reservoir simulation model: Topics by Science.gov

Sample records for reservoir simulation model

Simulating reservoir leakage in ground-water models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fenske, J.P.; Leake, S.A.; Prudic, David E.

1997-01-01

Leakage to ground water resulting from the expansion and contraction of reservoirs cannot be easily simulated by most ground-water flow models. An algorithm, entitled the Reservoir Package, was developed for the United States Geological Survey (USGS) three-dimensional finite-difference modular ground-water flow model MODFLOW. The Reservoir Package automates the process of specifying head-dependent boundary cells, eliminating the need to divide a simulation into many stress periods while improving accuracy in simulating changes in ground-water levels resulting from transient reservoir stage. Leakage between the reservoir and the underlying aquifer is simulated for each model cell corrresponding to the inundated area by multiplying the head difference between the reservoir and the aquifer with the hydraulic conductance of the reservoir-bed sediments.
[Coupling SWAT and CE-QUAL-W2 models to simulate water quantity and quality in Shanmei Reservoir watershed].

PubMed

Liu, Mei-Bing; Chen, Dong-Ping; Chen, Xing-Wei; Chen, Ying

2013-12-01

A coupled watershed-reservoir modeling approach consisting of a watershed distributed model (SWAT) and a two-dimensional laterally averaged model (CE-QUAL-W2) was adopted for simulating the impact of non-point source pollution from upland watershed on water quality of Shanmei Reservoir. Using the daily serial output from Shanmei Reservoir watershed by SWAT as the input to Shanmei Reservoir by CE-QUAL-W2, the coupled modeling was calibrated for runoff and outputs of sediment and pollutant at watershed scale and for elevation, temperature, nitrate, ammonium and total nitrogen in Shanmei Reservoir. The results indicated that the simulated values agreed fairly well with the observed data, although the calculation precision of downstream model would be affected by the accumulative errors generated from the simulation of upland model. The SWAT and CE-QUAL-W2 coupled modeling could be used to assess the hydrodynamic and water quality process in complex watershed comprised of upland watershed and downstream reservoir, and might further provide scientific basis for positioning key pollution source area and controlling the reservoir eutrophication.
Improving the result of forcasting using reservoir and surface network simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hendri, R. S.; Winarta, J.

2018-01-01

This study was aimed to get more representative results in production forcasting using integrated simulation in pipeline gathering system of X field. There are 5 main scenarios which consist of the production forecast of the existing condition, work over, and infill drilling. Then, it’s determined the best development scenario. The methods of this study is Integrated Reservoir Simulator and Pipeline Simulator so-calle as Integrated Reservoir and Surface Network Simulation. After well data result from reservoir simulator was then integrated with pipeline networking simulator’s to construct a new schedule, which was input for all simulation procedure. The well design result was done by well modeling simulator then exported into pipeline simulator. Reservoir prediction depends on the minimum value of Tubing Head Pressure (THP) for each well, where the pressure drop on the Gathering Network is not necessary calculated. The same scenario was done also for the single-reservoir simulation. Integration Simulation produces results approaching the actual condition of the reservoir and was confirmed by the THP profile, which difference between those two methods. The difference between integrated simulation compared to single-modeling simulation is 6-9%. The aimed of solving back-pressure problem in pipeline gathering system of X field is achieved.
Reservoir-development impacts on surface-water quantity and quality in the Yampa River basin, Colorado and Wyoming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Adams, D. Briane; Bauer, Daniel P.; Dale, Robert H.; Steele, Timothy Doak

1983-01-01

Development of coal resources and associated economy is accelerating in the Yampa River basin in northwestern Colorado and south-central Wyoming. Increased use of the water resources of the area will have a direct impact on their quantity and quality. As part of 18 surface-water projects, 35 reservoirs have been proposed with a combined total storage of 2.18 million acre-feet, 41% greater than the mean annual outflow from the basin. Three computer models were used to demonstrate methods of evaluating future impacts of reservoir development in the Yampa River basin. Four different reservoir configurations were used to simulate the effects of different degrees of proposed reservoir development. A multireservoir-flow model included both within-basin and transmountain diversions. Simulations indicated that in many cases diversion amounts would not be available for either type of diversion. A corresponding frequency analysis of reservoir storage levels indicated that most reservoirs would be operating with small percentages of total capacities and generally with less than 20% of conservation-pool volumes. Simulations using a dissolved-solids model indicated that extensive reservoir development could increase average annual concentrations at most locations. Simulations using a single-reservoir model indicated no significant occurrence of water-temperature stratification in most reservoirs due to limited reservoir storage. (USGS)
Integrated reservoir characterization and flow simulation for well targeting and reservoir management, Iagifu-Hedinia field, Southern Highlands Province, Papua New Guinea

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Franklin, S.P.; Livingston, J.E.; Fitzmorris, R.E.

Infill drilling based on integrated reservoir characterization and flow simulation is increasing recoverable reserves by 20 MMBO, in lagifu-Hedinia Field (IHF). Stratigraphically-zoned models are input to window and full-field flow simulations, and results of the flow simulations target deviated and horizontal wells. Logging and pressure surveys facilitate detailed reservoir management. Flooding surfaces are the dominant control on differential depletion within and between reservoirs. The primary reservoir is the basal Cretaceous Toro Sandstone. Within the IHF, Toro is a 100 m quartz sandstone composed of stacked, coarsening-upward parasequences within a wave-dominated deltaic complex. Flooding surfaces are used to form a hydraulicmore » zonation. The zonation is refined using discontinuities in RIFT pressure gradients and logs from development wells. For flow simulation, models use 3D geostatistical techniques. First, variograms defining spatial correlation are developed. The variograms are used to construct 3D porosity and permeability models which reflect the stratigraphic facies models. Structure models are built using dipmeter, biostratigraphic, and surface data. Deviated wells often cross axial surfaces and geometry is predicted from dip domain and SCAT. Faults are identified using pressure transient data and dipmeter. The Toro reservoir is subnormally pressured and fluid contacts are hydrodynamically tilted. The hydrodynamic flow and tilted contacts are modeled by flow simulation and constrained by maps of the potentiometric surface.« less
Surrogate Reservoir Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohaghegh, Shahab

2010-05-01

Surrogate Reservoir Model (SRM) is new solution for fast track, comprehensive reservoir analysis (solving both direct and inverse problems) using existing reservoir simulation models. SRM is defined as a replica of the full field reservoir simulation model that runs and provides accurate results in real-time (one simulation run takes only a fraction of a second). SRM mimics the capabilities of a full field model with high accuracy. Reservoir simulation is the industry standard for reservoir management. It is used in all phases of field development in the oil and gas industry. The routine of simulation studies calls for integration of static and dynamic measurements into the reservoir model. Full field reservoir simulation models have become the major source of information for analysis, prediction and decision making. Large prolific fields usually go through several versions (updates) of their model. Each new version usually is a major improvement over the previous version. The updated model includes the latest available information incorporated along with adjustments that usually are the result of single-well or multi-well history matching. As the number of reservoir layers (thickness of the formations) increases, the number of cells representing the model approaches several millions. As the reservoir models grow in size, so does the time that is required for each run. Schemes such as grid computing and parallel processing helps to a certain degree but do not provide the required speed for tasks such as: field development strategies using comprehensive reservoir analysis, solving the inverse problem for injection/production optimization, quantifying uncertainties associated with the geological model and real-time optimization and decision making. These types of analyses require hundreds or thousands of runs. Furthermore, with the new push for smart fields in the oil/gas industry that is a natural growth of smart completion and smart wells, the need for real time reservoir modeling becomes more pronounced. SRM is developed using the state of the art in neural computing and fuzzy pattern recognition to address the ever growing need in the oil and gas industry to perform accurate, but high speed simulation and modeling. Unlike conventional geo-statistical approaches (response surfaces, proxy models …) that require hundreds of simulation runs for development, SRM is developed only with a few (from 10 to 30 runs) simulation runs. SRM can be developed regularly (as new versions of the full field model become available) off-line and can be put online for real-time processing to guide important decisions. SRM has proven its value in the field. An SRM was developed for a giant oil field in the Middle East. The model included about one million grid blocks with more than 165 horizontal wells and took ten hours for a single run on 12 parallel CPUs. Using only 10 simulation runs, an SRM was developed that was able to accurately mimic the behavior of the reservoir simulation model. Performing a comprehensive reservoir analysis that included making millions of SRM runs, wells in the field were divided into five clusters. It was predicted that wells in cluster one & two are best candidates for rate relaxation with minimal, long term water production while wells in clusters four and five are susceptive to high water cuts. Two and a half years and 20 wells later, rate relaxation results from the field proved that all the predictions made by the SRM analysis were correct. While incremental oil production increased in all wells (wells in clusters 1 produced the most followed by wells in cluster 2, 3 …) the percent change in average monthly water cut for wells in each cluster clearly demonstrated the analytic power of SRM. As it was correctly predicted, wells in clusters 1 and 2 actually experience a reduction in water cut while a substantial increase in water cut was observed in wells classified into clusters 4 and 5. Performing these analyses would have been impossible using the original full field simulation model.
High resolution modeling of reservoir storage and extent dynamics at the continental scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shin, S.; Pokhrel, Y. N.

2017-12-01

Over the past decade, significant progress has been made in developing reservoir schemes in large scale hydrological models to better simulate hydrological fluxes and storages in highly managed river basins. These schemes have been successfully used to study the impact of reservoir operation on global river basins. However, improvements in the existing schemes are needed for hydrological fluxes and storages, especially at the spatial resolution to be used in hyper-resolution hydrological modeling. In this study, we developed a reservoir routing scheme with explicit representation of reservoir storage and extent at the grid scale of 5km or less. Instead of setting reservoir area to a fixed value or diagnosing it using the area-storage equation, which is a commonly used approach in the existing reservoir schemes, we explicitly simulate the inundated storage and area for all grid cells that are within the reservoir extent. This approach enables a better simulation of river-floodplain-reservoir storage by considering both the natural flood and man-made reservoir storage. Results of the seasonal dynamics of reservoir storage, river discharge at the downstream of dams, and the reservoir inundation extent are evaluated with various datasets from ground-observations and satellite measurements. The new model captures the dynamics of these variables with a good accuracy for most of the large reservoirs in the western United States. It is expected that the incorporation of the newly developed reservoir scheme in large-scale land surface models (LSMs) will lead to improved simulation of river flow and terrestrial water storage in highly managed river basins.
Review on applications of artificial intelligence methods for dam and reservoir-hydro-environment models.

PubMed

Allawi, Mohammed Falah; Jaafar, Othman; Mohamad Hamzah, Firdaus; Abdullah, Sharifah Mastura Syed; El-Shafie, Ahmed

2018-05-01

Efficacious operation for dam and reservoir system could guarantee not only a defenselessness policy against natural hazard but also identify rule to meet the water demand. Successful operation of dam and reservoir systems to ensure optimal use of water resources could be unattainable without accurate and reliable simulation models. According to the highly stochastic nature of hydrologic parameters, developing accurate predictive model that efficiently mimic such a complex pattern is an increasing domain of research. During the last two decades, artificial intelligence (AI) techniques have been significantly utilized for attaining a robust modeling to handle different stochastic hydrological parameters. AI techniques have also shown considerable progress in finding optimal rules for reservoir operation. This review research explores the history of developing AI in reservoir inflow forecasting and prediction of evaporation from a reservoir as the major components of the reservoir simulation. In addition, critical assessment of the advantages and disadvantages of integrated AI simulation methods with optimization methods has been reported. Future research on the potential of utilizing new innovative methods based AI techniques for reservoir simulation and optimization models have also been discussed. Finally, proposal for the new mathematical procedure to accomplish the realistic evaluation of the whole optimization model performance (reliability, resilience, and vulnerability indices) has been recommended.
Reservoir simulation with MUFITS code: Extension for double porosity reservoirs and flows in horizontal wells

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Afanasyev, Andrey

2017-04-01

Numerical modelling of multiphase flows in porous medium is necessary in many applications concerning subsurface utilization. An incomplete list of those applications includes oil and gas fields exploration, underground carbon dioxide storage and geothermal energy production. The numerical simulations are conducted using complicated computer programs called reservoir simulators. A robust simulator should include a wide range of modelling options covering various exploration techniques, rock and fluid properties, and geological settings. In this work we present a recent development of new options in MUFITS code [1]. The first option concerns modelling of multiphase flows in double-porosity double-permeability reservoirs. We describe internal representation of reservoir models in MUFITS, which are constructed as a 3D graph of grid blocks, pipe segments, interfaces, etc. In case of double porosity reservoir, two linked nodes of the graph correspond to a grid cell. We simulate the 6th SPE comparative problem [2] and a five-spot geothermal production problem to validate the option. The second option concerns modelling of flows in porous medium coupled with flows in horizontal wells that are represented in the 3D graph as a sequence of pipe segments linked with pipe junctions. The well completions link the pipe segments with reservoir. The hydraulics in the wellbore, i.e. the frictional pressure drop, is calculated in accordance with Haaland's formula. We validate the option against the 7th SPE comparative problem [3]. We acknowledge financial support by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (project No RFBR-15-31-20585). References [1] Afanasyev, A. MUFITS Reservoir Simulation Software (www.mufits.imec.msu.ru). [2] Firoozabadi A. et al. Sixth SPE Comparative Solution Project: Dual-Porosity Simulators // J. Petrol. Tech. 1990. V.42. N.6. P.710-715. [3] Nghiem L., et al. Seventh SPE Comparative Solution Project: Modelling of Horizontal Wells in Reservoir Simulation // SPE Symp. Res. Sim., 1991. DOI: 10.2118/21221-MS.
Gas network model allows full reservoir coupling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Methnani, M.M.

The gas-network flow model (Gasnet) developed for and added to an existing Qatar General Petroleum Corp. (OGPC) in-house reservoir simulator, allows improved modeling of the interaction among the reservoir, wells, and pipeline networks. Gasnet is a three-phase model that is modified to handle gas-condensate systems. The numerical solution is based on a control volume scheme that uses the concept of cells and junctions, whereby pressure and phase densities are defined in cells, while phase flows are defined at junction links. The model features common numerical equations for the reservoir, the well, and the pipeline components and an efficient state-variable solutionmore » method in which all primary variables including phase flows are solved directly. Both steady-state and transient flow events can be simulated with the same tool. Three test cases show how the model runs. One case simulates flow redistribution in a simple two-branch gas network. The second simulates a horizontal gas well in a waterflooded gas reservoir. The third involves an export gas pipeline coupled to a producing reservoir.« less
The Impacts of Miyun Reservoirs on Local Climate: A Modeling Study Using WRF-Lake Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, F.; Xing, Y.; Sun, T.; Ni, G.

2016-12-01

Large reservoirs, where a great volume of water is stored for various purposes (e.g. hydropower generation, irrigation, transportation, recreation, etc.), play a key role in regional hydrological cycles as well as in modulating the local climate. In particular, to understand the impacts of reservoirs on local climate, numeric simulations are widely conducted using different weather prediction (NWP) models. However, some of these NWP models treat reservoirs as water surfaces with prescribed surface temperatures and thus the hydrothermal dynamics within water bodies are missing. In this study, we use the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with a lake module, which is equipped with the ability to simulate full thermal dynamics of water, to examine the impacts of Miyun Reservoir, the largest reservoir in Beijing, on the local climate. Simulations are conducted from July 1 to August 1, 2010 in a one-way nesting mode of three spatial resolutions (i.e., 9 km, 3 km and 1 km). Comparison between the simulation results and observations shows a general agreement and demonstrates the ability of WRF-Lake in simulating the summertime climate in the study area. The simulation results indicate the Miyun Reservoir significantly reduces daytime air temperature at 2 m above the water surface and its surroundings by a maximum of 4 K as compared with the case without a reservoir, and such impacts diminish at a distance of 90 km from the reservoir center (a decrease of 0.2 K). At night, a maximum increase of 1.4 K is simulated for the air temperature above the reservoir, but the influencing area is very limited. The reservoir also increases the local air specific humidity by 0.0025 kg kg-1. In addition to near surface meteorology, surface energy balance is remarkably changed as compared to the case without a reservoir: a daytime decrease of 100 W m-2 and a nighttime increase of 15 W m-2are simulated for the sensible heat flux. It is noteworthy that the latent heat flux decreases in the daytime and slightly increases at night. It should also be noted that the influencing area is strongly dependent on the wind direction. This study provides a better understanding of the water-atmosphere interactions by reservoirs and their impacts on local climate.
The impact of lake and reservoir parameterization on global streamflow simulation.

PubMed

Zajac, Zuzanna; Revilla-Romero, Beatriz; Salamon, Peter; Burek, Peter; Hirpa, Feyera A; Beck, Hylke

2017-05-01

Lakes and reservoirs affect the timing and magnitude of streamflow, and are therefore essential hydrological model components, especially in the context of global flood forecasting. However, the parameterization of lake and reservoir routines on a global scale is subject to considerable uncertainty due to lack of information on lake hydrographic characteristics and reservoir operating rules. In this study we estimated the effect of lakes and reservoirs on global daily streamflow simulations of a spatially-distributed LISFLOOD hydrological model. We applied state-of-the-art global sensitivity and uncertainty analyses for selected catchments to examine the effect of uncertain lake and reservoir parameterization on model performance. Streamflow observations from 390 catchments around the globe and multiple performance measures were used to assess model performance. Results indicate a considerable geographical variability in the lake and reservoir effects on the streamflow simulation. Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) and Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) metrics improved for 65% and 38% of catchments respectively, with median skill score values of 0.16 and 0.2 while scores deteriorated for 28% and 52% of the catchments, with median values -0.09 and -0.16, respectively. The effect of reservoirs on extreme high flows was substantial and widespread in the global domain, while the effect of lakes was spatially limited to a few catchments. As indicated by global sensitivity analysis, parameter uncertainty substantially affected uncertainty of model performance. Reservoir parameters often contributed to this uncertainty, although the effect varied widely among catchments. The effect of reservoir parameters on model performance diminished with distance downstream of reservoirs in favor of other parameters, notably groundwater-related parameters and channel Manning's roughness coefficient. This study underscores the importance of accounting for lakes and, especially, reservoirs and using appropriate parameterization in large-scale hydrological simulations.
Development and evaluation of a reservoir model for the Chain of Lakes in Illinois

USGS Publications Warehouse

Domanski, Marian M.

2017-01-27

Forecasts of flows entering and leaving the Chain of Lakes reservoir on the Fox River in northeastern Illinois are critical information to water-resource managers who determine the optimal operation of the dam at McHenry, Illinois, to help minimize damages to property and loss of life because of flooding on the Fox River. In 2014, the U.S. Geological Survey; the Illinois Department of Natural Resources, Office of Water Resources; and National Weather Service, North Central River Forecast Center began a cooperative study to develop a system to enable engineers and planners to simulate and communicate flows and to prepare proactively for precipitation events in near real time in the upper Fox River watershed. The purpose of this report is to document the development and evaluation of the Chain of Lakes reservoir model developed in this study.The reservoir model for the Chain of Lakes was developed using the Hydrologic Engineering Center–Reservoir System Simulation program. Because of the complex relation between the dam headwater and reservoir pool elevations, the reservoir model uses a linear regression model that relates dam headwater elevation to reservoir pool elevation. The linear regression model was developed using 17 U.S. Geological Survey streamflow measurements, along with the gage height in the reservoir pool and the gage height at the dam headwater. The Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficients for all three linear regression model variables ranged from 0.90 to 0.98.The reservoir model performance was evaluated by graphically comparing simulated and observed reservoir pool elevation time series during nine periods of high pool elevation. In addition, the peak elevations during these time periods were graphically compared to the closest-in-time observed pool elevation peak. The mean difference in the simulated and observed peak elevations was -0.03 feet, with a standard deviation of 0.19 feet. The Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient for peak prediction was calculated as 0.94. Evaluation of the model based on accuracy of peak prediction and the ability to simulate an elevation time series showed the performance of the model was satisfactory.
Simulation of Hydrodynamics and Water Quality in Pueblo Reservoir, Southeastern Colorado, for 1985 through 1987 and 1999 through 2002

USGS Publications Warehouse

Galloway, Joel M.; Ortiz, Roderick F.; Bales, Jerad D.; Mau, David P.

2008-01-01

Pueblo Reservoir is west of Pueblo, Colorado, and is an important water resource for southeastern Colorado. The reservoir provides irrigation, municipal, and industrial water to various entities throughout the region. In anticipation of increased population growth, the cities of Colorado Springs, Fountain, Security, and Pueblo West have proposed building a pipeline that would be capable of conveying 78 million gallons of raw water per day (240 acre-feet) from Pueblo Reservoir. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Colorado Springs Utilities and the Bureau of Reclamation, developed, calibrated, and verified a hydrodynamic and water-quality model of Pueblo Reservoir to describe the hydrologic, chemical, and biological processes in Pueblo Reservoir that can be used to assess environmental effects in the reservoir. Hydrodynamics and water-quality characteristics in Pueblo Reservoir were simulated using a laterally averaged, two-dimensional model that was calibrated using data collected from October 1985 through September 1987. The Pueblo Reservoir model was calibrated based on vertical profiles of water temperature and dissolved-oxygen concentration, and water-quality constituent concentrations collected in the epilimnion and hypolimnion at four sites in the reservoir. The calibrated model was verified with data from October 1999 through September 2002, which included a relatively wet year (water year 2000), an average year (water year 2001), and a dry year (water year 2002). Simulated water temperatures compared well to measured water temperatures in Pueblo Reservoir from October 1985 through September 1987. Spatially, simulated water temperatures compared better to measured water temperatures in the downstream part of the reservoir than in the upstream part of the reservoir. Differences between simulated and measured water temperatures also varied through time. Simulated water temperatures were slightly less than measured water temperatures from March to May 1986 and 1987, and slightly greater than measured data in August and September 1987. Relative to the calibration period, simulated water temperatures during the verification period did not compare as well to measured water temperatures. In general, simulated dissolved-oxygen concentrations for the calibration period compared well to measured concentrations in Pueblo Reservoir. Spatially, simulated concentrations deviated more from the measured values at the downstream part of the reservoir than at other locations in the reservoir. Overall, the absolute mean error ranged from 1.05 (site 1B) to 1.42 milligrams per liter (site 7B), and the root mean square error ranged from 1.12 (site 1B) to 1.67 milligrams per liter (site 7B). Simulated dissolved oxygen in the verification period compared better to the measured concentrations than in the calibration period. The absolute mean error ranged from 0.91 (site 5C) to 1.28 milligrams per liter (site 7B), and the root mean square error ranged from 1.03 (site 5C) to 1.46 milligrams per liter (site 7B). Simulated total dissolved solids generally were less than measured total dissolved-solids concentrations in Pueblo Reservoir from October 1985 through September 1987. The largest differences between simulated and measured total dissolved solids were observed at the most downstream sites in Pueblo Reservoir during the second year of the calibration period. Total dissolved-solids data were not available from reservoir sites during the verification period, so in-reservoir specific-conductance data were compared to simulated total dissolved solids. Simulated total dissolved solids followed the same patterns through time as the measured specific conductance data during the verification period. Simulated total nitrogen concentrations compared relatively well to measured concentrations in the Pueblo Reservoir model. The absolute mean error ranged from 0.21 (site 1B) to 0.27 milligram per liter as nitrogen (sites 3B and 7
Hydrodynamic modeling of petroleum reservoirs using simulator MUFITS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Afanasyev, Andrey

2015-04-01

MUFITS is new noncommercial software for numerical modeling of subsurface processes in various applications (www.mufits.imec.msu.ru). To this point, the simulator was used for modeling nonisothermal flows in geothermal reservoirs and for modeling underground carbon dioxide storage. In this work, we present recent extension of the code to petroleum reservoirs. The simulator can be applied in conventional black oil modeling, but it also utilizes a more complicated models for volatile oil and gas condensate reservoirs as well as for oil rim fields. We give a brief overview of the code by providing the description of internal representation of reservoir models, which are constructed of grid blocks, interfaces, stock tanks as well as of pipe segments and pipe junctions for modeling wells and surface networks. For conventional black oil approach, we present the simulation results for SPE comparative tests. We propose an accelerated compositional modeling method for sub- and supercritical flows subjected to various phase equilibria, particularly to three-phase equilibria of vapour-liquid-liquid type. The method is based on the calculation of the thermodynamic potential of reservoir fluid as a function of pressure, total enthalpy and total composition and storing its values as a spline table, which is used in hydrodynamic simulation for accelerated PVT properties prediction. We provide the description of both the spline calculation procedure and the flashing algorithm. We evaluate the thermodynamic potential for a mixture of two pseudo-components modeling the heavy and light hydrocarbon fractions. We develop a technique for converting black oil PVT tables to the potential, which can be used for in-situ hydrocarbons multiphase equilibria prediction under sub- and supercritical conditions, particularly, in gas condensate and volatile oil reservoirs. We simulate recovery from a reservoir subject to near-critical initial conditions for hydrocarbon mixture. We acknowledge financial support by a Grant from the president of the Russian Federation (SP-2222.2012.5) and by Russian foundation for basic research (RFBR 15-31-20585).
Static reservoir modeling of the Bahariya reservoirs for the oilfields development in South Umbarka area, Western Desert, Egypt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdel-Fattah, Mohamed I.; Metwalli, Farouk I.; Mesilhi, El Sayed I.

2018-02-01

3D static reservoir modeling of the Bahariya reservoirs using seismic and wells data can be a relevant part of an overall strategy for the oilfields development in South Umbarka area (Western Desert, Egypt). The seismic data is used to build the 3D grid, including fault sticks for the fault modeling, and horizon interpretations and surfaces for horizon modeling. The 3D grid is the digital representation of the structural geology of Bahariya Formation. When we got a reasonably accurate representation, we fill the 3D grid with facies and petrophysical properties to simulate it, to gain a more precise understanding of the reservoir properties behavior. Sequential Indicator Simulation (SIS) and Sequential Gaussian Simulation (SGS) techniques are the stochastic algorithms used to spatially distribute discrete reservoir properties (facies) and continuous reservoir properties (shale volume, porosity, and water saturation) respectively within the created 3D grid throughout property modeling. The structural model of Bahariya Formation exhibits the trapping mechanism which is a fault assisted anticlinal closure trending NW-SE. This major fault breaks the reservoirs into two major fault blocks (North Block and South Block). Petrophysical models classified Lower Bahariya reservoir as a moderate to good reservoir rather than Upper Bahariya reservoir in terms of facies, with good porosity and permeability, low water saturation, and moderate net to gross. The Original Oil In Place (OOIP) values of modeled Bahariya reservoirs show hydrocarbon accumulation in economic quantity, considering the high structural dips at the central part of South Umbarka area. The powerful of 3D static modeling technique has provided a considerable insight into the future prediction of Bahariya reservoirs performance and production behavior.
Numerical Simulation of Two Dimensional Flows in Yazidang Reservoir

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Lingxiao; Liu, Libo; Sun, Xuehong; Zheng, Lanxiang; Jing, Hefang; Zhang, Xuande; Li, Chunguang

2018-01-01

This paper studied the problem of water flow in the Yazid Ang reservoir. It built 2-D RNG turbulent model, rated the boundary conditions, used the finite volume method to discrete equations and divided the grid by the advancing-front method. It simulated the two conditions of reservoir flow field, compared the average vertical velocity of the simulated value and the measured value nearby the water inlet and the water intake. The results showed that the mathematical model could be applied to the similar industrial water reservoir.
Eos modeling and reservoir simulation study of bakken gas injection improved oil recovery in the elm coulee field, Montana

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pu, Wanli

The Bakken Formation in the Williston Basin is one of the most productive liquid-rich unconventional plays. The Bakken Formation is divided into three members, and the Middle Bakken Member is the primary target for horizontal wellbore landing and hydraulic fracturing because of its better rock properties. Even with this new technology, the primary recovery factor is believed to be only around 10%. This study is to evaluate various gas injection EOR methods to try to improve on that low recovery factor of 10%. In this study, the Elm Coulee Oil Field in the Williston Basin was selected as the area of interest. Static reservoir models featuring the rock property heterogeneity of the Middle Bakken Member were built, and fluid property models were built based on Bakken reservoir fluid sample PVT data. By employing both compositional model simulation and Todd-Longstaff solvent model simulation methods, miscible gas injections were simulated and the simulations speculated that oil recovery increased by 10% to 20% of OOIP in 30 years. The compositional simulations yielded lower oil recovery compared to the solvent model simulations. Compared to the homogeneous model, the reservoir model featuring rock property heterogeneity in the vertical direction resulted in slightly better oil recovery, but with earlier CO2 break-through and larger CO2 production, suggesting that rock property heterogeneity is an important property for modeling because it has a big effect on the simulation results. Long hydraulic fractures shortened CO2 break-through time greatly and increased CO 2 production. Water-alternating-gas injection schemes and injection-alternating-shut-in schemes can provide more options for gas injection EOR projects, especially for gas production management. Compared to CO2 injection, separator gas injection yielded slightly better oil recovery, meaning separator gas could be a good candidate for gas injection EOR; lean gas generated the worst results. Reservoir simulations also indicate that original rock properties are the dominant factor for the ultimate oil recovery for both primary recovery and gas injection EOR. Because reservoir simulations provide critical inputs for project planning and management, more effort needs to be invested into reservoir modeling and simulation, including building enhanced geologic models, fracture characterization and modeling, and history matching with field data. Gas injection EOR projects are integrated projects, and the viability of a project also depends on different economic conditions.
The potential of coordinated reservoir operation for flood mitigation in large basins - A case study on the Bavarian Danube using coupled hydrological-hydrodynamic models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seibert, S. P.; Skublics, D.; Ehret, U.

2014-09-01

The coordinated operation of reservoirs in large-scale river basins has great potential to improve flood mitigation. However, this requires large scale hydrological models to translate the effect of reservoir operation to downstream points of interest, in a quality sufficient for the iterative development of optimized operation strategies. And, of course, it requires reservoirs large enough to make a noticeable impact. In this paper, we present and discuss several methods dealing with these prerequisites for reservoir operation using the example of three major floods in the Bavarian Danube basin (45,000 km2) and nine reservoirs therein: We start by presenting an approach for multi-criteria evaluation of model performance during floods, including aspects of local sensitivity to simulation quality. Then we investigate the potential of joint hydrologic-2d-hydrodynamic modeling to improve model performance. Based on this, we evaluate upper limits of reservoir impact under idealized conditions (perfect knowledge of future rainfall) with two methods: Detailed simulations and statistical analysis of the reservoirs' specific retention volume. Finally, we investigate to what degree reservoir operation strategies optimized for local (downstream vicinity to the reservoir) and regional (at the Danube) points of interest are compatible. With respect to model evaluation, we found that the consideration of local sensitivities to simulation quality added valuable information not included in the other evaluation criteria (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency and Peak timing). With respect to the second question, adding hydrodynamic models to the model chain did, contrary to our expectations, not improve simulations, despite the fact that under idealized conditions (using observed instead of simulated lateral inflow) the hydrodynamic models clearly outperformed the routing schemes of the hydrological models. Apparently, the advantages of hydrodynamic models could not be fully exploited when fed by output from hydrological models afflicted with systematic errors in volume and timing. This effect could potentially be reduced by joint calibration of the hydrological-hydrodynamic model chain. Finally, based on the combination of the simulation-based and statistical impact assessment, we identified one reservoir potentially useful for coordinated, regional flood mitigation for the Danube. While this finding is specific to our test basin, the more interesting and generally valid finding is that operation strategies optimized for local and regional flood mitigation are not necessarily mutually exclusive, sometimes they are identical, sometimes they can, due to temporal offsets, be pursued simultaneously.
Simulation of California's Major Reservoirs Outflow Using Data Mining Technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, T.; Gao, X.; Sorooshian, S.

2014-12-01

The reservoir's outflow is controlled by reservoir operators, which is different from the upstream inflow. The outflow is more important than the reservoir's inflow for the downstream water users. In order to simulate the complicated reservoir operation and extract the outflow decision making patterns for California's 12 major reservoirs, we build a data-driven, computer-based ("artificial intelligent") reservoir decision making tool, using decision regression and classification tree approach. This is a well-developed statistical and graphical modeling methodology in the field of data mining. A shuffled cross validation approach is also employed to extract the outflow decision making patterns and rules based on the selected decision variables (inflow amount, precipitation, timing, water type year etc.). To show the accuracy of the model, a verification study is carried out comparing the model-generated outflow decisions ("artificial intelligent" decisions) with that made by reservoir operators (human decisions). The simulation results show that the machine-generated outflow decisions are very similar to the real reservoir operators' decisions. This conclusion is based on statistical evaluations using the Nash-Sutcliffe test. The proposed model is able to detect the most influential variables and their weights when the reservoir operators make an outflow decision. While the proposed approach was firstly applied and tested on California's 12 major reservoirs, the method is universally adaptable to other reservoir systems.

Numerical simulation of groundwater movement and managed aquifer recharge from Sand Hollow Reservoir, Hurricane Bench area, Washington County, Utah

USGS Publications Warehouse

Marston, Thomas M.; Heilweil, Victor M.

2012-01-01

The Hurricane Bench area of Washington County, Utah, is a 70 square-mile area extending south from the Virgin River and encompassing Sand Hollow basin. Sand Hollow Reservoir, located on Hurricane Bench, was completed in March 2002 and is operated primarily as a managed aquifer recharge project by the Washington County Water Conservancy District. The reservoir is situated on a thick sequence of the Navajo Sandstone and Kayenta Formation. Total recharge to the underlying Navajo aquifer from the reservoir was about 86,000 acre-feet from 2002 to 2009. Natural recharge as infiltration of precipitation was approximately 2,100 acre-feet per year for the same period. Discharge occurs as seepage to the Virgin River, municipal and irrigation well withdrawals, and seepage to drains at the base of reservoir dams. Within the Hurricane Bench area, unconfined groundwater-flow conditions generally exist throughout the Navajo Sandstone. Navajo Sandstone hydraulic-conductivity values from regional aquifer testing range from 0.8 to 32 feet per day. The large variability in hydraulic conductivity is attributed to bedrock fractures that trend north-northeast across the study area.A numerical groundwater-flow model was developed to simulate groundwater movement in the Hurricane Bench area and to simulate the movement of managed aquifer recharge from Sand Hollow Reservoir through the groundwater system. The model was calibrated to combined steady- and transient-state conditions. The steady-state portion of the simulation was developed and calibrated by using hydrologic data that represented average conditions for 1975. The transient-state portion of the simulation was developed and calibrated by using hydrologic data collected from 1976 to 2009. Areally, the model grid was 98 rows by 76 columns with a variable cell size ranging from about 1.5 to 25 acres. Smaller cells were used to represent the reservoir to accurately simulate the reservoir bathymetry and nearby monitoring wells; larger cells were used in the northern and southern portions of the model where water-level data were limited. Vertically, the aquifer system was divided into 10 layers, which incorporated the Navajo Sandstone and Kayenta Formation. The model simulated recharge to the groundwater system as natural infiltration of precipitation and as infiltration of managed aquifer recharge from Sand Hollow Reservoir. Groundwater discharge was simulated as well withdrawals, shallow drains at the base of reservoir dams, and seepage to the Virgin River. During calibration, variables were adjusted within probable ranges to minimize differences among model-simulated and observed water levels, groundwater travel times, drain discharges, and monthly estimated reservoir recharge.
Computer simulation of reservoir depletion and oil flow from the Macondo well following the Deepwater Horizon blowout

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hsieh, Paul

2010-01-01

This report describes the application of a computer model to simulate reservoir depletion and oil flow from the Macondo well following the Deepwater Horizon blowout. Reservoir and fluid data used for model development are based on (1) information released in BP's investigation report of the incident, (2) information provided by BP personnel during meetings in Houston, Texas, and (3) calibration by history matching to shut-in pressures measured in the capping stack during the Well Integrity Test. The model is able to closely match the measured shut-in pressures. In the simulation of the 86-day period from the blowout to shut in, the simulated reservoir pressure at the well face declines from the initial reservoir pressure of 11,850 pounds per square inch (psi) to 9,400 psi. After shut in, the simulated reservoir pressure recovers to a final value of 10,300 psi. The pressure does not recover back to the initial pressure owing to reservoir depletion caused by 86 days of oil discharge. The simulated oil flow rate declines from 63,600 stock tank barrels per day just after the Deepwater Horizon blowout to 52,600 stock tank barrels per day just prior to shut in. The simulated total volume of oil discharged is 4.92 million stock tank barrels. The overall uncertainty in the simulated flow rates and total volume of oil discharged is estimated to be + or - 10 percent.
Integrated Reflection Seismic Monitoring and Reservoir Modeling for Geologic CO2 Sequestration

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

John Rogers

The US DOE/NETL CCS MVA program funded a project with Fusion Petroleum Technologies Inc. (now SIGMA) to model the proof of concept of using sparse seismic data in the monitoring of CO{sub 2} injected into saline aquifers. The goal of the project was to develop and demonstrate an active source reflection seismic imaging strategy based on deployment of spatially sparse surface seismic arrays. The primary objective was to test the feasibility of sparse seismic array systems to monitor the CO{sub 2} plume migration injected into deep saline aquifers. The USDOE/RMOTC Teapot Dome (Wyoming) 3D seismic and reservoir data targeting themore » Crow Mountain formation was used as a realistic proxy to evaluate the feasibility of the proposed methodology. Though the RMOTC field has been well studied, the Crow Mountain as a saline aquifer has not been studied previously as a CO{sub 2} sequestration (storage) candidate reservoir. A full reprocessing of the seismic data from field tapes that included prestack time migration (PSTM) followed by prestack depth migration (PSDM) was performed. A baseline reservoir model was generated from the new imaging results that characterized the faults and horizon surfaces of the Crow Mountain reservoir. The 3D interpretation was integrated with the petrophysical data from available wells and incorporated into a geocellular model. The reservoir structure used in the geocellular model was developed using advanced inversion technologies including Fusion's ThinMAN{trademark} broadband spectral inversion. Seal failure risk was assessed using Fusion's proprietary GEOPRESS{trademark} pore pressure and fracture pressure prediction technology. CO{sub 2} injection was simulated into the Crow Mountain with a commercial reservoir simulator. Approximately 1.2MM tons of CO{sub 2} was simulated to be injected into the Crow Mountain reservoir over 30 years and subsequently let 'soak' in the reservoir for 970 years. The relatively small plume developed from this injection was observed migrating due to gravity to the apexes of the double anticline in the Crow Mountain reservoir of the Teapot dome. Four models were generated from the reservoir simulation task of the project which included three saturation models representing snapshots at different times during and after simulated CO{sub 2} injection and a fully saturated CO{sub 2} fluid substitution model. The saturation models were used along with a Gassmann fluid substitution model for CO{sub 2} to perform fluid volumetric substitution in the Crow Mountain formation. The fluid substitution resulted in a velocity and density model for the 3D volume at each saturation condition that was used to generate a synthetic seismic survey. FPTI's (Fusion Petroleum Technologies Inc.) proprietary SeisModelPRO{trademark} full acoustic wave equation software was used to simulate acquisition of a 3D seismic survey on the four models over a subset of the field area. The simulated acquisition area included the injection wells and the majority of the simulated plume area.« less
Modeling white sturgeon movement in a reservoir: The effect of water quality and sturgeon density

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sullivan, A.B.; Jager, H.I.; Myers, R.

2003-01-01

We developed a movement model to examine the distribution and survival of white sturgeon (Acipenser transmontanus) in a reservoir subject to large spatial and temporal variation in dissolved oxygen and temperature. Temperature and dissolved oxygen were simulated by a CE-QUAL-W2 model of Brownlee Reservoir, Idaho for a typical wet, normal, and dry hydrologic year. We compared current water quality conditions to scenarios with reduced nutrient inputs to the reservoir. White sturgeon habitat quality was modeled as a function of temperature, dissolved oxygen and, in some cases, suitability for foraging and depth. We assigned a quality index to each cell along the bottom of the reservoir. The model simulated two aspects of daily movement. Advective movement simulated the tendency for animals to move toward areas with high habitat quality, and diffusion simulated density dependent movement away from areas with high sturgeon density in areas with non-lethal habitat conditions. Mortality resulted when sturgeon were unable to leave areas with lethal temperature or dissolved oxygen conditions. Water quality was highest in winter and early spring and lowest in mid to late summer. Limiting nutrient inputs reduced the area of Brownlee Reservoir with lethal conditions for sturgeon and raised the average habitat suitability throughout the reservoir. Without movement, simulated white sturgeon survival ranged between 45 and 89%. Allowing movement raised the predicted survival of sturgeon under all conditions to above 90% as sturgeon avoided areas with low habitat quality. ?? 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Regional long-term production modeling from a single well test, Mount Elbert Gas Hydrate Stratigraphic Test Well, Alaska North Slope

USGS Publications Warehouse

Anderson, B.J.; Kurihara, M.; White, M.D.; Moridis, G.J.; Wilson, S.J.; Pooladi-Darvish, M.; Gaddipati, M.; Masuda, Y.; Collett, T.S.; Hunter, R.B.; Narita, H.; Rose, K.; Boswell, R.

2011-01-01

Following the results from the open-hole formation pressure response test in the BPXA-DOE-USGS Mount Elbert Gas Hydrate Stratigraphic Test Well (Mount Elbert well) using Schlumberger's Modular Dynamics Formation Tester (MDT) wireline tool, the International Methane Hydrate Reservoir Simulator Code Comparison project performed long-term reservoir simulations on three different model reservoirs. These descriptions were based on 1) the Mount Elbert gas hydrate accumulation as delineated by an extensive history-matching exercise, 2) an estimation of the hydrate accumulation near the Prudhoe Bay L-pad, and 3) a reservoir that would be down-dip of the Prudhoe Bay L-pad and therefore warmer and deeper. All of these simulations were based, in part, on the results of the MDT results from the Mount Elbert Well. The comparison group's consensus value for the initial permeability of the hydrate-filled reservoir (k = 0.12 mD) and the permeability model based on the MDT history match were used as the basis for subsequent simulations on the three regional scenarios. The simulation results of the five different simulation codes, CMG STARS, HydrateResSim, MH-21 HYDRES, STOMP-HYD, and TOUGH+HYDRATE exhibit good qualitative agreement and the variability of potential methane production rates from gas hydrate reservoirs is illustrated. As expected, the predicted methane production rate increased with increasing in situ reservoir temperature; however, a significant delay in the onset of rapid hydrate dissociation is observed for a cold, homogeneous reservoir and it is found to be repeatable. The inclusion of reservoir heterogeneity in the description of this cold reservoir is shown to eliminate this delayed production. Overall, simulations utilized detailed information collected across the Mount Elbert reservoir either obtained or determined from geophysical well logs, including thickness (37 ft), porosity (35%), hydrate saturation (65%), intrinsic permeability (1000 mD), pore water salinity (5 ppt), and formation temperature (3.3-3.9 ??C). This paper presents the approach and results of extrapolating regional forward production modeling from history-matching efforts on the results from a single well test. ?? 2010 Elsevier Ltd.
Regional long-term production modeling from a single well test, Mount Elbert Gas Hydrate Stratigraphic Test Well, Alaska North Slope

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Anderson, Brian J.; Kurihara, Masanori; White, Mark D.

2011-02-01

Following the results from the open-hole formation pressure response test in the BPXA-DOE-USGS Mount Elbert Gas Hydrate Stratigraphic Test Well (Mount Elbert well) using Schlumberger's Modular Dynamics Formation Tester (MDT) wireline tool, the International Methane Hydrate Reservoir Simulator Code Comparison project performed long-term reservoir simulations on three different model reservoirs. These descriptions were based on 1) the Mount Elbert gas hydrate accumulation as delineated by an extensive history-matching exercise, 2) an estimation of the hydrate accumulation near the Prudhoe Bay L-pad, and 3) a reservoir that would be down-dip of the Prudhoe Bay L-pad and therefore warmer and deeper. Allmore » of these simulations were based, in part, on the results of the MDT results from the Mount Elbert Well. The comparison group's consensus value for the initial permeability of the hydrate-filled reservoir (k = 0.12 mD) and the permeability model based on the MDT history match were used as the basis for subsequent simulations on the three regional scenarios. The simulation results of the five different simulation codes, CMG STARS, HydrateResSim, MH-21 HYDRES, STOMP-HYD, and TOUGH+HYDRATE exhibit good qualitative agreement and the variability of potential methane production rates from gas hydrate reservoirs is illustrated. As expected, the predicted methane production rate increased with increasing in situ reservoir temperature; however, a significant delay in the onset of rapid hydrate dissociation is observed for a cold, homogeneous reservoir and it is found to be repeatable. The inclusion of reservoir heterogeneity in the description of this cold reservoir is shown to eliminate this delayed production. Overall, simulations utilized detailed information collected across the Mount Elbert reservoir either obtained or determined from geophysical well logs, including thickness (37 ft), porosity (35%), hydrate saturation (65%), intrinsic permeability (1000 mD), pore water salinity (5 ppt), and formation temperature (3.3–3.9 °C). Finally, this paper presents the approach and results of extrapolating regional forward production modeling from history-matching efforts on the results from a single well test.« less
A FRAMEWORK TO DESIGN AND OPTIMIZE CHEMICAL FLOODING PROCESSES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mojdeh Delshad; Gary A. Pope; Kamy Sepehrnoori

2005-07-01

The goal of this proposed research is to provide an efficient and user friendly simulation framework for screening and optimizing chemical/microbial enhanced oil recovery processes. The framework will include (1) a user friendly interface to identify the variables that have the most impact on oil recovery using the concept of experimental design and response surface maps, (2) UTCHEM reservoir simulator to perform the numerical simulations, and (3) an economic model that automatically imports the simulation production data to evaluate the profitability of a particular design. Such a reservoir simulation framework is not currently available to the oil industry. The objectivesmore » of Task 1 are to develop three primary modules representing reservoir, chemical, and well data. The modules will be interfaced with an already available experimental design model. The objective of the Task 2 is to incorporate UTCHEM reservoir simulator and the modules with the strategic variables and developing the response surface maps to identify the significant variables from each module. The objective of the Task 3 is to develop the economic model designed specifically for the chemical processes targeted in this proposal and interface the economic model with UTCHEM production output. Task 4 is on the validation of the framework and performing simulations of oil reservoirs to screen, design and optimize the chemical processes.« less
A Framework to Design and Optimize Chemical Flooding Processes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mojdeh Delshad; Gary A. Pope; Kamy Sepehrnoori

2006-08-31

The goal of this proposed research is to provide an efficient and user friendly simulation framework for screening and optimizing chemical/microbial enhanced oil recovery processes. The framework will include (1) a user friendly interface to identify the variables that have the most impact on oil recovery using the concept of experimental design and response surface maps, (2) UTCHEM reservoir simulator to perform the numerical simulations, and (3) an economic model that automatically imports the simulation production data to evaluate the profitability of a particular design. Such a reservoir simulation framework is not currently available to the oil industry. The objectivesmore » of Task 1 are to develop three primary modules representing reservoir, chemical, and well data. The modules will be interfaced with an already available experimental design model. The objective of the Task 2 is to incorporate UTCHEM reservoir simulator and the modules with the strategic variables and developing the response surface maps to identify the significant variables from each module. The objective of the Task 3 is to develop the economic model designed specifically for the chemical processes targeted in this proposal and interface the economic model with UTCHEM production output. Task 4 is on the validation of the framework and performing simulations of oil reservoirs to screen, design and optimize the chemical processes.« less
A FRAMEWORK TO DESIGN AND OPTIMIZE CHEMICAL FLOODING PROCESSES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mojdeh Delshad; Gary A. Pope; Kamy Sepehrnoori

2004-11-01

The goal of this proposed research is to provide an efficient and user friendly simulation framework for screening and optimizing chemical/microbial enhanced oil recovery processes. The framework will include (1) a user friendly interface to identify the variables that have the most impact on oil recovery using the concept of experimental design and response surface maps, (2) UTCHEM reservoir simulator to perform the numerical simulations, and (3) an economic model that automatically imports the simulation production data to evaluate the profitability of a particular design. Such a reservoir simulation framework is not currently available to the oil industry. The objectivesmore » of Task 1 are to develop three primary modules representing reservoir, chemical, and well data. The modules will be interfaced with an already available experimental design model. The objective of the Task 2 is to incorporate UTCHEM reservoir simulator and the modules with the strategic variables and developing the response surface maps to identify the significant variables from each module. The objective of the Task 3 is to develop the economic model designed specifically for the chemical processes targeted in this proposal and interface the economic model with UTCHEM production output. Task 4 is on the validation of the framework and performing simulations of oil reservoirs to screen, design and optimize the chemical processes.« less
Ground-Water Contributions to Reservoir Storage and the Effect on Estimates of Firm Yield for Reservoirs in Massachusetts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Archfield, Stacey A.; Carlson, Carl S.

2006-01-01

Potential ground-water contributions to reservoir storage were determined for nine reservoirs in Massachusetts that had shorelines in contact with sand and gravel aquifers. The effect of ground water on firm yield was not only substantial, but furthermore, the firm yield of a reservoir in contact with a sand and gravel aquifer was always greater when the ground-water contribution was included in the water balance. Increases in firm yield ranged from 2 to 113 percent, with a median increase in firm yield of 10 percent. Additionally, the increase in firm yield in two reservoirs was greater than 85 percent. This study identified a set of equations that are based on an analytical solution to the ground-water-flow equation for the case of one-dimensional flow in a finite-width aquifer bounded by a linear surface-water feature such as a stream. These equations, which require only five input variables, were incorporated into an existing firm-yield-estimator (FYE) model, and the potential effect of ground water on firm yield was evaluated. To apply the FYE model to a reservoir in Massachusetts, the model requires that the drainage area to the reservoir be clearly defined and that some surface water flows into the reservoir. For surface-water-body shapes having a more realistic representation of a reservoir shoreline than a stream, a comparison of ground-water-flow rates simulated by the ground-water equations with flow rates simulated by a two-dimensional, finite-difference ground-water-flow model indicate that the agreement between the simulated flow rates is within ?10 percent when the ratio of the distance from the reservoir shoreline to the aquifer boundary to the length of shoreline in contact with the aquifer is between values of 0.5 and 3.5. Idealized reservoir-aquifer systems were assumed to verify that the ground-water-flow equations were implemented correctly into the existing FYE model; however, the modified FYE model has not been validated through a comparison of simulated and observed data. A comparison of simulated and observed reservoir water levels would further define limitations to the applicability of the ground-water-flow equations to reservoirs in Massachusetts whose shorelines are in contact with a sand and gravel aquifer.
Modeling dolomitized carbonate-ramp reservoirs: A case study of the Seminole San Andres unit. Part 2 -- Seismic modeling, reservoir geostatistics, and reservoir simulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, F.P.; Dai, J.; Kerans, C.

1998-11-01

In part 1 of this paper, the authors discussed the rock-fabric/petrophysical classes for dolomitized carbonate-ramp rocks, the effects of rock fabric and pore type on petrophysical properties, petrophysical models for analyzing wireline logs, the critical scales for defining geologic framework, and 3-D geologic modeling. Part 2 focuses on geophysical and engineering characterizations, including seismic modeling, reservoir geostatistics, stochastic modeling, and reservoir simulation. Synthetic seismograms of 30 to 200 Hz were generated to study the level of seismic resolution required to capture the high-frequency geologic features in dolomitized carbonate-ramp reservoirs. Outcrop data were collected to investigate effects of sampling interval andmore » scale-up of block size on geostatistical parameters. Semivariogram analysis of outcrop data showed that the sill of log permeability decreases and the correlation length increases with an increase of horizontal block size. Permeability models were generated using conventional linear interpolation, stochastic realizations without stratigraphic constraints, and stochastic realizations with stratigraphic constraints. Simulations of a fine-scale Lawyer Canyon outcrop model were used to study the factors affecting waterflooding performance. Simulation results show that waterflooding performance depends strongly on the geometry and stacking pattern of the rock-fabric units and on the location of production and injection wells.« less
Sedimentary Geothermal Feasibility Study: October 2016

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Augustine, Chad; Zerpa, Luis

The objective of this project is to analyze the feasibility of commercial geothermal projects using numerical reservoir simulation, considering a sedimentary reservoir with low permeability that requires productivity enhancement. A commercial thermal reservoir simulator (STARS, from Computer Modeling Group, CMG) is used in this work for numerical modeling. In the first stage of this project (FY14), a hypothetical numerical reservoir model was developed, and validated against an analytical solution. The following model parameters were considered to obtain an acceptable match between the numerical and analytical solutions: grid block size, time step and reservoir areal dimensions; the latter related to boundarymore » effects on the numerical solution. Systematic model runs showed that insufficient grid sizing generates numerical dispersion that causes the numerical model to underestimate the thermal breakthrough time compared to the analytic model. As grid sizing is decreased, the model results converge on a solution. Likewise, insufficient reservoir model area introduces boundary effects in the numerical solution that cause the model results to differ from the analytical solution.« less
Quantification of a maximum injection volume of CO2 to avert geomechanical perturbations using a compositional fluid flow reservoir simulator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jung, Hojung; Singh, Gurpreet; Espinoza, D. Nicolas; Wheeler, Mary F.

2018-02-01

Subsurface CO2 injection and storage alters formation pressure. Changes of pore pressure may result in fault reactivation and hydraulic fracturing if the pressure exceeds the corresponding thresholds. Most simulation models predict such thresholds utilizing relatively homogeneous reservoir rock models and do not account for CO2 dissolution in the brine phase to calculate pore pressure evolution. This study presents an estimation of reservoir capacity in terms of allowable injection volume and rate utilizing the Frio CO2 injection site in the coast of the Gulf of Mexico as a case study. The work includes laboratory core testing, well-logging data analyses, and reservoir numerical simulation. We built a fine-scale reservoir model of the Frio pilot test in our in-house reservoir simulator IPARS (Integrated Parallel Accurate Reservoir Simulator). We first performed history matching of the pressure transient data of the Frio pilot test, and then used this history-matched reservoir model to investigate the effect of the CO2 dissolution into brine and predict the implications of larger CO2 injection volumes. Our simulation results -including CO2 dissolution- exhibited 33% lower pressure build-up relative to the simulation excluding dissolution. Capillary heterogeneity helps spread the CO2 plume and facilitate early breakthrough. Formation expansivity helps alleviate pore pressure build-up. Simulation results suggest that the injection schedule adopted during the actual pilot test very likely did not affect the mechanical integrity of the storage complex. Fault reactivation requires injection volumes of at least about sixty times larger than the actual injected volume at the same injection rate. Hydraulic fracturing necessitates much larger injection rates than the ones used in the Frio pilot test. Tested rock samples exhibit ductile deformation at in-situ effective stresses. Hence, we do not expect an increase of fault permeability in the Frio sand even in the presence of fault reactivation.
Water, Energy, and Biogeochemical Model (WEBMOD), user’s manual, version 1

USGS Publications Warehouse

Webb, Richard M.T.; Parkhurst, David L.

2017-02-08

The Water, Energy, and Biogeochemical Model (WEBMOD) uses the framework of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Modular Modeling System to simulate fluxes of water and solutes through watersheds. WEBMOD divides watersheds into model response units (MRU) where fluxes and reactions are simulated for the following eight hillslope reservoir types: canopy; snowpack; ponding on impervious surfaces; O-horizon; two reservoirs in the unsaturated zone, which represent preferential flow and matrix flow; and two reservoirs in the saturated zone, which also represent preferential flow and matrix flow. The reservoir representing ponding on impervious surfaces, currently not functional (2016), will be implemented once the model is applied to urban areas. MRUs discharge to one or more stream reservoirs that flow to the outlet of the watershed. Hydrologic fluxes in the watershed are simulated by modules derived from the USGS Precipitation Runoff Modeling System; the National Weather Service Hydro-17 snow model; and a topography-driven hydrologic model (TOPMODEL). Modifications to the standard TOPMODEL include the addition of heterogeneous vertical infiltration rates; irrigation; lateral and vertical preferential flows through the unsaturated zone; pipe flow draining the saturated zone; gains and losses to regional aquifer systems; and the option to simulate baseflow discharge by using an exponential, parabolic, or linear decrease in transmissivity. PHREEQC, an aqueous geochemical model, is incorporated to simulate chemical reactions as waters evaporate, mix, and react within the various reservoirs of the model. The reactions that can be specified for a reservoir include equilibrium reactions among water; minerals; surfaces; exchangers; and kinetic reactions such as kinetic mineral dissolution or precipitation, biologically mediated reactions, and radioactive decay. WEBMOD also simulates variations in the concentrations of the stable isotopes deuterium and oxygen-18 as a result of varying inputs, mixing, and evaporation. This manual describes the WEBMOD input and output files, along with the algorithms and procedures used to simulate the hydrology and water quality in a watershed. Examples are presented that demonstrate hydrologic processes, weathering reactions, and isotopic evolution in an alpine watershed and the effect of irrigation on water flows and salinity in an intensively farmed agricultural area.
Calibration and use of an interactive-accounting model to simulate dissolved solids, streamflow, and water-supply operations in the Arkansas River basin, Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burns, A.W.

1989-01-01

An interactive-accounting model was used to simulate dissolved solids, streamflow, and water supply operations in the Arkansas River basin, Colorado. Model calibration of specific conductance to streamflow relations at three sites enabled computation of dissolved-solids loads throughout the basin. To simulate streamflow only, all water supply operations were incorporated in the regression relations for streamflow. Calibration for 1940-85 resulted in coefficients of determination that ranged from 0.89 to 0.58, and values in excess of 0.80 were determined for 16 of 20 nodes. The model then incorporated 74 water users and 11 reservoirs to simulate the water supply operations for two periods, 1943-74 and 1975-85. For the 1943-74 calibration, coefficients of determination for streamflow ranged from 0.87 to 0.02. Calibration of the water supply operations resulted in coefficients of determination that ranged from 0.87 to negative for simulated irrigation diversions of 37 selected water users. Calibration for 1975-85 was not evaluated statistically, but average values and plots of reservoir contents indicated reasonableness of the simulation. To demonstrate the utility of the model, six specific alternatives were simulated to consider effects of potential enlargement of Pueblo Reservoir. Three general major alternatives were simulated: the 1975-85 calibrated model data, the calibrated model data with an addition of 30 cu ft/sec in Fountain Creek flows, and the calibrated model data plus additional municipal water in storage. These three major alternatives considered the options of reservoir enlargement or no enlargement. A 40,000-acre-foot reservoir enlargement resulted in average increases of 2,500 acre-ft in transmountain diversions, of 800 acre-ft in storage diversions, and of 100 acre-ft in winter-water storage. (USGS)
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ernest A. Mancini

The University of Alabama in cooperation with Texas A&M University, McGill University, Longleaf Energy Group, Strago Petroleum Corporation, and Paramount Petroleum Company are undertaking an integrated, interdisciplinary geoscientific and engineering research project. The project is designed to characterize and model reservoir architecture, pore systems and rock-fluid interactions at the pore to field scale in Upper Jurassic Smackover reef and carbonate shoal reservoirs associated with varying degrees of relief on pre-Mesozoic basement paleohighs in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. The project effort includes the prediction of fluid flow in carbonate reservoirs through reservoir simulation modeling which utilizes geologic reservoir characterization andmore » modeling and the prediction of carbonate reservoir architecture, heterogeneity and quality through seismic imaging. The primary objective of the project is to increase the profitability, producibility and efficiency of recovery of oil from existing and undiscovered Upper Jurassic fields characterized by reef and carbonate shoals associated with pre-Mesozoic basement paleohighs. The principal research effort for Year 2 of the project has been reservoir characterization, 3-D modeling and technology transfer. This effort has included six tasks: (1) the study of rockfluid interactions, (2) petrophysical and engineering characterization, (3) data integration, (4) 3-D geologic modeling, (5) 3-D reservoir simulation and (6) technology transfer. This work was scheduled for completion in Year 2. Overall, the project work is on schedule. Geoscientific reservoir characterization is essentially completed. The architecture, porosity types and heterogeneity of the reef and shoal reservoirs at Appleton and Vocation Fields have been characterized using geological and geophysical data. The study of rock-fluid interactions is near completion. Observations regarding the diagenetic processes influencing pore system development and heterogeneity in these reef and shoal reservoirs have been made. Petrophysical and engineering property characterization has been essentially completed. Porosity and permeability data at Appleton and Vocation Fields have been analyzed, and well performance analysis has been conducted. Data integration is up to date, in that, the geological, geophysical, petrophysical and engineering data collected to date for Appleton and Vocation Fields have been compiled into a fieldwide digital database. 3-D geologic modeling of the structures and reservoirs at Appleton and Vocation Fields has been completed. The model represents an integration of geological, petrophysical and seismic data. 3-D reservoir simulation of the reservoirs at Appleton and Vocation Fields has been completed. The 3-D geologic model served as the framework for the simulations. A technology workshop on reservoir characterization and modeling at Appleton and Vocation Fields was conducted to transfer the results of the project to the petroleum industry.« less
One-dimensional simulation of stratification and dissolved oxygen in McCook Reservoir, Illinois

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robertson, Dale M.

2000-01-01

As part of the Chicagoland Underflow Plan/Tunnel and Reservoir Plan, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Chicago District, plans to build McCook Reservoir.a flood-control reservoir to store combined stormwater and raw sewage (combined sewage). To prevent the combined sewage in the reservoir from becoming anoxic and producing hydrogen sulfide gas, a coarse-bubble aeration system will be designed and installed on the basis of results from CUP 0-D, a zero-dimensional model, and MAC3D, a three-dimensional model. Two inherent assumptions in the application of MAC3D are that density stratification in the simulated water body is minimal or not present and that surface heat transfers are unimportant and, therefore, may be neglected. To test these assumptions, the previously tested, one-dimensional Dynamic Lake Model (DLM) was used to simulate changes in temperature and dissolved oxygen in the reservoir after a 1-in-100-year event. Results from model simulations indicate that the assumptions made in MAC3D application are valid as long as the aeration system, with an air-flow rate of 1.2 cubic meters per second or more, is operated while the combined sewage is stored in the reservoir. Results also indicate that the high biochemical oxygen demand of the combined sewage will quickly consume the dissolved oxygen stored in the reservoir and the dissolved oxygen transferred through the surface of the reservoir; therefore, oxygen must be supplied by either the rising bubbles of the aeration system (a process not incorporated in DLM) or some other technique to prevent anoxia.
Current Challenges in Geothermal Reservoir Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Driesner, T.

2016-12-01

Geothermal reservoir simulation has long been introduced as a valuable tool for geothermal reservoir management and research. Yet, the current generation of simulation tools faces a number of severe challenges, in particular in the application for novel types of geothermal resources such as supercritical reservoirs or hydraulic stimulation. This contribution reviews a number of key problems: Representing the magmatic heat source of high enthalpy resources in simulations. Current practice is representing the deeper parts of a high enthalpy reservoir by a heat flux or temperature boundary condition. While this is sufficient for many reservoir management purposes it precludes exploring the chances of very high enthalpy resources in the deepest parts of such systems as well as the development of reliable conceptual models. Recent 2D simulations with the CSMP++ simulation platform demonstrate the potential of explicitly including the heat source, namely for understanding supercritical resources. Geometrically realistic incorporation of discrete fracture networks in simulation. A growing number of simulation tools can, in principle, handle flow and heat transport in discrete fracture networks. However, solving the governing equations and representing the physical properties are often biased by introducing strongly simplifying assumptions. Including proper fracture mechanics in complex fracture network simulations remains an open challenge. Improvements of the simulating chemical fluid-rock interaction in geothermal reservoirs. Major improvements have been made towards more stable and faster numerical solvers for multicomponent chemical fluid rock interaction. However, the underlying thermodynamic models and databases are unable to correctly address a number of important regions in temperature-pressure-composition parameter space. Namely, there is currently no thermodynamic formalism to describe relevant chemical reactions in supercritical reservoirs. Overcoming this unsatisfactory situation requires fundamental research in high temperature physical chemistry rather than further numerical development.
Refinement and evaluation of the Massachusetts firm-yield estimator model version 2.0

USGS Publications Warehouse

Levin, Sara B.; Archfield, Stacey A.; Massey, Andrew J.

2011-01-01

The firm yield is the maximum average daily withdrawal that can be extracted from a reservoir without risk of failure during an extended drought period. Previously developed procedures for determining the firm yield of a reservoir were refined and applied to 38 reservoir systems in Massachusetts, including 25 single- and multiple-reservoir systems that were examined during previous studies and 13 additional reservoir systems. Changes to the firm-yield model include refinements to the simulation methods and input data, as well as the addition of several scenario-testing capabilities. The simulation procedure was adapted to run at a daily time step over a 44-year simulation period, and daily streamflow and meteorological data were compiled for all the reservoirs for input to the model. Another change to the model-simulation methods is the adjustment of the scaling factor used in estimating groundwater contributions to the reservoir. The scaling factor is used to convert the daily groundwater-flow rate into a volume by multiplying the rate by the length of reservoir shoreline that is hydrologically connected to the aquifer. Previous firm-yield analyses used a constant scaling factor that was estimated from the reservoir surface area at full pool. The use of a constant scaling factor caused groundwater flows during periods when the reservoir stage was very low to be overestimated. The constant groundwater scaling factor used in previous analyses was replaced with a variable scaling factor that is based on daily reservoir stage. This change reduced instability in the groundwater-flow algorithms and produced more realistic groundwater-flow contributions during periods of low storage. Uncertainty in the firm-yield model arises from many sources, including errors in input data. The sensitivity of the model to uncertainty in streamflow input data and uncertainty in the stage-storage relation was examined. A series of Monte Carlo simulations were performed on 22 reservoirs to assess the sensitivity of firm-yield estimates to errors in daily-streamflow input data. Results of the Monte Carlo simulations indicate that underestimation in the lowest stream inflows can cause firm yields to be underestimated by an average of 1 to 10 percent. Errors in the stage-storage relation can arise when the point density of bathymetric survey measurements is too low. Existing bathymetric surfaces were resampled using hypothetical transects of varying patterns and point densities in order to quantify the uncertainty in stage-storage relations. Reservoir-volume calculations and resulting firm yields were accurate to within 5 percent when point densities were greater than 20 points per acre of reservoir surface. Methods for incorporating summer water-demand-reduction scenarios into the firm-yield model were developed as well as the ability to relax the no-fail reliability criterion. Although the original firm-yield model allowed monthly reservoir releases to be specified, there have been no previous studies examining the feasibility of controlled releases for downstream flows from Massachusetts reservoirs. Two controlled-release scenarios were tested—with and without a summer water-demand-reduction scenario—for a scenario with a no-fail criterion and a scenario that allows for a 1-percent failure rate over the entire simulation period. Based on these scenarios, about one-third of the reservoir systems were able to support the flow-release scenarios at their 2000–2004 usage rates. Reservoirs with higher storage ratios (reservoir storage capacity to mean annual streamflow) and lower demand ratios (mean annual water demand to annual firm yield) were capable of higher downstream release rates. For the purposes of this research, all reservoir systems were assumed to have structures which enable controlled releases, although this assumption may not be true for many of the reservoirs studied.
River and Reservoir Operations Model, Truckee River basin, California and Nevada, 1998

USGS Publications Warehouse

Berris, Steven N.; Hess, Glen W.; Bohman, Larry R.

2001-01-01

The demand for all uses of water in the Truckee River Basin, California and Nevada, commonly is greater than can be supplied. Storage reservoirs in the system have a maximum effective total capacity equivalent to less than two years of average river flows, so longer-term droughts can result in substantial water-supply shortages for irrigation and municipal users and may stress fish and wildlife ecosystems. Title II of Public Law (P.L.) 101-618, the Truckee?Carson?Pyramid Lake Water Rights Settlement Act of 1990, provides a foundation for negotiating and developing operating criteria, known as the Truckee River Operating Agreement (TROA), to balance interstate and interbasin allocation of water rights among the many interests competing for water from the Truckee River. In addition to TROA, the Truckee River Water Quality Settlement Agreement (WQSA), signed in 1996, provides for acquisition of water rights to resolve water-quality problems during low flows along the Truckee River in Nevada. Efficient execution of many of the planning, management, or environmental assessment requirements of TROA and WQSA will require detailed water-resources data coupled with sound analytical tools. Analytical modeling tools constructed and evaluated with such data could help assess effects of alternative operational scenarios related to reservoir and river operations, water-rights transfers, and changes in irrigation practices. The Truckee?Carson Program of the U.S. Geological Survey, to support U.S. Department of the Interior implementation of P.L. 101-618, is developing a modeling system to support efficient water-resources planning, management, and allocation. The daily operations model documented herein is a part of the modeling system that includes a database management program, a graphical user interface program, and a program with modules that simulate river/reservoir operations and a variety of hydrologic processes. The operations module is capable of simulating lake/ reservoir and river operations including diversion of Truckee River water to the Truckee Canal for transport to the Carson River Basin. In addition to the operations and streamflow-routing modules, the modeling system is structured to allow integration of other modules, such as water-quality and precipitation-runoff modules. The USGS Truckee River Basin operations model was designed to provide simulations that allow comparison of the effects of alternative management practices or allocations on streamflow or reservoir storages in the Truckee River Basin over long periods of time. Because the model was not intended to reproduce historical streamflow or reservoir storage values, a traditional calibration that includes statistical comparisons of observed and simulated values would be problematic with this model and database. This report describes a chronology and background of decrees, agreements, and laws that affect Truckee River operational practices; the construction of the Truckee River daily operations model; the simulation of Truckee River Basin operations, both current and proposed under the draft TROA and WQSA; and suggested model improvements and limitations. The daily operations model uses Hydrological Simulation Program?FORTRAN (HSPF) to simulate flow-routing and reservoir and river operations. The operations model simulates reservoir and river operations that govern streamflow in the Truckee River from Lake Tahoe to Pyramid Lake, including diversions through the Truckee Canal to Lahontan Reservoir in the Carson River Basin. A general overview is provided of daily operations and their simulation. Supplemental information that documents the extremely complex operating rules simulated by the model is available.

Geomechanical modeling of reservoir compaction, surface subsidence, and casing damage at the Belridge diatomite field

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

FREDRICH,JOANNE T.; DEITRICK,G.L.; ARGUELLO JR.,JOSE G.

2000-05-01

Geologic, and historical well failure, production, and injection data were analyzed to guide development of three-dimensional geomechanical models of the Belridge diatomite field, California. The central premise of the numerical simulations is that spatial gradients in pore pressure induced by production and injection in a low permeability reservoir may perturb the local stresses and cause subsurface deformation sufficient to result in well failure. Time-dependent reservoir pressure fields that were calculated from three-dimensional black oil reservoir simulations were coupled uni-directionally to three-dimensional non-linear finite element geomechanical simulations. The reservoir models included nearly 100,000 gridblocks (100--200 wells), and covered nearly 20 yearsmore » of production and injection. The geomechanical models were meshed from structure maps and contained more than 300,000 nodal points. Shear strain localization along weak bedding planes that causes casing dog-legs in the field was accommodated in the model by contact surfaces located immediately above the reservoir and at two locations in the overburden. The geomechanical simulations are validated by comparison of the predicted surface subsidence with field measurements, and by comparison of predicted deformation with observed casing damage. Additionally, simulations performed for two independently developed areas at South Belridge, Sections 33 and 29, corroborate their different well failure histories. The simulations suggest the three types of casing damage observed, and show that although water injection has mitigated surface subsidence, it can, under some circumstances, increase the lateral gradients in effective stress, that in turn can accelerate subsurface horizontal motions. Geomechanical simulation is an important reservoir management tool that can be used to identify optimal operating policies to mitigate casing damage for existing field developments, and applied to incorporate the effect of well failure potential in economic analyses of alternative infilling and development options.« less
Preliminary Three-Dimensional Simulation of Sediment and Cesium Transport in the Ogi Dam Reservoir using FLESCOT – Task 6, Subtask 2

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Onishi, Yasuo; Kurikami, Hiroshi; Yokuda, Satoru T.

2014-03-28

After the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant in March 2011, the Japan Atomic Energy Agency and the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory initiated a collaborative project on environmental restoration. In October 2013, the collaborative team started a task of three-dimensional modeling of sediment and cesium transport in the Fukushima environment using the FLESCOT (Flow, Energy, Salinity, Sediment Contaminant Transport) code. As the first trial, we applied it to the Ogi Dam Reservoir that is one of the reservoirs in the Japan Atomic Energy Agency’s (JAEA’s) investigation project. Three simulation cases under the following different temperature conditions were studied:more » • incoming rivers and the Ogi Dam Reservoir have the same water temperature • incoming rivers have lower water temperature than that of the reservoir • incoming rivers have higher water temperature than that of the reservoir. The preliminary simulations suggest that seasonal temperature changes influence the sediment and cesium transport. The preliminary results showed the following: • Suspended sand, and cesium adsorbed by sand, coming into the reservoirs from upstream rivers is deposited near the reservoir entrance. • Suspended silt, and cesium adsorbed by silt, is deposited farther in the reservoir. • Suspended clay, and cesium adsorbed by clay, travels the farthest into the reservoir. With sufficient time, the dissolved cesium reaches the downstream end of the reservoir. This preliminary modeling also suggests the possibility of a suitable dam operation to control the cesium migration farther downstream from the dam. JAEA has been sampling in the Ogi Dam Reservoir, but these data were not yet available for the current model calibration and validation for this reservoir. Nonetheless these preliminary FLESCOT modeling results were qualitatively valid and confirmed the applicability of the FLESCOT code to the Ogi Dam Reservoir, and in general to other reservoirs in the Fukushima environment. The issues to be addressed in future are the following: • Validate the simulation results by comparison with the investigation data. • Confirm the applicability of the FLESCOT code to Fukushima coastal areas. • Increase computation speed by parallelizing the FLESCOT code.« less
Feasibility Assessment of CO2 Sequestration and Enhanced Recovery in Gas Shale Reservoirs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vermylen, J. P.; Hagin, P. N.; Zoback, M. D.

2008-12-01

CO2 sequestration and enhanced methane recovery may be feasible in unconventional, organic-rich, gas shale reservoirs in which the methane is stored as an adsorbed phase. Previous studies have shown that organic-rich, Appalachian Devonian shales adsorb approximately five times more carbon dioxide than methane at reservoir conditions. However, the enhanced recovery and sequestration concept has not yet been tested for gas shale reservoirs under realistic flow and production conditions. Using the lessons learned from previous studies on enhanced coalbed methane (ECBM) as a starting point, we are conducting laboratory experiments, reservoir modeling, and fluid flow simulations to test the feasibility of sequestration and enhanced recovery in gas shales. Our laboratory work investigates both adsorption and mechanical properties of shale samples to use as inputs for fluid flow simulation. Static and dynamic mechanical properties of shale samples are measured using a triaxial press under realistic reservoir conditions with varying gas saturations and compositions. Adsorption is simultaneously measured using standard, static, volumetric techniques. Permeability is measured using pulse decay methods calibrated to standard Darcy flow measurements. Fluid flow simulations are conducted using the reservoir simulator GEM that has successfully modeled enhanced recovery in coal. The results of the flow simulation are combined with the laboratory results to determine if enhanced recovery and CO2 sequestration is feasible in gas shale reservoirs.
Analysis of formation pressure test results in the Mount Elbert methane hydrate reservoir through numerical simulation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kurihara, M.; Sato, A.; Funatsu, K.; Ouchi, H.; Masuda, Y.; Narita, H.; Collett, T.S.

2011-01-01

Targeting the methane hydrate (MH) bearing units C and D at the Mount Elbert prospect on the Alaska North Slope, four MDT (Modular Dynamic Formation Tester) tests were conducted in February 2007. The C2 MDT test was selected for history matching simulation in the MH Simulator Code Comparison Study. Through history matching simulation, the physical and chemical properties of the unit C were adjusted, which suggested the most likely reservoir properties of this unit. Based on these properties thus tuned, the numerical models replicating "Mount Elbert C2 zone like reservoir" "PBU L-Pad like reservoir" and "PBU L-Pad down dip like reservoir" were constructed. The long term production performances of wells in these reservoirs were then forecasted assuming the MH dissociation and production by the methods of depressurization, combination of depressurization and wellbore heating, and hot water huff and puff. The predicted cumulative gas production ranges from 2.16??106m3/well to 8.22??108m3/well depending mainly on the initial temperature of the reservoir and on the production method.This paper describes the details of modeling and history matching simulation. This paper also presents the results of the examinations on the effects of reservoir properties on MH dissociation and production performances under the application of the depressurization and thermal methods. ?? 2010 Elsevier Ltd.
Water-balance simulations of runoff and reservoir storage for the Upper Helmand watershed and Kajakai Reservoir, central Afghanistan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vining, Kevin C.; Vecchia, Aldo V.

2007-01-01

A study was performed to provide information on monthly historical and hypothetical future runoff for the Upper Helmand watershed and reservoir storage in Kajakai Reservoir that could be used by Afghanistan authorities to make economic and demographic decisions concerning reservoir design and operation, reservoir sedimentation, and development along the Helmand River. Estimated reservoir volume at the current spillway elevation of 1,033.5 meters decreased by about 365 million cubic meters from 1968 to 2006 because of sedimentation. Water-balance simulations indicated a good fit between modeled and recorded monthly runoff at the two gaging stations in the watershed for water years 1956-79 and indicated an excellent fit between modeled and recorded monthly changes in Kajakai Reservoir storage for water years 1956-79. Future simulations, which included low starting reservoir water levels and a spillway raised to an elevation of 1,045 meters, indicated that the reservoir is likely to fill within 2 years. Although Kajakai Reservoir is likely to fill quickly, multiyear deficits may still occur. If future downstream irrigation demand doubles but future precipitation, temperature, and reservoir sedimentation remain similar to historical conditions, the reservoir would have more than a 50-percent chance of being full during April or May of a typical year. Future simulations with a 10-percent reduction in precipitation indicated that supply deficits would occur more than 1 in 4 years, on average, during August, September, or October. The reservoir would be full during April or May fewer than 1 in 2 years, on average, and multiyear supply deficits could occur. Increased sedimentation had little effect on reservoir levels during April through July, but the frequency of deficits increased substantially during September and October.
The aortic reservoir-wave as a paradigm for arterial haemodynamics: insights from three-dimensional fluid-structure interaction simulations in a model of aortic coarctation.

PubMed

Segers, Patrick; Taelman, Liesbeth; Degroote, Joris; Bols, Joris; Vierendeels, Jan

2015-03-01

The reservoir-wave paradigm considers aortic pressure as the superposition of a 'reservoir pressure', directly related to changes in reservoir volume, and an 'excess' component ascribed to wave dynamics. The change in reservoir pressure is assumed to be proportional to the difference between aortic inflow and outflow (i.e. aortic volume changes), an assumption that is virtually impossible to validate in vivo. The aim of this study is therefore to apply the reservoir-wave paradigm to aortic pressure and flow waves obtained from three-dimensional fluid-structure interaction simulations in a model of a normal aorta, aortic coarctation (narrowed descending aorta) and stented coarctation (stiff segment in descending aorta). We found no unequivocal relation between the intraaortic volume and the reservoir pressure for any of the simulated cases. When plotted in a pressure-volume diagram, hysteresis loops are found that are looped in a clockwise way indicating that the reservoir pressure is lower than the pressure associated with the change in volume. The reservoir-wave analysis leads to very high excess pressures, especially for the coarctation models, but to surprisingly little changes of the reservoir component despite the impediment of the buffer capacity of the aorta. With the observation that reservoir pressure is not related to the volume in the aortic reservoir in systole, an intrinsic assumption in the wave-reservoir concept is invalidated and, consequently, also the assumption that the excess pressure is the component of pressure that can be attributed to wave travel and reflection.
Representing Reservoir Stratification in Land Surface and Earth System Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yigzaw, W.; Li, H. Y.; Leung, L. R.; Hejazi, M. I.; Voisin, N.; Payn, R. A.; Demissie, Y.

2017-12-01

A one-dimensional reservoir stratification modeling has been developed as part of Model for Scale Adaptive River Transport (MOSART), which is the river transport model used in the Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME) and Community Earth System Model (CESM). Reservoirs play an important role in modulating the dynamic water, energy and biogeochemical cycles in the riverine system through nutrient sequestration and stratification. However, most earth system models include lake models that assume a simplified geometry featuring a constant depth and a constant surface area. As reservoir geometry has important effects on thermal stratification, we developed a new algorithm for deriving generic, stratified area-elevation-storage relationships that are applicable at regional and global scales using data from Global Reservoir and Dam database (GRanD). This new reservoir geometry dataset is then used to support the development of a reservoir stratification module within MOSART. The mixing of layers (energy and mass) in the reservoir is driven by eddy diffusion, vertical advection, and reservoir inflow and outflow. Upstream inflow into a reservoir is treated as an additional source/sink of energy, while downstream outflow represented a sink. Hourly atmospheric forcing from North American Land Assimilation System (NLDAS) Phase II and simulated daily runoff by ACME land component are used as inputs for the model over the contiguous United States for simulations between 2001-2010. The model is validated using selected observed temperature profile data in a number of reservoirs that are subject to various levels of regulation. The reservoir stratification module completes the representation of riverine mass and heat transfer in earth system models, which is a major step towards quantitative understanding of human influences on the terrestrial hydrological, ecological and biogeochemical cycles.
Supercomputing with TOUGH2 family codes for coupled multi-physics simulations of geologic carbon sequestration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamamoto, H.; Nakajima, K.; Zhang, K.; Nanai, S.

2015-12-01

Powerful numerical codes that are capable of modeling complex coupled processes of physics and chemistry have been developed for predicting the fate of CO2 in reservoirs as well as its potential impacts on groundwater and subsurface environments. However, they are often computationally demanding for solving highly non-linear models in sufficient spatial and temporal resolutions. Geological heterogeneity and uncertainties further increase the challenges in modeling works. Two-phase flow simulations in heterogeneous media usually require much longer computational time than that in homogeneous media. Uncertainties in reservoir properties may necessitate stochastic simulations with multiple realizations. Recently, massively parallel supercomputers with more than thousands of processors become available in scientific and engineering communities. Such supercomputers may attract attentions from geoscientist and reservoir engineers for solving the large and non-linear models in higher resolutions within a reasonable time. However, for making it a useful tool, it is essential to tackle several practical obstacles to utilize large number of processors effectively for general-purpose reservoir simulators. We have implemented massively-parallel versions of two TOUGH2 family codes (a multi-phase flow simulator TOUGH2 and a chemically reactive transport simulator TOUGHREACT) on two different types (vector- and scalar-type) of supercomputers with a thousand to tens of thousands of processors. After completing implementation and extensive tune-up on the supercomputers, the computational performance was measured for three simulations with multi-million grid models, including a simulation of the dissolution-diffusion-convection process that requires high spatial and temporal resolutions to simulate the growth of small convective fingers of CO2-dissolved water to larger ones in a reservoir scale. The performance measurement confirmed that the both simulators exhibit excellent scalabilities showing almost linear speedup against number of processors up to over ten thousand cores. Generally this allows us to perform coupled multi-physics (THC) simulations on high resolution geologic models with multi-million grid in a practical time (e.g., less than a second per time step).
Application of Discrete Fracture Modeling and Upscaling Techniques to Complex Fractured Reservoirs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karimi-Fard, M.; Lapene, A.; Pauget, L.

2012-12-01

During the last decade, an important effort has been made to improve data acquisition (seismic and borehole imaging) and workflow for reservoir characterization which has greatly benefited the description of fractured reservoirs. However, the geological models resulting from the interpretations need to be validated or calibrated against dynamic data. Flow modeling in fractured reservoirs remains a challenge due to the difficulty of representing mass transfers at different heterogeneity scales. The majority of the existing approaches are based on dual continuum representation where the fracture network and the matrix are represented separately and their interactions are modeled using transfer functions. These models are usually based on idealized representation of the fracture distribution which makes the integration of real data difficult. In recent years, due to increases in computer power, discrete fracture modeling techniques (DFM) are becoming popular. In these techniques the fractures are represented explicitly allowing the direct use of data. In this work we consider the DFM technique developed by Karimi-Fard et al. [1] which is based on an unstructured finite-volume discretization. The mass flux between two adjacent control-volumes is evaluated using an optimized two-point flux approximation. The result of the discretization is a list of control-volumes with the associated pore-volumes and positions, and a list of connections with the associated transmissibilities. Fracture intersections are simplified using a connectivity transformation which contributes considerably to the efficiency of the methodology. In addition, the method is designed for general purpose simulators and any connectivity based simulator can be used for flow simulations. The DFM technique is either used standalone or as part of an upscaling technique. The upscaling techniques are required for large reservoirs where the explicit representation of all fractures and faults is not possible. Karimi-Fard et al. [2] have developed an upscaling technique based on DFM representation. The original version of this technique was developed to construct a dual-porosity model from a discrete fracture description. This technique has been extended and generalized so it can be applied to a wide range of problems from reservoirs with a few or no fracture to highly fractured reservoirs. In this work, we present the application of these techniques to two three-dimensional fractured reservoirs constructed using real data. The first model contains more than 600 medium and large scale fractures. The fractures are not always connected which requires a general modeling technique. The reservoir has 50 wells (injectors and producers) and water flooding simulations are performed. The second test case is a larger reservoir with sparsely distributed faults. Single-phase simulations are performed with 5 producing wells. [1] Karimi-Fard M., Durlofsky L.J., and Aziz K. 2004. An efficient discrete-fracture model applicable for general-purpose reservoir simulators. SPE Journal, 9(2): 227-236. [2] Karimi-Fard M., Gong B., and Durlofsky L.J. 2006. Generation of coarse-scale continuum flow models from detailed fracture characterizations. Water Resources Research, 42(10): W10423.
Intergrated 3-D Ground-Penetrating Radar,Outcrop,and Boreholoe Data Applied to Reservoir Characterization and Flow Simulation.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McMechan et al.

2001-08-31

Existing reservoir models are based on 2-D outcrop;3-D aspects are inferred from correlation between wells,and so are inadequately constrained for reservoir simulations. To overcome these deficiencies, we initiated a multidimensional characterization of reservoir analogs in the Cretaceous Ferron Sandstone in Utah.The study was conducted at two sites(Corbula Gulch Coyote Basin); results from both sites are contained in this report. Detailed sedimentary facies maps of cliff faces define the geometry and distribution of potential reservoir flow units, barriers and baffles at the outcrop. High resolution 2-D and 3-D ground penetrating radar(GPR) images extend these reservoir characteristics into 3-D to allow developmentmore » of realistic 3-D reservoir models. Models use geometric information from the mapping and the GPR data, petrophysical data from surface and cliff-face outcrops, lab analyses of outcrop and core samples, and petrography. The measurements are all integrated into a single coordinate system using GPS and laser mapping of the main sedimentologic features and boundaries. The final step is analysis of results of 3-D fluid flow modeling to demonstrate applicability of our reservoir analog studies to well siting and reservoir engineering for maximization of hydrocarbon production. The main goals of this project are achieved. These are the construction of a deterministic 3-D reservoir analog model from a variety of geophysical and geologic measurements at the field sites, integrating these into comprehensive petrophysical models, and flow simulation through these models. This unique approach represents a significant advance in characterization and use of reservoir analogs. To data,the team has presented five papers at GSA and AAPG meetings produced a technical manual, and completed 15 technical papers. The latter are the main content of this final report. In addition,the project became part of 5 PhD dissertations, 3 MS theses,and two senior undergraduate research projects.« less
Simulation of a multistage fractured horizontal well in a water-bearing tight fractured gas reservoir under non-Darcy flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Rui-Han; Zhang, Lie-Hui; Wang, Rui-He; Zhao, Yu-Long; Huang, Rui

2018-06-01

Reservoir development for unconventional resources such as tight gas reservoirs is in increasing demand due to the rapid decline of production in conventional reserves. Compared with conventional reservoirs, fluid flow in water-bearing tight gas reservoirs is subject to more nonlinear multiphase flow and gas slippage in nano/micro matrix pores because of the strong collisions between rock and gas molecules. Economic gas production from tight gas reservoirs depends on extensive application of water-based hydraulic fracturing of horizontal wells, associated with non-Darcy flow at a high flow rate, geomechanical stress sensitivity of un-propped natural fractures, complex flow geometry and multiscale heterogeneity. How to efficiently and accurately predict the production performance of a multistage fractured horizontal well (MFHW) is challenging. In this paper, a novel multicontinuum, multimechanism, two-phase simulator is established based on unstructured meshes and the control volume finite element method to analyze the production performance of MFHWs. The multiple interacting continua model and discrete fracture model are coupled to integrate the unstimulated fractured reservoir, induced fracture networks (stimulated reservoir volumes, SRVs) and irregular discrete hydraulic fractures. Several simulations and sensitivity analyses are performed with the developed simulator for determining the key factors affecting the production performance of MFHWs. Two widely applied fracturing models, classic hydraulic fracturing which generates long double-wing fractures and the volumetric fracturing aimed at creating large SRVs, are compared to identify which of them can make better use of tight gas reserves.
Revised Comparisons of Simulated Hydrodynamics and Water Quality for Projected Demands in 2046, Pueblo Reservoir, Southeastern Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ortiz, Roderick F.; Miller, Lisa D.

2009-01-01

Pueblo Reservoir is one of southeastern Colorado's most valuable water resources. The reservoir provides irrigation, municipal, and industrial water to various entities throughout the region. The reservoir also provides flood control, recreational activities, sport fishing, and wildlife enhancement to the region. The Southern Delivery System (SDS) project is a regional water-delivery project that has been proposed to provide a safe, reliable, and sustainable water supply through the foreseeable future (2046) for Colorado Springs, Fountain, Security, and Pueblo West. Discussions with the Bureau of Reclamation and the U.S. Geological Survey led to a cooperative agreement to simulate the hydrodynamics and water quality of Pueblo Reservoir. This work has been completed and described in a previously published report, U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2008-5056. Additionally, there was a need to make comparisons of simulated hydrodynamics and water quality for projected demands associated with the various Environmental Impact Statements (EIS) alternatives and plans by Pueblo West to discharge treated wastewater into the reservoir. Wastewater plans by Pueblo West are fully independent of the SDS project. This report compares simulated hydrodynamics and water quality for projected demands in Pueblo Reservoir resulting from changes in inflow and water quality entering the reservoir, and from changes to withdrawals from the reservoir as projected for the year 2046. Four of the seven EIS alternatives were selected for scenario simulations. The four U.S. Geological Survey simulation scenarios were the No Action scenario (EIS Alternative 1), the Downstream Diversion scenario (EIS Alternative 2), the Upstream Return-Flow scenario (EIS Alternative 4), and the Upstream Diversion scenario (EIS Alternative 7). Additionally, the results of an Existing Conditions scenario (year 2006 demand conditions) were compared to the No Action scenario (projected demands in 2046) to assess changes in water quality over time. All scenario modeling used an external nutrient-decay model to simulate degradation and assimilation of nutrients along the riverine reach upstream from Pueblo Reservoir. Reservoir modeling was conducted using the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers CE-QUAL-W2 two-dimensional water-quality model. Lake hydrodynamics, water temperature, dissolved oxygen, dissolved solids, dissolved ammonia, dissolved nitrate, total phosphorus, algal biomass, and total iron were simulated. Two reservoir site locations were selected for comparison. Results of simulations at site 3B were characteristic of a riverine environment in the reservoir, whereas results at site 7B (near the dam) were characteristic of the main body of the reservoir. Simulation results for the epilimnion and hypolimnion at these two sites also were evaluated and compared. The simulation results in the hypolimnion at site 7B were indicative of the water quality leaving the reservoir. Comparisons of the different scenario results were conducted to assess if substantial differences were observed between selected scenarios. Each of the scenarios was simulated for three contiguous years representing a wet, average, and dry annual hydrologic cycle (water years 2000 through 2002). Additionally, each selected simulation scenario was evaluated for differences in direct and cumulative effects on a particular scenario. Direct effects are intended to isolate the future effects of the scenarios. Cumulative effects are intended to evaluate the effects of the scenarios in conjunction with all reasonably foreseeable future activities in the study area. Comparisons between the direct- and cumulative-effects analyses indicated that there were not large differences in the results between most of the simulation scenarios, and, as such, the focus of this report was on results for the direct-effects analysis. Additionally, the differences between simulation results generally were
Final Report: Development of a Chemical Model to Predict the Interactions between Supercritical CO2, Fluid and Rock in EGS Reservoirs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McPherson, Brian J.; Pan, Feng

2014-09-24

This report summarizes development of a coupled-process reservoir model for simulating enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) that utilize supercritical carbon dioxide as a working fluid. Specifically, the project team developed an advanced chemical kinetic model for evaluating important processes in EGS reservoirs, such as mineral precipitation and dissolution at elevated temperature and pressure, and for evaluating potential impacts on EGS surface facilities by related chemical processes. We assembled a new database for better-calibrated simulation of water/brine/ rock/CO2 interactions in EGS reservoirs. This database utilizes existing kinetic and other chemical data, and we updated those data to reflect corrections for elevated temperaturemore » and pressure conditions of EGS reservoirs.« less
Experiments with Interaction between the National Water Model and the Reservoir System Simulation Model: A Case Study of Russian River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, J.; Johnson, L.; Cifelli, R.; Chandra, C. V.; Gochis, D.; McCreight, J. L.; Yates, D. N.; Read, L.; Flowers, T.; Cosgrove, B.

2017-12-01

NOAA National Water Center (NWC) in partnership with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and other academic partners have produced operational hydrologic predictions for the nation using a new National Water Model (NWM) that is based on the community WRF-Hydro modeling system since the summer of 2016 (Gochis et al., 2015). The NWM produces a variety of hydrologic analysis and prediction products, including gridded fields of soil moisture, snowpack, shallow groundwater levels, inundated area depths, evapotranspiration as well as estimates of river flow and velocity for approximately 2.7 million river reaches. Also included in the NWM are representations for more than 1,200 reservoirs which are linked into the national channel network defined by the USGS NHDPlusv2.0 hydrography dataset. Despite the unprecedented spatial and temporal coverage of the NWM, many known deficiencies exist, including the representation of lakes and reservoirs. This study addresses the implementation of a reservoir assimilation scheme through coupling of a reservoir simulation model to represent the influence of managed flows. We examine the use of the reservoir operations to dynamically update lake/reservoir storage volume states, characterize flow characteristics of river reaches flowing into and out of lakes and reservoirs, and incorporate enhanced reservoir operating rules for the reservoir model options within the NWM. Model experiments focus on a pilot reservoir domain-Lake Mendocino, CA, and its contributing watershed, the East Fork Russian River. This reservoir is modeled using United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) HEC-ResSim developed for application to examine forecast informed reservoir operations (FIRO) in the Russian River basin.
Estimating reservoir permeability from gravity current modeling of CO2 flow at Sleipner storage project, North Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cowton, L. R.; Neufeld, J. A.; Bickle, M.; White, N.; White, J.; Chadwick, A.

2017-12-01

Vertically-integrated gravity current models enable computationally efficient simulations of CO2 flow in sub-surface reservoirs. These simulations can be used to investigate the properties of reservoirs by minimizing differences between observed and modeled CO2 distributions. At the Sleipner project, about 1 Mt yr-1 of supercritical CO2 is injected at a depth of 1 km into a pristine saline aquifer with a thick shale caprock. Analysis of time-lapse seismic reflection surveys shows that CO2 is distributed within 9 discrete layers. The trapping mechanism comprises a stacked series of 1 m thick, impermeable shale horizons that are spaced at 30 m intervals through the reservoir. Within the stratigraphically highest reservoir layer, Layer 9, a submarine channel deposit has been mapped on the pre-injection seismic survey. Detailed measurements of the three-dimensional CO2 distribution within Layer 9 have been made using seven time-lapse surveys, providing a useful benchmark against which numerical flow simulations can be tested. Previous simulations have, in general, been largely unsuccessful in matching the migration rate of CO2 in this layer. Here, CO2 flow within Layer 9 is modeled as a vertically-integrated gravity current that spreads beneath a structurally complex caprock using a two-dimensional grid, considerably increasing computational efficiency compared to conventional three-dimensional simulators. This flow model is inverted to find the optimal reservoir permeability in Layer 9 by minimizing the difference between observed and predicted distributions of CO2 as a function of space and time. A three parameter inverse model, comprising reservoir permeability, channel permeability and channel width, is investigated by grid search. The best-fitting reservoir permeability is 3 Darcys, which is consistent with measurements made on core material from the reservoir. Best-fitting channel permeability is 26 Darcys. Finally, the ability of this simplified numerical model to forecast CO2 flow within Layer 9 is tested. Permeability recovered by modeling a suite of early seismic surveys is used to predict the CO2 distribution for a suite of later seismic surveys with a considerable degree of success. Forecasts have also been carried out that can be tested using future seismic surveys.
Ensemble Flow Forecasts for Risk Based Reservoir Operations of Lake Mendocino in Mendocino County, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delaney, C.; Hartman, R. K.; Mendoza, J.; Evans, K. M.; Evett, S.

2016-12-01

Forecast informed reservoir operations (FIRO) is a methodology that incorporates short to mid-range precipitation or flow forecasts to inform the flood operations of reservoirs. Previous research and modeling for flood control reservoirs has shown that FIRO can reduce flood risk and increase water supply for many reservoirs. The risk-based method of FIRO presents a unique approach that incorporates flow forecasts made by NOAA's California-Nevada River Forecast Center (CNRFC) to model and assess risk of meeting or exceeding identified management targets or thresholds. Forecasted risk is evaluated against set risk tolerances to set reservoir flood releases. A water management model was developed for Lake Mendocino, a 116,500 acre-foot reservoir located near Ukiah, California. Lake Mendocino is a dual use reservoir, which is owned and operated for flood control by the United State Army Corps of Engineers and is operated by the Sonoma County Water Agency for water supply. Due to recent changes in the operations of an upstream hydroelectric facility, this reservoir has been plagued with water supply reliability issues since 2007. FIRO is applied to Lake Mendocino by simulating daily hydrologic conditions from 1985 to 2010 in the Upper Russian River from Lake Mendocino to the City of Healdsburg approximately 50 miles downstream. The risk-based method is simulated using a 15-day, 61 member streamflow hindcast by the CNRFC. Model simulation results of risk-based flood operations demonstrate a 23% increase in average end of water year (September 30) storage levels over current operations. Model results show no increase in occurrence of flood damages for points downstream of Lake Mendocino. This investigation demonstrates that FIRO may be a viable flood control operations approach for Lake Mendocino and warrants further investigation through additional modeling and analysis.
Comparisons of Simulated Hydrodynamics and Water Quality for Projected Demands in 2046, Pueblo Reservoir, Southeastern Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ortiz, Roderick F.; Galloway, Joel M.; Miller, Lisa D.; Mau, David P.

2008-01-01

Pueblo Reservoir is one of southeastern Colorado's most valuable water resources. The reservoir provides irrigation, municipal, and industrial water to various entities throughout the region. The reservoir also provides flood control, recreational activities, sport fishing, and wildlife enhancement to the region. The Bureau of Reclamation is working to meet its goal to issue a Final Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) on the Southern Delivery System project (SDS). SDS is a regional water-delivery project that has been proposed to provide a safe, reliable, and sustainable water supply through the foreseeable future (2046) for Colorado Springs, Fountain, Security, and Pueblo West. Discussions with the Bureau of Reclamation and the U.S. Geological Survey led to a cooperative agreement to simulate the hydrodynamics and water quality of Pueblo Reservoir. This work has been completed and described in a previously published report, U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2008-5056. Additionally, there was a need to make comparisons of simulated hydrodynamics and water quality for projected demands associated with the various EIS alternatives and plans by Pueblo West to discharge treated water into the reservoir. Plans by Pueblo West are fully independent of the SDS project. This report compares simulated hydrodynamics and water quality for projected demands in Pueblo Reservoir resulting from changes in inflow and water quality entering the reservoir, and from changes to withdrawals from the reservoir as projected for the year 2046. Four of the seven EIS alternatives were selected for scenario simulations. The four U.S. Geological Survey simulation scenarios were the No Action scenario (EIS Alternative 1), the Downstream Diversion scenario (EIS Alternative 2), the Upstream Return-Flow scenario (EIS Alternative 4), and the Upstream Diversion scenario (EIS Alternative 7). Additionally, the results of an Existing Conditions scenario (water years 2000 through 2002) were compared to the No Action scenario (projected demands in 2046) to assess changes in water quality over time. All scenario modeling used an external nutrient-decay model to simulate degradation and assimilation of nutrients along the riverine reach upstream from Pueblo Reservoir. Reservoir modeling was conducted using the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers CE-QUAL-W2 two-dimensional water-quality model. Lake hydrodynamics, water temperature, dissolved oxygen, dissolved solids, dissolved ammonia, dissolved nitrate, total phosphorus, algal biomass, and total iron were simulated. Two reservoir site locations were selected for comparison. Results of simulations at site 3B were characteristic of a riverine environment in the reservoir while results at site 7B (near the dam) were characteristic of the main body of the reservoir. Simulation results for the epilimnion and hypolimnion at these two sites also were evaluated and compared. The simulation results in the hypolimnion at site 7B were indicative of the water quality leaving the reservoir. Comparisons of the different scenario results were conducted to assess if substantial differences were observed between selected scenarios. Each of the scenarios was simulated for three contiguous years representing a wet, average, and dry annual hydrologic cycle (water years 2000 through 2002). Additionally, each selected simulation scenario was evaluated for differences in direct- and cumulative-effects on a particular scenario. Direct effects are intended to isolate the future effects of the scenarios. Cumulative effects are intended to evaluate the effects of the scenarios in conjunction with all reasonably foreseeable future activities in the study area. Comparisons between the direct- and cumulative-effects analyses indicated that there were not large differences in the results between most of the simulation scenarios and, as such, the focus of this report was on results for the direct-effects analysis. Addi
Impacts of Climate Change on Stream Temperatures in the Clearwater River, Idaho

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yearsley, J. R.; Chegwidden, O.; Nijssen, B.

