14 CFR 253.9 - Retroactive changes to contracts of carriage.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... (AVIATION PROCEEDINGS) ECONOMIC REGULATIONS NOTICE OF TERMS OF CONTRACT OF CARRIAGE § 253.9 Retroactive... bought a ticket any material amendment to its contract of carriage that has significant negative...

14 CFR 253.9 - Retroactive changes to contracts of carriage.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... (AVIATION PROCEEDINGS) ECONOMIC REGULATIONS NOTICE OF TERMS OF CONTRACT OF CARRIAGE § 253.9 Retroactive... bought a ticket any material amendment to its contract of carriage that has significant negative...

A global perspective of the limits of prediction skill based on the ECMWF ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zagar, Nedjeljka

2016-04-01

In this talk presents a new model of the global forecast error growth applied to the forecast errors simulated by the ensemble prediction system (ENS) of the ECMWF. The proxy for forecast errors is the total spread of the ECMWF operational ensemble forecasts obtained by the decomposition of the wind and geopotential fields in the normal-mode functions. In this way, the ensemble spread can be quantified separately for the balanced and inertio-gravity (IG) modes for every forecast range. Ensemble reliability is defined for the balanced and IG modes comparing the ensemble spread with the control analysis in each scale. The results show that initial uncertainties in the ECMWF ENS are largest in the tropical large-scale modes and their spatial distribution is similar to the distribution of the short-range forecast errors. Initially the ensemble spread grows most in the smallest scales and in the synoptic range of the IG modes but the overall growth is dominated by the increase of spread in balanced modes in synoptic and planetary scales in the midlatitudes. During the forecasts, the distribution of spread in the balanced and IG modes grows towards the climatological spread distribution characteristic of the analyses. The ENS system is found to be somewhat under-dispersive which is associated with the lack of tropical variability, primarily the Kelvin waves. The new model of the forecast error growth has three fitting parameters to parameterize the initial fast growth and a more slow exponential error growth later on. The asymptotic values of forecast errors are independent of the exponential growth rate. It is found that the asymptotic values of the errors due to unbalanced dynamics are around 10 days while the balanced and total errors saturate in 3 to 4 weeks. Reference: Žagar, N., R. Buizza, and J. Tribbia, 2015: A three-dimensional multivariate modal analysis of atmospheric predictability with application to the ECMWF ensemble. J. Atmos. Sci., 72, 4423-4444.

A novel hybrid model for air quality index forecasting based on two-phase decomposition technique and modified extreme learning machine.

PubMed

Wang, Deyun; Wei, Shuai; Luo, Hongyuan; Yue, Chenqiang; Grunder, Olivier

2017-02-15

The randomness, non-stationarity and irregularity of air quality index (AQI) series bring the difficulty of AQI forecasting. To enhance forecast accuracy, a novel hybrid forecasting model combining two-phase decomposition technique and extreme learning machine (ELM) optimized by differential evolution (DE) algorithm is developed for AQI forecasting in this paper. In phase I, the complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition (CEEMD) is utilized to decompose the AQI series into a set of intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) with different frequencies; in phase II, in order to further handle the high frequency IMFs which will increase the forecast difficulty, variational mode decomposition (VMD) is employed to decompose the high frequency IMFs into a number of variational modes (VMs). Then, the ELM model optimized by DE algorithm is applied to forecast all the IMFs and VMs. Finally, the forecast value of each high frequency IMF is obtained through adding up the forecast results of all corresponding VMs, and the forecast series of AQI is obtained by aggregating the forecast results of all IMFs. To verify and validate the proposed model, two daily AQI series from July 1, 2014 to June 30, 2016 collected from Beijing and Shanghai located in China are taken as the test cases to conduct the empirical study. The experimental results show that the proposed hybrid model based on two-phase decomposition technique is remarkably superior to all other considered models for its higher forecast accuracy. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Method for Direct Measurement of Cosmic Acceleration by 21-cm Absorption Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Hao-Ran; Zhang, Tong-Jie; Pen, Ue-Li

2014-07-01

So far there is only indirect evidence that the Universe is undergoing an accelerated expansion. The evidence for cosmic acceleration is based on the observation of different objects at different distances and requires invoking the Copernican cosmological principle and Einstein's equations of motion. We examine the direct observability using recession velocity drifts (Sandage-Loeb effect) of 21-cm hydrogen absorption systems in upcoming radio surveys. This measures the change in velocity of the same objects separated by a time interval and is a model-independent measure of acceleration. We forecast that for a CHIME-like survey with a decade time span, we can detect the acceleration of a ΛCDM universe with 5σ confidence. This acceleration test requires modest data analysis and storage changes from the normal processing and cannot be recovered retroactively.

29 CFR 4281.42 - Retroactive payments.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 29 Labor 9 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Retroactive payments. 4281.42 Section 4281.42 Labor Regulations Relating to Labor (Continued) PENSION BENEFIT GUARANTY CORPORATION INSOLVENCY, REORGANIZATION, TERMINATION, AND OTHER RULES APPLICABLE TO MULTIEMPLOYER PLANS DUTIES OF PLAN SPONSOR FOLLOWING MASS...

The infantile psychic trauma from us to Freud: pure trauma, retroactivity and reconstruction.

PubMed

Baranger, M; Baranger, W; Mom, J M

1988-01-01

In the works of Freud, the concept of childhood psychic trauma evolves in the direction of increasing complexity. The authors maintain that this expansion corresponds to a new conception of retroactive temporality (Nachträglich), which is precisely the one we use in the analytic process of reconstruction and historicization from the present toward the past. We are thus led to differentiate the extreme form of the unassimilable 'pure' Trauma, nearly pure death drive, from the retroactively historicized forms which are reintegrated into the continuity of a vital flow of time that we 'invent' in analytic work.

Forecasting outpatient visits using empirical mode decomposition coupled with back-propagation artificial neural networks optimized by particle swarm optimization

PubMed Central

Huang, Daizheng; Wu, Zhihui

2017-01-01

Accurately predicting the trend of outpatient visits by mathematical modeling can help policy makers manage hospitals effectively, reasonably organize schedules for human resources and finances, and appropriately distribute hospital material resources. In this study, a hybrid method based on empirical mode decomposition and back-propagation artificial neural networks optimized by particle swarm optimization is developed to forecast outpatient visits on the basis of monthly numbers. The data outpatient visits are retrieved from January 2005 to December 2013 and first obtained as the original time series. Second, the original time series is decomposed into a finite and often small number of intrinsic mode functions by the empirical mode decomposition technique. Third, a three-layer back-propagation artificial neural network is constructed to forecast each intrinsic mode functions. To improve network performance and avoid falling into a local minimum, particle swarm optimization is employed to optimize the weights and thresholds of back-propagation artificial neural networks. Finally, the superposition of forecasting results of the intrinsic mode functions is regarded as the ultimate forecasting value. Simulation indicates that the proposed method attains a better performance index than the other four methods. PMID:28222194

Forecasting outpatient visits using empirical mode decomposition coupled with back-propagation artificial neural networks optimized by particle swarm optimization.

PubMed

Huang, Daizheng; Wu, Zhihui

2017-01-01

Accurately predicting the trend of outpatient visits by mathematical modeling can help policy makers manage hospitals effectively, reasonably organize schedules for human resources and finances, and appropriately distribute hospital material resources. In this study, a hybrid method based on empirical mode decomposition and back-propagation artificial neural networks optimized by particle swarm optimization is developed to forecast outpatient visits on the basis of monthly numbers. The data outpatient visits are retrieved from January 2005 to December 2013 and first obtained as the original time series. Second, the original time series is decomposed into a finite and often small number of intrinsic mode functions by the empirical mode decomposition technique. Third, a three-layer back-propagation artificial neural network is constructed to forecast each intrinsic mode functions. To improve network performance and avoid falling into a local minimum, particle swarm optimization is employed to optimize the weights and thresholds of back-propagation artificial neural networks. Finally, the superposition of forecasting results of the intrinsic mode functions is regarded as the ultimate forecasting value. Simulation indicates that the proposed method attains a better performance index than the other four methods.

24 CFR 888.315 - Restrictions on retroactive payments.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... PROGRAM, SECTION 202 SUPPORTIVE HOUSING FOR THE ELDERLY PROGRAM AND SECTION 811 SUPPORTIVE HOUSING FOR PERSONS WITH DISABILITIES PROGRAM) SECTION 8 HOUSING ASSISTANCE PAYMENTS PROGRAM-FAIR MARKET RENTS AND... Elderly or Handicapped, and Special Allocations Projects § 888.315 Restrictions on retroactive payments...

Predicting areas of sustainable error growth in quasigeostrophic flows using perturbation alignment properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rivière, G.; Hua, B. L.

2004-10-01

A new perturbation initialization method is used to quantify error growth due to inaccuracies of the forecast model initial conditions in a quasigeostrophic box ocean model describing a wind-driven double gyre circulation. This method is based on recent analytical results on Lagrangian alignment dynamics of the perturbation velocity vector in quasigeostrophic flows. More specifically, it consists in initializing a unique perturbation from the sole knowledge of the control flow properties at the initial time of the forecast and whose velocity vector orientation satisfies a Lagrangian equilibrium criterion. This Alignment-based Initialization method is hereafter denoted as the AI method.In terms of spatial distribution of the errors, we have compared favorably the AI error forecast with the mean error obtained with a Monte-Carlo ensemble prediction. It is shown that the AI forecast is on average as efficient as the error forecast initialized with the leading singular vector for the palenstrophy norm, and significantly more efficient than that for total energy and enstrophy norms. Furthermore, a more precise examination shows that the AI forecast is systematically relevant for all control flows whereas the palenstrophy singular vector forecast leads sometimes to very good scores and sometimes to very bad ones.A principal component analysis at the final time of the forecast shows that the AI mode spatial structure is comparable to that of the first eigenvector of the error covariance matrix for a "bred mode" ensemble. Furthermore, the kinetic energy of the AI mode grows at the same constant rate as that of the "bred modes" from the initial time to the final time of the forecast and is therefore characterized by a sustained phase of error growth. In this sense, the AI mode based on Lagrangian dynamics of the perturbation velocity orientation provides a rationale of the "bred mode" behavior.

Proactive and retroactive transfer of middle age adults in a sequential motor learning task.

PubMed

Verneau, Marion; van der Kamp, John; Savelsbergh, Geert J P; de Looze, Michiel P

2015-03-01

We assessed the effects of aging in the transfer of motor learning in a sequential manual assembly task that is representative for real working conditions. On two different days, young (18-30 years) and middle-aged adults (50-65 years) practiced to build two products that consisted of the same six components but which had to be assembled in a partly different order. Assembly accuracy and movement time during tests, which were performed before and after the practice sessions, were compared to determine proactive and retroactive transfer. The results showed proactive facilitation (i.e., benefits from having learned the first product on learning the second one) in terms of an overall shortening of movement time in both age-groups. In addition, only the middle-aged adults were found to show sequence-specific proactive facilitation, in which the shortening of movement time was limited to components that had the same the order in the two products. Most likely, however, the sequence-specific transfer was an epiphenomenon of the comparatively low rate of learning among the middle-aged adults. The results, however, did reveal genuine differences between the groups for retroactive transfer (i.e., effects from learning the second product on performance of the first). Middle-aged adults tended to show more pronounced retroactive interference in terms of a general decrease in accuracy, while younger adults showed sequence-specific retroactive facilitation (i.e., shortening of movement times for components that had the same order in the two products), but only when they were fully accurate. Together this suggests that in the learning of sequential motor tasks the effects of age are more marked for retroactive transfer than for proactive transfer. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

5 CFR 511.703 - Retroactive effective date.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... CLASSIFICATION UNDER THE GENERAL SCHEDULE Effective Dates of Position Classification Actions or Decisions § 511... if the employee is wrongfully demoted. (b) Downgrading. (1) The effective date of a classification appellate certificate or agency appellate decision can be retroactive only if it corrects a classification...

Modular cell biology: retroactivity and insulation

PubMed Central

Del Vecchio, Domitilla; Ninfa, Alexander J; Sontag, Eduardo D

2008-01-01

Modularity plays a fundamental role in the prediction of the behavior of a system from the behavior of its components, guaranteeing that the properties of individual components do not change upon interconnection. Just as electrical, hydraulic, and other physical systems often do not display modularity, nor do many biochemical systems, and specifically, genetic networks. Here, we study the effect of interconnections on the input–output dynamic characteristics of transcriptional components, focusing on a property, which we call ‘retroactivity', that plays a role analogous to non-zero output impedance in electrical systems. In transcriptional networks, retroactivity is large when the amount of transcription factor is comparable to, or smaller than, the amount of promoter-binding sites, or when the affinity of such binding sites is high. To attenuate the effect of retroactivity, we propose a feedback mechanism inspired by the design of amplifiers in electronics. We introduce, in particular, a mechanism based on a phosphorylation–dephosphorylation cycle. This mechanism enjoys a remarkable insulation property, due to the fast timescales of the phosphorylation and dephosphorylation reactions. PMID:18277378

5 CFR 1605.13 - Back pay awards and other retroactive pay adjustments.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

...) The employing agency must give the participant the following options for electing makeup contributions... makeup contributions; or (ii) Instead of making contributions for the period of separation in accordance... deducted before payment or other retroactive pay adjustment. Employee makeup contributions required under...

Proactive and Retroactive Effects of Negative Suggestion

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brown, Alan S.; Brown, Christine M.; Mosbacher, Joy L.; Dryden, W. Erich

2006-01-01

The negative effects of false information presented either prior to (proactive interference; PI) or following (retroactive interference; RI) true information was examined with word definitions (Experiment 1) and trivia facts (Experiment 2). Participants were explicitly aware of which information was true and false when shown, and true-false…

The similar effects of verbal and non-verbal intervening tasks on word recall in an elderly population.

PubMed

Williams, B R; Sullivan, S K; Morra, L F; Williams, J R; Donovick, P J

2014-01-01

Vulnerability to retroactive interference has been shown to increase with cognitive aging. Consistent with the findings of memory and aging literature, the authors of the California Verbal Learning Test-II (CVLT-II) suggest that a non-verbal task be administered during the test's delay interval to minimize the effects of retroactive interference on delayed recall. The goal of the present study was to determine the extent to which retroactive interference caused by non-verbal and verbal intervening tasks affects recall of verbal information in non-demented, older adults. The effects of retroactive interference on recall of words during Long-Delay recall on the California Verbal Learning Test-II (CVLT-II) were evaluated. Participants included 85 adults age 60 and older. During a 20-minute delay interval on the CVLT-II, participants received either a verbal (WAIS-III Vocabulary or Peabody Picture Vocabulary Test-IIIB) or non-verbal (Raven's Standard Progressive Matrices or WAIS-III Block Design) intervening task. Similarly to previous research with young adults (Williams & Donovick, 2008), older adults recalled the same number of words across all groups, regardless of the type of intervening task. These findings suggest that the administration of verbal intervening tasks during the CVLT-II do not elicit more retroactive interference than non-verbal intervening tasks, and thus verbal tasks need not be avoided during the delay interval of the CVLT-II.

26 CFR 301.9100-15T - Election to use retroactive effective date.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... election—(1) In general. An election under this section changes the effective date of certain amendments to... 26 Internal Revenue 18 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Election to use retroactive effective date. 301... (CONTINUED) PROCEDURE AND ADMINISTRATION PROCEDURE AND ADMINISTRATION General Rules Application of Internal...

24 CFR 888.305 - Amount of the retroactive Housing Assistance Payments.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... DIRECT LOAN PROGRAM, SECTION 202 SUPPORTIVE HOUSING FOR THE ELDERLY PROGRAM AND SECTION 811 SUPPORTIVE..., Section 202 Elderly or Handicapped, and Special Allocations Projects § 888.305 Amount of the retroactive... available, submit documentation of occupancy rates, on either an annual or monthly basis, for the same time...

24 CFR 888.305 - Amount of the retroactive Housing Assistance Payments.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... DIRECT LOAN PROGRAM, SECTION 202 SUPPORTIVE HOUSING FOR THE ELDERLY PROGRAM AND SECTION 811 SUPPORTIVE..., Section 202 Elderly or Handicapped, and Special Allocations Projects § 888.305 Amount of the retroactive... available, submit documentation of occupancy rates, on either an annual or monthly basis, for the same time...

Memory without Consolidation: Temporal Distinctiveness Explains Retroactive Interference

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ecker, Ullrich K. H.; Brown, Gordon D. A.; Lewandowsky, Stephan

2015-01-01

Is consolidation needed to account for retroactive interference in free recall? Interfering mental activity during the retention interval of a memory task impairs performance, in particular if the interference occurs in temporal proximity to the encoding of the to-be-remembered (TBR) information. There are at least two rival theoretical accounts…

5 CFR 894.505 - Are retroactive premiums paid with pre-tax dollars (premium conversion)?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 5 Administrative Personnel 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Are retroactive premiums paid with pre-tax dollars (premium conversion)? 894.505 Section 894.505 Administrative Personnel OFFICE OF PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT (CONTINUED) CIVIL SERVICE REGULATIONS (CONTINUED) FEDERAL EMPLOYEES DENTAL AND VISION INSURANCE...

5 CFR 894.505 - Are retroactive premiums paid with pre-tax dollars (premium conversion)?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... 5 Administrative Personnel 2 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Are retroactive premiums paid with pre-tax dollars (premium conversion)? 894.505 Section 894.505 Administrative Personnel OFFICE OF PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT (CONTINUED) CIVIL SERVICE REGULATIONS (CONTINUED) FEDERAL EMPLOYEES DENTAL AND VISION INSURANCE...

20 CFR 416.1202 - Deeming of resources.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... unspent portion of any retroactive payment of family separation allowance an ineligible parent (or... retroactive payment of family separation allowance an ineligible spouse received from one of the uniformed... her ineligible parent who is living in the same household with him or her (as described in § 416.1851...

Tourism forecasting using modified empirical mode decomposition and group method of data handling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yahya, N. A.; Samsudin, R.; Shabri, A.

2017-09-01

In this study, a hybrid model using modified Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) and Group Method of Data Handling (GMDH) model is proposed for tourism forecasting. This approach reconstructs intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) produced by EMD using trial and error method. The new component and the remaining IMFs is then predicted respectively using GMDH model. Finally, the forecasted results for each component are aggregated to construct an ensemble forecast. The data used in this experiment are monthly time series data of tourist arrivals from China, Thailand and India to Malaysia from year 2000 to 2016. The performance of the model is evaluated using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) where conventional GMDH model and EMD-GMDH model are used as benchmark models. Empirical results proved that the proposed model performed better forecasts than the benchmarked models.

24 CFR 888.410 - Notice of eligibility requirements for retroactive payments.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

..., SECTION 202 DIRECT LOAN PROGRAM, SECTION 202 SUPPORTIVE HOUSING FOR THE ELDERLY PROGRAM AND SECTION 811... establishment of the amount of the retroactive payment, as described in § 888.401 (a) and (b), and documentation... owner who is unable to certify must present documentation of an agreement between the current and former...

24 CFR 888.410 - Notice of eligibility requirements for retroactive payments.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

..., SECTION 202 DIRECT LOAN PROGRAM, SECTION 202 SUPPORTIVE HOUSING FOR THE ELDERLY PROGRAM AND SECTION 811... establishment of the amount of the retroactive payment, as described in § 888.401 (a) and (b), and documentation... owner who is unable to certify must present documentation of an agreement between the current and former...

Developmental Differences in the Impact of Contextual Factors on Susceptibility to Retroactive Interference

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Levy-Gigi, Einat; Vakil, Eli

2010-01-01

The influence of contextual similarity on children's recognition memory performance was examined using a retroactive interference paradigm. In the study, 9- and 12-year-olds were randomly assigned to one of two contextual conditions. In both conditions, target and interfering information were presented in distinctive contexts by using different…

20 CFR 10.903 - Is the death gratuity payment applicable retroactively?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... 20 Employees' Benefits 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Is the death gratuity payment applicable...' COMPENSATION ACT, AS AMENDED Death Gratuity § 10.903 Is the death gratuity payment applicable retroactively? An employee's death qualifies for the death gratuity if the employee died on or after October 7, 2001, and...

26 CFR 54.4975-11 - “ESOP” requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

..., 1977. (4) Retroactive amendment. A plan meets the requirements of this section as of the date that it is designated as an ESOP if it is amended retroactively to meet, and in fact does meet, such... such date may remain integrated. However, such plans must not be amended to increase the integration...

26 CFR 54.4975-11 - “ESOP” requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

..., 1977. (4) Retroactive amendment. A plan meets the requirements of this section as of the date that it is designated as an ESOP if it is amended retroactively to meet, and in fact does meet, such... such date may remain integrated. However, such plans must not be amended to increase the integration...

26 CFR 54.4975-11 - “ESOP” requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

..., 1977. (4) Retroactive amendment. A plan meets the requirements of this section as of the date that it is designated as an ESOP if it is amended retroactively to meet, and in fact does meet, such... such date may remain integrated. However, such plans must not be amended to increase the integration...

26 CFR 54.4975-11 - “ESOP” requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

..., 1977. (4) Retroactive amendment. A plan meets the requirements of this section as of the date that it is designated as an ESOP if it is amended retroactively to meet, and in fact does meet, such... such date may remain integrated. However, such plans must not be amended to increase the integration...

42 CFR 412.130 - Retroactive adjustments for incorrectly excluded hospitals and units.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

..., DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES MEDICARE PROGRAM PROSPECTIVE PAYMENT SYSTEMS FOR INPATIENT HOSPITAL SERVICES Payments to Hospitals Under the Prospective Payment Systems § 412.130 Retroactive adjustments for... hospital that was excluded from the prospective payment systems specified in § 412.1(a)(1) or paid under...

Response Requirement and Nature of Interpolated Stories in Retroactive Inhibition in Prose.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Van Mondfrans, Adrian P.; And Others

Retroactive inhibition, a loss of memory due to learning other materials between recall and exposure to the original materials, was investigated in relation to prose. Two variables were manipulated in the study: similarity of interpolated stories (dissimilar or similar), and the response requirements (completion-recall or multiple-choice). The 190…

78 FR 17996 - MCM Rail Services LLC-Petition for Retroactive Exemption-In Sparrows Point, Md.

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-03-25

... LLC--Petition for Retroactive Exemption--In Sparrows Point, Md. AGENCY: Surface Transportation Board... of rail line in Sparrows Point, Md. (the Line). DATES: MCM's supplemental information is due by April... Railroad, and currently named the Baltimore Industrial Railway, is located at 1430 Sparrows Point Boulevard...

20 CFR 10.903 - Is the death gratuity payment applicable retroactively?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 20 Employees' Benefits 1 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Is the death gratuity payment applicable...' COMPENSATION ACT, AS AMENDED Death Gratuity § 10.903 Is the death gratuity payment applicable retroactively? An employee's death qualifies for the death gratuity if the employee died on or after October 7, 2001, and...

20 CFR 10.903 - Is the death gratuity payment applicable retroactively?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... 20 Employees' Benefits 1 2012-04-01 2012-04-01 false Is the death gratuity payment applicable...' COMPENSATION ACT, AS AMENDED Death Gratuity § 10.903 Is the death gratuity payment applicable retroactively? An employee's death qualifies for the death gratuity if the employee died on or after October 7, 2001, and...

20 CFR 10.903 - Is the death gratuity payment applicable retroactively?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... 20 Employees' Benefits 1 2014-04-01 2012-04-01 true Is the death gratuity payment applicable...' COMPENSATION ACT, AS AMENDED Death Gratuity § 10.903 Is the death gratuity payment applicable retroactively? An employee's death qualifies for the death gratuity if the employee died on or after October 7, 2001, and...

20 CFR 10.903 - Is the death gratuity payment applicable retroactively?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... 20 Employees' Benefits 1 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Is the death gratuity payment applicable...' COMPENSATION ACT, AS AMENDED Death Gratuity § 10.903 Is the death gratuity payment applicable retroactively? An employee's death qualifies for the death gratuity if the employee died on or after October 7, 2001, and...

Retroactivity in the Context of Modularly Structured Biomolecular Systems

PubMed Central

Pantoja-Hernández, Libertad; Martínez-García, Juan Carlos

2015-01-01

Synthetic biology has intensively promoted the technical implementation of modular strategies in the fabrication of biological devices. Modules are considered as networks of reactions. The behavior displayed by biomolecular systems results from the information processes carried out by the interconnection of the involved modules. However, in natural systems, module wiring is not a free-of-charge process; as a consequence of interconnection, a reactive phenomenon called retroactivity emerges. This phenomenon is characterized by signals that propagate from downstream modules (the modules that receive the incoming signals upon interconnection) to upstream ones (the modules that send the signals upon interconnection). Such retroactivity signals, depending of their strength, may change and sometimes even disrupt the behavior of modular biomolecular systems. Thus, analysis of retroactivity effects in natural biological and biosynthetic systems is crucial to achieve a deeper understanding of how this interconnection between functionally characterized modules takes place and how it impacts the overall behavior of the involved cell. By discussing the modules interconnection in natural and synthetic biomolecular systems, we propose that such systems should be considered as quasi-modular. PMID:26137457

Measuring Investment in Learning: Can Electrocardiogram Provide an Indication of Cognitive Effort During Learning?

PubMed

Patterson, Jae T; Hart, Amanda; Hansen, Steve; Carter, Michael J; Ditor, David

2016-04-01

Heart rate variability (i.e., low frequency:high frequency ratio) was measured to differentiate invested cognitive effort during the acquisition and retention of a novel task. Participants (12 male, M = 25.1 year, SD = 3.6; 12 female, M = 22.8 year, SD = 1.1) were required to produce Braille equivalents of English letter primes on a standardized keyboard in proactive or retroactive conditions (groups, each n = 12). The correct Braille response was either provided before (i.e., proactively) or after (i.e., retroactively) the participant's response. During acquisition, participants in the proactive group demonstrated shorter study time, greater recall success, and reported lower cognitive investment. Participants in the proactive and retroactive groups did not statistically differ in heart rate variability. For retention, the retroactive group showed greater recall success, lower perceived cognitive effort investment, and lower heart rate variability. The results highlight the usefulness of heart rate variability in discriminating the cognitive effort invested for a recently acquired skill. © The Author(s) 2016.

Multidimensional k-nearest neighbor model based on EEMD for financial time series forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Ningning; Lin, Aijing; Shang, Pengjian

2017-07-01

In this paper, we propose a new two-stage methodology that combines the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) with multidimensional k-nearest neighbor model (MKNN) in order to forecast the closing price and high price of the stocks simultaneously. The modified algorithm of k-nearest neighbors (KNN) has an increasingly wide application in the prediction of all fields. Empirical mode decomposition (EMD) decomposes a nonlinear and non-stationary signal into a series of intrinsic mode functions (IMFs), however, it cannot reveal characteristic information of the signal with much accuracy as a result of mode mixing. So ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD), an improved method of EMD, is presented to resolve the weaknesses of EMD by adding white noise to the original data. With EEMD, the components with true physical meaning can be extracted from the time series. Utilizing the advantage of EEMD and MKNN, the new proposed ensemble empirical mode decomposition combined with multidimensional k-nearest neighbor model (EEMD-MKNN) has high predictive precision for short-term forecasting. Moreover, we extend this methodology to the case of two-dimensions to forecast the closing price and high price of the four stocks (NAS, S&P500, DJI and STI stock indices) at the same time. The results indicate that the proposed EEMD-MKNN model has a higher forecast precision than EMD-KNN, KNN method and ARIMA.

