Cockpit resource management skills enhance combat mission performance in a B-52 simulator

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Povenmire, H. Kingsley; Rockway, Marty R.; Bunecke, Joseph L.; Patton, Mark W.

1989-01-01

A cockpit resource management (CRM) program for mission-ready B-52 aircrew is developed. The relationship between CRM performance and combat mission performance is studied. The performances of six crew members flying a simulated high workload mission in a B-52 weapon system trainer are evaluated. The data reveal that CRM performance enhances tactical maneuvers and bombing accuracy.

Simulating long-term effectiveness and efficiency of management scenarios for an invasive grass

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Holcombe, Tracy R.; Cullinane Thomas, Catherine; Frid, Leonardo; Olsson, Aaryn D.

2015-01-01

Resource managers are often faced with trade-offs in allocating limited resources to manage plant invasions. These decisions must often be made with uncertainty about the location of infestations, their rate of spread and effectiveness of management actions. Landscape level simulation tools such as state-and-transition simulation models (STSMs) can be used to evaluate the potential long term consequences of alternative management strategies and help identify those strategies that make efficient use of resources. We analyzed alternative management scenarios for African buffelgrass (Pennisetum ciliare syn. Cenchrus ciliaris) at Ironwood Forest National Monument, Arizona using a spatially explicit STSM implemented in the Tool for Exploratory Landscape Scenario Analyses (TELSA). Buffelgrass is an invasive grass that is spreading rapidly in the Sonoran Desert, affecting multiple habitats and jurisdictions. This invasion is creating a novel fire risk and transforming natural ecosystems. The model used in this application incorporates buffelgrass dispersal and establishment and management actions and effectiveness including inventory, treatment and post-treatment maintenance. We simulated 11 alternative scenarios developed in consultation with buffelgrass managers and other stakeholders. The scenarios vary according to the total budget allocated for management and the allocation of that budget between different kinds of management actions. Scenario results suggest that to achieve an actual reduction and stabilization of buffelgrass populations, management unconstrained by fiscal restrictions and across all jurisdictions and private lands is required; without broad and aggressive management, buffelgrass populations are expected to increase over time. However, results also suggest that large upfront investments can achieve control results that require relatively minimal spending in the future. Investing the necessary funds upfront to control the invasion results in the most efficient use of resources to achieve lowest invaded acreage in the long-term.

Making patient safety the focus: crisis resource management in the undergraduate curriculum.

PubMed

Flanagan, Brendan; Nestel, Debra; Joseph, Michele

2004-01-01

This paper examines the role of high fidelity simulation and crisis resource management in bridging the gap between theory and practice. Patient safety is fundamental to healthcare professional practice and is a common goal for healthcare providers. It provides a focus to motivate practitioners. Patient safety issues are not a priority in undergraduate curricula. Raising the profile at this level is crucial to improving the safety and quality of healthcare delivery. This paper explores the role of simulation in providing a realistic, safe environment for participants with different levels of experience to manage evolving crises in the context of their work environment. The Southern Health Simulation and Skills Centre uses a patient safety focus in delivering a specialised educational programme adapted from aviation to healthcare. The programme, crisis resource management, enables participants to consolidate knowledge, attitudes and skills to achieve a deeper understanding of how their performance impacts on patient safety and the quality of healthcare provided. Self-reported written evaluation data was collected from participants of three different courses at Southern Health. Participants consistently report that these courses offer unique learning experiences that address aspects of workplace learning in ways that have not previously been possible. A video-assisted reflective process powerfully reinforces learning. Crisis resource management courses demonstrate the value of simulation in bridging the gap between 'knowing' and 'doing' and keeping the focus on patient safety. Recommendations are made for ways in which the core elements of crisis resource management philosophy can influence the conceptualization of a new medical curriculum.

NASA's Information Power Grid: Large Scale Distributed Computing and Data Management

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnston, William E.; Vaziri, Arsi; Hinke, Tom; Tanner, Leigh Ann; Feiereisen, William J.; Thigpen, William; Tang, Harry (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Large-scale science and engineering are done through the interaction of people, heterogeneous computing resources, information systems, and instruments, all of which are geographically and organizationally dispersed. The overall motivation for Grids is to facilitate the routine interactions of these resources in order to support large-scale science and engineering. Multi-disciplinary simulations provide a good example of a class of applications that are very likely to require aggregation of widely distributed computing, data, and intellectual resources. Such simulations - e.g. whole system aircraft simulation and whole system living cell simulation - require integrating applications and data that are developed by different teams of researchers frequently in different locations. The research team's are the only ones that have the expertise to maintain and improve the simulation code and/or the body of experimental data that drives the simulations. This results in an inherently distributed computing and data management environment.

Using in situ simulation to identify and resolve latent environmental threats to patient safety: case study involving operational changes in a labor and delivery ward.

PubMed

Hamman, William R; Beaudin-Seiler, Beth M; Beaubien, Jeffrey M; Gullickson, Amy M; Orizondo-Korotko, Krystyna; Gross, Amy C; Fuqua, Wayne; Lammers, Richard

2010-01-01

Since the publication of "To Err Is Human" in 1999, health care professionals have looked to high-reliability industries such as aviation for guidance on improving system safety. One of the most widely adopted aviation-derived approaches is simulation-based team training, also known as crew resource management training. In the health care domain, crew resource management training often takes place in custom-built simulation laboratories that are designed to replicate operating rooms or labor and delivery rooms. Unlike these traditional crew resource management training programs, "in situ simulation" occurs on actual patient care units, involves actual health care team members, and uses actual organization processes to train and assess team performance. During the past 24 months, our research team has conducted nearly 40 in situ simulations. In this article, we present the results from 1 such simulation: a patient who experienced a difficult labor that resulted in an emergency caesarian section and hysterectomy. During the simulation, a number of latent environmental threats to safety were identified. This article presents the latent threats and the steps that the hospital has taken to remedy them.

Coupling Agent-Based and Groundwater Modeling to Explore Demand Management Strategies for Shared Resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Al-Amin, S.

2015-12-01

Municipal water demands in growing population centers in the arid southwest US are typically met through increased groundwater withdrawals. Hydro-climatic uncertainties attributed to climate change and land use conversions may also alter demands and impact the replenishment of groundwater supply. Groundwater aquifers are not necessarily confined within municipal and management boundaries, and multiple diverse agencies may manage a shared resource in a decentralized approach, based on individual concerns and resources. The interactions among water managers, consumers, and the environment influence the performance of local management strategies and regional groundwater resources. This research couples an agent-based modeling (ABM) framework and a groundwater model to analyze the effects of different management approaches on shared groundwater resources. The ABM captures the dynamic interactions between household-level consumers and policy makers to simulate water demands under climate change and population growth uncertainties. The groundwater model is used to analyze the relative effects of management approaches on reducing demands and replenishing groundwater resources. The framework is applied for municipalities located in the Verde River Basin, Arizona that withdraw groundwater from the Verde Formation-Basin Fill-Carbonate aquifer system. Insights gained through this simulation study can be used to guide groundwater policy-making under changing hydro-climatic scenarios for a long-term planning horizon.

Simulating timber management in Lake States forests.

Treesearch

Gary J. Brand

1981-01-01

Describes in detail a management subsystem to simulate cutting in Lake States forest types. This subsystem is part of a Stand and Tree Evaluation and Modeling System (STEMS) contained in the Forest Resource Evaluation Program (FREP) for the Lake States. The management subsystem can be used to test the effect of alternate management strategies.

Improving Nursing Communication Skills in an Intensive Care Unit Using Simulation and Nursing Crew Resource Management Strategies: An Implementation Project.

PubMed

Turkelson, Carman; Aebersold, Michelle; Redman, Richard; Tschannen, Dana

Effective interprofessional communication is critical to patient safety. This pre-/postimplementation project used a multifaceted educational strategy with high-fidelity simulation to introduce evidence-based communication tools, adapted from Nursing Crew Resource Management, to intensive care unit nurses. Results indicated that participants were satisfied with the education, and their perceptions of interprofessional communication and knowledge improved. Teams (n = 16) that used the communication tools during simulation were more likely to identify the problem, initiate key interventions, and have positive outcomes.

Modelling Management Practices in Viticulture while Considering Resource Limitations: The Dhivine Model

PubMed Central

Martin-Clouaire, Roger; Rellier, Jean-Pierre; Paré, Nakié; Voltz, Marc; Biarnès, Anne

2016-01-01

Many farming-system studies have investigated the design and evaluation of crop-management practices with respect to economic performance and reduction in environmental impacts. In contrast, little research has been devoted to analysing these practices in terms of matching the recurrent context-dependent demand for resources (labour in particular) with those available on the farm. This paper presents Dhivine, a simulation model of operational management of grape production at the vineyard scale. Particular attention focuses on representing a flexible plan, which organises activities temporally, the resources available to the vineyard manager and the process of scheduling and executing the activities. The model relies on a generic production-system ontology used in several agricultural production domains. The types of investigations that the model supports are briefly illustrated. The enhanced realism of the production-management situations simulated makes it possible to examine and understand properties of resource-constrained work-organisation strategies and possibilities for improving them. PMID:26990089

The RCM: A Resource Management and Program Budgeting Approach for State and Local Educational Agencies.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chambers, Jay G.; Parrish, Thomas B.

The Resource Cost Model (RCM) is a resource management system that combines the technical advantages of sophisticated computer simulation software with the practical benefits of group decision making to provide detailed information about educational program costs. The first section of this document introduces the conceptual framework underlying…

Emergency medicine resident crisis resource management ability: a simulation-based longitudinal study

PubMed Central

Clarke, Samuel; Horeczko, Timothy; Carlisle, Matthew; Barton, Joseph D.; Ng, Vivienne; Al-Somali, Sameerah; Bair, Aaron E.

2014-01-01

Background Simulation has been identified as a means of assessing resident physicians’ mastery of technical skills, but there is a lack of evidence for its utility in longitudinal assessments of residents’ non-technical clinical abilities. We evaluated the growth of crisis resource management (CRM) skills in the simulation setting using a validated tool, the Ottawa Crisis Resource Management Global Rating Scale (Ottawa GRS). We hypothesized that the Ottawa GRS would reflect progressive growth of CRM ability throughout residency. Methods Forty-five emergency medicine residents were tracked with annual simulation assessments between 2006 and 2011. We used mixed-methods repeated-measures regression analyses to evaluate elements of the Ottawa GRS by level of training to predict performance growth throughout a 3-year residency. Results Ottawa GRS scores increased over time, and the domains of leadership, problem solving, and resource utilization, in particular, were predictive of overall performance. There was a significant gain in all Ottawa GRS components between postgraduate years 1 and 2, but no significant difference in GRS performance between years 2 and 3. Conclusions In summary, CRM skills are progressive abilities, and simulation is a useful modality for tracking their development. Modification of this tool may be needed to assess advanced learners’ gains in performance. PMID:25499769

How should we build a generic open-source water management simulator?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khadem, M.; Meier, P.; Rheinheimer, D. E.; Padula, S.; Matrosov, E.; Selby, P. D.; Knox, S.; Harou, J. J.

2014-12-01

Increasing water needs for agriculture, industry and cities mean effective and flexible water resource system management tools will remain in high demand. Currently many regions or countries use simulators that have been adapted over time to their unique system properties and water management rules and realities. Most regions operate with a preferred short-list of water management and planning decision support systems. Is there scope for a simulator, shared within the water management community, that could be adapted to different contexts, integrate community contributions, and connect to generic data and model management software? What role could open-source play in such a project? How could a genericuser-interface and data/model management software sustainably be attached to this model or suite of models? Finally, how could such a system effectively leverage existing model formulations, modeling technologies and software? These questions are addressed by the initial work presented here. We introduce a generic water resource simulation formulation that enables and integrates both rule-based and optimization driven technologies. We suggest how it could be linked to other sub-models allowing for detailed agent-based simulation of water management behaviours. An early formulation is applied as an example to the Thames water resource system in the UK. The model uses centralised optimisation to calculate allocations but allows for rule-based operations as well in an effort to represent observed behaviours and rules with fidelity. The model is linked through import/export commands to a generic network model platform named Hydra. Benefits and limitations of the approach are discussed and planned work and potential use cases are outlined.

Simulation modeling for the health care manager.

PubMed

Kennedy, Michael H

2009-01-01

This article addresses the use of simulation software to solve administrative problems faced by health care managers. Spreadsheet add-ins, process simulation software, and discrete event simulation software are available at a range of costs and complexity. All use the Monte Carlo method to realistically integrate probability distributions into models of the health care environment. Problems typically addressed by health care simulation modeling are facility planning, resource allocation, staffing, patient flow and wait time, routing and transportation, supply chain management, and process improvement.

A proposed simulation optimization model framework for emergency department problems in public hospital

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ibrahim, Ireen Munira; Liong, Choong-Yeun; Bakar, Sakhinah Abu; Ahmad, Norazura; Najmuddin, Ahmad Farid

2015-12-01

The Emergency Department (ED) is a very complex system with limited resources to support increase in demand. ED services are considered as good quality if they can meet the patient's expectation. Long waiting times and length of stay is always the main problem faced by the management. The management of ED should give greater emphasis on their capacity of resources in order to increase the quality of services, which conforms to patient satisfaction. This paper is a review of work in progress of a study being conducted in a government hospital in Selangor, Malaysia. This paper proposed a simulation optimization model framework which is used to study ED operations and problems as well as to find an optimal solution to the problems. The integration of simulation and optimization is hoped can assist management in decision making process regarding their resource capacity planning in order to improve current and future ED operations.

Transfer of learning and patient outcome in simulated crisis resource management: a systematic review.

PubMed

Boet, Sylvain; Bould, M Dylan; Fung, Lillia; Qosa, Haytham; Perrier, Laure; Tavares, Walter; Reeves, Scott; Tricco, Andrea C

2014-06-01

Simulation-based learning is increasingly used by healthcare professionals as a safe method to learn and practice non-technical skills, such as communication and leadership, required for effective crisis resource management (CRM). This systematic review was conducted to gain a better understanding of the impact of simulation-based CRM teaching on transfer of learning to the workplace and subsequent changes in patient outcomes. Studies on CRM, crisis management, crew resource management, teamwork, and simulation published up to September 2012 were searched in MEDLINE(®), EMBASE™, CINAHL, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, and ERIC. All studies that used simulation-based CRM teaching with outcomes measured at Kirkpatrick Level 3 (transfer of learning to the workplace) or 4 (patient outcome) were included. Studies measuring only learners' reactions or simple learning (Kirkpatrick Level 1 or 2, respectively) were excluded. Two authors independently reviewed all identified titles and abstracts for eligibility. Nine articles were identified as meeting the inclusion criteria. Four studies measured transfer of simulation-based CRM learning into the clinical setting (Kirkpatrick Level 3). In three of these studies, simulation-enhanced CRM training was found significantly more effective than no intervention or didactic teaching. Five studies measured patient outcomes (Kirkpatrick Level 4). Only one of these studies found that simulation-based CRM training made a clearly significant impact on patient mortality. Based on a small number of studies, this systematic review found that CRM skills learned at the simulation centre are transferred to clinical settings, and the acquired CRM skills may translate to improved patient outcomes, including a decrease in mortality.

Future directions for simulation of recreation use

Treesearch

David N. Cole

2005-01-01

As the case studies in Chapter 4 illustrate, simulation modeling can be a valuable tool for recreation planning and management. Although simulation modeling is already well developed for business applications, its adaptation to recreation management is less developed. Relatively few resources have been devoted to realizing its potential. Further progress is needed in...

NASA Space Engineering Research Center for Utilization of Local Planetary Resources

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ramohalli, Kumar; Lewis, John S.

1989-01-01

Progress toward the goal of exploiting extraterrestrial resources for space missions is documented. Some areas of research included are as follows: Propellant and propulsion optimization; Automation of propellant processing with quantitative simulation; Ore reduction through chlorination and free radical production; Characterization of lunar ilmenite and its simulants; Carbothermal reduction of ilmenite with special reference to microgravity chemical reactor design; Gaseous carbonyl extraction and purification of ferrous metals; Overall energy management; and Information management for space processing.

Water resources management: Hydrologic characterization through hydrograph simulation may bias streamflow statistics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farmer, W. H.; Kiang, J. E.

2017-12-01

The development, deployment and maintenance of water resources management infrastructure and practices rely on hydrologic characterization, which requires an understanding of local hydrology. With regards to streamflow, this understanding is typically quantified with statistics derived from long-term streamgage records. However, a fundamental problem is how to characterize local hydrology without the luxury of streamgage records, a problem that complicates water resources management at ungaged locations and for long-term future projections. This problem has typically been addressed through the development of point estimators, such as regression equations, to estimate particular statistics. Physically-based precipitation-runoff models, which are capable of producing simulated hydrographs, offer an alternative to point estimators. The advantage of simulated hydrographs is that they can be used to compute any number of streamflow statistics from a single source (the simulated hydrograph) rather than relying on a diverse set of point estimators. However, the use of simulated hydrographs introduces a degree of model uncertainty that is propagated through to estimated streamflow statistics and may have drastic effects on management decisions. We compare the accuracy and precision of streamflow statistics (e.g. the mean annual streamflow, the annual maximum streamflow exceeded in 10% of years, and the minimum seven-day average streamflow exceeded in 90% of years, among others) derived from point estimators (e.g. regressions, kriging, machine learning) to that of statistics derived from simulated hydrographs across the continental United States. Initial results suggest that the error introduced through hydrograph simulation may substantially bias the resulting hydrologic characterization.

Water, Energy, and Food Nexus: Modeling of Inter-Basin Resources Trading

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

KIm, T. W.; Kang, D.; Wicaksono, A.; Jeong, G.; Jang, B. J.; Ahn, J.

2016-12-01

The water, energy, and food (WEF) nexus is an emerging issue in the concern of fulfilling the human requirements with a lack of available resources. The WEF nexus concept arises to develop a sustainable resources planning and management. In the concept, the three valuable resources (i.e. water, energy, and food) are inevitably interconnected thus it becomes a challenge for researchers to understand the complicated interdependency. A few studies have been committed for interpreting and implementing the WEF nexus using a computer based simulation model. Some of them mentioned that a trade-off is one alternative solution that can be taken to secure the available resources. Taking a concept of inter-basin water transfer, this study attempts to introduce an idea to develop a WEF nexus model for inter-basin resources trading simulation. Using the trading option among regions (e.g., cities, basins, or even countries), the model provides an opportunity to increase overall resources availability without draining local resources. The proposed model adopted the calculation process of an amount of water, energy, and food from a nation-wide model, with additional input and analysis process to simulate the resources trading between regions. The proposed model is applied for a hypothetic test area in South Korea for demonstration purposes. It is anticipated that the developed model can be a decision tool for efficient resources allocation for sustainable resources management. Acknowledgements This study was supported by a grant (14AWMP-B082564-01) from Advanced Water Management Research Program funded by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport of the Korean government.

The SIMRAND methodology - Simulation of Research and Development Projects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miles, R. F., Jr.

1984-01-01

In research and development projects, a commonly occurring management decision is concerned with the optimum allocation of resources to achieve the project goals. Because of resource constraints, management has to make a decision regarding the set of proposed systems or tasks which should be undertaken. SIMRAND (Simulation of Research and Development Projects) is a methodology which was developed for aiding management in this decision. Attention is given to a problem description, aspects of model formulation, the reduction phase of the model solution, the simulation phase, and the evaluation phase. The implementation of the considered approach is illustrated with the aid of an example which involves a simplified network of the type used to determine the price of silicon solar cells.

Water-resources optimization model for Santa Barbara, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nishikawa, Tracy

1998-01-01

A simulation-optimization model has been developed for the optimal management of the city of Santa Barbara's water resources during a drought. The model, which links groundwater simulation with linear programming, has a planning horizon of 5 years. The objective is to minimize the cost of water supply subject to: water demand constraints, hydraulic head constraints to control seawater intrusion, and water capacity constraints. The decision variables are montly water deliveries from surface water and groundwater. The state variables are hydraulic heads. The drought of 1947-51 is the city's worst drought on record, and simulated surface-water supplies for this period were used as a basis for testing optimal management of current water resources under drought conditions. The simulation-optimization model was applied using three reservoir operation rules. In addition, the model's sensitivity to demand, carry over [the storage of water in one year for use in the later year(s)], head constraints, and capacity constraints was tested.

Application of large-scale, multi-resolution watershed modeling framework using the Hydrologic and Water Quality System (HAWQS)

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

In recent years, large-scale watershed modeling has been implemented broadly in the field of water resources planning and management. Complex hydrological, sediment, and nutrient processes can be simulated by sophisticated watershed simulation models for important issues such as water resources all...

Intelligent Resource Management for Local Area Networks: Approach and Evolution

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Meike, Roger

1988-01-01

The Data Management System network is a complex and important part of manned space platforms. Its efficient operation is vital to crew, subsystems and experiments. AI is being considered to aid in the initial design of the network and to augment the management of its operation. The Intelligent Resource Management for Local Area Networks (IRMA-LAN) project is concerned with the application of AI techniques to network configuration and management. A network simulation was constructed employing real time process scheduling for realistic loads, and utilizing the IEEE 802.4 token passing scheme. This simulation is an integral part of the construction of the IRMA-LAN system. From it, a causal model is being constructed for use in prediction and deep reasoning about the system configuration. An AI network design advisor is being added to help in the design of an efficient network. The AI portion of the system is planned to evolve into a dynamic network management aid. The approach, the integrated simulation, project evolution, and some initial results are described.

Usefulness of ERTS-1 satellite imagery as a data-gathering tool by resource managers in the Bureau of Land Management. [Arizona, California, Oregon, and Alaska

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bentley, R. G.

1974-01-01

ERTS-1 satellite imagery can be an effective data-gathering tool for resource managers. Techniques are developed which allow managers to visually analyze simulated color infrared composite images to map perennial and ephemeral (annual) plant communities. Tentative results indicate that ephemeral plant growth and development and potential to produce forage can be monitored.

Cockpit resources management and the theory of the situation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bolman, L.

1984-01-01

The cockpit resource management (CRM) and hypothetical cockpit situations are discussed. Four different conditions which influence pilot action are outlined: (1) wrong assumptions about a situation; (2) stress and workload; (3) frustration and delays to cause risk taking; and (4) ambigious incomplete or contradicting information. Human factors and behavior, and pilot communication and management in the simulator are outlined.

Multiple methods for multiple futures: Integrating qualitative scenario planning and quantitative simulation modeling for natural resource decision making

USGS Publications Warehouse

Symstad, Amy J.; Fisichelli, Nicholas A.; Miller, Brian W.; Rowland, Erika; Schuurman, Gregor W.

2017-01-01

Scenario planning helps managers incorporate climate change into their natural resource decision making through a structured “what-if” process of identifying key uncertainties and potential impacts and responses. Although qualitative scenarios, in which ecosystem responses to climate change are derived via expert opinion, often suffice for managers to begin addressing climate change in their planning, this approach may face limits in resolving the responses of complex systems to altered climate conditions. In addition, this approach may fall short of the scientific credibility managers often require to take actions that differ from current practice. Quantitative simulation modeling of ecosystem response to climate conditions and management actions can provide this credibility, but its utility is limited unless the modeling addresses the most impactful and management-relevant uncertainties and incorporates realistic management actions. We use a case study to compare and contrast management implications derived from qualitative scenario narratives and from scenarios supported by quantitative simulations. We then describe an analytical framework that refines the case study’s integrated approach in order to improve applicability of results to management decisions. The case study illustrates the value of an integrated approach for identifying counterintuitive system dynamics, refining understanding of complex relationships, clarifying the magnitude and timing of changes, identifying and checking the validity of assumptions about resource responses to climate, and refining management directions. Our proposed analytical framework retains qualitative scenario planning as a core element because its participatory approach builds understanding for both managers and scientists, lays the groundwork to focus quantitative simulations on key system dynamics, and clarifies the challenges that subsequent decision making must address.

State-and-transition models: Conceptual versus simulation perspectives, usefulness and breadth of use, and land management applications

USGS Publications Warehouse

Provencher, Louis; Frid, Leonardo; Czembor, Christina; Morisette, Jeffrey T.

2016-01-01

State-and-Transition Simulation Modeling (STSM) is a quantitative analysis method that can consolidate a wide array of resource management issues under a “what-if” scenario exercise. STSM can be seen as an ensemble of models, such as climate models, ecological models, and economic models that incorporate human dimensions and management options. This chapter presents STSM as a tool to help synthesize information on social–ecological systems and to investigate some of the management issues associated with exotic annual Bromus species, which have been described elsewhere in this book. Definitions, terminology, and perspectives on conceptual and computer-simulated stochastic state-and-transition models are given first, followed by a brief review of past STSM studies relevant to the management of Bromus species. A detailed case study illustrates the usefulness of STSM for land management. As a whole, this chapter is intended to demonstrate how STSM can help both managers and scientists: (a) determine efficient resource allocation for monitoring nonnative grasses; (b) evaluate sources of uncertainty in model simulation results involving expert opinion, and their consequences for management decisions; and (c) provide insight into the consequences of predicted local climate change effects on ecological systems invaded by exotic annual Bromus species.

Accepting uncertainty, assessing risk: decision quality in managing wildfire, forest resource values, and new technology

Treesearch

Jeffrey G. Borchers

2005-01-01

The risks, uncertainties, and social conflicts surrounding uncharacteristic wildfire and forest resource values have defied conventional approaches to planning and decision-making. Paradoxically, the adoption of technological innovations such as risk assessment, decision analysis, and landscape simulation models by land management organizations has been limited. The...

14 CFR 121.907 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... definitions apply to this subpart: Crew Resource Management (CRM) means the effective use of all the resources... technical and CRM skills. Line Operational Simulation (LOS) means a training or evaluation session, as...

[Teaching non-technical skills for critical incidents: Crisis resource management training for medical students].

PubMed

Krüger, A; Gillmann, B; Hardt, C; Döring, R; Beckers, S K; Rossaint, R

2009-06-01

Physicians have to demonstrate non-technical skills, such as communication and team leading skills, while coping with critical incidents. These skills are not taught during medical education. A crisis resource management (CRM) training was established for 4th to 6th year medical students using a full-scale simulator mannikin (Emergency Care Simulator, ECS, METI). The learning objectives of the course were defined according to the key points of Gaba's CRM concept. The training consisted of theoretical and practical parts (3 simulation scenarios with debriefing). Students' self-assessment before and after the training provided the data for evaluation of the training outcome. A total of 65 students took part in the training. The course was well received in terms of overall course quality, debriefings and didactic presentation, the mean overall mark being 1.4 (1: best, 6: worst). After the course students felt significantly more confident when facing incidents in clinical practice. The main learning objectives were achieved. The effectiveness of applying the widely used ECS full-scale simulator in interdisciplinary teaching has been demonstrated. The training exposes students to crisis resource management issues and motivates them to develop non-technical skills.

Hydro-environmental management of groundwater resources: A fuzzy-based multi-objective compromise approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alizadeh, Mohammad Reza; Nikoo, Mohammad Reza; Rakhshandehroo, Gholam Reza

2017-08-01

Sustainable management of water resources necessitates close attention to social, economic and environmental aspects such as water quality and quantity concerns and potential conflicts. This study presents a new fuzzy-based multi-objective compromise methodology to determine the socio-optimal and sustainable policies for hydro-environmental management of groundwater resources, which simultaneously considers the conflicts and negotiation of involved stakeholders, uncertainties in decision makers' preferences, existing uncertainties in the groundwater parameters and groundwater quality and quantity issues. The fuzzy multi-objective simulation-optimization model is developed based on qualitative and quantitative groundwater simulation model (MODFLOW and MT3D), multi-objective optimization model (NSGA-II), Monte Carlo analysis and Fuzzy Transformation Method (FTM). Best compromise solutions (best management policies) on trade-off curves are determined using four different Fuzzy Social Choice (FSC) methods. Finally, a unanimity fallback bargaining method is utilized to suggest the most preferred FSC method. Kavar-Maharloo aquifer system in Fars, Iran, as a typical multi-stakeholder multi-objective real-world problem is considered to verify the proposed methodology. Results showed an effective performance of the framework for determining the most sustainable allocation policy in groundwater resource management.

Assessing forest vegetation and fire simulation model performance after the Cold Springs wildfire, Washington USA

Treesearch

Susan Hummel; Maureen Kennedy; E. Ashley Steel

2012-01-01

Given that resource managers rely on computer simulation models when it is difficult or expensive to obtain vital information directly, it is important to evaluate how well a particular model satisfies applications for which it is designed. The Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) is used widely for forest management in the US, and its scope and complexity continue to...

A hybrid simulation approach for integrating safety behavior into construction planning: An earthmoving case study.

PubMed

Goh, Yang Miang; Askar Ali, Mohamed Jawad

2016-08-01

One of the key challenges in improving construction safety and health is the management of safety behavior. From a system point of view, workers work unsafely due to system level issues such as poor safety culture, excessive production pressure, inadequate allocation of resources and time and lack of training. These systemic issues should be eradicated or minimized during planning. However, there is a lack of detailed planning tools to help managers assess the impact of their upstream decisions on worker safety behavior. Even though simulation had been used in construction planning, the review conducted in this study showed that construction safety management research had not been exploiting the potential of simulation techniques. Thus, a hybrid simulation framework is proposed to facilitate integration of safety management considerations into construction activity simulation. The hybrid framework consists of discrete event simulation (DES) as the core, but heterogeneous, interactive and intelligent (able to make decisions) agents replace traditional entities and resources. In addition, some of the cognitive processes and physiological aspects of agents are captured using system dynamics (SD) approach. The combination of DES, agent-based simulation (ABS) and SD allows a more "natural" representation of the complex dynamics in construction activities. The proposed hybrid framework was demonstrated using a hypothetical case study. In addition, due to the lack of application of factorial experiment approach in safety management simulation, the case study demonstrated sensitivity analysis and factorial experiment to guide future research. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Simulation of Aircraft Deployment Support

DTIC Science & Technology

2003-03-01

Dassault Aviation Military Customer Support Division 78, Quai Marcel Dassault Cedex 300 92552 St Cloud Cedex France Tel.: 33 147 1163 23 Fax.: 33 147...Deployment Support" (SADS) was developed by the Military Customer Support Division of Dassault Aviation to perform simulations for logistics deployment and...and support Chain Management for the management of the logistics resources (replenishment of consumables and repair of parts, inventory management

Computer software tool REALM for sustainable water allocation and management.

PubMed

Perera, B J C; James, B; Kularathna, M D U

2005-12-01

REALM (REsource ALlocation Model) is a generalised computer simulation package that models harvesting and bulk distribution of water resources within a water supply system. It is a modeling tool, which can be applied to develop specific water allocation models. Like other water resource simulation software tools, REALM uses mass-balance accounting at nodes, while the movement of water within carriers is subject to capacity constraints. It uses a fast network linear programming algorithm to optimise the water allocation within the network during each simulation time step, in accordance with user-defined operating rules. This paper describes the main features of REALM and provides potential users with an appreciation of its capabilities. In particular, it describes two case studies covering major urban and rural water supply systems. These case studies illustrate REALM's capabilities in the use of stochastically generated data in water supply planning and management, modelling of environmental flows, and assessing security of supply issues.

Chantey Castings: A Hands-On Simulation to Teach Constraint Management and Demand-Driven Supply Chain Approaches

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Grandzol, Christian J.; Grandzol, John R.

2018-01-01

Supply chain design and constraint management are widely-adopted techniques in industry, necessitating that operations and supply chain educators teach these topics in ways that enhance student learning and retention, optimize resource utilization (especially time), and maximize student interest. The Chantey Castings Simulation provides a platform…

Tools for Economic Analysis of Patient Management Interventions in Heart Failure Cost-Effectiveness Model: A Web-based program designed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of disease management programs in heart failure.

PubMed

Reed, Shelby D; Neilson, Matthew P; Gardner, Matthew; Li, Yanhong; Briggs, Andrew H; Polsky, Daniel E; Graham, Felicia L; Bowers, Margaret T; Paul, Sara C; Granger, Bradi B; Schulman, Kevin A; Whellan, David J; Riegel, Barbara; Levy, Wayne C

2015-11-01

Heart failure disease management programs can influence medical resource use and quality-adjusted survival. Because projecting long-term costs and survival is challenging, a consistent and valid approach to extrapolating short-term outcomes would be valuable. We developed the Tools for Economic Analysis of Patient Management Interventions in Heart Failure Cost-Effectiveness Model, a Web-based simulation tool designed to integrate data on demographic, clinical, and laboratory characteristics; use of evidence-based medications; and costs to generate predicted outcomes. Survival projections are based on a modified Seattle Heart Failure Model. Projections of resource use and quality of life are modeled using relationships with time-varying Seattle Heart Failure Model scores. The model can be used to evaluate parallel-group and single-cohort study designs and hypothetical programs. Simulations consist of 10,000 pairs of virtual cohorts used to generate estimates of resource use, costs, survival, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios from user inputs. The model demonstrated acceptable internal and external validity in replicating resource use, costs, and survival estimates from 3 clinical trials. Simulations to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of heart failure disease management programs across 3 scenarios demonstrate how the model can be used to design a program in which short-term improvements in functioning and use of evidence-based treatments are sufficient to demonstrate good long-term value to the health care system. The Tools for Economic Analysis of Patient Management Interventions in Heart Failure Cost-Effectiveness Model provides researchers and providers with a tool for conducting long-term cost-effectiveness analyses of disease management programs in heart failure. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

MODFLOW-OWHM v2: New Features and Improvements; The Next Generation of MODFLOW Conjunctive Use Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boyce, S. E.; Hanson, R. T.; Henson, W.; Ferguson, I. M.; Schmid, W.; Reimann, T.; Mehl, S.

2017-12-01

The One-Water Hydrologic Flow Model (One-Water) is a MODFLOW-based integrated hydrologic flow model designed for the analysis of a broad range of conjunctive-use and sustainability issues. It was motivated by the need to merge the multiple variants of MODFLOW-2005 to yield an enhanced unified version capable of simulating conjunctive use and management, sustainability, climate-related issues, and managing the relationships between groundwater, surface water, and land usage. One-Water links the movement and use of groundwater, surface water, and imported water for consumption by agriculture and natural vegetation on the landscape, and for potable and other uses within a supply-and-demand framework. The first version, released in 2014, was selected by The World Bank Water Resource Software Review in 2016 as one of three recommended simulation programs for conjunctive use and management modeling. One-Water is also being used as the primary simulation engine for FREEWAT, a European Union sponsored open-source water management software environment. The next version of One-Water will include a new surface-water operations module that simulates dynamic reservoir operations and a conduit-flow process for karst aquifers and leaky pipe networks. It will also include enhancements to local grid refinement, and additional features to facilitate easier model updates, faster execution, better error messages, and more integration/cross communication between the traditional MODFLOW packages. The new structure also helps facilitate the new integration into a "Self-Updating" structure of data streams, simulation, and analysis needed for modern water resource management. By retaining and tracking the water within the hydrosphere, One-Water accounts for "all of the water everywhere and all of the time." This philosophy provides more confidence in the water accounting to the scientific community and provides the public a foundation needed to address wider classes of problems. Ultimately, more complex questions are being asked about water resources, requiring tools that more completely answer conjunctive-use management questions.

Nexus: A modular workflow management system for quantum simulation codes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krogel, Jaron T.

2016-01-01

The management of simulation workflows represents a significant task for the individual computational researcher. Automation of the required tasks involved in simulation work can decrease the overall time to solution and reduce sources of human error. A new simulation workflow management system, Nexus, is presented to address these issues. Nexus is capable of automated job management on workstations and resources at several major supercomputing centers. Its modular design allows many quantum simulation codes to be supported within the same framework. Current support includes quantum Monte Carlo calculations with QMCPACK, density functional theory calculations with Quantum Espresso or VASP, and quantum chemical calculations with GAMESS. Users can compose workflows through a transparent, text-based interface, resembling the input file of a typical simulation code. A usage example is provided to illustrate the process.

A dynamic simulation model for analyzing the importance of forest resources in Alaska.

Treesearch

Wilbur R. Maki; Douglas Olson; Con H. Schallau

1985-01-01

A dynamic simulation model has been adapted for use in Alaska. It provides a flexible tool for examining the economic consequences of alternative forest resource management policies. The model could be adapted for use elsewhere if an interindustry transaction table is available or can be developed. To demonstrate the model's usefulness, the contribution of the...

An expert system for simulating electric loads aboard Space Station Freedom

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kukich, George; Dolce, James L.

1990-01-01

Space Station Freedom will provide an infrastructure for space experimentation. This environment will feature regulated access to any resources required by an experiment. Automated systems are being developed to manage the electric power so that researchers can have the flexibility to modify their experiment plan for contingencies or for new opportunities. To define these flexible power management characteristics for Space Station Freedom, a simulation is required that captures the dynamic nature of space experimentation; namely, an investigator is allowed to restructure his experiment and to modify its execution. This changes the energy demands for the investigator's range of options. An expert system competent in the domain of cryogenic fluid management experimentation was developed. It will be used to help design and test automated power scheduling software for Freedom's electric power system. The expert system allows experiment planning and experiment simulation. The former evaluates experimental alternatives and offers advice on the details of the experiment's design. The latter provides a real-time simulation of the experiment replete with appropriate resource consumption.

Simulation of Tasks Distribution in Horizontally Scalable Management System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kustov, D.; Sherstneva, A.; Botygin, I.

2016-08-01

This paper presents an imitational model of the task distribution system for the components of territorially-distributed automated management system with a dynamically changing topology. Each resource of the distributed automated management system is represented with an agent, which allows to set behavior of every resource in the best possible way and ensure their interaction. The agent work load imitation was done via service query imitation formed in a system dynamics style using a stream diagram. The query generation took place in the abstract-represented center - afterwards, they were sent to the drive to be distributed to management system resources according to a ranking table.

Agent-Based Simulations for Project Management

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

White, J. Chris; Sholtes, Robert M.

2011-01-01

Currently, the most common approach used in project planning tools is the Critical Path Method (CPM). While this method was a great improvement over the basic Gantt chart technique being used at the time, it now suffers from three primary flaws: (1) task duration is an input, (2) productivity impacts are not considered , and (3) management corrective actions are not included. Today, computers have exceptional computational power to handle complex simulations of task e)(eculion and project management activities (e.g ., dynamically changing the number of resources assigned to a task when it is behind schedule). Through research under a Department of Defense contract, the author and the ViaSim team have developed a project simulation tool that enables more realistic cost and schedule estimates by using a resource-based model that literally turns the current duration-based CPM approach "on its head." The approach represents a fundamental paradigm shift in estimating projects, managing schedules, and reducing risk through innovative predictive techniques.

Resource Tracking Model Updates and Trade Studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chambliss, Joe; Stambaugh, Imelda; Moore, Michael

2016-01-01

The Resource Tracking Model has been updated to capture system manager and project manager inputs. Both the Trick/General Use Nodal Network Solver Resource Tracking Model (RTM) simulator and the RTM mass balance spreadsheet have been revised to address inputs from system managers and to refine the way mass balance is illustrated. The revisions to the RTM included the addition of a Plasma Pyrolysis Assembly (PPA) to recover hydrogen from Sabatier Reactor methane, which was vented in the prior version of the RTM. The effect of the PPA on the overall balance of resources in an exploration vehicle is illustrated in the increased recycle of vehicle oxygen. Case studies have been run to show the relative effect of performance changes on vehicle resources.

Resource Contention Management in Parallel Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

1989-04-01

technical competence include communications, command and control, battle management, information processing, surveillance sensors, intelligence data ...two-simulation approach since they require only a single simulation run. More importantly, since they involve only observed data , they may also be...we use the original, unobservable RAC of Section 2 and handle un- observable transitions by generating artifcial events, when required, using a random

Integrating fire management analysis into land management planning

Treesearch

Thomas J. Mills

1983-01-01

The analysis of alternative fire management programs should be integrated into the land and resource management planning process, but a single fire management analysis model cannot meet all planning needs. Therefore, a set of simulation models that are analytically separate from integrated land management planning models are required. The design of four levels of fire...

Disaster Response Modeling Through Discrete-Event Simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Jeffrey; Gilmer, Graham

2012-01-01

Organizations today are required to plan against a rapidly changing, high-cost environment. This is especially true for first responders to disasters and other incidents, where critical decisions must be made in a timely manner to save lives and resources. Discrete-event simulations enable organizations to make better decisions by visualizing complex processes and the impact of proposed changes before they are implemented. A discrete-event simulation using Simio software has been developed to effectively analyze and quantify the imagery capabilities of domestic aviation resources conducting relief missions. This approach has helped synthesize large amounts of data to better visualize process flows, manage resources, and pinpoint capability gaps and shortfalls in disaster response scenarios. Simulation outputs and results have supported decision makers in the understanding of high risk locations, key resource placement, and the effectiveness of proposed improvements.

TEAM-HF Cost-Effectiveness Model: A Web-Based Program Designed to Evaluate the Cost-Effectiveness of Disease Management Programs in Heart Failure

PubMed Central

Reed, Shelby D.; Neilson, Matthew P.; Gardner, Matthew; Li, Yanhong; Briggs, Andrew H.; Polsky, Daniel E.; Graham, Felicia L.; Bowers, Margaret T.; Paul, Sara C.; Granger, Bradi B.; Schulman, Kevin A.; Whellan, David J.; Riegel, Barbara; Levy, Wayne C.

2015-01-01

Background Heart failure disease management programs can influence medical resource use and quality-adjusted survival. Because projecting long-term costs and survival is challenging, a consistent and valid approach to extrapolating short-term outcomes would be valuable. Methods We developed the Tools for Economic Analysis of Patient Management Interventions in Heart Failure (TEAM-HF) Cost-Effectiveness Model, a Web-based simulation tool designed to integrate data on demographic, clinical, and laboratory characteristics, use of evidence-based medications, and costs to generate predicted outcomes. Survival projections are based on a modified Seattle Heart Failure Model (SHFM). Projections of resource use and quality of life are modeled using relationships with time-varying SHFM scores. The model can be used to evaluate parallel-group and single-cohort designs and hypothetical programs. Simulations consist of 10,000 pairs of virtual cohorts used to generate estimates of resource use, costs, survival, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios from user inputs. Results The model demonstrated acceptable internal and external validity in replicating resource use, costs, and survival estimates from 3 clinical trials. Simulations to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of heart failure disease management programs across 3 scenarios demonstrate how the model can be used to design a program in which short-term improvements in functioning and use of evidence-based treatments are sufficient to demonstrate good long-term value to the health care system. Conclusion The TEAM-HF Cost-Effectiveness Model provides researchers and providers with a tool for conducting long-term cost-effectiveness analyses of disease management programs in heart failure. PMID:26542504

Current Challenges in Geothermal Reservoir Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Driesner, T.

2016-12-01

Geothermal reservoir simulation has long been introduced as a valuable tool for geothermal reservoir management and research. Yet, the current generation of simulation tools faces a number of severe challenges, in particular in the application for novel types of geothermal resources such as supercritical reservoirs or hydraulic stimulation. This contribution reviews a number of key problems: Representing the magmatic heat source of high enthalpy resources in simulations. Current practice is representing the deeper parts of a high enthalpy reservoir by a heat flux or temperature boundary condition. While this is sufficient for many reservoir management purposes it precludes exploring the chances of very high enthalpy resources in the deepest parts of such systems as well as the development of reliable conceptual models. Recent 2D simulations with the CSMP++ simulation platform demonstrate the potential of explicitly including the heat source, namely for understanding supercritical resources. Geometrically realistic incorporation of discrete fracture networks in simulation. A growing number of simulation tools can, in principle, handle flow and heat transport in discrete fracture networks. However, solving the governing equations and representing the physical properties are often biased by introducing strongly simplifying assumptions. Including proper fracture mechanics in complex fracture network simulations remains an open challenge. Improvements of the simulating chemical fluid-rock interaction in geothermal reservoirs. Major improvements have been made towards more stable and faster numerical solvers for multicomponent chemical fluid rock interaction. However, the underlying thermodynamic models and databases are unable to correctly address a number of important regions in temperature-pressure-composition parameter space. Namely, there is currently no thermodynamic formalism to describe relevant chemical reactions in supercritical reservoirs. Overcoming this unsatisfactory situation requires fundamental research in high temperature physical chemistry rather than further numerical development.

Resource waves: phenological diversity enhances foraging opportunities for mobile consumers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Armstrong, Jonathan B.; Takimoto, Gaku; Schindler, Daniel E.; Hayes, Matthew M.; Kauffman, Matthew J.

2016-01-01

Time can be a limiting constraint for consumers, particularly when resource phenology mediates foraging opportunity. Though a large body of research has explored how resource phenology influences trophic interactions, this work has focused on the topics of trophic mismatch or predator swamping, which typically occur over short periods, at small spatial extents or coarse resolutions. In contrast many consumers integrate across landscape heterogeneity in resource phenology, moving to track ephemeral food sources that propagate across space as resource waves. Here we provide a conceptual framework to advance the study of phenological diversity and resource waves. We define resource waves, review evidence of their importance in recent case studies, and demonstrate their broader ecological significance with a simulation model. We found that consumers ranging from fig wasps (Chalcidoidea) to grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) exploit resource waves, integrating across phenological diversity to make resource aggregates available for much longer than their component parts. In model simulations, phenological diversity was often more important to consumer energy gain than resource abundance per se. Current ecosystem-based management assumes that species abundance mediates the strength of trophic interactions. Our results challenge this assumption and highlight new opportunities for conservation and management. Resource waves are an emergent property of consumer–resource interactions and are broadly significant in ecology and conservation.

Water resources planning based on complex system dynamics: A case study of Tianjin city

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, X. H.; Zhang, H. W.; Chen, B.; Chen, G. Q.; Zhao, X. H.

2008-12-01

A complex system dynamic (SD) model focusing on water resources, termed as TianjinSD, is developed for the integrated and scientific management of the water resources of Tianjin, which contains information feedback that governs interactions in the system and is capable of synthesizing component-level knowledge into system behavior simulation at an integrated level, thus presenting reasonable predictive results for policy-making on water resources allocation and management. As for the Tianjin city, interactions among 96 components for 12 years are explored and four planning alternatives are chosen, one of which is based on the conventional mode assuming that the existing pattern of human activities will be prevailed, while the others are alternative planning designs based on the interaction of local authorities and planning researchers. Optimal mode is therefore obtained according to different scenarios when compared the simulation results for evaluation of different decisions and dynamic consequences.

Nexus: a modular workflow management system for quantum simulation codes

DOE PAGES

Krogel, Jaron T.

2015-08-24

The management of simulation workflows is a significant task for the individual computational researcher. Automation of the required tasks involved in simulation work can decrease the overall time to solution and reduce sources of human error. A new simulation workflow management system, Nexus, is presented to address these issues. Nexus is capable of automated job management on workstations and resources at several major supercomputing centers. Its modular design allows many quantum simulation codes to be supported within the same framework. Current support includes quantum Monte Carlo calculations with QMCPACK, density functional theory calculations with Quantum Espresso or VASP, and quantummore » chemical calculations with GAMESS. Users can compose workflows through a transparent, text-based interface, resembling the input file of a typical simulation code. A usage example is provided to illustrate the process.« less

Realistic radio communications in pilot simulator training

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2000-12-01

This report summarizes the first-year efforts of assessing the requirement and feasibility of simulating radio communication automatically. A review of the training and crew resource/task management literature showed both practical and theoretical su...

Ground-water/surface-water responses to global climate simulations, Santa Clara-Calleguas basin, Ventura County, California, 1950-93

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hanson, Randall T.; Dettinger, Michael D.

2005-01-01

Climate variations can play an important, if not always crucial, role in successful conjunctive management of ground water and surface water resources. This will require accurate accounting of the links between variations in climate, recharge, and withdrawal from the resource systems, accurate projection or predictions of the climate variations, and accurate simulation of the responses of the resource systems. To assess linkages and predictability of climate influences on conjunctive management, global climate model (GCM) simulated precipitation rates were used to estimate inflows and outflows from a regional ground water model (RGWM) of the coastal aquifers of the Santa Clara-Calleguas Basin at Ventura, California, for 1950 to 1993. Interannual to interdecadal time scales of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) climate variations are imparted to simulated precipitation variations in the Southern California area and are realistically imparted to the simulated ground water level variations through the climate-driven recharge (and discharge) variations. For example, the simulated average ground water level response at a key observation well in the basin to ENSO variations of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures is 1.2 m/°C, compared to 0.9 m/°C in observations. This close agreement shows that the GCM-RGWM combination can translate global scale climate variations into realistic local ground water responses. Probability distributions of simulated ground water level excursions above a local water level threshold for potential seawater intrusion compare well to the corresponding distributions from observations and historical RGWM simulations, demonstrating the combination's potential usefulness for water management and planning. Thus the GCM-RGWM combination could be used for planning purposes and — when the GCM forecast skills are adequate — for near term predictions.

Ground water/surface water responses to global climate simulations, Santa Clara-Calleguas Basin, Ventura, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hanson, R.T.; Dettinger, M.D.

2005-01-01

Climate variations can play an important, if not always crucial, role in successful conjunctive management of ground water and surface water resources. This will require accurate accounting of the links between variations in climate, recharge, and withdrawal from the resource systems, accurate projection or predictions of the climate variations, and accurate simulation of the responses of the resource systems. To assess linkages and predictability of climate influences on conjunctive management, global climate model (GCM) simulated precipitation rates were used to estimate inflows and outflows from a regional ground water model (RGWM) of the coastal aquifers of the Santa ClaraCalleguas Basin at Ventura, California, for 1950 to 1993. Interannual to interdecadal time scales of the El Nin??o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) climate variations are imparted to simulated precipitation variations in the Southern California area and are realistically imparted to the simulated ground water level variations through the climate-driven recharge (and discharge) variations. For example, the simulated average ground water level response at a key observation well in the basin to ENSO variations of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures is 1.2 m/??C, compared to 0.9 m/??C in observations. This close agreement shows that the GCM-RGWM combination can translate global scale climate variations into realistic local ground water responses. Probability distributions of simulated ground water level excursions above a local water level threshold for potential seawater intrusion compare well to the corresponding distributions from observations and historical RGWM simulations, demonstrating the combination's potential usefulness for water management and planning. Thus the GCM-RGWM combination could be used for planning purposes and - when the GCM forecast skills are adequate - for near term predictions.

Simulated effects of forest management alternatives on landscape structure and habitat suitability in the Midwestern United States

Treesearch

Stephen R. Shifley; Frank R., III Thompson; William D. Dijak; Michael A. Larson; Joshua J. Millspaugh

2006-01-01

Understanding the cumulative effects and resource trade-offs associated with forest management requires the ability to predict, analyze, and communicate information about how forest landscapes (1000s to > 100,000 ha in extent) respond to silviculture and other disturbances. We applied a spatially explicit landscape simulation model, LANDIS, and compared the outcomes...

A pharmacy business management simulation exercise as a practical application of business management material and principles.

PubMed

Rollins, Brent L; Gunturi, Rahul; Sullivan, Donald

2014-04-17

To implement a pharmacy business management simulation exercise as a practical application of business management material and principles and assess students' perceived value. As part of a pharmacy management and administration course, students made various calculations and management decisions in the global categories of hours of operation, inventory, pricing, and personnel. The students entered the data into simulation software and a realistic community pharmacy marketplace was modeled. Course topics included accounting, economics, finance, human resources, management, marketing, and leadership. An 18-item posttest survey was administered. Students' slightly to moderately agreed the pharmacy simulation program enhanced their knowledge and understanding, particularly of inventory management, cash flow statements, balance sheets, and income statements. Overall attitudes toward the pharmacy simulation program were also slightly positive and students also slightly agreed the pharmacy simulation program enhanced their learning of pharmacy business management. Inventory management was the only area in which students felt they had at least "some" exposure to the assessed business management topics during IPPEs/internship, while all other areas of experience ranged from "not at all" to "a little." The pharmacy simulation program is an effective active-learning exercise and enhanced students' knowledge and understanding of the business management topics covered.

A Pharmacy Business Management Simulation Exercise as a Practical Application of Business Management Material and Principles

PubMed Central

Rollins, Brent L.; Gunturi, Rahul; Sullivan, Donald

2014-01-01

Objective. To implement a pharmacy business management simulation exercise as a practical application of business management material and principles and assess students’ perceived value. Design. As part of a pharmacy management and administration course, students made various calculations and management decisions in the global categories of hours of operation, inventory, pricing, and personnel. The students entered the data into simulation software and a realistic community pharmacy marketplace was modeled. Course topics included accounting, economics, finance, human resources, management, marketing, and leadership. Assessment. An 18-item posttest survey was administered. Students’ slightly to moderately agreed the pharmacy simulation program enhanced their knowledge and understanding, particularly of inventory management, cash flow statements, balance sheets, and income statements. Overall attitudes toward the pharmacy simulation program were also slightly positive and students also slightly agreed the pharmacy simulation program enhanced their learning of pharmacy business management. Inventory management was the only area in which students felt they had at least “some” exposure to the assessed business management topics during IPPEs/internship, while all other areas of experience ranged from “not at all” to “a little.” Conclusion. The pharmacy simulation program is an effective active-learning exercise and enhanced students’ knowledge and understanding of the business management topics covered. PMID:24761023

A Cloud-Based Simulation Architecture for Pandemic Influenza Simulation

PubMed Central

Eriksson, Henrik; Raciti, Massimiliano; Basile, Maurizio; Cunsolo, Alessandro; Fröberg, Anders; Leifler, Ola; Ekberg, Joakim; Timpka, Toomas

2011-01-01

High-fidelity simulations of pandemic outbreaks are resource consuming. Cluster-based solutions have been suggested for executing such complex computations. We present a cloud-based simulation architecture that utilizes computing resources both locally available and dynamically rented online. The approach uses the Condor framework for job distribution and management of the Amazon Elastic Computing Cloud (EC2) as well as local resources. The architecture has a web-based user interface that allows users to monitor and control simulation execution. In a benchmark test, the best cost-adjusted performance was recorded for the EC2 H-CPU Medium instance, while a field trial showed that the job configuration had significant influence on the execution time and that the network capacity of the master node could become a bottleneck. We conclude that it is possible to develop a scalable simulation environment that uses cloud-based solutions, while providing an easy-to-use graphical user interface. PMID:22195089

On the deterministic and stochastic use of hydrologic models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Farmer, William H.; Vogel, Richard M.

2016-01-01

Environmental simulation models, such as precipitation-runoff watershed models, are increasingly used in a deterministic manner for environmental and water resources design, planning, and management. In operational hydrology, simulated responses are now routinely used to plan, design, and manage a very wide class of water resource systems. However, all such models are calibrated to existing data sets and retain some residual error. This residual, typically unknown in practice, is often ignored, implicitly trusting simulated responses as if they are deterministic quantities. In general, ignoring the residuals will result in simulated responses with distributional properties that do not mimic those of the observed responses. This discrepancy has major implications for the operational use of environmental simulation models as is shown here. Both a simple linear model and a distributed-parameter precipitation-runoff model are used to document the expected bias in the distributional properties of simulated responses when the residuals are ignored. The systematic reintroduction of residuals into simulated responses in a manner that produces stochastic output is shown to improve the distributional properties of the simulated responses. Every effort should be made to understand the distributional behavior of simulation residuals and to use environmental simulation models in a stochastic manner.

Performance Evaluation of Resource Management in Cloud Computing Environments.

PubMed

Batista, Bruno Guazzelli; Estrella, Julio Cezar; Ferreira, Carlos Henrique Gomes; Filho, Dionisio Machado Leite; Nakamura, Luis Hideo Vasconcelos; Reiff-Marganiec, Stephan; Santana, Marcos José; Santana, Regina Helena Carlucci

2015-01-01

Cloud computing is a computational model in which resource providers can offer on-demand services to clients in a transparent way. However, to be able to guarantee quality of service without limiting the number of accepted requests, providers must be able to dynamically manage the available resources so that they can be optimized. This dynamic resource management is not a trivial task, since it involves meeting several challenges related to workload modeling, virtualization, performance modeling, deployment and monitoring of applications on virtualized resources. This paper carries out a performance evaluation of a module for resource management in a cloud environment that includes handling available resources during execution time and ensuring the quality of service defined in the service level agreement. An analysis was conducted of different resource configurations to define which dimension of resource scaling has a real influence on client requests. The results were used to model and implement a simulated cloud system, in which the allocated resource can be changed on-the-fly, with a corresponding change in price. In this way, the proposed module seeks to satisfy both the client by ensuring quality of service, and the provider by ensuring the best use of resources at a fair price.

Performance Evaluation of Resource Management in Cloud Computing Environments

PubMed Central

Batista, Bruno Guazzelli; Estrella, Julio Cezar; Ferreira, Carlos Henrique Gomes; Filho, Dionisio Machado Leite; Nakamura, Luis Hideo Vasconcelos; Reiff-Marganiec, Stephan; Santana, Marcos José; Santana, Regina Helena Carlucci

2015-01-01

Cloud computing is a computational model in which resource providers can offer on-demand services to clients in a transparent way. However, to be able to guarantee quality of service without limiting the number of accepted requests, providers must be able to dynamically manage the available resources so that they can be optimized. This dynamic resource management is not a trivial task, since it involves meeting several challenges related to workload modeling, virtualization, performance modeling, deployment and monitoring of applications on virtualized resources. This paper carries out a performance evaluation of a module for resource management in a cloud environment that includes handling available resources during execution time and ensuring the quality of service defined in the service level agreement. An analysis was conducted of different resource configurations to define which dimension of resource scaling has a real influence on client requests. The results were used to model and implement a simulated cloud system, in which the allocated resource can be changed on-the-fly, with a corresponding change in price. In this way, the proposed module seeks to satisfy both the client by ensuring quality of service, and the provider by ensuring the best use of resources at a fair price. PMID:26555730

Achieving sustainable ground-water management by using GIS-integrated simulation tools: the EU H2020 FREEWAT platform

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rossetto, Rudy; De Filippis, Giovanna; Borsi, Iacopo; Foglia, Laura; Toegl, Anja; Cannata, Massimiliano; Neumann, Jakob; Vazquez-Sune, Enric; Criollo, Rotman

2017-04-01

In order to achieve sustainable and participated ground-water management, innovative software built on the integration of numerical models within GIS software is a perfect candidate to provide a full characterization of quantitative and qualitative aspects of ground- and surface-water resources maintaining the time and spatial dimension. The EU H2020 FREEWAT project (FREE and open source software tools for WATer resource management; Rossetto et al., 2015) aims at simplifying the application of EU water-related Directives through an open-source and public-domain, GIS-integrated simulation platform for planning and management of ground- and surface-water resources. The FREEWAT platform allows to simulate the whole hydrological cycle, coupling the power of GIS geo-processing and post-processing tools in spatial data analysis with that of process-based simulation models. This results in a modeling environment where large spatial datasets can be stored, managed and visualized and where several simulation codes (mainly belonging to the USGS MODFLOW family) are integrated to simulate multiple hydrological, hydrochemical or economic processes. So far, the FREEWAT platform is a large plugin for the QGIS GIS desktop software and it integrates the following capabilities: • the AkvaGIS module allows to produce plots and statistics for the analysis and interpretation of hydrochemical and hydrogeological data; • the Observation Analysis Tool, to facilitate the import, analysis and visualization of time-series data and the use of these data to support model construction and calibration; • groundwater flow simulation in the saturated and unsaturated zones may be simulated using MODFLOW-2005 (Harbaugh, 2005); • multi-species advective-dispersive transport in the saturated zone can be simulated using MT3DMS (Zheng & Wang, 1999); the possibility to simulate viscosity- and density-dependent flows is further accomplished through SEAWAT (Langevin et al., 2007); • sustainable management of combined use of ground- and surface-water resources in rural environments is accomplished by the Farm Process module embedded in MODFLOW-OWHM (Hanson et al., 2014), which allows to dynamically integrate crop water demand and supply from ground- and surface-water; • UCODE_2014 (Poeter et al., 2014) is implemented to perform sensitivity analysis and parameter estimation to improve the model fit through an inverse, regression method based on the evaluation of an objective function. Through creating a common environment among water research/professionals, policy makers and implementers, FREEWAT aims at enhancing science and participatory approach and evidence-based decision making in water resource management, hence producing relevant outcomes for policy implementation. Acknowledgements This paper is presented within the framework of the project FREEWAT, which has received funding from the European Union's HORIZON 2020 research and innovation programme under Grant Agreement n. 642224. References Hanson, R.T., Boyce, S.E., Schmid, W., Hughes, J.D., Mehl, S.M., Leake, S.A., Maddock, T., Niswonger, R.G. One-Water Hydrologic Flow Model (MODFLOW-OWHM), U.S. Geological Survey, Techniques and Methods 6-A51, 2014 134 p. Harbaugh A.W. (2005) - MODFLOW-2005, The U.S. Geological Survey Modular Ground-Water Model - the Ground-Water Flow Process. U.S. Geological Survey, Techniques and Methods 6-A16, 253 p. Langevin C.D., Thorne D.T. Jr., Dausman A.M., Sukop M.C. & Guo Weixing (2007) - SEAWAT Version 4: A Computer Program for Simulation of Multi-Species Solute and Heat Transport. U.S. Geological Survey Techniques and Methods 6-A22, 39 pp. Poeter E.P., Hill M.C., Lu D., Tiedeman C.R. & Mehl S. (2014) - UCODE_2014, with new capabilities to define parameters unique to predictions, calculate weights using simulated values, estimate parameters with SVD, evaluate uncertainty with MCMC, and more. Integrated Groundwater Modeling Center Report Number GWMI 2014-02. Rossetto, R., Borsi, I. & Foglia, L. FREEWAT: FREE and open source software tools for WATer resource management, Rendiconti Online Società Geologica Italiana, 2015, 35, 252-255. Zheng C. & Wang P.P. (1999) - MT3DMS, A modular three-dimensional multi-species transport model for simulation of advection, dispersion and chemical reactions of contaminants in groundwater systems. U.S. Army Engineer Research and Development Center Contract Report SERDP-99-1, Vicksburg, MS, 202 pp.

Need for evaluative methodologies in land use, regional resource and waste management planning

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Croke, E. J.

The transfer of planning methodology from the research community to the practitioner very frequently takes the form of analytical and evaluative techniques and procedures. In the end, these become operational in the form of data acquisition, management and display systems, computational schemes that are codified in the form of manuals and handbooks, and computer simulation models. The complexity of the socioeconomic and physical processes that govern environmental resource and waste management have reinforced the need for computer assisted, scientifically sophisticated planning models that are fully operational, dependent on an attainable data base and accessible in terms of the resources normallymore » available to practitioners of regional resource management, waste management, and land use planning. A variety of models and procedures that attempt to meet one or more of the needs of these practitioners are discussed.« less

Assessing the potential of economic instruments for managing drought risk at river basin scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pulido-Velazquez, M.; Lopez-Nicolas, A.; Macian-Sorribes, H.

2015-12-01

Economic instruments work as incentives to adapt individual decisions to collectively agreed goals. Different types of economic instruments have been applied to manage water resources, such as water-related taxes and charges (water pricing, environmental taxes, etc.), subsidies, markets or voluntary agreements. Hydroeconomic models (HEM) provide useful insight on optimal strategies for coping with droughts by simultaneously analysing engineering, hydrology and economics of water resources management. We use HEMs for evaluating the potential of economic instruments on managing drought risk at river basin scale, considering three criteria for assessing drought risk: reliability, resilience and vulnerability. HEMs allow to calculate water scarcity costs as the economic losses due to water deliveries below the target demands, which can be used as a vulnerability descriptor of drought risk. Two generic hydroeconomic DSS tools, SIMGAMS and OPTIGAMS ( both programmed in GAMS) have been developed to evaluate water scarcity cost at river basin scale based on simulation and optimization approaches. The simulation tool SIMGAMS allocates water according to the system priorities and operating rules, and evaluate the scarcity costs using economic demand functions. The optimization tool allocates water resources for maximizing net benefits (minimizing total water scarcity plus operating cost of water use). SIMGAS allows to simulate incentive water pricing policies based on water availability in the system (scarcity pricing), while OPTIGAMS is used to simulate the effect of ideal water markets by economic optimization. These tools have been applied to the Jucar river system (Spain), highly regulated and with high share of water use for crop irrigation (greater than 80%), where water scarcity, irregular hydrology and groundwater overdraft cause droughts to have significant economic, social and environmental consequences. An econometric model was first used to explain the variation of the production value of irrigated agriculture during droughts, assessing revenue responses to varying crop prices and water availability. Hydroeconomic approaches were then used to show the potential of economic instruments in setting incentives for a more efficient management of water resources systems.

Business Simulation Games: Effective Teaching Tools or Window Dressing?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tanner, John R.; Stewart, Geoffrey; Totaro, Michael W.; Hargrave, Melissa

2012-01-01

Business simulations serve as learning platforms that stimulate the "gaming" interest of students, that provide a structured learning environment, and that should help manage the time resources of faculty. Simulations appear to provide a context where students feel learning can take place. However, faculty perception of simulation…

A system dynamics simulation model for sustainable water resources management and agricultural development in the Volta River Basin, Ghana.

PubMed

Kotir, Julius H; Smith, Carl; Brown, Greg; Marshall, Nadine; Johnstone, Ron

2016-12-15

In a rapidly changing water resources system, dynamic models based on the notion of systems thinking can serve as useful analytical tools for scientists and policy-makers to study changes in key system variables over time. In this paper, an integrated system dynamics simulation model was developed using a system dynamics modelling approach to examine the feedback processes and interaction between the population, the water resource, and the agricultural production sub-sectors of the Volta River Basin in West Africa. The objective of the model is to provide a learning tool for policy-makers to improve their understanding of the long-term dynamic behaviour of the basin, and as a decision support tool for exploring plausible policy scenarios necessary for sustainable water resource management and agricultural development. Structural and behavioural pattern tests, and statistical test were used to evaluate and validate the performance of the model. The results showed that the simulated outputs agreed well with the observed reality of the system. A sensitivity analysis also indicated that the model is reliable and robust to uncertainties in the major parameters. Results of the business as usual scenario showed that total population, agricultural, domestic, and industrial water demands will continue to increase over the simulated period. Besides business as usual, three additional policy scenarios were simulated to assess their impact on water demands, crop yield, and net-farm income. These were the development of the water infrastructure (scenario 1), cropland expansion (scenario 2) and dry conditions (scenario 3). The results showed that scenario 1 would provide the maximum benefit to people living in the basin. Overall, the model results could help inform planning and investment decisions within the basin to enhance food security, livelihoods development, socio-economic growth, and sustainable management of natural resources. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Toward improved simulation of river operations through integration with a hydrologic model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Morway, Eric D.; Niswonger, Richard G.; Triana, Enrique

2016-01-01

Advanced modeling tools are needed for informed water resources planning and management. Two classes of modeling tools are often used to this end–(1) distributed-parameter hydrologic models for quantifying supply and (2) river-operation models for sorting out demands under rule-based systems such as the prior-appropriation doctrine. Within each of these two broad classes of models, there are many software tools that excel at simulating the processes specific to each discipline, but have historically over-simplified, or at worse completely neglected, aspects of the other. As a result, water managers reliant on river-operation models for administering water resources need improved tools for representing spatially and temporally varying groundwater resources in conjunctive-use systems. A new tool is described that improves the representation of groundwater/surface-water (GW-SW) interaction within a river-operations modeling context and, in so doing, advances evaluation of system-wide hydrologic consequences of new or altered management regimes.

Evaluating the effectiveness of cockpit resource management training

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Helmreich, Robert L.

1989-01-01

The concept of providing flight crews with intensive training in crew coordination and interpersonal skills (cockpit resource management training - CRM) is outlined with emphasis on full mission simulator training (line-oriented flight training - LOFT). Findings from several airlines that have instituted CRM and LOFT are summarized. Four types of criteria used for evaluating CRM programs: observer ratings of crew behavior, measures of attitudes regarding cockpit management, self-reports by participants on the value of the training, and case studies of CRM-related incidents and accidents are covered. Attention is focused on ratings of the performance of crews during line flights and during simulator sessions conducted as a part of LOFT. A boomerang effect - the emergence of a subgroup that has changed the attitudes in the opposite direction from that desired is emphasized.