2016-12-01

Dworshak Dam in northern Idaho impounds the waters of the North Fork of the Clearwater River, creating a reservoir of approximately 4.278 km3 at full pool elevation. The dam's primary purpose is for flood control and hydroelectric power generation. It also provides important water quality benefits by releasing cold water into the Clearwater River during the summer when conditions become critical for migrating endangered species of salmon. Changes in the climate may have an impact on the ability of Dworshak Dam and Reservoir to provide these benefits. To investigate the potential for extreme outcomes that would limit cold water releases from Dworshak Reservoir and compromise the fishery, we implemented a system of hydrologic and water temperature models that simulate daily-averaged water temperatures in both the riverine and reservoir environments. We used the macroscale hydrologic model, VIC, to simulate land surface water and energy fluxes, the one-dimensional, time-dependent stream temperature model, RBM, to simulate river temperatures and a modified version of CEQUAL-W2 to simulate water temperatures in Dworshak Reservoir. A long-term hydrologically based gridded data set of meteorological forcing provided the input for comparing model results with available observations of flow and water temperature. For purposes of investigating the impacts of climate change, we used the results from ten of the most recent Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) climate change models scenarios in conjunction with the estimates of anthropogenic inputs of climate change gases from two representative concentration pathways (RCP). We compared the simulated results associated with a range of outcomes at critical river locations from the climate scenarios with existing conditions assuming that the reservoir would be operated under a rule curve based on the average reservoir elevation for the period 2006-2015 rule curve and for power demands represented by that same period.
Numerical simulation of water injection into vapor-dominated reservoirs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pruess, K.

1995-01-01

Water injection into vapor-dominated reservoirs is a means of condensate disposal, as well as a reservoir management tool for enhancing energy recovery and reservoir life. We review different approaches to modeling the complex fluid and heat flow processes during injection into vapor-dominated systems. Vapor pressure lowering, grid orientation effects, and physical dispersion of injection plumes from reservoir heterogeneity are important considerations for a realistic modeling of injection effects. An example of detailed three-dimensional modeling of injection experiments at The Geysers is given.
Quantitative Analysis of Existing Conditions and Production Strategies for the Baca Geothermal System, New Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faust, Charles R.; Mercer, James W.; Thomas, Stephen D.; Balleau, W. Pete

1984-05-01

The Baca geothermal reservoir and adjacent aquifers in the Jemez Mountains of New Mexico comprise an integrated hydrogeologic system. Analysis of the geothermal reservoir either under natural conditions or subject to proposed development should account for the mass (water) and energy (heat) balances of adjacent aquifers as well as the reservoir itself. A three-dimensional model based on finite difference approximations is applied to this integrated system. The model simulates heat transport associated with the flow of steam and water through an equivalent porous medium. The Baca geothermal reservoir is dominated by flow in fractures and distinct strata, but at the scale of application the equivalent porous media concept is appropriate. The geothermal reservoir and adjacent aquifers are simulated under both natural conditions and proposed production strategies. Simulation of natural conditions compares favorably with observed pressure, temperature, and thermal discharge data. The history matching simulations show that the results used for comparison are most sensitive to vertical permeability and the area of an assumed high-permeability zone connecting the reservoir to a deep hydrothermal source. Simulations using proposed production strategies and optimistic estimates of certain hydrologic parameters and reservoir extent indicate that a 50-MW power plant could be maintained for a period greater than 30 years. This production, however, will result in significant decreases in the total water discharge to the Jemez River.

Hydraulic Fracturing and Production Optimization in Eagle Ford Shale Using Coupled Geomechanics and Fluid Flow Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suppachoknirun, Theerapat; Tutuncu, Azra N.

2017-12-01

With increasing production from shale gas and tight oil reservoirs, horizontal drilling and multistage hydraulic fracturing processes have become a routine procedure in unconventional field development efforts. Natural fractures play a critical role in hydraulic fracture growth, subsequently affecting stimulated reservoir volume and the production efficiency. Moreover, the existing fractures can also contribute to the pressure-dependent fluid leak-off during the operations. Hence, a reliable identification of the discrete fracture network covering the zone of interest prior to the hydraulic fracturing design needs to be incorporated into the hydraulic fracturing and reservoir simulations for realistic representation of the in situ reservoir conditions. In this research study, an integrated 3-D fracture and fluid flow model have been developed using a new approach to simulate the fluid flow and deliver reliable production forecasting in naturally fractured and hydraulically stimulated tight reservoirs. The model was created with three key modules. A complex 3-D discrete fracture network model introduces realistic natural fracture geometry with the associated fractured reservoir characteristics. A hydraulic fracturing model is created utilizing the discrete fracture network for simulation of the hydraulic fracture and flow in the complex discrete fracture network. Finally, a reservoir model with the production grid system is used allowing the user to efficiently perform the fluid flow simulation in tight formations with complex fracture networks. The complex discrete natural fracture model, the integrated discrete fracture model for the hydraulic fracturing, the fluid flow model, and the input dataset have been validated against microseismic fracture mapping and commingled production data obtained from a well pad with three horizontal production wells located in the Eagle Ford oil window in south Texas. Two other fracturing geometries were also evaluated to optimize the cumulative production and for the three wells individually. Significant reduction in the production rate in early production times is anticipated in tight reservoirs regardless of the fracturing techniques implemented. The simulations conducted using the alternating fracturing technique led to more oil production than when zipper fracturing was used for a 20-year production period. Yet, due to the decline experienced, the differences in cumulative production get smaller, and the alternating fracturing is not practically implementable while field application of zipper fracturing technique is more practical and widely used.
Modeling high resolution stratigraphy in the Cusiana Field, Eastern Colombia; static builds to dynamic simulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pulham, A.; MacDonald, D.; Colin, D.

1996-12-31

The Cusiana Field (BP, Ecopetrol, Total and Triton) is located in the Llanos Foothills of Eastern Colombia. The Cusiana reservoirs range from late Cretaceous, passive margin deltaic to early Tertiary, early foreland basin estuarine-fluvial. The key reservoir is the late Eocene Mirador Formation which comprises over 50% of reserves. Currently the Mirador reservoir is providing nearly all of the 180,00 bopd of production from the Cusiana Field. The Mirador reservoir comprises a stack of incised valley deposits. The fills of the valleys are sandstone-dominated and comprise the majority of the reservoir quality in the reservoir. Critical to an effective understandingmore » of reservoir behavior has been a detailed reservoir description and reservoir modeling of the incised valley stratigraphy in the Mirador. Models have been constructed using the deterministic information provided by extensive core (3000 feet) coupled with stochastic tools and techniques. Dynamic data, provided by extensive acquisition of production logs during early development drilling, have been integrated within the static-descriptions. Important reservoir characteristics such as degree of valley connectivity, intra-valley heterogeneities and textural controls on permeability have been captured in the modeling process. Upscaling of the high resolution static model has preserved the key sequence stratigraphic facets of the reservoir and also incorporated textural controls on relative permeability. Prediction of pressure transient behavior and fluid movement is working well in the full field simulator, VIP.« less
Numerical simulations of depressurization-induced gas production from gas hydrate reservoirs at the Walker Ridge 312 site, northern Gulf of Mexico

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Myshakin, Evgeniy M.; Gaddipati, Manohar; Rose, Kelly

2012-06-01

In 2009, the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) Gas Hydrates Joint-Industry-Project (JIP) Leg II drilling program confirmed that gas hydrate occurs at high saturations within reservoir-quality sands in the GOM. A comprehensive logging-while-drilling dataset was collected from seven wells at three sites, including two wells at the Walker Ridge 313 site. By constraining the saturations and thicknesses of hydrate-bearing sands using logging-while-drilling data, two-dimensional (2D), cylindrical, r-z and three-dimensional (3D) reservoir models were simulated. The gas hydrate occurrences inferred from seismic analysis are used to delineate the areal extent of the 3D reservoir models. Numerical simulations of gas production from themore » Walker Ridge reservoirs were conducted using the depressurization method at a constant bottomhole pressure. Results of these simulations indicate that these hydrate deposits are readily produced, owing to high intrinsic reservoir-quality and their proximity to the base of hydrate stability. The elevated in situ reservoir temperatures contribute to high (5–40 MMscf/day) predicted production rates. The production rates obtained from the 2D and 3D models are in close agreement. To evaluate the effect of spatial dimensions, the 2D reservoir domains were simulated at two outer radii. The results showed increased potential for formation of secondary hydrate and appearance of lag time for production rates as reservoir size increases. Similar phenomena were observed in the 3D reservoir models. The results also suggest that interbedded gas hydrate accumulations might be preferable targets for gas production in comparison with massive deposits. Hydrate in such accumulations can be readily dissociated due to heat supply from surrounding hydrate-free zones. Special cases were considered to evaluate the effect of overburden and underburden permeability on production. The obtained data show that production can be significantly degraded in comparison with a case using impermeable boundaries. The main reason for the reduced productivity is water influx from the surrounding strata; a secondary cause is gas escape into the overburden. The results dictate that in order to reliably estimate production potential, permeability of the surroundings has to be included in a model.« less
Understanding the Impact of Reservoir Operations on Temperature Hydrodynamics at Shasta Lake through 2D and 3D Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hallnan, R.; Busby, D.; Saito, L.; Daniels, M.; Danner, E.; Tyler, S.

2016-12-01

Stress on California's salmon fisheries as a result of recent drought highlights a need for effective temperature management in the Sacramento River. Cool temperatures are required for Chinook salmon spawning and rearing. At Shasta Dam in northern California, managers use selective reservoir withdrawals to meet downstream temperature thresholds set for Chinook salmon populations. Shasta Dam is equipped with a temperature control device (TCD) that allows for water withdrawals at different reservoir depths. A two-dimensional CE-QUAL-W2 (W2) model of Shasta Reservoir has been used to understand the impacts of TCD operations on reservoir and discharge dynamics at Shasta. W2 models the entire reservoir based on hydrologic and meteorological inputs, and therefore can be used to simulate various hydroclimatic conditions, reservoir operations, and resulting reservoir conditions. A limitation of the W2 model is that it only captures reservoir conditions in two dimensions (length and depth), which may not represent local hydrodynamic effects of TCD operations that could affect simulation of discharge temperatures. Thus, a three-dimensional (3D) model of the TCD and the immediately adjacent upstream reservoir has been constructed using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) in ANSYS Fluent. This 3D model provides additional insight into the mixing effects of different TCD operations, and resulting reservoir outflow temperatures. The drought conditions of 2015 provide a valuable dataset for assessing the efficacy of modeling the temperature profile of Shasta Reservoir under very low inflow volumes, so the W2 and CFD models are compared for model performance in late 2015. To assist with this assessment, data from a distributed temperature sensing (DTS) deployment at Shasta Lake since August 2015 are used. This presentation describes model results from both W2 as well as the CFD model runs during late 2015, and discuss their efficacy for modeling drought conditions.
Performance prediction using geostatistics and window reservoir simulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fontanilla, J.P.; Al-Khalawi, A.A.; Johnson, S.G.

1995-11-01

This paper is the first window model study in the northern area of a large carbonate reservoir in Saudi Arabia. It describes window reservoir simulation with geostatistics to model uneven water encroachment in the southwest producing area of the northern portion of the reservoir. In addition, this paper describes performance predictions that investigate the sweep efficiency of the current peripheral waterflood. A 50 x 50 x 549 (240 m. x 260 m. x 0.15 m. average grid block size) geological model was constructed with geostatistics software. Conditional simulation was used to obtain spatial distributions of porosity and volume of dolomite.more » Core data transforms were used to obtain horizontal and vertical permeability distributions. Simple averaging techniques were used to convert the 549-layer geological model to a 50 x 50 x 10 (240 m. x 260 m. x 8 m. average grid block size) window reservoir simulation model. Flux injectors and flux producers were assigned to the outermost grid blocks. Historical boundary flux rates were obtained from a coarsely-ridded full-field model. Pressure distribution, water cuts, GORs, and recent flowmeter data were history matched. Permeability correction factors and numerous parameter adjustments were required to obtain the final history match. The permeability correction factors were based on pressure transient permeability-thickness analyses. The prediction phase of the study evaluated the effects of infill drilling, the use of artificial lifts, workovers, horizontal wells, producing rate constraints, and tight zone development to formulate depletion strategies for the development of this area. The window model will also be used to investigate day-to-day reservoir management problems in this area.« less
Effects of water-supply reservoirs on streamflow in Massachusetts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Levin, Sara B.

2016-10-06

State and local water-resource managers need modeling tools to help them manage and protect water-supply resources for both human consumption and ecological needs. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection, has developed a decision-support tool to estimate the effects of reservoirs on natural streamflow. The Massachusetts Reservoir Simulation Tool is a model that simulates the daily water balance of a reservoir. The reservoir simulation tool provides estimates of daily outflows from reservoirs and compares the frequency, duration, and magnitude of the volume of outflows from reservoirs with estimates of the unaltered streamflow that would occur if no dam were present. This tool will help environmental managers understand the complex interactions and tradeoffs between water withdrawals, reservoir operational practices, and reservoir outflows needed for aquatic habitats.A sensitivity analysis of the daily water balance equation was performed to identify physical and operational features of reservoirs that could have the greatest effect on reservoir outflows. For the purpose of this report, uncontrolled releases of water (spills or spillage) over the reservoir spillway were considered to be a proxy for reservoir outflows directly below the dam. The ratio of average withdrawals to the average inflows had the largest effect on spillage patterns, with the highest withdrawals leading to the lowest spillage. The size of the surface area relative to the drainage area of the reservoir also had an effect on spillage; reservoirs with large surface areas have high evaporation rates during the summer, which can contribute to frequent and long periods without spillage, even in the absence of water withdrawals. Other reservoir characteristics, such as variability of inflows, groundwater interactions, and seasonal demand patterns, had low to moderate effects on the frequency, duration, and magnitude of spillage. The reservoir simulation tool was used to simulate 35 single- and multiple-reservoir systems in Massachusetts over a 44-year period (water years 1961 to 2004) under two water-use scenarios. The no-pumping scenario assumes no water withdrawal pumping, and the pumping scenario incorporates average annual pumping rates from 2000 to 2004. By comparing the results of the two scenarios, the total streamflow alteration can be parsed into the portion of streamflow alteration caused by the presence of a reservoir and the additional streamflow alteration caused by the level of water use of the system.For each reservoir system, the following metrics were computed to characterize the frequency, duration, and magnitude of reservoir outflow volumes compared with unaltered streamflow conditions: (1) the median number of days per year in which the reservoir did not spill, (2) the median duration of the longest consecutive period of no-spill days per year, and (3) the lowest annual flow duration exceedance probability at which the outflows are significantly different from estimated unaltered streamflow at the 95-percent confidence level. Most reservoirs in the study do not spill during the summer months even under no-pumping conditions. The median number of days during which there was no spillage was less than 365 for all reservoirs in the study, indicating that, even under reported pumping conditions, the reservoirs refill to full volume and spill at least once during nondrought years, typically in the spring.Thirteen multiple-reservoir systems consisting of two or three hydrologically connected reservoirs were included in the study. Because operating rules used to manage multiple-reservoir systems are not available, these systems were simulated under two pumping scenarios, one in which water transfers between reservoirs are minimal and one in which reservoirs continually transferred water to intermediate or terminal reservoirs. These two scenarios provided upper and lower estimates of spillage under average pumping conditions from 2000 to 2004.For sites with insufficient data to simulate daily water balances, a proxy method to estimate the three spillage metrics was developed. A series of 4,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the reservoir water balance were run. In each simulation, streamflow, physical reservoir characteristics, and daily climate inputs were randomly varied. Tobit regression equations that quantify the relation between streamflow alteration and physical and operational characteristics of reservoirs were developed from the results of the Monte Carlo simulations and can be used to estimate each of the three spillage metrics using only the withdrawal ratio and the ratio of the surface area to the drainage area, which are available statewide for all reservoirs.A graphical user-interface for the Massachusetts Reservoir Simulation Tool was developed in a Microsoft Access environment. The simulation tool contains information for 70 reservoirs in Massachusetts and allows for simulation of additional scenarios than the ones considered in this report, including controlled releases, dam seepage and leakage, demand management plans, and alternative water withdrawal and transfer rules.
Modelling and observing the role of wind in Anopheles population dynamics around a reservoir.

PubMed

Endo, Noriko; Eltahir, Elfatih A B

2018-01-25

Wind conditions, as well as other environmental conditions, are likely to influence malaria transmission through the behaviours of Anopheles mosquitoes, especially around water-resource reservoirs. Wind-induced waves in a reservoir impose mortality on aquatic-stage mosquitoes. Mosquitoes' host-seeking activity is also influenced by wind through dispersion of [Formula: see text]. However, no malaria transmission model exists to date that simulated those impacts of wind mechanistically. A modelling framework for simulating the three important effects of wind on the behaviours of mosquito is developed: attraction of adult mosquitoes through dispersion of [Formula: see text] ([Formula: see text] attraction), advection of adult mosquitoes (advection), and aquatic-stage mortality due to wind-induced surface waves (waves). The framework was incorporated in a mechanistic malaria transmission simulator, HYDREMATS. The performance of the extended simulator was compared with the observed population dynamics of the Anopheles mosquitoes at a village adjacent to the Koka Reservoir in Ethiopia. The observed population dynamics of the Anopheles mosquitoes were reproduced with some reasonable accuracy in HYDREMATS that includes the representation of the wind effects. HYDREMATS without the wind model failed to do so. Offshore wind explained the increase in Anopheles population that cannot be expected from other environmental conditions alone. Around large water bodies such as reservoirs, the role of wind in the dynamics of Anopheles population, hence in malaria transmission, can be significant. Modelling the impacts of wind on the behaviours of Anopheles mosquitoes aids in reproducing the seasonality of malaria transmission and in estimation of the risk of malaria around reservoirs.
Factors Affecting Firm Yield and the Estimation of Firm Yield for Selected Streamflow-Dominated Drinking-Water-Supply Reservoirs in Massachusetts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Waldron, Marcus C.; Archfield, Stacey A.

2006-01-01

Factors affecting reservoir firm yield, as determined by application of the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection's Firm Yield Estimator (FYE) model, were evaluated, modified, and tested on 46 streamflow-dominated reservoirs representing 15 Massachusetts drinking-water supplies. The model uses a mass-balance approach to determine the maximum average daily withdrawal rate that can be sustained during a period of record that includes the 1960s drought-of-record. The FYE methodology to estimate streamflow to the reservoir at an ungaged site was tested by simulating streamflow at two streamflow-gaging stations in Massachusetts and comparing the simulated streamflow to the observed streamflow. In general, the FYE-simulated flows agreed well with observed flows. There were substantial deviations from the measured values for extreme high and low flows. A sensitivity analysis determined that the model's streamflow estimates are most sensitive to input values for average annual precipitation, reservoir drainage area, and the soil-retention number-a term that describes the amount of precipitation retained by the soil in the basin. The FYE model currently provides the option of using a 1,000-year synthetic record constructed by randomly sampling 2-year blocks of concurrent streamflow and precipitation records 500 times; however, the synthetic record has the potential to generate records of precipitation and streamflow that do not reflect the worst historical drought in Massachusetts. For reservoirs that do not have periods of drawdown greater than 2 years, the bootstrap does not offer any additional information about the firm yield of a reservoir than the historical record does. For some reservoirs, the use of a synthetic record to determine firm yield resulted in as much as a 30-percent difference between firm-yield values from one simulation to the next. Furthermore, the assumption that the synthetic traces of streamflow are statistically equivalent to the historical record is not valid. For multiple-reservoir systems, the firm-yield estimate was dependent on the reservoir system's configuration. The firm yield of a system is sensitive to how the water is transferred from one reservoir to another, the capacity of the connection between the reservoirs, and how seasonal variations in demand are represented in the FYE model. Firm yields for 25 (14 single-reservoir systems and 11 multiple-reservoir systems) reservoir systems were determined by using the historical records of streamflow and precipitation. Current water-use data indicate that, on average, 20 of the 25 reservoir systems in the study were operating below their estimated firm yield; during months with peak demands, withdrawals exceeded the firm yield for 8 reservoir systems.
DEVELOPMENT OF AN IMPROVED SIMULATOR FOR CHEMICAL AND MICROBIAL IOR METHODS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gary A. Pope; Kamy Sepehrnoori; Mojdeh Delshad

2001-10-01

This is the final report of a three-year research project on further development of a chemical and microbial improved oil recovery reservoir simulator. The objective of this research was to extend the capability of an existing simulator (UTCHEM) to improved oil recovery methods which use surfactants, polymers, gels, alkaline chemicals, microorganisms and foam as well as various combinations of these in both conventional and naturally fractured oil reservoirs. The first task was the addition of a dual-porosity model for chemical IOR in naturally fractured oil reservoirs. They formulated and implemented a multiphase, multicomponent dual porosity model for enhanced oil recoverymore » from naturally fractured reservoirs. The multiphase dual porosity model was tested against analytical solutions, coreflood data, and commercial simulators. The second task was the addition of a foam model. They implemented a semi-empirical surfactant/foam model in UTCHEM and validated the foam model by comparison with published laboratory data. The third task addressed several numerical and coding enhancements that will greatly improve its versatility and performance. Major enhancements were made in UTCHEM output files and memory management. A graphical user interface to set up the simulation input and to process the output data on a Windows PC was developed. New solvers for solving the pressure equation and geochemical system of equations were implemented and tested. A corner point grid geometry option for gridding complex reservoirs was implemented and tested. Enhancements of physical property models for both chemical and microbial IOR simulations were included in the final task of this proposal. Additional options for calculating the physical properties such as relative permeability and capillary pressure were added. A microbiological population model was developed and incorporated into UTCHEM. They have applied the model to microbial enhanced oil recovery (MEOR) processes by including the capability of permeability reduction due to biomass growth and retention. The formations of bio-products such as surfactant and polymer surfactant have also been incorporated.« less
Modeling Wettability Alteration using Chemical EOR Processes in Naturally Fractured Reservoirs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mojdeh Delshad; Gary A. Pope; Kamy Sepehrnoori

2007-09-30

The objective of our search is to develop a mechanistic simulation tool by adapting UTCHEM to model the wettability alteration in both conventional and naturally fractured reservoirs. This will be a unique simulator that can model surfactant floods in naturally fractured reservoir with coupling of wettability effects on relative permeabilities, capillary pressure, and capillary desaturation curves. The capability of wettability alteration will help us and others to better understand and predict the oil recovery mechanisms as a function of wettability in naturally fractured reservoirs. The lack of a reliable simulator for wettability alteration means that either the concept that hasmore » already been proven to be effective in the laboratory scale may never be applied commercially to increase oil production or the process must be tested in the field by trial and error and at large expense in time and money. The objective of Task 1 is to perform a literature survey to compile published data on relative permeability, capillary pressure, dispersion, interfacial tension, and capillary desaturation curve as a function of wettability to aid in the development of petrophysical property models as a function of wettability. The new models and correlations will be tested against published data. The models will then be implemented in the compositional chemical flooding reservoir simulator, UTCHEM. The objective of Task 2 is to understand the mechanisms and develop a correlation for the degree of wettability alteration based on published data. The objective of Task 3 is to validate the models and implementation against published data and to perform 3-D field-scale simulations to evaluate the impact of uncertainties in the fracture and matrix properties on surfactant alkaline and hot water floods.« less
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ernest A. Mancini

The University of Alabama in cooperation with Texas A&M University, McGill University, Longleaf Energy Group, Strago Petroleum Corporation, and Paramount Petroleum Company are undertaking an integrated, interdisciplinary geoscientific and engineering research project. The project is designed to characterize and model reservoir architecture, pore systems and rock-fluid interactions at the pore to field scale in Upper Jurassic Smackover reef and carbonate shoal reservoirs associated with varying degrees of relief on pre-Mesozoic basement paleohighs in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. The project effort includes the prediction of fluid flow in carbonate reservoirs through reservoir simulation modeling that utilizes geologic reservoir characterization andmore » modeling and the prediction of carbonate reservoir architecture, heterogeneity and quality through seismic imaging. The primary objective of the project is to increase the profitability, producibility and efficiency of recovery of oil from existing and undiscovered Upper Jurassic fields characterized by reef and carbonate shoals associated with pre-Mesozoic basement paleohighs. The principal research effort for Year 3 of the project has been reservoir characterization, 3-D modeling, testing of the geologic-engineering model, and technology transfer. This effort has included six tasks: (1) the study of seismic attributes, (2) petrophysical characterization, (3) data integration, (4) the building of the geologic-engineering model, (5) the testing of the geologic-engineering model and (6) technology transfer. This work was scheduled for completion in Year 3. Progress on the project is as follows: geoscientific reservoir characterization is completed. The architecture, porosity types and heterogeneity of the reef and shoal reservoirs at Appleton and Vocation Fields have been characterized using geological and geophysical data. The study of rock-fluid interactions has been completed. Observations regarding the diagenetic processes influencing pore system development and heterogeneity in these reef and shoal reservoirs have been made. Petrophysical and engineering property characterization has been completed. Porosity and permeability data at Appleton and Vocation Fields have been analyzed, and well performance analysis has been conducted. Data integration is up to date, in that, the geological, geophysical, petrophysical and engineering data collected to date for Appleton and Vocation Fields have been compiled into a fieldwide digital database. 3-D geologic modeling of the structures and reservoirs at Appleton and Vocation Fields has been completed. The models represent an integration of geological, petrophysical and seismic data. 3-D reservoir simulation of the reservoirs at Appleton and Vocation Fields has been completed. The 3-D geologic models served as the framework for the simulations. The geologic-engineering models of the Appleton and Vocation Field reservoirs have been developed. These models are being tested. The geophysical interpretation for the paleotopographic feature being tested has been made, and the study of the data resulting from drilling of a well on this paleohigh is in progress. Numerous presentations on reservoir characterization and modeling at Appleton and Vocation Fields have been made at professional meetings and conferences and a short course on microbial reservoir characterization and modeling based on these fields has been prepared.« less
Simulated limnological effects of the Shasta Lake temperature control device

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bartholow, J.; Hanna, R.B.; Saito, L.; Lieberman, D.; Horn, M.

2001-01-01

We estimated the effects of a temperature control device (TCD) on a suite of thermodynamic and limnological attributes for a large storage reservoir, Shasta Lake, in northern California. Shasta Dam was constructed in 1945 with a fixed-elevation penstock. The TCD was installed in 1997 to improve downstream temperatures for endangered salmonids by releasing epilimnetic waters in the winter/spring and hypolimnetic waters in the summer/fall. We calibrated a two-dimensional hydrodynamic reservoir water quality model, CE-QUAL-W2, and applied a structured design-of-experiment simulation procedure to predict the principal limnological effects of the TCD under a variety of environmental scenarios. Calibration goodness-of-fit ranged from good to poor depending on the constituent simulated, with an R2 of 0.9 for water temperature but 0.3 for phytoplankton. Although the chemical and thermal characteristics of the discharge changed markedly, the reservoir's characteristics remained relatively unchanged. Simulations showed the TCD causing an earlier onset and shorter duration of summer stratification, but no dramatic affect on Shasta's nutrient composition. Peak in-reservoir phytoplankton production may begin earlier and be stronger in the fall with the TCD, while outfall phytoplankton concentrations may be much greater in the spring. Many model predictions differed from our a priori expectations that had been shaped by an intensive, but limited-duration, data collection effort. Hydrologic and meteorological variables, most notably reservoir carryover storage at the beginning of the calendar year, influenced model predictions much more strongly than the TCD. Model results indicate that greater control over reservoir limnology and release quality may be gained by carefully managing reservoir volume through the year than with the TCD alone.
A chemical EOR benchmark study of different reservoir simulators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goudarzi, Ali; Delshad, Mojdeh; Sepehrnoori, Kamy

2016-09-01

Interest in chemical EOR processes has intensified in recent years due to the advancements in chemical formulations and injection techniques. Injecting Polymer (P), surfactant/polymer (SP), and alkaline/surfactant/polymer (ASP) are techniques for improving sweep and displacement efficiencies with the aim of improving oil production in both secondary and tertiary floods. There has been great interest in chemical flooding recently for different challenging situations. These include high temperature reservoirs, formations with extreme salinity and hardness, naturally fractured carbonates, and sandstone reservoirs with heavy and viscous crude oils. More oil reservoirs are reaching maturity where secondary polymer floods and tertiary surfactant methods have become increasingly important. This significance has added to the industry's interest in using reservoir simulators as tools for reservoir evaluation and management to minimize costs and increase the process efficiency. Reservoir simulators with special features are needed to represent coupled chemical and physical processes present in chemical EOR processes. The simulators need to be first validated against well controlled lab and pilot scale experiments to reliably predict the full field implementations. The available data from laboratory scale include 1) phase behavior and rheological data; and 2) results of secondary and tertiary coreflood experiments for P, SP, and ASP floods under reservoir conditions, i.e. chemical retentions, pressure drop, and oil recovery. Data collected from corefloods are used as benchmark tests comparing numerical reservoir simulators with chemical EOR modeling capabilities such as STARS of CMG, ECLIPSE-100 of Schlumberger, REVEAL of Petroleum Experts. The research UTCHEM simulator from The University of Texas at Austin is also included since it has been the benchmark for chemical flooding simulation for over 25 years. The results of this benchmark comparison will be utilized to improve chemical design for field-scale studies using commercial simulators. The benchmark tests illustrate the potential of commercial simulators for chemical flooding projects and provide a comprehensive table of strengths and limitations of each simulator for a given chemical EOR process. Mechanistic simulations of chemical EOR processes will provide predictive capability and can aid in optimization of the field injection projects. The objective of this paper is not to compare the computational efficiency and solution algorithms; it only focuses on the process modeling comparison.
Numerical simulation of the SAGD process coupled with geomechanical behavior

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Pingke

Canada has vast oil sand resources. While a large portion of this resource can be recovered by surface mining techniques, a majority is located at depths requiring the application of in situ recovery technologies. Although a number of in situ recovery technologies exist, the steam assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) process has emerged as one of the most promising technologies to develop the in situ oil sands resources. During the SAGD operations, saturated steam is continuously injected into the oil sands reservoir, which induces pore pressure and stress variations. As a result, reservoir parameters and processes may also vary, particularly when tensile and shear failure occur. This geomechanical effect is obvious for oil sands material because oil sands have the in situ interlocked fabric. The conventional reservoir simulation generally does not take this coupled mechanism into consideration. Therefore, this research is to improve the reservoir simulation techniques of the SAGD process applied in the development of oil sands and heavy oil reservoirs. The analyses of the decoupled reservoir geomechanical simulation results show that the geomechanical behavior in SAGD has obvious impact on reservoir parameters, such as absolute permeability. The issues with the coupled reservoir geomechanical simulations of the SAGD process have been clarified and the permeability variations due to geomechanical behaviors in the SAGD process investigated. A methodology of sequentially coupled reservoir geomechanical simulation technique was developed based on the reservoir simulator, EXOTHERM, and the geomechanical simulator, FLAC. In addition, a representative geomechanical model of oil sands material was summarized in this research. Finally, this reservoir geomechanical simulation methodology was verified with the UTF Phase A SAGD project and applied in a SAGD operation with gas-over-bitumen geometry. Based on this methodology, the geomechanical effect on the SAGD production performance can be quantified. This research program involves the analyses of laboratory testing results obtained from literatures. However, no laboratory testing was conducted in the process of this research.
Integrating a Typhoon Event Database with an Optimal Flood Operation Model on the Real-Time Flood Control of the Tseng-Wen Reservoir

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Y. W.; Chang, L. C.

2012-04-01

Typhoons which normally bring a great amount of precipitation are the primary natural hazard in Taiwan during flooding season. Because the plentiful rainfall quantities brought by typhoons are normally stored for the usage of the next draught period, the determination of release strategies for flood operation of reservoirs which is required to simultaneously consider not only the impact of reservoir safety and the flooding damage in plain area but also for the water resource stored in the reservoir after typhoon becomes important. This study proposes a two-steps study process. First, this study develop an optimal flood operation model (OFOM) for the planning of flood control and also applies the OFOM on Tseng-wun reservoir and the downstream plain related to the reservoir. Second, integrating a typhoon event database with the OFOM mentioned above makes the proposed planning model have ability to deal with a real-time flood control problem and names as real-time flood operation model (RTFOM). Three conditions are considered in the proposed models, OFOM and RTFOM, include the safety of the reservoir itself, the reservoir storage after typhoons and the impact of flooding in the plain area. Besides, the flood operation guideline announced by government is also considered in the proposed models. The these conditions and the guideline can be formed as an optimization problem which is solved by the genetic algorithm (GA) in this study. Furthermore, a distributed runoff model, kinematic-wave geomorphic instantaneous unit hydrograph (KW-GIUH), and a river flow simulation model, HEC-RAS, are used to simulate the river water level of Tseng-wun basin in the plain area and the simulated level is shown as an index of the impact of flooding. Because the simulated levels are required to re-calculate iteratively in the optimization model, applying a recursive artificial neural network (recursive ANN) instead of the HEC-RAS model can significantly reduce the computational burden of the entire optimization problem. This study applies the developed methodology to Tseng-wun Reservoir. Forty typhoon events are collected as the historical database and six typhoon events are used to verify the proposed model. These typhoons include Typhoon Sepat and Typhoon Korsa in 2007 and Typhoon Kalmaegi, Typhoon Fung-Wong, Typhoon Sinlaku and Typhoon Jangmi in 2008. The results show that the proposed model can reduce the flood duration at the downstream area. For example, the real-time flood control model can reduce the flood duration by four and three hours for Typhoon Korsa and Typhoon Sinlaku respectively. This results indicate that the developed model can be a very useful tool for real-time flood control operation of reservoirs.
3D hybrid tectono-stochastic modeling of naturally fractured reservoir: Application of finite element method and stochastic simulation technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gholizadeh Doonechaly, N.; Rahman, S. S.

2012-05-01

Simulation of naturally fractured reservoirs offers significant challenges due to the lack of a methodology that can utilize field data. To date several methods have been proposed by authors to characterize naturally fractured reservoirs. Among them is the unfolding/folding method which offers some degree of accuracy in estimating the probability of the existence of fractures in a reservoir. Also there are statistical approaches which integrate all levels of field data to simulate the fracture network. This approach, however, is dependent on the availability of data sources, such as seismic attributes, core descriptions, well logs, etc. which often make it difficult to obtain field wide. In this study a hybrid tectono-stochastic simulation is proposed to characterize a naturally fractured reservoir. A finite element based model is used to simulate the tectonic event of folding and unfolding of a geological structure. A nested neuro-stochastic technique is used to develop the inter-relationship between the data and at the same time it utilizes the sequential Gaussian approach to analyze field data along with fracture probability data. This approach has the ability to overcome commonly experienced discontinuity of the data in both horizontal and vertical directions. This hybrid technique is used to generate a discrete fracture network of a specific Australian gas reservoir, Palm Valley in the Northern Territory. Results of this study have significant benefit in accurately describing fluid flow simulation and well placement for maximal hydrocarbon recovery.
Hydrology and Mosquito Population Dynamics around a Hydropower Reservoir in Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Endo, N.; Eltahir, E. A.

2013-12-01

Malaria is associated with dams because their reservoirs provide mosquitoes, the vector of malaria, with permanent breeding sites. The risk of contracting malaria is likely to be enhanced following the increasing trend of hydropower dam construction to satisfy the expanding energy needs in developing countries. A close examination of its adverse health impacts is critical in the design, construction, and operation phases. We will present results of extensive field studies in 2012 and 2013 around the Koka Reservoir, Ethiopia. The results uncover the importance of reservoir management especially after the rainy seasons. Furthermore, we show the capability of a newly modified hydrology, entomology and malaria transmission simulator, HYDREMATS (Bomblies et al, 2008), and its potential as a tool for evaluating environmental management strategies to control malaria. HYDREMATS was developed to represent how the hydrology in nearby villages is impacted by the reservoir system, and the role of different types of vector ecologies associated with different Anopheles mosquito species. The hydrology component of HYDREMATS simulates three different mosquito breeding habitats: rain-fed pools, groundwater pools, and shoreline water. The entomology component simulates the life cycles of An. funestus and An. arabiensis, the two main vectors around the reservoir. The model was calibrated over the 2012-2013 period. The impact of reservoir water level management on the mosquito population is explored based on numerical model simulations and field experiments.
A New Screening Methodology for Improved Oil Recovery Processes Using Soft-Computing Techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parada, Claudia; Ertekin, Turgay

2010-05-01

The first stage of production of any oil reservoir involves oil displacement by natural drive mechanisms such as solution gas drive, gas cap drive and gravity drainage. Typically, improved oil recovery (IOR) methods are applied to oil reservoirs that have been depleted naturally. In more recent years, IOR techniques are applied to reservoirs even before their natural energy drive is exhausted by primary depletion. Descriptive screening criteria for IOR methods are used to select the appropriate recovery technique according to the fluid and rock properties. This methodology helps in assessing the most suitable recovery process for field deployment of a candidate reservoir. However, the already published screening guidelines neither provide information about the expected reservoir performance nor suggest a set of project design parameters, which can be used towards the optimization of the process. In this study, artificial neural networks (ANN) are used to build a high-performance neuro-simulation tool for screening different improved oil recovery techniques: miscible injection (CO2 and N2), waterflooding and steam injection processes. The simulation tool consists of proxy models that implement a multilayer cascade feedforward back propagation network algorithm. The tool is intended to narrow the ranges of possible scenarios to be modeled using conventional simulation, reducing the extensive time and energy spent in dynamic reservoir modeling. A commercial reservoir simulator is used to generate the data to train and validate the artificial neural networks. The proxy models are built considering four different well patterns with different well operating conditions as the field design parameters. Different expert systems are developed for each well pattern. The screening networks predict oil production rate and cumulative oil production profiles for a given set of rock and fluid properties, and design parameters. The results of this study show that the networks are able to recognize the strong correlation between the displacement mechanism and the reservoir characteristics as they effectively forecast hydrocarbon production for different types of reservoir undergoing diverse recovery processes. The artificial neuron networks are able to capture the similarities between different displacement mechanisms as same network architecture is successfully applied in both CO2 and N2 injection. The neuro-simulation application tool is built within a graphical user interface to facilitate the display of the results. The developed soft-computing tool offers an innovative approach to design a variety of efficient and feasible IOR processes by using artificial intelligence. The tool provides appropriate guidelines to the reservoir engineer, it facilitates the appraisal of diverse field development strategies for oil reservoirs, and it helps to reduce the number of scenarios evaluated with conventional reservoir simulation.
Gas hydrate saturations estimated from pore-and fracture-filling gas hydrate reservoirs in the Qilian Mountain permafrost, China.

PubMed

Xiao, Kun; Zou, Changchun; Lu, Zhenquan; Deng, Juzhi

2017-11-24

Accurate calculation of gas hydrate saturation is an important aspect of gas hydrate resource evaluation. The effective medium theory (EMT model), the velocity model based on two-phase medium theory (TPT model), and the two component laminated media model (TCLM model), are adopted to investigate the characteristics of acoustic velocity and gas hydrate saturation of pore- and fracture-filling reservoirs in the Qilian Mountain permafrost, China. The compressional wave (P-wave) velocity simulated by the EMT model is more consistent with actual log data than the TPT model in the pore-filling reservoir. The range of the gas hydrate saturation of the typical pore-filling reservoir in hole DKXX-13 is 13.0~85.0%, and the average value of the gas hydrate saturation is 61.9%, which is in accordance with the results by the standard Archie equation and actual core test. The P-wave phase velocity simulated by the TCLM model can be transformed directly into the P-wave transverse velocity in a fracture-filling reservoir. The range of the gas hydrate saturation of the typical fracture-filling reservoir in hole DKXX-19 is 14.1~89.9%, and the average value of the gas hydrate saturation is 69.4%, which is in accordance with actual core test results.
Three-dimensional geomechanical simulation of reservoir compaction and implications for well failures in the Belridge diatomite

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fredrich, J.T.; Argueello, J.G.; Thorne, B.J.

1996-11-01

This paper describes an integrated geomechanics analysis of well casing damage induced by compaction of the diatomite reservoir at the Belridge Field, California. Historical data from the five field operators were compiled and analyzed to determine correlations between production, injection, subsidence, and well failures. The results of this analysis were used to develop a three-dimensional geomechanical model of South Belridge, Section 33 to examine the diatomite reservoir and overburden response to production and injection at the interwell scale and to evaluate potential well failure mechanisms. The time-dependent reservoir pressure field was derived from a three-dimensional finite difference reservoir simulation andmore » used as input to three-dimensional non-linear finite element geomechanical simulations. The reservoir simulation included -200 wells and covered 18 years of production and injection. The geomechanical simulation contained 437,100 nodes and 374,130 elements with the overburden and reservoir discretized into 13 layers with independent material properties. The results reveal the evolution of the subsurface stress and displacement fields with production and injection and suggest strategies for reducing the occurrence of well casing damage.« less

Three-dimensional geomechanical simulation of reservoir compaction and implications for well failures in the Belridge diatomite

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fredrich, J.T.; Argueello, J.G.; Thorne, B.J.

1996-12-31

This paper describes an integrated geomechanics analysis of well casing damage induced by compaction of the diatomite reservoir at the Belridge Field, California. Historical data from the five field operators were compiled and analyzed to determine correlations between production, injection, subsidence, and well failures. The results of this analysis were used to develop a three-dimensional geomechanical model of South Belridge, Section 33 to examine the diatomite reservoir and overburden response to production and injection at the interwell scale and to evaluate potential well failure mechanisms. The time-dependent reservoir pressure field was derived from a three-dimensional finite difference reservoir simulation andmore » used as input to three-dimensional non-linear finite element geomechanical simulations. The reservoir simulation included approximately 200 wells and covered 18 years of production and injection. The geomechanical simulation contained 437,100 nodes and 374,130 elements with the overburden and reservoir discretized into 13 layers with independent material properties. The results reveal the evolution of the subsurface stress and displacement fields with production and injection and suggest strategies for reducing the occurrence of well casing damage.« less
A new model for simulating spring discharge recession and estimating effective porosity of karst aquifers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Bin; Ye, Ming; Dong, Shuning; Dai, Zhenxue; Pei, Yongzhen

2018-07-01

Quantitative analysis of recession curves of karst spring hydrographs is a vital tool for understanding karst hydrology and inferring hydraulic properties of karst aquifers. This paper presents a new model for simulating karst spring recession curves. The new model has the following characteristics: (1) the model considers two separate but hydraulically connected reservoirs: matrix reservoir and conduit reservoir; (2) the model separates karst spring hydrograph recession into three stages: conduit-drainage stage, mixed-drainage stage (with both conduit drainage and matrix drainage), and matrix-drainage stage; and (3) in the mixed-drainage stage, the model uses multiple conduit layers to present different levels of conduit development. The new model outperforms the classical Mangin model and the recently developed Fiorillo model for simulating observed discharge at the Madison Blue Spring located in northern Florida. This is attributed to the latter two characteristics of the new model. Based on the new model, a method is developed for estimating effective porosity of the matrix and conduit reservoirs for the three drainage stages. The estimated porosity values are consistent with measured matrix porosity at the study site and with estimated conduit porosity reported in literature. The new model for simulating karst spring hydrograph recession is mathematically general, and can be applied to a wide range of karst spring hydrographs to understand groundwater flow in karst aquifers. The limitations of the model are discussed at the end of this paper.
Water Pollution Prediction in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area and Countermeasures for Sustainable Development of the Water Environment.

PubMed

Li, Yinghui; Huang, Shuaijin; Qu, Xuexin

2017-10-27

The Three Gorges Project was implemented in 1994 to promote sustainable water resource use and development of the water environment in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area (hereafter "Reservoir Area"). However, massive discharge of wastewater along the river threatens these goals; therefore, this study employs a grey prediction model (GM) to predict the annual emissions of primary pollution sources, including industrial wastewater, domestic wastewater, and oily and domestic wastewater from ships, that influence the Three Gorges Reservoir Area water environment. First, we optimize the initial values of a traditional GM (1,1) model, and build a new GM (1,1) model that minimizes the sum of squares of the relative simulation errors. Second, we use the new GM (1,1) model to simulate historical annual emissions data for the four pollution sources and thereby test the effectiveness of the model. Third, we predict the annual emissions of the four pollution sources in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area for a future period. The prediction results reveal the annual emission trends for the major wastewater types, and indicate the primary sources of water pollution in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area. Based on our predictions, we suggest several countermeasures against water pollution and towards the sustainable development of the water environment in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area.
Simulation of land use change in the three gorges reservoir area based on CART-CA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Min

2018-05-01

This study proposes a new method to simulate spatiotemporal complex multiple land uses by using classification and regression tree algorithm (CART) based CA model. In this model, we use classification and regression tree algorithm to calculate land class conversion probability, and combine neighborhood factor, random factor to extract cellular transformation rules. The overall Kappa coefficient is 0.8014 and the overall accuracy is 0.8821 in the land dynamic simulation results of the three gorges reservoir area from 2000 to 2010, and the simulation results are satisfactory.
Estimating Western U.S. Reservoir Sedimentation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bensching, L.; Livneh, B.; Greimann, B. P.

2017-12-01

Reservoir sedimentation is a long-term problem for water management across the Western U.S. Observations of sedimentation are limited to reservoir surveys that are costly and infrequent, with many reservoirs having only two or fewer surveys. This work aims to apply a recently developed ensemble of sediment algorithms to estimate reservoir sedimentation over several western U.S. reservoirs. The sediment algorithms include empirical, conceptual, stochastic, and processes based approaches and are coupled with a hydrologic modeling framework. Preliminary results showed that the more complex and processed based algorithms performed better in predicting high sediment flux values and in a basin transferability experiment. However, more testing and validation is required to confirm sediment model skill. This work is carried out in partnership with the Bureau of Reclamation with the goal of evaluating the viability of reservoir sediment yield prediction across the western U.S. using a multi-algorithm approach. Simulations of streamflow and sediment fluxes are validated against observed discharges, as well as a Reservoir Sedimentation Information database that is being developed by the US Army Corps of Engineers. Specific goals of this research include (i) quantifying whether inter-algorithm differences consistently capture observational variability; (ii) identifying whether certain categories of models consistently produce the best results, (iii) assessing the expected sedimentation life-span of several western U.S. reservoirs through long-term simulations.
Enhancing the revision of the static geological model of the Stuttgart Formation at the Ketzin pilot site by integration of reservoir simulations and 3D seismics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kempka, Thomas; Norden, Ben; Ivanova, Alexandra; Lüth, Stefan

2017-04-01

Pilot-scale carbon dioxide storage has been performed at the Ketzin pilot site in Germany from June 2007 to August 2013 with about 67 kt of CO2 injected into the Upper Triassic Stuttgart Formation. In this context, the main aims focussed on verification of the technical feasibility of CO2 storage in saline aquifers and development of efficient strategies for CO2 behaviour monitoring and prediction. A static geological model has been already developed at an early stage of this undertaking, and continuously revised with the availability of additional geological and operational data as well as by means of reservoir simulations, allowing for revisions in line with the efforts to achieve a solid history match in view of well bottomhole pressures and CO2 arrival times at the observation wells. Three 3D seismic campaigns followed the 2005 3D seismic baseline in 2009, 2012 and 2015. Consequently, the interpreted seismic data on spatial CO2 thickness distributions in the storage reservoir as well as seismic CO2 detection limits from recent conformity studies enabled us to enhance the previous history-matching results by adding a spatial component to the previous observations, limited to points only. For that purpose, we employed the latest version of the history-matched static geological reservoir model and revised the gridding scheme of the reservoir simulation model by coarsening and introducing local grid refinements at the areas of interest. Further measures to ensure computational efficiency included the application of the MUFITS reservoir simulator (BLACKOIL module) with PVT data derived from the MUFITS GASSTORE module. Observations considered in the inverse model calibration for a simulation time of about 5 years included well bottomhole pressures, CO2 arrival times and seismically determined CO2 thickness maps for 2009 and 2012. Pilot points were employed by means of the PEST++ inverse simulation framework to apply permeability multipliers, interpolated by kriging to the reservoir simulation model grid. Our results exhibit an excellent well bottomhole pressure match, good agreement with the observed CO2 arrival times at the observation wells, a reasonable agreement of the spatial CO2 distribution with the CO2 thickness maps derived from the 2009, 2012 and 2015 3D seismic campaigns as well as a good agreement with hydraulic tests conducted before CO2 injection. Hence, the inversely determined permeability multipliers provide an excellent basis for further revision of the static geological model of the Stuttgart Formation.
Optimizing for Large Planar Fractures in Multistage Horizontal Wells in Enhanced Geothermal Systems Using a Coupled Fluid and Geomechanics Simulator

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hu, Xiexiaomen; Tutuncu, Azra; Eustes, Alfred

Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) could potentially use technological advancements in coupled implementation of horizontal drilling and multistage hydraulic fracturing techniques in tight oil and shale gas reservoirs along with improvements in reservoir simulation techniques to design and create EGS reservoirs. In this study, a commercial hydraulic fracture simulation package, Mangrove by Schlumberger, was used in an EGS model with largely distributed pre-existing natural fractures to model fracture propagation during the creation of a complex fracture network. The main goal of this study is to investigate optimum treatment parameters in creating multiple large, planar fractures to hydraulically connect a horizontal injectionmore » well and a horizontal production well that are 10,000 ft. deep and spaced 500 ft. apart from each other. A matrix of simulations for this study was carried out to determine the influence of reservoir and treatment parameters on preventing (or aiding) the creation of large planar fractures. The reservoir parameters investigated during the matrix simulations include the in-situ stress state and properties of the natural fracture set such as the primary and secondary fracture orientation, average fracture length, and average fracture spacing. The treatment parameters investigated during the simulations were fluid viscosity, proppant concentration, pump rate, and pump volume. A final simulation with optimized design parameters was performed. The optimized design simulation indicated that high fluid viscosity, high proppant concentration, large pump volume and pump rate tend to minimize the complexity of the created fracture network. Additionally, a reservoir with 'friendly' formation characteristics such as large stress anisotropy, natural fractures set parallel to the maximum horizontal principal stress (SHmax), and large natural fracture spacing also promote the creation of large planar fractures while minimizing fracture complexity.« less
Simulation of rain floods on Willow Creek, Valley County, Montana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parrett, Charles

1986-01-01

The Hydrologic Engineering Center-1 rainfall-runoff simulation model was used to assess the effects of a system of reservoirs and waterspreaders in the 550-sq mi Willow Creek Basin in northeastern Montana. For simulation purposes, the basin was subdivided into 100 subbasins containing 84 reservoirs and 14 waterspreaders. Precipitation input to the model was a 24-hr duration, 100-yr frequency synthetic rainstorm developed from National Weather Service data. Infiltration and detention losses were computed using the U.S. Soil Conservation Service Curve Number concept, and the dimensionless unit hydrograph developed by the U.S. Soil Conservation Service was used to compute runoff. Channel and reservoir flow routing was based on the modified Puls storage routing procedure. Waterspreaders were simulated by assuming that each dike in a spreader system functions as a reservoir, with only an emergency spillway discharging directly into the next dike. Waterspreader and reservoir volumes were calculated from surface areas measured on maps. The first simulation run was made with no structures in place, and resulted in a 100-yr frequency peak at the mouth of Willow Creek of 22,700 cu ft/sec. With all structures in place, the 100-yr frequency peak was decreased by 74% to 5,870 cu ft/sec. (USGS)
Fena Valley Reservoir watershed and water-balance model updates and expansion of watershed modeling to southern Guam

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rosa, Sarah N.; Hay, Lauren E.

2017-12-01

In 2014, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Defense’s Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program, initiated a project to evaluate the potential impacts of projected climate-change on Department of Defense installations that rely on Guam’s water resources. A major task of that project was to develop a watershed model of southern Guam and a water-balance model for the Fena Valley Reservoir. The southern Guam watershed model provides a physically based tool to estimate surface-water availability in southern Guam. The U.S. Geological Survey’s Precipitation Runoff Modeling System, PRMS-IV, was used to construct the watershed model. The PRMS-IV code simulates different parts of the hydrologic cycle based on a set of user-defined modules. The southern Guam watershed model was constructed by updating a watershed model for the Fena Valley watersheds, and expanding the modeled area to include all of southern Guam. The Fena Valley watershed model was combined with a previously developed, but recently updated and recalibrated Fena Valley Reservoir water-balance model.Two important surface-water resources for the U.S. Navy and the citizens of Guam were modeled in this study; the extended model now includes the Ugum River watershed and improves upon the previous model of the Fena Valley watersheds. Surface water from the Ugum River watershed is diverted and treated for drinking water, and the Fena Valley watersheds feed the largest surface-water reservoir on Guam. The southern Guam watershed model performed “very good,” according to the criteria of Moriasi and others (2007), in the Ugum River watershed above Talofofo Falls with monthly Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency statistic values of 0.97 for the calibration period and 0.93 for the verification period (a value of 1.0 represents perfect model fit). In the Fena Valley watershed, monthly simulated streamflow volumes from the watershed model compared reasonably well with the measured values for the gaging stations on the Almagosa, Maulap, and Imong Rivers—tributaries to the Fena Valley Reservoir—with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency values of 0.87 or higher. The southern Guam watershed model simulated the total volume of the critical dry season (January to May) streamflow for the entire simulation period within –0.54 percent at the Almagosa River, within 6.39 percent at the Maulap River, and within 6.06 percent at the Imong River.The recalibrated water-balance model of the Fena Valley Reservoir generally simulated monthly reservoir storage volume with reasonable accuracy. For the calibration and verification periods, errors in end-of-month reservoir-storage volume ranged from 6.04 percent (284.6 acre-feet or 92.7 million gallons) to –5.70 percent (–240.8 acre-feet or –78.5 million gallons). Monthly simulation bias ranged from –0.48 percent for the calibration period to 0.87 percent for the verification period; relative error ranged from –0.60 to 0.88 percent for the calibration and verification periods, respectively. The small bias indicated that the model did not consistently overestimate or underestimate reservoir storage volume.In the entirety of southern Guam, the watershed model has a “satisfactory” to “very good” rating when simulating monthly mean streamflow for all but one of the gaged watersheds during the verification period. The southern Guam watershed model uses a more sophisticated climate-distribution scheme than the older model to make use of the sparse climate data, as well as includes updated land-cover parameters and the capability to simulate closed depression areas.The new Fena Valley Reservoir water-balance model is useful as an updated tool to forecast short-term changes in the surface-water resources of Guam. Furthermore, the now spatially complete southern Guam watershed model can be used to evaluate changes in streamflow and recharge owing to climate or land-cover changes. These are substantial improvements to the previous models of the Fena Valley watershed and Reservoir. Datasets associated with this report are available as a U.S. Geological Survey data release (Rosa and Hay, 2017; DOI:10.5066/F7HH6HV4).
Reservoir model for Hillsboro gas storage field management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Udegbunam, Emmanuel O.; Kemppainen, Curt; Morgan, Jim; ,

1995-01-01

A 3-dimensional reservoir model is used to understand the behavior of the Hillsboro Gas Storage Field and to investigate the field's performance under various future development. Twenty-two years of the gas storage reservoir history, comprising the initial gas bubble development and seasonal gas injection and production cycles, are examined with a full-field, gas water, reservoir simulation model. The results suggest that the gas-water front is already in the vicinity of the west observation well that increasing the field's total gas-in-place volume would cause gas to migrate beyond the east, north and west observation well. They also suggest that storage enlargement through gas injection into the lower layers may not prevent gas migration. Moreover, the results suggest that the addition of strategically-located new wells would boost the simulated gas deliverabilities.
Mathematical and Numerical Techniques in Energy and Environmental Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Z.; Ewing, R. E.

Mathematical models have been widely used to predict, understand, and optimize many complex physical processes, from semiconductor or pharmaceutical design to large-scale applications such as global weather models to astrophysics. In particular, simulation of environmental effects of air pollution is extensive. Here we address the need for using similar models to understand the fate and transport of groundwater contaminants and to design in situ remediation strategies. Three basic problem areas need to be addressed in the modeling and simulation of the flow of groundwater contamination. First, one obtains an effective model to describe the complex fluid/fluid and fluid/rock interactions that control the transport of contaminants in groundwater. This includes the problem of obtaining accurate reservoir descriptions at various length scales and modeling the effects of this heterogeneity in the reservoir simulators. Next, one develops accurate discretization techniques that retain the important physical properties of the continuous models. Finally, one develops efficient numerical solution algorithms that utilize the potential of the emerging computing architectures. We will discuss recent advances and describe the contribution of each of the papers in this book in these three areas. Keywords: reservoir simulation, mathematical models, partial differential equations, numerical algorithms
Application of particle and lattice codes to simulation of hydraulic fracturing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Damjanac, Branko; Detournay, Christine; Cundall, Peter A.

2016-04-01

With the development of unconventional oil and gas reservoirs over the last 15 years, the understanding and capability to model the propagation of hydraulic fractures in inhomogeneous and naturally fractured reservoirs has become very important for the petroleum industry (but also for some other industries like mining and geothermal). Particle-based models provide advantages over other models and solutions for the simulation of fracturing of rock masses that cannot be assumed to be continuous and homogeneous. It has been demonstrated (Potyondy and Cundall Int J Rock Mech Min Sci Geomech Abstr 41:1329-1364, 2004) that particle models based on a simple force criterion for fracture propagation match theoretical solutions and scale effects derived using the principles of linear elastic fracture mechanics (LEFM). The challenge is how to apply these models effectively (i.e., with acceptable models sizes and computer run times) to the coupled hydro-mechanical problems of relevant time and length scales for practical field applications (i.e., reservoir scale and hours of injection time). A formulation of a fully coupled hydro-mechanical particle-based model and its application to the simulation of hydraulic treatment of unconventional reservoirs are presented. Model validation by comparing with available analytical asymptotic solutions (penny-shape crack) and some examples of field application (e.g., interaction with DFN) are also included.
Numerical schemes for anomalous diffusion of single-phase fluids in porous media

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Awotunde, Abeeb A.; Ghanam, Ryad A.; Al-Homidan, Suliman S.; Tatar, Nasser-eddine

2016-10-01

Simulation of fluid flow in porous media is an indispensable part of oil and gas reservoir management. Accurate prediction of reservoir performance and profitability of investment rely on our ability to model the flow behavior of reservoir fluids. Over the years, numerical reservoir simulation models have been based mainly on solutions to the normal diffusion of fluids in the porous reservoir. Recently, however, it has been documented that fluid flow in porous media does not always follow strictly the normal diffusion process. Small deviations from normal diffusion, called anomalous diffusion, have been reported in some experimental studies. Such deviations can be caused by different factors such as the viscous state of the fluid, the fractal nature of the porous media and the pressure pulse in the system. In this work, we present explicit and implicit numerical solutions to the anomalous diffusion of single-phase fluids in heterogeneous reservoirs. An analytical solution is used to validate the numerical solution to the simple homogeneous case. The conventional wellbore flow model is modified to account for anomalous behavior. Example applications are used to show the behavior of wellbore and wellblock pressures during the single-phase anomalous flow of fluids in the reservoirs considered.
Hydraulic fracture propagation modeling and data-based fracture identification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Jing

Successful shale gas and tight oil production is enabled by the engineering innovation of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing. Hydraulically induced fractures will most likely deviate from the bi-wing planar pattern and generate complex fracture networks due to mechanical interactions and reservoir heterogeneity, both of which render the conventional fracture simulators insufficient to characterize the fractured reservoir. Moreover, in reservoirs with ultra-low permeability, the natural fractures are widely distributed, which will result in hydraulic fractures branching and merging at the interface and consequently lead to the creation of more complex fracture networks. Thus, developing a reliable hydraulic fracturing simulator, including both mechanical interaction and fluid flow, is critical in maximizing hydrocarbon recovery and optimizing fracture/well design and completion strategy in multistage horizontal wells. A novel fully coupled reservoir flow and geomechanics model based on the dual-lattice system is developed to simulate multiple nonplanar fractures' propagation in both homogeneous and heterogeneous reservoirs with or without pre-existing natural fractures. Initiation, growth, and coalescence of the microcracks will lead to the generation of macroscopic fractures, which is explicitly mimicked by failure and removal of bonds between particles from the discrete element network. This physics-based modeling approach leads to realistic fracture patterns without using the empirical rock failure and fracture propagation criteria required in conventional continuum methods. Based on this model, a sensitivity study is performed to investigate the effects of perforation spacing, in-situ stress anisotropy, rock properties (Young's modulus, Poisson's ratio, and compressive strength), fluid properties, and natural fracture properties on hydraulic fracture propagation. In addition, since reservoirs are buried thousands of feet below the surface, the parameters used in the reservoir flow simulator have large uncertainty. Those biased and uncertain parameters will result in misleading oil and gas recovery predictions. The Ensemble Kalman Filter is used to estimate and update both the state variables (pressure and saturations) and uncertain reservoir parameters (permeability). In order to directly incorporate spatial information such as fracture location and formation heterogeneity into the algorithm, a new covariance matrix method is proposed. This new method has been applied to a simplified single-phase reservoir and a complex black oil reservoir with complex structures to prove its capability in calibrating the reservoir parameters.
Validation of chemistry models employed in a particle simulation method

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Haas, Brian L.; Mcdonald, Jeffrey D.

1991-01-01

The chemistry models employed in a statistical particle simulation method, as implemented in the Intel iPSC/860 multiprocessor computer, are validated and applied. Chemical relaxation of five-species air in these reservoirs involves 34 simultaneous dissociation, recombination, and atomic-exchange reactions. The reaction rates employed in the analytic solutions are obtained from Arrhenius experimental correlations as functions of temperature for adiabatic gas reservoirs in thermal equilibrium. Favorable agreement with the analytic solutions validates the simulation when applied to relaxation of O2 toward equilibrium in reservoirs dominated by dissociation and recombination, respectively, and when applied to relaxation of air in the temperature range 5000 to 30,000 K. A flow of O2 over a circular cylinder at high Mach number is simulated to demonstrate application of the method to multidimensional reactive flows.
The Contribution of Reservoirs to Global Land Surface Water Storage Variations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhou, Tian; Nijssen, Bart; Gao, Huilin

Man-made reservoirs play a key role in the terrestrial water system. They alter water fluxes at the land surface and impact surface water storage through water management regulations for diverse purposes such as irrigation, municipal water supply, hydropower generation, and flood control. Although most developed countries have established sophisticated observing systems for many variables in the land surface water cycle, long-term and consistent records of reservoir storage are much more limited and not always shared. Furthermore, most land surface hydrological models do not represent the effects of water management activities. Here, the contribution of reservoirs to seasonal water storage variationsmore » is investigated using a large-scale water management model to simulate the effects of reservoir management at basin and continental scales. The model was run from 1948 to 2010 at a spatial resolution of 0.258 latitude–longitude. A total of 166 of the largest reservoirs in the world with a total capacity of about 3900 km3 (nearly 60%of the globally integrated reservoir capacity) were simulated. The global reservoir storage time series reflects the massive expansion of global reservoir capacity; over 30 000 reservoirs have been constructed during the past half century, with a mean absolute interannual storage variation of 89 km3. The results indicate that the average reservoir-induced seasonal storage variation is nearly 700 km3 or about 10%of the global reservoir storage. For some river basins, such as the Yellow River, seasonal reservoir storage variations can be as large as 72%of combined snow water equivalent and soil moisture storage.« less
Simulated effects of proposed reservoir-development alternatives on streamflow quantity in the White River, Colorado and Utah

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kuhn, Gerhard; Ellis, S.R.

1984-01-01

Numerous reservoirs have been proposed for the White River basin in Colorado and Utah, primarily to provide water for oil-shale development. A multireservoir-flow model was used to simulate the effects of streamflow withdrawal at four of the proposed reservoirs using historical streamflow data from the 1932-81 water years. The proposed reservoirs considered in the study were Avery, Powell Park, Taylor Draw, and White River Reservoirs; construction of Taylor Draw Dam was completed during the study. Annual streamflow depletions from the White River ranging from about 93,000 to 226,000 acre-feet were simulated for the 50 year period. Simulated streamflow throughout the year generally became smaller and more constant as streamflow throughout the year generally became smaller and more constant as streamflow depletion increased. Minimum streamflow requirements would not have been met for a maximum of 13 years and water-use requirements associated with the proposed reservoirs would not have been met for a maximum of 3 years. The current water-use pattern, which depletes about 40,000 acre-feet per year and is dominated by irrigation of hay meadows and pastureland, was maintained in the simulation. Relations between reservoir active capacity and yield applicable to the White River also were developed. These relations show that reservoir storage of about 400,000 acre-feet is the maximum practicable for the White River. (USGS)
INCREASING HEAVY OIL RESERVES IN THE WILMINGTON OIL FIELD THROUGH ADVANCED RESERVOIR CHARACTERIZATION AND THERMAL PRODUCTION TECHNOLOGIES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Scott Hara

2000-02-18

The project involves using advanced reservoir characterization and thermal production technologies to improve thermal recovery techniques and lower operating and capital costs in a slope and basin clastic (SBC) reservoir in the Wilmington field, Los Angeles Co., CA. Through March 1999, project work has been completed related to data preparation, basic reservoir engineering, developing a deterministic three dimensional (3-D) geologic model, a 3-D deterministic reservoir simulation model, and a rock-log model, well drilling and completions, and surface facilities. Work is continuing on the stochastic geologic model, developing a 3-D stochastic thermal reservoir simulation model of the Fault Block IIA Tarmore » (Tar II-A) Zone, and operational work and research studies to prevent thermal-related formation compaction. Thermal-related formation compaction is a concern of the project team due to observed surface subsidence in the local area above the steamflood project. Last quarter on January 12, the steamflood project lost its inexpensive steam source from the Harbor Cogeneration Plant as a result of the recent deregulation of electrical power rates in California. An operational plan was developed and implemented to mitigate the effects of the two situations. Seven water injection wells were placed in service in November and December 1998 on the flanks of the Phase 1 steamflood area to pressure up the reservoir to fill up the existing steam chest. Intensive reservoir engineering and geomechanics studies are continuing to determine the best ways to shut down the steamflood operations in Fault Block II while minimizing any future surface subsidence. The new 3-D deterministic thermal reservoir simulator model is being used to provide sensitivity cases to optimize production, steam injection, future flank cold water injection and reservoir temperature and pressure. According to the model, reservoir fill up of the steam chest at the current injection rate of 28,000 BPD and gross and net oil production rates of 7,700 BPD and 750 BOPD (injection to production ratio of 4) will occur in October 1999. At that time, the reservoir should act more like a waterflood and production and cold water injection can be operated at lower net injection rates to be determined. Modeling runs developed this quarter found that varying individual well injection rates to meet added production and local pressure problems by sub-zone could reduce steam chest fill-up by up to one month.« less
Application of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to predict the impact of best management practices in Jatigede Catchment Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ridwansyah, Iwan; Fakhrudin, M.; Wibowo, Hendro; Yulianti, Meti

2018-02-01

Cimanuk watershed is one of the national priority watersheds for rehabilitation considering its critical condition. In this area, Jatigede Reservoir operates, which is the second largest reservoir in Indonesia, after Jatiluhur Reservoir. The reservoir performs several functions, including flood control, irrigation for 90.000 ha of rice fields, water supply of 3.500 litres per second, and power generation of 110 MW. In 2004 the Jatigede Reservoir catchment area had a critical land area of 40.875 ha (28% of the catchment area). The sedimentation rate in Cimanuk River at Eretan station shows a high rate (5.32 mm/year), which potentially decreases the function of Jatigede Reservoir. Therefore, a strategy of Best Management Practice’s (BMP’s) is required to mitigate the problem by using SWAT hydrology modelling. The aim of this study is to examine the impact of BMP’s on surface runoff and sediment yield in Jatigede Reservoir Catchment Area. Simulations were conducted using land use in 2011. The results of this study suggest that SWAT model is considered as a reasonable modelling of BMP’s simulation concerning Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficients (0.71). The simulation is using terraces, silt pit, and dam trenches as BMP’s techniques. The BMP’s application can reduce surface runoff from 99.7 mm to 75.8 mm, and decrease sediment yield from 61.9 ton/ha/year to 40.8 ton/ha/year.
Simulating reservoir lithologies by an actively conditioned Markov chain model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, Runhai; Luthi, Stefan M.; Gisolf, Dries

2018-06-01

The coupled Markov chain model can be used to simulate reservoir lithologies between wells, by conditioning them on the observed data in the cored wells. However, with this method, only the state at the same depth as the current cell is going to be used for conditioning, which may be a problem if the geological layers are dipping. This will cause the simulated lithological layers to be broken or to become discontinuous across the reservoir. In order to address this problem, an actively conditioned process is proposed here, in which a tolerance angle is predefined. The states contained in the region constrained by the tolerance angle will be employed for conditioning in the horizontal chain first, after which a coupling concept with the vertical chain is implemented. In order to use the same horizontal transition matrix for different future states, the tolerance angle has to be small. This allows the method to work in reservoirs without complex structures caused by depositional processes or tectonic deformations. Directional artefacts in the modeling process are avoided through a careful choice of the simulation path. The tolerance angle and dipping direction of the strata can be obtained from a correlation between wells, or from seismic data, which are available in most hydrocarbon reservoirs, either by interpretation or by inversion that can also assist the construction of a horizontal probability matrix.

Water Pollution Prediction in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area and Countermeasures for Sustainable Development of the Water Environment

PubMed Central

Huang, Shuaijin; Qu, Xuexin

2017-01-01

The Three Gorges Project was implemented in 1994 to promote sustainable water resource use and development of the water environment in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area (hereafter “Reservoir Area”). However, massive discharge of wastewater along the river threatens these goals; therefore, this study employs a grey prediction model (GM) to predict the annual emissions of primary pollution sources, including industrial wastewater, domestic wastewater, and oily and domestic wastewater from ships, that influence the Three Gorges Reservoir Area water environment. First, we optimize the initial values of a traditional GM (1,1) model, and build a new GM (1,1) model that minimizes the sum of squares of the relative simulation errors. Second, we use the new GM (1,1) model to simulate historical annual emissions data for the four pollution sources and thereby test the effectiveness of the model. Third, we predict the annual emissions of the four pollution sources in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area for a future period. The prediction results reveal the annual emission trends for the major wastewater types, and indicate the primary sources of water pollution in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area. Based on our predictions, we suggest several countermeasures against water pollution and towards the sustainable development of the water environment in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area. PMID:29077006
An Equivalent Fracture Modeling Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Shaohua; Zhang, Shujuan; Yu, Gaoming; Xu, Aiyun

2017-12-01

3D fracture network model is built based on discrete fracture surfaces, which are simulated based on fracture length, dip, aperture, height and so on. The interesting area of Wumishan Formation of Renqiu buried hill reservoir is about 57 square kilometer and the thickness of target strata is more than 2000 meters. In addition with great fracture density, the fracture simulation and upscaling of discrete fracture network model of Wumishan Formation are very intense computing. In order to solve this problem, a method of equivalent fracture modeling is proposed. First of all, taking the fracture interpretation data obtained from imaging logging and conventional logging as the basic data, establish the reservoir level model, and then under the constraint of reservoir level model, take fault distance analysis model as the second variable, establish fracture density model by Sequential Gaussian Simulation method. Increasing the width, height and length of fracture, at the same time decreasing its density in order to keep the similar porosity and permeability after upscaling discrete fracture network model. In this way, the fracture model of whole interesting area can be built within an accepted time.
Mountain Island Lake, North Carolina; analysis of ambient conditions and simulation of hydrodynamics, constituent transport, and water-quality characteristics, 1996–97

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bales, Jerad D.; Sarver, Kathleen M.; Giorgino, Mary J.

2001-01-01

Mountain Island Lake is an impoundment of the Catawba River in North Carolina and supplies drinking water to more than 600,000 people in Charlotte, Gastonia, Mount Holly, and several other communities. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Charlotte-Mecklenburg Utilities, conducted an investigation of the reservoir to characterize hydrologic and water-quality conditions and to develop and apply a simulation model to predict the response of the reservoir to changes in constituent loadings or the flow regime.During 1996–97, flows into Mountain Island Lake were dominated by releases from Cowans Ford Dam on Lake Norman, with more than 85 percent of the total inflow to the reservoir coming from Lake Norman. Riverbend Steam Station discharges accounted for about 12 percent of the inflows to the reservoir, and inflows from tributary streams contributed less than 1.5 percent of the total inflows. Releases through Mountain Island Dam accounted for about 81 percent of outflows from the reservoir, while Riverbend Steam Station withdrawals, which were equal to discharge from the facility, constituted about 13 percent of the reservoir withdrawals. About 5.5 percent of the withdrawals from the reservoir were for water supply.Strong thermal stratification was seldom observed in Mountain Island Lake during April 1996-September 1997. As a result, dissolved-oxygen concentrations were only infrequently less than 4 milligrams per liter, and seldom less than 5 milligrams per liter throughout the entire reservoir, including the coves. The Riverbend Steam Station thermal discharge had a pronounced effect on surface-water temperatures near the outfall.McDowell Creek, which drains to McDowell Creek cove, receives treated wastewater from a large municipal facility and has exhibited signs of poor water-quality conditions in the past. During April 1996-September 1997, concentrations of nitrate, ammonia, total phosphorus, and chlorophyll a were higher in McDowell Creek cove than elsewhere throughout the reservoir. Nevertheless, the highest chlorophyll a concentration measured during the study was 13 micrograms per liter—well below the North Carolina ambient water-quality standard of 40 micrograms per liter. In the mainstem of the reservoir, near-bottom ammonia concentrations occasionally were greater than near-surface concentrations. However, the relatively large top-to-bottom differences in ammonia and phosphorus that have been observed in other Catawba River reservoirs were not present in Mountain Island Lake.External loadings of suspended solids, nitrogen, phosphorus, and biochemical oxygen demand were determined for May 1996-April 1997. Flows through Cowans Ford Dam contributed more than 80 percent of the biochemical oxygen demand and nitrogen load to the reservoir, with McDowell Creek contributing about 15 percent of the biochemical oxygen demand load. In contrast, McDowell Creek contributed about half of the phosphorus load to the reservoir, while inflows through Cowans Ford Dam contributed about one-fourth of the phosphorus load, and the McDowell Creek wastewater-treatment plant contributed about 15 percent of the total phosphorus load. The remainder of the phosphorus loadings came from Gar Creek and the discharge from the Riverbend ash settling pond.Mountain Island Lake is a relatively small (11.3-square-kilometer surface area) impoundment. An area of 181 square kilometers drains directly to the reservoir, but much of this area is undergoing development. In addition, the reservoir receives treated effluent from a municipal wastewater-treatment facility.The two-dimensional, laterally averaged model CE-QUAL-W2 was applied to Mountain Island Lake. The model was configured to simulate water level, water temperature, and 12 water-quality constituents. The model included the mainstem, four coves, three point-source discharges, and three withdrawals.Simulated water levels generally were within 10 centimeters of measured values, indicating a good calibration of the water balance for the reservoir. The root-mean-square difference between measured and simulated water temperatures was about 1 to 1.5 degrees Celsius, and vertical distributions of water temperature were accurately simulated in both the mainstem and coves.Seasonal and spatial patterns of nitrate, ammonia, orthophosphorus, and chlorophyll a were reasonably reproduced by the water-quality model. Because of the absence of the denitrification process in the model formulation, nitrate concentrations typically were overpredicted. Simulated and measured ammonia concentrations seldom differed by more than 0.01 milligram per liter, and simulations of seasonal fluctuations in chlorophyll a were representative of measured conditions. The root mean square of the difference between measured and simulated dissolved-oxygen concentrations was about 1 milligram per liter.The calibrated water-quality model was applied to evaluate (1) the movement of a conservative, neutrally buoyant material, or tracer, through the reservoir for several sets of conditions; (2) the effects of the Riverbend thermal discharge on water temperature in the reservoir; (3) the effects of changes in water-supply withdrawal rates on water-quality conditions; and (4) changes in reservoir water quality in response to changes in point- and nonpoint-source loadings. In general, dissolved material entering Mountain Island Lake from both Cowans Ford Dam and McDowell Creek during the summer moves along the bottom of the lake toward Mountain Island Dam, with little mixing of dissolved material into the surface layers. Simulations suggest that dissolved material can move upstream in the reservoir when flows from Cowans Ford Dam are near zero. Dissolved material can remain in Mountain Island Lake for a period far in excess of the theoretical retention time of 12 days.Simulations indicated that the Riverbend thermal discharge increases water temperature in the surface layers of the downstream part of the reservoir by as much as 5 degrees Celsius. However, the discharge has little effect on near-bottom water temperature.Based on model simulations, a proposed doubling of the water-supply withdrawals from Mountain Island Lake has no readily apparent effect on water quality in the reservoir. The increased withdrawal rate may have some localized effects on circulation in the reservoir, but a more detailed model of the intake zone would be required to identify those effects.The effects of a 20-percent increase in water-chemistry loadings through Cowans Ford Dam and from McDowell Creek were simulated separately. Increased loadings from Cowans Ford Dam had about the same effect on water-quality conditions near Mountain Island Dam as did increased loadings from McDowell Creek. Maintaining good water quality in Mountain Island Lake depends on maintaining good water quality in Lake Norman as well as in the inflows from the McDowell Creek watershed.
A location-based multiple point statistics method: modelling the reservoir with non-stationary characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, Yanshu; Feng, Wenjie

2017-12-01

In this paper, a location-based multiple point statistics method is developed to model a non-stationary reservoir. The proposed method characterizes the relationship between the sedimentary pattern and the deposit location using the relative central position distance function, which alleviates the requirement that the training image and the simulated grids have the same dimension. The weights in every direction of the distance function can be changed to characterize the reservoir heterogeneity in various directions. The local integral replacements of data events, structured random path, distance tolerance and multi-grid strategy are applied to reproduce the sedimentary patterns and obtain a more realistic result. This method is compared with the traditional Snesim method using a synthesized 3-D training image of Poyang Lake and a reservoir model of Shengli Oilfield in China. The results indicate that the new method can reproduce the non-stationary characteristics better than the traditional method and is more suitable for simulation of delta-front deposits. These results show that the new method is a powerful tool for modelling a reservoir with non-stationary characteristics.
Modelling mechanical behaviour of limestone under reservoir conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carvalho Coelho, Lúcia; Soares, Antonio Claudio; Ebecken, Nelson Francisco F.; Drummond Alves, José Luis; Landau, Luiz

2006-12-01

High porosity and low permeability limestone has presented pore collapse. As fluid is withdrawn from these reservoirs, the effective stresses acting on the rock increase. If the strength of the rock is overcome, pore collapse may occur, leading to irreversible compaction of porous media with permeability and porosity reduction. It impacts on fluid withdrawal. Most of reservoirs have been discovered in weak formations, which are susceptible to this phenomenon. This work presents a study on the mechanical behaviour of a porous limestone from a reservoir located in Campos Basin, offshore Brazil. An experimental program was undergone in order to define its elastic plastic behaviour. The tests reproduced the loading path conditions expected in a reservoir under production. Parameters of the cap model were fitted to these tests and numerical simulations were run. The numerical simulations presented a good agreement with the experimental tests. Copyright
Comparison of long-term numerical simulations at the Ketzin pilot site using the Schlumberger ECLIPSE and LBNL TOUGH2 simulators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kempka, T.; Norden, B.; Tillner, E.; Nakaten, B.; Kühn, M.

2012-04-01

Geological modelling and dynamic flow simulations were conducted at the Ketzin pilot site showing a good agreement of history matched geological models with CO2 arrival times in both observation wells and timely development of reservoir pressure determined in the injection well. Recently, a re-evaluation of the seismic 3D data enabled a refinement of the structural site model and the implementation of the fault system present at the top of the Ketzin anticline. The updated geological model (model size: 5 km x 5 km) shows a horizontal discretization of 5 x 5 m and consists of three vertical zones, with the finest discretization at the top (0.5 m). According to the revised seismic analysis, the facies modelling to simulate the channel and floodplain facies distribution at Ketzin was updated. Using a sequential Gaussian simulator for the distribution of total and effective porosities and an empiric porosity-permeability relationship based on site and literature data available, the structural model was parameterized. Based on this revised reservoir model of the Stuttgart formation, numerical simulations using the TOUGH2-MP/ECO2N and Schlumberger Information Services (SIS) ECLIPSE 100 black-oil simulators were undertaken in order to evaluate the long-term (up to 10,000 years) migration of the injected CO2 (about 57,000 t at the end of 2011) and the development of reservoir pressure over time. The simulation results enabled us to quantitatively compare both reservoir simulators based on current operational data considering the long-term effects of CO2 storage including CO2 dissolution in the formation fluid. While the integration of the static geological model developed in the SIS Petrel modelling package into the ECLIPSE simulator is relatively flawless, a work-flow allowing for the export of Petrel models into the TOUGH2-MP input file format had to be implemented within the scope of this study. The challenge in this task was mainly determined by the presence of a complex faulted system in the revised reservoir model demanding for an integrated concept to deal with connections between the elements aligned to faults in the TOUGH2-MP simulator. Furthermore, we developed a methodology to visualize and compare the TOUGH2-MP simulation results with those of the Eclipse simulator using the Petrel software package. The long-term simulation results of both simulators are generally in good agreement. Spatial and timely migration of the CO2 plume as well as residual gas saturation are almost identical for both simulators, even though a time-dependent approach of CO2 dissolution in the formation fluid was chosen in the ECLIPSE simulator. Our results confirmed that a scientific open-source simulator as the TOUGH2-MP software package is capable to provide the same accuracy as the industrial standard simulator ECLIPSE 100. However, the computational time and additional efforts to implement a suitable workflow for using the TOUGH2-MP simulator are significantly higher, while the open-source concept of TOUGH2 provides more flexibility regarding process adaptation.
Rainfall-Runoff and Water-Balance Models for Management of the Fena Valley Reservoir, Guam

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yeung, Chiu W.

2005-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey's Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) and a generalized water-balance model were calibrated and verified for use in estimating future availability of water in the Fena Valley Reservoir in response to various combinations of water withdrawal rates and rainfall conditions. Application of PRMS provides a physically based method for estimating runoff from the Fena Valley Watershed during the annual dry season, which extends from January through May. Runoff estimates from the PRMS are used as input to the water-balance model to estimate change in water levels and storage in the reservoir. A previously published model was calibrated for the Maulap and Imong River watersheds using rainfall data collected outside of the watershed. That model was applied to the Almagosa River watershed by transferring calibrated parameters and coefficients because information on daily diversions at the Almagosa Springs upstream of the gaging station was not available at the time. Runoff from the ungaged land area was not modeled. For this study, the availability of Almagosa Springs diversion data allowed the calibration of PRMS for the Almagosa River watershed. Rainfall data collected at the Almagosa rain gage since 1992 also provided better estimates of rainfall distribution in the watershed. In addition, the discontinuation of pan-evaporation data collection in 1998 required a change in the evapotranspiration estimation method used in the PRMS model. These reasons prompted the update of the PRMS for the Fena Valley Watershed. Simulated runoff volume from the PRMS compared reasonably with measured values for gaging stations on Maulap, Almagosa, and Imong Rivers, tributaries to the Fena Valley Reservoir. On the basis of monthly runoff simulation for the dry seasons included in the entire simulation period (1992-2001), the total volume of runoff can be predicted within -3.66 percent at Maulap River, within 5.37 percent at Almagosa River, and within 10.74 percent at Imong River. Month-end reservoir volumes simulated by the reservoir water-balance model for both calibration and verification periods compared closely with measured reservoir volumes. Errors for the calibration periods ranged from 4.51 percent [208.7 acre-feet (acre-ft) or 68.0 million gallons (Mgal)] to -5.90 percent (-317.8 acre-ft or -103.6 Mgal). For the verification periods, errors ranged from 1.69 percent (103.5 acre-ft or 33.7 Mgal) to -4.60 percent (-178.7 acre-ft or -58.2 Mgal). Monthly simulation bias ranged from -0.19 percent for the calibration period to -0.98 percent for the verification period; relative error ranged from -0.37 to -1.12 percent, respectively. Relatively small bias indicated that the model did not consistently overestimate or underestimate reservoir volume.
Multi-time scale Climate Informed Stochastic Hybrid Simulation-Optimization Model (McISH model) for Multi-Purpose Reservoir System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, M.; Lall, U.

2013-12-01

In order to mitigate the impacts of climate change, proactive management strategies to operate reservoirs and dams are needed. A multi-time scale climate informed stochastic model is developed to optimize the operations for a multi-purpose single reservoir by simulating decadal, interannual, seasonal and sub-seasonal variability. We apply the model to a setting motivated by the largest multi-purpose dam in N. India, the Bhakhra reservoir on the Sutlej River, a tributary of the Indus. This leads to a focus on timing and amplitude of the flows for the monsoon and snowmelt periods. The flow simulations are constrained by multiple sources of historical data and GCM future projections, that are being developed through a NSF funded project titled 'Decadal Prediction and Stochastic Simulation of Hydroclimate Over Monsoon Asia'. The model presented is a multilevel, nonlinear programming model that aims to optimize the reservoir operating policy on a decadal horizon and the operation strategy on an updated annual basis. The model is hierarchical, in terms of having a structure that two optimization models designated for different time scales are nested as a matryoshka doll. The two optimization models have similar mathematical formulations with some modifications to meet the constraints within that time frame. The first level of the model is designated to provide optimization solution for policy makers to determine contracted annual releases to different uses with a prescribed reliability; the second level is a within-the-period (e.g., year) operation optimization scheme that allocates the contracted annual releases on a subperiod (e.g. monthly) basis, with additional benefit for extra release and penalty for failure. The model maximizes the net benefit of irrigation, hydropower generation and flood control in each of the periods. The model design thus facilitates the consistent application of weather and climate forecasts to improve operations of reservoir systems. The decadal flow simulations are re-initialized every year with updated climate projections to improve the reliability of the operation rules for the next year, within which the seasonal operation strategies are nested. The multi-level structure can be repeated for monthly operation with weekly subperiods to take advantage of evolving weather forecasts and seasonal climate forecasts. As a result of the hierarchical structure, sub-seasonal even weather time scale updates and adjustment can be achieved. Given an ensemble of these scenarios, the McISH reservoir simulation-optimization model is able to derive the desired reservoir storage levels, including minimum and maximum, as a function of calendar date, and the associated release patterns. The multi-time scale approach allows adaptive management of water supplies acknowledging the changing risks, meeting both the objectives over the decade in expected value and controlling the near term and planning period risk through probabilistic reliability constraints. For the applications presented, the target season is the monsoon season from June to September. The model also includes a monthly flood volume forecast model, based on a Copula density fit to the monthly flow and the flood volume flow. This is used to guide dynamic allocation of the flood control volume given the forecasts.
Reservoir Performance Under Future Climate For Basins With Different Hydrologic Sensitivities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mateus, M. C.; Tullos, D. D.

2013-12-01

In addition to long-standing uncertainties related to variable inflows and market price of power, reservoir operators face a number of new uncertainties related to hydrologic nonstationarity, changing environmental regulations, and rapidly growing water and energy demands. This study investigates the impact, sensitivity, and uncertainty of changing hydrology on hydrosystem performance across different hydrogeologic settings. We evaluate the performance of reservoirs in the Santiam River basin, including a case study in the North Santiam Basin, with high permeability and extensive groundwater storage, and the South Santiam Basin, with low permeability, little groundwater storage and rapid runoff response. The modeling objective is to address the following study questions: (1) for the two hydrologic regimes, how does the flood management, water supply, and environmental performance of current reservoir operations change under future 2.5, 50 and 97.5 percentile streamflow projections; and (2) how much change in inflow is required to initiate a failure to meet downstream minimum or maximum flows in the future. We couple global climate model results with a rainfall-runoff model and a formal Bayesian uncertainty analysis to simulate future inflow hydrographs as inputs to a reservoir operations model. To evaluate reservoir performance under a changing climate, we calculate reservoir refill reliability, changes in flood frequency, and reservoir time and volumetric reliability of meeting minimum spring and summer flow target. Reservoir performance under future hydrology appears to vary with hydrogeology. We find higher sensitivity to floods for the North Santiam Basin and higher sensitivity to minimum flow targets for the South Santiam Basin. Higher uncertainty is related with basins with a more complex hydrologeology. Results from model simulations contribute to understanding of the reliability and vulnerability of reservoirs to a changing climate.
The Fault Block Model: A novel approach for faulted gas reservoirs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ursin, J.R.; Moerkeseth, P.O.

1994-12-31

The Fault Block Model was designed for the development of gas production from Sleipner Vest. The reservoir consists of marginal marine sandstone of Hugine Formation. Modeling of highly faulted and compartmentalized reservoirs is severely impeded by the nature and extent of known and undetected faults and, in particular, their effectiveness as flow barrier. The model presented is efficient and superior to other models, for highly faulted reservoir, i.e. grid based simulators, because it minimizes the effect of major undetected faults and geological uncertainties. In this article the authors present the Fault Block Model as a new tool to better understandmore » the implications of geological uncertainty in faulted gas reservoirs with good productivity, with respect to uncertainty in well coverage and optimum gas recovery.« less
THERMO-HYDRO-MECHANICAL MODELING OF WORKING FLUID INJECTION AND THERMAL ENERGY EXTRACTION IN EGS FRACTURES AND ROCK MATRIX

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Robert Podgorney; Chuan Lu; Hai Huang

2012-01-01

Development of enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) will require creation of a reservoir of sufficient volume to enable commercial-scale heat transfer from the reservoir rocks to the working fluid. A key assumption associated with reservoir creation/stimulation is that sufficient rock volumes can be hydraulically fractured via both tensile and shear failure, and more importantly by reactivation of naturally existing fractures (by shearing), to create the reservoir. The advancement of EGS greatly depends on our understanding of the dynamics of the intimately coupled rock-fracture-fluid-heat system and our ability to reliably predict how reservoirs behave under stimulation and production. Reliable performance predictions ofmore » EGS reservoirs require accurate and robust modeling for strongly coupled thermal-hydrological-mechanical (THM) processes. Conventionally, these types of problems have been solved using operator-splitting methods, usually by coupling a subsurface flow and heat transport simulators with a solid mechanics simulator via input files. An alternative approach is to solve the system of nonlinear partial differential equations that govern multiphase fluid flow, heat transport, and rock mechanics simultaneously, using a fully coupled, fully implicit solution procedure, in which all solution variables (pressure, enthalpy, and rock displacement fields) are solved simultaneously. This paper describes numerical simulations used to investigate the poro- and thermal- elastic effects of working fluid injection and thermal energy extraction on the properties of the fractures and rock matrix of a hypothetical EGS reservoir, using a novel simulation software FALCON (Podgorney et al., 2011), a finite element based simulator solving fully coupled multiphase fluid flow, heat transport, rock deformation, and fracturing using a global implicit approach. Investigations are also conducted on how these poro- and thermal-elastic effects are related to fracture permeability evolution.« less
Simulation of water-energy fluxes through small-scale reservoir systems under limited data availability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papoulakos, Konstantinos; Pollakis, Giorgos; Moustakis, Yiannis; Markopoulos, Apostolis; Iliopoulou, Theano; Dimitriadis, Panayiotis; Koutsoyiannis, Demetris; Efstratiadis, Andreas

2017-04-01

Small islands are regarded as promising areas for developing hybrid water-energy systems that combine multiple sources of renewable energy with pumped-storage facilities. Essential element of such systems is the water storage component (reservoir), which implements both flow and energy regulations. Apparently, the representation of the overall water-energy management problem requires the simulation of the operation of the reservoir system, which in turn requires a faithful estimation of water inflows and demands of water and energy. Yet, in small-scale reservoir systems, this task in far from straightforward, since both the availability and accuracy of associated information is generally very poor. For, in contrast to large-scale reservoir systems, for which it is quite easy to find systematic and reliable hydrological data, in the case of small systems such data may be minor or even totally missing. The stochastic approach is the unique means to account for input data uncertainties within the combined water-energy management problem. Using as example the Livadi reservoir, which is the pumped storage component of the small Aegean island of Astypalaia, Greece, we provide a simulation framework, comprising: (a) a stochastic model for generating synthetic rainfall and temperature time series; (b) a stochastic rainfall-runoff model, whose parameters cannot be inferred through calibration and, thus, they are represented as correlated random variables; (c) a stochastic model for estimating water supply and irrigation demands, based on simulated temperature and soil moisture, and (d) a daily operation model of the reservoir system, providing stochastic forecasts of water and energy outflows. Acknowledgement: This research is conducted within the frame of the undergraduate course "Stochastic Methods in Water Resources" of the National Technical University of Athens (NTUA). The School of Civil Engineering of NTUA provided moral support for the participation of the students in the Assembly.
Using microstructure observations to quantify fracture properties and improve reservoir simulations. Final report, September 1998

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Laubach, S.E.; Marrett, R.; Rossen, W.

The research for this project provides new technology to understand and successfully characterize, predict, and simulate reservoir-scale fractures. Such fractures have worldwide importance because of their influence on successful extraction of resources. The scope of this project includes creation and testing of new methods to measure, interpret, and simulate reservoir fractures that overcome the challenge of inadequate sampling. The key to these methods is the use of microstructures as guides to the attributes of the large fractures that control reservoir behavior. One accomplishment of the project research is a demonstration that these microstructures can be reliably and inexpensively sampled. Specificmore » goals of this project were to: create and test new methods of measuring attributes of reservoir-scale fractures, particularly as fluid conduits, and test the methods on samples from reservoirs; extrapolate structural attributes to the reservoir scale through rigorous mathematical techniques and help build accurate and useful 3-D models of the interwell region; and design new ways to incorporate geological and geophysical information into reservoir simulation and verify the accuracy by comparison with production data. New analytical methods developed in the project are leading to a more realistic characterization of fractured reservoir rocks. Testing diagnostic and predictive approaches was an integral part of the research, and several tests were successfully completed.« less
Modeling brine-rock interactions in an enhanced geothermal systemdeep fractured reservoir at Soultz-Sous-Forets (France): a joint approachusing two geochemical codes: frachem and toughreact

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Andre, Laurent; Spycher, Nicolas; Xu, Tianfu

The modeling of coupled thermal, hydrological, and chemical (THC) processes in geothermal systems is complicated by reservoir conditions such as high temperatures, elevated pressures and sometimes the high salinity of the formation fluid. Coupled THC models have been developed and applied to the study of enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) to forecast the long-term evolution of reservoir properties and to determine how fluid circulation within a fractured reservoir can modify its rock properties. In this study, two simulators, FRACHEM and TOUGHREACT, specifically developed to investigate EGS, were applied to model the same geothermal reservoir and to forecast reservoir evolution using theirmore » respective thermodynamic and kinetic input data. First, we report the specifics of each of these two codes regarding the calculation of activity coefficients, equilibrium constants and mineral reaction rates. Comparisons of simulation results are then made for a Soultz-type geothermal fluid (ionic strength {approx}1.8 molal), with a recent (unreleased) version of TOUGHREACT using either an extended Debye-Hueckel or Pitzer model for calculating activity coefficients, and FRACHEM using the Pitzer model as well. Despite somewhat different calculation approaches and methodologies, we observe a reasonably good agreement for most of the investigated factors. Differences in the calculation schemes typically produce less difference in model outputs than differences in input thermodynamic and kinetic data, with model results being particularly sensitive to differences in ion-interaction parameters for activity coefficient models. Differences in input thermodynamic equilibrium constants, activity coefficients, and kinetics data yield differences in calculated pH and in predicted mineral precipitation behavior and reservoir-porosity evolution. When numerically cooling a Soultz-type geothermal fluid from 200 C (initially equilibrated with calcite at pH 4.9) to 20 C and suppressing mineral precipitation, pH values calculated with FRACHEM and TOUGHREACT/Debye-Hueckel decrease by up to half a pH unit, whereas pH values calculated with TOUGHREACT/Pitzer increase by a similar amount. As a result of these differences, calcite solubilities computed using the Pitzer formalism (the more accurate approach) are up to about 1.5 orders of magnitude lower. Because of differences in Pitzer ion-interaction parameters, the calcite solubility computed with TOUGHREACT/Pitzer is also typically about 0.5 orders of magnitude lower than that computed with FRACHEM, with the latter expected to be most accurate. In a second part of this investigation, both models were applied to model the evolution of a Soultz-type geothermal reservoir under high pressure and temperature conditions. By specifying initial conditions reflecting a reservoir fluid saturated with respect to calcite (a reasonable assumption based on field data), we found that THC reservoir simulations with the three models yield similar results, including similar trends and amounts of reservoir porosity decrease over time, thus pointing to the importance of model conceptualization. This study also highlights the critical effect of input thermodynamic data on the results of reactive transport simulations, most particularly for systems involving brines.« less
Modeling thermal stress propagation during hydraulic stimulation of geothermal wells

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jansen, Gunnar; Miller, Stephen A.

2017-04-01

A large fraction of the world's water and energy resources are located in naturally fractured reservoirs within the earth's crust. Depending on the lithology and tectonic history of a formation, fracture networks can range from dense and homogeneous highly fractured networks to single large scale fractures dominating the flow behavior. Understanding the dynamics of such reservoirs in terms of flow and transport is crucial to successful application of engineered geothermal systems (also known as enhanced geothermal systems or EGS) for geothermal energy production in the future. Fractured reservoirs are considered to consist of two distinct separate media, namely the fracture and matrix space respectively. Fractures are generally thin, highly conductive containing only small amounts of fluid, whereas the matrix rock provides high fluid storage but typically has much smaller permeability. Simulation of flow and transport through fractured porous media is challenging due to the high permeability contrast between the fractures and the surrounding rock matrix. However, accurate and efficient simulation of flow through a fracture network is crucial in order to understand, optimize and engineer reservoirs. It has been a research topic for several decades and is still under active research. Accurate fluid flow simulations through field-scale fractured reservoirs are still limited by the power of current computer processing units (CPU). We present an efficient implementation of the embedded discrete fracture model, which is a promising new technique in modeling the behavior of enhanced geothermal systems. An efficient coupling strategy is determined for numerical performance of the model. We provide new insight into the coupled modeling of fluid flow, heat transport of engineered geothermal reservoirs with focus on the thermal stress changes during the stimulation process. We further investigate the interplay of thermal and poro-elastic stress changes in the reservoir. Combined with a analytical formulation for the injection temperatures in the open hole section of a geothermal well, the stress changes induced during the injection period of reservoir development can be studied.
Understanding CO2 Plume Behavior and Basin-Scale Pressure Changes during Sequestration Projects through the use of Reservoir Fluid Modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Leetaru, H.E.; Frailey, S.M.; Damico, J.; Mehnert, E.; Birkholzer, J.; Zhou, Q.; Jordan, P.D.

2009-01-01

Large scale geologic sequestration tests are in the planning stages around the world. The liability and safety issues of the migration of CO2 away from the primary injection site and/or reservoir are of significant concerns for these sequestration tests. Reservoir models for simulating single or multi-phase fluid flow are used to understand the migration of CO2 in the subsurface. These models can also help evaluate concerns related to brine migration and basin-scale pressure increases that occur due to the injection of additional fluid volumes into the subsurface. The current paper presents different modeling examples addressing these issues, ranging from simple geometric models to more complex reservoir fluid models with single-site and basin-scale applications. Simple geometric models assuming a homogeneous geologic reservoir and piston-like displacement have been used for understanding pressure changes and fluid migration around each CO2 storage site. These geometric models are useful only as broad approximations because they do not account for the variation in porosity, permeability, asymmetry of the reservoir, and dip of the beds. In addition, these simple models are not capable of predicting the interference between different injection sites within the same reservoir. A more realistic model of CO2 plume behavior can be produced using reservoir fluid models. Reservoir simulation of natural gas storage reservoirs in the Illinois Basin Cambrian-age Mt. Simon Sandstone suggest that reservoir heterogeneity will be an important factor for evaluating storage capacity. The Mt. Simon Sandstone is a thick sandstone that underlies many significant coal fired power plants (emitting at least 1 million tonnes per year) in the midwestern United States including the states of Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, and Ohio. The initial commercial sequestration sites are expected to inject 1 to 2 million tonnes of CO2 per year. Depending on the geologic structure and permeability anisotropy, the CO2 injected into the Mt. Simon are expected to migrate less than 3 km. After 30 years of continuous injection followed by 100 years of shut-in, the plume from a 1 million tonnes a year injection rate is expected to migrate 1.6 km for a 0 degree dip reservoir and over 3 km for a 5 degree dip reservoir. The region where reservoir pressure increases in response to CO2 injection is typically much larger than the CO2 plume. It can thus be anticipated that there will be basin wide interactions between different CO2 injection sources if multiple, large volume sites are developed. This interaction will result in asymmetric plume migration that may be contrary to reservoir dip. A basin- scale simulation model is being developed to predict CO2 plume migration, brine displacement, and pressure buildup for a possible future sequestration scenario featuring multiple CO2 storage sites within the Illinois Basin Mt. Simon Sandstone. Interactions between different sites will be evaluated with respect to impacts on pressure and CO2 plume migration patterns. ?? 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Modeling Reservoir-River Networks in Support of Optimizing Seasonal-Scale Reservoir Operations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Villa, D. L.; Lowry, T. S.; Bier, A.; Barco, J.; Sun, A.