Applying Binary Forecasting Approaches to Induced Seismicity in the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kahue, R.; Shcherbakov, R.

2016-12-01

The Western Canada Sedimentary Basin has been chosen as a focus due to an increase in the recent observed seismicity there which is most likely linked to anthropogenic activities related to unconventional oil and gas exploration. Seismicity caused by these types of activities is called induced seismicity. The occurrence of moderate to larger induced earthquakes in areas where critical infrastructure is present can be potentially problematic. Here we use a binary forecast method to analyze past seismicity and well production data in order to quantify future areas of increased seismicity. This method splits the given region into spatial cells. The binary forecast method used here has been suggested in the past to retroactively forecast large earthquakes occurring globally in areas called alarm cells. An alarm cell, or alert zone, is a bin in which there is a higher likelihood for earthquakes to occur based on previous data. The first method utilizes the cumulative Benioff strain, based on earthquakes that had occurred in each bin above a given magnitude over a time interval called the training period. The second method utilizes the cumulative well production data within each bin. Earthquakes that occurred within an alert zone in the retrospective forecast period contribute to the hit rate, while alert zones that did not have an earthquake occur within them in the forecast period contribute to the false alarm rate. In the resulting analysis the hit rate and false alarm rate are determined after optimizing and modifying the initial parameters using the receiver operating characteristic diagram. It is found that when modifying the cell size and threshold magnitude parameters within various training periods, hit and false alarm rates are obtained for specific regions in Western Canada using both recent seismicity and cumulative well production data. Certain areas are thus shown to be more prone to potential larger earthquakes based on both datasets. This has implications for the potential link between oil and gas production and induced seismicity observed in the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin.

Quasi-most unstable modes: a window to 'À la carte' ensemble diversity?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Homar Santaner, Victor; Stensrud, David J.

2010-05-01

The atmospheric scientific community is nowadays facing the ambitious challenge of providing useful forecasts of atmospheric events that produce high societal impact. The low level of social resilience to false alarms creates tremendous pressure on forecasting offices to issue accurate, timely and reliable warnings.Currently, no operational numerical forecasting system is able to respond to the societal demand for high-resolution (in time and space) predictions in the 12-72h time span. The main reasons for such deficiencies are the lack of adequate observations and the high non-linearity of the numerical models that are currently used. The whole weather forecasting problem is intrinsically probabilistic and current methods aim at coping with the various sources of uncertainties and the error propagation throughout the forecasting system. This probabilistic perspective is often created by generating ensembles of deterministic predictions that are aimed at sampling the most important sources of uncertainty in the forecasting system. The ensemble generation/sampling strategy is a crucial aspect of their performance and various methods have been proposed. Although global forecasting offices have been using ensembles of perturbed initial conditions for medium-range operational forecasts since 1994, no consensus exists regarding the optimum sampling strategy for high resolution short-range ensemble forecasts. Bred vectors, however, have been hypothesized to better capture the growing modes in the highly nonlinear mesoscale dynamics of severe episodes than singular vectors or observation perturbations. Yet even this technique is not able to produce enough diversity in the ensembles to accurately and routinely predict extreme phenomena such as severe weather. Thus, we propose a new method to generate ensembles of initial conditions perturbations that is based on the breeding technique. Given a standard bred mode, a set of customized perturbations is derived with specified amplitudes and horizontal scales. This allows the ensemble to excite growing modes across a wider range of scales. Results show that this approach produces significantly more spread in the ensemble prediction than standard bred modes alone. Several examples that illustrate the benefits from this approach for severe weather forecasts will be provided.

Memory Consequences of Looking Back to Notice Change: Retroactive and Proactive Facilitation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jacoby, Larry L.; Wahlheim, Christopher N.; Kelley, Colleen M.

2015-01-01

Three experiments contrasted recollection of change with differentiation as means of avoiding retroactive interference and proactive interference. We manipulated the extent to which participants looked back to notice change between pairs of cues and targets (A-B, A-D) and measured the effects on later cued recall of either the first or second…

26 CFR 31.3121(k)-2 - Waivers of exemption; original effective date changed retroactively.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... changed retroactively. 31.3121(k)-2 Section 31.3121(k)-2 Internal Revenue INTERNAL REVENUE SERVICE... Revenue Code of 1954) General Provisions § 31.3121(k)-2 Waivers of exemption; original effective date... which filed a certificate under section 3121(k) after 1955 and before August 29, 1958, may file a...

26 CFR 31.3121(k)-2 - Waivers of exemption; original effective date changed retroactively.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... changed retroactively. 31.3121(k)-2 Section 31.3121(k)-2 Internal Revenue INTERNAL REVENUE SERVICE... Revenue Code of 1954) General Provisions § 31.3121(k)-2 Waivers of exemption; original effective date... which filed a certificate under section 3121(k) after 1955 and before August 29, 1958, may file a...

26 CFR 31.3121(k)-2 - Waivers of exemption; original effective date changed retroactively.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... changed retroactively. 31.3121(k)-2 Section 31.3121(k)-2 Internal Revenue INTERNAL REVENUE SERVICE... Revenue Code of 1954) General Provisions § 31.3121(k)-2 Waivers of exemption; original effective date... which filed a certificate under section 3121(k) after 1955 and before August 29, 1958, may file a...

26 CFR 31.3121(k)-2 - Waivers of exemption; original effective date changed retroactively.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... changed retroactively. 31.3121(k)-2 Section 31.3121(k)-2 Internal Revenue INTERNAL REVENUE SERVICE... Revenue Code of 1954) General Provisions § 31.3121(k)-2 Waivers of exemption; original effective date... which filed a certificate under section 3121(k) after 1955 and before August 29, 1958, may file a...

26 CFR 31.3121(k)-2 - Waivers of exemption; original effective date changed retroactively.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... changed retroactively. 31.3121(k)-2 Section 31.3121(k)-2 Internal Revenue INTERNAL REVENUE SERVICE... Revenue Code of 1954) General Provisions § 31.3121(k)-2 Waivers of exemption; original effective date... which filed a certificate under section 3121(k) after 1955 and before August 29, 1958, may file a...

20 CFR 404.408b - Reduction of retroactive monthly social security benefits where supplemental security income (SSI...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... required where there is a change in your month of entitlement or the amount of your social security... 20 Employees' Benefits 2 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Reduction of retroactive monthly social....408b Section 404.408b Employees' Benefits SOCIAL SECURITY ADMINISTRATION FEDERAL OLD-AGE, SURVIVORS AND...

20 CFR 404.408b - Reduction of retroactive monthly social security benefits where supplemental security income (SSI...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... required where there is a change in your month of entitlement or the amount of your social security... 20 Employees' Benefits 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Reduction of retroactive monthly social....408b Section 404.408b Employees' Benefits SOCIAL SECURITY ADMINISTRATION FEDERAL OLD-AGE, SURVIVORS AND...

Cognitive Retroactive Transfer (CRT) of Language Skills among Bilingual Arabic-English Readers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Abu-Rabia, Salim; Shakkour, Wael; Siegel, Linda

2013-01-01

This study examined the effects of an intervention helping struggling readers improve their reading and writing skills in English as a foreign language (L2), and those same skills in Arabic, which was their first language (L1). Transferring linguistic skills from L2 to L1 is termed "cognitive retroactive transfer". Tests were…

Does recall after sleep-dependent memory consolidation reinstate sensitivity to retroactive interference?

PubMed

Deliens, Gaétane; Schmitz, Rémy; Caudron, Isaline; Mary, Alison; Leproult, Rachel; Peigneux, Philippe

2013-01-01

Previous studies have shown that newly encoded memories are more resistant to retroactive interference when participants are allowed to sleep after learning the original material, suggesting a sleep-related strengthening of memories. In the present study, we investigated delayed, long-term effects of sleep vs. sleep deprivation (SD) on the first post-training night on memory consolidation and resistance to interference. On day 1, participants learned a list of unrelated word pairs (AB), either in the morning or in the evening, then spent the post-training night in a sleep or sleep deprivation condition, in a within-subject paradigm. On day 4, at the same time of day, they learned a novel list of word pairs (AC) in which 50% of the word pairs stemmed with the same word than in the AB list, resulting in retroactive interference. Participants had then to recall items from the AB list upon presentation of the "A" stem. Recall was marginally improved in the evening, as compared to the morning learning group. Most importantly, retroactive interference effects were found in the sleep evening group only, contrary to the hypothesis that sleep exerts a protective role against intrusion by novel but similar learning. We tentatively suggest that these results can be explained in the framework of the memory reconsolidation theory, stating that exposure to similar information sets back consolidated items in a labile form again sensitive to retroactive interference. In this context, sleep might not protect against interference but would promote an update of existing episodic memories while preventing saturation of the memory network due to the accumulation of dual traces.

Increased Sensitivity to Proactive and Retroactive Interference in Amnestic Mild Cognitive Impairment: New Insights

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hanseeuw, Bernard J.; Seron, Xavier; Ivanoiu, Adrian

2012-01-01

Background: Increased sensitivity to proactive (PI) and retroactive (RI) interference has been observed in amnestic mild cognitive impairment (aMCI). PI and RI are often explained as being the result of a response competition mechanism. However, patients with aMCI are supposed to suffer mostly from encoding deficits. We hypothesized that in aMCI…

Focusing the Search: Proactive and Retroactive Interference and the Dynamics of Free Recall

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Unsworth, Nash; Brewer, Gene A.; Spillers, Gregory J.

2013-01-01

Targeting information in long-term memory is an important cognitive ability, but one that is not well understood. In this study, 4 experiments were conducted to examine the influence of proactive and retroactive interference on memory targeting. Participants were given either 1 or 2 lists and asked to recall List 1, List 2, or in some cases both…

Reaching back: the relative strength of the retroactive emotional attentional blink

PubMed Central

Ní Choisdealbha, Áine; Piech, Richard M.; Fuller, John K.; Zald, David H.

2017-01-01

Visual stimuli with emotional content appearing in close temporal proximity either before or after a target stimulus can hinder conscious perceptual processing of the target via an emotional attentional blink (EAB). This occurs for targets that appear after the emotional stimulus (forward EAB) and for those appearing before the emotional stimulus (retroactive EAB). Additionally, the traditional attentional blink (AB) occurs because detection of any target hinders detection of a subsequent target. The present study investigated the relations between these different attentional processes. Rapid sequences of landscape images were presented to thirty-one male participants with occasional landscape targets (rotated images). For the forward EAB, emotional or neutral distractor images of people were presented before the target; for the retroactive EAB, such images were also targets and presented after the landscape target. In the latter case, this design allowed investigation of the AB as well. Erotic and gory images caused more EABs than neutral images, but there were no differential effects on the AB. This pattern is striking because while using different target categories (rotated landscapes, people) appears to have eliminated the AB, the retroactive EAB still occurred, offering additional evidence for the power of emotional stimuli over conscious attention. PMID:28255172

Calibration and combination of monthly near-surface temperature and precipitation predictions over Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodrigues, Luis R. L.; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J.; Coelho, Caio A. S.

2018-02-01

A Bayesian method known as the Forecast Assimilation (FA) was used to calibrate and combine monthly near-surface temperature and precipitation outputs from seasonal dynamical forecast systems. The simple multimodel (SMM), a method that combines predictions with equal weights, was used as a benchmark. This research focuses on Europe and adjacent regions for predictions initialized in May and November, covering the boreal summer and winter months. The forecast quality of the FA and SMM as well as the single seasonal dynamical forecast systems was assessed using deterministic and probabilistic measures. A non-parametric bootstrap method was used to account for the sampling uncertainty of the forecast quality measures. We show that the FA performs as well as or better than the SMM in regions where the dynamical forecast systems were able to represent the main modes of climate covariability. An illustration with the near-surface temperature over North Atlantic, the Mediterranean Sea and Middle-East in summer months associated with the well predicted first mode of climate covariability is offered. However, the main modes of climate covariability are not well represented in most situations discussed in this study as the seasonal dynamical forecast systems have limited skill when predicting the European climate. In these situations, the SMM performs better more often.

20 CFR 1002.138 - If the employee receives a retroactive upgrade in the characterization of service, will that...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... 20 Employees' Benefits 3 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false If the employee receives a retroactive upgrade in the characterization of service, will that entitle him or her to claim back wages and benefits... service, will that entitle him or her to claim back wages and benefits lost as of the date of separation...

Retroactive Seniority as a Remedy for Title VII Violations: Relief to Newly Hired and Incumbent Employees in Light of Franks v. Bowman

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stern, Lynne Rothschild

1976-01-01

Franks v. Bowman Transportation Co. set forth the principles for determining whether a seniority system violates Title VII and awarded retroactive seniority to a limited group of employees previously denied employment due to their minority status. This ruling is examined in terms of the rights of non-minority employees. Available from: Loyola…

Does Recall after Sleep-Dependent Memory Consolidation Reinstate Sensitivity to Retroactive Interference?

PubMed Central

Deliens, Gaétane; Schmitz, Rémy; Caudron, Isaline; Mary, Alison; Leproult, Rachel; Peigneux, Philippe

2013-01-01

Previous studies have shown that newly encoded memories are more resistant to retroactive interference when participants are allowed to sleep after learning the original material, suggesting a sleep-related strengthening of memories. In the present study, we investigated delayed, long-term effects of sleep vs. sleep deprivation (SD) on the first post-training night on memory consolidation and resistance to interference. On day 1, participants learned a list of unrelated word pairs (AB), either in the morning or in the evening, then spent the post-training night in a sleep or sleep deprivation condition, in a within-subject paradigm. On day 4, at the same time of day, they learned a novel list of word pairs (AC) in which 50% of the word pairs stemmed with the same word than in the AB list, resulting in retroactive interference. Participants had then to recall items from the AB list upon presentation of the “A” stem. Recall was marginally improved in the evening, as compared to the morning learning group. Most importantly, retroactive interference effects were found in the sleep evening group only, contrary to the hypothesis that sleep exerts a protective role against intrusion by novel but similar learning. We tentatively suggest that these results can be explained in the framework of the memory reconsolidation theory, stating that exposure to similar information sets back consolidated items in a labile form again sensitive to retroactive interference. In this context, sleep might not protect against interference but would promote an update of existing episodic memories while preventing saturation of the memory network due to the accumulation of dual traces. PMID:23874738

Signaling Architectures that Transmit Unidirectional Information Despite Retroactivity.

PubMed

Shah, Rushina; Del Vecchio, Domitilla

2017-08-08

A signaling pathway transmits information from an upstream system to downstream systems, ideally in a unidirectional fashion. A key obstacle to unidirectional transmission is retroactivity, the additional reaction flux that affects a system once its species interact with those of downstream systems. This raises the fundamental question of whether signaling pathways have developed specialized architectures that overcome retroactivity and transmit unidirectional signals. Here, we propose a general procedure based on mathematical analysis that provides an answer to this question. Using this procedure, we analyze the ability of a variety of signaling architectures to transmit one-way (from upstream to downstream) signals, as key biological parameters are tuned. We find that single stage phosphorylation and phosphotransfer systems that transmit signals from a kinase show a stringent design tradeoff that hampers their ability to overcome retroactivity. Interestingly, cascades of these architectures, which are highly represented in nature, can overcome this tradeoff and thus enable unidirectional transmission. By contrast, phosphotransfer systems, and single and double phosphorylation cycles that transmit signals from a substrate, are unable to mitigate retroactivity effects, even when cascaded, and hence are not well suited for unidirectional information transmission. These results are largely independent of the specific reaction-rate constant values, and depend on the topology of the architectures. Our results therefore identify signaling architectures that, allowing unidirectional transmission of signals, embody modular processes that conserve their input/output behavior across multiple contexts. These findings can be used to decompose natural signal transduction networks into modules, and at the same time, they establish a library of devices that can be used in synthetic biology to facilitate modular circuit design. Copyright © 2017 Biophysical Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Forecast of Antarctic Sea Ice and Meteorological Fields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barreira, S.; Orquera, F.

2017-12-01

Since 2001, we have been forecasting the climatic fields of the Antarctic sea ice (SI) and surface air temperature, surface pressure and precipitation anomalies for the Southern Hemisphere at the Meteorological Department of the Argentine Naval Hydrographic Service with different techniques that have evolved with the years. Forecast is based on the results of Principal Components Analysis applied to SI series (S-Mode) that gives patterns of temporal series with validity areas (these series are important to determine which areas in Antarctica will have positive or negative SI anomalies based on what happen in the atmosphere) and, on the other hand, to SI fields (T-Mode) that give us the form of the SI fields anomalies based on a classification of 16 patterns. Each T-Mode pattern has unique atmospheric fields associated to them. Therefore, it is possible to forecast whichever atmosphere variable we decide for the Southern Hemisphere. When the forecast is obtained, each pattern has a probability of occurrence and sometimes it is necessary to compose more than one of them to obtain the final result. S-Mode and T-Mode are monthly updated with new data, for that reason the forecasts improved with the increase of cases since 2001. We used the Monthly Polar Gridded Sea Ice Concentrations database derived from satellite information generated by NASA Team algorithm provided monthly by the National Snow and Ice Data Center of USA that begins in November 1978. Recently, we have been experimenting with multilayer Perceptron (neuronal network) with supervised learning and a back-propagation algorithm to improve the forecast. The Perceptron is the most common Artificial Neural Network topology dedicated to image pattern recognition. It was implemented through the use of temperature and pressure anomalies field images that were associated with a the different sea ice anomaly patterns. The variables analyzed included only composites of surface air temperature and pressure anomalies to simplify the density of input data and avoid a non-converging solution. Sea ice and atmospheric variables forecast can be checked every month at our web page http://www.hidro.gob.ar/smara/sb/sb.asp and at World Meteorological web page (Global Cryosphere Watch) http://globalcryospherewatch.org/state_of_cryo/seaice/.

Toward global mapping of river discharge using satellite images and at-many-stations hydraulic geometry

PubMed Central

Gleason, Colin J.; Smith, Laurence C.

2014-01-01

Rivers provide critical water supply for many human societies and ecosystems, yet global knowledge of their flow rates is poor. We show that useful estimates of absolute river discharge (in cubic meters per second) may be derived solely from satellite images, with no ground-based or a priori information whatsoever. The approach works owing to discovery of a characteristic scaling law uniquely fundamental to natural rivers, here termed a river’s at-many-stations hydraulic geometry. A first demonstration using Landsat Thematic Mapper images over three rivers in the United States, Canada, and China yields absolute discharges agreeing to within 20–30% of traditional in situ gauging station measurements and good tracking of flow changes over time. Within such accuracies, the door appears open for quantifying river resources globally with repeat imaging, both retroactively and henceforth into the future, with strong implications for water resource management, food security, ecosystem studies, flood forecasting, and geopolitics. PMID:24639551

Toward global mapping of river discharge using satellite images and at-many-stations hydraulic geometry.

PubMed

Gleason, Colin J; Smith, Laurence C

2014-04-01

Rivers provide critical water supply for many human societies and ecosystems, yet global knowledge of their flow rates is poor. We show that useful estimates of absolute river discharge (in cubic meters per second) may be derived solely from satellite images, with no ground-based or a priori information whatsoever. The approach works owing to discovery of a characteristic scaling law uniquely fundamental to natural rivers, here termed a river's at-many-stations hydraulic geometry. A first demonstration using Landsat Thematic Mapper images over three rivers in the United States, Canada, and China yields absolute discharges agreeing to within 20-30% of traditional in situ gauging station measurements and good tracking of flow changes over time. Within such accuracies, the door appears open for quantifying river resources globally with repeat imaging, both retroactively and henceforth into the future, with strong implications for water resource management, food security, ecosystem studies, flood forecasting, and geopolitics.

Adaptive Anchoring Model: How Static and Dynamic Presentations of Time Series Influence Judgments and Predictions.

PubMed

Kusev, Petko; van Schaik, Paul; Tsaneva-Atanasova, Krasimira; Juliusson, Asgeir; Chater, Nick

2018-01-01

When attempting to predict future events, people commonly rely on historical data. One psychological characteristic of judgmental forecasting of time series, established by research, is that when people make forecasts from series, they tend to underestimate future values for upward trends and overestimate them for downward ones, so-called trend-damping (modeled by anchoring on, and insufficient adjustment from, the average of recent time series values). Events in a time series can be experienced sequentially (dynamic mode), or they can also be retrospectively viewed simultaneously (static mode), not experienced individually in real time. In one experiment, we studied the influence of presentation mode (dynamic and static) on two sorts of judgment: (a) predictions of the next event (forecast) and (b) estimation of the average value of all the events in the presented series (average estimation). Participants' responses in dynamic mode were anchored on more recent events than in static mode for all types of judgment but with different consequences; hence, dynamic presentation improved prediction accuracy, but not estimation. These results are not anticipated by existing theoretical accounts; we develop and present an agent-based model-the adaptive anchoring model (ADAM)-to account for the difference between processing sequences of dynamically and statically presented stimuli (visually presented data). ADAM captures how variation in presentation mode produces variation in responses (and the accuracy of these responses) in both forecasting and judgment tasks. ADAM's model predictions for the forecasting and judgment tasks fit better with the response data than a linear-regression time series model. Moreover, ADAM outperformed autoregressive-integrated-moving-average (ARIMA) and exponential-smoothing models, while neither of these models accounts for people's responses on the average estimation task. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Cognitive Science published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Cognitive Science Society.

Application of empirical mode decomposition with local linear quantile regression in financial time series forecasting.

PubMed

Jaber, Abobaker M; Ismail, Mohd Tahir; Altaher, Alsaidi M

2014-01-01

This paper mainly forecasts the daily closing price of stock markets. We propose a two-stage technique that combines the empirical mode decomposition (EMD) with nonparametric methods of local linear quantile (LLQ). We use the proposed technique, EMD-LLQ, to forecast two stock index time series. Detailed experiments are implemented for the proposed method, in which EMD-LPQ, EMD, and Holt-Winter methods are compared. The proposed EMD-LPQ model is determined to be superior to the EMD and Holt-Winter methods in predicting the stock closing prices.

Design of agricultural product quality safety retrospective supervision system of Jiangsu province

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Kun

2017-08-01

In store and supermarkets to consumers can trace back agricultural products through the electronic province card to query their origin, planting, processing, packaging, testing and other important information and found that the problems. Quality and safety issues can identify the responsibility of the problem. This paper designs a retroactive supervision system for the quality and safety of agricultural products in Jiangsu Province. Based on the analysis of agricultural production and business process, the goal of Jiangsu agricultural product quality safety traceability system construction is established, and the specific functional requirements and non-functioning requirements of the retroactive system are analyzed, and the target is specified for the specific construction of the retroactive system. The design of the quality and safety traceability system in Jiangsu province contains the design of the overall design, the trace code design and the system function module.

Winter Precipitation in North America and the Pacific-North America Pattern in GEOS-S2Sv2 Seasonal Hindcast

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Li, Zhao; Molod, Andrea; Schubert, Siegfried

2018-01-01

Reliable prediction of precipitation remains one of the most pivotal and complex challenges in seasonal forecasting. Previous studies show that various large-scale climate modes, such as ENSO, PNA and NAO play significant role in winter precipitation variability over the Northern America. The influences are most pronounced in years of strong indices of such climate modes. This study evaluates model bias, predictability and forecast skills of monthly winter precipitation in GEOS5-S2S 2.0 retrospective forecast from 1981 to 2016, with emphasis on the forecast skill of precipitation over North America during the extreme events of ENSO, PNA and NAO by applying EOF and composite analysis.

26 CFR 11.412(c)-7 - Election to treat certain retroactive plan amendments as made on the first day of the plan year.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... amendments as made on the first day of the plan year. 11.412(c)-7 Section 11.412(c)-7 Internal Revenue... treat certain retroactive plan amendments as made on the first day of the plan year. (a) General rule... the date of the close of the first plan year to which the amendment applies and the date on which the...

26 CFR 11.412(c)-7 - Election to treat certain retroactive plan amendments as made on the first day of the plan year.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... amendments as made on the first day of the plan year. 11.412(c)-7 Section 11.412(c)-7 Internal Revenue... treat certain retroactive plan amendments as made on the first day of the plan year. (a) General rule... the date of the close of the first plan year to which the amendment applies and the date on which the...

26 CFR 11.412(c)-7 - Election to treat certain retroactive plan amendments as made on the first day of the plan year.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... amendments as made on the first day of the plan year. 11.412(c)-7 Section 11.412(c)-7 Internal Revenue... treat certain retroactive plan amendments as made on the first day of the plan year. (a) General rule... the date of the close of the first plan year to which the amendment applies and the date on which the...

26 CFR 11.412(c)-7 - Election to treat certain retroactive plan amendments as made on the first day of the plan year.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... amendments as made on the first day of the plan year. 11.412(c)-7 Section 11.412(c)-7 Internal Revenue... treat certain retroactive plan amendments as made on the first day of the plan year. (a) General rule... the date of the close of the first plan year to which the amendment applies and the date on which the...

26 CFR 11.412(c)-7 - Election to treat certain retroactive plan amendments as made on the first day of the plan year.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... amendments as made on the first day of the plan year. 11.412(c)-7 Section 11.412(c)-7 Internal Revenue... treat certain retroactive plan amendments as made on the first day of the plan year. (a) General rule... the date of the close of the first plan year to which the amendment applies and the date on which the...

Crude oil price analysis and forecasting based on variational mode decomposition and independent component analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

E, Jianwei; Bao, Yanling; Ye, Jimin

2017-10-01

As one of the most vital energy resources in the world, crude oil plays a significant role in international economic market. The fluctuation of crude oil price has attracted academic and commercial attention. There exist many methods in forecasting the trend of crude oil price. However, traditional models failed in predicting accurately. Based on this, a hybrid method will be proposed in this paper, which combines variational mode decomposition (VMD), independent component analysis (ICA) and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), called VMD-ICA-ARIMA. The purpose of this study is to analyze the influence factors of crude oil price and predict the future crude oil price. Major steps can be concluded as follows: Firstly, applying the VMD model on the original signal (crude oil price), the modes function can be decomposed adaptively. Secondly, independent components are separated by the ICA, and how the independent components affect the crude oil price is analyzed. Finally, forecasting the price of crude oil price by the ARIMA model, the forecasting trend demonstrates that crude oil price declines periodically. Comparing with benchmark ARIMA and EEMD-ICA-ARIMA, VMD-ICA-ARIMA can forecast the crude oil price more accurately.