Proceedings of the 1991 Symposium on Systems Analysis in Forest Resources

Treesearch

[Compiler

1991-01-01

Forest Service, university, forest industry, and private consulting representatives presented 65 papers. General topic areas include: land management planning, multicriteria optimization, timber harvest scheduling, geographic information systems, sawmill simulation, timber supply analysis, and climate simulation.

Space Flight Resource Management Training for International Space Station Flight Controllers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

O'Keefe, William S.

2011-01-01

Training includes both SFRM-dedicated lessons and SFRM training embedded into technical lessons. Goal is to reduce certification times by 50% and integrated simulations by 75-90%. SFRM is practiced, evaluated and debriefed in part task trainers and full-task simulation lessons. SFRM model and training are constantly being evaluated against student/management feedback, best practices from industry/ military, and latest research.

Crisis Resource Management in the Delivery Room: Development of Behavioral Markers for Team Performance in Emergency Simulation

PubMed Central

de Tonetti, Gabriele; Geretto, Francesca; Celleno, Danilo

2018-01-01

Human factors are the most relevant issues contributing to adverse events in obstetrics. Specific training of Crisis Resource Management (CRM) skills (i.e., problem solving and team management, resource allocation, awareness of environment, and dynamic decision-making) is now widespread and is often based on High Fidelity Simulation. In order to be used as a guideline in simulated scenarios, CRM skills need to be mapped to specific and observable behavioral markers. For this purpose, we developed a set of observable behaviors related to the main elements of CRM in the delivery room. The observational tool was then adopted in a two-days seminar on obstetric hemorrhage where teams working in obstetric wards of six Italian hospitals took part in simulations. The tool was used as a guide for the debriefing and as a peer-to-peer feedback. It was then rated for its usefulness in facilitating the reflection upon one’s own behavior, its ease of use, and its usefulness for the peer-to-peer feedback. The ratings were positive, with a median of 4 on a 5-point scale. The CRM observational tool has therefore been well-received and presents a promising level of inter-rater agreement. We believe the tool could have value in facilitating debriefing and in the peer-to-peer feedback. PMID:29510491

The Evaluation of ERP Sandtable Simulation Based on AHP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Lan

Due to the trend of world globalization, many enterprises have extended their business to operate globally. Enterprise resource planning is a powerful management system providing the best business resources information. This paper proposed the theory of AHP, and presented ERP sandtable simulation evaluation to discuss how to make a decision using AHP. Using this method can make enterprises consider factors influence operation of enterprise adequately, including feedback and dependence among the factors.

Generalized DSS shell for developing simulation and optimization hydro-economic models of complex water resources systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pulido-Velazquez, Manuel; Lopez-Nicolas, Antonio; Harou, Julien J.; Andreu, Joaquin

2013-04-01

Hydrologic-economic models allow integrated analysis of water supply, demand and infrastructure management at the river basin scale. These models simultaneously analyze engineering, hydrology and economic aspects of water resources management. Two new tools have been designed to develop models within this approach: a simulation tool (SIM_GAMS), for models in which water is allocated each month based on supply priorities to competing uses and system operating rules, and an optimization tool (OPT_GAMS), in which water resources are allocated optimally following economic criteria. The characterization of the water resource network system requires a connectivity matrix representing the topology of the elements, generated using HydroPlatform. HydroPlatform, an open-source software platform for network (node-link) models, allows to store, display and export all information needed to characterize the system. Two generic non-linear models have been programmed in GAMS to use the inputs from HydroPlatform in simulation and optimization models. The simulation model allocates water resources on a monthly basis, according to different targets (demands, storage, environmental flows, hydropower production, etc.), priorities and other system operating rules (such as reservoir operating rules). The optimization model's objective function is designed so that the system meets operational targets (ranked according to priorities) each month while following system operating rules. This function is analogous to the one used in the simulation module of the DSS AQUATOOL. Each element of the system has its own contribution to the objective function through unit cost coefficients that preserve the relative priority rank and the system operating rules. The model incorporates groundwater and stream-aquifer interaction (allowing conjunctive use simulation) with a wide range of modeling options, from lumped and analytical approaches to parameter-distributed models (eigenvalue approach). Such functionality is not typically included in other water DSS. Based on the resulting water resources allocation, the model calculates operating and water scarcity costs caused by supply deficits based on economic demand functions for each demand node. The optimization model allocates the available resource over time based on economic criteria (net benefits from demand curves and cost functions), minimizing the total water scarcity and operating cost of water use. This approach provides solutions that optimize the economic efficiency (as total net benefit) in water resources management over the optimization period. Both models must be used together in water resource planning and management. The optimization model provides an initial insight on economically efficient solutions, from which different operating rules can be further developed and tested using the simulation model. The hydro-economic simulation model allows assessing economic impacts of alternative policies or operating criteria, avoiding the perfect foresight issues associated with the optimization. The tools have been applied to the Jucar river basin (Spain) in order to assess the economic results corresponding to the current modus operandi of the system and compare them with the solution from the optimization that maximizes economic efficiency. Acknowledgments: The study has been partially supported by the European Community 7th Framework Project (GENESIS project, n. 226536) and the Plan Nacional I+D+I 2008-2011 of the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (CGL2009-13238-C02-01 and CGL2009-13238-C02-02).

A groundwater-flow model for the Treasure Valley and surrounding area, southwestern Idaho

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bartolino, James R.; Vincent, Sean

2017-04-17

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in partnership with the Idaho Department of Water Resources (IDWR) and Idaho Water Resource Board (IWRB), will construct a numerical groundwater-flow model of the Treasure Valley and surrounding area. Resource managers will use the model to simulate potential anthropogenic and climatic effects on groundwater for water-supply planning and management. As part of model construction, the hydrogeologic understanding of the aquifer system will be updated with information collected during the last two decades, as well as new data collected for the study.

Integrating research tools to support the management of social-ecological systems under climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miller, Brian W.; Morisette, Jeffrey T.

2014-01-01

Developing resource management strategies in the face of climate change is complicated by the considerable uncertainty associated with projections of climate and its impacts and by the complex interactions between social and ecological variables. The broad, interconnected nature of this challenge has resulted in calls for analytical frameworks that integrate research tools and can support natural resource management decision making in the face of uncertainty and complex interactions. We respond to this call by first reviewing three methods that have proven useful for climate change research, but whose application and development have been largely isolated: species distribution modeling, scenario planning, and simulation modeling. Species distribution models provide data-driven estimates of the future distributions of species of interest, but they face several limitations and their output alone is not sufficient to guide complex decisions for how best to manage resources given social and economic considerations along with dynamic and uncertain future conditions. Researchers and managers are increasingly exploring potential futures of social-ecological systems through scenario planning, but this process often lacks quantitative response modeling and validation procedures. Simulation models are well placed to provide added rigor to scenario planning because of their ability to reproduce complex system dynamics, but the scenarios and management options explored in simulations are often not developed by stakeholders, and there is not a clear consensus on how to include climate model outputs. We see these strengths and weaknesses as complementarities and offer an analytical framework for integrating these three tools. We then describe the ways in which this framework can help shift climate change research from useful to usable.

A Decision Support System For The Real-Time Allocation Of The Water Resource Of The Tarim River Basin, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, J.; Wang, G.; Liu, R.

2008-12-01

The Tarim River Basin is the longest inland river in China. Due to water scarcity, ecologically-fragile is becoming a significant constraint to sustainable development in this region. To effectively manage the limited water resources for ecological purposes and for conventional water utilization purposes, a real-time water resources allocation Decision Support System (DSS) has been developed. Based on workflows of the water resources regulations and comprehensive analysis of the efficiency and feasibility of water management strategies, the DSS includes information systems that perform data acquisition, management and visualization, and model systems that perform hydrological forecast, water demand prediction, flow routing simulation and water resources optimization of the hydrological and water utilization process. An optimization and process control strategy is employed to dynamically allocate the water resources among the different stakeholders. The competitive targets and constraints are taken into considered by multi-objective optimization and with different priorities. The DSS of the Tarim River Basin has been developed and been successfully utilized to support the water resources management of the Tarim River Basin since 2005.

Simulated Trauma and Resuscitation Team Training course-evolution of a multidisciplinary trauma crisis resource management simulation course.

PubMed

Gillman, Lawrence M; Brindley, Peter; Paton-Gay, John Damian; Engels, Paul T; Park, Jason; Vergis, Ashley; Widder, Sandy

2016-07-01

We previously reported on a pilot trauma multidisciplinary crisis resource course titled S.T.A.R.T.T. (Simulated Trauma and Resuscitative Team Training). Here, we study the course's evolution. Satisfaction was evaluated by postcourse survey. Trauma teams were evaluated using the Ottawa global rating scale and an Advanced Trauma Life Support primary survey checklist. Eleven "trauma teams," consisting of physicians, nurses, and respiratory therapists, each completed 4 crisis simulations over 3 courses. Satisfaction remained high among participants with overall mean satisfaction being 4.39 on a 5-point Likert scale. As participants progressed through scenarios, improvements in global rating scale scores were seen between the 1st and 4th (29.8 vs 36.1 of 42, P = .022), 2nd and 3rd (28.2 vs 34.6, P = .017), and 2nd and 4th (28.2 vs 36.1, P = .003) scenarios. There were no differences in Advanced Trauma Life Support checklist with mean scores for each scenario ranging 11.3 to 13.2 of 17. The evolved Simulated Trauma and Resuscitative Team Training curriculum has maintained high participant satisfaction and is associated with improvement in team crisis resource management skills over the duration of the course. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Using state-and-transition modeling to account for imperfect detection in invasive species management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frid, Leonardo; Holcombe, Tracy; Morisette, Jeffrey T.; Olsson, Aaryn D.; Brigham, Lindy; Bean, Travis M.; Betancourt, Julio L.; Bryan, Katherine

2013-01-01

Buffelgrass, a highly competitive and flammable African bunchgrass, is spreading rapidly across both urban and natural areas in the Sonoran Desert of southern and central Arizona. Damages include increased fire risk, losses in biodiversity, and diminished revenues and quality of life. Feasibility of sustained and successful mitigation will depend heavily on rates of spread, treatment capacity, and cost–benefit analysis. We created a decision support model for the wildland–urban interface north of Tucson, AZ, using a spatial state-and-transition simulation modeling framework, the Tool for Exploratory Landscape Scenario Analyses. We addressed the issues of undetected invasions, identifying potentially suitable habitat and calibrating spread rates, while answering questions about how to allocate resources among inventory, treatment, and maintenance. Inputs to the model include a state-and-transition simulation model to describe the succession and control of buffelgrass, a habitat suitability model, management planning zones, spread vectors, estimated dispersal kernels for buffelgrass, and maps of current distribution. Our spatial simulations showed that without treatment, buffelgrass infestations that started with as little as 80 ha (198 ac) could grow to more than 6,000 ha by the year 2060. In contrast, applying unlimited management resources could limit 2060 infestation levels to approximately 50 ha. The application of sufficient resources toward inventory is important because undetected patches of buffelgrass will tend to grow exponentially. In our simulations, areas affected by buffelgrass may increase substantially over the next 50 yr, but a large, upfront investment in buffelgrass control could reduce the infested area and overall management costs.

Implementation and evaluation of a simulation curriculum for paediatric residency programs including just-in-time in situ mock codes.

PubMed

Sam, Jonathan; Pierse, Michael; Al-Qahtani, Abdullah; Cheng, Adam

2012-02-01

To develop, implement and evaluate a simulation-based acute care curriculum in a paediatric residency program using an integrated and longitudinal approach. Curriculum framework consisting of three modular, year-specific courses and longitudinal just-in-time, in situ mock codes. Paediatric residency program at BC Children's Hospital, Vancouver, British Columbia. The three year-specific courses focused on the critical first 5 min, complex medical management and crisis resource management, respectively. The just-in-time in situ mock codes simulated the acute deterioration of an existing ward patient, prepared the actual multidisciplinary code team, and primed the surrounding crisis support systems. Each curriculum component was evaluated with surveys using a five-point Likert scale. A total of 40 resident surveys were completed after each of the modular courses, and an additional 28 surveys were completed for the overall simulation curriculum. The highest Likert scores were for hands-on skill stations, immersive simulation environment and crisis resource management teaching. Survey results also suggested that just-in-time mock codes were realistic, reinforced learning, and prepared ward teams for patient deterioration. A simulation-based acute care curriculum was successfully integrated into a paediatric residency program. It provides a model for integrating simulation-based learning into other training programs, as well as a model for any hospital that wishes to improve paediatric resuscitation outcomes using just-in-time in situ mock codes.

Minimizing patient waiting time in emergency department of public hospital using simulation optimization approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ibrahim, Ireen Munira; Liong, Choong-Yeun; Bakar, Sakhinah Abu; Ahmad, Norazura; Najmuddin, Ahmad Farid

2017-04-01

Emergency department (ED) is the main unit of a hospital that provides emergency treatment. Operating 24 hours a day with limited number of resources invites more problems to the current chaotic situation in some hospitals in Malaysia. Delays in getting treatments that caused patients to wait for a long period of time are among the frequent complaints against government hospitals. Therefore, the ED management needs a model that can be used to examine and understand resource capacity which can assist the hospital managers to reduce patients waiting time. Simulation model was developed based on 24 hours data collection. The model developed using Arena simulation replicates the actual ED's operations of a public hospital in Selangor, Malaysia. The OptQuest optimization in Arena is used to find the possible combinations of a number of resources that can minimize patients waiting time while increasing the number of patients served. The simulation model was modified for improvement based on results from OptQuest. The improvement model significantly improves ED's efficiency with an average of 32% reduction in average patients waiting times and 25% increase in the total number of patients served.

Do technical skills correlate with non-technical skills in crisis resource management: a simulation study.

PubMed

Riem, N; Boet, S; Bould, M D; Tavares, W; Naik, V N

2012-11-01

Both technical skills (TS) and non-technical skills (NTS) are key to ensuring patient safety in acute care practice and effective crisis management. These skills are often taught and assessed separately. We hypothesized that TS and NTS are not independent of each other, and we aimed to evaluate the relationship between TS and NTS during a simulated intraoperative crisis scenario. This study was a retrospective analysis of performances from a previously published work. After institutional ethics approval, 50 anaesthesiology residents managed a simulated crisis scenario of an intraoperative cardiac arrest secondary to a malignant arrhythmia. We used a modified Delphi approach to design a TS checklist, specific for the management of a malignant arrhythmia requiring defibrillation. All scenarios were recorded. Each performance was analysed by four independent experts. For each performance, two experts independently rated the technical performance using the TS checklist, and two other experts independently rated NTS using the Anaesthetists' Non-Technical Skills score. TS and NTS were significantly correlated to each other (r=0.45, P<0.05). During a simulated 5 min resuscitation requiring crisis resource management, our results indicate that TS and NTS are related to one another. This research provides the basis for future studies evaluating the nature of this relationship, the influence of NTS training on the performance of TS, and to determine whether NTS are generic and transferrable between crises that require different TS.

Cockpit resource management training at People Express

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bruce, Keith D.; Jensen, Doug

1987-01-01

In January 1986 in a continuing effort to maintain and improve flight safety and solve some Cockpit Resource Management (CRM) problems, People Express implemented a new CRM training program. It is a continuously running program, scheduled over the next three years and includes state-of-the-art full-mission simulation (LOFT), semi-annual seminar workshops and a comprehensive academic program authored by Robert W. Mudge of Cockpit Management Resources Inc. That program is outlined and to maximize its contribution to the workshop's goals, is organized into four topic areas: (1) Program content: the essential elements of resource management training; (2) Training methods: the strengths and weaknesses of current approaches; (3) Implementation: the implementation of CRM training; and (4) Effectiveness: the effectiveness of training. It is confined as much as possible to concise descriptions of the program's basic components. Brief discussions of rationale are included, however no attempt is made to discuss or review popular CRM tenets or the supporting research.

14 CFR 121.917 - Other requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... technical (piloting or other) skills in an actual or simulated operations scenario. For flight crewmembers this training and evaluation must be conducted in an approved flight training device, flight simulator... Dispatcher Resource Management (DRM) ground and if appropriate flight training applicable to each position...

14 CFR 121.917 - Other requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... technical (piloting or other) skills in an actual or simulated operations scenario. For flight crewmembers this training and evaluation must be conducted in an approved flight training device, flight simulator... Dispatcher Resource Management (DRM) ground and if appropriate flight training applicable to each position...

14 CFR 121.917 - Other requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... technical (piloting or other) skills in an actual or simulated operations scenario. For flight crewmembers this training and evaluation must be conducted in an approved flight training device, flight simulator... Dispatcher Resource Management (DRM) ground and if appropriate flight training applicable to each position...

14 CFR 121.917 - Other requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... technical (piloting or other) skills in an actual or simulated operations scenario. For flight crewmembers this training and evaluation must be conducted in an approved flight training device, flight simulator... Dispatcher Resource Management (DRM) ground and if appropriate flight training applicable to each position...

Effects of visual, seat, and platform motion during flight simulator air transport pilot training and evaluation

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-04-27

Access to affordable and effective flight-simulation training devices (FSTDs) is critical to safely train airline crews in aviating, navigating, communicating, making decisions, and managing flight-deck and crew resources. This paper provides an over...

The use of coupled atmospheric and hydrological models for water-resources management in headwater basins

USGS Publications Warehouse

Leavesley, G.; Hay, L.

1998-01-01

Coupled atmospheric and hydrological models provide an opportunity for the improved management of water resources in headwater basins. Issues currently limiting full implementation of coupled-model methodologies include (a) the degree of uncertainty in the accuracy of precipitation and other meteorological variables simulated by atmospheric models, and (b) the problem of discordant scales between atmospheric and bydrological models. Alternative methodologies being developed to address these issues are reviewed.

Job Management Requirements for NAS Parallel Systems and Clusters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Saphir, William; Tanner, Leigh Ann; Traversat, Bernard

1995-01-01

A job management system is a critical component of a production supercomputing environment, permitting oversubscribed resources to be shared fairly and efficiently. Job management systems that were originally designed for traditional vector supercomputers are not appropriate for the distributed-memory parallel supercomputers that are becoming increasingly important in the high performance computing industry. Newer job management systems offer new functionality but do not solve fundamental problems. We address some of the main issues in resource allocation and job scheduling we have encountered on two parallel computers - a 160-node IBM SP2 and a cluster of 20 high performance workstations located at the Numerical Aerodynamic Simulation facility. We describe the requirements for resource allocation and job management that are necessary to provide a production supercomputing environment on these machines, prioritizing according to difficulty and importance, and advocating a return to fundamental issues.

Using medical simulation to teach crisis resource management and decision-making skills to otolaryngology housestaff.

PubMed

Volk, Mark S; Ward, Jessica; Irias, Noel; Navedo, Andres; Pollart, Jennifer; Weinstock, Peter H

2011-07-01

Develop a course to use in situ high-fidelity medical simulation (HFS) in an actual operating room (OR) to (1) teach teamwork and crisis resource management (CRM) skills simultaneously to otolaryngology and anesthesia trainees and OR nurses and (2) provide decision-making experience to ear, nose, and throat residents and OR teams in simulated high-risk, low-frequency airway emergencies. A simulation-based, in situ CRM course was developed to teach airway management and CRM in the OR. Upon completion of each course, the participants were surveyed using questions with (1-5) scale answers. The simulated clinical scenarios took place in the intensive care unit and OR at Children's Hospital Boston. The participants consisted of pediatric otolaryngology fellows, otolaryngology residents, anesthesiology residents, fellows, and certified registered nurse anesthetists as well as OR nurses. Fifty-nine individuals participated in 9 simulation-based courses given between October 2008 and May 2010. The team members participated together in 3 simulated medical crises that centered on airway and anesthesia issues. Each simulated crisis was followed by a structured debriefing session conducted by trained debriefers. Embedded within the course were didactics on CRM principles. The participants' responses on the survey included General Course Organization, Realism, Debriefing, and Relevance to Future Practice. Ninety percent of the responses were favorable or very favorable. Using a newly developed, in situ HFS-based course, clinical decision-making skills and teamwork can be effectively taught concurrently to members of an OR team.

Error Detection-Based Model to Assess Educational Outcomes in Crisis Resource Management Training: A Pilot Study.

PubMed

Bouhabel, Sarah; Kay-Rivest, Emily; Nhan, Carol; Bank, Ilana; Nugus, Peter; Fisher, Rachel; Nguyen, Lily Hp

2017-06-01

Otolaryngology-head and neck surgery (OTL-HNS) residents face a variety of difficult, high-stress situations, which may occur early in their training. Since these events occur infrequently, simulation-based learning has become an important part of residents' training and is already well established in fields such as anesthesia and emergency medicine. In the domain of OTL-HNS, it is gradually gaining in popularity. Crisis Resource Management (CRM), a program adapted from the aviation industry, aims to improve outcomes of crisis situations by attempting to mitigate human errors. Some examples of CRM principles include cultivating situational awareness; promoting proper use of available resources; and improving rapid decision making, particularly in high-acuity, low-frequency clinical situations. Our pilot project sought to integrate CRM principles into an airway simulation course for OTL-HNS residents, but most important, it evaluated whether learning objectives were met, through use of a novel error identification model.

Simulating the Effects of Alternative Forest Management Strategies on Landscape Structure

Treesearch

Eric J. Gustafson; Thomas Crow

1996-01-01

Quantitative, spatial tools are needed to assess the long-term spatial consequences of alternative management strategies for land use planning and resource management. We constructed a timber harvest allocation model (HARVEST) that provides a visual and quantitative means to predict the spatial pattern of forest openings produced by alternative harvest strategies....

Managing the Nation's water in a changing climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lins, H.F.; Stakhiv, E.Z.

1998-01-01

Among the many concerns associated with global climate change, the potential effects on water resources are frequently cited as the most worrisome. In contrast, those who manage water resources do not rate climatic change among their top planning and operational concerns. The difference in these views can be associated with how water managers operate their systems and the types of stresses, and the operative time horizons, that affect the Nation's water resources infrastructure. Climate, or more precisely weather, is an important variable in the management of water resources at daily to monthly time scales because water resources systems generally are operated on a daily basis. At decadal to centennial time scales, though, climate is much less important because (1) forecasts, particularly of regional precipitation, are extremely uncertain over such time periods, and (2) the magnitude of effects due to changes in climate on water resources is small relative to changes in other variables such as population, technology, economics, and environmental regulation. Thus, water management agencies find it difficult to justify changing design features or operating rules on the basis of simulated climatic change at the present time, especially given that reservoir-design criteria incorporate considerable buffering capacity for extreme meteorological and hydrological events.

Management of an Obstructed Tracheostomy in a Limited-Resource Setting

PubMed Central

Chiaravalli, Julie; Lufesi, Norman; Shawa, Elwin; Nkhoma, Vitumbiko; Sigalet, Elaine

2017-01-01

Obstruction of a tracheostomy tube is a common cause of respiratory compromise in adults and pediatric patients, which can lead to a life-threatening emergency if it is not properly managed. Compromised airway patency has many potential etiologies; however, the scenario described in this technical report focuses specifically on the management of tracheostomy obstruction through the presence of a mucus plug, blood clot, or highly viscous secretions. The simulation described in this technical report was written to be conducted as an in-situ simulation within the intensive care unit (ICU) at Mzuzu Central Hospital, Malawi. The novel aspect of this report is that it depicts the integration of low-tech simulation with a deteriorating patient scenario educational methodology. This integration enables the use of affordable and sustainable simulation materials in Malawi context to deliver learning objectives that are otherwise not achievable. It was designed to train nurses, clinical officers, and nursing students from the ICU and male/female surgical wards. It can be utilized to train similar learners in other resource-poor regions of the world, as well as remote areas of the more developed countries. PMID:28616369

Hydrological Modeling and WEB-GIS for the Water Resource Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pierleoni, A.; Bellezza, M.; Casadei, S.; Manciola, P.

2006-12-01

Water resources are a strategically natural resource although they can be extremely susceptible to degradation. As a matter of fact the increasing demand from multipurpose uses, which often are in competition amongst themselves, seems to affect the concept of sustainability per se', thus highlighting phenomena of quality-quantity degradation of water resources. In this context, the issue of water resource management rises to a more important role, especially when, other then the traditional uses for civil, industrial and agronomic purposes, environmental demands are taken into consideration. In particular, for environmental demands we mean: to preserve minimal flows, to conserve ecosystems and biodiversities, to protect and improve the environment and finally also the recreational facilities. In the present work, two software tools are presented; they combine the scientific aspect of the issues with a feasible and widely accessible application of the mathematical modeling in techno-operative fields within a sustainable management policy of the water resource at the basin scale. The first evaluation model of the available superficial water resource bases its algorithms upon regionalization procedures of flow parameters deduced from the geomorphologic features of the soil of the basin (BFI, Area) and presents, as output, a set of duration curves (DC) of the natural, measurable (natural after withdrawal), and residual (discharge usable for dissipative use) flow. The hydrological modeling combined with a GIS engine allows to process the dataset and regionalize the information of each section of the hydrographic network, in order to attain information about the effect of upriver withdrawals, in terms of evaluation parameters (measurable DC) to maintain an optimal water supply all along the entire downstream network. This model, projected with a WEB interface developed in PERL and connected to a MySQL database, has also been tested at the basin and sub-basin scale as an effective decision support system (DSS). The second software tool is a simulation model of a managed water resource for multipurpose uses. The algorithm is based on a topological sketch of the hydrographic network in terms of "Nodes" and "Links" combined with computation procedures for managing the water resource of big reservoirs. The peculiar feature of this method is that it performs a preliminary budget between the total available amount and the demand over a time span longer than the simulation step (week, month). During the managing phase, four different allocation methods are available: proportional, percentage, priority and balanced priority, hence this tool becomes flexible and allows to simulate many different management policies. This project was developed in JAVA and as a workstation product. Both software tools will be handled in a single system that, combined with a GIS map engine, is an integrated model for managing the water resource at the basin scale. The final aim of this project is to be able to share these scientific tools and hydrological data among many institutional uses. For this purpose, a WEB-based system, under the control of an administrator, provides on the one hand the possibility to easily keep the database up-to-date and on the other, the possibility to share data and retrieve the results of the procedures optimized for managing superficial water resources at the basin scale.

The Application of Modeling and Simulation in Capacity Management within the ITIL Framework

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rahmani, Sonya; vonderHoff, Otto

2010-01-01

Tightly integrating modeling and simulation techniques into Information Technology Infrastructure Library (ITIL) practices can be one of the driving factors behind a successful and cost-effective capacity management effort for any Information Technology (IT) system. ITIL is a best practices framework for managing IT infrastructure, development and operations. Translating ITIL theory into operational reality can be a challenge. This paper aims to highlight how to best integrate modeling and simulation into an ITIL implementation. For cases where the project team initially has difficulty gaining consensus on investing in modeling and simulation resources, a clear definition for M&S implementation into the ITIL framework, specifically its role in supporting Capacity Management, is critical to gaining the support required to garner these resources. This implementation should also help to clearly define M&S support to the overall system mission. This paper will describe the development of an integrated modeling approach and how best to tie M&S to definitive goals for evaluating system capacity and performance requirements. Specifically the paper will discuss best practices for implementing modeling and simulation into ITIL. These practices hinge on implementing integrated M&S methods that 1) encompass at least two or more predictive modeling techniques, 2) complement each one's respective strengths and weaknesses to support the validation of predicted results, and 3) are tied to the system's performance and workload monitoring efforts. How to structure two forms of modeling: statistical and simUlation in the development of "As Is" and "To Be" efforts will be used to exemplify the integrated M&S methods. The paper will show how these methods can better support the project's overall capacity management efforts.

[Hi-Fi simulation: Teaching crisis resource management to surgery residents].

PubMed

Georgescu, Mihai; Tanoubi, Issam; Drolet, Pierre; Robitaille, Arnaud; Perron, Roger; Patenaude, Jean Victor

2015-02-01

High-fidelity (HiFi) simulation has shown its effectiveness for teaching crisis resource management (CRM) principles, and our institutional experience in this area is mainly with anesthesiology residents. We recently added to our postgraduate curriculum a new CRM course designed to cater to the specific needs of surgical residents. This short communication describes the experience of the University of Montreal Simulation Centre (Centre d'Apprentissage des Attitudes et Habiletés Cliniques CAAHC) regarding HiFi simulationbased CRM and communication skills teaching for surgical residents. Thirty residents agreed to participate in a simulation course with pre-established scenarios and educational CRM objectives on a voluntary basis. When surveyed immediately after the activity, all residents agreed that the educational objectives were well defined (80% "strongly agree" and 20% "agree"). The survey also showed that the course was well accepted by all participants (96% "strongly agree" and 4% "agree"). Further trials with randomized groups and more reliable assessment tools are needed to validate our results. Still, integrating HiFi simulation based CRM learning in the surgical residency curriculum seems like an interesting step.

Summary appraisals of the Nation's ground-water resources; Lower Mississippi region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Terry, J.E.; Hosman, R.L.; Bryant, C.T.

1979-01-01

Great advances have been made in hydrologic technology in recent years. Predictive models have been developed that make it possible for the hydroiogist to simulate aquifer responses to proposed development or other stresses. These models would be invaluable tools in progressive water-resources planning and management.

Global sensitivity analysis for UNSATCHEM simulations of crop production with degraded waters

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

One strategy for maintaining irrigated agricultural productivity in the face of diminishing resource availability is to make greater use of marginal quality waters and lands. A key to sustaining systems using degraded irrigation waters is salinity management. Advanced simulation models and decision ...

A spatially distributed energy balance snowmelt model for application in mountain basins

USGS Publications Warehouse

Marks, D.; Domingo, J.; Susong, D.; Link, T.; Garen, D.

1999-01-01

Snowmelt is the principal source for soil moisture, ground-water re-charge, and stream-flow in mountainous regions of the western US, Canada, and other similar regions of the world. Information on the timing, magnitude, and contributing area of melt under variable or changing climate conditions is required for successful water and resource management. A coupled energy and mass-balance model ISNOBAL is used to simulate the development and melting of the seasonal snowcover in several mountain basins in California, Idaho, and Utah. Simulations are done over basins varying from 1 to 2500 km2, with simulation periods varying from a few days for the smallest basin, Emerald Lake watershed in California, to multiple snow seasons for the Park City area in Utah. The model is driven by topographically corrected estimates of radiation, temperature, humidity, wind, and precipitation. Simulation results in all basins closely match independently measured snow water equivalent, snow depth, or runoff during both the development and depletion of the snowcover. Spatially distributed estimates of snow deposition and melt allow us to better understand the interaction between topographic structure, climate, and moisture availability in mountain basins of the western US. Application of topographically distributed models such as this will lead to improved water resource and watershed management.Snowmelt is the principal source for soil moisture, ground-water re-charge, and stream-flow in mountainous regions of the western US, Canada, and other similar regions of the world. Information on the timing, magnitude, and contributing area of melt under variable or changing climate conditions is required for successful water and resource management. A coupled energy and mass-balance model ISNOBAL is used to simulate the development and melting of the seasonal snowcover in several mountain basins in California, Idaho, and Utah. Simulations are done over basins varying from 1 to 2500 km2, with simulation periods varying from a few days for the smallest basin, Emerald Lake watershed in California, to multiple snow seasons for the Park City area in Utah. The model is driven by topographically corrected estimates of radiation, temperature, humidity, wind, and precipitation. Simulation results in all basins closely match independently measured snow water equivalent, snow depth, or runoff during both the development and depletion of the snowcover. Spatially distributed estimates of snow deposition and melt allow us to better understand the interaction between topographic structure, climate, and moisture availability in mountain basins of the western US. Application of topographically distributed models such as this will lead to improved water resource and watershed management.

Crisis Resources for Emergency Workers (CREW II): results of a pilot study and simulation-based crisis resource management course for emergency medicine residents.

PubMed

Hicks, Christopher M; Kiss, Alex; Bandiera, Glen W; Denny, Christopher J

2012-11-01

Emergency department resuscitation requires the coordinated efforts of an interdisciplinary team. Aviation-based crisis resource management (CRM) training can improve safety and performance during complex events. We describe the development, piloting, and multilevel evaluation of "Crisis Resources for Emergency Workers" (CREW), a simulation-based CRM curriculum for emergency medicine (EM) residents. Curriculum development was informed by an a priori needs assessment survey. We constructed a 1-day course using simulated resuscitation scenarios paired with focused debriefing sessions. Attitudinal shifts regarding team behaviours were assessed using the Human Factors Attitude Survey (HFAS). A subset of 10 residents participated in standardized pre- and postcourse simulated resuscitation scenarios to quantify the effect of CREW training on our primary outcome of CRM performance. Pre/post scenarios were videotaped and scored by two blinded reviewers using a validated behavioural rating scale, the Ottawa CRM Global Rating Scale (GRS). Postcourse survey responses were highly favourable, with the majority of participants reporting that CREW training can reduce errors and improve patient safety. There was a nonsignificant trend toward improved team-based attitudes as assessed by the HFAS (p  =  0.210). Postcourse performance demonstrated a similar trend toward improved scores in all categories on the Ottawa GRS (p  =  0.16). EM residents find simulation-based CRM instruction to be useful, effective, and highly relevant to their practice. Trends toward improved performance and attitudes may have arisen because our study was underpowered to detect a difference. Future efforts should focus on interdisciplinary training and recruiting a larger sample size.

Managing Nicaraguan Water Resources Definition and Relative Importance of Information Needs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Engi, D.; Guillen, S.M.; Vammen, K.

1999-01-01

This report provides an overview of the results of the Vital the Nicaraguan Water Resources Management Initiative, Issues process as implemented for a collaborative effort between the Nicaraguan Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources and Sandia National Laboratories. This initiative is being developed to assist in the development of an efficient and sustainable water resources management system for Nicamgua. The Vital Issues process was used to provide information for developing a project that will develop and implement an advanced information system for managing Nicaragua's water resources. Three Vital Issues panel meetings were convened to 1) develop a mission statement andmore » evaluation criteria for identifying and ranking the issues vital to water resources management in Nicaragua 2) define and rank the vital issues; and 3) identify a preliminary list of information needed to address the vital issues. The selection of panelists from the four basic institutional perspectives- government, industiy, academe, and citizens' groups (through nongovernmental organizations (NGOs))-ensured a high level of stakeholder representation on the panels. The already existing need for a water resource management information system has been magnified in the aftemnath of Hurricane Mitch. This information system would be beneficial for an early warning system in emergencies, and the modeling and simulation capabilities of the system would allow for advanced planning. Additionally, the outreach program will provide education to help Nicaraguan improve their water hygiene practices.« less

Automation Applications in an Advanced Air Traffic Management System : Volume 5A. DELTA Simulation Model - User's Guide

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1974-08-01

Volume 4 describes the automation requirements. A presentation of automation requirements is made for an advanced air traffic management system in terms of controller work for-e, computer resources, controller productivity, system manning, failure ef...

Field Scale Monitoring and Modeling of Water and Chemical Transfer in the Vadose Zone

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Natural resource systems involve highly complex interactions of soil-plant-atmosphere-management components that are extremely difficult to quantitatively describe. Computer simulations for prediction and management of watersheds, water supply areas, and agricultural fields and farms have become inc...

USEPA's Future Role for the Stormwater Management Model (SWMM)

EPA Science Inventory

USEPA’s Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) is a heavily used model to simulate stormwater and wastewater infrastructure performance as an enhanced decision making tool. SWMM I was released in 1971 by the Metcalf and Eddy, Water Resources Engineers, and the University of Florida...

Impact of a novel, resource appropriate resuscitation curriculum on Nicaraguan resident physician's management of cardiac arrest.

PubMed

Taira, Breena R; Orue, Aristides; Stapleton, Edward; Lovato, Luis; Vangala, Sitaram; Tinoco, Lucia Solorzano; Morales, Orlando

2016-01-01

Project Strengthening Emergency Medicine, Investing in Learners in Latin America (SEMILLA) created a novel, language and resource appropriate course for the resuscitation of cardiac arrest for Nicaraguan resident physicians. We hypothesized that participation in the Project SEMILLA resuscitation program would significantly improve the physician's management of simulated code scenarios. Thirteen Nicaraguan resident physicians were evaluated while managing simulated cardiac arrest scenarios before, immediately, and at 6 months after participating in the Project SEMILLA resuscitation program. This project was completed in 2014 in Leon, Nicaragua. The Cardiac Arrest Simulation Test (CASTest), a validated scoring system, was used to evaluate performance on a standardized simulated cardiac arrest scenario. Mixed effect logistic regression models were constructed to assess outcomes. On the pre-course simulation exam, only 7.7% of subjects passed the test. Immediately post-course, the subjects achieved a 30.8% pass rate and at 6 months after the course, the pass rate was 46.2%. Compared with pre-test scores, the odds of passing the CASTest at 6 months after the course were 21.7 times higher (95% CI 4.2 to 112.8, P<0.001). Statistically significant improvement was also seen on the number of critical items completed (OR=3.75, 95% CI 2.71-5.19), total items completed (OR=4.55, 95% CI 3.4-6.11), and number of "excellent" scores on a Likert scale (OR=2.66, 95% CI 1.85-3.81). Nicaraguan resident physicians demonstrate improved ability to manage simulated cardiac arrest scenarios after participation in the Project SEMILLA resuscitation course and retain these skills.

Implementation and evaluation of a simulation curriculum for paediatric residency programs including just-in-time in situ mock codes

PubMed Central

Sam, Jonathan; Pierse, Michael; Al-Qahtani, Abdullah; Cheng, Adam

2012-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To develop, implement and evaluate a simulation-based acute care curriculum in a paediatric residency program using an integrated and longitudinal approach. DESIGN: Curriculum framework consisting of three modular, year-specific courses and longitudinal just-in-time, in situ mock codes. SETTING: Paediatric residency program at BC Children’s Hospital, Vancouver, British Columbia. INTERVENTIONS: The three year-specific courses focused on the critical first 5 min, complex medical management and crisis resource management, respectively. The just-in-time in situ mock codes simulated the acute deterioration of an existing ward patient, prepared the actual multidisciplinary code team, and primed the surrounding crisis support systems. Each curriculum component was evaluated with surveys using a five-point Likert scale. RESULTS: A total of 40 resident surveys were completed after each of the modular courses, and an additional 28 surveys were completed for the overall simulation curriculum. The highest Likert scores were for hands-on skill stations, immersive simulation environment and crisis resource management teaching. Survey results also suggested that just-in-time mock codes were realistic, reinforced learning, and prepared ward teams for patient deterioration. CONCLUSIONS: A simulation-based acute care curriculum was successfully integrated into a paediatric residency program. It provides a model for integrating simulation-based learning into other training programs, as well as a model for any hospital that wishes to improve paediatric resuscitation outcomes using just-in-time in situ mock codes. PMID:23372405

Implementation of two new resource management information systems in Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kessell, Stephen R.; Good, Roger B.; Hopkins, Angas J. M.

1984-05-01

This paper describes the development and implementation of PREPLAN, A Pristine Environment Planning Language and Simulator, for two conservation areas in Australia, Kosciusko National Park (New South Wales) and Tutanning Nature Reserve (Western Australia). PREPLAN was derived from the North American gradient modeling systems and the Forest Planning Language and Simulator (FORPLAN), but includes unique characteristics not previously available. PREPLAN includes an integrated resource management data base, modules for predicting site-specific vegetation, fuels, animals, fire behavior, and fire effects, and an English language instruction set. PREPLAN was developed specifically to provide available information and understanding of ecosystems to managers in a readily accessible and usable form, and to provide the motivation to conduct additional required research projects. An evaluation of the system's advantages and limitations is presented, and the way the utilization of such systems is improving natural area decision making throughout Australia is discussed.

Forest Vegetation Simulator translocation techniques with the Bureau of Land Management's Forest Vegetation Information system database

Treesearch

Timothy A. Bottomley

2008-01-01

The BLM uses a database, called the Forest Vegetation Information System (FORVIS), to store, retrieve, and analyze forest resource information on a majority of their forested lands. FORVIS also has the capability of easily transferring appropriate data electronically into Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) for simulation runs. Only minor additional data inputs or...

Learning crisis resource management: Practicing versus an observational role in simulation training - a randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

Lai, Anita; Haligua, Alexis; Dylan Bould, M; Everett, Tobias; Gale, Mark; Pigford, Ashlee-Ann; Boet, Sylvain

2016-08-01

Simulation training has been shown to be an effective way to teach crisis resource management (CRM) skills. Deliberate practice theory states that learners need to actively practice so that learning is effective. However, many residency programs have limited opportunities for learners to be "active" participants in simulation exercises. This study compares the effectiveness of learning CRM skills when being an active participant versus being an observer participant in simulation followed by a debriefing. Participants were randomized to two groups: active or observer. Active participants managed a simulated crisis scenario (pre-test) while paired observer participants viewed the scenario via video transmission. Then, a trained instructor debriefed participants on CRM principles. On the same day, each participant individually managed another simulated crisis scenario (post-test) and completed a post-test questionnaire. Two independent, blinded raters evaluated all videos using the Ottawa Global Rating Scale (GRS). Thirty-nine residents were included in the analysis. Normally distributed data were analyzed using paired and unpaired t-tests. Inter-rater reliability was 0.64. Active participants significantly improved from pre-test to post-test (P=0.015). There was no significant difference between the post-test performance of active participants compared to observer participants (P=0.12). We found that learning CRM principles was not superior when learners were active participants compared to being observers followed by debriefing. These findings challenge the deliberate practice theory claiming that learning requires active practice. Assigning residents as observers in simulation training and involving them in debriefing is still beneficial. Copyright © 2016 Société française d'anesthésie et de réanimation (Sfar). Published by Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Can APEX Represent In-Field Spatial Variability and Simulate Its Effects On Crop Yields?

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Precision agriculture, from variable rate nitrogen application to precision irrigation, promises improved management of resources by considering the spatial variability of topography and soil properties. Hydrologic models need to simulate the effects of this variability if they are to inform about t...

Hypothermia in a Rural Setting: An Emergency Medicine Simulation Scenario

PubMed Central

Jong, Robert; Heroux, Aron; Dubrowski, Adam

2017-01-01

Patients presenting with hypothermia in a rural emergency department can be quite challenging to manage without significant mortality and morbidity. Standard medical school curricula do not fully prepare trainees for the unique aspects of practice in northern rural and remote communities. Training opportunities on site may provide a solution to this lack of experience. However, these communities often have limited simulation-based resources and expertise for conducting and developing simulation scenarios. In this technical report, we outline a hypothermia simulation that utilizes only basic resources and is, thus, practical for rural and remote facilities. The aim of this report is to better equip trainees, clinicians, and emergency department staff who may encounter such a scenario in their practice. While the simulation is specifically designed for medical students, resident doctors, and emergency department staff, it could also be applicable in other low-resource settings, such as military bases, search and rescue stations, and arctic travel and tourism infirmaries. PMID:29511605

Virtual Simulated Care Coordination Rounds for Nursing Students.

PubMed

Badowski, Donna M

Implementation of the Affordable Care Act has nursing education reflecting on paradigm shifts in order to prepare nursing students for the evolving health care environment. The traditional focus of nursing education on nursing care in acute care settings does not provide learning experiences in care coordination and transitional care management skills. Virtual simulated care coordination rounds, using the National League for Nursing Advancing Care Excellence resources, offer nursing students an innovative experience in care coordination and transition care management.

Managing the wildlife tourism commons.

PubMed

Pirotta, Enrico; Lusseau, David

2015-04-01

The nonlethal effects of wildlife tourism can threaten the conservation status of targeted animal populations. In turn, such resource depletion can compromise the economic viability of the industry. Therefore, wildlife tourism exploits resources that can become common pool and that should be managed accordingly. We used a simulation approach to test whether different management regimes (tax, tax and subsidy, cap, cap and trade) could provide socioecologically sustainable solutions. Such schemes are sensitive to errors in estimated management targets. We determined the sensitivity of each scenario to various realistic uncertainties in management implementation and in our knowledge of the population. Scenarios where time quotas were enforced using a tax and subsidy approach, or they were traded between operators were more likely to be sustainable. Importantly, sustainability could be achieved even when operators were assumed to make simple rational economic decisions. We suggest that a combination of the two regimes might offer a robust solution, especially on a small spatial scale and under the control of a self-organized, operator-level institution. Our simulation platform could be parameterized to mimic local conditions and provide a test bed for experimenting different governance solutions in specific case studies.

STORM WATER MANAGEMENT MODEL QUALITY ASSURANCE REPORT: DYNAMIC WAVE FLOW ROUTING

EPA Science Inventory

The Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) is a computer-based tool for simulating storm water runoff quantity and quality from primarily urban areas. In 2002 the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Water Supply and Water Resources Division partnered with the consulting firm CDM ...

USEPA’s Future Role for the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM)

EPA Science Inventory

USEPA's Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) is a heavily used model to simulate stormwater and wastewater infrastructure performance as an enhanced decision making tool. SWMM I was released in 1971 by the Metcalf and Eddy, Water Resources Engineers, and the University of Florida...

USEPA’s Future Role for the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM)

EPA Science Inventory

USEPA’s Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) is a heavily used model to simulate stormwater and wastewater infrastructure performance as an enhanced decision making tool. SWMM I was released in 1971 by the Metcalf and Eddy, Water Resources Engineers, and the University of F...

Potential impacts of human water management on the European heat wave 2003 using fully integrated bedrock-to-atmosphere simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keune, Jessica; Sulis, Mauro; Kollet, Stefan; Wada, Yoshihide

2017-04-01

Recent studies indicate that anthropogenic impacts on the terrestrial water cycle lead to a redistribution of water resources in space and time, can trigger land-atmosphere feedbacks, such as the soil moisture-precipitation feedback, and potentially enhance convection and precipitation. Yet, these studies do not consider the full hydrologic cycle from the bedrock to the atmosphere or apply simplified hydrologic models, neglecting the connection of irrigation to water withdrawal and groundwater depletion. Thus, there is a need to incorporate water resource management in 3D hydrologic models coupled to earth system models. This study addresses the impact of water resource management, i.e. irrigation and groundwater abstraction, on land-atmosphere feedbacks through the terrestrial hydrologic cycle in a physics-based soil-vegetation-atmosphere system simulating 3D groundwater dynamics at the continental scale. The integrated Terrestrial Systems Modeling Platform, TerrSysMP, consisting of the three-dimensional subsurface and overland flow model ParFlow, the Community Land Model CLM3.5 and the numerical weather prediction model COSMO of the German Weather Service, is set up over the European CORDEX domain in 0.11° resolution. The model closes the terrestrial water and energy cycles from aquifers into the atmosphere. Anthropogenic impacts are considered by applying actual daily estimates of irrigation and groundwater abstraction from Wada et al. (2012, 2016), as a source at the land surface and explicit removal of groundwater from aquifer storage, respectively. Simulations of the fully coupled system are performed over the 2003 European heat wave and compared to a reference simulation, which does not consider human interactions in the terrestrial water cycle. We study the space and time characteristics and evolution of temperature extremes, and soil moisture and precipitation anomalies influenced by human water management during the heat wave. A first set of simulations utilizes the spectral nudging technique to keep the large-scale circulation consistent to the driving ERA-Interim reanalysis and examines the direct and local feedback pathway, along which irrigation cools the land surface, enhances evapotranspiration and increases the total atmospheric water vapor, which may induce local precipitation. A second set of simulations without spectral nudging addresses the indirect feedback, where the atmospheric circulation is modified indirectly by irrigation. Simulations are evaluated over a range of spatial and temporal scales, i.e. from daily to seasonal variations. Results indicate systematic responses at the land surface, but a strong non-linearity of the local feedback affecting tropospheric processes and the occurrence of precipitation, and hence emphasize the need to integrate human water management in regional climate simulations. References: Wada, Y., L. P. H van Beek, and M. F. P. Bierkens (2012), Nonsustainable groundwater sustaining irrigation: A global assessment, Water Resources Research, 48, W00L06, doi: 10.1029/2011WR010562. Wada, Y., I. E. M. de Graaf, and L. P. H. van Beek (2016), High-resolution modeling of human and climate impacts on global water resources, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 8, 735-763, doi: 10.1002/2015MS000618.

Maintenance Resources Evaluation Technique.

DTIC Science & Technology

1999-03-01

variable Z; P-6 BIBLIOGRAPHY Argentine Air Force. Reglamento de Conduction Logistica RAC 9 (Logistics Management Regulation). Estado Mayor General de ...other hand, too many resources are expensive to acquire and maintain and difficult to transport . 1-1 Sizing the means needed to accomplish its...functional areas (maintenance, supply/inventory, transportation , etc), methodologies of operations research (simulation, mathematical programming

Methods and tools to simulate the effect of economic instruments in complex water resources systems. Application to the Jucar river basin.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lopez-Nicolas, Antonio; Pulido-Velazquez, Manuel

2014-05-01

The main challenge of the BLUEPRINT to safeguard Europe's water resources (EC, 2012) is to guarantee that enough good quality water is available for people's needs, the economy and the environment. In this sense, economic policy instruments such as water pricing policies and water markets can be applied to enhance efficient use of water. This paper presents a method based on hydro-economic tools to assess the effect of economic instruments on water resource systems. Hydro-economic models allow integrated analysis of water supply, demand and infrastructure operation at the river basin scale, by simultaneously combining engineering, hydrologic and economic aspects of water resources management. The method made use of the simulation and optimization hydroeconomic tools SIMGAMS and OPTIGAMS. The simulation tool SIMGAMS allocates water resources among the users according to priorities and operating rules, and evaluate economic scarcity costs of the system by using economic demand functions. The model's objective function is designed so that the system aims to meet the operational targets (ranked according to priorities) at each month while following the system operating rules. The optimization tool OPTIGAMS allocates water resources based on an economic efficiency criterion: maximize net benefits, or alternatively, minimizing the total water scarcity and operating cost of water use. SIMGAS allows to simulate incentive water pricing policies based on marginal resource opportunity costs (MROC; Pulido-Velazquez et al., 2013). Storage-dependent step pricing functions are derived from the time series of MROC values at a certain reservoir in the system. These water pricing policies are defined based on water availability in the system (scarcity pricing), so that when water storage is high, the MROC is low, while low storage (drought periods) will be associated to high MROC and therefore, high prices. We also illustrate the use of OPTIGAMS to simulate the effect of ideal water markets by economic optimization, without considering the potential effect of transaction costs. These methods and tools have been applied to the Jucar River basin (Spain). The results show the potential of economic instruments in setting incentives for a more efficient management of water resources systems. Acknowledgments: The study has been partially supported by the European Community 7th Framework Project (GENESIS project, n. 226536), SAWARES (Plan Nacional I+D+i 2008-2011, CGL2009-13238-C02-01 and C02-02), SCARCE (Consolider-Ingenio 2010 CSD2009-00065) of the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness; and EC 7th Framework Project ENHANCE (n. 308438) Reference: Pulido-Velazquez, M., Alvarez-Mendiola, E., and Andreu, J., 2013. Design of Efficient Water Pricing Policies Integrating Basinwide Resource Opportunity Costs. J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage., 139(5): 583-592.

A risk-based framework to assess long-term effects of policy and water supply changes on water resources systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hassanzadeh, Elmira; Elshorbagy, Amin; Wheater, Howard; Gober, Patricia

2015-04-01

Climate uncertainty can affect water resources availability and management decisions. Sustainable water resources management therefore requires evaluation of policy and management decisions under a wide range of possible future water supply conditions. This study proposes a risk-based framework to integrate water supply uncertainty into a forward-looking decision making context. To apply this framework, a stochastic reconstruction scheme is used to generate a large ensemble of flow series. For the Rocky Mountain basins considered here, two key characteristics of the annual hydrograph are its annual flow volume and the timing of the seasonal flood peak. These are perturbed to represent natural randomness and potential changes due to future climate. 30-year series of perturbed flows are used as input to the SWAMP model - an integrated water resources model that simulates regional water supply-demand system and estimates economic productivity of water and other sustainability indicators, including system vulnerability and resilience. The simulation results are used to construct 2D-maps of net revenue of a particular water sector; e.g., hydropower, or for all sectors combined. Each map cell represents a risk scenario of net revenue based on a particular annual flow volume, timing of the peak flow, and 200 stochastic realizations of flow series. This framework is demonstrated for a water resources system in the Saskatchewan River Basin (SaskRB) in Saskatchewan, Canada. Critical historical drought sequences, derived from tree-ring reconstructions of several hundred years of annual river flows, are used to evaluate the system's performance (net revenue risk) under extremely low flow conditions and also to locate them on the previously produced 2D risk maps. This simulation and analysis framework is repeated under various reservoir operation strategies (e.g., maximizing flood protection or maximizing water supply security); development proposals, such as irrigation expansion; and change in energy prices. Such risk-based analysis demonstrates relative reduction/increase of risk associated with management and policy decisions and allow decision makers to explore the relative importance of policy versus natural water supply change in a water resources system.

Remote sensing techniques in cultural resource management archaeology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, Jay K.; Haley, Bryan S.

2003-04-01

Cultural resource management archaeology in the United States concerns compliance with legislation set in place to protect archaeological resources from the impact of modern activities. Traditionally, surface collection, shovel testing, test excavation, and mechanical stripping are used in these projects. These methods are expensive, time consuming, and may poorly represent the features within archaeological sites. The use of remote sensing techniques in cultural resource management archaeology may provide an answer to these problems. Near-surface geophysical techniques, including magnetometry, resistivity, electromagnetics, and ground penetrating radar, have proven to be particularly successful at efficiently locating archaeological features. Research has also indicated airborne and satellite remote sensing may hold some promise in the future for large-scale archaeological survey, although this is difficult in many areas of the world where ground cover reflect archaeological features in an indirect manner. A cost simulation of a hypothetical data recovery project on a large complex site in Mississippi is presented to illustrate the potential advantages of remote sensing in a cultural resource management setting. The results indicate these techniques can save a substantial amount of time and money for these projects.

Two-dimensional hydrodynamic modeling to quantify effects of peak-flow management on channel morphology and salmon-spawning habitat in the Cedar River, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Czuba, Christiana; Czuba, Jonathan A.; Gendaszek, Andrew S.; Magirl, Christopher S.

2010-01-01

The Cedar River in Washington State originates on the western slope of the Cascade Range and provides the City of Seattle with most of its drinking water, while also supporting a productive salmon habitat. Water-resource managers require detailed information on how best to manage high-flow releases from Chester Morse Lake, a large reservoir on the Cedar River, during periods of heavy precipitation to minimize flooding, while mitigating negative effects on fish populations. Instream flow-management practices include provisions for adaptive management to promote and maintain healthy aquatic habitat in the river system. The current study is designed to understand the linkages between peak flow characteristics, geomorphic processes, riverine habitat, and biological responses. Specifically, two-dimensional hydrodynamic modeling is used to simulate and quantify the effects of the peak-flow magnitude, duration, and frequency on the channel morphology and salmon-spawning habitat. Two study reaches, representative of the typical geomorphic and ecologic characteristics of the Cedar River, were selected for the modeling. Detailed bathymetric data, collected with a real-time kinematic global positioning system and an acoustic Doppler current profiler, were combined with a LiDAR-derived digital elevation model in the overbank area to develop a computational mesh. The model is used to simulate water velocity, benthic shear stress, flood inundation, and morphologic changes in the gravel-bedded river under the current and alternative flood-release strategies. Simulations of morphologic change and salmon-redd scour by floods of differing magnitude and duration enable water-resource managers to incorporate model simulation results into adaptive management of peak flows in the Cedar River. PDF version of a presentation on hydrodynamic modelling in the Cedar River in Washington state. Presented at the American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting 2010.

Clinic Workflow Simulations using Secondary EHR Data

PubMed Central

Hribar, Michelle R.; Biermann, David; Read-Brown, Sarah; Reznick, Leah; Lombardi, Lorinna; Parikh, Mansi; Chamberlain, Winston; Yackel, Thomas R.; Chiang, Michael F.

2016-01-01

Clinicians today face increased patient loads, decreased reimbursements and potential negative productivity impacts of using electronic health records (EHR), but have little guidance on how to improve clinic efficiency. Discrete event simulation models are powerful tools for evaluating clinical workflow and improving efficiency, particularly when they are built from secondary EHR timing data. The purpose of this study is to demonstrate that these simulation models can be used for resource allocation decision making as well as for evaluating novel scheduling strategies in outpatient ophthalmology clinics. Key findings from this study are that: 1) secondary use of EHR timestamp data in simulation models represents clinic workflow, 2) simulations provide insight into the best allocation of resources in a clinic, 3) simulations provide critical information for schedule creation and decision making by clinic managers, and 4) simulation models built from EHR data are potentially generalizable. PMID:28269861

MAINTENANCE MANAGEMENT ACCOUNTING SYSTEM OF WASTE WATER DISPOSAL SYSTEMS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hori, Michihiro; Tsuruta, Takashi; Kaito, Kiyoyuki; Kobayashi, Kiyoshi

Sewage works facilities consist of various assets groups. And there are many kinds of financial resources. In order to optimize the maintenance plan, and to secure the stability and sustainability of sewage works management, it is necessary to carry out financial simulation based on the life-cycle cost analysis. Furthermore, it is important to develop management accounting system that is interlinked with the financial accounting system, because many sewage administration bodies have their financial accounting systems as public enterprises. In this paper, a management accounting system, which is designed to provide basic information for asset management of sewage works facilities, is presented. Also the applicability of the management accounting system presented in this paper is examined through financial simulations.

Simulating land-use changes and stormwater-detention basins and evaluating their effect on peak streamflows and stream-water quality in Irondequoit Creek basin, New York—A user's manual for HSPF and GenScn

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coon, William F.

2003-01-01

A computer model of hydrologic and water-quality processes of the Irondequoit Creek basin in Monroe and Ontario Counties, N.Y., was developed during 2000-02 to enable water-resources managers to simulate the effects of future development and stormwater-detention basins on peak flows and water quality of Irondequoit Creek and its tributaries. The model was developed with the program Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) such that proposed or hypothetical land-use changes and instream stormwater-detention basins could be simulated, and their effects on peak flows and loads of total suspended solids, total phosphorus, ammonia-plus-organic nitrogen, and nitrate-plus-nitrite nitrogen could be analyzed, through an interactive computer program known as Generation and Analysis of Model Simulation Scenarios for Watersheds (GenScn). This report is a user's manual written to guide the Irondequoit Creek Watershed Collaborative in (1) the creation of land-use and flow-detention scenarios for simulation by the HSPF model, and (2) the use of GenScn to analyze the results of these simulations. These analyses can, in turn, aid the group in making basin-wide water-resources-management decisions.

Numerical simulation of groundwater and surface-water interactions in the Big River Management Area, central Rhode Island

USGS Publications Warehouse

Masterson, John P.; Granato, Gregory E.

2013-01-01

The Rhode Island Water Resources Board is considering use of groundwater resources from the Big River Management Area in central Rhode Island because increasing water demands in Rhode Island may exceed the capacity of current sources. Previous water-resources investigations in this glacially derived, valley-fill aquifer system have focused primarily on the effects of potential groundwater-pumping scenarios on streamflow depletion; however, the effects of groundwater withdrawals on wetlands have not been assessed, and such assessments are a requirement of the State’s permitting process to develop a water supply in this area. A need for an assessment of the potential effects of pumping on wetlands in the Big River Management Area led to a cooperative agreement in 2008 between the Rhode Island Water Resources Board, the U.S. Geological Survey, and the University of Rhode Island. This partnership was formed with the goal of developing methods for characterizing wetland vegetation, soil type, and hydrologic conditions, and monitoring and modeling water levels for pre- and post-water-supply development to assess potential effects of groundwater withdrawals on wetlands. This report describes the hydrogeology of the area and the numerical simulations that were used to analyze the interaction between groundwater and surface water in response to simulated groundwater withdrawals. The results of this analysis suggest that, given the hydrogeologic conditions in the Big River Management Area, a standard 5-day aquifer test may not be sufficient to determine the effects of pumping on water levels in nearby wetlands. Model simulations showed water levels beneath Reynolds Swamp declined by about 0.1 foot after 5 days of continuous pumping, but continued to decline by an additional 4 to 6 feet as pumping times were increased from a 5-day simulation period to a simulation period representative of long-term average monthly conditions. This continued decline in water levels with increased pumping time is related to the shift from the primary source of water to the pumped wells being derived from aquifer storage during the early-time (5 days) simulation to being derived more from induced infiltration from the flooded portion of the Big River (southernmost extent of the Flat River Reservoir) during the months of March through October or from captured groundwater discharge to this portion of the Big River when the downstream Flat River Reservoir is drained for weed control during the months of November through February, as was the case for the long-term monthly conditions.

Estimating the impact of enterprise resource planning project management decisions on post-implementation maintenance costs: a case study using simulation modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fryling, Meg

2010-11-01

Organisations often make implementation decisions with little consideration for the maintenance phase of an enterprise resource planning (ERP) system, resulting in significant recurring maintenance costs. Poor cost estimations are likely related to the lack of an appropriate framework for enterprise-wide pre-packaged software maintenance, which requires an ongoing relationship with the software vendor (Markus, M.L., Tanis, C., and Fenema, P.C., 2000. Multisite ERP implementation. CACM, 43 (4), 42-46). The end result is that critical project decisions are made with little empirical data, resulting in substantial long-term cost impacts. The product of this research is a formal dynamic simulation model that enables theory testing, scenario exploration and policy analysis. The simulation model ERPMAINT1 was developed by combining and extending existing frameworks in several research domains, and by incorporating quantitative and qualitative case study data. The ERPMAINT1 model evaluates tradeoffs between different ERP project management decisions and their impact on post-implementation total cost of ownership (TCO). Through model simulations a variety of dynamic insights were revealed that could assist ERP project managers. Major findings from the simulation show that upfront investments in mentoring and system exposure translate to long-term cost savings. The findings also indicate that in addition to customisations, add-ons have a significant impact on TCO.

Improving the Performance of Highly Constrained Water Resource Systems using Multiobjective Evolutionary Algorithms and RiverWare

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, R.; Kasprzyk, J. R.; Zagona, E. A.

2015-12-01

Instead of building new infrastructure to increase their supply reliability, water resource managers are often tasked with better management of current systems. The managers often have existing simulation models that aid their planning, and lack methods for efficiently generating and evaluating planning alternatives. This presentation discusses how multiobjective evolutionary algorithm (MOEA) decision support can be used with the sophisticated water infrastructure model, RiverWare, in highly constrained water planning environments. We first discuss a study that performed a many-objective tradeoff analysis of water supply in the Tarrant Regional Water District (TRWD) in Texas. RiverWare is combined with the Borg MOEA to solve a seven objective problem that includes systemwide performance objectives and individual reservoir storage reliability. Decisions within the formulation balance supply in multiple reservoirs and control pumping between the eastern and western parts of the system. The RiverWare simulation model is forced by two stochastic hydrology scenarios to inform how management changes in wet versus dry conditions. The second part of the presentation suggests how a broader set of RiverWare-MOEA studies can inform tradeoffs in other systems, especially in political situations where multiple actors are in conflict over finite water resources. By incorporating quantitative representations of diverse parties' objectives during the search for solutions, MOEAs may provide support for negotiations and lead to more widely beneficial water management outcomes.

An Evolving Simulation/Gaming Process to Facilitate Adaptive Watershed Management in Northern Mountainous Thailand

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Barnaud, Cecile; Promburom, Tanya; Trebuil, Guy; Bousquet, Francois

2007-01-01

The decentralization of natural resource management provides an opportunity for communities to increase their participation in related decision making. Research should propose adapted methodologies enabling the numerous stakeholders of these complex socioecological settings to define their problems and identify agreed-on solutions. This article…

An individual-based modeling approach to simulating recreation use in wilderness settings

Treesearch

Randy Gimblett; Terry Daniel; Michael J. Meitner

2000-01-01

Landscapes protect biological diversity and provide unique opportunities for human-nature interactions. Too often, these desirable settings suffer from extremely high visitation. Given the complexity of social, environmental and economic interactions, resource managers need tools that provide insights into the cause and effect relationships between management actions...

Flight Training Technology for Regional/Commuter Airline Operations: Regional Airline Association/NASA Workshop Proceedings

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, A. T. (Editor); Lauber, J. K. (Editor)

1984-01-01

Programs which have been developed for training commercial airline pilots and flight crews are discussed. The concept of cockpit resource management and the concomitant issues of management techniques, interpersonal communication, psychological factors, and flight stress are addressed. Training devices and simulation techniques are reported.

A simulation/optimization model for groundwater resources management in the Afram Plains area, Ghana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yidana, S.M.

2008-01-01

A groundwater flow simulation model was developed using available hydrogeo logical data to A groundwater flow simulation model was developed using available hydrogeological data to describe groundwater flow in the Afram Plains area. A nonlinear optimization model was then developed and solved for the management of groundwater resources to meet irrigation and household needs. The objective was to maximize groundwater extraction for irrigation activities from the shallow aquifers of the southern Voltaian Sedimentary Basin that underly the area This would improve food security, raise the standard of living and ultimately alleviate poverty in the Afram Plains. The calibrated flow model is in tandem with the general hydrochemical evolution of groundwater in the area and fits the observed data with about a 98% degree of confidence. Groundwater resources may not be the limiting factor in the development of irrigated agriculture. Groundwater has tremendous potential to meet current and future irrigation needs. It was determined from this study that profit from maize irrigation in the Afram Plains area could rise from US$301, 000 in 2007 to over US$3.5 million by the end of the last management period (2013) as irrigation practice is improved, and the economic strength to increase the acreage for irrigation improves. Even with these margins of profit, the drawdown constraint was not reached in any of the management periods. It is expected that rechargefrom the irrigation water would reclaim the lost hydraulic head. The single significant constraint was the amount of land area that could be developed for irrigation in the area. The profit obtained per unit cubic meter of water used also improved over the same management period.

A comparison of geospatially modeled fire behavior and fire management utility of three data sources in the southeastern United States

Treesearch

LaWen T. Hollingsworth; Laurie L. Kurth; Bernard R. Parresol; Roger D. Ottmar; Susan J. Prichard

2012-01-01

Landscape-scale fire behavior analyses are important to inform decisions on resource management projects that meet land management objectives and protect values from adverse consequences of fire. Deterministic and probabilistic geospatial fire behavior analyses are conducted with various modeling systems including FARSITE, FlamMap, FSPro, and Large Fire Simulation...

Multidimensional Simulation Applied to Water Resources Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Camara, A. S.; Ferreira, F. C.; Loucks, D. P.; Seixas, M. J.

1990-09-01

A framework for an integrated decision aiding simulation (IDEAS) methodology using numerical, linguistic, and pictorial entities and operations is introduced. IDEAS relies upon traditional numerical formulations, logical rules to handle linguistic entities with linguistic values, and a set of pictorial operations. Pictorial entities are defined by their shape, size, color, and position. Pictorial operators include reproduction (copy of a pictorial entity), mutation (expansion, rotation, translation, change in color), fertile encounters (intersection, reunion), and sterile encounters (absorption). Interaction between numerical, linguistic, and pictorial entities is handled through logical rules or a simplified vector calculus operation. This approach is shown to be applicable to various environmental and water resources management analyses using a model to assess the impacts of an oil spill. Future developments, including IDEAS implementation on parallel processing machines, are also discussed.

A Queue Simulation Tool for a High Performance Scientific Computing Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spear, Carrie; McGalliard, James

2007-01-01

The NASA Center for Computational Sciences (NCCS) at the Goddard Space Flight Center provides high performance highly parallel processors, mass storage, and supporting infrastructure to a community of computational Earth and space scientists. Long running (days) and highly parallel (hundreds of CPUs) jobs are common in the workload. NCCS management structures batch queues and allocates resources to optimize system use and prioritize workloads. NCCS technical staff use a locally developed discrete event simulation tool to model the impacts of evolving workloads, potential system upgrades, alternative queue structures and resource allocation policies.

