Expected Utility Distributions for Flexible, Contingent Execution

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bresina, John L.; Washington, Richard

2000-01-01

This paper presents a method for using expected utility distributions in the execution of flexible, contingent plans. A utility distribution maps the possible start times of an action to the expected utility of the plan suffix starting with that action. The contingent plan encodes a tree of possible courses of action and includes flexible temporal constraints and resource constraints. When execution reaches a branch point, the eligible option with the highest expected utility at that point in time is selected. The utility distributions make this selection sensitive to the runtime context, yet still efficient. Our approach uses predictions of action duration uncertainty as well as expectations of resource usage and availability to determine when an action can execute and with what probability. Execution windows and probabilities inevitably change as execution proceeds, but such changes do not invalidate the cached utility distributions, thus, dynamic updating of utility information is minimized.

The scale-dependent impact of wolf predation risk on resource selection by three sympatric ungulates.

PubMed

Kittle, Andrew M; Fryxell, John M; Desy, Glenn E; Hamr, Joe

2008-08-01

Resource selection is a fundamental ecological process impacting population dynamics and ecosystem structure. Understanding which factors drive selection is vital for effective species- and landscape-level management. We used resource selection probability functions (RSPFs) to study the influence of two forms of wolf (Canis lupus) predation risk, snow conditions and habitat variables on white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus), elk (Cervus elaphus) and moose (Alces alces) resource selection in central Ontario's mixed forest French River-Burwash ecosystem. Direct predation risk was defined as the frequency of a predator's occurrence across the landscape and indirect predation risk as landscape features associated with a higher risk of predation. Models were developed for two winters, each at two spatial scales, using a combination of GIS-derived and ground-measured data. Ungulate presence was determined from snow track transects in 64 16- and 128 1-km(2) resource units, and direct predation risk from GPS radio collar locations of four adjacent wolf packs. Ungulates did not select resources based on the avoidance of areas of direct predation risk at any scale, and instead exhibited selection patterns that tradeoff predation risk minimization with forage and/or mobility requirements. Elk did not avoid indirect predation risk, while both deer and moose exhibited inconsistent responses to this risk. Direct predation risk was more important to models than indirect predation risk but overall, abiotic topographical factors were most influential. These results indicate that wolf predation risk does not limit ungulate habitat use at the scales investigated and that responses to spatial sources of predation risk are complex, incorporating a variety of anti-predator behaviours. Moose resource selection was influenced less by snow conditions than cover type, particularly selection for dense forest, whereas deer showed the opposite pattern. Temporal and spatial scale influenced resource selection by all ungulate species, underlining the importance of incorporating scale into resource selection studies.

Hybrid maize breeding with doubled haploids: I. One-stage versus two-stage selection for testcross performance.

PubMed

Longin, C Friedrich H; Utz, H Friedrich; Reif, Jochen C; Schipprack, Wolfgang; Melchinger, Albrecht E

2006-03-01

Optimum allocation of resources is of fundamental importance for the efficiency of breeding programs. The objectives of our study were to (1) determine the optimum allocation for the number of lines and test locations in hybrid maize breeding with doubled haploids (DHs) regarding two optimization criteria, the selection gain deltaG(k) and the probability P(k) of identifying superior genotypes, (2) compare both optimization criteria including their standard deviations (SDs), and (3) investigate the influence of production costs of DHs on the optimum allocation. For different budgets, number of finally selected lines, ratios of variance components, and production costs of DHs, the optimum allocation of test resources under one- and two-stage selection for testcross performance with a given tester was determined by using Monte Carlo simulations. In one-stage selection, lines are tested in field trials in a single year. In two-stage selection, optimum allocation of resources involves evaluation of (1) a large number of lines in a small number of test locations in the first year and (2) a small number of the selected superior lines in a large number of test locations in the second year, thereby maximizing both optimization criteria. Furthermore, to have a realistic chance of identifying a superior genotype, the probability P(k) of identifying superior genotypes should be greater than 75%. For budgets between 200 and 5,000 field plot equivalents, P(k) > 75% was reached only for genotypes belonging to the best 5% of the population. As the optimum allocation for P(k)(5%) was similar to that for deltaG(k), the choice of the optimization criterion was not crucial. The production costs of DHs had only a minor effect on the optimum number of locations and on values of the optimization criteria.

More attention when speaking: does it help or does it hurt?

PubMed

Nozari, Nazbanou; Thompson-Schill, Sharon L

2013-11-01

Paying selective attention to a word in a multi-word utterance results in a decreased probability of error on that word (benefit), but an increased probability of error on the other words (cost). We ask whether excitation of the prefrontal cortex helps or hurts this cost. One hypothesis (the resource hypothesis) predicts a decrease in the cost due to the deployment of more attentional resources, while another (the focus hypothesis) predicts even greater costs due to further fine-tuning of selective attention. Our results are more consistent with the focus hypothesis: prefrontal stimulation caused a reliable increase in the benefit and a marginal increase in the cost of selective attention. To ensure that the effects are due to changes to the prefrontal cortex, we provide two checks: We show that the pattern of results is quite different if, instead, the primary motor cortex is stimulated. We also show that the stimulation-related benefits in the verbal task correlate with the stimulation-related benefits in an N-back task, which is known to tap into a prefrontal function. Our results shed light on how selective attention affects language production, and more generally, on how selective attention affects production of a sequence over time. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mapping the Relative Probability of Common Toad Occurrence in Terrestrial Lowland Farm Habitat in the United Kingdom.

PubMed

Salazar, Rosie D; Montgomery, Robert A; Thresher, Sarah E; Macdonald, David W

2016-01-01

The common toad (Bufo bufo) is of increasing conservation concern in the United Kingdom (UK) due to dramatic population declines occurring in the past century. Many of these population declines coincided with reductions in both terrestrial and aquatic habitat availability and quality and have been primarily attributed to the effect of agricultural land conversion (of natural and semi-natural habitats to arable and pasture fields) and pond drainage. However, there is little evidence available to link habitat availability with common toad population declines, especially when examined at a broad landscape scale. Assessing such patterns of population declines at the landscape scale, for instance, require an understanding of how this species uses terrestrial habitat. We intensively studied the terrestrial resource selection of a large population of common toads in Oxfordshire, England, UK. Adult common toads were fitted with passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags to allow detection in the terrestrial environment using a portable PIT antenna once toads left the pond and before going into hibernation (April/May-October 2012 and 2013). We developed a population-level resource selection function (RSF) to assess the relative probability of toad occurrence in the terrestrial environment by collecting location data for 90 recaptured toads. The predicted relative probability of toad occurrence for this population was greatest in wooded habitat near to water bodies; relative probability of occurrence declined dramatically > 50 m from these habitats. Toads also tended to select habitat near to their breeding pond and toad occurrence was negatively related to urban environments.

An Inventory and Classification of Coastal Wetlands of the Laurentian Great Lakes

EPA Science Inventory

This inventory and classification of DRM/riverine coastal wetlands is needed for doing a probability based selection for assessments of this valued aquatic resource across large areas, e.g., by states for 305B reports of coastal wetland condition.

When violence pays: a cost-benefit analysis of aggressive behavior in animals and humans.

PubMed

Georgiev, Alexander V; Klimczuk, Amanda C E; Traficonte, Daniel M; Maestripieri, Dario

2013-07-18

An optimization analysis of human behavior from a comparative perspective can improve our understanding of the adaptiveness of human nature. Intra-specific competition for resources provides the main selective pressure for the evolution of violent aggression toward conspecifics, and variation in the fitness benefits and costs of aggression can account for inter-specific and inter-individual differences in aggressiveness. When aggression reflects competition for resources, its benefits vary in relation to the characteristics of the resources (their intrinsic value, abundance, spatial distribution, and controllability) while its costs vary in relation to the characteristics of organisms and how they fight (which, in turn, affects the extent to which aggression entails risk of physical injury or death, energetic depletion, exposure to predation, psychological and physiological stress, or damage to social relationships). Humans are a highly aggressive species in comparison to other animals, probably as a result of an unusually high benefit-to-cost ratio for intra-specific aggression. This conclusion is supported by frequent and widespread occurrence of male-male coalitionary killing and by male-female sexual coercion. Sex differences in violent aggression in humans and other species probably evolved by sexual selection and reflect different optimal competitive strategies for males and females.

Large scale rainfall diversity and satellite propagation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lin, H. P.; Vogel, W. J.

1992-01-01

From the NOAA 15 minute precipitation file for the U.S., data was selected for 128 stations covering a 17 year period and the probability of simultaneous rainfall at several stations was calculated. We assumed that the chosen stations were located in separate beams of a multi-beam communications satellite with shared fade mitigation resources. In order to estimate the demands made on these resources, we determined the number of stations at which rainfall rates exceeded 10 to 40 mm/hr. We found a 1 percent probability that at least 5 of the 128 stations have rain at or over 10 mm/hr in any 15 minute interval. Rain at 2 stations was found to correlate over distances less than about 600 miles.

MOUNT ZIRKEL WILDERNESS AND VICINITY, COLORADO.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Snyder, George L.; Patten, Lowell L.

1984-01-01

Several areas of metallic and nonmetallic mineralization have been identified from surface occurrences within the Mount Zirkel Wilderness and vicinity, Colorado. Three areas of probable copper-lead-zinc-silver-gold resource potential, two areas of probable chrome-platinum resource potential, four areas of probable uranium-thorium resource potential, two areas of probable molybdenum resource potential, and one area of probable fluorspar potential were identified. No potential for fossil fuel or geothermal resources was identified.

Space industrialization. Volume 1: An overview. [Marekt research, technology assessment, and economic impact

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1978-01-01

Benefits accruing to the United States from the investment of public and private resources in space industralization are projected. The future was examined to characterize resource pressures, requirements and supply (population, energy, materials, food). The backdrop of probable events, attitudes, and trends against which space industralization will evolve were postulated. The opportunities for space industry that would benefit earth were compiled and screened against terrestrial alternatives. A cursory market survey was conducted for the selected services and products provided by these initiatives.

Multilevel selection in a resource-based model.

PubMed

Ferreira, Fernando Fagundes; Campos, Paulo R A

2013-07-01

In the present work we investigate the emergence of cooperation in a multilevel selection model that assumes limiting resources. Following the work by R. J. Requejo and J. Camacho [Phys. Rev. Lett. 108, 038701 (2012)], the interaction among individuals is initially ruled by a prisoner's dilemma (PD) game. The payoff matrix may change, influenced by the resource availability, and hence may also evolve to a non-PD game. Furthermore, one assumes that the population is divided into groups, whose local dynamics is driven by the payoff matrix, whereas an intergroup competition results from the nonuniformity of the growth rate of groups. We study the probability that a single cooperator can invade and establish in a population initially dominated by defectors. Cooperation is strongly favored when group sizes are small. We observe the existence of a critical group size beyond which cooperation becomes counterselected. Although the critical size depends on the parameters of the model, it is seen that a saturation value for the critical group size is achieved. The results conform to the thought that the evolutionary history of life repeatedly involved transitions from smaller selective units to larger selective units.

When Violence Pays: A Cost-Benefit Analysis of Aggressive Behavior in Animals and Humans

PubMed Central

Georgiev, Alexander V.; Klimczuk, Amanda C. E.; Traficonte, Daniel M.

2013-01-01

An optimization analysis of human behavior from a comparative perspective can improve our understanding of the adaptiveness of human nature. Intra-specific competition for resources provides the main selective pressure for the evolution of violent aggression toward conspecifics, and variation in the fitness benefits and costs of aggression can account for inter-specific and inter-individual differences in aggressiveness. When aggression reflects competition for resources, its benefits vary in relation to the characteristics of the resources (their intrinsic value, abundance, spatial distribution, and controllability) while its costs vary in relation to the characteristics of organisms and how they fight (which, in turn, affects the extent to which aggression entails risk of physical injury or death, energetic depletion, exposure to predation, psychological and physiological stress, or damage to social relationships). Humans are a highly aggressive species in comparison to other animals, probably as a result of an unusually high benefit-to-cost ratio for intra-specific aggression. This conclusion is supported by frequent and widespread occurrence of male-male coalitionary killing and by male-female sexual coercion. Sex differences in violent aggression in humans and other species probably evolved by sexual selection and reflect different optimal competitive strategies for males and females. PMID:23864299

Summer habitat selection by Dall’s sheep in Wrangell-St. Elias National Park and Preserve, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Roffler, Gretchen H.; Adams, Layne G.; Hebblewhite, Mark

2017-01-01

Sexual segregation occurs frequently in sexually dimorphic species, and it may be influenced by differential habitat requirements between sexes or by social or evolutionary mechanisms that maintain separation of sexes regardless of habitat selection. Understanding the degree of sex-specific habitat specialization is important for management of wildlife populations and the design of monitoring and research programs. Using mid-summer aerial survey data for Dall’s sheep (Ovis dalli dalli) in southern Alaska during 1983–2011, we assessed differences in summer habitat selection by sex and reproductive status at the landscape scale in Wrangell-St. Elias National Park and Preserve (WRST). Males and females were highly segregated socially, as were females with and without young. Resource selection function (RSF) models containing rugged terrain, intermediate values of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and open landcover types best explained resource selection by each sex, female reproductive classes, and all sheep combined. For male and all female models, most coefficients were similar, suggesting little difference in summer habitat selection between sexes at the landscape scale. A combined RSF model therefore may be used to predict the relative probability of resource selection by Dall’s sheep in WRST regardless of sex or reproductive status.

Solving the Puzzle of Metastasis: The Evolution of Cell Migration in Neoplasms

PubMed Central

Chen, Jun; Sprouffske, Kathleen; Huang, Qihong; Maley, Carlo C.

2011-01-01

Background Metastasis represents one of the most clinically important transitions in neoplastic progression. The evolution of metastasis is a puzzle because a metastatic clone is at a disadvantage in competition for space and resources with non-metastatic clones in the primary tumor. Metastatic clones waste some of their reproductive potential on emigrating cells with little chance of establishing metastases. We suggest that resource heterogeneity within primary tumors selects for cell migration, and that cell emigration is a by-product of that selection. Methods and Findings We developed an agent-based model to simulate the evolution of neoplastic cell migration. We simulated the essential dynamics of neoangiogenesis and blood vessel occlusion that lead to resource heterogeneity in neoplasms. We observed the probability and speed of cell migration that evolves with changes in parameters that control the degree of spatial and temporal resource heterogeneity. Across a broad range of realistic parameter values, increasing degrees of spatial and temporal heterogeneity select for the evolution of increased cell migration and emigration. Conclusions We showed that variability in resources within a neoplasm (e.g. oxygen and nutrients provided by angiogenesis) is sufficient to select for cells with high motility. These cells are also more likely to emigrate from the tumor, which is the first step in metastasis and the key to the puzzle of metastasis. Thus, we have identified a novel potential solution to the puzzle of metastasis. PMID:21556134

Selection of forage-fish schools by Murrelets and Tufted Puffins in Prince William Sound, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ostrand, William D.; Coyle, Kenneth O.; Drew, Gary S.; Maniscalco, John M.; Irons, David B.

1998-01-01

We collected hydroacoustic and bird-observation data simultaneously along transects in three areas in Prince William Sound, Alaska, 21 July-11 August 1995. The probability of the association of fish schools with Marbled Murrelets (Brachyramphus marmoratus) and Tufted Puffins (Fratercula cirrhata) was determined through the use of resource selection functions based on logistic regression. Mean (± SD) group sizes were small for both species, 1.7 ± 1.1 and 1.2 ± 0.7 for Marbled Murrelets and Tufted Puffins, respectively. Oceanographically, all study areas were stratified with synchronous thermo- and pycnoclines (a water layer of increasing temperature and density, respectively, with increasing depth). Our analysis indicated that Tufted Puffins selected fish schools near their colony, whereas Marbled Murrelets selected smaller, denser fish schools in shallower habitats. We suggest that murrelets selected shallower habitats in response to lower maximum diving depths than puffins. Small feeding-groups size is discussed in terms of foraging theory and as a consequence of dispersed, low density food resources.

Use and interpretation of logistic regression in habitat-selection studies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Keating, Kim A.; Cherry, Steve

2004-01-01

 Logistic regression is an important tool for wildlife habitat-selection studies, but the method frequently has been misapplied due to an inadequate understanding of the logistic model, its interpretation, and the influence of sampling design. To promote better use of this method, we review its application and interpretation under 3 sampling designs: random, case-control, and use-availability. Logistic regression is appropriate for habitat use-nonuse studies employing random sampling and can be used to directly model the conditional probability of use in such cases. Logistic regression also is appropriate for studies employing case-control sampling designs, but careful attention is required to interpret results correctly. Unless bias can be estimated or probability of use is small for all habitats, results of case-control studies should be interpreted as odds ratios, rather than probability of use or relative probability of use. When data are gathered under a use-availability design, logistic regression can be used to estimate approximate odds ratios if probability of use is small, at least on average. More generally, however, logistic regression is inappropriate for modeling habitat selection in use-availability studies. In particular, using logistic regression to fit the exponential model of Manly et al. (2002:100) does not guarantee maximum-likelihood estimates, valid probabilities, or valid likelihoods. We show that the resource selection function (RSF) commonly used for the exponential model is proportional to a logistic discriminant function. Thus, it may be used to rank habitats with respect to probability of use and to identify important habitat characteristics or their surrogates, but it is not guaranteed to be proportional to probability of use. Other problems associated with the exponential model also are discussed. We describe an alternative model based on Lancaster and Imbens (1996) that offers a method for estimating conditional probability of use in use-availability studies. Although promising, this model fails to converge to a unique solution in some important situations. Further work is needed to obtain a robust method that is broadly applicable to use-availability studies.

Summer Resource Selection and Identification of Important Habitat Prior to Industrial Development for the Teshekpuk Caribou Herd in Northern Alaska

PubMed Central

Wilson, Ryan R.; Prichard, Alexander K.; Parrett, Lincoln S.; Person, Brian T.; Carroll, Geoffry M.; Smith, Melanie A.; Rea, Caryn L.; Yokel, David A.

2012-01-01

Many caribou (Rangifer tarandus) populations are declining worldwide in part due to disturbance from human development. Prior to human development, important areas of habitat should be identified to help managers minimize adverse effects. Resource selection functions can help identify these areas by providing a link between space use and landscape attributes. We estimated resource selection during five summer periods at two spatial scales for the Teshekpuk Caribou Herd in northern Alaska prior to industrial development to identify areas of high predicted use for the herd. Additionally, given the strong influence parturition and insect harassment have on space use, we determined how selection differed between parturient and non-parturient females, and between periods with and without insect harassment. We used location data acquired between 2004–2010 for 41 female caribou to estimate resource selection functions. Patterns of selection varied through summer but caribou consistently avoided patches of flooded vegetation and selected areas with a high density of sedge-grass meadow. Predicted use by parturient females during calving was almost entirely restricted to the area surrounding Teshekpuk Lake presumably due to high concentration of sedge-grass meadows, whereas selection for this area by non-parturient females was less strong. When insect harassment was low, caribou primarily selected the areas around Teshekpuk Lake but when it was high, caribou used areas having climates where insect abundance would be lower (i.e., coastal margins, gravel bars). Areas with a high probability of use were predominately restricted to the area surrounding Teshekpuk Lake except during late summer when high use areas were less aggregated because of more general patterns of resource selection. Planning is currently underway for establishing where oil and gas development can occur in the herd’s range, so our results provide land managers with information that can help predict and minimize impacts of development on the herd. PMID:23144932

Multilevel selection in a resource-based model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferreira, Fernando Fagundes; Campos, Paulo R. A.

2013-07-01

In the present work we investigate the emergence of cooperation in a multilevel selection model that assumes limiting resources. Following the work by R. J. Requejo and J. Camacho [Phys. Rev. Lett.0031-900710.1103/PhysRevLett.108.038701 108, 038701 (2012)], the interaction among individuals is initially ruled by a prisoner's dilemma (PD) game. The payoff matrix may change, influenced by the resource availability, and hence may also evolve to a non-PD game. Furthermore, one assumes that the population is divided into groups, whose local dynamics is driven by the payoff matrix, whereas an intergroup competition results from the nonuniformity of the growth rate of groups. We study the probability that a single cooperator can invade and establish in a population initially dominated by defectors. Cooperation is strongly favored when group sizes are small. We observe the existence of a critical group size beyond which cooperation becomes counterselected. Although the critical size depends on the parameters of the model, it is seen that a saturation value for the critical group size is achieved. The results conform to the thought that the evolutionary history of life repeatedly involved transitions from smaller selective units to larger selective units.

Forecasting the Depletion of Transboundary Groundwater Resources in Hyper-Arid Environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mazzoni, A.; Heggy, E.

2014-12-01

The increase in awareness about the overexploitation of transboundary groundwater resources in hyper-arid environments that occurred in the last decades has highlighted the need to better map, monitor and manage these resources. Climate change, economic and population growth are driving forces that put more pressure on these fragile but fundamental resources. The aim of our approach is to address the question of whether or not groundwater resources, especially non-renewable, could serve as "backstop" water resource during water shortage periods that would probably affect the drylands in the upcoming 100 years. The high dependence of arid regions on these resources requires prudent management to be able to preserve their fossil aquifers and exploit them in a more sustainable way. We use the NetLogo environment with the FAO Aquastat Database to evaluate if the actual trends of extraction, consumption and use of non-renewable groundwater resources would remain feasible with the future climate change impacts and the population growth scenarios. The case studies selected are three: the Nubian Sandstone Aquifer System, shared between Egypt, Libya, Sudan and Chad; the North Western Sahara Aquifer System, with Algeria, Tunisia and Libya and the Umm Radhuma Dammam Aquifer, in its central part, shared between Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Bahrain. The reason these three fossil aquifers were selected are manifold. First, they represent properly transboundary non-renewable groundwater resources, with all the implications that derive from this, i.e. the necessity of scientific and socio-political cooperation among riparians, the importance of monitoring the status of shared resources and the need to elaborate a shared management policy. Furthermore, each country is characterized by hyper-arid climatic conditions, which will be exacerbated in the next century by climate change and lead to probable severe water shortage periods. Together with climate change, the rate of population growth will be at unprecedented levels for these areas causing the water demand of these nations to grow largely. Our preliminary simulation results suggest that fossil aquifers cannot be used as a long-term solution for water shortage in hyper-arid environments. Aquifers in the Arabian Peninsula are forecasted to be depleted within decades.

Lessons learned from the dog genome.

PubMed

Wayne, Robert K; Ostrander, Elaine A

2007-11-01

Extensive genetic resources and a high-quality genome sequence position the dog as an important model species for understanding genome evolution, population genetics and genes underlying complex phenotypic traits. Newly developed genomic resources have expanded our understanding of canine evolutionary history and dog origins. Domestication involved genetic contributions from multiple populations of gray wolves probably through backcrossing. More recently, the advent of controlled breeding practices has segregated genetic variability into distinct dog breeds that possess specific phenotypic traits. Consequently, genome-wide association and selective sweep scans now allow the discovery of genes underlying breed-specific characteristics. The dog is finally emerging as a novel resource for studying the genetic basis of complex traits, including behavior.

Quantitative assessment of mineral resources with an application to petroleum geology

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harff, Jan; Davis, J.C.; Olea, R.A.

1992-01-01

The probability of occurrence of natural resources, such as petroleum deposits, can be assessed by a combination of multivariate statistical and geostatistical techniques. The area of study is partitioned into regions that are as homogeneous as possible internally while simultaneously as distinct as possible. Fisher's discriminant criterion is used to select geological variables that best distinguish productive from nonproductive localities, based on a sample of previously drilled exploratory wells. On the basis of these geological variables, each wildcat well is assigned to the production class (dry or producer in the two-class case) for which the Mahalanobis' distance from the observation to the class centroid is a minimum. Universal kriging is used to interpolate values of the Mahalanobis' distances to all locations not yet drilled. The probability that an undrilled locality belongs to the productive class can be found, using the kriging estimation variances to assess the probability of misclassification. Finally, Bayes' relationship can be used to determine the probability that an undrilled location will be a discovery, regardless of the production class in which it is placed. The method is illustrated with a study of oil prospects in the Lansing/Kansas City interval of western Kansas, using geological variables derived from well logs. ?? 1992 Oxford University Press.

Risk Decision Making Model for Reservoir Floodwater resources Utilization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, X.

2017-12-01

Floodwater resources utilization(FRU) can alleviate the shortage of water resources, but there are risks. In order to safely and efficiently utilize the floodwater resources, it is necessary to study the risk of reservoir FRU. In this paper, the risk rate of exceeding the design flood water level and the risk rate of exceeding safety discharge are estimated. Based on the principle of the minimum risk and the maximum benefit of FRU, a multi-objective risk decision making model for FRU is constructed. Probability theory and mathematical statistics method is selected to calculate the risk rate; C-D production function method and emergy analysis method is selected to calculate the risk benefit; the risk loss is related to flood inundation area and unit area loss; the multi-objective decision making problem of the model is solved by the constraint method. Taking the Shilianghe reservoir in Jiangsu Province as an example, the optimal equilibrium solution of FRU of the Shilianghe reservoir is found by using the risk decision making model, and the validity and applicability of the model are verified.

Evidence of climate change impact on stream low flow from the tropical mountain rainforest watershed in Hainan Island, China

Treesearch

Z. Zhou; Y. Ouyang; Z. Qiu; G. Zhou; M. Lin; Y. Li

2017-01-01

Stream low flow estimates are central to assessing climate change impact, water resource management, and ecosystem restoration. This study investigated the impacts of climate change upon stream low flows from a rainforest watershed in Jianfengling (JFL) Mountain, Hainan Island, China, using the low flow selection method as well as the frequency and probability analysis...

Orchestrating Semiotic Leaps from Tacit to Cultural Quantitative Reasoning--The Case of Anticipating Experimental Outcomes of a Quasi-Binomial Random Generator

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Abrahamson, Dor

2009-01-01

This article reports on a case study from a design-based research project that investigated how students make sense of the disciplinary tools they are taught to use, and specifically, what personal, interpersonal, and material resources support this process. The probability topic of binomial distribution was selected due to robust documentation of…

Using Geothermal Play Types as an Analogue for Estimating Potential Resource Size

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Terry, Rachel; Young, Katherine

Blind geothermal systems are becoming increasingly common as more geothermal fields are developed. Geothermal development is known to have high risk in the early stages of a project development because reservoir characteristics are relatively unknown until wells are drilled. Play types (or occurrence models) categorize potential geothermal fields into groups based on geologic characteristics. To aid in lowering exploration risk, these groups' reservoir characteristics can be used as analogues in new site exploration. The play type schemes used in this paper were Moeck and Beardsmore play types (Moeck et al. 2014) and Brophy occurrence models (Brophy et al. 2011). Operatingmore » geothermal fields throughout the world were classified based on their associated play type, and then reservoir characteristics data were catalogued. The distributions of these characteristics were plotted in histograms to develop probability density functions for each individual characteristic. The probability density functions can be used as input analogues in Monte Carlo estimations of resource potential for similar play types in early exploration phases. A spreadsheet model was created to estimate resource potential in undeveloped fields. The user can choose to input their own values for each reservoir characteristic or choose to use the probability distribution functions provided from the selected play type. This paper also addresses the United States Geological Survey's 1978 and 2008 assessment of geothermal resources by comparing their estimated values to reported values from post-site development. Information from the collected data was used in the comparison for thirty developed sites in the United States. No significant trends or suggestions for methodologies could be made by the comparison.« less

A Bayesian random effects discrete-choice model for resource selection: Population-level selection inference

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thomas, D.L.; Johnson, D.; Griffith, B.

2006-01-01

Modeling the probability of use of land units characterized by discrete and continuous measures, we present a Bayesian random-effects model to assess resource selection. This model provides simultaneous estimation of both individual- and population-level selection. Deviance information criterion (DIC), a Bayesian alternative to AIC that is sample-size specific, is used for model selection. Aerial radiolocation data from 76 adult female caribou (Rangifer tarandus) and calf pairs during 1 year on an Arctic coastal plain calving ground were used to illustrate models and assess population-level selection of landscape attributes, as well as individual heterogeneity of selection. Landscape attributes included elevation, NDVI (a measure of forage greenness), and land cover-type classification. Results from the first of a 2-stage model-selection procedure indicated that there is substantial heterogeneity among cow-calf pairs with respect to selection of the landscape attributes. In the second stage, selection of models with heterogeneity included indicated that at the population-level, NDVI and land cover class were significant attributes for selection of different landscapes by pairs on the calving ground. Population-level selection coefficients indicate that the pairs generally select landscapes with higher levels of NDVI, but the relationship is quadratic. The highest rate of selection occurs at values of NDVI less than the maximum observed. Results for land cover-class selections coefficients indicate that wet sedge, moist sedge, herbaceous tussock tundra, and shrub tussock tundra are selected at approximately the same rate, while alpine and sparsely vegetated landscapes are selected at a lower rate. Furthermore, the variability in selection by individual caribou for moist sedge and sparsely vegetated landscapes is large relative to the variability in selection of other land cover types. The example analysis illustrates that, while sometimes computationally intense, a Bayesian hierarchical discrete-choice model for resource selection can provide managers with 2 components of population-level inference: average population selection and variability of selection. Both components are necessary to make sound management decisions based on animal selection.

Evaluating shrub-associated spatial patterns of soil properties in a shrub-steppe ecosystem using multiple-variable geostatistics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Halvorson, J.J.; Smith, J.L.; Bolton, H. Jr.

1995-09-01

Geostatistics are often calculated for a single variable at a time, even though many natural phenomena are functions of several variables. The objective of this work was to demonstrate a nonparametric approach for assessing the spatial characteristics of multiple-variable phenomena. Specifically, we analyzed the spatial characteristics of resource islands in the soil under big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentala Nutt.), a dominant shrub in the intermountain western USA. For our example, we defined resource islands as a function of six soil variables representing concentrations of soil resources, populations of microorganisms, and soil microbial physiological variables. By collectively evaluating the indicator transformations ofmore » these individual variables, we created a new data set, termed a multiple-variable indicator transform or MVIT. Alternate MVITs were obtained by varying the selection criteria. Each MVIT was analyzed with variography to characterize spatial continuity, and with indicator kriging to predict the combined probability of their occurrence at unsampled locations in the landscape. Simple graphical analysis and variography demonstrated spatial dependence for all individual soil variables. Maps derived from ordinary kriging of MVITs suggested that the combined probabilities for encountering zones of above-median resources were greatest near big sagebrush. 51 refs., 5 figs., 1 tab.« less

Thorium resources of selected regions in the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Staatz, Mortimer Hay; Hall, R.B.; Macke, D.L.; Armbrustmacher, T.J.; Brownfield, I.K.

1980-01-01

Thorium resources have been assessed in a previous report entitled 'Principal thorium resources in the United States' (Staatz and others, 1979) for (1) veins in the larger districts, {2) massive carbonatites, {3) disseminated deposits, and {4) stream placers of North and South Carolina. This report is a sequel to that report and assesses thorium resources in {1) Florida beach placers, (2) Idaho stream placers, (3) veins and pipes in the Bokan Mountain district, Alaska, (4) carbonatite dikes, and {5) apatite-bearing iron deposits near Mineville, New York. Thorium resources for each of these categories are divided into reserves and probable potential resources. When data are available, each of these is then divided into the following cost categories: (1) the amount of ThO2 producible at a cost of less than $15/lb (per pound), (2) the amount producible at a cost of between $15 and $30/lb, and (3) the amount producible at a cost of between $30 and $50/1b. Beach placers of northern Florida have reserves of 16,200 short tons of ThO2 and probable potential resources of 5,120 tons of ThO2. These deposits are heavy-mineral placers that are mined for a variety of minerals--principally titanium minerals and zircon. The thorium-bearing mineral in these placers, monazite, makes up only a minor part of the heavy minerals. Therefore, production of ThO2 from these placers is dependent on the markets for other heavy minerals. Assuming the market for other heavy minerals to be the same as in 1978, then 98 percent of the ThO2 could be produced for less than $15/lb. If, however, no other coproducts were produced, then the cost of producing ThO2 would be greater than $50/1b. Stream placers containing thorium are found along many streams that drain the Idaho batholith, but most are too small to add significantly to the thorium resources. The resources of the five largest districts, each of which consists of at least several individual placers, have been tabulated. These districts are (1) Long Valley, (2) Bear Valley, (3) Burgdorf-Warren area, (4) Boise Basin, and (5) Ell City-Newsome area. These five areas have reserves of 10,100 short tons of ThO2 and probable potential resources of 10,300 tons. Long Valley contains about half the reserves--5,680 tons of ThO2--and all the probable potential resources. Monazite is the most important heavy mineral in all except the Bear Valley deposit. Here euxenite, although not quite as abundant as monazite, is a more important mineral, because it contains approximately 14.5 percent U3O8 in addition to 5 percent ThO2. Reserves in this placer amount to 1,605 short tons of ThO2 and 1,475 tons of U3O8. Eighty-two percent of the reserves and all of the probable potential resources can be produced at less than $30/1b of ThO2. The lower cost reserves are concentrated in the Long and Bear Valley areas. Here 64 percent of the ThO2 can be produced for less than $15/1b and another 29 percent of the ThO2 at between $15 and $30/lb. Sixteen veins and pipelike bodies are evaluated in the Bokan Mountain area of southeastern Alaska. The district contains other deposits that are too poorly exposed to make meaningful resource estimates. Reserves estimated in this district are 1,440 short tons of ThO2; probable potential resources amount to 2,320 tons of ThO2. About 99 percent of these resources are in deposits whose grade is at least 0.2 percent ThO2. In addition, these deposits contain reserves of 420 tons of U3O8 and probable potential resources of 820 tons of U3O8. Eighty-two percent of the reserves and probable potential resources can be produced at less than $15/lb. The average grade of this ore is 0.54 percent ThO2 and 0 15 percent U3O8. Some carbonatite dikes, although generally not as high grade as the veins, contain resources of thorium. Carbonatite dikes in the following six districts were investigated: (1) Wet Mountains, Colo.; (2) Powderhorn district, Colorado; (3) Mountain Pass area, California; (4) Bearpaw

Probability calculations for three-part mineral resource assessments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ellefsen, Karl J.

2017-06-27

Three-part mineral resource assessment is a methodology for predicting, in a specified geographic region, both the number of undiscovered mineral deposits and the amount of mineral resources in those deposits. These predictions are based on probability calculations that are performed with computer software that is newly implemented. Compared to the previous implementation, the new implementation includes new features for the probability calculations themselves and for checks of those calculations. The development of the new implementation lead to a new understanding of the probability calculations, namely the assumptions inherent in the probability calculations. Several assumptions strongly affect the mineral resource predictions, so it is crucial that they are checked during an assessment. The evaluation of the new implementation leads to new findings about the probability calculations,namely findings regarding the precision of the computations,the computation time, and the sensitivity of the calculation results to the input.

Streamflow distribution maps for the Cannon River drainage basin, southeast Minnesota, and the St. Louis River drainage basin, northeast Minnesota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, Erik A.; Sanocki, Chris A.; Lorenz, David L.; Jacobsen, Katrin E.

2017-12-27

Streamflow distribution maps for the Cannon River and St. Louis River drainage basins were developed by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Legislative-Citizen Commission on Minnesota Resources, to illustrate relative and cumulative streamflow distributions. The Cannon River was selected to provide baseline data to assess the effects of potential surficial sand mining, and the St. Louis River was selected to determine the effects of ongoing Mesabi Iron Range mining. Each drainage basin (Cannon, St. Louis) was subdivided into nested drainage basins: the Cannon River was subdivided into 152 nested drainage basins, and the St. Louis River was subdivided into 353 nested drainage basins. For each smaller drainage basin, the estimated volumes of groundwater discharge (as base flow) and surface runoff flowing into all surface-water features were displayed under the following conditions: (1) extreme low-flow conditions, comparable to an exceedance-probability quantile of 0.95; (2) low-flow conditions, comparable to an exceedance-probability quantile of 0.90; (3) a median condition, comparable to an exceedance-probability quantile of 0.50; and (4) a high-flow condition, comparable to an exceedance-probability quantile of 0.02.Streamflow distribution maps were developed using flow-duration curve exceedance-probability quantiles in conjunction with Soil-Water-Balance model outputs; both the flow-duration curve and Soil-Water-Balance models were built upon previously published U.S. Geological Survey reports. The selected streamflow distribution maps provide a proactive water management tool for State cooperators by illustrating flow rates during a range of hydraulic conditions. Furthermore, after the nested drainage basins are highlighted in terms of surface-water flows, the streamflows can be evaluated in the context of meeting specific ecological flows under different flow regimes and potentially assist with decisions regarding groundwater and surface-water appropriations. Presented streamflow distribution maps are foundational work intended to support the development of additional streamflow distribution maps that include statistical constraints on the selected flow conditions.

The association between long-term care setting and potentially preventable hospitalizations among older dual eligibles.

PubMed

Wysocki, Andrea; Kane, Robert L; Golberstein, Ezra; Dowd, Bryan; Lum, Terry; Shippee, Tetyana

2014-06-01

To compare the probability of experiencing a potentially preventable hospitalization (PPH) between older dual eligible Medicaid home and community-based service (HCBS) users and nursing home residents. Three years of Medicaid and Medicare claims data (2003-2005) from seven states, linked to area characteristics from the Area Resource File. A primary diagnosis of an ambulatory care sensitive condition on the inpatient hospital claim was used to identify PPHs. We used inverse probability of treatment weighting to mitigate the potential selection of HCBS versus nursing home use. The most frequent conditions accounting for PPHs were the same among the HCBS users and nursing home residents and included congestive heart failure, pneumonia, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, urinary tract infection, and dehydration. Compared to nursing home residents, elderly HCBS users had an increased probability of experiencing both a PPH and a non-PPH. HCBS users' increased probability for potentially and non-PPHs suggests a need for more proactive integration of medical and long-term care. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

Simulating future uncertainty to guide the selection of survey designs for long-term monitoring

USGS Publications Warehouse

Garman, Steven L.; Schweiger, E. William; Manier, Daniel J.; Gitzen, Robert A.; Millspaugh, Joshua J.; Cooper, Andrew B.; Licht, Daniel S.

2012-01-01

A goal of environmental monitoring is to provide sound information on the status and trends of natural resources (Messer et al. 1991, Theobald et al. 2007, Fancy et al. 2009). When monitoring observations are acquired by measuring a subset of the population of interest, probability sampling as part of a well-constructed survey design provides the most reliable and legally defensible approach to achieve this goal (Cochran 1977, Olsen et al. 1999, Schreuder et al. 2004; see Chapters 2, 5, 6, 7). Previous works have described the fundamentals of sample surveys (e.g. Hansen et al. 1953, Kish 1965). Interest in survey designs and monitoring over the past 15 years has led to extensive evaluations and new developments of sample selection methods (Stevens and Olsen 2004), of strategies for allocating sample units in space and time (Urquhart et al. 1993, Overton and Stehman 1996, Urquhart and Kincaid 1999), and of estimation (Lesser and Overton 1994, Overton and Stehman 1995) and variance properties (Larsen et al. 1995, Stevens and Olsen 2003) of survey designs. Carefully planned, “scientific” (Chapter 5) survey designs have become a standard in contemporary monitoring of natural resources. Based on our experience with the long-term monitoring program of the US National Park Service (NPS; Fancy et al. 2009; Chapters 16, 22), operational survey designs tend to be selected using the following procedures. For a monitoring indicator (i.e. variable or response), a minimum detectable trend requirement is specified, based on the minimum level of change that would result in meaningful change (e.g. degradation). A probability of detecting this trend (statistical power) and an acceptable level of uncertainty (Type I error; see Chapter 2) within a specified time frame (e.g. 10 years) are specified to ensure timely detection. Explicit statements of the minimum detectable trend, the time frame for detecting the minimum trend, power, and acceptable probability of Type I error (α) collectively form the quantitative sampling objective.

GRANITE FIORDS WILDERNESS STUDY AREA, ALASKA.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Berg, Henry C.; Pittman, Tom L.

1984-01-01

Mineral surveys of the Granite Fiords Wilderness study area revealed areas with probable and substantiated mineral-resource potential. In the northeastern sector, areas of probable and substantiated resource potential for gold, sivler, and base metals in small, locally high grade vein and disseminated deposits occur in recrystallized Mesozoic volcanic, sedimentary, and intrusive rocks. In the central part, areas of probable resource potential for gold, silver, copper, and zinc in disseminated and locally massive sulfide deposits occur in undated pelitic paragneiss roof pendants. A molybdenite-bearing quartz vein has been prospected in western Granite Fiords, and molybdenum also occurs along with other metals in veins in the northeastern sector and in geochemical samples collected from areas where there is probable resource potential for low-grade porphyry molybdenum deposits in several Cenozoic plutons. No energy resource potential was identified in the course of this study.

SESPE-FRAZIER, DIABLO, MATILIJA, DRY LAKES, SAWMILL-BADLANDS, CUYAMA, ANTIMONY, AND QUATAL ROADLESS AREAS, CALIFORNIA.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frizzell, Virgil A.; Hale, William N.

1984-01-01

The study area, consisting of the Sespe-Frazier, Diablo, Matilija, Dry Lakes, Sawmill-Badlands, Cuyama, Antimony, and Quatal Roadless Areas, occupies about 872 sq mi in the Los Padres National Forest, California. Studies indicate that the Sespe-Frazier Roadless Area contains demonstrated resources of gold, gypsum, phosphate and bentonite; deposits in the Cuyama Roadless Area have demonstrated resources of gypsum; mines in the Antimony Roadless Area have demonstrated resources of antimony, gold, silver, and marble; and the Quatal Roadless Area has demonstrated resources of bentonite. The Sespe-Frazier Roadless Area has substantiated potential for geothermal resources suitable for direct-heat purposes, probable and substantiated potential for oil and gas resources, and probable potential for gold resources. Small areas of probable resource potential for antimony and gold were identified in Antimony Roadless Area.

An Elementary Overview of the Selection of Materials for Service in Oxygen-Enriched Environments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davis, Samuel Eddie

2012-01-01

The process for selecting materials for use in oxygen or oxygen-enriched environments is one that continues to be investigated by many industries due to the importance to those industries of oxygen systems. There are several excellent resources available to assist oxygen systems design engineers and end-users, with the most comprehensive being ASTM MNL-36, Safe Use of Oxygen and Oxygen Systems: Handbook for Design, Operation and Maintenance, 2nd Edition. ASTM also makes available several standards for oxygen systems. However, the ASTM publications are extremely detailed, and typically designed for professionals who already possess a working knowledge of oxygen systems. No notable resource exists, whether an ASTM or other organizational publication, which can be used to educate engineers or technicians who have no prior knowledge of the nuances of oxygen system design and safety. This paper will fill the void for information needed by organizations that design or operate oxygen systems. The information in this paper is not new information, but is a concise and easily understood summary of selecting materials for oxygen systems. This paper will serve well as an employee s first introduction to oxygen system materials selection, and probably the employee s first introduction to ASTM.

Probabilistic Reasoning for Robustness in Automated Planning

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schaffer, Steven; Clement, Bradley; Chien, Steve

2007-01-01

A general-purpose computer program for planning the actions of a spacecraft or other complex system has been augmented by incorporating a subprogram that reasons about uncertainties in such continuous variables as times taken to perform tasks and amounts of resources to be consumed. This subprogram computes parametric probability distributions for time and resource variables on the basis of user-supplied models of actions and resources that they consume. The current system accepts bounded Gaussian distributions over action duration and resource use. The distributions are then combined during planning to determine the net probability distribution of each resource at any time point. In addition to a full combinatoric approach, several approximations for arriving at these combined distributions are available, including maximum-likelihood and pessimistic algorithms. Each such probability distribution can then be integrated to obtain a probability that execution of the plan under consideration would violate any constraints on the resource. The key idea is to use these probabilities of conflict to score potential plans and drive a search toward planning low-risk actions. An output plan provides a balance between the user s specified averseness to risk and other measures of optimality.

Women, men and public health-how the choice of normative theory affects resource allocation.

PubMed

Månsdotter, Anna; Lindholm, Lars; Ohman, Ann

2004-09-01

Women live longer than men in almost all countries, but men are more privileged in terms of power, influence, resources and probably morbidity. This investigation aims at illustrating how the choice of normative framework affects judgements about the fairness in these sex differences, and about desired societal change. The selected theories are welfare economics, health sector extra-welfarism, justice as fairness and feminist justice. By means of five Swedish proposals aiming at improving the population's health or "sex equity", facts and values are applied to resource allocation. Although we do not claim a specific ethical foundation, it seems to us that the feminist criterion has great potential in public health policy. The overall conclusion is that the normative framework must be explicitly discussed and stated in issues of women's and men's health.

SIERRA ANCHA WILDERNESS, ARIZONA.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wrucke, Chester T.; Light, Thomas D.

1984-01-01

Mineral surveys show that the Sierra Ancha Wilderness in Arizona has demonstrated resources of uranium, asbestos, and iron; probable and substantiated resource potential for uranium, asbestos, and iron; and a probable resource potential for fluorspar. Uranium resources occur in vein and strata-bound deposits in siltstone that underlies much of the wilderness. Deposits of long-staple chrysotile asbestos are likely in parts of the wilderness adjacent to known areas of asbestos production. Magnetite deposits in the wilderness form a small iron resource. No fossil fuel resources were identified in this study.

A tool for selecting SNPs for association studies based on observed linkage disequilibrium patterns.

PubMed

De La Vega, Francisco M; Isaac, Hadar I; Scafe, Charles R

2006-01-01

The design of genetic association studies using single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) requires the selection of subsets of the variants providing high statistical power at a reasonable cost. SNPs must be selected to maximize the probability that a causative mutation is in linkage disequilibrium (LD) with at least one marker genotyped in the study. The HapMap project performed a genome-wide survey of genetic variation with about a million SNPs typed in four populations, providing a rich resource to inform the design of association studies. A number of strategies have been proposed for the selection of SNPs based on observed LD, including construction of metric LD maps and the selection of haplotype tagging SNPs. Power calculations are important at the study design stage to ensure successful results. Integrating these methods and annotations can be challenging: the algorithms required to implement these methods are complex to deploy, and all the necessary data and annotations are deposited in disparate databases. Here, we present the SNPbrowser Software, a freely available tool to assist in the LD-based selection of markers for association studies. This stand-alone application provides fast query capabilities and swift visualization of SNPs, gene annotations, power, haplotype blocks, and LD map coordinates. Wizards implement several common SNP selection workflows including the selection of optimal subsets of SNPs (e.g. tagging SNPs). Selected SNPs are screened for their conversion potential to either TaqMan SNP Genotyping Assays or the SNPlex Genotyping System, two commercially available genotyping platforms, expediting the set-up of genetic studies with an increased probability of success.

Prioritizing Conservation of Ungulate Calving Resources in Multiple-Use Landscapes

PubMed Central

Dzialak, Matthew R.; Harju, Seth M.; Osborn, Robert G.; Wondzell, John J.; Hayden-Wing, Larry D.; Winstead, Jeffrey B.; Webb, Stephen L.

2011-01-01

Background Conserving animal populations in places where human activity is increasing is an ongoing challenge in many parts of the world. We investigated how human activity interacted with maternal status and individual variation in behavior to affect reliability of spatially-explicit models intended to guide conservation of critical ungulate calving resources. We studied Rocky Mountain elk (Cervus elaphus) that occupy a region where 2900 natural gas wells have been drilled. Methodology/Principal Findings We present novel applications of generalized additive modeling to predict maternal status based on movement, and of random-effects resource selection models to provide population and individual-based inference on the effects of maternal status and human activity. We used a 2×2 factorial design (treatment vs. control) that included elk that were either parturient or non-parturient and in areas either with or without industrial development. Generalized additive models predicted maternal status (parturiency) correctly 93% of the time based on movement. Human activity played a larger role than maternal status in shaping resource use; elk showed strong spatiotemporal patterns of selection or avoidance and marked individual variation in developed areas, but no such pattern in undeveloped areas. This difference had direct consequences for landscape-level conservation planning. When relative probability of use was calculated across the study area, there was disparity throughout 72–88% of the landscape in terms of where conservation intervention should be prioritized depending on whether models were based on behavior in developed areas or undeveloped areas. Model validation showed that models based on behavior in developed areas had poor predictive accuracy, whereas the model based on behavior in undeveloped areas had high predictive accuracy. Conclusions/Significance By directly testing for differences between developed and undeveloped areas, and by modeling resource selection in a random-effects framework that provided individual-based inference, we conclude that: 1) amplified selection or avoidance behavior and individual variation, as responses to increasing human activity, complicate conservation planning in multiple-use landscapes, and 2) resource selection behavior in places where human activity is predictable or less dynamic may provide a more reliable basis from which to prioritize conservation action. PMID:21297866

A Novel Wireless Power Transfer-Based Weighed Clustering Cooperative Spectrum Sensing Method for Cognitive Sensor Networks.

PubMed

Liu, Xin

2015-10-30

In a cognitive sensor network (CSN), the wastage of sensing time and energy is a challenge to cooperative spectrum sensing, when the number of cooperative cognitive nodes (CNs) becomes very large. In this paper, a novel wireless power transfer (WPT)-based weighed clustering cooperative spectrum sensing model is proposed, which divides all the CNs into several clusters, and then selects the most favorable CNs as the cluster heads and allows the common CNs to transfer the received radio frequency (RF) energy of the primary node (PN) to the cluster heads, in order to supply the electrical energy needed for sensing and cooperation. A joint resource optimization is formulated to maximize the spectrum access probability of the CSN, through jointly allocating sensing time and clustering number. According to the resource optimization results, a clustering algorithm is proposed. The simulation results have shown that compared to the traditional model, the cluster heads of the proposed model can achieve more transmission power and there exists optimal sensing time and clustering number to maximize the spectrum access probability.

Examining speed versus selection in connectivity models using elk migration as an example

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brennan, Angela; Hanks, Ephraim M.; Merkle, Jerod A.; Cole, Eric K.; Dewey, Sarah R.; Courtemanch, Alyson B.; Cross, Paul C.

2018-01-01

ContextLandscape resistance is vital to connectivity modeling and frequently derived from resource selection functions (RSFs). RSFs estimate relative probability of use and tend to focus on understanding habitat preferences during slow, routine animal movements (e.g., foraging). Dispersal and migration, however, can produce rarer, faster movements, in which case models of movement speed rather than resource selection may be more realistic for identifying habitats that facilitate connectivity.ObjectiveTo compare two connectivity modeling approaches applied to resistance estimated from models of movement rate and resource selection.MethodsUsing movement data from migrating elk, we evaluated continuous time Markov chain (CTMC) and movement-based RSF models (i.e., step selection functions [SSFs]). We applied circuit theory and shortest random path (SRP) algorithms to CTMC, SSF and null (i.e., flat) resistance surfaces to predict corridors between elk seasonal ranges. We evaluated prediction accuracy by comparing model predictions to empirical elk movements.ResultsAll connectivity models predicted elk movements well, but models applied to CTMC resistance were more accurate than models applied to SSF and null resistance. Circuit theory models were more accurate on average than SRP models.ConclusionsCTMC can be more realistic than SSFs for estimating resistance for fast movements, though SSFs may demonstrate some predictive ability when animals also move slowly through corridors (e.g., stopover use during migration). High null model accuracy suggests seasonal range data may also be critical for predicting direct migration routes. For animals that migrate or disperse across large landscapes, we recommend incorporating CTMC into the connectivity modeling toolkit.

Examining speed versus selection in connectivity models using elk migration as an example

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brennan, Angela; Hanks, EM; Merkle, JA; Cole, EK; Dewey, SR; Courtemanch, AB; Cross, Paul C.

2018-01-01

Context: Landscape resistance is vital to connectivity modeling and frequently derived from resource selection functions (RSFs). RSFs estimate relative probability of use and tend to focus on understanding habitat preferences during slow, routine animal movements (e.g., foraging). Dispersal and migration, however, can produce rarer, faster movements, in which case models of movement speed rather than resource selection may be more realistic for identifying habitats that facilitate connectivity. Objective: To compare two connectivity modeling approaches applied to resistance estimated from models of movement rate and resource selection. Methods: Using movement data from migrating elk, we evaluated continuous time Markov chain (CTMC) and movement-based RSF models (i.e., step selection functions [SSFs]). We applied circuit theory and shortest random path (SRP) algorithms to CTMC, SSF and null (i.e., flat) resistance surfaces to predict corridors between elk seasonal ranges. We evaluated prediction accuracy by comparing model predictions to empirical elk movements. Results: All models predicted elk movements well, but models applied to CTMC resistance were more accurate than models applied to SSF and null resistance. Circuit theory models were more accurate on average than SRP algorithms. Conclusions: CTMC can be more realistic than SSFs for estimating resistance for fast movements, though SSFs may demonstrate some predictive ability when animals also move slowly through corridors (e.g., stopover use during migration). High null model accuracy suggests seasonal range data may also be critical for predicting direct migration routes. For animals that migrate or disperse across large landscapes, we recommend incorporating CTMC into the connectivity modeling toolkit.

SILL HILL, HAUSER, AND CALIENTE ROADLESS AREAS, CALIFORNIA.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Todd, Victoria R.; Peters, Thomas J.

1984-01-01

Probable resource potential for metallic minerals and gemstones was identified during mineral-resource surveys in the Sill Hill, Hauser, and Caliente Roadless Areas, California. Parts of the Sill Hill Roadless Area have a probable potential for gold, tungsten, and nickel and by-product copper. Part of the Caliente Roadless Area has a probable potential for tourmaline, beryl, quartz, and possibly other specimen minerals and gemstones. No mineral-resource potential was identified in the Hauser Roadless Area, although potash feldspar is abundant as a rock-forming constituent in two parts of the area. The Caliente Roadless Area lies less than 1 mi from an area of hot springs activity which may be part of a low-grade geothermal resource area, but no geothermal resource potential was identified in this or any of the other areas. No resource potential for nuclear energy was identified in this study and the geologic terrane precludes the occurrence of hydrocarbon resources.

Accounting for individual behavioural variation in studies of habitat selection.

PubMed

Wirsing, Aaron J; Heithaus, Michael R

2014-03-01

A caribou wearing an animal-borne video camera (a) and animal-borne video footage taken from systems deployed on mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) in north-central Washington state, USA (b-d). When paired with tracking technology, animal-borne video can reveal detailed information about behaviour and environmental features at each location: (b) feeding, (c) vigilant in the open, (d) vigilant in cover, (e) resting in the open. Accordingly, animal-borne video systems should allow for analyses of habitat selection by individuals in particular behavioural states. In Focus: DeCesare, N.J., Hebblewhite, M., Bradley, M., Hervieux, D., Neufeld, L. & Musiani, M. (2014) Linking habitat selection and predation risk to spatial variation in survival. Journal of Animal Ecology, 83, 343-352. Resource selection is often assumed to confer enhanced fitness, but this assumption is rarely examined. In a study involving woodland caribou subject to grey wolf predation, DeCesare et al. (2014) show that while patterns of selection by caribou did correspond with a fitness proxy (survival probability), individuals did not avoid wolf predation risk to the extent that would minimize mortality. Here, we use the results of this paper as a springboard for discussing the choice of fitness proxies and the need to account for individual behavioural variation in studies of resource selection. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2014 British Ecological Society.

Assessing risk to birds from industrial wind energy development via paired resource selection models.

PubMed

Miller, Tricia A; Brooks, Robert P; Lanzone, Michael; Brandes, David; Cooper, Jeff; O'Malley, Kieran; Maisonneuve, Charles; Tremblay, Junior; Duerr, Adam; Katzner, Todd

2014-06-01

When wildlife habitat overlaps with industrial development animals may be harmed. Because wildlife and people select resources to maximize biological fitness and economic return, respectively, we estimated risk, the probability of eagles encountering and being affected by turbines, by overlaying models of resource selection for each entity. This conceptual framework can be applied across multiple spatial scales to understand and mitigate impacts of industry on wildlife. We estimated risk to Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) from wind energy development in 3 topographically distinct regions of the central Appalachian Mountains of Pennsylvania (United States) based on models of resource selection of wind facilities (n = 43) and of northbound migrating eagles (n = 30). Risk to eagles from wind energy was greatest in the Ridge and Valley region; all 24 eagles that passed through that region used the highest risk landscapes at least once during low altitude flight. In contrast, only half of the birds that entered the Allegheny Plateau region used highest risk landscapes and none did in the Allegheny Mountains. Likewise, in the Allegheny Mountains, the majority of wind turbines (56%) were situated in poor eagle habitat; thus, risk to eagles is lower there than in the Ridge and Valley, where only 1% of turbines are in poor eagle habitat. Risk within individual facilities was extremely variable; on average, facilities had 11% (SD 23; range = 0-100%) of turbines in highest risk landscapes and 26% (SD 30; range = 0-85%) of turbines in the lowest risk landscapes. Our results provide a mechanism for relocating high-risk turbines, and they show the feasibility of this novel and highly adaptable framework for managing risk of harm to wildlife from industrial development. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

Self-organized discrimination of resources.

PubMed

Campo, Alexandre; Garnier, Simon; Dédriche, Olivier; Zekkri, Mouhcine; Dorigo, Marco

2011-01-01

When selecting a resource to exploit, an insect colony must take into account at least two constraints: the resource must be abundant enough to sustain the whole group, but not too large to limit exploitation costs, and risks of conflicts with other colonies. Following recent results on cockroaches and ants, we introduce here a behavioral mechanism that satisfies these two constraints. Individuals simply modulate their probability to switch to another resource as a function of the local density of conspecifics locally detected. As a result, the individuals gather at the smallest resource that can host the whole group, hence reducing competition and exploitation costs while fulfilling the overall group's needs. Our analysis reveals that the group becomes better at discriminating between similar resources as it grows in size. Also, the discrimination mechanism is flexible and the group readily switches to a better suited resource as it appears in the environment. The collective decision emerges through the self-organization of individuals, that is, in absence of any centralized control. It also requires a minimal individual cognitive investment, making the proposed mechanism likely to occur in other social species and suitable for the development of distributed decision making tools.

Self-Organized Discrimination of Resources

PubMed Central

Campo, Alexandre; Garnier, Simon; Dédriche, Olivier; Zekkri, Mouhcine; Dorigo, Marco

2011-01-01

When selecting a resource to exploit, an insect colony must take into account at least two constraints: the resource must be abundant enough to sustain the whole group, but not too large to limit exploitation costs, and risks of conflicts with other colonies. Following recent results on cockroaches and ants, we introduce here a behavioral mechanism that satisfies these two constraints. Individuals simply modulate their probability to switch to another resource as a function of the local density of conspecifics locally detected. As a result, the individuals gather at the smallest resource that can host the whole group, hence reducing competition and exploitation costs while fulfilling the overall group's needs. Our analysis reveals that the group becomes better at discriminating between similar resources as it grows in size. Also, the discrimination mechanism is flexible and the group readily switches to a better suited resource as it appears in the environment. The collective decision emerges through the self-organization of individuals, that is, in absence of any centralized control. It also requires a minimal individual cognitive investment, making the proposed mechanism likely to occur in other social species and suitable for the development of distributed decision making tools. PMID:21625643

BIRDSEYE, NEPHI, AND SANTAQUIN ROADLESS AREAS, UTAH.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sorensen, Martin L.; Korzeb, Stanley L.

1984-01-01

The results of a mineral-resource appraisal of the Birdseye, Nephi, And Santaquin Roadless Areas in Utah indicate several areas with probable or substantiated mineral-resource potential. The Eva mine in the Santaquin Roadless Area contains small, demonstrated resources of lead-zinc-silver ore. A probable resource potential for lead, zinc, and silver deposits exists in the area around the Eva mine, and elsewhere in the Birdseye, Nephi, and Santaquin Roadless Areas where Mississipian and Cambrian carbonate rocks occur. A substantiated potential for gypsum is recognized in the southwest corner of the Nephi Roadless Area and a probable resource potential in adjacent areas underlain by the Jurassic Arapien Shale. There are limestone resources for use in cement and smelter flux in the Nephi and Santaquin Roadless Areas, but similar limestone occurs abundantly outside the area. The potential for oil and gas resources cannot be assessed from available data. There are no indications of coal or geothermal resources in the roadless areas.

Experimental demonstration of an Allee effect in microbial populations.

PubMed

Kaul, RajReni B; Kramer, Andrew M; Dobbs, Fred C; Drake, John M

2016-04-01

Microbial populations can be dispersal limited. However, microorganisms that successfully disperse into physiologically ideal environments are not guaranteed to establish. This observation contradicts the Baas-Becking tenet: 'Everything is everywhere, but the environment selects'. Allee effects, which manifest in the relationship between initial population density and probability of establishment, could explain this observation. Here, we experimentally demonstrate that small populations of Vibrio fischeri are subject to an intrinsic demographic Allee effect. Populations subjected to predation by the bacterivore Cafeteria roenbergensis display both intrinsic and extrinsic demographic Allee effects. The estimated critical threshold required to escape positive density-dependence is around 5, 20 or 90 cells ml(-1)under conditions of high carbon resources, low carbon resources or low carbon resources with predation, respectively. This work builds on the foundations of modern microbial ecology, demonstrating that mechanisms controlling macroorganisms apply to microorganisms, and provides a statistical method to detect Allee effects in data. © 2016 The Author(s).

Probability theory versus simulation of petroleum potential in play analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Crovelli, R.A.

1987-01-01

An analytic probabilistic methodology for resource appraisal of undiscovered oil and gas resources in play analysis is presented. This play-analysis methodology is a geostochastic system for petroleum resource appraisal in explored as well as frontier areas. An objective was to replace an existing Monte Carlo simulation method in order to increase the efficiency of the appraisal process. Underlying the two methods is a single geologic model which considers both the uncertainty of the presence of the assessed hydrocarbon and its amount if present. The results of the model are resource estimates of crude oil, nonassociated gas, dissolved gas, and gas for a geologic play in terms of probability distributions. The analytic method is based upon conditional probability theory and a closed form solution of all means and standard deviations, along with the probabilities of occurrence. ?? 1987 J.C. Baltzer A.G., Scientific Publishing Company.

DINKEY LAKES ROADLESS AREA, CALIFORNIA.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dodge, F.C.W.; Federspiel, F.E.

1984-01-01

The Dinkey Lakes Roadless Area occupies an area of about 184 sq mi on the western slope of the Sierra Nevada, California. The results of a mineral survey show that parts of the area have substantiated resource potential for tungsten and marble and probable resource potential for quartz crystal gemstones. A probable resource potential for geothermal energy exists in one small area. No potential for other metallic mineral or energy resources was identified in this study.

Secure and Efficient Signature Scheme Based on NTRU for Mobile Payment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xia, Yunhao; You, Lirong; Sun, Zhe; Sun, Zhixin

2017-10-01

Mobile payment becomes more and more popular, however the traditional public-key encryption algorithm has higher requirements for hardware which is not suitable for mobile terminals of limited computing resources. In addition, these public-key encryption algorithms do not have the ability of anti-quantum computing. This paper researches public-key encryption algorithm NTRU for quantum computation through analyzing the influence of parameter q and k on the probability of generating reasonable signature value. Two methods are proposed to improve the probability of generating reasonable signature value. Firstly, increase the value of parameter q. Secondly, add the authentication condition that meet the reasonable signature requirements during the signature phase. Experimental results show that the proposed signature scheme can realize the zero leakage of the private key information of the signature value, and increase the probability of generating the reasonable signature value. It also improve rate of the signature, and avoid the invalid signature propagation in the network, but the scheme for parameter selection has certain restrictions.

Resource selection models are useful in predicting fine-scale distributions of black-footed ferrets in prairie dog colonies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Eads, David A.; Jachowski, David S.; Biggins, Dean E.; Livieri, Travis M.; Matchett, Marc R.; Millspaugh, Joshua J.

2012-01-01

Wildlife-habitat relationships are often conceptualized as resource selection functions (RSFs)—models increasingly used to estimate species distributions and prioritize habitat conservation. We evaluated the predictive capabilities of 2 black-footed ferret (Mustela nigripes) RSFs developed on a 452-ha colony of black-tailed prairie dogs (Cynomys ludovicianus) in the Conata Basin, South Dakota. We used the RSFs to project the relative probability of occurrence of ferrets throughout an adjacent 227-ha colony. We evaluated performance of the RSFs using ferret space use data collected via postbreeding spotlight surveys June–October 2005–2006. In home ranges and core areas, ferrets selected the predicted "very high" and "high" occurrence categories of both RSFs. Count metrics also suggested selection of these categories; for each model in each year, approximately 81% of ferret locations occurred in areas of very high or high predicted occurrence. These results suggest usefulness of the RSFs in estimating the distribution of ferrets throughout a black-tailed prairie dog colony. The RSFs provide a fine-scale habitat assessment for ferrets that can be used to prioritize releases of ferrets and habitat restoration for prairie dogs and ferrets. A method to quickly inventory the distribution of prairie dog burrow openings would greatly facilitate application of the RSFs.

Exploring Several Methods of Groundwater Model Selection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samani, Saeideh; Ye, Ming; Asghari Moghaddam, Asghar

2017-04-01

Selecting reliable models for simulating groundwater flow and solute transport is essential to groundwater resources management and protection. This work is to explore several model selection methods for avoiding over-complex and/or over-parameterized groundwater models. We consider six groundwater flow models with different numbers (6, 10, 10, 13, 13 and 15) of model parameters. These models represent alternative geological interpretations, recharge estimates, and boundary conditions at a study site in Iran. The models were developed with Model Muse, and calibrated against observations of hydraulic head using UCODE. Model selection was conducted by using the following four approaches: (1) Rank the models using their root mean square error (RMSE) obtained after UCODE-based model calibration, (2) Calculate model probability using GLUE method, (3) Evaluate model probability using model selection criteria (AIC, AICc, BIC, and KIC), and (4) Evaluate model weights using the Fuzzy Multi-Criteria-Decision-Making (MCDM) approach. MCDM is based on the fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy technique for order performance, which is to identify the ideal solution by a gradual expansion from the local to the global scale of model parameters. The KIC and MCDM methods are superior to other methods, as they consider not only the fit between observed and simulated data and the number of parameter, but also uncertainty in model parameters. Considering these factors can prevent from occurring over-complexity and over-parameterization, when selecting the appropriate groundwater flow models. These methods selected, as the best model, one with average complexity (10 parameters) and the best parameter estimation (model 3).

Taking the easy way out? Increasing implementation effort reduces probability maximizing under cognitive load.

PubMed

Schulze, Christin; Newell, Ben R

2016-07-01

Cognitive load has previously been found to have a positive effect on strategy selection in repeated risky choice. Specifically, whereas inferior probability matching often prevails under single-task conditions, optimal probability maximizing sometimes dominates when a concurrent task competes for cognitive resources. We examined the extent to which this seemingly beneficial effect of increased task demands hinges on the effort required to implement each of the choice strategies. Probability maximizing typically involves a simple repeated response to a single option, whereas probability matching requires choice proportions to be tracked carefully throughout a sequential choice task. Here, we flipped this pattern by introducing a manipulation that made the implementation of maximizing more taxing and, at the same time, allowed decision makers to probability match via a simple repeated response to a single option. The results from two experiments showed that increasing the implementation effort of probability maximizing resulted in decreased adoption rates of this strategy. This was the case both when decision makers simultaneously learned about the outcome probabilities and responded to a dual task (Exp. 1) and when these two aspects were procedurally separated in two distinct stages (Exp. 2). We conclude that the effort involved in implementing a choice strategy is a key factor in shaping repeated choice under uncertainty. Moreover, highlighting the importance of implementation effort casts new light on the sometimes surprising and inconsistent effects of cognitive load that have previously been reported in the literature.

