Numerical modeling of subsidence induced by hydrocarbon production in a reservoir in coastal Louisiana

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Y.; Voyiadjis, G.

2017-12-01

Subsidence has caused significant wetland losses in coastal Louisiana due to various anthropogenic and geologic processes. Releveling data from National Geodetic Survey show that one of the governing factors in the coastal Louisiana is hydrocarbon production, which has led to the acceleration of spatial- and temporal-dependent subsidence. This work investigates the influence of hydrocarbon production on subsidence for a typical reservoir, the Valentine field in coastal Louisiana, based on finite element modeling in the framework of poroelasticity and poroplasticity. Geertsma's analytical model is first used in this work to interpret the observed subsidence, for a disc-shaped reservoir embedded in a semi-infinite homogeneous elastic medium. Based on the calibrated elastic material properties, the authors set up a 3D finite element model and validate the numerical results with Geertsma's analytical model. As the plastic deformation of a reservoir in an inhomogeneous medium plays an important role in the compaction of the reservoir and the land subsidence, the authors further adopt a modified Cam-Clay model to take account of the plastic compaction of the reservoir. The material properties in the Cam-Clay model are calibrated based on the subsidence observed in the field and that in the homogeneous elastic case. The observed trend and magnitude of subsidence in the Valentine field can be approximately reproduced through finite element modeling in both the homogeneous elastic case and the inhomogeneous plastic case, by using the calibrated material properties. The maximum compaction in the inhomogeneous plastic case is around half of that in the homogeneous elastic case, and thus the ratio of subsidence over compaction is larger in the inhomogeneous plastic case for a softer reservoir embedded in a stiffer medium.

Application of Discrete Fracture Modeling and Upscaling Techniques to Complex Fractured Reservoirs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karimi-Fard, M.; Lapene, A.; Pauget, L.

2012-12-01

During the last decade, an important effort has been made to improve data acquisition (seismic and borehole imaging) and workflow for reservoir characterization which has greatly benefited the description of fractured reservoirs. However, the geological models resulting from the interpretations need to be validated or calibrated against dynamic data. Flow modeling in fractured reservoirs remains a challenge due to the difficulty of representing mass transfers at different heterogeneity scales. The majority of the existing approaches are based on dual continuum representation where the fracture network and the matrix are represented separately and their interactions are modeled using transfer functions. These models are usually based on idealized representation of the fracture distribution which makes the integration of real data difficult. In recent years, due to increases in computer power, discrete fracture modeling techniques (DFM) are becoming popular. In these techniques the fractures are represented explicitly allowing the direct use of data. In this work we consider the DFM technique developed by Karimi-Fard et al. [1] which is based on an unstructured finite-volume discretization. The mass flux between two adjacent control-volumes is evaluated using an optimized two-point flux approximation. The result of the discretization is a list of control-volumes with the associated pore-volumes and positions, and a list of connections with the associated transmissibilities. Fracture intersections are simplified using a connectivity transformation which contributes considerably to the efficiency of the methodology. In addition, the method is designed for general purpose simulators and any connectivity based simulator can be used for flow simulations. The DFM technique is either used standalone or as part of an upscaling technique. The upscaling techniques are required for large reservoirs where the explicit representation of all fractures and faults is not possible. Karimi-Fard et al. [2] have developed an upscaling technique based on DFM representation. The original version of this technique was developed to construct a dual-porosity model from a discrete fracture description. This technique has been extended and generalized so it can be applied to a wide range of problems from reservoirs with a few or no fracture to highly fractured reservoirs. In this work, we present the application of these techniques to two three-dimensional fractured reservoirs constructed using real data. The first model contains more than 600 medium and large scale fractures. The fractures are not always connected which requires a general modeling technique. The reservoir has 50 wells (injectors and producers) and water flooding simulations are performed. The second test case is a larger reservoir with sparsely distributed faults. Single-phase simulations are performed with 5 producing wells. [1] Karimi-Fard M., Durlofsky L.J., and Aziz K. 2004. An efficient discrete-fracture model applicable for general-purpose reservoir simulators. SPE Journal, 9(2): 227-236. [2] Karimi-Fard M., Gong B., and Durlofsky L.J. 2006. Generation of coarse-scale continuum flow models from detailed fracture characterizations. Water Resources Research, 42(10): W10423.

The Fault Block Model: A novel approach for faulted gas reservoirs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ursin, J.R.; Moerkeseth, P.O.

1994-12-31

The Fault Block Model was designed for the development of gas production from Sleipner Vest. The reservoir consists of marginal marine sandstone of Hugine Formation. Modeling of highly faulted and compartmentalized reservoirs is severely impeded by the nature and extent of known and undetected faults and, in particular, their effectiveness as flow barrier. The model presented is efficient and superior to other models, for highly faulted reservoir, i.e. grid based simulators, because it minimizes the effect of major undetected faults and geological uncertainties. In this article the authors present the Fault Block Model as a new tool to better understandmore » the implications of geological uncertainty in faulted gas reservoirs with good productivity, with respect to uncertainty in well coverage and optimum gas recovery.« less

Estimating Western U.S. Reservoir Sedimentation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bensching, L.; Livneh, B.; Greimann, B. P.

2017-12-01

Reservoir sedimentation is a long-term problem for water management across the Western U.S. Observations of sedimentation are limited to reservoir surveys that are costly and infrequent, with many reservoirs having only two or fewer surveys. This work aims to apply a recently developed ensemble of sediment algorithms to estimate reservoir sedimentation over several western U.S. reservoirs. The sediment algorithms include empirical, conceptual, stochastic, and processes based approaches and are coupled with a hydrologic modeling framework. Preliminary results showed that the more complex and processed based algorithms performed better in predicting high sediment flux values and in a basin transferability experiment. However, more testing and validation is required to confirm sediment model skill. This work is carried out in partnership with the Bureau of Reclamation with the goal of evaluating the viability of reservoir sediment yield prediction across the western U.S. using a multi-algorithm approach. Simulations of streamflow and sediment fluxes are validated against observed discharges, as well as a Reservoir Sedimentation Information database that is being developed by the US Army Corps of Engineers. Specific goals of this research include (i) quantifying whether inter-algorithm differences consistently capture observational variability; (ii) identifying whether certain categories of models consistently produce the best results, (iii) assessing the expected sedimentation life-span of several western U.S. reservoirs through long-term simulations.

Prediction of total organic carbon content in shale reservoir based on a new integrated hybrid neural network and conventional well logging curves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Linqi; Zhang, Chong; Zhang, Chaomo; Wei, Yang; Zhou, Xueqing; Cheng, Yuan; Huang, Yuyang; Zhang, Le

2018-06-01

There is increasing interest in shale gas reservoirs due to their abundant reserves. As a key evaluation criterion, the total organic carbon content (TOC) of the reservoirs can reflect its hydrocarbon generation potential. The existing TOC calculation model is not very accurate and there is still the possibility for improvement. In this paper, an integrated hybrid neural network (IHNN) model is proposed for predicting the TOC. This is based on the fact that the TOC information on the low TOC reservoir, where the TOC is easy to evaluate, comes from a prediction problem, which is the inherent problem of the existing algorithm. By comparing the prediction models established in 132 rock samples in the shale gas reservoir within the Jiaoshiba area, it can be seen that the accuracy of the proposed IHNN model is much higher than that of the other prediction models. The mean square error of the samples, which were not joined to the established models, was reduced from 0.586 to 0.442. The results show that TOC prediction is easier after logging prediction has been improved. Furthermore, this paper puts forward the next research direction of the prediction model. The IHNN algorithm can help evaluate the TOC of a shale gas reservoir.

Efficient reinforcement learning of a reservoir network model of parametric working memory achieved with a cluster population winner-take-all readout mechanism.

PubMed

Cheng, Zhenbo; Deng, Zhidong; Hu, Xiaolin; Zhang, Bo; Yang, Tianming

2015-12-01

The brain often has to make decisions based on information stored in working memory, but the neural circuitry underlying working memory is not fully understood. Many theoretical efforts have been focused on modeling the persistent delay period activity in the prefrontal areas that is believed to represent working memory. Recent experiments reveal that the delay period activity in the prefrontal cortex is neither static nor homogeneous as previously assumed. Models based on reservoir networks have been proposed to model such a dynamical activity pattern. The connections between neurons within a reservoir are random and do not require explicit tuning. Information storage does not depend on the stable states of the network. However, it is not clear how the encoded information can be retrieved for decision making with a biologically realistic algorithm. We therefore built a reservoir-based neural network to model the neuronal responses of the prefrontal cortex in a somatosensory delayed discrimination task. We first illustrate that the neurons in the reservoir exhibit a heterogeneous and dynamical delay period activity observed in previous experiments. Then we show that a cluster population circuit decodes the information from the reservoir with a winner-take-all mechanism and contributes to the decision making. Finally, we show that the model achieves a good performance rapidly by shaping only the readout with reinforcement learning. Our model reproduces important features of previous behavior and neurophysiology data. We illustrate for the first time how task-specific information stored in a reservoir network can be retrieved with a biologically plausible reinforcement learning training scheme. Copyright © 2015 the American Physiological Society.

Experiments with Interaction between the National Water Model and the Reservoir System Simulation Model: A Case Study of Russian River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, J.; Johnson, L.; Cifelli, R.; Chandra, C. V.; Gochis, D.; McCreight, J. L.; Yates, D. N.; Read, L.; Flowers, T.; Cosgrove, B.

2017-12-01

NOAA National Water Center (NWC) in partnership with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and other academic partners have produced operational hydrologic predictions for the nation using a new National Water Model (NWM) that is based on the community WRF-Hydro modeling system since the summer of 2016 (Gochis et al., 2015). The NWM produces a variety of hydrologic analysis and prediction products, including gridded fields of soil moisture, snowpack, shallow groundwater levels, inundated area depths, evapotranspiration as well as estimates of river flow and velocity for approximately 2.7 million river reaches. Also included in the NWM are representations for more than 1,200 reservoirs which are linked into the national channel network defined by the USGS NHDPlusv2.0 hydrography dataset. Despite the unprecedented spatial and temporal coverage of the NWM, many known deficiencies exist, including the representation of lakes and reservoirs. This study addresses the implementation of a reservoir assimilation scheme through coupling of a reservoir simulation model to represent the influence of managed flows. We examine the use of the reservoir operations to dynamically update lake/reservoir storage volume states, characterize flow characteristics of river reaches flowing into and out of lakes and reservoirs, and incorporate enhanced reservoir operating rules for the reservoir model options within the NWM. Model experiments focus on a pilot reservoir domain-Lake Mendocino, CA, and its contributing watershed, the East Fork Russian River. This reservoir is modeled using United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) HEC-ResSim developed for application to examine forecast informed reservoir operations (FIRO) in the Russian River basin.

Intelligent reservoir operation system based on evolving artificial neural networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chaves, Paulo; Chang, Fi-John

2008-06-01

We propose a novel intelligent reservoir operation system based on an evolving artificial neural network (ANN). Evolving means the parameters of the ANN model are identified by the GA evolutionary optimization technique. Accordingly, the ANN model should represent the operational strategies of reservoir operation. The main advantages of the Evolving ANN Intelligent System (ENNIS) are as follows: (i) only a small number of parameters to be optimized even for long optimization horizons, (ii) easy to handle multiple decision variables, and (iii) the straightforward combination of the operation model with other prediction models. The developed intelligent system was applied to the operation of the Shihmen Reservoir in North Taiwan, to investigate its applicability and practicability. The proposed method is first built to a simple formulation for the operation of the Shihmen Reservoir, with single objective and single decision. Its results were compared to those obtained by dynamic programming. The constructed network proved to be a good operational strategy. The method was then built and applied to the reservoir with multiple (five) decision variables. The results demonstrated that the developed evolving neural networks improved the operation performance of the reservoir when compared to its current operational strategy. The system was capable of successfully simultaneously handling various decision variables and provided reasonable and suitable decisions.

Applications of resistivity modeling in reservoir development: examples from Balder Field, Norwegian North Sea

USGS Publications Warehouse

Paillet, Frederick L.; Haynes, F.M.; Buretz, O.M.

2001-01-01

The massive Paleocene oil sands of the Balder Field are overlain by several thinly bedded Eocene sand-prone packages of variable facies and reservoir quality. Although these sands have been penetrated by numerous exploration and development wells, uncertainty remains as to their extent, distribution, and ultimate effect on reservoir performance. The section is geologically complex (thin beds, injected sands, shale clasts and laminae, and faulting), and also contains a field-wide primary gas cap. With a depletion plan involving both gas and water injection, geologic/reservoir characterization of the Eocene is critical for prudent resource management during depletion. With this goal, resistivity modeling and core-based thin bed reservoir description from the first phase of development drilling have been integrated with seismic attribute mapping. Detailed core description, core permeability and grain size distribution data delineate six facies and help in distinguishing laterally continuous massive and laminated sands from potentially non-connected injection sands and non-reservoir quality siltstones and tuffs. Volumetric assessment of the thin sand resource has been enhanced by I-D forward modeling of induction log response using a commercial resistivity modeling program, R,BAN. After defining beds and facies with core and high resolution log data, the AHF60 array induction curve response was approximated using the 6FF40 response. Because many of the beds were thinner than 6FF40 resolution, the modeling is considered to provide a lower bound on R,. However, for most beds this model-based R, is significantly higher than that provided by one-foot vertical resolution shallow resistivity data, and is thought to be the best available estimate of true formation resistivity. Sensitivities in STOOIP were assessed with multiple R, earth models which can later be tested against production results. In addition, water saturation height functions, developed in vertical wells and thick beds, can be validated in deviated wells with thin beds. Sand thickness models constrained by this logand core-based petrophysical analysis were used to build impedance seismic synthetic sections from which seismic attributes could be extracted and calibrated. The model-based attribute calibration was then applied to the seismic impedance 3-D cube permitting sand thickness to be mapped and reservoir geology to be modeled with significantly more detail than previously possible. These results will guide the field''s reservoir management and assist in the delineation of new targets.

Understanding the Impact of Reservoir Operations on Temperature Hydrodynamics at Shasta Lake through 2D and 3D Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hallnan, R.; Busby, D.; Saito, L.; Daniels, M.; Danner, E.; Tyler, S.

2016-12-01

Stress on California's salmon fisheries as a result of recent drought highlights a need for effective temperature management in the Sacramento River. Cool temperatures are required for Chinook salmon spawning and rearing. At Shasta Dam in northern California, managers use selective reservoir withdrawals to meet downstream temperature thresholds set for Chinook salmon populations. Shasta Dam is equipped with a temperature control device (TCD) that allows for water withdrawals at different reservoir depths. A two-dimensional CE-QUAL-W2 (W2) model of Shasta Reservoir has been used to understand the impacts of TCD operations on reservoir and discharge dynamics at Shasta. W2 models the entire reservoir based on hydrologic and meteorological inputs, and therefore can be used to simulate various hydroclimatic conditions, reservoir operations, and resulting reservoir conditions. A limitation of the W2 model is that it only captures reservoir conditions in two dimensions (length and depth), which may not represent local hydrodynamic effects of TCD operations that could affect simulation of discharge temperatures. Thus, a three-dimensional (3D) model of the TCD and the immediately adjacent upstream reservoir has been constructed using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) in ANSYS Fluent. This 3D model provides additional insight into the mixing effects of different TCD operations, and resulting reservoir outflow temperatures. The drought conditions of 2015 provide a valuable dataset for assessing the efficacy of modeling the temperature profile of Shasta Reservoir under very low inflow volumes, so the W2 and CFD models are compared for model performance in late 2015. To assist with this assessment, data from a distributed temperature sensing (DTS) deployment at Shasta Lake since August 2015 are used. This presentation describes model results from both W2 as well as the CFD model runs during late 2015, and discuss their efficacy for modeling drought conditions.

A Statistical Graphical Model of the California Reservoir System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taeb, A.; Reager, J. T.; Turmon, M.; Chandrasekaran, V.

2017-11-01

The recent California drought has highlighted the potential vulnerability of the state's water management infrastructure to multiyear dry intervals. Due to the high complexity of the network, dynamic storage changes in California reservoirs on a state-wide scale have previously been difficult to model using either traditional statistical or physical approaches. Indeed, although there is a significant line of research on exploring models for single (or a small number of) reservoirs, these approaches are not amenable to a system-wide modeling of the California reservoir network due to the spatial and hydrological heterogeneities of the system. In this work, we develop a state-wide statistical graphical model to characterize the dependencies among a collection of 55 major California reservoirs across the state; this model is defined with respect to a graph in which the nodes index reservoirs and the edges specify the relationships or dependencies between reservoirs. We obtain and validate this model in a data-driven manner based on reservoir volumes over the period 2003-2016. A key feature of our framework is a quantification of the effects of external phenomena that influence the entire reservoir network. We further characterize the degree to which physical factors (e.g., state-wide Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), average temperature, snow pack) and economic factors (e.g., consumer price index, number of agricultural workers) explain these external influences. As a consequence of this analysis, we obtain a system-wide health diagnosis of the reservoir network as a function of PDSI.

Geothermal reservoir engineering research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ramey, H. J., Jr.; Kruger, P.; Brigham, W. E.; London, A. L.

1974-01-01

The Stanford University research program on the study of stimulation and reservoir engineering of geothermal resources commenced as an interdisciplinary program in September, 1972. The broad objectives of this program have been: (1) the development of experimental and computational data to evaluate the optimum performance of fracture-stimulated geothermal reservoirs; (2) the development of a geothermal reservoir model to evaluate important thermophysical, hydrodynamic, and chemical parameters based on fluid-energy-volume balances as part of standard reservoir engineering practice; and (3) the construction of a laboratory model of an explosion-produced chimney to obtain experimental data on the processes of in-place boiling, moving flash fronts, and two-phase flow in porous and fractured hydrothermal reservoirs.

A Time-Series Water Level Forecasting Model Based on Imputation and Variable Selection Method.

PubMed

Yang, Jun-He; Cheng, Ching-Hsue; Chan, Chia-Pan

2017-01-01

Reservoirs are important for households and impact the national economy. This paper proposed a time-series forecasting model based on estimating a missing value followed by variable selection to forecast the reservoir's water level. This study collected data from the Taiwan Shimen Reservoir as well as daily atmospheric data from 2008 to 2015. The two datasets are concatenated into an integrated dataset based on ordering of the data as a research dataset. The proposed time-series forecasting model summarily has three foci. First, this study uses five imputation methods to directly delete the missing value. Second, we identified the key variable via factor analysis and then deleted the unimportant variables sequentially via the variable selection method. Finally, the proposed model uses a Random Forest to build the forecasting model of the reservoir's water level. This was done to compare with the listing method under the forecasting error. These experimental results indicate that the Random Forest forecasting model when applied to variable selection with full variables has better forecasting performance than the listing model. In addition, this experiment shows that the proposed variable selection can help determine five forecast methods used here to improve the forecasting capability.

Intelligent control for modeling of real-time reservoir operation, part II: artificial neural network with operating rule curves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, Ya-Ting; Chang, Li-Chiu; Chang, Fi-John

2005-04-01

To bridge the gap between academic research and actual operation, we propose an intelligent control system for reservoir operation. The methodology includes two major processes, the knowledge acquired and implemented, and the inference system. In this study, a genetic algorithm (GA) and a fuzzy rule base (FRB) are used to extract knowledge based on the historical inflow data with a design objective function and on the operating rule curves respectively. The adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) is then used to implement the knowledge, to create the fuzzy inference system, and then to estimate the optimal reservoir operation. To investigate its applicability and practicability, the Shihmen reservoir, Taiwan, is used as a case study. For the purpose of comparison, a simulation of the currently used M-5 operating rule curve is also performed. The results demonstrate that (1) the GA is an efficient way to search the optimal input-output patterns, (2) the FRB can extract the knowledge from the operating rule curves, and (3) the ANFIS models built on different types of knowledge can produce much better performance than the traditional M-5 curves in real-time reservoir operation. Moreover, we show that the model can be more intelligent for reservoir operation if more information (or knowledge) is involved.

Initialising reservoir models for history matching using pre-production 3D seismic data: constraining methods and uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niri, Mohammad Emami; Lumley, David E.

2017-10-01

Integration of 3D and time-lapse 4D seismic data into reservoir modelling and history matching processes poses a significant challenge due to the frequent mismatch between the initial reservoir model, the true reservoir geology, and the pre-production (baseline) seismic data. A fundamental step of a reservoir characterisation and performance study is the preconditioning of the initial reservoir model to equally honour both the geological knowledge and seismic data. In this paper we analyse the issues that have a significant impact on the (mis)match of the initial reservoir model with well logs and inverted 3D seismic data. These issues include the constraining methods for reservoir lithofacies modelling, the sensitivity of the results to the presence of realistic resolution and noise in the seismic data, the geostatistical modelling parameters, and the uncertainties associated with quantitative incorporation of inverted seismic data in reservoir lithofacies modelling. We demonstrate that in a geostatistical lithofacies simulation process, seismic constraining methods based on seismic litho-probability curves and seismic litho-probability cubes yield the best match to the reference model, even when realistic resolution and noise is included in the dataset. In addition, our analyses show that quantitative incorporation of inverted 3D seismic data in static reservoir modelling carries a range of uncertainties and should be cautiously applied in order to minimise the risk of misinterpretation. These uncertainties are due to the limited vertical resolution of the seismic data compared to the scale of the geological heterogeneities, the fundamental instability of the inverse problem, and the non-unique elastic properties of different lithofacies types.

Review on applications of artificial intelligence methods for dam and reservoir-hydro-environment models.

PubMed

Allawi, Mohammed Falah; Jaafar, Othman; Mohamad Hamzah, Firdaus; Abdullah, Sharifah Mastura Syed; El-Shafie, Ahmed

2018-05-01

Efficacious operation for dam and reservoir system could guarantee not only a defenselessness policy against natural hazard but also identify rule to meet the water demand. Successful operation of dam and reservoir systems to ensure optimal use of water resources could be unattainable without accurate and reliable simulation models. According to the highly stochastic nature of hydrologic parameters, developing accurate predictive model that efficiently mimic such a complex pattern is an increasing domain of research. During the last two decades, artificial intelligence (AI) techniques have been significantly utilized for attaining a robust modeling to handle different stochastic hydrological parameters. AI techniques have also shown considerable progress in finding optimal rules for reservoir operation. This review research explores the history of developing AI in reservoir inflow forecasting and prediction of evaporation from a reservoir as the major components of the reservoir simulation. In addition, critical assessment of the advantages and disadvantages of integrated AI simulation methods with optimization methods has been reported. Future research on the potential of utilizing new innovative methods based AI techniques for reservoir simulation and optimization models have also been discussed. Finally, proposal for the new mathematical procedure to accomplish the realistic evaluation of the whole optimization model performance (reliability, resilience, and vulnerability indices) has been recommended.

Stochastic optimal operation of reservoirs based on copula functions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lei, Xiao-hui; Tan, Qiao-feng; Wang, Xu; Wang, Hao; Wen, Xin; Wang, Chao; Zhang, Jing-wen

2018-02-01

Stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) has been widely used to derive operating policies for reservoirs considering streamflow uncertainties. In SDP, there is a need to calculate the transition probability matrix more accurately and efficiently in order to improve the economic benefit of reservoir operation. In this study, we proposed a stochastic optimization model for hydropower generation reservoirs, in which 1) the transition probability matrix was calculated based on copula functions; and 2) the value function of the last period was calculated by stepwise iteration. Firstly, the marginal distribution of stochastic inflow in each period was built and the joint distributions of adjacent periods were obtained using the three members of the Archimedean copulas, based on which the conditional probability formula was derived. Then, the value in the last period was calculated by a simple recursive equation with the proposed stepwise iteration method and the value function was fitted with a linear regression model. These improvements were incorporated into the classic SDP and applied to the case study in Ertan reservoir, China. The results show that the transition probability matrix can be more easily and accurately obtained by the proposed copula function based method than conventional methods based on the observed or synthetic streamflow series, and the reservoir operation benefit can also be increased.

A location-based multiple point statistics method: modelling the reservoir with non-stationary characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, Yanshu; Feng, Wenjie

2017-12-01

In this paper, a location-based multiple point statistics method is developed to model a non-stationary reservoir. The proposed method characterizes the relationship between the sedimentary pattern and the deposit location using the relative central position distance function, which alleviates the requirement that the training image and the simulated grids have the same dimension. The weights in every direction of the distance function can be changed to characterize the reservoir heterogeneity in various directions. The local integral replacements of data events, structured random path, distance tolerance and multi-grid strategy are applied to reproduce the sedimentary patterns and obtain a more realistic result. This method is compared with the traditional Snesim method using a synthesized 3-D training image of Poyang Lake and a reservoir model of Shengli Oilfield in China. The results indicate that the new method can reproduce the non-stationary characteristics better than the traditional method and is more suitable for simulation of delta-front deposits. These results show that the new method is a powerful tool for modelling a reservoir with non-stationary characteristics.

Regional long-term production modeling from a single well test, Mount Elbert Gas Hydrate Stratigraphic Test Well, Alaska North Slope

USGS Publications Warehouse

Anderson, B.J.; Kurihara, M.; White, M.D.; Moridis, G.J.; Wilson, S.J.; Pooladi-Darvish, M.; Gaddipati, M.; Masuda, Y.; Collett, T.S.; Hunter, R.B.; Narita, H.; Rose, K.; Boswell, R.

2011-01-01

Following the results from the open-hole formation pressure response test in the BPXA-DOE-USGS Mount Elbert Gas Hydrate Stratigraphic Test Well (Mount Elbert well) using Schlumberger's Modular Dynamics Formation Tester (MDT) wireline tool, the International Methane Hydrate Reservoir Simulator Code Comparison project performed long-term reservoir simulations on three different model reservoirs. These descriptions were based on 1) the Mount Elbert gas hydrate accumulation as delineated by an extensive history-matching exercise, 2) an estimation of the hydrate accumulation near the Prudhoe Bay L-pad, and 3) a reservoir that would be down-dip of the Prudhoe Bay L-pad and therefore warmer and deeper. All of these simulations were based, in part, on the results of the MDT results from the Mount Elbert Well. The comparison group's consensus value for the initial permeability of the hydrate-filled reservoir (k = 0.12 mD) and the permeability model based on the MDT history match were used as the basis for subsequent simulations on the three regional scenarios. The simulation results of the five different simulation codes, CMG STARS, HydrateResSim, MH-21 HYDRES, STOMP-HYD, and TOUGH+HYDRATE exhibit good qualitative agreement and the variability of potential methane production rates from gas hydrate reservoirs is illustrated. As expected, the predicted methane production rate increased with increasing in situ reservoir temperature; however, a significant delay in the onset of rapid hydrate dissociation is observed for a cold, homogeneous reservoir and it is found to be repeatable. The inclusion of reservoir heterogeneity in the description of this cold reservoir is shown to eliminate this delayed production. Overall, simulations utilized detailed information collected across the Mount Elbert reservoir either obtained or determined from geophysical well logs, including thickness (37 ft), porosity (35%), hydrate saturation (65%), intrinsic permeability (1000 mD), pore water salinity (5 ppt), and formation temperature (3.3-3.9 ??C). This paper presents the approach and results of extrapolating regional forward production modeling from history-matching efforts on the results from a single well test. ?? 2010 Elsevier Ltd.

Regional long-term production modeling from a single well test, Mount Elbert Gas Hydrate Stratigraphic Test Well, Alaska North Slope

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Anderson, Brian J.; Kurihara, Masanori; White, Mark D.

2011-02-01

Following the results from the open-hole formation pressure response test in the BPXA-DOE-USGS Mount Elbert Gas Hydrate Stratigraphic Test Well (Mount Elbert well) using Schlumberger's Modular Dynamics Formation Tester (MDT) wireline tool, the International Methane Hydrate Reservoir Simulator Code Comparison project performed long-term reservoir simulations on three different model reservoirs. These descriptions were based on 1) the Mount Elbert gas hydrate accumulation as delineated by an extensive history-matching exercise, 2) an estimation of the hydrate accumulation near the Prudhoe Bay L-pad, and 3) a reservoir that would be down-dip of the Prudhoe Bay L-pad and therefore warmer and deeper. Allmore » of these simulations were based, in part, on the results of the MDT results from the Mount Elbert Well. The comparison group's consensus value for the initial permeability of the hydrate-filled reservoir (k = 0.12 mD) and the permeability model based on the MDT history match were used as the basis for subsequent simulations on the three regional scenarios. The simulation results of the five different simulation codes, CMG STARS, HydrateResSim, MH-21 HYDRES, STOMP-HYD, and TOUGH+HYDRATE exhibit good qualitative agreement and the variability of potential methane production rates from gas hydrate reservoirs is illustrated. As expected, the predicted methane production rate increased with increasing in situ reservoir temperature; however, a significant delay in the onset of rapid hydrate dissociation is observed for a cold, homogeneous reservoir and it is found to be repeatable. The inclusion of reservoir heterogeneity in the description of this cold reservoir is shown to eliminate this delayed production. Overall, simulations utilized detailed information collected across the Mount Elbert reservoir either obtained or determined from geophysical well logs, including thickness (37 ft), porosity (35%), hydrate saturation (65%), intrinsic permeability (1000 mD), pore water salinity (5 ppt), and formation temperature (3.3–3.9 °C). Finally, this paper presents the approach and results of extrapolating regional forward production modeling from history-matching efforts on the results from a single well test.« less

Hydraulic fracture propagation modeling and data-based fracture identification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Jing

Successful shale gas and tight oil production is enabled by the engineering innovation of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing. Hydraulically induced fractures will most likely deviate from the bi-wing planar pattern and generate complex fracture networks due to mechanical interactions and reservoir heterogeneity, both of which render the conventional fracture simulators insufficient to characterize the fractured reservoir. Moreover, in reservoirs with ultra-low permeability, the natural fractures are widely distributed, which will result in hydraulic fractures branching and merging at the interface and consequently lead to the creation of more complex fracture networks. Thus, developing a reliable hydraulic fracturing simulator, including both mechanical interaction and fluid flow, is critical in maximizing hydrocarbon recovery and optimizing fracture/well design and completion strategy in multistage horizontal wells. A novel fully coupled reservoir flow and geomechanics model based on the dual-lattice system is developed to simulate multiple nonplanar fractures' propagation in both homogeneous and heterogeneous reservoirs with or without pre-existing natural fractures. Initiation, growth, and coalescence of the microcracks will lead to the generation of macroscopic fractures, which is explicitly mimicked by failure and removal of bonds between particles from the discrete element network. This physics-based modeling approach leads to realistic fracture patterns without using the empirical rock failure and fracture propagation criteria required in conventional continuum methods. Based on this model, a sensitivity study is performed to investigate the effects of perforation spacing, in-situ stress anisotropy, rock properties (Young's modulus, Poisson's ratio, and compressive strength), fluid properties, and natural fracture properties on hydraulic fracture propagation. In addition, since reservoirs are buried thousands of feet below the surface, the parameters used in the reservoir flow simulator have large uncertainty. Those biased and uncertain parameters will result in misleading oil and gas recovery predictions. The Ensemble Kalman Filter is used to estimate and update both the state variables (pressure and saturations) and uncertain reservoir parameters (permeability). In order to directly incorporate spatial information such as fracture location and formation heterogeneity into the algorithm, a new covariance matrix method is proposed. This new method has been applied to a simplified single-phase reservoir and a complex black oil reservoir with complex structures to prove its capability in calibrating the reservoir parameters.

Cascade reservoir flood control operation based on risk grading and warning in the Upper Yellow River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xuejiao, M.; Chang, J.; Wang, Y.

2017-12-01

Flood risk reduction with non-engineering measures has become the main idea for flood management. It is more effective for flood risk management to take various non-engineering measures. In this paper, a flood control operation model for cascade reservoirs in the Upper Yellow River was proposed to lower the flood risk of the water system with multi-reservoir by combining the reservoir flood control operation (RFCO) and flood early warning together. Specifically, a discharge control chart was employed to build the joint RFCO simulation model for cascade reservoirs in the Upper Yellow River. And entropy-weighted fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method was adopted to establish a multi-factorial risk assessment model for flood warning grade. Furthermore, after determining the implementing mode of countermeasures with future inflow, an intelligent optimization algorithm was used to solve the optimization model for applicable water release scheme. In addition, another model without any countermeasure was set to be a comparative experiment. The results show that the model developed in this paper can further decrease the flood risk of water system with cascade reservoirs. It provides a new approach to flood risk management by coupling flood control operation and flood early warning of cascade reservoirs.

Simulation of operating rules and discretional decisions using a fuzzy rule-based system integrated into a water resources management model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Macian-Sorribes, Hector; Pulido-Velazquez, Manuel

2013-04-01

Water resources systems are operated, mostly, using a set of pre-defined rules not regarding, usually, to an optimal allocation in terms of water use or economic benefits, but to historical and institutional reasons. These operating policies are reproduced, commonly, as hedging rules, pack rules or zone-based operations, and simulation models can be used to test their performance under a wide range of hydrological and/or socio-economic hypothesis. Despite the high degree of acceptation and testing that these models have achieved, the actual operation of water resources systems hardly follows all the time the pre-defined rules with the consequent uncertainty on the system performance. Real-world reservoir operation is very complex, affected by input uncertainty (imprecision in forecast inflow, seepage and evaporation losses, etc.), filtered by the reservoir operator's experience and natural risk-aversion, while considering the different physical and legal/institutional constraints in order to meet the different demands and system requirements. The aim of this work is to expose a fuzzy logic approach to derive and assess the historical operation of a system. This framework uses a fuzzy rule-based system to reproduce pre-defined rules and also to match as close as possible the actual decisions made by managers. After built up, the fuzzy rule-based system can be integrated in a water resources management model, making possible to assess the system performance at the basin scale. The case study of the Mijares basin (eastern Spain) is used to illustrate the method. A reservoir operating curve regulates the two main reservoir releases (operated in a conjunctive way) with the purpose of guaranteeing a high realiability of supply to the traditional irrigation districts with higher priority (more senior demands that funded the reservoir construction). A fuzzy rule-based system has been created to reproduce the operating curve's performance, defining the system state (total water stored in the reservoirs) and the month of the year as inputs; and the demand deliveries as outputs. The developed simulation management model integrates the fuzzy-ruled system of the operation of the two main reservoirs of the basin with the corresponding mass balance equations, the physical or boundary conditions and the water allocation rules among the competing demands. Historical information on inflow time series is used as inputs to the model simulation, being trained and validated using historical information on reservoir storage level and flow in several streams of the Mijares river. This methodology provides a more flexible and close to real policies approach. The model is easy to develop and to understand due to its rule-based structure, which mimics the human way of thinking. This can improve cooperation and negotiation between managers, decision-makers and stakeholders. The approach can be also applied to analyze the historical operation of the reservoir (what we have called a reservoir operation "audit").

Seismic low-frequency-based calculation of reservoir fluid mobility and its applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Xue-Hua; He, Zhen-Hua; Zhu, Si-Xin; Liu, Wei; Zhong, Wen-Li

2012-06-01

Low frequency content of seismic signals contains information related to the reservoir fluid mobility. Based on the asymptotic analysis theory of frequency-dependent reflectivity from a fluid-saturated poroelastic medium, we derive the computational implementation of reservoir fluid mobility and present the determination of optimal frequency in the implementation. We then calculate the reservoir fluid mobility using the optimal frequency instantaneous spectra at the low-frequency end of the seismic spectrum. The methodology is applied to synthetic seismic data from a permeable gas-bearing reservoir model and real land and marine seismic data. The results demonstrate that the fluid mobility shows excellent quality in imaging the gas reservoirs. It is feasible to detect the location and spatial distribution of gas reservoirs and reduce the non-uniqueness and uncertainty in fluid identification.

Petro-elastic modelling and characterization of solid-filled reservoirs: Comparative analysis on a Triassic North Sea reservoir

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Auduson, Aaron E.

2018-07-01

One of the most common problems in the North Sea is the occurrence of salt (solid) in the pores of Triassic sandstones. Many wells have failed due to interpretation errors based conventional substitution as described by the Gassmann equation. A way forward is to device a means to model and characterize the salt-plugging scenarios. Modelling the effects of fluid and solids on rock velocity and density will ascertain the influence of pore material types on seismic data. In this study, two different rock physics modelling approaches are adopted in solid-fluid substitution, namely the extended Gassmann theory and multi-mineral mixing modelling. Using the modified new Gassmann equation, solid-and-fluid substitutions were performed from gas or water filling in the hydrocarbon reservoirs to salt materials being the pore-filling. Inverse substitutions were also performed from salt-filled case to gas- and water-filled scenarios. The modelling results show very consistent results - Salt-plugged wells clearly showing different elastic parameters when compared with gas- and water-bearing wells. While the Gassmann equation-based modelling was used to discretely compute effective bulk and shear moduli of the salt plugs, the algorithm based on the mineral-mixing (Hashin-Shtrikman) can only predict elastic moduli in a narrow range. Thus, inasmuch as both of these methods can be used to model elastic parameters and characterize pore-fill scenarios, the New Gassmann-based algorithm, which is capable of precisely predicting the elastic parameters, is recommended for use in forward seismic modelling and characterization of this reservoir and other reservoir types. This will significantly help in reducing seismic interpretation errors.

Gas network model allows full reservoir coupling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Methnani, M.M.

The gas-network flow model (Gasnet) developed for and added to an existing Qatar General Petroleum Corp. (OGPC) in-house reservoir simulator, allows improved modeling of the interaction among the reservoir, wells, and pipeline networks. Gasnet is a three-phase model that is modified to handle gas-condensate systems. The numerical solution is based on a control volume scheme that uses the concept of cells and junctions, whereby pressure and phase densities are defined in cells, while phase flows are defined at junction links. The model features common numerical equations for the reservoir, the well, and the pipeline components and an efficient state-variable solutionmore » method in which all primary variables including phase flows are solved directly. Both steady-state and transient flow events can be simulated with the same tool. Three test cases show how the model runs. One case simulates flow redistribution in a simple two-branch gas network. The second simulates a horizontal gas well in a waterflooded gas reservoir. The third involves an export gas pipeline coupled to a producing reservoir.« less

Performance of a system of reservoirs on futuristic front

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saha, Satabdi; Roy, Debasri; Mazumdar, Asis

2017-10-01

Application of simulation model HEC-5 to analyze the performance of the DVC Reservoir System (a multipurpose system with a network of five reservoirs and one barrage) on the river Damodar in Eastern India in meeting projected future demand as well as controlling flood for synthetically generated future scenario is addressed here with a view to develop an appropriate strategy for its operation. Thomas-Fiering model (based on Markov autoregressive model) has been adopted for generation of synthetic scenario (monthly streamflow series) and subsequently downscaling of modeled monthly streamflow to daily values was carried out. The performance of the system (analysed on seasonal basis) in terms of `Performance Indices' (viz., both quantity based reliability and time based reliability, mean daily deficit, average failure period, resilience and maximum vulnerability indices) for the projected scenario with enhanced demand turned out to be poor compared to that for historical scenario. However, judicious adoption of resource enhancement (marginal reallocation of reservoir storage capacity) and demand management strategy (curtailment of projected high water requirements and trading off between demands) was found to be a viable option for improvement of the performance of the reservoir system appreciably [improvement being (1-51 %), (2-35 %), (16-96 %), (25-50 %), (8-36 %) and (12-30 %) for the indices viz., quantity based reliability, time based reliability, mean daily deficit, average failure period, resilience and maximum vulnerability, respectively] compared to that with normal storage and projected demand. Again, 100 % reliability for flood control for current as well as future synthetically generated scenarios was noted. The results from the study would assist concerned authority in successful operation of reservoirs in the context of growing demand and dwindling resource.

Near infrared and Raman spectroscopy as Process Analytical Technology tools for the manufacturing of silicone-based drug reservoirs.

PubMed

Mantanus, J; Rozet, E; Van Butsele, K; De Bleye, C; Ceccato, A; Evrard, B; Hubert, Ph; Ziémons, E

2011-08-05

Using near infrared (NIR) and Raman spectroscopy as PAT tools, 3 critical quality attributes of a silicone-based drug reservoir were studied. First, the Active Pharmaceutical Ingredient (API) homogeneity in the reservoir was evaluated using Raman spectroscopy (mapping): the API distribution within the industrial drug reservoirs was found to be homogeneous while API aggregates were detected in laboratory scale samples manufactured with a non optimal mixing process. Second, the crosslinking process of the reservoirs was monitored at different temperatures with NIR spectroscopy. Conformity tests and Principal Component Analysis (PCA) were performed on the collected data to find out the relation between the temperature and the time necessary to reach the crosslinking endpoints. An agreement was found between the conformity test results and the PCA results. Compared to the conformity test method, PCA had the advantage to discriminate the heating effect from the crosslinking effect occurring together during the monitored process. Therefore the 2 approaches were found to be complementary. Third, based on the HPLC reference method, a NIR model able to quantify the API in the drug reservoir was developed and thoroughly validated. Partial Least Squares (PLS) regression on the calibration set was performed to build prediction models of which the ability to quantify accurately was tested with the external validation set. The 1.2% Root Mean Squared Error of Prediction (RMSEP) of the NIR model indicated the global accuracy of the model. The accuracy profile based on tolerance intervals was used to generate a complete validation report. The 95% tolerance interval calculated on the validation results indicated that each future result will have a relative error below ±5% with a probability of at least 95%. In conclusion, 3 critical quality attributes of silicone-based drug reservoirs were quickly and efficiently evaluated by NIR and Raman spectroscopy. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

GIS-based rapid-assessment of bighead carp Hypophthalmichthys nobilis (Richardson, 1845) suitability in reservoirs

USGS Publications Warehouse

Long, James M.; Liang, Yu; Shoup, Daniel E.; Dzialowski, Andrew R.; Bidwell, Joseph R.

2014-01-01

Broad-scale niche models are good for examining the potential for invasive species occurrences, but can fall short in providing managers with site-specific locations for monitoring. Using Oklahoma as an example, where invasive bighead carp (Hypophthalmichthys nobilis) are established in certain reservoirs, but predicted to be widely distributed based on broad-scale niche models, we cast bighead carp reproductive ecology in a site-specific geospatial framework to determine their potential establishment in additional reservoirs. Because bighead carp require large, long free-flowing rivers with suitable hydrology for reproduction but can persist in reservoirs, we considered reservoir tributaries with mean annual daily discharge ≥8.5 cubic meters per second (m3 /s) and quantified the length of their unimpeded portions. In contrast to published broad-scale niche models that identified nearly the entire state as susceptible to invasion, our site-specific models showed that few reservoirs in Oklahoma (N = 9) were suitable for bighead carp establishment. Moreover, this method was rapid and identified sites that could be prioritized for increased study or scrutiny. Our results highlight the importance of considering the environmental characteristics of individual sites, which is often the level at which management efforts are implemented when assessing susceptibility to invasion.

Application of particle and lattice codes to simulation of hydraulic fracturing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Damjanac, Branko; Detournay, Christine; Cundall, Peter A.

2016-04-01

With the development of unconventional oil and gas reservoirs over the last 15 years, the understanding and capability to model the propagation of hydraulic fractures in inhomogeneous and naturally fractured reservoirs has become very important for the petroleum industry (but also for some other industries like mining and geothermal). Particle-based models provide advantages over other models and solutions for the simulation of fracturing of rock masses that cannot be assumed to be continuous and homogeneous. It has been demonstrated (Potyondy and Cundall Int J Rock Mech Min Sci Geomech Abstr 41:1329-1364, 2004) that particle models based on a simple force criterion for fracture propagation match theoretical solutions and scale effects derived using the principles of linear elastic fracture mechanics (LEFM). The challenge is how to apply these models effectively (i.e., with acceptable models sizes and computer run times) to the coupled hydro-mechanical problems of relevant time and length scales for practical field applications (i.e., reservoir scale and hours of injection time). A formulation of a fully coupled hydro-mechanical particle-based model and its application to the simulation of hydraulic treatment of unconventional reservoirs are presented. Model validation by comparing with available analytical asymptotic solutions (penny-shape crack) and some examples of field application (e.g., interaction with DFN) are also included.

Unconventional Tight Reservoirs Characterization with Nuclear Magnetic Resonance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santiago, C. J. S.; Solatpour, R.; Kantzas, A.

2017-12-01

The increase in tight reservoir exploitation projects causes producing many papers each year on new, modern, and modified methods and techniques on estimating characteristics of these reservoirs. The most ambiguous of all basic reservoir property estimations deals with permeability. One of the logging methods that is advertised to predict permeability but is always met by skepticism is Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR). The ability of NMR to differentiate between bound and movable fluids and providing porosity increased the capability of NMR as a permeability prediction technique. This leads to a multitude of publications and the motivation of a review paper on this subject by Babadagli et al. (2002). The first part of this presentation is dedicated to an extensive review of the existing correlation models for NMR based estimates of tight reservoir permeability to update this topic. On the second part, the collected literature information is used to analyze new experimental data. The data are collected from tight reservoirs from Canada, the Middle East, and China. A case study is created to apply NMR measurement in the prediction of reservoir characterization parameters such as porosity, permeability, cut-offs, irreducible saturations etc. Moreover, permeability correlations are utilized to predict permeability. NMR experiments were conducted on water saturated cores. NMR T2 relaxation times were measured. NMR porosity, the geometric mean relaxation time (T2gm), Irreducible Bulk Volume (BVI), and Movable Bulk Volume (BVM) were calculated. The correlation coefficients were computed based on multiple regression analysis. Results are cross plots of NMR permeability versus the independently measured Klinkenberg corrected permeability. More complicated equations are discussed. Error analysis of models is presented and compared. This presentation is beneficial in understanding existing tight reservoir permeability models. The results can be used as a guide for choosing the best permeability estimation model for tight reservoirs data.

Reservoir water level forecasting using group method of data handling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaji, Amir Hossein; Bonakdari, Hossein; Gharabaghi, Bahram

2018-06-01

Accurately forecasted reservoir water level is among the most vital data for efficient reservoir structure design and management. In this study, the group method of data handling is combined with the minimum description length method to develop a very practical and functional model for predicting reservoir water levels. The models' performance is evaluated using two groups of input combinations based on recent days and recent weeks. Four different input combinations are considered in total. The data collected from Chahnimeh#1 Reservoir in eastern Iran are used for model training and validation. To assess the models' applicability in practical situations, the models are made to predict a non-observed dataset for the nearby Chahnimeh#4 Reservoir. According to the results, input combinations (L, L -1) and (L, L -1, L -12) for recent days with root-mean-squared error (RMSE) of 0.3478 and 0.3767, respectively, outperform input combinations (L, L -7) and (L, L -7, L -14) for recent weeks with RMSE of 0.3866 and 0.4378, respectively, with the dataset from https://www.typingclub.com/st. Accordingly, (L, L -1) is selected as the best input combination for making 7-day ahead predictions of reservoir water levels.

Analytical modeling of mercury injection in high-rank coalbed methane reservoirs based on pores and microfractures: a case study of the upper carboniferous Taiyuan Formation in the Heshun block of the Qinshui Basin, central China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gu, Yang; Ding, Wenlong; Yin, Shuai; Wang, Ruyue; Mei, Yonggui; Liu, Jianjun

2017-03-01

The coalbed gas reservoirs in the Qinshui Basin in central China are highly heterogeneous; thus, the reservoir characteristics are difficult to assess. Research on the pore structure of a reservoir can provide a basis for understanding the occurrence and seepage mechanisms of coal reservoirs, rock physics modeling and the formulation of rational development plans. Therefore, the pore structure characteristics of the coalbed gas reservoirs in the high rank bituminous coal in the No. 15 coal seam of the Carboniferous Taiyuan Group in the Heshun coalbed methane (CBM) blocks in the northeastern Qinshui Basin were analyzed based on pressure mercury and scanning electron microscopy data. The results showed that the effective porosity system of the coal reservoir was mainly composed of pores and microfractures and that the pore throat configuration of the coal reservoir was composed of pores and microthroats. A model was developed based on the porosity and microfractures of the high rank coal rock and the mercury injection and drainage curves. The mercury injection curve model and the coal permeability are well correlated and were more reliable for the analysis of coal and rock pore system connectivity than the mercury drainage curve model. Coal rocks with developed microfractures are highly permeable; the production levels are often high during the initial drainage stages, but they decrease rapidly. A significant portion of the natural gas remains in the strata and cannot be exploited; therefore, the ultimate recovery is rather low. Coal samples with underdeveloped microfractures have lower permeabilities. While the initial production levels are lower, the production cycle is longer, and the ultimate recovery is higher. Therefore, the initial production levels of coal reservoirs with poorly developed microfractures in some regions of China may be low. However, over the long term, due to their higher ultimate recoveries and longer production cycles, the total gas production levels will increase. This understanding can provide an important reference for developing appropriate CBM development plans.

Towards an Improved Represenation of Reservoirs and Water Management in a Land Surface-Hydrology Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yassin, F.; Anis, M. R.; Razavi, S.; Wheater, H. S.

2017-12-01

Water management through reservoirs, diversions, and irrigation have significantly changed river flow regimes and basin-wide energy and water balance cycles. Failure to represent these effects limits the performance of land surface-hydrology models not only for streamflow prediction but also for the estimation of soil moisture, evapotranspiration, and feedbacks to the atmosphere. Despite recent research to improve the representation of water management in land surface models, there remains a need to develop improved modeling approaches that work in complex and highly regulated basins such as the 406,000 km2 Saskatchewan River Basin (SaskRB). A particular challenge for regional and global application is a lack of local information on reservoir operational management. To this end, we implemented a reservoir operation, water abstraction, and irrigation algorithm in the MESH land surface-hydrology model and tested it over the SaskRB. MESH is Environment Canada's Land Surface-hydrology modeling system that couples Canadian Land Surface Scheme (CLASS) with hydrological routing model. The implemented reservoir algorithm uses an inflow-outflow relationship that accounts for the physical characteristics of reservoirs (e.g., storage-area-elevation relationships) and includes simplified operational characteristics based on local information (e.g., monthly target volume and release under limited, normal, and flood storage zone). The irrigation algorithm uses the difference between actual and potential evapotranspiration to estimate irrigation water demand. This irrigation demand is supplied from the neighboring reservoirs/diversion in the river system. We calibrated the model enabled with the new reservoir and irrigation modules in a multi-objective optimization setting. Results showed that the reservoir and irrigation modules significantly improved the MESH model performance in generating streamflow and evapotranspiration across the SaskRB and that this our approach provides a basis for improved large scale hydrological modelling.

Enhancing water supply through reservoir reoperation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rajagopal, S.; Sterle, K. M.; Jose, L.; Coors, S.; Pohll, G.; Singletary, L.

2017-12-01

Snowmelt is a significant contributor to water supply in western U.S. which is stored in reservoirs for use during peak summer demand. The reservoirs were built to satisfy multiple objectives, but primarily to either enhance water supply and/or for flood mitigation. The operating rules for these water supply reservoirs are based on historical assumptions of stationarity of climate, assuming peak snowmelt occurs after April 1 and hence have to let water pass through if it arrived earlier. Using the Truckee River which originates in the eastern Sierra Nevada, has seven reservoirs and is shared between California and Nevada as an example, we show enhanced water storage by altering reservoir operating rules. These results are based on a coupled hydrology (Ground-Surface water Flow, GSFLOW) and water management model (RIverware) developed for the river system. All the reservoirs in the system benefit from altering the reservoir rules, but some benefit more than others. Prosser Creek reservoir for example, historically averaged 76% of capacity, which was lowered to 46% of capacity in the future as climate warms and shifts snowmelt to earlier days of the year. This reduction in storage can be mitigated by altering the reservoir operation rules and the reservoir storage increases to 64-76% of capacity. There are limitations to altering operating rules as reservoirs operated primarily for flood control are required to maintain lower storage to absorb a flood pulse, yet using modeling we show that there are water supply benefits to adopting a more flexible rules of operation. In the future, due to changing climate we anticipate the reservoirs in the western U.S. which were typically capturing spring- summer snowmelt will have to be managed more actively as the water stored in the snowpack becomes more variable. This study presents a framework for understanding, modeling and quantifying the consequences of such a shift in hydrology and water management.

Sparsity-promoting inversion for modeling of irregular volcanic deformation source

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhai, G.; Shirzaei, M.

2016-12-01

Kīlauea volcano, Hawaíi Island, has a complex magmatic system. Nonetheless, kinematic models of the summit reservoir have so far been limited to first-order analytical solutions with pre-determined geometry. To investigate the complex geometry and kinematics of the summit reservoir, we apply a multitrack multitemporal wavelet-based InSAR (Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar) algorithm and a geometry-free time-dependent modeling scheme considering a superposition of point centers of dilatation (PCDs). Applying Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to the time-dependent source model, six spatially independent deformation zones (i.e., reservoirs) are identified, whose locations are consistent with previous studies. Time-dependence of the model allows also identifying periods of correlated or anti-correlated behaviors between reservoirs. Hence, we suggest that likely the reservoir are connected and form a complex magmatic reservoir [Zhai and Shirzaei, 2016]. To obtain a physically-meaningful representation of the complex reservoir, we devise a new sparsity-promoting modeling scheme assuming active magma bodies are well-localized melt accumulations (i.e., outliers in background crust). The major steps include inverting surface deformation data using a hybrid L-1 and L-2 norm regularization approach to solve for sparse volume change distribution and then implementing a BEM based method to solve for opening distribution on a triangular mesh representing the complex reservoir. Using this approach, we are able to constrain the internal excess pressure of magma body with irregular geometry, satisfying uniformly pressurized boundary condition on the surface of magma chamber. The inversion method with sparsity constraint is tested using five synthetic source geometries, including torus, prolate ellipsoid, and sphere as well as horizontal and vertical L-shape bodies. The results show that source dimension, depth and shape are well recovered. Afterward, we apply this modeling scheme to deformation observed at Kilauea summit to constrain the magmatic source geometry, and revise the kinematics of Kilauea's shallow plumbing system. Such a model is valuable for understanding the physical processes in a magmatic reservoir and the method can readily be applied to other volcanic settings.

MeProRisk - a Joint Venture for Minimizing Risk in Geothermal Reservoir Development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clauser, C.; Marquart, G.

2009-12-01

Exploration and development of geothermal reservoirs for the generation of electric energy involves high engineering and economic risks due to the need for 3-D geophysical surface surveys and deep boreholes. The MeProRisk project provides a strategy guideline for reducing these risks by combining cross-disciplinary information from different specialists: Scientists from three German universities and two private companies contribute with new methods in seismic modeling and interpretation, numerical reservoir simulation, estimation of petrophysical parameters, and 3-D visualization. The approach chosen in MeProRisk consists in considering prospecting and developing of geothermal reservoirs as an iterative process. A first conceptual model for fluid flow and heat transport simulation can be developed based on limited available initial information on geology and rock properties. In the next step, additional data is incorporated which is based on (a) new seismic interpretation methods designed for delineating fracture systems, (b) statistical studies on large numbers of rock samples for estimating reliable rock parameters, (c) in situ estimates of the hydraulic conductivity tensor. This results in a continuous refinement of the reservoir model where inverse modelling of fluid flow and heat transport allows infering the uncertainty and resolution of the model at each iteration step. This finally yields a calibrated reservoir model which may be used to direct further exploration by optimizing additional borehole locations, estimate the uncertainty of key operational and economic parameters, and optimize the long-term operation of a geothermal resrvoir.

Modeling a distributed environment for a petroleum reservoir engineering application with software product line

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Faria Scheidt, Rafael; Vilain, Patrícia; Dantas, M. A. R.

2014-10-01

Petroleum reservoir engineering is a complex and interesting field that requires large amount of computational facilities to achieve successful results. Usually, software environments for this field are developed without taking care out of possible interactions and extensibilities required by reservoir engineers. In this paper, we present a research work which it is characterized by the design and implementation based on a software product line model for a real distributed reservoir engineering environment. Experimental results indicate successfully the utilization of this approach for the design of distributed software architecture. In addition, all components from the proposal provided greater visibility of the organization and processes for the reservoir engineers.

Geo-Engineering through Internet Informatics (GEMINI)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Watney, W. Lynn; Doveton, John H.; Victorine, John R.

GEMINI will resolve reservoir parameters that control well performance; characterize subtle reservoir properties important in understanding and modeling hydrocarbon pore volume and fluid flow; expedite recognition of bypassed, subtle, and complex oil and gas reservoirs at regional and local scale; differentiate commingled reservoirs; build integrated geologic and engineering model based on real-time, iterate solutions to evaluate reservoir management options for improved recovery; provide practical tools to assist the geoscientist, engineer, and petroleum operator in making their tasks more efficient and effective; enable evaluations to be made at different scales, ranging from individual well, through lease, field, to play and regionmore » (scalable information infrastructure); and provide training and technology transfer to evaluate capabilities of the client.« less

Trade-off analysis of discharge-desiltation-turbidity and ANN analysis on sedimentation of a combined reservoir-reach system under multi-phase and multi-layer conjunctive releasing operation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Chien-Lin; Hsu, Nien-Sheng; Wei, Chih-Chiang; Yao, Chun-Hao

2017-10-01

Multi-objective reservoir operation considering the trade-off of discharge-desiltation-turbidity during typhoons and sediment concentration (SC) simulation modeling are the vital components for sustainable reservoir management. The purposes of this study were (1) to analyze the multi-layer release trade-offs between reservoir desiltation and intake turbidity of downstream purification plants and thus propose a superior conjunctive operation strategy and (2) to develop ANFIS-based (adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system) and RTRLNN-based (real-time recurrent learning neural networks) substitute SC simulation models. To this end, this study proposed a methodology to develop (1) a series of multi-phase and multi-layer sediment-flood conjunctive release modes and (2) a specialized SC numerical model for a combined reservoir-reach system. The conjunctive release modes involve (1) an optimization model where the decision variables are multi-phase reduction/scaling ratios and the timings to generate a superior total release hydrograph for flood control (Phase I: phase prior to flood arrival, Phase II/III: phase prior to/subsequent to peak flow) and (2) a combination method with physical limitations regarding separation of the singular hydrograph into multi-layer release hydrographs for sediment control. This study employed the featured signals obtained from statistical quartiles/sediment duration curve in mesh segmentation, and an iterative optimization model with a sediment unit response matrix and corresponding geophysical-based acceleration factors, for efficient parameter calibration. This research applied the developed methodology to the Shihmen Reservoir basin in Taiwan. The trade-off analytical results using Typhoons Sinlaku and Jangmi as case examples revealed that owing to gravity current and re-suspension effects, Phase I + II can de-silt safely without violating the intake's turbidity limitation before reservoir discharge reaches 2238 m3/s; however, Phase III can only de-silt after the release at spillway reaches 827 m3/s, and before reservoir discharge reaches 1924 m3/s, with corresponding maximum desiltation ratio being 0.221 and 0.323, respectively. Moreover, the model construction results demonstrated that the self-adaption/fuzzy inference of ANFIS can effectively simulate the SC hydrograph in an unsteady state for suspended load-dominated water bodies, and that the real-time recurrent deterministic routing of RTRLNN can accurately simulate that of a bedload-dominated flow regime.

Simulation of a multistage fractured horizontal well in a water-bearing tight fractured gas reservoir under non-Darcy flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Rui-Han; Zhang, Lie-Hui; Wang, Rui-He; Zhao, Yu-Long; Huang, Rui

2018-06-01

Reservoir development for unconventional resources such as tight gas reservoirs is in increasing demand due to the rapid decline of production in conventional reserves. Compared with conventional reservoirs, fluid flow in water-bearing tight gas reservoirs is subject to more nonlinear multiphase flow and gas slippage in nano/micro matrix pores because of the strong collisions between rock and gas molecules. Economic gas production from tight gas reservoirs depends on extensive application of water-based hydraulic fracturing of horizontal wells, associated with non-Darcy flow at a high flow rate, geomechanical stress sensitivity of un-propped natural fractures, complex flow geometry and multiscale heterogeneity. How to efficiently and accurately predict the production performance of a multistage fractured horizontal well (MFHW) is challenging. In this paper, a novel multicontinuum, multimechanism, two-phase simulator is established based on unstructured meshes and the control volume finite element method to analyze the production performance of MFHWs. The multiple interacting continua model and discrete fracture model are coupled to integrate the unstimulated fractured reservoir, induced fracture networks (stimulated reservoir volumes, SRVs) and irregular discrete hydraulic fractures. Several simulations and sensitivity analyses are performed with the developed simulator for determining the key factors affecting the production performance of MFHWs. Two widely applied fracturing models, classic hydraulic fracturing which generates long double-wing fractures and the volumetric fracturing aimed at creating large SRVs, are compared to identify which of them can make better use of tight gas reserves.

The plumbotectonic model for Pb isotopic systematics among major terrestrial reservoirs - A case for bi-directional transport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zartman, Robert E.; Haines, Sara M.

1988-06-01

Version IV of plumbotectonics expands and refines the original model of DOE and ZARTMAN (1979) and ZARTMAN and DOE (1981) for explaining Pb (Sr, and Nd) isotopic systematics among major terrestrial reservoirs. A case for bi-directional transport among reservoirs is based on the observed isotopic compositions for different tectonic settings, and finds a rationale in the kinetics of plate tectonics. Chemical fractionation and radioactive decay create isotopic differences during periods of isolation of one reservoir from another, whereas dynamic processes allowing mixing between reservoirs tend to reduce these differences. Observed isotopic characteristics reflect a balance between these opposing tendencies and provide constraints on the extent and timing of fractionation and mixing processes. Plumbotectonics does not require interaction with a lower mantle or core reservoir over most of the Earth's lifetime, and, in fact, achieves a material balance consistent with no such exchange of material. Important evidence of the amount and timing of crustal recycling, and of the residence times of mantle heterogeneities lies in the coupled 207Pb /204Pb- 206 Pb 204Pb systematics. We believe that examination of the published data base fully supports our contention of significant bi-directional transport of material among terrestrial reservoirs. Plumbotectonics allows us to explore many aspects of reservoir interaction, and to identify parameters that provide meaningful constraints on mantle-crust differentiation. We put forth a compromise fit to many of the model variables in version IV, which can serve as a reference for future work.

Development of a management tool for reservoirs in Mediterranean environments based on uncertainty analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gómez-Beas, R.; Moñino, A.; Polo, M. J.

2012-05-01

In compliance with the development of the Water Framework Directive, there is a need for an integrated management of water resources, which involves the elaboration of reservoir management models. These models should include the operational and technical aspects which allow us to forecast an optimal management in the short term, besides the factors that may affect the volume of water stored in the medium and long term. The climate fluctuations of the water cycle that affect the reservoir watershed should be considered, as well as the social and economic aspects of the area. This paper shows the development of a management model for Rules reservoir (southern Spain), through which the water supply is regulated based on set criteria, in a sustainable way with existing commitments downstream, with the supply capacity being well established depending on demand, and the probability of failure when the operating requirements are not fulfilled. The results obtained allowed us: to find out the reservoir response at different time scales, to introduce an uncertainty analysis and to demonstrate the potential of the methodology proposed here as a tool for decision making.

Using a hot dry rock geothermal reservoir for load following

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brown, D.W.; Duteau, R.J.

1995-01-01

Field measurements and modeling have shown the potential for using a Hot Dry Rock (HDR) geothermal reservoir for electric load following: either with Power-Peaking from a base-load operating condition, or for Pumped Storage of off-peak electric energy with a very significant thermal augmentation of the stored mechanical energy during periods of power production. For the base-load with power- peaking mode of operation, and HDR reservoir appears capable of producing over twice its nominal power output for short -- 2 to 4 hour -- periods of time. In this mode of operation, the reservoir normally would be produced under a high-backpressuremore » condition with the HDR reservoir region near the production well highly inflated. Upon demand, the production backpressure would be sharply reduced, surging the production flow. The analytical tool used in these investigations has been the transient finite element model of the an HDR reservoir called GEOCRACK, which is being developed by Professor Dan Swenson and his students at Kansas State University. This discrete-element representation of a jointed rock mass has recently been validated for transient operations using the set of cyclic reservoir operating data obtained at the end of the LTFT.« less

Multi-criteria objective based climate change impact assessment for multi-purpose multi-reservoir systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Müller, Ruben; Schütze, Niels

2014-05-01

Water resources systems with reservoirs are expected to be sensitive to climate change. Assessment studies that analyze the impact of climate change on the performance of reservoirs can be divided in two groups: (1) Studies that simulate the operation under projected inflows with the current set of operational rules. Due to non adapted operational rules the future performance of these reservoirs can be underestimated and the impact overestimated. (2) Studies that optimize the operational rules for best adaption of the system to the projected conditions before the assessment of the impact. The latter allows for estimating more realistically future performance and adaption strategies based on new operation rules are available if required. Multi-purpose reservoirs serve various, often conflicting functions. If all functions cannot be served simultaneously at a maximum level, an effective compromise between multiple objectives of the reservoir operation has to be provided. Yet under climate change the historically preferenced compromise may no longer be the most suitable compromise in the future. Therefore a multi-objective based climate change impact assessment approach for multi-purpose multi-reservoir systems is proposed in the study. Projected inflows are provided in a first step using a physically based rainfall-runoff model. In a second step, a time series model is applied to generate long-term inflow time series. Finally, the long-term inflow series are used as driving variables for a simulation-based multi-objective optimization of the reservoir system in order to derive optimal operation rules. As a result, the adapted Pareto-optimal set of diverse best compromise solutions can be presented to the decision maker in order to assist him in assessing climate change adaption measures with respect to the future performance of the multi-purpose reservoir system. The approach is tested on a multi-purpose multi-reservoir system in a mountainous catchment in Germany. A climate change assessment is performed for climate change scenarios based on the SRES emission scenarios A1B, B1 and A2 for a set of statistically downscaled meteorological data. The future performance of the multi-purpose multi-reservoir system is quantified and possible intensifications of trade-offs between management goals or reservoir utilizations are shown.

Compaction of North-sea chalk by pore-failure and pressure solution in a producing reservoir

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keszthelyi, Daniel; Dysthe, Dag; Jamtveit, Bjorn

2016-02-01

The Ekofisk field, Norwegian North sea,is an example of compacting chalk reservoir with considerable subsequent seafloor subsidence due to petroleum production. Previously, a number of models were created to predict the compaction using different phenomenological approaches. Here we present a different approach, we use a new creep model based on microscopic mechanisms with no fitting parameters to predict strain rate at core scale and at reservoir scale. The model is able to reproduce creep experiments and the magnitude of the observed subsidence making it the first microstructural model which can explain the Ekofisk compaction.

Fine reservoir structure modeling based upon 3D visualized stratigraphic correlation between horizontal wells: methodology and its application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chenghua, Ou; Chaochun, Li; Siyuan, Huang; Sheng, James J.; Yuan, Xu

2017-12-01

As the platform-based horizontal well production mode has been widely applied in petroleum industry, building a reliable fine reservoir structure model by using horizontal well stratigraphic correlation has become very important. Horizontal wells usually extend between the upper and bottom boundaries of the target formation, with limited penetration points. Using these limited penetration points to conduct well deviation correction means the formation depth information obtained is not accurate, which makes it hard to build a fine structure model. In order to solve this problem, a method of fine reservoir structure modeling, based on 3D visualized stratigraphic correlation among horizontal wells, is proposed. This method can increase the accuracy when estimating the depth of the penetration points, and can also effectively predict the top and bottom interfaces in the horizontal penetrating section. Moreover, this method will greatly increase not only the number of points of depth data available, but also the accuracy of these data, which achieves the goal of building a reliable fine reservoir structure model by using the stratigraphic correlation among horizontal wells. Using this method, four 3D fine structure layer models have been successfully built of a specimen shale gas field with platform-based horizontal well production mode. The shale gas field is located to the east of Sichuan Basin, China; the successful application of the method has proven its feasibility and reliability.

Application of random seismic inversion method based on tectonic model in thin sand body research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dianju, W.; Jianghai, L.; Qingkai, F.

2017-12-01

The oil and gas exploitation at Songliao Basin, Northeast China have already progressed to the period with high water production. The previous detailed reservoir description that based on seismic image, sediment core, borehole logging has great limitations in small scale structural interpretation and thin sand body characterization. Thus, precise guidance for petroleum exploration is badly in need of a more advanced method. To do so, we derived the method of random seismic inversion constrained by tectonic model.It can effectively improve the depicting ability of thin sand bodies, combining numerical simulation techniques, which can credibly reducing the blindness of reservoir analysis from the whole to the local and from the macroscopic to the microscopic. At the same time, this can reduce the limitations of the study under the constraints of different geological conditions of the reservoir, accomplish probably the exact estimation for the effective reservoir. Based on the research, this paper has optimized the regional effective reservoir evaluation and the productive location adjustment of applicability, combined with the practical exploration and development in Aonan oil field.

Value of long-term streamflow forecast to reservoir operations for water supply in snow-dominated catchments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Anghileri, Daniela; Voisin, Nathalie; Castelletti, Andrea F.

In this study, we develop a forecast-based adaptive control framework for Oroville reservoir, California, to assess the value of seasonal and inter-annual forecasts for reservoir operation.We use an Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) approach to generate retrospective, one-year-long streamflow forecasts based on the Variable Infiltration Capacity hydrology model. The optimal sequence of daily release decisions from the reservoir is then determined by Model Predictive Control, a flexible and adaptive optimization scheme.We assess the forecast value by comparing system performance based on the ESP forecasts with that based on climatology and a perfect forecast. In addition, we evaluate system performance based onmore » a synthetic forecast, which is designed to isolate the contribution of seasonal and inter-annual forecast skill to the overall value of the ESP forecasts.Using the same ESP forecasts, we generalize our results by evaluating forecast value as a function of forecast skill, reservoir features, and demand. Our results show that perfect forecasts are valuable when the water demand is high and the reservoir is sufficiently large to allow for annual carry-over. Conversely, ESP forecast value is highest when the reservoir can shift water on a seasonal basis.On average, for the system evaluated here, the overall ESP value is 35% less than the perfect forecast value. The inter-annual component of the ESP forecast contributes 20-60% of the total forecast value. Improvements in the seasonal component of the ESP forecast would increase the overall ESP forecast value between 15 and 20%.« less

Development and evaluation of a reservoir model for the Chain of Lakes in Illinois

USGS Publications Warehouse

Domanski, Marian M.

2017-01-27

Forecasts of flows entering and leaving the Chain of Lakes reservoir on the Fox River in northeastern Illinois are critical information to water-resource managers who determine the optimal operation of the dam at McHenry, Illinois, to help minimize damages to property and loss of life because of flooding on the Fox River. In 2014, the U.S. Geological Survey; the Illinois Department of Natural Resources, Office of Water Resources; and National Weather Service, North Central River Forecast Center began a cooperative study to develop a system to enable engineers and planners to simulate and communicate flows and to prepare proactively for precipitation events in near real time in the upper Fox River watershed. The purpose of this report is to document the development and evaluation of the Chain of Lakes reservoir model developed in this study.The reservoir model for the Chain of Lakes was developed using the Hydrologic Engineering Center–Reservoir System Simulation program. Because of the complex relation between the dam headwater and reservoir pool elevations, the reservoir model uses a linear regression model that relates dam headwater elevation to reservoir pool elevation. The linear regression model was developed using 17 U.S. Geological Survey streamflow measurements, along with the gage height in the reservoir pool and the gage height at the dam headwater. The Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficients for all three linear regression model variables ranged from 0.90 to 0.98.The reservoir model performance was evaluated by graphically comparing simulated and observed reservoir pool elevation time series during nine periods of high pool elevation. In addition, the peak elevations during these time periods were graphically compared to the closest-in-time observed pool elevation peak. The mean difference in the simulated and observed peak elevations was -0.03 feet, with a standard deviation of 0.19 feet. The Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient for peak prediction was calculated as 0.94. Evaluation of the model based on accuracy of peak prediction and the ability to simulate an elevation time series showed the performance of the model was satisfactory.

The use of simple inflow- and storage-based heuristics equations to represent reservoir behavior in California for investigating human impacts on the water cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Solander, K.; David, C. H.; Reager, J. T.; Famiglietti, J. S.

2013-12-01

The ability to reasonably replicate reservoir behavior in terms of storage and outflow is important for studying the potential human impacts on the terrestrial water cycle. Developing a simple method for this purpose could facilitate subsequent integration in a land surface or global climate model. This study attempts to simulate monthly reservoir outflow and storage using a simple, temporally-varying set of heuristics equations with input consisting of in situ records of reservoir inflow and storage. Equations of increasing complexity relative to the number of parameters involved were tested. Only two parameters were employed in the final equations used to predict outflow and storage in an attempt to best mimic seasonal reservoir behavior while still preserving model parsimony. California reservoirs were selected for model development due to the high level of data availability and intensity of water resource management in this region relative to other areas. Calibration was achieved using observations from eight major reservoirs representing approximately 41% of the 107 largest reservoirs in the state. Parameter optimization was accomplished using the minimum RMSE between observed and modeled storage and outflow as the main objective function. Initial results obtained for a multi-reservoir average of the correlation coefficient between observed and modeled storage (resp. outflow) is of 0.78 (resp. 0.75). These results combined with the simplicity of the equations being used show promise for integration into a land surface or a global climate model. This would be invaluable for evaluations of reservoir management impacts on the flow regime and associated ecosystems as well as on the climate at both regional and global scales.

Stochastic model for the long-term transport of stored sediment in a river channel

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kelsey, Harvey M.; Lamberson, Roland; Madej, Mary Ann

1987-01-01

We develop a stochastic model for the transport of stored sediment down a river channel. The model is based on probabilities of transition of particles among four different sediment storage reservoirs, called active (often mobilized), semiactive, inactive, and stable (hardly ever mobilized). The probabilities are derived from computed sediment residence times. Two aspects of sediment storage are investigated: flushing times of sediment out of a storage reservoir and changes in the quantity of sediment stored in different reservoirs due to seasonal sediment transport into, and out of, a reach. We apply the model to Redwood Creek, a gravel bed river in northern California. Although the Redwood Creek data set is incomplete, the application serves as an example of the sorts of analyses that can be done with the method. The application also provides insights into the sediment storage process. Sediment flushing times are highly dependent on the degree of interaction of the stable reservoir with the more mobile sediment reservoirs. The most infrequent and highest intensity storm events, which mobilize the stable reservoir, are responsible for the long-term shifts in sediment storage. Turnover times of channel sediment in all but the stable reservoir are on the order of 750 years, suggesting this is all the time needed for thorough interchange between these sediment compartments and cycling of most sediment particles from the initial reservoir to the ocean. Finally, the Markov model has adequately characterized sediment storage changes in Redwood Creek for 1947–1982, especially for the active reservoir. The model replicates field observation of the passage of a slug of sediment through the active reservoir of the middle reach of Redwood Creek in the 18 years following a major storm in 1964 that introduced large quantities of landslide debris to the channel.

Gas hydrate saturations estimated from pore-and fracture-filling gas hydrate reservoirs in the Qilian Mountain permafrost, China.

PubMed

Xiao, Kun; Zou, Changchun; Lu, Zhenquan; Deng, Juzhi

2017-11-24

Accurate calculation of gas hydrate saturation is an important aspect of gas hydrate resource evaluation. The effective medium theory (EMT model), the velocity model based on two-phase medium theory (TPT model), and the two component laminated media model (TCLM model), are adopted to investigate the characteristics of acoustic velocity and gas hydrate saturation of pore- and fracture-filling reservoirs in the Qilian Mountain permafrost, China. The compressional wave (P-wave) velocity simulated by the EMT model is more consistent with actual log data than the TPT model in the pore-filling reservoir. The range of the gas hydrate saturation of the typical pore-filling reservoir in hole DKXX-13 is 13.0~85.0%, and the average value of the gas hydrate saturation is 61.9%, which is in accordance with the results by the standard Archie equation and actual core test. The P-wave phase velocity simulated by the TCLM model can be transformed directly into the P-wave transverse velocity in a fracture-filling reservoir. The range of the gas hydrate saturation of the typical fracture-filling reservoir in hole DKXX-19 is 14.1~89.9%, and the average value of the gas hydrate saturation is 69.4%, which is in accordance with actual core test results.

Identification and Assessment of Potential Water Quality Impact Factors for Drinking-Water Reservoirs

PubMed Central

Gu, Qing; Deng, Jinsong; Wang, Ke; Lin, Yi; Li, Jun; Gan, Muye; Ma, Ligang; Hong, Yang

2014-01-01

Various reservoirs have been serving as the most important drinking water sources in Zhejiang Province, China, due to the uneven distribution of precipitation and severe river pollution. Unfortunately, rapid urbanization and industrialization have been continuously challenging the water quality of the drinking-water reservoirs. The identification and assessment of potential impacts is indispensable in water resource management and protection. This study investigates the drinking water reservoirs in Zhejiang Province to better understand the potential impact on water quality. Altogether seventy-three typical drinking reservoirs in Zhejiang Province encompassing various water storage levels were selected and evaluated. Using fifty-two reservoirs as training samples, the classification and regression tree (CART) method and sixteen comprehensive variables, including six sub-sets (land use, population, socio-economy, geographical features, inherent characteristics, and climate), were adopted to establish a decision-making model for identifying and assessing their potential impacts on drinking-water quality. The water quality class of the remaining twenty-one reservoirs was then predicted and tested based on the decision-making model, resulting in a water quality class attribution accuracy of 81.0%. Based on the decision rules and quantitative importance of the independent variables, industrial emissions was identified as the most important factor influencing the water quality of reservoirs; land use and human habitation also had a substantial impact on water quality. The results of this study provide insights into the factors impacting the water quality of reservoirs as well as basic information for protecting reservoir water resources. PMID:24919129

Identification and assessment of potential water quality impact factors for drinking-water reservoirs.

PubMed

Gu, Qing; Deng, Jinsong; Wang, Ke; Lin, Yi; Li, Jun; Gan, Muye; Ma, Ligang; Hong, Yang

2014-06-10

Various reservoirs have been serving as the most important drinking water sources in Zhejiang Province, China, due to the uneven distribution of precipitation and severe river pollution. Unfortunately, rapid urbanization and industrialization have been continuously challenging the water quality of the drinking-water reservoirs. The identification and assessment of potential impacts is indispensable in water resource management and protection. This study investigates the drinking water reservoirs in Zhejiang Province to better understand the potential impact on water quality. Altogether seventy-three typical drinking reservoirs in Zhejiang Province encompassing various water storage levels were selected and evaluated. Using fifty-two reservoirs as training samples, the classification and regression tree (CART) method and sixteen comprehensive variables, including six sub-sets (land use, population, socio-economy, geographical features, inherent characteristics, and climate), were adopted to establish a decision-making model for identifying and assessing their potential impacts on drinking-water quality. The water quality class of the remaining twenty-one reservoirs was then predicted and tested based on the decision-making model, resulting in a water quality class attribution accuracy of 81.0%. Based on the decision rules and quantitative importance of the independent variables, industrial emissions was identified as the most important factor influencing the water quality of reservoirs; land use and human habitation also had a substantial impact on water quality. The results of this study provide insights into the factors impacting the water quality of reservoirs as well as basic information for protecting reservoir water resources.

An Integrated Modeling Approach for Describing Fate and Transport of Perfluorinated Compounds (PFCs) in Estuarine Reservoir

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, J.; Nguyen Viet, T.; Wang, X.; Chen, H.; Gin, K. Y. H.

2014-12-01

The fate and transport processes of emerging contaminants in aquatic ecosystems are complex, which are not only determined by their own properties but also influenced by the environmental setting, physical, chemical and biological processes. A 3D-emerging contaminant model has been developed based on Delft3D water quality model and coupled with a hydrodynamic model and a catchment-scale 1D- hydrological and hydraulic model to study the possible fate and transport mechanisms of perfluorinated compounds (PFCs) in Marina Reservoir in Singapore. The main processes in the contaminant model include partitioning (among detritus, dissolved organic matter and phytoplankton), settling, resuspension and degradation. We used the integrated model to quantify the distribution of the total PFCs and two major components, namely perfluorooctanoate (PFOA) and perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) in the water, sediments and organisms in the reservoir. The model yielded good agreement with the field measurements when evaluated based on the datasets in 2009 and 2010 as well as recent observations in 2013 and 2014. Our results elucidate that the model can be a useful tool to characterize the occurrence, sources, sinks and trends of PFCs both in the water column and in the sediments in the reservoir. Thisapproach provides a better understanding of mechanisms that influence the fate and transport of emerging contaminants and lays down a framework for future experiments to further explore how the dominant environmental factors change towards mitigation of emerging contaminants in the reservoirs.

Intergrated 3-D Ground-Penetrating Radar,Outcrop,and Boreholoe Data Applied to Reservoir Characterization and Flow Simulation.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McMechan et al.

2001-08-31

Existing reservoir models are based on 2-D outcrop;3-D aspects are inferred from correlation between wells,and so are inadequately constrained for reservoir simulations. To overcome these deficiencies, we initiated a multidimensional characterization of reservoir analogs in the Cretaceous Ferron Sandstone in Utah.The study was conducted at two sites(Corbula Gulch Coyote Basin); results from both sites are contained in this report. Detailed sedimentary facies maps of cliff faces define the geometry and distribution of potential reservoir flow units, barriers and baffles at the outcrop. High resolution 2-D and 3-D ground penetrating radar(GPR) images extend these reservoir characteristics into 3-D to allow developmentmore » of realistic 3-D reservoir models. Models use geometric information from the mapping and the GPR data, petrophysical data from surface and cliff-face outcrops, lab analyses of outcrop and core samples, and petrography. The measurements are all integrated into a single coordinate system using GPS and laser mapping of the main sedimentologic features and boundaries. The final step is analysis of results of 3-D fluid flow modeling to demonstrate applicability of our reservoir analog studies to well siting and reservoir engineering for maximization of hydrocarbon production. The main goals of this project are achieved. These are the construction of a deterministic 3-D reservoir analog model from a variety of geophysical and geologic measurements at the field sites, integrating these into comprehensive petrophysical models, and flow simulation through these models. This unique approach represents a significant advance in characterization and use of reservoir analogs. To data,the team has presented five papers at GSA and AAPG meetings produced a technical manual, and completed 15 technical papers. The latter are the main content of this final report. In addition,the project became part of 5 PhD dissertations, 3 MS theses,and two senior undergraduate research projects.« less

A numerical study of EGS heat extraction process based on a thermal non-equilibrium model for heat transfer in subsurface porous heat reservoir

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Jiliang; Jiang, Fangming

2016-02-01

With a previously developed numerical model, we perform a detailed study of the heat extraction process in enhanced or engineered geothermal system (EGS). This model takes the EGS subsurface heat reservoir as an equivalent porous medium while it considers local thermal non-equilibrium between the rock matrix and the fluid flowing in the fractured rock mass. The application of local thermal non-equilibrium model highlights the temperature-difference heat exchange process occurring in EGS reservoirs, enabling a better understanding of the involved heat extraction process. The simulation results unravel the mechanism of preferential flow or short-circuit flow forming in homogeneously fractured reservoirs of different permeability values. EGS performance, e.g. production temperature and lifetime, is found to be tightly related to the flow pattern in the reservoir. Thermal compensation from rocks surrounding the reservoir contributes little heat to the heat transmission fluid if the operation time of an EGS is shorter than 15 years. We find as well the local thermal equilibrium model generally overestimates EGS performance and for an EGS with better heat exchange conditions in the heat reservoir, the heat extraction process acts more like the local thermal equilibrium process.

Water Pollution Prediction in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area and Countermeasures for Sustainable Development of the Water Environment.

PubMed

Li, Yinghui; Huang, Shuaijin; Qu, Xuexin

2017-10-27

The Three Gorges Project was implemented in 1994 to promote sustainable water resource use and development of the water environment in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area (hereafter "Reservoir Area"). However, massive discharge of wastewater along the river threatens these goals; therefore, this study employs a grey prediction model (GM) to predict the annual emissions of primary pollution sources, including industrial wastewater, domestic wastewater, and oily and domestic wastewater from ships, that influence the Three Gorges Reservoir Area water environment. First, we optimize the initial values of a traditional GM (1,1) model, and build a new GM (1,1) model that minimizes the sum of squares of the relative simulation errors. Second, we use the new GM (1,1) model to simulate historical annual emissions data for the four pollution sources and thereby test the effectiveness of the model. Third, we predict the annual emissions of the four pollution sources in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area for a future period. The prediction results reveal the annual emission trends for the major wastewater types, and indicate the primary sources of water pollution in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area. Based on our predictions, we suggest several countermeasures against water pollution and towards the sustainable development of the water environment in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area.

Effects of warm water inflows on the dispersion of pollutants in small reservoirs.

PubMed

Palancar, María C; Aragón, José M; Sánchez, Fernando; Gil, Roberto

2006-11-01

The effects of the warm water discharged by a nuclear power plant (NPP) into a small reservoir are studied. A case study is presented (José Cabrera NPP-Zorita Hidráulica Reservoir) with experimental data of the reservoir stratification and predicted data of the dispersion of radioactive pollutants from operative or accidental releases. The vertical and longitudinal temperature profiles, electrical conductivity and transparency of the reservoir water were measured for an annual cycle. The results indicate that the continuous warm water discharge from the NPP causes permanent and artificial reservoir stratification. The stratification is significant within 1500 m upstream and 1000 m downstream from the warm water outfall. The pollutant dispersion has been predicted by using a flow model based on N(T) perfect-mixing compartments in series with feedback. The model parameter, N(T), is calculated from the longitudinal diffusion coefficient. The prediction of pollutant dispersion by means of this model shows that the stratification slows down the vertical mixing in the whole water body, and reduces the reservoir volume that is effective for the dilution and dispersion of pollutants. This means that, in the case of a radioactive pollutant release, the reservoir radioactivity level could increase significantly.

[Structure and function of Fenshuijiang Reservoir ecosystem based on the analysis with Ecopath model].

PubMed

Wu, Zhen; Jia, Pei-Qiao; Hu, Zhong-Jun; Chen, Li-Qiao; Gu, Zhi-Min; Liu, Qi-Gen

2012-03-01

Based on the 2008-2009 survey data of fishery resources and eco-environment of Fenshuijiang Reservoir, a mass balance model for the Reservoir ecosystem was constructed by Ecopath with Ecosim software. The model was composed of 14 functional groups, including silver carp, bighead carp, Hemibarbus maculates, Cutler alburnus, Microlepis and other fishes, Oligochaeta, aquatic insect, zooplankton, phytoplankton, and organic detritus, etc. , being able to better simulate Fenshuijiang Reservoir ecosystem. In this ecosystem, there were five trophic levels (TLs), and the nutrient flow mainly occurred in the first three TLs. Grazing and detritus food chains were the main energy flows in the ecosystem, but the food web was simpler and susceptible to be disturbed by outer environment. The transfer efficiency at lower TLs was relatively low, indicating that the ecosystem had a lower capability in energy utilization, and the excessive stock of nutrients in the ecosystem could lead to eutrophication. The lower connectance index, system omnivory index, Finn' s cycled index, and Finn's mean path length demonstrated that the ecosystem was unstable, while the high ecosystem property indices such as Pp/R and Pp/B showed that the ecosystem was immature and highly productive. It was suggested that Fenshuijiang Reservoir was still a developing new reservoir ecosystem, with a very short history and comparatively high primary productivity.

Application of Decision Tree to Obtain Optimal Operation Rules for Reservoir Flood Control Considering Sediment Desilting-Case Study of Tseng Wen Reservoir

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

ShiouWei, L.

2014-12-01

Reservoirs are the most important water resources facilities in Taiwan.However,due to the steep slope and fragile geological conditions in the mountain area,storm events usually cause serious debris flow and flood,and the flood then will flush large amount of sediment into reservoirs.The sedimentation caused by flood has great impact on the reservoirs life.Hence,how to operate a reservoir during flood events to increase the efficiency of sediment desilting without risk the reservoir safety and impact the water supply afterward is a crucial issue in Taiwan. 　Therefore,this study developed a novel optimization planning model for reservoir flood operation considering flood control and sediment desilting,and proposed easy to use operating rules represented by decision trees.The decision trees rules have considered flood mitigation,water supply and sediment desilting.The optimal planning model computes the optimal reservoir release for each flood event that minimum water supply impact and maximum sediment desilting without risk the reservoir safety.Beside the optimal flood operation planning model,this study also proposed decision tree based flood operating rules that were trained by the multiple optimal reservoir releases to synthesis flood scenarios.The synthesis flood scenarios consists of various synthesis storm events,reservoir's initial storage and target storages at the end of flood operating. 　Comparing the results operated by the decision tree operation rules(DTOR) with that by historical operation for Krosa Typhoon in 2007,the DTOR removed sediment 15.4% more than that of historical operation with reservoir storage only8.38×106m3 less than that of historical operation.For Jangmi Typhoon in 2008,the DTOR removed sediment 24.4% more than that of historical operation with reservoir storage only 7.58×106m3 less than that of historical operation.The results show that the proposed DTOR model can increase the sediment desilting efficiency and extend the reservoir life.

Using stochastic dynamic programming to support catchment-scale water resources management in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davidsen, Claus; Pereira-Cardenal, Silvio Javier; Liu, Suxia; Mo, Xingguo; Rosbjerg, Dan; Bauer-Gottwein, Peter

2013-04-01

A hydro-economic modelling approach is used to optimize reservoir management at river basin level. We demonstrate the potential of this integrated approach on the Ziya River basin, a complex basin on the North China Plain south-east of Beijing. The area is subject to severe water scarcity due to low and extremely seasonal precipitation, and the intense agricultural production is highly dependent on irrigation. Large reservoirs provide water storage for dry months while groundwater and the external South-to-North Water Transfer Project are alternative sources of water. An optimization model based on stochastic dynamic programming has been developed. The objective function is to minimize the total cost of supplying water to the users, while satisfying minimum ecosystem flow constraints. Each user group (agriculture, domestic and industry) is characterized by fixed demands, fixed water allocation costs for the different water sources (surface water, groundwater and external water) and fixed costs of water supply curtailment. The multiple reservoirs in the basin are aggregated into a single reservoir to reduce the dimensions of decisions. Water availability is estimated using a hydrological model. The hydrological model is based on the Budyko framework and is forced with 51 years of observed daily rainfall and temperature data. 23 years of observed discharge from an in-situ station located downstream a remote mountainous catchment is used for model calibration. Runoff serial correlation is described by a Markov chain that is used to generate monthly runoff scenarios to the reservoir. The optimal costs at a given reservoir state and stage were calculated as the minimum sum of immediate and future costs. Based on the total costs for all states and stages, water value tables were generated which contain the marginal value of stored water as a function of the month, the inflow state and the reservoir state. The water value tables are used to guide allocation decisions in simulation mode. The performance of the operation rules based on water value tables was evaluated. The approach was used to assess the performance of alternative development scenarios and infrastructure projects successfully in the case study region.

Integrated reservoir characterization and flow simulation for well targeting and reservoir management, Iagifu-Hedinia field, Southern Highlands Province, Papua New Guinea

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Franklin, S.P.; Livingston, J.E.; Fitzmorris, R.E.

Infill drilling based on integrated reservoir characterization and flow simulation is increasing recoverable reserves by 20 MMBO, in lagifu-Hedinia Field (IHF). Stratigraphically-zoned models are input to window and full-field flow simulations, and results of the flow simulations target deviated and horizontal wells. Logging and pressure surveys facilitate detailed reservoir management. Flooding surfaces are the dominant control on differential depletion within and between reservoirs. The primary reservoir is the basal Cretaceous Toro Sandstone. Within the IHF, Toro is a 100 m quartz sandstone composed of stacked, coarsening-upward parasequences within a wave-dominated deltaic complex. Flooding surfaces are used to form a hydraulicmore » zonation. The zonation is refined using discontinuities in RIFT pressure gradients and logs from development wells. For flow simulation, models use 3D geostatistical techniques. First, variograms defining spatial correlation are developed. The variograms are used to construct 3D porosity and permeability models which reflect the stratigraphic facies models. Structure models are built using dipmeter, biostratigraphic, and surface data. Deviated wells often cross axial surfaces and geometry is predicted from dip domain and SCAT. Faults are identified using pressure transient data and dipmeter. The Toro reservoir is subnormally pressured and fluid contacts are hydrodynamically tilted. The hydrodynamic flow and tilted contacts are modeled by flow simulation and constrained by maps of the potentiometric surface.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ernest A. Mancini

The University of Alabama in cooperation with Texas A&M University, McGill University, Longleaf Energy Group, Strago Petroleum Corporation, and Paramount Petroleum Company are undertaking an integrated, interdisciplinary geoscientific and engineering research project. The project is designed to characterize and model reservoir architecture, pore systems and rock-fluid interactions at the pore to field scale in Upper Jurassic Smackover reef and carbonate shoal reservoirs associated with varying degrees of relief on pre-Mesozoic basement paleohighs in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. The project effort includes the prediction of fluid flow in carbonate reservoirs through reservoir simulation modeling that utilizes geologic reservoir characterization andmore » modeling and the prediction of carbonate reservoir architecture, heterogeneity and quality through seismic imaging. The primary objective of the project is to increase the profitability, producibility and efficiency of recovery of oil from existing and undiscovered Upper Jurassic fields characterized by reef and carbonate shoals associated with pre-Mesozoic basement paleohighs. The principal research effort for Year 3 of the project has been reservoir characterization, 3-D modeling, testing of the geologic-engineering model, and technology transfer. This effort has included six tasks: (1) the study of seismic attributes, (2) petrophysical characterization, (3) data integration, (4) the building of the geologic-engineering model, (5) the testing of the geologic-engineering model and (6) technology transfer. This work was scheduled for completion in Year 3. Progress on the project is as follows: geoscientific reservoir characterization is completed. The architecture, porosity types and heterogeneity of the reef and shoal reservoirs at Appleton and Vocation Fields have been characterized using geological and geophysical data. The study of rock-fluid interactions has been completed. Observations regarding the diagenetic processes influencing pore system development and heterogeneity in these reef and shoal reservoirs have been made. Petrophysical and engineering property characterization has been completed. Porosity and permeability data at Appleton and Vocation Fields have been analyzed, and well performance analysis has been conducted. Data integration is up to date, in that, the geological, geophysical, petrophysical and engineering data collected to date for Appleton and Vocation Fields have been compiled into a fieldwide digital database. 3-D geologic modeling of the structures and reservoirs at Appleton and Vocation Fields has been completed. The models represent an integration of geological, petrophysical and seismic data. 3-D reservoir simulation of the reservoirs at Appleton and Vocation Fields has been completed. The 3-D geologic models served as the framework for the simulations. The geologic-engineering models of the Appleton and Vocation Field reservoirs have been developed. These models are being tested. The geophysical interpretation for the paleotopographic feature being tested has been made, and the study of the data resulting from drilling of a well on this paleohigh is in progress. Numerous presentations on reservoir characterization and modeling at Appleton and Vocation Fields have been made at professional meetings and conferences and a short course on microbial reservoir characterization and modeling based on these fields has been prepared.« less

On the effects of adaptive reservoir operating rules in hydrological physically-based models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giudici, Federico; Anghileri, Daniela; Castelletti, Andrea; Burlando, Paolo

2017-04-01

Recent years have seen a significant increase of the human influence on the natural systems both at the global and local scale. Accurately modeling the human component and its interaction with the natural environment is key to characterize the real system dynamics and anticipate future potential changes to the hydrological regimes. Modern distributed, physically-based hydrological models are able to describe hydrological processes with high level of detail and high spatiotemporal resolution. Yet, they lack in sophistication for the behavior component and human decisions are usually described by very simplistic rules, which might underperform in reproducing the catchment dynamics. In the case of water reservoir operators, these simplistic rules usually consist of target-level rule curves, which represent the average historical level trajectory. Whilst these rules can reasonably reproduce the average seasonal water volume shifts due to the reservoirs' operation, they cannot properly represent peculiar conditions, which influence the actual reservoirs' operation, e.g., variations in energy price or water demand, dry or wet meteorological conditions. Moreover, target-level rule curves are not suitable to explore the water system response to climate and socio economic changing contexts, because they assume a business-as-usual operation. In this work, we quantitatively assess how the inclusion of adaptive reservoirs' operating rules into physically-based hydrological models contribute to the proper representation of the hydrological regime at the catchment scale. In particular, we contrast target-level rule curves and detailed optimization-based behavioral models. We, first, perform the comparison on past observational records, showing that target-level rule curves underperform in representing the hydrological regime over multiple time scales (e.g., weekly, seasonal, inter-annual). Then, we compare how future hydrological changes are affected by the two modeling approaches by considering different future scenarios comprising climate change projections of precipitation and temperature and projections of electricity prices. We perform this comparative assessment on the real-world water system of Lake Como catchment in the Italian Alps, which is characterized by the massive presence of artificial hydropower reservoirs heavily altering the natural hydrological regime. The results show how different behavioral model approaches affect the system representation in terms of hydropower performance, reservoirs dynamics and hydrological regime under different future scenarios.