Predictable turn-around time for post tape-out flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Endo, Toshikazu; Park, Minyoung; Ghosh, Pradiptya

2012-03-01

A typical post-out flow data path at the IC Fabrication has following major components of software based processing - Boolean operations before the application of resolution enhancement techniques (RET) and optical proximity correctin (OPC), the RET and OPC step [etch retargeting, sub-resolution assist feature insertion (SRAF) and OPC], post-OPCRET Boolean operations and sometimes in the same flow simulation based verification. There are two objectives that an IC Fabrication tapeout flow manager wants to achieve with the flow - predictable completion time and fastest turn-around time (TAT). At times they may be competing. There have been studies in the literature modeling the turnaround time from historical data for runs with the same recipe and later using that to derive the resource allocation for subsequent runs. [3]. This approach is more feasible in predominantly simulation dominated tools but for edge operation dominated flow it may not be possible especially if some processing acceleration methods like pattern matching or hierarchical processing is involved. In this paper, we suggest an alternative method of providing target turnaround time and managing the priority of jobs while not doing any upfront resource modeling and resource planning. The methodology then systematically either meets the turnaround time need and potentially lets the user know if it will not as soon as possible. This builds on top of the Calibre Cluster Management (CalCM) resource management work previously published [1][2]. The paper describes the initial demonstration of the concept.

Development of FVSOntario: A Forest Vegetation Simulator Variant and application software for Ontario

Treesearch

Murray E. Woods; Donald C. E. Robinson

2008-01-01

The Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources is leading a government-industry partnership to develop an Ontario variant of the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS). Based on the Lake States variant and the PrognosisBC user-interface, the FVSOntarioproject is motivated by a need to model the impacts of intensive forest management...

Dynamic resource allocation in a hierarchical multiprocessor system: A preliminary study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ngai, Tin-Fook

1986-01-01

An integrated system approach to dynamic resource allocation is proposed. Some of the problems in dynamic resource allocation and the relationship of these problems to system structures are examined. A general dynamic resource allocation scheme is presented. A hierarchial system architecture which dynamically maps between processor structure and programs at multiple levels of instantiations is described. Simulation experiments were conducted to study dynamic resource allocation on the proposed system. Preliminary evaluation based on simple dynamic resource allocation algorithms indicates that with the proposed system approach, the complexity of dynamic resource management could be significantly reduced while achieving reasonable effective dynamic resource allocation.

Impact of a novel, resource appropriate resuscitation curriculum on Nicaraguan resident physician’s management of cardiac arrest

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Purpose: Project Strengthening Emergency Medicine, Investing in Learners in Latin America (SEMILLA) created a novel, language and resource appropriate course for the resuscitation of cardiac arrest for Nicaraguan resident physicians. We hypothesized that participation in the Project SEMILLA resuscitation program would significantly improve the physician’s management of simulated code scenarios. Methods: Thirteen Nicaraguan resident physicians were evaluated while managing simulated cardiac arrest scenarios before, immediately, and at 6 months after participating in the Project SEMILLA resuscitation program. This project was completed in 2014 in Leon, Nicaragua. The Cardiac Arrest Simulation Test (CASTest), a validated scoring system, was used to evaluate performance on a standardized simulated cardiac arrest scenario. Mixed effect logistic regression models were constructed to assess outcomes. Results: On the pre-course simulation exam, only 7.7% of subjects passed the test. Immediately post-course, the subjects achieved a 30.8% pass rate and at 6 months after the course, the pass rate was 46.2%. Compared with pre-test scores, the odds of passing the CASTest at 6 months after the course were 21.7 times higher (95% CI 4.2 to 112.8, P<0.001). Statistically significant improvement was also seen on the number of critical items completed (OR=3.75, 95% CI 2.71-5.19), total items completed (OR=4.55, 95% CI 3.4-6.11), and number of “excellent” scores on a Likert scale (OR=2.66, 95% CI 1.85-3.81). Conclusions: Nicaraguan resident physicians demonstrate improved ability to manage simulated cardiac arrest scenarios after participation in the Project SEMILLA resuscitation course and retain these skills. PMID:27378010

On inclusion of water resource management in Earth system models - Part 1: Problem definition and representation of water demand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nazemi, A.; Wheater, H. S.

2015-01-01

Human activities have caused various changes to the Earth system, and hence the interconnections between human activities and the Earth system should be recognized and reflected in models that simulate Earth system processes. One key anthropogenic activity is water resource management, which determines the dynamics of human-water interactions in time and space and controls human livelihoods and economy, including energy and food production. There are immediate needs to include water resource management in Earth system models. First, the extent of human water requirements is increasing rapidly at the global scale and it is crucial to analyze the possible imbalance between water demands and supply under various scenarios of climate change and across various temporal and spatial scales. Second, recent observations show that human-water interactions, manifested through water resource management, can substantially alter the terrestrial water cycle, affect land-atmospheric feedbacks and may further interact with climate and contribute to sea-level change. Due to the importance of water resource management in determining the future of the global water and climate cycles, the World Climate Research Program's Global Energy and Water Exchanges project (WRCP-GEWEX) has recently identified gaps in describing human-water interactions as one of the grand challenges in Earth system modeling (GEWEX, 2012). Here, we divide water resource management into two interdependent elements, related firstly to water demand and secondly to water supply and allocation. In this paper, we survey the current literature on how various components of water demand have been included in large-scale models, in particular land surface and global hydrological models. Issues of water supply and allocation are addressed in a companion paper. The available algorithms to represent the dominant demands are classified based on the demand type, mode of simulation and underlying modeling assumptions. We discuss the pros and cons of available algorithms, address various sources of uncertainty and highlight limitations in current applications. We conclude that current capability of large-scale models to represent human water demands is rather limited, particularly with respect to future projections and coupled land-atmospheric simulations. To fill these gaps, the available models, algorithms and data for representing various water demands should be systematically tested, intercompared and improved. In particular, human water demands should be considered in conjunction with water supply and allocation, particularly in the face of water scarcity and unknown future climate.

Using Simulation Education With Deliberate Practice to Teach Leadership and Resource Management Skills to Senior Resident Code Leaders.

PubMed

Burden, Amanda R; Pukenas, Erin W; Deal, Edward R; Coursin, Douglas B; Dodson, Gregory M; Staman, Gregory W; Gratz, Irwin; Torjman, Marc C

2014-09-01

Cardiopulmonary arrests are rare, high-stakes events that benefit from using crisis resource management (CRM). Simulation-based education with deliberate practice can promote skill acquisition. We assessed whether using simulation-based education to teach CRM would lead to improved performance, compared to a lecture format. We tested third-year internal medicine residents in simulated code scenarios. Participants were randomly assigned to simulation-based education with deliberate practice (SIM) group or lecture (LEC) group. We created a checklist of CRM critical actions (which includes announcing the diagnosis, asking for help/suggestions, and assigning tasks), and reviewed videotaped performances, using a checklist of skills and communications patterns to identify CRM skills and communication efforts. Subjects were tested in simulated code scenarios 6 months after the initial assessment. At baseline, all 52 subjects recognized distress, and 92% (48 of 52) called for help. Seventy-eight percent (41 of 52) did not succeed in resuscitating the simulated patient or demonstrate the CRM skills. After intervention, both groups (n  =  26 per group) improved. All SIM subjects announced the diagnosis compared to 65% LEC subjects (17 of 26, P  =  .01); 77% (20 of 26) SIM and 19% (5 of 26) LEC subjects asked for suggestions (P < .001); and 100% (26 of 26) SIM and 27% (7 of 26) LEC subjects assigned tasks (P < .001). The SIM intervention resulted in significantly improved team communication and cardiopulmonary arrest management. During debriefing, participants acknowledged the benefit of the SIM sessions.

System analysis in forest resources: proceedings of the 2003 symposium.

Treesearch

Michael Bevers; Tara M. Barrett

2005-01-01

The 2003 symposium of systems analysis in forest resources brought together researchers and practitioners who apply methods of optimization, simulation, management science, and systems analysis to forestry problems. This was the 10th symposium in the series, with previous conferences held in 1975, 1985, 1988, 1991, 1993, 1994, 1997, 2000, and 2002. The forty-two papers...

Consumer Education Resources Catalog. 16mm Films, Multi Media Kits, Video Cassettes, Simulations & Games, Printed Material.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jones, Sandra; Bannister, Rosella

This catalog lists teaching-learning resources available for preview at the Michigan Consumer Education Center. A subject index to multi-media identifies titles of films, video casettes, multi-media kits, and games under seven specific subjects. These are (1) Factors Affecting Consumer Behavior, (2) Money Management and Credit, (3) Buying and…

Optimal integrated management of groundwater resources and irrigated agriculture in arid coastal regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grundmann, J.; Schütze, N.; Heck, V.

2014-09-01

Groundwater systems in arid coastal regions are particularly at risk due to limited potential for groundwater replenishment and increasing water demand, caused by a continuously growing population. For ensuring a sustainable management of those regions, we developed a new simulation-based integrated water management system. The management system unites process modelling with artificial intelligence tools and evolutionary optimisation techniques for managing both water quality and water quantity of a strongly coupled groundwater-agriculture system. Due to the large number of decision variables, a decomposition approach is applied to separate the original large optimisation problem into smaller, independent optimisation problems which finally allow for faster and more reliable solutions. It consists of an analytical inner optimisation loop to achieve a most profitable agricultural production for a given amount of water and an outer simulation-based optimisation loop to find the optimal groundwater abstraction pattern. Thereby, the behaviour of farms is described by crop-water-production functions and the aquifer response, including the seawater interface, is simulated by an artificial neural network. The methodology is applied exemplarily for the south Batinah re-gion/Oman, which is affected by saltwater intrusion into a coastal aquifer system due to excessive groundwater withdrawal for irrigated agriculture. Due to contradicting objectives like profit-oriented agriculture vs aquifer sustainability, a multi-objective optimisation is performed which can provide sustainable solutions for water and agricultural management over long-term periods at farm and regional scales in respect of water resources, environment, and socio-economic development.

Computer simulation as a teaching aid in pharmacy management--Part 1: Principles of accounting.

PubMed

Morrison, D J

1987-06-01

The need for pharmacists to develop management expertise through participation in formal courses is now widely acknowledged. Many schools of pharmacy lay the foundations for future management training by providing introductory courses as an integral or elective part of the undergraduate syllabus. The benefit of such courses may, however, be limited by the lack of opportunity for the student to apply the concepts and procedures in a practical working environment. Computer simulations provide a means to overcome this problem, particularly in the field of resource management. In this, the first of two articles, the use of a computer model to demonstrate basic accounting principles is described.

U.S. Geological Survey Groundwater Modeling Software: Making Sense of a Complex Natural Resource

USGS Publications Warehouse

Provost, Alden M.; Reilly, Thomas E.; Harbaugh, Arlen W.; Pollock, David W.

2009-01-01

Computer models of groundwater systems simulate the flow of groundwater, including water levels, and the transport of chemical constituents and thermal energy. Groundwater models afford hydrologists a framework on which to organize their knowledge and understanding of groundwater systems, and they provide insights water-resources managers need to plan effectively for future water demands. Building on decades of experience, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) continues to lead in the development and application of computer software that allows groundwater models to address scientific and management questions of increasing complexity.

Sharing Service Resource Information for Application Integration in a Virtual Enterprise - Modeling the Communication Protocol for Exchanging Service Resource Information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamada, Hiroshi; Kawaguchi, Akira

Grid computing and web service technologies enable us to use networked resources in a coordinated manner. An integrated service is made of individual services running on coordinated resources. In order to achieve such coordinated services autonomously, the initiator of a coordinated service needs to know detailed service resource information. This information ranges from static attributes like the IP address of the application server to highly dynamic ones like the CPU load. The most famous wide-area service discovery mechanism based on names is DNS. Its hierarchical tree organization and caching methods take advantage of the static information managed. However, in order to integrate business applications in a virtual enterprise, we need a discovery mechanism to search for the optimal resources based on the given a set of criteria (search keys). In this paper, we propose a communication protocol for exchanging service resource information among wide-area systems. We introduce the concept of the service domain that consists of service providers managed under the same management policy. This concept of the service domain is similar to that for autonomous systems (ASs). In each service domain, the service information provider manages the service resource information of service providers that exist in this service domain. The service resource information provider exchanges this information with other service resource information providers that belong to the different service domains. We also verified the protocol's behavior and effectiveness using a simulation model developed for proposed protocol.

Optimally managing water resources in large river basins for an uncertain future

USGS Publications Warehouse

Roehl, Edwin A.; Conrads, Paul

2014-01-01

One of the challenges of basin management is the optimization of water use through ongoing regional economic development, droughts, and climate change. This paper describes a model of the Savannah River Basin designed to continuously optimize regulated flow to meet prioritized objectives set by resource managers and stakeholders. The model was developed from historical data by using machine learning, making it more accurate and adaptable to changing conditions than traditional models. The model is coupled to an optimization routine that computes the daily flow needed to most efficiently meet the water-resource management objectives. The model and optimization routine are packaged in a decision support system that makes it easy for managers and stakeholders to use. Simulation results show that flow can be regulated to substantially reduce salinity intrusions in the Savannah National Wildlife Refuge while conserving more water in the reservoirs. A method for using the model to assess the effectiveness of the flow-alteration features after the deepening also is demonstrated.

The Ozark Highlands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ethridge, Max

2009-01-01

The Ozark Highlands include diverse topographic, geologic, soil, and hydrologic conditions that support a broad range of habitat types. The landscape features rugged uplands - some peaks higher than 2,500 feet above sea level - with exposed rock and varying soil depths and includes extensive areas of karst terrain. The Highlands are characterized by extreme biological diversity and high endemism (uniqueness of species). Vegetation communities are dominated by open oak-hickory and shortleaf pine woodlands and forests. Included in this vegetation matrix is an assemblage of various types of fens, forests, wetlands, fluvial features, and carbonate and siliceous glades. An ever-growing human population in the Ozark Highlands has become very dependent on reservoirs constructed on major rivers in the region and, in some cases, groundwater for household and public water supply. Because of human population growth in the Highlands and increases in industrial and agricultural activities, not only is adequate water quantity an issue, but maintaining good water quality is also a challenge. Point and nonpoint sources of excessive nutrients are an issue. U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) partnership programs to monitor water quality and develop simulation tools to help stakeholders better understand strategies to protect the quality of water and the environment are extremely important. The USGS collects relevant data, conducts interpretive studies, and develops simulation tools to help stakeholders understand resource availability and sustainability issues. Stakeholders dependent on these resources are interested in and benefit greatly from evolving these simulation tools (models) into decision support systems that can be used for adaptive management of water and ecological resources. The interaction of unique and high-quality biological and hydrologic resources and the effects of stresses from human activities can be evaluated best by using a multidisciplinary approach that the USGS can provide. Information varying from defining baseline resource conditions to developing simulation models will help resource managers and users understand the human impact on resource sustainability. Varied expertise and experience in biological and water-resources activities across the entire Highlands make the USGS a valued collaborator in studies of Ozark ecosystems, streams, reservoirs, and groundwater. A large part of future success will depend on the involvement and active participation of key partners.

Communicating the role of genetics in management

Treesearch

Mary F. Mahalovich

1997-01-01

Three current issues serve as examples to convey the role of genetics in management. (1) Consequences of silvicultural systems on the genetic resource of tree species are limited to one generation of study and isozyme (qualitative) data. Results of simulated data for diameter (quantitative data) over several generations, illustrate the pitfalls of working towards...

Methods for integrated modeling of landscape change: Interior Northwest Landscape Analysis System.

Treesearch

Jane L. Hayes; Alan. A. Ager; R. James Barbour

2004-01-01

The Interior Northwest Landscape Analysis System (INLAS) links a number of resource, disturbance, and landscape simulations models to examine the interactions of vegetative succession, management, and disturbance with policy goals. The effects of natural disturbance like wildfire, herbivory, forest insects and diseases, as well as specific management actions are...

The Watershed and River Systems Management Program: Decision Support for Water- and Environmental-Resource Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leavesley, G.; Markstrom, S.; Frevert, D.; Fulp, T.; Zagona, E.; Viger, R.

2004-12-01

Increasing demands for limited fresh-water supplies, and increasing complexity of water-management issues, present the water-resource manager with the difficult task of achieving an equitable balance of water allocation among a diverse group of water users. The Watershed and River System Management Program (WARSMP) is a cooperative effort between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the Bureau of Reclamation (BOR) to develop and deploy a database-centered, decision-support system (DSS) to address these multi-objective, resource-management problems. The decision-support system couples the USGS Modular Modeling System (MMS) with the BOR RiverWare tools using a shared relational database. MMS is an integrated system of computer software that provides a research and operational framework to support the development and integration of a wide variety of hydrologic and ecosystem models, and their application to water- and ecosystem-resource management. RiverWare is an object-oriented reservoir and river-system modeling framework developed to provide tools for evaluating and applying water-allocation and management strategies. The modeling capabilities of MMS and Riverware include simulating watershed runoff, reservoir inflows, and the impacts of resource-management decisions on municipal, agricultural, and industrial water users, environmental concerns, power generation, and recreational interests. Forecasts of future climatic conditions are a key component in the application of MMS models to resource-management decisions. Forecast methods applied in MMS include a modified version of the National Weather Service's Extended Streamflow Prediction Program (ESP) and statistical downscaling from atmospheric models. The WARSMP DSS is currently operational in the Gunnison River Basin, Colorado; Yakima River Basin, Washington; Rio Grande Basin in Colorado and New Mexico; and Truckee River Basin in California and Nevada.

Analysis and Simulation of Traffic Control for Resource Management in DVB-Based Broadband Satellite Access Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Impemba, Ernesto; Inzerilli, Tiziano

2003-07-01

Integration of satellite access networks with the Internet is seen as a strategic goal to achieve in order to provide ubiquitous broadband access to Internet services in Next Generation Networks (NGNs). One of the main interworking aspects which has been most studied is an efficient management of satellite resources, i.e. bandwidth and buffer space, in order to satisfy most demanding application requirements as to delay control and bandwidth assurance. In this context, resource management in DVB-S/DVB-RCS satellite technologies, emerging technologies for broadband satellite access and transport of IP applications, is a research issue largely investigated as a means to provide efficient bi-directional communications across satellites. This is in particular one of the principal goals of the SATIP6 project, sponsored within the 5th EU Research Programme Framework, i.e. IST. In this paper we present a possible approach to efficiently exploit bandwidth, the most critical resource in a broadband satellite access network, while pursuing satisfaction of delay and bandwidth requirements for applications with guaranteed QoS through a traffic control architecture to be implemented in ground terminals. Performance of this approach is assessed in terms of efficient exploitation of the uplink bandwidth and differentiation and minimization of queuing delays for most demanding applications over a time-varying capacity. Opnet simulations is used as analysis tool.

A participatory approach to designing and enhancing integrated health information technology systems for veterans: protocol.

PubMed

Haun, Jolie N; Nazi, Kim M; Chavez, Margeaux; Lind, Jason D; Antinori, Nicole; Gosline, Robert M; Martin, Tracey L

2015-02-27

The Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) has developed health information technologies (HIT) and resources to improve veteran access to health care programs and services, and to support a patient-centered approach to health care delivery. To improve VA HIT access and meaningful use by veterans, it is necessary to understand their preferences for interacting with various HIT resources to accomplish health management related tasks and to exchange information. The objective of this paper was to describe a novel protocol for: (1) developing a HIT Digital Health Matrix Model; (2) conducting an Analytic Hierarchy Process called pairwise comparison to understand how and why veterans want to use electronic health resources to complete tasks related to health management; and (3) developing visual modeling simulations that depict veterans' preferences for using VA HIT to manage their health conditions and exchange health information. The study uses participatory research methods to understand how veterans prefer to use VA HIT to accomplish health management tasks within a given context, and how they would like to interact with HIT interfaces (eg, look, feel, and function) in the future. This study includes two rounds of veteran focus groups with self-administered surveys and visual modeling simulation techniques. This study will also convene an expert panel to assist in the development of a VA HIT Digital Health Matrix Model, so that both expert panel members and veteran participants can complete an Analytic Hierarchy Process, pairwise comparisons to evaluate and rank the applicability of electronic health resources for a series of health management tasks. This protocol describes the iterative, participatory, and patient-centered process for: (1) developing a VA HIT Digital Health Matrix Model that outlines current VA patient-facing platforms available to veterans, describing their features and relevant contexts for use; and (2) developing visual model simulations based on direct veteran feedback that depict patient preferences for enhancing the synchronization, integration, and standardization of VA patient-facing platforms. Focus group topics include current uses, preferences, facilitators, and barriers to using electronic health resources; recommendations for synchronizing, integrating, and standardizing VA HIT; and preferences on data sharing and delegation within the VA system. This work highlights the practical, technological, and personal factors that facilitate and inhibit use of current VA HIT, and informs an integrated system redesign. The Digital Health Matrix Model and visual modeling simulations use knowledge of veteran preferences and experiences to directly inform enhancements to VA HIT and provide a more holistic and integrated user experience. These efforts are designed to support the adoption and sustained use of VA HIT to support patient self-management and clinical care coordination in ways that are directly aligned with veteran preferences.

A Participatory Approach to Designing and Enhancing Integrated Health Information Technology Systems for Veterans: Protocol

PubMed Central

Nazi, Kim M; Chavez, Margeaux; Lind, Jason D; Antinori, Nicole; Gosline, Robert M; Martin, Tracey L

2015-01-01

Background The Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) has developed health information technologies (HIT) and resources to improve veteran access to health care programs and services, and to support a patient-centered approach to health care delivery. To improve VA HIT access and meaningful use by veterans, it is necessary to understand their preferences for interacting with various HIT resources to accomplish health management related tasks and to exchange information. Objective The objective of this paper was to describe a novel protocol for: (1) developing a HIT Digital Health Matrix Model; (2) conducting an Analytic Hierarchy Process called pairwise comparison to understand how and why veterans want to use electronic health resources to complete tasks related to health management; and (3) developing visual modeling simulations that depict veterans’ preferences for using VA HIT to manage their health conditions and exchange health information. Methods The study uses participatory research methods to understand how veterans prefer to use VA HIT to accomplish health management tasks within a given context, and how they would like to interact with HIT interfaces (eg, look, feel, and function) in the future. This study includes two rounds of veteran focus groups with self-administered surveys and visual modeling simulation techniques. This study will also convene an expert panel to assist in the development of a VA HIT Digital Health Matrix Model, so that both expert panel members and veteran participants can complete an Analytic Hierarchy Process, pairwise comparisons to evaluate and rank the applicability of electronic health resources for a series of health management tasks. Results This protocol describes the iterative, participatory, and patient-centered process for: (1) developing a VA HIT Digital Health Matrix Model that outlines current VA patient-facing platforms available to veterans, describing their features and relevant contexts for use; and (2) developing visual model simulations based on direct veteran feedback that depict patient preferences for enhancing the synchronization, integration, and standardization of VA patient-facing platforms. Focus group topics include current uses, preferences, facilitators, and barriers to using electronic health resources; recommendations for synchronizing, integrating, and standardizing VA HIT; and preferences on data sharing and delegation within the VA system. Conclusions This work highlights the practical, technological, and personal factors that facilitate and inhibit use of current VA HIT, and informs an integrated system redesign. The Digital Health Matrix Model and visual modeling simulations use knowledge of veteran preferences and experiences to directly inform enhancements to VA HIT and provide a more holistic and integrated user experience. These efforts are designed to support the adoption and sustained use of VA HIT to support patient self-management and clinical care coordination in ways that are directly aligned with veteran preferences. PMID:25803324

A water resources simulation gaming model for the Invitational Drought Tournament.

PubMed

Wang, K; Davies, E G R

2015-09-01

A system dynamics-based simulation gaming model, developed as a component of Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada's Invitational Drought Tournament (IDT; Hill et al., 2014), is introduced in this paper as a decision support tool for drought management at the river-basin scale. This IDT Model provides a comprehensive and integrated overview of drought conditions, and illustrates the broad effects of socio-economic drought and mitigation strategies. It is intended to provide a safe, user-friendly experimental environment with fast run-times for testing management options, and to promote collaborative decision-making and consensus building. Examples of model results from several recent IDT events demonstrate potential effects of drought and the short-to longer-term effectiveness of policies selected by IDT teams; such results have also improved teams' understanding of the complexity of water resources systems and their management trade-offs. The IDT Model structure and framework can also be reconfigured quickly for application to different river basins. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Addressing Hydro-economic Modeling Limitations - A Limited Foresight Sacramento Valley Model and an Open-source Modeling Platform

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harou, J. J.; Hansen, K. M.

2008-12-01

Increased scarcity of world water resources is inevitable given the limited supply and increased human pressures. The idea that "some scarcity is optimal" must be accepted for rational resource use and infrastructure management decisions to be made. Hydro-economic systems models are unique at representing the overlap of economic drivers, socio-political forces and distributed water resource systems. They demonstrate the tangible benefits of cooperation and integrated flexible system management. Further improvement of models, quality control practices and software will be needed for these academic policy tools to become accepted into mainstream water resource practice. Promising features include: calibration methods, limited foresight optimization formulations, linked simulation-optimization approaches (e.g. embedding pre-existing calibrated simulation models), spatial groundwater models, stream-aquifer interactions and stream routing, etc.. Conventional user-friendly decision support systems helped spread simulation models on a massive scale. Hydro-economic models must also find a means to facilitate construction, distribution and use. Some of these issues and model features are illustrated with a hydro-economic optimization model of the Sacramento Valley. Carry-over storage value functions are used to limit hydrologic foresight of the multi- period optimization model. Pumping costs are included in the formulation by tracking regional piezometric head of groundwater sub-basins. To help build and maintain this type of network model, an open-source water management modeling software platform is described and initial project work is discussed. The objective is to generically facilitate the connection of models, such as those developed in a modeling environment (GAMS, MatLab, Octave, "), to a geographic user interface (drag and drop node-link network) and a database (topology, parameters and time series). These features aim to incrementally move hydro- economic models in the direction of more practical implementation.

I PASS: an interactive policy analysis simulation system.

Treesearch

Doug Olson; Con Schallau; Wilbur Maki

1984-01-01

This paper describes an interactive policy analysis simulation system(IPASS) that can be used to analyze the long-term economic and demographic effects of alternative forest resource management policies. The IPASS model is a dynamic analytical tool that forecasts growth and development of an economy. It allows the user to introduce changes in selected parameters based...

CFES--California Fire Economics Simulator: A Computerized System for Wildland Fire Protection Planning

Treesearch

Jeremy S. Fried; J. Keith Gilless; Robert E. Martin

1987-01-01

The University of California's Department of Forestry and Resource Management, under contract with the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection, has developed and released the first version of the California Fire Economics Simulator (CFES). The current release is adapted from the Initial Action Assessment component of the USFS's National Fire...

Simulation-based training delivered directly to the pediatric cardiac intensive care unit engenders preparedness, comfort, and decreased anxiety among multidisciplinary resuscitation teams.

PubMed

Allan, Catherine K; Thiagarajan, Ravi R; Beke, Dorothy; Imprescia, Annette; Kappus, Liana J; Garden, Alexander; Hayes, Gavin; Laussen, Peter C; Bacha, Emile; Weinstock, Peter H

2010-09-01

Resuscitation of pediatric cardiac patients involves unique and complex physiology, requiring multidisciplinary collaboration and teamwork. To optimize team performance, we created a multidisciplinary Crisis Resource Management training course that addressed both teamwork and technical skill needs for the pediatric cardiac intensive care unit. We sought to determine whether participation improved caregiver comfort and confidence levels regarding future resuscitation events. We developed a simulation-based, in situ Crisis Resource Management curriculum using pediatric cardiac intensive care unit scenarios and unit-specific resuscitation equipment, including an extracorporeal membrane oxygenation circuit. Participants replicated the composition of a clinical team. Extensive video-based debriefing followed each scenario, focusing on teamwork principles and technical resuscitation skills. Pre- and postparticipation questionnaires were used to determine the effects on participants' comfort and confidence regarding participation in future resuscitations. A total of 182 providers (127 nurses, 50 physicians, 2 respiratory therapists, 3 nurse practitioners) participated in the course. All participants scored the usefulness of the program and scenarios as 4 of 5 or higher (5 = most useful). There was significant improvement in participants' perceived ability to function as a code team member and confidence in a code (P < .001). Participants reported they were significantly more likely to raise concerns about inappropriate management to the code leader (P < .001). We developed a Crisis Resource Management training program in a pediatric cardiac intensive care unit to teach technical resuscitation skills and improve team function. Participants found the experience useful and reported improved ability to function in a code. Further work is needed to determine whether participation in the Crisis Resource Management program objectively improves team function during real resuscitations. 2010 The American Association for Thoracic Surgery. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Models, Tools, and Databases for Land and Waste Management Research

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

These publicly available resources can be used for such tasks as simulating biodegradation or remediation of contaminants such as hydrocarbons, measuring sediment accumulation at superfund sites, or assessing toxicity and risk.

Training for teamwork through in situ simulations

PubMed Central

Sorensen, Asta; Poehlman, Jon; Bollenbacher, John; Riggan, Scott; Davis, Stan; Miller, Kristi; Ivester, Thomas; Kahwati, Leila

2015-01-01

In situ simulations allow healthcare teams to practice teamwork and communication as well as clinical management skills in a team's usual work setting with typically available resources and equipment. The purpose of this video is to demonstrate how to plan and conduct in situ simulation training sessions, with particular emphasis on how such training can be used to improve communication and teamwork. The video features an in situ simulation conducted at a labour and delivery unit in response to postpartum hemorrhage. PMID:26294962

The Timber Resource Inventory Model (TRIM): a projection model for timber supply and policy analysis.

Treesearch

P.L. Tedder; R.N. La Mont; J.C. Kincaid

1987-01-01

TRIM (Timber Resource Inventory Model) is a yield table projection system developed for timber supply projections and policy analysis. TRIM simulates timber growth, inventories, management and area changes, and removals over the projection period. Programs in the TRIM system, card-by-card descriptions of required inputs, table formats, and sample results are presented...

Crisis Team Management in a Scarce Resource Setting: Angkor Hospital for Children in Siem Reap, Cambodia.

PubMed

Henker, Richard Alynn; Henker, Hiroko; Eng, Hor; O'Donnell, John; Jirativanont, Tachawan

2017-01-01

A crisis team management (CTM) simulation course was developed by volunteers from Health Volunteers Overseas for physicians and nurses at Angkor Hospital for Children (AHC) in Siem Reap, Cambodia. The framework for the course was adapted from crisis resource management (1, 2), crisis team training (3), and TeamSTEPPs© models (4). The CTM course focused on teaching physicians and nurses on the development of team performance knowledge, skills, and attitudes. Challenges to providing this course at AHC included availability of simulation equipment, cultural differences in learning, and language barriers. The purpose of this project was to evaluate the impact of a CTM simulation course at AHC on attitudes and perceptions of participants on concepts related to team performance. Each of the CTM courses consisted of three lectures, including team performance concepts, communication, and debriefing followed by rotation through four simulation scenarios. The evaluation instrument used to evaluate the AHC CTM course was developed for Cambodian staff at AHC based on TeamSTEPPs© instruments evaluating attitude and perceptions of team performance (5). CTM team performance concepts included in lectures, debriefing sessions, and the evaluation instrument were: team structure, leadership, situation monitoring, mutual support, and communication. The Wilcoxon signed-rank test was used to analyze pre- and post-test paired data from participants in the course. Of the 54 participants completing the three CTM courses at AHC, 27 were nurses, 6 were anesthetists, and 21 were physicians. Attitude and perception scores were found to significantly improve ( p  < 0.05) for team structure, leadership, situation monitoring, and communication. Team performance areas that improved the most were: discussion of team performance, communication, and exchange of information. Teaching of non-technical skills can be effective in a setting with scarce resources in a Southeastern Asian country.

Multiplatform Mission Planning and Operations Simulation Environment for Adaptive Remote Sensors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, G.; Ball, C.; O'Brien, A.; Johnson, J. T.

2017-12-01

We report on the design and development of mission simulator libraries to support the emerging field of adaptive remote sensors. We will outline the current state of the art in adaptive sensing, provide analysis of how the current approach to performing observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) must be changed to enable adaptive sensors for remote sensing, and present an architecture to enable their inclusion in future OSSEs.The growing potential of sensors capable of real-time adaptation of their operational parameters calls for a new class of mission planning and simulation tools. Existing simulation tools used in OSSEs assume a fixed set of sensor parameters in terms of observation geometry, frequencies used, resolution, or observation time, which allows simplifications to be made in the simulation and allows sensor observation errors to be characterized a priori. Adaptive sensors may vary these parameters depending on the details of the scene observed, so that sensor performance is not simple to model without conducting OSSE simulations that include sensor adaptation in response to varying observational environment. Adaptive sensors are of significance to resource-constrained, small satellite platforms because they enable the management of power and data volumes while providing methods for multiple sensors to collaborate.The new class of OSSEs required to utilize adaptive sensors located on multiple platforms must answer the question: If the physical act of sensing has a cost, how does the system determine if the science value of a measurement is worth the cost and how should that cost be shared among the collaborating sensors?Here we propose to answer this question using an architecture structured around three modules: ADAPT, MANAGE and COLLABORATE. The ADAPT module is a set of routines to facilitate modeling of adaptive sensors, the MANAGE module will implement a set of routines to facilitate simulations of sensor resource management when power and data volume are constrained, and the COLLABORATE module will support simulations of coordination among multiple platforms with adaptive sensors. When used together these modules will for a simulation OSSEs that can enable both the design of adaptive algorithms to support remote sensing and the prediction of the sensor performance.

Cloudbus Toolkit for Market-Oriented Cloud Computing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buyya, Rajkumar; Pandey, Suraj; Vecchiola, Christian

This keynote paper: (1) presents the 21st century vision of computing and identifies various IT paradigms promising to deliver computing as a utility; (2) defines the architecture for creating market-oriented Clouds and computing atmosphere by leveraging technologies such as virtual machines; (3) provides thoughts on market-based resource management strategies that encompass both customer-driven service management and computational risk management to sustain SLA-oriented resource allocation; (4) presents the work carried out as part of our new Cloud Computing initiative, called Cloudbus: (i) Aneka, a Platform as a Service software system containing SDK (Software Development Kit) for construction of Cloud applications and deployment on private or public Clouds, in addition to supporting market-oriented resource management; (ii) internetworking of Clouds for dynamic creation of federated computing environments for scaling of elastic applications; (iii) creation of 3rd party Cloud brokering services for building content delivery networks and e-Science applications and their deployment on capabilities of IaaS providers such as Amazon along with Grid mashups; (iv) CloudSim supporting modelling and simulation of Clouds for performance studies; (v) Energy Efficient Resource Allocation Mechanisms and Techniques for creation and management of Green Clouds; and (vi) pathways for future research.

Building partnerships to produce actionable science to support climate-informed management decisions: North Central Climate Science Center example

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lackett, J.; Ojima, D. S.; McNeeley, S.

2017-12-01

As climate change impacts become more apparent in our environment, action is needed to enhance the social-ecological system resilience. Incorporating principles which lead to actionable research and project co-development, when appropriate, will facilitate building linkages between the research and the natural resource management communities. In order to develop strategies to manage for climatic and ecosystem changes, collaborative actions are needed between researchers and resource managers to apply appropriate knowledge of the ecosystem and management environments to enable feasible solutions and management actions to respond to climate change. Our team has been involved in developing and establishing a research and engagement center, the North Central Climate Science Center (NC CSC), for the US Department of Interior, to support the development and translation of pertinent climate science information to natural resource managers in the north central portion of the United States. The NC CSC has implemented a platform to support the Resource for Vulnerability Assessment, Adaptation, and Mitigation Projects (ReVAMP) with research, engagement, and training activities to support resource managers and researchers. These activities are aimed at the co-production of appropriate response strategies to climate change in the region, in particular to drought-related responses. Through this platform we, with other partners in the region, including the Department of Interior and the Department of Agriculture, are bringing various training tools, climate information, and management planning tools to resource managers. The implementation of ReVAMP has led to development of planning efforts which include a more explicit representation of climate change as a driver of drought events in our region. Scenario planning provides a process which integrates management goals with possible outcomes derived from observations and simulations of ecological impacts of climate change. Co-development of management options under these various scenarios have allowed for guidance about further research needed, observations needed to better monitor ecological conditions under climate changes, and adaptive management practices to increase resilience.

Framework to evaluate the worth of hydraulic conductivity data for optimal groundwater resources management in ecologically sensitive areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feyen, Luc; Gorelick, Steven M.

2005-03-01

We propose a framework that combines simulation optimization with Bayesian decision analysis to evaluate the worth of hydraulic conductivity data for optimal groundwater resources management in ecologically sensitive areas. A stochastic simulation optimization management model is employed to plan regionally distributed groundwater pumping while preserving the hydroecological balance in wetland areas. Because predictions made by an aquifer model are uncertain, groundwater supply systems operate below maximum yield. Collecting data from the groundwater system can potentially reduce predictive uncertainty and increase safe water production. The price paid for improvement in water management is the cost of collecting the additional data. Efficient data collection using Bayesian decision analysis proceeds in three stages: (1) The prior analysis determines the optimal pumping scheme and profit from water sales on the basis of known information. (2) The preposterior analysis estimates the optimal measurement locations and evaluates whether each sequential measurement will be cost-effective before it is taken. (3) The posterior analysis then revises the prior optimal pumping scheme and consequent profit, given the new information. Stochastic simulation optimization employing a multiple-realization approach is used to determine the optimal pumping scheme in each of the three stages. The cost of new data must not exceed the expected increase in benefit obtained in optimal groundwater exploitation. An example based on groundwater management practices in Florida aimed at wetland protection showed that the cost of data collection more than paid for itself by enabling a safe and reliable increase in production.

MASM: a market architecture for sensor management in distributed sensor networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Viswanath, Avasarala; Mullen, Tracy; Hall, David; Garga, Amulya

2005-03-01

Rapid developments in sensor technology and its applications have energized research efforts towards devising a firm theoretical foundation for sensor management. Ubiquitous sensing, wide bandwidth communications and distributed processing provide both opportunities and challenges for sensor and process control and optimization. Traditional optimization techniques do not have the ability to simultaneously consider the wildly non-commensurate measures involved in sensor management in a single optimization routine. Market-oriented programming provides a valuable and principled paradigm to designing systems to solve this dynamic and distributed resource allocation problem. We have modeled the sensor management scenario as a competitive market, wherein the sensor manager holds a combinatorial auction to sell the various items produced by the sensors and the communication channels. However, standard auction mechanisms have been found not to be directly applicable to the sensor management domain. For this purpose, we have developed a specialized market architecture MASM (Market architecture for Sensor Management). In MASM, the mission manager is responsible for deciding task allocations to the consumers and their corresponding budgets and the sensor manager is responsible for resource allocation to the various consumers. In addition to having a modified combinatorial winner determination algorithm, MASM has specialized sensor network modules that address commensurability issues between consumers and producers in the sensor network domain. A preliminary multi-sensor, multi-target simulation environment has been implemented to test the performance of the proposed system. MASM outperformed the information theoretic sensor manager in meeting the mission objectives in the simulation experiments.

A Multi-layer Dynamic Model for Coordination Based Group Decision Making in Water Resource Allocation and Scheduling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Wei; Zhang, Xingnan; Li, Chenming; Wang, Jianying

Management of group decision-making is an important issue in water source management development. In order to overcome the defects in lacking of effective communication and cooperation in the existing decision-making models, this paper proposes a multi-layer dynamic model for coordination in water resource allocation and scheduling based group decision making. By introducing the scheme-recognized cooperative satisfaction index and scheme-adjusted rationality index, the proposed model can solve the problem of poor convergence of multi-round decision-making process in water resource allocation and scheduling. Furthermore, the problem about coordination of limited resources-based group decision-making process can be solved based on the effectiveness of distance-based group of conflict resolution. The simulation results show that the proposed model has better convergence than the existing models.

Computer simulation of the cumulative effects of brushland fire-management policies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonnicksen, Thomas M.

1980-01-01

A mathematical model simulates the cumulative volume of debris produced from brushland watersheds. Application of this model to a 176-km2 (0.678 = mi2) watershed along the southern flank of the Central San Gabriel Mountains permits assessment of expected debris production associated with alternative fire-management policies. The political implications of simulated debris production are evaluated through a conceptual model that links interest groups to particular successional stages in brushland watersheds by means of the resources claimed by each group. It is concluded that in theory, a rotation burn policy would provide benefits to more interest groups concerned about southern California's brushland watersheds than does the current fire exclusion policy.

Filling the Gap: Simulation-based Crisis Resource Management Training for Emergency Medicine Residents.

PubMed

Parsons, Jessica R; Crichlow, Amanda; Ponnuru, Srikala; Shewokis, Patricia A; Goswami, Varsha; Griswold, Sharon

2018-01-01

In today's team-oriented healthcare environment, high-quality patient care requires physicians to possess not only medical knowledge and technical skills but also crisis resource management (CRM) skills. In emergency medicine (EM), the high acuity and dynamic environment makes CRM skills of physicians particularly critical to healthcare team success. The Accreditation Council of Graduate Medicine Education Core Competencies that guide residency program curriculums include CRM skills; however, EM residency programs are not given specific instructions as to how to teach these skills to their trainees. This article describes a simulation-based CRM course designed specifically for novice EM residents. The CRM course includes an introductory didactic presentation followed by a series of simulation scenarios and structured debriefs. The course is designed to use observational learning within simulation education to decrease the time and resources required for implementation. To assess the effectiveness in improving team CRM skills, two independent raters use a validated CRM global rating scale to measure the CRM skills displayed by teams of EM interns in a pretest and posttest during the course. The CRM course improved leadership, problem solving, communication, situational awareness, teamwork, resource utilization and overall CRM skills displayed by teams of EM interns. While the improvement from pretest to posttest did not reach statistical significance for this pilot study, the large effect sizes suggest that statistical significance may be achieved with a larger sample size. This course can feasibly be incorporated into existing EM residency curriculums to provide EM trainees with basic CRM skills required of successful emergency physicians. We believe integrating CRM training early into existing EM education encourages continued deliberate practice, discussion, and improvement of essential CRM skills.

CI-WATER HPC Model: Cyberinfrastructure to Advance High Performance Water Resources Modeling in the Intermountain Western U.S

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ogden, F. L.; Lai, W.; Douglas, C. C.; Miller, S. N.; Zhang, Y.

2012-12-01

The CI-WATER project is a cooperative effort between the Utah and Wyoming EPSCoR jurisdictions, and is funded through a cooperative agreement with the U.S. National Science Foundation EPSCoR. The CI-WATER project is acquiring hardware and developing software cyberinfrastructure (CI) to enhance accessibility of High Performance Computing for water resources modeling in the Western U.S. One of the components of the project is development of a large-scale, high-resolution, physically-based, data-driven, integrated computational water resources model, which we call the CI-WATER HPC model. The objective of this model development is to enable evaluation of integrated system behavior to guide and support water system planning and management by individual users, cities, or states. The model is first being tested in the Green River basin of Wyoming, which is the largest tributary to the Colorado River. The model will ultimately be applied to simulate the entire Upper Colorado River basin for hydrological studies, watershed management, economic analysis, as well as evaluation of potential changes in environmental policy and law, population, land use, and climate. In addition to hydrologically important processes simulated in many hydrological models, the CI-WATER HPC model will emphasize anthropogenic influences such as land use change, water resources infrastructure, irrigation practices, trans-basin diversions, and urban/suburban development. The model operates on an unstructured mesh, employing adaptive mesh at grid sizes as small as 10 m as needed- particularly in high elevation snow melt regions. Data for the model are derived from remote sensing sources, atmospheric models and geophysical techniques. Monte-Carlo techniques and ensemble Kalman filtering methodologies are employed for data assimilation. The model includes application programming interface (API) standards to allow easy substitution of alternative process-level simulation routines, and provide post-processing, visualization, and communication of massive amounts of output. The open-source CI-WATER model represents a significant advance in water resources modeling, and will be useful to water managers, planners, resource economists, and the hydrologic research community in general.

Dynamic Voltage Frequency Scaling Simulator for Real Workflows Energy-Aware Management in Green Cloud Computing

PubMed Central

Cotes-Ruiz, Iván Tomás; Prado, Rocío P.; García-Galán, Sebastián; Muñoz-Expósito, José Enrique; Ruiz-Reyes, Nicolás

2017-01-01

Nowadays, the growing computational capabilities of Cloud systems rely on the reduction of the consumed power of their data centers to make them sustainable and economically profitable. The efficient management of computing resources is at the heart of any energy-aware data center and of special relevance is the adaptation of its performance to workload. Intensive computing applications in diverse areas of science generate complex workload called workflows, whose successful management in terms of energy saving is still at its beginning. WorkflowSim is currently one of the most advanced simulators for research on workflows processing, offering advanced features such as task clustering and failure policies. In this work, an expected power-aware extension of WorkflowSim is presented. This new tool integrates a power model based on a computing-plus-communication design to allow the optimization of new management strategies in energy saving considering computing, reconfiguration and networks costs as well as quality of service, and it incorporates the preeminent strategy for on host energy saving: Dynamic Voltage Frequency Scaling (DVFS). The simulator is designed to be consistent in different real scenarios and to include a wide repertory of DVFS governors. Results showing the validity of the simulator in terms of resources utilization, frequency and voltage scaling, power, energy and time saving are presented. Also, results achieved by the intra-host DVFS strategy with different governors are compared to those of the data center using a recent and successful DVFS-based inter-host scheduling strategy as overlapped mechanism to the DVFS intra-host technique. PMID:28085932

Dynamic Voltage Frequency Scaling Simulator for Real Workflows Energy-Aware Management in Green Cloud Computing.

PubMed

Cotes-Ruiz, Iván Tomás; Prado, Rocío P; García-Galán, Sebastián; Muñoz-Expósito, José Enrique; Ruiz-Reyes, Nicolás

2017-01-01

Nowadays, the growing computational capabilities of Cloud systems rely on the reduction of the consumed power of their data centers to make them sustainable and economically profitable. The efficient management of computing resources is at the heart of any energy-aware data center and of special relevance is the adaptation of its performance to workload. Intensive computing applications in diverse areas of science generate complex workload called workflows, whose successful management in terms of energy saving is still at its beginning. WorkflowSim is currently one of the most advanced simulators for research on workflows processing, offering advanced features such as task clustering and failure policies. In this work, an expected power-aware extension of WorkflowSim is presented. This new tool integrates a power model based on a computing-plus-communication design to allow the optimization of new management strategies in energy saving considering computing, reconfiguration and networks costs as well as quality of service, and it incorporates the preeminent strategy for on host energy saving: Dynamic Voltage Frequency Scaling (DVFS). The simulator is designed to be consistent in different real scenarios and to include a wide repertory of DVFS governors. Results showing the validity of the simulator in terms of resources utilization, frequency and voltage scaling, power, energy and time saving are presented. Also, results achieved by the intra-host DVFS strategy with different governors are compared to those of the data center using a recent and successful DVFS-based inter-host scheduling strategy as overlapped mechanism to the DVFS intra-host technique.

Better Insight Into Water Resources Management With Integrated Hydrodynamic And Water Quality Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Debele, B.; Srinivasan, R.; Parlange, J.

2004-12-01

Models have long been used in water resources management to guide decision making and improve understanding of the system. Numerous models of different scales -spatial and temporal - are available. Yet, very few models manage to bridge simulations of hydrological and water quality parameters from both upland watershed and riverine system. Most water quality models, such as QUAL2E and EPD-RIV1 concentrate on the riverine system while CE-QUAL-W2 and WASP models focus on larger waterbodies, such as lakes and reservoirs. On the other hand, the original SWAT model, HSPF and other upland watershed hydrological models simulate agricultural (diffuse) pollution sources with limited number of processes incorporated to handle point source pollutions that emanate from industrial sectors. Such limitations, which are common in most hydrodynamic and water quality models undermine better understanding that otherwise could be uncovered by employing integrated hydrological and water quality models for both upland watershed and riverine system. The SWAT model is a well documented and verified hydrological and water quality model that has been developed to simulate the effects of various management scenarios on the health of the environment in terms of water quantity and quality. Recently, the SWAT model has been extended to include the simulation of hydrodynamic and water quality parameters in the river system. The extended SWAT model (ESWAT) has been further extended to run using diurnally varying (hourly) weather data and produce outputs at hourly timescales. This and other improvements in the ESWAT model have been documented in the current work. Besides, the results from two case studies in Texas will be reported.

Managing simulation-based training: A framework for optimizing learning, cost, and time

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richmond, Noah Joseph

This study provides a management framework for optimizing training programs for learning, cost, and time when using simulation based training (SBT) and reality based training (RBT) as resources. Simulation is shown to be an effective means for implementing activity substitution as a way to reduce risk. The risk profile of 22 US Air Force vehicles are calculated, and the potential risk reduction is calculated under the assumption of perfect substitutability of RBT and SBT. Methods are subsequently developed to relax the assumption of perfect substitutability. The transfer effectiveness ratio (TER) concept is defined and modeled as a function of the quality of the simulator used, and the requirements of the activity trained. The Navy F/A-18 is then analyzed in a case study illustrating how learning can be maximized subject to constraints in cost and time, and also subject to the decision maker's preferences for the proportional and absolute use of simulation. Solution methods for optimizing multiple activities across shared resources are next provided. Finally, a simulation strategy including an operations planning program (OPP), an implementation program (IP), an acquisition program (AP), and a pedagogical research program (PRP) is detailed. The study provides the theoretical tools to understand how to leverage SBT, a case study demonstrating these tools' efficacy, and a set of policy recommendations to enable the US military to better utilize SBT in the future.

Simulating and predicting snow and glacier meltwater to the runoff of the Upper Mekong River basin in Southwest China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Z.; Long, D.; Hong, Y.

2017-12-01

Snow and glacier meltwater in cryospheric regions replenishes groundwater and reservoir storage and is critical to water supply, hydropower development, agricultural irrigation, and ecological integrity. Accurate simulating and predicting snow and glacier meltwater is therefore fundamental to develop a better understanding of hydrological processes and water resource management for alpine basins and its lower reaches. The Upper Mekong River (or the Lancang River in China) as one of the most important transboundary rivers originating from the Tibetan Plateau (TP), features active dam construction and complicated water resources allocation of the stakeholders. Confronted by both climate change and significant human activities, it is imperative to examine contributions of snow and glacier meltwater to the total runoff and how it will change in the near future. This will greatly benefit hydropower development in the upper reach of the Mekong and better water resources allocation and management across the relevant countries. This study aims to improve snowfall and snow water equivalent (SWE) simulation using improved methods, and combines both modeling skill and remote sensing (i.e., passive microwave-based SWE, and satellite gravimetry-based total water storage) to quantify the contributions of snow and glacier meltwater there. In addition, the runoff of the Lancang River under a range of climate change scenarios is simulated using the improved modeling scheme to evaluate how climate change will impact hydropower development in the upper reaches.

Automating NEURON Simulation Deployment in Cloud Resources.

PubMed

Stockton, David B; Santamaria, Fidel

2017-01-01

Simulations in neuroscience are performed on local servers or High Performance Computing (HPC) facilities. Recently, cloud computing has emerged as a potential computational platform for neuroscience simulation. In this paper we compare and contrast HPC and cloud resources for scientific computation, then report how we deployed NEURON, a widely used simulator of neuronal activity, in three clouds: Chameleon Cloud, a hybrid private academic cloud for cloud technology research based on the OpenStack software; Rackspace, a public commercial cloud, also based on OpenStack; and Amazon Elastic Cloud Computing, based on Amazon's proprietary software. We describe the manual procedures and how to automate cloud operations. We describe extending our simulation automation software called NeuroManager (Stockton and Santamaria, Frontiers in Neuroinformatics, 2015), so that the user is capable of recruiting private cloud, public cloud, HPC, and local servers simultaneously with a simple common interface. We conclude by performing several studies in which we examine speedup, efficiency, total session time, and cost for sets of simulations of a published NEURON model.

Automating NEURON Simulation Deployment in Cloud Resources

PubMed Central

Santamaria, Fidel

2016-01-01

Simulations in neuroscience are performed on local servers or High Performance Computing (HPC) facilities. Recently, cloud computing has emerged as a potential computational platform for neuroscience simulation. In this paper we compare and contrast HPC and cloud resources for scientific computation, then report how we deployed NEURON, a widely used simulator of neuronal activity, in three clouds: Chameleon Cloud, a hybrid private academic cloud for cloud technology research based on the Open-Stack software; Rackspace, a public commercial cloud, also based on OpenStack; and Amazon Elastic Cloud Computing, based on Amazon’s proprietary software. We describe the manual procedures and how to automate cloud operations. We describe extending our simulation automation software called NeuroManager (Stockton and Santamaria, Frontiers in Neuroinformatics, 2015), so that the user is capable of recruiting private cloud, public cloud, HPC, and local servers simultaneously with a simple common interface. We conclude by performing several studies in which we examine speedup, efficiency, total session time, and cost for sets of simulations of a published NEURON model. PMID:27655341

Three-Dimension Visualization for Primary Wheat Diseases Based on Simulation Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shijuan, Li; Yeping, Zhu

Crop simulation model has been becoming the core of agricultural production management and resource optimization management. Displaying crop growth process makes user observe the crop growth and development intuitionisticly. On the basis of understanding and grasping the occurrence condition, popularity season, key impact factors for main wheat diseases of stripe rust, leaf rust, stem rust, head blight and powdery mildew from research material and literature, we designed 3D visualization model for wheat growth and diseases occurrence. The model system will help farmer, technician and decision-maker to use crop growth simulation model better and provide decision-making support. Now 3D visualization model for wheat growth on the basis of simulation model has been developed, and the visualization model for primary wheat diseases is in the process of development.

Identification of Barriers to Pediatric Care in Limited-Resource Settings: A Simulation Study.

PubMed

Shilkofski, Nicole; Hunt, Elizabeth A

2015-12-01

Eighty percent of the 10 million annual deaths in children aged <5 years in developing countries are estimated to be avoidable, with improvements in education for pediatric emergency management being a key factor. Education must take into account cultural considerations to be effective. Study objectives were: (1) to use simulation to identify factors posing barriers to patient care in limited resource settings (LRS); and (2) to understand how simulations in LRS can affect communication and decision-making processes. A qualitative study was conducted at 17 different sites in 12 developing countries in Asia, Latin America, and Africa. Data from observations of 68 in situ simulated pediatric emergencies were coded for thematic analysis. Sixty-two different "key informants" were interviewed regarding perceived benefit of simulations. Coding of observations and interviews yielded common themes: impact of culture on team hierarchy, impact of communication and language barriers on situational awareness, systematic emergency procedures, role delineation, shared cognition and resource awareness through simulation, logistic barriers to patient care, and use of recognition-primed decision-making by experienced clinicians. Changes in clinical environments were implemented as a result of simulations. Ad hoc teams in LRS face challenges in caring safely for patients; these include language and cultural barriers, as well as environmental and resource constraints. Engaging teams in simulations may promote improved communication, identification of systems issues and latent threats to target for remediation. There may be a role for training novices in use of recognition-primed or algorithmic decision-making strategies to improve rapidity and efficiency of decisions in LRS. Copyright © 2015 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

Science in 60 – Simulating Flames Helps Tame Future Wildfires

ScienceCinema

Lin, Rod

2018-01-16

FIRETEC presents a new way of studying fire and learning how to better manage and cope with it. The model provides additional scientific input for decisions by policymakers working in land management, water resources and energy. The team hopes it will eventually assist fire and fuel management operations. This research is done in partnership with the USDA Forest Service, Air Force Wildland Fire Center, INRA and Canadian Forest Service.

More Fight-Less Fuel: Reducing Fuel Burn through Ground Process Improvement

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-06-01

These joint government and commercial air operations management suites are fast, accurate, and offer many of 33 same tools as SPADE. However, the U.S...passing hour of the day. Simulating the operations at an airfield is similar to a host of related operations management problems including restaurant...flight line may yield significant fuel and cost reductions. Focusing on the efficient use of ground resources through air operations management in a

Mission Critical Computer Resources Management Guide

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-09-01

Support Analyzers, Management, Generators Environments Word Workbench Processors Showroom System Structure HO Compilers IMath 1OperatingI Functions I...Simulated Automated, On-Line Generators Support Exercises Catalog, Function Environments Formal Spec Libraries Showroom System Structure I ADA Trackers I...shown in Figure 13-2. In this model, showrooms of larger more capable piecesare developed off-line for later integration and use in multiple systems

Effects of using visualization and animation in presentations to communities about forest succession and fire behavior potential

Treesearch

Jane Kapler Smith; Donald E. Zimmerman; Carol Akerelrea; Garrett O' Keefe

2008-01-01

Natural resource managers use a variety of computer-mediated presentation methods to communicate management practices to the public. We explored the effects of using the Stand Visualization System to visualize and animate predictions from the Forest Vegetation Simulator-Fire and Fuels Extension in presentations explaining forest succession (forest growth and change...

Historical and cultural fires, tribal management and research issue in Northern California: Trails, fires and tribulations

Treesearch

Frank K. Lake

2013-01-01

Indigenous people’s detailed traditional knowledge about fire, although superficially referenced in various writings, has not for the most part been analyzed in detail or simulated by resource managers, wildlife biologists, and ecologists. . . . Instead, scientists have developed the principles and theories of fire ecology, fire behavior and effects models, and...

Land Cover Applications, Landscape Dynamics, and Global Change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tieszen, Larry L.

2007-01-01

The Land Cover Applications, Landscape Dynamics, and Global Change project at U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Center for Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) seeks to integrate remote sensing and simulation models to better understand and seek solutions to national and global issues. Modeling processes related to population impacts, natural resource management, climate change, invasive species, land use changes, energy development, and climate mitigation all pose significant scientific opportunities. The project activities use remotely sensed data to support spatial monitoring, provide sensitivity analyses across landscapes and large regions, and make the data and results available on the Internet with data access and distribution, decision support systems, and on-line modeling. Applications support sustainable natural resource use, carbon cycle science, biodiversity conservation, climate change mitigation, and robust simulation modeling approaches that evaluate ecosystem and landscape dynamics.

Sustainability of water-supply at military installations, Kabul Basin, Afghanistan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mack, Thomas J.; Chornack, Michael P.; Verstraeten, Ingrid M.; Linkov, Igor

2014-01-01

The Kabul Basin, including the city of Kabul, Afghanistan, is host to several military installations of Afghanistan, the United States, and other nations that depend on groundwater resources for water supply. These installations are within or close to the city of Kabul. Groundwater also is the potable supply for the approximately four million residents of Kabul. The sustainability of water resources in the Kabul Basin is a concern to military operations, and Afghan water-resource managers, owing to increased water demands from a growing population and potential mining activities. This study illustrates the use of chemical and isotopic analysis, groundwater flow modeling, and hydrogeologic investigations to assess the sustainability of groundwater resources in the Kabul Basin.Water supplies for military installations in the southern Kabul Basin were found to be subject to sustainability concerns, such as the potential drying of shallow-water supply wells as a result of declining water levels. Model simulations indicate that new withdrawals from deep aquifers may have less of an impact on surrounding community water supply wells than increased withdrawals from near- surface aquifers. Higher rates of recharge in the northern Kabul Basin indicate that military installations in that part of the basin may have fewer issues with long-term water sustainability. Simulations of groundwater withdrawals may be used to evaluate different withdrawal scenarios in an effort to manage water resources in a sustainable manner in the Kabul Basin.

Standard Lunar Regolith Simulants for Space Resource Utilization Technologies Development: Effects of Materials Choices

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sibille, Laurent; Carpenter, Paul K.

2006-01-01

As NASA turns its exploration ambitions towards the Moon once again, the research and development of new technologies for lunar operations face the challenge of meeting the milestones of a fastpace schedule, reminiscent of the 1960's Apollo program. While the lunar samples returned by the Apollo and Luna missions have revealed much about the Moon, these priceless materials exist in too scarce quantities to be used for technology development and testing. The need for mineral materials chosen to simulate the characteristics of lunar regoliths is a pressing issue that is being addressed today through the collaboration of scientists, engineers and NASA program managers. The issue of reproducing the properties of lunar regolith for research and technology development purposes was addressed by the recently held 2005 Workshop on Lunar Regolith Simulant Materials at Marshall Space Flight Center. The recommendation of the workshop of establishing standard simulant materials to be used in lunar technology development and testing will be discussed here with an emphasis on space resource utilization. The variety of techniques and the complexity of functional interfaces make these simulant choices critical in space resource utilization.

Airport Simulations Using Distributed Computational Resources

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McDermott, William J.; Maluf, David A.; Gawdiak, Yuri; Tran, Peter; Clancy, Daniel (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

The Virtual National Airspace Simulation (VNAS) will improve the safety of Air Transportation. In 2001, using simulation and information management software running over a distributed network of super-computers, researchers at NASA Ames, Glenn, and Langley Research Centers developed a working prototype of a virtual airspace. This VNAS prototype modeled daily operations of the Atlanta airport by integrating measured operational data and simulation data on up to 2,000 flights a day. The concepts and architecture developed by NASA for this prototype are integral to the National Airspace Simulation to support the development of strategies improving aviation safety, identifying precursors to component failure.

Training and Personnel Systems Technology R&D Program Description FY 1988/1989. Revision

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-05-20

scenario software /database, and computer generated imagery (CIG) subsystem resources; (d) investigation of feasibility of, and preparation of plans... computer language to Army flight simulator for demonstration and evaluation. The objective is to have flight simulators which use the same software as...the Automated Performance and Readiness Training System (APARTS), which is a computer software system which facilitates training management through

Clinical performance and patient outcome after simulation-based training in prevention and management of postpartum haemorrhage: an educational intervention study in a low-resource setting.

PubMed

Nelissen, Ellen; Ersdal, Hege; Mduma, Estomih; Evjen-Olsen, Bjørg; Twisk, Jos; Broerse, Jacqueline; van Roosmalen, Jos; Stekelenburg, Jelle

2017-09-11

Postpartum haemorrhage (PPH) is a major cause of maternal mortality. Prevention and adequate treatment are therefore important. However, most births in low-resource settings are not attended by skilled providers, and knowledge and skills of healthcare workers that are available are low. Simulation-based training effectively improves knowledge and simulated skills, but the effectiveness of training on clinical behaviour and patient outcome is not yet fully understood. The aim of this study was to assess the effect of obstetric simulation-based training on the incidence of PPH and clinical performance of basic delivery skills and management of PPH. A prospective educational intervention study was performed in a rural referral hospital in Tanzania. Sixteen research assistants observed all births with a gestational age of more than 28 weeks from May 2011 to June 2013. In March 2012 a half-day obstetric simulation-based training in management of PPH was introduced. Observations before and after training were compared. The main outcome measures were incidence of PPH (500-1000 ml and >1000 ml), use and timing of administration of uterotonic drugs, removal of placenta by controlled cord traction, uterine massage, examination of the placenta, management of PPH (>500 ml), and maternal and neonatal mortality at 24 h. Three thousand six hundred twenty two births before and 5824 births after intervention were included. The incidence of PPH (500-1000 ml) significantly reduced from 2.1% to 1.3% after training (effect size Cohen's d = 0.07). The proportion of women that received oxytocin (87.8%), removal of placenta by controlled cord traction (96.5%), and uterine massage after birth (93.0%) significantly increased after training (to 91.7%, 98.8%, 99.0% respectively). The proportion of women who received oxytocin as part of management of PPH increased significantly (before training 43.0%, after training 61.2%). Other skills in management of PPH improved (uterine massage, examination of birth canal, bimanual uterine compression), but these were not statistically significant. The introduction of obstetric simulation-based training was associated with a 38% reduction in incidence of PPH and improved clinical performance of basic delivery skills and management of PPH.

PRESTIGRIS: an operational system for water resources and droughts management on Tuscany, Central Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Campo, Lorenzo; Caparrini, Francesca; Castelli, Fabio

2013-04-01

In the last years the problems of water management faced by local administration due to the growing demand of the territory and to the changes in terms of availability became more and more important. Also in view of problems issued by the Climate Change, it is necessary to have the availability of information about the present and the future state of the water resources on the territory, both in terms of stress of the water bodies and of trends in the near-future. In this respect, an adequate management and planning of the water resources can make use of meteorological seasonal forecasts (one-three month) for the assessment of the primary sources of fresh water in a given region. The PRESTIGRIS project (PREvisioni STagionali Idrologiche per la Gestione della Risorsa Idrica e della Siccità - hydrologic seasonal forecasts for water resources and droughts management), implemented at the University of Florence in collaboration with Eumechanos Environmental Engineering and LaMMa (Laboratorio di Monitoraggio e Modellistica ambientale, Laboratory for Environmental Monitoring and Modeling), is aimed to provide hydrological seasonal forecasts on the territory of the Tuscany Region, Central Italy, basing on the seasonal meteorological forecasts available at different Weather Services (NOAA, IRI, etc.). The PRESTIGRIS system is based on a stochastic disaggregation of the monthly seasonal forecasts of minimum and maximum air temperature at the ground and of the total rainfall height. Through an analysis based on Principal Component Analysis (PCA) techniques, the forecasts are disaggregated in daily maps at a spatial resolution (500 m) compatible with a complete hydrological balance simulation, performed on the entire Tuscany region (about 22000 km2) by the distributed hydrological model MOBIDIC (MOdello di BIlancio Distribuito e Continuo), developed at the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering of the University of Florence. Given a single seasonal forecast, the system performs an ensemble of 50 hydrological simulations. Basing on the results of the simulations, significant quantiles of the main variables of interest (soil saturation, discharge flows in the stream network, evapotranspiration) are mapped on the territory. The results of the simulations for the year 2003, in particular during the severe drought occurred during the summer, are shown as an example of the capabilities of the system.

Human judgment vs. quantitative models for the management of ecological resources.

PubMed

Holden, Matthew H; Ellner, Stephen P

2016-07-01

Despite major advances in quantitative approaches to natural resource management, there has been resistance to using these tools in the actual practice of managing ecological populations. Given a managed system and a set of assumptions, translated into a model, optimization methods can be used to solve for the most cost-effective management actions. However, when the underlying assumptions are not met, such methods can potentially lead to decisions that harm the environment and economy. Managers who develop decisions based on past experience and judgment, without the aid of mathematical models, can potentially learn about the system and develop flexible management strategies. However, these strategies are often based on subjective criteria and equally invalid and often unstated assumptions. Given the drawbacks of both methods, it is unclear whether simple quantitative models improve environmental decision making over expert opinion. In this study, we explore how well students, using their experience and judgment, manage simulated fishery populations in an online computer game and compare their management outcomes to the performance of model-based decisions. We consider harvest decisions generated using four different quantitative models: (1) the model used to produce the simulated population dynamics observed in the game, with the values of all parameters known (as a control), (2) the same model, but with unknown parameter values that must be estimated during the game from observed data, (3) models that are structurally different from those used to simulate the population dynamics, and (4) a model that ignores age structure. Humans on average performed much worse than the models in cases 1-3, but in a small minority of scenarios, models produced worse outcomes than those resulting from students making decisions based on experience and judgment. When the models ignored age structure, they generated poorly performing management decisions, but still outperformed students using experience and judgment 66% of the time. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Optimal Management of Geothermal Heat Extraction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patel, I. H.; Bielicki, J. M.; Buscheck, T. A.

2015-12-01

Geothermal energy technologies use the constant heat flux from the subsurface in order to produce heat or electricity for societal use. As such, a geothermal energy system is not inherently variable, like systems based on wind and solar resources, and an operator can conceivably control the rate at which heat is extracted and used directly, or converted into a commodity that is used. Although geothermal heat is a renewable resource, this heat can be depleted over time if the rate of heat extraction exceeds the natural rate of renewal (Rybach, 2003). For heat extraction used for commodities that are sold on the market, sustainability entails balancing the rate at which the reservoir renews with the rate at which heat is extracted and converted into profit, on a net present value basis. We present a model that couples natural resource economic approaches for managing renewable resources with simulations of geothermal reservoir performance in order to develop an optimal heat mining strategy that balances economic gain with the performance and renewability of the reservoir. Similar optimal control approaches have been extensively studied for renewable natural resource management of fisheries and forests (Bonfil, 2005; Gordon, 1954; Weitzman, 2003). Those models determine an optimal path of extraction of fish or timber, by balancing the regeneration of stocks of fish or timber that are not harvested with the profit from the sale of the fish or timber that is harvested. Our model balances the regeneration of reservoir temperature with the net proceeds from extracting heat and converting it to electricity that is sold to consumers. We used the Non-isothermal Unconfined-confined Flow and Transport (NUFT) model (Hao, Sun, & Nitao, 2011) to simulate the performance of a sedimentary geothermal reservoir under a variety of geologic and operational situations. The results of NUFT are incorporated into the natural resource economics model to determine production strategies that maximize net present value given the performance of the geothermal resource.