2011-12-01

HydroSCOPE (Hydropower Seasonal Concurrent Optimization of Power and the Environment) is a seasonal time-scale tool for scenario analysis and optimization of reservoir-river networks. Developed in MATLAB, HydroSCOPE is an object-oriented model that simulates basin-scale dynamics with an objective of optimizing reservoir operations to maximize revenue from power generation, reliability in the water supply, environmental performance, and flood control. HydroSCOPE is part of a larger toolset that is being developed through a Department of Energy multi-laboratory project. This project's goal is to provide conventional hydropower decision makers with better information to execute their day-ahead and seasonal operations and planning activities by integrating water balance and operational dynamics across a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. This presentation details the modeling approach and functionality of HydroSCOPE. HydroSCOPE consists of a river-reservoir network model and an optimization routine. The river-reservoir network model simulates the heat and water balance of river-reservoir networks for time-scales up to one year. The optimization routine software, DAKOTA (Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale Applications - dakota.sandia.gov), is seamlessly linked to the network model and is used to optimize daily volumetric releases from the reservoirs to best meet a set of user-defined constraints, such as maximizing revenue while minimizing environmental violations. The network model uses 1-D approximations for both the reservoirs and river reaches and is able to account for surface and sediment heat exchange as well as ice dynamics for both models. The reservoir model also accounts for inflow, density, and withdrawal zone mixing, and diffusive heat exchange. Routing for the river reaches is accomplished using a modified Muskingum-Cunge approach that automatically calculates the internal timestep and sub-reach lengths to match the conditions of each timestep and minimize computational overhead. Power generation for each reservoir is estimated using a 2-dimensional regression that accounts for both the available head and turbine efficiency. The object-oriented architecture makes run configuration easy to update. The dynamic model inputs include inflow and meteorological forecasts while static inputs include bathymetry data, reservoir and power generation characteristics, and topological descriptors. Ensemble forecasts of hydrological and meteorological conditions are supplied in real-time by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and are used as a proxy for uncertainty, which is carried through the simulation and optimization process to produce output that describes the probability that different operational scenario's will be optimal. The full toolset, which includes HydroSCOPE, is currently being tested on the Feather River system in Northern California and the Upper Colorado Storage Project.
Evaluating the variability in surface water reservoir planning characteristics during climate change impacts assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soundharajan, Bankaru-Swamy; Adeloye, Adebayo J.; Remesan, Renji

2016-07-01

This study employed a Monte-Carlo simulation approach to characterise the uncertainties in climate change induced variations in storage requirements and performance (reliability (time- and volume-based), resilience, vulnerability and sustainability) of surface water reservoirs. Using a calibrated rainfall-runoff (R-R) model, the baseline runoff scenario was first simulated. The R-R inputs (rainfall and temperature) were then perturbed using plausible delta-changes to produce simulated climate change runoff scenarios. Stochastic models of the runoff were developed and used to generate ensembles of both the current and climate-change-perturbed future runoff scenarios. The resulting runoff ensembles were used to force simulation models of the behaviour of the reservoir to produce 'populations' of required reservoir storage capacity to meet demands, and the performance. Comparing these parameters between the current and the perturbed provided the population of climate change effects which was then analysed to determine the variability in the impacts. The methodology was applied to the Pong reservoir on the Beas River in northern India. The reservoir serves irrigation and hydropower needs and the hydrology of the catchment is highly influenced by Himalayan seasonal snow and glaciers, and Monsoon rainfall, both of which are predicted to change due to climate change. The results show that required reservoir capacity is highly variable with a coefficient of variation (CV) as high as 0.3 as the future climate becomes drier. Of the performance indices, the vulnerability recorded the highest variability (CV up to 0.5) while the volume-based reliability was the least variable. Such variabilities or uncertainties will, no doubt, complicate the development of climate change adaptation measures; however, knowledge of their sheer magnitudes as obtained in this study will help in the formulation of appropriate policy and technical interventions for sustaining and possibly enhancing water security for irrigation and other uses served by Pong reservoir.
Benchmarking of vertically-integrated CO2 flow simulations at the Sleipner Field, North Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cowton, L. R.; Neufeld, J. A.; White, N. J.; Bickle, M. J.; Williams, G. A.; White, J. C.; Chadwick, R. A.

2018-06-01

Numerical modeling plays an essential role in both identifying and assessing sub-surface reservoirs that might be suitable for future carbon capture and storage projects. Accuracy of flow simulations is tested by benchmarking against historic observations from on-going CO2 injection sites. At the Sleipner project located in the North Sea, a suite of time-lapse seismic reflection surveys enables the three-dimensional distribution of CO2 at the top of the reservoir to be determined as a function of time. Previous attempts have used Darcy flow simulators to model CO2 migration throughout this layer, given the volume of injection with time and the location of the injection point. Due primarily to computational limitations preventing adequate exploration of model parameter space, these simulations usually fail to match the observed distribution of CO2 as a function of space and time. To circumvent these limitations, we develop a vertically-integrated fluid flow simulator that is based upon the theory of topographically controlled, porous gravity currents. This computationally efficient scheme can be used to invert for the spatial distribution of reservoir permeability required to minimize differences between the observed and calculated CO2 distributions. When a uniform reservoir permeability is assumed, inverse modeling is unable to adequately match the migration of CO2 at the top of the reservoir. If, however, the width and permeability of a mapped channel deposit are allowed to independently vary, a satisfactory match between the observed and calculated CO2 distributions is obtained. Finally, the ability of this algorithm to forecast the flow of CO2 at the top of the reservoir is assessed. By dividing the complete set of seismic reflection surveys into training and validation subsets, we find that the spatial pattern of permeability required to match the training subset can successfully predict CO2 migration for the validation subset. This ability suggests that it might be feasible to forecast migration patterns into the future with a degree of confidence. Nevertheless, our analysis highlights the difficulty in estimating reservoir parameters away from the region swept by CO2 without additional observational constraints.
Simulation of seismic events induced by CO2 injection at In Salah, Algeria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verdon, James P.; Stork, Anna L.; Bissell, Rob C.; Bond, Clare E.; Werner, Maximilian J.

2015-09-01

Carbon capture and storage technology has the potential to reduce anthropogenic CO2 emissions. However, the geomechanical response of the reservoir and sealing caprocks must be modelled and monitored to ensure that injected CO2 is safely stored. To ensure confidence in model results, there is a clear need to develop ways of comparing model predictions with observations from the field. In this paper we develop an approach to simulate microseismic activity induced by injection, which allows us to compare geomechanical model predictions with observed microseismic activity. We apply this method to the In Salah CCS project, Algeria. A geomechanical reconstruction is used to simulate the locations, orientations and sizes of pre-existing fractures in the In Salah reservoir. The initial stress conditions, in combination with a history matched reservoir flow model, are used to determine when and where these fractures exceed Mohr-Coulomb limits, triggering failure. The sizes and orientations of fractures, and the stress conditions thereon, are used to determine the resulting micro-earthquake focal mechanisms and magnitudes. We compare our simulated event population with observations made at In Salah, finding good agreement between model and observations in terms of event locations, rates of seismicity, and event magnitudes.

Design and performance evaluation of a simplified dynamic model for combined sewer overflows in pumped sewer systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Daal-Rombouts, Petra; Sun, Siao; Langeveld, Jeroen; Bertrand-Krajewski, Jean-Luc; Clemens, François

2016-07-01

Optimisation or real time control (RTC) studies in wastewater systems increasingly require rapid simulations of sewer systems in extensive catchments. To reduce the simulation time calibrated simplified models are applied, with the performance generally based on the goodness of fit of the calibration. In this research the performance of three simplified and a full hydrodynamic (FH) model for two catchments are compared based on the correct determination of CSO event occurrences and of the total discharged volumes to the surface water. Simplified model M1 consists of a rainfall runoff outflow (RRO) model only. M2 combines the RRO model with a static reservoir model for the sewer behaviour. M3 comprises the RRO model and a dynamic reservoir model. The dynamic reservoir characteristics were derived from FH model simulations. It was found that M2 and M3 are able to describe the sewer behaviour of the catchments, contrary to M1. The preferred model structure depends on the quality of the information (geometrical database and monitoring data) available for the design and calibration of the model. Finally, calibrated simplified models are shown to be preferable to uncalibrated FH models when performing optimisation or RTC studies.
Groundwater Salinity Simulation of a Subsurface Reservoir in Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fang, H. T.

2015-12-01

The subsurface reservoir is located in Chi-Ken Basin, Pescadores (a group islands located at western part of Taiwan). There is no river in these remote islands and thus the freshwater supply is relied on the subsurface reservoir. The basin area of the subsurface reservoir is 2.14 km2 , discharge of groundwater is 1.27×106m3 , annual planning water supplies is 7.9×105m3 , which include for domestic agricultural usage. The annual average temperature is 23.3oC, average moisture is 80~85%, annual average rainfall is 913 mm, but ET rate is 1975mm. As there is no single river in the basin; the major recharge of groundwater is by infiltration. Chi-Ken reservoir is the first subsurface reservoir in Taiwan. Originally, the water quality of the reservoir is good. The reservoir has had the salinity problem since 1991 and it became more and more serious from 1992 until 1994. Possible reason of the salinity problem was the shortage of rainfall or the leakage of the subsurface barrier which caused the seawater intrusion. The present study aimed to determine the leakage position of subsurface barrier that caused the salinity problem. In order to perform the simulation for different possible leakage position of the subsurface reservoir, a Groundwater Modeling System (GMS) is used to define soils layer data, hydro-geological parameters, initial conditions, boundary conditions and the generation of three dimension meshes. A three dimension FEMWATER(Yeh , 1996) numerical model was adopted to find the possible leakage position of the subsurface barrier and location of seawater intrusion by comparing the simulation of different possible leakage with the observations. 1.By assuming the leakage position in the bottom of barrier, the simulated numerical result matched the observation better than the other assumed leakage positions. It showed that the most possible leakage position was at the bottom of the barrier. 2.The research applied three dimension FEMWATER and GMS as an interface to input parameter. The simulation of water level and chloride concentration already showed the real situation, and the result can be applied to the future study of the Chi-Ken subsurface reservoir salinity problems.
Integrated Approach to Drilling Project in Unconventional Reservoir Using Reservoir Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stopa, Jerzy; Wiśniowski, Rafał; Wojnarowski, Paweł; Janiga, Damian; Skrzypaszek, Krzysztof

2018-03-01

Accumulation and flow mechanisms in unconventional reservoir are different compared to conventional. This requires a special approach of field management with drilling and stimulation treatments as major factor for further production. Integrated approach of unconventional reservoir production optimization assumes coupling drilling project with full scale reservoir simulation for determine best well placement, well length, fracturing treatment design and mid-length distance between wells. Full scale reservoir simulation model emulate a part of polish shale - gas field. The aim of this paper is to establish influence of technical factor for gas production from shale gas field. Due to low reservoir permeability, stimulation treatment should be direct towards maximizing the hydraulic contact. On the basis of production scenarios, 15 stages hydraulic fracturing allows boost gas production over 1.5 times compared to 8 stages. Due to the possible interference of the wells, it is necessary to determine the distance between the horizontal parts of the wells trajectories. In order to determine the distance between the wells allowing to maximize recovery factor of resources in the stimulated zone, a numerical algorithm based on a dynamic model was developed and implemented. Numerical testing and comparative study show that the most favourable arrangement assumes a minimum allowable distance between the wells. This is related to the volume ratio of the drainage zone to the total volume of the stimulated zone.
Trade-off analysis of discharge-desiltation-turbidity and ANN analysis on sedimentation of a combined reservoir-reach system under multi-phase and multi-layer conjunctive releasing operation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Chien-Lin; Hsu, Nien-Sheng; Wei, Chih-Chiang; Yao, Chun-Hao

2017-10-01

Multi-objective reservoir operation considering the trade-off of discharge-desiltation-turbidity during typhoons and sediment concentration (SC) simulation modeling are the vital components for sustainable reservoir management. The purposes of this study were (1) to analyze the multi-layer release trade-offs between reservoir desiltation and intake turbidity of downstream purification plants and thus propose a superior conjunctive operation strategy and (2) to develop ANFIS-based (adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system) and RTRLNN-based (real-time recurrent learning neural networks) substitute SC simulation models. To this end, this study proposed a methodology to develop (1) a series of multi-phase and multi-layer sediment-flood conjunctive release modes and (2) a specialized SC numerical model for a combined reservoir-reach system. The conjunctive release modes involve (1) an optimization model where the decision variables are multi-phase reduction/scaling ratios and the timings to generate a superior total release hydrograph for flood control (Phase I: phase prior to flood arrival, Phase II/III: phase prior to/subsequent to peak flow) and (2) a combination method with physical limitations regarding separation of the singular hydrograph into multi-layer release hydrographs for sediment control. This study employed the featured signals obtained from statistical quartiles/sediment duration curve in mesh segmentation, and an iterative optimization model with a sediment unit response matrix and corresponding geophysical-based acceleration factors, for efficient parameter calibration. This research applied the developed methodology to the Shihmen Reservoir basin in Taiwan. The trade-off analytical results using Typhoons Sinlaku and Jangmi as case examples revealed that owing to gravity current and re-suspension effects, Phase I + II can de-silt safely without violating the intake's turbidity limitation before reservoir discharge reaches 2238 m3/s; however, Phase III can only de-silt after the release at spillway reaches 827 m3/s, and before reservoir discharge reaches 1924 m3/s, with corresponding maximum desiltation ratio being 0.221 and 0.323, respectively. Moreover, the model construction results demonstrated that the self-adaption/fuzzy inference of ANFIS can effectively simulate the SC hydrograph in an unsteady state for suspended load-dominated water bodies, and that the real-time recurrent deterministic routing of RTRLNN can accurately simulate that of a bedload-dominated flow regime.
Model simulation of the Manasquan water-supply system in Monmouth County, New Jersey

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chang, Ming; Tasker, Gary D.; Nieswand, Steven

2001-01-01

Model simulation of the Manasquan Water Supply System in Monmouth County, New Jersey, was completed using historic hydrologic data to evaluate the effects of operational and withdrawal alternatives on the Manasquan reservoir and pumping system. Changes in the system operations can be simulated with the model using precipitation forecasts. The Manasquan Reservoir system model operates by using daily streamflow values, which were reconstructed from historical U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging station records. The model is able to run in two modes--General Risk analysis Model (GRAM) and Position Analysis Model (POSA). The GRAM simulation procedure uses reconstructed historical streamflow records to provide probability estimates of certain events, such as reservoir storage levels declining below a specific level, when given an assumed set of operating rules and withdrawal rates. POSA can be used to forecast the likelihood of specified outcomes, such as streamflows falling below statutory passing flows, associated with a specific working plan for the water-supply system over a period of months. The user can manipulate the model and generate graphs and tables of streamflows and storage, for example. This model can be used as a management tool to facilitate the development of drought warning and drought emergency rule curves and safe yield values for the water-supply system.
Modelling a hydropower plant with reservoir with the micropower optimisation model (HOMER)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Canales, Fausto A.; Beluco, Alexandre; Mendes, Carlos André B.

2017-08-01

Hydropower with water accumulation is an interesting option to consider in hybrid systems, because it helps dealing with the intermittence characteristics of renewable energy resources. The software HOMER (version Legacy) is extensively used in research works related to these systems, but it does not include a specific option for modelling hydro with reservoir. This paper describes a method for modelling a hydropower plant with reservoir with HOMER by adapting an existing procedure used for modelling pumped storage. An example with two scenarios in southern Brazil is presented for illustrating and validating the method explained in this paper. The results validate the method by showing a direct correspondence between an equivalent battery and the reservoir. The refill of the reservoir, its power output as a function of the flow rate and installed hydropower capacity are effectively simulated, indicating an adequate representation of a hydropower plant with reservoir is possible with HOMER.
Marine radiocarbon reservoir age simulations for the past 50,000 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Butzin, M.; Köhler, P.; Lohmann, G.

2017-08-01

Radiocarbon (14C) dating calibration for the last glacial period largely relies on cross-dated marine 14C records. However, marine reservoirs are isotopically depleted with respect to the atmosphere and therefore have to be corrected by the Marine Radiocarbon Ages of surface waters (MRAs), whose temporal variabilities are largely unknown. Here we present simulations of the spatial and temporal variability in MRAs using a three-dimensional ocean circulation model covering the past 50,000 years. Our simulations are compared to reconstructions of past surface ocean Δ14C. Running the model with different climatic boundary conditions, we find that low-latitude to midlatitude MRAs have varied between 400 and 1200 14C years, with values of about 780 14C years at the Last Glacial Maximum. Reservoir ages exceeding 2000 14C years are simulated in the polar oceans. Our simulation results can be used as first-order approximation of the MRA variability in future radiocarbon calibration efforts.
Optimizing withdrawal from drinking water reservoirs to reduce downstream temperature pollution and reservoir hypoxia.

PubMed

Weber, M; Rinke, K; Hipsey, M R; Boehrer, B

2017-07-15

Sustainable management of drinking water reservoirs requires balancing the demands of water supply whilst minimizing environmental impact. This study numerically simulates the effect of an improved withdrawal scheme designed to alleviate the temperature pollution downstream of a reservoir. The aim was to identify an optimal withdrawal strategy such that water of a desirable discharge temperature can be supplied downstream without leading to unacceptably low oxygen concentrations within the reservoir. First, we calibrated a one-dimensional numerical model for hydrodynamics and oxygen dynamics (GLM-AED2), verifying that the model reproduced water temperatures and hypolimnetic dissolved oxygen concentrations accurately over a 5 year period. Second, the model was extended to include an adaptive withdrawal functionality, allowing for a prescribed withdrawal temperature to be found, with the potential constraint of hypolimnetic oxygen concentration. Scenario simulations on epi-/metalimnetic withdrawal demonstrate that the model is able to autonomously determine the best withdrawal height depending on the thermal structure and the hypolimnetic oxygen concentration thereby optimizing the ability to supply a desirable discharge temperature to the downstream river during summer. This new withdrawal strategy also increased the hypolimnetic raw water volume to be used for drinking water supply, but reduced the dissolved oxygen concentrations in the deep and cold water layers (hypolimnion). Implications of the results for reservoir management are discussed and the numerical model is provided for operators as a simple and efficient tool for optimizing the withdrawal strategy within different reservoir contexts. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
The Effect of Model Grid Resolution on the Distributed Hydrologic Simulations for Forecasting Stream Flows and Reservoir Storage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turnbull, S. J.

2017-12-01

Within the US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), reservoirs are typically operated according to a rule curve that specifies target water levels based on the time of year. The rule curve is intended to maximize flood protection by specifying releases of water before the dominant rainfall period for a region. While some operating allowances are permissible, generally the rule curve elevations must be maintained. While this operational approach provides for the required flood control purpose, it may not result in optimal reservoir operations for multi-use impoundments. In the Russian River Valley of California a multi-agency research effort called Forecast-Informed Reservoir Operations (FIRO) is assessing the application of forecast weather and streamflow predictions to potentially enhance the operation of reservoirs in the watershed. The focus of the study has been on Lake Mendocino, a USACE project important for flood control, water supply, power generation and ecological flows. As part of this effort the Engineer Research and Development Center is assessing the ability of utilizing the physics based, distributed watershed model Gridded Surface Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis (GSSHA) model to simulate stream flows, reservoir stages, and discharges while being driven by weather forecast products. A key question in this application is the effect of watershed model resolution on forecasted stream flows. To help resolve this question, GSSHA models of multiple grid resolutions, 30, 50, and 270m, were developed for the upper Russian River, which includes Lake Mendocino. The models were derived from common inputs: DEM, soils, land use, stream network, reservoir characteristics, and specified inflows and discharges. All the models were calibrated in both event and continuous simulation mode using measured precipitation gages and then driven with the West-WRF atmospheric model in prediction mode to assess the ability of the model to function in short term, less than one week, forecasting mode. In this presentation we will discuss the effect the grid resolution has model development, parameter assignment, streamflow prediction and forecasting capability utilizing the West-WRF forecast hydro-meteorology.
Applicability of WRF-Lake System in Studying Reservoir-Induced Impacts on Local Climate: Case Study of Two Reservoirs with Contrasting Characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, F.; Zhu, D.; Ni, G.; Sun, T.

2017-12-01

Large reservoirs play a key role in regional hydrological cycles as well as in modulating the local climate. The emerging large reservoirs in concomitant with rapid hydropower exploitation in southwestern China warrant better understanding of their impacts on local and regional climates. One of the crucial pathways through which reservoirs impact the climate is lake-atmospheric interaction. Although such interactions have been widely studied with numeric weather prediction (NWP) models, an outstanding limitation across various NWPs resides on the poor thermodynamic representation of lakes. The recent version of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) system has been equipped with a one-dimensional lake model to better represent the thermodynamics of large water body and has been shown to enhance the its predication skill in the lake-atmospheric interaction. In this study, we further explore the applicability of the WRF-Lake system in two reservoirs with contrasting characteristics: Miyun Reservoir with an average depth of 30 meters in North China Plain, and Nuozhadu Reservoir with an average depth of 200 meters in the Tibetan Plateau Region. Driven by the high spatiotemporal resolution meteorological forcing data, the WRF-Lake system is used to simulate the water temperature and surface energy budgets of the two reservoirs after the evaluation against temperature observations. The simulated results show the WRF-Lake model can well predict the vertical profile of water temperature in Miyun Reservoir, but underestimates deep water temperature and overestimates surface temperature in the deeper Nuozhadu Reservoir. In addition, sensitivity analysis indicates the poor performance of the WRF-Lake system in Nuozhadu Reservoir could be attributed to the weak vertical mixing in the model, which can be improved by tuning the eddy diffusion coefficient ke . Keywords: reservoir-induced climatic impact; lake-atmospheric interaction; WRF-Lake system; hydropower exploitation
A model study of the coupled water quality and hydrodynamics in YuQiao Reservoir of Haihe River Basin, People's Republic of China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, X.; Liu, J.; Peng, W.; Wang, Y.

2007-05-01

In recent years, eutrophication has become one of the most serious of global water pollution problems, especially in reservoirs, which is menacing the security of domestic water supplies. As the unique drinking water source of Tianjin within the Haihe River basin of Hebei Province, China, YuQiao Reservoir has been polluted and its eutrophic state is serious. To make clear the physical and chemical relationship between transport and transformation of the polluted water, a model package was developed to compute the hydrodynamic field and mass transport processes including total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) for YuQiao Reservoir. The hydrodynamic model was driven by observed winds and daily measured flow data to simulate the seasonal water cycle of the reservoir. The mass transport and transformation processes of TN and TP was based on the unsteady diffusion equations, driven by observed meteorological forcings and external loadings, with the fluxes through the bottom of the reservoir, plant (algal) photosynthesis, and respiration as internal sources and sinks. The solution of these equations uses the finite volume method and alternating direction implicit (ADI) scheme. The model was calibrated and verified by using the data observed from YuQiao Reservoir in two different years. The results showed that in YuQiao Reservoir, the wind-driven current is an important style of lake current, while the water quality is decreasing from east to west because of the external polluted loadings. There was good agreement between the simulated and measured values. Advection is the main process driving the water quality impacts from the inflow river, and diffusion and biochemical processes dominate in center of the reservoir. So it is necessary to build a pre-pond to reduce the external loadings into the reservoir.
Particle Models with Self Sustained Current

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Colangeli, M.; De Masi, A.; Presutti, E.

2017-06-01

We present some computer simulations run on a stochastic cellular automaton (CA). The CA simulates a gas of particles which are in a channel,the interval [1, L] in Z, but also in "reservoirs" R_1 and R_2. The evolution in the channel simulates a lattice gas with Kawasaki dynamics with attractive Kac interactions; the temperature is chosen smaller than the mean field critical one. There are also exchanges of particles between the channel and the reservoirs and among reservoirs. When the rate of exchanges among reservoirs is in a suitable interval the CA reaches an apparently stationary state with a non zero current; for different choices of the initial condition the current changes sign. We have a quite satisfactory theory of the phenomenon but we miss a full mathematical proof.
Stochastic Representation and Uncertainty Assessment of a Deep Geothermal Reservoir Using Cross-Borehole ERT: A 3D Synthetic Case

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brunet, P.; Gloaguen, E.

2014-12-01

Designing and monitoring of geothermal systems is a complex task which requires a multidisciplinary approach. Deep geothermal reservoir models are prone to greater uncertainty, with a lack of direct data and lower resolution of surface geophysical methods. However, recent technical advances have enabled the potential use of permanent downhole vertical resistivity arrays for monitoring fluid injection. As electrical resistivity is sensitive to temperature changes, such data could provide valuable information for deep geothermal reservoir characterization. The objective of this study is to assess the potential of time-lapse cross-borehole ERT to constrain 3D realizations of geothermal reservoir properties. The synthetic case of a permeable geothermal reservoir in a sedimentary basin was set up, as a confined deep and saline sandstone aquifer with intermediate reservoir temperatures (150ºC), depth (1 km) and 30m thickness. The reservoir permeability distribution is heterogeneous, as the result of a fluvial depositional environment. The ERT monitoring system design is a triangular arrangement of 3 wells at 150 m spacing, including 1 injection and 1 extraction well. The optimal number and spacing of electrodes of the ERT array design is site-specific and has been assessed through a sensibility study. Dipole-dipole and pole-pole electrode configurations were used. The study workflow was the following: 1) Generation of a reference reservoir model and 100 stochastic realizations of permeability; 2) Simulation of saturated single-phase flow and heat transport of reinjection of cooled formation fluid (50ºC) with TOUGH2 software; 3) Time-lapse forward ERT modeling on the reference model and all realizations (observed and simulated apparent resistivity change); 4) heuristic optimization on ERT computed and calculated data. Preliminary results show significant reduction of parameter uncertainty, hence realization space, with assimilation of cross-borehole ERT data. Loss in sensitivity of ERT between boreholes is compensated here by the stochastic modeling approach, rather than using a deterministic inversion scheme. Our results suggest stochastic reservoir simulations, together with assimilation of cross-borehole ERT data, could be useful tools for design and monitoring of deep geothermal systems.
Analysis of real-time reservoir monitoring : reservoirs, strategies, & modeling.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mani, Seethambal S.; van Bloemen Waanders, Bart Gustaaf; Cooper, Scott Patrick

2006-11-01

The project objective was to detail better ways to assess and exploit intelligent oil and gas field information through improved modeling, sensor technology, and process control to increase ultimate recovery of domestic hydrocarbons. To meet this objective we investigated the use of permanent downhole sensors systems (Smart Wells) whose data is fed real-time into computational reservoir models that are integrated with optimized production control systems. The project utilized a three-pronged approach (1) a value of information analysis to address the economic advantages, (2) reservoir simulation modeling and control optimization to prove the capability, and (3) evaluation of new generation sensormore » packaging to survive the borehole environment for long periods of time. The Value of Information (VOI) decision tree method was developed and used to assess the economic advantage of using the proposed technology; the VOI demonstrated the increased subsurface resolution through additional sensor data. Our findings show that the VOI studies are a practical means of ascertaining the value associated with a technology, in this case application of sensors to production. The procedure acknowledges the uncertainty in predictions but nevertheless assigns monetary value to the predictions. The best aspect of the procedure is that it builds consensus within interdisciplinary teams The reservoir simulation and modeling aspect of the project was developed to show the capability of exploiting sensor information both for reservoir characterization and to optimize control of the production system. Our findings indicate history matching is improved as more information is added to the objective function, clearly indicating that sensor information can help in reducing the uncertainty associated with reservoir characterization. Additional findings and approaches used are described in detail within the report. The next generation sensors aspect of the project evaluated sensors and packaging survivability issues. Our findings indicate that packaging represents the most significant technical challenge associated with application of sensors in the downhole environment for long periods (5+ years) of time. These issues are described in detail within the report. The impact of successful reservoir monitoring programs and coincident improved reservoir management is measured by the production of additional oil and gas volumes from existing reservoirs, revitalization of nearly depleted reservoirs, possible re-establishment of already abandoned reservoirs, and improved economics for all cases. Smart Well monitoring provides the means to understand how a reservoir process is developing and to provide active reservoir management. At the same time it also provides data for developing high-fidelity simulation models. This work has been a joint effort with Sandia National Laboratories and UT-Austin's Bureau of Economic Geology, Department of Petroleum and Geosystems Engineering, and the Institute of Computational and Engineering Mathematics.« less
Flow units classification for geostatisitical three-dimensional modeling of a non-marine sandstone reservoir: A case study from the Paleocene Funing Formation of the Gaoji Oilfield, east China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Penghui; Zhang, Jinliang; Wang, Jinkai; Li, Ming; Liang, Jie; Wu, Yingli

2018-05-01

Flow units classification can be used in reservoir characterization. In addition, characterizing the reservoir interval into flow units is an effective way to simulate the reservoir. Paraflow units (PFUs), the second level of flow units, are used to estimate the spatial distribution of continental clastic reservoirs at the detailed reservoir description stage. In this study, we investigate a nonroutine methodology to predict the external and internal distribution of PFUs. The methodology outlined enables the classification of PFUs using sandstone core samples and log data. The relationships obtained between porosity, permeability and pore throat aperture radii (r35) values were established for core and log data obtained from 26 wells from the Funing Formation, Gaoji Oilfield, Subei Basin, China. The present study refines predicted PFUs at logged (0.125-m) intervals, whose scale is much smaller than routine methods. Meanwhile, three-dimensional models are built using sequential indicator simulation to characterize PFUs in wells. Four distinct PFUs are classified and located based on the statistical methodology of cluster analysis, and each PFU has different seepage ability. The results of this study demonstrate the obtained models are able to quantify reservoir heterogeneity. Due to different petrophysical characteristics and seepage ability, PFUs have a significant impact on the distribution of the remaining oil. Considering these allows a more accurate understanding of reservoir quality, especially within non-marine sandstone reservoirs.
Automatic optimization of well locations in a North Sea fractured chalk reservoir using a front tracking reservoir simulator

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rian, D.T.; Hage, A.

1994-12-31

A numerical simulator is often used as a reservoir management tool. One of its main purposes is to aid in the evaluation of number of wells, well locations and start time for wells. Traditionally, the optimization of a field development is done by a manual trial and error process. In this paper, an example of an automated technique is given. The core in the automization process is the reservoir simulator Frontline. Frontline is based on front tracking techniques, which makes it fast and accurate compared to traditional finite difference simulators. Due to its CPU-efficiency the simulator has been coupled withmore » an optimization module, which enables automatic optimization of location of wells, number of wells and start-up times. The simulator was used as an alternative method in the evaluation of waterflooding in a North Sea fractured chalk reservoir. Since Frontline, in principle, is 2D, Buckley-Leverett pseudo functions were used to represent the 3rd dimension. The area full field simulation model was run with up to 25 wells for 20 years in less than one minute of Vax 9000 CPU-time. The automatic Frontline evaluation indicated that a peripheral waterflood could double incremental recovery compared to a central pattern drive.« less
Impacts of boreal hydroelectric reservoirs on seasonal climate and precipitation recycling as simulated by the CRCM5: a case study of the La Grande River watershed, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Irambona, C.; Music, B.; Nadeau, D. F.; Mahdi, T. F.; Strachan, I. B.

2018-02-01

Located in northern Quebec, Canada, eight hydroelectric reservoirs of a 9782-km2 maximal area cover 6.4% of the La Grande watershed. This study investigates the changes brought by the impoundment of these reservoirs on seasonal climate and precipitation recycling. Two 30-year climate simulations, corresponding to pre- and post-impoundment conditions, were used. They were generated with the fifth-generation Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5), fully coupled to a 1D lake model (FLake). Seasonal temperatures and annual energy budget were generally well reproduced by the model, except in spring when a cold bias, probably related to the overestimation of snow cover, was seen. The difference in 2-m temperature shows that reservoirs induce localized warming in winter (+0.7 ± 0.02 °C) and cooling in the summer (-0.3 ± 0.02 °C). The available energy at the surface increases throughout the year, mostly due to a decrease in surface albedo. Fall latent and sensible heat fluxes are enhanced due to additional energy storage and availability in summer and spring. The changes in precipitation and runoff are within the model internal variability. At the watershed scale, reservoirs induce an additional evaporation of only 5.9 mm year-1 (2%). We use Brubaker's precipitation recycling model to estimate how much of the precipitation is recycled within the watershed. In both simulations, the maximal precipitation recycling occurs in July (less than 6%), indicating weak land-atmosphere coupling. Reservoirs do not seem to affect this coupling, as precipitation recycling only decreased by 0.6% in July.
High-Performance Integrated Control of water quality and quantity in urban water reservoirs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galelli, S.; Castelletti, A.; Goedbloed, A.

2015-11-01

This paper contributes a novel High-Performance Integrated Control framework to support the real-time operation of urban water supply storages affected by water quality problems. We use a 3-D, high-fidelity simulation model to predict the main water quality dynamics and inform a real-time controller based on Model Predictive Control. The integration of the simulation model into the control scheme is performed by a model reduction process that identifies a low-order, dynamic emulator running 4 orders of magnitude faster. The model reduction, which relies on a semiautomatic procedural approach integrating time series clustering and variable selection algorithms, generates a compact and physically meaningful emulator that can be coupled with the controller. The framework is used to design the hourly operation of Marina Reservoir, a 3.2 Mm3 storm-water-fed reservoir located in the center of Singapore, operated for drinking water supply and flood control. Because of its recent formation from a former estuary, the reservoir suffers from high salinity levels, whose behavior is modeled with Delft3D-FLOW. Results show that our control framework reduces the minimum salinity levels by nearly 40% and cuts the average annual deficit of drinking water supply by about 2 times the active storage of the reservoir (about 4% of the total annual demand).
Field-scale and wellbore modeling of compaction-induced casing failures

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hilbert, L.B. Jr.; Gwinn, R.L.; Moroney, T.A.

1999-06-01

Presented in this paper are the results and verification of field- and wellbore-scale large deformation, elasto-plastic, geomechanical finite element models of reservoir compaction and associated casing damage. The models were developed as part of a multidisciplinary team project to reduce the number of costly well failures in the diatomite reservoir of the South Belridge Field near Bakersfield, California. Reservoir compaction of high porosity diatomite rock induces localized shearing deformations on horizontal weak-rock layers and geologic unconformities. The localized shearing deformations result in casing damage or failure. Two-dimensional, field-scale finite element models were used to develop relationships between field operations, surfacemore » subsidence, and shear-induced casing damage. Pore pressures were computed for eighteen years of simulated production and water injection, using a three-dimensional reservoir simulator. The pore pressures were input to the two-dimensional geomechanical field-scale model. Frictional contact surfaces were used to model localized shear deformations. To capture the complex casing-cement-rock interaction that governs casing damage and failure, three-dimensional models of a wellbore were constructed, including a frictional sliding surface to model localized shear deformation. Calculations were compared to field data for verification of the models.« less
Silurian "Clinton" Sandstone Reservoir Characterization for Evaluation of CO2-EOR Potential in the East Canton Oil Field, Ohio

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Riley, Ronald; Wicks, John; Perry, Christopher

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the efficacy of using CO2-enhanced oil recovery (EOR) in the East Canton oil field (ECOF). Discovered in 1947, the ECOF in northeastern Ohio has produced approximately 95 million barrels (MMbbl) of oil from the Silurian “Clinton” sandstone. The original oil-in-place (OOIP) for this field was approximately 1.5 billion bbl and this study estimates by modeling known reservoir parameters, that between 76 and 279 MMbbl of additional oil could be produced through secondary recovery in this field, depending on the fluid and formation response to CO2 injection. A CO2 cyclic test (“Huff-n-Puff”) wasmore » conducted on a well in Stark County to test the injectivity in a “Clinton”-producing oil well in the ECOF and estimate the dispersion or potential breakthrough of the CO2 to surrounding wells. Eighty-one tons of CO2 (1.39 MMCF) were injected over a 20-hour period, after which the well was shut in for a 32-day “soak” period before production was resumed. Results demonstrated injection rates of 1.67 MMCF of gas per day, which was much higher than anticipated and no CO2 was detected in gas samples taken from eight immediately offsetting observation wells. All data collected during this test was analyzed, interpreted, and incorporated into the reservoir characterization study and used to develop the geologic model. The geologic model was used as input into a reservoir simulation performed by Fekete Associates, Inc., to estimate the behavior of reservoir fluids when large quantities of CO2 are injected into the “Clinton” sandstone. Results strongly suggest that the majority of the injected CO2 entered the matrix porosity of the reservoir pay zones, where it diffused into the oil. Evidence includes: (A) the volume of injected CO2 greatly exceeded the estimated capacity of the hydraulic fracture and natural fractures; (B) there was a gradual injection and pressure rate build-up during the test; (C) there was a subsequent, gradual flashout of the CO2 within the reservoir during the ensuing monitored production period; and (D) a large amount of CO2 continually off-gassed from wellhead oil samples collected as late as 3½ months after injection. After the test well was returned to production, it produced 174 bbl of oil during a 60-day period (September 22 to November 21, 2008), which represents an estimated 58 percent increase in incremental oil production over preinjection estimates of production under normal, conditions. The geologic model was used in a reservoir simulation model for a 700-acre model area and to design a pilot to test the model. The model was designed to achieve a 1-year response time and a five-year simulation period. The reservoir simulation modeling indicated that the injection wells could enhance oil production and lead to an additional 20 percent recovery in the pilot area over a five-year period. The base case estimated that by injecting 500 MCF per day of CO2 into each of the four corner wells, 26,000 STBO would be produced by the central producer over the five-year period. This would compare to 3,000 STBO if a new well were drilled without the benefit of CO2 injection. This study has added significant knowledge to the reservoir characterization of the “Clinton” in the ECOF and succeeded in identifying a range on CO2-EOR potential. However, additional data on fluid properties (PVT and swelling test), fractures (oriented core and microseis), and reservoir characteristics (relative permeability, capillary pressure, and wet ability) are needed to further narrow the uncertainties and refine the reservoir model and simulation. After collection of this data and refinement of the model and simulation, it is recommended that a larger scale cyclic- CO2 injection test be conducted to better determine the efficacy of CO2-EOR in the “Clinton” reservoir in the ECOF.« less

Silurian "Clinton" Sandstone Reservoir Characterization for Evaluation of CO2-EOR Potential in the East Canton Oil Field, Ohio

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ronald Riley; John Wicks; Christopher Perry

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the efficacy of using CO2-enhanced oil recovery (EOR) in the East Canton oil field (ECOF). Discovered in 1947, the ECOF in northeastern Ohio has produced approximately 95 million barrels (MMbbl) of oil from the Silurian 'Clinton' sandstone. The original oil-in-place (OOIP) for this field was approximately 1.5 billion bbl and this study estimates by modeling known reservoir parameters, that between 76 and 279 MMbbl of additional oil could be produced through secondary recovery in this field, depending on the fluid and formation response to CO2 injection. A CO2 cyclic test ('Huff-n-Puff') wasmore » conducted on a well in Stark County to test the injectivity in a 'Clinton'-producing oil well in the ECOF and estimate the dispersion or potential breakthrough of the CO2 to surrounding wells. Eighty-one tons of CO2 (1.39 MMCF) were injected over a 20-hour period, after which the well was shut in for a 32-day 'soak' period before production was resumed. Results demonstrated injection rates of 1.67 MMCF of gas per day, which was much higher than anticipated and no CO2 was detected in gas samples taken from eight immediately offsetting observation wells. All data collected during this test was analyzed, interpreted, and incorporated into the reservoir characterization study and used to develop the geologic model. The geologic model was used as input into a reservoir simulation performed by Fekete Associates, Inc., to estimate the behavior of reservoir fluids when large quantities of CO2 are injected into the 'Clinton' sandstone. Results strongly suggest that the majority of the injected CO2 entered the matrix porosity of the reservoir pay zones, where it diffused into the oil. Evidence includes: (A) the volume of injected CO2 greatly exceeded the estimated capacity of the hydraulic fracture and natural fractures; (B) there was a gradual injection and pressure rate build-up during the test; (C) there was a subsequent, gradual flashout of the CO2 within the reservoir during the ensuing monitored production period; and (D) a large amount of CO2 continually off-gassed from wellhead oil samples collected as late as 3 1/2 months after injection. After the test well was returned to production, it produced 174 bbl of oil during a 60-day period (September 22 to November 21, 2008), which represents an estimated 58 percent increase in incremental oil production over preinjection estimates of production under normal, conditions. The geologic model was used in a reservoir simulation model for a 700-acre model area and to design a pilot to test the model. The model was designed to achieve a 1-year response time and a five-year simulation period. The reservoir simulation modeling indicated that the injection wells could enhance oil production and lead to an additional 20 percent recovery in the pilot area over a five-year period. The base case estimated that by injecting 500 MCF per day of CO2 into each of the four corner wells, 26,000 STBO would be produced by the central producer over the five-year period. This would compare to 3,000 STBO if a new well were drilled without the benefit of CO2 injection. This study has added significant knowledge to the reservoir characterization of the 'Clinton' in the ECOF and succeeded in identifying a range on CO2-EOR potential. However, additional data on fluid properties (PVT and swelling test), fractures (oriented core and microseis), and reservoir characteristics (relative permeability, capillary pressure, and wet ability) are needed to further narrow the uncertainties and refine the reservoir model and simulation. After collection of this data and refinement of the model and simulation, it is recommended that a larger scale cyclic-CO2 injection test be conducted to better determine the efficacy of CO2-EOR in the 'Clinton' reservoir in the ECOF.« less
Classical electrical and hydraulic Windkessel models validate physiological calculations of Windkessel (reservoir) pressure.

PubMed

Sridharan, Sarup S; Burrowes, Lindsay M; Bouwmeester, J Christopher; Wang, Jiun-Jr; Shrive, Nigel G; Tyberg, John V

2012-05-01

Our "reservoir-wave approach" to arterial hemodynamics holds that measured arterial pressure should be considered to be the sum of a volume-related pressure (i.e., reservoir pressure, P(reservoir)) and a wave-related pressure (P(excess)). Because some have questioned whether P(reservoir) (and, by extension, P(excess)) is a real component of measured physiological pressure, it was important to demonstrate that P(reservoir) is implicit in Westerhof's classical electrical and hydraulic models of the 3-element Windkessel. To test the validity of our P(reservoir) determinations, we studied a freeware simulation of the electrical model and a benchtop recreation of the hydraulic model, respectively, measuring the voltage and the pressure distal to the proximal resistance. These measurements were then compared with P(reservoir), as calculated from physiological data. Thus, the first objective of this study was to demonstrate that respective voltage and pressure changes could be measured that were similar to calculated physiological values of P(reservoir). The second objective was to confirm previous predictions with respect to the specific effects of systematically altering proximal resistance, distal resistance, and capacitance. The results of this study validate P(reservoir) and, thus, the reservoir-wave approach.
The effects of Missouri River mainstem reservoir system operations on 2011 flooding using a Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model: Chapter K in 2011 Floods of the Central United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Haj, Adel E.; Christiansen, Daniel E.; Viger, Roland J.

2014-01-01

In 2011 the Missouri River Mainstem Reservoir System (Reservoir System) experienced the largest volume of flood waters since the initiation of record-keeping in the nineteenth century. The high levels of runoff from both snowpack and rainfall stressed the Reservoir System’s capacity to control flood waters and caused massive damage and disruption along the river. The flooding and resulting damage along the Missouri River brought increased public attention to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) operation of the Reservoir System. To help understand the effects of Reservoir System operation on the 2011 Missouri River flood flows, the U.S. Geological Survey Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System was used to construct a model of the Missouri River Basin to simulate flows at streamgages and dam locations with the effects of Reservoir System operation (regulation) on flow removed. Statistical tests indicate that the Missouri River Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model is a good fit for high-flow monthly and annual stream flow estimation. A comparison of simulated unregulated flows and measured regulated flows show that regulation greatly reduced spring peak flow events, consolidated two summer peak flow events to one with a markedly decreased magnitude, and maintained higher than normal base flow beyond the end of water year 2011. Further comparison of results indicate that without regulation, flows greater than those measured would have occurred and been sustained for much longer, frequently in excess of 30 days, and flooding associated with high-flow events would have been more severe.
Time-lapse seismic waveform modelling and attribute analysis using hydromechanical models for a deep reservoir undergoing depletion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Y.-X.; Angus, D. A.; Blanchard, T. D.; Wang, G.-L.; Yuan, S.-Y.; Garcia, A.

2016-04-01

Extraction of fluids from subsurface reservoirs induces changes in pore pressure, leading not only to geomechanical changes, but also perturbations in seismic velocities and hence observable seismic attributes. Time-lapse seismic analysis can be used to estimate changes in subsurface hydromechanical properties and thus act as a monitoring tool for geological reservoirs. The ability to observe and quantify changes in fluid, stress and strain using seismic techniques has important implications for monitoring risk not only for petroleum applications but also for geological storage of CO2 and nuclear waste scenarios. In this paper, we integrate hydromechanical simulation results with rock physics models and full-waveform seismic modelling to assess time-lapse seismic attribute resolution for dynamic reservoir characterization and hydromechanical model calibration. The time-lapse seismic simulations use a dynamic elastic reservoir model based on a North Sea deep reservoir undergoing large pressure changes. The time-lapse seismic traveltime shifts and time strains calculated from the modelled and processed synthetic data sets (i.e. pre-stack and post-stack data) are in a reasonable agreement with the true earth models, indicating the feasibility of using 1-D strain rock physics transform and time-lapse seismic processing methodology. Estimated vertical traveltime shifts for the overburden and the majority of the reservoir are within ±1 ms of the true earth model values, indicating that the time-lapse technique is sufficiently accurate for predicting overburden velocity changes and hence geomechanical effects. Characterization of deeper structure below the overburden becomes less accurate, where more advanced time-lapse seismic processing and migration is needed to handle the complex geometry and strong lateral induced velocity changes. Nevertheless, both migrated full-offset pre-stack and near-offset post-stack data image the general features of both the overburden and reservoir units. More importantly, the results from this study indicate that integrated seismic and hydromechanical modelling can help constrain time-lapse uncertainty and hence reduce risk due to fluid extraction and injection.
A Bayesian model averaging method for the derivation of reservoir operating rules

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Jingwen; Liu, Pan; Wang, Hao; Lei, Xiaohui; Zhou, Yanlai

2015-09-01

Because the intrinsic dynamics among optimal decision making, inflow processes and reservoir characteristics are complex, functional forms of reservoir operating rules are always determined subjectively. As a result, the uncertainty of selecting form and/or model involved in reservoir operating rules must be analyzed and evaluated. In this study, we analyze the uncertainty of reservoir operating rules using the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) model. Three popular operating rules, namely piecewise linear regression, surface fitting and a least-squares support vector machine, are established based on the optimal deterministic reservoir operation. These individual models provide three-member decisions for the BMA combination, enabling the 90% release interval to be estimated by the Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation. A case study of China's the Baise reservoir shows that: (1) the optimal deterministic reservoir operation, superior to any reservoir operating rules, is used as the samples to derive the rules; (2) the least-squares support vector machine model is more effective than both piecewise linear regression and surface fitting; (3) BMA outperforms any individual model of operating rules based on the optimal trajectories. It is revealed that the proposed model can reduce the uncertainty of operating rules, which is of great potential benefit in evaluating the confidence interval of decisions.
Simulation of the mulltizones clastic reservoir: A case study of Upper Qishn Clastic Member, Masila Basin-Yemen

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khamis, Mohamed; Marta, Ebrahim Bin; Al Natifi, Ali; Fattah, Khaled Abdel; Lashin, Aref

2017-06-01

The Upper Qishn Clastic Member is one of the main oil-bearing reservoirs that are located at Masila Basin-Yemen. It produces oil from many zones with different reservoir properties. The aim of this study is to simulate and model the Qishn sandstone reservoir to provide more understanding of its properties. The available, core plugs, petrophysical, PVT, pressure and production datasets, as well as the seismic structural and geologic information, are all integrated and used in the simulation process. Eclipse simulator was used as a powerful tool for reservoir modeling. A simplified approach based on a pseudo steady-state productivity index and a material balance relationship between the aquifer pressure and the cumulative influx, is applied. The petrophysical properties of the Qishn sandstone reservoir are mainly investigated based on the well logging and core plug analyses. Three reservoir zones of good hydrocarbon potentiality are indicated and named from above to below as S1A, S1C and S2. Among of these zones, the S1A zone attains the best petrophysical and reservoir quality properties. It has an average hydrocarbon saturation of more than 65%, high effective porosity up to 20% and good permeability record (66 mD). The reservoir structure is represented by faulted anticline at the middle of the study with a down going decrease in geometry from S1A zone to S2 zone. It is limited by NE-SW and E-W bounding faults, with a weak aquifer connection from the east. The analysis of pressure and PVT data has revealed that the reservoir fluid type is dead oil with very low gas liquid ratio (GLR). The simulation results indicate heterogeneous reservoir associated with weak aquifer, supported by high initial water saturation and high water cut. Initial oil in place is estimated to be around 628 MM BBL, however, the oil recovery during the period of production is very low (<10%) because of the high water cut due to the fractures associated with many faults. Hence, secondary and tertiary methods are needed to enhance the oil recovery. Water flooding is recommended as the first step of oil recovery enhancement by changing some of high water cut wells to injectors.
Koenraad Beckers | NREL

Science.gov Websites

postdoctoral researcher working on geothermal energy and CSP projects. His interests include heat and mass geothermal energy systems modeling, reservoir simulation, and economic analysis, as well as on the design and transfer, energy conversion and storage systems, reservoir modeling, and direct-use applications of thermal
Modelling of water inflow to the Kolyma reservoir in historical and future climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lebedeva, Liudmila; Makarieva, Olga; Ushakov, Mikhail

2017-04-01

Kolyma hydropower plant is the most important electricity producer in the Magadan region, North of Russian Far East. North-Eastern Russia has sparse hydrometeorological network. The density is one hydrological gauge per 10 250 km2. Assessment of water inflow to the Kolyma reservoir is complicated by mountainous relief with altitudes more than 2000 m a.s.l., continuous permafrost and sparse data. The study aimed at application of process-based hydrological model to simulate water inflow to the Kolyma reservoir in historical time period and according to projections of future climate. Watershed area of the Kolyma reservoir is 61 500 km2. Dominant landscapes are mountainous tundra and larch forest. The Hydrograph model used in the study explicitly simulates heat and water dynamics in the soil profile thus is able to reflect ground thawing/freezing and change of soil storage capacity through the summer in permafrost environments. The key model parameters are vegetation and soil properties that relate to land surface classes. They are assessed based on field observations and literature data, don't need calibration and could be transferred to other basins with similar landscapes. Model time step is daily, meteorological input are air temperature, precipitation and air moisture. Parameter set that was firstly developed in the small research basins of the Kolyma water-balance station was transferred to middle and large river basins in the region. Precipitation dependences on altitude and air temperature inversions are accounted for in the modelling routine. Successful model application to six river basins with areas from 65 to 42600 km2 within the watershed of the Kolyma reservoir suggests that simulation results for the water inflow to the reservoir are satisfactory. Modelling according to projections of future climate change showed that air temperature increase will likely lead to earlier snowmelt and lower freshet peaks but doesn't change total inflow volume. The study was partially supported by Russian Foundation for Basic Research (project No 15-35-21146 mola and 16-35-50061)
Computer program for the reservoir model of metabolic crossroads.

PubMed

Ribeiro, J M; Juzgado, D; Crespo, E; Sillero, A

1990-01-01

A program containing 344 sentences, written in BASIC and adapted to run in personal computers (PC) has been developed to simulate the reservoir model of metabolic crossroads. The program draws the holes of the reservoir with shapes reflecting the Vmax, Km (S0.5) and cooperativity coefficients (n) of the enzymes and calculates both the actual velocities and the percentage of contribution of every enzyme to the overall removal of their common substrate.
Estimating long-term evolution of fine sediment budget in the Iffezheim reservoir using a simplified method based on classification of boundary conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Qing; Hillebrand, Gudrun; Hoffmann, Thomas; Hinkelmann, Reinhard

2017-04-01

The Iffezheim reservoir is the last of a series of reservoirs on the Upper Rhine in Germany. Since its construction in 1977, approximately 115,000 m3 of fine sediments accumulate annually in the weir channel (WSA Freiburg, 2011). In order to obtain detailed information about the space-time development of the topography, the riverbed evolution was measured using echo sounding by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV). 37 sets of sounding data, which have been obtained between July 2000 and February 2011, were used in this research. In a previous work, the morphodynamic processes in the Iffezheim reservoir were investigated using a high-resolution 3D model. The 3D computational fluid dynamic software SSIIM II (Olsen, 2014) was used for this purpose (Zhang et al., 2015). The model was calibrated using field measurements. A computational time of 14.5 hours, using 24 cores of a 2.4 GHz reference computer, was needed for simulating a period of three months on a grid of 238,013 cells. Thus, the long-term (e.g. 30 years) simulation of morphodynamics of the fine sediment budget in the Iffezheim reservoir with this model is not feasible. A low complexity approach of "classification of the boundary conditions of discharge and suspended sediment concentration" was applied in this research for a long-term numerical simulation. The basic idea of the approach is to replace instationary or quasi-steady simulations of deposition by a limited series of stationary ones. For these, daily volume changes were calculated considering representative discharge and concentration. Representative boundary conditions were determined by subdividing time series of discharge and concentration into classes and using central values per class. The amount of the deposition in the reservoir for a certain period can then be obtained by adding up the calculated daily depositions. This approach was applied to 10 short-term periods, between two successive echo sounding measurements, and 2 longer ones, which include several short-term periods. Short-term periods spread from 1 to 3 months, whereas long-term periods indicate 2 and 5 years. The simulation results showed an acceptable agreement with the measurements. It was also found that the long-term periods had less deviation to the measurements than the short ones. This simplified method exhibited clear savings in computational time compared to the instationary simulations; in this case only 3 hours of computational time were needed for 5 years simulation period using the reference computer mentioned above. Further research is needed with respect to the limits of this linear approach, i.e. with respect to the frequency with which the set of steady simulations has to be updated due to significant changes in morphology and in turn in hydraulics. Yet, the preliminary results are promising, suggesting that the developed approach is very suitable for a long-term simulation of riverbed evolution. REFERENCES Olsen, N.R.B. 2014. A three-dimensional numerical model for simulation of sediment movements in water intakes with multiblock option. Version 1 and 2. User's manual. Department of Hydraulic and Environmental Engineering. The Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway. Wasser- und Schifffahrtsamt (WSA) Freiburg. 2011. Sachstandsbericht oberer Wehrkanal Staustufe Iffezheim. Technical report - Upper weir channel of the Iffezheim hydropower reservoir. Zhang, Q., Hillebrand, G. Moser, H. & Hinkelmann, R. 2015. Simulation of non-uniform sediment transport in a German Reservoir with the SSIIM Model and sensitivity analysis. Proceedings of the 36th IAHR World Congress. The Hague, The Netherland.
Coupling geostatistics to detailed reservoir description allows better visualization and more accurate characterization/simulation of turbidite reservoirs: Elk Hills oil field, California

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Allan, M.E.; Wilson, M.L.; Wightman, J.

1996-12-31

The Elk Hills giant oilfield, located in the southern San Joaquin Valley of California, has produced 1.1 billion barrels of oil from Miocene and shallow Pliocene reservoirs. 65% of the current 64,000 BOPD production is from the pressure-supported, deeper Miocene turbidite sands. In the turbidite sands of the 31 S structure, large porosity & permeability variations in the Main Body B and Western 31 S sands cause problems with the efficiency of the waterflooding. These variations have now been quantified and visualized using geostatistics. The end result is a more detailed reservoir characterization for simulation. Traditional reservoir descriptions based onmore » marker correlations, cross-sections and mapping do not provide enough detail to capture the short-scale stratigraphic heterogeneity needed for adequate reservoir simulation. These deterministic descriptions are inadequate to tie with production data as the thinly bedded sand/shale sequences blur into a falsely homogenous picture. By studying the variability of the geologic & petrophysical data vertically within each wellbore and spatially from well to well, a geostatistical reservoir description has been developed. It captures the natural variability of the sands and shales that was lacking from earlier work. These geostatistical studies allow the geologic and petrophysical characteristics to be considered in a probabilistic model. The end-product is a reservoir description that captures the variability of the reservoir sequences and can be used as a more realistic starting point for history matching and reservoir simulation.« less
Coupling geostatistics to detailed reservoir description allows better visualization and more accurate characterization/simulation of turbidite reservoirs: Elk Hills oil field, California

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Allan, M.E.; Wilson, M.L.; Wightman, J.

1996-01-01

The Elk Hills giant oilfield, located in the southern San Joaquin Valley of California, has produced 1.1 billion barrels of oil from Miocene and shallow Pliocene reservoirs. 65% of the current 64,000 BOPD production is from the pressure-supported, deeper Miocene turbidite sands. In the turbidite sands of the 31 S structure, large porosity permeability variations in the Main Body B and Western 31 S sands cause problems with the efficiency of the waterflooding. These variations have now been quantified and visualized using geostatistics. The end result is a more detailed reservoir characterization for simulation. Traditional reservoir descriptions based on markermore » correlations, cross-sections and mapping do not provide enough detail to capture the short-scale stratigraphic heterogeneity needed for adequate reservoir simulation. These deterministic descriptions are inadequate to tie with production data as the thinly bedded sand/shale sequences blur into a falsely homogenous picture. By studying the variability of the geologic petrophysical data vertically within each wellbore and spatially from well to well, a geostatistical reservoir description has been developed. It captures the natural variability of the sands and shales that was lacking from earlier work. These geostatistical studies allow the geologic and petrophysical characteristics to be considered in a probabilistic model. The end-product is a reservoir description that captures the variability of the reservoir sequences and can be used as a more realistic starting point for history matching and reservoir simulation.« less
Modelling the impacts of altered management practices, land use and climate changes on the water quality of the Millbrook catchment-reservoir system in South Australia.

PubMed

Nguyen, Hong Hanh; Recknagel, Friedrich; Meyer, Wayne; Frizenschaf, Jacqueline; Shrestha, Manoj Kumar

2017-11-01

Sustainable management of drinking water reservoirs requires taking into account the potential effects of their catchments' development. This study is an attempt to estimate the daily patterns of nutrients transport in the catchment - reservoir systems through the application of the ensemble of complementary models SWAT-SALMO. SWAT quantifies flow, nitrate and phosphate loadings originating in catchments before entering downstream reservoirs meanwhile SALMO determines phosphate, nitrate, and chlorophyll-a concentrations within the reservoirs. The study applies to the semi-arid Millbrook catchment-reservoir system that supplies drinking water to north-eastern suburbs of Adelaide, South Australia. The catchment hosts viti- and horticultural land uses. The warm-monomictic, mesotrophic reservoir is artificially aerated in summer. After validating the simulation results for both Millbrook catchment and reservoir, a comprehensive scenario analysis has been conducted to reveal cascading effects of altered management practices, land uses and climate conditions on water quality in the reservoir. Results suggest that the effect on reservoir condition in summer would be severe, most likely resulting in chlorophyll-a concentrations of greater than 40 μg/l if the artificial destratification was not applied from early summer. A 50% curbing of water diversion from an external pipeline to the catchment will slightly limit chlorophyll-a concentrations by 1.22% as an effect of reduced inflow phosphate loads. The simulation of prospective land use scenarios converting 50% of present pasture in the Millbrook catchment into residential and orchards areas indicates an increase of summer chlorophyll-a concentrations by 9.5-107.9%, respectively in the reservoir. Global warming scenarios based on the high emission simulated by SWAT-SALMO did result in earlier growth of chlorophyll-a but overall the effects on water quality in the Millbrook reservoir was not significant. However scenarios combining global warming and land use changes resulted in significant eutrophication effects in the reservoir, especially in the unmanaged condition with stratification in summer. This study has demonstrated that complementary model ensembles like SWAT-SALMO allow to comprehend more realistically cascading effects of distinct catchment processes on internal reservoir's processes, and facilitate integrated management scenarios. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Radicals and Reservoirs in the GMI Chemistry and Transport Model: Comparison to Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Douglass, Anne R.; Stolarski, Richard S.; Strahan, Susan E.; Connell, Peter S.

2004-01-01

We have used a three-dimensional chemistry and transport model (CTM), developed under the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI), to carry out two simulations of the composition of the stratosphere under changing halogen loading for 1995 through 2030. The two simulations differ only in that one uses meteorological fields from a general circulation model while the other uses meteorological fields from a data assimilation system. A single year's winds and temperatures are repeated for each 36-year simulation. We compare results from these two simulations with an extensive collection of data from satellite and ground-based measurements for 1993-2000. Comparisons of simulated fields with observations of radical and reservoir species for some of the major ozone-destroying compounds are of similar quality for both simulations. Differences in the upper stratosphere, caused by transport of total reactive nitrogen and methane, impact the balance among the ozone loss processes and the sensitivity of the two simulations to the change in composition.
Numerical simulations of the Macondo well blowout reveal strong control of oil flow by reservoir permeability and exsolution of gas

PubMed Central

Oldenburg, Curtis M.; Freifeld, Barry M.; Pruess, Karsten; Pan, Lehua; Finsterle, Stefan; Moridis, George J.

2012-01-01

In response to the urgent need for estimates of the oil and gas flow rate from the Macondo well MC252-1 blowout, we assembled a small team and carried out oil and gas flow simulations using the TOUGH2 codes over two weeks in mid-2010. The conceptual model included the oil reservoir and the well with a top boundary condition located at the bottom of the blowout preventer. We developed a fluid properties module (Eoil) applicable to a simple two-phase and two-component oil-gas system. The flow of oil and gas was simulated using T2Well, a coupled reservoir-wellbore flow model, along with iTOUGH2 for sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification. The most likely oil flow rate estimated from simulations based on the data available in early June 2010 was about 100,000 bbl/d (barrels per day) with a corresponding gas flow rate of 300 MMscf/d (million standard cubic feet per day) assuming the well was open to the reservoir over 30 m of thickness. A Monte Carlo analysis of reservoir and fluid properties provided an uncertainty distribution with a long tail extending down to 60,000 bbl/d of oil (170 MMscf/d of gas). The flow rate was most strongly sensitive to reservoir permeability. Conceptual model uncertainty was also significant, particularly with regard to the length of the well that was open to the reservoir. For fluid-entry interval length of 1.5 m, the oil flow rate was about 56,000 bbl/d. Sensitivity analyses showed that flow rate was not very sensitive to pressure-drop across the blowout preventer due to the interplay between gas exsolution and oil flow rate. PMID:21730177
MeProRisk - a Joint Venture for Minimizing Risk in Geothermal Reservoir Development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clauser, C.; Marquart, G.

2009-12-01

Exploration and development of geothermal reservoirs for the generation of electric energy involves high engineering and economic risks due to the need for 3-D geophysical surface surveys and deep boreholes. The MeProRisk project provides a strategy guideline for reducing these risks by combining cross-disciplinary information from different specialists: Scientists from three German universities and two private companies contribute with new methods in seismic modeling and interpretation, numerical reservoir simulation, estimation of petrophysical parameters, and 3-D visualization. The approach chosen in MeProRisk consists in considering prospecting and developing of geothermal reservoirs as an iterative process. A first conceptual model for fluid flow and heat transport simulation can be developed based on limited available initial information on geology and rock properties. In the next step, additional data is incorporated which is based on (a) new seismic interpretation methods designed for delineating fracture systems, (b) statistical studies on large numbers of rock samples for estimating reliable rock parameters, (c) in situ estimates of the hydraulic conductivity tensor. This results in a continuous refinement of the reservoir model where inverse modelling of fluid flow and heat transport allows infering the uncertainty and resolution of the model at each iteration step. This finally yields a calibrated reservoir model which may be used to direct further exploration by optimizing additional borehole locations, estimate the uncertainty of key operational and economic parameters, and optimize the long-term operation of a geothermal resrvoir.
Water Footprint of Hydroelectricity: A Case Study of Two Large Canadian Boreal Watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Irambona, C.; Music, B.; Nadeau, D.; Mahdi, T. F.; Strachan, I. B.

2015-12-01

20% of Canada's total freshwater is located in the province of Quebec, where 30% of the country's energy is produced from hydropower. Hydroelectric generation uses a considerable amount of water through evaporation from the reservoirs. The blue water footprint is an indicator of the annual freshwater consumption related to hydropower production. Although environmental effects of reservoir impounding have been previously investigated, their impacts on local and regional evapotranspiration are still not well understood due to the lack of long-term observation data. This study aims to assess the blue water footprint of two large hydroelectric systems located in the Canadian boreal forest. To do so, we use hydro-meteorological data from two specially designed climate simulations (a 'no-reservoir' and a 'post-impoundment' simulation) performed by the fifth generation of the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5) driven by the ERA-Interim reanalysis. Land-surface processes in the CRCM5 are parameterized by the Canadian Land Surface Scheme (CLASS V3.6), while surface fluxes over the water bodies are simulated by the 1-D lake model (Flake). A 'no-reservoir' and a 'post-impoundment' simulation are carried by adjusting the water fraction on the reservoir grids. Both simulations cover a 42 years period (1970-2012) at 0.11° horizontal resolution, consisting of 300 x 300 grid points centered on the province of Quebec. The two watersheds under study (200 000 km² total) are located in Northern Quebec (49-54°N), Canada, where more than 42% of the province power generation capacity is installed with eight reservoirs covering a total area of 10 000 km². A first validation of the 'post-impoundment' simulation is performed using micrometeorological ground observations, complemented with available hydro-meteorological data from Environment Canada weather stations. Then, each reservoir water footprint is calculated using the 'post-impoundment' simulation. Finally, the net evapotranspiration and the pre and post impoundment water budgets are assessed on the watershed scale. Results from this study are expected to be useful for water resources management in Quebec and other similar boreal environments.
An Embedded 3D Fracture Modeling Approach for Simulating Fracture-Dominated Fluid Flow and Heat Transfer in Geothermal Reservoirs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Johnston, Henry; Wang, Cong; Winterfeld, Philip

An efficient modeling approach is described for incorporating arbitrary 3D, discrete fractures, such as hydraulic fractures or faults, into modeling fracture-dominated fluid flow and heat transfer in fractured geothermal reservoirs. This technique allows 3D discrete fractures to be discretized independently from surrounding rock volume and inserted explicitly into a primary fracture/matrix grid, generated without including 3D discrete fractures in prior. An effective computational algorithm is developed to discretize these 3D discrete fractures and construct local connections between 3D fractures and fracture/matrix grid blocks of representing the surrounding rock volume. The constructed gridding information on 3D fractures is then added tomore » the primary grid. This embedded fracture modeling approach can be directly implemented into a developed geothermal reservoir simulator via the integral finite difference (IFD) method or with TOUGH2 technology This embedded fracture modeling approach is very promising and computationally efficient to handle realistic 3D discrete fractures with complicated geometries, connections, and spatial distributions. Compared with other fracture modeling approaches, it avoids cumbersome 3D unstructured, local refining procedures, and increases computational efficiency by simplifying Jacobian matrix size and sparsity, while keeps sufficient accuracy. Several numeral simulations are present to demonstrate the utility and robustness of the proposed technique. Our numerical experiments show that this approach captures all the key patterns about fluid flow and heat transfer dominated by fractures in these cases. Thus, this approach is readily available to simulation of fractured geothermal reservoirs with both artificial and natural fractures.« less
Modeling and scaleup of steamflood in a heterogeneous reservoir

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dehghani, K.; Basham, W.M.; Durlofsky, L.J.

1995-11-01

A series of simulation runs was conducted for different geostatistically derived cross-sectional models to study the degree of heterogeneity required for proper modeling of steamfloods in a thick, heavy-oil reservoir with thin diatomite barriers Different methods for coarsening the most detailed models were applied, and performance predictions for the coarsened and detailed models compared. Use of a general scaleup method provided the most accurate coarse grid models.
Characterization of floodflows along the Arkansas River without regulation by Pueblo Reservoir, Portland to John Martin Reservoir, Southeastern Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Little, John R.; Bauer, Daniel P.

1981-01-01

The need for a method for estimating flow characteristics of flood hydrographs between Portland, Colo., and John Martin Reservoir has been promoted with the construction of the Pueble Reservoir. To meet this need a procedure was developed for predicting floodflow peaks, traveltimes, and volumes at any point along the Arkansas River between Portland and John Martin Reservoir without considering the existing Pueble Reservoir detention effects. A streamflow-routing model was calibrated initially and then typical flood simulations were made for the 164.8-mile study reach. Simulations were completed for varying magnitudes of floods and antecedent streamflow conditions. Multiple regression techniques were then used with simulation results as input to provide predictive relationships for food peak, volume, and traveltime. Management practices that may be used to benefit water users in the area include providing methods for the distribution and allotment of the flood waters upstream of Portland to different downstream water users according to Colorado water law and also under the Arkansas River Compact. (USGS)

Development of a precipitation-runoff model to simulate unregulated streamflow in the South Fork Flathead River Basin, Montana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chase, K.J.

2011-01-01

This report documents the development of a precipitation-runoff model for the South Fork Flathead River Basin, Mont. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model, developed in cooperation with the Bureau of Reclamation, can be used to simulate daily mean unregulated streamflow upstream and downstream from Hungry Horse Reservoir for water-resources planning. Two input files are required to run the model. The time-series data file contains daily precipitation data and daily minimum and maximum air-temperature data from climate stations in and near the South Fork Flathead River Basin. The parameter file contains values of parameters that describe the basin topography, the flow network, the distribution of the precipitation and temperature data, and the hydrologic characteristics of the basin soils and vegetation. A primary-parameter file was created for simulating streamflow during the study period (water years 1967-2005). The model was calibrated for water years 1991-2005 using the primary-parameter file. This calibration was further refined using snow-covered area data for water years 2001-05. The model then was tested for water years 1967-90. Calibration targets included mean monthly and daily mean unregulated streamflow upstream from Hungry Horse Reservoir, mean monthly unregulated streamflow downstream from Hungry Horse Reservoir, basin mean monthly solar radiation and potential evapotranspiration, and daily snapshots of basin snow-covered area. Simulated streamflow generally was in better agreement with observed streamflow at the upstream gage than at the downstream gage. Upstream from the reservoir, simulated mean annual streamflow was within 0.0 percent of observed mean annual streamflow for the calibration period and was about 2 percent higher than observed mean annual streamflow for the test period. Simulated mean April-July streamflow upstream from the reservoir was about 1 percent lower than observed streamflow for the calibration period and about 4 percent higher than observed for the test period. Downstream from the reservoir, simulated mean annual streamflow was 17 percent lower than observed streamflow for the calibration period and 12 percent lower than observed streamflow for the test period. Simulated mean April-July streamflow downstream from the reservoir was 13 percent lower than observed streamflow for the calibration period and 6 percent lower than observed streamflow for the test period. Calibrating to solar radiation, potential evapotranspiration, and snow-covered area improved the model representation of evapotranspiration, snow accumulation, and snowmelt processes. Simulated basin mean monthly solar radiation values for both the calibration and test periods were within 9 percent of observed values except during the month of December (28 percent different). Simulated basin potential evapotranspiration values for both the calibration and test periods were within 10 percent of observed values except during the months of January (100 percent different) and February (13 percent different). The larger percent errors in simulated potential evaporation occurred in the winter months when observed potential evapotranspiration values were very small; in January the observed value was 0.000 inches and in February the observed value was 0.009 inches. Simulated start of melting of the snowpack occurred at about the same time as observed start of melting. The simulated snowpack accumulated to 90-100 percent snow-covered area 1 to 3 months earlier than observed snowpack. This overestimated snowpack during the winter corresponded to underestimated streamflow during the same period. In addition to the primary-parameter file, four other parameter files were created: for a "recent" period (1991-2005), a historical period (1967-90), a "wet" period (1989-97), and a "dry" period (1998-2005). For each data file of projected precipitation and air temperature, a single parameter file can be used to simulate a s
Estimation of constitutive parameters for the Belridge Diatomite, South Belridge Diatomite Field

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fossum, A.F.; Fredrich, J.T.

1998-06-01

A cooperative national laboratory/industry research program was initiated in 1994 that improved understanding of the geomechanical processes causing well casing damage during oil production from weak, compactible formations. The program focused on the shallow diatomaceous oil reservoirs located in California`s San Joaquin Valley, and combined analyses of historical field data, experimental determination of rock mechanical behavior, and geomechanical simulation of the reservoir and overburden response to production and injection. Sandia National Laboratories` quasi-static, large-deformation structural mechanics finite element code JAS3D was used to perform the three-dimensional geomechanical simulations. One of the material models implemented in JAS3D to simulate the time-independentmore » inelastic (non-linear) deformation of geomaterials is a generalized version of the Sandler and Rubin cap plasticity model (Sandler and Rubin, 1979). This report documents the experimental rock mechanics data and material cap plasticity models that were derived to describe the Belridge Diatomite reservoir rock at the South Belridge Diatomite Field, Section 33.« less
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Keefer, Donald A.; Shaffer, Eric G.; Storsved, Brynne

A free software application, RVA, has been developed as a plugin to the US DOE-funded ParaView visualization package, to provide support in the visualization and analysis of complex reservoirs being managed using multi-fluid EOR techniques. RVA, for Reservoir Visualization and Analysis, was developed as an open-source plugin to the 64 bit Windows version of ParaView 3.14. RVA was developed at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, with contributions from the Illinois State Geological Survey, Department of Computer Science and National Center for Supercomputing Applications. RVA was designed to utilize and enhance the state-of-the-art visualization capabilities within ParaView, readily allowing jointmore » visualization of geologic framework and reservoir fluid simulation model results. Particular emphasis was placed on enabling visualization and analysis of simulation results highlighting multiple fluid phases, multiple properties for each fluid phase (including flow lines), multiple geologic models and multiple time steps. Additional advanced functionality was provided through the development of custom code to implement data mining capabilities. The built-in functionality of ParaView provides the capacity to process and visualize data sets ranging from small models on local desktop systems to extremely large models created and stored on remote supercomputers. The RVA plugin that we developed and the associated User Manual provide improved functionality through new software tools, and instruction in the use of ParaView-RVA, targeted to petroleum engineers and geologists in industry and research. The RVA web site (http://rva.cs.illinois.edu) provides an overview of functions, and the development web site (https://github.com/shaffer1/RVA) provides ready access to the source code, compiled binaries, user manual, and a suite of demonstration data sets. Key functionality has been included to support a range of reservoirs visualization and analysis needs, including: sophisticated connectivity analysis, cross sections through simulation results between selected wells, simplified volumetric calculations, global vertical exaggeration adjustments, ingestion of UTChem simulation results, ingestion of Isatis geostatistical framework models, interrogation of joint geologic and reservoir modeling results, joint visualization and analysis of well history files, location-targeted visualization, advanced correlation analysis, visualization of flow paths, and creation of static images and animations highlighting targeted reservoir features.« less
RVA: A Plugin for ParaView 3.14

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

2015-09-04

RVA is a plugin developed for the 64-bit Windows version of the ParaView 3.14 visualization package. RVA is designed to provide support in the visualization and analysis of complex reservoirs being managed using multi-fluid EOR techniques. RVA, for Reservoir Visualization and Analysis, was developed at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, with contributions from the Illinois State Geological Survey, Department of Computer Science and National Center for Supercomputing Applications. RVA was designed to utilize and enhance the state-of-the-art visualization capabilities within ParaView, readily allowing joint visualization of geologic framework and reservoir fluid simulation model results. Particular emphasis was placed onmore » enabling visualization and analysis of simulation results highlighting multiple fluid phases, multiple properties for each fluid phase (including flow lines), multiple geologic models and multiple time steps. Additional advanced functionality was provided through the development of custom code to implement data mining capabilities. The built-in functionality of ParaView provides the capacity to process and visualize data sets ranging from small models on local desktop systems to extremely large models created and stored on remote supercomputers. The RVA plugin that we developed and the associated User Manual provide improved functionality through new software tools, and instruction in the use of ParaView-RVA, targeted to petroleum engineers and geologists in industry and research. The RVA web site (http://rva.cs.illinois.edu) provides an overview of functions, and the development web site (https://github.com/shaffer1/RVA) provides ready access to the source code, compiled binaries, user manual, and a suite of demonstration data sets. Key functionality has been included to support a range of reservoirs visualization and analysis needs, including: sophisticated connectivity analysis, cross sections through simulation results between selected wells, simplified volumetric calculations, global vertical exaggeration adjustments, ingestion of UTChem simulation results, ingestion of Isatis geostatistical framework models, interrogation of joint geologic and reservoir modeling results, joint visualization and analysis of well history files, location-targeted visualization, advanced correlation analysis, visualization of flow paths, and creation of static images and animations highlighting targeted reservoir features.« less
CFD convective flow simulation of the varying properties of CO2-H2O mixtures in geothermal systems.

PubMed

Yousefi, S; Atrens, A D; Sauret, E; Dahari, M; Hooman, K

2015-01-01

Numerical simulation of a geothermal reservoir, modelled as a bottom-heated square box, filled with water-CO2 mixture is presented in this work. Furthermore, results for two limiting cases of a reservoir filled with either pure water or CO2 are presented. Effects of different parameters including CO2 concentration as well as reservoir pressure and temperature on the overall performance of the system are investigated. It has been noted that, with a fixed reservoir pressure and temperature, any increase in CO2 concentration leads to better performance, that is, stronger convection and higher heat transfer rates. With a fixed CO2 concentration, however, the reservoir pressure and temperature can significantly affect the overall heat transfer and flow rate from the reservoir. Details of such variations are documented and discussed in the present paper.
CFD Convective Flow Simulation of the Varying Properties of CO2-H2O Mixtures in Geothermal Systems

PubMed Central

Yousefi, S.; Atrens, A. D.; Sauret, E.; Dahari, M.; Hooman, K.

2015-01-01

Numerical simulation of a geothermal reservoir, modelled as a bottom-heated square box, filled with water-CO2 mixture is presented in this work. Furthermore, results for two limiting cases of a reservoir filled with either pure water or CO2 are presented. Effects of different parameters including CO2 concentration as well as reservoir pressure and temperature on the overall performance of the system are investigated. It has been noted that, with a fixed reservoir pressure and temperature, any increase in CO2 concentration leads to better performance, that is, stronger convection and higher heat transfer rates. With a fixed CO2 concentration, however, the reservoir pressure and temperature can significantly affect the overall heat transfer and flow rate from the reservoir. Details of such variations are documented and discussed in the present paper. PMID:25879074
AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO CHARACTERIZING BYPASSED OIL IN HETEROGENEOUS AND FRACTURED RESERVOIRS USING PARTITIONING TRACERS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Akhil Datta-Gupta

2003-08-01

We explore the use of efficient streamline-based simulation approaches for modeling partitioning interwell tracer tests in hydrocarbon reservoirs. Specifically, we utilize the unique features of streamline models to develop an efficient approach for interpretation and history matching of field tracer response. A critical aspect here is the underdetermined and highly ill-posed nature of the associated inverse problems. We have adopted an integrated approach whereby we combine data from multiple sources to minimize the uncertainty and non-uniqueness in the interpreted results. For partitioning interwell tracer tests, these are primarily the distribution of reservoir permeability and oil saturation distribution. A novel approachmore » to multiscale data integration using Markov Random Fields (MRF) has been developed to integrate static data sources from the reservoir such as core, well log and 3-D seismic data. We have also explored the use of a finite difference reservoir simulator, UTCHEM, for field-scale design and optimization of partitioning interwell tracer tests. The finite-difference model allows us to include detailed physics associated with reactive tracer transport, particularly those related with transverse and cross-streamline mechanisms. We have investigated the potential use of downhole tracer samplers and also the use of natural tracers for the design of partitioning tracer tests. Finally, the behavior of partitioning tracer tests in fractured reservoirs is investigated using a dual-porosity finite-difference model.« less
Geomechanical Evaluation of Thermal Impact of Injected CO 2 Temperature on a Geological Reservoir: Application to the FutureGen 2.0 Site

DOE PAGES

Bonneville, Alain; USA, Richland Washington; Nguyen, Ba Nghiep; ...

2014-12-31

The impact of temperature variations of injected CO 2 on the mechanical integrity of a reservoir is a problem rarely addressed in the design of a CO 2 storage site. The geomechanical simulation of the FutureGen 2.0 storage site presented here takes into account the complete modeling of heat exchange between the environment and CO 2 during its transport in the pipeline and injection well before reaching the reservoir, as well as its interaction with the reservoir host rock. An ad-hoc program was developed to model CO 2 transport from the power plant to the reservoir and an approach couplingmore » PNNL STOMP-CO 2 multiphase flow simulator and ABAQUS® has been developed for the reservoir model which is fully three-dimensional with four horizontal wells and variable layer thickness. The Mohr-Coulomb fracture criterion has been employed, where hydraulic fracture was predicted to occur at an integration point if the fluid pressure at the point exceeded the least compressive principal stress. Evaluation of the results shows that the fracture criterion has not been verified at any node and time step for the CO 2 temperature range predicted at the top of the injection zone.« less
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ernest A. Mancini

The University of Alabama in cooperation with Texas A&M University, McGill University, Longleaf Energy Group, Strago Petroleum Corporation, and Paramount Petroleum Company are undertaking an integrated, interdisciplinary geoscientific and engineering research project. The project is designed to characterize and model reservoir architecture, pore systems and rock-fluid interactions at the pore to field scale in Upper Jurassic Smackover reef and carbonate shoal reservoirs associated with varying degrees of relief on pre-Mesozoic basement paleohighs in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. The project effort includes the prediction of fluid flow in carbonate reservoirs through reservoir simulation modeling which utilizes geologic reservoir characterization andmore » modeling and the prediction of carbonate reservoir architecture, heterogeneity and quality through seismic imaging. The primary objective of the project is to increase the profitability, producibility and efficiency of recovery of oil from existing and undiscovered Upper Jurassic fields characterized by reef and carbonate shoals associated with pre-Mesozoic basement paleohighs. The principal research effort for Year 1 of the project has been reservoir description and characterization. This effort has included four tasks: (1) geoscientific reservoir characterization, (2) the study of rock-fluid interactions, (3) petrophysical and engineering characterization and (4) data integration. This work was scheduled for completion in Year 1. Overall, the project work is on schedule. Geoscientific reservoir characterization is essentially completed. The architecture, porosity types and heterogeneity of the reef and shoal reservoirs at Appleton and Vocation Fields have been characterized using geological and geophysical data. The study of rock-fluid interactions has been initiated. Observations regarding the diagenetic processes influencing pore system development and heterogeneity in these reef and shoal reservoirs have been made. Petrophysical and engineering property characterization is progressing. Data on reservoir production rate and pressure history at Appleton and Vocation Fields have been tabulated, and porosity data from core analysis has been correlated with porosity as observed from well log response. Data integration is on schedule, in that, the geological, geophysical, petrophysical and engineering data collected to date for Appleton and Vocation Fields have been compiled into a fieldwide digital database for reservoir characterization, modeling and simulation for the reef and carbonate shoal reservoirs for each of these fields.« less
Study of gas production from shale reservoirs with multi-stage hydraulic fracturing horizontal well considering multiple transport mechanisms.

PubMed

Guo, Chaohua; Wei, Mingzhen; Liu, Hong

2018-01-01

Development of unconventional shale gas reservoirs (SGRs) has been boosted by the advancements in two key technologies: horizontal drilling and multi-stage hydraulic fracturing. A large number of multi-stage fractured horizontal wells (MsFHW) have been drilled to enhance reservoir production performance. Gas flow in SGRs is a multi-mechanism process, including: desorption, diffusion, and non-Darcy flow. The productivity of the SGRs with MsFHW is influenced by both reservoir conditions and hydraulic fracture properties. However, rare simulation work has been conducted for multi-stage hydraulic fractured SGRs. Most of them use well testing methods, which have too many unrealistic simplifications and assumptions. Also, no systematical work has been conducted considering all reasonable transport mechanisms. And there are very few works on sensitivity studies of uncertain parameters using real parameter ranges. Hence, a detailed and systematic study of reservoir simulation with MsFHW is still necessary. In this paper, a dual porosity model was constructed to estimate the effect of parameters on shale gas production with MsFHW. The simulation model was verified with the available field data from the Barnett Shale. The following mechanisms have been considered in this model: viscous flow, slip flow, Knudsen diffusion, and gas desorption. Langmuir isotherm was used to simulate the gas desorption process. Sensitivity analysis on SGRs' production performance with MsFHW has been conducted. Parameters influencing shale gas production were classified into two categories: reservoir parameters including matrix permeability, matrix porosity; and hydraulic fracture parameters including hydraulic fracture spacing, and fracture half-length. Typical ranges of matrix parameters have been reviewed. Sensitivity analysis have been conducted to analyze the effect of the above factors on the production performance of SGRs. Through comparison, it can be found that hydraulic fracture parameters are more sensitive compared with reservoir parameters. And reservoirs parameters mainly affect the later production period. However, the hydraulic fracture parameters have a significant effect on gas production from the early period. The results of this study can be used to improve the efficiency of history matching process. Also, it can contribute to the design and optimization of hydraulic fracture treatment design in unconventional SGRs.
Study of gas production from shale reservoirs with multi-stage hydraulic fracturing horizontal well considering multiple transport mechanisms

PubMed Central

Wei, Mingzhen; Liu, Hong

2018-01-01

Development of unconventional shale gas reservoirs (SGRs) has been boosted by the advancements in two key technologies: horizontal drilling and multi-stage hydraulic fracturing. A large number of multi-stage fractured horizontal wells (MsFHW) have been drilled to enhance reservoir production performance. Gas flow in SGRs is a multi-mechanism process, including: desorption, diffusion, and non-Darcy flow. The productivity of the SGRs with MsFHW is influenced by both reservoir conditions and hydraulic fracture properties. However, rare simulation work has been conducted for multi-stage hydraulic fractured SGRs. Most of them use well testing methods, which have too many unrealistic simplifications and assumptions. Also, no systematical work has been conducted considering all reasonable transport mechanisms. And there are very few works on sensitivity studies of uncertain parameters using real parameter ranges. Hence, a detailed and systematic study of reservoir simulation with MsFHW is still necessary. In this paper, a dual porosity model was constructed to estimate the effect of parameters on shale gas production with MsFHW. The simulation model was verified with the available field data from the Barnett Shale. The following mechanisms have been considered in this model: viscous flow, slip flow, Knudsen diffusion, and gas desorption. Langmuir isotherm was used to simulate the gas desorption process. Sensitivity analysis on SGRs’ production performance with MsFHW has been conducted. Parameters influencing shale gas production were classified into two categories: reservoir parameters including matrix permeability, matrix porosity; and hydraulic fracture parameters including hydraulic fracture spacing, and fracture half-length. Typical ranges of matrix parameters have been reviewed. Sensitivity analysis have been conducted to analyze the effect of the above factors on the production performance of SGRs. Through comparison, it can be found that hydraulic fracture parameters are more sensitive compared with reservoir parameters. And reservoirs parameters mainly affect the later production period. However, the hydraulic fracture parameters have a significant effect on gas production from the early period. The results of this study can be used to improve the efficiency of history matching process. Also, it can contribute to the design and optimization of hydraulic fracture treatment design in unconventional SGRs. PMID:29320489
Simulation of operating rules and discretional decisions using a fuzzy rule-based system integrated into a water resources management model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Macian-Sorribes, Hector; Pulido-Velazquez, Manuel

2013-04-01

Water resources systems are operated, mostly, using a set of pre-defined rules not regarding, usually, to an optimal allocation in terms of water use or economic benefits, but to historical and institutional reasons. These operating policies are reproduced, commonly, as hedging rules, pack rules or zone-based operations, and simulation models can be used to test their performance under a wide range of hydrological and/or socio-economic hypothesis. Despite the high degree of acceptation and testing that these models have achieved, the actual operation of water resources systems hardly follows all the time the pre-defined rules with the consequent uncertainty on the system performance. Real-world reservoir operation is very complex, affected by input uncertainty (imprecision in forecast inflow, seepage and evaporation losses, etc.), filtered by the reservoir operator's experience and natural risk-aversion, while considering the different physical and legal/institutional constraints in order to meet the different demands and system requirements. The aim of this work is to expose a fuzzy logic approach to derive and assess the historical operation of a system. This framework uses a fuzzy rule-based system to reproduce pre-defined rules and also to match as close as possible the actual decisions made by managers. After built up, the fuzzy rule-based system can be integrated in a water resources management model, making possible to assess the system performance at the basin scale. The case study of the Mijares basin (eastern Spain) is used to illustrate the method. A reservoir operating curve regulates the two main reservoir releases (operated in a conjunctive way) with the purpose of guaranteeing a high realiability of supply to the traditional irrigation districts with higher priority (more senior demands that funded the reservoir construction). A fuzzy rule-based system has been created to reproduce the operating curve's performance, defining the system state (total water stored in the reservoirs) and the month of the year as inputs; and the demand deliveries as outputs. The developed simulation management model integrates the fuzzy-ruled system of the operation of the two main reservoirs of the basin with the corresponding mass balance equations, the physical or boundary conditions and the water allocation rules among the competing demands. Historical information on inflow time series is used as inputs to the model simulation, being trained and validated using historical information on reservoir storage level and flow in several streams of the Mijares river. This methodology provides a more flexible and close to real policies approach. The model is easy to develop and to understand due to its rule-based structure, which mimics the human way of thinking. This can improve cooperation and negotiation between managers, decision-makers and stakeholders. The approach can be also applied to analyze the historical operation of the reservoir (what we have called a reservoir operation "audit").
Data Assimilation of InSAR Surface Deformation Measurements for the Estimation of Reservoir Geomechanical Parameters in the Upper Adriatic Sedimentary Basin, Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bau, D. A.; Alzraiee, A.; Ferronato, M.; Gambolati, G.; Teatini, P.

2012-12-01

In the last decades, extensive work has been conducted to estimate land subsidence due the development of deep gas reservoirs situated in the Upper Adriatic sedimentary basin, Italy. These modeling efforts have stemmed from the development finite-element (FE) coupled reservoir-geomechanical models that can simulate the deformation due to the change in pore pressure induced by hydrocarbon production from the geological formations. However, the application of these numerical models has often been limited by the uncertainty in the hydrogeological and poro-mechanical input parameters that are necessary to simulate the impact on ground surface levels of past and/or future gas-field development scenarios. Resolving these uncertainties is of paramount importance, particularly the Northern Adriatic region, given the low elevation above the mean sea level observed along most of the coastline and in the areas surrounding the Venice Lagoon. In this work, we present a state-of-the-art data assimilation (DA) framework to incorporate measurements of displacement of the land surface obtained using Satellite Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) techniques into the response of geomechanical simulation models. In Northern Italy, InSAR measurement campaigns have been carried out over a depleted gas reservoir, referred to as "Lombardia", located at a depth of about 1200 m in the sedimentary basin of the Po River plain. In the last years, this reservoir has been used for underground gas storage and recovery (GSR). Because of the pore pressure periodical alternation produced by GSR, reservoir formations have undergone loading/unloading cycles, experiencing effective stress changes that have induced periodical variation of ground surface levels. Over the Lombardia reservoir, the pattern, magnitude and timing of time-laps land displacements both in the vertical and in the East-West directions have been acquired from 2003 until 2008. The availability of these data opens new pathways towards the improvement of current land subsidence modeling efforts. The DA framework presented here allows for merging, within an automated process, InSAR data into coupled reservoir-geomechanical model results. The framework relies upon Bayesian-based ensemble smoothing algorithms and has the potential to significantly reduce the uncertainty associated with compressibility vs. effective stress constitutive laws, as well as key geomechanical parameters characterizing the orthotropic behavior of the reservoir porous media and their spatial distribution. The DA framework is here applied using InSAR data collected over the "Lombardia" reservoir. The flexibility of smoothing algorithms is such that spatially distributed and possibly correlated measurement errors are accounted for in a relatively straightforward fashion, so that surface deformation data that are considered more reliable can be assigned a larger weight within the model calibration. A series of numerical simulation results are presented in order to assess the capabilities of the DA framework, its effectiveness, advantages and limitations.
Effects of Simulated Land-Use Changes on Water Quality of Lake Maumelle, Arkansas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hart, Rheannon M.; Westerman, Drew A.; Petersen, James C.; Green, W. Reed; De Lanois, Jeanne L.

2011-01-01

Lake Maumelle is one of two principal drinking-water supplies for the Little Rock and North Little Rock metropolitan areas. Lake Maumelle and the Maumelle River (its primary tributary) are more pristine than most other reservoirs and streams in the region. However, as the Lake Maumelle watershed becomes increasingly more urbanized and timber harvesting becomes more frequent, concerns about the sustainability of the quality of the water supply also have increased. Two models were developed to partially address these concerns. A Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN model was developed using input data collected from October 2004 through 2008. A CE-QUAL-W2 model was developed to simulate reservoir hydrodynamics and selected water quality using the simulated output from the Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN model from January 2005 through 2008. The Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN watershed model was calibrated to five streamflow-gaging stations, and in general, these stations characterize a range of subwatershed areas with varying land-use types. Continuous streamflow data, discrete sediment concentration data, and other discrete water-quality data were used to calibrate the Lake Maumelle Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN model. The CE-QUAL-W2 reservoir model was calibrated to water-quality data and reservoir pool altitude collected during January 2005 through December 2008 at three lake stations. In general, the overall simulation for the Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN and CE-UAL-W2 models matched reasonably well to the measured data. In general, simulated and measured suspended-sediment concentrations during periods of base flow (streamflows not substantially influenced by runoff) agree reasonably well for Williams Junction (with differences-simulated minus measured value-generally ranging from -14 to 19 mg/L, and percent difference-relative to the measured value-ranging from -87 to 642 percent) and Wye (differences generally ranging from -2 to 14 mg/L, -62 to 251 percent); however, the Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN model generally does not match the suspended-sediment concentrations for all stations during periods of stormflow (streamflow substantially influenced by runoff). Generally, this is also the case for fecal coliform bacteria numbers and total organic carbon and nutrient concentrations. In general, water temperature and dissolved-oxygen concentration simulations followed measured seasonal trends for all stations with the largest differences occurring during periods of lowest water temperatures (for temperature) or during the periods of lowest measured dissolved-oxygen concentrations (for dissolved oxygen). For the CE-QUAL-W2 model, simulated vertical distributions of temperatures and dissolved-oxygen concentrations agreed with measured distributions even for complex temperature profiles. Considering the oligotrophic-mesotrophic (low to intermediate primary productivity and associated low nutrient concentrations) condition of Lake Maumelle, simulated algae, phosphorus, and ammonia concentrations compared well with generally low measured values.
Stress heterogeneity above and within a deep geothermal reservoir: From borehole observations to geomechanical modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seithel, Robin; Peters, Max; Lesueur, Martin; Kohl, Thomas

2017-04-01

Overpressured reservoir conditions, local stress concentrations or a locally rotated stress field can initiate substantial problems during drilling or reservoir exploitation. Increasing geothermal utilization in the Molasse basin area in S-Germany is faced with such problems of deeply seated reservoir sections. In several wells, radial fluid flow systems are interpreted as highly porous layers. However, in nearby wells a combination of linear fluid flow, local stress heterogeneities and structural geology hint to a rather fault dominated reservoir (Seithel et al. 2015). Due to missing knowledge of the stress magnitude, stress orientation and their coupling to reservoir response, we will present a THMC model of critical formations and the geothermal reservoir targeting nearby faults. In an area south of Munich, where several geothermal wells are constructed, such wells are interpreted and integrated into a 30 x 30 km simulated model area. One of the main objectives here is to create a geomechanical reservoir model in a thermo-mechanical manner in order to understand the coupling between reservoir heterogeneities and stress distributions. To this end, stress analyses of wellbore data and laboratory tests will help to calibrate a reliable model. In order to implement the complex geological structure of the studied wedge-shaped foreland basin, an automatic export of lithology, fault and borehole data (e.g. from Petrel) into a FE mesh is used. We will present a reservoir-scale model that considers thermo-mechanic effects and analyze their influence on reservoir deformation, fluid flow and stress concentration. We use the currently developed finite element application REDBACK (https://github.com/pou036/redback), inside the MOOSE framework (Poulet et al. 2016). We show that mechanical heterogeneities nearby fault zones and their orientation within the stress field correlate to fracture pattern, interpreted stress heterogeneities or variegated flow systems within the reservoir. REFERENCES Poulet, T.; Paesold, M.; Veveakis, M. (2016), Multi-Physics Modelling of Fault Mechanics Using REDBACK. A Parallel Open-Source Simulator for Tightly Coupled Problems. Rock Mechanics and Rock Engineering. doi: 10.1007/s00603-016-0927-y. Seithel, R.; Steiner, U.; Müller, B.I.R.; Hecht, Ch.; Kohl, T. (2015), Local stress anomaly in the Bavarian Molasse Basin, Geothermal Energy 3(1), p.77. doi:10.1186/s40517-014-0023-z
The reservoir model: a differential equation model of psychological regulation.

PubMed

Deboeck, Pascal R; Bergeman, C S

2013-06-01

Differential equation models can be used to describe the relationships between the current state of a system of constructs (e.g., stress) and how those constructs are changing (e.g., based on variable-like experiences). The following article describes a differential equation model based on the concept of a reservoir. With a physical reservoir, such as one for water, the level of the liquid in the reservoir at any time depends on the contributions to the reservoir (inputs) and the amount of liquid removed from the reservoir (outputs). This reservoir model might be useful for constructs such as stress, where events might "add up" over time (e.g., life stressors, inputs), but individuals simultaneously take action to "blow off steam" (e.g., engage coping resources, outputs). The reservoir model can provide descriptive statistics of the inputs that contribute to the "height" (level) of a construct and a parameter that describes a person's ability to dissipate the construct. After discussing the model, we describe a method of fitting the model as a structural equation model using latent differential equation modeling and latent distribution modeling. A simulation study is presented to examine recovery of the input distribution and output parameter. The model is then applied to the daily self-reports of negative affect and stress from a sample of older adults from the Notre Dame Longitudinal Study on Aging. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved).
The Reservoir Model: A Differential Equation Model of Psychological Regulation

PubMed Central

Deboeck, Pascal R.; Bergeman, C. S.

2017-01-01

Differential equation models can be used to describe the relationships between the current state of a system of constructs (e.g., stress) and how those constructs are changing (e.g., based on variable-like experiences). The following article describes a differential equation model based on the concept of a reservoir. With a physical reservoir, such as one for water, the level of the liquid in the reservoir at any time depends on the contributions to the reservoir (inputs) and the amount of liquid removed from the reservoir (outputs). This reservoir model might be useful for constructs such as stress, where events might “add up” over time (e.g., life stressors, inputs), but individuals simultaneously take action to “blow off steam” (e.g., engage coping resources, outputs). The reservoir model can provide descriptive statistics of the inputs that contribute to the “height” (level) of a construct and a parameter that describes a person's ability to dissipate the construct. After discussing the model, we describe a method of fitting the model as a structural equation model using latent differential equation modeling and latent distribution modeling. A simulation study is presented to examine recovery of the input distribution and output parameter. The model is then applied to the daily self-reports of negative affect and stress from a sample of older adults from the Notre Dame Longitudinal Study on Aging. PMID:23527605
Numerical simulation and fracture identification of dual laterolog in organic shale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maojin, Tan; Peng, Wang; Qiong, Liu

2012-09-01

Fracture is one of important spaces in shale oil and shale gas reservoirs, and fractures identification and evaluation are an important part in organic shale interpretation. According to the fractured shale gas reservoir, a physical model is set up to study the dual laterolog logging responses. First, based on the principle of dual laterolog, three-dimensional finite element method (FEM) is used to simulate the dual laterolog responses in various formation models with different fractures widths, different fracture numbers, different fractures inclination angle. All the results are extremely important for the fracture identification and evaluation in shale reservoirs. Appointing to different base rock resistivity models, the fracture models are constructed respectively through a number of numerical simulation, and the fracture porosity can be calculated by solving the corresponding formulas. A case study about organic shale formation is analyst and discussed, and the fracture porosity is calculated from dual laterolog. The fracture evaluation results are also be validated right by Full borehole Micro-resistivity Imaging (FMI). So, in case of the absence of borehole resistivity imaging log, the dual laterolog resistivity can be used to estimate the fracture development.
Creep model of unsaturated sliding zone soils and long-term deformation analysis of landslides

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zou, Liangchao; Wang, Shimei; Zhang, Yeming

2015-04-01

Sliding zone soil is a special soil layer formed in the development of a landslide. Its creep behavior plays a significant role in long-term deformation of landslides. Due to rainfall infiltration and reservoir water level fluctuation, the soils in the slide zone are often in unsaturated state. Therefore, the investigation of creep behaviors of the unsaturated sliding zone soils is of great importance for understanding the mechanism of the long-term deformation of a landslide in reservoir areas. In this study, the full-process creep curves of the unsaturated soils in the sliding zone in different net confining pressure, matric suctions and stress levels were obtained from a large number of laboratory triaxial creep tests. A nonlinear creep model for unsaturated soils and its three-dimensional form was then deduced based on the component model theory and unsaturated soil mechanics. This creep model was validated with laboratory creep data. The results show that this creep model can effectively and accurately describe the nonlinear creep behaviors of the unsaturated sliding zone soils. In order to apply this creep model to predict the long-term deformation process of landslides, a numerical model for simulating the coupled seepage and creep deformation of unsaturated sliding zone soils was developed based on this creep model through the finite element method (FEM). By using this numerical model, we simulated the deformation process of the Shuping landslide located in the Three Gorges reservoir area, under the cycling reservoir water level fluctuation during one year. The simulation results of creep displacement were then compared with the field deformation monitoring data, showing a good agreement in trend. The results show that the creeping deformations of landslides have strong connections with the changes of reservoir water level. The creep model of unsaturated sliding zone soils and the findings obtained by numerical simulations in this study are conducive to reveal the mechanisms of the dynamic process of landslide deformation, and serve as an important basis for the prediction and evaluation of landslides.
Incorporating teleconnection information into reservoir operating policies using Stochastic Dynamic Programming and a Hidden Markov Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turner, Sean; Galelli, Stefano; Wilcox, Karen

2015-04-01

Water reservoir systems are often affected by recurring large-scale ocean-atmospheric anomalies, known as teleconnections, that cause prolonged periods of climatological drought. Accurate forecasts of these events -- at lead times in the order of weeks and months -- may enable reservoir operators to take more effective release decisions to improve the performance of their systems. In practice this might mean a more reliable water supply system, a more profitable hydropower plant or a more sustainable environmental release policy. To this end, climate indices, which represent the oscillation of the ocean-atmospheric system, might be gainfully employed within reservoir operating models that adapt the reservoir operation as a function of the climate condition. This study develops a Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SDP) approach that can incorporate climate indices using a Hidden Markov Model. The model simulates the climatic regime as a hidden state following a Markov chain, with the state transitions driven by variation in climatic indices, such as the Southern Oscillation Index. Time series analysis of recorded streamflow data reveals the parameters of separate autoregressive models that describe the inflow to the reservoir under three representative climate states ("normal", "wet", "dry"). These models then define inflow transition probabilities for use in a classic SDP approach. The key advantage of the Hidden Markov Model is that it allows conditioning the operating policy not only on the reservoir storage and the antecedent inflow, but also on the climate condition, thus potentially allowing adaptability to a broader range of climate conditions. In practice, the reservoir operator would effect a water release tailored to a specific climate state based on available teleconnection data and forecasts. The approach is demonstrated on the operation of a realistic, stylised water reservoir with carry-over capacity in South-East Australia. Here teleconnections relating to both the El Niño Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole influence local hydro-meteorological processes; statistically significant lag correlations have already been established. Simulation of the derived operating policies, which are benchmarked against standard policies conditioned on the reservoir storage and the antecedent inflow, demonstrates the potential of the proposed approach. Future research will further develop the model for sensitivity analysis and regional studies examining the economic value of incorporating long range forecasts into reservoir operation.