Assessing the operation rules of a reservoir system based on a detailed modelling-chain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bruwier, M.; Erpicum, S.; Pirotton, M.; Archambeau, P.; Dewals, B.

2014-09-01

According to available climate change scenarios for Belgium, drier summers and wetter winters are expected. In this study, we focus on two muti-purpose reservoirs located in the Vesdre catchment, which is part of the Meuse basin. The current operation rules of the reservoirs are first analysed. Next, the impacts of two climate change scenarios are assessed and enhanced operation rules are proposed to mitigate these impacts. For this purpose, an integrated model of the catchment was used. It includes a hydrological model, one-dimensional and two-dimensional hydraulic models of the river and its main tributaries, a model of the reservoir system and a flood damage model. Five performance indicators of the reservoir system have been defined, reflecting its ability to provide sufficient drinking, to control floods, to produce hydropower and to reduce low-flow condition. As shown by the results, enhanced operation rules may improve the drinking water potential and the low-flow augmentation while the existing operation rules are efficient for flood control and for hydropower production.

Assessing the operation rules of a reservoir system based on a detailed modelling chain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bruwier, M.; Erpicum, S.; Pirotton, M.; Archambeau, P.; Dewals, B. J.

2015-03-01

According to available climate change scenarios for Belgium, drier summers and wetter winters are expected. In this study, we focus on two multi-purpose reservoirs located in the Vesdre catchment, which is part of the Meuse basin. The current operation rules of the reservoirs are first analysed. Next, the impacts of two climate change scenarios are assessed and enhanced operation rules are proposed to mitigate these impacts. For this purpose, an integrated model of the catchment was used. It includes a hydrological model, one-dimensional and two-dimensional hydraulic models of the river and its main tributaries, a model of the reservoir system and a flood damage model. Five performance indicators of the reservoir system have been defined, reflecting its ability to provide sufficient drinking water, to control floods, to produce hydropower and to reduce low-flow conditions. As shown by the results, enhanced operation rules may improve the drinking water potential and the low-flow augmentation while the existing operation rules are efficient for flood control and for hydropower production.

Modelling sub-daily evaporation from a small reservoir.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McGloin, Ryan; McGowan, Hamish; McJannet, David; Burn, Stewart

2013-04-01

Accurate quantification of evaporation from small water storages is essential for water management and is also required as input in some regional hydrological and meteorological models. Global estimates of the number of small storages or lakes (< 0.1 kilometers) are estimated to be in the order of 300 million (Downing et al., 2006). However, direct evaporation measurements at small reservoirs using the eddy covariance or scintillometry techniques have been limited due to their expensive and complex nature. To correctly represent the effect that small water bodies have on the regional hydrometeorology, reliable estimates of sub-daily evaporation are necessary. However, evaporation modelling studies at small reservoirs have so far been limited to quantifying daily estimates. In order to ascertain suitable methods for accurately modelling hourly evaporation from a small reservoir, this study compares evaporation results measured by the eddy covariance method at a small reservoir in southeast Queensland, Australia, to results from several modelling approaches using both over-water and land-based meteorological measurements. Accurate predictions of hourly evaporation were obtained by a simple theoretical mass transfer model requiring only over-water measurements of wind speed, humidity and water surface temperature. An evaporation model that was recently developed for use in small reservoir environments by Granger and Hedstrom (2011), appeared to overestimate the impact stability had on evaporation. While evaporation predictions made by the 1-dimensional hydrodynamics model, DYRESM (Dynamic Reservoir Simulation Model) (Imberger and Patterson, 1981), showed reasonable agreement with measured values. DYRESM did not show any substantial improvement in evaporation prediction when inflows and out flows were included and only a slighter better correlation was shown when over-water meteorological measurements were used in place of land-based measurements. Downing, J. A., Y. T. Prairie, J. J. Cole, C. M. Duarte, L. J. Tranvik, R. G. Striegl, W. H. McDowell, P. Kortelainen, N. F. Caraco, J. M. Melack and J. J. Middelburg (2006), The global abundance and size distribution of lakes, ponds, and impoundments, Limnology and Oceanography, 51, 2388-2397. Granger, R.J. and N. Hedstrom (2011), Modelling hourly rates of evaporation from small lakes, Hydrological and Earth System Sciences, 15, doi:10.5194/hess-15-267-2011. Imberger, J. and J.C. Patterson (1981), Dynamic Reservoir Simulation Model - DYRESM: 5, In: Transport Models for Inland and Coastal Waters. H.B. Fischer (Ed.). Academic Press, New York, 310-361.

Refinement and evaluation of the Massachusetts firm-yield estimator model version 2.0

USGS Publications Warehouse

Levin, Sara B.; Archfield, Stacey A.; Massey, Andrew J.

2011-01-01

The firm yield is the maximum average daily withdrawal that can be extracted from a reservoir without risk of failure during an extended drought period. Previously developed procedures for determining the firm yield of a reservoir were refined and applied to 38 reservoir systems in Massachusetts, including 25 single- and multiple-reservoir systems that were examined during previous studies and 13 additional reservoir systems. Changes to the firm-yield model include refinements to the simulation methods and input data, as well as the addition of several scenario-testing capabilities. The simulation procedure was adapted to run at a daily time step over a 44-year simulation period, and daily streamflow and meteorological data were compiled for all the reservoirs for input to the model. Another change to the model-simulation methods is the adjustment of the scaling factor used in estimating groundwater contributions to the reservoir. The scaling factor is used to convert the daily groundwater-flow rate into a volume by multiplying the rate by the length of reservoir shoreline that is hydrologically connected to the aquifer. Previous firm-yield analyses used a constant scaling factor that was estimated from the reservoir surface area at full pool. The use of a constant scaling factor caused groundwater flows during periods when the reservoir stage was very low to be overestimated. The constant groundwater scaling factor used in previous analyses was replaced with a variable scaling factor that is based on daily reservoir stage. This change reduced instability in the groundwater-flow algorithms and produced more realistic groundwater-flow contributions during periods of low storage. Uncertainty in the firm-yield model arises from many sources, including errors in input data. The sensitivity of the model to uncertainty in streamflow input data and uncertainty in the stage-storage relation was examined. A series of Monte Carlo simulations were performed on 22 reservoirs to assess the sensitivity of firm-yield estimates to errors in daily-streamflow input data. Results of the Monte Carlo simulations indicate that underestimation in the lowest stream inflows can cause firm yields to be underestimated by an average of 1 to 10 percent. Errors in the stage-storage relation can arise when the point density of bathymetric survey measurements is too low. Existing bathymetric surfaces were resampled using hypothetical transects of varying patterns and point densities in order to quantify the uncertainty in stage-storage relations. Reservoir-volume calculations and resulting firm yields were accurate to within 5 percent when point densities were greater than 20 points per acre of reservoir surface. Methods for incorporating summer water-demand-reduction scenarios into the firm-yield model were developed as well as the ability to relax the no-fail reliability criterion. Although the original firm-yield model allowed monthly reservoir releases to be specified, there have been no previous studies examining the feasibility of controlled releases for downstream flows from Massachusetts reservoirs. Two controlled-release scenarios were tested—with and without a summer water-demand-reduction scenario—for a scenario with a no-fail criterion and a scenario that allows for a 1-percent failure rate over the entire simulation period. Based on these scenarios, about one-third of the reservoir systems were able to support the flow-release scenarios at their 2000–2004 usage rates. Reservoirs with higher storage ratios (reservoir storage capacity to mean annual streamflow) and lower demand ratios (mean annual water demand to annual firm yield) were capable of higher downstream release rates. For the purposes of this research, all reservoir systems were assumed to have structures which enable controlled releases, although this assumption may not be true for many of the reservoirs studied.

Derivation of optimal joint operating rules for multi-purpose multi-reservoir water-supply system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tan, Qiao-feng; Wang, Xu; Wang, Hao; Wang, Chao; Lei, Xiao-hui; Xiong, Yi-song; Zhang, Wei

2017-08-01

The derivation of joint operating policy is a challenging task for a multi-purpose multi-reservoir system. This study proposed an aggregation-decomposition model to guide the joint operation of multi-purpose multi-reservoir system, including: (1) an aggregated model based on the improved hedging rule to ensure the long-term water-supply operating benefit; (2) a decomposed model to allocate the limited release to individual reservoirs for the purpose of maximizing the total profit of the facing period; and (3) a double-layer simulation-based optimization model to obtain the optimal time-varying hedging rules using the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm II, whose objectives were to minimize maximum water deficit and maximize water supply reliability. The water-supply system of Li River in Guangxi Province, China, was selected for the case study. The results show that the operating policy proposed in this study is better than conventional operating rules and aggregated standard operating policy for both water supply and hydropower generation due to the use of hedging mechanism and effective coordination among multiple objectives.

Long-term ensemble forecast of snowmelt inflow into the Cheboksary Reservoir under two different weather scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gelfan, Alexander; Moreydo, Vsevolod; Motovilov, Yury; Solomatine, Dimitri P.

2018-04-01

A long-term forecasting ensemble methodology, applied to water inflows into the Cheboksary Reservoir (Russia), is presented. The methodology is based on a version of the semi-distributed hydrological model ECOMAG (ECOlogical Model for Applied Geophysics) that allows for the calculation of an ensemble of inflow hydrographs using two different sets of weather ensembles for the lead time period: observed weather data, constructed on the basis of the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction methodology (ESP-based forecast), and synthetic weather data, simulated by a multi-site weather generator (WG-based forecast). We have studied the following: (1) whether there is any advantage of the developed ensemble forecasts in comparison with the currently issued operational forecasts of water inflow into the Cheboksary Reservoir, and (2) whether there is any noticeable improvement in probabilistic forecasts when using the WG-simulated ensemble compared to the ESP-based ensemble. We have found that for a 35-year period beginning from the reservoir filling in 1982, both continuous and binary model-based ensemble forecasts (issued in the deterministic form) outperform the operational forecasts of the April-June inflow volume actually used and, additionally, provide acceptable forecasts of additional water regime characteristics besides the inflow volume. We have also demonstrated that the model performance measures (in the verification period) obtained from the WG-based probabilistic forecasts, which are based on a large number of possible weather scenarios, appeared to be more statistically reliable than the corresponding measures calculated from the ESP-based forecasts based on the observed weather scenarios.

Analysis of the return period and correlation between the reservoir-induced seismic frequency and the water level based on a copula: A case study of the Three Gorges reservoir in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Xiaofei; Zhang, Qiuwen

2016-11-01

Studies have considered the many factors involved in the mechanism of reservoir seismicity. Focusing on the correlation between reservoir-induced seismicity and the water level, this study proposes to utilize copula theory to build a correlation model to analyze their relationships and perform the risk analysis. The sequences of reservoir induced seismicity events from 2003 to 2011 in the Three Gorges reservoir in China are used as a case study to test this new methodology. Next, we construct four correlation models based on the Gumbel, Clayton, Frank copula and M-copula functions and employ four methods to test the goodness of fit: Q-Q plots, the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) test, the minimum distance (MD) test and the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) test. Through a comparison of the four models, the M-copula model fits the sample better than the other three models. Based on the M-copula model, we find that, for the case of a sudden drawdown of the water level, the possibility of seismic frequency decreasing obviously increases, whereas for the case of a sudden rising of the water level, the possibility of seismic frequency increasing obviously increases, with the former being greater than the latter. The seismic frequency is mainly distributed in the low-frequency region (Y ⩽ 20) for the low water level and in the middle-frequency region (20 < Y ≤ 80) for both the medium and high water levels; the seismic frequency in the high-frequency region (Y > 80) is the least likely. For the conditional return period, it can be seen that the period of the high-frequency seismicity is much longer than those of the normal and medium frequency seismicity, and the high water level shortens the periods.

Hydrological time series modeling: A comparison between adaptive neuro-fuzzy, neural network and autoregressive techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lohani, A. K.; Kumar, Rakesh; Singh, R. D.

2012-06-01

SummaryTime series modeling is necessary for the planning and management of reservoirs. More recently, the soft computing techniques have been used in hydrological modeling and forecasting. In this study, the potential of artificial neural networks and neuro-fuzzy system in monthly reservoir inflow forecasting are examined by developing and comparing monthly reservoir inflow prediction models, based on autoregressive (AR), artificial neural networks (ANNs) and adaptive neural-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). To take care the effect of monthly periodicity in the flow data, cyclic terms are also included in the ANN and ANFIS models. Working with time series flow data of the Sutlej River at Bhakra Dam, India, several ANN and adaptive neuro-fuzzy models are trained with different input vectors. To evaluate the performance of the selected ANN and adaptive neural fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) models, comparison is made with the autoregressive (AR) models. The ANFIS model trained with the input data vector including previous inflows and cyclic terms of monthly periodicity has shown a significant improvement in the forecast accuracy in comparison with the ANFIS models trained with the input vectors considering only previous inflows. In all cases ANFIS gives more accurate forecast than the AR and ANN models. The proposed ANFIS model coupled with the cyclic terms is shown to provide better representation of the monthly inflow forecasting for planning and operation of reservoir.

Water Pollution Prediction in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area and Countermeasures for Sustainable Development of the Water Environment

PubMed Central

Huang, Shuaijin; Qu, Xuexin

2017-01-01

The Three Gorges Project was implemented in 1994 to promote sustainable water resource use and development of the water environment in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area (hereafter “Reservoir Area”). However, massive discharge of wastewater along the river threatens these goals; therefore, this study employs a grey prediction model (GM) to predict the annual emissions of primary pollution sources, including industrial wastewater, domestic wastewater, and oily and domestic wastewater from ships, that influence the Three Gorges Reservoir Area water environment. First, we optimize the initial values of a traditional GM (1,1) model, and build a new GM (1,1) model that minimizes the sum of squares of the relative simulation errors. Second, we use the new GM (1,1) model to simulate historical annual emissions data for the four pollution sources and thereby test the effectiveness of the model. Third, we predict the annual emissions of the four pollution sources in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area for a future period. The prediction results reveal the annual emission trends for the major wastewater types, and indicate the primary sources of water pollution in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area. Based on our predictions, we suggest several countermeasures against water pollution and towards the sustainable development of the water environment in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area. PMID:29077006

The Effect of Model Grid Resolution on the Distributed Hydrologic Simulations for Forecasting Stream Flows and Reservoir Storage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turnbull, S. J.

2017-12-01

Within the US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), reservoirs are typically operated according to a rule curve that specifies target water levels based on the time of year. The rule curve is intended to maximize flood protection by specifying releases of water before the dominant rainfall period for a region. While some operating allowances are permissible, generally the rule curve elevations must be maintained. While this operational approach provides for the required flood control purpose, it may not result in optimal reservoir operations for multi-use impoundments. In the Russian River Valley of California a multi-agency research effort called Forecast-Informed Reservoir Operations (FIRO) is assessing the application of forecast weather and streamflow predictions to potentially enhance the operation of reservoirs in the watershed. The focus of the study has been on Lake Mendocino, a USACE project important for flood control, water supply, power generation and ecological flows. As part of this effort the Engineer Research and Development Center is assessing the ability of utilizing the physics based, distributed watershed model Gridded Surface Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis (GSSHA) model to simulate stream flows, reservoir stages, and discharges while being driven by weather forecast products. A key question in this application is the effect of watershed model resolution on forecasted stream flows. To help resolve this question, GSSHA models of multiple grid resolutions, 30, 50, and 270m, were developed for the upper Russian River, which includes Lake Mendocino. The models were derived from common inputs: DEM, soils, land use, stream network, reservoir characteristics, and specified inflows and discharges. All the models were calibrated in both event and continuous simulation mode using measured precipitation gages and then driven with the West-WRF atmospheric model in prediction mode to assess the ability of the model to function in short term, less than one week, forecasting mode. In this presentation we will discuss the effect the grid resolution has model development, parameter assignment, streamflow prediction and forecasting capability utilizing the West-WRF forecast hydro-meteorology.

Numerical schemes for anomalous diffusion of single-phase fluids in porous media

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Awotunde, Abeeb A.; Ghanam, Ryad A.; Al-Homidan, Suliman S.; Tatar, Nasser-eddine

2016-10-01

Simulation of fluid flow in porous media is an indispensable part of oil and gas reservoir management. Accurate prediction of reservoir performance and profitability of investment rely on our ability to model the flow behavior of reservoir fluids. Over the years, numerical reservoir simulation models have been based mainly on solutions to the normal diffusion of fluids in the porous reservoir. Recently, however, it has been documented that fluid flow in porous media does not always follow strictly the normal diffusion process. Small deviations from normal diffusion, called anomalous diffusion, have been reported in some experimental studies. Such deviations can be caused by different factors such as the viscous state of the fluid, the fractal nature of the porous media and the pressure pulse in the system. In this work, we present explicit and implicit numerical solutions to the anomalous diffusion of single-phase fluids in heterogeneous reservoirs. An analytical solution is used to validate the numerical solution to the simple homogeneous case. The conventional wellbore flow model is modified to account for anomalous behavior. Example applications are used to show the behavior of wellbore and wellblock pressures during the single-phase anomalous flow of fluids in the reservoirs considered.

Multiple long-term trends and trend reversals dominate environmental conditions in a man-made freshwater reservoir.

PubMed

Znachor, Petr; Nedoma, Jiří; Hejzlar, Josef; Seďa, Jaromír; Kopáček, Jiří; Boukal, David; Mrkvička, Tomáš

2018-05-15

Man-made reservoirs are common across the world and provide a wide range of ecological services. Environmental conditions in riverine reservoirs are affected by the changing climate, catchment-wide processes and manipulations with the water level, and water abstraction from the reservoir. Long-term trends of environmental conditions in reservoirs thus reflect a wider range of drivers in comparison to lakes, which makes the understanding of reservoir dynamics more challenging. We analysed a 32-year time series of 36 environmental variables characterising weather, land use in the catchment, reservoir hydrochemistry, hydrology and light availability in the small, canyon-shaped Římov Reservoir in the Czech Republic to detect underlying trends, trend reversals and regime shifts. To do so, we fitted linear and piecewise linear regression and a regime shift model to the time series of mean annual values of each variable and to principal components produced by Principal Component Analysis. Models were weighted and ranked using Akaike information criterion and the model selection approach. Most environmental variables exhibited temporal changes that included time-varying trends and trend reversals. For instance, dissolved organic carbon showed a linear increasing trend while nitrate concentration or conductivity exemplified trend reversal. All trend reversals and cessations of temporal trends in reservoir hydrochemistry (except total phosphorus concentrations) occurred in the late 1980s and during 1990s as a consequence of dramatic socioeconomic changes. After a series of heavy rains in the late 1990s, an administrative decision to increase the flood-retention volume of the reservoir resulted in a significant regime shift in reservoir hydraulic conditions in 1999. Our analyses also highlight the utility of the model selection framework, based on relatively simple extensions of linear regression, to describe temporal trends in reservoir characteristics. This approach can provide a solid basis for a better understanding of processes in freshwater reservoirs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Numerical simulation of groundwater movement and managed aquifer recharge from Sand Hollow Reservoir, Hurricane Bench area, Washington County, Utah

USGS Publications Warehouse

Marston, Thomas M.; Heilweil, Victor M.

2012-01-01

The Hurricane Bench area of Washington County, Utah, is a 70 square-mile area extending south from the Virgin River and encompassing Sand Hollow basin. Sand Hollow Reservoir, located on Hurricane Bench, was completed in March 2002 and is operated primarily as a managed aquifer recharge project by the Washington County Water Conservancy District. The reservoir is situated on a thick sequence of the Navajo Sandstone and Kayenta Formation. Total recharge to the underlying Navajo aquifer from the reservoir was about 86,000 acre-feet from 2002 to 2009. Natural recharge as infiltration of precipitation was approximately 2,100 acre-feet per year for the same period. Discharge occurs as seepage to the Virgin River, municipal and irrigation well withdrawals, and seepage to drains at the base of reservoir dams. Within the Hurricane Bench area, unconfined groundwater-flow conditions generally exist throughout the Navajo Sandstone. Navajo Sandstone hydraulic-conductivity values from regional aquifer testing range from 0.8 to 32 feet per day. The large variability in hydraulic conductivity is attributed to bedrock fractures that trend north-northeast across the study area.A numerical groundwater-flow model was developed to simulate groundwater movement in the Hurricane Bench area and to simulate the movement of managed aquifer recharge from Sand Hollow Reservoir through the groundwater system. The model was calibrated to combined steady- and transient-state conditions. The steady-state portion of the simulation was developed and calibrated by using hydrologic data that represented average conditions for 1975. The transient-state portion of the simulation was developed and calibrated by using hydrologic data collected from 1976 to 2009. Areally, the model grid was 98 rows by 76 columns with a variable cell size ranging from about 1.5 to 25 acres. Smaller cells were used to represent the reservoir to accurately simulate the reservoir bathymetry and nearby monitoring wells; larger cells were used in the northern and southern portions of the model where water-level data were limited. Vertically, the aquifer system was divided into 10 layers, which incorporated the Navajo Sandstone and Kayenta Formation. The model simulated recharge to the groundwater system as natural infiltration of precipitation and as infiltration of managed aquifer recharge from Sand Hollow Reservoir. Groundwater discharge was simulated as well withdrawals, shallow drains at the base of reservoir dams, and seepage to the Virgin River. During calibration, variables were adjusted within probable ranges to minimize differences among model-simulated and observed water levels, groundwater travel times, drain discharges, and monthly estimated reservoir recharge.

Artificial neural network modeling of dissolved oxygen in reservoir.

PubMed

Chen, Wei-Bo; Liu, Wen-Cheng

2014-02-01

The water quality of reservoirs is one of the key factors in the operation and water quality management of reservoirs. Dissolved oxygen (DO) in water column is essential for microorganisms and a significant indicator of the state of aquatic ecosystems. In this study, two artificial neural network (ANN) models including back propagation neural network (BPNN) and adaptive neural-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) approaches and multilinear regression (MLR) model were developed to estimate the DO concentration in the Feitsui Reservoir of northern Taiwan. The input variables of the neural network are determined as water temperature, pH, conductivity, turbidity, suspended solids, total hardness, total alkalinity, and ammonium nitrogen. The performance of the ANN models and MLR model was assessed through the mean absolute error, root mean square error, and correlation coefficient computed from the measured and model-simulated DO values. The results reveal that ANN estimation performances were superior to those of MLR. Comparing to the BPNN and ANFIS models through the performance criteria, the ANFIS model is better than the BPNN model for predicting the DO values. Study results show that the neural network particularly using ANFIS model is able to predict the DO concentrations with reasonable accuracy, suggesting that the neural network is a valuable tool for reservoir management in Taiwan.

Impacts of Climate Change on Stream Temperatures in the Clearwater River, Idaho

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yearsley, J. R.; Chegwidden, O.; Nijssen, B.

2016-12-01

Dworshak Dam in northern Idaho impounds the waters of the North Fork of the Clearwater River, creating a reservoir of approximately 4.278 km3 at full pool elevation. The dam's primary purpose is for flood control and hydroelectric power generation. It also provides important water quality benefits by releasing cold water into the Clearwater River during the summer when conditions become critical for migrating endangered species of salmon. Changes in the climate may have an impact on the ability of Dworshak Dam and Reservoir to provide these benefits. To investigate the potential for extreme outcomes that would limit cold water releases from Dworshak Reservoir and compromise the fishery, we implemented a system of hydrologic and water temperature models that simulate daily-averaged water temperatures in both the riverine and reservoir environments. We used the macroscale hydrologic model, VIC, to simulate land surface water and energy fluxes, the one-dimensional, time-dependent stream temperature model, RBM, to simulate river temperatures and a modified version of CEQUAL-W2 to simulate water temperatures in Dworshak Reservoir. A long-term hydrologically based gridded data set of meteorological forcing provided the input for comparing model results with available observations of flow and water temperature. For purposes of investigating the impacts of climate change, we used the results from ten of the most recent Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) climate change models scenarios in conjunction with the estimates of anthropogenic inputs of climate change gases from two representative concentration pathways (RCP). We compared the simulated results associated with a range of outcomes at critical river locations from the climate scenarios with existing conditions assuming that the reservoir would be operated under a rule curve based on the average reservoir elevation for the period 2006-2015 rule curve and for power demands represented by that same period.

Exploitation and Optimization of Reservoir Performance in Hunton Formation, Oklahoma, Budget Period I, Class Revisit

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kelkar, Mohan

2002-04-02

This report explains the unusual characteristics of West Carney Field based on detailed geological and engineering analyses. A geological history that explains the presence of mobile water and oil in the reservoir was proposed. The combination of matrix and fractures in the reservoir explains the reservoir?s flow behavior. We confirm our hypothesis by matching observed performance with a simulated model and develop procedures for correlating core data to log data so that the analysis can be extended to other, similar fields where the core coverage may be limited.

Implication of remotely sensed data to incorporate land cover effect into a linear reservoir-based rainfall-runoff model

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

This study investigates the effect of land use on the Geomorphological Cascade of unequal Linear Reservoirs (GCUR) model. We use the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) derived from remotely sensed data as a measure of land use. Our approach has two important aspects: (i) it considers the ...

Ground-Water Contributions to Reservoir Storage and the Effect on Estimates of Firm Yield for Reservoirs in Massachusetts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Archfield, Stacey A.; Carlson, Carl S.

2006-01-01

Potential ground-water contributions to reservoir storage were determined for nine reservoirs in Massachusetts that had shorelines in contact with sand and gravel aquifers. The effect of ground water on firm yield was not only substantial, but furthermore, the firm yield of a reservoir in contact with a sand and gravel aquifer was always greater when the ground-water contribution was included in the water balance. Increases in firm yield ranged from 2 to 113 percent, with a median increase in firm yield of 10 percent. Additionally, the increase in firm yield in two reservoirs was greater than 85 percent. This study identified a set of equations that are based on an analytical solution to the ground-water-flow equation for the case of one-dimensional flow in a finite-width aquifer bounded by a linear surface-water feature such as a stream. These equations, which require only five input variables, were incorporated into an existing firm-yield-estimator (FYE) model, and the potential effect of ground water on firm yield was evaluated. To apply the FYE model to a reservoir in Massachusetts, the model requires that the drainage area to the reservoir be clearly defined and that some surface water flows into the reservoir. For surface-water-body shapes having a more realistic representation of a reservoir shoreline than a stream, a comparison of ground-water-flow rates simulated by the ground-water equations with flow rates simulated by a two-dimensional, finite-difference ground-water-flow model indicate that the agreement between the simulated flow rates is within ?10 percent when the ratio of the distance from the reservoir shoreline to the aquifer boundary to the length of shoreline in contact with the aquifer is between values of 0.5 and 3.5. Idealized reservoir-aquifer systems were assumed to verify that the ground-water-flow equations were implemented correctly into the existing FYE model; however, the modified FYE model has not been validated through a comparison of simulated and observed data. A comparison of simulated and observed reservoir water levels would further define limitations to the applicability of the ground-water-flow equations to reservoirs in Massachusetts whose shorelines are in contact with a sand and gravel aquifer.

Simulation Study of CO2-EOR in Tight Oil Reservoirs with Complex Fracture Geometries

PubMed Central

Zuloaga-Molero, Pavel; Yu, Wei; Xu, Yifei; Sepehrnoori, Kamy; Li, Baozhen

2016-01-01

The recent development of tight oil reservoirs has led to an increase in oil production in the past several years due to the progress in horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing. However, the expected oil recovery factor from these reservoirs is still very low. CO2-based enhanced oil recovery is a suitable solution to improve the recovery. One challenge of the estimation of the recovery is to properly model complex hydraulic fracture geometries which are often assumed to be planar due to the limitation of local grid refinement approach. More flexible methods like the use of unstructured grids can significantly increase the computational demand. In this study, we introduce an efficient methodology of the embedded discrete fracture model to explicitly model complex fracture geometries. We build a compositional reservoir model to investigate the effects of complex fracture geometries on performance of CO2 Huff-n-Puff and CO2 continuous injection. The results confirm that the appropriate modelling of the fracture geometry plays a critical role in the estimation of the incremental oil recovery. This study also provides new insights into the understanding of the impacts of CO2 molecular diffusion, reservoir permeability, and natural fractures on the performance of CO2-EOR processes in tight oil reservoirs. PMID:27628131

A simple, mass balance model of carbon flow in a controlled ecological life support system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Garland, Jay L.

1989-01-01

Internal cycling of chemical elements is a fundamental aspect of a Controlled Ecological Life Support System (CELSS). Mathematical models are useful tools for evaluating fluxes and reservoirs of elements associated with potential CELSS configurations. A simple mass balance model of carbon flow in CELSS was developed based on data from the CELSS Breadboard project at Kennedy Space Center. All carbon reservoirs and fluxes were calculated based on steady state conditions and modelled using linear, donor-controlled transfer coefficients. The linear expression of photosynthetic flux was replaced with Michaelis-Menten kinetics based on dynamical analysis of the model which found that the latter produced more adequate model output. Sensitivity analysis of the model indicated that accurate determination of the maximum rate of gross primary production is critical to the development of an accurate model of carbon flow. Atmospheric carbon dioxide was particularly sensitive to changes in photosynthetic rate. The small reservoir of CO2 relative to large CO2 fluxes increases the potential for volatility in CO2 concentration. Feedback control mechanisms regulating CO2 concentration will probably be necessary in a CELSS to reduce this system instability.

An Equivalent Fracture Modeling Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Shaohua; Zhang, Shujuan; Yu, Gaoming; Xu, Aiyun

2017-12-01

3D fracture network model is built based on discrete fracture surfaces, which are simulated based on fracture length, dip, aperture, height and so on. The interesting area of Wumishan Formation of Renqiu buried hill reservoir is about 57 square kilometer and the thickness of target strata is more than 2000 meters. In addition with great fracture density, the fracture simulation and upscaling of discrete fracture network model of Wumishan Formation are very intense computing. In order to solve this problem, a method of equivalent fracture modeling is proposed. First of all, taking the fracture interpretation data obtained from imaging logging and conventional logging as the basic data, establish the reservoir level model, and then under the constraint of reservoir level model, take fault distance analysis model as the second variable, establish fracture density model by Sequential Gaussian Simulation method. Increasing the width, height and length of fracture, at the same time decreasing its density in order to keep the similar porosity and permeability after upscaling discrete fracture network model. In this way, the fracture model of whole interesting area can be built within an accepted time.

Sizes of prey consumed by two pelagic predators in US reservoirs: Implications for quantifying biomass of available prey

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dennerline, D.E.; Van Den Avyle, M.J.

2000-01-01

Striped bass Morone saxatilis and hybrid bass M. saxatilis x M. chrysops have been stocked to establish fisheries in many US reservoirs, but success has been limited by a poor understanding of relations between prey biomass and predator growth and survival. To define sizes of prey that are morphologically available, we developed predictive relationships between predator length, mouth dimensions, and expected maximum prey size; predictions were then validated using published data on sizes of clupeid prey (Dorosoma spp.) in five US reservoirs. Further, we compared the biomass of prey considered available to predators using two forms of a length-based consumption model - a previously published AP/P ratio and a revised model based on our results. Predictions of maximum prey size using predator GW were consistent with observed prey sizes in US reservoirs. Length of consumed Dorosoma was significantly, but weakly, correlated with predator length in four of the five reservoirs (r2 = 0.006-0.336, P 150 mm TL) were abundant. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V.

Facies Modeling Using 3D Pre-Stack Simultaneous Seismic Inversion and Multi-Attribute Probability Neural Network Transform in the Wattenberg Field, Colorado

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harryandi, Sheila

The Niobrara/Codell unconventional tight reservoir play at Wattenberg Field, Colorado has potentially two billion barrels of oil equivalent requiring hundreds of wells to access this resource. The Reservoir Characterization Project (RCP), in conjunction with Anadarko Petroleum Corporation (APC), began reservoir characterization research to determine how to increase reservoir recovery while maximizing operational efficiency. Past research results indicate that targeting the highest rock quality within the reservoir section for hydraulic fracturing is optimal for improving horizontal well stimulation through multi-stage hydraulic fracturing. The reservoir is highly heterogeneous, consisting of alternating chalks and marls. Modeling the facies within the reservoir is very important to be able to capture the heterogeneity at the well-bore scale; this heterogeneity is then upscaled from the borehole scale to the seismic scale to distribute the heterogeneity in the inter-well space. I performed facies clustering analysis to create several facies defining the reservoir interval in the RCP Wattenberg Field study area. Each facies can be expressed in terms of a range of rock property values from wells obtained by cluster analysis. I used the facies classification from the wells to guide the pre-stack seismic inversion and multi-attribute transform. The seismic data extended the facies information and rock quality information from the wells. By obtaining this information from the 3D facies model, I generated a facies volume capturing the reservoir heterogeneity throughout a ten square mile study-area within the field area. Recommendations are made based on the facies modeling, which include the location for future hydraulic fracturing/re-fracturing treatments to improve recovery from the reservoir, and potential deeper intervals for future exploration drilling targets.

A model study of the coupled water quality and hydrodynamics in YuQiao Reservoir of Haihe River Basin, People's Republic of China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, X.; Liu, J.; Peng, W.; Wang, Y.

2007-05-01

In recent years, eutrophication has become one of the most serious of global water pollution problems, especially in reservoirs, which is menacing the security of domestic water supplies. As the unique drinking water source of Tianjin within the Haihe River basin of Hebei Province, China, YuQiao Reservoir has been polluted and its eutrophic state is serious. To make clear the physical and chemical relationship between transport and transformation of the polluted water, a model package was developed to compute the hydrodynamic field and mass transport processes including total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) for YuQiao Reservoir. The hydrodynamic model was driven by observed winds and daily measured flow data to simulate the seasonal water cycle of the reservoir. The mass transport and transformation processes of TN and TP was based on the unsteady diffusion equations, driven by observed meteorological forcings and external loadings, with the fluxes through the bottom of the reservoir, plant (algal) photosynthesis, and respiration as internal sources and sinks. The solution of these equations uses the finite volume method and alternating direction implicit (ADI) scheme. The model was calibrated and verified by using the data observed from YuQiao Reservoir in two different years. The results showed that in YuQiao Reservoir, the wind-driven current is an important style of lake current, while the water quality is decreasing from east to west because of the external polluted loadings. There was good agreement between the simulated and measured values. Advection is the main process driving the water quality impacts from the inflow river, and diffusion and biochemical processes dominate in center of the reservoir. So it is necessary to build a pre-pond to reduce the external loadings into the reservoir.

Time-lapse seismic waveform modelling and attribute analysis using hydromechanical models for a deep reservoir undergoing depletion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Y.-X.; Angus, D. A.; Blanchard, T. D.; Wang, G.-L.; Yuan, S.-Y.; Garcia, A.

2016-04-01

Extraction of fluids from subsurface reservoirs induces changes in pore pressure, leading not only to geomechanical changes, but also perturbations in seismic velocities and hence observable seismic attributes. Time-lapse seismic analysis can be used to estimate changes in subsurface hydromechanical properties and thus act as a monitoring tool for geological reservoirs. The ability to observe and quantify changes in fluid, stress and strain using seismic techniques has important implications for monitoring risk not only for petroleum applications but also for geological storage of CO2 and nuclear waste scenarios. In this paper, we integrate hydromechanical simulation results with rock physics models and full-waveform seismic modelling to assess time-lapse seismic attribute resolution for dynamic reservoir characterization and hydromechanical model calibration. The time-lapse seismic simulations use a dynamic elastic reservoir model based on a North Sea deep reservoir undergoing large pressure changes. The time-lapse seismic traveltime shifts and time strains calculated from the modelled and processed synthetic data sets (i.e. pre-stack and post-stack data) are in a reasonable agreement with the true earth models, indicating the feasibility of using 1-D strain rock physics transform and time-lapse seismic processing methodology. Estimated vertical traveltime shifts for the overburden and the majority of the reservoir are within ±1 ms of the true earth model values, indicating that the time-lapse technique is sufficiently accurate for predicting overburden velocity changes and hence geomechanical effects. Characterization of deeper structure below the overburden becomes less accurate, where more advanced time-lapse seismic processing and migration is needed to handle the complex geometry and strong lateral induced velocity changes. Nevertheless, both migrated full-offset pre-stack and near-offset post-stack data image the general features of both the overburden and reservoir units. More importantly, the results from this study indicate that integrated seismic and hydromechanical modelling can help constrain time-lapse uncertainty and hence reduce risk due to fluid extraction and injection.

Hydrodynamic modeling of petroleum reservoirs using simulator MUFITS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Afanasyev, Andrey

2015-04-01

MUFITS is new noncommercial software for numerical modeling of subsurface processes in various applications (www.mufits.imec.msu.ru). To this point, the simulator was used for modeling nonisothermal flows in geothermal reservoirs and for modeling underground carbon dioxide storage. In this work, we present recent extension of the code to petroleum reservoirs. The simulator can be applied in conventional black oil modeling, but it also utilizes a more complicated models for volatile oil and gas condensate reservoirs as well as for oil rim fields. We give a brief overview of the code by providing the description of internal representation of reservoir models, which are constructed of grid blocks, interfaces, stock tanks as well as of pipe segments and pipe junctions for modeling wells and surface networks. For conventional black oil approach, we present the simulation results for SPE comparative tests. We propose an accelerated compositional modeling method for sub- and supercritical flows subjected to various phase equilibria, particularly to three-phase equilibria of vapour-liquid-liquid type. The method is based on the calculation of the thermodynamic potential of reservoir fluid as a function of pressure, total enthalpy and total composition and storing its values as a spline table, which is used in hydrodynamic simulation for accelerated PVT properties prediction. We provide the description of both the spline calculation procedure and the flashing algorithm. We evaluate the thermodynamic potential for a mixture of two pseudo-components modeling the heavy and light hydrocarbon fractions. We develop a technique for converting black oil PVT tables to the potential, which can be used for in-situ hydrocarbons multiphase equilibria prediction under sub- and supercritical conditions, particularly, in gas condensate and volatile oil reservoirs. We simulate recovery from a reservoir subject to near-critical initial conditions for hydrocarbon mixture. We acknowledge financial support by a Grant from the president of the Russian Federation (SP-2222.2012.5) and by Russian foundation for basic research (RFBR 15-31-20585).

The identification of multi-cave combinations in carbonate reservoirs based on sparsity constraint inverse spectral decomposition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Qian; Di, Bangrang; Wei, Jianxin; Yuan, Sanyi; Si, Wenpeng

2016-12-01

Sparsity constraint inverse spectral decomposition (SCISD) is a time-frequency analysis method based on the convolution model, in which minimizing the l1 norm of the time-frequency spectrum of the seismic signal is adopted as a sparsity constraint term. The SCISD method has higher time-frequency resolution and more concentrated time-frequency distribution than the conventional spectral decomposition methods, such as short-time Fourier transformation (STFT), continuous-wavelet transform (CWT) and S-transform. Due to these good features, the SCISD method has gradually been used in low-frequency anomaly detection, horizon identification and random noise reduction for sandstone and shale reservoirs. However, it has not yet been used in carbonate reservoir prediction. The carbonate fractured-vuggy reservoir is the major hydrocarbon reservoir in the Halahatang area of the Tarim Basin, north-west China. If reasonable predictions for the type of multi-cave combinations are not made, it may lead to an incorrect explanation for seismic responses of the multi-cave combinations. Furthermore, it will result in large errors in reserves estimation of the carbonate reservoir. In this paper, the energy and phase spectra of the SCISD are applied to identify the multi-cave combinations in carbonate reservoirs. The examples of physical model data and real seismic data illustrate that the SCISD method can detect the combination types and the number of caves of multi-cave combinations and can provide a favourable basis for the subsequent reservoir prediction and quantitative estimation of the cave-type carbonate reservoir volume.

Forecasting of cyanobacterial density in Torrão reservoir using artificial neural networks.

PubMed

Torres, Rita; Pereira, Elisa; Vasconcelos, Vítor; Teles, Luís Oliva

2011-06-01

The ability of general regression neural networks (GRNN) to forecast the density of cyanobacteria in the Torrão reservoir (Tâmega river, Portugal), in a period of 15 days, based on three years of collected physical and chemical data, was assessed. Several models were developed and 176 were selected based on their correlation values for the verification series. A time lag of 11 was used, equivalent to one sample (periods of 15 days in the summer and 30 days in the winter). Several combinations of the series were used. Input and output data collected from three depths of the reservoir were applied (surface, euphotic zone limit and bottom). The model that presented a higher average correlation value presented the correlations 0.991; 0.843; 0.978 for training, verification and test series. This model had the three series independent in time: first test series, then verification series and, finally, training series. Only six input variables were considered significant to the performance of this model: ammonia, phosphates, dissolved oxygen, water temperature, pH and water evaporation, physical and chemical parameters referring to the three depths of the reservoir. These variables are common to the next four best models produced and, although these included other input variables, their performance was not better than the selected best model.

Estimating Water Levels with Google Earth Engine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lucero, E.; Russo, T. A.; Zentner, M.; May, J.; Nguy-Robertson, A. L.

2016-12-01

Reservoirs serve multiple functions and are vital for storage, electricity generation, and flood control. For many areas, traditional ground-based reservoir measurements may not be available or data dissemination may be problematic. Consistent monitoring of reservoir levels in data-poor areas can be achieved through remote sensing, providing information to researchers and the international community. Estimates of trends and relative reservoir volume can be used to identify water supply vulnerability, anticipate low power generation, and predict flood risk. Image processing with automated cloud computing provides opportunities to study multiple geographic areas in near real-time. We demonstrate the prediction capability of a cloud environment for identifying water trends at reservoirs in the US, and then apply the method to data-poor areas in North Korea, Iran, Azerbaijan, Zambia, and India. The Google Earth Engine cloud platform hosts remote sensing data and can be used to automate reservoir level estimation with multispectral imagery. We combine automated cloud-based analysis from Landsat image classification to identify reservoir surface area trends and radar altimetry to identify reservoir level trends. The study estimates water level trends using three years of data from four domestic reservoirs to validate the remote sensing method, and five foreign reservoirs to demonstrate the method application. We report correlations between ground-based reservoir level measurements in the US and our remote sensing methods, and correlations between the cloud analysis and altimetry data for reservoirs in data-poor areas. The availability of regular satellite imagery and an automated, near real-time application method provides the necessary datasets for further temporal analysis, reservoir modeling, and flood forecasting. All statements of fact, analysis, or opinion are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense or any of its components or the U.S. Government

An Analysis Model for Water Cone Subsidence in Bottom Water Drive Reservoirs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jianjun; Xu, Hui; Wu, Shucheng; Yang, Chao; Kong, lingxiao; Zeng, Baoquan; Xu, Haixia; Qu, Tailai

2017-12-01

Water coning in bottom water drive reservoirs, which will result in earlier water breakthrough, rapid increase in water cut and low recovery level, has drawn tremendous attention in petroleum engineering field. As one simple and effective method to inhibit bottom water coning, shut-in coning control is usually preferred in oilfield to control the water cone and furthermore to enhance economic performance. However, most of the water coning researchers just have been done on investigation of the coning behavior as it grows up, the reported studies for water cone subsidence are very scarce. The goal of this work is to present an analytical model for water cone subsidence to analyze the subsidence of water cone when the well shut in. Based on Dupuit critical oil production rate formula, an analytical model is developed to estimate the initial water cone shape at the point of critical drawdown. Then, with the initial water cone shape equation, we propose an analysis model for water cone subsidence in bottom water reservoir reservoirs. Model analysis and several sensitivity studies are conducted. This work presents accurate and fast analytical model to perform the water cone subsidence in bottom water drive reservoirs. To consider the recent interests in development of bottom drive reservoirs, our approach provides a promising technique for better understanding the subsidence of water cone.

An efficient assisted history matching and uncertainty quantification workflow using Gaussian processes proxy models and variogram based sensitivity analysis: GP-VARS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rana, Sachin; Ertekin, Turgay; King, Gregory R.

2018-05-01

Reservoir history matching is frequently viewed as an optimization problem which involves minimizing misfit between simulated and observed data. Many gradient and evolutionary strategy based optimization algorithms have been proposed to solve this problem which typically require a large number of numerical simulations to find feasible solutions. Therefore, a new methodology referred to as GP-VARS is proposed in this study which uses forward and inverse Gaussian processes (GP) based proxy models combined with a novel application of variogram analysis of response surface (VARS) based sensitivity analysis to efficiently solve high dimensional history matching problems. Empirical Bayes approach is proposed to optimally train GP proxy models for any given data. The history matching solutions are found via Bayesian optimization (BO) on forward GP models and via predictions of inverse GP model in an iterative manner. An uncertainty quantification method using MCMC sampling in conjunction with GP model is also presented to obtain a probabilistic estimate of reservoir properties and estimated ultimate recovery (EUR). An application of the proposed GP-VARS methodology on PUNQ-S3 reservoir is presented in which it is shown that GP-VARS provides history match solutions in approximately four times less numerical simulations as compared to the differential evolution (DE) algorithm. Furthermore, a comparison of uncertainty quantification results obtained by GP-VARS, EnKF and other previously published methods shows that the P50 estimate of oil EUR obtained by GP-VARS is in close agreement to the true values for the PUNQ-S3 reservoir.

Application of Landsat 8 OLI Image and Empirical Model for Water Trophic Status Identification of Riam Kanan Reservoir, Banjar, South Kalimantan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saputra, A. N.; Danoedoro, P.; Kamal, M.

2017-12-01

Remote sensing has a potential for observing, mapping and monitoring the quality of lake water. Riam Kanan is a reservoir which has a water resource from Riam Kanan River with the area width of its watershed about 1043 km2. The accumulation of nutrient in this reservoir simultaneously deteriorates the condition of waters, which can cause an increasingly growth of harm micro algae or Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs). This research applied Carlson’s trophic status index (CTSI) at Riam Kanan Reservoir using Landsat-8 OLI satellite image. The Landsat 8 OLI image was recorded on 14 August 2016 and was used in this research based on its surface reflectance values. The result of correlation test shows that band 3 of the image as coefficient of chlorophyll-a parameter, channel 2 as coefficient of phosphate, and band ratio of SDT as coefficient of SDT. Based on the result of modelling using CTSI, the majority scale of CTSI score at Riam Kanan Reservoir is between 60 to70 in medium eutrophic class. The class of medium eutrophic at Riam Kanan Reservoir potentially emerges the threat both of the improvement of water fertility and the reduction of water quality. Improvement of the fertility is apprehensive since it can trigger an explosion of micro algae which will endanger the ecological condition at the area of Riam Kanan Reservoir.

Risk Based Reservoir Operations Using Ensemble Streamflow Predictions for Lake Mendocino in Mendocino County, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delaney, C.; Mendoza, J.; Whitin, B.; Hartman, R. K.

2017-12-01

Ensemble Forecast Operations (EFO) is a risk based approach of reservoir flood operations that incorporates ensemble streamflow predictions (ESPs) made by NOAA's California-Nevada River Forecast Center (CNRFC). With the EFO approach, each member of an ESP is individually modeled to forecast system conditions and calculate risk of reaching critical operational thresholds. Reservoir release decisions are computed which seek to manage forecasted risk to established risk tolerance levels. A water management model was developed for Lake Mendocino, a 111,000 acre-foot reservoir located near Ukiah, California, to evaluate the viability of the EFO alternative to improve water supply reliability but not increase downstream flood risk. Lake Mendocino is a dual use reservoir, which is owned and operated for flood control by the United States Army Corps of Engineers and is operated for water supply by the Sonoma County Water Agency. Due to recent changes in the operations of an upstream hydroelectric facility, this reservoir has suffered from water supply reliability issues since 2007. The EFO alternative was simulated using a 26-year (1985-2010) ESP hindcast generated by the CNRFC, which approximates flow forecasts for 61 ensemble members for a 15-day horizon. Model simulation results of the EFO alternative demonstrate a 36% increase in median end of water year (September 30) storage levels over existing operations. Additionally, model results show no increase in occurrence of flows above flood stage for points downstream of Lake Mendocino. This investigation demonstrates that the EFO alternative may be a viable approach for managing Lake Mendocino for multiple purposes (water supply, flood mitigation, ecosystems) and warrants further investigation through additional modeling and analysis.

Investigation on trophic state index by artificial neural networks (case study: Dez Dam of Iran)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saghi, H.; Karimi, L.; Javid, A. H.

2015-06-01

Dam construction and surface runoff control is one of the most common approaches for water-needs supply of human societies. However, the increasing development of social activities and hence the subsequent increase in environmental pollutants leads to deterioration of water quality in dam reservoirs and eutrophication process could be intensified. So, the water quality of reservoirs is now one of the key factors in operation and water quality management of reservoirs. Hence, maintaining the quality of the stored water and identification and examination of changes along time has been a constant concern of humans that involves the water authorities. Traditionally, empirical trophic state indices of dam reservoirs often defined based on changes in concentration of effective factors (nutrients) and its consequences (increase in chlorophyll a), have been used as an efficient tool in the definition of dam reservoirs quality. In recent years, modeling techniques such as artificial neural networks have enhanced the prediction capability and the accuracy of these studies. In this study, artificial neural networks have been applied to analyze eutrophication process in the Dez Dam reservoir in Iran. In this paper, feed forward neural network with one input layer, one hidden layer and one output layer was applied using MATLAB neural network toolbox for trophic state index (TSI) analysis in the Dez Dam reservoir. The input data of this network are effective parameters in the eutrophication: nitrogen cycle parameters and phosphorous cycle parameters and parameters that will be changed by eutrophication: Chl a, SD, DO and the output data is TSI. Based on the results from estimation of modified Carlson trophic state index, Dez Dam reservoir is considered to be eutrophic in the early July to mid-November and would be mesotrophic with decrease in temperature. Therefore, a decrease in water quality of the dam reservoir during the warm seasons is expectable. The results indicated that artificial neural network (ANN) is a suitable tool for quality modeling of reservoir of dam and increment and decrement of nutrients in trend of eutrophication. Therefore, ANN is a suitable tool for quality modeling of reservoir of dam.

Modelling of water inflow to the Kolyma reservoir in historical and future climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lebedeva, Liudmila; Makarieva, Olga; Ushakov, Mikhail

2017-04-01

Kolyma hydropower plant is the most important electricity producer in the Magadan region, North of Russian Far East. North-Eastern Russia has sparse hydrometeorological network. The density is one hydrological gauge per 10 250 km2. Assessment of water inflow to the Kolyma reservoir is complicated by mountainous relief with altitudes more than 2000 m a.s.l., continuous permafrost and sparse data. The study aimed at application of process-based hydrological model to simulate water inflow to the Kolyma reservoir in historical time period and according to projections of future climate. Watershed area of the Kolyma reservoir is 61 500 km2. Dominant landscapes are mountainous tundra and larch forest. The Hydrograph model used in the study explicitly simulates heat and water dynamics in the soil profile thus is able to reflect ground thawing/freezing and change of soil storage capacity through the summer in permafrost environments. The key model parameters are vegetation and soil properties that relate to land surface classes. They are assessed based on field observations and literature data, don't need calibration and could be transferred to other basins with similar landscapes. Model time step is daily, meteorological input are air temperature, precipitation and air moisture. Parameter set that was firstly developed in the small research basins of the Kolyma water-balance station was transferred to middle and large river basins in the region. Precipitation dependences on altitude and air temperature inversions are accounted for in the modelling routine. Successful model application to six river basins with areas from 65 to 42600 km2 within the watershed of the Kolyma reservoir suggests that simulation results for the water inflow to the reservoir are satisfactory. Modelling according to projections of future climate change showed that air temperature increase will likely lead to earlier snowmelt and lower freshet peaks but doesn't change total inflow volume. The study was partially supported by Russian Foundation for Basic Research (project No 15-35-21146 mola and 16-35-50061)

Ecological risk assessment based on IHA-RVA in the lower Xiaolangdi reservoir under changed hydrological situation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bai, Tao; Ma, Pan-pan; Kan, Yan-bin; Huang, Qiang

2017-12-01

Ecological risk assessment of river is an important content for protection and improvement of ecological environment. In this paper, taking Xiaolangdi reservoir for example, ecological risk assessments are studied based on the 1956-1997 and 2002-2008 dairy runoff data as the pre and post of construction of Xiaolangdi reservoir. Considering pre and post hydrological regime of construction of Xiaolangdi, ecological risk assessment index systems of downstream are established based on Index of Hydrologic Alteration-Range of Variability Approach method (IHA-RVA), which considering characters of flow, time, frequency, delay and change rate. Then ecological risk fuzzy comprehensive evaluation assessment model downstream is established based on risk index and RVA method. The results show that after the construction of Xiaolangdi reservoir, ecological risk occurred in the downstream of Yellow River for changed hydrological indexes, such as monthly average flow, frequency and duration of extreme annual flow and so on, which probably destroy the whole ecosystems of the river. For example, ecological risk downstream of Xiaolangdi reservoir upgrade to level two in 2008. Research results make reference values and scientific basis both in ecological risk assessment and management of reservoir after construction.

The Research on Borehole Stability in Depleted Reservoir and Caprock: Using the Geophysics Logging Data

PubMed Central

Deng, Jingen; Luo, Yong; Guo, Shisheng; Zhang, Haishan; Tan, Qiang; Zhao, Kai; Hu, Lianbo

2013-01-01

Long-term oil and gas exploitation in reservoir will lead to pore pressure depletion. The pore pressure depletion will result in changes of horizontal in-situ stresses both in reservoirs and caprock formations. Using the geophysics logging data, the magnitude and orientation changes of horizontal stresses in caprock and reservoir are studied. Furthermore, the borehole stability can be affected by in-situ stresses changes. To address this issue, the dehydration from caprock to reservoir and roof effect of caprock are performed. Based on that, the influence scope and magnitude of horizontal stresses reduction in caprock above the depleted reservoirs are estimated. The effects of development on borehole stability in both reservoir and caprock are studied step by step with the above geomechanical model. PMID:24228021

Optimal water resource allocation modelling in the Lowveld of Zimbabwe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mhiribidi, Delight; Nobert, Joel; Gumindoga, Webster; Rwasoka, Donald T.

2018-05-01

The management and allocation of water from multi-reservoir systems is complex and thus requires dynamic modelling systems to achieve optimality. A multi-reservoir system in the Southern Lowveld of Zimbabwe is used for irrigation of sugarcane estates that produce sugar for both local and export consumption. The system is burdened with water allocation problems, made worse by decommissioning of dams. Thus the aim of this research was to develop an operating policy model for the Lowveld multi-reservoir system.The Mann Kendall Trend and Wilcoxon Signed-Rank tests were used to assess the variability of historic monthly rainfall and dam inflows for the period 1899-2015. The WEAP model was set up to evaluate the water allocation system of the catchment and come-up with a reference scenario for the 2015/2016 hydrologic year. Stochastic Dynamic Programming approach was used for optimisation of the multi-reservoirs releases.Results showed no significant trend in the rainfall but a significantly decreasing trend in inflows (p < 0.05). The water allocation model (WEAP) showed significant deficits ( ˜ 40 %) in irrigation water allocation in the reference scenario. The optimal rule curves for all the twelve months for each reservoir were obtained and considered to be a proper guideline for solving multi- reservoir management problems within the catchment. The rule curves are effective tools in guiding decision makers in the release of water without emptying the reservoirs but at the same time satisfying the demands based on the inflow, initial storage and end of month storage.

Optimization of Well Configuration for a Sedimentary Enhanced Geothermal Reservoir

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhou, Mengnan; Cho, JaeKyoung; Zerpa, Luis E.

The extraction of geothermal energy in the form of hot water from sedimentary rock formations could expand the current geothermal energy resources toward new regions. From previous work, we observed that sedimentary geothermal reservoirs with relatively low permeability would require the application of enhancement techniques (e.g., well hydraulic stimulation) to achieve commercial production/injection rates. In this paper we extend our previous work to develop a methodology to determine the optimum well configuration that maximizes the hydraulic performance of the geothermal system. The geothermal systems considered consist of one vertical well doublet system with hydraulic fractures, and three horizontal well configurationsmore » with open-hole completion, longitudinal fractures and transverse fractures, respectively. A commercial thermal reservoir simulation is used to evaluate the geothermal reservoir performance using as design parameters the well spacing and the length of the horizontal wells. The results obtained from the numerical simulations are used to build a response surface model based on the multiple linear regression method. The optimum configuration of the sedimentary geothermal systems is obtained from the analysis of the response surface model. The proposed methodology is applied to a case study based on a reservoir model of the Lyons sandstone formation, located in the Wattenberg field, Denver-Julesburg basin, Colorado.« less

Building a 3D faulted a priori model for stratigraphic inversion: Illustration of a new methodology applied on a North Sea field case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rainaud, Jean-François; Clochard, Vincent; Delépine, Nicolas; Crabié, Thomas; Poudret, Mathieu; Perrin, Michel; Klein, Emmanuel

2018-07-01

Accurate reservoir characterization is needed all along the development of an oil and gas field study. It helps building 3D numerical reservoir simulation models for estimating the original oil and gas volumes in place and for simulating fluid flow behaviors. At a later stage of the field development, reservoir characterization can also help deciding which recovery techniques need to be used for fluids extraction. In complex media, such as faulted reservoirs, flow behavior predictions within volumes close to faults can be a very challenging issue. During the development plan, it is necessary to determine which types of communication exist between faults or which potential barriers exist for fluid flows. The solving of these issues rests on accurate fault characterization. In most cases, faults are not preserved along reservoir characterization workflows. The memory of the interpreted faults from seismic is not kept during seismic inversion and further interpretation of the result. The goal of our study is at first to integrate a 3D fault network as a priori information into a model-based stratigraphic inversion procedure. Secondly, we apply our methodology on a well-known oil and gas case study over a typical North Sea field (UK Northern North Sea) in order to demonstrate its added value for determining reservoir properties. More precisely, the a priori model is composed of several geological units populated by physical attributes, they are extrapolated from well log data following the deposition mode, but usually a priori model building methods respect neither the 3D fault geometry nor the stratification dips on the fault sides. We address this difficulty by applying an efficient flattening method for each stratigraphic unit in our workflow. Even before seismic inversion, the obtained stratigraphic model has been directly used to model synthetic seismic on our case study. Comparisons between synthetic seismic obtained from our 3D fault network model give much lower residuals than with a "basic" stratigraphic model. Finally, we apply our model-based inversion considering both faulted and non-faulted a priori models. By comparing the rock impedances results obtain in the two cases, we can see a better delineation of the Brent-reservoir compartments by using the 3D faulted a priori model built with our method.

History matching through dynamic decision-making

PubMed Central

Maschio, Célio; Santos, Antonio Alberto; Schiozer, Denis; Rocha, Anderson

2017-01-01

History matching is the process of modifying the uncertain attributes of a reservoir model to reproduce the real reservoir performance. It is a classical reservoir engineering problem and plays an important role in reservoir management since the resulting models are used to support decisions in other tasks such as economic analysis and production strategy. This work introduces a dynamic decision-making optimization framework for history matching problems in which new models are generated based on, and guided by, the dynamic analysis of the data of available solutions. The optimization framework follows a ‘learning-from-data’ approach, and includes two optimizer components that use machine learning techniques, such as unsupervised learning and statistical analysis, to uncover patterns of input attributes that lead to good output responses. These patterns are used to support the decision-making process while generating new, and better, history matched solutions. The proposed framework is applied to a benchmark model (UNISIM-I-H) based on the Namorado field in Brazil. Results show the potential the dynamic decision-making optimization framework has for improving the quality of history matching solutions using a substantial smaller number of simulations when compared with a previous work on the same benchmark. PMID:28582413

Ground-based hyperspectral imaging and terrestrial laser scanning for fracture characterization in the Mississippian Boone Formation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Lei; Khan, Shuhab D.; Sarmiento, Sergio; Lakshmikantha, M. R.; Zhou, Huawei

2017-12-01

Petroleum geoscientists have been using cores and well logs to study source rocks and reservoirs, however, the inherent discontinuous nature of these data cannot account for horizontal heterogeneities. Modern exploitation requires better understanding of important source rocks and reservoirs at outcrop scale. Remote sensing of outcrops is becoming a first order tool for reservoir analog studies including horizontal heterogeneities. This work used ground-based hyperspectral imaging, terrestrial laser scanning (TLS), and high-resolution photography to study a roadcut of the Boone Formation at Bella Vista, northwest Arkansas, and developed an outcrop model for reservoir analog analyses. The petroliferous Boone Formation consists of fossiliferous limestones interbedded with chert of early Mississippian age. We used remote sensing techniques to identify rock types and to collect 3D geometrical data. Mixture tuned matched filtering classification of hyperspectral data show that the outcrop is mostly limestones with interbedded chert nodules. 1315 fractures were classified according to their strata-bounding relationships, among these, larger fractures are dominantly striking in ENE - WSW directions. Fracture extraction data show that chert holds more fractures than limestones, and both vertical and horizontal heterogeneities exist in chert nodule distribution. Utilizing ground-based remote sensing, we have assembled a virtual outcrop model to extract mineral composition as well as fracture data from the model. We inferred anisotropy in vertical fracture permeability based on the dominancy of fracture orientations, the preferential distribution of fractures and distribution of chert nodules. These data are beneficial in reservoir analogs to study rock mechanics and fluid flow, and to improve well performances.

Flow units classification for geostatisitical three-dimensional modeling of a non-marine sandstone reservoir: A case study from the Paleocene Funing Formation of the Gaoji Oilfield, east China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Penghui; Zhang, Jinliang; Wang, Jinkai; Li, Ming; Liang, Jie; Wu, Yingli

2018-05-01

Flow units classification can be used in reservoir characterization. In addition, characterizing the reservoir interval into flow units is an effective way to simulate the reservoir. Paraflow units (PFUs), the second level of flow units, are used to estimate the spatial distribution of continental clastic reservoirs at the detailed reservoir description stage. In this study, we investigate a nonroutine methodology to predict the external and internal distribution of PFUs. The methodology outlined enables the classification of PFUs using sandstone core samples and log data. The relationships obtained between porosity, permeability and pore throat aperture radii (r35) values were established for core and log data obtained from 26 wells from the Funing Formation, Gaoji Oilfield, Subei Basin, China. The present study refines predicted PFUs at logged (0.125-m) intervals, whose scale is much smaller than routine methods. Meanwhile, three-dimensional models are built using sequential indicator simulation to characterize PFUs in wells. Four distinct PFUs are classified and located based on the statistical methodology of cluster analysis, and each PFU has different seepage ability. The results of this study demonstrate the obtained models are able to quantify reservoir heterogeneity. Due to different petrophysical characteristics and seepage ability, PFUs have a significant impact on the distribution of the remaining oil. Considering these allows a more accurate understanding of reservoir quality, especially within non-marine sandstone reservoirs.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lefeuvre, F.E.; Wrolstad, K.H.; Zou, Ke Shan

Total and Unocal estimated sand-shale ratios in gas reservoirs from the upper Tertiary clastics of Myanmar. They separately used deterministic pre-stack and statistical post-stack seismic attribute analysis calibrated at two wells to objectively extrapolate the lithologies and reservoir properties several kilometers away from the wells. The two approaches were then integrated and lead to a unique distribution of the sands and shales in the reservoir which fit in the known regional geological model. For the sands, the fluid distributions (gas and brine) were also estimated as well as the porosity, water saturation, thickness and clay content of the sands. Thismore » was made possible by using precise elastic modeling based on the Biot-Gassmann equation in order to integrate the effects of reservoir properties on seismic signatures.« less

Design and performance evaluation of a simplified dynamic model for combined sewer overflows in pumped sewer systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Daal-Rombouts, Petra; Sun, Siao; Langeveld, Jeroen; Bertrand-Krajewski, Jean-Luc; Clemens, François

2016-07-01

Optimisation or real time control (RTC) studies in wastewater systems increasingly require rapid simulations of sewer systems in extensive catchments. To reduce the simulation time calibrated simplified models are applied, with the performance generally based on the goodness of fit of the calibration. In this research the performance of three simplified and a full hydrodynamic (FH) model for two catchments are compared based on the correct determination of CSO event occurrences and of the total discharged volumes to the surface water. Simplified model M1 consists of a rainfall runoff outflow (RRO) model only. M2 combines the RRO model with a static reservoir model for the sewer behaviour. M3 comprises the RRO model and a dynamic reservoir model. The dynamic reservoir characteristics were derived from FH model simulations. It was found that M2 and M3 are able to describe the sewer behaviour of the catchments, contrary to M1. The preferred model structure depends on the quality of the information (geometrical database and monitoring data) available for the design and calibration of the model. Finally, calibrated simplified models are shown to be preferable to uncalibrated FH models when performing optimisation or RTC studies.

Incorporating teleconnection information into reservoir operating policies using Stochastic Dynamic Programming and a Hidden Markov Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turner, Sean; Galelli, Stefano; Wilcox, Karen

2015-04-01

Water reservoir systems are often affected by recurring large-scale ocean-atmospheric anomalies, known as teleconnections, that cause prolonged periods of climatological drought. Accurate forecasts of these events -- at lead times in the order of weeks and months -- may enable reservoir operators to take more effective release decisions to improve the performance of their systems. In practice this might mean a more reliable water supply system, a more profitable hydropower plant or a more sustainable environmental release policy. To this end, climate indices, which represent the oscillation of the ocean-atmospheric system, might be gainfully employed within reservoir operating models that adapt the reservoir operation as a function of the climate condition. This study develops a Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SDP) approach that can incorporate climate indices using a Hidden Markov Model. The model simulates the climatic regime as a hidden state following a Markov chain, with the state transitions driven by variation in climatic indices, such as the Southern Oscillation Index. Time series analysis of recorded streamflow data reveals the parameters of separate autoregressive models that describe the inflow to the reservoir under three representative climate states ("normal", "wet", "dry"). These models then define inflow transition probabilities for use in a classic SDP approach. The key advantage of the Hidden Markov Model is that it allows conditioning the operating policy not only on the reservoir storage and the antecedent inflow, but also on the climate condition, thus potentially allowing adaptability to a broader range of climate conditions. In practice, the reservoir operator would effect a water release tailored to a specific climate state based on available teleconnection data and forecasts. The approach is demonstrated on the operation of a realistic, stylised water reservoir with carry-over capacity in South-East Australia. Here teleconnections relating to both the El Niño Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole influence local hydro-meteorological processes; statistically significant lag correlations have already been established. Simulation of the derived operating policies, which are benchmarked against standard policies conditioned on the reservoir storage and the antecedent inflow, demonstrates the potential of the proposed approach. Future research will further develop the model for sensitivity analysis and regional studies examining the economic value of incorporating long range forecasts into reservoir operation.

Improvements in the spatial representation of lakes and reservoirs in the contiguous United States for the National Water Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khan, S.; Salas, F.; Sampson, K. M.; Read, L. K.; Cosgrove, B.; Li, Z.; Gochis, D. J.

2017-12-01

The representation of inland surface water bodies in distributed hydrologic models at the continental scale is a challenge. The National Water Model (NWM) utilizes the National Hydrography Dataset Plus Version 2 (NHDPlusV2) "waterbody" dataset to represent lakes and reservoirs. The "waterbody" layer is a comprehensive dataset that represents surface water bodies using common features like lakes, ponds, reservoirs, estuaries, playas and swamps/marshes. However, a major issue that remains unresolved even in the latest revision of NHDPlus Version 2 is the inconsistency in waterbody digitization and delineation errors. Manually correcting the water body polygons becomes tedious and quickly impossible for continental-scale hydrologic models such as the NWM. In this study, we improved spatial representation of 6,802 lakes and reservoirs by analyzing 379,110 waterbodies in the contiguous United States (excluding the Laurentian Great Lakes). We performed a step-by- step process that integrates a set of geospatial analyses to identify, track, and correct the extent of lakes and reservoirs features that are larger than 0.75 km2. The following assumptions were applied while developing the new dataset: a) lakes and reservoirs cannot directly feed into each other; b) each waterbody must have one outlet; and c) a single lake or reservoir feature cannot have multiple parts. The majority of the NHDplusV2 waterbody features in the original dataset are delineated correctly. However approximately 3 % of the lake and reservoir polygons were found to be incorrect with topological errors and were corrected accordingly. It is important to fix these digitizing errors because the waterbody features are closely linked to the river topology. This new waterbody dataset will ensure that model-simulated water is directed into and through the lakes and reservoirs in a manner that supports the NWM code base and assumptions. The improved dataset will facilitate more effective integration of lakes and reservoirs with correct spatial features into the updated NWM.

The effects of Missouri River mainstem reservoir system operations on 2011 flooding using a Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model: Chapter K in 2011 Floods of the Central United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Haj, Adel E.; Christiansen, Daniel E.; Viger, Roland J.

2014-01-01

In 2011 the Missouri River Mainstem Reservoir System (Reservoir System) experienced the largest volume of flood waters since the initiation of record-keeping in the nineteenth century. The high levels of runoff from both snowpack and rainfall stressed the Reservoir System’s capacity to control flood waters and caused massive damage and disruption along the river. The flooding and resulting damage along the Missouri River brought increased public attention to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) operation of the Reservoir System. To help understand the effects of Reservoir System operation on the 2011 Missouri River flood flows, the U.S. Geological Survey Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System was used to construct a model of the Missouri River Basin to simulate flows at streamgages and dam locations with the effects of Reservoir System operation (regulation) on flow removed. Statistical tests indicate that the Missouri River Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model is a good fit for high-flow monthly and annual stream flow estimation. A comparison of simulated unregulated flows and measured regulated flows show that regulation greatly reduced spring peak flow events, consolidated two summer peak flow events to one with a markedly decreased magnitude, and maintained higher than normal base flow beyond the end of water year 2011. Further comparison of results indicate that without regulation, flows greater than those measured would have occurred and been sustained for much longer, frequently in excess of 30 days, and flooding associated with high-flow events would have been more severe.

Improving inflow forecasting into hydropower reservoirs through a complementary modelling framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gragne, A. S.; Sharma, A.; Mehrotra, R.; Alfredsen, K.

2014-10-01

Accuracy of reservoir inflow forecasts is instrumental for maximizing the value of water resources and benefits gained through hydropower generation. Improving hourly reservoir inflow forecasts over a 24 h lead-time is considered within the day-ahead (Elspot) market of the Nordic exchange market. We present here a new approach for issuing hourly reservoir inflow forecasts that aims to improve on existing forecasting models that are in place operationally, without needing to modify the pre-existing approach, but instead formulating an additive or complementary model that is independent and captures the structure the existing model may be missing. Besides improving forecast skills of operational models, the approach estimates the uncertainty in the complementary model structure and produces probabilistic inflow forecasts that entrain suitable information for reducing uncertainty in the decision-making processes in hydropower systems operation. The procedure presented comprises an error model added on top of an un-alterable constant parameter conceptual model, the models being demonstrated with reference to the 207 km2 Krinsvatn catchment in central Norway. The structure of the error model is established based on attributes of the residual time series from the conceptual model. Deterministic and probabilistic evaluations revealed an overall significant improvement in forecast accuracy for lead-times up to 17 h. Season based evaluations indicated that the improvement in inflow forecasts varies across seasons and inflow forecasts in autumn and spring are less successful with the 95% prediction interval bracketing less than 95% of the observations for lead-times beyond 17 h.

Three-dimensional audio-magnetotelluric sounding in monitoring coalbed methane reservoirs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Nan; Zhao, Shanshan; Hui, Jian; Qin, Qiming

2017-03-01

Audio-magnetotelluric (AMT) sounding is widely employed in rapid resistivity delineation of objective geometry in near surface exploration. According to reservoir patterns and electrical parameters obtained in Qinshui Basin, China, two-dimensional and three-dimensional synthetic "objective anomaly" models were designed and inverted with the availability of a modular system for electromagnetic inversion (ModEM). The results revealed that 3-D full impedance inversion yielded the subsurface models closest to synthetic models. One or more conductive targets were correctly recovered. Therefore, conductive aquifers in the study area, including hydrous coalbed methane (CBM) reservoirs, were suggested to be the interpretation signs for reservoir characterization. With the aim of dynamic monitoring of CBM reservoirs, the AMT surveys in continuous years (June 2013-May 2015) were carried out. 3-D inversion results demonstrated that conductive anomalies accumulated around the producing reservoirs at the corresponding depths if CBM reservoirs were in high water production rates. In contrast, smaller conductive anomalies were generally identical with rapid gas production or stopping production of reservoirs. These analyses were in accordance with actual production history of CBM wells. The dynamic traces of conductive anomalies revealed that reservoir water migrated deep or converged in axial parts and wings of folds, which contributed significantly to formations of CBM traps. Then the well spacing scenario was also evaluated based on the dynamic production analysis. Wells distributed near closed faults or flat folds, rather than open faults, had CBM production potential to ascertain stable gas production. Therefore, three-dimensional AMT sounding becomes an attractive option with the ability of dynamic monitoring of CBM reservoirs, and lays a solid foundation of quantitative evaluation of reservoir parameters.

Study on reservoir time-varying design flood of inflow based on Poisson process with time-dependent parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jiqing; Huang, Jing; Li, Jianchang

2018-06-01

The time-varying design flood can make full use of the measured data, which can provide the reservoir with the basis of both flood control and operation scheduling. This paper adopts peak over threshold method for flood sampling in unit periods and Poisson process with time-dependent parameters model for simulation of reservoirs time-varying design flood. Considering the relationship between the model parameters and hypothesis, this paper presents the over-threshold intensity, the fitting degree of Poisson distribution and the design flood parameters are the time-varying design flood unit period and threshold discriminant basis, deduced Longyangxia reservoir time-varying design flood process at 9 kinds of design frequencies. The time-varying design flood of inflow is closer to the reservoir actual inflow conditions, which can be used to adjust the operating water level in flood season and make plans for resource utilization of flood in the basin.

A reservoir morphology database for the conterminous United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rodgers, Kirk D.

2017-09-13

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Reservoir Fisheries Habitat Partnership, combined multiple national databases to create one comprehensive national reservoir database and to calculate new morphological metrics for 3,828 reservoirs. These new metrics include, but are not limited to, shoreline development index, index of basin permanence, development of volume, and other descriptive metrics based on established morphometric formulas. The new database also contains modeled chemical and physical metrics. Because of the nature of the existing databases used to compile the Reservoir Morphology Database and the inherent missing data, some metrics were not populated. One comprehensive database will assist water-resource managers in their understanding of local reservoir morphology and water chemistry characteristics throughout the continental United States.

Architecture Controls on Reservoir Performance of Zubair Formation, Rumaila and West Qurna Oilfields in the Southern Iraq

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Al-Ziayyir, Haitham; Hodgetts, David

2015-04-01

The main reservoir in Rumaila /West Qurna oilfields is the Zubair Formation of Hautervian and Barremian age. This silicilastic formation extends over the regions of central and southern Iraq. This study attempts to improve the understanding of the architectural elements and their control on fluid flow paths within the Zubair Formation. A significant source of uncertainty in the zubair formation is the control on hydrodynamic pressure distribution. The reasons for pressure variation in the Zubair are not well understood. This work aims to reduce this uncertainty by providing a more detailed knowledge of reservoir architecture, distribution of barriers and baffles, and reservoir compartmentalization. To characterize the stratigraphic architecture of the Zubair formation,high resolution reservoir models that incorporate dynamic and static data were built. Facies modelling is accomplished by means of stochastic modelling techniques.The work is based on a large data set collected from the Rumaila oilfields. These data, comprising conventional logs of varying vintages, NMR logs, cores from six wells, and pressure data, were used for performing geological and petrophysical analyses.Flow simulation studies have also been applied to examine the impact of architecture on recovery. Understanding of geology and reservoir performance can be greatly improved by using an efficient, quick and viable integrated analysis, interpretation, and modelling.

Using hierarchical Bayesian multi-species mixture models to estimate tandem hoop-net based habitat associations and detection probabilities of fishes in reservoirs

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stewart, David R.; Long, James M.

2015-01-01

Species distribution models are useful tools to evaluate habitat relationships of fishes. We used hierarchical Bayesian multispecies mixture models to evaluate the relationships of both detection and abundance with habitat of reservoir fishes caught using tandem hoop nets. A total of 7,212 fish from 12 species were captured, and the majority of the catch was composed of Channel Catfish Ictalurus punctatus (46%), Bluegill Lepomis macrochirus(25%), and White Crappie Pomoxis annularis (14%). Detection estimates ranged from 8% to 69%, and modeling results suggested that fishes were primarily influenced by reservoir size and context, water clarity and temperature, and land-use types. Species were differentially abundant within and among habitat types, and some fishes were found to be more abundant in turbid, less impacted (e.g., by urbanization and agriculture) reservoirs with longer shoreline lengths; whereas, other species were found more often in clear, nutrient-rich impoundments that had generally shorter shoreline length and were surrounded by a higher percentage of agricultural land. Our results demonstrated that habitat and reservoir characteristics may differentially benefit species and assemblage structure. This study provides a useful framework for evaluating capture efficiency for not only hoop nets but other gear types used to sample fishes in reservoirs.

Forecast on Water Locking Damage of Low Permeable Reservoir with Quantum Neural Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Jingyuan; Sun, Yuxue; Feng, Fuping; Zhao, Fulei; Sui, Dianjie; Xu, Jianjun

2018-01-01

It is of great importance in oil-gas reservoir protection to timely and correctly forecast the water locking damage, the greatest damage for low permeable reservoir. An analysis is conducted on the production mechanism and various influence factors of water locking damage, based on which a quantum neuron is constructed based on the information processing manner of a biological neuron and the principle of quantum neural algorithm, besides, the quantum neural network model forecasting the water locking of the reservoir is established and related software is also made to forecast the water locking damage of the gas reservoir. This method has overcome the defects of grey correlation analysis that requires evaluation matrix analysis and complicated operation. According to the practice in Longxi Area of Daqing Oilfield, this method is characterized by fast operation, few system parameters and high accuracy rate (the general incidence rate may reach 90%), which can provide reliable support for the protection technique of low permeable reservoir.

Understanding the Role of Reservoir Size on Probable Maximum Precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woldemichael, A. T.; Hossain, F.

2011-12-01

This study addresses the question 'Does surface area of an artificial reservoir matter in the estimation of probable maximum precipitation (PMP) for an impounded basin?' The motivation of the study was based on the notion that the stationarity assumption that is implicit in the PMP for dam design can be undermined in the post-dam era due to an enhancement of extreme precipitation patterns by an artificial reservoir. In addition, the study lays the foundation for use of regional atmospheric models as one way to perform life cycle assessment for planned or existing dams to formulate best management practices. The American River Watershed (ARW) with the Folsom dam at the confluence of the American River was selected as the study region and the Dec-Jan 1996-97 storm event was selected for the study period. The numerical atmospheric model used for the study was the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS). First, the numerical modeling system, RAMS, was calibrated and validated with selected station and spatially interpolated precipitation data. Best combinations of parameterization schemes in RAMS were accordingly selected. Second, to mimic the standard method of PMP estimation by moisture maximization technique, relative humidity terms in the model were raised to 100% from ground up to the 500mb level. The obtained model-based maximum 72-hr precipitation values were named extreme precipitation (EP) as a distinction from the PMPs obtained by the standard methods. Third, six hypothetical reservoir size scenarios ranging from no-dam (all-dry) to the reservoir submerging half of basin were established to test the influence of reservoir size variation on EP. For the case of the ARW, our study clearly demonstrated that the assumption of stationarity that is implicit the traditional estimation of PMP can be rendered invalid to a large part due to the very presence of the artificial reservoir. Cloud tracking procedures performed on the basin also give indication of the formation of mesoscale convective systems (MCS) in the vicinity of dams/reservoirs that may have explicitly been triggered by their presence. The significance of this finding is that water resources managers need to consider the post-dam impact of water cycle and local climate due to the very reservoir and land use change triggered if efficient water resources management is desired. Future works of the study will include incorporation of the anthropogenic changes that occur as a result of the presence of dams/reservoirs in the forms of irrigation, urbanization and downstream wetland reduction. Similar hypothesis testing procedures will be applied to understand the combined effects of the reservoir size variation and anthropogenic changes in the extreme precipitation patterns.

Gray-box reservoir routing to compute flow propagation in operational forecasting and decision support systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Russano, Euan; Schwanenberg, Dirk; Alvarado Montero, Rodolfo

2017-04-01

Operational forecasting and decision support systems for flood mitigation and the daily management of water resources require computationally efficient flow routing models. If backwater effects do not play an important role, a hydrological routing approach is often a pragmatic choice. It offers a reasonable accuracy at low computational costs in comparison to a more detailed hydraulic model. This work presents a nonlinear reservoir routing scheme as well as its implementation for the flow propagation between the hydro reservoir Três Marias and a downstream inundation-affected city Pirapora in Brazil. We refer to the model as a gray-box approach due to the identification of the parameter k by a data-driven approach for each reservoir of the cascade, instead of using estimates based on physical characteristics. The model reproduces the discharge at the gauge Pirapora, using 15 reservoirs in the cascade. The obtained results are compared with the ones obtained from the full-hydrodynamic model SOBEK. Results show a relatively good performance for the validation period, with a RMSE of 139.48 for the gray-box model, while the full-hydrodynamic model shows a RMSE of 136.67. The simulation time for a period of several years for the full-hydrodynamic took approximately 64s, while the gray-box model only required about 0.50s. This provides a significant speedup of the computation by only a little trade-off in accuracy, pointing at the potential of the simple approach in the context of time-critical, operational applications. Key-words: flow routing, reservoir routing, gray-box model

Decision Support System for Reservoir Management and Operation in Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Navar, D. A.

2016-12-01

Africa is currently experiencing a surge in dam construction for flood control, water supply and hydropower production, but ineffective reservoir management has caused problems in the region, such as water shortages, flooding and loss of potential hydropower generation. Our research aims to remedy ineffective reservoir management by developing a novel Decision Support System(DSS) to equip water managers with a technical planning tool based on the state of the art in hydrological sciences. The DSS incorporates a climate forecast model, a hydraulic model of the watershed, and an optimization model to effectively plan for the operation of a system of cascade large-scale reservoirs for hydropower production, while treating water supply and flood control as constraints. Our team will use the newly constructed hydropower plants in the Omo Gibe basin of Ethiopia as the test case. Using the basic HIDROTERM software developed in Brazil, the General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS) utilizes a combination of linear programing (LP) and non-linear programming (NLP) in conjunction with real time hydrologic and energy demand data to optimize the monthly and daily operations of the reservoir system. We compare the DSS model results with the current reservoir operating policy used by the water managers of that region. We also hope the DSS will eliminate the current dangers associated with the mismanagement of large scale water resources projects in Africa.

Numerical modeling of fracking fluid and methane migration through fault zones in shale gas reservoirs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taherdangkoo, Reza; Tatomir, Alexandru; Sauter, Martin

2017-04-01

Hydraulic fracturing operation in shale gas reservoir has gained growing interest over the last few years. Groundwater contamination is one of the most important environmental concerns that have emerged surrounding shale gas development (Reagan et al., 2015). The potential impacts of hydraulic fracturing could be studied through the possible pathways for subsurface migration of contaminants towards overlying aquifers (Kissinger et al., 2013; Myers, 2012). The intent of this study is to investigate, by means of numerical simulation, two failure scenarios which are based on the presence of a fault zone that penetrates the full thickness of overburden and connect shale gas reservoir to aquifer. Scenario 1 addresses the potential transport of fracturing fluid from the shale into the subsurface. This scenario was modeled with COMSOL Multiphysics software. Scenario 2 deals with the leakage of methane from the reservoir into the overburden. The numerical modeling of this scenario was implemented in DuMux (free and open-source software), discrete fracture model (DFM) simulator (Tatomir, 2012). The modeling results are used to evaluate the influence of several important parameters (reservoir pressure, aquifer-reservoir separation thickness, fault zone inclination, porosity, permeability, etc.) that could affect the fluid transport through the fault zone. Furthermore, we determined the main transport mechanisms and circumstances in which would allow frack fluid or methane migrate through the fault zone into geological layers. The results show that presence of a conductive fault could reduce the contaminant travel time and a significant contaminant leakage, under certain hydraulic conditions, is most likely to occur. Bibliography Kissinger, A., Helmig, R., Ebigbo, A., Class, H., Lange, T., Sauter, M., Heitfeld, M., Klünker, J., Jahnke, W., 2013. Hydraulic fracturing in unconventional gas reservoirs: risks in the geological system, part 2. Environ Earth Sci 70, 3855-3873. Myers, T., 2012. Potential contaminant pathways from hydraulically fractured shale to aquifers. Groundwater, 50(6), 872-882. Reagan, M.T., Moridis, G.J., Keen, N.D., Johnson, J.N., 2015. Numerical simulation of the environmental impact of hydraulic fracturing of tight/shale gas reservoirs on near-surface groundwater: Background, base cases, shallow reservoirs, short-term gas, and water transport. Water Resources Research 51, 2543-2573. Tatomir, A., 2012. From Discrete to Continuum Concepts of Flow in Fractured Porous Media. Stuttgart University: University of Stuttgart.

A Cold-Pole Enhancement in Mercury’s Sodium Exosphere

PubMed Central

Cassidy, Timothy A.; McClintock, William E.; Killen, Rosemary M.; Sarantos, Menelaos; Merkel, Aimee W.; Vervack, Ronald J.; Burger, Matthew H.

2018-01-01

The Ultraviolet and Visible Spectrometer (UVVS) component of the Mercury Atmospheric and Surface Composition Spectrometer (MASCS) on the MESSENGER spacecraft characterized the local-time distribution of the sodium exosphere over the course of its orbital mission. The observations show that the sodium exosphere is enhanced above Mercury’s cold-pole longitudes. Based on previously published sodium exosphere models we infer that these regions act as nightside surface reservoirs, temporary sinks to the exosphere that collect sodium atoms transported anti-sunward. The reservoirs are revealed as exospheric enhancements when they are exposed to sunlight. As in the models the reservoir is depleted as the cold poles rotate from dawn to dusk, but unlike the models the depletion is only partial. The persistence of the reservoir means that it could, over the course of geologically long periods of time, contribute to an increase in the bulk concentration of sodium near the cold-pole longitudes. PMID:29720774

Modeling and Analysis of Integrated Bathymetric and Geodetic Data for Inventory Surveys of Mining Water Reservoirs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ochałek, Agnieszka; Lipecki, Tomasz; Jaśkowski, Wojciech; Jabłoński, Mateusz

2018-03-01

The significant part of the hydrography is bathymetry, which is the empirical part of it. Bathymetry is the study of underwater depth of waterways and reservoirs, and graphic presentation of measured data in form of bathymetric maps, cross-sections and three-dimensional bottom models. The bathymetric measurements are based on using Global Positioning System and devices for hydrographic measurements - an echo sounder and a side sonar scanner. In this research authors focused on introducing the case of obtaining and processing the bathymetrical data, building numerical bottom models of two post-mining reclaimed water reservoirs: Dwudniaki Lake in Wierzchosławice and flooded quarry in Zabierzów. The report includes also analysing data from still operating mining water reservoirs located in Poland to depict how bathymetry can be used in mining industry. The significant issue is an integration of bathymetrical data and geodetic data from tachymetry, terrestrial laser scanning measurements.

High-Performance Integrated Control of water quality and quantity in urban water reservoirs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galelli, S.; Castelletti, A.; Goedbloed, A.

2015-11-01

This paper contributes a novel High-Performance Integrated Control framework to support the real-time operation of urban water supply storages affected by water quality problems. We use a 3-D, high-fidelity simulation model to predict the main water quality dynamics and inform a real-time controller based on Model Predictive Control. The integration of the simulation model into the control scheme is performed by a model reduction process that identifies a low-order, dynamic emulator running 4 orders of magnitude faster. The model reduction, which relies on a semiautomatic procedural approach integrating time series clustering and variable selection algorithms, generates a compact and physically meaningful emulator that can be coupled with the controller. The framework is used to design the hourly operation of Marina Reservoir, a 3.2 Mm3 storm-water-fed reservoir located in the center of Singapore, operated for drinking water supply and flood control. Because of its recent formation from a former estuary, the reservoir suffers from high salinity levels, whose behavior is modeled with Delft3D-FLOW. Results show that our control framework reduces the minimum salinity levels by nearly 40% and cuts the average annual deficit of drinking water supply by about 2 times the active storage of the reservoir (about 4% of the total annual demand).

Continuous real-time water-quality monitoring and regression analysis to compute constituent concentrations and loads in the North Fork Ninnescah River upstream from Cheney Reservoir, south-central Kansas, 1999–2012

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stone, Mandy L.; Graham, Jennifer L.; Gatotho, Jackline W.

2013-01-01

Cheney Reservoir, located in south-central Kansas, is the primary water supply for the city of Wichita. The U.S. Geological Survey has operated a continuous real-time water-quality monitoring station since 1998 on the North Fork Ninnescah River, the main source of inflow to Cheney Reservoir. Continuously measured water-quality physical properties include streamflow, specific conductance, pH, water temperature, dissolved oxygen, and turbidity. Discrete water-quality samples were collected during 1999 through 2009 and analyzed for sediment, nutrients, bacteria, and other water-quality constituents. Regression models were developed to establish relations between discretely sampled constituent concentrations and continuously measured physical properties to compute concentrations of those constituents of interest that are not easily measured in real time because of limitations in sensor technology and fiscal constraints. Regression models were published in 2006 that were based on data collected during 1997 through 2003. This report updates those models using discrete and continuous data collected during January 1999 through December 2009. Models also were developed for four new constituents, including additional nutrient species and indicator bacteria. In addition, a conversion factor of 0.68 was established to convert the Yellow Springs Instruments (YSI) model 6026 turbidity sensor measurements to the newer YSI model 6136 sensor at the North Ninnescah River upstream from Cheney Reservoir site. Newly developed models and 14 years of hourly continuously measured data were used to calculate selected constituent concentrations and loads during January 1999 through December 2012. The water-quality information in this report is important to the city of Wichita because it allows the concentrations of many potential pollutants of interest to Cheney Reservoir, including nutrients and sediment, to be estimated in real time and characterized over conditions and time scales that would not be possible otherwise. In general, model forms and the amount of variance explained by the models was similar between the original and updated models. The amount of variance explained by the updated models changed by 10 percent or less relative to the original models. Total nitrogen, nitrate, organic nitrogen, E. coli bacteria, and total organic carbon models were newly developed for this report. Additional data collection over a wider range of hydrological conditions facilitated the development of these models. The nitrate model is particularly important because it allows for comparison to Cheney Reservoir Task Force goals. Mean hourly computed total suspended solids concentration during 1999 through 2012 was 54 milligrams per liter (mg/L). The total suspended solids load during 1999 through 2012 was 174,031 tons. On an average annual basis, the Cheney Reservoir Task Force runoff (550 mg/L) and long-term (100 mg/L) total suspended solids goals were never exceeded, but the base flow goal was exceeded every year during 1999 through 2012. Mean hourly computed nitrate concentration was 1.08 mg/L during 1999 through 2012. The total nitrate load during 1999 through 2012 was 1,361 tons. On an annual average basis, the Cheney Reservoir Task Force runoff (6.60 mg/L) nitrate goal was never exceeded, the long-term goal (1.20 mg/L) was exceeded only in 2012, and the base flow goal of 0.25 mg/L was exceeded every year. Mean nitrate concentrations that were higher during base flow, rather than during runoff conditions, suggest that groundwater sources are the main contributors of nitrate to the North Fork Ninnescah River above Cheney Reservoir. Mean hourly computed phosphorus concentration was 0.14 mg/L during 1999 through 2012. The total phosphorus load during 1999 through 2012 was 328 tons. On an average annual basis, the Cheney Reservoir Task Force runoff goal of 0.40 mg/L for total phosphorus was exceeded in 2002, the year with the largest yearly mean turbidity, and the long-term goal (0.10 mg/L) was exceeded in every year except 2011 and 2012, the years with the smallest mean streamflows. The total phosphorus base flow goal of 0.05 mg/L was exceeded every year. Given that base flow goals for total suspended solids, nitrate, and total phosphorus were exceeded every year despite hydrologic conditions, the established base flow goals are either unattainable or substantially more best management practices will need to be implemented to attain them. On an annual average basis, no discernible patterns were evident in total suspended sediment, nitrate, and total phosphorus concentrations or loads over time, in large part because of hydrologic variability. However, more rigorous statistical analyses are required to evaluate temporal trends. A more rigorous analysis of temporal trends will allow evaluation of watershed investments in best management practices.