Eco-informatics for decision makers advancing a research agenda

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cushing, J.B.; Wilson, T.; Brandt, L.; Gregg, V.; Spengler, S.; Borning, A.; Delcambre, L.; Bowker, G.; Frame, M.; Fulop, J.; Hert, C.; Hovy, E.; Jones, J.; Landis, E.; Schnase, J.L.; Schweik, C.; Sonntag, W.; ,

2005-01-01

Resource managers often face significant information technology (IT) problems when integrating ecological or environmental information to make decisions. At a workshop sponsored by the NSF and USGS in December 2004, university researchers, natural resource managers, and information managers met to articulate IT problems facing ecology and environmental decision makers. Decision making IT problems were identified in five areas: 1) policy, 2) data presentation, 3) data gaps, 4) tools, and 5) indicators. To alleviate those problems, workshop participants recommended specific informatics research in modeling and simulation, data quality, information integration and ontologies, and social and human aspects. This paper reports the workshop findings, and briefly compares these with research that traditionally falls under the emerging eco-informatics rubric. ?? Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2005.

[Simulation training in the management of obstetric emergencies. A review of the literature].

PubMed

Bogne, V; Kirkpatrick, C; Englert, Y

2014-01-01

To assess the value of simulation based training in the management of obstetric emergencies. A search by keywords: obstetrics, gynecology, simulation, drills, emergency training restricted to randomized trials led to a selection of eight articles. Shoulder dystocia simulation unmasked deficiencies in performing Mc Robert maneuver in nearly 20% of doctors in training as well as ineffective and potentially harmful maneuver such as pressure on the uterine fundus. Delivery of the impacted shoulder improved from 42.9% to 83.3% after simulation training leading to a shorter head to body delivery interval. In postpartum haemorrhage simulation, lack of knowledge on prostaglandins and alkaloids of ergot, delay to transfer the patient to the operating room (82% of cases) and a poor communication between different professionals were identified. Post simulation improvement was seen in knowledge, technical skills, team spirit and structured communication. In severe preeclampsia simulation, mistakes such as injection of undiluted magnesium sulphate, caesarean section on an unstable patient were identified and reduced by 75%. Management of magnesium sulphate toxicity was also improved after simulation training. This review confirms the potential of simulation in training health professionals on management of obstetrics emergencies. Although the integration of this training modality into the curriculum of health care professionals in obstetrics and gynaecology seems beneficial, questions on the cost, the minimum standard of facilities, type of mannequins, human resources and frequency of drills required to achieve the learning objectives remain unanswered.

Tether Dynamics Simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1987-01-01

The proceedings of the conference are presented. The objective was to provide a forum for the discussion of the structure and status of existing computer programs which are used to simulate the dynamics of a variety of tether applications in space. A major topic was different simulation models and the process of validating them. Guidance on future work in these areas was obtained from a panel discussion; the panel was composed of resource and technical managers and dynamic analysts in the tether field. The conclusions of this panel are also presented.

Evaluation of the sustainability of deep groundwater as an arsenic-safe resource in the Bengal Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Michael, H.A.; Voss, C.I.

2008-01-01

Tens of millions of people in the Bengal Basin region of Bangladesh and India drink groundwater containing unsafe concentrations of arsenic. This high-arsenic groundwater is produced from shallow (150 m where groundwater arsenic concentrations are nearly uniformly low, and many more wells are needed, however, the sustainability of deep, arsenic-safe ground-water has not been previously assessed. Deeper pumping could induce downward migration of dissolved arsenic, permanently destroying the deep resource. Here, it is shown, through quantitative, large-scale hydrogeologic analysis and simulation of the entire basin, that the deeper part of the aquifer system may provide a sustainable source of arsenic-safe water if its utilization is limited to domestic supply. Simulations provide two explanations for this result: deep domestic pumping only slightly perturbs the deep groundwater flow system, and substantial shallow pumping for irrigation forms a hydraulic barrier that protects deeper resources from shallow arsenic sources. Additional analysis indicates that this simple management approach could provide arsenic-safe drinking water to >90% of the arsenic-impacted region over a 1,000-year timescale. This insight may assist water-resources managers in alleviating one of the world's largest groundwater contamination problems. ?? 2008 by The National Academy of Sciences of the USA.

Secure Large-Scale Airport Simulations Using Distributed Computational Resources

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McDermott, William J.; Maluf, David A.; Gawdiak, Yuri; Tran, Peter; Clancy, Dan (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

To fully conduct research that will support the far-term concepts, technologies and methods required to improve the safety of Air Transportation a simulation environment of the requisite degree of fidelity must first be in place. The Virtual National Airspace Simulation (VNAS) will provide the underlying infrastructure necessary for such a simulation system. Aerospace-specific knowledge management services such as intelligent data-integration middleware will support the management of information associated with this complex and critically important operational environment. This simulation environment, in conjunction with a distributed network of supercomputers, and high-speed network connections to aircraft, and to Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), airline and other data-sources will provide the capability to continuously monitor and measure operational performance against expected performance. The VNAS will also provide the tools to use this performance baseline to obtain a perspective of what is happening today and of the potential impact of proposed changes before they are introduced into the system.

Water resource sensitivity from a Mediterranean perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lyon, S. W.; Klein, J.; Archibald, J. A.; Walter, T.

2012-12-01

The water cycle in semiarid environments is intimately connected to plant-water interactions making these regions sensitive to both future climatic changes and landuse alterations. This study explores the sensitivity of water resource availability from a Mediterranean perspective using the Navarino Environmental Observatory (NEO) in Costa Navarino, Greece as a large-scale laboratory for developing and testing the potential resource impacts of various landuse/climatic trajectories. Direct measurements of evapotranspiration were combined with Penman-Monteith estimates to compare water vapor flux variability across the gradient of current management conditions found within the NEO landscape. These range from native, non-managed vegetation to historic, traditionally managed agriculture to modern, actively managed recreational lands. These management conditions greatly impact the vertical flux of water vapor in this semiarid landscape. Our evapotranspiration estimates were placed into a process-based modeling framework to characterize the current state of regional water resource availability and simulate future trajectories (and the associated uncertainties) in response to landuse/climatic changes. This region is quite sensitive with regards to water cycle modifications due to the anthropogenic redistribution of water within and across the landscape. Such sensitivity typifies that expected for much of the Mediterranean region, highlighting the NEO as a potential key location for future observation and investigation.

Akuna: An Open Source User Environment for Managing Subsurface Simulation Workflows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Freedman, V. L.; Agarwal, D.; Bensema, K.; Finsterle, S.; Gable, C. W.; Keating, E. H.; Krishnan, H.; Lansing, C.; Moeglein, W.; Pau, G. S. H.; Porter, E.; Scheibe, T. D.

2014-12-01

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is investing in development of a numerical modeling toolset called ASCEM (Advanced Simulation Capability for Environmental Management) to support modeling analyses at legacy waste sites. ASCEM is an open source and modular computing framework that incorporates new advances and tools for predicting contaminant fate and transport in natural and engineered systems. The ASCEM toolset includes both a Platform with Integrated Toolsets (called Akuna) and a High-Performance Computing multi-process simulator (called Amanzi). The focus of this presentation is on Akuna, an open-source user environment that manages subsurface simulation workflows and associated data and metadata. In this presentation, key elements of Akuna are demonstrated, which includes toolsets for model setup, database management, sensitivity analysis, parameter estimation, uncertainty quantification, and visualization of both model setup and simulation results. A key component of the workflow is in the automated job launching and monitoring capabilities, which allow a user to submit and monitor simulation runs on high-performance, parallel computers. Visualization of large outputs can also be performed without moving data back to local resources. These capabilities make high-performance computing accessible to the users who might not be familiar with batch queue systems and usage protocols on different supercomputers and clusters.

Data collection for cooperative water resources modeling in the Lower Rio Grande Basin, Fort Quitman to the Gulf of Mexico.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Passell, Howard David; Pallachula, Kiran; Tidwell, Vincent Carroll

2004-10-01

Water resource scarcity around the world is driving the need for the development of simulation models that can assist in water resources management. Transboundary water resources are receiving special attention because of the potential for conflict over scarce shared water resources. The Rio Grande/Rio Bravo along the U.S./Mexican border is an example of a scarce, transboundary water resource over which conflict has already begun. The data collection and modeling effort described in this report aims at developing methods for international collaboration, data collection, data integration and modeling for simulating geographically large and diverse international watersheds, with a special focus onmore » the Rio Grande/Rio Bravo. This report describes the basin, and the data collected. This data collection effort was spatially aggregated across five reaches consisting of Fort Quitman to Presidio, the Rio Conchos, Presidio to Amistad Dam, Amistad Dam to Falcon Dam, and Falcon Dam to the Gulf of Mexico. This report represents a nine-month effort made in FY04, during which time the model was not completed.« less

NASA Lunar Regolith Simulant Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Edmunson, J.; Betts, W.; Rickman, D.; McLemore, C.; Fikes, J.; Stoeser, D.; Wilson, S.; Schrader, C.

2010-01-01

Lunar regolith simulant production is absolutely critical to returning man to the Moon. Regolith simulant is used to test hardware exposed to the lunar surface environment, simulate health risks to astronauts, practice in situ resource utilization (ISRU) techniques, and evaluate dust mitigation strategies. Lunar regolith simulant design, production process, and management is a cooperative venture between members of the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). The MSFC simulant team is a satellite of the Dust group based at Glenn Research Center. The goals of the cooperative group are to (1) reproduce characteristics of lunar regolith using simulants, (2) produce simulants as cheaply as possible, (3) produce simulants in the amount needed, and (4) produce simulants to meet users? schedules.

Emergency in the clinic: a simulation curriculum to improve outpatient safety.

PubMed

Espey, Eve; Baty, Gillian; Rask, John; Chungtuyco, Michelle; Pereda, Brenda; Leeman, Lawrence

2017-12-01

Emergency response skills are essential when events such as seizure, anaphylaxis, or hemorrhage occur in the outpatient setting. As services and procedures increasingly move outside the hospital, training to manage complications may improve outcomes. The objective of this study was to evaluate a simulation-based curriculum in outpatient emergency management skills with the outcome measures of graded objective performance and learner self-efficacy. This pre- and postcurriculum study enrolled residents and fellows in Obstetrics and Gynecology and Family Medicine in a simulation-based, outpatient emergency management curriculum. Learners completed self-efficacy questionnaires and were videotaped managing 3 medical emergency scenarios (seizure, over-sedation/cardiopulmonary arrest, and hemorrhage) in the simulation laboratory both before and after completion of the curriculum. Evaluators who were blinded to training level scored the simulation performance videotapes using a graded rubric with critical action checklists. Scenario scores were assigned in 5 domains and globally. Paired t-tests were used to determine differences pre- and postcurriculum. Thirty residents completed the curriculum and pre- and postcurriculum testing. Subjects' objective performance scores improved in all 5 domains (P<.05) in all scenarios. When scores were stratified by level of training, all participants demonstrated global improvement. When scores were stratified by previous outpatient simulation experience, subjects with previous experience improved in all but management of excess sedation. Pre- and postcurriculum self-efficacy evaluations demonstrated improvement in all 7 measured areas: confidence, use of appropriate resources, communication skills, complex airway management, bag mask ventilation, resuscitation, and hemorrhage management. Self-efficacy assessment showed improvement in confidence managing outpatient emergencies (P=.001) and ability to communicate well in emergency situations (P<.001). A simulation-based curriculum improved both self-efficacy and objectively rated performance scores in management of outpatient medical emergencies. Simulation-based curricula should be incorporated into residency education. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Modeling and Simulation Resource Repository (MSRR)(System Engineering/Integrated M&S Management Approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Milroy, Audrey; Hale, Joe

2006-01-01

NASA s Exploration Systems Mission Directorate (ESMD) is implementing a management approach for modeling and simulation (M&S) that will provide decision-makers information on the model s fidelity, credibility, and quality, including the verification, validation and accreditation information. The NASA MSRR will be implemented leveraging M&S industry best practices. This presentation will discuss the requirements that will enable NASA to capture and make available the "meta data" or "simulation biography" data associated with a model. The presentation will also describe the requirements that drive how NASA will collect and document relevant information for models or suites of models in order to facilitate use and reuse of relevant models and provide visibility across NASA organizations and the larger M&S community.

A fully integrated SWAT-MODFLOW hydrologic model

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and MODFLOW models are being used worldwide for managing surface and groundwater water resources. The SWAT models hydrological processes occurring at the surface including shallow aquifers, while MODFLOW simulate groundwater processes. However, neither SWAT ...

AQUATOOL, a generalized decision-support system for water-resources planning and operational management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andreu, J.; Capilla, J.; Sanchís, E.

1996-04-01

This paper describes a generic decision-support system (DSS) which was originally designed for the planning stage of dicision-making associated with complex river basins. Subsequently, it was expanded to incorporate modules relating to the operational stage of decision-making. Computer-assisted design modules allow any complex water-resource system to be represented in graphical form, giving access to geographically referenced databases and knowledge bases. The modelling capability includes basin simulation and optimization modules, an aquifer flow modelling module and two modules for risk assessment. The Segura and Tagus river basins have been used as case studies in the development and validation phases. The value of this DSS is demonstrated by the fact that both River Basin Agencies currently use a version for the efficient management of their water resources.

Simulation of groundwater and surface-water resources and evaluation of water-management alternatives for the Chamokane Creek basin, Stevens County, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ely, D. Matthew; Kahle, Sue C.

2012-01-01

A three-dimensional, transient numerical model of groundwater and surface-water flow was constructed for Chamokane Creek basin to better understand the groundwater-flow system and its relation to surface-water resources. The model described in this report can be used as a tool by water-management agencies and other stakeholders to quantitatively evaluate the effects of potential increases in groundwater pumping on groundwater and surface-water resources in the basin. The Chamokane Creek model was constructed using the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) integrated model, GSFLOW. GSFLOW was developed to simulate coupled groundwater and surface-water resources. The model uses 1,000-foot grid cells that subdivide the model domain by 102 rows and 106 columns. Six hydrogeologic units in the model are represented using eight model layers. Daily precipitation and temperature were spatially distributed and subsequent groundwater recharge was computed within GSFLOW. Streamflows in Chamokane Creek and its major tributaries are simulated in the model by routing streamflow within a stream network that is coupled to the groundwater-flow system. Groundwater pumpage and surface-water diversions and returns specified in the model were derived from monthly and annual pumpage values previously estimated from another component of this study and new data reported by study partners. The model simulation period is water years 1980-2010 (October 1, 1979, to September 30, 2010), but the model was calibrated to the transient conditions for water years 1999-2010 (October 1, 1998, to September 30, 2010). Calibration was completed by using traditional trial-and-error methods and automated parameter-estimation techniques. The model adequately reproduces the measured time-series groundwater levels and daily streamflows. At well observation points, the mean difference between simulated and measured hydraulic heads is 7 feet with a root-mean-square error divided by the total difference in water levels of 4.7 percent. Simulated streamflow was compared to measured streamflow at the USGS streamflow-gaging station-Chamokane Creek below Falls, near Long Lake (12433200). Annual differences between measured and simulated streamflow for the site ranged from -63 to 22 percent. Calibrated model output includes a 31-year estimate of monthly water budget components for the hydrologic system. Five model applications (scenarios) were completed to obtain a better understanding of the relation between groundwater pumping and surface-water resources. The calibrated transient model was used to evaluate: (1) the connection between the upper- and middle-basin groundwater systems, (2) the effect of surface-water and groundwater uses in the middle basin, (3) the cumulative impacts of claims registry use and permit-exempt wells on Chamokane Creek streamflow, (4) the frequency of regulation due to impacted streamflow, and (5) the levels of domestic and stockwater use that can be regulated. The simulation results indicated that streamflow is affected by existing groundwater pumping in the upper and middle basins. Simulated water-management scenarios show streamflow increased relative to historical conditions as groundwater and surface-water withdrawals decreased.

Grid commerce, market-driven G-negotiation, and Grid resource management.

PubMed

Sim, Kwang Mong

2006-12-01

Although the management of resources is essential for realizing a computational grid, providing an efficient resource allocation mechanism is a complex undertaking. Since Grid providers and consumers may be independent bodies, negotiation among them is necessary. The contribution of this paper is showing that market-driven agents (MDAs) are appropriate tools for Grid resource negotiation. MDAs are e-negotiation agents designed with the flexibility of: 1) making adjustable amounts of concession taking into account market rivalry, outside options, and time preferences and 2) relaxing bargaining terms in the face of intense pressure. A heterogeneous testbed consisting of several types of e-negotiation agents to simulate a Grid computing environment was developed. It compares the performance of MDAs against other e-negotiation agents (e.g., Kasbah) in a Grid-commerce environment. Empirical results show that MDAs generally achieve: 1) higher budget efficiencies in many market situations than other e-negotiation agents in the testbed and 2) higher success rates in acquiring Grid resources under high Grid loadings.

About Distributed Simulation-based Optimization of Forming Processes using a Grid Architecture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grauer, Manfred; Barth, Thomas

2004-06-01

Permanently increasing complexity of products and their manufacturing processes combined with a shorter "time-to-market" leads to more and more use of simulation and optimization software systems for product design. Finding a "good" design of a product implies the solution of computationally expensive optimization problems based on the results of simulation. Due to the computational load caused by the solution of these problems, the requirements on the Information&Telecommunication (IT) infrastructure of an enterprise or research facility are shifting from stand-alone resources towards the integration of software and hardware resources in a distributed environment for high-performance computing. Resources can either comprise software systems, hardware systems, or communication networks. An appropriate IT-infrastructure must provide the means to integrate all these resources and enable their use even across a network to cope with requirements from geographically distributed scenarios, e.g. in computational engineering and/or collaborative engineering. Integrating expert's knowledge into the optimization process is inevitable in order to reduce the complexity caused by the number of design variables and the high dimensionality of the design space. Hence, utilization of knowledge-based systems must be supported by providing data management facilities as a basis for knowledge extraction from product data. In this paper, the focus is put on a distributed problem solving environment (PSE) capable of providing access to a variety of necessary resources and services. A distributed approach integrating simulation and optimization on a network of workstations and cluster systems is presented. For geometry generation the CAD-system CATIA is used which is coupled with the FEM-simulation system INDEED for simulation of sheet-metal forming processes and the problem solving environment OpTiX for distributed optimization.

Modeling hospital surgical delivery process design using system simulation: optimizing patient flow and bed capacity as an illustration.

PubMed

Kumar, Sameer

2011-01-01

It is increasingly recognized that hospital operation is an intricate system with limited resources and many interacting sources of both positive and negative feedback. The purpose of this study is to design a surgical delivery process in a county hospital in the U.S where patient flow through a surgical ward is optimized. The system simulation modeling is used to address questions of capacity planning, throughput management and interacting resources which constitute the constantly changing complexity that characterizes designing a contemporary surgical delivery process in a hospital. The steps in building a system simulation model is demonstrated using an example of building a county hospital in a small city in the US. It is used to illustrate a modular system simulation modeling of patient surgery process flows. The system simulation model development will enable planners and designers how they can build in overall efficiencies in a healthcare facility through optimal bed capacity for peak patient flow of emergency and routine patients.

P2S--Coupled simulation with the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) and the Stream Temperature Network (SNTemp) Models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Markstrom, Steven L.

2012-01-01

A software program, called P2S, has been developed which couples the daily stream temperature simulation capabilities of the U.S. Geological Survey Stream Network Temperature model with the watershed hydrology simulation capabilities of the U.S. Geological Survey Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System is a modular, deterministic, distributed-parameter, physical-process watershed model that simulates hydrologic response to various combinations of climate and land use. Stream Network Temperature was developed to help aquatic biologists and engineers predict the effects of changes that hydrology and energy have on water temperatures. P2S will allow scientists and watershed managers to evaluate the effects of historical climate and projected climate change, landscape evolution, and resource management scenarios on watershed hydrology and in-stream water temperature.

Use of a simulation laboratory to train radiology residents in the management of acute radiologic emergencies.

PubMed

Sarwani, Nabeel; Tappouni, Rafel; Flemming, Donald

2012-08-01

Simulation laboratories use realistic clinical scenarios to train physicians in a controlled environment, especially in potentially life-threatening complications that require prompt management. The objective of our study was to develop a comprehensive program using the simulation laboratory to train radiology residents in the management of acute radiologic emergencies. All radiology residents attended a dedicated simulation laboratory course lasting 3 hours, divided over two sessions. Training included basic patient management skills, management of a tension pneumothorax, massive hemorrhage, and contrast agent reactions. Participants were presented with 20 multiple-choice questions before and after the course. Pre- and posttest results were analyzed, and the McNemar test was used to compare correct responses by individual question. Twenty-six radiology residents attended the class. The average pre- and posttest scores and the average difference between the scores for all residents were 13.8, 17.1, and 3.3, respectively (p < 0.0001). Incorrect answers on the pretest examination that were subsequently answered correctly concerned administration of epinephrine for severe reactions, management of a tension pneumothorax, oxygen therapy, ECG placement, cardiopulmonary resuscitation technique, and where to stand during a code situation. Persistent incorrect answers concerned vasovagal reactions and emergency telephone numbers at an off-site imaging center. Simulation laboratories can be used to teach crisis management and crisis resource management for radiology residents and should be part of the education toolbox. Defined objectives lead to a comprehensive course dealing with the management of acute radiologic emergencies. Such programs can improve the role of radiologists as members of the health care team.

Evaluative methodology for comprehensive water quality management planning

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dyer, H. L.

Computer-based evaluative methodologies have been developed to provide for the analysis of coupled phenomena associated with natural resource comprehensive planning requirements. Provisions for planner/computer interaction have been included. Each of the simulation models developed is described in terms of its coded procedures. An application of the models for water quality management planning is presented; and the data requirements for each of the models are noted.

Chapter 5: Application of state-and-transition models to evaluate wildlife habitat

Treesearch

Anita T. Morzillo; Pamela Comeleo; Blair Csuti; Stephanie Lee

2014-01-01

Wildlife habitat analysis often is a central focus of natural resources management and policy. State-and-transition models (STMs) allow for simulation of landscape level ecological processes, and for managers to test “what if” scenarios of how those processes may affect wildlife habitat. This chapter describes the methods used to link STM output to wildlife habitat to...

Travel simulation modeling: an emerging tool for visitor management in wilderness

Treesearch

David N. Cole

2004-01-01

Rhe amount, type, timing, and location of visitor use all have profound effects on the quality of the natural resources and visitor experiences in wilderness. Therefore, it is important to monitor the flow of visitation, in space and over time, and predict how distributions are likely to change in response to both management actions and factors that are not subject to...

Panel: Eco-informatics and decision making managing our natural resources

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gushing, J.B.; Wilson, T.; Martin, F.; Schnase, J.; Spengler, S.; Sugarbaker, L.; Pardo, T.

2006-01-01

This panel responds to the December 2004 workshop on Eco-Informatics and Decision Making [1], which addressed how informatics tools can help with better management of natural resources and policy making. The workshop was jointly sponsored by the NSF, NBII, NASA, and EPA. Workshop participants recommended that informatics research in four IT areas be funded: modeling and simulation, data quality, information integration and ontologies, and social and human aspects. Additionally, they recommend that funding agencies provide infrastructure and some changes in funding habits to assure cycles of innovation in the domain were addressed. This panel brings issues raised in that workshop to the attention of digital government researchers.

Assessment of the Potential Impacts of Wheat Plant Traits across Environments by Combining Crop Modeling and Global Sensitivity Analysis

PubMed Central

Casadebaig, Pierre; Zheng, Bangyou; Chapman, Scott; Huth, Neil; Faivre, Robert; Chenu, Karine

2016-01-01

A crop can be viewed as a complex system with outputs (e.g. yield) that are affected by inputs of genetic, physiology, pedo-climatic and management information. Application of numerical methods for model exploration assist in evaluating the major most influential inputs, providing the simulation model is a credible description of the biological system. A sensitivity analysis was used to assess the simulated impact on yield of a suite of traits involved in major processes of crop growth and development, and to evaluate how the simulated value of such traits varies across environments and in relation to other traits (which can be interpreted as a virtual change in genetic background). The study focused on wheat in Australia, with an emphasis on adaptation to low rainfall conditions. A large set of traits (90) was evaluated in a wide target population of environments (4 sites × 125 years), management practices (3 sowing dates × 3 nitrogen fertilization levels) and CO2 (2 levels). The Morris sensitivity analysis method was used to sample the parameter space and reduce computational requirements, while maintaining a realistic representation of the targeted trait × environment × management landscape (∼ 82 million individual simulations in total). The patterns of parameter × environment × management interactions were investigated for the most influential parameters, considering a potential genetic range of +/- 20% compared to a reference cultivar. Main (i.e. linear) and interaction (i.e. non-linear and interaction) sensitivity indices calculated for most of APSIM-Wheat parameters allowed the identification of 42 parameters substantially impacting yield in most target environments. Among these, a subset of parameters related to phenology, resource acquisition, resource use efficiency and biomass allocation were identified as potential candidates for crop (and model) improvement. PMID:26799483

Assessment of the Potential Impacts of Wheat Plant Traits across Environments by Combining Crop Modeling and Global Sensitivity Analysis.

PubMed

Casadebaig, Pierre; Zheng, Bangyou; Chapman, Scott; Huth, Neil; Faivre, Robert; Chenu, Karine

2016-01-01

A crop can be viewed as a complex system with outputs (e.g. yield) that are affected by inputs of genetic, physiology, pedo-climatic and management information. Application of numerical methods for model exploration assist in evaluating the major most influential inputs, providing the simulation model is a credible description of the biological system. A sensitivity analysis was used to assess the simulated impact on yield of a suite of traits involved in major processes of crop growth and development, and to evaluate how the simulated value of such traits varies across environments and in relation to other traits (which can be interpreted as a virtual change in genetic background). The study focused on wheat in Australia, with an emphasis on adaptation to low rainfall conditions. A large set of traits (90) was evaluated in a wide target population of environments (4 sites × 125 years), management practices (3 sowing dates × 3 nitrogen fertilization levels) and CO2 (2 levels). The Morris sensitivity analysis method was used to sample the parameter space and reduce computational requirements, while maintaining a realistic representation of the targeted trait × environment × management landscape (∼ 82 million individual simulations in total). The patterns of parameter × environment × management interactions were investigated for the most influential parameters, considering a potential genetic range of +/- 20% compared to a reference cultivar. Main (i.e. linear) and interaction (i.e. non-linear and interaction) sensitivity indices calculated for most of APSIM-Wheat parameters allowed the identification of 42 parameters substantially impacting yield in most target environments. Among these, a subset of parameters related to phenology, resource acquisition, resource use efficiency and biomass allocation were identified as potential candidates for crop (and model) improvement.

A systematic assessment of watershed-scale nonpoint source pollution during rainfall-runoff events in the Miyun Reservoir watershed.

PubMed

Qiu, Jiali; Shen, Zhenyao; Wei, Guoyuan; Wang, Guobo; Xie, Hui; Lv, Guanping

2018-03-01

The assessment of peak flow rate, total runoff volume, and pollutant loads during rainfall process are very important for the watershed management and the ecological restoration of aquatic environment. Real-time measurements of rainfall-runoff and pollutant loads are always the most reliable approach but are difficult to carry out at all desired location in the watersheds considering the large consumption of material and financial resources. An integrated environmental modeling approach for the estimation of flash streamflow that combines the various hydrological and quality processes during rainstorms within the agricultural watersheds is essential to develop targeted management strategies for the endangered drinking water. This study applied the Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) to simulate the spatial and temporal variation in hydrological processes and pollutant transport processes during rainstorm events in the Miyun Reservoir watershed, a drinking water resource area in Beijing. The model performance indicators ensured the acceptable applicability of the HSPF model to simulate flow and pollutant loads in the studied watershed and to establish a relationship between land use and the parameter values. The proportion of soil and land use was then identified as the influencing factors of the pollution intensities. The results indicated that the flush concentrations were much higher than those observed during normal flow periods and considerably exceeded the limits of Class III Environmental Quality Standards for Surface Water (GB3838-2002) for the secondary protection zones of the drinking water resource in China. Agricultural land and leached cinnamon soils were identified as the key sources of sediment, nutrients, and fecal coliforms. Precipitation volume was identified as a driving factor that determined the amount of runoff and pollutant loads during rainfall processes. These results are useful to improve the streamflow predictions, provide useful information for the identification of highly polluted areas, and aid the development of integrated watershed management system in the drinking water resource area.

A Web-based Distributed Voluntary Computing Platform for Large Scale Hydrological Computations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demir, I.; Agliamzanov, R.

2014-12-01

Distributed volunteer computing can enable researchers and scientist to form large parallel computing environments to utilize the computing power of the millions of computers on the Internet, and use them towards running large scale environmental simulations and models to serve the common good of local communities and the world. Recent developments in web technologies and standards allow client-side scripting languages to run at speeds close to native application, and utilize the power of Graphics Processing Units (GPU). Using a client-side scripting language like JavaScript, we have developed an open distributed computing framework that makes it easy for researchers to write their own hydrologic models, and run them on volunteer computers. Users will easily enable their websites for visitors to volunteer sharing their computer resources to contribute running advanced hydrological models and simulations. Using a web-based system allows users to start volunteering their computational resources within seconds without installing any software. The framework distributes the model simulation to thousands of nodes in small spatial and computational sizes. A relational database system is utilized for managing data connections and queue management for the distributed computing nodes. In this paper, we present a web-based distributed volunteer computing platform to enable large scale hydrological simulations and model runs in an open and integrated environment.

Summary of hydrologic modeling for the Delaware River Basin using the Water Availability Tool for Environmental Resources (WATER)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williamson, Tanja N.; Lant, Jeremiah G.; Claggett, Peter; Nystrom, Elizabeth A.; Milly, Paul C.D.; Nelson, Hugh L.; Hoffman, Scott A.; Colarullo, Susan J.; Fischer, Jeffrey M.

2015-11-18

The Water Availability Tool for Environmental Resources (WATER) is a decision support system for the nontidal part of the Delaware River Basin that provides a consistent and objective method of simulating streamflow under historical, forecasted, and managed conditions. In order to quantify the uncertainty associated with these simulations, however, streamflow and the associated hydroclimatic variables of potential evapotranspiration, actual evapotranspiration, and snow accumulation and snowmelt must be simulated and compared to long-term, daily observations from sites. This report details model development and optimization, statistical evaluation of simulations for 57 basins ranging from 2 to 930 km2 and 11.0 to 99.5 percent forested cover, and how this statistical evaluation of daily streamflow relates to simulating environmental changes and management decisions that are best examined at monthly time steps normalized over multiple decades. The decision support system provides a database of historical spatial and climatic data for simulating streamflow for 2001–11, in addition to land-cover and general circulation model forecasts that focus on 2030 and 2060. WATER integrates geospatial sampling of landscape characteristics, including topographic and soil properties, with a regionally calibrated hillslope-hydrology model, an impervious-surface model, and hydroclimatic models that were parameterized by using three hydrologic response units: forested, agricultural, and developed land cover. This integration enables the regional hydrologic modeling approach used in WATER without requiring site-specific optimization or those stationary conditions inferred when using a statistical model.

Development and Application of a Stakeholder Assisted Dynamic Model to Facilitate Socio Hydrological Groundwater Management on Watershed Scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baig, A. I.; Adamowski, J. F.; Malard, J. J.; Peng, G.

2017-12-01

Groundwater resource, especially in canal downstream areas are under direct threat due to over extraction by farming community. The resource is easily exploitable and no regulatory policies are enforced effectively in the region. Therefore, there is an urgent need to manage the resource judiciously through policy implementation and stakeholder engagement. In developing countries such as Pakistan, effective management solutions need consideration of some addition factors such as small land holdings, the poor economic status of farmers, and limited modeling and mathematical skills. This presentation will discuss development and application of a comprehensive but simple stakeholder assisted dynamic model to address such challenges. Two major components of the dynamic model were: (i) a system dynamics model that describes socio-economic factors such as market values; and ii) a physically based model that simulates the salt balance in the root zone with conjunctive use of canal and tube well irrigation water. Stakeholder proposed policy scenarios such as canal lining, government-sponsored tubewell installation schemes were tested and optimized through economic and environmental tradeoff criteria. After 20 years of simulation, government subsidies on tubewells appear as a short term policy that resulted 37% increase in water availability with 12% increase in farmer income. However, it showed detrimental effects on groundwater sustainability in long terms, with 10% drop in groundwater levels.

Solutions Network Formulation Report. The Potential Contributions of the Global Precipitation Measurement Mission to Estuary Management in Acadia National Park

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Anderson, Daniel; Hilbert, Kent; Lewis, David

2007-01-01

This candidate solution suggests the use of GPM precipitation observations to enhance the Acadia National Park NLERDSS. Simulated GPM data should provide measurements that would enable analysis of how precipitation affects runoff and nutrient load in the park?s wetlands. This solution benefits society by aiding park and resource managers in making predictions based on hypothetical changes and in identifying effective mitigation scenarios. This solution supports the Coastal Management, Water Management, and Ecological Forecasting National Applications.

Seventh symposium on systems analysis in forest resources; 1997 May 28-31; Traverse City, MI.

Treesearch

J. Michael Vasievich; Jeremy S. Fried; Larry A. Leefers

2000-01-01

This international symposium included presentations by representatives from government, academic, and private institutions. Topics covered management objectives; information systems: modeling, optimization, simulation and decision support techniques; spatial methods; timber supply; and economic and operational analyses.

Synergies between climate and management for Atlantic cod fisheries at high latitudes

PubMed Central

Kjesbu, Olav Sigurd; Bogstad, Bjarte; Devine, Jennifer A.; Gjøsæter, Harald; Howell, Daniel; Ingvaldsen, Randi B.; Nash, Richard D. M.; Skjæraasen, Jon Egil

2014-01-01

The widespread depletion of commercially exploited marine living resources is often seen as a general failure of management and results in criticism of contemporary management procedures. When populations show dramatic and positive changes in population size, this invariably leads to questions about whether favorable climatic conditions or good management (or both) were responsible. The Barents Sea cod (Gadus morhua) stock has recently increased markedly and the spawning stock biomass is now at an unprecedented high. We identify the crucial social and environmental factors that made this unique growth possible. The relationship between vital rates of Barents Sea cod stock productivity (recruitment, growth, and mortality) and environment is investigated, followed by simulations of population size under different management scenarios. We show that the recent sustained reduction in fishing mortality, facilitated by the implementation of a “harvest control rule,” was essential to the increase in population size. Simulations show that a drastic reduction in fishing mortality has resulted in a doubling of the total population biomass compared with that expected under the former management regime. However, management alone was not solely responsible. We document that prevailing climate, operating through several mechanistic links, positively reinforced management actions. Heightened temperature resulted in an increase in the extent of the suitable feeding area for Barents Sea cod, likely offering a release from density-dependent effects (for example, food competition and cannibalism) through prolonged overlap with prey and improved adult stock productivity. Management and climate may thus interact to give a positive outlook for exploited high-latitude marine resources. PMID:24550465

Synergies between climate and management for Atlantic cod fisheries at high latitudes.

PubMed

Kjesbu, Olav Sigurd; Bogstad, Bjarte; Devine, Jennifer A; Gjøsæter, Harald; Howell, Daniel; Ingvaldsen, Randi B; Nash, Richard D M; Skjæraasen, Jon Egil

2014-03-04

The widespread depletion of commercially exploited marine living resources is often seen as a general failure of management and results in criticism of contemporary management procedures. When populations show dramatic and positive changes in population size, this invariably leads to questions about whether favorable climatic conditions or good management (or both) were responsible. The Barents Sea cod (Gadus morhua) stock has recently increased markedly and the spawning stock biomass is now at an unprecedented high. We identify the crucial social and environmental factors that made this unique growth possible. The relationship between vital rates of Barents Sea cod stock productivity (recruitment, growth, and mortality) and environment is investigated, followed by simulations of population size under different management scenarios. We show that the recent sustained reduction in fishing mortality, facilitated by the implementation of a "harvest control rule," was essential to the increase in population size. Simulations show that a drastic reduction in fishing mortality has resulted in a doubling of the total population biomass compared with that expected under the former management regime. However, management alone was not solely responsible. We document that prevailing climate, operating through several mechanistic links, positively reinforced management actions. Heightened temperature resulted in an increase in the extent of the suitable feeding area for Barents Sea cod, likely offering a release from density-dependent effects (for example, food competition and cannibalism) through prolonged overlap with prey and improved adult stock productivity. Management and climate may thus interact to give a positive outlook for exploited high-latitude marine resources.

Uncertainty and risk in wildland fire management: a review.

PubMed

Thompson, Matthew P; Calkin, Dave E

2011-08-01

Wildland fire management is subject to manifold sources of uncertainty. Beyond the unpredictability of wildfire behavior, uncertainty stems from inaccurate/missing data, limited resource value measures to guide prioritization across fires and resources at risk, and an incomplete scientific understanding of ecological response to fire, of fire behavior response to treatments, and of spatiotemporal dynamics involving disturbance regimes and climate change. This work attempts to systematically align sources of uncertainty with the most appropriate decision support methodologies, in order to facilitate cost-effective, risk-based wildfire planning efforts. We review the state of wildfire risk assessment and management, with a specific focus on uncertainties challenging implementation of integrated risk assessments that consider a suite of human and ecological values. Recent advances in wildfire simulation and geospatial mapping of highly valued resources have enabled robust risk-based analyses to inform planning across a variety of scales, although improvements are needed in fire behavior and ignition occurrence models. A key remaining challenge is a better characterization of non-market resources at risk, both in terms of their response to fire and how society values those resources. Our findings echo earlier literature identifying wildfire effects analysis and value uncertainty as the primary challenges to integrated wildfire risk assessment and wildfire management. We stress the importance of identifying and characterizing uncertainties in order to better quantify and manage them. Leveraging the most appropriate decision support tools can facilitate wildfire risk assessment and ideally improve decision-making. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

A simulation-optimization model for effective water resources management in the coastal zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spanoudaki, Katerina; Kampanis, Nikolaos

2015-04-01

Coastal areas are the most densely-populated areas in the world. Consequently water demand is high, posing great pressure on fresh water resources. Climatic change and its direct impacts on meteorological variables (e.g. precipitation) and indirect impact on sea level rise, as well as anthropogenic pressures (e.g. groundwater abstraction), are strong drivers causing groundwater salinisation and subsequently affecting coastal wetlands salinity with adverse effects on the corresponding ecosystems. Coastal zones are a difficult hydrologic environment to represent with a mathematical model due to the large number of contributing hydrologic processes and variable-density flow conditions. Simulation of sea level rise and tidal effects on aquifer salinisation and accurate prediction of interactions between coastal waters, groundwater and neighbouring wetlands requires the use of integrated surface water-groundwater mathematical models. In the past few decades several computer codes have been developed to simulate coupled surface and groundwater flow. However, most integrated surface water-groundwater models are based on the assumption of constant fluid density and therefore their applicability to coastal regions is questionable. Thus, most of the existing codes are not well-suited to represent surface water-groundwater interactions in coastal areas. To this end, the 3D integrated surface water-groundwater model IRENE (Spanoudaki et al., 2009; Spanoudaki, 2010) has been modified in order to simulate surface water-groundwater flow and salinity interactions in the coastal zone. IRENE, in its original form, couples the 3D shallow water equations to the equations describing 3D saturated groundwater flow of constant density. A semi-implicit finite difference scheme is used to solve the surface water flow equations, while a fully implicit finite difference scheme is used for the groundwater equations. Pollution interactions are simulated by coupling the advection-diffusion equation describing the fate and transport of contaminants introduced in a 3D turbulent flow field to the partial differential equation describing the fate and transport of contaminants in 3D transient groundwater flow systems. The model has been further developed to include the effects of density variations on surface water and groundwater flow, while the already built-in solute transport capabilities are used to simulate salinity interactions. The refined model is based on the finite volume method using a cell-centred structured grid, providing thus flexibility and accuracy in simulating irregular boundary geometries. For addressing water resources management problems, simulation models are usually externally coupled with optimisation-based management models. However this usually requires a very large number of iterations between the optimisation and simulation models in order to obtain the optimal management solution. As an alternative approach, for improved computational efficiency, an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is trained as an approximate simulator of IRENE. The trained ANN is then linked to a Genetic Algorithm (GA) based optimisation model for managing salinisation problems in the coastal zone. The linked simulation-optimisation model is applied to a hypothetical study area for performance evaluation. Acknowledgement The work presented in this paper has been funded by the Greek State Scholarships Foundation (IKY), Fellowships of Excellence for Postdoctoral Studies (Siemens Program), 'A simulation-optimization model for assessing the best practices for the protection of surface water and groundwater in the coastal zone', (2013 - 2015). References Spanoudaki, K., Stamou, A.I. and Nanou-Giannarou, A. (2009). Development and verification of a 3-D integrated surface water-groundwater model. Journal of Hydrology, 375 (3-4), 410-427. Spanoudaki, K. (2010). Integrated numerical modelling of surface water groundwater systems (in Greek). Ph.D. Thesis, National Technical University of Athens, Greece.

The RICORDO approach to semantic interoperability for biomedical data and models: strategy, standards and solutions

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background The practice and research of medicine generates considerable quantities of data and model resources (DMRs). Although in principle biomedical resources are re-usable, in practice few can currently be shared. In particular, the clinical communities in physiology and pharmacology research, as well as medical education, (i.e. PPME communities) are facing considerable operational and technical obstacles in sharing data and models. Findings We outline the efforts of the PPME communities to achieve automated semantic interoperability for clinical resource documentation in collaboration with the RICORDO project. Current community practices in resource documentation and knowledge management are overviewed. Furthermore, requirements and improvements sought by the PPME communities to current documentation practices are discussed. The RICORDO plan and effort in creating a representational framework and associated open software toolkit for the automated management of PPME metadata resources is also described. Conclusions RICORDO is providing the PPME community with tools to effect, share and reason over clinical resource annotations. This work is contributing to the semantic interoperability of DMRs through ontology-based annotation by (i) supporting more effective navigation and re-use of clinical DMRs, as well as (ii) sustaining interoperability operations based on the criterion of biological similarity. Operations facilitated by RICORDO will range from automated dataset matching to model merging and managing complex simulation workflows. In effect, RICORDO is contributing to community standards for resource sharing and interoperability. PMID:21878109

Healthcare knowledge management through building and operationalising healthcare enterprise memory.

PubMed

Cheah, Y N; Abidi, S S

1999-01-01

In this paper we suggest that the healthcare enterprise needs to be more conscious of its vast knowledge resources vis-à-vis the exploitation of knowledge management techniques to efficiently manage its knowledge. The development of healthcare enterprise memory is suggested as a solution, together with a novel approach advocating the operationalisation of healthcare enterprise memories leading to the modelling of healthcare processes for strategic planning. As an example, we present a simulation of Service Delivery Time in a hospital's OPD.

A regional groundwater-flow model for sustainable groundwater-resource management in the south Asian megacity of Dhaka, Bangladesh

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Islam, Md Bayzidul; Firoz, A. B. M.; Foglia, Laura; Marandi, Andres; Khan, Abidur Rahman; Schüth, Christoph; Ribbe, Lars

2017-05-01

The water resources that supply most of the megacities in the world are under increased pressure because of land transformation, population growth, rapid urbanization, and climate-change impacts. Dhaka, in Bangladesh, is one of the largest of 22 growing megacities in the world, and it depends on mainly groundwater for all kinds of water needs. The regional groundwater-flow model MODFLOW-2005 was used to simulate the interaction between aquifers and rivers in steady-state and transient conditions during the period 1981-2013, to assess the impact of development and climate change on the regional groundwater resources. Detailed hydro-stratigraphic units are described according to 150 lithology logs, and a three-dimensional model of the upper 400 m of the Greater Dhaka area was constructed. The results explain how the total abstraction (2.9 million m3/d) in the Dhaka megacity, which has caused regional cones of depression, is balanced by recharge and induced river leakage. The simulated outcome shows the general trend of groundwater flow in the sedimentary Holocene aquifers under a variety of hydrogeological conditions, which will assist in the future development of a rational and sustainable management approach.

Development of a decision support system for small reservoir irrigation systems in rainfed and drought prone areas.

PubMed

Balderama, Orlando F

2010-01-01

An integrated computer program called Cropping System and Water Management Model (CSWM) with a three-step feature (expert system-simulation-optimization) was developed to address a range of decision support for rainfed farming, i.e. crop selection, scheduling and optimisation. The system was used for agricultural planning with emphasis on sustainable agriculture in the rainfed areas through the use of small farm reservoirs for increased production and resource conservation and management. The application of the model was carried out using crop, soil, and climate and water resource data from the Philippines. Primarily, four sets of data representing the different rainfall classification of the country were collected, analysed, and used as input in the model. Simulations were also done on date of planting, probabilities of wet and dry period and with various capacities of the water reservoir used for supplemental irrigation. Through the analysis, useful information was obtained to determine suitable crops in the region, cropping schedule and pattern appropriate to the specific climate conditions. In addition, optimisation of the use of the land and water resources can be achieved in areas partly irrigated by small reservoirs.

Ground-water models as a management tool in Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hutchinson, C.B.

1984-01-01

Highly sophisticated computer models provide powerful tools for analyzing historic data and for simulating future water levels, water movement, and water chemistry under stressed conditions throughout the ground-water system in Florida. Models that simulate the movement of heat and subsidence of land in response to aquifer pumping also have potential for application to hydrologic problems in the State. Florida, with 20 ground-water modeling studies reported since 1972, has applied computer modeling techniques to a variety of water-resources problems. Models in Florida generally have been used to provide insight to problems of water supply, contamination, and impact on the environment. The model applications range from site-specific studies, such as estimating contamination by wastewater injection at St. Petersburg, to a regional model of the entire State that may be used to assess broad-scale environmental impact of water-resources development. Recently, groundwater models have been used as management tools by the State regulatory authority to permit or deny development of water resources. As modeling precision, knowledge, and confidence increase, the use of ground-water models will shift more and more toward regulation of development and enforcement of environmental laws. (USGS)

Managing water quality under drought conditions in the Llobregat River Basin.

PubMed

Momblanch, Andrea; Paredes-Arquiola, Javier; Munné, Antoni; Manzano, Andreu; Arnau, Javier; Andreu, Joaquín

2015-01-15

The primary effects of droughts on river basins include both depleted quantity and quality of the available water resources, which can render water resources useless for human needs and simultaneously damage the environment. Isolated water quality analyses limit the action measures that can be proposed. Thus, an integrated evaluation of water management and quality is warranted. In this study, a methodology consisting of two coordinated models is used to combine aspects of water resource allocation and water quality assessment. Water management addresses water allocation issues by considering the storage, transport and consumption elements. Moreover, the water quality model generates time series of concentrations for several pollutants according to the water quality of the runoff and the demand discharges. These two modules are part of the AQUATOOL decision support system shell for water resource management. This tool facilitates the analysis of the effects of water management and quality alternatives and scenarios on the relevant variables in a river basin. This paper illustrates the development of an integrated model for the Llobregat River Basin. The analysis examines the drought from 2004 to 2008, which is an example of a period when the water system was quantitative and qualitatively stressed. The performed simulations encompass a wide variety of water management and water quality measures; the results provide data for making informed decisions. Moreover, the results demonstrated the importance of combining these measures depending on the evolution of a drought event and the state of the water resources system. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A cost-effectiveness analysis of self-debriefing versus instructor debriefing for simulated crises in perioperative medicine in Canada.

PubMed

Isaranuwatchai, Wanrudee; Alam, Fahad; Hoch, Jeffrey; Boet, Sylvain

2017-01-01

High-fidelity simulation training is effective for learning crisis resource management (CRM) skills, but cost is a major barrier to implementing high-fidelity simulation training into the curriculum. The aim of this study was to examine the cost-effectiveness of self-debriefing and traditional instructor debriefing in CRM training programs and to calculate the minimum willingness-to-pay (WTP) value when one debriefing type becomes more cost-effective than the other. This study used previous data from a randomized controlled trial involving 50 anesthesiology residents in Canada. Each participant managed a pretest crisis scenario. Participants who were randomized to self-debrief used the video of their pretest scenario with no instructor present during their debriefing. Participants from the control group were debriefed by a trained instructor using the video of their pretest scenario. Participants individually managed a post-test simulated crisis scenario. We compared the cost and effectiveness of self-debriefing versus instructor debriefing using net benefit regression. The cost-effectiveness estimate was reported as the incremental net benefit and the uncertainty was presented using a cost-effectiveness acceptability curve. Self-debriefing costs less than instructor debriefing. As the WTP increased, the probability that self-debriefing would be cost-effective decreased. With a WTP ≤Can$200, the self-debriefing program was cost-effective. However, when effectiveness was priced higher than cost-savings and with a WTP >Can$300, instructor debriefing was the preferred alternative. With a lower WTP (≤Can$200), self-debriefing was cost-effective in CRM simulation training when compared to instructor debriefing. This study provides evidence regarding cost-effectiveness that will inform decision-makers and clinical educators in their decision-making process, and may help to optimize resource allocation in education.

Advancing Cyberinfrastructure to support high resolution water resources modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tarboton, D. G.; Ogden, F. L.; Jones, N.; Horsburgh, J. S.

2012-12-01

Addressing the problem of how the availability and quality of water resources at large scales are sensitive to climate variability, watershed alterations and management activities requires computational resources that combine data from multiple sources and support integrated modeling. Related cyberinfrastructure challenges include: 1) how can we best structure data and computer models to address this scientific problem through the use of high-performance and data-intensive computing, and 2) how can we do this in a way that discipline scientists without extensive computational and algorithmic knowledge and experience can take advantage of advances in cyberinfrastructure? This presentation will describe a new system called CI-WATER that is being developed to address these challenges and advance high resolution water resources modeling in the Western U.S. We are building on existing tools that enable collaboration to develop model and data interfaces that link integrated system models running within an HPC environment to multiple data sources. Our goal is to enhance the use of computational simulation and data-intensive modeling to better understand water resources. Addressing water resource problems in the Western U.S. requires simulation of natural and engineered systems, as well as representation of legal (water rights) and institutional constraints alongside the representation of physical processes. We are establishing data services to represent the engineered infrastructure and legal and institutional systems in a way that they can be used with high resolution multi-physics watershed modeling at high spatial resolution. These services will enable incorporation of location-specific information on water management infrastructure and systems into the assessment of regional water availability in the face of growing demands, uncertain future meteorological forcings, and existing prior-appropriations water rights. This presentation will discuss the informatics challenges involved with data management and easy-to-use access to high performance computing being tackled in this project.

Climate simulations and services on HPC, Cloud and Grid infrastructures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cofino, Antonio S.; Blanco, Carlos; Minondo Tshuma, Antonio

2017-04-01

Cloud, Grid and High Performance Computing have changed the accessibility and availability of computing resources for Earth Science research communities, specially for Climate community. These paradigms are modifying the way how climate applications are being executed. By using these technologies the number, variety and complexity of experiments and resources are increasing substantially. But, although computational capacity is increasing, traditional applications and tools used by the community are not good enough to manage this large volume and variety of experiments and computing resources. In this contribution, we evaluate the challenges to run climate simulations and services on Grid, Cloud and HPC infrestructures and how to tackle them. The Grid and Cloud infrastructures provided by EGI's VOs ( esr , earth.vo.ibergrid and fedcloud.egi.eu) will be evaluated, as well as HPC resources from PRACE infrastructure and institutional clusters. To solve those challenges, solutions using DRM4G framework will be shown. DRM4G provides a good framework to manage big volume and variety of computing resources for climate experiments. This work has been supported by the Spanish National R&D Plan under projects WRF4G (CGL2011-28864), INSIGNIA (CGL2016-79210-R) and MULTI-SDM (CGL2015-66583-R) ; the IS-ENES2 project from the 7FP of the European Commission (grant agreement no. 312979); the European Regional Development Fund—ERDF and the Programa de Personal Investigador en Formación Predoctoral from Universidad de Cantabria and Government of Cantabria.

Ground-water models for water resources planning

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moore, John E.

1980-01-01

In the past decade hydrologists have emphasized the development of computer-based mathematical models to aid in the understanding of flow, the transport of solutes, transport of heat, and deformation in the groundwater system. These models have been used to provide information and predictions for water managers. Too frequently, groundwater was neglected in water-resource planning because managers believed that it could not be adequately evaluated in terms of availability, quality, and effect of development on surface water supplies. Now, however, with newly developed digital groundwater models, effects of development can be predicted. Such models have been used to predict hydrologic and quality changes under different stresses. These models have grown in complexity over the last 10 years from simple one-layer flow models to three-dimensional simulations of groundwater flow which may include solute transport, heat transport, effects of land subsidence, and encroachment of salt water. This paper illustrates, through case histories, how predictive groundwater models have provided the information needed for the sound planning and management of water resources in the United States. (USGS)

GWM-2005 - A Groundwater-Management Process for MODFLOW-2005 with Local Grid Refinement (LGR) Capability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ahlfeld, David P.; Baker, Kristine M.; Barlow, Paul M.

2009-01-01

This report describes the Groundwater-Management (GWM) Process for MODFLOW-2005, the 2005 version of the U.S. Geological Survey modular three-dimensional groundwater model. GWM can solve a broad range of groundwater-management problems by combined use of simulation- and optimization-modeling techniques. These problems include limiting groundwater-level declines or streamflow depletions, managing groundwater withdrawals, and conjunctively using groundwater and surface-water resources. GWM was initially released for the 2000 version of MODFLOW. Several modifications and enhancements have been made to GWM since its initial release to increase the scope of the program's capabilities and to improve its operation and reporting of results. The new code, which is called GWM-2005, also was designed to support the local grid refinement capability of MODFLOW-2005. Local grid refinement allows for the simulation of one or more higher resolution local grids (referred to as child models) within a coarser grid parent model. Local grid refinement is often needed to improve simulation accuracy in regions where hydraulic gradients change substantially over short distances or in areas requiring detailed representation of aquifer heterogeneity. GWM-2005 can be used to formulate and solve groundwater-management problems that include components in both parent and child models. Although local grid refinement increases simulation accuracy, it can also substantially increase simulation run times.

A simulation/optimization study to assess seawater intrusion management strategies for the Gaza Strip coastal aquifer (Palestine)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dentoni, Marta; Deidda, Roberto; Paniconi, Claudio; Qahman, Khalid; Lecca, Giuditta

2015-03-01

Seawater intrusion is one of the major threats to freshwater resources in coastal areas, often exacerbated by groundwater overexploitation. Mitigation measures are needed to properly manage aquifers, and to restore groundwater quality. This study integrates three computational tools into a unified framework to investigate seawater intrusion in coastal areas and to assess strategies for managing groundwater resources under natural and human-induced stresses. The three components are a three-dimensional hydrogeological model for density-dependent variably saturated flow and miscible salt transport, an automatic calibration procedure that uses state variable outputs from the model to estimate selected model parameters, and an optimization module that couples a genetic algorithm with the simulation model. The computational system is used to rank alternative strategies for mitigation of seawater intrusion, taking into account conflicting objectives and problem constraints. It is applied to the Gaza Strip (Palestine) coastal aquifer to identify a feasible groundwater management strategy for the period 2011-2020. The optimized solution is able to: (1) keep overall future abstraction from municipal groundwater wells close to the user-defined maximum level, (2) increase the average groundwater heads, and (3) lower both the total mass of salt extracted and the extent of the areas affected by seawater intrusion.

Simulation of Streamflow and Selected Water-Quality Constituents through a Model of the Onondaga Lake Basin, Onondaga County, New York - A Guide to Model Application

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coon, William F.

2008-01-01

A computer model of hydrologic and water-quality processes of the Onondaga Lake basin in Onondaga County, N.Y., was developed during 2003-07 to assist water-resources managers in making basin-wide management decisions that could affect peak flows and the water quality of tributaries to Onondaga Lake. The model was developed with the Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) and was designed to allow simulation of proposed or hypothetical land-use changes, best-management practices (BMPs), and instream stormwater-detention basins such that their effects on flows and loads of suspended sediment, orthophosphate, total phosphorus, ammonia, organic nitrogen, and nitrate could be analyzed. Extreme weather conditions, such as intense storms and prolonged droughts, can be simulated through manipulation of the precipitation record. Model results obtained from different scenarios can then be compared and analyzed through an interactive computer program known as Generation and Analysis of Model Simulation Scenarios for Watersheds (GenScn). Background information on HSPF and GenScn is presented to familiarize the user with these two programs. Step-by-step examples are provided on (1) the creation of land-use, BMP, and stormflow-detention scenarios for simulation by the HSPF model, and (2) the analysis of simulation results through GenScn.

Methodology to explore emergent behaviours of the interactions between water resources and ecosystem under a pluralistic approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

García-Santos, Glenda; Madruga de Brito, Mariana; Höllermann, Britta; Taft, Linda; Almoradie, Adrian; Evers, Mariele

2018-06-01

Understanding the interactions between water resources and its social dimensions is crucial for an effective and sustainable water management. The identification of sensitive control variables and feedback loops of a specific human-hydro-scape can enhance the knowledge about the potential factors and/or agents leading to the current water resources and ecosystems situation, which in turn supports the decision-making process of desirable futures. Our study presents the utility of a system dynamics modeling approach for water management and decision-making for the case of a forest ecosystem under risk of wildfires. We use the pluralistic water research concept to explore different scenarios and simulate the emergent behaviour of water interception and net precipitation after a wildfire in a forest ecosystem. Through a case study, we illustrate the applicability of this new methodology.

Study on Contaminant Transportation of a Typical Chemical Industry Park Based on GMS Software

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, LinXian; Liu, GuoZhen; Xing, LiTing; Liu, BenHua; Xu, ZhengHe; Yang, LiZhi; Zhu, HebgHua

2018-03-01

The groundwater solute transport model can effectively simulated the transport path, the transport scope, and the concentration of contaminant which can provide quantitative data for groundwater pollution repair and groundwater resource management. In this study, we selected biological modern technology research base of Shandong province as research objective and simulated the pollution characteristic of typicalcontaminant cis-1, 3-dichloropropene under different operating conditions by using GMS software.

Guidelines for Applying Video Simulation Technology to Training Land Design

DTIC Science & Technology

1993-02-01

Training Land Design for Realism." The technical monitor was Dr. Victor Diersing, CEHSC-FN. This study was performed by the Environmental Resources...technology to their land management activities. 5 Objective The objective of this study was to provide a general overview of the use of video simulation...4). A market study of currently available hardware and software provided the basis for descriptions of hardware and software systems, and their

Simulation of groundwater flow and analysis of the effects of water-management options in the North Platte Natural Resources District, Nebraska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peterson, Steven M.; Flynn, Amanda T.; Vrabel, Joseph; Ryter, Derek W.

2015-08-12

The calibrated groundwater-flow model was used with the Groundwater-Management Process for the 2005 version of the U.S. Geological Survey modular three-dimensional groundwater model, MODFLOW–2005, to provide a tool for the NPNRD to better understand how water-management decisions could affect stream base flows of the North Platte River at Bridgeport, Nebr., streamgage in a future period from 2008 to 2019 under varying climatic conditions. The simulation-optimization model was constructed to analyze the maximum increase in simulated stream base flow that could be obtained with the minimum amount of reductions in groundwater withdrawals for irrigation. A second analysis extended the first to analyze the simulated base-flow benefit of groundwater withdrawals along with application of intentional recharge, that is, water from canals being released into rangeland areas with sandy soils. With optimized groundwater withdrawals and intentional recharge, the maximum simulated stream base flow was 15–23 cubic feet per second (ft3/s) greater than with no management at all, or 10–15 ft3/s larger than with managed groundwater withdrawals only. These results indicate not only the amount that simulated stream base flow can be increased by these management options, but also the locations where the management options provide the most or least benefit to the simulated stream base flow. For the analyses in this report, simulated base flow was best optimized by reductions in groundwater withdrawals north of the North Platte River and in the western half of the area. Intentional recharge sites selected by the optimization had a complex distribution but were more likely to be closer to the North Platte River or its tributaries. Future users of the simulation-optimization model will be able to modify the input files as to type, location, and timing of constraints, decision variables of groundwater withdrawals by zone, and other variables to explore other feasible management scenarios that may yield different increases in simulated future base flow of the North Platte River.

Applying Service-Oriented Architecture on The Development of Groundwater Modeling Support System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, C. Y.; WANG, Y.; Chang, L. C.; Tsai, J. P.; Hsiao, C. T.

2016-12-01

Groundwater simulation has become an essential step on the groundwater resources management and assessment. There are many stand-alone pre- and post-processing software packages to alleviate the model simulation loading, but the stand-alone software do not consider centralized management of data and simulation results neither do they provide network sharing functions. Hence, it is difficult to share and reuse the data and knowledge (simulation cases) systematically within or across companies. Therefore, this study develops a centralized and network based groundwater modeling support system to assist model construction. The system is based on service-oriented architecture and allows remote user to develop their modeling cases on internet. The data and cases (knowledge) are thus easy to manage centralized. MODFLOW is the modeling engine of the system, which is the most popular groundwater model in the world. The system provides a data warehouse to restore groundwater observations, MODFLOW Support Service, MODFLOW Input File & Shapefile Convert Service, MODFLOW Service, and Expert System Service to assist researchers to build models. Since the system architecture is service-oriented, it is scalable and flexible. The system can be easily extended to include the scenarios analysis and knowledge management to facilitate the reuse of groundwater modeling knowledge.

[From personnel administration to human resource management : demographic risk management in hospitals].

PubMed

Schmidt, C E; Gerbershagen, M U; Salehin, J; Weib, M; Schmidt, K; Wolff, F; Wappler, F

2011-06-01

The healthcare market is facing a serious shortage of qualified personnel in 2020. Aging of staff members is one important driver of this human resource deficit but current planning periods of 1-2 years cannot compensate the demographic effects on staff portfolio early enough. Therefore, prospective human resource planning is important to avoid loss of competence. The long range development (10 years) of human resources in the hospitals of the City of Cologne was analyzed. The basis for the analysis was a simulation model that included fluctuation of staff, retirement, maternity leave, status of employee illness, partial retirement and fresh engagements per department and profession. The model was matched with the staff requirements for each department. The results showed a capacity analysis which was used to convey strategic measures for staff recruitment and retention. The greatest risk for shortage of qualified staff was found in the fluctuation of doctors and in the aging work force. Without strategic human resource management the hospitals would face a 50% reduction of the work force within 10 years and after 2 years there would be a 25% deficit of anesthesiologists with impact on the function of operation rooms (OR) and intensive care units. Qualification and continuous training of staff members as well as process optimization are the most important spheres of activity for human resource management in order to recruit and retain qualified staff members. Prospective human resource planning for the OR and intensive care units can help to detect shortage of staff and loss of competence early enough to apply effective personnel development measures. A growing number of companies have started to plan ahead of the current demand of human resources. Hospitals should follow this example because the competition for qualified staff members is increasing rapidly.

A Hardware-Supported Algorithm for Self-Managed and Choreographed Task Execution in Sensor Networks.

PubMed

Bordel, Borja; Miguel, Carlos; Alcarria, Ramón; Robles, Tomás

2018-03-07

Nowadays, sensor networks are composed of a great number of tiny resource-constraint nodes, whose management is increasingly more complex. In fact, although collaborative or choreographic task execution schemes are which fit in the most perfect way with the nature of sensor networks, they are rarely implemented because of the high resource consumption of these algorithms (especially if networks include many resource-constrained devices). On the contrary, hierarchical networks are usually designed, in whose cusp it is included a heavy orchestrator with a remarkable processing power, being able to implement any necessary management solution. However, although this orchestration approach solves most practical management problems of sensor networks, a great amount of the operation time is wasted while nodes request the orchestrator to address a conflict and they obtain the required instructions to operate. Therefore, in this paper it is proposed a new mechanism for self-managed and choreographed task execution in sensor networks. The proposed solution considers only a lightweight gateway instead of traditional heavy orchestrators and a hardware-supported algorithm, which consume a negligible amount of resources in sensor nodes. The gateway avoids the congestion of the entire sensor network and the hardware-supported algorithm enables a choreographed task execution scheme, so no particular node is overloaded. The performance of the proposed solution is evaluated through numerical and electronic ModelSim-based simulations.

A Hardware-Supported Algorithm for Self-Managed and Choreographed Task Execution in Sensor Networks

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Nowadays, sensor networks are composed of a great number of tiny resource-constraint nodes, whose management is increasingly more complex. In fact, although collaborative or choreographic task execution schemes are which fit in the most perfect way with the nature of sensor networks, they are rarely implemented because of the high resource consumption of these algorithms (especially if networks include many resource-constrained devices). On the contrary, hierarchical networks are usually designed, in whose cusp it is included a heavy orchestrator with a remarkable processing power, being able to implement any necessary management solution. However, although this orchestration approach solves most practical management problems of sensor networks, a great amount of the operation time is wasted while nodes request the orchestrator to address a conflict and they obtain the required instructions to operate. Therefore, in this paper it is proposed a new mechanism for self-managed and choreographed task execution in sensor networks. The proposed solution considers only a lightweight gateway instead of traditional heavy orchestrators and a hardware-supported algorithm, which consume a negligible amount of resources in sensor nodes. The gateway avoids the congestion of the entire sensor network and the hardware-supported algorithm enables a choreographed task execution scheme, so no particular node is overloaded. The performance of the proposed solution is evaluated through numerical and electronic ModelSim-based simulations. PMID:29518986

Evaluation of the sustainability of deep groundwater as an arsenic-safe resource in the Bengal Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Michaela, Holly A.; Voss, Clifford I.

2008-01-01

Tens of millions of people in the Bengal Basin region of Bangladesh and India drink groundwater containing unsafe concentrations of arsenic. This high-arsenic groundwater is produced from shallow (<100 m) depths by domestic and irrigation wells in the Bengal Basin aquifer system. The government of Bangladesh has begun to install wells to depths of >150 m where groundwater arsenic concentrations are nearly uniformly low, and many more wells are needed, however, the sustainability of deep, arsenic-safe groundwater has not been previously assessed. Deeper pumping could induce downward migration of dissolved arsenic, permanently destroying the deep resource. Here, it is shown, through quantitative, large-scale hydrogeologic analysis and simulation of the entire basin, that the deeper part of the aquifer system may provide a sustainable source of arsenic-safe water if its utilization is limited to domestic supply. Simulations provide two explanations for this result: deep domestic pumping only slightly perturbs the deep groundwater flow system, and substantial shallow pumping for irrigation forms a hydraulic barrier that protects deeper resources from shallow arsenic sources. Additional analysis indicates that this simple management approach could provide arsenic-safe drinking water to >90% of the arsenic-impacted region over a 1,000-year timescale. This insight may assist water-resources managers in alleviating one of the world's largest groundwater contamination problems.

Helping mothers survive bleeding after birth: an evaluation of simulation-based training in a low-resource setting.

PubMed

Nelissen, Ellen; Ersdal, Hege; Ostergaard, Doris; Mduma, Estomih; Broerse, Jacqueline; Evjen-Olsen, Bjørg; van Roosmalen, Jos; Stekelenburg, Jelle

2014-03-01

To evaluate "Helping Mothers Survive Bleeding After Birth" (HMS BAB) simulation-based training in a low-resource setting. Educational intervention study. Rural referral hospital in Northern Tanzania. Clinicians, nurse-midwives, medical attendants, and ambulance drivers involved in maternity care. In March 2012, health care workers were trained in HMS BAB, a half-day simulation-based training, using a train-the-trainer model. The training focused on basic delivery care, active management of third stage of labor, and treatment of postpartum hemorrhage, including bimanual uterine compression. Evaluation questionnaires provided information on course perception. Knowledge, skills, and confidence of facilitators and learners were tested before and after training. Four master trainers trained eight local facilitators, who subsequently trained 89 learners. After training, all facilitators passed the knowledge test, but pass rates for the skills test were low (29% pass rate for basic delivery and 0% pass rate for management of postpartum hemorrhage). Evaluation revealed that HMS BAB training was considered acceptable and feasible, although more time should be allocated for training, and teaching materials should be translated into the local language. Knowledge, skills, and confidence of learners increased significantly immediately after training. However, overall pass rates for skills tests of learners after training were low (3% pass rate for basic delivery and management of postpartum hemorrhage). The HMS BAB simulation-based training has potential to contribute to education of health care providers. We recommend a full day of training and validation of the facilitators to improve the training. © 2013 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Fuzzy cognitive maps for issue identification in a water resources conflict resolution system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giordano, R.; Passarella, G.; Uricchio, V. F.; Vurro, M.

