price data. The full underlying dataset of project-level data (excluding any confidential information) is available in a public data file, for use by other researchers and analysts.« less

Analytical pricing of geometric Asian power options on an underlying driven by a mixed fractional Brownian motion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Wei-Guo; Li, Zhe; Liu, Yong-Jun

2018-01-01

In this paper, we study the pricing problem of the continuously monitored fixed and floating strike geometric Asian power options in a mixed fractional Brownian motion environment. First, we derive both closed-form solutions and mixed fractional partial differential equations for fixed and floating strike geometric Asian power options based on delta-hedging strategy and partial differential equation method. Second, we present the lower and upper bounds of the prices of fixed and floating strike geometric Asian power options under the assumption that both risk-free interest rate and volatility are interval numbers. Finally, numerical studies are performed to illustrate the performance of our proposed pricing model.

Food Prices and Obesity: Evidence and Policy Implications for Taxes and Subsidies

PubMed Central

Powell, Lisa M; Chaloupka, Frank J

2009-01-01

Context: Pricing policies have been posited as potential policy instruments to address the increasing prevalence of obesity. This article examines whether altering the cost of unhealthy, energy-dense foods, compared with healthy, less-dense foods through the use of fiscal pricing (tax or subsidy) policy instruments would, in fact, change food consumption patterns and overall diet enough to significantly reduce individuals' weight outcomes. Methods: This article examined empirical evidence regarding the food and restaurant price sensitivity of weight outcomes based on a literature search to identify peer-reviewed English-language articles published between 1990 and 2008. Studies were identified from the Medline, PubMed, Econlit, and PAIS databases. The fifteen search combinations used the terms obesity, body mass index, and BMI each in combination with the terms price, prices, tax, taxation, and subsidy. Findings: The studies reviewed showed that when statistically significant associations were found between food and restaurant prices (taxes) and weight outcomes, the effects were generally small in magnitude, although in some cases they were larger for low–socioeconomic status (SES) populations and for those at risk for overweight or obesity. Conclusions: The limited existing evidence suggests that small taxes or subsidies are not likely to produce significant changes in BMI or obesity prevalence but that nontrivial pricing interventions may have some measurable effects on Americans' weight outcomes, particularly for children and adolescents, low-SES populations, and those most at risk for overweight. Additional research is needed to be able to draw strong policy conclusions regarding the effectiveness of fiscal-pricing interventions aimed at reducing obesity. PMID:19298422

Food prices and obesity: evidence and policy implications for taxes and subsidies.

PubMed

Powell, Lisa M; Chaloupka, Frank J

2009-03-01

Pricing policies have been posited as potential policy instruments to address the increasing prevalence of obesity. This article examines whether altering the cost of unhealthy, energy-dense foods, compared with healthy, less-dense foods through the use of fiscal pricing (tax or subsidy) policy instruments would, in fact, change food consumption patterns and overall diet enough to significantly reduce individuals' weight outcomes. This article examined empirical evidence regarding the food and restaurant price sensitivity of weight outcomes based on a literature search to identify peer-reviewed English-language articles published between 1990 and 2008. Studies were identified from the Medline, PubMed, Econlit, and PAIS databases. The fifteen search combinations used the terms obesity, body mass index, and BMI each in combination with the terms price, prices, tax, taxation, and subsidy. The studies reviewed showed that when statistically significant associations were found between food and restaurant prices (taxes) and weight outcomes, the effects were generally small in magnitude, although in some cases they were larger for low-socioeconomic status (SES) populations and for those at risk for overweight or obesity. The limited existing evidence suggests that small taxes or subsidies are not likely to produce significant changes in BMI or obesity prevalence but that nontrivial pricing interventions may have some measurable effects on Americans' weight outcomes, particularly for children and adolescents, low-SES populations, and those most at risk for overweight. Additional research is needed to be able to draw strong policy conclusions regarding the effectiveness of fiscal-pricing interventions aimed at reducing obesity.

Comparing projected impacts of cigarette floor price and excise tax policies on socioeconomic disparities in smoking.

PubMed

Golden, Shelley D; Farrelly, Matthew C; Luke, Douglas A; Ribisl, Kurt M

2016-10-01

About half of all US states have cigarette minimum price laws (MPLs) that require a per cent mark-up on prices, but research suggests they may not be very effective in raising prices. An alternative type of MPL sets a floor price below which packs cannot be sold, and may be more promising. This new type of MPL policy has only been implemented in 1 city, therefore its benefits relative to excise taxes is difficult to assess. We constructed a set of possible state floor price MPL options, and matched them to possible state excise tax hikes designed to produce similar average price increases. Using self-reported price and cigarette consumption data from 23 521 participants in the 2010-2011 Tobacco Use Supplement of the Current Population Survey, we projected changes in pack prices and cigarette consumption following implementation of each paired MPL and tax option, for lower and higher income groups. We project that state MPLs set at the average reported pack price would raise prices by $0.33 and reduce cigarette consumption by about 4%; a tax with a similar average price effect would reduce consumption by 2.3%. MPLs and taxes that raise average prices by more than $2.00 would reduce consumption by 15.9% and 13.5%, respectively. In all models, we project that MPLs will reduce income-based smoking disparities more than their comparable excise taxes. Floor price cigarette MPLs set at or above what consumers currently report paying could reduce both tobacco use and socioeconomic disparities in smoking. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Illiquidity premium and expected stock returns in the UK: A new approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Jiaqi; Sherif, Mohamed

2016-09-01

This study examines the relative importance of liquidity risk for the time-series and cross-section of stock returns in the UK. We propose a simple way to capture the multidimensionality of illiquidity. Our analysis indicates that existing illiquidity measures have considerable asset specific components, which justifies our new approach. Further, we use an alternative test of the Amihud (2002) measure and parametric and non-parametric methods to investigate whether liquidity risk is priced in the UK. We find that the inclusion of the illiquidity factor in the capital asset pricing model plays a significant role in explaining the cross-sectional variation in stock returns, in particular with the Fama-French three-factor model. Further, using Hansen-Jagannathan non-parametric bounds, we find that the illiquidity-augmented capital asset pricing models yield a small distance error, other non-liquidity based models fail to yield economically plausible distance values. Our findings have important implications for managing the liquidity risk of equity portfolios.

Drug pricing reform in China: analysis of piloted approaches and potential impact of the reform

PubMed Central

Chen, Yixi; Hu, Shanlian; Dong, Peng; Kornfeld, Åsa; Jaros, Patrycja; Yan, Jing; Ma, Fangfang; Toumi, Mondher

2016-01-01

Objectives In 2009, the Chinese government launched a national healthcare reform programme aiming to control healthcare expenditure and increase the quality of care. As part of this programme, a new drug pricing reform was initiated on 1 June 2015. The objective of this study was to describe the changing landscape of drug pricing policy in China and analyse the potential impact of the reform. Methods The authors conducted thorough research on the drug pricing reform using three Chinese databases (CNKI, Wanfang, and Weipu), Chinese health authority websites, relevant press releases, and pharmaceutical blogs and discussion forums. This research was complemented with qualitative research based on targeted interviews with key Chinese opinion leaders representing the authorities’ and prescribers’ perspectives. Results With the current reform, the government has attempted to replace its direct control over the prices of reimbursable drugs with indirect, incentive-driven influence. Although the exact implementation of the reform remains unclear at the moment, the changes introduced so far and the pilot project designs indicate that China is considering adaptation of some form of internal and external reference pricing policies, commonly used in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries. Several challenges related to the potential new mechanism were identified: 1) the risk of hospital underfunding, if hospital funding reform is not prioritised; 2) the risk of promoting the use of cheap, low-quality drugs, if a reliable quality control system is not in place and discrepancy between the available drugs is present; 3) the risk of increasing disparity in access to care between poor and rich regions, in case of country-wide price convergence; and 4) the risk of industry underinvestment, resulting in reduced competition, issues with quality and sustainability of supply, and potentially negative social impact. Conclusions Foreign pricing policies cannot be transferred to China without prioritising historical, cultural, and economic contextualisation. Otherwise, the new policy may be counterproductive and affect the whole healthcare chain, as well as the health outcomes of Chinese patients. PMID:27123191

Measuring daily Value-at-Risk of SSEC index: A new approach based on multifractal analysis and extreme value theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Yu; Chen, Wang; Lin, Yu

2013-05-01

Recent studies in the econophysics literature reveal that price variability has fractal and multifractal characteristics not only in developed financial markets, but also in emerging markets. Taking high-frequency intraday quotes of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Component (SSEC) Index as example, this paper proposes a new method to measure daily Value-at-Risk (VaR) by combining the newly introduced multifractal volatility (MFV) model and the extreme value theory (EVT) method. Two VaR backtesting techniques are then employed to compare the performance of the model with that of a group of linear and nonlinear generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models. The empirical results show the multifractal nature of price volatility in Chinese stock market. VaR measures based on the multifractal volatility model and EVT method outperform many GARCH-type models at high-risk levels.

Network formation in a multi-asset artificial stock market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Songtao; He, Jianmin; Li, Shouwei; Wang, Chao

2018-04-01

A multi-asset artificial stock market is developed. In the market, stocks are assigned to a number of sectors and traded by heterogeneous investors. The mechanism of continuous double auction is employed to clear order book and form daily closed prices. Simulation results of prices at the sector level show an intra-sector similarity and inter-sector distinctiveness, and returns of individual stocks have stylized facts that are ubiquitous in the real-world stock market. We find that the market risk factor has critical impact on both network topology transition and connection formation, and that sector risk factors account for the formation of intra-sector links and sector-based local interaction. In addition, the number of community in threshold-based networks is correlated negatively and positively with the value of correlation coefficients and the ratio of intra-sector links, which are respectively determined by intensity of sector risk factors and the number of sectors.

Evidence for the effectiveness of minimum pricing of alcohol: a systematic review and assessment using the Bradford Hill criteria for causality

PubMed Central

Scannell, Jack W; Marlow, Sally

2017-01-01

Objectives To assess the evidence for price-based alcohol policy interventions to determine whether minimum unit pricing (MUP) is likely to be effective. Design Systematic review and assessment of studies according to Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines, against the Bradford Hill criteria for causality. Three electronic databases were searched from inception to February 2017. Additional articles were found through hand searching and grey literature searches. Criteria for selecting studies We included any study design that reported on the effect of price-based interventions on alcohol consumption or alcohol-related morbidity, mortality and wider harms. Studies reporting on the effects of taxation or affordability and studies that only investigated price elasticity of demand were beyond the scope of this review. Studies with any conflict of interest were excluded. All studies were appraised for methodological quality. Results Of 517 studies assessed, 33 studies were included: 26 peer-reviewed research studies and seven from the grey literature. All nine of the Bradford Hill criteria were met, although different types of study satisfied different criteria. For example, modelling studies complied with the consistency and specificity criteria, time series analyses demonstrated the temporality and experiment criteria, and the analogy criterion was fulfilled by comparing the findings with the wider literature on taxation and affordability. Conclusions Overall, the Bradford Hill criteria for causality were satisfied. There was very little evidence that minimum alcohol prices are not associated with consumption or subsequent harms. However the overall quality of the evidence was variable, a large proportion of the evidence base has been produced by a small number of research teams, and the quantitative uncertainty in many estimates or forecasts is often poorly communicated outside the academic literature. Nonetheless, price-based alcohol policy interventions such as MUP are likely to reduce alcohol consumption, alcohol-related morbidity and mortality. PMID:28588106

12 CFR 652.5 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... States Government, including but not limited to any Government-sponsored enterprise. Liquid investments... installments based on the outstanding balance of those loans. Market risk means the risk to your financial condition because the value of your holdings may decline if interest rates or market prices change. Exposure...

Minimum financial outlays for purchasing alcohol brands in the U.S.

PubMed

Albers, Alison Burke; DeJong, William; Naimi, Timothy S; Siegel, Michael; Shoaff, Jessica Ruhlman; Jernigan, David H

2013-01-01

Low alcohol prices are a potent risk factor for excessive drinking, underage drinking, and adverse alcohol-attributable outcomes. Presently, there is little reported information on alcohol prices in the U.S., in particular as it relates to the costs of potentially beneficial amounts of alcohol. To determine the minimum financial outlay necessary to purchase individual brands of alcohol using online alcohol price data from January through March 2012. The smallest container size and the minimum price at which that size beverage could be purchased in the U.S. in 2012 were determined for 898 brands of alcohol, across 17 different alcoholic beverage types. The analyses were conducted in March 2012. The majority of alcoholic beverage categories contain brands that can be purchased in the U.S. for very low minimum financial outlays. In the U.S., a wide variety of alcohol brands, across many types of alcohol, are available at very low prices. Given that both alcohol use and abuse are responsive to price, particularly among adolescents, the prevalence of low alcohol prices is concerning. Surveillance of alcohol prices and minimum pricing policies should be considered in the U.S. as part of a public health strategy to reduce excessive alcohol consumption and related harms. Copyright © 2013 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Minimum Financial Outlays for Purchasing Alcohol Brands in the U.S

PubMed Central

Albers, Alison Burke; DeJong, William; Naimi, Timothy S.; Siegel, Michael; Shoaff, Jessica Ruhlman; Jernigan, David H.

2012-01-01

Background Low alcohol prices are a potent risk factor for excessive drinking, underage drinking, and adverse alcohol-attributable outcomes. Presently, there is little reported information on alcohol prices in the U.S., in particular as it relates to the costs of potentially beneficial amounts of alcohol. Purpose To determine the minimum financial outlay necessary to purchase individual brands of alcohol using online alcohol price data from January through March 2012. Methods The smallest container size and the minimum price at which that size beverage could be purchased in the U.S. in 2012 were determined for 898 brands of alcohol, across 17 different alcoholic beverage types. The analyses were conducted in March 2012. Results The majority of alcoholic beverage categories contain brands that can be purchased in the U.S. for very low minimum financial outlays. Conclusions In the U.S., a wide variety of alcohol brands, across many types of alcohol, are available at very low prices. Given that both alcohol use and abuse are responsive to price, particularly among adolescents, the prevalence of low alcohol prices is concerning. Surveillance of alcohol prices and minimum pricing policies should be considered in the U.S. as part of a public health strategy to reduce excessive alcohol consumption and related harms. PMID:23253652

Introducing risk adjustment and free health plan choice in employer-based health insurance: Evidence from Germany.

PubMed

Pilny, Adam; Wübker, Ansgar; Ziebarth, Nicolas R

2017-12-01

To equalize differences in health plan premiums due to differences in risk pools, the German legislature introduced a simple Risk Adjustment Scheme (RAS) based on age, gender and disability status in 1994. In addition, effective 1996, consumers gained the freedom to choose among hundreds of existing health plans, across employers and state-borders. This paper (a) estimates RAS pass-through rates on premiums, financial reserves, and expenditures and assesses the overall RAS impact on market price dispersion. Moreover, it (b) characterizes health plan switchers and investigates their annual and cumulative switching rates over time. Our main findings are based on representative enrollee panel data linked to administrative RAS and health plan data. We show that sickness funds with bad risk pools and high pre-RAS premiums lowered their total premiums by 42 cents per additional euro allocated by the RAS. Consequently, post-RAS, health plan prices converged but not fully. Because switchers are more likely to be white collar, young and healthy, the new consumer choice resulted in more risk segregation and the amount of money redistributed by the RAS increased over time. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Applications of δ-function perturbation to the pricing of derivative securities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Decamps, Marc; De Schepper, Ann; Goovaerts, Marc

2004-11-01

In the recent econophysics literature, the use of functional integrals is widespread for the calculation of option prices. In this paper, we extend this approach in several directions by means of δ-function perturbations. First, we show that results about infinitely repulsive δ-function are applicable to the pricing of barrier options. We also introduce functional integrals over skew paths that give rise to a new European option formula when combined with δ-function potential. We propose accurate closed-form approximations based on the theory of comonotonic risks in case the functional integrals are not analytically computable.

Store Impulse Marketing Strategies and Body Mass Index

PubMed Central

Collins, Rebecca; Hunter, Gerald; Ghosh-Dastidar, Bonnie; Dubowitz, Tamara

2015-01-01

Objectives. We quantified the use of placement and price reduction marketing strategies in different food retail outlets to identify associations between these strategies and the risk of overweight and obesity among customers. Methods. In 2011 we collected dietary and health information from 1372 residents in “food deserts” in Pittsburgh, PA. We audited neighborhood restaurants and food stores (n = 40) including 16 distant food venues at which residents reported shopping. We assessed end-aisle displays, special floor displays, cash register displays, and price reductions for sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs); foods high in saturated oils, fats, and added sugars; and nutritious foods such as fruits, vegetables, and products with at least 51% whole grains. Results. Supermarkets and superstores had the largest numbers of displays and price reductions for low-nutrient foods. Exposure to displays of SSBs and foods high in saturated oils, fats, and added sugars and price reduction of SSBs was associated with increased body mass index. Conclusions. In-store marketing strategies of low-nutrient foods appear to be risk factors for a higher body mass index among regular shoppers. Future research is needed to confirm the causal role of marketing strategies in obesity. PMID:25521881

Buyer and seller data from pay what you want and name your own price laboratory markets.

PubMed

Krämer, Florentin; Schmidt, Klaus M; Spann, Martin; Stich, Lucas

2017-06-01

Pay What You Want (PWYW) and Name Your Own Price (NYOP) are customer-driven pricing mechanisms that give customers (some) pricing power and that have been used in service industries with high fixed costs to price discriminate without setting a reference price. This paper describes buyer and seller data in a series of induced-value laboratory experiments that compare PWYW and NYOP in monopoly and competitive situations. Sellers are in a one-shot interaction with buyers. Sellers using customer-driven pricing mechanisms may exogenously or endogenously receive additional promotional benefits, for instance through word-of-mouth effects. The major findings based on the data presented here are reported in the paper "Delegating Pricing Power to Customers: Pay What You Want or Name Your Own Price?" (Krämer et al., 2017) [3].

Cost effectiveness of drug eluting coronary artery stenting in a UK setting: cost-utility study.

PubMed

Bagust, A; Grayson, A D; Palmer, N D; Perry, R A; Walley, T

2006-01-01

To assess the cost effectiveness of drug eluting stents (DES) compared with conventional stents for treatment of symptomatic coronary artery disease in the UK. Cost-utility analysis of audit based patient subgroups by means of a simple economic model. Tertiary care. 12 month audit data for 2884 patients receiving percutaneous coronary intervention with stenting at the Cardiothoracic Centre Liverpool between January 2000 and December 2002. Risk of repeat revascularisation within 12 months of index procedure and reduction in risk from use of DES. Economic modelling was used to estimate the cost-utility ratio and threshold price premium. Four factors were identified for patients undergoing elective surgery (n = 1951) and two for non-elective surgery (n = 933) to predict risk of repeat revascularisation within 12 months. Most patients fell within the subgroup with lowest risk (57% of the elective surgery group with 5.6% risk and 91% of the non-elective surgery group with 9.9% risk). Modelled cost-utility ratios were acceptable for only one group of high risk patients undergoing non-elective surgery (only one patient in audit data). Restricting the number of DES for each patient improved results marginally: 4% of stents could then be drug eluting on economic grounds. The threshold price premium justifying 90% substitution of conventional stents was estimated to be 112 pound sterling (212 USD, 162 pound sterling) (sirolimus stents) or 89 pound sterling (167 USD, 130 pound sterling) (paclitaxel stents). At current UK prices, DES are not cost effective compared with conventional stents except for a small minority of patients. Although the technology is clearly effective, general substitution is not justified unless the price premium falls substantially.

Centrales au gaz et Energies renouvelables: comparer des pommes avec des pommes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan; Golove, William

2003-10-20

The fundamental conclusion that we draw from this analysis is that one should not to base itself blindly on forecasts prices of natural gas when one compare contracts at price fixes with producers of renewable energy with contracts at variable prices with promoters power stations with gas. Indeed, forecasts of the prices of gas do not succeed not to enter the associated costs with the covering of the risk, that they are connected to the negative pressure against the cover, with the CAPM, with costs of transaction or with unspecified combination of three. Thus, insofar as price stability to lengthmore » term is developed, better way of comparing the two choices would be to have recourse to the data on the prices in the long term natural gas, and not with forecasts of the prices. During three last years at least, the use of these prices in the long term would have besides license to correct a methodological error who, obviously, seem to have supported unduly, and of relatively important way, power stations with natural gas compared to their competitors of renewable energies.« less

Pricing strategies for capitated delivery systems

PubMed Central

Gruenberg, Leonard; Wallack, Stanley S.; Tompkins, Christopher P.

1986-01-01

This article discusses alternative methods for establishing a fairer pricing mechanism for Medicare recipients who enroll in health maintenance organizations and other competitive medical plans. The current method, based upon the adjusted average per capita cost, is inadequate because it fails to adjust premium levels for differences in health status; it establishes undesirable incentives that may lead to underservice, and it is tied to costs in the fee-for-service system. Alternative methods would incorporate health status, have Medicare share the risk with HMO's, and base payment on HMO experience. PMID:10311925

Risks and interrelationships of subdistrict house prices: the case of Amsterdam.

PubMed

Teye, Alfred Larm; de Haan, Jan; Elsinga, Marja G

2018-01-01

This paper uses individual house transaction data from 1995 to 2014 in Amsterdam to explore the risks and interrelationships of the subdistrict house prices. Simple indicators suggest that house prices grow faster and are more risky in the central business district and its immediate surrounding areas than in the peripherals. Furthermore, we observe an over time decreasing intervariations between the subdistrict house price growth rates, whereas we find a lead-lag and house price causal flow from the more central to the peripheral subdistricts.

Assessing the Potential Effectiveness of Food and Beverage Taxes and Subsidies for Improving Public Health: A Systematic Review of Prices, Demand and Body Weight Outcomes

PubMed Central

Powell, Lisa M.; Chriqui, Jamie F.; Khan, Tamkeen; Wada, Roy; Chaloupka, Frank J.

2012-01-01

Taxes and subsidies are increasingly being considered as potential policy instruments to incentivize consumers to improve their food and beverage consumption patterns and related health outcomes. This study provided a systematic review of recent U.S. studies on the price elasticity of demand for sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs), fast food and fruits and vegetables as well as the direct associations of prices/taxes with body weight outcomes. Based on the recent literature, the price elasticity of demand for SSBs, fast food, fruits and vegetables was estimated to be −1.21, −0.52, −0.49 and −0.48, respectively. The studies that linked soda taxes to weight outcomes showed minimal impacts on weight; however, they were based on existing state-level sales taxes that were relatively low. Higher fast-food prices were associated with lower weight outcomes particularly among adolescents suggesting that raising prices would potentially impact weight outcomes. Lower fruit and vegetable prices were generally found to be associated with lower body weight outcomes among both low-income children and adults suggesting that subsidies that would reduce the cost of fruits and vegetables for lower-socioeconomic populations may be effective in reducing obesity. Pricing instruments should continue to be considered and evaluated as potential policy instruments to address public health risks. PMID:23174017

Can't get no satisfaction? Will pay for performance help?: toward an economic framework for understanding performance-based risk-sharing agreements for innovative medical products.

PubMed

Towse, Adrian; Garrison, Louis P

2010-01-01

This article examines performance-based risk-sharing agreements for pharmaceuticals from a theoretical economic perspective. We position these agreements as a form of coverage with evidence development. New performance-based risk sharing could produce a more efficient market equilibrium, achieved by adjustment of the price post-launch to reflect outcomes combined with a new approach to the post-launch costs of evidence collection. For this to happen, the party best able to manage or to bear specific risks must do so. Willingness to bear risk will depend not only on ability to manage it, but on the degree of risk aversion. We identify three related frameworks that provide relevant insights: value of information, real option theory and money-back guarantees. We identify four categories of risk sharing: budget impact, price discounting, outcomes uncertainty and subgroup uncertainty. We conclude that a value of information/real option framework is likely to be the most helpful approach for understanding the costs and benefits of risk sharing. There are a number of factors that are likely to be crucial in determining if performance-based or risk-sharing agreements are efficient and likely to become more important in the future: (i) the cost and practicality of post-launch evidence collection relative to pre-launch; (ii) the feasibility of coverage with evidence development without a pre-agreed contract as to how the evidence will be used to adjust price, revenues or use, in which uncertainty around the pay-off to additional research will reduce the incentive for the manufacturer to collect the information; (iii) the difficulty of writing and policing risk-sharing agreements; (iv) the degree of risk aversion (and therefore opportunity to trade) on the part of payers and manufacturers; and (v) the extent of transferability of data from one country setting to another to support coverage with evidence development in a risk-sharing framework. There is no doubt that--in principle--risk sharing can provide manufacturers and payers additional real options that increase overall efficiency. Given the lack of empirical evidence on the success of schemes already agreed and on the issues we set out above, it is too early to tell if the recent surge of interest in these arrangements is likely to be a trend or only a fad.

Policy options for pharmaceutical pricing and purchasing: issues for low- and middle-income countries.

PubMed

Nguyen, Tuan Anh; Knight, Rosemary; Roughead, Elizabeth Ellen; Brooks, Geoffrey; Mant, Andrea

2015-03-01

Pharmaceutical expenditure is rising globally. Most high-income countries have exercised pricing or purchasing strategies to address this pressure. Low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), however, usually have less regulated pharmaceutical markets and often lack feasible pricing or purchasing strategies, notwithstanding their wish to effectively manage medicine budgets. In high-income countries, most medicines payments are made by the state or health insurance institutions. In LMICs, most pharmaceutical expenditure is out-of-pocket which creates a different dynamic for policy enforcement. The paucity of rigorous studies on the effectiveness of pharmaceutical pricing and purchasing strategies makes it especially difficult for policy makers in LMICs to decide on a course of action. This article reviews published articles on pharmaceutical pricing and purchasing policies. Many policy options for medicine pricing and purchasing have been found to work but they also have attendant risks. No one option is decisively preferred; rather a mix of options may be required based on country-specific context. Empirical studies in LMICs are lacking. However, risks from any one policy option can reasonably be argued to be greater in LMICs which often lack strong legal systems, purchasing and state institutions to underpin the healthcare system. Key factors are identified to assist LMICs improve their medicine pricing and purchasing systems. Published by Oxford University Press in association with The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine © The Author 2014; all rights reserved.

Investment risk in bioenergy crops

DOE PAGES

Skevas, Theodoros; Swinton, Scott M.; Tanner, Sophia; ...

2015-11-18

Here, perennial, cellulosic bioenergy crops represent a risky investment. The potential for adoption of these crops depends not only on mean net returns, but also on the associated probability distributions and on the risk preferences of farmers. Using 6-year observed crop yield data from highly productive and marginally productive sites in the southern Great Lakes region and assuming risk neutrality, we calculate expected breakeven biomass yields and prices compared to corn ( Zea mays L.) as a benchmark. Next we develop Monte Carlo budget simulations based on stochastic crop prices and yields. The crop yield simulations decompose yield risk intomore » three components: crop establishment survival, time to maturity, and mature yield variability. Results reveal that corn with harvest of grain and 38% of stover (as cellulosic bioenergy feedstock) is both the most profitable and the least risky investment option. It dominates all perennial systems considered across a wide range of farmer risk preferences. Although not currently attractive for profit-oriented farmers who are risk neutral or risk averse, perennial bioenergy crops.« less

Investment risk in bioenergy crops

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Skevas, Theodoros; Swinton, Scott M.; Tanner, Sophia

Here, perennial, cellulosic bioenergy crops represent a risky investment. The potential for adoption of these crops depends not only on mean net returns, but also on the associated probability distributions and on the risk preferences of farmers. Using 6-year observed crop yield data from highly productive and marginally productive sites in the southern Great Lakes region and assuming risk neutrality, we calculate expected breakeven biomass yields and prices compared to corn ( Zea mays L.) as a benchmark. Next we develop Monte Carlo budget simulations based on stochastic crop prices and yields. The crop yield simulations decompose yield risk intomore » three components: crop establishment survival, time to maturity, and mature yield variability. Results reveal that corn with harvest of grain and 38% of stover (as cellulosic bioenergy feedstock) is both the most profitable and the least risky investment option. It dominates all perennial systems considered across a wide range of farmer risk preferences. Although not currently attractive for profit-oriented farmers who are risk neutral or risk averse, perennial bioenergy crops.« less

[Conditional pricing for innovative medicines in France: stop telling about risk-sharing!].

PubMed

Megerlin, F

2013-09-01

Across global borders and throughout the various sectors of health care, the search for viable methods to pay for value has intensified. Driven by soaring costs and constrained budgets, public and private payers are seeking innovative ways to incentivize providers and product manufacturers to focus on effective outcomes for patients according to key performance indexes. Conditional pricing and performance-based payment for innovative medicines could facilitate access to quasi-monopsonic french market, in a context of financial crisis, loss of reciprocal confidence, and growing aversion for therapeutic and economical uncertainty. However, we consider these new methods of payment should not be termed "risk-sharing agreements", a misleading term despite its common use today. They also should not impact the national list prices of medicines, that is a decisive tool for stabilizing international trade. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

An approach to quantify the heat wave strength and price a heat derivative for risk hedging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, Samuel S. P.; Kramps, Benedikt; Sun, Shirley X.; Bailey, Barbara

2012-01-01

Mitigating the heat stress via a derivative policy is a vital financial option for agricultural producers and other business sectors to strategically adapt to the climate change scenario. This study has provided an approach to identifying heat stress events and pricing the heat stress weather derivative due to persistent days of high surface air temperature (SAT). Cooling degree days (CDD) are used as the weather index for trade. In this study, a call-option model was used as an example for calculating the price of the index. Two heat stress indices were developed to describe the severity and physical impact of heat waves. The daily Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN-D) SAT data from 1901 to 2007 from the southern California, USA, were used. A major California heat wave that occurred 20-25 October 1965 was studied. The derivative price was calculated based on the call-option model for both long-term station data and the interpolated grid point data at a regular 0.1°×0.1° latitude-longitude grid. The resulting comparison indicates that (a) the interpolated data can be used as reliable proxy to price the CDD and (b) a normal distribution model cannot always be used to reliably calculate the CDD price. In conclusion, the data, models, and procedures described in this study have potential application in hedging agricultural and other risks.

Behavioral economics survey of patients with type 1 and type 2 diabetes

PubMed Central

Emoto, Naoya; Okajima, Fumitaka; Sugihara, Hitoshi; Goto, Rei

2015-01-01

Background Adherence to treatment and the metabolic control of diabetes are challenging in many patients with diabetes. The theory of neuroeconomics can provide important clues for understanding unreasonable human behavior concerning decisions between outcomes occurring at different time points. Objective We investigated patients with type 1 and type 2 diabetes to determine whether patients who are at a risk of developing complications are less risk averse. We also examined whether patients with type 1 and type 2 diabetes have different behavioral traits in decision making under risk. Methods We conducted a behavioral economics survey of 219 outpatients, 66 with type 1 diabetes and 153 with type 2 diabetes. All patients had been referred by general practitioners or other departments in the hospital. At the time of the survey, levels of hemoglobin A1c were not significantly different between patients with type 1 and type 2 diabetes. Results Patients with type 2 diabetes showed a lower response rate to the survey compared with patients with type 1 diabetes (71.9% vs 87.9%, P<0.01). Logistic regression analysis indicated that diabetic retinopathy was negatively associated with risk averse in pricing of hypothetical lotteries, myopic time preference, willingness to pay for preventive medicine, and levels of satisfaction with life. Diabetic nephropathy was also negatively associated with risk averse in pricing of hypothetical lotteries. Detailed analysis revealed that a lower proportion of patients with type 2 diabetes (22.7%) were categorized as risk averse compared with patients with type 1 diabetes (43.1%, P<0.05) in hypothetical lottery risk estimation. Conclusion This is the first report that investigated patients with diabetes in a clinical setting using a method based on behavioral economics. The results suggest that the attitude of patients toward risk plays an important role in the progress of the complications of diabetes. Different educational and psychological approaches may be necessary to assess patients with diabetes based on whether they have traits such as risk seeking or risk averse. PMID:25999700

Strategies for increasing fruit and vegetable intake in grocery stores and communities: policy, pricing, and environmental change.

PubMed

Glanz, Karen; Yaroch, Amy L

2004-09-01

Grocery stores and community settings are important and promising venues for environmental, policy, and pricing initiatives to increase fruit and vegetable intake. This article examines supermarket-based and community environmental, policy, and pricing strategies for increasing intake of fruits and vegetables and identifies promising strategies, research needs, and innovative opportunities for the future. The strategies, examples, and research reported here were identified through an extensive search of published journal articles, reports, and inquiries to leaders in the field. Recommendations were expanded with input from participants in the CDC/ACS-sponsored Fruit and Vegetable, Environment Policy and Pricing Workshop held in September of 2002. Four key types of grocery-store-based interventions include point-of-purchase (POP) information; reduced prices and coupons; increased availability, variety, and convenience; and promotion and advertising. There is strong support for the feasibility of these approaches and modest evidence of their efficacy in influencing eating behavior. Church-based programs, child care center policies, and multisectoral community approaches show promise. Both descriptive and intervention research are needed to develop and evaluate more effective environmental strategies to increase F&V intake in grocery stores and communities. Innovative strategies, partnerships, grass roots action involving economic development for low-income communities, and sustainability are important considerations.

A New Availability-Payment Model for Pricing Performance-Based Logistics Contracts

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-06-17

the contractor maintains a steady revenue (with profit ). Figure 4. Affine Controller Model for Availability Contract Acquisition Research Program... a bankruptcy constraint; and and Deduction(∙) are decision variables for contract design for the level one (public sector) problem. Given...UMD-CM-14-175 ACQUISITION RESEARCH PROGRAM SPONSORED REPORT SERIES A New “Availability-Payment” Model for Pricing Performance- Based

The roles of the trading time risks on stock investment return and risks in stock price crashes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jiang-Cheng; Dong, Zhi-Wei; Yang, Guo-Hui; Long, Chao

2017-03-01

The roles of the trading time risks (TTRs) on stock investment return and risks are investigated in the condition of stock price crashes with Hushen300 data (CSI300) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (ˆDJI), respectively. In order to describe the TTR, we employ the escape time that the stock price drops from the maximum to minimum value in a data window length (DWL). After theoretical and empirical research on probability density function of return, the results in both ˆDJI and CSI300 indicate that: (i) As increasing DWL, the expectation of returns and its stability are weakened. (ii) An optimal TTR is related to a maximum return and minimum risk of stock investment in stock price crashes.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of alternative factor VIII products in treatment of haemophilia A.

PubMed

Hay, J W; Ernst, R L; Kessler, C M

1999-05-01

Manufactured factor VIII (FVIII) concentrates of varying purity are available for managing patients with haemophilia A. This study is a cost-effectiveness analysis of ultra-high purity and recombinant (UHP/R) FVIII products relative to intermediate and very-high purity (IP/VHP) preparations. Because the societal (including research and development) costs of FVIII products are unknown and product prices vary with market conditions, we conducted the analysis with treatment cost as a variable quantity. We estimated the largest price premium that could be paid for a UHP/R concentrate relative to an IP/VHP concentrate such that the UHP/R product is the more cost-effective preparation. In the analysis haemophilic patients were assumed to be seropositive for human immunodeficiency virus, seropositive for hepatitis C (HCV), or at risk for seroconversion of hepatitis A (HAV) or hepatitis B (HBV). The results showed that the maximum cost-effective UHP/R price premium is essentially zero if the patient is only at risk of HAV or HBV infection, positive but small for the base-case HCV+ patient, and positive and large for the base-case HIV+ patient having a short life expectancy. Thus UHP/R preparations are not uniformly more cost-effective than IP/VHP products across the spectrum of haemophilic patients' health problems, and the relative cost-effectiveness of the two classes of prepared FVIII products is sensitive to product prices. The methodology employed here can be used in other circumstances where multiple treatments exist for illnesses for which there are significant multiple comorbidities or health risks.

The role of storage dynamics in annual wheat prices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schewe, Jacob; Otto, Christian; Frieler, Katja

2017-05-01

Identifying the drivers of global crop price fluctuations is essential for estimating the risks of unexpected weather-induced production shortfalls and for designing optimal response measures. Here we show that with a consistent representation of storage dynamics, a simple supply-demand model can explain most of the observed variations in wheat prices over the last 40 yr solely based on time series of annual production and long term demand trends. Even the most recent price peaks in 2007/08 and 2010/11 can be explained by additionally accounting for documented changes in countries’ trade policies and storage strategies, without the need for external drivers such as oil prices or speculation across different commodity or stock markets. This underlines the critical sensitivity of global prices to fluctuations in production. The consistent inclusion of storage into a dynamic supply-demand model closes an important gap when it comes to exploring potential responses to future crop yield variability under climate and land-use change.

Value at Risk on Composite Price Share Index Stock Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oktaviarina, A.

2018-01-01

The financial servicest authority was declared Let’s Save Campaign on n commemoration of the World Savings Day that falls on this day, October 31, 2016. The activity was greeted enthusiastically by Indonesia Stock Exchange by taking out the slogan Let’s Save The Stocks. Stock is a form of investment that is expected to benefit in the future despite has risks. Value at Risk (VaR) is a method that can measure how much the risk of a financial investment. Composite Stock Price Indeks is the stock price index used by Indonesia Stock Exchange as stock volatility benchmarks in Indonesia. This study aimed to estimate Value at Risk (VaR) on closing price Composite Price Share Index Stock data on the period 20 September 2016 until 20 September 2017. Box-Pierce test results p value=0.9528 which is greater than a, that shows homoskedasticity. Value at Risk (VaR) with Variance Covariance Method is Rp.3.054.916,07 which means with 99% confindence interval someone who invests Rp.100.000.000,00 will get Rp.3.054.916,07 as a maximum loss.

Switching insurer in the Irish voluntary health insurance market: determinants, incentives, and risk equalization.

PubMed

Keegan, Conor; Teljeur, Conor; Turner, Brian; Thomas, Steve

2016-09-01

The determinants of consumer mobility in voluntary health insurance markets providing duplicate cover are not well understood. Consumer mobility can have important implications for competition. Consumers should be price-responsive and be willing to switch insurer in search of the best-value products. Moreover, although theory suggests low-risk consumers are more likely to switch insurer, this process should not be driven by insurers looking to attract low risks. This study utilizes data on 320,830 VHI healthcare policies due for renewal between August 2013 and June 2014. At the time of renewal, policyholders were categorized as either 'switchers' or 'stayers', and policy information was collected for the prior 12 months. Differences between these groups were assessed by means of logistic regression. The ability of Ireland's risk equalization scheme to account for the relative attractiveness of switchers was also examined. Policyholders were price sensitive (OR 1.052, p < 0.01), however, price-sensitivity declined with age. Age (OR 0.971; p < 0.01) and hospital utilization (OR 0.977; p < 0.01) were both negatively associated with switching. In line with these findings, switchers were less costly than stayers for the 12 months prior to the switch/renew decision for single person (difference in average cost = €540.64) and multiple-person policies (difference in average cost = €450.74). Some cost differences remain for single-person policies following risk equalization (difference in average cost = €88.12). Consumers appear price-responsive, which is important for competition provided it is based on correct incentives. Risk equalization payments largely eliminated the profitable status of switchers, although further refinements may be required.

Drug Prices and Emergency Department Mentions for Cocaine and Heroin

PubMed Central

Caulkins, Jonathan P.

2001-01-01

Objectives. In this report, the author illustrates the historic relation between retail drug prices and emergency department mentions for cocaine and heroin. Methods. Price series based on the Drug Enforcement Administration's System to Retrieve Information From Drug Evidence database were correlated with data on emergency department mentions from the Drug Abuse Warning Network for cocaine (1978–1996) and heroin (1981–1996). Results. A simple model in which emergency department mentions are driven by only prices explains more than 95% of the variation in emergency department mentions. Conclusions. Fluctuations in prices are an important determinant of adverse health outcomes associated with drugs. PMID:11527779

"Price-quakes" shaking the world's stock exchanges.

PubMed

Andersen, Jørgen Vitting; Nowak, Andrzej; Rotundo, Giulia; Parrott, Lael; Martinez, Sebastian

2011-01-01

Systemic risk has received much more awareness after the excessive risk taking by major financial instituations pushed the world's financial system into what many considered a state of near systemic failure in 2008. The IMF for example in its yearly 2009 Global Financial Stability Report acknowledged the lack of proper tools and research on the topic. Understanding how disruptions can propagate across financial markets is therefore of utmost importance. Here, we use empirical data to show that the world's markets have a non-linear threshold response to events, consistent with the hypothesis that traders exhibit change blindness. Change blindness is the tendency of humans to ignore small changes and to react disproportionately to large events. As we show, this may be responsible for generating cascading events--pricequakes--in the world's markets. We propose a network model of the world's stock exchanges that predicts how an individual stock exchange should be priced in terms of the performance of the global market of exchanges, but with change blindness included in the pricing. The model has a direct correspondence to models of earth tectonic plate movements developed in physics to describe the slip-stick movement of blocks linked via spring forces. We have shown how the price dynamics of the world's stock exchanges follows a dynamics of build-up and release of stress, similar to earthquakes. The nonlinear response allows us to classify price movements of a given stock index as either being generated internally, due to specific economic news for the country in question, or externally, by the ensemble of the world's stock exchanges reacting together like a complex system. The model may provide new insight into the origins and thereby also prevent systemic risks in the global financial network.

“Price-Quakes” Shaking the World's Stock Exchanges

PubMed Central

Andersen, Jørgen Vitting; Nowak, Andrzej; Rotundo, Giulia; Parrott, Lael; Martinez, Sebastian

2011-01-01

Background Systemic risk has received much more awareness after the excessive risk taking by major financial instituations pushed the world's financial system into what many considered a state of near systemic failure in 2008. The IMF for example in its yearly 2009 Global Financial Stability Report acknowledged the lack of proper tools and research on the topic. Understanding how disruptions can propagate across financial markets is therefore of utmost importance. Methodology/Principal Findings Here, we use empirical data to show that the world's markets have a non-linear threshold response to events, consistent with the hypothesis that traders exhibit change blindness. Change blindness is the tendency of humans to ignore small changes and to react disproportionately to large events. As we show, this may be responsible for generating cascading events—pricequakes—in the world's markets. We propose a network model of the world's stock exchanges that predicts how an individual stock exchange should be priced in terms of the performance of the global market of exchanges, but with change blindness included in the pricing. The model has a direct correspondence to models of earth tectonic plate movements developed in physics to describe the slip-stick movement of blocks linked via spring forces. Conclusions/Significance We have shown how the price dynamics of the world's stock exchanges follows a dynamics of build-up and release of stress, similar to earthquakes. The nonlinear response allows us to classify price movements of a given stock index as either being generated internally, due to specific economic news for the country in question, or externally, by the ensemble of the world's stock exchanges reacting together like a complex system. The model may provide new insight into the origins and thereby also prevent systemic risks in the global financial network. PMID:22073168

Pricing and reimbursement of pharmaceuticals in the Czech Republic and Sweden.