Physics-based forecasting of induced seismicity at Groningen gas field, the Netherlands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dempsey, David; Suckale, Jenny

2017-08-01

Earthquakes induced by natural gas extraction from the Groningen reservoir, the Netherlands, put local communities at risk. Responsible operation of a reservoir whose gas reserves are of strategic importance to the country requires understanding of the link between extraction and earthquakes. We synthesize observations and a model for Groningen seismicity to produce forecasts for felt seismicity (M > 2.5) in the period February 2017 to 2024. Our model accounts for poroelastic earthquake triggering and rupture on the 325 largest reservoir faults, using an ensemble approach to model unknown heterogeneity and replicate earthquake statistics. We calculate probability distributions for key model parameters using a Bayesian method that incorporates the earthquake observations with a nonhomogeneous Poisson process. Our analysis indicates that the Groningen reservoir was not critically stressed prior to the start of production. Epistemic uncertainty and aleatoric uncertainty are incorporated into forecasts for three different future extraction scenarios. The largest expected earthquake was similar for all scenarios, with a 5% likelihood of exceeding M 4.0.

Trade-off Assessment of Simplified Routing Models for Short-Term Hydropower Reservoir Optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Issao Kuwajima, Julio; Schwanenberg, Dirk; Alvardo Montero, Rodolfo; Mainardi Fan, Fernando; Assis dos Reis, Alberto

2014-05-01

Short-term reservoir optimization, also referred to as model predictive control, integrates model-based forecasts and optimization algorithms to meet multiple management objectives such as water supply, navigation, hydroelectricity generation, environmental obligations and flood protection. It is a valuable decision support tool to handle water-stress conditions or flooding events, and supports decision makers to minimize their impact. If the reservoir management includes downstream control, for example for mitigation flood damages in inundation areas downstream of the operated dam, the flow routing between the dam and the downstream inundation area is of major importance. The unsteady open channel flow in river reaches can be described by the one-dimensional Saint-Venant equations. However, owing to the mathematical complexity of those equations, some simplifications may be required to speed up the computation within the optimization procedure. Another strategy to limit the model runtime is a schematization on a course computational grid. In particular the last measure can introduce significant numerical diffusion into the solution. This is a major drawback, in particular if the reservoir release has steep gradients which we often find in hydropower reservoirs. In this work, four different routing models are assessed concerning their implementation in the predictive control of the Três Marias Reservoir located at the Upper River São Francisco in Brazil: i) a fully dynamic model using the software package SOBEK; ii) a semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model with Muskingum-Cunge routing for the flow reaches of interest, the MGB-IPH (Modelo Hidrológico de Grandes Bacias - Instituto de Pesquisas Hidráulicas); iii) a reservoir routing approach; and iv) a diffusive wave model. The last two models are implemented in the RTC-Tool toolbox. The overall model accuracy between the simplified models in RTC-Tools (iii, iv) and the more sophisticated SOBEK model (i) are comparable, and a lower performance was assessed for the MGB model (ii). Whereas the SOBEK model is able to propagate sharp discharge gradient downstream, the diffusive wave model is damping these gradients significantly due to the course spatial schematization. In the reservoir routing model, which is also schematized on a course grid, we counteract this drawback by modeling parts of the river reach by advection. This results in an excellent ratio between model accuracy / robustness and computational effort making it the approach of choice from the predictive control perspective.

Simulation of land use change in the three gorges reservoir area based on CART-CA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Min

2018-05-01

This study proposes a new method to simulate spatiotemporal complex multiple land uses by using classification and regression tree algorithm (CART) based CA model. In this model, we use classification and regression tree algorithm to calculate land class conversion probability, and combine neighborhood factor, random factor to extract cellular transformation rules. The overall Kappa coefficient is 0.8014 and the overall accuracy is 0.8821 in the land dynamic simulation results of the three gorges reservoir area from 2000 to 2010, and the simulation results are satisfactory.

Reconstruction of a digital core containing clay minerals based on a clustering algorithm.

PubMed

He, Yanlong; Pu, Chunsheng; Jing, Cheng; Gu, Xiaoyu; Chen, Qingdong; Liu, Hongzhi; Khan, Nasir; Dong, Qiaoling

2017-10-01

It is difficult to obtain a core sample and information for digital core reconstruction of mature sandstone reservoirs around the world, especially for an unconsolidated sandstone reservoir. Meanwhile, reconstruction and division of clay minerals play a vital role in the reconstruction of the digital cores, although the two-dimensional data-based reconstruction methods are specifically applicable as the microstructure reservoir simulation methods for the sandstone reservoir. However, reconstruction of clay minerals is still challenging from a research viewpoint for the better reconstruction of various clay minerals in the digital cores. In the present work, the content of clay minerals was considered on the basis of two-dimensional information about the reservoir. After application of the hybrid method, and compared with the model reconstructed by the process-based method, the digital core containing clay clusters without the labels of the clusters' number, size, and texture were the output. The statistics and geometry of the reconstruction model were similar to the reference model. In addition, the Hoshen-Kopelman algorithm was used to label various connected unclassified clay clusters in the initial model and then the number and size of clay clusters were recorded. At the same time, the K-means clustering algorithm was applied to divide the labeled, large connecting clusters into smaller clusters on the basis of difference in the clusters' characteristics. According to the clay minerals' characteristics, such as types, textures, and distributions, the digital core containing clay minerals was reconstructed by means of the clustering algorithm and the clay clusters' structure judgment. The distributions and textures of the clay minerals of the digital core were reasonable. The clustering algorithm improved the digital core reconstruction and provided an alternative method for the simulation of different clay minerals in the digital cores.

Marine reservoir age variability and water mass distribution in the Iceland Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eiríksson, Jón; Larsen, Gudrún; Knudsen, Karen Luise; Heinemeier, Jan; Símonarson, Leifur A.

2004-11-01

Lateglacial and Holocene tephra markers from Icelandic source volcanoes have been identified in five sediment cores from the North Icelandic shelf and correlated with tephra layers in reference soil sections in North Iceland and the GRIP ice core. Land-sea correlation of tephra markers, that have been radiocarbon dated with terrestrial material or dated by documentary evidence, provides a tool for monitoring reservoir age variability in the region. Age models developed for the shelf sediments north of Iceland, based on offshore tephrochronology on one hand and on calibrated AMS 14C datings of marine molluscs on the other, display major deviations during the last 4500 years. The inferred temporal variability in the reservoir age of the regional water masses exceeds by far the variability expected from the marine model calculations. The observed reservoir ages are generally considerably higher, by up to 450 years, than the standard model ocean. It is postulated that the intervals with increased and variable marine reservoir age reflect incursions of Arctic water masses derived from the East Greenland Current to the Iceland Sea and the North Icelandic shelf.

Bayesian seismic inversion based on rock-physics prior modeling for the joint estimation of acoustic impedance, porosity and lithofacies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Passos de Figueiredo, Leandro, E-mail: leandrop.fgr@gmail.com; Grana, Dario; Santos, Marcio

We propose a Bayesian approach for seismic inversion to estimate acoustic impedance, porosity and lithofacies within the reservoir conditioned to post-stack seismic and well data. The link between elastic and petrophysical properties is given by a joint prior distribution for the logarithm of impedance and porosity, based on a rock-physics model. The well conditioning is performed through a background model obtained by well log interpolation. Two different approaches are presented: in the first approach, the prior is defined by a single Gaussian distribution, whereas in the second approach it is defined by a Gaussian mixture to represent the well datamore » multimodal distribution and link the Gaussian components to different geological lithofacies. The forward model is based on a linearized convolutional model. For the single Gaussian case, we obtain an analytical expression for the posterior distribution, resulting in a fast algorithm to compute the solution of the inverse problem, i.e. the posterior distribution of acoustic impedance and porosity as well as the facies probability given the observed data. For the Gaussian mixture prior, it is not possible to obtain the distributions analytically, hence we propose a Gibbs algorithm to perform the posterior sampling and obtain several reservoir model realizations, allowing an uncertainty analysis of the estimated properties and lithofacies. Both methodologies are applied to a real seismic dataset with three wells to obtain 3D models of acoustic impedance, porosity and lithofacies. The methodologies are validated through a blind well test and compared to a standard Bayesian inversion approach. Using the probability of the reservoir lithofacies, we also compute a 3D isosurface probability model of the main oil reservoir in the studied field.« less

Enhanced genetic algorithm optimization model for a single reservoir operation based on hydropower generation: case study of Mosul reservoir, northern Iraq.

PubMed

Al-Aqeeli, Yousif H; Lee, T S; Abd Aziz, S

2016-01-01

Achievement of the optimal hydropower generation from operation of water reservoirs, is a complex problems. The purpose of this study was to formulate and improve an approach of a genetic algorithm optimization model (GAOM) in order to increase the maximization of annual hydropower generation for a single reservoir. For this purpose, two simulation algorithms were drafted and applied independently in that GAOM during 20 scenarios (years) for operation of Mosul reservoir, northern Iraq. The first algorithm was based on the traditional simulation of reservoir operation, whilst the second algorithm (Salg) enhanced the GAOM by changing the population values of GA through a new simulation process of reservoir operation. The performances of these two algorithms were evaluated through the comparison of their optimal values of annual hydropower generation during the 20 scenarios of operating. The GAOM achieved an increase in hydropower generation in 17 scenarios using these two algorithms, with the Salg being superior in all scenarios. All of these were done prior adding the evaporation (Ev) and precipitation (Pr) to the water balance equation. Next, the GAOM using the Salg was applied by taking into consideration the volumes of these two parameters. In this case, the optimal values obtained from the GAOM were compared, firstly with their counterpart that found using the same algorithm without taking into consideration of Ev and Pr, secondly with the observed values. The first comparison showed that the optimal values obtained in this case decreased in all scenarios, whilst maintaining the good results compared with the observed in the second comparison. The results proved the effectiveness of the Salg in increasing the hydropower generation through the enhanced approach of the GAOM. In addition, the results indicated to the importance of taking into account the Ev and Pr in the modelling of reservoirs operation.

Evaluating the variability in surface water reservoir planning characteristics during climate change impacts assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soundharajan, Bankaru-Swamy; Adeloye, Adebayo J.; Remesan, Renji

2016-07-01

This study employed a Monte-Carlo simulation approach to characterise the uncertainties in climate change induced variations in storage requirements and performance (reliability (time- and volume-based), resilience, vulnerability and sustainability) of surface water reservoirs. Using a calibrated rainfall-runoff (R-R) model, the baseline runoff scenario was first simulated. The R-R inputs (rainfall and temperature) were then perturbed using plausible delta-changes to produce simulated climate change runoff scenarios. Stochastic models of the runoff were developed and used to generate ensembles of both the current and climate-change-perturbed future runoff scenarios. The resulting runoff ensembles were used to force simulation models of the behaviour of the reservoir to produce 'populations' of required reservoir storage capacity to meet demands, and the performance. Comparing these parameters between the current and the perturbed provided the population of climate change effects which was then analysed to determine the variability in the impacts. The methodology was applied to the Pong reservoir on the Beas River in northern India. The reservoir serves irrigation and hydropower needs and the hydrology of the catchment is highly influenced by Himalayan seasonal snow and glaciers, and Monsoon rainfall, both of which are predicted to change due to climate change. The results show that required reservoir capacity is highly variable with a coefficient of variation (CV) as high as 0.3 as the future climate becomes drier. Of the performance indices, the vulnerability recorded the highest variability (CV up to 0.5) while the volume-based reliability was the least variable. Such variabilities or uncertainties will, no doubt, complicate the development of climate change adaptation measures; however, knowledge of their sheer magnitudes as obtained in this study will help in the formulation of appropriate policy and technical interventions for sustaining and possibly enhancing water security for irrigation and other uses served by Pong reservoir.

Forecasting the remaining reservoir capacity in the Laurentian Great Lakes watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alighalehbabakhani, Fatemeh; Miller, Carol J.; Baskaran, Mark; Selegean, James P.; Barkach, John H.; Dahl, Travis; Abkenar, Seyed Mohsen Sadatiyan

2017-12-01

Sediment accumulation behind a dam is a significant factor in reservoir operation and watershed management. There are many dams located within the Laurentian Great Lakes watershed whose operations have been adversely affected by excessive reservoir sedimentation. Reservoir sedimentation effects include reduction of flood control capability and limitations to both water supply withdrawals and power generation due to reduced reservoir storage. In this research, the sediment accumulation rates of twelve reservoirs within the Great Lakes watershed were evaluated using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The estimated sediment accumulation rates by SWAT were compared to estimates relying on radionuclide dating of sediment cores and bathymetric survey methods. Based on the sediment accumulation rate, the remaining reservoir capacity for each study site was estimated. Evaluation of the anthropogenic impacts including land use change and dam construction on the sediment yield were assessed in this research. The regression analysis was done on the current and pre-European settlement sediment yield for the modeled watersheds to predict the current and natural sediment yield in un-modeled watersheds. These eleven watersheds are in the state of Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, New York, and Wisconsin.

Model for economic evaluation of high energy gas fracturing

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Engi, D.

1984-05-01

The HEGF/NPV model has been developed and adapted for interactive microcomputer calculations of the economic consequences of reservoir stimulation by high energy gas fracturing (HEGF) in naturally fractured formations. This model makes use of three individual models: a model of the stimulated reservoir, a model of the gas flow in this reservoir, and a model of the discounted expected net cash flow (net present value, or NPV) associated with the enhanced gas production. Nominal values of the input parameters, based on observed data and reasonable estimates, are used to calculate the initial expected increase in the average daily rate ofmore » production resulting from the Meigs County HEGF stimulation experiment. Agreement with the observed initial increase in rate is good. On the basis of this calculation, production from the Meigs County Well is not expected to be profitable, but the HEGF/NPV model probably provides conservative results. Furthermore, analyses of the sensitivity of the expected NPV to variations in the values of certain reservoir parameters suggest that the use of HEGF stimulation in somewhat more favorable formations is potentially profitable. 6 references, 4 figures, 3 tables.« less

CATS - A process-based model for turbulent turbidite systems at the reservoir scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teles, Vanessa; Chauveau, Benoît; Joseph, Philippe; Weill, Pierre; Maktouf, Fakher

2016-09-01

The Cellular Automata for Turbidite systems (CATS) model is intended to simulate the fine architecture and facies distribution of turbidite reservoirs with a multi-event and process-based approach. The main processes of low-density turbulent turbidity flow are modeled: downslope sediment-laden flow, entrainment of ambient water, erosion and deposition of several distinct lithologies. This numerical model, derived from (Salles, 2006; Salles et al., 2007), proposes a new approach based on the Rouse concentration profile to consider the flow capacity to carry the sediment load in suspension. In CATS, the flow distribution on a given topography is modeled with local rules between neighboring cells (cellular automata) based on potential and kinetic energy balance and diffusion concepts. Input parameters are the initial flow parameters and a 3D topography at depositional time. An overview of CATS capabilities in different contexts is presented and discussed.

Development of Water Resources Drought Early Warning System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, B. P. T.; Chen, C. H.

2017-12-01

Signs of impending drought are often vague and result from hydrologic uncertainty. Because of this, determining the appropriate time to enforce water supply restrictions is difficult. This study proposes a drought early warning index (DEWI) that can help water resource managers to anticipate droughts so that preparations can be made to mitigate the impact of water shortages. This study employs the expected-deficit-rate of normal water supply conditions as the drought early warning index. An annual-use-reservoir-based water supply system in southern Taiwan was selected as the case study. The water supply simulation was based on reservoir storage at the evaluation time and the reservoir inflow series to cope with the actual water supply process until the end of the hydrologic year. A variety of deficits could be realized during different hydrologic years of records and assumptions of initial reservoir storage. These deficits are illustrated using the Average Shortage Rate (ASR) and the value of the ASR, namely the DEWI. The ASR is divided into 5 levels according to 5 deficit-tolerance combinations of each kind of annual demand. A linear regression model and a Neuro-Fuzzy Computing Technique model were employed to estimate the DEWI using selected factors deduced from supply-demand traits and available information, including: rainfall, reservoir inflow and storage data. The chosen methods mentioned above are used to explain a significant index is useful for both model development and decision making. Tests in the Tsengwen-Wushantou reservoir system showed this DEWI to perform very well in adopting the proper mitigation policy at the end of the wet season.

Optimal Reservoir Operation using Stochastic Model Predictive Control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sahu, R.; McLaughlin, D.

2016-12-01

Hydropower operations are typically designed to fulfill contracts negotiated with consumers who need reliable energy supplies, despite uncertainties in reservoir inflows. In addition to providing reliable power the reservoir operator needs to take into account environmental factors such as downstream flooding or compliance with minimum flow requirements. From a dynamical systems perspective, the reservoir operating strategy must cope with conflicting objectives in the presence of random disturbances. In order to achieve optimal performance, the reservoir system needs to continually adapt to disturbances in real time. Model Predictive Control (MPC) is a real-time control technique that adapts by deriving the reservoir release at each decision time from the current state of the system. Here an ensemble-based version of MPC (SMPC) is applied to a generic reservoir to determine both the optimal power contract, considering future inflow uncertainty, and a real-time operating strategy that attempts to satisfy the contract. Contract selection and real-time operation are coupled in an optimization framework that also defines a Pareto trade off between the revenue generated from energy production and the environmental damage resulting from uncontrolled reservoir spills. Further insight is provided by a sensitivity analysis of key parameters specified in the SMPC technique. The results demonstrate that SMPC is suitable for multi-objective planning and associated real-time operation of a wide range of hydropower reservoir systems.

Numerical study of the origin and stability of chemically distinct reservoirs deep in Earth's mantle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Thienen, P.; van Summeren, J.; van der Hilst, R. D.; van den Berg, A. P.; Vlaar, N. J.

Seismic tomography is providing mounting evidence for large scale compositional heterogeneity deep in Earth's mantle; also, the diverse geochemical and isotopic signatures observed in oceanic basalts suggest that the mantle is not chemically homogeneous. Isotopic studies on Archean rocks indicate that mantle inhomogeneity may have existed for most of the Earth's history. One important component may be recycled oceanic crust, residing at the base of the mantle. We investigate, by numerical modeling, if such reservoirs may have been formed in the early Earth, before plate tectonics (and subduction) were possible, and how they have survived—and evolved—since then. During Earth's early evolution, thick basaltic crust may have sunk episodically into the mantle in short but vigorous diapiric resurfacing events. These sections of crust may have resided at the base of the mantle for very long times. Entrainment of material from the enriched reservoirs thus produced may account for enriched mantle and high-μ signatures in oceanic basalts, whereas deep subduction events may have shaped and replenished deep mantle reservoirs. Our modeling shows that (1) convective instabilities and resurfacing may have produced deep enriched mantle reservoirs before the era of plate tectonics; (2) such formation is qualitatively consistent with the geochemical record, which shows multiple distinct ocean island basalt sources; and (3) reservoirs thus produced may be stable for billions of years.

Mean field dynamics of some open quantum systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Merkli, Marco; Rafiyi, Alireza

2018-04-01

We consider a large number N of quantum particles coupled via a mean field interaction to another quantum system (reservoir). Our main result is an expansion for the averages of observables, both of the particles and of the reservoir, in inverse powers of √{N }. The analysis is based directly on the Dyson series expansion of the propagator. We analyse the dynamics, in the limit N →∞ , of observables of a fixed number n of particles, of extensive particle observables and their fluctuations, as well as of reservoir observables. We illustrate our results on the infinite mode Dicke model and on various energy-conserving models.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cipolla, C.L.; Mayerhofer, M.

The paper details the acquisition of detailed core and pressure data and the subsequent reservoir modeling in the Ozona Gas Field, Crockett County, Texas. The Canyon formation is the focus of the study and consists of complex turbidite sands characterized by numerous lenticular gas bearing members. The sands cannot be characterized using indirect measurements (logs) and no reliable porosity-permeability relationship could be developed. The reservoir simulation results illustrate the problems associated with interpreting typical pressure and production data in tight gas sands and details procedures to identify incremental reserves. Reservoir layering was represented by five model layers and layer permeabilitiesmore » were estimated based on statistical distributions from core measurements.« less

A Lagrangian model for the age of tracer in surface water

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ding, Yu; Liu, Haifei; Yi, Yujun

The age of tracer is a spatio-temporal scale, indicating the transition time of solute particles, which is helpful to monitor and manage the pollutant leakage accidents. In this study, an effective Lagrangian model for the age of tracer is developed based on the lattice Boltzmann method in D2Q5 lattices. A tracer age problem in an asymmetrical circular reservoir is then employed as a benchmark test to verify this method. Then it is applied to computing the age of tracers under two different reservoir operation schemes in the Danjiangkou Reservoir, the drinking water source for the Middle Route of South-to-North Water Transfer Project.

Mean field dynamics of some open quantum systems.

PubMed

Merkli, Marco; Rafiyi, Alireza

2018-04-01

We consider a large number N of quantum particles coupled via a mean field interaction to another quantum system (reservoir). Our main result is an expansion for the averages of observables, both of the particles and of the reservoir, in inverse powers of [Formula: see text]. The analysis is based directly on the Dyson series expansion of the propagator. We analyse the dynamics, in the limit [Formula: see text], of observables of a fixed number n of particles, of extensive particle observables and their fluctuations, as well as of reservoir observables. We illustrate our results on the infinite mode Dicke model and on various energy-conserving models.

Risk Decision Making Model for Reservoir Floodwater resources Utilization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, X.

2017-12-01

Floodwater resources utilization(FRU) can alleviate the shortage of water resources, but there are risks. In order to safely and efficiently utilize the floodwater resources, it is necessary to study the risk of reservoir FRU. In this paper, the risk rate of exceeding the design flood water level and the risk rate of exceeding safety discharge are estimated. Based on the principle of the minimum risk and the maximum benefit of FRU, a multi-objective risk decision making model for FRU is constructed. Probability theory and mathematical statistics method is selected to calculate the risk rate; C-D production function method and emergy analysis method is selected to calculate the risk benefit; the risk loss is related to flood inundation area and unit area loss; the multi-objective decision making problem of the model is solved by the constraint method. Taking the Shilianghe reservoir in Jiangsu Province as an example, the optimal equilibrium solution of FRU of the Shilianghe reservoir is found by using the risk decision making model, and the validity and applicability of the model are verified.

Optimal and centralized reservoir management for drought and flood protection via Stochastic Dual Dynamic Programming on the Upper Seine-Aube River system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chiavico, Mattia; Raso, Luciano; Dorchies, David; Malaterre, Pierre-Olivier

2015-04-01

Seine river region is an extremely important logistic and economic junction for France and Europe. The hydraulic protection of most part of the region relies on four controlled reservoirs, managed by EPTB Seine-Grands Lacs. Presently, reservoirs operation is not centrally coordinated, and release rules are based on empirical filling curves. In this study, we analyze how a centralized release policy can face flood and drought risks, optimizing water system efficiency. The optimal and centralized decisional problem is solved by Stochastic Dual Dynamic Programming (SDDP) method, minimizing an operational indicator for each planning objective. SDDP allows us to include into the system: 1) the hydrological discharge, specifically a stochastic semi-distributed auto-regressive model, 2) the hydraulic transfer model, represented by a linear lag and route model, and 3) reservoirs and diversions. The novelty of this study lies on the combination of reservoir and hydraulic models in SDDP for flood and drought protection problems. The study case covers the Seine basin until the confluence with Aube River: this system includes two reservoirs, the city of Troyes, and the Nuclear power plant of Nogent-Sur-Seine. The conflict between the interests of flood protection, drought protection, water use and ecology leads to analyze the environmental system in a Multi-Objective perspective.

AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO CHARACTERIZING BYPASSED OIL IN HETEROGENEOUS AND FRACTURED RESERVOIRS USING PARTITIONING TRACERS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Akhil Datta-Gupta

2003-08-01

We explore the use of efficient streamline-based simulation approaches for modeling partitioning interwell tracer tests in hydrocarbon reservoirs. Specifically, we utilize the unique features of streamline models to develop an efficient approach for interpretation and history matching of field tracer response. A critical aspect here is the underdetermined and highly ill-posed nature of the associated inverse problems. We have adopted an integrated approach whereby we combine data from multiple sources to minimize the uncertainty and non-uniqueness in the interpreted results. For partitioning interwell tracer tests, these are primarily the distribution of reservoir permeability and oil saturation distribution. A novel approachmore » to multiscale data integration using Markov Random Fields (MRF) has been developed to integrate static data sources from the reservoir such as core, well log and 3-D seismic data. We have also explored the use of a finite difference reservoir simulator, UTCHEM, for field-scale design and optimization of partitioning interwell tracer tests. The finite-difference model allows us to include detailed physics associated with reactive tracer transport, particularly those related with transverse and cross-streamline mechanisms. We have investigated the potential use of downhole tracer samplers and also the use of natural tracers for the design of partitioning tracer tests. Finally, the behavior of partitioning tracer tests in fractured reservoirs is investigated using a dual-porosity finite-difference model.« less

a Fractal Analysis for Net Present Value of Multi-Stage Hydraulic Fractured Horizontal Well

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Hong-Lin; Zhang, Ji-Jun; Tan, Xiao-Hua; Li, Xiao-Ping; Zhao, Jia-Hui

Because of the low permeability, multi-stage hydraulic fractured horizontal wells (MHFHWs) occupy a dominant position among production wells in tight gas reservoir. However, net present value (NPV) estimation method for MHFHW in tight gas reservoirs often ignores the effect of heterogeneity in microscopic pore structure. Apart from that, a new fractal model is presented for NPV of MHFHW, based on the fractal expressions of formation parameters. First, with the aid of apparent permeability model, a pseudo pressure expression considering both reservoir fractal features and slippage effect is derived, contributing to establish the productivity model. Secondly, economic assessment method is built based on the fractal productivity model, in order to obtain the NPV of MHFHW. Thirdly, the type curves are illustrated and the influences of different fractal parameters are discussed. The pore fractal dimensions Df and the capillary tortuosity fractal dimensions DT have significant effects on the NPV of an MHFHW. Finally, the proposed model in this paper provides a new methodology for analyzing and predicting the NPV of an MHFHW and may be conducive to a better understanding of the optimal design of MHFHW.

Use of single-well simulators and economic performance criteria to optimize fracturing treatment design

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Anderson, R.W.; Phillips, A.M.

1990-02-01

Low-permeability reservoirs are currently being propped with sand, resin-coated sand, intermediate-density proppants, and bauxite. This wide range of proppant cost and performance has resulted in the proliferation of proppant selection models. Initially, a rather vague relationship between well depth and proppant strength dictated the choice of proppant. More recently, computerized models of varying complexity that use net-present-value (NPV) calculations have become available. The input is based on the operator's performance goals for each well and specific reservoir properties. Simpler, noncomputerized approaches include cost/performance comparisons and nomographs. Each type of model, including several of the computerized models, is examined here. Bymore » use of these models and NPV calculations, optimum fracturing treatment designs have been developed for such low-permeability reservoirs as the Prue in Oklahoma. Typical well conditions are used in each of the selection models, and the results are compared.« less

A hybrid framework for reservoir characterization using fuzzy ranking and an artificial neural network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Baijie; Wang, Xin; Chen, Zhangxin

2013-08-01

Reservoir characterization refers to the process of quantitatively assigning reservoir properties using all available field data. Artificial neural networks (ANN) have recently been introduced to solve reservoir characterization problems dealing with the complex underlying relationships inherent in well log data. Despite the utility of ANNs, the current limitation is that most existing applications simply focus on directly implementing existing ANN models instead of improving/customizing them to fit the specific reservoir characterization tasks at hand. In this paper, we propose a novel intelligent framework that integrates fuzzy ranking (FR) and multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural networks for reservoir characterization. FR can automatically identify a minimum subset of well log data as neural inputs, and the MLP is trained to learn the complex correlations from the selected well log data to a target reservoir property. FR guarantees the selection of the optimal subset of representative data from the overall well log data set for the characterization of a specific reservoir property; and, this implicitly improves the modeling and predication accuracy of the MLP. In addition, a growing number of industrial agencies are implementing geographic information systems (GIS) in field data management; and, we have designed the GFAR solution (GIS-based FR ANN Reservoir characterization solution) system, which integrates the proposed framework into a GIS system that provides an efficient characterization solution. Three separate petroleum wells from southwestern Alberta, Canada, were used in the presented case study of reservoir porosity characterization. Our experiments demonstrate that our method can generate reliable results.

Application of Carbonate Reservoir using waveform inversion and reverse-time migration methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, W.; Kim, H.; Min, D.; Keehm, Y.

2011-12-01

Recent exploration targets of oil and gas resources are deeper and more complicated subsurface structures, and carbonate reservoirs have become one of the attractive and challenging targets in seismic exploration. To increase the rate of success in oil and gas exploration, it is required to delineate detailed subsurface structures. Accordingly, migration method is more important factor in seismic data processing for the delineation. Seismic migration method has a long history, and there have been developed lots of migration techniques. Among them, reverse-time migration is promising, because it can provide reliable images for the complicated model even in the case of significant velocity contrasts in the model. The reliability of seismic migration images is dependent on the subsurface velocity models, which can be extracted in several ways. These days, geophysicists try to obtain velocity models through seismic full waveform inversion. Since Lailly (1983) and Tarantola (1984) proposed that the adjoint state of wave equations can be used in waveform inversion, the back-propagation techniques used in reverse-time migration have been used in waveform inversion, which accelerated the development of waveform inversion. In this study, we applied acoustic waveform inversion and reverse-time migration methods to carbonate reservoir models with various reservoir thicknesses to examine the feasibility of the methods in delineating carbonate reservoir models. We first extracted subsurface material properties from acoustic waveform inversion, and then applied reverse-time migration using the inverted velocities as a background model. The waveform inversion in this study used back-propagation technique, and conjugate gradient method was used in optimization. The inversion was performed using the frequency-selection strategy. Finally waveform inversion results showed that carbonate reservoir models are clearly inverted by waveform inversion and migration images based on the inversion results are quite reliable. Different thicknesses of reservoir models were also described and the results revealed that the lower boundary of the reservoir was not delineated because of energy loss. From these results, it was noted that carbonate reservoirs can be properly imaged and interpreted by waveform inversion and reverse-time migration methods. This work was supported by the Energy Resources R&D program of the Korea Institute of Energy Technology Evaluation and Planning (KETEP) grant funded by the Korea government Ministry of Knowledge Economy (No. 2009201030001A, No. 2010T100200133) and the Brain Korea 21 project of Energy System Engineering.

Rodent reservoirs of future zoonotic diseases

PubMed Central

Han, Barbara A.; Schmidt, John Paul; Bowden, Sarah E.; Drake, John M.

2015-01-01

The increasing frequency of zoonotic disease events underscores a need to develop forecasting tools toward a more preemptive approach to outbreak investigation. We apply machine learning to data describing the traits and zoonotic pathogen diversity of the most speciose group of mammals, the rodents, which also comprise a disproportionate number of zoonotic disease reservoirs. Our models predict reservoir status in this group with over 90% accuracy, identifying species with high probabilities of harboring undiscovered zoonotic pathogens based on trait profiles that may serve as rules of thumb to distinguish reservoirs from nonreservoir species. Key predictors of zoonotic reservoirs include biogeographical properties, such as range size, as well as intrinsic host traits associated with lifetime reproductive output. Predicted hotspots of novel rodent reservoir diversity occur in the Middle East and Central Asia and the Midwestern United States. PMID:26038558

Mathematical modeling of the thermal and hydrodynamic structure of the cooling reservoir

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saminskiy, G.; Debolskaya, E.

2012-04-01

Hydrothermal conditions of the cooling reservoir is determined by the heat and mass transfer from the water surface to the atmosphere and the processes of heat transfer directly in the water mass of the reservoir. As the capacity of power plants, the corresponding increase in the volume of heated water and the use of deep lakes and reservoirs as coolers there is a need to develop new, more accurate, and the application of existing methods for the numerical simulation. In calculating the hydrothermal regime it must take into account the effect of wind, density (buoyancy) forces, and other data of the cooling reservoir. In addition to solving practical problems it is important to know not only the magnitude of the average temperature, but also its area and depth distribution. A successful solution can be achieved through mathematical modeling of general systems of equations of transport processes and the correct formulation of the problem, based on appropriate initial data. The purpose of the work is application of software package GETM for simulating the hydrothermal regime of cooling reservoir with an estimate of three-dimensional structure of transfer processes, the effects of wind, the friction of the water surface. Three-dimensional models are rarely applied, especially for far-field problems. If such models are required, experts in the field must develop and apply them. Primary physical processes included are surface heat transfer, short-wave and long-wave radiation and penetration, convective mixing, wind and flow induced mixing, entrainment of ambient water by pumped-storage inflows, inflow density stratification as impacted by temperature and dissolved and suspended solids. The model forcing data consists of the system bathymetry developed into the model grid; the boundary condition flow and temperature; the tributary and flow and temperature; and the system meteorology. Ivankovskoe reservoir belongs to the reservoirs of valley type (Tver region, Russia). It is used as a cooling reservoir for Konakovskaya power plant. It dumps the heated water in the Moshkovichevsky bay. Thermal and hydrodynamic structure of the Moshkovichevsky Bay is particular interest as the object of direct influence of heated water discharge. To study the effect of thermal discharge into the Ivankovskoe reservoir the model of the Moshkovichevsky Bay was built, which is subject to the largest thermal pollution. Step of the calculation grid is 25 meters. For further verification of the model field investigations were conducted in August-September 2011. The modeling results satisfactorily describe the thermal and hydrodynamic structure of the Moshkovichevsky Bay.

Towards Optimal Operation of the Reservoir System in Upper Yellow River: Incorporating Long- and Short-term Operations and Using Rolling Updated Hydrologic Forecast Information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Si, Y.; Li, X.; Li, T.; Huang, Y.; Yin, D.

2016-12-01

The cascade reservoirs in Upper Yellow River (UYR), one of the largest hydropower bases in China, play a vital role in peak load and frequency regulation for Northwest China Power Grid. The joint operation of this system has been put forward for years whereas has not come into effect due to management difficulties and inflow uncertainties, and thus there is still considerable improvement room for hydropower production. This study presents a decision support framework incorporating long- and short-term operation of the reservoir system. For long-term operation, we maximize hydropower production of the reservoir system using historical hydrological data of multiple years, and derive operating rule curves for storage reservoirs. For short-term operation, we develop a program consisting of three modules, namely hydrologic forecast module, reservoir operation module and coordination module. The coordination module is responsible for calling the hydrologic forecast module to acquire predicted inflow within a short-term horizon, and transferring the information to the reservoir operation module to generate optimal release decision. With the hydrologic forecast information updated, the rolling short-term optimization is iterated until the end of operation period, where the long-term operating curves serve as the ending storage target. As an application, the Digital Yellow River Integrated Model (referred to as "DYRIM", which is specially designed for runoff-sediment simulation in the Yellow River basin by Tsinghua University) is used in the hydrologic forecast module, and the successive linear programming (SLP) in the reservoir operation module. The application in the reservoir system of UYR demonstrates that the framework can effectively support real-time decision making, and ensure both computational accuracy and speed. Furthermore, it is worth noting that the general framework can be extended to any other reservoir system with any or combination of hydrological model(s) to forecast and any solver to optimize the operation of reservoir system.

A pragmatic method for estimating seepage losses for small reservoirs with application in rural India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oblinger, Jennifer A.; Moysey, Stephen M. J.; Ravindrinath, Rangoori; Guha, Chiranjit

2010-05-01

SummaryThe informal construction of small dams to capture runoff and artificially recharge ground water is a widespread strategy for dealing with water scarcity. A lack of technical capacity for the formal characterization of these systems, however, is often an impediment to the implementation of effective watershed management practices. Monitoring changes in reservoir storage provides a conceptually simple approach to quantify seepage, but does not account for the losses occurring when seepage is balanced by inflows to the reservoir and the stage remains approximately constant. To overcome this problem we evaluate whether a physically-based volume balance model that explicitly represents watershed processes, including reservoir inflows, can be constrained by a limited set of data readily collected by non-experts, specifically records of reservoir stage, rainfall, and evaporation. To assess the impact of parameter non-uniqueness associated with the calibration of the non-linear model, we perform a Monte Carlo analysis to quantify uncertainty in the total volume of water contributed to the subsurface by the 2007 monsoon for a dam located in the Deccan basalts near the village of Salri in Madhya Pradesh, India. The Monte Carlo analysis demonstrated that subsurface losses from the reservoir could be constrained with the available data, but additional measurements are required to constrain reservoir inflows. Our estimate of seepage from the reservoir (7.0 ± 0.6 × 10 4 m 3) is 3.5 times greater than the recharge volume estimated by considering reservoir volume changes alone. This result suggests that artificial recharge could be significantly underestimated when reservoir inflows are not explicitly included in models. Our seepage estimate also accounts for about 11% of rainfall occurring upstream of the dam and is comparable in magnitude to natural ground water recharge, thereby indicating that the reservoir plays a significant role in the hydrology of this small watershed.

Integrated Reflection Seismic Monitoring and Reservoir Modeling for Geologic CO2 Sequestration

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

John Rogers

The US DOE/NETL CCS MVA program funded a project with Fusion Petroleum Technologies Inc. (now SIGMA) to model the proof of concept of using sparse seismic data in the monitoring of CO{sub 2} injected into saline aquifers. The goal of the project was to develop and demonstrate an active source reflection seismic imaging strategy based on deployment of spatially sparse surface seismic arrays. The primary objective was to test the feasibility of sparse seismic array systems to monitor the CO{sub 2} plume migration injected into deep saline aquifers. The USDOE/RMOTC Teapot Dome (Wyoming) 3D seismic and reservoir data targeting themore » Crow Mountain formation was used as a realistic proxy to evaluate the feasibility of the proposed methodology. Though the RMOTC field has been well studied, the Crow Mountain as a saline aquifer has not been studied previously as a CO{sub 2} sequestration (storage) candidate reservoir. A full reprocessing of the seismic data from field tapes that included prestack time migration (PSTM) followed by prestack depth migration (PSDM) was performed. A baseline reservoir model was generated from the new imaging results that characterized the faults and horizon surfaces of the Crow Mountain reservoir. The 3D interpretation was integrated with the petrophysical data from available wells and incorporated into a geocellular model. The reservoir structure used in the geocellular model was developed using advanced inversion technologies including Fusion's ThinMAN{trademark} broadband spectral inversion. Seal failure risk was assessed using Fusion's proprietary GEOPRESS{trademark} pore pressure and fracture pressure prediction technology. CO{sub 2} injection was simulated into the Crow Mountain with a commercial reservoir simulator. Approximately 1.2MM tons of CO{sub 2} was simulated to be injected into the Crow Mountain reservoir over 30 years and subsequently let 'soak' in the reservoir for 970 years. The relatively small plume developed from this injection was observed migrating due to gravity to the apexes of the double anticline in the Crow Mountain reservoir of the Teapot dome. Four models were generated from the reservoir simulation task of the project which included three saturation models representing snapshots at different times during and after simulated CO{sub 2} injection and a fully saturated CO{sub 2} fluid substitution model. The saturation models were used along with a Gassmann fluid substitution model for CO{sub 2} to perform fluid volumetric substitution in the Crow Mountain formation. The fluid substitution resulted in a velocity and density model for the 3D volume at each saturation condition that was used to generate a synthetic seismic survey. FPTI's (Fusion Petroleum Technologies Inc.) proprietary SeisModelPRO{trademark} full acoustic wave equation software was used to simulate acquisition of a 3D seismic survey on the four models over a subset of the field area. The simulated acquisition area included the injection wells and the majority of the simulated plume area.« less

Evaluation of gas production potential from gas hydrate deposits in National Petroleum Reserve Alaska using numerical simulations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nandanwar, Manish S.; Anderson, Brian J.; Ajayi, Taiwo; Collett, Timothy S.; Zyrianova, Margarita V.

2016-01-01

An evaluation of the gas production potential of Sunlight Peak gas hydrate accumulation in the eastern portion of the National Petroleum Reserve Alaska (NPRA) of Alaska North Slope (ANS) is conducted using numerical simulations, as part of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) gas hydrate Life Cycle Assessment program. A field scale reservoir model for Sunlight Peak is developed using Advanced Processes & Thermal Reservoir Simulator (STARS) that approximates the production design and response of this gas hydrate field. The reservoir characterization is based on available structural maps and the seismic-derived hydrate saturation map of the study region. A 3D reservoir model, with heterogeneous distribution of the reservoir properties (such as porosity, permeability and vertical hydrate saturation), is developed by correlating the data from the Mount Elbert well logs. Production simulations showed that the Sunlight Peak prospect has the potential of producing 1.53 × 109 ST m3 of gas in 30 years by depressurization with a peak production rate of around 19.4 × 104 ST m3/day through a single horizontal well. To determine the effect of uncertainty in reservoir properties on the gas production, an uncertainty analysis is carried out. It is observed that for the range of data considered, the overall cumulative production from the Sunlight Peak will always be within the range of ±4.6% error from the overall mean value of 1.43 × 109 ST m3. A sensitivity analysis study showed that the proximity of the reservoir from the base of permafrost and the base of hydrate stability zone (BHSZ) has significant effect on gas production rates. The gas production rates decrease with the increase in the depth of the permafrost and the depth of BHSZ. From the overall analysis of the results it is concluded that Sunlight Peak gas hydrate accumulation behaves differently than other Class III reservoirs (Class III reservoirs are composed of a single layer of hydrate with no underlying zone of mobile fluids) due to its smaller thickness and high angle of dip.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ernest A. Mancini

The University of Alabama, in cooperation with Texas A&M University, McGill University, Longleaf Energy Group, Strago Petroleum Corporation, and Paramount Petroleum Company, has undertaken an integrated, interdisciplinary geoscientific and engineering research project. The project is designed to characterize and model reservoir architecture, pore systems and rock-fluid interactions at the pore to field scale in Upper Jurassic Smackover reef and carbonate shoal reservoirs associated with varying degrees of relief on pre-Mesozoic basement paleohighs in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. The project effort includes the prediction of fluid flow in carbonate reservoirs through reservoir simulation modeling which utilizes geologic reservoir characterization andmore » modeling and the prediction of carbonate reservoir architecture, heterogeneity and quality through seismic imaging. The primary goal of the project is to increase the profitability, producibility and efficiency of recovery of oil from existing and undiscovered Upper Jurassic fields characterized by reef and carbonate shoals associated with pre-Mesozoic basement paleohighs. Geoscientific reservoir property, geophysical seismic attribute, petrophysical property, and engineering property characterization has shown that reef (thrombolite) and shoal reservoir lithofacies developed on the flanks of high-relief crystalline basement paleohighs (Vocation Field example) and on the crest and flanks of low-relief crystalline basement paleohighs (Appleton Field example). The reef thrombolite lithofacies have higher reservoir quality than the shoal lithofacies due to overall higher permeabilities and greater interconnectivity. Thrombolite dolostone flow units, which are dominated by dolomite intercrystalline and vuggy pores, are characterized by a pore system comprised of a higher percentage of large-sized pores and larger pore throats. Rock-fluid interactions (diagenesis) studies have shown that although the primary control on reservoir architecture and geographic distribution of Smackover reservoirs is the fabric and texture of the depositional lithofacies, diagenesis (chiefly dolomitization) is a significant factor that preserves and enhances reservoir quality. The evaporative pumping mechanism is favored to explain the dolomitization of the thrombolite doloboundstone and dolostone reservoir flow units at Appleton and Vocation Fields. Geologic modeling, reservoir simulation, and the testing and applying the resulting integrated geologic-engineering models have shown that little oil remains to be recovered at Appleton Field and a significant amount of oil remains to be recovered at Vocation Field through a strategic infill drilling program. The drive mechanisms for primary production in Appleton and Vocation Fields remain effective; therefore, the initiation of a pressure maintenance program or enhanced recovery project is not required at this time. The integrated geologic-engineering model developed for a low-relief paleohigh (Appleton Field) was tested for three scenarios involving the variables of present-day structural elevation and the presence/absence of potential reef thrombolite lithofacies. In each case, the predictions based upon the model were correct. From this modeling, the characteristics of the ideal prospect in the basement ridge play include a low-relief paleohigh associated with dendroidal/chaotic thrombolite doloboundstone and dolostone that has sufficient present-day structural relief so that these carbonates rest above the oil-water contact. Such a prospect was identified from the modeling, and it is located northwest of well Permit No. 3854B (Appleton Field) and south of well No. Permit No.11030B (Northwest Appleton Field).« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hamlin, H.S.; Dutton, S.P.; Tyler, N.

The Tirrawarra Sandstone contains 146 million bbl of oil in Tirrawarra field in the Cooper basin of South Australia. We used core, well logs, and petro-physical data to construct a depositional-facies-based flow-unit model of the reservoir, which describes rock properties and hydrocarbon saturations in three dimensions. Using the model to calculate volumes and residency of original and remaining oil in place, we identified an additional 36 million bbl of oil in place and improved understanding of past production patterns. The Tirrawarra Sandstone reservoir was deposited in a Carboniferous-Permian proglacial intracratonic setting and is composed of lacustrine and fluvial facies assemblages.more » The stratigraphic framework of these nonmarine facies is defined by distinctive stacking patterns and erosional unconformities. Mudstone dominated zones that are analogous to marine maximum flooding surfaces bound the reservoir. At its base a progradational lacustrine-delta system, composed of lenticular mud-clast-rich sandstones enclosed in mudstone, is truncated by an unconformity. Sandstones in these lower deltaic facies lost most of their porosity by mechanical compaction of ductile grains. Sediment reworking by channel migration and locally shore-zone processes created by quartz-rich, multilateral sandstones, which retained the highest porosity and permeability of all the reservoir facies and contained most of the original oil in place. Braided-channel sandstones, however, are overlain by lenticular meandering-channel sandstones, which in turn grade upward into widespread mudstones and coals. Thus, this uppermost part of the reservoir displays a retrogradational stacking pattern and upward-decreasing reservoir quality. Our results demonstrate that depositional variables are the primary controls on reservoir quality and productivity in the Tirrawarra Sandstone.« less

Fourteenth workshop geothermal reservoir engineering: Proceedings

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ramey, H.J. Jr.; Kruger, P.; Horne, R.N.

1989-01-01

The Fourteenth Workshop on Geothermal Reservoir Engineering was held at Stanford University on January 24--26, 1989. Major areas of discussion include: (1) well testing; (2) various field results; (3) geoscience; (4) geochemistry; (5) reinjection; (6) hot dry rock; and (7) numerical modelling. For these workshop proceedings, individual papers are processed separately for the Energy Data Base.

Fourteenth workshop geothermal reservoir engineering: Proceedings

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ramey, H.J. Jr.; Kruger, P.; Horne, R.N.

The Fourteenth Workshop on Geothermal Reservoir Engineering was held at Stanford University on January 24--26, 1989. Major areas of discussion include: (1) well testing; (2) various field results; (3) geoscience; (4) geochemistry; (5) reinjection; (6) hot dry rock; and (7) numerical modelling. For these workshop proceedings, individual papers are processed separately for the Energy Data Base.

The role of predictive uncertainty in the operational management of reservoirs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Todini, E.

2014-09-01

The present work deals with the operational management of multi-purpose reservoirs, whose optimisation-based rules are derived, in the planning phase, via deterministic (linear and nonlinear programming, dynamic programming, etc.) or via stochastic (generally stochastic dynamic programming) approaches. In operation, the resulting deterministic or stochastic optimised operating rules are then triggered based on inflow predictions. In order to fully benefit from predictions, one must avoid using them as direct inputs to the reservoirs, but rather assess the "predictive knowledge" in terms of a predictive probability density to be operationally used in the decision making process for the estimation of expected benefits and/or expected losses. Using a theoretical and extremely simplified case, it will be shown why directly using model forecasts instead of the full predictive density leads to less robust reservoir management decisions. Moreover, the effectiveness and the tangible benefits for using the entire predictive probability density instead of the model predicted values will be demonstrated on the basis of the Lake Como management system, operational since 1997, as well as on the basis of a case study on the lake of Aswan.

Seismic modeling of complex stratified reservoirs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lai, Hung-Liang

Turbidite reservoirs in deep-water depositional systems, such as the oil fields in the offshore Gulf of Mexico and North Sea, are becoming an important exploration target in the petroleum industry. Accurate seismic reservoir characterization, however, is complicated by the heterogeneous of the sand and shale distribution and also by the lack of resolution when imaging thin channel deposits. Amplitude variation with offset (AVO) is a very important technique that is widely applied to locate hydrocarbons. Inaccurate estimates of seismic reflection amplitudes may result in misleading interpretations because of these problems in application to turbidite reservoirs. Therefore, an efficient, accurate, and robust method of modeling seismic responses for such complex reservoirs is crucial and necessary to reduce exploration risk. A fast and accurate approach generating synthetic seismograms for such reservoir models combines wavefront construction ray tracing with composite reflection coefficients in a hybrid modeling algorithm. The wavefront construction approach is a modern, fast implementation of ray tracing that I have extended to model quasi-shear wave propagation in anisotropic media. Composite reflection coefficients, which are computed using propagator matrix methods, provide the exact seismic reflection amplitude for a stratified reservoir model. This is a distinct improvement over conventional AVO analysis based on a model with only two homogeneous half spaces. I combine the two methods to compute synthetic seismograms for test models of turbidite reservoirs in the Ursa field, Gulf of Mexico, validating the new results against exact calculations using the discrete wavenumber method. The new method, however, can also be used to generate synthetic seismograms for the laterally heterogeneous, complex stratified reservoir models. The results show important frequency dependence that may be useful for exploration. Because turbidite channel systems often display complex vertical and lateral heterogeneity that is difficult to measure directly, stochastic modeling is often used to predict the range of possible seismic responses. Though binary models containing mixtures of sands and shales have been proposed in previous work, log measurements show that these are not good representations of real seismic properties. Therefore, I develop a new approach for generating stochastic turbidite models (STM) from a combination of geological interpretation and well log measurements that are more realistic. Calculations of the composite reflection coefficient and synthetic seismograms predict direct hydrocarbon indicators associated with such turbidite sequences. The STMs provide important insights to predict the seismic responses for the complexity of turbidite reservoirs. Results of AVO responses predict the presence of gas saturation in the sand beds. For example, as the source frequency increases, the uncertainty in AVO responses for brine and gas sands predict the possibility of false interpretation in AVO analysis.

Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Forecasting model.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brainard, James Robert

2009-10-01

This report documents The Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Water Forecasting model. The model has been constructed using Powersim Studio (PS), a software package designed to investigate complex systems where flows and accumulations are central to the system. Here PS has been used as a platform for modeling various aspects of Nambe Pueblo's current and future water use. The model contains three major components, the Water Forecast Component, Irrigation Scheduling Component, and the Reservoir Model Component. In each of the components, the user can change variables to investigate the impacts of water management scenarios on future water use. The Watermore » Forecast Component includes forecasting for industrial, commercial, and livestock use. Domestic demand is also forecasted based on user specified current population, population growth rates, and per capita water consumption. Irrigation efficiencies are quantified in the Irrigated Agriculture component using critical information concerning diversion rates, acreages, ditch dimensions and seepage rates. Results from this section are used in the Water Demand Forecast, Irrigation Scheduling, and the Reservoir Model components. The Reservoir Component contains two sections, (1) Storage and Inflow Accumulations by Categories and (2) Release, Diversion and Shortages. Results from both sections are derived from the calibrated Nambe Reservoir model where historic, pre-dam or above dam USGS stream flow data is fed into the model and releases are calculated.« less

Development of a study design and implementation plan to estimate juvenile salmon survival in Lookout Point Reservoir and other reservoirs of the Willamette Project, western Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kock, Tobias J.; Perry, Russell W.; Monzyk, Fred R.; Pope, Adam C.; Plumb, John M.

2016-12-23

Survival estimates for juvenile salmon and steelhead fry in reservoirs impounded by high head dams are coveted data by resource managers.  However, this information is difficult to obtain because these fish are too small for tagging using conventional methods such as passive-integrated transponders or radio or acoustic transmitters.  We developed a study design and implementation plan to conduct a pilot evaluation that would assess the performance of two models for estimating fry survival in a field setting.  The first model is a staggered-release recovery model that was described by Skalski and others (2009) and Skalski (2016).  The second model is a parentage-based tagging N-mixture model that was developed and described in this document.  Both models are conceptually and statistically sound, but neither has been evaluated in the field.  In this document we provide an overview of a proposed study for 2017 in Lookout Point Reservoir, Oregon, that will evaluate survival of Chinook salmon fry using both models.  This approach will allow us to test each model and compare survival estimates, to determine model performance and better understand these study designs using field-collected data.

T-R Cycle Characterization and Imaging: Advanced Diagnostic Methodology for Petroleum Reservoir and Trap Detection and Delineation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ernest A. Mancini

Characterization of stratigraphic sequences (T-R cycles or sequences) included outcrop studies, well log analysis and seismic reflection interpretation. These studies were performed by researchers at the University of Alabama, Wichita State University and McGill University. The outcrop, well log and seismic characterization studies were used to develop a depositional sequence model, a T-R cycle (sequence) model, and a sequence stratigraphy predictive model. The sequence stratigraphy predictive model developed in this study is based primarily on the modified T-R cycle (sequence) model. The T-R cycle (sequence) model using transgressive and regressive systems tracts and aggrading, backstepping, and infilling intervals or sectionsmore » was found to be the most appropriate sequence stratigraphy model for the strata in the onshore interior salt basins of the Gulf of Mexico to improve petroleum stratigraphic trap and specific reservoir facies imaging, detection and delineation. The known petroleum reservoirs of the Mississippi Interior and North Louisiana Salt Basins were classified using T-R cycle (sequence) terminology. The transgressive backstepping reservoirs have been the most productive of oil, and the transgressive backstepping and regressive infilling reservoirs have been the most productive of gas. Exploration strategies were formulated using the sequence stratigraphy predictive model and the classification of the known petroleum reservoirs utilizing T-R cycle (sequence) terminology. The well log signatures and seismic reflector patterns were determined to be distinctive for the aggrading, backstepping and infilling sections of the T-R cycle (sequence) and as such, well log and seismic data are useful for recognizing and defining potential reservoir facies. The use of the sequence stratigraphy predictive model, in combination with the knowledge of how the distinctive characteristics of the T-R system tracts and their subdivisions are expressed in well log patterns and seismic reflection configurations and terminations, improves the ability to identify and define the limits of potential stratigraphic traps and the stratigraphic component of combination stratigraphic and structural traps and the associated continental, coastal plain and marine potential reservoir facies. The assessment of the underdeveloped and undiscovered reservoirs and resources in the Mississippi Interior and North Louisiana Salt Basins resulted in the confirmation of the Monroe Uplift as a feature characterized by a major regional unconformity, which serves as a combination stratigraphic and structural trap with a significant stratigraphic component, and the characterization of a developing play in southwest Alabama, which involves a stratigraphic trap, located updip near the pinchout of the potential reservoir facies. Potential undiscovered and underdeveloped reservoirs in the onshore interior salt basins are identified as Jurassic and Cretaceous aggrading continental and coastal, backstepping nearshore marine and marine shelf, and infilling fluvial, deltaic, coastal plain and marine shelf.« less

Assessment of Short Term Flood Operation Strategies Using Numerical Weather Prediction Data in YUVACΙK DAM Reservoir, Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uysal, G.; Yavuz, O.; Sensoy, A.; Sorman, A.; Akgun, T.; Gezgin, T.

2011-12-01

Yuvacik Dam Reservoir Basin, located in the Marmara region of Turkey with 248 km2 drainage area, has steep topography, mild and rainy climate thus induces high flood potential with fast flow response, especially to early spring and fall precipitation events. Moreover, the basin provides considerable snowmelt contribution to the streamflow during melt season since the elevation ranges between 80 - 1548 m. The long term strategies are based on supplying annual demand of 142 hm3 water despite a relatively small reservoir capacity of 51 hm3. This situation makes short term release decisions as the challenging task regarding the constrained downstream safe channel capacity especially in times of floods. Providing the demand of 1.5 million populated city of Kocaeli is the highest priority issue in terms of reservoir management but risk optimization is also required due to flood regulation. Although, the spillway capacity is 1560 m3/s, the maximum amount of water to be released is set as 100 m3/s by the regional water authority taking into consideration the downstream channel capacity which passes through industrial region of the city. The reservoir is a controlled one and it is possible to hold back the 15 hm3 additional water by keeping the gates closed. Flood regulation is set to achieve the maximum possible flood attenuation by using the full flood-control zone capacity in the reservoir before making releases in excess of the downstream safe-channel capacity. However, the operators still need to exceed flood regulation zones to take precautions for drought summer periods in order to supply water without any shortage that increases the risk in times of flood. Regarding to this circumstances, a hydrological model integrated reservoir modeling system, is applied to account for the physical behavior of the system. Hence, this reservoir modeling is carried out to analyze both previous decisions and also the future scenarios as a decision support tool for operators. In the first step, a hydrological model with an embedded snow module is used to establish a rainfall-runoff relationship to calculate the inflow into the dam reservoir. The basin is divided into four sub-basins, along with the three elevation zones for each subbasin. Hydro-meteorological data are collected via 11 automated stations in and around the basin and a semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model, HEC-HMS, is calibrated for sub-basins. Then, HEC-ResSim is used to create simulation alternatives of reservoir system according to user defined guide curves and rules based on internal and/or external variables. The decision support modeling scenarios are tested with Numerical Weather Prediction Mesoscale Model 5 (MM5) daily total precipitation and daily average temperature data. Predicted precipitation and temperature data are compared with ground observations to examine the consistency. Predicted inflows computed by HEC-HMS are used as main forcing inputs into HEC-ResSim for the short term operation of reservoir during the flood events.

Research on three-dimensional visualization based on virtual reality and Internet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Zongmin; Yang, Haibo; Zhao, Hongling; Li, Jiren; Zhu, Qiang; Zhang, Xiaohong; Sun, Kai

2007-06-01

To disclose and display water information, a three-dimensional visualization system based on Virtual Reality (VR) and Internet is researched for demonstrating "digital water conservancy" application and also for routine management of reservoir. To explore and mine in-depth information, after completion of modeling high resolution DEM with reliable quality, topographical analysis, visibility analysis and reservoir volume computation are studied. And also, some parameters including slope, water level and NDVI are selected to classify easy-landslide zone in water-level-fluctuating zone of reservoir area. To establish virtual reservoir scene, two kinds of methods are used respectively for experiencing immersion, interaction and imagination (3I). First virtual scene contains more detailed textures to increase reality on graphical workstation with virtual reality engine Open Scene Graph (OSG). Second virtual scene is for internet users with fewer details for assuring fluent speed.

Performance prediction using geostatistics and window reservoir simulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fontanilla, J.P.; Al-Khalawi, A.A.; Johnson, S.G.

1995-11-01

This paper is the first window model study in the northern area of a large carbonate reservoir in Saudi Arabia. It describes window reservoir simulation with geostatistics to model uneven water encroachment in the southwest producing area of the northern portion of the reservoir. In addition, this paper describes performance predictions that investigate the sweep efficiency of the current peripheral waterflood. A 50 x 50 x 549 (240 m. x 260 m. x 0.15 m. average grid block size) geological model was constructed with geostatistics software. Conditional simulation was used to obtain spatial distributions of porosity and volume of dolomite.more » Core data transforms were used to obtain horizontal and vertical permeability distributions. Simple averaging techniques were used to convert the 549-layer geological model to a 50 x 50 x 10 (240 m. x 260 m. x 8 m. average grid block size) window reservoir simulation model. Flux injectors and flux producers were assigned to the outermost grid blocks. Historical boundary flux rates were obtained from a coarsely-ridded full-field model. Pressure distribution, water cuts, GORs, and recent flowmeter data were history matched. Permeability correction factors and numerous parameter adjustments were required to obtain the final history match. The permeability correction factors were based on pressure transient permeability-thickness analyses. The prediction phase of the study evaluated the effects of infill drilling, the use of artificial lifts, workovers, horizontal wells, producing rate constraints, and tight zone development to formulate depletion strategies for the development of this area. The window model will also be used to investigate day-to-day reservoir management problems in this area.« less

Wastewater injection and slip triggering: Results from a 3D coupled reservoir/rate-and-state model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Babazadeh, M.; Olson, J. E.; Schultz, R.

2017-12-01

Seismicity induced by fluid injection is controlled by parameters related to injection conditions, reservoir properties, and fault frictional behavior. We present results from a combined model that brings together injection physics, reservoir dynamics, and fault physics to better explain the primary controls on induced seismicity. We created a 3D fluid flow simulator using the embedded discrete fracture technique and then coupled it with a 3D displacement discontinuity model that uses rate and state friction to model slip events. The model is composed of three layers, including the top-seal, the injection reservoir, and the basement. Permeability is anisotropic (vertical vs horizontal) and along with porosity varies by layer. Injection control can be either rate or pressure. Fault properties include size, 2D permeability, and frictional properties. Several suites of simulations were run to evaluate the relative importance of each of the factors from all three parameter groups. We find that the injection parameters interact with the reservoir parameters in the context of the fault physics and these relations change for different reservoir and fault characteristics, leading to the need to examine the injection parameters only within the context of a particular faulted reservoir. For a reservoir with no flow boundaries, low permeability (5 md), and a fault with high fault-parallel permeability and critical stress, injection rate exerts the strongest control on magnitude and frequency of earthquakes. However, for a higher permeability reservoir (80 md), injection volume becomes the more important factor. Fault permeability structure is a key factor in inducing earthquakes in basement rocks below the injection reservoir. The initial failure state of the fault, which is challenging to assess, can have a big effect on the size and timing of events. For a fault 2 MPa below critical state, we were able to induce a slip event, but it occurred late in the injection history and was limited to a subset of the fault extent. A case starting at critical stress resulted in a rupture that propagated throughout the entire physical extent of the fault generated a larger magnitude earthquake. This physics-based model can contribute to assessing the risk associated with injection activities and providing guidelines for hazard mitigation.

On the importance of the heterogeneity assumption in the characterization of reservoir geomechanical properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zoccarato, C.; Baù, D.; Bottazzi, F.; Ferronato, M.; Gambolati, G.; Mantica, S.; Teatini, P.

2016-10-01

The geomechanical analysis of a highly compartmentalized reservoir is performed to simulate the seafloor subsidence due to gas production. The available observations over the hydrocarbon reservoir consist of bathymetric surveys carried out before and at the end of a 10-yr production life. The main goal is the calibration of the reservoir compressibility cM, that is, the main geomechanical parameter controlling the surface response. Two conceptual models are considered: in one (i) cM varies only with the depth and the vertical effective stress (heterogeneity due to lithostratigraphic variability); in another (ii) cM varies also in the horizontal plane, that is, it is spatially distributed within the reservoir stratigraphic units. The latter hypothesis accounts for a possible partitioning of the reservoir due to the presence of sealing faults and thrusts that suggests the idea of a block heterogeneous system with the number of reservoir blocks equal to the number of uncertain parameters. The method applied here relies on an ensemble-based data assimilation (DA) algorithm (i.e. the ensemble smoother, ES), which incorporates the information from the bathymetric measurements into the geomechanical model response to infer and reduce the uncertainty of the parameter cM. The outcome from conceptual model (i) indicates that DA is effective in reducing the cM uncertainty. However, the maximum settlement still remains underestimated, while the areal extent of the subsidence bowl is overestimated. We demonstrate that the selection of the heterogeneous conceptual model (ii) allows to reproduce much better the observations thus removing a clear bias of the model structure. DA allows significantly reducing the cM uncertainty in the five blocks (out of the seven) characterized by large volume and large pressure decline. Conversely, the assimilation of land displacements only partially constrains the prior cM uncertainty in the reservoir blocks marginally contributing to the cumulative seafloor subsidence, that is, blocks with low pressure.

Real-time reservoir operation considering non-stationary inflow prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, J.; Xu, W.; Cai, X.; Wang, Z.

2011-12-01

Stationarity of inflow has been a basic assumption for reservoir operation rule design, which is now facing challenges due to climate change and human interferences. This paper proposes a modeling framework to incorporate non-stationary inflow prediction for optimizing the hedging operation rule of large reservoirs with multiple-year flow regulation capacity. A multi-stage optimization model is formulated and a solution algorithm based on the optimality conditions is developed to incorporate non-stationary annual inflow prediction through a rolling, dynamic framework that updates the prediction from period to period and adopt the updated prediction in reservoir operation decision. The prediction model is ARIMA(4,1,0), in which parameter 4 stands for the order of autoregressive, 1 represents a linear trend, and 0 is the order of moving average. The modeling framework and solution algorithm is applied to the Miyun reservoir in China, determining a yearly operating schedule during the period from 1996 to 2009, during which there was a significant declining trend of reservoir inflow. Different operation policy scenarios are modeled, including standard operation policy (SOP, matching the current demand as much as possible), hedging rule (i.e., leaving a certain amount of water for future to avoid large risk of water deficit) with forecast from ARIMA (HR-1), hedging (HR) with perfect forecast (HR-2 ). Compared to the results of these scenarios to that of the actual reservoir operation (AO), the utility of the reservoir operation under HR-1 is 3.0% lower than HR-2, but 3.7% higher than the AO and 14.4% higher than SOP. Note that the utility under AO is 10.3% higher than that under SOP, which shows that a certain level of hedging under some inflow prediction or forecast was used in the real-world operation. Moreover, the impacts of discount rate and forecast uncertainty level on the operation will be discussed.

Population dynamics of the Concho water snake in rivers and reservoirs

USGS Publications Warehouse

Whiting, M.J.; Dixon, J.R.; Greene, B.D.; Mueller, J.M.; Thornton, O.W.; Hatfield, J.S.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.

2008-01-01

The Concho Water Snake (Nerodia harteri paucimaculata) is confined to the Concho–Colorado River valley of central Texas, thereby occupying one of the smallest geographic ranges of any North American snake. In 1986, N. h. paucimaculata was designated as a federally threatened species, in large part because of reservoir projects that were perceived to adversely affect the amount of habitat available to the snake. During a ten-year period (1987–1996), we conducted capture–recapture field studies to assess dynamics of five subpopulations of snakes in both natural (river) and man-made (reservoir) habitats. Because of differential sampling of subpopulations, we present separate results for all five subpopulations combined (including large reservoirs) and three of the five subpopulations (excluding large reservoirs). We used multistate capture–recapture models to deal with stochastic transitions between pre-reproductive and reproductive size classes and to allow for the possibility of different survival and capture probabilities for the two classes. We also estimated both the finite rate of increase (λ) for a deterministic, stage-based, female-only matrix model using the average litter size, and the average rate of adult population change, λ ˆ, which describes changes in numbers of adult snakes, using a direct capture–recapture approach to estimation. Average annual adult survival was about 0.23 and similar for males and females. Average annual survival for subadults was about 0.14. The parameter estimates from the stage-based projection matrix analysis all yielded asymptotic values of λ < 1, suggesting populations that are not viable. However, the direct estimates of average adult λ for the three subpopulations excluding major reservoirs were λ ˆ  =  1.26, SE ˆ(λ ˆ)  =  0.18 and λ ˆ  =  0.99, SE ˆ(λ ˆ)  =  0.79, based on two different models. Thus, the direct estimation approach did not provide strong evidence of population declines of the riverine subpopulations, but the estimates are characterized by substantial uncertainty.

Quantifying suspended sediment loads delivered to Cheney Reservoir, Kansas: Temporal patterns and management implications

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stone, Mandy L.; Juracek, Kyle E.; Graham, Jennifer L.; Foster, Guy

2015-01-01

Cheney Reservoir, constructed during 1962 to 1965, is the primary water supply for the city of Wichita, the largest city in Kansas. Sediment is an important concern for the reservoir as it degrades water quality and progressively decreases water storage capacity. Long-term data collection provided a unique opportunity to estimate the annual suspended sediment loads for the entire history of the reservoir. To quantify and characterize sediment loading to Cheney Reservoir, discrete suspended sediment samples and continuously measured streamflow data were collected from the North Fork Ninnescah River, the primary inflow to Cheney Reservoir, over a 48-year period. Continuous turbidity data also were collected over a 15-year period. These data were used together to develop simple linear regression models to compute continuous suspended sediment concentrations and loads from 1966 to 2013. The inclusion of turbidity as an additional explanatory variable with streamflow improved regression model diagnostics and increased the amount of variability in suspended sediment concentration explained by 14%. Using suspended sediment concentration from the streamflow-only model, the average annual suspended sediment load was 102,517 t (113,006 tn) and ranged from 4,826 t (5,320 tn) in 1966 to 967,569 t (1,066,562 tn) in 1979. The sediment load in 1979 accounted for about 20% of the total load over the 48-year history of the reservoir and 92% of the 1979 sediment load occurred in one 24-hour period during a 1% annual exceedance probability flow event (104-year flood). Nearly 60% of the reservoir sediment load during the 48-year study period occurred in 5 years with extreme flow events (9% to 1% annual exceedance probability, or 11- to 104-year flood events). A substantial portion (41%) of sediment was transported to the reservoir during five storm events spanning only eight 24-hour periods during 1966 to 2013. Annual suspended sediment load estimates based on streamflow were, on average, within ±20% of estimates based on streamflow and turbidity combined. Results demonstrate that large suspended sediment loads are delivered to Cheney Reservoir in very short time periods, indicating that sediment management plans eventually must address large, infrequent inflow events to be effective.

Fluid identification based on P-wave anisotropy dispersion gradient inversion for fractured reservoirs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, J. W.; Huang, H. D.; Zhu, B. H.; Liao, W.

2017-10-01

Fluid identification in fractured reservoirs is a challenging issue and has drawn increasing attentions. As aligned fractures in subsurface formations can induce anisotropy, we must choose parameters independent with azimuths to characterize fractures and fluid effects such as anisotropy parameters for fractured reservoirs. Anisotropy is often frequency dependent due to wave-induced fluid flow between pores and fractures. This property is conducive for identifying fluid type using azimuthal seismic data in fractured reservoirs. Through the numerical simulation based on Chapman model, we choose the P-wave anisotropy parameter dispersion gradient (PADG) as the new fluid factor. PADG is dependent both on average fracture radius and fluid type but independent on azimuths. When the aligned fractures in the reservoir are meter-scaled, gas-bearing layer could be accurately identified using PADG attribute. The reflection coefficient formula for horizontal transverse isotropy media by Rüger is reformulated and simplified according to frequency and the target function for inverting PADG based on frequency-dependent amplitude versus azimuth is derived. A spectral decomposition method combining Orthogonal Matching Pursuit and Wigner-Ville distribution is used to prepare the frequency-division data. Through application to synthetic data and real seismic data, the results suggest that the method is useful for gas identification in reservoirs with meter-scaled fractures using high-qualified seismic data.

Geodetic imaging: Reservoir monitoring using satellite interferometry

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vasco, D.W.; Wicks, C.; Karasaki, K.; Marques, O.

2002-01-01

Fluid fluxes within subsurface reservoirs give rise to surface displacements, particularly over periods of a year or more. Observations of such deformation provide a powerful tool for mapping fluid migration within the Earth, providing new insights into reservoir dynamics. In this paper we use Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) range changes to infer subsurface fluid volume strain at the Coso geothermal field. Furthermore, we conduct a complete model assessment, using an iterative approach to compute model parameter resolution and covariance matrices. The method is a generalization of a Lanczos-based technique which allows us to include fairly general regularization, such as roughness penalties. We find that we can resolve quite detailed lateral variations in volume strain both within the reservoir depth range (0.4-2.5 km) and below the geothermal production zone (2.5-5.0 km). The fractional volume change in all three layers of the model exceeds the estimated model parameter uncertainly by a factor of two or more. In the reservoir depth interval (0.4-2.5 km), the predominant volume change is associated with northerly and westerly oriented faults and their intersections. However, below the geothermal production zone proper [the depth range 2.5-5.0 km], there is the suggestion that both north- and northeast-trending faults may act as conduits for fluid flow.

Using the nonlinear aquifer storage-discharge relationship to simulate the base flow of glacier- and snowmelt-dominated basins in northwest China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gan, R.; Luo, Y.

2013-09-01

Base flow is an important component in hydrological modeling. This process is usually modeled by using the linear aquifer storage-discharge relation approach, although the outflow from groundwater aquifers is nonlinear. To identify the accuracy of base flow estimates in rivers dominated by snowmelt and/or glacier melt in arid and cold northwestern China, a nonlinear storage-discharge relationship for use in SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool) modeling was developed and applied to the Manas River basin in the Tian Shan Mountains. Linear reservoir models and a digital filter program were used for comparisons. Meanwhile, numerical analysis of recession curves from 78 river gauge stations revealed variation in the parameters of the nonlinear relationship. It was found that the nonlinear reservoir model can improve the streamflow simulation, especially for low-flow period. The higher Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, logarithmic efficiency, and volumetric efficiency, and lower percent bias were obtained when compared to the one-linear reservoir approach. The parameter b of the aquifer storage-discharge function varied mostly between 0.0 and 0.1, which is much smaller than the suggested value of 0.5. The coefficient a of the function is related to catchment properties, primarily the basin and glacier areas.

Analysis of formation pressure test results in the Mount Elbert methane hydrate reservoir through numerical simulation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kurihara, M.; Sato, A.; Funatsu, K.; Ouchi, H.; Masuda, Y.; Narita, H.; Collett, T.S.

2011-01-01

Targeting the methane hydrate (MH) bearing units C and D at the Mount Elbert prospect on the Alaska North Slope, four MDT (Modular Dynamic Formation Tester) tests were conducted in February 2007. The C2 MDT test was selected for history matching simulation in the MH Simulator Code Comparison Study. Through history matching simulation, the physical and chemical properties of the unit C were adjusted, which suggested the most likely reservoir properties of this unit. Based on these properties thus tuned, the numerical models replicating "Mount Elbert C2 zone like reservoir" "PBU L-Pad like reservoir" and "PBU L-Pad down dip like reservoir" were constructed. The long term production performances of wells in these reservoirs were then forecasted assuming the MH dissociation and production by the methods of depressurization, combination of depressurization and wellbore heating, and hot water huff and puff. The predicted cumulative gas production ranges from 2.16??106m3/well to 8.22??108m3/well depending mainly on the initial temperature of the reservoir and on the production method.This paper describes the details of modeling and history matching simulation. This paper also presents the results of the examinations on the effects of reservoir properties on MH dissociation and production performances under the application of the depressurization and thermal methods. ?? 2010 Elsevier Ltd.

Deriving adaptive operating rules of hydropower reservoirs using time-varying parameters generated by the EnKF

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, Maoyuan; Liu, Pan; Guo, Shenglian; Shi, Liangsheng; Deng, Chao; Ming, Bo

2017-08-01

Operating rules have been used widely to decide reservoir operations because of their capacity for coping with uncertain inflow. However, stationary operating rules lack adaptability; thus, under changing environmental conditions, they cause inefficient reservoir operation. This paper derives adaptive operating rules based on time-varying parameters generated using the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). A deterministic optimization model is established to obtain optimal water releases, which are further taken as observations of the reservoir simulation model. The EnKF is formulated to update the operating rules sequentially, providing a series of time-varying parameters. To identify the index that dominates the variations of the operating rules, three hydrologic factors are selected: the reservoir inflow, ratio of future inflow to current available water, and available water. Finally, adaptive operating rules are derived by fitting the time-varying parameters with the identified dominant hydrologic factor. China's Three Gorges Reservoir was selected as a case study. Results show that (1) the EnKF has the capability of capturing the variations of the operating rules, (2) reservoir inflow is the factor that dominates the variations of the operating rules, and (3) the derived adaptive operating rules are effective in improving hydropower benefits compared with stationary operating rules. The insightful findings of this study could be used to help adapt reservoir operations to mitigate the effects of changing environmental conditions.

Field-based simulation of a demonstration site for carbon dioxide sequestration in low-permeability saline aquifers in the Ordos Basin, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, Jian; Zhang, Keni; Hu, Litang; Pavelic, Paul; Wang, Yongsheng; Chen, Maoshan

2015-11-01

Saline formations are considered to be candidates for carbon sequestration due to their great depths, large storage volumes, and widespread occurrence. However, injecting carbon dioxide into low-permeability reservoirs is challenging. An active demonstration project for carbon dioxide sequestration in the Ordos Basin, China, began in 2010. The site is characterized by a deep, multi-layered saline reservoir with permeability mostly below 1.0 × 10-14 m2. Field observations so far suggest that only small-to-moderate pressure buildup has taken place due to injection. The Triassic Liujiagou sandstone at the top of the reservoir has surprisingly high injectivity and accepts approximately 80 % of the injected mass at the site. Based on these key observations, a three-dimensional numerical model was developed and applied, to predict the plume dynamics and pressure propagation, and in the assessment of storage safety. The model is assembled with the most recent data and the simulations are calibrated to the latest available observations. The model explains most of the observed phenomena at the site. With the current operation scheme, the CO2 plume at the uppermost reservoir would reach a lateral distance of 658 m by the end of the project in 2015, and approximately 1,000 m after 100 years since injection. The resulting pressure buildup in the reservoir was below 5 MPa, far below the threshold to cause fracturing of the sealing cap (around 33 MPa).

Biogeochemical mass balances in a turbid tropical reservoir. Field data and modelling approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Phuong Doan, Thuy Kim; Némery, Julien; Gratiot, Nicolas; Schmid, Martin

2014-05-01

The turbid tropical Cointzio reservoir, located in the Trans Mexican Volcanic Belt (TMVB), behaves as a warm monomictic water body (area = 6 km2, capacity 66 Mm3, residence time ~ 1 year). It is strategic for the drinking water supply of the city of Morelia, capital of the state of Michoacán, and for downstream irrigation during the dry season. This reservoir is a perfect example of a human-impacted system since its watershed is mainly composed of degraded volcanic soils and is subjected to high erosion processes and agricultural loss. The reservoir is threatened by sediment accumulation and nutrients originating from untreated waters in the upstream watershed. The high content of very fine clay particles and the lack of water treatment plants lead to serious episodes of eutrophication (up to 70 μg chl. a L-1), high levels of turbidity (Secchi depth < 30 cm) and a long period of anoxia (from May to October). Based on intensive field measurements in 2009 (deposited sediment, benthic chamber, water vertical profiles, reservoir inflow and outflow) we determined suspended sediment (SS), carbon (C), nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) mass balances. Watershed SS yields were estimated at 35 t km2 y-1 of which 89-92 % were trapped in the Cointzio reservoir. As a consequence the reservoir has already lost 25 % of its initial storage capacity since its construction in 1940. Nutrient mass balances showed that 50 % and 46 % of incoming P and N were retained by sedimentation, and mainly eliminated through denitrification respectively. Removal of C by 30 % was also observed both by sedimentation and through gas emission. To complete field data analyses we examined the ability of vertical one dimensional (1DV) numerical models (Aquasim biogeochemical model coupled with k-ɛ mixing model) to reproduce the main biogeochemical cycles in the Cointzio reservoir. The model can describe all the mineralization processes both in the water column and in the sediment. The values of the entire mass balance of nutrients and of the mineralization rates (denitrification and aerobic benthic mineralization) calculated from the model fitted well to the field measurements. Furthermore, this analysis indicates that the benthic mineralizations are the dominant processes involved in the nutrients release. This is the first implementation of a biogeochemical model applied to a highly productive reservoir in the TMVB in order to estimate nutrients release from sediments. It could be used for scenarios of reduction of eutrophication in the reservoir. This study provides a good example of the behavior of a small tropical reservoir under intense human pressure and it will help stakeholders to adopt appropriate strategies for the management of turbid tropical reservoirs.

Numerical simulation and fracture identification of dual laterolog in organic shale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maojin, Tan; Peng, Wang; Qiong, Liu

2012-09-01

Fracture is one of important spaces in shale oil and shale gas reservoirs, and fractures identification and evaluation are an important part in organic shale interpretation. According to the fractured shale gas reservoir, a physical model is set up to study the dual laterolog logging responses. First, based on the principle of dual laterolog, three-dimensional finite element method (FEM) is used to simulate the dual laterolog responses in various formation models with different fractures widths, different fracture numbers, different fractures inclination angle. All the results are extremely important for the fracture identification and evaluation in shale reservoirs. Appointing to different base rock resistivity models, the fracture models are constructed respectively through a number of numerical simulation, and the fracture porosity can be calculated by solving the corresponding formulas. A case study about organic shale formation is analyst and discussed, and the fracture porosity is calculated from dual laterolog. The fracture evaluation results are also be validated right by Full borehole Micro-resistivity Imaging (FMI). So, in case of the absence of borehole resistivity imaging log, the dual laterolog resistivity can be used to estimate the fracture development.

Quantitative modeling of reservoir-triggered seismicity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hainzl, S.; Catalli, F.; Dahm, T.; Heinicke, J.; Woith, H.

2017-12-01

Reservoir-triggered seismicity might occur as the response to the crustal stress caused by the poroelastic response to the weight of the water volume and fluid diffusion. Several cases of high correlations have been found in the past decades. However, crustal stresses might be altered by many other processes such as continuous tectonic stressing and coseismic stress changes. Because reservoir-triggered stresses decay quickly with distance, even tidal or rainfall-triggered stresses might be of similar size at depth. To account for simultaneous stress sources in a physically meaningful way, we apply a seismicity model based on calculated stress changes in the crust and laboratory-derived friction laws. Based on the observed seismicity, the model parameters can be determined by maximum likelihood method. The model leads to quantitative predictions of the variations of seismicity rate in space and time which can be used for hypothesis testing and forecasting. For case studies in Talala (India), Val d'Agri (Italy) and Novy Kostel (Czech Republic), we show the comparison of predicted and observed seismicity, demonstrating the potential and limitations of the approach.

Computer simulation of reservoir depletion and oil flow from the Macondo well following the Deepwater Horizon blowout

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hsieh, Paul

2010-01-01

This report describes the application of a computer model to simulate reservoir depletion and oil flow from the Macondo well following the Deepwater Horizon blowout. Reservoir and fluid data used for model development are based on (1) information released in BP's investigation report of the incident, (2) information provided by BP personnel during meetings in Houston, Texas, and (3) calibration by history matching to shut-in pressures measured in the capping stack during the Well Integrity Test. The model is able to closely match the measured shut-in pressures. In the simulation of the 86-day period from the blowout to shut in, the simulated reservoir pressure at the well face declines from the initial reservoir pressure of 11,850 pounds per square inch (psi) to 9,400 psi. After shut in, the simulated reservoir pressure recovers to a final value of 10,300 psi. The pressure does not recover back to the initial pressure owing to reservoir depletion caused by 86 days of oil discharge. The simulated oil flow rate declines from 63,600 stock tank barrels per day just after the Deepwater Horizon blowout to 52,600 stock tank barrels per day just prior to shut in. The simulated total volume of oil discharged is 4.92 million stock tank barrels. The overall uncertainty in the simulated flow rates and total volume of oil discharged is estimated to be + or - 10 percent.

Radiocarbon Anomalies of Surface Waters in the Glacial-to-Deglacial Low-to-Mid-Latitude Atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarnthein, M.; Balmer, S.; Mudelsee, M.

2015-12-01

14C reservoir ages of surface waters are crucial for dating marine sediment records of the last 40,000 yr. In the low-latitude Atlantic, time series of 14C reservoir ages were reconstructed for five sites using the 14C plateau-tuning technique and supplemented by a reservoir age record from southern mid-latitudes (Skinner et al., 2010). Results suggest small-scale spatial and short-term (multi-centennial-scale) changes in reservoir age over last glacial-to-deglacial times, thus modify previously assigned calendar age chronologies by up to 500-2500 yr. During late peak glacial, enhanced summer winds off South Brazil and strengthened southerly trades off Namibia induced local reservoir ages of up to 900-1100 yr, whereas surface water ages in the Cariaco lagoon fell close to zero, a result of dominant CO2 exchange with the atmosphere. Near 16.05 ka, reservoir ages dropped to a minimum of 170-420 yr all over the South Atlantic, possibly the response to an immediately preceding short-term major rise in atmospheric pCO2 and East Antarctic temperatures. Our 14C reservoir ages provide a first basis for systematic data-model comparisons. They largely confirm model-based estimates for the LGM (Butzin et al., 2012) that have been derived from changes in both atmospheric 14C concentration and reductions in AMOC. Deviations are constrained to coastal upwelling zones in part insufficiently resolved by numerical models.

Risk Factors for Campylobacteriosis of Chicken, Ruminant, and Environmental Origin: A Combined Case-Control and Source Attribution Analysis

PubMed Central

Wagenaar, Jaap A.; de Boer, Albert G.; Havelaar, Arie H.; Friesema, Ingrid H. M.; French, Nigel P.; Busani, Luca; van Pelt, Wilfrid

2012-01-01

Background Campylobacteriosis contributes strongly to the disease burden of food-borne pathogens. Case-control studies are limited in attributing human infections to the different reservoirs because they can only trace back to the points of exposure, which may not point to the original reservoirs because of cross-contamination. Human Campylobacter infections can be attributed to specific reservoirs by estimating the extent of subtype sharing between strains from humans and reservoirs using multilocus sequence typing (MLST). Methodology/Principal Findings We investigated risk factors for human campylobacteriosis caused by Campylobacter strains attributed to different reservoirs. Sequence types (STs) were determined for 696 C. jejuni and 41 C. coli strains from endemic human cases included in a case-control study. The asymmetric island model, a population genetics approach for modeling Campylobacter evolution and transmission, attributed these cases to four putative animal reservoirs (chicken, cattle, sheep, pig) and to the environment (water, sand, wild birds) considered as a proxy for other unidentified reservoirs. Most cases were attributed to chicken (66%) and cattle (21%), identified as the main reservoirs in The Netherlands. Consuming chicken was a risk factor for campylobacteriosis caused by chicken-associated STs, whereas consuming beef and pork were protective. Risk factors for campylobacteriosis caused by ruminant-associated STs were contact with animals, barbecuing in non-urban areas, consumption of tripe, and never/seldom chicken consumption. Consuming game and swimming in a domestic swimming pool during springtime were risk factors for campylobacteriosis caused by environment-associated STs. Infections with chicken- and ruminant-associated STs were only partially explained by food-borne transmission; direct contact and environmental pathways were also important. Conclusion/Significance This is the first case-control study in which risk factors for campylobacteriosis are investigated in relation to the attributed reservoirs based on MLST profiles. Combining epidemiological and source attribution data improved campylobacteriosis risk factor identification and characterization, generated hypotheses, and showed that genotype-based source attribution is epidemiologically sensible. PMID:22880049

[Water environmental capacity calculation model for the rivers in drinking water source conservation area].

PubMed

Chen, Ding-jiang; Lü, Jun; Shen, Ye-na; Jin, Shu-quan; Shi, Yi-ming

2008-09-01

Based on the one-dimension model for water environmental capacity (WEC) in river, a new model for the WEC estimation in river-reservoir system was developed in drinking water source conservation area (DWSCA). In the new model, the concept was introduced that the water quality target of the rivers in DWSCA was determined by the water quality demand of reservoir for drinking water source. It implied that the WEC of the reservoir could be used as the water quality control target at the reach-end of the upstream rivers in DWSCA so that the problems for WEC estimation might be avoided that the differences of the standards for a water quality control target between in river and in reservoir, such as the criterions differences for total phosphorus (TP)/total nitrogen (TN) between in reservoir and in river according to the National Surface Water Quality Standard of China (GB 3838-2002), and the difference of designed hydrology conditions for WEC estimation between in reservoir and in river. The new model described the quantitative relationship between the WEC of drinking water source and of the river, and it factually expressed the continuity and interplay of these low water areas. As a case study, WEC for the rivers in DWSCA of Laohutan reservoir located in southeast China was estimated using the new model. Results indicated that the WEC for TN and TP was 65.05 t x a(-1) and 5.05 t x a(-1) in the rivers of the DWSCA, respectively. According to the WEC of Laohutan reservoir and current TN and TP quantity that entered into the rivers, about 33.86 t x a(-1) of current TN quantity should be reduced in the DWSCA, while there was 2.23 t x a(-1) of residual WEC of TP in the rivers. The modeling method was also widely applicable for the continuous water bodies with different water quality targets, especially for the situation of higher water quality control target in downstream water body than that in upstream.

Sensitivity Analysis of Methane Hydrate Reservoirs: Effects of Reservoir Parameters on Gas Productivity and Economics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, B. J.; Gaddipati, M.; Nyayapathi, L.

2008-12-01

This paper presents a parametric study on production rates of natural gas from gas hydrates by the method of depressurization, using CMG STARS. Seven factors/parameters were considered as perturbations from a base-case hydrate reservoir description based on Problem 7 of the International Methane Hydrate Reservoir Simulator Code Comparison Study led by the Department of Energy and the USGS. This reservoir is modeled after the inferred properties of the hydrate deposit at the Prudhoe Bay L-106 site. The included sensitivity variables were hydrate saturation, pressure (depth), temperature, bottom-hole pressure of the production well, free water saturation, intrinsic rock permeability, and porosity. A two-level (L=2) Plackett-Burman experimental design was used to study the relative effects of these factors. The measured variable was the discounted cumulative gas production. The discount rate chosen was 15%, resulting in the gas contribution to the net present value of a reservoir. Eight different designs were developed for conducting sensitivity analysis and the effects of the parameters on the real and discounted production rates will be discussed. The breakeven price in various cases and the dependence of the breakeven price on the production parameters is given in the paper. As expected, initial reservoir temperature has the strongest positive effect on the productivity of a hydrate deposit and the bottom-hole pressure in the production well has the strongest negative dependence. Also resulting in a positive correlation is the intrinsic permeability and the initial free water of the formation. Negative effects were found for initial hydrate saturation (at saturations greater than 50% of the pore space) and the reservoir porosity. These negative effects are related to the available sensible heat of the reservoir, with decreasing productivity due to decreasing available sensible heat. Finally, we conclude that for the base case reservoir, the break-even price (BEP) for natural gas is approximately 7/mcf and for warmer and deeper reservoirs the BEP can approach 5.33/mcf.

Depletion of E. coli in permeable pavement mineral aggregate storage and reuse systems.

PubMed

Myers, B R; Beecham, S; van Leeuwen, J A; Keegan, A

2009-01-01

Permeable pavement reservoirs provide an important opportunity for the harvesting and storage of stormwater for reuse. This research aims to determine whether storage in dolomite, calcite and quartzite mineral aggregates in the base course of a permeable pavement impacts on the survival of the pathogen indicator organism Escherichia coli (E. coli) in storage. The reasons for depletion were also investigated. Twelve model permeable pavement storage reservoirs were filled, in triplicate, with dolomite, calcite and quartzite. Three reservoirs contained no aggregate. After filling with pathogen spiked rainwater, the concentration of E. coli was examined for 22 days in the reservoirs. The reservoirs were then agitated to determine if there was E. coli present which was not in aqueous suspension. The results of the experiments show that there is no significant difference in the depletion of E. coli found in reservoirs without aggregate, and those filled with dolomite or calcite. The rate of depletion was found to be significantly lower in the quartzite filled reservoirs. Agitation of the reservoirs yielded increases in the aqueous concentration of E. coli in all reservoir types, suggesting that the bacteria are adhering to the surface of the mineral aggregate and to the reservoir walls.

Source Term Modeling for Evaluating the Potential Impacts to Groundwater of Fluids Escaping from a Depleted Oil Reservoir Used for Carbon Sequestration

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cantrell, Kirk J.; Brown, Christopher F.