In water management, conflicts of interests are inevitable due to the variety in quality demands and the number of stakeholders, which are affected in different ways by decisions concerning the use of the resources. Ignoring the differences among interests involved in water resources management and not resolving the emerging conflicts could lead to controversial strategies. In such cases, proposed solutions could generate strong opposition, making these solutions unfeasible. In our contribution, a Community Decision Support System is proposed. Such a system is able to support discussion and collaboration. The system helps participants to structure their problem, to help them learn about possible alternatives, their constraints and implications and to support the participants in the specification of their own preferences. More in detail, the proposed system helps each user in representing and communicating problem perspectives. To reach this aim, cognitive maps are used to capture parts of the stakeholders’ point of view and to enhance negotiation among individuals and organizations. The aim of the negotiation process is to define a shared cognitive map with regard to water management problems. Such a map can be called a water community cognitive map. The system performance has been tested by simulating a real conflict on water resources management that occurred some years ago in a river basin in the south of Italy.

INFORM Lab: a testbed for high-level information fusion and resource management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valin, Pierre; Guitouni, Adel; Bossé, Eloi; Wehn, Hans; Happe, Jens

2011-05-01

DRDC Valcartier and MDA have created an advanced simulation testbed for the purpose of evaluating the effectiveness of Network Enabled Operations in a Coastal Wide Area Surveillance situation, with algorithms provided by several universities. This INFORM Lab testbed allows experimenting with high-level distributed information fusion, dynamic resource management and configuration management, given multiple constraints on the resources and their communications networks. This paper describes the architecture of INFORM Lab, the essential concepts of goals and situation evidence, a selected set of algorithms for distributed information fusion and dynamic resource management, as well as auto-configurable information fusion architectures. The testbed provides general services which include a multilayer plug-and-play architecture, and a general multi-agent framework based on John Boyd's OODA loop. The testbed's performance is demonstrated on 2 types of scenarios/vignettes for 1) cooperative search-and-rescue efforts, and 2) a noncooperative smuggling scenario involving many target ships and various methods of deceit. For each mission, an appropriate subset of Canadian airborne and naval platforms are dispatched to collect situation evidence, which is fused, and then used to modify the platform trajectories for the most efficient collection of further situation evidence. These platforms are fusion nodes which obey a Command and Control node hierarchy.

Spatially explicit control of invasive species using a reaction-diffusion model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bonneau, Mathieu; Johnson, Fred A.; Romagosa, Christina M.

2016-01-01

Invasive species, which can be responsible for severe economic and environmental damages, must often be managed over a wide area with limited resources, and the optimal allocation of effort in space and time can be challenging. If the spatial range of the invasive species is large, control actions might be applied only on some parcels of land, for example because of property type, accessibility, or limited human resources. Selecting the locations for control is critical and can significantly impact management efficiency. To help make decisions concerning the spatial allocation of control actions, we propose a simulation based approach, where the spatial distribution of the invader is approximated by a reaction–diffusion model. We extend the classic Fisher equation to incorporate the effect of control both in the diffusion and local growth of the invader. The modified reaction–diffusion model that we propose accounts for the effect of control, not only on the controlled locations, but on neighboring locations, which are based on the theoretical speed of the invasion front. Based on simulated examples, we show the superiority of our model compared to the state-of-the-art approach. We illustrate the use of this model for the management of Burmese pythons in the Everglades (Florida, USA). Thanks to the generality of the modified reaction–diffusion model, this framework is potentially suitable for a wide class of management problems and provides a tool for managers to predict the effects of different management strategies.

Resource management and operations in central North Dakota: Climate change scenario planning workshop summary November 12-13, 2015, Bismarck, ND

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fisichelli, Nicholas A.; Schuurman, Gregor; Symstad, Amy J.; Ray, Andrea; Friedman, Jonathan M.; Miller, Brian; Rowland, Erika

2016-01-01

The Scaling Climate Change Adaptation in the Northern Great Plains through Regional Climate Summaries and Local Qualitative-Quantitative Scenario Planning Workshops project synthesizes climate data into 3-5 distinct but plausible climate summaries for the northern Great Plains region; crafts quantitative summaries of these climate futures for two focal areas; and applies these local summaries by developing climate-resource-management scenarios through participatory workshops and, where possible, simulation models. The two focal areas are central North Dakota and southwest South Dakota (Figure 1). The primary objective of this project is to help resource managers and scientists in a focal area use scenario planning to make management and planning decisions based on assessments of critical future uncertainties.This report summarizes project work for public and tribal lands in the central North Dakota focal area, with an emphasis on Knife River Indian Villages National Historic Site. The report explainsscenario planning as an adaptation tool in general, then describes how it was applied to the central North Dakota focal area in three phases. Priority resource management and climate uncertainties were identified in the orientation phase. Local climate summaries for relevant, divergent, and challenging climate scenarios were developed in the second phase. In the final phase, a two-day scenario planning workshop held November 12-13, 2015 in Bismarck, ND, featured scenario development and implications, testing management decisions, and methods for operationalizing scenario planning outcomes.

Resource management and operations in southwest South Dakota: Climate change scenario planning workshop summary January 20-21, 2016, Rapid City, SD

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fisichelli, Nicholas A.; Schuurman, Gregor W.; Symstad, Amy J.; Ray, Andrea; Miller, Brian; Cross, Molly; Rowland, Erika

2016-01-01

The Scaling Climate Change Adaptation in the Northern Great Plains through Regional Climate Summaries and Local Qualitative-Quantitative Scenario Planning Workshops project synthesizes climate data into 3-5 distinct but plausible climate summaries for the northern Great Plains region; crafts quantitative summaries of these climate futures for two focal areas; and applies these local summaries by developing climate-resource-management scenarios through participatory workshops and, where possible, simulation models. The two focal areas are central North Dakota and southwest South Dakota (Figure 1). The primary objective of this project is to help resource managers and scientists in a focal area use scenario planning to make management and planning decisions based on assessments of critical future uncertainties.This report summarizes project work for public and tribal lands in the southwest South Dakota grasslands focal area, with an emphasis on Badlands National Park and Buffalo Gap National Grassland. The report explains scenario planning as an adaptation tool in general, then describes how it was applied to the focal area in three phases. Priority resource management and climate uncertainties were identified in the orientation phase. Local climate summaries for relevant, divergent, and challenging climate scenarios were developed in the second phase. In the final phase, a two-day scenario planning workshop held January 20-21, 2016 in Rapid City, South Dakota, featured scenario development and implications, testing management decisions, and methods for operationalizing scenario planning outcomes.

Two approaches for incorporating climate change into natural resource management planning at Wind Cave National Park

USGS Publications Warehouse

Symstad, Amy J.; Long, Andrew J.; Stamm, John; King, David A.; Bachelet, Dominque M.; Norton, Parker A.

2014-01-01

Wind Cave National Park (WICA) protects one of the world’s longest caves, has large amounts of high quality, native vegetation, and hosts a genetically important bison herd. The park’s relatively small size and unique purpose within its landscape requires hands-on management of these and other natural resources, all of which are interconnected. Anthropogenic climate change presents an added challenge to WICA natural resource management because it is characterized by large uncertainties, many of which are beyond the control of park and National Park Service (NPS) staff. When uncertainty is high and control of this uncertainty low, scenario planning is an appropriate tool for determining future actions. In 2009, members of the NPS obtained formal training in the use of scenario planning in order to evaluate it as a tool for incorporating climate change into NPS natural resource management planning. WICA served as one of two case studies used in this training exercise. Although participants in the training exercise agreed that the scenario planning process showed promise for its intended purpose, they were concerned that the process lacked the scientific rigor necessary to defend the management implications derived from it in the face of public scrutiny. This report addresses this concern and others by (1) providing a thorough description of the process of the 2009 scenario planning exercise, as well as its results and management implications for WICA; (2) presenting the results of a follow-up, scientific study that quantitatively simulated responses of WICA’s hydrological and ecological systems to specific climate projections; (3) placing these climate projections and the general climate scenarios used in the scenario planning exercise in the broader context of available climate projections; and (4) comparing the natural resource management implications derived from the two approaches. Wind Cave National Park (WICA) protects one of the world’s longest caves, has large amounts of high quality, native vegetation, and hosts a genetically important bison herd. The park’s relatively small size and unique purpose within its landscape requires hands-on management of these and other natural resources, all of which are interconnected. Anthropogenic climate change presents an added challenge to WICA natural resource management because it is characterized by large uncertainties, many of which are beyond the control of park and National Park Service (NPS) staff. When uncertainty is high and control of this uncertainty low, scenario planning is an appropriate tool for determining future actions. In 2009, members of the NPS obtained formal training in the use of scenario planning in order to evaluate it as a tool for incorporating climate change into NPS natural resource management planning. WICA served as one of two case studies used in this training exercise. Although participants in the training exercise agreed that the scenario planning process showed promise for its intended purpose, they were concerned that the process lacked the scientific rigor necessary to defend the management implications derived from it in the face of public scrutiny. This report addresses this concern and others by (1) providing a thorough description of the process of the 2009 scenario planning exercise, as well as its results and management implications for WICA; (2) presenting the results of a follow-up, scientific study that quantitatively simulated responses of WICA’s hydrological and ecological systems to specific climate projections; (3) placing these climate projections and the general climate scenarios used in the scenario planning exercise in the broader context of available climate projections; and (4) comparing the natural resource management implications derived from the two approaches.

Analyzing the water budget and hydrological characteristics and responses to land use in a monsoonal climate river basin in South China

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wu, Yiping; Chen, Ji

2013-01-01

Hydrological models have been increasingly used by hydrologists and water resource managers to understand natural processes and human activities that affect watersheds. In this study, we use the physically based model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), to investigate the hydrological processes in the East River Basin in South China, a coastal area dominated by monsoonal climate. The SWAT model was calibrated using 8-year (1973–1980) record of the daily streamflow at the basin outlet (Boluo station), and then validated using data collected during the subsequent 8 years (1981–1988). Statistical evaluation shows that SWAT can consistently simulate the streamflow of the East River with monthly Nash–Sutcliffe efficiencies of 0.93 for calibration and 0.90 for validation at the Boluo station. We analyzed the model simulations with calibrated parameters, presented the spatiotemporal distribution of the key hydrological components, and quantified their responses to different land uses. Watershed managers can use the results of this study to understand hydrological features and evaluate water resources of the East River in terms of sustainable development and effective management.

Land-use impacts on water resources and protected areas: applications of state-and-transition simulation modeling of future scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, T. S.; Sleeter, B. M.; Sherba, J.; Cameron, D.

2014-12-01

Human land use will increasingly contribute to habitat losses and water shortages in California, given future population projections and associated demand for agricultural land. Understanding how land-use change may impact future water use and where existing protected areas may be threatened by land-use conversion will be important if effective, sustainable management approaches are to be implemented. We used a state-and-transition simulation modeling (STSM) framework to simulate spatially-explicit (1 km2) historical (1992-2010) and future (2011-2060) land-use change for 52 California counties within the Mediterranean California ecoregion. Historical land use change estimates were derived from the Farmland Mapping and Monitoring Program (FMMP) dataset and attributed with county-level agricultural water-use data from the California Department of Water Resources (CDWR). Six future alternative land-use scenarios were developed and modeled using the historical land-use change estimates and land-use projections based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B1 scenarios. Resulting spatial land-use scenario outputs were combined based on scenario agreement and a land conversion threat index developed to evaluate vulnerability of existing protected areas. Modeled scenario output of county-level agricultural water use data were also summarized, enabling examination of alternative water use futures. We present results of two separate applications of STSM of land-use change, demonstrating the utility of STSM in analyzing land-use related impacts on water resources as well as potential threats to existing protected land. Exploring a range of alternative, yet plausible, land-use change impacts will help to better inform resource management and mitigation strategies.

Does the age of acute care physicians impact their (1) crisis management performance and (2) learning after simulation-based education? A protocol for a multicentre prospective cohort study in Toronto and Ottawa, Canada.

PubMed

Alam, Fahad; LeBlanc, Vicki R; Baxter, Alan; Tarshis, Jordan; Piquette, Dominique; Gu, Yuqi; Filipkowska, Caroline; Krywenky, Ashley; Kester-Greene, Nicole; Cardinal, Pierre; Au, Shelly; Lam, Sandy; Boet, Sylvain; Clinical Trials Group, Perioperative Anesthesia

2018-04-21

The proportion of older acute care physicians (ACPs) has been steadily increasing. Ageing is associated with physiological changes and prospective research investigating how such age-related physiological changes affect clinical performance, including crisis resource management (CRM) skills, is lacking. There is a gap in the literature on whether physician's age influences baseline CRM performance and also learning from simulation. We aim to investigate whether ageing is associated with baseline CRM skills of ACPs (emergency, critical care and anaesthesia) using simulated crisis scenarios and to assess whether ageing influences learning from simulation-based education. This is a prospective cohort multicentre study recruiting ACPs from the Universities of Toronto and Ottawa, Canada. Each participant will manage an advanced cardiovascular life support crisis-simulated scenario (pretest) and then be debriefed on their CRM skills. They will then manage another simulated crisis scenario (immediate post-test). Three months after, participants will return to manage a third simulated crisis scenario (retention post-test). The relationship between biological age and chronological age will be assessed by measuring the participants CRM skills and their ability to learn from high-fidelity simulation. This protocol was approved by Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre Research Ethics Board (REB Number 140-2015) and the Ottawa Health Science Network Research Ethics Board (#20150173-01H). The results will be disseminated in a peer-reviewed journal and at scientific meetings. NCT02683447; Pre-results. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

The art and science of debriefing in simulation: Ideal and practice.

PubMed

Dieckmann, Peter; Molin Friis, Susanne; Lippert, Anne; Ostergaard, Doris

2009-07-01

Describing what simulation centre leaders see as the ideal debriefing for different simulator courses (medical vs. crisis resource management (CRM)-oriented). Describing the practice of debriefing based on interactions between instructors and training participants. Study 1 - Electronic questionnaire on the relevance of different roles of the medical teacher for debriefing (facilitator, role model, information provider, assessor, planner, resource developer) sent to simulation centre leaders. Study 2 - Observation study using a paper-and-pencil tool to code interactions during debriefings in simulation courses for CRM for content (medical vs. CRM-oriented) and type (question vs. utterance). Study 1 - The different roles were seen as equally important for both course types with the exception of 'information provider' which was seen as more relevant for medical courses. Study 2 - There were different interaction patterns during debriefings: line - involving mostly the instructor and one course participant, triangle - instructor and two participants, fan - instructor and all participants in a dyadic form and net - all participants and the instructor with cross references. What simulation centre heads think is important for the role mix of simulation instructors is (at least partly) not reflected in debriefing practice.

Validating the soil vulnerability index for a claypan watershed

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Assessment studies of conservation efforts have shown that best management practices were not always implemented in the most vulnerable areas where they are most needed. While complex computer simulation models can be used to identify these areas, resources needed for using such models are beyond re...

Exploring Tradeoffs in Demand-side and Supply-side Management of Urban Water Resources using Agent-based Modeling and Evolutionary Computation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kanta, L.; Berglund, E. Z.

2015-12-01

Urban water supply systems may be managed through supply-side and demand-side strategies, which focus on water source expansion and demand reductions, respectively. Supply-side strategies bear infrastructure and energy costs, while demand-side strategies bear costs of implementation and inconvenience to consumers. To evaluate the performance of demand-side strategies, the participation and water use adaptations of consumers should be simulated. In this study, a Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS) framework is developed to simulate consumer agents that change their consumption to affect the withdrawal from the water supply system, which, in turn influences operational policies and long-term resource planning. Agent-based models are encoded to represent consumers and a policy maker agent and are coupled with water resources system simulation models. The CAS framework is coupled with an evolutionary computation-based multi-objective methodology to explore tradeoffs in cost, inconvenience to consumers, and environmental impacts for both supply-side and demand-side strategies. Decisions are identified to specify storage levels in a reservoir that trigger (1) increases in the volume of water pumped through inter-basin transfers from an external reservoir and (2) drought stages, which restrict the volume of water that is allowed for residential outdoor uses. The proposed methodology is demonstrated for Arlington, Texas, water supply system to identify non-dominated strategies for an historic drought decade. Results demonstrate that pumping costs associated with maximizing environmental reliability exceed pumping costs associated with minimizing restrictions on consumer water use.

SMART: A Spatially Explicit Bio-Economic Model for Assessing and Managing Demersal Fisheries, with an Application to Italian Trawlers in the Strait of Sicily

PubMed Central

Russo, Tommaso; Parisi, Antonio; Garofalo, Germana; Gristina, Michele; Cataudella, Stefano; Fiorentino, Fabio

2014-01-01

Management of catches, effort and exploitation pattern are considered the most effective measures to control fishing mortality and ultimately ensure productivity and sustainability of fisheries. Despite the growing concerns about the spatial dimension of fisheries, the distribution of resources and fishing effort in space is seldom considered in assessment and management processes. Here we propose SMART (Spatial MAnagement of demersal Resources for Trawl fisheries), a tool for assessing bio-economic feedback in different management scenarios. SMART combines information from different tasks gathered within the European Data Collection Framework on fisheries and is composed of: 1) spatial models of fishing effort, environmental characteristics and distribution of demersal resources; 2) an Artificial Neural Network which captures the relationships among these aspects in a spatially explicit way and uses them to predict resources abundances; 3) a deterministic module which analyzes the size structure of catches and the associated revenues, according to different spatially-based management scenarios. SMART is applied to demersal fishery in the Strait of Sicily, one of the most productive fisheries of the Mediterranean Sea. Three of the main target species are used as proxies for the whole range exploited by trawlers. After training, SMART is used to evaluate different management scenarios, including spatial closures, using a simulation approach that mimics the recent exploitation patterns. Results evidence good model performance, with a noteworthy coherence and reliability of outputs for the different components. Among others, the main finding is that a partial improvement in resource conditions can be achieved by means of nursery closures, even if the overall fishing effort in the area remains stable. Accordingly, a series of strategically designed areas of trawling closures could significantly improve the resource conditions of demersal fisheries in the Strait of Sicily, also supporting sustainable economic returns for fishermen if not applied simultaneously for different species. PMID:24465971

Development of Hydro-Informatic Modelling System and its Application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Z.; Liu, C.; Zheng, H.; Zhang, L.; Wu, X.

2009-12-01

The understanding of hydrological cycle is the core of hydrology and the scientific base of water resources management. Meanwhile, simulation of hydrological cycle has long been regarded as an important tool for the assessment, utilization and protection of water resources. In this paper, a new tool named Hydro-Informatic Modelling System (HIMS) has been developed and introduced with case studies in the Yellow River Basin in China and 331 catchments in Australia. The case studies showed that HIMS can be employed as an integrated platform for hydrological simulation in different regions. HIMS is a modular based framework of hydrological model designed for different utilization such as flood forecasting, water resources planning and evaluating hydrological impacts of climate change and human activities. The unique of HIMS is its flexibility in providing alternative modules in the simulation of hydrological cycle, which successfully overcome the difficulties in the availability of input data, the uncertainty of parameters, and the difference of rainfall-runoff processes. The modular based structure of HIMS makes it possible for developing new hydrological models by the users.

Data mining to support simulation modeling of patient flow in hospitals.

PubMed

Isken, Mark W; Rajagopalan, Balaji

2002-04-01

Spiraling health care costs in the United States are driving institutions to continually address the challenge of optimizing the use of scarce resources. One of the first steps towards optimizing resources is to utilize capacity effectively. For hospital capacity planning problems such as allocation of inpatient beds, computer simulation is often the method of choice. One of the more difficult aspects of using simulation models for such studies is the creation of a manageable set of patient types to include in the model. The objective of this paper is to demonstrate the potential of using data mining techniques, specifically clustering techniques such as K-means, to help guide the development of patient type definitions for purposes of building computer simulation or analytical models of patient flow in hospitals. Using data from a hospital in the Midwest this study brings forth several important issues that researchers need to address when applying clustering techniques in general and specifically to hospital data.

Wind power forecasting for a real onshore wind farm on complex terrain using WRF high resolution simulations.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ángel Prósper Fernández, Miguel; Casal, Carlos Otero; Canoura Fernández, Felipe; Miguez-Macho, Gonzalo

2017-04-01

Regional meteorological models are becoming a generalized tool for forecasting wind resource, due to their capacity to simulate local flow dynamics impacting wind farm production. This study focuses on the production forecast and validation of a real onshore wind farm using high horizontal and vertical resolution WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) model simulations. The wind farm is located in Galicia, in the northwest of Spain, in a complex terrain region with high wind resource. Utilizing the Fitch scheme, specific for wind farms, a period of one year is simulated with a daily operational forecasting set-up. Power and wind predictions are obtained and compared with real data provided by the management company. Results show that WRF is able to yield good wind power operational predictions for this kind of wind farms, due to a good representation of the planetary boundary layer behaviour of the region and the good performance of the Fitch scheme under these conditions.

Technical-economic modelling of integrated water management: wastewater reuse in a French island.

PubMed

Xu, P; Valette, F; Brissaud, F; Fazio, A; Lazarova, V

2001-01-01

An integrated technical-economic model is used to address water management issues in the French island of Noirmoutier. The model simulates potable water production and supply, potable and non potable water demand and consumption, wastewater collection, treatment and disposal, water storage, transportation and reuse. A variety of water management scenarios is assessed through technical, economic and environmental evaluation. The scenarios include wastewater reclamation and reuse for agricultural and landscape irrigation as well as domestic non potable application, desalination of seawater and brackish groundwater for potable water supply. The study shows that, in Noirmoutier, wastewater reclamation and reuse for crop irrigation is the most cost-effective solution to the lack of water resources and the protection of sensitive environment. Some water management projects which are regarded as having less economic benefit in the short-term may become competitive in the future, as a result of tightened environmental policy, changed public attitudes and advanced water treatment technologies. The model provides an appropriate tool for water resources planning and management.

Integrated wetland management: an analysis with group model building based on system dynamics model.

PubMed

Chen, Hsin; Chang, Yang-Chi; Chen, Kung-Chen

2014-12-15

The wetland system possesses diverse functions such as preserving water sources, mediating flooding, providing habitats for wildlife and stabilizing coastlines. Nonetheless, rapid economic growth and the increasing population have significantly deteriorated the wetland environment. To secure the sustainability of the wetland, it is essential to introduce integrated and systematic management. This paper examines the resource management of the Jiading Wetland by applying group model building (GMB) and system dynamics (SD). We systematically identify local stakeholders' mental model regarding the impact brought by the yacht industry, and further establish a SD model to simulate the dynamic wetland environment. The GMB process improves the stakeholders' understanding about the interaction between the wetland environment and management policies. Differences between the stakeholders' perceptions and the behaviors shown by the SD model also suggest that our analysis would facilitate the stakeholders to broaden their horizons and achieve consensus on the wetland resource management. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Land Use Management in the Panama Canal Watershed to Maximize Hydrologic Ecosystem Services Benefits: Explicit Simulation of Preferential Flow Paths in an HPC Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Regina, J. A.; Ogden, F. L.; Steinke, R. C.; Frazier, N.; Cheng, Y.; Zhu, J.

2017-12-01

Preferential flow paths (PFP) resulting from biotic and abiotic factors contribute significantly to the generation of runoff in moist lowland tropical watersheds. Flow through PFPs represents the dominant mechanism by which land use choices affect hydrological behavior. The relative influence of PFP varies depending upon land-use management practices. Assessing the possible effects of land-use and landcover change on flows, and other ecosystem services, in the humid tropics partially depends on adequate simulation of PFP across different land-uses. Currently, 5% of global trade passes through the Panama Canal, which is supplied with fresh water from the Panama Canal Watershed. A third set of locks, recently constructed, are expected to double the capacity of the Canal. We incorporated explicit simulation of PFPs in to the ADHydro HPC distributed hydrological model to simulate the effects of land-use and landcover change due to land management incentives on water resources availability in the Panama Canal Watershed. These simulations help to test hypotheses related to the effectiveness of various proposed payments for ecosystem services schemes. This presentation will focus on hydrological model formulation and performance in an HPC environment.

Job Scheduling with Efficient Resource Monitoring in Cloud Datacenter

PubMed Central

Loganathan, Shyamala; Mukherjee, Saswati

2015-01-01

Cloud computing is an on-demand computing model, which uses virtualization technology to provide cloud resources to users in the form of virtual machines through internet. Being an adaptable technology, cloud computing is an excellent alternative for organizations for forming their own private cloud. Since the resources are limited in these private clouds maximizing the utilization of resources and giving the guaranteed service for the user are the ultimate goal. For that, efficient scheduling is needed. This research reports on an efficient data structure for resource management and resource scheduling technique in a private cloud environment and discusses a cloud model. The proposed scheduling algorithm considers the types of jobs and the resource availability in its scheduling decision. Finally, we conducted simulations using CloudSim and compared our algorithm with other existing methods, like V-MCT and priority scheduling algorithms. PMID:26473166

Job Scheduling with Efficient Resource Monitoring in Cloud Datacenter.

PubMed

Loganathan, Shyamala; Mukherjee, Saswati

2015-01-01

Cloud computing is an on-demand computing model, which uses virtualization technology to provide cloud resources to users in the form of virtual machines through internet. Being an adaptable technology, cloud computing is an excellent alternative for organizations for forming their own private cloud. Since the resources are limited in these private clouds maximizing the utilization of resources and giving the guaranteed service for the user are the ultimate goal. For that, efficient scheduling is needed. This research reports on an efficient data structure for resource management and resource scheduling technique in a private cloud environment and discusses a cloud model. The proposed scheduling algorithm considers the types of jobs and the resource availability in its scheduling decision. Finally, we conducted simulations using CloudSim and compared our algorithm with other existing methods, like V-MCT and priority scheduling algorithms.

Cyberinfrastructure for End-to-End Environmental Explorations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Merwade, V.; Kumar, S.; Song, C.; Zhao, L.; Govindaraju, R.; Niyogi, D.

2007-12-01

The design and implementation of a cyberinfrastructure for End-to-End Environmental Exploration (C4E4) is presented. The C4E4 framework addresses the need for an integrated data/computation platform for studying broad environmental impacts by combining heterogeneous data resources with state-of-the-art modeling and visualization tools. With Purdue being a TeraGrid Resource Provider, C4E4 builds on top of the Purdue TeraGrid data management system and Grid resources, and integrates them through a service-oriented workflow system. It allows researchers to construct environmental workflows for data discovery, access, transformation, modeling, and visualization. Using the C4E4 framework, we have implemented an end-to-end SWAT simulation and analysis workflow that connects our TeraGrid data and computation resources. It enables researchers to conduct comprehensive studies on the impact of land management practices in the St. Joseph watershed using data from various sources in hydrologic, atmospheric, agricultural, and other related disciplines.

A flexible simulation platform to quantify and manage emergency department crowding.

PubMed

Hurwitz, Joshua E; Lee, Jo Ann; Lopiano, Kenneth K; McKinley, Scott A; Keesling, James; Tyndall, Joseph A

2014-06-09

Hospital-based Emergency Departments are struggling to provide timely care to a steadily increasing number of unscheduled ED visits. Dwindling compensation and rising ED closures dictate that meeting this challenge demands greater operational efficiency. Using techniques from operations research theory, as well as a novel event-driven algorithm for processing priority queues, we developed a flexible simulation platform for hospital-based EDs. We tuned the parameters of the system to mimic U.S. nationally average and average academic hospital-based ED performance metrics and are able to assess a variety of patient flow outcomes including patient door-to-event times, propensity to leave without being seen, ED occupancy level, and dynamic staffing and resource use. The causes of ED crowding are variable and require site-specific solutions. For example, in a nationally average ED environment, provider availability is a surprising, but persistent bottleneck in patient flow. As a result, resources expended in reducing boarding times may not have the expected impact on patient throughput. On the other hand, reallocating resources into alternate care pathways can dramatically expedite care for lower acuity patients without delaying care for higher acuity patients. In an average academic ED environment, bed availability is the primary bottleneck in patient flow. Consequently, adjustments to provider scheduling have a limited effect on the timeliness of care delivery, while shorter boarding times significantly reduce crowding. An online version of the simulation platform is available at http://spark.rstudio.com/klopiano/EDsimulation/. In building this robust simulation framework, we have created a novel decision-support tool that ED and hospital managers can use to quantify the impact of proposed changes to patient flow prior to implementation.

Integrated groundwater resource management in Indus Basin using satellite gravimetry and physical modeling tools.

PubMed

Iqbal, Naveed; Hossain, Faisal; Lee, Hyongki; Akhter, Gulraiz

2017-03-01

Reliable and frequent information on groundwater behavior and dynamics is very important for effective groundwater resource management at appropriate spatial scales. This information is rarely available in developing countries and thus poses a challenge for groundwater managers. The in situ data and groundwater modeling tools are limited in their ability to cover large domains. Remote sensing technology can now be used to continuously collect information on hydrological cycle in a cost-effective way. This study evaluates the effectiveness of a remote sensing integrated physical modeling approach for groundwater management in Indus Basin. The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Satellite (GRACE)-based gravity anomalies from 2003 to 2010 were processed to generate monthly groundwater storage changes using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model. The groundwater storage is the key parameter of interest for groundwater resource management. The spatial and temporal patterns in groundwater storage (GWS) are useful for devising the appropriate groundwater management strategies. GRACE-estimated GWS information with large-scale coverage is valuable for basin-scale monitoring and decision making. This frequently available information is found useful for the identification of groundwater recharge areas, groundwater storage depletion, and pinpointing of the areas where groundwater sustainability is at risk. The GWS anomalies were found to favorably agree with groundwater model simulations from Visual MODFLOW and in situ data. Mostly, a moderate to severe GWS depletion is observed causing a vulnerable situation to the sustainability of this groundwater resource. For the sustainable groundwater management, the region needs to implement groundwater policies and adopt water conservation techniques.

Cooperative fault-tolerant distributed computing U.S. Department of Energy Grant DE-FG02-02ER25537 Final Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sunderam, Vaidy S.

2007-01-09

The Harness project has developed novel software frameworks for the execution of high-end simulations in a fault-tolerant manner on distributed resources. The H2O subsystem comprises the kernel of the Harness framework, and controls the key functions of resource management across multiple administrative domains, especially issues of access and allocation. It is based on a “pluggable” architecture that enables the aggregated use of distributed heterogeneous resources for high performance computing. The major contributions of the Harness II project result in significantly enhancing the overall computational productivity of high-end scientific applications by enabling robust, failure-resilient computations on cooperatively pooled resource collections.

Integrated Modeling, Mapping, and Simulation (IMMS) Framework for Exercise and Response Planning

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mapar, Jalal; Hoette, Trisha; Mahrous, Karim; Pancerella, Carmen M.; Plantenga, Todd; Yang, Christine; Yang, Lynn; Hopmeier, Michael

2011-01-01

EmergenCy management personnel at federal, stale, and local levels can benefit from the increased situational awareness and operational efficiency afforded by simulation and modeling for emergency preparedness, including planning, training and exercises. To support this goal, the Department of Homeland Security's Science & Technology Directorate is funding the Integrated Modeling, Mapping, and Simulation (IMMS) program to create an integrating framework that brings together diverse models for use by the emergency response community. SUMMIT, one piece of the IMMS program, is the initial software framework that connects users such as emergency planners and exercise developers with modeling resources, bridging the gap in expertise and technical skills between these two communities. SUMMIT was recently deployed to support exercise planning for National Level Exercise 2010. Threat, casualty. infrastructure, and medical surge models were combined within SUMMIT to estimate health care resource requirements for the exercise ground truth.

Interaction and Impact Studies for Distributed Energy Resource, Transactive Energy, and Electric Grid, using High Performance Computing ?based Modeling and Simulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kelley, B. M.

The electric utility industry is undergoing significant transformations in its operation model, including a greater emphasis on automation, monitoring technologies, and distributed energy resource management systems (DERMS). With these changes and new technologies, while driving greater efficiencies and reliability, these new models may introduce new vectors of cyber attack. The appropriate cybersecurity controls to address and mitigate these newly introduced attack vectors and potential vulnerabilities are still widely unknown and performance of the control is difficult to vet. This proposal argues that modeling and simulation (M&S) is a necessary tool to address and better understand these problems introduced by emergingmore » technologies for the grid. M&S will provide electric utilities a platform to model its transmission and distribution systems and run various simulations against the model to better understand the operational impact and performance of cybersecurity controls.« less

Understanding and managing the effects of groundwater pumping on streamflow

USGS Publications Warehouse

Leake, Stanley A.; Barlow, Paul M.

2013-01-01

Groundwater is a critical resource in the United States because it provides drinking water, irrigates crops, supports industry, and is a source of water for rivers, streams, lakes, and springs. Wells that pump water out of aquifers can reduce the amount of groundwater that flows into rivers and streams, which can have detrimental impacts on aquatic ecosystems and the availability of surface water. Estimation of rates, locations, and timing of streamflow depletion due to groundwater pumping is needed for water-resource managers and users throughout the United States, but the complexity of groundwater and surface-water systems and their interactions presents a major challenge. The understanding of streamflow depletion and evaluation of water-management practices have improved during recent years through the use of computer models that simulate aquifer conditions and the effects of pumping groundwater on streams.

Economic resilience through "One-Water" management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hanson, Randall T.; Schmid, Wolfgang

2013-01-01

Disruption of water availability leads to food scarcity and loss of economic opportunity. Development of effective water-resource policies and management strategies could provide resiliance to local economies in the face of water disruptions such as drought, flood, and climate change. To accomplish this, a detailed understanding of human water use and natural water resource availability is needed. A hydrologic model is a computer software system that simulates the movement and use of water in a geographic area. It takes into account all components of the water cycle--“One Water”--and helps estimate water budgets for groundwater, surface water, and landscape features. The U.S. Geological Survey MODFLOW One-Water Integrated Hydrologic Model (MODFLOWOWHM) software and scientific methods can provide water managers and political leaders with hydrologic information they need to help ensure water security and economic resilience.

Data mining for multiagent rules, strategies, and fuzzy decision tree structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, James F., III; Rhyne, Robert D., II; Fisher, Kristin

2002-03-01

A fuzzy logic based resource manager (RM) has been developed that automatically allocates electronic attack resources in real-time over many dissimilar platforms. Two different data mining algorithms have been developed to determine rules, strategies, and fuzzy decision tree structure. The first data mining algorithm uses a genetic algorithm as a data mining function and is called from an electronic game. The game allows a human expert to play against the resource manager in a simulated battlespace with each of the defending platforms being exclusively directed by the fuzzy resource manager and the attacking platforms being controlled by the human expert or operating autonomously under their own logic. This approach automates the data mining problem. The game automatically creates a database reflecting the domain expert's knowledge. It calls a data mining function, a genetic algorithm, for data mining of the database as required and allows easy evaluation of the information mined in the second step. The criterion for re- optimization is discussed as well as experimental results. Then a second data mining algorithm that uses a genetic program as a data mining function is introduced to automatically discover fuzzy decision tree structures. Finally, a fuzzy decision tree generated through this process is discussed.

Knowledge discovery through games and game theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, James F., III; Rhyne, Robert D.

2001-03-01

A fuzzy logic based expert system has been developed that automatically allocates electronic attack (EA) resources in real-time over many dissimilar platforms. The platforms can be very general, e.g., ships, planes, robots, land based facilities, etc. Potential foes the platforms deal with can also be general. The initial version of the algorithm was optimized using a genetic algorithm employing fitness functions constructed based on expertise. A new approach is being explored that involves embedding the resource manager in a electronic game environment. The game allows a human expert to play against the resource manager in a simulated battlespace with each of the defending platforms being exclusively directed by the fuzzy resource manager and the attacking platforms being controlled by the human expert or operating autonomously under their own logic. This approach automates the data mining problem. The game automatically creates a database reflecting the domain expert's knowledge, it calls a data mining function, a genetic algorithm, for data mining of the database as required. The game allows easy evaluation of the information mined in the second step. The measure of effectiveness (MOE) for re-optimization is discussed. The mined information is extremely valuable as shown through demanding scenarios.

Applicability of land use models for the Houston area test site

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Petersburg, R. K.; Bradford, L. H.

1973-01-01

Descriptions of land use models are presented which were considered for their applicability to the Houston Area Test Site. These models are representative both of the prevailing theories of land use dynamics and of basic approaches to simulation. The models considered are: a model of metropolis, land use simulation model, emperic land use forecasting model, a probabilistic model for residential growth, and the regional environmental management allocation process. Sources of environmental/resource information are listed.

Effect of high-fidelity shoulder dystocia simulation on emergency obstetric skills and crew resource management skills among residents.

PubMed

Mannella, Paolo; Palla, Giulia; Cuttano, Armando; Boldrini, Antonio; Simoncini, Tommaso

2016-12-01

To determine the effect of a simulation training program for residents in obstetrics and gynecology in terms of technical and nontechnical skills for the management of shoulder dystocia. A prospective study was performed at a center in Italy in April-May 2015. Thirty-two obstetrics and gynecology residents were divided into two groups. Residents in the control group were immediately exposed to an emergency shoulder dystocia scenario, whereas those in the simulation group completed a 2-hour training session with the simulator before being exposed to the scenario. After 8weeks, the residents were again exposed to the shoulder dystocia scenario and reassessed. Participants were scored on their demonstration of technical and nontechnical skills. In the first set of scenarios, the mean score was higher in the simulation group than the control group in terms of both technical skills (P=0.008) and nontechnical skills (P<0.001). This difference was retained after 8weeks. High-fidelity simulation programs could be used for the training of residents in obstetrics and gynecology to diagnose and manage obstetric emergencies such as shoulder dystocia. Copyright © 2016 International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Guidelines for line-oriented flight training, volume 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lauber, J. K.; Foushee, H. C.

1981-01-01

Current approaches to line-oriented flight training used by six American airlines are described. This recurrent training methodology makes use of a full-crew and full-mission simulation to teach and assess resource management skills, but does not necessarily fulfill requirements for the training and manipulation of all skills.

Evaluation of satellite-based, modeled-derived daily solar radiation data for the continental U.S.

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Many applications of simulation models and related decision support tools for agriculture and natural resource management require daily meteorological data as inputs. Availability and quality of such data, however, often constrain research and decision support activities that require use of these to...

CHEMFLO-2000: INTERACTIVE SOFTWARE FOR SIMULATING WATER AND CHEMICAL MOVEMENT IN UNSATURATED SOILS

EPA Science Inventory

The movement of water and chemicals into and through soils has a large impact upon our environment and the entire ecosystem. Understanding these processes is of great importance in managing, utilizing, and protecting our natural resources. This software was written to enhance our...

Watermark: An Application and Methodology and Application for Interactive and intelligent Decision Support for Groundwater Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pierce, S. A.; Wagner, K.; Schwartz, S.; Gentle, J. N., Jr.

2016-12-01

Critical water resources face the effects of historic drought, increased demand, and potential contamination, the need has never been greater to develop resources to effectively communicate conservation and protection across a broad audience and geographical area. The Watermark application and macro-analysis methodology merges topical analysis of context rich corpus from policy texts with multi-attributed solution sets from integrated models of water resource and other subsystems, such as mineral, food, energy, or environmental systems to construct a scalable, robust, and reproducible approach for identifying links between policy and science knowledge bases. The Watermark application is an open-source, interactive workspace to support science-based visualization and decision making. Designed with generalization in mind, Watermark is a flexible platform that allows for data analysis and inclusion of large datasets with an interactive front-end capable of connecting with other applications as well as advanced computing resources. In addition, the Watermark analysis methodology offers functionality that streamlines communication with non-technical users for policy, education, or engagement with groups around scientific topics of societal relevance. The technology stack for Watermark was selected with the goal of creating a robust and dynamic modular codebase that can be adjusted to fit many use cases and scale to support usage loads that range between simple data display to complex scientific simulation-based modelling and analytics. The methodology uses to topical analysis and simulation-optimization to systematically analyze the policy and management realities of resource systems and explicitly connect the social and problem contexts with science-based and engineering knowledge from models. A case example demonstrates use in a complex groundwater resources management study highlighting multi-criteria spatial decision making and uncertainty comparisons.

ADHydro: A Large-scale High Resolution Multi-Physics Distributed Water Resources Model for Water Resource Simulations in a Parallel Computing Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

lai, W.; Steinke, R. C.; Ogden, F. L.

2013-12-01

Physics-based watershed models are useful tools for hydrologic studies, water resources management and economic analyses in the contexts of climate, land-use, and water-use changes. This poster presents development of a physics-based, high-resolution, distributed water resources model suitable for simulating large watersheds in a massively parallel computing environment. Developing this model is one of the objectives of the NSF EPSCoR RII Track II CI-WATER project, which is joint between Wyoming and Utah. The model, which we call ADHydro, is aimed at simulating important processes in the Rocky Mountain west, includes: rainfall and infiltration, snowfall and snowmelt in complex terrain, vegetation and evapotranspiration, soil heat flux and freezing, overland flow, channel flow, groundwater flow and water management. The ADHydro model uses the explicit finite volume method to solve PDEs for 2D overland flow, 2D saturated groundwater flow coupled to 1D channel flow. The model has a quasi-3D formulation that couples 2D overland flow and 2D saturated groundwater flow using the 1D Talbot-Ogden finite water-content infiltration and redistribution model. This eliminates difficulties in solving the highly nonlinear 3D Richards equation, while the finite volume Talbot-Ogden infiltration solution is computationally efficient, guaranteed to conserve mass, and allows simulation of the effect of near-surface groundwater tables on runoff generation. The process-level components of the model are being individually tested and validated. The model as a whole will be tested on the Green River basin in Wyoming and ultimately applied to the entire Upper Colorado River basin. ADHydro development has necessitated development of tools for large-scale watershed modeling, including open-source workflow steps to extract hydromorphological information from GIS data, integrate hydrometeorological and water management forcing input, and post-processing and visualization of large output data sets. The ADHydro model will be coupled with relevant components of the NOAH-MP land surface scheme and the WRF mesoscale meteorological model. Model objectives include well documented Application Programming Interfaces (APIs) to facilitate modifications and additions by others. We will release the model as open-source in 2014 and begin establishing a users' community.

Improving Project Management with Simulation and Completion Distribution Functions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cates, Grant R.

2004-01-01

Despite the critical importance of project completion timeliness, management practices in place today remain inadequate for addressing the persistent problem of project completion tardiness. A major culprit in late projects is uncertainty, which most, if not all, projects are inherently subject to. This uncertainty resides in the estimates for activity durations, the occurrence of unplanned and unforeseen events, and the availability of critical resources. In response to this problem, this research developed a comprehensive simulation based methodology for conducting quantitative project completion time risk analysis. It is called the Project Assessment by Simulation Technique (PAST). This new tool enables project stakeholders to visualize uncertainty or risk, i.e. the likelihood of their project completing late and the magnitude of the lateness, by providing them with a completion time distribution function of their projects. Discrete event simulation is used within PAST to determine the completion distribution function for the project of interest. The simulation is populated with both deterministic and stochastic elements. The deterministic inputs include planned project activities, precedence requirements, and resource requirements. The stochastic inputs include activity duration growth distributions, probabilities for events that can impact the project, and other dynamic constraints that may be placed upon project activities and milestones. These stochastic inputs are based upon past data from similar projects. The time for an entity to complete the simulation network, subject to both the deterministic and stochastic factors, represents the time to complete the project. Repeating the simulation hundreds or thousands of times allows one to create the project completion distribution function. The Project Assessment by Simulation Technique was demonstrated to be effective for the on-going NASA project to assemble the International Space Station. Approximately $500 million per month is being spent on this project, which is scheduled to complete by 2010. NASA project stakeholders participated in determining and managing completion distribution functions produced from PAST. The first result was that project stakeholders improved project completion risk awareness. Secondly, using PAST, mitigation options were analyzed to improve project completion performance and reduce total project cost.

An agent-based simulation combined with group decision-making technique for improving the performance of an emergency department.

PubMed

Yousefi, M; Ferreira, R P M

2017-03-30

This study presents an agent-based simulation modeling in an emergency department. In a traditional approach, a supervisor (or a manager) allocates the resources (receptionist, nurses, doctors, etc.) to different sections based on personal experience or by using decision-support tools. In this study, each staff agent took part in the process of allocating resources based on their observation in their respective sections, which gave the system the advantage of utilizing all the available human resources during the workday by being allocated to a different section. In this simulation, unlike previous studies, all staff agents took part in the decision-making process to re-allocate the resources in the emergency department. The simulation modeled the behavior of patients, receptionists, triage nurses, emergency room nurses and doctors. Patients were able to decide whether to stay in the system or leave the department at any stage of treatment. In order to evaluate the performance of this approach, 6 different scenarios were introduced. In each scenario, various key performance indicators were investigated before and after applying the group decision-making. The outputs of each simulation were number of deaths, number of patients who leave the emergency department without being attended, length of stay, waiting time and total number of discharged patients from the emergency department. Applying the self-organizing approach in the simulation showed an average of 12.7 and 14.4% decrease in total waiting time and number of patients who left without being seen, respectively. The results showed an average increase of 11.5% in total number of discharged patients from emergency department.

An agent-based simulation combined with group decision-making technique for improving the performance of an emergency department

PubMed Central

Yousefi, M.; Ferreira, R.P.M.

2017-01-01

This study presents an agent-based simulation modeling in an emergency department. In a traditional approach, a supervisor (or a manager) allocates the resources (receptionist, nurses, doctors, etc.) to different sections based on personal experience or by using decision-support tools. In this study, each staff agent took part in the process of allocating resources based on their observation in their respective sections, which gave the system the advantage of utilizing all the available human resources during the workday by being allocated to a different section. In this simulation, unlike previous studies, all staff agents took part in the decision-making process to re-allocate the resources in the emergency department. The simulation modeled the behavior of patients, receptionists, triage nurses, emergency room nurses and doctors. Patients were able to decide whether to stay in the system or leave the department at any stage of treatment. In order to evaluate the performance of this approach, 6 different scenarios were introduced. In each scenario, various key performance indicators were investigated before and after applying the group decision-making. The outputs of each simulation were number of deaths, number of patients who leave the emergency department without being attended, length of stay, waiting time and total number of discharged patients from the emergency department. Applying the self-organizing approach in the simulation showed an average of 12.7 and 14.4% decrease in total waiting time and number of patients who left without being seen, respectively. The results showed an average increase of 11.5% in total number of discharged patients from emergency department. PMID:28380196

Managing human error in aviation.

PubMed

Helmreich, R L

1997-05-01

Crew resource management (CRM) programs were developed to address team and leadership aspects of piloting modern airplanes. The goal is to reduce errors through team work. Human factors research and social, cognitive, and organizational psychology are used to develop programs tailored for individual airlines. Flight crews study accident case histories, group dynamics, and human error. Simulators provide pilots with the opportunity to solve complex flight problems. CRM in the simulator is called line-oriented flight training (LOFT). In automated cockpits CRM promotes the idea of automation as a crew member. Cultural aspects of aviation include professional, business, and national culture. The aviation CRM model has been adapted for training surgeons and operating room staff in human factors.

Contribution to the hydrodynamic modeling of groundwater in the Ain El Bel syncline Wilaya of Djelfa (Algeria)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azlaoui, Mohamed; Nezli, Imed Eddine; Djelita, Belkhier; Boutoutaou, Djamel

2017-02-01

In arid and semi-arid areas, the protection and preservation of water resources is based on integrated resource managements, which will prove a fruitful way to deal with pollution and shortage of water-the source of life for man on Earth. Djelfa region, and particularly Ain El Bel, the potential water has not able to satisfy human needs,and agriculture, and industry. This article is a contribution to hydrodynamic modeling of the Barremian aquifer of Ain El Bel syncline, with "Modflow" software wich provides a deterministic two-dimensional numerical simulation in steady state and transient of underground water in the studied aquifer. The main results provided a better view of different scenarios to the piezometrics fluctuations. The established predictions show an alarming state of this aquifer, where the need for integrated management of groundwater resources is, to ensure sustainable development.

Optimizing Sustainable Geothermal Heat Extraction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patel, Iti; Bielicki, Jeffrey; Buscheck, Thomas

2016-04-01

Geothermal heat, though renewable, can be depleted over time if the rate of heat extraction exceeds the natural rate of renewal. As such, the sustainability of a geothermal resource is typically viewed as preserving the energy of the reservoir by weighing heat extraction against renewability. But heat that is extracted from a geothermal reservoir is used to provide a service to society and an economic gain to the provider of that service. For heat extraction used for market commodities, sustainability entails balancing the rate at which the reservoir temperature renews with the rate at which heat is extracted and converted into economic profit. We present a model for managing geothermal resources that combines simulations of geothermal reservoir performance with natural resource economics in order to develop optimal heat mining strategies. Similar optimal control approaches have been developed for managing other renewable resources, like fisheries and forests. We used the Non-isothermal Unsaturated-saturated Flow and Transport (NUFT) model to simulate the performance of a sedimentary geothermal reservoir under a variety of geologic and operational situations. The results of NUFT are integrated into the optimization model to determine the extraction path over time that maximizes the net present profit given the performance of the geothermal resource. Results suggest that the discount rate that is used to calculate the net present value of economic gain is a major determinant of the optimal extraction path, particularly for shallower and cooler reservoirs, where the regeneration of energy due to the natural geothermal heat flux is a smaller percentage of the amount of energy that is extracted from the reservoir.

A Landscape Approach to Invasive Species Management.

PubMed

Lurgi, Miguel; Wells, Konstans; Kennedy, Malcolm; Campbell, Susan; Fordham, Damien A

2016-01-01

Biological invasions are not only a major threat to biodiversity, they also have major impacts on local economies and agricultural production systems. Once established, the connection of local populations into metapopulation networks facilitates dispersal at landscape scales, generating spatial dynamics that can impact the outcome of pest-management actions. Much planning goes into landscape-scale invasive species management. However, effective management requires knowledge on the interplay between metapopulation network topology and management actions. We address this knowledge gap using simulation models to explore the effectiveness of two common management strategies, applied across different extents and according to different rules for selecting target localities in metapopulations with different network topologies. These management actions are: (i) general population reduction, and (ii) reduction of an obligate resource. The reduction of an obligate resource was generally more efficient than population reduction for depleting populations at landscape scales. However, the way in which local populations are selected for management is important when the topology of the metapopulation is heterogeneous in terms of the distribution of connections among local populations. We tested these broad findings using real-world scenarios of European rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus) infesting agricultural landscapes in Western Australia. Although management strategies targeting central populations were more effective in simulated heterogeneous metapopulation structures, no difference was observed in real-world metapopulation structures that are highly homogeneous. In large metapopulations with high proximity and connectivity of neighbouring populations, different spatial management strategies yield similar outcomes. Directly considering spatial attributes in pest-management actions will be most important for metapopulation networks with heterogeneously distributed links. Our modelling framework provides a simple approach for identifying the best possible management strategy for invasive species based on metapopulation structure and control capacity. This information can be used by managers trying to devise efficient landscape-oriented management strategies for invasive species and can also generate insights for conservation purposes.

The role of simulation in teaching pediatric resuscitation: current perspectives

PubMed Central

Lin, Yiqun; Cheng, Adam

2015-01-01

The use of simulation for teaching the knowledge, skills, and behaviors necessary for effective pediatric resuscitation has seen widespread growth and adoption across pediatric institutions. In this paper, we describe the application of simulation in pediatric resuscitation training and review the evidence for the use of simulation in neonatal resuscitation, pediatric advanced life support, procedural skills training, and crisis resource management training. We also highlight studies supporting several key instructional design elements that enhance learning, including the use of high-fidelity simulation, distributed practice, deliberate practice, feedback, and debriefing. Simulation-based training is an effective modality for teaching pediatric resuscitation concepts. Current literature has revealed some research gaps in simulation-based education, which could indicate the direction for the future of pediatric resuscitation research. PMID:25878517

The role of hydrology in water resources management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shamir, U.

2011-12-01

Modern water resources management developed as a branch of science based engineering since the landmark publication of Mass et al. (1962&1967) which emerged from the Harvard Water Program. Clearly, water was managed much earlier, in fact since the early days of civilization, as evidenced by the publication of Vitruvius on architecture in the 1st Century BC, but the 1950s marked the advent of modeling enabled by computers, which transformed the field we call Water Resources Management (WRM). Since then, thousands of papers have been published and thousands of decisions and projects have been aided by WRM methodologies and model results. This presentation is not an historical review of water resources management, although it appears in a session titled The Evolution of WRM Paradigms. Instead, it is an attempt to discuss the role of hydrology as a feeder of information for the management domain. The issues faced by hydrologists who work to serve and support WRM will be discussed and elucidated by case studies. For hydrologists, some of the important points in this regard are: - Planning, design and operation are three interconnected "layers" of WRM. Planning is where the sources and consumers are identified, the overall "architecture" of a proposed system is laid out, including its topology and connectivity. Design is where sizes of facilities are fixed. Operational policy determines the operation of the system under a selected forecasted set of typical and/or critical conditions, while real-time operation means setting the operational variables for a defined time period ahead (hour, day, week, month, year). The three "layers" are inter-connected and inter-dependent, but still can be addressed differently. - Hydrological data of different types are required, according to the management issue being addressed. They range from short term now-casting/forecasting for real-time operation and response, e.g., for flood protection, to long-term time probabilistic series and ensembles for planning, which consider changing natural and anthropogenic drivers (land use, climate change). Since hydrology is a continuous process that is not divided internally according to the needs of management, the hydrological analysis must be geared to produce the suitable information for the different management issues. - Aggregation and disaggregation in space and time: selection of the level of detail in time and space should begin from the needs of the management issue being addressed, and dictate the monitoring, collection and processing. - Water quality: should receive more attention, as it is playing an ever increasing role in management, including its importance in ecological services. - Optimization, simulation and combining the two: optimization for WRM is used extensively. Some optimization models are able to address uncertainty internally, and further development continues. Simulation is easier to employ, but it merely produces "if-then" analysis. Combination of optimization and simulation is a common way to combine the advantages of the two. - Uncertainty, forecasting, ensembles: the uncertainties inherent in hydrological analysis and forecasting lead to the requirement for generating forecasts with a probabilistic characterization. This can be in the form of PDFs, time series, ensembles.

The Potential Impact of Labor Choices on the Efficacy of Marine Conservation Strategies

PubMed Central

Hughes, Zachary D.; Fenichel, Eli P.; Gerber, Leah R.

2011-01-01

Conservation of marine resources is critical to the wellbeing of human communities. Coastal artisanal fishing communities are particularly reliant on marine resources for food and for their livelihoods. Management actions aimed at marine conservation may lead to unanticipated changes in human behavior that influence the ability of conservation programs to achieve their goals. We examine how marine conservation strategies may impact labor decisions that influence both the ecosystem and human livelihoods using simulation modeling. We consider two conservation strategies in the model: direct action through fisheries regulation enforcement, and indirect action through land conservation. Our results indicate that both strategies can increase the abundance of fish, and thus contribute to the maintenance of marine resources. However, our results also show that marine fisheries enforcement may negatively impact the livelihoods of human communities. Land conservation, on the other hand, potentially enhances the livelihood of the human populations. Thus, depending on management objectives, indirect or a combination of direct and indirect conservation strategies may be effective at achieving conservation and sustainability goals. These results highlight the importance of accounting for changes in human behavior resulting from management actions in conservation and management. PMID:21887306

Simulation of groundwater and surface-water resources of the Santa Rosa Plain watershed, Sonoma County, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Woolfenden, Linda R.; Nishikawa, Tracy

2014-01-01

Water managers in the Santa Rosa Plain face the challenge of meeting increasing water demand with a combination of Russian River water, which has uncertainties in its future availability; local groundwater resources; and ongoing and expanding recycled water and water from other conservation programs. To address this challenge, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Sonoma County Water Agency, the cities of Cotati, Rohnert Park, Santa Rosa, and Sebastopol, the town of Windsor, the California American Water Company, and the County of Sonoma, undertook development of a fully coupled groundwater and surface-water model to better understand and to help manage the hydrologic resources in the Santa Rosa Plain watershed. The purpose of this report is to (1) describe the construction and calibration of the fully coupled groundwater and surface-water flow model for the Santa Rosa Plain watershed, referred to as the Santa Rosa Plain hydrologic model; (2) present results from simulation of the Santa Rosa Plain hydrologic model, including water budgets, recharge distributions, streamflow, and the effect of pumping on water-budget components; and (3) present the results from using the model to evaluate the potential hydrologic effects of climate change and variability without pumpage for water years 2011-99 and with projected pumpage for water years 2011-40.

Modelling the role of forests on water provision services: a hydro-economic valuation approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beguería, S.; Campos, P.

2015-12-01

Hydro-economic models that allow integrating the ecological, hydrological, infrastructure, economic and social aspects into a coherent, scientifically- informed framework constitute preferred tools for supporting decision making in the context of integrated water resources management. We present a case study of water regulation and provision services of forests in the Andalusia region of Spain. Our model computes the physical water flows and conducts an economic environmental income and asset valuation of forest surface and underground water yield. Based on available hydrologic and economic data, we develop a comprehensive water account for all the forest lands at the regional scale. This forest water environmental valuation is integrated within a much larger project aiming at providing a robust and easily replicable accounting tool to evaluate yearly the total income and capital of forests, encompassing all measurable sources of private and public incomes (timber and cork production, auto-consumption, recreational activities, biodiversity conservation, carbon sequestration, water production, etc.). We also force our simulation with future socio-economic scenarios to quantify the physical and economic efects of expected trends or simulated public and private policies on future water resources. Only a comprehensive integrated tool may serve as a basis for the development of integrated policies, such as those internationally agreed and recommended for the management of water resources.

Simulation of streamflow and the effects of brush management on water yields in the upper Guadalupe River watershed, south-central Texas, 1995-2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bumgarner, Johnathan R.; Thompson, Florence E.

2012-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Texas State Soil and Water Conservation Board and the Upper Guadalupe River Authority, developed and calibrated a Soil and Water Assessment Tool watershed model of the upper Guadalupe River watershed in south-central Texas to simulate streamflow and the effects of brush management on water yields in the watershed and to Canyon Lake for 1995-2010. Model simulations were done to quantify the possible change in water yield of individual subbasins in the upper Guadalupe River watershed as a result of the replacement of ashe juniper (Juniperus ashei) with grasslands. The simulation results will serve as a tool for resource managers to guide their brush-management efforts. Model hydrology was calibrated with streamflow data collected at the U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging station 08167500 Guadalupe River near Spring Branch, Tex., for 1995-2010. Simulated monthly streamflow showed very good agreement with measured monthly streamflow: a percent bias of -5, a coefficient of determination of 0.91, and a Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of model efficiency of 0.85. Modified land-cover input datasets were generated for the model in order to simulate the replacement of ashe juniper with grasslands in 23 brush-management subbasins in the watershed. Each of the 23 simulations showed an increase in simulated water yields in the targeted subbasins and to Canyon Lake. The simulated increases in average annual water yields in the subbasins ranged from 6,370 to 119,000 gallons per acre of ashe juniper replaced with grasslands with an average of 38,900 gallons. The simulated increases in average annual water yields to Canyon Lake from upstream subbasins ranged from 6,640 to 72,700 gallons per acre of ashe juniper replaced with grasslands with an average of 34,700 gallons.

Effects of spatially distributed sectoral water management on the redistribution of water resources in an integrated water model: SECTORAL WATER MANAGEMENT IN IA-ESM

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Voisin, Nathalie; Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Leung, L. Ruby

To advance understanding of the interactions between human activities and the water cycle, an integrated terrestrial water cycle component has been developed for Earth system models. This includes a land surface model fully coupled to a river routing model and a generic water management model to simulate natural and regulated flows. A global integrated assessment model and its regionalized version for the U.S. are used to simulate water demand consistent with the energy technology and socio-economics scenarios. Human influence on the hydrologic cycle includes regulation and storage from reservoirs, consumptive use and withdrawal from multiple sectors ( irrigation and non-irrigation)more » and overall redistribution of water resources in space and time. As groundwater provides an important source of water supply for irrigation and other uses, the integrated modeling framework has been extended with a simplified representation of groundwater as an additional supply source, and return flow generated from differences between withdrawals and consumptive uses from both groundwater and surface water systems. The groundwater supply and return flow modules are evaluated by analyzing the simulated regulated flow, reservoir storage and supply deficit for irrigation and non-irrigation sectors over major hydrologic regions of the conterminous U.S. The modeling framework is then used to provide insights on the reliability of water resources by isolating the reliability due to return flow and/or groundwater sources of water. Our results show that high sectoral ratio of withdrawals over consumptive demand adds significant stress on the water resources management that can be alleviated by reservoir storage capacity. The return flow representation therefore exhibits a clear east-west contrast in its hydrologic signature, as well as in its ability to help meet water demand. Groundwater use has a limited hydrologic signature but the most pronounced signature is in terms of decreasing water supply deficit. The combined return flow and groundwater use signature conserves the east-west constrast with overall uncertainties due to the groundwater-return flow representation, varying ratios combined with different hydroclimate conditions, storage infrastructures, sectoral water uses and dependence on groundwater. The redistribution of surface and groundwater by human activities, and the uncertainties in their representation have important implications to the water and energy balances in the Earth system and land-atmosphere interactions.« less

Hydrological Modeling of the Jiaoyi Watershed (China) Using HSPF Model

PubMed Central

Yan, Chang-An; Zhang, Wanchang; Zhang, Zhijie

2014-01-01

A watershed hydrological model, hydrological simulation program-Fortran (HSPF), was applied to simulate the spatial and temporal variation of hydrological processes in the Jiaoyi watershed of Huaihe River Basin, the heaviest shortage of water resources and polluted area in China. The model was calibrated using the years 2001–2004 and validated with data from 2005 to 2006. Calibration and validation results showed that the model generally simulated mean monthly and daily runoff precisely due to the close matching hydrographs between simulated and observed runoff, as well as the excellent evaluation indicators such as Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), coefficient of correlation (R 2), and the relative error (RE). The similar simulation results between calibration and validation period showed that all the calibrated parameters had a certain representation in Jiaoyi watershed. Additionally, the simulation in rainy months was more accurate than the drought months. Another result in this paper was that HSPF was also capable of estimating the water balance components reasonably and realistically in space through the whole watershed. The calibrated model can be used to explore the effects of climate change scenarios and various watershed management practices on the water resources and water environment in the basin. PMID:25013863

Assessing the effects of urbanization and climate change on groundwater management in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hua, S.; Zheng, C.

2017-12-01

Groundwater is expected to be more vulnerable in the future due to climate change coupled with rapid urbanization. Thus, protecting future groundwater resources under the impact of urbanization and climate change is necessary towards more sustainable groundwater resource development. This study is intended to shed lights on how water managers may plan for the adverse effects of urbanization and climate change on groundwater quality. A new approach is presented in which the groundwater vulnerability under future climate change scenarios is employed as a constraint to urban expansion. An original form of the Land Transformation Model (LTM) and a revised LTM simulation are applied to model the urbanization. The results indicated that there would be a notable and uneven urban growth between 2010 and 2050. Future groundwater vulnerability is expected to shift significantly under future climate change scenarios. The results of the revised LTM project more urban expansion in the central regions of China, while those of the original LTM project urban expansion in throughout China, although the two projections have the same areas of expansion. The urban expansion simulated by the original LTM follows the historical trend under the drivers of socioeconomic, political and geographic factors. However, the revised LTM drives the urban expansion to the regions with relatively lower groundwater vulnerability, in contrast to the historical trend. This study demonstrates that the integration of LTM and future groundwater vulnerability in the urban planning can better protect the groundwater resource and promote more sustainable socioeconomic development. The methodology developed in this study provides water managers and city planners a useful groundwater management tool for mitigating the risks associated with rapid urbanization and climate change.

The importance of parameterization when simulating the hydrologic response of vegetative land-cover change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

White, Jeremy; Stengel, Victoria; Rendon, Samuel; Banta, John

2017-08-01

Computer models of hydrologic systems are frequently used to investigate the hydrologic response of land-cover change. If the modeling results are used to inform resource-management decisions, then providing robust estimates of uncertainty in the simulated response is an important consideration. Here we examine the importance of parameterization, a necessarily subjective process, on uncertainty estimates of the simulated hydrologic response of land-cover change. Specifically, we applied the soil water assessment tool (SWAT) model to a 1.4 km2 watershed in southern Texas to investigate the simulated hydrologic response of brush management (the mechanical removal of woody plants), a discrete land-cover change. The watershed was instrumented before and after brush-management activities were undertaken, and estimates of precipitation, streamflow, and evapotranspiration (ET) are available; these data were used to condition and verify the model. The role of parameterization in brush-management simulation was evaluated by constructing two models, one with 12 adjustable parameters (reduced parameterization) and one with 1305 adjustable parameters (full parameterization). Both models were subjected to global sensitivity analysis as well as Monte Carlo and generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) conditioning to identify important model inputs and to estimate uncertainty in several quantities of interest related to brush management. Many realizations from both parameterizations were identified as behavioral in that they reproduce daily mean streamflow acceptably well according to Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient, percent bias, and coefficient of determination. However, the total volumetric ET difference resulting from simulated brush management remains highly uncertain after conditioning to daily mean streamflow, indicating that streamflow data alone are not sufficient to inform the model inputs that influence the simulated outcomes of brush management the most. Additionally, the reduced-parameterization model grossly underestimates uncertainty in the total volumetric ET difference compared to the full-parameterization model; total volumetric ET difference is a primary metric for evaluating the outcomes of brush management. The failure of the reduced-parameterization model to provide robust uncertainty estimates demonstrates the importance of parameterization when attempting to quantify uncertainty in land-cover change simulations.

The importance of parameterization when simulating the hydrologic response of vegetative land-cover change

USGS Publications Warehouse

White, Jeremy; Stengel, Victoria G.; Rendon, Samuel H.; Banta, John

2017-01-01

Computer models of hydrologic systems are frequently used to investigate the hydrologic response of land-cover change. If the modeling results are used to inform resource-management decisions, then providing robust estimates of uncertainty in the simulated response is an important consideration. Here we examine the importance of parameterization, a necessarily subjective process, on uncertainty estimates of the simulated hydrologic response of land-cover change. Specifically, we applied the soil water assessment tool (SWAT) model to a 1.4 km2 watershed in southern Texas to investigate the simulated hydrologic response of brush management (the mechanical removal of woody plants), a discrete land-cover change. The watershed was instrumented before and after brush-management activities were undertaken, and estimates of precipitation, streamflow, and evapotranspiration (ET) are available; these data were used to condition and verify the model. The role of parameterization in brush-management simulation was evaluated by constructing two models, one with 12 adjustable parameters (reduced parameterization) and one with 1305 adjustable parameters (full parameterization). Both models were subjected to global sensitivity analysis as well as Monte Carlo and generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) conditioning to identify important model inputs and to estimate uncertainty in several quantities of interest related to brush management. Many realizations from both parameterizations were identified as behavioral in that they reproduce daily mean streamflow acceptably well according to Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient, percent bias, and coefficient of determination. However, the total volumetric ET difference resulting from simulated brush management remains highly uncertain after conditioning to daily mean streamflow, indicating that streamflow data alone are not sufficient to inform the model inputs that influence the simulated outcomes of brush management the most. Additionally, the reduced-parameterization model grossly underestimates uncertainty in the total volumetric ET difference compared to the full-parameterization model; total volumetric ET difference is a primary metric for evaluating the outcomes of brush management. The failure of the reduced-parameterization model to provide robust uncertainty estimates demonstrates the importance of parameterization when attempting to quantify uncertainty in land-cover change simulations.

Collaborative enterprise and virtual prototyping (CEVP): a product-centric approach to distributed simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saunders, Vance M.