Pre- and postprocessing for reservoir simulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rogers, W.L.; Ingalls, L.J.; Prasad, S.J.

1991-05-01

This paper describes the functionality and underlying programing paradigms of Shell's simulator-related reservoir-engineering graphics system. THis system includes the simulation postprocessing programs Reservoir Display System (RDS) and Fast Reservoir Engineering Displays (FRED), a hypertext-like on-line documentation system (DOC), and a simulator input preprocessor (SIMPLSIM). RDS creates displays of reservoir simulation results. These displays represent the areal or cross-section distribution of computer reservoir parameters, such as pressure, phase saturation, or temperature. Generation of these images at real-time animation rates is discussed. FRED facilitates the creation of plot files from reservoir simulation output. The use of dynamic memory allocation, asynchronous I/O, amore » table-driven screen manager, and mixed-language (FORTRAN and C) programming are detailed. DOC is used to create and access on-line documentation for the pre-and post-processing programs and the reservoir simulators. DOC can be run by itself or can be accessed from within any other graphics or nongraphics application program. DOC includes a text editor, which is that basis for a reservoir simulation tutorial and greatly simplifies the preparation of simulator input. The use of sharable images, graphics, and the documentation file network are described. Finally, SIMPLSIM is a suite of program that uses interactive graphics in the preparation of reservoir description data for input into reservoir simulators. The SIMPLSIM user-interface manager (UIM) and its graphic interface for reservoir description are discussed.« less
In the Way of Peacemaker Guide Curve between Water Supply and Flood Control for Short Term Reservoir Operation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uysal, G.; Sensoy, A.; Yavuz, O.; Sorman, A. A.; Gezgin, T.

2012-04-01

Effective management of a controlled reservoir system where it involves multiple and sometimes conflicting objectives is a complex problem especially in real time operations. Yuvacık Dam Reservoir, located in the Marmara region of Turkey, is built to supply annual demand of 142 hm3 water for Kocaeli city requires such a complex management strategy since it has relatively small (51 hm3) effective capacity. On the other hand, the drainage basin is fed by both rainfall and snowmelt since the elevation ranges between 80 - 1548 m. Excessive water must be stored behind the radial gates between February and May in terms of sustainability especially for summer and autumn periods. Moreover, the downstream channel physical conditions constraint the spillway releases up to 100 m3/s although the spillway is large enough to handle major floods. Thus, this situation makes short term release decisions the challenging task. Long term water supply curves, based on historical inflows and annual water demand, are in conflict with flood regulation (control) levels, based on flood attenuation and routing curves, for this reservoir. A guide curve, that is generated using both water supply and flood control of downstream channel, generally corresponds to upper elevation of conservation pool for simulation of a reservoir. However, sometimes current operation necessitates exceeding this target elevation. Since guide curves can be developed as a function of external variables, the water potential of a basin can be an indicator to explain current conditions and decide on the further strategies. Besides, releases with respect to guide curve are managed and restricted by user-defined rules. Although the managers operate the reservoir due to several variable conditions and predictions, still the simulation model using variable guide curve is an urgent need to test alternatives quickly. To that end, using HEC-ResSim, the several variable guide curves are defined to meet the requirements by taking inflow, elevation, precipitation and snow water equivalent into consideration to propose alternative simulations as a decision support system. After that, the releases are subjected to user-defined rules. Thus, previous year reservoir simulations are compared with observed reservoir levels and releases. Hypothetical flood scenarios are tested in case of different storm event timing and sizing. Numerical weather prediction data of Mesoscale Model 5 (MM5) can be used for temperature and precipitation forecasts that will form the inputs for a hydrological model. The estimated flows can be used for real time short term decisions for reservoir simulation based on variable guide curve and user defined rules.
Enhanced genetic algorithm optimization model for a single reservoir operation based on hydropower generation: case study of Mosul reservoir, northern Iraq.

PubMed

Al-Aqeeli, Yousif H; Lee, T S; Abd Aziz, S

2016-01-01

Achievement of the optimal hydropower generation from operation of water reservoirs, is a complex problems. The purpose of this study was to formulate and improve an approach of a genetic algorithm optimization model (GAOM) in order to increase the maximization of annual hydropower generation for a single reservoir. For this purpose, two simulation algorithms were drafted and applied independently in that GAOM during 20 scenarios (years) for operation of Mosul reservoir, northern Iraq. The first algorithm was based on the traditional simulation of reservoir operation, whilst the second algorithm (Salg) enhanced the GAOM by changing the population values of GA through a new simulation process of reservoir operation. The performances of these two algorithms were evaluated through the comparison of their optimal values of annual hydropower generation during the 20 scenarios of operating. The GAOM achieved an increase in hydropower generation in 17 scenarios using these two algorithms, with the Salg being superior in all scenarios. All of these were done prior adding the evaporation (Ev) and precipitation (Pr) to the water balance equation. Next, the GAOM using the Salg was applied by taking into consideration the volumes of these two parameters. In this case, the optimal values obtained from the GAOM were compared, firstly with their counterpart that found using the same algorithm without taking into consideration of Ev and Pr, secondly with the observed values. The first comparison showed that the optimal values obtained in this case decreased in all scenarios, whilst maintaining the good results compared with the observed in the second comparison. The results proved the effectiveness of the Salg in increasing the hydropower generation through the enhanced approach of the GAOM. In addition, the results indicated to the importance of taking into account the Ev and Pr in the modelling of reservoirs operation.
Numerical modeling of fracking fluid and methane migration through fault zones in shale gas reservoirs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taherdangkoo, Reza; Tatomir, Alexandru; Sauter, Martin

2017-04-01

Hydraulic fracturing operation in shale gas reservoir has gained growing interest over the last few years. Groundwater contamination is one of the most important environmental concerns that have emerged surrounding shale gas development (Reagan et al., 2015). The potential impacts of hydraulic fracturing could be studied through the possible pathways for subsurface migration of contaminants towards overlying aquifers (Kissinger et al., 2013; Myers, 2012). The intent of this study is to investigate, by means of numerical simulation, two failure scenarios which are based on the presence of a fault zone that penetrates the full thickness of overburden and connect shale gas reservoir to aquifer. Scenario 1 addresses the potential transport of fracturing fluid from the shale into the subsurface. This scenario was modeled with COMSOL Multiphysics software. Scenario 2 deals with the leakage of methane from the reservoir into the overburden. The numerical modeling of this scenario was implemented in DuMux (free and open-source software), discrete fracture model (DFM) simulator (Tatomir, 2012). The modeling results are used to evaluate the influence of several important parameters (reservoir pressure, aquifer-reservoir separation thickness, fault zone inclination, porosity, permeability, etc.) that could affect the fluid transport through the fault zone. Furthermore, we determined the main transport mechanisms and circumstances in which would allow frack fluid or methane migrate through the fault zone into geological layers. The results show that presence of a conductive fault could reduce the contaminant travel time and a significant contaminant leakage, under certain hydraulic conditions, is most likely to occur. Bibliography Kissinger, A., Helmig, R., Ebigbo, A., Class, H., Lange, T., Sauter, M., Heitfeld, M., Klünker, J., Jahnke, W., 2013. Hydraulic fracturing in unconventional gas reservoirs: risks in the geological system, part 2. Environ Earth Sci 70, 3855-3873. Myers, T., 2012. Potential contaminant pathways from hydraulically fractured shale to aquifers. Groundwater, 50(6), 872-882. Reagan, M.T., Moridis, G.J., Keen, N.D., Johnson, J.N., 2015. Numerical simulation of the environmental impact of hydraulic fracturing of tight/shale gas reservoirs on near-surface groundwater: Background, base cases, shallow reservoirs, short-term gas, and water transport. Water Resources Research 51, 2543-2573. Tatomir, A., 2012. From Discrete to Continuum Concepts of Flow in Fractured Porous Media. Stuttgart University: University of Stuttgart.
Simulation of reservoir storage and firm yields of three surface-water supplies, Ipswich River Basin, Massachusetts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zarriello, Phillip J.

2002-01-01

A Hydrologic Simulation Program FORTRAN (HSPF) model previously developed for the Ipswich River Basin was modified to simulate the hydrologic response and firm yields of the water-supply systems of Lynn, Peabody, and Salem-Beverly. The updated model, expanded to include a portion of the Saugus River Basin that supplies water to Lynn, simulated reservoir system storage over a 35-year period (1961-95) under permitted withdrawals and hypothetical restrictions designed to maintain seasonally varied streamflow for aquatic habitat. A firm yield was calculated for each system and each withdrawal restriction by altering demands until the system failed. This is considered the maximum withdrawal rate that satisfies demands, but depletes reservoir storage. Simulations indicate that, under the permitted withdrawals, Lynn and Salem-Beverly were able to meet demands and generally have their reservoir system recover to full capacity during most years; reservoir storage averaged 83 and 82 percent of capacity, respectively. The firm yields for the Lynn and Salem-Beverly systems were 11.4 and 12.2 million gallons per day (Mgal/d), respectively, or 8 and 21 percent more than average 1998-2000 demands, respectively. Under permitted withdrawals and average 1998-2000 demands, the Peabody system failed in all years; thus Peabody purchased water to meet demands. The firm yield for the Peabody system is 3.70 Mgal/d, or 37 percent less than the average 1998-2000 demand. Simulations that limit withdrawals to levels recommended by the Ipswich River Fisheries Restoration Task Group (IRFRTG) indicate that under average 1998-2000 demands, reservoir storage was depleted in each of the three systems. Reservoir storage under average 1998-2000 demands and IRFRTG-recommended streamflow requirements averaged 15, 22, and 71 percent of capacity for the Lynn, Peabody, Salem-Beverly systems, respectively. The firm-yield estimates under the IRFRTG-recommended streamflow requirements were 6.02, 1.94, and 7.69 Mgal/d or 43, 64, and 34 percent less than the average 1998-2000 demands for the Lynn, Peabody, and Salem-Beverly systems, respectively. Simulations that limit withdrawals from the Saugus River to a less stringent set of restrictions (based on an Instream Flow Incremental Methodology study) than those previously simulated indicate that the firm yield of the Lynn system is about 31 percent less than the average 1998-2000 withdrawals (7.31 Mgal/d).
Multiple point statistical simulation using uncertain (soft) conditional data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hansen, Thomas Mejer; Vu, Le Thanh; Mosegaard, Klaus; Cordua, Knud Skou

2018-05-01

Geostatistical simulation methods have been used to quantify spatial variability of reservoir models since the 80s. In the last two decades, state of the art simulation methods have changed from being based on covariance-based 2-point statistics to multiple-point statistics (MPS), that allow simulation of more realistic Earth-structures. In addition, increasing amounts of geo-information (geophysical, geological, etc.) from multiple sources are being collected. This pose the problem of integration of these different sources of information, such that decisions related to reservoir models can be taken on an as informed base as possible. In principle, though difficult in practice, this can be achieved using computationally expensive Monte Carlo methods. Here we investigate the use of sequential simulation based MPS simulation methods conditional to uncertain (soft) data, as a computational efficient alternative. First, it is demonstrated that current implementations of sequential simulation based on MPS (e.g. SNESIM, ENESIM and Direct Sampling) do not account properly for uncertain conditional information, due to a combination of using only co-located information, and a random simulation path. Then, we suggest two approaches that better account for the available uncertain information. The first make use of a preferential simulation path, where more informed model parameters are visited preferentially to less informed ones. The second approach involves using non co-located uncertain information. For different types of available data, these approaches are demonstrated to produce simulation results similar to those obtained by the general Monte Carlo based approach. These methods allow MPS simulation to condition properly to uncertain (soft) data, and hence provides a computationally attractive approach for integration of information about a reservoir model.
Massachusetts reservoir simulation tool—User’s manual

USGS Publications Warehouse

Levin, Sara B.

2016-10-06

IntroductionThe U.S. Geological Survey developed the Massachusetts Reservoir Simulation Tool to examine the effects of reservoirs on natural streamflows in Massachusetts by simulating the daily water balance of reservoirs. The simulation tool was developed to assist environmental managers to better manage water withdrawals in reservoirs and to preserve downstream aquatic habitats.
3D Modeling and Characterization of Hydraulic Fracture Efficiency Integrated with 4D/9C Time-Lapse Seismic Interpretations in the Niobrara Formation, Wattenberg Field, Denver Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alfataierge, Ahmed

Hydrocarbon recovery rates within the Niobrara Shale are estimated as low as 2-8%. These recovery rates are controlled by the ability to effectively hydraulic fracture stimulate the reservoir using multistage horizontal wells. Subsequent to any mechanical issues that affect production from lateral wells, the variability in production performance and reserve recovery along multistage lateral shale wells is controlled by the reservoir heterogeneity and its consequent effect on hydraulic fracture stimulation efficiency. Using identical stimulation designs on a number of wells that are as close as 600ft apart can yield variable production and recovery rates due to inefficiencies in hydraulic fracture stimulation that result from the variability in elastic rock properties and in-situ stress conditions. As a means for examining the effect of the geological heterogeneity on hydraulic fracturing and production within the Niobrara Formation, a 3D geomechanical model is derived using geostatistical methods and volumetric calculations as an input to hydraulic fracture stimulation. The 3D geomechanical model incorporates the faults, lithological facies changes and lateral variation in reservoir properties and elastic rock properties that best represent the static reservoir conditions pre-hydraulic fracturing. Using a 3D numerical reservoir simulator, a hydraulic fracture predictive model is generated and calibrated to field diagnostic measurements (DFIT) and observations (microseismic and 4D/9C multicomponent time-lapse seismic). By incorporating the geological heterogeneity into the 3D hydraulic fracture simulation, a more representative response is generated that demonstrate the variability in hydraulic fracturing efficiency along the lateral wells that will inevitability influence production performance. Based on the 3D hydraulic fracture simulation results, integrated with microseismic observations and 4D/9C time-lapse seismic analysis (post-hydraulic fracturing & post production), the variability in production performance within the Niobrara Shale wells is shown to significantly be affected by the lateral variability in reservoir quality, well and stage positioning relative to the target interval, and the relative completion efficiency. The variation in reservoir properties, faults, rock strength parameters, and in-situ stress conditions are shown to influence and control the hydraulic fracturing geometry and stimulation efficiency resulting in complex and isolated induced fracture geometries to form within the reservoir. This consequently impacts the effective drainage areas, production performance and recovery rates from inefficiently stimulated horizontal wells. The 3D simulation results coupled with the 4D seismic interpretations illustrate that there is still room for improvement to be made in optimizing well spacing and hydraulic fracturing efficiency within the Niobrara Formation. Integrated analysis show that the Niobrara reservoir is not uniformly stimulated. The vertical and lateral variability in rock properties control the hydraulic fracturing efficiency and geometry. Better production is also correlated to higher fracture conductivity. 4D seismic interpretation is also shown to be essential for the validation and calibration hydraulic fracture simulation models. The hydraulic fracture modeling also demonstrations that there is bypassed pay in the Niobrara B chalk resulting from initial Niobrara C chalk stimulation treatments. Forward modeling also shows that low pressure intervals within the Niobrara reservoir influence hydraulic fracturing and infill drilling during field development.
Assessment of CO2 Storage Potential in Naturally Fractured Reservoirs With Dual-Porosity Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

March, Rafael; Doster, Florian; Geiger, Sebastian

2018-03-01

Naturally Fractured Reservoirs (NFR's) have received little attention as potential CO2 storage sites. Two main facts deter from storage projects in fractured reservoirs: (1) CO2 tends to be nonwetting in target formations and capillary forces will keep CO2 in the fractures, which typically have low pore volume; and (2) the high conductivity of the fractures may lead to increased spatial spreading of the CO2 plume. Numerical simulations are a powerful tool to understand the physics behind brine-CO2 flow in NFR's. Dual-porosity models are typically used to simulate multiphase flow in fractured formations. However, existing dual-porosity models are based on crude approximations of the matrix-fracture fluid transfer processes and often fail to capture the dynamics of fluid exchange accurately. Therefore, more accurate transfer functions are needed in order to evaluate the CO2 transfer to the matrix. This work presents an assessment of CO2 storage potential in NFR's using dual-porosity models. We investigate the impact of a system of fractures on storage in a saline aquifer, by analyzing the time scales of brine drainage by CO2 in the matrix blocks and the maximum CO2 that can be stored in the rock matrix. A new model to estimate drainage time scales is developed and used in a transfer function for dual-porosity simulations. We then analyze how injection rates should be limited in order to avoid early spill of CO2 (lost control of the plume) on a conceptual anticline model. Numerical simulations on the anticline show that naturally fractured reservoirs may be used to store CO2.
Cascade reservoir flood control operation based on risk grading and warning in the Upper Yellow River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xuejiao, M.; Chang, J.; Wang, Y.

2017-12-01

Flood risk reduction with non-engineering measures has become the main idea for flood management. It is more effective for flood risk management to take various non-engineering measures. In this paper, a flood control operation model for cascade reservoirs in the Upper Yellow River was proposed to lower the flood risk of the water system with multi-reservoir by combining the reservoir flood control operation (RFCO) and flood early warning together. Specifically, a discharge control chart was employed to build the joint RFCO simulation model for cascade reservoirs in the Upper Yellow River. And entropy-weighted fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method was adopted to establish a multi-factorial risk assessment model for flood warning grade. Furthermore, after determining the implementing mode of countermeasures with future inflow, an intelligent optimization algorithm was used to solve the optimization model for applicable water release scheme. In addition, another model without any countermeasure was set to be a comparative experiment. The results show that the model developed in this paper can further decrease the flood risk of water system with cascade reservoirs. It provides a new approach to flood risk management by coupling flood control operation and flood early warning of cascade reservoirs.
Simulation of extreme reservoir level distribution with the SCHADEX method (EXTRAFLO project)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paquet, Emmanuel; Penot, David; Garavaglia, Federico

2013-04-01

The standard practice for the design of dam spillways structures and gates is to consider the maximum reservoir level reached for a given hydrologic scenario. This scenario has several components: peak discharge, flood volumes on different durations, discharge gradients etc. Within a probabilistic analysis framework, several scenarios can be associated with different return times, although a reference return level (e.g. 1000 years) is often prescribed by the local regulation rules or usual practice. Using continuous simulation method for extreme flood estimation is a convenient solution to provide a great variety of hydrological scenarios to feed a hydraulic model of dam operation: flood hydrographs are explicitly simulated by a rainfall-runoff model fed by a stochastic rainfall generator. The maximum reservoir level reached will be conditioned by the scale and the dynamics of the generated hydrograph, by the filling of the reservoir prior to the flood, and by the dam gates and spillway operation during the event. The simulation of a great number of floods will allow building a probabilistic distribution of maximum reservoir levels. A design value can be chosen at a definite return level. An alternative approach is proposed here, based on the SCHADEX method for extreme flood estimation, proposed by Paquet et al. (2006, 2013). SCHADEX is a so-called "semi-continuous" stochastic simulation method in that flood events are simulated on an event basis and are superimposed on a continuous simulation of the catchment saturation hazard using rainfall-runoff modelling. The SCHADEX process works at the study time-step (e.g. daily), and the peak flow distribution is deduced from the simulated daily flow distribution by a peak-to-volume ratio. A reference hydrograph relevant for extreme floods is proposed. In the standard version of the method, both the peak-to-volume and the reference hydrograph are constant. An enhancement of this method is presented, with variable peak-to-volume ratios and hydrographs applied to each simulated event. This allows accounting for different flood dynamics, depending on the season, the generating precipitation event, the soil saturation state, etc. In both cases, a hydraulic simulation of dam operation is performed, in order to compute the distribution of maximum reservoir levels. Results are detailed for an extreme return level, showing that a 1000 years return level reservoir level can be reached during flood events whose components (peaks, volumes) are not necessarily associated with such return level. The presentation will be illustrated by the example of a fictive dam on the Tech River at Reynes (South of France, 477 km²). This study has been carried out within the EXTRAFLO project, Task 8 (https://extraflo.cemagref.fr/). References: Paquet, E., Gailhard, J. and Garçon, R. (2006), Evolution of the GRADEX method: improvement by atmospheric circulation classification and hydrological modeling, La Houille Blanche, 5, 80-90. doi:10.1051/lhb:2006091. Paquet, E., Garavaglia, F., Garçon, R. and Gailhard, J. (2012), The SCHADEX method: a semi-continuous rainfall-runoff simulation for extreme food estimation, Journal of Hydrology, under revision
Reservoir simulation with the cubic plus (cross-) association equation of state for water, CO2, hydrocarbons, and tracers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moortgat, Joachim

2018-04-01

This work presents an efficient reservoir simulation framework for multicomponent, multiphase, compressible flow, based on the cubic-plus-association (CPA) equation of state (EOS). CPA is an accurate EOS for mixtures that contain non-polar hydrocarbons, self-associating polar water, and cross-associating molecules like methane, ethane, unsaturated hydrocarbons, CO2, and H2S. While CPA is accurate, its mathematical formulation is highly non-linear, resulting in excessive computational costs that have made the EOS unfeasible for large scale reservoir simulations. This work presents algorithms that overcome these bottlenecks and achieve an efficiency comparable to the much simpler cubic EOS approach. The main applications that require such accurate phase behavior modeling are 1) the study of methane leakage from high-pressure production wells and its potential impact on groundwater resources, 2) modeling of geological CO2 sequestration in brine aquifers when one is interested in more than the CO2 and H2O components, e.g. methane, other light hydrocarbons, and various tracers, and 3) enhanced oil recovery by CO2 injection in reservoirs that have previously been waterflooded or contain connate water. We present numerical examples of all those scenarios, extensive validation of the CPA EOS with experimental data, and analyses of the efficiency of our proposed numerical schemes. The accuracy, efficiency, and robustness of the presented phase split computations pave the way to more widespread adoption of CPA in reservoir simulators.
Deduction of reservoir operating rules for application in global hydrological models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coerver, Hubertus M.; Rutten, Martine M.; van de Giesen, Nick C.

2018-01-01

A big challenge in constructing global hydrological models is the inclusion of anthropogenic impacts on the water cycle, such as caused by dams. Dam operators make decisions based on experience and often uncertain information. In this study information generally available to dam operators, like inflow into the reservoir and storage levels, was used to derive fuzzy rules describing the way a reservoir is operated. Using an artificial neural network capable of mimicking fuzzy logic, called the ANFIS adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system, fuzzy rules linking inflow and storage with reservoir release were determined for 11 reservoirs in central Asia, the US and Vietnam. By varying the input variables of the neural network, different configurations of fuzzy rules were created and tested. It was found that the release from relatively large reservoirs was significantly dependent on information concerning recent storage levels, while release from smaller reservoirs was more dependent on reservoir inflows. Subsequently, the derived rules were used to simulate reservoir release with an average Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of 0.81.
LakeVOC; A Deterministic Model to Estimate Volatile Organic Compound Concentrations in Reservoirs and Lakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bender, David A.; Asher, William E.; Zogorski, John S.

2003-01-01

This report documents LakeVOC, a model to estimate volatile organic compound (VOC) concentrations in lakes and reservoirs. LakeVOC represents the lake or reservoir as a two-layer system and estimates VOC concentrations in both the epilimnion and hypolimnion. The air-water flux of a VOC is characterized in LakeVOC in terms of the two-film model of air-water exchange. LakeVOC solves the system of coupled differential equations for the VOC concentration in the epilimnion, the VOC concentration in the hypolimnion, the total mass of the VOC in the lake, the volume of the epilimnion, and the volume of the hypolimnion. A series of nine simulations were conducted to verify LakeVOC representation of mixing, dilution, and gas exchange characteristics in a hypothetical lake, and two additional estimates of lake volume and MTBE concentrations were done in an actual reservoir under environmental conditions. These 11 simulations showed that LakeVOC correctly handled mixing, dilution, and gas exchange. The model also adequately estimated VOC concentrations within the epilimnion in an actual reservoir with daily input parameters. As the parameter-input time scale increased (from daily to weekly to monthly, for example), the differences between the measured-averaged concentrations and the model-estimated concentrations generally increased, especially for the hypolimnion. This may be because as the time scale is increased from daily to weekly to monthly, the averaging of model inputs may cause a loss of detail in the model estimates.
ENHANCING HYDROLOGICAL SIMULATION PROGRAM - FORTRAN MODEL CHANNEL HYDRAULIC REPRESENTATION

EPA Science Inventory

The Hydrological Simulation Program– FORTRAN (HSPF) is a comprehensive watershed model that employs depth-area - volume - flow relationships known as the hydraulic function table (FTABLE) to represent the hydraulic characteristics of stream channel cross-sections and reservoirs. ...
Integration of 3D photogrammetric outcrop models in the reservoir modelling workflow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deschamps, Remy; Joseph, Philippe; Lerat, Olivier; Schmitz, Julien; Doligez, Brigitte; Jardin, Anne

2014-05-01

3D technologies are now widely used in geosciences to reconstruct outcrops in 3D. The technology used for the 3D reconstruction is usually based on Lidar, which provides very precise models. Such datasets offer the possibility to build well-constrained outcrop analogue models for reservoir study purposes. The photogrammetry is an alternate methodology which principles are based in determining the geometric properties of an object from photographic pictures taken from different angles. Outcrop data acquisition is easy, and this methodology allows constructing 3D outcrop models with many advantages such as: - light and fast acquisition, - moderate processing time (depending on the size of the area of interest), - integration of field data and 3D outcrops into the reservoir modelling tools. Whatever the method, the advantages of digital outcrop model are numerous as already highlighted by Hodgetts (2013), McCaffrey et al. (2005) and Pringle et al. (2006): collection of data from otherwise inaccessible areas, access to different angles of view, increase of the possible measurements, attributes analysis, fast rate of data collection, and of course training and communication. This paper proposes a workflow where 3D geocellular models are built by integrating all sources of information from outcrops (surface picking, sedimentological sections, structural and sedimentary dips…). The 3D geomodels that are reconstructed can be used at the reservoir scale, in order to compare the outcrop information with subsurface models: the detailed facies models of the outcrops are transferred into petrophysical and acoustic models, which are used to test different scenarios of seismic and fluid flow modelling. The detailed 3D models are also used to test new techniques of static reservoir modelling, based either on geostatistical approaches or on deterministic (process-based) simulation techniques. A modelling workflow has been designed to model reservoir geometries and properties from 3D outcrop data, including geostatistical modelling and fluid flow simulations The case study is a turbidite reservoir analog in Northern Spain (Ainsa). In this case study, we can compare reservoir models that have been built with conventional data set (1D pseudowells), and reservoir model built from 3D outcrop data directly used to constrain the reservoir architecture. This approach allows us to assess the benefits of integrating geotagged 3D outcrop data into reservoir models. References: HODGETTS, D., (2013): Laser scanning and digital outcrop geology in the petroleum industry : a review. Marine and Petroleum Geology, 46, 335-354. McCAFFREY, K.J.W., JONES, R.R., HOLDSWORTH, R.E., WILSON, R.W., CLEGG, P., IMBER, J., HOLLIMAN, N., TRINKS, I., (2005): Unlocking the spatial dimension: digital technologies and the future of geoscience fieldwork. Journal of the Geological Society 162, 927-938 PRINGLE, J.K., HOWELL, J.A., HODGETTS, D., WESTERMAN, A.R., HODGSON, D.M., 2006. Virtual outcrop models of petroleum reservoir analogues: a review of the current state-of-the-art. First Break 24, 33-42.
Evaluation of gas production potential from gas hydrate deposits in National Petroleum Reserve Alaska using numerical simulations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nandanwar, Manish S.; Anderson, Brian J.; Ajayi, Taiwo; Collett, Timothy S.; Zyrianova, Margarita V.

2016-01-01

An evaluation of the gas production potential of Sunlight Peak gas hydrate accumulation in the eastern portion of the National Petroleum Reserve Alaska (NPRA) of Alaska North Slope (ANS) is conducted using numerical simulations, as part of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) gas hydrate Life Cycle Assessment program. A field scale reservoir model for Sunlight Peak is developed using Advanced Processes & Thermal Reservoir Simulator (STARS) that approximates the production design and response of this gas hydrate field. The reservoir characterization is based on available structural maps and the seismic-derived hydrate saturation map of the study region. A 3D reservoir model, with heterogeneous distribution of the reservoir properties (such as porosity, permeability and vertical hydrate saturation), is developed by correlating the data from the Mount Elbert well logs. Production simulations showed that the Sunlight Peak prospect has the potential of producing 1.53 × 109 ST m3 of gas in 30 years by depressurization with a peak production rate of around 19.4 × 104 ST m3/day through a single horizontal well. To determine the effect of uncertainty in reservoir properties on the gas production, an uncertainty analysis is carried out. It is observed that for the range of data considered, the overall cumulative production from the Sunlight Peak will always be within the range of ±4.6% error from the overall mean value of 1.43 × 109 ST m3. A sensitivity analysis study showed that the proximity of the reservoir from the base of permafrost and the base of hydrate stability zone (BHSZ) has significant effect on gas production rates. The gas production rates decrease with the increase in the depth of the permafrost and the depth of BHSZ. From the overall analysis of the results it is concluded that Sunlight Peak gas hydrate accumulation behaves differently than other Class III reservoirs (Class III reservoirs are composed of a single layer of hydrate with no underlying zone of mobile fluids) due to its smaller thickness and high angle of dip.
Material point method modeling in oil and gas reservoirs

DOEpatents

Vanderheyden, William Brian; Zhang, Duan

2016-06-28

A computer system and method of simulating the behavior of an oil and gas reservoir including changes in the margins of frangible solids. A system of equations including state equations such as momentum, and conservation laws such as mass conservation and volume fraction continuity, are defined and discretized for at least two phases in a modeled volume, one of which corresponds to frangible material. A material point model technique for numerically solving the system of discretized equations, to derive fluid flow at each of a plurality of mesh nodes in the modeled volume, and the velocity of at each of a plurality of particles representing the frangible material in the modeled volume. A time-splitting technique improves the computational efficiency of the simulation while maintaining accuracy on the deformation scale. The method can be applied to derive accurate upscaled model equations for larger volume scale simulations.
Will building new reservoirs always help increase the water supply reliability? - insight from a modeling-based global study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhuang, Y.; Tian, F.; Yigzaw, W.; Hejazi, M. I.; Li, H. Y.; Turner, S. W. D.; Vernon, C. R.

2017-12-01

More and more reservoirs are being build or planned in order to help meet the increasing water demand all over the world. However, is building new reservoirs always helpful to water supply? To address this question, the river routing module of Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) has been extended with a simple yet physical-based reservoir scheme accounting for irrigation, flood control and hydropower operations at each individual reservoir. The new GCAM river routing model has been applied over the global domain with the runoff inputs from the Variable Infiltration Capacity Model. The simulated streamflow is validated at 150 global river basins where the observed streamflow data are available. The model performance has been significantly improved at 77 basins and worsened at 35 basins. To facilitate the analysis of additional reservoir storage impacts at the basin level, a lumped version of GCAM reservoir model has been developed, representing a single lumped reservoir at each river basin which has the regulation capacity of all reservoir combined. A Sequent Peak Analysis is used to estimate how much additional reservoir storage is required to satisfy the current water demand. For basins with water deficit, the water supply reliability can be improved with additional storage. However, there is a threshold storage value at each basin beyond which the reliability stops increasing, suggesting that building new reservoirs will not help better relieve the water stress. Findings in the research can be helpful to the future planning and management of new reservoirs.
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Hong -Yi; Leung, L. Ruby; Tesfa, Teklu

A new large-scale stream temperature model has been developed within the Community Earth System Model (CESM) framework. The model is coupled with the Model for Scale Adaptive River Transport (MOSART) that represents river routing and a water management model (WM) that represents the effects of reservoir operations and water withdrawals on flow regulation. The coupled models allow the impacts of reservoir operations and withdrawals on stream temperature to be explicitly represented in a physically based and consistent way. The models have been applied to the Contiguous United States driven by observed meteorological forcing. It is shown that the model ismore » capable of reproducing stream temperature spatiotemporal variation satisfactorily by comparison against the observed streamflow from over 320 USGS stations. Including water management in the models improves the agreement between the simulated and observed streamflow at a large number of stream gauge stations. Both climate and water management are found to have important influence on the spatiotemporal patterns of stream temperature. More interestingly, it is quantitatively estimated that reservoir operation could cool down stream temperature in the summer low-flow season (August – October) by as much as 1~2oC over many places, as water management generally mitigates low flow, which has important implications to aquatic ecosystems. In conclusion, sensitivity of the simulated stream temperature to input data and reservoir operation rules used in the WM model motivates future directions to address some limitations in the current modeling framework.« less

3D Reservoir Modeling of Semutang Gas Field: A lonely Gas field in Chittagong-Tripura Fold Belt, with Integrated Well Log, 2D Seismic Reflectivity and Attributes.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salehin, Z.; Woobaidullah, A. S. M.; Snigdha, S. S.

2015-12-01

Bengal Basin with its prolific gas rich province provides needed energy to Bangladesh. Present energy situation demands more Hydrocarbon explorations. Only 'Semutang' is discovered in the high amplitude structures, where rest of are in the gentle to moderate structures of western part of Chittagong-Tripura Fold Belt. But it has some major thrust faults which have strongly breached the reservoir zone. The major objectives of this research are interpretation of gas horizons and faults, then to perform velocity model, structural and property modeling to obtain reservoir properties. It is needed to properly identify the faults and reservoir heterogeneities. 3D modeling is widely used to reveal the subsurface structure in faulted zone where planning and development drilling is major challenge. Thirteen 2D seismic and six well logs have been used to identify six gas bearing horizons and a network of faults and to map the structure at reservoir level. Variance attributes were used to identify faults. Velocity model is performed for domain conversion. Synthetics were prepared from two wells where sonic and density logs are available. Well to seismic tie at reservoir zone shows good match with Direct Hydrocarbon Indicator on seismic section. Vsh, porosity, water saturation and permeability have been calculated and various cross plots among porosity logs have been shown. Structural modeling is used to make zone and layering accordance with minimum sand thickness. Fault model shows the possible fault network, those liable for several dry wells. Facies model have been constrained with Sequential Indicator Simulation method to show the facies distribution along the depth surfaces. Petrophysical models have been prepared with Sequential Gaussian Simulation to estimate petrophysical parameters away from the existing wells to other parts of the field and to observe heterogeneities in reservoir. Average porosity map for each gas zone were constructed. The outcomes of the research are an improved subsurface image of the seismic data (model), a porosity prediction for the reservoir, a reservoir quality map and also a fault map. The result shows a complex geologic model which may contribute to the economic potential of the field. For better understanding, 3D seismic survey, uncertainty and attributes analysis are necessary.
Communication: Relaxation-limited electronic currents in extended reservoir simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gruss, Daniel; Smolyanitsky, Alex; Zwolak, Michael

2017-10-01

Open-system approaches are gaining traction in the simulation of charge transport in nanoscale and molecular electronic devices. In particular, "extended reservoir" simulations, where explicit reservoir degrees of freedom are present, allow for the computation of both real-time and steady-state properties but require relaxation of the extended reservoirs. The strength of this relaxation, γ, influences the conductance, giving rise to a "turnover" behavior analogous to Kramers turnover in chemical reaction rates. We derive explicit, general expressions for the weak and strong relaxation limits. For weak relaxation, the conductance increases linearly with γ and every electronic state of the total explicit system contributes to the electronic current according to its "reduced" weight in the two extended reservoir regions. Essentially, this represents two conductors in series—one at each interface with the implicit reservoirs that provide the relaxation. For strong relaxation, a "dual" expression-one with the same functional form-results, except now proportional to 1/γ and dependent on the system of interest's electronic states, reflecting that the strong relaxation is localizing electrons in the extended reservoirs. Higher order behavior (e.g., γ2 or 1/γ2) can occur when there is a gap in the frequency spectrum. Moreover, inhomogeneity in the frequency spacing can give rise to a pseudo-plateau regime. These findings yield a physically motivated approach to diagnosing numerical simulations and understanding the influence of relaxation, and we examine their occurrence in both simple models and a realistic, fluctuating graphene nanoribbon.
A compositional reservoir simulator on distributed memory parallel computers

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rame, M.; Delshad, M.

1995-12-31

This paper presents the application of distributed memory parallel computes to field scale reservoir simulations using a parallel version of UTCHEM, The University of Texas Chemical Flooding Simulator. The model is a general purpose highly vectorized chemical compositional simulator that can simulate a wide range of displacement processes at both field and laboratory scales. The original simulator was modified to run on both distributed memory parallel machines (Intel iPSC/960 and Delta, Connection Machine 5, Kendall Square 1 and 2, and CRAY T3D) and a cluster of workstations. A domain decomposition approach has been taken towards parallelization of the code. Amore » portion of the discrete reservoir model is assigned to each processor by a set-up routine that attempts a data layout as even as possible from the load-balance standpoint. Each of these subdomains is extended so that data can be shared between adjacent processors for stencil computation. The added routines that make parallel execution possible are written in a modular fashion that makes the porting to new parallel platforms straight forward. Results of the distributed memory computing performance of Parallel simulator are presented for field scale applications such as tracer flood and polymer flood. A comparison of the wall-clock times for same problems on a vector supercomputer is also presented.« less
Improved dual-porosity models for petrophysical analysis of vuggy reservoirs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Haitao

2017-08-01

A new vug interconnection, isolated vug (IVG), was investigated through resistivity modeling and the dual-porosity model for connected vug (CVG) vuggy reservoirs was tested. The vuggy models were built by pore-scale modeling, and their electrical resistivity was calculated by the finite difference method. For CVG vuggy reservoirs, the CVG reduced formation factors and increased the porosity exponents, and the existing dual-porosity model failed to match these results. Based on the existing dual-porosity model, a conceptual dual-porosity model for CVG was developed by introducing a decoupled term to reduce the resistivity of the model. For IVG vuggy reservoirs, IVG increased the formation factors and porosity exponents. The existing dual-porosity model succeeded due to accurate calculation of the formation factors of the deformed interparticle porous media caused by the insertion of the IVG. Based on the existing dual-porosity model, a new porosity model for IVG vuggy reservoirs was developed by simultaneously recalculating the formation factors of the altered interparticle pore-scale models. The formation factors and porosity exponents from the improved and extended dual-porosity models for CVG and IVG vuggy reservoirs well matched the simulated formation factors and porosity exponents. This work is helpful for understanding the influence of connected and disconnected vugs on resistivity factors—an issue of particular importance in carbonates.
Development of a Reservoir System Operation Model for Water Sustainability in the Yaqui River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mounir, A.; Che, D.; Robles-Morua, A.; Kauneckis, D.

2017-12-01

The arid state of Sonora, Mexico underwent the Sonora SI project to provide additional water supply to the capital of Hermosillo. The main component of the project involves an interbasin transfer from the Yaqui River Basin (YRB) to the Sonora River Basin via the Independencia aqueduct. This project has generated conflicts over water among different social sectors in the YRB. To improve the management of the Yaqui reservoir system, we developed a daily watershed model. This model allowed us to predict the amount of water available in different regions of the basin. We integrated this simulation to an optimization model which calculates the best water allocation according to water rights established in Mexico's National Water Law. We compared different precipitation forcing scenarios: (1) a network of ground observations from Mexican water agencies during the historical period of 1980-2013, (2) gridded fields from the North America Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) at 12 km resolution, and (3) we will be studying a future forecast scenario. The simulation results were compared to historical observations at the three reservoirs existing in the YRB to generate confidence in the simulation tools. Our results are presented in the form of flow duration, reliability and exceedance frequency curves that are commonly used in the water management agencies. Through this effort, we anticipate building confidence among regional stakeholders in utilizing hydrological models in the development of reservoir operation policies.
Development of an Improved Simulator for Chemical and Microbial EOR Methods

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pope, Gary A.; Sepehrnoori, Kamy; Delshad, Mojdeh

2000-09-11

The objective of this research was to extend the capability of an existing simulator (UTCHEM) to improved oil recovery methods that use surfactants, polymers, gels, alkaline chemicals, microorganisms and foam as well as various combinations of these in both conventional and naturally fractured oil reservoirs. Task 1 is the addition of a dual-porosity model for chemical improved of recovery processes in naturally fractured oil reservoirs. Task 2 is the addition of a foam model. Task 3 addresses several numerical and coding enhancements that will greatly improve the versatility and performance of UTCHEM. Task 4 is the enhancements of physical propertymore » models.« less
Hydraulic Characteristics of the Lower Snake River During Periods of Juvenile Fall Chinook Migration

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cook, Chris B.; Dibrani, Berhon; Richmond, Marshall C.

2006-01-30

This report documents a four-year study to assess hydraulic conditions in the lower Snake River. The work was conducted for the Bonneville Power Administration, U.S. Department of Energy, by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. Cold water released from the Dworshak Reservoir hypolimnion during mid- to late-summer months cools the Clearwater River far below equilibrium temperature. The volume of released cold water augments the Clearwater River, and the combined total discharge is on the order of the Snake River discharge when the two rivers meet at their confluence near the upstream edge of Lower Granite Reservoir. With typical temperature differences betweenmore » the Clearwater and Snake rivers of 10°C or more during July and August, the density difference between the two rivers during summer flow augmentation periods is sufficient to stratify Lower Granite Reservoir as well as the other three reservoirs downstream. Because cooling of the river is desirable for migrating juvenile fall Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) during this same time period, the amount of mixing and cold water entrained into Lower Granite Reservoir’s epilimnion at the Clearwater/Snake River confluence is of key biological importance to juvenile fall Chinook salmon. Data collected during this project indicates the three reservoirs downstream of Lower Granite also stratify as direct result of flow augmentation from Dworshak Reservoir. These four lower Snake reservoirs are also heavily influenced by wind forcing at the water’s surface, and during periods of low river discharge, often behave like a two-layer lake. During these periods of stratification, lower river discharge, and wind forcing, the water in the upper layer of the reservoir is held in place or moves slightly upstream. This upper layer is also exposed to surface heating and may warm up to temperatures close to equilibrium temperature. The depth of this upper warm layer and its direction of travel may also be of key biological importance to juvenile fall Chinook salmon. This report describes field data collection, modeling, and analysis of hydrodynamic and temperature conditions in the Lower Granite Reservoir during the summer flow augmentation periods of 2002, 2003, and 2004 plus a brief one-week period in 2005 of Lower Monumental, Little Goose, and Lower Granite Reservoirs. Circulation patterns in all four lower Snake River reservoirs were numerically simulated for periods of 2002, 2003, 2004, and 2005 using CE-QUAL-W2. Simulation results show that these models are sufficiently capable of matching diurnal and long term temperature and velocity changes in the reservoirs. In addition, the confluence zone of the Clearwater and Snake rivers was modeled using the 3-D model Flow3-D. This model was used to better understand mixing processing and entrainment. Once calibrated and validated, the reservoir models were used to investigate downstream impacts of alternative reservoir operation schemes, such as increasing or decreasing the ratio of Clearwater to Snake discharge. Simulation results were also linked with the particle tracking model FINS to better understand alterations of integrated metrics due to alternative operation schemes. These findings indicate that significant alterations in water temperature throughout the lower Snake River are possible by altering hypolimnetic discharges from Dworshak Reservoir and may have a significant impact on the behavior of migrating juvenile fall Chinook salmon during periods of flow augmentation.« less
Development of an integrated hydrological modeling system for near-real-time multi-objective reservoir operation in large river basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, L.; Koike, T.

2010-12-01

The climate change-induced variability in hydrological cycles directly affects regional water resources management. For improved multiple multi-objective reservoir operation, an integrated modeling system has been developed by incorporating a global optimization system (SCE-UA) into a distributed biosphere hydrological model (WEB-DHM) coupled with the reservoir routing module. The reservoir storage change is estimated from the difference between the simulated inflows and outflows; while the reservoir water level can be defined from the updated reservoir storage by using the H-V curve. According to the reservoir water level, the new operation rule can be decided. For optimization: (1) WEB-DHM is calibrated for each dam’s inflows separately; (2) then the calibrated WEB-DHM is used to simulate inflows and outflows by assuming outflow proportional to inflow; and (3) the proportion coefficients are optimized with Shuffle Complex Evolution method (SCE-UA), to fulfill an objective function towards minimum flood risk at downstream and maximum reservoir water storage for future use. The GSMaP product offers hourly global precipitation maps in near real-time (about four hours after observation). Aiming at near real-time reservoir operation in large river basins, the integrated modeling system takes the inputs from both an operational global quantitative precipitation forecast (JMA-GPV; to achieve an optimal operation rule in the assumed lead time period) and the GSMaP product (to perform current operation with the obtained optimal rule, after correction by gauge rainfall). The newly-developed system was then applied to the Red River Basin, with an area of 160,000 km2, to test its performance for near real-time dam operation. In Vietnam, three reservoirs are located in the upstream of Hanoi city, with Hoa Binh the largest (69% of total volume). After calibration with the gauge rainfall, the inflows to three reservoirs are well simulated; the discharge and water level at Hanoi city are also well reproduced with the actual dam releases. With the corrected GSMaP rainfall (by using gauge rainfall), the inflows to reservoirs and the water level at Hanoi city can be also reasonably reproduced. The study aims at achieving an optimal operation rule in the lead time period (with the quantitative precipitation forecast) and then using it to perform current operation (with the corrected GSMaP rainfall). At Hanoi, there are relatively low flows in July, but high floods in August 2005. Results show that with the actual operation, dangerous water level in Hanoi was observed; while with the lead-time operation, the water level in Hanoi can be obviously cut down, and maximum water storage is also achieved for Hoa Binh reservoir at the end of flood season.
The application of neural network model to the simulation nitrous oxide emission in the hydro-fluctuation belt of Three Gorges Reservoir

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Lanlan

2017-04-01

Nitrous oxide is much more potent greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide. However, the estimation of N2O flux is usually clouded with uncertainty, mainly due to high spatial and temporal variations. This hampers the development of general mechanistic models for N2O emission as well, as most previously developed models were empirical or exhibited low predictability with numerous assumptions. In this study, we tested General Regression Neural Networks (GRNN) as an alternative to classic empirical models for simulating N2O emission in riparian zones of Reservoirs. GRNN and nonlinear regression (NLR) were applied to estimate the N2O flux of 1-year observations in riparian zones of Three Gorge Reservoir. NLR resulted in lower prediction power and higher residuals compared to GRNN. Although nonlinear regression model estimated similar average values of N2O, it could not capture the fluctuation patterns accurately. In contrast, GRNN model achieved a fairly high predictability, with an R2 of 0.59 for model validation, 0.77 for model calibration (training), and a low root mean square error (RMSE), indicating a high capacity to simulate the dynamics of N2O flux. According to a sensitivity analysis of the GRNN, nonlinear relationships between input variables and N2O flux were well explained. Our results suggest that the GRNN developed in this study has a greater performance in simulating variations in N2O flux than nonlinear regressions.
Three-Dimensional Modeling of Fracture Clusters in Geothermal Reservoirs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ghassemi, Ahmad

The objective of this is to develop a 3-D numerical model for simulating mode I, II, and III (tensile, shear, and out-of-plane) propagation of multiple fractures and fracture clusters to accurately predict geothermal reservoir stimulation using the virtual multi-dimensional internal bond (VMIB). Effective development of enhanced geothermal systems can significantly benefit from improved modeling of hydraulic fracturing. In geothermal reservoirs, where the temperature can reach or exceed 350oC, thermal and poro-mechanical processes play an important role in fracture initiation and propagation. In this project hydraulic fracturing of hot subsurface rock mass will be numerically modeled by extending the virtual multiplemore » internal bond theory and implementing it in a finite element code, WARP3D, a three-dimensional finite element code for solid mechanics. The new constitutive model along with the poro-thermoelastic computational algorithms will allow modeling the initiation and propagation of clusters of fractures, and extension of pre-existing fractures. The work will enable the industry to realistically model stimulation of geothermal reservoirs. The project addresses the Geothermal Technologies Office objective of accurately predicting geothermal reservoir stimulation (GTO technology priority item). The project goal will be attained by: (i) development of the VMIB method for application to 3D analysis of fracture clusters; (ii) development of poro- and thermoelastic material sub-routines for use in 3D finite element code WARP3D; (iii) implementation of VMIB and the new material routines in WARP3D to enable simulation of clusters of fractures while accounting for the effects of the pore pressure, thermal stress and inelastic deformation; (iv) simulation of 3D fracture propagation and coalescence and formation of clusters, and comparison with laboratory compression tests; and (v) application of the model to interpretation of injection experiments (planned by our industrial partner) with reference to the impact of the variations in injection rate and temperature, rock properties, and in-situ stress.« less
Simulated effects of water-level changes in the Mississippi River and Pokegama Reservoir on ground-water levels, Grand Rapids area, Minnesota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, Perry M.

2005-01-01

The extent of aquifer water-level changes resulting from these river, wetland, and lake water-level changes varied because of the complex hydrogeology of the study area. A 1.00-foot decline in reservoir/river water levels caused a maximum simulated ground-water-level decline in the middle aquifer near Jay Gould and Little Jay Gould Lakes of 1.09 feet and a maximum simulated ground-water-level decline of 1.00 foot in the lower aquifer near Cut-off and Blackwater Lakes. The amount and extent of ground-water-level changes in the middle and lower aquifers can be explained by the thickness, extent, and connectivity of the aquifers. Surface-water/ground-water interactions near wetlands and lakes with water levels unchanged from the calibrated model resulted in small water-table altitude differences among the simulations. Results of the ground-water modeling indicate that lowering of the reservoir and river water levels by 1.00 foot likely will not substantially affect water levels in the middle and lower aquifers.
Predicting Formation Damage in Aquifer Thermal Energy Storage Systems Utilizing a Coupled Hydraulic-Thermal-Chemical Reservoir Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Müller, Daniel; Regenspurg, Simona; Milsch, Harald; Blöcher, Guido; Kranz, Stefan; Saadat, Ali

2014-05-01

In aquifer thermal energy storage (ATES) systems, large amounts of energy can be stored by injecting hot water into deep or intermediate aquifers. In a seasonal production-injection cycle, water is circulated through a system comprising the porous aquifer, a production well, a heat exchanger and an injection well. This process involves large temperature and pressure differences, which shift chemical equilibria and introduce or amplify mechanical processes. Rock-fluid interaction such as dissolution and precipitation or migration and deposition of fine particles will affect the hydraulic properties of the porous medium and may lead to irreversible formation damage. In consequence, these processes determine the long-term performance of the ATES system and need to be predicted to ensure the reliability of the system. However, high temperature and pressure gradients and dynamic feedback cycles pose challenges on predicting the influence of the relevant processes. Within this study, a reservoir model comprising a coupled hydraulic-thermal-chemical simulation was developed based on an ATES demonstration project located in the city of Berlin, Germany. The structural model was created with Petrel, based on data available from seismic cross-sections and wellbores. The reservoir simulation was realized by combining the capabilities of multiple simulation tools. For the reactive transport model, COMSOL Multiphysics (hydraulic-thermal) and PHREEQC (chemical) were combined using the novel interface COMSOL_PHREEQC, developed by Wissmeier & Barry (2011). It provides a MATLAB-based coupling interface between both programs. Compared to using COMSOL's built-in reactive transport simulator, PHREEQC additionally calculates adsorption and reaction kinetics and allows the selection of different activity coefficient models in the database. The presented simulation tool will be able to predict the most important aspects of hydraulic, thermal and chemical transport processes relevant to formation damage in ATES systems. We would like to present preliminary results of the structural reservoir model and the hydraulic-thermal-chemical coupling for the demonstration site. Literature: Wissmeier, L. and Barry, D.A., 2011. Simulation tool for variably saturated flow with comprehensive geochemical reactions in two- and three-dimensional domains. Environmental Modelling & Software 26, 210-218.
The Thistle Field - Analysis of its past performance and optimisation of its future development

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bayat, M.G.; Tehrani, D.H.

1985-01-01

The Thistle Field geology and its reservoir performance over the past six years have been reviewed. The latest reservoir simulation study of the field, covering the performance history-matching, and the conclusions of various prediction cases are reported. The special features of PORES, Britoil in-house 3D 3-phase fully implicit numerical simulator and its modeling aids as applied to the Thistle Field are presented.
Fluid-line math model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kandelman, A.; Nelson, D. J.

1977-01-01

Simplified mathematical model simulates large hydraulic systems on either analog or digital computers. Models of pumps, servoactuators, reservoirs, accumulators, and valves are connected generating systems containing six hundred elements.
Simulating the impact of water storage on agricultural intensification and deforestation in Northern Thailand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gower, D.; Zeng, Z.; Caylor, K. K.; Wood, E. F.

2017-12-01

In the Nan province of Thailand, agriculture provides a livelihood for much of the population. In the province's lowlands, farmers grow rice, typically with access to irrigation from rivers draining the surrounding mountains. In the uplands, farmers grow rainfed maize, with very little irrigation. Soil erosion from these slopes quickly leads to soil degradation, decreasing yields and forcing farmers to cut down forests to create new farmland. Over the past decades, this practice has led to extensive deforestation throughout the uplands, including within the province's national parks. In response to these issues, the local administration has proposed building upland reservoirs that will provide farmers with greater access to irrigation water and allow them to intensify agricultural production, thus decreasing the need to expand into forested areas. Concerns have been raised, however, about the benefits of such plans as water may need to be pumped uphill from the reservoirs in some cases and soil erosion will remain a problem on the steepest slopes. Such concerns must be investigated before implementation to avoid wasting money on fruitless interventions. This project addresses the above concerns using an agent-based model (ABM) to simulate agricultural production and farmer decision-making in an upland catchment of the Nan province. Here we use HydroBlocks, a field scale land surface model, to simulate soil moisture and runoff at daily-30m resolution. These hydrological variables are integrated in an ABM framework to simulate agricultural production, reservoir capacity and farmer decision-making. As part of the framework, farmers may irrigate their crops using reservoir water but must pay pumping costs that depend on the location of their fields relative to the reservoir. At the end of each growing season, farmers sell their produce and may choose to plant the same crop on the same land, plant a different crop or clear more land for more crops. These decisions change the landscape, feeding back into the HydroBlocks model in subsequent years as changes to the land cover parameters. In this way, the model predicts the long-term impacts of reservoir construction on farmer livelihoods and forest cover in the province.
Mathematical modeling of high-pH chemical flooding

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bhuyan, D.; Lake, L.W.; Pope, G.A.

1990-05-01

This paper describes a generalized compositional reservoir simulator for high-pH chemical flooding processes. This simulator combines the reaction chemistry associated with these processes with the extensive physical- and flow-property modeling schemes of an existing micellar/polymer flood simulator, UTCHEM. Application of the model is illustrated for cases from a simple alkaline preflush to surfactant-enhanced alkaline-polymer flooding.
1D Thermal-Hydraulic-Chemical (THC) Reactive transport modeling for deep geothermal systems: A case study of Groß Schönebeck reservoir, Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Driba, D. L.; De Lucia, M.; Peiffer, S.

2014-12-01

Fluid-rock interactions in geothermal reservoirs are driven by the state of disequilibrium that persists among solid and solutes due to changing temperature and pressure. During operation of enhanced geothermal systems, injection of cooled water back into the reservoir disturbs the initial thermodynamic equilibrium between the reservoir and its geothermal fluid, which may induce modifications in permeability through changes in porosity and pore space geometry, consequently bringing about several impairments to the overall system.Modeling of fluid-rock interactions induced by injection of cold brine into Groß Schönebeck geothermal reservoir system situated in the Rotliegend sandstone at 4200m depth have been done by coupling geochemical modeling Code Phreeqc with OpenGeoSys. Through batch modeling the re-evaluation of the measured hydrochemical composition of the brine has been done using Quintessa databases, the results from the calculation indicate that a mineral phases comprising of K-feldspar, hematite, Barite, Calcite and Dolomite was found to match the hypothesis of equilibrium with the formation fluid, Reducing conditions are presumed in the model (pe = -3.5) in order to match the amount of observed dissolved Fe and thus considered as initial state for the reactive transport modeling. based on a measured composition of formation fluids and the predominant mineralogical assemblage of the host rock, a preliminary 1D Reactive transport modeling (RTM) was run with total time set to 30 years; results obtained for the initial simulation revealed that during this period, no significant change is evident for K-feldspar. Furthermore, the precipitation of calcite along the flow path in the brine results in a drop of pH from 6.2 to a value of 5.2 noticed over the simulated period. The circulation of cooled fluid in the reservoir is predicted to affect the temperature of the reservoir within the first 100 -150m from the injection well. Examination of porosity change in this simulation reveals that, porosity and permeability near the wellbore are enhanced after injection. This is chiefly due to the dissolution of calcite near the injection well and less extent by dolomite The porosity is improved by more than 14% at the injection well, but then decreases away from the well.
Initialising reservoir models for history matching using pre-production 3D seismic data: constraining methods and uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niri, Mohammad Emami; Lumley, David E.

2017-10-01

Integration of 3D and time-lapse 4D seismic data into reservoir modelling and history matching processes poses a significant challenge due to the frequent mismatch between the initial reservoir model, the true reservoir geology, and the pre-production (baseline) seismic data. A fundamental step of a reservoir characterisation and performance study is the preconditioning of the initial reservoir model to equally honour both the geological knowledge and seismic data. In this paper we analyse the issues that have a significant impact on the (mis)match of the initial reservoir model with well logs and inverted 3D seismic data. These issues include the constraining methods for reservoir lithofacies modelling, the sensitivity of the results to the presence of realistic resolution and noise in the seismic data, the geostatistical modelling parameters, and the uncertainties associated with quantitative incorporation of inverted seismic data in reservoir lithofacies modelling. We demonstrate that in a geostatistical lithofacies simulation process, seismic constraining methods based on seismic litho-probability curves and seismic litho-probability cubes yield the best match to the reference model, even when realistic resolution and noise is included in the dataset. In addition, our analyses show that quantitative incorporation of inverted 3D seismic data in static reservoir modelling carries a range of uncertainties and should be cautiously applied in order to minimise the risk of misinterpretation. These uncertainties are due to the limited vertical resolution of the seismic data compared to the scale of the geological heterogeneities, the fundamental instability of the inverse problem, and the non-unique elastic properties of different lithofacies types.
Optimization of Well Configuration for a Sedimentary Enhanced Geothermal Reservoir

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhou, Mengnan; Cho, JaeKyoung; Zerpa, Luis E.

The extraction of geothermal energy in the form of hot water from sedimentary rock formations could expand the current geothermal energy resources toward new regions. From previous work, we observed that sedimentary geothermal reservoirs with relatively low permeability would require the application of enhancement techniques (e.g., well hydraulic stimulation) to achieve commercial production/injection rates. In this paper we extend our previous work to develop a methodology to determine the optimum well configuration that maximizes the hydraulic performance of the geothermal system. The geothermal systems considered consist of one vertical well doublet system with hydraulic fractures, and three horizontal well configurationsmore » with open-hole completion, longitudinal fractures and transverse fractures, respectively. A commercial thermal reservoir simulation is used to evaluate the geothermal reservoir performance using as design parameters the well spacing and the length of the horizontal wells. The results obtained from the numerical simulations are used to build a response surface model based on the multiple linear regression method. The optimum configuration of the sedimentary geothermal systems is obtained from the analysis of the response surface model. The proposed methodology is applied to a case study based on a reservoir model of the Lyons sandstone formation, located in the Wattenberg field, Denver-Julesburg basin, Colorado.« less
Proactive modeling of water quality impacts of extreme precipitation events in a drinking water reservoir.

PubMed

Jeznach, Lillian C; Hagemann, Mark; Park, Mi-Hyun; Tobiason, John E

2017-10-01

Extreme precipitation events are of concern to managers of drinking water sources because these occurrences can affect both water supply quantity and quality. However, little is known about how these low probability events impact organic matter and nutrient loads to surface water sources and how these loads may impact raw water quality. This study describes a method for evaluating the sensitivity of a water body of interest from watershed input simulations under extreme precipitation events. An example application of the method is illustrated using the Wachusett Reservoir, an oligo-mesotrophic surface water reservoir in central Massachusetts and a major drinking water supply to metropolitan Boston. Extreme precipitation event simulations during the spring and summer resulted in total organic carbon, UV-254 (a surrogate measurement for reactive organic matter), and total algae concentrations at the drinking water intake that exceeded recorded maximums. Nutrient concentrations after storm events were less likely to exceed recorded historical maximums. For this particular reservoir, increasing inter-reservoir transfers of water with lower organic matter content after a large precipitation event has been shown in practice and in model simulations to decrease organic matter levels at the drinking water intake, therefore decreasing treatment associated oxidant demand, energy for UV disinfection, and the potential for formation of disinfection byproducts. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk Assessment of Carbon Sequestration into A Naturally Fractured Reservoir at Kevin Dome, Montana

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nguyen, Minh; Onishi, Tsubasa; Carey, James William

In this report, we describe risk assessment work done using the National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) applied to CO 2 storage at Kevin Dome, Montana. Geologic CO 2 sequestration in saline aquifers poses certain risks including CO 2/brine leakage through wells or non-sealing faults into groundwater or to the land surface. These risks are difficult to quantify due to data availability and uncertainty. One solution is to explore the consequences of these limitations by running large numbers of numerical simulations on the primary CO2 injection reservoir, shallow reservoirs/aquifers, faults, and wells to assess leakage risks and uncertainties. However, a largemore » number of full-physics simulations is usually too computationally expensive. The NRAP integrated assessment model (NRAP-IAM) uses reduced order models (ROMs) developed from full-physics simulations to address this issue. A powerful stochastic framework allows NRAPIAM to explore complex interactions among many uncertain variables and evaluate the likely performance of potential sequestration sites.« less
Exploitation and Optimization of Reservoir Performance in Hunton Formation, Oklahoma, Budget Period I, Class Revisit

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kelkar, Mohan

2002-04-02

This report explains the unusual characteristics of West Carney Field based on detailed geological and engineering analyses. A geological history that explains the presence of mobile water and oil in the reservoir was proposed. The combination of matrix and fractures in the reservoir explains the reservoir?s flow behavior. We confirm our hypothesis by matching observed performance with a simulated model and develop procedures for correlating core data to log data so that the analysis can be extended to other, similar fields where the core coverage may be limited.
Recovery Act. Development and Validation of an Advanced Stimulation Prediction Model for Enhanced Geothermal System

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gutierrez, Marte

The research project aims to develop and validate an advanced computer model that can be used in the planning and design of stimulation techniques to create engineered reservoirs for Enhanced Geothermal Systems. The specific objectives of the proposal are to: 1) Develop a true three-dimensional hydro-thermal fracturing simulator that is particularly suited for EGS reservoir creation. 2) Perform laboratory scale model tests of hydraulic fracturing and proppant flow/transport using a polyaxial loading device, and use the laboratory results to test and validate the 3D simulator. 3) Perform discrete element/particulate modeling of proppant transport in hydraulic fractures, and use the resultsmore » to improve understand of proppant flow and transport. 4) Test and validate the 3D hydro-thermal fracturing simulator against case histories of EGS energy production. 5) Develop a plan to commercialize the 3D fracturing and proppant flow/transport simulator. The project is expected to yield several specific results and benefits. Major technical products from the proposal include: 1) A true-3D hydro-thermal fracturing computer code that is particularly suited to EGS, 2) Documented results of scale model tests on hydro-thermal fracturing and fracture propping in an analogue crystalline rock, 3) Documented procedures and results of discrete element/particulate modeling of flow and transport of proppants for EGS applications, and 4) Database of monitoring data, with focus of Acoustic Emissions (AE) from lab scale modeling and field case histories of EGS reservoir creation.« less
Recovery Act. Development and Validation of an Advanced Stimulation Prediction Model for Enhanced Geothermal Systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gutierrez, Marte

2013-12-31

This research project aims to develop and validate an advanced computer model that can be used in the planning and design of stimulation techniques to create engineered reservoirs for Enhanced Geothermal Systems. The specific objectives of the proposal are to; Develop a true three-dimensional hydro-thermal fracturing simulator that is particularly suited for EGS reservoir creation; Perform laboratory scale model tests of hydraulic fracturing and proppant flow/transport using a polyaxial loading device, and use the laboratory results to test and validate the 3D simulator; Perform discrete element/particulate modeling of proppant transport in hydraulic fractures, and use the results to improve understandmore » of proppant flow and transport; Test and validate the 3D hydro-thermal fracturing simulator against case histories of EGS energy production; and Develop a plan to commercialize the 3D fracturing and proppant flow/transport simulator. The project is expected to yield several specific results and benefits. Major technical products from the proposal include; A true-3D hydro-thermal fracturing computer code that is particularly suited to EGS; Documented results of scale model tests on hydro-thermal fracturing and fracture propping in an analogue crystalline rock; Documented procedures and results of discrete element/particulate modeling of flow and transport of proppants for EGS applications; and Database of monitoring data, with focus of Acoustic Emissions (AE) from lab scale modeling and field case histories of EGS reservoir creation.« less
Constraining the effects of permeability uncertainty for geologic CO2 sequestration in a basalt reservoir

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jayne, R., Jr.; Pollyea, R.

2016-12-01

Carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) in geologic reservoirs is one strategy for reducing anthropogenic CO2 emissions from large-scale point-source emitters. Recent developments at the CarbFix CCS pilot in Iceland have shown that basalt reservoirs are highly effective for permanent mineral trapping on the basis of CO2-water-rock interactions, which result in the formation of carbonates minerals. In order to advance our understanding of basalt sequestration in large igneous provinces, this research uses numerical simulation to evaluate the feasibility of industrial-scale CO2 injections in the Columbia River Basalt Group (CRBG). Although bulk reservoir properties are well constrained on the basis of field and laboratory testing from the Wallula Basalt Sequestration Pilot Project, there remains significant uncertainty in the spatial distribution of permeability at the scale of individual basalt flows. Geostatistical analysis of hydrologic data from 540 wells illustrates that CRBG reservoirs are reasonably modeled as layered heterogeneous systems on the basis of basalt flow morphology; however, the regional dataset is insufficient to constrain permeability variability at the scale of an individual basalt flow. As a result, permeability distribution for this modeling study is established by centering the lognormal permeability distribution in the regional dataset over the bulk permeability measured at Wallula site, which results in a spatially random permeability distribution within the target reservoir. In order to quantify the effects of this permeability uncertainty, CO2 injections are simulated within 50 equally probable synthetic reservoir domains. Each model domain comprises three-dimensional geometry with 530,000 grid blocks, and fracture-matrix interaction is simulated as interacting continua for the two low permeability layers (flow interiors) bounding the injection zone. Results from this research illustrate that permeability uncertainty at the scale of individual basalt flows may significantly impact both injection pressure accumulation and CO2 distribution.
Reduced-Order Model for Leakage Through an Open Wellbore from the Reservoir due to Carbon Dioxide Injection

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pan, Lehua; Oldenburg, Curtis M.

Potential CO 2 leakage through existing open wellbores is one of the most significant hazards that need to be addressed in geologic carbon sequestration (GCS) projects. In the framework of the National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) which requires fast computations for uncertainty analysis, rigorous simulation of the coupled wellbore-reservoir system is not practical. We have developed a 7,200-point look-up table reduced-order model (ROM) for estimating the potential leakage rate up open wellbores in response to CO 2 injection nearby. The ROM is based on coupled simulations using T2Well/ECO2H which was run repeatedly for representative conditions relevant to NRAP to createmore » a look-up table response-surface ROM. The ROM applies to a wellbore that fully penetrates a 20-m thick reservoir that is used for CO 2 storage. The radially symmetric reservoir is assumed to have initially uniform pressure, temperature, gas saturation, and brine salinity, and it is assumed these conditions are held constant at the far-field boundary (100 m away from the wellbore). In such a system, the leakage can quickly reach quasi-steady state. The ROM table can be used to estimate both the free-phase CO 2 and brine leakage rates through an open well as a function of wellbore and reservoir conditions. Results show that injection-induced pressure and reservoir gas saturation play important roles in controlling leakage. Caution must be used in the application of this ROM because well leakage is formally transient and the ROM lookup table was populated using quasi-steady simulation output after 1000 time steps which may correspond to different physical times for the various parameter combinations of the coupled wellbore-reservoir system.« less
An efficient assisted history matching and uncertainty quantification workflow using Gaussian processes proxy models and variogram based sensitivity analysis: GP-VARS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rana, Sachin; Ertekin, Turgay; King, Gregory R.

2018-05-01

Reservoir history matching is frequently viewed as an optimization problem which involves minimizing misfit between simulated and observed data. Many gradient and evolutionary strategy based optimization algorithms have been proposed to solve this problem which typically require a large number of numerical simulations to find feasible solutions. Therefore, a new methodology referred to as GP-VARS is proposed in this study which uses forward and inverse Gaussian processes (GP) based proxy models combined with a novel application of variogram analysis of response surface (VARS) based sensitivity analysis to efficiently solve high dimensional history matching problems. Empirical Bayes approach is proposed to optimally train GP proxy models for any given data. The history matching solutions are found via Bayesian optimization (BO) on forward GP models and via predictions of inverse GP model in an iterative manner. An uncertainty quantification method using MCMC sampling in conjunction with GP model is also presented to obtain a probabilistic estimate of reservoir properties and estimated ultimate recovery (EUR). An application of the proposed GP-VARS methodology on PUNQ-S3 reservoir is presented in which it is shown that GP-VARS provides history match solutions in approximately four times less numerical simulations as compared to the differential evolution (DE) algorithm. Furthermore, a comparison of uncertainty quantification results obtained by GP-VARS, EnKF and other previously published methods shows that the P50 estimate of oil EUR obtained by GP-VARS is in close agreement to the true values for the PUNQ-S3 reservoir.
Offshore Storage Resource Assessment - Final Scientific/Technical Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Savage, Bill; Ozgen, Chet

The DOE developed volumetric equation for estimating Prospective Resources (CO 2 storage) in oil and gas reservoirs was utilized on each depleted field in the Federal GOM. This required assessment of the in-situ hydrocarbon fluid volumes for the fields under evaluation in order to apply the DOE equation. This project utilized public data from the U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) Reserves database and from a well reputed, large database (250,000+ wells) of GOM well and production data marketed by IHS, Inc. IHS interpreted structure map files were also accessed for a limited number ofmore » fields. The databases were used along with geological and petrophysical software to identify depleted oil and gas fields in the Federal GOM region. BOEM arranged for access by the project team to proprietary reservoir level maps under an NDA. Review of the BOEM’s Reserves database as of December 31, 2013 indicated that 675 fields in the region were depleted. NITEC identified and rank these 675 fields containing 3,514 individual reservoirs based on BOEM’s estimated OOIP or OGIP values available in the Reserves database. The estimated BOEM OOIP or OGIP values for five fields were validated by an independent evaluation using available petrophysical, geologic and engineering data in the databases. Once this validation was successfully completed, the BOEM ranked list was used to calculate the estimated CO 2 storage volume for each field/reservoir using the DOE CO 2 Resource Estimate Equation. This calculation assumed a range for the CO 2 efficiency factor in the equation, as it was not known at that point in time. NITEC then utilize reservoir simulation to further enhance and refine the DOE equation estimated range of CO 2 storage volumes. NITEC used a purpose built, publically available, 4-component, compositional reservoir simulator developed under funding from DOE (DE-FE0006015) to assess CO 2-EOR and CO 2 storage in 73 fields/461 reservoirs. This simulator was fast and easy to utilize and provided a valuable enhanced assessment and refinement of the estimated CO 2 storage volume for each reservoir simulated. The user interface was expanded to allow for calculation of a probability based assessment of the CO 2 storage volume based on typical uncertainties in operating conditions and reservoir properties during the CO 2 injection period. This modeling of the CO 2 storage estimates for the simulated reservoirs resulted in definition of correlations applicable to all reservoir types (a refined DOE equation) which can be used for predictive purposes using available public data. Application of the correlations to the 675 depleted fields yielded a total CO 2 storage capacity of 4,748 MM tons. The CO 2 storage assessments were supplemented with simulation modeling of eleven (11) oil reservoirs that quantified the change in the stored CO 2 storage volume with the addition of CO 2-EOR (Enhanced Oil Recovery) production. Application of CO 2-EOR to oil reservoirs resulted in higher volumes of CO 2 storage.« less
Modeling stream temperature in the Anthropocene: An earth system modeling approach

DOE PAGES

Li, Hong -Yi; Leung, L. Ruby; Tesfa, Teklu; ...

2015-10-29

A new large-scale stream temperature model has been developed within the Community Earth System Model (CESM) framework. The model is coupled with the Model for Scale Adaptive River Transport (MOSART) that represents river routing and a water management model (WM) that represents the effects of reservoir operations and water withdrawals on flow regulation. The coupled models allow the impacts of reservoir operations and withdrawals on stream temperature to be explicitly represented in a physically based and consistent way. The models have been applied to the Contiguous United States driven by observed meteorological forcing. It is shown that the model ismore » capable of reproducing stream temperature spatiotemporal variation satisfactorily by comparison against the observed streamflow from over 320 USGS stations. Including water management in the models improves the agreement between the simulated and observed streamflow at a large number of stream gauge stations. Both climate and water management are found to have important influence on the spatiotemporal patterns of stream temperature. More interestingly, it is quantitatively estimated that reservoir operation could cool down stream temperature in the summer low-flow season (August – October) by as much as 1~2oC over many places, as water management generally mitigates low flow, which has important implications to aquatic ecosystems. In conclusion, sensitivity of the simulated stream temperature to input data and reservoir operation rules used in the WM model motivates future directions to address some limitations in the current modeling framework.« less
A simple spatiotemporal rabies model for skunk and bat interaction in northeast Texas.

PubMed

Borchering, Rebecca K; Liu, Hao; Steinhaus, Mara C; Gardner, Carl L; Kuang, Yang

2012-12-07

We formulate a simple partial differential equation model in an effort to qualitatively reproduce the spread dynamics and spatial pattern of rabies in northeast Texas with overlapping reservoir species (skunks and bats). Most existing models ignore reservoir species or model them with patchy models by ordinary differential equations. In our model, we incorporate interspecies rabies infection in addition to rabid population random movement. We apply this model to the confirmed case data from northeast Texas with most parameter values obtained or computed from the literature. Results of simulations using both our skunk-only model and our skunk and bat model demonstrate that the model with overlapping reservoir species more accurately reproduces the progression of rabies spread in northeast Texas. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Climate Variability Impacts on Watershed Nutrient Delivery and Reservoir Production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

White, J. D.; Prochnow, S. J.; Zygo, L. M.; Byars, B. W.

2005-05-01

Reservoirs in agricultural dominated watersheds tend to exhibit pulse-system behavior especially if located in climates dominated by summer convective precipitation inputs. Concentration and bulk mass of nutrient and sediment inputs into reservoir systems vary in terms of timing and magnitude of delivery from watershed sources to reservoirs under these climate conditions. Reservoir management often focuses on long-term average inputs without considering short and long-term impacts of variation in loading. In this study we modeled a watershed-reservoir system to assess how climate variability affects reservoir primary production through shifts in external loading and internal recycling of limiting nutrients. The Bosque watershed encompasses 423,824 ha in central Texas which delivers water to Lake Waco, a 2900 ha reservoir that is the primary water source for the city of Waco and surrounding areas. Utilizing the Soil Water Assessment Tool for the watershed and river simulations and the CE-Qual-2e model for the reservoir, hydrologic and nutrient dynamics were simulated for a 10 year period encompassing two ENSO cycles. The models were calibrated based on point measurement of water quality attributes for a two year time period. Results indicated that watershed delivery of nutrients was affected by the presence and density of small flood-control structure in the watershed. However, considerable nitrogen and phosphorus loadings were derived from soils in the upper watershed which have had long-term waste-application from concentrated animal feeding operations. During El Niño years, nutrient and sediment loads increased by 3 times above non-El Niño years. The simulated response within the reservoir to these nutrient and sediment loads had both direct and indirect. Productivity evaluated from chlorophyll a and algal biomass increased under El Niño conditions, however species composition shifts were found with an increase in cyanobacteria dominance. In non-El Niño years, species composition was more evenly distributed. At the longer time scale, El Niño events with accompanying increase in nutrient loads were followed by years in which productivity declined below levels predicted solely by nutrient ratios. This was due to subtle shifts in organic matter decomposition where productive years are followed by increases in refractory material which sequesters nutrients and reduces internal loading.
Climate Change Impacts on River Temperature in the Southeastern United States: A Case Study of the Tennessee River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Y.; Niemeyer, R. J.; Mao, Y.; Yearsley, J. R.; Nijssen, B.

2016-12-01

In the coming decades, climate change and population growth are expected to affect water and energy supply as well as demand in the southeastern United States. Changes in temperature and precipitation impact river flow and stream temperature with implications for hydropower generation, industrial and municipal water supply, cooling for thermo-electric power plants, agricultural irrigation, ecosystem functions and flood control. At the same time, water and energy demand are expected to change in response to temperature increase, population growth and changing crop water requirements. As part of a multi-institution study of the food-energy-water nexus in the southeastern U.S., we are developing coupled hydrological and stream temperature models that will be linked to water resources, power systems and crop models at a later stage. Here we evaluate the ability of our system to simulate water supply and stream temperature in the Tennessee River Basin using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macroscale hydrology model coupled to the River Basin Model (RBM), a 1-D semi-Lagrangian river temperature model, which has recently been expanded with a two-layer reservoir temperature model. Simulations with VIC-RBM were performed for the Tennessee River Basin at 1/8-degree spatial resolution and a temporal resolution of 1 day or less. Reservoir releases were prescribed based on historic operating rules. In future iterations, these releases will be modeled directly by a water resources model that incorporates flood control, and power and agricultural water demands. We compare simulated flows, as well as stream and reservoir temperatures with observed flows and temperatures throughout the basin. In preparation for later stages of the project, we also perform a set of climate change sensitivity experiments to evaluate how changes in climate may impact river and reservoir temperature.
A modular BLSS simulation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rummel, John D.; Volk, Tyler

1987-01-01

A bioregenerative life support system (BLSS) for extraterrestrial use will be faced with coordination problems more acute than those in any ecosystem found on Earth. A related problem in BLSS design is providing an interface between the various life support processors, one that will allow for their coordination while still allowing for system expansion. A modular model is presented of a BLSS that interfaces system processors only with the material storage reservoirs, allowing those reservoirs to act as the principal buffers in the system and thus minimizing difficulties with processor coordination. The modular nature of the model allows independent development of the detailed submodels that exist within the model framework. Using this model, BLSS dynamics were investigated under normal conditions and under various failure modes. Partial and complete failures of various components, such as the waste processors or the plants themselves, drive transient responses in the model system, allowing the examination of the effectiveness of the system reservoirs as buffers. The results from simulations help to determine control strategies and BLSS design requirements. An evolved version could be used as an interactive control aid in a future BLSS.
Optimizing Sustainable Geothermal Heat Extraction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patel, Iti; Bielicki, Jeffrey; Buscheck, Thomas

2016-04-01

Geothermal heat, though renewable, can be depleted over time if the rate of heat extraction exceeds the natural rate of renewal. As such, the sustainability of a geothermal resource is typically viewed as preserving the energy of the reservoir by weighing heat extraction against renewability. But heat that is extracted from a geothermal reservoir is used to provide a service to society and an economic gain to the provider of that service. For heat extraction used for market commodities, sustainability entails balancing the rate at which the reservoir temperature renews with the rate at which heat is extracted and converted into economic profit. We present a model for managing geothermal resources that combines simulations of geothermal reservoir performance with natural resource economics in order to develop optimal heat mining strategies. Similar optimal control approaches have been developed for managing other renewable resources, like fisheries and forests. We used the Non-isothermal Unsaturated-saturated Flow and Transport (NUFT) model to simulate the performance of a sedimentary geothermal reservoir under a variety of geologic and operational situations. The results of NUFT are integrated into the optimization model to determine the extraction path over time that maximizes the net present profit given the performance of the geothermal resource. Results suggest that the discount rate that is used to calculate the net present value of economic gain is a major determinant of the optimal extraction path, particularly for shallower and cooler reservoirs, where the regeneration of energy due to the natural geothermal heat flux is a smaller percentage of the amount of energy that is extracted from the reservoir.
Modelling sub-daily evaporation from a small reservoir.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McGloin, Ryan; McGowan, Hamish; McJannet, David; Burn, Stewart

2013-04-01

Accurate quantification of evaporation from small water storages is essential for water management and is also required as input in some regional hydrological and meteorological models. Global estimates of the number of small storages or lakes (< 0.1 kilometers) are estimated to be in the order of 300 million (Downing et al., 2006). However, direct evaporation measurements at small reservoirs using the eddy covariance or scintillometry techniques have been limited due to their expensive and complex nature. To correctly represent the effect that small water bodies have on the regional hydrometeorology, reliable estimates of sub-daily evaporation are necessary. However, evaporation modelling studies at small reservoirs have so far been limited to quantifying daily estimates. In order to ascertain suitable methods for accurately modelling hourly evaporation from a small reservoir, this study compares evaporation results measured by the eddy covariance method at a small reservoir in southeast Queensland, Australia, to results from several modelling approaches using both over-water and land-based meteorological measurements. Accurate predictions of hourly evaporation were obtained by a simple theoretical mass transfer model requiring only over-water measurements of wind speed, humidity and water surface temperature. An evaporation model that was recently developed for use in small reservoir environments by Granger and Hedstrom (2011), appeared to overestimate the impact stability had on evaporation. While evaporation predictions made by the 1-dimensional hydrodynamics model, DYRESM (Dynamic Reservoir Simulation Model) (Imberger and Patterson, 1981), showed reasonable agreement with measured values. DYRESM did not show any substantial improvement in evaporation prediction when inflows and out flows were included and only a slighter better correlation was shown when over-water meteorological measurements were used in place of land-based measurements. Downing, J. A., Y. T. Prairie, J. J. Cole, C. M. Duarte, L. J. Tranvik, R. G. Striegl, W. H. McDowell, P. Kortelainen, N. F. Caraco, J. M. Melack and J. J. Middelburg (2006), The global abundance and size distribution of lakes, ponds, and impoundments, Limnology and Oceanography, 51, 2388-2397. Granger, R.J. and N. Hedstrom (2011), Modelling hourly rates of evaporation from small lakes, Hydrological and Earth System Sciences, 15, doi:10.5194/hess-15-267-2011. Imberger, J. and J.C. Patterson (1981), Dynamic Reservoir Simulation Model - DYRESM: 5, In: Transport Models for Inland and Coastal Waters. H.B. Fischer (Ed.). Academic Press, New York, 310-361.
Modeling Hydrodynamics, Water Temperature, and Suspended Sediment in Detroit Lake, Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sullivan, Annett B.; Rounds, Stewart A.; Sobieszczyk, Steven; Bragg, Heather M.

2007-01-01

Detroit Lake is a large reservoir on the North Santiam River in west-central Oregon. Water temperature and suspended sediment are issues of concern in the river downstream of the reservoir. A CE-QUAL-W2 model was constructed to simulate hydrodynamics, water temperature, total dissolved solids, and suspended sediment in Detroit Lake. The model was calibrated for calendar years 2002 and 2003, and for a period of storm runoff from December 1, 2005, to February 1, 2006. Input data included lake bathymetry, meteorology, reservoir outflows, and tributary inflows, water temperatures, total dissolved solids, and suspended sediment concentrations. Two suspended sediment size groups were modeled: one for suspended sand and silt with particle diameters larger than 2 micrometers, and another for suspended clay with particle diameters less than or equal to 2 micrometers. The model was calibrated using lake stage data, lake profile data, and data from a continuous water-quality monitor on the North Santiam River near Niagara, about 6 kilometers downstream of Detroit Dam. The calibrated model was used to estimate sediment deposition in the reservoir, examine the sources of suspended sediment exiting the reservoir, and examine the effect of the reservoir on downstream water temperatures.
Assessing the weighted multi-objective adaptive surrogate model optimization to derive large-scale reservoir operating rules with sensitivity analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Jingwen; Wang, Xu; Liu, Pan; Lei, Xiaohui; Li, Zejun; Gong, Wei; Duan, Qingyun; Wang, Hao

2017-01-01

The optimization of large-scale reservoir system is time-consuming due to its intrinsic characteristics of non-commensurable objectives and high dimensionality. One way to solve the problem is to employ an efficient multi-objective optimization algorithm in the derivation of large-scale reservoir operating rules. In this study, the Weighted Multi-Objective Adaptive Surrogate Model Optimization (WMO-ASMO) algorithm is used. It consists of three steps: (1) simplifying the large-scale reservoir operating rules by the aggregation-decomposition model, (2) identifying the most sensitive parameters through multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) for dimensional reduction, and (3) reducing computational cost and speeding the searching process by WMO-ASMO, embedded with weighted non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm II (WNSGAII). The intercomparison of non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGAII), WNSGAII and WMO-ASMO are conducted in the large-scale reservoir system of Xijiang river basin in China. Results indicate that: (1) WNSGAII surpasses NSGAII in the median of annual power generation, increased by 1.03% (from 523.29 to 528.67 billion kW h), and the median of ecological index, optimized by 3.87% (from 1.879 to 1.809) with 500 simulations, because of the weighted crowding distance and (2) WMO-ASMO outperforms NSGAII and WNSGAII in terms of better solutions (annual power generation (530.032 billion kW h) and ecological index (1.675)) with 1000 simulations and computational time reduced by 25% (from 10 h to 8 h) with 500 simulations. Therefore, the proposed method is proved to be more efficient and could provide better Pareto frontier.
Core analysis of heterogeneous rocks using experimental observations and digital whole core simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jackson, S. J.; Krevor, S. C.; Agada, S.

2017-12-01

A number of studies have demonstrated the prevalent impact that small-scale rock heterogeneity can have on larger scale flow in multiphase flow systems including petroleum production and CO2sequestration. Larger scale modeling has shown that this has a significant impact on fluid flow and is possibly a significant source of inaccuracy in reservoir simulation. Yet no core analysis protocol has been developed that faithfully represents the impact of these heterogeneities on flow functions used in modeling. Relative permeability is derived from core floods performed at conditions with high flow potential in which the impact of capillary heterogeneity is voided. A more accurate representation would be obtained if measurements were made at flow conditions where the impact of capillary heterogeneity on flow is scaled to be representative of the reservoir system. This, however, is generally impractical due to laboratory constraints and the role of the orientation of the rock heterogeneity. We demonstrate a workflow of combined observations and simulations, in which the impact of capillary heterogeneity may be faithfully represented in the derivation of upscaled flow properties. Laboratory measurements that are a variation of conventional protocols are used for the parameterization of an accurate digital rock model for simulation. The relative permeability at the range of capillary numbers relevant to flow in the reservoir is derived primarily from numerical simulations of core floods that include capillary pressure heterogeneity. This allows flexibility in the orientation of the heterogeneity and in the range of flow rates considered. We demonstrate the approach in which digital rock models have been developed alongside core flood observations for three applications: (1) A Bentheimer sandstone with a simple axial heterogeneity to demonstrate the validity and limitations of the approach, (2) a set of reservoir rocks from the Captain sandstone in the UK North Sea targeted for CO2 storage, and for which the use of capillary pressure hysteresis is necessary, and (3) a secondary CO2-EOR production of residual oil from a Berea sandstone with layered heterogeneities. In all cases the incorporation of heterogeneity is shown to be key to the ultimate derivation of flow properties representative of the reservoir system.
Gas Flow Tightly Coupled to Elastoplastic Geomechanics for Tight- and Shale-Gas Reservoirs: Material Failure and Enhanced Permeability

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kim, Jihoon; Moridis, George J.

We investigate coupled flow and geomechanics in gas production from extremely low permeability reservoirs such as tight and shale gas reservoirs, using dynamic porosity and permeability during numerical simulation. In particular, we take the intrinsic permeability as a step function of the status of material failure, and the permeability is updated every time step. We consider gas reservoirs with the vertical and horizontal primary fractures, employing the single and dynamic double porosity (dual continuum) models. We modify the multiple porosity constitutive relations for modeling the double porous continua for flow and geomechanics. The numerical results indicate that production of gasmore » causes redistribution of the effective stress fields, increasing the effective shear stress and resulting in plasticity. Shear failure occurs not only near the fracture tips but also away from the primary fractures, which indicates generation of secondary fractures. These secondary fractures increase the permeability significantly, and change the flow pattern, which in turn causes a change in distribution of geomechanical variables. From various numerical tests, we find that shear failure is enhanced by a large pressure drop at the production well, high Biot's coefficient, low frictional and dilation angles. Smaller spacing between the horizontal wells also contributes to faster secondary fracturing. When the dynamic double porosity model is used, we observe a faster evolution of the enhanced permeability areas than that obtained from the single porosity model, mainly due to a higher permeability of the fractures in the double porosity model. These complicated physics for stress sensitive reservoirs cannot properly be captured by the uncoupled or flow-only simulation, and thus tightly coupled flow and geomechanical models are highly recommended to accurately describe the reservoir behavior during gas production in tight and shale gas reservoirs and to smartly design production scenarios.« less
Gas Flow Tightly Coupled to Elastoplastic Geomechanics for Tight- and Shale-Gas Reservoirs: Material Failure and Enhanced Permeability

DOE PAGES

Kim, Jihoon; Moridis, George J.

2014-12-01

We investigate coupled flow and geomechanics in gas production from extremely low permeability reservoirs such as tight and shale gas reservoirs, using dynamic porosity and permeability during numerical simulation. In particular, we take the intrinsic permeability as a step function of the status of material failure, and the permeability is updated every time step. We consider gas reservoirs with the vertical and horizontal primary fractures, employing the single and dynamic double porosity (dual continuum) models. We modify the multiple porosity constitutive relations for modeling the double porous continua for flow and geomechanics. The numerical results indicate that production of gasmore » causes redistribution of the effective stress fields, increasing the effective shear stress and resulting in plasticity. Shear failure occurs not only near the fracture tips but also away from the primary fractures, which indicates generation of secondary fractures. These secondary fractures increase the permeability significantly, and change the flow pattern, which in turn causes a change in distribution of geomechanical variables. From various numerical tests, we find that shear failure is enhanced by a large pressure drop at the production well, high Biot's coefficient, low frictional and dilation angles. Smaller spacing between the horizontal wells also contributes to faster secondary fracturing. When the dynamic double porosity model is used, we observe a faster evolution of the enhanced permeability areas than that obtained from the single porosity model, mainly due to a higher permeability of the fractures in the double porosity model. These complicated physics for stress sensitive reservoirs cannot properly be captured by the uncoupled or flow-only simulation, and thus tightly coupled flow and geomechanical models are highly recommended to accurately describe the reservoir behavior during gas production in tight and shale gas reservoirs and to smartly design production scenarios.« less

An Advanced Reservoir Simulator for Tracer Transport in Multicomponent Multiphase Compositional Flow and Applications to the Cranfield CO2 Sequestration Site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moortgat, J.

2015-12-01

Reservoir simulators are widely used to constrain uncertainty in the petrophysical properties of subsurface formations by matching the history of injection and production data. However, such measurements may be insufficient to uniquely characterize a reservoir's properties. Monitoring of natural (isotopic) and introduced tracers is a developing technology to further interrogate the subsurface for applications such as enhanced oil recovery from conventional and unconventional resources, and CO2 sequestration. Oak Ridge National Laboratory has been piloting this tracer technology during and following CO2 injection at the Cranfield, Mississippi, CO2 sequestration test site. Two campaigns of multiple perfluorocarbon tracers were injected together with CO2 and monitored at two wells at 68 m and 112 m from the injection site. The tracer data suggest that multiple CO2 flow paths developed towards the monitoring wells, indicative of either channeling through high permeability pathways or of fingering. The results demonstrate that tracers provide an important complement to transient pressure data. Numerical modeling is essential to further explain and interpret the observations. To aid the development of tracer technology, we enhanced a compositional multiphase reservoir simulator to account for tracer transport. Our research simulator uses higher-order finite element (FE) methods that can capture the small-scale onset of fingering on the coarse grids required for field-scale modeling, and allows for unstructured grids and anisotropic heterogeneous permeability fields. Mass transfer between fluid phases and phase behavior are modeled with rigorous equation-of-state based phase-split calculations. We present our tracer simulator and preliminary results related to the Cranfield experiments. Applications to noble gas tracers in unconventional resources are presented by Darrah et al.
Drainage-system development in consecutive melt seasons at a polythermal, Arctic glacier, evaluated by flow-recession analysis and linear-reservoir simulation.

PubMed

Hodgkins, Richard; Cooper, Richard; Tranter, Martyn; Wadham, Jemma

2013-07-26

[1] The drainage systems of polythermal glaciers play an important role in high-latitude hydrology, and are determinants of ice flow rate. Flow-recession analysis and linear-reservoir simulation of runoff time series are here used to evaluate seasonal and inter-annual variability in the drainage system of the polythermal Finsterwalderbreen, Svalbard, in 1999 and 2000. Linear-flow recessions are pervasive, with mean coefficients of a fast reservoir varying from 16 (1999) to 41 h (2000), and mean coefficients of an intermittent, slow reservoir varying from 54 (1999) to 114 h (2000). Drainage-system efficiency is greater overall in the first of the two seasons, the simplest explanation of which is more rapid depletion of the snow cover. Reservoir coefficients generally decline during each season (at 0.22 h d -1 in 1999 and 0.52 h d -1 in 2000), denoting an increase in drainage efficiency. However, coefficients do not exhibit a consistent relationship with discharge. Finsterwalderbreen therefore appears to behave as an intermediate case between temperate glaciers and other polythermal glaciers with smaller proportions of temperate ice. Linear-reservoir runoff simulations exhibit limited sensitivity to a relatively wide range of reservoir coefficients, although the use of fixed coefficients in a spatially lumped model can generate significant subseasonal error. At Finsterwalderbreen, an ice-marginal channel with the characteristics of a fast reservoir, and a subglacial upwelling with the characteristics of a slow reservoir, both route meltwater to the terminus. This suggests that drainage-system components of significantly contrasting efficiencies can coexist spatially and temporally at polythermal glaciers.
Mathematical modeling of the thermal and hydrodynamic structure of the cooling reservoir

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saminskiy, G.; Debolskaya, E.

2012-04-01

Hydrothermal conditions of the cooling reservoir is determined by the heat and mass transfer from the water surface to the atmosphere and the processes of heat transfer directly in the water mass of the reservoir. As the capacity of power plants, the corresponding increase in the volume of heated water and the use of deep lakes and reservoirs as coolers there is a need to develop new, more accurate, and the application of existing methods for the numerical simulation. In calculating the hydrothermal regime it must take into account the effect of wind, density (buoyancy) forces, and other data of the cooling reservoir. In addition to solving practical problems it is important to know not only the magnitude of the average temperature, but also its area and depth distribution. A successful solution can be achieved through mathematical modeling of general systems of equations of transport processes and the correct formulation of the problem, based on appropriate initial data. The purpose of the work is application of software package GETM for simulating the hydrothermal regime of cooling reservoir with an estimate of three-dimensional structure of transfer processes, the effects of wind, the friction of the water surface. Three-dimensional models are rarely applied, especially for far-field problems. If such models are required, experts in the field must develop and apply them. Primary physical processes included are surface heat transfer, short-wave and long-wave radiation and penetration, convective mixing, wind and flow induced mixing, entrainment of ambient water by pumped-storage inflows, inflow density stratification as impacted by temperature and dissolved and suspended solids. The model forcing data consists of the system bathymetry developed into the model grid; the boundary condition flow and temperature; the tributary and flow and temperature; and the system meteorology. Ivankovskoe reservoir belongs to the reservoirs of valley type (Tver region, Russia). It is used as a cooling reservoir for Konakovskaya power plant. It dumps the heated water in the Moshkovichevsky bay. Thermal and hydrodynamic structure of the Moshkovichevsky Bay is particular interest as the object of direct influence of heated water discharge. To study the effect of thermal discharge into the Ivankovskoe reservoir the model of the Moshkovichevsky Bay was built, which is subject to the largest thermal pollution. Step of the calculation grid is 25 meters. For further verification of the model field investigations were conducted in August-September 2011. The modeling results satisfactorily describe the thermal and hydrodynamic structure of the Moshkovichevsky Bay.
Wastewater injection and slip triggering: Results from a 3D coupled reservoir/rate-and-state model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Babazadeh, M.; Olson, J. E.; Schultz, R.

2017-12-01

Seismicity induced by fluid injection is controlled by parameters related to injection conditions, reservoir properties, and fault frictional behavior. We present results from a combined model that brings together injection physics, reservoir dynamics, and fault physics to better explain the primary controls on induced seismicity. We created a 3D fluid flow simulator using the embedded discrete fracture technique and then coupled it with a 3D displacement discontinuity model that uses rate and state friction to model slip events. The model is composed of three layers, including the top-seal, the injection reservoir, and the basement. Permeability is anisotropic (vertical vs horizontal) and along with porosity varies by layer. Injection control can be either rate or pressure. Fault properties include size, 2D permeability, and frictional properties. Several suites of simulations were run to evaluate the relative importance of each of the factors from all three parameter groups. We find that the injection parameters interact with the reservoir parameters in the context of the fault physics and these relations change for different reservoir and fault characteristics, leading to the need to examine the injection parameters only within the context of a particular faulted reservoir. For a reservoir with no flow boundaries, low permeability (5 md), and a fault with high fault-parallel permeability and critical stress, injection rate exerts the strongest control on magnitude and frequency of earthquakes. However, for a higher permeability reservoir (80 md), injection volume becomes the more important factor. Fault permeability structure is a key factor in inducing earthquakes in basement rocks below the injection reservoir. The initial failure state of the fault, which is challenging to assess, can have a big effect on the size and timing of events. For a fault 2 MPa below critical state, we were able to induce a slip event, but it occurred late in the injection history and was limited to a subset of the fault extent. A case starting at critical stress resulted in a rupture that propagated throughout the entire physical extent of the fault generated a larger magnitude earthquake. This physics-based model can contribute to assessing the risk associated with injection activities and providing guidelines for hazard mitigation.
iTOUGH2-EOS1SC. Multiphase Reservoir Simulator for Water under Sub- and Supercritical Conditions. User's Guide

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Magnusdottir, Lilja; Finsterle, Stefan

2015-03-01

Supercritical fluids exist near magmatic heat sources in geothermal reservoirs, and the high enthalpy fluid is becoming more desirable for energy production with advancing technology. In geothermal modeling, the roots of the geothermal systems are normally avoided but in order to accurately predict the thermal behavior when wells are drilled close to magmatic intrusions, it is necessary to incorporate the heat sources into the modeling scheme. Modeling supercritical conditions poses a variety of challenges due to the large gradients in fluid properties near the critical zone. This work focused on using the iTOUGH2 simulator to model the extreme temperature andmore » pressure conditions in magmatic geothermal systems.« less
Risk Based Reservoir Operations Using Ensemble Streamflow Predictions for Lake Mendocino in Mendocino County, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delaney, C.; Mendoza, J.; Whitin, B.; Hartman, R. K.