Snowmelt runoff modeling in simulation and forecasting modes with the Martinec-Mango model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shafer, B.; Jones, E. B.; Frick, D. M. (Principal Investigator)

1982-01-01

The Martinec-Rango snowmelt runoff model was applied to two watersheds in the Rio Grande basin, Colorado-the South Fork Rio Grande, a drainage encompassing 216 sq mi without reservoirs or diversions and the Rio Grande above Del Norte, a drainage encompassing 1,320 sq mi without major reservoirs. The model was successfully applied to both watersheds when run in a simulation mode for the period 1973-79. This period included both high and low runoff seasons. Central to the adaptation of the model to run in a forecast mode was the need to develop a technique to forecast the shape of the snow cover depletion curves between satellite data points. Four separate approaches were investigated-simple linear estimation, multiple regression, parabolic exponential, and type curve. Only the parabolic exponential and type curve methods were run on the South Fork and Rio Grande watersheds for the 1980 runoff season using satellite snow cover updates when available. Although reasonable forecasts were obtained in certain situations, neither method seemed ready for truly operational forecasts, possibly due to a large amount of estimated climatic data for one or two primary base stations during the 1980 season.

Day-Ahead PM2.5 Concentration Forecasting Using WT-VMD Based Decomposition Method and Back Propagation Neural Network Improved by Differential Evolution

PubMed Central

Wang, Deyun; Liu, Yanling; Luo, Hongyuan; Yue, Chenqiang; Cheng, Sheng

2017-01-01

Accurate PM2.5 concentration forecasting is crucial for protecting public health and atmospheric environment. However, the intermittent and unstable nature of PM2.5 concentration series makes its forecasting become a very difficult task. In order to improve the forecast accuracy of PM2.5 concentration, this paper proposes a hybrid model based on wavelet transform (WT), variational mode decomposition (VMD) and back propagation (BP) neural network optimized by differential evolution (DE) algorithm. Firstly, WT is employed to disassemble the PM2.5 concentration series into a number of subsets with different frequencies. Secondly, VMD is applied to decompose each subset into a set of variational modes (VMs). Thirdly, DE-BP model is utilized to forecast all the VMs. Fourthly, the forecast value of each subset is obtained through aggregating the forecast results of all the VMs obtained from VMD decomposition of this subset. Finally, the final forecast series of PM2.5 concentration is obtained by adding up the forecast values of all subsets. Two PM2.5 concentration series collected from Wuhan and Tianjin, respectively, located in China are used to test the effectiveness of the proposed model. The results demonstrate that the proposed model outperforms all the other considered models in this paper. PMID:28704955

CMB lensing forecasts for constraining the primordial perturbations: adding to the CMB temperature and polarization information

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kasanda, Simon Muya; Moodley, Kavilan, E-mail: simon.muya.kasanda@gmail.com, E-mail: moodleyk41@ukzn.ac.za

2014-12-01

We forecast how current (PLANCK) and future (PRISM) cosmic microwave background (CMB) experiments constrain the adiabatic mode and its admixtures with primordial isocurvature modes. The forecasts are based on measurements of the reconstructed CMB lensing potential and lensing-induced CMB B-mode polarization anisotropies in combination with the CMB temperature and E-mode polarization anisotropies. We first study the characteristic features of the CMB temperature, polarization and lensing spectra for adiabatic and isocurvature modes. We then consider how information from the CMB lensing potential and B-mode polarization induced by lensing can improve constraints on an admixture of adiabatic and three correlated isocurvature modes.more » We find that the CMB lensing spectrum improves constraints on isocurvature modes by at most 10% for the PLANCK and PRISM experiments. The limited improvement is a result of the low amplitude of isocurvature lensing spectra and cancellations between these spectra that render them only slightly detectable. There is a larger gain from using the lensing-induced B-mode polarization spectrum measured by PRISM. In this case constraints on isocurvature mode amplitudes improve by as much as 40% relative to the CMB temperature and E-mode polarization constraints. The addition of both lensing and lensing-induced B-mode polarization information constrains isocurvature mode amplitudes at the few percent level or better. In the case of admixtures of the adiabatic mode with one or two correlated isocurvature modes we find that constraints at the percent level or better are possible. We investigate the dependence of our results to various assumptions in our analysis, such as the inclusion of dark energy parameters, the CMB temperature-lensing correlation, and the presence of primordial tensor modes, and find that these assumptions do not significantly change our main results.« less

Failing the Future: Three Unsuccessful Attempts to Replicate Bem's ‘Retroactive Facilitation of Recall’ Effect

PubMed Central

Ritchie, Stuart J.; Wiseman, Richard; French, Christopher C.

2012-01-01

Nine recently reported parapsychological experiments appear to support the existence of precognition. We describe three pre-registered independent attempts to exactly replicate one of these experiments, ‘retroactive facilitation of recall’, which examines whether performance on a memory test can be influenced by a post-test exercise. All three replication attempts failed to produce significant effects (combined n = 150; combined p = .83, one-tailed) and thus do not support the existence of psychic ability. PMID:22432019

A three-dimensional multivariate representation of atmospheric variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Žagar, Nedjeljka; Jelić, Damjan; Blaauw, Marten; Jesenko, Blaž

2016-04-01

A recently developed MODES software has been applied to the ECMWF analyses and forecasts and to several reanalysis datasets to describe the global variability of the balanced and inertio-gravity (IG) circulation across many scales by considering both mass and wind field and the whole model depth. In particular, the IG spectrum, which has only recently become observable in global datasets, can be studied simultaneously in the mass field and wind field and considering the whole model depth. MODES is open-access software that performs the normal-mode function decomposition of the 3D global datasets. Its application to the ERA Interim dataset reveals several aspects of the large-scale circulation after it has been partitioned into the linearly balanced and IG components. The global energy distribution is dominated by the balanced energy while the IG modes contribute around 8% of the total wave energy. However, on subsynoptic scales IG energy dominates and it is associated with the main features of tropical variability on all scales. The presented energy distribution and features of the zonally-averaged and equatorial circulation provide a reference for the intercomparison of several reanalysis datasets and for the validation of climate models. Features of the global IG circulation are compared in ERA Interim, MERRA and JRA reanalysis datasets and in several CMIP5 models. Since October 2014 the operational medium-range forecasts of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) have been analyzed by MODES daily and an online archive of all the outputs is available at http://meteo.fmf.uni-lj.si/MODES. New outputs are made available daily based on the 00 UTC run and subsequent 12-hour forecasts up to 240-hour forecast. In addition to the energy spectra and horizontal circulation on selected levels for the balanced and IG components, the equatorial Kelvin waves are presented in time and space as the most energetic tropical IG modes propagating vertically and along the equator from its main generation regions in the upper troposphere over the Indian and Pacific region. The validation of the 10-day ECMWF forecasts with analyses in the modal space suggests a lack of variability in the tropics in the medium range. Reference: Žagar, N. et al., 2015: Normal-mode function representation of global 3-D data sets: open-access software for the atmospheric research community. Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 1169-1195, doi:10.5194/gmd-8-1169-2015 Žagar, N., R. Buizza, and J. Tribbia, 2015: A three-dimensional multivariate modal analysis of atmospheric predictability with application to the ECMWF ensemble. J. Atmos. Sci., 72, 4423-4444 The MODES software is available from http://meteo.fmf.uni-lj.si/MODES.

Focusing the search: proactive and retroactive interference and the dynamics of free recall.

PubMed

Unsworth, Nash; Brewer, Gene A; Spillers, Gregory J

2013-11-01

Targeting information in long-term memory is an important cognitive ability, but one that is not well understood. In this study, 4 experiments were conducted to examine the influence of proactive and retroactive interference on memory targeting. Participants were given either 1 or 2 lists and asked to recall List 1, List 2, or in some cases both lists. Multiple dependent measures were explored including the proportion of items recalled, number of intrusions output, and recall latency to arbitrate between 4 extant accounts of memory targeting. In general, recalling either List 1 or List 2 resulted in lower probability of recall, recall of more intrusions, and longer recall latencies compared to when recalling a list alone, suggesting both proactive and retroactive interference. These results suggest that long-term memory targeting is guided by noisy temporal-contextual cues (unless other salient cues are present) that activate both relevant and irrelevant memoranda that are then subjected to a postretrieval monitoring process. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

Evaluation of a new microphysical aerosol module in the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woodhouse, Matthew; Mann, Graham; Carslaw, Ken; Morcrette, Jean-Jacques; Schulz, Michael; Kinne, Stefan; Boucher, Olivier

2013-04-01

The Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate II (MACC-II) project will provide a system for monitoring and predicting atmospheric composition. As part of the first phase of MACC, the GLOMAP-mode microphysical aerosol scheme (Mann et al., 2010, GMD) was incorporated within the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System (IFS). The two-moment modal GLOMAP-mode scheme includes new particle formation, condensation, coagulation, cloud-processing, and wet and dry deposition. GLOMAP-mode is already incorporated as a module within the TOMCAT chemistry transport model and within the UK Met Office HadGEM3 general circulation model. The microphysical, process-based GLOMAP-mode scheme allows an improved representation of aerosol size and composition and can simulate aerosol evolution in the troposphere and stratosphere. The new aerosol forecasting and re-analysis system (known as IFS-GLOMAP) will also provide improved boundary conditions for regional air quality forecasts, and will benefit from assimilation of observed aerosol optical depths in near real time. Presented here is an evaluation of the performance of the IFS-GLOMAP system in comparison to in situ aerosol mass and number measurements, and remotely-sensed aerosol optical depth measurements. Future development will provide a fully-coupled chemistry-aerosol scheme, and the capability to resolve nitrate aerosol.

Improving forecasting accuracy of medium and long-term runoff using artificial neural network based on EEMD decomposition.

PubMed

Wang, Wen-chuan; Chau, Kwok-wing; Qiu, Lin; Chen, Yang-bo

2015-05-01

Hydrological time series forecasting is one of the most important applications in modern hydrology, especially for the effective reservoir management. In this research, an artificial neural network (ANN) model coupled with the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) is presented for forecasting medium and long-term runoff time series. First, the original runoff time series is decomposed into a finite and often small number of intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) and a residual series using EEMD technique for attaining deeper insight into the data characteristics. Then all IMF components and residue are predicted, respectively, through appropriate ANN models. Finally, the forecasted results of the modeled IMFs and residual series are summed to formulate an ensemble forecast for the original annual runoff series. Two annual reservoir runoff time series from Biuliuhe and Mopanshan in China, are investigated using the developed model based on four performance evaluation measures (RMSE, MAPE, R and NSEC). The results obtained in this work indicate that EEMD can effectively enhance forecasting accuracy and the proposed EEMD-ANN model can attain significant improvement over ANN approach in medium and long-term runoff time series forecasting. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evolving forecasting classifications and applications in health forecasting

PubMed Central

Soyiri, Ireneous N; Reidpath, Daniel D

2012-01-01

Health forecasting forewarns the health community about future health situations and disease episodes so that health systems can better allocate resources and manage demand. The tools used for developing and measuring the accuracy and validity of health forecasts commonly are not defined although they are usually adapted forms of statistical procedures. This review identifies previous typologies used in classifying the forecasting methods commonly used in forecasting health conditions or situations. It then discusses the strengths and weaknesses of these methods and presents the choices available for measuring the accuracy of health-forecasting models, including a note on the discrepancies in the modes of validation. PMID:22615533

Evaluating sub-seasonal skill in probabilistic forecasts of Atmospheric Rivers and associated extreme events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Subramanian, A. C.; Lavers, D.; Matsueda, M.; Shukla, S.; Cayan, D. R.; Ralph, M.

2017-12-01

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) - elongated plumes of intense moisture transport - are a primary source of hydrological extremes, water resources and impactful weather along the West Coast of North America and Europe. There is strong demand in the water management, societal infrastructure and humanitarian sectors for reliable sub-seasonal forecasts, particularly of extreme events, such as floods and droughts so that actions to mitigate disastrous impacts can be taken with sufficient lead-time. Many recent studies have shown that ARs in the Pacific and the Atlantic are modulated by large-scale modes of climate variability. Leveraging the improved understanding of how these large-scale climate modes modulate the ARs in these two basins, we use the state-of-the-art multi-model forecast systems such as the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) and the Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) database to help inform and assess the probabilistic prediction of ARs and related extreme weather events over the North American and European West Coasts. We will present results from evaluating probabilistic forecasts of extreme precipitation and AR activity at the sub-seasonal scale. In particular, results from the comparison of two winters (2015-16 and 2016-17) will be shown, winters which defied canonical El Niño teleconnection patterns over North America and Europe. We further extend this study to analyze probabilistic forecast skill of AR events in these two basins and the variability in forecast skill during certain regimes of large-scale climate modes.

Forecasting stochastic neural network based on financial empirical mode decomposition.

PubMed

Wang, Jie; Wang, Jun

2017-06-01

In an attempt to improve the forecasting accuracy of stock price fluctuations, a new one-step-ahead model is developed in this paper which combines empirical mode decomposition (EMD) with stochastic time strength neural network (STNN). The EMD is a processing technique introduced to extract all the oscillatory modes embedded in a series, and the STNN model is established for considering the weight of occurrence time of the historical data. The linear regression performs the predictive availability of the proposed model, and the effectiveness of EMD-STNN is revealed clearly through comparing the predicted results with the traditional models. Moreover, a new evaluated method (q-order multiscale complexity invariant distance) is applied to measure the predicted results of real stock index series, and the empirical results show that the proposed model indeed displays a good performance in forecasting stock market fluctuations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Four-Stage Hybrid Model for Hydrological Time Series Forecasting

PubMed Central

Di, Chongli; Yang, Xiaohua; Wang, Xiaochao

2014-01-01

Hydrological time series forecasting remains a difficult task due to its complicated nonlinear, non-stationary and multi-scale characteristics. To solve this difficulty and improve the prediction accuracy, a novel four-stage hybrid model is proposed for hydrological time series forecasting based on the principle of ‘denoising, decomposition and ensemble’. The proposed model has four stages, i.e., denoising, decomposition, components prediction and ensemble. In the denoising stage, the empirical mode decomposition (EMD) method is utilized to reduce the noises in the hydrological time series. Then, an improved method of EMD, the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD), is applied to decompose the denoised series into a number of intrinsic mode function (IMF) components and one residual component. Next, the radial basis function neural network (RBFNN) is adopted to predict the trend of all of the components obtained in the decomposition stage. In the final ensemble prediction stage, the forecasting results of all of the IMF and residual components obtained in the third stage are combined to generate the final prediction results, using a linear neural network (LNN) model. For illustration and verification, six hydrological cases with different characteristics are used to test the effectiveness of the proposed model. The proposed hybrid model performs better than conventional single models, the hybrid models without denoising or decomposition and the hybrid models based on other methods, such as the wavelet analysis (WA)-based hybrid models. In addition, the denoising and decomposition strategies decrease the complexity of the series and reduce the difficulties of the forecasting. With its effective denoising and accurate decomposition ability, high prediction precision and wide applicability, the new model is very promising for complex time series forecasting. This new forecast model is an extension of nonlinear prediction models. PMID:25111782

Transportation Sector Model of the National Energy Modeling System. Volume 1

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

1998-01-01

This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Transportation Model (TRAN). The report catalogues and describes the model assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, model source code, and forecast results generated by the model. The NEMS Transportation Model comprises a series of semi-independent models which address different aspects of the transportation sector. The primary purpose of this model is to provide mid-term forecasts of transportation energy demand by fuel type including, but not limited to, motor gasoline, distillate, jet fuel, and alternative fuels (such as CNG) not commonly associated with transportation. Themore » current NEMS forecast horizon extends to the year 2010 and uses 1990 as the base year. Forecasts are generated through the separate consideration of energy consumption within the various modes of transport, including: private and fleet light-duty vehicles; aircraft; marine, rail, and truck freight; and various modes with minor overall impacts, such as mass transit and recreational boating. This approach is useful in assessing the impacts of policy initiatives, legislative mandates which affect individual modes of travel, and technological developments. The model also provides forecasts of selected intermediate values which are generated in order to determine energy consumption. These elements include estimates of passenger travel demand by automobile, air, or mass transit; estimates of the efficiency with which that demand is met; projections of vehicle stocks and the penetration of new technologies; and estimates of the demand for freight transport which are linked to forecasts of industrial output. Following the estimation of energy demand, TRAN produces forecasts of vehicular emissions of the following pollutants by source: oxides of sulfur, oxides of nitrogen, total carbon, carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, and volatile organic compounds.« less

A four-stage hybrid model for hydrological time series forecasting.

PubMed

Di, Chongli; Yang, Xiaohua; Wang, Xiaochao

2014-01-01

Hydrological time series forecasting remains a difficult task due to its complicated nonlinear, non-stationary and multi-scale characteristics. To solve this difficulty and improve the prediction accuracy, a novel four-stage hybrid model is proposed for hydrological time series forecasting based on the principle of 'denoising, decomposition and ensemble'. The proposed model has four stages, i.e., denoising, decomposition, components prediction and ensemble. In the denoising stage, the empirical mode decomposition (EMD) method is utilized to reduce the noises in the hydrological time series. Then, an improved method of EMD, the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD), is applied to decompose the denoised series into a number of intrinsic mode function (IMF) components and one residual component. Next, the radial basis function neural network (RBFNN) is adopted to predict the trend of all of the components obtained in the decomposition stage. In the final ensemble prediction stage, the forecasting results of all of the IMF and residual components obtained in the third stage are combined to generate the final prediction results, using a linear neural network (LNN) model. For illustration and verification, six hydrological cases with different characteristics are used to test the effectiveness of the proposed model. The proposed hybrid model performs better than conventional single models, the hybrid models without denoising or decomposition and the hybrid models based on other methods, such as the wavelet analysis (WA)-based hybrid models. In addition, the denoising and decomposition strategies decrease the complexity of the series and reduce the difficulties of the forecasting. With its effective denoising and accurate decomposition ability, high prediction precision and wide applicability, the new model is very promising for complex time series forecasting. This new forecast model is an extension of nonlinear prediction models.

Disruption Event Characterization and Forecasting in Tokamaks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berkery, J. W.; Sabbagh, S. A.; Park, Y. S.; Ahn, J. H.; Jiang, Y.; Riquezes, J. D.; Gerhardt, S. P.; Myers, C. E.

2017-10-01

The Disruption Event Characterization and Forecasting (DECAF) code, being developed to meet the challenging goal of high reliability disruption prediction in tokamaks, automates data analysis to determine chains of events that lead to disruptions and to forecast their evolution. The relative timing of magnetohydrodynamic modes and other events including plasma vertical displacement, loss of boundary control, proximity to density limits, reduction of safety factor, and mismatch of the measured and desired plasma current are considered. NSTX/-U databases are examined with analysis expanding to DIII-D, KSTAR, and TCV. Characterization of tearing modes has determined mode bifurcation frequency and locking points. In an NSTX database exhibiting unstable resistive wall modes (RWM), the RWM event and loss of boundary control event were found in 100%, and the vertical displacement event in over 90% of cases. A reduced kinetic RWM stability physics model is evaluated to determine the proximity of discharges to marginal stability. The model shows high success as a disruption predictor (greater than 85%) with relatively low false positive rate. Supported by US DOE Contracts DE-FG02-99ER54524, DE-AC02-09CH11466, and DE-SC0016614.

Residential Saudi load forecasting using analytical model and Artificial Neural Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Al-Harbi, Ahmad Abdulaziz

In recent years, load forecasting has become one of the main fields of study and research. Short Term Load Forecasting (STLF) is an important part of electrical power system operation and planning. This work investigates the applicability of different approaches; Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) and hybrid analytical models to forecast residential load in Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). These two techniques are based on model human modes behavior formulation. These human modes represent social, religious, official occasions and environmental parameters impact. The analysis is carried out on residential areas for three regions in two countries exposed to distinct people activities and weather conditions. The collected data are for Al-Khubar and Yanbu industrial city in KSA, in addition to Seattle, USA to show the validity of the proposed models applied on residential load. For each region, two models are proposed. First model is next hour load forecasting while second model is next day load forecasting. Both models are analyzed using the two techniques. The obtained results for ANN next hour models yield very accurate results for all areas while relatively reasonable results are achieved when using hybrid analytical model. For next day load forecasting, the two approaches yield satisfactory results. Comparative studies were conducted to prove the effectiveness of the models proposed.

AIR QUALITY FORECAST VERIFICATION USING SATELLITE DATA

EPA Science Inventory

NOAA 's operational geostationary satellite retrievals of aerosol optical depths (AODs) were used to verify National Weather Service (NWS) experimental (research mode) particulate matter (PM2.5) forecast guidance issued during the summer 2004 International Consortium for Atmosp...

Classification and Analysis of Four Types of Elevated Nocturnal Convective Initiation During Summer 2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stelten, S. A.; Gallus, W. A., Jr.

2015-12-01

A large portion of precipitation seen in the Great Plains region of the United States falls from nocturnal convection. Quite often, nocturnally initiated convection may grow upscale into a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) that in turn may cause high impact weather events such as severe wind, flooding, and even tornadoes. Thus, correctly predicting nocturnal convective initiation is an integral part of forecasting for the Great Plains. Unfortunately, it is also one of the most challenging aspects of forecasting for this region. Many forecasters familiar with the Great Plains region have noted that elevated nocturnal convective initiation seems to favor a few distinct and rather diverse modes, which pose varying degrees of forecasting difficulties. This study investigates four of these modes, including initiation caused by the interaction of the low level jet and a frontal feature, initiation at the nose of the low level jet without the presence of a frontal feature, linear features ahead of and perpendicular to a forward propagating MCS, and initiation occurring with no discernible large scale forcing mechanism. Improving elevated nocturnal convective initiation forecasts was one of the primary goals of the Plains Elevated Convection At Night (PECAN) field campaign that took place from June 1 to July 15, 2015, which collected a wealth of convective initiation data. To coincide with these data sets, nocturnal convective initiation episodes from the 2015 summer season were classified into each of the aforementioned groups. This allowed for a thorough investigation of the frequency of each type of initiation event, as well as identification of typical characteristics of the atmosphere (forcing mechanisms present, available instability, strength/location of low level jet, etc.) during each event type. Then, using archived model data and the vast data sets collected during the PECAN field campaign, model performance during PECAN for each convective initiation mode was compared to the high quality data sets in order to flesh out why certain convective initiation modes may be more difficult to forecast than others.

Subseasonal forecast skills and biases of global summer monsoons in the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Xiangwen; Yang, Song; Li, Qiaoping; Kumar, Arun; Weaver, Scott; Liu, Shi

2014-03-01

Subseasonal forecast skills and biases of global summer monsoons are diagnosed using daily data from the hindcasts of 45-day integrations by the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2. Predictions for subseasonal variability of zonal wind and precipitation are generally more skillful over the Asian and Australian monsoon regions than other monsoon regions. Climatologically, forecasts for the variations of dynamical monsoon indices have high skills at leads of about 2 weeks. However, apparent interannual differences exist, with high skills up to 5 weeks in exceptional cases. Comparisons for the relationships of monsoon indices with atmospheric circulation and precipitation patterns between skillful and unskillful forecasts indicate that skills for subseasonal variability of a monsoon index depend partially on the degree to which the observed variability of the index attributes to the variation of large-scale circulation. Thus, predictions are often more skillful when the index is closely linked to atmospheric circulation over a broad region than over a regional and narrow range. It is also revealed that, the subseasonal variations of biases of winds, precipitation, and surface temperature over various monsoon regions are captured by a first mode with seasonally independent biases and a second mode with apparent phase transition of biases during summer. The first mode indicates the dominance of overall weaker-than-observed summer monsoons over major monsoon regions. However, at certain stages of monsoon evolution, these underestimations are regionally offset or intensified by the time evolving biases portrayed by the second mode. This feature may be partially related to factors such as the shifts of subtropical highs and intertropical convergence zones, the reversal of biases of surface temperature over some monsoon regions, and the transition of regional circulation system. The significant geographical differences in bias growth with increasing lead time reflect the distinctions of initial memory capability of the climate system over different monsoon regions.

Targeted observations to improve tropical cyclone track forecasts in the Atlantic and eastern Pacific basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aberson, Sim David

In 1997, the National Hurricane Center and the Hurricane Research Division began conducting operational synoptic surveillance missions with the Gulfstream IV-SP jet aircraft to improve operational forecast models. During the first two years, twenty-four missions were conducted around tropical cyclones threatening the continental United States, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands. Global Positioning System dropwindsondes were released from the aircraft at 150--200 km intervals along the flight track in the tropical cyclone environment to obtain wind, temperature, and humidity profiles from flight level (around 150 hPa) to the surface. The observations were processed and formatted aboard the aircraft and transmitted to the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). There, they were ingested into the Global Data Assimilation System that subsequently provides initial and time-dependent boundary conditions for numerical models that forecast tropical cyclone track and intensity. Three dynamical models were employed in testing the targeting and sampling strategies. With the assimilation into the numerical guidance of all the observations gathered during the surveillance missions, only the 12-h Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Hurricane Model forecast showed statistically significant improvement. Neither the forecasts from the Aviation run of the Global Spectral Model nor the shallow-water VICBAR model were improved with the assimilation of the dropwindsonde data. This mediocre result is found to be due mainly to the difficulty in operationally quantifying the storm-motion vector used to create accurate synthetic data to represent the tropical cyclone vortex in the models. A secondary limit on forecast improvements from the surveillance missions is the limited amount of data provided by the one surveillance aircraft in regular missions. The inability of some surveillance missions to surround the tropical cyclone with dropwindsonde observations is a possible third limit, though the results are inconclusive. Due to limited aircraft resources, optimal observing strategies for these missions must be developed. Since observations in areas of decaying error modes are unlikely to have large impact on subsequent forecasts, such strategies should be based on taking observations in those geographic locations corresponding to the most rapidly growing error modes in the numerical models and on known deficiencies in current data assimilation systems. Here, the most rapidly growing modes are represented by areas of large forecast spread in the NCEP bred-mode global ensemble forecasting system. The sampling strategy requires sampling the entire target region at approximately the same resolution as the North American rawinsonde network to limit the possibly spurious spread of information from dropwindsonde observations into data-sparse regions where errors are likely to grow. When only the subset of data in these fully-sampled target regions is assimilated into the numerical models, statistically significant reduction of the track forecast errors of up to 25% within the critical first two days of the forecast are seen. These model improvements are comparable with the cumulative business-as-usual track forecast model improvements expected over eighteen years.

The Role of a Lid in the 31 May 1985 Tornado Outbreak

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-05-01

severe convection. Subjective analysis necessary to use this mode], however, is much too time consuming for operational forecasting . Therefore, a...analysis necessary to use this conceptual model, however, is much too time consuming for operational forecasting . Therefore, a computer application was...the forecasting of these systems continue to be desirable. Most severe convective storms in mid-latitudes are mesoscale phenomena. The term mesoscale

Predicting the Dominant Patterns of Subseasonal Variability of Wintertime Surface Air Temperature in Extratropical Northern Hemisphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Hai

2018-05-01

Skillfully predicting persistent extreme temperature anomalies more than 10 days in advance remains a challenge although it is of great value to the society. Here the two leading modes of subseasonal variability of surface air temperature over the extratropical Northern Hemisphere in boreal winter are identified with pentad (5 days) averaged data. They are well separated geographically, dominating temperature variability in North America and Eurasia, respectively. There exists a two-pentad lagged correlation between these two modes, implying an intercontinental link of temperature variability. Forecast skill of these two modes is evaluated based on three operational subseasonal prediction models. The results show that useful forecasts of the Eurasian mode (EOF2) can be achieved four pentads in advance, which is more skillful than the North American mode (EOF1). EOF2 is found to benefit from the Madden-Julian Oscillation signal in the initial condition.