Predictive modelling of habitat selection by marine predators with respect to the abundance and depth distribution of pelagic prey.

PubMed

Boyd, Charlotte; Castillo, Ramiro; Hunt, George L; Punt, André E; VanBlaricom, Glenn R; Weimerskirch, Henri; Bertrand, Sophie

2015-11-01

Understanding the ecological processes that underpin species distribution patterns is a fundamental goal in spatial ecology. However, developing predictive models of habitat use is challenging for species that forage in marine environments, as both predators and prey are often highly mobile and difficult to monitor. Consequently, few studies have developed resource selection functions for marine predators based directly on the abundance and distribution of their prey. We analysed contemporaneous data on the diving locations of two seabird species, the shallow-diving Peruvian Booby (Sula variegata) and deeper diving Guanay Cormorant (Phalacrocorax bougainvilliorum), and the abundance and depth distribution of their main prey, Peruvian anchoveta (Engraulis ringens). Based on this unique data set, we developed resource selection functions to test the hypothesis that the probability of seabird diving behaviour at a given location is a function of the relative abundance of prey in the upper water column. For both species, we show that the probability of diving behaviour is mostly explained by the distribution of prey at shallow depths. While the probability of diving behaviour increases sharply with prey abundance at relatively low levels of abundance, support for including abundance in addition to the depth distribution of prey is weak, suggesting that prey abundance was not a major factor determining the location of diving behaviour during the study period. The study thus highlights the importance of the depth distribution of prey for two species of seabird with different diving capabilities. The results complement previous research that points towards the importance of oceanographic processes that enhance the accessibility of prey to seabirds. The implications are that locations where prey is predictably found at accessible depths may be more important for surface foragers, such as seabirds, than locations where prey is predictably abundant. Analysis of the relative importance of abundance and accessibility is essential for the design and evaluation of effective management responses to reduced prey availability for seabirds and other top predators in marine systems. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2015 British Ecological Society.

SANTA LUCIA WILDERNESS, AND GARCIA MOUNTAIN, BLACK MOUNTAIN, LA PANZA, MACHESNA MOUNTAIN, LOS MACHOS HILLS, BIG ROCKS, AND STANLEY MOUNTAIN ROADLESS AREAS, CALIFORNIA.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frizzell, Virgil A.; Kuizon, Lucia

1984-01-01

The Santa Lucia Wilderness Area and Garcia Mountain, Black Mountain, La Panza, Machesna Mountain, Los Machos Hills, Big Rocks, and Stanley Mountain Roadless Areas together occupy an area of about 218 sq mi in the Los Padres National Forest, California. On the basis of a mineral-resource evaluation a small area in the Black Mountain Roadless Area has a probable mineral-resource potential for uranium, and a small area in the Stanley Mountain Roadless Area has probable potential for low-grade mercury resources. Although petroleum resources occur in rocks similar to those found in the study area, no potential for petroleum resources was identified in the wilderness or any of the roadless areas. No resource potential for other mineral resources was identified in any of the areas. Detailed geologic mapping and geochemical sampling probably would increase knowledge about distribution and modes of occurrence of uranium and cinnabar in those areas, respectively.

Fix success and accuracy of GPS radio collars in old-growth temperate coniferous forests

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sager-Fradkin, Kimberly A.; Jenkins, Kurt J.; Hoffman, Robert L.; Happe, P.; Beecham, J.; Wright, R.G.

2007-01-01

Global Positioning System (GPS) telemetry is used extensively to study animal distribution and resource selection patterns but is susceptible to biases resulting from data omission and spatial inaccuracies. These data errors may cause misinterpretation of wildlife habitat selection or spatial use patterns. We used both stationary test collars and collared free-ranging American black bears (Ursus americanus) to quantify systemic data loss and location error of GPS telemetry in mountainous, old-growth temperate forests of Olympic National Park, Washington, USA. We developed predictive models of environmental factors that influence the probability of obtaining GPS locations and evaluated the ability of weighting factors derived from these models to mitigate data omission biases from collared bears. We also examined the effects of microhabitat on collar fix success rate and examined collar accuracy as related to elevation changes between successive fixes. The probability of collars successfully obtaining location fixes was positively associated with elevation and unobstructed satellite view and was negatively affected by the interaction of overstory canopy and satellite view. Test collars were 33% more successful at acquiring fixes than those on bears. Fix success rates of collared bears varied seasonally and diurnally. Application of weighting factors to individual collared bear fixes recouped only 6% of lost data and failed to reduce seasonal or diurnal variation in fix success, suggesting that variables not included in our model contributed to data loss. Test collars placed to mimic bear bedding sites received 16% fewer fixes than randomly placed collars, indicating that microhabitat selection may contribute to data loss for wildlife equipped with GPS collars. Horizontal collar errors of >800 m occurred when elevation changes between successive fixes were >400 m. We conclude that significant limitations remain in accounting for data loss and error inherent in using GPS telemetry in coniferous forest ecosystems and that, at present, resource selection patterns of large mammals derived from GPS telemetry should be interpreted cautiously.

Sage-grouse habitat selection during winter in Alberta

USGS Publications Warehouse

Carpenter, Jennifer L.; Aldridge, Cameron L.; Boyce, Mark S.

2010-01-01

Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) are dependent on sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) for food and shelter during winter, yet few studies have assessed winter habitat selection, particularly at scales applicable to conservation planning. Small changes to availability of winter habitats have caused drastic reductions in some sage-grouse populations. We modeled winter habitat selection by sage-grouse in Alberta, Canada, by using a resource selection function. Our purpose was to 1) generate a robust winter habitat-selection model for Alberta sage-grouse; 2) spatially depict habitat suitability in a Geographic Information System to identify areas with a high probability of selection and thus, conservation importance; and 3) assess the relative influence of human development, including oil and gas wells, in landscape models of winter habitat selection. Terrain and vegetation characteristics, sagebrush cover, anthropogenic landscape features, and energy development were important in top Akaike's Information Criterionselected models. During winter, sage-grouse selected dense sagebrush cover and homogenous less rugged areas, and avoided energy development and 2-track truck trails. Sage-grouse avoidance of energy development highlights the need for comprehensive management strategies that maintain suitable habitats across all seasons. ?? 2010 The Wildlife Society.

The Long-Term Health Implications of Marital Disruption: Divorce, Work Limits, and Social Security Disability Benefits Among Men.

PubMed

Couch, Kenneth A; Tamborini, Christopher R; Reznik, Gayle L

2015-10-01

We provide new evidence on the long-term impact of divorce on work disability among U.S. men. Using data from the 2004 Survey of Income and Program Participation linked to U.S. Social Security Administration records, we assess the relationship between divorce and subsequent self-reports of work limitations and the receipt of federal disability benefits. The examination of self-reports and administrative records of medically qualified benefits provides dual confirmation of key relationships. We compare men who experienced a marital dissolution between 1975 and 1984 with continuously married men for 20 years following divorce using fixed-effects and propensity score matching models, and choose a sample to help control for selection into divorce. On average, we find that divorce is not associated with an increased probability of self-reported work limitations or receipt of disability benefits over the long run. However, among those who do not remarry, we do find that divorce increases men's long-term probability of both self-reported work limitations and federal disability benefit receipt. Lack of marital resources may drive this relationship. Alternative estimates that do not control for selection into divorce demonstrate that selection bias can substantially alter findings regarding the relationship between marital status changes and subsequent health.

Expected utility violations evolve under status-based selection mechanisms.

PubMed

Dickson, Eric S

2008-10-07

The expected utility theory of decision making under uncertainty, a cornerstone of modern economics, assumes that humans linearly weight "utilities" for different possible outcomes by the probabilities with which these outcomes occur. Despite the theory's intuitive appeal, both from normative and from evolutionary perspectives, many experiments demonstrate systematic, though poorly understood, patterns of deviation from EU predictions. This paper offers a novel theoretical account of such patterns of deviation by demonstrating that EU violations can emerge from evolutionary selection when individual "status" affects inclusive fitness. In humans, battles for resources and social standing involve high-stakes decision making, and assortative mating ensures that status matters for fitness outcomes. The paper therefore proposes grounding the study of decision making under uncertainty in an evolutionary game-theoretic framework.

A functional model of sensemaking in a neurocognitive architecture.

PubMed

Lebiere, Christian; Pirolli, Peter; Thomson, Robert; Paik, Jaehyon; Rutledge-Taylor, Matthew; Staszewski, James; Anderson, John R

2013-01-01

Sensemaking is the active process of constructing a meaningful representation (i.e., making sense) of some complex aspect of the world. In relation to intelligence analysis, sensemaking is the act of finding and interpreting relevant facts amongst the sea of incoming reports, images, and intelligence. We present a cognitive model of core information-foraging and hypothesis-updating sensemaking processes applied to complex spatial probability estimation and decision-making tasks. While the model was developed in a hybrid symbolic-statistical cognitive architecture, its correspondence to neural frameworks in terms of both structure and mechanisms provided a direct bridge between rational and neural levels of description. Compared against data from two participant groups, the model correctly predicted both the presence and degree of four biases: confirmation, anchoring and adjustment, representativeness, and probability matching. It also favorably predicted human performance in generating probability distributions across categories, assigning resources based on these distributions, and selecting relevant features given a prior probability distribution. This model provides a constrained theoretical framework describing cognitive biases as arising from three interacting factors: the structure of the task environment, the mechanisms and limitations of the cognitive architecture, and the use of strategies to adapt to the dual constraints of cognition and the environment.

A Functional Model of Sensemaking in a Neurocognitive Architecture

PubMed Central

Lebiere, Christian; Paik, Jaehyon; Rutledge-Taylor, Matthew; Staszewski, James; Anderson, John R.

2013-01-01

Sensemaking is the active process of constructing a meaningful representation (i.e., making sense) of some complex aspect of the world. In relation to intelligence analysis, sensemaking is the act of finding and interpreting relevant facts amongst the sea of incoming reports, images, and intelligence. We present a cognitive model of core information-foraging and hypothesis-updating sensemaking processes applied to complex spatial probability estimation and decision-making tasks. While the model was developed in a hybrid symbolic-statistical cognitive architecture, its correspondence to neural frameworks in terms of both structure and mechanisms provided a direct bridge between rational and neural levels of description. Compared against data from two participant groups, the model correctly predicted both the presence and degree of four biases: confirmation, anchoring and adjustment, representativeness, and probability matching. It also favorably predicted human performance in generating probability distributions across categories, assigning resources based on these distributions, and selecting relevant features given a prior probability distribution. This model provides a constrained theoretical framework describing cognitive biases as arising from three interacting factors: the structure of the task environment, the mechanisms and limitations of the cognitive architecture, and the use of strategies to adapt to the dual constraints of cognition and the environment. PMID:24302930

Rare targets are less susceptible to attention capture once detection has begun.

PubMed

Hon, Nicholas; Ng, Gavin; Chan, Gerald

2016-04-01

Rare or low probability targets are detected more slowly and/ or less accurately than higher probability counterparts. Various proposals have implicated perceptual and response-based processes in this deficit. Recent evidence, however, suggests that it is attentional in nature, with low probability targets requiring more attentional resources than high probability ones to detect. This difference in attentional requirements, in turn, suggests the possibility that low and high probability targets may have different susceptibilities to attention capture, which is also known to be resource-dependent. Supporting this hypothesis, we found that, once attentional resources have begun to be engaged by detection processes, low, but not high, probability targets have a reduced susceptibility to capture. Our findings speak to several issues. First, they indicate that the likelihood of attention capture occurring when a given task-relevant stimulus is being processed is dependent, to some extent, on how said stimulus is represented within mental task sets. Second, they provide added support for the idea that the behavioural deficit associated with low probability targets is attention-based. Finally, the current data point to reduced top-down biasing of target templates as a likely mechanism underlying the attentional locus of the deficit in question.

WILD ROGUE WILDERNESS, OREGON.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gray, Floyd; Miller, Michael S.

1984-01-01

A geologic, geochemical, and geophysical investigation and a survey of mines, prospects, and quarries were conducted to evaluate the mineral-resource potential of the Wild Rogue Wilderness, Oregon. Approximately 800 mining claims, one-third of which are placer gold locations, exist in or adjacent to the area. The Wild Rogue Wilderness has one area of probable resource for copper, lead, zinc, silver, and gold and two area of probable resource potential for gold.

Using widely spaced observations of land use, forest attributes, and intrusions to map resource potential and human impact probability

Treesearch

Victor A. Rudis

2000-01-01

Scant information exists about the spatial extent of human impact on forest resource supplies, i.e., depreciative and nonforest uses. I used observations of ground-sampled land use and intrusions on forest land to map the probability of resource use and human impact for broad areas. Data came from a seven-state survey region (Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi,...

Using widely spaced observations of land use, forest attributes, and intrusions to map resource potential and human impact probability

Treesearch

Victor A. Rudis

2000-01-01

Scant information exists about the spatial extent of human impact on forest resource supplies, i.e., depreciative and nonforest uses. I used observations of ground-sampled land use and intrusions on forest land to map the probability of resource use and human impact for broad areas. Data came from a seven State survey region (Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi,...

IDAHO WILDERNESS, IDAHO.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cater, Fred W.; Weldin, R.D.

1984-01-01

Mineral surveys conducted in the Idaho Wilderness identified 28 areas with probable or substantiated mineral-resource potential, and 5 mines with demonstrated or inferred resources. Metals including gold, silver, copper, lead, zinc, and tungsten, have been extracted from deposits inside the wilderness. Current studies indicate additional areas of probable mineral-resource potential for gold, tungsten, mercury, rare-earth elements, and base metals related to intrusive rocks that follow structures formed by cauldron subsidence. These on-going studies also indicate that there is probable and substantiated resource potential for cobalt with copper, silver, and gold in the Precambrian rocks in the northeastern part of the wilderness in a geologic environment similar to that of the Blackbird mine that lies outside the area. The nature of the geologic terrane precludes the potential for organic fuels.

Male reproductive strategy explains spatiotemporal segregation in brown bears

PubMed Central

Steyaert, Sam MJG; Kindberg, Jonas; Swenson, Jon E; Zedrosser, Andreas

2013-01-01

1. Spatiotemporal segregation is often explained by the risk for offspring predation or by differences in physiology, predation risk vulnerability or competitive abilities related to size dimorphism. 2. Most large carnivores are size dimorphic and offspring predation is often intraspecific and related to nonparental infanticide (NPI). NPI can be a foraging strategy, a strategy to reduce competition, or a male reproductive strategy. Spatiotemporal segregation is widespread among large carnivores, but its nature remains poorly understood. 3. We evaluated three hypotheses to explain spatiotemporal segregation in the brown bear, a size-dimorphic large carnivore in which NPI is common; the ‘NPI – foraging/competition hypothesis', i.e. NPI as a foraging strategy or a strategy to reduce competition, the ‘NPI – sexual selection hypothesis’, i.e. infanticide as a male reproductive strategy and the ‘body size hypothesis’, i.e. body-size-related differences in physiology, predation risk vulnerability or competitive ability causes spatiotemporal segregation. To test these hypotheses, we quantified spatiotemporal segregation among adult males, lone adult females and females with cubs-of-the-year, based on GPS-relocation data (2006–2010) and resource selection functions in a Scandinavian population. 4. We found that spatiotemporal segregation was strongest between females with cubs-of-the-year and adult males during the mating season. During the mating season, females with cubs-of-the-year selected their resources, in contrast to adult males, in less rugged landscapes in relative close proximity to certain human-related variables, and in more open habitat types. After the mating season, females with cubs-of-the-year markedly shifted their resource selection towards a pattern more similar to that of their conspecifics. No strong spatiotemporal segregation was apparent between females with cubs-of-the-year and conspecifics during the mating and the postmating season. 5. The ‘NPI – sexual selection hypothesis’ best explained spatiotemporal segregation in our study system. We suggest that females with cubs-of-the-year alter their resource selection to avoid infanticidal males. In species exhibiting NPI as a male reproductive strategy, female avoidance of infanticidal males is probably more common than observed or reported, and may come with a fitness cost if females trade safety for optimal resources. PMID:23461483

Anthropogenic resource subsidies determine space use by Australian arid zone dingoes: an improved resource selection modelling approach.

PubMed

Newsome, Thomas M; Ballard, Guy-Anthony; Dickman, Christopher R; Fleming, Peter J S; Howden, Chris

2013-01-01

Dingoes (Canis lupus dingo) were introduced to Australia and became feral at least 4,000 years ago. We hypothesized that dingoes, being of domestic origin, would be adaptable to anthropogenic resource subsidies and that their space use would be affected by the dispersion of those resources. We tested this by analyzing Resource Selection Functions (RSFs) developed from GPS fixes (locations) of dingoes in arid central Australia. Using Generalized Linear Mixed-effect Models (GLMMs), we investigated resource relationships for dingoes that had access to abundant food near mine facilities, and for those that did not. From these models, we predicted the probability of dingo occurrence in relation to anthropogenic resource subsidies and other habitat characteristics over ∼ 18,000 km(2). Very small standard errors and subsequent pervasively high P-values of results will become more important as the size of data sets, such as our GPS tracking logs, increases. Therefore, we also investigated methods to minimize the effects of serial and spatio-temporal correlation among samples and unbalanced study designs. Using GLMMs, we accounted for some of the correlation structure of GPS animal tracking data; however, parameter standard errors remained very small and all predictors were highly significant. Consequently, we developed an alternative approach that allowed us to review effect sizes at different spatial scales and determine which predictors were sufficiently ecologically meaningful to include in final RSF models. We determined that the most important predictor for dingo occurrence around mine sites was distance to the refuse facility. Away from mine sites, close proximity to human-provided watering points was predictive of dingo dispersion as were other landscape factors including palaeochannels, rocky rises and elevated drainage depressions. Our models demonstrate that anthropogenically supplemented food and water can alter dingo-resource relationships. The spatial distribution of such resources is therefore critical for the conservation and management of dingoes and other top predators.

How predictability of feeding patches affects home range and foraging habitat selection in avian social scavengers?

PubMed

Monsarrat, Sophie; Benhamou, Simon; Sarrazin, François; Bessa-Gomes, Carmen; Bouten, Willem; Duriez, Olivier

2013-01-01

Feeding stations are commonly used to sustain conservation programs of scavengers but their impact on behaviour is still debated. They increase the temporal and spatial predictability of food resources while scavengers have supposedly evolved to search for unpredictable resources. In the Grands Causses (France), a reintroduced population of Griffon vultures Gyps fulvus can find carcasses at three types of sites: 1. "light feeding stations", where farmers can drop carcasses at their farm (spatially predictable), 2. "heavy feeding stations", where carcasses from nearby farms are concentrated (spatially and temporally predictable) and 3. open grasslands, where resources are randomly distributed (unpredictable). The impact of feeding stations on vulture's foraging behaviour was investigated using 28 GPS-tracked vultures. The average home range size was maximal in spring (1272 ± 752 km(2)) and minimal in winter (473 ± 237 km(2)) and was highly variable among individuals. Analyses of home range characteristics and feeding habitat selection via compositional analysis showed that feeding stations were always preferred compared to the rest of the habitat where vultures can find unpredictable resources. Feeding stations were particularly used when resources were scarce (summer) or when flight conditions were poor (winter), limiting long-ranging movements. However, when flight conditions were optimal, home ranges also encompassed large areas of grassland where vultures could find unpredictable resources, suggesting that vultures did not lose their natural ability to forage on unpredictable resources, even when feeding stations were available. However during seasons when food abundance and flight conditions were not limited, vultures seemed to favour light over heavy feeding stations, probably because of the reduced intraspecific competition and a pattern closer to the natural dispersion of resources in the landscape. Light feeding stations are interesting tools for managing food resources, but don't prevent vultures to feed at other places with possibly high risk of intoxication (poison).

To Eat or Not to Eat? Debris Selectivity by Marine Turtles

PubMed Central

Schuyler, Qamar; Hardesty, Britta Denise; Wilcox, Chris; Townsend, Kathy

2012-01-01

Marine debris is a growing problem for wildlife, and has been documented to affect more than 267 species worldwide. We investigated the prevalence of marine debris ingestion in 115 sea turtles stranded in Queensland between 2006–2011, and assessed how the ingestion rates differ between species (Eretmochelys imbricata vs. Chelonia mydas) and by turtle size class (smaller oceanic feeders vs. larger benthic feeders). Concurrently, we conducted 25 beach surveys to estimate the composition of the debris present in the marine environment. Based on this proxy measurement of debris availability, we modeled turtles’ debris preferences (color and type) using a resource selection function, a method traditionally used for habitat and food selection. We found no significant difference in the overall probability of ingesting debris between the two species studied, both of which have similar life histories. Curved carapace length, however, was inversely correlated with the probability of ingesting debris; 54.5% of pelagic sized turtles had ingested debris, whereas only 25% of benthic feeding turtles were found with debris in their gastrointestinal system. Benthic and pelagic sized turtles also exhibited different selectivity ratios for debris ingestion. Benthic phase turtles had a strong selectivity for soft, clear plastic, lending support to the hypothesis that sea turtles ingest debris because it resembles natural prey items such as jellyfish. Pelagic turtles were much less selective in their feeding, though they showed a trend towards selectivity for rubber items such as balloons. Most ingested items were plastic and were positively buoyant. This study highlights the need to address increasing amounts of plastic in the marine environment, and provides evidence for the disproportionate ingestion of balloons by marine turtles. PMID:22829894

Cueing spatial attention through timing and probability.

PubMed

Girardi, Giovanna; Antonucci, Gabriella; Nico, Daniele

2013-01-01

Even when focused on an effortful task we retain the ability to detect salient environmental information, and even irrelevant visual stimuli can be automatically detected. However, to which extent unattended information affects attentional control is not fully understood. Here we provide evidences of how the brain spontaneously organizes its cognitive resources by shifting attention between a selective-attending and a stimulus-driven modality within a single task. Using a spatial cueing paradigm we investigated the effect of cue-target asynchronies as a function of their probabilities of occurrence (i.e., relative frequency). Results show that this accessory information modulates attentional shifts. A valid spatial cue improved participants' performance as compared to an invalid one only in trials in which target onset was highly predictable because of its more robust occurrence. Conversely, cuing proved ineffective when spatial cue and target were associated according to a less frequent asynchrony. These patterns of response depended on asynchronies' probability and not on their duration. Our findings clearly demonstrate that through a fine decision-making, performed trial-by-trial, the brain utilizes implicit information to decide whether or not voluntarily shifting spatial attention. As if according to a cost-planning strategy, the cognitive effort of shifting attention depending on the cue is performed only when the expected advantages are higher. In a trade-off competition for cognitive resources, voluntary/automatic attending may thus be a more complex process than expected. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Saccade selection when reward probability is dynamically manipulated using Markov chains

PubMed Central

Lovejoy, Lee P.; Krauzlis, Richard J.

2012-01-01

Markov chains (stochastic processes where probabilities are assigned based on the previous outcome) are commonly used to examine the transitions between behavioral states, such as those that occur during foraging or social interactions. However, relatively little is known about how well primates can incorporate knowledge about Markov chains into their behavior. Saccadic eye movements are an example of a simple behavior influenced by information about probability, and thus are good candidates for testing whether subjects can learn Markov chains. In addition, when investigating the influence of probability on saccade target selection, the use of Markov chains could provide an alternative method that avoids confounds present in other task designs. To investigate these possibilities, we evaluated human behavior on a task in which stimulus reward probabilities were assigned using a Markov chain. On each trial, the subject selected one of four identical stimuli by saccade; after selection, feedback indicated the rewarded stimulus. Each session consisted of 200–600 trials, and on some sessions, the reward magnitude varied. On sessions with a uniform reward, subjects (n = 6) learned to select stimuli at a frequency close to reward probability, which is similar to human behavior on matching or probability classification tasks. When informed that a Markov chain assigned reward probabilities, subjects (n = 3) learned to select the greatest reward probability more often, bringing them close to behavior that maximizes reward. On sessions where reward magnitude varied across stimuli, subjects (n = 6) demonstrated preferences for both greater reward probability and greater reward magnitude, resulting in a preference for greater expected value (the product of reward probability and magnitude). These results demonstrate that Markov chains can be used to dynamically assign probabilities that are rapidly exploited by human subjects during saccade target selection. PMID:18330552

Saccade selection when reward probability is dynamically manipulated using Markov chains.

PubMed

Nummela, Samuel U; Lovejoy, Lee P; Krauzlis, Richard J

2008-05-01

Markov chains (stochastic processes where probabilities are assigned based on the previous outcome) are commonly used to examine the transitions between behavioral states, such as those that occur during foraging or social interactions. However, relatively little is known about how well primates can incorporate knowledge about Markov chains into their behavior. Saccadic eye movements are an example of a simple behavior influenced by information about probability, and thus are good candidates for testing whether subjects can learn Markov chains. In addition, when investigating the influence of probability on saccade target selection, the use of Markov chains could provide an alternative method that avoids confounds present in other task designs. To investigate these possibilities, we evaluated human behavior on a task in which stimulus reward probabilities were assigned using a Markov chain. On each trial, the subject selected one of four identical stimuli by saccade; after selection, feedback indicated the rewarded stimulus. Each session consisted of 200-600 trials, and on some sessions, the reward magnitude varied. On sessions with a uniform reward, subjects (n = 6) learned to select stimuli at a frequency close to reward probability, which is similar to human behavior on matching or probability classification tasks. When informed that a Markov chain assigned reward probabilities, subjects (n = 3) learned to select the greatest reward probability more often, bringing them close to behavior that maximizes reward. On sessions where reward magnitude varied across stimuli, subjects (n = 6) demonstrated preferences for both greater reward probability and greater reward magnitude, resulting in a preference for greater expected value (the product of reward probability and magnitude). These results demonstrate that Markov chains can be used to dynamically assign probabilities that are rapidly exploited by human subjects during saccade target selection.

Analyzing climate change impacts on water resources under uncertainty using an integrated simulation-optimization approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhuang, X. W.; Li, Y. P.; Nie, S.; Fan, Y. R.; Huang, G. H.

2018-01-01

An integrated simulation-optimization (ISO) approach is developed for assessing climate change impacts on water resources. In the ISO, uncertainties presented as both interval numbers and probability distributions can be reflected. Moreover, ISO permits in-depth analyses of various policy scenarios that are associated with different levels of economic consequences when the promised water-allocation targets are violated. A snowmelt-precipitation-driven watershed (Kaidu watershed) in northwest China is selected as the study case for demonstrating the applicability of the proposed method. Results of meteorological projections disclose that the incremental trend of temperature (e.g., minimum and maximum values) and precipitation exist. Results also reveal that (i) the system uncertainties would significantly affect water resources allocation pattern (including target and shortage); (ii) water shortage would be enhanced from 2016 to 2070; and (iii) the more the inflow amount decreases, the higher estimated water shortage rates are. The ISO method is useful for evaluating climate change impacts within a watershed system with complicated uncertainties and helping identify appropriate water resources management strategies hedging against drought.

PROBABILITY SURVEYS , CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES AND ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

We show that probability-based environmental resource monitoring programs, such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (U.S. EPA) Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program, and conditional probability analysis can serve as a basis for estimating ecological risk over ...

PROBABILITY SURVEYS, CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES, AND ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

We show that probability-based environmental resource monitoring programs, such as U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (U.S. EPA) Environmental Monitoring and Asscssment Program EMAP) can be analyzed with a conditional probability analysis (CPA) to conduct quantitative probabi...

SELWAY-BITTERROOT WILDERNESS, IDAHO AND MONTANA.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Toth, Margo I.; Zilka, Nicholas T.

1984-01-01

Mineral-resource studies of the Selway-Bitterroot Wilderness in Idaho County, Idaho, and Missoula and Ravalli Counties, Montana, were carried out. Four areas with probable and one small area of substantiated mineral-resource potential were recognized. The areas of the Running Creek, Painted Rocks, and Whistling Pig plutons of Tertiary age have probable resource potential for molybdenum, although detailed geochemical sampling and surface investigations failed to recognize mineralized systems at the surface. Randomly distributed breccia zones along a fault in the vicinity of the Cliff mine have a substantiated potential for small silver-copper-lead resources.

CHARLES SHELDON ANTELOPE RANGE AND SHELDON NATIONAL ANTELOPE REFUGE, NEVADA AND OREGON.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cathrall, J.B.; Tuchek, E.T.

1984-01-01

A mineral survey of the Charles Sheldon Antelope Range and Sheldon National Antelope Refuge, in Humboldt and Washoe Counties, Nevada, and Lake and Harney Counties, Oregon, was conducted. The investigation identified areas of mineral-resource potential within the range and refuge. The range and refuge have areas of substantiated resource potential for precious opal and uranium, a demonstrated resource of decorative building stone, and areas with probable resource potential for mercury and for base- and precious-metal sulfide deposits. Reservoir temperatures, estimated from the analysis of thermal springs, indicate that a probable potential for geothermal resources exists in two areas in the range. No other energy resources were identitied in the area.

Movement ecology: size-specific behavioral response of an invasive snail to food availability.

PubMed

Snider, Sunny B; Gilliam, James F

2008-07-01

Immigration, emigration, migration, and redistribution describe processes that involve movement of individuals. These movements are an essential part of contemporary ecological models, and understanding how movement is affected by biotic and abiotic factors is important for effectively modeling ecological processes that depend on movement. We asked how phenotypic heterogeneity (body size) and environmental heterogeneity (food resource level) affect the movement behavior of an aquatic snail (Tarebia granifera), and whether including these phenotypic and environmental effects improves advection-diffusion models of movement. We postulated various elaborations of the basic advection diffusion model as a priori working hypotheses. To test our hypotheses we measured individual snail movements in experimental streams at high- and low-food resource treatments. Using these experimental movement data, we examined the dependency of model selection on resource level and body size using Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC). At low resources, large individuals moved faster than small individuals, producing a platykurtic movement distribution; including size dependency in the model improved model performance. In stark contrast, at high resources, individuals moved upstream together as a wave, and body size differences largely disappeared. The model selection exercise indicated that population heterogeneity is best described by the advection component of movement for this species, because the top-ranked model included size dependency in advection, but not diffusion. Also, all probable models included resource dependency. Thus population and environmental heterogeneities both influence individual movement behaviors and the population-level distribution kernels, and their interaction may drive variation in movement behaviors in terms of both advection rates and diffusion rates. A behaviorally informed modeling framework will integrate the sentient response of individuals in terms of movement and enhance our ability to accurately model ecological processes that depend on animal movement.

Effect of risk aversion on prioritizing conservation projects.

PubMed

Tulloch, Ayesha I T; Maloney, Richard F; Joseph, Liana N; Bennett, Joseph R; Di Fonzo, Martina M I; Probert, William J M; O'Connor, Shaun M; Densem, Jodie P; Possingham, Hugh P

2015-04-01

Conservation outcomes are uncertain. Agencies making decisions about what threat mitigation actions to take to save which species frequently face the dilemma of whether to invest in actions with high probability of success and guaranteed benefits or to choose projects with a greater risk of failure that might provide higher benefits if they succeed. The answer to this dilemma lies in the decision maker's aversion to risk--their unwillingness to accept uncertain outcomes. Little guidance exists on how risk preferences affect conservation investment priorities. Using a prioritization approach based on cost effectiveness, we compared 2 approaches: a conservative probability threshold approach that excludes investment in projects with a risk of management failure greater than a fixed level, and a variance-discounting heuristic used in economics that explicitly accounts for risk tolerance and the probabilities of management success and failure. We applied both approaches to prioritizing projects for 700 of New Zealand's threatened species across 8303 management actions. Both decision makers' risk tolerance and our choice of approach to dealing with risk preferences drove the prioritization solution (i.e., the species selected for management). Use of a probability threshold minimized uncertainty, but more expensive projects were selected than with variance discounting, which maximized expected benefits by selecting the management of species with higher extinction risk and higher conservation value. Explicitly incorporating risk preferences within the decision making process reduced the number of species expected to be safe from extinction because lower risk tolerance resulted in more species being excluded from management, but the approach allowed decision makers to choose a level of acceptable risk that fit with their ability to accommodate failure. We argue for transparency in risk tolerance and recommend that decision makers accept risk in an adaptive management framework to maximize benefits and avoid potential extinctions due to inefficient allocation of limited resources. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

Probability Surveys, Conditional Probability, and Ecological Risk Assessment

EPA Science Inventory

We show that probability-based environmental resource monitoring programs, such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (U.S. EPA) Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program, and conditional probability analysis can serve as a basis for estimating ecological risk over ...

FASP, an analytic resource appraisal program for petroleum play analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Crovelli, R.A.; Balay, R.H.

1986-01-01

An analytic probabilistic methodology for resource appraisal of undiscovered oil and gas resources in play analysis is presented in a FORTRAN program termed FASP. This play-analysis methodology is a geostochastic system for petroleum resource appraisal in explored as well as frontier areas. An established geologic model considers both the uncertainty of the presence of the assessed hydrocarbon and its amount if present. The program FASP produces resource estimates of crude oil, nonassociated gas, dissolved gas, and gas for a geologic play in terms of probability distributions. The analytic method is based upon conditional probability theory and many laws of expectation and variance. ?? 1986.

ANDREWS MOUNTAIN, MAZOURKA, AND PAIUTE ROADLESS AREAS, CALIFORNIA.

USGS Publications Warehouse

McKee, Edwin H.; Schmauch, Steven W.

1984-01-01

On the basis of a mineral survey, local areas near and within the Andrews Mountain, Mazourka, and Paiute Roadless Areas, California have probable and substantiated mineral-resource potential. The principal metallic mineral resources in these roadless areas are gold, copper, and silver with lead, zinc, and tungsten, as lesser resources. A zone of probable resource potential for talc, graphite, and marble is identified in the Mazourka Roadless Area. Metallic mineralization occurs mostly in vein deposits in silicic and carbonate metasedimentary rocks peripheral to Mesozoic plutons and locally in granitic rocks as well. There is little promise for the occurrence of fossil fuel resources in the roadless areas.

Probability of success for phase III after exploratory biomarker analysis in phase II.

PubMed

Götte, Heiko; Kirchner, Marietta; Sailer, Martin Oliver

2017-05-01

The probability of success or average power describes the potential of a future trial by weighting the power with a probability distribution of the treatment effect. The treatment effect estimate from a previous trial can be used to define such a distribution. During the development of targeted therapies, it is common practice to look for predictive biomarkers. The consequence is that the trial population for phase III is often selected on the basis of the most extreme result from phase II biomarker subgroup analyses. In such a case, there is a tendency to overestimate the treatment effect. We investigate whether the overestimation of the treatment effect estimate from phase II is transformed into a positive bias for the probability of success for phase III. We simulate a phase II/III development program for targeted therapies. This simulation allows to investigate selection probabilities and allows to compare the estimated with the true probability of success. We consider the estimated probability of success with and without subgroup selection. Depending on the true treatment effects, there is a negative bias without selection because of the weighting by the phase II distribution. In comparison, selection increases the estimated probability of success. Thus, selection does not lead to a bias in probability of success if underestimation due to the phase II distribution and overestimation due to selection cancel each other out. We recommend to perform similar simulations in practice to get the necessary information about the risk and chances associated with such subgroup selection designs. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The mediating effect of psychosocial factors on suicidal probability among adolescents.

PubMed

Hur, Ji-Won; Kim, Won-Joong; Kim, Yong-Ku

2011-01-01

Suicidal probability is an actual tendency including negative self-evaluation, hopelessness, suicidal ideation, and hostility. The purpose of this study was to examine the role of psychosocial variances in the suicidal probability of adolescents, especially the role of mediating variance. This study investigated the mediating effects of psychosocial factors such as depression, anxiety, self-esteem, stress, and social support on the suicidal probability among 1,586 adolescents attending middle and high schools in the Kyunggi Province area of South Korea. The relationship between depression and anxiety/suicidal probability was mediated by both social resources and self-esteem. Furthermore, the influence of social resources was mediated by interpersonal and achievement stress as well as self-esteem. This study suggests that suicidal probability in adolescents has various relationships, including mediating relations, with several psychosocial factors. The interventions on suicidal probability in adolescents should focus on social factors as well as clinical symptoms.

VASQUEZ PEAK WILDERNESS STUDY AREA, AND ST. LOUIS PEAK, AND WILLIAMS FORK ROADLESS AREAS, COLORADO.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Theobald, P.K.; Bielski, A.M.

1984-01-01

A mineral-resource survey was conducted during the years 1979-82 in the Vasquez Peak Wilderness Study Area and in the St. Louis Peak and Williams Fork Roadless Areas, central Front Range, Colorado. Probable resource potential for the occurrence of copper, lead, zinc, and silver in massive sulfide deposits has been identified in calcareous metamorphic rocks in the northern part of the St. Louis Peak Roadless Area and in the southern part of the Williams Fork Roadless Area. A probable resource potential for vein-type uranium deposits is identified along the Berthoud Pass fault zone in the eastern part of the Vasquez Peak Wilderness Study Area. A large area encompassing the eastern and southeastern part of each of the three areas has probable and substantiated potential for either high-grade lead-zinc-silver vein deposits, or larger, lower-grade clustered vein deposits. A probable resource potential for stockwork molybdenum deposits related to porphyry molybdenum type mineralization exists beneath the lead-zinc-silver-rich veins. The nature of the geologic terrane indicates little likelihood for the occurrence of organic fuels.

Probabilistic streamflow forecasting for hydroelectricity production: A comparison of two non-parametric system identification algorithms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pande, Saket; Sharma, Ashish

2014-05-01

This study is motivated by the need to robustly specify, identify, and forecast runoff generation processes for hydroelectricity production. It atleast requires the identification of significant predictors of runoff generation and the influence of each such significant predictor on runoff response. To this end, we compare two non-parametric algorithms of predictor subset selection. One is based on information theory that assesses predictor significance (and hence selection) based on Partial Information (PI) rationale of Sharma and Mehrotra (2014). The other algorithm is based on a frequentist approach that uses bounds on probability of error concept of Pande (2005), assesses all possible predictor subsets on-the-go and converges to a predictor subset in an computationally efficient manner. Both the algorithms approximate the underlying system by locally constant functions and select predictor subsets corresponding to these functions. The performance of the two algorithms is compared on a set of synthetic case studies as well as a real world case study of inflow forecasting. References: Sharma, A., and R. Mehrotra (2014), An information theoretic alternative to model a natural system using observational information alone, Water Resources Research, 49, doi:10.1002/2013WR013845. Pande, S. (2005), Generalized local learning in water resource management, PhD dissertation, Utah State University, UT-USA, 148p.

The probability distribution model of air pollution index and its dominants in Kuala Lumpur

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

AL-Dhurafi, Nasr Ahmed; Razali, Ahmad Mahir; Masseran, Nurulkamal; Zamzuri, Zamira Hasanah

2016-11-01

This paper focuses on the statistical modeling for the distributions of air pollution index (API) and its sub-indexes data observed at Kuala Lumpur in Malaysia. Five pollutants or sub-indexes are measured including, carbon monoxide (CO); sulphur dioxide (SO2); nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and; particulate matter (PM10). Four probability distributions are considered, namely log-normal, exponential, Gamma and Weibull in search for the best fit distribution to the Malaysian air pollutants data. In order to determine the best distribution for describing the air pollutants data, five goodness-of-fit criteria's are applied. This will help in minimizing the uncertainty in pollution resource estimates and improving the assessment phase of planning. The conflict in criterion results for selecting the best distribution was overcome by using the weight of ranks method. We found that the Gamma distribution is the best distribution for the majority of air pollutants data in Kuala Lumpur.

A Scalable QoS-Aware VoD Resource Sharing Scheme for Next Generation Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Chenn-Jung; Luo, Yun-Cheng; Chen, Chun-Hua; Hu, Kai-Wen

In network-aware concept, applications are aware of network conditions and are adaptable to the varying environment to achieve acceptable and predictable performance. In this work, a solution for video on demand service that integrates wireless and wired networks by using the network aware concepts is proposed to reduce the blocking probability and dropping probability of mobile requests. Fuzzy logic inference system is employed to select appropriate cache relay nodes to cache published video streams and distribute them to different peers through service oriented architecture (SOA). SIP-based control protocol and IMS standard are adopted to ensure the possibility of heterogeneous communication and provide a framework for delivering real-time multimedia services over an IP-based network to ensure interoperability, roaming, and end-to-end session management. The experimental results demonstrate that effectiveness and practicability of the proposed work.

Site Selection and Resource Allocation of Oil Spill Emergency Base for Offshore Oil Facilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yunbin; Liu, Jingxian; Wei, Lei; Wu, Weihuang

2018-02-01

Based on the analysis of the historical data about oil spill accidents in the Bohai Sea, this paper discretizes oil spilled source into a limited number of spill points. According to the probability of oil spill risk, the demand for salvage forces at each oil spill point is evaluated. Aiming at the specific location of the rescue base around the Bohai Sea, a cost-benefit analysis is conducted to determine the total cost of disasters for each rescue base. Based on the relationship between the oil spill point and the rescue site, a multi-objective optimization location model for the oil spill rescue base in the Bohai Sea region is established. And the genetic algorithm is used to solve the optimization problem, and determine the emergency rescue base optimization program and emergency resources allocation ratio.

Genetic Algorithms and Classification Trees in Feature Discovery: Diabetes and the NHANES database

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Heredia-Langner, Alejandro; Jarman, Kristin H.; Amidan, Brett G.

2013-09-01

This paper presents a feature selection methodology that can be applied to datasets containing a mixture of continuous and categorical variables. Using a Genetic Algorithm (GA), this method explores a dataset and selects a small set of features relevant for the prediction of a binary (1/0) response. Binary classification trees and an objective function based on conditional probabilities are used to measure the fitness of a given subset of features. The method is applied to health data in order to find factors useful for the prediction of diabetes. Results show that our algorithm is capable of narrowing down the setmore » of predictors to around 8 factors that can be validated using reputable medical and public health resources.« less

Integrating Geologic, Geochemical and Geophysical Data in a Statistical Analysis of Geothermal Resource Probability across the State of Hawaii

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lautze, N. C.; Ito, G.; Thomas, D. M.; Hinz, N.; Frazer, L. N.; Waller, D.

2015-12-01

Hawaii offers the opportunity to gain knowledge and develop geothermal energy on the only oceanic hotspot in the U.S. As a remote island state, Hawaii is more dependent on imported fossil fuel than any other state in the U.S., and energy prices are 3 to 4 times higher than the national average. The only proven resource, located on Hawaii Island's active Kilauea volcano, is a region of high geologic risk; other regions of probable resource exist but lack adequate assessment. The last comprehensive statewide geothermal assessment occurred in 1983 and found a potential resource on all islands (Hawaii Institute of Geophysics, 1983). Phase 1 of a Department of Energy funded project to assess the probability of geothermal resource potential statewide in Hawaii was recently completed. The execution of this project was divided into three main tasks: (1) compile all historical and current data for Hawaii that is relevant to geothermal resources into a single Geographic Information System (GIS) project; (2) analyze and rank these datasets in terms of their relevance to the three primary properties of a viable geothermal resource: heat (H), fluid (F), and permeability (P); and (3) develop and apply a Bayesian statistical method to incorporate the ranks and produce probability models that map out Hawaii's geothermal resource potential. Here, we summarize the project methodology and present maps that highlight both high prospect areas as well as areas that lack enough data to make an adequate assessment. We suggest a path for future exploration activities in Hawaii, and discuss how this method of analysis can be adapted to other regions and other types of resources. The figure below shows multiple layers of GIS data for Hawaii Island. Color shades indicate crustal density anomalies produced from inversions of gravity (Flinders et al. 2013). Superimposed on this are mapped calderas, rift zones, volcanic cones, and faults (following Sherrod et al., 2007). These features were used to identify probable locations of intrusive rock (heat) and permeability.

Contrast statistics for foveated visual systems: fixation selection by minimizing contrast entropy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raj, Raghu; Geisler, Wilson S.; Frazor, Robert A.; Bovik, Alan C.

2005-10-01

The human visual system combines a wide field of view with a high-resolution fovea and uses eye, head, and body movements to direct the fovea to potentially relevant locations in the visual scene. This strategy is sensible for a visual system with limited neural resources. However, for this strategy to be effective, the visual system needs sophisticated central mechanisms that efficiently exploit the varying spatial resolution of the retina. To gain insight into some of the design requirements of these central mechanisms, we have analyzed the effects of variable spatial resolution on local contrast in 300 calibrated natural images. Specifically, for each retinal eccentricity (which produces a certain effective level of blur), and for each value of local contrast observed at that eccentricity, we measured the probability distribution of the local contrast in the unblurred image. These conditional probability distributions can be regarded as posterior probability distributions for the ``true'' unblurred contrast, given an observed contrast at a given eccentricity. We find that these conditional probability distributions are adequately described by a few simple formulas. To explore how these statistics might be exploited by central perceptual mechanisms, we consider the task of selecting successive fixation points, where the goal on each fixation is to maximize total contrast information gained about the image (i.e., minimize total contrast uncertainty). We derive an entropy minimization algorithm and find that it performs optimally at reducing total contrast uncertainty and that it also works well at reducing the mean squared error between the original image and the image reconstructed from the multiple fixations. Our results show that measurements of local contrast alone could efficiently drive the scan paths of the eye when the goal is to gain as much information about the spatial structure of a scene as possible.

A polygon-based modeling approach to assess exposure of resources and assets to wildfire

Treesearch

Matthew P. Thompson; Joe Scott; Jeffrey D. Kaiden; Julie W. Gilbertson-Day

2013-01-01

Spatially explicit burn probability modeling is increasingly applied to assess wildfire risk and inform mitigation strategy development. Burn probabilities are typically expressed on a per-pixel basis, calculated as the number of times a pixel burns divided by the number of simulation iterations. Spatial intersection of highly valued resources and assets (HVRAs) with...

ITALIAN PEAK AND ITALIAN PEAK MIDDLE ROADLESS AREAS, IDAHO AND MONTANA.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Skipp, Betty; Lambeth, Robert H.

1984-01-01

The Italian Peak and Italian Peak Middle Roadless Areas, in southwestern Montana and east-central Idaho, contain areas of probable mineral-resource potential based on combined geologic, geophysical, and geochemical studies and prospect examination. Small areas along the western, southern, and northeastern boundaries of the roadless areas have probable mineral resource potential for zinc, lead, silver, and uranium. An area of probable resource potential just east of and including a part of the Birch Creek mining district, may contain stratabound and fault-controlled silver and base metals, even though geochemical anomalies are low, and extensive prospecting has not identified any significant mineralization. The roadless areas are a part of the overthrust belt, and oil and gas possibilities must be assessed.

SAVAGE RUN WILDERNESS, WYOMING.

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCallum, M.E.; Kluender, Steven E.

1984-01-01

Mineral evaluation and related surveys were conducted in the Savage Run Wilderness in Wyoming and results of these studies indicate probable mineral-resource potential in four areas. Gold and (or) silver mineralization in veins associated with faults was found in two areas; all known occurrences inside the wilderness are very small in size. Slightly anomalous values of platinum, palladium, and nickel were recorded from rock-chip and stream- sediment samples from the southeast portion of the wilderness where layered mafic rocks predominate, and a probable resource potential exists for platinum, palladium, and nickel. An area of sheared rocks in the northeastern corner of the wilderness has a probable resource potential for copper. The nature of the geologic terrane precludes the occurrence of organic fuels.

Wildfire exposure analysis on the national forests in the Pacific Northwest, USA.

PubMed

Ager, Alan A; Buonopane, Michelle; Reger, Allison; Finney, Mark A

2013-06-01

We analyzed wildfire exposure for key social and ecological features on the national forests in Oregon and Washington. The forests contain numerous urban interfaces, old growth forests, recreational sites, and habitat for rare and endangered species. Many of these resources are threatened by wildfire, especially in the east Cascade Mountains fire-prone forests. The study illustrates the application of wildfire simulation for risk assessment where the major threat is from large and rare naturally ignited fires, versus many previous studies that have focused on risk driven by frequent and small fires from anthropogenic ignitions. Wildfire simulation modeling was used to characterize potential wildfire behavior in terms of annual burn probability and flame length. Spatial data on selected social and ecological features were obtained from Forest Service GIS databases and elsewhere. The potential wildfire behavior was then summarized for each spatial location of each resource. The analysis suggested strong spatial variation in both burn probability and conditional flame length for many of the features examined, including biodiversity, urban interfaces, and infrastructure. We propose that the spatial patterns in modeled wildfire behavior could be used to improve existing prioritization of fuel management and wildfire preparedness activities within the Pacific Northwest region. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

Principal thorium resources in the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Staatz, Mortimer Hay; Armbrustmacher, T.J.; Olson, J.C.; Brownfield, I.K.; Brock, M.R.; Lemons, J.F.; Coppa, L.V.; Clingan, B.V.

1979-01-01

Resources were assessed for thorium in the higher grade and better known deposits in the United States in: (1) veins, (2) massive carbonatites, (3) stream placers of North and South Carolina, and (4) disseminated deposits. Thorium resources for the first three categories were divided into reserves and probable potential resources. Each of these then were separated into the following cost categories: (1) the amount of ThO2 producible at less than $15 per pound, (2) the amount producible at between $15 and $30 per pound, and (3) the amount producible at more than $50 per pound. The type of mining and milling needed at each deposit determines the capital, operating, and fixed costs of both mining and milling. Costs start with the clearing of land and are carried through to the final product, which for all deposits is ThO2. Capital costs of mining are affected most by the type of mining and the size of the mine. Those of milling are affected most by the kind of mill, its size, and whether or not extra circuits are needed for the separation of rare earths or some other byproduct. Veins, massive carbonatites, and stream placers of North and South Carolina have reserves of 188,000 short tons of ThO2 and probable potential resources of 505,000 tons of ThO2. Approximately half of the reserves and probable potential resources can be produced at less than $30 per pound of ThO2. Veins are the highest grade source in the United States and have total reserves of 142,000 tons of ThO2 and probable potential resources of 343,000 tons. About 90 percent of the reserves and 91 percent of the probable potential resources can be produced at less than $15 per pound of ThO2. Seven vein districts were evaluated: (1) Lemhi Pass, Mont.-Idaho, (2) Wet Mountains, Colo., (3) Powderhorn, Colo., (4) Hall Mountain, Idaho, (5) Diamond Creek, Idaho, (6) Bear Lodge Mountains, Wyo. and (7) Mountain Pass, Calif. Eighty-seven percent of the total reserves and probable potential resources are in the Lemhi Pass and Wet Mountains Districts. The first district has reserves of 68,000 tons of ThO2 and probable potential resources of 124,000 tons that can be produced at less than $15 per pound; the second district has 54,000 tons of reserves and 141,000 tons of probable potential resources producible at less than $15 per pound. Rare earths are a common byproduct, and in many veins they are from one-half to several times as abundant as thorium. Massive carbonatite bodies are large-tonnage low-grade deposits. Thorium in these deposits would be a byproduct either of rare earth or of niobium mining. The Iron Hill carbonatite body in the Powderhorn district, Colorado, and the Sulfide Queen carbonatite body in the Mountain Pass district, California, were evaluated. These two deposits contain 40,800 tons of ThO2 in reserves and 125,000 tons of ThO2 in probable potential resources. More than 80 percent of this total is in the Iron Hill carbonatite. This thorium is entirely a byproduct and is producible at less than $15 per pound of ThO2. The Sulphide Queen massive carbonatite deposit was being mined in 1977 for rare earths, and thorium could be recovered by adding an extra circuit to the existing mill. Stream placers in North and South Carolina occur both in the Piedmont and just east of the Fall Line. The reserves of these deposits total 5,270 tons of ThO2, and the probable potential resources are 36,800 tons of ThO2. The Piedmont placers are all too small to produce ThO2 at a cost of less than $50 per pound. One placer on Hollow Creek, S.C., just east of the Fall Line had reserves of 2,040 tons of ThO2 that is producible at between $15 and $30 per pound. Thorium occurs in monazite in these placers. Other heavy minerals that would be recovered with the monazite include rutile, zircon, and ilmenite. In addition to thorium, monazite contains large amounts of rare earths and small amounts of uranium; both can be recovered during the process that separates thorium fr

Geothermal energy: opportunities for California commerce. Phase I report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Longyear, A.B.

1981-12-01

The potential geothermal direct-use energy market and its application to projects in California are assessed. Project identification effort is to be focused on those that have the highest probability for near-term successful commercial operations. Near-term herein means 2 to 5 years for project implementation. Phase I has been focused on defining and assessing: (1) the geothermal direct-use resources that are suitable for near-term utilization; and (2) the generic applications (municipal heating districts, horticultural greenhouse firms, laundries, etc.) that are suitable for near-term projects. Five economic development regions in the state, containing recognized geothermal direct-use resources, have been defined. Thirty-eight directmore » use resources have been evaluated in these regions. After assessment against pre-selected criteria, twenty-seven have been rated with a priority of I, II or III, thereby qualifying them for further marketing effort. The five areas with a priority of I are summarized. These areas have no perceived impediments to near-term development. Twenty-nine generic categories of applications were assessed against previously selected criteria to determine their near term potential for direct use of geothermal fluids. Some twenty industry, commercial and institutional application categories were rated with a priority of I, II or III and warrant further marketing efforts. The seven categories with a priority of I are listed. These categories were found to have the least impediments to near-term application projects.« less

Uranium resource assessment by the Geological Survey; methodology and plan to update the national resource base

USGS Publications Warehouse

Finch, Warren Irvin; McCammon, Richard B.

1987-01-01

Based on the Memorandum of Understanding {MOU) of September 20, 1984, between the U.S. Geological Survey of the U.S. Department of Interior and the Energy Information Administration {EIA) of the U.S. Department of Energy {DOE), the U.S. Geological Survey began to make estimates of the undiscovered uranium endowment of selected areas of the United States in 1985. A modified NURE {National Uranium Resource Evaluation) method will be used in place of the standard NURE method of the DOE that was used for the national assessment reported in October 1980. The modified method, here named the 'deposit-size-frequency' {DSF) method, is presented for the first time, and calculations by the two methods are compared using an illustrative example based on preliminary estimates for the first area to be evaluated under the MOU. The results demonstrate that the estimate of the endowment using the DSF method is significantly larger and more uncertain than the estimate obtained by the NURE method. We believe that the DSF method produces a more realistic estimate because the principal factor estimated in the endowment equation is disaggregated into more parts and is more closely tied to specific geologic knowledge than by the NURE method. The DSF method consists of modifying the standard NURE estimation equation, U=AxFxTxG, by replacing the factors FxT by a single factor that represents the tonnage for the total number of deposits in all size classes. Use of the DSF method requires that the size frequency of deposits in a known or control area has been established and that the relation of the size-frequency distribution of deposits to probable controlling geologic factors has been determined. Using these relations, the principal scientist {PS) first estimates the number and range of size classes and then, for each size class, estimates the lower limit, most likely value, and upper limit of the numbers of deposits in the favorable area. Once these probable estimates have been refined by elicitation of the PS, they are entered into the DSF equation, and the probability distribution of estimates of undiscovered uranium endowment is calculated using a slight modification of the program by Ford and McLaren (1980). The EIA study of the viability of the domestic uranium industry requires an annual appraisal of the U.S. uranium resource situation. During DOE's NURE Program, which was terminated in 1983, a thorough assessment of the Nation's resources was completed. A comprehensive reevaluation of uranium resource base for the entire United States is not possible for each annual appraisal. A few areas are in need of future study, however, because of new developments in either scientific knowledge, industry exploration, or both. Four geologic environments have been selected for study by the U.S. Geological Survey in the next several years: (1) surficial uranium deposits throughout the conterminous United States, (2) uranium in collapse-breccia pipes in the Grand Canyon region of Arizona, (3) uranium in Tertiary sedimentary rocks of the Northern Great Plains, and (4) uranium in metamorphic rocks of the Piedmont province in the eastern States. In addition to participation in the National uranium resource assessment, the U.S. Geological Survey will take part in activities of the Nuclear Energy Agency of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and those of the International Atomic Energy Agency.

The oilspill risk analysis model of the U. S. Geological Survey

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, R.A.; Slack, J.R.; Wyant, Timothy; Lanfear, K.J.

1982-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey has developed an oilspill risk analysis model to aid in estimating the environmental hazards of developing oil resources in Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) lease areas. The large, computerized model analyzes the probability of spill occurrence, as well as the likely paths or trajectories of spills in relation to the locations of recreational and biological resources which may be vulnerable. The analytical methodology can easily incorporate estimates of weathering rates , slick dispersion, and possible mitigating effects of cleanup. The probability of spill occurrence is estimated from information on the anticipated level of oil production and method of route of transport. Spill movement is modeled in Monte Carlo fashion with a sample of 500 spills per season, each transported by monthly surface current vectors and wind velocities sampled from 3-hour wind transition matrices. Transition matrices are based on historic wind records grouped in 41 wind velocity classes, and are constructed seasonally for up to six wind stations. Locations and monthly vulnerabilities of up to 31 categories of environmental resources are digitized within an 800,000 square kilometer study area. Model output includes tables of conditional impact probabilities (that is, the probability of hitting a target, given that a spill has occured), as well as probability distributions for oilspills occurring and contacting environmental resources within preselected vulnerability time horizons. (USGS)

The oilspill risk analysis model of the U. S. Geological Survey

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, R.A.; Slack, J.R.; Wyant, T.; Lanfear, K.J.

1980-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey has developed an oilspill risk analysis model to aid in estimating the environmental hazards of developing oil resources in Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) lease areas. The large, computerized model analyzes the probability of spill occurrence, as well as the likely paths or trajectories of spills in relation to the locations of recreational and biological resources which may be vulnerable. The analytical methodology can easily incorporate estimates of weathering rates , slick dispersion, and possible mitigating effects of cleanup. The probability of spill occurrence is estimated from information on the anticipated level of oil production and method and route of transport. Spill movement is modeled in Monte Carlo fashion with a sample of 500 spills per season, each transported by monthly surface current vectors and wind velocities sampled from 3-hour wind transition matrices. Transition matrices are based on historic wind records grouped in 41 wind velocity classes, and are constructed seasonally for up to six wind stations. Locations and monthly vulnerabilities of up to 31 categories of environmental resources are digitized within an 800,000 square kilometer study area. Model output includes tables of conditional impact probabilities (that is, the probability of hitting a target, given that a spill has occurred), as well as probability distributions for oilspills occurring and contacting environmental resources within preselected vulnerability time horizons. (USGS)

BUFFALO PEAKS WILDERNESS STUDY AREA, COLORADO.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hedlund, D.C.; Wood, R.H.

1984-01-01

Field investigations were conducted to evaluate the mineral-resource potential of the Buffalo Peaks Wilderness Study Area, Colorado. On the basis of this study there is a probable mineral-resource potential for silver vein and bedding replacement deposits along the Weston Pass fault zone, for hydrothermal vein-type uranium deposits in the vicinity of the Parkdale iron pit, and for gold vein deposits in the parts of the Granite and Four Mile districts that are within the wilderness study area. A probable barite resource potential occurs at Rough and Tumbling Creek and near Spring Creek on the east side of the study area. There is little promise for the occurrence of energy resources.

Does Wyoming's Core Area Policy Protect Winter Habitats for Greater Sage-Grouse?

PubMed

Smith, Kurt T; Beck, Jeffrey L; Pratt, Aaron C

2016-10-01

Conservation reserves established to protect important habitat for wildlife species are used world-wide as a wildlife conservation measure. Effective reserves must adequately protect year-round habitats to maintain wildlife populations. Wyoming's Sage-Grouse Core Area policy was established to protect breeding habitats for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus). Protecting only one important seasonal habitat could result in loss or degradation of other important habitats and potential declines in local populations. The purpose of our study was to identify the timing of winter habitat use, the extent which individuals breeding in Core Areas used winter habitats, and develop resource selection functions to assess effectiveness of Core Areas in conserving sage-grouse winter habitats in portions of 5 Core Areas in central and north-central Wyoming during winters 2011-2015. We found that use of winter habitats occured over a longer period than current Core Area winter timing stipulations and a substantial amount of winter habitat outside of Core Areas was used by individuals that bred in Core Areas, particularly in smaller Core Areas. Resource selection functions for each study area indicated that sage-grouse were selecting habitats in response to landscapes dominated by big sagebrush and flatter topography similar to other research on sage-grouse winter habitat selection. The substantial portion of sage-grouse locations and predicted probability of selection during winter outside small Core Areas illustrate that winter requirements for sage-grouse are not adequately met by existing Core Areas. Consequently, further considerations for identifying and managing important winter sage-grouse habitats under Wyoming's Core Area Policy are warranted.

An optimization method of VON mapping for energy efficiency and routing in elastic optical networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Huanlin; Xiong, Cuilian; Chen, Yong; Li, Changping; Chen, Derun

2018-03-01

To improve resources utilization efficiency, network virtualization in elastic optical networks has been developed by sharing the same physical network for difference users and applications. In the process of virtual nodes mapping, longer paths between physical nodes will consume more spectrum resources and energy. To address the problem, we propose a virtual optical network mapping algorithm called genetic multi-objective optimize virtual optical network mapping algorithm (GM-OVONM-AL), which jointly optimizes the energy consumption and spectrum resources consumption in the process of virtual optical network mapping. Firstly, a vector function is proposed to balance the energy consumption and spectrum resources by optimizing population classification and crowding distance sorting. Then, an adaptive crossover operator based on hierarchical comparison is proposed to improve search ability and convergence speed. In addition, the principle of the survival of the fittest is introduced to select better individual according to the relationship of domination rank. Compared with the spectrum consecutiveness-opaque virtual optical network mapping-algorithm and baseline-opaque virtual optical network mapping algorithm, simulation results show the proposed GM-OVONM-AL can achieve the lowest bandwidth blocking probability and save the energy consumption.

Remembrance of inferences past: Amortization in human hypothesis generation.

PubMed

Dasgupta, Ishita; Schulz, Eric; Goodman, Noah D; Gershman, Samuel J

2018-05-21

Bayesian models of cognition assume that people compute probability distributions over hypotheses. However, the required computations are frequently intractable or prohibitively expensive. Since people often encounter many closely related distributions, selective reuse of computations (amortized inference) is a computationally efficient use of the brain's limited resources. We present three experiments that provide evidence for amortization in human probabilistic reasoning. When sequentially answering two related queries about natural scenes, participants' responses to the second query systematically depend on the structure of the first query. This influence is sensitive to the content of the queries, only appearing when the queries are related. Using a cognitive load manipulation, we find evidence that people amortize summary statistics of previous inferences, rather than storing the entire distribution. These findings support the view that the brain trades off accuracy and computational cost, to make efficient use of its limited cognitive resources to approximate probabilistic inference. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Bayesics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skilling, John

2005-11-01

This tutorial gives a basic overview of Bayesian methodology, from its axiomatic foundation through the conventional development of data analysis and model selection to its rôle in quantum mechanics, and ending with some comments on inference in general human affairs. The central theme is that probability calculus is the unique language within which we can develop models of our surroundings that have predictive capability. These models are patterns of belief; there is no need to claim external reality. 1. Logic and probability 2. Probability and inference 3. Probability and model selection 4. Prior probabilities 5. Probability and frequency 6. Probability and quantum mechanics 7. Probability and fundamentalism 8. Probability and deception 9. Prediction and truth

VARIANCE ESTIMATION FOR SPATIALLY BALANCED SAMPLES OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES

EPA Science Inventory

The spatial distribution of a natural resource is an important consideration in designing an efficient survey or monitoring program for the resource. We review a unified strategy for designing probability samples of discrete, finite resource populations, such as lakes within som...

Statistics Online Computational Resource for Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dinov, Ivo D.; Christou, Nicolas

2009-01-01

The Statistics Online Computational Resource (http://www.SOCR.ucla.edu) provides one of the largest collections of free Internet-based resources for probability and statistics education. SOCR develops, validates and disseminates two core types of materials--instructional resources and computational libraries. (Contains 2 figures.)

Using GIS to generate spatially balanced random survey designs for natural resource applications.

PubMed

Theobald, David M; Stevens, Don L; White, Denis; Urquhart, N Scott; Olsen, Anthony R; Norman, John B

2007-07-01

Sampling of a population is frequently required to understand trends and patterns in natural resource management because financial and time constraints preclude a complete census. A rigorous probability-based survey design specifies where to sample so that inferences from the sample apply to the entire population. Probability survey designs should be used in natural resource and environmental management situations because they provide the mathematical foundation for statistical inference. Development of long-term monitoring designs demand survey designs that achieve statistical rigor and are efficient but remain flexible to inevitable logistical or practical constraints during field data collection. Here we describe an approach to probability-based survey design, called the Reversed Randomized Quadrant-Recursive Raster, based on the concept of spatially balanced sampling and implemented in a geographic information system. This provides environmental managers a practical tool to generate flexible and efficient survey designs for natural resource applications. Factors commonly used to modify sampling intensity, such as categories, gradients, or accessibility, can be readily incorporated into the spatially balanced sample design.

ProbOnto: ontology and knowledge base of probability distributions.

PubMed

Swat, Maciej J; Grenon, Pierre; Wimalaratne, Sarala

2016-09-01

Probability distributions play a central role in mathematical and statistical modelling. The encoding, annotation and exchange of such models could be greatly simplified by a resource providing a common reference for the definition of probability distributions. Although some resources exist, no suitably detailed and complex ontology exists nor any database allowing programmatic access. ProbOnto, is an ontology-based knowledge base of probability distributions, featuring more than 80 uni- and multivariate distributions with their defining functions, characteristics, relationships and re-parameterization formulas. It can be used for model annotation and facilitates the encoding of distribution-based models, related functions and quantities. http://probonto.org mjswat@ebi.ac.uk Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press.

In search of a statistical probability model for petroleum-resource assessment : a critique of the probabilistic significance of certain concepts and methods used in petroleum-resource assessment : to that end, a probabilistic model is sketched

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grossling, Bernardo F.

1975-01-01

Exploratory drilling is still in incipient or youthful stages in those areas of the world where the bulk of the potential petroleum resources is yet to be discovered. Methods of assessing resources from projections based on historical production and reserve data are limited to mature areas. For most of the world's petroleum-prospective areas, a more speculative situation calls for a critical review of resource-assessment methodology. The language of mathematical statistics is required to define more rigorously the appraisal of petroleum resources. Basically, two approaches have been used to appraise the amounts of undiscovered mineral resources in a geologic province: (1) projection models, which use statistical data on the past outcome of exploration and development in the province; and (2) estimation models of the overall resources of the province, which use certain known parameters of the province together with the outcome of exploration and development in analogous provinces. These two approaches often lead to widely different estimates. Some of the controversy that arises results from a confusion of the probabilistic significance of the quantities yielded by each of the two approaches. Also, inherent limitations of analytic projection models-such as those using the logistic and Gomperts functions --have often been ignored. The resource-assessment problem should be recast in terms that provide for consideration of the probability of existence of the resource and of the probability of discovery of a deposit. Then the two above-mentioned models occupy the two ends of the probability range. The new approach accounts for (1) what can be expected with reasonably high certainty by mere projections of what has been accomplished in the past; (2) the inherent biases of decision-makers and resource estimators; (3) upper bounds that can be set up as goals for exploration; and (4) the uncertainties in geologic conditions in a search for minerals. Actual outcomes can then be viewed as phenomena subject to statistical uncertainty and responsive to changes in economic and technologic factors.