1999-06-01

The downsizing of the Department of Defense (DoD) and the associated reduction in budgets has re-emphasized the need for commonality, reuse, and standards with respect to the way DoD does business. DoD has implemented significant changes in how it buys weapon systems. The new emphasis is on concurrent engineering with Integrated Product and Process Development and collaboration with Integrated Product Teams. The new DoD vision includes Simulation Based Acquisition (SBA), a process supported by robust, collaborative use of simulation technology that is integrated across acquisition phases and programs. This paper discusses the Air Force Research Laboratory's efforts to use Modeling and Simulation (M&S) resources within a Collaborative Enterprise Environment to support SBA and other Collaborative Enterprise and Virtual Prototyping (CEVP) applications. The paper will discuss four technology areas: (1) a Processing Ontology that defines a hierarchically nested set of collaboration contexts needed to organize and support multi-disciplinary collaboration using M&S, (2) a partial taxonomy of intelligent agents needed to manage different M&S resource contributions to advancing the state of product development, (3) an agent- based process for interfacing disparate M&S resources into a CEVP framework, and (4) a Model-View-Control based approach to defining `a new way of doing business' for users of CEVP frameworks/systems.

Comparison of groundwater flow in Southern California coastal aquifers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hanson, Randall T.; Izbicki, John A.; Reichard, Eric G.; Edwards, Brian D.; Land, Michael; Martin, Peter

2009-01-01

Maintaining the sustainability of Southern California coastal aquifers requires joint management of surface water and groundwater (conjunctive use). This requires new data collection and analyses (including research drilling, modern geohydrologic investigations, and development of detailed computer groundwater models that simulate the supply and demand components separately), implementation of new facilities (including spreading and injection facilities for artificial recharge), and establishment of new institutions and policies that help to sustain the water resources and better manage regional development.

A method of distributed avionics data processing based on SVM classifier

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Hangyu; Wang, Jinyan; Kang, Minyang; Xu, Guojing

2018-03-01

Under the environment of system combat, in order to solve the problem on management and analysis of the massive heterogeneous data on multi-platform avionics system, this paper proposes a management solution which called avionics "resource cloud" based on big data technology, and designs an aided decision classifier based on SVM algorithm. We design an experiment with STK simulation, the result shows that this method has a high accuracy and a broad application prospect.

Integration of environmental simulation models with satellite remote sensing and geographic information systems technologies: case studies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Steyaert, Louis T.; Loveland, Thomas R.; Brown, Jesslyn F.; Reed, Bradley C.

1993-01-01

Environmental modelers are testing and evaluating a prototype land cover characteristics database for the conterminous United States developed by the EROS Data Center of the U.S. Geological Survey and the University of Nebraska Center for Advanced Land Management Information Technologies. This database was developed from multi temporal, 1-kilometer advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) data for 1990 and various ancillary data sets such as elevation, ecological regions, and selected climatic normals. Several case studies using this database were analyzed to illustrate the integration of satellite remote sensing and geographic information systems technologies with land-atmosphere interactions models at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. The case studies are representative of contemporary environmental simulation modeling at local to regional levels in global change research, land and water resource management, and environmental simulation modeling at local to regional levels in global change research, land and water resource management and environmental risk assessment. The case studies feature land surface parameterizations for atmospheric mesoscale and global climate models; biogenic-hydrocarbons emissions models; distributed parameter watershed and other hydrological models; and various ecological models such as ecosystem, dynamics, biogeochemical cycles, ecotone variability, and equilibrium vegetation models. The case studies demonstrate the important of multi temporal AVHRR data to develop to develop and maintain a flexible, near-realtime land cover characteristics database. Moreover, such a flexible database is needed to derive various vegetation classification schemes, to aggregate data for nested models, to develop remote sensing algorithms, and to provide data on dynamic landscape characteristics. The case studies illustrate how such a database supports research on spatial heterogeneity, land use, sensitivity analysis, and scaling issues involving regional extrapolations and parameterizations of dynamic land processes within simulation models.

Defining Drought Characteristics for Natural Resource Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ojima, D. S.; Senay, G. B.; McNeeley, S.; Morisette, J. T.

2016-12-01

In the north central region of the US, on-going drought studies are investigating factors determining how drought impacts various ecosystem services and challenge natural resource management decisions. The effort reported here stems from research sponsored by the USGS North Central Climate Science Center, to deal with ecosystem response to drought with the goal to see if there are indicators of drought emerging from the ecosystem interactions with various weather patterns, soil moisture dynamics, and the structural aspects of the ecosystem in question. The North Central domain covers a region from the headwaters of the Missouri River Basin to the northern Great Plains. Using spatial and temporal analysis of remote sensing products and mechanistic daily time-step ecosystem model simulations across the northern Great Plains and northern Rockies, analysis of recent drought conditions over the region will be provided. Drought characteristics will be analyzed related to resource management targets, such as water supply, landscape productivity, or habitat needs for key species. Analysis of ecosystem and landscape patterns of drought relative to net primary productivity, surface temperatures, soil moisture content, evaporation, transpiration, and water use efficiency from 2000 through 2014 will be analyzed for different drought and non-drought events. Comparisons between satellite-derived ET and NPP of different Great Plains ecosystems related to simulated ET and NPP will be presented. These comparisons provide indications of the role that soil moisture dynamics, groundwater recharge and rooting depth of different ecosystems have on determining the sensitivity to water stress due to seasonal warming and reduced precipitation across the region. In addition, indications that average annual rainfall levels over certain ecosystems may result in reduced production due to higher rates of water demand under the observed warmer temperatures and the prolonged warming in the spring and fall affecting soil moisture conditions. These results are being used to inform managers in our region about recent climate trends regarding drought impacts and provide a basis for further co-design efforts of research to action strategies with resource managers and stakeholders in the region.

Distribution Feeder Modeling for Time-Series Simulation of Voltage Management Strategies: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Giraldez Miner, Julieta I; Gotseff, Peter; Nagarajan, Adarsh

This paper presents techniques to create baseline distribution models using a utility feeder from Hawai'ian Electric Company. It describes the software-to-software conversion, steady-state, and time-series validations of a utility feeder model. It also presents a methodology to add secondary low-voltage circuit models to accurately capture the voltage at the customer meter level. This enables preparing models to perform studies that simulate how customer-sited resources integrate into legacy utility distribution system operations.

Developing a Coalition Battle Management Language to Facilitate Interoperability Between Operation CIS, and Simulations in Support of Training and Mission Rehearsal

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-06-01

virtualisation of distributed computing and data resources such as processing, network bandwidth, and storage capacity, to create a single system...and Simulation (M&S) will be integrated into this heterogeneous SOA. M&S functionality will be available in the form of operational M&S services. One...documents defining net centric warfare, the use of M&S functionality is a common theme. Alberts and Hayes give a good overview on net centric operations

The simulation of 3D structure of groundwater system based on Java/Java3D

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Xiaodong; Cui, Weihong; Wang, Peifa; Huang, Yongqi

2007-06-01

With the singular development of Internet technique and 3DGIS as well as VR and the imminence demand of 3D visualization from Groundwater information management field, how to display, roam, anatomize and analyze of 3D structure of Groundwater system on Internet have become a research hotspot in hydrogeology field. We simulated the 3D Groundwater resource structure of Taiyuan basin and implemented displaying, roaming, anatomizing and analyzing functions on Internet by Java 3D.

Ground-water models for water resource planning

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moore, J.E.

1983-01-01

In the past decade hydrogeologists have emphasized the development of computer-based mathematical models to aid in the understanding of flow, the transport of solutes, transport of heat, and deformation in the ground-water system. These models have been used to provide information and predictions for water managers. Too frequently, ground-water was neglected in water resource planning because managers believed that it could not be adequately evaluated in terms of availability, quality, and effect of development on surface-water supplies. Now, however, with newly developed digital ground-water models, effects of development can be predicted. Such models have been used to predict hydrologic and quality changes under different stresses. These models have grown in complexity over the last ten years from simple one-layer models to three-dimensional simulations of ground-water flow, which may include solute transport, heat transport, effects of land subsidence, and encroachment of saltwater. Case histories illustrate how predictive ground-water models have provided the information needed for the sound planning and management of water resources in the USA. ?? 1983 D. Reidel Publishing Company.

Dynamic virtual machine allocation policy in cloud computing complying with service level agreement using CloudSim

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aneri, Parikh; Sumathy, S.

2017-11-01

Cloud computing provides services over the internet and provides application resources and data to the users based on their demand. Base of the Cloud Computing is consumer provider model. Cloud provider provides resources which consumer can access using cloud computing model in order to build their application based on their demand. Cloud data center is a bulk of resources on shared pool architecture for cloud user to access. Virtualization is the heart of the Cloud computing model, it provides virtual machine as per application specific configuration and those applications are free to choose their own configuration. On one hand, there is huge number of resources and on other hand it has to serve huge number of requests effectively. Therefore, resource allocation policy and scheduling policy play very important role in allocation and managing resources in this cloud computing model. This paper proposes the load balancing policy using Hungarian algorithm. Hungarian Algorithm provides dynamic load balancing policy with a monitor component. Monitor component helps to increase cloud resource utilization by managing the Hungarian algorithm by monitoring its state and altering its state based on artificial intelligent. CloudSim used in this proposal is an extensible toolkit and it simulates cloud computing environment.

Recharge Data for the Islands of Kauai, Lanai and Molokai, Hawaii

DOE Data Explorer

Nicole Lautze

2015-01-01

Recharge data for the islands of Kauai, Lanai and Molokai in shapefile format. These data are from the following sources: Whittier, R.B and A.I. El-Kadi. 2014. Human Health and Environmental Risk Ranking of On-Site Sewage Disposal systems for the Hawaiian Islands of Kauai, Molokai, Maui, and Hawaii – Final, Prepared for Hawaii Dept. of Health, Safe Drinking Water Branch by the University of Hawaii, Dept. of Geology and Geophysics. (for Kauai, Lanai, Molokai). Shade, P.J., 1995, Water Budget for the Island of Kauai, Hawaii, USGS Water-Resources Investigations Report 95-4128, 25 p. (for Kauai). Izuka, S.K. and D.S. Oki, 2002 Numerical simulation of ground-water withdrawals in the Southern Lihue Basin, Kauai, Hawaii, U.S. Geologic Survey Water-Resources Investigations Report 01-4200, 52 pgs. (for Kauai). Hardy, W.R., 1996, A Numerical Groundwater Model for the Island of Lanai, Hawaii - CWRM Report No., CWRM-1, Commission on Water Resources Management, Department of Natural Resources, State of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI. (for Lanai). Oki, D.S., 1997, Geohydrology and numerical Simulation of the Ground-Water Flow System of Molokai, Hawaii, USGS Water-Resources Investigations Report 97-4176, 62 p. (for Molokai).

Obstetric simulation as a risk control strategy: course design and evaluation.

PubMed

Gardner, Roxane; Walzer, Toni B; Simon, Robert; Raemer, Daniel B

2008-01-01

Patient safety initiatives aimed at reducing medical errors and adverse events are being implemented in Obstetrics. The Controlled Risk Insurance Company (CRICO), Risk Management Foundation (RMF) of the Harvard Medical Institutions pursued simulation as an anesthesia risk control strategy. Encouraged by their success, CRICO/RMF promoted simulation-based team training as a risk control strategy for obstetrical providers. We describe the development, implementation, and evaluation of an obstetric simulation-based team training course grounded in crisis resource management (CRM) principles. We pursued systematic design of course development, implementation, and evaluation in 3 phases, including a 1-year or more posttraining follow-up with self-assessment questionnaires. The course was highly rated overall by participants immediately after the course and 1-year or more after the course. Most survey responders reported having experienced a critical clinical event since the course and that various aspects of their teamwork had significantly or somewhat improved as a result of the course. Most (86%) reported CRM principles as useful for obstetric faculty and most (59%) recommended repeating the simulation course every 2 years. A simulation-based team-training course for obstetric clinicians was developed and is a central component of CRICO/RMF's obstetric risk management incentive program that provides a 10% reduction in annual obstetrical malpractice premiums. The course was highly regarded immediately and 1 year or more after completing the course. Most survey responders reported improved teamwork and communication in managing a critical obstetric event in the interval since taking the course. Simulation-based CRM training can serve as a strategy for mitigating adverse perinatal events.

Analyzing climate change impacts on water resources under uncertainty using an integrated simulation-optimization approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhuang, X. W.; Li, Y. P.; Nie, S.; Fan, Y. R.; Huang, G. H.

2018-01-01

An integrated simulation-optimization (ISO) approach is developed for assessing climate change impacts on water resources. In the ISO, uncertainties presented as both interval numbers and probability distributions can be reflected. Moreover, ISO permits in-depth analyses of various policy scenarios that are associated with different levels of economic consequences when the promised water-allocation targets are violated. A snowmelt-precipitation-driven watershed (Kaidu watershed) in northwest China is selected as the study case for demonstrating the applicability of the proposed method. Results of meteorological projections disclose that the incremental trend of temperature (e.g., minimum and maximum values) and precipitation exist. Results also reveal that (i) the system uncertainties would significantly affect water resources allocation pattern (including target and shortage); (ii) water shortage would be enhanced from 2016 to 2070; and (iii) the more the inflow amount decreases, the higher estimated water shortage rates are. The ISO method is useful for evaluating climate change impacts within a watershed system with complicated uncertainties and helping identify appropriate water resources management strategies hedging against drought.

Solving Large-scale Spatial Optimization Problems in Water Resources Management through Spatial Evolutionary Algorithms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, J.; Cai, X.

2007-12-01

A water resources system can be defined as a large-scale spatial system, within which distributed ecological system interacts with the stream network and ground water system. Water resources management, the causative factors and hence the solutions to be developed have a significant spatial dimension. This motivates a modeling analysis of water resources management within a spatial analytical framework, where data is usually geo- referenced and in the form of a map. One of the important functions of Geographic information systems (GIS) is to identify spatial patterns of environmental variables. The role of spatial patterns in water resources management has been well established in the literature particularly regarding how to design better spatial patterns for satisfying the designated objectives of water resources management. Evolutionary algorithms (EA) have been demonstrated to be successful in solving complex optimization models for water resources management due to its flexibility to incorporate complex simulation models in the optimal search procedure. The idea of combining GIS and EA motivates the development and application of spatial evolutionary algorithms (SEA). SEA assimilates spatial information into EA, and even changes the representation and operators of EA. In an EA used for water resources management, the mathematical optimization model should be modified to account the spatial patterns; however, spatial patterns are usually implicit, and it is difficult to impose appropriate patterns to spatial data. Also it is difficult to express complex spatial patterns by explicit constraints included in the EA. The GIS can help identify the spatial linkages and correlations based on the spatial knowledge of the problem. These linkages are incorporated in the fitness function for the preference of the compatible vegetation distribution. Unlike a regular GA for spatial models, the SEA employs a special hierarchical hyper-population and spatial genetic operators to represent spatial variables in a more efficient way. The hyper-population consists of a set of populations, which correspond to the spatial distributions of the individual agents (organisms). Furthermore spatial crossover and mutation operators are designed in accordance with the tree representation and then applied to both organisms and populations. This study applies the SEA to a specific problem of water resources management- maximizing the riparian vegetation coverage in accordance with the distributed groundwater system in an arid region. The vegetation coverage is impacted greatly by the nonlinear feedbacks and interactions between vegetation and groundwater and the spatial variability of groundwater. The SEA is applied to search for an optimal vegetation configuration compatible to the groundwater flow. The results from this example demonstrate the effectiveness of the SEA. Extension of the algorithm for other water resources management problems is discussed.

Aquatics Systems Branch: transdisciplinary research to address water-related environmental problems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dong, Quan; Walters, Katie D.

2015-01-01

The Aquatic Systems Branch at the Fort Collins Science Center is a group of scientists dedicated to advancing interdisciplinary science and providing science support to solve water-related environmental issues. Natural resource managers have an increasing need for scientific information and stakeholders face enormous challenges of increasing and competing demands for water. Our scientists are leaders in ecological flows, riparian ecology, hydroscape ecology, ecosystem management, and contaminant biology. The Aquatic Systems Branch employs and develops state-of-the-science approaches in field investigations, laboratory experiments, remote sensing, simulation and predictive modeling, and decision support tools. We use the aquatic experimental laboratory, the greenhouse, the botanical garden and other advanced facilities to conduct unique research. Our scientists pursue research on the ground, in the rivers, and in the skies, generating and testing hypotheses and collecting quantitative information to support planning and design in natural resource management and aquatic restoration.

Game theoretic sensor management for target tracking

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, Dan; Chen, Genshe; Blasch, Erik; Pham, Khanh; Douville, Philip; Yang, Chun; Kadar, Ivan

2010-04-01

This paper develops and evaluates a game-theoretic approach to distributed sensor-network management for target tracking via sensor-based negotiation. We present a distributed sensor-based negotiation game model for sensor management for multi-sensor multi-target tacking situations. In our negotiation framework, each negotiation agent represents a sensor and each sensor maximizes their utility using a game approach. The greediness of each sensor is limited by the fact that the sensor-to-target assignment efficiency will decrease if too many sensor resources are assigned to a same target. It is similar to the market concept in real world, such as agreements between buyers and sellers in an auction market. Sensors are willing to switch targets so that they can obtain their highest utility and the most efficient way of applying their resources. Our sub-game perfect equilibrium-based negotiation strategies dynamically and distributedly assign sensors to targets. Numerical simulations are performed to demonstrate our sensor-based negotiation approach for distributed sensor management.

Decision Support Systems To Manage Water Resources At Irrigation District Level In Southern Italy Using Remote Sensing Information. An Integrated Project (AQUATER)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rinaldi, M.; Castrignanò, A.; Mastrorilli, M.; Rana, G.; Ventrella, D.; Acutis, M.; D'Urso, G.; Mattia, F.

2006-08-01

An efficient management of water resources is crucial point for Italy and in particular for southern areas characterized by Mediterranean climate in order to improve the economical and environmental sustainability of the agricultural activity. A three-year Project (2005-2008) has been funded by the Italian Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry Policies; it involves four Italian research institutions: the Agricultural Research Council (ISA, Bari), the National Research Council (ISSIA, Bari) and two Universities (Federico II-Naples and Milan). It is focused on the remote sensing, the plant and the climate and, for interdisciplinary relationships, the project working group consists of agronomists, engineers and physicists. The aims of the Project are: a) to produce a Decision Support System (DSS) combining remote sensing information, spatial data and simulation models to manage water resources in irrigation districts; b) to simulate irrigation scenarios to evaluate the effects of water stress on crop yield using agro-ecological indicators; c) to identify the most sensitive areas to drought risk in Southern Italy. The tools used in this Project will be: 1. Remote sensing images, topographic maps, soil and land use maps; 2. Geographic Information Systems; 3. Geostatistic methodologies; 4. Ground truth measurements (land use, canopy and soil temperatures, soil and plant water status, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, Crop Water Stress Index, Leaf Area Index, actual evapotranspiration, crop coefficients, crop yield, agro-ecological indicators); 5. Crop simulation models. The Project is structured in four work packages with specific objectives, high degree of interaction and information exchange: 1) Remote Sensing and Image Analysis; 2) Cropping Systems; 3) Modelling and Softwares Development; 4) Stakeholders. The final product will be a DSS with the purpose of integrating remote sensing images, to estimate crop and soil variables related to drought, to assimilate these variables into a simulation model at district scale and, finally, to estimate evapotranspiration, plant water status and drought indicators. A project Web home page, a technical course about DSS for the employers of irrigation authorities and dissemination of results (meetings, publications, reports), are also planned.

FEES: design of a Fire Economics Evaluation System

Treesearch

Thomas J. Mills; Frederick W. Bratten

1982-01-01

The Fire Economics Evaluation System (FEES)--a simulation model--is being designed for long-term planning application by all public agencies with wildland fire management responsibilities. A fully operational version of FEES will be capable of estimating the economic efficiency, fire-induced changes in resource outputs, and risk characteristics of a range of fire...

"The Virtual Patient"--Development, Implementation and Evaluation of an Innovative Computer Simulation for Postgraduate Nursing Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kiegaldie, Debra; White, Geoff

2006-01-01

The Virtual Patient, an interactive multimedia learning resource using a critical care clinical scenario for postgraduate nursing students, was developed to enhance flexible access to learning experiences and improve learning outcomes in the management of critically ill patients. Using real-time physiological animations, authentic content design…

An Archeological Overview and Management Plan for the Harry Diamond Laboratories-Woodbridge Research Facility.

DTIC Science & Technology

1985-07-01

Radar (ISR) facility east of Lake Drive; h) a 40 ft. by 50 ft. command and control building at the Vertical Electromagnetic Pulse Simulator ( VEMPS ) west...Construction and fill operations could bury and extant archeological resources. The four command and control buildings (CW, ISR, VEMPS and REPS) will

Linking Temporal-Optimization and Spatial-Simulation Models for Forest Planning

Treesearch

Larry A. Leefers; Eric J. Gustafson; Phillip Freeman

2003-01-01

Increasingly, resource management agencies and researchers have turned their analysis and modeling efforts towards spatial and temporal information. This is driven by the need to address wildlife concerns, landscape issues, and social/economic questions. Historically, the USDA Forest Service has used optimization models (i.e., FORPLAN and Spectrum) for timber harvest...

Workshop on Cyclostationary Signals

DTIC Science & Technology

1993-06-30

Thompstone (1987) "Combining hydrologic forecasts," Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, Vol. 113, pp. 29-41, January 1987. Miamee, A. G...was simulated and added at a level of about 7-8 dB below that of the recorded signal. The carrer frequency of the BPSK signal was 44 kHz and its symbol

Discrete event simulation for healthcare organizations: a tool for decision making.

PubMed

Hamrock, Eric; Paige, Kerrie; Parks, Jennifer; Scheulen, James; Levin, Scott

2013-01-01

Healthcare organizations face challenges in efficiently accommodating increased patient demand with limited resources and capacity. The modern reimbursement environment prioritizes the maximization of operational efficiency and the reduction of unnecessary costs (i.e., waste) while maintaining or improving quality. As healthcare organizations adapt, significant pressures are placed on leaders to make difficult operational and budgetary decisions. In lieu of hard data, decision makers often base these decisions on subjective information. Discrete event simulation (DES), a computerized method of imitating the operation of a real-world system (e.g., healthcare delivery facility) over time, can provide decision makers with an evidence-based tool to develop and objectively vet operational solutions prior to implementation. DES in healthcare commonly focuses on (1) improving patient flow, (2) managing bed capacity, (3) scheduling staff, (4) managing patient admission and scheduling procedures, and (5) using ancillary resources (e.g., labs, pharmacies). This article describes applicable scenarios, outlines DES concepts, and describes the steps required for development. An original DES model developed to examine crowding and patient flow for staffing decision making at an urban academic emergency department serves as a practical example.

Guidelines for Line-Oriented Flight Training, Volume 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lauber, J. K.; Foushee, H. C.

1981-01-01

Line-Oriented Flight Training (LOFT) is a developing training technology which synthesizes high-fidelity aircraft simulation and high-fidelity line-operations simulation to provide realistic, dynamic pilot training in a simulated line environment. LOFT is an augmentation of existing pilot training which concentrates upon command, leadership, and resource management skills. This report, based on an NASA/Industry workshop held in January, 1981, is designed to serve as a handbook for LOFT users. In addition to providing background information, guidelines are presented for designing LOFT scenarios, conducting real-time LOFT operations, pilot debriefing, and instructor qualification and training. The final chapter addressed other uses of LOFT and line-operations (or full-mission) simulation.

Cost accounting, management control, and planning in health care.

PubMed

Siegrist, R B; Blish, C S

1988-02-01

Advantages and pharmacy applications of computerized hospital management-control and planning systems are described. Hospitals must define their product lines; patient cases, not tests or procedures, are the end product. Management involves operational control, management control, and strategic planning. Operational control deals with day-to-day management on the task level. Management control involves ensuring that managers use resources effectively and efficiently to accomplish the organization's objectives. Management control includes both control of unit costs of intermediate products, which are procedures and services used to treat patients and are managed by hospital department heads, and control of intermediate product use per case (managed by the clinician). Information from the operation and management levels feeds into the strategic plan; conversely, the management level controls the plan and the operational level carries it out. In the system developed at New England Medical Center, Boston, Massachusetts, the intermediate product-management system enables managers to identify intermediate products, develop standard costs, simulate changes in departmental costs, and perform variance analysis. The end-product management system creates a patient-level data-base, identifies end products (patient-care groupings), develops standard resource protocols, models alternative assumptions, performs variance analysis, and provides concurrent reporting. Examples are given of pharmacy managers' use of such systems to answer questions in the areas of product costing, product pricing, variance analysis, productivity monitoring, flexible budgeting, modeling and planning, and comparative analysis.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

A GIS based watershed information system for water resources management and planning in semi-arid areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tzabiras, John; Spiliotopoulos, Marios; Kokkinos, Kostantinos; Fafoutis, Chrysostomos; Sidiropoulos, Pantelis; Vasiliades, Lampros; Papaioannou, George; Loukas, Athanasios; Mylopoulos, Nikitas

2015-04-01

The overall objective of this work is the development of an Information System which could be used by stakeholders for the purposes of water management as well as for planning and strategic decision-making in semi-arid areas. An integrated modeling system has been developed and applied to evaluate the sustainability of water resources management strategies in Lake Karla watershed, Greece. The modeling system, developed in the framework of "HYDROMENTOR" research project, is based on a GIS modelling approach which uses remote sensing data and includes coupled models for the simulation of surface water and groundwater resources, the operation of hydrotechnical projects (reservoir operation and irrigation works) and the estimation of water demands at several spatial scales. Lake Karla basin was the region where the system was tested but the methodology may be the basis for future analysis elsewhere. Τwo (2) base and three (3) management scenarios were investigated. In total, eight (8) water management scenarios were evaluated: i) Base scenario without operation of the reservoir and the designed Lake Karla district irrigation network (actual situation) • Reduction of channel losses • Alteration of irrigation methods • Introduction of greenhouse cultivation ii) Base scenario including the operation of the reservoir and the Lake Karla district irrigation network • Reduction of channel losses • Alteration of irrigation methods • Introduction of greenhouse cultivation The results show that, under the existing water resources management, the water deficit of Lake Karla watershed is very large. However, the operation of the reservoir and the cooperative Lake Karla district irrigation network coupled with water demand management measures, like reduction of water distribution system losses and alteration of irrigation methods, could alleviate the problem and lead to sustainable and ecological use of water resources in the study area. Acknowledgements: This study has been supported by the research project "Hydromentor" funded by the Greek General Secretariat of Research and Technology in the framework of the E.U. co-funded National Action "Cooperation"

Application of Harmony Search algorithm to the solution of groundwater management models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tamer Ayvaz, M.

2009-06-01

This study proposes a groundwater resources management model in which the solution is performed through a combined simulation-optimization model. A modular three-dimensional finite difference groundwater flow model, MODFLOW is used as the simulation model. This model is then combined with a Harmony Search (HS) optimization algorithm which is based on the musical process of searching for a perfect state of harmony. The performance of the proposed HS based management model is tested on three separate groundwater management problems: (i) maximization of total pumping from an aquifer (steady-state); (ii) minimization of the total pumping cost to satisfy the given demand (steady-state); and (iii) minimization of the pumping cost to satisfy the given demand for multiple management periods (transient). The sensitivity of HS algorithm is evaluated by performing a sensitivity analysis which aims to determine the impact of related solution parameters on convergence behavior. The results show that HS yields nearly same or better solutions than the previous solution methods and may be used to solve management problems in groundwater modeling.

Modeling the potential persistence of various ecological systems under CMIP5 future climate and land use scenarios throughout California, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baker, B.; Ferschweiler, K.; Bachelet, D. M.; Sleeter, B. M.

2016-12-01

California's geographic location, topographic complexity and latitudinal climatic gradient give rise to great biological and ecological diversity. However, increased land use pressure, altered seasonal weather patterns, and changes in temperature and precipitation regimes are having pronounced effects on ecosystems and the multitude of services they provide for an increasing population. As a result, natural resource managers are faced with formidable challenges to maintain these critical services. The goals of this project were to better understand how projected 21st century climate and land-use change scenarios may alter ecosystem dynamics, the spatial distribution of various vegetation types and land-use patterns, and to provide a coarse scale "triage map" of where land managers may want to concentrate efforts to reduce ecological stress in order to mitigate the potential impacts of a changing climate. We used the MC2 dynamic global vegetation model and the LUCAS state-and-transition simulation model to simulate the potential effects of future climate and land-use change on ecological processes for the state of California. Historical climate data were obtained from the PRISM dataset and nine CMIP5 climate models were run for the RCP 8.5 scenario. Climate projections were combined with a business-as-usual land-use scenario based on local-scale land use histories. For ease of discussion, results from five simulation runs (historic, hot-dry, hot-wet, warm-dry, and warm-wet) are presented. Results showed large changes in the extent of urban and agricultural lands. In addition, several simulated potential vegetation types persisted in situ under all four future scenarios, although alterations in total area, total ecosystem carbon, and forest vigor (NPP/LAI) were noted. As might be expected, the majority of the forested types that persisted occurred on public lands. However, more than 78% of the simulated subtropical mixed forest and 26% of temperate evergreen needleleaf forest types persisted on private lands under all four future scenarios. Result suggest that building collaborations across management borders could be valuable tool to guide natural resource management actions into the future.

EVALUATING HYDROLOGICAL RESPONSE TO ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Studies of future management and policy options based on different assumptions provide a mechanism to examine possible outcomes and especially their likely benefits or consequences. Planning and assessment in land and water resource management are evolving toward complex, spatially explicit regional assessments. These problems have to be addressed with distributed models that can compute runoff and erosion at different spatial and temporal scales. The extensive data requirements and the difficult task of building input parameter files, however, have long been an obstacle to the timely and cost-effective use of such complex models by resource managers. The U.S. EPA Landscape Ecology Branch in collaboration with the USDA-ARS Southwest Watershed Research Center has developed a geographic information system (GIS) tool to facilitate this process. A GIS provides the framework within which spatially distributed data are collected and used to prepare model input files, and model results are evaluated. The Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment (AGWA) tool uses widely available standardized spatial datasets that can be obtained via the internet at no cost to the user. The data are used to develop input parameter files for KINEROS2 and SWAT, two watershed runoff and erosion simulation models that operate at different spatial and temporal scales. AGWA automates the process of transforming digital data into simulation model results and provides a visualization tool

So you want to conduct a randomised trial? Learnings from a 'failed' feasibility study of a Crisis Resource Management prompt during simulated paediatric resuscitation.

PubMed

Teis, Rachel; Allen, Jyai; Lee, Nigel; Kildea, Sue

2017-02-01

No study has tested a Crisis Resource Management prompt on resuscitation performance. We conducted a feasibility, unblinded, parallel-group, randomised controlled trial at one Australian paediatric hospital (June-September 2014). Eligible participants were any doctor, nurse, or nurse manager who would normally be involved in a Medical Emergency Team simulation. The unit of block randomisation was one of six scenarios (3 control:3 intervention) with or without a verbal prompt. The primary outcomes tested the feasibility and utility of the intervention and data collection tools. The secondary outcomes measured resuscitation quality and team performance. Data were analysed from six resuscitation scenarios (n=49 participants); three control groups (n=25) and three intervention groups (n=24). The ability to measure all data items on the data collection tools was hindered by problems with the recording devices both in the mannequins and the video camera. For a pilot study, greater training for the prompt role and pre-briefing participants about assessment of their cardio-pulmonary resuscitation quality should be undertaken. Data could be analysed in real time with independent video analysis to validate findings. Two cameras would strengthen reliability of the methods. Copyright © 2016 College of Emergency Nursing Australasia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dynamic autonomous routing technology for IP-based satellite ad hoc networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xiaofei; Deng, Jing; Kostas, Theresa; Rajappan, Gowri

2014-06-01

IP-based routing for military LEO/MEO satellite ad hoc networks is very challenging due to network and traffic heterogeneity, network topology and traffic dynamics. In this paper, we describe a traffic priority-aware routing scheme for such networks, namely Dynamic Autonomous Routing Technology (DART) for satellite ad hoc networks. DART has a cross-layer design, and conducts routing and resource reservation concurrently for optimal performance in the fluid but predictable satellite ad hoc networks. DART ensures end-to-end data delivery with QoS assurances by only choosing routing paths that have sufficient resources, supporting different packet priority levels. In order to do so, DART incorporates several resource management and innovative routing mechanisms, which dynamically adapt to best fit the prevailing conditions. In particular, DART integrates a resource reservation mechanism to reserve network bandwidth resources; a proactive routing mechanism to set up non-overlapping spanning trees to segregate high priority traffic flows from lower priority flows so that the high priority flows do not face contention from low priority flows; a reactive routing mechanism to arbitrate resources between various traffic priorities when needed; a predictive routing mechanism to set up routes for scheduled missions and for anticipated topology changes for QoS assurance. We present simulation results showing the performance of DART. We have conducted these simulations using the Iridium constellation and trajectories as well as realistic military communications scenarios. The simulation results demonstrate DART's ability to discriminate between high-priority and low-priority traffic flows and ensure disparate QoS requirements of these traffic flows.

Integrated Cost and Schedule using Monte Carlo Simulation of a CPM Model - 12419

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hulett, David T.; Nosbisch, Michael R.

This discussion of the recommended practice (RP) 57R-09 of AACE International defines the integrated analysis of schedule and cost risk to estimate the appropriate level of cost and schedule contingency reserve on projects. The main contribution of this RP is to include the impact of schedule risk on cost risk and hence on the need for cost contingency reserves. Additional benefits include the prioritizing of the risks to cost, some of which are risks to schedule, so that risk mitigation may be conducted in a cost-effective way, scatter diagrams of time-cost pairs for developing joint targets of time and cost,more » and probabilistic cash flow which shows cash flow at different levels of certainty. Integrating cost and schedule risk into one analysis based on the project schedule loaded with costed resources from the cost estimate provides both: (1) more accurate cost estimates than if the schedule risk were ignored or incorporated only partially, and (2) illustrates the importance of schedule risk to cost risk when the durations of activities using labor-type (time-dependent) resources are risky. Many activities such as detailed engineering, construction or software development are mainly conducted by people who need to be paid even if their work takes longer than scheduled. Level-of-effort resources, such as the project management team, are extreme examples of time-dependent resources, since if the project duration exceeds its planned duration the cost of these resources will increase over their budgeted amount. The integrated cost-schedule risk analysis is based on: - A high quality CPM schedule with logic tight enough so that it will provide the correct dates and critical paths during simulation automatically without manual intervention. - A contingency-free estimate of project costs that is loaded on the activities of the schedule. - Resolves inconsistencies between cost estimate and schedule that often creep into those documents as project execution proceeds. - Good-quality risk data that are usually collected in risk interviews of the project team, management and others knowledgeable in the risk of the project. The risks from the risk register are used as the basis of the risk data in the risk driver method. The risk driver method is based in the fundamental principle that identifiable risks drive overall cost and schedule risk. - A Monte Carlo simulation software program that can simulate schedule risk, burn WM2012 rate risk and time-independent resource risk. The results include the standard histograms and cumulative distributions of possible cost and time results for the project. However, by simulating both cost and time simultaneously we can collect the cost-time pairs of results and hence show the scatter diagram ('football chart') that indicates the joint probability of finishing on time and on budget. Also, we can derive the probabilistic cash flow for comparison with the time-phased project budget. Finally the risks to schedule completion and to cost can be prioritized, say at the P-80 level of confidence, to help focus the risk mitigation efforts. If the cost and schedule estimates including contingency reserves are not acceptable to the project stakeholders the project team should conduct risk mitigation workshops and studies, deciding which risk mitigation actions to take, and re-run the Monte Carlo simulation to determine the possible improvement to the project's objectives. Finally, it is recommended that the contingency reserves of cost and of time, calculated at a level that represents an acceptable degree of certainty and uncertainty for the project stakeholders, be added as a resource-loaded activity to the project schedule for strategic planning purposes. The risk analysis described in this paper is correct only for the current plan, represented by the schedule. The project contingency reserve of time and cost that are the main results of this analysis apply if that plan is to be followed. Of course project managers have the option of re-planning and re-scheduling in the face of new facts, in part by mitigating risk. This analysis identifies the high-priority risks to cost and to schedule, which assist the project manager in planning further risk mitigation. Some project managers reject the results and argue that they cannot possibly be so late or so overrun. Those project managers may be wasting an opportunity to mitigate risk and get a more favorable outcome. (authors)« less

Global Simulation of Bioenergy Crop Productivity: Analytical Framework and Case Study for Switchgrass

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kang, Shujiang; Kline, Keith L; Nair, S. Surendran

A global energy crop productivity model that provides geospatially explicit quantitative details on biomass potential and factors affecting sustainability would be useful, but does not exist now. This study describes a modeling platform capable of meeting many challenges associated with global-scale agro-ecosystem modeling. We designed an analytical framework for bioenergy crops consisting of six major components: (i) standardized natural resources datasets, (ii) global field-trial data and crop management practices, (iii) simulation units and management scenarios, (iv) model calibration and validation, (v) high-performance computing (HPC) simulation, and (vi) simulation output processing and analysis. The HPC-Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (HPC-EPIC) model simulatedmore » a perennial bioenergy crop, switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.), estimating feedstock production potentials and effects across the globe. This modeling platform can assess soil C sequestration, net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, nonpoint source pollution (e.g., nutrient and pesticide loss), and energy exchange with the atmosphere. It can be expanded to include additional bioenergy crops (e.g., miscanthus, energy cane, and agave) and food crops under different management scenarios. The platform and switchgrass field-trial dataset are available to support global analysis of biomass feedstock production potential and corresponding metrics of sustainability.« less

Wave Resource Characterization Using an Unstructured Grid Modeling Approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wu, Wei-Cheng; Yang, Zhaoqing; Wang, Taiping

This paper presents a modeling study conducted on the central Oregon coast for wave resource characterization using the unstructured-grid SWAN model coupled with a nested-grid WWIII model. The flexibility of models of various spatial resolutions and the effects of open- boundary conditions simulated by a nested-grid WWIII model with different physics packages were evaluated. The model results demonstrate the advantage of the unstructured-grid modeling approach for flexible model resolution and good model skills in simulating the six wave resource parameters recommended by the International Electrotechnical Commission in comparison to the observed data in Year 2009 at National Data Buoy Centermore » Buoy 46050. Notably, spectral analysis indicates that the ST4 physics package improves upon the model skill of the ST2 physics package for predicting wave power density for large waves, which is important for wave resource assessment, device load calculation, and risk management. In addition, bivariate distributions show the simulated sea state of maximum occurrence with the ST4 physics package matched the observed data better than that with the ST2 physics package. This study demonstrated that the unstructured-grid wave modeling approach, driven by the nested-grid regional WWIII outputs with the ST4 physics package, can efficiently provide accurate wave hindcasts to support wave resource characterization. Our study also suggests that wind effects need to be considered if the dimension of the model domain is greater than approximately 100 km, or O (10^2 km).« less

Automated electric power management and control for Space Station Freedom

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dolce, James L.; Mellor, Pamela A.; Kish, James A.

1990-01-01

A comprehensive automation design is being developed for Space Station Freedom's electric power system. It strives to increase station productivity by applying expert systems and conventional algorithms to automate power system operation. An integrated approach to the power system command and control problem is defined and used to direct technology development in: diagnosis, security monitoring and analysis, battery management, and cooperative problem-solving for resource allocation. The prototype automated power system is developed using simulations and test-beds.

Simulation of operating rules and discretional decisions using a fuzzy rule-based system integrated into a water resources management model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Macian-Sorribes, Hector; Pulido-Velazquez, Manuel

2013-04-01

Water resources systems are operated, mostly, using a set of pre-defined rules not regarding, usually, to an optimal allocation in terms of water use or economic benefits, but to historical and institutional reasons. These operating policies are reproduced, commonly, as hedging rules, pack rules or zone-based operations, and simulation models can be used to test their performance under a wide range of hydrological and/or socio-economic hypothesis. Despite the high degree of acceptation and testing that these models have achieved, the actual operation of water resources systems hardly follows all the time the pre-defined rules with the consequent uncertainty on the system performance. Real-world reservoir operation is very complex, affected by input uncertainty (imprecision in forecast inflow, seepage and evaporation losses, etc.), filtered by the reservoir operator's experience and natural risk-aversion, while considering the different physical and legal/institutional constraints in order to meet the different demands and system requirements. The aim of this work is to expose a fuzzy logic approach to derive and assess the historical operation of a system. This framework uses a fuzzy rule-based system to reproduce pre-defined rules and also to match as close as possible the actual decisions made by managers. After built up, the fuzzy rule-based system can be integrated in a water resources management model, making possible to assess the system performance at the basin scale. The case study of the Mijares basin (eastern Spain) is used to illustrate the method. A reservoir operating curve regulates the two main reservoir releases (operated in a conjunctive way) with the purpose of guaranteeing a high realiability of supply to the traditional irrigation districts with higher priority (more senior demands that funded the reservoir construction). A fuzzy rule-based system has been created to reproduce the operating curve's performance, defining the system state (total water stored in the reservoirs) and the month of the year as inputs; and the demand deliveries as outputs. The developed simulation management model integrates the fuzzy-ruled system of the operation of the two main reservoirs of the basin with the corresponding mass balance equations, the physical or boundary conditions and the water allocation rules among the competing demands. Historical information on inflow time series is used as inputs to the model simulation, being trained and validated using historical information on reservoir storage level and flow in several streams of the Mijares river. This methodology provides a more flexible and close to real policies approach. The model is easy to develop and to understand due to its rule-based structure, which mimics the human way of thinking. This can improve cooperation and negotiation between managers, decision-makers and stakeholders. The approach can be also applied to analyze the historical operation of the reservoir (what we have called a reservoir operation "audit").

Effects of spatially distributed sectoral water management on the redistribution of water resources in an integrated water model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voisin, Nathalie; Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Leung, L. Ruby; Liu, Lu; Huang, Maoyi; Li, Hong-Yi; Tesfa, Teklu

2017-05-01

Realistic representations of sectoral water withdrawals and consumptive demands and their allocation to surface and groundwater sources are important for improving modeling of the integrated water cycle. To inform future model development, we enhance the representation of water management in a regional Earth system (ES) model with a spatially distributed allocation of sectoral water demands simulated by a regional integrated assessment (IA) model to surface and groundwater systems. The integrated modeling framework (IA-ES) is evaluated by analyzing the simulated regulated flow and sectoral supply deficit in major hydrologic regions of the conterminous U.S, which differ from ES studies looking at water storage variations. Decreases in historical supply deficit are used as metrics to evaluate IA-ES model improvement in representating the complex sectoral human activities for assessing future adaptation and mitigation strategies. We also assess the spatial changes in both regulated flow and unmet demands, for irrigation and nonirrigation sectors, resulting from the individual and combined additions of groundwater and return flow modules. Results show that groundwater use has a pronounced regional and sectoral effect by reducing water supply deficit. The effects of sectoral return flow exhibit a clear east-west contrast in the hydrologic patterns, so the return flow component combined with the IA sectoral demands is a major driver for spatial redistribution of water resources and water deficits in the US. Our analysis highlights the need for spatially distributed sectoral representation of water management to capture the regional differences in interbasin redistribution of water resources and deficits.

Synthetic Scenarios from CMIP5 Model Simulations for Climate Change Impact Assessments in Managed Ecosystems and Water Resources: Case Study in South Asian Countries

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Anandhi, A.; Omani, N.; Chaubey, I.; Horton, R.; Bader, D.; Nanjundiah, R. S.

2017-01-01

Increasing population, urbanization, and associated demand for food production compounded by climate change and variability have important implications for the managed ecosystems and water resources of a region. This is particularly true for south Asia, which supports one quarter of the global population, half of whom live below the poverty line. This region is largely dependent on monsoon precipitation for water. Given the limited resources of the developing countries in this region, the objective of our study was to empirically explore climate change in south Asia up to the year 2099 using monthly simulations from 35 global climate models (GCMs) participating in the fifth phase of the Climate Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) for two future emission scenarios (representative concentration pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and provide a wide range of potential climate change outcomes. This was carried out using a three-step procedure: calculating the mean annual, monsoon, and non-monsoon precipitation and temperatures; estimating the percent change from historical conditions; and developing scenario funnels and synthetic scenarios. This methodology was applied for the entire south Asia region; however, the percent change information generated at 1.5deg grid scale can be used to generate scenarios at finer spatial scales. Our results showed a high variability in the future change in precipitation (-23% to 52%, maximum in the non-monsoon season) and temperature (0.8% to 2.1%) in the region. Temperatures in the region consistently increased, especially in the Himalayan region, which could have impacts including a faster retreat of glaciers and increased floods. It could also change rivers from perennial to seasonal, leading to significant challenges in water management. Increasing temperatures could further stress groundwater reservoirs, leading to withdrawal rates that become even more unsustainable. The high precipitation variability (with higher propensity for localized intense rainfall events) observed in the region can be a key factor for managed ecosystems and water management and could also lead to more incidence of severe urban flooding. The results could be used to assess both mitigation and adaptation alternatives to reduce vulnerabilities in managed ecosystems (agricultural and urban) and water resources.

Analysis and simulation of regional subsidence accompanying groundwater abstraction and compaction of susceptible aquifer systems in the USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Galloway, Devin L.; Sneed, Michelle

2013-01-01

Regional aquifer-system compaction and land subsidence accompanying groundwater abstraction in susceptible aquifer systems in the USA is a challenge for managing groundwater resources and mitigating associated hazards. Developments in the assessment of regional subsidence provide more information to constrain analyses and simulation of aquifer-system compaction. Current popular approaches to simulating vertical aquifer-system deformation (compaction), such as those embodied in the aquitard drainage model and the MODFLOW subsidence packages, have proven useful from the perspective of regional groundwater resources assessment. However, these approaches inadequately address related local-scale hazards—ground ruptures and damages to engineered structures on the land surface arising from tensional stresses and strains accompanying groundwater abstraction. This paper presents a brief overview of the general approaches taken by the U.S. Geological Survey toward understanding aquifer-system compaction and subsidence with regard to a) identifying the affected aquifer systems; b) making regional assessments; c) analyzing the governing processes; and d) simulating historical and future groundwater flow and subsidence conditions. Limitations and shortcomings of these approaches, as well as future challenges also are discussed.

Contrarian behavior in a complex adaptive system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, Y.; An, K. N.; Yang, G.; Huang, J. P.

2013-01-01

Contrarian behavior is a kind of self-organization in complex adaptive systems (CASs). Here we report the existence of a transition point in a model resource-allocation CAS with contrarian behavior by using human experiments, computer simulations, and theoretical analysis. The resource ratio and system predictability serve as the tuning parameter and order parameter, respectively. The transition point helps to reveal the positive or negative role of contrarian behavior. This finding is in contrast to the common belief that contrarian behavior always has a positive role in resource allocation, say, stabilizing resource allocation by shrinking the redundancy or the lack of resources. It is further shown that resource allocation can be optimized at the transition point by adding an appropriate size of contrarians. This work is also expected to be of value to some other fields ranging from management and social science to ecology and evolution.

CERN Computing in Commercial Clouds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cordeiro, C.; Field, L.; Garrido Bear, B.; Giordano, D.; Jones, B.; Keeble, O.; Manzi, A.; Martelli, E.; McCance, G.; Moreno-García, D.; Traylen, S.

2017-10-01

By the end of 2016 more than 10 Million core-hours of computing resources have been delivered by several commercial cloud providers to the four LHC experiments to run their production workloads, from simulation to full chain processing. In this paper we describe the experience gained at CERN in procuring and exploiting commercial cloud resources for the computing needs of the LHC experiments. The mechanisms used for provisioning, monitoring, accounting, alarming and benchmarking will be discussed, as well as the involvement of the LHC collaborations in terms of managing the workflows of the experiments within a multicloud environment.

Fuzzy-logic based Q-Learning interference management algorithms in two-tier networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Qiang; Xu, Zezhong; Li, Li; Zheng, Yan

2017-10-01

Unloading from macrocell network and enhancing coverage can be realized by deploying femtocells in the indoor scenario. However, the system performance of the two-tier network could be impaired by the co-tier and cross-tier interference. In this paper, a distributed resource allocation scheme is studied when each femtocell base station is self-governed and the resource cannot be assigned centrally through the gateway. A novel Q-Learning interference management scheme is proposed, that is divided into cooperative and independent part. In the cooperative algorithm, the interference information is exchanged between the cell-edge users which are classified by the fuzzy logic in the same cell. Meanwhile, we allocate the orthogonal subchannels to the high-rate cell-edge users to disperse the interference power when the data rate requirement is satisfied. The resource is assigned directly according to the minimum power principle in the independent algorithm. Simulation results are provided to demonstrate the significant performance improvements in terms of the average data rate, interference power and energy efficiency over the cutting-edge resource allocation algorithms.

Integrating the simulation of domestic water demand behaviour to an urban water model using agent based modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koutiva, Ifigeneia; Makropoulos, Christos

2015-04-01

The urban water system's sustainable evolution requires tools that can analyse and simulate the complete cycle including both physical and cultural environments. One of the main challenges, in this regard, is the design and development of tools that are able to simulate the society's water demand behaviour and the way policy measures affect it. The effects of these policy measures are a function of personal opinions that subsequently lead to the formation of people's attitudes. These attitudes will eventually form behaviours. This work presents the design of an ABM tool for addressing the social dimension of the urban water system. The created tool, called Urban Water Agents' Behaviour (UWAB) model, was implemented, using the NetLogo agent programming language. The main aim of the UWAB model is to capture the effects of policies and environmental pressures to water conservation behaviour of urban households. The model consists of agents representing urban households that are linked to each other creating a social network that influences the water conservation behaviour of its members. Household agents are influenced as well by policies and environmental pressures, such as drought. The UWAB model simulates behaviour resulting in the evolution of water conservation within an urban population. The final outcome of the model is the evolution of the distribution of different conservation levels (no, low, high) to the selected urban population. In addition, UWAB is implemented in combination with an existing urban water management simulation tool, the Urban Water Optioneering Tool (UWOT) in order to create a modelling platform aiming to facilitate an adaptive approach of water resources management. For the purposes of this proposed modelling platform, UWOT is used in a twofold manner: (1) to simulate domestic water demand evolution and (2) to simulate the response of the water system to the domestic water demand evolution. The main advantage of the UWAB - UWOT model integration is that it allows the investigation of the effects of different water demand management strategies to an urban population's water demand behaviour and ultimately the effects of these policies to the volume of domestic water demand and the water resources system. The proposed modelling platform is optimised to simulate the effects of water policies during the Athens drought period of 1988-1994. The calibrated modelling platform is then applied to evaluate scenarios of water supply, water demand and water demand management strategies.

Comparison of virtual patient simulation with mannequin-based simulation for improving clinical performances in assessing and managing clinical deterioration: randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

Liaw, Sok Ying; Chan, Sally Wai-Chi; Chen, Fun-Gee; Hooi, Shing Chuan; Siau, Chiang

2014-09-17

Virtual patient simulation has grown substantially in health care education. A virtual patient simulation was developed as a refresher training course to reinforce nursing clinical performance in assessing and managing deteriorating patients. The objective of this study was to describe the development of the virtual patient simulation and evaluate its efficacy, by comparing with a conventional mannequin-based simulation, for improving the nursing students' performances in assessing and managing patients with clinical deterioration. A randomized controlled study was conducted with 57 third-year nursing students who were recruited through email. After a baseline evaluation of all participants' clinical performance in a simulated environment, the experimental group received a 2-hour fully automated virtual patient simulation while the control group received 2-hour facilitator-led mannequin-based simulation training. All participants were then re-tested one day (first posttest) and 2.5 months (second posttest) after the intervention. The participants from the experimental group completed a survey to evaluate their learning experiences with the newly developed virtual patient simulation. Compared to their baseline scores, both experimental and control groups demonstrated significant improvements (P<.001) in first and second post-test scores. While the experimental group had significantly lower (P<.05) second post-test scores compared with the first post-test scores, no significant difference (P=.94) was found between these two scores for the control group. The scores between groups did not differ significantly over time (P=.17). The virtual patient simulation was rated positively. A virtual patient simulation for a refreshing training course on assessing and managing clinical deterioration was developed. Although the randomized controlled study did not show that the virtual patient simulation was superior to mannequin-based simulation, both simulations have demonstrated to be effective refresher learning strategies for improving nursing students' clinical performance. Given the greater resource requirements of mannequin-based simulation, the virtual patient simulation provides a more promising alternative learning strategy to mitigate the decay of clinical performance over time.

Listings of model values for the simulation of ground-water flow in the Cimarron River alluvium and terrace deposits from Freedom to Guthrie, Oklahoma

USGS Publications Warehouse

Adams, G.P.

1995-01-01

This report contains MODFLOW input and output listings for the simulation of ground-water flow in alluvium and terrace deposits associated with the Cimarron River from Freedom to Guthrie, Oklahoma. These values are to be used in conjuction with the report, 'Geohydrology of alluvium and terrace deposits of the Cimarron River from Freedom to Guthrie, Oklahoma,' by G.P. Adams and D.L. Bergman, published as U.S. Geological Survey Water-Resources Investigatons Report 95-4066. The simulation used a digital ground-water flow model and was evaluated by a management and statistical program.

A Harder Rain is Going to Fall: Challenges for Actionable Projections of Extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Collins, W.

2014-12-01

Hydrometeorological extremes are projected to increase in both severity and frequency as the Earth's surface continues to warm in response to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases. These extremes will directly affect the availability and reliability of water and other critical resources. The most comprehensive suite of multi-model projections has been assembled under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 5 (CMIP5) and assessed in the Fifth Assessment (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). In order for these projections to be actionable, the projections should exhibit consistency and fidelity down to the local length and timescales required for operational resource planning, for example the scales relevant for water allocations from a major watershed. In this presentation, we summarize the length and timescales relevant for resource planning and then use downscaled versions of the IPCC simulations over the contiguous United States to address three questions. First, over what range of scales is there quantitative agreement between the simulated historical extremes and in situ measurements? Second, does this range of scales in the historical and future simulations overlap with the scales relevant for resource management and adaptation? Third, does downscaling enhance the degree of multi-model consistency at scales smaller than the typical global model resolution? We conclude by using these results to highlight requirements for further model development to make the next generation of models more useful for planning purposes.

Quantifying effects of humans and climate on groundwater resources of Hawaii through sharp-interface modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rotzoll, K.; Izuka, S. K.; Nishikawa, T.; Fienen, M. N.; El-Kadi, A. I.

2016-12-01

Some of the volcanic-rock aquifers of the islands of Hawaii are substantially developed, leading to concerns related to the effects of groundwater withdrawals on saltwater intrusion and stream base-flow reduction. A numerical modeling analysis using recent available information (e.g., recharge, withdrawals, hydrogeologic framework, and conceptual models of groundwater flow) advances current understanding of groundwater flow and provides insight into the effects of human activity and climate change on Hawaii's water resources. Three island-wide groundwater-flow models (Kauai, Oahu, and Maui) were constructed using MODFLOW 2005 coupled with the Seawater-Intrusion Package (SWI2), which simulates the transition between saltwater and freshwater in the aquifer as a sharp interface. This approach allowed coarse vertical discretization (maximum of two layers) without ignoring the freshwater-saltwater system at the regional scale. Model construction (FloPy3), parameter estimation (PEST), and analysis of results were streamlined using Python scripts. Model simulations included pre-development (1870) and recent (average of 2001-10) scenarios for each island. Additionally, scenarios for future withdrawals and climate change were simulated for Oahu. We present our streamlined approach and results showing estimated effects of human activity on the groundwater resource by quantifying decline in water levels, rise of the freshwater-saltwater interface, and reduction in stream base flow. Water-resource managers can use this information to evaluate consequences of groundwater development that can constrain future groundwater availability.

The Importance of Simulation Workflow and Data Management in the Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bader, D. C.

2015-12-01

The Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME) Project is concluding its first year. Supported by the Office of Science in the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), its vision is to be "an ongoing, state-of-the-science Earth system modeling, modeling simulation and prediction project that optimizes the use of DOE laboratory resources to meet the science needs of the nation and the mission needs of DOE." Included in the "laboratory resources," is a large investment in computational, network and information technologies that will be utilized to both build better and more accurate climate models and broadly disseminate the data they generate. Current model diagnostic analysis and data dissemination technologies will not scale to the size of the simulations and the complexity of the models envisioned by ACME and other top tier international modeling centers. In this talk, the ACME Workflow component plans to meet these future needs will be described and early implementation examples will be highlighted.

Decision Making Training in the Mission Operations Directorate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

O'Keefe, William S.

2013-01-01

At JSC, we train our new flight controllers on a set of team skills that we call Space Flight Resource Management (SFRM). SFRM is akin to Crew Resource Management for the airlines and trains flight controllers to work as an effective team to reduce errors and improve safety. We have developed this training over the years with the assistance of Ames Research Center, Wyle Labs and University of Central Florida. One of the skills we teach is decision making/ problem solving (DM/PS). We teach DM/PS first in several classroom sessions, reinforce it in several part task training environments, and finally practice it in full-mission, full-team simulations. What I am proposing to talk about is this training flow: its content and how we teach it.

Simulated ward round: reducing costs, not outcomes.

PubMed

Ford, Helen; Cleland, Jennifer; Thomas, Ian

2017-02-01

Distractions and interruptions on the ward pose substantial patient safety risks, but medical students receive little training on their management. Although there is some evidence that medical students can be taught how to manage distractions and interruptions in a simulated ward environment, the only model to date is based on individual feedback, which is resource-expensive, mitigating curricular integration. Our aim was to assess the educational utility of a cost-efficient approach to a patient safety-focused simulated ward round. Twenty-three of 55 final-year medical students took part in a cost-reduced simulated ward round. Costs were minimised by providing group rather than individualised feedback, thereby shortening the duration of each simulation and reducing the number of interruptions. The utility of the simulation was assessed via student evaluation and performance on a patient safety station of an objective structured clinical examination (OSCE). The direct costs of the simulation were more than 50 per cent lower per student compared with the original study, mostly as a result of a reduction in the time that faculty members took to give feedback. Students managed distractions better and received higher scores in the OSCE station than those who had not undergone the ward round. Group feedback was evaluated positively by most participants: 94 per cent of those who provided feedback agreed or strongly agreed that the simulation would make them a safer doctor and would improve their handling of distractions. Our aim was to assess the educational utility of a cost-efficient approach to a patient safety-focused simulated ward round DISCUSSION: The costs of a simulated ward round can be significantly reduced whilst maintaining educational utility. These findings should encourage medical schools to integrate ward simulation into curricula. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Using simulation to educate hospital staff about casemix.

PubMed

Cromwell, D A; Priddis, D; Hindle, D

1998-10-01

When the Australian government funded a casemix development program, few hospital clinicians or staff knew much about casemix classifications like Diagnosis Related Groups (DRGs). Although the concepts behind casemix are essentially simple, it is not a trivial task to explain the logic used to assign patients to classes, or the use of casemix data for management or funding. Therefore, as part of a project to create educational material, a computer-based management game, built around a simulation model of a hospital, was developed. The game was designed for use in a workshop setting, to allow participants to test their understanding of the casemix information presented to them. The simulation mimicked the operation of a hospital, with a player taking the role of a hospital manager. It aimed to demonstrate how AN-DRGs might be used for funding; how patient costs are influenced by hospital activity; and how casemix data can assist in monitoring the use of resources. The game, called Dragon, proved to be very successful, and is now distributed as part of the National Casemix Education series.

Design of operating rules in complex water resources systems using historical records, expert criteria and fuzzy logic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pulido-Velazquez, Manuel; Macian-Sorribes, Hector; María Benlliure-Moreno, Jose; Fullana-Montoro, Juan

2015-04-01

Water resources systems in areas with a strong tradition in water use are complex to manage by the high amount of constraints that overlap in time and space, creating a complicated framework in which past, present and future collide between them. In addition, it is usual to find "hidden constraints" in system operations, which condition operation decisions being unnoticed by anyone but the river managers and users. Being aware of those hidden constraints requires usually years of experience and a degree of involvement in that system's management operations normally beyond the possibilities of technicians. However, their impact in the management decisions is strongly imprinted in the historical data records available. The purpose of this contribution is to present a methodology capable of assessing operating rules in complex water resources systems combining historical records and expert criteria. Both sources are coupled using fuzzy logic. The procedure stages are: 1) organize expert-technicians preliminary meetings to let the first explain how they manage the system; 2) set up a fuzzy rule-based system (FRB) structure according to the way the system is managed; 3) use the historical records available to estimate the inputs' fuzzy numbers, to assign preliminary output values to the FRB rules and to train and validate these rules; 4) organize expert-technician meetings to discuss the rule structure and the input's quantification, returning if required to the second stage; 5) once the FRB structure is accepted, its output values must be refined and completed with the aid of the experts by using meetings, workshops or surveys; 6) combine the FRB with a Decision Support System (DSS) to simulate the effect of those management decisions; 7) compare its results with the ones offered by the historical records and/or simulation or optimization models; and 8) discuss with the stakeholders the model performance returning, if it's required, to the fifth or the second stage. The methodology proposed has been applied to the Jucar River Basin (Spain). This basin has 3 reservoirs, 4 headwaters, 11 demands and 5 environmental flows; which form together a complex constraint set. After the preliminary meetings, one 81-rule FRB was created, using as inputs the system state variables at the start of the hydrologic year, and as outputs the target reservoir release schedule. The inputs' fuzzy numbers were estimated jointly using surveys. Fifteen years of historical records were used to train the system's outputs. The obtained FRB was then refined during additional expert-technician meetings. After that, the resulting FRB was introduced into a DSS simulating the effect of those management rules for different hydrological conditions. Three additional FRB's were created using: 1) exclusively the historical records; 2) a stochastic optimization model; and 3) a deterministic optimization model. The results proved to be consistent with the expectations, with the stakeholder's FRB performance located between the data-driven simulation and the stochastic optimization FRB's; and reflect the stakeholders' major goals and concerns about the river management. ACKNOWLEDGEMENT: This study has been partially supported by the IMPADAPT project (CGL2013-48424-C2-1-R) with Spanish MINECO (Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad) funds.

System-of-Systems Approach for Integrated Energy Systems Modeling and Simulation: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mittal, Saurabh; Ruth, Mark; Pratt, Annabelle

Today’s electricity grid is the most complex system ever built—and the future grid is likely to be even more complex because it will incorporate distributed energy resources (DERs) such as wind, solar, and various other sources of generation and energy storage. The complexity is further augmented by the possible evolution to new retail market structures that provide incentives to owners of DERs to support the grid. To understand and test new retail market structures and technologies such as DERs, demand-response equipment, and energy management systems while providing reliable electricity to all customers, an Integrated Energy System Model (IESM) is beingmore » developed at NREL. The IESM is composed of a power flow simulator (GridLAB-D), home energy management systems implemented using GAMS/Pyomo, a market layer, and hardware-in-the-loop simulation (testing appliances such as HVAC, dishwasher, etc.). The IESM is a system-of-systems (SoS) simulator wherein the constituent systems are brought together in a virtual testbed. We will describe an SoS approach for developing a distributed simulation environment. We will elaborate on the methodology and the control mechanisms used in the co-simulation illustrated by a case study.« less

A global biogeocenotical biosphere simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moiseyev, N. N.

1980-01-01

This model of the D. Forrester type, constructed in differential equations, predicts the food and mineral supply for the factors biosphere population, depending on two socio-economic factors, until about the year 2500. If contemporary rates of natural resources utilization are maintained and there is no management of the environment, food resources will begin to limit human population growth after 2200, and mineral resources will after 2300. A decrease in the biosphere pollution, increase in effective agricultural production, and discovery of new energy sources may forestall or completely avert the onset of a crisis situation. Conservation measures, according to the model, are to a considerable extent realizable only if carried out simultaneously in both areas.

Statistical, economic and other tools for assessing natural aggregate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bliss, J.D.; Moyle, P.R.; Bolm, K.S.

2003-01-01

Quantitative aggregate resource assessment provides resource estimates useful for explorationists, land managers and those who make decisions about land allocation, which may have long-term implications concerning cost and the availability of aggregate resources. Aggregate assessment needs to be systematic and consistent, yet flexible enough to allow updating without invalidating other parts of the assessment. Evaluators need to use standard or consistent aggregate classification and statistic distributions or, in other words, models with geological, geotechnical and economic variables or interrelationships between these variables. These models can be used with subjective estimates, if needed, to estimate how much aggregate may be present in a region or country using distributions generated by Monte Carlo computer simulations.

Consumer Education Project: Community Approach Utilizing an Off-Campus Facility.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Santa Barbara Elementary and High School District, CA. Career Education Dept.

The project reported here was conducted to develop a consumer education program for high school students (grades 10 through 12) which would: (1) provide students with hands-on experiences in the management of resources (money, time, and energy) as householders in a simulated off-campus laboratory (a community girls' club), and (2) enable students…

Chapter 6 - Developing the LANDFIRE Vegetation and Biophysical Settings Map Unit Classifications for the LANDFIRE Prototype Project

Treesearch

Jennifer L. Long; Melanie Miller; James P. Menakis; Robert E. Keane

2006-01-01

The Landscape Fire and Resource Management Planning Tools Prototype Project, or LANDFIRE Prototype Project, required a system for classifying vegetation composition, biophysical settings, and vegetation structure to facilitate the mapping of vegetation and wildland fuel characteristics and the simulation of vegetation dynamics using landscape modeling. We developed...

Chapter 8 - Mapping existing vegetation composition and structure for the LANDFIRE Prototype Project

Treesearch

Zhiliang Zhu; James Vogelmann; Donald Ohlen; Jay Kost; Xuexia Chen; Brian Tolk

2006-01-01

The Landscape Fire and Resource Management Planning Tools Prototype Project, or LANDFIRE Prototype Project, required the mapping of existing vegetation composition (cover type) and structural stages at a 30-m spatial resolution to provide baseline vegetation data for the development of wildland fuel maps and for comparison to simulated historical vegetation reference...

Adapting the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model for forest applications

Treesearch

Shuhui Dun; Joan Q. Wu; William J. Elliot; Peter R. Robichaud; Dennis C. Flanagan; James R. Frankenberger; Robert E. Brown; Arthur C. Xu

2009-01-01

There has been an increasing public concern over forest stream pollution by excessive sedimentation due to natural or human disturbances. Adequate erosion simulation tools are needed for sound management of forest resources. The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) watershed model has proved useful in forest applications where Hortonian flow is the major form of...

Virtual Learning. A Revolutionary Approach to Building a Highly Skilled Workforce.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schank, Roger

This book offers trainers and human resource managers an alternative approach to train people more effectively and capitalize on multimedia-based tools. The approach is based on computer-based training and virtual learning theory. Chapter 1 discusses how to remedy problems caused by bad training. Chapter 2 focuses on simulating work and creating…

Formulating a stand-growth model for mathematical programming problems in Appalachian forests

Treesearch

Gary W. Miller; Jay Sullivan

1993-01-01

Some growth and yield simulators applicable to central hardwood forests can be formulated for use in mathematical programming models that are designed to optimize multi-stand, multi-resource management problems. Once in the required format, growth equations serve as model constraints, defining the dynamics of stand development brought about by harvesting decisions. In...

A Process Improvement Study on a Military System of Clinics to Manage Patient Demand and Resource Utilization Using Discrete-Event Simulation, Sensitivity Analysis, and Cost-Benefit Analysis

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-03-12

26 Table 3: Optometry Clinic Frequency Count... Optometry Clinic Frequency Count.................................................................. 86 Table 22: Probability Distribution Summary Table...Clinic, the Audiology Clinic, and the Optometry Clinic. Methodology Overview The overarching research goal is to identify feasible solutions to

Considerations in Managing the Fill Rate of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Reservoir Using a System Dynamics Approach.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Keith, Bruce; Ford, David N.; Horton, Radley M.