2014-06-13

In recent years depleted oil reservoirs have received special interest as carbon storage reservoirs because of their potential to offset costs through collaboration with enhanced oil recovery projects. Modeling is currently being conducted to evaluate potential risks to groundwater associated with leakage of fluids from depleted oil reservoirs used for storage of CO2. Modeling results reported here focused on understanding how toxic organic compounds found in oil will distribute between the various phases within a storage reservoir after introduction of CO2, understanding the migration potential of these compounds, and assessing potential groundwater impacts should leakage occur. Two model scenarios weremore » conducted to evaluate how organic components in oil will distribute among the phases of interest (oil, CO2, and brine). The first case consisted of 50 wt.% oil and 50 wt.% water; the second case was 90 wt.% CO2 and 10 wt.% oil. Several key organic compounds were selected for special attention in this study based upon their occurrence in oil at significant concentrations, relative toxicity, or because they can serve as surrogate compounds for other more highly toxic compounds for which required input data are not available. The organic contaminants of interest (COI) selected for this study were benzene, toluene, naphthalene, phenanthrene, and anthracene. Partitioning of organic compounds between crude oil and supercritical CO2 was modeled using the Peng-Robinson equation of state over temperature and pressure conditions that represent the entire subsurface system (from those relevant to deep geologic carbon storage environments to near surface conditions). Results indicate that for a typical set of oil reservoir conditions (75°C, and 21,520 kPa) negligible amounts of the COI dissolve into the aqueous phase. When CO2 is introduced into the reservoir such that the final composition of the reservoir is 90 wt.% CO2 and 10 wt.% oil, a significant fraction of the oil dissolves into the vapor phase. As the vapor phase moves up through the stratigraphic column, pressures and temperatures decrease, resulting in significant condensation of oil components. The heaviest organic components condense early in this process (at higher pressures and temperatures), while the lighter components tend to remain in the vapor phase until much lower pressures and temperatures are reached. Based on the model assumptions, the final concentrations of COI to reach an aquifer at 1,520 kPa and 25°C were quite significant for benzene and toluene, whereas the concentrations of polynuclear aromatic hydrocarbons that reach the aquifer were very small. This work demonstrates a methodology that can provide COI source term concentrations in CO2 leaking from a reservoir and entering an overlying aquifer for use in risk assessments.« less

Final Report to DOE EERE – Geothermal Technologies Program Project Title: Monitoring and modeling of fluid flow in a developing enhanced geothermal system (EGS) reservoir

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fehler, Michael

The primary objective of this project was to improve our ability to predict performance of an Enhanced Geothermal System (EGS) reservoir over time by relating, in a quantitative manner, microseismic imaging with fluid and temperature changes within the reservoir. Historically, microseismic data have been used qualitatively to place bounds on the growth of EGS reservoirs created by large hydraulic fracturing experiments. Previous investigators used an experimentally based fracture opening relationship (fracture aperture as a function of pressure), the spatial extent of microseismic events, and some assumptions about fracture frequency to determine the size of an EGS reservoir created during largemore » pumping tests. We addressed a number of issues (1) locating microearthquakes that occur during hydraulic fracturing, (2) obtaining more information about a reservoir than the microearthquake locations from the microearthquake data, for example, information about the seismic velocity structure of the reservoir or the scattering of seismic waves within the reservoir, (3) developing an improved methodology for estimating properties of fractures that intersect wellbores in a reservoir, and (4) developing a conceptual model for explaining the downward growth of observed seismicity that accompanies some hydraulic injections into geothermal reservoirs. We used two primary microseismic datasets for our work. The work was motivated by a dataset from the Salak Geothermal Field in Indonesia where seismicity accompanying a hydraulic injection was observed to migrate downward. We also used data from the Soultz EGS site in France. We also used Vertical Seismic Profiling data from a well in the United States. The work conducted is of benefit for characterizing reservoirs that are created by hydraulic fracturing for both EGS and for petroleum recovery.« less

EQUILGAS: Program to estimate temperatures and in situ two-phase conditions in geothermal reservoirs using three combined FT-HSH gas equilibria models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barragán, Rosa María; Núñez, José; Arellano, Víctor Manuel; Nieva, David

2016-03-01

Exploration and exploitation of geothermal resources require the estimation of important physical characteristics of reservoirs including temperatures, pressures and in situ two-phase conditions, in order to evaluate possible uses and/or investigate changes due to exploitation. As at relatively high temperatures (>150 °C) reservoir fluids usually attain chemical equilibrium in contact with hot rocks, different models based on the chemistry of fluids have been developed that allow deep conditions to be estimated. Currently either in water-dominated or steam-dominated reservoirs the chemistry of steam has been useful for working out reservoir conditions. In this context, three methods based on the Fischer-Tropsch (FT) and combined H2S-H2 (HSH) mineral-gas reactions have been developed for estimating temperatures and the quality of the in situ two-phase mixture prevailing in the reservoir. For these methods the mineral buffers considered to be controlling H2S-H2 composition of fluids are as follows. The pyrite-magnetite buffer (FT-HSH1); the pyrite-hematite buffer (FT-HSH2) and the pyrite-pyrrhotite buffer (FT-HSH3). Currently from such models the estimations of both, temperature and steam fraction in the two-phase fluid are obtained graphically by using a blank diagram with a background theoretical solution as reference. Thus large errors are involved since the isotherms are highly nonlinear functions while reservoir steam fractions are taken from a logarithmic scale. In order to facilitate the use of the three FT-HSH methods and minimize visual interpolation errors, the EQUILGAS program that numerically solves the equations of the FT-HSH methods was developed. In this work the FT-HSH methods and the EQUILGAS program are described. Illustrative examples for Mexican fields are also given in order to help the users in deciding which method could be more suitable for every specific data set.

Representing Reservoir Stratification in Land Surface and Earth System Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yigzaw, W.; Li, H. Y.; Leung, L. R.; Hejazi, M. I.; Voisin, N.; Payn, R. A.; Demissie, Y.

2017-12-01

A one-dimensional reservoir stratification modeling has been developed as part of Model for Scale Adaptive River Transport (MOSART), which is the river transport model used in the Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME) and Community Earth System Model (CESM). Reservoirs play an important role in modulating the dynamic water, energy and biogeochemical cycles in the riverine system through nutrient sequestration and stratification. However, most earth system models include lake models that assume a simplified geometry featuring a constant depth and a constant surface area. As reservoir geometry has important effects on thermal stratification, we developed a new algorithm for deriving generic, stratified area-elevation-storage relationships that are applicable at regional and global scales using data from Global Reservoir and Dam database (GRanD). This new reservoir geometry dataset is then used to support the development of a reservoir stratification module within MOSART. The mixing of layers (energy and mass) in the reservoir is driven by eddy diffusion, vertical advection, and reservoir inflow and outflow. Upstream inflow into a reservoir is treated as an additional source/sink of energy, while downstream outflow represented a sink. Hourly atmospheric forcing from North American Land Assimilation System (NLDAS) Phase II and simulated daily runoff by ACME land component are used as inputs for the model over the contiguous United States for simulations between 2001-2010. The model is validated using selected observed temperature profile data in a number of reservoirs that are subject to various levels of regulation. The reservoir stratification module completes the representation of riverine mass and heat transfer in earth system models, which is a major step towards quantitative understanding of human influences on the terrestrial hydrological, ecological and biogeochemical cycles.

Potential implementation of reservoir computing models based on magnetic skyrmions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bourianoff, George; Pinna, Daniele; Sitte, Matthias; Everschor-Sitte, Karin

2018-05-01

Reservoir Computing is a type of recursive neural network commonly used for recognizing and predicting spatio-temporal events relying on a complex hierarchy of nested feedback loops to generate a memory functionality. The Reservoir Computing paradigm does not require any knowledge of the reservoir topology or node weights for training purposes and can therefore utilize naturally existing networks formed by a wide variety of physical processes. Most efforts to implement reservoir computing prior to this have focused on utilizing memristor techniques to implement recursive neural networks. This paper examines the potential of magnetic skyrmion fabrics and the complex current patterns which form in them as an attractive physical instantiation for Reservoir Computing. We argue that their nonlinear dynamical interplay resulting from anisotropic magnetoresistance and spin-torque effects allows for an effective and energy efficient nonlinear processing of spatial temporal events with the aim of event recognition and prediction.

Static reservoir modeling of the Bahariya reservoirs for the oilfields development in South Umbarka area, Western Desert, Egypt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdel-Fattah, Mohamed I.; Metwalli, Farouk I.; Mesilhi, El Sayed I.

2018-02-01

3D static reservoir modeling of the Bahariya reservoirs using seismic and wells data can be a relevant part of an overall strategy for the oilfields development in South Umbarka area (Western Desert, Egypt). The seismic data is used to build the 3D grid, including fault sticks for the fault modeling, and horizon interpretations and surfaces for horizon modeling. The 3D grid is the digital representation of the structural geology of Bahariya Formation. When we got a reasonably accurate representation, we fill the 3D grid with facies and petrophysical properties to simulate it, to gain a more precise understanding of the reservoir properties behavior. Sequential Indicator Simulation (SIS) and Sequential Gaussian Simulation (SGS) techniques are the stochastic algorithms used to spatially distribute discrete reservoir properties (facies) and continuous reservoir properties (shale volume, porosity, and water saturation) respectively within the created 3D grid throughout property modeling. The structural model of Bahariya Formation exhibits the trapping mechanism which is a fault assisted anticlinal closure trending NW-SE. This major fault breaks the reservoirs into two major fault blocks (North Block and South Block). Petrophysical models classified Lower Bahariya reservoir as a moderate to good reservoir rather than Upper Bahariya reservoir in terms of facies, with good porosity and permeability, low water saturation, and moderate net to gross. The Original Oil In Place (OOIP) values of modeled Bahariya reservoirs show hydrocarbon accumulation in economic quantity, considering the high structural dips at the central part of South Umbarka area. The powerful of 3D static modeling technique has provided a considerable insight into the future prediction of Bahariya reservoirs performance and production behavior.

Real-time short-term forecast of water inflow into Bureyskaya reservoir

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Motovilov, Yury

2017-04-01

During several recent years, a methodology for operational optimization in hydrosystems including forecasts of the hydrological situation has been developed on example of Burea reservoir. The forecasts accuracy improvement of the water inflow into the reservoir during planning of water and energy regime was one of the main goals for implemented research. Burea river is the second left largest Amur tributary after Zeya river with its 70.7 thousand square kilometers watershed and 723 km-long river course. A variety of natural conditions - from plains in the southern part to northern mountainous areas determine a significant spatio-temporal variability in runoff generation patterns and river regime. Bureyskaya hydropower plant (HPP) with watershed area 65.2 thousand square kilometers is a key station in the Russian Far Eastern energy system providing its reliable operation. With a spacious reservoir, Bureyskaya HPP makes a significant contribution to the protection of the Amur region from catastrophic floods. A physically-based distributed model of runoff generation based on the ECOMAG (ECOlogical Model for Applied Geophysics) hydrological modeling platform has been developed for the Burea River basin. The model describes processes of interception of rainfall/snowfall by the canopy, snow accumulation and melt, soil freezing and thawing, water infiltration into unfrozen and frozen soil, evapotranspiration, thermal and water regime of soil, overland, subsurface, ground and river flow. The governing model's equations are derived from integration of the basic hydro- and thermodynamics equations of water and heat vertical transfer in snowpack, frozen/unfrozen soil, horizontal water flow under and over catchment slopes, etc. The model setup for Bureya river basin included watershed and river network schematization with GIS module by DEM analysis, meteorological time-series preparation, model calibration and validation against historical observations. The results showed good model performance as compared to observed inflow data into the Bureya reservoir and high diagnostic potential of data-modeling system of the runoff formation. With the use of this system the following flowchart for short-range forecasting inflow into Bureyskoe reservoir and forecast correction technique using continuously updated hydrometeorological data has been developed: 1 - Daily renewal of weather observations and forecasts database via the Internet; 2 - Daily runoff calculation from the beginning of the current year to current date is conducted; 3 - Short-range (up to 7 days) forecast is generated based on weather forecast. The idea underlying the model assimilation of newly obtained hydro meteorological information to adjust short-range hydrological forecasts lies in the assumption of the forecast errors inertia. Then the difference between calculated and observed streamflow at the forecast release date is "scattered" with specific weights to calculated streamflow for the forecast lead time. During 2016 this forecasts method of the inflow into the Bureyskaya reservoir up to 7 days is tested in online mode. Satisfactory evaluated short-range inflow forecast success rate is obtained. Tests of developed method have shown strong sensitivity to the results of short-term precipitation forecasts.

Climate Change Assessment of Precipitation in Tandula Reservoir System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaiswal, Rahul Kumar; Tiwari, H. L.; Lohani, A. K.

2018-02-01

The precipitation is the principle input of hydrological cycle affect availability of water in spatial and temporal scale of basin due to widely accepted climate change. The present study deals with the statistical downscaling using Statistical Down Scaling Model for rainfall of five rain gauge stations (Ambagarh, Bhanpura, Balod, Chamra and Gondli) in Tandula, Kharkhara and Gondli reservoirs of Chhattisgarh state of India to forecast future rainfall in three different periods under SRES A1B and A2 climatic forcing conditions. In the analysis, twenty-six climatic variables obtained from National Centers for Environmental Prediction were used and statistically tested for selection of best-fit predictors. The conditional process based statistical correlation was used to evolve multiple linear relations in calibration for period of 1981-1995 was tested with independent data of 1996-2003 for validation. The developed relations were further used to predict future rainfall scenarios for three different periods 2020-2035 (FP-1), 2046-2064 (FP-2) and 2081-2100 (FP-3) and compared with monthly rainfalls during base period (1981-2003) for individual station and all three reservoir catchments. From the analysis, it has been found that most of the rain gauge stations and all three reservoir catchments may receive significant less rainfall in future. The Thiessen polygon based annual and seasonal rainfall for different catchments confirmed a reduction of seasonal rainfall from 5.1 to 14.1% in Tandula reservoir, 11-19.2% in Kharkhara reservoir and 15.1-23.8% in Gondli reservoir. The Gondli reservoir may be affected the most in term of water availability in future prediction periods.

In the Way of Peacemaker Guide Curve between Water Supply and Flood Control for Short Term Reservoir Operation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uysal, G.; Sensoy, A.; Yavuz, O.; Sorman, A. A.; Gezgin, T.

2012-04-01

Effective management of a controlled reservoir system where it involves multiple and sometimes conflicting objectives is a complex problem especially in real time operations. Yuvacık Dam Reservoir, located in the Marmara region of Turkey, is built to supply annual demand of 142 hm3 water for Kocaeli city requires such a complex management strategy since it has relatively small (51 hm3) effective capacity. On the other hand, the drainage basin is fed by both rainfall and snowmelt since the elevation ranges between 80 - 1548 m. Excessive water must be stored behind the radial gates between February and May in terms of sustainability especially for summer and autumn periods. Moreover, the downstream channel physical conditions constraint the spillway releases up to 100 m3/s although the spillway is large enough to handle major floods. Thus, this situation makes short term release decisions the challenging task. Long term water supply curves, based on historical inflows and annual water demand, are in conflict with flood regulation (control) levels, based on flood attenuation and routing curves, for this reservoir. A guide curve, that is generated using both water supply and flood control of downstream channel, generally corresponds to upper elevation of conservation pool for simulation of a reservoir. However, sometimes current operation necessitates exceeding this target elevation. Since guide curves can be developed as a function of external variables, the water potential of a basin can be an indicator to explain current conditions and decide on the further strategies. Besides, releases with respect to guide curve are managed and restricted by user-defined rules. Although the managers operate the reservoir due to several variable conditions and predictions, still the simulation model using variable guide curve is an urgent need to test alternatives quickly. To that end, using HEC-ResSim, the several variable guide curves are defined to meet the requirements by taking inflow, elevation, precipitation and snow water equivalent into consideration to propose alternative simulations as a decision support system. After that, the releases are subjected to user-defined rules. Thus, previous year reservoir simulations are compared with observed reservoir levels and releases. Hypothetical flood scenarios are tested in case of different storm event timing and sizing. Numerical weather prediction data of Mesoscale Model 5 (MM5) can be used for temperature and precipitation forecasts that will form the inputs for a hydrological model. The estimated flows can be used for real time short term decisions for reservoir simulation based on variable guide curve and user defined rules.

210Pb and 137Cs as tracers of recent sedimentary processes in two water reservoirs in Cuba.

PubMed

Díaz-Asencio, Misael; Corcho-Alvarado, José Antonio; Cartas-Aguila, Héctor; Pulido-Caraballé, Anabell; Betancourt, Carmen; Smoak, Joseph M; Alvarez-Padilla, Elizabeth; Labaut-Betancourt, Yeny; Alonso-Hernández, Carlos; Seisdedo-Losa, Mabel

2017-10-01

Hanabanilla and Paso Bonito Reservoirs are the main fresh water sources for about half a million inhabitants in central Cuba. Prior to this investigation precise information about the losses of storage capacity was not available. Sedimentation is the dominant process leading to reduction in water storage capacity. We investigated the sedimentation process in both reservoirs by analyzing environmental radionuclides (e.g. 210 Pb, 226 Ra and 137 Cs) in sediment cores. In the shallow Paso Bonito Reservoir (mean depth of 6.5 m; water volume of 8 × 10 6  m 3 ), we estimated a mean mass accumulation rate (MAR) of 0.4 ± 0.1 g cm -2 y -1 based on 210 Pb chronologies. 137 Cs was detected in the sediments, but due to the recent construction of this reservoir (1975), it was not possible to use it to validate the 210 Pb chronologies. The estimated MAR in this reservoir is higher than the typical values reported in similar shallow fresh water reservoirs worldwide. Our results highlight a significant loss of water storage capacity during the past 30 years. In the deeper and larger Hanabanilla Reservoir (mean depth of 15.5 m; water volume of 292 × 10 6  m 3 ), the MAR was investigated in three different sites of the reservoir. The mean MARs based on the 210 Pb chronologies varied between 0.15 and 0.24 g cm -2 y -1 . The MARs calculated based on the 137 Cs profiles further validated these values. We show that the sediment accumulation did not change significantly over the last 50 years. A simple empirical mixing and sedimentation model that assumes 137 Cs in the water originated from both, direct atmospheric fallout and the catchment area, was applied to interpret the 137 Cs depth profiles. The model consistently reproduced the measured 137 Cs profiles in the three cores (R 2  > 0.9). Mean residence times for 137 Cs in the water and in the catchment area of 1 y and 35-50 y, respectively were estimated. The model identified areas where the catchment component was higher, zones with higher erosion in the catchment, and sites where the fallout component was quantitatively recorded in the sediments. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Land use structures fish assemblages in reservoirs of the Tennessee River

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miranda, Leandro E.; Bies, J. M.; Hann, D. A.

2015-01-01

Inputs of nutrients, sediments and detritus from catchments can promote selected components of reservoir fish assemblages, while hindering others. However, investigations linking these catchment subsidies to fish assemblages have generally focussed on one or a handful of species. Considering this paucity of community-level awareness, we sought to explore the association between land use and fish assemblage composition in reservoirs. To this end, we compared fish assemblages in reservoirs of two sub-basins of the Tennessee River representing differing intensities of agricultural development, and hypothesised that fish assemblage structure indicated by species percentage composition would differ among reservoirs in the two sub-basins. Using multivariate statistical analysis, we documented inter-basin differences in land use, reservoir productivity and fish assemblages, but no differences in reservoir morphometry or water regime. Basins were separated along a gradient of forested and non-forested catchment land cover, which was directly related to total nitrogen, total phosphorous and chlorophyll-a concentrations. Considering the extensive body of knowledge linking land use to aquatic systems, it is reasonable to postulate a hierarchical model in which productivity has direct links to terrestrial inputs, and fish assemblages have direct links to both land use and productivity. We observed a shift from an invertivore-based fish assemblage in forested catchments to a detritivore-based fish assemblage in agricultural catchments that may be a widespread pattern among reservoirs and other aquatic ecosystems.

Simulating reservoir leakage in ground-water models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fenske, J.P.; Leake, S.A.; Prudic, David E.

1997-01-01

Leakage to ground water resulting from the expansion and contraction of reservoirs cannot be easily simulated by most ground-water flow models. An algorithm, entitled the Reservoir Package, was developed for the United States Geological Survey (USGS) three-dimensional finite-difference modular ground-water flow model MODFLOW. The Reservoir Package automates the process of specifying head-dependent boundary cells, eliminating the need to divide a simulation into many stress periods while improving accuracy in simulating changes in ground-water levels resulting from transient reservoir stage. Leakage between the reservoir and the underlying aquifer is simulated for each model cell corrresponding to the inundated area by multiplying the head difference between the reservoir and the aquifer with the hydraulic conductance of the reservoir-bed sediments.

Amplitude various angles (AVA) phenomena in thin layer reservoir: Case study of various reservoirs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nurhandoko, Bagus Endar B., E-mail: bagusnur@bdg.centrin.net.id, E-mail: bagusnur@rock-fluid.com; Rock Fluid Imaging Lab., Bandung; Susilowati, E-mail: bagusnur@bdg.centrin.net.id, E-mail: bagusnur@rock-fluid.com

2015-04-16

Amplitude various offset is widely used in petroleum exploration as well as in petroleum development field. Generally, phenomenon of amplitude in various angles assumes reservoir’s layer is quite thick. It also means that the wave is assumed as a very high frequency. But, in natural condition, the seismic wave is band limited and has quite low frequency. Therefore, topic about amplitude various angles in thin layer reservoir as well as low frequency assumption is important to be considered. Thin layer reservoir means the thickness of reservoir is about or less than quarter of wavelength. In this paper, I studied aboutmore » the reflection phenomena in elastic wave which considering interference from thin layer reservoir and transmission wave. I applied Zoeppritz equation for modeling reflected wave of top reservoir, reflected wave of bottom reservoir, and also transmission elastic wave of reservoir. Results show that the phenomena of AVA in thin layer reservoir are frequency dependent. Thin layer reservoir causes interference between reflected wave of top reservoir and reflected wave of bottom reservoir. These phenomena are frequently neglected, however, in real practices. Even though, the impact of inattention in interference phenomena caused by thin layer in AVA may cause inaccurate reservoir characterization. The relation between classes of AVA reservoir and reservoir’s character are different when effect of ones in thin reservoir and ones in thick reservoir are compared. In this paper, I present some AVA phenomena including its cross plot in various thin reservoir types based on some rock physics data of Indonesia.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Hong -Yi; Leung, L. Ruby; Tesfa, Teklu

A new large-scale stream temperature model has been developed within the Community Earth System Model (CESM) framework. The model is coupled with the Model for Scale Adaptive River Transport (MOSART) that represents river routing and a water management model (WM) that represents the effects of reservoir operations and water withdrawals on flow regulation. The coupled models allow the impacts of reservoir operations and withdrawals on stream temperature to be explicitly represented in a physically based and consistent way. The models have been applied to the Contiguous United States driven by observed meteorological forcing. It is shown that the model ismore » capable of reproducing stream temperature spatiotemporal variation satisfactorily by comparison against the observed streamflow from over 320 USGS stations. Including water management in the models improves the agreement between the simulated and observed streamflow at a large number of stream gauge stations. Both climate and water management are found to have important influence on the spatiotemporal patterns of stream temperature. More interestingly, it is quantitatively estimated that reservoir operation could cool down stream temperature in the summer low-flow season (August – October) by as much as 1~2oC over many places, as water management generally mitigates low flow, which has important implications to aquatic ecosystems. In conclusion, sensitivity of the simulated stream temperature to input data and reservoir operation rules used in the WM model motivates future directions to address some limitations in the current modeling framework.« less

Use of a geomorphological transfer function to model design floods in small hillside catchments in semiarid Tunisia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nasri, S.; Cudennec, C.; Albergel, J.; Berndtsson, R.

2004-02-01

In the beginning of the 1990s, the Tunisian Ministry of Agriculture launched an ambitious program for constructing small hillside reservoirs in the northern and central region of the country. At present, more than 720 reservoirs have been created. They consist of small compacted earth dams supplied with a horizontal overflow weir. Due to lack of hydrological data and the area's extreme floods, however, it is very difficult to design the overflow weirs. Also, catchments are very sensitive to erosion and the reservoirs are rapidly silted up. Consequently, prediction of flood volumes for important rainfall events becomes crucial. Few hydrological observations, however, exist for the catchment areas. For this purpose a geomorphological model methodology is presented to predict shape and volume of hydrographs for important floods. This model is built around a production function that defines the net storm rainfall (portion of rainfall during a storm which reaches a stream channel as direct runoff) from the total rainfall (observed rainfall in the catchment) and a transfer function based on the most complete possible definition of the surface drainage system. Observed rainfall during 5-min time steps was used in the model. The model runoff generation is based on surface drainage characteristics which can be easily extracted from maps. The model was applied to two representative experimental catchments in central Tunisia. The conceptual rainfall-runoff model based on surface topography and drainage network was seen to reproduce observed runoff satisfactory. The calibrated model was used to estimate runoff from 5, 10, 20, and 50 year rainfall return periods regarding runoff volume, maximum runoff, as well as the general shape of the runoff hydrograph. Practical conclusions to design hill reservoirs and to extrapolate results using this model methodology for ungauged small catchments in semiarid Tunisia are made.

Caprock Integrity during Hydrocarbon Production and CO2 Injection in the Goldeneye Reservoir

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salimzadeh, Saeed; Paluszny, Adriana; Zimmerman, Robert

2016-04-01

Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) is a key technology for addressing climate change and maintaining security of energy supplies, while potentially offering important economic benefits. UK offshore, depleted hydrocarbon reservoirs have the potential capacity to store significant quantities of carbon dioxide, produced during power generation from fossil fuels. The Goldeneye depleted gas condensate field, located offshore in the UK North Sea at a depth of ~ 2600 m, is a candidate for the storage of at least 10 million tons of CO2. In this research, a fully coupled, full-scale model (50×20×8 km), based on the Goldeneye reservoir, is built and used for hydro-carbon production and CO2 injection simulations. The model accounts for fluid flow, heat transfer, and deformation of the fractured reservoir. Flow through fractures is defined as two-dimensional laminar flow within the three-dimensional poroelastic medium. The local thermal non-equilibrium between injected CO2 and host reservoir has been considered with convective (conduction and advection) heat transfer. The numerical model has been developed using standard finite element method with Galerkin spatial discretisation, and finite difference temporal discretisation. The geomechanical model has been implemented into the object-oriented Imperial College Geomechanics Toolkit, in close interaction with the Complex Systems Modelling Platform (CSMP), and validated with several benchmark examples. Fifteen major faults are mapped from the Goldeneye field into the model. Modal stress intensity factors, for the three modes of fracture opening during hydrocarbon production and CO2 injection phases, are computed at the tips of the faults by computing the I-Integral over a virtual disk. Contact stresses -normal and shear- on the fault surfaces are iteratively computed using a gap-based augmented Lagrangian-Uzawa method. Results show fault activation during the production phase that may affect the fault's hydraulic conductivity and its connection to the reservoir rocks. The direction of growth is downward during production and it is expected to be upward during injection. Elevated fluid pressures inside faults during CO2 injection may further facilitate fault activation by reducing normal effective stresses. Activated faults can act as permeable conduits and potentially jeopardise caprock integrity for CO2 storage purposes.

Niobrara Discrete Fracture Network: From Outcrop Surveys to Subsurface Reservoir Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grechishnikova, Alena

Heterogeneity of an unconventional reservoir is one of the main factors affecting production. Well performance depends on the size and efficiency of the interconnected fracture "plumbing system", as influenced by multistage hydraulic fracturing. A complex, interconnected natural fracture network can significantly increase the size of stimulated reservoir volume, provide additional surface area contact and enhance permeability. In 2013 the Reservoir Characterization Project (RCP) at the Colorado School of Mines began Phase XV to study Niobrara shale reservoir management. Anadarko Petroleum Corporation and RCP jointly acquired time-lapse multicomponent seismic data in Wattenberg Field, Denver Basin. Anadarko also provided RCP with a regional 3D seismic survey and a rich well dataset. The purpose of this study is to characterize the natural fracture patterns occurring in the unconventional Niobrara reservoir and to determine the drivers that influenced fracture trends and distributions. The findings are integrated into a reservoir model though DFN (Discrete Fracture Network) for further prediction of reservoir performance using reservoir simulations. Aiming to better understand the complexity of the natural fracture system I began my fracture analysis work at an active mine site that provides a Niobrara exposure. Access to a "fresh" outcrop surface created a perfect natural laboratory. Ground-based LIDAR and photogrammetry facilitated construction of a geological model and a DFN model for the mine site. The work was carried into subsurface where the information gained served to improve reservoir characterization at a sub-seismic scale and can be used in well planning. I then embarked on a challenging yet essential task of outcrop-to-subsurface data calibration and application to RCP's Wattenberg Field study site. In this research the surface data was proven to be valid for comparative use in the subsurface. The subsurface fracture information was derived from image logs run within the horizontal wellbores and augmented with microseismic data. Limitations of these datasets included the potential to induce biased interpretations; but the data collected during the outcrop study aided in removing the bias. All four fracture sets observed at the quarry were also interpreted in the subsurface; however there was a limitation on statistical validity for one of the four sets due to a low frequency of observed occurrence potentially caused by wellbore orientation. Microseismic data was used for identification of one of the reactivated natural fracture sets. An interesting phenomenon observed in the microseismic data trends was the low frequency of event occurrence within dense populations of open natural fracture swarms suggesting that zones of higher natural fracture intensities are capable of absorbing and transmitting energy resulting in lower levels of microseismicity. Thus currently open natural fractures could be challenging to detect using microseismic. Through this study I identified a significant variability in fracture intensity at a localized scale due to lithological composition and structural features. The complex faulting styles observed at the outcrop were utilized as an analog and verified by horizontal well log data and seismic volume interpretations creating a high resolution structural model for the subsurface. A lithofacies model was developed based on the well log, core, and seismic inversion analysis. These models combined served to accurately distribute fracture intensity information within the geological model for further use in DFN. As a product of this study, a workflow was developed to aid in fracture network model creation allowing for more intelligent decisions to be made during well planning and completion optimization aiming to improve recovery. A high resolution integrated discrete fracture network model serves to advance dynamic reservoir characterization in the subsurface at a sub-seismic scale resulting in improved reservoir characterization.

A fingerprinting mixing model approach to generate uniformly representative solutions for distributed contributions of sediment sources in a Pyrenean drainage basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palazón, Leticia; Gaspar, Leticia; Latorre, Borja; Blake, Will; Navas, Ana

2014-05-01

Spanish Pyrenean reservoirs are under pressure from high sediment yields in contributing catchments. Sediment fingerprinting approaches offer potential to quantify the contribution of different sediment sources, evaluate catchment erosion dynamics and develop management plans to tackle the reservoir siltation problems. The drainage basin of the Barasona reservoir (1509 km2), located in the Central Spanish Pyrenees, is an alpine-prealpine agroforest basin supplying sediments to the reservoir at an annual rate of around 350 t km-2 with implications for reservoir longevity. The climate is mountain type, wet and cold, with both Atlantic and Mediterranean influences. Steep slopes and the presence of deep and narrow gorges favour rapid runoff and large floods. The ability of geochemical fingerprint properties to discriminate between the sediment sources was investigated by conducting the nonparametric Kruskal-Wallis H-test and a stepwise discriminant function analysis (minimization of Wilk's lambda). This standard procedure selects potential fingerprinting properties as optimum composite fingerprint to characterize and discriminate between sediment sources to the reservoir. Then the contribution of each potential sediment source was assessed by applying a Monte Carlo mixing model to obtain source proportions for the Barasona reservoir sediment samples. The Monte Carlo mixing model was written in C programming language and designed to deliver a user-defined number possible solutions. A Combinatorial Principals method was used to identify the most probable solution with associated uncertainty based on source variability. The unique solution for each sample was characterized by the mean value and the standard deviation of the generated solutions and the lower goodness of fit value applied. This method is argued to guarantee a similar set of representative solutions in all unmixing cases based on likelihood of occurrence. Soil samples for the different potential sediment sources of the drainage basin were compared with samples from the reservoir using a range of different fingerprinting properties (i.e. mass activities of environmental radionuclides, elemental composition and magnetic susceptibility) analyzed in the < 63 μm sediment fraction. In this case, the 100 best results from 106 generated iterations were selected obtaining a goodness of fit higher than 0.76. The preliminary results using this new data processing methodology for samples collected in the reservoir allowed us to identify cultivated fields and badlands as main potential sources of sediments to the reservoir. These findings support the appropriate use of the fingerprinting methodology in a Spanish Pyrenees basin, which will enable us to better understand the basin sediment production of the Barasona reservoir.

Daily reservoir sedimentation model: Case study from the Fena Valley Reservoir, Guam

USGS Publications Warehouse

Marineau, Mathieu D.; Wright, Scott A.

2017-01-01

A model to compute reservoir sedimentation rates at daily timescales is presented. The model uses streamflow and sediment load data from nearby stream gauges to obtain an initial estimate of sediment yield for the reservoir’s watershed; it is then calibrated to the total deposition calculated from repeat bathymetric surveys. Long-term changes to reservoir trapping efficiency are also taken into account. The model was applied to the Fena Valley Reservoir, a water supply reservoir on the island of Guam. This reservoir became operational in 1951 and was recently surveyed in 2014. The model results show that the highest rate of deposition occurred during two typhoons (Typhoon Alice in 1953 and Typhoon Tingting in 2004); each storm decreased reservoir capacity by approximately 2–3% in only a few days. The presented model can be used to evaluate the impact of an extreme event, or it can be coupled with a watershed runoff model to evaluate potential impacts to storage capacity as a result of climate change or other hydrologic modifications.

Joint inversion of marine seismic AVA and CSEM data using statistical rock-physics models and Markov random fields: Stochastic inversion of AVA and CSEM data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, J.; Hoversten, G.M.

2011-09-15

Joint inversion of seismic AVA and CSEM data requires rock-physics relationships to link seismic attributes to electrical properties. Ideally, we can connect them through reservoir parameters (e.g., porosity and water saturation) by developing physical-based models, such as Gassmann’s equations and Archie’s law, using nearby borehole logs. This could be difficult in the exploration stage because information available is typically insufficient for choosing suitable rock-physics models and for subsequently obtaining reliable estimates of the associated parameters. The use of improper rock-physics models and the inaccuracy of the estimates of model parameters may cause misleading inversion results. Conversely, it is easy tomore » derive statistical relationships among seismic and electrical attributes and reservoir parameters from distant borehole logs. In this study, we develop a Bayesian model to jointly invert seismic AVA and CSEM data for reservoir parameter estimation using statistical rock-physics models; the spatial dependence of geophysical and reservoir parameters are carried out by lithotypes through Markov random fields. We apply the developed model to a synthetic case, which simulates a CO{sub 2} monitoring application. We derive statistical rock-physics relations from borehole logs at one location and estimate seismic P- and S-wave velocity ratio, acoustic impedance, density, electrical resistivity, lithotypes, porosity, and water saturation at three different locations by conditioning to seismic AVA and CSEM data. Comparison of the inversion results with their corresponding true values shows that the correlation-based statistical rock-physics models provide significant information for improving the joint inversion results.« less

Reservoir optimisation using El Niño information. Case study of Daule Peripa (Ecuador)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gelati, Emiliano; Madsen, Henrik; Rosbjerg, Dan

2010-05-01

The optimisation of water resources systems requires the ability to produce runoff scenarios that are consistent with available climatic information. We approach stochastic runoff modelling with a Markov-modulated autoregressive model with exogenous input, which belongs to the class of Markov-switching models. The model assumes runoff parameterisation to be conditioned on a hidden climatic state following a Markov chain, whose state transition probabilities depend on climatic information. This approach allows stochastic modeling of non-stationary runoff, as runoff anomalies are described by a mixture of autoregressive models with exogenous input, each one corresponding to a climate state. We calibrate the model on the inflows of the Daule Peripa reservoir located in western Ecuador, where the occurrence of El Niño leads to anomalously heavy rainfall caused by positive sea surface temperature anomalies along the coast. El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) information is used to condition the runoff parameterisation. Inflow predictions are realistic, especially at the occurrence of El Niño events. The Daule Peripa reservoir serves a hydropower plant and a downstream water supply facility. Using historical ENSO records, synthetic monthly inflow scenarios are generated for the period 1950-2007. These scenarios are used as input to perform stochastic optimisation of the reservoir rule curves with a multi-objective Genetic Algorithm (MOGA). The optimised rule curves are assumed to be the reservoir base policy. ENSO standard indices are currently forecasted at monthly time scale with nine-month lead time. These forecasts are used to perform stochastic optimisation of reservoir releases at each monthly time step according to the following procedure: (i) nine-month inflow forecast scenarios are generated using ENSO forecasts; (ii) a MOGA is set up to optimise the upcoming nine monthly releases; (iii) the optimisation is carried out by simulating the releases on the inflow forecasts, and by applying the base policy on a subsequent synthetic inflow scenario in order to account for long-term costs; (iv) the optimised release for the first month is implemented; (v) the state of the system is updated and (i), (ii), (iii), and (iv) are iterated for the following time step. The results highlight the advantages of using a climate-driven stochastic model to produce inflow scenarios and forecasts for reservoir optimisation, showing potential improvements with respect to the current management. Dynamic programming was used to find the best possible release time series given the inflow observations, in order to benchmark any possible operational improvement.

Experimental analysis of green roof substrate detention characteristics.

PubMed

Yio, Marcus H N; Stovin, Virginia; Werdin, Jörg; Vesuviano, Gianni

2013-01-01

Green roofs may make an important contribution to urban stormwater management. Rainfall-runoff models are required to evaluate green roof responses to specific rainfall inputs. The roof's hydrological response is a function of its configuration, with the substrate - or growing media - providing both retention and detention of rainfall. The objective of the research described here is to quantify the detention effects due to green roof substrates, and to propose a suitable hydrological modelling approach. Laboratory results from experimental detention tests on green roof substrates are presented. It is shown that detention increases with substrate depth and as a result of increasing substrate organic content. Model structures based on reservoir routing are evaluated, and it is found that a one-parameter reservoir routing model coupled with a parameter that describes the delay to start of runoff best fits the observed data. Preliminary findings support the hypothesis that the reservoir routing parameter values can be defined from the substrate's physical characteristics.

Optimization of Geothermal Well Placement under Geological Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schulte, Daniel O.; Arnold, Dan; Demyanov, Vasily; Sass, Ingo; Geiger, Sebastian

2017-04-01

Well placement optimization is critical to commercial success of geothermal projects. However, uncertainties of geological parameters prohibit optimization based on a single scenario of the subsurface, particularly when few expensive wells are to be drilled. The optimization of borehole locations is usually based on numerical reservoir models to predict reservoir performance and entails the choice of objectives to optimize (total enthalpy, minimum enthalpy rate, production temperature) and the development options to adjust (well location, pump rate, difference in production and injection temperature). Optimization traditionally requires trying different development options on a single geological realization yet there are many possible different interpretations possible. Therefore, we aim to optimize across a range of representative geological models to account for geological uncertainty in geothermal optimization. We present an approach that uses a response surface methodology based on a large number of geological realizations selected by experimental design to optimize the placement of geothermal wells in a realistic field example. A large number of geological scenarios and design options were simulated and the response surfaces were constructed using polynomial proxy models, which consider both geological uncertainties and design parameters. The polynomial proxies were validated against additional simulation runs and shown to provide an adequate representation of the model response for the cases tested. The resulting proxy models allow for the identification of the optimal borehole locations given the mean response of the geological scenarios from the proxy (i.e. maximizing or minimizing the mean response). The approach is demonstrated on the realistic Watt field example by optimizing the borehole locations to maximize the mean heat extraction from the reservoir under geological uncertainty. The training simulations are based on a comprehensive semi-synthetic data set of a hierarchical benchmark case study for a hydrocarbon reservoir, which specifically considers the interpretational uncertainty in the modeling work flow. The optimal choice of boreholes prolongs the time to cold water breakthrough and allows for higher pump rates and increased water production temperatures.

Development of a model-based flood emergency management system in Yujiang River Basin, South China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeng, Yong; Cai, Yanpeng; Jia, Peng; Mao, Jiansu

2014-06-01

Flooding is the most frequent disaster in China. It affects people's lives and properties, causing considerable economic loss. Flood forecast and operation of reservoirs are important in flood emergency management. Although great progress has been achieved in flood forecast and reservoir operation through using computer, network technology, and geographic information system technology in China, the prediction accuracy of models are not satisfactory due to the unavailability of real-time monitoring data. Also, real-time flood control scenario analysis is not effective in many regions and can seldom provide online decision support function. In this research, a decision support system for real-time flood forecasting in Yujiang River Basin, South China (DSS-YRB) is introduced in this paper. This system is based on hydrological and hydraulic mathematical models. The conceptual framework and detailed components of the proposed DSS-YRB is illustrated, which employs real-time rainfall data conversion, model-driven hydrologic forecasting, model calibration, data assimilation methods, and reservoir operational scenario analysis. Multi-tiered architecture offers great flexibility, portability, reusability, and reliability. The applied case study results show the development and application of a decision support system for real-time flood forecasting and operation is beneficial for flood control.

Modelling the impacts of altered management practices, land use and climate changes on the water quality of the Millbrook catchment-reservoir system in South Australia.

PubMed

Nguyen, Hong Hanh; Recknagel, Friedrich; Meyer, Wayne; Frizenschaf, Jacqueline; Shrestha, Manoj Kumar

2017-11-01

Sustainable management of drinking water reservoirs requires taking into account the potential effects of their catchments' development. This study is an attempt to estimate the daily patterns of nutrients transport in the catchment - reservoir systems through the application of the ensemble of complementary models SWAT-SALMO. SWAT quantifies flow, nitrate and phosphate loadings originating in catchments before entering downstream reservoirs meanwhile SALMO determines phosphate, nitrate, and chlorophyll-a concentrations within the reservoirs. The study applies to the semi-arid Millbrook catchment-reservoir system that supplies drinking water to north-eastern suburbs of Adelaide, South Australia. The catchment hosts viti- and horticultural land uses. The warm-monomictic, mesotrophic reservoir is artificially aerated in summer. After validating the simulation results for both Millbrook catchment and reservoir, a comprehensive scenario analysis has been conducted to reveal cascading effects of altered management practices, land uses and climate conditions on water quality in the reservoir. Results suggest that the effect on reservoir condition in summer would be severe, most likely resulting in chlorophyll-a concentrations of greater than 40 μg/l if the artificial destratification was not applied from early summer. A 50% curbing of water diversion from an external pipeline to the catchment will slightly limit chlorophyll-a concentrations by 1.22% as an effect of reduced inflow phosphate loads. The simulation of prospective land use scenarios converting 50% of present pasture in the Millbrook catchment into residential and orchards areas indicates an increase of summer chlorophyll-a concentrations by 9.5-107.9%, respectively in the reservoir. Global warming scenarios based on the high emission simulated by SWAT-SALMO did result in earlier growth of chlorophyll-a but overall the effects on water quality in the Millbrook reservoir was not significant. However scenarios combining global warming and land use changes resulted in significant eutrophication effects in the reservoir, especially in the unmanaged condition with stratification in summer. This study has demonstrated that complementary model ensembles like SWAT-SALMO allow to comprehend more realistically cascading effects of distinct catchment processes on internal reservoir's processes, and facilitate integrated management scenarios. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Development of a 1 D hydrodynamic habitat model for the Hippopotamus amphibious as basis for sustainable exploitation of hydroelectric power

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manful, D. Y.; Kaule, G.; Wieprecht, S.; Rees, J.; Hu, W.

2009-12-01

Hydroelectric Power (HEP) is proving to be a good alternative to carbon based energy. In the past hydropower especially large scale hydro attracted significant criticism as a result of its impact on the environment. A new breed of hydroelectric dam is in the offing. The aim is to have as little a footprint as possible on the environment in both pre and post construction phases and thus minimize impact on biodiversity whilst producing clean renewable energy. The Bui dam is 400 MW scheme currently under development on the Black Volta River in the Bui national park in Ghana. The reservoir created by the Bui barrage is expected to impact (through inundation) the habitat of two species of hippos know to exist in the park, the Hippopotamus amphibius and the Choeropsis liberiensis. Computer-based models present a unique opportunity to assess quantitatively the impact of the new reservoir on the habitat of the target species in this case the H. amphibious. Until this undertaking, there were very few studies documenting the habitat of the H. amphibious let alone model it. The work and subsequent presentation will show the development of a habitat model for the Hippopotamus amphibius. The Habitat Information retrieval Program based on Streamflow Analysis, in short HIPStrA, is a one dimensional (1D) in-stream, spatially explicit hybrid construct that combines physico-chemical evidence and expert knowledge to forecast river habitat suitability (Hs) for the Hippopotamus amphibius. The version of the model presented is specifically developed to assess the impact of a reservoir created by a hydroelectric dam on potential dwelling areas in the Bui gorge for hippos. Accordingly, this version of HIPStrA simulates a special reservoir suitability index (Rsi), a metric that captures the”hippo friendliness” of any lake or reservoir. The impact of measured and simulated flood events as well as low flows, representing extreme events is also assessed. Recommendations are made for the operating rules of the reservoir in the post-construction phase of the dam. A great deal of work has been done on the effects of stream flow changes on fish especially salmonids. Very little work however has been done assessing the impact of hydropower schemes on aquatic mammals especially in Africa. HIPStrA is the first attempt at developing a computer-based habitat model for a large aquatic megaherbivore. The need for energy for development, the availability of large rivers and a rich biodiversity base in Africa makes a case for careful and ecological smart exploitation. The overarching aim of the study is the sustainable development of hydroelectric power through the use of methodologies and tools to rigorously assess changes in instream conditions that impact aquatic mammals.

A framework for modeling contaminant impacts on reservoir water quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jeznach, Lillian C.; Jones, Christina; Matthews, Thomas; Tobiason, John E.; Ahlfeld, David P.

2016-06-01

This study presents a framework for using hydrodynamic and water quality models to understand the fate and transport of potential contaminants in a reservoir and to develop appropriate emergency response and remedial actions. In the event of an emergency situation, prior detailed modeling efforts and scenario evaluations allow for an understanding of contaminant plume behavior, including maximum concentrations that could occur at the drinking water intake and contaminant travel time to the intake. A case study assessment of the Wachusett Reservoir, a major drinking water supply for metropolitan Boston, MA, provides an example of an application of the framework and how hydrodynamic and water quality models can be used to quantitatively and scientifically guide management in response to varieties of contaminant scenarios. The model CE-QUAL-W2 was used to investigate the water quality impacts of several hypothetical contaminant scenarios, including hypothetical fecal coliform input from a sewage overflow as well as an accidental railway spill of ammonium nitrate. Scenarios investigated the impacts of decay rates, season, and inter-reservoir transfers on contaminant arrival times and concentrations at the drinking water intake. The modeling study highlights the importance of a rapid operational response by managers to contain a contaminant spill in order to minimize the mass of contaminant that enters the water column, based on modeled reservoir hydrodynamics. The development and use of hydrodynamic and water quality models for surface drinking water sources subject to the potential for contaminant entry can provide valuable guidance for making decisions about emergency response and remediation actions.

Satellite-based measurements of surface deformation reveal fluid flow associated with the geological storage of carbon dioxide

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vasco, D.W.; Rucci, A.; Ferretti, A.

2009-10-15

Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR), gathered over the In Salah CO{sub 2} storage project in Algeria, provides an early indication that satellite-based geodetic methods can be effective in monitoring the geological storage of carbon dioxide. An injected volume of 3 million tons of carbon dioxide, from one of the first large-scale carbon sequestration efforts, produces a measurable surface displacement of approximately 5 mm/year. Using geophysical inverse techniques we are able to infer flow within the reservoir layer and within a seismically detected fracture/ fault zone intersecting the reservoir. We find that, if we use the best available elastic Earth model,more » the fluid flow need only occur in the vicinity of the reservoir layer. However, flow associated with the injection of the carbon dioxide does appear to extend several kilometers laterally within the reservoir, following the fracture/fault zone.« less

Reservoir Identification: Parameter Characterization or Feature Classification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, J.

2017-12-01

The ultimate goal of oil and gas exploration is to find the oil or gas reservoirs with industrial mining value. Therefore, the core task of modern oil and gas exploration is to identify oil or gas reservoirs on the seismic profiles. Traditionally, the reservoir is identify by seismic inversion of a series of physical parameters such as porosity, saturation, permeability, formation pressure, and so on. Due to the heterogeneity of the geological medium, the approximation of the inversion model and the incompleteness and noisy of the data, the inversion results are highly uncertain and must be calibrated or corrected with well data. In areas where there are few wells or no well, reservoir identification based on seismic inversion is high-risk. Reservoir identification is essentially a classification issue. In the identification process, the underground rocks are divided into reservoirs with industrial mining value and host rocks with non-industrial mining value. In addition to the traditional physical parameters classification, the classification may be achieved using one or a few comprehensive features. By introducing the concept of seismic-print, we have developed a new reservoir identification method based on seismic-print analysis. Furthermore, we explore the possibility to use deep leaning to discover the seismic-print characteristics of oil and gas reservoirs. Preliminary experiments have shown that the deep learning of seismic data could distinguish gas reservoirs from host rocks. The combination of both seismic-print analysis and seismic deep learning is expected to be a more robust reservoir identification method. The work was supported by NSFC under grant No. 41430323 and No. U1562219, and the National Key Research and Development Program under Grant No. 2016YFC0601

Modeling brine-rock interactions in an enhanced geothermal systemdeep fractured reservoir at Soultz-Sous-Forets (France): a joint approachusing two geochemical codes: frachem and toughreact

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Andre, Laurent; Spycher, Nicolas; Xu, Tianfu

The modeling of coupled thermal, hydrological, and chemical (THC) processes in geothermal systems is complicated by reservoir conditions such as high temperatures, elevated pressures and sometimes the high salinity of the formation fluid. Coupled THC models have been developed and applied to the study of enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) to forecast the long-term evolution of reservoir properties and to determine how fluid circulation within a fractured reservoir can modify its rock properties. In this study, two simulators, FRACHEM and TOUGHREACT, specifically developed to investigate EGS, were applied to model the same geothermal reservoir and to forecast reservoir evolution using theirmore » respective thermodynamic and kinetic input data. First, we report the specifics of each of these two codes regarding the calculation of activity coefficients, equilibrium constants and mineral reaction rates. Comparisons of simulation results are then made for a Soultz-type geothermal fluid (ionic strength {approx}1.8 molal), with a recent (unreleased) version of TOUGHREACT using either an extended Debye-Hueckel or Pitzer model for calculating activity coefficients, and FRACHEM using the Pitzer model as well. Despite somewhat different calculation approaches and methodologies, we observe a reasonably good agreement for most of the investigated factors. Differences in the calculation schemes typically produce less difference in model outputs than differences in input thermodynamic and kinetic data, with model results being particularly sensitive to differences in ion-interaction parameters for activity coefficient models. Differences in input thermodynamic equilibrium constants, activity coefficients, and kinetics data yield differences in calculated pH and in predicted mineral precipitation behavior and reservoir-porosity evolution. When numerically cooling a Soultz-type geothermal fluid from 200 C (initially equilibrated with calcite at pH 4.9) to 20 C and suppressing mineral precipitation, pH values calculated with FRACHEM and TOUGHREACT/Debye-Hueckel decrease by up to half a pH unit, whereas pH values calculated with TOUGHREACT/Pitzer increase by a similar amount. As a result of these differences, calcite solubilities computed using the Pitzer formalism (the more accurate approach) are up to about 1.5 orders of magnitude lower. Because of differences in Pitzer ion-interaction parameters, the calcite solubility computed with TOUGHREACT/Pitzer is also typically about 0.5 orders of magnitude lower than that computed with FRACHEM, with the latter expected to be most accurate. In a second part of this investigation, both models were applied to model the evolution of a Soultz-type geothermal reservoir under high pressure and temperature conditions. By specifying initial conditions reflecting a reservoir fluid saturated with respect to calcite (a reasonable assumption based on field data), we found that THC reservoir simulations with the three models yield similar results, including similar trends and amounts of reservoir porosity decrease over time, thus pointing to the importance of model conceptualization. This study also highlights the critical effect of input thermodynamic data on the results of reactive transport simulations, most particularly for systems involving brines.« less

Continuous-flow separation of live and dead yeasts using reservoir-based dielectrophoresis (rDEP)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patel, Saurin; Showers, Daniel; Vedantam, Pallavi; Tzeng, Tzuen-Rong; Qian, Shizhi; Xuan, Xiangchun

2012-11-01

Separating live and dead cells is critical to the diagnosis of early stage diseases and to the efficacy test of drug screening etc. We develop a novel microfluidic approach to continuous separation of yeast cells by viability inside a reservoir. It exploits the cell dielectrophoresis that is induced by the inherent electric field gradient at the reservoir-microchannel junction to selectively trap dead yeasts and continuously sort them from live ones. We term this approach reservoir-based dielectrophoresis (rDEP). The transporting, focusing, and trapping of live and dead yeast cells at the reservoir-microchannel junction are studied separately by varying the DC-biased AC electric fields. These phenomena can all be reasonably predicted by a 2D numerical model. We find that the AC to DC field ratio for live yeast trapping is higher than that for dead cells because the former experiences a weaker rDEP while having a larger electrokinetic mobility. It is this difference in the AC to DC field ratio that enables the viability-based yeast cell separation. The rDEP approach has unique advantages over existing DEP-based techniques such as the occupation of zero channel space and the elimination of in-channel mechanical or electrical parts. NSF

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mohaghegh, Shahab D.

apability of underground carbon dioxide storage to confine and sustain injected CO2 for a very long time is the main concern for geologic CO2 sequestration. If a leakage from a geological CO2 sequestration site occurs, it is crucial to find the approximate amount and the location of the leak in order to implement proper remediation activity. An overwhelming majority of research and development for storage site monitoring has been concentrated on atmospheric, surface or near surface monitoring of the sequestered CO2. This study aims to monitor the integrity of CO2 storage at the reservoir level. This work proposes developing in-situmore » CO2 Monitoring and Verification technology based on the implementation of Permanent Down-hole Gauges (PDG) or “Smart Wells” along with Artificial Intelligence and Data Mining (AI&DM). The technology attempts to identify the characteristics of the CO2 leakage by de-convolving the pressure signals collected from Permanent Down-hole Gauges (PDG). Citronelle field, a saline aquifer reservoir, located in the U.S. was considered for this study. A reservoir simulation model for CO2 sequestration in the Citronelle field was developed and history matched. The presence of the PDGs were considered in the reservoir model at the injection well and an observation well. High frequency pressure data from sensors were collected based on different synthetic CO2 leakage scenarios in the model. Due to complexity of the pressure signal behaviors, a Machine Learning-based technology was introduced to build an Intelligent Leakage Detection System (ILDS). The ILDS was able to detect leakage characteristics in a short period of time (less than a day) demonstrating the capability of the system in quantifying leakage characteristics subject to complex rate behaviors. The performance of ILDS was examined under different conditions such as multiple well leakages, cap rock leakage, availability of an additional monitoring well, presence of pressure drift and noise in the pressure sensor and uncertainty in the reservoir model.« less

Environmental Impact Assessment of reservoir construction: new perspectives for restoration economy, and development: the Belo Monte Power Plant case study.

PubMed

Tundisi, J G; Matsumura-Tundisi, T; Tundisi, J E M

2015-08-01

The Environmental Impact Assessment of reservoir construction can be viewed as a new strategic perspective for the economic development of a region. Based on the principles of a watershed approach a interdisciplinary and multidisciplinary systemic view including biogeophysiographical, economic and socio environmental studies the new vision of a EIA provides a basic substratum for the restoration economy and an advanced model for the true development much well ahead of the modernization aspects of the project of a reservoir construction.

Numerical simulations of depressurization-induced gas production from gas hydrate reservoirs at the Walker Ridge 312 site, northern Gulf of Mexico

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Myshakin, Evgeniy M.; Gaddipati, Manohar; Rose, Kelly

2012-06-01

In 2009, the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) Gas Hydrates Joint-Industry-Project (JIP) Leg II drilling program confirmed that gas hydrate occurs at high saturations within reservoir-quality sands in the GOM. A comprehensive logging-while-drilling dataset was collected from seven wells at three sites, including two wells at the Walker Ridge 313 site. By constraining the saturations and thicknesses of hydrate-bearing sands using logging-while-drilling data, two-dimensional (2D), cylindrical, r-z and three-dimensional (3D) reservoir models were simulated. The gas hydrate occurrences inferred from seismic analysis are used to delineate the areal extent of the 3D reservoir models. Numerical simulations of gas production from themore » Walker Ridge reservoirs were conducted using the depressurization method at a constant bottomhole pressure. Results of these simulations indicate that these hydrate deposits are readily produced, owing to high intrinsic reservoir-quality and their proximity to the base of hydrate stability. The elevated in situ reservoir temperatures contribute to high (5–40 MMscf/day) predicted production rates. The production rates obtained from the 2D and 3D models are in close agreement. To evaluate the effect of spatial dimensions, the 2D reservoir domains were simulated at two outer radii. The results showed increased potential for formation of secondary hydrate and appearance of lag time for production rates as reservoir size increases. Similar phenomena were observed in the 3D reservoir models. The results also suggest that interbedded gas hydrate accumulations might be preferable targets for gas production in comparison with massive deposits. Hydrate in such accumulations can be readily dissociated due to heat supply from surrounding hydrate-free zones. Special cases were considered to evaluate the effect of overburden and underburden permeability on production. The obtained data show that production can be significantly degraded in comparison with a case using impermeable boundaries. The main reason for the reduced productivity is water influx from the surrounding strata; a secondary cause is gas escape into the overburden. The results dictate that in order to reliably estimate production potential, permeability of the surroundings has to be included in a model.« less

A sensitivity analysis on seismic tomography data with respect to CO2 saturation of a CO2 geological sequestration field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Chanho; Nguyen, Phung K. T.; Nam, Myung Jin; Kim, Jongwook

2013-04-01

Monitoring CO2 migration and storage in geological formations is important not only for the stability of geological sequestration of CO2 but also for efficient management of CO2 injection. Especially, geophysical methods can make in situ observation of CO2 to assess the potential leakage of CO2 and to improve reservoir description as well to monitor development of geologic discontinuity (i.e., fault, crack, joint, etc.). Geophysical monitoring can be based on wireline logging or surface surveys for well-scale monitoring (high resolution and nallow area of investigation) or basin-scale monitoring (low resolution and wide area of investigation). In the meantime, crosswell tomography can make reservoir-scale monitoring to bridge the resolution gap between well logs and surface measurements. This study focuses on reservoir-scale monitoring based on crosswell seismic tomography aiming describe details of reservoir structure and monitoring migration of reservoir fluid (water and CO2). For the monitoring, we first make a sensitivity analysis on crosswell seismic tomography data with respect to CO2 saturation. For the sensitivity analysis, Rock Physics Models (RPMs) are constructed by calculating the values of density and P and S-wave velocities of a virtual CO2 injection reservoir. Since the seismic velocity of the reservoir accordingly changes as CO2 saturation changes when the CO2 saturation is less than about 20%, while when the CO2 saturation is larger than 20%, the seismic velocity is insensitive to the change, sensitivity analysis is mainly made when CO2 saturation is less than 20%. For precise simulation of seismic tomography responses for constructed RPMs, we developed a time-domain 2D elastic modeling based on finite difference method with a staggered grid employing a boundary condition of a convolutional perfectly matched layer. We further make comparison between sensitivities of seismic tomography and surface measurements for RPMs to analysis resolution difference between them. Moreover, assuming a similar reservoir situation to the CO2 storage site in Nagaoka, Japan, we generate time-lapse tomographic data sets for the corresponding CO2 injection process, and make a preliminary interpretation of the data sets.

[Coupling SWAT and CE-QUAL-W2 models to simulate water quantity and quality in Shanmei Reservoir watershed].

PubMed

Liu, Mei-Bing; Chen, Dong-Ping; Chen, Xing-Wei; Chen, Ying

2013-12-01

A coupled watershed-reservoir modeling approach consisting of a watershed distributed model (SWAT) and a two-dimensional laterally averaged model (CE-QUAL-W2) was adopted for simulating the impact of non-point source pollution from upland watershed on water quality of Shanmei Reservoir. Using the daily serial output from Shanmei Reservoir watershed by SWAT as the input to Shanmei Reservoir by CE-QUAL-W2, the coupled modeling was calibrated for runoff and outputs of sediment and pollutant at watershed scale and for elevation, temperature, nitrate, ammonium and total nitrogen in Shanmei Reservoir. The results indicated that the simulated values agreed fairly well with the observed data, although the calculation precision of downstream model would be affected by the accumulative errors generated from the simulation of upland model. The SWAT and CE-QUAL-W2 coupled modeling could be used to assess the hydrodynamic and water quality process in complex watershed comprised of upland watershed and downstream reservoir, and might further provide scientific basis for positioning key pollution source area and controlling the reservoir eutrophication.

Probabilistic inversion of AVO seismic data for reservoir properties and related uncertainty estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zunino, Andrea; Mosegaard, Klaus

2017-04-01

Sought-after reservoir properties of interest are linked only indirectly to the observable geophysical data which are recorded at the earth's surface. In this framework, seismic data represent one of the most reliable tool to study the structure and properties of the subsurface for natural resources. Nonetheless, seismic analysis is not an end in itself, as physical properties such as porosity are often of more interest for reservoir characterization. As such, inference of those properties implies taking into account also rock physics models linking porosity and other physical properties to elastic parameters. In the framework of seismic reflection data, we address this challenge for a reservoir target zone employing a probabilistic method characterized by a multi-step complex nonlinear forward modeling that combines: 1) a rock physics model with 2) the solution of full Zoeppritz equations and 3) a convolutional seismic forward modeling. The target property of this work is porosity, which is inferred using a Monte Carlo approach where porosity models, i.e., solutions to the inverse problem, are directly sampled from the posterior distribution. From a theoretical point of view, the Monte Carlo strategy can be particularly useful in the presence of nonlinear forward models, which is often the case when employing sophisticated rock physics models and full Zoeppritz equations and to estimate related uncertainty. However, the resulting computational challenge is huge. We propose to alleviate this computational burden by assuming some smoothness of the subsurface parameters and consequently parameterizing the model in terms of spline bases. This allows us a certain flexibility in that the number of spline bases and hence the resolution in each spatial direction can be controlled. The method is tested on a 3-D synthetic case and on a 2-D real data set.

Global Sampling for Integrating Physics-Specific Subsystems and Quantifying Uncertainties of CO 2 Geological Sequestration

DOE PAGES

Sun, Y.; Tong, C.; Trainor-Guitten, W. J.; ...

2012-12-20

The risk of CO 2 leakage from a deep storage reservoir into a shallow aquifer through a fault is assessed and studied using physics-specific computer models. The hypothetical CO 2 geological sequestration system is composed of three subsystems: a deep storage reservoir, a fault in caprock, and a shallow aquifer, which are modeled respectively by considering sub-domain-specific physics. Supercritical CO 2 is injected into the reservoir subsystem with uncertain permeabilities of reservoir, caprock, and aquifer, uncertain fault location, and injection rate (as a decision variable). The simulated pressure and CO 2/brine saturation are connected to the fault-leakage model as amore » boundary condition. CO 2 and brine fluxes from the fault-leakage model at the fault outlet are then imposed in the aquifer model as a source term. Moreover, uncertainties are propagated from the deep reservoir model, to the fault-leakage model, and eventually to the geochemical model in the shallow aquifer, thus contributing to risk profiles. To quantify the uncertainties and assess leakage-relevant risk, we propose a global sampling-based method to allocate sub-dimensions of uncertain parameters to sub-models. The risk profiles are defined and related to CO 2 plume development for pH value and total dissolved solids (TDS) below the EPA's Maximum Contaminant Levels (MCL) for drinking water quality. A global sensitivity analysis is conducted to select the most sensitive parameters to the risk profiles. The resulting uncertainty of pH- and TDS-defined aquifer volume, which is impacted by CO 2 and brine leakage, mainly results from the uncertainty of fault permeability. Subsequently, high-resolution, reduced-order models of risk profiles are developed as functions of all the decision variables and uncertain parameters in all three subsystems.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sun, Y.; Tong, C.; Trainor-Guitten, W. J.

The risk of CO 2 leakage from a deep storage reservoir into a shallow aquifer through a fault is assessed and studied using physics-specific computer models. The hypothetical CO 2 geological sequestration system is composed of three subsystems: a deep storage reservoir, a fault in caprock, and a shallow aquifer, which are modeled respectively by considering sub-domain-specific physics. Supercritical CO 2 is injected into the reservoir subsystem with uncertain permeabilities of reservoir, caprock, and aquifer, uncertain fault location, and injection rate (as a decision variable). The simulated pressure and CO 2/brine saturation are connected to the fault-leakage model as amore » boundary condition. CO 2 and brine fluxes from the fault-leakage model at the fault outlet are then imposed in the aquifer model as a source term. Moreover, uncertainties are propagated from the deep reservoir model, to the fault-leakage model, and eventually to the geochemical model in the shallow aquifer, thus contributing to risk profiles. To quantify the uncertainties and assess leakage-relevant risk, we propose a global sampling-based method to allocate sub-dimensions of uncertain parameters to sub-models. The risk profiles are defined and related to CO 2 plume development for pH value and total dissolved solids (TDS) below the EPA's Maximum Contaminant Levels (MCL) for drinking water quality. A global sensitivity analysis is conducted to select the most sensitive parameters to the risk profiles. The resulting uncertainty of pH- and TDS-defined aquifer volume, which is impacted by CO 2 and brine leakage, mainly results from the uncertainty of fault permeability. Subsequently, high-resolution, reduced-order models of risk profiles are developed as functions of all the decision variables and uncertain parameters in all three subsystems.« less

Creep model of unsaturated sliding zone soils and long-term deformation analysis of landslides

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zou, Liangchao; Wang, Shimei; Zhang, Yeming

2015-04-01

Sliding zone soil is a special soil layer formed in the development of a landslide. Its creep behavior plays a significant role in long-term deformation of landslides. Due to rainfall infiltration and reservoir water level fluctuation, the soils in the slide zone are often in unsaturated state. Therefore, the investigation of creep behaviors of the unsaturated sliding zone soils is of great importance for understanding the mechanism of the long-term deformation of a landslide in reservoir areas. In this study, the full-process creep curves of the unsaturated soils in the sliding zone in different net confining pressure, matric suctions and stress levels were obtained from a large number of laboratory triaxial creep tests. A nonlinear creep model for unsaturated soils and its three-dimensional form was then deduced based on the component model theory and unsaturated soil mechanics. This creep model was validated with laboratory creep data. The results show that this creep model can effectively and accurately describe the nonlinear creep behaviors of the unsaturated sliding zone soils. In order to apply this creep model to predict the long-term deformation process of landslides, a numerical model for simulating the coupled seepage and creep deformation of unsaturated sliding zone soils was developed based on this creep model through the finite element method (FEM). By using this numerical model, we simulated the deformation process of the Shuping landslide located in the Three Gorges reservoir area, under the cycling reservoir water level fluctuation during one year. The simulation results of creep displacement were then compared with the field deformation monitoring data, showing a good agreement in trend. The results show that the creeping deformations of landslides have strong connections with the changes of reservoir water level. The creep model of unsaturated sliding zone soils and the findings obtained by numerical simulations in this study are conducive to reveal the mechanisms of the dynamic process of landslide deformation, and serve as an important basis for the prediction and evaluation of landslides.

Integrated Reservoir Modeling of CO2-EOR Performance and Storage Potential in the Farnsworth Field Unit, Texas.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ampomah, W.; Balch, R. S.; Cather, M.; Dai, Z.

2017-12-01

We present a performance assessment methodology and storage potential for CO2 enhanced oil recovery (EOR) in partially depleted reservoirs. A three dimensional heterogeneous reservoir model was developed based on geological, geophysics and engineering data from Farnsworth field Unit (FWU). The model aided in improved characterization of prominent rock properties within the Pennsylvanian aged Morrow sandstone reservoir. Seismic attributes illuminated previously unknown faults and structural elements within the field. A laboratory fluid analysis was tuned to an equation of state and subsequently used to predict the thermodynamic minimum miscible pressure (MMP). Datasets including net-to-gross ratio, volume of shale, permeability, and burial history were used to model initial fault transmissibility based on Sperivick model. An improved history match of primary and secondary recovery was performed to set the basis for a CO2 flood study. The performance of the current CO2 miscible flood patterns was subsequently calibrated to historical production and injection data. Several prediction models were constructed to study the effect of recycling, addition of wells and /or new patterns, water alternating gas (WAG) cycles and optimum amount of CO2 purchase on incremental oil production and CO2 storage in the FWU. The history matching study successfully validated the presence of the previously undetected faults within FWU that were seen in the seismic survey. The analysis of the various prediction scenarios showed that recycling a high percentage of produced gas, addition of new wells and a gradual reduction in CO2 purchase after several years of operation would be the best approach to ensure a high percentage of recoverable incremental oil and sequestration of anthropogenic CO2 within the Morrow reservoir. Larger percentage of stored CO2 were dissolved in residual oil and less amount existed as supercritical free CO2. The geomechanical analysis on the caprock proved to an excellent seal to ensure long-term security of injected CO2.

Fluvial reservoir characterization using topological descriptors based on spectral analysis of graphs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Viseur, Sophie; Chiaberge, Christophe; Rhomer, Jérémy; Audigane, Pascal

2015-04-01

Fluvial systems generate highly heterogeneous reservoir. These heterogeneities have major impact on fluid flow behaviors. However, the modelling of such reservoirs is mainly performed in under-constrained contexts as they include complex features, though only sparse and indirect data are available. Stochastic modeling is the common strategy to solve such problems. Multiple 3D models are generated from the available subsurface dataset. The generated models represent a sampling of plausible subsurface structure representations. From this model sampling, statistical analysis on targeted parameters (e.g.: reserve estimations, flow behaviors, etc.) and a posteriori uncertainties are performed to assess risks. However, on one hand, uncertainties may be huge, which requires many models to be generated for scanning the space of possibilities. On the other hand, some computations performed on the generated models are time consuming and cannot, in practice, be applied on all of them. This issue is particularly critical in: 1) geological modeling from outcrop data only, as these data types are generally sparse and mainly distributed in 2D at large scale but they may locally include high-resolution descriptions (e.g.: facies, strata local variability, etc.); 2) CO2 storage studies as many scales of investigations are required, from meter to regional ones, to estimate storage capacities and associated risks. Recent approaches propose to define distances between models to allow sophisticated multivariate statistics to be applied on the space of uncertainties so that only sub-samples, representative of initial set, are investigated for dynamic time-consuming studies. This work focuses on defining distances between models that characterize the topology of the reservoir rock network, i.e. its compactness or connectivity degree. The proposed strategy relies on the study of the reservoir rock skeleton. The skeleton of an object corresponds to its median feature. A skeleton is computed for each reservoir rock geobody and studied through a graph spectral analysis. To achieve this, the skeleton is converted into a graph structure. The spectral analysis applied on this graph structure allows a distance to be defined between pairs of graphs. Therefore, this distance is used as support for clustering analysis to gather models that share the same reservoir rock topology. To show the ability of the defined distances to discriminate different types of reservoir connectivity, a synthetic data set of fluvial models with different geological settings was generated and studied using the proposed approach. The results of the clustering analysis are shown and discussed.

Integrated observation and modelling of runoff and sediments across different compartments of semi-arid catchments and channel networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bronstert, Axel; Ramon, Batalla; Araújo José C., De; da Costa Alexandre, Cunha; Till, Francke; Andreas, Güntner; Jose, Lopez-Tarazon; George, Mamede; Müller Eva, N.

2010-05-01

About one-third of the global population currently lives in countries which experience conditions of water stress. Such regions, often located within dryland ecosystems, are exposed to the hazard that the available freshwater resources fail to meet the water demand in domestic, agricultural and industrial sectors. Water availability often relies on the retention of river runoff in artificial lakes and reservoirs. However, the water storage in reservoirs is often adversely affected by sedimentation as a result of soil erosion. Erosion of the land surface due to natural or anthropogenic reasons and deposition of the eroded material in reservoirs threatens the reliability of reservoirs as a source of water supply. To sustain future water supply, a quantification of the sediment export from large dryland catchments becomes indispensable. A comprehensive modelling framework for water and sediment transport at the meso-scale, with a particular focus on dryland regions, has been developed from a German, Catalonian and Brazilian team during the last decade. It includes novel components for erosion from erosion-prone hillslopes, sediment transfer, retention and re-mobilization through the river system and sediment distribution, trapping and transfer through a reservoir. The parameterisation for pilot catchments is based on field monitoring campaigns of water and sediment fluxes, the analysis of land-use patterns, and the identification of the sediment hot spots through remotely sensed data. We present results of erosion-prone landscape units, the role of sediment transport in the river system, and the sedimentation processes in reservoirs. The modelling studies demonstrate the wide range of environmental problems where the model may be employed to develop sustainable management strategies for land and water resources. Evaluation of scenarios (land use, climate change) combined with an integrated assessment of options in reservoir management opens the opportunity to address relevant questions of water management including problems of water yield, reservoir capacity and economical comparison of on-/ offsite sediment management.

Reservoir Computing Properties of Neural Dynamics in Prefrontal Cortex

PubMed Central

Procyk, Emmanuel; Dominey, Peter Ford

2016-01-01

Primates display a remarkable ability to adapt to novel situations. Determining what is most pertinent in these situations is not always possible based only on the current sensory inputs, and often also depends on recent inputs and behavioral outputs that contribute to internal states. Thus, one can ask how cortical dynamics generate representations of these complex situations. It has been observed that mixed selectivity in cortical neurons contributes to represent diverse situations defined by a combination of the current stimuli, and that mixed selectivity is readily obtained in randomly connected recurrent networks. In this context, these reservoir networks reproduce the highly recurrent nature of local cortical connectivity. Recombining present and past inputs, random recurrent networks from the reservoir computing framework generate mixed selectivity which provides pre-coded representations of an essentially universal set of contexts. These representations can then be selectively amplified through learning to solve the task at hand. We thus explored their representational power and dynamical properties after training a reservoir to perform a complex cognitive task initially developed for monkeys. The reservoir model inherently displayed a dynamic form of mixed selectivity, key to the representation of the behavioral context over time. The pre-coded representation of context was amplified by training a feedback neuron to explicitly represent this context, thereby reproducing the effect of learning and allowing the model to perform more robustly. This second version of the model demonstrates how a hybrid dynamical regime combining spatio-temporal processing of reservoirs, and input driven attracting dynamics generated by the feedback neuron, can be used to solve a complex cognitive task. We compared reservoir activity to neural activity of dorsal anterior cingulate cortex of monkeys which revealed similar network dynamics. We argue that reservoir computing is a pertinent framework to model local cortical dynamics and their contribution to higher cognitive function. PMID:27286251

A method for optimizing multi-objective reservoir operation upon human and riverine ecosystem demands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ai, Xueshan; Dong, Zuo; Mo, Mingzhu

2017-04-01

The optimal reservoir operation is in generally a multi-objective problem. In real life, most of the reservoir operation optimization problems involve conflicting objectives, for which there is no single optimal solution which can simultaneously gain an optimal result of all the purposes, but rather a set of well distributed non-inferior solutions or Pareto frontier exists. On the other hand, most of the reservoirs operation rules is to gain greater social and economic benefits at the expense of ecological environment, resulting to the destruction of riverine ecology and reduction of aquatic biodiversity. To overcome these drawbacks, this study developed a multi-objective model for the reservoir operating with the conflicting functions of hydroelectric energy generation, irrigation and ecological protection. To solve the model with the objectives of maximize energy production, maximize the water demand satisfaction rate of irrigation and ecology, we proposed a multi-objective optimization method of variable penalty coefficient (VPC), which was based on integrate dynamic programming (DP) with discrete differential dynamic programming (DDDP), to generate a well distributed non-inferior along the Pareto front by changing the penalties coefficient of different objectives. This method was applied to an existing China reservoir named Donggu, through a course of a year, which is a multi-annual storage reservoir with multiple purposes. The case study results showed a good relationship between any two of the objectives and a good Pareto optimal solutions, which provide a reference for the reservoir decision makers.

Modeling stream temperature in the Anthropocene: An earth system modeling approach

DOE PAGES

Li, Hong -Yi; Leung, L. Ruby; Tesfa, Teklu; ...

2015-10-29

A new large-scale stream temperature model has been developed within the Community Earth System Model (CESM) framework. The model is coupled with the Model for Scale Adaptive River Transport (MOSART) that represents river routing and a water management model (WM) that represents the effects of reservoir operations and water withdrawals on flow regulation. The coupled models allow the impacts of reservoir operations and withdrawals on stream temperature to be explicitly represented in a physically based and consistent way. The models have been applied to the Contiguous United States driven by observed meteorological forcing. It is shown that the model ismore » capable of reproducing stream temperature spatiotemporal variation satisfactorily by comparison against the observed streamflow from over 320 USGS stations. Including water management in the models improves the agreement between the simulated and observed streamflow at a large number of stream gauge stations. Both climate and water management are found to have important influence on the spatiotemporal patterns of stream temperature. More interestingly, it is quantitatively estimated that reservoir operation could cool down stream temperature in the summer low-flow season (August – October) by as much as 1~2oC over many places, as water management generally mitigates low flow, which has important implications to aquatic ecosystems. In conclusion, sensitivity of the simulated stream temperature to input data and reservoir operation rules used in the WM model motivates future directions to address some limitations in the current modeling framework.« less

A new model for simulating spring discharge recession and estimating effective porosity of karst aquifers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Bin; Ye, Ming; Dong, Shuning; Dai, Zhenxue; Pei, Yongzhen

2018-07-01

Quantitative analysis of recession curves of karst spring hydrographs is a vital tool for understanding karst hydrology and inferring hydraulic properties of karst aquifers. This paper presents a new model for simulating karst spring recession curves. The new model has the following characteristics: (1) the model considers two separate but hydraulically connected reservoirs: matrix reservoir and conduit reservoir; (2) the model separates karst spring hydrograph recession into three stages: conduit-drainage stage, mixed-drainage stage (with both conduit drainage and matrix drainage), and matrix-drainage stage; and (3) in the mixed-drainage stage, the model uses multiple conduit layers to present different levels of conduit development. The new model outperforms the classical Mangin model and the recently developed Fiorillo model for simulating observed discharge at the Madison Blue Spring located in northern Florida. This is attributed to the latter two characteristics of the new model. Based on the new model, a method is developed for estimating effective porosity of the matrix and conduit reservoirs for the three drainage stages. The estimated porosity values are consistent with measured matrix porosity at the study site and with estimated conduit porosity reported in literature. The new model for simulating karst spring hydrograph recession is mathematically general, and can be applied to a wide range of karst spring hydrographs to understand groundwater flow in karst aquifers. The limitations of the model are discussed at the end of this paper.

Beyond Rating Curves: Time Series Models for in-Stream Turbidity Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, L.; Mukundan, R.; Zion, M.; Pierson, D. C.

2012-12-01

The New York City Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) manages New York City's water supply, which is comprised of over 20 reservoirs and supplies over 1 billion gallons of water per day to more than 9 million customers. DEP's "West of Hudson" reservoirs located in the Catskill Mountains are unfiltered per a renewable filtration avoidance determination granted by the EPA. While water quality is usually pristine, high volume storm events occasionally cause the reservoirs to become highly turbid. A logical strategy for turbidity control is to temporarily remove the turbid reservoirs from service. While effective in limiting delivery of turbid water and reducing the need for in-reservoir alum flocculation, this strategy runs the risk of negatively impacting water supply reliability. Thus, it is advantageous for DEP to understand how long a particular turbidity event will affect their system. In order to understand the duration, intensity and total load of a turbidity event, predictions of future in-stream turbidity values are important. Traditionally, turbidity predictions have been carried out by applying streamflow observations/forecasts to a flow-turbidity rating curve. However, predictions from rating curves are often inaccurate due to inter- and intra-event variability in flow-turbidity relationships. Predictions can be improved by applying an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) time series model in combination with a traditional rating curve. Since 2003, DEP and the Upstate Freshwater Institute have compiled a relatively consistent set of 15-minute turbidity observations at various locations on Esopus Creek above Ashokan Reservoir. Using daily averages of this data and streamflow observations at nearby USGS gauges, flow-turbidity rating curves were developed via linear regression. Time series analysis revealed that the linear regression residuals may be represented using an ARMA(1,2) process. Based on this information, flow-turbidity regressions with ARMA(1,2) errors were fit to the observations. Preliminary model validation exercises at a 30-day forecast horizon show that the ARMA error models generally improve the predictive skill of the linear regression rating curves. Skill seems to vary based on the ambient hydrologic conditions at the onset of the forecast. For example, ARMA error model forecasts issued before a high flow/turbidity event do not show significant improvements over the rating curve approach. However, ARMA error model forecasts issued during the "falling limb" of the hydrograph are significantly more accurate than rating curves for both single day and accumulated event predictions. In order to assist in reservoir operations decisions associated with turbidity events and general water supply reliability, DEP has initiated design of an Operations Support Tool (OST). OST integrates a reservoir operations model with 2D hydrodynamic water quality models and a database compiling near-real-time data sources and hydrologic forecasts. Currently, OST uses conventional flow-turbidity rating curves and hydrologic forecasts for predictive turbidity inputs. Given the improvements in predictive skill over traditional rating curves, the ARMA error models are currently being evaluated as an addition to DEP's Operations Support Tool.

Quantitative Analysis of Existing Conditions and Production Strategies for the Baca Geothermal System, New Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faust, Charles R.; Mercer, James W.; Thomas, Stephen D.; Balleau, W. Pete

1984-05-01

The Baca geothermal reservoir and adjacent aquifers in the Jemez Mountains of New Mexico comprise an integrated hydrogeologic system. Analysis of the geothermal reservoir either under natural conditions or subject to proposed development should account for the mass (water) and energy (heat) balances of adjacent aquifers as well as the reservoir itself. A three-dimensional model based on finite difference approximations is applied to this integrated system. The model simulates heat transport associated with the flow of steam and water through an equivalent porous medium. The Baca geothermal reservoir is dominated by flow in fractures and distinct strata, but at the scale of application the equivalent porous media concept is appropriate. The geothermal reservoir and adjacent aquifers are simulated under both natural conditions and proposed production strategies. Simulation of natural conditions compares favorably with observed pressure, temperature, and thermal discharge data. The history matching simulations show that the results used for comparison are most sensitive to vertical permeability and the area of an assumed high-permeability zone connecting the reservoir to a deep hydrothermal source. Simulations using proposed production strategies and optimistic estimates of certain hydrologic parameters and reservoir extent indicate that a 50-MW power plant could be maintained for a period greater than 30 years. This production, however, will result in significant decreases in the total water discharge to the Jemez River.

Integrated Approach to Drilling Project in Unconventional Reservoir Using Reservoir Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stopa, Jerzy; Wiśniowski, Rafał; Wojnarowski, Paweł; Janiga, Damian; Skrzypaszek, Krzysztof

2018-03-01

Accumulation and flow mechanisms in unconventional reservoir are different compared to conventional. This requires a special approach of field management with drilling and stimulation treatments as major factor for further production. Integrated approach of unconventional reservoir production optimization assumes coupling drilling project with full scale reservoir simulation for determine best well placement, well length, fracturing treatment design and mid-length distance between wells. Full scale reservoir simulation model emulate a part of polish shale - gas field. The aim of this paper is to establish influence of technical factor for gas production from shale gas field. Due to low reservoir permeability, stimulation treatment should be direct towards maximizing the hydraulic contact. On the basis of production scenarios, 15 stages hydraulic fracturing allows boost gas production over 1.5 times compared to 8 stages. Due to the possible interference of the wells, it is necessary to determine the distance between the horizontal parts of the wells trajectories. In order to determine the distance between the wells allowing to maximize recovery factor of resources in the stimulated zone, a numerical algorithm based on a dynamic model was developed and implemented. Numerical testing and comparative study show that the most favourable arrangement assumes a minimum allowable distance between the wells. This is related to the volume ratio of the drainage zone to the total volume of the stimulated zone.

Hydrology and Mosquito Population Dynamics around a Hydropower Reservoir in Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Endo, N.; Eltahir, E. A.

2013-12-01

Malaria is associated with dams because their reservoirs provide mosquitoes, the vector of malaria, with permanent breeding sites. The risk of contracting malaria is likely to be enhanced following the increasing trend of hydropower dam construction to satisfy the expanding energy needs in developing countries. A close examination of its adverse health impacts is critical in the design, construction, and operation phases. We will present results of extensive field studies in 2012 and 2013 around the Koka Reservoir, Ethiopia. The results uncover the importance of reservoir management especially after the rainy seasons. Furthermore, we show the capability of a newly modified hydrology, entomology and malaria transmission simulator, HYDREMATS (Bomblies et al, 2008), and its potential as a tool for evaluating environmental management strategies to control malaria. HYDREMATS was developed to represent how the hydrology in nearby villages is impacted by the reservoir system, and the role of different types of vector ecologies associated with different Anopheles mosquito species. The hydrology component of HYDREMATS simulates three different mosquito breeding habitats: rain-fed pools, groundwater pools, and shoreline water. The entomology component simulates the life cycles of An. funestus and An. arabiensis, the two main vectors around the reservoir. The model was calibrated over the 2012-2013 period. The impact of reservoir water level management on the mosquito population is explored based on numerical model simulations and field experiments.

Eos modeling and reservoir simulation study of bakken gas injection improved oil recovery in the elm coulee field, Montana

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pu, Wanli

The Bakken Formation in the Williston Basin is one of the most productive liquid-rich unconventional plays. The Bakken Formation is divided into three members, and the Middle Bakken Member is the primary target for horizontal wellbore landing and hydraulic fracturing because of its better rock properties. Even with this new technology, the primary recovery factor is believed to be only around 10%. This study is to evaluate various gas injection EOR methods to try to improve on that low recovery factor of 10%. In this study, the Elm Coulee Oil Field in the Williston Basin was selected as the area of interest. Static reservoir models featuring the rock property heterogeneity of the Middle Bakken Member were built, and fluid property models were built based on Bakken reservoir fluid sample PVT data. By employing both compositional model simulation and Todd-Longstaff solvent model simulation methods, miscible gas injections were simulated and the simulations speculated that oil recovery increased by 10% to 20% of OOIP in 30 years. The compositional simulations yielded lower oil recovery compared to the solvent model simulations. Compared to the homogeneous model, the reservoir model featuring rock property heterogeneity in the vertical direction resulted in slightly better oil recovery, but with earlier CO2 break-through and larger CO2 production, suggesting that rock property heterogeneity is an important property for modeling because it has a big effect on the simulation results. Long hydraulic fractures shortened CO2 break-through time greatly and increased CO 2 production. Water-alternating-gas injection schemes and injection-alternating-shut-in schemes can provide more options for gas injection EOR projects, especially for gas production management. Compared to CO2 injection, separator gas injection yielded slightly better oil recovery, meaning separator gas could be a good candidate for gas injection EOR; lean gas generated the worst results. Reservoir simulations also indicate that original rock properties are the dominant factor for the ultimate oil recovery for both primary recovery and gas injection EOR. Because reservoir simulations provide critical inputs for project planning and management, more effort needs to be invested into reservoir modeling and simulation, including building enhanced geologic models, fracture characterization and modeling, and history matching with field data. Gas injection EOR projects are integrated projects, and the viability of a project also depends on different economic conditions.

Impacts of climate change on the food-energy-water nexus in the upper Yellow River Basin: An integrated hydro-economic modeling approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Si, Y.; Cai, X.

2017-12-01

The large-scale reservoir system built on the upper Yellow River serves multiple purposes. The generated hydropower supplies over 60% of the entire electricity for the regional power grid while the irrigated crop production feeds almost one-third of the total population throughout the whole river basin. Moreover, the reservoir system also bears the responsibility for controlling ice flood, which occurs during the non-flood season due to winter ice freezing followed by spring thawing process, and could be even more disastrous than the summer flood. The contradiction of water allocation to satisfy multi-sector demands while mitigating ice flood risk has been longstanding. However, few researchers endeavor to employ the nexus thinking to addressing the complexities involved in all the interlinked purposes. In this study, we develop an integrated hydro-economic model that can be used to explore both the tradeoffs and synergies between the multiple purposes, based on which the water infrastructures (e.g., reservoir, diversion canal, pumping well) can be coordinated for maximizing the co-benefits of multiple sectors. The model is based on a node-link schematic of multiple operations including hydropower generation, irrigation scheduling, and the conjunctive use of surface and ground water resources. In particular, the model depicts some details regarding reservoir operation rules during the ice season using two indicators, i.e., flow control period and flow control level. The rules are obtained from historical records using data mining techniques under different climate conditions, and they are added to the model as part of the system constraints. Future reservoir inflow series are generated by a hydrological model with future climate scenarios projected by General Circulation Model (GCM). By analyzing the model results under the various climate scenarios, the future possible shifting trajectory of the food-energy-water system characteristics will be derived compared to the baseline scenario (i.e., the status-quo condition). Thus the model and the results are expected to be useful for enlightening economically efficient water allocation policy coping with climate change.

Statistical modelling of suspended sediment load in small basin located at Colombian Andes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Javier, Montoya Luis

2016-04-01

In this study a statistical modelling for the estimate the sediment yield based on available observations of water discharge and suspended sediment concentration were done. A multivariate model was applicate to analyze the 33 years of daily suspended sediments load available at a La Garrucha gauging station. A regional analysis were conducted to find a non-dimensional sediment load duration curve. These curves were used to estimate flow and sediments regimen at other inner point at the basin where there are located the Calderas reservoir. The record of sedimentation in the reservoir were used to validate the estimate mean sediments load. A periodical flushing in the reservoir is necessary to maintain the reservoir at the best operating capacity. The non-dimensional sediment load duration curve obtaining was used to find a sediment concentration during high flow regimen (10% of time these values were met or exceeded).These sediment concentration of high flow regimen has been assumed as a concentration that allow an 'environmental flushing', because it try to reproduce the natural regimen of sediments at the river and it sends a sediment concentration that environment can withstand. The sediment transport capacity for these sediment load were verified with a 1D model in order to respect the environmental constraints downstream of the dam. Field data were collected to understand the physical phenomena involved in flushing dynamics in the reservoir and downstream of the dam. These model allow to define an operations rules for the flushing to minimize the environmental effects.

Fena Valley Reservoir watershed and water-balance model updates and expansion of watershed modeling to southern Guam

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rosa, Sarah N.; Hay, Lauren E.

2017-12-01

In 2014, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Defense’s Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program, initiated a project to evaluate the potential impacts of projected climate-change on Department of Defense installations that rely on Guam’s water resources. A major task of that project was to develop a watershed model of southern Guam and a water-balance model for the Fena Valley Reservoir. The southern Guam watershed model provides a physically based tool to estimate surface-water availability in southern Guam. The U.S. Geological Survey’s Precipitation Runoff Modeling System, PRMS-IV, was used to construct the watershed model. The PRMS-IV code simulates different parts of the hydrologic cycle based on a set of user-defined modules. The southern Guam watershed model was constructed by updating a watershed model for the Fena Valley watersheds, and expanding the modeled area to include all of southern Guam. The Fena Valley watershed model was combined with a previously developed, but recently updated and recalibrated Fena Valley Reservoir water-balance model.Two important surface-water resources for the U.S. Navy and the citizens of Guam were modeled in this study; the extended model now includes the Ugum River watershed and improves upon the previous model of the Fena Valley watersheds. Surface water from the Ugum River watershed is diverted and treated for drinking water, and the Fena Valley watersheds feed the largest surface-water reservoir on Guam. The southern Guam watershed model performed “very good,” according to the criteria of Moriasi and others (2007), in the Ugum River watershed above Talofofo Falls with monthly Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency statistic values of 0.97 for the calibration period and 0.93 for the verification period (a value of 1.0 represents perfect model fit). In the Fena Valley watershed, monthly simulated streamflow volumes from the watershed model compared reasonably well with the measured values for the gaging stations on the Almagosa, Maulap, and Imong Rivers—tributaries to the Fena Valley Reservoir—with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency values of 0.87 or higher. The southern Guam watershed model simulated the total volume of the critical dry season (January to May) streamflow for the entire simulation period within –0.54 percent at the Almagosa River, within 6.39 percent at the Maulap River, and within 6.06 percent at the Imong River.The recalibrated water-balance model of the Fena Valley Reservoir generally simulated monthly reservoir storage volume with reasonable accuracy. For the calibration and verification periods, errors in end-of-month reservoir-storage volume ranged from 6.04 percent (284.6 acre-feet or 92.7 million gallons) to –5.70 percent (–240.8 acre-feet or –78.5 million gallons). Monthly simulation bias ranged from –0.48 percent for the calibration period to 0.87 percent for the verification period; relative error ranged from –0.60 to 0.88 percent for the calibration and verification periods, respectively. The small bias indicated that the model did not consistently overestimate or underestimate reservoir storage volume.In the entirety of southern Guam, the watershed model has a “satisfactory” to “very good” rating when simulating monthly mean streamflow for all but one of the gaged watersheds during the verification period. The southern Guam watershed model uses a more sophisticated climate-distribution scheme than the older model to make use of the sparse climate data, as well as includes updated land-cover parameters and the capability to simulate closed depression areas.The new Fena Valley Reservoir water-balance model is useful as an updated tool to forecast short-term changes in the surface-water resources of Guam. Furthermore, the now spatially complete southern Guam watershed model can be used to evaluate changes in streamflow and recharge owing to climate or land-cover changes. These are substantial improvements to the previous models of the Fena Valley watershed and Reservoir. Datasets associated with this report are available as a U.S. Geological Survey data release (Rosa and Hay, 2017; DOI:10.5066/F7HH6HV4).

Hybrid modelling based on support vector regression with genetic algorithms in forecasting the cyanotoxins presence in the Trasona reservoir (Northern Spain).

PubMed

García Nieto, P J; Alonso Fernández, J R; de Cos Juez, F J; Sánchez Lasheras, F; Díaz Muñiz, C

2013-04-01

Cyanotoxins, a kind of poisonous substances produced by cyanobacteria, are responsible for health risks in drinking and recreational waters. As a result, anticipate its presence is a matter of importance to prevent risks. The aim of this study is to use a hybrid approach based on support vector regression (SVR) in combination with genetic algorithms (GAs), known as a genetic algorithm support vector regression (GA-SVR) model, in forecasting the cyanotoxins presence in the Trasona reservoir (Northern Spain). The GA-SVR approach is aimed at highly nonlinear biological problems with sharp peaks and the tests carried out proved its high performance. Some physical-chemical parameters have been considered along with the biological ones. The results obtained are two-fold. In the first place, the significance of each biological and physical-chemical variable on the cyanotoxins presence in the reservoir is determined with success. Finally, a predictive model able to forecast the possible presence of cyanotoxins in a short term was obtained. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Learning to Recognize Actions From Limited Training Examples Using a Recurrent Spiking Neural Model

PubMed Central

Panda, Priyadarshini; Srinivasa, Narayan

2018-01-01

A fundamental challenge in machine learning today is to build a model that can learn from few examples. Here, we describe a reservoir based spiking neural model for learning to recognize actions with a limited number of labeled videos. First, we propose a novel encoding, inspired by how microsaccades influence visual perception, to extract spike information from raw video data while preserving the temporal correlation across different frames. Using this encoding, we show that the reservoir generalizes its rich dynamical activity toward signature action/movements enabling it to learn from few training examples. We evaluate our approach on the UCF-101 dataset. Our experiments demonstrate that our proposed reservoir achieves 81.3/87% Top-1/Top-5 accuracy, respectively, on the 101-class data while requiring just 8 video examples per class for training. Our results establish a new benchmark for action recognition from limited video examples for spiking neural models while yielding competitive accuracy with respect to state-of-the-art non-spiking neural models. PMID:29551962

Nyamulagira’s magma plumbing system inferred from 15 years of InSAR

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wauthier, Christelle; Cayol, Valérie; Poland, Michael; Kervyn, François; D'Oreye, Nicolas; Hooper, Andrew; Samsonov, Sergei; Tiampo, Kristy; Smets, Benoit; Pyle, D. M.; Mather, T.A.; Biggs, J.