Coordination and establishment of centralized facilities and services for the University of Alaska ERTS survey of the Alaskan environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Belon, A. E. (Principal Investigator); Miller, J. M.

1973-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. Scene 1072-21173 of the Anaktuvuk Pass region of the Brooks Range, Alaska, was studied from the point of view of a resource survey for purposes of land use planning as part of the effort to develop ERTS data processing and interpretation techniques. Other data sources and surface observations were utilized to produce a resource survey of a remote and undeveloped region of Alaska. Three vegetative types are apparent: moist tundra, low brush, and high brush. Watersheds are easily defined on the multispectral imagery. Features related indirectly to economic minerals are discernible from ERTS-1 imagery supported by ground truth data. These include mountains, outwash plains and alluvial deposits, drainage patterns, lineaments and probable bedding planes. This region falls within present land class categories which are not inconsistent with the imperatives of the resources. These land class categories include native village withdrawals, regional deficiency area, national interest study area for possible inclusion in a national system, public interest areas, utility corridor, and state land selection.

Unusual positional effects on flower sex in an andromonoecious tree: Resource competition, architectural constraints, or inhibition by the apical flower?

PubMed

Granado-Yela, Carlos; Balaguer, Luis; Cayuela, Luis; Méndez, Marcos

2017-04-01

Two, nonmutually exclusive, mechanisms-competition for resources and architectural constraints-have been proposed to explain the proximal to distal decline in flower size, mass, and/or femaleness in indeterminate, elongate inflorescences. Whether these mechanisms also explain unusual positional effects such as distal to proximal declines of floral performance in determinate inflorescences, is understudied. We tested the relative influence of these mechanisms in the andromonoecious wild olive tree, where hermaphroditic flowers occur mainly on apical and the most proximal positions in determinate inflorescences. We experimentally increased the availability of resources for the inflorescences by removing half of the inflorescences per twig or reduced resource availability by removing leaves. We also removed the apical flower to test its inhibitory effect on subapical flowers. The apical flower had the highest probability of being hermaphroditic. Further down, however, the probability of finding a hermaphroditic flower decreased from the base to the tip of the inflorescences. An experimental increase of resources increased the probability of finding hermaphroditic flowers at each position, and vice versa. Removal of the apical flower increased the probability of producing hermaphroditic flowers in proximal positions but not in subapical positions. These results indicate an interaction between resource competition and architectural constraints in influencing the arrangement of the hermaphroditic and male flowers within the inflorescences of the wild olive tree. Subapical flowers did not seem to be hormonally suppressed by apical flowers. The study of these unusual positional effects is needed for a general understanding about the functional implications of inflorescence architecture. © 2017 Botanical Society of America.

Vulnerability of manned spacecraft to crew loss from orbital debris penetration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Williamsen, J. E.

1994-01-01

Orbital debris growth threatens the survival of spacecraft systems from impact-induced failures. Whereas the probability of debris impact and spacecraft penetration may currently be calculated, another parameter of great interest to safety engineers is the probability that debris penetration will cause actual spacecraft or crew loss. Quantifying the likelihood of crew loss following a penetration allows spacecraft designers to identify those design features and crew operational protocols that offer the highest improvement in crew safety for available resources. Within this study, a manned spacecraft crew survivability (MSCSurv) computer model is developed that quantifies the conditional probability of losing one or more crew members, P(sub loss/pen), following the remote likelihood of an orbital debris penetration into an eight module space station. Contributions to P(sub loss/pen) are quantified from three significant penetration-induced hazards: pressure wall rupture (explosive decompression), fragment-induced injury, and 'slow' depressurization. Sensitivity analyses are performed using alternate assumptions for hazard-generating functions, crew vulnerability thresholds, and selected spacecraft design and crew operations parameters. These results are then used to recommend modifications to the spacecraft design and expected crew operations that quantitatively increase crew safety from orbital debris impacts.

Probability density function characterization for aggregated large-scale wind power based on Weibull mixtures

DOE PAGES

Gomez-Lazaro, Emilio; Bueso, Maria C.; Kessler, Mathieu; ...

2016-02-02

Here, the Weibull probability distribution has been widely applied to characterize wind speeds for wind energy resources. Wind power generation modeling is different, however, due in particular to power curve limitations, wind turbine control methods, and transmission system operation requirements. These differences are even greater for aggregated wind power generation in power systems with high wind penetration. Consequently, models based on one-Weibull component can provide poor characterizations for aggregated wind power generation. With this aim, the present paper focuses on discussing Weibull mixtures to characterize the probability density function (PDF) for aggregated wind power generation. PDFs of wind power datamore » are firstly classified attending to hourly and seasonal patterns. The selection of the number of components in the mixture is analyzed through two well-known different criteria: the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and the Bayesian information criterion (BIC). Finally, the optimal number of Weibull components for maximum likelihood is explored for the defined patterns, including the estimated weight, scale, and shape parameters. Results show that multi-Weibull models are more suitable to characterize aggregated wind power data due to the impact of distributed generation, variety of wind speed values and wind power curtailment.« less

INDIAN PEAKS WILDERNESS, COLORADO.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pearson, Robert C.; Speltz, Charles N.

1984-01-01

The Indian Peaks Wilderness northwest of Denver is partly within the Colorado Mineral Belt, and the southeast part of it contains all the geologic characteristics associated with the several nearby mining districts. Two deposits have demonstrated mineral resources, one of copper and the other of uranium; both are surrounded by areas with probable potential. Two other areas have probable resource potential for copper, gold, and possibly molydenum. Detailed gravity and magnetic studies in the southeast part of the Indian Peaks Wilderness might detect in the subsurface igneous bodies that may be mineralized. Physical exploration such as drilling would be necessary to determine more precisely the copper resources at the Roaring Fork locality and uranium resources at Wheeler Basin.

GOAT ROCKS WILDERNESS AND ADJACENT ROADLESS AREAS, WASHINGTON.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Church, S.E.; Close, T.J.

1984-01-01

The Goat Rocks Wilderness and adjacent roadless areas are a rugged, highly forested, scenic area located on the crest of the Cascade Range in south-central Washington. Several mineral claims have been staked in the area. Mineral surveys were conducted. Geochemical, geophysical, and geologic investigations indicate that three areas have probable mineral-resource potential for base metals in porphyry-type deposits. Available data are not adequate to permit definition of the potential for oil and gas. There is little likelihood for the occurrence of other kinds of energy resources in the area. Evaluation of resource potential in the three areas identified as having probable mineral-resource potential could be improved by more detailed geochemical studies and geologic mapping.

Quantifying Uncertainty of Wind Power Production Through an Analog Ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shahriari, M.; Cervone, G.

2016-12-01

The Analog Ensemble (AnEn) method is used to generate probabilistic weather forecasts that quantify the uncertainty in power estimates at hypothetical wind farm locations. The data are from the NREL Eastern Wind Dataset that includes more than 1,300 modeled wind farms. The AnEn model uses a two-dimensional grid to estimate the probability distribution of wind speed (the predictand) given the values of predictor variables such as temperature, pressure, geopotential height, U-component and V-component of wind. The meteorological data is taken from the NCEP GFS which is available on a 0.25 degree grid resolution. The methodology first divides the data into two classes: training period and verification period. The AnEn selects a point in the verification period and searches for the best matching estimates (analogs) in the training period. The predictand value at those analogs are the ensemble prediction for the point in the verification period. The model provides a grid of wind speed values and the uncertainty (probability index) associated with each estimate. Each wind farm is associated with a probability index which quantifies the degree of difficulty to estimate wind power. Further, the uncertainty in estimation is related to other factors such as topography, land cover and wind resources. This is achieved by using a GIS system to compute the correlation between the probability index and geographical characteristics. This study has significant applications for investors in renewable energy sector especially wind farm developers. Lower level of uncertainty facilitates the process of submitting bids into day ahead and real time electricity markets. Thus, building wind farms in regions with lower levels of uncertainty will reduce the real-time operational risks and create a hedge against volatile real-time prices. Further, the links between wind estimate uncertainty and factors such as topography and wind resources, provide wind farm developers with valuable information regarding wind farm siting.

Quantitative Mineral Resource Assessment of Copper, Molybdenum, Gold, and Silver in Undiscovered Porphyry Copper Deposits in the Andes Mountains of South America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cunningham, Charles G.; Zappettini, Eduardo O.; Vivallo S., Waldo; Celada, Carlos Mario; Quispe, Jorge; Singer, Donald A.; Briskey, Joseph A.; Sutphin, David M.; Gajardo M., Mariano; Diaz, Alejandro; Portigliati, Carlos; Berger, Vladimir I.; Carrasco, Rodrigo; Schulz, Klaus J.

2008-01-01

Quantitative information on the general locations and amounts of undiscovered porphyry copper resources of the world is important to exploration managers, land-use and environmental planners, economists, and policy makers. This publication contains the results of probabilistic estimates of the amounts of copper (Cu), molybdenum (Mo), gold (Au), and silver (Ag) in undiscovered porphyry copper deposits in the Andes Mountains of South America. The methodology used to make these estimates is called the 'Three-Part Form'. It was developed to explicitly express estimates of undiscovered resources and associated uncertainty in a form that allows economic analysis and is useful to decisionmakers. The three-part form of assessment includes: (1) delineation of tracts of land where the geology is permissive for porphyry copper deposits to form; (2) selection of grade and tonnage models appropriate for estimating grades and tonnages of the undiscovered porphyry copper deposits in each tract; and (3) estimation of the number of undiscovered porphyry copper deposits in each tract consistent with the grade and tonnage model. A Monte Carlo simulation computer program (EMINERS) was used to combine the probability distributions of the estimated number of undiscovered deposits, the grades, and the tonnages of the selected model to obtain the probability distributions for undiscovered metals in each tract. These distributions of grades and tonnages then can be used to conduct economic evaluations of undiscovered resources in a format usable by decisionmakers. Economic evaluations are not part of this report. The results of this assessment are presented in two principal parts. The first part identifies 26 regional tracts of land where the geology is permissive for the occurrence of undiscovered porphyry copper deposits of Phanerozoic age to a depth of 1 km below the Earth's surface. These tracts are believed to contain most of South America's undiscovered resources of copper. The second part presents probabilistic estimates of the amounts of copper, molybdenum, gold, and silver in undiscovered porphyry copper deposits in each tract. The study also provides tables showing the location, tract number, and age (if available) of discovered deposits and prospects. For each of the 26 permissive tracts delineated in this study, summary information is provided on: (1) the rationale for delineating the tract; (2) the rationale for choosing the mineral deposit model used to assess the tract; (3) discovered deposits and prospects; (4) exploration history; and (5) the distribution of undiscovered deposits in the tract. The scale used to evaluate geologic information and draw tracts is 1:1,000,000.

Sustaining the rural workforce: nursing perspectives on worklife challenges.

PubMed

Hunsberger, Mabel; Baumann, Andrea; Blythe, Jennifer; Crea, Mary

2009-01-01

Concerns have been raised about the sustainability of health care workforces in rural settings. According to the literature, rural nurses' work satisfaction varies with the resources and supports available to respond to specific challenges. Given the probable effects of stressors on retention, it is essential to understand the unique requirements of nurses in rural practice environments. To investigate whether nurses receive the resources and supports necessary to meet the challenges of rural practice. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 21 managers and 44 staff nurses in 19 selected rural hospitals in Ontario, Canada. The interviews were taped and transcripts interpreted through a thematic analysis. Major worklife themes were identified and analyzed within a healthy work environment model based on the work of Kristensen. Three interrelated dimensions of the model were relevant to workforce sustainability: the balance between demands and the resources of the person, the level of social support, and the degree of influence. The availability of resources and supports affected whether the nurses perceived challenges as stimulating or overwhelming. Deficits interfered with practice and the well-being of the nurses and patients. The nurses felt frustrated and powerless when they lacked resources, support, and influence to manage negative situations. Strategies to achieve workforce sustainability include resources to reduce stress in the workplace, education to meet the needs of new and experienced nurses, and offering of employment preferences to the workforce. Addressing resources, support, and influence of rural nurses is essential to alleviate workplace challenges and sustain the rural nursing workforce.

Resource selection and its implications for wide-ranging mammals of the brazilian cerrado.

PubMed

Vynne, Carly; Keim, Jonah L; Machado, Ricardo B; Marinho-Filho, Jader; Silveira, Leandro; Groom, Martha J; Wasser, Samuel K

2011-01-01

Conserving animals beyond protected areas is critical because even the largest reserves may be too small to maintain viable populations for many wide-ranging species. Identification of landscape features that will promote persistence of a diverse array of species is a high priority, particularly, for protected areas that reside in regions of otherwise extensive habitat loss. This is the case for Emas National Park, a small but important protected area located in the Brazilian Cerrado, the world's most biologically diverse savanna. Emas Park is a large-mammal global conservation priority area but is too small to protect wide-ranging mammals for the long-term and conserving these populations will depend on the landscape surrounding the park. We employed novel, noninvasive methods to determine the relative importance of resources found within the park, as well as identify landscape features that promote persistence of wide-ranging mammals outside reserve borders. We used scat detection dogs to survey for five large mammals of conservation concern: giant armadillo (Priodontes maximus), giant anteater (Myrmecophaga tridactyla), maned wolf (Chrysocyon brachyurus), jaguar (Panthera onca), and puma (Puma concolor). We estimated resource selection probability functions for each species from 1,572 scat locations and 434 giant armadillo burrow locations. Results indicate that giant armadillos and jaguars are highly selective of natural habitats, which makes both species sensitive to landscape change from agricultural development. Due to the high amount of such development outside of the Emas Park boundary, the park provides rare resource conditions that are particularly important for these two species. We also reveal that both woodland and forest vegetation remnants enable use of the agricultural landscape as a whole for maned wolves, pumas, and giant anteaters. We identify those features and their landscape compositions that should be prioritized for conservation, arguing that a multi-faceted approach is required to protect these species.

Concepts for risk-based surveillance in the field of veterinary medicine and veterinary public health: Review of current approaches

PubMed Central

Stärk, Katharina DC; Regula, Gertraud; Hernandez, Jorge; Knopf, Lea; Fuchs, Klemens; Morris, Roger S; Davies, Peter

2006-01-01

Background Emerging animal and zoonotic diseases and increasing international trade have resulted in an increased demand for veterinary surveillance systems. However, human and financial resources available to support government veterinary services are becoming more and more limited in many countries world-wide. Intuitively, issues that present higher risks merit higher priority for surveillance resources as investments will yield higher benefit-cost ratios. The rapid rate of acceptance of this core concept of risk-based surveillance has outpaced the development of its theoretical and practical bases. Discussion The principal objectives of risk-based veterinary surveillance are to identify surveillance needs to protect the health of livestock and consumers, to set priorities, and to allocate resources effectively and efficiently. An important goal is to achieve a higher benefit-cost ratio with existing or reduced resources. We propose to define risk-based surveillance systems as those that apply risk assessment methods in different steps of traditional surveillance design for early detection and management of diseases or hazards. In risk-based designs, public health, economic and trade consequences of diseases play an important role in selection of diseases or hazards. Furthermore, certain strata of the population of interest have a higher probability to be sampled for detection of diseases or hazards. Evaluation of risk-based surveillance systems shall prove that the efficacy of risk-based systems is equal or higher than traditional systems; however, the efficiency (benefit-cost ratio) shall be higher in risk-based surveillance systems. Summary Risk-based surveillance considerations are useful to support both strategic and operational decision making. This article highlights applications of risk-based surveillance systems in the veterinary field including food safety. Examples are provided for risk-based hazard selection, risk-based selection of sampling strata as well as sample size calculation based on risk considerations. PMID:16507106

Resource Selection and Its Implications for Wide-Ranging Mammals of the Brazilian Cerrado

PubMed Central

Vynne, Carly; Keim, Jonah L.; Machado, Ricardo B.; Marinho-Filho, Jader; Silveira, Leandro; Groom, Martha J.; Wasser, Samuel K.

2011-01-01

Conserving animals beyond protected areas is critical because even the largest reserves may be too small to maintain viable populations for many wide-ranging species. Identification of landscape features that will promote persistence of a diverse array of species is a high priority, particularly, for protected areas that reside in regions of otherwise extensive habitat loss. This is the case for Emas National Park, a small but important protected area located in the Brazilian Cerrado, the world's most biologically diverse savanna. Emas Park is a large-mammal global conservation priority area but is too small to protect wide-ranging mammals for the long-term and conserving these populations will depend on the landscape surrounding the park. We employed novel, noninvasive methods to determine the relative importance of resources found within the park, as well as identify landscape features that promote persistence of wide-ranging mammals outside reserve borders. We used scat detection dogs to survey for five large mammals of conservation concern: giant armadillo (Priodontes maximus), giant anteater (Myrmecophaga tridactyla), maned wolf (Chrysocyon brachyurus), jaguar (Panthera onca), and puma (Puma concolor). We estimated resource selection probability functions for each species from 1,572 scat locations and 434 giant armadillo burrow locations. Results indicate that giant armadillos and jaguars are highly selective of natural habitats, which makes both species sensitive to landscape change from agricultural development. Due to the high amount of such development outside of the Emas Park boundary, the park provides rare resource conditions that are particularly important for these two species. We also reveal that both woodland and forest vegetation remnants enable use of the agricultural landscape as a whole for maned wolves, pumas, and giant anteaters. We identify those features and their landscape compositions that should be prioritized for conservation, arguing that a multi-faceted approach is required to protect these species. PMID:22205984

Effects of Shoreline Dynamics on Saltmarsh Vegetation

PubMed Central

Sharma, Shailesh; Goff, Joshua; Moody, Ryan M.; McDonald, Ashley; Byron, Dorothy; Heck, Kenneth L.; Powers, Sean P.; Ferraro, Carl; Cebrian, Just

2016-01-01

We evaluated the impact of shoreline dynamics on fringing vegetation density at mid- and low-marsh elevations at a high-energy site in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Particularly, we selected eight unprotected shoreline stretches (75 m each) at a historically eroding site and measured their inter-annual lateral movement rate using the DSAS method for three consecutive years. We observed high inter-annual variability of shoreline movement within the selected stretches. Specifically, shorelines retrograded (eroded) in year 1 and year 3, whereas, in year 2, shorelines advanced seaward. Despite shoreline advancement in year 2, an overall net erosion was recorded during the survey period. Additionally, vegetation density generally declined at both elevations during the survey period; however, probably due to their immediate proximity with lateral erosion agents (e.g., waves, currents), marsh grasses at low-elevation exhibited abrupt reduction in density, more so than grasses at mid elevation. Finally, contrary to our hypothesis, despite shoreline advancement, vegetation density did not increase correspondingly in year 2 probably due to a lag in response from biota. More studies in other coastal systems may advance our knowledge of marsh edge systems; however, we consider our results could be beneficial to resource managers in preparing protection plans for coastal wetlands against chronic stressors such as lateral erosion. PMID:27442515

The Self-Adapting Focused Review System. Probability sampling of medical records to monitor utilization and quality of care.

PubMed

Ash, A; Schwartz, M; Payne, S M; Restuccia, J D

1990-11-01

Medical record review is increasing in importance as the need to identify and monitor utilization and quality of care problems grow. To conserve resources, reviews are usually performed on a subset of cases. If judgment is used to identify subgroups for review, this raises the following questions: How should subgroups be determined, particularly since the locus of problems can change over time? What standard of comparison should be used in interpreting rates of problems found in subgroups? How can population problem rates be estimated from observed subgroup rates? How can the bias be avoided that arises because reviewers know that selected cases are suspected of having problems? How can changes in problem rates over time be interpreted when evaluating intervention programs? Simple random sampling, an alternative to subgroup review, overcomes the problems implied by these questions but is inefficient. The Self-Adapting Focused Review System (SAFRS), introduced and described here, provides an adaptive approach to record selection that is based upon model-weighted probability sampling. It retains the desirable inferential properties of random sampling while allowing reviews to be concentrated on cases currently thought most likely to be problematic. Model development and evaluation are illustrated using hospital data to predict inappropriate admissions.

Effects of Shoreline Dynamics on Saltmarsh Vegetation.

PubMed

Sharma, Shailesh; Goff, Joshua; Moody, Ryan M; McDonald, Ashley; Byron, Dorothy; Heck, Kenneth L; Powers, Sean P; Ferraro, Carl; Cebrian, Just

2016-01-01

We evaluated the impact of shoreline dynamics on fringing vegetation density at mid- and low-marsh elevations at a high-energy site in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Particularly, we selected eight unprotected shoreline stretches (75 m each) at a historically eroding site and measured their inter-annual lateral movement rate using the DSAS method for three consecutive years. We observed high inter-annual variability of shoreline movement within the selected stretches. Specifically, shorelines retrograded (eroded) in year 1 and year 3, whereas, in year 2, shorelines advanced seaward. Despite shoreline advancement in year 2, an overall net erosion was recorded during the survey period. Additionally, vegetation density generally declined at both elevations during the survey period; however, probably due to their immediate proximity with lateral erosion agents (e.g., waves, currents), marsh grasses at low-elevation exhibited abrupt reduction in density, more so than grasses at mid elevation. Finally, contrary to our hypothesis, despite shoreline advancement, vegetation density did not increase correspondingly in year 2 probably due to a lag in response from biota. More studies in other coastal systems may advance our knowledge of marsh edge systems; however, we consider our results could be beneficial to resource managers in preparing protection plans for coastal wetlands against chronic stressors such as lateral erosion.

Definition and Measurement of Selection Bias: From Constant Ratio to Constant Difference

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cahan, Sorel; Gamliel, Eyal

2006-01-01

Despite its intuitive appeal and popularity, Thorndike's constant ratio (CR) model for unbiased selection is inherently inconsistent in "n"-free selection. Satisfaction of the condition for unbiased selection, when formulated in terms of success/acceptance probabilities, usually precludes satisfaction by the converse probabilities of…

Effects of dams on downstream molluscan predator-prey interactions in the Colorado River estuary.

PubMed

Smith, Jansen A; Handley, John C; Dietl, Gregory P

2018-05-30

River systems worldwide have been modified for human use and the downstream ecological consequences are often poorly understood. In the Colorado River estuary, where upstream water diversions have limited freshwater input during the last century, mollusc remains from the last several hundred years suggest widespread ecological change. The once abundant clam Mulinia modesta has undergone population declines of approximately 94% and populations of predators relying on this species as a food source have probably declined, switched to alternative prey species or both. We distinguish between the first two hypotheses using a null model of predation preference to test whether M. modesta was preyed upon selectively by the naticid snail, Neverita reclusiana , along the estuary's past salinity gradient. To evaluate the third hypothesis, we estimate available prey biomass today and in the past, assuming prey were a limiting resource. Data on the frequency of drill holes-identifiable traces of naticid predation on prey shells-showed several species, including M. modesta , were preferred prey. Neverita reclusiana was probably able to switch prey. Available prey biomass also declined, suggesting the N. reclusiana population probably also declined. These results indicate a substantial change to the structure of the benthic food web. Given the global scale of water management, such changes have probably also occurred in many of the world's estuaries. © 2018 The Author(s).

Applications For Real Time NOMADS At NCEP To Disseminate NOAA's Operational Model Data Base

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alpert, J. C.; Wang, J.; Rutledge, G.

2007-05-01

A wide range of environmental information, in digital form, with metadata descriptions and supporting infrastructure is contained in the NOAA Operational Modeling Archive Distribution System (NOMADS) and its Real Time (RT) project prototype at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). NOMADS is now delivering on its goal of a seamless framework, from archival to real time data dissemination for NOAA's operational model data holdings. A process is under way to make NOMADS part of NCEP's operational production of products. A goal is to foster collaborations among the research and education communities, value added retailers, and public access for science and development. In the National Research Council's "Completing the Forecast", Recommendation 3.4 states: "NOMADS should be maintained and extended to include (a) long-term archives of the global and regional ensemble forecasting systems at their native resolution, and (b) re-forecast datasets to facilitate post-processing." As one of many participants of NOMADS, NCEP serves the operational model data base using data application protocol (Open-DAP) and other services for participants to serve their data sets and users to obtain them. Using the NCEP global ensemble data as an example, we show an Open-DAP (also known as DODS) client application that provides a request-and-fulfill mechanism for access to the complex ensemble matrix of holdings. As an example of the DAP service, we show a client application which accesses the Global or Regional Ensemble data set to produce user selected weather element event probabilities. The event probabilities are easily extended over model forecast time to show probability histograms defining the future trend of user selected events. This approach insures an efficient use of computer resources because users transmit only the data necessary for their tasks. Data sets are served by OPeN-DAP allowing commercial clients such as MATLAB or IDL as well as freeware clients such as GrADS to access the NCEP real time database. We will demonstrate how users can use NOMADS services to repackage area subsets and select levels and variables that are sent to a users selected ftp site. NOMADS can also display plots on demand for area subsets, selected levels, time series and selected variables.

An Evaluation of a Progressive High-Probability Instructional Sequence Combined with Low-Probability Demand Fading in the Treatment of Food Selectivity

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Penrod, Becky; Gardella, Laura; Fernand, Jonathan

2012-01-01

Few studies have examined the effects of the high-probability instructional sequence in the treatment of food selectivity, and results of these studies have been mixed (e.g., Dawson et al., 2003; Patel et al., 2007). The present study extended previous research on the high-probability instructional sequence by combining this procedure with…

Butterfly survival on an isolated island by improved grip

PubMed Central

Duplouy, Anne; Hanski, Ilkka

2013-01-01

On small isolated islands, natural selection is expected to reduce the dispersal capacity of organisms, as short distances do not require a high rate of dispersal, which might lead to accidental emigration from the population. In addition, individuals foregoing the high cost of maintaining flight capacity may instead allocate resources to other functions. However, in butterflies and many other insects, flight is necessary not only for dispersal but also for most other activities. A weakly flying individual would probably do worse and have an elevated rather than reduced probability of accidental emigration. Here, we report results consistent with the hypothesis that a butterfly population on an isolated island, instead of having lost its flight capacity, has evolved better grip to resist the force of wind and to avoid being blown off the island. Our study suggests that local adaptation has occurred in this population in spite of its very small size (Ne ∼ 100), complete isolation, low genetic variation and high genetic load. PMID:23445946

Analyzing seasonal patterns of wildfire exposure factors in Sardinia, Italy.

PubMed

Salis, Michele; Ager, Alan A; Alcasena, Fermin J; Arca, Bachisio; Finney, Mark A; Pellizzaro, Grazia; Spano, Donatella

2015-01-01

In this paper, we applied landscape scale wildfire simulation modeling to explore the spatiotemporal patterns of wildfire likelihood and intensity in the island of Sardinia (Italy). We also performed wildfire exposure analysis for selected highly valued resources on the island to identify areas characterized by high risk. We observed substantial variation in burn probability, fire size, and flame length among time periods within the fire season, which starts in early June and ends in late September. Peak burn probability and flame length were observed in late July. We found that patterns of wildfire likelihood and intensity were mainly related to spatiotemporal variation in ignition locations, fuel moisture, and wind vectors. Our modeling approach allowed consideration of historical patterns of winds, ignition locations, and live and dead fuel moisture on fire exposure factors. The methodology proposed can be useful for analyzing potential wildfire risk and effects at landscape scale, evaluating historical changes and future trends in wildfire exposure, as well as for addressing and informing fuel management and risk mitigation issues.

Predictive Modeling and Mapping of Fish Distributions in Small Streams of the Canadian Rocky Mountain Foothills

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCleary, R. J.; Hassan, M. A.

2006-12-01

An automated procedure was developed to model spatial fish distributions within small streams in the Foothills of Alberta. Native fish populations and their habitats are susceptible to impacts arising from both industrial forestry and rapid development of petroleum resources in the region. Knowledge of fish distributions and the effects of industrial activities on their habitats is required to help conserve native fish populations. Resource selection function (RSF) models were used to explain presence/absence of fish in small streams. Target species were bull trout, rainbow trout and non-native brook trout. Using GIS, the drainage network was divided into reaches with uniform slope and drainage area and then polygons for each reach were created. Predictor variables described stream size, stream energy, climate and land-use. We identified a set of candidate models and selected the best model using a standard Akaike Information Criteria approach. The best models were validated with two external data sets. Drainage area and basin slope parameters were included in all best models. This finding emphasizes the importance of controlling for the energy dimension at the basin scale in investigations into the effects of land-use on aquatic resources in this transitional landscape between the mountains and plains. The best model for bull trout indicated a relation between the presence of artificial migration barriers in downstream areas and the extirpation of the species from headwater reaches. We produced reach-scale maps by species and summarized this information within all small catchments across the 12,000 km2 study area. These maps had included three categories based on predicted probability of capture for individual reaches. The high probability category had a 78 percent accuracy for correctly predicting both fish present and fish not-present reaches. Basin scale maps highlight specific watersheds likely to support both native bull trout and invasive brook trout, while reach-scale maps indicate specific reaches where interactions between these two species are likely to occur. With regional calibration, this automated modeling and mapping procedure could apply in headwater catchments throughout the Rocky Mountain Foothills and other areas where sporadic waterfalls or other natural migration barriers are not an important feature limiting fish distribution.

Joint-layer encoder optimization for HEVC scalable extensions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsai, Chia-Ming; He, Yuwen; Dong, Jie; Ye, Yan; Xiu, Xiaoyu; He, Yong

2014-09-01

Scalable video coding provides an efficient solution to support video playback on heterogeneous devices with various channel conditions in heterogeneous networks. SHVC is the latest scalable video coding standard based on the HEVC standard. To improve enhancement layer coding efficiency, inter-layer prediction including texture and motion information generated from the base layer is used for enhancement layer coding. However, the overall performance of the SHVC reference encoder is not fully optimized because rate-distortion optimization (RDO) processes in the base and enhancement layers are independently considered. It is difficult to directly extend the existing joint-layer optimization methods to SHVC due to the complicated coding tree block splitting decisions and in-loop filtering process (e.g., deblocking and sample adaptive offset (SAO) filtering) in HEVC. To solve those problems, a joint-layer optimization method is proposed by adjusting the quantization parameter (QP) to optimally allocate the bit resource between layers. Furthermore, to make more proper resource allocation, the proposed method also considers the viewing probability of base and enhancement layers according to packet loss rate. Based on the viewing probability, a novel joint-layer RD cost function is proposed for joint-layer RDO encoding. The QP values of those coding tree units (CTUs) belonging to lower layers referenced by higher layers are decreased accordingly, and the QP values of those remaining CTUs are increased to keep total bits unchanged. Finally the QP values with minimal joint-layer RD cost are selected to match the viewing probability. The proposed method was applied to the third temporal level (TL-3) pictures in the Random Access configuration. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed joint-layer optimization method can improve coding performance by 1.3% for these TL-3 pictures compared to the SHVC reference encoder without joint-layer optimization.

User’s guide for MapMark4—An R package for the probability calculations in three-part mineral resource assessments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ellefsen, Karl J.

2017-06-27

MapMark4 is a software package that implements the probability calculations in three-part mineral resource assessments. Functions within the software package are written in the R statistical programming language. These functions, their documentation, and a copy of this user’s guide are bundled together in R’s unit of shareable code, which is called a “package.” This user’s guide includes step-by-step instructions showing how the functions are used to carry out the probability calculations. The calculations are demonstrated using test data, which are included in the package.

Dynamic Resource Adjustment to Provide Seamless Streaming Services on Multimedia Mobile Cellular Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Chow-Sing; Yen, Fang-Zhi

With the rapid advances in wireless network communication, multimedia presentation has become more applicable. However, due to the limited wireless network resource and the mobility of Mobile Host (MH), QoS for wireless streaming is much more difficult to maintain. How to decrease Call Dropping Probability (CDP) in multimedia traffic while still keeping acceptable Call Block Probability (CBP) without sacrificing QoS has become an significant issue in providing wireless streaming services. In this paper, we propose a novel Dynamic Resources Adjustment (DRA) algorithm, which can dynamically borrow idle reserved resources in the serving cell or the target cell for handoffing MHs to compensate the shortage of bandwidth in media streaming. The experimental simulation results show that compared with traditional No Reservation (NR), and Resource Reservation in the six neighboring cells (RR-nb), and Resource Reservation in the target cell (RR-t), our proposed DRA algorithm can fully utilize unused reserved resources to effectively decrease the CDP while still keeping acceptable CBP with high bandwidth utilization.

Sandstone copper assessment of the Chu-Sarysu Basin, Central Kazakhstan: Chapter E in Global mineral resource assessment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Box, Stephen E.; Syusyura, Boris; Hayes, Timothy S.; Taylor, Cliff D.; Zientek, Michael L.; Hitzman, Murray W.; Seltmann, Reimar; Chechetkin, Vladimir; Dolgopolova, Alla; Cossette, Pamela M.; Wallis, John C.

2012-01-01

The team estimates that 26 undiscovered deposits occur within the Chu-Sarysu Basin, and that these deposits contain an arithmetic mean of at least 21.5 million metric tons (Mt) of copper and 21,900 metric tons (t) of silver. The undiscovered deposits are in addition to the 7 known deposits that contain identified resources of 27.6 Mt of copper. Sixty percent of the estimated mean undiscovered copper resources are associated with the two permissive tracts that contain the identified resources; the remaining estimated resources are associated with the two tracts that have no known deposits. For the three tracts that contain 95 percent of the estimated undiscovered copper resources, the probability that each tract contains its estimated mean or more is about 40 percent. For the tract with 5 percent of the estimated undiscovered cop-per resources, the probability that it contains that amount or more is 25 percent.

BEARTOOTH PRIMITIVE AREA AND VICINITY, MONTANA AND WYOMING.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Simons, Frank S.; Van Noy, Ronald M.

1984-01-01

The Beartooth area comprises about 600 sq mi in the central part of the Beartooth Mountains in South-central Montana and northwestern Wyoming just northeast of Yellowstone National Park. A mineral-resource survey concluded that one area of probable and one of substantiated mineral-resource potential are present in the Beartooth area. Three small mining districts (Red Lodge, Stillwater, and Independence) and one possibly major district (Cooke City) adjoin the Beartooth area but lie almost entirely outside it; the northern part of the Cooke City mining district, around Goose Lake, is within the area. This area has substantiated resource potential for copper, silver, gold, and platinum-group elements. The Red Lodge mining district extends into the eastern part of the area and has a probable chrome resource potential. There is little promise for the discovery of energy resources in the area.

HELLS HOLE ROADLESS AREA, ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ratte, James C.; Briggs, John P.

1984-01-01

The Hells Hole Roadless Area encompasses about 50 sq mi along the Arizona-New Mexico State line. The area was studied and the southeastern part was determined to have a probable mineral-resource potential for the discovery of base- or precious-metal deposits related to igneous intrusions of middle to late Tertiary age. There also is a probable resource potential for porphyry copper mineralization of Laramide age beneath the Tertiary volcanic rocks that cover the area. There is little promise for the occurrence of energy resources in the area. Additional geochemical and petrological studies of the rocks of the Hells Hole volcanic center and modeling of geophysical anomalies are necessary to adequately appraise the mineral-resource potential of the area.

The importance of scale-dependent ravine characteristics on breeding-site selection by the Burrowing Parrot, Cyanoliseus patagonus

PubMed Central

Rios, Rodrigo S.; Vargas-Rodriguez, Renzo; Novoa-Jerez, Jose-Enrique; Squeo, Francisco A.

2017-01-01

In birds, the environmental variables and intrinsic characteristics of the nest have important fitness consequences through its influence on the selection of nesting sites. However, the extent to which these variables interact with variables that operate at the landscape scale, and whether there is a hierarchy among the different scales that influences nest-site selection, is unknown. This interaction could be crucial in burrowing birds, which depend heavily on the availability of suitable nesting locations. One representative of this group is the burrowing parrot, Cyanoliseus patagonus that breeds on specific ravines and forms large breeding colonies. At a particular site, breeding aggregations require the concentration of adequate environmental elements for cavity nesting, which are provided by within ravine characteristics. Therefore, intrinsic ravine characteristics should be more important in determining nest site selection compared to landscape level characteristics. Here, we assess this hypothesis by comparing the importance of ravine characteristics operating at different scales on nest-site selection and their interrelation with reproductive success. We quantified 12 characteristics of 105 ravines in their reproductive habitat. For each ravine we quantified morphological variables, distance to resources and disturbance as well as nest number and egg production in order to compare selected and non-selected ravines and determine the interrelationship among variables in explaining ravine differences. In addition, the number of nests and egg production for each reproductive ravine was related to ravine characteristics to assess their relation to reproductive success. We found significant differences between non-reproductive and reproductive ravines in both intrinsic and extrinsic characteristics. The multidimensional environmental gradient of variation between ravines, however, shows that differences are mainly related to intrinsic morphological characteristics followed by extrinsic variables associated to human disturbance. Likewise, within reproductive ravines, intrinsic characteristics are more strongly related to the number of nests. The probability of producing eggs, however, was related only to distance to roads and human settlements. Patterns suggest that C. patagonus mainly selects nesting sites based on intrinsic morphological characteristics of ravines. Scale differences in the importance of ravine characteristics could be a consequence of the particular orography of the breeding habitat. The arrangement of resources is associated to the location of the gullies rather than to individual ravines, determining the spatial availability and disposition of resources and disturbances. Thus, nest selection is influenced by intrinsic characteristics that maximize the fitness of individuals. Scaling in nest-selection is discussed under an optimality approach that partitions patch selection based on foraging theory. PMID:28462019

Monitoring technologies for ocean disposal of radioactive waste

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Triplett, M. B.; Solomon, K. A.; Bishop, C. B.; Tyce, R. C.

1982-01-01

The feasibility of using carefully selected subseabed locations to permanently isolate high level radioactive wastes at ocean depths greater than 4000 meters is discussed. Disposal at several candidate subseabed areas is being studied because of the long term geologic stability of the sediments, remoteness from human activity, and lack of useful natural resources. While the deep sea environment is remote, it also poses some significant challenges for the technology required to survey and monitor these sites, to identify and pinpoint container leakage should it occur, and to provide the environmental information and data base essential to determining the probable impacts of any such occurrence. Objectives and technical approaches to aid in the selective development of advanced technologies for the future monitoring of nuclear low level and high level waste disposal in the deep seabed are presented. Detailed recommendations for measurement and sampling technology development needed for deep seabed nuclear waste monitoring are also presented.

Engineering multiphoton states for linear optics computation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aniello, P.; Lupo, C.; Napolitano, M.; Paris, M. G. A.

2007-03-01

Transformations achievable by linear optical components allow to generate the whole unitary group only when restricted to the one-photon subspace of a multimode Fock space. In this paper, we address the more general problem of encoding quantum information by multiphoton states, and elaborating it via ancillary extensions, linear optical passive devices and photodetection. Our scheme stems in a natural way from the mathematical structures underlying the physics of linear optical passive devices. In particular, we analyze an economical procedure for mapping a fiducial 2-photon 2-mode state into an arbitrary 2-photon 2-mode state using ancillary resources and linear optical passive N-ports assisted by post-selection. We found that adding a single ancilla mode is enough to generate any desired target state. The effect of imperfect photodetection in post-selection is considered and a simple trade-off between success probability and fidelity is derived.

Oribatid communities and heavy metal bioaccumulation in selected species associated with lichens in a heavily contaminated habitat.

PubMed

Skubała, Piotr; Rola, Kaja; Osyczka, Piotr

2016-05-01

The study examines oribatid communities and heavy metal bioaccumulation in selected species associated with different microhabitats of a post-smelting dump, i.e. three lichen species of Cladonia with various growth forms and the slag substrate. The abundance of oribatids collected from the substrate was significantly lower than observed in lichen thalli. The morphology and chemical properties of lichens, and to some extent varying concentrations of heavy metals in thalli, are probably responsible for significant differences in oribatid communities inhabiting different Cladonia species. Some oribatids demonstrate the ability to accumulate zinc and cadmium with unusual efficiency, whereas lead is the most effectively regulated element by all species. A positive correlation was found between Zn content in all studied oribatids and their microhabitats. Oribatids exploring different food resources, i.e. fungivorous and non-fungivorous grazers, show considerable differences in bioconcentrations of certain elements.

Environmental probabilistic quantitative assessment methodologies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Crovelli, R.A.

1995-01-01

In this paper, four petroleum resource assessment methodologies are presented as possible pollution assessment methodologies, even though petroleum as a resource is desirable, whereas pollution is undesirable. A methodology is defined in this paper to consist of a probability model and a probabilistic method, where the method is used to solve the model. The following four basic types of probability models are considered: 1) direct assessment, 2) accumulation size, 3) volumetric yield, and 4) reservoir engineering. Three of the four petroleum resource assessment methodologies were written as microcomputer systems, viz. TRIAGG for direct assessment, APRAS for accumulation size, and FASPU for reservoir engineering. A fourth microcomputer system termed PROBDIST supports the three assessment systems. The three assessment systems have different probability models but the same type of probabilistic method. The type of advantages of the analytic method are in computational speed and flexibility, making it ideal for a microcomputer. -from Author

Selection of a Representative Subset of Global Climate Models that Captures the Profile of Regional Changes for Integrated Climate Impacts Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ruane, Alex C.; Mcdermid, Sonali P.

2017-01-01

We present the Representative Temperature and Precipitation (T&P) GCM Subsetting Approach developed within the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) to select a practical subset of global climate models (GCMs) for regional integrated assessment of climate impacts when resource limitations do not permit the full ensemble of GCMs to be evaluated given the need to also focus on impacts sector and economics models. Subsetting inherently leads to a loss of information but can free up resources to explore important uncertainties in the integrated assessment that would otherwise be prohibitive. The Representative T&P GCM Subsetting Approach identifies five individual GCMs that capture a profile of the full ensemble of temperature and precipitation change within the growing season while maintaining information about the probability that basic classes of climate changes (relatively cool/wet, cool/dry, middle, hot/wet, and hot/dry) are projected in the full GCM ensemble. We demonstrate the selection methodology for maize impacts in Ames, Iowa, and discuss limitations and situations when additional information may be required to select representative GCMs. We then classify 29 GCMs over all land areas to identify regions and seasons with characteristic diagonal skewness related to surface moisture as well as extreme skewness connected to snow-albedo feedbacks and GCM uncertainty. Finally, we employ this basic approach to recognize that GCM projections demonstrate coherence across space, time, and greenhouse gas concentration pathway. The Representative T&P GCM Subsetting Approach provides a quantitative basis for the determination of useful GCM subsets, provides a practical and coherent approach where previous assessments selected solely on availability of scenarios, and may be extended for application to a range of scales and sectoral impacts.

Fixation probability in a two-locus intersexual selection model.

PubMed

Durand, Guillermo; Lessard, Sabin

2016-06-01

We study a two-locus model of intersexual selection in a finite haploid population reproducing according to a discrete-time Moran model with a trait locus expressed in males and a preference locus expressed in females. We show that the probability of ultimate fixation of a single mutant allele for a male ornament introduced at random at the trait locus given any initial frequency state at the preference locus is increased by weak intersexual selection and recombination, weak or strong. Moreover, this probability exceeds the initial frequency of the mutant allele even in the case of a costly male ornament if intersexual selection is not too weak. On the other hand, the probability of ultimate fixation of a single mutant allele for a female preference towards a male ornament introduced at random at the preference locus is increased by weak intersexual selection and weak recombination if the female preference is not costly, and is strong enough in the case of a costly male ornament. The analysis relies on an extension of the ancestral recombination-selection graph for samples of haplotypes to take into account events of intersexual selection, while the symbolic calculation of the fixation probabilities is made possible in a reasonable time by an optimizing algorithm. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Missouri StreamStats—A water-resources web application

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ellis, Jarrett T.

2018-01-31

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) maintains and operates more than 8,200 continuous streamgages nationwide. Types of data that may be collected, computed, and stored for streamgages include streamgage height (water-surface elevation), streamflow, and water quality. The streamflow data allow scientists and engineers to calculate streamflow statistics, such as the 1-percent annual exceedance probability flood (also known as the 100-year flood), the mean flow, and the 7-day, 10-year low flow, which are used by managers to make informed water resource management decisions, at each streamgage location. Researchers, regulators, and managers also commonly need physical characteristics (basin characteristics) that describe the unique properties of a basin. Common uses for streamflow statistics and basin characteristics include hydraulic design, water-supply management, water-use appropriations, and flood-plain mapping for establishing flood-insurance rates and land-use zones. The USGS periodically publishes reports that update the values of basin characteristics and streamflow statistics at selected gaged locations (locations with streamgages), but these studies usually only update a subset of streamgages, making data retrieval difficult. Additionally, streamflow statistics and basin characteristics are most often needed at ungaged locations (locations without streamgages) for which published streamflow statistics and basin characteristics do not exist. Missouri StreamStats is a web-based geographic information system that was created by the USGS in cooperation with the Missouri Department of Natural Resources to provide users with access to an assortment of tools that are useful for water-resources planning and management. StreamStats allows users to easily obtain the most recent published streamflow statistics and basin characteristics for streamgage locations and to automatically calculate selected basin characteristics and estimate streamflow statistics at ungaged locations.

GILA WILDERNESS, NEW MEXICO.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ratte, James C.; Stotelmeyer, Ronald B.

1984-01-01

Geologic, geochemical and geophysical indicators delineated during a study of the Gila Wilderness, New Mexico indicate that there are areas of probable and substantiated mineral-resource potential for gold, silver, tellurium, molybdenum, copper, lead, zinc, and fluorite. The areas which have resource potential lie along both sides of the western and southwestern boundaries of the wilderness, and adjacent to the access corridor to the Gila Cliff Dwellings National Monument in the eastern part of the wilderness. Areas marked by geothermal springs along Turkey Creek and Middle Fork of the Gila River have a probable potential for geothermal energy. No other energy-resource potential was identified within the study area.

Mate-Selection Systems and Criteria: Variation according to Family Structure.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Gary R.; Stone, Lorene Hemphill

1980-01-01

Autonomous mate selection based on romantic attraction is more likely to be institutionalized in societies with nuclear family systems. Neolocal residence customs increase the probability that mate selection is autonomous but decrease the probability that it is based on romantic attraction. (Author)

Probability model for analyzing fire management alternatives: theory and structure

Treesearch

Frederick W. Bratten

1982-01-01

A theoretical probability model has been developed for analyzing program alternatives in fire management. It includes submodels or modules for predicting probabilities of fire behavior, fire occurrence, fire suppression, effects of fire on land resources, and financial effects of fire. Generalized "fire management situations" are used to represent actual fire...

EAGLES NEST WILDERNESS, COLORADO.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tweto, Ogden; Williams, Frank E.

1984-01-01

On the basis of a geologic and mineral survey, a primitive area that constitutes the nucleus of the Eagles Nest Wilderness, Colorado was appraised to offer little promise for the occurrence of mineral or energy resources. Among the additional areas later incorporated in the wilderness, only a strip near a major fault west and northwest of Frisco and Dillon is classed as having probable mineral-resource potential. If mineral deposits exist, they probably are of the silver-lead-zinc or fluorspar types.

HIGH UINTAS PRIMITIVE AREA, UTAH.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Crittenden, Max D.; Sheridan, Michael J.

1984-01-01

Mineral surveys in the High Uintas Primitive Area, Utah and the additions subsequently proposed concluded that the area has little promise for mineral resources. Of the areas around the fringes, a strip along the north flank fault can be classed as having probable energy-resource potential for oil and gas. The oil and gas potential could be tested by additional seismic studies followed by drilling. Much of the necessary information probably could be obtained without drilling within the primitive area itself.

Bayesian dose selection design for a binary outcome using restricted response adaptive randomization.

PubMed

Meinzer, Caitlyn; Martin, Renee; Suarez, Jose I

2017-09-08

In phase II trials, the most efficacious dose is usually not known. Moreover, given limited resources, it is difficult to robustly identify a dose while also testing for a signal of efficacy that would support a phase III trial. Recent designs have sought to be more efficient by exploring multiple doses through the use of adaptive strategies. However, the added flexibility may potentially increase the risk of making incorrect assumptions and reduce the total amount of information available across the dose range as a function of imbalanced sample size. To balance these challenges, a novel placebo-controlled design is presented in which a restricted Bayesian response adaptive randomization (RAR) is used to allocate a majority of subjects to the optimal dose of active drug, defined as the dose with the lowest probability of poor outcome. However, the allocation between subjects who receive active drug or placebo is held constant to retain the maximum possible power for a hypothesis test of overall efficacy comparing the optimal dose to placebo. The design properties and optimization of the design are presented in the context of a phase II trial for subarachnoid hemorrhage. For a fixed total sample size, a trade-off exists between the ability to select the optimal dose and the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis. This relationship is modified by the allocation ratio between active and control subjects, the choice of RAR algorithm, and the number of subjects allocated to an initial fixed allocation period. While a responsive RAR algorithm improves the ability to select the correct dose, there is an increased risk of assigning more subjects to a worse arm as a function of ephemeral trends in the data. A subarachnoid treatment trial is used to illustrate how this design can be customized for specific objectives and available data. Bayesian adaptive designs are a flexible approach to addressing multiple questions surrounding the optimal dose for treatment efficacy within the context of limited resources. While the design is general enough to apply to many situations, future work is needed to address interim analyses and the incorporation of models for dose response.

WHETSTONE ROADLESS AREA, ARIZONA.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wrucke, Chester T.; McColly, Robert A.

1984-01-01

A mineral survey conducted has shown that areas in and adjacent to the Whetstone Roadless Area, Arizona have a substantiated resource potential for copper, lead, gold, silver, and quartz, and a probable mineral-resource potential for copper silver, lead, gold, molybdenum, tungsten, uranium, and gypsum. Copper and silver occur in a small vein deposit in the southwestern part of the roadless area. Copper, lead, silver, gold, and molybdenum are known in veins associated with a porphyry copper deposit in a reentrant near the southern border of the roadless area. Vein deposits of tungsten and uranium are possible in the northeast part of the roadless area near areas of known production of these commodities. Demonstrated resources of quartz for smelter flux extend into the roadless area from the Ricketts mine. Areas of probable potential for gypsum resources also occur within the roadless area. No potential for fossil fuel resources was identified in the study.

Selective mutism - resources

MedlinePlus

Resources - selective mutism ... The following organizations are good resources for information on selective mutism : American Speech-Language-Hearing Association -- www.asha.org/public/speech/disorders/selectivemutism/ Selective Mutism Association -- www. ...

Failure probability analysis of optical grid

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhong, Yaoquan; Guo, Wei; Sun, Weiqiang; Jin, Yaohui; Hu, Weisheng

2008-11-01

Optical grid, the integrated computing environment based on optical network, is expected to be an efficient infrastructure to support advanced data-intensive grid applications. In optical grid, the faults of both computational and network resources are inevitable due to the large scale and high complexity of the system. With the optical network based distributed computing systems extensive applied in the processing of data, the requirement of the application failure probability have been an important indicator of the quality of application and an important aspect the operators consider. This paper will present a task-based analysis method of the application failure probability in optical grid. Then the failure probability of the entire application can be quantified, and the performance of reducing application failure probability in different backup strategies can be compared, so that the different requirements of different clients can be satisfied according to the application failure probability respectively. In optical grid, when the application based DAG (directed acyclic graph) is executed in different backup strategies, the application failure probability and the application complete time is different. This paper will propose new multi-objective differentiated services algorithm (MDSA). New application scheduling algorithm can guarantee the requirement of the failure probability and improve the network resource utilization, realize a compromise between the network operator and the application submission. Then differentiated services can be achieved in optical grid.

Application analysis of Monte Carlo to estimate the capacity of geothermal resources in Lawu Mount

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Supriyadi, E-mail: supriyadi-uno@yahoo.co.nz; Srigutomo, Wahyu; Munandar, Arif

2014-03-24

Monte Carlo analysis has been applied in calculation of geothermal resource capacity based on volumetric method issued by Standar Nasional Indonesia (SNI). A deterministic formula is converted into a stochastic formula to take into account the nature of uncertainties in input parameters. The method yields a range of potential power probability stored beneath Lawu Mount geothermal area. For 10,000 iterations, the capacity of geothermal resources is in the range of 139.30-218.24 MWe with the most likely value is 177.77 MWe. The risk of resource capacity above 196.19 MWe is less than 10%. The power density of the prospect area coveringmore » 17 km{sup 2} is 9.41 MWe/km{sup 2} with probability 80%.« less

MOUNT HOOD WILDERNESS AND ADJACENT AREAS, OREGON.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Keith, T.E.C.; Causey, J.D.

1984-01-01

A mineral survey of the Mount Hood Wilderness, Oregon, was conducted. Geochemical data indicate two areas of substantiated mineral-resource potential containing weak epithermal mineralization: an area of the north side of Zigzag Mountain where vein-type lead-zinc-silver deposits occur and an area of the south side of Zigzag Mountain, where the upper part of a quartz diorite pluton has propylitic alteration associated with mineralization of copper, gold, silver, lead, and zinc in discontinuous veins. Geothermal-resource potential for low- to intermediate-temperature (less than 248 degree F) hot-water systems in the wilderness is probable in these areas. Part of the wilderness is classified as a Known Geothermal Resource Area (KGRA), which is considered to have probable geothermal-resource potential, and two parts of the wilderness have been included in geothermal lease areas.

Molecular genetics research in ADHD: ethical considerations concerning patients' benefit and resource allocation.

PubMed

Rothenberger, Lillian Geza

2012-12-01

Immense resource allocations have led to great data output in genetic research. Concerning ADHD resources spent on genetic research are less than those spent on clinical research. But there are successful efforts made to increase support for molecular genetics research in ADHD. Concerning genetics no evidence based conclusive results have significant impact on prevention, diagnosis or treatment yet. With regard to ethical aspects like the patients' benefit and limited resources the question arises if it is indicated to think about a new balance of resource allocation between molecular genetics and non-genetics research in ADHD. An ethical reflection was performed focusing on recent genetic studies and reviews based on a selective literature search. There are plausible reasons why genetic research results in ADHD are somehow disappointing for clinical practice so far. Researchers try to overcome these gaps systematically, without knowing what the potential future benefits for the patients might be. Non-genetic diagnostic/therapeutic research may lead to clinically relevant findings within a shorter period of time. On the other hand, non-genetic research in ADHD may be nurtured by genetic approaches. But, with the latter there exist significant risks of harm like stigmatization and concerns regarding data protection. Isolated speeding up resources of genetic research in ADHD seems questionable from an ethical point of view. There is a need to find a new balance of resource allocation between genetic and non-genetic research in ADHD, probably by integrating genetics more systematically into clinical research. A transdisciplinary debate is recommended. Copyright © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Bayesian variable selection for post-analytic interrogation of susceptibility loci.

PubMed

Chen, Siying; Nunez, Sara; Reilly, Muredach P; Foulkes, Andrea S

2017-06-01

Understanding the complex interplay among protein coding genes and regulatory elements requires rigorous interrogation with analytic tools designed for discerning the relative contributions of overlapping genomic regions. To this aim, we offer a novel application of Bayesian variable selection (BVS) for classifying genomic class level associations using existing large meta-analysis summary level resources. This approach is applied using the expectation maximization variable selection (EMVS) algorithm to typed and imputed SNPs across 502 protein coding genes (PCGs) and 220 long intergenic non-coding RNAs (lncRNAs) that overlap 45 known loci for coronary artery disease (CAD) using publicly available Global Lipids Gentics Consortium (GLGC) (Teslovich et al., 2010; Willer et al., 2013) meta-analysis summary statistics for low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C). The analysis reveals 33 PCGs and three lncRNAs across 11 loci with >50% posterior probabilities for inclusion in an additive model of association. The findings are consistent with previous reports, while providing some new insight into the architecture of LDL-cholesterol to be investigated further. As genomic taxonomies continue to evolve, additional classes such as enhancer elements and splicing regions, can easily be layered into the proposed analysis framework. Moreover, application of this approach to alternative publicly available meta-analysis resources, or more generally as a post-analytic strategy to further interrogate regions that are identified through single point analysis, is straightforward. All coding examples are implemented in R version 3.2.1 and provided as supplemental material. © 2016, The International Biometric Society.

Technology-enhanced Interactive Teaching of Marginal, Joint and Conditional Probabilities: The Special Case of Bivariate Normal Distribution

PubMed Central

Dinov, Ivo D.; Kamino, Scott; Bhakhrani, Bilal; Christou, Nicolas

2014-01-01

Summary Data analysis requires subtle probability reasoning to answer questions like What is the chance of event A occurring, given that event B was observed? This generic question arises in discussions of many intriguing scientific questions such as What is the probability that an adolescent weighs between 120 and 140 pounds given that they are of average height? and What is the probability of (monetary) inflation exceeding 4% and housing price index below 110? To address such problems, learning some applied, theoretical or cross-disciplinary probability concepts is necessary. Teaching such courses can be improved by utilizing modern information technology resources. Students’ understanding of multivariate distributions, conditional probabilities, correlation and causation can be significantly strengthened by employing interactive web-based science educational resources. Independent of the type of a probability course (e.g. majors, minors or service probability course, rigorous measure-theoretic, applied or statistics course) student motivation, learning experiences and knowledge retention may be enhanced by blending modern technological tools within the classical conceptual pedagogical models. We have designed, implemented and disseminated a portable open-source web-application for teaching multivariate distributions, marginal, joint and conditional probabilities using the special case of bivariate Normal distribution. A real adolescent height and weight dataset is used to demonstrate the classroom utilization of the new web-application to address problems of parameter estimation, univariate and multivariate inference. PMID:25419016

Technology-enhanced Interactive Teaching of Marginal, Joint and Conditional Probabilities: The Special Case of Bivariate Normal Distribution.

PubMed

Dinov, Ivo D; Kamino, Scott; Bhakhrani, Bilal; Christou, Nicolas

2013-01-01

Data analysis requires subtle probability reasoning to answer questions like What is the chance of event A occurring, given that event B was observed? This generic question arises in discussions of many intriguing scientific questions such as What is the probability that an adolescent weighs between 120 and 140 pounds given that they are of average height? and What is the probability of (monetary) inflation exceeding 4% and housing price index below 110? To address such problems, learning some applied, theoretical or cross-disciplinary probability concepts is necessary. Teaching such courses can be improved by utilizing modern information technology resources. Students' understanding of multivariate distributions, conditional probabilities, correlation and causation can be significantly strengthened by employing interactive web-based science educational resources. Independent of the type of a probability course (e.g. majors, minors or service probability course, rigorous measure-theoretic, applied or statistics course) student motivation, learning experiences and knowledge retention may be enhanced by blending modern technological tools within the classical conceptual pedagogical models. We have designed, implemented and disseminated a portable open-source web-application for teaching multivariate distributions, marginal, joint and conditional probabilities using the special case of bivariate Normal distribution. A real adolescent height and weight dataset is used to demonstrate the classroom utilization of the new web-application to address problems of parameter estimation, univariate and multivariate inference.

Application of a New Resource-Constrained Triage Method to Military-Age Victims

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-12-01

evidence based, does not consider resources, and has been shown to be scientifically and opera- tionally flawed.’ General P . K. Carlton, former USAF Surgeon...metric that can be used to predict sur- vival probability) P ^ (t) = the survival probability of victims with original SCORE s treated in time period t. n...function coefficients were derived on the design set, and validated on the test set. The logistic function has the form: P ^ - 1/(1 + e"), where P ^ is

Development of a decision support system for small reservoir irrigation systems in rainfed and drought prone areas.

PubMed

Balderama, Orlando F

2010-01-01

An integrated computer program called Cropping System and Water Management Model (CSWM) with a three-step feature (expert system-simulation-optimization) was developed to address a range of decision support for rainfed farming, i.e. crop selection, scheduling and optimisation. The system was used for agricultural planning with emphasis on sustainable agriculture in the rainfed areas through the use of small farm reservoirs for increased production and resource conservation and management. The application of the model was carried out using crop, soil, and climate and water resource data from the Philippines. Primarily, four sets of data representing the different rainfall classification of the country were collected, analysed, and used as input in the model. Simulations were also done on date of planting, probabilities of wet and dry period and with various capacities of the water reservoir used for supplemental irrigation. Through the analysis, useful information was obtained to determine suitable crops in the region, cropping schedule and pattern appropriate to the specific climate conditions. In addition, optimisation of the use of the land and water resources can be achieved in areas partly irrigated by small reservoirs.

Reaching the Hard-to-Reach: A Probability Sampling Method for Assessing Prevalence of Driving under the Influence after Drinking in Alcohol Outlets

PubMed Central

De Boni, Raquel; do Nascimento Silva, Pedro Luis; Bastos, Francisco Inácio; Pechansky, Flavio; de Vasconcellos, Mauricio Teixeira Leite

2012-01-01

Drinking alcoholic beverages in places such as bars and clubs may be associated with harmful consequences such as violence and impaired driving. However, methods for obtaining probabilistic samples of drivers who drink at these places remain a challenge – since there is no a priori information on this mobile population – and must be continually improved. This paper describes the procedures adopted in the selection of a population-based sample of drivers who drank at alcohol selling outlets in Porto Alegre, Brazil, which we used to estimate the prevalence of intention to drive under the influence of alcohol. The sampling strategy comprises a stratified three-stage cluster sampling: 1) census enumeration areas (CEA) were stratified by alcohol outlets (AO) density and sampled with probability proportional to the number of AOs in each CEA; 2) combinations of outlets and shifts (COS) were stratified by prevalence of alcohol-related traffic crashes and sampled with probability proportional to their squared duration in hours; and, 3) drivers who drank at the selected COS were stratified by their intention to drive and sampled using inverse sampling. Sample weights were calibrated using a post-stratification estimator. 3,118 individuals were approached and 683 drivers interviewed, leading to an estimate that 56.3% (SE = 3,5%) of the drivers intended to drive after drinking in less than one hour after the interview. Prevalence was also estimated by sex and broad age groups. The combined use of stratification and inverse sampling enabled a good trade-off between resource and time allocation, while preserving the ability to generalize the findings. The current strategy can be viewed as a step forward in the efforts to improve surveys and estimation for hard-to-reach, mobile populations. PMID:22514620

Public reporting and market area exit decisions by home health agencies.

PubMed

Jung, Kyoungrae; Feldman, Roger

2012-01-01

To examine whether home health agencies selectively discontinue services to areas with socio-economically disadvantaged people after the introduction of Home Health Compare (HHC), a public reporting program initiated by Medicare in 2003. We focused on agencies' initial responses to HHC and examined selective market-area exits by agencies between 2002 and 2004. We measured HHC effects by the percentage of quality indicators reported in public HHC data in 2003. Socio-economic status was measured by per capita income and percent college-educated at the market-area level. 2002 and 2004 Outcome and Assessment Information Set (OASIS); 2000 US Census file; 2004 Area Resource File; and 2002 Provider of Service File. WE FOUND A SMALL AND WEAK EFFECT OF PUBLIC REPORTING ON SELECTIVE EXITS: a 10-percent increase in reporting (reporting one more indicator) increased the probability of leaving an area with less-educated people by 0.3 percentage points, compared with leaving an area with high education. The small level of market-area exits under public reporting is unlikely to be practically meaningful, suggesting that HHC did not lead to a disruption in access to home health care through selective exits during the initial year of the program.

[Inverse probability weighting (IPW) for evaluating and "correcting" selection bias].

PubMed

Narduzzi, Silvia; Golini, Martina Nicole; Porta, Daniela; Stafoggia, Massimo; Forastiere, Francesco

2014-01-01

the Inverse probability weighting (IPW) is a methodology developed to account for missingness and selection bias caused by non-randomselection of observations, or non-random lack of some information in a subgroup of the population. to provide an overview of IPW methodology and an application in a cohort study of the association between exposure to traffic air pollution (nitrogen dioxide, NO₂) and 7-year children IQ. this methodology allows to correct the analysis by weighting the observations with the probability of being selected. The IPW is based on the assumption that individual information that can predict the probability of inclusion (non-missingness) are available for the entire study population, so that, after taking account of them, we can make inferences about the entire target population starting from the nonmissing observations alone.The procedure for the calculation is the following: firstly, we consider the entire population at study and calculate the probability of non-missing information using a logistic regression model, where the response is the nonmissingness and the covariates are its possible predictors.The weight of each subject is given by the inverse of the predicted probability. Then the analysis is performed only on the non-missing observations using a weighted model. IPW is a technique that allows to embed the selection process in the analysis of the estimates, but its effectiveness in "correcting" the selection bias depends on the availability of enough information, for the entire population, to predict the non-missingness probability. In the example proposed, the IPW application showed that the effect of exposure to NO2 on the area of verbal intelligence quotient of children is stronger than the effect showed from the analysis performed without regard to the selection processes.

Sandstone copper assessment of the Teniz Basin, Kazakhstan: Chapter R in Global mineral resource assessment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cossette, Pamela M.; Bookstrom, Arthur A.; Hayes, Timothy S.; Robinson, Gilpin R.; Wallis, John C.; Zientek, Michael L.

2014-01-01

A quantitative mineral resource assessment has been completed that (1) delineates one 49,714 km2 tract permissive for undiscovered, sandstone subtype, sediment-hosted stratabound copper deposits, and (2) provides probabilistic estimates of numbers of undiscovered deposits and probable amounts of copper resource contained in those deposits. The permissive tract delineated in this assessment encompasses no previously known sandstone subtype, sediment-hosted stratabound copper deposits. However, this assessment estimates (with 30 percent probability) that a mean of nine undiscovered sandstone subtype copper deposits may be present in the Teniz Basin and could contain a mean total of 8.9 million metric tons of copper and 7,500 metric tons of silver.

Gila Wilderness, New Mexico

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ratte, J.C.; Stotelmeyer, R.B.

1984-01-01

Geologic, geochemical, and geophysical indicators delineated during a study of the Gila Wilderness by the USGS and USBM from 1968 to 1971 indicate that there are areas of probable and substantiated mineral-resource potential for gold, silver, tellurium, molybdenum, copper, lead, zinc, and fluorite. The areas which have resource potential lie along both sides of the western and southwestern boundaries of the wilderness, and adjacent to the access corridor to the Gila Cliff Dwellings National Monument in the eastern part of the wilderness. Areas marked by geothermal springs along Turkey Creek and the Middle Fork of the Gila River have amore » probable potential for geothermal energy. No other energy-resource potential was identified within the study area.« less

CENTENNIAL MOUNTAINS WILDERNESS STUDY AREA, MONTANA AND IDAHO.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Witkind, Irving J.; Ridenour, James

1984-01-01

A mineral survey conducted within the Centennial Mountains Wilderness study area in Montana and Idaho showed large areas of probable and substantiated resource potential for phosphate. Byproducts that may be derived from processing the phosphate include vanadium, chromium, uranium, silver, fluorine, and the rare earths, lanthanum and yttrium. Results of a geochemical sampling program suggest that there is little promise for the occurrence of base and precious metals in the area. Although the area contains other nonmetallic deposits, such as coal, building stone, and pumiceous ash they are not considered as mineral resources. There is a probable resource potential for oil and gas and significant amounts may underlie the area around the Peet Creek and Odell Creek anticlines.

The anticipated transition to adulthood: effects of culture and individual experience on Polish and Finnish adolescents' future orientations.