PubMed

Davidova, Jana; Praznovcova, Lenka; Lundborg, Cecilia Stålsby

2008-01-01

To describe and compare price regulation and reimbursement in the Czech Republic and Sweden. Legal documents, government reports, statutory information, annual reports and scientific articles were searched using the keywords: pharmaceutical market regulation, drug policy, drug pricing, drug reimbursement and patients' participation in costs concerning both countries. Approaches to regulation and regulatory steps concerning prices were compared between the countries. (i) Institutional responsibilities in pricing and reimbursement of pharmaceuticals; (ii) principles of patients' participation in costs on pharmaceuticals. Substantial differences were found in terms of pricing. In the Czech Republic, the Ministry of Finance sets maximal prices for pharmaceuticals whereas in Sweden there is a process of price regulation combined with reimbursement decisions taken by the Pharmaceutical Benefits Board. Together with a system of state-owned pharmacies, this ensures that drug prices in Sweden are fixed at the same level throughout the country. In the Czech Republic, prices may differ, since only maximal price levels are set. In both countries, decisions about reimbursement are taken at the national or state level whereas insurance funds or county councils are responsible for covering costs. The private share of pharmaceutical expenditures is substantially lower in the Czech Republic, even though there is no maximal level for patient's co-payment, as there is in Sweden. Differences in price setting and some other regulations of the pharmaceutical market were found. Both systems are designed to promote rational use of pharmaceuticals; and are based on social solidarity.

Discrete choice experiment of smoking cessation behaviour in Japan.

PubMed

Goto, Rei; Nishimura, Shuzo; Ida, Takanori

2007-10-01

In spite of gradual increases in tobacco price and the introduction of laws supporting various anti-tobacco measures, the proportion of smokers in Japan's population is still higher than in other developed nations. To understand what information and individual characteristics drive smokers to attempt to quit smoking. These determinants will help to realise effective tobacco control policy as a base for understanding of cessation behaviour. Discrete choice experiments on a total of 616 respondents registered at a consumer monitoring investigative company. The effect of price is greater on smokers with lower nicotine dependence. For smokers of moderate and low dependency, short term health risks and health risks caused by passive smoking have a strong impact, though the existence of penalties and long term health risks have little influence on smokers' decisions to quit. For highly dependent smokers, non-price attributes have little impact. Furthermore, the effects of age, sex and knowledge are also not uniform in accounting for smoking cessation. Determinants of smoking cessation vary among levels of nicotine dependency. Therefore, how and what information is provided needs to be carefully considered when counselling smokers to help them to quit.

48 CFR 215.404-71-3 - Contract type risk and working capital adjustment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... provisions for performance-based payments, do not compute a working capital adjustment. (d) Evaluation... working capital adjustment. 215.404-71-3 Section 215.404-71-3 Federal Acquisition Regulations System... CONTRACTING BY NEGOTIATION Contract Pricing 215.404-71-3 Contract type risk and working capital adjustment. (a...

Evidence for the effectiveness of minimum pricing of alcohol: a systematic review and assessment using the Bradford Hill criteria for causality.

PubMed

Boniface, Sadie; Scannell, Jack W; Marlow, Sally

2017-06-06

To assess the evidence for price-based alcohol policy interventions to determine whether minimum unit pricing (MUP) is likely to be effective. Systematic review and assessment of studies according to Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines, against the Bradford Hill criteria for causality. Three electronic databases were searched from inception to February 2017. Additional articles were found through hand searching and grey literature searches. We included any study design that reported on the effect of price-based interventions on alcohol consumption or alcohol-related morbidity, mortality and wider harms. Studies reporting on the effects of taxation or affordability and studies that only investigated price elasticity of demand were beyond the scope of this review. Studies with any conflict of interest were excluded. All studies were appraised for methodological quality. Of 517 studies assessed, 33 studies were included: 26 peer-reviewed research studies and seven from the grey literature. All nine of the Bradford Hill criteria were met, although different types of study satisfied different criteria. For example, modelling studies complied with the consistency and specificity criteria, time series analyses demonstrated the temporality and experiment criteria, and the analogy criterion was fulfilled by comparing the findings with the wider literature on taxation and affordability. Overall, the Bradford Hill criteria for causality were satisfied. There was very little evidence that minimum alcohol prices are not associated with consumption or subsequent harms. However the overall quality of the evidence was variable, a large proportion of the evidence base has been produced by a small number of research teams, and the quantitative uncertainty in many estimates or forecasts is often poorly communicated outside the academic literature. Nonetheless, price-based alcohol policy interventions such as MUP are likely to reduce alcohol consumption, alcohol-related morbidity and mortality. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Affordability Challenges to Value-Based Pricing: Mass Diseases, Orphan Diseases, and Cures.

PubMed

Danzon, Patricia M

2018-03-01

To analyze how value-based pricing (VBP), which grounds the price paid for pharmaceuticals in their value, can manage "affordability" challenges, defined as drugs that meet cost-effectiveness thresholds but are "unaffordable" within the short-run budget. Three specific contexts are examined, drawing on recent experience. First, an effective new treatment for a chronic, progressive disease, such as hepatitis C, creates a budget spike that is transitory because initial prevalence is high, relative to current incidence. Second, "cures" that potentially provide lifetime benefits may claim abnormally high VBP prices, with high immediate budget impact potentially/partially offset by deferred cost savings. Third, although orphan drugs in principle target rare diseases, in aggregate they pose affordability concerns because of the growing number of orphan indications and increasingly high prices. For mass diseases, the transitory budget impact of treating the accumulated patient stock can be managed by stratified rollout that delays treatment of stable patients and prioritizes patients at high risk of deterioration. Delay spreads the budget impact and permits potential savings from launch of competing treatments. For cures, installment payments contingent on outcomes could align payment flows and appropriately shift risk to producers. This approach, however, entails high administrative and incentive costs, especially if applied across multiple payers in the United States. For orphan drugs, the available evidence on research and development trends and returns argues against the need for a higher VBP threshold to incentivize research and development in orphan drugs, given existing statutory benefits under orphan drug legislation. Copyright © 2018 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Assessing the potential effectiveness of food and beverage taxes and subsidies for improving public health: a systematic review of prices, demand and body weight outcomes.

PubMed

Powell, L M; Chriqui, J F; Khan, T; Wada, R; Chaloupka, F J

2013-02-01

Taxes and subsidies are increasingly being considered as potential policy instruments to incentivize consumers to improve their food and beverage consumption patterns and related health outcomes. This study provided a systematic review of recent U.S. studies on the price elasticity of demand for sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs), fast food, and fruits and vegetables, as well as the direct associations of prices/taxes with body weight outcomes. Based on the recent literature, the price elasticity of demand for SSBs, fast food, fruits and vegetables was estimated to be -1.21, -0.52, -0.49 and -0.48, respectively. The studies that linked soda taxes to weight outcomes showed minimal impacts on weight; however, they were based on existing state-level sales taxes that were relatively low. Higher fast-food prices were associated with lower weight outcomes particularly among adolescents, suggesting that raising prices would potentially impact weight outcomes. Lower fruit and vegetable prices were generally found to be associated with lower body weight outcomes among both low-income children and adults, suggesting that subsidies that would reduce the cost of fruits and vegetables for lower-socioeconomic populations may be effective in reducing obesity. Pricing instruments should continue to be considered and evaluated as potential policy instruments to address public health risks. © 2012 The Authors. obesity reviews © 2012 International Association for the Study of Obesity.

Green Pricing Program Marketing Expenditures: Finding the Right Balance

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Friedman, B.; Miller, M.

In practice, it is difficult to determine the optimal amount to spend on marketing and administering a green pricing program. Budgets for marketing and administration of green pricing programs are a function of several factors: the region of the country; the size of the utility service area; the customer base and media markets encompassed within that service area; the point or stage in the lifespan of the program; and certainly, not least, the utility's commitment to and goals for the program. All of these factors vary significantly among programs. This report presents data on programs that have funded both marketingmore » and program administration. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) gathers the data annually from utility green pricing program managers. Programs reporting data to NREL spent a median of 18.8% of program revenues on marketing their programs in 2008 and 16.6% in 2007. The smallest utilities (those with less than 25,000 in their eligible customer base) spent 49% of revenues on marketing, significantly more than the overall median. This report addresses the role of renewable energy credit (REC) marketers and start-up costs--and the role of marketing, generally, in achieving program objectives, including expansion of renewable energy.« less

Exploring agent-level calculations of risk and returns in relation to observed land-use changes in the US Great Plains, 1870–1940

PubMed Central

Sylvester, Kenneth M.; Brown, Daniel G.; Leonard, Susan H.; Merchant, Emily; Hutchins, Meghan

2015-01-01

Land-use change in the U.S. Great Plains since agricultural settlement in the second half of the nineteenth century has been well documented. While aggregate historical trends are easily tracked, the decision-making of individual farmers is difficult to reconstruct. We use an agent-based model to tell the history of the settlement of the West by simulating farm-level agricultural decision making based on historical data about prices, yields, farming costs, and environmental conditions. The empirical setting for the model is the period between 1875 and 1940 in two townships in Kansas, one in the shortgrass region and the other in the mixed grass region. Annual historical data on yields and prices determine profitability of various land uses and thereby inform decision-making, in conjunction with the farmer’s previous experience and randomly assigned levels of risk aversion. Results illustrating the level of agreement between model output and unique and detailed household-level records of historical land use and farm size suggest that economic behavior and natural endowments account for land change processes to some degree, but are incomplete. Discrepancies are examined to identify missing processes through model experiments, in which we adjust input and output prices, crop yields, agent memory, and risk aversion. These analyses demonstrate how agent-based modeling can be a useful laboratory for thinking about social and economic behavior in the past. PMID:25729323

Policy options for alcohol price regulation: the importance of modelling population heterogeneity.

PubMed

Meier, Petra Sylvia; Purshouse, Robin; Brennan, Alan

2010-03-01

Context and aims Internationally, the repertoire of alcohol pricing policies has expanded to include targeted taxation, inflation-linked taxation, taxation based on alcohol-by-volume (ABV), minimum pricing policies (general or targeted), bans of below-cost selling and restricting price-based promotions. Policy makers clearly need to consider how options compare in reducing harms at the population level, but are also required to demonstrate proportionality of their actions, which necessitates a detailed understanding of policy effects on different population subgroups. This paper presents selected findings from a policy appraisal for the UK government and discusses the importance of accounting for population heterogeneity in such analyses. Method We have built a causal, deterministic, epidemiological model which takes account of differential preferences by population subgroups defined by age, gender and level of drinking (moderate, hazardous, harmful). We consider purchasing preferences in terms of the types and volumes of alcoholic beverages, prices paid and the balance between bars, clubs and restaurants as opposed to supermarkets and off-licenses. Results Age, sex and level of drinking fundamentally affect beverage preferences, drinking location, prices paid, price sensitivity and tendency to substitute for other beverage types. Pricing policies vary in their impact on different product types, price points and venues, thus having distinctly different effects on subgroups. Because population subgroups also have substantially different risk profiles for harms, policies are differentially effective in reducing health, crime, work-place absence and unemployment harms. Conclusion Policy appraisals must account for population heterogeneity and complexity if resulting interventions are to be well considered, proportionate, effective and cost-effective.

A dataset on tail risk of commodities markets.

PubMed

Powell, Robert J; Vo, Duc H; Pham, Thach N; Singh, Abhay K

2017-12-01

This article contains the datasets related to the research article "The long and short of commodity tails and their relationship to Asian equity markets"(Powell et al., 2017) [1]. The datasets contain the daily prices (and price movements) of 24 different commodities decomposed from the S&P GSCI index and the daily prices (and price movements) of three share market indices including World, Asia, and South East Asia for the period 2004-2015. Then, the dataset is divided into annual periods, showing the worst 5% of price movements for each year. The datasets are convenient to examine the tail risk of different commodities as measured by Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) as well as their changes over periods. The datasets can also be used to investigate the association between commodity markets and share markets.

Analysis of the transmission characteristics of China's carbon market transaction price volatility from the perspective of a complex network.

PubMed

Jia, Jingjing; Li, Huajiao; Zhou, Jinsheng; Jiang, Meihui; Dong, Di

2018-03-01

Research on the price fluctuation transmission of the carbon trading pilot market is of great significance for the establishment of China's unified carbon market and its development in the future. In this paper, the carbon market transaction prices of Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, Shenzhen, and Guangdong were selected from December 29, 2013 to March 26, 2016, as sample data. Based on the view of the complex network theory, we construct a price fluctuation transmission network model of five pilot carbon markets in China, with the purposes of analyzing the topological features of this network, including point intensity, weighted clustering coefficient, betweenness centrality, and community structure, and elucidating the characteristics and transmission mechanism of price fluctuation in China's five pilot cities. The results of point intensity and weighted clustering coefficient show that the carbon prices in the five markets remained unchanged and transmitted smoothly in general, and price fragmentation is serious; however, at some point, the price fluctuates with mass phenomena. The result of betweenness centrality reflects that a small number of price fluctuations can control the whole market carbon price transmission and price fluctuation evolves in an alternate manner. The study provides direction for the scientific management of the carbon price. Policy makers should take a positive role in promoting market activity, preventing the risks that may arise from mass trade and scientifically forecasting the volatility of trading prices, which will provide experience for the establishment of a unified carbon market in China.

7 CFR 1170.8 - Price reporting specifications.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

...) Specifications for Dry Whey Prices: (1) Variety: Edible nonhygroscopic. (2) Age: No more than 180 days. (3) Grade..., or tanker. (5) Exclude: Sales of Grade A dry whey, intra-company sales, resales of purchased dry whey... transaction was completed), dry whey produced under faith-based close supervision and marketed at a higher...

Diversifying Fiscal Support by Pricing Public Library Services: A Policy Impact Analysis.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hicks, Donald A.

1980-01-01

Addresses the possibility of diversifying the resource base of public libraries dependent on property taxes for funding through the setting of fees for library services, and reports on a pricing policy adopted by the Dallas Public Library System. Twenty-seven references are cited. (FM)

Managing risks of market price uncertainty for a microgrid operation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raghavan, Sriram

After deregulation of electricity in the United States, the day-ahead and real-time markets allow load serving entities and generation companies to bid and purchase/sell energy under the supervision of the independent system operator (ISO). The electricity market prices are inherently uncertain, and can be highly volatile. The main objective of this thesis is to hedge against the risk from the uncertainty of the market prices when purchasing/selling energy from/to the market. The energy manager can also schedule distributed generators (DGs) and storage of the microgrid to meet the demand, in addition to energy transactions from the market. The risk measure used in this work is the variance of the uncertain market purchase/sale cost/revenue, assuming the price following a Gaussian distribution. Using Markowitz optimization, the risk is minimized to find the optimal mix of purchase from the markets. The problem is formulated as a mixed integer quadratic program. The microgrid at Illinois Institute of Technology (IIT) in Chicago, IL was used as a case study. The result of this work reveals the tradeoff faced by the microgrid energy manager between minimizing the risk and minimizing the mean of the total operating cost (TOC) of the microgrid. With this information, the microgrid energy manager can make decisions in the day-ahead and real-time markets according to their risk aversion preference. The assumption of market prices following Gaussian distribution is also verified to be reasonable for the purpose of hedging against their risks. This is done by comparing the result of the proposed formulation with that obtained from the sample market prices randomly generated using the distribution of actual historic market price data.

Self-reported price of cigarettes, consumption and compensatory behaviours in a cohort of Mexican smokers before and after a cigarette tax increase.

PubMed

Saenz-de-Miera, Belen; Thrasher, James F; Chaloupka, Frank J; Waters, Hugh R; Hernandez-Avila, Mauricio; Fong, Geoffrey T

2010-12-01

To assess the impact of a 2007 cigarette tax increase from 110% to 140% of the price to the retailer on cigarette price and consumption among Mexican smokers, including efforts to offset price increases. Data were analysed from the 2006 and 2007 administrations of the International Tobacco Control (ITC) Policy Evaluation Survey in Mexico, which is a population-based cohort of adult smokers. Self-reported price of last cigarette purchase, place of last purchase, preferred brand, daily consumption and quit behaviour were assessed at baseline and follow-up. Self-reported cigarette prices increased by 12.7% after the tax increase, with prices for international brands increasing more than for national brands (13.5% vs 8.7%, respectively). Although the tax increases were not fully passed onto consumers particularly on national brands, no evidence was found for smokers changing behaviour to offset price increases. Consistent declines in consumption across groups defined by sociodemographic and smoking-related psychosocial variables suggest a relatively uniform impact of the tax increase across subpopulations. However, decreased consumption appeared limited to people who smoked relatively more cigarettes a day (>5 cigarettes/day). Average daily consumption among lighter smokers did not significantly decline. A total of 13% (n=98) of the sample reported being quit for a month or more at follow-up. In multivariate models, lighter smokers were more likely than heavier smokers to be quit. Results suggest that the 2007 tax increase was passed on to consumers, whose consumption generally declined. Since no other tobacco control policies or programmes were implemented during the period analysed, the tax increase appears likely to have decreased consumption.

Self-reported price of cigarettes, consumption and compensatory behaviours in a cohort of Mexican smokers before and after a cigarette tax increase

PubMed Central

Saenz-de-Miera, Belen; Chaloupka, Frank J; Waters, Hugh R; Hernandez-Avila, Mauricio; Fong, Geoffrey T

2010-01-01

Objective To assess the impact of a 2007 cigarette tax increase from 110% to 140% of the price to the retailer on cigarette price and consumption among Mexican smokers, including efforts to offset price increases. Methods Data were analysed from the 2006 and 2007 administrations of the International Tobacco Control (ITC) Policy Evaluation Survey in Mexico, which is a population-based cohort of adult smokers. Self-reported price of last cigarette purchase, place of last purchase, preferred brand, daily consumption and quit behaviour were assessed at baseline and follow-up. Results Self-reported cigarette prices increased by 12.7% after the tax increase, with prices for international brands increasing more than for national brands (13.5% vs 8.7%, respectively). Although the tax increases were not fully passed onto consumers particularly on national brands, no evidence was found for smokers changing behaviour to offset price increases. Consistent declines in consumption across groups defined by sociodemographic and smoking-related psychosocial variables suggest a relatively uniform impact of the tax increase across subpopulations. However, decreased consumption appeared limited to people who smoked relatively more cigarettes a day (>5 cigarettes/day). Average daily consumption among lighter smokers did not significantly decline. A total of 13% (n=98) of the sample reported being quit for a month or more at follow-up. In multivariate models, lighter smokers were more likely than heavier smokers to be quit. Conclusions Results suggest that the 2007 tax increase was passed on to consumers, whose consumption generally declined. Since no other tobacco control policies or programmes were implemented during the period analysed, the tax increase appears likely to have decreased consumption. PMID:20870740

Can Payers Use Prices to Improve Quality? Evidence from English Hospitals.

PubMed

Allen, Thomas; Fichera, Eleonora; Sutton, Matt

2016-01-01

In most activity-based financing systems, payers set prices reactively based on historical averages of hospital reported costs. If hospitals respond to prices, payers might set prices proactively to affect the volume of particular treatments or clinical practice. We evaluate the effects of a unique initiative in England in which the price offered to hospitals for discharging patients on the same day as a particular procedure was increased by 24%, while the price for inpatient treatment remained unchanged. Using national hospital records for 205,784 patients admitted for the incentivised procedure and 838,369 patients admitted for a range of non-incentivised procedures between 1 December 2007 and 31 March 2011, we consider whether this price change had the intended effect and/or produced unintended effects. We find that the price change led to an almost six percentage point increase in the daycase rate and an 11 percentage point increase in the planned daycase rate. Patients benefited from a lower proportion of procedures reverted to open surgery during a planned laparoscopic procedure and from a reduction in long stays. There was no evidence that readmission and death rates were affected. The results suggest that payers can set prices proactively to incentivise hospitals to improve quality. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Student Financing of Undergraduate Education: 2003-04. With a Special Analysis of the Net Price of Attendance and Federal Education Tax Benefits. Statistical Analysis Report. NCES 2006-186

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Berkner, Lutz; Wei, Christina Chang

2006-01-01

This report, based on data from the 2003-04 National Postsecondary Student Aid Study (NASAS:04), provides detailed information about undergraduate tuition and total price of attendance at various types of institutions, the percentage of students receiving various types of financial aid, and the average amounts that they received. In 2003-04,…

75 FR 72611 - Assessments, Large Bank Pricing

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-11-24

... the worst risk ranking and are included in the statistical analysis. Appendix 1 to the NPR describes the statistical analysis in detail. \\12\\ The percentage approximated by factors is based on the statistical model for that particual year. Actual weights assigned to each scorecard measure are largely based...

On the hypothetical universal use of statins in primary prevention: an observational analysis on low-risk patients and economic consequences of a potential wide prescription rate.

PubMed

Macchia, Alejandro; Mariani, Javier; Romero, Marilena; Robusto, Fabio; Lepore, Vito; Dettorre, Antonio; Tognoni, Gianni

2015-04-01

Recent guidelines expand indications for statins. However, research on practical economic feasibility and cost-effectiveness in low-risk people is lacking. We aimed to describe the incidence of cardiovascular events (CVE), their total direct costs and the hypothetical effects of wide provision of statins on those rates and expenditures. We conducted a population-based cohort study using administrative data among low risk individuals. Estimators of effects of statins were taken from Cholesterol Treatment trialist metaanalysis and from Heart Protection Study trial. Two statin prices were used for analyses: National Italian Health System (€ 0.36) and the International Drug Price Indicator (€ 0.021). Overall, 920,067 persons at low risk were identified and 14,849 CVE were registered (incidence rate 27.3 per 10,000 person-years). Direct costs for hospitalizations for CVE were 143 M €. Universal provision of statins would result in a significant decrease in CVE rates, from 27.3 to 17.5 per 10,000 person-years (PY) (95% confidence interval (CI): 15.8-19.4). Universal prescription of simvastatin 20 mg would cost 802 M €. Otherwise, provision of simvastatin at International Drug Price Indicator's prices would be both clinically effective and cost saving in men older than age 44 (observed expenditures 120 M €, expected 97.4 M €) but not in women (observed expenditures 22.7 M €, expected 36.5 M €). Among a low-risk population, hypothetical universal provision of low-cost simvastatin to men over 44 years could be both clinically effective and a cost-saving strategy.

Discounts and rebates granted to public payers for medicines in European countries

PubMed Central

Vogler, Sabine; Zimmermann, Nina; Habl, Claudia; Piessnegger, Jutta; Bucsics, Anna

2012-01-01

Objective: The objective of this study was to provide an overview about the existence and types of discounts and rebates granted to public payers by the pharmaceutical industry in European countries. Methods: Data were collected via a questionnaire in spring 2011. Officials from public authorities for pharmaceutical pricing and reimbursement represented in the PPRI (Pharmaceutical Pricing and Reimbursement Information) network provided the information and reviewed the compilation. Results: Information is available from 31 European countries. Discounts and rebates granted to public payers by pharmaceutical industry were reported for 25 European countries. Such discounts exist both in the in- and out-patient sectors in 21 countries and in the in-patient sector only in four countries. Six countries reported not having any regulations or agreements regarding the discounts and rebates granted by industry. The most common discounts and rebates are price reductions and refunds linked to sales volume but types such as in-kind support, price-volume and risk-sharing agreements are also in place. A mix of various types of discounts and rebates is common. Many of these arrangements are confidential. Differences regarding types, the organizational and legal framework, validity and frequency of updates and the amount of the discounts and rebates granted exist among the surveyed countries. Conclusions: In Europe, discounts and rebates on medicines granted by pharmaceutical industry to public payers are common tools to contain public pharmaceutical expenditure. They appear to be used as a complimentary measure when price regulation does not achieve the desired results and in the few European countries with no or limited price regulation. The confidential character of many of these arrangements impedes transparency and may lead to a distortion of medicines prices. An analysis of the impact on these measures is recommended. PMID:23093898

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Goodsell, J.N.

Mexico's new president faces an economic crisis of high inflation, corruption, and overextended borrowing to finance an ambitious development program based on anticipated oil revenues. The decline of world oil prices in 1981 and the depressed prices of other export commodities led to extensive borrowing from foreign banks, which saw Mexico's oil riches as a good risk. Despite its overpopulation and related socio-economic problems, Mexico's oil resources will be the foundation of economic development even though the government must move first to restore public confidence and diversify the economy. (DCK)

Bring real capitalism to electric utilities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Powers, B.F.

1991-01-15

This article examines the reasons that the electric utilities are price regulated and makes an argument for market-based economics to regulate prices and stimulate revolutionary improvements in the industry. The author examines and refutes the arguments that: The industry is a natural monopoly; Competition leads to unnecessary duplication of facilities; and The industry is so vital to the economy and security of the US that it cannot be trusted to the risks inherent in capitalism, including the success and failure of companies.

Nuclear Physicists in Finance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mattoni, Carlo

2017-01-01

The financial services industry presents an interesting alternative career path for nuclear physicists. Careers in finance typically offer intellectual challenge, a fast pace, high caliber colleagues, merit-based compensation with substantial upside, and an opportunity to deploy skills learned as a physicist. Physicists are employed at a wide range of financial institutions on both the ``buy side'' (hedge fund managers, private equity managers, mutual fund managers, etc.) and the ``sell side'' (investment banks and brokerages). Historically, physicists in finance were primarily ``quants'' tasked with applying stochastic calculus to determine the price of financial derivatives. With the maturation of the field of derivative pricing, physicists in finance today find work in a variety of roles ranging from quantification and management of risk to investment analysis to development of sophisticated software used to price, trade, and risk manage securities. Only a small subset of today's finance careers for physicists require the use of advanced math and practically none provide an opportunity to tinker with an apparatus, yet most nevertheless draw on important skills honed during the training of a nuclear physicist. Intellectually rigorous critical thinking, sophisticated problem solving, an attention to minute detail and an ability to create and test hypotheses based on incomplete information are key to both disciplines.

Sustainable Financing of Innovative Therapies: A Review of Approaches.

PubMed

Hollis, Aidan

2016-10-01

The process of innovation is inherently complex, and it occurs within an even more complex institutional environment characterized by incomplete information, market power, and externalities. There are therefore different competing approaches to supporting and financing innovation in medical technologies, which bring their own advantages and disadvantages. This article reviews value- and cost-based pricing, as well direct government funding, and cross-cutting institutional structures. It argues that performance-based risk-sharing agreements are likely to have little effect on the sustainability of financing; that there is a role for cost-based pricing models in some situations; and that the push towards longer exclusivity periods is likely contrary to the interests of industry.

National reimbursement listing determinants of new cancer drugs: a retrospective analysis of 58 cancer treatment appraisals in 2007-2016 in South Korea.

PubMed

Kim, Eun-Sook; Kim, Jung-Ae; Lee, Eui-Kyung

2017-08-01

Since the positive-list system was introduced, concerns have been raised over restricting access to new cancer drugs in Korea. Policy changes in the decision-making process, such as risk-sharing agreement and the waiver of pharmacoeconomic data submission, were implemented to improve access to oncology medicines, and other factors are also involved in the reimbursement for cancer drugs. The aim of this study is to investigate the reimbursement listing determinants of new cancer drugs in Korea. All cancer treatment appraisals of Health Insurance Review and Assessment during 2007-2016 were analyzed based on 13 independent variables (comparative effectiveness, cost-effectiveness, drug-price comparison, oncology-specific policy, and innovation such as new mode of action). Univariate and multivariate logistic analyses were conducted. Of 58 analyzed submissions, 40% were listed in the national reimbursement formulary. In univariate analysis, four variables were related to listing: comparative effectiveness, drug-price comparison, new mode of action, and risk-sharing agreement. In multivariate logistic analysis, three variables significantly increased the likelihood of listing: clinical improvement, below alternative's price, and risk-sharing arrangement. Cancer drug's listing increased from 17% to 47% after risk-sharing agreement implementation. Clinical improvement, cost-effectiveness, and RSA application are critical to successful national reimbursement listing.

Assessing the potential of economic instruments for managing drought risk at river basin scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pulido-Velazquez, M.; Lopez-Nicolas, A.; Macian-Sorribes, H.

2015-12-01

Economic instruments work as incentives to adapt individual decisions to collectively agreed goals. Different types of economic instruments have been applied to manage water resources, such as water-related taxes and charges (water pricing, environmental taxes, etc.), subsidies, markets or voluntary agreements. Hydroeconomic models (HEM) provide useful insight on optimal strategies for coping with droughts by simultaneously analysing engineering, hydrology and economics of water resources management. We use HEMs for evaluating the potential of economic instruments on managing drought risk at river basin scale, considering three criteria for assessing drought risk: reliability, resilience and vulnerability. HEMs allow to calculate water scarcity costs as the economic losses due to water deliveries below the target demands, which can be used as a vulnerability descriptor of drought risk. Two generic hydroeconomic DSS tools, SIMGAMS and OPTIGAMS ( both programmed in GAMS) have been developed to evaluate water scarcity cost at river basin scale based on simulation and optimization approaches. The simulation tool SIMGAMS allocates water according to the system priorities and operating rules, and evaluate the scarcity costs using economic demand functions. The optimization tool allocates water resources for maximizing net benefits (minimizing total water scarcity plus operating cost of water use). SIMGAS allows to simulate incentive water pricing policies based on water availability in the system (scarcity pricing), while OPTIGAMS is used to simulate the effect of ideal water markets by economic optimization. These tools have been applied to the Jucar river system (Spain), highly regulated and with high share of water use for crop irrigation (greater than 80%), where water scarcity, irregular hydrology and groundwater overdraft cause droughts to have significant economic, social and environmental consequences. An econometric model was first used to explain the variation of the production value of irrigated agriculture during droughts, assessing revenue responses to varying crop prices and water availability. Hydroeconomic approaches were then used to show the potential of economic instruments in setting incentives for a more efficient management of water resources systems.

Hedged Monte-Carlo: low variance derivative pricing with objective probabilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Potters, Marc; Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe; Sestovic, Dragan

2001-01-01

We propose a new ‘hedged’ Monte-Carlo ( HMC) method to price financial derivatives, which allows to determine simultaneously the optimal hedge. The inclusion of the optimal hedging strategy allows one to reduce the financial risk associated with option trading, and for the very same reason reduces considerably the variance of our HMC scheme as compared to previous methods. The explicit accounting of the hedging cost naturally converts the objective probability into the ‘risk-neutral’ one. This allows a consistent use of purely historical time series to price derivatives and obtain their residual risk. The method can be used to price a large class of exotic options, including those with path dependent and early exercise features.

Quantifying risks with exact analytical solutions of derivative pricing distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Kun; Liu, Jing; Wang, Erkang; Wang, Jin

2017-04-01

Derivative (i.e. option) pricing is essential for modern financial instrumentations. Despite of the previous efforts, the exact analytical forms of the derivative pricing distributions are still challenging to obtain. In this study, we established a quantitative framework using path integrals to obtain the exact analytical solutions of the statistical distribution for bond and bond option pricing for the Vasicek model. We discuss the importance of statistical fluctuations away from the expected option pricing characterized by the distribution tail and their associations to value at risk (VaR). The framework established here is general and can be applied to other financial derivatives for quantifying the underlying statistical distributions.

Availability, Price, and Promotions for Cigarettes and Non-Cigarette Tobacco Products: A Comparison of United States Air Force Bases with nearby Tobacco Retailers

DTIC Science & Technology

2019-01-12

REPORT TYPE 3. DATES COVERED (From - To) 12/01/2019 Journal 01112/2019 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Sa. CONTRACT NUMBER Availability , Price, and... AVAILABILITY STATEMENT Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited. 13. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES Nicotine & Tobacco Research 14. ABSTRACT...Newport Menthol and Marlboro Red cigarette packs were $0.87 and $0.80 lower on-base (pɘ.001) while the cheapest pack available was $0.54 lower on-base

42 CFR 447.510 - Requirements for manufacturers.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... discounts, or nominal prices for a period not to exceed 12 quarters from the quarter in which the data were... result of data pertaining to lagged price concessions. (c) Base date AMP report. (1) A manufacturer may... package sizes of each covered outpatient drug sold by the manufacturer during a month. It is calculated as...

The price elasticity of demand for heroin: matched longitudinal and experimental evidence#

PubMed Central

Olmstead, Todd A.; Alessi, Sheila M.; Kline, Brendan; Pacula, Rosalie Liccardo; Petry, Nancy M.

2015-01-01

This paper reports estimates of the price elasticity of demand for heroin based on a newly constructed dataset. The dataset has two matched components concerning the same sample of regular heroin users: longitudinal information about real-world heroin demand (actual price and actual quantity at daily intervals for each heroin user in the sample) and experimental information about laboratory heroin demand (elicited by presenting the same heroin users with scenarios in a laboratory setting). Two empirical strategies are used to estimate the price elasticity of demand for heroin. The first strategy exploits the idiosyncratic variation in the price experienced by a heroin user over time that occurs in markets for illegal drugs. The second strategy exploits the experimentally-induced variation in price experienced by a heroin user across experimental scenarios. Both empirical strategies result in the estimate that the conditional price elasticity of demand for heroin is approximately −0.80. PMID:25702687

Hospital competition, resource allocation and quality of care

PubMed Central

Mukamel, Dana B; Zwanziger, Jack; Bamezai, Anil

2002-01-01

Background A variety of approaches have been used to contain escalating hospital costs. One approach is intensifying price competition. The increase in price based competition, which changes the incentives hospitals face, coupled with the fact that consumers can more easily evaluate the quality of hotel services compared with the quality of clinical care, may lead hospitals to allocate more resources into hotel rather than clinical services. Methods To test this hypothesis we studied hospitals in California in 1982 and 1989, comparing resource allocations prior to and following selective contracting, a period during which the focus of competition changed from quality to price. We estimated the relationship between clinical outcomes, measured as risk-adjusted-mortality rates, and resources. Results In 1989, higher competition was associated with lower clinical expenditures levels compared with 1982. The trend was stronger for non-profit hospitals. Lower clinical resource use was associated with worse risk adjusted mortality outcomes. Conclusions This study raises concerns that cost reductions may be associated with increased mortality. PMID:12052258

Crude oil price forecasting based on hybridizing wavelet multiple linear regression model, particle swarm optimization techniques, and principal component analysis.

PubMed

Shabri, Ani; Samsudin, Ruhaidah

2014-01-01

Crude oil prices do play significant role in the global economy and are a key input into option pricing formulas, portfolio allocation, and risk measurement. In this paper, a hybrid model integrating wavelet and multiple linear regressions (MLR) is proposed for crude oil price forecasting. In this model, Mallat wavelet transform is first selected to decompose an original time series into several subseries with different scale. Then, the principal component analysis (PCA) is used in processing subseries data in MLR for crude oil price forecasting. The particle swarm optimization (PSO) is used to adopt the optimal parameters of the MLR model. To assess the effectiveness of this model, daily crude oil market, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), has been used as the case study. Time series prediction capability performance of the WMLR model is compared with the MLR, ARIMA, and GARCH models using various statistics measures. The experimental results show that the proposed model outperforms the individual models in forecasting of the crude oil prices series.

The pricing of credit default swaps under a generalized mixed fractional Brownian motion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Xinjiang; Chen, Wenting

2014-06-01

In this paper, we consider the pricing of the CDS (credit default swap) under a GMFBM (generalized mixed fractional Brownian motion) model. As the name suggests, the GMFBM model is indeed a generalization of all the FBM (fractional Brownian motion) models used in the literature, and is proved to be able to effectively capture the long-range dependence of the stock returns. To develop the pricing mechanics of the CDS, we firstly derive a sufficient condition for the market modeled under the GMFBM to be arbitrage free. Then under the risk-neutral assumption, the CDS is fairly priced by investigating the two legs of the cash flow involved. The price we obtained involves elementary functions only, and can be easily implemented for practical purpose. Finally, based on numerical experiments, we analyze quantitatively the impacts of different parameters on the prices of the CDS. Interestingly, in comparison with all the other FBM models documented in the literature, the results produced from the GMFBM model are in a better agreement with those calculated from the classical Black-Scholes model.

Crude Oil Price Forecasting Based on Hybridizing Wavelet Multiple Linear Regression Model, Particle Swarm Optimization Techniques, and Principal Component Analysis

PubMed Central

Shabri, Ani; Samsudin, Ruhaidah

2014-01-01

Crude oil prices do play significant role in the global economy and are a key input into option pricing formulas, portfolio allocation, and risk measurement. In this paper, a hybrid model integrating wavelet and multiple linear regressions (MLR) is proposed for crude oil price forecasting. In this model, Mallat wavelet transform is first selected to decompose an original time series into several subseries with different scale. Then, the principal component analysis (PCA) is used in processing subseries data in MLR for crude oil price forecasting. The particle swarm optimization (PSO) is used to adopt the optimal parameters of the MLR model. To assess the effectiveness of this model, daily crude oil market, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), has been used as the case study. Time series prediction capability performance of the WMLR model is compared with the MLR, ARIMA, and GARCH models using various statistics measures. The experimental results show that the proposed model outperforms the individual models in forecasting of the crude oil prices series. PMID:24895666

Strategic responses by hospitals to increased financial risk in the 1980s.

PubMed Central

Friedman, B.; Farley, D.

1995-01-01

OBJECTIVE. This research addresses the following types of responses by hospitals to increased financial risk: (a) increases in prices to privately insured patients (testing separately the effects of risk from the effects of "cost-shifting" that depends on level of Medicare payment in relation to case mix-adjusted cost); (b) changes in service mix offered and selectivity in acceptance of patients to reduce risk; and (c) efforts to reduce variation in resource use for those patients admitted. DATA SOURCES. The database includes a national panel of over 400 hospitals providing information from patient discharge abstracts, hospital financial reports, and county level information over the period 1980-1987. STUDY DESIGN. Econometric methods suitable to panel data are implemented, with tests for pooling, hospital-specific fixed effects, and possible problems of selection bias. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS. The prices paid by private insurers to a particular hospital were affected by the changes in risk imposed by Medicare prospective payment, the generosity of Medicare payment, state rate regulation, and ability of the hospital to bear risk. The risk-weighted measure of case mix did not respond to changes in payment policy, but other variables reflecting the management of care after admission to reduce risk did change in the predicted directions. CONCLUSIONS. Some of the findings in this article are relevant to current Medicare policies that involve risk-sharing, for instance, special allowances for "outlier" patients with unusually high cost, and for sole community hospitals. The first type of allowance appears successful in preserving access to care, while the second type is not well justified by the findings. State rate regulation programs were associated not only with lower hospital prices but also with less risk reduction behavior by hospitals. The design of regulation as a sort of risk-pooling arrangement across payers and hospitals may be attractive to hospitals and help explain their support for regulation is some states. PMID:7649752

12 CFR 1022.75 - Rules of construction.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... finance company only. The auto dealer has no duty to provide a risk-based pricing notice to the consumer. However, the bank or finance company may comply with this rule if the auto dealer has agreed to provide...

12 CFR 1022.75 - Rules of construction.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... finance company only. The auto dealer has no duty to provide a risk-based pricing notice to the consumer. However, the bank or finance company may comply with this rule if the auto dealer has agreed to provide...

12 CFR 1022.75 - Rules of construction.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... finance company only. The auto dealer has no duty to provide a risk-based pricing notice to the consumer. However, the bank or finance company may comply with this rule if the auto dealer has agreed to provide...

48 CFR 1828.370 - Fixed-price contract clauses.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 6 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 true Fixed-price contract... ADMINISTRATION GENERAL CONTRACTING REQUIREMENTS BONDS AND INSURANCE Insurance 1828.370 Fixed-price contract... Risk, in all negotiated fixed-price contracts for the development, production, modification...

Does the Price Multiplier Effect also Hold for Stocks?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maslov, Sergei; Roehner, Bertrand M.

The price multiplier effect provides precious insight into the behavior of investors during episodes of speculative trading. It tells us that the higher the price of an asset (within a set of similar assets), the more its price is likely to increase during the upgoing phase of a speculative price peak. In short, instead of being risk averse, as is often assumed, investors rather seem to be "risk prone". While this effect is known to hold for several sorts of assets, it has not yet been possible to test it for stocks because the price of one share has no intrinsic significance, which means that one cannot say that stock A is more expensive than stock B on the basis of its price. In this paper we show that the price-dividend ratio gives a good basis for assessing the price of stocks in an intrinsic way. When this alternative measure is used instead, it turns out that the price multiplier effect also holds for stocks, at least if one concentrates on samples of companies which are sufficiently homogeneous.

Global critical materials markets: An agent-based modeling approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Riddle, Matthew; Macal, Charles M.; Conzelmann, Guenter

As part of efforts to position the United States as a leader in clean energy technology production, the U. S. Department of Energy (DOE) issued two Critical Materials Strategy reports, which assessed 16 materials on the basis of their importance to clean energy development and their supply risk ( U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), 2010 and DOE, 2011). To understand the implications for clean energy of disruptions in supplies of critical materials, it is important to understand supply chain dynamics from mining to final product production. As a case study of critical material supply chains, we focus on the supplymore » of two rare earth metals, neodymium (Nd) and dysprosium (Dy), for permanent magnets used in wind turbines, electric vehicles and other applications. We introduce GCMat, a dynamic agent-based model that includes interacting agents at five supply chain stages consisting of mining, metal refining, magnet production, final product production and demand. Agents throughout the supply chain make pricing, production and inventory management decisions. Deposit developers choose which deposits to develop based on market conditions and detailed data on 57 rare earth deposits. Wind turbine and electric vehicle producers choose from a set of possible production technologies that require different amounts of rare earths. We ran the model under a baseline scenario and four alternative scenarios with different demand and production technology inputs. Model results from 2010 to 2013 fit well with historical data. Projections through 2025 show a number of possible future price, demand, and supply trajectories. For each scenario, we highlight reasons for turning points under market conditions, for differences between Nd and Dy markets, and for differences between scenarios. Because GCMat can model causal dynamics and provide fine-grain representation of agents and their decisions, it provides explanations for turning points under market conditions that are not otherwise available from other modeling approaches. Our baseline projections show very different behaviors for Nd and Dy prices. Nd prices continue to drop and remain low even at the end of our simulation period as new capacity comes online and leads to a market in which production capacity outpaces demand. Dy price movements, on the other hand, change directions several times with several key turning points related to inventory behaviors of particular agents in the supply chain and asymmetric supply and demand trends. Scenario analyses show the impact of stronger demand growth for rare earths, and in particular finds that Nd price impacts are significantly delayed as compared to Dy. This is explained by the substantial excess production capacity for Nd in the early simulation years that keeps prices down. Scenarios that explore the impact of reducing the Dy content of magnets show the intricate interdependencies of these two markets as price trends for both rare earths reverse directions – reducing the Dy content of magnets reduces Dy demand, which drives down Dy prices and translates into lower magnet prices. This in turn raises the demand for magnets and therefore the demand for Nd and eventually drives up the Nd price.« less

Lead-free hunting rifle ammunition: product availability, price, effectiveness, and role in global wildlife conservation.

PubMed

Thomas, Vernon George

2013-10-01

Proposals to end the use of lead hunting ammunition because of the established risks of lead exposure to wildlife and humans are impeded by concerns about the availability, price, and effectiveness of substitutes. The product availability and retail prices of different calibers of lead-free bullets and center-fire rifle ammunition were assessed for ammunition sold in the USA and Europe. Lead-free bullets are made in 35 calibers and 51 rifle cartridge designations. Thirty-seven companies distribute internationally ammunition made with lead-free bullets. There is no major difference in the retail price of equivalent lead-free and lead-core ammunition for most popular calibers. Lead-free ammunition has set bench-mark standards for accuracy, lethality, and safety. Given the demonstrated wide product availability, comparable prices, and the effectiveness of high-quality lead-free ammunition, it is possible to phase out the use of lead hunting ammunition world-wide, based on progressive policy and enforceable legislation.

[Toward a conditional price for medicine?].