2017-12-01

Ensemble Forecast Operations (EFO) is a risk based approach of reservoir flood operations that incorporates ensemble streamflow predictions (ESPs) made by NOAA's California-Nevada River Forecast Center (CNRFC). With the EFO approach, each member of an ESP is individually modeled to forecast system conditions and calculate risk of reaching critical operational thresholds. Reservoir release decisions are computed which seek to manage forecasted risk to established risk tolerance levels. A water management model was developed for Lake Mendocino, a 111,000 acre-foot reservoir located near Ukiah, California, to evaluate the viability of the EFO alternative to improve water supply reliability but not increase downstream flood risk. Lake Mendocino is a dual use reservoir, which is owned and operated for flood control by the United States Army Corps of Engineers and is operated for water supply by the Sonoma County Water Agency. Due to recent changes in the operations of an upstream hydroelectric facility, this reservoir has suffered from water supply reliability issues since 2007. The EFO alternative was simulated using a 26-year (1985-2010) ESP hindcast generated by the CNRFC, which approximates flow forecasts for 61 ensemble members for a 15-day horizon. Model simulation results of the EFO alternative demonstrate a 36% increase in median end of water year (September 30) storage levels over existing operations. Additionally, model results show no increase in occurrence of flows above flood stage for points downstream of Lake Mendocino. This investigation demonstrates that the EFO alternative may be a viable approach for managing Lake Mendocino for multiple purposes (water supply, flood mitigation, ecosystems) and warrants further investigation through additional modeling and analysis.
Variability of wet troposphere delays over inland reservoirs as simulated by a high-resolution regional climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clark, E.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

2014-12-01

Satellite radar altimetry is widely used for measuring global sea level variations and, increasingly, water height variations of inland water bodies. Existing satellite radar altimeters measure water surfaces directly below the spacecraft (approximately at nadir). Over the ocean, most of these satellites use radiometry to measure the delay of radar signals caused by water vapor in the atmosphere (also known as the wet troposphere delay (WTD)). However, radiometry can only be used to estimate this delay over the largest inland water bodies, such as the Great Lakes, due to spatial resolution issues. As a result, atmospheric models are typically used to simulate and correct for the WTD at the time of observations. The resolutions of these models are quite coarse, at best about 5000 km2 at 30˚N. The upcoming NASA- and CNES-led Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission, on the other hand, will use interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) techniques to measure a 120-km-wide swath of the Earth's surface. SWOT is expected to make useful measurements of water surface elevation and extent (and storage change) for inland water bodies at spatial scales as small as 250 m, which is much smaller than current altimetry targets and several orders of magnitude smaller than the models used for wet troposphere corrections. Here, we calculate WTD from very high-resolution (4/3-km to 4-km) simulations of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) regional climate model, and use the results to evaluate spatial variations in WTD. We focus on six U.S. reservoirs: Lake Elwell (MT), Lake Pend Oreille (ID), Upper Klamath Lake (OR), Elephant Butte (NM), Ray Hubbard (TX), and Sam Rayburn (TX). The reservoirs vary in climate, shape, use, and size. Because evaporation from open water impacts local water vapor content, we compare time series of WTD over land and water in the vicinity of each reservoir. To account for resolution effects, we examine the difference in WRF-simulated WTD averaged over ECMWF and NCEP-NCAR resolution grid cells and compare the magnitudes of each over reservoirs. Finally, we also test the degree to which, if uncorrected, the WTD would dampen or strengthen measured changes in water levels (and storage) at each reservoir.
Reservoir Modeling by Data Integration via Intermediate Spaces and Artificial Intelligence Tools in MPS Simulation Frameworks

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ahmadi, Rouhollah, E-mail: rouhollahahmadi@yahoo.com; Khamehchi, Ehsan

Conditioning stochastic simulations are very important in many geostatistical applications that call for the introduction of nonlinear and multiple-point data in reservoir modeling. Here, a new methodology is proposed for the incorporation of different data types into multiple-point statistics (MPS) simulation frameworks. Unlike the previous techniques that call for an approximate forward model (filter) for integration of secondary data into geologically constructed models, the proposed approach develops an intermediate space where all the primary and secondary data are easily mapped onto. Definition of the intermediate space, as may be achieved via application of artificial intelligence tools like neural networks andmore » fuzzy inference systems, eliminates the need for using filters as in previous techniques. The applicability of the proposed approach in conditioning MPS simulations to static and geologic data is verified by modeling a real example of discrete fracture networks using conventional well-log data. The training patterns are well reproduced in the realizations, while the model is also consistent with the map of secondary data.« less
Real-time management of a multipurpose water reservoir with a heteroscedastic inflow model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pianosi, F.; Soncini-Sessa, R.

2009-10-01

Stochastic dynamic programming has been extensively used as a method for designing optimal regulation policies for water reservoirs. However, the potential of this method is dramatically reduced by its computational burden, which often forces to introduce strong approximations in the model of the system, especially in the description of the reservoir inflow. In this paper, an approach to partially remedy this problem is proposed and applied to a real world case study. It foresees solving the management problem on-line, using a reduced model of the system and the inflow forecast provided by a dynamic model. By doing so, all the hydrometeorological information that is available in real-time is fully exploited. The model here proposed for the inflow forecasting is a nonlinear, heteroscedastic model that provides both the expected value and the standard deviation of the inflow through dynamic relations. The effectiveness of such model for the purpose of the reservoir regulation is evaluated through simulation and comparison with the results provided by conventional homoscedastic inflow models.
Modeling of carbonate reservoir variable secondary pore space based on CT images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nie, X.; Nie, S.; Zhang, J.; Zhang, C.; Zhang, Z.

2017-12-01

Digital core technology has brought convenience to us, and X-ray CT scanning is one of the most common way to obtain 3D digital cores. However, it can only provide the original information of the only samples being scanned, and we can't modify the porosity of the scanned cores. For numerical rock physical simulations, a series of cores with variable porosities are needed to determine the relationship between the physical properties and porosity. In carbonate rocks, the secondary pore space including dissolution pores, caves and natural fractures is the key reservoir space, which makes the study of carbonate secondary porosity very important. To achieve the variation of porosities in one rock sample, based on CT scanned digital cores, according to the physical and chemical properties of carbonate rocks, several mathematical methods are chosen to simulate the variation of secondary pore space. We use the erosion and dilation operations of mathematical morphology method to simulate the pore space changes of dissolution pores and caves. We also use the Fractional Brownian Motion model to generate natural fractures with different widths and angles in digital cores to simulate fractured carbonate rocks. The morphological opening-and-closing operations in mathematical morphology method are used to simulate distribution of fluid in the pore space. The established 3D digital core models with different secondary porosities and water saturation status can be used in the study of the physical property numerical simulations of carbonate reservoir rocks.
Water injection into vapor- and liquid-dominated reservoirs: Modeling of heat transfer and mass transport

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pruess, K.; Oldenburg, C.; Moridis, G.

1997-12-31

This paper summarizes recent advances in methods for simulating water and tracer injection, and presents illustrative applications to liquid- and vapor-dominated geothermal reservoirs. High-resolution simulations of water injection into heterogeneous, vertical fractures in superheated vapor zones were performed. Injected water was found to move in dendritic patterns, and to experience stronger lateral flow effects than predicted from homogeneous medium models. Higher-order differencing methods were applied to modeling water and tracer injection into liquid-dominated systems. Conventional upstream weighting techniques were shown to be adequate for predicting the migration of thermal fronts, while higher-order methods give far better accuracy for tracer transport.more » A new fluid property module for the TOUGH2 simulator is described which allows a more accurate description of geofluids, and includes mineral dissolution and precipitation effects with associated porosity and permeability change. Comparisons between numerical simulation predictions and data for laboratory and field injection experiments are summarized. Enhanced simulation capabilities include a new linear solver package for TOUGH2, and inverse modeling techniques for automatic history matching and optimization.« less
Integrating a reservoir regulation scheme into a spatially distributed hydrological model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhao, Gang; Gao, Huilin; Naz, Bibi S.

2016-12-01

During the past several decades, numerous reservoirs have been built across the world for a variety of purposes such as flood control, irrigation, municipal/industrial water supplies, and hydropower generation. Consequently, natural streamflow timing and magnitude have been altered significantly by reservoir operations. In addition, the hydrological cycle can be modified by land use/land cover and climate changes. To understand the fine scale feedback between hydrological processes and water management decisions, a distributed hydrological model embedded with a reservoir component is of desire. In this study, a multi-purpose reservoir module with predefined complex operational rules was integrated into the Distributed Hydrologymore » Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM). Conditional operating rules, which are designed to reduce flood risk and enhance water supply reliability, were adopted in this module. The performance of the integrated model was tested over the upper Brazos River Basin in Texas, where two U.S. Army Corps of Engineers reservoirs, Lake Whitney and Aquilla Lake, are located. The integrated DHSVM model was calibrated and validated using observed reservoir inflow, outflow, and storage data. The error statistics were summarized for both reservoirs on a daily, weekly, and monthly basis. Using the weekly reservoir storage for Lake Whitney as an example, the coefficients of determination (R2) and the Nash-Sutcliff Efficiency (NSE) are 0.85 and 0.75, respectively. These results suggest that this reservoir module has promise for use in sub-monthly hydrological simulations. Enabled with the new reservoir component, the DHSVM model provides a platform to support adaptive water resources management under the impacts of evolving anthropogenic activities and substantial environmental changes.« less
A numerical study of EGS heat extraction process based on a thermal non-equilibrium model for heat transfer in subsurface porous heat reservoir

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Jiliang; Jiang, Fangming

2016-02-01

With a previously developed numerical model, we perform a detailed study of the heat extraction process in enhanced or engineered geothermal system (EGS). This model takes the EGS subsurface heat reservoir as an equivalent porous medium while it considers local thermal non-equilibrium between the rock matrix and the fluid flowing in the fractured rock mass. The application of local thermal non-equilibrium model highlights the temperature-difference heat exchange process occurring in EGS reservoirs, enabling a better understanding of the involved heat extraction process. The simulation results unravel the mechanism of preferential flow or short-circuit flow forming in homogeneously fractured reservoirs of different permeability values. EGS performance, e.g. production temperature and lifetime, is found to be tightly related to the flow pattern in the reservoir. Thermal compensation from rocks surrounding the reservoir contributes little heat to the heat transmission fluid if the operation time of an EGS is shorter than 15 years. We find as well the local thermal equilibrium model generally overestimates EGS performance and for an EGS with better heat exchange conditions in the heat reservoir, the heat extraction process acts more like the local thermal equilibrium process.
Volume sharing of reservoir water

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dudley, Norman J.

1988-05-01

Previous models optimize short-, intermediate-, and long-run irrigation decision making in a simplified river valley system characterized by highly variable water supplies and demands for a single decision maker controlling both reservoir releases and farm water use. A major problem in relaxing the assumption of one decision maker is communicating the stochastic nature of supplies and demands between reservoir and farm managers. In this paper, an optimizing model is used to develop release rules for reservoir management when all users share equally in releases, and computer simulation is used to generate an historical time sequence of announced releases. These announced releases become a state variable in a farm management model which optimizes farm area-to-irrigate decisions through time. Such modeling envisages the use of growing area climatic data by the reservoir authority to gauge water demand and the transfer of water supply data from reservoir to farm managers via computer data files. Alternative model forms, including allocating water on a priority basis, are discussed briefly. Results show lower mean aggregate farm income and lower variance of aggregate farm income than in the single decision-maker case. This short-run economic efficiency loss coupled with likely long-run economic efficiency losses due to the attenuated nature of property rights indicates the need for quite different ways of integrating reservoir and farm management.
Numerical solution of fractured horizontal wells in shale gas reservoirs considering multiple transport mechanisms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Yu-long; Tang, Xu-chuan; Zhang, Lie-hui; Tang, Hong-ming; Tao, Zheng-Wu

2018-06-01

The multiscale pore size and specific gas storage mechanism in organic-rich shale gas reservoirs make gas transport in such reservoirs complicated. Therefore, a model that fully incorporates all transport mechanisms and employs an accurate numerical method is urgently needed to simulate the gas production process. In this paper, a unified model of apparent permeability was first developed, which took into account multiple influential factors including slip flow, Knudsen diffusion (KD), surface diffusion, effects of the adsorbed layer, permeability stress sensitivity, and ad-/desorption phenomena. Subsequently, a comprehensive mathematical model, which included the model of apparent permeability, was derived to describe gas production behaviors. Thereafter, on the basis of unstructured perpendicular bisection grids and finite volume method, a fully implicit numerical simulator was developed using Matlab software. The validation and application of the new model were confirmed using a field case reported in the literature. Finally, the impacts of related influencing factors on gas production were analyzed. The results showed that KD resulted in a negligible impact on gas production in the proposed model. The smaller the pore size was, the more obvious the effects of the adsorbed layer on the well production rate would be. Permeability stress sensitivity had a slight effect on well cumulative production in shale gas reservoirs. Adsorbed gas made a major contribution to the later flow period of the well; the greater the adsorbed gas content, the greater the well production rate would be. This paper can improve the understanding of gas production in shale gas reservoirs for petroleum engineers.
Reinjected water return at Miravalles geothermal reservoir, Costa Rica: Numerical modelling and observations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Parini, Mauro; Acuna, Jorge A.; Laudiano, Michele

1996-01-24

The first 55 MW power plant at Miravalles started operation in March, 1994. During the first few months of production, a gradual increase in chloride content was observed in some production wells. The cause was assumed to be a rapid return of injectate from two in.jection wells located fairly near to the main production area. A tracer test was performed and showed a relatively rapid breakthrough, confirming the assumption made. Numerical modeling was then carried out to try to reproduce the observed behavior. The reservoir was modelled with an idealized three-dimensional network of fractures embedded into a low permeability matrix.more » The “two waters” feature of TOUGH2 simulator was used. The numerical simulation showed good agreement with observations. A “porous medium” model with equivalent hydraulic characteristics was unable to reproduce the observations. The fractured model, when applied to investigate the mid and long term expected behavior, indicated a reservoir cooling risk associated to the present injection scheme. Work is currently underway to modify this scheme.« less
Reinjected water return at Miravalles geothermal reservoir, Costa Rica: Numerical modelling and observations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Parini, M.; Laudiano, M.; Acuna, J.A.

1996-12-31

The first 55 MW power plant at Miravalles started operation in March, 1994. During the first few months of production, a gradual increase in chloride content was observed in some production wells. The cause was assumed to be a rapid return of injectate from two injection wells located fairly near to the main production area. A tracer test was performed and showed a relatively rapid breakthrough, confirming the assumption made. Numerical modeling was then carried out to try to reproduce the observed behavior. The reservoir was modelled with an idealized three-dimensional network of fractures embedded into a low permeability matrix.more » The {open_quotes}two waters{close_quotes} feature of TOUGH2 simulator was used. The numerical simulation showed good agreement with observations. A {open_quotes}porous medium{close_quotes} model with equivalent hydraulic characteristics was unable to reproduce the observations. The fractured model, when applied to investigate the mid and long term expected behavior, indicated a reservoir cooling risk associated to the present injection scheme. Work is currently underway to modify this scheme.« less
Optimizing Reservoir Operation to Adapt to the Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Madadgar, S.; Jung, I.; Moradkhani, H.

2010-12-01

Climate change and upcoming variation in flood timing necessitates the adaptation of current rule curves developed for operation of water reservoirs as to reduce the potential damage from either flood or draught events. This study attempts to optimize the current rule curves of Cougar Dam on McKenzie River in Oregon addressing some possible climate conditions in 21th century. The objective is to minimize the failure of operation to meet either designated demands or flood limit at a downstream checkpoint. A simulation/optimization model including the standard operation policy and a global optimization method, tunes the current rule curve upon 8 GCMs and 2 greenhouse gases emission scenarios. The Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) is used as the hydrology model to project the streamflow for the period of 2000-2100 using downscaled precipitation and temperature forcing from 8 GCMs and two emission scenarios. An ensemble of rule curves, each associated with an individual scenario, is obtained by optimizing the reservoir operation. The simulation of reservoir operation, for all the scenarios and the expected value of the ensemble, is conducted and performance assessment using statistical indices including reliability, resilience, vulnerability and sustainability is made.
Development of a decision support system for small reservoir irrigation systems in rainfed and drought prone areas.

PubMed

Balderama, Orlando F

2010-01-01

An integrated computer program called Cropping System and Water Management Model (CSWM) with a three-step feature (expert system-simulation-optimization) was developed to address a range of decision support for rainfed farming, i.e. crop selection, scheduling and optimisation. The system was used for agricultural planning with emphasis on sustainable agriculture in the rainfed areas through the use of small farm reservoirs for increased production and resource conservation and management. The application of the model was carried out using crop, soil, and climate and water resource data from the Philippines. Primarily, four sets of data representing the different rainfall classification of the country were collected, analysed, and used as input in the model. Simulations were also done on date of planting, probabilities of wet and dry period and with various capacities of the water reservoir used for supplemental irrigation. Through the analysis, useful information was obtained to determine suitable crops in the region, cropping schedule and pattern appropriate to the specific climate conditions. In addition, optimisation of the use of the land and water resources can be achieved in areas partly irrigated by small reservoirs.
Hydraulic Characteristics of the Lower Snake River during Periods of Juvenile Fall Chinook Salmon Migration, 2002-2006 Final Report.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cook, C.; Dibrani, B.; Richmond, M.

2006-01-01

This report documents a four-year study to assess hydraulic conditions in the lower Snake River. The work was conducted for the Bonneville Power Administration, U.S. Department of Energy, by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. Cold water released from the Dworshak Reservoir hypolimnion during mid- to late-summer months cools the Clearwater River far below equilibrium temperature. The volume of released cold water augments the Clearwater River, and the combined total discharge is on the order of the Snake River discharge when the two rivers meet at their confluence near the upstream edge of Lower Granite Reservoir. With typical temperature differences betweenmore » the Clearwater and Snake rivers of 10 C or more during July and August, the density difference between the two rivers during summer flow augmentation periods is sufficient to stratify Lower Granite Reservoir as well as the other three reservoirs downstream. Because cooling of the river is desirable for migrating juvenile fall Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) during this same time period, the amount of mixing and cold water entrained into Lower Granite Reservoir's epilimnion at the Clearwater/Snake River confluence is of key biological importance. Data collected during this project indicates the three reservoirs downstream of Lower Granite also stratify as direct result of flow augmentation from Dworshak Reservoir. These four reservoirs are also heavily influenced by wind forcing at the water's surface and during periods of low river discharge often behave like a two-layer lake. During these periods of stratification, lower river discharge, and wind forcing, the water in the upper layer of the reservoir is held in place or moves slightly upstream. This upper layer is also exposed to surface heating and may warm up to temperatures close to equilibrium temperature. The thickness (depth) of this upper warm layer and its direction of travel may be of key biological importance to juvenile fall Chinook salmon. This report describes field data collection, modeling, and analysis of hydrodynamic and temperature conditions in the Lower Granite Reservoir during the summer flow augmentation periods of 2002, 2003, and 2004. Although temperature, and hence density, differences during flow augmentation periods between the Clearwater and Snake rivers were approximately equal (7-12 C) for all four years, the discharge ratio varied which resulted in significant differences in entrainment of cooler Clearwater River water into the Lower Granite Reservoir epilimnion. However, as a direct result of system management, Lower Granite Dam tailrace temperatures were maintained near 20 C during all years. Primary differences in the other three lower Snake River reservoirs were therefore a result of meteorological conditions and dam operations, which produced variations in wind setup and surface heating. Circulation patterns in all four lower Snake River reservoirs were numerically simulated for periods of 2002, 2003, 2004, and 2005 using CE-QUAL-W2. Simulation results show that these models are capable of matching diurnal and long-term temperature and velocity changes in the reservoirs. In addition, the confluence zone of the Clearwater and Snake rivers was modeled using the three-dimensional non-hydrostatic model Flow3D. Once calibrated and validated, the reservoir models were used to investigate downstream impacts of alternative reservoir operation schemes, such as increasing or decreasing the ratio of Clearwater to Snake river discharge. Simulation results were linked with the particle tracking model FINS to develop reservoir-integrated metrics that varied due to these alternative operation schemes. Findings indicate that significant alterations in water temperature throughout the lower Snake River are possible by altering hypolimnetic discharges from Dworshak Reservoir, which may also impact the behavior of migrating juvenile fall Chinook salmon during periods of flow augmentation.« less

MUFITS Code for Modeling Geological Storage of Carbon Dioxide at Sub- and Supercritical Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Afanasyev, A.

2012-12-01

Two-phase models are widely used for simulation of CO2 storage in saline aquifers. These models support gaseous phase mainly saturated with CO2 and liquid phase mainly saturated with H2O (e.g. TOUGH2 code). The models can be applied to analysis of CO2 storage only in relatively deeply-buried reservoirs where pressure exceeds CO2 critical pressure. At these supercritical reservoir conditions only one supercritical CO2-rich phase appears in aquifer due to CO2 injection. In shallow aquifers where reservoir pressure is less than the critical pressure CO2 can split in two different liquid-like and gas-like phases (e.g. Spycher et al., 2003). Thus a region of three-phase flow of water, liquid and gaseous CO2 can appear near the CO2 injection point. Today there is no widely used and generally accepted numerical model capable of the three-phase flows with two CO2-rich phases. In this work we propose a new hydrodynamic simulator MUFITS (Multiphase Filtration Transport Simulator) for multiphase compositional modeling of CO2-H2O mixture flows in porous media at conditions of interest for carbon sequestration. The simulator is effective both for supercritical flows in a wide range of pressure and temperature and for subcritical three-phase flows of water, liquid CO2 and gaseous CO2 in shallow reservoirs. The distinctive feature of the proposed code lies in the methodology for mixture properties determination. Transport equations and Darcy correlation are solved together with calculation of the entropy maximum that is reached in thermodynamic equilibrium and determines the mixture composition. To define and solve the problem only one function - mixture thermodynamic potential - is required. The potential is determined using a three-parametric generalization of Peng-Robinson equation of state fitted to experimental data (Todheide, Takenouchi, Altunin etc.). We apply MUFITS to simple 1D and 2D test problems of CO2 injection in shallow reservoirs subjected to phase changes between liquid and gaseous CO2. We consider CO2 injection into highly heterogeneous the 10th SPE reservoir. We provide analysis of physical phenomena that have control temperature distribution in the reservoir. The distribution is non-monotonic with regions of high and low temperature. The main phenomena responsible for considerable temperature decline around CO2 injection point is the liquid CO2 evaporation process. We also apply the code to real-scale 3D simulations of CO2 geological storage at supercritical conditions in Sleipner field and Johansen formation (Fig). The work is supported financially by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (12-01-31117) and grant for leading scientific schools (NSh 1303.2012.1). CO2 phase saturation in Johansen formation after 50 years of injection and 1000 years of rest period
Simulation of Runoff and Reservoir Inflow for Use in a Flood-Analysis Model for the Delaware River, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and New York, 2004-2006

USGS Publications Warehouse

Goode, Daniel J.; Koerkle, Edward H.; Hoffman, Scott A.; Regan, R. Steve; Hay, Lauren E.; Markstrom, Steven L.

2010-01-01

A model was developed to simulate inflow to reservoirs and watershed runoff to streams during three high-flow events between September 2004 and June 2006 for the main-stem subbasin of the Delaware River draining to Trenton, N.J. The model software is a modified version of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), a modular, physically based, distributed-parameter modeling system developed to evaluate the impacts of various combinations of precipitation, climate, and land use on surface-water runoff and general basin hydrology. The PRMS model simulates time periods associated with main-stem flooding that occurred in September 2004, April 2005, and June 2006 and uses both daily and hourly time steps. Output from the PRMS model was formatted for use as inflows to a separately documented reservoir and riverrouting model, the HEC-ResSim model, developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Center to evaluate flooding. The models were integrated through a graphical user interface. The study area is the 6,780 square-mile watershed of the Delaware River in the states of Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and New York that drains to Trenton, N.J. A geospatial database was created for use with a geographic information system to assist model discretization, determine land-surface characterization, and estimate model parameters. The USGS National Elevation Dataset at 100-meter resolution, a Digital Elevation Model (DEM), was used for model discretization into streams and hydrologic response units. In addition, geospatial processing was used to estimate initial model parameters from the DEM and other data layers, including land use. The model discretization represents the study area using 869 hydrologic response units and 452 stream segments. The model climate data for point stations were obtained from multiple sources. These sources included daily data for 22 National Weather Service (NWS) Cooperative Climate Station network stations, hourly data for 15 stations from the National Climatic Data Center, hourly data for 1 station from the NWS Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center records, and daily and hourly data for 7 stations operated by the New York City Department of Environmental Protection. The NWS Multisensor Precipitation Estimate data set for 2001-2007 was used for computing daily precipitation for the model and for computing hourly precipitation for storm simulation periods. Calibration of the PRMS model included regression and optimization algorithms, as well as manual adjustments of model parameters. The general goal of the calibration procedure was to minimize the difference between discharge measured at USGS streamgages and the corresponding discharge simulated by the model. Daily streamflow data from 35 USGS streamgages were used in model calibration. The streamflow data represent areas draining from 20.2 to 6,780 square miles. The PRMS model simulates reservoir inflow and watershed runoff for use as input into HECResSim for the purpose of evaluating and comparing the effects of different watershed conditions on main-stem flooding in the Delaware River watershed draining to Trenton, N.J. The PRMS model is useful as a planning tool to simulate the effects of land-use changes and different antecedent conditions on local runoff and reservoir inflow and, as input to the HEC-ResSim model, on flood flows in the main stem of the Delaware River.
On a model simulating lack of hydraulic connection between a man-made reservoir and the volume of poroelastic rock hosting the focus of a post-impoundment earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chander, Ramesh; Tomar, S. K.

2016-12-01

The idea that a direct hydraulic connection between a man-made reservoir and the foci of post-impoundment earthquakes may not exist at all sites is eminently credible on geological grounds. Our aim is to provide a simple earth model and related theory for use during investigations of earthquakes near new man-made reservoirs. We consider a uniform circular reservoir which rests on the top surface of a no-hydraulic-connection earth model (NHCEM). The model comprises a top elastic (E) layer, an intermediate poroelastic (P) layer, and a bottom elastic half space. The focus of a potential earthquake in the P layer is located directly under the reservoir. The E layer disrupts the hydraulic connection between the reservoir and the focus. Depth of water in the reservoir varies as H ' + hcos( ω t). Expressions for reservoir-induced stresses and pore pressure in different layers of the NHCEM are obtained by solving the boundary-value problem invoking full coupling between mean normal stress and pore pressure in the P layer. As an application of the derived mathematical results, we have examined and found that earthquakes on 60∘ normal faults may occur in the P-layer of a selected NHCEM at epochs of low reservoir level if the reservoir lies mostly in the footwall of the fault. The exercise was motivated by observations of such earthquakes under the man-made Lake Mead after it was impounded.
Value of Information Analysis for Time-lapse Seismic Data by Simulation-Regression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dutta, G.; Mukerji, T.; Eidsvik, J.

2016-12-01

A novel method to estimate the Value of Information (VOI) of time-lapse seismic data in the context of reservoir development is proposed. VOI is a decision analytic metric quantifying the incremental value that would be created by collecting information prior to making a decision under uncertainty. The VOI has to be computed before collecting the information and can be used to justify its collection. Previous work on estimating the VOI of geophysical data has involved explicit approximation of the posterior distribution of reservoir properties given the data and then evaluating the prospect values for that posterior distribution of reservoir properties. Here, we propose to directly estimate the prospect values given the data by building a statistical relationship between them using regression. Various regression techniques such as Partial Least Squares Regression (PLSR), Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) and k-Nearest Neighbors (k-NN) are used to estimate the VOI, and the results compared. For a univariate Gaussian case, the VOI obtained from simulation-regression has been shown to be close to the analytical solution. Estimating VOI by simulation-regression is much less computationally expensive since the posterior distribution of reservoir properties given each possible dataset need not be modeled and the prospect values need not be evaluated for each such posterior distribution of reservoir properties. This method is flexible, since it does not require rigid model specification of posterior but rather fits conditional expectations non-parametrically from samples of values and data.
An Integrated Approach to Characterizing Bypassed Oil in Heterogeneous and Fractured Reservoirs Using Partitioning Tracers

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Akhil Datta-Gupta

2006-12-31

We explore the use of efficient streamline-based simulation approaches for modeling partitioning interwell tracer tests in hydrocarbon reservoirs. Specifically, we utilize the unique features of streamline models to develop an efficient approach for interpretation and history matching of field tracer response. A critical aspect here is the underdetermined and highly ill-posed nature of the associated inverse problems. We have investigated the relative merits of the traditional history matching ('amplitude inversion') and a novel travel time inversion in terms of robustness of the method and convergence behavior of the solution. We show that the traditional amplitude inversion is orders of magnitudemore » more non-linear and the solution here is likely to get trapped in local minimum, leading to inadequate history match. The proposed travel time inversion is shown to be extremely efficient and robust for practical field applications. The streamline approach is generalized to model water injection in naturally fractured reservoirs through the use of a dual media approach. The fractures and matrix are treated as separate continua that are connected through a transfer function, as in conventional finite difference simulators for modeling fractured systems. A detailed comparison with a commercial finite difference simulator shows very good agreement. Furthermore, an examination of the scaling behavior of the computation time indicates that the streamline approach is likely to result in significant savings for large-scale field applications. We also propose a novel approach to history matching finite-difference models that combines the advantage of the streamline models with the versatility of finite-difference simulation. In our approach, we utilize the streamline-derived sensitivities to facilitate history matching during finite-difference simulation. The use of finite-difference model allows us to account for detailed process physics and compressibility effects. The approach is very fast and avoids much of the subjective judgments and time-consuming trial-and-errors associated with manual history matching. We demonstrate the power and utility of our approach using a synthetic example and two field examples. We have also explored the use of a finite difference reservoir simulator, UTCHEM, for field-scale design and optimization of partitioning interwell tracer tests. The finite-difference model allows us to include detailed physics associated with reactive tracer transport, particularly those related with transverse and cross-streamline mechanisms. We have investigated the potential use of downhole tracer samplers and also the use of natural tracers for the design of partitioning tracer tests. Finally, we discuss several alternative ways of using partitioning interwell tracer tests (PITTs) in oil fields for the calculation of oil saturation, swept pore volume and sweep efficiency, and assess the accuracy of such tests under a variety of reservoir conditions.« less
Towards an integrated model of floodplain hydrology representing feedbacks and anthropogenic effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andreadis, K.; Schumann, G.; Voisin, N.; O'Loughlin, F.; Tesfa, T. K.; Bates, P.

2017-12-01

The exchange of water between hillslopes, river channels and floodplain can be quite complex and the difficulty in capturing the mechanisms behind it is exacerbated by the impact of human activities such as irrigation and reservoir operations. Although there has been a vast body of work on modeling hydrological processes, most of the resulting models have been limited with regards to aspects of the coupled human-natural system. For example, hydrologic models that represent processes such as evapotranspiration, infiltration, interception and groundwater dynamics often neglect anthropogenic effects or do not adequately represent the inherently two-dimensional floodplain flow. We present an integrated modeling framework that is comprised of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model, the LISFLOOD-FP hydrodynamic model, and the Water resources Management (WM) model. The VIC model solves the energy and water balance over a gridded domain and simulates a number of hydrologic features such as snow, frozen soils, lakes and wetlands, while also representing irrigation demand from cropland areas. LISFLOOD-FP solves an approximation of the Saint-Venant equations to efficiently simulate flow in river channels and the floodplain. The implementation of WM accommodates a variety of operating rules in reservoirs and withdrawals due to consumptive demands, allowing the successful simulation of regulated flow. The models are coupled so as to allow feedbacks between their corresponding processes, therefore providing the ability to test different hypotheses about the floodplain hydrology of large-scale basins. We test this integrated framework over the Zambezi River basin by simulating its hydrology from 2000-2010, and evaluate the results against remotely sensed observations. Finally, we examine the sensitivity of streamflow and water inundation to changes in reservoir operations, precipitation and temperature.
Dynamic Simulation of a Helium Liquefier

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maekawa, R.; Ooba, K.; Nobutoki, M.; Mito, T.

2004-06-01

Dynamic behavior of a helium liquefier has been studied in detail with a Cryogenic Process REal-time SimulaTor (C-PREST) at the National Institute for Fusion Science (NIFS). The C-PREST is being developed to integrate large-scale helium cryogenic plant design, operation and maintenance for optimum process establishment. As a first step of simulations of cooldown to 4.5 K with the helium liquefier model is conducted, which provides a plant-process validation platform. The helium liquefier consists of seven heat exchangers, a liquid-nitrogen (LN2) precooler, two expansion turbines and a liquid-helium (LHe) reservoir. Process simulations are fulfilled with sequence programs, which were implemented with C-PREST based on an existing liquefier operation. The interactions of a JT valve, a JT-bypass valve and a reservoir-return valve have been dynamically simulated. The paper discusses various aspects of refrigeration process simulation, including its difficulties such as a balance between complexity of the adopted models and CPU time.
The thermochemical structure and evolution of Earth's mantle: constraints and numerical models.

PubMed

Tackley, Paul J; Xie, Shunxing

2002-11-15

Geochemical observations place several constraints on geophysical processes in the mantle, including a requirement to maintain several distinct reservoirs. Geophysical constraints limit plausible physical locations of these reservoirs to a thin basal layer, isolated deep 'piles' of material under large-scale mantle upwellings, high-viscosity blobs/plums or thin strips throughout the mantle, or some combination of these. A numerical model capable of simulating the thermochemical evolution of the mantle is introduced. Preliminary simulations are more differentiated than Earth but display some of the proposed thermochemical processes, including the generation of a high-mu mantle reservoir by recycling of crust, and the generation of a high-(3)He/(4)He reservoir by recycling of residuum, although the resulting high-(3)He/(4)He material tends to aggregate near the top, where mid-ocean-ridge melting should sample it. If primitive material exists as a dense basal layer, it must be much denser than subducted crust in order to retain its primitive (e.g. high-(3)He) signature. Much progress is expected in the near future.
Managing Tradeoffs between Hydropower and the Environment in the Mekong River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loucks, Daniel P.; Wild, Thomas B.

2015-04-01

Hydropower dams are being designed and constructed at a rapid pace in the Mekong/Lancang River basin in Southeast Asia. These reservoirs are expected to trap significant amounts sediment, decreasing much of the river's capability to transport nutrients and maintain its geomorphology and habitats. We apply a simulation model for identifying and evaluating alternative dam siting, design and operating policy (SDO) options that could help maintain more natural sediment regimes downstream of dams and for evaluating the effect of these sediment-focused SDO strategies on hydropower production and reliability. We apply this approach to the planned reservoirs that would prevent a significant source of sediment from reaching critical Mekong ecosystems such as Cambodia's Tonle Sap Lake and the Mekong delta in Vietnam. Model results suggest that various SDO modifications could increase sediment discharge from this site by 300-450% compared to current plans, but a 30-55% loss in short-term annual energy production depending on various configurations of upstream reservoirs. Simulation results also suggest that sediment management-focused reservoir operating policies could cause ecological damage if they are not properly implemented.
Final Report: Optimal Model Complexity in Geological Carbon Sequestration: A Response Surface Uncertainty Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Ye

The critical component of a risk assessment study in evaluating GCS is an analysis of uncertainty in CO2 modeling. In such analyses, direct numerical simulation of CO2 flow and leakage requires many time-consuming model runs. Alternatively, analytical methods have been developed which allow fast and efficient estimation of CO2 storage and leakage, although restrictive assumptions on formation rock and fluid properties are employed. In this study, an intermediate approach is proposed based on the Design of Experiment and Response Surface methodology, which consists of using a limited number of numerical simulations to estimate a prediction outcome as a combination ofmore » the most influential uncertain site properties. The methodology can be implemented within a Monte Carlo framework to efficiently assess parameter and prediction uncertainty while honoring the accuracy of numerical simulations. The choice of the uncertain properties is flexible and can include geologic parameters that influence reservoir heterogeneity, engineering parameters that influence gas trapping and migration, and reactive parameters that influence the extent of fluid/rock reactions. The method was tested and verified on modeling long-term CO2 flow, non-isothermal heat transport, and CO2 dissolution storage by coupling two-phase flow with explicit miscibility calculation using an accurate equation of state that gives rise to convective mixing of formation brine variably saturated with CO2. All simulations were performed using three-dimensional high-resolution models including a target deep saline aquifer, overlying caprock, and a shallow aquifer. To evaluate the uncertainty in representing reservoir permeability, sediment hierarchy of a heterogeneous digital stratigraphy was mapped to create multiple irregularly shape stratigraphic models of decreasing geologic resolutions: heterogeneous (reference), lithofacies, depositional environment, and a (homogeneous) geologic formation. To ensure model equivalency, all the stratigraphic models were successfully upscaled from the reference heterogeneous model for bulk flow and transport predictions (Zhang & Zhang, 2015). GCS simulation was then simulated with all models, yielding insights into the level of parameterization complexity that is needed for the accurate simulation of reservoir pore pressure, CO2 storage, leakage, footprint, and dissolution over both short (i.e., injection) and longer (monitoring) time scales. Important uncertainty parameters that impact these key performance metrics were identified for the stratigraphic models as well as for the heterogeneous model, leading to the development of reduced/simplified models at lower characterization cost that can be used for the reservoir uncertainty analysis. All the CO2 modeling was conducted using PFLOTRAN – a massively parallel, multiphase, multi-component, and reactive transport simulator developed by a multi-laboratory DOE/SciDAC (Scientific Discovery through Advanced Computing) project (Zhang et al., 2017, in review). Within the uncertainty analysis framework, increasing reservoir depth were investigated to explore its effect on the uncertainty outcomes and the potential for developing gravity-stable injection with increased storage security (Dai et al., 20126; Dai et al., 2017, in review). Finally, to accurately model CO2 fluid-rock reactions and resulting long-term storage as secondary carbonate minerals, a modified kinetic rate law for general mineral dissolution and precipitation was proposed and verified that is invariant to a scale transformation of the mineral formula weight. This new formulation will lead to more accurate assessment of mineral storage over geologic time scales (Lichtner, 2016).« less
Multiphysics simulation of a novel concept of MEMS-based solid propellant thruster for space propulsion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moríñigo, José A.; Hermida-Quesada, José

2011-12-01

This work analyzes a novel MEMS-based architecture of submillimeter size thruster for the propulsion of small spacecrafts, addressing its preliminary characterization of performance. The architecture of microthruster comprises a setup of miniaturized channels surrounding the solid-propellant reservoir filled up with a high-energetic polymer. These channels guide the hot gases from the combustion region towards the nozzle entrance located at the opposite side of the thruster. Numerical simulations of the transient response of the combustion gases and wafer heating in thruster firings have been conducted with FLUENT under a multiphysics modelling that fully couples the gas and solid parts involved. The approach includes the gas-wafer and gas-polymer thermal exchange, burnback of the polymer with a simplified non-reacting gas pyrolysis model at its front, and a slip-model inside the nozzle portion to incorporate the effect of gas-surface and rarefaction onto the gas expansion. Besides, accurate characterization of thruster operation requires the inclusion of the receding front of the polymer and heat transfer in the moving gas-solid interfaces. The study stresses the improvement attained in thermal management by the inclusion of lateral micro-channels in the device. In particular, the temperature maps reveal the significant dependence of the thermal loss on the instantaneous surface of the reservoir wall exposed to the heat flux of hot gases. Specifically, the simulations stress the benefit of implementing such a pattern of micro-channels connecting the exit of the combustion reservoir with the nozzle. The results prove that hot gases flowing along the micro-channels exert a sealing action upon the heat flux at the reservoir wall and partly mitigate the overall thermal loss at the inner-wall vicinity during the burnback. The analysis shows that propellant decomposition rate is accelerated due to surface preheating and it suggests that a delay of the flame extinction into the reservoir is possible. The simulated operation of the thruster concept shows encouraging performance.
Coupling of geochemical and multiphase flow processes for validation of the MUFITS reservoir simulator against TOUGHREACT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Lucia, Marco; Kempka, Thomas; Afanasyev, Andrey; Melnik, Oleg; Kühn, Michael

2016-04-01

Coupled reactive transport simulations, especially in heterogeneous settings considering multiphase flow, are extremely time consuming and suffer from significant numerical issues compared to purely hydrodynamic simulations. This represents a major hurdle in the assessment of geological subsurface utilization, since it constrains the practical application of reactive transport modelling to coarse spatial discretization or oversimplified geological settings. In order to overcome such limitations, De Lucia et al. [1] developed and validated a one-way coupling approach between geochemistry and hydrodynamics, which is particularly well suited for CO2 storage simulations, while being of general validity. In the present study, the models used for the validation of the one-way coupling approach introduced by De Lucia et al. (2015), and originally performed with the TOUGHREACT simulator, are transferred to and benchmarked against the multiphase reservoir simulator MUFITS [2]. The geological model is loosely inspired by an existing CO2 storage site. Its grid comprises 2,950 elements enclosed in a single layer, but reflecting a realistic three-dimensional anticline geometry. For the purpose of this comparison, homogeneous and heterogeneous scenarios in terms of porosity and permeability were investigated. In both cases, the results of the MUFITS simulator are in excellent agreement with those produced with the fully-coupled TOUGHREACT simulator, while profiting from significantly higher computational performance. This study demonstrates how a computationally efficient simulator such as MUFITS can be successfully included in a coupled process simulation framework, and also suggests ameliorations and specific strategies for the coupling of chemical processes with hydrodynamics and heat transport, aiming at tackling geoscientific problems beyond the storage of CO2. References [1] De Lucia, M., Kempka, T., and Kühn, M. A coupling alternative to reactive transport simulations for long-term prediction of chemical reactions in heterogeneous CO2 storage systems, Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 279-294, 2015, doi:10.5194/gmd-8-279-2015 [2] Afanasyev, A.A. Application of the reservoir simulator MUFITS for 3D modeling of CO2 storage in geological formations, Energy Procedia, 40, 365-374, 2013, doi:10.1016/j.egypro.2013.08.042
Exploring the effects of data quality, data worth, and redundancy of CO2 gas pressure and saturation data on reservoir characterization through PEST Inversion

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fang, Zhufeng; Hou, Zhangshuan; Lin, Guang

2014-04-01

This study examined the impacts of reservoir properties on CO2 migration after subsurface injection and evaluated the possibility of characterizing reservoir properties using CO2 monitoring data such as saturation distribution. The injection reservoir was assumed to be located 1400-1500 m below the ground surface such that CO2 remained in the supercritical state. The reservoir was assumed to contain layers with alternating conductive and resistive properties, which is analogous to actual geological formations such as the Mount Simon Sandstone unit. The CO2 injection simulation used a cylindrical grid setting in which the injection well was situated at the center of themore » domain, which extended up to 8000 m from the injection well. The CO2 migration was simulated using the PNNL-developed simulator STOMP-CO2e (the water-salt-CO2 module). We adopted a nonlinear parameter estimation and optimization modeling software package, PEST, for automated reservoir parameter estimation. We explored the effects of data quality, data worth, and data redundancy on the detectability of reservoir parameters using CO2 saturation monitoring data, by comparing PEST inversion results using data with different levels of noises, various numbers of monitoring wells and locations, and different data collection spacing and temporal sampling intervals. This study yielded insight into the use of CO2 saturation monitoring data for reservoir characterization and how to design the monitoring system to optimize data worth and reduce data redundancy.« less
Modelling CO2 emissions from water surface of a boreal hydroelectric reservoir.

PubMed

Wang, Weifeng; Roulet, Nigel T; Kim, Youngil; Strachan, Ian B; Del Giorgio, Paul; Prairie, Yves T; Tremblay, Alain

2018-01-15

To quantify CO 2 emissions from water surface of a reservoir that was shaped by flooding the boreal landscape, we developed a daily time-step reservoir biogeochemistry model. We calibrated the model using the measured concentrations of dissolved organic and inorganic carbon (C) in a young boreal hydroelectric reservoir, Eastmain-1 (EM-1), in northern Quebec, Canada. We validated the model against observed CO 2 fluxes from an eddy covariance tower in the middle of EM-1. The model predicted the variability of CO 2 emissions reasonably well compared to the observations (root mean square error: 0.4-1.3gCm -2 day -1 , revised Willmott index: 0.16-0.55). In particular, we demonstrated that the annual reservoir surface effluxes were initially high, steeply declined in the first three years, and then steadily decreased to ~115gCm -2 yr -1 with increasing reservoir age over the estimated "engineering" reservoir lifetime (i.e., 100years). Sensitivity analyses revealed that increasing air temperature stimulated CO 2 emissions by enhancing CO 2 production in the water column and sediment, and extending the duration of open water period over which emissions occur. Increasing the amount of terrestrial organic C flooded can enhance benthic CO 2 fluxes and CO 2 emissions from the reservoir water surface, but the effects were not significant over the simulation period. The model is useful for the understanding of the mechanism of C dynamics in reservoirs and could be used to assist the hydro-power industry and others interested in the role of boreal hydroelectric reservoirs as sources of greenhouse gas emissions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
The use of simple inflow- and storage-based heuristics equations to represent reservoir behavior in California for investigating human impacts on the water cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Solander, K.; David, C. H.; Reager, J. T.; Famiglietti, J. S.

2013-12-01

The ability to reasonably replicate reservoir behavior in terms of storage and outflow is important for studying the potential human impacts on the terrestrial water cycle. Developing a simple method for this purpose could facilitate subsequent integration in a land surface or global climate model. This study attempts to simulate monthly reservoir outflow and storage using a simple, temporally-varying set of heuristics equations with input consisting of in situ records of reservoir inflow and storage. Equations of increasing complexity relative to the number of parameters involved were tested. Only two parameters were employed in the final equations used to predict outflow and storage in an attempt to best mimic seasonal reservoir behavior while still preserving model parsimony. California reservoirs were selected for model development due to the high level of data availability and intensity of water resource management in this region relative to other areas. Calibration was achieved using observations from eight major reservoirs representing approximately 41% of the 107 largest reservoirs in the state. Parameter optimization was accomplished using the minimum RMSE between observed and modeled storage and outflow as the main objective function. Initial results obtained for a multi-reservoir average of the correlation coefficient between observed and modeled storage (resp. outflow) is of 0.78 (resp. 0.75). These results combined with the simplicity of the equations being used show promise for integration into a land surface or a global climate model. This would be invaluable for evaluations of reservoir management impacts on the flow regime and associated ecosystems as well as on the climate at both regional and global scales.
Validating predictions of evolving porosity and permeability in carbonate reservoir rocks exposed to CO2-brine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, M. M.; Hao, Y.; Carroll, S.

2017-12-01

Improving our ability to better forecast the extent and impact of changes in porosity and permeability due to CO2-brine-carbonate reservoir interactions should lower uncertainty in long-term geologic CO2 storage capacity estimates. We have developed a continuum-scale reactive transport model that simulates spatial and temporal changes to porosity, permeability, mineralogy, and fluid composition within carbonate rocks exposed to CO2 and brine at storage reservoir conditions. The model relies on two primary parameters to simulate brine-CO2-carbonate mineral reaction: kinetic rate constant(s), kmineral, for carbonate dissolution; and an exponential parameter, n, relating porosity change to resulting permeability. Experimental data collected from fifteen core-flooding experiments conducted on samples from the Weyburn (Saskatchewan, Canada) and Arbuckle (Kansas, USA) carbonate reservoirs were used to calibrate the reactive-transport model and constrain the useful range of k and n values. Here we present the results of our current efforts to validate this model and the use of these parameter values, by comparing predictions of extent and location of dissolution and the evolution of fluid permeability against our results from new core-flood experiments conducted on samples from the Duperow Formation (Montana, USA). Agreement between model predictions and experimental data increase our confidence that these parameter ranges need not be considered site-specific but may be applied (within reason) at various locations and reservoirs. This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344.
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ernest A. Mancini

The University of Alabama, in cooperation with Texas A&M University, McGill University, Longleaf Energy Group, Strago Petroleum Corporation, and Paramount Petroleum Company, has undertaken an integrated, interdisciplinary geoscientific and engineering research project. The project is designed to characterize and model reservoir architecture, pore systems and rock-fluid interactions at the pore to field scale in Upper Jurassic Smackover reef and carbonate shoal reservoirs associated with varying degrees of relief on pre-Mesozoic basement paleohighs in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. The project effort includes the prediction of fluid flow in carbonate reservoirs through reservoir simulation modeling which utilizes geologic reservoir characterization andmore » modeling and the prediction of carbonate reservoir architecture, heterogeneity and quality through seismic imaging. The primary goal of the project is to increase the profitability, producibility and efficiency of recovery of oil from existing and undiscovered Upper Jurassic fields characterized by reef and carbonate shoals associated with pre-Mesozoic basement paleohighs. Geoscientific reservoir property, geophysical seismic attribute, petrophysical property, and engineering property characterization has shown that reef (thrombolite) and shoal reservoir lithofacies developed on the flanks of high-relief crystalline basement paleohighs (Vocation Field example) and on the crest and flanks of low-relief crystalline basement paleohighs (Appleton Field example). The reef thrombolite lithofacies have higher reservoir quality than the shoal lithofacies due to overall higher permeabilities and greater interconnectivity. Thrombolite dolostone flow units, which are dominated by dolomite intercrystalline and vuggy pores, are characterized by a pore system comprised of a higher percentage of large-sized pores and larger pore throats. Rock-fluid interactions (diagenesis) studies have shown that although the primary control on reservoir architecture and geographic distribution of Smackover reservoirs is the fabric and texture of the depositional lithofacies, diagenesis (chiefly dolomitization) is a significant factor that preserves and enhances reservoir quality. The evaporative pumping mechanism is favored to explain the dolomitization of the thrombolite doloboundstone and dolostone reservoir flow units at Appleton and Vocation Fields. Geologic modeling, reservoir simulation, and the testing and applying the resulting integrated geologic-engineering models have shown that little oil remains to be recovered at Appleton Field and a significant amount of oil remains to be recovered at Vocation Field through a strategic infill drilling program. The drive mechanisms for primary production in Appleton and Vocation Fields remain effective; therefore, the initiation of a pressure maintenance program or enhanced recovery project is not required at this time. The integrated geologic-engineering model developed for a low-relief paleohigh (Appleton Field) was tested for three scenarios involving the variables of present-day structural elevation and the presence/absence of potential reef thrombolite lithofacies. In each case, the predictions based upon the model were correct. From this modeling, the characteristics of the ideal prospect in the basement ridge play include a low-relief paleohigh associated with dendroidal/chaotic thrombolite doloboundstone and dolostone that has sufficient present-day structural relief so that these carbonates rest above the oil-water contact. Such a prospect was identified from the modeling, and it is located northwest of well Permit No. 3854B (Appleton Field) and south of well No. Permit No.11030B (Northwest Appleton Field).« less
Analysis of ambient conditions and simulation of hydrodynamics, constituent transport, and water-quality characteristics in Lake Maumelle, Arkansas, 1991-92

USGS Publications Warehouse

Green, W. Reed

2001-01-01

Lake Maumelle is the major drinking-water source for the Little Rock metropolitan area in central Arkansas. Urban and agricultural development has increased in the Lake Maumelle Basin and information is needed related to constituent transport and waterquality response to changes in constituent loading or hydrologic regime. This report characterizes ambient conditions in Lake Maumelle and its major tributary, Maumelle River; describes the calibration and verification of a numerical model of hydrodynamics and water quality; and provides several simulations that describe constituent transport and water quality response to changes in constituent loading and hydrologic regime. Ambient hydrologic and water-quality conditions demonstrate the relatively undisturbed nature of Lake Maumelle and the Maumelle River. Nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations were low, one to two orders of magnitude lower than estimates of national background nutrient concentrations. Phosphorus and chlorophyll a concentrations in Lake Maumelle demonstrate its oligotrophic/mesotrophic condition. However, concentrations of chlorophyll a appeared to increase since 1990 within the upper and middle reaches of the reservoir. A two-dimensional, laterally averaged hydrodynamic and water-quality model developed and calibrated for Lake Maumelle simulates water level, currents, heat transport and temperature distribution, conservative material transport, and the transport and transformation of 11 chemical constituents. Simulations included the movement and dispersion of spills or releases in the reservoir during stratified and unstratified conditions, release of the fish nursery pond off the southern shore of Lake Maumelle, and algal responses to changes in external loading. The model was calibrated using 1991 data and verified using 1992 data. Simulated temperature and dissolved oxygen concentrations related well when compared to measured values. Simulated nutrient and algal biomass also related reasonably well when compared to measured values. A simulated spill of conservative material at the upper end of Lake Maumelle during a major storm event took less than 102 hours to disperse the entire length of the reservoir. Simulation of a nursery pond release into a tributary to Lake Maumelle demonstrated how the released water plunges within the receiving embayment and enters the main stem of the reservoir at mid depths. Simulations of algal response to increases of nitrogen and phosphorus loads demonstrate the phosphorus limiting condition in Lake Maumelle. Results from this study will provide waterresource management with information to better understand how changes in hydrology and water quality in the basin affects water quality in the reservoir. With this information, managers will be able to more effectively manage their drinking-water source supply.
Development and Application of a Taiwan Domestic Generalized Water Supply Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ho, C. C.; Chang, L. C.

2016-12-01

Water allocation in Taiwan is more complicated than other countries because high river turbidity caused by rainstorm, reservoir management governed by different organization and conjunctive use of inter-basin reservoirs and dams. Those properties cause water resource planners need make extra effort on developing customized model to simulate the impact of water supply strategies on water resources. Hence, the study develops a Generalized Water Supply Model (GWSM) to analysis Multi-reservoirs water allocation in Taiwan for advancing the planning process. The model has following functions: (1) considering reservoirs operating rule curve. (2) considering the rule of multi-reservoir operation. Such as setting supply priority of different reservoirs or using "index balance" rule. (3) considering optimal hydroelectric power operation. (4) estimating the impact of high river turbidity on water supply. (5) considering the supply priority of different water use. (6) considering irrigation supply under special constraint. Such as the maximum irrigation supply is subject to natural inflow without reservoir storage. (7) considering two-way conduit transport. (8) considering environmental flow reservation. Conjunctive use Taan and Dajia Rivers was selected to demonstrate the ability of GWSM. The results also can be provided to different authorities to realize the impact of different strategies and that is good for negotiation and reaching a consensus.
Introducing GEOPHIRES v2.0: Updated Geothermal Techno-Economic Simulation Tool

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Beckers, Koenraad J; McCabe, Kevin

This paper presents an updated version of the geothermal techno-economic simulation tool GEOPHIRES (GEOthermal energy for Production of Heat and electricity ('IR') Economically Simulated). GEOPHIRES combines engineering models of the reservoir, wellbores, and surface plant facilities of a geothermal plant with an economic model to estimate the capital and operation and maintenance costs, lifetime energy production, and overall levelized cost of energy. The available end-use options are electricity, direct-use heat, and cogeneration. The main updates in the new version include conversion of the source code from FORTRAN to Python, the option to import temperature data (e.g., measured or from stand-alonemore » reservoir simulator), updated cost correlations, and more flexibility in selecting the time step and number of injection and production wells. In this paper, we provide an overview of all the updates and two case studies to illustrate the tool's new capabilities.« less

A Review of Methods Applied by the U.S. Geological Survey in the Assessment of Identified Geothermal Resources

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams, Colin F.; Reed, Marshall J.; Mariner, Robert H.

2008-01-01

The U. S. Geological Survey (USGS) is conducting an updated assessment of geothermal resources in the United States. The primary method applied in assessments of identified geothermal systems by the USGS and other organizations is the volume method, in which the recoverable heat is estimated from the thermal energy available in a reservoir. An important focus in the assessment project is on the development of geothermal resource models consistent with the production histories and observed characteristics of exploited geothermal fields. The new assessment will incorporate some changes in the models for temperature and depth ranges for electric power production, preferred chemical geothermometers for estimates of reservoir temperatures, estimates of reservoir volumes, and geothermal energy recovery factors. Monte Carlo simulations are used to characterize uncertainties in the estimates of electric power generation. These new models for the recovery of heat from heterogeneous, fractured reservoirs provide a physically realistic basis for evaluating the production potential of natural geothermal reservoirs.
Building a 3D faulted a priori model for stratigraphic inversion: Illustration of a new methodology applied on a North Sea field case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rainaud, Jean-François; Clochard, Vincent; Delépine, Nicolas; Crabié, Thomas; Poudret, Mathieu; Perrin, Michel; Klein, Emmanuel

2018-07-01

Accurate reservoir characterization is needed all along the development of an oil and gas field study. It helps building 3D numerical reservoir simulation models for estimating the original oil and gas volumes in place and for simulating fluid flow behaviors. At a later stage of the field development, reservoir characterization can also help deciding which recovery techniques need to be used for fluids extraction. In complex media, such as faulted reservoirs, flow behavior predictions within volumes close to faults can be a very challenging issue. During the development plan, it is necessary to determine which types of communication exist between faults or which potential barriers exist for fluid flows. The solving of these issues rests on accurate fault characterization. In most cases, faults are not preserved along reservoir characterization workflows. The memory of the interpreted faults from seismic is not kept during seismic inversion and further interpretation of the result. The goal of our study is at first to integrate a 3D fault network as a priori information into a model-based stratigraphic inversion procedure. Secondly, we apply our methodology on a well-known oil and gas case study over a typical North Sea field (UK Northern North Sea) in order to demonstrate its added value for determining reservoir properties. More precisely, the a priori model is composed of several geological units populated by physical attributes, they are extrapolated from well log data following the deposition mode, but usually a priori model building methods respect neither the 3D fault geometry nor the stratification dips on the fault sides. We address this difficulty by applying an efficient flattening method for each stratigraphic unit in our workflow. Even before seismic inversion, the obtained stratigraphic model has been directly used to model synthetic seismic on our case study. Comparisons between synthetic seismic obtained from our 3D fault network model give much lower residuals than with a "basic" stratigraphic model. Finally, we apply our model-based inversion considering both faulted and non-faulted a priori models. By comparing the rock impedances results obtain in the two cases, we can see a better delineation of the Brent-reservoir compartments by using the 3D faulted a priori model built with our method.
Fracturing And Liquid CONvection

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

2012-02-29

FALCON has been developed to enable simulation of the tightly coupled fluid-rock behavior in hydrothermal and engineered geothermal system (EGS) reservoirs, targeting the dynamics of fracture stimulation, fluid flow, rock deformation, and heat transport in a single integrated code, with the ultimate goal of providing a tool that can be used to test the viability of EGS in the United States and worldwide. Reliable reservoir performance predictions of EGS systems require accurate and robust modeling for the coupled thermal-hydrological-mechanical processes. Conventionally, these types of problems are solved using operator-splitting methods, usually by coupling a subsurface flow and heat transport simulatormore » with a solid mechanics simulator via input files. FALCON eliminates the need for using operator-splitting methods to simulate these systems, and the scalability of the underlying MOOSE architecture allows for simulating these tightly coupled processes at the reservoir scale, allowing for examination of the system as a whole (something the operator-splitting methodologies generally cannot do).« less
Modeling Responses of Naturally Fractured Geothermal Reservoir to Low-Pressure Stimulation

DOE Data Explorer

Fu, Pengcheng; Carrigan, Charles R.

2012-01-01

Hydraulic shearing is an appealing reservoir stimulation strategy for Enhanced Geothermal Systems. It is believed that hydro-shearing is likely to simulate a fracture network that covers a relatively large volume of the reservoir whereas hydro-fracturing tends to create a small number of fractures. In this paper, we examine the geomechanical and hydraulic behaviors of natural fracture systems subjected to hydro-shearing stimulation and develop a coupled numerical model within the framework of discrete fracture network modeling. We found that in the low pressure hydro-shearing regime, the coupling between the fluid phase and the rock solid phase is relatively simple, and the numerical model is computationally efficient. Using this modified model, we study the behavior of a random fracture network subjected to hydro-shearing stimulation.
An Integrated Crustal Dynamics Simulator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xing, H. L.; Mora, P.

2007-12-01

Numerical modelling offers an outstanding opportunity to gain an understanding of the crustal dynamics and complex crustal system behaviour. This presentation provides our long-term and ongoing effort on finite element based computational model and software development to simulate the interacting fault system for earthquake forecasting. A R-minimum strategy based finite-element computational model and software tool, PANDAS, for modelling 3-dimensional nonlinear frictional contact behaviour between multiple deformable bodies with the arbitrarily-shaped contact element strategy has been developed by the authors, which builds up a virtual laboratory to simulate interacting fault systems including crustal boundary conditions and various nonlinearities (e.g. from frictional contact, materials, geometry and thermal coupling). It has been successfully applied to large scale computing of the complex nonlinear phenomena in the non-continuum media involving the nonlinear frictional instability, multiple material properties and complex geometries on supercomputers, such as the South Australia (SA) interacting fault system, South California fault model and Sumatra subduction model. It has been also extended and to simulate the hot fractured rock (HFR) geothermal reservoir system in collaboration of Geodynamics Ltd which is constructing the first geothermal reservoir system in Australia and to model the tsunami generation induced by earthquakes. Both are supported by Australian Research Council.
Geohydrology, aqueous geochemistry, and thermal regime of the Soda Lakes and Upsal Hogback geothermal systems, Churchill County, Nevada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Olmsted, F.H.; Welch, A.H.; Van Denburgh, A.S.; Ingebritsen, S.E.

1984-01-01

A flow-routing model of the upper Schoharie Creek basin, New York, was developed and used to simulate high flows at the inlet of the Blenheim-Gilboa Reservoir. The flows from Schoharie Creek at Prattsville, the primary source of flow data in the basin, and tributary flows from the six minor basins downstream, are combined and routed along the 9.7 mile reach of the Schoharie Creek between Prattsville and the reservoir inlet. Data from five historic floods were used for model calibration and four for verification. The accuracy of the model as measured by the difference between simulated and observed total flow volumes, is within 14 percent. Results indicate that inflows to the Blenheim-Gilboa Reservoir can be predicted approximately 2 hours in advance. One of the historical floods was chosen for additional model testing to assess a hypothetical real-time model application. Total flow-volume errors ranged from 30.2 percent to -9.2 percent. Alternative methods of obtaining hydrologic data for model input are presented for use in the event that standard forms of hydrologic data are unavailable. (USGS)
Numerical simulation of gas hydrate exploitation from subsea reservoirs in the Black Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Janicki, Georg; Schlüter, Stefan; Hennig, Torsten; Deerberg, Görge

2017-04-01

Natural gas (methane) is the most environmental friendly source of fossil energy. When coal is replace by natural gas in power production the emission of carbon dioxide is reduced by 50 %. The vast amount of methane assumed in gas hydrate deposits can help to overcome a shortage of fossil energy resources in the future. To increase their potential for energy applications new technological approaches are being discussed and developed worldwide. Besides technical challenges that have to be overcome climate and safety issues have to be considered before a commercial exploitation of such unconventional reservoirs. The potential of producing natural gas from subsea gas hydrate deposits by various means (e. g. depressurization and/or carbon dioxide injection) is numerically studied in the frame of the German research project »SUGAR - Submarine Gas Hydrate Reservoirs«. In order to simulate the exploitation of hydrate-bearing sediments in the subsea, an in-house simulation model HyReS which is implemented in the general-purpose software COMSOL Multiphysics is used. This tool turned out to be especially suited for the flexible implementation of non-standard correlations concerning heat transfer, fluid flow, hydrate kinetics, and other relevant model data. Partially based on the simulation results, the development of a technical concept and its evaluation are the subject of ongoing investigations, whereby geological and ecological criteria are to be considered. The results illustrate the processes and effects occurring during the gas production from a subsea gas hydrate deposit by depressurization. The simulation results from a case study for a deposit located in the Black Sea reveal that the production of natural gas by simple depressurization is possible but with quite low rates. It can be shown that the hydrate decomposition and thus the gas production strongly depend on the geophysical properties of the reservoir, the mass and heat transport within the reservoir, and the model settings. In particular, the permeability and the available heat, which is required to decompose the hydrate, play an important role. The work is focused on the thermodynamic principles and technological approaches for the exploitation.
Applications of the SWOT Mission to Reservoirs in the Mekong River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonnema, M.; Hossain, F.

2017-12-01

The forthcoming Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission has the potential to significantly improve our ability to observe artificial reservoirs globally from a remote sensing perspective. By providing simultaneous estimates of reservoir water surface extent and elevation with near global coverage, reservoir storage changes can be estimated. Knowing how reservoir storage changes over time is critical for understanding reservoir impacts on river systems. In data limited regions, remote sensing is often the only viable method of retrieving such information about reservoir operations. When SWOT launches in 2021, it will join an array of satellite sensors with long histories of reservoir observation and monitoring capabilities. There are many potential synergies in the complimentary use of future SWOT observations with observations from current satellite sensors. The work presented here explores the potential benefits of utilizing SWOT observations over 20 reservoirs in the Mekong River Basin. The SWOT hydrologic simulator, developed by NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, is used to generate realistic SWOT observations, which are then inserted into a previously established remote sensing modeling framework of the 20 Mekong Basin reservoirs. This framework currently combines data from Landsat missions, Jason radar altimeters, and the Shuttle Radar and Topography Mission (SRTM), to provide monthly estimates of reservoir storage change. The incorporation of SWOT derived reservoir surface area and elevation into the model is explored in an effort to improve both accuracy and temporal resolution of observed reservoir operations.
A modeling study of the long-term mineral trapping in deep saline marine sands aquifers (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aagaard, P.; Pham, V.; Hellevang, H.

2009-12-01

Simulation of geochemical processes due to CO2 injection and storage are dependent on sediment petrography and the kinetics of mineral fluid reactions. Mineral trapping of CO2 in the Utsira sand and similar marine sand reservoirs have been revisited based on critical review of rate data and geochemical constraints on formation waters. Reaction paths calculations were done with the PHREEQC modeling software at relevant reservoir conditions covering a temperature range of 30-100 °C and corresponding reservoir pressures. Initial CO2 saturation was determined by the fluid fugacity corresponding with reservoir conditions. The mineral dissolution kinetics was expressed with a chemical affinity term (Aagaard & Helgeson,1982) while a critical super-saturation for mineral growth was included in the precipitation rate expression. The redox conditions and the H2S fugacity in the simulations were constrained by the acetic/propionic acid buffer trend and the magnetite-pyrite buffer (Aagaard et al. 2001) respectively. We used a revised mineralogical composition for the Utsira sand also performed a sensitivity analyses with respect to mineral content. The simulations were run over a period of 10000 years. The main simulation results included dissolution of glauconite, smectite, pyrite, muscovite and albite, with precipitation of the carbonates siderite, ankerite, and minor dawsonite, as well as kaolinite, silica (either chalcedony or quartz), and K-feldspar. The uncertainties in the simulations are specially connected with initial mineral abundances. The effect of critical super-saturation and reactive surface area for precipitation needs to be further evaluated and tested. Aagaard, P. and H.C. Helgeson (1982). Thermodynamic and Kinetic Constraints on Reaction Rates among Minerals and Aqueous Solutions. I. Theoretical Considerations. Am. J. Sci., v. 282, p. 257-285. P. Aagaard, J. Jahren & S.N. Ehrenberg (2001) H2S controling reactions in clastic hydrocarbon reservoirs from the Norwegian Shelf and Gulf Coast, in Cidu, R.(ed) Water-Rock Interaction, WRI-10, Balkema, p. 129-132.
Depositional sequence analysis and sedimentologic modeling for improved prediction of Pennsylvanian reservoirs (Annex 1). Annual report, February 1, 1991--January 31, 1992

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Watney, W.L.

1992-08-01

Interdisciplinary studies of the Upper Pennsylvanian Lansing and Kansas City groups have been undertaken in order to improve the geologic characterization of petroleum reservoirs and to develop a quantitative understanding of the processes responsible for formation of associated depositional sequences. To this end, concepts and methods of sequence stratigraphy are being used to define and interpret the three-dimensional depositional framework of the Kansas City Group. The investigation includes characterization of reservoir rocks in oil fields in western Kansas, description of analog equivalents in near-surface and surface sites in southeastern Kansas, and construction of regional structural and stratigraphic framework to linkmore » the site specific studies. Geologic inverse and simulation models are being developed to integrate quantitative estimates of controls on sedimentation to produce reconstructions of reservoir-bearing strata in an attempt to enhance our ability to predict reservoir characteristics.« less
Depositional sequence analysis and sedimentologic modeling for improved prediction of Pennsylvanian reservoirs (Annex 1)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Watney, W.L.

1992-01-01

Interdisciplinary studies of the Upper Pennsylvanian Lansing and Kansas City groups have been undertaken in order to improve the geologic characterization of petroleum reservoirs and to develop a quantitative understanding of the processes responsible for formation of associated depositional sequences. To this end, concepts and methods of sequence stratigraphy are being used to define and interpret the three-dimensional depositional framework of the Kansas City Group. The investigation includes characterization of reservoir rocks in oil fields in western Kansas, description of analog equivalents in near-surface and surface sites in southeastern Kansas, and construction of regional structural and stratigraphic framework to linkmore » the site specific studies. Geologic inverse and simulation models are being developed to integrate quantitative estimates of controls on sedimentation to produce reconstructions of reservoir-bearing strata in an attempt to enhance our ability to predict reservoir characteristics.« less
Study on reservoir time-varying design flood of inflow based on Poisson process with time-dependent parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jiqing; Huang, Jing; Li, Jianchang

2018-06-01

The time-varying design flood can make full use of the measured data, which can provide the reservoir with the basis of both flood control and operation scheduling. This paper adopts peak over threshold method for flood sampling in unit periods and Poisson process with time-dependent parameters model for simulation of reservoirs time-varying design flood. Considering the relationship between the model parameters and hypothesis, this paper presents the over-threshold intensity, the fitting degree of Poisson distribution and the design flood parameters are the time-varying design flood unit period and threshold discriminant basis, deduced Longyangxia reservoir time-varying design flood process at 9 kinds of design frequencies. The time-varying design flood of inflow is closer to the reservoir actual inflow conditions, which can be used to adjust the operating water level in flood season and make plans for resource utilization of flood in the basin.
Climate Change Impacts on Stream Temperature in Regulated River Systems: A Case Study in the Southeastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Y.; Niemeyer, R. J.; Zhang, X.; Yearsley, J. R.; Voisin, N.; Nijssen, B.

2017-12-01

Climate change and associated changes in air temperature and precipitation are projected to impact natural water resources quantity, quality and timing. In the past century, over 280 major dams were built in the Southeastern United States (SEUS) (GRanD database). Regulation of the river system greatly alters natural streamflow as well as stream temperature. Understanding the impacts of climate change on regulated systems, particularly within the context of the Clean Water Act, can inform stakeholders how to maintain and adapt water operations (e.g. regulation, withdrawals). In this study, we use a new modeling framework to study climate change impacts on stream temperatures of a regulated river system. We simulate runoff with the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macroscale hydrological model, regulated streamflow and reservoir operations with a large-scale river routing-reservoir model (MOSART-WM), and stream temperature using the River Basin Model (RBM). We enhanced RBM with a two-layer thermal stratification reservoir module. This modeling framework captures both the impact of reservoir regulation on streamflow and the reservoir stratification effects on downstream temperatures. We evaluate changes in flow and stream temperatures based on climate projections from two representative concentration pathways (RCPs; RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). We simulate river temperature with meteorological forcings that have been downscaled with the Multivariate Constructed Analogs (MACA) method. We are specifically interested in analyzing extreme periods during which stream temperature exceeds water quality standards. In this study, we focus on identifying whether these extreme temperature periods coincide with low flows, and whether the frequency and duration of these operationally-relevant periods will increase under future climate change.
Dual permeability flow behavior for modeling horizontal well production in fractured-vuggy carbonate reservoirs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Jian-Chun; Nie, Ren-Shi; Jia, Yong-Lu

2012-09-01

SummaryFractured-vuggy carbonate reservoirs are composed of by matrix, fracture, and vug systems. This paper is the first investigation into the dual permeability flow issue for horizontal well production in a fractured-vuggy carbonate reservoir. Considering dispersed vugs in carbonate reservoirs and treating media directly connected with horizontal wellbore as the matrix and fracture systems, a test analysis model of a horizontal well was created, and triple porosity and dual permeability flow behavior were modeled. Standard log-log type curves were drawn up by numerical simulation and flow behavior characteristics were thoroughly analyzed. Numerical simulations showed that type curves are dominated by external boundary conditions as well as the permeability ratio of the fracture system to the sum of fracture and matrix systems. The parameter κ is only relevant to the dual permeability model, and if κ is one, then the dual permeability model is equivalent to the single permeability model. There are seven main flow regimes with constant rate of horizontal well production and five flow regimes with constant wellbore pressure of horizontal well production; different flow regimes have different flow behavior characteristics. Early radial flow and linear flow regimes are typical characteristics of horizontal well production; duration of early radial flow regime is usually short because formation thickness is generally less than 100 m. Derivative curves are W-shaped, which is a reflection of inter-porosity flows between matrix, fracture, and vug systems. A distorted W-shape, which could be produced in certain situations, such as one involving an erroneously low time of inter-porosity flows, would handicap the recognition of a linear flow regime. A real case application was successfully implemented, and some useful reservoir parameters (e.g., permeability and inter-porosity flow factor) were obtained from well testing interpretation.
Artificial neural network modeling of dissolved oxygen in reservoir.

PubMed

Chen, Wei-Bo; Liu, Wen-Cheng

2014-02-01

The water quality of reservoirs is one of the key factors in the operation and water quality management of reservoirs. Dissolved oxygen (DO) in water column is essential for microorganisms and a significant indicator of the state of aquatic ecosystems. In this study, two artificial neural network (ANN) models including back propagation neural network (BPNN) and adaptive neural-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) approaches and multilinear regression (MLR) model were developed to estimate the DO concentration in the Feitsui Reservoir of northern Taiwan. The input variables of the neural network are determined as water temperature, pH, conductivity, turbidity, suspended solids, total hardness, total alkalinity, and ammonium nitrogen. The performance of the ANN models and MLR model was assessed through the mean absolute error, root mean square error, and correlation coefficient computed from the measured and model-simulated DO values. The results reveal that ANN estimation performances were superior to those of MLR. Comparing to the BPNN and ANFIS models through the performance criteria, the ANFIS model is better than the BPNN model for predicting the DO values. Study results show that the neural network particularly using ANFIS model is able to predict the DO concentrations with reasonable accuracy, suggesting that the neural network is a valuable tool for reservoir management in Taiwan.
A simulation-optimization model for water-resources management, Santa Barbara, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nishikawa, Tracy

1998-01-01

In times of drought, the local water supplies of the city of Santa Barbara, California, are insufficient to satisfy water demand. In response, the city has built a seawater desalination plant and gained access to imported water in 1997. Of primary concern to the city is delivering water from the various sources at a minimum cost while satisfying water demand and controlling seawater intrusion that might result from the overpumping of ground water. A simulation-optimization model has been developed for the optimal management of Santa Barbara?s water resources. The objective is to minimize the cost of water supply while satisfying various physical and institutional constraints such as meeting water demand, maintaining minimum hydraulic heads at selected sites, and not exceeding water-delivery or pumping capacities. The model is formulated as a linear programming problem with monthly management periods and a total planning horizon of 5 years. The decision variables are water deliveries from surface water (Gibraltar Reservoir, Cachuma Reservoir, Cachuma Reservoir cumulative annual carryover, Mission Tunnel, State Water Project, and desalinated seawater) and ground water (13 production wells). The state variables are hydraulic heads. Basic assumptions for all simulations are that (1) the cost of water varies with source but is fixed over time, and (2) only existing or planned city wells are considered; that is, the construction of new wells is not allowed. The drought of 1947?51 is Santa Barbara?s worst drought on record, and simulated surface-water supplies for this period were used as a basis for testing optimal management of current water resources under drought conditions. Assumptions that were made for this base case include a head constraint equal to sea level at the coastal nodes; Cachuma Reservoir carryover of 3,000 acre-feet per year, with a maximum carryover of 8,277 acre-feet; a maximum annual demand of 15,000 acre-feet; and average monthly capacities for the Cachuma and the Gibraltar Reservoirs. The base-case results indicate that water demands can be met, with little water required from the most expensive water source (desalinated seawater), at a total cost of $5.56 million over the 5-year planning horizon. The simulation model has drains, which operate as nonlinear functions of heads and could affect the model solutions. However, numerical tests show that the drains have little effect on the optimal solution. Sensitivity analyses on the base case yield the following results: If allowable Cachuma Reservoir carryover is decreased by about 50 percent, then costs increase by about 14 percent; if the peak demand is decreased by 7 percent, then costs will decrease by about 14 percent; if the head constraints are loosened to -30 feet, then the costs decrease by about 18 percent; if the heads are constrained such that a zero hydraulic gradient condition occurs at the ocean boundary, then the optimization problem does not have a solution; if the capacity of the desalination plant is constrained to zero acre-feet, then the cost increases by about 2 percent; and if the carryover of State Water Project water is implemented, then the cost decreases by about 0.5 percent. Four additional monthly diversion distribution scenarios for the reservoirs were tested: average monthly Cachuma Reservoir deliveries with the actual (scenario 1) and proposed (scenario 2) monthly distributions of Gibraltar Reservoir water, and variable monthly Cachuma Reservoir deliveries with the actual (scenario 3) and proposed (scenario 4) monthly distributions of Gibraltar Reservoir water. Scenario 1 resulted in a total cost of about $7.55 million, scenario 2 resulted in a total cost of about $5.07 million, and scenarios 3 and 4 resulted in a total cost of about $4.53 million. Sensitivities of the scenarios 1 and 2 to desalination-plant capacity and State Water Project water carryover were tested. The scenario 1 sensitivity analysis indicated that incorpo
Identification and evaluation of fluvial-dominated deltaic (Class I oil) reservoirs in Oklahoma. Quarterly technical progress report, July 1--September 30, 1995

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mankin, C.J.; Banken, M.K.

The Oklahoma Geological Survey (OGS), the Geo Information Systems department, and the School of Petroleum and Geological Engineering at the University of Oklahoma are engaged in a program to identify and address Oklahoma`s oil recovery opportunities in fluvial-dominated deltaic (FDD) reservoirs. This program includes the systematic and comprehensive collection and evaluation of information on all of Oklahoma`s FDD reservoirs and the recovery technologies that have been (or could be) applied to those reservoirs with commercial success. This data collection and evaluation effort will be the foundation for an aggressive, multifaceted technology transfer program that is designed to support all ofmore » Oklahoma`s oil industry, with particular emphasis on smaller companies and independent operators in their attempts to maximize the economic producibility of FDD reservoirs. Specifically, this project will identify all FDD oil reservoirs in the State; group those reservoirs into plays that have similar depositional origins; collect, organize and analyze all available data conduct characterization and simulation studies on selected reservoirs in each play; and implement a technology transfer program targeted to the operators of FDD reservoirs. Activities were focused primarily on technology transfer elements of the project. This included regional play analysis and mapping, geologic field studies, and reservoir modeling for secondary water flood simulations as used in publication folios and workshops. The computer laboratory was fully operational for operator use. Computer systems design and database development activities were ongoing.« less
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cipolla, C.L.; Mayerhofer, M.

The paper details the acquisition of detailed core and pressure data and the subsequent reservoir modeling in the Ozona Gas Field, Crockett County, Texas. The Canyon formation is the focus of the study and consists of complex turbidite sands characterized by numerous lenticular gas bearing members. The sands cannot be characterized using indirect measurements (logs) and no reliable porosity-permeability relationship could be developed. The reservoir simulation results illustrate the problems associated with interpreting typical pressure and production data in tight gas sands and details procedures to identify incremental reserves. Reservoir layering was represented by five model layers and layer permeabilitiesmore » were estimated based on statistical distributions from core measurements.« less
Simulation Study of CO2-EOR in Tight Oil Reservoirs with Complex Fracture Geometries

PubMed Central

Zuloaga-Molero, Pavel; Yu, Wei; Xu, Yifei; Sepehrnoori, Kamy; Li, Baozhen

2016-01-01

The recent development of tight oil reservoirs has led to an increase in oil production in the past several years due to the progress in horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing. However, the expected oil recovery factor from these reservoirs is still very low. CO2-based enhanced oil recovery is a suitable solution to improve the recovery. One challenge of the estimation of the recovery is to properly model complex hydraulic fracture geometries which are often assumed to be planar due to the limitation of local grid refinement approach. More flexible methods like the use of unstructured grids can significantly increase the computational demand. In this study, we introduce an efficient methodology of the embedded discrete fracture model to explicitly model complex fracture geometries. We build a compositional reservoir model to investigate the effects of complex fracture geometries on performance of CO2 Huff-n-Puff and CO2 continuous injection. The results confirm that the appropriate modelling of the fracture geometry plays a critical role in the estimation of the incremental oil recovery. This study also provides new insights into the understanding of the impacts of CO2 molecular diffusion, reservoir permeability, and natural fractures on the performance of CO2-EOR processes in tight oil reservoirs. PMID:27628131
Impacts of Climate Change on Management of the Colorado River Reservoir System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Christensen, N. S.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

2002-05-01

The Colorado River system provides water supply to a large area of the interior west. It drains a mostly arid area, with naturalized flow (effects of reservoirs and diversions removed) averaging only 40 mm/yr over the 630,000 km2 drainage area at the mouth of the river. Total reservoir storage (mostly behind Hoover and Glen Canyon Dams) is equivalent to over four times the mean flow of the river. Runoff is heavily dominated by high elevation source areas in the Rocky Mountain headwaters, and the seasonal runoff pattern throughout the Colorado basin is strongly dominated by winter snow accumulation and spring melt. Because of the arid nature of the basin and the low runoff per unit area, performance of the reservoir system is potentially susceptible to changes in streamflow that would result from global warming, although those manifestations are somewhat different than elsewhere in the west where reservoir storage is relatively much smaller. We evaluate, using the macroscale Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, possible changes in streamflow over the next century using three 100-year ensemble climate simulations of the NCAR/DOE Parallel Climate Model corresponding to business-as-usual (BAU) future greenhouse gas emissions. Single ensemble simulations of the U.K. Hadley Center, and the Max Planck Institute, are considered as well. For most of the climate scenarios, the peak runoff shifts about one month earlier relative to the recent past. However, unlike reservoir systems elsewhere in the west, the effect of these timing shifts is largely mitigated by the size of the reservoir system, and changes in reservoir system reliability (for agricultural water supply and hydropower production) are dominated by streamflow volume shifts, which vary considerably across the climate scenarios.

Post-injection Multiphase Flow Modeling and Risk Assessments for Subsurface CO2 Storage in Naturally Fractured Reservoirs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jin, G.

2015-12-01

Subsurface storage of carbon dioxide in geological formations is widely regarded as a promising tool for reducing global atmospheric CO2 emissions. Successful geologic storage for sequestrated carbon dioxides must prove to be safe by means of risk assessments including post-injection analysis of injected CO2 plumes. Because fractured reservoirs exhibit a higher degree of heterogeneity, it is imperative to conduct such simulation studies in order to reliably predict the geometric evolution of plumes and risk assessment of post CO2injection. The research has addressed the pressure footprint of CO2 plumes through the development of new techniques which combine discrete fracture network and stochastic continuum modeling of multiphase flow in fractured geologic formations. A subsequent permeability tensor map in 3-D, derived from our preciously developed method, can accurately describe the heterogeneity of fracture reservoirs. A comprehensive workflow integrating the fracture permeability characterization and multiphase flow modeling has been developed to simulate the CO2plume migration and risk assessments. A simulated fractured reservoir model based on high-priority geological carbon sinks in central Alabama has been employed for preliminary study. Discrete fracture networks were generated with an NE-oriented regional fracture set and orthogonal NW-fractures. Fracture permeability characterization revealed high permeability heterogeneity with an order of magnitude of up to three. A multiphase flow model composed of supercritical CO2 and saline water was then applied to predict CO2 plume volume, geometry, pressure footprint, and containment during and post injection. Injection simulation reveals significant permeability anisotropy that favors development of northeast-elongate CO2 plumes, which are aligned with systematic fractures. The diffusive spreading front of the CO2 plume shows strong viscous fingering effects. Post-injection simulation indicates significant upward lateral spreading of CO2 resulting in accumulation of CO2 directly under the seal unit because of its buoyancy and strata-bound vertical fractures. Risk assessment shows that lateral movement of CO2 along interconnected fractures requires widespread seals with high integrity to confine the injected CO2.
Risk Analysis of Extreme Rainfall Effects on the Shihmen Reservoir

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ho, Y.; Lien, W.; Tung, C.

2009-12-01

Typhoon Morakot intruded Taiwan during 7th and 8th of August 2009, brought about 2,700 mm of total rainfall which caused serious flood and debris to the southern region of Taiwan. One of the serious flooded areas is in the downstream of Zengwen reservoir. People believed that the large amount of floodwater released from Zengwen reservoir led to the severe inundation. Therefore, the Shihmen reservoir is one of the important reservoirs in northern Taiwan. The Taipei metropolis, which is in downstream of Shihmen reservoir, is the political and economical center of Taiwan. If heavy rainfall as those brought by Typhoon Marakot falls in the Shihmen reservoir watershed, it may create a bigger disaster. This study focused on the impacts of a typhoon, like Morakot, in Shihmen reservoir. The hydrological model is used to simulate the reservoir inflows under different rainfall conditions. The reservoir water balance model is developed to calculate reservoir’s storage and outflows under the inflows and operational rules. The ability of flood mitigation is also evaluated. Besides, the released floodwater from reservoir and the inflows from different tributaries are used to determine whether or not the river stage will overtop levee. Also, the maximum released floodwater and other inflows which could lead to damages will be stated. Lastly, the criteria of rainfall conditions and initial stages of reservoir will be analyzed in this study.
Conceptualization of Karstic Aquifer with Multiple Outlets Using a Dual Porosity Model.

PubMed

Hosseini, Seiyed Mossa; Ataie-Ashtiani, Behzad

2017-07-01

In this study, two conceptual models, the classic reservoir (CR) model and exchange reservoirs model embedded by dual porosity approach (DPR) are developed for simulation of karst aquifer functioning drained by multiple outlets. The performances of two developed models are demonstrated at a less developed karstic aquifer with three spring outlets located in Zagros Mountain in the south-west of Iran using 22-years of daily data. During the surface recharge, a production function based on water mass balance is implemented for computing the time series of surface recharge to the karst formations. The efficiency of both models has been assessed for simulation of daily spring discharge during the recession and also surface recharge periods. Results indicate that both CR and DPR models are capable of simulating the ordinates of spring hydrographs which drainage less developed karstic aquifer. However, the goodness of fit criteria indicates outperformance of DPR model for simulation of total hydrograph ordinates. In addition, the DPR model is capable of quantifying hydraulic properties of two hydrologically connected overlapping continua conduits network and fissure matrix which lays important foundations for the mining operation and water resource management whereas homogeneous model representations of the karstic subsurface (e.g., the CR) do not work accurately in the karstic environment. © 2017, National Ground Water Association.
Numerical studies of depressurization-induced gas production from an interbedded marine turbidite gas hydrate reservoir model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Myshakin, Evgeniy; Lin, Jeen-Shang; Uchida, Shun; Seol, Yongkoo; Collett, Timothy S.; Boswell, Ray

2017-01-01

The numerical simulation of thin hydrate-bearing sand layers interbedded with mud layers is investigated. In this model, the lowest hydrate layer occurs at the base of gas hydrate stability and overlies a thinly-interbedded saline aquifer. The predicted gas rates reach 6.25 MMscf/day (1.77 x 105 m3 /day) after 90 days of continuous depressurization with manageable water production. Development of horizontal dissociating interfaces between hydrate-bearing sand and mud layers is a primary determinant of reservoir performance. A set of simulations has been executed to assess uncertainty in in situ permeability and to determine the impact of the saline aquifer on productivity.
Hamiltonian thermostats fail to promote heat flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoover, Wm. G.; Hoover, Carol G.

2013-12-01

Hamiltonian mechanics can be used to constrain temperature simultaneously with energy. We illustrate the interesting situations that develop when two different temperatures are imposed within a composite Hamiltonian system. The model systems we treat are ϕ4 chains, with quartic tethers and quadratic nearest-neighbor Hooke's-law interactions. This model is known to satisfy Fourier's law. Our prototypical problem sandwiches a Newtonian subsystem between hot and cold Hamiltonian reservoir regions. We have characterized four different Hamiltonian reservoir types. There is no tendency for any of these two-temperature Hamiltonian simulations to transfer heat from the hot to the cold degrees of freedom. Evidently steady heat flow simulations require energy sources and sinks, and are therefore incompatible with Hamiltonian mechanics.
Geomechanical Modeling for Improved CO2 Storage Security

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rutqvist, J.; Rinaldi, A. P.; Cappa, F.; Jeanne, P.; Mazzoldi, A.; Urpi, L.; Vilarrasa, V.; Guglielmi, Y.

2017-12-01

This presentation summarizes recent modeling studies on geomechanical aspects related to Geologic Carbon Sequestration (GCS,) including modeling potential fault reactivation, seismicity and CO2 leakage. The model simulations demonstrates that the potential for fault reactivation and the resulting seismic magnitude as well as the potential for creating a leakage path through overburden sealing layers (caprock) depends on a number of parameters such as fault orientation, stress field, and rock properties. The model simulations further demonstrate that seismic events large enough to be felt by humans requires brittle fault properties as well as continuous fault permeability allowing for the pressure to be distributed over a large fault patch to be ruptured at once. Heterogeneous fault properties, which are commonly encountered in faults intersecting multilayered shale/sandstone sequences, effectively reduce the likelihood of inducing felt seismicity and also effectively impede upward CO2 leakage. Site specific model simulations of the In Salah CO2 storage site showed that deep fractured zone responses and associated seismicity occurred in the brittle fractured sandstone reservoir, but at a very substantial reservoir overpressure close to the magnitude of the least principal stress. It is suggested that coupled geomechanical modeling be used to guide the site selection and assisting in identification of locations most prone to unwanted and damaging geomechanical changes, and to evaluate potential consequence of such unwanted geomechanical changes. The geomechanical modeling can be used to better estimate the maximum sustainable injection rate or reservoir pressure and thereby provide for improved CO2 storage security. Whether damaging geomechanical changes could actually occur very much depends on the local stress field and local reservoir properties such the presence of ductile rock and faults (which can aseismically accommodate for the stress and strain induced by the injection) or, on the contrary, the presence of more brittle faults that, if critically stressed for shear, might be more prone to induce felt seismicity.
Calculation and analysis of the non-point source pollution in the upstream watershed of the Panjiakou Reservoir, People's Republic of China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, S.; Tang, L.

2007-05-01

Panjiakou Reservoir is an important drinking water resource in Haihe River Basin, Hebei Province, People's Republic of China. The upstream watershed area is about 35,000 square kilometers. Recently, the water pollution in the reservoir is becoming more serious owing to the non-point pollution as well as point source pollution on the upstream watershed. To effectively manage the reservoir and watershed and develop a plan to reduce pollutant loads, the loading of non-point and point pollution and their distribution on the upstream watershed must be understood fully. The SWAT model is used to simulate the production and transportation of the non-point source pollutants in the upstream watershed of the Panjiakou Reservoir. The loadings of non-point source pollutants are calculated for different hydrologic years and the spatial and temporal characteristics of non-point source pollution are studied. The stream network and topographic characteristics of the stream network and sub-basins are all derived from the DEM by ArcGIS software. The soil and land use data are reclassified and the soil physical properties database file is created for the model. The SWAT model was calibrated with observed data of several hydrologic monitoring stations in the study area. The results of the calibration show that the model performs fairly well. Then the calibrated model was used to calculate the loadings of non-point source pollutants for a wet year, a normal year and a dry year respectively. The time and space distribution of flow, sediment and non-point source pollution were analyzed depending on the simulated results. The comparison of different hydrologic years on calculation results is dramatic. The loading of non-point source pollution in the wet year is relatively larger but smaller in the dry year since the non-point source pollutants are mainly transported through the runoff. The pollution loading within a year is mainly produced in the flood season. Because SWAT is a distributed model, it is possible to view model output as it varies across the basin, so the critical areas and reaches can be found in the study area. According to the simulation results, it is found that different land uses can yield different results and fertilization in rainy season has an important impact on the non- point source pollution. The limitations of the SWAT model are also discussed and the measures of the control and prevention of non- point source pollution for Panjiakou Reservoir are presented according to the analysis of model calculation results.
Development of a Precipitation-Runoff Model to Simulate Unregulated Streamflow in the Salmon Creek Basin, Okanogan County, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

van Heeswijk, Marijke

2006-01-01

Surface water has been diverted from the Salmon Creek Basin for irrigation purposes since the early 1900s, when the Bureau of Reclamation built the Okanogan Project. Spring snowmelt runoff is stored in two reservoirs, Conconully Reservoir and Salmon Lake Reservoir, and gradually released during the growing season. As a result of the out-of-basin streamflow diversions, the lower 4.3 miles of Salmon Creek typically has been a dry creek bed for almost 100 years, except during the spring snowmelt season during years of high runoff. To continue meeting the water needs of irrigators but also leave water in lower Salmon Creek for fish passage and to help restore the natural ecosystem, changes are being considered in how the Okanogan Project is operated. This report documents development of a precipitation-runoff model for the Salmon Creek Basin that can be used to simulate daily unregulated streamflows. The precipitation-runoff model is a component of a Decision Support System (DSS) that includes a water-operations model the Bureau of Reclamation plans to develop to study the water resources of the Salmon Creek Basin. The DSS will be similar to the DSS that the Bureau of Reclamation and the U.S. Geological Survey developed previously for the Yakima River Basin in central southern Washington. The precipitation-runoff model was calibrated for water years 1950-89 and tested for water years 1990-96. The model was used to simulate daily streamflows that were aggregated on a monthly basis and calibrated against historical monthly streamflows for Salmon Creek at Conconully Dam. Additional calibration data were provided by the snowpack water-equivalent record for a SNOTEL station in the basin. Model input time series of daily precipitation and minimum and maximum air temperatures were based on data from climate stations in the study area. Historical records of unregulated streamflow for Salmon Creek at Conconully Dam do not exist for water years 1950-96. Instead, estimates of historical monthly mean unregulated streamflow based on reservoir outflows and storage changes were used as a surrogate for the missing data and to calibrate and test the model. The estimated unregulated streamflows were corrected for evaporative losses from Conconully Reservoir (about 1 ft3/s) and ground-water losses from the basin (about 2 ft3/s). The total of the corrections was about 9 percent of the mean uncorrected streamflow of 32.2 ft3/s (23,300 acre-ft/yr) for water years 1949-96. For the calibration period, the basinwide mean annual evapotranspiration was simulated to be 19.1 inches, or about 83 percent of the mean annual precipitation of 23.1 inches. Model calibration and testing indicated that the daily streamflows simulated using the precipitation-runoff model should be used only to analyze historical and forecasted annual mean and April-July mean streamflows for Salmon Creek at Conconully Dam. Because of the paucity of model input data and uncertainty in the estimated unregulated streamflows, the model is not adequately calibrated and tested to estimate monthly mean streamflows for individual months, such as during low-flow periods, or for shorter periods such as during peak flows. No data were available to test the accuracy of simulated streamflows for lower Salmon Creek. As a result, simulated streamflows for lower Salmon Creek should be used with caution. For the calibration period (water years 1950-89), both the simulated mean annual streamflow and the simulated mean April-July streamflow compared well with the estimated uncorrected unregulated streamflow (UUS) and corrected unregulated streamflow (CUS). The simulated mean annual streamflow exceeded UUS by 5.9 percent and was less than CUS by 2.7 percent. Similarly, the simulated mean April-July streamflow exceeded UUS by 1.8 percent and was less than CUS by 3.1 percent. However, streamflow was significantly undersimulated during the low-flow, baseflow-dominated months of November through F
Field-based simulation of a demonstration site for carbon dioxide sequestration in low-permeability saline aquifers in the Ordos Basin, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, Jian; Zhang, Keni; Hu, Litang; Pavelic, Paul; Wang, Yongsheng; Chen, Maoshan

2015-11-01

Saline formations are considered to be candidates for carbon sequestration due to their great depths, large storage volumes, and widespread occurrence. However, injecting carbon dioxide into low-permeability reservoirs is challenging. An active demonstration project for carbon dioxide sequestration in the Ordos Basin, China, began in 2010. The site is characterized by a deep, multi-layered saline reservoir with permeability mostly below 1.0 × 10-14 m2. Field observations so far suggest that only small-to-moderate pressure buildup has taken place due to injection. The Triassic Liujiagou sandstone at the top of the reservoir has surprisingly high injectivity and accepts approximately 80 % of the injected mass at the site. Based on these key observations, a three-dimensional numerical model was developed and applied, to predict the plume dynamics and pressure propagation, and in the assessment of storage safety. The model is assembled with the most recent data and the simulations are calibrated to the latest available observations. The model explains most of the observed phenomena at the site. With the current operation scheme, the CO2 plume at the uppermost reservoir would reach a lateral distance of 658 m by the end of the project in 2015, and approximately 1,000 m after 100 years since injection. The resulting pressure buildup in the reservoir was below 5 MPa, far below the threshold to cause fracturing of the sealing cap (around 33 MPa).
A new method for calculation of water saturation in shale gas reservoirs using V P -to-V S ratio and porosity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Kun; Sun, Jianmeng; Zhang, Hongpan; Liu, Haitao; Chen, Xiangyang

2018-02-01

Total water saturation is an important parameter for calculating the free gas content of shale gas reservoirs. Owing to the limitations of the Archie formula and its extended solutions in zones rich in organic or conductive minerals, a new method was proposed to estimate total water saturation according to the relationship between total water saturation, V P -to-V S ratio and total porosity. Firstly, the ranges of the relevant parameters in the viscoelastic BISQ model in shale gas reservoirs were estimated. Then, the effects of relevant parameters on the V P -to-V S ratio were simulated based on the partially saturated viscoelastic BISQ model. These parameters were total water saturation, total porosity, permeability, characteristic squirt-flow length, fluid viscosity and sonic frequency. The simulation results showed that the main factors influencing V P -to-V S ratio were total porosity and total water saturation. When the permeability and the characteristic squirt-flow length changed slightly for a particular shale gas reservoir, their influences could be neglected. Then an empirical equation for total water saturation with respect to total porosity and V P -to-V S ratio was obtained according to the experimental data. Finally, the new method was successfully applied to estimate total water saturation in a sequence formation of shale gas reservoirs. Practical applications have shown good agreement with the results calculated by the Archie model.
Estimation of reservoir inflow in data scarce region by using Sacramento rainfall runoff model - A case study for Sittaung River Basin, Myanmar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Myo Lin, Nay; Rutten, Martine

2017-04-01

The Sittaung River is one of four major rivers in Myanmar. This river basin is developing fast and facing problems with flood, sedimentation, river bank erosion and salt intrusion. At present, more than 20 numbers of reservoirs have already been constructed for multiple purposes such as irrigation, domestic water supply, hydro-power generation, and flood control. The rainfall runoff models are required for the operational management of this reservoir system. In this study, the river basin is divided into (64) sub-catchments and the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting (SAC-SMA) models are developed by using satellite rainfall and Geographic Information System (GIS) data. The SAC-SMA model has sixteen calibration parameters, and also uses a unit hydrograph for surface flow routing. The Sobek software package is used for SAC-SMA modelling and simulation of river system. The models are calibrated and tested by using observed discharge and water level data. The statistical results show that the model is applicable to use for data scarce region. Keywords: Sacramento, Sobek, rainfall runoff, reservoir
Quantifying human impact on hydrological drought using an Earth System Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Huijgevoort, Marjolein; Chaney, Nathaniel; Malyshev, Sergey; Shevliakova, Elena; Milly, Chris

2017-04-01

Predicting the human impact on the present and future hydrological cycle remains a significant scientific challenge. Anthropogenic impact includes water management practices like diverting water for irrigation, abstraction of groundwater, and reservoirs. Hydrological extremes, in particular, are heavily affected by water management practices, due to the existing stress on the system during droughts and floods. Therefore, to prepare adaptation plans for hydrological extremes in the future, it is essential to account for water management and other human influences in Earth System Models. In this study we have implemented water management practices in the state-of-the-art GFDL land model, which includes terrestrial water, energy, and carbon balances. Both irrigation practices and reservoirs have been added in the land surface model component of the model. Irrigation amounts are determined from the soil water balance, the evaporative demand of the vegetation and fractional coverage of croplands. The resulting water demand is fulfilled by abstractions from surface water and groundwater. Reservoir outflow is dynamically coupled to the downstream water demand and available reservoir storage. Retrospective model simulations over the contiguous United States indicate a strong human influence on hydrological drought. A water management attribution analysis shows a significant impact on the water availability, mostly in the Midwest of the United States and California. Implementation of reservoirs alters the flow regime, thereby decreasing the short-term drought impact, however, in the case of multi-year drought, impacts are delayed due to the dependency on the reservoir outflow. Irrigation, on the other hand, decreases the water availability in rivers due to increased evapotranspiration leading to a higher drought impact. The average increase in evapotranspiration amounted up to 2 mm/day for cropland areas in California and Texas. Overall, the results show the importance of including water management in global scale models. This new modelling framework can be used to understand how humans will impact future water availability, water scarcity, and drought. Next steps will include coupled model simulations to investigate the human impact on feedbacks in land-atmosphere interactions.
Modelling of Reservoir Operations using Fuzzy Logic and ANNs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van De Giesen, N.; Coerver, B.; Rutten, M.

2015-12-01

Today, almost 40.000 large reservoirs, containing approximately 6.000 km3 of water and inundating an area of almost 400.000 km2, can be found on earth. Since these reservoirs have a storage capacity of almost one-sixth of the global annual river discharge they have a large impact on the timing, volume and peaks of river discharges. Global Hydrological Models (GHM) are thus significantly influenced by these anthropogenic changes in river flows. We developed a parametrically parsimonious method to extract operational rules based on historical reservoir storage and inflow time-series. Managing a reservoir is an imprecise and vague undertaking. Operators always face uncertainties about inflows, evaporation, seepage losses and various water demands to be met. They often base their decisions on experience and on available information, like reservoir storage and the previous periods inflow. We modeled this decision-making process through a combination of fuzzy logic and artificial neural networks in an Adaptive-Network-based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS). In a sensitivity analysis, we compared results for reservoirs in Vietnam, Central Asia and the USA. ANFIS can indeed capture reservoirs operations adequately when fed with a historical monthly time-series of inflows and storage. It was shown that using ANFIS, operational rules of existing reservoirs can be derived without much prior knowledge about the reservoirs. Their validity was tested by comparing actual and simulated releases with each other. For the eleven reservoirs modelled, the normalised outflow, <0,1>, was predicted with a MSE of 0.002 to 0.044. The rules can be incorporated into GHMs. After a network for a specific reservoir has been trained, the inflow calculated by the hydrological model can be combined with the release and initial storage to calculate the storage for the next time-step using a mass balance. Subsequently, the release can be predicted one time-step ahead using the inflow and storage.
BOAST 2 for the IBM 3090 and RISC 6000

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hebert, P.; Bourgoyne, A. T., Jr.; Tyler, J.