Daily air quality index forecasting with hybrid models: A case in China.

PubMed

Zhu, Suling; Lian, Xiuyuan; Liu, Haixia; Hu, Jianming; Wang, Yuanyuan; Che, Jinxing

2017-12-01

Air quality is closely related to quality of life. Air pollution forecasting plays a vital role in air pollution warnings and controlling. However, it is difficult to attain accurate forecasts for air pollution indexes because the original data are non-stationary and chaotic. The existing forecasting methods, such as multiple linear models, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and support vector regression (SVR), cannot fully capture the information from series of pollution indexes. Therefore, new effective techniques need to be proposed to forecast air pollution indexes. The main purpose of this research is to develop effective forecasting models for regional air quality indexes (AQI) to address the problems above and enhance forecasting accuracy. Therefore, two hybrid models (EMD-SVR-Hybrid and EMD-IMFs-Hybrid) are proposed to forecast AQI data. The main steps of the EMD-SVR-Hybrid model are as follows: the data preprocessing technique EMD (empirical mode decomposition) is utilized to sift the original AQI data to obtain one group of smoother IMFs (intrinsic mode functions) and a noise series, where the IMFs contain the important information (level, fluctuations and others) from the original AQI series. LS-SVR is applied to forecast the sum of the IMFs, and then, S-ARIMA (seasonal ARIMA) is employed to forecast the residual sequence of LS-SVR. In addition, EMD-IMFs-Hybrid first separately forecasts the IMFs via statistical models and sums the forecasting results of the IMFs as EMD-IMFs. Then, S-ARIMA is employed to forecast the residuals of EMD-IMFs. To certify the proposed hybrid model, AQI data from June 2014 to August 2015 collected from Xingtai in China are utilized as a test case to investigate the empirical research. In terms of some of the forecasting assessment measures, the AQI forecasting results of Xingtai show that the two proposed hybrid models are superior to ARIMA, SVR, GRNN, EMD-GRNN, Wavelet-GRNN and Wavelet-SVR. Therefore, the proposed hybrid models can be used as effective and simple tools for air pollution forecasting and warning as well as for management. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Forecasting ENSO events: A neural network-extended EOF approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tangang, F.T.; Tang, B.; Monahan, A.H.

The authors constructed neural network models to forecast the sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) for three regions: Nino 4. Nino 3.5, and Nino 3, representing the western-central, the central, and the eastern-central parts of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, respectively. The inputs were the extended empirical orthogonal functions (EEOF) of the sea level pressure (SLP) field that covered the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans and evolved for a duration of 1 yr. The EEOFs greatly reduced the size of the neural networks from those of the authors` earlier papers using EOFs. The Nino 4 region appeared to be the best forecastedmore » region, with useful skills up to a year lead time for the 1982-93 forecast period. By network pruning analysis and spectral analysis, four important inputs were identified: modes 1, 2, and 6 of the SLP EEOFs and the SSTA persistence. Mode 1 characterized the low-frequency oscillation (LFO, with 4-5-yr period), and was seen as the typical ENSO signal, while mode 2, with a period of 2-5 yr, characterized the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) plus the LFO. Mode 6 was dominated by decadal and interdecadal variations. Thus, forecasting ENSO required information from the QBO, and the decadal-interdecadal oscillations. The nonlinearity of the networks tended to increase with lead time and to become stronger for the eastern regions of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. 35 refs., 14 figs., 4 tabs.« less

Stochastic modular analysis for gene circuits: interplay among retroactivity, nonlinearity, and stochasticity.

PubMed

Kim, Kyung Hyuk; Sauro, Herbert M

2015-01-01

This chapter introduces a computational analysis method for analyzing gene circuit dynamics in terms of modules while taking into account stochasticity, system nonlinearity, and retroactivity. (1) ANALOG ELECTRICAL CIRCUIT REPRESENTATION FOR GENE CIRCUITS: A connection between two gene circuit components is often mediated by a transcription factor (TF) and the connection signal is described by the TF concentration. The TF is sequestered to its specific binding site (promoter region) and regulates downstream transcription. This sequestration has been known to affect the dynamics of the TF by increasing its response time. The downstream effect-retroactivity-has been shown to be explicitly described in an electrical circuit representation, as an input capacitance increase. We provide a brief review on this topic. (2) MODULAR DESCRIPTION OF NOISE PROPAGATION: Gene circuit signals are noisy due to the random nature of biological reactions. The noisy fluctuations in TF concentrations affect downstream regulation. Thus, noise can propagate throughout the connected system components. This can cause different circuit components to behave in a statistically dependent manner, hampering a modular analysis. Here, we show that the modular analysis is still possible at the linear noise approximation level. (3) NOISE EFFECT ON MODULE INPUT-OUTPUT RESPONSE: We investigate how to deal with a module input-output response and its noise dependency. Noise-induced phenotypes are described as an interplay between system nonlinearity and signal noise. Lastly, we provide the comprehensive approach incorporating the above three analysis methods, which we call "stochastic modular analysis." This method can provide an analysis framework for gene circuit dynamics when the nontrivial effects of retroactivity, stochasticity, and nonlinearity need to be taken into account.

European Wintertime Windstorms and its Links to Large-Scale Variability Modes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Befort, D. J.; Wild, S.; Walz, M. A.; Knight, J. R.; Lockwood, J. F.; Thornton, H. E.; Hermanson, L.; Bett, P.; Weisheimer, A.; Leckebusch, G. C.

2017-12-01

Winter storms associated with extreme wind speeds and heavy precipitation are the most costly natural hazard in several European countries. Improved understanding and seasonal forecast skill of winter storms will thus help society, policy-makers and (re-) insurance industry to be better prepared for such events. We firstly assess the ability to represent extra-tropical windstorms over the Northern Hemisphere of three seasonal forecast ensemble suites: ECMWF System3, ECMWF System4 and GloSea5. Our results show significant skill for inter-annual variability of windstorm frequency over parts of Europe in two of these forecast suites (ECMWF-S4 and GloSea5) indicating the potential use of current seasonal forecast systems. In a regression model we further derive windstorm variability using the forecasted NAO from the seasonal model suites thus estimating the suitability of the NAO as the only predictor. We find that the NAO as the main large-scale mode over Europe can explain some of the achieved skill and is therefore an important source of variability in the seasonal models. However, our results show that the regression model fails to reproduce the skill level of the directly forecast windstorm frequency over large areas of central Europe. This suggests that the seasonal models also capture other sources of variability/predictability of windstorms than the NAO. In order to investigate which other large-scale variability modes steer the interannual variability of windstorms we develop a statistical model using a Poisson GLM. We find that the Scandinavian Pattern (SCA) in fact explains a larger amount of variability for Central Europe during the 20th century than the NAO. This statistical model is able to skilfully reproduce the interannual variability of windstorm frequency especially for the British Isles and Central Europe with correlations up to 0.8.

A hybrid approach EMD-HW for short-term forecasting of daily stock market time series data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Awajan, Ahmad Mohd; Ismail, Mohd Tahir

2017-08-01

Recently, forecasting time series has attracted considerable attention in the field of analyzing financial time series data, specifically within the stock market index. Moreover, stock market forecasting is a challenging area of financial time-series forecasting. In this study, a hybrid methodology between Empirical Mode Decomposition with the Holt-Winter method (EMD-HW) is used to improve forecasting performances in financial time series. The strength of this EMD-HW lies in its ability to forecast non-stationary and non-linear time series without a need to use any transformation method. Moreover, EMD-HW has a relatively high accuracy and offers a new forecasting method in time series. The daily stock market time series data of 11 countries is applied to show the forecasting performance of the proposed EMD-HW. Based on the three forecast accuracy measures, the results indicate that EMD-HW forecasting performance is superior to traditional Holt-Winter forecasting method.

Forecast and capacity planning for Nogales' ports of entry.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-12-01

This report documents the findings and the activities performed under ADOT grant JPA 08024T. The overall purpose of this study was to forecast the number of border crossings by mode of traffic at the NogalesMariposa and DeConcini Ports of Entry...

Research and application of a novel hybrid decomposition-ensemble learning paradigm with error correction for daily PM10 forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, Hongyuan; Wang, Deyun; Yue, Chenqiang; Liu, Yanling; Guo, Haixiang

2018-03-01

In this paper, a hybrid decomposition-ensemble learning paradigm combining error correction is proposed for improving the forecast accuracy of daily PM10 concentration. The proposed learning paradigm is consisted of the following two sub-models: (1) PM10 concentration forecasting model; (2) error correction model. In the proposed model, fast ensemble empirical mode decomposition (FEEMD) and variational mode decomposition (VMD) are applied to disassemble original PM10 concentration series and error sequence, respectively. The extreme learning machine (ELM) model optimized by cuckoo search (CS) algorithm is utilized to forecast the components generated by FEEMD and VMD. In order to prove the effectiveness and accuracy of the proposed model, two real-world PM10 concentration series respectively collected from Beijing and Harbin located in China are adopted to conduct the empirical study. The results show that the proposed model performs remarkably better than all other considered models without error correction, which indicates the superior performance of the proposed model.

Retroactive interference in short-term memory and the word-length effect.

PubMed

Campoy, Guillermo

2011-09-01

Two experiments investigated the possibility that the word-length effect in short-term memory (STM) is a consequence of long words generating a greater level of retroactive interference than shorter words. In Experiment 1, six-word lists were auditorily presented under articulatory suppression for immediate serial reconstruction of only the first three words. These three words were always drawn from a single set of middle-length words, whereas the last three positions were occupied by either short or long interfering words. The results showed worse memory performance when the to-be-remembered words were followed by long words. In Experiment 2, a recent-probes task was used, in which recent negative probes matched a target word in trial n-2. The results showed lower levels of proactive interference when trial n-1 involved long words instead of short words, suggesting that long words displaced previous STM content to a greater extent. By two different experimental approaches, therefore, this study shows that long words produce more retroactive interference than short words, supporting an interference-based account for the word-length effect. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Sleep can reduce proactive interference.

PubMed

Abel, Magdalena; Bäuml, Karl-Heinz T

2014-01-01

Sleep has repeatedly been connected to processes of memory consolidation. While extensive research indeed documents beneficial effects of sleep on memory, little is yet known about the role of sleep for interference effects in episodic memory. Although two prior studies reported sleep to reduce retroactive interference, no sleep effect has previously been found for proactive interference. Here we applied a study format differing from that employed by the prior studies to induce a high degree of proactive interference, and asked participants to encode a single list or two interfering lists of paired associates via pure study cycles. Testing occurred after 12 hours of diurnal wakefulness or nocturnal sleep. Consistent with the prior work, we found sleep in comparison to wake did not affect memory for the single list, but reduced retroactive interference. In addition we found sleep reduced proactive interference, and reduced retroactive and proactive interference to the same extent. The finding is consistent with the view that arising benefits of sleep are caused by the reactivation of memory contents during sleep, which has been suggested to strengthen and stabilise memories. Such stabilisation may make memories less susceptible to competition from interfering memories at test and thus reduce interference effects.

Questioning the rule of thumb: can verbal tasks be administered during the CVLT-II delay interval?

PubMed

Williams, Bethany R; Donovick, Peter J

2008-09-01

In the manual for the California Verbal Learning Test - II (CVLT-II), the authors suggest that nonverbal, rather than verbal, tasks be administered during the delay interval between administrations of the Short- and Long-Delay Recall trials of this test. They contend that this method minimizes the retroactive interference produced by intervening tasks. The purpose of the current study was to compare the extent to which verbal and nonverbal intervening tasks produce retroactive interference on CVLT-II List A recall following the long-delay. Participants in the present study were 120 undergraduate students. All participants completed the CVLT-II, and were randomly assigned to a group in which they were administered either a verbal (WAIS-III Vocabulary or Peabody Picture Vocabulary Test - IIIB) or nonverbal (Raven's Standard Progressive Matrices or WAIS-III Block Design) intervening task during the long-delay interval of the CVLT-II. Statistical analyses revealed that regardless of the type of intervening task given, participants in all groups recalled the same number of words and produced a similar number of intrusions during the CVLT-II recall trials. This indicates that not all verbal tasks produce retroactive effects beyond those produced by nonverbal tasks.

Memory Reactivation Predicts Resistance to Retroactive Interference: Evidence from Multivariate Classification and Pattern Similarity Analyses

PubMed Central

Rugg, Michael D.

2016-01-01

Memory reactivation—the reinstatement of processes and representations engaged when an event is initially experienced—is believed to play an important role in strengthening and updating episodic memory. The present study examines how memory reactivation during a potentially interfering event influences memory for a previously experienced event. Participants underwent fMRI during the encoding phase of an AB/AC interference task in which some words were presented twice in association with two different encoding tasks (AB and AC trials) and other words were presented once (DE trials). The later memory test required retrieval of the encoding tasks associated with each of the study words. Retroactive interference was evident for the AB encoding task and was particularly strong when the AC encoding task was remembered rather than forgotten. We used multivariate classification and pattern similarity analysis (PSA) to measure reactivation of the AB encoding task during AC trials. The results demonstrated that reactivation of generic task information measured with multivariate classification predicted subsequent memory for the AB encoding task regardless of whether interference was strong and weak (trials for which the AC encoding task was remembered or forgotten, respectively). In contrast, reactivation of neural patterns idiosyncratic to a given AB trial measured with PSA only predicted memory when the strength of interference was low. These results suggest that reactivation of features of an initial experience shared across numerous events in the same category, but not features idiosyncratic to a particular event, are important in resisting retroactive interference caused by new learning. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Reactivating a previously encoded memory is believed to provide an opportunity to strengthen the memory, but also to return the memory to a labile state, making it susceptible to interference. However, there is debate as to how memory reactivation elicited by a potentially interfering event influences subsequent retrieval of the memory. The findings of the current study indicate that reactivating features idiosyncratic to a particular experience during interference only influences subsequent memory when interference is relatively weak. Critically, reactivation of generic contextual information predicts subsequent source memory when retroactive interference is either strong and weak. The results indicate that reactivation of generic information about a prior episode mitigates forgetting due to retroactive interference. PMID:27076433

Regional Air Quality forecAST (RAQAST) Over the U.S

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoshida, Y.; Choi, Y.; Zeng, T.; Wang, Y.

2005-12-01

A regional chemistry and transport modeling system is used to provide 48-hour forecast of the concentrations of ozone and its precursors over the United States. Meteorological forecast is conducted using the NCAR/Penn State MM5 model. The regional chemistry and transport model simulates the sources, transport, chemistry, and deposition of 24 chemical tracers. The lateral and upper boundary conditions of trace gas concentrations are specified using the monthly mean output from the global GEOS-CHEM model. The initial and boundary conditions for meteorological fields are taken from the NOAA AVN forecast. The forecast has been operational since August, 2003. Model simulations are evaluated using surface, aircraft, and satellite measurements in the A'hindcast' mode. The next step is an automated forecast evaluation system.

The Effect of Model Grid Resolution on the Distributed Hydrologic Simulations for Forecasting Stream Flows and Reservoir Storage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turnbull, S. J.

2017-12-01

Within the US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), reservoirs are typically operated according to a rule curve that specifies target water levels based on the time of year. The rule curve is intended to maximize flood protection by specifying releases of water before the dominant rainfall period for a region. While some operating allowances are permissible, generally the rule curve elevations must be maintained. While this operational approach provides for the required flood control purpose, it may not result in optimal reservoir operations for multi-use impoundments. In the Russian River Valley of California a multi-agency research effort called Forecast-Informed Reservoir Operations (FIRO) is assessing the application of forecast weather and streamflow predictions to potentially enhance the operation of reservoirs in the watershed. The focus of the study has been on Lake Mendocino, a USACE project important for flood control, water supply, power generation and ecological flows. As part of this effort the Engineer Research and Development Center is assessing the ability of utilizing the physics based, distributed watershed model Gridded Surface Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis (GSSHA) model to simulate stream flows, reservoir stages, and discharges while being driven by weather forecast products. A key question in this application is the effect of watershed model resolution on forecasted stream flows. To help resolve this question, GSSHA models of multiple grid resolutions, 30, 50, and 270m, were developed for the upper Russian River, which includes Lake Mendocino. The models were derived from common inputs: DEM, soils, land use, stream network, reservoir characteristics, and specified inflows and discharges. All the models were calibrated in both event and continuous simulation mode using measured precipitation gages and then driven with the West-WRF atmospheric model in prediction mode to assess the ability of the model to function in short term, less than one week, forecasting mode. In this presentation we will discuss the effect the grid resolution has model development, parameter assignment, streamflow prediction and forecasting capability utilizing the West-WRF forecast hydro-meteorology.

Decadal-Scale Forecasting of Climate Drivers for Marine Applications.

PubMed

Salinger, J; Hobday, A J; Matear, R J; O'Kane, T J; Risbey, J S; Dunstan, P; Eveson, J P; Fulton, E A; Feng, M; Plagányi, É E; Poloczanska, E S; Marshall, A G; Thompson, P A

Climate influences marine ecosystems on a range of time scales, from weather-scale (days) through to climate-scale (hundreds of years). Understanding of interannual to decadal climate variability and impacts on marine industries has received less attention. Predictability up to 10 years ahead may come from large-scale climate modes in the ocean that can persist over these time scales. In Australia the key drivers of climate variability affecting the marine environment are the Southern Annular Mode, the Indian Ocean Dipole, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, and the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, each has phases that are associated with different ocean circulation patterns and regional environmental variables. The roles of these drivers are illustrated with three case studies of extreme events-a marine heatwave in Western Australia, a coral bleaching of the Great Barrier Reef, and flooding in Queensland. Statistical and dynamical approaches are described to generate forecasts of climate drivers that can subsequently be translated to useful information for marine end users making decisions at these time scales. Considerable investment is still needed to support decadal forecasting including improvement of ocean-atmosphere models, enhancement of observing systems on all scales to support initiation of forecasting models, collection of important biological data, and integration of forecasts into decision support tools. Collaboration between forecast developers and marine resource sectors-fisheries, aquaculture, tourism, biodiversity management, infrastructure-is needed to support forecast-based tactical and strategic decisions that reduce environmental risk over annual to decadal time scales. © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Development of a methodology for the assessment of sea level rise impacts on Florida's transportation modes and infrastructure : [summary].

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-01-01

In Florida, low elevations can make transportation infrastructure in coastal and low-lying areas potentially vulnerable to sea level rise (SLR). Becuase global SLR forecasts lack precision at local or regional scales, SLR forecasts or scenarios for p...

Delensing CMB polarization with external datasets

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Smith, Kendrick M.; Hanson, Duncan; LoVerde, Marilena

2012-06-01

One of the primary scientific targets of current and future CMB polarization experiments is the search for a stochastic background of gravity waves in the early universe. As instrumental sensitivity improves, the limiting factor will eventually be B-mode power generated by gravitational lensing, which can be removed through use of so-called ''delensing'' algorithms. We forecast prospects for delensing using lensing maps which are obtained externally to CMB polarization: either from large-scale structure observations, or from high-resolution maps of CMB temperature. We conclude that the forecasts in either case are not encouraging, and that significantly delensing large-scale CMB polarization requires high-resolutionmore » polarization maps with sufficient sensitivity to measure the lensing B-mode. We also present a simple formalism for including delensing in CMB forecasts which is computationally fast and agrees well with Monte Carlos.« less

Implementing Nonlinear Feedback Controllers Using DNA Strand Displacement Reactions.

PubMed

Sawlekar, Rucha; Montefusco, Francesco; Kulkarni, Vishwesh V; Bates, Declan G

2016-07-01

We show how an important class of nonlinear feedback controllers can be designed using idealized abstract chemical reactions and implemented via DNA strand displacement (DSD) reactions. Exploiting chemical reaction networks (CRNs) as a programming language for the design of complex circuits and networks, we show how a set of unimolecular and bimolecular reactions can be used to realize input-output dynamics that produce a nonlinear quasi sliding mode (QSM) feedback controller. The kinetics of the required chemical reactions can then be implemented as enzyme-free, enthalpy/entropy driven DNA reactions using a toehold mediated strand displacement mechanism via Watson-Crick base pairing and branch migration. We demonstrate that the closed loop response of the nonlinear QSM controller outperforms a traditional linear controller by facilitating much faster tracking response dynamics without introducing overshoots in the transient response. The resulting controller is highly modular and is less affected by retroactivity effects than standard linear designs.

A New Approach to Hospital Cost Functions and Some Issues in Revenue Regulation

PubMed Central

Friedman, Bernard; Pauly, Mark V.

1983-01-01

An important aspect of hospital revenue regulation at the State level is the use of retroactive allowances for changes in the volume of service. Arguments favoring non-proportional allowances have been based on statistical studies of marginal cost, together with concerns about fairness toward non-profit enterprises or concerns about various inflationary biases in hospital management. This article attempts to review and clarify the regulatory issues and choices, with the aid of new econometric work that explicitly allows for the effects of transitory as well as expected demand changes on hospital expense. The present analysis is also novel in treating length of stay as an endogenous variable in cost functions. We analyzed cost variation for a panel of over 800 hospitals that reported monthly to Hospital Administrative Services between 1973 and 1978. The central results are that marginal cost of unexpected admissions is about half of average cost, while marginal cost of forecasted admissions is about equal to average cost. We obtained relatively low estimates of the cost of an “empty bed.” The study tends to support proportional volume allowances in revenue regulation programs, with perhaps a residual role for selective case review. PMID:10309853

Extended-range forecasting of Chinese summer surface air temperature and heat waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Zhiwei; Li, Tim

2018-03-01

Because of growing demand from agricultural planning, power management and activity scheduling, extended-range (5-30-day lead) forecasting of summer surface air temperature (SAT) and heat waves over China is carried out in the present study via spatial-temporal projection models (STPMs). Based on the training data during 1960-1999, the predictability sources are found to propagate from Europe, Northeast Asia, and the tropical Pacific, to influence the intraseasonal 10-80 day SAT over China. STPMs are therefore constructed using the projection domains, which are determined by these previous predictability sources. For the independent forecast period (2000-2013), the STPMs can reproduce EOF-filtered 30-80 day SAT at all lead times of 5-30 days over most part of China, and observed 30-80 and 10-80 day SAT at 25-30 days over eastern China. Significant pattern correlation coefficients account for more than 50% of total forecasts at all 5-30-day lead times against EOF-filtered and observed 30-80 day SAT, and at a 20-day lead time against observed 10-80 day SAT. The STPMs perform poorly in reproducing 10-30 day SAT. Forecasting for the first two modes of 10-30 day SAT only shows useful skill within a 15-day lead time. Forecasting for the third mode of 10-30 day SAT is useless after a 10-day lead time. The forecasted heat waves over China are determined by the reconstructed SAT which is the summation of the forecasted 10-80 day SAT and the lower frequency (longer than 80-day) climatological SAT. Over a large part of China, the STPMs can forecast more than 30% of heat waves within a 15-day lead time. In general, the STPMs demonstrate the promising skill for extended-range forecasting of Chinese summer SAT and heat waves.

Results on SSH neural network forecasting in the Mediterranean Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rixen, Michel; Beckers, Jean-Marie; Alvarez, Alberto; Tintore, Joaquim

2002-01-01

Nowadays, satellites are the only monitoring systems that cover almost continuously all possible ocean areas and are now an essential part of operational oceanography. A novel approach based on artificial intelligence (AI) concepts, exploits pasts time series of satellite images to infer near future ocean conditions at the surface by neural networks and genetic algorithms. The size of the AI problem is drastically reduced by splitting the spatio-temporal variability contained in the remote sensing data by using empirical orthogonal function (EOF) decomposition. The problem of forecasting the dynamics of a 2D surface field can thus be reduced by selecting the most relevant empirical modes, and non-linear time series predictors are then applied on the amplitudes only. In the present case study, we use altimetric maps of the Mediterranean Sea, combining TOPEX-POSEIDON and ERS-1/2 data for the period 1992 to 1997. The learning procedure is applied to each mode individually. The final forecast is then reconstructed form the EOFs and the forecasted amplitudes and compared to the real observed field for validation of the method.

Case Studies of Forecasting Ionospheric Total Electron Content

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mannucci, A. J.; Meng, X.; Verkhoglyadova, O. P.; Tsurutani, B.; McGranaghan, R. M.

2017-12-01

We report on medium-range forecast-mode runs of ionosphere-thermosphere coupled models that calculate ionospheric total electron content (TEC), focusing on low-latitude daytime conditions. A medium-range forecast-mode run refers to simulations that are driven by inputs that can be predicted 2-3 days in advance, for example based on simulations of the solar wind. We will present results from a weak geomagnetic storm caused by a high-speed solar wind stream on June 29, 2012. Simulations based on the Global Ionosphere Thermosphere Model (GITM) and the Thermosphere Ionosphere Electrodynamic General Circulation Model (TIEGCM) significantly over-estimate TEC in certain low latitude daytime regions, compared to TEC maps based on observations. We will present the results from a more intense coronal mass ejection (CME) driven storm where the simulations are closer to observations. We compare high latitude data sets to model inputs, such as auroral boundary and convection patterns, to assess the degree to which poorly estimated high latitude drivers may be the largest cause of discrepancy between simulations and observations. Our results reveal many factors that can affect the accuracy of forecasts, including the fidelity of empirical models used to estimate high latitude precipitation patterns, or observation proxies for solar EUV spectra, such as the F10.7 index. Implications for forecasts with few-day lead times are discussed

Multiple regression and Artificial Neural Network for long-term rainfall forecasting using large scale climate modes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mekanik, F.; Imteaz, M. A.; Gato-Trinidad, S.; Elmahdi, A.

2013-10-01

In this study, the application of Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Multiple regression analysis (MR) to forecast long-term seasonal spring rainfall in Victoria, Australia was investigated using lagged El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) as potential predictors. The use of dual (combined lagged ENSO-IOD) input sets for calibrating and validating ANN and MR Models is proposed to investigate the simultaneous effect of past values of these two major climate modes on long-term spring rainfall prediction. The MR models that did not violate the limits of statistical significance and multicollinearity were selected for future spring rainfall forecast. The ANN was developed in the form of multilayer perceptron using Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm. Both MR and ANN modelling were assessed statistically using mean square error (MSE), mean absolute error (MAE), Pearson correlation (r) and Willmott index of agreement (d). The developed MR and ANN models were tested on out-of-sample test sets; the MR models showed very poor generalisation ability for east Victoria with correlation coefficients of -0.99 to -0.90 compared to ANN with correlation coefficients of 0.42-0.93; ANN models also showed better generalisation ability for central and west Victoria with correlation coefficients of 0.68-0.85 and 0.58-0.97 respectively. The ability of multiple regression models to forecast out-of-sample sets is compatible with ANN for Daylesford in central Victoria and Kaniva in west Victoria (r = 0.92 and 0.67 respectively). The errors of the testing sets for ANN models are generally lower compared to multiple regression models. The statistical analysis suggest the potential of ANN over MR models for rainfall forecasting using large scale climate modes.