PubMed

Baseilhac, E

2013-09-01

For the first time, and as an exceptional option, the 2012 LEEM-CEPS framework agreement introduces the notion of conditional prices in conventional practice. The contractualization of drug price according to changes in its value that could occur in "real world" enables the Payer and the Company to settle, in a predictable manner, the "bet" represented by first registration price setting. Its systematization is based on the ability to standardize the implementation and assessment of observational studies, whereas the analysis and sharing of the risk of value changes (depreciation, appreciation) are structuring elements of the contractualization. Ethical from both the payer's and patient's point of view, drug price conditionality on its value is impeded by compliance with legal and economic constraints for the company, that should be taken into account by legalising this latter's ability to influence it through observance or therapeutic education and by guaranteeing a sufficiently long period of revenues for the company. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Identifying Financially Sustainable Pricing Interventions to Promote Healthier Beverage Purchases in Small Neighborhood Stores

PubMed Central

Kumanyika, Shiriki; Gittelsohn, Joel; Adam, Atif; Wong, Michelle S.; Mui, Yeeli; Lee, Bruce Y.

2018-01-01

Introduction Residents of low-income communities often purchase sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) at small, neighborhood “corner” stores. Lowering water prices and increasing SSB prices are potentially complementary public health strategies to promote more healthful beverage purchasing patterns in these stores. Sustainability, however, depends on financial feasibility. Because in-store pricing experiments are complex and require retailers to take business risks, we used a simulation approach to identify profitable pricing combinations for corner stores. Methods The analytic approach was based on inventory models, which are suitable for modeling business operations. We used discrete-event simulation to build inventory models that use data representing beverage inventory, wholesale costs, changes in retail prices, and consumer demand for 2 corner stores in Baltimore, Maryland. Model outputs yielded ranges for water and SSB prices that increased water demand without loss of profit from combined water and SSB sales. Results A 20% SSB price increase allowed lowering water prices by up to 20% while maintaining profit and increased water demand by 9% and 14%, for stores selling SSBs in 12-oz cans and 16- to 20-oz bottles, respectively. Without changing water prices, profits could increase by 4% and 6%, respectively. Sensitivity analysis showed that stores with a higher volume of SSB sales could reduce water prices the most without loss of profit. Conclusion Various combinations of SSB and water prices could encourage water consumption while maintaining or increasing store owners’ profits. This model is a first step in designing and implementing profitable pricing strategies in collaboration with store owners. PMID:29369758

Identifying Financially Sustainable Pricing Interventions to Promote Healthier Beverage Purchases in Small Neighborhood Stores.

PubMed

Nau, Claudia; Kumanyika, Shiriki; Gittelsohn, Joel; Adam, Atif; Wong, Michelle S; Mui, Yeeli; Lee, Bruce Y

2018-01-25

Residents of low-income communities often purchase sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) at small, neighborhood "corner" stores. Lowering water prices and increasing SSB prices are potentially complementary public health strategies to promote more healthful beverage purchasing patterns in these stores. Sustainability, however, depends on financial feasibility. Because in-store pricing experiments are complex and require retailers to take business risks, we used a simulation approach to identify profitable pricing combinations for corner stores. The analytic approach was based on inventory models, which are suitable for modeling business operations. We used discrete-event simulation to build inventory models that use data representing beverage inventory, wholesale costs, changes in retail prices, and consumer demand for 2 corner stores in Baltimore, Maryland. Model outputs yielded ranges for water and SSB prices that increased water demand without loss of profit from combined water and SSB sales. A 20% SSB price increase allowed lowering water prices by up to 20% while maintaining profit and increased water demand by 9% and 14%, for stores selling SSBs in 12-oz cans and 16- to 20-oz bottles, respectively. Without changing water prices, profits could increase by 4% and 6%, respectively. Sensitivity analysis showed that stores with a higher volume of SSB sales could reduce water prices the most without loss of profit. Various combinations of SSB and water prices could encourage water consumption while maintaining or increasing store owners' profits. This model is a first step in designing and implementing profitable pricing strategies in collaboration with store owners.

Discrete choice experiment of smoking cessation behaviour in Japan

PubMed Central

Goto, Rei; Nishimura, Shuzo; Ida, Takanori

2007-01-01

Background In spite of gradual increases in tobacco price and the introduction of laws supporting various anti‐tobacco measures, the proportion of smokers in Japan's population is still higher than in other developed nations. Objective To understand what information and individual characteristics drive smokers to attempt to quit smoking. These determinants will help to realise effective tobacco control policy as a base for understanding of cessation behaviour. Method Discrete choice experiments on a total of 616 respondents registered at a consumer monitoring investigative company. Results The effect of price is greater on smokers with lower nicotine dependence. For smokers of moderate and low dependency, short term health risks and health risks caused by passive smoking have a strong impact, though the existence of penalties and long term health risks have little influence on smokers' decisions to quit. For highly dependent smokers, non‐price attributes have little impact. Furthermore, the effects of age, sex and knowledge are also not uniform in accounting for smoking cessation. Conclusion Determinants of smoking cessation vary among levels of nicotine dependency. Therefore, how and what information is provided needs to be carefully considered when counselling smokers to help them to quit. PMID:17897993

Higher food prices may threaten food security status among American low-income households with children.

PubMed

Zhang, Qi; Jones, Sonya; Ruhm, Christopher J; Andrews, Margaret

2013-10-01

Children in food-insecure households are more likely to experience poorer health function and worse academic achievement. To investigate the relation between economic environmental factors and food insecurity among children, we examined the relation between general and specific food prices (fast food, fruits and vegetables, beverages) and risk of low (LFS) and very low food security (VLFS) status among low-income American households with children. Using information for 27,900 child-year observations from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study-Kindergarten Class of 1998-1999 linked with food prices obtained from the Cost of Living Data of the Council for Community and Economic Research, formerly known as the American Chamber of Commerce Researchers' Association, fixed effects models were estimated within stratified income groups. Higher overall food prices were associated with increased risk of LFS and VLFS (coefficient = 0.617; P < 0.05). Higher fast food and fruit and vegetable prices also contributed to higher risk of food insecurity (coefficient = 0.632, P < 0.01 for fast food; coefficient = 0.879, P < 0.01 for fruits and vegetables). However, increasing beverage prices, including the prices of soft drinks, orange juice, and coffee, had a protective effect on food security status, even when controlling for general food prices. Thus, although food price changes were strongly related to food security status among low-income American households with children, the effects were not uniform across types of food. These relations should be accounted for when implementing policies that change specific food prices.

Availability and variation of publicly reported prescription drug prices.

PubMed

Kullgren, Jeffrey T; Segel, Joel E; Peterson, Timothy A; Fendrick, A Mark; Singh, Simone

2017-07-01

To examine how often retail prices for prescription drugs are available on state public reporting websites, the variability of these reported prices, and zip code characteristics associated with greater price variation. Searches of state government-operated websites in Michigan, Missouri, New York, and Pennsylvania for retail prices for Advair Diskus (250/50 fluticasone propionate/salmeterol), Lyrica (pregabalin 50 mg), Nasonex (mometasone 50 mcg nasal spray), Spiriva (tiotropium 18 mcg cp-handihaler), Zetia (ezetimibe 10 mg), atorvastatin 20 mg, and metoprolol 50 mg. Data were collected for a 25% random sample of 1330 zip codes. For zip codes with at least 1 pharmacy, we used χ2 tests to compare how often prices were reported. For zip codes with at least 2 reported prices, we used Kruskal-Wallis tests to compare the median difference between the highest and lowest prices and a generalized linear model to identify zip code characteristics associated with greater price variation. Price availability varied significantly (P <.001) across states and drugs, ranging from 52% for metoprolol in Michigan to 1% for atorvastatin in Michigan. Price variation also varied significantly (P <.001) across states and drugs, ranging from a median of $159 for atorvastatin in Pennsylvania to a median of $24 for Nasonex in Missouri. The mean price variation was $52 greater (P <.001) for densely populated zip codes and $60 greater (P <.001) for zip codes with mostly nonwhite residents. Publicly reported information on state prescription drug price websites is often deficient. When prices are reported, there can be significant variation in the prices of prescriptions, which could translate into substantial savings for consumers who pay out-of-pocket for prescription drugs.

A Prospective Cohort Study of Cigarette Prices and Smoking Cessation in Older Smokers.

PubMed

Stevens, Victoria L; Diver, W Ryan; Stoklosa, Michal; Flanders, W Dana; Westmaas, J Lee; Jemal, Ahmedin; Drope, Jeffrey M; Gapstur, Susan M; Jacobs, Eric J

2017-07-01

Background: Cigarette price increases effectively prevent smoking initiation and reduce cigarette consumption among young smokers. However, the impact of cigarette prices on smoking cessation among older smokers is less clear, particularly for those aged 65 years and older, a group that is at highest risk of smoking-related disease and will almost double in the United States between 2012 and 2050. Methods: Biennial questionnaires administered between 1997 and 2013 assessed smoking status for 9,446 Cancer Prevention Study-II Nutrition Cohort participants who were ≥50 years old and lived in Washington, DC, and 48 states. For each interval between biennial questionnaires, change in price per pack and average price level per pack were calculated. The separate associations between these price variables and smoking cessation during the same time interval were determined. Results: In multivariable-adjusted models, each $1.00 price increase was associated with a 9% higher rate of quitting [rate ratio (RR) = 1.09; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.04-1.14). Each $1.00 increase in average price was associated with a 6% higher rate of quitting (RR = 1.06; 95% CI, 1.02-1.10). The association with average price was strongest among smokers aged 65 years and older (RR = 1.07; 95% CI, 1.04-1.11) and, for price change, for smokers with no major prevalent disease (RR = 1.13; 95% CI, 1.07-1.19). Conclusions: These results suggest that increasing cigarette prices will promote quitting even among smokers aged 65 years and older. Impact: Increasing cigarette prices through higher taxes could reduce smoking rates among older adults and decrease risk of smoking-related cancers and diseases in this high-risk group. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 26(7); 1071-7. ©2017 AACR . ©2017 American Association for Cancer Research.

Linking mileage to auto accident risk and urban form.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-08-01

Pricing auto insurance on a per-mile basis provides a beneficial, cost-based incentive to : reduce vehicle miles traveled compared with traditional rating plans that charge annual : premiums with little or no consideration of miles driven. : The rese...

Theory of Financial Risk and Derivative Pricing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe; Potters, Marc

2009-01-01

Foreword; Preface; 1. Probability theory: basic notions; 2. Maximum and addition of random variables; 3. Continuous time limit, Ito calculus and path integrals; 4. Analysis of empirical data; 5. Financial products and financial markets; 6. Statistics of real prices: basic results; 7. Non-linear correlations and volatility fluctuations; 8. Skewness and price-volatility correlations; 9. Cross-correlations; 10. Risk measures; 11. Extreme correlations and variety; 12. Optimal portfolios; 13. Futures and options: fundamental concepts; 14. Options: hedging and residual risk; 15. Options: the role of drift and correlations; 16. Options: the Black and Scholes model; 17. Options: some more specific problems; 18. Options: minimum variance Monte-Carlo; 19. The yield curve; 20. Simple mechanisms for anomalous price statistics; Index of most important symbols; Index.

Theory of Financial Risk and Derivative Pricing - 2nd Edition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe; Potters, Marc

2003-12-01

Foreword; Preface; 1. Probability theory: basic notions; 2. Maximum and addition of random variables; 3. Continuous time limit, Ito calculus and path integrals; 4. Analysis of empirical data; 5. Financial products and financial markets; 6. Statistics of real prices: basic results; 7. Non-linear correlations and volatility fluctuations; 8. Skewness and price-volatility correlations; 9. Cross-correlations; 10. Risk measures; 11. Extreme correlations and variety; 12. Optimal portfolios; 13. Futures and options: fundamental concepts; 14. Options: hedging and residual risk; 15. Options: the role of drift and correlations; 16. Options: the Black and Scholes model; 17. Options: some more specific problems; 18. Options: minimum variance Monte-Carlo; 19. The yield curve; 20. Simple mechanisms for anomalous price statistics; Index of most important symbols; Index.

Impact of stock market structure on intertrade time and price dynamics.

PubMed

Ivanov, Plamen Ch; Yuen, Ainslie; Perakakis, Pandelis

2014-01-01

We analyse times between consecutive transactions for a diverse group of stocks registered on the NYSE and NASDAQ markets, and we relate the dynamical properties of the intertrade times with those of the corresponding price fluctuations. We report that market structure strongly impacts the scale-invariant temporal organisation in the transaction timing of stocks, which we have observed to have long-range power-law correlations. Specifically, we find that, compared to NYSE stocks, stocks registered on the NASDAQ exhibit significantly stronger correlations in their transaction timing on scales within a trading day. Further, we find that companies that transfer from the NASDAQ to the NYSE show a reduction in the correlation strength of transaction timing on scales within a trading day, indicating influences of market structure. We also report a persistent decrease in correlation strength of intertrade times with increasing average intertrade time and with corresponding decrease in companies' market capitalization-a trend which is less pronounced for NASDAQ stocks. Surprisingly, we observe that stronger power-law correlations in intertrade times are coupled with stronger power-law correlations in absolute price returns and higher price volatility, suggesting a strong link between the dynamical properties of intertrade times and the corresponding price fluctuations over a broad range of time scales. Comparing the NYSE and NASDAQ markets, we demonstrate that the stronger correlations we find in intertrade times for NASDAQ stocks are associated with stronger correlations in absolute price returns and with higher volatility, suggesting that market structure may affect price behavior through information contained in transaction timing. These findings do not support the hypothesis of universal scaling behavior in stock dynamics that is independent of company characteristics and stock market structure. Further, our results have implications for utilising transaction timing patterns in price prediction and risk management optimization on different stock markets.

Impact of Stock Market Structure on Intertrade Time and Price Dynamics

PubMed Central

Ivanov, Plamen Ch.; Yuen, Ainslie; Perakakis, Pandelis

2014-01-01

We analyse times between consecutive transactions for a diverse group of stocks registered on the NYSE and NASDAQ markets, and we relate the dynamical properties of the intertrade times with those of the corresponding price fluctuations. We report that market structure strongly impacts the scale-invariant temporal organisation in the transaction timing of stocks, which we have observed to have long-range power-law correlations. Specifically, we find that, compared to NYSE stocks, stocks registered on the NASDAQ exhibit significantly stronger correlations in their transaction timing on scales within a trading day. Further, we find that companies that transfer from the NASDAQ to the NYSE show a reduction in the correlation strength of transaction timing on scales within a trading day, indicating influences of market structure. We also report a persistent decrease in correlation strength of intertrade times with increasing average intertrade time and with corresponding decrease in companies' market capitalization–a trend which is less pronounced for NASDAQ stocks. Surprisingly, we observe that stronger power-law correlations in intertrade times are coupled with stronger power-law correlations in absolute price returns and higher price volatility, suggesting a strong link between the dynamical properties of intertrade times and the corresponding price fluctuations over a broad range of time scales. Comparing the NYSE and NASDAQ markets, we demonstrate that the stronger correlations we find in intertrade times for NASDAQ stocks are associated with stronger correlations in absolute price returns and with higher volatility, suggesting that market structure may affect price behavior through information contained in transaction timing. These findings do not support the hypothesis of universal scaling behavior in stock dynamics that is independent of company characteristics and stock market structure. Further, our results have implications for utilising transaction timing patterns in price prediction and risk management optimization on different stock markets. PMID:24699376

Wildfire risk and housing prices: a case study from colorado springs

Treesearch

Geoffrey H. Donovan; Patricia A. Champ; David T. Butry

2007-01-01

In 2000, concerned about the risks of wildfires to local homes, the Colorado Springs Fire Department rated the wildfire risk of 35,000 housing parcels within the wildland-urban interface and made its findings available online. We examine the effectiveness of this rating project by comparing the relationship between home price and wildfire risk before and after the...

Willingness to pay for a 4% chlorhexidine (7.1% chlorhexidine digluconate) product for umbilical cord care in rural Bangladesh: a contingency valuation study

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Recent trials in Bangladesh, Nepal, and Pakistan have shown that chlorhexidine is an effective antiseptic for umbilical cord care compared to existing community-based cord care practices. Because of the aggregate reduction in neonatal mortality in these trials, interest is high in introducing a 7.1% chlorhexidine digluconate liquid or gel that delivers 4% chlorhexidine for umbilical cord care in Bangladesh and elsewhere. Methods In 2010, we conducted a household survey applying a contingent valuation method with 1717 eligible couples (pregnant women or women with a first child younger than 6 months old, and their husbands) in the rural subdistricts of Abhoynagar and Mirsarai in Bangladesh to assess their willingness to pay for three types of umbilical cord care products at different price points. Each respondent was asked about willingness to pay prefixed prices for any one of three 7.1% chlorhexidine digluconate products: 1) a single-dose liquid, 2) a multi-dose liquid, or 3) a gel formulation. Each also reported the maximum price they were independently willing to pay for their selected product. We compared participant willingness-to-pay responses to the prefixed prices with their independently reported maximum prices for each type of the product separately. The comparison identified to what extent the respondents’ positive responses to the prefixed prices matched their independently reported maximum prices. Results This cross matching revealed that willingness to pay the prefixed prices was 41% for the single-dose liquid, 33% for the multi-dose liquid, and 31% for the gel formulation. Although the majority of the respondents were unwilling to pay the prefixed prices, all were willing to pay some amount and reported they could borrow money if necessary. Subsequent analysis of responses to the multi-dose liquid showed borrowing money would not be required if the unit price was Bangladeshi taka 15–25. Conclusions A unit price of Bangladeshi taka 15–25 (US$0.21–0.35) for multi-dose 7.1% chlorhexidine digluconate liquid would be affordable to the primary target population in Bangladesh. Although a large market demand could be generated if the product were available at this price point, subsidization may be required to achieve optimal coverage, especially among poorer families. PMID:24139384

Willingness to pay for a 4% chlorhexidine (7.1% chlorhexidine digluconate) product for umbilical cord care in rural Bangladesh: a contingency valuation study.

PubMed

Coffey, Patricia S; Metzler, Mutsumi; Islam, Ziaul; Koehlmoos, Tracey P

2013-10-18

Recent trials in Bangladesh, Nepal, and Pakistan have shown that chlorhexidine is an effective antiseptic for umbilical cord care compared to existing community-based cord care practices. Because of the aggregate reduction in neonatal mortality in these trials, interest is high in introducing a 7.1% chlorhexidine digluconate liquid or gel that delivers 4% chlorhexidine for umbilical cord care in Bangladesh and elsewhere. In 2010, we conducted a household survey applying a contingent valuation method with 1717 eligible couples (pregnant women or women with a first child younger than 6 months old, and their husbands) in the rural subdistricts of Abhoynagar and Mirsarai in Bangladesh to assess their willingness to pay for three types of umbilical cord care products at different price points. Each respondent was asked about willingness to pay prefixed prices for any one of three 7.1% chlorhexidine digluconate products: 1) a single-dose liquid, 2) a multi-dose liquid, or 3) a gel formulation. Each also reported the maximum price they were independently willing to pay for their selected product. We compared participant willingness-to-pay responses to the prefixed prices with their independently reported maximum prices for each type of the product separately. The comparison identified to what extent the respondents' positive responses to the prefixed prices matched their independently reported maximum prices. This cross matching revealed that willingness to pay the prefixed prices was 41% for the single-dose liquid, 33% for the multi-dose liquid, and 31% for the gel formulation. Although the majority of the respondents were unwilling to pay the prefixed prices, all were willing to pay some amount and reported they could borrow money if necessary. Subsequent analysis of responses to the multi-dose liquid showed borrowing money would not be required if the unit price was Bangladeshi taka 15-25. A unit price of Bangladeshi taka 15-25 (US$0.21-0.35) for multi-dose 7.1% chlorhexidine digluconate liquid would be affordable to the primary target population in Bangladesh. Although a large market demand could be generated if the product were available at this price point, subsidization may be required to achieve optimal coverage, especially among poorer families.

Study on Stochastic Optimal Electric Power Procurement Strategies with Uncertain Market Prices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sakchai, Siripatanakulkhajorn; Saisho, Yuichi; Fujii, Yasumasa; Yamaji, Kenji

The player in deregulated electricity markets can be categorized into three groups of GENCO (Generator Companies), TRNASCO (Transmission Companies), DISCO (Distribution Companies). This research focuses on the role of Distribution Companies, which purchase electricity from market at randomly fluctuating prices, and provide it to their customers at given fixed prices. Therefore Distribution companies have to take the risk stemming from price fluctuation of electricity instead of the customers. This entails the necessity to develop a certain method to make an optimal strategy for electricity procurement. In such a circumstance, this research has the purpose for proposing the mathematical method based on stochastic dynamic programming to evaluate the value of a long-term bilateral contract of electricity trade, and also a project of combination of the bilateral contract and power generation with their own generators for procuring electric power in deregulated market.

Base-Case 1% Yield Increase (BC1), All Energy Crops scenario of the 2016 Billion Ton Report

DOE Data Explorer

Davis, Maggie R. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000181319328); Hellwinkel, Chad [University of Tennessee] (ORCID:0000000173085058); Eaton, Laurence [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000312709626); Langholtz, Matthew H. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000281537154); Turhollow, Anthony [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000228159350); Brandt, Craig [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000214707379); Myers, Aaron (ORCID:0000000320373827)

2016-07-13

Scientific reason for data generation: to serve as the base-case scenario for the BT16 volume 1 agricultural scenarios to compare these projections of potential biomass supplies against a reference case (agricultural baseline 10.11578/1337885). The simulation runs from 2015 through 2040; a starting year of 2014 is used but not reported. How each parameter was produced (methods), format, and relationship to other data in the data set: This exogenous price simulations (also referred to as “specified-price” simulations) introduces a farmgate price, and POLYSYS solves for biomass supplies that may be brought to market in response to these prices. In specified-price scenarios, a specified farmgate price is offered constantly in all counties over all years of the simulation. This simulation begins in 2015 with an offered farmgate price for primary crop residues only between 2015 and 2018 and long-term contracts for dedicated crops beginning in 2019. Expected mature energy crop yield grows at a compounding rate of 1% beginning in 2016. The yield growth assumptions are fixed after crops are planted such that yield gains do not apply to crops already planted, but new plantings do take advantage of the gains in expected yield growth. Instruments used: Policy Analysis System –POLYSYS (version POLYS2015_V10_alt_JAN22B), an agricultural policy modeling system of U.S. agriculture (crops and livestock), supplied by the University of Tennessee Institute of Agriculture, Agricultural Policy Analysis Center.

Selection of the open pit mining cut-off grade strategy under price uncertainty using a risk based multi-criteria ranking system / Wybór strategii określania warunku opłacalności wydobycia w kopalniach odkrywkowych w warunkach niepewności cen w oparciu o wielokryterialny system rankingowy z uwzględnieniem czynników ryzyka

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azimi, Yousue; Osanloo, Montza; Esfahanipour, Akbar

2012-12-01

Cut-off Grade Strategy (COGS) is a concept that directly influences the financial, technical, economic, environmental, and legal issues in relation to exploitation of a mineral resource. A decision making system is proposed to select the best technically feasible COGS under price uncertainty. In the proposed system both the conventional discounted cash flow and modern simulation based real option valuations are used to evaluate the alternative strategies. Then the conventional expected value criterion and a multiple criteria ranking system were used to rank the strategies based on the two valuation methods. In the multiple criteria ranking system besides the expected value other stochastic orders expressing abilities of strategies in producing extra profits, minimizing losses and achieving the predefined goals of the exploitation strategy are considered. Finally, the best strategy is selected based on the overall average rank of strategies through all ranking systems. The proposed system was examined using the data of Sungun Copper Mine. To assess the merits of the alternatives better, ranking process was done at both high (prevailing economic condition) and low price conditions. Ranking results revealed that at different price conditions and valuation methods, different results would be obtained. It is concluded that these differences are due to the different behavior of the embedded option to close the mine early, which is more likely to be exercised under low price condition rather than high price condition. The proposed system would enhance the quality of decision making process by providing a more informative and certain platform for project evaluation.

U.S. forest products annual market review and prospects, 2002–2006

Treesearch

James L. Howard

2006-01-01

This report provides general and statistical information on forests products markets in terms of production, trade, consumption, and prices. The current state of the U.S. economy is described. Market developments are described for sawn softwood, sawn hardwood, softwood log trade, wood- based panels, paper and paperboard, fuelwood, and forest product prices. Policy...

U.S. forest products annual market review and prospects, 2001–2005.

Treesearch

James L. Howard

2005-01-01

This report provides general and statistical information on forest products markets in terms of production, trade, consumption, and prices. The current state of the United States economy is described. Market developments are described for sawn softwood, sawn hardwood, softwood log trade, wood-based panels, paper and paperboard, fuelwood, and forest products prices....

U.S. forest products annual market review and prospects, 2004–2008

Treesearch

James L. Howard; Rebecca Westby

2007-01-01

This report provides general and statistical information on forest products markets in terms of production, trade, consumption, and prices. The current state of the U.S. economy is described. Market developments are described for sawn softwood, sawn hardwood, softwood log trade, wood-based panels, paper and paperboard, fuelwood, and forest product prices. Policy...

U.S. Forest products annual market review and prospects, 1999–2002

Treesearch

James L. Howard

2001-01-01

This report provides general and statistical information on forests products markets in terms of production, trade, consumption, and prices. The current state of the United States economy is described. Market developments are described for sawn softwood, sawn hardwood, softwood log trade, wood-based panels, paper and paperboard, fuelwood, and forest product prices....

U.S. Forest products annual market review and prospects, 2000-2003

Treesearch

James L. Howard

2002-01-01

This report provides general and statistical information on forests products markets in terms of production, trade, con-sumption, and prices. The current state of the United States economy is described. Market developments are described for sawn softwood, sawn hardwood, softwood log trade, wood-based panels, paper and paperboard, fuelwood, and forest product prices....

Funding issues for Victorian hospitals: the risk-adjusted vision beyond casemix funding.

PubMed

Antioch, K; Walsh, M

2000-01-01

This paper discusses casemix funding issues in Victoria impacting on teaching hospitals. For casemix payments to be acceptable, the average price and cost weights must be set at an appropriate standard. The average price is based on a normative, policy basis rather than benchmarking. The 'averaging principle' inherent in cost weights has resulted in some AN-DRG weights being too low for teaching hospitals that are key State-wide providers of high complexity services such as neurosurgery and trauma. Casemix data have been analysed using international risk adjustment methodologies to successfully negotiate with the Victorian State Government for specified grants for several high complexity AN-DRGs. A risk-adjusted capitation funding model has also been developed for cystic fibrosis patients treated by The Alfred, called an Australian Health Maintenance Organisation (AHMO). This will facilitate the development of similar models by both the Victorian and Federal governments.

Drug Policy in the Czech Republic.

PubMed

Skoupá, Jana

2017-09-01

The legal background of the current pharmaceutical pricing and reimbursement (P&R) setting in the Czech Republic is based on Act 48/1997. Since 2008, the P&R process has been coordinated by the State Institute for Drug Control, which is the main stakeholder in the decision-making process; marketing authorization holders and insurance funds (IFs) also participate. To present a general overview of the current Czech health care system and its P&R principles. The study used publicly available sources concerning health care, mainly acts related to public health care and public health care insurance, public notices related to P&R setting, and statistical data. Regulation covers P&R. The official price represents the highest exfactory price, which cannot be exceeded. It is calculated as the mean of the three lowest prices in the European Union reference basket. Reimbursement is based on the lowest price per daily dose across the whole European Union. For reimbursement, products can be clustered into jumbo groups (mutually interchangeable), stated by law. In each group, reimbursement is set at the lowest price of any substance within the group. For highly innovative drugs a temporary reimbursement can be granted for a period of 3 years. During the administrative proceeding, efficacy, safety, cost-effectiveness, and budget impact are assessed. The cost-effectiveness principles are aligned with the guidelines of the National Institute for Health and Clinical Care Excellence, preferring cost-utility analyses. The willingness-to-pay threshold has been implicitly set at 3 times the gross domestic product per capita. Products exceeding this threshold are subject to further risk-sharing negotiations. Budget impact is becoming increasingly important mainly for IFs. The IFs have recently introduced their own methodology, which allows only products with a budget impact in the range of CZK16 to CZK48 million (CZK = Czech koruna; ∼€600,000 to €1.8 million) to enter the system. Products exceeding this budget impact have to negotiate risk-sharing schemes, mainly further discounts and/or budget caps. The Czech pricing and reimbursement system is rather complex, taking into account clinical evidence, cost-effectiveness and budget impact. The strict regulations are a result of financial scarcity. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Empirical evaluation of the market price of risk using the CIR model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernaschi, M.; Torosantucci, L.; Uboldi, A.

2007-03-01

We describe a simple but effective method for the estimation of the market price of risk. The basic idea is to compare the results obtained by following two different approaches in the application of the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) model. In the first case, we apply the non-linear least squares method to cross sectional data (i.e., all rates of a single day). In the second case, we consider the short rate obtained by means of the first procedure as a proxy of the real market short rate. Starting from this new proxy, we evaluate the parameters of the CIR model by means of martingale estimation techniques. The estimate of the market price of risk is provided by comparing results obtained with these two techniques, since this approach makes possible to isolate the market price of risk and evaluate, under the Local Expectations Hypothesis, the risk premium given by the market for different maturities. As a test case, we apply the method to data of the European Fixed Income Market.

Regional price differences and food consumption frequency among elementary school children.

PubMed

Sturm, R; Datar, A

2011-03-01

Food prices may affect diet and weight gain among youth and lead to geographic disparities in obesity. This paper examines the association between regional prices and consumption frequency of fruit/vegetables and snack items among elementary school children in the USA. Observational study using individual-level survey data of fifth-grade children (average age 11 years) and regional food prices based on store visits in 2004. Dependent variables are self-reported consumption frequency in fifth grade; primary explanatory variables are metropolitan area food prices relative to cost of living. Multivariate regression analysis. Price variation across metropolitan areas exists, and lower real prices for vegetables and fruits predict significantly higher intake frequency. Higher dairy prices predict lower frequency of milk consumption, while higher meat prices predict increased milk consumption. Similar price effects were not found for fast food or soft drink consumption. The geographic variation in food prices across the USA is sufficiently large to affect dietary patterns among youth for fruit, vegetables and milk. The price variation is either too small to affect children's consumption frequency of fast food or soft drinks, or the consumption of these foods is less price sensitive. Copyright © 2010 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Regional price differences and food consumption frequency among elementary school children

PubMed Central

Sturm, R.; Datar, A.

2010-01-01

SUMMARY Objective Food prices may affect diet and weight gain among youth and lead to geographic disparities in obesity. This paper examines the association between regional prices and consumption frequency of fruit/vegetables and snack items among elementary school children in the USA. Study design Observational study using individual-level survey data of fifth-grade children (average age 11 years) and regional food prices based on store visits in 2004. Methods Dependent variables are self-reported consumption frequency in fifth grade; primary explanatory variables are metropolitan area food prices relative to cost of living. Multivariate regression analysis. Results Price variation across metropolitan areas exists, and lower real prices for vegetables and fruits predict significantly higher intake frequency. Higher dairy prices predict lower frequency of milk consumption, while higher meat prices predict increased milk consumption. Similar price effects were not found for fast food or soft drink consumption. Discussion The geographic variation in food prices across the USA is sufficiently large to affect dietary patterns among youth for fruit, vegetables and milk. This suggests that either the price variation is too small to affect children’s consumption frequency of fast food or soft drinks, or that the consumption of these foods is less price sensitive. PMID:21315395

Neural Insensitivity to Upticks in Value is Associated with the Disposition Effect

PubMed Central

Brooks, Andrew M.; Capra, C. Monica; Berns, Gregory S.

2011-01-01

The disposition effect is a phenomenon in which investors hold onto losing assets longer than they hold onto gaining assets. In this study, we used functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to measure the response of valuation regions in the brain during the decision to keep or to sell an asset that followed a random walk in price. The most common explanation for the disposition effect is preference-based: namely, that people are risk-averse over gains and risk-seeking over losses. This explanation would predict correlations between individuals’ risk-preferences, the magnitude of their disposition effect, and activation in valuation structures of the brain. We did not observe these correlations. Nor did we find evidence for a realization utility explanation, which would predict differential responses in valuation regions during the decision to sell versus keep an asset that correlated with the magnitude of the disposition effect. Instead, we found an attenuated ventral striatum response to upticks in value below the purchase price in some individuals with a large disposition effect. Given the role of the striatum in signaling prediction error, the blunted striatal response is consistent with the expectation that an asset will rise when it is below the purchase price, thus spurring loss-holding behavior. This suggests that for some individuals, the disposition effect is likely driven by a belief that the asset will eventually return to the purchase price, also known as mean reversion. PMID:22079448

Profile and effects of consumer involvement in fresh meat.

PubMed

Verbeke, Wim; Vackier, Isabelle

2004-05-01

This study investigates the profile and effects of consumer involvement in fresh meat as a product category based on cross-sectional data collected in Belgium. Analyses confirm that involvement in meat is a multidimensional construct including four facets: pleasure value, symbolic value, risk importance and risk probability. Four involvement-based meat consumer segments are identified: straightforward, cautious, indifferent, and concerned. Socio-demographic differences between the segments relate to gender, age and presence of children. The segments differ in terms of extensiveness of the decision-making process, impact and trust in information sources, levels of concern, price consciousness, claimed meat consumption, consumption intention, and preferred place of purchase. The two segments with a strong perception of meat risks constitute two-thirds of the market. They can be typified as cautious meat lovers versus concerned meat consumers. Efforts aiming at consumer reassurance through quality improvement, traceability, labelling or communication may gain effectiveness when targeted specifically to these two segments. Whereas straightforward meat lovers focus mainly on taste as the decisive criterion, indifferent consumers are strongly price oriented.

Value-based formulas for purchasing. PEHP's designated service provider program: value-based purchasing through global fees.

PubMed

Emery, D W

1997-01-01

In many circles, managed care and capitation have become synonymous; unfortunately, the assumptions informing capitation are based on a flawed unidimensional model of risk. PEHP of Utah has rejected the unidimensional model and has therefore embraced a multidimensional model of risk that suggests that global fees are the optimal purchasing modality. A globally priced episode of care forms a natural unit of analysis that enhances purchasing clarity, allows providers to more efficiently focus on the Marginal Rate of Technical Substitution, and conforms to the multidimensional reality of risk. Most importantly, global fees simultaneously maximize patient choice and provider cost consciousness.

Development of risk management strategies for state DOTs to effectively deal with volatile prices of transportation construction materials.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-06-01

Volatility in price of critical materials used in transportation projects, such as asphalt cement, leads to : considerable uncertainty about project cost. This uncertainty may lead to price speculation and inflated : bid prices submitted by highway c...

Tracking the Sun IX: The Installed Price of Residential and Non-Residential Photovoltaic Systems in the United States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Barbose, Galen; Darghouth, Naïm; Millstein, Dev

Now in its ninth edition, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL)’s Tracking the Sun report series is dedicated to summarizing trends in the installed price of grid-connected solar photovoltaic (PV) systems in the United States. The present report focuses on residential and non-residential systems installed through year-end 2015, with preliminary trends for the first half of 2016. An accompanying LBNL report, Utility-Scale Solar, addresses trends in the utility-scale sector. This year’s report incorporates a number of important changes and enhancements from prior editions. Among those changes, LBNL has made available a public data file containing all non-confidential project-level data underlying themore » analysis in this report. Installed pricing trends presented within this report derive primarily from project-level data reported to state agencies and utilities that administer PV incentive programs, solar renewable energy credit (SREC) registration systems, or interconnection processes. Refer to the text box to the right for several key notes about these data. In total, data were collected and cleaned for more than 820,000 individual PV systems, representing 85% of U.S. residential and non-residential PV systems installed cumulatively through 2015 and 82% of systems installed in 2015. The analysis in this report is based on a subset of this sample, consisting of roughly 450,000 systems with available installed price data.« less

12 CFR 932.5 - Market risk capital requirement.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... 932.5 Banks and Banking FEDERAL HOUSING FINANCE BOARD FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANK RISK MANAGEMENT AND..., commodity prices, and equity prices that could occur during periods of market stress, where the market value... options, to a comparable degree of stress for such factors as will be required for an internal market risk...

12 CFR 932.5 - Market risk capital requirement.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... 932.5 Banks and Banking FEDERAL HOUSING FINANCE BOARD FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANK RISK MANAGEMENT AND..., commodity prices, and equity prices that could occur during periods of market stress, where the market value... options, to a comparable degree of stress for such factors as will be required for an internal market risk...

12 CFR 932.5 - Market risk capital requirement.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... 932.5 Banks and Banking FEDERAL HOUSING FINANCE BOARD FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANK RISK MANAGEMENT AND..., commodity prices, and equity prices that could occur during periods of market stress, where the market value... options, to a comparable degree of stress for such factors as will be required for an internal market risk...

12 CFR 932.5 - Market risk capital requirement.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... 932.5 Banks and Banking FEDERAL HOUSING FINANCE BOARD FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANK RISK MANAGEMENT AND..., commodity prices, and equity prices that could occur during periods of market stress, where the market value... options, to a comparable degree of stress for such factors as will be required for an internal market risk...

Managing commodity risks in highway contracts : quantifying premiums, accounting for correlations among risk factors, and designing optimal price-adjustment contracts.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-09-01

It is a well-known fact that macro-economic conditions, such as prices of commodities (e.g. oil, : cement and steel) affect the cost of construction projects. In a volatile market environment, highway : agencies often pass such risk to contractors us...

78 FR 32865 - Procedures To Establish Appropriate Minimum Block Sizes for Large Notional Off-Facility Swaps and...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-05-31

... Financial Integrity of Markets c. Price Discovery d. Sound Risk Management Practices e. Other Public... Discovery d. Sound Risk Management Practices e. Other Public Interest Considerations E. Costs and Benefits..., Competitiveness and Financial Integrity c. Price Discovery d. Sound Risk Management Practices e. Other Public...

Stackelberg Game of Buyback Policy in Supply Chain with a Risk-Averse Retailer and a Risk-Averse Supplier Based on CVaR

PubMed Central

Zhou, Yanju; Chen, Qian; Chen, Xiaohong; Wang, Zongrun

2014-01-01

This paper considers a decentralized supply chain in which a single supplier sells a perishable product to a single retailer facing uncertain demand. We assume that the supplier and the retailer are both risk averse and utilize Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR), a risk measure method which is popularized in financial risk management, to estimate their risk attitude. We establish a buyback policy model based on Stackelberg game theory under considering supply chain members' risk preference and get the expressions of the supplier's optimal repurchase price and the retailer's optimal order quantity which are compared with those under risk neutral case. Finally, a numerical example is applied to simulate that model and prove related conclusions. PMID:25247605

Stackelberg game of buyback policy in supply chain with a risk-averse retailer and a risk-averse supplier based on CVaR.

PubMed

Zhou, Yanju; Chen, Qian; Chen, Xiaohong; Wang, Zongrun

2014-01-01

This paper considers a decentralized supply chain in which a single supplier sells a perishable product to a single retailer facing uncertain demand. We assume that the supplier and the retailer are both risk averse and utilize Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR), a risk measure method which is popularized in financial risk management, to estimate their risk attitude. We establish a buyback policy model based on Stackelberg game theory under considering supply chain members' risk preference and get the expressions of the supplier's optimal repurchase price and the retailer's optimal order quantity which are compared with those under risk neutral case. Finally, a numerical example is applied to simulate that model and prove related conclusions.

Cannabis policies and user practices: market separation, price, potency, and accessibility in Amsterdam and San Francisco.

PubMed

Reinarman, Craig

2009-01-01

This paper explores user perceptions and practices in contrasting legal-policy milieux-Amsterdam (de facto decriminalization) and San Francisco (de jure criminalization) on four policy issues: sources of cannabis and separation of markets for it and other drugs; user perceptions of effects of price on consumption; effects of potency on consumption; and perceived risk of arrest and accessibility of cannabis. Questions on these issues were added to surveys on career use patterns amongst representative samples of experienced cannabis users using comparable methods. Most San Francisco respondents obtained cannabis through friends who knew dealers, whereas most Amsterdam respondents obtained it from regulated shops. Only one in seven Amsterdam respondents but half the San Francisco respondents could obtain other drugs from their cannabis sources. Majorities under both systems had never found cannabis "too expensive." Amsterdam respondents preferred milder cannabis whilst San Francisco respondents preferred stronger; majorities in both cities reported self-titrating with potent cannabis. Risk and fear of arrest were higher in San Francisco, but most in both cities perceived arrest as unlikely. Estimated search times were somewhat longer in San Francisco, but a majority reported being able to access it within half a day. There is substantial separation of markets in the Dutch system. Policies designed to increase cannabis prices appear unlikely to impact consumption. Decriminalization was associated with a preference for milder cannabis, but under both policy regimes most respondents self-titrated when using more potent strains. Criminalization was associated with somewhat higher risk and fear of arrest and somewhat longer search times, but these did not appear to significantly impede access for most respondents.

The economic feasibility of price discounts to improve diet in Australian Aboriginal remote communities.

PubMed

Magnus, Anne; Moodie, Marj L; Ferguson, Megan; Cobiac, Linda J; Liberato, Selma C; Brimblecombe, Julie

2016-04-01

To estimate the cost-effectiveness of fiscal measures applied in remote community food stores for Aboriginal Australians. Six price discount strategies on fruit, vegetables, diet drinks and water were modelled. Baseline diet was measured as 12 months' actual food sales data in three remote Aboriginal communities. Discount-induced changes in food purchases were based on published price elasticity data while the weight of the daily diet was assumed constant. Dietary change was converted to change in sodium and energy intake, and body mass index (BMI) over a 12-month period. Improved lifetime health outcomes, modelled for the remote population of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders, were converted to disability adjusted life years (DALYs) saved using a proportional multistate lifetable model populated with diet-related disease risks and Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander rates of disease. While dietary change was small, five of the six price discount strategies were estimated as cost-effective, below a $50,000/DALY threshold. Stakeholders are committed to finding ways to reduce important inequalities in health status between Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders and non-Indigenous Australians. Price discounts offer potential to improve Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander health. Verification of these results by trial-based research coupled with consideration of factors important to all stakeholders is needed. © 2015 The Authors.

14 CFR 1274.209 - Evaluation and selection.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... and educational institutions, including historically black colleges and universities and minority... among U.S. firms, identification of potential markets, appropriateness of business risks. (f) Proposal... business base projections, the market for proposed products, and/or the impact of anticipated product price...

14 CFR 1274.209 - Evaluation and selection.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... and educational institutions, including historically black colleges and universities and minority... among U.S. firms, identification of potential markets, appropriateness of business risks. (f) Proposal... business base projections, the market for proposed products, and/or the impact of anticipated product price...

14 CFR 1274.209 - Evaluation and selection.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... and educational institutions, including historically black colleges and universities and minority... among U.S. firms, identification of potential markets, appropriateness of business risks. (f) Proposal... business base projections, the market for proposed products, and/or the impact of anticipated product price...

14 CFR § 1274.209 - Evaluation and selection.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... and educational institutions, including historically black colleges and universities and minority... among U.S. firms, identification of potential markets, appropriateness of business risks. (f) Proposal... business base projections, the market for proposed products, and/or the impact of anticipated product price...

14 CFR 1274.209 - Evaluation and selection.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... and educational institutions, including historically black colleges and universities and minority... among U.S. firms, identification of potential markets, appropriateness of business risks. (f) Proposal... business base projections, the market for proposed products, and/or the impact of anticipated product price...