PubMed

Trempala, J; Malmberg, L E

1998-05-01

The purpose of this study was to describe the effect of a set of individual resources and cultural factors on adolescents' probability estimations of the occurrence of positive future events in three life domains: education, occupation, and family. The hypothesis was that the effects of culture and individual resources are interwoven in the formation process of future orientation. The sample consisted of 352 17-year-old Polish and Finnish girls and boys from vocational and upper secondary schools. The 78-item questionnaire developed by the authors was used to measure different aspects of future orientation (probability, valence, and extension of future events in three life domains) and individual resources (self-esteem, control beliefs, and social knowledge about normatively and the generation gap). Data analysis showed that culture separately affected individual resources and adolescents' expectations. However, the results broadly confirmed the thesis that the culture has a limited effect on adolescents' expectations of the occurrence of future events. Moreover, these data suggested that the influence of sociocultural differences on adolescents' probability estimations is indirect. In the context of the presented data, the authors discuss their model of future orientation.

Using multilevel models to quantify heterogeneity in resource selection

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wagner, Tyler; Diefenbach, Duane R.; Christensen, Sonja; Norton, Andrew S.

2011-01-01

Models of resource selection are being used increasingly to predict or model the effects of management actions rather than simply quantifying habitat selection. Multilevel, or hierarchical, models are an increasingly popular method to analyze animal resource selection because they impose a relatively weak stochastic constraint to model heterogeneity in habitat use and also account for unequal sample sizes among individuals. However, few studies have used multilevel models to model coefficients as a function of predictors that may influence habitat use at different scales or quantify differences in resource selection among groups. We used an example with white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) to illustrate how to model resource use as a function of distance to road that varies among deer by road density at the home range scale. We found that deer avoidance of roads decreased as road density increased. Also, we used multilevel models with sika deer (Cervus nippon) and white-tailed deer to examine whether resource selection differed between species. We failed to detect differences in resource use between these two species and showed how information-theoretic and graphical measures can be used to assess how resource use may have differed. Multilevel models can improve our understanding of how resource selection varies among individuals and provides an objective, quantifiable approach to assess differences or changes in resource selection.

Fixation Probability in a Haploid-Diploid Population

PubMed Central

Bessho, Kazuhiro; Otto, Sarah P.

2017-01-01

Classical population genetic theory generally assumes either a fully haploid or fully diploid life cycle. However, many organisms exhibit more complex life cycles, with both free-living haploid and diploid stages. Here we ask what the probability of fixation is for selected alleles in organisms with haploid-diploid life cycles. We develop a genetic model that considers the population dynamics using both the Moran model and Wright–Fisher model. Applying a branching process approximation, we obtain an accurate fixation probability assuming that the population is large and the net effect of the mutation is beneficial. We also find the diffusion approximation for the fixation probability, which is accurate even in small populations and for deleterious alleles, as long as selection is weak. These fixation probabilities from branching process and diffusion approximations are similar when selection is weak for beneficial mutations that are not fully recessive. In many cases, particularly when one phase predominates, the fixation probability differs substantially for haploid-diploid organisms compared to either fully haploid or diploid species. PMID:27866168

Habitat selection of Rocky Mountain elk in a nonforested environment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sawyer, H.; Nielson, R.M.; Lindzey, F.G.; Keith, L.; Powell, J.H.; Abraham, A.A.

2007-01-01

Recent expansions by Rocky Mountain elk (Cervus elaphus) into nonforested habitats across the Intermountain West have required managers to reconsider the traditional paradigms of forage and cover as they relate to managing elk and their habitats. We examined seasonal habitat selection patterns of a hunted elk population in a nonforested high-desert region of southwestern Wyoming, USA. We used 35,246 global positioning system locations collected from 33 adult female elk to model probability of use as a function of 6 habitat variables: slope, aspect, elevation, habitat diversity, distance to shrub cover, and distance to road. We developed resource selection probability functions for individual elk, and then we averaged the coefficients to estimate population-level models for summer and winter periods. We used the population-level models to generate predictive maps by assigning pixels across the study area to 1 of 4 use categories (i.e., high, medium-high, medium-low, or low), based on quartiles of the predictions. Model coefficients and predictive maps indicated that elk selected for summer habitats characterized by higher elevations in areas of high vegetative diversity, close to shrub cover, northerly aspects, moderate slopes, and away from roads. Winter habitat selection patterns were similar, except elk shifted to areas with lower elevations and southerly aspects. We validated predictive maps by using 528 locations collected from an independent sample of radiomarked elk (n = 55) and calculating the proportion of locations that occurred in each of the 4 use categories. Together, the high- and medium-high use categories of the summer and winter predictive maps contained 92% and 74% of summer and winter elk locations, respectively. Our population-level models and associated predictive maps were successful in predicting winter and summer habitat use by elk in a nonforested environment. In the absence of forest cover, elk seemed to rely on a combination of shrubs, topography, and low human disturbance to meet their thermal and hiding cover requirements.

Smartphone technologies and Bayesian networks to assess shorebird habitat selection

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zeigler, Sara; Thieler, E. Robert; Gutierrez, Ben; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Hines, Megan K.; Fraser, James D.; Catlin, Daniel H.; Karpanty, Sarah M.

2017-01-01

Understanding patterns of habitat selection across a species’ geographic distribution can be critical for adequately managing populations and planning for habitat loss and related threats. However, studies of habitat selection can be time consuming and expensive over broad spatial scales, and a lack of standardized monitoring targets or methods can impede the generalization of site-based studies. Our objective was to collaborate with natural resource managers to define available nesting habitat for piping plovers (Charadrius melodus) throughout their U.S. Atlantic coast distribution from Maine to North Carolina, with a goal of providing science that could inform habitat management in response to sea-level rise. We characterized a data collection and analysis approach as being effective if it provided low-cost collection of standardized habitat-selection data across the species’ breeding range within 1–2 nesting seasons and accurate nesting location predictions. In the method developed, >30 managers and conservation practitioners from government agencies and private organizations used a smartphone application, “iPlover,” to collect data on landcover characteristics at piping plover nest locations and random points on 83 beaches and barrier islands in 2014 and 2015. We analyzed these data with a Bayesian network that predicted the probability a specific combination of landcover variables would be associated with a nesting site. Although we focused on a shorebird, our approach can be modified for other taxa. Results showed that the Bayesian network performed well in predicting habitat availability and confirmed predicted habitat preferences across the Atlantic coast breeding range of the piping plover. We used the Bayesian network to map areas with a high probability of containing nesting habitat on the Rockaway Peninsula in New York, USA, as an example application. Our approach facilitated the collation of evidence-based information on habitat selection from many locations and sources, which can be used in management and decision-making applications.

Forage site selection by lesser snow geese during autumn staging on the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hupp, Jerry W.; Robertson, Donna G.

1998-01-01

Lesser snow geese (Chen caerulescens caerulescens) of the Western Canadian Arctic Population feed intensively for 2-4 weeks on the coastal plain of the Beaufort Sea in Canada and Alaska at the beginning of their autumn migration. Petroleum leasing proposed for the Alaskan portion of the staging area on the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) could affect staging habitats and their use by geese. Therefore we studied availability, distribution, and use by snow geese of tall and russett cotton-grass (Eriophorum angustifolium and E. russeolum, respectively) feeding habitats on the ANWR. We studied selection of feeding habitats at 3 spatial scales (feeding sites [0.06 m2], feeding patches [ca. 100 m2], and feeding areas [>1 ha]) during 1990-93. We used logistic regression analysis to discriminate differences in soil moisture and vegetation between 1,548 feeding sites where snow geese exploited individual cotton-grass plants and 1,143 unexploited sites at 61 feeding patches in 1990. Feeding likelihood increased with greater soil moisture and decreased where nonforage species were present. We tested the logistic regression model in 1991 by releasing human-imprinted snow geese into 4 10 × 20-m enclosed plots where plant communities had been mapped, habitats sampled, and feeding probabilities calculated. Geese selected more feeding sites per square meter in areas of predicted high quality feeding habitat (feeding probability ≥ 0.6) than in medium (feeding probability = 0.3-0.59) or poor (feeding probability < 0.3) quality habitat (P < 0.0001). Geese increasingly used medium quality areas and spent more time feeding as trials progressed and forage was presumably reduced in high quality habitats. We examined relationships between underground biomass of plants, feeding probability, and surface microrelief at 474 0.06- m2 sites in 20 thermokarst pits in 1992. Feeding probability was correlated with the percentage of underground biomass composed of cotton-grass (r = 0.56). Feeding probability and relative availability of cotton-grass forage were highest in flooded soils along the ecotone of flooded and upland habitats. In 1992, we also used the logistic regression model to estimate availability of high quality feeding sites on 192 80 × 90-m plots that were randomly located on 24 study areas. A mean of 1.6% of the area sampled in each plot was classified as high quality feeding habitat at 23 of the study areas. Relative availability of high quality sites was highest in troughs, thermokarst pits, and water tracks because saturated soils in those microreliefs were dominated by cotton-grass. Relative availability of high quality sites was lower in saturated soils of basins (low-centered polygons, wet meadows, and strangmoor) because that microrelief was dominated by Carex spp. Most (63%) of the saturated area on the ANWR coastal plain was in basins. We examined distribution of feeding patches relative to microrelief in 49 snow goose feeding areas in 1993. Only 2.5% of the tundra in each feeding area was exploited by snow geese. Snow geese preferentially fed in thermokarst pits, water tracks, and troughs, and avoided basins and uplands. Feeding areas had more thermokarst pit but less basin microrelief than adjacent randomly-selected areas. Thermokarst pits and water tracks occurred most frequently in regions of the coastal plain where geese were observed most often during aerial surveys (1982-93). Microrelief influenced selection of feeding patches and feeding areas and may have affected snow goose distribution on the ANWR. Potential feeding patches were widely distributed but composed a small percentage (≤2.5%) of the tundra landscape and were highly interspersed with less suitable habitat. The Western Canadian Arctic Population probably used a large staging area on the Beaufort Sea coastal plain because snow geese exploited a spatially and temporally heterogeneous resource.

Estimating the Exceedance Probability of the Reservoir Inflow Based on the Long-Term Weather Outlooks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Q. Z.; Hsu, S. Y.; Li, M. H.

2016-12-01

The long-term streamflow prediction is important not only to estimate water-storage of a reservoir but also to the surface water intakes, which supply people's livelihood, agriculture, and industry. Climatology forecasts of streamflow have been traditionally used for calculating the exceedance probability curve of streamflow and water resource management. In this study, we proposed a stochastic approach to predict the exceedance probability curve of long-term streamflow with the seasonal weather outlook from Central Weather Bureau (CWB), Taiwan. The approach incorporates a statistical downscale weather generator and a catchment-scale hydrological model to convert the monthly outlook into daily rainfall and temperature series and to simulate the streamflow based on the outlook information. Moreover, we applied Bayes' theorem to derive a method for calculating the exceedance probability curve of the reservoir inflow based on the seasonal weather outlook and its imperfection. The results show that our approach can give the exceedance probability curves reflecting the three-month weather outlook and its accuracy. We also show how the improvement of the weather outlook affects the predicted exceedance probability curves of the streamflow. Our approach should be useful for the seasonal planning and management of water resource and their risk assessment.

How Life History Can Sway the Fixation Probability of Mutants

PubMed Central

Li, Xiang-Yi; Kurokawa, Shun; Giaimo, Stefano; Traulsen, Arne

2016-01-01

In this work, we study the effects of demographic structure on evolutionary dynamics when selection acts on reproduction, survival, or both. In contrast to the previously discovered pattern that the fixation probability of a neutral mutant decreases while the population becomes younger, we show that a mutant with a constant selective advantage may have a maximum or a minimum of the fixation probability in populations with an intermediate fraction of young individuals. This highlights the importance of life history and demographic structure in studying evolutionary dynamics. We also illustrate the fundamental differences between selection on reproduction and selection on survival when age structure is present. In addition, we evaluate the relative importance of size and structure of the population in determining the fixation probability of the mutant. Our work lays the foundation for also studying density- and frequency-dependent effects in populations when demographic structures cannot be neglected. PMID:27129737

Apparatus and method for managing digital resources by passing digital resource tokens between queues

DOEpatents

Crawford, H.J.; Lindenstruth, V.

1999-06-29

A method of managing digital resources of a digital system includes the step of reserving token values for certain digital resources in the digital system. A selected token value in a free-buffer-queue is then matched to an incoming digital resource request. The selected token value is then moved to a valid-request-queue. The selected token is subsequently removed from the valid-request-queue to allow a digital agent in the digital system to process the incoming digital resource request associated with the selected token. Thereafter, the selected token is returned to the free-buffer-queue. 6 figs.

Apparatus and method for managing digital resources by passing digital resource tokens between queues

DOEpatents

Crawford, Henry J.; Lindenstruth, Volker

1999-01-01

A method of managing digital resources of a digital system includes the step of reserving token values for certain digital resources in the digital system. A selected token value in a free-buffer-queue is then matched to an incoming digital resource request. The selected token value is then moved to a valid-request-queue. The selected token is subsequently removed from the valid-request-queue to allow a digital agent in the digital system to process the incoming digital resource request associated with the selected token. Thereafter, the selected token is returned to the free-buffer-queue.

Optimization of European call options considering physical delivery network and reservoir operation rules

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Wei-Chen; Hsu, Nien-Sheng; Cheng, Wen-Ming; Yeh, William W.-G.

2011-10-01

This paper develops alternative strategies for European call options for water purchase under hydrological uncertainties that can be used by water resources managers for decision making. Each alternative strategy maximizes its own objective over a selected sequence of future hydrology that is characterized by exceedance probability. Water trade provides flexibility and enhances water distribution system reliability. However, water trade between two parties in a regional water distribution system involves many issues, such as delivery network, reservoir operation rules, storage space, demand, water availability, uncertainty, and any existing contracts. An option is a security giving the right to buy or sell an asset; in our case, the asset is water. We extend a flow path-based water distribution model to include reservoir operation rules. The model simultaneously considers both the physical distribution network as well as the relationships between water sellers and buyers. We first test the model extension. Then we apply the proposed optimization model for European call options to the Tainan water distribution system in southern Taiwan. The formulation lends itself to a mixed integer linear programming model. We use the weighing method to formulate a composite function for a multiobjective problem. The proposed methodology provides water resources managers with an overall picture of water trade strategies and the consequence of each strategy. The results from the case study indicate that the strategy associated with a streamflow exceedence probability of 50% or smaller should be adopted as the reference strategy for the Tainan water distribution system.

A cautionary note on substituting spatial subunits for repeated temporal sampling in studies of site occupancy

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kendall, William L.; White, Gary C.

2009-01-01

1. Assessing the probability that a given site is occupied by a species of interest is important to resource managers, as well as metapopulation or landscape ecologists. Managers require accurate estimates of the state of the system, in order to make informed decisions. Models that yield estimates of occupancy, while accounting for imperfect detection, have proven useful by removing a potentially important source of bias. To account for detection probability, multiple independent searches per site for the species are required, under the assumption that the species is available for detection during each search of an occupied site. 2. We demonstrate that when multiple samples per site are defined by searching different locations within a site, absence of the species from a subset of these spatial subunits induces estimation bias when locations are exhaustively assessed or sampled without replacement. 3. We further demonstrate that this bias can be removed by choosing sampling locations with replacement, or if the species is highly mobile over a short period of time. 4. Resampling an existing data set does not mitigate bias due to exhaustive assessment of locations or sampling without replacement. 5. Synthesis and applications. Selecting sampling locations for presence/absence surveys with replacement is practical in most cases. Such an adjustment to field methods will prevent one source of bias, and therefore produce more robust statistical inferences about species occupancy. This will in turn permit managers to make resource decisions based on better knowledge of the state of the system.

Unconventional oil and gas development and its stresses on water resources in the context of Water-Energy-Food Nexus: The case of Weld County, Colorado

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oikonomou, P. D.; Waskom, R.; Boone, K.; Ryan, J. N.

2015-12-01

The development of unconventional oil and gas resources in Colorado started to rapidly increase since the early 2000's. The recent oil price plunge resulted in a decline of well starts' rate in the US, but in Weld County, Colorado, it is currently at the 2013-levels. The additional water demand, despite its insignificant percentage in overall state's demand (0.1% in 2012), it competes with traditional ones, since Colorado's water is almost fully appropriated. Presently, the state has 53,597 active producing oil and gas wells. More than 40% of these are located in Weld County, which happens also to be one of top food production U.S. counties. The competition for land and water resources between the energy and agricultural sectors in water stressed areas, like the western U.S., is further intensified if recycle and reuse practices are not preferred to water disposal by the energy industry. Satisfying the multiple objectives of the Water-Energy-Food Nexus in order to achieve sustainable economic development requires balanced management of these resources. Identifying pressures on key areas that food and energy sectors are competing for water, is essential for prudent water management and developing appropriate policies. Weld County, as a water stressed and fossil fuel producing area, was selected for investigating current stresses on local water resources alongside with future climatic and water demand scenarios for exploring probable long-term effects.

Review of sampling hard-to-reach and hidden populations for HIV surveillance.

PubMed

Magnani, Robert; Sabin, Keith; Saidel, Tobi; Heckathorn, Douglas

2005-05-01

Adequate surveillance of hard-to-reach and 'hidden' subpopulations is crucial to containing the HIV epidemic in low prevalence settings and in slowing the rate of transmission in high prevalence settings. For a variety of reasons, however, conventional facility and survey-based surveillance data collection strategies are ineffective for a number of key subpopulations, particularly those whose behaviors are illegal or illicit. This paper critically reviews alternative sampling strategies for undertaking behavioral or biological surveillance surveys of such groups. Non-probability sampling approaches such as facility-based sentinel surveillance and snowball sampling are the simplest to carry out, but are subject to a high risk of sampling/selection bias. Most of the probability sampling methods considered are limited in that they are adequate only under certain circumstances and for some groups. One relatively new method, respondent-driven sampling, an adaptation of chain-referral sampling, appears to be the most promising for general applications. However, as its applicability to HIV surveillance in resource-poor settings has yet to be established, further field trials are needed before a firm conclusion can be reached.

Streamflow characteristics based on data through water year 2009 for selected streamflow-gaging stations in or near Montana: Chapter E in Montana StreamStats

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCarthy, Peter M.

2016-04-05

Chapter E of this Scientific Investigations Report documents results from a study by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Montana Department of Environmental Quality and the Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation, to provide an update of statewide streamflow characteristics based on data through water year 2009 for streamflow-gaging stations in or near Montana. Streamflow characteristics are presented for 408 streamflow-gaging stations in Montana and adjacent areas having 10 or more years of record. Data include the magnitude and probability of annual low and high streamflow, the magnitude and probability of low streamflow for three seasons (March–June, July–October, and November–February), streamflow duration statistics for monthly and annual periods, and mean streamflows for monthly and annual periods. Streamflow is considered to be regulated at streamflow-gaging stations where dams or other large-scale human modifications affect 20 percent or more of the contributing drainage basin. Separate streamflow characteristics are presented for the unregulated and regulated periods of record for streamflow-gaging stations with sufficient data.

Application of random effects to the study of resource selection by animals

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gillies, C.S.; Hebblewhite, M.; Nielsen, S.E.; Krawchuk, M.A.; Aldridge, Cameron L.; Frair, J.L.; Saher, D.J.; Stevens, C.E.; Jerde, C.L.

2006-01-01

1. Resource selection estimated by logistic regression is used increasingly in studies to identify critical resources for animal populations and to predict species occurrence.2. Most frequently, individual animals are monitored and pooled to estimate population-level effects without regard to group or individual-level variation. Pooling assumes that both observations and their errors are independent, and resource selection is constant given individual variation in resource availability.3. Although researchers have identified ways to minimize autocorrelation, variation between individuals caused by differences in selection or available resources, including functional responses in resource selection, have not been well addressed.4. Here we review random-effects models and their application to resource selection modelling to overcome these common limitations. We present a simple case study of an analysis of resource selection by grizzly bears in the foothills of the Canadian Rocky Mountains with and without random effects.5. Both categorical and continuous variables in the grizzly bear model differed in interpretation, both in statistical significance and coefficient sign, depending on how a random effect was included. We used a simulation approach to clarify the application of random effects under three common situations for telemetry studies: (a) discrepancies in sample sizes among individuals; (b) differences among individuals in selection where availability is constant; and (c) differences in availability with and without a functional response in resource selection.6. We found that random intercepts accounted for unbalanced sample designs, and models with random intercepts and coefficients improved model fit given the variation in selection among individuals and functional responses in selection. Our empirical example and simulations demonstrate how including random effects in resource selection models can aid interpretation and address difficult assumptions limiting their generality. This approach will allow researchers to appropriately estimate marginal (population) and conditional (individual) responses, and account for complex grouping, unbalanced sample designs and autocorrelation.

Application of random effects to the study of resource selection by animals.

PubMed

Gillies, Cameron S; Hebblewhite, Mark; Nielsen, Scott E; Krawchuk, Meg A; Aldridge, Cameron L; Frair, Jacqueline L; Saher, D Joanne; Stevens, Cameron E; Jerde, Christopher L

2006-07-01

1. Resource selection estimated by logistic regression is used increasingly in studies to identify critical resources for animal populations and to predict species occurrence. 2. Most frequently, individual animals are monitored and pooled to estimate population-level effects without regard to group or individual-level variation. Pooling assumes that both observations and their errors are independent, and resource selection is constant given individual variation in resource availability. 3. Although researchers have identified ways to minimize autocorrelation, variation between individuals caused by differences in selection or available resources, including functional responses in resource selection, have not been well addressed. 4. Here we review random-effects models and their application to resource selection modelling to overcome these common limitations. We present a simple case study of an analysis of resource selection by grizzly bears in the foothills of the Canadian Rocky Mountains with and without random effects. 5. Both categorical and continuous variables in the grizzly bear model differed in interpretation, both in statistical significance and coefficient sign, depending on how a random effect was included. We used a simulation approach to clarify the application of random effects under three common situations for telemetry studies: (a) discrepancies in sample sizes among individuals; (b) differences among individuals in selection where availability is constant; and (c) differences in availability with and without a functional response in resource selection. 6. We found that random intercepts accounted for unbalanced sample designs, and models with random intercepts and coefficients improved model fit given the variation in selection among individuals and functional responses in selection. Our empirical example and simulations demonstrate how including random effects in resource selection models can aid interpretation and address difficult assumptions limiting their generality. This approach will allow researchers to appropriately estimate marginal (population) and conditional (individual) responses, and account for complex grouping, unbalanced sample designs and autocorrelation.

Perceptual salience affects the contents of working memory during free-recollection of objects from natural scenes

PubMed Central

Pedale, Tiziana; Santangelo, Valerio

2015-01-01

One of the most important issues in the study of cognition is to understand which are the factors determining internal representation of the external world. Previous literature has started to highlight the impact of low-level sensory features (indexed by saliency-maps) in driving attention selection, hence increasing the probability for objects presented in complex and natural scenes to be successfully encoded into working memory (WM) and then correctly remembered. Here we asked whether the probability of retrieving high-saliency objects modulates the overall contents of WM, by decreasing the probability of retrieving other, lower-saliency objects. We presented pictures of natural scenes for 4 s. After a retention period of 8 s, we asked participants to verbally report as many objects/details as possible of the previous scenes. We then computed how many times the objects located at either the peak of maximal or minimal saliency in the scene (as indexed by a saliency-map; Itti et al., 1998) were recollected by participants. Results showed that maximal-saliency objects were recollected more often and earlier in the stream of successfully reported items than minimal-saliency objects. This indicates that bottom-up sensory salience increases the recollection probability and facilitates the access to memory representation at retrieval, respectively. Moreover, recollection of the maximal- (but not the minimal-) saliency objects predicted the overall amount of successfully recollected objects: The higher the probability of having successfully reported the most-salient object in the scene, the lower the amount of recollected objects. These findings highlight that bottom-up sensory saliency modulates the current contents of WM during recollection of objects from natural scenes, most likely by reducing available resources to encode and then retrieve other (lower saliency) objects. PMID:25741266

Design and Weighting Methods for a Nationally Representative Sample of HIV-infected Adults Receiving Medical Care in the United States-Medical Monitoring Project

PubMed Central

Iachan, Ronaldo; H. Johnson, Christopher; L. Harding, Richard; Kyle, Tonja; Saavedra, Pedro; L. Frazier, Emma; Beer, Linda; L. Mattson, Christine; Skarbinski, Jacek

2016-01-01

Background: Health surveys of the general US population are inadequate for monitoring human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection because the relatively low prevalence of the disease (<0.5%) leads to small subpopulation sample sizes. Objective: To collect a nationally and locally representative probability sample of HIV-infected adults receiving medical care to monitor clinical and behavioral outcomes, supplementing the data in the National HIV Surveillance System. This paper describes the sample design and weighting methods for the Medical Monitoring Project (MMP) and provides estimates of the size and characteristics of this population. Methods: To develop a method for obtaining valid, representative estimates of the in-care population, we implemented a cross-sectional, three-stage design that sampled 23 jurisdictions, then 691 facilities, then 9,344 HIV patients receiving medical care, using probability-proportional-to-size methods. The data weighting process followed standard methods, accounting for the probabilities of selection at each stage and adjusting for nonresponse and multiplicity. Nonresponse adjustments accounted for differing response at both facility and patient levels. Multiplicity adjustments accounted for visits to more than one HIV care facility. Results: MMP used a multistage stratified probability sampling design that was approximately self-weighting in each of the 23 project areas and nationally. The probability sample represents the estimated 421,186 HIV-infected adults receiving medical care during January through April 2009. Methods were efficient (i.e., induced small, unequal weighting effects and small standard errors for a range of weighted estimates). Conclusion: The information collected through MMP allows monitoring trends in clinical and behavioral outcomes and informs resource allocation for treatment and prevention activities. PMID:27651851

Water resources and potential effects of surface coal mining in the area of the Woodson Preference Right Lease Application, Montana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cannon, M.R.

1987-01-01

Federal coal lands of the Woodson Preference Right Lease Application are located in Dawson and Richland Counties, northeastern Montana. A probable mine area, comprised of the lease area and adjacent coal lands, contains about 220 million tons of recoverable lignite coal in the 12-37 ft thick Pust coal bed. A hydrologic study has been conducted in the area to describe the water resources and to evaluate potential effects of coal mining on the water resources. Geohydrologic data collected from wells and springs indicate that several aquifers exist in the area. Sandstone beds in the Tongue River Member of the Fort Union Formation (Paleocene age) are the most common aquifers and probably underlie the entire area. The Pust coal bed in the Tongue River Member is water saturated in part of the probable mine area and is dry in other parts of the probable mine area. Other aquifers, located mostly outside of the probable mine area, exist in gravel of the Flaxville Formation (Miocene of Pliocene age) and valley alluvium (Pleistocene and Holocene age). Chemical analyses of groundwater indicate a range in dissolved solids concentration of 240-2,280 mg/L. Surface water resources are limited. Most streams in the area are ephemeral and flow only in response to rainfall or snowmelt. Small reaches of the North and Middle Forks of Burns Creek have intermittent flow. Water sampled from a small perennial reach of the Middle Fork had a dissolved solids concentration of 700 mg/L. Mining of the Pust coal bed would destroy one spring and four stock wells, dewater areas of the Pust coal and sandstone aquifers, and probably lower water levels in seven stock and domestic wells. Mining in the valley of Middle Fork Burns Creek would intercept streamflow and alter flow characteristics of a small perennial reach of stream. Leaching of soluble minerals from mine spoils may cause a long-term degradation of the quality of water in the spoils and in aquifers downgradient from the spoils. Some of the effects on local water supplies could be mitigated by development of new wells in deeper sandstones of the Tongue River Member. Effects of mining on water resources would be minimized if only areas of dry coal were mined. (Author 's abstract)

Correlation signatures of wet soils and snows. [algorithm development and computer programming

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Phillips, M. R.

1972-01-01

Interpretation, analysis, and development of algorithms have provided the necessary computational programming tools for soil data processing, data handling and analysis. Algorithms that have been developed thus far, are adequate and have been proven successful for several preliminary and fundamental applications such as software interfacing capabilities, probability distributions, grey level print plotting, contour plotting, isometric data displays, joint probability distributions, boundary mapping, channel registration and ground scene classification. A description of an Earth Resources Flight Data Processor, (ERFDP), which handles and processes earth resources data under a users control is provided.

Probable effects on ground-water resources from construction of the proposed Grand River cut-off channel west of Lansing, Mich.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ferris, John G.

1950-01-01

This memorandum summarize information brought out in correspondence between the office of the District Engineer of the Milwaukee District, U.S. Corps of Engineers, and the District Office of the Ground Water Branch of the U.S. Geological Survey at Lansing, Mich., concerning the probable effects on the ground-water resources of the Lansing area from the construction of a proposed flood-water cut-off channel for the Grand River to extend from Millett to Delta Mills, in Eaton County, Mich.

Mineral resource potential map of the Gila-San Francisco Wilderness Study Area, Graham and Greenlee counties, Arizona

USGS Publications Warehouse

Richter, Donlad H.; Klein, Douglas P.; Lawrence, Viki A.; Lane, Michael

1982-01-01

The mineral resource potential of the Gila-San Francisco Wilderness Study Area (AZ-040-022/023/024) is low (fig. 2). Although favorable geologic environments for placer gold deposits and manganese vein deposits are present in the study area, the probability of discovering economically exploitable deposits of these metals is low, and not encouraging. Even more speculative is the study area's porphyry copper potential which is based solely on the possibility of favorable host terranes underlying the study area at depth. The study area does contain substantial deposits of pumice, but their economic significance is probably minor. A part of the study area has been previously designated a Known Geothermal Resource Area (KGRA).

A Primer for Model Selection: The Decisive Role of Model Complexity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Höge, Marvin; Wöhling, Thomas; Nowak, Wolfgang

2018-03-01

Selecting a "best" model among several competing candidate models poses an often encountered problem in water resources modeling (and other disciplines which employ models). For a modeler, the best model fulfills a certain purpose best (e.g., flood prediction), which is typically assessed by comparing model simulations to data (e.g., stream flow). Model selection methods find the "best" trade-off between good fit with data and model complexity. In this context, the interpretations of model complexity implied by different model selection methods are crucial, because they represent different underlying goals of modeling. Over the last decades, numerous model selection criteria have been proposed, but modelers who primarily want to apply a model selection criterion often face a lack of guidance for choosing the right criterion that matches their goal. We propose a classification scheme for model selection criteria that helps to find the right criterion for a specific goal, i.e., which employs the correct complexity interpretation. We identify four model selection classes which seek to achieve high predictive density, low predictive error, high model probability, or shortest compression of data. These goals can be achieved by following either nonconsistent or consistent model selection and by either incorporating a Bayesian parameter prior or not. We allocate commonly used criteria to these four classes, analyze how they represent model complexity and what this means for the model selection task. Finally, we provide guidance on choosing the right type of criteria for specific model selection tasks. (A quick guide through all key points is given at the end of the introduction.)

Sustainability of portable water services in the Philippines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bohm, Robert A.; Essenburg, Timothy J.; Fox, William F.

1993-07-01

Financial sustainability of rural water systems in the Philippines is evaluated based on a comparison of willingness to pay for improved water and the costs of service delivery. Willingness to pay estimates indicate that user fees are unlikely to be sufficient to cover the full cost of service and subsidies are necessary, at least for a major portion of capital costs, or the water systems will become unsustainable because of insufficient resources. Sustainability is more probable when care is exercised in selecting villages for improved water services. Economies of scale lead to lower unit costs in larger villages. Willingness to pay is greater for household connections than for public faucets. Willingness to pay increases with income and wealth, family size, education, and dissatisfaction with traditional water sources.

The preference of probability over negative values in action selection.

PubMed

Neyedli, Heather F; Welsh, Timothy N

2015-01-01

It has previously been found that when participants are presented with a pair of motor prospects, they can select the prospect with the largest maximum expected gain (MEG). Many of those decisions, however, were trivial because of large differences in MEG between the prospects. The purpose of the present study was to explore participants' preferences when making non-trivial decisions between two motor prospects. Participants were presented with pairs of prospects that: 1) differed in MEG with either only the values or only the probabilities differing between the prospects; and 2) had similar MEG with one prospect having a larger probability of hitting the target and a higher penalty value and the other prospect a smaller probability of hitting the target but a lower penalty value. In different experiments, participants either had 400 ms or 2000 ms to decide between the prospects. It was found that participants chose the configuration with the larger MEG more often when the probability varied between prospects than when the value varied. In pairs with similar MEGs, participants preferred a larger probability of hitting the target over a smaller penalty value. These results indicate that participants prefer probability information over negative value information in a motor selection task.

Prevalence and Correlates of Sleep Problems in Adult Israeli Jews Exposed to Actual or Threatened Terrorist or Rocket Attacks

PubMed Central

Palmieri, Patrick A.; Chipman, Katie J.; Canetti, Daphna; Johnson, Robert J.; Hobfoll, Stevan E.

2010-01-01

Study Objectives: To estimate the prevalence of, and to identify correlates of clinically significant sleep problems in adult Israeli citizens exposed to chronic terrorism and war trauma or threat thereof. Methods: A population-based, cross-sectional study of 1001 adult Israeli citizens interviewed by phone between July 15 and August 26, 2008. The phone survey was conducted in Hebrew and assessed demographics, trauma/stressor exposure, probable posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), probable depression, and sleep problems. Probable PTSD and depression were assessed with the PTSD Symptom Scale (PSS) and Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9), respectively, following DSM-IV diagnostic criteria. Sleep problems in the past month were assessed with the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (PSQI), on which a global composite score ≥ 6 indicates a clinical-level sleep problem. Results: Prevalence of probable PTSD and depression was 5.5% and 5.8%, respectively. Prevalence of clinically significant sleep problems was 37.4% overall, but was significantly higher for probable PTSD (81.8%) and probable depression (79.3%) subgroups. Independent correlates of poor sleep included being female, older, less educated, experiencing major life stressors, and experiencing psychosocial resource loss. Psychosocial resource loss due to terrorist attacks emerged as the strongest potentially modifiable risk factor for sleep problems. Conclusions: Sleep problems are common among Israeli adults living under chronic traumatic threat and trauma exposure. Given the continuing threat of war, interventions that bolster psychosocial resources may play an important role in preventing or alleviating sleep problems in this population. Citation: Palmieri PA; Chipman KJ; Canetti D; Johnson RJ; Hobfoll SE. Prevalence and correlates of sleep problems in adult Israeli Jews exposed to actual or threatened terrorist or rocket attacks. J Clin Sleep Med 2010;6(6):557-564. PMID:21206544

Immigration, stress, and depressive symptoms in a Mexican-American community.

PubMed

Golding, J M; Burnam, M A

1990-03-01

This study assessed levels of depressive symptomatology in a household probability sample of Mexico-born (N = 706) and U.S.-born (N = 538) Mexican Americans. We hypothesized that immigration status differences in acculturation, strain, social resources, and social conflict, as well as differences in the associations of these variables with depression, would account for differences in depression between U.S.-born and Mexico-born respondents. U.S.-born Mexican Americans had higher depression scores than those born in Mexico. When cultural and social psychological variables were controlled in a multiple regression analysis, the immigrant status difference persisted. Tests of interaction terms suggested greater vulnerability to the effects of low acculturation and low educational attainment among the U.S.-born relative to those born in Mexico; however, the immigrant status difference persisted after controlling for these interactions. Unmeasured variables such as selective migration of persons with better coping skills, selective return of depressed immigrants, or generational differences in social comparison processes may account for the immigration status difference.

Specialized Representations of Value in the Orbital and Ventrolateral Prefrontal Cortex: Desirability versus Availability of Outcomes.

PubMed

Rudebeck, Peter H; Saunders, Richard C; Lundgren, Dawn A; Murray, Elisabeth A

2017-08-30

Advantageous foraging choices benefit from an estimation of two aspects of a resource's value: its current desirability and availability. Both orbitofrontal and ventrolateral prefrontal areas contribute to updating these valuations, but their precise roles remain unclear. To explore their specializations, we trained macaque monkeys on two tasks: one required updating representations of a predicted outcome's desirability, as adjusted by selective satiation, and the other required updating representations of an outcome's availability, as indexed by its probability. We evaluated performance on both tasks in three groups of monkeys: unoperated controls and those with selective, fiber-sparing lesions of either the OFC or VLPFC. Representations that depend on the VLPFC but not the OFC play a necessary role in choices based on outcome availability; in contrast, representations that depend on the OFC but not the VLPFC play a necessary role in choices based on outcome desirability. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Lunar Base Sitting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Staehle, Robert L.; Burke, James D.; Snyder, Gerald C.; Dowling, Richard; Spudis, Paul D.

1993-12-01

Speculation with regard to a permanent lunar base has been with us since Robert Goddard was working on the first liquid-fueled rockets in the 1920's. With the infusion of data from the Apollo Moon flights, a once speculative area of space exploration has become an exciting possibility. A Moon base is not only a very real possibility, but is probably a critical element in the continuation of our piloted space program. This article, originally drafted by World Space Foundation volunteers in conjuction with various academic and research groups, examines some of the strategies involved in selecting an appropriate site for such a lunar base. Site selection involves a number of complex variables, including raw materials for possible rocket propellant generation, hot an cold cycles, view of the sky (for astronomical considerations, among others), geological makeup of the region, and more. This article summarizes the key base siting considerations and suggests some alternatives. Availability of specific resources, including energy and certain minerals, is critical to success.

Lunar Base Sitting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Staehle, Robert L.; Burke, James D.; Snyder, Gerald C.; Dowling, Richard; Spudis, Paul D.

1993-01-01

Speculation with regard to a permanent lunar base has been with us since Robert Goddard was working on the first liquid-fueled rockets in the 1920's. With the infusion of data from the Apollo Moon flights, a once speculative area of space exploration has become an exciting possibility. A Moon base is not only a very real possibility, but is probably a critical element in the continuation of our piloted space program. This article, originally drafted by World Space Foundation volunteers in conjuction with various academic and research groups, examines some of the strategies involved in selecting an appropriate site for such a lunar base. Site selection involves a number of complex variables, including raw materials for possible rocket propellant generation, hot an cold cycles, view of the sky (for astronomical considerations, among others), geological makeup of the region, and more. This article summarizes the key base siting considerations and suggests some alternatives. Availability of specific resources, including energy and certain minerals, is critical to success.

Evolution of resource cycling in ecosystems and individuals.

PubMed

Crombach, Anton; Hogeweg, Paulien

2009-06-01

Resource cycling is a defining process in the maintenance of the biosphere. Microbial communities, ranging from simple to highly diverse, play a crucial role in this process. Yet the evolutionary adaptation and speciation of micro-organisms have rarely been studied in the context of resource cycling. In this study, our basic questions are how does a community evolve its resource usage and how are resource cycles partitioned? We design a computational model in which a population of individuals evolves to take up nutrients and excrete waste. The waste of one individual is another's resource. Given a fixed amount of resources, this leads to resource cycles. We find that the shortest cycle dominates the ecological dynamics, and over evolutionary time its length is minimized. Initially a single lineage processes a long cycle of resources, later crossfeeding lineages arise. The evolutionary dynamics that follow are determined by the strength of indirect selection for resource cycling. We study indirect selection by changing the spatial setting and the strength of direct selection. If individuals are fixed at lattice sites or direct selection is low, indirect selection result in lineages that structure their local environment, leading to 'smart' individuals and stable patterns of resource dynamics. The individuals are good at cycling resources themselves and do this with a short cycle. On the other hand, if individuals randomly change position each time step, or direct selection is high, individuals are more prone to crossfeeding: an ecosystem based solution with turbulent resource dynamics, and individuals that are less capable of cycling resources themselves. In a baseline model of ecosystem evolution we demonstrate different eco-evolutionary trajectories of resource cycling. By varying the strength of indirect selection through the spatial setting and direct selection, the integration of information by the evolutionary process leads to qualitatively different results from individual smartness to cooperative community structures.

Fixation Probability in a Haploid-Diploid Population.

PubMed

Bessho, Kazuhiro; Otto, Sarah P

2017-01-01

Classical population genetic theory generally assumes either a fully haploid or fully diploid life cycle. However, many organisms exhibit more complex life cycles, with both free-living haploid and diploid stages. Here we ask what the probability of fixation is for selected alleles in organisms with haploid-diploid life cycles. We develop a genetic model that considers the population dynamics using both the Moran model and Wright-Fisher model. Applying a branching process approximation, we obtain an accurate fixation probability assuming that the population is large and the net effect of the mutation is beneficial. We also find the diffusion approximation for the fixation probability, which is accurate even in small populations and for deleterious alleles, as long as selection is weak. These fixation probabilities from branching process and diffusion approximations are similar when selection is weak for beneficial mutations that are not fully recessive. In many cases, particularly when one phase predominates, the fixation probability differs substantially for haploid-diploid organisms compared to either fully haploid or diploid species. Copyright © 2017 by the Genetics Society of America.

Neural substrates of reward magnitude, probability, and risk during a wheel of fortune decision-making task.

PubMed

Smith, Bruce W; Mitchell, Derek G V; Hardin, Michael G; Jazbec, Sandra; Fridberg, Daniel; Blair, R James R; Ernst, Monique

2009-01-15

Economic decision-making involves the weighting of magnitude and probability of potential gains/losses. While previous work has examined the neural systems involved in decision-making, there is a need to understand how the parameters associated with decision-making (e.g., magnitude of expected reward, probability of expected reward and risk) modulate activation within these neural systems. In the current fMRI study, we modified the monetary wheel of fortune (WOF) task [Ernst, M., Nelson, E.E., McClure, E.B., Monk, C.S., Munson, S., Eshel, N., et al. (2004). Choice selection and reward anticipation: an fMRI study. Neuropsychologia 42(12), 1585-1597.] to examine in 25 healthy young adults the neural responses to selections of different reward magnitudes, probabilities, or risks. Selection of high, relative to low, reward magnitude increased activity in insula, amygdala, middle and posterior cingulate cortex, and basal ganglia. Selection of low-probability, as opposed to high-probability reward, increased activity in anterior cingulate cortex, as did selection of risky, relative to safe reward. In summary, decision-making that did not involve conflict, as in the magnitude contrast, recruited structures known to support the coding of reward values, and those that integrate motivational and perceptual information for behavioral responses. In contrast, decision-making under conflict, as in the probability and risk contrasts, engaged the dorsal anterior cingulate cortex whose role in conflict monitoring is well established. However, decision-making under conflict failed to activate the structures that track reward values per se. Thus, the presence of conflict in decision-making seemed to significantly alter the pattern of neural responses to simple rewards. In addition, this paradigm further clarifies the functional specialization of the cingulate cortex in processes of decision-making.

WEST NEEDLE WILDERNESS STUDY AREA, COLORADO.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Van Loenen, Richard E.; Scott, David C.

1984-01-01

The West Needle Wilderness Study Area, southwestern Colorado, was evaluated for mineral-resource potential. An area extending westward into the wilderness near the Elk Park mine, has a probable mineral-resource potential for uranium. Uranium resources, and associated silver, nickel, cobalt, and copper, are located at the Elk Park mine, directly adjacent to the eastern study area boundary. No potential for other mineral or energy resources was identified in this study.

Genome-wide comparative diversity uncovers multiple targets of selection for improvement in hexaploid wheat landraces and cultivars.

PubMed

Cavanagh, Colin R; Chao, Shiaoman; Wang, Shichen; Huang, Bevan Emma; Stephen, Stuart; Kiani, Seifollah; Forrest, Kerrie; Saintenac, Cyrille; Brown-Guedira, Gina L; Akhunova, Alina; See, Deven; Bai, Guihua; Pumphrey, Michael; Tomar, Luxmi; Wong, Debbie; Kong, Stephan; Reynolds, Matthew; da Silva, Marta Lopez; Bockelman, Harold; Talbert, Luther; Anderson, James A; Dreisigacker, Susanne; Baenziger, Stephen; Carter, Arron; Korzun, Viktor; Morrell, Peter Laurent; Dubcovsky, Jorge; Morell, Matthew K; Sorrells, Mark E; Hayden, Matthew J; Akhunov, Eduard

2013-05-14

Domesticated crops experience strong human-mediated selection aimed at developing high-yielding varieties adapted to local conditions. To detect regions of the wheat genome subject to selection during improvement, we developed a high-throughput array to interrogate 9,000 gene-associated single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) in a worldwide sample of 2,994 accessions of hexaploid wheat including landraces and modern cultivars. Using a SNP-based diversity map we characterized the impact of crop improvement on genomic and geographic patterns of genetic diversity. We found evidence of a small population bottleneck and extensive use of ancestral variation often traceable to founders of cultivars from diverse geographic regions. Analyzing genetic differentiation among populations and the extent of haplotype sharing, we identified allelic variants subjected to selection during improvement. Selective sweeps were found around genes involved in the regulation of flowering time and phenology. An introgression of a wild relative-derived gene conferring resistance to a fungal pathogen was detected by haplotype-based analysis. Comparing selective sweeps identified in different populations, we show that selection likely acts on distinct targets or multiple functionally equivalent alleles in different portions of the geographic range of wheat. The majority of the selected alleles were present at low frequency in local populations, suggesting either weak selection pressure or temporal variation in the targets of directional selection during breeding probably associated with changing agricultural practices or environmental conditions. The developed SNP chip and map of genetic variation provide a resource for advancing wheat breeding and supporting future population genomic and genome-wide association studies in wheat.

Genome-wide comparative diversity uncovers multiple targets of selection for improvement in hexaploid wheat landraces and cultivars

PubMed Central

Cavanagh, Colin R.; Chao, Shiaoman; Wang, Shichen; Huang, Bevan Emma; Stephen, Stuart; Kiani, Seifollah; Forrest, Kerrie; Saintenac, Cyrille; Brown-Guedira, Gina L.; Akhunova, Alina; See, Deven; Bai, Guihua; Pumphrey, Michael; Tomar, Luxmi; Wong, Debbie; Kong, Stephan; Reynolds, Matthew; da Silva, Marta Lopez; Bockelman, Harold; Talbert, Luther; Anderson, James A.; Dreisigacker, Susanne; Baenziger, Stephen; Carter, Arron; Korzun, Viktor; Morrell, Peter Laurent; Dubcovsky, Jorge; Morell, Matthew K.; Sorrells, Mark E.; Hayden, Matthew J.; Akhunov, Eduard

2013-01-01

Domesticated crops experience strong human-mediated selection aimed at developing high-yielding varieties adapted to local conditions. To detect regions of the wheat genome subject to selection during improvement, we developed a high-throughput array to interrogate 9,000 gene-associated single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) in a worldwide sample of 2,994 accessions of hexaploid wheat including landraces and modern cultivars. Using a SNP-based diversity map we characterized the impact of crop improvement on genomic and geographic patterns of genetic diversity. We found evidence of a small population bottleneck and extensive use of ancestral variation often traceable to founders of cultivars from diverse geographic regions. Analyzing genetic differentiation among populations and the extent of haplotype sharing, we identified allelic variants subjected to selection during improvement. Selective sweeps were found around genes involved in the regulation of flowering time and phenology. An introgression of a wild relative-derived gene conferring resistance to a fungal pathogen was detected by haplotype-based analysis. Comparing selective sweeps identified in different populations, we show that selection likely acts on distinct targets or multiple functionally equivalent alleles in different portions of the geographic range of wheat. The majority of the selected alleles were present at low frequency in local populations, suggesting either weak selection pressure or temporal variation in the targets of directional selection during breeding probably associated with changing agricultural practices or environmental conditions. The developed SNP chip and map of genetic variation provide a resource for advancing wheat breeding and supporting future population genomic and genome-wide association studies in wheat. PMID:23630259

HUNTER-FRYINGPAN WILDERNESS AND PORPHYRY MOUNTAIN WILDERNESS STUDY AREA, COLORADO.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ludington, Steve; Ellis, Clarence E.

1984-01-01

A mineral survey of the Hunter-Fryingpan Wilderness and the Porphyry Mountain Wilderness study area, Colorado was conducted. Substantiated gold and silver resource potential was identified in one area and a surrounding area is judged to have probable mineral-resource potential for gold and silver. No other mineral or energy resources were identified in the study.

MINARETS WILDERNESS AND ADJACENT AREAS, CALIFORNIA.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Huber, N. King; Thurber, Horace K.

1984-01-01

A mineral survey of the Minarets Wilderness and adjacent areas in the central Sierra Nevada, California was conducted. The results of the survey indicate that the study area has a substantiated resource potential for small deposits of copper, silver, zinc, lead, and iron, and a probable mineral-resource potential for molybdenum. No energy-resource potential was identified in the study.

Combining US and Brazilian microsatellite data for a meta-analysis of sheep (Ovis aries) breed diversity: facilitating the FAO Global Plan of Action for Conserving Animal Genetic Resources.

PubMed

Paiva, Samuel Rezende; Mariante, Arthur da Silva; Blackburn, Harvey D

2011-01-01

Microsatellites are commonly used to understand genetic diversity among livestock populations. Nevertheless, most studies have involved the processing of samples in one laboratory or with common standards across laboratories. Our objective was to identify an approach to facilitate the merger of microsatellite data for cross-country comparison of genetic resources when samples were not evaluated in a single laboratory. Eleven microsatellites were included in the analysis of 13 US and 9 Brazilian sheep breeds (N = 706). A Bayesian approach was selected and evaluated with and without a shared set of samples analyzed by each country. All markers had a posterior probability of greater than 0.5, which was higher than predicted as reasonable by the software used. Sensitivity analysis indicated no difference between results with or without shared samples. Cluster analysis showed breeds to be partitioned by functional groups of hair, meat, or wool types (K = 7 and 12 of STRUCTURE). Cross-country comparison of hair breeds indicated substantial genetic distances and within breed variability. The selected approach can facilitate the merger and analysis of microsatellite data for cross-country comparison and extend the utility of previously collected molecular markers. In addition, the result of this type of analysis can be used in new and existing conservation programs.

Validation of elk resource selection models with spatially independent data

Treesearch

Priscilla K. Coe; Bruce K. Johnson; Michael J. Wisdom; John G. Cook; Marty Vavra; Ryan M. Nielson

2011-01-01

Knowledge of how landscape features affect wildlife resource use is essential for informed management. Resource selection functions often are used to make and validate predictions about landscape use; however, resource selection functions are rarely validated with data from landscapes independent of those from which the models were built. This problem has severely...

Resource utilization by foraging eastern red bats (Lasiurus borealis) in the Ozark Region of Missouri

Treesearch

Sybill K. Amelon; Frank R. III Thompson; Joshua J. Millspaugh

2014-01-01

Resource selection by animals influences ecological processes such as dispersal, reproduction, foraging, and migration. Little information exists regarding foraging resource selection by bats during the maternity season. We evaluated support for effects of landcover type, landform, and landscape pattern on resource selection by individual foraging female eastern red...

Policy, Guidelines, and Procedures for the Selection and Classification of Provincially Authorized Learning Resources. Revised.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Adamson, Martin; And Others

Intended for use by curriculum committees or individuals charged with responsibility for the selection of provincially authorized learning resources, this document contains guidelines and procedures intended to serve as minimum standard requirements for the provincial evaluation and selection of learning resources. Learning resources are defined…

Resource selection during brood-rearing by Greater Sage-Grouse [chapter 12

Treesearch

Nicholas W. Kaczor; Katie M. Herman-Brunson; Kent C. Jensen; Mark A. Rumble; Robert W. Klaver; Christopher C. Swanson

2011-01-01

Understanding population dynamics and resource selection is crucial in developing wildlife resource management plans for sensitive species such as Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus). Little is known about sage grouse habitats on the eastern edge of their range. We investigated resource selection of Greater Sage-Grouse during brood- rearing in North and...

A Deterministic Approach to Active Debris Removal Target Selection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lidtke, A.; Lewis, H.; Armellin, R.

2014-09-01

Many decisions, with widespread economic, political and legal consequences, are being considered based on space debris simulations that show that Active Debris Removal (ADR) may be necessary as the concerns about the sustainability of spaceflight are increasing. The debris environment predictions are based on low-accuracy ephemerides and propagators. This raises doubts about the accuracy of those prognoses themselves but also the potential ADR target-lists that are produced. Target selection is considered highly important as removal of many objects will increase the overall mission cost. Selecting the most-likely candidates as soon as possible would be desirable as it would enable accurate mission design and allow thorough evaluation of in-orbit validations, which are likely to occur in the near-future, before any large investments are made and implementations realized. One of the primary factors that should be used in ADR target selection is the accumulated collision probability of every object. A conjunction detection algorithm, based on the smart sieve method, has been developed. Another algorithm is then applied to the found conjunctions to compute the maximum and true probabilities of collisions taking place. The entire framework has been verified against the Conjunction Analysis Tools in AGIs Systems Toolkit and relative probability error smaller than 1.5% has been achieved in the final maximum collision probability. Two target-lists are produced based on the ranking of the objects according to the probability they will take part in any collision over the simulated time window. These probabilities are computed using the maximum probability approach, that is time-invariant, and estimates of the true collision probability that were computed with covariance information. The top-priority targets are compared, and the impacts of the data accuracy and its decay are highlighted. General conclusions regarding the importance of Space Surveillance and Tracking for the purpose of ADR are also drawn and a deterministic method for ADR target selection, which could reduce the number of ADR missions to be performed, is proposed.

Screened selection design for randomised phase II oncology trials: an example in chronic lymphocytic leukaemia

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background As there are limited patients for chronic lymphocytic leukaemia trials, it is important that statistical methodologies in Phase II efficiently select regimens for subsequent evaluation in larger-scale Phase III trials. Methods We propose the screened selection design (SSD), which is a practical multi-stage, randomised Phase II design for two experimental arms. Activity is first evaluated by applying Simon’s two-stage design (1989) on each arm. If both are active, the play-the-winner selection strategy proposed by Simon, Wittes and Ellenberg (SWE) (1985) is applied to select the superior arm. A variant of the design, Modified SSD, also allows the arm with the higher response rates to be recommended only if its activity rate is greater by a clinically-relevant value. The operating characteristics are explored via a simulation study and compared to a Bayesian Selection approach. Results Simulations showed that with the proposed SSD, it is possible to retain the sample size as required in SWE and obtain similar probabilities of selecting the correct superior arm of at least 90%; with the additional attractive benefit of reducing the probability of selecting ineffective arms. This approach is comparable to a Bayesian Selection Strategy. The Modified SSD performs substantially better than the other designs in selecting neither arm if the underlying rates for both arms are desirable but equivalent, allowing for other factors to be considered in the decision making process. Though its probability of correctly selecting a superior arm might be reduced, it still performs reasonably well. It also reduces the probability of selecting an inferior arm. Conclusions SSD provides an easy to implement randomised Phase II design that selects the most promising treatment that has shown sufficient evidence of activity, with available R codes to evaluate its operating characteristics. PMID:23819695

Screened selection design for randomised phase II oncology trials: an example in chronic lymphocytic leukaemia.

PubMed

Yap, Christina; Pettitt, Andrew; Billingham, Lucinda

2013-07-03

As there are limited patients for chronic lymphocytic leukaemia trials, it is important that statistical methodologies in Phase II efficiently select regimens for subsequent evaluation in larger-scale Phase III trials. We propose the screened selection design (SSD), which is a practical multi-stage, randomised Phase II design for two experimental arms. Activity is first evaluated by applying Simon's two-stage design (1989) on each arm. If both are active, the play-the-winner selection strategy proposed by Simon, Wittes and Ellenberg (SWE) (1985) is applied to select the superior arm. A variant of the design, Modified SSD, also allows the arm with the higher response rates to be recommended only if its activity rate is greater by a clinically-relevant value. The operating characteristics are explored via a simulation study and compared to a Bayesian Selection approach. Simulations showed that with the proposed SSD, it is possible to retain the sample size as required in SWE and obtain similar probabilities of selecting the correct superior arm of at least 90%; with the additional attractive benefit of reducing the probability of selecting ineffective arms. This approach is comparable to a Bayesian Selection Strategy. The Modified SSD performs substantially better than the other designs in selecting neither arm if the underlying rates for both arms are desirable but equivalent, allowing for other factors to be considered in the decision making process. Though its probability of correctly selecting a superior arm might be reduced, it still performs reasonably well. It also reduces the probability of selecting an inferior arm. SSD provides an easy to implement randomised Phase II design that selects the most promising treatment that has shown sufficient evidence of activity, with available R codes to evaluate its operating characteristics.

A potential approach for low flow selection in water resource supply and management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ouyang, Ying

2012-08-01

SummaryLow flow selections are essential to water resource management, water supply planning, and watershed ecosystem restoration. In this study, a new approach, namely the frequent-low (FL) approach (or frequent-low index), was developed based on the minimum frequent-low flow or level used in minimum flows and/or levels program in northeast Florida, USA. This FL approach was then compared to the conventional 7Q10 approach for low flow selections prior to its applications, using the USGS flow data from the freshwater environment (Big Sunflower River, Mississippi) as well as from the estuarine environment (St. Johns River, Florida). Unlike the FL approach that is associated with the biological and ecological impacts, the 7Q10 approach could lead to the selections of extremely low flows (e.g., near-zero flows) that may hinder its use for establishing criteria to prevent streams from significant harm to biological and ecological communities. Additionally, the 7Q10 approach could not be used when the period of data records is less than 10 years by definition while this may not the case for the FL approach. Results from both approaches showed that the low flows from the Big Sunflower River and the St. Johns River decreased as time elapsed, demonstrating that these two rivers have become drier during the last several decades with a potential of salted water intrusion to the St. Johns River. Results from the FL approach further revealed that the recurrence probability of low flow increased while the recurrence interval of low flow decreased as time elapsed in both rivers, indicating that low flows occurred more frequent in these rivers as time elapsed. This report suggests that the FL approach, developed in this study, is a useful alternative for low flow selections in addition to the 7Q10 approach.

Water shortage risk assessment considering large-scale regional transfers: a copula-based uncertainty case study in Lunan, China.

PubMed

Gao, Xueping; Liu, Yinzhu; Sun, Bowen

2018-06-05

The risk of water shortage caused by uncertainties, such as frequent drought, varied precipitation, multiple water resources, and different water demands, brings new challenges to the water transfer projects. Uncertainties exist for transferring water and local surface water; therefore, the relationship between them should be thoroughly studied to prevent water shortage. For more effective water management, an uncertainty-based water shortage risk assessment model (UWSRAM) is developed to study the combined effect of multiple water resources and analyze the shortage degree under uncertainty. The UWSRAM combines copula-based Monte Carlo stochastic simulation and the chance-constrained programming-stochastic multiobjective optimization model, using the Lunan water-receiving area in China as an example. Statistical copula functions are employed to estimate the joint probability of available transferring water and local surface water and sampling from the multivariate probability distribution, which are used as inputs for the optimization model. The approach reveals the distribution of water shortage and is able to emphasize the importance of improving and updating transferring water and local surface water management, and examine their combined influence on water shortage risk assessment. The possible available water and shortages can be calculated applying the UWSRAM, also with the corresponding allocation measures under different water availability levels and violating probabilities. The UWSRAM is valuable for mastering the overall multi-water resource and water shortage degree, adapting to the uncertainty surrounding water resources, establishing effective water resource planning policies for managers and achieving sustainable development.

Univariate Probability Distributions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Leemis, Lawrence M.; Luckett, Daniel J.; Powell, Austin G.; Vermeer, Peter E.

2012-01-01

We describe a web-based interactive graphic that can be used as a resource in introductory classes in mathematical statistics. This interactive graphic presents 76 common univariate distributions and gives details on (a) various features of the distribution such as the functional form of the probability density function and cumulative distribution…

Optimizing selection of training and auxiliary data for operational land cover classification for the LCMAP initiative

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Zhe; Gallant, Alisa L.; Woodcock, Curtis E.; Pengra, Bruce; Olofsson, Pontus; Loveland, Thomas R.; Jin, Suming; Dahal, Devendra; Yang, Limin; Auch, Roger F.

2016-12-01

The U.S. Geological Survey's Land Change Monitoring, Assessment, and Projection (LCMAP) initiative is a new end-to-end capability to continuously track and characterize changes in land cover, use, and condition to better support research and applications relevant to resource management and environmental change. Among the LCMAP product suite are annual land cover maps that will be available to the public. This paper describes an approach to optimize the selection of training and auxiliary data for deriving the thematic land cover maps based on all available clear observations from Landsats 4-8. Training data were selected from map products of the U.S. Geological Survey's Land Cover Trends project. The Random Forest classifier was applied for different classification scenarios based on the Continuous Change Detection and Classification (CCDC) algorithm. We found that extracting training data proportionally to the occurrence of land cover classes was superior to an equal distribution of training data per class, and suggest using a total of 20,000 training pixels to classify an area about the size of a Landsat scene. The problem of unbalanced training data was alleviated by extracting a minimum of 600 training pixels and a maximum of 8000 training pixels per class. We additionally explored removing outliers contained within the training data based on their spectral and spatial criteria, but observed no significant improvement in classification results. We also tested the importance of different types of auxiliary data that were available for the conterminous United States, including: (a) five variables used by the National Land Cover Database, (b) three variables from the cloud screening "Function of mask" (Fmask) statistics, and (c) two variables from the change detection results of CCDC. We found that auxiliary variables such as a Digital Elevation Model and its derivatives (aspect, position index, and slope), potential wetland index, water probability, snow probability, and cloud probability improved the accuracy of land cover classification. Compared to the original strategy of the CCDC algorithm (500 pixels per class), the use of the optimal strategy improved the classification accuracies substantially (15-percentage point increase in overall accuracy and 4-percentage point increase in minimum accuracy).

Anterior cingulate activation is related to a positivity bias and emotional stability in successful aging.

PubMed

Brassen, Stefanie; Gamer, Matthias; Büchel, Christian

2011-07-15

Behavioral studies consistently reported an increased preference for positive experiences in older adults. The socio-emotional selectivity theory explains this positivity effect with a motivated goal shift in emotion regulation, which probably depends on available cognitive resources. The present study investigates the neurobiological mechanism underlying this hypothesis. Functional magnetic resonance imaging data were acquired in 21 older and 22 young subjects while performing a spatial-cueing paradigm that manipulates attentional load on emotional face distracters. We focused our analyses on the anterior cingulate cortex as a key structure of cognitive control of emotion. Elderly subjects showed a specifically increased distractibility by happy faces when more attentional resources were available for face processing. This effect was paralleled by an increased engagement of the rostral anterior cingulate cortex, and this frontal engagement was significantly correlated with emotional stability. The current study highlights how the brain might mediate the tendency to preferentially engage in positive information processing in healthy aging. The finding of a resource-dependency of this positivity effect suggests demanding self-regulating processes that are related to emotional well-being. These findings are of particular relevance regarding implications for the understanding, treatment, and prevention of nonsuccessful aging like highly prevalent late-life depression. Copyright © 2011 Society of Biological Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The WRKY Transcription Factor Genes in Eggplant (Solanum melongena L.) and Turkey Berry (Solanum torvum Sw.)

PubMed Central

Yang, Xu; Deng, Cao; Zhang, Yu; Cheng, Yufu; Huo, Qiuyue; Xue, Linbao

2015-01-01

WRKY transcription factors, which play critical roles in stress responses, have not been characterized in eggplant or its wild relative, turkey berry. The recent availability of RNA-sequencing data provides the opportunity to examine WRKY genes from a global perspective. We identified 50 and 62 WRKY genes in eggplant (SmelWRKYs) and turkey berry (StorWRKYs), respectively, all of which could be classified into three groups (I–III) based on the WRKY protein structure. The SmelWRKYs and StorWRKYs contain ~76% and ~95% of the number of WRKYs found in other sequenced asterid species, respectively. Positive selection analysis revealed that different selection constraints could have affected the evolution of these groups. Positively-selected sites were found in Groups IIc and III. Branch-specific selection pressure analysis indicated that most WRKY domains from SmelWRKYs and StorWRKYs are conserved and have evolved at low rates since their divergence. Comparison to homologous WRKY genes in Arabidopsis revealed several potential pathogen resistance-related SmelWRKYs and StorWRKYs, providing possible candidate genetic resources for improving stress tolerance in eggplant and probably other Solanaceae plants. To our knowledge, this is the first report of a genome-wide analyses of the SmelWRKYs and StorWRKYs. PMID:25853261

The WRKY transcription factor genes in eggplant (Solanum melongena L.) and Turkey Berry (Solanum torvum Sw.).

PubMed

Yang, Xu; Deng, Cao; Zhang, Yu; Cheng, Yufu; Huo, Qiuyue; Xue, Linbao

2015-04-07

WRKY transcription factors, which play critical roles in stress responses, have not been characterized in eggplant or its wild relative, turkey berry. The recent availability of RNA-sequencing data provides the opportunity to examine WRKY genes from a global perspective. We identified 50 and 62 WRKY genes in eggplant (SmelWRKYs) and turkey berry (StorWRKYs), respectively, all of which could be classified into three groups (I-III) based on the WRKY protein structure. The SmelWRKYs and StorWRKYs contain ~76% and ~95% of the number of WRKYs found in other sequenced asterid species, respectively. Positive selection analysis revealed that different selection constraints could have affected the evolution of these groups. Positively-selected sites were found in Groups IIc and III. Branch-specific selection pressure analysis indicated that most WRKY domains from SmelWRKYs and StorWRKYs are conserved and have evolved at low rates since their divergence. Comparison to homologous WRKY genes in Arabidopsis revealed several potential pathogen resistance-related SmelWRKYs and StorWRKYs, providing possible candidate genetic resources for improving stress tolerance in eggplant and probably other Solanaceae plants. To our knowledge, this is the first report of a genome-wide analyses of the SmelWRKYs and StorWRKYs.

Landslide Hazard from Coupled Inherent and Dynamic Probabilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strauch, R. L.; Istanbulluoglu, E.; Nudurupati, S. S.

2015-12-01

Landslide hazard research has typically been conducted independently from hydroclimate research. We sought to unify these two lines of research to provide regional scale landslide hazard information for risk assessments and resource management decision-making. Our approach couples an empirical inherent landslide probability, based on a frequency ratio analysis, with a numerical dynamic probability, generated by combining subsurface water recharge and surface runoff from the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macro-scale land surface hydrologic model with a finer resolution probabilistic slope stability model. Landslide hazard mapping is advanced by combining static and dynamic models of stability into a probabilistic measure of geohazard prediction in both space and time. This work will aid resource management decision-making in current and future landscape and climatic conditions. The approach is applied as a case study in North Cascade National Park Complex in northern Washington State.

Probability-based estimates of site-specific copper water quality criteria for the Chesapeake Bay, USA.

PubMed

Arnold, W Ray; Warren-Hicks, William J

2007-01-01

The object of this study was to estimate site- and region-specific dissolved copper criteria for a large embayment, the Chesapeake Bay, USA. The intent is to show the utility of 2 copper saltwater quality site-specific criteria estimation models and associated region-specific criteria selection methods. The criteria estimation models and selection methods are simple, efficient, and cost-effective tools for resource managers. The methods are proposed as potential substitutes for the US Environmental Protection Agency's water effect ratio methods. Dissolved organic carbon data and the copper criteria models were used to produce probability-based estimates of site-specific copper saltwater quality criteria. Site- and date-specific criteria estimations were made for 88 sites (n = 5,296) in the Chesapeake Bay. The average and range of estimated site-specific chronic dissolved copper criteria for the Chesapeake Bay were 7.5 and 5.3 to 16.9 microg Cu/L. The average and range of estimated site-specific acute dissolved copper criteria for the Chesapeake Bay were 11.7 and 8.3 to 26.4 microg Cu/L. The results suggest that applicable national and state copper criteria can increase in much of the Chesapeake Bay and remain protective. Virginia Department of Environmental Quality copper criteria near the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay, however, need to decrease to protect species of equal or greater sensitivity to that of the marine mussel, Mytilus sp.