TCRP H-37 Characteristics of Premium Transit Services That Affect Mode Choice: Summary of Phase 1

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-11-15

This research seeks to improve the understanding of the full range of determinants for mode choice behavior and to offer practical solutions to practitioners on representing and distinguishing these characteristics in travel demand forecasting models...

Prediction of sea ice thickness cluster in the Northern Hemisphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fuckar, Neven-Stjepan; Guemas, Virginie; Johnson, Nathaniel; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco

2016-04-01

Sea ice thickness (SIT) has a potential to contain substantial climate memory and predictability in the northern hemisphere (NH) sea ice system. We use 5-member NH SIT, reconstructed with an ocean-sea-ice general circulation model (NEMOv3.3 with LIM2) with a simple data assimilation routine, to determine NH SIT modes of variability disentangled from the long-term climate change. Specifically, we apply the K-means cluster analysis - one of nonhierarchical clustering methods that partition data into modes or clusters based on their distances in the physical - to determine optimal number of NH SIT clusters (K=3) and their historical variability. To examine prediction skill of NH SIT clusters in EC-Earth2.3, a state-of-the-art coupled climate forecast system, we use 5-member ocean and sea ice initial conditions (IC) from the same ocean-sea-ice historical reconstruction and atmospheric IC from ERA-Interim reanalysis. We focus on May 1st and Nov 1st start dates from 1979 to 2010. Common skill metrics of probability forecast, such as rank probability skill core and ROC (relative operating characteristics - hit rate versus false alarm rate) and reliability diagrams show that our dynamical model predominately perform better than the 1st order Marko chain forecast (that beats climatological forecast) over the first forecast year. On average May 1st start dates initially have lower skill than Nov 1st start dates, but their skill is degraded at slower rate than skill of forecast started on Nov 1st.

Analysis of potential diverted of passenger car to the new toll road (case study: Cileunyi - Sumedang, West Java)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prahara, Eduardi; Suangga, Made; Lutfi Ansori, Ahmad

2017-12-01

This study aims to determine of potential of passenger car divert from national road to on-construction Cisumdawu Toll Road. The study was conducted by traffic count survey and followed by a roadside interview survey. Stated Preference method was used in order to analyse trip forecasting value. Mode choice model of new trip mode plans (Cisumdawu Toll Road) and current intercity road for Cileunyi - Sumedang is (UJT -UJR ) = 0.1079-0.507726x 1-0.8953764x 2, while Sumedang - Cileunyi is (UJT -UJR ) = 0.0790-0.301341x 1-0.548446x 2. Multiple linear regression analysis was used to obtain the forecasting of private vehicle that diverts to the new toll road (Cisumdawu Toll Road). Trip characteristics such as trip origin and destination, types of trips, occupations, salary, and others become a motive for respondents to choose a new trip mode. Results of the new trip mode forecasting that prefer to divert to the toll road in terms of the value of cost and time for Cileunyi - Sumedang are 74.11% and 86.62% respectively, while for Sumedang - Cileunyi are 69.60% and 76.48% respectively. These results are relatively high compare to toll planning document. The impact of this results can be determined such as lower overall fuel consumption, lower pollution and more important is the maintenance cost of national road will be decrease.

Implementation of Rule 8 of the International Code of Nomenclature of Prokaryotes for the renaming of classes. Request for an Opinion.

PubMed

Oren, Aharon; Parte, Aidan; Garrity, George M

2016-10-01

The new version of Rule 8 of the International Code of Nomenclature of Prokaryotes as approved in Istanbul in 2008 has the clear advantage of establishing a uniform way to name classes of prokaryotes, similar to the way other higher taxa are named. However, retroactive implementation of the modified Rule is problematic as it destabilizes the nomenclature and requires the replacement of a large number of names of classes that have been validly published, which would be in violation of Principle 1 of the Code. Therefore, we call upon the International Committee on Systematics of Prokaryotes and its Judicial Commission to reconsider the retroactivity of Rule 8.

A novel hybrid ensemble learning paradigm for tourism forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shabri, Ani

2015-02-01

In this paper, a hybrid forecasting model based on Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) and Group Method of Data Handling (GMDH) is proposed to forecast tourism demand. This methodology first decomposes the original visitor arrival series into several Intrinsic Model Function (IMFs) components and one residual component by EMD technique. Then, IMFs components and the residual components is forecasted respectively using GMDH model whose input variables are selected by using Partial Autocorrelation Function (PACF). The final forecasted result for tourism series is produced by aggregating all the forecasted results. For evaluating the performance of the proposed EMD-GMDH methodologies, the monthly data of tourist arrivals from Singapore to Malaysia are used as an illustrative example. Empirical results show that the proposed EMD-GMDH model outperforms the EMD-ARIMA as well as the GMDH and ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) models without time series decomposition.

42 CFR 413.9 - Cost related to patient care.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

...; OPTIONAL PROSPECTIVELY DETERMINED PAYMENT RATES FOR SKILLED NURSING FACILITIES Introduction and General... after the provider has submitted fiscal and statistical reports. The retroactive adjustment will...

How predictable is the anomaly pattern of the Indian summer rainfall?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Juan; Wang, Bin

2016-05-01

Century-long efforts have been devoted to seasonal forecast of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR). Most studies of seasonal forecast so far have focused on predicting the total amount of summer rainfall averaged over the entire India (i.e., all Indian rainfall index-AIRI). However, it is practically more useful to forecast anomalous seasonal rainfall distribution (anomaly pattern) across India. The unknown science question is to what extent the anomalous rainfall pattern is predictable. This study attempted to address this question. Assessment of the 46-year (1960-2005) hindcast made by the five state-of-the-art ENSEMBLE coupled dynamic models' multi-model ensemble (MME) prediction reveals that the temporal correlation coefficient (TCC) skill for prediction of AIRI is 0.43, while the area averaged TCC skill for prediction of anomalous rainfall pattern is only 0.16. The present study aims to estimate the predictability of ISMR on regional scales by using Predictable Mode Analysis method and to develop a set of physics-based empirical (P-E) models for prediction of ISMR anomaly pattern. We show that the first three observed empirical orthogonal function (EOF) patterns of the ISMR have their distinct dynamical origins rooted in an eastern Pacific-type La Nina, a central Pacific-type La Nina, and a cooling center near dateline, respectively. These equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies, while located in different longitudes, can all set up a specific teleconnection pattern that affects Indian monsoon and results in different rainfall EOF patterns. Furthermore, the dynamical models' skill for predicting ISMR distribution primarily comes primarily from these three modes. Therefore, these modes can be regarded as potentially predictable modes. If these modes are perfectly predicted, about 51 % of the total observed variability is potentially predictable. Based on understanding the lead-lag relationships between the lower boundary anomalies and the predictable modes, a set of P-E models is established to predict the principal component of each predictable mode, so that the ISMR anomaly pattern can be predicted by using the sum of the predictable modes. Three validation schemes are used to assess the performance of the P-E models' hindcast and independent forecast. The validated TCC skills of the P-E model here are more than doubled that of dynamical models' MME hindcast, suggesting a large room for improvement of the current dynamical prediction. The methodology proposed here can be applied to a wide range of climate prediction and predictability studies. The limitation and future improvement are also discussed.

An Evaluation of Deficits in Semantic Cuing, Proactive and Retroactive Interference as Early Features of Alzheimer’s disease

PubMed Central

Crocco, Elizabeth; Curiel, Rosie E.; Acevedo, Amarilis; Czaja, Sara J.; Loewenstein, David A.

2015-01-01

OBJECTIVE To determine the degree to which susceptibility to different types of semantic interference may reflect the earliest manifestations of early Alzheimer disease (AD) beyond the effects of global memory impairment. METHODS Normal elderly (NE) subjects (n= 47), subjects with amnestic mild cognitive impairment (aMCI: n=34) and 40 subjects with probable AD were evaluated using a unique cued recall paradigm that allowed for an evaluation of both proactive and retroactive interference effects while controlling for global memory impairment (LASSI-L procedure). RESULTS Controlling for overall memory impairment, aMCI subjects had much greater proactive and retroactive interference effects than NE subjects. LASSI-L indices of learning using cued recall evidenced high levels of sensitivity and specificity with an overall correct classification rate of 90%. These provided better discrimination than traditional neuropsychological measures of memory function. CONCLUSION The LASSI-L paradigm is unique and unlike other assessments of memory in that items presented for cued recall are explicitly presented, and semantic interference and cuing effects can be assessed while controlling for initial level of memory impairment. This represents a powerful procedure allowing the participant to serve as his or her own control. The high levels of discrimination between subjects with aMCI and normal cognition that exceeded traditional neuropsychological measures makes the LASSI-L worthy of further research in the detection of early AD. PMID:23768680

Empirical retrocausality: Testing physics hypotheses with parapsychological experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dobyns, York

2017-05-01

In 2011, Daryl Bem published a report of nine parapsychological experiments showing evidence of retrocausal information transfer. Earlier in 2016, the team of Bem, Tressoldi, Rabeyron, and Duggan published the results of a meta-analysis containing 81 independent replications of the original Bem experiments (total of 90 with the originals).[1] This much larger database continues to show positive results of generally comparable effect size, thus demonstrating that the effects claimed by Bem can be replicated by independent researchers and greatly strengthening the case for empirically observed retrocausation. Earlier (2011) work by this author showed how a modification of one of Bem's original experiments could be used to test the mechanism implicitly proposed by Echeverria, Klinkhammer, and Thorne to explain how retrocausal phenomena can exist without any risk of self-contradictory event sequences (time paradoxes). In light of the new publication and new evidence, the current work generalizes the previous analysis which was restricted to only one of Bem's experimental genres (precognitive approach and avoidance). The current analysis shows how minor modifications can be made in Bem's other experimental genres of retroactive priming, retroactive habituation, and retroactive facilitation of recall to test the EKT anti-paradox mechanism. If the EKT hypothesis is correct, the modified experiments, while continuing to show replicable retrocausal phenomena, will also show a characteristic pattern of distortion in the statistics of the random selections used to drive the experiments.

Memory consolidation and expression of object recognition are susceptible to retroactive interference.

PubMed

Villar, María Eugenia; Martinez, María Cecilia; Lopes da Cunha, Pamela; Ballarini, Fabricio; Viola, Haydee

2017-02-01

With the aim of analyzing if object recognition long-term memory (OR-LTM) formation is susceptible to retroactive interference (RI), we submitted rats to sequential sample sessions using the same arena but changing the identity of a pair of objects placed in it. Separate groups of animals were tested in the arena in order to evaluate the LTM for these objects. Our results suggest that OR-LTM formation was retroactively interfered within a critical time window by the exploration of a new, but not familiar, object. This RI acted on the consolidation of the object explored in the first sample session because its OR-STM measured 3h after training was not affected, whereas the OR-LTM measured at 24h was impaired. This sample session also impaired the expression of OR memory when it took place before the test. Moreover, local inactivation of the dorsal Hippocampus (Hp) or the medial Prefrontal Cortex (mPFC) previous to the exploration of the second pair of objects impaired their consolidation restoring the LTM for the objects explored in the first session. This data suggests that both brain regions are involved in the processing of OR-memory and also that if those regions are engaged in another process before finishing the first consolidation process its LTM will be impaired by RI. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Randomly correcting model errors in the ARPEGE-Climate v6.1 component of CNRM-CM: applications for seasonal forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Batté, Lauriane; Déqué, Michel

2016-06-01

Stochastic methods are increasingly used in global coupled model climate forecasting systems to account for model uncertainties. In this paper, we describe in more detail the stochastic dynamics technique introduced by Batté and Déqué (2012) in the ARPEGE-Climate atmospheric model. We present new results with an updated version of CNRM-CM using ARPEGE-Climate v6.1, and show that the technique can be used both as a means of analyzing model error statistics and accounting for model inadequacies in a seasonal forecasting framework.The perturbations are designed as corrections of model drift errors estimated from a preliminary weakly nudged re-forecast run over an extended reference period of 34 boreal winter seasons. A detailed statistical analysis of these corrections is provided, and shows that they are mainly made of intra-month variance, thereby justifying their use as in-run perturbations of the model in seasonal forecasts. However, the interannual and systematic error correction terms cannot be neglected. Time correlation of the errors is limited, but some consistency is found between the errors of up to 3 consecutive days.These findings encourage us to test several settings of the random draws of perturbations in seasonal forecast mode. Perturbations are drawn randomly but consistently for all three prognostic variables perturbed. We explore the impact of using monthly mean perturbations throughout a given forecast month in a first ensemble re-forecast (SMM, for stochastic monthly means), and test the use of 5-day sequences of perturbations in a second ensemble re-forecast (S5D, for stochastic 5-day sequences). Both experiments are compared in the light of a REF reference ensemble with initial perturbations only. Results in terms of forecast quality are contrasted depending on the region and variable of interest, but very few areas exhibit a clear degradation of forecasting skill with the introduction of stochastic dynamics. We highlight some positive impacts of the method, mainly on Northern Hemisphere extra-tropics. The 500 hPa geopotential height bias is reduced, and improvements project onto the representation of North Atlantic weather regimes. A modest impact on ensemble spread is found over most regions, which suggests that this method could be complemented by other stochastic perturbation techniques in seasonal forecasting mode.

32 CFR 279.4 - Claims process.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... Retroactive Stop Loss Special Pay. This notification should reflect the estimated number of eligible months... from the individual's chain of command. (4) Establish claim and appellate procedures, websites, points...

32 CFR 279.4 - Claims process.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... Retroactive Stop Loss Special Pay. This notification should reflect the estimated number of eligible months... from the individual's chain of command. (4) Establish claim and appellate procedures, websites, points...

32 CFR 279.4 - Claims process.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... Retroactive Stop Loss Special Pay. This notification should reflect the estimated number of eligible months... from the individual's chain of command. (4) Establish claim and appellate procedures, websites, points...

32 CFR 279.4 - Claims process.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... Retroactive Stop Loss Special Pay. This notification should reflect the estimated number of eligible months... from the individual's chain of command. (4) Establish claim and appellate procedures, websites, points...

Disjunction and conjunction fallacies in episodic memory.

PubMed

Nakamura, K; Brainerd, C J

2017-09-01

It has recently been found that episodic memory displays analogues of the well-known disjunction and conjunction fallacies of probability judgement. The aim of the present research was, for the first time, to study these memory fallacies together under the same conditions, and test theoretical predictions about the reasons for each. The focus was on predictions about the influence of semantic gist, target versus context recollection, and proactive versus retroactive interference. Disjunction and conjunction fallacies increased in conditions in which subjects were able to form semantic connections among list words. In addition, disjunction fallacies were increased by manipulations that minimised proactive interference, whereas conjunction fallacies were increased by manipulations that minimised retroactive interference. That pattern suggests that disjunction fallacies are more dependent on target recollection, whereas conjunction fallacies are more dependent on context recollection.

Electron Localization in Dissociating H 2 + by Retroaction of a Photoelectron onto Its Source

DOE PAGES

Waitz, M.; Asliturk, D.; Wechselberger, N.; ...

2016-01-26

We investigate the dissociation of H 2 + into a proton and a H 0 after single ionization with photons of an energy close to the threshold. We find that the p + and the H 0 do not emerge symmetrically in the case of the H 2 + dissociating along the 1sσ g ground state. Instead, a preference for the ejection of the p + in the direction of the escaping photoelectron can be observed. This symmetry breaking is strongest for very small electron energies. Our experiment is consistent with a recent prediction by Serov and Kheifets. In theirmore » model, which treats the photoelectron classically, the symmetry breaking is induced by the retroaction of the long-range Coulomb potential onto the dissociating H 2 +.« less

Linear dynamical modes as new variables for data-driven ENSO forecast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gavrilov, Andrey; Seleznev, Aleksei; Mukhin, Dmitry; Loskutov, Evgeny; Feigin, Alexander; Kurths, Juergen

2018-05-01

A new data-driven model for analysis and prediction of spatially distributed time series is proposed. The model is based on a linear dynamical mode (LDM) decomposition of the observed data which is derived from a recently developed nonlinear dimensionality reduction approach. The key point of this approach is its ability to take into account simple dynamical properties of the observed system by means of revealing the system's dominant time scales. The LDMs are used as new variables for empirical construction of a nonlinear stochastic evolution operator. The method is applied to the sea surface temperature anomaly field in the tropical belt where the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the main mode of variability. The advantage of LDMs versus traditionally used empirical orthogonal function decomposition is demonstrated for this data. Specifically, it is shown that the new model has a competitive ENSO forecast skill in comparison with the other existing ENSO models.

A Study of Subseasonal Predictability of the Atmospheric Circulation Low-frequency Modes based on SL-AV forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kruglova, Ekaterina; Kulikova, Irina; Khan, Valentina; Tischenko, Vladimir

2017-04-01

The subseasonal predictability of low-frequency modes and the atmospheric circulation regimes is investigated based on the using of outputs from global Semi-Lagrangian (SL-AV) model of the Hydrometcentre of Russia and Institute of Numerical Mathematics of Russian Academy of Science. Teleconnection indices (AO, WA, EA, NAO, EU, WP, PNA) are used as the quantitative characteristics of low-frequency variability to identify zonal and meridional flow regimes with focus on control distribution of high impact weather patterns in the Northern Eurasia. The predictability of weekly and monthly averaged indices is estimated by the methods of diagnostic verification of forecast and reanalysis data covering the hindcast period, and also with the use of the recommended WMO quantitative criteria. Characteristics of the low frequency variability have been discussed. Particularly, it is revealed that the meridional flow regimes are reproduced by SL-AV for summer season better comparing to winter period. It is shown that the model's deterministic forecast (ensemble mean) skill at week 1 (days 1-7) is noticeably better than that of climatic forecasts. The decrease of skill scores at week 2 (days 8-14) and week 3( days 15-21) is explained by deficiencies in the modeling system and inaccurate initial conditions. It was noticed the slightly improvement of the skill of model at week 4 (days 22-28), when the condition of atmosphere is more determined by the flow of energy from the outside. The reliability of forecasts of monthly (days 1-30) averaged indices is comparable to that at week 1 (days 1-7). Numerical experiments demonstrated that the forecast accuracy can be improved (thus the limit of practical predictability can be extended) through the using of probabilistic approach based on ensemble forecasts. It is shown that the quality of forecasts of the regimes of circulation like blocking is higher, than that of zonal flow.

Seismic imaging of the Sun's far hemisphere and its applications in space weather forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lindsey, Charles; Braun, Douglas

2017-06-01

The interior of the Sun is filled acoustic waves with periods of about 5 min. These waves, called "p modes," are understood to be excited by convection in a thin layer beneath the Sun's surface. The p modes cause seismic ripples, which we call "the solar oscillations." Helioseismic observatories use Doppler observations to map these oscillations, both spatially and temporally. The p modes propagate freely throughout the solar interior, reverberating between the near and far hemispheres. They also interact strongly with active regions at the surfaces of both hemispheres, carrying the signatures of said interactions with them. Computational analysis of the solar oscillations mapped in the Sun's near hemisphere, applying basic principles of wave optics to model the implied p modes propagating through the solar interior, gives us seismic maps of large active regions in the Sun's far hemisphere. These seismic maps are useful for space weather forecasting. For the past decade, NASA's twin STEREO spacecraft have given us full coverage of the Sun's far hemisphere in electromagnetic (EUV) radiation from the far side of Earth's orbit about the Sun. We are now approaching a decade during which the STEREO spacecraft will lose their farside vantage. There will occur significant periods from thence during which electromagnetic coverage of the Sun's far hemisphere will be incomplete or nil. Solar seismology will make it possible to continue our monitor of large active regions in the Sun's far hemisphere for the needs of space weather forecasters during these otherwise blind periods.

Seismic imaging of the Sun's far hemisphere and its applications in space weather forecasting.

PubMed

Lindsey, Charles; Braun, Douglas

2017-06-01

The interior of the Sun is filled acoustic waves with periods of about 5 min. These waves, called " p modes," are understood to be excited by convection in a thin layer beneath the Sun's surface. The p modes cause seismic ripples, which we call "the solar oscillations." Helioseismic observatories use Doppler observations to map these oscillations, both spatially and temporally. The p modes propagate freely throughout the solar interior, reverberating between the near and far hemispheres. They also interact strongly with active regions at the surfaces of both hemispheres, carrying the signatures of said interactions with them. Computational analysis of the solar oscillations mapped in the Sun's near hemisphere, applying basic principles of wave optics to model the implied p modes propagating through the solar interior, gives us seismic maps of large active regions in the Sun's far hemisphere. These seismic maps are useful for space weather forecasting. For the past decade, NASA's twin STEREO spacecraft have given us full coverage of the Sun's far hemisphere in electromagnetic (EUV) radiation from the far side of Earth's orbit about the Sun. We are now approaching a decade during which the STEREO spacecraft will lose their farside vantage. There will occur significant periods from thence during which electromagnetic coverage of the Sun's far hemisphere will be incomplete or nil. Solar seismology will make it possible to continue our monitor of large active regions in the Sun's far hemisphere for the needs of space weather forecasters during these otherwise blind periods.

Empirical Mode Decomposition and k-Nearest Embedding Vectors for Timely Analyses of Antibiotic Resistance Trends

PubMed Central

Teodoro, Douglas; Lovis, Christian

2013-01-01

Background Antibiotic resistance is a major worldwide public health concern. In clinical settings, timely antibiotic resistance information is key for care providers as it allows appropriate targeted treatment or improved empirical treatment when the specific results of the patient are not yet available. Objective To improve antibiotic resistance trend analysis algorithms by building a novel, fully data-driven forecasting method from the combination of trend extraction and machine learning models for enhanced biosurveillance systems. Methods We investigate a robust model for extraction and forecasting of antibiotic resistance trends using a decade of microbiology data. Our method consists of breaking down the resistance time series into independent oscillatory components via the empirical mode decomposition technique. The resulting waveforms describing intrinsic resistance trends serve as the input for the forecasting algorithm. The algorithm applies the delay coordinate embedding theorem together with the k-nearest neighbor framework to project mappings from past events into the future dimension and estimate the resistance levels. Results The algorithms that decompose the resistance time series and filter out high frequency components showed statistically significant performance improvements in comparison with a benchmark random walk model. We present further qualitative use-cases of antibiotic resistance trend extraction, where empirical mode decomposition was applied to highlight the specificities of the resistance trends. Conclusion The decomposition of the raw signal was found not only to yield valuable insight into the resistance evolution, but also to produce novel models of resistance forecasters with boosted prediction performance, which could be utilized as a complementary method in the analysis of antibiotic resistance trends. PMID:23637796

Improving Streamflow Forecasts Using Predefined Sea Surface Temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kalra, A.; Ahmad, S.

2011-12-01

With the increasing evidence of climate variability, water resources managers in the western United States are faced with greater challenges of developing long range streamflow forecast. This is further aggravated by the increases in climate extremes such as floods and drought caused by climate variability. Over the years, climatologists have identified several modes of climatic variability and their relationship with streamflow. These climate modes have the potential of being used as predictor in models for improving the streamflow lead time. With this as the motivation, the current research focuses on increasing the streamflow lead time using predefine climate indices. A data driven model i.e. Support Vector Machine (SVM) based on the statistical learning theory is used to predict annual streamflow volume 3-year in advance. The SVM model is a learning system that uses a hypothesis space of linear functions in a Kernel induced higher dimensional feature space, and is trained with a learning algorithm from the optimization theory. Annual oceanic-atmospheric indices, comprising of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), El Niño-Southern Oscillations (ENSO), and a new Sea Surface Temperature (SST) data set of "Hondo" Region for a period of 1906-2005 are used to generate annual streamflow volumes. The SVM model is applied to three gages i.e. Cisco, Green River, and Lees Ferry in the Upper Colorado River Basin in the western United States. Based on the performance measures the model shows very good forecasts, and the forecast are in good agreement with measured streamflow volumes. Previous research has identified NAO and ENSO as main drivers for extending streamflow forecast lead-time in the UCRB. Inclusion of "Hondo Region" SST information further improve the model's forecasting ability. The overall results of this study revealed that the annual streamflow of the UCRB is significantly influenced by predefine climate modes and the proposed SVM modeling technique incorporating oceanic-atmospheric oscillations is expected to be useful to water managers in the long-term management of the water resources within the UCRB.

Satellite provided customer premises services: A forecast of potential domestic demand through the year 2000. Volume 1: Executive summary

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kratochvil, D.; Bowyer, J.; Bhushan, C.; Steinnagel, K.; Kaushal, D.; Al-Kinani, G.

1983-01-01

Development of a forecast of the total domestic telecommunications demand, identification of that portion of the telecommunications demand suitable for transmission by satellite systems, identification of that portion of the satellite market addressable by CPS systems, identification of that portion of the satellite market addressable by Ka-band CPS system, and postulation of a Ka-band CPS network on a nationwide and local level were achieved. The approach employed included the use of a variety of forecasting models, a parametric cost model, a market distribution model and a network optimization model. Forecasts were developed for: 1980, 1990, 2000; voice, data and video services; terrestrial and satellite delivery modes; and C, Ku and Ka-bands.

A study of application of remote sensing to river forecasting. Volume 1: Executive summary

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1975-01-01

A project is described whose goal was to define, implement and evaluate a pilot demonstration test to show the practicability of applying remotely sensed data to operational river forecasting in gaged or previously ungaged watersheds. A secondary objective was to provide NASA with documentation describing the computer programs that comprise the streamflow forecasting simulation model used. A computer-based simulation model was adapted to a streamflow forecasting application and implemented in an IBM System/360 Model 44 computer, operating in a dedicated mode, with operator interactive control through a Model 2250 keyboard/graphic CRT terminal. The test site whose hydrologic behavior was simulated is a small basin (365 square kilometers) designated Town Creek near Geraldine, Alabama.

Satellite provided customer premises services: A forecast of potential domestic demand through the year 2000. Volume: Executive summary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kratochvil, D.; Bowyer, J.; Bhushan, C.; Steinnagel, K.; Kaushal, D.; Al-Kinani, G.

1983-08-01

Development of a forecast of the total domestic telecommunications demand, identification of that portion of the telecommunications demand suitable for transmission by satellite systems, identification of that portion of the satellite market addressable by CPS systems, identification of that portion of the satellite market addressable by Ka-band CPS system, and postulation of a Ka-band CPS network on a nationwide and local level were achieved. The approach employed included the use of a variety of forecasting models, a parametric cost model, a market distribution model and a network optimization model. Forecasts were developed for: 1980, 1990, 2000; voice, data and video services; terrestrial and satellite delivery modes; and C, Ku and Ka-bands.

Coupled Modes over Indian Ocean at Sub-seasonal time Scales and its Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jung, E.; Kirtman, B. P.