Risk neutral second best toll pricing.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-08-01

We propose a risk-neutral second best toll pricing scheme to account for the possible no uniqueness : of user equilibrium solutions. The scheme is designed to optimize for the expected objective value : as the UE solution varies within the solution s...

Fairness and dynamic pricing: comments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hogan, William W.

2010-07-15

In ''The Ethics of Dynamic Pricing,'' Ahmad Faruqui lays out a case for improved efficiency in using dynamic prices for retail electricity tariffs and addresses various issues about the distributional effects of alternative pricing mechanisms. The principal contrast is between flat or nearly constant energy prices and time-varying prices that reflect more closely the marginal costs of energy and capacity. The related issues of fairness criteria, contracts, risk allocation, cost allocation, means testing, real-time pricing, and ethical policies of electricity market design also must be considered. (author)

On CAPM and Black-Scholes differing risk-return strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCauley, Joseph L.; Gunaratne, Gemunu H.

2003-11-01

In their path-finding 1973 paper, Black and Scholes presented two separate derivations of their famous option pricing partial differential equation. The second derivation was from the standpoint that was Black's original motivation, namely, the capital asset pricing model (CAPM). We show here, in contrast, that the option valuation is not uniquely determined; in particular, strategies based on the delta-hedge and CAPM provide different valuations of an option although both hedges are instantaneouly riskfree. Second, we show explicitly that CAPM is not, as economists claim, an equilibrium theory.

European option pricing under the Student's t noise with jumps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xiao-Tian; Li, Zhe; Zhuang, Le

2017-03-01

In this paper we present a new approach to price European options under the Student's t noise with jumps. Through the conditional delta hedging strategy and the minimal mean-square-error hedging, a closed-form solution of the European option value is obtained under the incomplete information case. In particular, we propose a Value-at-Risk-type procedure to estimate the volatility parameter σ such that the pricing error is in accord with the risk preferences of investors. In addition, the numerical results of us show that options are not priced in some cases in an incomplete information market.

Barriers to Household Risk Management: Evidence from India.

PubMed

Cole, Shawn; Giné, Xavier; Tobacman, Jeremy; Townsend, Robert; Topalova, Petia; Vickery, James

2013-01-01

Why do many households remain exposed to large exogenous sources of non-systematic income risk? We use a series of randomized field experiments in rural India to test the importance of price and non-price factors in the adoption of an innovative rainfall insurance product. Demand is significantly price sensitive, but widespread take-up would not be achieved even if the product offered a payout ratio comparable to U.S. insurance contracts. We present evidence suggesting that lack of trust, liquidity constraints and limited salience are significant non-price frictions that constrain demand. We suggest contract design improvements to mitigate these frictions.

[Mechanics and effects of European reference pricing for vaccines in Germany according to §130a Abs. 2 SGB V: an analysis using the example of influenza vaccines].

PubMed

Barth, J; Hammerschmidt, T; Vollmar, J; Bierbaum, M; Schöffski, O

2014-04-01

On 01 January 2011 the bill for the reorganisation of the pharmaceutical market became effective. Since that time there is a European reference pricing (ERP) system for vaccines in order to bring down the German vaccine prices to an assumed lower European level. This study describes the implementation, functioning and effect of this new system. For influenza vaccines the impact of ERP on the price level and spread of prices is analysed. The description of the mechanism is based on the law and corresponding regulations of the head association of sickness funds (GKV-SV). The analysis of vaccine prices is based on the data of the i:data report (status of 01 September 2011) of ifap Service Institute. The European reference price is calculated as the average price of the manufacturer-selling-prices of the corresponding vaccine in the 4 countries of the European Union whose gross national income comes closest to the German one and in which the vaccine is distributed. The relied prices are weighted by sales and purchasing power parities of the respective countries. This analysis suggests that in particular the practical implementation of the reference price system should be further improved and specified. The calculation of the reference prices should ensure price comparability. In addition, significant problems remain in the deduction of discounts, because no distinction is made in the documentation of vaccinating doctors, whether vaccination was performed as a compulsory or statutory benefit. The comparison of the manufacturer-selling-prices of individual influenza vaccines with the corresponding reference prices shows an enlargement of the existing price differences, which have evolved in a competitive environment, after the implementation of the reference pricing -system. There is still a need for improvement in implementing the reference pricing system. In the most competitive vaccine market of influenza vaccines, the ERP-system lowers the prices, but seems to distort the market prices. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Explaining EIA Crude Oil and Petroleum Product Price Data and Comparing with Other U.S. Government Data Sources, 2001 to 2010

EIA Publications

2012-01-01

This article describes the sampling frames and basic data collection methods for petroleum price data reported by Energy Information Administration (EIA) and other Government agencies. In addition, it compares and contrasts annual average prices reported by EIA with comparable prices from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) CPI (Consumer Price Indexes) for the retail prices of residential No. 2 distillate, on-highway diesel fuel and motor gasoline (all grades.) Further, it compares refiner wholesale/resale prices for No. 2 fuel oil, No. 2 diesel fuel, motor gasoline (all grades,) kerosene-type jet fuel and residual fuel oil reported by EIA with comparable prices from the BLS PPI (Producer Price Index.) A discussion of the various crude oil prices and spot/futures prices published by EIA and other Government agencies is also included in the article.

Crime and Security Risk: Background Information for Security Personnel

DTIC Science & Technology

1993-08-01

some cases, the individual may be unaware the action is illegal--for example, paying a maid or regular babysitter more than $600 per year without... news . Reports that crime is increasing are more newsworthy than surveys showing crime decreasing. Reports of increased violence in New York and...of the "purchase" price.- During the past several years, most states have developed a new and far more effective procedure for dealing with shoplifting

Study and Simulation on Dynamics of a Risk-Averse Supply Chain Pricing Model with Dual-Channel and Incomplete Information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Lijian; Ma, Junhai

Under the industrial background of dual-channel, volatility in demand of consumers, we use the theory of bifurcations and numerical simulation tools to investigate the dynamic pricing game in a dual-channel supply chain with risk-averse behavior and incomplete information. Due to volatility of demand of consumers, we consider all the players in the supply chain are risk-averse. We assume there exist Bertrand game and Manufacturers’ Stackelberg in the chain which are closer to reality. The main objective of the paper is to investigate the complex influence of the decision parameters such as wholesale price adjustment speed, risk preference and service value on stability of the risk-averse supply chain and average utilities of all the players. We lay emphasis on the influence of chaos on average utilities of all the players which did not appear in previous studies. The dynamic phenomena, such as the bifurcation, chaos and sensitivity to initial values are analyzed by 2D bifurcation phase portraits, Double Largest Lyapunov exponent, basins of attraction and so on. The study shows that the manufacturers should slow down their wholesale price adjustment speed to get more utilities, if the manufacturers are willing to take on more risk, they will get more profits, but they must keep their wholesale prices in a certain range in order to maintain the market stability.

Evaluation of Electric Power Procurement Strategies by Stochastic Dynamic Programming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saisho, Yuichi; Hayashi, Taketo; Fujii, Yasumasa; Yamaji, Kenji

In deregulated electricity markets, the role of a distribution company is to purchase electricity from the wholesale electricity market at randomly fluctuating prices and to provide it to its customers at a given fixed price. Therefore the company has to take risk stemming from the uncertainties of electricity prices and/or demand fluctuation instead of the customers. The way to avoid the risk is to make a bilateral contact with generating companies or install its own power generation facility. This entails the necessity to develop a certain method to make an optimal strategy for electric power procurement. In such a circumstance, this research has the purpose for proposing a mathematical method based on stochastic dynamic programming and additionally considering the characteristics of the start-up cost of electric power generation facility to evaluate strategies of combination of the bilateral contract and power auto-generation with its own facility for procuring electric power in deregulated electricity market. In the beginning we proposed two approaches to solve the stochastic dynamic programming, and they are a Monte Carlo simulation method and a finite difference method to derive the solution of a partial differential equation of the total procurement cost of electric power. Finally we discussed the influences of the price uncertainty on optimal strategies of power procurement.

7 CFR 1170.8 - Price reporting specifications.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 9 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Price reporting specifications. 1170.8 Section 1170.8... Agreements and Orders; Milk), DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE DAIRY PRODUCT MANDATORY REPORTING § 1170.8 Price...) Specifications for Cheddar Cheese Prices: (1) Variety: Cheddar cheese. (2) Style: 40-pound blocks or 500-pound...

7 CFR 1170.8 - Price reporting specifications.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 9 2014-01-01 2013-01-01 true Price reporting specifications. 1170.8 Section 1170.8... AGREEMENTS AND ORDERS; MILK), DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE DAIRY PRODUCT MANDATORY REPORTING § 1170.8 Price...) Specifications for Cheddar Cheese Prices: (1) Variety: Cheddar cheese. (2) Style: 40-pound blocks or 500-pound...

7 CFR 1170.8 - Price reporting specifications.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 9 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Price reporting specifications. 1170.8 Section 1170.8... AGREEMENTS AND ORDERS; MILK), DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE DAIRY PRODUCT MANDATORY REPORTING § 1170.8 Price...) Specifications for Cheddar Cheese Prices: (1) Variety: Cheddar cheese. (2) Style: 40-pound blocks or 500-pound...

On the Black-Scholes European Option Pricing Model Robustness and Generality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takada, Hellinton Hatsuo; de Oliveira Siqueira, José

2008-11-01

The common presentation of the widely known and accepted Black-Scholes European option pricing model explicitly imposes some restrictions such as the geometric Brownian motion assumption for the underlying stock price. In this paper, these usual restrictions are relaxed using maximum entropy principle of information theory, Pearson's distribution system, market frictionless and risk-neutrality theories to the calculation of a unique risk-neutral probability measure calibrated with market parameters.

'Net Equity: A Report on Income and Internet Access.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Moss, Mitchell; Mitra, Steve

1998-01-01

Examines the structure of the subscriber base formed under the current pricing policies of Internet providers and investigates how access to the Internet varies in communities with different demographic characteristics. Report is based on a survey from a national Internet service provided in 1997. (SLD)

The price elasticity of demand for heroin: Matched longitudinal and experimental evidence.

PubMed

Olmstead, Todd A; Alessi, Sheila M; Kline, Brendan; Pacula, Rosalie Liccardo; Petry, Nancy M

2015-05-01

This paper reports estimates of the price elasticity of demand for heroin based on a newly constructed dataset. The dataset has two matched components concerning the same sample of regular heroin users: longitudinal information about real-world heroin demand (actual price and actual quantity at daily intervals for each heroin user in the sample) and experimental information about laboratory heroin demand (elicited by presenting the same heroin users with scenarios in a laboratory setting). Two empirical strategies are used to estimate the price elasticity of demand for heroin. The first strategy exploits the idiosyncratic variation in the price experienced by a heroin user over time that occurs in markets for illegal drugs. The second strategy exploits the experimentally induced variation in price experienced by a heroin user across experimental scenarios. Both empirical strategies result in the estimate that the conditional price elasticity of demand for heroin is approximately -0.80. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Reviewing the economic efficiency of disaster risk management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mechler, Reinhard

2013-04-01

There is a lot of rhetoric suggesting that disaster risk management (DRM) pays, yet surprisingly little in the way of hard facts. Cost-benefit analysis (CBA) is one major tool that can provide quantitative information about the prioritization of disaster risk management (DRM) (and climate adaptation) based on economic principles. Yet, on a global scale, there has been surprisingly little robust evidence on the economic efficiency and benefits of risk management measures. This review shows that for the limited evidence reported the economic case for DRM across a range of hazards is strong and that the benefits of investing in DRM outweigh the costs of doing so, on average, by about four times the cost in terms of avoided and reduced losses. Most studies using a CBA approach focus on structural DRM and most information has been made available on physical flood prevention. There have been some limited studies on preparedness and risk financing. The global evidence base is limited and estimates appear not very solid, and overall, in line with the conclusion of the recent IPCC SREX report, there is limited evidence and medium agreement across the literature. Some of the factors behind the limited robustness are inherent to CBA more widely: these challenges comprise the inability to price intangibles, evaluating strategies rather than single projects, difficulties in assessing softer rather than infrastructure-related options, choices regarding a proper discount rate, lack of accounting for the distribution of benefits and costs and difficulties with assessing nonmarket values such as those related to health, the environment, or public goods. Although techniques exist to address some of these challenges, they are not very likely to easily go away. Other challenges associated specifically with DRM, such as the need and difficulty to undertake risk -based analysis can be overcome, and there have been manuals and reports providing a way forward. In an age of austerity, cost-benefit analysis continues to be an important tool for prioritising efficient DRM measures, yet with a shifting emphasis from infrastructure-based options (hard resilience) to preparedness and systemic interventions (soft resilience), other tools such as cost-effectiveness analysis, multi-criteria analysis and robust decision-making approaches deserve more attention.

Affordability: Family Incomes and Net Prices at Highly Selective Private Colleges and Universities. Discussion Paper No. 66r

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hill, Catharine; Winston, Gordon; Boyd, Stephanie

2004-01-01

College tuition is frequently compared, in press and politics, to the US median family income. That is, however, a highly misleading benchmark since schools with need-based financial aid rarely charge students from median income families the reported sticker price. Working from the financial aid records of individual students at twenty-eight…

78 FR 69041 - Non-Oriented Electrical Steel From the People's Republic of China, Germany, Japan, the Republic...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-11-18

... physical characteristics of the subject merchandise in order to report the relevant factors and costs of... companies.\\29\\ For Korea and Taiwan, Petitioner treated quoted prices as the ex-factory prices.\\30\\ \\28\\ See.... Accordingly, the NV of the product is appropriately based on factors of production (FOPs) valued in a...

Irrigation water demand: A meta-analysis of price elasticities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scheierling, Susanne M.; Loomis, John B.; Young, Robert A.

2006-01-01

Metaregression models are estimated to investigate sources of variation in empirical estimates of the price elasticity of irrigation water demand. Elasticity estimates are drawn from 24 studies reported in the United States since 1963, including mathematical programming, field experiments, and econometric studies. The mean price elasticity is 0.48. Long-run elasticities, those that are most useful for policy purposes, are likely larger than the mean estimate. Empirical results suggest that estimates may be more elastic if they are derived from mathematical programming or econometric studies and calculated at a higher irrigation water price. Less elastic estimates are found to be derived from models based on field experiments and in the presence of high-valued crops.

Does a property-specific environmental health risk create a “neighborhood” housing price stigma? Arsenic in private well water

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boyle, Kevin J.; Kuminoff, Nicolai V.; Zhang, Congwen; Devanney, Michael; Bell, Kathleen P.

2010-03-01

This paper examines the impact of arsenic contamination of groundwater on sale prices of residential properties and bare land transactions in two Maine towns, Buxton and Hollis, that rely on private wells to supply their drinking water. Prompted by tests of well water by the state of Maine, media attention focused on the communities in 1993 and 1994 when 14% of private wells were found to have arsenic concentrations exceeding the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency standard of 0.05 mg/L. Households could mitigate the serious health risks associated with arsenic ingestion by purchasing bottled water or by installing a reverse osmosis home treatment system. Our results indicate that the initial arsenic finding in 1993 led to significant, but temporary, 2 year decreases in property prices. This is a much shorter effect on prices than has been observed for Superfund sites, where prices can be depressed for a decade. These results suggest that a property-specific contamination incident that is treatable may not have a long-lasting effect on sale prices, but further research is needed to confirm if the dissipation of the price effect was actually due to the installation of in-home water treatment systems or due to the dissipation of perceived risk once the media coverage stopped.

75 FR 60843 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, Inc.; Notice of Filing...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-10-01

... Effectiveness of a Proposed Rule Change Relating to FINRA Trade Reporting Notice on Price Validation and Price... (``Notice'') that explains the price validation protocol of the FINRA trade reporting facilities and sets... trades by comparing the submitted price against price validation parameters established by FINRA...

Energy services in the information age: The convergence of energy, communications, and information technologies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Centolella, P.A.

1998-07-01

Most of the economic efficiency benefits of electric restructuring--consumer choice based on price and risk preferences, efficient capacity utilization, capacity expansion that reflects marketability, and innovative products--depend upon consumer access to information and opportunities to respond to time- and location-specific prices and customized products. Information and communications technologies from back-room data management centers to intelligent consumer gateways will play an essential role in marketing energy services in a retail access environment. This paper describes the role of information and communications technology in electric industry restructuring and retailing of energy services. It includes a survey of economic analyses on the likelymore » variability in competitive generation prices and consumer responses if such prices are effectively communicated. The paper describes the potential benefits and cost savings associated with flexible consumer responses to price variability. It identifies consumer loads and preferences. Finally, the paper describes the building blocks of information systems being developed to facilitate price-responsive energy management and provide a range of other energy services. Intelligent gateways, analytical tools for facility load prediction and optimizing energy management responses, and electronic commerce applications are discussed.« less

Hydro and geothermal electricity as an alternative for industrial petroleum consumption in Costa Rica

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mendis, M.; Park, W.; Sabadell, A.

This report assesses the potential for substitution of electricity for petroleum in the industrial/agro-industrial sector of Costa Rica. The study includes a preliminary estimate of the process energy needs in this sector, a survey of the principal petroleum consuming industries in Costa Rica, an assessment of the electrical technologies appropriate for substitution, and an analysis of the cost trade offs of alternative fuels and technologies. The report summarizes the total substitution potential both by technical feasibility and by cost effectiveness under varying fuel price scenarios and identifies major institutional constraints to the introduction of electric based technologies. Recommendations to themore » Government of Costa Rica are presented. The key to the success of a Costa Rican program for substitution of electricity for petroleum in industry rests in energy pricing policy. The report shows that if Costa Rica Bunker C prices are increased to compare equitably with Caribbean Bunker C prices, and increase at 3 percent per annum relative to a special industrial electricity rate structure, the entire substitution program, including both industrial and national electric investment, would be cost effective. The definition of these pricing structures and their potential impacts need to be assessed in depth.« less

Modeling of information flows in natural gas storage facility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ranjbari, Leyla; Bahar, Arifah; Aziz, Zainal Abdul

2013-09-01

The paper considers the natural-gas storage valuation based on the information-based pricing framework of Brody-Hughston-Macrina (BHM). As opposed to many studies which the associated filtration is considered pre-specified, this work tries to construct the filtration in terms of the information provided to the market. The value of the storage is given by the sum of the discounted expectations of the cash flows under risk-neutral measure, conditional to the constructed filtration with the Brownian bridge noise term. In order to model the flow of information about the cash flows, we assume the existence of a fixed pricing kernel with liquid, homogenous and incomplete market without arbitrage.

Data Mining of Web-Based Documents on Social Networking Sites That Included Suicide-Related Words Among Korean Adolescents.

PubMed

Song, Juyoung; Song, Tae Min; Seo, Dong-Chul; Jin, Jae Hyun

2016-12-01

To investigate online search activity of suicide-related words in South Korean adolescents through data mining of social media Web sites as the suicide rate in South Korea is one of the highest in the world. Out of more than 2.35 billion posts for 2 years from January 1, 2011 to December 31, 2012 on 163 social media Web sites in South Korea, 99,693 suicide-related documents were retrieved by Crawler and analyzed using text mining and opinion mining. These data were further combined with monthly employment rate, monthly rental prices index, monthly youth suicide rate, and monthly number of reported bully victims to fit multilevel models as well as structural equation models. The link from grade pressure to suicide risk showed the largest standardized path coefficient (beta = .357, p < .001) in structural models and a significant random effect (p < .01) in multilevel models. Depression was a partial mediator between suicide risk and grade pressure, low body image, victims of bullying, and concerns about disease. The largest total effect was observed in the grade pressure to depression to suicide risk. The multilevel models indicate about 27% of the variance in the daily suicide-related word search activity is explained by month-to-month variations. A lower employment rate, a higher rental prices index, and more bullying were associated with an increased suicide-related word search activity. Academic pressure appears to be the biggest contributor to Korean adolescents' suicide risk. Real-time suicide-related word search activity monitoring and response system needs to be developed. Copyright © 2016 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Safeguarding Your Retirement Fund.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Morrell, Louis R.

1989-01-01

Faculty members should consider becoming more involved in the oversight of their personal retirement funds. Both price and inflation risks are best controlled by taking a balanced or diversified approach to investing, with a portfolio based on a predetermined percentage of each type of investment. (MSE)

Stock price dynamics and option valuations under volatility feedback effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kanniainen, Juho; Piché, Robert

2013-02-01

According to the volatility feedback effect, an unexpected increase in squared volatility leads to an immediate decline in the price-dividend ratio. In this paper, we consider the properties of stock price dynamics and option valuations under the volatility feedback effect by modeling the joint dynamics of stock price, dividends, and volatility in continuous time. Most importantly, our model predicts the negative effect of an increase in squared return volatility on the value of deep-in-the-money call options and, furthermore, attempts to explain the volatility puzzle. We theoretically demonstrate a mechanism by which the market price of diffusion return risk, or an equity risk-premium, affects option prices and empirically illustrate how to identify that mechanism using forward-looking information on option contracts. Our theoretical and empirical results support the relevance of the volatility feedback effect. Overall, the results indicate that the prevailing practice of ignoring the time-varying dividend yield in option pricing can lead to oversimplification of the stock market dynamics.

48 CFR 235.006 - Contracting methods and contract type.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... Defense (Acquisition, Technology, and Logistics) (USD(AT&L)) of an intent not to exercise a fixed-price... award a fixed-price type contract for a development program effort unless— (1) The level of program risk permits realistic pricing; (2) The use of a fixed-price type contract permits an equitable and sensible...

AEP Ohio gridSMART Demonstration Project Real-Time Pricing Demonstration Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Widergren, Steven E.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Fuller, Jason C.

2014-02-01

This report contributes initial findings from an analysis of significant aspects of the gridSMART® Real-Time Pricing (RTP) – Double Auction demonstration project. Over the course of four years, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) worked with American Electric Power (AEP), Ohio and Battelle Memorial Institute to design, build, and operate an innovative system to engage residential consumers and their end-use resources in a participatory approach to electric system operations, an incentive-based approach that has the promise of providing greater efficiency under normal operating conditions and greater flexibility to react under situations of system stress. The material contained in this report supplementsmore » the findings documented by AEP Ohio in the main body of the gridSMART report. It delves into three main areas: impacts on system operations, impacts on households, and observations about the sensitivity of load to price changes.« less

Pricing of GPO Sales Publications.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schwarzkopf, LeRoy C.

This report analyzes the pricing policy of the Government Printing Office (GPO) for publications sold to the public. It discusses the sharp rise in prices for GPO sales publications from November 1972 through 1975. This is a detailed report which expands on the summary report prepared by the author as chairman of the Pricing Subcommittee, GPO…

Consumer price sensitivity and social health insurer choice in Germany and The Netherlands.

PubMed

Schut, Frederik T; Gress, Stefan; Wasem, Juergen

2003-06-01

In this paper, we examine the effects of the introduction of free choice and price competition in social health insurance in Germany and the Netherlands. Using panel data at the sickness fund level we estimate the price elasticity of sickness fund choice in both countries. We find that the price elasticity in Germany is high and rapidly increasing. Consistent with findings of other studies on health plan choice, the price elasticity is much lower for elderly than for non-elderly. In the Netherlands, by contrast, the price elasticity of fund choice is negligible. Only when people were forced to choose a sickness fund, they were quite sensitive to premium differences. Key factors in explaining the observed differences in switching behavior between both countries are the degree of financial risk for sickness funds, the features of the risk-adjustment mechanism and the role of employers.

Impacts of High Variable Renewable Energy Futures on Wholesale Electricity Prices, and on Electric-Sector Decision Making

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Seel, Joachim; Mills, Andrew D.; Wiser, Ryan H.

Increasing penetrations of variable renewable energy (VRE) can affect wholesale electricity price patterns and make them meaningfully different from past, traditional price patterns. Many long-lasting decisions for supply- and demand-side electricity infrastructure and programs are based on historical observations or assume a business-as-usual future with low shares of VRE. Our motivating question is whether certain electric-sector decisions that are made based on assumptions reflecting low VRE levels will still achieve their intended objective in a high VRE future. We qualitatively describe how various decisions may change with higher shares of VRE and outline an analytical framework for quantitatively evaluating themore » impacts of VRE on long-lasting decisions. We then present results from detailed electricity market simulations with capacity expansion and unit commitment models for multiple regions of the U.S. for low and high VRE futures. We find a general decrease in average annual hourly wholesale energy prices with more VRE penetration, increased price volatility and frequency of very low-priced hours, and changing diurnal price patterns. Ancillary service prices rise substantially and peak net-load hours with high capacity value are shifted increasingly into the evening, particularly for high solar futures. While in this report we only highlight qualitatively the possible impact of these altered price patterns on other demand- and supply-side electric sector decisions, the core set of electricity market prices derived here provides a foundation for later planned quantitative evaluations of these decisions in low and high VRE futures.« less

Persistence and amplitude of cigarette demand in relation to quit intentions and attempts

PubMed Central

O’Connor, Richard J.; Heckman, Bryan W.; Adkison, Sarah E.; Rees, Vaughan W.; Hatsukami, Dorothy K.; Bickel, Warren K.; Cummings, K. Michael

2016-01-01

INTRODUCTION The cigarette purchase task (CPT) is a method that can be used to assess relative value of cigarettes. Based on cigarettes purchased across a price range, five derived metrics (Omax, Pmax, breakpoint, intensity, elasticity) can assess cigarette demand. A study with adolescent smokers found that these could be reduced to two latent factors: Persistence (price insensitivity) and Amplitude (volumetric consumption). We sought to replicate this structure with adult smokers, and examine how these variables relate to cessation efforts. METHOD Web-based survey conducted in 2014 among adult (18+) current daily cigarette smokers (N=1194). Participants completed the CPT, Fagerstrom Test for Nicotine Dependence (FTND), reported past-year quit attempts, and future quit intentions. We included published scales assessing perceived prevalence of smoking, social reactivity, smoker identity, and risk perception. RESULTS Our analysis supported two latent variables, Persistence and Amplitude, which correlated positively with FTND. Persistence correlated with several psychosocial factors, and was higher among those intending to quit very soon, but did not vary by number of past-year quit attempts. Amplitude differed across quit attempts and intention (p’s <.001), and in multivariable models was significantly associated with lower 30-day quit intention [OR=0.76, p=.001]. CONCLUSIONS Persistence and Amplitude factors characterized CPT data in adults, discriminated known groups (e.g., smokers by intentions to quit), and were positively associated with nicotine dependence. Factor scores also appear to relate to certain psychosocial factors, such as smoker identity and perceptions of risk. Future research should examine the predictive validity of these constructs. PMID:27048156

Persistence and amplitude of cigarette demand in relation to quit intentions and attempts.

PubMed

O'Connor, Richard J; Heckman, Bryan W; Adkison, Sarah E; Rees, Vaughan W; Hatsukami, Dorothy K; Bickel, Warren K; Cummings, K Michael

2016-06-01

The cigarette purchase task (CPT) is a method that can be used to assess the relative value of cigarettes. Based on cigarettes purchased across a price range, five derived metrics (Omax, Pmax, breakpoint, intensity, and elasticity) can assess cigarette demand. A study with adolescent smokers found that these could be reduced to two latent factors: persistence (price insensitivity) and amplitude (volumetric consumption). We sought to replicate this structure with adult smokers and examine how these variables relate to cessation efforts. Web-based survey conducted in 2014 among adult (18 years and above) current daily cigarette smokers (N = 1194). Participants completed the CPT, Fagerstrom Test for Nicotine Dependence (FTND), reported past-year quit attempts, and future quit intentions. We included published scales assessing perceived prevalence of smoking, social reactivity, smoker identity, and risk perception. Our analysis supported two latent variables, persistence and amplitude, which correlated positively with FTND. Persistence was correlated with several psychosocial factors and was higher among those intending to quit very soon, but did not vary by number of past-year quit attempts. Amplitude differed across quit attempts and intention (p < 0.001) and, in multivariable models, was significantly associated with lower 30-day quit intention (OR = 0.76, p = 0.001). Persistence and amplitude factors characterized CPT data in adults, discriminated known groups (e.g., smokers by intentions to quit), and were positively associated with nicotine dependence. Factor scores also appear to relate to certain psychosocial factors, such as smoker identity and perceptions of risk. Future research should examine the predictive validity of these constructs.

Advanced supplier partnership practices: a case study.

PubMed

Williams, B R

2000-05-01

This article describes how a supplier partnership was set up to avoid the typical purchasing relationship--price being inversely proportional to quantity and having the purchaser take all the risk of product obsolescence. The case study also describes how rate-based replenishment replaced time-based delivery, and how all these advantages were achieved at reduced administrative costs.

Three essays on pricing and risk management in electricity markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kotsan, Serhiy

2005-07-01

A set of three papers forms this dissertation. In the first paper I analyze an electricity market that does not clear. The system operator satisfies fixed demand at a fixed price, and attempts to minimize "cost" as indicated by independent generators' supply bids. No equilibrium exists in this situation, and the operator lacks information sufficient to minimize actual cost. As a remedy, we propose a simple efficient tax mechanism. With the tax, Nash equilibrium bids still diverge from marginal cost but nonetheless provide sufficient information to minimize actual cost, regardless of the tax rate or number of generators. The second paper examines a price mechanism with one price assigned for each level of bundled real and reactive power. Equilibrium allocation under this pricing approach raises system efficiency via better allocation of the reactive power reserves, neglected in the traditional pricing approach. Pricing reactive power should be considered in the bundle with real power since its cost is highly dependent on real power output. The efficiency of pricing approach is shown in the general case, and tested on the 30-bus IEEE network with piecewise linear cost functions of the generators. Finally the third paper addresses the problem of optimal investment in generation based on mean-variance portfolio analysis. It is assumed the investor can freely create a portfolio of shares in generation located on buses of the electrical network. Investors are risk averse, and seek to minimize the variance of the weighted average Locational Marginal Price (LMP) in their portfolio, and to maximize its expected value. I conduct simulations using a standard IEEE 68-bus network that resembles the New York - New England system and calculate LMPs in accordance with the PJM methodology for a fully optimal AC power flow solution. Results indicate that the network topology is a crucial determinant of the investment decision as line congestion makes it difficult to deliver power to certain nodes at system peak load. Determining those nodes is an important task for an investor in generation as well as the transmission system operator.

Price-volume multifractal analysis and its application in Chinese stock markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Ying; Zhuang, Xin-tian; Liu, Zhi-ying

2012-06-01

An empirical research on Chinese stock markets is conducted using statistical tools. First, the multifractality of stock price return series, ri(ri=ln(Pt+1)-ln(Pt)) and trading volume variation series, vi(vi=ln(Vt+1)-ln(Vt)) is confirmed using multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis. Furthermore, a multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis between stock price return and trading volume variation in Chinese stock markets is also conducted. It is shown that the cross relationship between them is also found to be multifractal. Second, the cross-correlation between stock price Pi and trading volume Vi is empirically studied using cross-correlation function and detrended cross-correlation analysis. It is found that both Shanghai stock market and Shenzhen stock market show pronounced long-range cross-correlations between stock price and trading volume. Third, a composite index R based on price and trading volume is introduced. Compared with stock price return series ri and trading volume variation series vi, R variation series not only remain the characteristics of original series but also demonstrate the relative correlation between stock price and trading volume. Finally, we analyze the multifractal characteristics of R variation series before and after three financial events in China (namely, Price Limits, Reform of Non-tradable Shares and financial crisis in 2008) in the whole period of sample to study the changes of stock market fluctuation and financial risk. It is found that the empirical results verified the validity of R.

An Empirical Assessment of Defense Contractor Risk 1976-1984.

DTIC Science & Technology

1986-06-01

Model to evaluate the. Department of Defense contract pricing , financing, and profit policies . ’ D*’ ’ *NTV D? 7A’:: TA E *A l ..... -:- A-i SN 0102...defense con- tractor risk-return relationship is performed utilizing four methods: mean-variance analysis of rate of return, the Capital Asset Pricing Model ...relationship is performed utilizing four methods: mean- variance analysis of rate of return, the Capital Asset Pricing Model , mean-variance analysis of total

Twistact techno-economic analysis for wind turbine applications.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Naughton, Brian Thomas; Koplow, Jeffrey P.; Vanness, Justin William

This report is the final deliverable for a techno-economic analysis of the Sandia National Laboratories-developed Twistact rotary electrical conductor. The U.S. Department of Energy Wind Energy Technologies Office supported a team of researchers at Sandia National Laboratories and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory to evaluate the potential of the Twistact technology to serve as a viable replacement to rare-earth materials used in permanent-magnet direct-drive wind turbine generators. This report compares three detailed generator models, two as baseline technologies and a third incorporating the Twistact technology. These models are then used to calculate the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) for threemore » comparable offshore wind plants using the three generator topologies. The National Renewable Energy Laboratorys techno-economic analysis indicates that Twistact technology can be used to design low-maintenance, brush-free, and wire-wound (instead of rare-earth-element (REE) permanent-magnet), direct-drive wind turbine generators without a significant change in LCOE and generation efficiency. Twistact technology acts as a hedge against sources of uncertain costs for direct-drive generators. On the one hand, for permanent-magnet direct-drive (PMDD) generators, the long-term price of REEs may increase due to increases in future demand, from electric vehicles and other technologies, whereas the supply remains limited and geographically concentrated. The potential higher prices in the future adversely affect the cost competitiveness of PMDD generators and may thwart industry investment in the development of the technology for wind turbine applications. Twistact technology can eliminate industry risk around the uncertainty of REE price and availability. Traditional wire-wound direct-drive generators experience reliability issues and higher maintenance costs because of the wear on the contact brushes necessary for field excitation. The brushes experience significant wear and require regular replacement over the lifetime of operation (on the order of a year or potentially less time). For offshore wind applications, the focus of this study, maintenance costs are higher than typical land-based systems due to the added time it often requires to access the site for repairs. Thus, eliminating the need for regular brush replacements reduces the uncertain costs and energy production losses associated with maintenance and replacement of contact brushes. Further, Twistact has a relatively negligible impact on LCOE but hedges risks associated with the current dominant designs for direct-drive generators for PMDD REE price volatility and wire-wound generator contact brush reliability. A final section looks at the overall supply chain of REEs considering the supply-side and demand-side drivers that encourage the risk of depending on these materials to support future deployment of not only wind energy but other industries as well.« less

Is a HIV vaccine a viable option and at what price? An economic evaluation of adding HIV vaccination into existing prevention programs in Thailand.

PubMed

Leelahavarong, Pattara; Teerawattananon, Yot; Werayingyong, Pitsaphun; Akaleephan, Chutima; Premsri, Nakorn; Namwat, Chawetsan; Peerapatanapokin, Wiwat; Tangcharoensathien, Viroj

2011-07-05

This study aims to determine the maximum price at which HIV vaccination is cost-effective in the Thai healthcare setting. It also aims to identify the relative importance of vaccine characteristics and risk behavior changes among vaccine recipients to determine how they affect this cost-effectiveness. A semi-Markov model was developed to estimate the costs and health outcomes of HIV prevention programs combined with HIV vaccination in comparison to the existing HIV prevention programs without vaccination. The estimation was based on a lifetime horizon period (99 years) and used the government perspective. The analysis focused on both the general population and specific high-risk population groups. The maximum price of cost-effective vaccination was defined by using threshold analysis; one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed. The study employed an expected value of perfect information (EVPI) analysis to determine the relative importance of parameters and to prioritize future studies. The most expensive HIV vaccination which is cost-effective when given to the general population was 12,000 Thai baht (US$1 = 34 Thai baht in 2009). This vaccination came with 70% vaccine efficacy and lifetime protection as long as risk behavior was unchanged post-vaccination. The vaccine would be considered cost-ineffective at any price if it demonstrated low efficacy (30%) and if post-vaccination risk behavior increased by 10% or more, especially among the high-risk population groups. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were the most sensitive to change in post-vaccination risk behavior, followed by vaccine efficacy and duration of protection. The EVPI indicated the need to quantify vaccine efficacy, changed post-vaccination risk behavior, and the costs of vaccination programs. The approach used in this study differentiated it from other economic evaluations and can be applied for the economic evaluation of other health interventions not available in healthcare systems. This study is important not only for researchers conducting future HIV vaccine research but also for policy decision makers who, in the future, will consider vaccine adoption.

Food Prices and Climate Extremes: A Model of Global Grain Price Variability with Storage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otto, C.; Schewe, J.; Frieler, K.

2015-12-01

Extreme climate events such as droughts, floods, or heat waves affect agricultural production in major cropping regions and therefore impact the world market prices of staple crops. In the last decade, crop prices exhibited two very prominent price peaks in 2007-2008 and 2010-2011, threatening food security especially for poorer countries that are net importers of grain. There is evidence that these spikes in grain prices were at least partly triggered by actual supply shortages and the expectation of bad harvests. However, the response of the market to supply shocks is nonlinear and depends on complex and interlinked processes such as warehousing, speculation, and trade policies. Quantifying the contributions of such different factors to short-term price variability remains difficult, not least because many existing models ignore the role of storage which becomes important on short timescales. This in turn impedes the assessment of future climate change impacts on food prices. Here, we present a simple model of annual world grain prices that integrates grain stocks into the supply and demand functions. This firstly allows us to model explicitly the effect of storage strategies on world market price, and thus, for the first time, to quantify the potential contribution of trade policies to price variability in a simple global framework. Driven only by reported production and by long--term demand trends of the past ca. 40 years, the model reproduces observed variations in both the global storage volume and price of wheat. We demonstrate how recent price peaks can be reproduced by accounting for documented changes in storage strategies and trade policies, contrasting and complementing previous explanations based on different mechanisms such as speculation. Secondly, we show how the integration of storage allows long-term projections of grain price variability under climate change, based on existing crop yield scenarios.

CO 2 Sequestration and Enhanced Oil Recovery at Depleted Oil/Gas Reservoirs

DOE PAGES

Dai, Zhenxue; Viswanathan, Hari; Xiao, Ting; ...

2017-08-18

This study presents a quantitative evaluation of the operational and technical risks of an active CO 2-EOR project. A set of risk factor metrics is defined to post-process the Monte Carlo (MC) simulations for statistical analysis. The risk factors are expressed as measurable quantities that can be used to gain insight into project risk (e.g. environmental and economic risks) without the need to generate a rigorous consequence structure, which include (a) CO 2 injection rate, (b) net CO 2 injection rate, (c) cumulative CO 2 storage, (d) cumulative water injection, (e) oil production rate, (f) cumulative oil production, (g) cumulativemore » CH 4 production, and (h) CO 2 breakthrough time. The Morrow reservoir at the Farnsworth Unit (FWU) site, Texas, is used as an example for studying the multi-scale statistical approach for CO 2 accounting and risk analysis. A set of geostatistical-based MC simulations of CO 2-oil/gas-water flow and transport in the Morrow formation are conducted for evaluating the risk metrics. A response-surface-based economic model has been derived to calculate the CO 2-EOR profitability for the FWU site with a current oil price, which suggests that approximately 31% of the 1000 realizations can be profitable. If government carbon-tax credits are available, or the oil price goes up or CO 2 capture and operating expenses reduce, more realizations would be profitable.« less

CO 2 Sequestration and Enhanced Oil Recovery at Depleted Oil/Gas Reservoirs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dai, Zhenxue; Viswanathan, Hari; Xiao, Ting

This study presents a quantitative evaluation of the operational and technical risks of an active CO 2-EOR project. A set of risk factor metrics is defined to post-process the Monte Carlo (MC) simulations for statistical analysis. The risk factors are expressed as measurable quantities that can be used to gain insight into project risk (e.g. environmental and economic risks) without the need to generate a rigorous consequence structure, which include (a) CO 2 injection rate, (b) net CO 2 injection rate, (c) cumulative CO 2 storage, (d) cumulative water injection, (e) oil production rate, (f) cumulative oil production, (g) cumulativemore » CH 4 production, and (h) CO 2 breakthrough time. The Morrow reservoir at the Farnsworth Unit (FWU) site, Texas, is used as an example for studying the multi-scale statistical approach for CO 2 accounting and risk analysis. A set of geostatistical-based MC simulations of CO 2-oil/gas-water flow and transport in the Morrow formation are conducted for evaluating the risk metrics. A response-surface-based economic model has been derived to calculate the CO 2-EOR profitability for the FWU site with a current oil price, which suggests that approximately 31% of the 1000 realizations can be profitable. If government carbon-tax credits are available, or the oil price goes up or CO 2 capture and operating expenses reduce, more realizations would be profitable.« less

Do state minimum markup/price laws work? Evidence from retail scanner data and TUS-CPS

PubMed Central

Huang, Jidong; Chriqui, Jamie F; DeLong, Hillary; Mirza, Maryam; Diaz, Megan C; Chaloupka, Frank J

2016-01-01

Background Minimum markup/price laws (MPLs) have been proposed as an alternative non-tax pricing strategy to reduce tobacco use and access. However, the empirical evidence on the effectiveness of MPLs in increasing cigarette prices is very limited. This study aims to fill this critical gap by examining the association between MPLs and cigarette prices. Methods State MPLs were compiled from primary legal research databases and were linked to cigarette prices constructed from the Nielsen retail scanner data and the self-reported cigarette prices from the Tobacco Use Supplement to the Current Population Survey. Multivariate regression analyses were conducted to examine the association between MPLs and the major components of MPLs and cigarette prices. Results The presence of MPLs was associated with higher cigarette prices. In addition, cigarette prices were higher, above and beyond the higher prices resulting from MPLs, in states that prohibit below-cost combination sales; do not allow any distributing party to use trade discounts to reduce the base cost of cigarettes; prohibit distributing parties from meeting the price of a competitor, and prohibit distributing below-cost coupons to the consumer. Moreover, states that had total markup rates >24% were associated with significantly higher cigarette prices. Conclusions MPLs are an effective way to increase cigarette prices. The impact of MPLs can be further strengthened by imposing greater markup rates and by prohibiting coupon distribution, competitor price matching, and use of below-cost combination sales and trade discounts. PMID:27697948

Barriers to Household Risk Management: Evidence from India

PubMed Central

Cole, Shawn; Giné, Xavier; Tobacman, Jeremy; Townsend, Robert; Topalova, Petia; Vickery, James

2012-01-01

Why do many households remain exposed to large exogenous sources of non-systematic income risk? We use a series of randomized field experiments in rural India to test the importance of price and non-price factors in the adoption of an innovative rainfall insurance product. Demand is significantly price sensitive, but widespread take-up would not be achieved even if the product offered a payout ratio comparable to U.S. insurance contracts. We present evidence suggesting that lack of trust, liquidity constraints and limited salience are significant non-price frictions that constrain demand. We suggest contract design improvements to mitigate these frictions. PMID:24765234

Using price data to consider risk in the evaluation of forest management investments.

Treesearch

David C. Baumgartner; Carol A. Hyldahl

1991-01-01

Shows how existing information on the historic prices of various timber species and products can be used to provide a measure of the market risk, return, and efficient portfolios of alternative forestry investments using examples from three Midwestern states.

Schedule Risk Analysis Of Southern Mainway Construction In Jember Regency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Susilo, K.; Wiguna, I. P. A.; Adi, T. J. W.