Accounting for animal movement in estimation of resource selection functions: sampling and data analysis.

PubMed

Forester, James D; Im, Hae Kyung; Rathouz, Paul J

2009-12-01

Patterns of resource selection by animal populations emerge as a result of the behavior of many individuals. Statistical models that describe these population-level patterns of habitat use can miss important interactions between individual animals and characteristics of their local environment; however, identifying these interactions is difficult. One approach to this problem is to incorporate models of individual movement into resource selection models. To do this, we propose a model for step selection functions (SSF) that is composed of a resource-independent movement kernel and a resource selection function (RSF). We show that standard case-control logistic regression may be used to fit the SSF; however, the sampling scheme used to generate control points (i.e., the definition of availability) must be accommodated. We used three sampling schemes to analyze simulated movement data and found that ignoring sampling and the resource-independent movement kernel yielded biased estimates of selection. The level of bias depended on the method used to generate control locations, the strength of selection, and the spatial scale of the resource map. Using empirical or parametric methods to sample control locations produced biased estimates under stronger selection; however, we show that the addition of a distance function to the analysis substantially reduced that bias. Assuming a uniform availability within a fixed buffer yielded strongly biased selection estimates that could be corrected by including the distance function but remained inefficient relative to the empirical and parametric sampling methods. As a case study, we used location data collected from elk in Yellowstone National Park, USA, to show that selection and bias may be temporally variable. Because under constant selection the amount of bias depends on the scale at which a resource is distributed in the landscape, we suggest that distance always be included as a covariate in SSF analyses. This approach to modeling resource selection is easily implemented using common statistical tools and promises to provide deeper insight into the movement ecology of animals.

Reinforcement Probability Modulates Temporal Memory Selection and Integration Processes

PubMed Central

Matell, Matthew S.; Kurti, Allison N.

2013-01-01

We have previously shown that rats trained in a mixed-interval peak procedure (tone = 4s, light = 12s) respond in a scalar manner at a time in between the trained peak times when presented with the stimulus compound (Swanton & Matell, 2011). In our previous work, the two component cues were reinforced with different probabilities (short = 20%, long = 80%) to equate response rates, and we found that the compound peak time was biased toward the cue with the higher reinforcement probability. Here, we examined the influence that different reinforcement probabilities have on the temporal location and shape of the compound response function. We found that the time of peak responding shifted as a function of the relative reinforcement probability of the component cues, becoming earlier as the relative likelihood of reinforcement associated with the short cue increased. However, as the relative probabilities of the component cues grew dissimilar, the compound peak became non-scalar, suggesting that the temporal control of behavior shifted from a process of integration to one of selection. As our previous work has utilized durations and reinforcement probabilities more discrepant than those used here, these data suggest that the processes underlying the integration/selection decision for time are based on cue value. PMID:23896560

Naval facility energy conversion plants as resource recovery system components

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Capps, A. G.

1980-01-01

This interim report addresses concepts for recovering energy from solid waste by using Naval facilities steam plants as principle building blocks of candidate solid waste/resource recovery systems at Navy installations. The major conclusions of this portion of the project are: although it is technically feasible to adapt Navy energy conversion systems to fire Waste Derived Fuels (WDF) in one or more of its forms, the optimal form selected should be a site-specific total system; near- to intermediate-term programs should probably continue to give first consideration to waterwall incinerators and to the cofiring of solid WDF in coal-capable plants; package incinerators and conversions of oil burning plants to fire a fluff form of solid waste fuel may be the options with the greatest potential for the intermediate term because waterwalls would be uneconomical in many small plants and because the majority of medium-sized oil-burning plants will not be converted to burn coal; and pyrolytic processes to produce gaseous and liquid fuels have not been sufficiently developed as yet to be specified for commerical operation.

A Study of Strengthening Secondary Mathematics Teachers' Knowledge of Statistics and Probability via Professional Development

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

DeVaul, Lina

2017-01-01

A professional development program (PSPD) was implemented to improve in-service secondary mathematics teachers' content knowledge, pedagogical knowledge, and self-efficacy in teaching secondary school statistics and probability. Participants generated a teaching resource website at the conclusion of the PSPD program. Participants' content…

Performance evaluation of data center service localization based on virtual resource migration in software defined elastic optical network.

PubMed

Yang, Hui; Zhang, Jie; Ji, Yuefeng; Tan, Yuanlong; Lin, Yi; Han, Jianrui; Lee, Young

2015-09-07

Data center interconnection with elastic optical network is a promising scenario to meet the high burstiness and high-bandwidth requirements of data center services. In our previous work, we implemented cross stratum optimization of optical network and application stratums resources that allows to accommodate data center services. In view of this, this study extends the data center resources to user side to enhance the end-to-end quality of service. We propose a novel data center service localization (DCSL) architecture based on virtual resource migration in software defined elastic data center optical network. A migration evaluation scheme (MES) is introduced for DCSL based on the proposed architecture. The DCSL can enhance the responsiveness to the dynamic end-to-end data center demands, and effectively reduce the blocking probability to globally optimize optical network and application resources. The overall feasibility and efficiency of the proposed architecture are experimentally verified on the control plane of our OpenFlow-based enhanced SDN testbed. The performance of MES scheme under heavy traffic load scenario is also quantitatively evaluated based on DCSL architecture in terms of path blocking probability, provisioning latency and resource utilization, compared with other provisioning scheme.

Edge Effects in Line Intersect Sampling With

Treesearch

David L. R. Affleck; Timothy G. Gregoire; Harry T. Valentine

2005-01-01

Transects consisting of multiple, connected segments with a prescribed configuration are commonly used in ecological applications of line intersect sampling. The transect configuration has implications for the probability with which population elements are selected and for how the selection probabilities can be modified by the boundary of the tract being sampled. As...

Trends in the development of industrially assimilated renewable energy: the problem of resource restrictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nizhegorodtsev, R. M.; Ratner, S. V.

2016-03-01

An analysis of the dynamics of the development of wind and solar energy and potential resource restrictions of the dissemination of these technologies of energy generation associated with intensive use of rare earth metals and some other mineral resources are presented. The technological prospects of various directions of decisions of the problem of resource restrictions, including escalating of volumes of extraction and production of necessary mineral components, creating substitutes of scarce materials and development of recycling are considered. The bottlenecks of each of the above-mentioned decisions were founded. Conclusions are drawn on the prospects of development of the Russian high-tech sectors of the economy in the context of the most probable decisions of the problem of resource restrictions of wind and solar energy. An increase in extraction and production of rare earth metals and some other materials, stimulation of domestic research and development (R&D) to create the permanent magnets of new types and new technologies of wind-powered generation, and reduction of the resource-demand and technology development of recycling the components of power equipment are the most prospective directions of progress. The innovations in these directions will be in demand on the European, Chinese, and North American markets in the near decades due to the end of the life cycle (approximately 30 years) of wind and solar energy projects started at the turn of the 20th-21st centuries (the beginning of exponential growth in plants). The private investors and relevant regional and federal government agencies can use the qualitative characteristics of the dynamics of industrially assimilated renewable energy to choose the most promising investment orientations in energy projects and selection of the most economically sound development methods of energy and related industries.

Seeing the talker's face supports executive processing of speech in steady state noise.

PubMed

Mishra, Sushmit; Lunner, Thomas; Stenfelt, Stefan; Rönnberg, Jerker; Rudner, Mary

2013-01-01

Listening to speech in noise depletes cognitive resources, affecting speech processing. The present study investigated how remaining resources or cognitive spare capacity (CSC) can be deployed by young adults with normal hearing. We administered a test of CSC (CSCT; Mishra et al., 2013) along with a battery of established cognitive tests to 20 participants with normal hearing. In the CSCT, lists of two-digit numbers were presented with and without visual cues in quiet, as well as in steady-state and speech-like noise at a high intelligibility level. In low load conditions, two numbers were recalled according to instructions inducing executive processing (updating, inhibition) and in high load conditions the participants were additionally instructed to recall one extra number, which was the always the first item in the list. In line with previous findings, results showed that CSC was sensitive to memory load and executive function but generally not related to working memory capacity (WMC). Furthermore, CSCT scores in quiet were lowered by visual cues, probably due to distraction. In steady-state noise, the presence of visual cues improved CSCT scores, probably by enabling better encoding. Contrary to our expectation, CSCT performance was disrupted more in steady-state than speech-like noise, although only without visual cues, possibly because selective attention could be used to ignore the speech-like background and provide an enriched representation of target items in working memory similar to that obtained in quiet. This interpretation is supported by a consistent association between CSCT scores and updating skills.

Combinatorial Optimization in Project Selection Using Genetic Algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dewi, Sari; Sawaluddin

2018-01-01

This paper discusses the problem of project selection in the presence of two objective functions that maximize profit and minimize cost and the existence of some limitations is limited resources availability and time available so that there is need allocation of resources in each project. These resources are human resources, machine resources, raw material resources. This is treated as a consideration to not exceed the budget that has been determined. So that can be formulated mathematics for objective function (multi-objective) with boundaries that fulfilled. To assist the project selection process, a multi-objective combinatorial optimization approach is used to obtain an optimal solution for the selection of the right project. It then described a multi-objective method of genetic algorithm as one method of multi-objective combinatorial optimization approach to simplify the project selection process in a large scope.

Accelerating rejection-based simulation of biochemical reactions with bounded acceptance probability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thanh, Vo Hong; Priami, Corrado; Zunino, Roberto

2016-06-01

Stochastic simulation of large biochemical reaction networks is often computationally expensive due to the disparate reaction rates and high variability of population of chemical species. An approach to accelerate the simulation is to allow multiple reaction firings before performing update by assuming that reaction propensities are changing of a negligible amount during a time interval. Species with small population in the firings of fast reactions significantly affect both performance and accuracy of this simulation approach. It is even worse when these small population species are involved in a large number of reactions. We present in this paper a new approximate algorithm to cope with this problem. It is based on bounding the acceptance probability of a reaction selected by the exact rejection-based simulation algorithm, which employs propensity bounds of reactions and the rejection-based mechanism to select next reaction firings. The reaction is ensured to be selected to fire with an acceptance rate greater than a predefined probability in which the selection becomes exact if the probability is set to one. Our new algorithm improves the computational cost for selecting the next reaction firing and reduces the updating the propensities of reactions.

Accelerating rejection-based simulation of biochemical reactions with bounded acceptance probability

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Thanh, Vo Hong, E-mail: vo@cosbi.eu; Priami, Corrado, E-mail: priami@cosbi.eu; Department of Mathematics, University of Trento, Trento

Stochastic simulation of large biochemical reaction networks is often computationally expensive due to the disparate reaction rates and high variability of population of chemical species. An approach to accelerate the simulation is to allow multiple reaction firings before performing update by assuming that reaction propensities are changing of a negligible amount during a time interval. Species with small population in the firings of fast reactions significantly affect both performance and accuracy of this simulation approach. It is even worse when these small population species are involved in a large number of reactions. We present in this paper a new approximatemore » algorithm to cope with this problem. It is based on bounding the acceptance probability of a reaction selected by the exact rejection-based simulation algorithm, which employs propensity bounds of reactions and the rejection-based mechanism to select next reaction firings. The reaction is ensured to be selected to fire with an acceptance rate greater than a predefined probability in which the selection becomes exact if the probability is set to one. Our new algorithm improves the computational cost for selecting the next reaction firing and reduces the updating the propensities of reactions.« less

The Integrated Medical Model: A Probabilistic Simulation Model for Predicting In-Flight Medical Risks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Keenan, Alexandra; Young, Millennia; Saile, Lynn; Boley, Lynn; Walton, Marlei; Kerstman, Eric; Shah, Ronak; Goodenow, Debra A.; Myers, Jerry G.

2015-01-01

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a probabilistic model that uses simulation to predict mission medical risk. Given a specific mission and crew scenario, medical events are simulated using Monte Carlo methodology to provide estimates of resource utilization, probability of evacuation, probability of loss of crew, and the amount of mission time lost due to illness. Mission and crew scenarios are defined by mission length, extravehicular activity (EVA) schedule, and crew characteristics including: sex, coronary artery calcium score, contacts, dental crowns, history of abdominal surgery, and EVA eligibility. The Integrated Medical Evidence Database (iMED) houses the model inputs for one hundred medical conditions using in-flight, analog, and terrestrial medical data. Inputs include incidence, event durations, resource utilization, and crew functional impairment. Severity of conditions is addressed by defining statistical distributions on the dichotomized best and worst-case scenarios for each condition. The outcome distributions for conditions are bounded by the treatment extremes of the fully treated scenario in which all required resources are available and the untreated scenario in which no required resources are available. Upon occurrence of a simulated medical event, treatment availability is assessed, and outcomes are generated depending on the status of the affected crewmember at the time of onset, including any pre-existing functional impairments or ongoing treatment of concurrent conditions. The main IMM outcomes, including probability of evacuation and loss of crew life, time lost due to medical events, and resource utilization, are useful in informing mission planning decisions. To date, the IMM has been used to assess mission-specific risks with and without certain crewmember characteristics, to determine the impact of eliminating certain resources from the mission medical kit, and to design medical kits that maximally benefit crew health while meeting mass and volume constraints.

The Integrated Medical Model: A Probabilistic Simulation Model Predicting In-Flight Medical Risks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Keenan, Alexandra; Young, Millennia; Saile, Lynn; Boley, Lynn; Walton, Marlei; Kerstman, Eric; Shah, Ronak; Goodenow, Debra A.; Myers, Jerry G., Jr.

2015-01-01

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a probabilistic model that uses simulation to predict mission medical risk. Given a specific mission and crew scenario, medical events are simulated using Monte Carlo methodology to provide estimates of resource utilization, probability of evacuation, probability of loss of crew, and the amount of mission time lost due to illness. Mission and crew scenarios are defined by mission length, extravehicular activity (EVA) schedule, and crew characteristics including: sex, coronary artery calcium score, contacts, dental crowns, history of abdominal surgery, and EVA eligibility. The Integrated Medical Evidence Database (iMED) houses the model inputs for one hundred medical conditions using in-flight, analog, and terrestrial medical data. Inputs include incidence, event durations, resource utilization, and crew functional impairment. Severity of conditions is addressed by defining statistical distributions on the dichotomized best and worst-case scenarios for each condition. The outcome distributions for conditions are bounded by the treatment extremes of the fully treated scenario in which all required resources are available and the untreated scenario in which no required resources are available. Upon occurrence of a simulated medical event, treatment availability is assessed, and outcomes are generated depending on the status of the affected crewmember at the time of onset, including any pre-existing functional impairments or ongoing treatment of concurrent conditions. The main IMM outcomes, including probability of evacuation and loss of crew life, time lost due to medical events, and resource utilization, are useful in informing mission planning decisions. To date, the IMM has been used to assess mission-specific risks with and without certain crewmember characteristics, to determine the impact of eliminating certain resources from the mission medical kit, and to design medical kits that maximally benefit crew health while meeting mass and volume constraints.

Resource selection for foraging by female Merriam's wild turkeys with poults in the southern Black Hills, South Dakota

Treesearch

Chad P. Lehman; Mark A. Rumble; Lester D. Flake; Daniel J. Thompson

2011-01-01

Knowledge of Merriam's wild turkey (Meleagris gallopavo merriami) resource selection in the context of landscape attributes is an important asset for managing resources on multiple-use public lands. We investigated resource selection for foraging by Merriam's wild turkey broods in the southern Black Hills, South Dakota. We collected macro- and microhabitat...

Stochastic population dynamics under resource constraints

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gavane, Ajinkya S., E-mail: ajinkyagavane@gmail.com; Nigam, Rahul, E-mail: rahul.nigam@hyderabad.bits-pilani.ac.in

This paper investigates the population growth of a certain species in which every generation reproduces thrice over a period of predefined time, under certain constraints of resources needed for survival of population. We study the survival period of a species by randomizing the reproduction probabilities within a window at same predefined ages and the resources are being produced by the working force of the population at a variable rate. This randomness in the reproduction rate makes the population growth stochastic in nature and one cannot predict the exact form of evolution. Hence we study the growth by running simulations formore » such a population and taking an ensemble averaged over 500 to 5000 such simulations as per the need. While the population reproduces in a stochastic manner, we have implemented a constraint on the amount of resources available for the population. This is important to make the simulations more realistic. The rate of resource production then is tuned to find the rate which suits the survival of the species. We also compute the mean life time of the species corresponding to different resource production rate. Study for these outcomes in the parameter space defined by the reproduction probabilities and rate of resource production is carried out.« less

Resolving structural uncertainty in natural resources management using POMDP approaches

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams, B.K.

2011-01-01

In recent years there has been a growing focus on the uncertainties of natural resources management, and the importance of accounting for uncertainty in assessing management effectiveness. This paper focuses on uncertainty in resource management in terms of discrete-state Markov decision processes (MDP) under structural uncertainty and partial observability. It describes the treatment of structural uncertainty with approaches developed for partially observable resource systems. In particular, I show how value iteration for partially observable MDPs (POMDP) can be extended to structurally uncertain MDPs. A key difference between these process classes is that structurally uncertain MDPs require the tracking of system state as well as a probability structure for the structure uncertainty, whereas with POMDPs require only a probability structure for the observation uncertainty. The added complexity of the optimization problem under structural uncertainty is compensated by reduced dimensionality in the search for optimal strategy. A solution algorithm for structurally uncertain processes is outlined for a simple example in conservation biology. By building on the conceptual framework developed for POMDPs, natural resource analysts and decision makers who confront structural uncertainties in natural resources can take advantage of the rapid growth in POMDP methods and approaches, and thereby produce better conservation strategies over a larger class of resource problems. ?? 2011.

Warship Combat System Selection Methodology Based on Discrete Event Simulation

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-09-01

Platform (from Spanish) PD Damage Probability xiv PHit Hit Probability PKill Kill Probability RSM Response Surface Model SAM Surface-Air Missile...such a large target allows an assumption that the probability of a hit ( PHit ) is one. This structure can be considered as a bridge; therefore, the

Variation in resource limitation of plant reproduction influences natural selection on floral traits of Asclepias syriaca.

PubMed

Caruso, Christina M; Remington, Davin L D; Ostergren, Kate E

2005-11-01

The availability of both pollen and resources can influence natural selection on floral traits, but their relative importance in shaping floral evolution is unclear. We experimentally manipulated pollinator and resource (fertilizer and water) availability in the perennial wildflower Asclepias syriaca L. Nine floral traits, one male fitness component (number of pollinia removed), and two female fitness components (number of pollinia inserted and number of fruits initiated) were measured for plants in each of three treatments (unmanipulated control, decreased pollinator access, and resource supplementation). Although decreasing pollinators' access to flowers did result in fewer pollinia inserted and removed, fruit set and phenotypic selection on floral traits via female and male fitness did not differ from the control. In contrast, resource supplementation increased fruit set, and phenotypic selection on seven out of nine floral traits was stronger via female than male fitness, consistent with the prediction that selection via female fitness would be greater when reproduction was less resource-limited. Our results support the hypothesis that abiotic resource availability can influence floral evolution by altering gender-specific selection.

Risk-based water resources planning: Incorporating probabilistic nonstationary climate uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borgomeo, Edoardo; Hall, Jim W.; Fung, Fai; Watts, Glenn; Colquhoun, Keith; Lambert, Chris

2014-08-01

We present a risk-based approach for incorporating nonstationary probabilistic climate projections into long-term water resources planning. The proposed methodology uses nonstationary synthetic time series of future climates obtained via a stochastic weather generator based on the UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) to construct a probability distribution of the frequency of water shortages in the future. The UKCP09 projections extend well beyond the range of current hydrological variability, providing the basis for testing the robustness of water resources management plans to future climate-related uncertainties. The nonstationary nature of the projections combined with the stochastic simulation approach allows for extensive sampling of climatic variability conditioned on climate model outputs. The probability of exceeding planned frequencies of water shortages of varying severity (defined as Levels of Service for the water supply utility company) is used as a risk metric for water resources planning. Different sources of uncertainty, including demand-side uncertainties, are considered simultaneously and their impact on the risk metric is evaluated. Supply-side and demand-side management strategies can be compared based on how cost-effective they are at reducing risks to acceptable levels. A case study based on a water supply system in London (UK) is presented to illustrate the methodology. Results indicate an increase in the probability of exceeding the planned Levels of Service across the planning horizon. Under a 1% per annum population growth scenario, the probability of exceeding the planned Levels of Service is as high as 0.5 by 2040. The case study also illustrates how a combination of supply and demand management options may be required to reduce the risk of water shortages.

Probability Distributome: A Web Computational Infrastructure for Exploring the Properties, Interrelations, and Applications of Probability Distributions.

PubMed

Dinov, Ivo D; Siegrist, Kyle; Pearl, Dennis K; Kalinin, Alexandr; Christou, Nicolas

2016-06-01

Probability distributions are useful for modeling, simulation, analysis, and inference on varieties of natural processes and physical phenomena. There are uncountably many probability distributions. However, a few dozen families of distributions are commonly defined and are frequently used in practice for problem solving, experimental applications, and theoretical studies. In this paper, we present a new computational and graphical infrastructure, the Distributome , which facilitates the discovery, exploration and application of diverse spectra of probability distributions. The extensible Distributome infrastructure provides interfaces for (human and machine) traversal, search, and navigation of all common probability distributions. It also enables distribution modeling, applications, investigation of inter-distribution relations, as well as their analytical representations and computational utilization. The entire Distributome framework is designed and implemented as an open-source, community-built, and Internet-accessible infrastructure. It is portable, extensible and compatible with HTML5 and Web2.0 standards (http://Distributome.org). We demonstrate two types of applications of the probability Distributome resources: computational research and science education. The Distributome tools may be employed to address five complementary computational modeling applications (simulation, data-analysis and inference, model-fitting, examination of the analytical, mathematical and computational properties of specific probability distributions, and exploration of the inter-distributional relations). Many high school and college science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) courses may be enriched by the use of modern pedagogical approaches and technology-enhanced methods. The Distributome resources provide enhancements for blended STEM education by improving student motivation, augmenting the classical curriculum with interactive webapps, and overhauling the learning assessment protocols.

Probability Distributome: A Web Computational Infrastructure for Exploring the Properties, Interrelations, and Applications of Probability Distributions

PubMed Central

Dinov, Ivo D.; Siegrist, Kyle; Pearl, Dennis K.; Kalinin, Alexandr; Christou, Nicolas

2015-01-01

Probability distributions are useful for modeling, simulation, analysis, and inference on varieties of natural processes and physical phenomena. There are uncountably many probability distributions. However, a few dozen families of distributions are commonly defined and are frequently used in practice for problem solving, experimental applications, and theoretical studies. In this paper, we present a new computational and graphical infrastructure, the Distributome, which facilitates the discovery, exploration and application of diverse spectra of probability distributions. The extensible Distributome infrastructure provides interfaces for (human and machine) traversal, search, and navigation of all common probability distributions. It also enables distribution modeling, applications, investigation of inter-distribution relations, as well as their analytical representations and computational utilization. The entire Distributome framework is designed and implemented as an open-source, community-built, and Internet-accessible infrastructure. It is portable, extensible and compatible with HTML5 and Web2.0 standards (http://Distributome.org). We demonstrate two types of applications of the probability Distributome resources: computational research and science education. The Distributome tools may be employed to address five complementary computational modeling applications (simulation, data-analysis and inference, model-fitting, examination of the analytical, mathematical and computational properties of specific probability distributions, and exploration of the inter-distributional relations). Many high school and college science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) courses may be enriched by the use of modern pedagogical approaches and technology-enhanced methods. The Distributome resources provide enhancements for blended STEM education by improving student motivation, augmenting the classical curriculum with interactive webapps, and overhauling the learning assessment protocols. PMID:27158191

Survival and selection of migrating salmon from capture-recapture models with individual traits

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zabel, R.W.; Wagner, T.; Congleton, J.L.; Smith, S.G.; Williams, J.G.

2005-01-01

Capture-recapture studies are powerful tools for studying animal population dynamics, providing information on population abundance, survival rates, population growth rates, and selection for phenotypic traits. In these studies, the probability of observing a tagged individual reflects both the probability of the individual surviving to the time of recapture and the probability of recapturing an animal, given that it is alive. If both of these probabilities are related to the same phenotypic trait, it can be difficult to distinguish effects on survival probabilities from effects on recapture probabilities. However, when animals are individually tagged and have multiple opportunities for recapture, we can properly partition observed trait-related variability into survival and recapture components. We present an overview of capture-recapture models that incorporate individual variability and develop methods to incorporate results from these models into estimates of population survival and selection for phenotypic traits. We conducted a series of simulations to understand the performance of these estimators and to assess the consequences of ignoring individual variability when it exists. In addition, we analyzed a large data set of > 153 000 juvenile chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and steelhead (O. mykiss) of known length that were PIT-tagged during their seaward migration. Both our simulations and the case study indicated that the ability to precisely estimate selection for phenotypic traits was greatly compromised when differential recapture probabilities were ignored. Estimates of population survival, however, were far more robust. In the chinook salmon and steelhead study, we consistently found that smaller fish had a greater probability of recapture. We also uncovered length-related survival relationships in over half of the release group/river segment combinations that we observed, but we found both positive and negative relationships between length and survival probability. These results have important implications for the management of salmonid populations. ?? 2005 by the Ecological Society of America.

30 CFR 281.3 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... 30 Mineral Resources 2 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Definitions. 281.3 Section 281.3 Mineral Resources BUREAU OF OCEAN ENERGY MANAGEMENT, REGULATION, AND ENFORCEMENT, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR..., exploration, testing, and mining activities; or (3) In which there is a reasonable probability of significant...

Emotional and neutral scenes in competition: orienting, efficiency, and identification.

PubMed

Calvo, Manuel G; Nummenmaa, Lauri; Hyönä, Jukka

2007-12-01

To investigate preferential processing of emotional scenes competing for limited attentional resources with neutral scenes, prime pictures were presented briefly (450 ms), peripherally (5.2 degrees away from fixation), and simultaneously (one emotional and one neutral scene) versus singly. Primes were followed by a mask and a probe for recognition. Hit rate was higher for emotional than for neutral scenes in the dual- but not in the single-prime condition, and A' sensitivity decreased for neutral but not for emotional scenes in the dual-prime condition. This preferential processing involved both selective orienting and efficient encoding, as revealed, respectively, by a higher probability of first fixation on--and shorter saccade latencies to--emotional scenes and by shorter fixation time needed to accurately identify emotional scenes, in comparison with neutral scenes.

Diversity Order Analysis of Dual-Hop Relaying with Partial Relay Selection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bao, Vo Nguyen Quoc; Kong, Hyung Yun

In this paper, we study the performance of dual hop relaying in which the best relay selected by partial relay selection will help the source-destination link to overcome the channel impairment. Specifically, closed-form expressions for outage probability, symbol error probability and achievable diversity gain are derived using the statistical characteristic of the signal-to-noise ratio. Numerical investigation shows that the system achieves diversity of two regardless of relay number and also confirms the correctness of the analytical results. Furthermore, the performance loss due to partial relay selection is investigated.

NORTH FORK SMITH RIVER ROADLESS AREA, CALIFORNIA AND OREGON.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gray, Floyd; Hamilton, Michael

1984-01-01

Geologic, geochemical, and geophysical investigations and a survey of mines and prospects were conducted to evaluate the mineral-resource potential of the North Fork Smith River Roadless Area, California. The area has probable and sustantiated resource potential for nickel, chromium, copper, and mercury and approximately 2300 mining claims exist in or adjacent to the area. The geologic terrane precludes the occurrence of fossil fuel resources.

Performance Analysis of Cluster Formation in Wireless Sensor Networks.

PubMed

Montiel, Edgar Romo; Rivero-Angeles, Mario E; Rubino, Gerardo; Molina-Lozano, Heron; Menchaca-Mendez, Rolando; Menchaca-Mendez, Ricardo

2017-12-13

Clustered-based wireless sensor networks have been extensively used in the literature in order to achieve considerable energy consumption reductions. However, two aspects of such systems have been largely overlooked. Namely, the transmission probability used during the cluster formation phase and the way in which cluster heads are selected. Both of these issues have an important impact on the performance of the system. For the former, it is common to consider that sensor nodes in a clustered-based Wireless Sensor Network (WSN) use a fixed transmission probability to send control data in order to build the clusters. However, due to the highly variable conditions experienced by these networks, a fixed transmission probability may lead to extra energy consumption. In view of this, three different transmission probability strategies are studied: optimal, fixed and adaptive. In this context, we also investigate cluster head selection schemes, specifically, we consider two intelligent schemes based on the fuzzy C-means and k-medoids algorithms and a random selection with no intelligence. We show that the use of intelligent schemes greatly improves the performance of the system, but their use entails higher complexity and selection delay. The main performance metrics considered in this work are energy consumption, successful transmission probability and cluster formation latency. As an additional feature of this work, we study the effect of errors in the wireless channel and the impact on the performance of the system under the different transmission probability schemes.

Performance Analysis of Cluster Formation in Wireless Sensor Networks

PubMed Central

Montiel, Edgar Romo; Rivero-Angeles, Mario E.; Rubino, Gerardo; Molina-Lozano, Heron; Menchaca-Mendez, Rolando; Menchaca-Mendez, Ricardo

2017-01-01

Clustered-based wireless sensor networks have been extensively used in the literature in order to achieve considerable energy consumption reductions. However, two aspects of such systems have been largely overlooked. Namely, the transmission probability used during the cluster formation phase and the way in which cluster heads are selected. Both of these issues have an important impact on the performance of the system. For the former, it is common to consider that sensor nodes in a clustered-based Wireless Sensor Network (WSN) use a fixed transmission probability to send control data in order to build the clusters. However, due to the highly variable conditions experienced by these networks, a fixed transmission probability may lead to extra energy consumption. In view of this, three different transmission probability strategies are studied: optimal, fixed and adaptive. In this context, we also investigate cluster head selection schemes, specifically, we consider two intelligent schemes based on the fuzzy C-means and k-medoids algorithms and a random selection with no intelligence. We show that the use of intelligent schemes greatly improves the performance of the system, but their use entails higher complexity and selection delay. The main performance metrics considered in this work are energy consumption, successful transmission probability and cluster formation latency. As an additional feature of this work, we study the effect of errors in the wireless channel and the impact on the performance of the system under the different transmission probability schemes. PMID:29236065

SALMON RIVER BREAKS PRIMITIVE AREA AND VICINITY, IDAHO.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kiilsgaard, Thor H.; Tuchek, Ernest T.

1984-01-01

A mineral survey of the Salmon River Breaks Primitive Area and vicinity in Idaho confirmed a substantiated gold resource potential in placer deposits along the Salmon River but determined that large-scale mining of the deposits probably would not be feasible. Except for demonstrated fluorspar resources at the Big Squaw Creek deposit, no other mineral resources were found in the area. The geologic environment, geochemical findings, and geophysical data all suggest little likelihood for the occurrence of additional mineral resources in the area. No energy resources were identified in this study.

Condition of Tidal Wetlands of Washington, Oregon and California - 2002

EPA Science Inventory

The National Coastal Assessment (NCA) of US EPA conducted the first probability based assessment of the condition of estuarine intertidal wetland resources of the West Coast of the U.S. in 2002. The study results constitute a baseline estimate of condition of coastal resources t...

USING GIS TO GENERATE SPATIALLY-BALANCED RANDOM SURVEY DESIGNS FOR NATURAL RESOURCE APPLICATIONS

EPA Science Inventory

Sampling of a population is frequently required to understand trends and patterns in natural resource management because financial and time constraints preclude a complete census. A rigorous probability-based survey design specifies where to sample so that inferences from the sam...

On the evolution of specialization with a mechanistic underpinning in structured metapopulations.

PubMed

Nurmi, Tuomas; Parvinen, Kalle

2008-03-01

We analyze the evolution of specialization in resource utilization in a discrete-time metapopulation model using the adaptive dynamics approach. The local dynamics in the metapopulation are based on the Beverton-Holt model with mechanistic underpinnings. The consumer faces a trade-off in the abilities to consume two resources that are spatially heterogeneously distributed to patches that are prone to local catastrophes. We explore the factors favoring the spread of generalist or specialist strategies. Increasing fecundity or decreasing catastrophe probability favors the spread of the generalist strategy and increasing environmental heterogeneity enlarges the parameter domain where the evolutionary branching is possible. When there are no catastrophes, increasing emigration diminishes the parameter domain where the evolutionary branching may occur. Otherwise, the effect of emigration on evolutionary dynamics is non-monotonous: both small and large values of emigration probability favor the spread of the specialist strategies whereas the parameter domain where evolutionary branching may occur is largest when the emigration probability has intermediate values. We compare how different forms of spatial heterogeneity and different models of local growth affect the evolutionary dynamics. We show that even small changes in the resource dynamics may have outstanding evolutionary effects to the consumers.

Geology and assessment of the undiscovered, technically recoverable petroleum resources of Armenia, 2013

USGS Publications Warehouse

Klett, T.R.

2016-02-23

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) assessed the undiscovered, technically recoverable oil and gas resources of Armenia in 2013. A Paleozoic and a Cenozoic total petroleum system (TPS) were identified within the country of Armenia. The postulated petroleum system elements are uncertain, resulting in low geologic probabilities for significant oil an gas resources. Two assessment units (AU) were delineated in each TPS—a Paleozoic-Sourced Conventional Reservoirs AU and a Permian Shale Gas AU in the Paleozoic Composite TPS and a Paleogene-Sourced Conventional Reservoirs AU and a Cenozoic Coalbed Gas AU in the Cenozoic Composite TPS. The TPS elements are largely uncertain and risked, and so only the Paleogene-Sourced Conventional Reservoirs AU was quantitatively assessed because the geologic probability is more than the threshold of 10 percent (that is, the probability of at least one conventional oil or gas accumulation of 5 million barrels of oil equivalent or greater based on postulated petroleum-system elements). The USGS estimated fully risked mean volumes of about 1 million barrels of oil (MMBO), about 6 billion cubic feet of natural gas (BCFG), and less than 1 million barrels of natural gas liquids (MMBNGL).

Information Resource Selection of Undergraduate Students in Academic Search Tasks

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Jee Yeon; Paik, Woojin; Joo, Soohyung

2012-01-01

Introduction: This study aims to investigate the selection of information sources and to identify factors associated with the resource selection of undergraduate students for academic search tasks. Also, user perceptions of some factors, such as credibility, usefulness, accessibility and familiarity, were examined to classify resources by their…

18 CFR 701.79 - Selection policy for professional personnel.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2012-04-01 2012-04-01 false Selection policy for professional personnel. 701.79 Section 701.79 Conservation of Power and Water Resources WATER RESOURCES COUNCIL COUNCIL ORGANIZATION Headquarters Organization § 701.79 Selection policy for professional personnel. In...

18 CFR 701.79 - Selection policy for professional personnel.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Selection policy for professional personnel. 701.79 Section 701.79 Conservation of Power and Water Resources WATER RESOURCES COUNCIL COUNCIL ORGANIZATION Headquarters Organization § 701.79 Selection policy for professional personnel. In...

18 CFR 701.79 - Selection policy for professional personnel.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Selection policy for professional personnel. 701.79 Section 701.79 Conservation of Power and Water Resources WATER RESOURCES COUNCIL COUNCIL ORGANIZATION Headquarters Organization § 701.79 Selection policy for professional personnel. In...

18 CFR 701.79 - Selection policy for professional personnel.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Selection policy for professional personnel. 701.79 Section 701.79 Conservation of Power and Water Resources WATER RESOURCES COUNCIL COUNCIL ORGANIZATION Headquarters Organization § 701.79 Selection policy for professional personnel. In...

18 CFR 701.79 - Selection policy for professional personnel.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false Selection policy for professional personnel. 701.79 Section 701.79 Conservation of Power and Water Resources WATER RESOURCES COUNCIL COUNCIL ORGANIZATION Headquarters Organization § 701.79 Selection policy for professional personnel. In...

Translation norms for English and Spanish: The role of lexical variables, word class, and L2 proficiency in negotiating translation ambiguity

PubMed Central

Prior, Anat; MacWhinney, Brian; Kroll, Judith F.

2014-01-01

We present a set of translation norms for 670 English and 760 Spanish nouns, verbs and class ambiguous items that varied in their lexical properties in both languages, collected from 80 bilingual participants. Half of the words in each language received more than a single translation across participants. Cue word frequency and imageability were both negatively correlated with number of translations. Word class predicted number of translations: Nouns had fewer translations than did verbs, which had fewer translations than class-ambiguous items. The translation probability of specific responses was positively correlated with target word frequency and imageability, and with its form overlap with the cue word. Translation choice was modulated by L2 proficiency: Less proficient bilinguals tended to produce lower probability translations than more proficient bilinguals, but only in forward translation, from L1 to L2. These findings highlight the importance of translation ambiguity as a factor influencing bilingual representation and performance. The norms can also provide an important resource to assist researchers in the selection of experimental materials for studies of bilingual and monolingual language performance. These norms may be downloaded from www.psychonomic.org/archive. PMID:18183923

How Important Are Student-Selected versus Instructor-Selected Literature Resources for Students' Learning and Motivation in Problem-Based Learning?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wijnia, Lisette; Loyens, Sofie M.; Derous, Eva; Schmidt, Henk G.

2015-01-01

In problem-based learning students are responsible for their own learning process, which becomes evident when they must act independently, for example, when selecting literature resources for individual study. It is a matter of debate whether it is better to have students select their own literature resources or to present them with a list of…

Reconciling resource utilization and resource selection functions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hooten, Mevin B.; Hanks, Ephraim M.; Johnson, Devin S.; Alldredge, Mat W.

2013-01-01

Summary: 1. Analyses based on utilization distributions (UDs) have been ubiquitous in animal space use studies, largely because they are computationally straightforward and relatively easy to employ. Conventional applications of resource utilization functions (RUFs) suggest that estimates of UDs can be used as response variables in a regression involving spatial covariates of interest. 2. It has been claimed that contemporary implementations of RUFs can yield inference about resource selection, although to our knowledge, an explicit connection has not been described. 3. We explore the relationships between RUFs and resource selection functions from a hueristic and simulation perspective. We investigate several sources of potential bias in the estimation of resource selection coefficients using RUFs (e.g. the spatial covariance modelling that is often used in RUF analyses). 4. Our findings illustrate that RUFs can, in fact, serve as approximations to RSFs and are capable of providing inference about resource selection, but only with some modification and under specific circumstances. 5. Using real telemetry data as an example, we provide guidance on which methods for estimating resource selection may be more appropriate and in which situations. In general, if telemetry data are assumed to arise as a point process, then RSF methods may be preferable to RUFs; however, modified RUFs may provide less biased parameter estimates when the data are subject to location error.

Maps showing predicted probabilities for selected dissolved oxygen and dissolved manganese threshold events in depth zones used by the domestic and public drinking water supply wells, Central Valley, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rosecrans, Celia Z.; Nolan, Bernard T.; Gronberg, JoAnn M.

2018-01-31

The purpose of the prediction grids for selected redox constituents—dissolved oxygen and dissolved manganese—are intended to provide an understanding of groundwater-quality conditions at the domestic and public-supply drinking water depths. The chemical quality of groundwater and the fate of many contaminants is influenced by redox processes in all aquifers, and understanding the redox conditions horizontally and vertically is critical in evaluating groundwater quality. The redox condition of groundwater—whether oxic (oxygen present) or anoxic (oxygen absent)—strongly influences the oxidation state of a chemical in groundwater. The anoxic dissolved oxygen thresholds of <0.5 milligram per liter (mg/L), <1.0 mg/L, and <2.0 mg/L were selected to apply broadly to regional groundwater-quality investigations. Although the presence of dissolved manganese in groundwater indicates strongly reducing (anoxic) groundwater conditions, it is also considered a “nuisance” constituent in drinking water, making drinking water undesirable with respect to taste, staining, or scaling. Three dissolved manganese thresholds, <50 micrograms per liter (µg/L), <150 µg/L, and <300 µg/L, were selected to create predicted probabilities of exceedances in depth zones used by domestic and public-supply water wells. The 50 µg/L event threshold represents the secondary maximum contaminant level (SMCL) benchmark for manganese (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2017; California Division of Drinking Water, 2014), whereas the 300 µg/L event threshold represents the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) health-based screening level (HBSL) benchmark, used to put measured concentrations of drinking-water contaminants into a human-health context (Toccalino and others, 2014). The 150 µg/L event threshold represents one-half the USGS HBSL. The resultant dissolved oxygen and dissolved manganese prediction grids may be of interest to water-resource managers, water-quality researchers, and groundwater modelers concerned with the occurrence of natural and anthropogenic contaminants related to anoxic conditions. Prediction grids for selected redox constituents and thresholds were created by the USGS National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) modeling and mapping team.

Selection in a subdivided population with local extinction and recolonization.

PubMed Central

Cherry, Joshua L

2003-01-01

In a subdivided population, local extinction and subsequent recolonization affect the fate of alleles. Of particular interest is the interaction of this force with natural selection. The effect of selection can be weakened by this additional source of stochastic change in allele frequency. The behavior of a selected allele in such a population is shown to be equivalent to that of an allele with a different selection coefficient in an unstructured population with a different size. This equivalence allows use of established results for panmictic populations to predict such quantities as fixation probabilities and mean times to fixation. The magnitude of the quantity N(e)s(e), which determines fixation probability, is decreased by extinction and recolonization. Thus deleterious alleles are more likely to fix, and advantageous alleles less likely to do so, in the presence of extinction and recolonization. Computer simulations confirm that the theoretical predictions of both fixation probabilities and mean times to fixation are good approximations. PMID:12807797

LFSPMC: Linear feature selection program using the probability of misclassification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Guseman, L. F., Jr.; Marion, B. P.

1975-01-01

The computational procedure and associated computer program for a linear feature selection technique are presented. The technique assumes that: a finite number, m, of classes exists; each class is described by an n-dimensional multivariate normal density function of its measurement vectors; the mean vector and covariance matrix for each density function are known (or can be estimated); and the a priori probability for each class is known. The technique produces a single linear combination of the original measurements which minimizes the one-dimensional probability of misclassification defined by the transformed densities.

Quantifying recent erosion and sediment delivery using probability sampling: A case study

Treesearch

Jack Lewis

2002-01-01

Abstract - Estimates of erosion and sediment delivery have often relied on measurements from locations that were selected to be representative of particular terrain types. Such judgement samples are likely to overestimate or underestimate the mean of the quantity of interest. Probability sampling can eliminate the bias due to sample selection, and it permits the...

Neighbourhood inequalities in health and health-related behaviour: results of selective migration?

PubMed

van Lenthe, Frank J; Martikainen, Pekka; Mackenbach, Johan P

2007-03-01

We hypothesised that neighbourhood inequalities in health and health-related behaviour are due to selective migration between neighbourhoods. Ten-year follow-up data of 25-74-year-old participants in a Dutch city (Eindhoven) showed an increased probability of both upward and downward migration in 25-34-year-old participants, and in single and divorced participants. Women and those highly educated showed an increased probability of upward migration from the most deprived neighbourhoods; lower educated showed an increased probability of moving downwards. Adjusted for these factors, health and health-related behaviour were weakly associated with migration. Over 10 years of follow-up, selective migration will hardly contribute to neighbourhood inequalities in health and health-related behaviour.

Subject Information Resources: A Guide to Information Resources in Selected Subject Areas of the Humanities, the Social Sciences, and Pure and Applied Sciences.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schmidt, Janine, Ed.

Intended for use in courses in information resources at Kuring-gai College of Advanced Education, this guide approaches information resources by subject, building on previous information resources courses which concentrated on format. Resources for selected disciplines within the broad subject areas of the humanities, the social sciences, and pure…

Probabilistic reasoning in data analysis.

PubMed

Sirovich, Lawrence

2011-09-20

This Teaching Resource provides lecture notes, slides, and a student assignment for a lecture on probabilistic reasoning in the analysis of biological data. General probabilistic frameworks are introduced, and a number of standard probability distributions are described using simple intuitive ideas. Particular attention is focused on random arrivals that are independent of prior history (Markovian events), with an emphasis on waiting times, Poisson processes, and Poisson probability distributions. The use of these various probability distributions is applied to biomedical problems, including several classic experimental studies.

"I Don't Really Understand Probability at All": Final Year Pre-Service Teachers' Understanding of Probability

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Maher, Nicole; Muir, Tracey

2014-01-01

This paper reports on one aspect of a wider study that investigated a selection of final year pre-service primary teachers' responses to four probability tasks. The tasks focused on foundational ideas of probability including sample space, independence, variation and expectation. Responses suggested that strongly held intuitions appeared to…

MAROON BELLS-SNOWMASS WILDERNESS AND ADDITIONS, COLORADO.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Freeman, Val L.; Weisner, Robert C.

1984-01-01

The Maroon Bells-Snowmass Wilderness and Additions, located in western Colorado, was examined for mineral potential. Evidence of mineralization is widespread and numerous areas have either probable or substantiated mineral-resource potential for one or more of the following metals: gold, silver, lead, zinc, copper, and molybdenum. In addition, part of the wilderness has substantiated coal resource potential. There is little promise for the occurrence of oil and gas or geothermal resources.

The Development of Quality Control Genotyping Approaches: A Case Study Using Elite Maize Lines.

PubMed

Chen, Jiafa; Zavala, Cristian; Ortega, Noemi; Petroli, Cesar; Franco, Jorge; Burgueño, Juan; Costich, Denise E; Hearne, Sarah J

2016-01-01

Quality control (QC) of germplasm identity and purity is a critical component of breeding and conservation activities. SNP genotyping technologies and increased availability of markers provide the opportunity to employ genotyping as a low-cost and robust component of this QC. In the public sector available low-cost SNP QC genotyping methods have been developed from a very limited panel of markers of 1,000 to 1,500 markers without broad selection of the most informative SNPs. Selection of optimal SNPs and definition of appropriate germplasm sampling in addition to platform section impact on logistical and resource-use considerations for breeding and conservation applications when mainstreaming QC. In order to address these issues, we evaluated the selection and use of SNPs for QC applications from large DArTSeq data sets generated from CIMMYT maize inbred lines (CMLs). Two QC genotyping strategies were developed, the first is a "rapid QC", employing a small number of SNPs to identify potential mislabeling of seed packages or plots, the second is a "broad QC", employing a larger number of SNP, used to identify each germplasm entry and to measure heterogeneity. The optimal marker selection strategies combined the selection of markers with high minor allele frequency, sampling of clustered SNP in proportion to marker cluster distance and selecting markers that maintain a uniform genomic distribution. The rapid and broad QC SNP panels selected using this approach were further validated using blind test assessments of related re-generation samples. The influence of sampling within each line was evaluated. Sampling 192 individuals would result in close to 100% possibility of detecting a 5% contamination in the entry, and approximately a 98% probability to detect a 2% contamination of the line. These results provide a framework for the establishment of QC genotyping. A comparison of financial and time costs for use of these approaches across different platforms is discussed providing a framework for institutions involved in maize conservation and breeding to assess the resource use effectiveness of QC genotyping. Application of these research findings, in combination with existing QC approaches, will ensure the regeneration, distribution and use in breeding of true to type inbred germplasm. These findings also provide an effective approach to optimize SNP selection for QC genotyping in other species.

OSIRIS-REx: Sample Return from Asteroid (101955) Bennu

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lauretta, D. S.; Balram-Knutson, S. S.; Beshore, E.; Boynton, W. V.; Drouet d'Aubigny, C.; DellaGiustina, D. N.; Enos, H. L.; Golish, D. R.; Hergenrother, C. W.; Howell, E. S.; Bennett, C. A.; Morton, E. T.; Nolan, M. C.; Rizk, B.; Roper, H. L.; Bartels, A. E.; Bos, B. J.; Dworkin, J. P.; Highsmith, D. E.; Lorenz, D. A.; Lim, L. F.; Mink, R.; Moreau, M. C.; Nuth, J. A.; Reuter, D. C.; Simon, A. A.; Bierhaus, E. B.; Bryan, B. H.; Ballouz, R.; Barnouin, O. S.; Binzel, R. P.; Bottke, W. F.; Hamilton, V. E.; Walsh, K. J.; Chesley, S. R.; Christensen, P. R.; Clark, B. E.; Connolly, H. C.; Crombie, M. K.; Daly, M. G.; Emery, J. P.; McCoy, T. J.; McMahon, J. W.; Scheeres, D. J.; Messenger, S.; Nakamura-Messenger, K.; Righter, K.; Sandford, S. A.

2017-10-01

In May of 2011, NASA selected the Origins, Spectral Interpretation, Resource Identification, and Security- Regolith Explorer (OSIRIS-REx) asteroid sample return mission as the third mission in the New Frontiers program. The other two New Frontiers missions are New Horizons, which explored Pluto during a flyby in July 2015 and is on its way for a flyby of Kuiper Belt object 2014 MU69 on January 1, 2019, and Juno, an orbiting mission that is studying the origin, evolution, and internal structure of Jupiter. The spacecraft departed for near-Earth asteroid (101955) Bennu aboard an United Launch Alliance Atlas V 411 evolved expendable launch vehicle at 7:05 p.m. EDT on September 8, 2016, on a seven-year journey to return samples from Bennu. The spacecraft is on an outbound-cruise trajectory that will result in a rendezvous with Bennu in November 2018. The science instruments on the spacecraft will survey Bennu to measure its physical, geological, and chemical properties, and the team will use these data to select a site on the surface to collect at least 60 g of asteroid regolith. The team will also analyze the remote-sensing data to perform a detailed study of the sample site for context, assess Bennu's resource potential, refine estimates of its impact probability with Earth, and provide ground-truth data for the extensive astronomical data set collected on this asteroid. The spacecraft will leave Bennu in 2021 and return the sample to the Utah Test and Training Range (UTTR) on September 24, 2023.

Group living enhances individual resources discrimination: the use of public information by cockroaches to assess shelter quality.

PubMed

Canonge, Stéphane; Deneubourg, Jean-Louis; Sempo, Grégory

2011-01-01

In group-living organisms, consensual decision of site selection results from the interplay between individual responses to site characteristics and to group-members. Individuals independently gather personal information by exploring their environment. Through social interaction, the presence of others provides public information that could be used by individuals and modulates the individual probability of joining/leaving a site. The way that individual's information processing and the network of interactions influence the dynamics of public information (depending on population size) that in turn affect discrimination in site quality is a central question. Using binary choice between sheltering sites of different quality, we demonstrate that cockroaches in group dramatically outperform the problem-solving ability of single individual. Such use of public information allows animals to discriminate between alternatives whereas isolated individuals are ineffective (i.e. the personal discrimination efficiency is weak). Our theoretical results, obtained from a mathematical model based on behavioral rules derived from experiments, highlight that the collective discrimination emerges from competing amplification processes relying on the modulation of the individual sheltering time without shelters comparison and communication modulation. Finally, we well demonstrated here the adaptive value of such decision algorithm. Without any behavioral change, the system is able to shift to a more effective strategy when alternatives are present: the modification of the spatio-temporal distributions of individuals leading to the collective selection of the best resource. This collective discrimination implying such parsimonious and widespread mechanism must be shared by many group living-species.

Assessments of Wind-Energy Potential in Selected Sites from Three Geopolitical Zones in Nigeria: Implications for Renewable/Sustainable Rural Electrification

PubMed Central

Okeniyi, Joshua Olusegun; Ohunakin, Olayinka Soledayo; Okeniyi, Elizabeth Toyin

2015-01-01

Electricity generation in rural communities is an acute problem militating against socioeconomic well-being of the populace in these communities in developing countries, including Nigeria. In this paper, assessments of wind-energy potential in selected sites from three major geopolitical zones of Nigeria were investigated. For this, daily wind-speed data from Katsina in northern, Warri in southwestern and Calabar in southeastern Nigeria were analysed using the Gumbel and the Weibull probability distributions for assessing wind-energy potential as a renewable/sustainable solution for the country's rural-electrification problems. Results showed that the wind-speed models identified Katsina with higher wind-speed class than both Warri and Calabar that were otherwise identified as low wind-speed sites. However, econometrics of electricity power simulation at different hub heights of low wind-speed turbine systems showed that the cost of electric-power generation in the three study sites was converging to affordable cost per kWh of electric energy from the wind resource at each site. These power simulations identified cost/kWh of electricity generation at Kaduna as €0.0507, at Warri as €0.0774, and at Calabar as €0.0819. These bare positive implications on renewable/sustainable rural electrification in the study sites even as requisite options for promoting utilization of this viable wind-resource energy in the remote communities in the environs of the study sites were suggested. PMID:25879063

Assessments of wind-energy potential in selected sites from three geopolitical zones in Nigeria: implications for renewable/sustainable rural electrification.

PubMed

Okeniyi, Joshua Olusegun; Ohunakin, Olayinka Soledayo; Okeniyi, Elizabeth Toyin

2015-01-01

Electricity generation in rural communities is an acute problem militating against socioeconomic well-being of the populace in these communities in developing countries, including Nigeria. In this paper, assessments of wind-energy potential in selected sites from three major geopolitical zones of Nigeria were investigated. For this, daily wind-speed data from Katsina in northern, Warri in southwestern and Calabar in southeastern Nigeria were analysed using the Gumbel and the Weibull probability distributions for assessing wind-energy potential as a renewable/sustainable solution for the country's rural-electrification problems. Results showed that the wind-speed models identified Katsina with higher wind-speed class than both Warri and Calabar that were otherwise identified as low wind-speed sites. However, econometrics of electricity power simulation at different hub heights of low wind-speed turbine systems showed that the cost of electric-power generation in the three study sites was converging to affordable cost per kWh of electric energy from the wind resource at each site. These power simulations identified cost/kWh of electricity generation at Kaduna as €0.0507, at Warri as €0.0774, and at Calabar as €0.0819. These bare positive implications on renewable/sustainable rural electrification in the study sites even as requisite options for promoting utilization of this viable wind-resource energy in the remote communities in the environs of the study sites were suggested.

Computing under-ice discharge: A proof-of-concept using hydroacoustics and the Probability Concept

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fulton, John W.; Henneberg, Mark F.; Mills, Taylor J.; Kohn, Michael S.; Epstein, Brian; Hittle, Elizabeth A.; Damschen, William C.; Laveau, Christopher D.; Lambrecht, Jason M.; Farmer, William H.

2018-07-01

Under-ice discharge is estimated using open-water reference hydrographs; however, the ratings for ice-affected sites are generally qualified as poor. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in collaboration with the Colorado Water Conservation Board, conducted a proof-of-concept to develop an alternative method for computing under-ice discharge using hydroacoustics and the Probability Concept. The study site was located south of Minturn, Colorado (CO), USA, and was selected because of (1) its proximity to the existing USGS streamgage 09064600 Eagle River near Minturn, CO, and (2) its ease-of-access to verify discharge using a variety of conventional methods. From late September 2014 to early March 2015, hydraulic conditions varied from open water to under ice. These temporal changes led to variations in water depth and velocity. Hydroacoustics (tethered and uplooking acoustic Doppler current profilers and acoustic Doppler velocimeters) were deployed to measure the vertical-velocity profile at a singularly important vertical of the channel-cross section. Because the velocity profile was non-standard and cannot be characterized using a Power Law or Log Law, velocity data were analyzed using the Probability Concept, which is a probabilistic formulation of the velocity distribution. The Probability Concept-derived discharge was compared to conventional methods including stage-discharge and index-velocity ratings and concurrent field measurements; each is complicated by the dynamics of ice formation, pressure influences on stage measurements, and variations in cross-sectional area due to ice formation. No particular discharge method was assigned as truth. Rather one statistical metric (Kolmogorov-Smirnov; KS), agreement plots, and concurrent measurements provided a measure of comparability between various methods. Regardless of the method employed, comparisons between each method revealed encouraging results depending on the flow conditions and the absence or presence of ice cover. For example, during lower discharges dominated by under-ice and transition (intermittent open-water and under-ice) conditions, the KS metric suggests there is not sufficient information to reject the null hypothesis and implies that the Probability Concept and index-velocity rating represent similar distributions. During high-flow, open-water conditions, the comparisons are less definitive; therefore, it is important that the appropriate analytical method and instrumentation be selected. Six conventional discharge measurements were collected concurrently with Probability Concept-derived discharges with percent differences (%) of -9.0%, -21%, -8.6%, 17.8%, 3.6%, and -2.3%. This proof-of-concept demonstrates that riverine discharges can be computed using the Probability Concept for a range of hydraulic extremes (variations in discharge, open-water and under-ice conditions) immediately after the siting phase is complete, which typically requires one day. Computing real-time discharges is particularly important at sites, where (1) new streamgages are planned, (2) river hydraulics are complex, and (3) shifts in the stage-discharge rating are needed to correct the streamflow record. Use of the Probability Concept does not preclude the need to maintain a stage-area relation. Both the Probability Concept and index-velocity rating offer water-resource managers and decision makers alternatives for computing real-time discharge for open-water and under-ice conditions.

Computing under-ice discharge: A proof-of-concept using hydroacoustics and the Probability Concept

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fulton, John W.; Henneberg, Mark F.; Mills, Taylor J.; Kohn, Michael S.; Epstein, Brian; Hittle, Elizabeth A.; Damschen, William C.; Laveau, Christopher D.; Lambrecht, Jason M.; Farmer, William H.

2018-01-01

Under-ice discharge is estimated using open-water reference hydrographs; however, the ratings for ice-affected sites are generally qualified as poor. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in collaboration with the Colorado Water Conservation Board, conducted a proof-of-concept to develop an alternative method for computing under-ice discharge using hydroacoustics and the Probability Concept.The study site was located south of Minturn, Colorado (CO), USA, and was selected because of (1) its proximity to the existing USGS streamgage 09064600 Eagle River near Minturn, CO, and (2) its ease-of-access to verify discharge using a variety of conventional methods. From late September 2014 to early March 2015, hydraulic conditions varied from open water to under ice. These temporal changes led to variations in water depth and velocity. Hydroacoustics (tethered and uplooking acoustic Doppler current profilers and acoustic Doppler velocimeters) were deployed to measure the vertical-velocity profile at a singularly important vertical of the channel-cross section. Because the velocity profile was non-standard and cannot be characterized using a Power Law or Log Law, velocity data were analyzed using the Probability Concept, which is a probabilistic formulation of the velocity distribution. The Probability Concept-derived discharge was compared to conventional methods including stage-discharge and index-velocity ratings and concurrent field measurements; each is complicated by the dynamics of ice formation, pressure influences on stage measurements, and variations in cross-sectional area due to ice formation.No particular discharge method was assigned as truth. Rather one statistical metric (Kolmogorov-Smirnov; KS), agreement plots, and concurrent measurements provided a measure of comparability between various methods. Regardless of the method employed, comparisons between each method revealed encouraging results depending on the flow conditions and the absence or presence of ice cover.For example, during lower discharges dominated by under-ice and transition (intermittent open-water and under-ice) conditions, the KS metric suggests there is not sufficient information to reject the null hypothesis and implies that the Probability Concept and index-velocity rating represent similar distributions. During high-flow, open-water conditions, the comparisons are less definitive; therefore, it is important that the appropriate analytical method and instrumentation be selected. Six conventional discharge measurements were collected concurrently with Probability Concept-derived discharges with percent differences (%) of −9.0%, −21%, −8.6%, 17.8%, 3.6%, and −2.3%.This proof-of-concept demonstrates that riverine discharges can be computed using the Probability Concept for a range of hydraulic extremes (variations in discharge, open-water and under-ice conditions) immediately after the siting phase is complete, which typically requires one day. Computing real-time discharges is particularly important at sites, where (1) new streamgages are planned, (2) river hydraulics are complex, and (3) shifts in the stage-discharge rating are needed to correct the streamflow record. Use of the Probability Concept does not preclude the need to maintain a stage-area relation. Both the Probability Concept and index-velocity rating offer water-resource managers and decision makers alternatives for computing real-time discharge for open-water and under-ice conditions.

Resource reallocation patterns within Sagittaria trifolia inflorescences following differential pollination.

PubMed

Dai, Can; Luo, Wen-Jie; Gong, Yan-Bing; Liu, Fan; Wang, Zheng-Xiang

2018-04-30

Understanding resource allocation to reproduction, a key factor in life history tradeoffs, has long intrigued plant ecologists. Despite the recognized importance of understanding the movement of resources among flowers following variable pollination, the patterns of resource reallocation to plant reproductive organs have not been thoroughly addressed. In this study, we aimed to empirically explore how resources redistribute within inflorescences in response to differential pollination intensities. Using a common herb, Sagittaria trifolia, we conducted supplemental and controlled pollination for single, some, or all flowers in simple and complex inflorescences, and compared their resulting fruiting probabilities, seed production, and average seed masses. Pollen supplementation of a single flower significantly increased its fruiting probability; however, the same manipulation of an inflorescence did not increase its overall reproduction. Single pollen-supplemented flowers had a higher percentage fruit set than inflorescences receiving supplemental pollination. In complex inflorescences, supplemental pollination had no effect on the reproductive success of flowers on the lateral or main branches. We provided evidence of resource reallocation from controlled to pollen-supplemented flowers in simple inflorescences; however, resources were unlikely to be reallocated between the main and lateral branches in the complex inflorescences, suggesting that flowering branches represent integrated physiological units in S. trifolia. The results also demonstrated that single-flower supplemental pollination would exaggerate pollen limitation and lead to a biased understanding of a plant's reproductive status. © 2018 Botanical Society of America.

47 CFR 1.1623 - Probability calculation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 47 Telecommunication 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Probability calculation. 1.1623 Section 1.1623 Telecommunication FEDERAL COMMUNICATIONS COMMISSION GENERAL PRACTICE AND PROCEDURE Random Selection Procedures for Mass Media Services General Procedures § 1.1623 Probability calculation. (a) All calculations shall be...

How much spare capacity is necessary for the security of resource networks?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Qian-Chuan; Jia, Qing-Shan; Cao, Yang

2007-01-01

The balance between the supply and demand of some kind of resource is critical for the functionality and security of many complex networks. Local contingencies that break this balance can cause a global collapse. These contingencies are usually dealt with by spare capacity, which is costly especially when the network capacity (the total amount of the resource generated/consumed in the network) grows. This paper studies the relationship between the spare capacity and the collapse probability under separation contingencies when the network capacity grows. Our results are obtained based on the analysis of the existence probability of balanced partitions, which is a measure of network security when network splitting is unavoidable. We find that a network with growing capacity will inevitably collapse after a separation contingency if the spare capacity in each island increases slower than a linear function of the network capacity and there is no suitable global coordinator.

The routing, modulation level, and spectrum allocation algorithm in the virtual optical network mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yunyun; Li, Hui; Liu, Yuze; Ji, Yuefeng; Li, Hongfa

2017-10-01

With the development of large video services and cloud computing, the network is increasingly in the form of services. In SDON, the SDN controller holds the underlying physical resource information, thus allocating the appropriate resources and bandwidth to the VON service. However, for some services that require extremely strict QoT (quality of transmission), the shortest distance path algorithm is often unable to meet the requirements because it does not take the link spectrum resources into account. And in accordance with the choice of the most unoccupied links, there may be more spectrum fragments. So here we propose a new RMLSA (the routing, modulation Level, and spectrum allocation) algorithm to reduce the blocking probability. The results show about 40% less blocking probability than the shortest-distance algorithm and the minimum usage of the spectrum priority algorithm. This algorithm is used to satisfy strict request of QoT for demands.

WEMINUCHE WILDERNESS, COLORADO.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Steven, Thomas A.; Williams, F.E.

1984-01-01

A mineral survey of the Weminuche Wilderness, Colorado was conducted. Although little mineral production has been recorded in the area, it borders several highly productive mining districts and mineral deposits probably exist within parts of the wilderness. Within and near the wilderness, evidence of substantiated mineral-resource potential was found in the following four areas: (1) the Needle Mountains mining district, in the southwestern part of the wilderness, (2) Whitehead Gulch, in the northwestern part of the wilderness, (3) the Beartown mining district, along the north margin of the wilderness, and (4) the Trout Creek-Middle Fork Piedra River area, in and adjacent to the northeastern part of the wilderness. Of the four areas, the Needle Mountains mining district has the most promise for significant mineral resources, particularly of molydenum and uranium. A probable oil and gas resource potential exists in the eastern half of the area in traps in sedimentary rocks under volcanic cover.

48 CFR 873.109 - General requirements for acquisition of health-care resources.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... acquisition of health-care resources. 873.109 Section 873.109 Federal Acquisition Regulations System... HEALTH-CARE RESOURCES 873.109 General requirements for acquisition of health-care resources. (a) Source selection authority. Contracting officers shall be the source selection authority for acquisitions of health...

48 CFR 873.109 - General requirements for acquisition of health-care resources.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... acquisition of health-care resources. 873.109 Section 873.109 Federal Acquisition Regulations System... HEALTH-CARE RESOURCES 873.109 General requirements for acquisition of health-care resources. (a) Source selection authority. Contracting officers shall be the source selection authority for acquisitions of health...

Probability and volume of potential postwildfire debris flows in the 2010 Fourmile burn area, Boulder County, Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ruddy, Barbara C.; Stevens, Michael R.; Verdin, Kristine

2010-01-01

This report presents a preliminary emergency assessment of the debris-flow hazards from drainage basins burned by the Fourmile Creek fire in Boulder County, Colorado, in 2010. Empirical models derived from statistical evaluation of data collected from recently burned basins throughout the intermountain western United States were used to estimate the probability of debris-flow occurrence and volumes of debris flows for selected drainage basins. Data for the models include burn severity, rainfall total and intensity for a 25-year-recurrence, 1-hour-duration rainstorm, and topographic and soil property characteristics. Several of the selected drainage basins in Fourmile Creek and Gold Run were identified as having probabilities of debris-flow occurrence greater than 60 percent, and many more with probabilities greater than 45 percent, in response to the 25-year recurrence, 1-hour rainfall. None of the Fourmile Canyon Creek drainage basins selected had probabilities greater than 45 percent. Throughout the Gold Run area and the Fourmile Creek area upstream from Gold Run, the higher probabilities tend to be in the basins with southerly aspects (southeast, south, and southwest slopes). Many basins along the perimeter of the fire area were identified as having low probability of occurrence of debris flow. Volume of debris flows predicted from drainage basins with probabilities of occurrence greater than 60 percent ranged from 1,200 to 9,400 m3. The predicted moderately high probabilities and some of the larger volumes responses predicted for the modeled storm indicate a potential for substantial debris-flow effects to buildings, roads, bridges, culverts, and reservoirs located both within these drainages and immediately downstream from the burned area. However, even small debris flows that affect structures at the basin outlets could cause considerable damage.

Surfer: An Extensible Pull-Based Framework for Resource Selection and Ranking

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zolano, Paul Z.

2004-01-01

Grid computing aims to connect large numbers of geographically and organizationally distributed resources to increase computational power; resource utilization, and resource accessibility. In order to effectively utilize grids, users need to be connected to the best available resources at any given time. As grids are in constant flux, users cannot be expected to keep up with the configuration and status of the grid, thus they must be provided with automatic resource brokering for selecting and ranking resources meeting constraints and preferences they specify. This paper presents a new OGSI-compliant resource selection and ranking framework called Surfer that has been implemented as part of NASA's Information Power Grid (IPG) project. Surfer is highly extensible and may be integrated into any grid environment by adding information providers knowledgeable about that environment.