2014-12-01

Sub-seasonal variability over the Indian Ocean, such as Madden-Julian Oscillation impacts weather and climate globally. However, the prediction of tropical sub-seasonal variability (TSV) remains a challenge, and understanding air-sea interactions on TSV time-scales is likely to be an important part of the prediction problem. The purpose of this paper is to examine the predictability of sub-seasonal variability in the tropical Indo-Pacific region. The analysis emphasizes on variability associated with coupled air-sea interactions in observational estimates, and how well these coupled modes are simulated and predicted within the context of a 30-year retrospective forecast experiment with a state-of-the-art atmosphere-ocean coupled model. The analysis shows that Sea Surface Temperature anomalies (SSTA) over the Indian Ocean tend to precede precipitation anomalies by 7-11 days with maximum amplitude over the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal for summer and along the Seychelles-Chagos Thermocline Ridge (SCTR) region for winter. Though these coupled modes are captured by the models, the forecasts fail to predict its evolution. Based on the diagnosis of these coupled modes, we introduce a SCTR-SST index and an index that measures the modulation of the low-frequency amplitude (LFAM) of sub-seasonal SSTA variability over SCTR as a way to predict the coupled modes. Based on correlation with the observed variability, SCTR-SST has forecast skill of about 45 days over the Indian Ocean. However the sub-seasonal SSTAs in the predictions and the observational estimates do not have any direct ENSO tele-connection. In contrast, the LFAM of the sub-seasonal SSTA variance over SCTR is strongly correlated with ENSO, suggesting enhanced sub-seasonal variance on seasonal time-scales is potentially predictable.

Improvements and Lingering Challenges with Modeling Low-Level Winds Over Complex Terrain during the Wind Forecast Improvement Project 2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olson, J.; Kenyon, J.; Brown, J. M.; Angevine, W. M.; Marquis, M.; Pichugina, Y. L.; Choukulkar, A.; Bonin, T.; Banta, R. M.; Bianco, L.; Djalalova, I.; McCaffrey, K.; Wilczak, J. M.; Lantz, K. O.; Long, C. N.; Redfern, S.; McCaa, J. R.; Stoelinga, M.; Grimit, E.; Cline, J.; Shaw, W. J.; Lundquist, J. K.; Lundquist, K. A.; Kosovic, B.; Berg, L. K.; Kotamarthi, V. R.; Sharp, J.; Jiménez, P.

2017-12-01

The Rapid Refresh (RAP) and High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) are NOAA real-time operational hourly updating forecast systems run at 13- and 3-km grid spacing, respectively. Both systems use the Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) as the model component of the forecast system. During the second installment of the Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP 2), the RAP/HRRR have been targeted for the improvement of low-level wind forecasts in the complex terrain within the Columbia River Basin (CRB), which requires much finer grid spacing to resolve important terrain peaks in the Cascade Mountains as well as the Columbia River Gorge. Therefore, this project provides a unique opportunity to test and develop the RAP/HRRR physics suite within a very high-resolution nest (Δx = 750 m) over the northwestern US. Special effort is made to incorporate scale-aware aspects into the model physical parameterizations to improve RAP/HRRR wind forecasts for any application at any grid spacing. Many wind profiling and scanning instruments have been deployed in the CRB in support the WFIP 2 field project, which spanned 01 October 2015 to 31 March 2017. During the project, several forecast error modes were identified, such as: (1) too-shallow cold pools during the cool season, which can mix-out more frequently than observed and (2) the low wind speed bias in thermal trough-induced gap flows during the warm season. Development has been focused on the column-based turbulent mixing scheme to improve upon these biases, but investigating the effects of horizontal (and 3D) mixing has also helped improve some of the common forecast failure modes. This presentation will highlight the testing and development of various model components, showing the improvements over original versions for temperature and wind profiles. Examples of case studies and retrospective periods will be presented to illustrate the improvements. We will demonstrate that the improvements made in WFIP 2 will be extendable to other regions, complex or flat terrain. Ongoing and future challenges in RAP/HRRR physics development will be touched upon.

Kline DeWire Public Safety Officers' Retroactive Benefits Act

THOMAS, 113th Congress

Rep. Marino, Tom [R-PA-10

2014-04-29

House - 07/21/2014 Referred to the Subcommittee on Crime, Terrorism, Homeland Security, and Investigations. (All Actions) Tracker: This bill has the status IntroducedHere are the steps for Status of Legislation:

Federal Employee Retroactive Pay Fairness Act

THOMAS, 113th Congress

Sen. Cardin, Benjamin L. [D-MD

2013-10-01

Senate - 10/01/2013 Read twice and referred to the Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs. (All Actions) Tracker: This bill has the status IntroducedHere are the steps for Status of Legislation:

Federal Employee Retroactive Pay Fairness Act

THOMAS, 112th Congress

Rep. Moran, James P. [D-VA-8

2011-04-07

House - 04/08/2011 Referred to the Subcommittee on Federal Workforce, U.S. Postal Service, and Labor Policy . (All Actions) Tracker: This bill has the status IntroducedHere are the steps for Status of Legislation:

Application of a medium-range global hydrologic probabilistic forecast scheme to the Ohio River Basin

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Voisin, Nathalie; Pappenberger, Florian; Lettenmaier, D. P.

2011-08-15

A 10-day globally applicable flood prediction scheme was evaluated using the Ohio River basin as a test site for the period 2003-2007. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model was initialized with the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analysis temperatures and wind, and Tropical Rainfall Monitoring Mission Multi Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) precipitation up to the day of forecast. In forecast mode, the VIC model was then forced with a calibrated and statistically downscaled ECMWF ensemble prediction system (EPS) 10-day ensemble forecast. A parallel set up was used where ECMWF EPS forecasts were interpolated to the spatialmore » scale of the hydrology model. Each set of forecasts was extended by 5 days using monthly mean climatological variables and zero precipitation in order to account for the effect of initial conditions. The 15-day spatially distributed ensemble runoff forecasts were then routed to four locations in the basin, each with different drainage areas. Surrogates for observed daily runoff and flow were provided by the reference run, specifically VIC simulation forced with ECMWF analysis fields and TMPA precipitation fields. The flood prediction scheme using the calibrated and downscaled ECMWF EPS forecasts was shown to be more accurate and reliable than interpolated forecasts for both daily distributed runoff forecasts and daily flow forecasts. Initial and antecedent conditions dominated the flow forecasts for lead times shorter than the time of concentration depending on the flow forecast amounts and the drainage area sizes. The flood prediction scheme had useful skill for the 10 following days at all sites.« less

Short-term ensemble streamflow forecasting using operationally-produced single-valued streamflow forecasts - A Hydrologic Model Output Statistics (HMOS) approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Regonda, Satish Kumar; Seo, Dong-Jun; Lawrence, Bill; Brown, James D.; Demargne, Julie

2013-08-01

We present a statistical procedure for generating short-term ensemble streamflow forecasts from single-valued, or deterministic, streamflow forecasts produced operationally by the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) River Forecast Centers (RFCs). The resulting ensemble streamflow forecast provides an estimate of the predictive uncertainty associated with the single-valued forecast to support risk-based decision making by the forecasters and by the users of the forecast products, such as emergency managers. Forced by single-valued quantitative precipitation and temperature forecasts (QPF, QTF), the single-valued streamflow forecasts are produced at a 6-h time step nominally out to 5 days into the future. The single-valued streamflow forecasts reflect various run-time modifications, or "manual data assimilation", applied by the human forecasters in an attempt to reduce error from various sources in the end-to-end forecast process. The proposed procedure generates ensemble traces of streamflow from a parsimonious approximation of the conditional multivariate probability distribution of future streamflow given the single-valued streamflow forecast, QPF, and the most recent streamflow observation. For parameter estimation and evaluation, we used a multiyear archive of the single-valued river stage forecast produced operationally by the NWS Arkansas-Red River Basin River Forecast Center (ABRFC) in Tulsa, Oklahoma. As a by-product of parameter estimation, the procedure provides a categorical assessment of the effective lead time of the operational hydrologic forecasts for different QPF and forecast flow conditions. To evaluate the procedure, we carried out hindcasting experiments in dependent and cross-validation modes. The results indicate that the short-term streamflow ensemble hindcasts generated from the procedure are generally reliable within the effective lead time of the single-valued forecasts and well capture the skill of the single-valued forecasts. For smaller basins, however, the effective lead time is significantly reduced by short basin memory and reduced skill in the single-valued QPF.

Nonlinear Dynamical Modes as a Basis for Short-Term Forecast of Climate Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feigin, A. M.; Mukhin, D.; Gavrilov, A.; Seleznev, A.; Loskutov, E.

2017-12-01

We study abilities of data-driven stochastic models constructed by nonlinear dynamical decomposition of spatially distributed data to quantitative (short-term) forecast of climate characteristics. We compare two data processing techniques: (i) widely used empirical orthogonal function approach, and (ii) nonlinear dynamical modes (NDMs) framework [1,2]. We also make comparison of two kinds of the prognostic models: (i) traditional autoregression (linear) model and (ii) model in the form of random ("stochastic") nonlinear dynamical system [3]. We apply all combinations of the above-mentioned data mining techniques and kinds of models to short-term forecasts of climate indices based on sea surface temperature (SST) data. We use NOAA_ERSST_V4 dataset (monthly SST with space resolution 20 × 20) covering the tropical belt and starting from the year 1960. We demonstrate that NDM-based nonlinear model shows better prediction skill versus EOF-based linear and nonlinear models. Finally we discuss capability of NDM-based nonlinear model for long-term (decadal) prediction of climate variability. [1] D. Mukhin, A. Gavrilov, E. Loskutov , A.Feigin, J.Kurths, 2015: Principal nonlinear dynamical modes of climate variability, Scientific Reports, rep. 5, 15510; doi: 10.1038/srep15510. [2] Gavrilov, A., Mukhin, D., Loskutov, E., Volodin, E., Feigin, A., & Kurths, J., 2016: Method for reconstructing nonlinear modes with adaptive structure from multidimensional data. Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, 26(12), 123101. [3] Ya. Molkov, D. Mukhin, E. Loskutov, A. Feigin, 2012: Random dynamical models from time series. Phys. Rev. E, Vol. 85, n.3.

Section on Observed Impacts on El Nino

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rosenzweig, Cynthia

2000-01-01

Agricultural applications of El Nino forecasts are already underway in some countries and need to be evaluated or re-evaluated. For example, in Peru, El Nino forecasts have been incorporated into national planning for the agricultural sector, and areas planted with rice and cotton (cotton being the more drought-tolerant crop) are adjusted accordingly. How well are this and other such programs working? Such evaluations will contribute to the governmental and intergovernmental institutions, including the Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research and the US National Ocean and Atmospheric Agency that are fostering programs to aid the effective use of forecasts. As El Nino climate forecasting grows out of the research mode into operational mode, the research focus shifts to include the design of appropriate modes of utilization. Awareness of and sensitivity to the costs of prediction errors also grow. For example, one major forecasting model failed to predict the very large El Nino event of 1997, when Pacific sea-surface temperatures were the highest on record. Although simple correlations between El Nino events and crop yields may be suggestive, more sophisticated work is needed to understand the subtleties of the interplay among the global climate system, regional climate patterns, and local agricultural systems. Honesty about the limitations of an forecast is essential, especially when human livelihoods are at stake. An end-to-end analysis links tools and expertise from the full sequence of ENSO cause-and-effect processes. Representatives from many disciplines are needed to achieve insights, e.g, oceanographers and atmospheric scientists who predict El Nino events, climatologists who drive global climate models with sea-surface temperature predictions, agronomists who translate regional climate connections in to crop yield forecasts, and economists who analyze market adjustments to the vagaries of climate and determine the value of climate forecasts. Methods include historical studies to understand past patterns and to test hindcasts of the prediction tools, crop modeling, spatial analysis and remote sensing. This research involves expanding, deepening, and applying the understanding of physical climate to the fields of agronomy and social science; and the reciprocal understanding of crop growth and farm economics to climatology. Delivery of a regional climate forecast with no information about how the climate forecast was derived limits its effectiveness. Explanation of a region's major climate driving forces helps to place a seasonal forecast in context. Then, a useful approach is to show historical responses to previous El Nino events, and projections, with uncertainty intervals, of crop response from dynamic process crop growth models. Regional ID forecasts should be updated with real-time weather conditions. Since every El Nino event is different, it is important to track, report and advise on each new event as it unfolds. The stability of human enterprises depends on understanding both the potentialities and the limits of predictability. Farmers rely on past experience to anticipate and respond to fluctuations in the biophysical systems on which their livelihoods depend. Now scientists are improving their ability to predict some major elements of climate variability. The improvements in the reliability of El Nino forecasts are encouraging, but seasonal forecasts for agriculture are not, and will probably never be completely infallible, due to the chaotic nature of the climate system. Uncertainties proliferate as we extend beyond Pacific sea-surface temperatures to climate teleconnections and agricultural outcomes. The goal of this research is to shed as a clear light as possible on these inherent uncertainties and thus to contribute to the development of appropriate responses to El Nino and other seasonal forecasts for a range of stakeholders, which, ultimately, includes food consumers everywhere.

Federal Employee Retroactive Pay Fairness Act

THOMAS, 113th Congress

Rep. Moran, James P. [D-VA-8

2013-09-30

Senate - 10/07/2013 Read the second time. Placed on Senate Legislative Calendar under General Orders. Calendar No. 208. (All Actions) Tracker: This bill has the status Passed HouseHere are the steps for Status of Legislation:

20 CFR 416.1210 - Exclusions from resources; general.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... is required by such statute; (k) Disaster relief assistance as provided in § 416.1237; (l) Burial... title II retroactive payments as provided in § 416.1233; (n) Housing assistance as provided in § 416...

20 CFR 416.1210 - Exclusions from resources; general.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... is required by such statute; (k) Disaster relief assistance as provided in § 416.1237; (l) Burial... title II retroactive payments as provided in § 416.1233; (n) Housing assistance as provided in § 416...

20 CFR 416.1210 - Exclusions from resources; general.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... is required by such statute; (k) Disaster relief assistance as provided in § 416.1237; (l) Burial... title II retroactive payments as provided in § 416.1233; (n) Housing assistance as provided in § 416...

20 CFR 416.1210 - Exclusions from resources; general.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... is required by such statute; (k) Disaster relief assistance as provided in § 416.1237; (l) Burial... title II retroactive payments as provided in § 416.1233; (n) Housing assistance as provided in § 416...

Transforming community access to space science models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

MacNeice, Peter; Hesse, Michael; Kuznetsova, Maria; Maddox, Marlo; Rastaetter, Lutz; Berrios, David; Pulkkinen, Antti

2012-04-01

Researching and forecasting the ever changing space environment (often referred to as space weather) and its influence on humans and their activities are model-intensive disciplines. This is true because the physical processes involved are complex, but, in contrast to terrestrial weather, the supporting observations are typically sparse. Models play a vital role in establishing a physically meaningful context for interpreting limited observations, testing theory, and producing both nowcasts and forecasts. For example, with accurate forecasting of hazardous space weather conditions, spacecraft operators can place sensitive systems in safe modes, and power utilities can protect critical network components from damage caused by large currents induced in transmission lines by geomagnetic storms.

Transforming Community Access to Space Science Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

MacNeice, Peter; Heese, Michael; Kunetsova, Maria; Maddox, Marlo; Rastaetter, Lutz; Berrios, David; Pulkkinen, Antti

2012-01-01

Researching and forecasting the ever changing space environment (often referred to as space weather) and its influence on humans and their activities are model-intensive disciplines. This is true because the physical processes involved are complex, but, in contrast to terrestrial weather, the supporting observations are typically sparse. Models play a vital role in establishing a physically meaningful context for interpreting limited observations, testing theory, and producing both nowcasts and forecasts. For example, with accurate forecasting of hazardous space weather conditions, spacecraft operators can place sensitive systems in safe modes, and power utilities can protect critical network components from damage caused by large currents induced in transmission lines by geomagnetic storms.

A simple mathematical model to predict sea surface temperature over the northwest Indian Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noori, Roohollah; Abbasi, Mahmud Reza; Adamowski, Jan Franklin; Dehghani, Majid

2017-10-01

A novel and simple mathematical model was developed in this study to enhance the capacity of a reduced-order model based on eigenvectors (RMEV) to predict sea surface temperature (SST) in the northwest portion of the Indian Ocean, including the Persian and Oman Gulfs and Arabian Sea. Developed using only the first two of 12,416 possible modes, the enhanced RMEV closely matched observed daily optimum interpolation SST (DOISST) values. Spatial distribution of the first mode indicated the greatest variations in DOISST occurred in the Persian Gulf. Also, the slightly increasing trend in the temporal component of the first mode observed in the study area over the last 34 years properly reflected the impact of climate change and rising DOISST. Given its simplicity and high level of accuracy, the enhanced RMEV can be applied to forecast DOISST in oceans, which the poor forecasting performance and large computational-time of other numerical models may not allow.

ICE CONTROL - Towards optimizing wind energy production during icing events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dorninger, Manfred; Strauss, Lukas; Serafin, Stefano; Beck, Alexander; Wittmann, Christoph; Weidle, Florian; Meier, Florian; Bourgeois, Saskia; Cattin, René; Burchhart, Thomas; Fink, Martin

2017-04-01

Forecasts of wind power production loss caused by icing weather conditions are produced by a chain of physical models. The model chain consists of a numerical weather prediction model, an icing model and a production loss model. Each element of the model chain is affected by significant uncertainty, which can be quantified using targeted observations and a probabilistic forecasting approach. In this contribution, we present preliminary results from the recently launched project ICE CONTROL, an Austrian research initiative on measurements, probabilistic forecasting, and verification of icing on wind turbine blades. ICE CONTROL includes an experimental field phase, consisting of measurement campaigns in a wind park in Rhineland-Palatinate, Germany, in the winters 2016/17 and 2017/18. Instruments deployed during the campaigns consist of a conventional icing detector on the turbine hub and newly devised ice sensors (eologix Sensor System) on the turbine blades, as well as meteorological sensors for wind, temperature, humidity, visibility, and precipitation type and spectra. Liquid water content and spectral characteristics of super-cooled water droplets are measured using a Fog Monitor FM-120. Three cameras document the icing conditions on the instruments and on the blades. Different modelling approaches are used to quantify the components of the model-chain uncertainties. The uncertainty related to the initial conditions of the weather prediction is evaluated using the existing global ensemble prediction system (EPS) of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Furthermore, observation system experiments are conducted with the AROME model and its 3D-Var data assimilation to investigate the impact of additional observations (such as Mode-S aircraft data, SCADA data and MSG cloud mask initialization) on the numerical icing forecast. The uncertainty related to model formulation is estimated from multi-physics ensembles based on the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) by perturbing parameters in the physical parameterization schemes. In addition, uncertainties of the icing model and of its adaptations to the rotating turbine blade are addressed. The model forecasts combined with the suite of instruments and their measurements make it possible to conduct a step-wise verification of all the components of the model chain - a novel aspect compared to similar ongoing and completed forecasting projects.

Seasonal forecasting of lightning and thunderstorm activity in tropical and temperate regions of the world.

PubMed

Dowdy, Andrew J

2016-02-11

Thunderstorms are convective systems characterised by the occurrence of lightning. Lightning and thunderstorm activity has been increasingly studied in recent years in relation to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and various other large-scale modes of atmospheric and oceanic variability. Large-scale modes of variability can sometimes be predictable several months in advance, suggesting potential for seasonal forecasting of lightning and thunderstorm activity in various regions throughout the world. To investigate this possibility, seasonal lightning activity in the world's tropical and temperate regions is examined here in relation to numerous different large-scale modes of variability. Of the seven modes of variability examined, ENSO has the strongest relationship with lightning activity during each individual season, with relatively little relationship for the other modes of variability. A measure of ENSO variability (the NINO3.4 index) is significantly correlated to local lightning activity at 53% of locations for one or more seasons throughout the year. Variations in atmospheric parameters commonly associated with thunderstorm activity are found to provide a plausible physical explanation for the variations in lightning activity associated with ENSO. It is demonstrated that there is potential for accurately predicting lightning and thunderstorm activity several months in advance in various regions throughout the world.

Seasonal forecasting of lightning and thunderstorm activity in tropical and temperate regions of the world

PubMed Central

Dowdy, Andrew J.

2016-01-01

Thunderstorms are convective systems characterised by the occurrence of lightning. Lightning and thunderstorm activity has been increasingly studied in recent years in relation to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and various other large-scale modes of atmospheric and oceanic variability. Large-scale modes of variability can sometimes be predictable several months in advance, suggesting potential for seasonal forecasting of lightning and thunderstorm activity in various regions throughout the world. To investigate this possibility, seasonal lightning activity in the world’s tropical and temperate regions is examined here in relation to numerous different large-scale modes of variability. Of the seven modes of variability examined, ENSO has the strongest relationship with lightning activity during each individual season, with relatively little relationship for the other modes of variability. A measure of ENSO variability (the NINO3.4 index) is significantly correlated to local lightning activity at 53% of locations for one or more seasons throughout the year. Variations in atmospheric parameters commonly associated with thunderstorm activity are found to provide a plausible physical explanation for the variations in lightning activity associated with ENSO. It is demonstrated that there is potential for accurately predicting lightning and thunderstorm activity several months in advance in various regions throughout the world. PMID:26865431

Release from Proactive Interference: Insufficiency of an Attentional Account

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

MacLeod, Colin M.

1975-01-01

If an attentional cue affects retroactive interference, perhaps a similar mechanism underlies release from proactive interference. This study tested this hypothesis by inserting an attentional cue before the final trial in Wickens' paradigm. (Author/RK)

5 CFR 831.1805 - Creditor agency processing for non-fraud claims.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... from any final payments (salary, accrued annual leave, etc.) due the debtor. If a balance is due after... (retroactive collection limited to 6 months of premiums); or (iv) Overpaid military retired pay an annuitant...

20 CFR 418.3425 - What resources do we exclude from counting?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... under a Federal statute where exclusion is required by such statute; (i) Disaster relief assistance as... title II retroactive payments as provided in § 416.1233 of this chapter; (m) Housing assistance as...

20 CFR 418.3425 - What resources do we exclude from counting?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... under a Federal statute where exclusion is required by such statute; (i) Disaster relief assistance as... title II retroactive payments as provided in § 416.1233 of this chapter; (m) Housing assistance as...

20 CFR 418.3425 - What resources do we exclude from counting?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... under a Federal statute where exclusion is required by such statute; (i) Disaster relief assistance as... title II retroactive payments as provided in § 416.1233 of this chapter; (m) Housing assistance as...

20 CFR 418.3425 - What resources do we exclude from counting?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... under a Federal statute where exclusion is required by such statute; (i) Disaster relief assistance as... title II retroactive payments as provided in § 416.1233 of this chapter; (m) Housing assistance as...

The Cost of Learning: Interference Effects in Memory Development

PubMed Central

Darby, Kevin P.; Sloutsky, Vladimir M.

2015-01-01

Learning often affects future learning and memory for previously learned information by exerting either facilitation or interference effects. Several theoretical accounts of interference effects have been proposed, each making different developmental predictions. This research examines interference effects across development, with the goal of better understanding mechanisms of interference and of memory development. Preschool-aged children and adults participated in a three-phased associative learning paradigm containing stimuli that were either unique or repeated across phases. Both age groups demonstrated interference effects, but only for repeated items. Whereas proactive interference effects were comparable across age groups, retroactive interference reached catastrophic-like levels in children. Additionally, retroactive interference increased in adults when contextual differences between phases were minimized (Experiment 2), and decreased in adults who were more successful at encoding repeated pairs of stimuli during a training phase (Experiment 3). These results are discussed with respect to theories of memory and memory development. PMID:25688907

Medicare changes create accounting, reporting, and auditing problems. Task Force on Federal Health Care Legislation, American Institute of Certified Public Accountants.

PubMed

1984-11-01

Hospital auditors and financial officers must adjust and react to the changing financial healthcare environment brought about by PPS. A close review of accounting systems, reporting methods, auditing procedures, and internal control systems should be made to determine that assets are safe-guarded and financial information is presented in conformity with GAAP. This article identified new problems and suggested solutions. Old tasks may no longer be necessary. For example, retroactive adjustments are not as important as they used to be. Estimates for capital and outpatient costs may continue to be required, but elaborate cost-finding techniques may no longer be necessary to estimate retroactive adjustments for reimbursable items. We recommend that prior to beginning an audit of a hospital's financial statements, each hospital's financial officers and its auditors discuss the possible accounting, reporting, and auditing implications as a result of PPS.

Cleanup liability and the Constitution

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Friedland, D.M.; Hagen, P.E.

It was observed in the July 1992 issue of this Journal that a plain reading of the Constitution's prohibition on [open quotes][ital ex post facto][close quotes] suggests that some environmental statutes such as the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act of 1980 (CERCLA or Superfund) and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act of 1976 (RCRA) conflict with Constitutional principles. Like many Constitutional principles, however, the Supreme Court's interpretation of the Constitution's bar on [ital ex post facto] laws has a long history. The Court has consistently interpreted this clause as limited to criminal or penal statutes. This article discussesmore » the history of the [ital ex post facto] clause, the retroactive application of CERCLA and RCRA, the decision that retroactive application of CERCLA and RCRA does not violate the [ital ex post facto] clause, and laws, regulations, and guidance. 27 refs.« less

Sea level forecasts for Pacific Islands based on Satellite Altimetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoon, H.; Merrifield, M. A.; Thompson, P. R.; Widlansky, M. J.; Marra, J. J.

2017-12-01

Coastal flooding at tropical Pacific Islands often occurs when positive sea level anomalies coincide with high tides. To help mitigate this risk, a forecast tool for daily-averaged sea level anomalies is developed that can be added to predicted tides at tropical Pacific Island sites. The forecast takes advantage of the observed westward propagation that sea level anomalies exhibit over a range of time scales. The daily near-real time altimetry gridded data from Archiving, Validation, and Interpretation of Satellite Oceanographic (AVISO) is used to specify upstream sea level at each site, with lead times computed based on mode-one baroclinic Rossby wave speeds. To validate the forecast, hindcasts are compared to tide gauge and nearby AVISO gridded time series. The forecast skills exceed persistence at most stations out to a month or more lead time. The skill is highest at stations where eddy variability is relatively weak. The impacts on the forecasts due to varying propagation speed, decay time, and smoothing of the AVISO data are examined. In addition, the inclusion of forecast winds in a forced wave equation is compared to the freely propagating results. Case studies are presented for seasonally high tide events throughout the Pacific Island region.

Machine Learning on Images: Combining Passive Microwave and Optical Data to Estimate Snow Water Equivalent

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dozier, J.; Tolle, K.; Bair, N.