1993-05-01

BOAST 2 simulates isothermal, darcy flow in three dimensions. It assumes that reservoir liquids can be described in three fluid phases (oil, gas, and water) of constant composition, with physical properties that depend on pressure, only. These reservoir fluid approximations are acceptable for a large percentage of the world's oil and gas reservoirs. Consequently, BOAST 2 has a wide range of applicability. BOAST 2 can simulate oil and/or gas recovery by fluid expansion, displacement, gravity drainage, and capillary imhibition mechanisms. Typical field production problems that BOAST 2 can handle include primary depletion studies, pressure maintenance by water and/or gas injection, and evaluation of secondary recovery waterflooding and displacement operations. Technically, BOAST 2 is a finite, implicit pressure, explicit saturation (IMPES) numerical simulator. It applies both direct and iterative solution techniques for solving systems of algebraic equations. The well model allows specification of rate or pressure constraints on well performance, and the user is free to add or to recomplete wells during the simulation. In addition, the user can define multiple rock and PVT regions and can choose from three aquifer models. BOAST 2 also provides flexible initialization, a bubble-point tracking scheme, automatic time-step control, and a material balance check on solution stability. The user controls output, which includes a run summary and line-printer plots of fieldwide performance.
A global hydrological simulation to specify the sources of water used by humans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hanasaki, Naota; Yoshikawa, Sayaka; Pokhrel, Yadu; Kanae, Shinjiro

2018-01-01

Humans abstract water from various sources to sustain their livelihood and society. Some global hydrological models (GHMs) include explicit schemes of human water abstraction, but the representation and performance of these schemes remain limited. We substantially enhanced the water abstraction schemes of the H08 GHM. This enabled us to estimate water abstraction from six major water sources, namely, river flow regulated by global reservoirs (i.e., reservoirs regulating the flow of the world's major rivers), aqueduct water transfer, local reservoirs, seawater desalination, renewable groundwater, and nonrenewable groundwater. In its standard setup, the model covers the whole globe at a spatial resolution of 0.5° × 0.5°, and the calculation interval is 1 day. All the interactions were simulated in a single computer program, and all water fluxes and storage were strictly traceable at any place and time during the simulation period. A global hydrological simulation was conducted to validate the performance of the model for the period of 1979-2013 (land use was fixed for the year 2000). The simulated water fluxes for water abstraction were validated against those reported in earlier publications and showed a reasonable agreement at the global and country level. The simulated monthly river discharge and terrestrial water storage (TWS) for six of the world's most significantly human-affected river basins were compared with gauge observations and the data derived from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission. It is found that the simulation including the newly added schemes outperformed the simulation without human activities. The simulated results indicated that, in 2000, of the 3628±75 km3 yr-1 global freshwater requirement, 2839±50 km3 yr-1 was taken from surface water and 789±30 km3 yr-1 from groundwater. Streamflow, aqueduct water transfer, local reservoirs, and seawater desalination accounted for 1786±23, 199±10, 106±5, and 1.8±0 km3 yr-1 of the surface water, respectively. The remaining 747±45 km3 yr-1 freshwater requirement was unmet, or surface water was not available when and where it was needed in our simulation. Renewable and nonrenewable groundwater accounted for 607±11 and 182±26 km3 yr-1 of the groundwater total, respectively. Each source differed in its renewability, economic costs for development, and environmental consequences of usage. The model is useful for performing global water resource assessments by considering the aspects of sustainability, economy, and environment.
Coupling large scale hydrologic-reservoir-hydraulic models for impact studies in data sparse regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Loughlin, Fiachra; Neal, Jeff; Wagener, Thorsten; Bates, Paul; Freer, Jim; Woods, Ross; Pianosi, Francesca; Sheffied, Justin

2017-04-01

As hydraulic modelling moves to increasingly large spatial domains it has become essential to take reservoirs and their operations into account. Large-scale hydrological models have been including reservoirs for at least the past two decades, yet they cannot explicitly model the variations in spatial extent of reservoirs, and many reservoirs operations in hydrological models are not undertaken during the run-time operation. This requires a hydraulic model, yet to-date no continental scale hydraulic model has directly simulated reservoirs and their operations. In addition to the need to include reservoirs and their operations in hydraulic models as they move to global coverage, there is also a need to link such models to large scale hydrology models or land surface schemes. This is especially true for Africa where the number of river gauges has consistently declined since the middle of the twentieth century. In this study we address these two major issues by developing: 1) a coupling methodology for the VIC large-scale hydrological model and the LISFLOOD-FP hydraulic model, and 2) a reservoir module for the LISFLOOD-FP model, which currently includes four sets of reservoir operating rules taken from the major large-scale hydrological models. The Volta Basin, West Africa, was chosen to demonstrate the capability of the modelling framework as it is a large river basin ( 400,000 km2) and contains the largest man-made lake in terms of area (8,482 km2), Lake Volta, created by the Akosombo dam. Lake Volta also experiences a seasonal variation in water levels of between two and six metres that creates a dynamic shoreline. In this study, we first run our coupled VIC and LISFLOOD-FP model without explicitly modelling Lake Volta and then compare these results with those from model runs where the dam operations and Lake Volta are included. The results show that we are able to obtain variation in the Lake Volta water levels and that including the dam operations and Lake Volta has significant impacts on the water levels across the domain.
Modelling and scale-up of chemical flooding

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pope, G.A.; Lake, L.W.; Sepehrnoori, K.

1990-03-01

The objective of this research is to develop, validate, and apply a comprehensive chemical flooding simulator for chemical recovery processes involving surfactants, polymers, and alkaline chemicals in various combinations. This integrated program includes components of laboratory experiments, physical property modelling, scale-up theory, and numerical analysis as necessary and integral components of the simulation activity. We have continued to develop, test, and apply our chemical flooding simulator (UTCHEM) to a wide variety of laboratory and reservoir problems involving tracers, polymers, polymer gels, surfactants, and alkaline agents. Part I is an update on the Application of Higher-Order Methods in Chemical Flooding Simulation.more » This update focuses on the comparison of grid orientation effects for four different numerical methods implemented in UTCHEM. Part II is on Simulation Design Studies and is a continuation of Saad's Big Muddy surfactant pilot simulation study reported last year. Part III reports on the Simulation of Gravity Effects under conditions similar to those of some of the oil reservoirs in the North Sea. Part IV is on Determining Oil Saturation from Interwell Tracers UTCHEM is used for large-scale interwell tracer tests. A systematic procedure for estimating oil saturation from interwell tracer data is developed and a specific example based on the actual field data provided by Sun E P Co. is given. Part V reports on the Application of Vectorization and Microtasking for Reservoir Simulation. Part VI reports on Alkaline Simulation. The alkaline/surfactant/polymer flood compositional simulator (UTCHEM) reported last year is further extended to include reactions involving chemical species containing magnesium, aluminium and silicon as constituent elements. Part VII reports on permeability and trapping of microemulsion.« less
Hydrogeology, water quality, and ground-water development alternatives in the Beaver-Pasquiset ground-water reservoir, Rhode Island

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dickerman, D.C.; Ozbilgin, M.M.

1985-01-01

In a 23 sq mi study area, the Beaver-Pasquiset groundwater reservoir within the Pawcatuck River basin in southern Rhode Island, stratified drift is the only principal geologic unit capable of producing yields > 350 gal/min. Transmissivity of the aquifer ranges from 7,200 to 24,300 sq ft/day. Water table conditions prevail in the aquifer, which is in good hydraulic connection with perennial streams and ponds. A digital model of two-dimensional groundwater flow was used to simulate the interaction between surface water and groundwater, and to evaluate the impact of alternative schemes of groundwater development on groundwater levels, pond levels, and streamflow in the Beaver-Pasquiset groundwater reservoir. Transient simulations of theoretical pumpage were made for a drought period (1963-66) and a wet period (1976-78). The areas most favorable for development of high-capacity wells (350 gal/min or more) are along the Beaver River and near Pasquiset Pond. The water is soft and generally contains < 100 mg/L dissolved solids. Locally, groundwater contains elevated concentrations of iron and manganese (7.5 and 3.7 mg/L, respectively), southeast of Pasquiset Pond, and will require treatment if used for public supply. The groundwater reservoir was simulated with a two-dimensional finite-difference model using a block-centered grid consisting of 33 rows and 75 columns. Differences between measured and simulated water table altitudes for the final steady state run for 21 selected observation wells averaged +0.07 ft. Combined pumping rates for simulation of groundwater development alternatives at eight sites ranged from 3.25 to 7.00 Mgal/d. Pumping rates for individual wells ranged from 0.25 to 1.50 Mgal/d. Transient simulations suggest that the Beaver-Pasquiset groundwater reservoir is capable of sustaining a pumping rate of 4.25 Mgal/d during years of average groundwater recharge with minimal impact on groundwater levels, pond levels, and streamflow. During extreme drought periods (1965 and 1966) it would be necessary to reduce pumpage below 3.25 Mgal/d to maintain flow in both the Beaver River and Pasquiset Brook. (Author 's abstract)
Modeling CO2 Storage in Fractured Reservoirs: Fracture-Matrix Interactions of Free-Phase and Dissolved CO2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oldenburg, C. M.; Zhou, Q.; Birkholzer, J. T.

2017-12-01

The injection of supercritical CO2 (scCO2) in fractured reservoirs has been conducted at several storage sites. However, no site-specific dual-continuum modeling for fractured reservoirs has been reported and modeling studies have generally underestimated the fracture-matrix interactions. We developed a conceptual model for enhanced CO2 storage to take into account global scCO2 migration in the fracture continuum, local storage of scCO2 and dissolved CO2 (dsCO2) in the matrix continuum, and driving forces for scCO2 invasion and dsCO2 diffusion from fractures. High-resolution discrete fracture-matrix models were developed for a column of idealized matrix blocks bounded by vertical and horizontal fractures and for a km-scale fractured reservoir. The column-scale simulation results show that equilibrium storage efficiency strongly depends on matrix entry capillary pressure and matrix-matrix connectivity while the time scale to reach equilibrium is sensitive to fracture spacing and matrix flow properties. The reservoir-scale modeling results shows that the preferential migration of scCO2 through fractures is coupled with bulk storage in the rock matrix that in turn retards the fracture scCO2 plume. We also developed unified-form diffusive flux equations to account for dsCO2 storage in brine-filled matrix blocks and found solubility trapping is significant in fractured reservoirs with low-permeability matrix.
Integrating a reservoir regulation scheme into a spatially distributed hydrological model

DOE PAGES

Zhao, Gang; Gao, Huili; Naz, Bibi S; ...

2016-10-14

During the past several decades, numerous reservoirs have been built across the world for a variety of purposes such as flood control, irrigation, municipal/industrial water supplies, and hydropower generation. Consequently, timing and magnitude of natural streamflows have been altered significantly by reservoir operations. In addition, the hydrological cycle can be modified by land-use/land-cover and climate changes. To understand the fine-scale feedback between hydrological processes and water management decisions, a distributed hydrological model embedded with a reservoir component is desired. In this study, a multi-purpose reservoir module with predefined complex operational rules was integrated into the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Modelmore » (DHSVM). Conditional operating rules, which are designed to reduce flood risk and enhance water supply reliability, were adopted in this module. The performance of the integrated model was tested over the upper Brazos River Basin in Texas, where two U.S. Army Corps of Engineers reservoirs, Lake Whitney and Aquilla Lake, are located. The integrated DHSVM was calibrated and validated using observed reservoir inflow, outflow, and storage data. The error statistics were summarized for both reservoirs on a daily, weekly, and monthly basis. Using the weekly reservoir storage for Lake Whitney as an example, the coefficient of determination (R 2) and the Nash-Sutcliff Efficiency (NSE) were 0.85 and 0.75, respectively. These results suggest that this reservoir module holds promise for use in sub-monthly hydrological simulations. Furthermore, with the new reservoir component, the DHSVM provides a platform to support adaptive water resources management under the impacts of evolving anthropogenic activities and substantial environmental changes.« less

Integrating a reservoir regulation scheme into a spatially distributed hydrological model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhao, Gang; Gao, Huili; Naz, Bibi S

During the past several decades, numerous reservoirs have been built across the world for a variety of purposes such as flood control, irrigation, municipal/industrial water supplies, and hydropower generation. Consequently, timing and magnitude of natural streamflows have been altered significantly by reservoir operations. In addition, the hydrological cycle can be modified by land-use/land-cover and climate changes. To understand the fine-scale feedback between hydrological processes and water management decisions, a distributed hydrological model embedded with a reservoir component is desired. In this study, a multi-purpose reservoir module with predefined complex operational rules was integrated into the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Modelmore » (DHSVM). Conditional operating rules, which are designed to reduce flood risk and enhance water supply reliability, were adopted in this module. The performance of the integrated model was tested over the upper Brazos River Basin in Texas, where two U.S. Army Corps of Engineers reservoirs, Lake Whitney and Aquilla Lake, are located. The integrated DHSVM was calibrated and validated using observed reservoir inflow, outflow, and storage data. The error statistics were summarized for both reservoirs on a daily, weekly, and monthly basis. Using the weekly reservoir storage for Lake Whitney as an example, the coefficient of determination (R 2) and the Nash-Sutcliff Efficiency (NSE) were 0.85 and 0.75, respectively. These results suggest that this reservoir module holds promise for use in sub-monthly hydrological simulations. Furthermore, with the new reservoir component, the DHSVM provides a platform to support adaptive water resources management under the impacts of evolving anthropogenic activities and substantial environmental changes.« less
Investigation of uncertainty in CO 2 reservoir models: A sensitivity analysis of relative permeability parameter values

DOE PAGES

Yoshida, Nozomu; Levine, Jonathan S.; Stauffer, Philip H.

2016-03-22

Numerical reservoir models of CO 2 injection in saline formations rely on parameterization of laboratory-measured pore-scale processes. Here, we have performed a parameter sensitivity study and Monte Carlo simulations to determine the normalized change in total CO 2 injected using the finite element heat and mass-transfer code (FEHM) numerical reservoir simulator. Experimentally measured relative permeability parameter values were used to generate distribution functions for parameter sampling. The parameter sensitivity study analyzed five different levels for each of the relative permeability model parameters. All but one of the parameters changed the CO 2 injectivity by <10%, less than the geostatistical uncertainty that applies to all large subsurface systems due to natural geophysical variability and inherently small sample sizes. The exception was the end-point CO 2 relative permeability, kmore » $$0\\atop{r}$$ CO2, the maximum attainable effective CO 2 permeability during CO 2 invasion, which changed CO2 injectivity by as much as 80%. Similarly, Monte Carlo simulation using 1000 realizations of relative permeability parameters showed no relationship between CO 2 injectivity and any of the parameters but k$$0\\atop{r}$$ CO2, which had a very strong (R 2 = 0.9685) power law relationship with total CO 2 injected. Model sensitivity to k$$0\\atop{r}$$ CO2 points to the importance of accurate core flood and wettability measurements.« less
Investigation of uncertainty in CO 2 reservoir models: A sensitivity analysis of relative permeability parameter values

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yoshida, Nozomu; Levine, Jonathan S.; Stauffer, Philip H.

Numerical reservoir models of CO 2 injection in saline formations rely on parameterization of laboratory-measured pore-scale processes. Here, we have performed a parameter sensitivity study and Monte Carlo simulations to determine the normalized change in total CO 2 injected using the finite element heat and mass-transfer code (FEHM) numerical reservoir simulator. Experimentally measured relative permeability parameter values were used to generate distribution functions for parameter sampling. The parameter sensitivity study analyzed five different levels for each of the relative permeability model parameters. All but one of the parameters changed the CO 2 injectivity by <10%, less than the geostatistical uncertainty that applies to all large subsurface systems due to natural geophysical variability and inherently small sample sizes. The exception was the end-point CO 2 relative permeability, kmore » $$0\\atop{r}$$ CO2, the maximum attainable effective CO 2 permeability during CO 2 invasion, which changed CO2 injectivity by as much as 80%. Similarly, Monte Carlo simulation using 1000 realizations of relative permeability parameters showed no relationship between CO 2 injectivity and any of the parameters but k$$0\\atop{r}$$ CO2, which had a very strong (R 2 = 0.9685) power law relationship with total CO 2 injected. Model sensitivity to k$$0\\atop{r}$$ CO2 points to the importance of accurate core flood and wettability measurements.« less
Forecasting of dissolved oxygen in the Guanting reservoir using an optimized NGBM (1,1) model.

PubMed

An, Yan; Zou, Zhihong; Zhao, Yanfei

2015-03-01

An optimized nonlinear grey Bernoulli model was proposed by using a particle swarm optimization algorithm to solve the parameter optimization problem. In addition, each item in the first-order accumulated generating sequence was set in turn as an initial condition to determine which alternative would yield the highest forecasting accuracy. To test the forecasting performance, the optimized models with different initial conditions were then used to simulate dissolved oxygen concentrations in the Guanting reservoir inlet and outlet (China). The empirical results show that the optimized model can remarkably improve forecasting accuracy, and the particle swarm optimization technique is a good tool to solve parameter optimization problems. What's more, the optimized model with an initial condition that performs well in in-sample simulation may not do as well as in out-of-sample forecasting. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.
Importance of the predator's ecological neighborhood in modeling predation on migrating prey

USGS Publications Warehouse

DeAngelis, Donald L.; Petersen, James H.

2001-01-01

Most mathematical descriptions of predator-prey interactions fail to take into account the spatio-temporal structures of the populations, which can lead to errors or misinterpretations. For example, a compact pulse of prey migrating through a field of quasi-stationary predators may not be well described by standard predator-prey models, because the predators and prey are unlikely to be well mixed; that is, the prey may be exposed to only a fraction of the predator population at a time. This underscores the importance of properly accounting for the ecological neighborhood, or effective feeding range, of predators in models. We illustrate this situation with a series of models of salmon smolts migrating through a reservoir arrayed with predators. The reservoir is divided into a number of longitudinal compartments or spatial cells, the length of each cell representing the upstream-downstream range over which predators can forage. In this series of models a 100-km-long reservoir is divided, successively into 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 200, and 400 cells, with respective cell lengths of 50, 20, 10, 4, 2, 1, 0.5, and 0.25 km. We used a detailed individual-based simulation model at first, but to ensure robustness of results we supplemented this with a simple analytic model. Both models showed sharp differences in the predicted mortality to a compact pulse of smolt prey moving through the reservoir, depending on the number of spatial cells in the model. In particular, models with fewer than about 10 cells vastly overpredicted the amount of mortality due to predators with activity ranges of not more than a few kilometers. These results corroborate recent theoretical and simulation studies on the importance of spatial scale and behavior in modeling predator-prey dynamics.
Discrete fracture modeling of multiphase flow and hydrocarbon production in fractured shale or low permeability reservoirs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hao, Y.; Settgast, R. R.; Fu, P.; Tompson, A. F. B.; Morris, J.; Ryerson, F. J.

2016-12-01

It has long been recognized that multiphase flow and transport in fractured porous media is very important for various subsurface applications. Hydrocarbon fluid flow and production from hydraulically fractured shale reservoirs is an important and complicated example of multiphase flow in fractured formations. The combination of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing is able to create extensive fracture networks in low permeability shale rocks, leading to increased formation permeability and enhanced hydrocarbon production. However, unconventional wells experience a much faster production decline than conventional hydrocarbon recovery. Maintaining sustainable and economically viable shale gas/oil production requires additional wells and re-fracturing. Excessive fracturing fluid loss during hydraulic fracturing operations may also drive up operation costs and raise potential environmental concerns. Understanding and modeling processes that contribute to decreasing productivity and fracturing fluid loss represent a critical component for unconventional hydrocarbon recovery analysis. Towards this effort we develop a discrete fracture model (DFM) in GEOS (LLNL multi-physics computational code) to simulate multiphase flow and transfer in hydraulically fractured reservoirs. The DFM model is able to explicitly account for both individual fractures and their surrounding rocks, therefore allowing for an accurate prediction of impacts of fracture-matrix interactions on hydrocarbon production. We apply the DFM model to simulate three-phase (water, oil, and gas) flow behaviors in fractured shale rocks as a result of different hydraulic stimulation scenarios. Numerical results show that multiphase flow behaviors at the fracture-matrix interface play a major role in controlling both hydrocarbon production and fracturing fluid recovery rates. The DFM model developed in this study will be coupled with the existing hydro-fracture model to provide a fully integrated geomechanical and reservoir simulation capability for an accurate prediction and assessment of hydrocarbon production and hydraulic fracturing performance. This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344.
Micro/Nano-pore Network Analysis of Gas Flow in Shale Matrix

PubMed Central

Zhang, Pengwei; Hu, Liming; Meegoda, Jay N.; Gao, Shengyan

2015-01-01

The gas flow in shale matrix is of great research interests for optimized shale gas extraction. The gas flow in the nano-scale pore may fall in flow regimes such as viscous flow, slip flow and Knudsen diffusion. A 3-dimensional nano-scale pore network model was developed to simulate dynamic gas flow, and to describe the transient properties of flow regimes. The proposed pore network model accounts for the various size distributions and low connectivity of shale pores. The pore size, pore throat size and coordination number obey normal distribution, and the average values can be obtained from shale reservoir data. The gas flow regimes were simulated using an extracted pore network backbone. The numerical results show that apparent permeability is strongly dependent on pore pressure in the reservoir and pore throat size, which is overestimated by low-pressure laboratory tests. With the decrease of reservoir pressure, viscous flow is weakening, then slip flow and Knudsen diffusion are gradually becoming dominant flow regimes. The fingering phenomenon can be predicted by micro/nano-pore network for gas flow, which provides an effective way to capture heterogeneity of shale gas reservoir. PMID:26310236
Micro/Nano-pore Network Analysis of Gas Flow in Shale Matrix.

PubMed

Zhang, Pengwei; Hu, Liming; Meegoda, Jay N; Gao, Shengyan

2015-08-27

The gas flow in shale matrix is of great research interests for optimized shale gas extraction. The gas flow in the nano-scale pore may fall in flow regimes such as viscous flow, slip flow and Knudsen diffusion. A 3-dimensional nano-scale pore network model was developed to simulate dynamic gas flow, and to describe the transient properties of flow regimes. The proposed pore network model accounts for the various size distributions and low connectivity of shale pores. The pore size, pore throat size and coordination number obey normal distribution, and the average values can be obtained from shale reservoir data. The gas flow regimes were simulated using an extracted pore network backbone. The numerical results show that apparent permeability is strongly dependent on pore pressure in the reservoir and pore throat size, which is overestimated by low-pressure laboratory tests. With the decrease of reservoir pressure, viscous flow is weakening, then slip flow and Knudsen diffusion are gradually becoming dominant flow regimes. The fingering phenomenon can be predicted by micro/nano-pore network for gas flow, which provides an effective way to capture heterogeneity of shale gas reservoir.
Simulated effects of hydrologic, water quality, and land-use changes of the Lake Maumelle watershed, Arkansas, 2004–10

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hart, Rheannon M.; Green, W. Reed; Westerman, Drew A.; Petersen, James C.; DeLanois, Jeanne L.

2012-01-01

Lake Maumelle, located in central Arkansas northwest of the cities of Little Rock and North Little Rock, is one of two principal drinking-water supplies for the Little Rock, and North Little Rock, Arkansas, metropolitan areas. Lake Maumelle and the Maumelle River (its primary tributary) are more pristine than most other reservoirs and streams in the region with 80 percent of the land area in the entire watershed being forested. However, as the Lake Maumelle watershed becomes increasingly more urbanized and timber harvesting becomes more extensive, concerns about the sustainability of the quality of the water supply also have increased. Two hydrodynamic and water-quality models were developed to examine the hydrology and water quality in the Lake Maumelle watershed and changes that might occur as the watershed becomes more urbanized and timber harvesting becomes more extensive. A Hydrologic Simulation Program–FORTRAN watershed model was developed using continuous streamflow and discreet suspended-sediment and water-quality data collected from January 2004 through 2010. A CE–QUAL–W2 model was developed to simulate reservoir hydrodynamics and selected water-quality characteristics using the simulated output from the Hydrologic Simulation Program–FORTRAN model from January 2004 through 2010. The calibrated Hydrologic Simulation Program–FORTRAN model and the calibrated CE–QUAL–W2 model were developed to simulate three land-use scenarios and to examine the potential effects of these land-use changes, as defined in the model, on the water quality of Lake Maumelle during the 2004 through 2010 simulation period. These scenarios included a scenario that simulated conversion of most land in the watershed to forest (scenario 1), a scenario that simulated conversion of potentially developable land to low-intensity urban land use in part of the watershed (scenario 2), and a scenario that simulated timber harvest in part of the watershed (scenario 3). Simulated land-use changes for scenarios 1 and 3 resulted in little (generally less than 10 percent) overall effect on the simulated water quality in the Hydrologic Simulation Program–FORTRAN model. The land-use change of scenario 2 affected subwatersheds that include Bringle, Reece, and Yount Creek tributaries and most other subwatersheds that drain into the northern side of Lake Maumelle; large percent increases in loading rates (generally between 10 and 25 percent) included dissolved nitrite plus nitrate nitrogen, dissolved orthophosphate, total phosphorus, suspended sediment, dissolved ammonia nitrogen, total organic carbon, and fecal coliform bacteria. For scenario 1, the simulated changes in nutrient, suspended sediment, and total organic carbon loads from the Hydrologic Simulation Program–FORTRAN model resulted in very slight (generally less than 10 percent) changes in simulated water quality for Lake Maumelle, relative to the baseline condition. Following lake mixing in the falls of 2006 and 2007, phosphorus and nitrogen concentrations were higher than the baseline condition and chlorophyll a responded accordingly. The increased nutrient and chlorophyll a concentrations in late October and into 2007 were enough to increase concentrations, on average, for the entire simulation period (2004–10). For scenario 2, the simulated changes in nutrient, suspended sediment, total organic carbon, and fecal coliform bacteria loads from the Lake Maumelle watershed resulted in slight changes in simulated water quality for Lake Maumelle, relative to the baseline condition (total nitrogen decreased by 0.01 milligram per liter; dissolved orthophosphate increased by 0.001 milligram per liter; chlorophyll a decreased by 0.1 microgram per liter). The differences in these concentrations are approximately an order of magnitude less than the error between measured and simulated concentrations in the baseline model. During the driest summer in the simulation period (2006), phosphorus and nitrogen concentrations were lower than the baseline condition and chlorophyll a concentrations decreased during the same summer season. The decrease in nitrogen and chlorophyll a concentrations during the dry summer in 2006 was enough to decrease concentrations of these constituents very slightly, on average, for the entire simulation period (2004–10). For scenario 3, the changes in simulated nutrient, suspended sediment, total organic carbon, and fecal coliform bacteria loads from Lake Maumelle watershed resulted in very slight changes in simulated water quality within Lake Maumelle, relative to the baseline condition, for most of the reservoir. Among the implications of the results of the modeling described in this report are those related to scale in both space and time. Spatial scales include limited size and location of land-use changes, their effects on loading rates, and resultant effects on water quality of Lake Maumelle. Temporally, the magnitude of the water-quality changes simulated by the land-use change scenarios over the 7-year period (2004–10) are not necessarily indicative of the changes that could be expected to occur with similar land-use changes persisting over a 20-, 30-, or 40- year period, for example. These implications should be tempered by realization of the described model limitations. The Hydrologic Simulation Program–FORTRAN watershed model was calibrated to streamflow and water-quality data from five streamflow-gaging stations, and in general, these stations characterize a range of subwatershed areas with varying land-use types. The CE–QUAL–W2 reservoir model was calibrated to water-quality data collected during January 2004 through December 2010 at three reservoir stations, representing the upper, middle, and lower sections of the reservoir. In general, the baseline simulation for the Hydrologic Simulation Program–FORTRAN and the CE–QUAL–W2 models matched reasonably well to the measured data. Simulated and measured suspended-sediment concentrations during periods of base flow (streamflows not substantially influenced by runoff) agree reasonably well for Maumelle River at Williams Junction, the station representing the upper end of the watershed (with differences—simulated minus measured value—generally ranging from -15 to 41 milligrams per liter, and percent difference—relative to the measured value—ranging from -99 to 182 percent) and Maumelle River near Wye, the station just above the reservoir at the lower end (differences generally ranging from -20 to 22 milligrams per liter, and percent difference ranging from -100 to 194 percent). In general, water temperature and dissolved-oxygen concentration simulations followed measured seasonal trends for all stations with the largest differences occurring during periods of lowest temperatures or during the periods of lowest measured dissolved-oxygen concentrations. For the CE–QUAL–W2 model, simulated vertical distributions of water temperatures and dissolved-oxygen concentrations agreed with measured vertical distributions over time, even for the most complex water-temperature profiles. Considering the oligotrophic-mesotrophic (low to intermediate primary productivity and associated low nutrient concentrations) condition of Lake Maumelle, simulated algae, phosphorus, and nitrogen concentrations compared well with generally low measured concentrations.
Effect of Discrete Fracture Network Characteristics on the Sustainability of Heat Production in Enhanced Geothermal Reservoirs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riahi, A.; Damjanac, B.

2013-12-01

Viability of an enhanced or engineered geothermal reservoir is determined by the rate of produced fluid at production wells and the rate of temperature drawdown in the reservoir as well as that of the produced fluid. Meeting required targets demands sufficient permeability and flow circulation in a relatively large volume of rock mass. In-situ conditions such overall permeability of the bedrock formation, magnitude and orientation of stresses, and the characteristics of the existing Discrete Fracture Network (DFN) greatly affect sustainable heat production. Because much of the EGS resources are in formations with low permeability, different stimulation techniques are required prior to the production phase to enhance fluid circulation. Shear stimulation or hydro-shearing is the method of injecting a fluid into the reservoir with the aim of increasing the fluid pressure in the naturally fractured rock and inducing shear failure or slip events. This mechanism can enhance the system's permeability through permanent dilatational opening of the sheared fractures. Using a computational modeling approach, the correlation between heat production and DFN statistical characteristics, namely the fracture length distribution, fracture orientation, and also fracture density is studied in this paper. Numerical analyses were completed using two-dimensional distinct element code UDEC (Itasca, 2011), which represents rock masses as an assembly of interacting blocks separated by fractures. UDEC allows for simulation of fracture propagation along the predefined planes only (i.e., the trajectory of the hydraulic fracture is not part of the solution of the problem). Thus, the hydraulic fracture is assumed to be planar, aligned with the direction of the major principal stress. The pre-existing fractures were represented explicitly. They are discontinuities which deform elastically, but also can open and slip (Coulomb slip law) as a function of pressure and total stress changes. The fluid injection into the reservoir during stimulation phase was simulated using a fully coupled hydro-mechanical model. The heat production phase was simulated using a coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical model. In these simulations, both advective heat transfer by fluid flow and the conductive heat transfer within the rock blocks were modeled. The effect of temperature change on stresses and fracture aperture, and thus flow rates was considered. The response of formations with different DFN characteristics are analyzed by evaluating the production rate, produced power, and total energy extracted from the system over a period of five years. By simulating a full cycle of stimulation and production, the numerical modeling approach represents a realistic estimate of evolving permeability and evaluates how stimulation can be beneficial to the production phase. It is believed that these numerical sensitivity studies can provide valuable insight in evaluation of the potential of success of an EGS project, and can be used to better design the operational parameters in order to optimize heat production. Keywords: Numerical modeling, rock mechanics, discrete fracture network, stimulation, engineered geothermal reservoirs, heat production
Development of an alkaline/surfactant/polymer compositional reservoir simulator

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bhuyan, D.

1989-01-01

The mathematical formulation of a generalized three-dimensional compositional reservoir simulator for high-pH chemical flooding processes is presented in this work. The model assumes local thermodynamic equilibrium with respect to both reaction chemistry and phase behavior and calculates equilibrium electrolyte and phase compositions as a function of time and position. The reaction chemistry considers aqueous electrolytic chemistry, precipitation/dissolution of minerals, ion exchange reactions on matrix surface, reaction of acidic components of crude oil with the bases in the aqueous solution and cation exchange reactions with the micelles. The simulator combines this detailed reaction chemistry associated with these processes with the extensivemore » physical and flow property modeling schemes of an existing chemical flood simulator (UTCHEM) to model the multiphase, multidimensional displacement processes. The formulation of the chemical equilibrium model is quite general and is adaptable to simulate a variety of chemical descriptions. In addition to its use in the simulation of high-pH chemical flooding processes, the model will find application in the simulation of other reactive flow problems like the ground water contamination, reinjection of produced water, chemical waste disposal, etc. in one, two or three dimensions and under multiphase flow conditions. In this work, the model is used to simulate several hypothetical cases of high-pH chemical floods, which include cases from a simple alkaline preflush of a micellar/polymer flood to surfactant enhanced alkaline-polymer flooding and the results are analyzed. Finally, a few published alkaline, alkaline-polymer and surfactant-alkaline-polymer corefloods are simulated and compared with the experimental results.« less
A Drought Early Warning System Using System Dynamics Model and Seasonal Climate Forecasts: a case study in Hsinchu, Taiwan.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tien, Yu-Chuan; Tung, Ching-Ping; Liu, Tzu-Ming; Lin, Chia-Yu

2016-04-01

In the last twenty years, Hsinchu, a county of Taiwan, has experienced a tremendous growth in water demand due to the development of Hsinchu Science Park. In order to fulfill the water demand, the government has built the new reservoir, Baoshan second reservoir. However, short term droughts still happen. One of the reasons is that the water level of the reservoirs in Hsinchu cannot be reasonably forecasted, which sometimes even underestimates the severity of drought. The purpose of this study is to build a drought early warning system that projects the water levels of two important reservoirs, Baoshan and Baoshan second reservoir, and also the spatial distribution of water shortagewith the lead time of three months. Furthermore, this study also attempts to assist the government to improve water resources management. Hence, a system dynamics model of Touchien River, which is the most important river for public water supply in Hsinchu, is developed. The model consists of several important subsystems, including two reservoirs, water treatment plants and agricultural irrigation districts. Using the upstream flow generated by seasonal weather forecasting data, the model is able to simulate the storage of the two reservoirs and the distribution of water shortage. Moreover, the model can also provide the information under certain emergency scenarios, such as the accident or failure of a water treatment plant. At last, the performance of the proposed method and the original water resource management method that the government used were also compared. Keyword: Water Resource Management, Hydrology, Seasonal Climate Forecast, Reservoir, Early Warning, Drought
CE-QUAL-W2 Modeling of Head-of-Reservoir Conditions at Shasta Reservoir, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clancey, K. M.; Saito, L.; Svoboda, C.; Bender, M. D.; Hannon, J.

2014-12-01

Restoration of Chinook salmon and steelhead is a priority in the Sacramento River Basin since they were listed under the Endangered Species Act in 1989 and 1998, respectively. Construction of Shasta Dam and Reservoir obstructed fish migration, resulting in severe population declines. Efforts have been undertaken to restore the fisheries, including evaluation of opportunities for reintroducing Chinook salmon upstream of the dam and providing juvenile fish passage downstream past Shasta Dam. Shasta Reservoir and the Sacramento River and McCloud River tributaries have been modeled with CE-QUAL-W2 (W2) to assess hydrodynamic and temperature conditions with and without surface curtains to be deployed in the tributaries. Expected head-of-reservoir tributary conditions of temperature and water depth are being simulated under dry, median and wet year conditions. Model output is analyzed during months of downstream migration of fish from upstream Sacramento and McCloud River tributaries. W2 will be used to determine presence of favorable conditions for juvenile rearing with proposed surface temperature curtains. Evaluation of favorable conditions for fish includes assessment of water temperature, velocities, and depth. Preliminary results for head-of-reservoir conditions and the influence of temperature curtains modeled with W2 will be presented. Study findings may assist in formulation of juvenile fish passage alternatives for Shasta Lake.
Architecture Controls on Reservoir Performance of Zubair Formation, Rumaila and West Qurna Oilfields in the Southern Iraq

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Al-Ziayyir, Haitham; Hodgetts, David

2015-04-01

The main reservoir in Rumaila /West Qurna oilfields is the Zubair Formation of Hautervian and Barremian age. This silicilastic formation extends over the regions of central and southern Iraq. This study attempts to improve the understanding of the architectural elements and their control on fluid flow paths within the Zubair Formation. A significant source of uncertainty in the zubair formation is the control on hydrodynamic pressure distribution. The reasons for pressure variation in the Zubair are not well understood. This work aims to reduce this uncertainty by providing a more detailed knowledge of reservoir architecture, distribution of barriers and baffles, and reservoir compartmentalization. To characterize the stratigraphic architecture of the Zubair formation,high resolution reservoir models that incorporate dynamic and static data were built. Facies modelling is accomplished by means of stochastic modelling techniques.The work is based on a large data set collected from the Rumaila oilfields. These data, comprising conventional logs of varying vintages, NMR logs, cores from six wells, and pressure data, were used for performing geological and petrophysical analyses.Flow simulation studies have also been applied to examine the impact of architecture on recovery. Understanding of geology and reservoir performance can be greatly improved by using an efficient, quick and viable integrated analysis, interpretation, and modelling.
QUANTITATIVE METHODS FOR RESERVOIR CHARACTERIZATION AND IMPROVED RECOVERY: APPLICATION TO HEAVY OIL SANDS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

James W. Castle; Fred J. Molz; Ronald W. Falta

2002-10-30

Improved prediction of interwell reservoir heterogeneity has the potential to increase productivity and to reduce recovery cost for California's heavy oil sands, which contain approximately 2.3 billion barrels of remaining reserves in the Temblor Formation and in other formations of the San Joaquin Valley. This investigation involves application of advanced analytical property-distribution methods conditioned to continuous outcrop control for improved reservoir characterization and simulation, particularly in heavy oil sands. The investigation was performed in collaboration with Chevron Production Company U.S.A. as an industrial partner, and incorporates data from the Temblor Formation in Chevron's West Coalinga Field. Observations of lateral variabilitymore » and vertical sequences observed in Temblor Formation outcrops has led to a better understanding of reservoir geology in West Coalinga Field. Based on the characteristics of stratigraphic bounding surfaces in the outcrops, these surfaces were identified in the subsurface using cores and logs. The bounding surfaces were mapped and then used as reference horizons in the reservoir modeling. Facies groups and facies tracts were recognized from outcrops and cores of the Temblor Formation and were applied to defining the stratigraphic framework and facies architecture for building 3D geological models. The following facies tracts were recognized: incised valley, estuarine, tide- to wave-dominated shoreline, diatomite, and subtidal. A new minipermeameter probe, which has important advantages over previous methods of measuring outcrop permeability, was developed during this project. The device, which measures permeability at the distal end of a small drillhole, avoids surface weathering effects and provides a superior seal compared with previous methods for measuring outcrop permeability. The new probe was used successfully for obtaining a high-quality permeability data set from an outcrop in southern Utah. Results obtained from analyzing the fractal structure of permeability data collected from the southern Utah outcrop and from core permeability data provided by Chevron from West Coalinga Field were used in distributing permeability values in 3D reservoir models. Spectral analyses and the Double Trace Moment method (Lavallee et al., 1991) were used to analyze the scaling and multifractality of permeability data from cores from West Coalinga Field. T2VOC, which is a numerical flow simulator capable of modeling multiphase, multi-component, nonisothermal flow, was used to model steam injection and oil production for a portion of section 36D in West Coalinga Field. The layer structure and permeability distributions of different models, including facies group, facies tract, and fractal permeability models, were incorporated into the numerical flow simulator. The injection and production histories of wells in the study area were modeled, including shutdowns and the occasional conversion of production wells to steam injection wells. The framework provided by facies groups provides a more realistic representation of the reservoir conditions than facies tracts, which is revealed by a comparison of the history-matching for the oil production. Permeability distributions obtained using the fractal results predict the high degree of heterogeneity within the reservoir sands of West Coalinga Field. The modeling results indicate that predictions of oil production are strongly influenced by the geologic framework and by the boundary conditions. The permeability data collected from the southern Utah outcrop, support a new concept for representing natural heterogeneity, which is called the fractal/facies concept. This hypothesis is one of the few potentially simplifying concepts to emerge from recent studies of geological heterogeneity. Further investigation of this concept should be done to more fully apply fractal analysis to reservoir modeling and simulation. Additional outcrop permeability data sets and further analysis of the data from distinct facies will be needed in order to fully develop this new concept.« less
Development and application of coupled system dynamics and game theory: A dynamic water conflict resolution method.

PubMed

Zomorodian, Mehdi; Lai, Sai Hin; Homayounfar, Mehran; Ibrahim, Shaliza; Pender, Gareth

2017-01-01

Conflicts over water resources can be highly dynamic and complex due to the various factors which can affect such systems, including economic, engineering, social, hydrologic, environmental and even political, as well as the inherent uncertainty involved in many of these factors. Furthermore, the conflicting behavior, preferences and goals of stakeholders can often make such conflicts even more challenging. While many game models, both cooperative and non-cooperative, have been suggested to deal with problems over utilizing and sharing water resources, most of these are based on a static viewpoint of demand points during optimization procedures. Moreover, such models are usually developed for a single reservoir system, and so are not really suitable for application to an integrated decision support system involving more than one reservoir. This paper outlines a coupled simulation-optimization modeling method based on a combination of system dynamics (SD) and game theory (GT). The method harnesses SD to capture the dynamic behavior of the water system, utilizing feedback loops between the system components in the course of the simulation. In addition, it uses GT concepts, including pure-strategy and mixed-strategy games as well as the Nash Bargaining Solution (NBS) method, to find the optimum allocation decisions over available water in the system. To test the capability of the proposed method to resolve multi-reservoir and multi-objective conflicts, two different deterministic simulation-optimization models with increasing levels of complexity were developed for the Langat River basin in Malaysia. The later is a strategic water catchment that has a range of different stakeholders and managerial bodies, which are however willing to cooperate in order to avoid unmet demand. In our first model, all water users play a dynamic pure-strategy game. The second model then adds in dynamic behaviors to reservoirs to factor in inflow uncertainty and adjust the strategies for the reservoirs using the mixed-strategy game and Markov chain methods. The two models were then evaluated against three performance indices: Reliability, Resilience and Vulnerability (R-R-V). The results showed that, while both models were well capable of dealing with conflict resolution over water resources in the Langat River basin, the second model achieved a substantially improved performance through its ability to deal with dynamicity, complexity and uncertainty in the river system.
Development and application of coupled system dynamics and game theory: A dynamic water conflict resolution method

PubMed Central

Lai, Sai Hin; Homayounfar, Mehran; Ibrahim, Shaliza; Pender, Gareth

2017-01-01

Conflicts over water resources can be highly dynamic and complex due to the various factors which can affect such systems, including economic, engineering, social, hydrologic, environmental and even political, as well as the inherent uncertainty involved in many of these factors. Furthermore, the conflicting behavior, preferences and goals of stakeholders can often make such conflicts even more challenging. While many game models, both cooperative and non-cooperative, have been suggested to deal with problems over utilizing and sharing water resources, most of these are based on a static viewpoint of demand points during optimization procedures. Moreover, such models are usually developed for a single reservoir system, and so are not really suitable for application to an integrated decision support system involving more than one reservoir. This paper outlines a coupled simulation-optimization modeling method based on a combination of system dynamics (SD) and game theory (GT). The method harnesses SD to capture the dynamic behavior of the water system, utilizing feedback loops between the system components in the course of the simulation. In addition, it uses GT concepts, including pure-strategy and mixed-strategy games as well as the Nash Bargaining Solution (NBS) method, to find the optimum allocation decisions over available water in the system. To test the capability of the proposed method to resolve multi-reservoir and multi-objective conflicts, two different deterministic simulation-optimization models with increasing levels of complexity were developed for the Langat River basin in Malaysia. The later is a strategic water catchment that has a range of different stakeholders and managerial bodies, which are however willing to cooperate in order to avoid unmet demand. In our first model, all water users play a dynamic pure-strategy game. The second model then adds in dynamic behaviors to reservoirs to factor in inflow uncertainty and adjust the strategies for the reservoirs using the mixed-strategy game and Markov chain methods. The two models were then evaluated against three performance indices: Reliability, Resilience and Vulnerability (R-R-V). The results showed that, while both models were well capable of dealing with conflict resolution over water resources in the Langat River basin, the second model achieved a substantially improved performance through its ability to deal with dynamicity, complexity and uncertainty in the river system. PMID:29216200
Use of single-well simulators and economic performance criteria to optimize fracturing treatment design

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Anderson, R.W.; Phillips, A.M.

1990-02-01

Low-permeability reservoirs are currently being propped with sand, resin-coated sand, intermediate-density proppants, and bauxite. This wide range of proppant cost and performance has resulted in the proliferation of proppant selection models. Initially, a rather vague relationship between well depth and proppant strength dictated the choice of proppant. More recently, computerized models of varying complexity that use net-present-value (NPV) calculations have become available. The input is based on the operator's performance goals for each well and specific reservoir properties. Simpler, noncomputerized approaches include cost/performance comparisons and nomographs. Each type of model, including several of the computerized models, is examined here. Bymore » use of these models and NPV calculations, optimum fracturing treatment designs have been developed for such low-permeability reservoirs as the Prue in Oklahoma. Typical well conditions are used in each of the selection models, and the results are compared.« less
Rhodhiss Lake, North Carolina; analysis of ambient conditions and simulation of hydrodynamics, constituent transport, and water-quality characteristics, 1993-94

USGS Publications Warehouse

Giorgino, M.J.; Bales, J.D.

1997-01-01

From January 1993 through March 1994, the U.S. Geological Survey conducted an investigation of Rhodhiss Lake in cooperation with the Western Piedmont Council of Governments. Objectives of the investigation were to describe ambient hydrologic and water-quality conditions, to estimate loadings of nutrients and suspended solids from selected tributaries and point sources, and to simulate hydraulic circulation and water-quality characteristics in Rhodhiss Lake using a hydrodynamic computer model. The riverine headwaters of Rhodhiss Lake were unstratified, well oxygenated, and contained relatively high concentrations of suspended solids and nutrients throughout the study period. In general, concentrations of suspended solids, nitrate, orthophosphate, and total phosphorus decreased in a downstream direction from the headwaters to the Rhodhiss Dam. However, increases in specific conductance frequently were observed downstream from a wastewater discharge near mid-reservoir. From mid-reservoir to the dam, Rhodhiss Lake thermally stratified during the summer of 1993. In this reach, dissolved oxygen was rapidly depleted from the bottom waters beginning in May 1993, and anoxic conditions persisted in the hypolimnion through the summer. During summer stratification, concentrations of nitrite plus nitrate, ammonia, and orthophosphate were low in the epilimnion, but concentrations of ammonia, orthophosphate, and total phosphorus increased in the hypolimnion. During fall and winter, Rhodhiss Lake was characterized by alternating periods of stratification and mixing. A maximum chlorophyll-a concentration of 52 micrograms per liter was observed at mid-reservoir on November 17, 1993, and was the only value that exceeded the North Carolina water-quality standard of 40 micrograms per liter. Concentrations of fecal coliform bacteria exceeded 200 colonies per 100 milliliters in the headwaters of Rhodhiss Lake 37 percent of the time, and at mid-reservoir and in the forebay 16 percent of the time. In Lower Creek, a tributary to Rhodhiss Lake, concentrations of fecal coliform bacteria exceeded 200 colonies per 100 milliliters in 76 percent of the samples. This stream also contained elevated concentrations of nitrite plus nitrate, phosphorus, and specific conductance. Loading estimates showed that almost all of the suspended solids and the majority of the nitrogen and phosphorus entering the headwaters of Rhodhiss Lake originated from nonpoint sources. During the investigation, point sources accounted for less than 1 percent of the suspended solids load to the reservoir headwaters, but point sources accounted for up to 27 and 22 percent of the total nitrogen and total phosphorus loads, respectively. Additional loadings of nitrogen and phosphorus entered Rhodhiss Lake by municipal wastewater discharge near mid-reservoir. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers CE-QUAL-W2 model is a two-dimensional, laterally averaged model that simulates hydrodynamics and water quality. The model was applied to Rhodhiss Lake from Huffman Bridge to Rhodhiss Dam--a distance of 18.5 kilometers--and was calibrated using data collected from April 1993 through March 1994. During the simulation period, measured water levels varied a total of 1.32 meters, and water temperatures ranged from 4 to 30 degrees Celsius. The calibrated model provided good agreement between measured and simu- lated water levels at Rhodhiss Dam. Likewise, simulated water temperatures were generally within 2 degrees Celsius of measured values; however, the model tended to overpredict temperatures near the bottom of the reservoir by 1 to 3 degrees Celsius during warm months. This suggests that the model, as calibrated, overpredicts vertical mixing. Simulated dissolved oxygen concentrations followed the same general patterns and magnitudes as measured values, and there was good agreement between simulated and measured frequency of occurrence of dissolved oxygen concentrations less than 5 milligra
Dry Volume Fracturing Simulation of Shale Gas Reservoir

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Guixi; Wang, Shuzhong; Luo, Xiangrong; Jing, Zefeng

2017-11-01

Application of CO2 dry fracturing technology to shale gas reservoir development in China has advantages of no water consumption, little reservoir damage and promoting CH4 desorption. This paper uses Meyer simulation to study complex fracture network extension and the distribution characteristics of shale gas reservoirs in the CO2 dry volume fracturing process. The simulation results prove the validity of the modified CO2 dry fracturing fluid used in shale volume fracturing and provides a theoretical basis for the following study on interval optimization of the shale reservoir dry volume fracturing.

Mixed integer simulation optimization for optimal hydraulic fracturing and production of shale gas fields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, J. C.; Gong, B.; Wang, H. G.

2016-08-01

Optimal development of shale gas fields involves designing a most productive fracturing network for hydraulic stimulation processes and operating wells appropriately throughout the production time. A hydraulic fracturing network design-determining well placement, number of fracturing stages, and fracture lengths-is defined by specifying a set of integer ordered blocks to drill wells and create fractures in a discrete shale gas reservoir model. The well control variables such as bottom hole pressures or production rates for well operations are real valued. Shale gas development problems, therefore, can be mathematically formulated with mixed-integer optimization models. A shale gas reservoir simulator is used to evaluate the production performance for a hydraulic fracturing and well control plan. To find the optimal fracturing design and well operation is challenging because the problem is a mixed integer optimization problem and entails computationally expensive reservoir simulation. A dynamic simplex interpolation-based alternate subspace (DSIAS) search method is applied for mixed integer optimization problems associated with shale gas development projects. The optimization performance is demonstrated with the example case of the development of the Barnett Shale field. The optimization results of DSIAS are compared with those of a pattern search algorithm.
Model coupling methodology for thermo-hydro-mechanical-chemical numerical simulations in integrated assessment of long-term site behaviour

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kempka, Thomas; De Lucia, Marco; Kühn, Michael

2015-04-01

The integrated assessment of long-term site behaviour taking into account a high spatial resolution at reservoir scale requires a sophisticated methodology to represent coupled thermal, hydraulic, mechanical and chemical processes of relevance. Our coupling methodology considers the time-dependent occurrence and significance of multi-phase flow processes, mechanical effects and geochemical reactions (Kempka et al., 2014). Hereby, a simplified hydro-chemical coupling procedure was developed (Klein et al., 2013) and validated against fully coupled hydro-chemical simulations (De Lucia et al., 2015). The numerical simulation results elaborated for the pilot site Ketzin demonstrate that mechanical reservoir, caprock and fault integrity are maintained during the time of operation and that after 10,000 years CO2 dissolution is the dominating trapping mechanism and mineralization occurs on the order of 10 % to 25 % with negligible changes to porosity and permeability. De Lucia, M., Kempka, T., Kühn, M. A coupling alternative to reactive transport simulations for long-term prediction of chemical reactions in heterogeneous CO2 storage systems (2014) Geosci Model Dev Discuss 7:6217-6261. doi:10.5194/gmdd-7-6217-2014. Kempka, T., De Lucia, M., Kühn, M. Geomechanical integrity verification and mineral trapping quantification for the Ketzin CO2 storage pilot site by coupled numerical simulations (2014) Energy Procedia 63:3330-3338, doi:10.1016/j.egypro.2014.11.361. Klein E, De Lucia M, Kempka T, Kühn M. Evaluation of longterm mineral trapping at the Ketzin pilot site for CO2 storage: an integrative approach using geo-chemical modelling and reservoir simulation. Int J Greenh Gas Con 2013; 19:720-730. doi:10.1016/j.ijggc.2013.05.014.
A comprehensive surface-groundwater flow model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arnold, Jeffrey G.; Allen, Peter M.; Bernhardt, Gilbert

1993-02-01

In this study, a simple groundwater flow and height model was added to an existing basin-scale surface water model. The linked model is: (1) watershed scale, allowing the basin to be subdivided; (2) designed to accept readily available inputs to allow general use over large regions; (3) continuous in time to allow simulation of land management, including such factors as climate and vegetation changes, pond and reservoir management, groundwater withdrawals, and stream and reservoir withdrawals. The model is described, and is validated on a 471 km 2 watershed near Waco, Texas. This linked model should provide a comprehensive tool for water resource managers in development and planning.
Coupling groundwater and riparian vegetation models to assess effects of reservoir releases

USGS Publications Warehouse

Springer, Abraham E.; Wright, Julie M.; Shafroth, Patrick B.; Stromberg, Juliet C.; Patten, Duncan T.

1999-01-01

Although riparian areas in the arid southwestern United States are critical for maintaining species diversity, their extent and health have been declining since Euro‐American settlement. The purpose of this study was to develop a methodology to evaluate the potential for riparian vegetation restoration and groundwater recharge. A numerical groundwater flow model was coupled with a conceptual riparian vegetation model to predict hydrologic conditions favorable to maintaining riparian vegetation downstream of a reservoir. A Geographic Information System (GIS) was used for this one‐way coupling. Constant and seasonally varying releases from the dam were simulated using volumes anticipated to be permitted by a regional water supplier. Simulations indicated that seasonally variable releases would produce surface flow 5.4–8.5 km below the dam in a previously dry reach. Using depth to groundwater simulations from the numerical flow model with conceptual models of depths to water necessary for maintenance of riparian vegetation, the GIS analysis predicted a 5‐ to 6.5‐fold increase in the area capable of sustaining riparian vegetation.
Geothermal reservoir simulation of hot sedimentary aquifer system using FEFLOW®

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nur Hidayat, Hardi; Gala Permana, Maximillian

2017-12-01

The study presents the simulation of hot sedimentary aquifer for geothermal utilization. Hot sedimentary aquifer (HSA) is a conduction-dominated hydrothermal play type utilizing deep aquifer, which is heated by near normal heat flow. One of the examples of HSA is Bavarian Molasse Basin in South Germany. This system typically uses doublet wells: an injection and production well. The simulation was run for 3650 days of simulation time. The technical feasibility and performance are analysed in regards to the extracted energy from this concept. Several parameters are compared to determine the model performance. Parameters such as reservoir characteristics, temperature information and well information are defined. Several assumptions are also defined to simplify the simulation process. The main results of the simulation are heat period budget or total extracted heat energy, and heat rate budget or heat production rate. Qualitative approaches for sensitivity analysis are conducted by using five parameters in which assigned lower and higher value scenarios.
Effect of Streamflow Forecast Uncertainty on Real-Time Reservoir Operation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, T.; Cai, X.; Yang, D.

2010-12-01

Various hydrological forecast products have been applied to real-time reservoir operation, including deterministic streamflow forecast (DSF), DSF-based probabilistic streamflow forecast (DPSF), and ensemble streamflow forecast (ESF), which represent forecast uncertainty in the form of deterministic forecast error, deterministic forecast error-based uncertainty distribution, and ensemble forecast errors, respectively. Compared to previous studies that treat these forecast products as ad hoc inputs for reservoir operation models, this paper attempts to model the uncertainties involved in the various forecast products and explores their effect on real-time reservoir operation decisions. In hydrology, there are various indices reflecting the magnitude of streamflow forecast uncertainty; meanwhile, few models illustrate the forecast uncertainty evolution process. This research introduces Martingale Model of Forecast Evolution (MMFE) from supply chain management and justifies its assumptions for quantifying the evolution of uncertainty in streamflow forecast as time progresses. Based on MMFE, this research simulates the evolution of forecast uncertainty in DSF, DPSF, and ESF, and applies the reservoir operation models (dynamic programming, DP; stochastic dynamic programming, SDP; and standard operation policy, SOP) to assess the effect of different forms of forecast uncertainty on real-time reservoir operation. Through a hypothetical single-objective real-time reservoir operation model, the results illustrate that forecast uncertainty exerts significant effects. Reservoir operation efficiency, as measured by a utility function, decreases as the forecast uncertainty increases. Meanwhile, these effects also depend on the type of forecast product being used. In general, the utility of reservoir operation with ESF is nearly as high as the utility obtained with a perfect forecast; the utilities of DSF and DPSF are similar to each other but not as efficient as ESF. Moreover, streamflow variability and reservoir capacity can change the magnitude of the effects of forecast uncertainty, but not the relative merit of DSF, DPSF, and ESF. Schematic diagram of the increase in forecast uncertainty with forecast lead-time and the dynamic updating property of real-time streamflow forecast
Enhancing the water management schemes of H08 global hydrological model to attribute human water use to six major water sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hanasaki, N.; Yoshikawa, S.; Pokhrel, Y. N.; Kanae, S.

2017-12-01

Humans abstract water from various sources to sustain their livelihood and society. Some global hydrological models (GHMs) include explicit schemes of human water management, but the representation and performance of these schemes remain limited. We substantially enhanced the human water management schemes of the H08 GHM by incorporating the latest data and techniques. The model enables us to estimate water abstraction from six major water sources, namely, river flow regulated by global reservoirs (i.e., reservoirs regulating the flow of the world's major rivers), aqueduct water transfer, local reservoirs, seawater desalination, renewable groundwater, and nonrenewable groundwater. All the interactions were simulated in a single computer program and the water balance was always strictly closed at any place and time during the simulation period. Using this model, we first conducted a historical global hydrological simulation at a spatial resolution of 0.5 x 0.5 degree to specify the sources of water for humanity. The results indicated that, in 2000, of the 3628 km3yr-1 global freshwater requirement, 2839 km3yr-1 was taken from surface water and 789 km3yr-1 from groundwater. Streamflow, aqueduct water transfer, local reservoirs, and seawater desalination accounted for 1786, 199, 106, and 1.8 km3yr-1 of the surface water, respectively. The remaining 747 km3yr-1 freshwater requirement was unmet, or surface water was not available when and where it was needed in our simulation. Renewable and nonrenewable groundwater accounted for 607 and 182 km3yr-1 of the groundwater total, respectively. Second, we evaluated the water stress using our simulations and contrasted it with earlier global assessments based on empirical water scarcity indicators, namely, the Withdrawal to Availability ratio and the Falkenmark index (annual renewable water resources per capita). We found that inclusion of water infrastructures in our model diminished water stress in some parts of the world, on the other hand, daily evaluation of water supply and demand highlighted the temporal/seasonal water deficit due to their variations. The enhanced model is potentially useful for quantitative understanding of the global hydrological cycles including human activities and advancement of global water resources assessment.
Computer simulation of production from geopressured-geothermal aquifers. Project 61025 annual report, October 1, 1978-September 30, 1979

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rogers, L.A.

1980-06-01

In the Department of Energy test of the Edna Delcambre No. 1 well for recovery of natural gas from geopressured-geothermal brine, part of the test producted gas in excess of the amount that could be dissolved in the brine. Where this excess gas originated was unknown and several theories were proposed to explain the source. This annual report describes IGT's work to match the observed gas/water production with computer simulation. Two different theoretical models were calculated in detail using available reservoir simulators. One model considered the excess gas to be dispersed as small bubbles in pores. The other model consideredmore » the excess gas as a nearby free gas cap above the aquifer. Reservoir engineering analysis of the flow test data was used to determine the basic reservoir characteristics. The computer studies revealed that the dispersed gas model gave characteristically the wrong shape for plots of gas/water ratio, and no reasonable match of the calculated values could be made to the experimental results. The free gas cap model gave characteristically better shapes to the gas/water ratio plots if the initial edge of the free gas was only about 400 feet from the well. Because there were two other wells at approximately this distance (Delcambre No. 4 and No. 4A wells) which had a history of down-hole blowouts and mechanical problems, it appears that the source of the excess free gas is from a separate horizon which connected to the Delcambre No. 1 sand via these nearby wells. This conclusion is corroborated by the changes in gas composition when the excess gas occurs and the geological studies which indicate the nearest free gas cap to be several thousand feet away. The occurrence of this excess free gas can thus be explained by known reservoir characteristics, and no new model for gas entrapment or production is needed.« less
Optimization of Geothermal Well Placement under Geological Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schulte, Daniel O.; Arnold, Dan; Demyanov, Vasily; Sass, Ingo; Geiger, Sebastian

2017-04-01

Well placement optimization is critical to commercial success of geothermal projects. However, uncertainties of geological parameters prohibit optimization based on a single scenario of the subsurface, particularly when few expensive wells are to be drilled. The optimization of borehole locations is usually based on numerical reservoir models to predict reservoir performance and entails the choice of objectives to optimize (total enthalpy, minimum enthalpy rate, production temperature) and the development options to adjust (well location, pump rate, difference in production and injection temperature). Optimization traditionally requires trying different development options on a single geological realization yet there are many possible different interpretations possible. Therefore, we aim to optimize across a range of representative geological models to account for geological uncertainty in geothermal optimization. We present an approach that uses a response surface methodology based on a large number of geological realizations selected by experimental design to optimize the placement of geothermal wells in a realistic field example. A large number of geological scenarios and design options were simulated and the response surfaces were constructed using polynomial proxy models, which consider both geological uncertainties and design parameters. The polynomial proxies were validated against additional simulation runs and shown to provide an adequate representation of the model response for the cases tested. The resulting proxy models allow for the identification of the optimal borehole locations given the mean response of the geological scenarios from the proxy (i.e. maximizing or minimizing the mean response). The approach is demonstrated on the realistic Watt field example by optimizing the borehole locations to maximize the mean heat extraction from the reservoir under geological uncertainty. The training simulations are based on a comprehensive semi-synthetic data set of a hierarchical benchmark case study for a hydrocarbon reservoir, which specifically considers the interpretational uncertainty in the modeling work flow. The optimal choice of boreholes prolongs the time to cold water breakthrough and allows for higher pump rates and increased water production temperatures.
Numerical modeling of the simulated gas hydrate production test at Mallik 2L-38 in the pilot scale pressure reservoir LARS - Applying the "foamy oil" model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abendroth, Sven; Thaler, Jan; Klump, Jens; Schicks, Judith; Uddin, Mafiz

2014-05-01

In the context of the German joint project SUGAR (Submarine Gas Hydrate Reservoirs: exploration, extraction and transport) we conducted a series of experiments in the LArge Reservoir Simulator (LARS) at the German Research Centre of Geosciences Potsdam. These experiments allow us to investigate the formation and dissociation of hydrates at large scale laboratory conditions. We performed an experiment similar to the field-test conditions of the production test in the Mallik gas hydrate field (Mallik 2L-38) in the Beaufort Mackenzie Delta of the Canadian Arctic. The aim of this experiment was to study the transport behavior of fluids in gas hydrate reservoirs during depressurization (see also Heeschen et al. and Priegnitz et al., this volume). The experimental results from LARS are used to provide details about processes inside the pressure vessel, to validate the models through history matching, and to feed back into the design of future experiments. In experiments in LARS the amount of methane produced from gas hydrates was much lower than expected. Previously published models predict a methane production rate higher than the one observed in experiments and field studies (Uddin et al. 2010; Wright et al. 2011). The authors of the aforementioned studies point out that the current modeling approach overestimates the gas production rate when modeling gas production by depressurization. They suggest that trapping of gas bubbles inside the porous medium is responsible for the reduced gas production rate. They point out that this behavior of multi-phase flow is not well explained by a "residual oil" model, but rather resembles a "foamy oil" model. Our study applies Uddin's (2010) "foamy oil" model and combines it with history matches of our experiments in LARS. Our results indicate a better agreement between experimental and model results when using the "foamy oil" model instead of conventional models of gas flow in water. References Uddin M., Wright J.F. and Coombe D. (2010) - Numerical Study of gas evolution and transport behaviors in natural gas hydrate reservoirs; CSUG/SPE 137439. Wright J.F., Uddin M., Dallimore S.R. and Coombe D. (2011) - Mechanisms of gas evolution and transport in a producing gas hydrate reservoir: an unconventional basis for successful history matching of observed production flow data; International Conference on Gas Hydrates (ICGH 2011).
Deposition and simulation of sediment transport in the Lower Susquehanna River reservoir system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hainly, R.A.; Reed, L.A.; Flippo, H.N.; Barton, G.J.

1995-01-01

The Susquehanna River drains 27,510 square miles in New York, Pennsylvania, and Maryland and is the largest tributary to the Chesapeake Bay. Three large hydroelectric dams are located on the river, Safe Harbor (Lake Clarke) and Holtwood (Lake Aldred) in southern Pennsylvania, and Conowingo (Conowingo Reservoir) in northern Maryland. About 259 million tons of sediment have been deposited in the three reservoirs. Lake Clarke contains about 90.7 million tons of sediment, Lake Aldred contains about 13.6 million tons, and Conowingo Reservoir contains about 155 million tons. An estimated 64.8 million tons of sand, 19.7 million tons of coal, 112 million tons of silt, and 63.3 million tons of clay are deposited in the three reservoirs. Deposition in the reservoirs is variable and ranges from 0 to 30 feet. Chemical analyses of sediment core samples indicate that the three reservoirs combined contain about 814,000 tons of organic nitrogen, 98,900 tons of ammonia as nitrogen, 226,000 tons of phosphorus, 5,610,000 1tons of iron, 2,250,000 tons of aluminum, and about 409,000 tons of manganese. Historical data indicate that Lake Clarke and Lake Aldred have reached equilibrium, and that they no longer store sediment. A comparison of cross-sectional data from Lake Clarke and Lake Aldred with data from Conowingo Reservoir indicates that Conowingo Reservoir will reach equilibrium within the next 20 to 30 years. As the Conowingo Reservoir fills with sediment and approaches equilibrium, the amount of sediment transported to the Chesapeake Bay will increase. The most notable increases will take place when very high flows scour the deposited sediment. Sediment transport through the reservoir system was simulated with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers' HEC-6 computer model. The model was calibrated with monthly sediment loads for calendar year 1987. Calibration runs with options set for maximum trap efficiency and a "natural" particle-size distribution resulted in an overall computed trap efficiency of 34 percent for 1987, much less than the measured efficiency of 71 percent.
Application of Reservoir Flow Simulation Integrated with Geomechanics in Unconventional Tight Play

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Menglu; Chen, Shengnan; Mbia, Ernest; Chen, Zhangxing

2018-01-01

Multistage hydraulic fracturing techniques, combined with horizontal drilling, have enabled commercial production from the vast reserves of unconventional tight formations. During hydraulic fracturing, fracturing fluid and proppants are pumped into the reservoir matrix to create the hydraulic fractures. Understanding the propagation mechanism of hydraulic fractures is essential to estimate their properties, such as half-length. In addition, natural fractures are often present in tight formations, which might be activated during the fracturing process and contribute to the post-stimulation well production rates. In this study, reservoir simulation is integrated with rock geomechanics to predict the well post-stimulation productivities. Firstly, a reservoir geological model is built based on the field data collected from the Montney formation in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin. The hydraulic fracturing process is then simulated through an integrated approach of fracturing fluid injection, rock geomechanics, and tensile failure criteria. In such a process, the reservoir pore pressure increases with a continuous injection of the fracturing fluid and proppants, decreasing the effective stress exerted on the rock matrix accordingly as the overburden pressure remains constant. Once the effective stress drops to a threshold value, tensile failure of the reservoir rock occurs, creating hydraulic fractures in the formation. The early production history of the stimulated well is history-matched to validate the predicted fracture geometries (e.g., half-length) generated from the fracturing simulation process. The effects of the natural fracture properties and well bottom-hole pressures on well productivity are also studied. It has been found that nearly 40% of hydraulic fractures propagate in the beginning stage (the pad step) of the fracturing schedule. In addition, well post-stimulation productivity will increase significantly if the natural fractures are propped or partially propped by the proppants. This paper provides insights on fracture propagation and can be a reference for fracturing treatments in unconventional tight reservoirs.
Design of a high temperature subsurface thermal energy storage system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Qi

Solar thermal energy is taking up increasing proportions of future power generation worldwide. Thermal energy storage technology is a key method for compensating for the inherent intermittency of solar resources and solving the time mismatch between solar energy supply and electricity demand. However, there is currently no cost-effective high-capacity compact storage technology available (Bakker et al., 2008). The goal of this work is to propose a high temperature subsurface thermal energy storage (HSTES) technology and demonstrate its potential energy storage capability by developing a solar-HSTES-electricity generation system. In this work, main elements of the proposed system and their related state-of-art technologies are reviewed. A conceptual model is built to illustrate the concept, design, operating procedure and application of such a system. A numerical base model is built within the TOUGH2-EOS1 multiphase flow simulator for the evaluation of system performance. Additional models are constructed and simulations are done to identify the effect of different operational and geological influential factors on the system performance. Our work shows that when the base model is run with ten years operation of alternate injection and production processes - each for a month - with a thermal power input of 10.85 MW, about 83% of the injected thermal energy could be recovered within each working cycle from a stabilized HSTES system. After the final conversion into electrical energy, a relative (compared with the direct use of hot water) electricity generation efficiency of 73% is obtained. In a typical daily storage scenario, the simulated thermal storage efficiency could exceed 78% and the relative electricity generation efficiency is over 66% in the long run. In a seasonal storage scenario, these two efficiencies reach 69% and 53% respectively by the end of the simulation period of 10 years. Additional simulations reveal a thinner storage aquifer with a higher horizontal-to-vertical permeability ratio is favored by the storage system. A basin-shape reservoir is more favored than a flat reservoir, while a flat reservoir is better than a dome-shape reservoir. The effect of aquifer stratification is variable: it depends on the relative position of the well screen and the impermeable lenses within the reservoir. From the operational aspect, the well screen position is crucial and properly shortening the screen length can help heat recovery. The proportion of the injection/storage/recovery processes within a cycle, rather than their exact lengths, affects the storage efficiency. Reservoir preheating helps improve the energy storage efficiency for the first several cycles. However, it does not contribute much to the system performance in the long run. Simulations also indicate that buoyancy effect is of significant importance in heat distribution and the plume migration. Reducing the gravity override effect of the heat plume could be an important consideration in efficiency optimization.
ENHANCING HSPF MODEL CHANNEL HYDRAULIC REPRESENTATION

EPA Science Inventory

The Hydrological Simulation Program - FORTRAN (HSPF) is a comprehensive watershed model, which employs depth-area-volume-flow relationships known as hydraulic function table (FTABLE) to represent stream channel cross-sections and reservoirs. An accurate FTABLE determination for a...
Bulalo field, Philippines: Reservoir modeling for prediction of limits to sustainable generation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Strobel, Calvin J.

1993-01-28

The Bulalo geothermal field, located in Laguna province, Philippines, supplies 12% of the electricity on the island of Luzon. The first 110 MWe power plant was on line May 1979; current 330 MWe (gross) installed capacity was reached in 1984. Since then, the field has operated at an average plant factor of 76%. The National Power Corporation plans to add 40 MWe base load and 40 MWe standby in 1995. A numerical simulation model for the Bulalo field has been created that matches historic pressure changes, enthalpy and steam flash trends and cumulative steam production. Gravity modeling provided independent verificationmore » of mass balances and time rate of change of liquid desaturation in the rock matrix. Gravity modeling, in conjunction with reservoir simulation provides a means of predicting matrix dry out and the time to limiting conditions for sustainable levelized steam deliverability and power generation.« less
Reconstruction of a digital core containing clay minerals based on a clustering algorithm.

PubMed

He, Yanlong; Pu, Chunsheng; Jing, Cheng; Gu, Xiaoyu; Chen, Qingdong; Liu, Hongzhi; Khan, Nasir; Dong, Qiaoling

2017-10-01

It is difficult to obtain a core sample and information for digital core reconstruction of mature sandstone reservoirs around the world, especially for an unconsolidated sandstone reservoir. Meanwhile, reconstruction and division of clay minerals play a vital role in the reconstruction of the digital cores, although the two-dimensional data-based reconstruction methods are specifically applicable as the microstructure reservoir simulation methods for the sandstone reservoir. However, reconstruction of clay minerals is still challenging from a research viewpoint for the better reconstruction of various clay minerals in the digital cores. In the present work, the content of clay minerals was considered on the basis of two-dimensional information about the reservoir. After application of the hybrid method, and compared with the model reconstructed by the process-based method, the digital core containing clay clusters without the labels of the clusters' number, size, and texture were the output. The statistics and geometry of the reconstruction model were similar to the reference model. In addition, the Hoshen-Kopelman algorithm was used to label various connected unclassified clay clusters in the initial model and then the number and size of clay clusters were recorded. At the same time, the K-means clustering algorithm was applied to divide the labeled, large connecting clusters into smaller clusters on the basis of difference in the clusters' characteristics. According to the clay minerals' characteristics, such as types, textures, and distributions, the digital core containing clay minerals was reconstructed by means of the clustering algorithm and the clay clusters' structure judgment. The distributions and textures of the clay minerals of the digital core were reasonable. The clustering algorithm improved the digital core reconstruction and provided an alternative method for the simulation of different clay minerals in the digital cores.
Rate decline curves analysis of multiple-fractured horizontal wells in heterogeneous reservoirs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jiahang; Wang, Xiaodong; Dong, Wenxiu

2017-10-01

In heterogeneous reservoir with multiple-fractured horizontal wells (MFHWs), due to the high density network of artificial hydraulic fractures, the fluid flow around fracture tips behaves like non-linear flow. Moreover, the production behaviors of different artificial hydraulic fractures are also different. A rigorous semi-analytical model for MFHWs in heterogeneous reservoirs is presented by combining source function with boundary element method. The model are first validated by both analytical model and simulation model. Then new Blasingame type curves are established. Finally, the effects of critical parameters on the rate decline characteristics of MFHWs are discussed. The results show that heterogeneity has significant influence on the rate decline characteristics of MFHWs; the parameters related to the MFHWs, such as fracture conductivity and length also can affect the rate characteristics of MFHWs. One novelty of this model is to consider the elliptical flow around artificial hydraulic fracture tips. Therefore, our model can be used to predict rate performance more accurately for MFHWs in heterogeneous reservoir. The other novelty is the ability to model the different production behavior at different fracture stages. Compared to numerical and analytic methods, this model can not only reduce extensive computing processing but also show high accuracy.
Development and testing of a fast conceptual river water quality model.

PubMed

Keupers, Ingrid; Willems, Patrick

2017-04-15

Modern, model based river quality management strongly relies on river water quality models to simulate the temporal and spatial evolution of pollutant concentrations in the water body. Such models are typically constructed by extending detailed hydrodynamic models with a component describing the advection-diffusion and water quality transformation processes in a detailed, physically based way. This approach is too computational time demanding, especially when simulating long time periods that are needed for statistical analysis of the results or when model sensitivity analysis, calibration and validation require a large number of model runs. To overcome this problem, a structure identification method to set up a conceptual river water quality model has been developed. Instead of calculating the water quality concentrations at each water level and discharge node, the river branch is divided into conceptual reservoirs based on user information such as location of interest and boundary inputs. These reservoirs are modelled as Plug Flow Reactor (PFR) and Continuously Stirred Tank Reactor (CSTR) to describe advection and diffusion processes. The same water quality transformation processes as in the detailed models are considered but with adjusted residence times based on the hydrodynamic simulation results and calibrated to the detailed water quality simulation results. The developed approach allows for a much faster calculation time (factor 10 5 ) without significant loss of accuracy, making it feasible to perform time demanding scenario runs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Reactive Transport Modeling and Geophysical Monitoring of Bioclogging at Reservoir Scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Surasani, V.; Commer, M.; Ajo Franklin, J. B.; Li, L.; Hubbard, S. S.

2012-12-01

In Microbial-Enhanced-Hydrocarbon-Recovery (MEHR), preferential bioclogging targets the growth of the biofilms (def. immobilized biopolymers with active cells embodied in it) in highly permeable thief zones to enhance sweep efficiency in oil reservoirs. During MEHR, understanding and controlling bioclogging is hindered by the lack of advanced modeling and monitoring tools; these deficiencies contribute to suboptimal performance. Our focus in this study was on developing a systematic approach to understand and monitor bioclogging at the reservoir scale using a combination of reactive transport modeling and geophysical imaging tools (EM & seismic). In this study, we created a realistic reservoir model from a heterogeneous gas reservoir in the Southern Sacramento basin, California; the model well (Citizen Green #1) was characterized using sonic, electrical, nuclear, and NMR logs for hydrologic and geophysical properties. From the simplified 2D log data model, a strip of size 150m x75m with several high permeability streaks is identified for bioclogging simulation experiments. From the NMR log data it is observed that a good linear correlation exist between logarithmic permeability (0.55- 3.34 log (mD)) versus porosity (0.041-0.28). L. mesenteroides was chosen as the model bacteria. In the presence of sucrose, it enzymatically catalyzes the production of dextran, a useful bioclogging agent. Using microbial kinetics from our laboratory experiment and reservoir heterogeneity, a reactive transport model (RTM) is established for two kinds of bioclogging treatments based on whether microbes are present in situ or are supplied externally. In both cases, sucrose media (1.5 M) is injected at the rate of 1 liter/s for 20 days into the center of high permeable strip to stimulate microbes. Simulations show that the high dextran production was deep into the formation from the injection well. This phenomenon can be explained precisely with bacterial kinetics and injection rate. In the in situ treatment, dextran contributes to a maximum porosity reduction of 9.2%, while in the exogenous microbes treatment, the dextran contributes to a maximum of 10.9% porosity reduction. After RTM, the potential geophysical signature of the treatment was evaluated using previously developed experimental rock physics models and realistic forward modeling approaches. Seismic experiments during dextran production performed by Kwan & Ajo-Franklin (2011) were combined with full waveform viscoelastic modeling to yield a predicted attenuation response from the dextran distributions modeled using RTM. The response suggests that crosswell attenuation tomography may be a viable approach for in situ monitoring of the bioclogging process. Modeling the EM response involved the induced polarization (IP) method, where the simulated resistance amplitude and phase changes can be attributed to porosity reduction. Our studies suggest that the IP signals provide a valuable additional indicator. Both geophysical data methods in a joint imaging approach potentially increase the resolution of each geophysical attribute change. Likewise, reactive transport modeling and geophysical monitoring can provide a powerful tool for predicting different bioclogging scenarios in subsurface. The combination may enhance our capabilities of controlling and monitoring the MEHR bioclogging process at reservoir scale.
Co-Optimization of CO 2-EOR and Storage Processes in Mature Oil Reservoirs

DOE PAGES

Ampomah, William; Balch, Robert S.; Grigg, Reid B.; ...

2016-08-02

This article presents an optimization methodology for CO 2 enhanced oil recovery in partially depleted reservoirs. A field-scale compositional reservoir flow model was developed for assessing the performance history of an active CO 2 flood and for optimizing both oil production and CO 2 storage in the Farnsworth Unit (FWU), Ochiltree County, Texas. A geological framework model constructed from geophysical, geological, and engineering data acquired from the FWU was the basis for all reservoir simulations and the optimization method. An equation of state was calibrated with laboratory fluid analyses and subsequently used to predict the thermodynamic minimum miscible pressure (MMP).more » Initial history calibrations of primary, secondary and tertiary recovery were conducted as the basis for the study. After a good match was achieved, an optimization approach consisting of a proxy or surrogate model was constructed with a polynomial response surface method (PRSM). The PRSM utilized an objective function that maximized both oil recovery and CO 2 storage. Experimental design was used to link uncertain parameters to the objective function. Control variables considered in this study included: water alternating gas cycle and ratio, production rates and bottom-hole pressure of injectors and producers. Other key parameters considered in the modeling process were CO 2 purchase, gas recycle and addition of infill wells and/or patterns. The PRSM proxy model was ‘trained’ or calibrated with a series of training simulations. This involved an iterative process until the surrogate model reached a specific validation criterion. A sensitivity analysis was first conducted to ascertain which of these control variables to retain in the surrogate model. A genetic algorithm with a mixed-integer capability optimization approach was employed to determine the optimum developmental strategy to maximize both oil recovery and CO 2 storage. The proxy model reduced the computational cost significantly. The validation criteria of the reduced order model ensured accuracy in the dynamic modeling results. The prediction outcome suggested robustness and reliability of the genetic algorithm for optimizing both oil recovery and CO 2 storage. The reservoir modeling approach used in this study illustrates an improved approach to optimizing oil production and CO 2 storage within partially depleted oil reservoirs such as FWU. Lastly, this study may serve as a benchmark for potential CO 2–EOR projects in the Anadarko basin and/or geologically similar basins throughout the world.« less

Co-Optimization of CO 2-EOR and Storage Processes in Mature Oil Reservoirs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ampomah, William; Balch, Robert S.; Grigg, Reid B.

This article presents an optimization methodology for CO 2 enhanced oil recovery in partially depleted reservoirs. A field-scale compositional reservoir flow model was developed for assessing the performance history of an active CO 2 flood and for optimizing both oil production and CO 2 storage in the Farnsworth Unit (FWU), Ochiltree County, Texas. A geological framework model constructed from geophysical, geological, and engineering data acquired from the FWU was the basis for all reservoir simulations and the optimization method. An equation of state was calibrated with laboratory fluid analyses and subsequently used to predict the thermodynamic minimum miscible pressure (MMP).more » Initial history calibrations of primary, secondary and tertiary recovery were conducted as the basis for the study. After a good match was achieved, an optimization approach consisting of a proxy or surrogate model was constructed with a polynomial response surface method (PRSM). The PRSM utilized an objective function that maximized both oil recovery and CO 2 storage. Experimental design was used to link uncertain parameters to the objective function. Control variables considered in this study included: water alternating gas cycle and ratio, production rates and bottom-hole pressure of injectors and producers. Other key parameters considered in the modeling process were CO 2 purchase, gas recycle and addition of infill wells and/or patterns. The PRSM proxy model was ‘trained’ or calibrated with a series of training simulations. This involved an iterative process until the surrogate model reached a specific validation criterion. A sensitivity analysis was first conducted to ascertain which of these control variables to retain in the surrogate model. A genetic algorithm with a mixed-integer capability optimization approach was employed to determine the optimum developmental strategy to maximize both oil recovery and CO 2 storage. The proxy model reduced the computational cost significantly. The validation criteria of the reduced order model ensured accuracy in the dynamic modeling results. The prediction outcome suggested robustness and reliability of the genetic algorithm for optimizing both oil recovery and CO 2 storage. The reservoir modeling approach used in this study illustrates an improved approach to optimizing oil production and CO 2 storage within partially depleted oil reservoirs such as FWU. Lastly, this study may serve as a benchmark for potential CO 2–EOR projects in the Anadarko basin and/or geologically similar basins throughout the world.« less
Gray-box reservoir routing to compute flow propagation in operational forecasting and decision support systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Russano, Euan; Schwanenberg, Dirk; Alvarado Montero, Rodolfo

2017-04-01

Operational forecasting and decision support systems for flood mitigation and the daily management of water resources require computationally efficient flow routing models. If backwater effects do not play an important role, a hydrological routing approach is often a pragmatic choice. It offers a reasonable accuracy at low computational costs in comparison to a more detailed hydraulic model. This work presents a nonlinear reservoir routing scheme as well as its implementation for the flow propagation between the hydro reservoir Três Marias and a downstream inundation-affected city Pirapora in Brazil. We refer to the model as a gray-box approach due to the identification of the parameter k by a data-driven approach for each reservoir of the cascade, instead of using estimates based on physical characteristics. The model reproduces the discharge at the gauge Pirapora, using 15 reservoirs in the cascade. The obtained results are compared with the ones obtained from the full-hydrodynamic model SOBEK. Results show a relatively good performance for the validation period, with a RMSE of 139.48 for the gray-box model, while the full-hydrodynamic model shows a RMSE of 136.67. The simulation time for a period of several years for the full-hydrodynamic took approximately 64s, while the gray-box model only required about 0.50s. This provides a significant speedup of the computation by only a little trade-off in accuracy, pointing at the potential of the simple approach in the context of time-critical, operational applications. Key-words: flow routing, reservoir routing, gray-box model
Economic Implementation and Optimization of Secondary Oil Recovery

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cary D. Brock

The St Mary West Barker Sand Unit (SMWBSU or Unit) located in Lafayette County, Arkansas was unitized for secondary recovery operations in 2002 followed by installation of a pilot injection system in the fall of 2003. A second downdip water injection well was added to the pilot project in 2005 and 450,000 barrels of saltwater has been injected into the reservoir sand to date. Daily injection rates have been improved over initial volumes by hydraulic fracture stimulation of the reservoir sand in the injection wells. Modifications to the injection facilities are currently being designed to increase water injection rates formore » the pilot flood. A fracture treatment on one of the production wells resulted in a seven-fold increase of oil production. Recent water production and increased oil production in a producer closest to the pilot project indicates possible response to the water injection. The reservoir and wellbore injection performance data obtained during the pilot project will be important to the secondary recovery optimization study for which the DOE grant was awarded. The reservoir characterization portion of the modeling and simulation study is in progress by Strand Energy project staff under the guidance of University of Houston Department of Geosciences professor Dr. Janok Bhattacharya and University of Texas at Austin Department of Petroleum and Geosystems Engineering professor Dr. Larry W. Lake. A geologic and petrophysical model of the reservoir is being constructed from geophysical data acquired from core, well log and production performance histories. Possible use of an outcrop analog to aid in three dimensional, geostatistical distribution of the flow unit model developed from the wellbore data will be investigated. The reservoir model will be used for full-field history matching and subsequent fluid flow simulation based on various injection schemes including patterned water flooding, addition of alkaline surfactant-polymer (ASP) to the injected water, and high pressure air injection (HPAI) for in-situ low temperature oxidization (LTO) will be studied for optimization of the secondary recovery process.« less
An agricultural drought index to incorporate the irrigation process and reservoir operations: A case study in the Tarim River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Zehua; Hao, Zhenchun; Shi, Xiaogang; Déry, Stephen J.; Li, Jieyou; Chen, Sichun; Li, Yongkun

2016-08-01

To help the decision making process and reduce climate change impacts, hydrologically-based drought indices have been used to determine drought severity in the Tarim River Basin (TRB) over the past decades. As the major components of the surface water balance, however, the irrigation process and reservoir operations have not been incorporated into drought indices in previous studies. Therefore, efforts are needed to develop a new agricultural drought index, which is based on the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model coupled with an irrigation scheme and a reservoir module. The new drought index was derived from the simulated soil moisture data from a retrospective VIC simulation from 1961 to 2007 over the irrigated area in the TRB. The physical processes in the coupled VIC model allow the new agricultural drought index to take into account a wide range of hydrologic processes including the irrigation process and reservoir operations. Notably, the irrigation process was found to dominate the surface water balance and drought evolution in the TRB. Furthermore, the drought conditions identified by the new agricultural drought index presented a good agreement with the historical drought events that occurred in 1993-94, 2004, and 2006-07, respectively. Moreover, the spatial distribution of coupled VIC model outputs using the new drought index provided detailed information about where and to what extent droughts occurred.
Coupling Hydraulic Fracturing Propagation and Gas Well Performance for Simulation of Production in Unconventional Shale Gas Reservoirs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, C.; Winterfeld, P. H.; Wu, Y. S.; Wang, Y.; Chen, D.; Yin, C.; Pan, Z.

2014-12-01

Hydraulic fracturing combined with horizontal drilling has made it possible to economically produce natural gas from unconventional shale gas reservoirs. An efficient methodology for evaluating hydraulic fracturing operation parameters, such as fluid and proppant properties, injection rates, and wellhead pressure, is essential for the evaluation and efficient design of these processes. Traditional numerical evaluation and optimization approaches are usually based on simulated fracture properties such as the fracture area. In our opinion, a methodology based on simulated production data is better, because production is the goal of hydraulic fracturing and we can calibrate this approach with production data that is already known. This numerical methodology requires a fully-coupled hydraulic fracture propagation and multi-phase flow model. In this paper, we present a general fully-coupled numerical framework to simulate hydraulic fracturing and post-fracture gas well performance. This three-dimensional, multi-phase simulator focuses on: (1) fracture width increase and fracture propagation that occurs as slurry is injected into the fracture, (2) erosion caused by fracture fluids and leakoff, (3) proppant subsidence and flowback, and (4) multi-phase fluid flow through various-scaled anisotropic natural and man-made fractures. Mathematical and numerical details on how to fully couple the fracture propagation and fluid flow parts are discussed. Hydraulic fracturing and production operation parameters, and properties of the reservoir, fluids, and proppants, are taken into account. The well may be horizontal, vertical, or deviated, as well as open-hole or cemented. The simulator is verified based on benchmarks from the literature and we show its application by simulating fracture network (hydraulic and natural fractures) propagation and production data history matching of a field in China. We also conduct a series of real-data modeling studies with different combinations of hydraulic fracturing parameters and present the methodology to design these operations with feedback of simulated production data. The unified model aids in the optimization of hydraulic fracturing design, operations, and production.
User's Guide of TOUGH2-EGS. A Coupled Geomechanical and Reactive Geochemical Simulator for Fluid and Heat Flow in Enhanced Geothermal Systems Version 1.0

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fakcharoenphol, Perapon; Xiong, Yi; Hu, Litang

TOUGH2-EGS is a numerical simulation program coupling geomechanics and chemical reactions for fluid and heat flows in porous media and fractured reservoirs of enhanced geothermal systems. The simulator includes the fully-coupled geomechanical (THM) module, the fully-coupled geochemical (THC) module, and the sequentially coupled reactive geochemistry (THMC) module. The fully-coupled flow-geomechanics model is developed from the linear elastic theory for the thermo-poro-elastic system and is formulated with the mean normal stress as well as pore pressure and temperature. The chemical reaction is sequentially coupled after solution of flow equations, which provides the flow velocity and phase saturation for the solute transportmore » calculation at each time step. In addition, reservoir rock properties, such as porosity and permeability, are subjected to change due to rock deformation and chemical reactions. The relationships between rock properties and geomechanical and chemical effects from poro-elasticity theories and empirical correlations are incorporated into the simulator. This report provides the user with detailed information on both mathematical models and instructions for using TOUGH2-EGS for THM, THC or THMC simulations. The mathematical models include the fluid and heat flow equations, geomechanical equation, reactive geochemistry equations, and discretization methods. Although TOUGH2-EGS has the capability for simulating fluid and heat flows coupled with both geomechanical and chemical effects, it is up to the users to select the specific coupling process, such as THM, THC, or THMC in a simulation. There are several example problems illustrating the applications of this program. These example problems are described in details and their input data are presented. The results demonstrate that this program can be used for field-scale geothermal reservoir simulation with fluid and heat flow, geomechanical effect, and chemical reaction in porous and fractured media.« less
Estimating irrigation water demand using an improved method and optimizing reservoir operation for water supply and hydropower generation: a case study of the Xinfengjiang reservoir in southern China

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wu, Yiping; Chen, Ji

2013-01-01

The ever-increasing demand for water due to growth of population and socioeconomic development in the past several decades has posed a worldwide threat to water supply security and to the environmental health of rivers. This study aims to derive reservoir operating rules through establishing a multi-objective optimization model for the Xinfengjiang (XFJ) reservoir in the East River Basin in southern China to minimize water supply deficit and maximize hydropower generation. Additionally, to enhance the estimation of irrigation water demand from the downstream agricultural area of the XFJ reservoir, a conventional method for calculating crop water demand is improved using hydrological model simulation results. Although the optimal reservoir operating rules are derived for the XFJ reservoir with three priority scenarios (water supply only, hydropower generation only, and equal priority), the river environmental health is set as the basic demand no matter which scenario is adopted. The results show that the new rules derived under the three scenarios can improve the reservoir operation for both water supply and hydropower generation when comparing to the historical performance. Moreover, these alternative reservoir operating policies provide the flexibility for the reservoir authority to choose the most appropriate one. Although changing the current operating rules may influence its hydropower-oriented functions, the new rules can be significant to cope with the increasingly prominent water shortage and degradation in the aquatic environment. Overall, our results and methods (improved estimation of irrigation water demand and formulation of the reservoir optimization model) can be useful for local watershed managers and valuable for other researchers worldwide.
Fluid Flow Simulation For CO2-EOR and Sequestration Utilizing Geomechanical Constraints - Teapot Dome Oil Field, Wyoming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chiaramonte, L.; Zoback, M. D.; Friedmann, J.; Stamp, V.

2007-12-01

Mature oil and gas reservoirs are attractive targets for geological sequestration of CO2 because of their potential storage capacities and the possible cost offsets from enhanced oil recovery (EOR). In this work we develop a 3D reservoir model and fluid flow simulation of the Tensleep Formation using geomechanical constraints to evaluate the feasibility of a CO2-EOR injection project at Teapot Dome Oil Field, WY. The objective of this work is to model the migration of the injected CO2 as well as to obtain limits on the rates and volumes of CO2 that can be injected without compromising seal integrity. Teapot Dome is an elongated asymmetrical, basement-cored anticline with a north-northwest axis. It is part of the Salt Creek structural trend, located in the southwestern edge of the Powder River Basin. The Tensleep Fm. in this area consists of interdune deposits such as eolian sandstones, sabkha carbonates, evaporites (mostly anhydrite), and some very low permeability dolomicrites. The average porosity is 0.10 ranging from 0.05-0.20. The average permeability is 30 mD, ranging from 10 - 100 mD. The average reservoir thickness is 50 ft. The reservoir has strong aquifer drive. In the area under study, the Tensleep Fm. has its structural crest at 1675 m. It presents a 3-way closure trap against a NE-SW fault to the north. We previously carried out a geomechanical stability analysis and found this fault to be able to support the increase in pressure due to the CO2 to be injected, even if the structure was "filled-to-spill". In this work we combine our previous geomechanical analysis, geostatistical reservoir modeling and fluid flow simulations to investigate critical questions regarding the feasibility of a CO2-EOR project in the Tensleep Fm. The analysis takes into consideration the initial trapping and sealing mechanisms of the reservoir, the consequences of past and present oil production on the initial properties, and the potential effect of CO2 injection on both the reservoir and the seal. Finally, we want to predict the long-term oil recovery of the injection site and what will happen in the system once oil production stops.
Simulation of the effects of the Devils Lake State Outlet on hydrodynamics and water quality in Lake Ashtabula, North Dakota, 2006-10

USGS Publications Warehouse

Galloway, Joel M.

2011-01-01

In 2010, a two-dimensional hydrodynamic and water-quality model (CE-QUAL-W2) of Lake Ashtabula, North Dakota, was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the North Dakota State Water Commission to understand the dynamics of chemical constituents in the reservoir and to provide a tool for the management and operation of the Devils Lake State Outlet in meeting the water-quality standards downstream from Baldhill Dam. The Lake Ashtabula model was calibrated for hydrodynamics, sulfate concentrations, and total dissolved-solids concentrations to ambient conditions from June 2006 through June 2010. The calibrated model then was used to simulate four scenarios that represent various Devils Lake outlet options that have been considered for reducing the water levels in Devils Lake. Simulated water temperatures compared well with measured temperatures and differences varied spatially in Lake Ashtabula from June 2006 through June 2010. The absolute mean error ranged from 0.7 degrees Celsius to 1.0 degrees Celsius and the root mean square error ranged from 0.7 degrees Celsius to 1.1 degrees Celsius. Simulated sulfate concentrations compared well with measured concentrations in Lake Ashtabula. In general, simulated sulfate concentrations were slightly overpredicted with mean differences between simulated and measured sulfate concentrations ranging from -2 milligram per liter to 18 milligrams per liter. Differences between simulated and measured sulfate concentrations varied temporally in Lake Ashtabula from June 2006 through June 2010. In 2006, sulfate concentrations were overpredicted in the lower part of the reservoir and underpredicted in the upper part of the reservoir. Simulated total dissolved solids generally were greater than measured total dissolved-solids concentrations in Lake Ashtabula from June 2006 through June 2010. The mean difference between simulated and measured total dissolved-solids concentrations ranged from -3 milligrams per liter to 15 milligrams per liter, the absolute mean error ranged from 58 milligrams per liter to 100 milligrams per liter, and the root mean square error ranged from 73 milligrams per liter to 114 milligrams per liter. Simulated sulfate concentrations from four scenarios were compared to simulated ambient concentrations from June 2006 through June 2009. For scenario 1, the same location, outflow capacity, and sulfate concentration as the current (2010) Devils Lake State Outlet were assumed. The increased flow and sulfate concentration in scenario 1, beginning on May 31 and extending to October 31 each year, resulted in an increase in sulfate concentrations to greater than 450 milligrams per liter in the reservoir at site 7T (approximately the middle of the reservoir), starting July 5 in 2006, July 28 in 2007, and July 15 in 2008. Sulfate concentrations increased to greater than 450 milligrams per liter considerably later at site 1T (near the dam), starting October 8 in 2006, October 29 in 2007, and October 3 in 2008. For scenario 2, the same Devils Lake State Outlet sulfate concentration as scenario 1 was assumed, but the flow through the Devils Lake State Outlet was doubled, which resulted in a more rapid increase in sulfate concentrations in the lower part of the reservoir and slightly greater values at all four sites compared to scenario 1. Sulfate concentrations increased to greater than 450 milligrams per liter 61 days earlier in 2006, 67 days earlier in 2007, and 41 days earlier in 2008 at site 1T. For scenarios 3 and 4, possible increases in flow and concentration from the current outlet location (from the West Bay of Devils Lake) and from a proposed outlet from East Devils Lake were simulated. Conditions for scenario 3 resulted in a relatively rapid increase in sulfate concentrations in the reservoir, and concentrations were greater than 750 milligrams per liter in most years at all four sites. As expected, scenario 4 resulted in greater sulfate concentr
Using the nonlinear aquifer storage-discharge relationship to simulate the base flow of glacier- and snowmelt-dominated basins in northwest China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gan, R.; Luo, Y.

2013-09-01

Base flow is an important component in hydrological modeling. This process is usually modeled by using the linear aquifer storage-discharge relation approach, although the outflow from groundwater aquifers is nonlinear. To identify the accuracy of base flow estimates in rivers dominated by snowmelt and/or glacier melt in arid and cold northwestern China, a nonlinear storage-discharge relationship for use in SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool) modeling was developed and applied to the Manas River basin in the Tian Shan Mountains. Linear reservoir models and a digital filter program were used for comparisons. Meanwhile, numerical analysis of recession curves from 78 river gauge stations revealed variation in the parameters of the nonlinear relationship. It was found that the nonlinear reservoir model can improve the streamflow simulation, especially for low-flow period. The higher Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, logarithmic efficiency, and volumetric efficiency, and lower percent bias were obtained when compared to the one-linear reservoir approach. The parameter b of the aquifer storage-discharge function varied mostly between 0.0 and 0.1, which is much smaller than the suggested value of 0.5. The coefficient a of the function is related to catchment properties, primarily the basin and glacier areas.
Impact of Climate Change on Projected Runoff from Mountain Snowpack of the King's Rivershed in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dialesandro, J.; Elias, E.; Rango, A.; Steele, C. M.

2016-12-01

The Central Valley of California, like most dryland agricultural areas in the Southwest United States, relies heavily on winter snowpack for water resources. Projections of future climate in the Sierra Mountains of California calls for a warmer climate regime that will impact the snowpack in the Sierra Mountains and thus the water supply for downstream agriculture and municipal uses within California's Central Valley. We simulate the impacts of two future time windows (2040-2069 and 2070-2099) and two future climate scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) on King's River using the Snowmelt Runoff Model. Snow depletion curves for 2010 are generated using MODIS and SRM parameters are adjusted until measured and simulated runoff reach acceptable agreement (R2 = .81). Future projections are based upon the multimodel mean of 20 CMIP5 models for seasonal future temperature and precipitation at high and low elevation points in the watershed from the multivariate adaptive constructed analogs (MACA) downscaled dataset. Changes in monthly inflow to Pineflat Reservoir, at the pour point of King's River watersheds, show a large decline in June and July inflow for all future climate simulations. Conversely, simulated spring inflow to Pineflat Reservoir is larger in the future. Impacts are most pronounced for end of the century (2070-2099), business as usual (RCP 8.5) simulation. Results are discussed with regard to implications for reservoir storage, groundwater recharge and creative solutions to cope with anticipated changes in runoff.
Improvements in the spatial representation of lakes and reservoirs in the contiguous United States for the National Water Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khan, S.; Salas, F.; Sampson, K. M.; Read, L. K.; Cosgrove, B.; Li, Z.; Gochis, D. J.

2017-12-01

The representation of inland surface water bodies in distributed hydrologic models at the continental scale is a challenge. The National Water Model (NWM) utilizes the National Hydrography Dataset Plus Version 2 (NHDPlusV2) "waterbody" dataset to represent lakes and reservoirs. The "waterbody" layer is a comprehensive dataset that represents surface water bodies using common features like lakes, ponds, reservoirs, estuaries, playas and swamps/marshes. However, a major issue that remains unresolved even in the latest revision of NHDPlus Version 2 is the inconsistency in waterbody digitization and delineation errors. Manually correcting the water body polygons becomes tedious and quickly impossible for continental-scale hydrologic models such as the NWM. In this study, we improved spatial representation of 6,802 lakes and reservoirs by analyzing 379,110 waterbodies in the contiguous United States (excluding the Laurentian Great Lakes). We performed a step-by- step process that integrates a set of geospatial analyses to identify, track, and correct the extent of lakes and reservoirs features that are larger than 0.75 km2. The following assumptions were applied while developing the new dataset: a) lakes and reservoirs cannot directly feed into each other; b) each waterbody must have one outlet; and c) a single lake or reservoir feature cannot have multiple parts. The majority of the NHDplusV2 waterbody features in the original dataset are delineated correctly. However approximately 3 % of the lake and reservoir polygons were found to be incorrect with topological errors and were corrected accordingly. It is important to fix these digitizing errors because the waterbody features are closely linked to the river topology. This new waterbody dataset will ensure that model-simulated water is directed into and through the lakes and reservoirs in a manner that supports the NWM code base and assumptions. The improved dataset will facilitate more effective integration of lakes and reservoirs with correct spatial features into the updated NWM.
Pore-Scale Simulation and Sensitivity Analysis of Apparent Gas Permeability in Shale Matrix

PubMed Central

Zhang, Pengwei; Hu, Liming; Meegoda, Jay N.