2017-11-01

In Jember Regency, it has been built Southern Cross Road (JLS) as part of regional project. On the implementation of previous construction, there were still some events which gave negative impact to the project. The purpose of this research is to analyze risk and its effect on schedule at the construction phase of JLS at Jember Regency. Risk identification process is carried out by site survey, literature studies and supporting data. The use of Probability and Impact Matrix were aimed to obtain the level of risk. Based on the analysis, it was obtained six highest risk that could affecting schedule, such as difficult access locations, heavy rains, increases of material price, broken road pavement work, change order, and work accident. Risk responses were proposed by applying agreement to guarantee stock and price of materials, prioritized drainage, and constructing bridge to solve difficult access. An intense coordination in the site, routine checks of quality, manufacturing of retailing walls were also needed to reduce possibility of distruption to pavement work. To avoid work accident, it is needed to socialize about harsh terrain condition, mutual allertness among supervisor, worker and the others, and also all personals must comply with savety rules.

The relationship between US heroin market dynamics and heroin-related overdose, 1992–2008

PubMed Central

Unick, George; Rosenblum, Daniel; Mars, Sarah; Ciccarone, Daniel

2017-01-01

Background and Aims Heroin-related overdose is linked to polydrug use, changes in physiological tolerance and social factors. Individual risk can also be influenced by the structural risk environment including the illicit drug market. We hypothesized that components of the US illicit drug market, specifically heroin source/type, price and purity, will have independent effects on the number of heroin-related overdose hospital admissions. Methods Yearly, from 1992 to 2008, Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) price and purity series were estimated from the US Drug Enforcement Administration data. Yearly heroin overdose hospitalizations were constructed from the Nationwide Inpatient Sample. Socio-demographic variables were constructed using several databases. Negative binomial models were used to estimate the effect of price, purity and source region of heroin on yearly hospital counts of heroin overdoses controlling for poverty, unemployment, crime, MSA socio-demographic characteristics and population size. Results Purity was not associated with heroin overdose, but each $100 decrease in the price per pure gram of heroin resulted in a 2.9% [95% confidence interval (CI) = 4.8%, 1.0%] increase in the number of heroin overdose hospitalizations (P = 0.003). Each 10% increase in the market share of Colombian-sourced heroin was associated with a 4.1% (95% CI = 1.7%, 6.6%) increase in number of overdoses reported in hospitals (P = 0.001) independent of heroin quality. Conclusions Decreases in the price of pure heroin in the United States are associated with increased heroin-related overdose hospital admissions. Increases in market concentration of Colombian-source/type heroin is also associated with an increase in heroin-related overdose hospital admissions. Increases in US heroin-related overdose admissions appear to be related to structural changes in the US heroin market. PMID:24938727

The relationship between US heroin market dynamics and heroin-related overdose, 1992-2008.

PubMed

Unick, George; Rosenblum, Daniel; Mars, Sarah; Ciccarone, Daniel

2014-11-01

Heroin-related overdose is linked to polydrug use, changes in physiological tolerance and social factors. Individual risk can also be influenced by the structural risk environment including the illicit drug market. We hypothesized that components of the US illicit drug market, specifically heroin source/type, price and purity, will have independent effects on the number of heroin-related overdose hospital admissions. Yearly, from 1992 to 2008, Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) price and purity series were estimated from the US Drug Enforcement Administration data. Yearly heroin overdose hospitalizations were constructed from the Nationwide Inpatient Sample. Socio-demographic variables were constructed using several databases. Negative binomial models were used to estimate the effect of price, purity and source region of heroin on yearly hospital counts of heroin overdoses controlling for poverty, unemployment, crime, MSA socio-demographic characteristics and population size. Purity was not associated with heroin overdose, but each $100 decrease in the price per pure gram of heroin resulted in a 2.9% [95% confidence interval (CI) = 4.8%, 1.0%] increase in the number of heroin overdose hospitalizations (P = 0.003). Each 10% increase in the market share of Colombian-sourced heroin was associated with a 4.1% (95% CI = 1.7%, 6.6%) increase in number of overdoses reported in hospitals (P = 0.001) independent of heroin quality. Decreases in the price of pure heroin in the United States are associated with increased heroin-related overdose hospital admissions. Increases in market concentration of Colombian-source/type heroin is also associated with an increase in heroin-related overdose hospital admissions. Increases in US heroin-related overdose admissions appear to be related to structural changes in the US heroin market. © 2014 Society for the Study of Addiction.

Nuclear Power’s Global Expansion: Weighing Its Costs and Risks

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-12-01

collection of information if it does not display a currently valid OMB control number. 1. REPORT DATE DEC 2010 2. REPORT TYPE 3. DATES COVERED 00-00...precisely the ones that industry says will come on line by 2025, the date the current nuclear insurance liability limits under Price-Anderson...United States, the handful of remaining HEU-fueled plants receive government funding. This should end by establishing a date certain for these few

2nd Generation RLV Risk Definition Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davis, Robert M.; Stucker, Mark (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

The 2nd Generation RLV Risk Reduction Mid-Term Report summarizes the status of Kelly Space & Technology's activities during the first two and one half months of the program. This report was presented to the cognoscente Contracting Officer's Technical Representative (COTR) and selected Marshall Space Flight Center staff members on 26 September 2000. The report has been approved and is distributed on CD-ROM (as a PowerPoint file) in accordance with the terms of the subject contract, and contains information and data addressing the following: (1) Launch services demand and requirements; (2) Architecture, alternatives, and requirements; (3) Costs, pricing, and business cases analysis; (4) Commercial financing requirements, plans, and strategy; (5) System engineering processes and derived requirements; and (6) RLV system trade studies and design analysis.

Hardwood stumpage price trends in New England

Treesearch

D.F. Dennis; P.E. Sendak

1991-01-01

Stumpage price trends in New Hampshire and Vermont varied considerably among species and products. Real stumpage price trends, expressed in 1988 dollars using the Producer Price Index to remove the effect of inflation, are reported for selected species and products. Long-term (1964-1989) trends in average annual prices are reported for New Hampshire and short-term (...

Estimating Drug Costs: How do Manufacturer Net Prices Compare with Other Common US Price References?

PubMed

Mattingly, T Joseph; Levy, Joseph F; Slejko, Julia F; Onwudiwe, Nneka C; Perfetto, Eleanor M

2018-05-12

Drug costs are frequently estimated in economic analyses using wholesale acquisition cost (WAC), but what is the best approach to develop these estimates? Pharmaceutical manufacturers recently released transparency reports disclosing net price increases after accounting for rebates and other discounts. Our objective was to determine whether manufacturer net prices (MNPs) could approximate the discounted prices observed by the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA). We compared the annual, average price discounts voluntarily reported by three pharmaceutical manufacturers with the VA price for specific products from each company. The top 10 drugs by total sales reported from company tax filings for 2016 were included. The discount observed by the VA was determined from each drug's list price, reported as WAC, in 2016. Descriptive statistics were calculated for the VA discount observed and a weighted price index was calculated using the lowest price to the VA (Weighted VA Index), which was compared with the manufacturer index. The discounted price as a percentage of the WAC ranged from 9 to 74%. All three indexes estimated by the average discount to the VA were at or below the manufacturer indexes (42 vs. 50% for Eli Lilly, 56 vs. 65% for Johnson & Johnson, and 59 vs. 59% for Merck). Manufacturer-reported average net prices may provide a close approximation of the average discounted price granted to the VA, suggesting they may be a useful proxy for the true pharmacy benefits manager (PBM) or payer cost. However, individual discounts for products have wide variation, making a standard discount adjustment across multiple products less acceptable.

Domestic airlines fares consumer report. First report : third quarter 1996 passenger and fare information

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1997-06-01

In response to an increasing number of inquires about domestic airline prices, the Department of Transportation decided to release a quarterly fare report. This is the first report and is based on data for the third quarter of 1996. For each market, ...

Domestic airlines fares consumer report. Third report : first quarter 1997 passenger and fare information

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1997-09-01

In response to an increasing number of inquires about domestic airline prices, the Department of Transportation decided to release a quarterly fare report. This is the third report and is based on data for the first quarter of 1997. For each market, ...

Domestic airlines fares consumer report. Second report : fourth quarter 1996 passenger and fare information

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1997-08-01

In response to an increasing number of inquires about domestic airline prices, the Department of Transportation decided to release a quarterly fare report. This is the second report and is based on data for the fourth quarter of 1996. For each market...

Domestic airlines fares consumer report. Fourth report : second quarter 1997 passenger and fare information

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1998-01-01

In response to an increasing number of inquires about domestic airline prices, the Department of Transportation decided to release a quarterly fare report. This is the fourth report and is based on data for the second quarter of 1997. For each market...

Optimization of investment portfolio weight of stocks affected by market index

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azizah, E.; Rusyaman, E.; Supian, S.

2017-01-01

Stock price assessment, selection of optimum combination, and measure the risk of a portfolio investment is one important issue for investors. In this paper single index model used for the assessment of the stock price, and formulation optimization model developed using Lagrange multiplier technique to determine the proportion of assets to be invested. The level of risk is estimated by using variance. These models are used to analyse the stock price data Lippo Bank and Bumi Putera.

78 FR 52832 - Catastrophic Risk Protection Endorsement

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-08-27

... comments are as follows: General Comment: A commenter stated there should be zero catastrophic risk which... ``price election'' to determine the loss. Response: The Special Provisions were not removed from the order... phrase ``price election'' creates uniformity since the phrase has already been replaced in the Common...

Allocating risk capital for a brownfields redevelopment project under hydrogeological and financial uncertainty.

PubMed

Yu, Soonyoung; Unger, Andre J A; Parker, Beth; Kim, Taehee

2012-06-15

In this study, we defined risk capital as the contingency fee or insurance premium that a brownfields redeveloper needs to set aside from the sale of each house in case they need to repurchase it at a later date because the indoor air has been detrimentally affected by subsurface contamination. The likelihood that indoor air concentrations will exceed a regulatory level subject to subsurface heterogeneity and source zone location uncertainty is simulated by a physics-based hydrogeological model using Monte Carlo realizations, yielding the probability of failure. The cost of failure is the future value of the house indexed to the stochastic US National Housing index. The risk capital is essentially the probability of failure times the cost of failure with a surcharge to compensate the developer against hydrogeological and financial uncertainty, with the surcharge acting as safety loading reflecting the developers' level of risk aversion. We review five methodologies taken from the actuarial and financial literature to price the risk capital for a highly stylized brownfield redevelopment project, with each method specifically adapted to accommodate our notion of the probability of failure. The objective of this paper is to develop an actuarially consistent approach for combining the hydrogeological and financial uncertainty into a contingency fee that the brownfields developer should reserve (i.e. the risk capital) in order to hedge their risk exposure during the project. Results indicate that the price of the risk capital is much more sensitive to hydrogeological rather than financial uncertainty. We use the Capital Asset Pricing Model to estimate the risk-adjusted discount rate to depreciate all costs to present value for the brownfield redevelopment project. A key outcome of this work is that the presentation of our risk capital valuation methodology is sufficiently generalized for application to a wide variety of engineering projects. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

CO2 Accounting and Risk Analysis for CO2 Sequestration at Enhanced Oil Recovery Sites.

PubMed

Dai, Zhenxue; Viswanathan, Hari; Middleton, Richard; Pan, Feng; Ampomah, William; Yang, Changbing; Jia, Wei; Xiao, Ting; Lee, Si-Yong; McPherson, Brian; Balch, Robert; Grigg, Reid; White, Mark

2016-07-19

Using CO2 in enhanced oil recovery (CO2-EOR) is a promising technology for emissions management because CO2-EOR can dramatically reduce sequestration costs in the absence of emissions policies that include incentives for carbon capture and storage. This study develops a multiscale statistical framework to perform CO2 accounting and risk analysis in an EOR environment at the Farnsworth Unit (FWU), Texas. A set of geostatistical-based Monte Carlo simulations of CO2-oil/gas-water flow and transport in the Morrow formation are conducted for global sensitivity and statistical analysis of the major risk metrics: CO2/water injection/production rates, cumulative net CO2 storage, cumulative oil/gas productions, and CO2 breakthrough time. The median and confidence intervals are estimated for quantifying uncertainty ranges of the risk metrics. A response-surface-based economic model has been derived to calculate the CO2-EOR profitability for the FWU site with a current oil price, which suggests that approximately 31% of the 1000 realizations can be profitable. If government carbon-tax credits are available, or the oil price goes up or CO2 capture and operating expenses reduce, more realizations would be profitable. The results from this study provide valuable insights for understanding CO2 storage potential and the corresponding environmental and economic risks of commercial-scale CO2-sequestration in depleted reservoirs.

Changes in Patterns of Pricing and Financial Aid: Postsecondary Education Descriptive Analysis Report. NCES 2006-153

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cunningham, Alisa F.; Carroll, C. Dennis

2005-01-01

This report focuses on first-time, full-time, degree/certificate-seeking undergraduates in order to examine patterns of sticker prices, financial aid, and net prices from an institutional perspective. For the period 1999-2000 to 2001-02, the report examines how the price of attendance for full-time freshmen changed for various types of…

Can nutrition be promoted through agriculture-led food price policies? A systematic review

PubMed Central

Dangour, Alan D; Hawkesworth, Sophie; Shankar, Bhavani; Watson, Louise; Srinivasan, C S; Morgan, Emily H; Haddad, Lawrence; Waage, Jeff

2013-01-01

Objective To systematically review the available evidence on whether national or international agricultural policies that directly affect the price of food influence the prevalence rates of undernutrition or nutrition-related chronic disease in children and adults. Design Systematic review. Setting Global. Search strategy We systematically searched five databases for published literature (MEDLINE, EconLit, Agricola, AgEcon Search, Scopus) and systematically browsed other databases and relevant organisational websites for unpublished literature. Reference lists of included publications were hand-searched for additional relevant studies. We included studies that evaluated or simulated the effects of national or international food-price-related agricultural policies on nutrition outcomes reporting data collected after 1990 and published in English. Primary and secondary outcomes Prevalence rates of undernutrition (measured with anthropometry or clinical deficiencies) and overnutrition (obesity and nutrition-related chronic diseases including cancer, heart disease and diabetes). Results We identified a total of four relevant reports; two ex post evaluations and two ex ante simulations. A study from India reported on the undernutrition rates in children, and the other three studies from Egypt, the Netherlands and the USA reported on the nutrition-related chronic disease outcomes in adults. Two of the studies assessed the impact of policies that subsidised the price of agricultural outputs and two focused on public food distribution policies. The limited evidence base provided some support for the notion that agricultural policies that change the prices of foods at a national level can have an effect on population-level nutrition and health outcomes. Conclusions A systematic review of the available literature suggests that there is a paucity of robust direct evidence on the impact of agricultural price policies on nutrition and health. PMID:23801712

PEER Reports

Science.gov Websites

our reports. To order b&w hard copies of 2011 PEER Reports and beyond: PEER no longer keeps copies . Reports are individually priced based on the length of the report. If you are interested in a color hard copy of any reports, contact Replica Digital Ink by email. To order b&w hard copies of PEER Reports

Understanding differences between high- and low-price hospitals: implications for efforts to rein in costs.

PubMed

White, Chapin; Reschovsky, James D; Bond, Amelia M

2014-02-01

Private insurers pay widely varying prices for inpatient care across hospitals. Previous research indicates that certain hospitals use market clout to obtain higher payment rates, but there have been few in-depth examinations of the relationship between hospital characteristics and pricing power. This study used private insurance claims data to identify hospitals receiving inpatient prices significantly higher or lower than the median in their market. High-price hospitals, compared to other hospitals, tend to be larger; be major teaching hospitals; belong to systems with large market shares; and provide specialized services, such as heart transplants and Level I trauma care. High-price hospitals also receive significant revenues from nonpatient sources, such as state Medicaid disproportionate-share hospital funds, and they enjoy healthy total financial margins. Quality indicators for high-price hospitals were mixed: High-price hospitals fared much better than low-price hospitals did in U.S. News & World Report rankings, which are largely based on reputation, while generally scoring worse on objective measures of quality, such as postsurgical mortality rates. Thus, insurers may face resistance if they attempt to steer patients away from high-price hospitals because these facilities have good reputations and offer specialized services that may be unique in their markets.

Pricing for a basket of LCDS under fuzzy environments.

PubMed

Wu, Liang; Liu, Jie-Fang; Wang, Jun-Tao; Zhuang, Ya-Ming

2016-01-01

This paper looks at both the prepayment risks of housing mortgage loan credit default swaps (LCDS) as well as the fuzziness and hesitation of investors as regards prepayments by borrowers. It further discusses the first default pricing of a basket of LCDS in a fuzzy environment by using stochastic analysis and triangular intuition-based fuzzy set theory. Through the 'fuzzification' of the sensitivity coefficient in the prepayment intensity, this paper describes the dynamic features of mortgage housing values using the One-factor copula function and concludes with a formula for 'fuzzy' pricing the first default of a basket of LCDS. Using analog simulation to analyze the sensitivity of hesitation, we derive a model that considers what the LCDS fair premium is in a fuzzy environment, including a pure random environment. In addition, the model also shows that a suitable pricing range will give investors more flexible choices and make the predictions of the model closer to real market values.

Monthly petroleum-product price report. [January 1981 through June 1982

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1982-06-01

Data are reported on the prices of petroleum products for the period January 1981 through June 1982. The following products are included in the survey: gasoline, diesel fuels, No. 1 and No. 2 heating oils, No. 5 and No. 6 fuel oils, aviation fuels, kerosene, and liquified petroleum gases. Prices are also indexed according to ultimate consumer. This report provides Congress and the pubilc with information on monthly national weighted average prices for refined petroleum products. The data published are the primary source of price data for refined products for the refining, reselling, and retailing sectors necessary for the Departmentmore » of Energy (DOE) to execute its role in monitoring prices. In addition, the data provide the information necessary for Congress, DOE, and the public to perform analyses and projections related to energy supplies, demands, and prices. Price data in this publication were collected from separate surveys. Average prices are derived from a survey of refiners, large resellers and/or retailers, and independent gas plant operators. The geographic coverage for this report is the 50 states and the District of Columbia. (DMC)« less

Monthly petroleum product price report. [January 1981-March 1982

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Riner, C.

1982-03-01

Data are reported on the prices of petroleum products for the period January 1981 through March 1982. The following products are included in the survey: gasoline, diesel fuels, No. 1 and No. 2 heating oils, No. 5 and No. 6 fuel oils, aviation fuels, residual fuels, kerosene and liquefied petroleum gases. Prices are also indexed according to ultimate consumer. This report provides Congress and the public with information on monthly national weighted average prices for refined petroleum products. The data published are the primary source of price data for refined products for the refining, reselling, and retailing sectors necessary formore » the Department of Energy (DOE) to execute its role in monitoring prices. In addition, the data provide the information necessary for Congress, DOE, and the public to perform analyses and projections related to energy supplies, demands, and prices. Price data in this pubication were collected from separate surveys. Average prices are derived from a survey of refiners, large resellers and/or retailers, and independent gas plant operators. The geographic coverage for this report is the 50 states and the District of Columbia. (DMC)« less

Monthly petroleum product price report. [January 1981-May 1982

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1982-05-01

Data are reported on the prices of petroleum products for the period January 1981 through May 1982. The following products are included in the survey: gasoline, diesel fuels, No. 1 and No. 2 heating oils, No. 5 and No. 6 fuel oils, aviation fuels, residual fuels, kerosene, and liquefied petroleum gases. Prices are also indexed according to ultimate consumer. This report provides Congress and the public with information on monthly national weighted average prices for refined petroleum products. The data published are the primary source of price data for refined products for the refining, reselling, and retailing sectors necessary formore » the Department of Energy (DOE) to execute its role in monitoring prices. In addition, the data provide the information necessary for Congress, DOE, and the public to perform analyses and projections related to energy supplies, demands, and prices. Price data in this publication were collected from separate surveys. Average prices are derived from a survey of refiners, large resellers and/or retailers, and independent gas plant operators. The geographic coverage for this report is the 50 states and the District of Columbia. (DMC)« less

75 FR 69477 - Options Price Reporting Authority; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness of Proposed...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-11-12

...-Based Professional Subscriber Fees Charged by OPRA for its Basic Service November 8, 2010. Pursuant to... Options Last Sale Reports and Quotation Information (``OPRA Plan'').\\3\\ The proposed amendment would revise the device-based professional subscriber fees charged by OPRA in respect of its Basic Service. A...

7 CFR 226.10 - Program payment procedures.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... or reduced-price meals or are title XX beneficiaries. However, children who only receive at-risk afterschool snacks and/or at-risk afterschool meals must not be considered in determining this eligibility... less) that documents that at least 25 percent are eligible for free or reduced-price meals or are title...

Tool for Smart Integration of Solar Power

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Becker, Alan

2017-01-31

Kevala addresses a significant problem in solar deployment - reducing the risk of investing in solar by determining the inherent value of solar electricity based on the location where it is produced. Kevala’s product will transform the way solar assets are proposed, assessed, and financed resulting in lower capital costs, opening new markets and streamlining siting and customer acquisition. Using detailed electricity infrastructure data, pricing information, GIS mapping, and proprietary algorithms, Kevala’s Grid Assessor software lowers financial risk by providing transparency into the current and future value of projects based on their location.

Racial and Ethnic Differences in What Smokers Report Paying for Their Cigarettes

PubMed Central

Kong, Amanda Y.; Ribisl, Kurt M.

2016-01-01

Introduction: Smoking rates and tobacco-related health problems vary by race and ethnicity. We explore whether cigarette prices, a determinant of tobacco use, differ across racial and ethnic groups, and whether consumer behaviors influence these differences. Methods: We used national Tobacco Use Supplement data from 23 299 adult smokers in the United States to calculate average reported cigarette pack prices for six racial and ethnic groups. Using multivariate regression models, we analyzed the independent effect of race and ethnicity on price, and whether these effects changed once indicators of carton purchasing, menthol use, Indian reservation purchase, and state market prices were incorporated. Results: American Indians and whites pay similar amounts and report the lowest prices. Blacks, Hispanics, and Asians reported paying $0.42, $0.68, and $0.89 more for a pack of cigarettes than whites. After accounting for differences in consumer behaviors, these gaps shrunk to $0.27, $0.29, and $0.27, respectively, while American Indians paid $0.38 more than whites. Pack buying was associated with $0.99 higher per-pack prices than carton buying, which was most common among whites. Additionally, people who purchased off an Indian reservation reporting paying $1.54 more than those who purchased on reservation. Conclusions: Average reported cigarette prices vary by race and ethnicity, in part due to differences in product use and purchase location. Tobacco price policies, especially those that target low prices for multipack products or on Indian reservations may increase the prices paid by whites and American Indians, who smoke at the highest rates and pay the least per pack. Implications: This study examines differences in reported prices paid by different racial and ethnic groups, using recent, national data from the United States. Results indicating that racial and ethnic groups that smoke at the highest rates (American Indians and whites) also pay the least are consistent with evidence that price is a key factor in cigarette use. Additional analysis finds that cigarette purchasing behaviors, especially carton buying and purchasing on Indian reservations, partially account for the documented price differences, and suggest that policies focused on bulk purchases (carton, multipack) and reservation prices have strong tobacco control potential. PMID:26874329

Estimation of Value-at-Risk for Energy Commodities via CAViaR Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiliang, Zhao; Xi, Zhu

This paper uses the Conditional Autoregressive Value at Risk model (CAViaR) proposed by Engle and Manganelli (2004) to evaluate the value-at-risk for daily spot prices of Brent crude oil and West Texas Intermediate crude oil covering the period May 21th, 1987 to Novermber 18th, 2008. Then the accuracy of the estimates of CAViaR model, Normal-GARCH, and GED-GARCH was compared. The results show that all the methods do good job for the low confidence level (95%), and GED-GARCH is the best for spot WTI price, Normal-GARCH and Adaptive-CAViaR are the best for spot Brent price. However, for the high confidence level (99%), Normal-GARCH do a good job for spot WTI, GED-GARCH and four kind of CAViaR specifications do well for spot Brent price. Normal-GARCH does badly for spot Brent price. The result seems suggest that CAViaR do well as well as GED-GARCH since CAViaR directly model the quantile autoregression, but it does not outperform GED-GARCH although it does outperform Normal-GARCH.

The study on stage financing model of IT project investment.

PubMed

Chen, Si-hua; Xu, Sheng-hua; Lee, Changhoon; Xiong, Neal N; He, Wei

2014-01-01

Stage financing is the basic operation of venture capital investment. In investment, usually venture capitalists use different strategies to obtain the maximum returns. Due to its advantages to reduce the information asymmetry and agency cost, stage financing is widely used by venture capitalists. Although considerable attentions are devoted to stage financing, very little is known about the risk aversion strategies of IT projects. This paper mainly addresses the problem of risk aversion of venture capital investment in IT projects. Based on the analysis of characteristics of venture capital investment of IT projects, this paper introduces a real option pricing model to measure the value brought by the stage financing strategy and design a risk aversion model for IT projects. Because real option pricing method regards investment activity as contingent decision, it helps to make judgment on the management flexibility of IT projects and then make a more reasonable evaluation about the IT programs. Lastly by being applied to a real case, it further illustrates the effectiveness and feasibility of the model.

The Study on Stage Financing Model of IT Project Investment

PubMed Central

Xu, Sheng-hua; Xiong, Neal N.

2014-01-01

Stage financing is the basic operation of venture capital investment. In investment, usually venture capitalists use different strategies to obtain the maximum returns. Due to its advantages to reduce the information asymmetry and agency cost, stage financing is widely used by venture capitalists. Although considerable attentions are devoted to stage financing, very little is known about the risk aversion strategies of IT projects. This paper mainly addresses the problem of risk aversion of venture capital investment in IT projects. Based on the analysis of characteristics of venture capital investment of IT projects, this paper introduces a real option pricing model to measure the value brought by the stage financing strategy and design a risk aversion model for IT projects. Because real option pricing method regards investment activity as contingent decision, it helps to make judgment on the management flexibility of IT projects and then make a more reasonable evaluation about the IT programs. Lastly by being applied to a real case, it further illustrates the effectiveness and feasibility of the model. PMID:25147845

17 CFR 16.01 - Trading volume, open contracts, prices, and critical dates.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... TRADING COMMISSION REPORTS BY REPORTING MARKETS § 16.01 Trading volume, open contracts, prices, and critical dates. (a) Trading volume and open contracts. Each reporting market shall record for each business... total volume of trading. (b) Prices. Each reporting market shall record the following information...

Variation in Prices of Cardiovascular Drugs in Public and Private Pharmacies in Nepal

PubMed Central

Kandel, Nirajan; Subedi, Narayan; Khanal, Vishnu

2015-01-01

Introduction: Higher price of cardiovascular drugs is one of the reasons for high out-of-pocket expenditure in cardiovascular care. The objective of the study was to determine the price variation in commonly available cardiovascular drugs between public and private hospital pharmacies in Nepal. Methods: A cross-sectional survey was conducted in 3 public and 3 private pharmacies in tertiary-level hospitals in Nepal. The price was recorded for the list of drugs commonly available in those pharmacies. A total of 23 drugs were selected for data collection. The price was recorded based on the payment receipt and price reported by surrogate customers. We defined the price variation as the difference between price of cardiovascular drugs between public hospital and private pharmacy. The price variation was expressed as percentage. Results: Price of Amlodipine 5 mg was higher by 667% in private pharmacy nearby Tribhuvan University Teaching Hospital (TUTH) compared to that of TUTH pharmacy. Price of Enalapril 5 mg was higher by 14.47% in Manmohan Cardio Thoracic and Vascular Transplant Centre (MCVTC) compared to nearby private pharmacy. We observed that the price of cardiovascular drugs varied significantly between hospital and private retail pharmacies in TUTH (P < .001) and MCVTC (P < .001). Conclusion: For most of the cardiovascular drugs, the price in private retail pharmacies were significantly higher than in hospital pharmacies. Future steps should be taken to establish and run own pharmacies in hospitals which would reduce the cost of medicine and thereby, increase access to medicine. PMID:28462249

An evaluation of federal order reform.

PubMed

Bailey, K; Tozer, P

2001-04-01

The Federal Agricultural Improvement and Reform Act of 1996 required the Secretary of Agriculture to reform federal milk marketing orders. The Secretary carried out this task and issued a final rule on March 31, 1999, that was eventually approved by dairy farmers in a national referendum. However, a temporary restraining order (TRO) was issued on September 28, 1999, that halted the reform process. The TRO was effectively overturned and the reform process restarted when President Bill Clinton signed the Consolidated Appropriations Act of 2000 on November 29, 1999. The final rule as amended consolidates the number of orders, develops a multiple component pricing system that determines new formulas for class prices, and provides a new system for pricing fluid milk based on county-level price differentials. The impact of these changes is to provide more transparency in pricing and improved market signals to farmers. But the new system is also much more vulnerable to changes in dairy commodity prices. The objective of this report is to provide a comprehensive overview of federal order reform and to analyze the impact of recent changes in class price formulas.

Insurance against climate change and flood risk: Insurability and decision processes of insurers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hung, Hung-Chih; Hung, Jia-Yi

2016-04-01

1. Background Major portions of the Asia-Pacific region is facing escalating exposure and vulnerability to climate change and flood-related extremes. This highlights an arduous challenge for public agencies to improve existing risk management strategies. Conventionally, governmental funding was majorly responsible and accountable for disaster loss compensation in the developing countries in Asia, such as Taiwan. This is often criticized as an ineffective and inefficient measure of dealing with flood risk. Flood insurance is one option within the toolkit of risk-sharing arrangement and adaptation strategy to flood risk. However, there are numerous potential barriers for insurance companies to cover flood damage, which would cause the flood risk is regarded as uninsurable. This study thus aims to examine attitudes within the insurers about the viability of flood insurance, the decision-making processes of pricing flood insurance and their determinants, as well as to examine potential solutions to encourage flood insurance. 2. Methods and data Using expected-utility theory, an insurance agent-based decision-making model was developed to examine the insurers' attitudes towards the insurability of flood risk, and to scrutinize the factors that influence their decisions on flood insurance premium-setting. This model particularly focuses on how insurers price insurance when they face either uncertainty or ambiguity about the probability and loss of a particular flood event occurring. This study considers the factors that are expected to affect insures' decisions on underwriting and pricing insurance are their risk perception, attitudes towards flood insurance, governmental measures (e.g., land-use planning, building codes, risk communication), expected probabilities and losses of devastating flooding events, as well as insurance companies' attributes. To elicit insurers' utilities about premium-setting for insurance coverage, the 'certainty equivalent,' 'probability equivalent,' and 'gamble tradeoff' methods were used. We then synthesized a Tobit and an OLS regression analysis to identify and examine the determinants of insurers' decisions on insurability and pricing for flood risk. Furthermore, the data were collected through a questionnaire survey, which was conducted with the assistance from the Non-life Underwriters Society, Taiwan and the Actuarial Institute, Taiwan. After pretesting, questionnaires were mailed to 410 randomly chosen commercial property-and-casualty insurance firms' actuaries and underwriters. The final sample consisted of 179 questionnaires for a 43.8% response rate. 3. Results Results of the questionnaire survey reveal that flood risk tends to be more uninsurable when there is ambiguity regarding the probability of a particular flood event loss. The presence of insurers' risk aversion appears to be robust. Insurers would charge a significantly higher price for a flood insurance policy than normal property insurance. The findings also show that the insurers who perceived higher levels of flood risk, or/and had a company with smaller size or higher financial leverage, would trigger a higher premium for flood insurance. Governmental risk management strategies, such as land-use planning, building codes, flood-hazard zone regulations, also played a prominent role in enhancing insurability and decreasing insurance premium. Therefore, appropriate incentives should be combined with better public risk communication and mitigation strategies to stimulate insurance coverage in reducing flood loss.

Price trends for federal-aid highway construction : 1987 base, fourth quarter 1997

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2002-12-20

This document is a summary of the report to Congress titled: "1999 Status of the Nation's Highways, Bridges, and Transit: Conditions and Performance" (C&P report). The C&P report is intended to provide Congress and other decision makers with an objec...

Determinants of residential water consumption: Evidence and analysis from a 10-country household survey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grafton, R. Quentin; Ward, Michael B.; To, Hang; Kompas, Tom

2011-08-01

Household survey data for 10 countries are used to quantify and test the importance of price and nonprice factors on residential water demand and investigate complementarities between household water-saving behaviors and the average volumetric price of water. Results show (1) the average volumetric price of water is an important predictor of differences in residential consumption in models that include household characteristics, water-saving devices, attitudinal characteristics and environmental concerns as explanatory variables; (2) of all water-saving devices, only a low volume/dual-flush toilet has a statistically significant and negative effect on water consumption; and (3) environmental concerns have a statistically significant effect on some self-reported water-saving behaviors. While price-based approaches are espoused to promote economic efficiency, our findings stress that volumetric water pricing is also one of the most effective policy levers available to regulate household water consumption.

Essays on energy derivatives pricing and financial risk management =

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Madaleno, Mara Teresa da Silva

This thesis consists of an introductory chapter (essay I) and five more empirical essays on electricity markets and CO2 spot price behaviour, derivatives pricing analysis and hedging. Essay I presents the structure of the thesis and electricity markets functioning and characteristics, as well as the type of products traded, to be analyzed on the following essays. In the second essay we conduct an empirical study on co-movements in electricity markets resorting to wavelet analysis, discussing long-term dynamics and markets integration. Essay three is about hedging performance and multiscale relationships in the German electricity spot and futures markets, also using wavelet analysis. We concentrate the investigation on the relationship between coherence evolution and hedge ratio analysis, on a time-frequency-scale approach, between spot and futures which conditions the effectiveness of the hedging strategy. Essays four, five and six are interrelated between them and with the other two previous essays given the nature of the commodity analyzed, CO2 emission allowances, traded in electricity markets. Relationships between electricity prices, primary energy fuel prices and carbon dioxide permits are analyzed on essay four. The efficiency of the European market for allowances is examined taking into account markets heterogeneity. Essay five analyzes stylized statistical properties of the recent traded asset CO2 emission allowances, for spot and futures returns, examining also the relation linking convenience yield and risk premium, for the German European Energy Exchange (EEX) between October 2005 and October 2009. The study was conducted through empirical estimations of CO2 allowances risk premium, convenience yield, and their relation. Future prices from an ex-post perspective are examined to show evidence for significant negative risk premium, or else a positive forward premium. Finally, essay six analyzes emission allowances futures hedging effectiveness, providing evidence for utility gains increases with investor’s preference over risk. Deregulation of electricity markets has led to higher uncertainty in electricity prices and by presenting these essays we try to shed new lights about structuring, pricing and hedging in this type of markets.

A break-even price calculation for the use of sirolimus-eluting stents in angioplasty.

PubMed

Galanaud, Jean-Philippe; Delavennat, Juliette; Durand-Zaleski, Isabelle

2003-03-01

One of the major complications of angioplasty is the early occurrence of restenosis requiring a repeat procedure. When bare-metal stents are used, clinical restenosis results in a repeat procedure in 10% to 15% of cases. Based on the results of an international, randomized clinical trial, the use of sirolimus-eluting stents reduces this risk. The aims of this study were to calculate the theoretical break-even price for sirolimus-eluting stents in France, the Netherlands, and the United States, and to determine the additional health care cost per patient. The break-even price was calculated by adding the savings resulting from a 15% decrease in the rate of clinical restenosis to the price of bare-metal stents. Costs were computed from the viewpoint of the health care system, exclusive of other societal costs. The break-even prices were 1291 Euro to 1489 Euro in France, 2028 Euro in the Netherlands, and 2708 Euroin the United States (1.00 Euro = 1.00 US dollar in purchasing power parity). These results indicate that the commercial price of sirolimuseluting stents will increase hospital spending for patients undergoing angioplasty by 17% to 55% per patient. This additional cost to the health care system should be discussed in view of possible productivity savings and improved quality of life for patients.

Forecasting Natural Rubber Price In Malaysia Using Arima

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zahari, Fatin Z.; Khalid, Kamil; Roslan, Rozaini; Sufahani, Suliadi; Mohamad, Mahathir; Saifullah Rusiman, Mohd; Ali, Maselan

2018-04-01

This paper contains introduction, materials and methods, results and discussions, conclusions and references. Based on the title mentioned, high volatility of the price of natural rubber nowadays will give the significant risk to the producers, traders, consumers, and others parties involved in the production of natural rubber. To help them in making decisions, forecasting is needed to predict the price of natural rubber. The main objective of the research is to forecast the upcoming price of natural rubber by using the reliable statistical method. The data are gathered from Malaysia Rubber Board which the data are from January 2000 until December 2015. In this research, average monthly price of Standard Malaysia Rubber 20 (SMR20) will be forecast by using Box-Jenkins approach. Time series plot is used to determine the pattern of the data. The data have trend pattern which indicates the data is non-stationary data and the data need to be transformed. By using the Box-Jenkins method, the best fit model for the time series data is ARIMA (1, 1, 0) which this model satisfy all the criteria needed. Hence, ARIMA (1, 1, 0) is the best fitted model and the model will be used to forecast the average monthly price of Standard Malaysia Rubber 20 (SMR20) for twelve months ahead.

Option pricing: a flexible tool to disseminate shared savings contracts.

PubMed

Friedberg, Mark W; Buendia, Anthony M; Lauderdale, Katherine E; Hussey, Peter S

2013-08-01

Due to volatility in healthcare costs, shared savings contracts can create systematic financial losses for payers, especially when contracting with smaller providers. To improve the business case for shared savings, we calculated the prices of financial options that payers can "sell" to providers to offset these losses. Using 2009 to 2010 member-level total cost of care data from a large commercial health plan, we calculated option prices by applying a bootstrap simulation procedure. We repeated these simulations for providers of sizes ranging from 500 to 60,000 patients and for shared savings contracts with and without key design features (minimum savings thresholds,bonus caps, cost outlier truncation, and downside risk) and under assumptions of zero, 1%, and 2% real cost reductions due to the shared savings contracts. Assuming no real cost reduction and a 50% shared savings rate, per patient option prices ranged from $225 (3.1% of overall costs) for 500-patient providers to $23 (0.3%) for 60,000-patient providers. Introducing minimum savings thresholds, bonus caps, cost outlier truncation, and downside risk reduced these option prices. Option prices were highly sensitive to the magnitude of real cost reductions. If shared savings contracts cause 2% reductions in total costs, option prices fall to zero for all but the smallest providers. Calculating the prices of financial options that protect payers and providers from downside risk can inject flexibility into shared savings contracts, extend such contracts to smaller providers, and clarify the tradeoffs between different contract designs, potentially speeding the dissemination of shared savings.

Economic risk assessment of drought impacts on irrigated agriculture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lopez-Nicolas, A.; Pulido-Velazquez, M.; Macian-Sorribes, H.

2017-07-01

In this paper we present an innovative framework for an economic risk analysis of drought impacts on irrigated agriculture. It consists on the integration of three components: stochastic time series modelling for prediction of inflows and future reservoir storages at the beginning of the irrigation season; statistical regression for the evaluation of water deliveries based on projected inflows and storages; and econometric modelling for economic assessment of the production value of agriculture based on irrigation water deliveries and crop prices. Therefore, the effect of the price volatility can be isolated from the losses due to water scarcity in the assessment of the drought impacts. Monte Carlo simulations are applied to generate probability functions of inflows, which are translated into probabilities of storages, deliveries, and finally, production value of agriculture. The framework also allows the assessment of the value of mitigation measures as reduction of economic losses during droughts. The approach was applied to the Jucar river basin, a complex system affected by multiannual severe droughts, with irrigated agriculture as the main consumptive demand. Probability distributions of deliveries and production value were obtained for each irrigation season. In the majority of the irrigation districts, drought causes a significant economic impact. The increase of crop prices can partially offset the losses from the reduction of production due to water scarcity in some districts. Emergency wells contribute to mitigating the droughts' impacts on the Jucar river system.

Routine real-time cost-effectiveness monitoring of a web-based depression intervention: a risk-sharing proposal.

PubMed

Naveršnik, Klemen; Mrhar, Aleš

2014-02-27

A new health care technology must be cost-effective in order to be adopted. If evidence regarding cost-effectiveness is uncertain, then the decision maker faces two choices: (1) adopt the technology and run the risk that it is less effective in actual practice, or (2) reject the technology and risk that potential health is forgone. A new depression eHealth service was found to be cost-effective in a previously published study. The results, however, were unreliable because it was based on a pilot clinical trial. A conservative decision maker would normally require stronger evidence for the intervention to be implemented. Our objective was to evaluate how to facilitate service implementation by shifting the burden of risk due to uncertainty to the service provider and ensure that the intervention remains cost-effective during routine use. We propose a risk-sharing scheme, where the service cost depends on the actual effectiveness of the service in real-life setting. Routine efficacy data can be used as the input to the cost-effectiveness model, which employs a mapping function to translate a depression specific score into quality-adjusted life-years. The latter is the denominator in the cost-effectiveness ratio calculation, required by the health care decision maker. The output of the model is a "value graph", showing intervention value as a function of its observed (future) efficacy, using the €30,000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) threshold. We found that the eHealth service should improve the patient's outcome by at least 11.9 points on the Beck Depression Inventory scale in order for the cost-effectiveness ratio to remain below the €30,000/QALY threshold. The value of a single point improvement was found to be between €200 and €700, depending on depression severity at treatment start. Value of the eHealth service, based on the current efficacy estimates, is €1900, which is significantly above its estimated cost (€200). The eHealth depression service is particularly suited to routine monitoring, since data can be gathered through the Internet within the service communication channels. This enables real-time cost-effectiveness evaluation and allows a value-based price to be established. We propose a novel pricing scheme where the price is set to a point in the interval between cost and value, which provides an economic surplus to both the payer and the provider. Such a business model will assure that a portion of the surplus is retained by the payer and not completely appropriated by the private provider. If the eHealth service were to turn out less effective than originally anticipated, then the price would be lowered in order to achieve the cost-effectiveness threshold and this risk of financial loss would be borne by the provider.

24 CFR 201.2 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... Association, and which is designed to reduce the risk of death, personal injury, or property damage resulting... or advance, plus interest, if any, at a stated annual rate over time, with the borrower's obligation... details the wholesale (base) prices at the factory for specific models or series of manufactured homes and...

12 CFR 222.75 - Rules of construction.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... of an automobile. If the auto dealer is the person to whom the loan obligation is initially payable, such as where the auto dealer is the original creditor under a retail installment sales contract, the auto dealer must provide the risk-based pricing notice to the consumer (or satisfy the requirements for...

12 CFR 222.75 - Rules of construction.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... of an automobile. If the auto dealer is the person to whom the loan obligation is initially payable, such as where the auto dealer is the original creditor under a retail installment sales contract, the auto dealer must provide the risk-based pricing notice to the consumer (or satisfy the requirements for...

12 CFR 222.75 - Rules of construction.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... of an automobile. If the auto dealer is the person to whom the loan obligation is initially payable, such as where the auto dealer is the original creditor under a retail installment sales contract, the auto dealer must provide the risk-based pricing notice to the consumer (or satisfy the requirements for...

12 CFR 222.75 - Rules of construction.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... of an automobile. If the auto dealer is the person to whom the loan obligation is initially payable, such as where the auto dealer is the original creditor under a retail installment sales contract, the auto dealer must provide the risk-based pricing notice to the consumer (or satisfy the requirements for...

Conservative Delta Hedging

DTIC Science & Technology

1997-09-01

an exact method for converting such intervals into arbitrage based prices of financial derivatives or industrial or contractual options. We call this...procedure conservative delta hedging . As existing procedures are of an ad hoc nature, the proposed approach will permit an institution’s man agement a greater oversight of its exposure to risk.