2013-01-01

Nyamulagira, located in the east of the Democratic Republic of Congo on the western branch of the East African rift, is Africa’s most active volcano, with an average of one eruption every 3 years since 1938. Owing to the socio-economical context of that region, the volcano lacks ground-based geodetic measurements but has been monitored by interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) since 1996. A combination of 3D Mixed Boundary Element Method and inverse modelling, taking into account topography and source interactions, is used to interpret InSAR ground displacements associated with eruptive activity in 1996, 2002, 2004, 2006 and 2010. These eruptions can be fitted by models incorporating dyke intrusions, and some (namely the 2006 and 2010 eruptions) require a magma reservoir beneath the summit caldera. We investigate inter-eruptive deformation with a multi-temporal InSAR approach. We propose the following magma plumbing system at Nyamulagira by integrating numerical deformation models with other available data: a deep reservoir (c. 25 km depth) feeds a shallower reservoir (c. 4 km depth); proximal eruptions are fed from the shallow reservoir through dykes while distal eruptions can be fed directly from the deep reservoir. A dyke-like conduit is also present beneath the upper southeastern flank of Nyamulagira.

Similarity Theory of Withdrawn Water Temperature Experiment

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

Selective withdrawal from a thermal stratified reservoir has been widely utilized in managing reservoir water withdrawal. Besides theoretical analysis and numerical simulation, model test was also necessary in studying the temperature of withdrawn water. However, information on the similarity theory of the withdrawn water temperature model remains lacking. Considering flow features of selective withdrawal, the similarity theory of the withdrawn water temperature model was analyzed theoretically based on the modification of governing equations, the Boussinesq approximation, and some simplifications. The similarity conditions between the model and the prototype were suggested. The conversion of withdrawn water temperature between the model and the prototype was proposed. Meanwhile, the fundamental theory of temperature distribution conversion was firstly proposed, which could significantly improve the experiment efficiency when the basic temperature of the model was different from the prototype. Based on the similarity theory, an experiment was performed on the withdrawn water temperature which was verified by numerical method. PMID:26065020

Sediment Transport and Deposition Resulting from a Dam-Removal Sediment Pulse: Milltown Dam, Clark Fork River, MT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilcox, A. C.

2010-12-01

The removal of Milltown Dam in 2008 from the Clark Fork River, Montana, USA, lowered base level at the dam site by 9 m and triggered erosion of nearly 600,000 metric tons of predominantly fine reservoir sediment. Bedload and bed-material sampling, repeat topographic surveys, sediment transport modeling, geochemical fingerprinting of downstream sediments, and Lidar analysis have all been applied to study the upstream and downstream effects of the dam removal. In the years since dam breaching, successive years with similar peak flows (3-year recurrence interval) were followed by a third year with below-average runoff. Nearly all of the documented reservoir erosion occurred in the first year, when sand and silt was eroded and transported downstream. In subsequent years, minimal reservoir erosion occurred, in part as a result of active management to prevent further reservoir erosion, but coarse material eroded from the reservoir has dispersed downstream. Upstream responses in this system have been strongly mediated by Superfund remediation activities in Milltown Reservoir, in which over two million metric tons of contaminated sediments have been mechanically excavated. Downstream aggradation has been limited in the main channel but was initially substantial in bars and side channels of a multi-thread reach 21 to 25 km downstream of the dam site, suggesting that channel change has been influenced far more by the antecedent depositional environment than by proximity to the source of the sediment pulse. Comparison of observed erosion with pre-removal modeling shows that reservoir erosion exceeded model predictions by two orders of magnitude in the unconfined Clark Fork arm of the reservoir. In addition, fine reservoir sediments predicted to move exclusively in suspension traveled as bedload at lower transport stages. The resulting fine sediment deposition in substrate interstices, on bars, and in side channels of the gravel- and cobble-bed Clark Fork River is the most significant and lasting change to downstream geomorphic and ecological systems.

Integrated workflow for characterizing and modeling fracture network in unconventional reservoirs using microseismic data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ayatollahy Tafti, Tayeb

We develop a new method for integrating information and data from different sources. We also construct a comprehensive workflow for characterizing and modeling a fracture network in unconventional reservoirs, using microseismic data. The methodology is based on combination of several mathematical and artificial intelligent techniques, including geostatistics, fractal analysis, fuzzy logic, and neural networks. The study contributes to scholarly knowledge base on the characterization and modeling fractured reservoirs in several ways; including a versatile workflow with a novel objective functions. Some the characteristics of the methods are listed below: 1. The new method is an effective fracture characterization procedure estimates different fracture properties. Unlike the existing methods, the new approach is not dependent on the location of events. It is able to integrate all multi-scaled and diverse fracture information from different methodologies. 2. It offers an improved procedure to create compressional and shear velocity models as a preamble for delineating anomalies and map structures of interest and to correlate velocity anomalies with fracture swarms and other reservoir properties of interest. 3. It offers an effective way to obtain the fractal dimension of microseismic events and identify the pattern complexity, connectivity, and mechanism of the created fracture network. 4. It offers an innovative method for monitoring the fracture movement in different stages of stimulation that can be used to optimize the process. 5. Our newly developed MDFN approach allows to create a discrete fracture network model using only microseismic data with potential cost reduction. It also imposes fractal dimension as a constraint on other fracture modeling approaches, which increases the visual similarity between the modeled networks and the real network over the simulated volume.

Simulation of the mulltizones clastic reservoir: A case study of Upper Qishn Clastic Member, Masila Basin-Yemen

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khamis, Mohamed; Marta, Ebrahim Bin; Al Natifi, Ali; Fattah, Khaled Abdel; Lashin, Aref

2017-06-01

The Upper Qishn Clastic Member is one of the main oil-bearing reservoirs that are located at Masila Basin-Yemen. It produces oil from many zones with different reservoir properties. The aim of this study is to simulate and model the Qishn sandstone reservoir to provide more understanding of its properties. The available, core plugs, petrophysical, PVT, pressure and production datasets, as well as the seismic structural and geologic information, are all integrated and used in the simulation process. Eclipse simulator was used as a powerful tool for reservoir modeling. A simplified approach based on a pseudo steady-state productivity index and a material balance relationship between the aquifer pressure and the cumulative influx, is applied. The petrophysical properties of the Qishn sandstone reservoir are mainly investigated based on the well logging and core plug analyses. Three reservoir zones of good hydrocarbon potentiality are indicated and named from above to below as S1A, S1C and S2. Among of these zones, the S1A zone attains the best petrophysical and reservoir quality properties. It has an average hydrocarbon saturation of more than 65%, high effective porosity up to 20% and good permeability record (66 mD). The reservoir structure is represented by faulted anticline at the middle of the study with a down going decrease in geometry from S1A zone to S2 zone. It is limited by NE-SW and E-W bounding faults, with a weak aquifer connection from the east. The analysis of pressure and PVT data has revealed that the reservoir fluid type is dead oil with very low gas liquid ratio (GLR). The simulation results indicate heterogeneous reservoir associated with weak aquifer, supported by high initial water saturation and high water cut. Initial oil in place is estimated to be around 628 MM BBL, however, the oil recovery during the period of production is very low (<10%) because of the high water cut due to the fractures associated with many faults. Hence, secondary and tertiary methods are needed to enhance the oil recovery. Water flooding is recommended as the first step of oil recovery enhancement by changing some of high water cut wells to injectors.

A GIS based watershed information system for water resources management and planning in semi-arid areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tzabiras, John; Spiliotopoulos, Marios; Kokkinos, Kostantinos; Fafoutis, Chrysostomos; Sidiropoulos, Pantelis; Vasiliades, Lampros; Papaioannou, George; Loukas, Athanasios; Mylopoulos, Nikitas

2015-04-01

The overall objective of this work is the development of an Information System which could be used by stakeholders for the purposes of water management as well as for planning and strategic decision-making in semi-arid areas. An integrated modeling system has been developed and applied to evaluate the sustainability of water resources management strategies in Lake Karla watershed, Greece. The modeling system, developed in the framework of "HYDROMENTOR" research project, is based on a GIS modelling approach which uses remote sensing data and includes coupled models for the simulation of surface water and groundwater resources, the operation of hydrotechnical projects (reservoir operation and irrigation works) and the estimation of water demands at several spatial scales. Lake Karla basin was the region where the system was tested but the methodology may be the basis for future analysis elsewhere. Τwo (2) base and three (3) management scenarios were investigated. In total, eight (8) water management scenarios were evaluated: i) Base scenario without operation of the reservoir and the designed Lake Karla district irrigation network (actual situation) • Reduction of channel losses • Alteration of irrigation methods • Introduction of greenhouse cultivation ii) Base scenario including the operation of the reservoir and the Lake Karla district irrigation network • Reduction of channel losses • Alteration of irrigation methods • Introduction of greenhouse cultivation The results show that, under the existing water resources management, the water deficit of Lake Karla watershed is very large. However, the operation of the reservoir and the cooperative Lake Karla district irrigation network coupled with water demand management measures, like reduction of water distribution system losses and alteration of irrigation methods, could alleviate the problem and lead to sustainable and ecological use of water resources in the study area. Acknowledgements: This study has been supported by the research project "Hydromentor" funded by the Greek General Secretariat of Research and Technology in the framework of the E.U. co-funded National Action "Cooperation"

Landslide study at Sacele reservoir in Romania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cannata, Massimiliano; Ambrosi, Christian; Spataro, Alessio; Martin, James; Olgun, Guney

2010-05-01

Sacele reservoir is locate on the river Tàrlung, about 3 Km upstream from Sacele and about 12 Km from Brasov (Romania). It represents the main drinking water source for Brasov. The Sacele reservoir is recognized as a dam of exceptional importance and therefore it requires special surveillance. In the East side of the basin, in proximity of the barrage, the slope shows evidences of instability; for this reason stabilization works, mainly consisting in re-profiling the slope, and drainage installation, has been conducted without success. This study, financed by the World Bank, aims to provide important information for the estabilishment of an authomatic monitoring system able to reduce the existing risk. Conducted studies includes: - analysis of existing informations - data acquisition by mean of field survey (geodetical and gelogical) and in situ investigation (boreholes, geophisical, sample test) - developement of GIS based geological model - developement of landslide models based on FLAC and FLAC3D Finally the model results leading to the identification of the triggering factors are discussed. The conducted work is a comprehensive study (from data to models) that highligth some interesting conclusions showing how the "stabilization" works increased total displacements and shear strain, and produced a new deeper cinematic.

Research on the Placement of the Ecological Shelter Zone in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shan, N.; Ruan, X.

2011-12-01

The Three Gorges Dam is built on the middle reaches of Yangtze River (Changjiang) in south-central China, which is the world's third longest river. The Three Gorges Reservoir Region (TGRR), including the entire inundated area and 19 administrative units (counties and cities) on both sides of the river, is regarded as an environmentally sensitive area. The total area of the TGRR is approximately 58000 km2. As the Three Gorges Dam fully operated, for the flood control, the water level should be kept in the range between 145 m and 175 m and the reservoir surface water area(over 1080 km2)at a water level of 175 m, with a length of 600 km. Many of cities, villages and farms have been submerged. Moreover, as a result of reservoir operation, the water-level alternation of the reservoir is opposite to the nature, which is low water level (145m) in summer and high water level (175m) in winter. The Hydro-Fluctuation Belt, with a height of 30m, will become a new pollution source due to the riparian being flooded and the submerged areas may still contain trace amounts of toxic or radioactive materials. The environmental impacts associated with large scale reservoir area often have significant negative impacts on the environment. It affects forest cover, species in the area, some endangered, water quality, increase the likelihood of earthquakes and mudslides in the area. To solve these problems, it is necessarily to construct the Ecological Shelter Zone (ESZ) along with the edge of the reservoir area. The function of the ESZ is similar to the riparian zone in reducing flood damage, improving water quality, decreasing the levels of the nonpoint source pollution load and soil erosion and rebuilding the migration routes of plant and wildlife. However, the research of the ESZ is mainly focused on rivers at field scale by now, lack of research method on reservoir at the watershed scale. As the special nature of the Three Gorges Reservoir, the construction of the ESZ in the TGRA is very complex. This paper focus on the development of a methodology to target the ESZ based on currently available tools (Remote Sensing, GIS and Hydrologic Model). According to the features of the TGRR, a spatially explicit and process-based method was introduced to help plan the placement of the ESZ in the TGRR for water quality benefits. The methods presented here were based on the integration of grid-based terrain analysis and nonpoint source pollution estimates. Firstly, the contribution of nonpoint source pollution from upslope farmland and urban to the TGRR was determined by grid-based terrain analysis. The upslope contributing area beyond the ESZ was defined as a "source". The SWAT model was used to analyze the characteristics of the pollution load. Secondly, the ESZ was defined as a "sink" and the reducing pollution loads in each grid cell of the ESZ was calculated by the REMM model. Finally, the key areas in the TGRA where the ESZ have the greatest potential to improve water quality were identified and the formula of the width of the ESZ was determined. However, the method in this article considers only the function of pollutants reduction in the ESZ, the next stage of the study will involve detailed modeling for the function of ecological corridor in the ESZ.

High resolution modeling of reservoir storage and extent dynamics at the continental scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shin, S.; Pokhrel, Y. N.

2017-12-01

Over the past decade, significant progress has been made in developing reservoir schemes in large scale hydrological models to better simulate hydrological fluxes and storages in highly managed river basins. These schemes have been successfully used to study the impact of reservoir operation on global river basins. However, improvements in the existing schemes are needed for hydrological fluxes and storages, especially at the spatial resolution to be used in hyper-resolution hydrological modeling. In this study, we developed a reservoir routing scheme with explicit representation of reservoir storage and extent at the grid scale of 5km or less. Instead of setting reservoir area to a fixed value or diagnosing it using the area-storage equation, which is a commonly used approach in the existing reservoir schemes, we explicitly simulate the inundated storage and area for all grid cells that are within the reservoir extent. This approach enables a better simulation of river-floodplain-reservoir storage by considering both the natural flood and man-made reservoir storage. Results of the seasonal dynamics of reservoir storage, river discharge at the downstream of dams, and the reservoir inundation extent are evaluated with various datasets from ground-observations and satellite measurements. The new model captures the dynamics of these variables with a good accuracy for most of the large reservoirs in the western United States. It is expected that the incorporation of the newly developed reservoir scheme in large-scale land surface models (LSMs) will lead to improved simulation of river flow and terrestrial water storage in highly managed river basins.

Model documentation for relations between continuous real-time and discrete water-quality constituents in Cheney Reservoir near Cheney, Kansas, 2001--2009

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stone, Mandy L.; Graham, Jennifer L.; Gatotho, Jackline W.

2013-01-01

Cheney Reservoir, located in south-central Kansas, is one of the primary water supplies for the city of Wichita, Kansas. The U.S. Geological Survey has operated a continuous real-time water-quality monitoring station in Cheney Reservoir since 2001; continuously measured physicochemical properties include specific conductance, pH, water temperature, dissolved oxygen, turbidity, fluorescence (wavelength range 650 to 700 nanometers; estimate of total chlorophyll), and reservoir elevation. Discrete water-quality samples were collected during 2001 through 2009 and analyzed for sediment, nutrients, taste-and-odor compounds, cyanotoxins, phytoplankton community composition, actinomycetes bacteria, and other water-quality measures. Regression models were developed to establish relations between discretely sampled constituent concentrations and continuously measured physicochemical properties to compute concentrations of constituents that are not easily measured in real time. The water-quality information in this report is important to the city of Wichita because it allows quantification and characterization of potential constituents of concern in Cheney Reservoir. This report updates linear regression models published in 2006 that were based on data collected during 2001 through 2003. The update uses discrete and continuous data collected during May 2001 through December 2009. Updated models to compute dissolved solids, sodium, chloride, and suspended solids were similar to previously published models. However, several other updated models changed substantially from previously published models. In addition to updating relations that were previously developed, models also were developed for four new constituents, including magnesium, dissolved phosphorus, actinomycetes bacteria, and the cyanotoxin microcystin. In addition, a conversion factor of 0.74 was established to convert the Yellow Springs Instruments (YSI) model 6026 turbidity sensor measurements to the newer YSI model 6136 sensor at the Cheney Reservoir site. Because a high percentage of geosmin and microcystin data were below analytical detection thresholds (censored data), multiple logistic regression was used to develop models that best explained the probability of geosmin and microcystin concentrations exceeding relevant thresholds. The geosmin and microcystin models are particularly important because geosmin is a taste-and-odor compound and microcystin is a cyanotoxin.

An agricultural drought index to incorporate the irrigation process and reservoir operations: A case study in the Tarim River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Zehua; Hao, Zhenchun; Shi, Xiaogang; Déry, Stephen J.; Li, Jieyou; Chen, Sichun; Li, Yongkun

2016-08-01

To help the decision making process and reduce climate change impacts, hydrologically-based drought indices have been used to determine drought severity in the Tarim River Basin (TRB) over the past decades. As the major components of the surface water balance, however, the irrigation process and reservoir operations have not been incorporated into drought indices in previous studies. Therefore, efforts are needed to develop a new agricultural drought index, which is based on the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model coupled with an irrigation scheme and a reservoir module. The new drought index was derived from the simulated soil moisture data from a retrospective VIC simulation from 1961 to 2007 over the irrigated area in the TRB. The physical processes in the coupled VIC model allow the new agricultural drought index to take into account a wide range of hydrologic processes including the irrigation process and reservoir operations. Notably, the irrigation process was found to dominate the surface water balance and drought evolution in the TRB. Furthermore, the drought conditions identified by the new agricultural drought index presented a good agreement with the historical drought events that occurred in 1993-94, 2004, and 2006-07, respectively. Moreover, the spatial distribution of coupled VIC model outputs using the new drought index provided detailed information about where and to what extent droughts occurred.

A dimension reduction method for flood compensation operation of multi-reservoir system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jia, B.; Wu, S.; Fan, Z.

2017-12-01

Multiple reservoirs cooperation compensation operations coping with uncontrolled flood play vital role in real-time flood mitigation. This paper come up with a reservoir flood compensation operation index (ResFCOI), which formed by elements of flood control storage, flood inflow volume, flood transmission time and cooperation operations period, then establish a flood cooperation compensation operations model of multi-reservoir system, according to the ResFCOI to determine a computational order of each reservoir, and lastly the differential evolution algorithm is implemented for computing single reservoir flood compensation optimization in turn, so that a dimension reduction method is formed to reduce computational complexity. Shiguan River Basin with two large reservoirs and an extensive uncontrolled flood area, is used as a case study, results show that (a) reservoirs' flood discharges and the uncontrolled flood are superimposed at Jiangjiaji Station, while the formed flood peak flow is as small as possible; (b) cooperation compensation operations slightly increase in usage of flood storage capacity in reservoirs, when comparing to rule-based operations; (c) it takes 50 seconds in average when computing a cooperation compensation operations scheme. The dimension reduction method to guide flood compensation operations of multi-reservoir system, can make each reservoir adjust its flood discharge strategy dynamically according to the uncontrolled flood magnitude and pattern, so as to mitigate the downstream flood disaster.

A dam-reservoir module for a semi-distributed hydrological model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Lavenne, Alban; Thirel, Guillaume; Andréassian, Vazken; Perrin, Charles; Ramos, Maria-Helena

2017-04-01

Developing modeling tools that help to assess the spatial distribution of water resources is a key issue to achieve better solutions for the optimal management of water availability among users in a river basin. Streamflow dynamics depends on (i) the spatial variability of rainfall, (ii) the heterogeneity of catchment behavior and response, and (iii) local human regulations (e.g., reservoirs) that store and control surface water. These aspects can be successfully handled by distributed or semi-distributed hydrological models. In this study, we develop a dam-reservoir module within a semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model (de Lavenne et al. 2016). The model runs at the daily time step, and has five parameters for each sub-catchment as well as a streamflow velocity parameter for flow routing. Its structure is based on two stores, one for runoff production and one for routing. The calibration of the model is performed from upstream to downstream sub-catchments, which efficiently uses spatially-distributed streamflow measurements. In a previous study, Payan et al. (2008) described a strategy to implement a dam module within a lumped rainfall-runoff model. Here we propose to adapt this strategy to a semi-distributed hydrological modelling framework. In this way, the specific location of existing reservoirs inside a river basin is explicitly accounted for. Our goal is to develop a tool that can provide answers to the different issues involved in spatial water management in human-influenced contexts and at large modelling scales. The approach is tested for the Seine basin in France. Results are shown for model performance with and without the dam module. Also, a comparison with the lumped GR5J model highlights the improvements obtained in model performance by considering human influences more explicitly, and by facilitating parameter identifiability. This work opens up new perspectives for streamflow naturalization analyses and scenario-based spatial assessment of water resources under global change. References de Lavenne, A.; Thirel, G.; Andréassian, V.; Perrin, C. & Ramos, M.-H. (2016), 'Spatial variability of the parameters of a semi-distributed hydrological model', PIAHS 373, 87-94. Payan, J.-L.; Perrin, C.; Andréassian, V. & Michel, C. (2008), 'How can man-made water reservoirs be accounted for in a lumped rainfall-runoff model?', Water Resour. Res. 44(3), W03420.

Classical electrical and hydraulic Windkessel models validate physiological calculations of Windkessel (reservoir) pressure.

PubMed

Sridharan, Sarup S; Burrowes, Lindsay M; Bouwmeester, J Christopher; Wang, Jiun-Jr; Shrive, Nigel G; Tyberg, John V

2012-05-01

Our "reservoir-wave approach" to arterial hemodynamics holds that measured arterial pressure should be considered to be the sum of a volume-related pressure (i.e., reservoir pressure, P(reservoir)) and a wave-related pressure (P(excess)). Because some have questioned whether P(reservoir) (and, by extension, P(excess)) is a real component of measured physiological pressure, it was important to demonstrate that P(reservoir) is implicit in Westerhof's classical electrical and hydraulic models of the 3-element Windkessel. To test the validity of our P(reservoir) determinations, we studied a freeware simulation of the electrical model and a benchtop recreation of the hydraulic model, respectively, measuring the voltage and the pressure distal to the proximal resistance. These measurements were then compared with P(reservoir), as calculated from physiological data. Thus, the first objective of this study was to demonstrate that respective voltage and pressure changes could be measured that were similar to calculated physiological values of P(reservoir). The second objective was to confirm previous predictions with respect to the specific effects of systematically altering proximal resistance, distal resistance, and capacitance. The results of this study validate P(reservoir) and, thus, the reservoir-wave approach.

Three-Dimensional Modeling of the Reactive Transport of CO2 and Its Impact on Geomechanical Properties of Reservoir Rocks and Seals

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nguyen, Ba Nghiep; Hou, Zhangshuan; Bacon, Diana H.

This article develops a novel multiscale modeling approach to analyze CO2 reservoirs using Pacific Northwest National Laboratory’s STOMP-CO2-R code that is interfaced with the ABAQUS® finite element package. The STOMP-CO2-R/ABAQUS® sequentially coupled simulator accounts for the reactive transport of CO2 causing mineral composition changes that modify the geomechanical properties of reservoir rocks and seals. Formation rocks’ elastic properties that vary during CO2 injection and govern the poroelastic behavior of rocks are modeled by an Eshelby-Mori-Tanka approach (EMTA) implemented in ABAQUS® via user-subroutines. The computational tool incorporates the change in rock permeability due to both geochemistry and geomechanics. A three-dimensional (3D)more » STOMP-CO2-R model for a model CO2 reservoir containing a vertical fault is built to analyze a formation containing a realistic geochemical reaction network with 5 minerals: albite, anorthite, calcite, kaolinite and quartz. A 3D ABAQUS® model that maps the above STOMP-CO2-R model is built for the analysis using STOMP-CO2-R/ABAQUS®. The results show that the changes in volume fraction of minerals include dissolution of anorthite, precipitation of calcite and kaolinite, with little change in the albite volume fraction. After a long period of CO2 injection the mineralogical and geomechanical changes significantly reduced the permeability and elastic modulus of the reservoir (between the base and caprock) in front of the fault leading to a reduction of the pressure margin to fracture at and beyond the injection location. The impact of reactive transport of CO2 on the geomechanical properties of reservoir rocks and seals are studied in terms of mineral composition changes that directly affect the rock stiffness, stress and strain distributions as well as the pressure margin to fracture.« less

A mathematical model of reservoir sediment quality prediction based on land-use and erosion processes in watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Junakova, N.; Balintova, M.; Junak, J.

2017-10-01

The aim of this paper is to propose a mathematical model for determining of total nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) content in eroded soil particles with emphasis on prediction of bottom sediment quality in reservoirs. The adsorbed nutrient concentrations are calculated using the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) extended by the determination of the average soil nutrient concentration in top soils. The average annual vegetation and management factor is divided into five periods of the cropping cycle. For selected plants, the average plant nutrient uptake divided into five cropping periods is also proposed. The average nutrient concentrations in eroded soil particles in adsorbed form are modified by sediment enrichment ratio to obtain the total nutrient content in transported soil particles. The model was designed for the conditions of north-eastern Slovakia. The study was carried out in the agricultural basin of the small water reservoir Klusov.

Evaluation of model-based seasonal streamflow and water allocation forecasts for the Elqui Valley, Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delorit, Justin; Cristian Gonzalez Ortuya, Edmundo; Block, Paul

2017-09-01

In many semi-arid regions, multisectoral demands often stress available water supplies. Such is the case in the Elqui River valley of northern Chile, which draws on a limited-capacity reservoir to allocate 25 000 water rights. Delayed infrastructure investment forces water managers to address demand-based allocation strategies, particularly in dry years, which are realized through reductions in the volume associated with each water right. Skillful season-ahead streamflow forecasts have the potential to inform managers with an indication of future conditions to guide reservoir allocations. This work evaluates season-ahead statistical prediction models of October-January (growing season) streamflow at multiple lead times associated with manager and user decision points, and links predictions with a reservoir allocation tool. Skillful results (streamflow forecasts outperform climatology) are produced for short lead times (1 September: ranked probability skill score (RPSS) of 0.31, categorical hit skill score of 61 %). At longer lead times, climatological skill exceeds forecast skill due to fewer observations of precipitation. However, coupling the 1 September statistical forecast model with a sea surface temperature phase and strength statistical model allows for equally skillful categorical streamflow forecasts to be produced for a 1 May lead, triggered for 60 % of years (1950-2015), suggesting forecasts need not be strictly deterministic to be useful for water rights holders. An early (1 May) categorical indication of expected conditions is reinforced with a deterministic forecast (1 September) as more observations of local variables become available. The reservoir allocation model is skillful at the 1 September lead (categorical hit skill score of 53 %); skill improves to 79 % when categorical allocation prediction certainty exceeds 80 %. This result implies that allocation efficiency may improve when forecasts are integrated into reservoir decision frameworks. The methods applied here advance the understanding of the mechanisms and timing responsible for moisture transport to the Elqui Valley and provide a unique application of streamflow forecasting in the prediction of water right allocations.

Origin and effect factors of sedimentary organic carbon in a karst groundwater-fed reservoir, South China.

PubMed

Huang, Siyu; Pu, Junbing; Cao, Jianhua; Li, Jianhong; Zhang, Tao; Jiang, Feng; Li, Li; Wu, Feihong; Pan, Moucheng; Bai, Bing

2018-03-01

Reservoirs are commonly recharged by groundwater that is rich in bicarbonate ions in karst regions of South China, and the recharge of this groundwater to the reservoir can affect the biogeochemical processes of carbon sedimentation at the reservoir bottom. In this study, Dalongdong Reservoir, which is mainly recharged by two subterranean streams, was investigated based on a 42-cm-thick sedimentary core and the 210 Pb/ 137 Cs dating technique and isotope analyses to understand the sedimentary history and identify the carbon sources. The 210 Pb/ 137 Cs age model showed that the sediments were accumulated over the last 60 years. The annual increase precipitation and temperature showed no obvious change compared with trends of δ 13 C in total organic carbon (δ 13 C org ), δ 15 N values in total nitrogen, and the carbon and nitrogen ratio (C/N). This shows that climate was not the main control of the variation in sediment factors. Based on δ 13 C org , δ 15 N, C/N, and isotopic mixing modeling, sources of organic carbon in the sediments were derived from plankton (60.84%), soil (22.93%), waste water (14.56%), and terrestrial plants (1.67%). From 1958 to 1978, reservoir establishment and leakage affected the contribution of the four sources. The contribution of the plankton source increased from 1978 to 2015, resulting from change of water level and continued input of external nitrogen. However, because of the revegetation supplied by an economic aid project the contribution of soil showed a considerable decreasing trend from 1978 to 2002. After 2002, For "Grain for Green" project, the contribution from soil further decreased. After reservoir construction, the contribution of waste water stabilized. The contribution of terrestrial plants started increased rapidly after 2002. Karst groundwater, which contains more dissolved inorganic carbon containing lower δ 13 C DIC than the water sources of other lakes or reservoirs, makes the δ 13 C org value of sediment more negative by phytoplankton photosynthesis in the reservoir.

Quantification of sand fraction from seismic attributes using Neuro-Fuzzy approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verma, Akhilesh K.; Chaki, Soumi; Routray, Aurobinda; Mohanty, William K.; Jenamani, Mamata

2014-12-01

In this paper, we illustrate the modeling of a reservoir property (sand fraction) from seismic attributes namely seismic impedance, seismic amplitude, and instantaneous frequency using Neuro-Fuzzy (NF) approach. Input dataset includes 3D post-stacked seismic attributes and six well logs acquired from a hydrocarbon field located in the western coast of India. Presence of thin sand and shale layers in the basin area makes the modeling of reservoir characteristic a challenging task. Though seismic data is helpful in extrapolation of reservoir properties away from boreholes; yet, it could be challenging to delineate thin sand and shale reservoirs using seismic data due to its limited resolvability. Therefore, it is important to develop state-of-art intelligent methods for calibrating a nonlinear mapping between seismic data and target reservoir variables. Neural networks have shown its potential to model such nonlinear mappings; however, uncertainties associated with the model and datasets are still a concern. Hence, introduction of Fuzzy Logic (FL) is beneficial for handling these uncertainties. More specifically, hybrid variants of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and fuzzy logic, i.e., NF methods, are capable for the modeling reservoir characteristics by integrating the explicit knowledge representation power of FL with the learning ability of neural networks. In this paper, we opt for ANN and three different categories of Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) based on clustering of the available datasets. A comparative analysis of these three different NF models (i.e., Sugeno-type fuzzy inference systems using a grid partition on the data (Model 1), using subtractive clustering (Model 2), and using Fuzzy c-means (FCM) clustering (Model 3)) and ANN suggests that Model 3 has outperformed its counterparts in terms of performance evaluators on the present dataset. Performance of the selected algorithms is evaluated in terms of correlation coefficients (CC), root mean square error (RMSE), absolute error mean (AEM) and scatter index (SI) between target and predicted sand fraction values. The achieved estimation accuracy may diverge minutely depending on geological characteristics of a particular study area. The documented results in this study demonstrate acceptable resemblance between target and predicted variables, and hence, encourage the application of integrated machine learning approaches such as Neuro-Fuzzy in reservoir characterization domain. Furthermore, visualization of the variation of sand probability in the study area would assist in identifying placement of potential wells for future drilling operations.

Geochemical modeling of magma mixing and magma reservoir volumes during early episodes of Kīlauea Volcano's Pu`u `Ō`ō eruption

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shamberger, Patrick J.; Garcia, Michael O.

2007-02-01

Geochemical modeling of magma mixing allows for evaluation of volumes of magma storage reservoirs and magma plumbing configurations. A new analytical expression is derived for a simple two-component box-mixing model describing the proportions of mixing components in erupted lavas as a function of time. Four versions of this model are applied to a mixing trend spanning episodes 3 31 of Kilauea Volcano’s Puu Oo eruption, each testing different constraints on magma reservoir input and output fluxes. Unknown parameters (e.g., magma reservoir influx rate, initial reservoir volume) are optimized for each model using a non-linear least squares technique to fit model trends to geochemical time-series data. The modeled mixing trend closely reproduces the observed compositional trend. The two models that match measured lava effusion rates have constant magma input and output fluxes and suggest a large pre-mixing magma reservoir (46±2 and 49±1 million m3), with little or no volume change over time. This volume is much larger than a previous estimate for the shallow, dike-shaped magma reservoir under the Puu Oo vent, which grew from ˜3 to ˜10 12 million m3. These volumetric differences are interpreted as indicating that mixing occurred first in a larger, deeper reservoir before the magma was injected into the overlying smaller reservoir.

Short-term Operation of Multi-purpose Reservoir using Model Predictive Control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uysal, Gokcen; Schwanenberg, Dirk; Alvarado Montero, Rodolfo; Sensoy, Aynur; Arda Sorman, Ali

2017-04-01

Operation of water structures especially with conflicting water supply and flood mitigation objectives is under more stress attributed to growing water demand and changing hydro-climatic conditions. Model Predictive Control (MPC) based optimal control solutions has been successfully applied to different water resources applications. In this study, Feedback Control (FBC) and MPC get combined and an improved joint optimization-simulation operating scheme is proposed. Water supply and flood control objectives are fulfilled by incorporating the long term water supply objectives into a time-dependent variable guide curve policy whereas the extreme floods are attenuated by means of short-term optimization based on MPC. A final experiment is carried out to assess the lead time performance and reliability of forecasts in a hindcasting experiment with imperfect, perturbed forecasts. The framework is tested in Yuvacık Dam reservoir where the main water supply reservoir of Kocaeli City in the northwestern part of Turkey (the Marmara region) and it requires a challenging gate operation due to restricted downstream flow conditions.

Fuzzy classifier based support vector regression framework for Poisson ratio determination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asoodeh, Mojtaba; Bagheripour, Parisa

2013-09-01

Poisson ratio is considered as one of the most important rock mechanical properties of hydrocarbon reservoirs. Determination of this parameter through laboratory measurement is time, cost, and labor intensive. Furthermore, laboratory measurements do not provide continuous data along the reservoir intervals. Hence, a fast, accurate, and inexpensive way of determining Poisson ratio which produces continuous data over the whole reservoir interval is desirable. For this purpose, support vector regression (SVR) method based on statistical learning theory (SLT) was employed as a supervised learning algorithm to estimate Poisson ratio from conventional well log data. SVR is capable of accurately extracting the implicit knowledge contained in conventional well logs and converting the gained knowledge into Poisson ratio data. Structural risk minimization (SRM) principle which is embedded in the SVR structure in addition to empirical risk minimization (EMR) principle provides a robust model for finding quantitative formulation between conventional well log data and Poisson ratio. Although satisfying results were obtained from an individual SVR model, it had flaws of overestimation in low Poisson ratios and underestimation in high Poisson ratios. These errors were eliminated through implementation of fuzzy classifier based SVR (FCBSVR). The FCBSVR significantly improved accuracy of the final prediction. This strategy was successfully applied to data from carbonate reservoir rocks of an Iranian Oil Field. Results indicated that SVR predicted Poisson ratio values are in good agreement with measured values.

Extreme Threshold Failures Within a Heterogeneous Elastic Thin Sheet and the Spatial-Temporal Development of Induced Seismicity Within the Groningen Gas Field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bourne, S. J.; Oates, S. J.

2017-12-01

Measurements of the strains and earthquakes induced by fluid extraction from a subsurface reservoir reveal a transient, exponential-like increase in seismicity relative to the volume of fluids extracted. If the frictional strength of these reactivating faults is heterogeneously and randomly distributed, then progressive failures of the weakest fault patches account in a general manner for this initial exponential-like trend. Allowing for the observable elastic and geometric heterogeneity of the reservoir, the spatiotemporal evolution of induced seismicity over 5 years is predictable without significant bias using a statistical physics model of poroelastic reservoir deformations inducing extreme threshold frictional failures of previously inactive faults. This model is used to forecast the temporal and spatial probability density of earthquakes within the Groningen natural gas reservoir, conditional on future gas production plans. Probabilistic seismic hazard and risk assessments based on these forecasts inform the current gas production policy and building strengthening plans.

Simulation of Hydrodynamics and Water Quality in Pueblo Reservoir, Southeastern Colorado, for 1985 through 1987 and 1999 through 2002

USGS Publications Warehouse

Galloway, Joel M.; Ortiz, Roderick F.; Bales, Jerad D.; Mau, David P.

2008-01-01

Pueblo Reservoir is west of Pueblo, Colorado, and is an important water resource for southeastern Colorado. The reservoir provides irrigation, municipal, and industrial water to various entities throughout the region. In anticipation of increased population growth, the cities of Colorado Springs, Fountain, Security, and Pueblo West have proposed building a pipeline that would be capable of conveying 78 million gallons of raw water per day (240 acre-feet) from Pueblo Reservoir. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Colorado Springs Utilities and the Bureau of Reclamation, developed, calibrated, and verified a hydrodynamic and water-quality model of Pueblo Reservoir to describe the hydrologic, chemical, and biological processes in Pueblo Reservoir that can be used to assess environmental effects in the reservoir. Hydrodynamics and water-quality characteristics in Pueblo Reservoir were simulated using a laterally averaged, two-dimensional model that was calibrated using data collected from October 1985 through September 1987. The Pueblo Reservoir model was calibrated based on vertical profiles of water temperature and dissolved-oxygen concentration, and water-quality constituent concentrations collected in the epilimnion and hypolimnion at four sites in the reservoir. The calibrated model was verified with data from October 1999 through September 2002, which included a relatively wet year (water year 2000), an average year (water year 2001), and a dry year (water year 2002). Simulated water temperatures compared well to measured water temperatures in Pueblo Reservoir from October 1985 through September 1987. Spatially, simulated water temperatures compared better to measured water temperatures in the downstream part of the reservoir than in the upstream part of the reservoir. Differences between simulated and measured water temperatures also varied through time. Simulated water temperatures were slightly less than measured water temperatures from March to May 1986 and 1987, and slightly greater than measured data in August and September 1987. Relative to the calibration period, simulated water temperatures during the verification period did not compare as well to measured water temperatures. In general, simulated dissolved-oxygen concentrations for the calibration period compared well to measured concentrations in Pueblo Reservoir. Spatially, simulated concentrations deviated more from the measured values at the downstream part of the reservoir than at other locations in the reservoir. Overall, the absolute mean error ranged from 1.05 (site 1B) to 1.42 milligrams per liter (site 7B), and the root mean square error ranged from 1.12 (site 1B) to 1.67 milligrams per liter (site 7B). Simulated dissolved oxygen in the verification period compared better to the measured concentrations than in the calibration period. The absolute mean error ranged from 0.91 (site 5C) to 1.28 milligrams per liter (site 7B), and the root mean square error ranged from 1.03 (site 5C) to 1.46 milligrams per liter (site 7B). Simulated total dissolved solids generally were less than measured total dissolved-solids concentrations in Pueblo Reservoir from October 1985 through September 1987. The largest differences between simulated and measured total dissolved solids were observed at the most downstream sites in Pueblo Reservoir during the second year of the calibration period. Total dissolved-solids data were not available from reservoir sites during the verification period, so in-reservoir specific-conductance data were compared to simulated total dissolved solids. Simulated total dissolved solids followed the same patterns through time as the measured specific conductance data during the verification period. Simulated total nitrogen concentrations compared relatively well to measured concentrations in the Pueblo Reservoir model. The absolute mean error ranged from 0.21 (site 1B) to 0.27 milligram per liter as nitrogen (sites 3B and 7

Multi-objective evolutionary optimization for the joint operation of reservoirs of water supply under water-food-energy nexus management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uen, T. S.; Tsai, W. P.; Chang, F. J.; Huang, A.

2016-12-01

In recent years, urbanization had a great effect on the growth of population and the resource management scheme of water, food and energy nexus (WFE nexus) in Taiwan. Resource shortages of WFE become a long-term and thorny issue due to the complex interactions of WFE nexus. In consideration of rapid socio-economic development, it is imperative to explore an efficient and practical approach for WFE resources management. This study aims to search the optimal solution to WFE nexus and construct a stable water supply system for multiple stakeholders. The Shimen Reservoir and Feitsui Reservoir in northern Taiwan are chosen to conduct the joint operation of the two reservoirs for water supply. This study intends to achieve water resource allocation from the two reservoirs subject to different operating rules and restrictions of resource allocation. The multi-objectives of the joint operation aim at maximizing hydro-power synergistic gains while minimizing water supply deficiency as well as food shortages. We propose to build a multi-objective evolutionary optimization model for analyzing the hydro-power synergistic gains to suggest the most favorable solutions in terms of tradeoffs between WFE. First, this study collected data from two reservoirs and Taiwan power company. Next, we built a WFE nexus model based on system dynamics. Finally, this study optimized the joint operation of the two reservoirs and calculated the synergy of hydro-power generation. The proposed methodology can tackle the complex joint reservoir operation problems. Results can suggest a reliable policy for joint reservoir operation for creating a green economic city under the lowest risks of water supply.

Hydrocarbon Reservoir Identification in Volcanic Zone by using Magnetotelluric and Geochemistry Information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Firda, S. I.; Permadi, A. N.; Supriyanto; Suwardi, B. N.

2018-03-01

The resistivity of Magnetotelluric (MT) data show the resistivity mapping in the volcanic reservoir zone and the geochemistry information for confirm the reservoir and source rock formation. In this research, we used 132 data points divided with two line at exploration area. We used several steps to make the resistivity mapping. There are time series correction, crosspower correction, then inversion of Magnetotelluric (MT) data. Line-2 and line-3 show anomaly geological condition with Gabon fault. The geology structure from the resistivity mapping show the fault and the geological formation with the geological rock data mapping distribution. The geochemistry information show the maturity of source rock formation. According to core sample analysis information, we get the visual porosity for reservoir rock formation in several geological structure. Based on that, we make the geological modelling where the potential reservoir and the source rock around our interest area.

Post waterflood CO{sub 2} miscible flood in light oil, fluvial-dominated deltaic reservoir. FY 1993 annual report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Davis, D.W.

1995-03-01

The project is a Class 1 DOE-sponsored field demonstration project of a CO{sub 2} miscible flood project at the Port Neches Field in Orange County, Texas. The project will determine the recovery efficiency of CO{sub 2} flooding a waterflooded and a partial waterdrive sandstone reservoir at a depth of 5,800. The project will also evaluate the use of a horizontal CO{sub 2} injection well placed at the original oil-water contact of the waterflooded reservoir. A PC-based reservoir screening model will be developed by Texaco`s research lab in Houston and Louisiana State University will assist in the development of a databasemore » of fluvial-dominated deltaic reservoirs where CO{sub 2} flooding may be applicable. This technology will be transferred throughout the oil industry through a series of technical papers and industry open forums.« less

Integrated Sedimentological Approach to Assess Reservoir Quality and Architecture of Khuff Carbonates: Outcrop Analog, Central Saudi Arabia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Osman, Mutsim; Abdullatif, Osman

2017-04-01

The Permian to Triassic Khuff carbonate reservoirs (and equivalents) in the Middle East are estimated to contain about 38.4% of the world's natural gas reserves. Excellent exposed outcrops in central Saudi Arabia provide good outcrop equivalents to subsurface Khuff reservoirs. This study conduct high resolution outcrop scale investigations on an analog reservoir for upper Khartam of Khuff Formation. The main objective is to reconstruct litho- and chemo- stratigraphic outcrop analog model that may serve to characterize reservoir high resolution (interwell) heterogeneity, continuity and architecture. Given the fact of the limitation of subsurface data and toolsin capturing interwell reservoir heterogeneity, which in turn increases the value of this study.The methods applied integrate sedimentological, stratigraphic petrographic, petrophysical data and chemical analyses for major, trace and rare earth elements. In addition, laser scanning survey (LIDAR) was also utilized in this study. The results of the stratigraphic investigations revealed that the lithofacies range from mudstone, wackestone, packestone and grainstone. These lithofacies represent environments ranging from supratidal, intertidal, subtidal and shoal complex. Several meter-scale and less high resolution sequences and composite sequences within 4th and 5th order cycles were also recognized in the outcrop analog. The lithofacies and architectural analysis revealed several vertically and laterally stacked sequences at the outcrop as revealed from the stratigraphic sections and the lidar scan. Chemostratigraphy is effective in identifying lithofacies and sequences within the outcrop analog. Moreover, different chemical signatures were also recognized and allowed establishing and correlating high resolution lithofacies, reservoir zones, layers and surfaces bounding reservoirs and non-reservoir zones at scale of meters or less. The results of this high resolution outcrop analog study might help to understand and evaluate Khuff reservoir heterogeneity, quality and architecture. It might also help to fill the gap in knowledge in reservoir characterization models based on low resolution subsurface data alone.

Sedimentary Geothermal Feasibility Study: October 2016

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Augustine, Chad; Zerpa, Luis

The objective of this project is to analyze the feasibility of commercial geothermal projects using numerical reservoir simulation, considering a sedimentary reservoir with low permeability that requires productivity enhancement. A commercial thermal reservoir simulator (STARS, from Computer Modeling Group, CMG) is used in this work for numerical modeling. In the first stage of this project (FY14), a hypothetical numerical reservoir model was developed, and validated against an analytical solution. The following model parameters were considered to obtain an acceptable match between the numerical and analytical solutions: grid block size, time step and reservoir areal dimensions; the latter related to boundarymore » effects on the numerical solution. Systematic model runs showed that insufficient grid sizing generates numerical dispersion that causes the numerical model to underestimate the thermal breakthrough time compared to the analytic model. As grid sizing is decreased, the model results converge on a solution. Likewise, insufficient reservoir model area introduces boundary effects in the numerical solution that cause the model results to differ from the analytical solution.« less

The hydrological calibration and validation of a complexly-linked watershed reservoir model for the Occoquan watershed, Virginia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Zhongyan; Godrej, Adil N.; Grizzard, Thomas J.

2007-10-01

SummaryRunoff models such as HSPF and reservoir models such as CE-QUAL-W2 are used to model water quality in watersheds. Most often, the models are independently calibrated to observed data. While this approach can achieve good calibration, it does not replicate the physically-linked nature of the system. When models are linked by using the model output from an upstream model as input to a downstream model, the physical reality of a continuous watershed, where the overland and waterbody portions are parts of the whole, is better represented. There are some additional challenges in the calibration of such linked models, because the aim is to simulate the entire system as a whole, rather than piecemeal. When public entities are charged with model development, one of the driving forces is to use public-domain models. This paper describes the use of two such models, HSPF and CE-QUAL-W2, in the linked modeling of the Occoquan watershed located in northern Virginia, USA. The description of the process is provided, and results from the hydrological calibration and validation are shown. The Occoquan model consists of six HSPF and two CE-QUAL-W2 models, linked in a complex way, to simulate two major reservoirs and the associated drainage areas. The overall linked model was calibrated for a three-year period and validated for a two-year period. The results show that a successful calibration can be achieved using the linked approach, with moderate additional effort. Overall flow balances based on the three-year calibration period at four stream stations showed agreement ranging from -3.95% to +3.21%. Flow balances for the two reservoirs, compared via the daily water surface elevations, also showed good agreement ( R2 values of 0.937 for Lake Manassas and 0.926 for Occoquan Reservoir), when missing (un-monitored) flows were included. Validation of the models ranged from poor to fair for the watershed models and excellent for the waterbody models, thus indicating that the current model can be used to explore waterbody issues, but should be used with appropriate care for watershed issues. The study objective of being able to use the Occoquan model to study the impact of land use changes on hydrodynamics and water quality in the waterbodies, particularly the Occoquan Reservoir, can be met with the current model. However, appropriate judgment should be exercised when using the model for the prediction of watershed runoff. One of the advantages of using the linked approach is to develop a direct linkage between upstream land use changes and downstream water quality. This makes it easier for decision-makers to evaluate alternative watershed management plans and for the public to understand the decision-making process. The successful calibration of hydrology provides a solid base for further model development and application.

Spatiotemporal model of Kīlauea's summit magmatic system inferred from InSAR time series and geometry-free time-dependent source inversion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhai, Guang; Shirzaei, Manoochehr

2016-07-01

Kīlauea volcano, Hawai`i Island, has a complex magmatic system including summit reservoirs and rift zones. Kinematic models of the summit reservoir have so far been limited to first-order analytical solutions with predetermined geometry. To explore the complex geometry and kinematics of the summit reservoir, we apply a multitrack wavelet-based InSAR (interferometric synthetic aperture radar) algorithm and a novel geometry-free time-dependent modeling scheme. To map spatiotemporally distributed surface deformation signals over Kīlauea's summit, we process synthetic aperture radar data sets from two overlapping tracks of the Envisat satellite, including 100 images during the period 2003-2010. Following validation against Global Positioning System data, we invert the surface deformation time series to constrain the spatiotemporal evolution of the magmatic system without any prior knowledge of the source geometry. The optimum model is characterized by a spheroidal and a tube-like zone of volume change beneath the summit and the southwest rift zone at 2-3 km depth, respectively. To reduce the model dimension, we apply a principal component analysis scheme, which allows for the identification of independent reservoirs. The first three PCs, explaining 99% (63.8%, 28.5%, and 6.6%, respectively) of the model, include six independent reservoirs with a complex interaction suggested by temporal analysis. The data and model presented here, in agreement with earlier studies, improve the understanding of Kīlauea's plumbing system through enhancing the knowledge of temporally variable magma supply, storage, and transport beneath the summit, and verify the link between summit magmatic activity, seismicity, and rift intrusions.

Modeling Wettability Alteration using Chemical EOR Processes in Naturally Fractured Reservoirs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mojdeh Delshad; Gary A. Pope; Kamy Sepehrnoori

2007-09-30

The objective of our search is to develop a mechanistic simulation tool by adapting UTCHEM to model the wettability alteration in both conventional and naturally fractured reservoirs. This will be a unique simulator that can model surfactant floods in naturally fractured reservoir with coupling of wettability effects on relative permeabilities, capillary pressure, and capillary desaturation curves. The capability of wettability alteration will help us and others to better understand and predict the oil recovery mechanisms as a function of wettability in naturally fractured reservoirs. The lack of a reliable simulator for wettability alteration means that either the concept that hasmore » already been proven to be effective in the laboratory scale may never be applied commercially to increase oil production or the process must be tested in the field by trial and error and at large expense in time and money. The objective of Task 1 is to perform a literature survey to compile published data on relative permeability, capillary pressure, dispersion, interfacial tension, and capillary desaturation curve as a function of wettability to aid in the development of petrophysical property models as a function of wettability. The new models and correlations will be tested against published data. The models will then be implemented in the compositional chemical flooding reservoir simulator, UTCHEM. The objective of Task 2 is to understand the mechanisms and develop a correlation for the degree of wettability alteration based on published data. The objective of Task 3 is to validate the models and implementation against published data and to perform 3-D field-scale simulations to evaluate the impact of uncertainties in the fracture and matrix properties on surfactant alkaline and hot water floods.« less

Monitoring Reservoirs Using MERIS And LANDSAT Fused Images : A Case Study Of Polyfitos Reservoir - West Macedonia - Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stefouli, M.; Charou, E.; Vasileiou, E.; Stathopoulos, N.; Perrakis, A.

2012-04-01

Research and monitoring is essential to assess baseline conditions in reservoirs and their watershed and provide necessary information to guide decision-makers. Erosion and degradation of mountainous areas can lead to gradual aggradation of reservoirs reducing their lifetime. Collected measurements and observations have to be communicated to the managers of the reservoirs so as to achieve a common / comprehensive management of a large watershed and reservoir system. At this point Remote Sensing could help as the remotely sensed data are repeatedly and readily available to the end users. Aliakmon is the longest river in Greece, it's length is about 297 km and the surface of the river basin is 9.210 km2.The flow of the river starts from Northwest of Greece and ends in Thermaikos Gulf. The riverbed is not natural throughout the entire route, because constructed dams restrict water and create artificial lakes, such as lake of Polyfitos, that prevent flooding. This lake is used as reservoir, for covering irrigational water needs and the water is used to produce energy from the hydroelectric plant of Public Power Corporation-PPC. The catchment basin of Polyfitos' reservoir covers an area of 847.76 km2. Soil erosion - degradation in the mountainous watershed of streams of Polyfitos reservoir is taking place. It has been estimated that an annual volume of sediments reaching the reservoir is of the order of 244 m3. Geomatic based techniques are used in processing multiple data of the study area. A data inventory was formulated after the acquisition of topographic maps, compilation of geological and hydro-geological maps, compilation of digital elevation model for the area of interest based on satellite data and available maps. It also includes the acquisition of various hydro-meteorological data when available. On the basis of available maps and satellite data, digital elevation models are used in order to delineate the basic sub-catchments of the Polyfytos basin as well as the irrigation network in the area We evaluate the possibility to merge two different resolution satellite data i.e. MERIS/ENVISAT and LANDSAT to facilitate the study of the Polyfitos reservoir. State of the art data fusion techniques, that preserve the best characteristics (spatial, temporal, spectral) of the two types of images are implemented and used to mining information concerning selected parameters. Summer 2011 Landsat and ENVISAT MERIS satellite images are used in order to extract lake water quality parameters such as water clarity -and sediment content. Assessment of the whole watershed of Polyfitos reservoir is carried out for the last 25 years. The methodology presented here can be used to support existing reservoir monitoring programs as it gives regular measurements for the whole of the watershed area of the reservoir. The results can be made available to end-users / reservoir managers, using web/GIS techniques. They can also support environmental awareness of the conditions of watershed of Polyfitos reservoir.

Model Studies on the Effectiveness of MBBR Reactors for the Restoration of Small Water Reservoirs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nowak, Agata; Mazur, Robert; Panek, Ewa; Chmist, Joanna

2018-02-01

The authors present the Moving Bed Biofilm Reactor (MBBR) model with a quasi-continuous flow for small water reservoir restoration, characterized by high concentrations of organic pollutants. To determine the efficiency of wastewater treatment the laboratory analysis of physic-chemical parameters were conducted for the model on a semi-technical scale of 1:3. Wastewater treatment process was carried out in 24 h for 1 m3 for raw sewage. The startup period was 2 weeks for all biofilters (biological beds). Approximately 50% reduction in COD and BOD5 was obtained on average for the studied bioreactors. Significant improvements were achieved in theclarity of the treated wastewater, with the reduction of suspension by 60%. The oxygen profile has improved significantly in 7 to 9 hours of the process, and a diametric reduction in the oxidative reduction potential was recorded. A preliminary model of biological treatment effectiveness was determined based on the conducted studies. In final stages, the operation mode was set in real conditions of polluted water reservoirs.

A welfare study into capture fisheries in cirata reservoir: a bio-economic model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anna, Z.; Hindayani, P.

2018-04-01

Capture fishery in inland such as reservoirs can be a source of food security and even the economy and public welfare of the surrounding community. This research was conducted on Cirata reservoir fishery in West Java, to see how far reservoir capture fishery can contribute economically in the form of resource rents. The method used is the bioeconomic model Copes, which can analyze the demand and supply functions to calculate the optimization of stakeholders’ welfare in various management regimes. The results showed that the management of capture fishery using Maximum Economic Yield regime (MEY) gave the most efficient result, where fewer inputs would produce maximum profit. In the MEY management, the producer surplus obtained is IDR 2,610.203.099, - per quarter and IDR 273.885.400,- of consumer surplus per quarter. Furthermore, researches showed that sustainable management regime policy MEY result in the government rent/surplus ofIDR 217.891,345, - per quarter with the average price of fish per kg being IDR 13.929. In open access fishery, it was shown that the producer surplus becomesIDR 0. Thus the implementation of the MEY-based instrument policy becomes a necessity for Cirata reservoir capture fishery.

An integrated model for the assessment of global water resources - Part 2: Anthropogenic activities modules and assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hanasaki, N.; Kanae, S.; Oki, T.; Shirakawa, N.

2007-10-01

To assess global water resources from the perspective of subannual variation in water resources and water use, an integrated water resources model was developed. In a companion report, we presented the global meteorological forcing input used to drive the model and two natural hydrological cycle modules, namely, the land surface hydrology module and the river routing module. Here, we present the remaining four modules, which represent anthropogenic activities: a crop growth module, a reservoir operation module, an environmental flow requirement module, and an anthropogenic withdrawal module. In addition, we discuss the results of a global water resources assessment using the integrated model. The crop growth module is a relatively simple model based on heat unit theory and potential biomass and harvest index concepts. The performance of the crop growth module was examined extensively because agricultural water comprises approximately 70% of total water withdrawal in the world. The estimated crop calendar showed good agreement with earlier reports for wheat, maize, and rice in major countries of production. The estimated irrigation water withdrawal also showed fair agreement with country statistics, but tended to underestimate countries in the Asian monsoon region. In the reservoir operation module, 452 major reservoirs with more than 1 km³ each of storage capacity store and release water according to their own rules of operation. Operating rules were determined for each reservoir using an algorithm that used currently available global data such as reservoir storage capacity, intended purposes, simulated inflow, and water demand in the lower reaches. The environmental flow requirement module was newly developed based on case studies from around the world. The integrated model closes both energy and water balances on land surfaces. Global water resources were assessed on a subannual basis using a newly devised index that locates water-stressed regions that were undetected in earlier studies. These regions, which are indicated by a gap in the subannual distribution of water resources and water use, include the Sahel, the Asian monsoon region, and southern Africa. The integrated model is applicable to assess various global environmental projections such as climate change.

Use of XML and Java for collaborative petroleum reservoir modeling on the Internet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Victorine, John; Watney, W. Lynn; Bhattacharya, Saibal

2005-11-01

The GEMINI (Geo-Engineering Modeling through INternet Informatics) is a public-domain, web-based freeware that is made up of an integrated suite of 14 Java-based software tools to accomplish on-line, real-time geologic and engineering reservoir modeling. GEMINI facilitates distant collaborations for small company and academic clients, negotiating analyses of both single and multiple wells. The system operates on a single server and an enterprise database. External data sets must be uploaded into this database. Feedback from GEMINI users provided the impetus to develop Stand Alone Web Start Applications of GEMINI modules that reside in and operate from the user's PC. In this version, the GEMINI modules run as applets, which may reside in local user PCs, on the server, or Java Web Start. In this enhanced version, XML-based data handling procedures are used to access data from remote and local databases and save results for later access and analyses. The XML data handling process also integrates different stand-alone GEMINI modules enabling the user(s) to access multiple databases. It provides flexibility to the user to customize analytical approach, database location, and level of collaboration. An example integrated field-study using GEMINI modules and Stand Alone Web Start Applications is provided to demonstrate the versatile applicability of this freeware for cost-effective reservoir modeling.

Use of XML and Java for collaborative petroleum reservoir modeling on the Internet

USGS Publications Warehouse

Victorine, J.; Watney, W.L.; Bhattacharya, S.

2005-01-01

The GEMINI (Geo-Engineering Modeling through INternet Informatics) is a public-domain, web-based freeware that is made up of an integrated suite of 14 Java-based software tools to accomplish on-line, real-time geologic and engineering reservoir modeling. GEMINI facilitates distant collaborations for small company and academic clients, negotiating analyses of both single and multiple wells. The system operates on a single server and an enterprise database. External data sets must be uploaded into this database. Feedback from GEMINI users provided the impetus to develop Stand Alone Web Start Applications of GEMINI modules that reside in and operate from the user's PC. In this version, the GEMINI modules run as applets, which may reside in local user PCs, on the server, or Java Web Start. In this enhanced version, XML-based data handling procedures are used to access data from remote and local databases and save results for later access and analyses. The XML data handling process also integrates different stand-alone GEMINI modules enabling the user(s) to access multiple databases. It provides flexibility to the user to customize analytical approach, database location, and level of collaboration. An example integrated field-study using GEMINI modules and Stand Alone Web Start Applications is provided to demonstrate the versatile applicability of this freeware for cost-effective reservoir modeling. ?? 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sediment plume model-a comparison between use of measured turbidity data and satellite images for model calibration.

PubMed

Sadeghian, Amir; Hudson, Jeff; Wheater, Howard; Lindenschmidt, Karl-Erich

2017-08-01

In this study, we built a two-dimensional sediment transport model of Lake Diefenbaker, Saskatchewan, Canada. It was calibrated by using measured turbidity data from stations along the reservoir and satellite images based on a flood event in 2013. In June 2013, there was heavy rainfall for two consecutive days on the frozen and snow-covered ground in the higher elevations of western Alberta, Canada. The runoff from the rainfall and the melted snow caused one of the largest recorded inflows to the headwaters of the South Saskatchewan River and Lake Diefenbaker downstream. An estimated discharge peak of over 5200 m 3 /s arrived at the reservoir inlet with a thick sediment front within a few days. The sediment plume moved quickly through the entire reservoir and remained visible from satellite images for over 2 weeks along most of the reservoir, leading to concerns regarding water quality. The aims of this study are to compare, quantitatively and qualitatively, the efficacy of using turbidity data and satellite images for sediment transport model calibration and to determine how accurately a sediment transport model can simulate sediment transport based on each of them. Both turbidity data and satellite images were very useful for calibrating the sediment transport model quantitatively and qualitatively. Model predictions and turbidity measurements show that the flood water and suspended sediments entered upstream fairly well mixed and moved downstream as overflow with a sharp gradient at the plume front. The model results suggest that the settling and resuspension rates of sediment are directly proportional to flow characteristics and that the use of constant coefficients leads to model underestimation or overestimation unless more data on sediment formation become available. Hence, this study reiterates the significance of the availability of data on sediment distribution and characteristics for building a robust and reliable sediment transport model.

Impact of climate change on persistent turbidity in the water supply system of a Metropolitan Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chung, S. W.; Park, H. S.; Lim, K. J.; Kang, B.

2016-12-01

Persistent turbidity, a long-term resuspension of fine particles in aquatic system, is one of the major water quality concerns for the sustainable management of water supply systems in metropolitan areas. Turbid water has undesirable aesthetic and recreational appeal and may have harmful effect on ecosystem health, in addition to increasing water treatment costs in drinking water supply systems. These concerns have been more intensified as the strength and frequency of rainfall events increase by climate change in the Asian monsoon climate region, including Korea. The aim of this study was to assess the impact of potential climate change on the persistent turbidity of the Han River systems that supplies drinking water to approximately 25 million consumers dwelling in the Seoul Metropolitan areas. A comprehensive numerical and statistical modeling suit has been developed and applied to the systems for the projection of future climate, responding hydrological and soil erosion processes in the watershed, and sediment transport processes in the rivers and reservoirs systems. The down-scaled 100 years of climatic data from General Circulation Model (HadGEM2-AO) based on the IPCC's greenhouse-gas emissions scenario RCP4.5 were used for the forcing data of the watershed and river-reservoir models. As the results, an extreme flood event that may incur significant persistent turbidity was projected to be occurred five times in the future. The threshold of a flood event that is classified as an extreme event was based on the historical flood event that occurred on July of 2006 when turbid water had persisted within the Soyang Reservoir and discharged to the downstream of the Han River systems over the year until May of the following year. A two-dimensional river and reservoir model simulated the transport and dynamics of suspended sediments in Soyang Reservoir, and routed the discharged turbid water to the downstream of Paldang Reservoir, in which most of the drinking water offtake facilities are located. The statistical features of the extreme flood events, their impact on the persistent turbidity on the downstream rivers and reservoirs, and consequently on the water supply system of the Seoul Metropolitan areas will be presented in the special session.

Numerical simulation of water injection into vapor-dominated reservoirs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pruess, K.

1995-01-01

Water injection into vapor-dominated reservoirs is a means of condensate disposal, as well as a reservoir management tool for enhancing energy recovery and reservoir life. We review different approaches to modeling the complex fluid and heat flow processes during injection into vapor-dominated systems. Vapor pressure lowering, grid orientation effects, and physical dispersion of injection plumes from reservoir heterogeneity are important considerations for a realistic modeling of injection effects. An example of detailed three-dimensional modeling of injection experiments at The Geysers is given.

Level-set techniques for facies identification in reservoir modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iglesias, Marco A.; McLaughlin, Dennis

2011-03-01

In this paper we investigate the application of level-set techniques for facies identification in reservoir models. The identification of facies is a geometrical inverse ill-posed problem that we formulate in terms of shape optimization. The goal is to find a region (a geologic facies) that minimizes the misfit between predicted and measured data from an oil-water reservoir. In order to address the shape optimization problem, we present a novel application of the level-set iterative framework developed by Burger in (2002 Interfaces Free Bound. 5 301-29 2004 Inverse Problems 20 259-82) for inverse obstacle problems. The optimization is constrained by (the reservoir model) a nonlinear large-scale system of PDEs that describes the reservoir dynamics. We reformulate this reservoir model in a weak (integral) form whose shape derivative can be formally computed from standard results of shape calculus. At each iteration of the scheme, the current estimate of the shape derivative is utilized to define a velocity in the level-set equation. The proper selection of this velocity ensures that the new shape decreases the cost functional. We present results of facies identification where the velocity is computed with the gradient-based (GB) approach of Burger (2002) and the Levenberg-Marquardt (LM) technique of Burger (2004). While an adjoint formulation allows the straightforward application of the GB approach, the LM technique requires the computation of the large-scale Karush-Kuhn-Tucker system that arises at each iteration of the scheme. We efficiently solve this system by means of the representer method. We present some synthetic experiments to show and compare the capabilities and limitations of the proposed implementations of level-set techniques for the identification of geologic facies.

Multireaction equilibrium geothermometry: A sensitivity analysis using data from the Lower Geyser Basin, Yellowstone National Park, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

King, Jonathan M.; Hurwitz, Shaul; Lowenstern, Jacob B.; Nordstrom, D. Kirk; McCleskey, R. Blaine

2016-01-01

A multireaction chemical equilibria geothermometry (MEG) model applicable to high-temperature geothermal systems has been developed over the past three decades. Given sufficient data, this model provides more constraint on calculated reservoir temperatures than classical chemical geothermometers that are based on either the concentration of silica (SiO2), or the ratios of cation concentrations. A set of 23 chemical analyses from Ojo Caliente Spring and 22 analyses from other thermal features in the Lower Geyser Basin of Yellowstone National Park are used to examine the sensitivity of calculated reservoir temperatures using the GeoT MEG code (Spycher et al. 2013, 2014) to quantify the effects of solute concentrations, degassing, and mineral assemblages on calculated reservoir temperatures. Results of our analysis demonstrate that the MEG model can resolve reservoir temperatures within approximately ±15°C, and that natural variation in fluid compositions represents a greater source of variance in calculated reservoir temperatures than variations caused by analytical uncertainty (assuming ~5% for major elements). The analysis also suggests that MEG calculations are particularly sensitive to variations in silica concentration, the concentrations of the redox species Fe(II) and H2S, and that the parameters defining steam separation and CO2 degassing from the liquid may be adequately determined by numerical optimization. Results from this study can provide guidance for future applications of MEG models, and thus provide more reliable information on geothermal energy resources during exploration.

Low robustness of increasing reservoir capacity for adaptation to climate change: A case study for an agricultural river basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Daeha; Eum, Hyung-Il

2017-04-01

With growing concerns of the uncertain climate change, investments in water infrastructures are considered as adaptation policies for water managers and stakeholders despite their negative impacts on the environment. Particularly in regions with limited water availability or conflicting demands, building reservoirs and/or augmenting their storage capacity were already adopted for alleviating influences of the climate change. This study provides a probabilistic assessment of climate change impacts on water scarcity in a river system regulated by an agricultural reservoir in South Korea, which already increased its storage capacity for water supply. For the assessment, we developed the climate response functions (CRFs) defined as relationships between bi-decadal system performance indicators (reservoir reliability and vulnerability) and corresponding climatic conditions, using hydrological models with 10,000-year long stochastic generation of daily precipitation and temperatures. The climate change impacts were assessed by plotting 52 downscaled climate projections of general circulation models (GCMs) on the CRFs. Results indicated that augmented reservoir capacity makes the reservoir system more sensitive to changes in long-term averages of precipitation and temperatures despite improved system performances. Increasing reservoir capacity is unlikely to be "no regret" adaptation policy for the river system. On the other hand, converting the planting strategy from transplanting to direct sowing (i.e., a demand control) could be a more robust to bi-decadal climatic changes based on CRFs and thus could be good to be a no-regret policy.

The impact of lake and reservoir parameterization on global streamflow simulation.

PubMed

Zajac, Zuzanna; Revilla-Romero, Beatriz; Salamon, Peter; Burek, Peter; Hirpa, Feyera A; Beck, Hylke

2017-05-01

Lakes and reservoirs affect the timing and magnitude of streamflow, and are therefore essential hydrological model components, especially in the context of global flood forecasting. However, the parameterization of lake and reservoir routines on a global scale is subject to considerable uncertainty due to lack of information on lake hydrographic characteristics and reservoir operating rules. In this study we estimated the effect of lakes and reservoirs on global daily streamflow simulations of a spatially-distributed LISFLOOD hydrological model. We applied state-of-the-art global sensitivity and uncertainty analyses for selected catchments to examine the effect of uncertain lake and reservoir parameterization on model performance. Streamflow observations from 390 catchments around the globe and multiple performance measures were used to assess model performance. Results indicate a considerable geographical variability in the lake and reservoir effects on the streamflow simulation. Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) and Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) metrics improved for 65% and 38% of catchments respectively, with median skill score values of 0.16 and 0.2 while scores deteriorated for 28% and 52% of the catchments, with median values -0.09 and -0.16, respectively. The effect of reservoirs on extreme high flows was substantial and widespread in the global domain, while the effect of lakes was spatially limited to a few catchments. As indicated by global sensitivity analysis, parameter uncertainty substantially affected uncertainty of model performance. Reservoir parameters often contributed to this uncertainty, although the effect varied widely among catchments. The effect of reservoir parameters on model performance diminished with distance downstream of reservoirs in favor of other parameters, notably groundwater-related parameters and channel Manning's roughness coefficient. This study underscores the importance of accounting for lakes and, especially, reservoirs and using appropriate parameterization in large-scale hydrological simulations.

Reservoir-development impacts on surface-water quantity and quality in the Yampa River basin, Colorado and Wyoming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Adams, D. Briane; Bauer, Daniel P.; Dale, Robert H.; Steele, Timothy Doak

1983-01-01

Development of coal resources and associated economy is accelerating in the Yampa River basin in northwestern Colorado and south-central Wyoming. Increased use of the water resources of the area will have a direct impact on their quantity and quality. As part of 18 surface-water projects, 35 reservoirs have been proposed with a combined total storage of 2.18 million acre-feet, 41% greater than the mean annual outflow from the basin. Three computer models were used to demonstrate methods of evaluating future impacts of reservoir development in the Yampa River basin. Four different reservoir configurations were used to simulate the effects of different degrees of proposed reservoir development. A multireservoir-flow model included both within-basin and transmountain diversions. Simulations indicated that in many cases diversion amounts would not be available for either type of diversion. A corresponding frequency analysis of reservoir storage levels indicated that most reservoirs would be operating with small percentages of total capacities and generally with less than 20% of conservation-pool volumes. Simulations using a dissolved-solids model indicated that extensive reservoir development could increase average annual concentrations at most locations. Simulations using a single-reservoir model indicated no significant occurrence of water-temperature stratification in most reservoirs due to limited reservoir storage. (USGS)

An Alternative Approach to the Operation of Multinational Reservoir Systems: Application to the Amistad & Falcon System (Lower Rio Grande/Rí-o Bravo)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Serrat-Capdevila, A.; Valdes, J. B.

2005-12-01

An optimization approach for the operation of international multi-reservoir systems is presented. The approach uses Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SDP) algorithms, both steady-state and real-time, to develop two models. In the first model, the reservoirs and flows of the system are aggregated to yield an equivalent reservoir, and the obtained operating policies are disaggregated using a non-linear optimization procedure for each reservoir and for each nation water balance. In the second model a multi-reservoir approach is applied, disaggregating the releases for each country water share in each reservoir. The non-linear disaggregation algorithm uses SDP-derived operating policies as boundary conditions for a local time-step optimization. Finally, the performance of the different approaches and methods is compared. These models are applied to the Amistad-Falcon International Reservoir System as part of a binational dynamic modeling effort to develop a decision support system tool for a better management of the water resources in the Lower Rio Grande Basin, currently enduring a severe drought.

Numerical simulation of the SAGD process coupled with geomechanical behavior

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Pingke

Canada has vast oil sand resources. While a large portion of this resource can be recovered by surface mining techniques, a majority is located at depths requiring the application of in situ recovery technologies. Although a number of in situ recovery technologies exist, the steam assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) process has emerged as one of the most promising technologies to develop the in situ oil sands resources. During the SAGD operations, saturated steam is continuously injected into the oil sands reservoir, which induces pore pressure and stress variations. As a result, reservoir parameters and processes may also vary, particularly when tensile and shear failure occur. This geomechanical effect is obvious for oil sands material because oil sands have the in situ interlocked fabric. The conventional reservoir simulation generally does not take this coupled mechanism into consideration. Therefore, this research is to improve the reservoir simulation techniques of the SAGD process applied in the development of oil sands and heavy oil reservoirs. The analyses of the decoupled reservoir geomechanical simulation results show that the geomechanical behavior in SAGD has obvious impact on reservoir parameters, such as absolute permeability. The issues with the coupled reservoir geomechanical simulations of the SAGD process have been clarified and the permeability variations due to geomechanical behaviors in the SAGD process investigated. A methodology of sequentially coupled reservoir geomechanical simulation technique was developed based on the reservoir simulator, EXOTHERM, and the geomechanical simulator, FLAC. In addition, a representative geomechanical model of oil sands material was summarized in this research. Finally, this reservoir geomechanical simulation methodology was verified with the UTF Phase A SAGD project and applied in a SAGD operation with gas-over-bitumen geometry. Based on this methodology, the geomechanical effect on the SAGD production performance can be quantified. This research program involves the analyses of laboratory testing results obtained from literatures. However, no laboratory testing was conducted in the process of this research.

Simulation of water-energy fluxes through small-scale reservoir systems under limited data availability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papoulakos, Konstantinos; Pollakis, Giorgos; Moustakis, Yiannis; Markopoulos, Apostolis; Iliopoulou, Theano; Dimitriadis, Panayiotis; Koutsoyiannis, Demetris; Efstratiadis, Andreas

2017-04-01

Small islands are regarded as promising areas for developing hybrid water-energy systems that combine multiple sources of renewable energy with pumped-storage facilities. Essential element of such systems is the water storage component (reservoir), which implements both flow and energy regulations. Apparently, the representation of the overall water-energy management problem requires the simulation of the operation of the reservoir system, which in turn requires a faithful estimation of water inflows and demands of water and energy. Yet, in small-scale reservoir systems, this task in far from straightforward, since both the availability and accuracy of associated information is generally very poor. For, in contrast to large-scale reservoir systems, for which it is quite easy to find systematic and reliable hydrological data, in the case of small systems such data may be minor or even totally missing. The stochastic approach is the unique means to account for input data uncertainties within the combined water-energy management problem. Using as example the Livadi reservoir, which is the pumped storage component of the small Aegean island of Astypalaia, Greece, we provide a simulation framework, comprising: (a) a stochastic model for generating synthetic rainfall and temperature time series; (b) a stochastic rainfall-runoff model, whose parameters cannot be inferred through calibration and, thus, they are represented as correlated random variables; (c) a stochastic model for estimating water supply and irrigation demands, based on simulated temperature and soil moisture, and (d) a daily operation model of the reservoir system, providing stochastic forecasts of water and energy outflows. Acknowledgement: This research is conducted within the frame of the undergraduate course "Stochastic Methods in Water Resources" of the National Technical University of Athens (NTUA). The School of Civil Engineering of NTUA provided moral support for the participation of the students in the Assembly.

Active Management of Integrated Geothermal-CO2 Storage Reservoirs in Sedimentary Formations

DOE Data Explorer

Buscheck, Thomas A.

2012-01-01

Active Management of Integrated Geothermal–CO2 Storage Reservoirs in Sedimentary Formations: An Approach to Improve Energy Recovery and Mitigate Risk : FY1 Final Report The purpose of phase 1 is to determine the feasibility of integrating geologic CO2 storage (GCS) with geothermal energy production. Phase 1 includes reservoir analyses to determine injector/producer well schemes that balance the generation of economically useful flow rates at the producers with the need to manage reservoir overpressure to reduce the risks associated with overpressure, such as induced seismicity and CO2 leakage to overlying aquifers. This submittal contains input and output files of the reservoir model analyses. A reservoir-model "index-html" file was sent in a previous submittal to organize the reservoir-model input and output files according to sections of the FY1 Final Report to which they pertain. The recipient should save the file: Reservoir-models-inputs-outputs-index.html in the same directory that the files: Section2.1.*.tar.gz files are saved in.

Active Management of Integrated Geothermal-CO2 Storage Reservoirs in Sedimentary Formations

DOE Data Explorer

Buscheck, Thomas A.

2000-01-01

Active Management of Integrated Geothermal–CO2 Storage Reservoirs in Sedimentary Formations: An Approach to Improve Energy Recovery and Mitigate Risk: FY1 Final Report The purpose of phase 1 is to determine the feasibility of integrating geologic CO2 storage (GCS) with geothermal energy production. Phase 1 includes reservoir analyses to determine injector/producer well schemes that balance the generation of economically useful flow rates at the producers with the need to manage reservoir overpressure to reduce the risks associated with overpressure, such as induced seismicity and CO2 leakage to overlying aquifers. This submittal contains input and output files of the reservoir model analyses. A reservoir-model "index-html" file was sent in a previous submittal to organize the reservoir-model input and output files according to sections of the FY1 Final Report to which they pertain. The recipient should save the file: Reservoir-models-inputs-outputs-index.html in the same directory that the files: Section2.1.*.tar.gz files are saved in.

Geological modeling for methane hydrate reservoir characterization in the eastern Nankai Trough, offshore Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tamaki, M.; Komatsu, Y.; Suzuki, K.; Takayama, T.; Fujii, T.

2012-12-01

The eastern Nankai trough, which is located offshore of central Japan, is considered as an attractive potential resource field of methane hydrates. Japan Oil, Gas and Metals National Corporation is planning to conduct a production test in early 2013 at the AT1 site in the north slope of Daini-Atsumi Knoll in the eastern Nankai Trough. The depositional environment of methane hydrate-bearing sediments around the production test site is a deep submarine-fan turbidite system, and it is considered that the reservoir properties should show lateral as well as vertical heterogeneity. Since the variations in the reservoir heterogeneity have an impact on the methane hydrate dissociation and gas production performance, precise geological models describing reservoir heterogeneity would be required for the evaluation of reservoir potentials. In preparation for the production test, 3 wells; two monitoring boreholes (AT1-MC and AT1-MT1) and a coring well (AT1-C), were newly acquired in 2012. In addition to a geotechnical hole drilling survey in 2011 (AT1-GT), totally log data from 2 wells and core data from 2 wells were obtained around the production test site. In this study, we conducted well correlations between AT1 and A1 wells drilled in 2003 and then, 3D geological models were updated including AT1 well data in order to refine hydrate reservoir characterization around the production test site. The results of the well correlations show that turbidite sand layers are characterized by good lateral continuity, and give significant information for the distribution morphology of sand-rich channel fills. We also reviewed previously conducted 3D geological models which consist of facies distributions and petrophysical properties distributions constructed from integration of 3D seismic data and a well data (A1 site) adopting a geostatistical approach. In order to test the practical validity of the previously generated models, cross-validation was conducted using AT1 well data. The results show that geological modeling including AT1 well data is important to reduce the uncertainty of the reservoir properties around the production test site. The geological models including AT1 well data were constructed taking into account for the lateral continuity of turbidite formations based on the well correlations. The concepts of these models are considered to be much more effective for describing reservoir continuity and heterogeneity and predicting upcoming production tests.

Phase-Shifted Based Numerical Method for Modeling Frequency-Dependent Effects on Seismic Reflections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Xuehua; Qi, Yingkai; He, Xilei; He, Zhenhua; Chen, Hui

2016-08-01

The significant velocity dispersion and attenuation has often been observed when seismic waves propagate in fluid-saturated porous rocks. Both the magnitude and variation features of the velocity dispersion and attenuation are frequency-dependent and related closely to the physical properties of the fluid-saturated porous rocks. To explore the effects of frequency-dependent dispersion and attenuation on the seismic responses, in this work, we present a numerical method for seismic data modeling based on the diffusive and viscous wave equation (DVWE), which introduces the poroelastic theory and takes into account diffusive and viscous attenuation in diffusive-viscous-theory. We derive a phase-shift wave extrapolation algorithm in frequencywavenumber domain for implementing the DVWE-based simulation method that can handle the simultaneous lateral variations in velocity, diffusive coefficient and viscosity. Then, we design a distributary channels model in which a hydrocarbon-saturated sand reservoir is embedded in one of the channels. Next, we calculated the synthetic seismic data to analytically and comparatively illustrate the seismic frequency-dependent behaviors related to the hydrocarbon-saturated reservoir, by employing DVWE-based and conventional acoustic wave equation (AWE) based method, respectively. The results of the synthetic seismic data delineate the intrinsic energy loss, phase delay, lower instantaneous dominant frequency and narrower bandwidth due to the frequency-dependent dispersion and attenuation when seismic wave travels through the hydrocarbon-saturated reservoir. The numerical modeling method is expected to contribute to improve the understanding of the features and mechanism of the seismic frequency-dependent effects resulted from the hydrocarbon-saturated porous rocks.

Flood hydrology and dam-breach hydraulic analyses of five reservoirs in Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stevens, Michael R.; Hoogestraat, Galen K.

2013-01-01

The U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service has identified hazard concerns for areas downstream from five Colorado dams on Forest Service land. In 2009, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Forest Service, initiated a flood hydrology analysis to estimate the areal extent of potential downstream flood inundation and hazard to downstream life, property, and infrastructure if dam breach occurs. Readily available information was used for dam-breach assessments of five small Colorado reservoirs (Balman Reservoir, Crystal Lake, Manitou Park Lake, McGinnis Lake, and Million Reservoir) that are impounded by an earthen dam, and no new data were collected for hydraulic modeling. For each reservoir, two dam-breach scenarios were modeled: (1) the dam is overtopped but does not fail (break), and (2) the dam is overtopped and dam-break occurs. The dam-breach scenarios were modeled in response to the 100-year recurrence, 500-year recurrence, and the probable maximum precipitation, 24-hour duration rainstorms to predict downstream flooding. For each dam-breach and storm scenario, a flood inundation map was constructed to estimate the extent of flooding in areas of concern downstream from each dam. Simulation results of the dam-break scenarios were used to determine the hazard classification of the dam structure (high, significant, or low), which is primarily based on the potential for loss of life and property damage resulting from the predicted downstream flooding.

Three dimensional heat transport modeling in Vossoroca reservoir

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arcie Polli, Bruna; Yoshioka Bernardo, Julio Werner; Hilgert, Stephan; Bleninger, Tobias

2017-04-01

Freshwater reservoirs are used for many purposes as hydropower generation, water supply and irrigation. In Brazil, according to the National Energy Balance of 2013, hydropower energy corresponds to 70.1% of the Brazilian demand. Superficial waters (which include rivers, lakes and reservoirs) are the most used source for drinking water supply - 56% of the municipalities use superficial waters as a source of water. The last two years have shown that the Brazilian water and electricity supply is highly vulnerable and that improved management is urgently needed. The construction of reservoirs affects physical, chemical and biological characteristics of the water body, e.g. stratification, temperature, residence time and turbulence reduction. Some water quality issues related to reservoirs are eutrophication, greenhouse gas emission to the atmosphere and dissolved oxygen depletion in the hypolimnion. The understanding of the physical processes in the water body is fundamental to reservoir management. Lakes and reservoirs may present a seasonal behavior and stratify due to hydrological and meteorological conditions, and especially its vertical distribution may be related to water quality. Stratification can control heat and dissolved substances transport. It has been also reported the importance of horizontal temperature gradients, e.g. inflows and its density and processes of mass transfer from shallow to deeper regions of the reservoir, that also may impact water quality. Three dimensional modeling of the heat transport in lakes and reservoirs is an important tool to the understanding and management of these systems. It is possible to estimate periods of large vertical temperature gradients, inhibiting vertical transport and horizontal gradients, which could be responsible for horizontal transport of heat and substances (e.g. differential cooling or inflows). Vossoroca reservoir was constructed in 1949 by the impoundment of São João River and is located near to Curitiba - Brazil. It is monomictic and its function is to regulate the flow to Chaminé hydropower plant. Vossoroca is monitored since 2012. Temperature is measured with seven temperature sensors in the deepest region of the reservoir and meteorological data is measured on a station close to the reservoir. The objective of this work is the 3D modeling of heat transport in Vossoroca reservoir with Delft3D. Temperature gradients between surface and bottom of Vossoroca reservoir during summer may reach 10°C, with surface temperatures around 25°C. Vossoroca is mixed during winter, with temperatures around 15°C. Based on these results, the position of the oxycline can be reconstructed. This information may lead to an adapted reservoir management, minimizing the potential effects to the downstream ecosystem, which normally can be strongly affected by the exposure to oxygen depleted water.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

This report contains presentations presented at a technical symposium on oil production. Chapter 1 contains summaries of the presentations given at the Department of Energy (DOE)-sponsored symposium and key points of the discussions that followed. Chapter 2 characterizes the light oil resource from fluvial-dominated deltaic reservoirs in the Tertiary Oil Recovery Information System (TORIS). An analysis of enhanced oil recovery (EOR) and advanced secondary recovery (ASR) potential for fluvial-dominated deltaic reservoirs based on recovery performance and economic modeling as well as the potential resource loss due to well abandonments is presented. Chapter 3 provides a summary of the general reservoirmore » characteristics and properties within deltaic deposits. It is not exhaustive treatise, rather it is intended to provide some basic information about geologic, reservoir, and production characteristics of deltaic reservoirs, and the resulting recovery problems.« less

Modeling high resolution stratigraphy in the Cusiana Field, Eastern Colombia; static builds to dynamic simulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pulham, A.; MacDonald, D.; Colin, D.

1996-12-31

The Cusiana Field (BP, Ecopetrol, Total and Triton) is located in the Llanos Foothills of Eastern Colombia. The Cusiana reservoirs range from late Cretaceous, passive margin deltaic to early Tertiary, early foreland basin estuarine-fluvial. The key reservoir is the late Eocene Mirador Formation which comprises over 50% of reserves. Currently the Mirador reservoir is providing nearly all of the 180,00 bopd of production from the Cusiana Field. The Mirador reservoir comprises a stack of incised valley deposits. The fills of the valleys are sandstone-dominated and comprise the majority of the reservoir quality in the reservoir. Critical to an effective understandingmore » of reservoir behavior has been a detailed reservoir description and reservoir modeling of the incised valley stratigraphy in the Mirador. Models have been constructed using the deterministic information provided by extensive core (3000 feet) coupled with stochastic tools and techniques. Dynamic data, provided by extensive acquisition of production logs during early development drilling, have been integrated within the static-descriptions. Important reservoir characteristics such as degree of valley connectivity, intra-valley heterogeneities and textural controls on permeability have been captured in the modeling process. Upscaling of the high resolution static model has preserved the key sequence stratigraphic facets of the reservoir and also incorporated textural controls on relative permeability. Prediction of pressure transient behavior and fluid movement is working well in the full field simulator, VIP.« less

Integrated Geothermal-CO2 Storage Reservoirs: FY1 Final Report

DOE Data Explorer

Buscheck, Thomas A.

2012-01-01

The purpose of phase 1 is to determine the feasibility of integrating geologic CO2 storage (GCS) with geothermal energy production. Phase 1 includes reservoir analyses to determine injector/producer well schemes that balance the generation of economically useful flow rates at the producers with the need to manage reservoir overpressure to reduce the risks associated with overpressure, such as induced seismicity and CO2 leakage to overlying aquifers. This submittal contains input and output files of the reservoir model analyses. A reservoir-model "index-html" file was sent in a previous submittal to organize the reservoir-model input and output files according to sections of the FY1 Final Report to which they pertain. The recipient should save the file: Reservoir-models-inputs-outputs-index.html in the same directory that the files: Section2.1.*.tar.gz files are saved in.

Analogue modelling of caprock failure and sediment mobilisation due to pore fluid overpressure in shallow reservoirs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Warsitzka, Michael; Kukowski, Nina; May, Franz

2017-04-01

Injection of CO2 in geological formations may cause excess pore fluid pressure by enhancing the fluid volume in the reservoir rock and by buoyancy-driven flow. If sediments in the reservoir and the caprock are undercompacted, pore fluid overpressure can lead to hydro-fractures in the caprock and fluidisation of sediments. Eventually, these processes trigger the formation of pipe structures, gas chimneys, gas domes or sand injections. Generally, such structures serve as high permeable pathways for fluid migration through a low-permeable seal layer and have to be considered in risk assessment or modelling of caprock integrity of CO2 storage sites. We applied scaled analogue experiments to characterise and quantify mechanisms determining the onset and migration of hydro-fractures in a low-permeable, cohesive caprock and fluidisation of unconsolidated sediments of the reservoir layer. The caprock is simulated by different types of cohesive powder. The reservoir layer consists of granulates with small particle density. Air injected through the base of the experiment and additionally through a single needle valve reaching into the analogue material is applied to generate fluid pressure within the materials. With this procedure, regional fluid pressure increase or a point-like local fluid pressure increase (e.g. injection well), respectively, can be simulated. The deformation in the analogue materials is analysed with a particle tracking imaging velocimetry technique. Pressure sensors at the base of the experiment and in the needle valve record the air pressure during an experimental run. The structural evolution observed in the experiments reveal that the cohesive cap rock first forms a dome-like anticline. Extensional fractures occur at the hinges of the anticline. A further increase of fluid pressure causes a migration of this fractures towards the surface, which is followed by intrusion of reservoir material into the fractures and the collapse of the anticline. The breakthrough of the fractures at the surface is accompanied by a significant drop of air pressure at the base of the analogue materials. The width of the dome shaped uplift is narrower and the initiating fluid pressure in the needle valve is lower, if the fluid pressure at the base of the experiment is larger. The experimental outcomes help to evaluate if the injection of CO2 into a reservoir potentially provokes initiation or reactivation of fractures and sediment mobilisation structures.

Improving real-time inflow forecasting into hydropower reservoirs through a complementary modelling framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gragne, A. S.; Sharma, A.; Mehrotra, R.; Alfredsen, K.

2015-08-01

Accuracy of reservoir inflow forecasts is instrumental for maximizing the value of water resources and benefits gained through hydropower generation. Improving hourly reservoir inflow forecasts over a 24 h lead time is considered within the day-ahead (Elspot) market of the Nordic exchange market. A complementary modelling framework presents an approach for improving real-time forecasting without needing to modify the pre-existing forecasting model, but instead formulating an independent additive or complementary model that captures the structure the existing operational model may be missing. We present here the application of this principle for issuing improved hourly inflow forecasts into hydropower reservoirs over extended lead times, and the parameter estimation procedure reformulated to deal with bias, persistence and heteroscedasticity. The procedure presented comprises an error model added on top of an unalterable constant parameter conceptual model. This procedure is applied in the 207 km2 Krinsvatn catchment in central Norway. The structure of the error model is established based on attributes of the residual time series from the conceptual model. Besides improving forecast skills of operational models, the approach estimates the uncertainty in the complementary model structure and produces probabilistic inflow forecasts that entrain suitable information for reducing uncertainty in the decision-making processes in hydropower systems operation. Deterministic and probabilistic evaluations revealed an overall significant improvement in forecast accuracy for lead times up to 17 h. Evaluation of the percentage of observations bracketed in the forecasted 95 % confidence interval indicated that the degree of success in containing 95 % of the observations varies across seasons and hydrologic years.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ernest A. Mancini

The University of Alabama in cooperation with Texas A&M University, McGill University, Longleaf Energy Group, Strago Petroleum Corporation, and Paramount Petroleum Company are undertaking an integrated, interdisciplinary geoscientific and engineering research project. The project is designed to characterize and model reservoir architecture, pore systems and rock-fluid interactions at the pore to field scale in Upper Jurassic Smackover reef and carbonate shoal reservoirs associated with varying degrees of relief on pre-Mesozoic basement paleohighs in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. The project effort includes the prediction of fluid flow in carbonate reservoirs through reservoir simulation modeling which utilizes geologic reservoir characterization andmore » modeling and the prediction of carbonate reservoir architecture, heterogeneity and quality through seismic imaging. The primary objective of the project is to increase the profitability, producibility and efficiency of recovery of oil from existing and undiscovered Upper Jurassic fields characterized by reef and carbonate shoals associated with pre-Mesozoic basement paleohighs. The principal research effort for Year 2 of the project has been reservoir characterization, 3-D modeling and technology transfer. This effort has included six tasks: (1) the study of rockfluid interactions, (2) petrophysical and engineering characterization, (3) data integration, (4) 3-D geologic modeling, (5) 3-D reservoir simulation and (6) technology transfer. This work was scheduled for completion in Year 2. Overall, the project work is on schedule. Geoscientific reservoir characterization is essentially completed. The architecture, porosity types and heterogeneity of the reef and shoal reservoirs at Appleton and Vocation Fields have been characterized using geological and geophysical data. The study of rock-fluid interactions is near completion. Observations regarding the diagenetic processes influencing pore system development and heterogeneity in these reef and shoal reservoirs have been made. Petrophysical and engineering property characterization has been essentially completed. Porosity and permeability data at Appleton and Vocation Fields have been analyzed, and well performance analysis has been conducted. Data integration is up to date, in that, the geological, geophysical, petrophysical and engineering data collected to date for Appleton and Vocation Fields have been compiled into a fieldwide digital database. 3-D geologic modeling of the structures and reservoirs at Appleton and Vocation Fields has been completed. The model represents an integration of geological, petrophysical and seismic data. 3-D reservoir simulation of the reservoirs at Appleton and Vocation Fields has been completed. The 3-D geologic model served as the framework for the simulations. A technology workshop on reservoir characterization and modeling at Appleton and Vocation Fields was conducted to transfer the results of the project to the petroleum industry.« less

A Comprehensive Numerical Model for Simulating Fluid Transport in Nanopores

PubMed Central

Zhang, Yuan; Yu, Wei; Sepehrnoori, Kamy; Di, Yuan

2017-01-01

Since a large amount of nanopores exist in tight oil reservoirs, fluid transport in nanopores is complex due to large capillary pressure. Recent studies only focus on the effect of nanopore confinement on single-well performance with simple planar fractures in tight oil reservoirs. Its impacts on multi-well performance with complex fracture geometries have not been reported. In this study, a numerical model was developed to investigate the effect of confined phase behavior on cumulative oil and gas production of four horizontal wells with different fracture geometries. Its pore sizes were divided into five regions based on nanopore size distribution. Then, fluid properties were evaluated under different levels of capillary pressure using Peng-Robinson equation of state. Afterwards, an efficient approach of Embedded Discrete Fracture Model (EDFM) was applied to explicitly model hydraulic and natural fractures in the reservoirs. Finally, three fracture geometries, i.e. non-planar hydraulic fractures, non-planar hydraulic fractures with one set natural fractures, and non-planar hydraulic fractures with two sets natural fractures, are evaluated. The multi-well performance with confined phase behavior is analyzed with permeabilities of 0.01 md and 0.1 md. This work improves the analysis of capillarity effect on multi-well performance with complex fracture geometries in tight oil reservoirs. PMID:28091599

Complementary hydro-mechanical coupled finite/discrete element and microseismic modelling to predict hydraulic fracture propagation in tight shale reservoirs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Profit, Matthew; Dutko, Martin; Yu, Jianguo; Cole, Sarah; Angus, Doug; Baird, Alan

2016-04-01

This paper presents a novel approach to predict the propagation of hydraulic fractures in tight shale reservoirs. Many hydraulic fracture modelling schemes assume that the fracture direction is pre-seeded in the problem domain discretisation. This is a severe limitation as the reservoir often contains large numbers of pre-existing fractures that strongly influence the direction of the propagating fracture. To circumvent these shortcomings, a new fracture modelling treatment is proposed where the introduction of discrete fracture surfaces is based on new and dynamically updated geometrical entities rather than the topology of the underlying spatial discretisation. Hydraulic fracturing is an inherently coupled engineering problem with interactions between fluid flow and fracturing when the stress state of the reservoir rock attains a failure criterion. This work follows a staggered hydro-mechanical coupled finite/discrete element approach to capture the key interplay between fluid pressure and fracture growth. In field practice, the fracture growth is hidden from the design engineer and microseismicity is often used to infer hydraulic fracture lengths and directions. Microseismic output can also be computed from changes of the effective stress in the geomechanical model and compared against field microseismicity. A number of hydraulic fracture numerical examples are presented to illustrate the new technology.