2017-01-01

Extremely low permeability due to nano-scale pores is a distinctive feature of gas transport in a shale matrix. The permeability of shale depends on pore pressure, porosity, pore throat size and gas type. The pore network model is a practical way to explain the macro flow behavior of porous media from a microscopic point of view. In this research, gas flow in a shale matrix is simulated using a previously developed three-dimensional pore network model that includes typical bimodal pore size distribution, anisotropy and low connectivity of the pore structure in shale. The apparent gas permeability of shale matrix was calculated under different reservoir pressures corresponding to different gas exploitation stages. Results indicate that gas permeability is strongly related to reservoir gas pressure, and hence the apparent permeability is not a unique value during the shale gas exploitation, and simulations suggested that a constant permeability for continuum-scale simulation is not accurate. Hence, the reservoir pressures of different shale gas exploitations should be considered. In addition, a sensitivity analysis was also performed to determine the contributions to apparent permeability of a shale matrix from petro-physical properties of shale such as pore throat size and porosity. Finally, the impact of connectivity of nano-scale pores on shale gas flux was analyzed. These results would provide an insight into understanding nano/micro scale flows of shale gas in the shale matrix. PMID:28772465
Pore-Scale Simulation and Sensitivity Analysis of Apparent Gas Permeability in Shale Matrix.

PubMed

Zhang, Pengwei; Hu, Liming; Meegoda, Jay N

2017-01-25

Extremely low permeability due to nano-scale pores is a distinctive feature of gas transport in a shale matrix. The permeability of shale depends on pore pressure, porosity, pore throat size and gas type. The pore network model is a practical way to explain the macro flow behavior of porous media from a microscopic point of view. In this research, gas flow in a shale matrix is simulated using a previously developed three-dimensional pore network model that includes typical bimodal pore size distribution, anisotropy and low connectivity of the pore structure in shale. The apparent gas permeability of shale matrix was calculated under different reservoir pressures corresponding to different gas exploitation stages. Results indicate that gas permeability is strongly related to reservoir gas pressure, and hence the apparent permeability is not a unique value during the shale gas exploitation, and simulations suggested that a constant permeability for continuum-scale simulation is not accurate. Hence, the reservoir pressures of different shale gas exploitations should be considered. In addition, a sensitivity analysis was also performed to determine the contributions to apparent permeability of a shale matrix from petro-physical properties of shale such as pore throat size and porosity. Finally, the impact of connectivity of nano-scale pores on shale gas flux was analyzed. These results would provide an insight into understanding nano/micro scale flows of shale gas in the shale matrix.
Innovative Tools for Water Quality/Quantity Management: New York City's Operations Support Tool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, L.; Schaake, J. C.; Day, G. N.; Porter, J.; Sheer, D. P.; Pyke, G.

2011-12-01

The New York City Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) manages New York City's water supply, which is comprised of over 20 reservoirs and supplies more than 1 billion gallons of water per day to over 9 million customers. Recently, DEP has initiated design of an Operations Support Tool (OST), a state-of-the-art decision support system to provide computational and predictive support for water supply operations and planning. This presentation describes the technical structure of OST, including the underlying water supply and water quality models, data sources and database management, reservoir inflow forecasts, and the functionalities required to meet the needs of a diverse group of end users. OST is a major upgrade of DEP's current water supply - water quality model, developed to evaluate alternatives for controlling turbidity in NYC's Catskill reservoirs. While the current model relies on historical hydrologic and meteorological data, OST can be driven by forecasted future conditions. It will receive a variety of near-real-time data from a number of sources. OST will support two major types of simulations: long-term, for evaluating policy or infrastructure changes over an extended period of time; and short-term "position analysis" (PA) simulations, consisting of multiple short simulations, all starting from the same initial conditions. Typically, the starting conditions for a PA run will represent those for the current day and traces of forecasted hydrology will drive the model for the duration of the simulation period. The result of these simulations will be a distribution of future system states based on system operating rules and the range of input ensemble streamflow predictions. DEP managers will analyze the output distributions and make operation decisions using risk-based metrics such as probability of refill. Currently, in the developmental stages of OST, forecasts are based on antecedent hydrologic conditions and are statistical in nature. The statistical algorithm is a relatively simple and versatile, but lacks short-term skill critical for water quality and spill management. To improve short-term skill, OST will ultimately operate with meteorologically driven hydrologic forecasts provided by the National Weather Service (NWS). OST functionalities will support a wide range of DEP uses, including short term operational projections, outage planning and emergency management, operating rule development, and water supply planning. A core use of OST will be to inform reservoir management strategies to control and mitigate turbidity events while ensuring water supply reliability. OST will also allow DEP to manage its complex reservoir system to meet multiple objectives, including ecological flows, tailwater fisheries and recreational releases, and peak flow mitigation for downstream communities.
The Coal-Seq III Consortium. Advancing the Science of CO 2 Sequestration in Coal Seam and Gas Shale Reservoirs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Koperna, George

The Coal-Seq consortium is a government-industry collaborative that was initially launched in 2000 as a U.S. Department of Energy sponsored investigation into CO2 sequestration in deep, unmineable coal seams. The consortium’s objective aimed to advancing industry’s understanding of complex coalbed methane and gas shale reservoir behavior in the presence of multi-component gases via laboratory experiments, theoretical model development and field validation studies. Research from this collaborative effort was utilized to produce modules to enhance reservoir simulation and modeling capabilities to assess the technical and economic potential for CO2 storage and enhanced coalbed methane recovery in coal basins. Coal-Seq Phase 3more » expands upon the learnings garnered from Phase 1 & 2, which has led to further investigation into refined model development related to multicomponent equations-of-state, sorption and diffusion behavior, geomechanical and permeability studies, technical and economic feasibility studies for major international coal basins the extension of the work to gas shale reservoirs, and continued global technology exchange. The first research objective assesses changes in coal and shale properties with exposure to CO2 under field replicated conditions. Results indicate that no significant weakening occurs when coal and shale were exposed to CO2, therefore, there was no need to account for mechanical weakening of coal due to the injection of CO2 for modeling. The second major research objective evaluates cleat, Cp, and matrix, Cm, swelling/shrinkage compressibility under field replicated conditions. The experimental studies found that both Cp and Cm vary due to changes in reservoir pressure during injection and depletion under field replicated conditions. Using laboratory data from this study, a compressibility model was developed to predict the pore-volume compressibility, Cp, and the matrix compressibility, Cm, of coal and shale, which was applied to modeling software to enhance model robustness. Research was also conducted to improve algorithms and generalized adsorption models to facilitate realistic simulation of CO2 sequestration in coal seams and shale gas reservoirs. The interaction among water and the adsorbed gases, carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrogen (N2) in coalbeds is examined using experimental in situ laboratory techniques to comprehensively model CBM production and CO2 sequestration in coals. An equation of state (EOS) module was developed which is capable of predicting the density of pure components and mixtures involving the wet CBM gases CH4, CO2, and N2 at typical reservoir condition, and is used to inform CO2 injection models. The final research objective examined the effects adsorbed CO2 has on coal strength and permeability. This research studied the weakening or failure of coal by the adsorption of CO2 from empirically derived gas production data to develop models for advanced modeling of permeability changes during CO2 sequestration. The results of this research effort have been used to construct a new and improved model for assessing changes in permeability of coal reservoirs due CO2 injection. The modules developed from these studies and knowledge learned are applied to field validation and basin assessment studies. These data were used to assess the flow and storage of CO2 in a shale reservoir, test newly developed code against large-scale projects, and conduct a basin-oriented review of coal storage potential in the San Juan Basin. The storage potential and flow of CO2 was modeled for shale sequestration of a proprietary Marcellus Shale horizontal gas production well using COMET3 simulation software. Simulation results from five model runs indicate that stored CO2 quantities are linked to the duration of primary production preceding injection. Matrix CO2 saturation is observed to increase in each shale zone after injection with an increase in primary production, and the size of the CO2 plume is also observed to increase in size the longer initial production is sustained. The simulation modules developed around the Coal-Seq experimental work are also incorporated into a pre-existing large-scale numerical simulation model of the Pump Canyon CO2-ECBM pilot in the San Juan Basin. The new model was applied to re-history match the data set to explore the improvements made in permeability prediction against previously published data sets and to validate this module. The assessment of the new data, however, indicates that the impact of the variable Cp is negligible on the overall behavior of the coal for CO2 storage purposes. Applying these new modules, the San Juan Basin and the Marcellus Shale are assessed for their technical ECBM/AGR and CO2 storage potential and the economic potential of these operations. The San Juan Basin was divided into 4 unique geographic zones based on production history, and the Marcellus was divided into nine. Each was assessed based upon each zone’s properties, and simulations were run to assess the potential of full Basin development. Models of a fully developed San Juan Basin suggest the potential for up to 104 Tcf of CO2 storage, and 12.3 Tcf of methane recovery. The Marcellus models suggest 1,248 Tcf of CO2 storage and 924 Tcf of AGR. The economics are deemed favorable where credits cover the cost of CO2 in the San Juan Basin, and in many cases in the Marcellus, but to maximize storage potential, credits need to extend to pay the operator to store CO2.« less
The Cumberland River Flood of 2010 and Corps Reservoir Operations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Charley, W.; Hanbali, F.; Rohrbach, B.

2010-12-01

On Saturday, May 1, 2010, heavy rain began falling in the Cumberland River Valley and continued through the following day. 13.5 inches was measured at Nashville, an unprecedented amount that doubled the previous 2-day record, and exceeded the May monthly total record of 11 inches. Elsewhere in the valley, amounts of over 19 inches were measured. The frequency of this storm was estimated to exceed the one-thousand year event. This historic rainfall brought large scale flooding to the Cumberland-Ohio-Tennessee River Valleys, and caused over 2 billion dollars in damages, despite the numerous flood control projects in the area, including eight U.S. Army Corps of Engineers projects. The vast majority of rainfall occurred in drainage areas that are uncontrolled by Corps flood control projects, which lead to the wide area flooding. However, preliminary analysis indicates that operations of the Corps projects reduced the Cumberland River flood crest in Nashville by approximately five feet. With funding from the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) of 2009, hydrologic, hydraulic and reservoir simulation models have just been completed for the Cumberland-Ohio-Tennessee River Valleys. These models are being implemented in the Corps Water Management System (CWMS), a comprehensive data acquisition and hydrologic modeling system for short-term decision support of water control operations in real time. The CWMS modeling component uses observed rainfall and forecasted rainfall to compute forecasts of river flows into and downstream of reservoirs, using HEC-HMS. Simulation of reservoir operations, utilizing either the HEC-ResSim or CADSWES RiverWare program, uses these flow scenarios to provide operational decision information for the engineer. The river hydraulics program, HEC-RAS, computes river stages and water surface profiles for these scenarios. An inundation boundary and depth map of water in the flood plain can be calculated from the HEC-RAS results using ArcInfo. The economic impacts of the different inundation depths are computed by HEC-FIA. The user-configurable sequence of modeling software allows engineers to evaluate operational decisions for reservoirs and other control structures, and view and compare hydraulic and economic impacts for various “what if?” scenarios. This paper reviews the Cumberland River May 2010 event, the impact of Corps reservoirs and reservoir operations and the expected future benefits and effects of the ARRA funded models and CWMS on future events for this area.
Modeling the Transport and Fate of Fecal Pollution and Nutrients of Miyun Reservoir

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, L.; Fu, X.; Wang, G.

2009-12-01

Miyun Reservoir, a mountain valley reservoir, is located 100 km northeast of Beijing City. Besides the functions of flood control, irrigation and fishery for Beijing area, Miyun Reservoir is the main drinking water storage for Beijing city. The water quality is therefore of great importance. Recently, the concentration of fecal pollution and nutrients in the reservoir are constantly rising to arrest the attention of Beijing municipality. Fecal pollution from sewage is a significant public health concern due to the known presence of human viruses and parasites in these discharges. To investigate the transport and fate of the fecal pollution and nutrients at Miyun reservoir and the health risks associated with drinking and fishery, the reservoir and two tributaries, Chaohe river and Baihe river discharging into it are being examined for bacterial, nutrients and other routine pollution. To understand the relative importance of different processes influencing pollution transport and inactivation, a finite-element model of surf-zone hydrodynamics (coupled with models for temperature, fecal pollution, nutrients and other routine contaminants) is used. The developed models are being verified by the observed water quality data including water temperature, conductivities and dissolved oxygen from the reservoir and its tributaries. Different factors impacting the inactivation of fecal pollution and the transport of nutrients such as water temperature, sedimentation, sunlight insolation are evaluated for Miyun reservoir by a sensitivity analysis analogized from the previous research of Lake Michigan (figure 1, indicating that solar insolation dominates the inactivation of E. Coli, an indicator of fecal pollution, Liu et al. 2006). The calibrated modeling system can be used to temporally and spatially simulate and predict the variation of the concentration of fecal pollution and nutrients of Miyun reservoir. Therefore this research can provide a forecasting tool for the administrative agencies and policy makers to make correct decisions for the water utilization of Minyun reservoir once some emergency events occur. Key words: Fecal pollution, Modeling, Transport, Inactivation Figure 1: Relative contributions of settling and solar insolation to the overall inactivation of E. coli at the Mt. Baldy Beach (Liu et al. 2006)
Transient pressure analysis of a volume fracturing well in fractured tight oil reservoirs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Cheng; Wang, Jiahang; Zhang, Cong; Cheng, Minhua; Wang, Xiaodong; Dong, Wenxiu; Zhou, Yingfang

2017-12-01

This paper presents a semi-analytical model to simulate transient pressure curves for a vertical well with a reconstructed fracture network in fractured tight oil reservoirs. In the proposed model, the reservoir is a composite system and contains two regions. The inner region is described as a formation with a finite conductivity hydraulic fracture network and the flow in the fracture is assumed to be linear, while the outer region is modeled using the classical Warren-Root model where radial flow is applied. The transient pressure curves of a vertical well in the proposed reservoir model are calculated semi-analytically using the Laplace transform and Stehfest numerical inversion. As shown in the type curves, the flow is divided into several regimes: (a) linear flow in artificial main fractures; (b) coupled boundary flow; (c) early linear flow in a fractured formation; (d) mid radial flow in the semi-fractures of the formation; (e) mid radial flow or pseudo steady flow; (f) mid cross-flow; (g) closed boundary flow. Based on our newly proposed model, the effects of some sensitive parameters, such as elastic storativity ratio, cross-flow coefficient, fracture conductivity and skin factor, on the type curves were also analyzed extensively. The simulated type curves show that for a vertical fractured well in a tight reservoir, the elastic storativity ratios and crossflow coefficients affect the time and the degree of crossflow respectively. The pressure loss increases with an increase in the fracture conductivity. To a certain extent, the effect of the fracture conductivity is more obvious than that of the half length of the fracture on improving the production effect. With an increase in the wellbore storage coefficient, the fluid compressibility is so large that it might cover the early stage fracturing characteristics. Linear or bilinear flow may not be recognized, and the pressure and pressure derivative gradually shift to the right. With an increase in the skin effect, the pressure loss increases gradually.
Using laboratory flow experiments and reactive chemical transport modeling for designing waterflooding of the Agua Fria Reservoir, Poza Rica-Altamira Field, Mexico

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Birkle, P.; Pruess, K.; Xu, T.

Waterflooding for enhanced oil recovery requires that injected waters must be chemically compatible with connate reservoir waters, in order to avoid mineral dissolution-and-precipitation cycles that could seriously degrade formation permeability and injectivity. Formation plugging is a concern especially in reservoirs with a large content of carbonates, such as calcite and dolomite, as such minerals typically react rapidly with an aqueous phase, and have strongly temperature-dependent solubility. Clay swelling can also pose problems. During a preliminary waterflooding pilot project, the Poza Rica-Altamira oil field, bordering the Gulf coast in the eastern part of Mexico, experienced injectivity loss after five months ofmore » reinjection of formation waters into well AF-847 in 1999. Acidizing with HCl restored injectivity. We report on laboratory experiments and reactive chemistry modeling studies that were undertaken in preparation for long-term waterflooding at Agua Frma. Using analogous core plugs obtained from the same reservoir interval, laboratory coreflood experiments were conducted to examine sensitivity of mineral dissolution and precipitation effects to water composition. Native reservoir water, chemically altered waters, and distilled water were used, and temporal changes in core permeability, mineral abundances and aqueous concentrations of solutes were monitored. The experiments were simulated with the multi-phase, nonisothermal reactive transport code TOUGHREACT, and reasonable to good agreement was obtained for changes in solute concentrations. Clay swelling caused an additional impact on permeability behavior during coreflood experiments, whereas the modeled permeability depends exclusively on chemical processes. TOUGHREACT was then used for reservoir-scale simulation of injecting ambient-temperature water (30 C, 86 F) into a reservoir with initial temperature of 80 C (176 F). Untreated native reservoir water was found to cause serious porosity and permeability reduction due to calcite precipitation, which is promoted by the retrograde solubility of this mineral. Using treated water that performed well in the laboratory flow experiments was found to avoid excessive precipitation, and allowed injection to proceed.« less

Simulation of streamflow, evapotranspiration, and groundwater recharge in the Lower Frio River watershed, south Texas, 1961-2008

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lizarraga, Joy S.; Ockerman, Darwin J.

2011-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Fort Worth District; the City of Corpus Christi; the Guadalupe-Blanco River Authority; the San Antonio River Authority; and the San Antonio Water System, configured, calibrated, and tested a watershed model for a study area consisting of about 5,490 mi2 of the Frio River watershed in south Texas. The purpose of the model is to contribute to the understanding of watershed processes and hydrologic conditions in the lower Frio River watershed. The model simulates streamflow, evapotranspiration (ET), and groundwater recharge by using a numerical representation of physical characteristics of the landscape, and meteorological and streamflow data. Additional time-series inputs to the model include wastewater-treatment-plant discharges, surface-water withdrawals, and estimated groundwater inflow from Leona Springs. Model simulations of streamflow, ET, and groundwater recharge were done for various periods of record depending upon available measured data for input and comparison, starting as early as 1961. Because of the large size of the study area, the lower Frio River watershed was divided into 12 subwatersheds; separate Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN models were developed for each subwatershed. Simulation of the overall study area involved running simulations in downstream order. Output from the model was summarized by subwatershed, point locations, reservoir reaches, and the Carrizo-Wilcox aquifer outcrop. Four long-term U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations and two short-term streamflow-gaging stations were used for streamflow model calibration and testing with data from 1991-2008. Calibration was based on data from 2000-08, and testing was based on data from 1991-99. Choke Canyon Reservoir stage data from 1992-2008 and monthly evaporation estimates from 1999-2008 also were used for model calibration. Additionally, 2006-08 ET data from a U.S. Geological Survey meteorological station in Medina County were used for calibration. Streamflow and ET calibration were considered good or very good. For the 2000-08 calibration period, total simulated flow volume and the flow volume of the highest 10 percent of simulated daily flows were calibrated to within about 10 percent of measured volumes at six U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations. The flow volume of the lowest 50 percent of daily flows was not simulated as accurately but represented a small percent of the total flow volume. The model-fit efficiency for the weekly mean streamflow during the calibration periods ranged from 0.60 to 0.91, and the root mean square error ranged from 16 to 271 percent of the mean flow rate. The simulated total flow volumes during the testing periods at the long-term gaging stations exceeded the measured total flow volumes by approximately 22 to 50 percent at three stations and were within 7 percent of the measured total flow volumes at one station. For the longer 1961-2008 simulation period at the long-term stations, simulated total flow volumes were within about 3 to 18 percent of measured total flow volumes. The calibrations made by using Choke Canyon reservoir volume for 1992-2008, reservoir evaporation for 1999-2008, and ET in Medina County for 2006-08, are considered very good. Model limitations include possible errors related to model conceptualization and parameter variability, lack of data to better quantify certain model inputs, and measurement errors. Uncertainty regarding the degree to which available rainfall data represent actual rainfall is potentially the most serious source of measurement error. A sensitivity analysis was performed for the Upper San Miguel subwatershed model to show the effect of changes to model parameters on the estimated mean recharge, ET, and surface runoff from that part of the Carrizo-Wilcox aquifer outcrop. Simulated recharge was most sensitive to the changes in the lower-zone ET (LZ
How far does the CO2 travel beyond a leaky point?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kong, X.; Delshad, M.; Wheeler, M.

2012-12-01

Xianhui Kong, Mojdeh Delshad, Mary F. Wheeler The University of Texas at Austin Numerous research studies have been carried out to investigate the long term feasibility of safe storage of large volumes of CO2 in subsurface saline aquifers. The injected CO2 will undergo complex petrophysical and geochemical processes. During these processes, part of CO2 will be trapped while some will remain as a mobile phase, causing a leakage risk. The comprehensive and accurate characterizations of the trapping and leakage mechanisms are critical for accessing the safety of sequestration, and are challenges in this research area. We have studied different leakage scenarios using realistic aquifer properties including heterogeneity and put forward a comprehensive trapping model for CO2 in deep saline aquifer. The reservoir models include several geological layers and caprocks up to the near surface. Leakage scenarios, such as fracture, high permeability pathways, abandoned wells, are studied. In order to accurately model the fractures, very fine grids are needed near the fracture. Considering that the aquifer usually has a large volume and reservoir model needs large number of grid blocks, simulation would be computational expensive. To deal with this challenge, we carried out the simulations using our in-house parallel reservoir simulator. Our study shows the significance of capillary pressure and permeability-porosity variations on CO2 trapping and leakage. The improved understanding on trapping and leakage will provide confidence in future implementation of sequestration projects.
Characterizing flow in oil reservoir rock using SPH: absolute permeability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holmes, David W.; Williams, John R.; Tilke, Peter; Leonardi, Christopher R.

2016-04-01

In this paper, a three-dimensional smooth particle hydrodynamics (SPH) simulator for modeling grain scale fluid flow in porous rock is presented. The versatility of the SPH method has driven its use in increasingly complex areas of flow analysis, including flows related to permeable rock for both groundwater and petroleum reservoir research. While previous approaches to such problems using SPH have involved the use of idealized pore geometries (cylinder/sphere packs etc), in this paper we detail the characterization of flow in models with geometries taken from 3D X-ray microtomographic imaging of actual porous rock; specifically 25.12 % porosity dolomite. This particular rock type has been well characterized experimentally and described in the literature, thus providing a practical `real world' means of verification of SPH that will be key to its acceptance by industry as a viable alternative to traditional reservoir modeling tools. The true advantages of SPH are realized when adding the complexity of multiple fluid phases, however, the accuracy of SPH for single phase flow is, as yet, under developed in the literature and will be the primary focus of this paper. Flow in reservoir rock will typically occur in the range of low Reynolds numbers, making the enforcement of no-slip boundary conditions an important factor in simulation. To this end, we detail the development of a new, robust, and numerically efficient method for implementing no-slip boundary conditions in SPH that can handle the degree of complexity of boundary surfaces, characteristic of an actual permeable rock sample. A study of the effect of particle density is carried out and simulation results for absolute permeability are presented and compared to those from experimentation showing good agreement and validating the method for such applications.
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Thomas C. Chidsey, Jr.

The Paradox Basin of Utah, Colorado, and Arizona contains nearly 100 small oil fields producing from shallow-shelf carbonate buildups or mounds within the Desert Creek zone of the Pennsylvanian (Desmoinesian) Paradox Formation. These fields typically have one to four wells with primary production ranging from 700,000 to 2,000,000 barrels (111,300-318,000 m{sup 3}) of oil per field at a 15 to 20 percent recovery rate. Five fields in southeastern Utah were evaluated for waterflood or carbon-dioxide (CO{sub 2})-miscible flood projects based upon geological characterization and reservoir modeling. Geological characterization on a local scale focused on reservoir heterogeneity, quality, and lateral continuitymore » as well as possible compartmentalization within each of the five project fields. The Desert Creek zone includes three generalized facies belts: (1) open-marine, (2) shallow-shelf and shelf-margin, and (3) intra-shelf, salinity-restricted facies. These deposits have modern analogs near the coasts of the Bahamas, Florida, and Australia, respectively, and outcrop analogs along the San Juan River of southeastern Utah. The analogs display reservoir heterogeneity, flow barriers and baffles, and lithofacies geometry observed in the fields; thus, these properties were incorporated in the reservoir simulation models. Productive carbonate buildups consist of three types: (1) phylloid algal, (2) coralline algal, and (3) bryozoan. Phylloid-algal buildups have a mound-core interval and a supra-mound interval. Hydrocarbons are stratigraphically trapped in porous and permeable lithotypes within the mound-core intervals of the lower part of the buildups and the more heterogeneous supramound intervals. To adequately represent the observed spatial heterogeneities in reservoir properties, the phylloid-algal bafflestones of the mound-core interval and the dolomites of the overlying supra-mound interval were subdivided into ten architecturally distinct lithotypes, each of which exhibits a characteristic set of reservoir properties obtained from outcrop analogs, cores, and geophysical logs. The Anasazi and Runway fields were selected for geostatistical modeling and reservoir compositional simulations. Models and simulations incorporated variations in carbonate lithotypes, porosity, and permeability to accurately predict reservoir responses. History matches tied previous production and reservoir pressure histories so that future reservoir performances could be confidently predicted. The simulation studies showed that despite most of the production being from the mound-core intervals, there were no corresponding decreases in the oil in place in these intervals. This behavior indicates gravity drainage of oil from the supra-mound intervals into the lower mound-core intervals from which the producing wells' major share of production arises. The key to increasing ultimate recovery from these fields (and similar fields in the basin) is to design either waterflood or CO{sub 2}-miscible flood projects capable of forcing oil from high-storage-capacity but low-recovery supra-mound units into the high-recovery mound-core units. Simulation of Anasazi field shows that a CO{sub 2} flood is technically superior to a waterflood and economically feasible. For Anasazi field, an optimized CO{sub 2} flood is predicted to recover a total 4.21 million barrels (0.67 million m3) of oil representing in excess of 89 percent of the original oil in place. For Runway field, the best CO{sub 2} flood is predicted to recover a total of 2.4 million barrels (0.38 million m3) of oil representing 71 percent of the original oil in place. If the CO{sub 2} flood performed as predicted, it is a financially robust process for increasing the reserves in the many small fields in the Paradox Basin. The results can be applied to other fields in the Rocky Mountain region, the Michigan and Illinois Basins, and the Midcontinent.« less
A New Physics-Based Modeling of Multiple Non-Planar Hydraulic Fractures Propagation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhou, Jing; Huang, Hai; Deo, Milind

Because of the low permeability in shale plays, closely spaced hydraulic fractures and multilateral horizontal wells are generally required to improve production. Therefore, understanding the potential fracture interaction and stress evolution is critical in optimizing fracture/well design and completion strategy in multi-stage horizontal wells. In this paper, a novel fully coupled reservoir flow and geomechanics model based on the dual-lattice system is developed to simulate multiple non-planar fractures propagation. The numerical model from Discrete Element Method (DEM) is used to simulate the mechanics of fracture propagations and interactions, while a conjugate irregular lattice network is generated to represent fluid flowmore » in both fractures and formation. The fluid flow in the formation is controlled by Darcy’s law, but within fractures it is simulated by using cubic law for laminar flow through parallel plates. Initiation, growth and coalescence of the microcracks will lead to the generation of macroscopic fractures, which is explicitly mimicked by failure and removal of bonds between particles from the discrete element network. We investigate the fracture propagation path in both homogeneous and heterogeneous reservoirs using the simulator developed. Stress shadow caused by the transverse fracture will change the orientation of principal stress in the fracture neighborhood, which may inhibit or alter the growth direction of nearby fracture clusters. However, the initial in-situ stress anisotropy often helps overcome this phenomenon. Under large in-situ stress anisotropy, the hydraulic fractures are more likely to propagate in a direction that is perpendicular to the minimum horizontal stress. Under small in-situ stress anisotropy, there is a greater chance for fractures from nearby clusters to merge with each other. Then, we examine the differences in fracture geometry caused by fracturing in cemented or uncemented wellbore. Moreover, the impact of intrinsic reservoir heterogeneity caused by the rock fabric and mineralogy on fracture nucleation and propagation paths is examined through a three-layered reservoir. Finally, we apply the method to a realistic heterogeneous dataset.« less
Intelligent control for modeling of real-time reservoir operation, part II: artificial neural network with operating rule curves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, Ya-Ting; Chang, Li-Chiu; Chang, Fi-John

2005-04-01

To bridge the gap between academic research and actual operation, we propose an intelligent control system for reservoir operation. The methodology includes two major processes, the knowledge acquired and implemented, and the inference system. In this study, a genetic algorithm (GA) and a fuzzy rule base (FRB) are used to extract knowledge based on the historical inflow data with a design objective function and on the operating rule curves respectively. The adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) is then used to implement the knowledge, to create the fuzzy inference system, and then to estimate the optimal reservoir operation. To investigate its applicability and practicability, the Shihmen reservoir, Taiwan, is used as a case study. For the purpose of comparison, a simulation of the currently used M-5 operating rule curve is also performed. The results demonstrate that (1) the GA is an efficient way to search the optimal input-output patterns, (2) the FRB can extract the knowledge from the operating rule curves, and (3) the ANFIS models built on different types of knowledge can produce much better performance than the traditional M-5 curves in real-time reservoir operation. Moreover, we show that the model can be more intelligent for reservoir operation if more information (or knowledge) is involved.
[Structure and function of Fenshuijiang Reservoir ecosystem based on the analysis with Ecopath model].

PubMed

Wu, Zhen; Jia, Pei-Qiao; Hu, Zhong-Jun; Chen, Li-Qiao; Gu, Zhi-Min; Liu, Qi-Gen

2012-03-01

Based on the 2008-2009 survey data of fishery resources and eco-environment of Fenshuijiang Reservoir, a mass balance model for the Reservoir ecosystem was constructed by Ecopath with Ecosim software. The model was composed of 14 functional groups, including silver carp, bighead carp, Hemibarbus maculates, Cutler alburnus, Microlepis and other fishes, Oligochaeta, aquatic insect, zooplankton, phytoplankton, and organic detritus, etc. , being able to better simulate Fenshuijiang Reservoir ecosystem. In this ecosystem, there were five trophic levels (TLs), and the nutrient flow mainly occurred in the first three TLs. Grazing and detritus food chains were the main energy flows in the ecosystem, but the food web was simpler and susceptible to be disturbed by outer environment. The transfer efficiency at lower TLs was relatively low, indicating that the ecosystem had a lower capability in energy utilization, and the excessive stock of nutrients in the ecosystem could lead to eutrophication. The lower connectance index, system omnivory index, Finn' s cycled index, and Finn's mean path length demonstrated that the ecosystem was unstable, while the high ecosystem property indices such as Pp/R and Pp/B showed that the ecosystem was immature and highly productive. It was suggested that Fenshuijiang Reservoir was still a developing new reservoir ecosystem, with a very short history and comparatively high primary productivity.
Constraining the Enceladus Plume and Understanding Its Physics via Numerical Simulation from Underground Source to Infinity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yeoh, S. K.; Li, Z.; Goldstein, D. B.; Varghese, P. L.; Trafton, L. M.; Levin, D. A.

2014-12-01

The Enceladus ice/vapor plume not only accounts for the various features observed in the Saturnian system, such as the E-ring, the narrow neutral H2O torus, and Enceladus' own bright albedo, but also raises exciting new possibilities, including the existence of liquid water on Enceladus. Therefore, understanding the plume and its physics is important. Here we assume that the plume arises from flow expansion within multiple narrow subsurface cracks connected to reservoirs of liquid water underground, and simulate this expanding flow from the underground reservoir out to several Enceladus radii where Cassini data are available for comparison. The direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) method is used to simulate the subsurface and near-field collisional regions and a free-molecular model is used to propagate the plume out into the far-field. We include the following physical processes in our simulations: the flow interaction with the crack walls, grain condensation from the vapor phase, non-equilibrium effects (e.g. freezing of molecular internal energy modes), the interaction between the vapor and the ice grains, the gravitational fields of Enceladus and Saturn, and Coriolis and centrifugal forces (due to motion in non-inertial reference frame). The end result is a plume model that includes the relevant physics of the flow from the underground source out to where Cassini measurements are taken. We have made certain assumptions about the channel geometry and reservoir conditions. The model is constrained using various available Cassini data (particularly those of INMS, CDA and UVIS) to understand the plume physics as well as estimate the vapor and grain production rates and its temporal variability.
Evaluating LSM-Based Water Budgets Over a West African Basin Assisted with a River Routing Scheme

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Getirana, Augusto C. V.; Boone, Aaron; Peugeot, Christophe

2014-01-01

Within the framework of the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA) Land Surface Model Intercomparison Project phase 2 (ALMIP-2), this study evaluates the water balance simulated by the Interactions between Soil, Biosphere, and Atmosphere (ISBA) over the upper Oum River basin, in Benin, using a mesoscale river routing scheme (RRS). The RRS is based on the nonlinear Muskingum Cunge method coupled with two linear reservoirs that simulate the time delay of both surface runoff and base flow that are produced by land surface models. On the basis of the evidence of a deep water-table recharge in that region,a reservoir representing the deep-water infiltration (DWI) is introduced. The hydrological processes of the basin are simulated for the 2005-08 AMMA field campaign period during which rainfall and stream flow data were intensively collected over the study area. Optimal RRS parameter sets were determined for three optimization experiments that were performed using daily stream flow at five gauges within the basin. Results demonstrate that the RRS simulates stream flow at all gauges with relative errors varying from -22% to 3% and Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients varying from 0.62 to 0.90. DWI varies from 24% to 67% of the base flow as a function of the sub-basin. The relatively simple reservoir DWI approach is quite robust, and further improvements would likely necessitate more complex solutions (e.g., considering seasonality and soil type in ISBA); thus, such modifications are recommended for future studies. Although the evaluation shows that the simulated stream flows are generally satisfactory, further field investigations are necessary to confirm some of the model assumptions.
Derivation of optimal joint operating rules for multi-purpose multi-reservoir water-supply system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tan, Qiao-feng; Wang, Xu; Wang, Hao; Wang, Chao; Lei, Xiao-hui; Xiong, Yi-song; Zhang, Wei

2017-08-01

The derivation of joint operating policy is a challenging task for a multi-purpose multi-reservoir system. This study proposed an aggregation-decomposition model to guide the joint operation of multi-purpose multi-reservoir system, including: (1) an aggregated model based on the improved hedging rule to ensure the long-term water-supply operating benefit; (2) a decomposed model to allocate the limited release to individual reservoirs for the purpose of maximizing the total profit of the facing period; and (3) a double-layer simulation-based optimization model to obtain the optimal time-varying hedging rules using the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm II, whose objectives were to minimize maximum water deficit and maximize water supply reliability. The water-supply system of Li River in Guangxi Province, China, was selected for the case study. The results show that the operating policy proposed in this study is better than conventional operating rules and aggregated standard operating policy for both water supply and hydropower generation due to the use of hedging mechanism and effective coordination among multiple objectives.
Hydrologic data for water years 1933-97 used in the River and Reservoir Operations Model, Truckee River basin, California and Nevada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Berris, Steven N.; Hess, Glen W.; Bohman, Larry R.

2000-01-01

Title II of Public Law 101-618, the Truckee?Carson?Pyramid Lake Water Rights Settlement Act of 1990, provides direction, authority, and a mechanism for resolving conflicts over water rights in the Truckee and Carson River Basins. The Truckee Carson Program of the U.S. Geological Survey, to support implementation of Public Law 101-618, has developed an operations model to simulate lake/reservoir and river operations for the Truckee River Basin including diversion of Truckee River water to the Truckee Canal for transport to the Carson River Basin. Several types of hydrologic data, formatted in a chronological order with a daily time interval called 'time series,' are described in this report. Time series from water years 1933 to 1997 can be used to run the operations model. Auxiliary hydrologic data not currently used by the model are also described. The time series of hydrologic data consist of flow, lake/reservoir elevation and storage, precipitation, evaporation, evapotranspiration, municipal and industrial (M&I) demand, and streamflow and lake/reservoir level forecast data.
Coupled THM Modeling of Hydroshearing Stimulation in Tight Fractured Volcanic Rock

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rinaldi, A. P.; Rutqvist, J.; Sonnenthal, E. L.

Here, we use the TOUGH-FLAC simulator for coupled thermo–hydro-mechanical modeling of well stimulation for an Enhanced Geothermal System (EGS) project. We also analyze the potential for injection-induced fracturing and reactivation of natural fractures in a porous medium with associated permeability enhancement. Our analysis aims to understand how far the EGS reservoir may grow and how the hydroshearing process relates to system conditions. We analyze the enhanced reservoir, or hydrosheared zone, by studying the extent of the failure zone using an elasto-plastic model, and accounting for permeability changes as a function of the induced stresses. For both fully saturated and unsaturatedmore » medium cases, the results demonstrate how EGS reservoir growth depends on the initial fluid phase, and how the reservoir extent changes as a function of two critical parameters: (1) the coefficient of friction, and (2) the permeability-enhancement factor. Furthermore, while well stimulation is driven by pressure exceeding the hydroshearing threshold, the modeling also demonstrates how injection-induced cooling further extends the effects of stimulation.« less
Coupled THM Modeling of Hydroshearing Stimulation in Tight Fractured Volcanic Rock

DOE PAGES

Rinaldi, A. P.; Rutqvist, J.; Sonnenthal, E. L.; ...

2014-03-18

Here, we use the TOUGH-FLAC simulator for coupled thermo–hydro-mechanical modeling of well stimulation for an Enhanced Geothermal System (EGS) project. We also analyze the potential for injection-induced fracturing and reactivation of natural fractures in a porous medium with associated permeability enhancement. Our analysis aims to understand how far the EGS reservoir may grow and how the hydroshearing process relates to system conditions. We analyze the enhanced reservoir, or hydrosheared zone, by studying the extent of the failure zone using an elasto-plastic model, and accounting for permeability changes as a function of the induced stresses. For both fully saturated and unsaturatedmore » medium cases, the results demonstrate how EGS reservoir growth depends on the initial fluid phase, and how the reservoir extent changes as a function of two critical parameters: (1) the coefficient of friction, and (2) the permeability-enhancement factor. Furthermore, while well stimulation is driven by pressure exceeding the hydroshearing threshold, the modeling also demonstrates how injection-induced cooling further extends the effects of stimulation.« less
[Review on HSPF model for simulation of hydrology and water quality processes].

PubMed

Li, Zhao-fu; Liu, Hong-Yu; Li, Yan

2012-07-01

Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF), written in FORTRAN, is one ol the best semi-distributed hydrology and water quality models, which was first developed based on the Stanford Watershed Model. Many studies on HSPF model application were conducted. It can represent the contributions of sediment, nutrients, pesticides, conservatives and fecal coliforms from agricultural areas, continuously simulate water quantity and quality processes, as well as the effects of climate change and land use change on water quantity and quality. HSPF consists of three basic application components: PERLND (Pervious Land Segment) IMPLND (Impervious Land Segment), and RCHRES (free-flowing reach or mixed reservoirs). In general, HSPF has extensive application in the modeling of hydrology or water quality processes and the analysis of climate change and land use change. However, it has limited use in China. The main problems with HSPF include: (1) some algorithms and procedures still need to revise, (2) due to the high standard for input data, the accuracy of the model is limited by spatial and attribute data, (3) the model is only applicable for the simulation of well-mixed rivers, reservoirs and one-dimensional water bodies, it must be integrated with other models to solve more complex problems. At present, studies on HSPF model development are still undergoing, such as revision of model platform, extension of model function, method development for model calibration, and analysis of parameter sensitivity. With the accumulation of basic data and imorovement of data sharing, the HSPF model will be applied more extensively in China.
Introducing GEOPHIRES v2.0: Updated Geothermal Techno-Economic Simulation Tool: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Beckers, Koenraad J; McCabe, Kevin

This paper presents an updated version of the geothermal techno-economic simulation tool GEOPHIRES (GEOthermal Energy for Production of Heat and electricity (IR) Economically Simulated). GEOPHIRES combines reservoir, wellbore, surface plant and economic models to estimate the capital, and operation and maintenance costs, lifetime energy production, and overall levelized cost of energy of a geothermal plant. The available end-use options are electricity, direct-use heat and cogeneration. The main updates in the new version include conversion of the source code from FORTRAN to Python, the option to couple to an external reservoir simulator, updated cost correlations, and more flexibility in selecting themore » time step and number of injection and production wells. An overview of all the updates and two case-studies to illustrate the tool's new capabilities are provided in this paper.« less
Reservoir transport and poroelastic properties from oscillating pore pressure experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hasanov, Azar K.

Hydraulic transport properties of reservoir rocks, permeability and storage capacity are traditionally defined as rock properties, responsible for the passage of fluids through the porous rock sample, as well as their storage. The evaluation of both is an important part of any reservoir characterization workflow. Moreover, permeability and storage capacity are main inputs into any reservoir simulation study, routinely performed by reservoir engineers on almost any major oil and gas field in the world. An accurate reservoir simulation is essential for production forecast and economic analysis, hence the transport properties directly control the profitability of the petroleum reservoir and their estimation is vital for oil and gas industry. This thesis is devoted to an integrated study of reservoir rocks' hydraulic, streaming potential and poroelastic properties as measured with the oscillating pore pressure experiment. The oscillating pore pressure method is traditionally used to measure hydraulic transport properties. We modified the method and built an experimental setup, capable of measuring all aforementioned rock properties simultaneously. The measurements were carried out for four conventional reservoir-rock quality samples at a range of oscillation frequencies and effective stresses. An apparent frequency dependence of permeability and streaming potential coupling coefficient was observed. Measured frequency dispersion of drained poroelastic properties indicates an intrinsically inelastic nature of the porous mineral rock frame. Standard Linear Model demonstrated the best fit to the experimental dispersion data. Pore collapse and grain crushing effects took place during hydrostatic loading of the dolomitic sample and were observed in permeability, coupling coefficient and poroelastic measurements simultaneously. I established that hydraulically-measured storage capacities are overestimated by almost one order of magnitude when compared to elastically-derived ones. The fact that the values of storage capacities as estimated from the hydraulic component of the oscillating pore pressure experiment are unreliable was also demonstrated by comparing poroelastic Biot and Skempton coefficients. These coefficients were estimated both from hydraulic and strain measurements and the comparison of two datasets points out ambiguity of hydraulic measurements. I also introduce a novel method, which allowed us to estimate the permeability from the full range of acquired frequency data by utilizing a nonlinear least-squares regression. I additionally performed numerical simulation of oscillatory fluid flow. The simulated frequency-dependent results displayed an excellent agreement with both analytical solution and experimental data. This agreement proves that numerical simulation is a powerful tool in predicting frequency response of a porous rock sample to harmonic pore pressure excitations.
Multiscale Modeling of Radioisotope Transfers in Watersheds, Rivers, Reservoirs and Ponds of Fukushima Prefecture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheleznyak, M.; Kivva, S.; Nanba, K.; Wakiyama, Y.; Konoplev, A.; Onda, Y.; Gallego, E.; Papush, L.; Maderych, V.

2015-12-01

The highest densities of the radioisotopes in fallout from the Fukushima Daiichi NPP in March 2011 were measured at the north eastern part of Fukushima Prefecture. The post-accidental aquatic transfer of cesium -134/137 includes multiscale processes: wash-off from the watersheds in solute and with the eroded soil, long-range transport in the rivers, deposition and resuspension of contaminated sediments in reservoirs and floodplains. The models of EU decision support system RODOS are used for predicting dynamics of 137Cs in the Fukushima surface waters and for assessing efficiency of the remediation measures. The transfer of 137Cs through the watershed of Niida River was simulated by DHSVM -R model that includes the modified code of the distributed hydrological and sediment transport model DHSVM (Lettenmayer, Wigmosta et al.) and new module of radionuclide transport. DHSMV-R was tested by modelling the wash-off from the USLE experimental plots in Fukushima prefecture. The model helps to quantify the influence of the differentiators of Fukushima and Chernobyl watersheds, - intensity of extreme precipitation and steepness of watershed, on the much higher values of the ratio "particulated cesium /soluted cesium" in Fukushima rivers than in Chernobyl rivers. Two dimensional model COASTOX and three dimensional model THREETOX are used to simulate the fate of 137Cs in water and sediments of reservoirs in the Manogawa River, Otagawa River, Mizunashigawa River, which transport 137Cs from the heavy contaminated watersheds to the populated areas at the Pacific coast. The modeling of the extreme floods generated by typhoons shows the resuspension of the bottom sediments from the heavy contaminated areas in reservoirs at the mouths of inflowing rivers at the peaks of floods and then re-deposition of 137Cs downstream in the deeper areas. The forecasts of 137Cs dynamics in bottom sediments of the reservoirs were calculated for the set of the scenarios of the sequences of the high floods of the next years. MOIRA -LAKE model of long term radioisotopes transfer in water, bottom sediment and fish was used for the assessments of the efficiency of the bottom sediment dredging for the remediation of the irrigation ponds at Okuma town.
Stochastic modeling of phosphorus transport in the Three Gorges Reservoir by incorporating variability associated with the phosphorus partition coefficient

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Huang, Lei; Fang, Hongwei; Xu, Xingya

Phosphorus (P) fate and transport plays a crucial role in the ecology of rivers and reservoirs in which eutrophication is limited by P. A key uncertainty in models used to help manage P in such systems is the partitioning of P to suspended and bed sediments. By analyzing data from field and laboratory experiments, we stochastically characterize the variability of the partition coefficient (Kd) and derive spatio-temporal solutions for P transport in the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR). We formulate a set of stochastic partial different equations (SPDEs) to simulate P transport by randomly sampling Kd from the measured distributions, tomore » obtain statistical descriptions of the P concentration and retention in the TGR. The correspondence between predicted and observed P concentrations and P retention in the TGR combined with the ability to effectively characterize uncertainty suggests that a model that incorporates the observed variability can better describe P dynamics and more effectively serve as a tool for P management in the system. This study highlights the importance of considering parametric uncertainty in estimating uncertainty/variability associated with simulated P transport.« less
Stochastic modeling of phosphorus transport in the Three Gorges Reservoir by incorporating variability associated with the phosphorus partition coefficient

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Huang, Lei; Fang, Hongwei; Xu, Xingya

Phosphorus (P) fate and transport plays a crucial role in the ecology of rivers and reservoirs in which eutrophication is limited by P. A key uncertainty in models used to help manage P in such systems is the partitioning of P to suspended and bed sediments. By analyzing data from field and laboratory experiments, we stochastically characterize the variability of the partition coefficient (Kd) and derive spatio-temporal solutions for P transport in the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR). Here, we formulate a set of stochastic partial different equations (SPDEs) to simulate P transport by randomly sampling Kd from the measured distributions,more » to obtain statistical descriptions of the P concentration and retention in the TGR. Furthermore, the correspondence between predicted and observed P concentrations and P retention in the TGR combined with the ability to effectively characterize uncertainty suggests that a model that incorporates the observed variability can better describe P dynamics and more effectively serve as a tool for P management in the system. Our study highlights the importance of considering parametric uncertainty in estimating uncertainty/variability associated with simulated P transport.« less
Stochastic modeling of phosphorus transport in the Three Gorges Reservoir by incorporating variability associated with the phosphorus partition coefficient

DOE PAGES

Huang, Lei; Fang, Hongwei; Xu, Xingya; ...

2017-08-01

Phosphorus (P) fate and transport plays a crucial role in the ecology of rivers and reservoirs in which eutrophication is limited by P. A key uncertainty in models used to help manage P in such systems is the partitioning of P to suspended and bed sediments. By analyzing data from field and laboratory experiments, we stochastically characterize the variability of the partition coefficient (Kd) and derive spatio-temporal solutions for P transport in the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR). Here, we formulate a set of stochastic partial different equations (SPDEs) to simulate P transport by randomly sampling Kd from the measured distributions,more » to obtain statistical descriptions of the P concentration and retention in the TGR. Furthermore, the correspondence between predicted and observed P concentrations and P retention in the TGR combined with the ability to effectively characterize uncertainty suggests that a model that incorporates the observed variability can better describe P dynamics and more effectively serve as a tool for P management in the system. Our study highlights the importance of considering parametric uncertainty in estimating uncertainty/variability associated with simulated P transport.« less

Multi-criteria objective based climate change impact assessment for multi-purpose multi-reservoir systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Müller, Ruben; Schütze, Niels

2014-05-01

Water resources systems with reservoirs are expected to be sensitive to climate change. Assessment studies that analyze the impact of climate change on the performance of reservoirs can be divided in two groups: (1) Studies that simulate the operation under projected inflows with the current set of operational rules. Due to non adapted operational rules the future performance of these reservoirs can be underestimated and the impact overestimated. (2) Studies that optimize the operational rules for best adaption of the system to the projected conditions before the assessment of the impact. The latter allows for estimating more realistically future performance and adaption strategies based on new operation rules are available if required. Multi-purpose reservoirs serve various, often conflicting functions. If all functions cannot be served simultaneously at a maximum level, an effective compromise between multiple objectives of the reservoir operation has to be provided. Yet under climate change the historically preferenced compromise may no longer be the most suitable compromise in the future. Therefore a multi-objective based climate change impact assessment approach for multi-purpose multi-reservoir systems is proposed in the study. Projected inflows are provided in a first step using a physically based rainfall-runoff model. In a second step, a time series model is applied to generate long-term inflow time series. Finally, the long-term inflow series are used as driving variables for a simulation-based multi-objective optimization of the reservoir system in order to derive optimal operation rules. As a result, the adapted Pareto-optimal set of diverse best compromise solutions can be presented to the decision maker in order to assist him in assessing climate change adaption measures with respect to the future performance of the multi-purpose reservoir system. The approach is tested on a multi-purpose multi-reservoir system in a mountainous catchment in Germany. A climate change assessment is performed for climate change scenarios based on the SRES emission scenarios A1B, B1 and A2 for a set of statistically downscaled meteorological data. The future performance of the multi-purpose multi-reservoir system is quantified and possible intensifications of trade-offs between management goals or reservoir utilizations are shown.
Optimal experimental design for placement of boreholes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Padalkina, Kateryna; Bücker, H. Martin; Seidler, Ralf; Rath, Volker; Marquart, Gabriele; Niederau, Jan; Herty, Michael

2014-05-01

Drilling for deep resources is an expensive endeavor. Among the many problems finding the optimal drilling location for boreholes is one of the challenging questions. We contribute to this discussion by using a simulation based assessment of possible future borehole locations. We study the problem of finding a new borehole location in a given geothermal reservoir in terms of a numerical optimization problem. In a geothermal reservoir the temporal and spatial distribution of temperature and hydraulic pressure may be simulated using the coupled differential equations for heat transport and mass and momentum conservation for Darcy flow. Within this model the permeability and thermal conductivity are dependent on the geological layers present in the subsurface model of the reservoir. In general, those values involve some uncertainty making it difficult to predict actual heat source in the ground. Within optimal experimental the question is which location and to which depth to drill the borehole in order to estimate conductivity and permeability with minimal uncertainty. We introduce a measure for computing the uncertainty based on simulations of the coupled differential equations. The measure is based on the Fisher information matrix of temperature data obtained through the simulations. We assume that the temperature data is available within the full borehole. A minimization of the measure representing the uncertainty in the unknown permeability and conductivity parameters is performed to determine the optimal borehole location. We present the theoretical framework as well as numerical results for several 2d subsurface models including up to six geological layers. Also, the effect of unknown layers on the introduced measure is studied. Finally, to obtain a more realistic estimate of optimal borehole locations, we couple the optimization to a cost model for deep drilling problems.
Faults simulations for three-dimensional reservoir-geomechanical models with the extended finite element method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prévost, Jean H.; Sukumar, N.

2016-01-01

Faults are geological entities with thicknesses several orders of magnitude smaller than the grid blocks typically used to discretize reservoir and/or over-under-burden geological formations. Introducing faults in a complex reservoir and/or geomechanical mesh therefore poses significant meshing difficulties. In this paper, we consider the strong-coupling of solid displacement and fluid pressure in a three-dimensional poro-mechanical (reservoir-geomechanical) model. We introduce faults in the mesh without meshing them explicitly, by using the extended finite element method (X-FEM) in which the nodes whose basis function support intersects the fault are enriched within the framework of partition of unity. For the geomechanics, the fault is treated as an internal displacement discontinuity that allows slipping to occur using a Mohr-Coulomb type criterion. For the reservoir, the fault is either an internal fluid flow conduit that allows fluid flow in the fault as well as to enter/leave the fault or is a barrier to flow (sealing fault). For internal fluid flow conduits, the continuous fluid pressure approximation admits a discontinuity in its normal derivative across the fault, whereas for an impermeable fault, the pressure approximation is discontinuous across the fault. Equal-order displacement and pressure approximations are used. Two- and three-dimensional benchmark computations are presented to verify the accuracy of the approach, and simulations are presented that reveal the influence of the rate of loading on the activation of faults.
System-level modeling for economic evaluation of geological CO2storage in gas reservoirs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Yingqi; Oldenburg, Curtis M.; Finsterle, Stefan

2006-03-02

One way to reduce the effects of anthropogenic greenhousegases on climate is to inject carbon dioxide (CO2) from industrialsources into deep geological formations such as brine aquifers ordepleted oil or gas reservoirs. Research is being conducted to improveunderstanding of factors affecting particular aspects of geological CO2storage (such as storage performance, storage capacity, and health,safety and environmental (HSE) issues) as well as to lower the cost ofCO2 capture and related processes. However, there has been less emphasisto date on system-level analyses of geological CO2 storage that considergeological, economic, and environmental issues by linking detailedprocess models to representations of engineering components andassociatedmore » economic models. The objective of this study is to develop asystem-level model for geological CO2 storage, including CO2 capture andseparation, compression, pipeline transportation to the storage site, andCO2 injection. Within our system model we are incorporating detailedreservoir simulations of CO2 injection into a gas reservoir and relatedenhanced production of methane. Potential leakage and associatedenvironmental impacts are also considered. The platform for thesystem-level model is GoldSim [GoldSim User's Guide. GoldSim TechnologyGroup; 2006, http://www.goldsim.com]. The application of the system modelfocuses on evaluating the feasibility of carbon sequestration withenhanced gas recovery (CSEGR) in the Rio Vista region of California. Thereservoir simulations are performed using a special module of the TOUGH2simulator, EOS7C, for multicomponent gas mixtures of methane and CO2.Using a system-level modeling approach, the economic benefits of enhancedgas recovery can be directly weighed against the costs and benefits ofCO2 injection.« less
Matlab Geochemistry: An open source geochemistry solver based on MRST

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McNeece, C. J.; Raynaud, X.; Nilsen, H.; Hesse, M. A.

2017-12-01

The study of geological systems often requires the solution of complex geochemical relations. To address this need we present an open source geochemical solver based on the Matlab Reservoir Simulation Toolbox (MRST) developed by SINTEF. The implementation supports non-isothermal multicomponent aqueous complexation, surface complexation, ion exchange, and dissolution/precipitation reactions. The suite of tools available in MRST allows for rapid model development, in particular the incorporation of geochemical calculations into transport simulations of multiple phases, complex domain geometry and geomechanics. Different numerical schemes and additional physics can be easily incorporated into the existing tools through the object-oriented framework employed by MRST. The solver leverages the automatic differentiation tools available in MRST to solve arbitrarily complex geochemical systems with any choice of species or element concentration as input. Four mathematical approaches enable the solver to be quite robust: 1) the choice of chemical elements as the basis components makes all entries in the composition matrix positive thus preserving convexity, 2) a log variable transformation is used which transfers the nonlinearity to the convex composition matrix, 3) a priori bounds on variables are calculated from the structure of the problem, constraining Netwon's path and 4) an initial guess is calculated implicitly by sequentially adding model complexity. As a benchmark we compare the model to experimental and semi-analytic solutions of the coupled salinity-acidity transport system. Together with the reservoir simulation capabilities of MRST the solver offers a promising tool for geochemical simulations in reservoir domains for applications in a diversity of fields from enhanced oil recovery to radionuclide storage.
Applying the World Water and Agriculture Model to Filling Scenarios for the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Villa, Daniel L.; Tidwell, Vincent C.; Passell, Howard D.

The World Water and Agriculture Model has been used to simulate water, hydropower, and food sector effects in Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia during the filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam reservoir. This unique capability allows tradeoffs to be made between filling policies for the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam reservoir. This Nile River Basin study is presented to illustrate the capacity to use the World Water and Agriculture Model to simulate regional food security issues while keeping a global perspective. The study uses runoff data from the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 and informationmore » from the literature in order to establish a reasonable set of hydrological initial conditions. Gross Domestic Product and population growth are modelled exogenously based on a composite projection of United Nations and World Bank data. The effects of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam under various percentages of water withheld are presented.« less
Assessing Climate Vulnerability and Resilience of a Major Water Resource System - Inverting the Paradigm for Specific Risk Quantification at Decision Making Points of Impact

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murphy, K. W.; Ellis, A. W.; Skindlov, J. A.

2015-12-01

Water resource systems have provided vital support to transformative growth in the Southwest United States and the Phoenix, Arizona metropolitan area where the Salt River Project (SRP) currently satisfies 40% of the area's water demand from reservoir storage and groundwater. Large natural variability and expectations of climate changes have sensitized water management to risks posed by future periods of excess and drought. The conventional approach to impacts assessment has been downscaled climate model simulations translated through hydrologic models; but, scenario ranges enlarge as uncertainties propagate through sequential levels of modeling complexity. The research often does not reach the stage of specific impact assessments, rendering future projections frustratingly uncertain and unsuitable for complex decision-making. Alternatively, this study inverts the common approach by beginning with the threatened water system and proceeding backwards to the uncertain climate future. The methodology is built upon reservoir system response modeling to exhaustive time series of climate-driven net basin supply. A reservoir operations model, developed with SRP guidance, assesses cumulative response to inflow variability and change. Complete statistical analyses of long-term historical watershed climate and runoff data are employed for 10,000-year stochastic simulations, rendering the entire range of multi-year extremes with full probabilistic characterization. Sets of climate change projections are then translated by temperature sensitivity and precipitation elasticity into future inflow distributions that are comparatively assessed with the reservoir operations model. This approach provides specific risk assessments in pragmatic terms familiar to decision makers, interpretable within the context of long-range planning and revealing a clearer meaning of climate change projections for the region. As a transferable example achieving actionable findings, the approach can guide other communities confronting water resource planning challenges.
Theoretical Assessment of the Impact of Climatic Factors in a Vibrio Cholerae Model.

PubMed

Kolaye, G; Damakoa, I; Bowong, S; Houe, R; Békollè, D

2018-05-04

A mathematical model for Vibrio Cholerae (V. Cholerae) in a closed environment is considered, with the aim of investigating the impact of climatic factors which exerts a direct influence on the bacterial metabolism and on the bacterial reservoir capacity. We first propose a V. Cholerae mathematical model in a closed environment. A sensitivity analysis using the eFast method was performed to show the most important parameters of the model. After, we extend this V. cholerae model by taking account climatic factors that influence the bacterial reservoir capacity. We present the theoretical analysis of the model. More precisely, we compute equilibria and study their stabilities. The stability of equilibria was investigated using the theory of periodic cooperative systems with a concave nonlinearity. Theoretical results are supported by numerical simulations which further suggest the necessity to implement sanitation campaigns of aquatic environments by using suitable products against the bacteria during the periods of growth of aquatic reservoirs.
Stochastic reservoir simulation for the modeling of uncertainty in coal seam degasification

PubMed Central

Karacan, C. Özgen; Olea, Ricardo A.

2018-01-01

Coal seam degasification improves coal mine safety by reducing the gas content of coal seams and also by generating added value as an energy source. Coal seam reservoir simulation is one of the most effective ways to help with these two main objectives. As in all modeling and simulation studies, how the reservoir is defined and whether observed productions can be predicted are important considerations. Using geostatistical realizations as spatial maps of different coal reservoir properties is a more realistic approach than assuming uniform properties across the field. In fact, this approach can help with simultaneous history matching of multiple wellbores to enhance the confidence in spatial models of different coal properties that are pertinent to degasification. The problem that still remains is the uncertainty in geostatistical simulations originating from the partial sampling of the seam that does not properly reflect the stochastic nature of coal property realizations. Stochastic simulations and using individual realizations, rather than E-type, make evaluation of uncertainty possible. This work is an advancement over Karacan et al. (2014) in the sense of assessing uncertainty that stems from geostatistical maps. In this work, we batched 100 individual realizations of 10 coal properties that were randomly generated to create 100 bundles and used them in 100 separate coal seam reservoir simulations for simultaneous history matching. We then evaluated the history matching errors for each bundle and defined the single set of realizations that would minimize the error for all wells. We further compared the errors with those of E-type and the average realization of the best matches. Unlike in Karacan et al. (2014), which used E-type maps and average of quantile maps, using these 100 bundles created 100 different history match results from separate simulations, and distributions of results for in-place gas quantity, for example, from which uncertainty in coal property realizations could be evaluated. The study helped to determine the realization bundle that consisted of the spatial maps of coal properties, which resulted in minimum error. In addition, it was shown that both E-type and the average of realizations that gave the best match for invidual approximated the same properties resonably. Moreover, the determined realization bundle showed that the study field initially had 151.5 million m3 (cubic meter) of gas and 1.04 million m3 water in the coal, corresponding to Q90 of the entire range of probability for gas and close to Q75 for water. In 2013, in-place fluid amounts decreased to 138.9 million m3 and 0.997 million m3 for gas and water, respectively. PMID:29563647
Quantifying human impacts on hydrological drought using a combined modelling approach in a tropical river basin in central Vietnam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Firoz, A. B. M.; Nauditt, Alexandra; Fink, Manfred; Ribbe, Lars

2018-01-01

Hydrological droughts are one of the most damaging disasters in terms of economic loss in central Vietnam and other regions of South-east Asia, severely affecting agricultural production and drinking water supply. Their increasing frequency and severity can be attributed to extended dry spells and increasing water abstractions for e.g. irrigation and hydropower development to meet the demand of dynamic socioeconomic development. Based on hydro-climatic data for the period from 1980 to 2013 and reservoir operation data, the impacts of recent hydropower development and other alterations of the hydrological network on downstream streamflow and drought risk were assessed for a mesoscale basin of steep topography in central Vietnam, the Vu Gia Thu Bon (VGTB) River basin. The Just Another Modelling System (JAMS)/J2000 was calibrated for the VGTB River basin to simulate reservoir inflow and the naturalized discharge time series for the downstream gauging stations. The HEC-ResSim reservoir operation model simulated reservoir outflow from eight major hydropower stations as well as the reconstructed streamflow for the main river branches Vu Gia and Thu Bon. Drought duration, severity, and frequency were analysed for different timescales for the naturalized and reconstructed streamflow by applying the daily varying threshold method. Efficiency statistics for both models show good results. A strong impact of reservoir operation on downstream discharge at the daily, monthly, seasonal, and annual scales was detected for four discharge stations relevant for downstream water allocation. We found a stronger hydrological drought risk for the Vu Gia river supplying water to the city of Da Nang and large irrigation systems especially in the dry season. We conclude that the calibrated model set-up provides a valuable tool to quantify the different origins of drought to support cross-sectorial water management and planning in a suitable way to be transferred to similar river basins.
Optimal Management of Geothermal Heat Extraction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patel, I. H.; Bielicki, J. M.; Buscheck, T. A.

2015-12-01

Geothermal energy technologies use the constant heat flux from the subsurface in order to produce heat or electricity for societal use. As such, a geothermal energy system is not inherently variable, like systems based on wind and solar resources, and an operator can conceivably control the rate at which heat is extracted and used directly, or converted into a commodity that is used. Although geothermal heat is a renewable resource, this heat can be depleted over time if the rate of heat extraction exceeds the natural rate of renewal (Rybach, 2003). For heat extraction used for commodities that are sold on the market, sustainability entails balancing the rate at which the reservoir renews with the rate at which heat is extracted and converted into profit, on a net present value basis. We present a model that couples natural resource economic approaches for managing renewable resources with simulations of geothermal reservoir performance in order to develop an optimal heat mining strategy that balances economic gain with the performance and renewability of the reservoir. Similar optimal control approaches have been extensively studied for renewable natural resource management of fisheries and forests (Bonfil, 2005; Gordon, 1954; Weitzman, 2003). Those models determine an optimal path of extraction of fish or timber, by balancing the regeneration of stocks of fish or timber that are not harvested with the profit from the sale of the fish or timber that is harvested. Our model balances the regeneration of reservoir temperature with the net proceeds from extracting heat and converting it to electricity that is sold to consumers. We used the Non-isothermal Unconfined-confined Flow and Transport (NUFT) model (Hao, Sun, & Nitao, 2011) to simulate the performance of a sedimentary geothermal reservoir under a variety of geologic and operational situations. The results of NUFT are incorporated into the natural resource economics model to determine production strategies that maximize net present value given the performance of the geothermal resource.
Quantifying the clay content with borehole depth and impact on reservoir flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarath Kumar, Aaraellu D.; Chattopadhyay, Pallavi B.

2017-04-01

This study focuses on the application of reservoir well log data and 3D transient numerical model for proper optimization of flow dynamics and hydrocarbon potential. Fluid flow through porous media depends on clay content that controls porosity, permeability and pore pressure. The pressure dependence of permeability is more pronounced in tight formations. Therefore, preliminary clay concentration analysis and geo-mechanical characterizations have been done by using wells logs. The assumption of a constant permeability for a reservoir is inappropriate and therefore the study deals with impact of permeability variation for pressure-sensitive formation. The study started with obtaining field data from available well logs. Then, the mathematical models are developed to understand the efficient extraction of oil in terms of reservoir architecture, porosity and permeability. The fluid flow simulations have been done using COMSOL Multiphysics Software by choosing time dependent subsurface flow module that is governed by Darcy's law. This study suggests that the reservoir should not be treated as a single homogeneous structure with unique porosity and permeability. The reservoir parameters change with varying clay content and it should be considered for effective planning and extraction of oil. There is an optimum drawdown for maximum production with varying permeability in a reservoir.
Transposition of a Process-Based Model, Flumy: from Meandering Fluvial Systems to Channelized Turbidite Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lemay, M.; Cojan, I.; Rivoirard, J.; Grimaud, J. L.; Ors, F.

2017-12-01

Channelized turbidite systems are among the most important hydrocarbon reservoirs. Yet building realistic turbidite reservoir models is still a challenge. Flumy has been firstly developed to simulate the long-term evolution of aggrading meandering fluvial systems in order to build facies reservoir models. In this study, Flumy has been transposed to channelized turbidite systems. The channel migration linear model of Imran et al. (1999) dedicated to subaqueous flows has been implemented. The whole model has been calibrated taking into account the differences on channel morphology, avulsion frequency, and aggradation and migration rates. This calibration and the comparison of the model to natural systems rely on: i) the channel planform morphology characterized by the meander wavelength, amplitude, and sinuosity; ii) the channel trajectory and the resulting stratigraphic architecture described using Jobe et al. (2016) indexes. Flumy succeeds in reproducing turbidite channel planform morphology as shown by the mean sinuosity of 1.7, the wavelength to width and amplitude to width ratios around 4 and 1 respectively. First-order meander architecture, characterized by the ratios meander belt width versus channel width, meander belt thickness versus channel depth, and the deduced stratigraphic mobility number (the ratio between lateral versus vertical channel displacements), is also well reproduced: 2.5, 3.8, and 0.6 respectively. Both lateral and downstream channel normalized migrations are around 3.5 times lower than in fluvial systems. All these values are absolutely coherent with the observations. In the other hand, the channel trajectory observed on seismic cross sections (hockey stick geometry) is not fully reproduced: the local stratigraphic mobility number is divided upward by 3 whereas up to 10 is expected. This behavior is generally explained in the literature by an increasing aggradation rate through time and/or flow stripping at outer bend that decreases lateral migration rate (Peakall et al., 2000). These processes are not currently simulated in Flumy, and need to be implemented. This study shows that Flumy model reproduces quite well the first order characteristics observed in the nature and can be used to simulate channelized turbidite reservoirs.
Geothermal reservoir simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mercer, J. W., Jr.; Faust, C.; Pinder, G. F.

1974-01-01

The prediction of long-term geothermal reservoir performance and the environmental impact of exploiting this resource are two important problems associated with the utilization of geothermal energy for power production. Our research effort addresses these problems through numerical simulation. Computer codes based on the solution of partial-differential equations using finite-element techniques are being prepared to simulate multiphase energy transport, energy transport in fractured porous reservoirs, well bore phenomena, and subsidence.
Deriving adaptive operating rules of hydropower reservoirs using time-varying parameters generated by the EnKF

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, Maoyuan; Liu, Pan; Guo, Shenglian; Shi, Liangsheng; Deng, Chao; Ming, Bo

2017-08-01

Operating rules have been used widely to decide reservoir operations because of their capacity for coping with uncertain inflow. However, stationary operating rules lack adaptability; thus, under changing environmental conditions, they cause inefficient reservoir operation. This paper derives adaptive operating rules based on time-varying parameters generated using the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). A deterministic optimization model is established to obtain optimal water releases, which are further taken as observations of the reservoir simulation model. The EnKF is formulated to update the operating rules sequentially, providing a series of time-varying parameters. To identify the index that dominates the variations of the operating rules, three hydrologic factors are selected: the reservoir inflow, ratio of future inflow to current available water, and available water. Finally, adaptive operating rules are derived by fitting the time-varying parameters with the identified dominant hydrologic factor. China's Three Gorges Reservoir was selected as a case study. Results show that (1) the EnKF has the capability of capturing the variations of the operating rules, (2) reservoir inflow is the factor that dominates the variations of the operating rules, and (3) the derived adaptive operating rules are effective in improving hydropower benefits compared with stationary operating rules. The insightful findings of this study could be used to help adapt reservoir operations to mitigate the effects of changing environmental conditions.
Long-term ensemble forecast of snowmelt inflow into the Cheboksary Reservoir under two different weather scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gelfan, Alexander; Moreydo, Vsevolod; Motovilov, Yury; Solomatine, Dimitri P.

2018-04-01

A long-term forecasting ensemble methodology, applied to water inflows into the Cheboksary Reservoir (Russia), is presented. The methodology is based on a version of the semi-distributed hydrological model ECOMAG (ECOlogical Model for Applied Geophysics) that allows for the calculation of an ensemble of inflow hydrographs using two different sets of weather ensembles for the lead time period: observed weather data, constructed on the basis of the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction methodology (ESP-based forecast), and synthetic weather data, simulated by a multi-site weather generator (WG-based forecast). We have studied the following: (1) whether there is any advantage of the developed ensemble forecasts in comparison with the currently issued operational forecasts of water inflow into the Cheboksary Reservoir, and (2) whether there is any noticeable improvement in probabilistic forecasts when using the WG-simulated ensemble compared to the ESP-based ensemble. We have found that for a 35-year period beginning from the reservoir filling in 1982, both continuous and binary model-based ensemble forecasts (issued in the deterministic form) outperform the operational forecasts of the April-June inflow volume actually used and, additionally, provide acceptable forecasts of additional water regime characteristics besides the inflow volume. We have also demonstrated that the model performance measures (in the verification period) obtained from the WG-based probabilistic forecasts, which are based on a large number of possible weather scenarios, appeared to be more statistically reliable than the corresponding measures calculated from the ESP-based forecasts based on the observed weather scenarios.
Exploring the impact of co-varying water availability and energy price on productivity and profitability of Alpine hydropower

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anghileri, Daniela; Botter, Martina; Castelletti, Andrea; Burlando, Paolo

2016-04-01

Alpine hydropower systems are experiencing dramatic changes both from the point of view of hydrological conditions, e.g., water availability and frequency of extremes events, and of energy market conditions, e.g., partial or total liberalization of the market and increasing share of renewable power sources. Scientific literature has, so far, mostly focused on the analysis of climate change impacts and associated uncertainty on hydropower operation, underlooking the consequences that socio-economic changes, e.g., energy demand and/or price changes, can have on hydropower productivity and profitability. In this work, we analyse how hydropower reservoir operation is affected by changes in both water availability and energy price. We consider stochastically downscaled climate change scenarios of precipitation and temperature to simulate reservoir inflows using a physically explicit hydrological model. We consider different scenarios of energy demand and generation mix to simulate energy prices using an electricity market model, which includes different generation sources, demand sinks, and features of the transmission lines. We then use Multi-Objective optimization techniques to design the operation of hydropower reservoirs for different purposes, e.g. maximization of revenue and/or energy production. The objective of the work is to assess how the tradeoffs between the multiple operating objectives evolve under different co-varying climate change and socio-economic scenarios and to assess the adaptive capacity of the system. The modeling framework is tested on the real-world case study of the Mattmark reservoir in Switzerland.
Assessment of Folsom Lake Watershed response to historical and potential future climate scenarios

USGS Publications Warehouse

Carpenter, Theresa M.; Georgakakos, Konstantine P.

2000-01-01

An integrated forecast-control system was designed to allow the profitable use of ensemble forecasts for the operational management of multi-purpose reservoirs. The system ingests large-scale climate model monthly precipitation through the adjustment of the marginal distribution of reservoir-catchment precipitation to reflect occurrence of monthly climate precipitation amounts in the extreme terciles of their distribution. Generation of ensemble reservoir inflow forecasts is then accomplished with due account for atmospheric- forcing and hydrologic- model uncertainties. These ensemble forecasts are ingested by the decision component of the integrated system, which generates non- inferior trade-off surfaces and, given management preferences, estimates of reservoir- management benefits over given periods. In collaboration with the Bureau of Reclamation and the California Nevada River Forecast Center, the integrated system is applied to Folsom Lake in California to evaluate the benefits for flood control, hydroelectric energy production, and low flow augmentation. In addition to retrospective studies involving the historical period 1964-1993, system simulations were performed for the future period 2001-2030, under a control (constant future greenhouse-gas concentrations assumed at the present levels) and a greenhouse-gas- increase (1-% per annum increase assumed) scenario. The present paper presents and validates ensemble 30-day reservoir- inflow forecasts under a variety of situations. Corresponding reservoir management results are presented in Yao and Georgakakos, A., this issue. Principle conclusions of this paper are that the integrated system provides reliable ensemble inflow volume forecasts at the 5-% confidence level for the majority of the deciles of forecast frequency, and that the use of climate model simulations is beneficial mainly during high flow periods. It is also found that, for future periods with potential sharp climatic increases of precipitation amount and to maintain good reliability levels, operational ensemble inflow forecasting should involve atmospheric forcing from appropriate climatic periods.
An intelligent agent for optimal river-reservoir system management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rieker, Jeffrey D.; Labadie, John W.

2012-09-01

A generalized software package is presented for developing an intelligent agent for stochastic optimization of complex river-reservoir system management and operations. Reinforcement learning is an approach to artificial intelligence for developing a decision-making agent that learns the best operational policies without the need for explicit probabilistic models of hydrologic system behavior. The agent learns these strategies experientially in a Markov decision process through observational interaction with the environment and simulation of the river-reservoir system using well-calibrated models. The graphical user interface for the reinforcement learning process controller includes numerous learning method options and dynamic displays for visualizing the adaptive behavior of the agent. As a case study, the generalized reinforcement learning software is applied to developing an intelligent agent for optimal management of water stored in the Truckee river-reservoir system of California and Nevada for the purpose of streamflow augmentation for water quality enhancement. The intelligent agent successfully learns long-term reservoir operational policies that specifically focus on mitigating water temperature extremes during persistent drought periods that jeopardize the survival of threatened and endangered fish species.
Application of random seismic inversion method based on tectonic model in thin sand body research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dianju, W.; Jianghai, L.; Qingkai, F.

2017-12-01

The oil and gas exploitation at Songliao Basin, Northeast China have already progressed to the period with high water production. The previous detailed reservoir description that based on seismic image, sediment core, borehole logging has great limitations in small scale structural interpretation and thin sand body characterization. Thus, precise guidance for petroleum exploration is badly in need of a more advanced method. To do so, we derived the method of random seismic inversion constrained by tectonic model.It can effectively improve the depicting ability of thin sand bodies, combining numerical simulation techniques, which can credibly reducing the blindness of reservoir analysis from the whole to the local and from the macroscopic to the microscopic. At the same time, this can reduce the limitations of the study under the constraints of different geological conditions of the reservoir, accomplish probably the exact estimation for the effective reservoir. Based on the research, this paper has optimized the regional effective reservoir evaluation and the productive location adjustment of applicability, combined with the practical exploration and development in Aonan oil field.

Computer-program documentation of an interactive-accounting model to simulate streamflow, water quality, and water-supply operations in a river basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burns, A.W.

1988-01-01

This report describes an interactive-accounting model used to simulate streamflow, chemical-constituent concentrations and loads, and water-supply operations in a river basin. The model uses regression equations to compute flow from incremental (internode) drainage areas. Conservative chemical constituents (typically dissolved solids) also are computed from regression equations. Both flow and water quality loads are accumulated downstream. Optionally, the model simulates the water use and the simplified groundwater systems of a basin. Water users include agricultural, municipal, industrial, and in-stream users , and reservoir operators. Water users list their potential water sources, including direct diversions, groundwater pumpage, interbasin imports, or reservoir releases, in the order in which they will be used. Direct diversions conform to basinwide water law priorities. The model is interactive, and although the input data exist in files, the user can modify them interactively. A major feature of the model is its color-graphic-output options. This report includes a description of the model, organizational charts of subroutines, and examples of the graphics. Detailed format instructions for the input data, example files of input data, definitions of program variables, and listing of the FORTRAN source code are Attachments to the report. (USGS)
Integrated modeling and field study of potential mechanisms forinduced seismicity at The Geysers Goethermal Field, California

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rutqvist, Jonny; Majer, Ernie; Oldenburg, Curt

2006-06-07

In this paper, we present progress made in a study aimed atincreasing the understanding of the relative contributions of differentmechanisms that may be causing the seismicity occurring at The Geysersgeothermal field, California. The approach we take is to integrate: (1)coupled reservoir geomechanical numerical modeling, (2) data fromrecently upgraded and expanded NCPA/Calpine/LBNL seismic arrays, and (3)tens of years of archival InSAR data from monthly satellite passes. Wehave conducted a coupled reservoir geomechanical analysis to studypotential mechanisms induced by steam production. Our simulation resultscorroborate co-locations of hypocenter field observations of inducedseismicity and their correlation with steam production as reported in theliterature. Seismicmore » and InSAR data are being collected and processed foruse in constraining the coupled reservoir geomechanicalmodel.« less
Prediction of Gas Injection Performance for Heterogeneous Reservoirs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Blunt, Martin J.; Orr, Franklin M.

This report describes research carried out in the Department of Petroleum Engineering at Stanford University from September 1997 - September 1998 under the second year of a three-year grant from the Department of Energy on the "Prediction of Gas Injection Performance for Heterogeneous Reservoirs." The research effort is an integrated study of the factors affecting gas injection, from the pore scale to the field scale, and involves theoretical analysis, laboratory experiments, and numerical simulation. The original proposal described research in four areas: (1) Pore scale modeling of three phase flow in porous media; (2) Laboratory experiments and analysis of factorsmore » influencing gas injection performance at the core scale with an emphasis on the fundamentals of three phase flow; (3) Benchmark simulations of gas injection at the field scale; and (4) Development of streamline-based reservoir simulator. Each state of the research is planned to provide input and insight into the next stage, such that at the end we should have an integrated understanding of the key factors affecting field scale displacements.« less
A Stochastic Dynamic Programming Model With Fuzzy Storage States Applied to Reservoir Operation Optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mousavi, Seyed Jamshid; Mahdizadeh, Kourosh; Afshar, Abbas

2004-08-01

Application of stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) models to reservoir optimization calls for state variables discretization. As an important variable discretization of reservoir storage volume has a pronounced effect on the computational efforts. The error caused by storage volume discretization is examined by considering it as a fuzzy state variable. In this approach, the point-to-point transitions between storage volumes at the beginning and end of each period are replaced by transitions between storage intervals. This is achieved by using fuzzy arithmetic operations with fuzzy numbers. In this approach, instead of aggregating single-valued crisp numbers, the membership functions of fuzzy numbers are combined. Running a simulated model with optimal release policies derived from fuzzy and non-fuzzy SDP models shows that a fuzzy SDP with a coarse discretization scheme performs as well as a classical SDP having much finer discretized space. It is believed that this advantage in the fuzzy SDP model is due to the smooth transitions between storage intervals which benefit from soft boundaries.
Modeling of Gas Production from Shale Reservoirs Considering Multiple Transport Mechanisms.

PubMed

Guo, Chaohua; Wei, Mingzhen; Liu, Hong

2015-01-01

Gas transport in unconventional shale strata is a multi-mechanism-coupling process that is different from the process observed in conventional reservoirs. In micro fractures which are inborn or induced by hydraulic stimulation, viscous flow dominates. And gas surface diffusion and gas desorption should be further considered in organic nano pores. Also, the Klinkenberg effect should be considered when dealing with the gas transport problem. In addition, following two factors can play significant roles under certain circumstances but have not received enough attention in previous models. During pressure depletion, gas viscosity will change with Knudsen number; and pore radius will increase when the adsorption gas desorbs from the pore wall. In this paper, a comprehensive mathematical model that incorporates all known mechanisms for simulating gas flow in shale strata is presented. The objective of this study was to provide a more accurate reservoir model for simulation based on the flow mechanisms in the pore scale and formation geometry. Complex mechanisms, including viscous flow, Knudsen diffusion, slip flow, and desorption, are optionally integrated into different continua in the model. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to evaluate the effect of different mechanisms on the gas production. The results showed that adsorption and gas viscosity change will have a great impact on gas production. Ignoring one of following scenarios, such as adsorption, gas permeability change, gas viscosity change, or pore radius change, will underestimate gas production.
Modeling of Gas Production from Shale Reservoirs Considering Multiple Transport Mechanisms

PubMed Central

Guo, Chaohua; Wei, Mingzhen; Liu, Hong

2015-01-01

Gas transport in unconventional shale strata is a multi-mechanism-coupling process that is different from the process observed in conventional reservoirs. In micro fractures which are inborn or induced by hydraulic stimulation, viscous flow dominates. And gas surface diffusion and gas desorption should be further considered in organic nano pores. Also, the Klinkenberg effect should be considered when dealing with the gas transport problem. In addition, following two factors can play significant roles under certain circumstances but have not received enough attention in previous models. During pressure depletion, gas viscosity will change with Knudsen number; and pore radius will increase when the adsorption gas desorbs from the pore wall. In this paper, a comprehensive mathematical model that incorporates all known mechanisms for simulating gas flow in shale strata is presented. The objective of this study was to provide a more accurate reservoir model for simulation based on the flow mechanisms in the pore scale and formation geometry. Complex mechanisms, including viscous flow, Knudsen diffusion, slip flow, and desorption, are optionally integrated into different continua in the model. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to evaluate the effect of different mechanisms on the gas production. The results showed that adsorption and gas viscosity change will have a great impact on gas production. Ignoring one of following scenarios, such as adsorption, gas permeability change, gas viscosity change, or pore radius change, will underestimate gas production. PMID:26657698
Prediction of the fate and transport processes of atrazine in a reservoir.

PubMed

Chung, Se-Woong; Gu, Roy R

2009-07-01

The fate and transport processes of a toxic chemical such as atrazine, an herbicide, in a reservoir are significantly influenced by hydrodynamic regimes of the reservoir. The two-dimensional (2D) laterally-integrated hydrodynamics and mass transport model, CE-QUAL-W2, was enhanced by incorporating a submodel for toxic contaminants and applied to Saylorville Reservoir, Iowa. The submodel describes the physical, chemical, and biological processes and predicts unsteady vertical and longitudinal distributions of a toxic chemical. The simulation results from the enhanced 2D reservoir model were validated by measured temperatures and atrazine concentrations in the reservoir. Although a strong thermal stratification was not identified from both observed and predicted water temperatures, the spatial variation of atrazine concentrations was largely affected by seasonal flow circulation patterns in the reservoir. In particular, the results showed the effect of flow circulation on spatial distribution of atrazine during summer months as the river flow formed an underflow within the reservoir and resulted in greater concentrations near the surface of the reservoir. Atrazine concentrations in the reservoir peaked around the end of May and early June. A good agreement between predicted and observed times and magnitudes of peak concentrations was obtained. The use of time-variable decay rates of atrazine led to more accurate prediction of atrazine concentrations, while the use of a constant half-life (60 days) over the entire period resulted in a 40% overestimation of peak concentrations. The results provide a better understanding of the fate and transport of atrazine in the reservoir and information useful in the development of reservoir operation strategies with respect to timing, amount, and depth of withdrawal.
Probabilistic approach of resource assessment in Kerinci geothermal field using numerical simulation coupling with monte carlo simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hidayat, Iki; Sutopo; Pratama, Heru Berian

2017-12-01

The Kerinci geothermal field is one phase liquid reservoir system in the Kerinci District, western part of Jambi Province. In this field, there are geothermal prospects that identified by the heat source up flow inside a National Park area. Kerinci field was planned to develop 1×55 MWe by Pertamina Geothermal Energy. To define reservoir characterization, the numerical simulation of Kerinci field is developed by using TOUGH2 software with information from conceptual model. The pressure and temperature profile well data of KRC-B1 are validated with simulation data to reach natural state condition. The result of the validation is suitable matching. Based on natural state simulation, the resource assessment of Kerinci geothermal field is estimated by using Monte Carlo simulation with the result P10-P50-P90 are 49.4 MW, 64.3 MW and 82.4 MW respectively. This paper is the first study of resource assessment that has been estimated successfully in Kerinci Geothermal Field using numerical simulation coupling with Monte carlo simulation.
Class III Mid-Term Project, "Increasing Heavy Oil Reserves in the Wilmington Oil Field Through Advanced Reservoir Characterization and Thermal Production Technologies"

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Scott Hara

2007-03-31

The overall objective of this project was to increase heavy oil reserves in slope and basin clastic (SBC) reservoirs through the application of advanced reservoir characterization and thermal production technologies. The project involved improving thermal recovery techniques in the Tar Zone of Fault Blocks II-A and V (Tar II-A and Tar V) of the Wilmington Field in Los Angeles County, near Long Beach, California. A primary objective has been to transfer technology that can be applied in other heavy oil formations of the Wilmington Field and other SBC reservoirs, including those under waterflood. The first budget period addressed several producibilitymore » problems in the Tar II-A and Tar V thermal recovery operations that are common in SBC reservoirs. A few of the advanced technologies developed include a three-dimensional (3-D) deterministic geologic model, a 3-D deterministic thermal reservoir simulation model to aid in reservoir management and subsequent post-steamflood development work, and a detailed study on the geochemical interactions between the steam and the formation rocks and fluids. State of the art operational work included drilling and performing a pilot steam injection and production project via four new horizontal wells (2 producers and 2 injectors), implementing a hot water alternating steam (WAS) drive pilot in the existing steamflood area to improve thermal efficiency, installing a 2400-foot insulated, subsurface harbor channel crossing to supply steam to an island location, testing a novel alkaline steam completion technique to control well sanding problems, and starting on an advanced reservoir management system through computer-aided access to production and geologic data to integrate reservoir characterization, engineering, monitoring, and evaluation. The second budget period phase (BP2) continued to implement state-of-the-art operational work to optimize thermal recovery processes, improve well drilling and completion practices, and evaluate the geomechanical characteristics of the producing formations. The objectives were to further improve reservoir characterization of the heterogeneous turbidite sands, test the proficiency of the three-dimensional geologic and thermal reservoir simulation models, identify the high permeability thief zones to reduce water breakthrough and cycling, and analyze the nonuniform distribution of the remaining oil in place. This work resulted in the redevelopment of the Tar II-A and Tar V post-steamflood projects by drilling several new wells and converting idle wells to improve injection sweep efficiency and more effectively drain the remaining oil reserves. Reservoir management work included reducing water cuts, maintaining or increasing oil production, and evaluating and minimizing further thermal-related formation compaction. The BP2 project utilized all the tools and knowledge gained throughout the DOE project to maximize recovery of the oil in place.« less
Maximization of permanent trapping of CO{sub 2} and co-contaminants in the highest-porosity formations of the Rock Springs Uplift (Southwest Wyoming): experimentation and multi-scale modeling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Piri, Mohammad

2014-03-31

Under this project, a multidisciplinary team of researchers at the University of Wyoming combined state-of-the-art experimental studies, numerical pore- and reservoir-scale modeling, and high performance computing to investigate trapping mechanisms relevant to geologic storage of mixed scCO{sub 2} in deep saline aquifers. The research included investigations in three fundamental areas: (i) the experimental determination of two-phase flow relative permeability functions, relative permeability hysteresis, and residual trapping under reservoir conditions for mixed scCO{sub 2}-brine systems; (ii) improved understanding of permanent trapping mechanisms; (iii) scientifically correct, fine grid numerical simulations of CO{sub 2} storage in deep saline aquifers taking into account themore » underlying rock heterogeneity. The specific activities included: (1) Measurement of reservoir-conditions drainage and imbibition relative permeabilities, irreducible brine and residual mixed scCO{sub 2} saturations, and relative permeability scanning curves (hysteresis) in rock samples from RSU; (2) Characterization of wettability through measurements of contact angles and interfacial tensions under reservoir conditions; (3) Development of physically-based dynamic core-scale pore network model; (4) Development of new, improved high-performance modules for the UW-team simulator to provide new capabilities to the existing model to include hysteresis in the relative permeability functions, geomechanical deformation and an equilibrium calculation (Both pore- and core-scale models were rigorously validated against well-characterized core- flooding experiments); and (5) An analysis of long term permanent trapping of mixed scCO{sub 2} through high-resolution numerical experiments and analytical solutions. The analysis takes into account formation heterogeneity, capillary trapping, and relative permeability hysteresis.« less
Modeling of fault reactivation and induced seismicity during hydraulic fracturing of shale-gas reservoirs

EPA Science Inventory

We have conducted numerical simulation studies to assess the potential for injection-induced fault reactivation and notable seismic events associated with shale-gas hydraulic fracturing operations. The modeling is generally tuned toward conditions usually encountered in the Marce...
Simulation study to determine the feasibility of injecting hydrogen sulfide, carbon dioxide and nitrogen gas injection to improve gas and oil recovery oil-rim reservoir

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eid, Mohamed El Gohary

This study is combining two important and complicated processes; Enhanced Oil Recovery, EOR, from the oil rim and Enhanced Gas Recovery, EGR from the gas cap using nonhydrocarbon injection gases. EOR is proven technology that is continuously evolving to meet increased demand and oil production and desire to augment oil reserves. On the other hand, the rapid growth of the industrial and urban development has generated an unprecedented power demand, particularly during summer months. The required gas supplies to meet this demand are being stretched. To free up gas supply, alternative injectants to hydrocarbon gas are being reviewed to support reservoir pressure and maximize oil and gas recovery in oil rim reservoirs. In this study, a multi layered heterogeneous gas reservoir with an oil rim was selected to identify the most optimized development plan for maximum oil and gas recovery. The integrated reservoir characterization model and the pertinent transformed reservoir simulation history matched model were quality assured and quality checked. The development scheme is identified, in which the pattern and completion of the wells are optimized to best adapt to the heterogeneity of the reservoir. Lateral and maximum block contact holes will be investigated. The non-hydrocarbon gases considered for this study are hydrogen sulphide, carbon dioxide and nitrogen, utilized to investigate miscible and immiscible EOR processes. In November 2010, re-vaporization study, was completed successfully, the first in the UAE, with an ultimate objective is to examine the gas and condensate production in gas reservoir using non hydrocarbon gases. Field development options and proces schemes as well as reservoir management and long term business plans including phases of implementation will be identified and assured. The development option that maximizes the ultimate recovery factor will be evaluated and selected. The study achieved satisfactory results in integrating gas and oil reservoir management methodology to maximize both fluid recovery and free up currently injected HC gases for domestic consumption. Moreover, this study identified the main uncertainty parameters impacting the gas and oil production performance with all proposed alternatives. Maximizing both fluids oil and gas in oil rim reservoir are challenging. The reservoir heterogeneity will have a major impact on the performance of non hydrocarbon gas flooding. Therefore, good reservoir description is a key to achieve acceptable development process and make reliable prediction. The lab study data were used successfully to as a tool to identify the range of uncertainty parameters that are impacting the hydrocarbon recovery.
INCREASING HEAVY OIL RESERVES IN THE WILMINGTON OIL FIELD THROUGH ADVANCED RESERVOIR CHARACTERIZATION AND THERMAL PRODUCTION TECHNOLOGIES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Unknown

2001-08-08

The objective of this project is to increase the recoverable heavy oil reserves within sections of the Wilmington Oil Field, near Long Beach, California, through the testing and application of advanced reservoir characterization and thermal production technologies. The hope is that successful application of these technologies will result in their implementation throughout the Wilmington Field and, through technology transfer, will be extended to increase the recoverable oil reserves in other slope and basin clastic (SBC) reservoirs. The existing steamflood in the Tar zone of Fault Block II-A (Tar II-A) has been relatively inefficient because of several producibility problems which aremore » common in SBC reservoirs: inadequate characterization of the heterogeneous turbidite sands, high permeability thief zones, low gravity oil and non-uniform distribution of the remaining oil. This has resulted in poor sweep efficiency, high steam-oil ratios, and early steam breakthrough. Operational problems related to steam breakthrough, high reservoir pressure, and unconsolidated sands have caused premature well and downhole equipment failures. In aggregate, these reservoir and operational constraints have resulted in increased operating costs and decreased recoverable reserves. A suite of advanced reservoir characterization and thermal production technologies are being applied during the project to improve oil recovery and reduce operating costs, including: (1) Development of three-dimensional (3-D) deterministic and stochastic reservoir simulation models--thermal or otherwise--to aid in reservoir management of the steamflood and post-steamflood phases and subsequent development work. (2) Development of computerized 3-D visualizations of the geologic and reservoir simulation models to aid reservoir surveillance and operations. (3) Perform detailed studies of the geochemical interactions between the steam and the formation rock and fluids. (4) Testing and proposed application of a novel alkaline-steam well completion technique for the containment of the unconsolidated formation sands and control of fluid entry and injection profiles. (5) Installation of a 2100 ft, 14 inch insulated, steam line beneath a harbor channel to supply steam to an island location. (6) Testing and proposed application of thermal recovery technologies to increase oil production and reserves: (a) Performing pilot tests of cyclic steam injection and production on new horizontal wells. (b) Performing pilot tests of hot water-alternating-steam (WAS) drive in the existing steam drive area to improve thermal efficiency. (7) Perform a pilot steamflood with the four horizontal injectors and producers using a pseudo steam-assisted gravity-drainage (SAGD) process. (8) Advanced reservoir management, through computer-aided access to production and geologic data to integrate reservoir characterization, engineering, monitoring and evaluation.« less
Detecting subsurface fluid leaks in real-time using injection and production rates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, Harpreet; Huerta, Nicolas J.

2017-12-01

CO2 injection into geologic formations for either enhanced oil recovery or carbon storage introduces a risk for undesired fluid leakage into overlying groundwater or to the surface. Despite decades of subsurface CO2 production and injection, the technologies and methods for detecting CO2 leaks are still costly and prone to large uncertainties. This is especially true for pressure-based monitoring methods, which require the use of simplified geological and reservoir flow models to simulate the pressure behavior as well as background noise affecting pressure measurements. In this study, we propose a method to detect the time and volume of fluid leakage based on real-time measurements of well injection and production rates. The approach utilizes analogies between fluid flow and capacitance-resistance modeling. Unlike other leak detection methods (e.g. pressure-based), the proposed method does not require geological and reservoir flow models to simulate the behavior that often carry significant sources of uncertainty; therefore, with our approach the leak can be detected with greater certainty. The method can be applied to detect when a leak begins by tracking a departure in fluid production rate from the expected pattern. The method has been tuned to detect the effect of boundary conditions and fluid compressibility on leakage. To highlight the utility of this approach we use our method to detect leaks for two scenarios. The first scenario simulates a fluid leak from the storage formation into an above-zone monitoring interval. The second scenario simulates intra-reservoir migration between two compartments. We illustrate this method to detect fluid leakage in three different reservoirs with varying levels of geological and structural complexity. The proposed leakage detection method has three novelties: i) requires only readily-available data (injection and production rates), ii) accounts for fluid compressibility and boundary effects, and iii) in addition to detecting the time when a leak is activated and the volume of that leakage, this method provides an insight about the leak location, and reservoir connectivity. We are proposing this as a complementary method that can be used with other, more expensive, methods early on in the injection process. This will allow an operator to conduct more expensive surveys less often because the proposed method can show if there are no leaks on a monthly basis that is cheap and fast.
The Impact of Corps Flood Control Reservoirs in the June 2008 Upper Mississippi Flood

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Charley, W. J.; Stiman, J. A.

2008-12-01

The US Army Corps of Engineers is responsible for a multitude of flood control project on the Mississippi River and its tributaries, including levees that protect land from flooding, and dams to help regulate river flows. The first six months of 2008 were the wettest on record in the upper Mississippi Basin. During the first 2 weeks of June, rainfall over the Midwest ranged from 6 to as much as 16 inches, overwhelming the flood protection system, causing massive flooding and damage. Most severely impacted were the States of Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, and Wisconsin. In Iowa, flooding occurred on almost every river in the state. On the Iowa River, record flooding occurred from Marshalltown, Iowa, downstream to its confluence with the Mississippi River. At several locations, flooding exceeded the 500-year event. The flooding affected agriculture, transportation, and infrastructure, including homes, businesses, levees, and other water-control structures. It has been estimated that there was at least 7 billion dollars in damages. While the flooding in Iowa was extraordinary, Corps of Engineers flood control reservoirs helped limit damage and prevent loss of life, even though some reservoirs were filled beyond their design capacity. Coralville Reservoir on the Iowa River, for example, filled to 135% of its design flood storage capacity, with stage a record five feet over the crest of the spillway. In spite of this, the maximum reservoir release was limited to 39,500 cfs, while a peak inflow of 57,000 cfs was observed. CWMS, the Corps Water Management System, is used to help regulate Corps reservoirs, as well as track and evaluate flooding and flooding potential. CWMS is a comprehensive data acquisition and hydrologic modeling system for short-term decision support of water control operations in real time. It encompasses data collection, validation and transformation, data storage, visualization, real time model simulation for decision-making support, and data dissemination. The system uses precipitation and flow data, collected in real-time, along with forecasted flow from the National Weather Service to model and optimize reservoir operations and forecast downstream flows and stages, providing communities accurate and timely information to aid their flood-fighting. This involves integrating several simulation modeling programs, including HEC-HMS to forecast flows, HEC-ResSim to model reservoir operations and HEC-RAS to compute forecasted stage hydrographs. An inundation boundary and depth map of water in the flood plain can be calculated from the HEC-RAS results using ArcInfo. By varying future precipitation and releases, engineers can evaluate different "What if?" scenarios. The effectiveness of this tool and Corps reservoirs are examined.
Application of conditional simulation of heterogeneous rock properties to seismic scattering and attenuation analysis in gas hydrate reservoirs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Jun-Wei; Bellefleur, Gilles; Milkereit, Bernd

2012-02-01

We present a conditional simulation algorithm to parameterize three-dimensional heterogeneities and construct heterogeneous petrophysical reservoir models. The models match the data at borehole locations, simulate heterogeneities at the same resolution as borehole logging data elsewhere in the model space, and simultaneously honor the correlations among multiple rock properties. The model provides a heterogeneous environment in which a variety of geophysical experiments can be simulated. This includes the estimation of petrophysical properties and the study of geophysical response to the heterogeneities. As an example, we model the elastic properties of a gas hydrate accumulation located at Mallik, Northwest Territories, Canada. The modeled properties include compressional and shear-wave velocities that primarily depend on the saturation of hydrate in the pore space of the subsurface lithologies. We introduce the conditional heterogeneous petrophysical models into a finite difference modeling program to study seismic scattering and attenuation due to multi-scale heterogeneity. Similarities between resonance scattering analysis of synthetic and field Vertical Seismic Profile data reveal heterogeneity with a horizontal-scale of approximately 50 m in the shallow part of the gas hydrate interval. A cross-borehole numerical experiment demonstrates that apparent seismic energy loss can occur in a pure elastic medium without any intrinsic attenuation of hydrate-bearing sediments. This apparent attenuation is largely attributed to attenuative leaky mode propagation of seismic waves through large-scale gas hydrate occurrence as well as scattering from patchy distribution of gas hydrate.
A framework for human-hydrologic system model development integrating hydrology and water management: application to the Cutzamala water system in Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wi, S.; Freeman, S.; Brown, C.

2017-12-01

This study presents a general approach to developing computational models of human-hydrologic systems where human modification of hydrologic surface processes are significant or dominant. A river basin system is represented by a network of human-hydrologic response units (HHRUs) identified based on locations where river regulations happen (e.g., reservoir operation and diversions). Natural and human processes in HHRUs are simulated in a holistic framework that integrates component models representing rainfall-runoff, river routing, reservoir operation, flow diversion and water use processes. We illustrate the approach in a case study of the Cutzamala water system (CWS) in Mexico, a complex inter-basin water transfer system supplying the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA). The human-hydrologic system model for CWS (CUTZSIM) is evaluated in terms of streamflow and reservoir storages measured across the CWS and to water supplied for MCMA. The CUTZSIM improves the representation of hydrology and river-operation interaction and, in so doing, advances evaluation of system-wide water management consequences under altered climatic and demand regimes. The integrated modeling framework enables evaluation and simulation of model errors throughout the river basin, including errors in representation of the human component processes. Heretofore, model error evaluation, predictive error intervals and the resultant improved understanding have been limited to hydrologic processes. The general framework represents an initial step towards fuller understanding and prediction of the many and varied processes that determine the hydrologic fluxes and state variables in real river basins.
Cooperative Learning in Reservoir Simulation Classes: Overcoming Disparate Entry Skills

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Awang, Mariyamni

2006-01-01

Reservoir simulation is one of the core courses in the petroleum engineering curriculum and it requires knowledge and skills in three major disciplines, namely programming, numerical methods and reservoir engineering. However, there were often gaps in the students' readiness to undertake the course, even after completing the necessary…
Strain-dependent partial slip on rock fractures under seismic-frequency torsion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saltiel, Seth; Bonner, Brian P.; Ajo-Franklin, Jonathan B.