2014-12-01

We have a problem that may be a specific example of a generic one. The task is to estimate spatiotemporally distributed estimates of snow water equivalent (SWE) in snow-dominated mountain environments, including those that lack on-the-ground measurements. Several independent methods exist, but all are problematic. The remotely sensed date of disappearance of snow from each pixel can be combined with a calculation of melt to reconstruct the accumulated SWE for each day back to the last significant snowfall. Comparison with streamflow measurements in mountain ranges where such data are available shows this method to be accurate, but the big disadvantage is that SWE can only be calculated retroactively after snow disappears, and even then only for areas with little accumulation during the melt season. Passive microwave sensors offer real-time global SWE estimates but suffer from several issues, notably signal loss in wet snow or in forests, saturation in deep snow, subpixel variability in the mountains owing to the large (~25 km) pixel size, and SWE overestimation in the presence of large grains such as depth and surface hoar. Throughout the winter and spring, snow-covered area can be measured at sub-km spatial resolution with optical sensors, with accuracy and timeliness improved by interpolating and smoothing across multiple days. So the question is, how can we establish the relationship between Reconstruction—available only after the snow goes away—and passive microwave and optical data to accurately estimate SWE during the snow season, when the information can help forecast spring runoff? Linear regression provides one answer, but can modern machine learning techniques (used to persuade people to click on web advertisements) adapt to improve forecasts of floods and droughts in areas where more than one billion people depend on snowmelt for their water resources?

An evaluation of deficits in semantic cueing and proactive and retroactive interference as early features of Alzheimer's disease.

PubMed

Crocco, Elizabeth; Curiel, Rosie E; Acevedo, Amarilis; Czaja, Sara J; Loewenstein, David A

2014-09-01

To determine the degree to which susceptibility to different types of semantic interference may reflect the initial manifestations of early Alzheimer's disease (AD) beyond the effects of global memory impairment. Normal elderly (NE) subjects (n = 47), subjects with amnestic mild cognitive impairment (aMCI; n = 34), and subjects with probable AD (n = 40) were evaluated by using a unique cued recall paradigm that allowed for evaluation of both proactive and retroactive interference effects while controlling for global memory impairment (i.e., Loewenstein-Acevedo Scales of Semantic Interference and Learning [LASSI-L] procedure). Controlling for overall memory impairment, aMCI subjects had much greater proactive and retroactive interference effects than NE subjects. LASSI-L indices of learning by using cued recall revealed high levels of sensitivity and specificity, with an overall correct classification rate of 90%. These measures provided better discrimination than traditional neuropsychological measures of memory function. The LASSI-L paradigm is unique and unlike other assessments of memory in that items posed for cued recall are explicitly presented, and semantic interference and cueing effects can be assessed while controlling for initial level of memory impairment. This is a powerful procedure that allows the participant to serve as his or her own control. The high levels of discrimination between subjects with aMCI and normal cognition that exceeded traditional neuropsychological measures makes the LASSI-L worthy of further research in the detection of early AD. Copyright © 2014 American Association for Geriatric Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The WFIRST Galaxy Survey Exposure Time Calculator

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hirata, Christopher M.; Gehrels, Neil; Kneib, Jean-Paul; Kruk, Jeffrey; Rhodes, Jason; Wang, Yun; Zoubian, Julien

2013-01-01

This document describes the exposure time calculator for the Wide-Field Infrared Survey Telescope (WFIRST) high-latitude survey. The calculator works in both imaging and spectroscopic modes. In addition to the standard ETC functions (e.g. background and SN determination), the calculator integrates over the galaxy population and forecasts the density and redshift distribution of galaxy shapes usable for weak lensing (in imaging mode) and the detected emission lines (in spectroscopic mode). The source code is made available for public use.

Satellite provided customer premise services: A forecast of potential domestic demand through the year 2000. Volume 2: Technical report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kratochvil, D.; Bowyer, J.; Bhushan, C.; Steinnagel, K.; Al-Kinani, G.

1983-01-01

The potential United States domestic telecommunications demand for satellite provided customer premises voice, data and video services through the year 2000 were forecast, so that this information on service demand would be available to aid in NASA program planning. To accomplish this overall purpose the following objectives were achieved: development of a forecast of the total domestic telecommunications demand, identification of that portion of the telecommunications demand suitable for transmission by satellite systems, identification of that portion of the satellite market addressable by Computer premises services systems, identification of that portion of the satellite market addressabble by Ka-band CPS system, and postulation of a Ka-band CPS network on a nationwide and local level. The approach employed included the use of a variety of forecasting models, a market distribution model and a network optimization model. Forecasts were developed for; 1980, 1990, and 2000; voice, data and video services; terrestrial and satellite delivery modes; and C, Ku and Ka-bands.

Satellite provided customer premise services: A forecast of potential domestic demand through the year 2000. Volume 2: Technical report

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kratochvil, D.; Bowyer, J.; Bhushan, C.; Steinnagel, K.; Al-Kinani, G.

1983-08-01

The potential United States domestic telecommunications demand for satellite provided customer premises voice, data and video services through the year 2000 were forecast, so that this information on service demand would be available to aid in NASA program planning. To accomplish this overall purpose the following objectives were achieved: development of a forecast of the total domestic telecommunications demand, identification of that portion of the telecommunications demand suitable for transmission by satellite systems, identification of that portion of the satellite market addressable by Computer premises services systems, identification of that portion of the satellite market addressabble by Ka-band CPS system, and postulation of a Ka-band CPS network on a nationwide and local level. The approach employed included the use of a variety of forecasting models, a market distribution model and a network optimization model. Forecasts were developed for; 1980, 1990, and 2000; voice, data and video services; terrestrial and satellite delivery modes; and C, Ku and Ka-bands.

42 CFR 495.362 - Retroactive approval of FFP with an effective date of February 18, 2009.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... HEALTH RECORD TECHNOLOGY INCENTIVE PROGRAM Requirements Specific to the Medicaid Program § 495.362... payments to providers, a State may request consideration of FFP by recorded request in a HIT advance...

Retroactive Stop Loss Special Pay

Science.gov Websites

earned this money. It doesn't matter whether you were Active or Reserve, whether you're a veteran who organizations, and the media. But there is still money left to be claimed, and the deadline is approaching. The

Statistical downscaling forecast of Chinese winter temperature based on the autumn SST anomalies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, J.

2017-12-01

This study investigates the impacts of the autumn sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) on interannual variations of Chinese winter temperature, and discusses the potential predictability of December-January-February (DJF) 2-m air temperature anomalies (TSA) over China based on the intimate linkage between the DJF TSA and autumn SSTA. According to the Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis, three leading EOF modes jointly account for 80% of the total TSA variances and are characterized by a homogeneous spatial pattern, a north-south seesaw and a cross structure. The first three EOFs exhibit a stable feature revealed by cross-validation, suggesting the potential predictability of the DJF TSA. The EOF1 mode is influenced by changes in the intensities of the Siberian High (SH), East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) and East Asian Trough related to an Eurasian pattern teleconnection, which can be tracked back to September-October-November (SON) SSTA associated with two SSTA tripole patterns in the North Pacific and North Atlantic, a dipole mode in the Indian Ocean and an ENSO-like mode in the equatorial and subtropical Pacific. However, the Arctic Oscillation plays an important role in the second mode. The teleconnection connecting the atmospheric circulation anomalies in two hemispheres indicates that the configuration of global SON SSTA induces the two annular modes and causes a TSA oscillation between the northern and southern parts of China. The third mode is related to the westward shift of the SH and western pathway EAWM, which are attributed to two dipole modes in the North Pacific and South Pacific, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and Indian Ocean Basin Mode. Therefore a physically-based statistical model is established based on autumn SSTA indices. Cross-validation suggests that this statistical downscaling forecast model shows a good performance in predicting the DJF TSA.

Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) Agro-climatology Analysis Tools and Knowledge Base Products for Food Security Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Budde, M. E.; Rowland, J.; Anthony, M.; Palka, S.; Martinez, J.; Hussain, R.

2017-12-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) supports the use of Earth observation data for food security monitoring through its role as an implementing partner of the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET). The USGS Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center has developed tools designed to aid food security analysts in developing assumptions of agro-climatological outcomes. There are four primary steps to developing agro-climatology assumptions; including: 1) understanding the climatology, 2) evaluating current climate modes, 3) interpretation of forecast information, and 4) incorporation of monitoring data. Analysts routinely forecast outcomes well in advance of the growing season, which relies on knowledge of climatology. A few months prior to the growing season, analysts can assess large-scale climate modes that might influence seasonal outcomes. Within two months of the growing season, analysts can evaluate seasonal forecast information as indicators. Once the growing season begins, monitoring data, based on remote sensing and field information, can characterize the start of season and remain integral monitoring tools throughout the duration of the season. Each subsequent step in the process can lead to modifications of the original climatology assumption. To support such analyses, we have created an agro-climatology analysis tool that characterizes each step in the assumption building process. Satellite-based rainfall and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI)-based products support both the climatology and monitoring steps, sea-surface temperature data and knowledge of the global climate system inform the climate modes, and precipitation forecasts at multiple scales support the interpretation of forecast information. Organizing these data for a user-specified area provides a valuable tool for food security analysts to better formulate agro-climatology assumptions that feed into food security assessments. We have also developed a knowledge base for over 80 countries that provide rainfall and NDVI-based products, including annual and seasonal summaries, historical anomalies, coefficient of variation, and number of years below 70% of annual or seasonal averages. These products provide a quick look for analysts to assess the agro-climatology of a country.

CEREF: A hybrid data-driven model for forecasting annual streamflow from a socio-hydrological system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Hongbo; Singh, Vijay P.; Wang, Bin; Yu, Yinghao

2016-09-01

Hydrological forecasting is complicated by flow regime alterations in a coupled socio-hydrologic system, encountering increasingly non-stationary, nonlinear and irregular changes, which make decision support difficult for future water resources management. Currently, many hybrid data-driven models, based on the decomposition-prediction-reconstruction principle, have been developed to improve the ability to make predictions of annual streamflow. However, there exist many problems that require further investigation, the chief among which is the direction of trend components decomposed from annual streamflow series and is always difficult to ascertain. In this paper, a hybrid data-driven model was proposed to capture this issue, which combined empirical mode decomposition (EMD), radial basis function neural networks (RBFNN), and external forces (EF) variable, also called the CEREF model. The hybrid model employed EMD for decomposition and RBFNN for intrinsic mode function (IMF) forecasting, and determined future trend component directions by regression with EF as basin water demand representing the social component in the socio-hydrologic system. The Wuding River basin was considered for the case study, and two standard statistical measures, root mean squared error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE), were used to evaluate the performance of CEREF model and compare with other models: the autoregressive (AR), RBFNN and EMD-RBFNN. Results indicated that the CEREF model had lower RMSE and MAE statistics, 42.8% and 7.6%, respectively, than did other models, and provided a superior alternative for forecasting annual runoff in the Wuding River basin. Moreover, the CEREF model can enlarge the effective intervals of streamflow forecasting compared to the EMD-RBFNN model by introducing the water demand planned by the government department to improve long-term prediction accuracy. In addition, we considered the high-frequency component, a frequent subject of concern in EMD-based forecasting, and results showed that removing high-frequency component is an effective measure to improve forecasting precision and is suggested for use with the CEREF model for better performance. Finally, the study concluded that the CEREF model can be used to forecast non-stationary annual streamflow change as a co-evolution of hydrologic and social systems with better accuracy. Also, the modification about removing high-frequency can further improve the performance of the CEREF model. It should be noted that the CEREF model is beneficial for data-driven hydrologic forecasting in complex socio-hydrologic systems, and as a simple data-driven socio-hydrologic forecasting model, deserves more attention.

42 CFR 423.466 - Timeframes for coordination of benefits.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... Section 423.466 Public Health CENTERS FOR MEDICARE & MEDICAID SERVICES, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES (CONTINUED) MEDICARE PROGRAM VOLUNTARY MEDICARE PRESCRIPTION DRUG BENEFIT Coordination of Part D...) Retroactive claims adjustments, underpayment refunds, and overpayment recoveries. Whenever a sponsor receives...

44 CFR 208.66 - Reopening of claims for retrospective or retroactive adjustment of costs.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... adoption of a generally applicable State or local law, ordinance or wage order or a cost-of-living... submission. (c) The Sponsoring Agency must notify DHS as early as practicable that it anticipates such a...

44 CFR 208.66 - Reopening of claims for retrospective or retroactive adjustment of costs.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... adoption of a generally applicable State or local law, ordinance or wage order or a cost-of-living... submission. (c) The Sponsoring Agency must notify DHS as early as practicable that it anticipates such a...

44 CFR 208.66 - Reopening of claims for retrospective or retroactive adjustment of costs.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... adoption of a generally applicable State or local law, ordinance or wage order or a cost-of-living... submission. (c) The Sponsoring Agency must notify DHS as early as practicable that it anticipates such a...

44 CFR 208.66 - Reopening of claims for retrospective or retroactive adjustment of costs.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... adoption of a generally applicable State or local law, ordinance or wage order or a cost-of-living... submission. (c) The Sponsoring Agency must notify DHS as early as practicable that it anticipates such a...

44 CFR 208.66 - Reopening of claims for retrospective or retroactive adjustment of costs.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... adoption of a generally applicable State or local law, ordinance or wage order or a cost-of-living... submission. (c) The Sponsoring Agency must notify DHS as early as practicable that it anticipates such a...

29 CFR 452.54 - Retroactive rules.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... Relating to Labor OFFICE OF LABOR-MANAGEMENT STANDARDS, DEPARTMENT OF LABOR LABOR-MANAGEMENT STANDARDS GENERAL STATEMENT CONCERNING THE ELECTION PROVISIONS OF THE LABOR-MANAGEMENT REPORTING AND DISCLOSURE ACT... of the requirement. It would be unreasonable for a labor organization to enforce eligibility...

29 CFR 452.54 - Retroactive rules.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... Relating to Labor OFFICE OF LABOR-MANAGEMENT STANDARDS, DEPARTMENT OF LABOR LABOR-MANAGEMENT STANDARDS GENERAL STATEMENT CONCERNING THE ELECTION PROVISIONS OF THE LABOR-MANAGEMENT REPORTING AND DISCLOSURE ACT... of the requirement. It would be unreasonable for a labor organization to enforce eligibility...

A Posthypnotic Amnesia: Suggestions of an Active Process in Dissociative Phenomena

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Coe, William C.; And Others

1976-01-01

A retroactive inhibition design was used to examine the process of posthypnotic amnesia. The results supported the notion that "forgotten" material is as available to amnesic subjects at some level as it is to nonamnesic subjects. (Editor)

76 FR 6319 - Designation of Biobased Items for Federal Procurement

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-02-04

... to have retroactive effect, and does not involve administrative appeals. D. Executive Order 13132... at: http://www.biopreferred.gov . * * * (b) Advertising, labeling and marketing claims. Manufacturers and vendors are reminded that their advertising, labeling, and other marketing claims, including...

Verification of Global Assimilation of Ionospheric Measurements Gauss Markov (GAIM-GM) Model Forecast Accuracy

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-09-01

m b e r o f O cc u rr e n ce s 50 ( a ) Kp 0-3 (b) Kp 4-9 Figure 25. Scatter plot of...dependent physics based model that uses the Ionospheric Forecast Model ( IFM ) as a background model upon which perturbations are imposed via a Kalman filter...vertical output resolution as the IFM . GAIM-GM can also be run in a regional mode with a finer resolution (Scherliess et al., 2006). GAIM-GM is

The Use of Principal Components in Long-Range Forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chern, Jonq-Gong

Large-scale modes of the global sea surface temperatures and the Northern Hemisphere tropospheric circulation are described by principal component analysis. The first and the second SST components well describe the El Nino episodes, and the El Nino index (ENI), suggested in this study, is consistent with the winter Southern Oscillation index (SOI), where this ENI is a composite component of the weighted first and second SST components. The large-scale interactive modes of the coupling ocean-atmosphere system are identified by cross-correlation analysis The result shows that the first SST component is strongly correlated with the first component of geopotential height in lead time of 6 months. In the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) evolution, the El Nino mode strongly influences the winter tropospheric circulation in the mid -latitudes for up to three leading seasons. The regional long-range variation of climate is investigated with these major components of the SST and the tropospheric circulation. In the mid-latitude, the climate of the central United States shows a weak linkage with these large-scale circulations, and the climate of the western United States appears to be consistently associated with the ENSO modes. These El Nino modes also show a dominant influence on Eastern Asia as evidenced in Taiwan Mei-Yu patterns. Possible regional long-range forecasting schemes, utilizing the complementary characteristics of the winter El Nino mode and SST anomalies, are examined with the Taiwan Mei-Yu.

Simulation of the dispersion of the Eyjafjallajökull plume over Europe with COSMO-ART in the operational mode

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vogel, H.; Förstner, J.; Vogel, B.; Hanisch, T.; Mühr, B.; Schättler, U.; Schad, T.

2013-05-01

An extended version of the German operational weather forecast model was used to simulate the ash dispersion during the eruption of the Eyjafjallajökull. Sensitivity runs show the ability of the model to simulate thin ash layers when an increased vertical resolution is used. Calibration of the model results with measured data allows for a quantitative forecast of the ash concentration. An independent comparison of the simulated number concentration of 3 μm particles and observations reveals nearly perfect agreement. However, this perfect agreement could only be reached after modification of the emissions. As an operational forecast was launched every six hours, a time-lagged ensemble was obtained. Hence, the probability of violation of a certain threshold can be calculated. This is valuable information for the forecasters advising the organizations responsible for the closing of the airspace.

A preliminary study of the impact of the ERS 1 C band scatterometer wind data on the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts global data assimilation system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hoffman, Ross N.

1993-01-01

A preliminary assessment of the impact of the ERS 1 scatterometer wind data on the current European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts analysis and forecast system has been carried out. Although the scatterometer data results in changes to the analyses and forecasts, there is no consistent improvement or degradation. Our results are based on comparing analyses and forecasts from assimilation cycles. The two sets of analyses are very similar except for the low level wind fields over the ocean. Impacts on the analyzed wind fields are greater over the southern ocean, where other data are scarce. For the most part the mass field increments are too small to balance the wind increments. The effect of the nonlinear normal mode initialization on the analysis differences is quite small, but we observe that the differences tend to wash out in the subsequent 6-hour forecast. In the Northern Hemisphere, analysis differences are very small, except directly at the scatterometer locations. Forecast comparisons reveal large differences in the Southern Hemisphere after 72 hours. Notable differences in the Northern Hemisphere do not appear until late in the forecast. Overall, however, the Southern Hemisphere impacts are neutral. The experiments described are preliminary in several respects. We expect these data to ultimately prove useful for global data assimilation.

Overview of NSTX Upgrade initial results and modelling highlights

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menard, J. E.; Allain, J. P.; Battaglia, D. J.; Bedoya, F.; Bell, R. E.; Belova, E.; Berkery, J. W.; Boyer, M. D.; Crocker, N.; Diallo, A.; Ebrahimi, F.; Ferraro, N.; Fredrickson, E.; Frerichs, H.; Gerhardt, S.; Gorelenkov, N.; Guttenfelder, W.; Heidbrink, W.; Kaita, R.; Kaye, S. M.; Kriete, D. M.; Kubota, S.; LeBlanc, B. P.; Liu, D.; Lunsford, R.; Mueller, D.; Myers, C. E.; Ono, M.; Park, J.-K.; Podesta, M.; Raman, R.; Reinke, M.; Ren, Y.; Sabbagh, S. A.; Schmitz, O.; Scotti, F.; Sechrest, Y.; Skinner, C. H.; Smith, D. R.; Soukhanovskii, V.; Stoltzfus-Dueck, T.; Yuh, H.; Wang, Z.; Waters, I.; Ahn, J.-W.; Andre, R.; Barchfeld, R.; Beiersdorfer, P.; Bertelli, N.; Bhattacharjee, A.; Brennan, D.; Buttery, R.; Capece, A.; Canal, G.; Canik, J.; Chang, C. S.; Darrow, D.; Delgado-Aparicio, L.; Domier, C.; Ethier, S.; Evans, T.; Ferron, J.; Finkenthal, M.; Fonck, R.; Gan, K.; Gates, D.; Goumiri, I.; Gray, T.; Hosea, J.; Humphreys, D.; Jarboe, T.; Jardin, S.; Jaworski, M. A.; Koel, B.; Kolemen, E.; Ku, S.; La Haye, R. J.; Levinton, F.; Luhmann, N.; Maingi, R.; Maqueda, R.; McKee, G.; Meier, E.; Myra, J.; Perkins, R.; Poli, F.; Rhodes, T.; Riquezes, J.; Rowley, C.; Russell, D.; Schuster, E.; Stratton, B.; Stutman, D.; Taylor, G.; Tritz, K.; Wang, W.; Wirth, B.; Zweben, S. J.

2017-10-01

The National Spherical Torus Experiment (NSTX) has undergone a major upgrade, and the NSTX Upgrade (NSTX-U) Project was completed in the summer of 2015. NSTX-U first plasma was subsequently achieved, diagnostic and control systems have been commissioned, the H-mode accessed, magnetic error fields identified and mitigated, and the first physics research campaign carried out. During ten run weeks of operation, NSTX-U surpassed NSTX record pulse-durations and toroidal fields (TF), and high-performance ~1 MA H-mode plasmas comparable to the best of NSTX have been sustained near and slightly above the n  =  1 no-wall stability limit and with H-mode confinement multiplier H98y,2 above 1. Transport and turbulence studies in L-mode plasmas have identified the coexistence of at least two ion-gyro-scale turbulent micro-instabilities near the same radial location but propagating in opposite (i.e. ion and electron diamagnetic) directions. These modes have the characteristics of ion-temperature gradient and micro-tearing modes, respectively, and the role of these modes in contributing to thermal transport is under active investigation. The new second more tangential neutral beam injection was observed to significantly modify the stability of two types of Alfven eigenmodes. Improvements in offline disruption forecasting were made in the areas of identification of rotating MHD modes and other macroscopic instabilities using the disruption event characterization and forecasting code. Lastly, the materials analysis and particle probe was utilized on NSTX-U for the first time and enabled assessments of the correlation between boronized wall conditions and plasma performance. These and other highlights from the first run campaign of NSTX-U are described.

Overview of NSTX Upgrade Initial Results and Modelling Highlights

DOE Data Explorer

Menard, J.E. [Princeton Plasma Physics Lab. (PPPL), Princeton, NJ (United States)] (ORCID:0000000312923286); Allain, J.P.; Battaglia, D.J. [Princeton Plasma Physics Lab. (PPPL), Princeton, NJ (United States)] (ORCID:0000000188979740); Bedoya, F.; Bell, R.E. [Princeton Plasma Physics Lab. (PPPL), Princeton, NJ (United States)] (ORCID:000000019544498X); Belova, E. [Princeton Plasma Physics Lab. (PPPL), Princeton, NJ (United States)] (ORCID:0000000215251027); Berkery, J.W. [Columbia University, New York, NY, United States of America; Boyer, M.D. [Princeton Plasma Physics Lab. (PPPL), Princeton, NJ (United States)] (ORCID:0000000268459155); Crocker, N.; Diallo, A. [Princeton Plasma Physics Lab. (PPPL), Princeton, NJ (United States)] (ORCID:000000020706060X); Ebrahimi, F. [Princeton Plasma Physics Lab. (PPPL), Princeton, NJ (United States)] (ORCID:0000000331095367); Ferraro, N. [Princeton Plasma Physics Lab. (PPPL), Princeton, NJ (United States)] (ORCID:0000000263487827); Fredrickson, E. [Princeton Plasma Physics Lab. (PPPL), Princeton, NJ (United States); Frerichs, H.; Gerhardt, S. [Princeton Plasma Physics Lab. (PPPL), Princeton, NJ (United States)] (ORCID:0000000225462194); Gorelenkov, N. [Princeton Plasma Physics Lab. (PPPL), Princeton, NJ (United States); Guttenfelder, W. [Princeton Plasma Physics Lab. (PPPL), Princeton, NJ (United States)] (ORCID:000000018181058X); Heidbrink, W.; Kaita, R. [Princeton Plasma Physics Lab. (PPPL), Princeton, NJ (United States)] (ORCID:0000000285159824); Kaye, S.M. [Princeton Plasma Physics Lab. (PPPL), Princeton, NJ (United States); Kriete, D.M.; Kubota, S.; LeBlanc, B.P. [Princeton Plasma Physics Lab. (PPPL), Princeton, NJ (United States)] (ORCID:0000000314550129); Liu, D. [Princeton Plasma Physics Lab. (PPPL), Princeton, NJ (United States)] (ORCID:0000000191747078); Lunsford, R. [Princeton Plasma Physics Lab. (PPPL), Princeton, NJ (United States)] (ORCID:0000000335886801); Mueller, D. [Princeton Plasma Physics Lab. (PPPL), Princeton, NJ (United States)] (ORCID:0000000224563356); Myers, C.E.; Ono, M. [Princeton Plasma Physics Lab. (PPPL), Princeton, NJ (United States); Park, J-K. [Princeton Plasma Physics Lab. (PPPL), Princeton, NJ (United States)] (ORCID:0000000324198667); Podesta, M. [Princeton Plasma Physics Lab. (PPPL), Princeton, NJ (United States)] (ORCID:0000000349750585); Raman, R. [Princeton Plasma Physics Lab. (PPPL), Princeton, NJ (United States)] (ORCID:0000000220273271); Reinke, M.; Ren, Y. [Princeton Plasma Physics Lab. (PPPL), Princeton, NJ (United States)] (ORCID:0000000198316035); Sabbagh, S.A.; Schmitz, O.; Scotti, F. [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, United States of America; Sechrest, Y.; Skinner, C.H. [Princeton Plasma Physics Lab. (PPPL), Princeton, NJ (United States); Smith, D.R. [University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI, United States of America; Soukhanovskii, V.; Stoltzfus-Dueck, T. [Princeton Plasma Physics Lab. (PPPL), Princeton, NJ (United States)] (ORCID:0000000325876298); Yuh, H.; Wang, Z. [Princeton Plasma Physics Lab. (PPPL), Princeton, NJ (United States); Waters, I.; Ahn, J-W.; Andre, R.; Barchfield, R.; Beiersdorfer, P.; Bertelli, N. [Princeton Plasma Physics Lab. (PPPL), Princeton, NJ (United States)] (ORCID:0000000293267585); Bhattacharjee, A. [Princeton Plasma Physics Lab. (PPPL), Princeton, NJ (United States)] (ORCID:0000000164110178); Boyle, D. [Princeton Plasma Physics Lab. (PPPL), Princeton, NJ (United States)] (ORCID:0000000180918169); Brennan, D.; Buttery, R.; Capece, A. [Princeton Plasma Physics Lab. (PPPL), Princeton, NJ (United States)] (ORCID:0000000341477174); Canal, G.; Canik, J.; Chang, C.S. [Princeton Plasma Physics Lab. (PPPL), Princeton, NJ (United States)] (ORCID:0000000233465731); Darrow, D. [Princeton Plasma Physics Lab. (PPPL), Princeton, NJ (United States); Delgado-Aparicio, L. [Princeton Plasma Physics Lab. (PPPL), Princeton, NJ (United States)] (ORCID:0000000167394380); Domier, C.; Ethier, S. [Princeton Plasma Physics Lab. (PPPL), Princeton, NJ (United States); Evans, T.; Ferron, J.; Finkenthal, M.; Fonck, R.; Gan, K.; Gates, D. [Princeton Plasma Physics Lab. (PPPL), Princeton, NJ (United States)] (ORCID:0000000156793124); Goumiri, I. [University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI, United States of America; Gray, T.; Hosea, J. [Princeton Plasma Physics Lab. (PPPL), Princeton, NJ (United States); Humphreys, D.; Jarboe, T.; Jardin, S. [Princeton Plasma Physics Lab. (PPPL), Princeton, NJ (United States)] (ORCID:0000000163906908); Jaworski, M.A. [Princeton Plasma Physics Lab. (PPPL), Princeton, NJ (United States); Koel, B.; Kolemen, E. [Princeton Plasma Physics Lab. (PPPL), Princeton, NJ (United States)] (ORCID:0000000342123247); Ku, S. [Princeton Plasma Physics Lab. (PPPL), Princeton, NJ (United States)] (ORCID:0000000299641208); LaHaye, R.J.; Levinton, F.; Luhmann Jr., N.; Maingi, R. [Princeton Plasma Physics Lab. (PPPL), Princeton, NJ (United States)] (ORCID:0000000312388121); Maqueda, R. [X Science LLC, Plainsboro, NJ, United States of America; McKee, G.; Meier, E.; Myra, J.; Perkins, R. [Princeton Plasma Physics Lab. (PPPL), Princeton, NJ (United States)] (ORCID:0000000272160201); Poli, F. [Princeton Plasma Physics Lab. (PPPL), Princeton, NJ (United States)] (ORCID:0000000339594371); Rhodes, T.; Riquezes, J.; Rowley, C. [Princeton Plasma Physics Lab. (PPPL), Princeton, NJ (United States)] (ORCID:0000000290995739); Russell, D.; Schuster, E.; Stratton, B. [Princeton Plasma Physics Lab. (PPPL), Princeton, NJ (United States); Stutman, D.; Taylor, G. [Princeton Plasma Physics Lab. (PPPL), Princeton, NJ (United States)] (ORCID:0000000258487152); Tritz, K. [Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, United States of America; Wang, W. [Princeton Plasma Physics Lab. (PPPL), Princeton, NJ (United States); Wirth, B.; Zweben, S.J. [Princeton Plasma Physics Lab. (PPPL), Princeton, NJ (United States)] (ORCID:0000000217380586)

2017-01-01

The National Spherical Torus Experiment (NSTX) has undergone a major upgrade, and the NSTX Upgrade (NSTX-U) Project was completed in the summer of 2015. NSTX-U first plasma was subsequently achieved, diagnostic and control systems have been commissioned, H-Mode accessed, magnetic error fields identified and mitigated, and the first physics research campaign carried out. During 10 run weeks of operation, NSTX-U surpassed NSTX-record pulse-durations and toroidal fields, and high-performance ~1MA H-mode plasmas comparable to the best of NSTX have been sustained near and slightly above the n=1 no-wall stability limit and with H-mode confinement multiplier H98y2 above 1. Transport and turbulence studies in L-mode plasmas have identified the coexistence of at least two ion-gyro-scale turbulent micro-instabilities near the same radial location but propagating in opposite (i.e. ion and electron diamagnetic) directions. These modes have the characteristics of ion-temperature gradient and micro-tearing modes, respectively, and the role of these modes in contributing to thermal transport is under active investigation. The new second more tangential neutral beam injection was observed to significantly modify the stability of two types of Alfven Eigenmodes. Improvements in offline disruption forecasting were made in the areas of identification of rotating MHD modes and other macroscopic instabilities using the Disruption Event Characterization and Forecasting (DECAF) code. Lastly, the Materials Analysis and Particle Probe (MAPP) was utilized on NSTX-U for the first time and enabled assessments of the correlation between boronized wall conditions and plasma performance. These and other highlights from the first run campaign of NSTX-U are described.