2016-01-01

The purpose of this study is to evaluate simulated fill rate scenarios for the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam while taking into account plausible climate change outcomes for the Nile River Basin. The region lacks a comprehensive equitable water resource management strategy, which creates regional security concerns and future possible conflicts. We employ climate estimates from 33 general circulation models within a system dynamics model as a step in moving toward a feasible regional water resource management strategy. We find that annual reservoir fill rates of 8-15% are capable of building hydroelectric capacity in Ethiopia while concurrently ensuring a minimum level of stream flow disruption into Egypt before 2039. Insofar as climate change estimates suggest a modest average increase in stream flow into the Aswan, climate changes through 2039 are unlikely to affect the fill rate policies. However, larger fill rates will have a more detrimental effect on stream flow into the Aswan, particularly beyond a policy of 15%. While this study demonstrates that a technical solution for reservoir fill rates is feasible, the corresponding policy challenge is political. Implementation of water resource management strategies in the Nile River Basin specifically and Africa generally will necessitate a national and regional willingness to cooperate.

A Workflow-based Intelligent Network Data Movement Advisor with End-to-end Performance Optimization

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhu, Michelle M.; Wu, Chase Q.

2013-11-07

Next-generation eScience applications often generate large amounts of simulation, experimental, or observational data that must be shared and managed by collaborative organizations. Advanced networking technologies and services have been rapidly developed and deployed to facilitate such massive data transfer. However, these technologies and services have not been fully utilized mainly because their use typically requires significant domain knowledge and in many cases application users are even not aware of their existence. By leveraging the functionalities of an existing Network-Aware Data Movement Advisor (NADMA) utility, we propose a new Workflow-based Intelligent Network Data Movement Advisor (WINDMA) with end-to-end performance optimization formore » this DOE funded project. This WINDMA system integrates three major components: resource discovery, data movement, and status monitoring, and supports the sharing of common data movement workflows through account and database management. This system provides a web interface and interacts with existing data/space management and discovery services such as Storage Resource Management, transport methods such as GridFTP and GlobusOnline, and network resource provisioning brokers such as ION and OSCARS. We demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed transport-support workflow system in several use cases based on its implementation and deployment in DOE wide-area networks.« less

Application of Water Evaluation and Planning Model for Integrated Water Resources Management: Case Study of Langat River Basin, Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leong, W. K.; Lai, S. H.

2017-06-01

Due to the effects of climate change and the increasing demand on water, sustainable development in term of water resources management has become a major challenge. In this context, the application of simulation models is useful to duel with the uncertainty and complexity of water system by providing stakeholders with the best solution. This paper outlines an integrated management planning network is developed based on Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) to evaluate current and future water management system of Langat River Basin, Malaysia under various scenarios. The WEAP model is known as an integrated decision support system investigate major stresses on demand and supply in terms of water availability in catchment scale. In fact, WEAP is applicable to simulate complex systems including various sectors within a single catchment or transboundary river system. To construct the model, by taking account of the Langat catchment and the corresponding demand points, we defined the hydrological model into 10 sub-hydrological catchments and 17 demand points included the export of treated water to the major cities outside the catchment. The model is calibrated and verified by several quantitative statistics (coefficient of determination, R2; Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, NSE and Percent bias, PBIAS). The trend of supply and demand in the catchment is evaluated under three scenarios to 2050, 1: Population growth rate, 2: Demand side management (DSM) and 3: Combination of DSM and reduce non-revenue water (NRW). Results show that by reducing NRW and proper DSM, unmet demand able to reduce significantly.

The Virtual Watershed Observatory: Cyberinfrastructure for Model-Data Integration and Access

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duffy, C.; Leonard, L. N.; Giles, L.; Bhatt, G.; Yu, X.

2011-12-01

The Virtual Watershed Observatory (VWO) is a concept where scientists, water managers, educators and the general public can create a virtual observatory from integrated hydrologic model results, national databases and historical or real-time observations via web services. In this paper, we propose a prototype for automated and virtualized web services software using national data products for climate reanalysis, soils, geology, terrain and land cover. The VWO has the broad purpose of making accessible water resource simulations, real-time data assimilation, calibration and archival at the scale of HUC 12 watersheds (Hydrologic Unit Code) anywhere in the continental US. Our prototype for model-data integration focuses on creating tools for fast data storage from selected national databases, as well as the computational resources necessary for a dynamic, distributed watershed simulation. The paper will describe cyberinfrastructure tools and workflow that attempts to resolve the problem of model-data accessibility and scalability such that individuals, research teams, managers and educators can create a WVO in a desired context. Examples are given for the NSF-funded Shale Hills Critical Zone Observatory and the European Critical Zone Observatories within the SoilTrEC project. In the future implementation of WVO services will benefit from the development of a cloud cyber infrastructure as the prototype evolves to data and model intensive computation for continental scale water resource predictions.

Development of modelling method selection tool for health services management: from problem structuring methods to modelling and simulation methods.

PubMed

Jun, Gyuchan T; Morris, Zoe; Eldabi, Tillal; Harper, Paul; Naseer, Aisha; Patel, Brijesh; Clarkson, John P

2011-05-19

There is an increasing recognition that modelling and simulation can assist in the process of designing health care policies, strategies and operations. However, the current use is limited and answers to questions such as what methods to use and when remain somewhat underdeveloped. The aim of this study is to provide a mechanism for decision makers in health services planning and management to compare a broad range of modelling and simulation methods so that they can better select and use them or better commission relevant modelling and simulation work. This paper proposes a modelling and simulation method comparison and selection tool developed from a comprehensive literature review, the research team's extensive expertise and inputs from potential users. Twenty-eight different methods were identified, characterised by their relevance to different application areas, project life cycle stages, types of output and levels of insight, and four input resources required (time, money, knowledge and data). The characterisation is presented in matrix forms to allow quick comparison and selection. This paper also highlights significant knowledge gaps in the existing literature when assessing the applicability of particular approaches to health services management, where modelling and simulation skills are scarce let alone money and time. A modelling and simulation method comparison and selection tool is developed to assist with the selection of methods appropriate to supporting specific decision making processes. In particular it addresses the issue of which method is most appropriate to which specific health services management problem, what the user might expect to be obtained from the method, and what is required to use the method. In summary, we believe the tool adds value to the scarce existing literature on methods comparison and selection.

Simulating adaptive wood harvest in a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yousefpour, Rasoul; Nabel, Julia; Pongratz, Julia

2016-04-01

The world's forest experience substantial carbon exchange fluxes between land and atmosphere. Large carbon sinks occur in response to changes in environmental conditions (such as climate change and increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations), removing about one quarter of current anthropogenic CO2-emissions. Large sinks also occur due to regrowth of forest on areas of agricultural abandonment or forest management. Forest management, on the other hand, also leads to substantial amounts of carbon being eventually released to the atmosphere. Both sinks and sources attributable to forests are therefore dependent on the intensity of management. Forest management in turn depends on the availability of resources, which is influenced by environmental conditions and sustainability of management systems applied. Estimating future carbon fluxes therefore requires accounting for the interaction of environmental conditions, forest growth, and management. However, this interaction is not fully captured by current modeling approaches: Earth system models depict in detail interactions between climate, the carbon cycle, and vegetation growth, but use prescribed information on management. Resource needs and land management, however, are simulated by Integrated Assessment Models that typically only have coarse representations of the influence of environmental changes on vegetation growth and are typically based on the demand for wood driven by regional population growth and energy needs. Here we present a study that provides the link between environmental conditions, forest growth and management. We extend the land component JSBACH of the Max Planck Institute's Earth system model (MPI-ESM) to simulate potential wood harvest in response to altered growth conditions and thus as adaptive to changing climate and CO2 conditions. We apply the altered model to estimate potential wood harvest for future climates (representative concentration pathways, RCPs) for the management scenario of "sustained yields" (SY), i.e. that wood harvest is not allowed to reduce wood carbon stocks below their present-day average state. We find that the potentials for SY range from about 420 to 610 PgC cumulatively until 2100 depending on assumed future climate (RCPs 2.6, 4.5 or 8.5). They are thus substantially higher than the harvest prescribed in the context of the same RCPs for the coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP5), which ranged from about 130 to 210 PgC. The underlying drivers of the higher potentials of SY as compared to the RCP harvest are in all scenarios foremost avoided natural mortality, followed by avoided losses due to fire and windbreak. Further, usage of the increase in forest carbon stocks simulated with time under RCP harvest plays a large role in the first decades of the 21st century. The potential wood harvest that we simulate accounting for environmental changes does not include considerations on biodiversity and other ecosystem services or technical feasibility. However, the substantially higher simulated harvest from SY as compared to that prescribed from the RCPs and the difference found between climate scenarios highlights the need to account for effects of environmental changes on vegetation growth also in socio-economic models and thus the need for a consistent representation of climate-landuse interactions.

Improving the performance of surgery-based clinical pathways: a simulation-optimization approach.

PubMed

Ozcan, Yasar A; Tànfani, Elena; Testi, Angela

2017-03-01

This paper aims to improve the performance of clinical processes using clinical pathways (CPs). The specific goal of this research is to develop a decision support tool, based on a simulation-optimization approach, which identify the proper adjustment and alignment of resources to achieve better performance for both the patients and the health-care facility. When multiple perspectives are present in a decision problem, critical issues arise and often require the balancing of goals. In our approach, meeting patients' clinical needs in a timely manner, and to avoid worsening of clinical conditions, we assess the level of appropriate resources. The simulation-optimization model seeks and evaluates alternative resource configurations aimed at balancing the two main objectives-meeting patient needs and optimal utilization of beds and operating rooms.Using primary data collected at a Department of Surgery of a public hospital located in Genoa, Italy. The simulation-optimization modelling approach in this study has been applied to evaluate the thyroid surgical treatment together with the other surgery-based CPs. The low rate of bed utilization and the long elective waiting lists of the specialty under study indicates that the wards were oversized while the operating room capacity was the bottleneck of the system. The model enables hospital managers determine which objective has to be given priority, as well as the corresponding opportunity costs.

Land-use impacts on water resources and protected areas: applications of state-and-transition simulation modeling of future scenarios

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilson, Tamara; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Sherba, Jason T.; Dick Cameron,

2015-01-01

Human land use will increasingly contribute to habitat loss and water shortages in California, given future population projections and associated land-use demand. Understanding how land-use change may impact future water use and where existing protected areas may be threatened by land-use conversion will be important if effective, sustainable management approaches are to be implemented. We used a state-and-transition simulation modeling (STSM) framework to simulate spatially-explicit (1 km2) historical (1992-2010) and future (2011-2060) land-use change for 52 California counties within Mediterranean California ecoregions. Historical land use and land cover (LULC) change estimates were derived from the Farmland Mapping and Monitoring Program dataset and attributed with county-level agricultural water-use data from the California Department of Water Resources. Five future alternative land-use scenarios were developed and modeled using the historical land-use change estimates and land-use projections based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Special Report on Emission Scenarios A2 and B1 scenarios. Spatial land-use transition outputs across scenarios were combined to reveal scenario agreement and a land conversion threat index was developed to evaluate vulnerability of existing protected areas to proximal land conversion. By 2060, highest LULC conversion threats were projected to impact nearly 10,500 km2 of land area within 10 km of a protected area boundary and over 18,000 km2 of land area within essential habitat connectivity areas. Agricultural water use declined across all scenarios perpetuating historical drought-related land use from 2008-2010 and trends of annual cropland conversion into perennial woody crops. STSM is useful in analyzing land-use related impacts on water resource use as well as potential threats to existing protected land. Exploring a range of alternative, yet plausible, LULC change impacts will help to better inform resource management and mitigation strategies.

Climate, Energy, Water, Land and the Spill-Over Effect (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tidwell, V. C.; Backus, G.; Bier, A.; Brune, N.; Brown, T. J.

2013-12-01

Developing nations incur a greater risk to climate stress than the developed world due to poorly managed natural resources, unreliable infrastructure and brittle governing/economic institutions. When fragile states are stressed these vulnerabilities are often manifest in a 'domino effect' of reduced natural resource production-leading to economic hardship-followed by desperate emigration, social unrest, and humanitarian crises. The impact is not limited to a single nation or region but 'spills over' to adjoining areas with even broader impact on global markets and security. Toward this problem we are developing a model of climate aggravated spill-over that couples social, economic, infrastructure and resource dynamics and constraints. The model integrates system dynamics and agent based simulation to identify regions vulnerable to the spill-over effect and to explore potential mitigating and/or adaptive measures. At the heart of the analysis is human migration which is modeled by combining aspects of the Protection Motivation Theory and Theory of Planned Behavior within the mechanistic framework of Fick's first law of diffusion. Agents in the current model are distinguished at the country level by country of residence, country of origin, gender, education/skill, age, and rural/urban roots. The model of the environment in which the agents operate endogenously simulates economy, labor, population, disease, violence, energy, water, and food sectors. Various climate scenarios distinguished by differences in temperature, precipitation and extreme events, are simulated over a 50 year time horizon. Results allow exploration of the nexus between climate change, resource provisioning, especially energy, water and land, and the resultant adaptive response of the impacted population. Current modeling efforts are focused on the developing nations of West Africa. Sandia National Laboratories is a multi-program laboratory managed and operated by Sandia Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lockheed Martin Corporation, for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000. Schematic of spill-over effects model.

The impact of Best Management Practices on simulated streamflow and sediment load in a Central Brazilian catchment.

PubMed

Strauch, Michael; Lima, Jorge E F W; Volk, Martin; Lorz, Carsten; Makeschin, Franz

2013-09-01

The intense use of water for both public supply and agricultural production causes societal conflicts and environmental problems in the Brazilian Federal District. A serious consequence of this is nonpoint source pollution which leads to increasing water treatment costs. Hence, this study investigates in how far agricultural Best Management Practices (BMPs) might contribute to sustainable water resources management and soil protection in the region. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to study the impact of those practices on streamflow and sediment load in the intensively cropped catchment of the Pipiripau River. The model was calibrated and validated against measured streamflow and turbidity-derived sediment loads. By means of scenario simulations, it was found that structural BMPs such as parallel terraces and small sediment basins ('Barraginhas') can lead to sediment load reductions of up to 40%. The implementation of these measures did not adversely affect the water yield. In contrast, multi-diverse crop rotations including irrigated dry season crops were found to be disadvantageous in terms of water availability by significantly reducing streamflow during low flow periods. The study considers rainfall uncertainty by using a precipitation data ensemble, but nevertheless highlights the importance of well established monitoring systems due to related shortcomings in model calibration. Despite the existing uncertainties, the model results are useful for water resource managers to develop water and soil protection strategies for the Pipiripau River Basin and for watersheds with similar characteristics. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Commissioning the CERN IT Agile Infrastructure with experiment workloads

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Medrano Llamas, Ramón; Harald Barreiro Megino, Fernando; Kucharczyk, Katarzyna; Kamil Denis, Marek; Cinquilli, Mattia

2014-06-01

In order to ease the management of their infrastructure, most of the WLCG sites are adopting cloud based strategies. In the case of CERN, the Tier 0 of the WLCG, is completely restructuring the resource and configuration management of their computing center under the codename Agile Infrastructure. Its goal is to manage 15,000 Virtual Machines by means of an OpenStack middleware in order to unify all the resources in CERN's two datacenters: the one placed in Meyrin and the new on in Wigner, Hungary. During the commissioning of this infrastructure, CERN IT is offering an attractive amount of computing resources to the experiments (800 cores for ATLAS and CMS) through a private cloud interface. ATLAS and CMS have joined forces to exploit them by running stress tests and simulation workloads since November 2012. This work will describe the experience of the first deployments of the current experiment workloads on the CERN private cloud testbed. The paper is organized as follows: the first section will explain the integration of the experiment workload management systems (WMS) with the cloud resources. The second section will revisit the performance and stress testing performed with HammerCloud in order to evaluate and compare the suitability for the experiment workloads. The third section will go deeper into the dynamic provisioning techniques, such as the use of the cloud APIs directly by the WMS. The paper finishes with a review of the conclusions and the challenges ahead.

Overview of Shipboard Data Fusion and Resource Management R&D Results and Rationale for Its Real-Time Implementation in the ASCACT Testbed

DTIC Science & Technology

1996-04-01

and IRST sensor simulations. More specifically, the CPF radars currently supported by the CASE_ATTI sensor module are the SG-150 Sea Giraffe and the...specifications. The current A WW sensor suite of the CPF comprises the SPS-49 long range 2-D radar, the Sea Giraffe medium range 2-D radar, the CANEWS ESM...Sea Giraffe . This represents an original novelty of our simulation environment. P435278.PDF [Page: 66 of 128] UNCLASSIFIED 50 The baseline

Can marine protected areas enhance both economic and biological situations?

PubMed

Ami, Dominique; Cartigny, Pierre; Rapaport, Alain

2005-04-01

This paper investigates impacts of the creation of Marine Protected Areas (MPAs), in both economic and biological perspectives. The economic indicator is defined as the sum of discounted benefits derived from exploitation of the resource in the fishery sector, assumed to be optimally managed. The biological indicator is taken as the stock density of the resource. The basic fishery model (C.W. Clark, Mathematical Bioeconomics: The Optimal Management of Renewable Resources, second ed., John Wiley and Sons, New York, 1990) will serve as a convenient benchmark in comparing results with those that are derived from a model of two patchy populations (cf. R. Hannesson, Marine reserves: what would they accomplish, Mar. Resour. Econ. 13 (1998) 159). In the latter, a crucial characteristic is the migration coefficient with describes biological linkages between protected and unprotected areas. A set of situations where both economic and biological criteria are enhanced, after introducing a MPA, is presented. These results are obtained with the help of numerical simulations.

Simulation model for assessing the efficiency of a combined power installation based on a geothermal heat pump and a vacuum solar collector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vaysman, Ya I.; Surkov, AA; Surkova, Yu I.; Kychkin, AV

2017-06-01

The article is devoted to the use of renewable energy sources and the assessment of the feasibility of their use in the climatic conditions of the Western Urals. A simulation model that calculates the efficiency of a combined power installations (CPI) was (RES) developed. The CPI consists of the geothermal heat pump (GHP) and the vacuum solar collector (VCS) and is based on the research model. This model allows solving a wide range of problems in the field of energy and resource efficiency, and can be applied to other objects using RES. Based on the research recommendations for optimizing the management and the application of CPI were given. The optimization system will give a positive effect in the energy and resource consumption of low-rise residential buildings projects.

Simulation of ground-water flow in the Vevay Township area, Ingham County, Michigan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Luukkonen, Carol L.; Simard, Andreanne

2004-01-01

Ground water is the primary source of water for domestic, public-supply, and industrial use within the Tri-County region that includes Clinton, Eaton, and Ingham Counties in Michigan. Because of the importance of this ground-water resource, numerous communities, including the city of Mason in Ingham County, have begun local Wellhead Protection Programs. In these programs, communities protect their groundwater resource by identifying the areas that contribute water to production wells and potential sources of contamination, and by developing methods to manage and minimize threats to the water supply. In addition, some communities in Michigan are concerned about water availability, particularly in areas experiencing water-level declines in the vicinity of quarry dewatering operations. In areas where Wellhead Protection Programs are implemented and there are potential threats to the water supply, residents and communities need adequate information to protect the water supply.In 1996, a regional ground-water-flow model was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey to simulate ground-water flow in Clinton, Eaton, and Ingham Counties. This model was developed primarily to simulate the bedrock ground-waterflow system; ground-water flow in the unconsolidated glacial sediments was simulated to support analysis of flow in the underlying bedrock Saginaw aquifer. Since its development in 1996, regional model simulations have been conducted to address protection concerns and water availability questions of local water-resources managers. As a result of these continuing model simulations, additional hydrogeologic data have been acquired in the Tri-County region that has improved the characterization of the simulated ground-water-flow system and improved the model calibration. A major benefit of these updates and refinements is that the regional Tri-County model continues to be a useful tool that improves the understanding of the ground-water-flow system in the Tri-County region, provides local water-resources managers with a means to answer ground-water protection and availability questions, and serves as an example that can be applied in other areas of the state.A refined version of the 1996 Tri-County regional ground-water-flow model, developed in 1997, was modified with local hydrogeologic information in the Vevay Township area in Michigan. This model, updated in 2003 for this study, was used to simulate ground-water flow to address groundwater protection and availability questions in Vevay Township. The 2003 model included refinement of glacial and bedrock hydraulic characteristics, better representation of the degree of connection between the glacial deposits and the underlying Saginaw aquifer, and refinement of the model cell size.The 2003 model was used to simulate regional groundwater flow, to delineate areas contributing recharge and zones of contribution to production wells in the city of Mason, and to simulate the effects of present and possible future withdrawals. The areal extent of the 10- and 40-year areas contributing recharge and the zones of contribution for the city of Mason's production wells encompass about 2.3 and 6.2 square miles, respectively. Simulation results, where withdrawals for quarry operations were represented by one well pumping at 1.6 million gallons per day, indicate that water levels would decline slightly over 1 foot approximately 2 miles from the quarry in the glacial deposits and in the Saginaw aquifer. With a reduction of the local riverbed conductance or removal of local river model cells representing Mud Creek, water-level declines would extend further west of Mud Creek and further to the north, east, and south of the simulated quarry. Simulation results indicate that water withdrawn for quarry dewatering operations would decrease ground-water recharge to nearby Mud Creek, would increase ground-water discharge from Mud Creek, and that local water levels would be lowered as a result.

FLBEIA : A simulation model to conduct Bio-Economic evaluation of fisheries management strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia, Dorleta; Sánchez, Sonia; Prellezo, Raúl; Urtizberea, Agurtzane; Andrés, Marga

Fishery systems are complex systems that need to be managed in order to ensure a sustainable and efficient exploitation of marine resources. Traditionally, fisheries management has relied on biological models. However, in recent years the focus on mathematical models which incorporate economic and social aspects has increased. Here, we present FLBEIA, a flexible software to conduct bio-economic evaluation of fisheries management strategies. The model is multi-stock, multi-fleet, stochastic and seasonal. The fishery system is described as a sum of processes, which are internally assembled in a predetermined way. There are several functions available to describe the dynamic of each process and new functions can be added to satisfy specific requirements.

Simulation supported scenario analysis for water resources planning: a case study in northern italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Facchi, A.; Gandolfi, C.; Ortuani, B.; Maggi, D.

2003-04-01

The work presents the results of a comprehensive modelling study of surface and groundwater systems, including the interaction between irrigation and groundwater resources, for the Muzza-Bassa Lodigiana irrigation district, placed in the southern part of the densely-settled Lombardia plain (northern Italy). The area, of approximately 700 km2, has been selected as: a) it is representative of agricultural and irrigation practices in a wide portion of the plain of Lombardia; b) it has well defined hydrogeological borders, represented by the Adda, Po, and Lambro rivers (respectively East, South and West) and by the Muzza canal (North). The objective of the study is to assess the impact of land use and irrigation water availability on the distribution of crop water consumption in space and time, as well as on the groundwater resources in this wide portion of the Lombardia plain. To achieve this goal, a number of realistic management scenarios, currently under discussion with the regional water authority, have been taken into account. A standard 'base case' has been defined to allow comparative analysis of the results of different scenarios. To carry out the research, an integrated, distributed, catchment-scale simulation package, already developed and applied to the study area, has been used. The simulation system is based on the integration of two hydrological models - a conceptual vadose zone model and the groundwater model MODFLOW. An interface performs the explicit coupling in space and time between the two models. A GIS manages all the information relevant to the study area, as well as all the input, the spatially distributed parameters and the output of the system. The simulation package has been verified for the years 1999-2000 using land use derived from remote-sensed images, reported water availability for irrigation, observed water stage in rivers as well as groundwater level in the alluvial aquifer system.

Improving hospital bed occupancy and resource utilization through queuing modeling and evolutionary computation.

PubMed

Belciug, Smaranda; Gorunescu, Florin

2015-02-01

Scarce healthcare resources require carefully made policies ensuring optimal bed allocation, quality healthcare service, and adequate financial support. This paper proposes a complex analysis of the resource allocation in a hospital department by integrating in the same framework a queuing system, a compartmental model, and an evolutionary-based optimization. The queuing system shapes the flow of patients through the hospital, the compartmental model offers a feasible structure of the hospital department in accordance to the queuing characteristics, and the evolutionary paradigm provides the means to optimize the bed-occupancy management and the resource utilization using a genetic algorithm approach. The paper also focuses on a "What-if analysis" providing a flexible tool to explore the effects on the outcomes of the queuing system and resource utilization through systematic changes in the input parameters. The methodology was illustrated using a simulation based on real data collected from a geriatric department of a hospital from London, UK. In addition, the paper explores the possibility of adapting the methodology to different medical departments (surgery, stroke, and mental illness). Moreover, the paper also focuses on the practical use of the model from the healthcare point of view, by presenting a simulated application. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Using open source software for the supervision and management of the water resources system of Athens

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kozanis, S.; Christofides, A.; Efstratiadis, A.; Koukouvinos, A.; Karavokiros, G.; Mamassis, N.; Koutsoyiannis, D.; Nikolopoulos, D.

2012-04-01

The water supply of Athens, Greece, is implemented through a complex water resource system, extending over an area of around 4 000 km2 and including surface water and groundwater resources. It incorporates four reservoirs, 350 km of main aqueducts, 15 pumping stations, more than 100 boreholes and 5 small hydropower plants. The system is run by the Athens Water Supply and Sewerage Company (EYDAP) Over more than 10 years we have developed, information technology tools such as GIS, database and decision support systems, to assist the management of the system. Among the software components, "Enhydris", a web application for the visualization and management of geographical and hydrometeorological data, and "Hydrognomon", a data analysis and processing tool, are now free software. Enhydris is entirely based on free software technologies such as Python, Django, PostgreSQL, and JQuery. We also created http://openmeteo.org/, a web site hosting our free software products as well as a free database system devoted to the dissemination of free data. In particular, "Enhydris" is used for the management of the hydrometeorological stations and the major hydraulic structures (aqueducts, reservoirs, boreholes, etc.), as well as for the retrieval of time series, online graphs etc. For the specific needs of EYDAP, additional GIS functionality was introduced for the display and monitoring of the water supply network. This functionality is also implemented as free software and can be reused in similar projects. Except for "Hydrognomon" and "Enhydris", we have developed a number of advanced modeling applications, which are also generic-purpose tools that have been used for a long time to provide decision support for the water resource system of Athens. These are "Hydronomeas", which optimizes the operation of complex water resource systems, based on a stochastic simulation framework, "Castalia", which implements the generation of synthetic time series, and "Hydrogeios", which employs conjunctive hydrological and hydrogeological simulation, with emphasis to human-modified river basins. These tools are currently available as executable files that are free for download though the ITIA web site (http://itia.ntua.gr/). Currently, we are working towards releasing their source code as well, through making them free software, after some licensing issues are resolved.

A Satellite Data-Driven, Client-Server Decision Support Application for Agricultural Water Resources Management

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, Lee F.; Maneta, Marco P.; Kimball, John S.

2016-01-01

Water cycle extremes such as droughts and floods present a challenge for water managers and for policy makers responsible for the administration of water supplies in agricultural regions. In addition to the inherent uncertainties associated with forecasting extreme weather events, water planners need to anticipate water demands and water user behavior in a typical circumstances. This requires the use decision support systems capable of simulating agricultural water demand with the latest available data. Unfortunately, managers from local and regional agencies often use different datasets of variable quality, which complicates coordinated action. In previous work we have demonstrated novel methodologies to use satellite-based observational technologies, in conjunction with hydro-economic models and state of the art data assimilation methods, to enable robust regional assessment and prediction of drought impacts on agricultural production, water resources, and land allocation. These methods create an opportunity for new, cost-effective analysis tools to support policy and decision-making over large spatial extents. The methods can be driven with information from existing satellite-derived operational products, such as the Satellite Irrigation Management Support system (SIMS) operational over California, the Cropland Data Layer (CDL), and using a modified light-use efficiency algorithm to retrieve crop yield from the synergistic use of MODIS and Landsat imagery. Here we present an integration of this modeling framework in a client-server architecture based on the Hydra platform. Assimilation and processing of resource intensive remote sensing data, as well as hydrologic and other ancillary information occur on the server side. This information is processed and summarized as attributes in water demand nodes that are part of a vector description of the water distribution network. With this architecture, our decision support system becomes a light weight 'app' that connects to the server to retrieve the latest information regarding water demands, land use, yields and hydrologic information required to run different management scenarios. Furthermore, this architecture ensures all agencies and teams involved in water management use the same, up-to-date information in their simulations.

A satellite data-driven, client-server decision support application for agricultural water resources management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maneta, M. P.; Johnson, L.; Kimball, J. S.

2016-12-01

Water cycle extremes such as droughts and floods present a challenge for water managers and for policy makers responsible for the administration of water supplies in agricultural regions. In addition to the inherent uncertainties associated with forecasting extreme weather events, water planners need to anticipate water demands and water user behavior in atypical circumstances. This requires the use decision support systems capable of simulating agricultural water demand with the latest available data. Unfortunately, managers from local and regional agencies often use different datasets of variable quality, which complicates coordinated action. In previous work we have demonstrated novel methodologies to use satellite-based observational technologies, in conjunction with hydro-economic models and state of the art data assimilation methods, to enable robust regional assessment and prediction of drought impacts on agricultural production, water resources, and land allocation. These methods create an opportunity for new, cost-effective analysis tools to support policy and decision-making over large spatial extents. The methods can be driven with information from existing satellite-derived operational products, such as the Satellite Irrigation Management Support system (SIMS) operational over California, the Cropland Data Layer (CDL), and using a modified light-use efficiency algorithm to retrieve crop yield from the synergistic use of MODIS and Landsat imagery. Here we present an integration of this modeling framework in a client-server architecture based on the Hydra platform. Assimilation and processing of resource intensive remote sensing data, as well as hydrologic and other ancillary information occur on the server side. This information is processed and summarized as attributes in water demand nodes that are part of a vector description of the water distribution network. With this architecture, our decision support system becomes a light weight `app` that connects to the server to retrieve the latest information regarding water demands, land use, yields and hydrologic information required to run different management scenarios. Furthermore, this architecture ensures all agencies and teams involved in water management use the same, up-to-date information in their simulations.

Spatial demographic models to inform conservation planning of golden eagles in renewable energy landscapes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wiens, J. David; Schumaker, Nathan H.; Inman, Richard D.; Esque, Todd C.; Longshore, Kathleen M.; Nussear, Kenneth E

2017-01-01

Spatial demographic models can help guide monitoring and management activities targeting at-risk species, even in cases where baseline data are lacking. Here, we provide an example of how site-specific changes in land use and anthropogenic stressors can be incorporated into a spatial demographic model to investigate effects on population dynamics of Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos). Our study focused on a population of Golden Eagles exposed to risks associated with rapid increases in renewable energy development in southern California, U.S.A. We developed a spatially explicit, individual-based simulation model that integrated empirical data on demography of Golden Eagles with spatial data on the arrangement of nesting habitats, prey resources, and planned renewable energy development sites. Our model permitted simulated eagles of different stage-classes to disperse, establish home ranges, acquire prey resources, prospect for breeding sites, and reproduce. The distribution of nesting habitats, prey resources, and threats within each individual's home range influenced movement, reproduction, and survival. We used our model to explore potential effects of alternative disturbance scenarios, and proposed conservation strategies, on the future distribution and abundance of Golden Eagles in the study region. Results from our simulations suggest that probable increases in mortality associated with renewable energy infrastructure (e.g., collisions with wind turbines and vehicles, electrocution on power poles) could have negative consequences for population trajectories, but that site-specific conservation actions could reduce the magnitude of negative effects. Our study demonstrates the use of a flexible and expandable modeling framework to incorporate spatially dependent processes when determining relative effects of proposed management options to Golden Eagles and their habitats.

Comparison of Lumped and Distributed Hydrologic Models Used for Planning and Water Resources Management at the Combeima River Basin, Colombia.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salgado, F., II; Vélez, J.

2014-12-01

The catchment area is considered as the planning unit of natural resources where multiple factors as biotic, abiotic and human interact in a web of relationships making this unit a complex system. It is also considered by several authors as the most suitable unit for studying the water movement in nature and a tool for the understanding of natural processes. This research implements several hydrological models commonly used in water resources management and planning. It is the case of Témez, abcd, T, P, ARMA (1,1), and the lumped conceptual model TETIS. This latest model has been implemented in its distributed version for comparison purposes and it has been the basis for obtaining information, either through the reconstruction of natural flow series, filling missing data, forecasting or simulation. Hydrological models make use of lumped data of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, as well as the following parameters for each one of the models which are related to soil properties as capillary storage capacity; the hydraulic saturated conductivity of the upper and lower layers of the soil, and residence times in the flow surface, subsurface layers and base flow. The calibration and the validation process of the models were performed making adjustments to the parameters listed above, taking into account the consistency in the efficiency indexes and the adjustment between the observed and simulated flows using the flow duration curve. The Nash index gave good results for the TETIS model and acceptable values were obtained to the other models. The calibration of the distributed model was complex and its results were similar to those obtained with the aggregated model. This comparison allows planners to use the hydrological multimodel techniques to reduce the uncertainty associated with planning processes in developing countries. Moreover, taking into account the information limitations required to implement a hydrological models, this application can be a good approach to water resources management. This project can be an important tool for decision making of different actors, such as local government, environmental agencies (CORTOLIMA), risk management office. Finally, the establishment of an improved network of hydro-meteorological stations that allow acquiring a better quality information.

Dynamic provisioning of local and remote compute resources with OpenStack

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giffels, M.; Hauth, T.; Polgart, F.; Quast, G.

2015-12-01

Modern high-energy physics experiments rely on the extensive usage of computing resources, both for the reconstruction of measured events as well as for Monte-Carlo simulation. The Institut fur Experimentelle Kernphysik (EKP) at KIT is participating in both the CMS and Belle experiments with computing and storage resources. In the upcoming years, these requirements are expected to increase due to growing amount of recorded data and the rise in complexity of the simulated events. It is therefore essential to increase the available computing capabilities by tapping into all resource pools. At the EKP institute, powerful desktop machines are available to users. Due to the multi-core nature of modern CPUs, vast amounts of CPU time are not utilized by common desktop usage patterns. Other important providers of compute capabilities are classical HPC data centers at universities or national research centers. Due to the shared nature of these installations, the standardized software stack required by HEP applications cannot be installed. A viable way to overcome this constraint and offer a standardized software environment in a transparent manner is the usage of virtualization technologies. The OpenStack project has become a widely adopted solution to virtualize hardware and offer additional services like storage and virtual machine management. This contribution will report on the incorporation of the institute's desktop machines into a private OpenStack Cloud. The additional compute resources provisioned via the virtual machines have been used for Monte-Carlo simulation and data analysis. Furthermore, a concept to integrate shared, remote HPC centers into regular HEP job workflows will be presented. In this approach, local and remote resources are merged to form a uniform, virtual compute cluster with a single point-of-entry for the user. Evaluations of the performance and stability of this setup and operational experiences will be discussed.

Positive impact of crisis resource management training on no-flow time and team member verbalisations during simulated cardiopulmonary resuscitation: a randomised controlled trial.

PubMed

Fernandez Castelao, Ezequiel; Russo, Sebastian G; Cremer, Stephan; Strack, Micha; Kaminski, Lea; Eich, Christoph; Timmermann, Arnd; Boos, Margarete

2011-10-01

To evaluate the impact of video-based interactive crisis resource management (CRM) training on no-flow time (NFT) and on proportions of team member verbalisations (TMV) during simulated cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR). Further, to investigate the link between team leader verbalisation accuracy and NFT. The randomised controlled study was embedded in the obligatory advanced life support (ALS) course for final-year medical students. Students (176; 25.35±1.03 years, 63% female) were alphabetically assigned to 44 four-person teams that were then randomly (computer-generated) assigned to either CRM intervention (n=26), receiving interactive video-based CRM-training, or to control intervention (n=18), receiving an additional ALS-training. Primary outcomes were NFT and proportions of TMV, which were subdivided into eight categories: four team leader verbalisations (TLV) with different accuracy levels and four follower verbalisation categories (FV). Measurements were made of all groups administering simulated adult CPR. NFT rates were significantly lower in the CRM-training group (31.4±6.1% vs. 36.3±6.6%, p=0.014). Proportions of all TLV categories were higher in the CRM-training group (p<0.001). Differences in FV were only found for one category (unsolicited information) (p=0.012). The highest correlation with NFT was found for high accuracy TLV (direct orders) (p=0.06). The inclusion of CRM training in undergraduate medical education reduces NFT in simulated CPR and improves TLV proportions during simulated CPR. Further research will test how these results translate into clinical performance and patient outcome. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Designing hydrologic monitoring networks to maximize predictability of hydrologic conditions in a data assimilation system: a case study from South Florida, U.S.A

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flores, A. N.; Pathak, C. S.; Senarath, S. U.; Bras, R. L.

2009-12-01

Robust hydrologic monitoring networks represent a critical element of decision support systems for effective water resource planning and management. Moreover, process representation within hydrologic simulation models is steadily improving, while at the same time computational costs are decreasing due to, for instance, readily available high performance computing resources. The ability to leverage these increasingly complex models together with the data from these monitoring networks to provide accurate and timely estimates of relevant hydrologic variables within a multiple-use, managed water resources system would substantially enhance the information available to resource decision makers. Numerical data assimilation techniques provide mathematical frameworks through which uncertain model predictions can be constrained to observational data to compensate for uncertainties in the model forcings and parameters. In ensemble-based data assimilation techniques such as the ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF), information in observed variables such as canal, marsh and groundwater stages are propagated back to the model states in a manner related to: (1) the degree of certainty in the model state estimates and observations, and (2) the cross-correlation between the model states and the observable outputs of the model. However, the ultimate degree to which hydrologic conditions can be accurately predicted in an area of interest is controlled, in part, by the configuration of the monitoring network itself. In this proof-of-concept study we developed an approach by which the design of an existing hydrologic monitoring network is adapted to iteratively improve the predictions of hydrologic conditions within an area of the South Florida Water Management District (SFWMD). The objective of the network design is to minimize prediction errors of key hydrologic states and fluxes produced by the spatially distributed Regional Simulation Model (RSM), developed specifically to simulate the hydrologic conditions in several intensively managed and hydrologically complex watersheds within the SFWMD system. In a series of synthetic experiments RSM is used to generate the notionally true hydrologic state and the relevant observational data. The EnKF is then used as the mechanism to fuse RSM hydrologic estimates with data from the candidate network. The performance of the candidate network is measured by the prediction errors of the EnKF estimates of hydrologic states, relative to the notionally true scenario. The candidate network is then adapted by relocating existing observational sites to unobserved areas where predictions of local hydrologic conditions are most uncertain and the EnKF procedure repeated. Iteration of the monitoring network continues until further improvements in EnKF-based predictions of hydrologic conditions are negligible.

Evaluating the Relevance, Reliability, and Applicability of CMIP5 Climate Projections for Water Resources and Environmental Planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brekke, L. D.; Scott, J.; Ferguson, I. M.; Arnold, J.; Raff, D. A.; Webb, R. S.

2012-12-01

Water managers need to understand the applicability of climate projection information available for decision-support at the scale of their applications. Applicability depends on information reliability and relevance. This need to understand applicability stems from expectations that entities rationalize adaptation investments or decisions to delay investment. It is also occurring at a time when new global climate projections are being released through the World Climate Research Programme Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), which introduces new information opportunities and interpretation challenges. This project involves an interagency collaboration to evaluate the applicability of CMIP5 projections for use in water and environmental resources planning. The overarching goal is to develop and demonstrate a framework that involves dual evaluations of relevance and reliability informing an ultimate discussion and judgment of applicability, which is expected to vary with decision-making context. The framework is being developed and demonstrated within the context of reservoir systems management in California's Sacramento and San Joaquin River basins. The relevance evaluation focuses on identifying the climate variables and statistical measures relevant to long-term management questions, which may depend on satisfying multiple objectives. Past studies' results are being considered in this evaluation, along with new results from system sensitivity analyses conducted through this effort. The reliability evaluation focuses on the CMIP5 climate models' ability to simulate past conditions relative to observed references. The evaluation is being conducted across the global domain using a large menu of climate variables and statistical measures, leveraging lessons learned from similar evaluations of CMIP3 climate models. The global focus addresses a broader project goal of producing a web resource that can serve reliability information to applicability discussions around the world, with evaluation results being served through a web-portal similar to that developed by NOAA/CIRES to serve CMIP3 information on future climate extremes (http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/ipcc/extremes/). The framework concludes with an applicability discussion informed by relevance and reliability results. The goal is to observe the discussion process and identify features, choice points, and challenges that might be summarized and shared with other resource management groups facing applicability questions. This presentation will discuss the project framework and preliminary results. In addition to considering CMIP5 21st century projection information, the framework is being developed to support evaluation of CMIP5 decadal predictability experiment simulations and reconcile those simulations with 21st century projections. The presentation will also discuss implications of considering the applicability of bias-corrected and downscaled information within this framework.

Water shortage risk assessment considering large-scale regional transfers: a copula-based uncertainty case study in Lunan, China.

PubMed

Gao, Xueping; Liu, Yinzhu; Sun, Bowen

2018-06-05

The risk of water shortage caused by uncertainties, such as frequent drought, varied precipitation, multiple water resources, and different water demands, brings new challenges to the water transfer projects. Uncertainties exist for transferring water and local surface water; therefore, the relationship between them should be thoroughly studied to prevent water shortage. For more effective water management, an uncertainty-based water shortage risk assessment model (UWSRAM) is developed to study the combined effect of multiple water resources and analyze the shortage degree under uncertainty. The UWSRAM combines copula-based Monte Carlo stochastic simulation and the chance-constrained programming-stochastic multiobjective optimization model, using the Lunan water-receiving area in China as an example. Statistical copula functions are employed to estimate the joint probability of available transferring water and local surface water and sampling from the multivariate probability distribution, which are used as inputs for the optimization model. The approach reveals the distribution of water shortage and is able to emphasize the importance of improving and updating transferring water and local surface water management, and examine their combined influence on water shortage risk assessment. The possible available water and shortages can be calculated applying the UWSRAM, also with the corresponding allocation measures under different water availability levels and violating probabilities. The UWSRAM is valuable for mastering the overall multi-water resource and water shortage degree, adapting to the uncertainty surrounding water resources, establishing effective water resource planning policies for managers and achieving sustainable development.

Taxonomy for Modeling Demand Response Resources

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Olsen, Daniel; Kiliccote, Sila; Sohn, Michael

2014-08-01

Demand response resources are an important component of modern grid management strategies. Accurate characterizations of DR resources are needed to develop systems of optimally managed grid operations and to plan future investments in generation, transmission, and distribution. The DOE Demand Response and Energy Storage Integration Study (DRESIS) project researched the degree to which demand response (DR) and energy storage can provide grid flexibility and stability in the Western Interconnection. In this work, DR resources were integrated with traditional generators in grid forecasting tools, specifically a production cost model of the Western Interconnection. As part of this study, LBNL developed amore » modeling framework for characterizing resource availability and response attributes of DR resources consistent with the governing architecture of the simulation modeling platform. In this report, we identify and describe the following response attributes required to accurately characterize DR resources: allowable response frequency, maximum response duration, minimum time needed to achieve load changes, necessary pre- or re-charging of integrated energy storage, costs of enablement, magnitude of controlled resources, and alignment of availability. We describe a framework for modeling these response attributes, and apply this framework to characterize 13 DR resources including residential, commercial, and industrial end-uses. We group these end-uses into three broad categories based on their response capabilities, and define a taxonomy for classifying DR resources within these categories. The three categories of resources exhibit different capabilities and differ in value to the grid. Results from the production cost model of the Western Interconnection illustrate that minor differences in resource attributes can have significant impact on grid utilization of DR resources. The implications of these findings will be explored in future DR valuation studies.« less

What We Did Last Summer: Depicting DES Data to Enhance Simulation Utility and Use

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Elfrey, Priscilla; Conroy, Mike; Lagares, Jose G.; Mann, David; Fahmi, Mona

2009-01-01

At Kennedy Space Center (KSC), an important use of Discrete Event Simulation (DES) addresses ground operations .of missions to space. DES allows managers, scientists and engineers to assess the number of missions KSC can complete on a given schedule within different facilities, the effects of various configurations of resources and detect possible problems or unwanted situations. For fifteen years, DES has supported KSC efficiency, cost savings and improved safety and performance. The dense and abstract DES data, however, proves difficult to comprehend and, NASA managers realized, is subject to misinterpretation, misunderstanding and even, misuse. In summer 2008, KSC developed and implemented a NASA Exploration Systems Mission Directorate (ESMD) project based on the premise that visualization could enhance NASA's understanding and use of DES.

Team Performance and Error Management in Chinese and American Simulated Flight Crews: The Role of Cultural and Individual Differences

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davis, Donald D.; Bryant, Janet L.; Tedrow, Lara; Liu, Ying; Selgrade, Katherine A.; Downey, Heather J.

2005-01-01

This report describes results of a study conducted for NASA-Langley Research Center. This study is part of a program of research conducted for NASA-LARC that has focused on identifying the influence of national culture on the performance of flight crews. We first reviewed the literature devoted to models of teamwork and team performance, crew resource management, error management, and cross-cultural psychology. Davis (1999) reported the results of this review and presented a model that depicted how national culture could influence teamwork and performance in flight crews. The second study in this research program examined accident investigations of foreign airlines in the United States conducted by the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB). The ability of cross-cultural values to explain national differences in flight outcomes was examined. Cultural values were found to covary in a predicted way with national differences, but the absence of necessary data in the NTSB reports and limitations in the research method that was used prevented a clear understanding of the causal impact of cultural values. Moreover, individual differences such as personality traits were not examined in this study. Davis and Kuang (2001) report results of this second study. The research summarized in the current report extends this previous research by directly assessing cultural and individual differences among students from the United States and China who were trained to fly in a flight simulator using desktop computer workstations. The research design used in this study allowed delineation of the impact of national origin, cultural values, personality traits, cognitive style, shared mental model, and task workload on teamwork, error management and flight outcomes. We briefly review the literature that documents the importance of teamwork and error management and its impact on flight crew performance. We next examine teamwork and crew resource management training designed to improve teamwork. This is followed by discussion of the potential influence of national culture on teamwork and crew resource management. We then examine the influence of other individual and team differences, such as personality traits, cognitive style, shared mental model, and task workload. We provide a heuristic model that depicts the influence of national culture and individual differences on teamwork, error management and flight outcomes. The results demonstrate the usefulness of the model for future research.

Clean and Secure Energy from Domestic Oil Shale and Oil Sands Resources

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Spinti, Jennifer; Birgenheier, Lauren; Deo, Milind

This report summarizes the significant findings from the Clean and Secure Energy from Domestic Oil Shale and Oil Sands Resources program sponsored by the Department of Energy through the National Energy Technology Laboratory. There were four principle areas of research; Environmental, legal, and policy issues related to development of oil shale and oil sands resources; Economic and environmental assessment of domestic unconventional fuels industry; Basin-scale assessment of conventional and unconventional fuel development impacts; and Liquid fuel production by in situ thermal processing of oil shale Multiple research projects were conducted in each area and the results have been communicated viamore » sponsored conferences, conference presentations, invited talks, interviews with the media, numerous topical reports, journal publications, and a book that summarizes much of the oil shale research relating to Utah’s Uinta Basin. In addition, a repository of materials related to oil shale and oil sands has been created within the University of Utah’s Institutional Repository, including the materials generated during this research program. Below is a listing of all topical and progress reports generated by this project and submitted to the Office of Science and Technical Information (OSTI). A listing of all peer-reviewed publications generated as a result of this project is included at the end of this report; Geomechanical and Fluid Transport Properties 1 (December, 2015); Validation Results for Core-Scale Oil Shale Pyrolysis (February, 2015); and Rates and Mechanisms of Oil Shale Pyrolysis: A Chemical Structure Approach (November, 2014); Policy Issues Associated With Using Simulation to Assess Environmental Impacts (November, 2014); Policy Analysis of the Canadian Oil Sands Experience (September, 2013); V-UQ of Generation 1 Simulator with AMSO Experimental Data (August, 2013); Lands with Wilderness Characteristics, Resource Management Plan Constraints, and Land Exchanges (March, 2012); Conjunctive Surface and Groundwater Management in Utah: Implications for Oil Shale and Oil Sands Development (May, 2012); Development of CFD-Based Simulation Tools for In Situ Thermal Processing of Oil Shale/Sands (February, 2012); Core-Based Integrated Sedimentologic, Stratigraphic, and Geochemical Analysis of the Oil Shale Bearing Green River Formation, Uinta Basin, Utah (April, 2011); Atomistic Modeling of Oil Shale Kerogens and Asphaltenes Along with their Interactions with the Inorganic Mineral Matrix (April, 2011); Pore Scale Analysis of Oil Shale/Sands Pyrolysis (March, 2011); Land and Resource Management Issues Relevant to Deploying In-Situ Thermal Technologies (January, 2011); Policy Analysis of Produced Water Issues Associated with In-Situ Thermal Technologies (January, 2011); and Policy Analysis of Water Availability and Use Issues for Domestic Oil Shale and Oil Sands Development (March, 2010)« less

Agent-Based Modelling of Agricultural Water Abstraction in Response to Climate, Policy, and Demand Changes: Results from East Anglia, UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swinscoe, T. H. A.; Knoeri, C.; Fleskens, L.; Barrett, J.

2014-12-01

Freshwater is a vital natural resource for multiple needs, such as drinking water for the public, industrial processes, hydropower for energy companies, and irrigation for agriculture. In the UK, crop production is the largest in East Anglia, while at the same time the region is also the driest, with average annual rainfall between 560 and 720 mm (1971 to 2000). Many water catchments of East Anglia are reported as over licensed or over abstracted. Therefore, freshwater available for agricultural irrigation abstraction in this region is becoming both increasingly scarce due to competing demands, and increasingly variable and uncertain due to climate and policy changes. It is vital for water users and policy makers to understand how these factors will affect individual abstractors and water resource management at the system level. We present first results of an Agent-based Model that captures the complexity of this system as individual abstractors interact, learn and adapt to these internal and external changes. The purpose of this model is to simulate what patterns of water resource management emerge on the system level based on local interactions, adaptations and behaviours, and what policies lead to a sustainable water resource management system. The model is based on an irrigation abstractor typology derived from a survey in the study area, to capture individual behavioural intentions under a range of water availability scenarios, in addition to farm attributes, and demographics. Regional climate change scenarios, current and new abstraction licence reforms by the UK regulator, such as water trading and water shares, and estimated demand increases from other sectors were used as additional input data. Findings from the integrated model provide new understanding of the patterns of water resource management likely to emerge at the system level.

Modelling and performance analysis of clinical pathways using the stochastic process algebra PEPA.

PubMed

Yang, Xian; Han, Rui; Guo, Yike; Bradley, Jeremy; Cox, Benita; Dickinson, Robert; Kitney, Richard

2012-01-01

Hospitals nowadays have to serve numerous patients with limited medical staff and equipment while maintaining healthcare quality. Clinical pathway informatics is regarded as an efficient way to solve a series of hospital challenges. To date, conventional research lacks a mathematical model to describe clinical pathways. Existing vague descriptions cannot fully capture the complexities accurately in clinical pathways and hinders the effective management and further optimization of clinical pathways. Given this motivation, this paper presents a clinical pathway management platform, the Imperial Clinical Pathway Analyzer (ICPA). By extending the stochastic model performance evaluation process algebra (PEPA), ICPA introduces a clinical-pathway-specific model: clinical pathway PEPA (CPP). ICPA can simulate stochastic behaviours of a clinical pathway by extracting information from public clinical databases and other related documents using CPP. Thus, the performance of this clinical pathway, including its throughput, resource utilisation and passage time can be quantitatively analysed. A typical clinical pathway on stroke extracted from a UK hospital is used to illustrate the effectiveness of ICPA. Three application scenarios are tested using ICPA: 1) redundant resources are identified and removed, thus the number of patients being served is maintained with less cost; 2) the patient passage time is estimated, providing the likelihood that patients can leave hospital within a specific period; 3) the maximum number of input patients are found, helping hospitals to decide whether they can serve more patients with the existing resource allocation. ICPA is an effective platform for clinical pathway management: 1) ICPA can describe a variety of components (state, activity, resource and constraints) in a clinical pathway, thus facilitating the proper understanding of complexities involved in it; 2) ICPA supports the performance analysis of clinical pathway, thereby assisting hospitals to effectively manage time and resources in clinical pathway.

Integrated Water Resources Planning and Management in Arid/Semi-arid Regions: Data, Modeling, and Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gupta, H.; Liu, Y.; Wagener, T.; Durcik, M.; Duffy, C.; Springer, E.

2005-12-01

Water resources in arid and semi-arid regions are highly sensitive to climate variability and change. As the demand for water continues to increase due to economic and population growth, planning and management of available water resources under climate uncertainties becomes increasingly critical in order to achieve basin-scale water sustainability (i.e., to ensure a long-term balance between supply and demand of water).The tremendous complexity of the interactions between the natural hydrologic system and the human environment means that modeling is the only available mechanism for properly integrating new knowledge into the decision-making process. Basin-scale integrated models have the potential to allow us to study the feedback processes between the physical and human systems (including institutional, engineering, and behavioral components); and an integrated assessment of the potential second- and higher-order effects of political and management decisions can aid in the selection of a rational water-resources policy. Data and information, especially hydrological and water-use data, are critical to the integrated modeling and assessment for water resources management of any region. To this end we are in the process of developing a multi-resolution integrated modeling and assessment framework for the south-western USA, which can be used to generate simulations of the probable effects of human actions while taking into account the uncertainties brought about by future climatic variability and change. Data are being collected (including the development of a hydro-geospatial database) and used in support of the modeling and assessment activities. This paper will present a blueprint of the modeling framework, describe achievements so far and discuss the science questions which still require answers with a particular emphasis on issues related to dry regions.

A comprehensive surface-groundwater flow model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arnold, Jeffrey G.; Allen, Peter M.; Bernhardt, Gilbert

1993-02-01

In this study, a simple groundwater flow and height model was added to an existing basin-scale surface water model. The linked model is: (1) watershed scale, allowing the basin to be subdivided; (2) designed to accept readily available inputs to allow general use over large regions; (3) continuous in time to allow simulation of land management, including such factors as climate and vegetation changes, pond and reservoir management, groundwater withdrawals, and stream and reservoir withdrawals. The model is described, and is validated on a 471 km 2 watershed near Waco, Texas. This linked model should provide a comprehensive tool for water resource managers in development and planning.

Managed aquifer recharge through off-season irrigation in agricultural regions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Niswonger, Richard; Morway, Eric D.; Triana, Enrique; Huntington, Justin L.

2017-01-01

Options for increasing reservoir storage in developed regions are limited and prohibitively expensive. Projected increases in demand call for new long-term water storage to help sustain agriculture, municipalities, industry, and ecological services. Managed aquifer recharge (MAR) is becoming an integral component of water resources around the world. However, MAR faces challenges, including infrastructure costs, difficulty in enhancing recharge, water quality issues, and lack of available water supplies. Here we examine, through simulation modeling of a hypothetical agricultural subbasin in the western U.S., the potential of agricultural managed aquifer recharge (Ag-MAR) via canal seepage and off-season field irrigation. Weather phenomenon in many regions around the world exhibit decadal and other multiyear cycles of extreme precipitation. An ongoing challenge is to develop approaches to store greater amounts of water during these events. Simulations presented herein incorporate Ag-MAR programs and demonstrate that there is potential to enhance regional recharge by 7–13%, increase crop consumptive use by 9–12%, and increase natural vegetation consumption by 20–30%, where larger relative increases occur for lower aquifer hydraulic conductivity and higher specific yield values. Annual increases in groundwater levels were 7 m, and sustained levels following several years of drought were greater than 2 m. Results demonstrate that Ag-MAR has great potential to enhance long-term sustainability of water resources in agricultural basins.

Managed aquifer recharge through off-season irrigation in agricultural regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niswonger, Richard G.; Morway, Eric D.; Triana, Enrique; Huntington, Justin L.

2017-08-01

Options for increasing reservoir storage in developed regions are limited and prohibitively expensive. Projected increases in demand call for new long-term water storage to help sustain agriculture, municipalities, industry, and ecological services. Managed aquifer recharge (MAR) is becoming an integral component of water resources around the world. However, MAR faces challenges, including infrastructure costs, difficulty in enhancing recharge, water quality issues, and lack of available water supplies. Here we examine, through simulation modeling of a hypothetical agricultural subbasin in the western U.S., the potential of agricultural managed aquifer recharge (Ag-MAR) via canal seepage and off-season field irrigation. Weather phenomenon in many regions around the world exhibit decadal and other multiyear cycles of extreme precipitation. An ongoing challenge is to develop approaches to store greater amounts of water during these events. Simulations presented herein incorporate Ag-MAR programs and demonstrate that there is potential to enhance regional recharge by 7-13%, increase crop consumptive use by 9-12%, and increase natural vegetation consumption by 20-30%, where larger relative increases occur for lower aquifer hydraulic conductivity and higher specific yield values. Annual increases in groundwater levels were 7 m, and sustained levels following several years of drought were greater than 2 m. Results demonstrate that Ag-MAR has great potential to enhance long-term sustainability of water resources in agricultural basins.

Costs of detection bias in index-based population monitoring

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moore, C.T.; Kendall, W.L.

2004-01-01

Managers of wildlife populations commonly rely on indirect, count-based measures of the population in making decisions regarding conservation, harvest, or control. The main appeal in the use of such counts is their low material expense compared to methods that directly measure the population. However, their correct use rests on the rarely-tested but often-assumed premise that they proportionately reflect population size, i.e., that they constitute a population index. This study investigates forest management for the endangered Red-cockaded Woodpecker (Picoides borealis) and the Wood Thrush (Hylocichla mustelina) at the Piedmont National Wildlife Refuge in central Georgia, U.S.A. Optimal decision policies for a joint species objective were derived for two alternative models of Wood Thrush population dynamics. Policies were simulated under scenarios of unbiasedness, consistent negative bias, and habitat-dependent negative bias in observed Wood Thrush densities. Differences in simulation outcomes between biased and unbiased detection scenarios indicated the expected loss in resource objectives (here, forest habitat and birds) through decision-making based on biased population counts. Given the models and objective function used in our analysis, expected losses were as great as 11%, a degree of loss perhaps not trivial for applications such as endangered species management. Our analysis demonstrates that costs of uncertainty about the relationship between the population and its observation can be measured in units of the resource, costs which may offset apparent savings achieved by collecting uncorrected population counts.

The Modular Modeling System (MMS): A toolbox for water- and environmental-resources management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Leavesley, G.H.; Markstrom, S.L.; Viger, R.J.; Hay, L.E.; ,

2005-01-01

The increasing complexity of water- and environmental-resource problems require modeling approaches that incorporate knowledge from a broad range of scientific and software disciplines. To address this need, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has developed the Modular Modeling System (MMS). MMS is an integrated system of computer software for model development, integration, and application. Its modular design allows a high level of flexibility and adaptability to enable modelers to incorporate their own software into a rich array of built-in models and modeling tools. These include individual process models, tightly coupled models, loosely coupled models, and fully- integrated decision support systems. A geographic information system (GIS) interface, the USGS GIS Weasel, has been integrated with MMS to enable spatial delineation and characterization of basin and ecosystem features, and to provide objective parameter-estimation methods for models using available digital data. MMS provides optimization and sensitivity-analysis tools to analyze model parameters and evaluate the extent to which uncertainty in model parameters affects uncertainty in simulation results. MMS has been coupled with the Bureau of Reclamation object-oriented reservoir and river-system modeling framework, RiverWare, to develop models to evaluate and apply optimal resource-allocation and management strategies to complex, operational decisions on multipurpose reservoir systems and watersheds. This decision support system approach has been developed, tested, and implemented in the Gunnison, Yakima, San Joaquin, Rio Grande, and Truckee River basins of the western United States. MMS is currently being coupled with the U.S. Forest Service model SIMulating Patterns and Processes at Landscape Scales (SIMPPLLE) to assess the effects of alternative vegetation-management strategies on a variety of hydrological and ecological responses. Initial development and testing of the MMS-SIMPPLLE integration is being conducted on the Colorado Plateau region of the western United Sates.

Dynamic Hierarchical Sleep Scheduling for Wireless Ad-Hoc Sensor Networks

PubMed Central

Wen, Chih-Yu; Chen, Ying-Chih

2009-01-01

This paper presents two scheduling management schemes for wireless sensor networks, which manage the sensors by utilizing the hierarchical network structure and allocate network resources efficiently. A local criterion is used to simultaneously establish the sensing coverage and connectivity such that dynamic cluster-based sleep scheduling can be achieved. The proposed schemes are simulated and analyzed to abstract the network behaviors in a number of settings. The experimental results show that the proposed algorithms provide efficient network power control and can achieve high scalability in wireless sensor networks. PMID:22412343

Dynamic hierarchical sleep scheduling for wireless ad-hoc sensor networks.

PubMed

Wen, Chih-Yu; Chen, Ying-Chih

2009-01-01

This paper presents two scheduling management schemes for wireless sensor networks, which manage the sensors by utilizing the hierarchical network structure and allocate network resources efficiently. A local criterion is used to simultaneously establish the sensing coverage and connectivity such that dynamic cluster-based sleep scheduling can be achieved. The proposed schemes are simulated and analyzed to abstract the network behaviors in a number of settings. The experimental results show that the proposed algorithms provide efficient network power control and can achieve high scalability in wireless sensor networks.

Cognitive Aids for Role Definition (CARD) to improve interprofessional team crisis resource management: An exploratory study.

PubMed

Renna, Tania Di; Crooks, Simone; Pigford, Ashlee-Ann; Clarkin, Chantalle; Fraser, Amy B; Bunting, Alexandra C; Bould, M Dylan; Boet, Sylvain

2016-09-01

This study aimed to assess the perceived value of the Cognitive Aids for Role Definition (CARD) protocol for simulated intraoperative cardiac arrests. Sixteen interprofessional operating room teams completed three consecutive simulated intraoperative cardiac arrest scenarios: current standard, no CARD; CARD, no CARD teaching; and CARD, didactic teaching. Each team participated in a focus group interview immediately following the third scenario; data were transcribed verbatim and qualitatively analysed. After 6 months, participants formed eight new teams randomised to two groups (CARD or no CARD) and completed a retention intraoperative cardiac arrest simulation scenario. All simulation sessions were video recorded and expert raters assessed team performance. Qualitative analysis of the 16 focus group interviews revealed 3 thematic dimensions: role definition in crisis management; logistical issues; and the "real life" applicability of CARD. Members of the interprofessional team perceived CARD very positively. Exploratory quantitative analysis found no significant differences in team performance with or without CARD (p > 0.05). In conclusion, qualitative data suggest that the CARD protocol clarifies roles and team coordination during interprofessional crisis management and has the potential to improve the team performance. The concept of a self-organising team with defined roles is promising for patient safety.

HPC Insights, Fall 2011

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-01-01

Simulating Satellite Tracking Using Parallel Computing By Andrew Lindstrom ,University of Hawaii at Hilo — Mentors: Carl Holmberg, Maui High Performance...RDECOM) and his management team, RDECOM Deputy Director Gary Martin ; ARL Director John Miller; Communications- Electronics Research, Development...Saves Resources By Mike Knowles, ARL DSRC Site Lead, Lockheed Martin mode instead of full power down. The first phase of the EAS effort is an attempt

Using historical simulations of vegetation to assess departure of current vegetation conditions across large landscapes[Chapter 11

Treesearch

Lisa Holsinger; Robert E. Keane; Brian Steele; Matthew C. Reeves; Sarah Pratt

2006-01-01

The Landscape Fire and Resource Management Planning Tools Prototype Project, or LANDFIRE Prototype Project, was conceived, in part, to identify areas across the nation where existing landscape conditions are markedly different from historical conditions (Keane and Rollins, Ch. 3). This objective arose from the recognition that over 100 years of land use and wildland...

Analysis of habitat-selection rules using an individual-based model

Treesearch

Steven F. Railsback; Bret C. Harvey

2002-01-01

Abstract - Despite their promise for simulating natural complexity,individual-based models (IBMs) are rarely used for ecological research or resource management. Few IBMs have been shown to reproduce realistic patterns of behavior by individual organisms.To test our IBM of stream salmonids and draw conclusions about foraging theory,we analyzed the IBM ’s ability to...

Integrating satellite imagery with simulation modeling to improve burn severity mapping

Treesearch

Eva C. Karau; Pamela G. Sikkink; Robert E. Keane; Gregory K. Dillon

2014-01-01

Both satellite imagery and spatial fire effects models are valuable tools for generating burn severity maps that are useful to fire scientists and resource managers. The purpose of this study was to test a new mapping approach that integrates imagery and modeling to create more accurate burn severity maps. We developed and assessed a statistical model that combines the...

Chapter 10 - Using simulation modeling to assess historical reference conditions for vegetation and fire regimes for the LANDFIRE Prototype Project

Treesearch

Sarah Pratt; Lisa Holsinger; Robert E. Keane

2006-01-01

A critical component of the Landscape Fire and Resource Management Planning Tools Prototype Project, or LANDFIRE Prototype Project, was the development of a nationally consistent method for estimating historical reference conditions for vegetation composition and structure and wildland fire regimes. These estimates of past vegetation composition and condition are used...

Risk Analysis for Resource Planning Optimization

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chueng, Kar-Ming

2008-01-01

The main purpose of this paper is to introduce a risk management approach that allows planners to quantify the risk and efficiency tradeoff in the presence of uncertainties, and to make forward-looking choices in the development and execution of the plan. Demonstrate a planning and risk analysis framework that tightly integrates mathematical optimization, empirical simulation, and theoretical analysis techniques to solve complex problems.

Processing ARM VAP data on an AWS cluster

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin, T.; Macduff, M.; Shippert, T.

2017-12-01

The Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Data Management Facility (DMF) manages over 18,000 processes and 1.3 TB of data each day. This includes many Value Added Products (VAPs) that make use of multiple instruments to produce the derived products that are scientifically relevant. A thermodynamic and cloud profile VAP is being developed to provide input to the ARM Large-eddy simulation (LES) ARM Symbiotic Simulation and Observation (LASSO) project (https://www.arm.gov/capabilities/vaps/lasso-122) . This algorithm is CPU intensive and the processing requirements exceeded the available DMF computing capacity. Amazon Web Service (AWS) along with CfnCluster was investigated to see how it would perform. This cluster environment is cost effective and scales dynamically based on demand. We were able to take advantage of autoscaling which allowed the cluster to grow and shrink based on the size of the processing queue. We also were able to take advantage of the Amazon Web Services spot market to further reduce the cost. Our test was very successful and found that cloud resources can be used to efficiently and effectively process time series data. This poster will present the resources and methodology used to successfully run the algorithm.

The Virtual Climate Data Server (vCDS): An iRODS-Based Data Management Software Appliance Supporting Climate Data Services and Virtualization-as-a-Service in the NASA Center for Climate Simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schnase, John L.; Tamkin, Glenn S.; Ripley, W. David III; Stong, Savannah; Gill, Roger; Duffy, Daniel Q.

2012-01-01

Scientific data services are becoming an important part of the NASA Center for Climate Simulation's mission. Our technological response to this expanding role is built around the concept of a Virtual Climate Data Server (vCDS), repetitive provisioning, image-based deployment and distribution, and virtualization-as-a-service. The vCDS is an iRODS-based data server specialized to the needs of a particular data-centric application. We use RPM scripts to build vCDS images in our local computing environment, our local Virtual Machine Environment, NASA s Nebula Cloud Services, and Amazon's Elastic Compute Cloud. Once provisioned into one or more of these virtualized resource classes, vCDSs can use iRODS s federation capabilities to create an integrated ecosystem of managed collections that is scalable and adaptable to changing resource requirements. This approach enables platform- or software-asa- service deployment of vCDS and allows the NCCS to offer virtualization-as-a-service: a capacity to respond in an agile way to new customer requests for data services.

e-Science and data management resources on the Web.

PubMed

Gore, Sally A

2011-01-01

The way research is conducted has changed over time, from simple experiments to computer modeling and simulation, from individuals working in isolated laboratories to global networks of researchers collaborating on a single topic. Often, this new paradigm results in the generation of staggering amounts of data. The intensive use of data and the existence of networks of researchers characterize e-Science. The role of libraries and librarians in e-Science has been a topic of interest for some time now. This column looks at tools, resources, and projects that demonstrate successful collaborations between libraries and researchers in e-Science.