Probability of detecting atrazine/desethyl-atrazine and elevated concentrations of nitrate plus nitrate as nitrogen in ground water in the Idaho part of the western Snake River Plain

USGS Publications Warehouse

Donato, Mary M.

2000-01-01

As ground water continues to provide an ever-growing proportion of Idaho?s drinking water, concerns about the quality of that resource are increasing. Pesticides (most commonly, atrazine/desethyl-atrazine, hereafter referred to as atrazine) and nitrite plus nitrate as nitrogen (hereafter referred to as nitrate) have been detected in many aquifers in the State. To provide a sound hydrogeologic basis for atrazine and nitrate management in southern Idaho—the largest region of land and water use in the State—the U.S. Geological Survey produced maps showing the probability of detecting these contaminants in ground water in the upper Snake River Basin (published in a 1998 report) and the western Snake River Plain (published in this report). The atrazine probability map for the western Snake River Plain was constructed by overlaying ground-water quality data with hydrogeologic and anthropogenic data in a geographic information system (GIS). A data set was produced in which each well had corresponding information on land use, geology, precipitation, soil characteristics, regional depth to ground water, well depth, water level, and atrazine use. These data were analyzed by logistic regression using a statistical software package. Several preliminary multivariate models were developed and those that best predicted the detection of atrazine were selected. The multivariate models then were entered into a GIS and the probability maps were produced. Land use, precipitation, soil hydrologic group, and well depth were significantly correlated with atrazine detections in the western Snake River Plain. These variables also were important in the 1998 probability study of the upper Snake River Basin. The effectiveness of the probability models for atrazine might be improved if more detailed data were available for atrazine application. A preliminary atrazine probability map for the entire Snake River Plain in Idaho, based on a data set representing that region, also was produced. In areas where this map overlaps the 1998 map of the upper Snake River Basin, the two maps show broadly similar probabilities of detecting atrazine. Logistic regression also was used to develop a preliminary statistical model that predicts the probability of detecting elevated nitrate in the western Snake River Plain. A nitrate probability map was produced from this model. Results showed that elevated nitrate concentrations were correlated with land use, soil organic content, well depth, and water level. Detailed information on nitrate input, specifically fertilizer application, might have improved the effectiveness of this model.

Efficient pairwise RNA structure prediction using probabilistic alignment constraints in Dynalign

PubMed Central

2007-01-01

Background Joint alignment and secondary structure prediction of two RNA sequences can significantly improve the accuracy of the structural predictions. Methods addressing this problem, however, are forced to employ constraints that reduce computation by restricting the alignments and/or structures (i.e. folds) that are permissible. In this paper, a new methodology is presented for the purpose of establishing alignment constraints based on nucleotide alignment and insertion posterior probabilities. Using a hidden Markov model, posterior probabilities of alignment and insertion are computed for all possible pairings of nucleotide positions from the two sequences. These alignment and insertion posterior probabilities are additively combined to obtain probabilities of co-incidence for nucleotide position pairs. A suitable alignment constraint is obtained by thresholding the co-incidence probabilities. The constraint is integrated with Dynalign, a free energy minimization algorithm for joint alignment and secondary structure prediction. The resulting method is benchmarked against the previous version of Dynalign and against other programs for pairwise RNA structure prediction. Results The proposed technique eliminates manual parameter selection in Dynalign and provides significant computational time savings in comparison to prior constraints in Dynalign while simultaneously providing a small improvement in the structural prediction accuracy. Savings are also realized in memory. In experiments over a 5S RNA dataset with average sequence length of approximately 120 nucleotides, the method reduces computation by a factor of 2. The method performs favorably in comparison to other programs for pairwise RNA structure prediction: yielding better accuracy, on average, and requiring significantly lesser computational resources. Conclusion Probabilistic analysis can be utilized in order to automate the determination of alignment constraints for pairwise RNA structure prediction methods in a principled fashion. These constraints can reduce the computational and memory requirements of these methods while maintaining or improving their accuracy of structural prediction. This extends the practical reach of these methods to longer length sequences. The revised Dynalign code is freely available for download. PMID:17445273

Selection of arboreal termitaria for nesting by cooperatively breeding Micronesian Kingfishers Todiramphus cinnamominus reichenbachii

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kesler, Dylan C.; Haig, Susan M.

2005-01-01

Limited nest-site availability appears to be an important factor in the evolution of delayed dispersal and cooperative breeding in some cavity-nesting species. The cooperatively breeding Pohnpei subspecies of Micronesian Kingfisher Todiramphus cinnamominus reichenbachii excavates nest cavities from the nests of arboreal termites Nasutitermes spp., or termitaria. In this first published description of nest-sites for this subspecies, we used surveys, remote sensing and radiotelemetry to evaluate the relationship between nest-site availability and co-operation. Results illustrate that nest termitaria are higher in the forest canopy, larger in volume and occur in areas with more contiguous canopy cover than unused termitaria. Nest termitaria were selected independently of the proximity to forest edges and territory boundaries, and we found no difference in characteristics of termitaria used by cooperative groups and breeding pairs. Logistic regression modelling indicated that termitaria with nest-like characteristics were not limited in abundance, suggesting that neither the prospects of inheriting nesting resources nor limited nest-site abundance are probable explanations for delayed dispersal in the Pohnpei subspecies of Micronesian Kingfisher.

Multi-alternative decision-making with non-stationary inputs.

PubMed

Nunes, Luana F; Gurney, Kevin

2016-08-01

One of the most widely implemented models for multi-alternative decision-making is the multihypothesis sequential probability ratio test (MSPRT). It is asymptotically optimal, straightforward to implement, and has found application in modelling biological decision-making. However, the MSPRT is limited in application to discrete ('trial-based'), non-time-varying scenarios. By contrast, real world situations will be continuous and entail stimulus non-stationarity. In these circumstances, decision-making mechanisms (like the MSPRT) which work by accumulating evidence, must be able to discard outdated evidence which becomes progressively irrelevant. To address this issue, we introduce a new decision mechanism by augmenting the MSPRT with a rectangular integration window and a transparent decision boundary. This allows selection and de-selection of options as their evidence changes dynamically. Performance was enhanced by adapting the window size to problem difficulty. Further, we present an alternative windowing method which exponentially decays evidence and does not significantly degrade performance, while greatly reducing the memory resources necessary. The methods presented have proven successful at allowing for the MSPRT algorithm to function in a non-stationary environment.

A Comparison of EPI Sampling, Probability Sampling, and Compact Segment Sampling Methods for Micro and Small Enterprises

PubMed Central

Chao, Li-Wei; Szrek, Helena; Peltzer, Karl; Ramlagan, Shandir; Fleming, Peter; Leite, Rui; Magerman, Jesswill; Ngwenya, Godfrey B.; Pereira, Nuno Sousa; Behrman, Jere

2011-01-01

Finding an efficient method for sampling micro- and small-enterprises (MSEs) for research and statistical reporting purposes is a challenge in developing countries, where registries of MSEs are often nonexistent or outdated. This lack of a sampling frame creates an obstacle in finding a representative sample of MSEs. This study uses computer simulations to draw samples from a census of businesses and non-businesses in the Tshwane Municipality of South Africa, using three different sampling methods: the traditional probability sampling method, the compact segment sampling method, and the World Health Organization’s Expanded Programme on Immunization (EPI) sampling method. Three mechanisms by which the methods could differ are tested, the proximity selection of respondents, the at-home selection of respondents, and the use of inaccurate probability weights. The results highlight the importance of revisits and accurate probability weights, but the lesser effect of proximity selection on the samples’ statistical properties. PMID:22582004

Impact of high-risk conjunctions on Active Debris Removal target selection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lidtke, Aleksander A.; Lewis, Hugh G.; Armellin, Roberto

2015-10-01

Space debris simulations show that if current space launches continue unchanged, spacecraft operations might become difficult in the congested space environment. It has been suggested that Active Debris Removal (ADR) might be necessary in order to prevent such a situation. Selection of objects to be targeted by ADR is considered important because removal of non-relevant objects will unnecessarily increase the cost of ADR. One of the factors to be used in this ADR target selection is the collision probability accumulated by every object. This paper shows the impact of high-probability conjunctions on the collision probability accumulated by individual objects as well as the probability of any collision occurring in orbit. Such conjunctions cannot be predicted far in advance and, consequently, not all the objects that will be involved in such dangerous conjunctions can be removed through ADR. Therefore, a debris remediation method that would address such events at short notice, and thus help prevent likely collisions, is suggested.

Ponder This

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yevdokimov, Oleksiy

2009-01-01

This article presents a problem set which includes a selection of probability problems. Probability theory started essentially as an empirical science and developed on the mathematical side later. The problems featured in this article demonstrate diversity of ideas and different concepts of probability, in particular, they refer to Laplace and…

Resource selection by Indiana bats during the maternity season

Treesearch

Kathryn M. Womack; Sybill K. Amelon; Frank R. Thompson

2013-01-01

Little information exists on resource selection by foraging Indiana bats (Myotis sodalis) during the maternity season. Existing studies are based on modest sample sizes because of the rarity of this endangered species and the difficulty of radio-tracking bats. Our objectives were to determine resource selection by foraging Indiana bats during the maternity season and...

Resource selection by juvenile Swainson's thrushes during the postfledging period

Treesearch

Jennifer D. ​White; Thomas Gardali; Frank R. Thompson; John Faaborg

2005-01-01

Resource-selection studies of passerine birds during the breeding season have mainly been limited to understanding those factors important to nesting. However, little is known about what resources are selected by juveniles that are no longer dependent on their parents. The postfledging period may be a critical part of the breeding season for independent juveniles...

Evaluation of resource selection methods with different definitions of availability

Treesearch

Seth A. McClean; Mark A. Rumble; Rudy M. King; William L. Baker

1998-01-01

Because resource selection is of paramount importance to ecology and management of any species, we compared 6 statistical methods of analyzing resource selection data, given the known biological requirements of radiomarked Merriam’s wild turkey (Meleagris gallopavo merriami) hens with poults in the Black Hills of South Dakota. A single variable,...

Managing Selection for Electronic Resources: Kent State University Develops a New System to Automate Selection

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Downey, Kay

2012-01-01

Kent State University has developed a centralized system that manages the communication and work related to the review and selection of commercially available electronic resources. It is an automated system that tracks the review process, provides selectors with price and trial information, and compiles reviewers' feedback about the resource. It…

Identification of phreatophytic groundwater dependent ecosystems using geospatial technologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perez Hoyos, Isabel Cristina

The protection of groundwater dependent ecosystems (GDEs) is increasingly being recognized as an essential aspect for the sustainable management and allocation of water resources. Ecosystem services are crucial for human well-being and for a variety of flora and fauna. However, the conservation of GDEs is only possible if knowledge about their location and extent is available. Several studies have focused on the identification of GDEs at specific locations using ground-based measurements. However, recent progress in technologies such as remote sensing and their integration with geographic information systems (GIS) has provided alternative ways to map GDEs at much larger spatial extents. This study is concerned with the discovery of patterns in geospatial data sets using data mining techniques for mapping phreatophytic GDEs in the United States at 1 km spatial resolution. A methodology to identify the probability of an ecosystem to be groundwater dependent is developed. Probabilities are obtained by modeling the relationship between the known locations of GDEs and main factors influencing groundwater dependency, namely water table depth (WTD) and aridity index (AI). A methodology is proposed to predict WTD at 1 km spatial resolution using relevant geospatial data sets calibrated with WTD observations. An ensemble learning algorithm called random forest (RF) is used in order to model the distribution of groundwater in three study areas: Nevada, California, and Washington, as well as in the entire United States. RF regression performance is compared with a single regression tree (RT). The comparison is based on contrasting training error, true prediction error, and variable importance estimates of both methods. Additionally, remote sensing variables are omitted from the process of fitting the RF model to the data to evaluate the deterioration in the model performance when these variables are not used as an input. Research results suggest that although the prediction accuracy of a single RT is reduced in comparison with RFs, single trees can still be used to understand the interactions that might be taking place between predictor variables and the response variable. Regarding RF, there is a great potential in using the power of an ensemble of trees for prediction of WTD. The superior capability of RF to accurately map water table position in Nevada, California, and Washington demonstrate that this technique can be applied at scales larger than regional levels. It is also shown that the removal of remote sensing variables from the RF training process degrades the performance of the model. Using the predicted WTD, the probability of an ecosystem to be groundwater dependent (GDE probability) is estimated at 1 km spatial resolution. The modeling technique is evaluated in the state of Nevada, USA to develop a systematic approach for the identification of GDEs and it is then applied in the United States. The modeling approach selected for the development of the GDE probability map results from a comparison of the performance of classification trees (CT) and classification forests (CF). Predictive performance evaluation for the selection of the most accurate model is achieved using a threshold independent technique, and the prediction accuracy of both models is assessed in greater detail using threshold-dependent measures. The resulting GDE probability map can potentially be used for the definition of conservation areas since it can be translated into a binary classification map with two classes: GDE and NON-GDE. These maps are created by selecting a probability threshold. It is demonstrated that the choice of this threshold has dramatic effects on deterministic model performance measures.

Systematic review and need assessment of pediatric trauma outcome benchmarking tools for low-resource settings.

PubMed

St-Louis, Etienne; Séguin, Jade; Roizblatt, Daniel; Deckelbaum, Dan Leon; Baird, Robert; Razek, Tarek

2017-03-01

Trauma is a leading cause of mortality and disability in children worldwide. The World Health Organization reports that 95% of all childhood injury deaths occur in Low-Middle-Income Countries (LMIC). Injury scores have been developed to facilitate risk stratification, clinical decision making, and research. Trauma registries in LMIC depend on adapted trauma scores that do not rely on investigations that require unavailable material or human resources. We sought to review and assess the existing trauma scores used in pediatric patients. Our objective is to determine their wideness of use, validity, setting of use, outcome measures, and criticisms. We believe that there is a need for an adapted trauma score developed specifically for pediatric patients in low-resource settings. A systematic review of the literature was conducted to identify and compare existing injury scores used in pediatric patients. We constructed a search strategy in collaboration with a senior hospital librarian. Multiple databases were searched, including Embase, Medline, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials. Articles were selected based on predefined inclusion criteria by two reviewers and underwent qualitative analysis. The scores identified are suboptimal for use in pediatric patients in low-resource settings due to various factors, including reliance on precise anatomic diagnosis, physiologic parameters maladapted to pediatric patients, or laboratory data with inconsistent accessibility in LMIC. An important gap exists in our ability to simply and reliably estimate injury severity in pediatric patients and predict their associated probability of outcomes in settings, where resources are limited. An ideal score should be easy to calculate using point-of-care data that are readily available in LMIC, and can be easily adapted to the specific physiologic variations of different age groups.

Integrated Water Resources Planning and Management in Arid/Semi-arid Regions: Data, Modeling, and Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gupta, H.; Liu, Y.; Wagener, T.; Durcik, M.; Duffy, C.; Springer, E.

2005-12-01

Water resources in arid and semi-arid regions are highly sensitive to climate variability and change. As the demand for water continues to increase due to economic and population growth, planning and management of available water resources under climate uncertainties becomes increasingly critical in order to achieve basin-scale water sustainability (i.e., to ensure a long-term balance between supply and demand of water).The tremendous complexity of the interactions between the natural hydrologic system and the human environment means that modeling is the only available mechanism for properly integrating new knowledge into the decision-making process. Basin-scale integrated models have the potential to allow us to study the feedback processes between the physical and human systems (including institutional, engineering, and behavioral components); and an integrated assessment of the potential second- and higher-order effects of political and management decisions can aid in the selection of a rational water-resources policy. Data and information, especially hydrological and water-use data, are critical to the integrated modeling and assessment for water resources management of any region. To this end we are in the process of developing a multi-resolution integrated modeling and assessment framework for the south-western USA, which can be used to generate simulations of the probable effects of human actions while taking into account the uncertainties brought about by future climatic variability and change. Data are being collected (including the development of a hydro-geospatial database) and used in support of the modeling and assessment activities. This paper will present a blueprint of the modeling framework, describe achievements so far and discuss the science questions which still require answers with a particular emphasis on issues related to dry regions.

Elucidating spatially explicit behavioral landscapes in the Willow Flycatcher

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bakian, Amanda V.; Sullivan, Kimberly A.; Paxton, Eben H.

2012-01-01

Animal resource selection is a complex, hierarchical decision-making process, yet resource selection studies often focus on the presence and absence of an animal rather than the animal's behavior at resource use locations. In this study, we investigate foraging and vocalization resource selection in a population of Willow Flycatchers, Empidonax traillii adastus, using Bayesian spatial generalized linear models. These models produce “behavioral landscapes” in which space use and resource selection is linked through behavior. Radio telemetry locations were collected from 35 adult Willow Flycatchers (n = 14 males, n = 13 females, and n = 8 unknown sex) over the 2003 and 2004 breeding seasons at Fish Creek, Utah. Results from the 2-stage modeling approach showed that habitat type, perch position, and distance from the arithmetic mean of the home range (in males) or nest site (in females) were important factors influencing foraging and vocalization resource selection. Parameter estimates from the individual-level models indicated high intraspecific variation in the use of the various habitat types and perch heights for foraging and vocalization. On the population level, Willow Flycatchers selected riparian habitat over other habitat types for vocalizing but used multiple habitat types for foraging including mountain shrub, young riparian, and upland forest. Mapping of observed and predicted foraging and vocalization resource selection indicated that the behavior often occurred in disparate areas of the home range. This suggests that multiple core areas may exist in the home ranges of individual flycatchers, and demonstrates that the behavioral landscape modeling approach can be applied to identify spatially and behaviorally distinct core areas. The behavioral landscape approach is applicable to a wide range of animal taxa and can be used to improve our understanding of the spatial context of behavior and resource selection.

Bayesian adaptive survey protocols for resource management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Halstead, Brian J.; Wylie, Glenn D.; Coates, Peter S.; Casazza, Michael L.

2011-01-01

Transparency in resource management decisions requires a proper accounting of uncertainty at multiple stages of the decision-making process. As information becomes available, periodic review and updating of resource management protocols reduces uncertainty and improves management decisions. One of the most basic steps to mitigating anthropogenic effects on populations is determining if a population of a species occurs in an area that will be affected by human activity. Species are rarely detected with certainty, however, and falsely declaring a species absent can cause improper conservation decisions or even extirpation of populations. We propose a method to design survey protocols for imperfectly detected species that accounts for multiple sources of uncertainty in the detection process, is capable of quantitatively incorporating expert opinion into the decision-making process, allows periodic updates to the protocol, and permits resource managers to weigh the severity of consequences if the species is falsely declared absent. We developed our method using the giant gartersnake (Thamnophis gigas), a threatened species precinctive to the Central Valley of California, as a case study. Survey date was negatively related to the probability of detecting the giant gartersnake, and water temperature was positively related to the probability of detecting the giant gartersnake at a sampled location. Reporting sampling effort, timing and duration of surveys, and water temperatures would allow resource managers to evaluate the probability that the giant gartersnake occurs at sampled sites where it is not detected. This information would also allow periodic updates and quantitative evaluation of changes to the giant gartersnake survey protocol. Because it naturally allows multiple sources of information and is predicated upon the idea of updating information, Bayesian analysis is well-suited to solving the problem of developing efficient sampling protocols for species of conservation concern.

On the Structure of a Best Possible Crossover Selection Strategy in Genetic Algorithms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lässig, Jörg; Hoffmann, Karl Heinz

The paper considers the problem of selecting individuals in the current population in genetic algorithms for crossover to find a solution with high fitness for a given optimization problem. Many different schemes have been described in the literature as possible strategies for this task but so far comparisons have been predominantly empirical. It is shown that if one wishes to maximize any linear function of the final state probabilities, e.g. the fitness of the best individual in the final population of the algorithm, then a best probability distribution for selecting an individual in each generation is a rectangular distribution over the individuals sorted in descending sequence by their fitness values. This means uniform probabilities have to be assigned to a group of the best individuals of the population but probabilities equal to zero to individuals with lower fitness, assuming that the probability distribution to choose individuals from the current population can be chosen independently for each iteration and each individual. This result is then generalized also to typical practically applied performance measures, such as maximizing the expected fitness value of the best individual seen in any generation.

GLACIER BAY NATIONAL MONUMENT WILDERNESS STUDY AREA, ALASKA.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brew, David A.; Kimball, Arthur L.

1984-01-01

Glacier Bay National Monument is a highly scenic and highly mineralized area about 100 mi west of Juneau, Alaska. Four deposits with demonstrated resources of nickel, copper, zinc, and molybdenum have been identified within the monument and eleven areas of probable or substantiated mineral-resource potential have been identified. The monument is highly mineralized in comparison with most areas of similar size elsewhere in southeastern Alaska, and present estimates of mineral resources are considered conservative.

EAGLE CAP WILDERNESS AND ADJACENT AREAS, OREGON.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kilsgaard, Thor H.; Tuchek, Ernest T.

1984-01-01

On the basis of a mineral survey of the Eagle Cap Wilderness and adjacent areas a probable mineral-resources potential was identified in five areas in the eastern part of the wilderness. Mineral resources are most likely to occur in tactite deposits in sedimentary rocks at or near contacts with intrusive granitic rocks that could contain copper and small amounts of other metals; however, there is little promise for the occurrence of energy resources.

SOCR: Statistics Online Computational Resource

PubMed Central

Dinov, Ivo D.

2011-01-01

The need for hands-on computer laboratory experience in undergraduate and graduate statistics education has been firmly established in the past decade. As a result a number of attempts have been undertaken to develop novel approaches for problem-driven statistical thinking, data analysis and result interpretation. In this paper we describe an integrated educational web-based framework for: interactive distribution modeling, virtual online probability experimentation, statistical data analysis, visualization and integration. Following years of experience in statistical teaching at all college levels using established licensed statistical software packages, like STATA, S-PLUS, R, SPSS, SAS, Systat, etc., we have attempted to engineer a new statistics education environment, the Statistics Online Computational Resource (SOCR). This resource performs many of the standard types of statistical analysis, much like other classical tools. In addition, it is designed in a plug-in object-oriented architecture and is completely platform independent, web-based, interactive, extensible and secure. Over the past 4 years we have tested, fine-tuned and reanalyzed the SOCR framework in many of our undergraduate and graduate probability and statistics courses and have evidence that SOCR resources build student’s intuition and enhance their learning. PMID:21451741

Temporal and spatial characteristics of extreme precipitation events in the Midwest of Jilin Province based on multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis method and copula functions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Enliang; Zhang, Jiquan; Si, Ha; Dong, Zhenhua; Cao, Tiehua; Lan, Wu

2017-10-01

Environmental changes have brought about significant changes and challenges to water resources and management in the world; these include increasing climate variability, land use change, intensive agriculture, and rapid urbanization and industrial development, especially much more frequency extreme precipitation events. All of which greatly affect water resource and the development of social economy. In this study, we take extreme precipitation events in the Midwest of Jilin Province as an example; daily precipitation data during 1960-2014 are used. The threshold of extreme precipitation events is defined by multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) method. Extreme precipitation (EP), extreme precipitation ratio (EPR), and intensity of extreme precipitation (EPI) are selected as the extreme precipitation indicators, and then the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) test is employed to determine the optimal probability distribution function of extreme precipitation indicators. On this basis, copulas connect nonparametric estimation method and the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) method is adopted to determine the bivariate copula function. Finally, we analyze the characteristics of single variable extremum and bivariate joint probability distribution of the extreme precipitation events. The results show that the threshold of extreme precipitation events in semi-arid areas is far less than that in subhumid areas. The extreme precipitation frequency shows a significant decline while the extreme precipitation intensity shows a trend of growth; there are significant differences in spatiotemporal of extreme precipitation events. The spatial variation trend of the joint return period gets shorter from the west to the east. The spatial distribution of co-occurrence return period takes on contrary changes and it is longer than the joint return period.

Construction of estimated flow- and load-duration curves for Kentucky using the Water Availability Tool for Environmental Resources (WATER)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Unthank, Michael D.; Newson, Jeremy K.; Williamson, Tanja N.; Nelson, Hugh L.

2012-01-01

Flow- and load-duration curves were constructed from the model outputs of the U.S. Geological Survey's Water Availability Tool for Environmental Resources (WATER) application for streams in Kentucky. The WATER application was designed to access multiple geospatial datasets to generate more than 60 years of statistically based streamflow data for Kentucky. The WATER application enables a user to graphically select a site on a stream and generate an estimated hydrograph and flow-duration curve for the watershed upstream of that point. The flow-duration curves are constructed by calculating the exceedance probability of the modeled daily streamflows. User-defined water-quality criteria and (or) sampling results can be loaded into the WATER application to construct load-duration curves that are based on the modeled streamflow results. Estimates of flow and streamflow statistics were derived from TOPographically Based Hydrological MODEL (TOPMODEL) simulations in the WATER application. A modified TOPMODEL code, SDP-TOPMODEL (Sinkhole Drainage Process-TOPMODEL) was used to simulate daily mean discharges over the period of record for 5 karst and 5 non-karst watersheds in Kentucky in order to verify the calibrated model. A statistical evaluation of the model's verification simulations show that calibration criteria, established by previous WATER application reports, were met thus insuring the model's ability to provide acceptably accurate estimates of discharge at gaged and ungaged sites throughout Kentucky. Flow-duration curves are constructed in the WATER application by calculating the exceedence probability of the modeled daily flow values. The flow-duration intervals are expressed as a percentage, with zero corresponding to the highest stream discharge in the streamflow record. Load-duration curves are constructed by applying the loading equation (Load = Flow*Water-quality criterion) at each flow interval.

Consequences of habitat change and resource selection specialization for population limitation in cavity-nesting birds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Martin, Thomas E.

2015-01-01

Synthesis and applications. Management should target species that specialize in resource selection on a declining resource. Species with greater resource selection generalization can reduce population impacts of environmental change. Resource generalization can allow a species like the wren to take advantage of habitat refuges, such as those provided by the elk exclosures. Yet, resource generalization cannot offset the negative impacts of broad-scale declines in habitat quality on the landscape, as demonstrated by the general decline of wrens. Ultimately, aspen is an important habitat for biodiversity, and land management programmes that protect and aid recovery of aspen habitats may be critical.

Sensitivity study of Space Station Freedom operations cost and selected user resources

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Accola, Anne; Fincannon, H. J.; Williams, Gregory J.; Meier, R. Timothy

1990-01-01

The results of sensitivity studies performed to estimate probable ranges for four key Space Station parameters using the Space Station Freedom's Model for Estimating Space Station Operations Cost (MESSOC) are discussed. The variables examined are grouped into five main categories: logistics, crew, design, space transportation system, and training. The modification of these variables implies programmatic decisions in areas such as orbital replacement unit (ORU) design, investment in repair capabilities, and crew operations policies. The model utilizes a wide range of algorithms and an extensive trial logistics data base to represent Space Station operations. The trial logistics data base consists largely of a collection of the ORUs that comprise the mature station, and their characteristics based on current engineering understanding of the Space Station. A nondimensional approach is used to examine the relative importance of variables on parameters.

Divided attention deficits in patients with chronic fatigue syndrome.

PubMed

Ross, S; Fantie, B; Straus, S F; Grafman, J

2001-01-01

Chronic fatigue syndrome (CFS) patients and controls were compared on a variety of mood state, personality, and neuropsychological measures, including memory, word finding, and attentional tasks that required participants to focus, sustain, or divide their attention, or to perform a combination of these functions. CFS patients demonstrated a selective deficit on 3 measures of divided attention. Their performance on the other neuropsychological tests of intelligence, fluency, and memory was no different than that of normal controls despite their reports of generally diminished cognitive capacity. There was an inverse relation between CFS patient fatigue severity and performance on 1 of the divided attention measures. Given these findings, it is probable that CFS patients will report more cognitive difficulties in real-life situations that cause them to divide their effort or rapidly reallocate cognitive resources between 2 response channels (vision and audition).

Review of the use of pretest probability for molecular testing in non-small cell lung cancer and overview of new mutations that may affect clinical practice.

PubMed

Martin, Petra; Leighl, Natasha B

2017-06-01

This article considers the use of pretest probability in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and how its use in EGFR testing has helped establish clinical guidelines on selecting patients for EGFR testing. With an ever-increasing number of molecular abnormalities being identified and often limited tissue available for testing, the use of pretest probability will need to be increasingly considered in the future for selecting investigations and treatments in patients. In addition we review new mutations that have the potential to affect clinical practice.

An integrated GIS/remote sensing data base in North Cache soil conservation district, Utah: A pilot project for the Utah Department of Agriculture's RIMS (Resource Inventory and Monitoring System)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wheeler, D. J.; Ridd, M. K.; Merola, J. A.

1984-01-01

A basic geographic information system (GIS) for the North Cache Soil Conservation District (SCD) was sought for selected resource problems. Since the resource management issues in the North Cache SCD are very complex, it is not feasible in the initial phase to generate all the physical, socioeconomic, and political baseline data needed for resolving all management issues. A selection of critical varables becomes essential. Thus, there are foud specific objectives: (1) assess resource management needs and determine which resource factors ae most fundamental for building a beginning data base; (2) evaluate the variety of data gathering and analysis techniques for the resource factors selected; (3) incorporate the resulting data into a useful and efficient digital data base; and (4) demonstrate the application of the data base to selected real world resoource management issues.

Studying Teacher Selection of Resources in an Ultra-Large Scale Interactive System: Does Metadata Guide the Way?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Abramovich, Samuel; Schunn, Christian

2012-01-01

Ultra-large-scale interactive systems on the Internet have begun to change how teachers prepare for instruction, particularly in regards to resource selection. Consequently, it is important to look at how teachers are currently selecting resources beyond content or keyword search. We conducted a two-part observational study of an existing popular…

Flipping between Languages? An Exploratory Analysis of the Usage by Spanish-Speaking English Language Learner Tertiary Students of a Bilingual Probability Applet

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lesser, Lawrence M.; Wagler, Amy E.; Salazar, Berenice

2016-01-01

English language learners (ELLs) are a rapidly growing part of the student population in many countries. Studies on resources for language learners--especially Spanish-speaking ELLs--have focused on areas such as reading, writing, and mathematics, but not introductory probability and statistics. Semi-structured qualitative interviews investigated…

Spanish juniper gain expansion opportunities by counting on a functionally diverse dispersal assemblage community.

PubMed

Escribano-Ávila, Gema; Pías, Beatriz; Sanz-Pérez, Virginia; Virgós, Emilio; Escudero, Adrián; Valladares, Fernando

2013-10-01

Seed dispersal is typically performed by a diverse array of species assemblages with different behavioral and morphological traits which determine dispersal quality (DQ, defined as the probability of recruitment of a dispersed seed). Fate of ecosystems to ongoing environmental changes is critically dependent on dispersal and mainly on DQ in novel scenarios. We assess here the DQ, thus the multiplicative effect of germination and survival probability to the first 3 years of life, for seeds dispersed by several bird species (Turdus spp.) and carnivores (Vulpes vulpes, Martes foina) in mature woodland remnants of Spanish juniper (Juniperus thurifera) and old fields which are being colonized by this species. Results showed that DQ was similar in mature woodlands and old fields. Germination rate for seeds dispersed by carnivores (11.5%) and thrushes (9.12%) was similar, however, interacted with microhabitat suitability. Seeds dispersed by carnivores reach the maximum germination rate on shrubs (16%), whereas seeds dispersed by thrushes did on female juniper canopies (15.5) indicating that each group of dispersers performed a directed dispersal. This directional effect was diluted when survival probability was considered: thrushes selected smaller seeds which had higher mortality in the seedling stage (70%) in relation to seedlings dispersed by carnivores (40%). Overall, thrushes resulted low-quality dispersers which provided a probability or recruitment of 2.5%, while a seed dispersed by carnivores had a probability of recruitment of 6.5%. Our findings show that generalist dispersers (i.e., carnivores) can provide a higher probability of recruitment than specialized dispersers (i.e., Turdus spp.). However, generalist species are usually opportunistic dispersers as their role as seed dispersers is dependent on the availability of trophic resources and species feeding preferences. As a result, J. thurifera dispersal community is composed by two functional groups of dispersers: specialized low-quality but trustworthy dispersers and generalist high-quality but opportunistic dispersers. The maintenance of both, generalist and specialist dispersers, in the dispersal assemblage community assures the dispersal services and increases the opportunities for regeneration and colonization of degraded areas under a land-use change scenario.

Using vertebrate prey capture locations to identify cover type selection patterns of nocturnally foraging Burrowing Owls.

PubMed

Marsh, Alan; Bayne, Erin M; Wellicome, Troy I

2014-07-01

Studies of habitat selection often measure an animal's use of space via radiotelemetry or GPS-based technologies. Such data tend to be analyzed using a resource selection function, despite the fact that the actual resources acquired are typically not recorded. Without explicit proof of resource use, conclusions from RSF models are based on assumptions regarding an animal's behavior and the resources gained. Conservation initiatives are often based on space-use models, and could be detrimental to the target species if these assumptions are incorrect. We used GPS dataloggers and digital video recorders to determine precise locations where nocturnally foraging Burrowing Owls acquired food resources (vertebrate prey). We compared land cover type selection patterns using a presence-only resource selection function (RSF) to a model that incorporated prey capture locations (CRSF). We also compared net prey returns in each cover type to better measure reward relative to foraging effort. The RSF method did not reflect prey capture patterns and cover-type rankings from this model were quite different from models that used only locations where prey was known to have been obtained. Burrowing Owls successfully foraged across all cover types; however, return vs. effort models indicate that different cover types were of higher quality than those identified using resource selection functions. Conclusions about the type of resources acquired should not be made from RSF-style models without evidence that the actual resource of interest was acquired. Conservation efforts based on RSF models alone may be ineffective or detrimental to the target species if the limiting resource and where it is acquired are not properly identified.

Identification and analysis of student conceptions used to solve chemical equilibrium problems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voska, Kirk William

This study identified and quantified chemistry conceptions students use when solving chemical equilibrium problems requiring the application of Le Chatelier's principle, and explored the feasibility of designing a paper and pencil test for this purpose. It also demonstrated the utility of conditional probabilities to assess test quality. A 10-item pencil-and-paper, two-tier diagnostic instrument, the Test to Identify Student Conceptualizations (TISC) was developed and administered to 95 second-semester university general chemistry students after they received regular course instruction concerning equilibrium in homogeneous aqueous, heterogeneous aqueous, and homogeneous gaseous systems. The content validity of TISC was established through a review of TISC by a panel of experts; construct validity was established through semi-structured interviews and conditional probabilities. Nine students were then selected from a stratified random sample for interviews to validate TISC. The probability that TISC correctly identified an answer given by a student in an interview was p = .64, while the probability that TISC correctly identified a reason given by a student in an interview was p=.49. Each TISC item contained two parts. In the first part the student selected the correct answer to a problem from a set of four choices. In the second part students wrote reasons for their answer to the first part. TISC questions were designed to identify students' conceptions concerning the application of Le Chatelier's principle, the constancy of the equilibrium constant, K, and the effect of a catalyst. Eleven prevalent incorrect conceptions were identified. This study found students consistently selected correct answers more frequently (53% of the time) than they provided correct reasons (33% of the time). The association between student answers and respective reasons on each TISC item was quantified using conditional probabilities calculated from logistic regression coefficients. The probability a student provided correct reasoning (B) when the student selected a correct answer (A) ranged from P(B| A) =.32 to P(B| A) =.82. However, the probability a student selected a correct answer when they provided correct reasoning ranged from P(A| B) =.96 to P(A| B) = 1. The K-R 20 reliability for TISC was found to be.79.

Understanding the Role of Reservoir Size on Probable Maximum Precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woldemichael, A. T.; Hossain, F.

2011-12-01

This study addresses the question 'Does surface area of an artificial reservoir matter in the estimation of probable maximum precipitation (PMP) for an impounded basin?' The motivation of the study was based on the notion that the stationarity assumption that is implicit in the PMP for dam design can be undermined in the post-dam era due to an enhancement of extreme precipitation patterns by an artificial reservoir. In addition, the study lays the foundation for use of regional atmospheric models as one way to perform life cycle assessment for planned or existing dams to formulate best management practices. The American River Watershed (ARW) with the Folsom dam at the confluence of the American River was selected as the study region and the Dec-Jan 1996-97 storm event was selected for the study period. The numerical atmospheric model used for the study was the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS). First, the numerical modeling system, RAMS, was calibrated and validated with selected station and spatially interpolated precipitation data. Best combinations of parameterization schemes in RAMS were accordingly selected. Second, to mimic the standard method of PMP estimation by moisture maximization technique, relative humidity terms in the model were raised to 100% from ground up to the 500mb level. The obtained model-based maximum 72-hr precipitation values were named extreme precipitation (EP) as a distinction from the PMPs obtained by the standard methods. Third, six hypothetical reservoir size scenarios ranging from no-dam (all-dry) to the reservoir submerging half of basin were established to test the influence of reservoir size variation on EP. For the case of the ARW, our study clearly demonstrated that the assumption of stationarity that is implicit the traditional estimation of PMP can be rendered invalid to a large part due to the very presence of the artificial reservoir. Cloud tracking procedures performed on the basin also give indication of the formation of mesoscale convective systems (MCS) in the vicinity of dams/reservoirs that may have explicitly been triggered by their presence. The significance of this finding is that water resources managers need to consider the post-dam impact of water cycle and local climate due to the very reservoir and land use change triggered if efficient water resources management is desired. Future works of the study will include incorporation of the anthropogenic changes that occur as a result of the presence of dams/reservoirs in the forms of irrigation, urbanization and downstream wetland reduction. Similar hypothesis testing procedures will be applied to understand the combined effects of the reservoir size variation and anthropogenic changes in the extreme precipitation patterns.

Sampling considerations for disease surveillance in wildlife populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nusser, S.M.; Clark, W.R.; Otis, D.L.; Huang, L.

2008-01-01

Disease surveillance in wildlife populations involves detecting the presence of a disease, characterizing its prevalence and spread, and subsequent monitoring. A probability sample of animals selected from the population and corresponding estimators of disease prevalence and detection provide estimates with quantifiable statistical properties, but this approach is rarely used. Although wildlife scientists often assume probability sampling and random disease distributions to calculate sample sizes, convenience samples (i.e., samples of readily available animals) are typically used, and disease distributions are rarely random. We demonstrate how landscape-based simulation can be used to explore properties of estimators from convenience samples in relation to probability samples. We used simulation methods to model what is known about the habitat preferences of the wildlife population, the disease distribution, and the potential biases of the convenience-sample approach. Using chronic wasting disease in free-ranging deer (Odocoileus virginianus) as a simple illustration, we show that using probability sample designs with appropriate estimators provides unbiased surveillance parameter estimates but that the selection bias and coverage errors associated with convenience samples can lead to biased and misleading results. We also suggest practical alternatives to convenience samples that mix probability and convenience sampling. For example, a sample of land areas can be selected using a probability design that oversamples areas with larger animal populations, followed by harvesting of individual animals within sampled areas using a convenience sampling method.

Spatial Probability Distribution of Strata's Lithofacies and its Impacts on Land Subsidence in Huairou Emergency Water Resources Region of Beijing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Y.; Gong, H.; Zhu, L.; Guo, L.; Gao, M.; Zhou, C.

2016-12-01

Continuous over-exploitation of groundwater causes dramatic drawdown, and leads to regional land subsidence in the Huairou Emergency Water Resources region, which is located in the up-middle part of the Chaobai river basin of Beijing. Owing to the spatial heterogeneity of strata's lithofacies of the alluvial fan, ground deformation has no significant positive correlation with groundwater drawdown, and one of the challenges ahead is to quantify the spatial distribution of strata's lithofacies. The transition probability geostatistics approach provides potential for characterizing the distribution of heterogeneous lithofacies in the subsurface. Combined the thickness of clay layer extracted from the simulation, with deformation field acquired from PS-InSAR technology, the influence of strata's lithofacies on land subsidence can be analyzed quantitatively. The strata's lithofacies derived from borehole data were generalized into four categories and their probability distribution in the observe space was mined by using the transition probability geostatistics, of which clay was the predominant compressible material. Geologically plausible realizations of lithofacies distribution were produced, accounting for complex heterogeneity in alluvial plain. At a particular probability level of more than 40 percent, the volume of clay defined was 55 percent of the total volume of strata's lithofacies. This level, equaling nearly the volume of compressible clay derived from the geostatistics, was thus chosen to represent the boundary between compressible and uncompressible material. The method incorporates statistical geological information, such as distribution proportions, average lengths and juxtaposition tendencies of geological types, mainly derived from borehole data and expert knowledge, into the Markov chain model of transition probability. Some similarities of patterns were indicated between the spatial distribution of deformation field and clay layer. In the area with roughly similar water table decline, locations in the subsurface having a higher probability for the existence of compressible material occur more than that in the location with a lower probability. Such estimate of spatial probability distribution is useful to analyze the uncertainty of land subsidence.

Efficient selective catalytic reduction of NO by novel carbon-doped metal catalysts made from electroplating sludge.

PubMed

Zhang, Jia; Zhang, Jingyi; Xu, Yunfeng; Su, Huimin; Li, Xiaoman; Zhou, Ji Zhi; Qian, Guangren; Li, Li; Xu, Zhi Ping

2014-10-07

Electroplating sludges, once regarded as industrial wastes, are precious resources of various transition metals. This research has thus investigated the recycling of an electroplating sludge as a novel carbon-doped metal (Fe, Ni, Mg, Cu, and Zn) catalyst, which was different from a traditional carbon-supported metal catalyst, for effective NO selective catalytic reduction (SCR). This catalyst removed >99.7% NO at a temperature as low as 300 °C. It also removed NO steadily (>99%) with a maximum specific accumulative reduced amount (MSARA) of 3.4 mmol/g. Gas species analyses showed that NO removal was accompanied by evolving N2 and CO2. Moreover, in a wide temperature window, the sludge catalyst showed a higher CO2 selectivity (>99%) than an activated carbon-supported metal catalyst. Structure characterizations revealed that carbon-doped metal was transformed to metal oxide in the sludge catalyst after the catalytic test, with most carbon (2.33 wt %) being consumed. These observations suggest that NO removal over the sludge catalyst is a typical SCR where metals/metal oxides act as the catalytic center and carbon as the reducing reagent. Therefore, our report probably provides an opportunity for high value-added utilizations of heavy-metal wastes in mitigating atmospheric pollutions.

A proposed international watershed research network

USGS Publications Warehouse

Osterkamp, W.R.; Gray, J.R.

2003-01-01

An “International Watershed Research Network” is to be an initial project of the Sino-U. S. Centers for Soil and Water Conservation and Environmental Protection. The Network will provide a fundamental database for research personnel of the Centers, as well as of the global research community, and is viewed as an important resource for their successful operation. Efforts are under way to (a) identify and select candidate watersheds, (b) develop standards and protocols for data collection and dissemination, and (c) specify other data sources on erosion, sediment transport, hydrology, and ancillary information of probable interest and use to participants of the Centers. The initial focus of the Network will be on water-deficient areas. Candidate watersheds for the Network are yet to be determined although likely selections include the Ansai Research Station, northern China, and the Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed, Arizona, USA. The Network is to be patterned after the Vigil Network, an open-ended group of global sites and small drainage basins for which Internet-accessible geomorphic, hydrologic, and biological data are periodically collected or updated. Some types of data, using similar instruments and observation methods, will be collected at all watersheds selected for the Network. Other data from the watersheds that may reflect individual watershed characteristics and research objectives will be collected as well.

Clonal yeast biofilms can reap competitive advantages through cell differentiation without being obligatorily multicellular

PubMed Central

Hanghøj, Kristian Ebbesen; Andersen, Kaj Scherz; Boomsma, Jacobus J.

2016-01-01

How differentiation between cell types evolved is a fundamental question in biology, but few studies have explored single-gene phenotypes that mediate first steps towards division of labour with selective advantage for groups of cells. Here, we show that differential expression of the FLO11 gene produces stable fractions of Flo11+ and Flo11− cells in clonal Saccharomyces cerevisiae biofilm colonies on medium with intermediate viscosity. Differentiated Flo11+/− colonies, consisting of adhesive and non-adhesive cells, obtain a fourfold growth advantage over undifferentiated colonies by overgrowing glucose resources before depleting them, rather than depleting them while they grow as undifferentiated Flo11− colonies do. Flo11+/− colonies maintain their structure and differentiated state by switching non-adhesive cells to adhesive cells with predictable probability. Mixtures of Flo11+ and Flo11− cells from mutant strains that are unable to use this epigenetic switch mechanism produced neither integrated colonies nor growth advantages, so the condition-dependent selective advantages of differentiated FLO11 expression can only be reaped by clone-mate cells. Our results show that selection for cell differentiation in clonal eukaryotes can evolve before the establishment of obligate undifferentiated multicellularity, and without necessarily leading to more advanced organizational complexity. PMID:27807261

Animal movement in the absence of predation: environmental drivers of movement strategies in a partial migration system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bastille-Rousseau, Guillaume; Gibbs, James P.; Yackulic, Charles B.; Frair, Jacqueline L.; Cabrera, Fredy; Rousseau, Louis-Philippe

2016-01-01

Animal movement strategies including migration, dispersal, nomadism, and residency are shaped by broad-scale spatial-temporal structuring of the environment, including factors such as the degrees of spatial variation, seasonality and inter-annual predictability. Animal movement strategies, in turn, interact with the characteristics of individuals and the local distribution of resources to determine local patterns of resource selection with complex and poorly understood implications for animal fitness. Here we present a multi-scale investigation of animal movement strategies and resource selection. We consider the degree to which spatial variation, seasonality, and inter-annual predictability in resources drive migration patterns among different taxa and how movement strategies in turn shape local resource selection patterns. We focus on adult Galapagos giant tortoises Chelonoidis spp. as a model system since they display many movement strategies and evolved in the absence of predators of adults. Specifically, our analysis is based on 63 individuals among four taxa tracked on three islands over six years and almost 106 tortoise re-locations. Tortoises displayed a continuum of movement strategies from migration to sedentarism that were linked to the spatio-temporal scale and predictability of resource distributions. Movement strategies shaped patterns of resource selection. Specifically, migratory individuals displayed stronger selection toward areas where resources were more predictable among years than did non-migratory individuals, which indicates a selective advantage for migrants in seasonally structured, more predictable environments. Our analytical framework combines large-scale predictions for movement strategies, based on environmental structuring, with finer-scale analysis of space-use. Integrating different organizational levels of analysis provides a deeper understanding of the eco-evolutionary dynamics at play in the emergence and maintenance of migration and the critical role of resource predictability. Our results highlight that assessing the potential benefits of differential behavioral responses first requires an understanding of the interactions among movement strategies, resource selection and individual characteristics.

Mineral resource potential map of the Raywood Flat Roadless Areas, Riverside and San Bernardino counties, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Matti, Jonathan C.; Cox, Brett F.; Iverson, Stephen R.

1983-01-01

The area having moderate potential for base-metal resources forms a small zone in the eastern part of the recommended wilderness (A5-187). Within this zone, evidence provided by stream-sediment geochemistry suggests that crystalline bedrocks in several drainages contain concentrations of metallic elements. Because the terrain is inaccessible and covered with dense brush, most of the bedrock in the specific drainages containing the geochemical anomalies could not be examined. Thus, although we infer that mineral occurrences exist in the drainage basins, we have little data on which to base an estimate of their extent and quality. Locally, the crystalline rocks probably contain hydrothermal veins or disseminated occurrences where lead, copper, molybdenum, tin, cobalt, bismuth, and arsenic have been concentrated. However, the geochemical anomalies for these metals are small, and the stream drainages also are relatively small. Therefore, the inferred occurrences of metallic minerals probably are small scale, scattered, and low grade. There is only low probability that the inferred mineral occurrences are large scale.

Is there a metric for mineral deposit occurrence probabilities?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Drew, L.J.; Menzie, W.D.

1993-01-01

Traditionally, mineral resource assessments have been used to estimate the physical inventory of critical and strategic mineral commodities that occur in pieces of land and to assess the consequences of supply disruptions of these commodities. More recently, these assessments have been used to estimate the undiscovered mineral wealth in such pieces of land to assess the opportunity cost of using the land for purposes other than mineral production. The field of mineral resource assessment is an interdisciplinary field that draws elements from the disciplines of geology, economic geology (descriptive models), statistics and management science (grade and tonnage models), mineral economics, and operations research (computer simulation models). The purpose of this study is to assert that an occurrenceprobability metric exists that is useful in "filling out" an assessment both for areas in which only a trivial probability exists that a new mining district could be present and for areas where nontrivial probabilities exist for such districts. ?? 1993 Oxford University Press.

Supplementary health insurance as a tool for risk-selection in mandatory basic health insurance markets.

PubMed

Paolucci, Francesco; Schut, Erik; Beck, Konstantin; Gress, Stefan; Van de Voorde, Carine; Zmora, Irit

2007-04-01

As the share of supplementary health insurance (SI) in health care finance is likely to grow, SI may become an increasingly attractive tool for risk-selection in basic health insurance (BI). In this paper, we develop a conceptual framework to assess the probability that insurers will use SI for favourable risk-selection in BI. We apply our framework to five countries in which risk-selection via SI is feasible: Belgium, Germany, Israel, the Netherlands, and Switzerland. For each country, we review the available evidence of SI being used as selection device. We find that the probability that SI is and will be used for risk-selection substantially varies across countries. Finally, we discuss several strategies for policy makers to reduce the chance that SI will be used for risk-selection in BI markets.

Relationship between Adolescent Risk Preferences on a Laboratory Task and Behavioral Measures of Risk-taking

PubMed Central

Rao, Uma; Sidhartha, Tanuj; Harker, Karen R.; Bidesi, Anup S.; Chen, Li-Ann; Ernst, Monique

2010-01-01

Purpose The goal of the study was to assess individual differences in risk-taking behavior among adolescents in the laboratory. A second aim was to evaluate whether the laboratory-based risk-taking behavior is associated with other behavioral and psychological measures associated with risk-taking behavior. Methods Eighty-two adolescents with no personal history of psychiatric disorder completed a computerized decision-making task, the Wheel of Fortune (WOF). By offering choices between clearly defined probabilities and real monetary outcomes, this task assesses risk preferences when participants are confronted with potential rewards and losses. The participants also completed a variety of behavioral and psychological measures associated with risk-taking behavior. Results Performance on the task varied based on the probability and anticipated outcomes. In the winning sub-task, participants selected low probability-high magnitude reward (high-risk choice) less frequently than high probability-low magnitude reward (low-risk choice). In the losing sub-task, participants selected low probability-high magnitude loss more often than high probability-low magnitude loss. On average, the selection of probabilistic rewards was optimal and similar to performance in adults. There were, however, individual differences in performance, and one-third of the adolescents made high-risk choice more frequently than low-risk choice while selecting a reward. After controlling for sociodemographic and psychological variables, high-risk choice on the winning task predicted “real-world” risk-taking behavior and substance-related problems. Conclusions These findings highlight individual differences in risk-taking behavior. Preliminary data on face validity of the WOF task suggest that it might be a valuable laboratory tool for studying behavioral and neurobiological processes associated with risk-taking behavior in adolescents. PMID:21257113

Quasar probabilities and redshifts from WISE mid-IR through GALEX UV photometry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DiPompeo, M. A.; Bovy, J.; Myers, A. D.; Lang, D.

2015-09-01

Extreme deconvolution (XD) of broad-band photometric data can both separate stars from quasars and generate probability density functions for quasar redshifts, while incorporating flux uncertainties and missing data. Mid-infrared photometric colours are now widely used to identify hot dust intrinsic to quasars, and the release of all-sky WISE data has led to a dramatic increase in the number of IR-selected quasars. Using forced photometry on public WISE data at the locations of Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) point sources, we incorporate this all-sky data into the training of the XDQSOz models originally developed to select quasars from optical photometry. The combination of WISE and SDSS information is far more powerful than SDSS alone, particularly at z > 2. The use of SDSS+WISE photometry is comparable to the use of SDSS+ultraviolet+near-IR data. We release a new public catalogue of 5537 436 (total; 3874 639 weighted by probability) potential quasars with probability PQSO > 0.2. The catalogue includes redshift probabilities for all objects. We also release an updated version of the publicly available set of codes to calculate quasar and redshift probabilities for various combinations of data. Finally, we demonstrate that this method of selecting quasars using WISE data is both more complete and efficient than simple WISE colour-cuts, especially at high redshift. Our fits verify that above z ˜ 3 WISE colours become bluer than the standard cuts applied to select quasars. Currently, the analysis is limited to quasars with optical counterparts, and thus cannot be used to find highly obscured quasars that WISE colour-cuts identify in significant numbers.

UNCOMPAHGRE PRIMITIVE AREA, COLORADO.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Luedke, R.G.; Sheridan, M.J.

1984-01-01

A mineral-resource study was made of that part of the Uncompahgre National Forest, Colorado constituting the officially designated primitive area. Because the primitive area and its southern border zone contained operating mines producing gold, silver, copper, lead, zinc, and minor amounts of a few other metals, and had been a part of a highly productive mining region, the area was concluded to have large segments of both probable and substantiated mineral-resource potential. No energy resources were identified in the study.

ALPINE LAKES WILDERNESS STUDY AREA, WASHINGTON.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gualtieri, J.L.; Thurber, H.K.

1984-01-01

The Alpine Lakes Wilderness study area, located in the central part of the Cascade Mountains of Washington was examined for its mineral-resource potential. On the basis of that study the area was found to contain deposits of copper, other base metals, and gold and silver. Probable or substantiated mineral-resource potential exists for these commodities in the southwest-central, northwest, and southeast-central parts of the area. The geologic terrane precludes the occurrence of fossil fuel resources.

Resource Loss Moderates the Association Between Child Abuse and Current PTSD Symptoms Among Women in Primary-Care Settings.

PubMed

Costa, Eleonora C V; Guimarães, Sara; Ferreira, Domingos; Pereira, M Graça

2016-09-01

This study examined if abuse during childhood, rape in adulthood, and loss of resources predict a woman's probability of reporting symptoms of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), and whether resource loss moderates the association between reporting childhood abuse and PTSD symptoms. The sample included 767 women and was collected in publicly funded primary-care settings. Women who reported having been abused during childhood also reported more resource loss, more acute PTSD symptoms, and having suffered more adult rape than those who reported no childhood abuse. Hierarchical logistic regression yielded a two-variable additive model in which child abuse and adult rape predict the probability of reporting or not any PTSD symptoms, explaining 59.7% of the variance. Women abused as children were 1 to 2 times more likely to report PTSD symptoms, with sexual abuse during childhood contributing most strongly to this result. Similarly, women reporting adult rape were almost twice as likely to report symptoms of PTSD as those not reporting it. Resource loss was unexpectedly not among the predictors but a moderation analysis showed that such loss moderated the association between child abuse and current PTSD symptoms, with resource loss increasing the number and severity of PTSD symptoms in women who also reported childhood abuse. The findings highlight the importance of early assessment and intervention in providing mental health care to abused, neglected, and impoverished women to help them prevent and reverse resource loss and revictimization.

BOULDER-PIONEER WILDERNESS STUDY AREA, IDAHO.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Simons, Frank S.; Tuchek, Ernest T.

1984-01-01

A mineral-resource survey of the Boulder-Pioneer Wilderness study area in the Pioneer and Boulder Mountains of south-central Idaho, was made. The area has demonstrated resources of about 1. 7 million tons of lead-zinc-silver ore, mostly in the Phi Kappa mine, and an additional 2. 5 million tons of demonstrated resources in areas of substantiated potential for these metals and for tungsten, molybdenum, and fluorite. The survey indicates substantiated resource potential in eight areas and probable mineral-resource potential in seven. Mineral commodities of greatest intertest include tungsten, copper, lead, zinc, silver, gold, molybdenum, vanadium, and barite. There is little likelihood for the occurrence of oil, gas, coal, or geothermal resources.

System complexity as a measure of safe capacity for the emergency department.

PubMed

France, Daniel J; Levin, Scott

2006-11-01

System complexity is introduced as a new measure of system state for the emergency department (ED). In its original form, the measure quantifies the uncertainty of demands on system resources. For application in the ED, the measure is being modified to quantify both workload and uncertainty to produce a single integrated measure of system state. Complexity is quantified using an information-theoretic or entropic approach developed in manufacturing and operations research. In its original form, complexity is calculated on the basis of four system parameters: 1) the number of resources (clinicians and processing entities such as radiology and laboratory systems), 2) the number of possible work states for each resource, 3) the probability that a resource is in a particular work state, and 4) the probability of queue changes (i.e., where a queue is defined by the number of patients or patient orders being managed by a resource) during a specified time period. An example is presented to demonstrate how complexity is calculated and interpreted for a simple system composed of three resources (i.e., emergency physicians) managing varying patient loads. The example shows that variation in physician work states and patient queues produces different scores of complexity for each physician. It also illustrates how complexity and workload differ. System complexity is a viable and technically feasible measurement for monitoring and managing surge capacity in the ED.

Faithful Transfer Arbitrary Pure States with Mixed Resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, Ming-Xing; Li, Lin; Ma, Song-Ya; Chen, Xiu-Bo; Yang, Yi-Xian

2013-09-01

In this paper, we show that some special mixed quantum resource experience the same property of pure entanglement such as Bell state for quantum teleportation. It is shown that one mixed state and three bits of classical communication cost can be used to teleport one unknown qubit compared with two bits via pure resources. The schemes are easily implement with model physical techniques. Moreover, these resources are also optimal and typical for faithfully remotely prepare an arbitrary qubit, two-qubit and three-qubit states with mixed quantum resources. Our schemes are completed as same as those with pure quantum entanglement resources except only 1 bit additional classical communication cost required. The success probability is independent of the form of the mixed resources.

Coliform species recovered from untreated surface water and drinking water by the membrane filter, standard, and modified most-probable-number techniques.

PubMed Central

Evans, T M; LeChevallier, M W; Waarvick, C E; Seidler, R J

1981-01-01

The species of total coliform bacteria isolated from drinking water and untreated surface water by the membrane filter (MF), the standard most-probable-number (S-MPN), and modified most-probable-number (M-MPN) techniques were compared. Each coliform detection technique selected for a different profile of coliform species from both types of water samples. The MF technique indicated that Citrobacter freundii was the most common coliform species in water samples. However, the fermentation tube techniques displayed selectivity towards the isolation of Escherichia coli and Klebsiella. The M-MPN technique selected for more C. freundii and Enterobacter spp. from untreated surface water samples and for more Enterobacter and Klebsiella spp. from drinking water samples than did the S-MPN technique. The lack of agreement between the number of coliforms detected in a water sample by the S-MPN, M-MPN, and MF techniques was a result of the selection for different coliform species by the various techniques. PMID:7013706

Assessment of potential oil and gas resources in source rocks of the Alaska North Slope, 2012

USGS Publications Warehouse

Houseknecht, David W.; Rouse, William A.; Garrity, Christopher P.; Whidden, Katherine J.; Dumoulin, Julie A.; Schenk, Christopher J.; Charpentier, Ronald R.; Cook, Troy A.; Gaswirth, Stephanie B.; Kirschbaum, Mark A.; Pollastro, Richard M.

2012-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey estimated potential, technically recoverable oil and gas resources for source rocks of the Alaska North Slope. Estimates (95-percent to 5-percent probability) range from zero to 2 billion barrels of oil and from zero to nearly 80 trillion cubic feet of gas.

Global mega forces: Implications for the future of natural resources

Treesearch

George H. Kubik

2012-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to provide an overview of leading global mega forces and their importance to the future of natural resource decisionmaking, policy development, and operation. Global mega forces are defined as a combination of major trends, preferences, and probabilities that come together to produce the potential for future high-impact outcomes. These...

Sensitivity of alpine and subalpine lakes to acidification from atmospheric deposition in Grand Teton National Park and Yellowstone National Park, Wyoming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nanus, Leora; Campbell, Donald H.; Williams, Mark W.

2005-01-01

The sensitivity of 400 lakes in Grand Teton and Yellowstone National Parks to acidification from atmospheric deposition of nitrogen and sulfur was estimated based on statistical relations between acid-neutralizing capacity concentrations and basin characteristics to aid in the design of a long-term monitoring plan for Outstanding Natural Resource Waters. Acid-neutralizing capacity concentrations that were measured at 52 lakes in Grand Teton and 23 lakes in Yellowstone during synoptic surveys were used to calibrate the statistical models. Three acid-neutralizing capacity concentration bins (bins) were selected that are within the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency criteria of sensitive to acidification; less than 50 microequivalents per liter (?eq/L) (0-50), less than 100 ?eq/L (0-100), and less than 200 ?eq/L (0-200). The development of discrete bins enables resource managers to have the ability to change criteria based on the focus of their study. Basin-characteristic information was derived from Geographic Information System data sets. The explanatory variables that were considered included bedrock type, basin slope, basin aspect, basin elevation, lake area, basin area, inorganic nitrogen deposition, sulfate deposition, hydrogen ion deposition, basin precipitation, soil type, and vegetation type. A logistic regression model was developed and applied to lake basins greater than 1 hectare in Grand Teton (n = 106) and Yellowstone (n = 294). A higher percentage of lakes in Grand Teton than in Yellowstone were predicted to be sensitive to atmospheric deposition in all three bins. For Grand Teton, 7 percent of lakes had a greater than 60-percent probability of having acid-neutralizing capacity concentrations in the 0-50 bin, 36 percent of lakes had a greater than 60-percent probability of having acid-neutralizing capacity concentrations in the 0-100 bin, and 59 percent of lakes had a greater than 60-percent probability of having acid-neutralizing capacity concentrations in the 0-200 bin. The elevation of the lake outlet and the area of the basin with northeast aspects were determined to be statistically significant and were used as the explanatory variables in the multivariate logistic regression model for the 0-100 bin. For Yellowstone, results indicated that 13 percent of lakes had a greater than 60-percent probability of having acid-neutralizing capacity concentrations in the 0-100 bin, and 27 percent of lakes had a greater than 60-percent probability of having acid-neutralizing capacity concentrations in the 0-200 bin. Only the elevation of the lake outlet was determined to be statistically significant and was used as the explanatory variable for the 0-100 bin. The lakes that exceeded 60-percent probability of having an acid-neutralizing capacity concentration in the 0-100 bin, and therefore had the greatest sensitivity to acidification from atmospheric deposition, are located at elevations greater than 2,790 meters in Grand Teton, and greater than 2,590 meters in Yellowstone.

Condition-dependent trade-offs between sexual traits, body condition and immunity: the effect of novel habitats.

PubMed

Iglesias-Carrasco, Maider; Head, Megan L; Jennions, Michael D; Cabido, Carlos

2016-06-21

The optimal allocation of resources to sexual signals and other life history traits is usually dependent on an individual's condition, while variation in the expression of sexual traits across environments depends on the combined effects of local adaptation, mean condition, and phenotypic responses to environment-specific cues that affect resource allocation. A clear contrast can often be drawn between natural habitats and novel habitats, such as forest plantations and urban areas. In some species, males seem to change their sexual signals in these novel environments, but why this occurs and how it affects signal reliability is still poorly understood. The relative size of sexual traits and level of immune responses were significantly lower for male palmate newts Lissotriton helveticus caught in pine and eucalyptus plantations compared to those caught in native forests, but there was no habitat-dependent difference in body condition (n = 18 sites, 382 males). The reliability with which sexual traits signalled body condition and immune responses was the same in all three habitats. Finally, we conducted a mesocosm experiment in which males were maintained in pine, eucalypt or oak infused water for 21 days. Males in plantation-like water (pine or eucalypt) showed significantly lower immune responses but no change in body condition. This matches the pattern seen for field-caught males. Unlike field-caught males, however, there was no relationship between water type and relative sexual trait size. Pine and eucalyptus plantations are likely to be detrimental to male palmate newt because they are associated with reduced immune function and smaller sexual traits. This could be because ecological aspects of these novel habitats, such as high water turbidity or changes in male-male competition, drive selection for reduced investment into sexual traits. However, it is more probable that there are differences in the ease of acquisition, hence optimal allocation, of resources among habitats. Our mesocosm experiment also provides some evidence that water toxicity is a causal factor. Our findings offer insights into how plantations affect amphibian life histories, and how novel habitats might generate long-term selection for new resource allocation strategies in native species.

Selection of Electronic Resources.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Weathers, Barbara

1998-01-01

Discusses the impact of electronic resources on collection development; selection of CD-ROMs, (platform, speed, video and sound, networking capability, installation and maintenance); selection of laser disks; and Internet evaluation (accuracy of content, authority, objectivity, currency, technical characteristics). Lists Web sites for evaluating…

Short-term prey field lability constrains individual specialisation in resource selection and foraging site fidelity in a marine predator.

PubMed

Courbin, Nicolas; Besnard, Aurélien; Péron, Clara; Saraux, Claire; Fort, Jérôme; Perret, Samuel; Tornos, Jérémy; Grémillet, David

2018-04-16

Spatio-temporally stable prey distributions coupled with individual foraging site fidelity are predicted to favour individual resource specialisation. Conversely, predators coping with dynamic prey distributions should diversify their individual diet and/or shift foraging areas to increase net intake. We studied individual specialisation in Scopoli's shearwaters (Calonectris diomedea) from the highly dynamic Western Mediterranean, using daily prey distributions together with resource selection, site fidelity and trophic-level analyses. As hypothesised, we found dietary diversification, low foraging site fidelity and almost no individual specialisation in resource selection. Crucially, shearwaters switched daily foraging tactics, selecting areas with contrasting prey of varying trophic levels. Overall, information use and plastic resource selection of individuals with reduced short-term foraging site fidelity allow predators to overcome prey field lability. Our study is an essential step towards a better understanding of individual responses to enhanced environmental stochasticity driven by global changes, and of pathways favouring population persistence. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Cluster State Quantum Computing

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-12-01

probability that the desired target gate ATar has been faithfully implemented on the computational modes given a successful measurement of the ancilla...modes: () = �(†)� 2 2(†) , (3) since Tr ( ATar † ATar )=2Mc for a properly normalized target gate. As we are interested...optimization method we have developed maximizes the success probability S for a given target transformation ATar , for given ancilla resources, and for a

Altering spatial priority maps via statistical learning of target selection and distractor filtering.

PubMed

Ferrante, Oscar; Patacca, Alessia; Di Caro, Valeria; Della Libera, Chiara; Santandrea, Elisa; Chelazzi, Leonardo

2018-05-01

The cognitive system has the capacity to learn and make use of environmental regularities - known as statistical learning (SL), including for the implicit guidance of attention. For instance, it is known that attentional selection is biased according to the spatial probability of targets; similarly, changes in distractor filtering can be triggered by the unequal spatial distribution of distractors. Open questions remain regarding the cognitive/neuronal mechanisms underlying SL of target selection and distractor filtering. Crucially, it is unclear whether the two processes rely on shared neuronal machinery, with unavoidable cross-talk, or they are fully independent, an issue that we directly addressed here. In a series of visual search experiments, participants had to discriminate a target stimulus, while ignoring a task-irrelevant salient distractor (when present). We systematically manipulated spatial probabilities of either one or the other stimulus, or both. We then measured performance to evaluate the direct effects of the applied contingent probability distribution (e.g., effects on target selection of the spatial imbalance in target occurrence across locations) as well as its indirect or "transfer" effects (e.g., effects of the same spatial imbalance on distractor filtering across locations). By this approach, we confirmed that SL of both target and distractor location implicitly bias attention. Most importantly, we described substantial indirect effects, with the unequal spatial probability of the target affecting filtering efficiency and, vice versa, the unequal spatial probability of the distractor affecting target selection efficiency across locations. The observed cross-talk demonstrates that SL of target selection and distractor filtering are instantiated via (at least partly) shared neuronal machinery, as further corroborated by strong correlations between direct and indirect effects at the level of individual participants. Our findings are compatible with the notion that both kinds of SL adjust the priority of specific locations within attentional priority maps of space. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Randomized trial of computerized quantitative pretest probability in low-risk chest pain patients: effect on safety and resource use.