A Comprehensive Numerical Model for Simulating Fluid Transport in Nanopores

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yuan; Yu, Wei; Sepehrnoori, Kamy; di, Yuan

2017-01-01

Since a large amount of nanopores exist in tight oil reservoirs, fluid transport in nanopores is complex due to large capillary pressure. Recent studies only focus on the effect of nanopore confinement on single-well performance with simple planar fractures in tight oil reservoirs. Its impacts on multi-well performance with complex fracture geometries have not been reported. In this study, a numerical model was developed to investigate the effect of confined phase behavior on cumulative oil and gas production of four horizontal wells with different fracture geometries. Its pore sizes were divided into five regions based on nanopore size distribution. Then, fluid properties were evaluated under different levels of capillary pressure using Peng-Robinson equation of state. Afterwards, an efficient approach of Embedded Discrete Fracture Model (EDFM) was applied to explicitly model hydraulic and natural fractures in the reservoirs. Finally, three fracture geometries, i.e. non-planar hydraulic fractures, non-planar hydraulic fractures with one set natural fractures, and non-planar hydraulic fractures with two sets natural fractures, are evaluated. The multi-well performance with confined phase behavior is analyzed with permeabilities of 0.01 md and 0.1 md. This work improves the analysis of capillarity effect on multi-well performance with complex fracture geometries in tight oil reservoirs.

Climate Change Impacts on Stream Temperature in Regulated River Systems: A Case Study in the Southeastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Y.; Niemeyer, R. J.; Zhang, X.; Yearsley, J. R.; Voisin, N.; Nijssen, B.

2017-12-01

Climate change and associated changes in air temperature and precipitation are projected to impact natural water resources quantity, quality and timing. In the past century, over 280 major dams were built in the Southeastern United States (SEUS) (GRanD database). Regulation of the river system greatly alters natural streamflow as well as stream temperature. Understanding the impacts of climate change on regulated systems, particularly within the context of the Clean Water Act, can inform stakeholders how to maintain and adapt water operations (e.g. regulation, withdrawals). In this study, we use a new modeling framework to study climate change impacts on stream temperatures of a regulated river system. We simulate runoff with the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macroscale hydrological model, regulated streamflow and reservoir operations with a large-scale river routing-reservoir model (MOSART-WM), and stream temperature using the River Basin Model (RBM). We enhanced RBM with a two-layer thermal stratification reservoir module. This modeling framework captures both the impact of reservoir regulation on streamflow and the reservoir stratification effects on downstream temperatures. We evaluate changes in flow and stream temperatures based on climate projections from two representative concentration pathways (RCPs; RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). We simulate river temperature with meteorological forcings that have been downscaled with the Multivariate Constructed Analogs (MACA) method. We are specifically interested in analyzing extreme periods during which stream temperature exceeds water quality standards. In this study, we focus on identifying whether these extreme temperature periods coincide with low flows, and whether the frequency and duration of these operationally-relevant periods will increase under future climate change.

Future water supply and demand in response to climate change and agricultural expansion in Texas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, K.; Zhou, T.; Gao, H.; Huang, M.

2016-12-01

With ongoing global environmental change and an increasing population, it is challenging (to say the least) to understand the complex interactions of irrigation and reservoir systems. Irrigation is critical to agricultural production and food security, and is a vital component of Texas' agricultural economy. Agricultural irrigation currently accounts for about 60% of total water demand in Texas, and recent occurrences of severe droughts has brought attention to the availability and use of water in the future. In this study, we aim to assess future agricultural irrigation water demand, and to estimate how changes in the fraction of crop irrigated land will affect future water availability in Texas, which has the largest farm area and the highest value of livestock production in the United States. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, which has been calibrated and validated over major Texas river basins during the historical period, is employed for this study. The VIC model, coupling with an irrigation scheme and a reservoir module, is adopted to simulate the water management and regulations. The evolution on agricultural land is also considered in the model as a changing fraction of crop for each grid cell. The reservoir module is calibrated and validated based on the historical (1915-2011) storage records of major reservoirs in Texas. The model is driven by statistically downscaled climate projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model ensembles at a spatial resolution of 1/8°. The lowest (RCP 2.6) and highest (RC P8.5) greenhouse-gas concentration scenarios are adopted for future projections to provide an estimate of uncertainty bounds. We expect that our results will be helpful to assist decision making related to reservoir operations and agricultural water planning for Texas under future climate and environmental changes.

Evaluating Bangestan reservoirs and targeting productive zones in Dezful embayment of Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nasseri, Aynur; Jafar Mohammadzadeh, Mohammad; HashemTabatabaee, Seyyed

2016-12-01

A progressive stepwise procedure was adopted to evaluate the main reservoirs of the Bangestan group in a southwestern oil field of Iran. In order to identify productive zones, the results of lithofacies and well tops correlation were assessed using well log and core data. Accordingly the resulting zonation based on lithofacies revealed inaccurate results. Therefore, in order to limit the uncertainty of zonation, well tops correlations were considered. For this purpose, boundaries of reservoirs were precisely defined and well logs correlation was carried out based on geological information and full set logs. The resulting well tops correlation indicates the presence of several reservoirs such as Ilam and Sarvak formations, and each of these has several zones. Among them, the Ilam formation is recognized as the best reservoir in the field and the Sarvak formation in the second priority for oil production. Due to changes in the facies trend of the Sarvak formation, more than Ilam, the Sarvak formation was mostly considered in this study. Subsequently the Ilam formation was divided into four zones, among them (Ilam-Upper, Ilam- Main, Ilam-Poor) were identified as the oil reservoir units. Similarly, the Sarvak formation was also divided into 11 units, where the Sarvak-L2b unit was identified as the oil-bearing reservoir in the formation. Furthermore, in order to contribute for better analysis of the depositional environment and to improve the understanding of its lateral and vertical variations, 3D modeling of reservoir units was established, which lead to limit the uncertainty in evaluation. Based on the well correlation results, deep and thickness maps, porosity, water saturation and the hydrocarbon column assessments were prepared, in addition the distribution of petrophysical parameters was also evaluated. Finally, an oil reserve estimation was carried out based on volumetric estimation and its corresponding distribution maps in different reservoir units of the formation were presented. This study indicates that the consecutive sequential approach to the problem, by self controlling the process, lead to the detection of the Sarvak-L2b unit as one of the productive zones in the field. This zone also indicates favorable conditions for high productivity in central areas of the field where the reservoir has a high quality for production.

Toward Automated Generation of Reservoir Water Elevation Changes From Satellite Radar Altimetry.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okeowo, M. A.; Lee, H.; Hossain, F.

2015-12-01

Until now, processing satellite radar altimetry data over inland water bodies on a large scale has been a cumbersome task primarily due to contaminated measurements from their surrounding topography. It becomes more challenging if the size of the water body is small and thus the number of available high-rate measurements from the water surface is limited. A manual removal of outliers is time consuming which limits a global generation of reservoir elevation profiles. This has limited a global study of lakes and reservoir elevation profiles for monitoring storage changes and hydrologic modeling. We have proposed a new method to automatically generate a time-series information from raw satellite radar altimetry without user intervention. With this method, scientist with little knowledge of altimetry can now independently process radar altimetry for diverse purposes. The method is based on K-means clustering, backscatter coefficient and statistical analysis of the dataset for outlier detection. The result of this method will be validated using in-situ gauges from US, Indus and Bangladesh reservoirs. In addition, a sensitivity analysis will be done to ascertain the limitations of this algorithm based on the surrounding topography, and the length of altimetry track overlap with the lake/reservoir. ­­ Finally, a reservoir storage change will be estimated on the study sites using MODIS and Landsat water classification for estimating the area of reservoir and the height will be estimated using Jason-2 and SARAL/Altika satellites.

Estimation of anisotropy parameters in organic-rich shale: Rock physics forward modeling approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Herawati, Ida, E-mail: ida.herawati@students.itb.ac.id; Winardhi, Sonny; Priyono, Awali

Anisotropy analysis becomes an important step in processing and interpretation of seismic data. One of the most important things in anisotropy analysis is anisotropy parameter estimation which can be estimated using well data, core data or seismic data. In seismic data, anisotropy parameter calculation is generally based on velocity moveout analysis. However, the accuracy depends on data quality, available offset, and velocity moveout picking. Anisotropy estimation using seismic data is needed to obtain wide coverage of particular layer anisotropy. In anisotropic reservoir, analysis of anisotropy parameters also helps us to better understand the reservoir characteristics. Anisotropy parameters, especially ε, aremore » related to rock property and lithology determination. Current research aims to estimate anisotropy parameter from seismic data and integrate well data with case study in potential shale gas reservoir. Due to complexity in organic-rich shale reservoir, extensive study from different disciplines is needed to understand the reservoir. Shale itself has intrinsic anisotropy caused by lamination of their formed minerals. In order to link rock physic with seismic response, it is necessary to build forward modeling in organic-rich shale. This paper focuses on studying relationship between reservoir properties such as clay content, porosity and total organic content with anisotropy. Organic content which defines prospectivity of shale gas can be considered as solid background or solid inclusion or both. From the forward modeling result, it is shown that organic matter presence increases anisotropy in shale. The relationships between total organic content and other seismic properties such as acoustic impedance and Vp/Vs are also presented.« less

A seismological model for earthquakes induced by fluid extraction from a subsurface reservoir

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bourne, S. J.; Oates, S. J.; van Elk, J.; Doornhof, D.

2014-12-01

A seismological model is developed for earthquakes induced by subsurface reservoir volume changes. The approach is based on the work of Kostrov () and McGarr () linking total strain to the summed seismic moment in an earthquake catalog. We refer to the fraction of the total strain expressed as seismic moment as the strain partitioning function, α. A probability distribution for total seismic moment as a function of time is derived from an evolving earthquake catalog. The moment distribution is taken to be a Pareto Sum Distribution with confidence bounds estimated using approximations given by Zaliapin et al. (). In this way available seismic moment is expressed in terms of reservoir volume change and hence compaction in the case of a depleting reservoir. The Pareto Sum Distribution for moment and the Pareto Distribution underpinning the Gutenberg-Richter Law are sampled using Monte Carlo methods to simulate synthetic earthquake catalogs for subsequent estimation of seismic ground motion hazard. We demonstrate the method by applying it to the Groningen gas field. A compaction model for the field calibrated using various geodetic data allows reservoir strain due to gas extraction to be expressed as a function of both spatial position and time since the start of production. Fitting with a generalized logistic function gives an empirical expression for the dependence of α on reservoir compaction. Probability density maps for earthquake event locations can then be calculated from the compaction maps. Predicted seismic moment is shown to be strongly dependent on planned gas production.

Evaluating and optimizing the operation of the hydropower system in the Upper Yellow River: A general LINGO-based integrated framework.

PubMed

Si, Yuan; Li, Xiang; Yin, Dongqin; Liu, Ronghua; Wei, Jiahua; Huang, Yuefei; Li, Tiejian; Liu, Jiahong; Gu, Shenglong; Wang, Guangqian

2018-01-01

The hydropower system in the Upper Yellow River (UYR), one of the largest hydropower bases in China, plays a vital role in the energy structure of the Qinghai Power Grid. Due to management difficulties, there is still considerable room for improvement in the joint operation of this system. This paper presents a general LINGO-based integrated framework to study the operation of the UYR hydropower system. The framework is easy to use for operators with little experience in mathematical modeling, takes full advantage of LINGO's capabilities (such as its solving capacity and multi-threading ability), and packs its three layers (the user layer, the coordination layer, and the base layer) together into an integrated solution that is robust and efficient and represents an effective tool for data/scenario management and analysis. The framework is general and can be easily transferred to other hydropower systems with minimal effort, and it can be extended as the base layer is enriched. The multi-objective model that represents the trade-off between power quantity (i.e., maximum energy production) and power reliability (i.e., firm output) of hydropower operation has been formulated. With equivalent transformations, the optimization problem can be solved by the nonlinear programming (NLP) solvers embedded in the LINGO software, such as the General Solver, the Multi-start Solver, and the Global Solver. Both simulation and optimization are performed to verify the model's accuracy and to evaluate the operation of the UYR hydropower system. A total of 13 hydropower plants currently in operation are involved, including two pivotal storage reservoirs on the Yellow River, which are the Longyangxia Reservoir and the Liujiaxia Reservoir. Historical hydrological data from multiple years (2000-2010) are provided as input to the model for analysis. The results are as follows. 1) Assuming that the reservoirs are all in operation (in fact, some reservoirs were not operational or did not collect all of the relevant data during the study period), the energy production is estimated as 267.7, 357.5, and 358.3×108 KWh for the Qinghai Power Grid during dry, normal, and wet years, respectively. 2) Assuming that the hydropower system is operated jointly, the firm output can reach 3110 MW (reliability of 100%) and 3510 MW (reliability of 90%). Moreover, a decrease in energy production from the Longyangxia Reservoir can bring about a very large increase in firm output from the hydropower system. 3) The maximum energy production can reach 297.7, 363.9, and 411.4×108 KWh during dry, normal, and wet years, respectively. The trade-off curve between maximum energy production and firm output is also provided for reference.

Process-based model with flood control measures towards more realistic global flood modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Q.; Zhang, X.; Wang, Y.; Mu, M.; Lv, A.; Li, Z.

2017-12-01

In the profoundly human-influenced era, the Anthropocene, increased amount of land was developed in flood plains and many flood control measures were implemented to protect people and infrastructures placed in the flood-prone areas. These human influences (for example, dams and dykes) have altered peak streamflow and flood risk, and are already an integral part of flood. However, most of the process-based flood models have yet to taken into account the human influences. In this study, we used a hydrological model together with an advanced hydrodynamic model to assess flood risk at the Baiyangdian catchment. The Baiyangdian Lake is the largest shallow freshwater lake in North China, and it was used as a flood storage area in the past. A new development hub for the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei economic triangle, namely the Xiongan new area, was recently established in the flood-prone area around the lake. The shuttle radar topography mission (SRTM) digital elevation model (DEMs) was used to parameterize the hydrodynamic model simulation, and the inundation estimates were compared with published flood maps and observed inundation area during the extreme historical flood events. A simple scheme was carried out to consider the impacts of flood control measures, including the reservoirs in the headwaters and the dykes to be built. By comparing model simulations with and without the influences of flood control measures, we demonstrated the importance of human influences in altering the inundated area and depth under design flood conditions. Based on the SRTM DEM and dam and reservoir data in the Global Reservoir and Dam (GRanD) database, we further discuss the potential to develop a global flood model with human influences.

Assessing Water Level Changes in Lake, Reservoir, Wetland, and River Systems with Remote Sensing Tools and Hydrological Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ricko, M.; Birkett, C. M.; Beckley, B. D.

2017-12-01

The NASA/USDA Global Reservoir and Lake Monitor (G-REALM) offers multi-mission satellite radar altimetry derived surface water level products for a subset of large reservoirs, lakes, and wetlands. These products complement the in situ networks by providing stage information at un-gauged locations, and filling existing data gaps. The availability of both satellite-based rainfall (e.g., TRMM, GPCP) and surface water level products offers great opportunities to estimate and monitor additional hydrologic properties of the lake/reservoir systems. A simple water balance model relating the net freshwater flux over a catchment basin to the lake/reservoir level has been previously utilized (Ricko et al., 2011). The applicability of this approach enables the construction of a longer record of surface water level, i.e. improving the climate data record. As instrument technology and data availability evolve, this method can be used to estimate the water level of a greater number of water bodies, and a greater number of much smaller targets. In addition, such information can improve water balance estimation in different lake, reservoir, wetland, and river systems, and be very useful for assessment of improved prediction of surface water availability. Connections to climatic variations on inter-annual to inter-decadal time-scales are explored here, with a focus on a future ability to predict changes in storage volume for water resources or natural hazards concerns.

Global Assessment of Exploitable Surface Reservoir Storage under Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, L.; Parkinson, S.; Gidden, M.; Byers, E.; Satoh, Y.; Riahi, K.

2016-12-01

Surface water reservoirs provide us with reliable water supply systems, hydropower generation, flood control, and recreation services. Reliable reservoirs can be robust measures for water security and can help smooth out challenging seasonal variability of river flows. Yet, reservoirs also cause flow fragmentation in rivers and can lead to flooding of upstream areas, thereby displacing existing land-uses and ecosystems. The anticipated population growth, land use and climate change in many regions globally suggest a critical need to assess the potential for appropriate reservoir capacity that can balance rising demands with long-term water security. In this research, we assessed exploitable reservoir potential under climate change and human development constraints by deriving storage-yield relationships for 235 river basins globally. The storage-yield relationships map the amount of storage capacity required to meet a given water demand based on a 30-year inflow sequence. Runoff data is simulated with an ensemble of Global Hydrological Models (GHMs) for each of five bias-corrected general circulation models (GCMs) under four climate change pathways. These data are used to define future 30-year inflows in each river basin for time period between 2010 and 2080. The calculated capacity is then combined with geographical information of environmental and human development exclusion zones to further limit the storage capacity expansion potential in each basin. We investigated the reliability of reservoir potentials across different climate change scenarios and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) to identify river basins where reservoir expansion will be particularly challenging. Preliminary results suggest large disparities in reservoir potential across basins: some basins have already approached exploitable reserves, while some others display abundant potential. Exclusions zones pose significant impact on the amount of actual exploitable storage and firm yields worldwide: 30% of reservoir potential would be unavailable because of land occupation by environmental and human development. Results from this study will help decision makers to understand the reliability of infrastructure systems particularly sensitive to future water availability.

Natural and human drivers of salinity in reservoirs and their implications in water supply operation through a Decision Support System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Contreras, Eva; Gómez-Beas, Raquel; Linares-Sáez, Antonio

2016-04-01

Salt can be a problem when is originally in aquifers or when it dissolves in groundwater and comes to the ground surface or flows into streams. The problem increases in lakes hydraulically connected with aquifers affecting water quality. This issue is even more alarming when water resources are used for urban and irrigation supply and water quantity and quality restrict that water demand. This work shows a data based and physical modeling approach in the Guadalhorce reservoir, located in southern Spain. This water body receives salt contribution from mainly groundwater flow, getting salinity values in the reservoir from 3500 to 5500 μScm-1. Moreover, Guadalhorce reservoir is part of a complex system of reservoirs fed from the Guadalhorce River that supplies all urban, irrigation, tourism, energy and ecology water uses, which makes that implementation and validation of methods and tools for smart water management is required. Meteorological, hydrological and water quality data from several monitoring networks and data sources, with both historical and real time data during a 40-years period, were used to analyze the impact salinity. On the other hand, variables that mainly depend on the dam operation, such as reservoir water level and water outflow, were also analyzed to understand how they affect to salinity in depth and time. Finally surface and groundwater inflows to the reservoir were evaluated through a physically based hydrological model to forecast when the major contributions take place. Reservoir water level and surface and groundwater inflows were found to be the main drivers of salinity in the reservoir. When reservoir water level is high, daily water inflow around 0.4 hm3 causes changes in salinity (both drop and rise) up to 500 μScm-1, but no significant changes are found when water level falls 2-3 m. However the gradual water outflows due to dam operation and consequent decrease in reservoir water levels makes that, after dry periods, salinity changes from 3800 to 5100 μScm-1 in the deepest layers are found with a similar daily water inflow. On the other hand, when reservoir water level is low, salinity increases around 1000 μScm-1 are found with a 2 m water level falling. In view of the influence of water level in the reservoir dynamics, this factor should be considered when dam operation decisions are taken by managers in terms of satisfying the water demand. The results will be implemented in a Decision Support System that is being displayed in the Guadalhorce River and which includes prediction of water quantity and quality in the reservoir in terms of salinity, involving water level and water inflow forecasting as the main factors to control the state of the reservoir and therefore with implications in water management. This methodology could be implemented in other reservoirs with high salinity and be adapted to other substances (such as nutrients and heavy metals) associated to water inflow in water bodies where water quality and quantity are driven by human decisions factors besides natural factors such as floods and dynamics of flows in the reservoir.

Study of cyanotoxins presence from experimental cyanobacteria concentrations using a new data mining methodology based on multivariate adaptive regression splines in Trasona reservoir (Northern Spain).

PubMed

Garcia Nieto, P J; Sánchez Lasheras, F; de Cos Juez, F J; Alonso Fernández, J R

2011-11-15

There is an increasing need to describe cyanobacteria blooms since some cyanobacteria produce toxins, termed cyanotoxins. These latter can be toxic and dangerous to humans as well as other animals and life in general. It must be remarked that the cyanobacteria are reproduced explosively under certain conditions. This results in algae blooms, which can become harmful to other species if the cyanobacteria involved produce cyanotoxins. In this research work, the evolution of cyanotoxins in Trasona reservoir (Principality of Asturias, Northern Spain) was studied with success using the data mining methodology based on multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) technique. The results of the present study are two-fold. On one hand, the importance of the different kind of cyanobacteria over the presence of cyanotoxins in the reservoir is presented through the MARS model and on the other hand a predictive model able to forecast the possible presence of cyanotoxins in a short term was obtained. The agreement of the MARS model with experimental data confirmed the good performance of the same one. Finally, conclusions of this innovative research are exposed. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A simulation-optimization model for water-resources management, Santa Barbara, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nishikawa, Tracy

1998-01-01

In times of drought, the local water supplies of the city of Santa Barbara, California, are insufficient to satisfy water demand. In response, the city has built a seawater desalination plant and gained access to imported water in 1997. Of primary concern to the city is delivering water from the various sources at a minimum cost while satisfying water demand and controlling seawater intrusion that might result from the overpumping of ground water. A simulation-optimization model has been developed for the optimal management of Santa Barbara?s water resources. The objective is to minimize the cost of water supply while satisfying various physical and institutional constraints such as meeting water demand, maintaining minimum hydraulic heads at selected sites, and not exceeding water-delivery or pumping capacities. The model is formulated as a linear programming problem with monthly management periods and a total planning horizon of 5 years. The decision variables are water deliveries from surface water (Gibraltar Reservoir, Cachuma Reservoir, Cachuma Reservoir cumulative annual carryover, Mission Tunnel, State Water Project, and desalinated seawater) and ground water (13 production wells). The state variables are hydraulic heads. Basic assumptions for all simulations are that (1) the cost of water varies with source but is fixed over time, and (2) only existing or planned city wells are considered; that is, the construction of new wells is not allowed. The drought of 1947?51 is Santa Barbara?s worst drought on record, and simulated surface-water supplies for this period were used as a basis for testing optimal management of current water resources under drought conditions. Assumptions that were made for this base case include a head constraint equal to sea level at the coastal nodes; Cachuma Reservoir carryover of 3,000 acre-feet per year, with a maximum carryover of 8,277 acre-feet; a maximum annual demand of 15,000 acre-feet; and average monthly capacities for the Cachuma and the Gibraltar Reservoirs. The base-case results indicate that water demands can be met, with little water required from the most expensive water source (desalinated seawater), at a total cost of $5.56 million over the 5-year planning horizon. The simulation model has drains, which operate as nonlinear functions of heads and could affect the model solutions. However, numerical tests show that the drains have little effect on the optimal solution. Sensitivity analyses on the base case yield the following results: If allowable Cachuma Reservoir carryover is decreased by about 50 percent, then costs increase by about 14 percent; if the peak demand is decreased by 7 percent, then costs will decrease by about 14 percent; if the head constraints are loosened to -30 feet, then the costs decrease by about 18 percent; if the heads are constrained such that a zero hydraulic gradient condition occurs at the ocean boundary, then the optimization problem does not have a solution; if the capacity of the desalination plant is constrained to zero acre-feet, then the cost increases by about 2 percent; and if the carryover of State Water Project water is implemented, then the cost decreases by about 0.5 percent. Four additional monthly diversion distribution scenarios for the reservoirs were tested: average monthly Cachuma Reservoir deliveries with the actual (scenario 1) and proposed (scenario 2) monthly distributions of Gibraltar Reservoir water, and variable monthly Cachuma Reservoir deliveries with the actual (scenario 3) and proposed (scenario 4) monthly distributions of Gibraltar Reservoir water. Scenario 1 resulted in a total cost of about $7.55 million, scenario 2 resulted in a total cost of about $5.07 million, and scenarios 3 and 4 resulted in a total cost of about $4.53 million. Sensitivities of the scenarios 1 and 2 to desalination-plant capacity and State Water Project water carryover were tested. The scenario 1 sensitivity analysis indicated that incorpo

Analysis and application of classification methods of complex carbonate reservoirs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xiongyan; Qin, Ruibao; Ping, Haitao; Wei, Dan; Liu, Xiaomei

2018-06-01

There are abundant carbonate reservoirs from the Cenozoic to Mesozoic era in the Middle East. Due to variation in sedimentary environment and diagenetic process of carbonate reservoirs, several porosity types coexist in carbonate reservoirs. As a result, because of the complex lithologies and pore types as well as the impact of microfractures, the pore structure is very complicated. Therefore, it is difficult to accurately calculate the reservoir parameters. In order to accurately evaluate carbonate reservoirs, based on the pore structure evaluation of carbonate reservoirs, the classification methods of carbonate reservoirs are analyzed based on capillary pressure curves and flow units. Based on the capillary pressure curves, although the carbonate reservoirs can be classified, the relationship between porosity and permeability after classification is not ideal. On the basis of the flow units, the high-precision functional relationship between porosity and permeability after classification can be established. Therefore, the carbonate reservoirs can be quantitatively evaluated based on the classification of flow units. In the dolomite reservoirs, the average absolute error of calculated permeability decreases from 15.13 to 7.44 mD. Similarly, the average absolute error of calculated permeability of limestone reservoirs is reduced from 20.33 to 7.37 mD. Only by accurately characterizing pore structures and classifying reservoir types, reservoir parameters could be calculated accurately. Therefore, characterizing pore structures and classifying reservoir types are very important to accurate evaluation of complex carbonate reservoirs in the Middle East.

Modelling Pre-eruptive Progressive Damage in Basaltic Volcanoes: Consequences for the Pre-eruptive Process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Got, J. L.; Amitrano, D.; Carrier, A.; Marsan, D.; Jouanne, F.; Vogfjord, K. S.

2017-12-01

At Grimsvötn volcano, high-quality earthquake and continuous GPS data were recorded by the Icelandic Meteorological Office during its 2004-2011 inter-eruptive period and exhibited remarkable patterns : acceleration of the cumulated earthquake number, and a 2-year exponential decrease in displacement rate followed by a 4-year constant inflation rate. We proposed a model with one magma reservoir in a non-linear elastic damaging edifice, with incompressible magma and a constant pressure at the base of the magma conduit. We first modelled seismicity rate and damage as a function of time, and show that Kachanov's elastic brittle damage law may be used to express the decrease of the effective shear modulus with time. We then derived simple analytical expressions for the magma reservoir overpressure and the surface displacement as a function of time. We got a very good fit of the seismicity and surface displacement data by adjusting only three phenomenological parameters and computed magma reservoir overpressure, magma flow and strain power as a function of time. Overpressure decrease is controlled by damage and shear modulus decrease. Displacement increases, although overpressure is decreasing, because shear modulus decreases more than overpressure. Normalized strain power reaches a maximum 0.25 value. This maximum is a physical limit, after which the elasticity laws are no longer valid, earthquakes cluster, cumulative number of earthquakes departs from the model. State variable extrema provide four reference times that may be used to assess the mechanical state and dynamics of the volcanic edifice. We also performed the spatial modelling of the progressive damage and strain localization around a pressurized magma reservoir. We used Kachanov's damage law and finite element modelling of an initially elastic volcanic edifice pressurized by a spherical magma reservoir, with a constant pressure in the reservoir and various external boundary conditions. At each node of the model, Young's modulus is decreased if deviatoric stress locally reaches the Mohr-Coulomb plastic threshold. For a compressive horizontal stress, the result shows a complex strain localization pattern, showing reverse and normal faulting very similar to what is obtained from analog modelling and observed at volcanic resurgent domes.

Rainfall-Runoff and Water-Balance Models for Management of the Fena Valley Reservoir, Guam

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yeung, Chiu W.

2005-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey's Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) and a generalized water-balance model were calibrated and verified for use in estimating future availability of water in the Fena Valley Reservoir in response to various combinations of water withdrawal rates and rainfall conditions. Application of PRMS provides a physically based method for estimating runoff from the Fena Valley Watershed during the annual dry season, which extends from January through May. Runoff estimates from the PRMS are used as input to the water-balance model to estimate change in water levels and storage in the reservoir. A previously published model was calibrated for the Maulap and Imong River watersheds using rainfall data collected outside of the watershed. That model was applied to the Almagosa River watershed by transferring calibrated parameters and coefficients because information on daily diversions at the Almagosa Springs upstream of the gaging station was not available at the time. Runoff from the ungaged land area was not modeled. For this study, the availability of Almagosa Springs diversion data allowed the calibration of PRMS for the Almagosa River watershed. Rainfall data collected at the Almagosa rain gage since 1992 also provided better estimates of rainfall distribution in the watershed. In addition, the discontinuation of pan-evaporation data collection in 1998 required a change in the evapotranspiration estimation method used in the PRMS model. These reasons prompted the update of the PRMS for the Fena Valley Watershed. Simulated runoff volume from the PRMS compared reasonably with measured values for gaging stations on Maulap, Almagosa, and Imong Rivers, tributaries to the Fena Valley Reservoir. On the basis of monthly runoff simulation for the dry seasons included in the entire simulation period (1992-2001), the total volume of runoff can be predicted within -3.66 percent at Maulap River, within 5.37 percent at Almagosa River, and within 10.74 percent at Imong River. Month-end reservoir volumes simulated by the reservoir water-balance model for both calibration and verification periods compared closely with measured reservoir volumes. Errors for the calibration periods ranged from 4.51 percent [208.7 acre-feet (acre-ft) or 68.0 million gallons (Mgal)] to -5.90 percent (-317.8 acre-ft or -103.6 Mgal). For the verification periods, errors ranged from 1.69 percent (103.5 acre-ft or 33.7 Mgal) to -4.60 percent (-178.7 acre-ft or -58.2 Mgal). Monthly simulation bias ranged from -0.19 percent for the calibration period to -0.98 percent for the verification period; relative error ranged from -0.37 to -1.12 percent, respectively. Relatively small bias indicated that the model did not consistently overestimate or underestimate reservoir volume.

Integrating a reservoir regulation scheme into a spatially distributed hydrological model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhao, Gang; Gao, Huilin; Naz, Bibi S.

2016-12-01

During the past several decades, numerous reservoirs have been built across the world for a variety of purposes such as flood control, irrigation, municipal/industrial water supplies, and hydropower generation. Consequently, natural streamflow timing and magnitude have been altered significantly by reservoir operations. In addition, the hydrological cycle can be modified by land use/land cover and climate changes. To understand the fine scale feedback between hydrological processes and water management decisions, a distributed hydrological model embedded with a reservoir component is of desire. In this study, a multi-purpose reservoir module with predefined complex operational rules was integrated into the Distributed Hydrologymore » Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM). Conditional operating rules, which are designed to reduce flood risk and enhance water supply reliability, were adopted in this module. The performance of the integrated model was tested over the upper Brazos River Basin in Texas, where two U.S. Army Corps of Engineers reservoirs, Lake Whitney and Aquilla Lake, are located. The integrated DHSVM model was calibrated and validated using observed reservoir inflow, outflow, and storage data. The error statistics were summarized for both reservoirs on a daily, weekly, and monthly basis. Using the weekly reservoir storage for Lake Whitney as an example, the coefficients of determination (R2) and the Nash-Sutcliff Efficiency (NSE) are 0.85 and 0.75, respectively. These results suggest that this reservoir module has promise for use in sub-monthly hydrological simulations. Enabled with the new reservoir component, the DHSVM model provides a platform to support adaptive water resources management under the impacts of evolving anthropogenic activities and substantial environmental changes.« less

Management of Water Quantity and Quality Based on Copula for a Tributary to Miyun Reservoir, Beijing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zang, N.; Wang, X.; Liang, P.

2017-12-01

Due to the complex mutual influence between water quantity and water quality of river, it is difficult to reflect the actual characters of the tributaries to reservoir. In this study, the acceptable marginal probability distributions for water quantity and quality of reservoir inflow were calculated. A bivariate Archimedean copula was further applied to establish the joint distribution function of them. Then multiple combination scenarios of water quantity and water quality were designed to analyze their coexistence relationship and reservoir management strategies. Taking Bai river, an important tributary into the Miyun Reservoir, as a study case. The results showed that it is feasible to apply Frank copula function to describe the jointed distribution function of water quality and water quantity for Bai river. Furthermore, the monitoring of TP concentration needs to be strengthen in Bai river. This methodology can be extended to larger dimensions and is transferable to other reservoirs via establishment of models with relevant data for a particular area. Our findings help better analyzing the coexistence relationship and influence degree of the water quantity and quality of the tributary to reservoir for the purpose of water resources protection.

Offshore Storage Resource Assessment - Final Scientific/Technical Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Savage, Bill; Ozgen, Chet

The DOE developed volumetric equation for estimating Prospective Resources (CO 2 storage) in oil and gas reservoirs was utilized on each depleted field in the Federal GOM. This required assessment of the in-situ hydrocarbon fluid volumes for the fields under evaluation in order to apply the DOE equation. This project utilized public data from the U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) Reserves database and from a well reputed, large database (250,000+ wells) of GOM well and production data marketed by IHS, Inc. IHS interpreted structure map files were also accessed for a limited number ofmore » fields. The databases were used along with geological and petrophysical software to identify depleted oil and gas fields in the Federal GOM region. BOEM arranged for access by the project team to proprietary reservoir level maps under an NDA. Review of the BOEM’s Reserves database as of December 31, 2013 indicated that 675 fields in the region were depleted. NITEC identified and rank these 675 fields containing 3,514 individual reservoirs based on BOEM’s estimated OOIP or OGIP values available in the Reserves database. The estimated BOEM OOIP or OGIP values for five fields were validated by an independent evaluation using available petrophysical, geologic and engineering data in the databases. Once this validation was successfully completed, the BOEM ranked list was used to calculate the estimated CO 2 storage volume for each field/reservoir using the DOE CO 2 Resource Estimate Equation. This calculation assumed a range for the CO 2 efficiency factor in the equation, as it was not known at that point in time. NITEC then utilize reservoir simulation to further enhance and refine the DOE equation estimated range of CO 2 storage volumes. NITEC used a purpose built, publically available, 4-component, compositional reservoir simulator developed under funding from DOE (DE-FE0006015) to assess CO 2-EOR and CO 2 storage in 73 fields/461 reservoirs. This simulator was fast and easy to utilize and provided a valuable enhanced assessment and refinement of the estimated CO 2 storage volume for each reservoir simulated. The user interface was expanded to allow for calculation of a probability based assessment of the CO 2 storage volume based on typical uncertainties in operating conditions and reservoir properties during the CO 2 injection period. This modeling of the CO 2 storage estimates for the simulated reservoirs resulted in definition of correlations applicable to all reservoir types (a refined DOE equation) which can be used for predictive purposes using available public data. Application of the correlations to the 675 depleted fields yielded a total CO 2 storage capacity of 4,748 MM tons. The CO 2 storage assessments were supplemented with simulation modeling of eleven (11) oil reservoirs that quantified the change in the stored CO 2 storage volume with the addition of CO 2-EOR (Enhanced Oil Recovery) production. Application of CO 2-EOR to oil reservoirs resulted in higher volumes of CO 2 storage.« less

Multiple point statistical simulation using uncertain (soft) conditional data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hansen, Thomas Mejer; Vu, Le Thanh; Mosegaard, Klaus; Cordua, Knud Skou

2018-05-01

Geostatistical simulation methods have been used to quantify spatial variability of reservoir models since the 80s. In the last two decades, state of the art simulation methods have changed from being based on covariance-based 2-point statistics to multiple-point statistics (MPS), that allow simulation of more realistic Earth-structures. In addition, increasing amounts of geo-information (geophysical, geological, etc.) from multiple sources are being collected. This pose the problem of integration of these different sources of information, such that decisions related to reservoir models can be taken on an as informed base as possible. In principle, though difficult in practice, this can be achieved using computationally expensive Monte Carlo methods. Here we investigate the use of sequential simulation based MPS simulation methods conditional to uncertain (soft) data, as a computational efficient alternative. First, it is demonstrated that current implementations of sequential simulation based on MPS (e.g. SNESIM, ENESIM and Direct Sampling) do not account properly for uncertain conditional information, due to a combination of using only co-located information, and a random simulation path. Then, we suggest two approaches that better account for the available uncertain information. The first make use of a preferential simulation path, where more informed model parameters are visited preferentially to less informed ones. The second approach involves using non co-located uncertain information. For different types of available data, these approaches are demonstrated to produce simulation results similar to those obtained by the general Monte Carlo based approach. These methods allow MPS simulation to condition properly to uncertain (soft) data, and hence provides a computationally attractive approach for integration of information about a reservoir model.

Well logging evaluation of water-flooded layers and distribution rule of remaining oil in marine sandstone reservoirs of the M oilfield in the Pearl River Mouth basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xiongyan; Qin, Ruibao; Gao, Yunfeng; Fan, Hongjun

2017-03-01

In the marine sandstone reservoirs of the M oilfield the water cut is up to 98%, while the recovery factor is only 35%. Additionally, the distribution of the remaining oil is very scattered. In order to effectively assess the potential of the remaining oil, the logging evaluation of the water-flooded layers and the distribution rule of the remaining oil are studied. Based on the log response characteristics, the water-flooded layers can be qualitatively identified. On the basis of the mercury injection experimental data of the evaluation wells, the calculation model of the initial oil saturation is built. Based on conventional logging data, the evaluation model of oil saturation is established. The difference between the initial oil saturation and the residual oil saturation can be used to quantitatively evaluate the water-flooded layers. The evaluation result of the water-flooded layers is combined with the ratio of the water-flooded wells in the marine sandstone reservoirs. As a result, the degree of water flooding in the marine sandstone reservoirs can be assessed. On the basis of structural characteristics and sedimentary environments, the horizontal and vertical water-flooding rules of the different types of reservoirs are elaborated upon, and the distribution rule of the remaining oil is disclosed. The remaining oil is mainly distributed in the high parts of the structure. The remaining oil exists in the top of the reservoirs with good physical properties while the thickness of the remaining oil ranges from 2-5 m. However, the thickness of the remaining oil of the reservoirs with poor physical properties ranges from 5-8 m. The high production of some of the drilled horizontal wells shows that the above distribution rule of the remaining oil is accurate. In the marine sandstone reservoirs of the M oilfield, the research on the well logging evaluation of the water-flooded layers and the distribution rule of the remaining oil has great practical significance to the prediction of the distribution of the remaining oil and the optimization of well locations.

Development and application of coupled system dynamics and game theory: A dynamic water conflict resolution method.

PubMed

Zomorodian, Mehdi; Lai, Sai Hin; Homayounfar, Mehran; Ibrahim, Shaliza; Pender, Gareth

2017-01-01

Conflicts over water resources can be highly dynamic and complex due to the various factors which can affect such systems, including economic, engineering, social, hydrologic, environmental and even political, as well as the inherent uncertainty involved in many of these factors. Furthermore, the conflicting behavior, preferences and goals of stakeholders can often make such conflicts even more challenging. While many game models, both cooperative and non-cooperative, have been suggested to deal with problems over utilizing and sharing water resources, most of these are based on a static viewpoint of demand points during optimization procedures. Moreover, such models are usually developed for a single reservoir system, and so are not really suitable for application to an integrated decision support system involving more than one reservoir. This paper outlines a coupled simulation-optimization modeling method based on a combination of system dynamics (SD) and game theory (GT). The method harnesses SD to capture the dynamic behavior of the water system, utilizing feedback loops between the system components in the course of the simulation. In addition, it uses GT concepts, including pure-strategy and mixed-strategy games as well as the Nash Bargaining Solution (NBS) method, to find the optimum allocation decisions over available water in the system. To test the capability of the proposed method to resolve multi-reservoir and multi-objective conflicts, two different deterministic simulation-optimization models with increasing levels of complexity were developed for the Langat River basin in Malaysia. The later is a strategic water catchment that has a range of different stakeholders and managerial bodies, which are however willing to cooperate in order to avoid unmet demand. In our first model, all water users play a dynamic pure-strategy game. The second model then adds in dynamic behaviors to reservoirs to factor in inflow uncertainty and adjust the strategies for the reservoirs using the mixed-strategy game and Markov chain methods. The two models were then evaluated against three performance indices: Reliability, Resilience and Vulnerability (R-R-V). The results showed that, while both models were well capable of dealing with conflict resolution over water resources in the Langat River basin, the second model achieved a substantially improved performance through its ability to deal with dynamicity, complexity and uncertainty in the river system.

Development and application of coupled system dynamics and game theory: A dynamic water conflict resolution method

PubMed Central

Lai, Sai Hin; Homayounfar, Mehran; Ibrahim, Shaliza; Pender, Gareth

2017-01-01

Conflicts over water resources can be highly dynamic and complex due to the various factors which can affect such systems, including economic, engineering, social, hydrologic, environmental and even political, as well as the inherent uncertainty involved in many of these factors. Furthermore, the conflicting behavior, preferences and goals of stakeholders can often make such conflicts even more challenging. While many game models, both cooperative and non-cooperative, have been suggested to deal with problems over utilizing and sharing water resources, most of these are based on a static viewpoint of demand points during optimization procedures. Moreover, such models are usually developed for a single reservoir system, and so are not really suitable for application to an integrated decision support system involving more than one reservoir. This paper outlines a coupled simulation-optimization modeling method based on a combination of system dynamics (SD) and game theory (GT). The method harnesses SD to capture the dynamic behavior of the water system, utilizing feedback loops between the system components in the course of the simulation. In addition, it uses GT concepts, including pure-strategy and mixed-strategy games as well as the Nash Bargaining Solution (NBS) method, to find the optimum allocation decisions over available water in the system. To test the capability of the proposed method to resolve multi-reservoir and multi-objective conflicts, two different deterministic simulation-optimization models with increasing levels of complexity were developed for the Langat River basin in Malaysia. The later is a strategic water catchment that has a range of different stakeholders and managerial bodies, which are however willing to cooperate in order to avoid unmet demand. In our first model, all water users play a dynamic pure-strategy game. The second model then adds in dynamic behaviors to reservoirs to factor in inflow uncertainty and adjust the strategies for the reservoirs using the mixed-strategy game and Markov chain methods. The two models were then evaluated against three performance indices: Reliability, Resilience and Vulnerability (R-R-V). The results showed that, while both models were well capable of dealing with conflict resolution over water resources in the Langat River basin, the second model achieved a substantially improved performance through its ability to deal with dynamicity, complexity and uncertainty in the river system. PMID:29216200

Predictive evaluation of size restrictions as management strategies for tennessee reservoir crappie fisheries

USGS Publications Warehouse

Isermann, D.A.; Sammons, S.M.; Bettoli, P.W.; Churchill, T.N.

2002-01-01

We evaluated the potential effect of minimum size restrictions on crappies Pomoxis spp. in 12 large Tennessee reservoirs. A Beverton-Holt equilibrium yield model was used to predict and compare the response of these fisheries to three minimum size restrictions: 178 mm (i.e., pragmatically, no size limit), 229 mm, and the current statewide limit of 254 mm. The responses of crappie fisheries to size limits differed among reservoirs and varied with rates of conditional natural mortality (CM). Based on model results, crappie fisheries fell into one of three response categories: (1) In some reservoirs (N = 5), 254-mm and 229-mm limits would benefit the fishery in terms of yield if CM were low (30%); the associated declines in the number of crappies harvested would be significant but modest when compared with those in other reservoirs. (2) In other reservoirs (N = 6), little difference in yield existed among size restrictions at low to intermediate rates of CM (30-40%). In these reservoirs, a 229-mm limit was predicted to be a more beneficial regulation than the current 254-mm limit. (3) In the remaining reservoir, Tellico, size limits negatively affected all three harvest statistics. Generally, yield was negatively affected by size limits in all populations at a CM of 50%. The number of crappies reaching 300 mm was increased by size limits in most model scenarios: however, associated declines in the total number of crappies harvested often outweighed the benefits to size structure when CM was 40% or higher. When crappie growth was fast (reaching 254 mm in less than 3 years) and CM was low (30%), size limits were most effective in balancing increases in yield and size structure against declines in the total number of crappies harvested. The variability in predicted size-limit responses observed among Tennessee reservoirs suggests that using a categorical approach to applying size limits to crappie fisheries within a state or region would likely be a more effective management strategy than implementing a single, areawide regulation.

Modelling a hydropower plant with reservoir with the micropower optimisation model (HOMER)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Canales, Fausto A.; Beluco, Alexandre; Mendes, Carlos André B.

2017-08-01

Hydropower with water accumulation is an interesting option to consider in hybrid systems, because it helps dealing with the intermittence characteristics of renewable energy resources. The software HOMER (version Legacy) is extensively used in research works related to these systems, but it does not include a specific option for modelling hydro with reservoir. This paper describes a method for modelling a hydropower plant with reservoir with HOMER by adapting an existing procedure used for modelling pumped storage. An example with two scenarios in southern Brazil is presented for illustrating and validating the method explained in this paper. The results validate the method by showing a direct correspondence between an equivalent battery and the reservoir. The refill of the reservoir, its power output as a function of the flow rate and installed hydropower capacity are effectively simulated, indicating an adequate representation of a hydropower plant with reservoir is possible with HOMER.

Data Assimilation of InSAR Surface Deformation Measurements for the Estimation of Reservoir Geomechanical Parameters in the Upper Adriatic Sedimentary Basin, Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bau, D. A.; Alzraiee, A.; Ferronato, M.; Gambolati, G.; Teatini, P.

2012-12-01

In the last decades, extensive work has been conducted to estimate land subsidence due the development of deep gas reservoirs situated in the Upper Adriatic sedimentary basin, Italy. These modeling efforts have stemmed from the development finite-element (FE) coupled reservoir-geomechanical models that can simulate the deformation due to the change in pore pressure induced by hydrocarbon production from the geological formations. However, the application of these numerical models has often been limited by the uncertainty in the hydrogeological and poro-mechanical input parameters that are necessary to simulate the impact on ground surface levels of past and/or future gas-field development scenarios. Resolving these uncertainties is of paramount importance, particularly the Northern Adriatic region, given the low elevation above the mean sea level observed along most of the coastline and in the areas surrounding the Venice Lagoon. In this work, we present a state-of-the-art data assimilation (DA) framework to incorporate measurements of displacement of the land surface obtained using Satellite Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) techniques into the response of geomechanical simulation models. In Northern Italy, InSAR measurement campaigns have been carried out over a depleted gas reservoir, referred to as "Lombardia", located at a depth of about 1200 m in the sedimentary basin of the Po River plain. In the last years, this reservoir has been used for underground gas storage and recovery (GSR). Because of the pore pressure periodical alternation produced by GSR, reservoir formations have undergone loading/unloading cycles, experiencing effective stress changes that have induced periodical variation of ground surface levels. Over the Lombardia reservoir, the pattern, magnitude and timing of time-laps land displacements both in the vertical and in the East-West directions have been acquired from 2003 until 2008. The availability of these data opens new pathways towards the improvement of current land subsidence modeling efforts. The DA framework presented here allows for merging, within an automated process, InSAR data into coupled reservoir-geomechanical model results. The framework relies upon Bayesian-based ensemble smoothing algorithms and has the potential to significantly reduce the uncertainty associated with compressibility vs. effective stress constitutive laws, as well as key geomechanical parameters characterizing the orthotropic behavior of the reservoir porous media and their spatial distribution. The DA framework is here applied using InSAR data collected over the "Lombardia" reservoir. The flexibility of smoothing algorithms is such that spatially distributed and possibly correlated measurement errors are accounted for in a relatively straightforward fashion, so that surface deformation data that are considered more reliable can be assigned a larger weight within the model calibration. A series of numerical simulation results are presented in order to assess the capabilities of the DA framework, its effectiveness, advantages and limitations.

Artificial intelligent techniques for optimizing water allocation in a reservoir watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, Fi-John; Chang, Li-Chiu; Wang, Yu-Chung

2014-05-01

This study proposes a systematical water allocation scheme that integrates system analysis with artificial intelligence techniques for reservoir operation in consideration of the great uncertainty upon hydrometeorology for mitigating droughts impacts on public and irrigation sectors. The AI techniques mainly include a genetic algorithm and adaptive-network based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). We first derive evaluation diagrams through systematic interactive evaluations on long-term hydrological data to provide a clear simulation perspective of all possible drought conditions tagged with their corresponding water shortages; then search the optimal reservoir operating histogram using genetic algorithm (GA) based on given demands and hydrological conditions that can be recognized as the optimal base of input-output training patterns for modelling; and finally build a suitable water allocation scheme through constructing an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) model with a learning of the mechanism between designed inputs (water discount rates and hydrological conditions) and outputs (two scenarios: simulated and optimized water deficiency levels). The effectiveness of the proposed approach is tested on the operation of the Shihmen Reservoir in northern Taiwan for the first paddy crop in the study area to assess the water allocation mechanism during drought periods. We demonstrate that the proposed water allocation scheme significantly and substantially avails water managers of reliably determining a suitable discount rate on water supply for both irrigation and public sectors, and thus can reduce the drought risk and the compensation amount induced by making restrictions on agricultural use water.

1D Thermal-Hydraulic-Chemical (THC) Reactive transport modeling for deep geothermal systems: A case study of Groß Schönebeck reservoir, Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Driba, D. L.; De Lucia, M.; Peiffer, S.

2014-12-01

Fluid-rock interactions in geothermal reservoirs are driven by the state of disequilibrium that persists among solid and solutes due to changing temperature and pressure. During operation of enhanced geothermal systems, injection of cooled water back into the reservoir disturbs the initial thermodynamic equilibrium between the reservoir and its geothermal fluid, which may induce modifications in permeability through changes in porosity and pore space geometry, consequently bringing about several impairments to the overall system.Modeling of fluid-rock interactions induced by injection of cold brine into Groß Schönebeck geothermal reservoir system situated in the Rotliegend sandstone at 4200m depth have been done by coupling geochemical modeling Code Phreeqc with OpenGeoSys. Through batch modeling the re-evaluation of the measured hydrochemical composition of the brine has been done using Quintessa databases, the results from the calculation indicate that a mineral phases comprising of K-feldspar, hematite, Barite, Calcite and Dolomite was found to match the hypothesis of equilibrium with the formation fluid, Reducing conditions are presumed in the model (pe = -3.5) in order to match the amount of observed dissolved Fe and thus considered as initial state for the reactive transport modeling. based on a measured composition of formation fluids and the predominant mineralogical assemblage of the host rock, a preliminary 1D Reactive transport modeling (RTM) was run with total time set to 30 years; results obtained for the initial simulation revealed that during this period, no significant change is evident for K-feldspar. Furthermore, the precipitation of calcite along the flow path in the brine results in a drop of pH from 6.2 to a value of 5.2 noticed over the simulated period. The circulation of cooled fluid in the reservoir is predicted to affect the temperature of the reservoir within the first 100 -150m from the injection well. Examination of porosity change in this simulation reveals that, porosity and permeability near the wellbore are enhanced after injection. This is chiefly due to the dissolution of calcite near the injection well and less extent by dolomite The porosity is improved by more than 14% at the injection well, but then decreases away from the well.

Modeling CO2 distribution in a heterogeneous sandstone reservoir: the Johansen Formation, northern North Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sundal, Anja; Miri, Rohaldin; Petter Nystuen, Johan; Dypvik, Henning; Aagaard, Per

2013-04-01

The last few years there has been broad attention towards finding permanent storage options for CO2. The Norwegian continental margin holds great potential for storage in saline aquifers. Common for many of these reservoir candidates, however, is that geological data are sparse relative to thoroughly mapped hydrocarbon reservoirs in the region. Scenario modeling provides a method for estimating reservoir performances for potential CO2 storage sites and for testing injection strategies. This approach is particularly useful in the evaluation of uncertainties related to reservoir properties and geometry. In this study we have tested the effect of geological heterogeneities in the Johansen Formation, which is a laterally extensive sandstone and saline aquifer at burial depths of 2 - 4 km, proposed as a suitable candidate for CO2 storage by Norwegian authorities. The central parts of the Johansen Formation are underlying the operating hydrocarbon field Troll. In order not to interfere with ongoing gas production, a potential CO2 injection well should be located at a safe distance from the gas reservoir, which consequently implies areas presently without well control. From 3D seismic data, prediction of spatial extent of sandstone is possible to a certain degree, whereas intra-reservoir flow baffles such as draping mudstone beds and calcite cemented layers are below seismic resolution. The number and lateral extent of flow baffles, as well as porosity- and permeability distributions are dependent of sedimentary facies and diagenesis. The interpretation of depositional environment and burial history is thus of crucial importance. A suite of scenario models was established for a potential injection area south of the Troll field. The model grids where made in Petrel based on our interpretations of seismic data, wire line logs, core and cuttings samples. Using Eclipse 300 the distribution of CO2 is modeled for different geological settings; with and without the presence of pervasive low permeability draping mudstone layers, and with varying lateral extent of potential calcite cemented layers in 8 to 15 intra-reservoir depth levels. The modeled area covers 10 x 15.8 km, with a thickness of 110 m at the injection point. Simulations were run with an injection phase of 30 years plus 100 years of migration. The presence of meso-scale flow baffles causes a reduction in vertical permeability in addition to the facies related variation on the micro-scale. Scenarios including potential flow baffles as separate layers in the model grids were compared to scenarios in which the effect of flow baffles were included using harmonic mean average of vertical permeability. The subsequent differences in CO2 distribution are important in estimating the contact area between the plume front and reservoir brine. A heterogeneous reservoir with internal flow baffles is not necessarily a disadvantage as long as sufficient injectivity is maintained within individual sandstone bodies. In each scenario we aim to adapt a suitable injection strategy with respect to utilizing local effects such as the delimitation of gravitational flow, in order to increase reservoir sweep and maximize the effect of trapping mechanisms (i.e. residual, stratigraphic, mineral and dissolution).

Loss of Water to Space from Mars: Processes and Implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kass, D. M.

2001-12-01

One of the major sinks for water on Mars is the loss to space. This occurs via a complex series of processes that transport the individual atoms to the upper atmosphere, where several escape mechanisms remove them. Hydrogen and deuterium are lost primarily by Jeans escape. Non-thermal processes also remove H and D, but are only important in determining D loss at solar minimum under modern conditions. The present H loss rate is equivalent to the loss of 10-3~pr-\\micron~yr-1 of water. The loss of oxygen is more complicated. The three main processes are indirect (or ionospheric) sputtering, solar wind pickup of O+, and O2+ dissociative recombination. Their relative importance has varied over the history of Mars. The combined effect of the O loss processes is to remove a ~ 50~m global layer of water over the last 3.5 Gyr. Based on photochemical modeling, the loss of oxygen and hydrogen are balanced (over geological timescales) by a feedback process. During the early history of Mars, impact erosion and hydrodynamic blow-off may have removed significant water. But, it is difficult to estimate their quantitative effects. The transport of individual H, D and O atoms to the exosphere where they can escape is not completely understood. It occurs primarily via intermediate species, H2, HD, O2 and CO2. The H2 and HD are formed by photolysis of water and the odd hydrogen photochemistry. One open issue is the mechanism regulating the partitioning of D between HDO and HD (which controls the supply of D available for escape from the exosphere). The various loss processes isotopically enrich Martian water since the exospheric escape source region is depleted. Jeans escape and the transport from the lower atmosphere further fractionate hydrogen, the most useful isotopic system. Based on recent observations, the D/H fractionation factor, F ~ 0.02. Measurements of atmospheric water vapor indicate it is enriched in deuterium, with a D/H ratio ~ 5 times the terrestrial value. Since most of the water on Mars is likely to be in the form of ice, it is presumably further fractionated by ~ 0.8 due to ice/water vapor interactions. This yields an effective D/H enrichment of ~ 7 for reservoirs in equilibrium with the atmosphere. From a loss to space point of view, Martian water can be divided into three reservoirs. The first is the thin, 10 pr-\\micron, atmospheric water. The second is a global exchangeable reservoir in long term isotopic equilibrium with the atmosphere. This probably encompasses the polar caps, ice in polar layered deposits and any other near surface ice or adsorbed water. The third, more speculative, reservoir is a non-exchanging reservoir (a deep sub-surface cryosphere). In addition, due to the small size of the atmospheric reservoir, difficulty in isotopically equilibrating it with the entire exchangeable reservoir, and the relatively rapid H2 loss rate, there is also an intermediate exchangeable reservoir of ~ 4~mm. This is probably either a surface layer on the polar caps or near surface ice deposits. By assuming an initial terrestrial D/H ratio for Martian water (based on condritic meteorites) and a loss to space of ~ 50~m (based on the total O loss), the size of the exchangeable reservoir can be estimated. Two conceptual models are possible, depending on whether or not the non-exchangeable reservoir replenishes the exchangeable one. Quantitatively, the two models yield almost identical reservoir sizes, ~ 9~m (about the size of the northern polar cap). If, due to slow rate of isotopic diffusion in ice, the exchangeable reservoir actually has the same isotopic enrichment as the atmosphere, it would contain ~ 12~m of water.

Modeling Multi-Reservoir Hydropower Systems in the Sierra Nevada with Environmental Requirements and Climate Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rheinheimer, David Emmanuel

Hydropower systems and other river regulation often harm instream ecosystems, partly by altering the natural flow and temperature regimes that ecosystems have historically depended on. These effects are compounded at regional scales. As hydropower and ecosystems are increasingly valued globally due to growing values for clean energy and native species as well as and new threats from climate warming, it is important to understand how climate warming might affect these systems, to identify tradeoffs between different water uses for different climate conditions, and to identify promising water management solutions. This research uses traditional simulation and optimization to explore these issues in California's upper west slope Sierra Nevada mountains. The Sierra Nevada provides most of the water for California's vast water supply system, supporting high-elevation hydropower generation, ecosystems, recreation, and some local municipal and agricultural water supply along the way. However, regional climate warming is expected to reduce snowmelt and shift runoff to earlier in the year, affecting all water uses. This dissertation begins by reviewing important literature related to the broader motivations of this study, including river regulation, freshwater conservation, and climate change. It then describes three substantial studies. First, a weekly time step water resources management model spanning the Feather River watershed in the north to the Kern River watershed in the south is developed. The model, which uses the Water Evaluation And Planning System (WEAP), includes reservoirs, run-of-river hydropower, variable head hydropower, water supply demand, and instream flow requirements. The model is applied with a runoff dataset that considers regional air temperature increases of 0, 2, 4 and 6 °C to represent historical, near-term, mid-term and far-term (end-of-century) warming. Most major hydropower turbine flows are simulated well. Reservoir storage is also generally well simulated, mostly limited by the accuracy of inflow hydrology. System-wide hydropower generation is reduced by 9% with 6 °C warming. Most reductions in hydropower generation occur in the highly productive watersheds in the northern Sierra Nevada. The central Sierra Nevada sees less reduction in annual runoff and can adapt better to changes in runoff timing. Generation in southern watersheds is expected to decrease. System-wide, reservoirs adapt to capture earlier runoff, but mostly decrease in mean reservoir storage with warming due to decreasing annual runoff. Second, a multi-reservoir optimization model is developed using linear programming that considers the minimum instream flows (MIFs) and weekly down ramp rates (DRRs) in the Upper Yuba River in the northern Sierra Nevada. Weekly DRR constraints are used to mimic spring snowmelt flows, which are particularly important for downstream ecosystems in the Sierra Nevada but are currently missing due to the influence of dams. Trade-offs between MIFs, DRRs and hydropower are explored with air temperature warming (+0, 2, 4 and 6 °C). Under base case operations, mean annual hydropower generation increases slightly with 2 °C warming and decreases slightly with 6 °C warming. With 6 °C warming, the most ecologically beneficial MIF and DRR reduce hydropower generation 5.5% compared to base case operations and a historical climate, which has important implications for re-licensing the hydropower project. Finally, reservoir management for downstream temperatures is explored using a linear programming model to optimally release water from a reservoir using selective withdrawal. The objective function is to minimize deviations from desired downstream temperatures, which are specified to mimic the natural temperature regime in the river. One objective of this study was to develop a method that can be readily integrated into a basin-scale multi-reservoir optimization model using a network representation of system features. The second objective was to explore the potential use of reservoirs to maintain an ideal stream temperature regime to ameliorate the temperature effects of climate warming of air temperature. For proof-of-concept, the model is applied to Lake Spaulding in the Upper Yuba River. With selective withdrawal, the model hedges the release of cold water to decrease summer stream temperatures, but at a cost of warmer stream temperatures in the winter. Results also show that selective withdrawal can reduce, but not eliminate, the temperature effects of climate warming. The model can be extended to include other nearby reservoirs to optimally manage releases from multiple reservoirs for multiple downstream temperature targets in a highly interconnected system. While the outcomes of these studies contribute to our understanding of reservoir management and hydropower at the intersection of energy, water management, ecosystems, and climate warming, there are many opportunities to improve this work. Promising options for improving and building on the collective utility of these studies are presented.

Predicting Formation Damage in Aquifer Thermal Energy Storage Systems Utilizing a Coupled Hydraulic-Thermal-Chemical Reservoir Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Müller, Daniel; Regenspurg, Simona; Milsch, Harald; Blöcher, Guido; Kranz, Stefan; Saadat, Ali

2014-05-01

In aquifer thermal energy storage (ATES) systems, large amounts of energy can be stored by injecting hot water into deep or intermediate aquifers. In a seasonal production-injection cycle, water is circulated through a system comprising the porous aquifer, a production well, a heat exchanger and an injection well. This process involves large temperature and pressure differences, which shift chemical equilibria and introduce or amplify mechanical processes. Rock-fluid interaction such as dissolution and precipitation or migration and deposition of fine particles will affect the hydraulic properties of the porous medium and may lead to irreversible formation damage. In consequence, these processes determine the long-term performance of the ATES system and need to be predicted to ensure the reliability of the system. However, high temperature and pressure gradients and dynamic feedback cycles pose challenges on predicting the influence of the relevant processes. Within this study, a reservoir model comprising a coupled hydraulic-thermal-chemical simulation was developed based on an ATES demonstration project located in the city of Berlin, Germany. The structural model was created with Petrel, based on data available from seismic cross-sections and wellbores. The reservoir simulation was realized by combining the capabilities of multiple simulation tools. For the reactive transport model, COMSOL Multiphysics (hydraulic-thermal) and PHREEQC (chemical) were combined using the novel interface COMSOL_PHREEQC, developed by Wissmeier & Barry (2011). It provides a MATLAB-based coupling interface between both programs. Compared to using COMSOL's built-in reactive transport simulator, PHREEQC additionally calculates adsorption and reaction kinetics and allows the selection of different activity coefficient models in the database. The presented simulation tool will be able to predict the most important aspects of hydraulic, thermal and chemical transport processes relevant to formation damage in ATES systems. We would like to present preliminary results of the structural reservoir model and the hydraulic-thermal-chemical coupling for the demonstration site. Literature: Wissmeier, L. and Barry, D.A., 2011. Simulation tool for variably saturated flow with comprehensive geochemical reactions in two- and three-dimensional domains. Environmental Modelling & Software 26, 210-218.

On the control of riverbed incision induced by run-of-river power plant

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bizzi, Simone; Dinh, Quang; Bernardi, Dario; Denaro, Simona; Schippa, Leonardo; Soncini-Sessa, Rodolfo

2015-07-01

Water resource management (WRM) through dams or reservoirs is worldwide necessary to support key human-related activities, ranging from hydropower production to water allocation and flood risk mitigation. Designing of reservoir operations aims primarily to fulfill the main purpose (or purposes) for which the structure has been built. However, it is well known that reservoirs strongly influence river geomorphic processes, causing sediment deficits downstream, altering water, and sediment fluxes, leading to riverbed incision and causing infrastructure instability and ecological degradation. We propose a framework that, by combining physically based modeling, surrogate modeling techniques, and multiobjective (MO) optimization, allows to include fluvial geomorphology into MO optimization whose main objectives are the maximization of hydropower revenue and the minimization of riverbed degradation. The case study is a run-of-the-river power plant on the River Po (Italy). A 1-D mobile-bed hydro-morphological model simulated the riverbed evolution over a 10 year horizon for alternatives operation rules of the power plant. The knowledge provided by such a physically based model is integrated into a MO optimization routine via surrogate modeling using the response surface methodology. Hence, this framework overcomes the high computational costs that so far hindered the integration of river geomorphology into WRM. We provided numerical proof that river morphologic processes and hydropower production are indeed in conflict but that the conflict may be mitigated with appropriate control strategies.

Habitat suitability mapping of Anopheles darlingi in the surroundings of the Manso hydropower plant reservoir, Mato Grosso, Central Brazil

PubMed Central

Zeilhofer, Peter; Santos, Emerson Soares dos; Ribeiro, Ana LM; Miyazaki, Rosina D; Santos, Marina Atanaka dos

2007-01-01

Background Hydropower plants provide more than 78 % of Brazil's electricity generation, but the country's reservoirs are potential new habitats for main vectors of malaria. In a case study in the surroundings of the Manso hydropower plant in Mato Grosso state, Central Brazil, habitat suitability of Anopheles darlingi was studied. Habitat profile was characterized by collecting environmental data. Remote sensing and GIS techniques were applied to extract additional spatial layers of land use, distance maps, and relief characteristics for spatial model building. Results Logistic regression analysis and ROC curves indicate significant relationships between the environment and presence of An. darlingi. Probabilities of presence strongly vary as a function of land cover and distance from the lake shoreline. Vector presence was associated with spatial proximity to reservoir and semi-deciduous forests followed by Cerrado woodland. Vector absence was associated with open vegetation formations such as grasslands and agricultural areas. We suppose that non-significant differences of vector incidences between rainy and dry seasons are associated with the availability of anthropogenic breeding habitat of the reservoir throughout the year. Conclusion Satellite image classification and multitemporal shoreline simulations through DEM-based GIS-analyses consist in a valuable tool for spatial modeling of A. darlingi habitats in the studied hydropower reservoir area. Vector presence is significantly increased in forested areas near reservoirs in bays protected from wind and wave action. Construction of new reservoirs under the tropical, sub-humid climatic conditions should therefore be accompanied by entomologic studies to predict the risk of malaria epidemics. PMID:17343728

Habitat suitability mapping of Anopheles darlingi in the surroundings of the Manso hydropower plant reservoir, Mato Grosso, Central Brazil.

PubMed

Zeilhofer, Peter; dos Santos, Emerson Soares; Ribeiro, Ana L M; Miyazaki, Rosina D; dos Santos, Marina Atanaka

2007-03-07

Hydropower plants provide more than 78 % of Brazil's electricity generation, but the country's reservoirs are potential new habitats for main vectors of malaria. In a case study in the surroundings of the Manso hydropower plant in Mato Grosso state, Central Brazil, habitat suitability of Anopheles darlingi was studied. Habitat profile was characterized by collecting environmental data. Remote sensing and GIS techniques were applied to extract additional spatial layers of land use, distance maps, and relief characteristics for spatial model building. Logistic regression analysis and ROC curves indicate significant relationships between the environment and presence of An. darlingi. Probabilities of presence strongly vary as a function of land cover and distance from the lake shoreline. Vector presence was associated with spatial proximity to reservoir and semi-deciduous forests followed by Cerrado woodland. Vector absence was associated with open vegetation formations such as grasslands and agricultural areas. We suppose that non-significant differences of vector incidences between rainy and dry seasons are associated with the availability of anthropogenic breeding habitat of the reservoir throughout the year. Satellite image classification and multitemporal shoreline simulations through DEM-based GIS-analyses consist in a valuable tool for spatial modeling of A. darlingi habitats in the studied hydropower reservoir area. Vector presence is significantly increased in forested areas near reservoirs in bays protected from wind and wave action. Construction of new reservoirs under the tropical, sub-humid climatic conditions should therefore be accompanied by entomologic studies to predict the risk of malaria epidemics.

Research on System Coherence Evolution of Different Environmental Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Si-Qi; Lu, Jing-Bin; Li, Hong; Liu, Ji-Ping; Zhang, Xiao-Ru; Liu, Han; Liang, Yu; Ma, Ji; Liu, Xiao-Jing; Wu, Xiang-Yao

2018-04-01

In this paper, we have studied the evolution curve of two-level atomic system that the initial state is excited state. At the different of environmental reservoir models, which include the single Lorentzian, ideal photon band-gap, double Lorentzian and square Lorentzian reservoir, we researched the influence of these environmental reservoir models on the evolution of energy level population. At static no modulation, comparing the four environmental models, the atomic energy level population oscillation of square Lorentzian reservoir model is fastest, and the atomic system decoherence is slowest. Under dynamic modulation, comparing the photon band-gap model with the single Lorentzian reservoir model, no matter what form of dynamic modulation, the time of atoms decay to the ground state is longer for the photonic band-gap model. These conclusions make the idea of using the environmental change to modulate the coherent evolution of atomic system become true.

An Ensemble-Based Forecasting Framework to Optimize Reservoir Releases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramaswamy, V.; Saleh, F.

2017-12-01

Increasing frequency of extreme precipitation events are stressing the need to manage water resources on shorter timescales. Short-term management of water resources becomes proactive when inflow forecasts are available and this information can be effectively used in the control strategy. This work investigates the utility of short term hydrological ensemble forecasts for operational decision making during extreme weather events. An advanced automated hydrologic prediction framework integrating a regional scale hydrologic model, GIS datasets and the meteorological ensemble predictions from the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) was coupled to an implicit multi-objective dynamic programming model to optimize releases from a water supply reservoir. The proposed methodology was evaluated by retrospectively forecasting the inflows to the Oradell reservoir in the Hackensack River basin in New Jersey during the extreme hydrologic event, Hurricane Irene. Additionally, the flexibility of the forecasting framework was investigated by forecasting the inflows from a moderate rainfall event to provide important perspectives on using the framework to assist reservoir operations during moderate events. The proposed forecasting framework seeks to provide a flexible, assistive tool to alleviate the complexity of operational decision-making.

Radon and ammonia transects across the Cerro Prieto geothermal field

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Semprini, L.; Kruger, P.

1981-01-01

Radon and ammonia transects, conducted at the Cerro Prieto geothermal field, involve measurement of concentration gradients at wells along lines of structural significance in the reservoir. Analysis of four transects showed radon concentrations ranging from 0.20 to 3.60 nCi/kg and ammonia concentrations from 17.6 to 59.3 mg/l. The data showed the lower concentrations in wells of lowest enthalpy fluid and the higher concentrations in wells of highest enthalpy fluid. Linear correlation analysis of the radon-enthalpy data indicated a strong relationship, with a marked influence by the two-phase conditions of the produced fluid. It appears that after phase separation in themore » reservoir, radon achieves radioactive equilibrium between fluid and rock, suggesting that the phase separation occurs well within the reservoir. A two-phase mixing model based on radon-enthalpy relations allows estimation of the fluid phase temperatures in the reservoir. Correlations of ammonia concentration with fluid enthalpy suggests an equilibrium partitioning model in which enrichment of ammonia correlates with higher enthalpy vapor.« less

A Study of the Optimal Planning Model for Reservoir Sustainable Management- A Case Study of Shihmen Reservoir

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Y. Y.; Ho, C. C.; Chang, L. C.

2017-12-01

The reservoir management in Taiwan faces lots of challenge. Massive sediment caused by landslide were flushed into reservoir, which will decrease capacity, rise the turbidity, and increase supply risk. Sediment usually accompanies nutrition that will cause eutrophication problem. Moreover, the unevenly distribution of rainfall cause water supply instability. Hence, how to ensure sustainable use of reservoirs has become an important task in reservoir management. The purpose of the study is developing an optimal planning model for reservoir sustainable management to find out an optimal operation rules of reservoir flood control and sediment sluicing. The model applies Genetic Algorithms to combine with the artificial neural network of hydraulic analysis and reservoir sediment movement. The main objective of operation rules in this study is to prevent reservoir outflow caused downstream overflow, minimum the gap between initial and last water level of reservoir, and maximum sluicing sediment efficiency. A case of Shihmen reservoir was used to explore the different between optimal operating rule and the current operation of the reservoir. The results indicate optimal operating rules tended to open desilting tunnel early and extend open duration during flood discharge period. The results also show the sluicing sediment efficiency of optimal operating rule is 36%, 44%, 54% during Typhoon Jangmi, Typhoon Fung-Wong, and Typhoon Sinlaku respectively. The results demonstrate the optimal operation rules do play a role in extending the service life of Shihmen reservoir and protecting the safety of downstream. The study introduces a low cost strategy, alteration of operation reservoir rules, into reservoir sustainable management instead of pump dredger in order to improve the problem of elimination of reservoir sediment and high cost.

Assessing the potential of reservoir outflow management to reduce sedimentation using continuous turbidity monitoring and reservoir modelling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lee, Casey; Foster, Guy

2013-01-01

In-stream sensors are increasingly deployed as part of ambient water quality-monitoring networks. Temporally dense data from these networks can be used to better understand the transport of constituents through streams, lakes or reservoirs. Data from existing, continuously recording in-stream flow and water quality monitoring stations were coupled with the two-dimensional hydrodynamic CE-QUAL-W2 model to assess the potential of altered reservoir outflow management to reduce sediment trapping in John Redmond Reservoir, located in east-central Kansas. Monitoring stations upstream and downstream from the reservoir were used to estimate 5.6 million metric tons of sediment transported to John Redmond Reservoir from 2007 through 2010, 88% of which was trapped within the reservoir. The two-dimensional model was used to estimate the residence time of 55 equal-volume releases from the reservoir; sediment trapping for these releases varied from 48% to 97%. Smaller trapping efficiencies were observed when the reservoir was maintained near the normal operating capacity (relative to higher flood pool levels) and when average residence times were relatively short. An idealized, alternative outflow management scenario was constructed, which minimized reservoir elevations and the length of time water was in the reservoir, while continuing to meet downstream flood control end points identified in the reservoir water control manual. The alternative scenario is projected to reduce sediment trapping in the reservoir by approximately 3%, preventing approximately 45 000 metric tons of sediment from being deposited within the reservoir annually. This article presents an approach to quantify the potential of reservoir management using existing in-stream data; actual management decisions need to consider the effects on other reservoir benefits, such as downstream flood control and aquatic life.

Simple Deterministically Constructed Recurrent Neural Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodan, Ali; Tiňo, Peter

A large number of models for time series processing, forecasting or modeling follows a state-space formulation. Models in the specific class of state-space approaches, referred to as Reservoir Computing, fix their state-transition function. The state space with the associated state transition structure forms a reservoir, which is supposed to be sufficiently complex so as to capture a large number of features of the input stream that can be potentially exploited by the reservoir-to-output readout mapping. The largely "black box" character of reservoirs prevents us from performing a deeper theoretical investigation of the dynamical properties of successful reservoirs. Reservoir construction is largely driven by a series of (more-or-less) ad-hoc randomized model building stages, with both the researchers and practitioners having to rely on a series of trials and errors. We show that a very simple deterministically constructed reservoir with simple cycle topology gives performances comparable to those of the Echo State Network (ESN) on a number of time series benchmarks. Moreover, we argue that the memory capacity of such a model can be made arbitrarily close to the proved theoretical limit.

An Analytical Model for Assessing Stability of Pre-Existing Faults in Caprock Caused by Fluid Injection and Extraction in a Reservoir

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Lei; Bai, Bing; Li, Xiaochun; Liu, Mingze; Wu, Haiqing; Hu, Shaobin

2016-07-01

Induced seismicity and fault reactivation associated with fluid injection and depletion were reported in hydrocarbon, geothermal, and waste fluid injection fields worldwide. Here, we establish an analytical model to assess fault reactivation surrounding a reservoir during fluid injection and extraction that considers the stress concentrations at the fault tips and the effects of fault length. In this model, induced stress analysis in a full-space under the plane strain condition is implemented based on Eshelby's theory of inclusions in terms of a homogeneous, isotropic, and poroelastic medium. The stress intensity factor concept in linear elastic fracture mechanics is adopted as an instability criterion for pre-existing faults in surrounding rocks. To characterize the fault reactivation caused by fluid injection and extraction, we define a new index, the "fault reactivation factor" η, which can be interpreted as an index of fault stability in response to fluid pressure changes per unit within a reservoir resulting from injection or extraction. The critical fluid pressure change within a reservoir is also determined by the superposition principle using the in situ stress surrounding a fault. Our parameter sensitivity analyses show that the fault reactivation tendency is strongly sensitive to fault location, fault length, fault dip angle, and Poisson's ratio of the surrounding rock. Our case study demonstrates that the proposed model focuses on the mechanical behavior of the whole fault, unlike the conventional methodologies. The proposed method can be applied to engineering cases related to injection and depletion within a reservoir owing to its efficient computational codes implementation.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Burrell, J.; Luheshi, M.; Mackenzie, A.

Gyda field (operated by BP) is located in Block 2/1 of the Norwegian outer continental shelf. The reservoir comprises a thin, wedge-shaped Upper Jurassic sand, overlain by Lower Cretaceous mudstones. For field development, it is necessary to accurately map a laterally discontinuous high-porosity zone and thus to help site well locations. To this end, it was decided to invert the 3-D seismic data set over the field to the seismic attribute of absolute acoustic impedance (AAI). This was based on the observation that there is a good correlation between porosity and AII derived from well logs. Comparisons of core porosity,more » log-derived porosity, and seismic-derived porosity at several well locations showed this technique to be generally satisfactory. An additional problem in Gyda is the detection of the truncation edge of the reservoir along the southeastern part of the field. Deterministic methods based on AAI and on forward seismic modeling were not able to unambiguously define the edge of the reservoir. The truncation of th reservoir is not clear on normal seismic amplitude displays. In order to investigate the zone where the reservoir interval changes form sand to shale, certain special seismic attributes were computer over a gate of seismic data covering the top reservoir reflection. These attributes represented the energy, phase, and frequency content of the gate of seismic data. The area investigated was between wells where the reservoir sand was known to pinch out. These attributes were clustered using the statistical technique of projection pursuit. The cluster map correlates with the observations from the wells in this area of the field and appears to show the edge of the effective reservoir in the field.« less

Developing an integrated 3D-hydrodynamic and emerging contaminant model for assessing water quality in a Yangtze Estuary Reservoir.

PubMed

Xu, Cong; Zhang, Jingjie; Bi, Xiaowei; Xu, Zheng; He, Yiliang; Gin, Karina Yew-Hoong

2017-12-01

An integrated 3D-hydrodynamic and emerging contaminant model was developed for better understanding of the fate and transport of emerging contaminants in Qingcaosha Reservoir. The reservoir, which supplies drinking water for nearly half of Shanghai's population, is located in Yangtze Delta. The integrated model was built by Delft3D suite, a fully integrated multidimensional modeling software. Atrazine and Bisphenol A (BPA) were selected as two representative emerging contaminants for the study in this reservoir. The hydrodynamic model was calibrated and validated against observations from 2011 to 2015 while the integrated model was calibrated against observations from 2014 to 2015 and then applied to explore the potential risk of high atrazine concentrations in the reservoir driven by agriculture activities. Our results show that the model is capable of describing the spatial and temporal patterns of water temperature, salinity and the dynamic distributions of two representative emerging contaminants (i.e. atrazine and BPA) in the reservoir. The physical and biodegradation processes in this study were found to play a crucial role in determining the fate and transport of atrazine and BPA in the reservoir. The model also provides an insight into the potential risk of emerging contaminants and possible mitigation thresholds. The integrated approach can be a very useful tool to support policy-makers in the future management of Qingcaosha Reservoir. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Coupling large scale hydrologic-reservoir-hydraulic models for impact studies in data sparse regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Loughlin, Fiachra; Neal, Jeff; Wagener, Thorsten; Bates, Paul; Freer, Jim; Woods, Ross; Pianosi, Francesca; Sheffied, Justin

2017-04-01

As hydraulic modelling moves to increasingly large spatial domains it has become essential to take reservoirs and their operations into account. Large-scale hydrological models have been including reservoirs for at least the past two decades, yet they cannot explicitly model the variations in spatial extent of reservoirs, and many reservoirs operations in hydrological models are not undertaken during the run-time operation. This requires a hydraulic model, yet to-date no continental scale hydraulic model has directly simulated reservoirs and their operations. In addition to the need to include reservoirs and their operations in hydraulic models as they move to global coverage, there is also a need to link such models to large scale hydrology models or land surface schemes. This is especially true for Africa where the number of river gauges has consistently declined since the middle of the twentieth century. In this study we address these two major issues by developing: 1) a coupling methodology for the VIC large-scale hydrological model and the LISFLOOD-FP hydraulic model, and 2) a reservoir module for the LISFLOOD-FP model, which currently includes four sets of reservoir operating rules taken from the major large-scale hydrological models. The Volta Basin, West Africa, was chosen to demonstrate the capability of the modelling framework as it is a large river basin ( 400,000 km2) and contains the largest man-made lake in terms of area (8,482 km2), Lake Volta, created by the Akosombo dam. Lake Volta also experiences a seasonal variation in water levels of between two and six metres that creates a dynamic shoreline. In this study, we first run our coupled VIC and LISFLOOD-FP model without explicitly modelling Lake Volta and then compare these results with those from model runs where the dam operations and Lake Volta are included. The results show that we are able to obtain variation in the Lake Volta water levels and that including the dam operations and Lake Volta has significant impacts on the water levels across the domain.

A Sublimation Model for the Martian Polar Swiss-Cheese Features. Observational and Modeling Studies of the South Polar Residual Cap

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Byrne, Shane; Ingersoll, Andrew P.

2002-01-01

In their pioneering work Leighton and Murray argued that the Mars atmosphere, which is 95 percent CO2 today, is controlled by vapor equilibrium with a much larger polar reservoir of solid CO2. Here we argue that the polar reservoir is small and cannot function as a long-term buffer to the more massive atmosphere. Our work is based on modeling the circular depressions (Swiss-cheese features) in the south polar cap. We argue that a solid CO2 layer approximately 8 meters thick is being etched away to reveal water ice underneath. Preliminary results from the THEMIS (Thermal Emission Imaging System) instrument seem to confirm our model.

Stable large-scale CO2 storage in defiance of an energy system based on renewable energy - Modelling the impact of varying CO2 injection rates on reservoir behavior

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bannach, Andreas; Hauer, Rene; Martin, Streibel; Stienstra, Gerard; Kühn, Michael

2015-04-01

The IPCC Report 2014 strengthens the need for CO2 storage as part of CCS or BECCS to reach ambitious climate goals despite growing energy demand in the future. The further expansion of renewable energy sources is a second major pillar. As it is today in Germany the weather becomes the controlling factor for electricity production by fossil fuelled power plants which lead to significant fluctuations of CO2-emissions which can be traced in injection rates if the CO2 were captured and stored. To analyse the impact of such changing injection rates on a CO2 storage reservoir. two reservoir simulation models are applied: a. An (smaller) reservoir model approved by gas storage activities for decades, to investigate the dynamic effects in the early stage of storage filling (initial aquifer displacement). b. An anticline structure big enough to accommodate a total amount of ≥ 100 Mega tons CO2 to investigate the dynamic effects for the entire operational life time of the storage under particular consideration of very high filling levels (highest aquifer compression). Therefore a reservoir model was generated. The defined yearly injection rate schedule is based on a study performed on behalf of IZ Klima (DNV GL, 2014). According to this study the exclusive consideration of a pool of coal-fired power plants causes the most intensive dynamically changing CO2 emissions and hence accounts for variations of a system which includes industry driven CO2 production. Besides short-term changes (daily & weekly cycles) seasonal influences are also taken into account. Simulation runs cover a variation of injection points (well locations at the top vs. locations at the flank of the structure) and some other largely unknown reservoir parameters as aquifer size and aquifer mobility. Simulation of a 20 year storage operation is followed by a post-operational shut-in phase which covers approximately 500 years to assess possible effects of changing injection rates on the long-term reservoir behaviour. The cyclic injection operation has an impact on the requirements of the facility design. To define the design basis for the aboveground installations only wellhead pressures are to be considered. For this reason the calculated bottom hole pressures need to be transferred into wellhead pressures. This is done by the application of thermodynamic models which include all relevant processes associated with the fluid flow through production or injection strings. Finally, a commercial analysis is carried out which is based on a total cost estimate (CAPEX & OPEX). The outcome of this analysis demonstrates required certificate prices to reach the common return targets of an industrial project. References DNV GL, " CO2 Transport Infrastructure in Germany - Necessity and Boundary Conditions up to 2050", IZ Klima, Berlin, 2014, http://www.iz-klima.de/.

Simulation of rain floods on Willow Creek, Valley County, Montana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parrett, Charles

1986-01-01

The Hydrologic Engineering Center-1 rainfall-runoff simulation model was used to assess the effects of a system of reservoirs and waterspreaders in the 550-sq mi Willow Creek Basin in northeastern Montana. For simulation purposes, the basin was subdivided into 100 subbasins containing 84 reservoirs and 14 waterspreaders. Precipitation input to the model was a 24-hr duration, 100-yr frequency synthetic rainstorm developed from National Weather Service data. Infiltration and detention losses were computed using the U.S. Soil Conservation Service Curve Number concept, and the dimensionless unit hydrograph developed by the U.S. Soil Conservation Service was used to compute runoff. Channel and reservoir flow routing was based on the modified Puls storage routing procedure. Waterspreaders were simulated by assuming that each dike in a spreader system functions as a reservoir, with only an emergency spillway discharging directly into the next dike. Waterspreader and reservoir volumes were calculated from surface areas measured on maps. The first simulation run was made with no structures in place, and resulted in a 100-yr frequency peak at the mouth of Willow Creek of 22,700 cu ft/sec. With all structures in place, the 100-yr frequency peak was decreased by 74% to 5,870 cu ft/sec. (USGS)

Sensitivity analysis for the total nitrogen pollution of the Danjiangkou Reservoir based on a 3-D water quality model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Libin; Yang, Zhifeng; Liu, Haifei

2017-12-01

Inter-basin water transfers containing a great deal of nitrogen are great threats to human health, biodiversity, and air and water quality in the recipient area. Danjiangkou Reservoir, the source reservoir for China's South-to-North Water Diversion Middle Route Project, suffers from total nitrogen pollution and threatens the water transfer to a number of metropolises including the capital, Beijing. To locate the main source of nitrogen pollution into the reservoir, especially near the Taocha canal head, where the intake of water transfer begins, we constructed a 3-D water quality model. We then used an inflow sensitivity analysis method to analyze the significance of inflows from each tributary that may contribute to the total nitrogen pollution and affect water quality. The results indicated that the Han River was the most significant river with a sensitivity index of 0.340, followed by the Dan River with a sensitivity index of 0.089, while the Guanshan River and the Lang River were not significant, with the sensitivity indices of 0.002 and 0.001, respectively. This result implies that the concentration and amount of nitrogen inflow outweighs the geographical position of the tributary for sources of total nitrogen pollution to the Taocha canal head of the Danjiangkou Reservoir.

Selection of reservoirs amenable to micellar flooding. First annual report, October 1978-December 1979

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Goldburg, A.; Price, H.

The overall project objective is to build a solid engineering base upon which the Department of Energy (DOE) can improve and accelerate the application of micellar-polymer recovery technology to Mid-Continent and California sandstone reservoirs. The purpose of the work carried out under these two contracts is to significantly aid, both DOE and the private sector, in gaining the following Project Objectives: to select the better micellar-polymer prospects in the Mid-Continent and California regions; to assess all of the available field and laboratory data which has a bearing on recovering oil by micellar-polymer projects in order to help identify and resolvemore » both the technical and economic constraints relating thereto; and to design and analyze improved field pilots and tests and to develop a micellar-polymer applications matrix for use by the potential technology users; i.e., owner/operators. The report includes the following: executive summary and project objectives; development of a predictive model for economic evaluation of reservoirs; reservoir data bank for micellar-polymer recovery evaluation; PECON program for preliminary economic evaluation; ordering of candidate reservoirs for additional data acquisition; validation of predictive model by numerical simulation; and work forecast. Tables, figures and references are included.« less

Climate Variability Impacts on Watershed Nutrient Delivery and Reservoir Production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

White, J. D.; Prochnow, S. J.; Zygo, L. M.; Byars, B. W.

2005-05-01

Reservoirs in agricultural dominated watersheds tend to exhibit pulse-system behavior especially if located in climates dominated by summer convective precipitation inputs. Concentration and bulk mass of nutrient and sediment inputs into reservoir systems vary in terms of timing and magnitude of delivery from watershed sources to reservoirs under these climate conditions. Reservoir management often focuses on long-term average inputs without considering short and long-term impacts of variation in loading. In this study we modeled a watershed-reservoir system to assess how climate variability affects reservoir primary production through shifts in external loading and internal recycling of limiting nutrients. The Bosque watershed encompasses 423,824 ha in central Texas which delivers water to Lake Waco, a 2900 ha reservoir that is the primary water source for the city of Waco and surrounding areas. Utilizing the Soil Water Assessment Tool for the watershed and river simulations and the CE-Qual-2e model for the reservoir, hydrologic and nutrient dynamics were simulated for a 10 year period encompassing two ENSO cycles. The models were calibrated based on point measurement of water quality attributes for a two year time period. Results indicated that watershed delivery of nutrients was affected by the presence and density of small flood-control structure in the watershed. However, considerable nitrogen and phosphorus loadings were derived from soils in the upper watershed which have had long-term waste-application from concentrated animal feeding operations. During El Niño years, nutrient and sediment loads increased by 3 times above non-El Niño years. The simulated response within the reservoir to these nutrient and sediment loads had both direct and indirect. Productivity evaluated from chlorophyll a and algal biomass increased under El Niño conditions, however species composition shifts were found with an increase in cyanobacteria dominance. In non-El Niño years, species composition was more evenly distributed. At the longer time scale, El Niño events with accompanying increase in nutrient loads were followed by years in which productivity declined below levels predicted solely by nutrient ratios. This was due to subtle shifts in organic matter decomposition where productive years are followed by increases in refractory material which sequesters nutrients and reduces internal loading.

Fort Cobb Reservoir Watershed, Oklahoma and Thika River Watershed, Kenya Twinning Pilot Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moriasi, D.; Steiner, J.; Arnold, J.; Allen, P.; Dunbar, J.; Shisanya, C.; Gathenya, J.; Nyaoro, J.; Sang, J.