Functional and real-time requirements of a multisensor data fusion (MSDF) situation and threat assessment (STA) resource management (RM) system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duquet, Jean Remi; Bergeron, Pierre; Blodgett, Dale E.; Couture, Jean; Macieszczak, Maciej; Mayrand, Michel; Chalmers, Bruce A.; Paradis, Stephane

1998-03-01

The Research and Development group at Lockheed Martin Canada, in collaboration with the Defence Research Establishment Valcartier, has undertaken a research project in order to capture and analyze the real-time and functional requirements of a next generation Command and Control System (CCS) for the Canadian Patrol Frigates, integrating Multi- Sensor Data Fusion (MSDF), Situation and Threat Assessment (STA) and Resource Management (RM). One important aspect of the project is to define how the use of Artificial Intelligence may optimize the performance of an integrated, real-time MSDF/STA/RM system. A closed-loop simulation environment is being developed to facilitate the evaluation of MSDF/STA/RM concepts, algorithms and architectures. This environment comprises (1) a scenario generator, (2) complex sensor, hardkill and softkill weapon models, (3) a real-time monitoring tool, (4) a distributed Knowledge-Base System (KBS) shell. The latter is being completely redesigned and implemented in-house since no commercial KBS shell could adequately satisfy all the project requirements. The closed- loop capability of the simulation environment, together with its `simulated real-time' capability, allows the interaction between the MSDF/STA/RM system and the environment targets during the execution of a scenario. This capability is essential to measure the performance of many STA and RM functionalities. Some benchmark scenarios have been selected to demonstrate quantitatively the capabilities of the selected MSDF/STA/RM algorithms. The paper describes the simulation environment and discusses the MSDF/STA/RM functionalities currently implemented and their performance as an automatic CCS.

Field Investigation and Modeling Development for Hydrological and Carbon Cycles in Southwest Karst Region of China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, X. B.

2017-12-01

It is required to understanding water cycle and carbon cycle processes for water resource management and pollution prevention and global warming influence in southwest karst region of China. Lijiang river basin is selected as our study region. Interdisciplinary field and laboratory experiments with various technologies are conducted to characterize the karst aquifers in detail. Key processes in the karst water cycle and carbon cycle are determined. Based on the MODFLOW-CFP model, new watershed flow and carbon cycle models are developed coupled subsurface and surface water flow models. Our study focus on the karst springshed in Mao village, the mechanisms coupling carbon cycle and water cycle are explored. This study provides basic theory and simulation method for water resource management and groundwater pollution prevention in China karst region.

Applications of space observations to the management and utilization of coastal fishery resources

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kemmerer, A. J.; Savastano, K. J.; Faller, K. H.

1977-01-01

Information needs of those concerned with the harvest and management of coastal fishery resources can be satisfied in part through applications of satellite remote sensing. Recently completed and ongoing investigations have demonstrated potentials for defining fish distribution patterns from multispectral data, monitoring fishing distribution and effort with synthetic aperture radar systems, forecasting recruitment of certain estuarine-dependent species, and tracking marine mammals. These investigations, which are reviewed in this paper, have relied on Landsat 1 and 2, Skylab-3, and Nimbus-6 supported sensors and sensors carried by aircraft and mounted on surface platforms to simulate applications from Seasat-A and other future spacecraft systems. None of the systems are operational as all were designed to identify and demonstrate applications and to aid in the specification of requirements for future spaceborne systems.

An introduction to medical simulation.

PubMed

Brindley, Peter G; Arabi, Yaseen M

2009-08-01

While medical simulation is no panacea, it offers numerous potential strategies for comprehensive and practical training, safer patient care, and for those keen to attract and retain staff. It is a technique, rather than just a technology that promotes experiential and reflective learning. It is also a key strategy to teach Crisis Resource Management skills. Simulation can benefit the individual learner, the multidisciplinary team, and the hospital as a whole. It has been described as a key driver of patient safety, and even as the patient safety laboratory of the future. As such is endorsed by many professional societies in many nations. While challenges remain (and are outlined) there are great opportunities for clinicians, administrators, and educators alike.

A PICKSC Science Gateway for enabling the common plasma physicist to run kinetic software

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Q.; Winjum, B. J.; Zonca, A.; Youn, C.; Tsung, F. S.; Mori, W. B.

2017-10-01

Computer simulations offer tremendous opportunities for studying plasmas, ranging from simulations for students that illuminate fundamental educational concepts to research-level simulations that advance scientific knowledge. Nevertheless, there is a significant hurdle to using simulation tools. Users must navigate codes and software libraries, determine how to wrangle output into meaningful plots, and oftentimes confront a significant cyberinfrastructure with powerful computational resources. Science gateways offer a Web-based environment to run simulations without needing to learn or manage the underlying software and computing cyberinfrastructure. We discuss our progress on creating a Science Gateway for the Particle-in-Cell and Kinetic Simulation Software Center that enables users to easily run and analyze kinetic simulations with our software. We envision that this technology could benefit a wide range of plasma physicists, both in the use of our simulation tools as well as in its adaptation for running other plasma simulation software. Supported by NSF under Grant ACI-1339893 and by the UCLA Institute for Digital Research and Education.

Assessing recovery feasibility for piping plovers using optimization and simulation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Larson, M.A.; Ryan, M.R.; Murphy, R.K.

2003-01-01

Optimization and simulation modeling can be used to account for demographic and economic factors simultaneously in a comprehensive analysis of endangered-species population recovery. This is a powerful approach that is broadly applicable but underutilized in conservation biology. We applied the approach to a population recovery analysis of threatened and endangered piping plovers (Charadrius melodus) in the Great Plains of North America. Predator exclusion increases the reproductive success of piping plovers, but the most cost-efficient strategy of applying predator exclusion and the number of protected breeding pairs necessary to prevent further population declines were unknown. We developed a linear programming model to define strategies that would either maximize fledging rates or minimize financial costs by allocating plover pairs to 1 of 6 types of protection. We evaluated the optimal strategies using a stochastic population simulation model. The minimum cost to achieve a 20% chance of stabilizing simulated populations was approximately $1-11 million over 50 years. Increasing reproductive success to 1.24 fledglings/pair at minimal cost in any given area required fencing 85% of pairs at managed sites but cost 23% less than the current approach. Maximum fledging rates resulted in >20% of simulated populations reaching recovery goals in 30-50 years at cumulative costs of <$16 million. Protecting plover pairs within 50 km of natural resource agency field offices was sufficient to increase simulated populations to established recovery goals. A range-wide management plan needs to be developed and implemented to foster the involvement and cooperation among managers that will be necessary for recovery efforts to be successful. We also discuss how our approach can be applied to a variety of wildlife management issues.

A framework for identifying water management typologies for agent based modeling of water resources and its application in the Boise River Basin, USA.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaiser, K. E.; Flores, A. N.; Hillis, V.; Moroney, J.; Schneider, J.

2017-12-01

Modeling the management of water resources necessitates incorporation of complex social and hydrologic dynamics. Simulation of these socio-ecological systems requires characterization of the decision-making process of relevant actors, the mechanisms through which they exert control on the biophysical system, their ability to react and adapt to regional environmental conditions, and the plausible behaviors in response to changes in those conditions. Agent based models (ABMs) are a useful tool in simulating these complex adaptive systems because they can dynamically couple hydrological models and the behavior of decision making actors. ABMs can provide a flexible, integrated framework that can represent multi-scale interactions, and the heterogeneity of information networks and sources. However, the variability in behavior of water management actors across systems makes characterizing agent behaviors and relationships challenging. Agent typologies, or agent functional types (AFTs), group together individuals and/or agencies with similar functional roles, management objectives, and decision-making strategies. AFTs have been used to represent archetypal land managers in the agricultural and forestry sectors in large-scale socio-economic system models. A similar typology of water actors could simplify the representation of water management across river basins, and increase transferability and scaling of resulting ABMs. Here, we present a framework for identifying and classifying major water actors and show how we will link an ABM of water management to a regional hydrologic model in a western river basin. The Boise River Basin in southwest Idaho is an interesting setting to apply our AFT framework because of the diverse stakeholders and associated management objectives which include managing urban growth pressures and water supply in the face of climate change. Precipitation in the upper basin supplies 90% of the surface water used in the basin, thus managers of the reservoir system (located in the upper basin) must balance flood control for the metropolitan area with water supply for downstream agricultural and hydropower use. Identifying dominant water management typologies that include state and federal agencies will increase the transferability of water management ABMs in the western US.

Potential of forest management to reduce French carbon emissions - regional modelling of the French forest carbon balance from the forest to the wood.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valade, A.; Luyssaert, S.; Bellassen, V.; Vallet, P.

2015-12-01

In France the low levels of forest harvest (40 Mm3 per year over a volume increment of 89Mm3) is frequently cited to push for a more intensive management of the forest that would help reducing CO2 emissions. This reasoning overlooks the medium-to-long-term effects on the carbon uptake at the national scale that result from changes in the forest's structure and delayed emissions from products decay and bioenergy burning, both determinant for the overall C fluxes between the biosphere and the atmosphere. To address the impacts of an increase in harvest removal on biosphere-atmosphere carbon fluxes at national scale, we build a consistent regional modeling framework to integrate the forest-carbon system from photosynthesis to wood uses. We aim at bridging the gap between regional ecosystem modeling and land managers' considerations, to assess the synergistic and antagonistic effects of management strategies over C-based forest services: C-sequestration, energy and material provision, fossil fuel substitution. For this, we built on inventory data to develop a spatial forest growth simulator and design a novel method for diagnosing the current level of management based on stand characteristics (density, quadratic mean diameter or exploitability). The growth and harvest simulated are then processed with a life cycle analysis to account for wood transformation and uses. Three scenarii describe increases in biomass removals either driven by energy production target (set based on national prospective with a lock on minimum harvest diameters) or by changes in management practices (shorter or longer rotations, management of currently unmanaged forests) to be compared with business as usual simulations. Our management levels' diagnostics quantifies undermanagement at national scale and evidences the large weight of ownership-based undermanagement with an average of 26% of the national forest (between 10% and 40% per species) and thus represents a huge potential wood resource. We examine the effects of a mobilization of this resource versus an intensification of the current harvest on the age structure, the productivity and the stocking volume of the French forest and derive the related impacts on C emissions and C-related services provided by forests.

New horizons in remote sensing for forest range resource management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lauer, D.T.

1985-01-01

Forest and range resource scientists were among the first to recognize the potential of aircraft and satellite remote sensing for management of timber, forage, water, and wildlife resource. Today, data from a variety of sensor systems are being put to practical use for inventorying, monitoring, and assessing forest and range resources. In the future, improved sensor systems providing new kinds of data will be available. Likewise, new types of data handling and processing systems can be anticipated. Among the new or anticipated aircraft and satellite systems and/or data are National High-Altitude Photograph II, U. S. Geological Survey-acquired Side-Looking Airborne Radar, the Landsat thematic mapper, the National Oceanic Resolution Radiometer, the French Systeme Probatoire d'Observation de la Terre (SPOT) satellite, the European Space Agency Earth Resources Satellite, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Large Format Camera and Shuttle Imaging Radar (SIR-A, -B, and -C), and a variety of other systems in existence or planned by the Soviets, Japanese, Canadians, Chinese, Brazilians, Indonesians, and other. Application examples are presented that illustrate uses of 1-kilometer-resolution AVHRR data, 80-meter Landsat multispectral scanner data, 30-meter Landsat thematic mapper data, and 10-meter SPOT-simulator data. These examples address fire fuel monitoring, land cover mapping, rangeland assessment, and soils landscape mapping.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ruth, M.; Pratt, A.; Lunacek, M.

The combination of distributed energy resources (DER) and retail tariff structures to provide benefits to both utility consumers and the utilities is not well understood. To improve understanding, an Integrated Energy System Model (IESM) is being developed to simulate the physical and economic aspects of DER technologies, the buildings where they reside, and feeders servicing them. The IESM was used to simulate 20 houses with home energy management systems on a single feeder under a time-of-use (TOU) tariff to estimate economic and physical impacts on both the households and the distribution utilities. Home energy management systems (HEMS) reduce consumers’ electricmore » bills by precooling houses in the hours before peak electricity pricing. Utilization of HEMS reduce peak loads during high price hours but shifts it to hours with off-peak and shoulder prices, resulting in a higher peak load. used to simulate 20 houses with home energy management systems on a single feeder under a time-of-use (TOU) tariff to estimate economic and physical impacts on both the households and the distribution utilities. Home energy management systems (HEMS) reduce consumers’ electric bills by precooling houses in the hours before peak electricity pricing. Utilization of HEMS reduce peak loads during high price hours but shifts it to hours with off-peak and shoulder prices, resulting in a higher peak load.« less

Seasonal forecasts of groundwater levels in Lanyang Plain in Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, Ya-Chi; Lin, Yi-Chiu

2017-04-01

Groundwater plays a critical and important role in world's freshwater resources and it is also an important part of Taiwan's water supply for domestic, agricultural and industrial use. Prolonged dry climatic conditions can induce groundwater drought and may have huge impact on water resources. Therefore, this study utilizes seasonal rainfall forecasts from the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) to simulate groundwater levels in Lanyang Plain in Taiwan up to three months into future. The MPAS is setup with 120 km uniform grid and the physics schemes including WSM6 micorphysics scheme, Kain-Fritsch cumulus scheme, RRTMG radiation scheme, and YSU planetary boundary layer scheme are used to provide the rainfall forecasts. Results of this study can provide a reference for water resources management to ensure the sustainability of groundwater resources in Lanyang Plain.

Design and implementation of a 3D ocean virtual reality and visualization engine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Ge; Li, Bo; Tian, Fenglin; Ji, Pengbo; Li, Wenqing

2012-12-01

In this study, a 3D virtual reality and visualization engine for rendering the ocean, named VV-Ocean, is designed for marine applications. The design goals of VV-Ocean aim at high fidelity simulation of ocean environment, visualization of massive and multidimensional marine data, and imitation of marine lives. VV-Ocean is composed of five modules, i.e. memory management module, resources management module, scene management module, rendering process management module and interaction management module. There are three core functions in VV-Ocean: reconstructing vivid virtual ocean scenes, visualizing real data dynamically in real time, imitating and simulating marine lives intuitively. Based on VV-Ocean, we establish a sea-land integration platform which can reproduce drifting and diffusion processes of oil spilling from sea bottom to surface. Environment factors such as ocean current and wind field have been considered in this simulation. On this platform oil spilling process can be abstracted as movements of abundant oil particles. The result shows that oil particles blend with water well and the platform meets the requirement for real-time and interactive rendering. VV-Ocean can be widely used in ocean applications such as demonstrating marine operations, facilitating maritime communications, developing ocean games, reducing marine hazards, forecasting the weather over oceans, serving marine tourism, and so on. Finally, further technological improvements of VV-Ocean are discussed.

[Simulator-based modular human factor training in anesthesiology. Concept and results of the module "Communication and Team Cooperation"].

PubMed

St Pierre, M; Hofinger, G; Buerschaper, C; Grapengeter, M; Harms, H; Breuer, G; Schüttler, J

2004-02-01

Human factors (HF) play a major role in crisis development and management and simulator training can help to train HF aspects. We developed a modular training concept with psychological intensive briefing. The aim of the study was to see whether learning and transfer in the treatment group (TG) with the module "communication and team-cooperation" differed from that in the control group (CG) without psychological briefing ("anaesthesia crisis resource management type course"). A total of 34 residents (TG: n=20, CG: n=14) managed 1 out of 3 scenarios and communication patterns and management were evaluated using video recordings. A questionnaire was answered at the end of the course and 2 months later participants were asked for lessons learnt and behavioral changes. Good communication and medical management showed a significant correlation (r=0.57, p=0.001). The TG showed greater initiative ( p=0.001) and came more often in conflict with the surgeon ( p=0.06). The TG also reported more behavioral changes than the CG 2 months later. The reported benefit of the simulation was training for rare events in the CG, whereas in the TG it was issues of communication and cooperation ( p=0.001). A training concept with psychological intensive briefing may enhance the transfer of HF aspects more than classical ACRM.

Intraoperative crisis resource management during a non-intubated video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery

PubMed Central

Gálvez, Carlos; Rivera-Cogollos, María Jesus; Galiana-Ivars, María; Bolufer, Sergio; Martínez-Adsuar, Francisco

2015-01-01

The management of surgical and medical intraoperative emergencies are included in the group of high acuity (high potential severity of an event and the patient impact) and low opportunity (the frequency in which the team is required to manage the event). This combination places the patient into a situation where medical errors could happen more frequently. Although medical error are ubiquitous and inevitable we should try to establish the necessary knowledge, skills and attitudes needed for effective team performance and to guide the development of a critical event. This strategy would probably reduce the incidence of error and improve decision-making. The way to apply it comes from the application of the management of critical events in the airline industry. Its use in a surgical environment is through the crisis resource management (CRM) principles. The CRM tries to develop all the non-technical skills necessary in a critical situation, but not only that, also includes all the tools needed to prevent them. The purpose of this special issue is to appraise and summarize the design, implementation, and efficacy of simulation-based CRM training programs for a specific surgery such as the non-intubated video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery. PMID:26046052

Future change of water vaiables from HadGEM2-AO simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Moon-Hyun; Kang, Hyun-Suk; Lee, Johan; Baek, Hee-Jeong; Cho, Chunho

2013-04-01

Complex global models developed for climate prediction are now applied to the future climate projection in a number of global modeling centers around the world. In climate prediction aspects, an atmosphere-ocean coupled model (one-tier climate system) has been recognized to exhibit useful skill for a global or certain regions (Graham et al., 2005). Wang et al. (2005) demonstrates that an AGCM coupled with an ocean model, simulates realistic SST-rainfall relationships for the Asia during the summer period. Also the transition from two-tier to one-tier approach in climate prediction are mainly caused by recent progresses in development of coupled climate models and enlargement of understanding air-sea interactions obtained from international collaborative efforts such as TOGA (the Tropical Ocean-Global Atmosphere) program (Wang et al., 2009). Meanwhile, water resource including river outflow in association with surface and sub-surface water flow is an important part of the global hydrological cycle, and is affected by climate variability and change through recharge processes (Chen et al., 2002), as well as by human interventions in many locations (Petheram et al., 2001). Also, water is critical resource to the social, economic and environmental aspects, and advances of these core elements requires improved water resource management. Better management and use of water need to abundant real time hydro-meteorological (river and weather) information as well as accurate water resource forecasting (Barrett, 1990). For this reason, many studies have recently carrying out the water resource prediction and estimation using hydrology and climate model. For example, Shiklomanov et al. (2011) predicted that water resource in Russian territory increases about 8-10% during 2010-2020 using the unit hydrograph (UH) model based on hydrologic rainfall-runoff model. Anderson et al. (2000) explained the probabilistic seasonal prediction of drought with a simplified climate model coupled hydrology-atmosphere for water resource planning. Arora et al. (1999) and Oki and Sud (1998) developed a method for routing river flows through GCM grid cells. Accordingly, reliable forecasts are expected to help water managers and users with long lead time decisions, leading to greater water use efficiency and better risk management (Wang, 2012). SO, we analysed hydrological cycle and drought index from precipitation, evaporation, runoff, soil moisture, river outflow, and so on using atmosphere-ocean coupled model which called by HadGEM2-AO. Details and added information by this climate projection system about the future water cycle's change will be presented at the workshop. Acknowledgments: This research has been supported by project NIMR-2013-B-2 of the National Institute of Meteorological Research in Korea Meteorological Administration.

Integrated water resources modelling for assessing sustainable water governance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skoulikaris, Charalampos; Ganoulis, Jacques; Tsoukalas, Ioannis; Makropoulos, Christos; Gkatzogianni, Eleni; Michas, Spyros

2015-04-01

Climatic variations and resulting future uncertainties, increasing anthropogenic pressures, changes in political boundaries, ineffective or dysfunctional governance of natural resources and environmental degradation are some of the most fundamental challenges with which worldwide initiatives fostering the "think globally, act locally" concept are concerned. Different initiatives target the protection of the environment through sustainable development; Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) and Transboundary Water Resources Management (TWRM) in the case of internationally shared waters are frameworks that have gained wide political acceptance at international level and form part of water resources management planning and implementation on a global scale. Both concepts contribute in promoting economic efficiency, social equity and environmental sustainability. Inspired by these holistic management approaches, the present work describes an effort that uses integrated water resources modelling for the development of an integrated, coherent and flexible water governance tool. This work in which a sequence of computer based models and tools are linked together, aims at the evaluation of the sustainable operation of projects generating renewable energy from water as well as the sustainability of agricultural demands and environmental security in terms of environmental flow under various climatic and operational conditions. More specifically, catchment hydrological modelling is coupled with dams' simulation models and thereafter with models dedicated to water resources management and planning,while the bridging of models is conducted through geographic information systems and custom programming tools. For the case of Mesta/Nestos river basin different priority rules in the dams' operational schedule (e.g. priority given to power production as opposed to irrigation needs and vice versa), as well as different irrigation demands, e.g. current water demands as opposed to those defined in the River Basin Management Plan (RBMP), are thoroughly examined in order to ascertain the river's capability to cover multi water demands and the potential of further infrastructure development. Due to the transboundary nature of the river basin in question, different scenarios quantify the maximum water volumes that could be further exploited in the upper part of the basin in order to avoid adverse consequences to the downstream regional economy, power productivity and environmental flow, and in terms of water governance to satisfy the need to balance water use between socio-economic activities and ecosystems.

Practical solutions for reducing container ships' waiting times at ports using simulation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheikholeslami, Abdorreza; Ilati, Gholamreza; Yeganeh, Yones Eftekhari

2013-12-01

The main challenge for container ports is the planning required for berthing container ships while docked in port. Growth of containerization is creating problems for ports and container terminals as they reach their capacity limits of various resources which increasingly leads to traffic and port congestion. Good planning and management of container terminal operations reduces waiting time for liner ships. Reducing the waiting time improves the terminal's productivity and decreases the port difficulties. Two important keys to reducing waiting time with berth allocation are determining suitable access channel depths and increasing the number of berths which in this paper are studied and analyzed as practical solutions. Simulation based analysis is the only way to understand how various resources interact with each other and how they are affected in the berthing time of ships. We used the Enterprise Dynamics software to produce simulation models due to the complexity and nature of the problems. We further present case study for berth allocation simulation of the biggest container terminal in Iran and the optimum access channel depth and the number of berths are obtained from simulation results. The results show a significant reduction in the waiting time for container ships and can be useful for major functions in operations and development of container ship terminals.

Does warm-up using mental practice improve crisis resource management performance? A simulation study.

PubMed

Hayter, M A; Bould, M D; Afsari, M; Riem, N; Chiu, M; Boet, S

2013-02-01

Mental practice (MP) is defined as the 'symbolic rehearsal of a physical activity in the absence of any gross-muscular movements' and has been used in sport and music to enhance performance. In healthcare, MP has been demonstrated to improve technical skill performance of surgical residents. However, its effect on crisis resource management (CRM) skills has yet to be determined. We aimed to investigate the effect of warm-up with MP on CRM skill performance during a simulated crisis scenario. Following ethics board approval, 40 anaesthesia residents were randomized. The intervention group performed 20 min of MP of a script based on CRM principles. The control group received a 20 min didactic teaching session on an unrelated topic. Each subject then managed a simulated cardiac arrest. Two CRM experts rated the video recordings of each performance using the previously validated Ottawa GRS. The time to start chest compressions, administer epinephrine, and give blood was recorded. There was no significant difference between the intervention and control groups: total Ottawa GRS score was 24.50 (18.63-28.88 [6.50-34.50]) (median (inter-quartile range [range]) vs 20.50 (13.00-29.13 [6.50-34.50]) (P=0.53); the time to start chest compressions 146.0 s (138.0-231.0 [115.0-323.0]) vs 162.5 s (138.0-231.0 [100.0-460.0]) (P=0.27), the time to epinephrine administration 163.0 s (151.0-187.0 [111.0-337.0]) vs 187.0 s (164.0-244.0 [115.0-310.0]) (P=0.09), and the time to blood administration 220.5 s (130.8-309.0 [92.0-485.0]) vs 252.5 (174.5-398.8 [65.0-527.0]) (P=0.48). Unlike technical skills, warm-up with MP does not seem to improve CRM skills in simulated crisis scenarios.

Using QMRAcatch - a stochastic hydrological water quality and infection risk model - to identify sustainable management options for long term drinking water resource planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Derx, J.; Demeter, K.; Schijven, J. F.; Sommer, R.; Zoufal-Hruza, C. M.; Kromp, H.; Farnleitner, A.; Blaschke, A. P.

2017-12-01

River water resources in urban environments play a critical role in sustaining human health and ecosystem services, as they are used for drinking water production, bathing and irrigation. In this study the hydrological water quality model QMRAcatch was used combined with measured concentrations of human enterovirus and human-associated genetic fecal markers. The study area is located at a river/floodplain area along the Danube which is used for drinking water production by river bank filtration and further disinfection. QMRAcatch was previously developed to support long term planning of water resources in accordance with a public infection protection target (Schijven et al., 2015). Derx et al. 2016 previously used QMRAcatch for evaluating the microbiological quality and required virus-reduction targets at the study area for the current and robust future "crisis" scenarios, i.e. for the complete failure of wastewater treatment plants and infection outbreaks. In contrast, the aim of this study was to elaborate future scenarios based on projected climate and population changes in collaboration with urban water managers. The identified scenarios until 2050 include increased wastewater discharge rates due to the projected urban population growth and more frequent storm and overflow events of urban sewer systems following forecasted changes in climate and hydrology. Based on the simulation results for the developed scenarios sustainable requirements of the drinking water treatment system for virus reductions were re-evaluated to achieve the health risk target. The model outcomes are used to guide practical and scientifically sound management options for long term water resource planning. This paper was supported by FWF (Vienna Doctoral Program on Water Resource Systems W1219-N22) and the GWRS project (Vienna Water) as part of the "(New) Danube-Lower Lobau Network Project" funded by the Government of Austria and Vienna, and the European Agricultural Fund for Rural Development (LE 07-13). ReferencesDerx, J. et al. (2016) QMRAcatch: Human-Associated Fecal Pollution and Infection Risk Modeling for a River/Floodplain Environment. J Env Qual 45(4), 1205-1214 Schijven, J., et al. (2015) QMRAcatch: Microbial Quality Simulation of Water Resources including Infection Risk Assessment. J Env Qual 44(5), 1491-1502

Improving assessment of groundwater-resource sustainability with deterministic modelling: a case study of the semi-arid Musi sub-basin, South India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Massuel, S.; George, B. A.; Venot, J.-P.; Bharati, L.; Acharya, S.

2013-11-01

Since the 1990s, Indian farmers, supported by the government, have partially shifted from surface-water to groundwater irrigation in response to the uncertainty in surface-water availability. Water-management authorities only slowly began to consider sustainable use of groundwater resources as a prime concern. Now, a reliable integration of groundwater resources for water-allocation planning is needed to prevent aquifer overexploitation. Within the 11,000-km2 Musi River sub-basin (South India), human interventions have dramatically impacted the hard-rock aquifers, with a water-table drop of 0.18 m/a over the period 1989-2004. A fully distributed numerical groundwater model was successfully implemented at catchment scale. The model allowed two distinct conceptualizations of groundwater availability to be quantified: one that was linked to easily quantified fluxes, and one that was more expressive of long-term sustainability by taking account of all sources and sinks. Simulations showed that the latter implied 13 % less available groundwater for exploitation than did the former. In turn, this has major implications for the existing water-allocation modelling framework used to guide decision makers and water-resources managers worldwide.

Range Systems Simulation for the NASA Shuttle: Emphasis on Disaster and Prevention Management During Lift-Off

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rabelo, Lisa; Sepulveda, Jose; Moraga, Reinaldo; Compton, Jeppie; Turner, Robert

2005-01-01

This article describes a decision-making system composed of a number of safety and environmental models for the launch phase of a NASA Space Shuttle mission. The components of this distributed simulation environment represent the different systems that must collaborate to establish the Expectation of Casualties (E(sub c)) caused by a failed Space Shuttle launch and subsequent explosion (accidental or instructed) of the spacecraft shortly after liftoff. This decision-making tool employs Space Shuttle reliability models, trajectory models, a blast model, weather dissemination systems, population models, amount and type of toxicants, gas dispersion models, human response functions to toxicants, and a geographical information system. Since one of the important features of this proposed simulation environment is to measure blast, toxic, and debris effects, the clear benefits is that it can help safety managers not only estimate the population at risk, but also to help plan evacuations, make sheltering decisions, establish the resources required to provide aid and comfort, and mitigate damages in case of a disaster.

High-resolution Continental Scale Land Surface Model incorporating Land-water Management in United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shin, S.; Pokhrel, Y. N.

2016-12-01

Land surface models have been used to assess water resources sustainability under changing Earth environment and increasing human water needs. Overwhelming observational records indicate that human activities have ubiquitous and pertinent effects on the hydrologic cycle; however, they have been crudely represented in large scale land surface models. In this study, we enhance an integrated continental-scale land hydrology model named Leaf-Hydro-Flood to better represent land-water management. The model is implemented at high resolution (5km grids) over the continental US. Surface water and groundwater are withdrawn based on actual practices. Newly added irrigation, water diversion, and dam operation schemes allow better simulations of stream flows, evapotranspiration, and infiltration. Results of various hydrologic fluxes and stores from two sets of simulation (one with and the other without human activities) are compared over a range of river basin and aquifer scales. The improved simulations of land hydrology have potential to build consistent modeling framework for human-water-climate interactions.

A dynamic simulation based water resources education tool.

PubMed

Williams, Alison; Lansey, Kevin; Washburne, James

2009-01-01

Educational tools to assist the public in recognizing impacts of water policy in a realistic context are not generally available. This project developed systems with modeling-based educational decision support simulation tools to satisfy this need. The goal of this model is to teach undergraduate students and the general public about the implications of common water management alternatives so that they can better understand or become involved in water policy and make more knowledgeable personal or community decisions. The model is based on Powersim, a dynamic simulation software package capable of producing web-accessible, intuitive, graphic, user-friendly interfaces. Modules are included to represent residential, agricultural, industrial, and turf uses, as well as non-market values, water quality, reservoir, flow, and climate conditions. Supplementary materials emphasize important concepts and lead learners through the model, culminating in an open-ended water management project. The model is used in a University of Arizona undergraduate class and within the Arizona Master Watershed Stewards Program. Evaluation results demonstrated improved understanding of concepts and system interactions, fulfilling the project's objectives.

OpenDanubia - An integrated, modular simulation system to support regional water resource management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muerth, M.; Waldmann, D.; Heinzeller, C.; Hennicker, R.; Mauser, W.

2012-04-01

The already completed, multi-disciplinary research project GLOWA-Danube has developed a regional scale, integrated modeling system, which was successfully applied on the 77,000 km2 Upper Danube basin to investigate the impact of Global Change on both the natural and anthropogenic water cycle. At the end of the last project phase, the integrated modeling system was transferred into the open source project OpenDanubia, which now provides both the core system as well as all major model components to the general public. First, this will enable decision makers from government, business and management to use OpenDanubia as a tool for proactive management of water resources in the context of global change. Secondly, the model framework to support integrated simulations and all simulation models developed for OpenDanubia in the scope of GLOWA-Danube are further available for future developments and research questions. OpenDanubia allows for the investigation of water-related scenarios considering different ecological and economic aspects to support both scientists and policy makers to design policies for sustainable environmental management. OpenDanubia is designed as a framework-based, distributed system. The model system couples spatially distributed physical and socio-economic process during run-time, taking into account their mutual influence. To simulate the potential future impacts of Global Change on agriculture, industrial production, water supply, households and tourism businesses, so-called deep actor models are implemented in OpenDanubia. All important water-related fluxes and storages in the natural environment are implemented in OpenDanubia as spatially explicit, process-based modules. This includes the land surface water and energy balance, dynamic plant water uptake, ground water recharge and flow as well as river routing and reservoirs. Although the complete system is relatively demanding on data requirements and hardware requirements, the modular structure and the generic core system (Core Framework, Actor Framework) allows the application in new regions and the selection of a reduced number of modules for simulation. As part of the Open Source Initiative in GLOWA-Danube (opendanubia.glowa-danube.de) a comprehensive documentation for the system installation was created and both the program code of the framework and of all major components is licensed under the GNU General Public License. In addition, some helpful programs and scripts necessary for the operation and processing of input and result data sets are provided.

Pediatric crisis resource management training improves emergency medicine trainees' perceived ability to manage emergencies and ability to identify teamwork errors.

PubMed

Bank, Ilana; Snell, Linda; Bhanji, Farhan

2014-12-01

Improved pediatric crisis resource management (CRM) training is needed in emergency medicine residencies because of the variable nature of exposure to critically ill pediatric patients during training. We created a short, needs-based pediatric CRM simulation workshop with postactivity follow-up to determine retention of CRM knowledge. Our aims were to provide a realistic learning experience for residents and to help the learners recognize common errors in teamwork and improve their perceived abilities to manage ill pediatric patients. Residents participated in a 4-hour objectives-based workshop derived from a formal needs assessment. To quantify their subjective abilities to manage pediatric cases, the residents completed a postworkshop survey (with a retrospective precomponent to assess perceived change). Ability to identify CRM errors was determined via a written assessment of scripted errors in a prerecorded video observed before and 1 month after completion of the workshop. Fifteen of the 16 eligible emergency medicine residents (postgraduate year 1-5) attended the workshop and completed the surveys. There were significant differences in 15 of 16 retrospective pre to post survey items using the Wilcoxon rank sum test for non-parametric data. These included ability to be an effective team leader in general (P < 0.008), delegating tasks appropriately (P < 0.009), and ability to ensure closed-loop communication (P < 0.008). There was a significant improvement in identification of CRM errors through the use of the video assessment from 3 of the 12 CRM errors to 7 of the 12 CRM errors (P < 0.006). The pediatric CRM simulation-based workshop improved the residents' self-perceptions of their pediatric CRM abilities and improved their performance on a video assessment task.

Simulating Water Resource Disputes of Transboundary River: A Case Study of the Zhanghe River Basin, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Liang; He, Weijun; Liao, Zaiyi; Mulugeta Degefu, Dagmawi; An, Min; Zhang, Zhaofang

2018-01-01

Water resource disputes within transboundary river basin has been hindering the sustainable use of water resources and efficient management of environment. The problem is characterized by a complex information feedback loop that involves socio-economic and environmental systems. This paper presents a system dynamics based model that can simulate the dynamics of water demand, water supply, water adequacy and water allocation instability within a river basin. It was used for a case study in the Zhanghe River basin of China. The base scenario has been investigated for the time period between 2000 and 2050. The result shows that the Chinese national government should change the water allocation scheme of downstream Zhanghe River established in 1989, more water need to be allocated to the downstream cities and the actual allocation should be adjusted to reflect the need associated with the socio-economic and environmental changes within the region, and system dynamics improves the understanding of concepts and system interactions by offering a comprehensive and integrated view of the physical, social, economic, environmental, and political systems.

Development and application of a comprehensive simulation model to evaluate impacts of watershed structures and irrigation water use on streamflow and groundwater: The case of Wet Walnut Creek Watershed, Kansas, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ramireddygari, S.R.; Sophocleous, M.A.; Koelliker, J.K.; Perkins, S.P.; Govindaraju, R.S.

2000-01-01

This paper presents the results of a comprehensive modeling study of surface and groundwater systems, including stream-aquifer interactions, for the Wet Walnut Creek Watershed in west-central Kansas. The main objective of this study was to assess the impacts of watershed structures and irrigation water use on streamflow and groundwater levels, which in turn affect availability of water for the Cheyenne Bottoms Wildlife Refuge Management area. The surface-water flow model, POTYLDR, and the groundwater flow model, MODFLOW, were combined into an integrated, watershed-scale, continuous simulation model. Major revisions and enhancements were made to the POTYLDR and MODFLOW models for simulating the detailed hydrologic budget for the Wet Walnut Creek Watershed. The computer simulation model was calibrated and verified using historical streamflow records (at Albert and Nekoma gaging stations), reported irrigation water use, observed water-level elevations in watershed structure pools, and groundwater levels in the alluvial aquifer system. To assess the impact of watershed structures and irrigation water use on streamflow and groundwater levels, a number of hypothetical management scenarios were simulated under various operational criteria for watershed structures and different annual limits on water use for irrigation. A standard 'base case' was defined to allow comparative analysis of the results of different scenarios. The simulated streamflows showed that watershed structures decrease both streamflows and groundwater levels in the watershed. The amount of water used for irrigation has a substantial effect on the total simulated streamflow and groundwater levels, indicating that irrigation is a major budget item for managing water resources in the watershed. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V.This paper presents the results of a comprehensive modeling study of surface and groundwater systems, including stream-aquifer interactions, for the Wet Walnut Creek Watershed in west-central Kansas. The main objective of this study was to assess the impacts of watershed structures and irrigation water use on streamflow and groundwater levels, which in turn affect availability of water for the Cheyenne Bottoms Wildlife Refuge Management area. The surface-water flow model, POTYLDR, and the groundwater flow model, MODFLOW, were combined into an integrated, watershed-scale, continuous simulation model. Major revisions and enhancements were made to the POTYLDR and MODFLOW models for simulating the detailed hydrologic budget for the Wet Walnut Creek Watershed. The computer simulation model was calibrated and verified using historical streamflow records (at Albert and Nekoma gaging stations), reported irrigation water use, observed water-level elevations in watershed structure pools, and groundwater levels in the alluvial aquifer system. To assess the impact of watershed structures and irrigation water use on streamflow and groundwater levels, a number of hypothetical management scenarios were simulated under various operational criteria for watershed structures and different annual limits on water use for irrigation. A standard `base case' was defined to allow comparative analysis of the results of different scenarios. The simulated streamflows showed that watershed structures decrease both streamflows and groundwater levels in the watershed. The amount of water used for irrigation has a substantial effect on the total simulated streamflow and groundwater levels, indicating that irrigation is a major budget item for managing water resources in the watershed.A comprehensive simulation model that combines the surface water flow model POTYLDR and the groundwater flow model MODFLOW was used to study the impacts of watershed structures (e.g., dams) and irrigation water use (including stream-aquifer interactions) on streamflow and groundwater. The model was revised, enhanced, calibrated, and verified, then applied to evaluate the hydrologic budget for Wet Wal

Colonoscopy procedure simulation: virtual reality training based on a real time computational approach.

PubMed

Wen, Tingxi; Medveczky, David; Wu, Jackie; Wu, Jianhuang

2018-01-25

Colonoscopy plays an important role in the clinical screening and management of colorectal cancer. The traditional 'see one, do one, teach one' training style for such invasive procedure is resource intensive and ineffective. Given that colonoscopy is difficult, and time-consuming to master, the use of virtual reality simulators to train gastroenterologists in colonoscopy operations offers a promising alternative. In this paper, a realistic and real-time interactive simulator for training colonoscopy procedure is presented, which can even include polypectomy simulation. Our approach models the colonoscopy as thick flexible elastic rods with different resolutions which are dynamically adaptive to the curvature of the colon. More material characteristics of this deformable material are integrated into our discrete model to realistically simulate the behavior of the colonoscope. We present a simulator for training colonoscopy procedure. In addition, we propose a set of key aspects of our simulator that give fast, high fidelity feedback to trainees. We also conducted an initial validation of this colonoscopic simulator to determine its clinical utility and efficacy.

Towards improved hydrologic predictions using data assimilation techniques for water resource management at the continental scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naz, Bibi; Kurtz, Wolfgang; Kollet, Stefan; Hendricks Franssen, Harrie-Jan; Sharples, Wendy; Görgen, Klaus; Keune, Jessica; Kulkarni, Ketan

2017-04-01

More accurate and reliable hydrologic simulations are important for many applications such as water resource management, future water availability projections and predictions of extreme events. However, simulation of spatial and temporal variations in the critical water budget components such as precipitation, snow, evaporation and runoff is highly uncertain, due to errors in e.g. model structure and inputs (hydrologic parameters and forcings). In this study, we use data assimilation techniques to improve the predictability of continental-scale water fluxes using in-situ measurements along with remotely sensed information to improve hydrologic predications for water resource systems. The Community Land Model, version 3.5 (CLM) integrated with the Parallel Data Assimilation Framework (PDAF) was implemented at spatial resolution of 1/36 degree (3 km) over the European CORDEX domain. The modeling system was forced with a high-resolution reanalysis system COSMO-REA6 from Hans-Ertel Centre for Weather Research (HErZ) and ERA-Interim datasets for time period of 1994-2014. A series of data assimilation experiments were conducted to assess the efficiency of assimilation of various observations, such as river discharge data, remotely sensed soil moisture, terrestrial water storage and snow measurements into the CLM-PDAF at regional to continental scales. This setup not only allows to quantify uncertainties, but also improves streamflow predictions by updating simultaneously model states and parameters utilizing observational information. The results from different regions, watershed sizes, spatial resolutions and timescales are compared and discussed in this study.

Beyond crisis resource management: new frontiers in human factors training for acute care medicine.

PubMed

Petrosoniak, Andrew; Hicks, Christopher M

2013-12-01

Error is ubiquitous in medicine, particularly during critical events and resuscitation. A significant proportion of adverse events can be attributed to inadequate team-based skills such as communication, leadership, situation awareness and resource utilization. Aviation-based crisis resource management (CRM) training using high-fidelity simulation has been proposed as a strategy to improve team behaviours. This review will address key considerations in CRM training and outline recommendations for the future of human factors education in healthcare. A critical examination of the current literature yields several important considerations to guide the development and implementation of effective simulation-based CRM training. These include defining a priori domain-specific objectives, creating an immersive environment that encourages deliberate practice and transfer-appropriate processing, and the importance of effective team debriefing. Building on research from high-risk industry, we suggest that traditional CRM training may be augmented with new training techniques that promote the development of shared mental models for team and task processes, address the effect of acute stress on team performance, and integrate strategies to improve clinical reasoning and the detection of cognitive errors. The evolution of CRM training involves a 'Triple Threat' approach that integrates mental model theory for team and task processes, training for stressful situations and metacognition and error theory towards a more comprehensive training paradigm, with roots in high-risk industry and cognitive psychology. Further research is required to evaluate the impact of this approach on patient-oriented outcomes.

Integrated wildfire risk assessment: framework development and application on the Lewis and Clark National Forest in Montana, USA.

PubMed

Thompson, Matthew P; Scott, Joe; Helmbrecht, Don; Calkin, Dave E

2013-04-01

The financial, socioeconomic, and ecological impacts of wildfire continue to challenge federal land management agencies in the United States. In recent years, policymakers and managers have increasingly turned to the field of risk analysis to better manage wildfires and to mitigate losses to highly valued resources and assets (HVRAs). Assessing wildfire risk entails the interaction of multiple components, including integrating wildfire simulation outputs with geospatial identification of HVRAs and the characterization of fire effects to HVRAs. We present an integrated and systematic risk assessment framework that entails 3 primary analytical components: 1) stochastic wildfire simulation and burn probability modeling to characterize wildfire hazard, 2) expert-based modeling to characterize fire effects, and 3) multicriteria decision analysis to characterize preference structures across at-risk HVRAs. We demonstrate application of this framework for a wildfire risk assessment performed on the Little Belts Assessment Area within the Lewis and Clark National Forest in Montana, United States. We devote particular attention to our approach to eliciting and encapsulating expert judgment, in which we: 1) adhered to a structured process for using expert judgment in ecological risk assessment, 2) used as our expert base local resource scientists and fire/fuels specialists who have a direct connection to the specific landscape and HVRAs in question, and 3) introduced multivariate response functions to characterize fire effects to HVRAs that consider biophysical variables beyond fire behavior. We anticipate that this work will further the state of wildfire risk science and will lead to additional application of risk assessment to inform land management planning. Copyright © 2012 SETAC.

Development of an Improved Irrigation Subroutine in SWAT to Simulate the Hydrology of Rice Paddy Grown under Submerged Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muraleedharan, B. V.; Kathirvel, K.; Narasimhan, B.; Nallasamy, N. D.

2014-12-01

Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is a basin scale, distributed hydrological model commonly used to predict the effect of management decisions on the hydrologic response of watersheds. Hydrologic response is decided by the various components of water balance. In the case of watersheds located in south India as well as in several other tropical countries around the world, paddy is one of the dominant crop controlling the hydrologic response of a watershed. Hence, the suitability of SWAT in replicating the hydrology of paddy fields needs to be verified. Rice paddy fields are subjected to flooding method of irrigation, while the irrigation subroutines in SWAT are developed to simulate crops grown under non flooding conditions. Moreover irrigation is represented well in field scale models, while it is poorly represented within watershed models like SWAT. Reliable simulation of flooding method of irrigation and hydrology of the fields will assist in effective water resources management of rice paddy fields which are one of the major consumers of surface and ground water resources. The current study attempts to modify the irrigation subroutine in SWAT so as to simulate flooded irrigation condition. A field water balance study was conducted on representative fields located within Gadana, a subbasin located in Tamil Nadu (southern part of India) and dominated by rice paddy based irrigation systems. The water balance of irrigated paddy fields simulated with SWAT was compared with the water balance derived by rice paddy based crop growth model named ORYZA. The variation in water levels along with the soil moisture variation predicted by SWAT was evaluated with respect to the estimates derived from ORYZA. The water levels were further validated with field based water balance measurements taken on a daily scale. It was observed that the modified irrigation subroutine was able to simulate irrigation of rice paddy within SWAT in a realistic way compared to the existing method.

Science in the Public Sphere: Greater Sage-grouse Conservation Planning from a Transdisciplinary Perspective

USGS Publications Warehouse

Torregrosa, Alicia; Casazza, Michael L.; Caldwell, Margaret R.; Mathiasmeier, Teresa A.; Morgan, Peter M.; Overton, Cory T.

2010-01-01

Integration of scientific data and adaptive management techniques is critical to the success of species conservation, however, there are uncertainties about effective methods of knowledge exchange between scientists and decisionmakers. The conservation planning and implementation process for Greater Sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus; ) in the Mono Basin, Calif. region, was used as a case study to observe the exchange of scientific information among stakeholders with differing perspectives; resource manager, scientist, public official, rancher, and others. The collaborative development of a risk-simulation model was explored as a tool to transfer knowledge between stakeholders and inform conservation planning and management decisions. Observations compiled using a transdisciplinary approach were used to compare the exchange of information during the collaborative model development and more traditional interactions such as scientist-led presentations at stakeholder meetings. Lack of congruence around knowledge needs and prioritization led to insufficient commitment to completely implement the risk-simulation model. Ethnographic analysis of the case study suggests that further application of epistemic community theory, which posits a strong boundary condition on knowledge transfer, could help support application of risk simulation models in conservation-planning efforts within similarly complex social and bureaucratic landscapes.

Towards thresholds of disaster management performance under demographic change: exploring functional relationships using agent-based modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dressler, Gunnar; Müller, Birgit; Frank, Karin; Kuhlicke, Christian

2016-10-01

Effective disaster management is a core feature for the protection of communities against natural disasters such as floods. Disaster management organizations (DMOs) are expected to contribute to ensuring this protection. However, what happens when their resources to cope with a flood are at stake or the intensity and frequency of the event exceeds their capacities? Many cities in the Free State of Saxony, Germany, were strongly hit by several floods in the last years and are additionally challenged by demographic change, with an ageing society and out-migration leading to population shrinkage in many parts of Saxony. Disaster management, which is mostly volunteer-based in Germany, is particularly affected by this change, leading to a loss of members. We propose an agent-based simulation model that acts as a "virtual lab" to explore the impact of various changes on disaster management performance. Using different scenarios we examine the impact of changes in personal resources of DMOs, their access to operation relevant information, flood characteristics as well as differences between geographic regions. A loss of DMOs and associated manpower caused by demographic change has the most profound impact on the performance. Especially in rural, upstream regions population decline in combination with very short lead times can put disaster management performance at risk.

The Modeling and Simulation Catalog for Discovery, Knowledge and Reuse

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stone, George F. III; Greenberg, Brandi; Daehler-Wilking, Richard; Hunt, Steven

2011-01-01

The DoD M&S Steering Committee has noted that the current DoD and Service's modeling and simulation resource repository (MSRR) services are not up-to-date limiting their value to the using communities. However, M&S leaders and managers also determined that the Department needs a functional M&S registry card catalog to facilitate M&S tool and data visibility to support M&S activities across the DoD. The M&S Catalog will discover and access M&S metadata maintained at nodes distributed across DoD networks in a centrally managed, decentralized process that employs metadata collection and management. The intent is to link information stores, precluding redundant location updating. The M&S Catalog uses a standard metadata schemas based on the DoD's Net-Centric Data Strategy Community of Interest metadata specification. The Air Force, Navy and OSD (CAPE) have provided initial information to participating DoD nodes, but plans on the horizon are being made to bring in hundreds of source providers.

A methodology towards virtualisation-based high performance simulation platform supporting multidisciplinary design of complex products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ren, Lei; Zhang, Lin; Tao, Fei; (Luke) Zhang, Xiaolong; Luo, Yongliang; Zhang, Yabin

2012-08-01

Multidisciplinary design of complex products leads to an increasing demand for high performance simulation (HPS) platforms. One great challenge is how to achieve high efficient utilisation of large-scale simulation resources in distributed and heterogeneous environments. This article reports a virtualisation-based methodology to realise a HPS platform. This research is driven by the issues concerning large-scale simulation resources deployment and complex simulation environment construction, efficient and transparent utilisation of fine-grained simulation resources and high reliable simulation with fault tolerance. A framework of virtualisation-based simulation platform (VSIM) is first proposed. Then the article investigates and discusses key approaches in VSIM, including simulation resources modelling, a method to automatically deploying simulation resources for dynamic construction of system environment, and a live migration mechanism in case of faults in run-time simulation. Furthermore, the proposed methodology is applied to a multidisciplinary design system for aircraft virtual prototyping and some experiments are conducted. The experimental results show that the proposed methodology can (1) significantly improve the utilisation of fine-grained simulation resources, (2) result in a great reduction in deployment time and an increased flexibility for simulation environment construction and (3)achieve fault tolerant simulation.

Application of multiphase modelling for vortex occurrence in vertical pump intake - a review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samsudin, M. L.; Munisamy, K. M.; Thangaraju, S. K.

2015-09-01

Vortex formation within pump intake is one of common problems faced for power plant cooling water system. This phenomenon, categorised as surface and sub-surface vortices, can lead to several operational problems and increased maintenance costs. Physical model study was recommended from published guidelines but proved to be time and resource consuming. Hence, the use of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) is an attractive alternative in managing the problem. At the early stage, flow analysis was conducted using single phase simulation and found to find good agreement with the observation from physical model study. With the development of computers, multiphase simulation found further enhancement in obtaining accurate results for representing air entrainment and sub-surface vortices which were earlier not well predicted from the single phase simulation. The purpose of this paper is to describe the application of multiphase modelling with CFD analysis for investigating vortex formation for a vertically inverted pump intake. In applying multiphase modelling, there ought to be a balance between the acceptable usage for computational time and resources and the degree of accuracy and realism in the results as expected from the analysis.

Stochastic Hybrid Systems Modeling and Middleware-enabled DDDAS for Next-generation US Air Force Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-03-30

experimental evaluations for hosting DDDAS-like applications in public cloud infrastructures . Finally, we report on ongoing work towards using the DDDAS...developed and their experimental evaluations for hosting DDDAS-like applications in public cloud infrastructures . Finally, we report on ongoing work towards...Dynamic resource management, model learning, simulation-based optimizations, cloud infrastructures for DDDAS applications. I. INTRODUCTION Critical cyber

Defense Resource Management Studies: Introduction to Capability and Acquisition Planning Processes

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-08-01

interchangeable and useful in a common contextual framework . Currently, both simulations use a common scenario, the same fictitious country, and...culture, legal framework , and institutions. • Incorporate Principles of Good Governance and Respect for Human Rights: Stress accountability and...Preparing for the assessments requires defining the missions to be analyzed; subdividing the mission definitions to provide a framework for analytic work

Visual Purple, the Next Generation Crisis Management Decision Training Tool

DTIC Science & Technology

2001-09-01

talents of professional Hollywood screenwriters during the scripting and writing process of the simulations. Additionally, cinematic techniques learned...cultural, and language experts for research development. Additionally, GTA provides country specific support in script writing and cinematic resources as...The result is an entirely new dimension of realism that traditional exercises often fail to capture. The scenario requires the participant to make the

Effects of streamflow diversion on a fish population: combining empirical data and individual-based models in a site-specific evaluation

Treesearch

Bret C. Harvey; Jason L. White; Rodney J. Nakamoto; Steven F. Railsback

2014-01-01

Resource managers commonly face the need to evaluate the ecological consequences of specific water diversions of small streams. We addressed this need by conducting 4 years of biophysical monitoring of stream reaches above and below a diversion and applying two individual-based models of salmonid fish that simulated different levels of behavioral complexity. The...

National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) Topic 2 Final Report: End-to-End Communication and Control System to Support Clean Energy Technologies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hudgins, Andrew P.; Carrillo, Ismael M.; Jin, Xin

This document is the final report of a two-year development, test, and demonstration project, 'Cohesive Application of Standards- Based Connected Devices to Enable Clean Energy Technologies.' The project was part of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) Integrated Network Testbed for Energy Grid Research and Technology (INTEGRATE) initiative hosted at Energy Systems Integration Facility (ESIF). This project demonstrated techniques to control distribution grid events using the coordination of traditional distribution grid devices and high-penetration renewable resources and demand response. Using standard communication protocols and semantic standards, the project examined the use cases of high/low distribution voltage, requests for volt-ampere-reactive (VAR)more » power support, and transactive energy strategies using Volttron. Open source software, written by EPRI to control distributed energy resources (DER) and demand response (DR), was used by an advanced distribution management system (ADMS) to abstract the resources reporting to a collection of capabilities rather than needing to know specific resource types. This architecture allows for scaling both horizontally and vertically. Several new technologies were developed and tested. Messages from the ADMS based on the common information model (CIM) were developed to control the DER and DR management systems. The OpenADR standard was used to help manage grid events by turning loads off and on. Volttron technology was used to simulate a homeowner choosing the price at which to enter the demand response market. Finally, the ADMS used newly developed algorithms to coordinate these resources with a capacitor bank and voltage regulator to respond to grid events.« less

Evaluation of water stress and groundwater storage using a global hydrological model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shiojiri, D.; Tanaka, K.; Tanaka, S.

2017-12-01

United Nations reported the number of people will reach 9.7 billion in 2050, and this rapid growth of population will increase water use. To prevent global water shortage, it is important to identify the problematic areas in order to maintain water resources sustainability. Moreover, groundwater availability is decreasing in some areas due to excessive groundwater extraction compared to the groundwater recharge capacity. The development of a hydrological model that can simulate the current status of the world's water resources represents an important tool to achieve sustainable water resources management. In this study, a global hydrological simulation is conducted at a 20km spatial resolution using the land surface model SiBUC, which is coupled to the river routing model HydroBEAM. In the river routing model, we evaluate water stress by comparing the excess of water demand with the river water demand. Areas with high water stress are seen in United States, India, and east part of China; however, for the case of Africa the overall water stress is zero. This could be because rain-fed agriculture is the norm in Africa and thus irrigation water demand is low, which affects water stress index. Sustainability of groundwater resources is also evaluated in the river routing model by setting a virtual groundwater tank. When the amount of groundwater withdrawal constantly exceeds groundwater recharge, the volume in the tank falls below zero and the area is regarded as unsustainable in terms of groundwater usage. Such areas are mostly seen in central United States, northeast China, the region between northwest India and Pakistan. In the simulation with SiBUC, the amount of groundwater recharge is assumed as the proportion of water that flows from the second to the third soil layer. This proportion will be estimated by comparing monthly variations of terrestrial water storage (TWS) derived from the observations of the GRACE satellite with the simulated TWS variations. From this comparison, the suitability of the simulated amount of groundwater will also assess.

Assessment of coastal management options by means of multilayered ecosystem models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nobre, Ana M.; Ferreira, João G.; Nunes, João P.; Yan, Xiaojun; Bricker, Suzanne; Corner, Richard; Groom, Steve; Gu, Haifeng; Hawkins, Anthony J. S.; Hutson, Rory; Lan, Dongzhao; Silva, João D. Lencart e.; Pascoe, Philip; Telfer, Trevor; Zhang, Xuelei; Zhu, Mingyuan

2010-03-01

This paper presents a multilayered ecosystem modelling approach that combines the simulation of the biogeochemistry of a coastal ecosystem with the simulation of the main forcing functions, such as catchment loading and aquaculture activities. This approach was developed as a tool for sustainable management of coastal ecosystems. A key feature is to simulate management scenarios that account for changes in multiple uses and enable assessment of cumulative impacts of coastal activities. The model was applied to a coastal zone in China with large aquaculture production and multiple catchment uses, and where management efforts to improve water quality are under way. Development scenarios designed in conjunction with local managers and aquaculture producers include the reduction of fish cages and treatment of wastewater. Despite the reduction in nutrient loading simulated in three different scenarios, inorganic nutrient concentrations in the bay were predicted to exceed the thresholds for poor quality defined by Chinese seawater quality legislation. For all scenarios there is still a Moderate High to High nutrient loading from the catchment, so further reductions might be enacted, together with additional decreases in fish cage culture. The model predicts that overall, shellfish production decreases by 10%-28% using any of these development scenarios, principally because shellfish growth is being sustained by the substances to be reduced for improvement of water quality. The model outcomes indicate that this may be counteracted by zoning of shellfish aquaculture at the ecosystem level in order to optimize trade-offs between productivity and environmental effects. The present case study exemplifies the value of multilayered ecosystem modelling as a tool for Integrated Coastal Zone Management and for the adoption of ecosystem approaches for marine resource management. This modelling approach can be applied worldwide, and may be particularly useful for the application of coastal management regulation, for instance in the implementation of the European Marine Strategy Framework Directive.

Soil and Land Resources Information System (SLISYS-Tarim) for Sustainable Management of River Oases along the Tarim River, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Othmanli, Hussein; Zhao, Chengyi; Stahr, Karl

2017-04-01

The Tarim River Basin is the largest continental basin in China. The region has extremely continental desert climate characterized by little rainfall <50 mm/a and high potential evaporation >3000 mm/a. The climate change is affecting severely the basin causing soil salinization, water shortage, and regression in crop production. Therefore, a Soil and Land Resources Information System (SLISYS-Tarim) for the regional simulation of crop yield production in the basin was developed. The SLISYS-Tarim consists of a database and an agro-ecological simulation model EPIC (Environmental Policy Integrated Climate). The database comprises relational tables including information about soils, terrain conditions, land use, and climate. The soil data implicate information of 50 soil profiles which were dug, analyzed, described and classified in order to characterize the soils in the region. DEM data were integrated with geological maps to build a digital terrain structure. Remote sensing data of Landsat images were applied for soil mapping, and for land use and land cover classification. An additional database for climate data, land management and crop information were linked to the system, too. Construction of the SLISYS-Tarim database was accomplished by integrating and overlaying the recommended thematic maps within environment of the geographic information system (GIS) to meet the data standard of the global and national SOTER digital database. This database forms appropriate input- and output data for the crop modelling with the EPIC model at various scales in the Tarim Basin. The EPIC model was run for simulating cotton production under a constructed scenario characterizing the current management practices, soil properties and climate conditions. For the EPIC model calibration, some parameters were adjusted so that the modeled cotton yield fits to the measured yield on the filed scale. The validation of the modeling results was achieved in a later step based on remote sensing data. The simulated cotton yield varied according to field management, soil type and salinity level, where soil salinity was the main limiting factor. Furthermore, the calibrated and validated EPIC model was run under several scenarios of climate conditions and land management practices to estimate the effect of climate change on cotton production and sustainability of agriculture systems in the basin. The application of SLISYS-Tarim showed that this database can be a suitable framework for storage and retrieval of soil and terrain data at various scales. The simulation with the EPIC model can assess the impact of climate change and management strategies. Therefore, SLISYS-Tarim can be a good tool for regional planning and serve the decision support system on regional and national scale.

Dynamic Staffing and Rescheduling in Software Project Management: A Hybrid Approach.

PubMed

Ge, Yujia; Xu, Bin

2016-01-01

Resource allocation could be influenced by various dynamic elements, such as the skills of engineers and the growth of skills, which requires managers to find an effective and efficient tool to support their staffing decision-making processes. Rescheduling happens commonly and frequently during the project execution. Control options have to be made when new resources are added or tasks are changed. In this paper we propose a software project staffing model considering dynamic elements of staff productivity with a Genetic Algorithm (GA) and Hill Climbing (HC) based optimizer. Since a newly generated reschedule dramatically different from the initial schedule could cause an obvious shifting cost increase, our rescheduling strategies consider both efficiency and stability. The results of real world case studies and extensive simulation experiments show that our proposed method is effective and could achieve comparable performance to other heuristic algorithms in most cases.

Post-game analysis: An initial experiment for heuristic-based resource management in concurrent systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yan, Jerry C.

1987-01-01

In concurrent systems, a major responsibility of the resource management system is to decide how the application program is to be mapped onto the multi-processor. Instead of using abstract program and machine models, a generate-and-test framework known as 'post-game analysis' that is based on data gathered during program execution is proposed. Each iteration consists of (1) (a simulation of) an execution of the program; (2) analysis of the data gathered; and (3) the proposal of a new mapping that would have a smaller execution time. These heuristics are applied to predict execution time changes in response to small perturbations applied to the current mapping. An initial experiment was carried out using simple strategies on 'pipeline-like' applications. The results obtained from four simple strategies demonstrated that for this kind of application, even simple strategies can produce acceptable speed-up with a small number of iterations.

DEEP-SaM - Energy-Efficient Provisioning Policies for Computing Environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bodenstein, Christian; Püschel, Tim; Hedwig, Markus; Neumann, Dirk

The cost of electricity for datacenters is a substantial operational cost that can and should be managed, not only for saving energy, but also due to the ecologic commitment inherent to power consumption. Often, pursuing this goal results in chronic underutilization of resources, a luxury most resource providers do not have in light of their corporate commitments. This work proposes, formalizes and numerically evaluates DEEP-Sam, for clearing provisioning markets, based on the maximization of welfare, subject to utility-level dependant energy costs and customer satisfaction levels. We focus specifically on linear power models, and the implications of the inherent fixed costs related to energy consumption of modern datacenters and cloud environments. We rigorously test the model by running multiple simulation scenarios and evaluate the results critically. We conclude with positive results and implications for long-term sustainable management of modern datacenters.

High-performance scientific computing in the cloud

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jorissen, Kevin; Vila, Fernando; Rehr, John

2011-03-01

Cloud computing has the potential to open up high-performance computational science to a much broader class of researchers, owing to its ability to provide on-demand, virtualized computational resources. However, before such approaches can become commonplace, user-friendly tools must be developed that hide the unfamiliar cloud environment and streamline the management of cloud resources for many scientific applications. We have recently shown that high-performance cloud computing is feasible for parallelized x-ray spectroscopy calculations. We now present benchmark results for a wider selection of scientific applications focusing on electronic structure and spectroscopic simulation software in condensed matter physics. These applications are driven by an improved portable interface that can manage virtual clusters and run various applications in the cloud. We also describe a next generation of cluster tools, aimed at improved performance and a more robust cluster deployment. Supported by NSF grant OCI-1048052.

Dynamic Staffing and Rescheduling in Software Project Management: A Hybrid Approach

PubMed Central

Ge, Yujia; Xu, Bin

2016-01-01

Resource allocation could be influenced by various dynamic elements, such as the skills of engineers and the growth of skills, which requires managers to find an effective and efficient tool to support their staffing decision-making processes. Rescheduling happens commonly and frequently during the project execution. Control options have to be made when new resources are added or tasks are changed. In this paper we propose a software project staffing model considering dynamic elements of staff productivity with a Genetic Algorithm (GA) and Hill Climbing (HC) based optimizer. Since a newly generated reschedule dramatically different from the initial schedule could cause an obvious shifting cost increase, our rescheduling strategies consider both efficiency and stability. The results of real world case studies and extensive simulation experiments show that our proposed method is effective and could achieve comparable performance to other heuristic algorithms in most cases. PMID:27285420

Innovative simulation strategies in education.

PubMed

Aebersold, Michelle; Tschannen, Dana; Bathish, Melissa

2012-01-01

The use of simulation in the undergraduate nursing curriculum is gaining popularity and is becoming a foundation of many nursing programs. The purpose of this paper is to highlight a new simulation teaching strategy, virtual reality (VR) simulation, which capitalizes on the technological skills of the new generation student. This small-scale pilot study focused on improving interpersonal skills in senior level nursing students using VR simulation. In this study, a repeated-measure design was used to evaluate the effectiveness of VR simulation on improving student's performance over a series of two VR scenarios. Using the Emergency Medicine Crisis Resource Management (EMCRM) tool, student performance was evaluated. Overall, the total EMCRM score improved but not significantly. The subscale areas of communication (P = .047, 95% CI: - 1.06, -.007) and professional behavior (P = .003, 95% CI: - 1.12, -.303) did show a significant improvement between the two scenario exposures. Findings from this study show the potential for virtual reality simulations to have an impact on nursing student performance.

Water resources sensitivity to the isolated effects of land use, water demand and climate change under 2 degree global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bisselink, Berny; Bernhard, Jeroen; de Roo, Ad

2017-04-01

One of the key impacts of global change are the future water resources. These water resources are influenced by changes in land use (LU), water demand (WD) and climate change. Recent developments in scenario modelling opened new opportunities for an integrated assessment. However, for identifying water resource management strategies it is helpful to focus on the isolated effects of possible changes in LU, WD and climate that may occur in the near future. In this work, we quantify the isolated contribution of LU, WD and climate to the integrated total water resources assuming a linear model behavior. An ensemble of five EURO-CORDEX RCP8.5 climate projections for the 31-year periods centered on the year of exceeding the global-mean temperature of 2 degree is used to drive the fully distributed hydrological model LISFLOOD for multiple river catchments in Europe. The JRC's Land Use Modelling Platform LUISA was used to obtain a detailed pan-European reference land use scenario until 2050. Water demand is estimated based on socio-economic (GDP, population estimates etc.), land use and climate projections as well. For each climate projection, four model runs have been performed including an integrated (LU, WD and climate) simulation and other three simulations to isolate the effect of LU, WD and climate. Changes relative to the baseline in terms of water resources indicators of the ensemble means of the 2 degree warming period and their associated uncertainties will reveal the integrated and isolated effect of LU, WD and climate change on water resources.

SLA-based optimisation of virtualised resource for multi-tier web applications in cloud data centres

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bi, Jing; Yuan, Haitao; Tie, Ming; Tan, Wei

2015-10-01

Dynamic virtualised resource allocation is the key to quality of service assurance for multi-tier web application services in cloud data centre. In this paper, we develop a self-management architecture of cloud data centres with virtualisation mechanism for multi-tier web application services. Based on this architecture, we establish a flexible hybrid queueing model to determine the amount of virtual machines for each tier of virtualised application service environments. Besides, we propose a non-linear constrained optimisation problem with restrictions defined in service level agreement. Furthermore, we develop a heuristic mixed optimisation algorithm to maximise the profit of cloud infrastructure providers, and to meet performance requirements from different clients as well. Finally, we compare the effectiveness of our dynamic allocation strategy with two other allocation strategies. The simulation results show that the proposed resource allocation method is efficient in improving the overall performance and reducing the resource energy cost.

Updated System-Availability and Resource-Allocation Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Viterna, Larry

2004-01-01

A second version of the Availability, Cost and Resource Allocation (ACARA) computer program has become available. The first version was reported in an earlier tech brief. To recapitulate: ACARA analyzes the availability, mean-time-between-failures of components, life-cycle costs, and scheduling of resources of a complex system of equipment. ACARA uses a statistical Monte Carlo method to simulate the failure and repair of components while complying with user-specified constraints on spare parts and resources. ACARA evaluates the performance of the system on the basis of a mathematical model developed from a block-diagram representation. The previous version utilized the MS-DOS operating system and could not be run by use of the most recent versions of the Windows operating system. The current version incorporates the algorithms of the previous version but is compatible with Windows and utilizes menus and a file-management approach typical of Windows-based software.