PubMed

Kline, Jeffrey A; Zeitouni, Raghid A; Hernandez-Nino, Jackeline; Jones, Alan E

2009-06-01

We hypothesize that the presentation of a quantitative pretest probability of acute coronary syndrome would safely reduce unnecessary resource use in low-risk emergency department (ED) chest pain patients. Randomized controlled trial of adult patients with chest pain paired with their clinicians. Patients had neither obvious evidence of acute coronary syndrome nor obvious other reason for admission. Clinicans provided their unstructured point estimate for pretest probability before randomization. Clinicans and patients in the intervention group received a printout of pretest probability of acute coronary syndrome result displayed numerically and graphically. Controls received no printout. Patients were followed for 45 days for predefined criteria of acute coronary syndrome and efficacy endpoints. Endpoints were compared between groups, with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for differences. Four hundred were enrolled, and 31 were excluded for cocaine use or elopement from care. The mean pretest probability estimates of acute coronary syndrome were 4 (SD 5%) from clinicians and 4 (SD 6%) from the computer. Safety and efficacy endpoints for controls (n=185) versus intervention patients (n=184) were as follows: (1) delayed or missed diagnosis of acute coronary syndrome: 1 of 185 versus 0 of 184 (95% CI for difference -2.8% to 15.0%); (2) hospital admission with no significant cardiovascular diagnosis, 11% versus 5% (-0.2% to 11%); (3) thoracic imaging imparting greater than 5 mSv radiation with a negative result, 20% versus 9% (95% CI for difference = 3.8% to 18.0%); (4) median length of stay, 11.4 hours versus 9.2 hours (95% CI for difference = -2.9 to 7.6 hours); (5) reported feeling "very satisfied" with clinician explanation of problem on follow-up survey, 38% versus 49% (95% CI for difference = 0.9% to 21.0%); (6) readmitted within 7 days, 11% versus 4% (95% CI for difference = 2.5% to 13.2%). Presentation of a quantitative estimate of the pretest probability of acute coronary syndrome to clinicians and low-risk ED chest pain patients was associated with reduced resource use, without evidence of increased rate of premature discharge of patients with acute coronary syndrome.

Formal properties of the probability of fixation: identities, inequalities and approximations.

PubMed

McCandlish, David M; Epstein, Charles L; Plotkin, Joshua B

2015-02-01

The formula for the probability of fixation of a new mutation is widely used in theoretical population genetics and molecular evolution. Here we derive a series of identities, inequalities and approximations for the exact probability of fixation of a new mutation under the Moran process (equivalent results hold for the approximate probability of fixation under the Wright-Fisher process, after an appropriate change of variables). We show that the logarithm of the fixation probability has particularly simple behavior when the selection coefficient is measured as a difference of Malthusian fitnesses, and we exploit this simplicity to derive inequalities and approximations. We also present a comprehensive comparison of both existing and new approximations for the fixation probability, highlighting those approximations that induce a reversible Markov chain when used to describe the dynamics of evolution under weak mutation. To demonstrate the power of these results, we consider the classical problem of determining the total substitution rate across an ensemble of biallelic loci and prove that, at equilibrium, a strict majority of substitutions are due to drift rather than selection. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Time-Dependent Quantum Dynamics Study of the H2 + CH3 yields H + CH4 Reaction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Dunyou; Kwak, Dochan (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

We present a time-dependent wave-packet propagation calculation for the H2 + CH3 yields H + CH4 reaction in six degrees of freedom and for zero total angular momentum. Initial state selected reaction probability for different initial rotational-vibrational states are presented in this study. The cumulative reaction probability (CRP) is obtained by summing over initial-state-selected reaction probability. The energy-shift approximation to account for the contribution of degrees of freedom missing in the 6D calculation is employed to obtain an approximate full-dimensional CRP. Thermal rate constant is compared with different experiment results.

Streamflow characteristics at streamgages in northern Afghanistan and selected locations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Olson, Scott A.; Williams-Sether, Tara

2010-01-01

Statistical summaries of streamflow data for 79 historical streamgages in Northern Afghanistan and other selected historical streamgages are presented in this report. The summaries for each streamgage include (1) station description, (2) graph of the annual mean discharge for the period of record, (3) statistics of monthly and annual mean discharges, (4) monthly and annual flow duration, (5) probability of occurrence of annual high discharges, (6) probability of occurrence of annual low discharges, (7) probability of occurrence of seasonal low discharges, (8) annual peak discharges for the period of record, and (9) monthly and annual mean discharges for the period of record.

Review of the use of pretest probability for molecular testing in non-small cell lung cancer and overview of new mutations that may affect clinical practice

PubMed Central

Martin, Petra; Leighl, Natasha B.

2017-01-01

This article considers the use of pretest probability in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and how its use in EGFR testing has helped establish clinical guidelines on selecting patients for EGFR testing. With an ever-increasing number of molecular abnormalities being identified and often limited tissue available for testing, the use of pretest probability will need to be increasingly considered in the future for selecting investigations and treatments in patients. In addition we review new mutations that have the potential to affect clinical practice. PMID:28607579

Development of a Resource Manager Framework for Adaptive Beamformer Selection

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-12-27

DEVELOPMENT OF A RESOURCE MANAGER FRAMEWORK FOR ADAPTIVE BEAMFORMER SELECTION DISSERTATION Jeremy P. Stringer, Major, USAF AFIT-ENG-DS-13-D-01...Force, the United States Department of Defense or the United States Government. AFIT-ENG-DS-13-D-01 DEVELOPMENT OF A RESOURCE MANAGER FRAMEWORK FOR...ADAPTIVE BEAMFORMER SELECTION DISSERTATION Presented to the Faculty Graduate School of Engineering and Management Air Force Institute of Technology Air

Differentiated protection services with failure probability guarantee for workflow-based applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhong, Yaoquan; Guo, Wei; Jin, Yaohui; Sun, Weiqiang; Hu, Weisheng

2010-12-01

A cost-effective and service-differentiated provisioning strategy is very desirable to service providers so that they can offer users satisfactory services, while optimizing network resource allocation. Providing differentiated protection services to connections for surviving link failure has been extensively studied in recent years. However, the differentiated protection services for workflow-based applications, which consist of many interdependent tasks, have scarcely been studied. This paper investigates the problem of providing differentiated services for workflow-based applications in optical grid. In this paper, we develop three differentiated protection services provisioning strategies which can provide security level guarantee and network-resource optimization for workflow-based applications. The simulation demonstrates that these heuristic algorithms provide protection cost-effectively while satisfying the applications' failure probability requirements.

Artificial pheromone for path selection by a foraging swarm of robots.

PubMed

Campo, Alexandre; Gutiérrez, Alvaro; Nouyan, Shervin; Pinciroli, Carlo; Longchamp, Valentin; Garnier, Simon; Dorigo, Marco

2010-11-01

Foraging robots involved in a search and retrieval task may create paths to navigate faster in their environment. In this context, a swarm of robots that has found several resources and created different paths may benefit strongly from path selection. Path selection enhances the foraging behavior by allowing the swarm to focus on the most profitable resource with the possibility for unused robots to stop participating in the path maintenance and to switch to another task. In order to achieve path selection, we implement virtual ants that lay artificial pheromone inside a network of robots. Virtual ants are local messages transmitted by robots; they travel along chains of robots and deposit artificial pheromone on the robots that are literally forming the chain and indicating the path. The concentration of artificial pheromone on the robots allows them to decide whether they are part of a selected path. We parameterize the mechanism with a mathematical model and provide an experimental validation using a swarm of 20 real robots. We show that our mechanism favors the selection of the closest resource is able to select a new path if a selected resource becomes unavailable and selects a newly detected and better resource when possible. As robots use very simple messages and behaviors, the system would be particularly well suited for swarms of microrobots with minimal abilities.

Quantum Dynamics Study of the Isotopic Effect on Capture Reactions: HD, D2 + CH3

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Dunyou; Kwak, Dochan (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

Time-dependent wave-packet-propagation calculations are reported for the isotopic reactions, HD + CH3 and D2 + CH3, in six degrees of freedom and for zero total angular momentum. Initial state selected reaction probabilities for different initial rotational-vibrational states are presented in this study. This study shows that excitations of the HD(D2) enhances the reactivities; whereas the excitations of the CH3 umbrella mode have the opposite effects. This is consistent with the reaction of H2 + CH3. The comparison of these three isotopic reactions also shows the isotopic effects in the initial-state-selected reaction probabilities. The cumulative reaction probabilities (CRP) are obtained by summing over initial-state-selected reaction probabilities. The energy-shift approximation to account for the contribution of degrees of freedom missing in the six dimensionality calculation is employed to obtain approximate full-dimensional CRPs. The rate constant comparison shows H2 + CH3 reaction has the biggest reactivity, then HD + CH3, and D2 + CH3 has the smallest.

Selected Resources and Bibliography

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

New Directions for Higher Education, 2011

2011-01-01

This chapter provides an annotated bibliography of resources pertaining to international branch campuses (IBCs). This collection of references has been selected to represent the breadth of emerging scholarship on cross-border higher education and is intended to provide further resources on a range of concerns surrounding cross-border higher…

Peak-flow frequency analyses and results based on data through water year 2011 for selected streamflow-gaging stations in or near Montana: Chapter C in Montana StreamStats

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sando, Steven K.; McCarthy, Peter M.; Dutton, DeAnn M.

2016-04-05

Chapter C of this Scientific Investigations Report documents results from a study by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Montana Department of Transportation and the Montana Department of Natural Resources, to provide an update of statewide peak-flow frequency analyses and results for Montana. The purpose of this report chapter is to present peak-flow frequency analyses and results for 725 streamflow-gaging stations in or near Montana based on data through water year 2011. The 725 streamflow-gaging stations included in this study represent nearly all streamflowgaging stations in Montana (plus some from adjacent states or Canadian Provinces) that have at least 10 years of peak-flow records through water year 2011. For 29 of the 725 streamflow-gaging stations, peak-flow frequency analyses and results are reported for both unregulated and regulated conditions. Thus, peak-flow frequency analyses and results are reported for a total of 754 analyses. Estimates of peak-flow magnitudes for 66.7-, 50-, 42.9-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probabilities are reported. These annual exceedance probabilities correspond to 1.5-, 2-, 2.33-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, 200-, and 500-year recurrence intervals.

Optimal Time-Resource Allocation for Energy-Efficient Physical Activity Detection

PubMed Central

Thatte, Gautam; Li, Ming; Lee, Sangwon; Emken, B. Adar; Annavaram, Murali; Narayanan, Shrikanth; Spruijt-Metz, Donna; Mitra, Urbashi

2011-01-01

The optimal allocation of samples for physical activity detection in a wireless body area network for health-monitoring is considered. The number of biometric samples collected at the mobile device fusion center, from both device-internal and external Bluetooth heterogeneous sensors, is optimized to minimize the transmission power for a fixed number of samples, and to meet a performance requirement defined using the probability of misclassification between multiple hypotheses. A filter-based feature selection method determines an optimal feature set for classification, and a correlated Gaussian model is considered. Using experimental data from overweight adolescent subjects, it is found that allocating a greater proportion of samples to sensors which better discriminate between certain activity levels can result in either a lower probability of error or energy-savings ranging from 18% to 22%, in comparison to equal allocation of samples. The current activity of the subjects and the performance requirements do not significantly affect the optimal allocation, but employing personalized models results in improved energy-efficiency. As the number of samples is an integer, an exhaustive search to determine the optimal allocation is typical, but computationally expensive. To this end, an alternate, continuous-valued vector optimization is derived which yields approximately optimal allocations and can be implemented on the mobile fusion center due to its significantly lower complexity. PMID:21796237

Foster home placements and the probability of family reunification: Does licensing matter?

PubMed

Ryan, Joseph P; Perron, Brian E; Moore, Andrew; Victor, Bryan; Evangelist, Michael

2016-09-01

The concept of foster care has been widely studied in child welfare. The literature is well developed with regard to the risk of initial placement, length of stay in care, placement stability, exits to permanency, and emancipation. Yet, the literature is woefully underdeveloped when it comes to understanding if variations in the types and characteristics of foster homes impact important child welfare outcomes. The current study utilizes entry cohorts pulled from statewide administrative data (N=17,960) to investigate the association between types of foster care and the probability of reunification. We focus specifically on the licensing status of foster homes. Reflecting federal benchmarks, we examined the odds of reunification at one- and two-year intervals. Propensity score analysis was used to reduce selection bias. Adjusted logistic regression models revealed that youth placed in licensed relative care (LRC) homes were the least likely to achieve reunification compared with youth placed in licensed non-relative care (LNC) homes and unlicensed relative care (URC) homes. Conversely, youth placed in URC homes were more likely to achieve reunification as compared with youth placed in LRC and LNC homes. These findings will help states to efficiently target scarce resources to specific types of foster homes that may be impacting federal reunification benchmarks. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Nonmathematical models for evolution of altruism, and for group selection (peck order-territoriality-ant colony-dual-determinant model-tri-determinant model).

PubMed

Darlington, P J

1972-02-01

Mathematical biologists have failed to produce a satisfactory general model for evolution of altruism, i.e., of behaviors by which "altruists" benefit other individuals but not themselves; kin selection does not seem to be a sufficient explanation of nonreciprocal altruism. Nonmathematical (but mathematically acceptable) models are now proposed for evolution of negative altruism in dual-determinant and of positive altruism in tri-determinant systems. Peck orders, territorial systems, and an ant society are analyzed as examples. In all models, evolution is primarily by individual selection, probably supplemented by group selection. Group selection is differential extinction of populations. It can act only on populations preformed by selection at the individual level, but can either cancel individual selective trends (effecting evolutionary homeostasis) or supplement them; its supplementary effect is probably increasingly important in the evolution of increasingly organized populations.

Predictors of posttraumatic stress-related impairment in victims of terrorism and ongoing conflict in Israel.

PubMed

Chipman, Katie J; Palmieri, Patrick A; Canetti, Daphna; Johnson, Robert J; Hobfoll, Stevan E

2011-05-01

The present study aimed to investigate the prevalence of self-reported impairment (Criterion F) as part of a probable DSM-IV diagnosis of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) within a sample of 1001 Israeli Jews subjected to direct and indirect exposure to rocket attacks. Further, the present study aimed to investigate predictors of endorsing posttraumatic stress (PTS)-related impairment, with specific attention to the influence of resources and resource loss. Data were collected via phone surveys. Twenty-nine percent of the sample reported impairment; however, only 19% of those reporting impairment met criteria for probable PTSD. Logistic regression results indicated that psychosocial resource losses, experiencing personal injury or injury to a family member or close friend, experiencing other major life stressors in the past year, having poorer health, having significant sleep difficulty, and having traditional (moderate) religious practices, significantly predicted PTS-related impairment. Results suggest that addressing impairment only within the context of full PTSD misses many individuals experiencing significant PTS-related impairment.

GREAT I: A Study of the Upper Mississippi River. Volume 1. Main Report

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-09-01

management of the river system and its interrelated Ensure necessary capability to components within the river corridor . maintain the total river...stem corridor will is a complex resource. It means many probably directly modify many or all things to many people. To call it a other components of the...resource in the "resource" implies that it is some- main stem corridor , Any description thing which man can draw on to satisfy of the Upper

NORTH ABSAROKA STUDY AREA, MONTANA.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Elliott, J.E.; Stotelmeyer, R.B.

1984-01-01

A mineral survey of the North Absaroka study area in Montana was conducted. The results of this survey indicate that parts of the area are extensively mineralized and that the area has potential for resources of gold, silver, copper, molybdenum, nickel, lead, zinc, platinum-group metals, uranium, iron, manganese, chromium, tungsten, and arsenic. Six areas of probable and substantiated mineral-resource potential were identified. The nature of the geologic terrain indicates that there is little likelihood for occurrence of oil, gas, coal, or geothermal resources.

BREAD LOAF ROADLESS AREA, VERMONT.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Slack, John F.; Bitar, Richard F.

1984-01-01

On the basis of mineral-resource survey the Bread Loaf Roadless Area, Vermont, is considered to have probable resource potential for the occurrence of volcanogenic massive sulfide deposits of copper, zinc, and lead, particularly in the north and northeastern section of the roadless area. Nonmetallic commodities include minor deposits of sand and gravel, and abundant rock suitable for crushing. However, large amounts of these materials in more accessible locations are available outside the roadless area. A possibility exists that oil or natural gas resources may be present at great depth.

Coexistence and community structure in a consumer resource model with implicit stoichiometry.

PubMed

Orlando, Paul A; Brown, Joel S; Wise, David H

2012-09-01

We combine stoichiometry theory and optimal foraging theory into the MacArthur consumer-resource model. This generates predictions for diet choice, coexistence, and community structure of heterotroph communities. Tradeoffs in consumer resource-garnering traits influence community outcomes. With scarce resources, consumers forage opportunistically for complementary resources and may coexist via tradeoffs in resource encounter rates. In contrast to single currency models, stoichiometry permits multiple equilibria. These alternative stable states occur when tradeoffs in resource encounter rates are stronger than tradeoffs in elemental conversion efficiencies. With abundant resources consumers exhibit partially selective diets for essential resources and may coexist via tradeoffs in elemental conversion efficiencies. These results differ from single currency models, where adaptive diet selection is either opportunistic or selective. Interestingly, communities composed of efficient consumers share many of the same properties as communities based on substitutable resources. However, communities composed of relatively inefficient consumers behave similarly to plant communities as characterized by Tilman's consumer resource theory. The results of our model indicate that the effects of stoichiometry theory on community ecology are dependent upon both consumer foraging behavior and the nature of resource garnering tradeoffs. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Selected Educational Resources in Interpersonal Communication.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yamauchi, Joanne S.

1974-01-01

The rapid growth in the field of interpersonal communication is reflected in both the introduction of courses dealing with the personalized involvement of people with each other and the prolific output of related educational resources. Specific representative samples of current resource selections include four texts dealing solely with…

Gerontology: A Bibliography of Selected Resources.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bowen, Patricia R., Comp.; McHorney, Colleen A., Comp.

This selected bibliography of resources on gerontology, reflecting the holdings of the Western Kentucky University Libraries, is divided into five sections: (1) books and monographs; (2) educational resources center; (3) government documents; (4) microfilms; and (5) periodicals. The table of contents contains an alphabetical listing of all Library…

[Challenges and strategies of drug innovation].

PubMed

Guo, Zong-Ru; Zhao, Hong-Yu

2013-07-01

Drug research involves scientific discovery, technological inventions and product development. This multiple dimensional effort embodies both high risk and high reward and is considered one of the most complicated human activities. Prior to the initiation of a program, an in-depth analysis of "what to do" and "how to do it" must be conducted. On the macro level, market prospects, capital required, risk assessment, necessary human resources, etc. need to be evaluated critically. For execution, drug candidates need to be optimized in multiple properties such as potency, selectivity, pharmacokinetics, safety, formulation, etc., all with the constraint of finite amount of time and resources, to maximize the probability of success in clinical development. Drug discovery is enormously complicated, both in terms of technological innovation and organizing capital and other resources. A deep understanding of the complexity of drug research and our competitive edge is critical for success. Our unique government-enterprise-academia system represents a distinct advantage. As a new player, we have not heavily invested in any particular discovery paradigm, which allows us to select the optimal approach with little organizational burden. Virtue R&D model using CROs has gained momentum lately and China is a global leader in CRO market. Essentially all technological support for drug discovery can be found in China, which greatly enables domestic R&D efforts. The information technology revolution ensures the globalization of drug discovery knowledge, which has bridged much of the gap between China and the developed countries. The blockbuster model and the target-centric drug discovery paradigm have overlooked the research in several important fields such as injectable drugs, orphan drugs, and following high quality therapeutic leads, etc. Prejudice against covalent ligands, prodrugs, nondrug-like ligands can also be taken advantage of to find novel medicines. This article will discuss the current challenges and future opportunities for drug innovation in China.

Construction of a Calibrated Probabilistic Classification Catalog: Application to 50k Variable Sources in the All-Sky Automated Survey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richards, Joseph W.; Starr, Dan L.; Miller, Adam A.; Bloom, Joshua S.; Butler, Nathaniel R.; Brink, Henrik; Crellin-Quick, Arien

2012-12-01

With growing data volumes from synoptic surveys, astronomers necessarily must become more abstracted from the discovery and introspection processes. Given the scarcity of follow-up resources, there is a particularly sharp onus on the frameworks that replace these human roles to provide accurate and well-calibrated probabilistic classification catalogs. Such catalogs inform the subsequent follow-up, allowing consumers to optimize the selection of specific sources for further study and permitting rigorous treatment of classification purities and efficiencies for population studies. Here, we describe a process to produce a probabilistic classification catalog of variability with machine learning from a multi-epoch photometric survey. In addition to producing accurate classifications, we show how to estimate calibrated class probabilities and motivate the importance of probability calibration. We also introduce a methodology for feature-based anomaly detection, which allows discovery of objects in the survey that do not fit within the predefined class taxonomy. Finally, we apply these methods to sources observed by the All-Sky Automated Survey (ASAS), and release the Machine-learned ASAS Classification Catalog (MACC), a 28 class probabilistic classification catalog of 50,124 ASAS sources in the ASAS Catalog of Variable Stars. We estimate that MACC achieves a sub-20% classification error rate and demonstrate that the class posterior probabilities are reasonably calibrated. MACC classifications compare favorably to the classifications of several previous domain-specific ASAS papers and to the ASAS Catalog of Variable Stars, which had classified only 24% of those sources into one of 12 science classes.

Analyses of flood-flow frequency for selected gaging stations in South Dakota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Benson, R.D.; Hoffman, E.B.; Wipf, V.J.

1985-01-01

Analyses of flood flow frequency were made for 111 continuous-record gaging stations in South Dakota with 10 or more years of record. The analyses were developed using the log-Pearson Type III procedure recommended by the U.S. Water Resources Council. The procedure characterizes flood occurrence at a single site as a sequence of annual peak flows. The magnitudes of the annual peak flows are assumed to be independent random variables following a log-Pearson Type III probability distribution, which defines the probability that any single annual peak flow will exceed a specified discharge. By considering only annual peak flows, the flood-frequency analysis becomes the estimation of the log-Pearson annual-probability curve using the record of annual peak flows at the site. The recorded data are divided into two classes: systematic and historic. The systematic record includes all annual peak flows determined in the process of conducting a systematic gaging program at a site. In this program, the annual peak flow is determined for each and every year of the program. The systematic record is intended to constitute an unbiased and representative sample of the population of all possible annual peak flows at the site. In contrast to the systematic record, the historic record consists of annual peak flows that would not have been determined except for evidence indicating their unusual magnitude. Flood information acquired from historical sources almost invariably refers to floods of noteworthy, and hence extraordinary, size. Although historic records form a biased and unrepresentative sample, they can be used to supplement the systematic record. (Author 's abstract)

Combined risk assessment of nonstationary monthly water quality based on Markov chain and time-varying copula.

PubMed

Shi, Wei; Xia, Jun

2017-02-01

Water quality risk management is a global hot research linkage with the sustainable water resource development. Ammonium nitrogen (NH 3 -N) and permanganate index (COD Mn ) as the focus indicators in Huai River Basin, are selected to reveal their joint transition laws based on Markov theory. The time-varying moments model with either time or land cover index as explanatory variables is applied to build the time-varying marginal distributions of water quality time series. Time-varying copula model, which takes the non-stationarity in the marginal distribution and/or the time variation in dependence structure between water quality series into consideration, is constructed to describe a bivariate frequency analysis for NH 3 -N and COD Mn series at the same monitoring gauge. The larger first-order Markov joint transition probability indicates water quality state Class V w , Class IV and Class III will occur easily in the water body of Bengbu Sluice. Both marginal distribution and copula models are nonstationary, and the explanatory variable time yields better performance than land cover index in describing the non-stationarities in the marginal distributions. In modelling the dependence structure changes, time-varying copula has a better fitting performance than the copula with the constant or the time-trend dependence parameter. The largest synchronous encounter risk probability of NH 3 -N and COD Mn simultaneously reaching Class V is 50.61%, while the asynchronous encounter risk probability is largest when NH 3 -N and COD Mn is inferior to class V and class IV water quality standards, respectively.

CONSTRUCTION OF A CALIBRATED PROBABILISTIC CLASSIFICATION CATALOG: APPLICATION TO 50k VARIABLE SOURCES IN THE ALL-SKY AUTOMATED SURVEY

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Richards, Joseph W.; Starr, Dan L.; Miller, Adam A.

2012-12-15

With growing data volumes from synoptic surveys, astronomers necessarily must become more abstracted from the discovery and introspection processes. Given the scarcity of follow-up resources, there is a particularly sharp onus on the frameworks that replace these human roles to provide accurate and well-calibrated probabilistic classification catalogs. Such catalogs inform the subsequent follow-up, allowing consumers to optimize the selection of specific sources for further study and permitting rigorous treatment of classification purities and efficiencies for population studies. Here, we describe a process to produce a probabilistic classification catalog of variability with machine learning from a multi-epoch photometric survey. In additionmore » to producing accurate classifications, we show how to estimate calibrated class probabilities and motivate the importance of probability calibration. We also introduce a methodology for feature-based anomaly detection, which allows discovery of objects in the survey that do not fit within the predefined class taxonomy. Finally, we apply these methods to sources observed by the All-Sky Automated Survey (ASAS), and release the Machine-learned ASAS Classification Catalog (MACC), a 28 class probabilistic classification catalog of 50,124 ASAS sources in the ASAS Catalog of Variable Stars. We estimate that MACC achieves a sub-20% classification error rate and demonstrate that the class posterior probabilities are reasonably calibrated. MACC classifications compare favorably to the classifications of several previous domain-specific ASAS papers and to the ASAS Catalog of Variable Stars, which had classified only 24% of those sources into one of 12 science classes.« less

Simultaneous attentional guidance by working-memory and selection history reveals two distinct sources of attention.

PubMed

Schwark, Jeremy D; Dolgov, Igor; Sandry, Joshua; Volkman, C Brooks

2013-10-01

Recent theories of attention have proposed that selection history is a separate, dissociable source of information that influences attention. The current study sought to investigate the simultaneous involvement of selection history and working-memory on attention during visual search. Experiments 1 and 2 used target feature probability to manipulate selection history and found significant effects of both working-memory and selection history, although working-memory dominated selection history when they cued different locations. Experiment 3 eliminated the contribution of voluntary refreshing of working-memory and replicated the main effects, although selection history became dominant. Using the same methodology, but with reduced probability cue validity, both effects were present in Experiment 4 and did not significantly differ in their contribution to attention. Effects of selection history and working-memory never interacted. These results suggest that selection history and working-memory are separate influences on attention and have little impact on each other. Theoretical implications for models of attention are discussed. © 2013.

Environmental Scanning and the Information Manager.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Newsome, James; McInerney, Claire

1990-01-01

Discusses nine components of an environmental scanning model: selecting the scanning team; selecting resources to scan; choosing criteria for scanning; scanning the resources; identifying signals of new issues; selecting key events/issues; monitoring and analyzing events/issues; disseminating information; and deciding on appropriate organizational…

Skier triggering of backcountry avalanches with skilled route selection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sinickas, Alexandra; Haegeli, Pascal; Jamieson, Bruce

2015-04-01

Jamieson (2009) provided numerical estimates for the baseline probabilities of triggering an avalanche by a backcountry skier making fresh tracks without skilled route selection as a function of the North American avalanche danger scale (i.e., hazard levels Low, Moderate, Considerable, High and Extreme). Using the results of an expert survey, he showed that triggering probabilities while skiing directly up, down or across a trigger zone without skilled route selection increase roughly by a factor of 10 with each step of the North American avalanche danger scale (i.e. hazard level). The objective of the present study is to examine the effect of skilled route selection on the relationship between triggering probability and hazard level. To assess the effect of skilled route selection on triggering probability by hazard level, we analysed avalanche hazard assessments as well as reports of skiing activity and triggering of avalanches from 11 Canadian helicopter and snowcat operations during two winters (2012-13 and 2013-14). These reports were submitted to the daily information exchange among Canadian avalanche safety operations, and reflect professional decision-making and route selection practices of guides leading groups of skiers. We selected all skier-controlled or accidentally triggered avalanches with a destructive size greater than size 1 according to the Canadian avalanche size classification, triggered by any member of a guided group (guide or guest). These operations forecast the avalanche hazard daily for each of three elevation bands: alpine, treeline and below treeline. In contrast to the 2009 study, an exposure was defined as a group skiing within any one of the three elevation bands, and consequently within a hazard rating, for the day (~4,300 ratings over two winters). For example, a group that skied below treeline (rated Moderate) and treeline (rated Considerable) in one day, would receive one count for exposure to Moderate hazard, and one count for exposure to Considerable hazard. While the absolute values for triggering probability cannot be compared to the 2009 study because of different definitions of exposure, our preliminary results suggest that with skilled route selection the triggering probability is similar all hazard levels, except for extreme for which there are few exposures. This means that the guiding teams of backcountry skiing operations effectively control the hazard from triggering avalanches with skilled route selection. Groups were exposed relatively evenly to Low hazard (1275 times or 29% of total exposure), Moderate hazard (1450 times or 33 %) and Considerable hazard (1215 times or 28 %). At higher levels, the exposure reduced to roughly 380 times (9 % of total exposure) to High hazard, and only 13 times (0.3 %) to Extreme hazard. We assess the sensitivity of the results to some of our key assumptions.

Revisiting the Impact of NCLB High-Stakes School Accountability, Capacity, and Resources: State NAEP 1990-2009 Reading and Math Achievement Gaps and Trends

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Jaekyung; Reeves, Todd

2012-01-01

This study examines the impact of high-stakes school accountability, capacity, and resources under NCLB on reading and math achievement outcomes through comparative interrupted time-series analyses of 1990-2009 NAEP state assessment data. Through hierarchical linear modeling latent variable regression with inverse probability of treatment…

Career Planning: Developing the Nation's Primary Resource.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jarvis, Phillip S.

Career planning is the most critical ingredient in developing a nation's primary resource, its workers. A 1988 Gallup Poll showed that 62 percent of U.S. workers had no career goal when they began their first job, and more than 50 percent felt they were in the wrong job. The same results probably could be applied to Canada. Career planning skills…

Probabilistic assessment methodology for continuous-type petroleum accumulations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Crovelli, R.A.

2003-01-01

The analytic resource assessment method, called ACCESS (Analytic Cell-based Continuous Energy Spreadsheet System), was developed to calculate estimates of petroleum resources for the geologic assessment model, called FORSPAN, in continuous-type petroleum accumulations. The ACCESS method is based upon mathematical equations derived from probability theory in the form of a computer spreadsheet system. ?? 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Integration of Reading and Writing Strategies in Primary Level Special Education Resource Students To Improve Reading Performance.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Peterson, Kathy S.

A program was developed for improving the reading level of primary special education resource students in a progressive suburban community in the midwest. The problem was originally noted by an increase in the need for support services and low standardized test scores. Analysis of probable cause data revealed that students lacked knowledge of the…

An innovative method for offshore wind farm site selection based on the interval number with probability distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Yunna; Chen, Kaifeng; Xu, Hu; Xu, Chuanbo; Zhang, Haobo; Yang, Meng

2017-12-01

There is insufficient research relating to offshore wind farm site selection in China. The current methods for site selection have some defects. First, information loss is caused by two aspects: the implicit assumption that the probability distribution on the interval number is uniform; and ignoring the value of decision makers' (DMs') common opinion on the criteria information evaluation. Secondly, the difference in DMs' utility function has failed to receive attention. An innovative method is proposed in this article to solve these drawbacks. First, a new form of interval number and its weighted operator are proposed to reflect the uncertainty and reduce information loss. Secondly, a new stochastic dominance degree is proposed to quantify the interval number with a probability distribution. Thirdly, a two-stage method integrating the weighted operator with stochastic dominance degree is proposed to evaluate the alternatives. Finally, a case from China proves the effectiveness of this method.

Genomic analyses of primitive, wild and cultivated citrus provide insights into asexual reproduction.

PubMed

Wang, Xia; Xu, Yuantao; Zhang, Siqi; Cao, Li; Huang, Yue; Cheng, Junfeng; Wu, Guizhi; Tian, Shilin; Chen, Chunli; Liu, Yan; Yu, Huiwen; Yang, Xiaoming; Lan, Hong; Wang, Nan; Wang, Lun; Xu, Jidi; Jiang, Xiaolin; Xie, Zongzhou; Tan, Meilian; Larkin, Robert M; Chen, Ling-Ling; Ma, Bin-Guang; Ruan, Yijun; Deng, Xiuxin; Xu, Qiang

2017-05-01

The emergence of apomixis-the transition from sexual to asexual reproduction-is a prominent feature of modern citrus. Here we de novo sequenced and comprehensively studied the genomes of four representative citrus species. Additionally, we sequenced 100 accessions of primitive, wild and cultivated citrus. Comparative population analysis suggested that genomic regions harboring energy- and reproduction-associated genes are probably under selection in cultivated citrus. We also narrowed the genetic locus responsible for citrus polyembryony, a form of apomixis, to an 80-kb region containing 11 candidate genes. One of these, CitRWP, is expressed at higher levels in ovules of polyembryonic cultivars. We found a miniature inverted-repeat transposable element insertion in the promoter region of CitRWP that cosegregated with polyembryony. This study provides new insights into citrus apomixis and constitutes a promising resource for the mining of agriculturally important genes.

A Bayesian multi-stage cost-effectiveness design for animal studies in stroke research

PubMed Central

Cai, Chunyan; Ning, Jing; Huang, Xuelin

2017-01-01

Much progress has been made in the area of adaptive designs for clinical trials. However, little has been done regarding adaptive designs to identify optimal treatment strategies in animal studies. Motivated by an animal study of a novel strategy for treating strokes, we propose a Bayesian multi-stage cost-effectiveness design to simultaneously identify the optimal dose and determine the therapeutic treatment window for administrating the experimental agent. We consider a non-monotonic pattern for the dose-schedule-efficacy relationship and develop an adaptive shrinkage algorithm to assign more cohorts to admissible strategies. We conduct simulation studies to evaluate the performance of the proposed design by comparing it with two standard designs. These simulation studies show that the proposed design yields a significantly higher probability of selecting the optimal strategy, while it is generally more efficient and practical in terms of resource usage. PMID:27405325

Resource availability at Taurus-Littrow

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Haskin, Larry A.; Colson, R. O.

1992-01-01

Early lunar technologies will probably use a common lunar material as ore. They will be robust to minor fluctuations in feedstock composition and will not require appreciable feedstock beneficiation such as rock grinding or mineral concentration. Technologies using unprocessed soil and indifferent to its composition will have the advantage. Nevertheless, the size and grade of the ore body must be confirmed for even the most indiscriminate process. Simple uses such as heaping unprocessed lunar soil for thermal insulation or radiation shielding onto a habitat require that we know the depth of the regolith, the size distributions of its soils, the locations of large boulders, and the ease of excavation. Costs of detailed site surveys trade against restrictions on site selection and conservative engineering design to accommodate unknown conditions of a poorly explored site. Given the above considerations, we consider briefly some abundant lunar materials, their proposed uses, and technologies for their preparation, with particular attention to the Taurus-Littrow site.

Human locognosic acuity on the arm varies with explicit and implicit manipulations of attention: implications for interpreting elevated tactile acuity on an amputation stump.

PubMed

O'Boyle, D J; Moore, C E; Poliakoff, E; Butterworth, R; Sutton, A; Cody, F W

2001-06-01

In Experiment 1, normal subjects' ability to localize tactile stimuli (locognosia) delivered to the upper arm was significantly higher when they were instructed explicitly to direct their attention selectively to that segment than when they were instructed explicitly to distribute their attention across the whole arm. This elevation of acuity was eliminated when subjects' attentional resources were divided by superimposition of an effortful, secondary task during stimulation. In Experiment 2, in the absence of explicit attentional instruction, subjects' locognosic acuity on one of three arm segments was significantly higher when stimulation of that segment was 2.5 times more probable than that of stimulation of the other two segments. We surmise that the attentional mechanisms responsible for such modulations of locognosic acuity in normal subjects may contribute to the elevated sensory acuity observed on the stumps of amputees.

USE OF NATURAL WATERS AS U. S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY REFERENCE SAMPLES.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Janzer, Victor J.

1985-01-01

The U. S. Geological Survey conducts research and collects hydrologic data relating to the Nation's water resources. Seven types of natural matrix reference water samples are prepared for use in the Survey's quality assurance program. These include samples containing major constituents, trace metals, nutrients, herbicides, insecticides, trace metals in a water and suspended-sediment mixture, and precipitation (snowmelt). To prepare these reference samples, natural water is collected in plastic drums and the sediment is allowed to settle. The water is then filtered, selected constituents are added, and if necessary the water is acidified and sterilized by ultraviolet irradiation before bottling in plastic or glass. These reference samples are distributed twice yearly to more than 100 laboratories for chemical analysis. The most probable values for each constituent are determined by evaluating the data submitted by the laboratories using statistical techniques recommended by ASTM.

Most Undirected Random Graphs Are Amplifiers of Selection for Birth-Death Dynamics, but Suppressors of Selection for Death-Birth Dynamics.

PubMed

Hindersin, Laura; Traulsen, Arne

2015-11-01

We analyze evolutionary dynamics on graphs, where the nodes represent individuals of a population. The links of a node describe which other individuals can be displaced by the offspring of the individual on that node. Amplifiers of selection are graphs for which the fixation probability is increased for advantageous mutants and decreased for disadvantageous mutants. A few examples of such amplifiers have been developed, but so far it is unclear how many such structures exist and how to construct them. Here, we show that almost any undirected random graph is an amplifier of selection for Birth-death updating, where an individual is selected to reproduce with probability proportional to its fitness and one of its neighbors is replaced by that offspring at random. If we instead focus on death-Birth updating, in which a random individual is removed and its neighbors compete for the empty spot, then the same ensemble of graphs consists of almost only suppressors of selection for which the fixation probability is decreased for advantageous mutants and increased for disadvantageous mutants. Thus, the impact of population structure on evolutionary dynamics is a subtle issue that will depend on seemingly minor details of the underlying evolutionary process.

Adaptive Learning Resources Sequencing in Educational Hypermedia Systems

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Karampiperis, Pythagoras; Sampson, Demetrios

2005-01-01

Adaptive learning resources selection and sequencing is recognized as among the most interesting research questions in adaptive educational hypermedia systems (AEHS). In order to adaptively select and sequence learning resources in AEHS, the definition of adaptation rules contained in the Adaptation Model, is required. Although, some efforts have…

Ground roost resource selection for Merriam's wild turkeys

Treesearch

Chad P. Lehman; Daniel J. Thompson; Mark A. Rumble

2010-01-01

Concealment cover is important for ground-roosting wild turkey (Meleagris gallopavo) poults immediately following hatch during the vulnerable, preflight stage. We compared concealment cover resources selected at ground roosts to those of nest sites and available resources for Merriam's turkeys (Meleagris gallopavo merriami) in the Black Hills of South Dakota, USA...

Optimized probability sampling of study sites to improve generalizability in a multisite intervention trial.

PubMed

Kraschnewski, Jennifer L; Keyserling, Thomas C; Bangdiwala, Shrikant I; Gizlice, Ziya; Garcia, Beverly A; Johnston, Larry F; Gustafson, Alison; Petrovic, Lindsay; Glasgow, Russell E; Samuel-Hodge, Carmen D

2010-01-01

Studies of type 2 translation, the adaption of evidence-based interventions to real-world settings, should include representative study sites and staff to improve external validity. Sites for such studies are, however, often selected by convenience sampling, which limits generalizability. We used an optimized probability sampling protocol to select an unbiased, representative sample of study sites to prepare for a randomized trial of a weight loss intervention. We invited North Carolina health departments within 200 miles of the research center to participate (N = 81). Of the 43 health departments that were eligible, 30 were interested in participating. To select a representative and feasible sample of 6 health departments that met inclusion criteria, we generated all combinations of 6 from the 30 health departments that were eligible and interested. From the subset of combinations that met inclusion criteria, we selected 1 at random. Of 593,775 possible combinations of 6 counties, 15,177 (3%) met inclusion criteria. Sites in the selected subset were similar to all eligible sites in terms of health department characteristics and county demographics. Optimized probability sampling improved generalizability by ensuring an unbiased and representative sample of study sites.

Bayesian selection of misspecified models is overconfident and may cause spurious posterior probabilities for phylogenetic trees.

PubMed

Yang, Ziheng; Zhu, Tianqi

2018-02-20

The Bayesian method is noted to produce spuriously high posterior probabilities for phylogenetic trees in analysis of large datasets, but the precise reasons for this overconfidence are unknown. In general, the performance of Bayesian selection of misspecified models is poorly understood, even though this is of great scientific interest since models are never true in real data analysis. Here we characterize the asymptotic behavior of Bayesian model selection and show that when the competing models are equally wrong, Bayesian model selection exhibits surprising and polarized behaviors in large datasets, supporting one model with full force while rejecting the others. If one model is slightly less wrong than the other, the less wrong model will eventually win when the amount of data increases, but the method may become overconfident before it becomes reliable. We suggest that this extreme behavior may be a major factor for the spuriously high posterior probabilities for evolutionary trees. The philosophical implications of our results to the application of Bayesian model selection to evaluate opposing scientific hypotheses are yet to be explored, as are the behaviors of non-Bayesian methods in similar situations.

Threshold-selecting strategy for best possible ground state detection with genetic algorithms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lässig, Jörg; Hoffmann, Karl Heinz

2009-04-01

Genetic algorithms are a standard heuristic to find states of low energy in complex state spaces as given by physical systems such as spin glasses but also in combinatorial optimization. The paper considers the problem of selecting individuals in the current population in genetic algorithms for crossover. Many schemes have been considered in literature as possible crossover selection strategies. We show for a large class of quality measures that the best possible probability distribution for selecting individuals in each generation of the algorithm execution is a rectangular distribution over the individuals sorted by their energy values. This means uniform probabilities have to be assigned to a group of the individuals with lowest energy in the population but probabilities equal to zero to individuals which are corresponding to energy values higher than a fixed cutoff, which is equal to a certain rank in the vector sorted by the energy of the states in the current population. The considered strategy is dubbed threshold selecting. The proof applies basic arguments of Markov chains and linear optimization and makes only a few assumptions on the underlying principles and hence applies to a large class of algorithms.

Dynamic Call Admission Control Scheme Based on Predictive User Mobility Behavior for Cellular Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Intarasothonchun, Silada; Thipchaksurat, Sakchai; Varakulsiripunth, Ruttikorn; Onozato, Yoshikuni

In this paper, we propose a modified scheme of MSODB and PMS, called Predictive User Mobility Behavior (PUMB) to improve performance of resource reservation and call admission control for cellular networks. This algorithm is proposed in which bandwidth is allocated more efficiently to neighboring cells by key mobility parameters in order to provide QoS guarantees for transferring traffic. The probability is used to form a cluster of cells and the shadow cluster, where a mobile unit is likely to visit. When a mobile unit may change the direction and migrate to the cell that does not belong to its shadow cluster, we can support it by making efficient use of predicted nonconforming call. Concomitantly, to ensure continuity of on-going calls with better utilization of resources, bandwidth is borrowed from predicted nonconforming calls and existing adaptive calls without affecting the minimum QoS guarantees. The performance of the PUMB is demonstrated by simulation results in terms of new call blocking probability, handoff call dropping probability, bandwidth utilization, call successful probability, and overhead message transmission when arrival rate and speed of mobile units are varied. Our results show that PUMB provides the better performances comparing with those of MSODB and PMS under different traffic conditions.

The effect of selection environment on the probability of parallel evolution.

PubMed

Bailey, Susan F; Rodrigue, Nicolas; Kassen, Rees

2015-06-01

Across the great diversity of life, there are many compelling examples of parallel and convergent evolution-similar evolutionary changes arising in independently evolving populations. Parallel evolution is often taken to be strong evidence of adaptation occurring in populations that are highly constrained in their genetic variation. Theoretical models suggest a few potential factors driving the probability of parallel evolution, but experimental tests are needed. In this study, we quantify the degree of parallel evolution in 15 replicate populations of Pseudomonas fluorescens evolved in five different environments that varied in resource type and arrangement. We identified repeat changes across multiple levels of biological organization from phenotype, to gene, to nucleotide, and tested the impact of 1) selection environment, 2) the degree of adaptation, and 3) the degree of heterogeneity in the environment on the degree of parallel evolution at the gene-level. We saw, as expected, that parallel evolution occurred more often between populations evolved in the same environment; however, the extent of parallel evolution varied widely. The degree of adaptation did not significantly explain variation in the extent of parallelism in our system but number of available beneficial mutations correlated negatively with parallel evolution. In addition, degree of parallel evolution was significantly higher in populations evolved in a spatially structured, multiresource environment, suggesting that environmental heterogeneity may be an important factor constraining adaptation. Overall, our results stress the importance of environment in driving parallel evolutionary changes and point to a number of avenues for future work for understanding when evolution is predictable. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

An oilspill risk analysis for the Mid-Atlantic (proposed sale 76) outer continental shelf lease area

USGS Publications Warehouse

Samuels, W.B.; Hopkins, Dorothy

1982-01-01

An oilspill risk analysis was conducted for the mid-Atlantic (proposed sale 76) Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) lease area. The analysis considered: the probability of spill occurrences based on historical trends; likely movement of oil slicks based on a climatological model; and locations of environmental resources which could be vulnerable to spilled oil. The times between spill occurrence and contact with resources were estimated to aid analysts in estimating slick characteristics. Critical assumptions made for this particular analysis were (1) that oil exists in the lease area, and (2) that 0.879 billion barrels of oil will be found and produced from tracts sold in sale 76. On the basis of this resource estimate, it was calculated that 3 to 4 oilspills of 1,000 barrels or greater will occur over the 30-year production life of the proposed sale 76 lease tracts. The results also depend upon the routes and methods chosen to transport oil from 0CS platforms to shore. Given the above assumptions, the estimated probability that one or more oilspills of 1,000 barrels or larger will occur and contact land after being at sea less than 30 days is 0.36; for spills 10,000 barrels or larger, the probability is 0.22. These probabilities also reflect the following assumptions: oilspills remain intact for up to 30 days, do not weather, and are not cleaned up. It is noteworthy that over 90 percent of the risk from proposed sale 76 is due to transportation rather than production of oil. In addition, the risks from proposed sale 76 are about 1/10 to 1/15 those of existing tanker transportation of crude oil imports and refined products in the mid-Atlantic area.

Resource-aware taxon selection for maximizing phylogenetic diversity.

PubMed

Pardi, Fabio; Goldman, Nick

2007-06-01

Phylogenetic diversity (PD) is a useful metric for selecting taxa in a range of biological applications, for example, bioconservation and genomics, where the selection is usually constrained by the limited availability of resources. We formalize taxon selection as a conceptually simple optimization problem, aiming to maximize PD subject to resource constraints. This allows us to take into account the different amounts of resources required by the different taxa. Although this is a computationally difficult problem, we present a dynamic programming algorithm that solves it in pseudo-polynomial time. Our algorithm can also solve many instances of the Noah's Ark Problem, a more realistic formulation of taxon selection for biodiversity conservation that allows for taxon-specific extinction risks. These instances extend the set of problems for which solutions are available beyond previously known greedy-tractable cases. Finally, we discuss the relevance of our results to real-life scenarios.

Targeting hunter distribution based on host resource selection and kill sites to manage disease risk.

PubMed

Dugal, Cherie J; van Beest, Floris M; Vander Wal, Eric; Brook, Ryan K

2013-10-01

Endemic and emerging diseases are rarely uniform in their spatial distribution or prevalence among cohorts of wildlife. Spatial models that quantify risk-driven differences in resource selection and hunter mortality of animals at fine spatial scales can assist disease management by identifying high-risk areas and individuals. We used resource selection functions (RSFs) and selection ratios (SRs) to quantify sex- and age-specific resource selection patterns of collared (n = 67) and hunter-killed (n = 796) nonmigratory elk (Cervus canadensis manitobensis) during the hunting season between 2002 and 2012, in southwestern Manitoba, Canada. Distance to protected area was the most important covariate influencing resource selection and hunter-kill sites of elk (AICw = 1.00). Collared adult males (which are most likely to be infected with bovine tuberculosis (Mycobacterium bovis) and chronic wasting disease) rarely selected for sites outside of parks during the hunting season in contrast to adult females and juvenile males. The RSFs showed selection by adult females and juvenile males to be negatively associated with landscape-level forest cover, high road density, and water cover, whereas hunter-kill sites of these cohorts were positively associated with landscape-level forest cover and increasing distance to streams and negatively associated with high road density. Local-level forest was positively associated with collared animal locations and hunter-kill sites; however, selection was stronger for collared juvenile males and hunter-killed adult females. In instances where disease infects a metapopulation and eradication is infeasible, a principle goal of management is to limit the spread of disease among infected animals. We map high-risk areas that are regularly used by potentially infectious hosts but currently underrepresented in the distribution of kill sites. We present a novel application of widely available data to target hunter distribution based on host resource selection and kill sites as a promising tool for applying selective hunting to the management of transmissible diseases in a game species.

CABALLO AND POLVADERA ROADLESS AREAS, NEW MEXICO.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Manley, Kim; Lane, Michael

1984-01-01

A mineral-resource survey has been conducted for the Caballo and Polvadera Roadless Areas, Los Alamos and Rio Arriba Counties, New Mexico. The rocks in the study areas are chiefly volcanic with minor volcaniclastic sedimentary rocks. There is little promise for the occurrence of mineral or fossil fuel resources in the areas. There has been no mining activity within the roadless areas and chemical analyses of stream-sediment samples show no significant anomalous concentrations of metals. There has been some interest in geothermal resources near the Polvadera Roadless Area and a KGRA (Known Geothermal Resource Area) extends into the southwestern corner of the area. This area has been classified as having probable geothermal-resource potential.

The use of sea ice habitat by female polar bears in the Beaufort Sea

USGS Publications Warehouse

Durner, George M.; Amstrup, Steven C.; Nielson, Ryan M.; McDonald, Trent

2003-01-01

Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) depend on ice-covered seas to satisfy life history requirements. Modern threats to polar bears include oil spills in the marine environment and changes in ice composition resulting from climate change. Managers need practical models that explain the distribution of bears in order to assess the impacts of these threats. We used stepwise procedures to create resource selection models of habitat use for radio-collared female polar bears in the Beaufort Sea. Sea ice characteristics and ocean depths at known polar bear locations were compared to the same features at randomly selected locations. Models generated for each of four seasons confirmed complexities of habitat use by polar bears and their response to numerous factors. Bears preferred shallow water areas where ice concentrations were > 80 % and different ice types intersected. Variation among seasons was reflected mainly in differential selection of ice stages, floe sizes, and their interactions. Water depth, total ice concentration and distance to the nearest interface between different ice types were significant terms in models for most seasons. Variation in ice stage and form also appeared in three models, and several interaction effects were identified. Habitat selection by polar bears is likely related to prey abundance and availability. Use of habitats in shallow water possibly reflects higher productivity in those areas. Habitat use in close proximity to ice edges is probably related to greater access of prey in those habitats.

Dynamic selective environments and evolutionary traps in human-dominated landscapes.

PubMed

Rodewald, Amanda D; Shustack, Daniel P; Jones, Todd M

2011-09-01

Human activities can alter selective environments in ways that can reduce the usefulness of certain ornamental traits as honest signals of individual quality and, in some cases, may create evolutionary traps, where rapid changes in selective environments result in maladaptive behavioral decisions. Using the sexually dichromatic, socially monogamous Northern Cardinal (Cardinalis cardinalis) as a model, we hypothesized that urbanization would erode the relationship between plumage coloration and reproductive success. Because the exotic Amur honeysuckle (Lonicera maackii) provides carotenoids, is a preferred habitat attribute, and increases vulnerability to nest predation, we predicted the presence of an evolutionary trap, whereby the brightest males would achieve the lowest reproductive success. Working at 14 forests in Ohio, USA, 2006-2008, we measured plumage color, monitored reproduction, and quantified habitat within territories. In rural landscapes, the brightest males bred earliest in the season and secured more preferred territories; however, annual reproduction declined with plumage brightness. Coloration of urban males was not associated with territory attributes or reproduction. Female redness across all landscapes was negatively related to reproduction. Poor reproductive performance of otherwise higher-quality males probably resulted from preferences for honeysuckle, which reduces annual reproduction when used as a nesting substrate early in the season. In this way, exotic shrubs prompted an evolutionary trap that was avoided in urban forests where anthropogenic resources disassociated male color and reproductive phenology and success. Our study illustrates how modified selective environments in human-dominated landscapes might shape microevolutionary processes in wild bird populations.

Monitoring and modeling to predict Escherichia coli at Presque Isle Beach 2, City of Erie, Erie County, Pennsylvania

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zimmerman, Tammy M.

2006-01-01

The Lake Erie shoreline in Pennsylvania spans nearly 40 miles and is a valuable recreational resource for Erie County. Nearly 7 miles of the Lake Erie shoreline lies within Presque Isle State Park in Erie, Pa. Concentrations of Escherichia coli (E. coli) bacteria at permitted Presque Isle beaches occasionally exceed the single-sample bathing-water standard, resulting in unsafe swimming conditions and closure of the beaches. E. coli concentrations and other water-quality and environmental data collected at Presque Isle Beach 2 during the 2004 and 2005 recreational seasons were used to develop models using tobit regression analyses to predict E. coli concentrations. All variables statistically related to E. coli concentrations were included in the initial regression analyses, and after several iterations, only those explanatory variables that made the models significantly better at predicting E. coli concentrations were included in the final models. Regression models were developed using data from 2004, 2005, and the combined 2-year dataset. Variables in the 2004 model and the combined 2004-2005 model were log10 turbidity, rain weight, wave height (calculated), and wind direction. Variables in the 2005 model were log10 turbidity and wind direction. Explanatory variables not included in the final models were water temperature, streamflow, wind speed, and current speed; model results indicated these variables did not meet significance criteria at the 95-percent confidence level (probabilities were greater than 0.05). The predicted E. coli concentrations produced by the models were used to develop probabilities that concentrations would exceed the single-sample bathing-water standard for E. coli of 235 colonies per 100 milliliters. Analysis of the exceedence probabilities helped determine a threshold probability for each model, chosen such that the correct number of exceedences and nonexceedences was maximized and the number of false positives and false negatives was minimized. Future samples with computed exceedence probabilities higher than the selected threshold probability, as determined by the model, will likely exceed the E. coli standard and a beach advisory or closing may need to be issued; computed exceedence probabilities lower than the threshold probability will likely indicate the standard will not be exceeded. Additional data collected each year can be used to test and possibly improve the model. This study will aid beach managers in more rapidly determining when waters are not safe for recreational use and, subsequently, when to issue beach advisories or closings.

Health Education a Conceptual Approach. Growing and Developing, Interacting, Decision Making. Concept 10: Food Selecting and Eating Patterns Are Determined by Physical, Social, Mental, Economic, and Cultural Factors. Teacher-Student Resources.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Creswell, William H., Jr.; And Others

The following resource guide is one in a series which presents extensive bibliographic material oriented around a specific concept, in this guide, food selection and eating patterns. A section is devoted to selected materials related to the concept; grade levels for which each resource might be useful are indicated beside each citation. A second…

Domain-Specific Interference Tests on Navigational Working Memory in Military Pilots.

PubMed

Verde, Paola; Boccia, Maddalena; Colangeli, Stefano; Barbetti, Sonia; Nori, Raffaella; Ferlazzo, Fabio; Piccolo, Francesco; Vitalone, Roberto; Lucertini, Elena; Piccardi, Laura

2016-06-01

Human navigation is a very complex ability that encompasses all four stages of human information processing (sensory input, perception/cognition, selection, and execution of an action), involving both cognitive and physical requirements. During flight, the pilot uses all of these stages and one of the most critical aspect is interference. In fact, spatial tasks competing for the same cognitive resource cause greater distraction from a concurrent task than another task that uses different resource modalities. Here we compared and contrasted the performance of pilots and nonpilots of both genders performing increasingly complex navigational memory tasks while exposed to various forms of interference. We investigated the effects of four different sources of interference: motor, spatial motor, verbal, and spatial environment, focusing on gender differences. We found that flight experts perform better than controls (Pilots: 6.50 ± 1.29; Nonpilots: 5.45 ± 1.41). Furthermore, in the general population, navigational working memory is compromised only by spatial environmental interference (Nonpilots: 4.52 ± 1.50); female nonpilots were less able than male nonpilots. Also, the flight expert group showed the same interference, even if reduced (Pilots: 5.24 ± 0.92); moreover, we highlighted a complete absence of gender-related effects. Spatial environmental interference is the only interference producing a decrease in performance. Nevertheless, pilots are less affected than the general population. This is probably a consequence of the need to commit substantial cognitive resources to process spatial information during flight.

New parasitoid-predator associations: female parasitoids do not avoid competition with generalist predators when sharing invasive prey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chailleux, Anaïs; Wajnberg, Eric; Zhou, Yuxiang; Amiens-Desneux, Edwige; Desneux, Nicolas

2014-12-01

Optimal habitat selection is essential for species survival in ecosystems, and interspecific competition is a key ecological mechanism for many observed species association patterns. Specialized animal species are commonly affected by resource and interference competition with generalist and/or omnivorous competitors, so avoidance behavior could be expected. We hypothesize that specialist species may exploit broad range cues from such potential resource competitors (i.e., cues possibly common to various generalist and/or omnivorous predators) to avoid costly competition regarding food or reproduction, even in new species associations. We tested this hypothesis by studying short-term interactions between a native larval parasitoid and a native generalist omnivorous predator recently sharing the same invasive host/prey, the leaf miner Tuta absoluta. We observed a strong negative effect of kleptoparasitism (food resource stealing) instead of classical intraguild predation on immature parasitoids. There was no evidence that parasitoid females avoided the omnivorous predator when searching for oviposition sites, although we studied both long- and short-range known detection mechanisms. Therefore, we conclude that broad range cue avoidance may not exist in our biological system, probably because it would lead to too much oviposition site avoidance which would not be an efficient and, thus, beneficial strategy. If confirmed in other parasitoids or specialist predators, our findings may have implications for population dynamics, especially in the current context of increasing invasive species and the resulting creation of many new species associations.

Market survey on traditional medicine of the third month fair in Dali Prefecture in Yunnan Province, South West China.

PubMed

Zhang, Dequan; Duan, Lizhen; Zhou, Nong

2014-01-01

The Third Month Fair in Dali is a historical festival and fair. The market of traditional medicine (TM) is one of the main parts in the fair, which has important influence on local and peripheral people. In this study, approaches of ethnobotany, pharmacognosy, and participatory rural appraisal were used in market survey. Twenty-six druggists were selected randomly as informants and their TMs were recorded. As a result, 427 TMs were recorded including 362 plant medicines, 33 animal medicines, 13 mineral medicines and 19 unidentified medicines. Xinyi, Shanza and Gancao were the most popular medicines due to their popular usages, whereas Sanqi, Tianma and Renshen were relatively fewer in this investigation probably owing to high price and limited output. The plant medicines were from medicinal plants of 117 families belonged to Angiosperm, Gymnospermae, Pteridophyta, Bryophyta, Lichenes and Fungi. Asteraceae, Apiaceae and Fabaceae provided the maximum numbers of TMs successively. Moreover, these TMs were mainly from the cultivated especially familiar TMs, which reflected significant progress in utilization and conservation of medicinal resource in China. Medicinal market in the Third Month Fair is the most important traditional bazaar in Yunnan province. This study systematically surveyed TMs in the fair for the first time, analyzing and revealing resource compositions and current market situations. These newly gathered data provided precious information for development of medicine cultivation, resource protection and market management as well as further pharmacognostical, pharmacological and clinical researches.

Scale-Dependent Habitat Selection and Size-Based Dominance in Adult Male American Alligators

PubMed Central

Strickland, Bradley A.; Vilella, Francisco J.; Belant, Jerrold L.

2016-01-01

Habitat selection is an active behavioral process that may vary across spatial and temporal scales. Animals choose an area of primary utilization (i.e., home range) then make decisions focused on resource needs within patches. Dominance may affect the spatial distribution of conspecifics and concomitant habitat selection. Size-dependent social dominance hierarchies have been documented in captive alligators, but evidence is lacking from wild populations. We studied habitat selection for adult male American alligators (Alligator mississippiensis; n = 17) on the Pearl River in central Mississippi, USA, to test whether habitat selection was scale-dependent and individual resource selectivity was a function of conspecific body size. We used K-select analysis to quantify selection at the home range scale and patches within the home range to determine selection congruency and important habitat variables. In addition, we used linear models to determine if body size was related to selection patterns and strengths. Our results indicated habitat selection of adult male alligators was a scale-dependent process. Alligators demonstrated greater overall selection for habitat variables at the patch level and less at the home range level, suggesting resources may not be limited when selecting a home range for animals in our study area. Further, diurnal habitat selection patterns may depend on thermoregulatory needs. There was no relationship between resource selection or home range size and body size, suggesting size-dependent dominance hierarchies may not have influenced alligator resource selection or space use in our sample. Though apparent habitat suitability and low alligator density did not manifest in an observed dominance hierarchy, we hypothesize that a change in either could increase intraspecific interactions, facilitating a dominance hierarchy. Due to the broad and diverse ecological roles of alligators, understanding the factors that influence their social dominance and space use can provide great insight into their functional role in the ecosystem. PMID:27588947

Scale-dependent habitat selection and size-based dominance in adult male American alligators

USGS Publications Warehouse

Strickland, Bradley A.; Vilella, Francisco; Belant, Jerrold L.

2016-01-01

Habitat selection is an active behavioral process that may vary across spatial and temporal scales. Animals choose an area of primary utilization (i.e., home range) then make decisions focused on resource needs within patches. Dominance may affect the spatial distribution of conspecifics and concomitant habitat selection. Size-dependent social dominance hierarchies have been documented in captive alligators, but evidence is lacking from wild populations. We studied habitat selection for adult male American alligators (Alligator mississippiensis; n = 17) on the Pearl River in central Mississippi, USA, to test whether habitat selection was scale-dependent and individual resource selectivity was a function of conspecific body size. We used K-select analysis to quantify selection at the home range scale and patches within the home range to determine selection congruency and important habitat variables. In addition, we used linear models to determine if body size was related to selection patterns and strengths. Our results indicated habitat selection of adult male alligators was a scale-dependent process. Alligators demonstrated greater overall selection for habitat variables at the patch level and less at the home range level, suggesting resources may not be limited when selecting a home range for animals in our study area. Further, diurnal habitat selection patterns may depend on thermoregulatory needs. There was no relationship between resource selection or home range size and body size, suggesting size-dependent dominance hierarchies may not have influenced alligator resource selection or space use in our sample. Though apparent habitat suitability and low alligator density did not manifest in an observed dominance hierarchy, we hypothesize that a change in either could increase intraspecific interactions, facilitating a dominance hierarchy. Due to the broad and diverse ecological roles of alligators, understanding the factors that influence their social dominance and space use can provide great insight into their functional role in the ecosystem.

Tractable Goal Selection with Oversubscribed Resources

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rabideau, Gregg; Chien, Steve; McLaren, David

2009-01-01

We describe an efficient, online goal selection algorithm and its use for selecting goals at runtime. Our focus is on the re-planning that must be performed in a timely manner on the embedded system where computational resources are limited. In particular, our algorithm generates near optimal solutions to problems with fully specified goal requests that oversubscribe available resources but have no temporal flexibility. By using a fast, incremental algorithm, goal selection can be postponed in a "just-in-time" fashion allowing requests to be changed or added at the last minute. This enables shorter response cycles and greater autonomy for the system under control.

Why fruit rots: theoretical support for Janzen's theory of microbe-macrobe competition.

PubMed

Ruxton, Graeme D; Wilkinson, David M; Schaefer, H Martin; Sherratt, Thomas N

2014-05-07

We present a formal model of Janzen's influential theory that competition for resources between microbes and vertebrates causes microbes to be selected to make these resources unpalatable to vertebrates. That is, fruit rots, seeds mould and meat spoils, in part, because microbes gain a selective advantage if they can alter the properties of these resources to avoid losing the resources to vertebrate consumers. A previous model had failed to find circumstances in which such a costly spoilage trait could flourish; here, we present a simple analytic model of a general situation where costly microbial spoilage is selected and persists. We argue that the key difference between the two models lies in their treatments of microbial dispersal. If microbial dispersal is sufficiently spatially constrained that different resource items can have differing microbial communities, then spoilage will be selected; however, if microbial dispersal has a strong homogenizing effect on the microbial community then spoilage will not be selected. We suspect that both regimes will exist in the natural world, and suggest how future empirical studies could explore the influence of microbial dispersal on spoilage.

Features of effective medical knowledge resources to support point of care learning: a focus group study.

PubMed

Cook, David A; Sorensen, Kristi J; Hersh, William; Berger, Richard A; Wilkinson, John M

2013-01-01

Health care professionals access various information sources to quickly answer questions that arise in clinical practice. The features that favorably influence the selection and use of knowledge resources remain unclear. We sought to better understand how clinicians select among the various knowledge resources available to them, and from this to derive a model for an effective knowledge resource. We conducted 11 focus groups at an academic medical center and outlying community sites. We included a purposive sample of 50 primary care and subspecialist internal medicine and family medicine physicians. We transcribed focus group discussions and analyzed these using a constant comparative approach to inductively identify features that influence the selection of knowledge resources. We identified nine features that influence users' selection of knowledge resources, namely efficiency (with sub-features of comprehensiveness, searchability, and brevity), integration with clinical workflow, credibility, user familiarity, capacity to identify a human expert, reflection of local care processes, optimization for the clinical question (e.g., diagnosis, treatment options, drug side effect), currency, and ability to support patient education. No single existing resource exemplifies all of these features. The influential features identified in this study will inform the development of knowledge resources, and could serve as a framework for future research in this field.

Features of Effective Medical Knowledge Resources to Support Point of Care Learning: A Focus Group Study

PubMed Central

Cook, David A.; Sorensen, Kristi J.; Hersh, William; Berger, Richard A.; Wilkinson, John M.