2007-12-01

The Fort Cobb Reservoir Watershed (FCRW) (830 km2) is a watershed within the HELP Washita Basin, located in Caddo and Washita Counties, OK. It is also a benchmark watershed under USDA's Conservation Effects Assessment Project, a national project to quantify environmental effects of USDA and other conservation programs. Population in south-western Oklahoma, in which FCRW is located, is sparse and decreasing. Agricultural focuses on commodity production (beef, wheat, and row crops) with high costs and low margins. Surface and groundwater resources supply public, domestic, and irrigation water. Fort Cobb Reservoir and contributing stream segments are listed on the Oklahoma 303(d) list as not meeting water quality standards based on sedimentation, trophic level of the lake associated with phosphorus loads, and nitrogen in some stream segments in some seasons. Preliminary results from a rapid geomorphic assessment results indicated that unstable stream channels dominate the stream networks and make a significant but unknown contribution to suspended-sediment loadings. Impairment of the lake for municipal water supply, recreation, and fish and wildlife are important factors in local economies. The Thika River Watershed (TRW) (867 km2) is located in central Kenya. Population in TRW is high and increasing, which has led to a poor land-population ratio with population densities ranging from 250 people/km2 to over 500 people/km2. The poor land-population ratio has resulted in land sub-division, fragmentation, over- cultivation, overgrazing, and deforestation which have serious implications on soil erosion, which poses a threat to both agricultural production and downstream reservoirs. Agricultural focuses mainly on subsistence and some cash crops (dairy cattle, corn, beans, coffee, floriculture and pineapple) farming. Surface and groundwater resources supply domestic, public, and hydroelectric power generation water. Thika River supplies 80% of the water for the city of Nairobi. A dam was constructed in 1994 with a water reservoir of 70 million m3. Thika River also supplies water to Masinga Reservoir to supply the seven forks dams, which together supply 75% of the nation's electricity. The quantity of water in rivers and reservoirs is decreased due to sedimentation while water quality is degraded by sediments, and sediment-borne nutrients and pesticides. The focus of this pilot twinning project is watershed erosion and reservoir sedimentation assessment. This will be accomplished by (1) a rapid watershed/catchment erosion assessment using ground based measurements and remote sensing/GIS techniques, 2) use of Acoustic Profiling Systems (APS) for reservoir sedimentation measurement studies, and 3) advanced water quality modeling using the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model. Data acquired will be used for sediment transport modeling to1) determine sediment "hot spots" and management practices that will minimize sediments into reservoirs in order to 2) maintain the reservoirs on which many farmers depend for their livelihood and a cleaner environment. This project will provide an opportunity for 1) sharing knowledge and experience among the stakeholders, 2) building capacity through formal and informal education opportunities through reciprocal hosting of decision makers and water experts, and 3) technology transfer of pilot results with recommended management practices to reduce reservoir sedimentation rates.

Modeling water-quality loads to the reservoirs of the Upper Trinity River Basin, Texas, USA

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Water quality modeling efforts have been conducted for 12 reservoirs in ten watersheds in Upper Trinity River Basin located in north Texas. The reservoirs are being used for water supply to the populated area around the Dallas-Fort Worth Metro and the water quality of some of these reservoirs has b...

Derivation of low flow frequency distributions under human activities and its implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Shida; Liu, Pan; Pan, Zhengke; Ming, Bo; Guo, Shenglian; Xiong, Lihua

2017-06-01

Low flow, refers to a minimum streamflow in dry seasons, is crucial to water supply, agricultural irrigation and navigation. Human activities, such as groundwater pumping, influence low flow severely. In order to derive the low flow frequency distribution functions under human activities, this study incorporates groundwater pumping and return flow as variables in the recession process. Steps are as follows: (1) the original low flow without human activities is assumed to follow a Pearson type three distribution, (2) the probability distribution of climatic dry spell periods is derived based on a base flow recession model, (3) the base flow recession model is updated under human activities, and (4) the low flow distribution under human activities is obtained based on the derived probability distribution of dry spell periods and the updated base flow recession model. Linear and nonlinear reservoir models are used to describe the base flow recession, respectively. The Wudinghe basin is chosen for the case study, with daily streamflow observations during 1958-2000. Results show that human activities change the location parameter of the low flow frequency curve for the linear reservoir model, while alter the frequency distribution function for the nonlinear one. It is indicated that alter the parameters of the low flow frequency distribution is not always feasible to tackle the changing environment.

The nonlinear oil-water two-phase flow behavior for a horizontal well in triple media carbonate reservoir

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yong; Tao, Zhengwu; Chen, Liang; Ma, Xin

2017-10-01

Carbonate reservoir is one of the important reservoirs in the world. Because of the characteristics of carbonate reservoir, horizontal well has become a key technology for efficiently developing carbonate reservoir. Establishing corresponding mathematical models and analyzing transient pressure behaviors of this type of well-reservoir configuration can provide a better understanding of fluid flow patterns in formation as well as estimations of important parameters. A mathematical model for a oil-water two-phase flow horizontal well in triple media carbonate reservoir by conceptualizing vugs as spherical shapes are presented in this article. A semi-analytical solution is obtained in the Laplace domain using source function theory, Laplace transformation, and superposition principle. Analysis of transient pressure responses indicates that seven characteristic flow periods of horizontal well in triple media carbonate reservoir can be identified. Parametric analysis shows that water saturation of matrix, vug and fracture system, horizontal section length, and horizontal well position can significantly influence the transient pressure responses of horizontal well in triple media carbonate reservoir. The model presented in this article can be applied to obtain important parameters pertinent to reservoir by type curve matching.

Importance of the predator's ecological neighborhood in modeling predation on migrating prey

USGS Publications Warehouse

DeAngelis, Donald L.; Petersen, James H.

2001-01-01

Most mathematical descriptions of predator-prey interactions fail to take into account the spatio-temporal structures of the populations, which can lead to errors or misinterpretations. For example, a compact pulse of prey migrating through a field of quasi-stationary predators may not be well described by standard predator-prey models, because the predators and prey are unlikely to be well mixed; that is, the prey may be exposed to only a fraction of the predator population at a time. This underscores the importance of properly accounting for the ecological neighborhood, or effective feeding range, of predators in models. We illustrate this situation with a series of models of salmon smolts migrating through a reservoir arrayed with predators. The reservoir is divided into a number of longitudinal compartments or spatial cells, the length of each cell representing the upstream-downstream range over which predators can forage. In this series of models a 100-km-long reservoir is divided, successively into 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 200, and 400 cells, with respective cell lengths of 50, 20, 10, 4, 2, 1, 0.5, and 0.25 km. We used a detailed individual-based simulation model at first, but to ensure robustness of results we supplemented this with a simple analytic model. Both models showed sharp differences in the predicted mortality to a compact pulse of smolt prey moving through the reservoir, depending on the number of spatial cells in the model. In particular, models with fewer than about 10 cells vastly overpredicted the amount of mortality due to predators with activity ranges of not more than a few kilometers. These results corroborate recent theoretical and simulation studies on the importance of spatial scale and behavior in modeling predator-prey dynamics.

Building more realistic reservoir optimization models using data mining - A case study of Shelbyville Reservoir

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Cai, Ximing

2011-06-01

In this paper, we promote a novel approach to develop reservoir operation routines by learning from historical hydrologic information and reservoir operations. The proposed framework involves a knowledge discovery step to learn the real drivers of reservoir decision making and to subsequently build a more realistic (enhanced) model formulation using stochastic dynamic programming (SDP). The enhanced SDP model is compared to two classic SDP formulations using Lake Shelbyville, a reservoir on the Kaskaskia River in Illinois, as a case study. From a data mining procedure with monthly data, the past month's inflow ( Qt-1 ), current month's inflow ( Qt), past month's release ( Rt-1 ), and past month's Palmer drought severity index ( PDSIt-1 ) are identified as important state variables in the enhanced SDP model for Shelbyville Reservoir. When compared to a weekly enhanced SDP model of the same case study, a different set of state variables and constraints are extracted. Thus different time scales for the model require different information. We demonstrate that adding additional state variables improves the solution by shifting the Pareto front as expected while using new constraints and the correct objective function can significantly reduce the difference between derived policies and historical practices. The study indicates that the monthly enhanced SDP model resembles historical records more closely and yet provides lower expected average annual costs than either of the two classic formulations (25.4% and 4.5% reductions, respectively). The weekly enhanced SDP model is compared to the monthly enhanced SDP, and it shows that acquiring the correct temporal scale is crucial to model reservoir operation for particular objectives.

Geological model of supercritical geothermal reservoir related to subduction system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsuchiya, Noriyoshi

2017-04-01

Following the Great East Japan Earthquake and the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear power station on 3.11 (11th March) 2011, geothermal energy came to be considered one of the most promising sources of renewable energy for the future in Japan. The temperatures of geothermal fields operating in Japan range from 200 to 300 °C (average 250 °C), and the depths range from 1000 to 2000 m (average 1500 m). In conventional geothermal reservoirs, the mechanical behavior of the rocks is presumed to be brittle, and convection of the hydrothermal fluid through existing network is the main method of circulation in the reservoir. In order to minimize induced seismicity, a rock mass that is "beyond brittle" is one possible candidate, because the rock mechanics of "beyond brittle" material is one of plastic deformation rather than brittle failure. Supercritical geothermal resources could be evaluated in terms of present volcanic activities, thermal structure, dimension of hydrothermal circulation, properties of fracture system, depth of heat source, depth of brittle factures zone, dimension of geothermal reservoir. On the basis of the GIS, potential of supercritical geothermal resources could be characterized into the following four categories. 1. Promising: surface manifestation d shallow high temperature, 2 Probability: high geothermal gradient, 3 Possibility: Aseismic zone which indicates an existence of melt, 4 Potential : low velocity zone which indicates magma input. Base on geophysical data for geothermal reservoirs, we have propose adequate tectonic model of development of the supercritical geothermal reservoirs. To understand the geological model of a supercritical geothermal reservoir, granite-porphyry system, which had been formed in subduction zone, was investigated as a natural analog of the supercritical geothermal energy system. Quartz veins, hydrothermal breccia veins, and glassy veins are observed in a granitic body. The glassy veins formed at 500-550 °C under lithostatic pressures, and then pressures dropped drastically. The solubility of silica also dropped, resulting in formation of quartz veins under a hydrostatic pressure regime. Connections between the lithostatic and hydrostatic pressure regimes were key to the formation of the hydrothermal breccia veins, and the granite-porphyry system provides useful information for creation of fracture clouds in supercritical geothermal reservoirs. A granite-porphyry system, associated with hydrothermal activity and mineralization, provides a suitable natural analog for studying a deep-seated geothermal reservoir where stockwork fracture systems are created in the presence of supercritical geothermal fluids. I describe fracture networks and their formation mechanisms using petrology and fluid inclusion studies in order to understand this "beyond brittle" supercritical geothermal reservoir, and a geological model for "Beyond Brittle" and "Supercritical" geothermal reservoir in the subduction zone were was revealed.

Modelling CO2 emissions from water surface of a boreal hydroelectric reservoir.

PubMed

Wang, Weifeng; Roulet, Nigel T; Kim, Youngil; Strachan, Ian B; Del Giorgio, Paul; Prairie, Yves T; Tremblay, Alain

2018-01-15

To quantify CO 2 emissions from water surface of a reservoir that was shaped by flooding the boreal landscape, we developed a daily time-step reservoir biogeochemistry model. We calibrated the model using the measured concentrations of dissolved organic and inorganic carbon (C) in a young boreal hydroelectric reservoir, Eastmain-1 (EM-1), in northern Quebec, Canada. We validated the model against observed CO 2 fluxes from an eddy covariance tower in the middle of EM-1. The model predicted the variability of CO 2 emissions reasonably well compared to the observations (root mean square error: 0.4-1.3gCm -2 day -1 , revised Willmott index: 0.16-0.55). In particular, we demonstrated that the annual reservoir surface effluxes were initially high, steeply declined in the first three years, and then steadily decreased to ~115gCm -2 yr -1 with increasing reservoir age over the estimated "engineering" reservoir lifetime (i.e., 100years). Sensitivity analyses revealed that increasing air temperature stimulated CO 2 emissions by enhancing CO 2 production in the water column and sediment, and extending the duration of open water period over which emissions occur. Increasing the amount of terrestrial organic C flooded can enhance benthic CO 2 fluxes and CO 2 emissions from the reservoir water surface, but the effects were not significant over the simulation period. The model is useful for the understanding of the mechanism of C dynamics in reservoirs and could be used to assist the hydro-power industry and others interested in the role of boreal hydroelectric reservoirs as sources of greenhouse gas emissions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A new method for calculation of water saturation in shale gas reservoirs using V P -to-V S ratio and porosity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Kun; Sun, Jianmeng; Zhang, Hongpan; Liu, Haitao; Chen, Xiangyang

2018-02-01

Total water saturation is an important parameter for calculating the free gas content of shale gas reservoirs. Owing to the limitations of the Archie formula and its extended solutions in zones rich in organic or conductive minerals, a new method was proposed to estimate total water saturation according to the relationship between total water saturation, V P -to-V S ratio and total porosity. Firstly, the ranges of the relevant parameters in the viscoelastic BISQ model in shale gas reservoirs were estimated. Then, the effects of relevant parameters on the V P -to-V S ratio were simulated based on the partially saturated viscoelastic BISQ model. These parameters were total water saturation, total porosity, permeability, characteristic squirt-flow length, fluid viscosity and sonic frequency. The simulation results showed that the main factors influencing V P -to-V S ratio were total porosity and total water saturation. When the permeability and the characteristic squirt-flow length changed slightly for a particular shale gas reservoir, their influences could be neglected. Then an empirical equation for total water saturation with respect to total porosity and V P -to-V S ratio was obtained according to the experimental data. Finally, the new method was successfully applied to estimate total water saturation in a sequence formation of shale gas reservoirs. Practical applications have shown good agreement with the results calculated by the Archie model.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Parra, J.; Collier, H.; Angstman, B.

In low porosity, low permeability zones, natural fractures are the primary source of permeability which affect both production and injection of fluids. The open fractures do not contribute much to porosity, but they provide an increased drainage network to any porosity. An important approach to characterizing the fracture orientation and fracture permeability of reservoir formations is one based upon the effects of such conditions on the propagation of acoustic and seismic waves in the rock. We present the feasibility of using seismic measurement techniques to map the fracture zones between wells spaced 2400 ft at depths of about 1000 ft.more » For this purpose we constructed computer models (which include azimuthal anisotropy) using Lodgepole reservoir parameters to predict seismic signatures recorded at the borehole scale, crosswell scale, and 3 D seismic scale. We have integrated well logs with existing 2D surfaces seismic to produce petrophysical and geological cross sections to determine the reservoir parameters and geometry for the computer models. In particular, the model responses are used to evaluate if surface seismic and crosswell seismic measurements can capture the anisotropy due to vertical fractures. Preliminary results suggested that seismic waves transmitted between two wells will propagate in carbonate fracture reservoirs, and the signal can be received above the noise level at the distance of 2400 ft. In addition, the large velocities contrast between the main fracture zone and the underlying unfractured Boundary Ridge Member, suggested that borehole reflection imaging may be appropriate to map and fracture zone thickness variation and fracture distributions in the reservoir.« less

Description and quantitative modeling of oolitic reservoir analogs within the lower Kansas City Group (Pennsylvanian), southeastern Kansas

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

French, J.A.; Watney, W.L.

A significant number of petroleum reservoirs within the Kansas City Group in central and western Kansas are dominantly oolitic grainstones that cap 10- to 30-m-thick, shallowing-upward, carbonate-rich depositional sequences. Coeval units that occur at and near the surface in southeastern Kansas contain similar porous lithofacies that have been examined in detail via cores, outcrops, and an extensive log database to better understand the equivalent reservoirs. These studies suggest that individual oolitic, reservoir-quality units in the Bethany Falls Limestone (equivalent to the K zone in the subsurface) developed at several relative sea level stands that occurred during development of a highstandmore » systems tract within this depositional sequence. As many as three grain-rich parasequences may occur at a given location. The occurrence of multiple parasequences indicates a relatively complex history of K-zone deposition, which likely resulted in significant effects on reservoir architecture. Two-dimensional forward modeling of this sequence with our interactive, PC-based software has revealed that limited combinations of parameters such as shelf configuration, eustasy, sedimentation rates, and subsidence rates generate strata successions similar to those observed. Sensitivity analysis coupled with regional characterization of processes suggest ranges of values that these parameters could have had during deposition of these units. The ultimate goal of this modeling is to improve our ability to predict facies development in areas of potential and known hydrocarbon accumulations.« less

Overspill avalanching in a dense reservoir network

PubMed Central

Mamede, George L.; Araújo, Nuno A. M.; Schneider, Christian M.; de Araújo, José Carlos; Herrmann, Hans J.

2012-01-01

Sustainability of communities, agriculture, and industry is strongly dependent on an effective storage and supply of water resources. In some regions the economic growth has led to a level of water demand that can only be accomplished through efficient reservoir networks. Such infrastructures are not always planned at larger scale but rather made by farmers according to their local needs of irrigation during droughts. Based on extensive data from the upper Jaguaribe basin, one of the world’s largest system of reservoirs, located in the Brazilian semiarid northeast, we reveal that surprisingly it self-organizes into a scale-free network exhibiting also a power-law in the distribution of the lakes and avalanches of discharges. With a new self-organized-criticality-type model we manage to explain the novel critical exponents. Implementing a flow model we are able to reproduce the measured overspill evolution providing a tool for catastrophe mitigation and future planning. PMID:22529343

Micro- and macro-scale petrophysical characterization of potential reservoir units from the Northern Israel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haruzi, Peleg; Halisch, Matthias; Katsman, Regina; Waldmann, Nicolas

2016-04-01

Lower Cretaceous sandstone serves as hydrocarbon reservoir in some places over the world, and potentially in Hatira formation in the Golan Heights, northern Israel. The purpose of the current research is to characterize the petrophysical properties of these sandstone units. The study is carried out by two alternative methods: using conventional macroscopic lab measurements, and using CT-scanning, image processing and subsequent fluid mechanics simulations at a microscale, followed by upscaling to the conventional macroscopic rock parameters (porosity and permeability). Comparison between the upscaled and measured in the lab properties will be conducted. The best way to upscale the microscopic rock characteristics will be analyzed based the models suggested in the literature. Proper characterization of the potential reservoir will provide necessary analytical parameters for the future experimenting and modeling of the macroscopic fluid flow behavior in the Lower Cretaceous sandstone.

Understanding CO2 Plume Behavior and Basin-Scale Pressure Changes during Sequestration Projects through the use of Reservoir Fluid Modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Leetaru, H.E.; Frailey, S.M.; Damico, J.; Mehnert, E.; Birkholzer, J.; Zhou, Q.; Jordan, P.D.

2009-01-01

Large scale geologic sequestration tests are in the planning stages around the world. The liability and safety issues of the migration of CO2 away from the primary injection site and/or reservoir are of significant concerns for these sequestration tests. Reservoir models for simulating single or multi-phase fluid flow are used to understand the migration of CO2 in the subsurface. These models can also help evaluate concerns related to brine migration and basin-scale pressure increases that occur due to the injection of additional fluid volumes into the subsurface. The current paper presents different modeling examples addressing these issues, ranging from simple geometric models to more complex reservoir fluid models with single-site and basin-scale applications. Simple geometric models assuming a homogeneous geologic reservoir and piston-like displacement have been used for understanding pressure changes and fluid migration around each CO2 storage site. These geometric models are useful only as broad approximations because they do not account for the variation in porosity, permeability, asymmetry of the reservoir, and dip of the beds. In addition, these simple models are not capable of predicting the interference between different injection sites within the same reservoir. A more realistic model of CO2 plume behavior can be produced using reservoir fluid models. Reservoir simulation of natural gas storage reservoirs in the Illinois Basin Cambrian-age Mt. Simon Sandstone suggest that reservoir heterogeneity will be an important factor for evaluating storage capacity. The Mt. Simon Sandstone is a thick sandstone that underlies many significant coal fired power plants (emitting at least 1 million tonnes per year) in the midwestern United States including the states of Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, and Ohio. The initial commercial sequestration sites are expected to inject 1 to 2 million tonnes of CO2 per year. Depending on the geologic structure and permeability anisotropy, the CO2 injected into the Mt. Simon are expected to migrate less than 3 km. After 30 years of continuous injection followed by 100 years of shut-in, the plume from a 1 million tonnes a year injection rate is expected to migrate 1.6 km for a 0 degree dip reservoir and over 3 km for a 5 degree dip reservoir. The region where reservoir pressure increases in response to CO2 injection is typically much larger than the CO2 plume. It can thus be anticipated that there will be basin wide interactions between different CO2 injection sources if multiple, large volume sites are developed. This interaction will result in asymmetric plume migration that may be contrary to reservoir dip. A basin- scale simulation model is being developed to predict CO2 plume migration, brine displacement, and pressure buildup for a possible future sequestration scenario featuring multiple CO2 storage sites within the Illinois Basin Mt. Simon Sandstone. Interactions between different sites will be evaluated with respect to impacts on pressure and CO2 plume migration patterns. ?? 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Time lapse seismic observations and effects of reservoir compressibility at Teal South oil field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Islam, Nayyer

One of the original ocean-bottom time-lapse seismic studies was performed at the Teal South oil field in the Gulf of Mexico during the late 1990's. This work reexamines some aspects of previous work using modern analysis techniques to provide improved quantitative interpretations. Using three-dimensional volume visualization of legacy data and the two phases of post-production time-lapse data, I provide additional insight into the fluid migration pathways and the pressure communication between different reservoirs, separated by faults. This work supports a conclusion from previous studies that production from one reservoir caused regional pressure decline that in turn resulted in liberation of gas from multiple surrounding unproduced reservoirs. I also provide an explanation for unusual time-lapse changes in amplitude-versus-offset (AVO) data related to the compaction of the producing reservoir which, in turn, changed an isotropic medium to an anisotropic medium. In the first part of this work, I examine regional changes in seismic response due to the production of oil and gas from one reservoir. The previous studies primarily used two post-production ocean-bottom surveys (Phase I and Phase II), and not the legacy streamer data, due to the unavailability of legacy prestack data and very different acquisition parameters. In order to incorporate the legacy data in the present study, all three post-stack data sets were cross-equalized and examined using instantaneous amplitude and energy volumes. This approach appears quite effective and helps to suppress changes unrelated to production while emphasizing those large-amplitude changes that are related to production in this noisy (by current standards) suite of data. I examine the multiple data sets first by using the instantaneous amplitude and energy attributes, and then also examine specific apparent time-lapse changes through direct comparisons of seismic traces. In so doing, I identify time-delays that, when corrected for, indicate water encroachment at the base of the producing reservoir. I also identify specific sites of leakage from various unproduced reservoirs, the result of regional pressure blowdown as explained in previous studies; those earlier studies, however, were unable to identify direct evidence of fluid movement. Of particular interest is the identification of one site where oil apparently leaked from one reservoir into a "new" reservoir that did not originally contain oil, but was ideally suited as a trap for fluids leaking from the neighboring spill-point. With continued pressure drop, oil in the new reservoir increased as more oil entered into the reservoir and expanded, liberating gas from solution. Because of the limited volume available for oil and gas in that temporary trap, oil and gas also escaped from it into the surrounding formation. I also note that some of the reservoirs demonstrate time-lapse changes only in the "gas cap" and not in the oil zone, even though gas must be coming out of solution everywhere in the reservoir. This is explained by interplay between pore-fluid modulus reduction by gas saturation decrease and dry-frame modulus increase by frame stiffening. In the second part of this work, I examine various rock-physics models in an attempt to quantitatively account for frame-stiffening that results from reduced pore-fluid pressure in the producing reservoir, searching for a model that would predict the unusual AVO features observed in the time-lapse prestack and stacked data at Teal South. While several rock-physics models are successful at predicting the time-lapse response for initial production, most fail to match the observations for continued production between Phase I and Phase II. Because the reservoir was initially overpressured and unconsolidated, reservoir compaction was likely significant, and is probably accomplished largely by uniaxial strain in the vertical direction; this implies that an anisotropic model may be required. Using Walton's model for anisotropic unconsolidated sand, I successfully model the time-lapse changes for all phases of production. This observation may be of interest for application to other unconsolidated overpressured reservoirs under production.

Simplified Physics Based Models Research Topical Report on Task #2

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mishra, Srikanta; Ganesh, Priya

We present a simplified-physics based approach, where only the most important physical processes are modeled, to develop and validate simplified predictive models of CO2 sequestration in deep saline formation. The system of interest is a single vertical well injecting supercritical CO2 into a 2-D layered reservoir-caprock system with variable layer permeabilities. We use a set of well-designed full-physics compositional simulations to understand key processes and parameters affecting pressure propagation and buoyant plume migration. Based on these simulations, we have developed correlations for dimensionless injectivity as a function of the slope of fractional-flow curve, variance of layer permeability values, and themore » nature of vertical permeability arrangement. The same variables, along with a modified gravity number, can be used to develop a correlation for the total storage efficiency within the CO2 plume footprint. Similar correlations are also developed to predict the average pressure within the injection reservoir, and the pressure buildup within the caprock.« less

Mineral content prediction for unconventional oil and gas reservoirs based on logging data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maojin, Tan; Youlong, Zou; Guoyue

2012-09-01

Coal bed methane and shale oil &gas are both important unconventional oil and gas resources, whose reservoirs are typical non-linear with complex and various mineral components, and the logging data interpretation model are difficult to establish for calculate the mineral contents, and the empirical formula cannot be constructed due to various mineral. The radial basis function (RBF) network analysis is a new method developed in recent years; the technique can generate smooth continuous function of several variables to approximate the unknown forward model. Firstly, the basic principles of the RBF is discussed including net construct and base function, and the network training is given in detail the adjacent clustering algorithm specific process. Multi-mineral content for coal bed methane and shale oil &gas, using the RBF interpolation method to achieve a number of well logging data to predict the mineral component contents; then, for coal-bed methane reservoir parameters prediction, the RBF method is used to realized some mineral contents calculation such as ash, volatile matter, carbon content, which achieves a mapping from various logging data to multimineral. To shale gas reservoirs, the RBF method can be used to predict the clay content, quartz content, feldspar content, carbonate content and pyrite content. Various tests in coalbed and gas shale show the method is effective and applicable for mineral component contents prediction

Numerical Modeling of Permeability Enhancement by Hydroshearing: the Case of Phase I Reservoir Creation at Fenton Hill

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rutqvist, J.; Rinaldi, A. P.

2017-12-01

The exploitation of a geothermal system is one of the most promising clean and almost inexhaustible forms of energy production. However, the exploitation of hot dry rock (HDR) reservoirs at depth requires circulation of a large amount of fluids. Indeed, the conceptual model of an Enhanced Geothermal System (EGS) requires that the circulation is enhanced by fluid injection. The pioneering experiments at Fenton Hill demonstrated the feasibility of EGS by producing the world's first HDR reservoirs. Such pioneering project demonstrated that the fluid circulation can be effectively enhanced by stimulating a preexisting fracture zone. The so-called "hydroshearing" involving shear activation of preexisting fractures is recognized as one of the main processes effectively enhancing permeability. The goal of this work is to quantify the effect of shear reactivation on permeability by proposing a model that accounts for fracture opening and shearing. We develop a case base on a pressure stimulation experiment at Fenton Hill, in which observation suggest that a fracture was jacked open by pressure increase. The proposed model can successfully reproduce such a behavior, and we compare the base case of pure elastic opening with the hydroshearing model to demonstrate that this latter could have occurred at the field, although no "felt" seismicity was observed. Then we investigate on the sensitivity of the proposed model by varying some of the critical parameters such as the maximum aperture, the dilation angle, as well as the fracture density.

Well-based stable carbon isotope leakage monitoring of an aquifer overlying the CO2 storage reservoir at the Ketzin pilot site, Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nowak, Martin; Myrttinen, Anssi; Zimmer, Martin; van Geldern, Robert; Barth, Johannes A. C.

2014-05-01

At the pilot site for CO2 storage in Ketzin, a new well-based leakage-monitoring concept was established, comprising geochemical and hydraulic observations of the aquifer directly above the CO2 reservoir (Wiese et al., 2013, Nowak et al. 2013). Its purpose was to allow early detection of un-trapped CO2. Within this monitoring concept, we established a stable carbon isotope monitoring of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC). If baseline isotope values of aquifer DIC (δ13CDIC) and reservoir CO2 (δ13CCO2) are known and distinct from each other, the δ13CDIC has the potential to serve as an an early indicator for an impact of leaked CO2 on the aquifer brine. The observation well of the overlying aquifer was equipped with an U-tube sampling system that allowed sampling of unaltered brine. The high alkaline drilling mud that was used during well drilling masked δ13CDIC values at the beginning of the monitoring campaign. However, subsequent monitoring allowed observing on-going re-equilibration of the brine, indicated by changing δ13CDIC and other geochemical values, until values ranging around -23 ‰ were reached. The latter were close to baseline values before drilling. Baselineδ13CDIC and δ13CCO2 values were used to derive a geochemical and isotope model that predicts evolution of δ13CDIC, if CO2 from the reservoir would leak into the aquifer. The model shows that equilibrium isotope fractionation would have to be considered if CO2 dissolves in the brine. The model suggests that stable carbon isotope monitoring is a suitable tool to assess the impact of injected CO2 in overlying groundwater aquifers. However, more data are required to close gaps of knowledge about fractionation behaviour within the CO2(g) - DIC system under elevated pressures and temperatures. Nowak, M., Myrttinen, A., Zimmer, M., Wiese, B., van Geldern, R., Barth, J.A.C., 2013. Well-based, Geochemical Leakage Monitoring of an Aquifer Immediately Above a CO2 Storage Reservoir by Stable Carbon Isotopes at the Ketzin Pilot Site, Germany. Energy Procedia 40, 346-354. Wiese, B., Zimmer, M., Nowak, M., Pellizzari, L., Pilz, P., 2013. Well-based hydraulic and geochemical monitoring of the above zone of the CO2 reservoir at Ketzin, Germany. Environmental Earth Sciences, 1-18.

Nest survival of piping plovers at a dynamic reservoir indicates an ecological trap for a threatened population

USGS Publications Warehouse

Anteau, Michael J.; Shaffer, Terry L.; Sherfy, Mark H.; Sovada, Marsha A.; Stucker, Jennifer H.; Wiltermuth, Mark T.

2012-01-01

In the past 60 years, reservoirs have reshaped riverine ecosystems and transformed breeding habitats used by the threatened piping plover (Charadrius melodus; hereafter plover). Currently, 29% of the Northern Great Plains plover population nests at reservoirs that might function as ecological traps because reservoirs have more diverse habitat features and greater dynamics in water levels than habitats historically used by breeding plovers. We examined factors influencing daily survival rates (DSR) of 346 plover nests at Lake Sakakawea (SAK; reservoir) during 2006–2009 by evaluating multiple a priori models, and we used our best model to hindcast nest success of plovers during 1985–2009. Our observed and hindcast estimates of nest success were low compared to published estimates. Previous findings indicate that plovers prefer nest sites that are low relative to water level. We found that elevation of nests above the water level had a strong positive correlation with DSR because water levels of SAK typically increased throughout the nesting period. Habitat characteristics on the reservoir differ from those that shaped nest-site selection for plovers. Accordingly, extraordinary nest loss occurs there in many years, largely due to inundation of nests, and based on low fledging rates those losses were not compensated by potential changes in chick survival. Therefore, our example supports the concept of ecological traps in birds because it addresses quantitative assessments of habitat preference and productivity over 25 years (since species listing) and affects a large portion of the population.

3D hybrid tectono-stochastic modeling of naturally fractured reservoir: Application of finite element method and stochastic simulation technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gholizadeh Doonechaly, N.; Rahman, S. S.

2012-05-01

Simulation of naturally fractured reservoirs offers significant challenges due to the lack of a methodology that can utilize field data. To date several methods have been proposed by authors to characterize naturally fractured reservoirs. Among them is the unfolding/folding method which offers some degree of accuracy in estimating the probability of the existence of fractures in a reservoir. Also there are statistical approaches which integrate all levels of field data to simulate the fracture network. This approach, however, is dependent on the availability of data sources, such as seismic attributes, core descriptions, well logs, etc. which often make it difficult to obtain field wide. In this study a hybrid tectono-stochastic simulation is proposed to characterize a naturally fractured reservoir. A finite element based model is used to simulate the tectonic event of folding and unfolding of a geological structure. A nested neuro-stochastic technique is used to develop the inter-relationship between the data and at the same time it utilizes the sequential Gaussian approach to analyze field data along with fracture probability data. This approach has the ability to overcome commonly experienced discontinuity of the data in both horizontal and vertical directions. This hybrid technique is used to generate a discrete fracture network of a specific Australian gas reservoir, Palm Valley in the Northern Territory. Results of this study have significant benefit in accurately describing fluid flow simulation and well placement for maximal hydrocarbon recovery.

Reservoirs and petroleum systems of the Gulf Coast

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pitman, Janet K.

2010-01-01

This GIS product was designed to provide a quick look at the ages and products (oil or gas) of major reservoir intervals with respect to the different petroleum systems that have been identified in the Gulf Coast Region. The three major petroleum source-rock systems are the Tertiary (Paleocene-Eocene) Wilcox Formation, Cretaceous (Turonian) Eagle Ford Formation, and Jurassic (Oxfordian) Smackover Formation. The ages of the reservoir units extend from Jurassic to Pleistocene. By combining various GIS layers, the user can gain insights into the maximum extent of each petroleum system and the pathways for petroleum migration from the source rocks to traps. Interpretations based on these data should improve development of exploration models for this petroleum-rich province.

Numerical simulations of the Macondo well blowout reveal strong control of oil flow by reservoir permeability and exsolution of gas

PubMed Central

Oldenburg, Curtis M.; Freifeld, Barry M.; Pruess, Karsten; Pan, Lehua; Finsterle, Stefan; Moridis, George J.

2012-01-01

In response to the urgent need for estimates of the oil and gas flow rate from the Macondo well MC252-1 blowout, we assembled a small team and carried out oil and gas flow simulations using the TOUGH2 codes over two weeks in mid-2010. The conceptual model included the oil reservoir and the well with a top boundary condition located at the bottom of the blowout preventer. We developed a fluid properties module (Eoil) applicable to a simple two-phase and two-component oil-gas system. The flow of oil and gas was simulated using T2Well, a coupled reservoir-wellbore flow model, along with iTOUGH2 for sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification. The most likely oil flow rate estimated from simulations based on the data available in early June 2010 was about 100,000 bbl/d (barrels per day) with a corresponding gas flow rate of 300 MMscf/d (million standard cubic feet per day) assuming the well was open to the reservoir over 30 m of thickness. A Monte Carlo analysis of reservoir and fluid properties provided an uncertainty distribution with a long tail extending down to 60,000 bbl/d of oil (170 MMscf/d of gas). The flow rate was most strongly sensitive to reservoir permeability. Conceptual model uncertainty was also significant, particularly with regard to the length of the well that was open to the reservoir. For fluid-entry interval length of 1.5 m, the oil flow rate was about 56,000 bbl/d. Sensitivity analyses showed that flow rate was not very sensitive to pressure-drop across the blowout preventer due to the interplay between gas exsolution and oil flow rate. PMID:21730177

EFFECT OF TRITIUM AND DECAY HELIUM ON WELDMENT FRACTURE TOUGHNESS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Morgan, M; Scott West, S; Michael Tosten, M

2006-09-26

The fracture toughness data collected in this study are needed to assess the long-term effects of tritium and its decay product on tritium reservoirs. The results show that tritium and decay helium have negative effects on the fracture toughness properties of stainless steel and its weldments. The data and report from this study has been included in a material property database for use in tritium reservoir modeling efforts like the Technology Investment Program ''Lifecycle Engineering for Tritium Reservoirs''. A number of conclusions can be drawn from the data: (1) For unexposed Type 304L stainless steel, the fracture toughness of weldmentsmore » was two to three times higher than the base metal toughness. (2) Tritium exposure lowered the fracture toughness properties of both base metals and weldments. This was characterized by lower J{sub Q} values and lower J-da curves. (3) Tritium-exposed-and-aged base metals and weldments had lower fracture toughness values than unexposed ones but still retained good toughness properties.« less

Multi variate regression model of the water level and production rate time series of the geothermal reservoir Waiwera (New Zealand)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kühn, Michael; Schöne, Tim

2017-04-01

Water management tools are essential to ensure the conservation of natural resources. The geothermal hot water reservoir below the village of Waiwera, on the Northern Island of New Zealand is used commercially since 1863. The continuous production of 50 °C hot geothermal water, to supply hotels and spas, has a negative impact on the reservoir. Until the year 1969 from all wells drilled the warm water flow was artesian. Due to overproduction the water needs to be pumped up nowadays. Further, within the years 1975 to 1976 the warm water seeps on the beach of Waiwera ran dry. In order to protect the reservoir and the historical and tourist site in the early 1980s a water management plan was deployed. The "Auckland Council" established guidelines to enable a sustainable management of the resource [1]. The management plan demands that the water level in the official and appropriate observation well of the council is 0.5 m above sea level throughout the year in average. Almost four decades of data (since 1978 until today) are now available [2]. For a sustainable water management, it is necessary to be able to forecast the water level as a function of the production rates in the production wells. The best predictions are provided by a multivariate regression model of the water level and production rate time series, which takes into account the production rates of individual wells. It is based on the inversely proportional relationship between the independent variable (production rate) and the dependent variable (measured water level). In production scenarios, a maximum total production rate of approx. 1,100 m3 / day is determined in order to comply with the guidelines of the "Auckland Council". [1] Kühn M., Stöfen H. (2005) A reactive flow model of the geothermal reservoir Waiwera, New Zealand. Hydrogeology Journal 13, 606-626, doi: 10.1007/s10040-004-0377-6 [2] Kühn M., Altmannsberger C. (2016) Assessment of data driven and process based water management tools for the geothermal reservoir Waiwera (New Zealand). Energy Procedia 97, 403-410, doi: 10.1016/j.egypro.2016.10.034

Multi-time scale Climate Informed Stochastic Hybrid Simulation-Optimization Model (McISH model) for Multi-Purpose Reservoir System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, M.; Lall, U.

2013-12-01

In order to mitigate the impacts of climate change, proactive management strategies to operate reservoirs and dams are needed. A multi-time scale climate informed stochastic model is developed to optimize the operations for a multi-purpose single reservoir by simulating decadal, interannual, seasonal and sub-seasonal variability. We apply the model to a setting motivated by the largest multi-purpose dam in N. India, the Bhakhra reservoir on the Sutlej River, a tributary of the Indus. This leads to a focus on timing and amplitude of the flows for the monsoon and snowmelt periods. The flow simulations are constrained by multiple sources of historical data and GCM future projections, that are being developed through a NSF funded project titled 'Decadal Prediction and Stochastic Simulation of Hydroclimate Over Monsoon Asia'. The model presented is a multilevel, nonlinear programming model that aims to optimize the reservoir operating policy on a decadal horizon and the operation strategy on an updated annual basis. The model is hierarchical, in terms of having a structure that two optimization models designated for different time scales are nested as a matryoshka doll. The two optimization models have similar mathematical formulations with some modifications to meet the constraints within that time frame. The first level of the model is designated to provide optimization solution for policy makers to determine contracted annual releases to different uses with a prescribed reliability; the second level is a within-the-period (e.g., year) operation optimization scheme that allocates the contracted annual releases on a subperiod (e.g. monthly) basis, with additional benefit for extra release and penalty for failure. The model maximizes the net benefit of irrigation, hydropower generation and flood control in each of the periods. The model design thus facilitates the consistent application of weather and climate forecasts to improve operations of reservoir systems. The decadal flow simulations are re-initialized every year with updated climate projections to improve the reliability of the operation rules for the next year, within which the seasonal operation strategies are nested. The multi-level structure can be repeated for monthly operation with weekly subperiods to take advantage of evolving weather forecasts and seasonal climate forecasts. As a result of the hierarchical structure, sub-seasonal even weather time scale updates and adjustment can be achieved. Given an ensemble of these scenarios, the McISH reservoir simulation-optimization model is able to derive the desired reservoir storage levels, including minimum and maximum, as a function of calendar date, and the associated release patterns. The multi-time scale approach allows adaptive management of water supplies acknowledging the changing risks, meeting both the objectives over the decade in expected value and controlling the near term and planning period risk through probabilistic reliability constraints. For the applications presented, the target season is the monsoon season from June to September. The model also includes a monthly flood volume forecast model, based on a Copula density fit to the monthly flow and the flood volume flow. This is used to guide dynamic allocation of the flood control volume given the forecasts.

Method for inverting reflection trace data from 3-D and 4-D seismic surveys and identifying subsurface fluid and pathways in and among hydrocarbon reservoirs based on impedance models

DOEpatents

He, W.; Anderson, R.N.

1998-08-25

A method is disclosed for inverting 3-D seismic reflection data obtained from seismic surveys to derive impedance models for a subsurface region, and for inversion of multiple 3-D seismic surveys (i.e., 4-D seismic surveys) of the same subsurface volume, separated in time to allow for dynamic fluid migration, such that small scale structure and regions of fluid and dynamic fluid flow within the subsurface volume being studied can be identified. The method allows for the mapping and quantification of available hydrocarbons within a reservoir and is thus useful for hydrocarbon prospecting and reservoir management. An iterative seismic inversion scheme constrained by actual well log data which uses a time/depth dependent seismic source function is employed to derive impedance models from 3-D and 4-D seismic datasets. The impedance values can be region grown to better isolate the low impedance hydrocarbon bearing regions. Impedance data derived from multiple 3-D seismic surveys of the same volume can be compared to identify regions of dynamic evolution and bypassed pay. Effective Oil Saturation or net oil thickness can also be derived from the impedance data and used for quantitative assessment of prospective drilling targets and reservoir management. 20 figs.

Method for inverting reflection trace data from 3-D and 4-D seismic surveys and identifying subsurface fluid and pathways in and among hydrocarbon reservoirs based on impedance models

DOEpatents

He, Wei; Anderson, Roger N.

1998-01-01

A method is disclosed for inverting 3-D seismic reflection data obtained from seismic surveys to derive impedance models for a subsurface region, and for inversion of multiple 3-D seismic surveys (i.e., 4-D seismic surveys) of the same subsurface volume, separated in time to allow for dynamic fluid migration, such that small scale structure and regions of fluid and dynamic fluid flow within the subsurface volume being studied can be identified. The method allows for the mapping and quantification of available hydrocarbons within a reservoir and is thus useful for hydrocarbon prospecting and reservoir management. An iterative seismic inversion scheme constrained by actual well log data which uses a time/depth dependent seismic source function is employed to derive impedance models from 3-D and 4-D seismic datasets. The impedance values can be region grown to better isolate the low impedance hydrocarbon bearing regions. Impedance data derived from multiple 3-D seismic surveys of the same volume can be compared to identify regions of dynamic evolution and bypassed pay. Effective Oil Saturation or net oil thickness can also be derived from the impedance data and used for quantitative assessment of prospective drilling targets and reservoir management.

Using Geothermal Play Types as an Analogue for Estimating Potential Resource Size

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Terry, Rachel; Young, Katherine

Blind geothermal systems are becoming increasingly common as more geothermal fields are developed. Geothermal development is known to have high risk in the early stages of a project development because reservoir characteristics are relatively unknown until wells are drilled. Play types (or occurrence models) categorize potential geothermal fields into groups based on geologic characteristics. To aid in lowering exploration risk, these groups' reservoir characteristics can be used as analogues in new site exploration. The play type schemes used in this paper were Moeck and Beardsmore play types (Moeck et al. 2014) and Brophy occurrence models (Brophy et al. 2011). Operatingmore » geothermal fields throughout the world were classified based on their associated play type, and then reservoir characteristics data were catalogued. The distributions of these characteristics were plotted in histograms to develop probability density functions for each individual characteristic. The probability density functions can be used as input analogues in Monte Carlo estimations of resource potential for similar play types in early exploration phases. A spreadsheet model was created to estimate resource potential in undeveloped fields. The user can choose to input their own values for each reservoir characteristic or choose to use the probability distribution functions provided from the selected play type. This paper also addresses the United States Geological Survey's 1978 and 2008 assessment of geothermal resources by comparing their estimated values to reported values from post-site development. Information from the collected data was used in the comparison for thirty developed sites in the United States. No significant trends or suggestions for methodologies could be made by the comparison.« less

Development and testing of a fast conceptual river water quality model.

PubMed

Keupers, Ingrid; Willems, Patrick

2017-04-15

Modern, model based river quality management strongly relies on river water quality models to simulate the temporal and spatial evolution of pollutant concentrations in the water body. Such models are typically constructed by extending detailed hydrodynamic models with a component describing the advection-diffusion and water quality transformation processes in a detailed, physically based way. This approach is too computational time demanding, especially when simulating long time periods that are needed for statistical analysis of the results or when model sensitivity analysis, calibration and validation require a large number of model runs. To overcome this problem, a structure identification method to set up a conceptual river water quality model has been developed. Instead of calculating the water quality concentrations at each water level and discharge node, the river branch is divided into conceptual reservoirs based on user information such as location of interest and boundary inputs. These reservoirs are modelled as Plug Flow Reactor (PFR) and Continuously Stirred Tank Reactor (CSTR) to describe advection and diffusion processes. The same water quality transformation processes as in the detailed models are considered but with adjusted residence times based on the hydrodynamic simulation results and calibrated to the detailed water quality simulation results. The developed approach allows for a much faster calculation time (factor 10 5 ) without significant loss of accuracy, making it feasible to perform time demanding scenario runs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The architecture of dynamic reservoir in the echo state network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cui, Hongyan; Liu, Xiang; Li, Lixiang

2012-09-01

Echo state network (ESN) has recently attracted increasing interests because of its superior capability in modeling nonlinear dynamic systems. In the conventional echo state network model, its dynamic reservoir (DR) has a random and sparse topology, which is far from the real biological neural networks from both structural and functional perspectives. We hereby propose three novel types of echo state networks with new dynamic reservoir topologies based on complex network theory, i.e., with a small-world topology, a scale-free topology, and a mixture of small-world and scale-free topologies, respectively. We then analyze the relationship between the dynamic reservoir structure and its prediction capability. We utilize two commonly used time series to evaluate the prediction performance of the three proposed echo state networks and compare them to the conventional model. We also use independent and identically distributed time series to analyze the short-term memory and prediction precision of these echo state networks. Furthermore, we study the ratio of scale-free topology and the small-world topology in the mixed-topology network, and examine its influence on the performance of the echo state networks. Our simulation results show that the proposed echo state network models have better prediction capabilities, a wider spectral radius, but retain almost the same short-term memory capacity as compared to the conventional echo state network model. We also find that the smaller the ratio of the scale-free topology over the small-world topology, the better the memory capacities.

Fallon, Nevada FORGE Distinct Element Reservoir Modeling

DOE Data Explorer

Blankenship, Doug; Pettitt, Will; Riahi, Azadeh; Hazzard, Jim; Blanksma, Derrick

2018-03-12

Archive containing input/output data for distinct element reservoir modeling for Fallon FORGE. Models created using 3DEC, InSite, and in-house Python algorithms (ITASCA). List of archived files follows; please see 'Modeling Metadata.pdf' (included as a resource below) for additional file descriptions. Data sources include regional geochemical model, well positions and geometry, principal stress field, capability for hydraulic fractures, capability for hydro-shearing, reservoir geomechanical model-stimulation into multiple zones, modeled thermal behavior during circulation, and microseismicity.

Silurian "Clinton" Sandstone Reservoir Characterization for Evaluation of CO2-EOR Potential in the East Canton Oil Field, Ohio

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Riley, Ronald; Wicks, John; Perry, Christopher

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the efficacy of using CO2-enhanced oil recovery (EOR) in the East Canton oil field (ECOF). Discovered in 1947, the ECOF in northeastern Ohio has produced approximately 95 million barrels (MMbbl) of oil from the Silurian “Clinton” sandstone. The original oil-in-place (OOIP) for this field was approximately 1.5 billion bbl and this study estimates by modeling known reservoir parameters, that between 76 and 279 MMbbl of additional oil could be produced through secondary recovery in this field, depending on the fluid and formation response to CO2 injection. A CO2 cyclic test (“Huff-n-Puff”) wasmore » conducted on a well in Stark County to test the injectivity in a “Clinton”-producing oil well in the ECOF and estimate the dispersion or potential breakthrough of the CO2 to surrounding wells. Eighty-one tons of CO2 (1.39 MMCF) were injected over a 20-hour period, after which the well was shut in for a 32-day “soak” period before production was resumed. Results demonstrated injection rates of 1.67 MMCF of gas per day, which was much higher than anticipated and no CO2 was detected in gas samples taken from eight immediately offsetting observation wells. All data collected during this test was analyzed, interpreted, and incorporated into the reservoir characterization study and used to develop the geologic model. The geologic model was used as input into a reservoir simulation performed by Fekete Associates, Inc., to estimate the behavior of reservoir fluids when large quantities of CO2 are injected into the “Clinton” sandstone. Results strongly suggest that the majority of the injected CO2 entered the matrix porosity of the reservoir pay zones, where it diffused into the oil. Evidence includes: (A) the volume of injected CO2 greatly exceeded the estimated capacity of the hydraulic fracture and natural fractures; (B) there was a gradual injection and pressure rate build-up during the test; (C) there was a subsequent, gradual flashout of the CO2 within the reservoir during the ensuing monitored production period; and (D) a large amount of CO2 continually off-gassed from wellhead oil samples collected as late as 3½ months after injection. After the test well was returned to production, it produced 174 bbl of oil during a 60-day period (September 22 to November 21, 2008), which represents an estimated 58 percent increase in incremental oil production over preinjection estimates of production under normal, conditions. The geologic model was used in a reservoir simulation model for a 700-acre model area and to design a pilot to test the model. The model was designed to achieve a 1-year response time and a five-year simulation period. The reservoir simulation modeling indicated that the injection wells could enhance oil production and lead to an additional 20 percent recovery in the pilot area over a five-year period. The base case estimated that by injecting 500 MCF per day of CO2 into each of the four corner wells, 26,000 STBO would be produced by the central producer over the five-year period. This would compare to 3,000 STBO if a new well were drilled without the benefit of CO2 injection. This study has added significant knowledge to the reservoir characterization of the “Clinton” in the ECOF and succeeded in identifying a range on CO2-EOR potential. However, additional data on fluid properties (PVT and swelling test), fractures (oriented core and microseis), and reservoir characteristics (relative permeability, capillary pressure, and wet ability) are needed to further narrow the uncertainties and refine the reservoir model and simulation. After collection of this data and refinement of the model and simulation, it is recommended that a larger scale cyclic- CO2 injection test be conducted to better determine the efficacy of CO2-EOR in the “Clinton” reservoir in the ECOF.« less

Silurian "Clinton" Sandstone Reservoir Characterization for Evaluation of CO2-EOR Potential in the East Canton Oil Field, Ohio

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ronald Riley; John Wicks; Christopher Perry

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the efficacy of using CO2-enhanced oil recovery (EOR) in the East Canton oil field (ECOF). Discovered in 1947, the ECOF in northeastern Ohio has produced approximately 95 million barrels (MMbbl) of oil from the Silurian 'Clinton' sandstone. The original oil-in-place (OOIP) for this field was approximately 1.5 billion bbl and this study estimates by modeling known reservoir parameters, that between 76 and 279 MMbbl of additional oil could be produced through secondary recovery in this field, depending on the fluid and formation response to CO2 injection. A CO2 cyclic test ('Huff-n-Puff') wasmore » conducted on a well in Stark County to test the injectivity in a 'Clinton'-producing oil well in the ECOF and estimate the dispersion or potential breakthrough of the CO2 to surrounding wells. Eighty-one tons of CO2 (1.39 MMCF) were injected over a 20-hour period, after which the well was shut in for a 32-day 'soak' period before production was resumed. Results demonstrated injection rates of 1.67 MMCF of gas per day, which was much higher than anticipated and no CO2 was detected in gas samples taken from eight immediately offsetting observation wells. All data collected during this test was analyzed, interpreted, and incorporated into the reservoir characterization study and used to develop the geologic model. The geologic model was used as input into a reservoir simulation performed by Fekete Associates, Inc., to estimate the behavior of reservoir fluids when large quantities of CO2 are injected into the 'Clinton' sandstone. Results strongly suggest that the majority of the injected CO2 entered the matrix porosity of the reservoir pay zones, where it diffused into the oil. Evidence includes: (A) the volume of injected CO2 greatly exceeded the estimated capacity of the hydraulic fracture and natural fractures; (B) there was a gradual injection and pressure rate build-up during the test; (C) there was a subsequent, gradual flashout of the CO2 within the reservoir during the ensuing monitored production period; and (D) a large amount of CO2 continually off-gassed from wellhead oil samples collected as late as 3 1/2 months after injection. After the test well was returned to production, it produced 174 bbl of oil during a 60-day period (September 22 to November 21, 2008), which represents an estimated 58 percent increase in incremental oil production over preinjection estimates of production under normal, conditions. The geologic model was used in a reservoir simulation model for a 700-acre model area and to design a pilot to test the model. The model was designed to achieve a 1-year response time and a five-year simulation period. The reservoir simulation modeling indicated that the injection wells could enhance oil production and lead to an additional 20 percent recovery in the pilot area over a five-year period. The base case estimated that by injecting 500 MCF per day of CO2 into each of the four corner wells, 26,000 STBO would be produced by the central producer over the five-year period. This would compare to 3,000 STBO if a new well were drilled without the benefit of CO2 injection. This study has added significant knowledge to the reservoir characterization of the 'Clinton' in the ECOF and succeeded in identifying a range on CO2-EOR potential. However, additional data on fluid properties (PVT and swelling test), fractures (oriented core and microseis), and reservoir characteristics (relative permeability, capillary pressure, and wet ability) are needed to further narrow the uncertainties and refine the reservoir model and simulation. After collection of this data and refinement of the model and simulation, it is recommended that a larger scale cyclic-CO2 injection test be conducted to better determine the efficacy of CO2-EOR in the 'Clinton' reservoir in the ECOF.« less

Benchmarking of vertically-integrated CO2 flow simulations at the Sleipner Field, North Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cowton, L. R.; Neufeld, J. A.; White, N. J.; Bickle, M. J.; Williams, G. A.; White, J. C.; Chadwick, R. A.

2018-06-01

Numerical modeling plays an essential role in both identifying and assessing sub-surface reservoirs that might be suitable for future carbon capture and storage projects. Accuracy of flow simulations is tested by benchmarking against historic observations from on-going CO2 injection sites. At the Sleipner project located in the North Sea, a suite of time-lapse seismic reflection surveys enables the three-dimensional distribution of CO2 at the top of the reservoir to be determined as a function of time. Previous attempts have used Darcy flow simulators to model CO2 migration throughout this layer, given the volume of injection with time and the location of the injection point. Due primarily to computational limitations preventing adequate exploration of model parameter space, these simulations usually fail to match the observed distribution of CO2 as a function of space and time. To circumvent these limitations, we develop a vertically-integrated fluid flow simulator that is based upon the theory of topographically controlled, porous gravity currents. This computationally efficient scheme can be used to invert for the spatial distribution of reservoir permeability required to minimize differences between the observed and calculated CO2 distributions. When a uniform reservoir permeability is assumed, inverse modeling is unable to adequately match the migration of CO2 at the top of the reservoir. If, however, the width and permeability of a mapped channel deposit are allowed to independently vary, a satisfactory match between the observed and calculated CO2 distributions is obtained. Finally, the ability of this algorithm to forecast the flow of CO2 at the top of the reservoir is assessed. By dividing the complete set of seismic reflection surveys into training and validation subsets, we find that the spatial pattern of permeability required to match the training subset can successfully predict CO2 migration for the validation subset. This ability suggests that it might be feasible to forecast migration patterns into the future with a degree of confidence. Nevertheless, our analysis highlights the difficulty in estimating reservoir parameters away from the region swept by CO2 without additional observational constraints.

Detecting fluid leakage of a reservoir dam based on streaming self-potential measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Seo Young; Kim, Bitnarae; Nam, Myung Jin; Lim, Sung Keun

2015-04-01

Between many reservoir dams for agriculture in suburban area of South Korea, water leakage has been reported several times. The dam under consideration in this study, which is located in Gyeong-buk, in the south-east of the Korean Peninsula, was reported to have a large leakage at the right foot of downstream side of the reservoir dam. For the detection of the leakage, not only geological survey but also geophysical explorations have been made for precision safety diagnosis, since the leakage can lead to dam failure. Geophysical exploration includes both electrical-resistivity and self-potential surveys, while geological surveys water permeability test, standard penetration test, and sampling for undisturbed sample during the course of the drilling investigation. The geophysical explorations were made not only along the top of dam but also transverse the heel of dam. The leakage of water installations can change the known-heterogeneous structure of the dam body but also cause streaming spontaneous (self) potential (SP) anomaly, which can be detected by electrical resistivity and SP measurements, respectively. For the interpretation of streaming SP, we used trial-and-error method by comparing synthetic SP data with field SP data for model update. For the computation, we first invert the resistivity data to obtain the distorted resistivity structure of the dam levee then make three-dimensional electrical-resistivity modeling for the streaming potential distribution of the dam levee. Our simulation algorithm of streaming SP distribution based on the integrated finite difference scheme computes two-dimensional (2D) SP distribution based on the distribution of calculated flow velocities of fluid for a given permeability structure together with physical properties. This permeability is repeatedly updated based on error between synthetic and field SP data, until the synthetic data match the field data. Through this trial-and-error-based SP interpretation, we locate the leakage of reservoir-water formed locally inside the levee body of the reservoir dam within the limitation due to the 2D nature of stream SP simulation.

Economic Implementation and Optimization of Secondary Oil Recovery

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cary D. Brock

The St Mary West Barker Sand Unit (SMWBSU or Unit) located in Lafayette County, Arkansas was unitized for secondary recovery operations in 2002 followed by installation of a pilot injection system in the fall of 2003. A second downdip water injection well was added to the pilot project in 2005 and 450,000 barrels of saltwater has been injected into the reservoir sand to date. Daily injection rates have been improved over initial volumes by hydraulic fracture stimulation of the reservoir sand in the injection wells. Modifications to the injection facilities are currently being designed to increase water injection rates formore » the pilot flood. A fracture treatment on one of the production wells resulted in a seven-fold increase of oil production. Recent water production and increased oil production in a producer closest to the pilot project indicates possible response to the water injection. The reservoir and wellbore injection performance data obtained during the pilot project will be important to the secondary recovery optimization study for which the DOE grant was awarded. The reservoir characterization portion of the modeling and simulation study is in progress by Strand Energy project staff under the guidance of University of Houston Department of Geosciences professor Dr. Janok Bhattacharya and University of Texas at Austin Department of Petroleum and Geosystems Engineering professor Dr. Larry W. Lake. A geologic and petrophysical model of the reservoir is being constructed from geophysical data acquired from core, well log and production performance histories. Possible use of an outcrop analog to aid in three dimensional, geostatistical distribution of the flow unit model developed from the wellbore data will be investigated. The reservoir model will be used for full-field history matching and subsequent fluid flow simulation based on various injection schemes including patterned water flooding, addition of alkaline surfactant-polymer (ASP) to the injected water, and high pressure air injection (HPAI) for in-situ low temperature oxidization (LTO) will be studied for optimization of the secondary recovery process.« less

CarbonSAFE Rocky Mountain Phase I : Seismic Characterization of the Navajo Reservoir, Buzzard Bench, Utah

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haar, K. K.; Balch, R. S.; Lee, S. Y.

2017-12-01

The CarbonSAFE Rocky Mountain project team is in the initial phase of investigating the regulatory, financial and technical feasibility of commercial-scale CO2 capture and storage from two coal-fired power plants in the northwest region of the San Rafael Swell, Utah. The reservoir interval is the Jurassic Navajo Sandstone, an eolian dune deposit that at present serves as the salt water disposal reservoir for Ferron Sandstone coal-bed methane production in the Drunkards Wash field and Buzzard Bench area of central Utah. In the study area the Navajo sandstone is approximately 525 feet thick and is at an average depth of about 7000 feet below the surface. If sufficient porosity and permeability exist, reservoir depth and thickness would provide storage for up to 100,000 metric tonnes of CO2 per square mile, based on preliminary estimates. This reservoir has the potential to meet the DOE's requirement of having the ability to store at least 50 million metric tons of CO2 and fulfills the DOE's initiative to develop protocols for commercially sequestering carbon sourced from coal-fired power plants. A successful carbon storage project requires thorough structural and stratigraphic characterization of the reservoir, seal and faults, thereby allowing the creation of a comprehensive geologic model with subsequent simulations to evaluate CO2/brine migration and long-term effects. Target formation lithofacies and subfacies data gathered from outcrop mapping and laboratory analysis of core samples were developed into a geologic model. Synthetic seismic was modeled from this, allowing us to seismically characterize the lithofacies of the target formation. This seismic characterization data was then employed in the interpretation of 2D legacy lines which provided stratigraphic and structural control for more accurate model development of the northwest region of the San Rafael Swell. Developing baseline interpretations such as this are crucial toward long-term carbon storage monitoring.

Coupling geostatistics to detailed reservoir description allows better visualization and more accurate characterization/simulation of turbidite reservoirs: Elk Hills oil field, California

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Allan, M.E.; Wilson, M.L.; Wightman, J.

1996-12-31

The Elk Hills giant oilfield, located in the southern San Joaquin Valley of California, has produced 1.1 billion barrels of oil from Miocene and shallow Pliocene reservoirs. 65% of the current 64,000 BOPD production is from the pressure-supported, deeper Miocene turbidite sands. In the turbidite sands of the 31 S structure, large porosity & permeability variations in the Main Body B and Western 31 S sands cause problems with the efficiency of the waterflooding. These variations have now been quantified and visualized using geostatistics. The end result is a more detailed reservoir characterization for simulation. Traditional reservoir descriptions based onmore » marker correlations, cross-sections and mapping do not provide enough detail to capture the short-scale stratigraphic heterogeneity needed for adequate reservoir simulation. These deterministic descriptions are inadequate to tie with production data as the thinly bedded sand/shale sequences blur into a falsely homogenous picture. By studying the variability of the geologic & petrophysical data vertically within each wellbore and spatially from well to well, a geostatistical reservoir description has been developed. It captures the natural variability of the sands and shales that was lacking from earlier work. These geostatistical studies allow the geologic and petrophysical characteristics to be considered in a probabilistic model. The end-product is a reservoir description that captures the variability of the reservoir sequences and can be used as a more realistic starting point for history matching and reservoir simulation.« less

Coupling geostatistics to detailed reservoir description allows better visualization and more accurate characterization/simulation of turbidite reservoirs: Elk Hills oil field, California

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Allan, M.E.; Wilson, M.L.; Wightman, J.

1996-01-01

The Elk Hills giant oilfield, located in the southern San Joaquin Valley of California, has produced 1.1 billion barrels of oil from Miocene and shallow Pliocene reservoirs. 65% of the current 64,000 BOPD production is from the pressure-supported, deeper Miocene turbidite sands. In the turbidite sands of the 31 S structure, large porosity permeability variations in the Main Body B and Western 31 S sands cause problems with the efficiency of the waterflooding. These variations have now been quantified and visualized using geostatistics. The end result is a more detailed reservoir characterization for simulation. Traditional reservoir descriptions based on markermore » correlations, cross-sections and mapping do not provide enough detail to capture the short-scale stratigraphic heterogeneity needed for adequate reservoir simulation. These deterministic descriptions are inadequate to tie with production data as the thinly bedded sand/shale sequences blur into a falsely homogenous picture. By studying the variability of the geologic petrophysical data vertically within each wellbore and spatially from well to well, a geostatistical reservoir description has been developed. It captures the natural variability of the sands and shales that was lacking from earlier work. These geostatistical studies allow the geologic and petrophysical characteristics to be considered in a probabilistic model. The end-product is a reservoir description that captures the variability of the reservoir sequences and can be used as a more realistic starting point for history matching and reservoir simulation.« less

The Aplication of Landsat 8 OLI for Total Suspended Solid (TSS) Mapping in Gajahmungkur Reservoir Wonogiri Regency 2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yanti, Apriwida; Susilo, Bowo; Wicaksono, Pramaditya

2016-11-01

Gajahmungkur reservoir is administratively located in Wonogiri Regency, Central Java, with the main function as a flood control in the upstream of Bengawan Solo River. Other functions of the reservoir are as hydroelectric power plant (PLTA), water supply, irrigation, fisheries and tourism. Economic utilization of the reservoir is estimated until 100 years, but it is begun to be threatened by the silting of the reservoir. Eroded materials entering water body will be suspended and accumulated. Suspended Material or TSS (Total Suspended Solid) will increase the turbidity of water, which can affect the quality of water and silting the reservoir. Remote sensing technology can be used to determine the spatial distribution of TSS. The purposes of this study were to 1) utilize and compare the accuracy of single band Landsat 8 OLI for mapping the spatial distribution of TSS and 2) estimate the TSS on Gajahmungkur reservoir surface waters up to the depth of 30 cm. The method used for modelling the TSS spatial distribution is the empirical modelling that integrates image pixel values and field data using correlation analysis and regression analysis. The data used in the empirical modelling are single band of visible, NIR, and SWIR of Landsat 8 OLI, which was acquired on 8 May 2016, and field-measured TSS values based on the field data collection conducted on 12 April 2016. The results revealed that mapping the distribution and the estimated value of TSS in Reservoir Gajahmungkur can be performed more accurately using band 4 (red band). The determinant coefficient between TSS field and TSS value of image using band 4 is 0.5431. The Standard Error (SE) of the predicted TSS value is 16.16 mg/L. The results also showed that the estimated total TSS of May 2016 according to band 4 is 1.087,56 tons. The average estimation of TSS value in up to the depth of 30 cm is 61.61 mg/L. The highest TSS distribution is in the northern parts, which was dominated by eroded materials from Keduang River.

The Need for Modernized Operational Snow Models: A Tale of Two Years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winstral, A. H.; Marks, D. G.

2014-12-01

The Boise River Basin in southwest Idaho, USA contains three major reservoirs totaling nearly 1,000,000 acre-feet of storage capacity. The primary goals for water managers are water supply and flood protection. In terms of observed SWE at monitoring sites throughout the basin, water years 2012 and 2014 were similar and near normal. In WY 2014 inflows into the BRB reservoir system followed historic patterns and reservoir releases were ideally controlled for management goals. WY2012 however was warmer than average and the winter snowpack had uncharacteristically high melt susceptibility. Subsequent energy fluxes produced late winter inflows much higher than normally encountered. The uncharacteristic flow patterns and inability of traditional operational modeling tools to handle this situation challenged water managers. Through late March and early April 2012 near flood stage flows were pushed through the city of Boise in order to increase storage and prevent more catastrophic flooding. While in this case a greater catastrophe was narrowly averted, the shortcomings of the traditional modeling approaches taken by operational agencies were exposed. "Uncharacteristic" events such as these are becoming more and more frequent as the effects of climate change are realized. The need for modernized methods - ones based on the physical controlling processes rather than historic patterns - is imperative. This presentation outlines the latest developments in the application of a physically-based, high-resolution spatial snow model to aid operational water management decisions.

On a model simulating lack of hydraulic connection between a man-made reservoir and the volume of poroelastic rock hosting the focus of a post-impoundment earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chander, Ramesh; Tomar, S. K.

2016-12-01

The idea that a direct hydraulic connection between a man-made reservoir and the foci of post-impoundment earthquakes may not exist at all sites is eminently credible on geological grounds. Our aim is to provide a simple earth model and related theory for use during investigations of earthquakes near new man-made reservoirs. We consider a uniform circular reservoir which rests on the top surface of a no-hydraulic-connection earth model (NHCEM). The model comprises a top elastic (E) layer, an intermediate poroelastic (P) layer, and a bottom elastic half space. The focus of a potential earthquake in the P layer is located directly under the reservoir. The E layer disrupts the hydraulic connection between the reservoir and the focus. Depth of water in the reservoir varies as H ' + hcos( ω t). Expressions for reservoir-induced stresses and pore pressure in different layers of the NHCEM are obtained by solving the boundary-value problem invoking full coupling between mean normal stress and pore pressure in the P layer. As an application of the derived mathematical results, we have examined and found that earthquakes on 60∘ normal faults may occur in the P-layer of a selected NHCEM at epochs of low reservoir level if the reservoir lies mostly in the footwall of the fault. The exercise was motivated by observations of such earthquakes under the man-made Lake Mead after it was impounded.

EXPLOITATION AND OPTIMIZATION OF RESERVOIR PERFORMANCE IN HUNTON FORMATION, OKLAHOMA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mohan Kelkar

2002-03-31

The West Carney Field in Lincoln County, Oklahoma is one of few newly discovered oil fields in Oklahoma. Although profitable, the field exhibits several unusual characteristics. These include decreasing water-oil ratios, decreasing gas-oil ratios, decreasing bottomhole pressures during shut-ins in some wells, and transient behavior for water production in many wells. This report explains the unusual characteristics of West Carney Field based on detailed geological and engineering analyses. We propose a geological history that explains the presence of mobile water and oil in the reservoir. The combination of matrix and fractures in the reservoir explains the reservoir's flow behavior. Wemore » confirm our hypothesis by matching observed performance with a simulated model and develop procedures for correlating core data to log data so that the analysis can be extended to other, similar fields where the core coverage may be limited.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hoak, T.E.; Decker, A.D.

Mesaverde Group reservoirs in the Piceance Basin, Western Colorado contain a large reservoir base. Attempts to exploit this resource base are stymied by low permeability reservoir conditions. The presence of abundant natural fracture systems throughout this basin, however, does permit economic production. Substantial production is associated with fractured reservoirs in Divide Creek, Piceance Creek, Wolf Creek, White River Dome, Plateau, Shire Gulch, Grand Valley, Parachute and Rulison fields. Successful Piceance Basin gas production requires detailed information about fracture networks and subsurface gas and water distribution in an overall gas-centered basin geometry. Assessment of these three parameters requires an integrated basinmore » analysis incorporating conventional subsurface geology, seismic data, remote sensing imagery analysis, and an analysis of regional tectonics. To delineate the gas-centered basin geometry in the Piceance Basin, a regional cross-section spanning the basin was constructed using hydrocarbon and gamma radiation logs. The resultant hybrid logs were used for stratigraphic correlations in addition to outlining the trans-basin gas-saturated conditions. The magnitude of both pressure gradients (paludal and marine intervals) is greater than can be generated by a hydrodynamic model. To investigate the relationships between structure and production, detailed mapping of the basin (top of the Iles Formation) was used to define subtle subsurface structures that control fractured reservoir development. The most productive fields in the basin possess fractured reservoirs. Detailed studies in the Grand Valley-Parachute-Rulison and Shire Gulch-Plateau fields indicate that zones of maximum structural flexure on kilometer-scale structural features are directly related to areas of enhanced production.« less

Modeling strategic competition in hydro-thermal electricity generation markets with cascaded reservoir-hydroelectric generation plants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uluca, Basak

This dissertation aims to achieve two goals. The first is to model the strategic interactions of firms that own cascaded reservoir-hydro plants in oligopolistic and mixed oligopolistic hydrothermal electricity generation markets. Although competition in thermal generation has been extensively modeled since the beginning of deregulation, the literature on competition in hydro generation is still limited; in particular, equilibrium models of oligopoly that study the competitive behavior of firms that own reservoir-hydro plants along the same river in hydrothermal electricity generation markets are still under development. In competitive markets, when the reservoirs are located along the same river, the water released from an upstream reservoir for electricity generation becomes input to the immediate downstream reservoir, which may be owned by a competitor, for current or future use. To capture the strategic interactions among firms with cascaded reservoir-hydro plants, the Upstream-Conjecture approach is proposed. Under the Upstream-Conjecture approach, a firm with an upstream reservoir-hydro plant assumes that firms with downstream reservoir-hydro plants will respond to changes in the upstream firm's water release by adjusting their water release by the same amount. The results of the Upstream Conjecture experiments indicate that firms that own upstream reservoirs in a cascade may have incentive to withhold or limit hydro generation, forcing a reduction in the utilization of the downstream hydro generation plants that are owned by competitors. Introducing competition to hydroelectricity generation markets is challenging and ownership allocation of the previously state-owned cascaded reservoir-hydro plants through privatization can have significant impact on the competitiveness of the generation market. The second goal of the dissertation is to extract empirical guidance about best policy choices for the ownership of the state-owned generation plants, including the cascaded reservoir-hydro plants. Specifically, an equilibrium model of oligopoly, where only private firms compete for electricity supply is proposed. Since some electricity generation markets are better characterized as mixed oligopolies, where the public firm coexists with the private firms for electricity supply, and not as oligopolies, another equilibrium model of mixed oligopoly is proposed. The proposed mixed oligopoly equilibrium model is the first implementation of such market structure in electricity markets. The mathematical models developed in this research are applied to the simplified representation of the Turkish electricity generation market to investigate the impact of various ownership allocation scenarios that may result from the privatization of the state owned generation plants, including the cascaded reservoir-hydro plants, on the competitive market outcomes.

How to improve an un-alterable model forecast? A sequential data assimilation based error updating approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gragne, A. S.; Sharma, A.; Mehrotra, R.; Alfredsen, K. T.

2012-12-01

Accuracy of reservoir inflow forecasts is instrumental for maximizing value of water resources and influences operation of hydropower reservoirs significantly. Improving hourly reservoir inflow forecasts over a 24 hours lead-time is considered with the day-ahead (Elspot) market of the Nordic exchange market in perspectives. The procedure presented comprises of an error model added on top of an un-alterable constant parameter conceptual model, and a sequential data assimilation routine. The structure of the error model was investigated using freely available software for detecting mathematical relationships in a given dataset (EUREQA) and adopted to contain minimum complexity for computational reasons. As new streamflow data become available the extra information manifested in the discrepancies between measurements and conceptual model outputs are extracted and assimilated into the forecasting system recursively using Sequential Monte Carlo technique. Besides improving forecast skills significantly, the probabilistic inflow forecasts provided by the present approach entrains suitable information for reducing uncertainty in decision making processes related to hydropower systems operation. The potential of the current procedure for improving accuracy of inflow forecasts at lead-times unto 24 hours and its reliability in different seasons of the year will be illustrated and discussed thoroughly.

Surrogate Reservoir Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohaghegh, Shahab

2010-05-01

Surrogate Reservoir Model (SRM) is new solution for fast track, comprehensive reservoir analysis (solving both direct and inverse problems) using existing reservoir simulation models. SRM is defined as a replica of the full field reservoir simulation model that runs and provides accurate results in real-time (one simulation run takes only a fraction of a second). SRM mimics the capabilities of a full field model with high accuracy. Reservoir simulation is the industry standard for reservoir management. It is used in all phases of field development in the oil and gas industry. The routine of simulation studies calls for integration of static and dynamic measurements into the reservoir model. Full field reservoir simulation models have become the major source of information for analysis, prediction and decision making. Large prolific fields usually go through several versions (updates) of their model. Each new version usually is a major improvement over the previous version. The updated model includes the latest available information incorporated along with adjustments that usually are the result of single-well or multi-well history matching. As the number of reservoir layers (thickness of the formations) increases, the number of cells representing the model approaches several millions. As the reservoir models grow in size, so does the time that is required for each run. Schemes such as grid computing and parallel processing helps to a certain degree but do not provide the required speed for tasks such as: field development strategies using comprehensive reservoir analysis, solving the inverse problem for injection/production optimization, quantifying uncertainties associated with the geological model and real-time optimization and decision making. These types of analyses require hundreds or thousands of runs. Furthermore, with the new push for smart fields in the oil/gas industry that is a natural growth of smart completion and smart wells, the need for real time reservoir modeling becomes more pronounced. SRM is developed using the state of the art in neural computing and fuzzy pattern recognition to address the ever growing need in the oil and gas industry to perform accurate, but high speed simulation and modeling. Unlike conventional geo-statistical approaches (response surfaces, proxy models …) that require hundreds of simulation runs for development, SRM is developed only with a few (from 10 to 30 runs) simulation runs. SRM can be developed regularly (as new versions of the full field model become available) off-line and can be put online for real-time processing to guide important decisions. SRM has proven its value in the field. An SRM was developed for a giant oil field in the Middle East. The model included about one million grid blocks with more than 165 horizontal wells and took ten hours for a single run on 12 parallel CPUs. Using only 10 simulation runs, an SRM was developed that was able to accurately mimic the behavior of the reservoir simulation model. Performing a comprehensive reservoir analysis that included making millions of SRM runs, wells in the field were divided into five clusters. It was predicted that wells in cluster one & two are best candidates for rate relaxation with minimal, long term water production while wells in clusters four and five are susceptive to high water cuts. Two and a half years and 20 wells later, rate relaxation results from the field proved that all the predictions made by the SRM analysis were correct. While incremental oil production increased in all wells (wells in clusters 1 produced the most followed by wells in cluster 2, 3 …) the percent change in average monthly water cut for wells in each cluster clearly demonstrated the analytic power of SRM. As it was correctly predicted, wells in clusters 1 and 2 actually experience a reduction in water cut while a substantial increase in water cut was observed in wells classified into clusters 4 and 5. Performing these analyses would have been impossible using the original full field simulation model.

Transit losses and traveltimes of reservoir releases along the Arkansas River from Pueblo Reservoir to John Martin Reservoir, southeastern Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Livingston, Russell K.

1978-01-01

The need for accurate information regarding the transit losses and traveltimes associated with releases from Pueblo Reservoir has been stimulated by construction of the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation's Fryingpan-Arkansas Project and a proposed winter-water storage program in Pueblo Reservoir. To meet this need, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Southeastern Colorado Water Conservancy District, studied the Arkansas River from Pueblo Reservoir to John Martin Reservoir, a distance of 142 river miles.The volumes of reservoir releases are decreased or delayed during tran-sit by bank storage, channel storage, and evaporation. Results from a com-puter model, calibrated by a controlled-test release from Pueblo Reservoir, indicate transit losses are greatest for small releases of short duration that are made during periods of low antecedent streamflow. For equivalent releases, transit losses during the winter are about 7 percent less than losses during the summer.Based on available streamflow records, the traveltime of reservoir releases in the study reach ranges from about 1.67 hours per mile at the downstream end of the study reach when antecedent streamflow is 10 cubic feet per second, to about 0.146 hour per mile at the upstream end of the study reach when antecedent streamflow is 3,000 cubic feet per second. Consequently, the traveltime of a release increases as antecedent streamflow diminishes.Management practices that may be used to benefit water users in the study area include selection of the optimum time, rate, and duration of a reservoir release to minimize the transit losses, determination of an accurate traveltime, and diversion at several incremental rates.

Reservoir characterization of the Upper Jurassic geothermal target formations (Molasse Basin, Germany): role of thermofacies as exploration tool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Homuth, S.; Götz, A. E.; Sass, I.

2015-06-01

The Upper Jurassic carbonates of the southern German Molasse Basin are the target of numerous geothermal combined heat and power production projects since the year 2000. A production-orientated reservoir characterization is therefore of high economic interest. Outcrop analogue studies enable reservoir property prediction by determination and correlation of lithofacies-related thermo- and petrophysical parameters. A thermofacies classification of the carbonate formations serves to identify heterogeneities and production zones. The hydraulic conductivity is mainly controlled by tectonic structures and karstification, whilst the type and grade of karstification is facies related. The rock permeability has only a minor effect on the reservoir's sustainability. Physical parameters determined on oven-dried samples have to be corrected, applying reservoir transfer models to water-saturated reservoir conditions. To validate these calculated parameters, a Thermo-Triaxial-Cell simulating the temperature and pressure conditions of the reservoir is used and calorimetric and thermal conductivity measurements under elevated temperature conditions are performed. Additionally, core and cutting material from a 1600 m deep research drilling and a 4850 m (total vertical depth, measured depth: 6020 m) deep well is used to validate the reservoir property predictions. Under reservoir conditions a decrease in permeability of 2-3 magnitudes is observed due to the thermal expansion of the rock matrix. For tight carbonates the matrix permeability is temperature-controlled; the thermophysical matrix parameters are density-controlled. Density increases typically with depth and especially with higher dolomite content. Therefore, thermal conductivity increases; however the dominant factor temperature also decreases the thermal conductivity. Specific heat capacity typically increases with increasing depth and temperature. The lithofacies-related characterization and prediction of reservoir properties based on outcrop and drilling data demonstrates that this approach is a powerful tool for exploration and operation of geothermal reservoirs.

THERMO-HYDRO-MECHANICAL MODELING OF WORKING FLUID INJECTION AND THERMAL ENERGY EXTRACTION IN EGS FRACTURES AND ROCK MATRIX

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Robert Podgorney; Chuan Lu; Hai Huang

2012-01-01

Development of enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) will require creation of a reservoir of sufficient volume to enable commercial-scale heat transfer from the reservoir rocks to the working fluid. A key assumption associated with reservoir creation/stimulation is that sufficient rock volumes can be hydraulically fractured via both tensile and shear failure, and more importantly by reactivation of naturally existing fractures (by shearing), to create the reservoir. The advancement of EGS greatly depends on our understanding of the dynamics of the intimately coupled rock-fracture-fluid-heat system and our ability to reliably predict how reservoirs behave under stimulation and production. Reliable performance predictions ofmore » EGS reservoirs require accurate and robust modeling for strongly coupled thermal-hydrological-mechanical (THM) processes. Conventionally, these types of problems have been solved using operator-splitting methods, usually by coupling a subsurface flow and heat transport simulators with a solid mechanics simulator via input files. An alternative approach is to solve the system of nonlinear partial differential equations that govern multiphase fluid flow, heat transport, and rock mechanics simultaneously, using a fully coupled, fully implicit solution procedure, in which all solution variables (pressure, enthalpy, and rock displacement fields) are solved simultaneously. This paper describes numerical simulations used to investigate the poro- and thermal- elastic effects of working fluid injection and thermal energy extraction on the properties of the fractures and rock matrix of a hypothetical EGS reservoir, using a novel simulation software FALCON (Podgorney et al., 2011), a finite element based simulator solving fully coupled multiphase fluid flow, heat transport, rock deformation, and fracturing using a global implicit approach. Investigations are also conducted on how these poro- and thermal-elastic effects are related to fracture permeability evolution.« less

Reduced-Order Model for Leakage Through an Open Wellbore from the Reservoir due to Carbon Dioxide Injection

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pan, Lehua; Oldenburg, Curtis M.

Potential CO 2 leakage through existing open wellbores is one of the most significant hazards that need to be addressed in geologic carbon sequestration (GCS) projects. In the framework of the National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) which requires fast computations for uncertainty analysis, rigorous simulation of the coupled wellbore-reservoir system is not practical. We have developed a 7,200-point look-up table reduced-order model (ROM) for estimating the potential leakage rate up open wellbores in response to CO 2 injection nearby. The ROM is based on coupled simulations using T2Well/ECO2H which was run repeatedly for representative conditions relevant to NRAP to createmore » a look-up table response-surface ROM. The ROM applies to a wellbore that fully penetrates a 20-m thick reservoir that is used for CO 2 storage. The radially symmetric reservoir is assumed to have initially uniform pressure, temperature, gas saturation, and brine salinity, and it is assumed these conditions are held constant at the far-field boundary (100 m away from the wellbore). In such a system, the leakage can quickly reach quasi-steady state. The ROM table can be used to estimate both the free-phase CO 2 and brine leakage rates through an open well as a function of wellbore and reservoir conditions. Results show that injection-induced pressure and reservoir gas saturation play important roles in controlling leakage. Caution must be used in the application of this ROM because well leakage is formally transient and the ROM lookup table was populated using quasi-steady simulation output after 1000 time steps which may correspond to different physical times for the various parameter combinations of the coupled wellbore-reservoir system.« less

Evaluating and optimizing the operation of the hydropower system in the Upper Yellow River: A general LINGO-based integrated framework

PubMed Central

Si, Yuan; Liu, Ronghua; Wei, Jiahua; Huang, Yuefei; Li, Tiejian; Liu, Jiahong; Gu, Shenglong; Wang, Guangqian

2018-01-01

The hydropower system in the Upper Yellow River (UYR), one of the largest hydropower bases in China, plays a vital role in the energy structure of the Qinghai Power Grid. Due to management difficulties, there is still considerable room for improvement in the joint operation of this system. This paper presents a general LINGO-based integrated framework to study the operation of the UYR hydropower system. The framework is easy to use for operators with little experience in mathematical modeling, takes full advantage of LINGO’s capabilities (such as its solving capacity and multi-threading ability), and packs its three layers (the user layer, the coordination layer, and the base layer) together into an integrated solution that is robust and efficient and represents an effective tool for data/scenario management and analysis. The framework is general and can be easily transferred to other hydropower systems with minimal effort, and it can be extended as the base layer is enriched. The multi-objective model that represents the trade-off between power quantity (i.e., maximum energy production) and power reliability (i.e., firm output) of hydropower operation has been formulated. With equivalent transformations, the optimization problem can be solved by the nonlinear programming (NLP) solvers embedded in the LINGO software, such as the General Solver, the Multi-start Solver, and the Global Solver. Both simulation and optimization are performed to verify the model’s accuracy and to evaluate the operation of the UYR hydropower system. A total of 13 hydropower plants currently in operation are involved, including two pivotal storage reservoirs on the Yellow River, which are the Longyangxia Reservoir and the Liujiaxia Reservoir. Historical hydrological data from multiple years (2000–2010) are provided as input to the model for analysis. The results are as follows. 1) Assuming that the reservoirs are all in operation (in fact, some reservoirs were not operational or did not collect all of the relevant data during the study period), the energy production is estimated as 267.7, 357.5, and 358.3×108 KWh for the Qinghai Power Grid during dry, normal, and wet years, respectively. 2) Assuming that the hydropower system is operated jointly, the firm output can reach 3110 MW (reliability of 100%) and 3510 MW (reliability of 90%). Moreover, a decrease in energy production from the Longyangxia Reservoir can bring about a very large increase in firm output from the hydropower system. 3) The maximum energy production can reach 297.7, 363.9, and 411.4×108 KWh during dry, normal, and wet years, respectively. The trade-off curve between maximum energy production and firm output is also provided for reference. PMID:29370206

Multiphysics simulation of a novel concept of MEMS-based solid propellant thruster for space propulsion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moríñigo, José A.; Hermida-Quesada, José

2011-12-01

This work analyzes a novel MEMS-based architecture of submillimeter size thruster for the propulsion of small spacecrafts, addressing its preliminary characterization of performance. The architecture of microthruster comprises a setup of miniaturized channels surrounding the solid-propellant reservoir filled up with a high-energetic polymer. These channels guide the hot gases from the combustion region towards the nozzle entrance located at the opposite side of the thruster. Numerical simulations of the transient response of the combustion gases and wafer heating in thruster firings have been conducted with FLUENT under a multiphysics modelling that fully couples the gas and solid parts involved. The approach includes the gas-wafer and gas-polymer thermal exchange, burnback of the polymer with a simplified non-reacting gas pyrolysis model at its front, and a slip-model inside the nozzle portion to incorporate the effect of gas-surface and rarefaction onto the gas expansion. Besides, accurate characterization of thruster operation requires the inclusion of the receding front of the polymer and heat transfer in the moving gas-solid interfaces. The study stresses the improvement attained in thermal management by the inclusion of lateral micro-channels in the device. In particular, the temperature maps reveal the significant dependence of the thermal loss on the instantaneous surface of the reservoir wall exposed to the heat flux of hot gases. Specifically, the simulations stress the benefit of implementing such a pattern of micro-channels connecting the exit of the combustion reservoir with the nozzle. The results prove that hot gases flowing along the micro-channels exert a sealing action upon the heat flux at the reservoir wall and partly mitigate the overall thermal loss at the inner-wall vicinity during the burnback. The analysis shows that propellant decomposition rate is accelerated due to surface preheating and it suggests that a delay of the flame extinction into the reservoir is possible. The simulated operation of the thruster concept shows encouraging performance.

Effective water surface mapping in macrophyte-covered reservoirs in NE Brazil based on TerraSAR-X time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Shuping; Foerster, Saskia; Medeiros, Pedro; de Araújo, José Carlos; Waske, Bjoern

2018-07-01

Water supplies in northeastern Brazil strongly depend on the numerous surface water reservoirs of various sizes there. However, the seasonal and long-term water surface dynamics of these reservoirs, particularly the large number of small ones, remain inadequately known. Remote sensing techniques have shown great potentials in water bodies mapping. Yet, the widespread presence of macrophytes in most of the reservoirs often impedes the delineation of the effective water surfaces. Knowledge of the dynamics of the effective water surfaces in the reservoirs is essential for understanding, managing, and modelling the local and regional water resources. In this study, a two-year time series of TerraSAR-X (TSX) satellite data was used to monitor the effective water surface areas in nine reservoirs in NE Brazil. Calm open water surfaces were obtained by segmenting the backscattering coefficients of TSX images with minimum error thresholding. Linear unmixing was implemented on the distributions of gray-level co-occurrence matrix (GLCM) variance in the reservoirs to quantify the proportions of sub-populations dominated by different types of scattering along the TSX time series. By referring to the statistics and the seasonal proportions of the GLCM variance sub-populations the GLCM variance was segmented to map the vegetated water surfaces. The effective water surface areas that include the vegetation-covered waters as well as calm open water in the reservoirs were mapped with accuracies >77%. The temporal and spatial change patterns of water surfaces in the nine reservoirs over a period of two consecutive dry and wet seasons were derived. Precipitation-related soil moisture changes, topography and the dense macrophyte canopies are the main sources of errors in the such-derived effective water surfaces. Independent from in-situ data, the approach employed in this study shows great potential in monitoring water surfaces of different complexity and macrophyte coverage. The effective water surface areas obtained for the reservoirs can provide valuable input for efficient water management and improve the hydrological modelling in this region.

Persistence of low levels of plasma viremia and of the latent reservoir in patients under ART: A fractional-order approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pinto, Carla M. A.

2017-02-01

Low levels of viral load are found in HIV-infected patients, after many years under successful suppressive anti-retroviral therapy (ART). The factors leading to this persistence are still under debate, but it is now more or less accepted that the latent reservoir may be crucial to the maintenance of this residual viremia. In this paper, we study the role of the latent reservoir in the persistence of the latent reservoir and of the plasma viremia in a fractional-order (FO) model for HIV infection. Our model assumes that (i) the latently infected cells may undergo bystander proliferation, without active viral production, (ii) the latent cell activation rate decreases with time on ART, (iii) the productively infected cells' death rate is a function of the infected cell density. The proposed model provides new insights on the role of the latent reservoir in the persistence of the latent reservoir and of the plasma virus. Moreover, the fractional-order derivative distinguishes distinct velocities in the dynamics of the latent reservoir and of plasma virus. The later may be used to better approximations of HIV-infected patients data. To our best knowledge, this is the first FO model that deals with the role of the latent reservoir in the persistence of low levels of viremia and of the latent reservoir.

The aortic reservoir-wave as a paradigm for arterial haemodynamics: insights from three-dimensional fluid-structure interaction simulations in a model of aortic coarctation.

PubMed

Segers, Patrick; Taelman, Liesbeth; Degroote, Joris; Bols, Joris; Vierendeels, Jan

2015-03-01

The reservoir-wave paradigm considers aortic pressure as the superposition of a 'reservoir pressure', directly related to changes in reservoir volume, and an 'excess' component ascribed to wave dynamics. The change in reservoir pressure is assumed to be proportional to the difference between aortic inflow and outflow (i.e. aortic volume changes), an assumption that is virtually impossible to validate in vivo. The aim of this study is therefore to apply the reservoir-wave paradigm to aortic pressure and flow waves obtained from three-dimensional fluid-structure interaction simulations in a model of a normal aorta, aortic coarctation (narrowed descending aorta) and stented coarctation (stiff segment in descending aorta). We found no unequivocal relation between the intraaortic volume and the reservoir pressure for any of the simulated cases. When plotted in a pressure-volume diagram, hysteresis loops are found that are looped in a clockwise way indicating that the reservoir pressure is lower than the pressure associated with the change in volume. The reservoir-wave analysis leads to very high excess pressures, especially for the coarctation models, but to surprisingly little changes of the reservoir component despite the impediment of the buffer capacity of the aorta. With the observation that reservoir pressure is not related to the volume in the aortic reservoir in systole, an intrinsic assumption in the wave-reservoir concept is invalidated and, consequently, also the assumption that the excess pressure is the component of pressure that can be attributed to wave travel and reflection.

The Contribution of Reservoirs to Global Land Surface Water Storage Variations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhou, Tian; Nijssen, Bart; Gao, Huilin

Man-made reservoirs play a key role in the terrestrial water system. They alter water fluxes at the land surface and impact surface water storage through water management regulations for diverse purposes such as irrigation, municipal water supply, hydropower generation, and flood control. Although most developed countries have established sophisticated observing systems for many variables in the land surface water cycle, long-term and consistent records of reservoir storage are much more limited and not always shared. Furthermore, most land surface hydrological models do not represent the effects of water management activities. Here, the contribution of reservoirs to seasonal water storage variationsmore » is investigated using a large-scale water management model to simulate the effects of reservoir management at basin and continental scales. The model was run from 1948 to 2010 at a spatial resolution of 0.258 latitude–longitude. A total of 166 of the largest reservoirs in the world with a total capacity of about 3900 km3 (nearly 60%of the globally integrated reservoir capacity) were simulated. The global reservoir storage time series reflects the massive expansion of global reservoir capacity; over 30 000 reservoirs have been constructed during the past half century, with a mean absolute interannual storage variation of 89 km3. The results indicate that the average reservoir-induced seasonal storage variation is nearly 700 km3 or about 10%of the global reservoir storage. For some river basins, such as the Yellow River, seasonal reservoir storage variations can be as large as 72%of combined snow water equivalent and soil moisture storage.« less

Reservoir Performance Under Future Climate For Basins With Different Hydrologic Sensitivities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mateus, M. C.; Tullos, D. D.

2013-12-01

In addition to long-standing uncertainties related to variable inflows and market price of power, reservoir operators face a number of new uncertainties related to hydrologic nonstationarity, changing environmental regulations, and rapidly growing water and energy demands. This study investigates the impact, sensitivity, and uncertainty of changing hydrology on hydrosystem performance across different hydrogeologic settings. We evaluate the performance of reservoirs in the Santiam River basin, including a case study in the North Santiam Basin, with high permeability and extensive groundwater storage, and the South Santiam Basin, with low permeability, little groundwater storage and rapid runoff response. The modeling objective is to address the following study questions: (1) for the two hydrologic regimes, how does the flood management, water supply, and environmental performance of current reservoir operations change under future 2.5, 50 and 97.5 percentile streamflow projections; and (2) how much change in inflow is required to initiate a failure to meet downstream minimum or maximum flows in the future. We couple global climate model results with a rainfall-runoff model and a formal Bayesian uncertainty analysis to simulate future inflow hydrographs as inputs to a reservoir operations model. To evaluate reservoir performance under a changing climate, we calculate reservoir refill reliability, changes in flood frequency, and reservoir time and volumetric reliability of meeting minimum spring and summer flow target. Reservoir performance under future hydrology appears to vary with hydrogeology. We find higher sensitivity to floods for the North Santiam Basin and higher sensitivity to minimum flow targets for the South Santiam Basin. Higher uncertainty is related with basins with a more complex hydrologeology. Results from model simulations contribute to understanding of the reliability and vulnerability of reservoirs to a changing climate.