7 CFR 1427.3 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... they conflict with definitions in this section. Adjusted spot price means the spot price adjusted to reflect any lack of data for base quality to make the adjusted spot price comparable to a spot price assuming the base quality. If base quality spot price data are not available, spot prices for other...

7 CFR 1427.3 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... they conflict with definitions in this section. Adjusted spot price means the spot price adjusted to reflect any lack of data for base quality to make the adjusted spot price comparable to a spot price assuming the base quality. If base quality spot price data are not available, spot prices for other...

Higher Education Prices and Price Indexes. 1978 Supplement.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Halstead, D. Kent; Hickson, Lenel

The 1978 supplement to the basic study, Higher Education Prices and Price Indexes, presents higher education price index data for fiscal years 1971 through 1978. A price index series measures the effects of price change, and price change only, on a fixed group of items. The indexes reported here measure price changes from 1967, the reference date.…

Assistive technology pricing in Australia: is it efficient and equitable?

PubMed

Summers, Michael P; Verikios, George

2018-02-01

Objective To examine available systematically collected evidence regarding prices for assistive technology (AT; e.g. disability aids and equipment) in Australia with other comparable countries. Issues of appropriate AT pricing are coming to the fore as a consequence of efforts to move to consumer-centric purchasing decisions with the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) and also in the recent aged care reforms. Methods We identified and present three sets of AT price comparisons. Two comparisons were based solely on the lowest prices advertised on the internet, and one comparison examined recommended retail prices. Variables essential to ensuring accurate comparisons, as well as significant supply-chain issues were also examined and considered in the analyses. Results The first internet-only price comparison found that overall AT prices were 38% higher in Australia compared to other countries, but did not factor in shipping and other related costs that are essential to include given that most AT is imported. The second internet-only price comparison found that overall Australian prices were 24% lower when shipping and related costs were included. The recommended retail price comparisons found that Australian prices were between 14% and 27% lower. Prices for internet-only retailers (those with no bricks-and-mortar presence) are consistently lower for all products than those sold by retailers with actual shop-fronts. Further, there is no evidence of suppliers earning supranormal profits in Australia. Conclusions The results indicate that AT prices in Australia are efficient and equitable, with no significant indicators of market failure which would require government intervention. Efforts to reduce prices through the excessive use of large-scale government procurement programs are likely to reduce diversity and innovation in AT and raise AT prices over time. Open markets and competition with centralised tracking of purchases and providers to minimise possible over-servicing/over-charging align well with the original intention of the NDIS, and are likely to yield the best outcomes for consumers at the lowest costs. What is known about the topic? Government-funded programs are used extensively to purchase AT because it is a primary enabler for people of all ages with disabilities. Perceptions of unreasonably high prices for AT in Australia are resulting in the widespread adoption of bulk purchasing and related strategies by governments. What does this paper add? Carefully undertaken systematic price comparisons between Australia and comparable Organization For Economic Cooperation and Development countries indicate that, on average, Australian prices are lower than elsewhere when delivery to Australia is taken into account. It was also found that prices at brick-and-mortar shops, with all the services they provide to ensure the appropriateness of the products provided to meet the consumers' needs and goals, are substantially higher than Internet purchases in which the consumer bears all the risks and responsibilities for outcomes. What are the implications? Overuse of government bulk purchasing and similar arrangements will lead to less diversity in the available AT products, related services and retail outlets, resulting in less choice for consumers and higher risks of poor outcomes through less focus on matching consumers with the 'right' products for their needs and goals, and ultimately higher AT prices over time as competition is reduced to a few major suppliers.

Food Price Spikes Are Associated with Increased Malnutrition among Children in Andhra Pradesh, India123

PubMed Central

Vellakkal, Sukumar; Fledderjohann, Jasmine; Basu, Sanjay; Agrawal, Sutapa; Ebrahim, Shah; Campbell, Oona; Doyle, Pat; Stuckler, David

2015-01-01

Background: Global food prices have risen sharply since 2007. The impact of food price spikes on the risk of malnutrition in children is not well understood. Objective: We investigated the associations between food price spikes and childhood malnutrition in Andhra Pradesh, one of India’s largest states, with >85 million people. Because wasting (thinness) indicates in most cases a recent and severe process of weight loss that is often associated with acute food shortage, we tested the hypothesis that the escalating prices of rice, legumes, eggs, and other staples of Indian diets significantly increased the risk of wasting (weight-for-height z scores) in children. Methods: We studied periods before (2006) and directly after (2009) India’s food price spikes with the use of the Young Lives longitudinal cohort of 1918 children in Andhra Pradesh linked to food price data from the National Sample Survey Office. Two-stage least squares instrumental variable models assessed the relation of food price changes to food consumption and wasting prevalence (weight-for-height z scores). Results: Before the 2007 food price spike, wasting prevalence fell from 19.4% in 2002 to 18.8% in 2006. Coinciding with India’s escalating food prices, wasting increased significantly to 28.0% in 2009. These increases were concentrated among low- (χ2: 21.6, P < 0.001) and middle- (χ2: 25.9, P < 0.001) income groups, but not among high-income groups (χ2: 3.08, P = 0.079). Each 10.0 rupee ($0.170) increase in the price of rice/kg was associated with a drop in child-level rice consumption of 73.0 g/d (β: −7.30; 95% CI: −10.5, −3.90). Correspondingly, lower rice consumption was significantly associated with lower weight-for-height z scores (i.e., wasting) by 0.005 (95% CI: 0.001, 0.008), as seen with most other food categories. Conclusion: Rising food prices were associated with an increased risk of malnutrition among children in India. Policies to help ensure the affordability of food in the context of economic growth are likely critical for promoting children’s nutrition. PMID:26136589

Sociological Factors Affecting Agricultural Price Risk Management in Australia

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jackson, Elizabeth; Quaddus, Mohammed; Islam, Nazrul; Stanton, John

2009-01-01

The highly volatile auction system in Australia accounts for 85 percent of ex-farm wool sales, with the remainder sold by forward contract, futures, and other hedging methods. In this article, against the background of an extensive literature on price risk strategies, we investigate the behavioral factors associated with producers' adoption of…

The influence of an online auction's product price and e-retailer reputation on consumers' perception, attitude, and behavioral intention.

PubMed

Wu, Wann-Yih; Huang, Po-Ching; Fu, Chen-Su

2011-06-01

Online auctions combine the conventional auction model with information technology. However, information asymmetry within such auctions causes risks and uncertainties that influence consumer purchase intentions. In this study, a 2 (product price: high vs. low) × 2 (e-retailer reputation: high vs. low) experimental design was used to understand whether the product price and e-retailer reputation will influence consumers' perceived risk, attitude toward the website and purchase intention. The results of this study indicate that perceived risk negatively influences consumer attitude toward the website and online purchase intention, while consumer attitude toward the website positively influences purchase intention. Moreover, involvement moderates the influence of product price and e-retailer reputation only on social risk but does not have a significant effect on consumer attitude toward the website. This study contributes to a more comprehensive understanding of online auction users' behavior. Finally, the managerial implications, limitations and future research directions are also provided. © 2011 The Authors. Scandinavian Journal of Psychology © 2011 The Scandinavian Psychological Associations.

Securitization product design for China's environmental pollution liability insurance.

PubMed

Pu, Chengyi; Addai, Bismark; Pan, Xiaojun; Bo, Pangtuo

2017-02-01

The environmental catastrophic accidents in China over the last three decades have triggered implementation of myriad policies by the government to help abate environmental pollution in the country. Consequently, research into environmental pollution liability insurance and how that can stimulate economic growth and the development of financial market in China is worthwhile. This study attempts to design a financial derivative for China's environmental pollution liability insurance to offer strong financial support for significant compensation towards potential catastrophic environmental loss exposures, especially losses from the chemical industry. Assuming the risk-free interest rate is 4%, the market portfolio expected return is 12%; the financial asset beta coefficient is 0.5, by using the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) and cash flow analysis; the principal risk bond yields 9.4%, single-period and two-period prices are 103.85 and 111.58, respectively; the principal partial-risk bond yields 10.09%, single-period and two-period prices are 103.85 and 111.58, respectively; and the principal risk-free bond yields 8.94%, single-period and two-period prices are 107.99 and 115.83, respectively. This loss exposure transfer framework transfers the catastrophic risks of environmental pollution from the traditional insurance and reinsurance markets to the capital market. This strengthens the underwriting capacity of environmental pollution liability insurance companies, mitigates the compensation risks of insurers and reinsurers, and provides a new channel to transfer the risks of environmental pollution.

Should the Department of Defense Hedge Oil Prices in Order to Save Money

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-03-01

NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA MBA PROFESSIONAL REPORT Should the Department of Defense Hedge Oil Prices In Order...DATES COVERED MBA Professional Report 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Should the Department of Defense Hedge Oil Prices in Order to Save Money? 6. James...the DoD. 15. NUMBER OF PAGES 59 14. SUBJECT TERMS Futures, Options, Swaps, Hedging . Oil Prices, DoD, Procurement 16. PRICE CODE

Monthly Petroleum Product Price Report, October 1981

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1981-01-01

Data are reported on the prices of petroleum products for the period January 1980 through October 1981. The following products are included in the survey: gasoline, diesel fuels, residual fuels, aviation fuels, kerosene, liquefied petroleum gases heating oils, and No. 5 and No. 6 fuel oils. This report provides Congress and the public with information on monthly national weighted average prices for refined petroleum products. The data published are the primary source of price data for refined products for the refining, reselling, and retailing sectors necessary for the Department of Energy (DOE) to execute its role in monitoring prices. Inmore » addition, the data provide the information necessary for Congress, DOE, and the public to perform analyses and projections related to energy supplies, demands, and prices. Price data in this publication were collected from separate surveys. Average prices are derived from a survey of refiners, large resellers and/or retailers, and independent gas plant operators. Data from this monthly survey are available from July 1975. Average No. 2 heating oil prices were derived from a sample survey of refiners, resellers, and retailers who sell heating oil. The geographic coverage for this report is the 50 States and the District of Columbia.« less

Flexible Demand Management under Time-Varying Prices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, Yong

In this dissertation, the problem of flexible demand management under time-varying prices is studied. This generic problem has many applications, which usually have multiple periods in which decisions on satisfying demand need to be made, and prices in these periods are time-varying. Examples of such applications include multi-period procurement problem, operating room scheduling, and user-end demand scheduling in the Smart Grid, where the last application is used as the main motivating story throughout the dissertation. The current grid is experiencing an upgrade with lots of new designs. What is of particular interest is the idea of passing time-varying prices that reflect electricity market conditions to end users as incentives for load shifting. One key component, consequently, is the demand management system at the user-end. The objective of the system is to find the optimal trade-off between cost saving and discomfort increment resulted from load shifting. In this dissertation, we approach this problem from the following aspects: (1) construct a generic model, solve for Pareto optimal solutions, and analyze the robust solution that optimizes the worst-case payoffs, (2) extend to a distribution-free model for multiple types of demand (appliances), for which an approximate dynamic programming (ADP) approach is developed, and (3) design other efficient algorithms for practical purposes of the flexible demand management system. We first construct a novel multi-objective flexible demand management model, in which there are a finite number of periods with time-varying prices, and demand arrives in each period. In each period, the decision maker chooses to either satisfy or defer outstanding demand to minimize costs and discomfort over a certain number of periods. We consider both the deterministic model, models with stochastic demand or prices, and when only partial information about the stochastic demand or prices is known. We first analyze the stochastic optimization problem when the objective is to minimize the expected total cost and discomfort, then since the decision maker is likely to be risk-averse, and she wants to protect herself from price spikes, we study the robust optimization problem to address the risk-aversion of the decision maker. We conduct numerical studies to evaluate the price of robustness. Next, we present a detailed model that manages multiple types of flexible demand in the absence of knowledge regarding the distributions of related stochastic processes. Specifically, we consider the case in which time-varying prices with general structures are offered to users, and an energy management system for each household makes optimal energy usage, storage, and trading decisions according to the preferences of users. Because of the uncertainties associated with electricity prices, local generation, and the arrival processes of demand, we formulate a stochastic dynamic programming model, and outline a novel and tractable ADP approach to overcome the curses of dimensionality. Then, we perform numerical studies, whose results demonstrate the effectiveness of the ADP approach. At last, we propose another approximation approach based on Q-learning. In addition, we also develop another decentralization-based heuristic. Both the Q-learning approach and the heuristic make necessary assumptions on the knowledge of information, and each of them has unique advantages. We conduct numerical studies on a testing problem. The simulation results show that both the Q-learning and the decentralization based heuristic approaches work well. Lastly, we conclude the paper with some discussions on future extension directions.

The association between attempted suicide and stock price movements: Evidence from Taiwan.

PubMed

Lin, Chung-Liang; Liu, Tsai-Ching; Chen, Chin-Shyan

2017-08-01

This study is the first comprehensive analysis to investigate the potential association between stock market fluctuations and attempted suicide events as measured by self-inflicted injuries treated in hospitalization. Using nationwide, 15-year population-based data from 1998 through 2012, we observe that the occurrences for the hospitalizations of attempted suicides are apparently predicted by stock price movements. A low stock price index, a daily fall in the stock index, and consecutive daily falls in the stock index have been shown to be associated with increased risk of hospitalization in patients with attempted suicide. More specifically, stock price index is found to be significant impact on attempted suicide in the 45-54 age groups of both genders, whilst daily change is significant for both genders in the 25-34 and 55-64 age groups and accumulated change is only significant in female aged 25-44 and above 65. On the basis of the results, relevant organizations should consider the suicidal factors that relate prime-working-age and near-retirement-age people to better carry out specific suicide prevention measures, and, meanwhile, encourage those people to pay less attention towards daily stock price movements. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

10 CFR 215.5 - Pricing and volume reports.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... 10 Energy 3 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Pricing and volume reports. 215.5 Section 215.5 Energy DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OIL COLLECTION OF FOREIGN OIL SUPPLY AGREEMENT INFORMATION § 215.5 Pricing and volume... change (including changes in the timing of collection) by the host government in official selling prices...

The Willingness to Pay for Vaccination against Tick-Borne Encephalitis and Implications for Public Health Policy: Evidence from Sweden.

PubMed

Slunge, Daniel

2015-01-01

The increasing incidence of tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) in Sweden and several other European countries has sparked a discussion about the need for a public vaccination strategy. However, TBE vaccination coverage is incomplete and there is little knowledge about the factors influencing vaccination behavior. Based on a survey of 1,500 randomly selected respondents in Sweden, we estimate vaccination coverage in areas with different TBE risk levels and analyze the role of vaccine price and other factors influencing the demand for vaccination. First, we find that the average rate of TBE vaccination in Sweden is 33% in TBE risk areas and 18% elsewhere. Income, age and risk-related factors such as incidence of TBE in the area of residence, frequency of visits to areas with TBE risk, and experience with tick bites are positively associated with demand for TBE vaccine. Next, using contingent valuation methodology, we estimate the willingness to pay for TBE vaccination among the unvaccinated respondents and the effect of a possible subsidy. Among the unvaccinated respondents in TBE risk areas, we estimate the mean willingness to pay for the recommended three doses of TBE vaccine to be 465 SEK (approximately 46 euros or 40% of the current market price). We project that a subsidy making TBE vaccines free of charge could increase the vaccination rate in TBE risk areas to around 78%, with a larger effect on low-income households, whose current vaccination rate is only 15% in risk areas. However, price is not the only factor affecting demand. We find significant effects on vaccination behavior associated with trust in vaccine recommendations, perceptions about tick bite-related health risks and knowledge about ticks and tick-borne diseases. Hence, increasing knowledge and trust, as well as ease of access to vaccinations, can also be important measures for public health agencies that want to increase the vaccination rate.

The Willingness to Pay for Vaccination against Tick-Borne Encephalitis and Implications for Public Health Policy: Evidence from Sweden

PubMed Central

Slunge, Daniel

2015-01-01

The increasing incidence of tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) in Sweden and several other European countries has sparked a discussion about the need for a public vaccination strategy. However, TBE vaccination coverage is incomplete and there is little knowledge about the factors influencing vaccination behavior. Based on a survey of 1,500 randomly selected respondents in Sweden, we estimate vaccination coverage in areas with different TBE risk levels and analyze the role of vaccine price and other factors influencing the demand for vaccination. First, we find that the average rate of TBE vaccination in Sweden is 33% in TBE risk areas and 18% elsewhere. Income, age and risk-related factors such as incidence of TBE in the area of residence, frequency of visits to areas with TBE risk, and experience with tick bites are positively associated with demand for TBE vaccine. Next, using contingent valuation methodology, we estimate the willingness to pay for TBE vaccination among the unvaccinated respondents and the effect of a possible subsidy. Among the unvaccinated respondents in TBE risk areas, we estimate the mean willingness to pay for the recommended three doses of TBE vaccine to be 465 SEK (approximately 46 euros or 40% of the current market price). We project that a subsidy making TBE vaccines free of charge could increase the vaccination rate in TBE risk areas to around 78%, with a larger effect on low-income households, whose current vaccination rate is only 15% in risk areas. However, price is not the only factor affecting demand. We find significant effects on vaccination behavior associated with trust in vaccine recommendations, perceptions about tick bite-related health risks and knowledge about ticks and tick-borne diseases. Hence, increasing knowledge and trust, as well as ease of access to vaccinations, can also be important measures for public health agencies that want to increase the vaccination rate. PMID:26641491

Associations of cycling with urban sprawl and the gasoline price.

PubMed

Rashad, Inas

2009-01-01

Determine the relationships between cycling and urban sprawl and between cycling and the gasoline price. Cross-sectional multivariate regression analyses using pooled data from two individual-level national surveys to analyze the effects of variations in levels of urban sprawl and the gasoline price on cycling as a form of physical activity. Metropolitan areas representative of the U.S. population, 1990 to 2001. Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System: 146,730 individuals at least 18-years-old in the United States; Nationwide Personal Transportation Survey: 73,903 individuals at least 18-years-old in the United States. Self-reported information on bicycling served as the dependent variable. Urban sprawl and the gasoline price served as key independent variables. Living in a metropolitan area with a lower degree of urban sprawl increased the probability of cycling in the past month by 3.4 to 4.4 percentage points and 1.6 to 2.1 percentage points from the means for men and women, respectively. Increasing the gasoline price by one dollar increased the probability of cycling by 4.3 to 4.7 percentage points and 2.9 to 3.5 percentage points for men and women, respectively. Results indicate that the prevalence of cycling is higher in less sprawling areas and areas with higher gasoline prices. More research is needed to refine results on how individuals respond to incentives and the roles that monetary and time costs play in improving public health.

An analysis of volumes, prices and pricing trends of the pediatric antiretroviral market in developing countries from 2004 to 2012.

PubMed

Lee, Janice Soo Fern; Sagaon Teyssier, Luis; Dongmo Nguimfack, Boniface; Collins, Intira Jeannie; Lallemant, Marc; Perriens, Joseph; Moatti, Jean-Paul

2016-03-15

The pediatric antiretroviral (ARV) market is poorly described in the literature, resulting in gaps in understanding treatment access. We analyzed the pediatric ARV market from 2004 to 2012 and assessed pricing trends and associated factors. Data on donor funded procurements of pediatric ARV formulations reported to the Global Price Reporting Mechanism database from 2004 to 2012 were analyzed. Outcomes of interest were the volume and mean price per patient-year ARV formulation based on WHO ARV dosing recommendations for a 10 kg child. Factors associated with the price of formulations were assessed using linear regression; potential predictors included: country income classification, geographical region, market segment (originator versus generic ARVs), and number of manufacturers per formulation. All analyses were adjusted for type of formulations (single, dual or triple fixed-dose combinations (FDCs)) Data from 111 countries from 2004 to 2012 were included, with procurement of 33 formulations at a total value of USD 204 million. Use of dual and triple FDC formulations increased substantially over time, but with limited changes in price. Upon multivariate analysis, prices of originator formulations were found to be on average 72 % higher than generics (p < 0.001). A 10 % increase in procurement volume was associated with a 1 % decrease (p < 0.001) in both originator and generic prices. The entry of one additional manufacturer producing a formulation was associated with a decrease in prices of 2 % (p < 0.001) and 8 % (p < 0.001) for originator and generic formulations, respectively. The mean generic ARV price did not differ by country income level. Prices of originator ARVs were 48 % (p < 0.001) and 14 % (p < 0.001) higher in upper-middle income and lower-middle income countries compared to low income countries respectively, with the exception of South Africa, which had lower prices despite being an upper-middle income country. The donor funded pediatric ARV market as represented by the GPRM database is small, and lacks price competition. It is dominated by generic drugs due to the lower prices offered and the practicality of FDC formulations. This market requires continued donor support and the current initiatives to protect it are important to ensure market viability, especially if new formulations are to be introduced in the future.

12 CFR 226.35 - Prohibited acts or practices in connection with higher-priced mortgage loans.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

..., and other loan pricing terms currently offered to consumers by a representative sample of creditors for mortgage transactions that have low-risk pricing characteristics. The Board publishes average... and premiums for mortgage-related insurance required by the creditor, such as insurance against loss...

12 CFR 327.9 - Assessment pricing methods.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... 12 Banks and Banking 5 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Assessment pricing methods. 327.9 Section 327.9... ASSESSMENTS In General § 327.9 Assessment pricing methods. (a) Small institutions—(1) Risk Categories. Each... unless effective corrective action is taken. (4) Financial ratios method. A small insured depository...

Environmental influences on risk taking among Hong Kong young dance partygoers.

PubMed

Ngai, Steven Sek-Yum; Ngai, Ngan-pun; Cheung, Chau-kiu

2006-01-01

This study investigates risk-taking behavior and its associated factors among young Hong Kong partygoers at rave parties or discos. Based on a survey of 300 14 to 28-year-old dance partygoers recruited by outreaching social workers, the study provides data on risks in terms of the likelihood of drug abuse, coitus, unprotected coitus, fighting, and high-speed driving among the young people. Furthermore, it examines factors related to the dance party, together with a set of background factors on the partygoer's report of the chance of engaging in risky behavior as expected in the coming six months. Factors related to the dance party include the location (Hong Kong and Mainland China), fees, number of partners, dancers, police inspection, drug supply, drug sales, injuries, coitus, fighting, drug abuse, and environmental factors. The environmental factors are the availability of first aid, fire extinguishing, and drinking water facilities, light and audio effects, ventilation, drug circulation, underage admission, sex partners, fighting, and low-price beer. Implications of present findings for social policy and future research are discussed.

10 CFR 215.5 - Pricing and volume reports.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 10 Energy 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Pricing and volume reports. 215.5 Section 215.5 Energy DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OIL COLLECTION OF FOREIGN OIL SUPPLY AGREEMENT INFORMATION § 215.5 Pricing and volume reports. To the extent not reported pursuant to § 215.3, any person lifting for export crude oil from a...

Implementing differential pricing for essential medicines via country-specific bilateral negotiated discounts.

PubMed

Tetteh, Ebenezer Kwabena

2009-01-01

It is widely acknowledged that limited access to essential medicines undermines efforts at improving the health and economic well-being of low-income populations. This has spurred on a number of solutions, including differential pricing based on the economics of price discrimination. A desirable feature of differential pricing is its potential ability to reconcile static and dynamic efficiency concerns. There are, however, various shades of differential pricing and this paper aims to evaluate their consistency with economic theory. Starting with the report of the workshop on 'Differential Pricing and Financing of Essential Drugs' held by secretariats of the World Trade Organization and WHO in Hosbjor, Norway, in 2001, this paper takes issue with how differential pricing has been defined as a tool for improving access to essential drug benefits. The paper notes that inadequate attention has been given to policies and institutional arrangements for creating, expressing and maintaining 'truly' price-elastic demands in low-income nations and for segmenting markets. In addition, considerations of equity and solidarity have distracted policy advocates from balancing conflicting, yet well intended, views and general rules. The paper argues why differential pricing should be implemented via country-specific bilateral negotiated discounts. It maintains that it is feasible to muster an environment conducive to profitable differential pricing whilst satisfying general rules and concerns about self-reliance, transparency, accountability, equity and solidarity.

The Impact of Policy Incentives on Long-Term Care Insurance and Medicaid Costs: Does Underwriting Matter?

PubMed

Cornell, Portia Y; Grabowski, David C

2018-05-16

To test whether underwriting modifies the effect of state-based incentives on individuals' purchase of long-term care insurance. Health and Retirement Study (HRS), 1996-2012. We estimated difference-in-difference regression models with an interaction of state policy indicators with individuals' probabilities of being approved for long-term care insurance. We imputed probabilities of underwriting approval for respondents in the HRS using a model developed with underwriting decisions from two U.S. insurance firms. We measured the elasticity response to long-term care insurance price using changes in simulated after-tax price as an instrumental variable for premium price. Tax incentives and Partnership programs increased insurance purchase by 3.62 percentage points and 1.8 percentage points, respectively, among those with the lowest risk (highest approval probability). Neither had any statistically significant effects among the highest risk individuals. We show that ignoring the effects of underwriting may lead to biased estimates of the potential state budget savings of long-term care insurance tax incentives. If the private market is to play a role in financing long-term care, policies need to address the underlying adverse selection problems. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

Allocating scarce financial resources for HIV treatment: benchmarking prices of antiretroviral medicines in Latin America.

PubMed

Wirtz, Veronika J; Santa-Ana-Tellez, Yared; Trout, Clinton H; Kaplan, Warren A

2012-12-01

Public sector price analyses of antiretroviral (ARV) medicines can provide relevant information to detect ARV procurement procedures that do not obtain competitive market prices. Price benchmarks provide a useful tool for programme managers and policy makers to support such planning and policy measures. The aim of the study was to develop regional and global price benchmarks which can be used to analyse public-sector price variability of ARVs in low- and middle-income countries using the procurement prices of Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) countries in 2008 as an example. We used the Global Price Reporting Mechanism (GPRM) data base, provided by the World Health Organization (WHO), for 13 LAC countries' ARV procurements to analyse the procurement prices of four first-line and three second-line ARV combinations in 2008. First, a cross-sectional analysis was conducted to compare ARV combination prices. Second, four different price 'benchmarks' were created and we estimated the additional number of patients who could have been treated in each country if the ARV combinations studied were purchased at the various reference ('benchmark') prices. Large price variations exist for first- and second-line ARV combinations between countries in the LAC region. Most countries in the LAC region could be treating between 1.17 and 3.8 times more patients if procurement prices were closer to the lowest regional generic price. For all second-line combinations, a price closer to the lowest regional innovator prices or to the global median transaction price for lower-middle-income countries would also result in treating up to nearly five times more patients. Some rational allocation of financial resources due, in part, to price benchmarking and careful planning by policy makers and programme managers can assist a country in negotiating lower ARV procurement prices and should form part of a sustainable procurement policy.

JPRS Report, Near East and South Asia, Pakistan

DTIC Science & Technology

1992-05-20

Ahmad: "The Price of Disparity" quotation marks as published] [Text] Was the separation of East Pakistan a product of conspiracy or a consequence of...which is based on trade rather than aid. In many ways we have forsaken aid and aim at self-reliance. Besides, the United States had increasing...to buy all her military equip- ment? [Answer] Military equipment is being sold at competi- tive prices by many countries of the world, especially

Racial and Ethnic Differences in What Smokers Report Paying for Their Cigarettes.

PubMed

Golden, Shelley D; Kong, Amanda Y; Ribisl, Kurt M

2016-07-01

Smoking rates and tobacco-related health problems vary by race and ethnicity. We explore whether cigarette prices, a determinant of tobacco use, differ across racial and ethnic groups, and whether consumer behaviors influence these differences. We used national Tobacco Use Supplement data from 23 299 adult smokers in the United States to calculate average reported cigarette pack prices for six racial and ethnic groups. Using multivariate regression models, we analyzed the independent effect of race and ethnicity on price, and whether these effects changed once indicators of carton purchasing, menthol use, Indian reservation purchase, and state market prices were incorporated. American Indians and whites pay similar amounts and report the lowest prices. Blacks, Hispanics, and Asians reported paying $0.42, $0.68, and $0.89 more for a pack of cigarettes than whites. After accounting for differences in consumer behaviors, these gaps shrunk to $0.27, $0.29, and $0.27, respectively, while American Indians paid $0.38 more than whites. Pack buying was associated with $0.99 higher per-pack prices than carton buying, which was most common among whites. Additionally, people who purchased off an Indian reservation reporting paying $1.54 more than those who purchased on reservation. Average reported cigarette prices vary by race and ethnicity, in part due to differences in product use and purchase location. Tobacco price policies, especially those that target low prices for multipack products or on Indian reservations may increase the prices paid by whites and American Indians, who smoke at the highest rates and pay the least per pack. This study examines differences in reported prices paid by different racial and ethnic groups, using recent, national data from the United States. Results indicating that racial and ethnic groups that smoke at the highest rates (American Indians and whites) also pay the least are consistent with evidence that price is a key factor in cigarette use. Additional analysis finds that cigarette purchasing behaviors, especially carton buying and purchasing on Indian reservations, partially account for the documented price differences, and suggest that policies focused on bulk purchases (carton, multipack) and reservation prices have strong tobacco control potential. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Factors that Influence the Price of Al, Cd, Co, Cu, Fe, Ni, Pb, Rare Earth Elements, and Zn

USGS Publications Warehouse

Papp, John F.; Bray, E. Lee; Edelstein, Daniel L.; Fenton, Michael D.; Guberman, David E.; Hedrick, James B.; Jorgenson, John D.; Kuck, Peter H.; Shedd, Kim B.; Tolcin, Amy C.

2008-01-01

This report is based on a presentation delivered at The 12th International Battery Materials Recycling Seminar, March 17-20, 2008, Fort Lauderdale, Fla., about the factors that influence prices for aluminum, cadmium, cobalt, copper, iron, lead, nickel, rare earth elements, and zinc. These are a diverse group of metals that are of interest to the battery recycling industry. Because the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) closely monitors, yet neither buys nor sells, metal commodities, it is an unbiased source of metal price information and analysis. The authors used information about these and other metals collected and published by the USGS (U.S. production, trade, stocks, and prices and world production) and internationally (consumption and stocks by country) from industry organizations, because metal markets are influenced by activities and events over the entire globe. Long-term prices in this report, represented by unit values, were adjusted to 1998 constant dollars to remove the effects of inflation. A previous USGS study in this subject area was 'Economic Drivers of Mineral Supply' by Lorie A. Wagner, Daniel E. Sullivan, and John L. Sznopek (USGS Open File Report 02-335). By seeking a common cause for common behavior of prices among the various metal commodities, the authors found that major factors that influence prices of metal commodities were international events such as wars and recessions, and national events such as the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991 and economic growth in China, which started its open door policy in the 1970s but did not have significant market impact until the 1990s. Metal commodity prices also responded to commodity-specific events such as tariff or usage changes or mine strikes. It is shown that the prices of aluminum, cadmium, copper, iron, lead, nickel, and zinc are at historic highs, that world stocks are at (or near) historic lows, and that China's consumption of these metals had increased substantially, making it the world's leading consumer of these metals.

The Questionable Economic Case for Value-Based Drug Pricing in Market Health Systems.

PubMed

Pauly, Mark V

2017-02-01

This article investigates the economic theory and interpretation of the concept of "value-based pricing" for new breakthrough drugs with no close substitutes in a context (such as the United States) in which a drug firm with market power sells its product to various buyers. The interpretation is different from that in a country that evaluates medicines for a single public health insurance plan or a set of heavily regulated plans. It is shown that there will not ordinarily be a single value-based price but rather a schedule of prices with different volumes of buyers at each price. Hence, it is incorrect to term a particular price the value-based price, or to argue that the profit-maximizing monopoly price is too high relative to some hypothesized value-based price. When effectiveness of treatment or value of health is heterogeneous, the profit-maximizing price can be higher than that associated with assumed values of quality-adjusted life-years. If the firm sets a price higher than the value-based price for a set of potential buyers, the optimal strategy of the buyers is to decline to purchase that drug. The profit-maximizing price will come closer to a unique value-based price if demand is less heterogeneous. Copyright © 2017 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Contract Source Selection: An Analysis of Lowest Price Technically Acceptable and Tradeoff Strategies

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-06-15

selection strategy is key to minimizing risk and ensuring best value for all stakeholders. On the basis of thorough market research , acquisition...administrative lead-time, Contractor Performance Assessment Reporting System ratings, and earned value management assessments) and source selection strategy ...Postgraduate School A. PURPOSE This research analyzes LPTA and tradeoff source selection strategies and contract outcomes to determine if a relationship

CHOOSING CONGESTION PRICING POLICY: CORDON TOLLS VS. LINK-BASED TOLLS. (R831450)

EPA Science Inventory

The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Concl...

Do state minimum markup/price laws work? Evidence from retail scanner data and TUS-CPS.

PubMed

Huang, Jidong; Chriqui, Jamie F; DeLong, Hillary; Mirza, Maryam; Diaz, Megan C; Chaloupka, Frank J

2016-10-01

Minimum markup/price laws (MPLs) have been proposed as an alternative non-tax pricing strategy to reduce tobacco use and access. However, the empirical evidence on the effectiveness of MPLs in increasing cigarette prices is very limited. This study aims to fill this critical gap by examining the association between MPLs and cigarette prices. State MPLs were compiled from primary legal research databases and were linked to cigarette prices constructed from the Nielsen retail scanner data and the self-reported cigarette prices from the Tobacco Use Supplement to the Current Population Survey. Multivariate regression analyses were conducted to examine the association between MPLs and the major components of MPLs and cigarette prices. The presence of MPLs was associated with higher cigarette prices. In addition, cigarette prices were higher, above and beyond the higher prices resulting from MPLs, in states that prohibit below-cost combination sales; do not allow any distributing party to use trade discounts to reduce the base cost of cigarettes; prohibit distributing parties from meeting the price of a competitor, and prohibit distributing below-cost coupons to the consumer. Moreover, states that had total markup rates >24% were associated with significantly higher cigarette prices. MPLs are an effective way to increase cigarette prices. The impact of MPLs can be further strengthened by imposing greater markup rates and by prohibiting coupon distribution, competitor price matching, and use of below-cost combination sales and trade discounts. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

The Impact of Food Prices on Consumption: A Systematic Review of Research on the Price Elasticity of Demand for Food

PubMed Central

Long, Michael W.; Brownell, Kelly D.

2010-01-01

In light of proposals to improve diets by shifting food prices, it is important to understand how price changes affect demand for various foods. We reviewed 160 studies on the price elasticity of demand for major food categories to assess mean elasticities by food category and variations in estimates by study design. Price elasticities for foods and nonalcoholic beverages ranged from 0.27 to 0.81 (absolute values), with food away from home, soft drinks, juice, and meats being most responsive to price changes (0.7–0.8). As an example, a 10% increase in soft drink prices should reduce consumption by 8% to 10%. Studies estimating price effects on substitutions from unhealthy to healthy food and price responsiveness among at-risk populations are particularly needed. PMID:20019319

The impact of food prices on consumption: a systematic review of research on the price elasticity of demand for food.

PubMed

Andreyeva, Tatiana; Long, Michael W; Brownell, Kelly D

2010-02-01

In light of proposals to improve diets by shifting food prices, it is important to understand how price changes affect demand for various foods. We reviewed 160 studies on the price elasticity of demand for major food categories to assess mean elasticities by food category and variations in estimates by study design. Price elasticities for foods and nonalcoholic beverages ranged from 0.27 to 0.81 (absolute values), with food away from home, soft drinks, juice, and meats being most responsive to price changes (0.7-0.8). As an example, a 10% increase in soft drink prices should reduce consumption by 8% to 10%. Studies estimating price effects on substitutions from unhealthy to healthy food and price responsiveness among at-risk populations are particularly needed.

Switching benefits and costs in the Irish health insurance market: an analysis of consumer surveys.

PubMed

Keegan, Conor; Teljeur, Conor; Turner, Brian; Thomas, Steve

2018-05-10

Relatively little analysis has taken place internationally on the consumer-reported benefits and costs to switching insurer in multi-payer health insurance markets. Ideally, consumers should be willing to switch out of consideration for price and quality and switching should be able to take place without incurring significant switching costs. Costs to switching come in many forms and understanding the nature of these costs is necessary if policy interventions to improve market competition are to be successful. This study utilises data from consumer surveys of the Irish health insurance market collected between 2009 and 2013 (N [Formula: see text] 1703) to examine consumer-reported benefits and costs to switching insurer. Probit regression models are specified to examine the relationship between consumer characteristics and reported switching costs, and switching behaviour, respectively. Overall evidence suggests that switchers in the Irish market mainly did so out of consideration for price. Transaction cost was the most common switching cost identified, reported by just under 1 in 7 non-switchers. Psychological switching costs may also be impacting behaviour. Moreover, high-risk individuals were more likely to experience switching costs and this was reflected in actual switching behaviour. A recent information campaign launched by the market regulator may prove beneficial in reducing perceived transaction costs in the market, however, a more focused campaign aimed at high-risk consumers may be necessary to reduce inequalities. Policy-makers should also consider the impact insurer behaviour may have on decision-making.

Estimating inpatient hospital prices from state administrative data and hospital financial reports.

PubMed

Levit, Katharine R; Friedman, Bernard; Wong, Herbert S

2013-10-01

To develop a tool for estimating hospital-specific inpatient prices for major payers. AHRQ Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project State Inpatient Databases and complete hospital financial reporting of revenues mandated in 10 states for 2006. Hospital discharge records and hospital financial information were merged to estimate revenue per stay by payer. Estimated prices were validated against other data sources. Hospital prices can be reasonably estimated for 10 geographically diverse states. All-payer price-to-charge ratios, an intermediate step in estimating prices, compare favorably to cost-to-charge ratios. Estimated prices also compare well with Medicare, MarketScan private insurance, and the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey prices for major payers, given limitations of each dataset. Public reporting of prices is a consumer resource in making decisions about health care treatment; for self-pay patients, they can provide leverage in negotiating discounts off of charges. Researchers can also use prices to increase understanding of the level and causes of price differentials among geographic areas. Prices by payer expand investigational tools available to study the interaction of inpatient hospital price setting among public and private payers--an important asset as the payer mix changes with the implementation of the Affordable Care Act. © Published 2013. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Sustainable Mining Land Use for Lignite Based Energy Projects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dudek, Michal; Krysa, Zbigniew

2017-12-01

This research aims to discuss complex lignite based energy projects economic viability and its impact on sustainable land use with respect to project risk and uncertainty, economics, optimisation (e.g. Lerchs and Grossmann) and importance of lignite as fuel that may be expressed in situ as deposit of energy. Sensitivity analysis and simulation consist of estimated variable land acquisition costs, geostatistics, 3D deposit block modelling, electricity price considered as project product price, power station efficiency and power station lignite processing unit cost, CO2 allowance costs, mining unit cost and also lignite availability treated as lignite reserves kriging estimation error. Investigated parameters have nonlinear influence on results so that economically viable amount of lignite in optimal pit varies having also nonlinear impact on land area required for mining operation.

Overview of external reference pricing systems in Europe

PubMed Central

Rémuzat, Cécile; Urbinati, Duccio; Mzoughi, Olfa; El Hammi, Emna; Belgaied, Wael; Toumi, Mondher

2015-01-01

Background and objectives External reference pricing (ERP) is a price regulation tool widely used by policy makers in the European Union (EU) Member States (MS) to contain drug cost, although in theory, it may contribute to modulate prices up and down. The objective of this article was to summarise and discuss the main findings of part of a large project conducted for the European Commission (‘External reference pricing of medicinal products: simulation-based considerations for cross-country coordination’; see www.ec.europa.eu/health/healthcare/docs/erp_reimbursement_medicinal_products_en.pdf) that aimed to provide an overview of ERP systems, both on processes and potential issues in 31 European countries (28 EU MS, Iceland, Norway, and Switzerland). Methods A systematic structured literature review was conducted to identify and characterise the use of ERP in the selected countries, to describe its impact on the prices of pharmaceuticals, and to discuss the possible cross-country coordination issues in EU MS. This research was complemented with a consultation of competent authorities’ and international organisations’ representatives to address the main issues or uncertainties identified through the literature review. Results All selected countries applied ERP, except the United Kingdom and Sweden. Twenty-three countries used ERP as the main systematic criterion for pricing. In the majority of European countries, ERP was based on legislated pricing rules with different levels of accuracy. ERP was applied either for all marketed drugs or for specific categories of medicines; it was mainly used for publicly reimbursed medicines. The number of reference countries included in the basket varied from 1 to 31. There was a great variation in the calculation methods used to compute the price; 15 countries used the average price, 7 countries used the lowest price, and 7 countries used other calculation methods. Reported limitations of ERP application included the lack of reliable sources of price information, price heterogeneity, exchange rate volatility, and hidden discounts. Spill-over effect and downward price convergence have often been mentioned as ERP's consequences leading to pricing strategies from pharmaceutical companies. Conclusion While ERP is widely used in Europe, processes and availability of price information vary from one country to another, thus limiting ERP implementation. Furthermore, ERP spill-over effect is a major concern of pharmaceutical firms leading to implementation of the so-called ‘launch sequence strategies’. PMID:27123181

Overview of external reference pricing systems in Europe.

PubMed

Rémuzat, Cécile; Urbinati, Duccio; Mzoughi, Olfa; El Hammi, Emna; Belgaied, Wael; Toumi, Mondher

2015-01-01

External reference pricing (ERP) is a price regulation tool widely used by policy makers in the European Union (EU) Member States (MS) to contain drug cost, although in theory, it may contribute to modulate prices up and down. The objective of this article was to summarise and discuss the main findings of part of a large project conducted for the European Commission ('External reference pricing of medicinal products: simulation-based considerations for cross-country coordination'; see www.ec.europa.eu/health/healthcare/docs/erp_reimbursement_medicinal_products_en.pdf) that aimed to provide an overview of ERP systems, both on processes and potential issues in 31 European countries (28 EU MS, Iceland, Norway, and Switzerland). A systematic structured literature review was conducted to identify and characterise the use of ERP in the selected countries, to describe its impact on the prices of pharmaceuticals, and to discuss the possible cross-country coordination issues in EU MS. This research was complemented with a consultation of competent authorities' and international organisations' representatives to address the main issues or uncertainties identified through the literature review. All selected countries applied ERP, except the United Kingdom and Sweden. Twenty-three countries used ERP as the main systematic criterion for pricing. In the majority of European countries, ERP was based on legislated pricing rules with different levels of accuracy. ERP was applied either for all marketed drugs or for specific categories of medicines; it was mainly used for publicly reimbursed medicines. The number of reference countries included in the basket varied from 1 to 31. There was a great variation in the calculation methods used to compute the price; 15 countries used the average price, 7 countries used the lowest price, and 7 countries used other calculation methods. Reported limitations of ERP application included the lack of reliable sources of price information, price heterogeneity, exchange rate volatility, and hidden discounts. Spill-over effect and downward price convergence have often been mentioned as ERP's consequences leading to pricing strategies from pharmaceutical companies. While ERP is widely used in Europe, processes and availability of price information vary from one country to another, thus limiting ERP implementation. Furthermore, ERP spill-over effect is a major concern of pharmaceutical firms leading to implementation of the so-called 'launch sequence strategies'.