2017-05-01

Measurements of nonlinear modulus and attenuation of fractures provide the opportunity to probe their mechanical state. We have adapted a low-frequency torsional apparatus to explore the seismic signature of fractures under low normal stress, simulating low effective stress environments such as shallow or high pore pressure reservoirs. We report strain-dependent modulus and attenuation for fractured samples of Duperow dolomite (a carbon sequestration target reservoir in Montana), Blue Canyon Dome rhyolite (a geothermal analog reservoir in New Mexico), and Montello granite (a deep basement disposal analog from Wisconsin). We use a simple single effective asperity partial slip model to fit our measured stress-strain curves and solve for the friction coefficient, contact radius, and full slip condition. These observations have the potential to develop into new field techniques for measuring differences in frictional properties during reservoir engineering manipulations and estimate the stress conditions where reservoir fractures and faults begin to fully slip.
Numerical simulations of highly buoyant flows in the Castel Giorgio - Torre Alfina deep geothermal reservoir

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Volpi, Giorgio; Crosta, Giovanni B.; Colucci, Francesca; Fischer, Thomas; Magri, Fabien

2017-04-01

Geothermal heat is a viable source of energy and its environmental impact in terms of CO2 emissions is significantly lower than conventional fossil fuels. However, nowadays its utilization is inconsistent with the enormous amount of energy available underneath the surface of the earth. This is mainly due to the uncertainties associated with it, as for example the lack of appropriate computational tools, necessary to perform effective analyses. The aim of the present study is to build an accurate 3D numerical model, to simulate the exploitation process of the deep geothermal reservoir of Castel Giorgio - Torre Alfina (central Italy), and to compare results and performances of parallel simulations performed with TOUGH2 (Pruess et al. 1999), FEFLOW (Diersch 2014) and the open source software OpenGeoSys (Kolditz et al. 2012). Detailed geological, structural and hydrogeological data, available for the selected area since early 70s, show that Castel Giorgio - Torre Alfina is a potential geothermal reservoir with high thermal characteristics (120 ° C - 150 ° C) and fluids such as pressurized water and gas, mainly CO2, hosted in a carbonate formation. Our two steps simulations firstly recreate the undisturbed natural state of the considered system and then perform the predictive analysis of the industrial exploitation process. The three adopted software showed a strong numerical simulations accuracy, which has been verified by comparing the simulated and measured temperature and pressure values of the geothermal wells in the area. The results of our simulations have demonstrated the sustainability of the investigated geothermal field for the development of a 5 MW pilot plant with total fluids reinjection in the same original formation. From the thermal point of view, a very efficient buoyant circulation inside the geothermal system has been observed, thus allowing the reservoir to support the hypothesis of a 50 years production time with a flow rate of 1050 t/h. Furthermore, with the modeled distances our simulations showed no interference effects between the production and re-injection wells. Besides providing valuable guidelines for future exploitation of the Castel Giorgio - Torre Alfina deep geothermal reservoir, this example also highlights the large applicability and the high performance of the OpenGeoSys open-source code in handling coupled hydro-thermal simulations. REFERENCES Diersch, H. J. (2014). FEFLOW Finite Element Modeling of Flow, Mass and Heat Transport in Porous and Fractured Media, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, ISBN 978-3-642-38738-8. Kolditz, O., Bauer, S., Bilke, L., Böttcher, N., Delfs, J. O., Fischer, T., U. J. Görke, T. Kalbacher, G. Kosakowski, McDermott, C. I., Park, C. H., Radu, F., Rink, K., Shao, H., Shao, H.B., Sun, F., Sun, Y., Sun, A., Singh, K., Taron, J., Walther, M., Wang,W., Watanabe, N., Wu, Y., Xie, M., Xu, W., Zehner, B. (2012). OpenGeoSys: an open-source initiative for numerical simulation of thermo-hydro-mechanical/chemical (THM/C) processes in porous media. Environmental Earth Sciences, 67(2), 589-599. Pruess, K., Oldenburg, C. M., & Moridis, G. J. (1999). TOUGH2 user's guide version 2. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory.

Towards Optimal Operation of the Reservoir System in Upper Yellow River: Incorporating Long- and Short-term Operations and Using Rolling Updated Hydrologic Forecast Information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Si, Y.; Li, X.; Li, T.; Huang, Y.; Yin, D.

2016-12-01

The cascade reservoirs in Upper Yellow River (UYR), one of the largest hydropower bases in China, play a vital role in peak load and frequency regulation for Northwest China Power Grid. The joint operation of this system has been put forward for years whereas has not come into effect due to management difficulties and inflow uncertainties, and thus there is still considerable improvement room for hydropower production. This study presents a decision support framework incorporating long- and short-term operation of the reservoir system. For long-term operation, we maximize hydropower production of the reservoir system using historical hydrological data of multiple years, and derive operating rule curves for storage reservoirs. For short-term operation, we develop a program consisting of three modules, namely hydrologic forecast module, reservoir operation module and coordination module. The coordination module is responsible for calling the hydrologic forecast module to acquire predicted inflow within a short-term horizon, and transferring the information to the reservoir operation module to generate optimal release decision. With the hydrologic forecast information updated, the rolling short-term optimization is iterated until the end of operation period, where the long-term operating curves serve as the ending storage target. As an application, the Digital Yellow River Integrated Model (referred to as "DYRIM", which is specially designed for runoff-sediment simulation in the Yellow River basin by Tsinghua University) is used in the hydrologic forecast module, and the successive linear programming (SLP) in the reservoir operation module. The application in the reservoir system of UYR demonstrates that the framework can effectively support real-time decision making, and ensure both computational accuracy and speed. Furthermore, it is worth noting that the general framework can be extended to any other reservoir system with any or combination of hydrological model(s) to forecast and any solver to optimize the operation of reservoir system.
Reservoir Models for Gas Hydrate Numerical Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boswell, R.

2016-12-01

Scientific and industrial drilling programs have now providing detailed information on gas hydrate systems that will increasingly be the subject of field experiments. The need to carefully plan these programs requires reliable prediction of reservoir response to hydrate dissociation. Currently, a major emphasis in gas hydrate modeling is the integration of thermodynamic/hydrologic phenomena with geomechanical response for both reservoir and bounding strata. However, also critical to the ultimate success of these efforts is the appropriate development of input geologic models, including several emerging issues, including (1) reservoir heterogeneity, (2) understanding of the initial petrophysical characteristics of the system (reservoirs and seals), the dynamic evolution of those characteristics during active dissociation, and the interdependency of petrophysical parameters and (3) the nature of reservoir boundaries. Heterogeneity is ubiquitous aspect of every natural reservoir, and appropriate characterization is vital. However, heterogeneity is not random. Vertical variation can be evaluated with core and well log data; however, core data often are challenged by incomplete recovery. Well logs also provide interpretation challenges, particularly where reservoirs are thinly-bedded due to limitation in vertical resolution. This imprecision will extend to any petrophysical measurements that are derived from evaluation of log data. Extrapolation of log data laterally is also complex, and should be supported by geologic mapping. Key petrophysical parameters include porosity, permeability and it many aspects, and water saturation. Field data collected to date suggest that the degree of hydrate saturation is strongly controlled by/dependant upon reservoir quality and that the ratio of free to bound water in the remaining pore space is likely also controlled by reservoir quality. Further, those parameters will also evolve during dissociation, and not necessary in a simple/linear way. Significant progress has also occurred in recent years with regard to the geologic characterization of reservoir boundaries. Vertical boundaries with overlying clay-rich "seals" are now widely-appreciated to have non-zero permeability, and lateral boundaries are sources of potential lateral fluid flow.
Compositional Reservoir Simulation of Highly Heterogeneous and Anisotropic Fractured Media in 2D and 3D Unstructured Gridding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zidane, A.; Firoozabadi, A.

2017-12-01

We present an efficient and accurate numerical model for multicomponent compressible single-phase flow in 2D and 3D fractured media based on higher-order discretization. The numerical model accounts for heterogeneity and anisotropy in unstructured gridding with low mesh dependency. The efficiency of our model is demonstrated by having comparable CPU time between fractured and unfractured media. The fracture cross-flow equilibrium approach (FCFE) is applied on triangular finite elements (FE) in 2D. This allows simulating fractured reservoirs with all possible orientations of fractures as opposed to rectangular FE. In 3D we apply the FCFE approach on the prism FE. The prism FE with FCFE allows simulating realistic fractured domains compared to hexahedron FE. In addition, when using FCFE on triangular and prism FE there is no limitation on the number of intersecting fractures, whereas in rectangular and hexahedron FE the number is limited to 2 in 2D and 3 in 3D. To generate domains with complicated boundaries, we have developed a computer-aided design (CAD) interface in our model. The advances introduced in this work are demonstrated through various examples.
Digital Rock Simulation of Flow in Carbonate Samples

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klemin, D.; Andersen, M.

2014-12-01

Reservoir engineering has becomes more complex to deal with current challenges, so core analysts must understand and model pore geometries and fluid behaviors at pores scales more rapidly and realistically. We introduce an industry-unique direct hydrodynamic pore flow simulator that operates on pore geometries from digital rock models obtained using microCT or 3D scanning electron microscope (SEM) images. The PVT and rheological models used in the simulator represent real reservoir fluids. Fluid-solid interactions are introduced using distributed micro-scale wetting properties. The simulator uses density functional approach applied for hydrodynamics of complex systems. This talk covers selected applications of the simulator. We performed microCT scanning of six different carbonate rock samples from homogeneous limestones to vuggy carbonates. From these, we constructed digital rock models representing pore geometries for the simulator. We simulated nonreactive tracer flow in all six digital models using a digital fluid description that included a passive tracer solution. During the simulation, we evaluated the composition of the effluent. Results of tracer flow simulations corresponded well with experimental data of nonreactive tracer floods for the same carbonate rock types. This simulation data of the non-reactive tracer flow can be used to calculate the volume of the rock accessible by the fluid, which can be further used to predict response of a porous medium to a reactive fluid. The described digital core analysis workflow provides a basis for a wide variety of activities, including input to design acidizing jobs and evaluating treatment efficiency and EOR economics. Digital rock multiphase flow simulations of a scanned carbonate rock evaluated the effect of wettability on flow properties. Various wetting properties were tested: slightly oil wet, slightly water wet, and water wet. Steady-state relative permeability simulations yielded curves for all three ranges of wetting properties. The wetting variation affected phase mobility and residual phase saturations for primary oil flood and floods with varying ratios of oil and water.
Modeling Multi-Reservoir Hydropower Systems in the Sierra Nevada with Environmental Requirements and Climate Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rheinheimer, David Emmanuel

Hydropower systems and other river regulation often harm instream ecosystems, partly by altering the natural flow and temperature regimes that ecosystems have historically depended on. These effects are compounded at regional scales. As hydropower and ecosystems are increasingly valued globally due to growing values for clean energy and native species as well as and new threats from climate warming, it is important to understand how climate warming might affect these systems, to identify tradeoffs between different water uses for different climate conditions, and to identify promising water management solutions. This research uses traditional simulation and optimization to explore these issues in California's upper west slope Sierra Nevada mountains. The Sierra Nevada provides most of the water for California's vast water supply system, supporting high-elevation hydropower generation, ecosystems, recreation, and some local municipal and agricultural water supply along the way. However, regional climate warming is expected to reduce snowmelt and shift runoff to earlier in the year, affecting all water uses. This dissertation begins by reviewing important literature related to the broader motivations of this study, including river regulation, freshwater conservation, and climate change. It then describes three substantial studies. First, a weekly time step water resources management model spanning the Feather River watershed in the north to the Kern River watershed in the south is developed. The model, which uses the Water Evaluation And Planning System (WEAP), includes reservoirs, run-of-river hydropower, variable head hydropower, water supply demand, and instream flow requirements. The model is applied with a runoff dataset that considers regional air temperature increases of 0, 2, 4 and 6 °C to represent historical, near-term, mid-term and far-term (end-of-century) warming. Most major hydropower turbine flows are simulated well. Reservoir storage is also generally well simulated, mostly limited by the accuracy of inflow hydrology. System-wide hydropower generation is reduced by 9% with 6 °C warming. Most reductions in hydropower generation occur in the highly productive watersheds in the northern Sierra Nevada. The central Sierra Nevada sees less reduction in annual runoff and can adapt better to changes in runoff timing. Generation in southern watersheds is expected to decrease. System-wide, reservoirs adapt to capture earlier runoff, but mostly decrease in mean reservoir storage with warming due to decreasing annual runoff. Second, a multi-reservoir optimization model is developed using linear programming that considers the minimum instream flows (MIFs) and weekly down ramp rates (DRRs) in the Upper Yuba River in the northern Sierra Nevada. Weekly DRR constraints are used to mimic spring snowmelt flows, which are particularly important for downstream ecosystems in the Sierra Nevada but are currently missing due to the influence of dams. Trade-offs between MIFs, DRRs and hydropower are explored with air temperature warming (+0, 2, 4 and 6 °C). Under base case operations, mean annual hydropower generation increases slightly with 2 °C warming and decreases slightly with 6 °C warming. With 6 °C warming, the most ecologically beneficial MIF and DRR reduce hydropower generation 5.5% compared to base case operations and a historical climate, which has important implications for re-licensing the hydropower project. Finally, reservoir management for downstream temperatures is explored using a linear programming model to optimally release water from a reservoir using selective withdrawal. The objective function is to minimize deviations from desired downstream temperatures, which are specified to mimic the natural temperature regime in the river. One objective of this study was to develop a method that can be readily integrated into a basin-scale multi-reservoir optimization model using a network representation of system features. The second objective was to explore the potential use of reservoirs to maintain an ideal stream temperature regime to ameliorate the temperature effects of climate warming of air temperature. For proof-of-concept, the model is applied to Lake Spaulding in the Upper Yuba River. With selective withdrawal, the model hedges the release of cold water to decrease summer stream temperatures, but at a cost of warmer stream temperatures in the winter. Results also show that selective withdrawal can reduce, but not eliminate, the temperature effects of climate warming. The model can be extended to include other nearby reservoirs to optimally manage releases from multiple reservoirs for multiple downstream temperature targets in a highly interconnected system. While the outcomes of these studies contribute to our understanding of reservoir management and hydropower at the intersection of energy, water management, ecosystems, and climate warming, there are many opportunities to improve this work. Promising options for improving and building on the collective utility of these studies are presented.
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

White, Mark D.; McPherson, Brian J.; Grigg, Reid B.

Numerical simulation is an invaluable analytical tool for scientists and engineers in making predictions about of the fate of carbon dioxide injected into deep geologic formations for long-term storage. Current numerical simulators for assessing storage in deep saline formations have capabilities for modeling strongly coupled processes involving multifluid flow, heat transfer, chemistry, and rock mechanics in geologic media. Except for moderate pressure conditions, numerical simulators for deep saline formations only require the tracking of two immiscible phases and a limited number of phase components, beyond those comprising the geochemical reactive system. The requirements for numerically simulating the utilization and storagemore » of carbon dioxide in partially depleted petroleum reservoirs are more numerous than those for deep saline formations. The minimum number of immiscible phases increases to three, the number of phase components may easily increase fourfold, and the coupled processes of heat transfer, geochemistry, and geomechanics remain. Public and scientific confidence in the ability of numerical simulators used for carbon dioxide sequestration in deep saline formations has advanced via a natural progression of the simulators being proven against benchmark problems, code comparisons, laboratory-scale experiments, pilot-scale injections, and commercial-scale injections. This paper describes a new numerical simulator for the scientific investigation of carbon dioxide utilization and storage in partially depleted petroleum reservoirs, with an emphasis on its unique features for scientific investigations; and documents the numerical simulation of the utilization of carbon dioxide for enhanced oil recovery in the western section of the Farnsworth Unit and represents an early stage in the progression of numerical simulators for carbon utilization and storage in depleted oil reservoirs.« less
Radioactive Sediment Transport on Ogaki Dam Reservoir in Fukushima Evacuated Zone: Numerical Simulation Studies by 2-D River Simulation Code

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamada, Susumu; Kitamura, Akihiro; Kurikami, Hiroshi; Machida, Masahiko

2015-04-01

Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP) accident on March 2011 released significant quantities of radionuclides to atmosphere. The most significant nuclide is radioactive cesium isotopes. Therefore, the movement of the cesium is one of the critical issues for the environmental assessment. Since the cesium is strongly sorbed by soil particles, the cesium transport can be regarded as the sediment transport which is mainly brought about by the aquatic system such as a river and a lake. In this research, our target is the sediment transport on Ogaki dam reservoir which is located in about 16 km northwest from FDNPP. The reservoir is one of the principal irrigation dam reservoirs in Fukushima Prefecture and its upstream river basin was heavily contaminated by radioactivity. We simulate the sediment transport on the reservoir using 2-D river simulation code named Nays2D originally developed by Shimizu et al. (The latest version of Nays2D is available as a code included in iRIC (http://i-ric.org/en/), which is a river flow and riverbed variation analysis software package). In general, a 2-D simulation code requires a huge amount of calculation time. Therefore, we parallelize the code and execute it on a parallel computer. We examine the relationship between the behavior of the sediment transport and the height of the reservoir exit. The simulation result shows that almost all the sand that enter into the reservoir deposit close to the entrance of the reservoir for any height of the exit. The amounts of silt depositing within the reservoir slightly increase by raising the height of the exit. However, that of the clay dramatically increases. Especially, more than half of the clay deposits, if the exit is sufficiently high. These results demonstrate that the water level of the reservoir has a strong influence on the amount of the clay discharged from the reservoir. As a result, we conclude that the tuning of the water level has a possibility for controlling the recontamination to the downstream.
Fracture Propagation, Fluid Flow, and Geomechanics of Water-Based Hydraulic Fracturing in Shale Gas Systems and Electromagnetic Geophysical Monitoring of Fluid Migration

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kim, Jihoon; Um, Evan; Moridis, George

2014-12-01

We investigate fracture propagation induced by hydraulic fracturing with water injection, using numerical simulation. For rigorous, full 3D modeling, we employ a numerical method that can model failure resulting from tensile and shear stresses, dynamic nonlinear permeability, leak-off in all directions, and thermo-poro-mechanical effects with the double porosity approach. Our numerical results indicate that fracture propagation is not the same as propagation of the water front, because fracturing is governed by geomechanics, whereas water saturation is determined by fluid flow. At early times, the water saturation front is almost identical to the fracture tip, suggesting that the fracture is mostlymore » filled with injected water. However, at late times, advance of the water front is retarded compared to fracture propagation, yielding a significant gap between the water front and the fracture top, which is filled with reservoir gas. We also find considerable leak-off of water to the reservoir. The inconsistency between the fracture volume and the volume of injected water cannot properly calculate the fracture length, when it is estimated based on the simple assumption that the fracture is fully saturated with injected water. As an example of flow-geomechanical responses, we identify pressure fluctuation under constant water injection, because hydraulic fracturing is itself a set of many failure processes, in which pressure consistently drops when failure occurs, but fluctuation decreases as the fracture length grows. We also study application of electromagnetic (EM) geophysical methods, because these methods are highly sensitive to changes in porosity and pore-fluid properties due to water injection into gas reservoirs. Employing a 3D finite-element EM geophysical simulator, we evaluate the sensitivity of the crosswell EM method for monitoring fluid movements in shaly reservoirs. For this sensitivity evaluation, reservoir models are generated through the coupled flow-geomechanical simulator and are transformed via a rock-physics model into electrical conductivity models. It is shown that anomalous conductivity distribution in the resulting models is closely related to injected water saturation, but not closely related to newly created unsaturated fractures. Our numerical modeling experiments demonstrate that the crosswell EM method can be highly sensitive to conductivity changes that directly indicate the migration pathways of the injected fluid. Accordingly, the EM method can serve as an effective monitoring tool for distribution of injected fluids (i.e., migration pathways) during hydraulic fracturing operations« less
Coupling ecological and social network models to assess "transmission" and "contagion" of an aquatic invasive species.

PubMed

Haak, Danielle M; Fath, Brian D; Forbes, Valery E; Martin, Dustin R; Pope, Kevin L

2017-04-01

Network analysis is used to address diverse ecological, social, economic, and epidemiological questions, but few efforts have been made to combine these field-specific analyses into interdisciplinary approaches that effectively address how complex systems are interdependent and connected to one another. Identifying and understanding these cross-boundary connections improves natural resource management and promotes proactive, rather than reactive, decisions. This research had two main objectives; first, adapt the framework and approach of infectious disease network modeling so that it may be applied to the socio-ecological problem of spreading aquatic invasive species, and second, use this new coupled model to simulate the spread of the invasive Chinese mystery snail (Bellamya chinensis) in a reservoir network in Southeastern Nebraska, USA. The coupled model integrates an existing social network model of how anglers move on the landscape with new reservoir-specific ecological network models. This approach allowed us to identify 1) how angler movement among reservoirs aids in the spread of B. chinensis, 2) how B. chinensis alters energy flows within individual-reservoir food webs, and 3) a new method for assessing the spread of any number of non-native or invasive species within complex, social-ecological systems. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Coupling ecological and social network models to assess “transmission” and “contagion” of an aquatic invasive species

USGS Publications Warehouse

Haak, Danielle M.; Fath, Brian D.; Forbes, Valery E.; Martin, Dustin R.; Pope, Kevin L.

2017-01-01

Network analysis is used to address diverse ecological, social, economic, and epidemiological questions, but few efforts have been made to combine these field-specific analyses into interdisciplinary approaches that effectively address how complex systems are interdependent and connected to one another. Identifying and understanding these cross-boundary connections improves natural resource management and promotes proactive, rather than reactive, decisions. This research had two main objectives; first, adapt the framework and approach of infectious disease network modeling so that it may be applied to the socio-ecological problem of spreading aquatic invasive species, and second, use this new coupled model to simulate the spread of the invasive Chinese mystery snail (Bellamya chinensis) in a reservoir network in Southeastern Nebraska, USA. The coupled model integrates an existing social network model of how anglers move on the landscape with new reservoir-specific ecological network models. This approach allowed us to identify 1) how angler movement among reservoirs aids in the spread of B. chinensis, 2) how B. chinensisalters energy flows within individual-reservoir food webs, and 3) a new method for assessing the spread of any number of non-native or invasive species within complex, social-ecological systems.
Two Novel Applications of an Integrated Model for the Assessment of Global Water Resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hanasaki, N.; Kanae, S.; Oki, T.

2009-12-01

To assess global water availability and use at a subannual timescale, an integrated global water resources model was developed consisting of six modules: land surface hydrology, river routing, crop growth, reservoir operation, environmental flow requirement estimation, and anthropogenic water withdrawal. The model, called H08, simulates both natural and anthropogenic water flow globally (excluding Antarctica) on a daily basis at a spatial resolution of 1.0°×1.0°or 0.5°×0.5° (longitude and latitude). Here, we present two novel applications of H08. First, a global hydrological simulation was conducted for 10 years from 1986 to 1995 at a spatial resolution of 1.0°×1.0°, and global water resources were assessed on a subannual basis using a newly devised index. This index located water-stressed regions that were undetected in earlier studies using conventional annual basis indices. These regions, which are indicated by a gap in the subannual distribution of water availability and water use, include the Sahel, the Asian monsoon region, and southern Africa. The simulation results show that the reservoir operations of major reservoirs (>1 km3) and the allocation of environmental flow requirements can alter the population under high water stress by approximately -11% to +5% globally. Second, global flows of virtual water (i.e. the volume of water consumption required to produce commodities imported to an exporting nation) were estimated. The H08 model enabled us to simulate the virtual water content of major crops consistent with their global hydrological simulation. Moreover, we were able to assess two major sources of virtual water flow or content simultaneously: green water (evapotranspiration originated from precipitation) and blue water (evapotranspiration originated from irrigation). Blue water was further subdivided into three subcategories (i.e., streamflow, medium-size reservoirs, and nonrenewable and nonlocal blue water). Using global trade data for 2000 and the simulated virtual water content of major crops, the virtual water flow was estimated globally. Our results indicated that the global virtual water export (i.e., the volume of water that an exporting nation consumes to produce the commodities that it trades abroad) of five crops (barley, maize, rice, soybean, and wheat) and three livestock products (beef, pork, and chicken) is 545 km3yr-1. Of the total virtual water exports, 61 km3 yr-1 (11%) are blue water (i.e., irrigation water) and 26 km3 yr-1 (5%) are nonrenewable and nonlocal blue water.
History matching through dynamic decision-making

PubMed Central

Maschio, Célio; Santos, Antonio Alberto; Schiozer, Denis; Rocha, Anderson

2017-01-01

History matching is the process of modifying the uncertain attributes of a reservoir model to reproduce the real reservoir performance. It is a classical reservoir engineering problem and plays an important role in reservoir management since the resulting models are used to support decisions in other tasks such as economic analysis and production strategy. This work introduces a dynamic decision-making optimization framework for history matching problems in which new models are generated based on, and guided by, the dynamic analysis of the data of available solutions. The optimization framework follows a ‘learning-from-data’ approach, and includes two optimizer components that use machine learning techniques, such as unsupervised learning and statistical analysis, to uncover patterns of input attributes that lead to good output responses. These patterns are used to support the decision-making process while generating new, and better, history matched solutions. The proposed framework is applied to a benchmark model (UNISIM-I-H) based on the Namorado field in Brazil. Results show the potential the dynamic decision-making optimization framework has for improving the quality of history matching solutions using a substantial smaller number of simulations when compared with a previous work on the same benchmark. PMID:28582413
Geophysical Investigations at Hidden Dam, Raymond, California Flow Simulations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Minsley, Burke J.; Ikard, Scott

2010-01-01

Numerical flow modeling and analysis of observation-well data at Hidden Dam are carried out to supplement recent geophysical field investigations at the site (Minsley and others, 2010). This work also is complementary to earlier seepage-related studies at Hidden Dam documented by Cedergren (1980a, b). Known seepage areas on the northwest right abutment area of the downstream side of the dam was documented by Cedergren (1980a, b). Subsequent to the 1980 seepage study, a drainage blanket with a sub-drain system was installed to mitigate downstream seepage. Flow net analysis provided by Cedergren (1980a, b) suggests that the primary seepage mechanism involves flow through the dam foundation due to normal reservoir pool elevations, which results in upflow that intersects the ground surface in several areas on the downstream side of the dam. In addition to the reservoir pool elevations and downstream surface topography, flow is also controlled by the existing foundation geology as well as the presence or absence of a horizontal drain in the downstream portion of the dam. The current modeling study is aimed at quantifying how variability in dam and foundation hydrologic properties influences seepage as a function of reservoir stage. Flow modeling is implemented using the COMSOL Multiphysics software package, which solves the partially saturated flow equations in a two-dimensional (2D) cross-section of Hidden Dam that also incorporates true downstream topography. Use of the COMSOL software package provides a more quantitative approach than the flow net analysis by Cedergren (1980a, b), and allows for rapid evaluation of the influence of various parameters such as reservoir level, dam structure and geometry, and hydrogeologic properties of the dam and foundation materials. Historical observation-well data are used to help validate the flow simulations by comparing observed and predicted water levels for a range of reservoir elevations. The flow models are guided by, and discussed in the context of, the geophysical work (Minsley and others, 2010) where appropriate.
Model design for predicting extreme precipitation event impacts on water quality in a water supply reservoir

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hagemann, M.; Jeznach, L. C.; Park, M. H.; Tobiason, J. E.

2016-12-01

Extreme precipitation events such as tropical storms and hurricanes are by their nature rare, yet have disproportionate and adverse effects on surface water quality. In the context of drinking water reservoirs, common concerns of such events include increased erosion and sediment transport and influx of natural organic matter and nutrients. As part of an effort to model the effects of an extreme precipitation event on water quality at the reservoir intake of a major municipal water system, this study sought to estimate extreme-event watershed responses including streamflow and exports of nutrients and organic matter for use as inputs to a 2-D hydrodynamic and water quality reservoir model. Since extreme-event watershed exports are highly uncertain, we characterized and propagated predictive uncertainty using a quasi-Monte Carlo approach to generate reservoir model inputs. Three storm precipitation depths—corresponding to recurrence intervals of 5, 50, and 100 years—were converted to streamflow in each of 9 tributaries by volumetrically scaling 2 storm hydrographs from the historical record. Rating-curve models for concentratoin, calibrated using 10 years of data for each of 5 constituents, were then used to estimate the parameters of a multivariate lognormal probability model of constituent concentrations, conditional on each scenario's storm date and streamflow. A quasi-random Halton sequence (n = 100) was drawn from the conditional distribution for each event scenario, and used to generate input files to a calibrated CE-QUAL-W2 reservoir model. The resulting simulated concentrations at the reservoir's drinking water intake constitute a low-discrepancy sample from the estimated uncertainty space of extreme-event source water-quality. Limiting factors to the suitability of this approach include poorly constrained relationships between hydrology and constituent concentrations, a high-dimensional space from which to generate inputs, and relatively long run-time for the reservoir model. This approach proved useful in probing a water supply's resilience to extreme events, and to inform management responses, particularly in a region such as the American Northeast where climate change is expected to bring such events with higher frequency and intensity than have occurred in the past.
Simulation of geothermal water extraction in heterogeneous reservoirs using dynamic unstructured mesh optimisation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salinas, P.; Pavlidis, D.; Jacquemyn, C.; Lei, Q.; Xie, Z.; Pain, C.; Jackson, M.

2017-12-01

It is well known that the pressure gradient into a production well increases with decreasing distance to the well. To properly capture the local pressure drawdown into the well a high grid or mesh resolution is required; moreover, the location of the well must be captured accurately. In conventional simulation models, the user must interact with the model to modify grid resolution around wells of interest, and the well location is approximated on a grid defined early in the modelling process.We report a new approach for improved simulation of near wellbore flow in reservoir scale models through the use of dynamic mesh optimisation and the recently presented double control volume finite element method. Time is discretized using an adaptive, implicit approach. Heterogeneous geologic features are represented as volumes bounded by surfaces. Within these volumes, termed geologic domains, the material properties are constant. Up-, cross- or down-scaling of material properties during dynamic mesh optimization is not required, as the properties are uniform within each geologic domain. A given model typically contains numerous such geologic domains. Wells are implicitly coupled with the domain, and the fluid flows is modelled inside the wells. The method is novel for two reasons. First, a fully unstructured tetrahedral mesh is used to discretize space, and the spatial location of the well is specified via a line vector, ensuring its location even if the mesh is modified during the simulation. The well location is therefore accurately captured, the approach allows complex well trajectories and wells with many laterals to be modelled. Second, computational efficiency is increased by use of dynamic mesh optimization, in which an unstructured mesh adapts in space and time to key solution fields (preserving the geometry of the geologic domains), such as pressure, velocity or temperature, this also increases the quality of the solutions by placing higher resolution where required to reduce an error metric based on the Hessian of the field. This allows the local pressure drawdown to be captured without user¬ driven modification of the mesh. We demonstrate that the method has wide application in reservoir ¬scale models of geothermal fields, and regional models of groundwater resources.
Simulation of streamflow temperatures in the Yakima River basin, Washington, April-October 1981

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vaccaro, J.J.

1986-01-01

The effects of storage, diversion, return flow, and meteorological variables on water temperature in the Yakima River, in Washington State, were simulated, and the changes in water temperature that could be expected under four alternative-management scenarios were examined for improvement in anadromous fish environment. A streamflow routing model and Lagrangian streamflow temperature model were used to simulate water discharge and temperature in the river. The estimated model errors were 12% for daily discharge and 1.7 C for daily temperature. Sensitivity analysis of the simulation of water temperatures showed that the effect of reservoir outflow temperatures diminishes in a downstream direction. A 4 C increase in outflow temperatures results in a 1.0 C increase in mean irrigation season water temperature at Umtanum in the upper Yakima River basin, but only a 0.01C increase at Prosser in the lower basin. The influence of air temperature on water temperature increases in a downstream direction and is the dominant influence in the lower basin. A 4 C increase in air temperature over the entire basin resulted in a 2.34 C increase in river temperatures at Prosser in the lower basin and 1.46 C at Umtanum in the upper basin. Changes in wind speed and model wind-function parameters had little effect on the model predicted water temperature. Of four alternative management scenarios suggested by the U.S. Bureau of Indian Affairs and the Yakima Indian Nation, the 1981 reservoir releases maintained without diversions or return flow in the river basin produced water temperatures nearest those considered as preferable for salmon and steelhead trout habitat. The alternative management scenario for no reservoir storage and no diversions or return flows in the river basin (estimate of natural conditions) produced conditions that were the least like those considered as preferable for salmon and steelhead trout habitat. (Author 's abstract)
On the importance of the heterogeneity assumption in the characterization of reservoir geomechanical properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zoccarato, C.; Baù, D.; Bottazzi, F.; Ferronato, M.; Gambolati, G.; Mantica, S.; Teatini, P.

2016-10-01

The geomechanical analysis of a highly compartmentalized reservoir is performed to simulate the seafloor subsidence due to gas production. The available observations over the hydrocarbon reservoir consist of bathymetric surveys carried out before and at the end of a 10-yr production life. The main goal is the calibration of the reservoir compressibility cM, that is, the main geomechanical parameter controlling the surface response. Two conceptual models are considered: in one (i) cM varies only with the depth and the vertical effective stress (heterogeneity due to lithostratigraphic variability); in another (ii) cM varies also in the horizontal plane, that is, it is spatially distributed within the reservoir stratigraphic units. The latter hypothesis accounts for a possible partitioning of the reservoir due to the presence of sealing faults and thrusts that suggests the idea of a block heterogeneous system with the number of reservoir blocks equal to the number of uncertain parameters. The method applied here relies on an ensemble-based data assimilation (DA) algorithm (i.e. the ensemble smoother, ES), which incorporates the information from the bathymetric measurements into the geomechanical model response to infer and reduce the uncertainty of the parameter cM. The outcome from conceptual model (i) indicates that DA is effective in reducing the cM uncertainty. However, the maximum settlement still remains underestimated, while the areal extent of the subsidence bowl is overestimated. We demonstrate that the selection of the heterogeneous conceptual model (ii) allows to reproduce much better the observations thus removing a clear bias of the model structure. DA allows significantly reducing the cM uncertainty in the five blocks (out of the seven) characterized by large volume and large pressure decline. Conversely, the assimilation of land displacements only partially constrains the prior cM uncertainty in the reservoir blocks marginally contributing to the cumulative seafloor subsidence, that is, blocks with low pressure.
Modeling the Hydrological Regime of Turkana Lake (Kenya, Ethiopia) by Combining Spatially Distributed Hydrological Modeling and Remote Sensing Datasets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anghileri, D.; Kaelin, A.; Peleg, N.; Fatichi, S.; Molnar, P.; Roques, C.; Longuevergne, L.; Burlando, P.

2017-12-01

Hydrological modeling in poorly gauged basins can benefit from the use of remote sensing datasets although there are challenges associated with the mismatch in spatial and temporal scales between catchment scale hydrological models and remote sensing products. We model the hydrological processes and long-term water budget of the Lake Turkana catchment, a transboundary basin between Kenya and Ethiopia, by integrating several remote sensing products into a spatially distributed and physically explicit model, Topkapi-ETH. Lake Turkana is the world largest desert lake draining a catchment of 145'500 km2. It has three main contributing rivers: the Omo river, which contributes most of the annual lake inflow, the Turkwel river, and the Kerio rivers, which contribute the remaining part. The lake levels have shown great variations in the last decades due to long-term climate fluctuations and the regulation of three reservoirs, Gibe I, II, and III, which significantly alter the hydrological seasonality. Another large reservoir is planned and may be built in the next decade, generating concerns about the fate of Lake Turkana in the long run because of this additional anthropogenic pressure and increasing evaporation driven by climate change. We consider different remote sensing datasets, i.e., TRMM-V7 for precipitation, MERRA-2 for temperature, as inputs to the spatially distributed hydrological model. We validate the simulation results with other remote sensing datasets, i.e., GRACE for total water storage anomalies, GLDAS-NOAH for soil moisture, ERA-Interim/Land for surface runoff, and TOPEX/Poseidon for satellite altimetry data. Results highlight how different remote sensing products can be integrated into a hydrological modeling framework accounting for their relative uncertainties. We also carried out simulations with the artificial reservoirs planned in the north part of the catchment and without any reservoirs, to assess their impacts on the catchment hydrological regime and the Lake Turkana level variability.
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gragg, Evan James; Middleton, Richard Stephen

This report describes the benefits of the BECCUS screening tools. The goals of this project are to utilize NATCARB database for site screening; enhance NATCARB database; run CO 2-EOR simulations and economic models using updated reservoir data sets (SCO 2T-EOR).
Implications of Climate Change on the Heat Budget of Lentic Systems Used for Power Station Cooling: Case Study Clinton Lake, Illinois.

PubMed

Quijano, Juan C; Jackson, P Ryan; Santacruz, Santiago; Morales, Viviana M; García, Marcelo H

2016-01-05

We use a numerical model to analyze the impact of climate change-in particular higher air temperatures-on a nuclear power station that recirculates the water from a reservoir for cooling. The model solves the hydrodynamics, the transfer of heat in the reservoir, and the energy balance at the surface. We use the numerical model to (i) quantify the heat budget in the reservoir and determine how this budget is affected by the combined effect of the power station and climate change and (ii) quantify the impact of climate change on both the downstream thermal pollution and the power station capacity. We consider four different scenarios of climate change. Results of simulations show that climate change will reduce the ability to dissipate heat to the atmosphere and therefore the cooling capacity of the reservoir. We observed an increase of 25% in the thermal load downstream of the reservoir, and a reduction in the capacity of the power station of 18% during the summer months for the worst-case climate change scenario tested. These results suggest that climate change is an important threat for both the downstream thermal pollution and the generation of electricity by power stations that use lentic systems for cooling.

Implications of climate change on the heat budget of lentic systems used for power station cooling: Case study Clinton Lake, Illinois

USGS Publications Warehouse

Quijano, Juan C; Jackson, P. Ryan; Santacruz, Santiago; Morales, Viviana M; Garcia, Marcelo H.

2016-01-01

We use a numerical model to analyze the impact of climate change--in particular higher air temperatures--on a nuclear power station that recirculates the water from a reservoir for cooling. The model solves the hydrodynamics, the transfer of heat in the reservoir, and the energy balance at the surface. We use the numerical model to (i) quantify the heat budget in the reservoir and determine how this budget is affected by the combined effect of the power station and climate change and (ii) quantify the impact of climate change on both the downstream thermal pollution and the power station capacity. We consider four different scenarios of climate change. Results of simulations show that climate change will reduce the ability to dissipate heat to the atmosphere and therefore the cooling capacity of the reservoir. We observed an increase of 25% in the thermal load downstream of the reservoir, and a reduction in the capacity of the power station of 18% during the summer months for the worst-case climate change scenario tested. These results suggest that climate change is an important threat for both the downstream thermal pollution and the generation of electricity by power stations that use lentic systems for cooling.
Zoonotic Transmission of Waterborne Disease: A Mathematical Model.

PubMed

Waters, Edward K; Hamilton, Andrew J; Sidhu, Harvinder S; Sidhu, Leesa A; Dunbar, Michelle

2016-01-01

Waterborne parasites that infect both humans and animals are common causes of diarrhoeal illness, but the relative importance of transmission between humans and animals and vice versa remains poorly understood. Transmission of infection from animals to humans via environmental reservoirs, such as water sources, has attracted attention as a potential source of endemic and epidemic infections, but existing mathematical models of waterborne disease transmission have limitations for studying this phenomenon, as they only consider contamination of environmental reservoirs by humans. This paper develops a mathematical model that represents the transmission of waterborne parasites within and between both animal and human populations. It also improves upon existing models by including animal contamination of water sources explicitly. Linear stability analysis and simulation results, using realistic parameter values to describe Giardia transmission in rural Australia, show that endemic infection of an animal host with zoonotic protozoa can result in endemic infection in human hosts, even in the absence of person-to-person transmission. These results imply that zoonotic transmission via environmental reservoirs is important.
Geostatistical three-dimensional modeling of oolite shoals, St. Louis Limestone, southwest Kansas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Qi, L.; Carr, T.R.; Goldstein, R.H.

2007-01-01

In the Hugoton embayment of southwestern Kansas, reservoirs composed of relatively thin (<4 m; <13.1 ft) oolitic deposits within the St. Louis Limestone have produced more than 300 million bbl of oil. The geometry and distribution of oolitic deposits control the heterogeneity of the reservoirs, resulting in exploration challenges and relatively low recovery. Geostatistical three-dimensional (3-D) models were constructed to quantify the geometry and spatial distribution of oolitic reservoirs, and the continuity of flow units within Big Bow and Sand Arroyo Creek fields. Lithofacies in uncored wells were predicted from digital logs using a neural network. The tilting effect from the Laramide orogeny was removed to construct restored structural surfaces at the time of deposition. Well data and structural maps were integrated to build 3-D models of oolitic reservoirs using stochastic simulations with geometry data. Three-dimensional models provide insights into the distribution, the external and internal geometry of oolitic deposits, and the sedimentologic processes that generated reservoir intervals. The structural highs and general structural trend had a significant impact on the distribution and orientation of the oolitic complexes. The depositional pattern and connectivity analysis suggest an overall aggradation of shallow-marine deposits during pulses of relative sea level rise followed by deepening near the top of the St. Louis Limestone. Cemented oolitic deposits were modeled as barriers and baffles and tend to concentrate at the edge of oolitic complexes. Spatial distribution of porous oolitic deposits controls the internal geometry of rock properties. Integrated geostatistical modeling methods can be applicable to other complex carbonate or siliciclastic reservoirs in shallow-marine settings. Copyright ?? 2007. The American Association of Petroleum Geologists. All rights reserved.
Integration of outcrop and subsurface fracture data for reservoir modeling of the Natih field, north Oman

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mercadier, C.G.L.; Milatz, H.U.C.

1991-03-01

The Natih field reservoir comprises several distinct fractured limestone intervals which contain some 500 {times} 10{sup 6} m{sup 3} STOIIP. The field is being developed by gas-oil gravity drainage. Fracture orientations, dimensions, and spacings are critical to predict the effectiveness of this process. Statistically representative fracture data from Cretaceous Natih outcrop analogs in North Oman, core data, and electrical borehole imagery provided a realistic input for Natih field reservoir modeling and simulation. In the outcrops the fractures trend both cross-axially and longitudinally with dimensions and spacings varying with lithology, bed thickness, and curvature. Dimensions of matrix blocks in clean thicklymore » bedded limestones are an order of magnitude greater than in more argillaceous thinly bedded limestones. Subsurface data from the Natih reservoirs indicate that open cross-axial subvertical northeast-southwest-trending fractures dominate and strongly influence the reservoir flow pattern, but longitudinal fractures could not be identified. This is in line with the orientation of the present day, principal horizontal in situ stress that preferentially keeps open the cross-axial fracture set. Fracture apertures from borehole imagery have a range of 0.1 to 0.3 mm which is consistent with that derived from reservoir pressure behavior. Combining outcrop and well data results in a Natih reservoir fracture model with open cross-axial fractures that have a lithology dependent spacing of 0.1 to 2 m over the entire structure. From these data fracture porosities are calculated for each gridblock in the model. Longitudinal fractures probably exist in the vicinity of faults and in the northern part of the field where rapid down-warping occurs.« less
Simulation of Sediment and Cesium Transport in the Ukedo River and the Ogi Dam Reservoir during a Rainfall Event using the TODAM Code

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Onishi, Yasuo; Yokuda, Satoru T.; Kurikami, Hiroshi

2014-03-28

The accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant in March 2011 caused widespread environmental contamination. Although decontamination activities have been performed in residential areas of the Fukushima area, decontamination of forests, rivers, and reservoirs is still controversial because of the economical, ecological, and technical difficulties. Thus, an evaluation of contaminant transport in such an environment is important for safety assessment and for implementation of possible countermeasures to reduce radiation exposure to the public. The investigation revealed that heavy rainfall events play a significant role in transporting radioactive cesium deposited on the land surface, via soil erosion and sediment transportmore » in rivers. Therefore, we simulated the sediment and cesium transport in the Ukedo River and its tributaries in Fukushima Prefecture, including the Ogaki Dam Reservoir, and the Ogi Dam Reservoir of the Oginosawa River in Fukushima Prefecture during and after a heavy rainfall event by using the TODAM (Time-dependent, One-dimensional Degradation And Migration) code. The main outcomes are the following: • Suspended sand is mostly deposited on the river bottom. Suspended silt and clay, on the other hand, are hardly deposited in the Ukedo River and its tributaries except in the Ogaki Dam Reservoir in the Ukedo River even in low river discharge conditions. • Cesium migrates mainly during high river discharge periods during heavy rainfall events. Silt and clay play more important roles in cesium transport to the sea than sand does. • The simulation results explain variations in the field data on cesium distributions in the river. Additional field data currently being collected and further modeling with these data may shed more light on the cesium distribution variations. • Effects of 40-hour heavy rainfall events on clay and cesium transport continue for more than a month. This is because these reservoirs slow down the storm-induced high flow moving through these reservoirs. • The reservoirs play a major role as a sink of sediment and cesium in the river systems. Some amounts of sediment pass through them along with cesium in dissolved and clay-sorbed cesium forms. • Effects of countermeasures such as overland decontamination, dam control and sorbent injection were tentatively estimated. The simulation suggested that overland decontamination and sorbent injection would be effective for decreasing the contamination of water in the reservoir and in the river below the dam.« less
Determination of dilution factors for discharge of aluminum-containing wastes by public water-supply treatment facilities into lakes and reservoirs in Massachusetts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Colman, John A.; Massey, Andrew J.; Brandt, Sara L.

2011-09-16

Dilution of aluminum discharged to reservoirs in filter-backwash effluents at water-treatment facilities in Massachusetts was investigated by a field study and computer simulation. Determination of dilution is needed so that permits for discharge ensure compliance with water-quality standards for aquatic life. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency chronic standard for aluminum, 87 micrograms per liter (μg/L), rather than the acute standard, 750 μg/L, was used in this investigation because the time scales of chronic exposure (days) more nearly match rates of change in reservoir concentrations than do the time scales of acute exposure (hours).Whereas dilution factors are routinely computed for effluents discharged to streams solely on the basis of flow of the effluent and flow of the receiving stream, dilution determination for effluents discharged to reservoirs is more complex because (1), compared to streams, additional water is available for dilution in reservoirs during low flows as a result of reservoir flushing and storage during higher flows, and (2) aluminum removal in reservoirs occurs by aluminum sedimentation during the residence time of water in the reservoir. Possible resuspension of settled aluminum was not considered in this investigation. An additional concern for setting discharge standards is the substantial concentration of aluminum that can be naturally present in ambient surface waters, usually in association with dissolved organic carbon (DOC), which can bind aluminum and keep it in solution.A method for dilution determination was developed using a mass-balance equation for aluminum and considering sources of aluminum from groundwater, surface water, and filter-backwash effluents and losses caused by sedimentation, water withdrawal, and spill discharge from the reservoir. The method was applied to 13 reservoirs. Data on aluminum and DOC concentrations in reservoirs and influent water were collected during the fall of 2009. Complete reservoir volume was determined to be available for mixing on the basis of vertical and horizontal aluminum-concentration profiling. Losses caused by settling of aluminum were assumed to be proportional to aluminum concentration and reservoir area. The constant of proportionality, as a function of DOC concentration, was established by simulations in each of five reservoirs that differed in DOC concentration.In addition to computing dilution factors, the project determined dilution factors that would be protective with the same statistical basis (frequency of exceedance of the chronic standard) as dilutions computed for streams at the 7-day-average 10-year-recurrence annual low flow (the 7Q10). Low-flow dilutions are used for permitting so that receiving waters are protected even at the worst-case flow levels. The low-flow dilution factors that give the same statistical protection are the lowest annual 7-day-average dilution factors with a recurrence of 10 years, termed 7DF10s. Determination of 7DF10 values for reservoirs required that long periods of record be simulated so that dilution statistics could be determined. Dilution statistics were simulated for 13 reservoirs from 1960 to 2004 using U.S. Geological Survey Firm-Yield Estimator software to model reservoir inputs and outputs and present-day values of filter-effluent discharge and aluminum concentration.Computed settling velocities ranged from 0 centimeters per day (cm/d) at DOC concentrations of 15.5 milligrams per liter (mg/L) to 21.5 cm/d at DOC concentrations of 2.7 mg/L. The 7DF10 values were a function of aluminum effluent discharged. At current (2009) effluent discharge rates, the 7DF10 values varied from 1.8 to 115 among the 13 reservoirs. In most cases, the present-day (2009) discharge resulted in receiving water concentrations that did not exceed the standard at the 7DF10. Exceptions were one reservoir with a very small area and three reservoirs with high concentrations of DOC. Maximum permissible discharges were determined for water-treatment plants by adjusting discharges upward in simulations until the 7DF10 resulted in reservoir concentrations that just met the standard. In terms of aluminum flux, these discharges ranged from 0 to 28 kilograms of aluminum per day.
Experimental Study of Cement - Sandstone/Shale - Brine - CO2 Interactions

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Reactive-transport simulation is a tool that is being used to estimate long-term trapping of CO2, and wellbore and cap rock integrity for geologic CO2 storage. We reacted end member components of a heterolithic sandstone and shale unit that forms the upper section of the In Salah Gas Project carbon storage reservoir in Krechba, Algeria with supercritical CO2, brine, and with/without cement at reservoir conditions to develop experimentally constrained geochemical models for use in reactive transport simulations. Results We observe marked changes in solution composition when CO2 reacted with cement, sandstone, and shale components at reservoir conditions. The geochemical model for the reaction of sandstone and shale with CO2 and brine is a simple one in which albite, chlorite, illite and carbonate minerals partially dissolve and boehmite, smectite, and amorphous silica precipitate. The geochemical model for the wellbore environment is also fairly simple, in which alkaline cements and rock react with CO2-rich brines to form an Fe containing calcite, amorphous silica, smectite and boehmite or amorphous Al(OH)3. Conclusions Our research shows that relatively simple geochemical models can describe the dominant reactions that are likely to occur when CO2 is stored in deep saline aquifers sealed with overlying shale cap rocks, as well as the dominant reactions for cement carbonation at the wellbore interface. PMID:22078161
Quantifying Risks and Uncertainties Associated with Induced Seismicity due to CO2 Injection into Geologic Formations with Faults

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hou, Z.; Nguyen, B. N.; Bacon, D. H.; White, M. D.; Murray, C. J.

2016-12-01

A multiphase flow and reactive transport simulator named STOMP-CO2-R has been developed and coupled to the ABAQUS® finite element package for geomechanical analysis enabling comprehensive thermo-hydro-geochemical-mechanical (THMC) analyses. The coupled THMC simulator has been applied to analyze faulted CO2 reservoir responses (e.g., stress and strain distributions, pressure buildup, slip tendency factor, pressure margin to fracture) with various complexities in fault and reservoir structures and mineralogy. Depending on the geological and reaction network settings, long-term injection of CO2 can have a significant effect on the elastic stiffness and permeability of formation rocks. In parallel, an uncertainty quantification framework (UQ-CO2), which consists of entropy-based prior uncertainty representation, efficient sampling, geostatistical reservoir modeling, and effective response surface analysis, has been developed for quantifying risks and uncertainties associated with CO2 sequestration. It has been demonstrated for evaluating risks in CO2 leakage through natural pathways and wellbores, and for developing predictive reduced order models. Recently, a parallel STOMP-CO2-R has been developed and the updated STOMP/ABAQUS model has been proven to have a great scalability, which makes it possible to integrate the model with the UQ framework to effectively and efficiently explore multidimensional parameter space (e.g., permeability, elastic modulus, crack orientation, fault friction coefficient) for a more systematic analysis of induced seismicity risks.
Site investigation and modelling at "La Maina" landslide (Carnian Alps, Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marcato, G.; Mantovani, M.; Pasuto, A.; Silvano, S.; Tagliavini, F.; Zabuski, L.; Zannoni, A.

2006-01-01

The Sauris reservoir is a hydroelectric basin closed downstream by a 136 m high, double arc concrete dam. The dam is firmly anchored to a consistent rock (Dolomia dello Schlern), but the Lower Triassic clayey formations, cropping out especially in the lower part of the slopes, have made the whole catchment basin increasingly prone to landslides. In recent years, the "La Maina landslide" has opened up several joints over a surface of about 100 000 m2, displacing about 1 500 000 m3 of material. Particular attention is now being given to the evolution of the instability area, as the reservoir is located at the foot of the landslide. Under the commission of the Regional Authority for Civil Protection a numerical modelling simulation in a pseudo-time condition of the slope was developed, in order to understand the risk for transport infrastructures, for some houses and for the reservoir and to take urgent mesaures to stabilize the slope. A monitoring system consisting of four inclinometers, three wire extensometers and ten GPS bench-mark pillars was immediately set up to check on surface and deep displacements. The data collected and the geological and geomorphological evidences was used to carry out a numerical simulation. The reliability of the results was checked by comparing the model with the morphological evidence of the movement. The mitigation measures were designed and realised following the indications provided by the model.
Stable large-scale CO2 storage in defiance of an energy system based on renewable energy - Modelling the impact of varying CO2 injection rates on reservoir behavior

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bannach, Andreas; Hauer, Rene; Martin, Streibel; Stienstra, Gerard; Kühn, Michael

2015-04-01

The IPCC Report 2014 strengthens the need for CO2 storage as part of CCS or BECCS to reach ambitious climate goals despite growing energy demand in the future. The further expansion of renewable energy sources is a second major pillar. As it is today in Germany the weather becomes the controlling factor for electricity production by fossil fuelled power plants which lead to significant fluctuations of CO2-emissions which can be traced in injection rates if the CO2 were captured and stored. To analyse the impact of such changing injection rates on a CO2 storage reservoir. two reservoir simulation models are applied: a. An (smaller) reservoir model approved by gas storage activities for decades, to investigate the dynamic effects in the early stage of storage filling (initial aquifer displacement). b. An anticline structure big enough to accommodate a total amount of ≥ 100 Mega tons CO2 to investigate the dynamic effects for the entire operational life time of the storage under particular consideration of very high filling levels (highest aquifer compression). Therefore a reservoir model was generated. The defined yearly injection rate schedule is based on a study performed on behalf of IZ Klima (DNV GL, 2014). According to this study the exclusive consideration of a pool of coal-fired power plants causes the most intensive dynamically changing CO2 emissions and hence accounts for variations of a system which includes industry driven CO2 production. Besides short-term changes (daily & weekly cycles) seasonal influences are also taken into account. Simulation runs cover a variation of injection points (well locations at the top vs. locations at the flank of the structure) and some other largely unknown reservoir parameters as aquifer size and aquifer mobility. Simulation of a 20 year storage operation is followed by a post-operational shut-in phase which covers approximately 500 years to assess possible effects of changing injection rates on the long-term reservoir behaviour. The cyclic injection operation has an impact on the requirements of the facility design. To define the design basis for the aboveground installations only wellhead pressures are to be considered. For this reason the calculated bottom hole pressures need to be transferred into wellhead pressures. This is done by the application of thermodynamic models which include all relevant processes associated with the fluid flow through production or injection strings. Finally, a commercial analysis is carried out which is based on a total cost estimate (CAPEX & OPEX). The outcome of this analysis demonstrates required certificate prices to reach the common return targets of an industrial project. References DNV GL, " CO2 Transport Infrastructure in Germany - Necessity and Boundary Conditions up to 2050", IZ Klima, Berlin, 2014, http://www.iz-klima.de/.
A kinetic rate model for crystalline basalt dissolution at temperature and pressure conditions relevant for geologic CO2 sequestration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pollyea, R.; Rimstidt, J. D.

2016-12-01

Geologic carbon sequestration in terrestrial basalt reservoirs is predicated on permanent CO2 trapping through CO2-water-rock dissolution reactions followed by carbonate precipitation. Bench-scale experiments have shown these reaction paths to be rapid, occurring on a timescale 100 - 102 years. Moreover, recent results from the CarbFix basalt sequestration pilot project in Iceland demonstrate >95% CO2 isolation two years after a small-scale injection. In order to assess the viability of basalt sequestration worldwide (e.g., Deccan Traps, Columbia Plateau, etc.), flexible simulation tools are required that distill the dissolution reactions into a user-friendly format that is readily transmissible to existing reactive transport numerical simulators. In the present research, we combine experimental results extant in the literature for Icelandic basalt to develop kinetic rate models describing the pH-dependent dissolution of (1) basaltic glass and (2) an aggregate mineral assemblage for crystalline basalt comprising olivine, pyroxene, and plagioclase phases. In order to utilize these kinetic rate models with numerical simulation, a thermodynamic solubility model for each phase is developed for use with the reactive transport simulation code, TOUGHREACT. We use reactive transport simulation in a simple 1-D reactor to compare dissolution of the aggregate crystalline basalt phase with the traditional formulation comprising individual mineral phases for the crystalline basalt. Simulation results are in general agreement, illustrating the efficacy of this simplified approach for modeling basalt dissolution at temperature and pressure conditions typical of geologic CO2 reservoirs. Moreover, this approach may be of value to investigators seeking dissolution models for crystalline basalt in other mafic provinces.
Three-dimensional numerical reservoir simulation of the EGS Demonstration Project at The Geysers geothermal field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borgia, Andrea; Rutqvist, Jonny; Oldenburg, Curt M.; Hutchings, Lawrence; Garcia, Julio; Walters, Mark; Hartline, Craig; Jeanne, Pierre; Dobson, Patrick; Boyle, Katie

2013-04-01

The Enhanced Geothermal System (EGS) Demonstration Project, currently underway at the Northwest Geysers, California, aims to demonstrate the feasibility of stimulating a deep high-temperature reservoir (up to 400 °C) through water injection over a 2-year period. On October 6, 2011, injection of 25 l/s started from the Prati 32 well at a depth interval of 1850-2699 m below sea level. After a period of almost 2 months, the injection rate was raised to 63 l/s. The flow rate was then decreased to 44 l/s after an additional 3.5 months and maintained at 25 l/s up to August 20, 2012. Significant well-head pressure changes were recorded at Prati State 31 well, which is separated from Prati 32 by about 500 m at reservoir level. More subdued pressure increases occur at greater distances. The water injection caused induced seismicity in the reservoir in the vicinity of the well. Microseismic monitoring and interpretation shows that the cloud of seismic events is mainly located in the granitic intrusion below the injection zone, forming a cluster elongated SSE-NNW (azimuth 170°) that dips steeply to the west. In general, the magnitude of the events increases with depth and the hypocenter depth increases with time. This seismic cloud is hypothesized to correlate with enhanced permeability in the high-temperature reservoir and its variation with time. Based on the existing borehole data, we use the GMS™ GUI to construct a realistic three-dimensional (3D) geologic model of the Northwest Geysers geothermal field. This model includes, from the top down, a low permeability graywacke layer that forms the caprock for the reservoir, an isothermal steam zone (known as the normal temperature reservoir) within metagraywacke, a hornfels zone (where the high-temperature reservoir is located), and a felsite layer that is assumed to extend downward to the magmatic heat source. We then map this model onto a rectangular grid for use with the TOUGH2 multiphase, multicomponent, non-isothermal porous media numerical flow simulator in order to model the evolution and injection-related operational dynamics of The Geysers geothermal field. At the bottom of the domain in the felsite, we impose a constant temperature, constant saturation, low-permeability boundary. Laterally we set no-flow boundaries (no mass or heat flow), while at the top we use a fully aqueous-phase-saturated constant atmospheric pressure boundary condition. We compute initial conditions for two different conceptual models. The first conceptual model has two phases (gas and aqueous) with decreasing proportions of gas from the steam zone downward; the second model has dry steam all the way from the steam zone to the bottom. The first may be more similar to a pre-exploitation condition, before production reduced pressure and dried out the system, while the second is calibrated to the pressure and temperature actually measured in the reservoir today. Our preliminary results are in reasonable agreement with the pressure monitoring at Prati State 31. These results will be used in hydrogeomechanical modeling to plan, design, and validate the effects of injection in the system.
How long will my reservoir be contaminated following a post-fire erosion event?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schärer, Christine; Yeates, Peter; Sheridan, Gary; Doerr, Stefan; Nyman, Petter; Langhans, Christoph; Haydon, Shane; Santin, Cristina

2017-04-01

Post fire erosion processes such as debris flows can generate large volumes of sediment, contaminating streams and reservoirs for extended periods. Recent research has enabled the magnitude of the generated load to be reasonably estimated, but what happens once this load of sediment and ash reaches the reservoir? Water treatment plants typically have a threshold contaminant level, above which the treatment capacity is exceeded and the water becomes undeliverable. As hydrologists, soils scientists and geomorphologists we think in terms of volumes of water and masses of sediment, but for water managers the metric that really matters is "How many days will my reservoir be unable to supply water, and what is the chance of that occurring?" Answering this question is difficult as it involves modelling the weather, the fire regime, the post fire hydrology and erosion processes, and finally the hydrodynamics of the reservoir so to be able to predict the propagation of the contaminant plume from the entry point to the reservoir take off point. These models are numerically intensive, and this study develops a new method to combine these models in a way that allows them to be implemented within a Monte Carlo simulation. The new approach was applied to the case study of the Upper Yarra reservoir in south east Australia, the main water supply for Melbourne's 4M residents. The results indicate that following fire water managers should be prepared for post-fire reservoir contamination events extending from several months to more than a year. The duration of the contamination events was found to be extremely sensitive to the quantity, size distribution, and density of the <5um particles of ash and soil, which makes up a small fraction of the total debris flow load.
Study on the Adsorption Phenomenon in Shale with the Combination of Molecular Dynamic Simulation and Fractal Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Liehui; Li, Jianchao; Jia, Du; Zhao, Yulong; Xie, Chunyu; Tao, Zhengwu

As one of the key status of gas in shale reservoir, adsorption gas accounts for considerable percentage of total gas amount. Due to the complexity and nanostructure of shale gas reservoir, it is very challenging to represent adsorption gas through traditional methods. However, the integration of the fractal theory and molecular dynamics (MD) simulation may provide a new perspective of understanding such nanostructure and the micro-phenomenon happening in it. The key purpose of this paper is to investigate the adsorption phenomenon in shale kerogen. By using MD simulation and grand canonical Monte Carlo (GCMC) algorithm, the adsorption of methane in 2, 5 and 10nm slit-like pores is simulated for different temperature and pressure status. According to the results, the average gas density in smaller pores is higher than that in bigger pores, and multilayer adsorption presents on some areas of pore surfaces. Then, the simulation results are analyzed using the multilayer fractal adsorption model. The analysis indicates that the number of adsorption layer increases with pressure increase: four-layer adsorption presents in 10nm pores while three-layer adsorption shows up in 2nm and 5nm pores due to pore volume limit. Fractal dimension of pore wall surface generated in this study is in the range of 2.31-2.63. Moreover, high temperature could decrease the adsorption behavior in reservoir condition.
OGS#PETSc approach for robust and efficient simulations of strongly coupled hydrothermal processes in EGS reservoirs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Watanabe, Norihiro; Blucher, Guido; Cacace, Mauro; Kolditz, Olaf

2016-04-01

A robust and computationally efficient solution is important for 3D modelling of EGS reservoirs. This is particularly the case when the reservoir model includes hydraulic conduits such as induced or natural fractures, fault zones, and wellbore open-hole sections. The existence of such hydraulic conduits results in heterogeneous flow fields and in a strengthened coupling between fluid flow and heat transport processes via temperature dependent fluid properties (e.g. density and viscosity). A commonly employed partitioned solution (or operator-splitting solution) may not robustly work for such strongly coupled problems its applicability being limited by small time step sizes (e.g. 5-10 days) whereas the processes have to be simulated for 10-100 years. To overcome this limitation, an alternative approach is desired which can guarantee a robust solution of the coupled problem with minor constraints on time step sizes. In this work, we present a Newton-Raphson based monolithic coupling approach implemented in the OpenGeoSys simulator (OGS) combined with the Portable, Extensible Toolkit for Scientific Computation (PETSc) library. The PETSc library is used for both linear and nonlinear solvers as well as MPI-based parallel computations. The suggested method has been tested by application to the 3D reservoir site of Groß Schönebeck, in northern Germany. Results show that the exact Newton-Raphson approach can also be limited to small time step sizes (e.g. one day) due to slight oscillations in the temperature field. The usage of a line search technique and modification of the Jacobian matrix were necessary to achieve robust convergence of the nonlinear solution. For the studied example, the proposed monolithic approach worked even with a very large time step size of 3.5 years.
Adsorption and transformation of ammonium ion in a loose-pore geothermal reservoir: Batch and column experiments.

PubMed

Zhao, Li; Li, Yanli; Wang, Shidong; Wang, Xinyi; Meng, Hongqi; Luo, Shaohe

2016-09-01

Adsorption kinetics and transformation process of ammonium ion (NH4(+)) were investigated to advance the understanding of N cycle in a low-temperature loose-pore geothermal reservoir. Firstly, batch experiments were performed in order to determine the sorption capacity and the kinetic mechanism of NH4(+) onto a loose-pore geothermal reservoir matrix. Then column experiments were carried out at temperatures from 20°C to 60°C in order to determine the transport parameters and transformation mechanism of NH4(+) in the studied matrix. The results showed that the adsorption process of NH4(+) onto the porous media well followed the pseudo-second-order model. No obvious variation of hydrodynamic dispersion coefficient (D) and retardation factor (R) was observed at different transport distances at a Darcy's flux of 2.27cm/h, at which nitrification could be neglected. The simulated D obtained by the CDE model in CXTFIT2.1 increased with temperature while R decreased with temperature, indicating that the adsorption capacity of NH4(+) onto the matrix decreased with the increasing of temperature. When the Darcy's flux was decreased to 0.014cm/h, only a little part of NH4(+) could be transformed to nitrate, suggesting that low density of nitrifiers existed in the simulated loose-pore geothermal reservoir. Although nitrification rate increased with temperature in the range of 20°C to 60°C, it was extremely low and no accumulation of nitrite was observed under the simulated low-temperature geothermal conditions without addition of biomass and oxygen. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Projecting impacts of climate change on water availability using artificial neural network techniques

USGS Publications Warehouse

Swain, Eric D.; Gomez-Fragoso, Julieta; Torres-Gonzalez, Sigfredo

2017-01-01

Lago Loíza reservoir in east-central Puerto Rico is one of the primary sources of public water supply for the San Juan metropolitan area. To evaluate and predict the Lago Loíza water budget, an artificial neural network (ANN) technique is trained to predict river inflows. A method is developed to combine ANN-predicted daily flows with ANN-predicted 30-day cumulative flows to improve flow estimates. The ANN application trains well for representing 2007–2012 and the drier 1994–1997 periods. Rainfall data downscaled from global circulation model (GCM) simulations are used to predict 2050–2055 conditions. Evapotranspiration is estimated with the Hargreaves equation using minimum and maximum air temperatures from the downscaled GCM data. These simulated 2050–2055 river flows are input to a water budget formulation for the Lago Loíza reservoir for comparison with 2007–2012. The ANN scenarios require far less computational effort than a numerical model application, yet produce results with sufficient accuracy to evaluate and compare hydrologic scenarios. This hydrologic tool will be useful for future evaluations of the Lago Loíza reservoir and water supply to the San Juan metropolitan area.
Effects of local climate and hydrological conditions on the thermal regime of a reservoir at Tropic of Cancer, in southern China.

PubMed

Wang, Sheng; Qian, Xin; Han, Bo-Ping; Luo, Lian-Cong; Hamilton, David P

2012-05-15

Thermal regime is strongly associated with hydrodynamics in water, and it plays an important role in the dynamics of water quality and ecosystem succession of stratified reservoirs. Changes in both climate and hydrological conditions can modify thermal regimes. Liuxihe Reservoir (23°45'50″N; 113°46'52″E) is a large, stratified and deep reservoir in Guangdong Province, located at the Tropic of Cancer of southern China. The reservoir is a warm monomictic water body with a long period of summer stratification and a short period of mixing in winter. The vertical distribution of suspended particulate material and nutrients are influenced strongly by the thermal structure and the associated flow fields. The hypolimnion becomes anoxic in the stratified period, increasing the release of nutrients from the bottom sediments. Fifty-one years of climate and reservoir operational observations are used here to show the marked changes in local climate and reservoir operational schemes. The data show increasing air temperature and more violent oscillations in inflow volumes in the last decade, while the inter-annual water level fluctuations tend to be more moderate. To quantify the effects of changes in climate and hydrological conditions on thermal structure, we used a numerical simulation model to create scenarios incorporating different air temperatures, inflow volumes, and water levels. The simulations indicate that water column stability, the duration of the mixing period, and surface and outflow temperatures are influenced by both natural factors and by anthropogenic factors such as climate change and reservoir operation schemes. Under continuous warming and more stable storage in recent years, the simulations indicate greater water column stability and increased duration of stratification, while irregular large discharge events may reduce stability and lead to early mixing in autumn. Our results strongly suggest that more attention should be focused on water quality in years of extreme climate variation and hydrological conditions, and selective withdrawal of deep water may provide an efficient means to reduce internal loading in warm years. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Research on the physical properties of supercritical CO2 and the log evaluation of CO2-bearing volcanic reservoirs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, Baozhi; Lei, Jian; Zhang, Lihua; Guo, Yuhang

2017-10-01

CO2-bearing reservoirs are difficult to distinguish from other natural gas reservoirs during gas explorations. Due to the lack of physical parameters for supercritical CO2, particularly neutron porosity, at present a hydrocarbon gas log evaluation method is used to evaluate CO2-bearing reservoirs. The differences in the physical properties of hydrocarbon and CO2 gases have led to serious errors. In this study, the deep volcanic rock of the Songliao Basin was the research area. In accordance with the relationship between the density and acoustic velocity of supercritical CO2 and temperature and pressure, the regularity between the CO2 density and acoustic velocity, and the depth of the area was established. A neutron logging simulation was completed based on a Monte Carlo method. Through the simulation of the wet limestone neutron logging, the relationship between the count rate ratio of short and long space detectors and the neutron porosity was acquired. Then, the nature of the supercritical CO2 neutron moderation was obtained. With consideration given to the complexity of the volcanic rock mineral composition, a volcanic rock volume model was established, and the matrix neutron and density parameters were acquired using the ECS log. The properties of CO2 were applied in the log evaluation of the CO2-bearing volcanic reservoirs in the southern Songliao Basin. The porosity and saturation of CO2 were obtained, and a reasonable application was achieved in the CO2-bearing reservoir.
Integration of fracturing dynamics and pressure transient analysis for hydraulic fracture evaluation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Arihara, N.; Abbaszadeh, M.; Wright, C.A.

This paper presents pre- and post-fracture pressure transient analysis, combined with net fracture pressure interpretation, for a well in a naturally fractured geothermal reservoir. Integrated analysis was performed to achieve a consistent interpretation of the created fracture geometry, propagation, conductivity, shrinkage, reservoir flow behavior, and formation permeability characteristics. The interpreted data includes two-rate pre-frac injection tests, step-rate injection tests, a series of pressure falloff tests, and the net fracturing pressure from a massive fracture treatment. Pressure transient analyses were performed utilizing advanced well test interpretation techniques and a thermal reservoir simulator with fracture propagation option. Hydraulic fracture propagation analysis wasmore » also performed Milt a generalized 3-D dynamic fracture growth model simulator. Three major conclusions resulted from the combined analysis: (1) that an increasing number of hydraulic fractures were being simultaneously propagated during the fracture treatment. (2) that the reservoir behaved as a composite reservoir Keith the outer region permeability being greater than the permeability of the region immediately surrounding the wellbore, and (3) that the created fractures extended into the outer region during the fracture treatment but retreated to the inner region several days after stimulation had ceased. These conclusions were apparent from independent pressure transient analysis and from independent hydraulic fracture propagation analysis. Integrated interpretation, however, increased the confidence in these conclusions and greatly aided the quantification of the created hydraulic fracture geometry and characterization of the reservoir permeability.« less

Progress report on LBL's numerical modeling studies on Cerro Prieto

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Halfman-Dooley, S.E.; Lippman, M.J.; Bodvarsson, G.S.

1989-04-01

An exploitation model of the Cerro Prieto geothermal system is needed to assess the energy capacity of the field, estimate its productive lifetime and develop an optimal reservoir management plan. The model must consider the natural state (i.e., pre-exploitation) conditions of the system and be able to predict changes in the reservoir thermodynamic conditions (and fluid chemistry) in response to fluid production (and injection). This paper discusses the results of a three-dimensional numerical simulation of the natural state conditions of the Cerro Prieto field and compares computed and observed pressure and temperature/enthalpy changes for the 1973--1987 production period. 16 refs.,more » 24 figs., 2 tabs.« less
Field-Scale Modeling of Local Capillary Trapping During CO2 Injection into a Saline Aquifer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ren, B.; Lake, L. W.; Bryant, S. L.

2015-12-01

Local capillary trapping is the small-scale (10-2 to 10+1 m) CO2 trapping that is caused by the capillary pressure heterogeneity. The benefit of LCT, applied specially to CO2 sequestration, is that saturation of stored CO2 is larger than the residual gas, yet these CO2 are not susceptible to leakage through failed seals. Thus quantifying the extent of local capillary trapping is valuable in design and risk assessment of geologic storage projects. Modeling local capillary trapping is computationally expensive and may even be intractable using a conventional reservoir simulator. In this paper, we propose a novel method to model local capillary trapping by combining geologic criteria and connectivity analysis. The connectivity analysis originally developed for characterizing well-to-reservoir connectivity is adapted to this problem by means of a newly defined edge weight property between neighboring grid blocks, which accounts for the multiphase flow properties, injection rate, and gravity effect. Then the connectivity is estimated from shortest path algorithm to predict the CO2 migration behavior and plume shape during injection. A geologic criteria algorithm is developed to estimate the potential local capillary traps based only on the entry capillary pressure field. The latter is correlated to a geostatistical realization of permeability field. The extended connectivity analysis shows a good match of CO2 plume computed by the full-physics simulation. We then incorporate it into the geologic algorithm to quantify the amount of LCT structures identified within the entry capillary pressure field that can be filled during CO2 injection. Several simulations are conducted in the reservoirs with different level of heterogeneity (measured by the Dykstra-Parsons coefficient) under various injection scenarios. We find that there exists a threshold Dykstra-Parsons coefficient, below which low injection rate gives rise to more LCT; whereas higher injection rate increases LCT in heterogeneous reservoirs. Both the geologic algorithm and connectivity analysis are very fast; therefore, the integrated methodology can be used as a quick tool to estimate local capillary trapping. It can also be used as a potential complement to the full-physics simulation to evaluate safe storage capacity.
Non-equilibrium simulation of CH4 production through the depressurization method from gas hydrate reservoirs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qorbani, Khadijeh; Kvamme, Bjørn

2016-04-01

Natural gas hydrates (NGHs) in nature are formed from various hydrate formers (i.e. aqueous, gas, and adsorbed phases). As a result, due to Gibbs phase rule and the combined first and second laws of thermodynamics CH4-hydrate cannot reach thermodynamic equilibrium in real reservoir conditions. CH4 is the dominant component in NGH reservoirs. It is formed as a result of biogenic degradation of biological material in the upper few hundred meters of subsurface. It has been estimated that the amount of fuel-gas reserve in NGHs exceed the total amount of fossil fuel explored until today. Thus, these reservoirs have the potential to satisfy the energy requirements of the future. However, released CH4 from dissociated NGHs could find its way to the atmosphere and it is a far more aggressive greenhouse gas than CO2, even though its life-time is shorter. Lack of reliable field data makes it difficult to predict the production potential, as well as safety of CH4 production from NGHs. Computer simulations can be used as a tool to investigate CH4 production through different scenarios. Most hydrate simulators within academia and industry treat hydrate phase transitions as an equilibrium process and those which employ the kinetic approach utilize simple laboratory data in their models. Furthermore, it is typical to utilize a limited thermodynamic description where only temperature and pressure projections are considered. Another widely used simplification is to assume only a single route for the hydrate phase transitions. The non-equilibrium nature of hydrate indicates a need for proper kinetic models to describe hydrate dissociation and reformation in the reservoir with respect to thermodynamics variables, CH4 mole-fraction, pressure and temperature. The RetrasoCodeBright (RCB) hydrate simulator has previously been extended to model CH4-hydrate dissociation towards CH4 gas and water. CH4-hydrate is added to the RCB data-base as a pseudo mineral. Phase transitions are treated as non-equilibrium processes under local constraint of mass and heat fluxes. In this work, we have extended RCB by adding another route for dissociation or reformation of CH4-hydrate towards CH4 into the aqueous phase and water. CH4-hydrate formation and dissociation is resolved by looking at supersaturation and undersaturation with respect to thermodynamics variables. Hydrate instability due to undersaturation of CH4 in the contacting water phase is also considered. A complete non-equilibrium thermodynamic package, developed in-house, was combined with RCB to account for competing phase transitions by considering the minimization of Gibb's free energy. The energy differences were calculated from variations in chemical potentials of hydrate and hydrate formers. Mass transport, heat transport and non-equilibrium thermodynamic effects were implemented through classical nucleation theory to model the kinetic rate of hydrate phase transitions. To illustrate our implementations we ran simulations covering time-spans in the order of hundred years. CH4 production was modelled using the depressurization method, where we employed the Messoyakha field data. We discuss our implementations, as well as results obtained from simulations utilizing our modifications.
Evaluation de l'impact du vent et des manoeuvres hydrauliques sur le calcul des apports naturels par bilan hydrique pour un reservoir hydroelectrique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roy, Mathieu

Natural inflow is an important data for a water resource manager. In fact, Hydro-Quebec uses historical natural inflow data to perform a daily prediction of the amount of water that will be received in each of its hydroelectric reservoirs. This prediction allows the establishment of reservoir operating rules in order to optimize hydropower without compromising the safety of hydraulic structures. To obtain an accurate prediction, it follows that the system's input needs to be very well known. However, it can be very difficult to accurately measure the natural supply of a set of regulated reservoirs. Therefore, Hydro-Quebec uses an indirect method of calculation. This method consists of evaluating the reservoir's inflow using the water balance equation. Yet, this equation is not immune to errors and uncertainties. Water level measurement is an important input in order to compute the water balance equation. However, several sources of uncertainty including the effect of wind and hydraulic maneuvers can affect the readings of limnimetric gages. Fluctuations in water level caused by these effects carry over in the water balance equation. Consequently, natural inflow's signal may become noisy and affected by external errors. The main objective of this report is to evaluate the uncertainty caused by the effects of wind and hydraulic maneuvers on water balance equation. To this end, hydrodynamic models of reservoirs Outardes 4 and Gouin were prepared. According to the literature review, wind effects can be studied either by an unsteady state approach or by assuming steady state approach. Unsteady state simulation of wind effects on reservoir Gouin and Outardes 4 were performed by hydrodynamic modelling. Consideration of an unsteady state implies that the wind conditions vary throughout the simulation. This feature allows taking into account temporal effect of wind duration. In addition, it also allows the consideration of inertial forces such as seiches which are caused by wind conditions that can vary abruptly. Once the models were calibrated, unsteady state simulations were conducted in closed system where unsteady observed winds were the only forces included. From the simulated water levels obtained at each gage, water balance equation was calculated to determine the daily uncertainty of natural inflow in unsteady conditions. At Outardes 4, a maximum uncertainty of 20 m3/s was estimated during the month of October 2010. On the other hand, at the Gouin reservoir, a maximum uncertainty of 340m3/s was estimated during the month of July 2012. Steady state modelling is another approach to evaluate wind effect uncertainty in the water balance equation. This type of approach consists of assuming that the water level is instantly tilted under the influence of wind. Hence, temporal effect of wind duration and seiches cannot be taken into account. However, the advantage of steady state modelling is that it's better suited than unsteady state modelling to evaluate wind uncertainty in real time. Two steady state modelling methods were experimented to estimate water level difference between gages in function of wind characteristics: hydrodynamic modelling and non-parametric regression. It has been found that non-parametric models are more efficient when it comes to estimate water level differences between gages. However, the use of hydrodynamic model demonstrated that to study wind uncertainty in the water balance equation, it is preferable to assess wind responses individually at each gage instead of using water level differences. Finally, a combination method of water level gages observations has been developed. It allows reducing wind/hydraulic maneuvers impacts on the water balance equation. This method, which is applicable in real time, consists of assigning a variable weight at each limnimetric gages. In other words, the weights automatically adjust in order to minimize steady state modeled wind responses. The estimation of hydraulic maneuvers has also been included in the gage weight adjustment. It has been found that this new combination method allows the correction of noisy natural inflow signal under wind and hydraulic maneuvers effects. However, some fluctuations persist which reflects the complexity of correcting these effects on a real time based daily water balance equation. (Abstract shortened by UMI.).
Microscopic models for uphill diffusion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Colangeli, Matteo; De Masi, Anna; Presutti, Errico

2017-10-01

We study a system of particles which jump on the sites of the interval [1, L] of { Z} . The density at the boundaries is kept fixed to simulate the action of mass reservoirs. The evolution depends on two parameters \
Modeling of CBM production, CO2 injection, and tracer movement at a field CO2 sequestration site

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Siriwardane, Hema J.; Bowes, Benjamin D.; Bromhal, Grant S.

2012-07-01

Sequestration of carbon dioxide in unmineable coal seams is a potential technology mainly because of the potential for simultaneous enhanced coalbed methane production (ECBM). Several pilot tests have been performed around the globe leading to mixed results. Numerous modeling efforts have been carried out successfully to model methane production and carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) injection. Sensitivity analyses and history matching along with several optimization tools were used to estimate reservoir properties and to investigate reservoir performance. Geological and geophysical techniques have also been used to characterize field sequestration sites and to inspect reservoir heterogeneity. The fate and movement of injectedmore » CO{sub 2} can be determined by using several monitoring techniques. Monitoring of perfluorocarbon (PFC) tracers is one of these monitoring technologies. As a part of this monitoring technique, a small fraction of a traceable fluid is added to the injection wellhead along with the CO{sub 2} stream at different times to monitor the timing and location of the breakthrough in nearby monitoring wells or offset production wells. A reservoir modeling study was performed to simulate a pilot sequestration site located in the San Juan coal basin of northern New Mexico. Several unknown reservoir properties at the field site were estimated by modeling the coal seam as a dual porosity formation and by history matching the methane production and CO{sub 2} injection. In addition to reservoir modeling of methane production and CO{sub 2} injection, tracer injection was modeled. Tracers serve as a surrogate for determining potential leakage of CO{sub 2}. The tracer was modeled as a non-reactive gas and was injected into the reservoir as a mixture along with CO{sub 2}. Geologic and geometric details of the field site, numerical modeling details of methane production, CO{sub 2} injection, and tracer injection are presented in this paper. Moreover, the numerical predictions of the tracer arrival times were compared with the measured field data. Results show that tracer modeling is useful in investigating movement of injected CO{sub 2} into the coal seam at the field site. Also, such new modeling techniques can be utilized to determine potential leakage pathways, and to investigate reservoir anisotropy and heterogeneity.« less
Fracturing And Liquid CONvection

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

2012-02-29

FALCON has been developed to enable simulation of the tightly coupled fluid-rock behavior in hydrothermal and engineered geothermal system (EGS) reservoirs, targeting the dynamics of fracture stimulation, fluid flow, rock deformation, and heat transport in a single integrated code, with the ultimate goal of providing a tool that can be used to test the viability of EGS in the United States and worldwide. Reliable reservoir performance predictions of EGS systems require accurate and robust modeling for the coupled thermalhydrologicalmechanical processes.
The calculation of the phase equilibrium of the multicomponent hydrocarbon systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Molchanov, D. A.

2018-01-01

Hydrocarbon mixtures filtration process simulation development has resulted in use of cubic equations of state of the van der Waals type to describe the thermodynamic properties of natural fluids under real thermobaric conditions. Binary hydrocarbon systems allow to simulate the fluids of different types of reservoirs qualitatively, what makes it possible to carry out the experimental study of their filtration features. Exploitation of gas-condensate reservoirs shows the possibility of existence of various two-phase filtration regimes, including self-oscillatory one, which occurs under certain values of mixture composition, temperature and pressure drop. Plotting of the phase diagram of the model mixture is required to determine these values. A software package to calculate the vapor-liquid equilibrium of binary systems using cubic equation of state of the van der Waals type has been created. Phase diagrams of gas-condensate model mixtures have been calculated.
Point-to-point connectivity prediction in porous media using percolation theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tavagh-Mohammadi, Behnam; Masihi, Mohsen; Ganjeh-Ghazvini, Mostafa

2016-10-01

The connectivity between two points in porous media is important for evaluating hydrocarbon recovery in underground reservoirs or toxic migration in waste disposal. For example, the connectivity between a producer and an injector in a hydrocarbon reservoir impact the fluid dispersion throughout the system. The conventional approach, flow simulation, is computationally very expensive and time consuming. Alternative method employs percolation theory. Classical percolation approach investigates the connectivity between two lines (representing the wells) in 2D cross sectional models whereas we look for the connectivity between two points (representing the wells) in 2D aerial models. In this study, site percolation is used to determine the fraction of permeable regions connected between two cells at various occupancy probabilities and system sizes. The master curves of mean connectivity and its uncertainty are then generated by finite size scaling. The results help to predict well-to-well connectivity without need to any further simulation.
Global Sampling for Integrating Physics-Specific Subsystems and Quantifying Uncertainties of CO 2 Geological Sequestration

DOE PAGES

Sun, Y.; Tong, C.; Trainor-Guitten, W. J.; ...

2012-12-20

The risk of CO 2 leakage from a deep storage reservoir into a shallow aquifer through a fault is assessed and studied using physics-specific computer models. The hypothetical CO 2 geological sequestration system is composed of three subsystems: a deep storage reservoir, a fault in caprock, and a shallow aquifer, which are modeled respectively by considering sub-domain-specific physics. Supercritical CO 2 is injected into the reservoir subsystem with uncertain permeabilities of reservoir, caprock, and aquifer, uncertain fault location, and injection rate (as a decision variable). The simulated pressure and CO 2/brine saturation are connected to the fault-leakage model as amore » boundary condition. CO 2 and brine fluxes from the fault-leakage model at the fault outlet are then imposed in the aquifer model as a source term. Moreover, uncertainties are propagated from the deep reservoir model, to the fault-leakage model, and eventually to the geochemical model in the shallow aquifer, thus contributing to risk profiles. To quantify the uncertainties and assess leakage-relevant risk, we propose a global sampling-based method to allocate sub-dimensions of uncertain parameters to sub-models. The risk profiles are defined and related to CO 2 plume development for pH value and total dissolved solids (TDS) below the EPA's Maximum Contaminant Levels (MCL) for drinking water quality. A global sensitivity analysis is conducted to select the most sensitive parameters to the risk profiles. The resulting uncertainty of pH- and TDS-defined aquifer volume, which is impacted by CO 2 and brine leakage, mainly results from the uncertainty of fault permeability. Subsequently, high-resolution, reduced-order models of risk profiles are developed as functions of all the decision variables and uncertain parameters in all three subsystems.« less
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sun, Y.; Tong, C.; Trainor-Guitten, W. J.

The risk of CO 2 leakage from a deep storage reservoir into a shallow aquifer through a fault is assessed and studied using physics-specific computer models. The hypothetical CO 2 geological sequestration system is composed of three subsystems: a deep storage reservoir, a fault in caprock, and a shallow aquifer, which are modeled respectively by considering sub-domain-specific physics. Supercritical CO 2 is injected into the reservoir subsystem with uncertain permeabilities of reservoir, caprock, and aquifer, uncertain fault location, and injection rate (as a decision variable). The simulated pressure and CO 2/brine saturation are connected to the fault-leakage model as amore » boundary condition. CO 2 and brine fluxes from the fault-leakage model at the fault outlet are then imposed in the aquifer model as a source term. Moreover, uncertainties are propagated from the deep reservoir model, to the fault-leakage model, and eventually to the geochemical model in the shallow aquifer, thus contributing to risk profiles. To quantify the uncertainties and assess leakage-relevant risk, we propose a global sampling-based method to allocate sub-dimensions of uncertain parameters to sub-models. The risk profiles are defined and related to CO 2 plume development for pH value and total dissolved solids (TDS) below the EPA's Maximum Contaminant Levels (MCL) for drinking water quality. A global sensitivity analysis is conducted to select the most sensitive parameters to the risk profiles. The resulting uncertainty of pH- and TDS-defined aquifer volume, which is impacted by CO 2 and brine leakage, mainly results from the uncertainty of fault permeability. Subsequently, high-resolution, reduced-order models of risk profiles are developed as functions of all the decision variables and uncertain parameters in all three subsystems.« less
The hydrological calibration and validation of a complexly-linked watershed reservoir model for the Occoquan watershed, Virginia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Zhongyan; Godrej, Adil N.; Grizzard, Thomas J.

2007-10-01

SummaryRunoff models such as HSPF and reservoir models such as CE-QUAL-W2 are used to model water quality in watersheds. Most often, the models are independently calibrated to observed data. While this approach can achieve good calibration, it does not replicate the physically-linked nature of the system. When models are linked by using the model output from an upstream model as input to a downstream model, the physical reality of a continuous watershed, where the overland and waterbody portions are parts of the whole, is better represented. There are some additional challenges in the calibration of such linked models, because the aim is to simulate the entire system as a whole, rather than piecemeal. When public entities are charged with model development, one of the driving forces is to use public-domain models. This paper describes the use of two such models, HSPF and CE-QUAL-W2, in the linked modeling of the Occoquan watershed located in northern Virginia, USA. The description of the process is provided, and results from the hydrological calibration and validation are shown. The Occoquan model consists of six HSPF and two CE-QUAL-W2 models, linked in a complex way, to simulate two major reservoirs and the associated drainage areas. The overall linked model was calibrated for a three-year period and validated for a two-year period. The results show that a successful calibration can be achieved using the linked approach, with moderate additional effort. Overall flow balances based on the three-year calibration period at four stream stations showed agreement ranging from -3.95% to +3.21%. Flow balances for the two reservoirs, compared via the daily water surface elevations, also showed good agreement ( R2 values of 0.937 for Lake Manassas and 0.926 for Occoquan Reservoir), when missing (un-monitored) flows were included. Validation of the models ranged from poor to fair for the watershed models and excellent for the waterbody models, thus indicating that the current model can be used to explore waterbody issues, but should be used with appropriate care for watershed issues. The study objective of being able to use the Occoquan model to study the impact of land use changes on hydrodynamics and water quality in the waterbodies, particularly the Occoquan Reservoir, can be met with the current model. However, appropriate judgment should be exercised when using the model for the prediction of watershed runoff. One of the advantages of using the linked approach is to develop a direct linkage between upstream land use changes and downstream water quality. This makes it easier for decision-makers to evaluate alternative watershed management plans and for the public to understand the decision-making process. The successful calibration of hydrology provides a solid base for further model development and application.
Deep geothermal systems interpreted by coupled thermo-hydraulic-mechanical-chemical numerical modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peters, Max; Lesueur, Martin; Held, Sebastian; Poulet, Thomas; Veveakis, Manolis; Regenauer-Lieb, Klaus; Kohl, Thomas

2017-04-01

The dynamic response of the geothermal reservoirs of Soultz-sous-Forêts (NE France) and a new site in Iceland are theoretically studied upon fluid injection and production. Since the Soultz case can be considered the most comprehensive project in the area of enhanced geothermal systems (EGS), it is tailored for the testing of forward modeling techniques that aim at the characterization of fluid dynamics and mechanical properties in any deeply-seated fractured cystalline reservoir [e.g. Held et al., 2014]. We present multi-physics finite element models using the recently developed framework MOOSE (mooseframework.org) that implicitly consider fully-coupled feedback mechanisms of fluid-rock interaction at depth where EGS are located (depth > 5 km), i.e. the effects of dissipative strain softening on chemical reactions and reactive transport [Poulet et al., 2016]. In a first suite of numerical experiments, we show that an accurate simulation of propagation fronts allows studying coupled fluid and heat transport, following preferred pathways, and the transport time of the geothermal fluid between injection and production wells, which is in good agreement with tracer experiments performed inside the natural reservoir. Based on induced seismicity experiments and related damage along boreholes, we concern with borehole instabilities resulting from pore pressure variations and (a)seismic creep in a second series of simulations. To this end, we account for volumetric and deviatoric components, following the approach of Veveakis et al. (2016), and discuss the mechanisms triggering slow earthquakes in the stimulated reservoirs. Our study will allow applying concepts of unconventional geomechanics, which were previously reviewed on a theoretical basis [Regenauer-Lieb et al., 2015], to substantial engineering problems of deep geothermal reservoirs in the future. REFERENCES Held, S., Genter, A., Kohl, T., Kölbel, T., Sausse, J. and Schoenball, M. (2014). Economic evaluation of geothermal reservoir performance through modeling the complexity of the operating EGS in Soultz-sous-Forêts. Geothermics, 51, 270-280, doi:10.1016/j.geothermics.2014.01.016 Poulet, T., Paesold, M. and Veveakis, M. (2016). Multi-Physics Modelling of Fault Mechanics Using REDBACK: A Parallel Open-Source Simulator for Tightly Coupled Problems. Rock Mechanics and Rock Engineering, doi:10.1007/s00603-016-0927-y Regenauer-Lieb, K., Bunger, A., Chua, H. T., et al., 2015. Deep Geothermal: The 'Moon Landing' Mission in the Unconventional Energy and Minerals Space. Journal of Earth Science, 26(1): 2-10, doi:10.1007/s12583-015-0515-1 Veveakis, M., Alevizos, S., Poulet, T. (2016). Episodic Tremor and Slip (ETS) as a chaotic Multiphysics spring. Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors, in press, doi:10.1016/j.pepi.2016.10.002
Simplified Physics Based Models Research Topical Report on Task #2

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mishra, Srikanta; Ganesh, Priya

We present a simplified-physics based approach, where only the most important physical processes are modeled, to develop and validate simplified predictive models of CO2 sequestration in deep saline formation. The system of interest is a single vertical well injecting supercritical CO2 into a 2-D layered reservoir-caprock system with variable layer permeabilities. We use a set of well-designed full-physics compositional simulations to understand key processes and parameters affecting pressure propagation and buoyant plume migration. Based on these simulations, we have developed correlations for dimensionless injectivity as a function of the slope of fractional-flow curve, variance of layer permeability values, and themore » nature of vertical permeability arrangement. The same variables, along with a modified gravity number, can be used to develop a correlation for the total storage efficiency within the CO2 plume footprint. Similar correlations are also developed to predict the average pressure within the injection reservoir, and the pressure buildup within the caprock.« less
Stream-water storage in the ocean using an impermeable membrane

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murabayashi, E. T.; Asuka, M.; Yamada, R.; Fok, Y. S.; Gee, H. K.

1983-05-01

The conceptual feasibility of storing fresh water in the ocean was investigated using a plastic membrane as the reservoir liner. In the initial phase, two physical hydraulic models were constructed to test the concept. The first was a water-filled, glass-sided box to observe the movement and reaction of the membrane to various simulated effects of currents, waves, and sediment deposition. The second was a 1:400-scale model (6.7 x 6.1 m) of West Loch, Pearl Harbor (a potential field application site), with 1:24 vertical exaggeration for similitude. The curtain method was used because it can enclose a large water body. The effect of wind, waves, tides, and currents on the curtain were simulated and the reactions observed. Although modeling is a useful tool for investigating initial concepts, its direct field application is limited because of scaling. Curtains, floating reservoirs, and bags were constructed of polyethylene sheets and deployed. All worked well after modifications were made following initial testing.
Mathematical and field analysis of longitudinal reservoir infill

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ke, W. T.; Capart, H.

2016-12-01

In reservoirs, severe problems are caused by infilled sediment deposits. In long term, the sediment accumulation reduces the capacity of reservoir storage and flood control benefits. In the short term, the sediment deposits influence the intakes of water-supply and hydroelectricity generation. For the management of reservoir, it is important to understand the deposition process and then to predict the sedimentation in reservoir. To investigate the behaviors of sediment deposits, we propose a one-dimensional simplified theory derived by the Exner equation to predict the longitudinal sedimentation distribution in idealized reservoirs. The theory models the reservoir infill geomorphic actions for three scenarios: delta progradation, near-dam bottom deposition, and final infill. These yield three kinds of self-similar analytical solutions for the reservoir bed profiles, under different boundary conditions. Three analytical solutions are composed by error function, complementary error function, and imaginary error function, respectively. The theory is also computed by finite volume method to test the analytical solutions. The theoretical and numerical predictions are in good agreement with one-dimensional small-scale laboratory experiment. As the theory is simple to apply with analytical solutions and numerical computation, we propose some applications to simulate the long-profile evolution of field reservoirs and focus on the infill sediment deposit volume resulting the uplift of near-dam bottom elevation. These field reservoirs introduced here are Wushe Reservoir, Tsengwen Reservoir, Mudan Reservoir in Taiwan, Lago Dos Bocas in Puerto Rico, and Sakuma Dam in Japan.
Optimization of multi-reservoir operation with a new hedging rule: application of fuzzy set theory and NSGA-II

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmadianfar, Iman; Adib, Arash; Taghian, Mehrdad

2017-10-01

The reservoir hedging rule curves are used to avoid severe water shortage during drought periods. In this method reservoir storage is divided into several zones, wherein the rationing factors are changed immediately when water storage level moves from one zone to another. In the present study, a hedging rule with fuzzy rationing factors was applied for creating a transition zone in up and down each rule curve, and then the rationing factor will be changed in this zone gradually. For this propose, a monthly simulation model was developed and linked to the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm for calculation of the modified shortage index of two objective functions involving water supply of minimum flow and agriculture demands in a long-term simulation period. Zohre multi-reservoir system in south Iran has been considered as a case study. The results of the proposed hedging rule have improved the long-term system performance from 10 till 27 percent in comparison with the simple hedging rule, where these results demonstrate that the fuzzification of hedging factors increase the applicability and the efficiency of the new hedging rule in comparison to the conventional rule curve for mitigating the water shortage problem.
Investigating the effects of rock porosity and permeability on the performance of nitrogen injection into a southern Iranian oil reservoirs through neural network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gheshmi, M. S.; Fatahiyan, S. M.; Khanesary, N. T.; Sia, C. W.; Momeni, M. S.

2018-03-01

In this work, a comprehensive model for Nitrogen injection into an oil reservoir (southern Iranian oil fields) was developed and used to investigate the effects of rock porosity and permeability on the oil production rate and the reservoir pressure decline. The model was simulated and developed by using ECLIPSE300 software, which involved two scenarios as porosity change and permeability changes in the horizontal direction. We found that the maximum pressure loss occurs at a porosity value of 0.07, which later on, goes to pressure buildup due to reservoir saturation with the gas. Also we found that minimum pressure loss is encountered at porosity 0.46. Increases in both pressure and permeability in the horizontal direction result in corresponding increase in the production rate, and the pressure drop speeds up at the beginning of production as it increases. However, afterwards, this pressure drop results in an increase in pressure because of reservoir saturation. Besides, we determined the regression values, R, for the correlation between pressure and total production, as well as for the correlation between permeability and the total production, using neural network discipline.
Simulation and Characterization of Methane Hydrate Formation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dhakal, S.; Gupta, I.

2017-12-01

The ever rising global energy demand dictates human endeavor to explore and exploit new and innovative energy sources. As conventional oil and gas reserves deplete, we are constantly looking for newer sources for sustainable energy. Gas hydrates have long been discussed as the next big energy resource to the earth. Its global occurrence and vast quantity of natural gas stored is one of the main reasons for such interest in its study and exploration. Gas hydrates are solid crystalline substances with trapped molecules of gas inside cage-like crystals of water molecules. Gases such as methane, ethane, propane and carbon dioxide can form hydrates but in natural state, methane hydrates are the most common. Subsurface geological conditions with high pressure and low temperature favor the formation and stability of gas hydrates. While the occurrence and potential of gas hydrates as energy source has long been studied, there are still gaps in knowledge, especially in the quantitative research of gas hydrate formation and reservoir characterization. This study is focused on exploring and understanding the geological setting in which gas hydrates are formed and the subsequent changes in rock characteristics as they are deposited. It involves the numerical simulation of methane gas flow through fault to form hydrates. The models are representative of the subsurface geologic setting of Gulf of Mexico with a fault through layers of shale and sandstone. Hydrate formation simulated is of thermogenic origin. The simulations are conducted using TOUGH+HYDRATE, a numerical code developed at the Lawrence Berkley National Laboratory for modeling multiphase flow through porous medium. Simulation results predict that as the gas hydrates form in the pores of the model, the porosity, permeability and other rock properties are altered. Preliminary simulation results have shown that hydrates begin to form in the fault zone and gradually in the sandstone layers. The increase in hydrate saturation is followed by decrease in the porosity and permeability of the reservoir rock. Sensitivities on flow rates of gas and water are simulated, using different reservoir properties, fault angles and grid sizes to study the properties of hydrate formation and accumulation in the subsurface.
Large-scale expensive black-box function optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rashid, Kashif; Bailey, William; Couët, Benoît

2012-09-01

This paper presents the application of an adaptive radial basis function method to a computationally expensive black-box reservoir simulation model of many variables. An iterative proxy-based scheme is used to tune the control variables, distributed for finer control over a varying number of intervals covering the total simulation period, to maximize asset NPV. The method shows that large-scale simulation-based function optimization of several hundred variables is practical and effective.

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