3D architecture modeling of reservoir compartments in a Shingled Turbidite Reservoir using high-resolution seismic data and sparse well control, example from Mars {open_quotes}Pink{close_quotes} reservoir, Mississippi Canyon Area, Gulf of Mexico

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chapin, M.A.; Mahaffie, M.J.; Tiller, G.M.

1996-12-31

Economics of most deep-water development projects require large reservoir volumes to be drained with relatively few wells. The presence of reservoir compartments must therefore be detected and planned for in a pre-development stage. We have used 3-D seismic data to constrain large-scale, deterministic reservoir bodies in a 3-D architecture model of Pliocene-turbidite sands of the {open_quotes}E{close_quotes} or {open_quotes}Pink{close_quotes} reservoir, Prospect Mars, Mississippi Canyon Areas 763 and 807, Gulf of Mexico. Reservoir compartmentalization is influenced by stratigraphic shingling, which in turn is caused by low accommodation space predentin the upper portion of a ponded seismic sequence within a salt withdrawal mini-basin.more » The accumulation is limited by updip onlap onto a condensed section marl, and by lateral truncation by a large scale submarine erosion surface. Compartments were suggested by RFT pressure variations and by geochemical analysis of RFT fluid samples. A geological interpretation derived from high-resolution 3-D seismic and three wells was linked to 3-D architecture models through seismic inversion, resulting in a reservoir all available data. Distinguishing subtle stratigraphical shingles from faults was accomplished by detailed, loop-level mapping, and was important to characterize the different types of reservoir compartments. Seismic inversion was used to detune the seismic amplitude, adjust sandbody thickness, and update the rock properties. Recent development wells confirm the architectural style identified. This modeling project illustrates how high-quality seismic data and architecture models can be combined in a pre-development phase of a prospect, in order to optimize well placement.« less

3D architecture modeling of reservoir compartments in a Shingled Turbidite Reservoir using high-resolution seismic data and sparse well control, example from Mars [open quotes]Pink[close quotes] reservoir, Mississippi Canyon Area, Gulf of Mexico

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chapin, M.A.; Mahaffie, M.J.; Tiller, G.M.

1996-01-01

Economics of most deep-water development projects require large reservoir volumes to be drained with relatively few wells. The presence of reservoir compartments must therefore be detected and planned for in a pre-development stage. We have used 3-D seismic data to constrain large-scale, deterministic reservoir bodies in a 3-D architecture model of Pliocene-turbidite sands of the [open quotes]E[close quotes] or [open quotes]Pink[close quotes] reservoir, Prospect Mars, Mississippi Canyon Areas 763 and 807, Gulf of Mexico. Reservoir compartmentalization is influenced by stratigraphic shingling, which in turn is caused by low accommodation space predentin the upper portion of a ponded seismic sequence withinmore » a salt withdrawal mini-basin. The accumulation is limited by updip onlap onto a condensed section marl, and by lateral truncation by a large scale submarine erosion surface. Compartments were suggested by RFT pressure variations and by geochemical analysis of RFT fluid samples. A geological interpretation derived from high-resolution 3-D seismic and three wells was linked to 3-D architecture models through seismic inversion, resulting in a reservoir all available data. Distinguishing subtle stratigraphical shingles from faults was accomplished by detailed, loop-level mapping, and was important to characterize the different types of reservoir compartments. Seismic inversion was used to detune the seismic amplitude, adjust sandbody thickness, and update the rock properties. Recent development wells confirm the architectural style identified. This modeling project illustrates how high-quality seismic data and architecture models can be combined in a pre-development phase of a prospect, in order to optimize well placement.« less

The effect of reservoir geometry, injection and production parameters and permeability structure on induced seismicity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hosseini, S. M.; Goebel, T.; Aminzadeh, F.

2015-12-01

The recent increase in injection induced seismicity (IIS) in previously less seismically active regions highlighted a need for better mitigation strategies and physics-based models of induced seismicity. Previous models of pressure diffusion and fluid flow investigated the change in Coulomb stress as a result of induced pore-pressure perturbations (e.g. Zhang et al., 2013; Keranen et al., 2014; Hornbach et al., 2015; Segall and Lu, 2015). Here, we consider the additional effects of permeability structure, operational parameters and reservoir geometry. We numerically investigate the influence of net fluid injection volumes; linear, radial, and spherical reservoir geometry; as well as reservoir size. The latter can have a substantial effect on changes in Coulomb stress and subsequent induced seismicity. We report on results from two series of model runs, which explored pressure changes caused by wastewater disposal and water flooding. We observed that a typical water flooding operation that includes production wells and injectors has a lower probability of inducing seismicity. Our observations are in agreement with assessment by National Research Council report on induced seismicity (2012). We developed a third suite of models that investigate the effect of permeability structure on injection-induced seismicity. We examine two cases of wastewater disposal in proximity to active faults: 1) in Central Illinois Basin and 2) in central California. In both cases, we observed that the size of the reservoir, presence of faults, and permeability contrast relative to the host rock, strongly influences the pressure changes with distance and time. These pressure changes vary widely but can easily lead to fault instability and seismic activity at up to 10 km distance from the injection well. The results of this study may help to select safe injection sites and operational conditions in order to minimize injection induced seismicity hazard.

3D modeling of carbonates petro-acoustic heterogeneities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baden, Dawin; Guglielmi, Yves; Saracco, Ginette; Marié, Lionel; Viseur, Sophie

2015-04-01

Characterizing carbonate reservoirs heterogeneity is a challenging issue for Oil & Gas Industry, CO2 sequestration and all kinds of fluid manipulations in natural reservoirs, due to the significant impact of heterogeneities on fluid flow and storage within the reservoir. Although large scale (> meter) heterogeneities such as layers petrophysical contrasts are well addressed by computing facies-based models, low scale (< meter) heterogeneities are often poorly constrained because of the complexity in predicting their spatial arrangement. In this study, we conducted petro-acoustic measurements on cores of different size and diameter (Ø = 1", 1.5" and 5") in order to evaluate anisotropy or heterogeneity in carbonates at different laboratory scales. Different types of heterogeneities which generally occur in carbonate reservoir units (e.g. petrographic, diagenetic, and tectonic related) were sampled. Dry / wet samples were investigated with different ultrasonic apparatus and using different sensors allowing acoustic characterization through a bandwidth varying from 50 to 500 kHz. Comprehensive measurements realized on each samples allowed statistical analyses of petro-acoustic properties such as attenuation, shear and longitudinal wave velocity. The cores properties (geological and acoustic facies) were modeled in 3D using photogrammetry and GOCAD geo-modeler. This method successfully allowed detecting and imaging in three dimensions differential diagenesis effects characterized by the occurrence of decimeter-scale diagenetic horizons in samples assumed to be homogeneous and/or different diagenetic sequences between shells filling and the packing matrix. We then discuss how small interfaces such as cracks, stylolithes and laminations which are also imaged may have guided these differential effects, considering that understanding the processes may be taken as an analogue to actual fluid drainage complexity in deep carbonate reservoir.

Inverse geothermal modelling applied to Danish sedimentary basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poulsen, Søren E.; Balling, Niels; Bording, Thue S.; Mathiesen, Anders; Nielsen, Søren B.

2017-10-01

This paper presents a numerical procedure for predicting subsurface temperatures and heat-flow distribution in 3-D using inverse calibration methodology. The procedure is based on a modified version of the groundwater code MODFLOW by taking advantage of the mathematical similarity between confined groundwater flow (Darcy's law) and heat conduction (Fourier's law). Thermal conductivity, heat production and exponential porosity-depth relations are specified separately for the individual geological units of the model domain. The steady-state temperature model includes a model-based transient correction for the long-term palaeoclimatic thermal disturbance of the subsurface temperature regime. Variable model parameters are estimated by inversion of measured borehole temperatures with uncertainties reflecting their quality. The procedure facilitates uncertainty estimation for temperature predictions. The modelling procedure is applied to Danish onshore areas containing deep sedimentary basins. A 3-D voxel-based model, with 14 lithological units from surface to 5000 m depth, was built from digital geological maps derived from combined analyses of reflection seismic lines and borehole information. Matrix thermal conductivity of model lithologies was estimated by inversion of all available deep borehole temperature data and applied together with prescribed background heat flow to derive the 3-D subsurface temperature distribution. Modelled temperatures are found to agree very well with observations. The numerical model was utilized for predicting and contouring temperatures at 2000 and 3000 m depths and for two main geothermal reservoir units, the Gassum (Lower Jurassic-Upper Triassic) and Bunter/Skagerrak (Triassic) reservoirs, both currently utilized for geothermal energy production. Temperature gradients to depths of 2000-3000 m are generally around 25-30 °C km-1, locally up to about 35 °C km-1. Large regions have geothermal reservoirs with characteristic temperatures ranging from ca. 40-50 °C, at 1000-1500 m depth, to ca. 80-110 °C, at 2500-3500 m, however, at the deeper parts, most likely, with too low permeability for non-stimulated production.

Preliminary Three-Dimensional Simulation of Sediment and Cesium Transport in the Ogi Dam Reservoir using FLESCOT – Task 6, Subtask 2

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Onishi, Yasuo; Kurikami, Hiroshi; Yokuda, Satoru T.

2014-03-28

After the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant in March 2011, the Japan Atomic Energy Agency and the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory initiated a collaborative project on environmental restoration. In October 2013, the collaborative team started a task of three-dimensional modeling of sediment and cesium transport in the Fukushima environment using the FLESCOT (Flow, Energy, Salinity, Sediment Contaminant Transport) code. As the first trial, we applied it to the Ogi Dam Reservoir that is one of the reservoirs in the Japan Atomic Energy Agency’s (JAEA’s) investigation project. Three simulation cases under the following different temperature conditions were studied:more » • incoming rivers and the Ogi Dam Reservoir have the same water temperature • incoming rivers have lower water temperature than that of the reservoir • incoming rivers have higher water temperature than that of the reservoir. The preliminary simulations suggest that seasonal temperature changes influence the sediment and cesium transport. The preliminary results showed the following: • Suspended sand, and cesium adsorbed by sand, coming into the reservoirs from upstream rivers is deposited near the reservoir entrance. • Suspended silt, and cesium adsorbed by silt, is deposited farther in the reservoir. • Suspended clay, and cesium adsorbed by clay, travels the farthest into the reservoir. With sufficient time, the dissolved cesium reaches the downstream end of the reservoir. This preliminary modeling also suggests the possibility of a suitable dam operation to control the cesium migration farther downstream from the dam. JAEA has been sampling in the Ogi Dam Reservoir, but these data were not yet available for the current model calibration and validation for this reservoir. Nonetheless these preliminary FLESCOT modeling results were qualitatively valid and confirmed the applicability of the FLESCOT code to the Ogi Dam Reservoir, and in general to other reservoirs in the Fukushima environment. The issues to be addressed in future are the following: • Validate the simulation results by comparison with the investigation data. • Confirm the applicability of the FLESCOT code to Fukushima coastal areas. • Increase computation speed by parallelizing the FLESCOT code.« less

Rock formation characterization for carbon dioxide geosequestration: 3D seismic amplitude and coherency anomalies, and seismic petrophysical facies classification, Wellington and Anson-Bates Fields, Kansas, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ohl, Derek; Raef, Abdelmoneam

2014-04-01

Higher resolution rock formation characterization is of paramount priority, amid growing interest in injecting carbon dioxide, CO2, into subsurface rock formations of depeleting/depleted hydrocarbon reservoirs or saline aquifers in order to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases. In this paper, we present a case study for a Mississippian carbonate characterization integrating post-stack seismic attributes, well log porosities, and seismic petrophysical facies classification. We evaluated changes in petrophysical lithofacies and reveal structural facies-controls in the study area. Three cross-plot clusters in a plot of well log porosity and acoustic impedance corroborated a Neural Network petrophysical facies classification, which was based on training and validation utilizing three petrophysically-different wells and three volume seismic attributes, extracted from a time window including the wavelet of the reservoir-top reflection. Reworked lithofacies along small-throw faults has been revealed based on comparing coherency and seismic petrophysical facies. The main objective of this study is to put an emphasis on reservoir characterization that is both optimized for and subsequently benefiting from pilot tertiary CO2 carbon geosequestration in a depleting reservoir and also in the deeper saline aquifer of the Arbuckle Group, south central Kansas. The 3D seismic coherency attribute, we calculated from a window embracing the Mississippian top reflection event, indicated anomalous features that can be interpreted as a change in lithofacies or faulting effect. An Artificial Neural Network (ANN) lithofacies modeling has been used to better understand these subtle features, and also provide petrophysical classes, which will benefit flow-simulation modeling and/or time-lapse seismic monitoring feasibility analysis. This paper emphasizes the need of paying greater attention to small-scale features when embarking upon characterization of a reservoir or saline-aquifer for CO2 based carbon geosequestration.

Coupling impervious surface rate derived from satellite remote sensing with distributed hydrological model for highly urbanized watershed flood forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dong, L.

2017-12-01

Abstract: The original urban surface structure changed a lot because of the rapid development of urbanization. Impermeable area has increased a lot. It causes great pressure for city flood control and drainage. Songmushan reservoir basin with high degree of urbanization is taken for an example. Pixel from Landsat is decomposed by Linear spectral mixture model and the proportion of urban area in it is considered as impervious rate. Based on impervious rate data before and after urbanization, an physically based distributed hydrological model, Liuxihe Model, is used to simulate the process of hydrology. The research shows that the performance of the flood forecasting of high urbanization area carried out with Liuxihe Model is perfect and can meet the requirement of the accuracy of city flood control and drainage. The increase of impervious area causes conflux speed more quickly and peak flow to be increased. It also makes the time of peak flow advance and the runoff coefficient increase. Key words: Liuxihe Model; Impervious rate; City flood control and drainage; Urbanization; Songmushan reservoir basin

Applicability of WRF-Lake System in Studying Reservoir-Induced Impacts on Local Climate: Case Study of Two Reservoirs with Contrasting Characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, F.; Zhu, D.; Ni, G.; Sun, T.

2017-12-01

Large reservoirs play a key role in regional hydrological cycles as well as in modulating the local climate. The emerging large reservoirs in concomitant with rapid hydropower exploitation in southwestern China warrant better understanding of their impacts on local and regional climates. One of the crucial pathways through which reservoirs impact the climate is lake-atmospheric interaction. Although such interactions have been widely studied with numeric weather prediction (NWP) models, an outstanding limitation across various NWPs resides on the poor thermodynamic representation of lakes. The recent version of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) system has been equipped with a one-dimensional lake model to better represent the thermodynamics of large water body and has been shown to enhance the its predication skill in the lake-atmospheric interaction. In this study, we further explore the applicability of the WRF-Lake system in two reservoirs with contrasting characteristics: Miyun Reservoir with an average depth of 30 meters in North China Plain, and Nuozhadu Reservoir with an average depth of 200 meters in the Tibetan Plateau Region. Driven by the high spatiotemporal resolution meteorological forcing data, the WRF-Lake system is used to simulate the water temperature and surface energy budgets of the two reservoirs after the evaluation against temperature observations. The simulated results show the WRF-Lake model can well predict the vertical profile of water temperature in Miyun Reservoir, but underestimates deep water temperature and overestimates surface temperature in the deeper Nuozhadu Reservoir. In addition, sensitivity analysis indicates the poor performance of the WRF-Lake system in Nuozhadu Reservoir could be attributed to the weak vertical mixing in the model, which can be improved by tuning the eddy diffusion coefficient ke . Keywords: reservoir-induced climatic impact; lake-atmospheric interaction; WRF-Lake system; hydropower exploitation

Climate Change Impacts on River Temperature in the Southeastern United States: A Case Study of the Tennessee River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Y.; Niemeyer, R. J.; Mao, Y.; Yearsley, J. R.; Nijssen, B.

2016-12-01

In the coming decades, climate change and population growth are expected to affect water and energy supply as well as demand in the southeastern United States. Changes in temperature and precipitation impact river flow and stream temperature with implications for hydropower generation, industrial and municipal water supply, cooling for thermo-electric power plants, agricultural irrigation, ecosystem functions and flood control. At the same time, water and energy demand are expected to change in response to temperature increase, population growth and changing crop water requirements. As part of a multi-institution study of the food-energy-water nexus in the southeastern U.S., we are developing coupled hydrological and stream temperature models that will be linked to water resources, power systems and crop models at a later stage. Here we evaluate the ability of our system to simulate water supply and stream temperature in the Tennessee River Basin using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macroscale hydrology model coupled to the River Basin Model (RBM), a 1-D semi-Lagrangian river temperature model, which has recently been expanded with a two-layer reservoir temperature model. Simulations with VIC-RBM were performed for the Tennessee River Basin at 1/8-degree spatial resolution and a temporal resolution of 1 day or less. Reservoir releases were prescribed based on historic operating rules. In future iterations, these releases will be modeled directly by a water resources model that incorporates flood control, and power and agricultural water demands. We compare simulated flows, as well as stream and reservoir temperatures with observed flows and temperatures throughout the basin. In preparation for later stages of the project, we also perform a set of climate change sensitivity experiments to evaluate how changes in climate may impact river and reservoir temperature.

Stress heterogeneity above and within a deep geothermal reservoir: From borehole observations to geomechanical modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seithel, Robin; Peters, Max; Lesueur, Martin; Kohl, Thomas

2017-04-01

Overpressured reservoir conditions, local stress concentrations or a locally rotated stress field can initiate substantial problems during drilling or reservoir exploitation. Increasing geothermal utilization in the Molasse basin area in S-Germany is faced with such problems of deeply seated reservoir sections. In several wells, radial fluid flow systems are interpreted as highly porous layers. However, in nearby wells a combination of linear fluid flow, local stress heterogeneities and structural geology hint to a rather fault dominated reservoir (Seithel et al. 2015). Due to missing knowledge of the stress magnitude, stress orientation and their coupling to reservoir response, we will present a THMC model of critical formations and the geothermal reservoir targeting nearby faults. In an area south of Munich, where several geothermal wells are constructed, such wells are interpreted and integrated into a 30 x 30 km simulated model area. One of the main objectives here is to create a geomechanical reservoir model in a thermo-mechanical manner in order to understand the coupling between reservoir heterogeneities and stress distributions. To this end, stress analyses of wellbore data and laboratory tests will help to calibrate a reliable model. In order to implement the complex geological structure of the studied wedge-shaped foreland basin, an automatic export of lithology, fault and borehole data (e.g. from Petrel) into a FE mesh is used. We will present a reservoir-scale model that considers thermo-mechanic effects and analyze their influence on reservoir deformation, fluid flow and stress concentration. We use the currently developed finite element application REDBACK (https://github.com/pou036/redback), inside the MOOSE framework (Poulet et al. 2016). We show that mechanical heterogeneities nearby fault zones and their orientation within the stress field correlate to fracture pattern, interpreted stress heterogeneities or variegated flow systems within the reservoir. REFERENCES Poulet, T.; Paesold, M.; Veveakis, M. (2016), Multi-Physics Modelling of Fault Mechanics Using REDBACK. A Parallel Open-Source Simulator for Tightly Coupled Problems. Rock Mechanics and Rock Engineering. doi: 10.1007/s00603-016-0927-y. Seithel, R.; Steiner, U.; Müller, B.I.R.; Hecht, Ch.; Kohl, T. (2015), Local stress anomaly in the Bavarian Molasse Basin, Geothermal Energy 3(1), p.77. doi:10.1186/s40517-014-0023-z

Gas Reservoir Identification Basing on Deep Learning of Seismic-print Characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, J.; Wu, S.; He, X.

2016-12-01

Reservoir identification based on seismic data analysis is the core task in oil and gas geophysical exploration. The essence of reservoir identification is to identify the properties of rock pore fluid. We developed a novel gas reservoir identification method named seismic-print analysis by imitation of the vocal-print analysis techniques in speaker identification. The term "seismic-print" is referred to the characteristics of the seismic waveform which can identify determinedly the property of the geological objectives, for instance, a nature gas reservoir. Seismic-print can be characterized by one or a few parameters named as seismic-print parameters. It has been proven that gas reservoirs are of characteristics of negative 1-order cepstrum coefficient anomaly and Positive 2-order cepstrum coefficient anomaly, concurrently. The method is valid for sandstone gas reservoir, carbonate reservoir and shale gas reservoirs, and the accuracy rate may reach up to 90%. There are two main problems to deal with in the application of seismic-print analysis method. One is to identify the "ripple" of a reservoir on the seismogram, and another is to construct the mapping relationship between the seismic-print and the gas reservoirs. Deep learning developed in recent years is of the ability to reveal the complex non-linear relationship between the attribute and the data, and of ability to extract automatically the features of the objective from the data. Thus, deep learning could been used to deal with these two problems. There are lots of algorithms to carry out deep learning. The algorithms can be roughly divided into two categories: Belief Networks Network (DBNs) and Convolutional Neural Network (CNN). DBNs is a probabilistic generative model, which can establish a joint distribution of the observed data and tags. CNN is a feedforward neural network, which can be used to extract the 2D structure feature of the input data. Both DBNs and CNN can be used to deal with seismic data. We use an improved DBNs to identify carbonate rocks from log data, the accuracy rate can reach up to 83%. DBNs is used to deal with seismic waveform data, more information is obtained. The work was supported by NSFC under grant No. 41430323 and No. 41274128, and State Key Lab. of Oil and Gas Reservoir Geology and Exploration.

Transient pressure analysis of a volume fracturing well in fractured tight oil reservoirs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Cheng; Wang, Jiahang; Zhang, Cong; Cheng, Minhua; Wang, Xiaodong; Dong, Wenxiu; Zhou, Yingfang

2017-12-01

This paper presents a semi-analytical model to simulate transient pressure curves for a vertical well with a reconstructed fracture network in fractured tight oil reservoirs. In the proposed model, the reservoir is a composite system and contains two regions. The inner region is described as a formation with a finite conductivity hydraulic fracture network and the flow in the fracture is assumed to be linear, while the outer region is modeled using the classical Warren-Root model where radial flow is applied. The transient pressure curves of a vertical well in the proposed reservoir model are calculated semi-analytically using the Laplace transform and Stehfest numerical inversion. As shown in the type curves, the flow is divided into several regimes: (a) linear flow in artificial main fractures; (b) coupled boundary flow; (c) early linear flow in a fractured formation; (d) mid radial flow in the semi-fractures of the formation; (e) mid radial flow or pseudo steady flow; (f) mid cross-flow; (g) closed boundary flow. Based on our newly proposed model, the effects of some sensitive parameters, such as elastic storativity ratio, cross-flow coefficient, fracture conductivity and skin factor, on the type curves were also analyzed extensively. The simulated type curves show that for a vertical fractured well in a tight reservoir, the elastic storativity ratios and crossflow coefficients affect the time and the degree of crossflow respectively. The pressure loss increases with an increase in the fracture conductivity. To a certain extent, the effect of the fracture conductivity is more obvious than that of the half length of the fracture on improving the production effect. With an increase in the wellbore storage coefficient, the fluid compressibility is so large that it might cover the early stage fracturing characteristics. Linear or bilinear flow may not be recognized, and the pressure and pressure derivative gradually shift to the right. With an increase in the skin effect, the pressure loss increases gradually.

Fluid pressure arrival time tomography: Estimation and assessment in the presence of inequality constraints, with an application to a producing gas field at Krechba, Algeria

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rucci, A.; Vasco, D.W.; Novali, F.

2010-04-01

Deformation in the overburden proves useful in deducing spatial and temporal changes in the volume of a producing reservoir. Based upon these changes we estimate diffusive travel times associated with the transient flow due to production, and then, as the solution of a linear inverse problem, the effective permeability of the reservoir. An advantage an approach based upon travel times, as opposed to one based upon the amplitude of surface deformation, is that it is much less sensitive to the exact geomechanical properties of the reservoir and overburden. Inequalities constrain the inversion, under the assumption that the fluid production onlymore » results in pore volume decreases within the reservoir. We apply the formulation to satellite-based estimates of deformation in the material overlying a thin gas production zone at the Krechba field in Algeria. The peak displacement after three years of gas production is approximately 0.5 cm, overlying the eastern margin of the anticlinal structure defining the gas field. Using data from 15 irregularly-spaced images of range change, we calculate the diffusive travel times associated with the startup of a gas production well. The inequality constraints are incorporated into the estimates of model parameter resolution and covariance, improving the resolution by roughly 30 to 40%.« less

Sensitivity Studies of 3D Reservoir Simulation at the I-Lan Geothermal Area in Taiwan Using TOUGH2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuo, C. W.; Song, S. R.

2014-12-01

A large scale geothermal project conducted by National Science Council is initiated recently in I-Lan south area, northeastern Taiwan. The goal of this national project is to generate at least 5 MW electricity from geothermal energy. To achieve this goal, an integrated team which consists of various specialties are held together to investigate I-Lan area comprehensively. For example, I-Lan geological data, petrophysical analysis, seismicity, temperature distribution, hydrology, geochemistry, heat source study etc. were performed to build a large scale 3D conceptual model of the geothermal potential sites. In addition, not only a well of 3000m deep but also several shallow wells are currently drilling to give us accurate information about the deep underground. According to the current conceptual model, the target area is bounded by two main faults, Jiaosi and Choshui faults. The geothermal gradient measured at one drilling well (1200m) is about 49.1˚C/km. The geothermal reservoir is expected to occur at a fractured geological formation, Siling sandstone layer. The preliminary results of this area from all the investigations are used as input parameters to create a realistic numerical reservoir model. This work is using numerical simulator TOUGH2/EOS1 to study the geothermal energy potential in I-Lan area. Once we can successfully predict the geothermal energy potential in this area and generate 5 MW electricity, we can apply the similar methodology to the other potential sites in Taiwan, and therefore increase the percentage of renewable energy in the generation of electricity. A large scale of three-dimensional subsurface geological model is built mainly based on the seismic exploration of the subsurface structure and well log data. The dimensions of the reservoir model in x, y, and z coordinates are 20x10x5 km, respectively. Once the conceptual model and the well locations are set up appropriately based on the field data, sensitivity studies on production and injection rates, heat source, fractures, and all the relevant parameters are performed to evaluate their effects on temperature distribution of reservoir for 30 years. Through these sensitivity studies, we can design the better geothermal system in I-Lan area and reduce the risk of exploitation.

Seismic imaging of gas hydrate reservoir heterogeneities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Jun-Wei

Natural gas hydrate, a type of inclusion compound or clathrate, are composed of gas molecules trapped within a cage of water molecules. The presence of gas hydrate has been confirmed by core samples recovered from boreholes. Interests in the distribution of natural gas hydrate stem from its potential as a future energy source, geohazard to drilling activities and their possible impact on climate change. However the current geophysical investigations of gas hydrate reservoirs are still too limited to fully resolve the location and the total amount of gas hydrate due to its complex nature of distribution. The goal of this thesis is twofold, i.e., to model (1) the heterogeneous gas hydrate reservoirs and (2) seismic wave propagation in the presence of heterogeneities in order to address the fundamental questions: where are the location and occurrence of gas hydrate and how much is stored in the sediments. Seismic scattering studies predict that certain heterogeneity scales and velocity contrasts will generate strong scattering and wave mode conversion. Vertical Seismic Profile (VSP) techniques can be used to calibrate seismic characterization of gas hydrate expressions on surface seismograms. To further explore the potential of VSP in detecting the heterogeneities, a wave equation based approach for P- and S-wave separation is developed. Tests on synthetic data as well as applications to field data suggest alternative acquisition geometries for VSP to enable wave mode separation. A new reservoir modeling technique based on random medium theory is developed to construct heterogeneous multi-variable models that mimic heterogeneities of hydrate-bearing sediments at the level of detail provided by borehole logging data. Using this new technique, I modeled the density, and P- and S-wave velocities in combination with a modified Biot-Gassmann theory and provided a first order estimate of the in situ volume of gas hydrate near the Mallik 5L-38 borehole. Our results suggest a range of 528 to 768x10 6 m3/km2 of natural gas trapped within hydrate, nearly an order of magnitude lower than earlier estimates which excluded effects of small-scale heterogeneities. Further, the petrophysical models are combined with a 3-D Finite Difference method to study seismic attenuation. Thus a framework is built to further tune the models of gas hydrate reservoirs with constraints from well logs other disciplinary data.

Operational Constraints on Hydropeaking and its Effects on the Hydrologic and Thermal Regime of a River in Central Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olivares, M. A.; Guzman, C.; Rossel, V.; De La Fuente, A.

2013-12-01

Hydropower accounts for about 44% of installed capacity in Chile's Central Interconnected System, which serves most of the Chilean population. Hydropower reservoir projects can affect ecosystems by changing the hydrologic regime and water quality. Given its volumen regulation capacity, low operation costs and fast response to demand fluctuations, reservoir hydropower plants commonly operate on a load-following or hydropeaking scheme. This short-term operational pattern produces alterations in the hydrologic regime downstream the reservoir. In the case of thermally stratified reservoirs, peaking operations can affect the thermal structure of the reservoir, as well as the thermal regime downstream. In this study, we assessed the subdaily hydrologic and thermal alteration donwstream of Rapel reservoir in Central Chile for alternative operational scenarios, including a base case and several scenarios involving minimum instream flow (Qmin) and maximum hourly ramping rates (ΔQmax). Scenarios were simulated for the stratification season of summer 2009-2012 in a grid-wide short-term economic dispatch model which prescribes hourly power production by every power plant on a weekly horizon. Power time series are then translated into time series of turbined flows at each hydropower plants. Indicators of subdaily hydrologic alteration (SDHA) were computed for every scenario. Additionally, turbined flows were used as input data for a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model (CWR-ELCOM) of the reservoir which simulated the vertical temperature profile in the reservoir and the outflow temperature. For the time series of outflow temperatures we computed several indicators of subdaily thermal alteration (SDTA). Operational constraints reduce the values of both SDHA and SDTA indicators with respect to the base case. When constraints are applied separately, the indicators of SDHA decrease as each type of constraint (Qmin or ΔQmax) becomes more stringent. However, ramping rate constraints proved more effective than minimun instream flows. Combined constraints produced even better results. Results for the indicators of SDTA follow a similar trend than that of SDHA. More restrictive operations result in lower values for the indicators. However, the impact of the different constraint scenarios is smaller, as results look alike for all scenarios. Moreover, due to the mixing conditions associated to the operational schemes, mean temperatures increased with respect to the unconstrained case.

Hydrology and model study of the proposed Prosperity Reservoir, Center Creek Basin, southwestern Missouri

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harvey, Edward Joseph; Emmett, Leo F.

1980-01-01

A dam and reservoir have been proposed for construction on Center Creek, Jasper County, in southwestern Missouri. Ground-water levels in the hills adjacent to the reservoir will rise when the impoundment is completed. One of the problems is that the proposed site of Prosperity Reservoir is a few miles upstream from the lead-zinc mining area known as the Oronogo-Duenweg belt. In this belt transmissivities are variable but appear to be higher than they are in the immediate area of the reservoir.Grove Creek lies down-gradient from the reservoir area and separates it from the mining belt. A model study indicates that inflow from the proposed reservoir to the water table could cause water level rises varying from about 20 feet near the reservoir to 0.5 to 1.0 foot in the southern part of Grove Creek drainage basin. These rises will cause significant changes to the natural ground-water flow system. Increased ground-water elevations in the reservoir area could result in increased ground-water gradients and discharge to Grove and Center Creeks. The increase in ground-water discharge to Grove Creek, and in turn Center Creek, will have the beneficial effect of diluting mine-water discharge from the Oronogo-Duenweg belt during periods of low flow.However, if Grove Creek does not act as an effective drain and if conduits extend beneath Grove Creek to transfer the increased water available to the Oronogo-Duenweg belt, the flow regimen could change in the mining belt west of Grove Creek increasing mine-water discharge to Center Creek downstream from the reservoir.Bedrock in the area is Mississippian limestone, the deeply solutioned formation that contained the ore deposits. The limestone in the mining district was greatly altered by solution prior to ore deposition while the limestone in the area of the reservoir was altered less. The extent of the alteration is related to the aquifer characteristics in that high and low values of transmissivity and storage coefficient correspond to greatly altered brecciated rocks in the mining district and less altered, less brecciated rocks in the reservoir area, respectively.The authors suggest that an ancestral east-flowing White River drained the area about Joplin in Late Mississippian time. This is based on the configuration of the contact between Meramecian and Osagean rocks of Mississippian age. A high topographic area existed in the region about Joplin in which the water table stood 200 feet below the land surface when sinkholes and caverns of that depth were formed. The large number of Pennsylvanian-filled sinkholes in the Joplin area and the smaller number to the east suggest a higher land surface to the west than that to the east. The distribution of paleokarst sinkholes supports the conclusion based on the configuration of the Meramecian-Osagean contact.

Reservoir-Based Drug Delivery Systems Utilizing Microtechnology

PubMed Central

Stevenson, Cynthia L.; Santini, John T.; Langer, Robert

2012-01-01

This review covers reservoir-based drug delivery systems that incorporate microtechnology, with an emphasis on oral, dermal, and implantable systems. Key features of each technology are highlighted such as working principles, fabrication methods, dimensional constraints, and performance criteria. Reservoir-based systems include a subset of microfabricated drug delivery systems and provide unique advantages. Reservoirs, whether external to the body or implanted, provide a well-controlled environment for a drug formulation, allowing increased drug stability and prolonged delivery times. Reservoir systems have the flexibility to accommodate various delivery schemes, including zero order, pulsatile, and on demand dosing, as opposed to a standard sustained release profile. Furthermore, the development of reservoir-based systems for targeted delivery for difficult to treat applications (e.g., ocular) has resulted in potential platforms for patient therapy. PMID:22465783

Depositional sequence analysis and sedimentologic modeling for improved prediction of Pennsylvanian reservoirs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Watney, W.L.

1994-12-01

Reservoirs in the Lansing-Kansas City limestone result from complex interactions among paleotopography (deposition, concurrent structural deformation), sea level, and diagenesis. Analysis of reservoirs and surface and near-surface analogs has led to developing a {open_quotes}strandline grainstone model{close_quotes} in which relative sea-level stabilized during regressions, resulting in accumulation of multiple grainstone buildups along depositional strike. Resulting stratigraphy in these carbonate units are generally predictable correlating to inferred topographic elevation along the shelf. This model is a valuable predictive tool for (1) locating favorable reservoirs for exploration, and (2) anticipating internal properties of the reservoir for field development. Reservoirs in the Lansing-Kansas Citymore » limestones are developed in both oolitic and bioclastic grainstones, however, re-analysis of oomoldic reservoirs provides the greatest opportunity for developing bypassed oil. A new technique, the {open_quotes}Super{close_quotes} Pickett crossplot (formation resistivity vs. porosity) and its use in an integrated petrophysical characterization, has been developed to evaluate extractable oil remaining in these reservoirs. The manual method in combination with 3-D visualization and modeling can help to target production limiting heterogeneities in these complex reservoirs and moreover compute critical parameters for the field such as bulk volume water. Application of this technique indicates that from 6-9 million barrels of Lansing-Kansas City oil remain behind pipe in the Victory-Northeast Lemon Fields. Petroleum geologists are challenged to quantify inferred processes to aid in developing rationale geologically consistent models of sedimentation so that acceptable levels of prediction can be obtained.« less

Analytical filtration model for nonlinear viscoplastic oil in the theory of oil production stimulation and heating of oil reservoir in a dual-well system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ivanovich Astafev, Vladimir; Igorevich Gubanov, Sergey; Alexandrovna Olkhovskaya, Valeria; Mikhailovna Sylantyeva, Anastasia; Mikhailovich Zinovyev, Alexey

2018-02-01

Production of high-viscosity oil and design of field development systems for such oil is one of the most promising directions in the development of world oil industry. The ability of high-viscosity oil to show in filtration process properties typical for non-Newtonian systems is proven by experimental studies. Nonlinear relationship between the pressure gradient and the rate of oil flow is due to interaction of high-molecular substances, in particular, asphaltenes and tars that form a plastic structure in it. The authors of this article have used the analytical model of stationary influx of nonlinear viscoplastic oil to the well bottom in order to provide rationale for the intensifying impact on a reservoir. They also have analyzed the method of periodic heating of productive reservoir by means of dual-wells. The high-temperature source is placed at the bottom of the vertical well, very close to the reservoir; at the same time the side well, located outside the zone of expected rock damage, is used for production. Suggested method of systemic treatment of reservoirs with dual wells can be useful for small fields of high-viscosity oil. The effect is based on the opportunity to control the structural and mechanical properties of high-viscosity oil and to increase depletion of reserves.

Assessment of Deep Seated Geothermal Reservoirs in Selected European Sedimentary Environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ungemach, Pierre; Antics, Miklos

2014-05-01

Europe at large enjoys a variety of sedimentary environments. They most often host dependable geothermal reservoirs thus favouring the farming of hot fluids, within the low to medium enthalpy range, among which geothermal district heating (GDH) and combined heat and power (CHP) undertakings hold a dominant share. Three selected reservoir settings, addressing carbonate and clastic deposits, the Central part of the Paris Basin, the Southern Germany Molasse Basin in the Münich area and the Netherland Basin respectively will be presented and the exploratory, modeling and development strategies discussed accordingly. Whereas 2D (reprocessed) and 3D seismics have become a standard in matching the distinctive (reef facies, an echelon faulting, carbonate platform layering) features of a deep buried karst and a key to drilling success in the Molasse Basin, thus emphasizing a leading exploratory rationale, the Netherland and Paris Basin instead benefit from a mature data base inherited from extensive hydrocarbon exploration campaigns, with concerns focused on reservoir modeling and sustainable management issues. As a result the lessons learned from the foregoing have enabled to build up a nucleus of expertise in the whole chain from resource identification to reservoir assessment and market penetration. The seismic risk, indeed a sensitive though somewhat emotional issue, which is requiring special attention and due microseismic monitoring from the geothermal community will also be commented.

Making mushy magma chambers in the lower continental crust: Cold storage and compositional bimodality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jackson, Matthew; Blundy, Jon; Sparks, Steve

2017-04-01

Increasing geological and geophysical evidence suggests that crustal magma reservoirs are normally low melt fraction 'mushes' rather than high melt fraction 'magma chambers'. Yet high melt fractions must form within these mush reservoirs to explain the observed flow and eruption of low crystallinity magmas. In many models, crystallinity is linked directly to temperature, with higher temperature corresponding to lower crystallinity (higher melt fraction). However, increasing temperature yields less evolved (silicic) melt composition for a given starting material. If mobile, low crystallinity magmas require high temperature, it is difficult to explain how they can have evolved composition. Here we use numerical modelling to show that reactive melt flow in a porous and permeable mush reservoir formed by the intrusion of numerous basaltic sills into the lower continental crust produces magma in high melt fraction (> 0.5) layers akin to conventional magma chambers. These magma-chamber-like layers contain evolved (silicic) melt compositions and form at low (close to solidus) temperatures near the top of the mush reservoir. Evolved magma is therefore kept in 'cold storage' at low temperature, but also at low crystallinity so the magma is mobile and can leave the mush reservoir. Buoyancy-driven reactive flow and accumulation of melt in the mush reservoir controls the temperature and composition of magma that can leave the reservoir. The modelling also shows that processes in lower crustal mush reservoirs produce mobile magmas that contain melt of either silicic or mafic composition. Intermediate melt compositions are present but are not within mobile magmas. Silicic melt compositions are found at high melt fraction within the magma-chamber like layers near the top of the mush reservoir. Mafic melt compositions are found at high melt fraction within the cooling sills. Melt elsewhere in the reservoir has intermediate composition, but remains trapped in the reservoir because the local melt fraction is too low to form a mobile magma. The model results are consistent with geochemical data suggesting that lower crustal magma reservoirs supply silicic and mafic melts to arc volcanoes, but intermediate magmas are formed by mixing in shallower reservoirs. We suggest here that lower crustal magma chambers primarily form in response to changes in bulk composition caused by melt migration and chemical reaction in a mush reservoir. This process is different to the conventional and widely applied models of magma chamber formation. Similar processes are likely to operate in shallow mush reservoirs, but will likely be further complicated by the presence of volatile phases, and mixing of different melt compositions sourced from deeper mush reservoirs.

Using combined hydrological variables for extracting functional signatures of catchments to better assess the acceptability of model structures in conceptual catchment modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fovet, O.; Hrachowitz, M.; RUIZ, L.; Gascuel-odoux, C.; Savenije, H.

2013-12-01

While most hydrological models reproduce the general flow dynamics of a system, they frequently fail to adequately mimic system internal processes. This is likely to make them inadequate to simulate solutes transport. For example, the hysteresis between storage and discharge, which is often observed in shallow hard-rock aquifers, is rarely well reproduced by models. One main reason is that this hysteresis has little weight in the calibration because objective functions are based on time series of individual variables. This reduces the ability of classical calibration/validation procedures to assess the relevance of the conceptual hypothesis associated with hydrological models. Calibrating models on variables derived from the combination of different individual variables (like stream discharge and groundwater levels) is a way to insure that models will be accepted based on their consistency. Here we therefore test the value of this more systems-like approach to test different hypothesis on the behaviour of a small experimental low-land catchment in French Brittany (ORE AgrHys) where a high hysteresis is observed on the stream flow vs. shallow groundwater level relationship. Several conceptual models were applied to this site, and calibrated using objective functions based on metrics of this hysteresis. The tested model structures differed with respect to the storage function in each reservoir, the storage-discharge function in each reservoir, the deep loss expressions (as constant or variable fraction), the number of reservoirs (from 1 to 4) and their organization (parallel, series). The observed hysteretic groundwater level-discharge relationship was not satisfactorily reproduced by most of the tested models except for the most complex ones. Those were thus more consistent, their underlying hypotheses are probably more realistic even though their performance for simulating observed stream flow was decreased. Selecting models based on such systems-like approach is likely to improve their efficiency for environmental application e.g. on solute transport issues. The next step would be to apply the same approach with variables combining hydrological and biogeochemical variables.

Can the Gila River reduce risk in the Colorado River Basin?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wade, L. C.; Rajagopalan, B.; Lukas, J.; Kanzer, D.

2012-12-01

The Colorado River is the most important source of water in the southwest United States and Northern Mexico, providing water to approximately 35 million people and 4-5 million acres of irrigated lands. To manage the water resources of the basin, estimated to be about 17 million acre-feet (MAF) of undepleted supplies per year, managers use reservoir facilities that can store more than 60 MAF. As the demands on the water resources of the basin approach or exceed the average annual supply, and with average flow projected to decrease due to climate change, smart water management is vital for its sustainability. To quantify the future risk of depleting reservoir storage, Rajagopalan et al. (2009) developed a water-balance model and ran it under scenarios based on historical, paleo-reconstructed and future projections of flows, and different management alternatives. That study did not consider the impact of the Gila River, which enters the Colorado River below all major reservoirs and U.S. diversions. Due to intensive use in Central Arizona, the Gila only has significant inflows to the Colorado in wet years. However, these irregular inflows could beneficially influence system reliability in the US by helping to meet a portion of the 1.5 MAF delivery obligations to Mexico. To help quantify the potential system reliability benefit of the Gila River, we modify the Rajagopalan et al (2009) model to incorporate simulated Gila River inflows. These new data inputs to the water balance model are based on historical flows and tree-ring reconstructions of flow in the Upper Colorado River Basin (at Lee's Ferry), the Lower Colorado River Basin (tributary inflows), and the intermittent flows from the Gila River which are generated using extreme value analysis methods. Incorporating Gila River inflows, although they are highly variable and intermittent, reduces the modeled cumulative risk of reservoir depletion by 4 to 11% by 2057, depending on the demand schedule, reservoir operation guidelines, and climate change scenario assumptions. This potential risk mitigation could be at least partly realized through enhancements to current management practices, possibly in the Gila River, that could improve the water supply reliability for all stakeholders in the Colorado River Basin.

Electrical characteristics of rocks in fractured and caved reservoirs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Tianzhi; Lu, Tao; Zhang, Haining; Jiang, Liming; Liu, Tangyan; Meng, He; Wang, Feifei

2017-12-01

The conductive paths formed by fractures and cave in complex reservoirs differ from those formed by pores and throats in clastic rocks. In this paper, a new formation model based on fractured and caved reservoirs is established, and the electrical characteristics of rocks are analyzed with different pore structures using resistance law to understand their effects on rock resistivity. The ratio of fracture width to cave radius (C e value) and fracture dip are employed to depict pore structure in this model. Our research shows that the electrical characteristics of rocks in fractured and caved reservoirs are strongly affected by pore structure and porous fluid distribution. Although the rock electrical properties associated with simple pore structure agree well with Archie formulae, the relationships between F and φ or between I and S w , in more complicated pore structures, are nonlinear in double logarithmic coordinates. The parameters in Archie formulae are not constant and they depend on porosity and fluid saturation. Our calculations suggest that the inclined fracture may lead to resistivity anisotropy in the formation. The bigger dip the inclining fracture has, the more anisotropy the formation resistivity has. All of these studies own practical sense for the evaluation of oil saturation using resistivity logging data.

A Semi-Analytical Method for Rapid Estimation of Near-Well Saturation, Temperature, Pressure and Stress in Non-Isothermal CO2 Injection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

LaForce, T.; Ennis-King, J.; Paterson, L.

2015-12-01

Reservoir cooling near the wellbore is expected when fluids are injected into a reservoir or aquifer in CO2 storage, enhanced oil or gas recovery, enhanced geothermal systems, and water injection for disposal. Ignoring thermal effects near the well can lead to under-prediction of changes in reservoir pressure and stress due to competition between increased pressure and contraction of the rock in the cooled near-well region. In this work a previously developed semi-analytical model for immiscible, nonisothermal fluid injection is generalised to include partitioning of components between two phases. Advection-dominated radial flow is assumed so that the coupled two-phase flow and thermal conservation laws can be solved analytically. The temperature and saturation profiles are used to find the increase in reservoir pressure, tangential, and radial stress near the wellbore in a semi-analytical, forward-coupled model. Saturation, temperature, pressure, and stress profiles are found for parameters representative of several CO2 storage demonstration projects around the world. General results on maximum injection rates vs depth for common reservoir parameters are also presented. Prior to drilling an injection well there is often little information about the properties that will determine the injection rate that can be achieved without exceeding fracture pressure, yet injection rate and pressure are key parameters in well design and placement decisions. Analytical solutions to simplified models such as these can quickly provide order of magnitude estimates for flow and stress near the well based on a range of likely parameters.

Differential impact of transplantation on peripheral and tissue-associated viral reservoirs: Implications for HIV gene therapy

PubMed Central

Peterson, Christopher W.; Wang, Jianbin; Deleage, Claire; Reddy, Sowmya; Kaur, Jasbir; Polacino, Patricia; Reik, Andreas; Huang, Meei-Li; Holmes, Michael C.; Estes, Jacob D.

2018-01-01

Autologous transplantation and engraftment of HIV-resistant cells in sufficient numbers should recapitulate the functional cure of the Berlin Patient, with applicability to a greater number of infected individuals and with a superior safety profile. A robust preclinical model of suppressed HIV infection is critical in order to test such gene therapy-based cure strategies, both alone and in combination with other cure strategies. Here, we present a nonhuman primate (NHP) model of latent infection using simian/human immunodeficiency virus (SHIV) and combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) in pigtail macaques. We demonstrate that transplantation of CCR5 gene-edited hematopoietic stem/progenitor cells (HSPCs) persist in infected and suppressed animals, and that protected cells expand through virus-dependent positive selection. CCR5 gene-edited cells are readily detectable in tissues, namely those closely associated with viral reservoirs such as lymph nodes and gastrointestinal tract. Following autologous transplantation, tissue-associated SHIV DNA and RNA levels in suppressed animals are significantly reduced (p ≤ 0.05), relative to suppressed, untransplanted control animals. In contrast, the size of the peripheral reservoir, measured by QVOA, is variably impacted by transplantation. Our studies demonstrate that CCR5 gene editing is equally feasible in infected and uninfected animals, that edited cells persist, traffic to, and engraft in tissue reservoirs, and that this approach significantly reduces secondary lymphoid tissue viral reservoir size. Our robust NHP model of HIV gene therapy and viral persistence can be immediately applied to the investigation of combinatorial approaches that incorporate anti-HIV gene therapy, immune modulators, therapeutic vaccination, and latency reversing agents. PMID:29672640

Three-dimensional numerical reservoir simulation of the EGS Demonstration Project at The Geysers geothermal field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borgia, Andrea; Rutqvist, Jonny; Oldenburg, Curt M.; Hutchings, Lawrence; Garcia, Julio; Walters, Mark; Hartline, Craig; Jeanne, Pierre; Dobson, Patrick; Boyle, Katie

2013-04-01

The Enhanced Geothermal System (EGS) Demonstration Project, currently underway at the Northwest Geysers, California, aims to demonstrate the feasibility of stimulating a deep high-temperature reservoir (up to 400 °C) through water injection over a 2-year period. On October 6, 2011, injection of 25 l/s started from the Prati 32 well at a depth interval of 1850-2699 m below sea level. After a period of almost 2 months, the injection rate was raised to 63 l/s. The flow rate was then decreased to 44 l/s after an additional 3.5 months and maintained at 25 l/s up to August 20, 2012. Significant well-head pressure changes were recorded at Prati State 31 well, which is separated from Prati 32 by about 500 m at reservoir level. More subdued pressure increases occur at greater distances. The water injection caused induced seismicity in the reservoir in the vicinity of the well. Microseismic monitoring and interpretation shows that the cloud of seismic events is mainly located in the granitic intrusion below the injection zone, forming a cluster elongated SSE-NNW (azimuth 170°) that dips steeply to the west. In general, the magnitude of the events increases with depth and the hypocenter depth increases with time. This seismic cloud is hypothesized to correlate with enhanced permeability in the high-temperature reservoir and its variation with time. Based on the existing borehole data, we use the GMS™ GUI to construct a realistic three-dimensional (3D) geologic model of the Northwest Geysers geothermal field. This model includes, from the top down, a low permeability graywacke layer that forms the caprock for the reservoir, an isothermal steam zone (known as the normal temperature reservoir) within metagraywacke, a hornfels zone (where the high-temperature reservoir is located), and a felsite layer that is assumed to extend downward to the magmatic heat source. We then map this model onto a rectangular grid for use with the TOUGH2 multiphase, multicomponent, non-isothermal porous media numerical flow simulator in order to model the evolution and injection-related operational dynamics of The Geysers geothermal field. At the bottom of the domain in the felsite, we impose a constant temperature, constant saturation, low-permeability boundary. Laterally we set no-flow boundaries (no mass or heat flow), while at the top we use a fully aqueous-phase-saturated constant atmospheric pressure boundary condition. We compute initial conditions for two different conceptual models. The first conceptual model has two phases (gas and aqueous) with decreasing proportions of gas from the steam zone downward; the second model has dry steam all the way from the steam zone to the bottom. The first may be more similar to a pre-exploitation condition, before production reduced pressure and dried out the system, while the second is calibrated to the pressure and temperature actually measured in the reservoir today. Our preliminary results are in reasonable agreement with the pressure monitoring at Prati State 31. These results will be used in hydrogeomechanical modeling to plan, design, and validate the effects of injection in the system.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cooper, Clay A.; Thomas, James M.; Lyles, Brad F.

Samples from a well drilled in the Astor Pass area six-km north of the Needle Rocks area of Pyramid Lake indicate that the reservoir fluid is dominantly sodium, chloride, and sulfate, with a pH between 8.6 and 8.9. The total dissolved solids in the reservoir is approximately 1600 mg/l, about half that of the TDS of the fluids in the Needle Rocks area. One sample of dissolved gas from fluids produced during a well test in the reservoir had 4He value of 2.32 x 10 14 atoms 4He/g water, or approximately 100 times the value of atmospheric 4He. This measurement,more » in conjunction with a R/Ra measurement of 0.28, suggests that most of the reservoir helium is derived from the crust, with possibly a small value (~3.3 percent) derived from the mantle. Tritium concentration of the sample was 0.09 TU, indicating that the reservoir fluid was recharged more than 60 years ago; a simple model based upon carbon-14 suggests recharge has occurred within the past 1500 years.« less

Magnetic Skyrmion as a Nonlinear Resistive Element: A Potential Building Block for Reservoir Computing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prychynenko, Diana; Sitte, Matthias; Litzius, Kai; Krüger, Benjamin; Bourianoff, George; Kläui, Mathias; Sinova, Jairo; Everschor-Sitte, Karin

2018-01-01

Inspired by the human brain, there is a strong effort to find alternative models of information processing capable of imitating the high energy efficiency of neuromorphic information processing. One possible realization of cognitive computing involves reservoir computing networks. These networks are built out of nonlinear resistive elements which are recursively connected. We propose that a Skyrmion network embedded in magnetic films may provide a suitable physical implementation for reservoir computing applications. The significant key ingredient of such a network is a two-terminal device with nonlinear voltage characteristics originating from magnetoresistive effects, such as the anisotropic magnetoresistance or the recently discovered noncollinear magnetoresistance. The most basic element for a reservoir computing network built from "Skyrmion fabrics" is a single Skyrmion embedded in a ferromagnetic ribbon. In order to pave the way towards reservoir computing systems based on Skyrmion fabrics, we simulate and analyze (i) the current flow through a single magnetic Skyrmion due to the anisotropic magnetoresistive effect and (ii) the combined physics of local pinning and the anisotropic magnetoresistive effect.

Daily Reservoir Inflow Forecasting using Deep Learning with Downscaled Multi-General Circulation Models (GCMs) Platform

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, D.; Fang, N. Z.

2017-12-01

Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex (DFW) has a population of over 7 million depending on many water supply reservoirs. The reservoir inflow plays a vital role in water supply decision making process and long-term strategic planning for the region. This paper demonstrates a method of utilizing deep learning algorithms and multi-general circulation model (GCM) platform to forecast reservoir inflow for three reservoirs within the DFW: Eagle Mountain Lake, Lake Benbrook and Lake Arlington. Ensemble empirical mode decomposition was firstly employed to extract the features, which were then represented by the deep belief networks (DBNs). The first 75 years of the historical data (1940 -2015) were used to train the model, while the last 2 years of the data (2016-2017) were used for the model validation. The weights of each DBN gained from the training process were then applied to establish a neural network (NN) that was able to forecast reservoir inflow. Feature predictors used for the forecasting model were generated from weather forecast results of the downscaled multi-GCM platform for the North Texas region. By comparing root mean square error (RMSE) and mean bias error (MBE) with the observed data, the authors found that the deep learning with downscaled multi-GCM platform is an effective approach in the reservoir inflow forecasting.

Volume sharing of reservoir water

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dudley, Norman J.

1988-05-01

Previous models optimize short-, intermediate-, and long-run irrigation decision making in a simplified river valley system characterized by highly variable water supplies and demands for a single decision maker controlling both reservoir releases and farm water use. A major problem in relaxing the assumption of one decision maker is communicating the stochastic nature of supplies and demands between reservoir and farm managers. In this paper, an optimizing model is used to develop release rules for reservoir management when all users share equally in releases, and computer simulation is used to generate an historical time sequence of announced releases. These announced releases become a state variable in a farm management model which optimizes farm area-to-irrigate decisions through time. Such modeling envisages the use of growing area climatic data by the reservoir authority to gauge water demand and the transfer of water supply data from reservoir to farm managers via computer data files. Alternative model forms, including allocating water on a priority basis, are discussed briefly. Results show lower mean aggregate farm income and lower variance of aggregate farm income than in the single decision-maker case. This short-run economic efficiency loss coupled with likely long-run economic efficiency losses due to the attenuated nature of property rights indicates the need for quite different ways of integrating reservoir and farm management.

Modeling Hydrodynamics, Water Temperature, and Suspended Sediment in Detroit Lake, Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sullivan, Annett B.; Rounds, Stewart A.; Sobieszczyk, Steven; Bragg, Heather M.

2007-01-01

Detroit Lake is a large reservoir on the North Santiam River in west-central Oregon. Water temperature and suspended sediment are issues of concern in the river downstream of the reservoir. A CE-QUAL-W2 model was constructed to simulate hydrodynamics, water temperature, total dissolved solids, and suspended sediment in Detroit Lake. The model was calibrated for calendar years 2002 and 2003, and for a period of storm runoff from December 1, 2005, to February 1, 2006. Input data included lake bathymetry, meteorology, reservoir outflows, and tributary inflows, water temperatures, total dissolved solids, and suspended sediment concentrations. Two suspended sediment size groups were modeled: one for suspended sand and silt with particle diameters larger than 2 micrometers, and another for suspended clay with particle diameters less than or equal to 2 micrometers. The model was calibrated using lake stage data, lake profile data, and data from a continuous water-quality monitor on the North Santiam River near Niagara, about 6 kilometers downstream of Detroit Dam. The calibrated model was used to estimate sediment deposition in the reservoir, examine the sources of suspended sediment exiting the reservoir, and examine the effect of the reservoir on downstream water temperatures.

The Shear Mechanisms of Natural Fractures during the Hydraulic Stimulation of Shale Gas Reservoirs.

PubMed

Zhang, Zhaobin; Li, Xiao

2016-08-23

The shearing of natural fractures is important in the permeability enhancement of shale gas reservoirs during hydraulic fracturing treatment. In this work, the shearing mechanisms of natural fractures are analyzed using a newly proposed numerical model based on the displacement discontinuities method. The fluid-rock coupling system of the model is carefully designed to calculate the shearing of fractures. Both a single fracture and a complex fracture network are used to investigate the shear mechanisms. The investigation based on a single fracture shows that the non-ignorable shearing length of a natural fracture could be formed before the natural fracture is filled by pressurized fluid. Therefore, for the hydraulic fracturing treatment of the naturally fractured shale gas reservoirs, the shear strength of shale is generally more important than the tensile strength. The fluid-rock coupling propagation processes of a complex fracture network are simulated under different crustal stress conditions and the results agree well with those of the single fracture. The propagation processes of complex fracture network show that a smaller crustal stress difference is unfavorable to the shearing of natural fractures, but is favorable to the formation of complex fracture network.

The Shear Mechanisms of Natural Fractures during the Hydraulic Stimulation of Shale Gas Reservoirs

PubMed Central

Zhang, Zhaobin; Li, Xiao

2016-01-01

The shearing of natural fractures is important in the permeability enhancement of shale gas reservoirs during hydraulic fracturing treatment. In this work, the shearing mechanisms of natural fractures are analyzed using a newly proposed numerical model based on the displacement discontinuities method. The fluid-rock coupling system of the model is carefully designed to calculate the shearing of fractures. Both a single fracture and a complex fracture network are used to investigate the shear mechanisms. The investigation based on a single fracture shows that the non-ignorable shearing length of a natural fracture could be formed before the natural fracture is filled by pressurized fluid. Therefore, for the hydraulic fracturing treatment of the naturally fractured shale gas reservoirs, the shear strength of shale is generally more important than the tensile strength. The fluid-rock coupling propagation processes of a complex fracture network are simulated under different crustal stress conditions and the results agree well with those of the single fracture. The propagation processes of complex fracture network show that a smaller crustal stress difference is unfavorable to the shearing of natural fractures, but is favorable to the formation of complex fracture network. PMID:28773834

Modeling Reservoir-River Networks in Support of Optimizing Seasonal-Scale Reservoir Operations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Villa, D. L.; Lowry, T. S.; Bier, A.; Barco, J.; Sun, A.

2011-12-01

HydroSCOPE (Hydropower Seasonal Concurrent Optimization of Power and the Environment) is a seasonal time-scale tool for scenario analysis and optimization of reservoir-river networks. Developed in MATLAB, HydroSCOPE is an object-oriented model that simulates basin-scale dynamics with an objective of optimizing reservoir operations to maximize revenue from power generation, reliability in the water supply, environmental performance, and flood control. HydroSCOPE is part of a larger toolset that is being developed through a Department of Energy multi-laboratory project. This project's goal is to provide conventional hydropower decision makers with better information to execute their day-ahead and seasonal operations and planning activities by integrating water balance and operational dynamics across a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. This presentation details the modeling approach and functionality of HydroSCOPE. HydroSCOPE consists of a river-reservoir network model and an optimization routine. The river-reservoir network model simulates the heat and water balance of river-reservoir networks for time-scales up to one year. The optimization routine software, DAKOTA (Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale Applications - dakota.sandia.gov), is seamlessly linked to the network model and is used to optimize daily volumetric releases from the reservoirs to best meet a set of user-defined constraints, such as maximizing revenue while minimizing environmental violations. The network model uses 1-D approximations for both the reservoirs and river reaches and is able to account for surface and sediment heat exchange as well as ice dynamics for both models. The reservoir model also accounts for inflow, density, and withdrawal zone mixing, and diffusive heat exchange. Routing for the river reaches is accomplished using a modified Muskingum-Cunge approach that automatically calculates the internal timestep and sub-reach lengths to match the conditions of each timestep and minimize computational overhead. Power generation for each reservoir is estimated using a 2-dimensional regression that accounts for both the available head and turbine efficiency. The object-oriented architecture makes run configuration easy to update. The dynamic model inputs include inflow and meteorological forecasts while static inputs include bathymetry data, reservoir and power generation characteristics, and topological descriptors. Ensemble forecasts of hydrological and meteorological conditions are supplied in real-time by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and are used as a proxy for uncertainty, which is carried through the simulation and optimization process to produce output that describes the probability that different operational scenario's will be optimal. The full toolset, which includes HydroSCOPE, is currently being tested on the Feather River system in Northern California and the Upper Colorado Storage Project.

INCREASING HEAVY OIL RESERVES IN THE WILMINGTON OIL FIELD THROUGH ADVANCED RESERVOIR CHARACTERIZATION AND THERMAL PRODUCTION TECHNOLOGIES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Scott Hara

2000-02-18

The project involves using advanced reservoir characterization and thermal production technologies to improve thermal recovery techniques and lower operating and capital costs in a slope and basin clastic (SBC) reservoir in the Wilmington field, Los Angeles Co., CA. Through March 1999, project work has been completed related to data preparation, basic reservoir engineering, developing a deterministic three dimensional (3-D) geologic model, a 3-D deterministic reservoir simulation model, and a rock-log model, well drilling and completions, and surface facilities. Work is continuing on the stochastic geologic model, developing a 3-D stochastic thermal reservoir simulation model of the Fault Block IIA Tarmore » (Tar II-A) Zone, and operational work and research studies to prevent thermal-related formation compaction. Thermal-related formation compaction is a concern of the project team due to observed surface subsidence in the local area above the steamflood project. Last quarter on January 12, the steamflood project lost its inexpensive steam source from the Harbor Cogeneration Plant as a result of the recent deregulation of electrical power rates in California. An operational plan was developed and implemented to mitigate the effects of the two situations. Seven water injection wells were placed in service in November and December 1998 on the flanks of the Phase 1 steamflood area to pressure up the reservoir to fill up the existing steam chest. Intensive reservoir engineering and geomechanics studies are continuing to determine the best ways to shut down the steamflood operations in Fault Block II while minimizing any future surface subsidence. The new 3-D deterministic thermal reservoir simulator model is being used to provide sensitivity cases to optimize production, steam injection, future flank cold water injection and reservoir temperature and pressure. According to the model, reservoir fill up of the steam chest at the current injection rate of 28,000 BPD and gross and net oil production rates of 7,700 BPD and 750 BOPD (injection to production ratio of 4) will occur in October 1999. At that time, the reservoir should act more like a waterflood and production and cold water injection can be operated at lower net injection rates to be determined. Modeling runs developed this quarter found that varying individual well injection rates to meet added production and local pressure problems by sub-zone could reduce steam chest fill-up by up to one month.« less

Fuzzy multiobjective models for optimal operation of a hydropower system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teegavarapu, Ramesh S. V.; Ferreira, André R.; Simonovic, Slobodan P.

2013-06-01

Optimal operation models for a hydropower system using new fuzzy multiobjective mathematical programming models are developed and evaluated in this study. The models use (i) mixed integer nonlinear programming (MINLP) with binary variables and (ii) integrate a new turbine unit commitment formulation along with water quality constraints used for evaluation of reservoir downstream impairment. Reardon method used in solution of genetic algorithm optimization problems forms the basis for development of a new fuzzy multiobjective hydropower system optimization model with creation of Reardon type fuzzy membership functions. The models are applied to a real-life hydropower reservoir system in Brazil. Genetic Algorithms (GAs) are used to (i) solve the optimization formulations to avoid computational intractability and combinatorial problems associated with binary variables in unit commitment, (ii) efficiently address Reardon method formulations, and (iii) deal with local optimal solutions obtained from the use of traditional gradient-based solvers. Decision maker's preferences are incorporated within fuzzy mathematical programming formulations to obtain compromise operating rules for a multiobjective reservoir operation problem dominated by conflicting goals of energy production, water quality and conservation releases. Results provide insight into compromise operation rules obtained using the new Reardon fuzzy multiobjective optimization framework and confirm its applicability to a variety of multiobjective water resources problems.

Nonlinear Filtering Effects of Reservoirs on Flood Frequency Curves at the Regional Scale: RESERVOIRS FILTER FLOOD FREQUENCY CURVES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Wei; Li, Hong-Yi; Leung, L. Ruby

Anthropogenic activities, e.g., reservoir operation, may alter the characteristics of Flood Frequency Curve (FFC) and challenge the basic assumption of stationarity used in flood frequency analysis. This paper presents a combined data-modeling analysis of the nonlinear filtering effects of reservoirs on the FFCs over the contiguous United States. A dimensionless Reservoir Impact Index (RII), defined as the total upstream reservoir storage capacity normalized by the annual streamflow volume, is used to quantify reservoir regulation effects. Analyses are performed for 388 river stations with an average record length of 50 years. The first two moments of the FFC, mean annual maximummore » flood (MAF) and coefficient of variations (CV), are calculated for the pre- and post-dam periods and compared to elucidate the reservoir regulation effects as a function of RII. It is found that MAF generally decreases with increasing RII but stabilizes when RII exceeds a threshold value, and CV increases with RII until a threshold value beyond which CV decreases with RII. The processes underlying the nonlinear threshold behavior of MAF and CV are investigated using three reservoir models with different levels of complexity. All models capture the non-linear relationships of MAF and CV with RII, suggesting that the basic flood control function of reservoirs is key to the non-linear relationships. The relative roles of reservoir storage capacity, operation objectives, available storage prior to a flood event, and reservoir inflow pattern are systematically investigated. Our findings may help improve flood-risk assessment and mitigation in regulated river systems at the regional scale.« less

Modeling the Impact of Energy and Water Prices on Reservoir and Aquifer Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dale, L. L.; Vicuna, S.; Faybishenko, B.

2008-12-01

Climate change and polices to limit carbon emissions are likely to increase energy and water scarcity and raise prices. These price impacts affect the way that reservoirs and aquifers should be managed to maximize the value of water and energy outputs. In this paper, we use a model of storage in a specific region to illustrate how energy and water prices affect optimal reservoir and aquifer management. We evaluate reservoir-aquifer water management in the Merced water basin in California, applying an optimization model of storage benefits associated with different management options and input prices. The model includes two submodels: (a) a monthly nonlinear submodel for optimization of the conjunctive energy/water use and (b) an inter-annual stochastic dynamic programming submodel used for determining an operating rule matrix which maximizes system benefits for given economic and hydrologic conditions. The model input parameters include annual inflows, initial storage, crop water demands, crop prices and electricity prices. The model is used to determine changes in net energy generation and water delivery and associated changes in water storage levels caused by changes in water and energy output prices. For the scenario of water/energy tradeoffs for a pure reservoir (with no groundwater use), we illustrate the tradeoff between the agricultural water use and hydropower generation (MWh) for different energy/agriculture price ratios. The analysis is divided into four steps. The first and second steps describe these price impacts on reservoirs and aquifers, respectively. The third step covers price impacts on conjunctive reservoir and aquifer management. The forth step describes price impacts on reservoir and aquifer storage in the more common historical situation, when these facilities are managed separately. The study indicates that optimal reservoir and aquifer storage levels are a positive function of the energy to water price ratio. The study also concludes that conjunctive use of a reservoir and an aquifer tends to force convergence in the long term, multiyear, average groundwater and reservoir storage heads. The results of this study can be used for developing an efficient strategy of managing energy and water resources in different regions across a broad range of climatic, agricultural, and economic scenarios.

Modeling the Transport and Fate of Fecal Pollution and Nutrients of Miyun Reservoir

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, L.; Fu, X.; Wang, G.

2009-12-01

Miyun Reservoir, a mountain valley reservoir, is located 100 km northeast of Beijing City. Besides the functions of flood control, irrigation and fishery for Beijing area, Miyun Reservoir is the main drinking water storage for Beijing city. The water quality is therefore of great importance. Recently, the concentration of fecal pollution and nutrients in the reservoir are constantly rising to arrest the attention of Beijing municipality. Fecal pollution from sewage is a significant public health concern due to the known presence of human viruses and parasites in these discharges. To investigate the transport and fate of the fecal pollution and nutrients at Miyun reservoir and the health risks associated with drinking and fishery, the reservoir and two tributaries, Chaohe river and Baihe river discharging into it are being examined for bacterial, nutrients and other routine pollution. To understand the relative importance of different processes influencing pollution transport and inactivation, a finite-element model of surf-zone hydrodynamics (coupled with models for temperature, fecal pollution, nutrients and other routine contaminants) is used. The developed models are being verified by the observed water quality data including water temperature, conductivities and dissolved oxygen from the reservoir and its tributaries. Different factors impacting the inactivation of fecal pollution and the transport of nutrients such as water temperature, sedimentation, sunlight insolation are evaluated for Miyun reservoir by a sensitivity analysis analogized from the previous research of Lake Michigan (figure 1, indicating that solar insolation dominates the inactivation of E. Coli, an indicator of fecal pollution, Liu et al. 2006). The calibrated modeling system can be used to temporally and spatially simulate and predict the variation of the concentration of fecal pollution and nutrients of Miyun reservoir. Therefore this research can provide a forecasting tool for the administrative agencies and policy makers to make correct decisions for the water utilization of Minyun reservoir once some emergency events occur. Key words: Fecal pollution, Modeling, Transport, Inactivation Figure 1: Relative contributions of settling and solar insolation to the overall inactivation of E. coli at the Mt. Baldy Beach (Liu et al. 2006)

A fast complex domain-matching pursuit algorithm and its application to deep-water gas reservoir detection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeng, Jing; Huang, Handong; Li, Huijie; Miao, Yuxin; Wen, Junxiang; Zhou, Fei

2017-12-01

The main emphasis of exploration and development is shifting from simple structural reservoirs to complex reservoirs, which all have the characteristics of complex structure, thin reservoir thickness and large buried depth. Faced with these complex geological features, hydrocarbon detection technology is a direct indication of changes in hydrocarbon reservoirs and a good approach for delimiting the distribution of underground reservoirs. It is common to utilize the time-frequency (TF) features of seismic data in detecting hydrocarbon reservoirs. Therefore, we research the complex domain-matching pursuit (CDMP) method and propose some improvements. First is the introduction of a scale parameter, which corrects the defect that atomic waveforms only change with the frequency parameter. Its introduction not only decomposes seismic signal with high accuracy and high efficiency but also reduces iterations. We also integrate jumping search with ergodic search to improve computational efficiency while maintaining the reasonable accuracy. Then we combine the improved CDMP with the Wigner-Ville distribution to obtain a high-resolution TF spectrum. A one-dimensional modeling experiment has proved the validity of our method. Basing on the low-frequency domain reflection coefficient in fluid-saturated porous media, we finally get an approximation formula for the mobility attributes of reservoir fluid. This approximation formula is used as a hydrocarbon identification factor to predict deep-water gas-bearing sand of the M oil field in the South China Sea. The results are consistent with the actual well test results and our method can help inform the future exploration of deep-water gas reservoirs.

Reservoir description and future development plans for the Unam/Mfem Fields, OML 67, Nigeria

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kofron, B.M.; Jenkinson, J.T.; Maxwell, G.S.

1995-08-01

The Unam/Mfem fields, which are currently produced from three platforms, are, located 25 km offshore (southeastern Nigeria) in water depths of 60 feet to 100 feet. Over 100 MMBO have been produced to date from both unconformity bounded and fault trap reservoirs in the Upper and Middle Biafra Sands. These structural and stratigraphic geometries define at least eleven different reservoirs that are not interconnected. STOIIP for all eleven reservoirs is estimated to exceed 900 MMBO based on a recently completed reservoir characterization study. A two year reservoir description study followed the acquisition of a 1991 3-D seismic survey and resultedmore » in the drilling of six successful wells and two sidetracks. A 3-D model of reservoir geometries and fluid flow properties was generated by integrating geologic, geophysical, and reservoir engineering data. These diverse data sets were interpreted using a combination of workstations, software packages, and displays that included Landmark, IREX, wireline log and seismic correlation charts. A detailed stratigraphic zonation scheme with 28 zones was defined and correlated field wide and subregionally to build the reservoir framework. Twenty seismic horizons were created. More than 300 critical compute, generated grids were then used to calculate STOIIP volumes. This study led to the identification of new pay zones along with a much better understanding of the spatial distribution of all pays within the fields. A revised exploitation strategy has subsequently been proposed which calls for 5 new platforms and the drilling of 21 additional wells over the next few years.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ernest A. Mancini

The University of Alabama in cooperation with Texas A&M University, McGill University, Longleaf Energy Group, Strago Petroleum Corporation, and Paramount Petroleum Company are undertaking an integrated, interdisciplinary geoscientific and engineering research project. The project is designed to characterize and model reservoir architecture, pore systems and rock-fluid interactions at the pore to field scale in Upper Jurassic Smackover reef and carbonate shoal reservoirs associated with varying degrees of relief on pre-Mesozoic basement paleohighs in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. The project effort includes the prediction of fluid flow in carbonate reservoirs through reservoir simulation modeling which utilizes geologic reservoir characterization andmore » modeling and the prediction of carbonate reservoir architecture, heterogeneity and quality through seismic imaging. The primary objective of the project is to increase the profitability, producibility and efficiency of recovery of oil from existing and undiscovered Upper Jurassic fields characterized by reef and carbonate shoals associated with pre-Mesozoic basement paleohighs. The principal research effort for Year 1 of the project has been reservoir description and characterization. This effort has included four tasks: (1) geoscientific reservoir characterization, (2) the study of rock-fluid interactions, (3) petrophysical and engineering characterization and (4) data integration. This work was scheduled for completion in Year 1. Overall, the project work is on schedule. Geoscientific reservoir characterization is essentially completed. The architecture, porosity types and heterogeneity of the reef and shoal reservoirs at Appleton and Vocation Fields have been characterized using geological and geophysical data. The study of rock-fluid interactions has been initiated. Observations regarding the diagenetic processes influencing pore system development and heterogeneity in these reef and shoal reservoirs have been made. Petrophysical and engineering property characterization is progressing. Data on reservoir production rate and pressure history at Appleton and Vocation Fields have been tabulated, and porosity data from core analysis has been correlated with porosity as observed from well log response. Data integration is on schedule, in that, the geological, geophysical, petrophysical and engineering data collected to date for Appleton and Vocation Fields have been compiled into a fieldwide digital database for reservoir characterization, modeling and simulation for the reef and carbonate shoal reservoirs for each of these fields.« less

Minimum complexity echo state network.

PubMed

Rodan, Ali; Tino, Peter

2011-01-01

Reservoir computing (RC) refers to a new class of state-space models with a fixed state transition structure (the reservoir) and an adaptable readout form the state space. The reservoir is supposed to be sufficiently complex so as to capture a large number of features of the input stream that can be exploited by the reservoir-to-output readout mapping. The field of RC has been growing rapidly with many successful applications. However, RC has been criticized for not being principled enough. Reservoir construction is largely driven by a series of randomized model-building stages, with both researchers and practitioners having to rely on a series of trials and errors. To initialize a systematic study of the field, we concentrate on one of the most popular classes of RC methods, namely echo state network, and ask: What is the minimal complexity of reservoir construction for obtaining competitive models and what is the memory capacity (MC) of such simplified reservoirs? On a number of widely used time series benchmarks of different origin and characteristics, as well as by conducting a theoretical analysis we show that a simple deterministically constructed cycle reservoir is comparable to the standard echo state network methodology. The (short-term) MC of linear cyclic reservoirs can be made arbitrarily close to the proved optimal value.

Temperature Oscillation in a Loop Heat Pipe with Gravity Assist

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ku, Jentung; Garrison, Matt; Patel, Deepak; Ottenstein, Laura; Robinson, Frank

2014-01-01

ATLAS Laser Thermal Control System (LTCS) thermal vacuum testing where the condenser-radiator was placed in a vertical position, it was found that the loop heat pipe (LHP) reservoir required much more control heater power than the analytical model had predicted. The required control heater power was also higher than the liquid subcooling entering the reservoir using the measured temperatures and the calculated mass flow rate based on steady state LHP operation. This presentation describes the investigation of the LHP behaviors under a gravity assist mode with a very cold radiator sink temperature and a large thermal mass attached to the evaporator. It is concluded that gravity caused the cold liquid to drop from the condenser-radiator to the reservoir, resulting in a rapid decrease of the reservoir temperature. When the reservoir temperature was increasing, a reverse flow occurred in the liquid line, carrying warm liquid to the condenser-radiator. Both events consumed the reservoir control heater power. The fall and rise of the reservoir temperature also caused the net heat input to the evaporator to vary due to the release and storage of the sensible heat of the thermal mass. The combination of these effects led to a persistent reservoir temperature oscillation and a repeated influx of cold liquid from the condenser. This was the root cause of the extraordinary high control heater power requirement in the LTCS TV test. Without gravity assist, such a persistent temperature oscillation will not be present.

Survival Estimates for the Passage of Juvenile Chinook Salmon through Snake River Dams and Reservoirs, 1993 Annual Report.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Iwamoto, Robert N.; Sandford, Benjamin P.; McIntyre, Kenneth W.

1994-04-01

A pilot study was conducted to estimate survival of hatchery-reared yearling chinook salmon through dams and reservoirs on the Snake River. The goals of the study were to: (1) field test and evaluate the Single-Release, Modified-Single-Release, and Paired-Release Models for the estimation of survival probabilities through sections of a river and hydroelectric projects; (2) identify operational and logistical constraints to the execution of these models; and (3) determine the usefulness of the models in providing estimates of survival probabilities. Field testing indicated that the numbers of hatchery-reared yearling chinook salmon needed for accurate survival estimates could be collected at differentmore » areas with available gear and methods. For the primary evaluation, seven replicates of 830 to 1,442 hatchery-reared yearling chinook salmon were purse-seined from Lower Granite Reservoir, PIT tagged, and released near Nisqually John boat landing (River Kilometer 726). Secondary releases of PIT-tagged smolts were made at Lower Granite Dam to estimate survival of fish passing through turbines and after detection in the bypass system. Similar secondary releases were made at Little Goose Dam, but with additional releases through the spillway. Based on the success of the 1993 pilot study, the authors believe that the Single-Release and Paired-Release Models will provide accurate estimates of juvenile salmonid passage survival for individual river sections, reservoirs, and hydroelectric projects in the Columbia and Snake Rivers.« less

Factors Affecting Firm Yield and the Estimation of Firm Yield for Selected Streamflow-Dominated Drinking-Water-Supply Reservoirs in Massachusetts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Waldron, Marcus C.; Archfield, Stacey A.

2006-01-01

Factors affecting reservoir firm yield, as determined by application of the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection's Firm Yield Estimator (FYE) model, were evaluated, modified, and tested on 46 streamflow-dominated reservoirs representing 15 Massachusetts drinking-water supplies. The model uses a mass-balance approach to determine the maximum average daily withdrawal rate that can be sustained during a period of record that includes the 1960s drought-of-record. The FYE methodology to estimate streamflow to the reservoir at an ungaged site was tested by simulating streamflow at two streamflow-gaging stations in Massachusetts and comparing the simulated streamflow to the observed streamflow. In general, the FYE-simulated flows agreed well with observed flows. There were substantial deviations from the measured values for extreme high and low flows. A sensitivity analysis determined that the model's streamflow estimates are most sensitive to input values for average annual precipitation, reservoir drainage area, and the soil-retention number-a term that describes the amount of precipitation retained by the soil in the basin. The FYE model currently provides the option of using a 1,000-year synthetic record constructed by randomly sampling 2-year blocks of concurrent streamflow and precipitation records 500 times; however, the synthetic record has the potential to generate records of precipitation and streamflow that do not reflect the worst historical drought in Massachusetts. For reservoirs that do not have periods of drawdown greater than 2 years, the bootstrap does not offer any additional information about the firm yield of a reservoir than the historical record does. For some reservoirs, the use of a synthetic record to determine firm yield resulted in as much as a 30-percent difference between firm-yield values from one simulation to the next. Furthermore, the assumption that the synthetic traces of streamflow are statistically equivalent to the historical record is not valid. For multiple-reservoir systems, the firm-yield estimate was dependent on the reservoir system's configuration. The firm yield of a system is sensitive to how the water is transferred from one reservoir to another, the capacity of the connection between the reservoirs, and how seasonal variations in demand are represented in the FYE model. Firm yields for 25 (14 single-reservoir systems and 11 multiple-reservoir systems) reservoir systems were determined by using the historical records of streamflow and precipitation. Current water-use data indicate that, on average, 20 of the 25 reservoir systems in the study were operating below their estimated firm yield; during months with peak demands, withdrawals exceeded the firm yield for 8 reservoir systems.

Sparse representation-based volumetric super-resolution algorithm for 3D CT images of reservoir rocks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Zhengji; Teng, Qizhi; He, Xiaohai; Yue, Guihua; Wang, Zhengyong

2017-09-01

The parameter evaluation of reservoir rocks can help us to identify components and calculate the permeability and other parameters, and it plays an important role in the petroleum industry. Until now, computed tomography (CT) has remained an irreplaceable way to acquire the microstructure of reservoir rocks. During the evaluation and analysis, large samples and high-resolution images are required in order to obtain accurate results. Owing to the inherent limitations of CT, however, a large field of view results in low-resolution images, and high-resolution images entail a smaller field of view. Our method is a promising solution to these data collection limitations. In this study, a framework for sparse representation-based 3D volumetric super-resolution is proposed to enhance the resolution of 3D voxel images of reservoirs scanned with CT. A single reservoir structure and its downgraded model are divided into a large number of 3D cubes of voxel pairs and these cube pairs are used to calculate two overcomplete dictionaries and the sparse-representation coefficients in order to estimate the high frequency component. Future more, to better result, a new feature extract method with combine BM4D together with Laplacian filter are introduced. In addition, we conducted a visual evaluation of the method, and used the PSNR and FSIM to evaluate it qualitatively.

Forecasting monthly inflow discharge of the Iffezheim reservoir using data-driven models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Qing; Aljoumani, Basem; Hillebrand, Gudrun; Hoffmann, Thomas; Hinkelmann, Reinhard

2017-04-01

River stream flow is an essential element in hydrology study fields, especially for reservoir management, since it defines input into reservoirs. Forecasting this stream flow plays an important role in short or long-term planning and management in the reservoir, e.g. optimized reservoir and hydroelectric operation or agricultural irrigation. Highly accurate flow forecasting can significantly reduce economic losses and is always pursued by reservoir operators. Therefore, hydrologic time series forecasting has received tremendous attention of researchers. Many models have been proposed to improve the hydrological forecasting. Due to the fact that most natural phenomena occurring in environmental systems appear to behave in random or probabilistic ways, different cases may need a different methods to forecast the inflow and even a unique treatment to improve the forecast accuracy. The purpose of this study is to determine an appropriate model for forecasting monthly inflow to the Iffezheim reservoir in Germany, which is the last of the barrages in the Upper Rhine. Monthly time series of discharges, measured from 1946 to 2001 at the Plittersdorf station, which is located 6 km downstream of the Iffezheim reservoir, were applied. The accuracies of the used stochastic models - Fiering model and Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average models (ARIMA) are compared with Artificial Intelligence (AI) models - single Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Wavelet ANN models (WANN). The Fiering model is a linear stochastic model and used for generating synthetic monthly data. The basic idea in modeling time series using ARIMA is to identify a simple model with as few model parameters as possible in order to provide a good statistical fit to the data. To identify and fit the ARIMA models, four phase approaches were used: identification, parameter estimation, diagnostic checking, and forecasting. An automatic selection criterion, such as the Akaike information criterion, is utilized to enhance this flexible approach to set up the model. As distinct from both stochastic models, the ANN and its related conjunction methods Wavelet-ANN (WANN) models are effective to handle non-linear systems and have been developed with antecedent flows as inputs to forecast up to 12-months lead-time for the Iffezheim reservoir. In the ANN and WANN models, the Feed Forward Back Propagation method (FFBP) is applied. The sigmoid activity and linear functions were used with several different neurons for the hidden layers and for the output layer, respectively. To compare the accuracy of the different models and identify the most suitable model for reliable forecasting, four quantitative standard statistical performance evaluation measures, the root mean square error (RMSE), the mean bias error (MAE) and the determination correlation coefficient (DC), are employed. The results reveal that the ARIMA (2, 1, 2) performs better than Fiering, ANN and WANN models. Further, the WANN model is found to be slightly better than the ANN model for forecasting monthly inflow of the Iffezheim reservoir. As a result, by using the ARIMA model, the predicted and observed values agree reasonably well.

Three-dimensional earthquake analysis of roller-compacted concrete dams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kartal, M. E.

2012-07-01

Ground motion effect on a roller-compacted concrete (RCC) dams in the earthquake zone should be taken into account for the most critical conditions. This study presents three-dimensional earthquake response of a RCC dam considering geometrical non-linearity. Besides, material and connection non-linearity are also taken into consideration in the time-history analyses. Bilinear and multilinear kinematic hardening material models are utilized in the materially non-linear analyses for concrete and foundation rock respectively. The contraction joints inside the dam blocks and dam-foundation-reservoir interaction are modeled by the contact elements. The hydrostatic and hydrodynamic pressures of the reservoir water are modeled with the fluid finite elements based on the Lagrangian approach. The gravity and hydrostatic pressure effects are employed as initial condition before the strong ground motion. In the earthquake analyses, viscous dampers are defined in the finite element model to represent infinite boundary conditions. According to numerical solutions, horizontal displacements increase under hydrodynamic pressure. Besides, those also increase in the materially non-linear analyses of the dam. In addition, while the principle stress components by the hydrodynamic pressure effect the reservoir water, those decrease in the materially non-linear time-history analyses.

Daily water level forecasting using wavelet decomposition and artificial intelligence techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seo, Youngmin; Kim, Sungwon; Kisi, Ozgur; Singh, Vijay P.

2015-01-01

Reliable water level forecasting for reservoir inflow is essential for reservoir operation. The objective of this paper is to develop and apply two hybrid models for daily water level forecasting and investigate their accuracy. These two hybrid models are wavelet-based artificial neural network (WANN) and wavelet-based adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (WANFIS). Wavelet decomposition is employed to decompose an input time series into approximation and detail components. The decomposed time series are used as inputs to artificial neural networks (ANN) and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) for WANN and WANFIS models, respectively. Based on statistical performance indexes, the WANN and WANFIS models are found to produce better efficiency than the ANN and ANFIS models. WANFIS7-sym10 yields the best performance among all other models. It is found that wavelet decomposition improves the accuracy of ANN and ANFIS. This study evaluates the accuracy of the WANN and WANFIS models for different mother wavelets, including Daubechies, Symmlet and Coiflet wavelets. It is found that the model performance is dependent on input sets and mother wavelets, and the wavelet decomposition using mother wavelet, db10, can further improve the efficiency of ANN and ANFIS models. Results obtained from this study indicate that the conjunction of wavelet decomposition and artificial intelligence models can be a useful tool for accurate forecasting daily water level and can yield better efficiency than the conventional forecasting models.

Development of a method for comprehensive water quality forecasting and its application in Miyun reservoir of Beijing, China.

PubMed

Zhang, Lei; Zou, Zhihong; Shan, Wei

2017-06-01

Water quality forecasting is an essential part of water resource management. Spatiotemporal variations of water quality and their inherent constraints make it very complex. This study explored a data-based method for short-term water quality forecasting. Prediction of water quality indicators including dissolved oxygen, chemical oxygen demand by KMnO 4 and ammonia nitrogen using support vector machine was taken as inputs of the particle swarm algorithm based optimal wavelet neural network to forecast the whole status index of water quality. Gubeikou monitoring section of Miyun reservoir in Beijing, China was taken as the study case to examine effectiveness of this approach. The experiment results also revealed that the proposed model has advantages of stability and time reduction in comparison with other data-driven models including traditional BP neural network model, wavelet neural network model and Gradient Boosting Decision Tree model. It can be used as an effective approach to perform short-term comprehensive water quality prediction. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Effects of fault-controlled CO2 alteration on mineralogical and geomechanical properties of reservoir and seal rocks, Crystal Geyser, Green River, Utah

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Major, J. R.; Eichhubl, P.; Urquhart, A.; Dewers, T. A.

2012-12-01

An understanding of the coupled chemical and mechanical properties of reservoir and seal units undergoing CO2 injection is critical for modeling reservoir behavior in response to the introduction of CO2. The implementation of CO2 sequestration as a mitigation strategy for climate change requires extensive risk assessment that relies heavily on computer models of subsurface reservoirs. Numerical models are fundamentally limited by the quality and validity of their input parameters. Existing models generally lack constraints on diagenesis, failing to account for the coupled geochemical or geomechanical processes that affect reservoir and seal unit properties during and after CO2 injection. For example, carbonate dissolution or precipitation after injection of CO2 into subsurface brines may significantly alter the geomechanical properties of reservoir and seal units and thus lead to solution-enhancement or self-sealing of fractures. Acidified brines may erode and breach sealing units. In addition, subcritical fracture growth enhanced by the presence of CO2 could ultimately compromise the integrity of sealing units, or enhance permeability and porosity of the reservoir itself. Such unknown responses to the introduction of CO2 can be addressed by laboratory and field-based observations and measurements. Studies of natural analogs like Crystal Geyser, Utah are thus a critical part of CO2 sequestration research. The Little Grand Wash and Salt Wash fault systems near Green River, Utah, host many fossil and active CO2 seeps, including Crystal Geyser, serving as a faulted anticline CO2 reservoir analog. The site has been extensively studied for sequestration and reservoir applications, but less attention has been paid to the diagenetic and geomechanical aspects of the fault zone. XRD analysis of reservoir and sealing rocks collected along transects across the Little Grand Wash Fault reveal mineralogical trends in the Summerville Fm (a siltstone seal unit) with calcite and smectite increasing toward to the fault, whereas illite decreases. These trends are likely the result of CO2-related diagenesis, and similar trends are also observed in sandstone units at the site. Fracture mechanics testing of unaltered and CO2-altered sandstone and siltstone samples shows that CO2-related diagenesis, which is indicated by bleaching of the Entrada Fm, has significantly decreased the fracture resistance. The subcritical fracture index is similarly affected by alteration. These compositional and mechanical changes are expected to affect the extent, geometry, and flow properties of fracture networks in CO2 sequestration systems, and thus may significantly affect reservoir and seal performance in CO2 reservoirs. This work was funded in part by the Center for Frontiers of Subsurface Energy Security, an Energy Frontier Research Center funded by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of Basic Energy Sciences under Award Number DE-SC0001114. Sandia National Laboratories is a multi-program laboratory managed and operated by Sandia Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lockheed Martin Corporation, for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.

Flow unit modeling and fine-scale predicted permeability validation in Atokan sandstones: Norcan East Kansas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bhattacharya, S.; Byrnes, A.P.; Watney, W.L.; Doveton, J.H.

2008-01-01

Characterizing the reservoir interval into flow units is an effective way to subdivide the net-pay zone into layers for reservoir simulation. Commonly used flow unit identification techniques require a reliable estimate of permeability in the net pay on a foot-by-foot basis. Most of the wells do not have cores, and the literature is replete with different kinds of correlations, transforms, and prediction methods for profiling permeability in pay. However, for robust flow unit determination, predicted permeability at noncored wells requires validation and, if necessary, refinement. This study outlines the use o f a spreadsheet-based permeability validation technique to characterize flow units in wells from the Norcan East field, Clark County, Kansas, that produce from Atokan aged fine- to very fine-grained quartzarenite sandstones interpreted to have been deposited in brackish-water, tidally dominated restricted tidal-flat, tidal-channel, tidal-bar, and estuary bay environments within a small incised-valley-fill system. The methodology outlined enables the identification of fieldwide free-water level and validates and refines predicted permeability at 0.5-ft (0.15-m) intervals by iteratively reconciling differences in water saturation calculated from wire-line log and a capillary-pressure formulation that models fine- to very fine-grained sandstone with diagenetic clay and silt or shale laminae. The effectiveness of this methodology was confirmed by successfully matching primary and secondary production histories using a flow unit-based reservoir model of the Norcan East field without permeability modifications. The methodologies discussed should prove useful for robust flow unit characterization of different kinds of reservoirs. Copyright ?? 2008. The American Association of Petroleum Geologists. All rights reserved.

SWAT-based streamflow and embayment modeling of Karst-affected Chapel branch watershed, South Carolina

Treesearch

Devendra Amatya; M. Jha; A.E. Edwards; T.M. Williams; D.R. Hitchcock

2011-01-01

SWAT is a GIS-based basin-scale model widely used for the characterization of hydrology and water quality of large, complex watersheds; however, SWAT has not been fully tested in watersheds with karst geomorphology and downstream reservoir-like embayment. In this study, SWAT was applied to test its ability to predict monthly streamflow dynamics for a 1,555 ha karst...