Will the use of a carbon tax for revenue generation produce an incentive to continue carbon emissions?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Rong; Moreno-Cruz, Juan; Caldeira, Ken

2017-05-01

Integrated assessment models are commonly used to generate optimal carbon prices based on an objective function that maximizes social welfare. Such models typically project an initially low carbon price that increases with time. This framework does not reflect the incentives of decision makers who are responsible for generating tax revenue. If a rising carbon price is to result in near-zero emissions, it must ultimately result in near-zero carbon tax revenue. That means that at some point, policy makers will be asked to increase the tax rate on carbon emissions to such an extent that carbon tax revenue will fall. Therefore, there is a risk that the use of a carbon tax to generate revenue could eventually create a perverse incentive to continue carbon emissions in order to provide a continued stream of carbon tax revenue. Using the Dynamic Integrated Climate Economy (DICE) model, we provide evidence that this risk is not a concern for the immediate future but that a revenue-generating carbon tax could create this perverse incentive as time goes on. This incentive becomes perverse at about year 2085 under the default configuration of DICE, but the timing depends on a range of factors including the cost of climate damages and the cost of decarbonizing the global energy system. While our study is based on a schematic model, it highlights the importance of considering a broader spectrum of incentives in studies using more comprehensive integrated assessment models. Our study demonstrates that the use of a carbon tax for revenue generation could potentially motivate implementation of such a tax today, but this source of revenue generation risks motivating continued carbon emissions far into the future.

Linking the Price of Cancer Drug Treatments to Their Clinical Value.

PubMed

Gozzo, Lucia; Navarria, Andrea; Drago, Valentina; Longo, Laura; Mansueto, Silvana; Pignataro, Giacomo; Cicchetti, Americo; Salomone, Salvatore; Drago, Filippo

2016-07-01

Appropriate pricing of medications is one of the ultimate goals for decision makers, but reliable data on the risk/benefit ratio are often lacking when a Marketing Authorization Application is submitted. Here we propose a method to consistently evaluate price adequacy, which we applied to six anticancer medications approved in Italy in recent years. We obtained ratios of cost per survival per day (cost/survival/day) by dividing the total costs of evaluated medications for the median survival gain in days. Each cost/survival/day corresponds to a crude score, with 0 assigned to a cost/survival/day ≥€586. The maximum price considered as adequate was €91 cost/survival/day (score 75) while a score of 100 corresponded to a cost/survival/day ≤€11, based on the thresholds set by the British National Health System (NHS) and the "willingness-to-pay" of the Italian NHS. Crude scores were then adjusted using correction factors for efficacy, safety, quality of life, and prevalence of disease. None of the analyzed medications (abiraterone, afatinib, aflibercept, bevacizumab, dabrafenib, and ipilimumab) achieved a final score of 75, corresponding to adequate pricing. The final score for afatinib was the highest with 55 points. Prices of all the other drugs resulted in being inadequate, with negative final scores for bevacizumab, dabrafenib, and ipilimumab. This method may be considered a tool for the evaluation of appropriateness of price proposed at negotiation and could represent a reliable resource for decision-making. Furthermore, this analysis suggests that most recently approved cancer drugs in Italy do not fulfill price adequacy.

7 CFR 1000.50 - Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

..., rounded to the nearest cent, shall be the protein price per pound times 3.1 plus the other solids price... cents and multiplying the result by 0.99. (n) Protein price. The protein price per pound, rounded to the... one-hundredth cent, shall be the U.S. average NASS dry whey survey price reported by the Department...

16 CFR 640.6 - Rules of construction.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... credit to finance the purchase of an automobile. If the auto dealer is the person to whom the loan obligation is initially payable, such as where the auto dealer is the original creditor under a retail installment sales contract, the auto dealer must provide the risk-based pricing notice to the consumer (or...

16 CFR 640.6 - Rules of construction.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... credit to finance the purchase of an automobile. If the auto dealer is the person to whom the loan obligation is initially payable, such as where the auto dealer is the original creditor under a retail installment sales contract, the auto dealer must provide the risk-based pricing notice to the consumer (or...

16 CFR 640.6 - Rules of construction.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... credit to finance the purchase of an automobile. If the auto dealer is the person to whom the loan obligation is initially payable, such as where the auto dealer is the original creditor under a retail installment sales contract, the auto dealer must provide the risk-based pricing notice to the consumer (or...

16 CFR 640.6 - Rules of construction.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... credit to finance the purchase of an automobile. If the auto dealer is the person to whom the loan obligation is initially payable, such as where the auto dealer is the original creditor under a retail installment sales contract, the auto dealer must provide the risk-based pricing notice to the consumer (or...

77 FR 11345 - Harmonization of Compliance Obligations for Registered Investment Companies Required To Register...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-02-24

... his or her knowledge and belief, the information contained in the document is accurate and complete. The first item in the certification required by SEC Form N-CSR is: ``Based on my knowledge, this..., competitiveness and financial integrity of futures markets; (3) price discovery; (4) sound risk management...

42 CFR § 414.1420 - Other payer advanced APMs.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2017-10-01

... Merit-Based Incentive Payment System and Alternative Payment Model Incentive § 414.1420 Other payer... payment by the APM Entity to the payer. (2) Medicaid Medical Home Model financial risk standard. For an... APM benchmark, except for episode payment models, for which it is defined as the episode target price...

International drug price comparisons: quality assessment.

PubMed

Machado, Márcio; O'Brodovich, Ryan; Krahn, Murray; Einarson, Thomas R

2011-01-01

To quantitatively summarize results (i.e., prices and affordability) reported from international drug price comparison studies and assess their methodological quality. A systematic search of the most relevant databases-Medline, Embase, International Pharmaceutical Abstracts (IPA), and Scopus, from their inception to May 2009-was conducted to identify original research comparing international drug prices. International drug price information was extracted and recorded from accepted papers. Affordability was reported as drug prices adjusted for income. Study quality was assessed using six criteria: use of similar countries, use of a representative sample of drugs, selection of specific types of prices, identification of drug packaging, different weights on price indices, and the type of currency conversion used. Of the 1 828 studies identified, 21 were included. Only one study adequately addressed all quality issues. A large variation in study quality was observed due to the many methods used to conduct the drug price comparisons, such as different indices, economic parameters, price types, basket of drugs, and more. Thus, the quality of published studies was considered poor. Results varied across studies, but generally, higher income countries had higher drug prices. However, after adjusting drug prices for affordability, higher income countries had more affordable prices than lower income countries. Differences between drug prices and affordability in different countries were found. Low income countries reported less affordability of drugs, leaving room for potential problems with drug access, and consequently, a negative impact on health. The quality of the literature on this topic needs improvement.

Monthly petroleum product price report, November 1981

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1982-03-03

This report provides Congress and the public with information on monthly national weighted average prices for refined petroleum products (motor gasoline, diesel fuels, residual fuel oils, aviation fuels, kerosene, petrochemical feedstocks, heating oils, and liquefied petroleum gases). The data published are the primary source of price data for refined products for the refining, reselling, and retailing sectors necessary for the Department of Energy to execute its role in monitoring prices. In addition, the data provide the information necessary for Congress, DOE, and the public to perform analyses and projections related to energy supplies, demands, and prices. Price data in thismore » publication were collected from separate surveys. Average prices are derived from a survey of refiners, large resellers and/or retailers, and independent gas plant operators. Data from this monthly survey are available from July 1975. Average No. 2 heating oil prices were derived from a sample survey of refiners, resellers, and retailers who sell heating oil. The geographic coverage for this report is the 50 states and the District of Columbia.« less

Monthly petroleum product price report, December 1981

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1982-03-30

This report provides Congress and the public with information on monthly national weighted average prices for refined petroleum products (motor gasoline, diesel fuels, residual fuel oils, aviation fuels, kerosene, petrochemical feedstocks, heating oils, and liquefied petroleum gases). The data published are the primary source of price data for refined products for the refining, reselling, and retailing sectors necessary for the Department of Energy to execute its role in monitoring prices. In addition, the data provide the information necessary for Congress, DOE, and the public to perform analyses and projections related to energy supplies, demands, and prices. Price data in thismore » publication were collected from separate surveys. Average prices are derived from a survey of refiners, large resellers and/or retailers, and independent gas plant operators. Data from this monthly survey are available from July 1975. Average No. 2 heating oil prices were derived from a sample survey of refiners, resellers, and retailers who sell heating oil. The geographic coverage for this report is the 50 states and the District of Columbia.« less

Monthly petroleum-product price report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1982-07-01

This report provides Congress and the public with information on monthly national weighted average prices for refined petroleum products. the data published are the primary source of price data for refined products for the refining, reselling, and retailing sectors necessary for the Department of Energy (DOE) to execute its role in monitoring prices. In addition, the data provide the information necessary for Congress, DOE, and the public to perform analyses and projections related to energy supplies, demands, and prices. The legislative authority for this survey is the Federal Energy Administration Act of 1974 (PL 93-275). Price data in this publicationmore » were collected fronm separate surveys. Average prices are derived from a survey of refiners, large resellers and/or retailers, and independent gas plant operators. Data from this monthly survey are available from July 1975. Average No. 2 heating oil prices were derived from a sample survye of refiners, resellers, and retailers who sell heating oil. The geographic coverage for this report is the 50 states and the District of Columbia.« less

Preliminary Assessment of Spatial Competition in the Market for E85

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bentley Clinton

The Preliminary Assessment of Spatial Competition in the Market for E85 presentation and supplementary report from the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Renewable Energy Laboratory examine how the spacing of E85 fueling stations impacts E85 retail pricing. The analysis finds an inverse correlation between station density and E85 prices, with local competition putting downward pressure on E85 prices. A gas station with E85 whose nearest competitor is within a 0.5 mile radius is associated with a lower E85 price per gallon than an otherwise identical station with E85 whose nearest competitor is farther away. The analysis also finds a highermore » level of correlation between E85 and both E10 and wholesale gasoline prices than with ethanol costs. This indicates that E85 may, in fact, be priced with respect to its substitute fuel, and not based on the cost of its inputs. These findings help identify key trends and barriers in E85 markets and highlight data gaps that, if addressed, could help enable competitive E85 markets. The analysis was released in February 2017 and uses national and Minnesota-specific price data.« less

Preliminary Assessment of Spatial Competition in the Market for E85: Presentation Supplement

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Clinton, Bentley; Johnson, Caley; Moriarty, Kristi

The Preliminary Assessment of Spatial Competition in the Market for E85 presentation and supplementary report from the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Renewable Energy Laboratory examine how the spacing of E85 fueling stations impacts E85 retail pricing. The analysis finds an inverse correlation between station density and E85 prices, with local competition putting downward pressure on E85 prices. A gas station with E85 whose nearest competitor is within a 0.5 mile radius is associated with a lower E85 price per gallon than an otherwise identical station with E85 whose nearest competitor is farther away. The analysis also finds a highermore » level of correlation between E85 and both E10 and wholesale gasoline prices than with ethanol costs. This indicates that E85 may, in fact, be priced with respect to its substitute fuel, and not based on the cost of its inputs. These findings help identify key trends and barriers in E85 markets and highlight data gaps that, if addressed, could help enable competitive E85 markets. The analysis was released in February 2017 and uses national and Minnesota-specific price data.« less

Water contamination, land prices, and the statute of repose

Treesearch

John F. Chamblee; Carolyn A. Dehring; Craig A. Depken; Joseph R. Nicholson

2015-01-01

We examine how water contamination risk from an inactive hazardous waste site is capitalized into surrounding vacant land prices. After public knowledge of the first instance of off-site contamination, we find that shallow groundwater contamination potential is negatively capitalized into land prices, as is proximity to a known contaminated well. Public knowledge of...

12 CFR 966.8 - Conditions for issuance of consolidated obligations.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... placed with any Bank. (d) If a Bank participates in any CO denominated in a currency other than U.S. Dollars or linked to equity or commodity prices, then the Bank shall meet the following requirements: (1) The relevant foreign exchange, equity price or commodity price risks associated with the CO must be...

12 CFR 966.8 - Conditions for issuance of consolidated obligations.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... placed with any Bank. (d) If a Bank participates in any CO denominated in a currency other than U.S. Dollars or linked to equity or commodity prices, then the Bank shall meet the following requirements: (1) The relevant foreign exchange, equity price or commodity price risks associated with the CO must be...

State energy price and expenditure report 1994

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

1997-06-01

The State Energy Price and Expenditure Report (SEPER) presents energy price and expenditure estimates individually for the 50 States and the District of Columbia and in aggregate for the United States. The price and expenditure estimates developed in the State Energy Price and Expenditure Data System (SEPEDS) are provided by energy source and economic sector and are published for the years 1970 through 1994. Consumption estimates used to calculate expenditures and the documentation for those estimates are taken from the State Energy Data Report 1994, Consumption Estimates (SEDR), published in October 1996. Expenditures are calculated by multiplying the price estimatesmore » by the consumption estimates, which are adjusted to remove process fuel; intermediate petroleum products; and other consumption that has no direct fuel costs, i.e., hydroelectric, geothermal, wind, solar, and photovoltaic energy sources. Documentation is included describing the development of price estimates, data sources, and calculation methods. 316 tabs.« less

Impact of price and thickness on consumer selection of ribeye, sirloin, and top loin steaks.

PubMed

Leick, C M; Behrends, J M; Schmidt, T B; Schilling, M W

2012-05-01

Consumers (n=316) were recruited from college football picnickers to select ribeye, sirloin, and top loin steaks from 3 price groups based on thickness (n=10 steaks per price/type combination). Constant weight steaks were assigned to these groups: P1, thinnest, $19.80/kg ribeye and top loin, $10.99/kg sirloin; P2, average thickness, $22.00/kg ribeye and top loin, $13.19/kg sirloin; P3, thickest, $24.21/kg ribeye and top loin, $15.40/kg sirloin. Consumers selected 3 steaks per type and ranked selection criteria (price, color, marbling, thickness, texture). Percentage of steaks chosen from each price group did not differ (P>0.05), but consumers tended to select thinner ribeye steaks (P1 and P2) and thicker sirloin steaks (P2 and P3). Across all steak types, a greater number of consumers reported that marbling, color, and thickness were more important than price and visual texture. Data indicate that consumers may select steaks that display their preferred attributes, even if the steaks cost more. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Kernel-Correlated Levy Field Driven Forward Rate and Application to Derivative Pricing

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bo Lijun; Wang Yongjin; Yang Xuewei, E-mail: xwyangnk@yahoo.com.cn

2013-08-01

We propose a term structure of forward rates driven by a kernel-correlated Levy random field under the HJM framework. The kernel-correlated Levy random field is composed of a kernel-correlated Gaussian random field and a centered Poisson random measure. We shall give a criterion to preclude arbitrage under the risk-neutral pricing measure. As applications, an interest rate derivative with general payoff functional is priced under this pricing measure.

7 CFR 1427.3 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... reflect any lack of data for base quality to make the adjusted spot price comparable to a spot price assuming the base quality. If base quality spot price data are not available, spot prices for other... warehouses that have entered into a Cotton Storage Agreement with CCC. Current Far East shipment price means...

Techno-economic and uncertainty analysis of in situ and ex situ fast pyrolysis for biofuel production

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Boyan; Ou, Longwen; Dang, Qi

This study evaluates the techno-economic uncertainty in cost estimates for two emerging biorefinery technologies for biofuel production: in situ and ex situ catalytic pyrolysis. Stochastic simulations based on process and economic parameter distributions are applied to calculate biorefinery performance and production costs. The probability distributions for the minimum fuel-selling price (MFSP) indicate that in situ catalytic pyrolysis has an expected MFSP of $4.20 per gallon with a standard deviation of 1.15, while the ex situ catalytic pyrolysis has a similar MFSP with a smaller deviation ($4.27 per gallon and 0.79 respectively). These results suggest that a biorefinery based on exmore » situ catalytic pyrolysis could have a lower techno-economic risk than in situ pyrolysis despite a slightly higher MFSP cost estimate. Analysis of how each parameter affects the NPV indicates that internal rate of return, feedstock price, total project investment, electricity price, biochar yield and bio-oil yield are significant parameters which have substantial impact on the MFSP for both in situ and ex situ catalytic pyrolysis.« less

[Social medicine and healthcare economics. The framework for future forms of healthcare].

PubMed

Rebscher, Herbert

2008-05-01

In the political debate, even in academia, the concepts of "profitability" or "efficiency" are thrown around very robustly and freely with no regard for the players themselves. Economically speaking there can be no efficiency without a definition of targets in terms of outcomes and their level of quality. If even the government's Council of Economic Experts itself finds in its assessment of hospital funding that the "reform's target parameters - improving the profitability of service provision - have developed positively", but adds that "whether this also applies to the quality of services provided or to the realisation of healthcare outcomes remains to be seen due to the lack of evidence" [21], this indicates a one-sided and problematic curtailment of the concept even by highly competent bodies. Economic control of new forms of healthcare by means of prices and fees for clearly defined services is a complex problem that has not been dealt with adequately. All pricing is based on classification models aimed at ensuring cost and benefit clusters that are as homogeneous as possible. Classification models in healthcare as a basis for price control targets need constant adjusting to ensure accuracy of mapping and appropriateness to performance. A prerequisite for the methodology behind price control models of this kind is presupposing a responsible, rule-bound and criteria-based handling of "variance" and "coincidence" by means of risk-adjusted quality and price systems. They will define the character of a wide range of steering tools and have an effect that goes beyond the narrow formal confines of the sector. That is why the regulatory framework will need first and foremost to define a qualitative framework for the political "security infrastructure" by means of deregulated economic processes in which price control becomes accountable and is justified in terms of content.

New Hampshire's Stumpage and Roadside Prices: Characteristics and Trends

Treesearch

Susan B. Remington; Donald F. Dennis; Donald F. Dennis

1986-01-01

Reports average stumpage and roadside prices and their relative rates of change for timber and logs in New Hampshire for 1964 to 1983. Stumpage and roadside prices increased overall from 1964 to 1983. Roadside prices increased at a slower rate than stumpage prices. Real sawtimber prices increased for all species except hemlock during the period. Red oak prices...

Changes in Pricing Behavior during the 1980s: An Analysis of Selected Case Studies.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

St. John, Edward P.

1992-01-01

Reports on changes in pricing decisions at public and private colleges in a low-cost and a high-cost state in the 1980s. Five liberal arts colleges studied used several pricing strategies: "elite" pricing strategy; "prestige" pricing strategy; and price reduction strategy. Study found multiple causes for price increases, more sophisticated pricing…

Minerals Price Increases and Volatility: Causes and Consequences

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-10-03

goods , used to make final products, rose 8%. Both rates are triple those at this time [in 2007].8 A 2008 report for Lehman Brothers, a New York-based...products, which are the most widely used intermediate goods produced from iron ore (all ferrous scrap was originally processed from iron ore). Some...prices, even though demand for final goods using steel products was not nearly so robust. The clearest example is in sheet steel, which, in the first

Longitudinal trends in gasoline price and physical activity: The CARDIA study

PubMed Central

Hou, Ningqi; Popkin, Barry M; Jacobs, David R; Song, Yan; Guilkey, David K; He, Ka; Lewis, Cora E.; Gordon-Larsen, Penny

2011-01-01

Objective To investigate longitudinal associations between community-level gasoline price and physical activity (PA). Method In the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults study, 5,115 black and white participants aged 18–30 at baseline 1985–86 were recruited from four U.S. cities (Birmingham, Chicago, Minneapolis and Oakland) and followed over time. We used data from 3 follow-up exams: 1992–93, 1995–96, and 2000–01, when the participants were located across 48 states. From questionnaire data, a total PA score was summarized in exercise units (EU) based on intensity and frequency of 13 PA categories. Using Geographic Information Systems, participants’ residential locations were linked to county-level inflation-adjusted gasoline price data collected by the Council for Community & Economic Research. We used a random-effect longitudinal regression model to examine associations between time-varying gasoline price and time-varying PA, controlling for age, race, gender, baseline study center, and time-varying education, marital status, household income, county cost of living, county bus fare, census block-group poverty, and urbanicity. Results Holding all control variables constant, a 25-cent increase in inflation-adjusted gasoline price was significantly associated with an increase of 9.9 EU in total PA (95%CI: 0.8–19.1). Conclusion Rising prices of gasoline may be associated with an unintended increase in leisure PA. PMID:21338621

Weighted south-wide average pulpwood prices

Treesearch

James E. Granskog; Kevin D. Growther

1991-01-01

Weighted average prices provide a more accurate representation of regional pulpwood price trends when production volumes valy widely by state. Unweighted South-wide average delivered prices for pulpwood, as reported by Timber Mart-South, were compared to average annual prices weighted by each state's pulpwood production from 1977 to 1986. Weighted average prices...

The effect of information on household water and energy use

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hans, Liesel

Water and Energy Utilities are faced with growing demand at a time when supply expansion is increasingly costly, inconsistent and taxing on the environment. Given that supply expansion is limited, to meet future needs utilities need demand-side management policies to result in more reliable and consistent consumer responsiveness. Currently, most households do not have access to the level or type of information needed to respond to price signals in a reliable and effective way. Advanced information technology solutions exist and are being increasingly adopted, but we need to know more about how the informational setting affects decision-making, consumption levels and price responsiveness. This research analyzes the effect of information on household water and energy consumption, which is a decision-making environment characterized by uncertainty and imperfect information. This study also analyzes additional complexities stemming from infrequent billing, non-linear pricing structures, and combined utility bills, each of which may dampen price signals. I first develop a theoretical model of decision-making under uncertainty. I use this model to illustrate the effect of more frequent information, which eliminates uncertainty about past decisions, on remaining decisions within the billing period. The model emphasizes the role of risk preferences and the realization of the uncertain quantity. On average, risk averse consumers will increase consumption when uncertainty is reduced; risk seeking consumers will do the opposite. Introduction of a non-linear rate structure induces behavior that makes individuals appear as if they are risk averse or risk seeking, despite their actual risk preferences. This model highlights the importance of modeling multiple decisions within a billing period and accounting for a spectrum of risk preferences. In Chapter 3, I create a computerized laboratory experiment designed to generate data used to test some of the hypotheses formulated in the theoretical model presented in Chapter 2. Results from the experiment show that, on average, individuals consume more when provided with more frequent information that resolves uncertainty about past decisions made within a single billing period. This result is driven by the fact that the majority of participants are risk averse or risk neutral. Risk seeking participants instead reduce use when facing less uncertainty. Also as predicted by the theoretical model in Chapter 2, combining behavior driven by risk preferences with the presence of an increasing block rate structure results in behavior that looks like consumers are targeting the block boundary. This experiment shows that providing more information may not lead to reduced use without other incentives, goal-setting, or mechanisms designed to help individuals process the information. In Chapter 4, I empirically analyze a ten-year household-level panel data set of monthly utility bills. A single utility provides electricity, natural gas and water services to its customers and therefore bills through a single utility bill. I first show that price responsiveness varies by the number and combination of services subscribed to by a given household. Second, through a price salience model I show that households are more responsive to the price of water when the water portion of the total bill is greater. When multiple services are contained on a single bill, the salience of any individual price signal is dampened. This study confirms that households are inelastic though not unresponsive to water prices. In order to make pricing policies more effective, utilities need to acknowledge that households may be responding to total utility costs (i.e., may respond to a high utility bill by reducing electricity use despite the true driver of the high bill) and will need to find ways to make quantity and price information more salient to their customers. Chapter 5 concludes this dissertation by summarizing the contributions of the research and possible extensions for future work. By improving the informational environment surrounding household water and energy use, there will be great capacity for households to use water and energy more efficiently and ultimately make choices that reduce residential water/energy consumption and yield benefits for customers, utilities, and the environment.

Allowance market pricing indicators

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Miller, R.W.

1995-12-31

Regardless of whether buyers and sellers rely on one allowance price indicator or a combination of several, the publication of price indicators has facilitated trading in the SO{sub 2} allowance market. Buyers and sellers feel more comfortable with a price benchmark against which to measure their actions; liquidity has increased; and transactions are easier to conclude. At this market`s present stage of development, five price indicators are worthy of discussion: EPA Allowance Auctions; Compliance Strategies Review`s EATX; Utility Environment Report`s price range; Cantor Fitzgerald`s Allowance Price Indicators; and Emissions Exchange Corporation`s Exchange Values. But experience in other markets indicates thatmore » (1) others will be created as the market develops, and (2) all published price indicators will tend to converge as time passes.« less

Relative Pricing of Publicly Traded U.S. Electric Utility Companies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jewczyn, Nicholas Stephen

In the financial turmoil of 2008, U.S. firms reported debt-ratios that differed from the debt-ratios calculated from balance sheets. The problem is that investors bought common stock expecting initial investment return and lost money when companies delisted. The purpose of this quantitative study was to determine sample securities pricing with the application of synthetic assets and debt accrued. Addressed in the research questions was whether those securities were (a) underpriced compared with return-on-assets (ROA), (b) overpriced compared with ROA, (c) a debt-ratio higher than 60% and also overpriced, (d) underpriced with a synthetic asset added, or (e) related by relative pricing to variant pricing and market capitalization. The study's base theory was Pan's efficient market hypothesis (EMH) of security price prediction of market prices versus model prices. The data from the financial statements of 16 publicly traded U.S. electric utility companies were analyzed via correlations and multiple regression analyses to determine securities pricing and suitability. The findings from the analyses of the sample's variables of market price, book value, market-to-book, and study constructed variables from those variable data were statistically significant. The alternate hypotheses were accepted for all 5 research questions since the analytical operationalization of the hypothetical constructs led to significant relationships. Results suggest that the use of more pricing determinants in securities evaluation may lead to investors losing less money and earning the expected returns for a more efficient capital market, leading to a stronger economy and macroeconomic stability.

How low are hardwood lumber prices in real terms?

Treesearch

William Luppold

2012-01-01

Prices for grade hardwood lumber have remained stubbornly low for several years. But, just how low are lumber prices? While prices reported by Hardwood Market Report for #1C lumber in most Appalachian species have increased since the summer of 2009 low point, with the exception of yellow-poplar, they are 3 to 50 percent lower than they were in the fall of 2005. The...

Multifactor valuation models of energy futures and options on futures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bertus, Mark J.

The intent of this dissertation is to investigate continuous time pricing models for commodity derivative contracts that consider mean reversion. The motivation for pricing commodity futures and option on futures contracts leads to improved practical risk management techniques in markets where uncertainty is increasing. In the dissertation closed-form solutions to mean reverting one-factor, two-factor, three-factor Brownian motions are developed for futures contracts. These solutions are obtained through risk neutral pricing methods that yield tractable expressions for futures prices, which are linear in the state variables, hence making them attractive for estimation. These functions, however, are expressed in terms of latent variables (i.e. spot prices, convenience yield) which complicate the estimation of the futures pricing equation. To address this complication a discussion on Dynamic factor analysis is given. This procedure documents latent variables using a Kalman filter and illustrations show how this technique may be used for the analysis. In addition, to the futures contracts closed form solutions for two option models are obtained. Solutions to the one- and two-factor models are tailored solutions of the Black-Scholes pricing model. Furthermore, since these contracts are written on the futures contracts, they too are influenced by the same underlying parameters of the state variables used to price the futures contracts. To conclude, the analysis finishes with an investigation of commodity futures options that incorporate random discrete jumps.

Evaluation of Subcontract Price Proposals

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-04-09

This is the final report on the Audit of the Evaluation of Subcontract Price Proposals. Comments on a draft of this report were considered in...preparing the final report. We made the audit from October 1987 through May 198% The initial objectives of the audit were to evaluate procedures used by...assist audit reports were used by procurement contracting officers in negotiating contract prices. During the audit , we expanded our objectives to

Big data privacy protection model based on multi-level trusted system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Nan; Liu, Zehua; Han, Hongfeng

2018-05-01

This paper introduces and inherit the multi-level trusted system model that solves the Trojan virus by encrypting the privacy of user data, and achieve the principle: "not to read the high priority hierarchy, not to write the hierarchy with low priority". Thus ensuring that the low-priority data privacy leak does not affect the disclosure of high-priority data privacy. This paper inherits the multi-level trustworthy system model of Trojan horse and divides seven different risk levels. The priority level 1˜7 represent the low to high value of user data privacy, and realize seven kinds of encryption with different execution efficiency Algorithm, the higher the priority, the greater the value of user data privacy, at the expense of efficiency under the premise of choosing a more encrypted encryption algorithm to ensure data security. For enterprises, the price point is determined by the unit equipment users to decide the length of time. The higher the risk sub-group algorithm, the longer the encryption time. The model assumes that users prefer the lower priority encryption algorithm to ensure efficiency. This paper proposes a privacy cost model for each of the seven risk subgroups. Among them, the higher the privacy cost, the higher the priority of the risk sub-group, the higher the price the user needs to pay to ensure the privacy of the data. Furthermore, by introducing the existing pricing model of economics and the human traffic model proposed by this paper and fluctuating with the market demand, this paper improves the price of unit products when the market demand is low. On the other hand, when the market demand increases, the profit of the enterprise will be guaranteed under the guidance of the government by reducing the price per unit of product. Then, this paper introduces the dynamic factors of consumers' mood and age to optimize. At the same time, seven algorithms are selected from symmetric and asymmetric encryption algorithms to define the enterprise costs at different levels. Therefore, the proposed model solves the continuous influence caused by cascading events and ensures that the disclosure of low-level data privacy of users does not affect the high-level data privacy, thus greatly improving the safety of the private information of user.

Cost-effectiveness of amlodipine compared with valsartan in preventing stroke and myocardial infarction among hypertensive patients in Taiwan.

PubMed

Chan, Lung; Chen, Chen-Huan; Hwang, Juey-Jen; Yeh, San-Jou; Shyu, Kou-Gi; Lin, Ruey-Tay; Li, Yi-Heng; Liu, Larry Z; Li, Jim Z; Shau, Wen-Yi; Weng, Te-Chang

2016-01-01

Hypertension is a major risk factor for strokes and myocardial infarction (MI). Given its effectiveness and safety profile, the calcium channel blocker amlodipine is among the most frequently prescribed antihypertensive drugs. This analysis was conducted to determine the costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) associated with the use of amlodipine and valsartan, an angiotensin II receptor blocker, in preventing stroke and MI in Taiwanese hypertensive patients. A state transition (Markov) model was developed to compare the 5-year costs and QALYs for amlodipine and valsartan. Effectiveness data were based on the NAGOYA HEART Study, local studies, and a published meta-analysis. Utility data and costs of MI and stroke were retrieved from the published literature. Medical costs were based on the literature and inflated to 2011 prices; drug costs were based on National Health Insurance prices in 2014. A 3% discount rate was used for costs and QALYs and a third-party payer perspective adopted. One-way sensitivity and scenario analyses were conducted. Compared with valsartan, amlodipine was associated with cost savings of New Taiwan Dollars (NTD) 2,251 per patient per year: costs were NTD 4,296 and NTD 6,547 per patient per year for amlodipine and valsartan users, respectively. Fewer cardiovascular events were reported in patients receiving amlodipine versus valsartan (342 vs 413 per 10,000 patients over 5 years, respectively). Amlodipine had a net gain of 58 QALYs versus valsartan per 10,000 patients over 5 years. Sensitivity analyses showed that the discount rate and cohort age had a larger effect on total cost and cost difference than on QALYs. However, amlodipine results were more favorable than valsartan irrespective of discount rate or cohort age. When administered to Taiwanese patients for hypertension control, amlodipine was associated with lower cost and more QALYs compared with valsartan due to a lower risk of stroke and MI events.

Decision-tree model for health economic comparison of two long-acting somatostatin receptor ligand devices in France, Germany, and the UK.

PubMed

Marty, Rémi; Roze, Stéphane; Kurth, Hannah

2012-01-01

Long-acting somatostatin receptor ligands (SRL) with product-specific formulation and means of administration are injected periodically in patients with acromegaly and neuroendocrine tumors. A simple decision-tree model aimed at comparing cost savings with ready-to-use Somatuline Autogel(®) (lanreotide) and Sandostatin LAR(®) (octreotide) for the UK, France, and Germany. The drivers of cost savings studied were the reduction of time to administer as well as a reduced baseline risk of clogging during product administration reported for Somatuline Autogel(®). The decision-tree model assumed two settings for SRL administration, ie, by either hospital-based or community-based nurses. In the case of clogging, the first dose was assumed to be lost and a second injection performed. Successful injection depended on the probability of clogging. Direct medical costs were included. A set of scenarios were run, varying the cost drivers, such as the baseline risk of clogging, SRL administration time, and percentage of patients injected during a hospital stay. Costs per successful injection were less for Somatuline Autogel(®)/Depot, ranging from Euros (EUR) 13-45, EUR 52-108, and EUR 127-151, respectively, for France, Germany, and the UK. The prices for both long-acting SRL were the same in France, and cost savings came to 100% from differences other than drug prices. For Germany and the UK, the proportion of savings due to less clogging and shorter administration time was estimated to be around 32% and 20%, respectively. Based on low and high country-specific patient cohort size estimations of individuals eligible for SRL treatment among the patient population with acromegaly and neuroendocrine tumors, annual savings were estimated to be up to EUR 2,000,000 for France, EUR 6,000,000 for Germany, and EUR 7,000,000 for the UK. This model suggests that increasing usage of the Somatuline device for injection of SRL might lead to substantial savings for health care providers across Europe.

Effects of beverage alcohol price and tax levels on drinking: a meta-analysis of 1003 estimates from 112 studies.

PubMed

Wagenaar, Alexander C; Salois, Matthew J; Komro, Kelli A

2009-02-01

We conducted a systematic review of studies examining relationships between measures of beverage alcohol tax or price levels and alcohol sales or self-reported drinking. A total of 112 studies of alcohol tax or price effects were found, containing 1003 estimates of the tax/price-consumption relationship. Studies included analyses of alternative outcome measures, varying subgroups of the population, several statistical models, and using different units of analysis. Multiple estimates were coded from each study, along with numerous study characteristics. Using reported estimates, standard errors, t-ratios, sample sizes and other statistics, we calculated the partial correlation for the relationship between alcohol price or tax and sales or drinking measures for each major model or subgroup reported within each study. Random-effects models were used to combine studies for inverse variance weighted overall estimates of the magnitude and significance of the relationship between alcohol tax/price and drinking. Simple means of reported elasticities are -0.46 for beer, -0.69 for wine and -0.80 for spirits. Meta-analytical results document the highly significant relationships (P < 0.001) between alcohol tax or price measures and indices of sales or consumption of alcohol (aggregate-level r = -0.17 for beer, -0.30 for wine, -0.29 for spirits and -0.44 for total alcohol). Price/tax also affects heavy drinking significantly (mean reported elasticity = -0.28, individual-level r = -0.01, P < 0.01), but the magnitude of effect is smaller than effects on overall drinking. A large literature establishes that beverage alcohol prices and taxes are related inversely to drinking. Effects are large compared to other prevention policies and programs. Public policies that raise prices of alcohol are an effective means to reduce drinking.

Ecuadorian Banana Farms Should Consider Organic Banana with Low Price Risks in Their Land-Use Portfolios

PubMed Central

Castro, Luz Maria; Calvas, Baltazar; Knoke, Thomas

2015-01-01

Organic farming is a more environmentally friendly form of land use than conventional agriculture. However, recent studies point out production tradeoffs that often prevent the adoption of such practices by farmers. Our study shows with the example of organic banana production in Ecuador that economic tradeoffs depend much on the approach of the analysis. We test, if organic banana should be included in economic land-use portfolios, which indicate how much of the land is provided for which type of land-use. We use time series data for productivity and prices over 30 years to compute the economic return (as annualized net present value) and its volatility (with standard deviation as risk measure) for eight crops to derive land-use portfolios for different levels of risk, which maximize economic return. We find that organic banana is included in land-use portfolios for almost every level of accepted risk with proportions from 1% to maximally 32%, even if the same high uncertainty as for conventional banana is simulated for organic banana. A more realistic, lower simulated price risk increased the proportion of organic banana substantially to up to 57% and increased annual economic returns by up to US$ 187 per ha. Under an assumed integration of both markets, for organic and conventional banana, simulated by an increased coefficient of correlation of economic return from organic and conventional banana (ρ up to +0.7), organic banana holds significant portions in the land-use portfolios tested only, if a low price risk of organic banana is considered. We conclude that uncertainty is a key issue for the adoption of organic banana. As historic data support a low price risk for organic banana compared to conventional banana, Ecuadorian farmers should consider organic banana as an advantageous land-use option in their land-use portfolios. PMID:25799506

Ecuadorian banana farms should consider organic banana with low price risks in their land-use portfolios.

PubMed

Castro, Luz Maria; Calvas, Baltazar; Knoke, Thomas

2015-01-01

Organic farming is a more environmentally friendly form of land use than conventional agriculture. However, recent studies point out production tradeoffs that often prevent the adoption of such practices by farmers. Our study shows with the example of organic banana production in Ecuador that economic tradeoffs depend much on the approach of the analysis. We test, if organic banana should be included in economic land-use portfolios, which indicate how much of the land is provided for which type of land-use. We use time series data for productivity and prices over 30 years to compute the economic return (as annualized net present value) and its volatility (with standard deviation as risk measure) for eight crops to derive land-use portfolios for different levels of risk, which maximize economic return. We find that organic banana is included in land-use portfolios for almost every level of accepted risk with proportions from 1% to maximally 32%, even if the same high uncertainty as for conventional banana is simulated for organic banana. A more realistic, lower simulated price risk increased the proportion of organic banana substantially to up to 57% and increased annual economic returns by up to US$ 187 per ha. Under an assumed integration of both markets, for organic and conventional banana, simulated by an increased coefficient of correlation of economic return from organic and conventional banana (ρ up to +0.7), organic banana holds significant portions in the land-use portfolios tested only, if a low price risk of organic banana is considered. We conclude that uncertainty is a key issue for the adoption of organic banana. As historic data support a low price risk for organic banana compared to conventional banana, Ecuadorian farmers should consider organic banana as an advantageous land-use option in their land-use portfolios.

Econometrics of exhaustible resource supply: a theory and an application. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Epple, D.; Hansen, L.P.

1981-12-01

An econometric model of US oil and natural gas discoveries is developed in this study. The econometric model is explicitly derived as the solution to the problem of maximizing the expected discounted after tax present value of revenues net of exploration, development, and production costs. The model contains equations representing producers' formation of price expectations and separate equations giving producers' optimal exploration decisions contingent on expected prices. A procedure is developed for imposing resource base constraints (e.g., ultimate recovery estimates based on geological analysis) when estimating the econometric model. The model is estimated using aggregate post-war data for the Unitedmore » States. Production from a given addition to proved reserves is assumed to follow a negative exponential path, and additions of proved reserves from a given discovery are assumed to follow a negative exponential path. Annual discoveries of oil and natural gas are estimated as latent variables. These latent variables are the endogenous variables in the econometric model of oil and natural gas discoveries. The model is estimated without resource base constraints. The model is also estimated imposing the mean oil and natural gas ultimate recovery estimates of the US Geological Survey. Simulations through the year 2020 are reported for various future price regimes.« less

FAS 33: accurately recording effects of changing prices.

PubMed

Sage, L G

1987-02-01

FAS 33 addresses the problem of distortion in conventional historical cost financial statements because of changing prices. It requires 1300 business enterprises to report selected changing price data on a supplementary basis. It has been demonstrated that it is also feasible and beneficial for hospitals to present price disclosures as supplementary information to their financial statements. The possible application of FAS 33 is supported on the basis that the accounting and reporting methods of healthcare institutions are similar to the accounting and reporting practices of profit-seeking entities.

Mood and the market: can press reports of investors' mood predict stock prices?

PubMed

Cohen-Charash, Yochi; Scherbaum, Charles A; Kammeyer-Mueller, John D; Staw, Barry M

2013-01-01

We examined whether press reports on the collective mood of investors can predict changes in stock prices. We collected data on the use of emotion words in newspaper reports on traders' affect, coded these emotion words according to their location on an affective circumplex in terms of pleasantness and activation level, and created indices of collective mood for each trading day. Then, by using time series analyses, we examined whether these mood indices, depicting investors' emotion on a given trading day, could predict the next day's opening price of the stock market. The strongest findings showed that activated pleasant mood predicted increases in NASDAQ prices, while activated unpleasant mood predicted decreases in NASDAQ prices. We conclude that both valence and activation levels of collective mood are important in predicting trend continuation in stock prices.

Mood and the Market: Can Press Reports of Investors' Mood Predict Stock Prices?

PubMed Central

Scherbaum, Charles A.; Kammeyer-Mueller, John D.

2013-01-01

We examined whether press reports on the collective mood of investors can predict changes in stock prices. We collected data on the use of emotion words in newspaper reports on traders' affect, coded these emotion words according to their location on an affective circumplex in terms of pleasantness and activation level, and created indices of collective mood for each trading day. Then, by using time series analyses, we examined whether these mood indices, depicting investors' emotion on a given trading day, could predict the next day's opening price of the stock market. The strongest findings showed that activated pleasant mood predicted increases in NASDAQ prices, while activated unpleasant mood predicted decreases in NASDAQ prices. We conclude that both valence and activation levels of collective mood are important in predicting trend continuation in stock prices. PMID:24015202

Higher cigarette prices influence cigarette purchase patterns.

PubMed

Hyland, A; Bauer, J E; Li, Q; Abrams, S M; Higbee, C; Peppone, L; Cummings, K M

2005-04-01

To examine cigarette purchasing patterns of current smokers and to determine the effects of cigarette price on use of cheaper sources, discount/generic cigarettes, and coupons. Higher cigarette prices result in decreased cigarette consumption, but price sensitive smokers may seek lower priced or tax-free cigarette sources, especially if they are readily available. This price avoidance behaviour costs states excise tax money and dampens the health impact of higher cigarette prices. Telephone survey data from 3602 US smokers who were originally in the COMMIT (community intervention trial for smoking cessation) study were analysed to assess cigarette purchase patterns, use of discount/generic cigarettes, and use of coupons. 59% reported engaging in a high price avoidance strategy, including 34% who regularly purchase from a low or untaxed venue, 28% who smoke a discount/generic cigarette brand, and 18% who report using cigarette coupons more frequently that they did five years ago. The report of engaging in a price avoidance strategy was associated with living within 40 miles of a state or Indian reservation with lower cigarette excise taxes, higher average cigarette consumption, white, non-Hispanic race/ethnicity, and female sex. Data from this study indicate that most smokers are price sensitive and seek out measures to purchase less expensive cigarettes, which may decrease future cessation efforts.

Monthly petroleum product price report. [January 1981-January 1982

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Riner, C.

1982-01-01

This report provides information on monthly national weighted average prices for refined petroleum products. The data published are the primary source of price data for refined products for the refining, reselling, and retailing sectors necessary for the Department of Energy (DOE) to execute its role in monitoring prices. In addition, the data provide the information necessary for Congress, DOE, and the public to perform analyses and projections related to energy supplies, demands, and prices. Price data in this publication were collected from separate surveys. Average prices are derived from a survey of refiners, large resellers and/or retailers, and independent gasmore » plant operators. Data from this monthly survey are available from July 1975. Average No. 2 heating oil prices were derived from a sample survey of refiners, resellers, and retailers who sell heating oil. The geographic coverage for this report is the 50 states and the District of Columbia. Data are presented on the following: gasoline, No. 1 and No. 2 diesel fuels, No. 1 and No. 2 heating oils, residual fuel oil, aviation fuels, kerosene, and liquefied petroleum gases.« less

Monthly petroleum product price report. [January 1981-February 1982

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Riner, C.