2013-01-01

Objective Health care professionals access various information sources to quickly answer questions that arise in clinical practice. The features that favorably influence the selection and use of knowledge resources remain unclear. We sought to better understand how clinicians select among the various knowledge resources available to them, and from this to derive a model for an effective knowledge resource. Methods We conducted 11 focus groups at an academic medical center and outlying community sites. We included a purposive sample of 50 primary care and subspecialist internal medicine and family medicine physicians. We transcribed focus group discussions and analyzed these using a constant comparative approach to inductively identify features that influence the selection of knowledge resources. Results We identified nine features that influence users' selection of knowledge resources, namely efficiency (with sub-features of comprehensiveness, searchability, and brevity), integration with clinical workflow, credibility, user familiarity, capacity to identify a human expert, reflection of local care processes, optimization for the clinical question (e.g., diagnosis, treatment options, drug side effect), currency, and ability to support patient education. No single existing resource exemplifies all of these features. Conclusion The influential features identified in this study will inform the development of knowledge resources, and could serve as a framework for future research in this field. PMID:24282535

MRI Brain Tumor Segmentation and Necrosis Detection Using Adaptive Sobolev Snakes.

PubMed

Nakhmani, Arie; Kikinis, Ron; Tannenbaum, Allen

2014-03-21

Brain tumor segmentation in brain MRI volumes is used in neurosurgical planning and illness staging. It is important to explore the tumor shape and necrosis regions at different points of time to evaluate the disease progression. We propose an algorithm for semi-automatic tumor segmentation and necrosis detection. Our algorithm consists of three parts: conversion of MRI volume to a probability space based on the on-line learned model, tumor probability density estimation, and adaptive segmentation in the probability space. We use manually selected acceptance and rejection classes on a single MRI slice to learn the background and foreground statistical models. Then, we propagate this model to all MRI slices to compute the most probable regions of the tumor. Anisotropic 3D diffusion is used to estimate the probability density. Finally, the estimated density is segmented by the Sobolev active contour (snake) algorithm to select smoothed regions of the maximum tumor probability. The segmentation approach is robust to noise and not very sensitive to the manual initialization in the volumes tested. Also, it is appropriate for low contrast imagery. The irregular necrosis regions are detected by using the outliers of the probability distribution inside the segmented region. The necrosis regions of small width are removed due to a high probability of noisy measurements. The MRI volume segmentation results obtained by our algorithm are very similar to expert manual segmentation.

MRI brain tumor segmentation and necrosis detection using adaptive Sobolev snakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakhmani, Arie; Kikinis, Ron; Tannenbaum, Allen

2014-03-01

Brain tumor segmentation in brain MRI volumes is used in neurosurgical planning and illness staging. It is important to explore the tumor shape and necrosis regions at di erent points of time to evaluate the disease progression. We propose an algorithm for semi-automatic tumor segmentation and necrosis detection. Our algorithm consists of three parts: conversion of MRI volume to a probability space based on the on-line learned model, tumor probability density estimation, and adaptive segmentation in the probability space. We use manually selected acceptance and rejection classes on a single MRI slice to learn the background and foreground statistical models. Then, we propagate this model to all MRI slices to compute the most probable regions of the tumor. Anisotropic 3D di usion is used to estimate the probability density. Finally, the estimated density is segmented by the Sobolev active contour (snake) algorithm to select smoothed regions of the maximum tumor probability. The segmentation approach is robust to noise and not very sensitive to the manual initialization in the volumes tested. Also, it is appropriate for low contrast imagery. The irregular necrosis regions are detected by using the outliers of the probability distribution inside the segmented region. The necrosis regions of small width are removed due to a high probability of noisy measurements. The MRI volume segmentation results obtained by our algorithm are very similar to expert manual segmentation.

Complete Numerical Solution of the Diffusion Equation of Random Genetic Drift

PubMed Central

Zhao, Lei; Yue, Xingye; Waxman, David

2013-01-01

A numerical method is presented to solve the diffusion equation for the random genetic drift that occurs at a single unlinked locus with two alleles. The method was designed to conserve probability, and the resulting numerical solution represents a probability distribution whose total probability is unity. We describe solutions of the diffusion equation whose total probability is unity as complete. Thus the numerical method introduced in this work produces complete solutions, and such solutions have the property that whenever fixation and loss can occur, they are automatically included within the solution. This feature demonstrates that the diffusion approximation can describe not only internal allele frequencies, but also the boundary frequencies zero and one. The numerical approach presented here constitutes a single inclusive framework from which to perform calculations for random genetic drift. It has a straightforward implementation, allowing it to be applied to a wide variety of problems, including those with time-dependent parameters, such as changing population sizes. As tests and illustrations of the numerical method, it is used to determine: (i) the probability density and time-dependent probability of fixation for a neutral locus in a population of constant size; (ii) the probability of fixation in the presence of selection; and (iii) the probability of fixation in the presence of selection and demographic change, the latter in the form of a changing population size. PMID:23749318

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lopez, Anthony; Maclaurin, Galen; Roberts, Billy

Long-term variability of solar resource is an important factor in planning a utility-scale photovoltaic (PV) generation plant, and annual generation for a given location can vary significantly from year to year. Based on multiple years of solar irradiance data, an exceedance probability is the amount of energy that could potentially be produced by a power plant in any given year. An exceedance probability accounts for long-term variability and climate cycles (e.g., monsoons or changes in aerosols), which ultimately impact PV energy generation. Study results indicate that a significant bias could be associated with relying solely on typical meteorological year (TMY)more » resource data to capture long-term variability. While the TMY tends to under-predict annual generation overall compared to the P50, there appear to be pockets of over-prediction as well.« less

A Web-based interface to calculate phonotactic probability for words and nonwords in Modern Standard Arabic.

PubMed

Aljasser, Faisal; Vitevitch, Michael S

2018-02-01

A number of databases (Storkel Behavior Research Methods, 45, 1159-1167, 2013) and online calculators (Vitevitch & Luce Behavior Research Methods, Instruments, and Computers, 36, 481-487, 2004) have been developed to provide statistical information about various aspects of language, and these have proven to be invaluable assets to researchers, clinicians, and instructors in the language sciences. The number of such resources for English is quite large and continues to grow, whereas the number of such resources for other languages is much smaller. This article describes the development of a Web-based interface to calculate phonotactic probability in Modern Standard Arabic (MSA). A full description of how the calculator can be used is provided. It can be freely accessed at http://phonotactic.drupal.ku.edu/ .

The (Un)Certainty of Selectivity in Liquid Chromatography Tandem Mass Spectrometry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berendsen, Bjorn J. A.; Stolker, Linda A. M.; Nielen, Michel W. F.

2013-01-01

We developed a procedure to determine the "identification power" of an LC-MS/MS method operated in the MRM acquisition mode, which is related to its selectivity. The probability of any compound showing the same precursor ion, product ions, and retention time as the compound of interest is used as a measure of selectivity. This is calculated based upon empirical models constructed from three very large compound databases. Based upon the final probability estimation, additional measures to assure unambiguous identification can be taken, like the selection of different or additional product ions. The reported procedure in combination with criteria for relative ion abundances results in a powerful technique to determine the (un)certainty of the selectivity of any LC-MS/MS analysis and thus the risk of false positive results. Furthermore, the procedure is very useful as a tool to validate method selectivity.

Crucial nesting habitat for gunnison sage-grouse: A spatially explicit hierarchical approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Aldridge, Cameron L.; Saher, D.J.; Childers, T.M.; Stahlnecker, K.E.; Bowen, Z.H.

2012-01-01

Gunnison sage-grouse (Centrocercus minimus) is a species of special concern and is currently considered a candidate species under Endangered Species Act. Careful management is therefore required to ensure that suitable habitat is maintained, particularly because much of the species' current distribution is faced with exurban development pressures. We assessed hierarchical nest site selection patterns of Gunnison sage-grouse inhabiting the western portion of the Gunnison Basin, Colorado, USA, at multiple spatial scales, using logistic regression-based resource selection functions. Models were selected using Akaike Information Criterion corrected for small sample sizes (AIC c) and predictive surfaces were generated using model averaged relative probabilities. Landscape-scale factors that had the most influence on nest site selection included the proportion of sagebrush cover >5%, mean productivity, and density of 2 wheel-drive roads. The landscape-scale predictive surface captured 97% of known Gunnison sage-grouse nests within the top 5 of 10 prediction bins, implicating 57% of the basin as crucial nesting habitat. Crucial habitat identified by the landscape model was used to define the extent for patch-scale modeling efforts. Patch-scale variables that had the greatest influence on nest site selection were the proportion of big sagebrush cover >10%, distance to residential development, distance to high volume paved roads, and mean productivity. This model accurately predicted independent nest locations. The unique hierarchical structure of our models more accurately captures the nested nature of habitat selection, and allowed for increased discrimination within larger landscapes of suitable habitat. We extrapolated the landscape-scale model to the entire Gunnison Basin because of conservation concerns for this species. We believe this predictive surface is a valuable tool which can be incorporated into land use and conservation planning as well the assessment of future land-use scenarios. ?? 2011 The Wildlife Society.

The probability distribution of side-chain conformations in [Leu] and [Met]enkephalin determines the potency and selectivity to mu and delta opiate receptors.

PubMed

Nielsen, Bjørn G; Jensen, Morten Ø; Bohr, Henrik G

2003-01-01

The structure of enkephalin, a small neuropeptide with five amino acids, has been simulated on computers using molecular dynamics. Such simulations exhibit a few stable conformations, which also have been identified experimentally. The simulations provide the possibility to perform cluster analysis in the space defined by potentially pharmacophoric measures such as dihedral angles, side-chain orientation, etc. By analyzing the statistics of the resulting clusters, the probability distribution of the side-chain conformations may be determined. These probabilities allow us to predict the selectivity of [Leu]enkephalin and [Met]enkephalin to the known mu- and delta-type opiate receptors to which they bind as agonists. Other plausible consequences of these probability distributions are discussed in relation to the way in which they may influence the dynamics of the synapse. Copyright 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Biopolymers (Pept Sci) 71: 577-592, 2003

Adaptive and selective seed abortion reveals complex conditional decision making in plants.

PubMed

Meyer, Katrin M; Soldaat, Leo L; Auge, Harald; Thulke, Hans-Hermann

2014-03-01

Behavior is traditionally attributed to animals only. Recently, evidence for plant behavior is accumulating, mostly from plant physiological studies. Here, we provide ecological evidence for complex plant behavior in the form of seed abortion decisions conditional on internal and external cues. We analyzed seed abortion patterns of barberry plants exposed to seed parasitism and different environmental conditions. Without abortion, parasite infestation of seeds can lead to loss of all seeds in a fruit. We statistically tested a series of null models with Monte Carlo simulations to establish selectivity and adaptiveness of the observed seed abortion patterns. Seed abortion was more frequent in parasitized fruits and fruits from dry habitats. Surprisingly, seed abortion occurred with significantly greater probability if there was a second intact seed in the fruit. This strategy provides a fitness benefit if abortion can prevent a sibling seed from coinfestation and if nonabortion of an infested but surviving single seed saves resources invested in the fruit coat. Ecological evidence for complex decision making in plants thus includes a structural memory (the second seed), simple reasoning (integration of inner and outer conditions), conditional behavior (abortion), and anticipation of future risks (seed predation).

Asymmetrical local adaptation of maize landraces along an altitudinal gradient.

PubMed

Mercer, Kristin; Martínez-Vásquez, Ángel; Perales, Hugo R

2008-08-01

Crop landraces are managed populations that evolve in response to gene flow and selection. Cross-pollination among fields, seed sharing by farmers, and selection by management and environmental conditions play roles in shaping crop characteristics. We used common gardens to explore the local adaptation of maize (Zea mays ssp. mays) landrace populations from Chiapas, Mexico to altitude. We sowed seeds of 21 populations from three altitudinal ranges in two common gardens and measured two characteristics that estimate fitness: likelihood of producing good quality seed and the total mass of good quality seed per plant. The probability of lowland plants producing good quality seed was invariably high regardless of garden, while highland landraces were especially sensitive to altitude. Their likelihood of producing good seed quadrupled in the highland site. The mass of good quality seed showed a different pattern, with lowland landraces producing 25% less seed mass than the other types at high elevations. Combining these two measures of fitness revealed that the highland landraces were clearly adapted to highland sites, while lowland and midland landraces appear more adapted to the midland site. We discuss this asymmetry in local adaptation in light of climate change and in situ conservation of crop genetic resources.

Quantum Computing: Selected Internet Resources for Librarians, Researchers, and the Casually Curious

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cirasella, Jill

2009-01-01

This article presents an annotated selection of the most important and informative Internet resources for learning about quantum computing, finding quantum computing literature, and tracking quantum computing news. All of the quantum computing resources described in this article are freely available, English-language web sites that fall into one…

Application of a multipurpose unequal probability stream survey in the Mid-Atlantic Coastal Plain

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ator, S.W.; Olsen, A.R.; Pitchford, A.M.; Denver, J.M.

2003-01-01

A stratified, spatially balanced sample with unequal probability selection was used to design a multipurpose survey of headwater streams in the Mid-Atlantic Coastal Plain. Objectives for the survey include unbiased estimates of regional stream conditions, and adequate coverage of unusual but significant environmental settings to support empirical modeling of the factors affecting those conditions. The design and field application of the survey are discussed in light of these multiple objectives. A probability (random) sample of 175 first-order nontidal streams was selected for synoptic sampling of water chemistry and benthic and riparian ecology during late winter and spring 2000. Twenty-five streams were selected within each of seven hydrogeologic subregions (strata) that were delineated on the basis of physiography and surficial geology. In each subregion, unequal inclusion probabilities were used to provide an approximately even distribution of streams along a gradient of forested to developed (agricultural or urban) land in the contributing watershed. Alternate streams were also selected. Alternates were included in groups of five in each subregion when field reconnaissance demonstrated that primary streams were inaccessible or otherwise unusable. Despite the rejection and replacement of a considerable number of primary streams during reconnaissance (up to 40 percent in one subregion), the desired land use distribution was maintained within each hydrogeologic subregion without sacrificing the probabilistic design.

Limitation of Inverse Probability-of-Censoring Weights in Estimating Survival in the Presence of Strong Selection Bias

PubMed Central

Howe, Chanelle J.; Cole, Stephen R.; Chmiel, Joan S.; Muñoz, Alvaro

2011-01-01

In time-to-event analyses, artificial censoring with correction for induced selection bias using inverse probability-of-censoring weights can be used to 1) examine the natural history of a disease after effective interventions are widely available, 2) correct bias due to noncompliance with fixed or dynamic treatment regimens, and 3) estimate survival in the presence of competing risks. Artificial censoring entails censoring participants when they meet a predefined study criterion, such as exposure to an intervention, failure to comply, or the occurrence of a competing outcome. Inverse probability-of-censoring weights use measured common predictors of the artificial censoring mechanism and the outcome of interest to determine what the survival experience of the artificially censored participants would be had they never been exposed to the intervention, complied with their treatment regimen, or not developed the competing outcome. Even if all common predictors are appropriately measured and taken into account, in the context of small sample size and strong selection bias, inverse probability-of-censoring weights could fail because of violations in assumptions necessary to correct selection bias. The authors used an example from the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study, 1984–2008, regarding estimation of long-term acquired immunodeficiency syndrome-free survival to demonstrate the impact of violations in necessary assumptions. Approaches to improve correction methods are discussed. PMID:21289029

A microcomputer program for energy assessment and aggregation using the triangular probability distribution

USGS Publications Warehouse

Crovelli, R.A.; Balay, R.H.

1991-01-01

A general risk-analysis method was developed for petroleum-resource assessment and other applications. The triangular probability distribution is used as a model with an analytic aggregation methodology based on probability theory rather than Monte-Carlo simulation. Among the advantages of the analytic method are its computational speed and flexibility, and the saving of time and cost on a microcomputer. The input into the model consists of a set of components (e.g. geologic provinces) and, for each component, three potential resource estimates: minimum, most likely (mode), and maximum. Assuming a triangular probability distribution, the mean, standard deviation, and seven fractiles (F100, F95, F75, F50, F25, F5, and F0) are computed for each component, where for example, the probability of more than F95 is equal to 0.95. The components are aggregated by combining the means, standard deviations, and respective fractiles under three possible siutations (1) perfect positive correlation, (2) complete independence, and (3) any degree of dependence between these two polar situations. A package of computer programs named the TRIAGG system was written in the Turbo Pascal 4.0 language for performing the analytic probabilistic methodology. The system consists of a program for processing triangular probability distribution assessments and aggregations, and a separate aggregation routine for aggregating aggregations. The user's documentation and program diskette of the TRIAGG system are available from USGS Open File Services. TRIAGG requires an IBM-PC/XT/AT compatible microcomputer with 256kbyte of main memory, MS-DOS 3.1 or later, either two diskette drives or a fixed disk, and a 132 column printer. A graphics adapter and color display are optional. ?? 1991.

A global logrank test for adaptive treatment strategies based on observational studies.

PubMed

Li, Zhiguo; Valenstein, Marcia; Pfeiffer, Paul; Ganoczy, Dara

2014-02-28

In studying adaptive treatment strategies, a natural question that is of paramount interest is whether there is any significant difference among all possible treatment strategies. When the outcome variable of interest is time-to-event, we propose an inverse probability weighted logrank test for testing the equivalence of a fixed set of pre-specified adaptive treatment strategies based on data from an observational study. The weights take into account both the possible selection bias in an observational study and the fact that the same subject may be consistent with more than one treatment strategy. The asymptotic distribution of the weighted logrank statistic under the null hypothesis is obtained. We show that, in an observational study where the treatment selection probabilities need to be estimated, the estimation of these probabilities does not have an effect on the asymptotic distribution of the weighted logrank statistic, as long as the estimation of the parameters in the models for these probabilities is n-consistent. Finite sample performance of the test is assessed via a simulation study. We also show in the simulation that the test can be pretty robust to misspecification of the models for the probabilities of treatment selection. The method is applied to analyze data on antidepressant adherence time from an observational database maintained at the Department of Veterans Affairs' Serious Mental Illness Treatment Research and Evaluation Center. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Sources for Selecting School Library Resource Materials.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Friderichsen, Blanche

A Department of Education publication on an integrated program for Alberta school libraries, this document recommends the use of specific material selection sources designed to aid schools in developing their library collections. Materials are listed in the following sections: (1) Sources for Selecting School Library Resource Materials; (2)…

Resource efficiency potential of selected technologies, products and strategies.

PubMed

Rohn, Holger; Pastewski, Nico; Lettenmeier, Michael; Wiesen, Klaus; Bienge, Katrin

2014-03-01

Despite rising prices for natural resources during the past 30 years, global consumption of natural resources is still growing. This leads to ecological, economical and social problems. So far, however, limited effort has been made to decrease the natural resource use of goods and services. While resource efficiency is already on the political agenda (EU and national resource strategies), there are still substantial knowledge gaps on the effectiveness of resource efficiency improvement strategies in different fields. In this context and within the project "Material Efficiency and Resource Conservation", the natural resource use of 22 technologies, products and strategies was calculated and their resource efficiency potential analysed. In a preliminary literature- and expert-based identification process, over 250 technologies, strategies, and products, which are regarded as resource efficient, were identified. Out of these, 22 subjects with high resource efficiency potential were selected. They cover a wide range of relevant technologies, products and strategies, such as energy supply and storage, Green IT, transportation, foodstuffs, agricultural engineering, design strategies, lightweight construction, as well as the concept "Using Instead of Owning". To assess the life-cycle-wide resource use of the selected subjects, the material footprint has been applied as a reliable indicator. In addition, sustainability criteria on a qualitative basis were considered. The results presented in this paper show significant resource efficiency potential for many technologies, products and strategies. Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Automated measurement of spatial preference in the open field test with transmitted lighting.

PubMed

Kulikov, Alexander V; Tikhonova, Maria A; Kulikov, Victor A

2008-05-30

New modification of the open field was designed to improve automation of the test. The main innovations were: (1) transmitted lighting and (2) estimation of probability to find pixels associated with an animal in the selected region of arena as an objective index of spatial preference. Transmitted (inverted) lighting significantly ameliorated the contrast between an animal and arena and allowed to track white animals with similar efficacy as colored ones. Probability as a measure of preference of selected region was mathematically proved and experimentally verified. A good correlation between probability and classic indices of spatial preference (number of region entries and time spent therein) was shown. The algorithm of calculation of probability to find pixels associated with an animal in the selected region was implemented in the EthoStudio software. Significant interstrain differences in locomotion and the central zone preference (index of anxiety) were shown using the inverted lighting and the EthoStudio software in mice of six inbred strains. The effects of arena shape (circle or square) and a novel object presence in the center of arena on the open field behavior in mice were studied.

Spatial Niche Segregation of Sympatric Stone Marten and Pine Marten--Avoidance of Competition or Selection of Optimal Habitat?

PubMed

Wereszczuk, Anna; Zalewski, Andrzej

2015-01-01

Coexistence of ecologically similar species relies on differences in one or more dimensions of their ecological niches, such as space, time and resources in diel and/or seasonal scales. However, niche differentiation may result from other mechanisms such as avoidance of high predation pressure, different adaptations or requirements of ecologically similar species. Stone marten (Martes foina) and pine marten (Martes martes) occur sympatrically over a large area in Central Europe and utilize similar habitats and food, therefore it is expected that their coexistence requires differentiation in at least one of their niche dimensions or the mechanisms through which these dimensions are used. To test this hypothesis, we used differences in the species activity patterns and habitat selection, estimated with a resource selection function (RSF), to predict the relative probability of occurrence of the two species within a large forest complex in the northern geographic range of the stone marten. Stone martens were significantly heavier, have a longer body and a better body condition than pine martens. We found weak evidence for temporal niche segregation between the species. Stone and pine martens were both primarily nocturnal, but pine martens were active more frequently during the day and significantly reduced the duration of activity during autumn-winter. Stone and pine martens utilized different habitats and almost completely separated their habitat niches. Stone marten strongly preferred developed areas and avoided meadows and coniferous or deciduous forests. Pine marten preferred deciduous forest and small patches covered by trees, and avoided developed areas and meadows. We conclude that complete habitat segregation of the two marten species facilitates sympatric coexistence in this area. However, spatial niche segregation between these species was more likely due to differences in adaptation to cold climate, avoidance of high predator pressure and/or food preferences by both species than competitive interaction between them.

Apparent inferiority of first-time breeders in the kittiwake: The role of heterogeneity among age classes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cam, E.; Monnat, J.-Y.

2000-01-01

1. Many studies have provided evidence that first-time breeders have a lower survival, a lower probability of success, or of breeding, in the following year. Hypotheses based on reproductive costs have often been proposed to explain this. However, because of the intrinsic relationship between age and experience, the apparent inferiority of first-time breeders at the population level may result from selection, and experience may not influence performance within each individual. In this paper we address the question of phenotypic correlations between fitness components. This addresses differences in individual quality, a prerequisite for a selection process to occur. We also test the hypothesis of an influence of experience on these components while taking age and reproductive success into account: two factors likely to play a key role in a selection process. 2. Using data from a long-term study on the kittiwake, we found that first-time breeders have a lower probability of success, a lower survival and a lower probability of breeding in the next year than experienced breeders. However, neither experienced nor inexperienced breeders have a lower survival or a lower probability of breeding in the following year than birds that skipped a breeding opportunity. This suggests heterogeneity in quality among individuals. 3. Failed birds have a lower survival and a lower probability of breeding in the following year regardless of experience. This can be interpreted in the light of the selection hypothesis. The inferiority of inexperienced breeders may be linked to a higher proportion of lower-quality individuals in younger age classes. When age and breeding success are controlled for, there is no evidence of an influence of experience on survival or future breeding probability. 4. Using data from individuals whose reproductive life lasted the same number of years, we investigated the influence of experience on reproductive performance within individuals. There is no strong evidence that a process operating within individuals explains the improvement in performance observed at the population level.

RYAN HILL ROADLESS AREA, NEW MEXICO.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Maxwell, C.H.; Ellis, C.E.

1984-01-01

On the basis of a geochemical survey, the Ryan Hill Roadless Area, now the Langmuir Research Site in New Mexico has both probable and substantiated resource potential for manganese deposits. The nature of the geologic terrane holds little likelihood for the occurrence of organic fuels. Additional geochemical studies of the manganese vein systems are desirable to better delineate the resource potential; mineralogical and metallurgical studies are needed to determine recoverability of potentially important byproducts, including tungsten and cobalt. Drilling into the vein system at depth would be required to test the continuity of the manganese deposits and evaluate the resource potential of the area for deeply buried base- and precious-metal resources.

Acknowledging Spanish and English resources during mathematical reasoning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

LópezLeiva, Carlos A.; Torres, Zayoni; Khisty, Lena L.

2013-12-01

As English-only efforts continue in the US schooling system, dual-language programs have served as attempts to preserve students' home language. An after-school, dual-language, Spanish-English, mathematics program, Los Rayos was developed in a predominantly Mexican/Mexican-American neighborhood in Chicago. As participant observers with a sociocultural perspective, we explored the linguistic and personal resources used by participating 4th grade bilingual Latina/o students. We found that students used imaginative, playful, and hybrid linguistic resources to make sense of and solve probability tasks when engaged within a zone of mathematical practice. Results challenge narrow perspectives on bilingual students' linguistic resources. Language implications are discussed.

BODY SENSING SYSTEM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mah, Robert W. (Inventor)

2005-01-01

System and method for performing one or more relevant measurements at a target site in an animal body, using a probe. One or more of a group of selected internal measurements is performed at the target site, is optionally combined with one or more selected external measurements, and is optionally combined with one or more selected heuristic information items, in order to reduce to a relatively small number the probable medical conditions associated with the target site. One or more of the internal measurements is optionally used to navigate the probe to the target site. Neural net information processing is performed to provide a reduced set of probable medical conditions associated with the target site.

The impact of resource loss on Holocaust survivors facing war and terrorism in Israel

PubMed Central

Dekel, R.; Hobfoll, S. E.

2009-01-01

We examined the distress level of 102 Holocaust survivors in Israel during a recent period of continuous exposure of the Israeli population to terror and the threat of missile attack. Based on the Conservation of Resources (COR) theory, we explored the contribution of losses suffered during the Holocaust and of current loss of resources due to terror attacks on their distress level. Twenty one percent of the sample had probable PTSD and high psychological distress levels in general. Current loss of psychosocial resources contributed significantly to survivors’ current PTSD symptomatology and general psychological distress, above the contribution of the previous Holocaust-related loss. Our findings support COR theory, which states that traumatic events are associated with ongoing and often rapid loss of resources. Resource loss, in turn, is associated with higher distress levels. Moreover, current loss of resources compounds the impact of earlier resource losses incurred during the Holocaust. PMID:17453549

Natural Selection on Female Life-History Traits in Relation to Socio-Economic Class in Pre-Industrial Human Populations

PubMed Central

Pettay, Jenni E.; Helle, Samuli; Jokela, Jukka; Lummaa, Virpi

2007-01-01

Life-history theory predicts that resource scarcity constrains individual optimal reproductive strategies and shapes the evolution of life-history traits. In species where the inherited structure of social class may lead to consistent resource differences among family lines, between-class variation in resource availability should select for divergence in optimal reproductive strategies. Evaluating this prediction requires information on the phenotypic selection and quantitative genetics of life-history trait variation in relation to individual lifetime access to resources. Here, we show using path analysis how resource availability, measured as the wealth class of the family, affected the opportunity and intensity of phenotypic selection on the key life-history traits of women living in pre-industrial Finland during the 1800s and 1900s. We found the highest opportunity for total selection and the strongest selection on earlier age at first reproduction in women of the poorest wealth class, whereas selection favoured older age at reproductive cessation in mothers of the wealthier classes. We also found clear differences in female life-history traits across wealth classes: the poorest women had the lowest age-specific survival throughout their lives, they started reproduction later, delivered fewer offspring during their lifetime, ceased reproduction younger, had poorer offspring survival to adulthood and, hence, had lower fitness compared to the wealthier women. Our results show that the amount of wealth affected the selection pressure on female life-history in a pre-industrial human population. PMID:17622351

A hybrid machine learning model to predict and visualize nitrate concentration throughout the Central Valley aquifer, California, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ransom, Katherine M.; Nolan, Bernard T.; Traum, Jonathan A.; Faunt, Claudia; Bell, Andrew M.; Gronberg, Jo Ann M.; Wheeler, David C.; Zamora, Celia; Jurgens, Bryant; Schwarz, Gregory E.; Belitz, Kenneth; Eberts, Sandra; Kourakos, George; Harter, Thomas

2017-01-01

Intense demand for water in the Central Valley of California and related increases in groundwater nitrate concentration threaten the sustainability of the groundwater resource. To assess contamination risk in the region, we developed a hybrid, non-linear, machine learning model within a statistical learning framework to predict nitrate contamination of groundwater to depths of approximately 500 m below ground surface. A database of 145 predictor variables representing well characteristics, historical and current field and landscape-scale nitrogen mass balances, historical and current land use, oxidation/reduction conditions, groundwater flow, climate, soil characteristics, depth to groundwater, and groundwater age were assigned to over 6000 private supply and public supply wells measured previously for nitrate and located throughout the study area. The boosted regression tree (BRT) method was used to screen and rank variables to predict nitrate concentration at the depths of domestic and public well supplies. The novel approach included as predictor variables outputs from existing physically based models of the Central Valley. The top five most important predictor variables included two oxidation/reduction variables (probability of manganese concentration to exceed 50 ppb and probability of dissolved oxygen concentration to be below 0.5 ppm), field-scale adjusted unsaturated zone nitrogen input for the 1975 time period, average difference between precipitation and evapotranspiration during the years 1971–2000, and 1992 total landscape nitrogen input. Twenty-five variables were selected for the final model for log-transformed nitrate. In general, increasing probability of anoxic conditions and increasing precipitation relative to potential evapotranspiration had a corresponding decrease in nitrate concentration predictions. Conversely, increasing 1975 unsaturated zone nitrogen leaching flux and 1992 total landscape nitrogen input had an increasing relative impact on nitrate predictions. Three-dimensional visualization indicates that nitrate predictions depend on the probability of anoxic conditions and other factors, and that nitrate predictions generally decreased with increasing groundwater age.

Predicting novel substrates for enzymes with minimal experimental effort with active learning

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pertusi, Dante A.; Moura, Matthew E.; Jeffryes, James G.

Enzymatic substrate promiscuity is more ubiquitous than previously thought, with significant consequences for understanding metabolism and its application to biocatalysis. This realization has given rise to the need for efficient characterization of enzyme promiscuity. Enzyme promiscuity is currently characterized with a limited number of human-selected compounds that may not be representative of the enzyme's versatility. While testing large numbers of compounds may be impractical, computational approaches can exploit existing data to determine the most informative substrates to test next, thereby more thoroughly exploring an enzyme's versatility. To demonstrate this, we used existing studies and tested compounds for four different enzymes,more » developed support vector machine (SVM) models using these datasets, and selected additional compounds for experiments using an active learning approach. SVMs trained on a chemically diverse set of compounds were discovered to achieve maximum accuracies of similar to 80% using similar to 33% fewer compounds than datasets based on all compounds tested in existing studies. Active learning-selected compounds for testing resolved apparent conflicts in the existing training data, while adding diversity to the dataset. The application of these algorithms to wide arrays of metabolic enzymes would result in a library of SVMs that can predict high-probability promiscuous enzymatic reactions and could prove a valuable resource for the design of novel metabolic pathways.« less

Exploring and accounting for publication bias in mental health: a brief overview of methods.

PubMed

Mavridis, Dimitris; Salanti, Georgia

2014-02-01

OBJECTIVE Publication bias undermines the integrity of published research. The aim of this paper is to present a synopsis of methods for exploring and accounting for publication bias. METHODS We discussed the main features of the following methods to assess publication bias: funnel plot analysis; trim-and-fill methods; regression techniques and selection models. We applied these methods to a well-known example of antidepressants trials that compared trials submitted to the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for regulatory approval. RESULTS The funnel plot-related methods (visual inspection, trim-and-fill, regression models) revealed an association between effect size and SE. Contours of statistical significance showed that asymmetry in the funnel plot is probably due to publication bias. Selection model found a significant correlation between effect size and propensity for publication. CONCLUSIONS Researchers should always consider the possible impact of publication bias. Funnel plot-related methods should be seen as a means of examining for small-study effects and not be directly equated with publication bias. Possible causes for funnel plot asymmetry should be explored. Contours of statistical significance may help disentangle whether asymmetry in a funnel plot is caused by publication bias or not. Selection models, although underused, could be useful resource when publication bias and heterogeneity are suspected because they address directly the problem of publication bias and not that of small-study effects.

Predicting novel substrates for enzymes with minimal experimental effort with active learning.

PubMed

Pertusi, Dante A; Moura, Matthew E; Jeffryes, James G; Prabhu, Siddhant; Walters Biggs, Bradley; Tyo, Keith E J

2017-11-01

Enzymatic substrate promiscuity is more ubiquitous than previously thought, with significant consequences for understanding metabolism and its application to biocatalysis. This realization has given rise to the need for efficient characterization of enzyme promiscuity. Enzyme promiscuity is currently characterized with a limited number of human-selected compounds that may not be representative of the enzyme's versatility. While testing large numbers of compounds may be impractical, computational approaches can exploit existing data to determine the most informative substrates to test next, thereby more thoroughly exploring an enzyme's versatility. To demonstrate this, we used existing studies and tested compounds for four different enzymes, developed support vector machine (SVM) models using these datasets, and selected additional compounds for experiments using an active learning approach. SVMs trained on a chemically diverse set of compounds were discovered to achieve maximum accuracies of ~80% using ~33% fewer compounds than datasets based on all compounds tested in existing studies. Active learning-selected compounds for testing resolved apparent conflicts in the existing training data, while adding diversity to the dataset. The application of these algorithms to wide arrays of metabolic enzymes would result in a library of SVMs that can predict high-probability promiscuous enzymatic reactions and could prove a valuable resource for the design of novel metabolic pathways. Copyright © 2017 International Metabolic Engineering Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

MOUNT EDDY AND CASTLE CRAGS ROADLESS AREAS, CALIFORNIA.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peterson, Jocelyn A.; Denton, David K.

1984-01-01

A mineral survey of the Mount Eddy and Castle Crags Roadless Areas, California, shows probable mineral-resource potential for chromite and gold on the basis of local occurrences of these minerals and favorable geologic environment within the roadless areas. There is also geochemical evidence for mineralization, but surface evidence is scant. Although asbestos and copper minerals are present in the areas and the geologic environment is favorable for nickel and platinum-group metals, no resource potential for these was identified. No energy resources were identified in the study of the roadless areas.

BLANCO MOUNTAIN AND BLACK CANYON ROADLESS AREAS, CALIFORNIA.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Diggles, Michael F.; Rains, Richard L.

1984-01-01

The mineral survey of the Blanco Mountain and Black Canyon Roadless Areas, California indicated that areas of probable and substantiated mineral-resource potential exist only in the Black Canyon Roadless Area. Gold with moderate amounts of lead, silver, zinc, and tungsten, occurs in vein deposits and in tactite. The nature of the geological terrain indicates little likelihood for the occurrence of energy resources in the roadless areas. Detailed geologic mapping might better define the extent of gold mineralization. Detailed stream-sediment sampling and analysis of heavy-mineral concentrations could better define tungsten resource potential.

An oilspill risk analysis for the South Atlantic (proposed sale 78) outer continental shelf lease area

USGS Publications Warehouse

Samuels, W.B.

1982-01-01

An oilspill risk analysis was conducted for the South Atlantic (proposed sale 78) Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) lease area. The analysis considered the probability of spill occurrences based on historical trends; likely movement of oil slicks based on a climatological model ; and locations of environmental resources which could be vulnerable to spilled oil. The times between spill occurrence and contact with resources were estimated to aid analysts in estimating slick characteristics. Critical assumptions made for this particular analysis were: (1) that oil exists in the lease area, (2) that either 0.228 billion (mean case) or 1.14 billion (high case) barrels of oil will be found and produced from tracts sold in sale 78, and (3) that all the oil will be found either in the northern or the southern portion of the lease area. On the basis of these resource estimates, it was estimated that 1 to 5 oilspills of 1,000 barrels or greater will occur over the 25 to 30-year production life of the proposed sale 78 tracts. The results also depend upon the routes and methods chosen to transport oil from OCS platforms to shore. Given the above assumptions, the estimated probability that one or more oilspills of 1,000 barrels or larger will occur and contact land after being at sea less than 30 days is less than 15 percent for all cases considered; for spills 10,000 barrels or larger, the probability is less than 10 percent. These probabilities also reflect the following assumptions: oilspills remain intact for up to 30 days, do not weather, and are not cleaned up. It is noteworthy that over 80 percent of the risk of oilspill occurrence from proposed sale 78 is due to transportation rather than production of oil. In addition, the risks of oilspill occurrence from proposed sale 78 (mean resource estimate) are less than one-tenth of the risks of existing tanker transportation of crude oil imports and refined products in the South Atlantic area.

Winter habitat selection of mule deer before and during development of a natural gas field

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sawyer, H.; Nielson, R.M.; Lindzey, F.; McDonald, L.L.

2006-01-01

Increased levels of natural gas exploration, development, and production across the Intermountain West have created a variety of concerns for mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) populations, including direct habitat loss to road and well-pad construction and indirect habitat losses that may occur if deer use declines near roads or well pads. We examined winter habitat selection patterns of adult female mule deer before and during the first 3 years of development in a natural gas field in western Wyoming. We used global positioning system (GPS) locations collected from a sample of adult female mule deer to model relative frequency or probability of use as a function of habitat variables. Model coefficients and predictive maps suggested mule deer were less likely to occupy areas in close proximity to well pads than those farther away. Changes in habitat selection appeared to be immediate (i.e., year 1 of development), and no evidence of well-pad acclimation occurred through the course of the study; rather, mule deer selected areas farther from well pads as development progressed. Lower predicted probabilities of use within 2.7 to 3.7 km of well pads suggested indirect habitat losses may be substantially larger than direct habitat losses. Additionally, some areas classified as high probability of use by mule deer before gas field development changed to areas of low use following development, and others originally classified as low probability of use were used more frequently as the field developed. If areas with high probability of use before development were those preferred by the deer, observed shifts in their distribution as development progressed were toward less-preferred and presumably less-suitable habitats.

Eastern United States Hardwood Sawtimber Resources and Export Potential

Treesearch

Philip A. Araman

1987-01-01

To look at the export potential of the Eastern hardwood sawtimber resources, including the Southern and Northern regions, hardwood resource data were compiled from USDA Forest Service state resorce evaluation reports on a set of select export species. The species are the select oaks, yellow birch, hard maple, black walnut, black cherry, and the ashes. These species...

Goal Selection for Embedded Systems with Oversubscribed Resources

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rabideau, Gregg; Chien, Steve; McLaren, David

2010-01-01

We describe an efficient, online goal selection algorithm and its use for selecting goals at runtime. Our focus is on the re-planning that must be performed in a timely manner on the embedded system where computational resources are limited. In particular, our algorithm generates near optimal solutions to problems with fully specified goal requests that oversubscribe available resources but have no temporal flexibility. By using a fast, incremental algorithm, goal selection can be postponed in a "just-in-time" fashion allowing requests to be changed or added at the last minute. This enables shorter response cycles and greater autonomy for the system under control.

Joint Information Theoretic and Differential Geometrical Approach for Robust Automated Target Recognition

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-02-29

surface and Swiss roll) and real-world data sets (UCI Machine Learning Repository [12] and USPS digit handwriting data). In our experiments, we use...less than µn ( say µ = 0.8), we can first use screening technique to select µn candidate nodes, and then apply BIPS on them for further selection and...identified from node j to node i. So we can say the probability for the existence of this connection is approximately 82%. Given the probability matrix

Power Allocation and Outage Probability Analysis for SDN-based Radio Access Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Yongxu; Chen, Yueyun; Mai, Zhiyuan

2018-01-01

In this paper, performance of Access network Architecture based SDN (Software Defined Network) is analyzed with respect to the power allocation issue. A power allocation scheme PSO-PA (Particle Swarm Optimization-power allocation) algorithm is proposed, the proposed scheme is subjected to constant total power with the objective of minimizing system outage probability. The entire access network resource configuration is controlled by the SDN controller, then it sends the optimized power distribution factor to the base station source node (SN) and the relay node (RN). Simulation results show that the proposed scheme reduces the system outage probability at a low complexity.

Animal Rights: Selected Resources and Suggestions for Further Study.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Davidoff, Donald J.

1989-01-01

Presents an annotated list of selected resources intended to serve as a guide to the growing amount of material on animal rights. Suggestions to aid in additional research include subject headings used to find books, indexes used to locate periodical articles, sources for locating organizations, and a selected list of animal rights organizations.…

Selection for territory acquisition is modulated by social network structure in a wild songbird

PubMed Central

Farine, D R; Sheldon, B C

2015-01-01

The social environment may be a key mediator of selection that operates on animals. In many cases, individuals may experience selection not only as a function of their phenotype, but also as a function of the interaction between their phenotype and the phenotypes of the conspecifics they associate with. For example, when animals settle after dispersal, individuals may benefit from arriving early, but, in many cases, these benefits will be affected by the arrival times of other individuals in their local environment. We integrated a recently described method for calculating assortativity on weighted networks, which is the correlation between an individual's phenotype and that of its associates, into an existing framework for measuring the magnitude of social selection operating on phenotypes. We applied this approach to large-scale data on social network structure and the timing of arrival into the breeding area over three years. We found that late-arriving individuals had a reduced probability of breeding. However, the probability of breeding was also influenced by individuals’ social networks. Associating with late-arriving conspecifics increased the probability of successfully acquiring a breeding territory. Hence, social selection could offset the effects of nonsocial selection. Given parallel theoretical developments of the importance of local network structure on population processes, and increasing data being collected on social networks in free-living populations, the integration of these concepts could yield significant insights into social evolution. PMID:25611344

Using dynamic population simulations to extend resource selection analyses and prioritize habitats for conservation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Heinrichs, Julie; Aldridge, Cameron L.; O'Donnell, Michael; Schumaker, Nathan

2017-01-01

Prioritizing habitats for conservation is a challenging task, particularly for species with fluctuating populations and seasonally dynamic habitat needs. Although the use of resource selection models to identify and prioritize habitat for conservation is increasingly common, their ability to characterize important long-term habitats for dynamic populations are variable. To examine how habitats might be prioritized differently if resource selection was directly and dynamically linked with population fluctuations and movement limitations among seasonal habitats, we constructed a spatially explicit individual-based model for a dramatically fluctuating population requiring temporally varying resources. Using greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in Wyoming as a case study, we used resource selection function maps to guide seasonal movement and habitat selection, but emergent population dynamics and simulated movement limitations modified long-term habitat occupancy. We compared priority habitats in RSF maps to long-term simulated habitat use. We examined the circumstances under which the explicit consideration of movement limitations, in combination with population fluctuations and trends, are likely to alter predictions of important habitats. In doing so, we assessed the future occupancy of protected areas under alternative population and habitat conditions. Habitat prioritizations based on resource selection models alone predicted high use in isolated parcels of habitat and in areas with low connectivity among seasonal habitats. In contrast, results based on more biologically-informed simulations emphasized central and connected areas near high-density populations, sometimes predicted to be low selection value. Dynamic models of habitat use can provide additional biological realism that can extend, and in some cases, contradict habitat use predictions generated from short-term or static resource selection analyses. The explicit inclusion of population dynamics and movement propensities via spatial simulation modeling frameworks may provide an informative means of predicting long-term habitat use, particularly for fluctuating populations with complex seasonal habitat needs. Importantly, our results indicate the possible need to consider habitat selection models as a starting point rather than the common end point for refining and prioritizing habitats for protection for cyclic and highly variable populations.

Real estate ads in Emei music frog vocalizations: female preference for calls emanating from burrows.

PubMed

Cui, Jianguo; Tang, Yezhong; Narins, Peter M

2012-06-23

During female mate choice, both the male's phenotype and resources (e.g. his nest) contribute to the chooser's fitness. Animals other than humans are not known to advertise resource characteristics to potential mates through vocal communication; although in some species of anurans and birds, females do evaluate male qualities through vocal communication. Here, we demonstrate that calls of the male Emei music frog (Babina dauchina), vocalizing from male-built nests, reflect nest structure information that can be recognized by females. Inside-nest calls consisted of notes with energy concentrated at lower frequency ranges and longer note durations when compared with outside-nest calls. Centre frequencies and note durations of the inside calls positively correlate with the area of the burrow entrance and the depth of the burrow, respectively. When given a choice between outside and inside calls played back alternately, more than 70 per cent of the females (33/47) chose inside calls. These results demonstrate that males of this species faithfully advertise whether or not they possess a nest to potential mates by vocal communication, which probably facilitates optimal mate selection by females. These results revealed a novel function of advertisement calls, which is consistent with the wide variation in both call complexity and social behaviour within amphibians.

Elk and deer diets in old-growth forests in western Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Leslie, David M.; Starkey, Edward E.; Vavra, Martin

1984-01-01

Dietary quality and overlap of sympatric Roosevelt elk (Cervus elaphus roosevelti) and Columbian black-tailed deer (Odocoileus hemionus columbianus) were investigated in old-growth forests of the Hoh Valley, Olympic National Park, Washington. Diets of both cervids were comprised mainly of common old-growth flora, particularly in winter. High dietary overlap suggested competitive interactions for food, especially in winter when forage resources were least available. Predominant forages in fall and winter diets seemed to afford little opportunity for cervids to select different plant parts. Crude protein (CP), in vitro dry matter digestibility (IVDMD), and phosphorus (P) in important forages varied with phenology, but seasonal trends were more pronounced for shrubs and grasses than forbs and trees. CP, IVDMD, and P in cervid diets also varied seasonally and usually in the following ascending order: winter, fall, summer, spring. CP and P appeared to be adequate in diets, but low IVDMD suggested that digestible energy was limited. Few significant differences in seasonal dietary qualities were demonstrated between elk and deer. The collective cervid population (and its habitat) in the Hoh Valley is unmanaged and probably at equilibrium with its food resource, or at ecological carrying capacity. Results are discussed in light of herbivore--habitat interactions at equilibrium densities.

Parabolic northern-hemisphere river flow teleconnections to El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Arctic Oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fleming, S. W.; Dahlke, H. E.

2014-10-01

It is almost universally assumed in statistical hydroclimatology that relationships between large-scale climate indices and local-scale hydrometeorological responses, though possibly nonlinear, are monotonic. However, recent work suggests that northern-hemisphere atmospheric teleconnections to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Arctic Oscillation can be parabolic. The effect has recently been explicitly confirmed in hydrologic responses, though associations are complicated by land surface characteristics and processes, and investigation of water resource implications has been limited to date. Here, we apply an Akaike Information Criterion-based polynomial selection approach to investigate annual flow volume teleconnections for 42 of the northern hemisphere’s largest ocean-reaching rivers. Though we find a rich diversity of responses, parabolic relationships are formally consistent with the data for almost half the rivers, and the optimal model for eight. These highly nonlinear water supply teleconnections could radically alter the standard conceptual model of how water resources respond to climatic variability. For example, the Sacramento river in drought-ridden California exhibits no significant monotonic ENSO teleconnection but a 0.92 probability of a quadratic relationship, reducing mean predictive error by up to 65% and suggesting greater opportunity for climate index-based water supply forecasts than previously appreciated.

Two-stage seasonal streamflow forecasts to guide water resources decisions and water rights allocation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Block, P. J.; Gonzalez, E.; Bonnafous, L.

2011-12-01

Decision-making in water resources is inherently uncertain producing copious risks, ranging from operational (present) to planning (season-ahead) to design/adaptation (decadal) time-scales. These risks include human activity and climate variability/change. As the risks in designing and operating water systems and allocating available supplies vary systematically in time, prospects for predicting and managing such risks become increasingly attractive. Considerable effort has been undertaken to improve seasonal forecast skill and advocate for integration to reduce risk, however only minimal adoption is evident. Impediments are well defined, yet tailoring forecast products and allowing for flexible adoption assist in overcoming some obstacles. The semi-arid Elqui River basin in Chile is contending with increasing levels of water stress and demand coupled with insufficient investment in infrastructure, taxing its ability to meet agriculture, hydropower, and environmental requirements. The basin is fed from a retreating glacier, with allocation principles founded on a system of water rights and markets. A two-stage seasonal streamflow forecast at leads of one and two seasons prescribes the probability of reductions in the value of each water right, allowing water managers to inform their constituents in advance. A tool linking the streamflow forecast to a simple reservoir decision model also allows water managers to select a level of confidence in the forecast information.

Sampling in epidemiological research: issues, hazards and pitfalls.

PubMed

Tyrer, Stephen; Heyman, Bob

2016-04-01

Surveys of people's opinions are fraught with difficulties. It is easier to obtain information from those who respond to text messages or to emails than to attempt to obtain a representative sample. Samples of the population that are selected non-randomly in this way are termed convenience samples as they are easy to recruit. This introduces a sampling bias. Such non-probability samples have merit in many situations, but an epidemiological enquiry is of little value unless a random sample is obtained. If a sufficient number of those selected actually complete a survey, the results are likely to be representative of the population. This editorial describes probability and non-probability sampling methods and illustrates the difficulties and suggested solutions in performing accurate epidemiological research.

Sampling in epidemiological research: issues, hazards and pitfalls

PubMed Central

Tyrer, Stephen; Heyman, Bob

2016-01-01

Surveys of people's opinions are fraught with difficulties. It is easier to obtain information from those who respond to text messages or to emails than to attempt to obtain a representative sample. Samples of the population that are selected non-randomly in this way are termed convenience samples as they are easy to recruit. This introduces a sampling bias. Such non-probability samples have merit in many situations, but an epidemiological enquiry is of little value unless a random sample is obtained. If a sufficient number of those selected actually complete a survey, the results are likely to be representative of the population. This editorial describes probability and non-probability sampling methods and illustrates the difficulties and suggested solutions in performing accurate epidemiological research. PMID:27087985

Attempts to reduce alcohol intake and treatment needs among people with probable alcohol dependence in England: a general population survey.

PubMed

Dunne, Jacklyn; Kimergård, Andreas; Brown, Jamie; Beard, Emma; Buykx, Penny; Michie, Susan; Drummond, Colin

2018-03-25

To compare the proportion of people in England with probable alcohol dependence [Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) score ≥ 20] with those with other drinking patterns (categorized by AUDIT scores) in terms of motivation to reduce drinking and use of alcohol support resources. A combination of random probability and simple quota sampling to conduct monthly cross-sectional household computer-assisted interviews between March 2014 and August 2017. The general population in all nine regions of England. Participants in the Alcohol Toolkit Study (ATS), a monthly household survey of alcohol consumption among people aged 16 years and over in England (n = 69 826). The mean age was 47 years [standard deviation (SD) = 18.78; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 46.8-47] and 51% (n = 35 560) were female. χ 2 tests were used to investigate associations with demographic variables, motivation to quit drinking, attempts to quit drinking, general practitioner (GP) engagement and types of support accessed in the last 12 months across AUDIT risk zones. A total of 0.6% were classified as people with probable alcohol dependence (95% CI = 0.5-0.7). Motivation to quit (χ 2  = 1692.27, P < 0.001), current attempts (χ 2  = 473.94, P < 0.001) and past-year attempts (χ 2  = 593.67, P < 0.001) differed by AUDIT risk zone. People with probable dependence were more likely than other ATS participants to have a past-year attempt to cut down or quit (51.8%) and have received a specialist referral from their GP about drinking (13.7%), and less likely to report no motivation to reduce their drinking (26.2%). Those with probable dependence had higher use of self-help books and mobile applications (apps) than other ATS participants; however, 27.7% did not access any resources during their most recent attempt to cut down. Adults in England with probable alcohol dependence, measured through the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test, demonstrate higher motivation to quit drinking and greater use of both specialist treatment and self-driven support compared with those in other Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test zones, but most do not access treatment resources to support their attempts. © 2018 Society for the Study of Addiction.

Sampling designs matching species biology produce accurate and affordable abundance indices

PubMed Central

Farley, Sean; Russell, Gareth J.; Butler, Matthew J.; Selinger, Jeff

2013-01-01

Wildlife biologists often use grid-based designs to sample animals and generate abundance estimates. Although sampling in grids is theoretically sound, in application, the method can be logistically difficult and expensive when sampling elusive species inhabiting extensive areas. These factors make it challenging to sample animals and meet the statistical assumption of all individuals having an equal probability of capture. Violating this assumption biases results. Does an alternative exist? Perhaps by sampling only where resources attract animals (i.e., targeted sampling), it would provide accurate abundance estimates more efficiently and affordably. However, biases from this approach would also arise if individuals have an unequal probability of capture, especially if some failed to visit the sampling area. Since most biological programs are resource limited, and acquiring abundance data drives many conservation and management applications, it becomes imperative to identify economical and informative sampling designs. Therefore, we evaluated abundance estimates generated from grid and targeted sampling designs using simulations based on geographic positioning system (GPS) data from 42 Alaskan brown bears (Ursus arctos). Migratory salmon drew brown bears from the wider landscape, concentrating them at anadromous streams. This provided a scenario for testing the targeted approach. Grid and targeted sampling varied by trap amount, location (traps placed randomly, systematically or by expert opinion), and traps stationary or moved between capture sessions. We began by identifying when to sample, and if bears had equal probability of capture. We compared abundance estimates against seven criteria: bias, precision, accuracy, effort, plus encounter rates, and probabilities of capture and recapture. One grid (49 km2 cells) and one targeted configuration provided the most accurate results. Both placed traps by expert opinion and moved traps between capture sessions, which raised capture probabilities. The grid design was least biased (−10.5%), but imprecise (CV 21.2%), and used most effort (16,100 trap-nights). The targeted configuration was more biased (−17.3%), but most precise (CV 12.3%), with least effort (7,000 trap-nights). Targeted sampling generated encounter rates four times higher, and capture and recapture probabilities 11% and 60% higher than grid sampling, in a sampling frame 88% smaller. Bears had unequal probability of capture with both sampling designs, partly because some bears never had traps available to sample them. Hence, grid and targeted sampling generated abundance indices, not estimates. Overall, targeted sampling provided the most accurate and affordable design to index abundance. Targeted sampling may offer an alternative method to index the abundance of other species inhabiting expansive and inaccessible landscapes elsewhere, provided their attraction to resource concentrations. PMID:24392290

Demand-Side Management and Integrated Resource Planning: Findings from a Survey of 24 Electric Utilities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schweitzer, M.

1991-01-01

Integrated resource planning differs from traditional utility planning practices primarily in its increased attention to demand-side management (DSM) programs and its integration of supply- and demand-side resources into a combined resource portfolio. This report details the findings from an Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) survey of 24 electric utilities that have well-developed integrated planning processes. These utilities account for roughly one-third of total capacity, electricity generation, and DSM-program expenditures nationwide. The ORNL survey was designed to obtain descriptive data on a national sample of utilities and to test a number of hypothesized relationships between selected utility characteristics and the mixmore » of resources selected for the integrated plan, with an emphasis on the use of DSM resources and the processes by which they are chosen. The survey solicited information on each utility's current and projected resource mix, operating environment, procedures used to screen potential DSM resources, techniques used to obtain public input and to integrate supply- and demand-side options into a unified plan, and procedures used in the final selection of resources for the plan.« less

Rational use of Xpert testing in patients with presumptive TB: clinicians should be encouraged to use the test-treat threshold.

PubMed

Decroo, Tom; Henríquez-Trujillo, Aquiles R; De Weggheleire, Anja; Lynen, Lutgarde

2017-10-11

A recently published Ugandan study on tuberculosis (TB) diagnosis in HIV-positive patients with presumptive smear-negative TB, which showed that out of 90 patients who started TB treatment, 20% (18/90) had a positive Xpert MTB/RIF (Xpert) test, 24% (22/90) had a negative Xpert test, and 56% (50/90) were started without Xpert testing. Although Xpert testing was available, clinicians did not use it systematically. Here we aim to show more objectively the process of clinical decision-making. First, we estimated that pre-test probability of TB, or the prevalence of TB in smear-negative HIV infected patients with signs of presumptive TB in Uganda, was 17%. Second, we argue that the treatment threshold, the probability of disease at which the utility of treating and not treating is the same, and above which treatment should be started, should be determined. In Uganda, the treatment threshold was not yet formally established. In Rwanda, the calculated treatment threshold was 12%. Hence, one could argue that the threshold was reached without even considering additional tests. Still, Xpert testing can be useful when the probability of disease is above the treatment threshold, but only when a negative Xpert result can lower the probability of disease enough to cross the treatment threshold. This occurs when the pre-test probability is lower than the test-treat threshold, the probability of disease at which the utility of testing and the utility of treating without testing is the same. We estimated that the test-treatment threshold was 28%. Finally, to show the effect of the presence or absence of arguments on the probability of TB, we use confirming and excluding power, and a log10 odds scale to combine arguments. If the pre-test probability is above the test-treat threshold, empirical treatment is justified, because even a negative Xpert will not lower the post-test probability below the treatment threshold. However, Xpert testing for the diagnosis of TB should be performed in patients for whom the probability of TB was lower than the test-treat threshold. Especially in resource constrained settings clinicians should be encouraged to take clinical decisions and use scarce resources rationally.

Justification of Filter Selection for Robot Balancing in Conditions of Limited Computational Resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Momot, M. V.; Politsinskaia, E. V.; Sushko, A. V.; Semerenko, I. A.

2016-08-01

The paper considers the problem of mathematical filter selection, used for balancing of wheeled robot in conditions of limited computational resources. The solution based on complementary filter is proposed.

WILDERNESSES AND ROADLESS AREAS IN WHITE MOUNTAIN NATIONAL FOREST NEW HAMPSHIRE.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moench, Robert H.; Gazdik, Gertrude C.

1984-01-01

On the basis of a mineral survey, a geologic terrane in north-central New Hampshire having an area of at least 300 sq mi has probable potential for the occurrence of tin resources. This terrane covers all of the Sandwich Range Roadless Area, approximately the eastern two thirds of the Pemigewasset Roadless Area, a large part of the Presidential Range-Dry River Wilderness, and the southern part of the Dry River Extension Roadless Area. If major tin deposits occur in New Hampshire, they are probably associated with the Mesozoic Conway Granite. Tin resources in the New Hampshire terrane may also occur in small but high-grade veins, as at the old Jackson tin mine; and in iron-beryllium deposits that are low grade with respect to tin but richer in iron, beryllium, lead, zinc, and silver, as at the old Iron Mountain mine. The resource potential for uranium, tungsten, and niobium in the same and other parts of the area investigated cannot be evaluated frpm present data. The nature of the geologic terrain indicates little likelihood of the occurrence of organic fuels.

Physical and chemical properties of the Martian soil: Review of resources

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stoker, C. R.; Gooding, James L.; Banin, A.; Clark, Benton C.; Roush, Ted

1991-01-01

The chemical and physical properties of Martian surface materials are reviewed from the perspective of using these resources to support human settlement. The resource potential of Martian sediments and soils can only be inferred from limited analyses performed by the Viking Landers (VL), from information derived from remote sensing, and from analysis of the SNC meteorites thought to be from Mars. Bulk elemental compositions by the VL inorganic chemical (x ray fluorescence) analysis experiments have been interpreted as evidence for clay minerals (possibly smectites) or mineraloids (palagonite) admixed with sulfate and chloride salts. The materials contained minerals bearing Fe, Ti, Al, Mg and Si. Martian surface materials may be used in many ways. Martian soil, with appropriate preconditioning, can probably be used as a plant growth medium, supplying mechanical support, nutrient elements, and water at optimal conditions to the plants. Loose Martian soils could be used to cover structures and provide radiation shielding for surface habitats. Martian soil could be wetted and formed into abode bricks used for construction. Duricrete bricks, with strength comparable to concrete, can probably be formed using compressed muds made from martian soil.

Influence of precipitation and crop germination on resource selection by mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) in southwest Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Carrollo, Emily M.; Johnson, Heather E.; Fischer, Justin W.; Hammond, Matthew; Dorsey, Patricia D.; Anderson, Charles; Vercauteren, Kurt C.; Walter, W. David

2017-01-01

Mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) populations in the western United States provide many benefits to local economies but can also cause considerable damage to agriculture, particularly damage to lucrative crops. Limited information exists to understand resource selection of mule deer in response to annual variation in crop rotation and climatic conditions. We tested the hypothesis that mule deer select certain crops, and in particular sunflower, based on annual climatic variability. Our objective was to use movements, estimates of home range, and resource selection analysis to identify resources selected by mule deer. We used annually-derived crop-specific datasets along with Global Positioning System collars to monitor 14 mule deer in an agricultural area near public lands in southwestern Colorado, USA. We estimated home ranges for two winter seasons that ranged between 7.68 and 9.88 km2, and for two summer seasons that ranged between 5.51 and 6.24 km2. Mule deer selected areas closer to forest and alfalfa for most periods during 2012, but selected areas closer to sunflower in a majority of periods during 2013. Considerable annual variation in climate patterns and precipitation levels appeared to influence selection by mule deer because of variability in crop rotation and success of germination of specific crops.

Influence of Precipitation and Crop Germination on Resource Selection by Mule Deer (Odocoileus hemionus) in Southwest Colorado.

PubMed

Carrollo, Emily M; Johnson, Heather E; Fischer, Justin W; Hammond, Matthew; Dorsey, Patricia D; Anderson, Charles; Vercauteren, Kurt C; Walter, W David

2017-11-09

Mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) populations in the western United States provide many benefits to local economies but can also cause considerable damage to agriculture, particularly damage to lucrative crops. Limited information exists to understand resource selection of mule deer in response to annual variation in crop rotation and climatic conditions. We tested the hypothesis that mule deer select certain crops, and in particular sunflower, based on annual climatic variability. Our objective was to use movements, estimates of home range, and resource selection analysis to identify resources selected by mule deer. We used annually-derived crop-specific datasets along with Global Positioning System collars to monitor 14 mule deer in an agricultural area near public lands in southwestern Colorado, USA. We estimated home ranges for two winter seasons that ranged between 7.68 and 9.88 km 2 , and for two summer seasons that ranged between 5.51 and 6.24 km 2 . Mule deer selected areas closer to forest and alfalfa for most periods during 2012, but selected areas closer to sunflower in a majority of periods during 2013. Considerable annual variation in climate patterns and precipitation levels appeared to influence selection by mule deer because of variability in crop rotation and success of germination of specific crops.

Response to selection while maximizing genetic variance in small populations.

PubMed

Cervantes, Isabel; Gutiérrez, Juan Pablo; Meuwissen, Theo H E

2016-09-20

Rare breeds represent a valuable resource for future market demands. These populations are usually well-adapted, but their low census compromises the genetic diversity and future of these breeds. Since improvement of a breed for commercial traits may also confer higher probabilities of survival for the breed, it is important to achieve good responses to artificial selection. Therefore, efficient genetic management of these populations is essential to ensure that they respond adequately to genetic selection in possible future artificial selection scenarios. Scenarios that maximize the maximum genetic variance in a unique population could be a valuable option. The aim of this work was to study the effect of the maximization of genetic variance to increase selection response and improve the capacity of a population to adapt to a new environment/production system. We simulated a random scenario (A), a full-sib scenario (B), a scenario applying the maximum variance total (MVT) method (C), a MVT scenario with a restriction on increases in average inbreeding (D), a MVT scenario with a restriction on average individual increases in inbreeding (E), and a minimum coancestry scenario (F). Twenty replicates of each scenario were simulated for 100 generations, followed by 10 generations of selection. Effective population size was used to monitor the outcomes of these scenarios. Although the best response to selection was achieved in scenarios B and C, they were discarded because they are unpractical. Scenario A was also discarded because of its low response to selection. Scenario D yielded less response to selection and a smaller effective population size than scenario E, for which response to selection was higher during early generations because of the moderately structured population. In scenario F, response to selection was slightly higher than in Scenario E in the last generations. Application of MVT with a restriction on individual increases in inbreeding resulted in the largest response to selection during early generations, but if inbreeding depression is a concern, a minimum coancestry scenario is then a valuable alternative, in particular for a long-term response to selection.

Correlation between the Availability of Resources and Efficiency of the School System within the Framework of the Implementation of Competency-Based Teaching Approaches in Cameroon

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Esongo, Njie Martin

2017-01-01

The study takes an in-depth examination of the extent to which the availability of resources relates to the efficiency of the school system within the framework of the implementation of competency-based teaching approaches in Cameroon. The study employed a mix of probability sampling approaches, namely simple, cluster and stratified random…

DOLUS LAKES ROADLESS AREA, MONTANA.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Elliott, James E.; Avery, Dale W.

1984-01-01

A mineral survey of the Dolus Lakes Roadless Area in southwestern Montana, was conducted. Much of the roadless area has probable and substantiated potential for resources of gold, silver, molybdenum, and tungsten. The nature of the geologic terrain indicates that there is little promise for the occurrence of coal, oil, gas, or geothermal resources. Detailed geologic and geochemical studies are suggested to delineate exploration targets that could be tested by drilling.

U.S. Geological Survey circum-arctic resource appraisal

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gautier, D.L.

2011-01-01

Among the greatest uncertainties in future energy supply is the amount of oil and gas yet to be found in the Arctic. Using a probabilistic geology-based methodology, the U.S. Geological Survey has assessed the area north of the Arctic Circle. The Circum-Arctic Resource Appraisal (CARA) consists of three parts: (1) Mapping the sedimentary sequences of the Arctic (Grantz and others 2009), (2) Geologically based estimation of undiscovered technically recoverable petroleum (Gautier and others 2009, discussed in this presentation) and (3) Economic appraisal of the cost of delivering the undiscovered resources to major markets (also reported at this conference by White and others). We estimate that about 30% of the world's undiscovered gas and about 13% of the world's undiscovered oil may be present in the Arctic, mostly offshore under less than 500m of water. Billion BOE-plus accumulations of gas and oil are predicted at a 50% probability in the Kara Sea, Barents Sea, offshore East and West Greenland, Canada, and Alaska. On a BOE basis, undiscovered natural gas is three times more abundant than oil in the Arctic and is concentrated in Russian territory. Oil resources, while critically important to the interests of Arctic countries, are probably not sufficient to significantly shift the current geographic patterns of world oil production. Copyright 2011, Offshore Technology Conference.

Formulation of a correlated variables methodology for assessment of continuous gas resources with an application to the Woodford play, Arkoma Basin, eastern Oklahoma

USGS Publications Warehouse

Olea, R.A.; Houseknecht, D.W.; Garrity, C.P.; Cook, T.A.

2011-01-01

Shale gas is a form of continuous unconventional hydrocarbon accumulation whose resource estimation is unfeasible through the inference of pore volume. Under these circumstances, the usual approach is to base the assessment on well productivity through estimated ultimate recovery (EUR). Unconventional resource assessments that consider uncertainty are typically done by applying analytical procedures based on classical statistics theory that ignores geographical location, does not take into account spatial correlation, and assumes independence of EUR from other variables that may enter into the modeling. We formulate a new, more comprehensive approach based on sequential simulation to test methodologies known to be capable of more fully utilizing the data and overcoming unrealistic simplifications. Theoretical requirements demand modeling of EUR as areal density instead of well EUR. The new experimental methodology is illustrated by evaluating a gas play in the Woodford Shale in the Arkoma Basin of Oklahoma. Differently from previous assessments, we used net thickness and vitrinite reflectance as secondary variables correlated to cell EUR. In addition to the traditional probability distribution for undiscovered resources, the new methodology provides maps of EUR density and maps with probabilities to reach any given cell EUR, which are useful to visualize geographical variations in prospectivity.