1982-02-01

This report provides information on monthly national weighted average prices for refined petroleum products. The data published are the primary source of price data for refined products for the refining, reselling, and retailing sectors necessary for the Department of Energy (DOE) to execute its role in monitoring prices. In addition, the data provide the information necessary for Congress, DOE, and the public to perform analyses and projections related to energy supplies, demands, and prices. Price data in this publication were collected from separate surveys. Average prices are derived from a survey of refiners, large resellers and/or retailers, and independent gasmore » plant operators. Data from this monthly survey are available from July 1975. Average No. 2 heating oil prices were derived from a sample survey of refiners, resellers, and retailers who sell heating oil. The geographic coverage for this report is the 50 states and the District of Columbia. Data are presented on the following: gasoline, No. 1 and No. 2 diesel fuels, No. 1 and No. 2 heating oils, residual fuel oil, aviation fuels, kerosene, and liquefied petroleum gases.« less

76 FR 12887 - Wholesale Pork Reporting Negotiated Rulemaking Committee

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-03-09

... Livestock Mandatory Reporting (LMR) regulations to implement mandatory pork price reporting, as directed by... U.S.C. 561-570); the Mandatory Price Reporting Act of 2010 (Pub. L. 111-239); the Livestock...

Enhancing the comparability of costing methods: cross-country variability in the prices of non-traded inputs to health programmes

PubMed Central

Johns, Benjamin; Adam, Taghreed; Evans, David B

2006-01-01

Background National and international policy makers have been increasing their focus on developing strategies to enable poor countries achieve the millennium development goals. This requires information on the costs of different types of health interventions and the resources needed to scale them up, either singly or in combinations. Cost data also guides decisions about the most appropriate mix of interventions in different settings, in view of the increasing, but still limited, resources available to improve health. Many cost and cost-effectiveness studies include only the costs incurred at the point of delivery to beneficiaries, omitting those incurred at other levels of the system such as administration, media, training and overall management. The few studies that have measured them directly suggest that they can sometimes account for a substantial proportion of total costs, so that their omission can result in biased estimates of the resources needed to run a programme or the relative cost-effectiveness of different choices. However, prices of different inputs used in the production of health interventions can vary substantially within a country. Basing cost estimates on a single price observation runs the risk that the results are based on an outlier observation rather than the typical costs of the input. Methods We first explore the determinants of the observed variation in the prices of selected "non-traded" intermediate inputs to health programmes – printed matter and media advertising, and water and electricity – accounting for variation within and across countries. We then use the estimated relationship to impute average prices for countries where limited data are available with uncertainty intervals. Results Prices vary across countries with GDP per capita and a number of determinants of supply and demand. Media and printing were inelastic with respect to GDP per capita, with a positive correlation, while the utilities had a surprisingly negative relationship. All equations had relatively good fits with the data. Conclusion While the preferred option is to derive costs from a random sample of prices in each setting, this option is often not available to analysts. In this case, we suggest that the approach described in this paper could represent a better option than basing policy recommendations on results that are built on the basis of a single, or a few, price observations. PMID:16630364

Enhancing the comparability of costing methods: cross-country variability in the prices of non-traded inputs to health programmes.

PubMed

Johns, Benjamin; Adam, Taghreed; Evans, David B

2006-04-24

National and international policy makers have been increasing their focus on developing strategies to enable poor countries achieve the millennium development goals. This requires information on the costs of different types of health interventions and the resources needed to scale them up, either singly or in combinations. Cost data also guides decisions about the most appropriate mix of interventions in different settings, in view of the increasing, but still limited, resources available to improve health. Many cost and cost-effectiveness studies include only the costs incurred at the point of delivery to beneficiaries, omitting those incurred at other levels of the system such as administration, media, training and overall management. The few studies that have measured them directly suggest that they can sometimes account for a substantial proportion of total costs, so that their omission can result in biased estimates of the resources needed to run a programme or the relative cost-effectiveness of different choices. However, prices of different inputs used in the production of health interventions can vary substantially within a country. Basing cost estimates on a single price observation runs the risk that the results are based on an outlier observation rather than the typical costs of the input. We first explore the determinants of the observed variation in the prices of selected "non-traded" intermediate inputs to health programmes--printed matter and media advertising, and water and electricity--accounting for variation within and across countries. We then use the estimated relationship to impute average prices for countries where limited data are available with uncertainty intervals. Prices vary across countries with GDP per capita and a number of determinants of supply and demand. Media and printing were inelastic with respect to GDP per capita, with a positive correlation, while the utilities had a surprisingly negative relationship. All equations had relatively good fits with the data. While the preferred option is to derive costs from a random sample of prices in each setting, this option is often not available to analysts. In this case, we suggest that the approach described in this paper could represent a better option than basing policy recommendations on results that are built on the basis of a single, or a few, price observations.

Final Report on the Audit of Subcontract Prices on Firm-Fixed-Price Contracts Awarded to McDonnell Aircraft Company

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-12-03

This is our final report on the audit of Subcontract Prices on Firm-Fixed-Price Contracts Awarded to McDonnell Aircraft Company (MCAIR). The Contract Management Directorate made the audit from October 1989 through June 1990. The objective of the audit was to compare proposed and negotiated subcontract prices and determine reasons for significant variances. We also evaluated applicable internal control procedures. For a 6-month period ending December 1989, MCAIR issued 517 subcontracts valued at $679 million.

12 CFR 222.73 - Content, form, and timing of risk-based pricing notices.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... financing the purchase of an automobile from an auto dealer or other party that is not affiliated with the...)(4), as applicable; or (ii) Arranges to have the auto dealer or other party provide a notice... maintains reasonable policies and procedures to verify that the auto dealer or other party provides such...

48 CFR 245.7309-2 - Condition and location of property.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... Quantity or Weight, and 245.7306-10, Risk of Loss, no request for adjustment in price or for rescission of... Contractor will load, then “where is” means f.o.b. conveyance at the point specified in the Invitation. (b) The description is based on the best available information. However, the Contractor makes no warranty...

48 CFR 1842.7201 - General.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... Management Reports, the NASA form 533 series, is required on cost-type, price redetermination, and fixed... implemented in the contract based on the estimated final contract value at the time of award. [62 FR 14017...

Cost and Price Collaboration

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-04-30

competitions and dual sourcing. [patrick.n.watkins4.civ@mail.mil] Abstract This paper examines how collaboration between the cost analysis and price ...analysis. A review of the CSDRs by the price analyst led to the conclusion that the level of detail in the CSDR between recurring and non -recurring hours...Reports (CSDRs) – Starting in 2004 renewed emphasis on contractually requiring CSDR – CSDRs report actual and non -recurring costs • Price Negotiation

48 CFR 219.202-5 - Data collection and reporting requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... historically black college and university/minority institution set-asides, divide the difference between the fair market price and the award price by the fair market price. (2) For price evaluation adjustment...

48 CFR 219.202-5 - Data collection and reporting requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... historically black college and university/minority institution set-asides, divide the difference between the fair market price and the award price by the fair market price. (2) For price evaluation adjustment...

48 CFR 219.202-5 - Data collection and reporting requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... historically black college and university/minority institution set-asides, divide the difference between the fair market price and the award price by the fair market price. (2) For price evaluation adjustment...

48 CFR 219.202-5 - Data collection and reporting requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... historically black college and university/minority institution set-asides, divide the difference between the fair market price and the award price by the fair market price. (2) For price evaluation adjustment...

48 CFR 219.202-5 - Data collection and reporting requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... historically black college and university/minority institution set-asides, divide the difference between the fair market price and the award price by the fair market price. (2) For price evaluation adjustment...

Development of an evolutionary fuzzy expert system for estimating future behavior of stock price

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mehmanpazir, Farhad; Asadi, Shahrokh

2017-03-01

The stock market has always been an attractive area for researchers since no method has been found yet to predict the stock price behavior precisely. Due to its high rate of uncertainty and volatility, it carries a higher risk than any other investment area, thus the stock price behavior is difficult to simulation. This paper presents a "data mining-based evolutionary fuzzy expert system" (DEFES) approach to estimate the behavior of stock price. This tool is developed in seven-stage architecture. Data mining is used in three stages to reduce the complexity of the whole data space. The first stage, noise filtering, is used to make our raw data clean and smooth. Variable selection is second stage; we use stepwise regression analysis to choose the key variables been considered in the model. In the third stage, K-means is used to divide the data into sub-populations to decrease the effects of noise and rebate complexity of the patterns. At next stage, extraction of Mamdani type fuzzy rule-based system will be carried out for each cluster by means of genetic algorithm and evolutionary strategy. In the fifth stage, we use binary genetic algorithm to rule filtering to remove the redundant rules in order to solve over learning phenomenon. In the sixth stage, we utilize the genetic tuning process to slightly adjust the shape of the membership functions. Last stage is the testing performance of tool and adjusts parameters. This is the first study on using an approximate fuzzy rule base system and evolutionary strategy with the ability of extracting the whole knowledge base of fuzzy expert system for stock price forecasting problems. The superiority and applicability of DEFES are shown for International Business Machines Corporation and compared the outcome with the results of the other methods. Results with MAPE metric and Wilcoxon signed ranks test indicate that DEFES provides more accuracy and outperforms all previous methods, so it can be considered as a superior tool for stock price forecasting problems.

The Pricing of Information--A Search-Based Approach to Pricing an Online Search Service.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Boyle, Harry F.

1982-01-01

Describes innovative pricing structure consisting of low connect time fee, print fees, and search fees, offered by Chemical Abstracts Service (CAS) ONLINE--an online searching system used to locate chemical substances. Pricing options considered by CAS, the search-based pricing approach, and users' reactions to pricing structures are noted. (EJS)

Electricity Prices in a Competitive Environment: Marginal Cost Pricing

EIA Publications

1997-01-01

Presents the results of an analysis that focuses on two questions: (1) How are prices for competitive generation services likely to differ from regulated prices if competitive prices are based on marginal costs rather than regulated cost-of-service pricing? (2) What impacts will the competitive pricing of generation services (based on marginal costs) have on electricity consumption patterns, production costs, and the financial integrity of electricity suppliers?

The Effect of Forest Management Strategy on Carbon Storage and Revenue in Western Washington: A Probabilistic Simulation of Tradeoffs.

PubMed

Fischer, Paul W; Cullen, Alison C; Ettl, Gregory J

2017-01-01

The objectives of this study are to understand tradeoffs between forest carbon and timber values, and evaluate the impact of uncertainty in improved forest management (IFM) carbon offset projects to improve forest management decisions. The study uses probabilistic simulation of uncertainty in financial risk for three management scenarios (clearcutting in 45- and 65-year rotations and no harvest) under three carbon price schemes (historic voluntary market prices, cap and trade, and carbon prices set to equal net present value (NPV) from timber-oriented management). Uncertainty is modeled for value and amount of carbon credits and wood products, the accuracy of forest growth model forecasts, and four other variables relevant to American Carbon Registry methodology. Calculations use forest inventory data from a 1,740 ha forest in western Washington State, using the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) growth model. Sensitivity analysis shows that FVS model uncertainty contributes more than 70% to overall NPV variance, followed in importance by variability in inventory sample (3-14%), and short-term prices for timber products (8%), while variability in carbon credit price has little influence (1.1%). At regional average land-holding costs, a no-harvest management scenario would become revenue-positive at a carbon credit break-point price of $14.17/Mg carbon dioxide equivalent (CO 2 e). IFM carbon projects are associated with a greater chance of both large payouts and large losses to landowners. These results inform policymakers and forest owners of the carbon credit price necessary for IFM approaches to equal or better the business-as-usual strategy, while highlighting the magnitude of financial risk and reward through probabilistic simulation. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Essays in applied macroeconomics: Asymmetric price adjustment, exchange rate and treatment effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gu, Jingping

This dissertation consists of three essays. Chapter II examines the possible asymmetric response of gasoline prices to crude oil price changes using an error correction model with GARCH errors. Recent papers have looked at this issue. Some of these papers estimate a form of error correction model, but none of them accounts for autoregressive heteroskedasticity in estimation and testing for asymmetry and none of them takes the response of crude oil price into consideration. We find that time-varying volatility of gasoline price disturbances is an important feature of the data, and when we allow for asymmetric GARCH errors and investigate the system wide impulse response function, we find evidence of asymmetric adjustment to crude oil price changes in weekly retail gasoline prices. Chapter III discusses the relationship between fiscal deficit and exchange rate. Economic theory predicts that fiscal deficits can significantly affect real exchange rate movements, but existing empirical evidence reports only a weak impact of fiscal deficits on exchange rates. Based on US dollar-based real exchange rates in G5 countries and a flexible varying coefficient model, we show that the previously documented weak relationship between fiscal deficits and exchange rates may be the result of additive specifications, and that the relationship is stronger if we allow fiscal deficits to impact real exchange rates non-additively as well as nonlinearly. We find that the speed of exchange rate adjustment toward equilibrium depends on the state of the fiscal deficit; a fiscal contraction in the US can lead to less persistence in the deviation of exchange rates from fundamentals, and faster mean reversion to the equilibrium. Chapter IV proposes a kernel method to deal with the nonparametric regression model with only discrete covariates as regressors. This new approach is based on recently developed least squares cross-validation kernel smoothing method. It can not only automatically smooth the irrelevant variables out of the nonparametric regression model, but also avoid the problem of loss of efficiency related to the traditional nonparametric frequency-based method and the problem of misspecification based on parametric model.

Estimation of option-implied risk-neutral into real-world density by using calibration function

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bahaludin, Hafizah; Abdullah, Mimi Hafizah

2017-04-01

Option prices contain crucial information that can be used as a reflection of future development of an underlying assets' price. The main objective of this study is to extract the risk-neutral density (RND) and the risk-world density (RWD) of option prices. A volatility function technique is applied by using a fourth order polynomial interpolation to obtain the RNDs. Then, a calibration function is used to convert the RNDs into RWDs. There are two types of calibration function which are parametric and non-parametric calibrations. The density is extracted from the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) index options with a one month constant maturity from January 2009 until December 2015. The performance of RNDs and RWDs extracted are evaluated by using a density forecasting test. This study found out that the RWDs obtain can provide an accurate information regarding the price of the underlying asset in future compared to that of the RNDs. In addition, empirical evidence suggests that RWDs from a non-parametric calibration has a better accuracy than other densities.

Is There an Association between Gasoline Prices and Physical Activity? Evidence from American Time Use Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sen, Bisakha

2012-01-01

Obesity is epidemic in the United States, and there is an imperative need to identify policy tools that may help fight this epidemic. A recent paper in the economics literature finds an inverse relationship between gasoline prices and obesity risk--suggesting that increased gasoline prices via higher gasoline taxes may have the effect of reducing…

Household Food Insecurity and Mental Health Problems Among Adolescents: What Do Parents Report?

PubMed

Poole-Di Salvo, Elizabeth; Silver, Ellen J; Stein, Ruth E K

2016-01-01

To investigate whether adolescents living in households with food insecurity have poorer parent-reported mental health (MH) than peers. We analyzed cross-sectional data from ∼8600 adolescents who participated in the 2007 (8th grade) wave of the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study-Kindergarten. Household food insecurity (HFI) was assessed by parental report on the 18-item US Household Food Security Scale. Total Difficulties score >13 on the parent-reported Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ) indicated problems with adolescent MH. SDQ subscale scores (Emotional, Conduct, Hyperactivity, Peer Problems) were also calculated. Associations between HFI and MH were explored in bivariate and multivariable analyses. Interactions of HFI and gender and HFI and receipt of free/reduced-price school lunch were analyzed with regard to problems with MH. A total of 10.2% of adolescents lived with HFI; 11.2% had SDQ >13. Adolescents with HFI had higher rates of overall MH problems (28.7% vs 9.2%), emotional problems (21.6% vs 6.6%), conduct problems (26.5% vs 11.6%), hyperactivity (22.4% vs 11.3%), and peer problems (19.8% vs 8.6%) (all P < .01). After adjustment for confounders, the association between HFI and overall MH problems (odds ratio 2.3; 95% confidence interval 1.6-3.3) remained. Interactions of HFI and gender and HFI and free/reduced-price school lunch were not significant. HFI was associated with increased risk of parent-reported MH problems among both male and female adolescents. Free/reduced-price school lunch did not significantly alter this relationship. Effective interventions to promote MH and reduce HFI among adolescents are necessary. Copyright © 2016 Academic Pediatric Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Price adjustment clauses : report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-10-01

Price adjustment mechanisms exist to account for fluctuations in commodity or labor prices and have : been used for highway construction in 47 states. They are useful in stabilizing bid prices in times of : economic uncertainty and preventing default...

The Effects of Prices on Alcohol Use and its Consequences

PubMed Central

Xu, Xin; Chaloupka, Frank J.

2011-01-01

Over the past three decades, economists and others have devoted considerable effort to assessing the impact of alcoholic-beverage taxes and prices on alcohol consumption and its related adverse consequences. Federal and State excise taxes have increased only rarely and, when adjusted for inflation, have declined significantly over the years, as have overall prices for alcoholic beverages. Yet studies examining the effects of increases of monetary prices (e.g., through raising taxes) on alcohol consumption and a wide range of related behavioral and health problems have demonstrated that price increases for alcoholic beverages lead to reduced alcohol consumption, both in the general population and in certain high-risk populations, such as heavier drinkers or adolescents and young adults. These effects seem to be more pronounced in the long run than in the short run. Likewise, price increases can help reduce the risk for adverse consequences of alcohol consumption and abuse, including drinking and driving, alcohol-involved crimes, liver cirrhosis and other alcohol-related mortality, risky sexual behavior and its consequences, and poor school performance among youth. All of these findings indicate that increases in alcoholic-beverage taxes could be a highly effective option for reducing alcohol abuse and its consequences. PMID:22330223

The effect of price and production risks on optimal farm plans in Swiss dairy production considering 2 different milk quota systems.

PubMed

Briner, S; Finger, R

2013-04-01

The amount of milk produced on Swiss dairy farms is restricted by contracts between the farmers and their marketing agent. In the past, these contracts have been calculated on a yearly base. Due to a switch in agricultural policy, these yearly contracts are currently more and more replaced by contracts calculated on a monthly base. These new contracts are assumed to restrict the flexibility of farmers to react on changes in milk price as well as on changes in fodder availability. Thus, the contract design is expected to influence farmers' ability to cope with risks and, thus, to influence the farm's gross margin variability. Applying a bioeconomic whole-farm model, the effects of price and weather risk as well as different risk-management strategies on the gross margin and the variability of the gross margin in Swiss dairy production are assessed under the 2 contract designs. We consider both risk-neutral and risk-averse behavior of farmers in our study. Results show that gross margin is slightly higher under the yearly than under the monthly contract. Variability of gross margin is also higher under the yearly than under the monthly contract. If the farmer is assumed to be risk averse, under both contracts he can reduce the coefficient of variation of the gross margin by almost 20% at opportunity costs below 1% of the gross margin. To reduce variability of gross margin under both contracts the size of the feedstock needs to be increased. This increase, however, must be considerably higher under the monthly contract than under the yearly contract. An additional risk-management strategy under a monthly contract is an increase in the area used as intensive pasture to ensure fodder availability in years with unfavorable weather. Under the yearly contract, an increase in the area used as extensive pasture is shown to be more favorable because it increases the amount of direct payments the farmer will receive. Additional restrictions in farm management due to a monthly milk contract do not lead to a higher variation in gross margin. However, if a farmer agrees to a monthly contract, he needs to adapt his risk-management strategies. Furthermore, our results show that farmers have to be aware that they will need additional barn capacities to reduce variation in gross margin under a monthly milk contract. Copyright © 2013 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Preliminary Study on Bidding Price Ratio Pattern of Public Works in Taiwan - a Case Study of Bridges, Elevated Highways, Tunnels and Subways

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tseng, Paoshan; Wang, Hanhsiang; Chen, Pingfu; Yeh, Lihsu

2018-01-01

Commonly seen tender bid price information of the public works in Taiwan are the budget amount, floor price, awarding price and so on. The ratio of the awarding price to the floor price or budget price is the so-called bidding price ratio. This ratio is influenced by multifaceted factor interactions and is significant to decision making management in engineering projects. Low bidding price ratio may imply that the budget allocation by the tendering agency is inconsiderate or due to the improper market competition of low price bid rigging. High bidding price ratio in turn may indicate that the allocated budget is relatively low, bidder risks in increased contract execution uncertainty or even exclusive bidding scenario. Therefore, the correlation between the bidding price ratio and the aforementioned tender award information is the key issue of this study. This study gathered the tender information of the civil engineering projects in Taiwan within the past seven years. By performing statistical analysis and clustering the gathered data by bidding price ratio, this study investigated the influencing factors and regulations of bidding price ratio using data mining approach.

Improving Resource Allocation Decisions to Reduce the Risk of Terrorist Attacks on Passenger Rail Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-12-01

theory, passenger rail bombing , attacker-defender methodology 15. NUMBER OF PAGES 103 16. PRICE CODE 17. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF REPORT...bombers carried out a successful coordinated attack against the London mass transit system in July 2005. Three suicide bombings occurred on trains and...iron rods to make shrapnel. The precise timing indicates the terrorists themselves detonated their own devices. In March 2016, a suicide bomb

Valuation of Indonesian catastrophic earthquake bonds with generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution and Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) interest rate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gunardi, Setiawan, Ezra Putranda

2015-12-01

Indonesia is a country with high risk of earthquake, because of its position in the border of earth's tectonic plate. An earthquake could raise very high amount of damage, loss, and other economic impacts. So, Indonesia needs a mechanism for transferring the risk of earthquake from the government or the (reinsurance) company, as it could collect enough money for implementing the rehabilitation and reconstruction program. One of the mechanisms is by issuing catastrophe bond, `act-of-God bond', or simply CAT bond. A catastrophe bond issued by a special-purpose-vehicle (SPV) company, and then sold to the investor. The revenue from this transaction is joined with the money (premium) from the sponsor company and then invested in other product. If a catastrophe happened before the time-of-maturity, cash flow from the SPV to the investor will discounted or stopped, and the cash flow is paid to the sponsor company to compensate their loss because of this catastrophe event. When we consider the earthquake only, the amount of discounted cash flow could determine based on the earthquake's magnitude. A case study with Indonesian earthquake magnitude data show that the probability of maximum magnitude can model by generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. In pricing this catastrophe bond, we assumed stochastic interest rate that following the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) interest rate model. We develop formulas for pricing three types of catastrophe bond, namely zero coupon bonds, `coupon only at risk' bond, and `principal and coupon at risk' bond. Relationship between price of the catastrophe bond and CIR model's parameter, GEV's parameter, percentage of coupon, and discounted cash flow rule then explained via Monte Carlo simulation.

Potential Impact of Minimum Unit Pricing for Alcohol in Ireland: Evidence from the National Alcohol Diary Survey.

PubMed

Cousins, Gráinne; Mongan, Deirdre; Barry, Joe; Smyth, Bobby; Rackard, Marion; Long, Jean

2016-11-01

One of the main provisions of the Irish Public Health (Alcohol) Bill is the introduction of a minimum unit price (MUP) for alcohol in Ireland, set at €1.00/standard drink. We sought to identify who will be most affected by the introduction of a MUP, examining the relationship between harmful alcohol consumption, personal income, place of purchase and price paid for alcohol. A nationally representative survey of 3187 respondents aged 18-75 years, completing a diary of their previous week's alcohol consumption. The primary outcome was purchasing alcohol at <€1.00/standard drink; secondary outcome was purchasing alcohol at <€1.00/standard drink off-sales. Primary exposures were harmful alcohol consumption (AUDIT-C > 5), low personal annual income (<€20,000) and place of purchase (off- or- on-sales). One in seven respondents (14%) spent <€1.00/standard drink, with a median spend of 0.78/standard drink. High-risk drinkers (OR 1.56, 95% CI 1.09-2.23), men (OR 1.95, 95% CI 1.43-2.66), people on low income (OR 1.64, 95% CI 1.20-2.23) and those purchasing alcohol off-sales (OR 21.9, 95% CI 12.5-38.1) were most likely to report purchasing alcohol at <€1.00/standard drink. Forty-four per cent of alcohol consumed was purchased off-sales. Of those purchasing off-sales, 30% bought cheap alcohol. High-risk drinkers, men and those on low income were most likely to report paying < €1.00/standard drink off-sales. Heavy drinkers, men and those on low income seek out the cheapest alcohol. The introduction of a MUP in Ireland is likely to target those suffering the greatest harm, and reduce alcohol-attributable mortality in Ireland. Further prospective studies are needed to monitor consumption trends and associated harms following the introduction of minimum unit pricing of alcohol. © The Author 2016. Medical Council on Alcohol and Oxford University Press. All rights reserved.

Mid-term financial impact of animal welfare improvements in Dutch broiler production.

PubMed

Gocsik, E; Lansink, A G J M Oude; Saatkamp, H W

2013-12-01

This study used a stochastic bioeconomic simulation model to simulate the business and financial risk of different broiler production systems over a 5-yr period. Simulation analysis was conducted using the @Risk add-in in MS Excel. To compare the impact of different production systems on economic feasibility, 2 cases were considered. The first case focused on the economic feasibility of a completely new system, whereas the second examined economic feasibilities when a farm switches from a conventional to an animal welfare-improving production system. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to assess the key drivers of economic feasibility and to reveal systematic differences across production systems. The study shows that economic feasibility of systems with improved animal welfare predominantly depends on the price that farmers receive. Moreover, the study demonstrates the importance of the level and variation of the price premium for improved welfare, particularly in the first 5 yr after conversion. The economic feasibility of the production system increases with the level of welfare improvements for a sufficiently high price level for broiler meat and low volatility in producer prices. If this is not the case, however, risk attitudes of farmers become important as well as the use of potential risk management instruments.

Insuring the unknown.

PubMed

Parsons, C

2015-12-01

Uncertainty is the central element in insurance. This article examines how insurers evaluate and price risks that can present very high levels of uncertainty, and which many underwriters regard as especially hazardous in insurance terms. These are the risks associated with new medical devices, new pharmaceutical products and others substances for human consumption, such as food additives. Insurance is likely to be needed for these products both during their research and development phases, including insurance for clinical trials, and also once the device, drug or other substance gains approval and is in regular use.The article examines the types of insurance that are available to cover these risks, the organizations that provide insurance and how the insurance is organised. It discusses the basic principles that insurers use to price insurance before considering the difficulties presented by novel and complex risks generally. The article concludes with a description of the techniques that insurers employ to analyse and price the particular risks that are our subject and a discussion of how underwriters seek to overcome the special problems associated with them. © The Author(s) 2015.

Complex dynamics of a MC-MS pricing model for a risk-averse supply chain with after-sale investment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Junhai; Sun, Lijian

2015-09-01

In this paper, we investigate the pricing strategy of the manufacturers and that of a common retailer, including their after-sale investment in a risk-averse supply chain. As the demand is not always for sure, the supply chain follows Manufacturers Cooperating (MC) and Manufacturers Stackelberg (MS). The main objective of the paper is to investigate the influence of the decision parameters such as the after-sale investment, wholesale price adjustment speed and risk preference on the stability and utilities of the risk-averse supply chain. The dynamic phenomena, such as the bifurcation, chaos and sensitivity to initial values are analyzed with 2D-bifurcation diagrams, double largest Lyapunov exponent and basins of attraction. The study shows that the faster the adjustment speed is, the more profits the retailer can make, but on the other hand, it is no good to manufacturers. Risk tolerance levels (RM and RR) affect the utility of the manufacturers and that of the retailer differently. A feedback control method is used to control the chaos in the supply chain.

Buying Food on Sale: A Mixed Methods Study With Shoppers at an Urban Supermarket, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, 2010–2012

PubMed Central

Kumanyika, Shiriki K.; Stites, Shana D.; Singletary, S. Brook; Cooblall, Clarissa; DiSantis, Katherine Isselmann

2014-01-01

Introduction The obesity epidemic has drawn attention to food marketing practices that may increase the likelihood of caloric overconsumption and weight gain. We explored the associations of discounted prices on supermarket purchases of selected high-calorie foods (HCF) and more healthful, low-calorie foods (LCF) by a demographic group at high risk of obesity. Methods Our mixed methods design used electronic supermarket purchase data from 82 low-income (primarily African American female) shoppers for households with children and qualitative data from focus groups with demographically similar shoppers. Results In analyses of 6,493 food purchase transactions over 65 weeks, the odds of buying foods on sale versus at full price were higher for grain-based snacks, sweet snacks, and sugar-sweetened beverages (odds ratios: 6.6, 5.9, and 2.6, respectively; all P < .001) but not for savory snacks. The odds of buying foods on sale versus full price were not higher for any of any of the LCF (P ≥ .07). Without controlling for quantities purchased, we found that spending increased as percentage saved from the full price increased for all HCF and for fruits and vegetables (P ≤ .002). Focus group participants emphasized the lure of sale items and took advantage of sales to stock up. Conclusion Strategies that shift supermarket sales promotions from price reductions for HCF to price reductions for LCF might help prevent obesity by decreasing purchases of HCF. PMID:25188276

High prices for rare species can drive large populations extinct: the anthropogenic Allee effect revisited.

PubMed

Holden, Matthew H; McDonald-Madden, Eve

2017-09-21

Consumer demand for plant and animal products threatens many populations with extinction. The anthropogenic Allee effect (AAE) proposes that such extinctions can be caused by prices for wildlife products increasing with species rarity. This price-rarity relationship creates financial incentives to extract the last remaining individuals of a population, despite higher search and harvest costs. The AAE has become a standard approach for conceptualizing the threat of economic markets on endangered species. Despite its potential importance for conservation, AAE theory is based on a simple graphical model with limited analysis of possible population trajectories. By specifying a general class of functions for price-rarity relationships, we show that the classic theory can understate the risk of species extinction. AAE theory proposes that only populations below a critical Allee threshold will go extinct due to increasing price-rarity relationships. Our analysis shows that this threshold can be much higher than the original theory suggests, depending on initial harvest effort. More alarmingly, even species with population sizes above this Allee threshold, for which AAE predicts persistence, can be destined to extinction. Introducing even a minimum price for harvested individuals, close to zero, can cause large populations to cross the classic anthropogenic Allee threshold on a trajectory towards extinction. These results suggest that traditional AAE theory may give a false sense of security when managing large harvested populations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Buying food on sale: a mixed methods study with shoppers at an urban supermarket, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, 2010-2012.

PubMed

Phipps, Etienne J; Kumanyika, Shiriki K; Stites, Shana D; Singletary, S Brook; Cooblall, Clarissa; DiSantis, Katherine Isselmann

2014-09-04

The obesity epidemic has drawn attention to food marketing practices that may increase the likelihood of caloric overconsumption and weight gain. We explored the associations of discounted prices on supermarket purchases of selected high-calorie foods (HCF) and more healthful, low-calorie foods (LCF) by a demographic group at high risk of obesity. Our mixed methods design used electronic supermarket purchase data from 82 low-income (primarily African American female) shoppers for households with children and qualitative data from focus groups with demographically similar shoppers. In analyses of 6,493 food purchase transactions over 65 weeks, the odds of buying foods on sale versus at full price were higher for grain-based snacks, sweet snacks, and sugar-sweetened beverages (odds ratios: 6.6, 5.9, and 2.6, respectively; all P < .001) but not for savory snacks. The odds of buying foods on sale versus full price were not higher for any of any of the LCF (P ≥ .07). Without controlling for quantities purchased, we found that spending increased as percentage saved from the full price increased for all HCF and for fruits and vegetables (P ≤ .002). Focus group participants emphasized the lure of sale items and took advantage of sales to stock up. Strategies that shift supermarket sales promotions from price reductions for HCF to price reductions for LCF might help prevent obesity by decreasing purchases of HCF.

Public policy and risk financing strategies for global catastrophe risk management - the role of global risk initiatives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McSharry, Patrick; Mitchell, Andrew; Anderson, Rebecca

2010-05-01

Decision-makers in both public and private organisations depend on accurate data and scientific understanding to adequately address climate change and the impact of extreme events. The financial impacts of catastrophes on populations and infrastructure can be offset through effective risk transfer mechanisms, structured to reflect the specific perils and levels of exposure to be covered. Optimal strategies depend on the likely socio-econonomic impact, the institutional framework, the overall objectives of the covers placed and the level of both the frequency and severity of loss potential expected. The diversity of approaches across different countries has been documented by the Spanish "Consorcio de Compensación de Seguros". We discuss why international public/private partnerships are necessary for addressing the risk of natural catastrophes. International initiatives such as the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) and the World Forum of Catastrophe Programmes (WFCP) can provide effective guidelines for constructing natural catastrophe schemes. The World Bank has been instrumental in the creation of many of the existing schemes such as the Turkish Catastrophe Insurance Pool, the Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility and the Mongolian Index-Based Livestock Insurance Program. We review existing schemes and report on best practice in relation to providing protection against natural catastrophe perils. The suitability of catastrophe modelling approaches to support schemes across the world are discussed and we identify opportunities to improve risk assessment for such schemes through transparent frameworks for quantifying, pricing, sharing and financing catastrophe risk on a local and global basis.

H7N9 not only endanger human health but also hit stock marketing.

PubMed

Jiang, Yan; Zhang, Yi; Ma, Chunna; Wang, Quanyi; Xu, Chao; Donovan, Connor; Ali, Gholam; Xu, Tan; Sun, Wenjie

2017-01-01

This study aims to discuss the correlation between daily reported H7N9 cases and stock price indices in China. Information on daily reported H7N9 cases and stock market sectors indices between February 19, 2013 and March 31, 2014 were collected. A distributed lag non-linear model was used to describe the variation trend for the stock indices. The daily reported number of H7N9 cases was associated with the closing price of the Avian Influenza Sector Index (P < 0.05) and the opening price of the Shanghai Composite Index (P = 0.029). The Avian Influenza Sector Index decreased with increasing of daily reported case number when daily reported cases ≤ 4. Case number was associated with the opening/closing price of the Chinese Traditional Medicine Sector Index, the Biological Product Sector Index, and the Biomedicine Sector Index (P < 0.05). New or reemerging infectious diseases epidemic cause economic loss which is reflected in movements in stock prices.

7 CFR 1170.8 - Price reporting specifications.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (Marketing Agreements and Orders; Milk), DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE DAIRY PRODUCT MANDATORY REPORTING § 1170.8 Price reporting specifications. The following are the reporting specifications for each dairy product: (a...

Acceptability and Feasibility of HIV Self-Testing Among Transgender Women in San Francisco: A Mixed Methods Pilot Study.

PubMed

Lippman, Sheri A; Moran, Lissa; Sevelius, Jae; Castillo, Leslie S; Ventura, Angel; Treves-Kagan, Sarah; Buchbinder, Susan

2016-04-01

An estimated one in four transgender women (trans women) in the U.S. are infected with HIV. Rates of HIV testing are not commensurate with their risk, necessitating alternative strategies for early detection and care. We explored the feasibility and acceptability of HIV self-testing (HIVST) with 50 HIV-negative adult trans women in San Francisco. Participants received three self-test kits to perform once a month. Acceptability and behavioral surveys were collected as were 11 in-depth interviews (IDIs). Among 50 participants, 44 reported utilizing HIVST at least once; 94 % reported the test easy to use; 93 % said results were easy to read; and 91 % would recommend it to others. Most participants (68 %) preferred HIVST to clinic-based testing, although price was a key barrier to uptake. IDIs revealed a tension between desires for privacy versus support found at testing sites. HIVST for trans women was acceptable and feasible and requires careful consideration of linkage to support services.

State energy price and expenditure report 1993

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

1995-12-01

The State Energy Price and Expenditure Report (SEPER) presents energy price and expenditure estimates individually for the 50 states and the District of Columbia and in aggregate for the US. The five economic sectors used in SEPER correspond to those used in SEDR and are residential, commercial, industrial, transportation, and electric utility. Documentation in appendices describe how the price estimates are developed, provide conversion factors for measures used in the energy analysis, and include a glossary. 65 tabs.

Monitoring, reporting and verifying emissions in the climate economy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bellassen, Valentin; Stephan, Nicolas; Afriat, Marion; Alberola, Emilie; Barker, Alexandra; Chang, Jean-Pierre; Chiquet, Caspar; Cochran, Ian; Deheza, Mariana; Dimopoulos, Christopher; Foucherot, Claudine; Jacquier, Guillaume; Morel, Romain; Robinson, Roderick; Shishlov, Igor

2015-04-01

The monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV) of greenhouse-gas emissions is the cornerstone of carbon pricing and management mechanisms. Here we consider peer-reviewed articles and 'grey literature' related to existing MRV requirements and their costs. A substantial part of the literature is the regulatory texts of the 15 most important carbon pricing and management mechanisms currently implemented. Based on a comparison of key criteria such as the scope, cost, uncertainty and flexibility of procedures, we conclude that conventional wisdom on MRV is not often promoted in existing carbon pricing mechanisms. Quantification of emissions uncertainty and incentives to reduce this uncertainty are usually only partially applied, if at all. Further, the time and resources spent on small sources of emissions would be expected to be limited. Although provisions aiming at an effort proportionate to the amount of emissions at stake -- 'materiality' -- are widespread, they are largely outweighed by economies of scale: in all schemes, MRV costs per tonne are primarily driven by the size of the source.

77 FR 20011 - Fair Credit Reporting Act Disclosures

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-04-03

... Credit Reporting Act (``FCRA'') will increase from $11.00 to $11.50 effective April 3, 2012. The Bureau is required to increase the $8.00 amount referred to in Section 612(f)(1)(A)(i) of the FCRA on January 1 of each year, based proportionally on changes in the Consumer Price Index (``CPI''), with...

Pricing and Welfare in Health Plan Choice.

PubMed

Bundorf, M Kate; Levin, Jonathan; Mahoney, Neale

2012-12-01

Premiums in health insurance markets frequently do not reflect individual differences in costs, either because consumers have private information or because prices are not risk rated. This creates inefficiencies when consumers self-select into plans. We develop a simple econometric model to study this problem and estimate it using data on small employers. We find a welfare loss of 2-11 percent of coverage costs compared to what is feasible with risk rating. Only about one-quarter of this is due to inefficiently chosen uniform contribution levels. We also investigate the reclassification risk created by risk rating individual incremental premiums, finding only a modest welfare cost.

Value-based differential pricing: efficient prices for drugs in a global context.

PubMed

Danzon, Patricia; Towse, Adrian; Mestre-Ferrandiz, Jorge

2015-03-01

This paper analyzes pharmaceutical pricing between and within countries to achieve second-best static and dynamic efficiency. We distinguish countries with and without universal insurance, because insurance undermines patients' price sensitivity, potentially leading to prices above second-best efficient levels. In countries with universal insurance, if each payer unilaterally sets an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) threshold based on its citizens' willingness-to-pay for health; manufacturers price to that ICER threshold; and payers limit reimbursement to patients for whom a drug is cost-effective at that price and ICER, then the resulting price levels and use within each country and price differentials across countries are roughly consistent with second-best static and dynamic efficiency. These value-based prices are expected to differ cross-nationally with per capita income and be broadly consistent with Ramsey optimal prices. Countries without comprehensive insurance avoid its distorting effects on prices but also lack financial protection and affordability for the poor. Improving pricing efficiency in these self-pay countries includes improving regulation and consumer information about product quality and enabling firms to price discriminate within and between countries. © 2013 The Authors. Health Economics published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Review of alternative measures of softwood sawtimber prices in the United States

Treesearch

Henry Spelter

2005-01-01

This study compares prices from various timber market reports and an estimate of timber value derived from product-selling prices and manufacturing costs. In the South, two primary sources of timber price information are Forest2Market (F2M) and Timber Mart-South (TMS). Comparisons showed that F2M prices are generally higher than TMS prices for both stumpage and...

Research Journal Prices--Trends and Problems. Update. CRS Report for Congress.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rowberg, Richard E.

This report highlights the trends and problems associated with rapid price increases of foreign-published journals, especially science and technology journals. It is observed that a combination of effects--e.g., discriminatory pricing on the part of some foreign publishers, the sharp decline of the U.S. dollar--have resulted in subscription…

Pink slimed: Media framing of novel food technologies and risk related to ground beef and processed foods in the U.S.

PubMed

Runge, Kristin K; Chung, Jennifer H; Su, Leona Yi-Fan; Brossard, Dominique; Scheufele, Dietram A

2018-09-01

In March 2012 ABC World News Report aired a series of reports on lean finely textured beef (LFTB) that resulted in a 10-year low for beef prices and the bankruptcy of a major firm that produced LFTB. Using a random sample survey, we tested the effects of the media frame "pink slime" and industry frame "lean finely textured beef," alongside media use, food-related knowledge, trust in food-related institutions and preference for local, fresh, organic and GMO-free foods on perceptions of risk related to ground beef containing pink slime/LFTB, processed foods and red meat. The "pink slime" frame was strongly and positively associated with risk related to ground beef, but not risk related to red meat or processed foods. Attention to news stories about pink slime/LFTB was strongly associated with risk related to ground beef and processed foods, but not red meat. We found varying effects of food values, knowledge and trust on all three dependent variables. Implications are discussed. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

16 CFR 640.4 - Content, form, and timing of risk-based pricing notices.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... credit to a consumer for the purpose of financing the purchase of an automobile from an auto dealer or... section, § 640.5(e)(3), or § 640.5(f)(4), as applicable; or (ii) Arranges to have the auto dealer or other...), as applicable, and maintains reasonable policies and procedures to verify that the auto dealer or...

16 CFR 640.4 - Content, form, and timing of risk-based pricing notices.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... credit to a consumer for the purpose of financing the purchase of an automobile from an auto dealer or... section, § 640.5(e)(3), or § 640.5(f)(4), as applicable; or (ii) Arranges to have the auto dealer or other...), as applicable, and maintains reasonable policies and procedures to verify that the auto dealer or...

12 CFR 222.73 - Content, form, and timing of risk-based pricing notices.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... for the purpose of financing the purchase of an automobile from an auto dealer or other party that is..., § 222.74(e)(3), or § 222.74(f)(4), as applicable; or (ii) Arranges to have the auto dealer or other...)(4), as applicable, and maintains reasonable policies and procedures to verify that the auto dealer...

12 CFR 222.73 - Content, form, and timing of risk-based pricing notices.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... for the purpose of financing the purchase of an automobile from an auto dealer or other party that is..., § 222.74(e)(3), or § 222.74(f)(4), as applicable; or (ii) Arranges to have the auto dealer or other...)(4), as applicable, and maintains reasonable policies and procedures to verify that the auto dealer...

12 CFR 1022.73 - Content, form, and timing of risk-based pricing notices.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... an auto dealer or other party that is not affiliated with the person, any requirement to provide a...) Arranges to have the auto dealer or other party provide a notice described in § 1022.72(a), § 1022.74(e... policies and procedures to verify that the auto dealer or other party provides such notice to the consumer...

16 CFR 640.4 - Content, form, and timing of risk-based pricing notices.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... credit to a consumer for the purpose of financing the purchase of an automobile from an auto dealer or... section, § 640.5(e)(3), or § 640.5(f)(4), as applicable; or (ii) Arranges to have the auto dealer or other...), as applicable, and maintains reasonable policies and procedures to verify that the auto dealer or...

16 CFR 640.4 - Content, form, and timing of risk-based pricing notices.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... credit to a consumer for the purpose of financing the purchase of an automobile from an auto dealer or... section, § 640.5(e)(3), or § 640.5(f)(4), as applicable; or (ii) Arranges to have the auto dealer or other...), as applicable, and maintains reasonable policies and procedures to verify that the auto dealer or...