Overview of NSTX Upgrade initial results and modelling highlights

DOE PAGES

Menard, J. E.; Allain, J. P.; Battaglia, D. J.; ...

2017-06-20

The National Spherical Torus Experiment (NSTX) has undergone a major upgrade, and the NSTX Upgrade (NSTX-U) Project was completed in the summer of 2015. NSTX-U first plasma was subsequently achieved, diagnostic and control systems have been commissioned, the H-mode accessed, magnetic error fields identified and mitigated, and the first physics research campaign carried out. During ten run weeks of operation, NSTX-U surpassed NSTX record pulse-durations and toroidal fields (TF), and high-performance ~1 MA H-mode plasmas comparable to the best of NSTX have been sustained near and slightly above the n = 1 no-wall stability limit and with H-mode confinement multipliermore » H 98y,2 above 1. Transport and turbulence studies in L-mode plasmas have identified the coexistence of at least two ion-gyro-scale turbulent micro-instabilities near the same radial location but propagating in opposite (i.e. ion and electron diamagnetic) directions. These modes have the characteristics of ion-temperature gradient and micro-tearing modes, respectively, and the role of these modes in contributing to thermal transport is under active investigation. The new second more tangential neutral beam injection was observed to significantly modify the stability of two types of Alfven eigenmodes. Improvements in offline disruption forecasting were made in the areas of identification of rotating MHD modes and other macroscopic instabilities using the disruption event characterization and forecasting code. Finally, the materials analysis and particle probe was utilized on NSTX-U for the first time and enabled assessments of the correlation between boronized wall conditions and plasma performance. These and other highlights from the first run campaign of NSTX-U are described.« less

Interest rate next-day variation prediction based on hybrid feedforward neural network, particle swarm optimization, and multiresolution techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lahmiri, Salim

2016-02-01

Multiresolution analysis techniques including continuous wavelet transform, empirical mode decomposition, and variational mode decomposition are tested in the context of interest rate next-day variation prediction. In particular, multiresolution analysis techniques are used to decompose interest rate actual variation and feedforward neural network for training and prediction. Particle swarm optimization technique is adopted to optimize its initial weights. For comparison purpose, autoregressive moving average model, random walk process and the naive model are used as main reference models. In order to show the feasibility of the presented hybrid models that combine multiresolution analysis techniques and feedforward neural network optimized by particle swarm optimization, we used a set of six illustrative interest rates; including Moody's seasoned Aaa corporate bond yield, Moody's seasoned Baa corporate bond yield, 3-Month, 6-Month and 1-Year treasury bills, and effective federal fund rate. The forecasting results show that all multiresolution-based prediction systems outperform the conventional reference models on the criteria of mean absolute error, mean absolute deviation, and root mean-squared error. Therefore, it is advantageous to adopt hybrid multiresolution techniques and soft computing models to forecast interest rate daily variations as they provide good forecasting performance.

A novel hybrid decomposition-and-ensemble model based on CEEMD and GWO for short-term PM2.5 concentration forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niu, Mingfei; Wang, Yufang; Sun, Shaolong; Li, Yongwu

2016-06-01

To enhance prediction reliability and accuracy, a hybrid model based on the promising principle of "decomposition and ensemble" and a recently proposed meta-heuristic called grey wolf optimizer (GWO) is introduced for daily PM2.5 concentration forecasting. Compared with existing PM2.5 forecasting methods, this proposed model has improved the prediction accuracy and hit rates of directional prediction. The proposed model involves three main steps, i.e., decomposing the original PM2.5 series into several intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) via complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition (CEEMD) for simplifying the complex data; individually predicting each IMF with support vector regression (SVR) optimized by GWO; integrating all predicted IMFs for the ensemble result as the final prediction by another SVR optimized by GWO. Seven benchmark models, including single artificial intelligence (AI) models, other decomposition-ensemble models with different decomposition methods and models with the same decomposition-ensemble method but optimized by different algorithms, are considered to verify the superiority of the proposed hybrid model. The empirical study indicates that the proposed hybrid decomposition-ensemble model is remarkably superior to all considered benchmark models for its higher prediction accuracy and hit rates of directional prediction.

Extraction and prediction of indices for monsoon intraseasonal oscillations: an approach based on nonlinear Laplacian spectral analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sabeerali, C. T.; Ajayamohan, R. S.; Giannakis, Dimitrios; Majda, Andrew J.

2017-11-01

An improved index for real-time monitoring and forecast verification of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISOs) is introduced using the recently developed nonlinear Laplacian spectral analysis (NLSA) technique. Using NLSA, a hierarchy of Laplace-Beltrami (LB) eigenfunctions are extracted from unfiltered daily rainfall data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project over the south Asian monsoon region. Two modes representing the full life cycle of the northeastward-propagating boreal summer MISO are identified from the hierarchy of LB eigenfunctions. These modes have a number of advantages over MISO modes extracted via extended empirical orthogonal function analysis including higher memory and predictability, stronger amplitude and higher fractional explained variance over the western Pacific, Western Ghats, and adjoining Arabian Sea regions, and more realistic representation of the regional heat sources over the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Real-time prediction of NLSA-derived MISO indices is demonstrated via extended-range hindcasts based on NCEP Coupled Forecast System version 2 operational output. It is shown that in these hindcasts the NLSA MISO indices remain predictable out to ˜3 weeks.

5 CFR 890.103 - Correction of errors.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... (CONTINUED) FEDERAL EMPLOYEES HEALTH BENEFITS PROGRAM Administration and General Provisions § 890.103... States Code, and permit the individual to enroll in another health benefits plan for purposes of this... health care providers. (e) Retroactive corrections are subject to withholdings and contributions under...

32 CFR 279.6 - Reporting.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... Department of Defense (Continued) OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE (CONTINUED) MISCELLANEOUS RETROACTIVE STOP LOSS SPECIAL PAY COMPENSATION § 279.6 Reporting. The Department of Defense shall provide a consolidated report to the congressional defense committees on the implementation of section 310 of Public Law...

32 CFR 279.6 - Reporting.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... Department of Defense (Continued) OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE (CONTINUED) MISCELLANEOUS RETROACTIVE STOP LOSS SPECIAL PAY COMPENSATION § 279.6 Reporting. The Department of Defense shall provide a consolidated report to the congressional defense committees on the implementation of section 310 of Public Law...

New EU ETS Phase 4 rules temporarily puncture waterbed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perino, Grischa

2018-04-01

The new rules of the EU ETS will fundamentally change its character. The long-term cap on emissions will become a function of past and future market outcomes, temporarily puncturing the waterbed and having retroactive impacts on GHG abatement from overlapping policies.

Court Reaffirms TIAA Must Pay Equal Pensions.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fields, Cheryl M.

1984-01-01

A second court decision supporting the payment of equal retirement pensions to men and women through the Teachers Insurance Annuities Association and College Retirement Equities Fund for retirees, effective after May 1, 1980, is discussed. This federal appeals court decision allows limited retroactivity. (MSE)

20 CFR 404.1276 - Reports and payments erroneously made to Internal Revenue Service-transfer of funds-for wages...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... limitations remain on the earnings records. (e) Filing wage reports and paying contributions. Generally, the... regular modification cannot be used (e.g., State law does not permit the retroactive effective date which...

7 CFR 1485.17 - Reimbursement rules.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... to receive the promotional item; (12) The design and production of packaging, labeling or origin...) The design, production, and distribution of coupons for products other than the MAP Participant's... shall document by a salary survey or other means, except for approved supergrades; (4) A retroactive...

19 CFR 10.625 - Refunds of excess customs duties.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

...-Central America-United States Free Trade Agreement Retroactive Preferential Tariff Treatment for Textile... Dominican Republic—Central America—United States Free Trade Agreement Implementation Act, as amended by... 10.625 Customs Duties U.S. CUSTOMS AND BORDER PROTECTION, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY; DEPARTMENT...

Global scale predictability of floods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weerts, Albrecht; Gijsbers, Peter; Sperna Weiland, Frederiek

2016-04-01

Flood (and storm surge) forecasting at the continental and global scale has only become possible in recent years (Emmerton et al., 2016; Verlaan et al., 2015) due to the availability of meteorological forecast, global scale precipitation products and global scale hydrologic and hydrodynamic models. Deltares has setup GLOFFIS a research-oriented multi model operational flood forecasting system based on Delft-FEWS in an open experimental ICT facility called Id-Lab. In GLOFFIS both the W3RA and PCRGLOB-WB model are run in ensemble mode using GEFS and ECMWF-EPS (latency 2 days). GLOFFIS will be used for experiments into predictability of floods (and droughts) and their dependency on initial state estimation, meteorological forcing and the hydrologic model used. Here we present initial results of verification of the ensemble flood forecasts derived with the GLOFFIS system. Emmerton, R., Stephens, L., Pappenberger, F., Pagano, T., Weerts, A., Wood, A. Salamon, P., Brown, J., Hjerdt, N., Donnelly, C., Cloke, H. Continental and Global Scale Flood Forecasting Systems, WIREs Water (accepted), 2016 Verlaan M, De Kleermaeker S, Buckman L. GLOSSIS: Global storm surge forecasting and information system 2015, Australasian Coasts & Ports Conference, 15-18 September 2015,Auckland, New Zealand.

The net benefits of human-ignited wildfire forecasting: the case of Tribal land units in the United States

PubMed Central

Prestemon, Jeffrey P.; Butry, David T.; Thomas, Douglas S.

2017-01-01

Research shows that some categories of human-ignited wildfires might be forecastable, due to their temporal clustering, with the possibility that resources could be pre-deployed to help reduce the incidence of such wildfires. We estimated several kinds of incendiary and other human-ignited wildfire forecast models at the weekly time step for tribal land units in the United States, evaluating their forecast skill out of sample. Analyses show that an Autoregressive Conditional Poisson (ACP) model of both incendiary and non-incendiary human-ignited wildfires is more accurate out of sample compared to alternatives, and the simplest of the ACP models performed the best. Additionally, an ensemble of these and simpler, less analytically intensive approaches performed even better. Wildfire hotspot forecast models using all model types were evaluated in a simulation mode to assess the net benefits of forecasts in the context of law enforcement resource reallocations. Our analyses show that such hotspot tools could yield large positive net benefits for the tribes in terms of suppression expenditures averted for incendiary wildfires but that the hotspot tools were less likely to be beneficial for addressing outbreaks of non-incendiary human-ignited wildfires. PMID:28769549

The net benefits of human-ignited wildfire forecasting: the case of Tribal land units in the United States.

PubMed

Prestemon, Jeffrey P; Butry, David T; Thomas, Douglas S

2016-01-01

Research shows that some categories of human-ignited wildfires might be forecastable, due to their temporal clustering, with the possibility that resources could be pre-deployed to help reduce the incidence of such wildfires. We estimated several kinds of incendiary and other human-ignited wildfire forecast models at the weekly time step for tribal land units in the United States, evaluating their forecast skill out of sample. Analyses show that an Autoregressive Conditional Poisson (ACP) model of both incendiary and non-incendiary human-ignited wildfires is more accurate out of sample compared to alternatives, and the simplest of the ACP models performed the best. Additionally, an ensemble of these and simpler, less analytically intensive approaches performed even better. Wildfire hotspot forecast models using all model types were evaluated in a simulation mode to assess the net benefits of forecasts in the context of law enforcement resource reallocations. Our analyses show that such hotspot tools could yield large positive net benefits for the tribes in terms of suppression expenditures averted for incendiary wildfires but that the hotspot tools were less likely to be beneficial for addressing outbreaks of non-incendiary human-ignited wildfires.

Automatic decomposition of kinetic models of signaling networks minimizing the retroactivity among modules.

PubMed

Saez-Rodriguez, Julio; Gayer, Stefan; Ginkel, Martin; Gilles, Ernst Dieter

2008-08-15

The modularity of biochemical networks in general, and signaling networks in particular, has been extensively studied over the past few years. It has been proposed to be a useful property to analyze signaling networks: by decomposing the network into subsystems, more manageable units are obtained that are easier to analyze. While many powerful algorithms are available to identify modules in protein interaction networks, less attention has been paid to signaling networks de.ned as chemical systems. Such a decomposition would be very useful as most quantitative models are de.ned using the latter, more detailed formalism. Here, we introduce a novel method to decompose biochemical networks into modules so that the bidirectional (retroactive) couplings among the modules are minimized. Our approach adapts a method to detect community structures, and applies it to the so-called retroactivity matrix that characterizes the couplings of the network. Only the structure of the network, e.g. in SBML format, is required. Furthermore, the modularized models can be loaded into ProMoT, a modeling tool which supports modular modeling. This allows visualization of the models, exploiting their modularity and easy generation of models of one or several modules for further analysis. The method is applied to several relevant cases, including an entangled model of the EGF-induced MAPK cascade and a comprehensive model of EGF signaling, demonstrating its ability to uncover meaningful modules. Our approach can thus help to analyze large networks, especially when little a priori knowledge on the structure of the network is available. The decomposition algorithms implemented in MATLAB (Mathworks, Inc.) are freely available upon request. ProMoT is freely available at http://www.mpi-magdeburg.mpg.de/projects/promot. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Validation of Seasonal Forecast of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Das, Sukanta Kumar; Deb, Sanjib Kumar; Kishtawal, C. M.; Pal, Pradip Kumar

2015-06-01

The experimental seasonal forecast of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall during June through September using Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) version 3 has been carried out at the Space Applications Centre Ahmedabad since 2009. The forecasts, based on a number of ensemble members (ten minimum) of CAM, are generated in several phases and updated on regular basis. On completion of 5 years of experimental seasonal forecasts in operational mode, it is required that the overall validation or correctness of the forecast system is quantified and that the scope is assessed for further improvements of the forecast over time, if any. The ensemble model climatology generated by a set of 20 identical CAM simulations is considered as the model control simulation. The performance of the forecast has been evaluated by assuming the control simulation as the model reference. The forecast improvement factor shows positive improvements, with higher values for the recent forecasted years as compared to the control experiment over the Indian landmass. The Taylor diagram representation of the Pearson correlation coefficient (PCC), standard deviation and centered root mean square difference has been used to demonstrate the best PCC, in the order of 0.74-0.79, recorded for the seasonal forecast made during 2013. Further, the bias score of different phases of experiment revealed the fact that the ISM rainfall forecast is affected by overestimation in predicting the low rain-rate (less than 7 mm/day), but by underestimation in the medium and high rain-rate (higher than 11 mm/day). Overall, the analysis shows significant improvement of the ISM forecast over the last 5 years, viz. 2009-2013, due to several important modifications that have been implemented in the forecast system. The validation exercise has also pointed out a number of shortcomings in the forecast system; these will be addressed in the upcoming years of experiments to improve the quality of the ISM prediction.

7 CFR 1485.17 - Reimbursement rules.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... shall document by a salary survey or other means, except for approved supergrades; (4) A retroactive..., machinery, removable fixtures, draperies, blinds, floor coverings, computer hardware and software, and..., including communication costs, except as noted in § 1485.17(c)(22) and except that usage costs for...

26 CFR 1.141-0 - Table of contents.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... long. (3) Fair market value consideration. (4) Disposition proceeds treated as gross proceeds for...) Examples. § 1.141-14 Anti-abuse rules. (a) Authority of Commissioner to reflect substance of transactions... regulations. (e) Permissive retroactive application of certain sections. (f) Effective dates for certain...

26 CFR 1.141-0 - Table of contents.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... long. (3) Fair market value consideration. (4) Disposition proceeds treated as gross proceeds for...) Examples. § 1.141-14 Anti-abuse rules. (a) Authority of Commissioner to reflect substance of transactions... regulations. (e) Permissive retroactive application of certain sections. (f) Effective dates for certain...

26 CFR 1.141-0 - Table of contents.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... long. (3) Fair market value consideration. (4) Disposition proceeds treated as gross proceeds for...) Examples. § 1.141-14 Anti-abuse rules. (a) Authority of Commissioner to reflect substance of transactions... regulations. (e) Permissive retroactive application of certain sections. (f) Effective dates for certain...

26 CFR 1.141-0 - Table of contents.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... long. (3) Fair market value consideration. (4) Disposition proceeds treated as gross proceeds for...) Examples. § 1.141-14 Anti-abuse rules. (a) Authority of Commissioner to reflect substance of transactions... regulations. (e) Permissive retroactive application of certain sections. (f) Effective dates for certain...

24 CFR 888.415 - Restrictions on retroactive payments.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... HUD, will review whether rents were excessive when initially set. (c) Physical condition of projects. If the most recent physical inspection report by the PHA shows significant deficiencies that have not... to all regulations, procedures, or restrictions that apply to Housing Assistance Payments. (b) Review...

5 CFR 511.701 - Effective dates generally.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

...) Except as provided in § 511.703, classification actions may not be made retroactive. (b) Office of Personnel Management's classification decision. (1) The effective date of a classification decision made by... CLASSIFICATION UNDER THE GENERAL SCHEDULE Effective Dates of Position Classification Actions or Decisions § 511...

5 CFR 511.701 - Effective dates generally.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

...) Except as provided in § 511.703, classification actions may not be made retroactive. (b) Office of Personnel Management's classification decision. (1) The effective date of a classification decision made by... CLASSIFICATION UNDER THE GENERAL SCHEDULE Effective Dates of Position Classification Actions or Decisions § 511...

Retroactive Operations: On "Increments" in Mandarin Chinese Conversations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lim, Ni Eng

2014-01-01

Conversation Analysis (CA) has established repair (Schegloff, Jefferson & Sacks 1977; Schegloff 1979; Kitzinger 2013) as a conversational mechanism for managing contingencies of talk-in-interaction. In this dissertation, I look at a particular sort of "repair" termed TCU-continuations (or otherwise known increments in other…

Satellite provided customer promises services, a forecast of potential domestic demand through the year 2000. Volume 4: Sensitivity analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kratochvil, D.; Bowyer, J.; Bhushan, C.; Steinnagel, K.; Kaushal, D.; Al-Kinani, G.

1984-01-01

The overall purpose was to forecast the potential United States domestic telecommunications demand for satellite provided customer promises voice, data and video services through the year 2000, so that this information on service demand would be available to aid in NASA program planning. To accomplish this overall purpose the following objectives were achieved: (1) development of a forecast of the total domestic telecommunications demand; (2) identification of that portion of the telecommunications demand suitable for transmission by satellite systems; (3) identification of that portion of the satellite market addressable by consumer promises service (CPS) systems; (4) identification of that portion of the satellite market addressable by Ka-band CPS system; and (5) postulation of a Ka-band CPS network on a nationwide and local level. The approach employed included the use of a variety of forecasting models, a parametric cost model, a market distribution model and a network optimization model. Forecasts were developed for: 1980, 1990, and 2000; voice, data and video services; terrestrial and satellite delivery modes; and C, Ku and Ka-bands.

Satellite provided customer promises services, a forecast of potential domestic demand through the year 2000. Volume 4: Sensitivity analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kratochvil, D.; Bowyer, J.; Bhushan, C.; Steinnagel, K.; Kaushal, D.; Al-Kinani, G.

1984-03-01

The overall purpose was to forecast the potential United States domestic telecommunications demand for satellite provided customer promises voice, data and video services through the year 2000, so that this information on service demand would be available to aid in NASA program planning. To accomplish this overall purpose the following objectives were achieved: (1) development of a forecast of the total domestic telecommunications demand; (2) identification of that portion of the telecommunications demand suitable for transmission by satellite systems; (3) identification of that portion of the satellite market addressable by consumer promises service (CPS) systems; (4) identification of that portion of the satellite market addressable by Ka-band CPS system; and (5) postulation of a Ka-band CPS network on a nationwide and local level. The approach employed included the use of a variety of forecasting models, a parametric cost model, a market distribution model and a network optimization model. Forecasts were developed for: 1980, 1990, and 2000; voice, data and video services; terrestrial and satellite delivery modes; and C, Ku and Ka-bands.

Probabilistic empirical prediction of seasonal climate: evaluation and potential applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dieppois, B.; Eden, J.; van Oldenborgh, G. J.

2017-12-01

Preparing for episodes with risks of anomalous weather a month to a year ahead is an important challenge for governments, non-governmental organisations, and private companies and is dependent on the availability of reliable forecasts. The majority of operational seasonal forecasts are made using process-based dynamical models, which are complex, computationally challenging and prone to biases. Empirical forecast approaches built on statistical models to represent physical processes offer an alternative to dynamical systems and can provide either a benchmark for comparison or independent supplementary forecasts. Here, we present a new evaluation of an established empirical system used to predict seasonal climate across the globe. Forecasts for surface air temperature, precipitation and sea level pressure are produced by the KNMI Probabilistic Empirical Prediction (K-PREP) system every month and disseminated via the KNMI Climate Explorer (climexp.knmi.nl). K-PREP is based on multiple linear regression and built on physical principles to the fullest extent with predictive information taken from the global CO2-equivalent concentration, large-scale modes of variability in the climate system and regional-scale information. K-PREP seasonal forecasts for the period 1981-2016 will be compared with corresponding dynamically generated forecasts produced by operational forecast systems. While there are many regions of the world where empirical forecast skill is extremely limited, several areas are identified where K-PREP offers comparable skill to dynamical systems. We discuss two key points in the future development and application of the K-PREP system: (a) the potential for K-PREP to provide a more useful basis for reference forecasts than those based on persistence or climatology, and (b) the added value of including K-PREP forecast information in multi-model forecast products, at least for known regions of good skill. We also discuss the potential development of stakeholder-driven applications of the K-PREP system, including empirical forecasts for circumboreal fire activity.

Modes of hurricane activity variability in the eastern Pacific: Implications for the 2016 season

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boucharel, Julien; Jin, Fei-Fei; England, Matthew H.; Lin, I. I.

2016-11-01

A gridded product of accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) in the eastern Pacific is constructed to assess the dominant mode of tropical cyclone (TC) activity variability. Results of an empirical orthogonal function decomposition and regression analysis of environmental variables indicate that the two dominant modes of ACE variability (40% of the total variance) are related to different flavors of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The first mode, more active during the later part of the hurricane season (September-November), is linked to the eastern Pacific El Niño through the delayed oceanic control associated with the recharge-discharge mechanism. The second mode, dominant in the early months of the hurricane season, is related to the central Pacific El Niño mode and the associated changes in atmospheric variability. A multilinear regression forecast model of the dominant principal components of ACE variability is then constructed. The wintertime subsurface state of the eastern equatorial Pacific (characterizing ENSO heat discharge), the east-west tilt of the thermocline (describing ENSO phase transition), the anomalous ocean surface conditions in the TC region in spring (portraying atmospheric changes induced by persistence of local surface anomalies), and the intraseasonal atmospheric variability in the western Pacific are found to be good predictors of TC activity. Results complement NOAA's official forecast by providing additional spatial and temporal information. They indicate a more active 2016 season ( 2 times the ACE mean) with a spatial expansion into the central Pacific associated with the heat discharge from the 2015/2016 El Niño.

A View of Hurricane Katrina with Early 2lSt Century Technology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lin, Xin; Li, J.-L.; Suarez, M. J.; Tompkins, A. M.; Waliser, D. E.; Rienecker, M. M.; Bacmeister, J.; Jiang, J.; Wu, H.-T.; Tassone, C. M.

2006-01-01

Recent advances in space-borne observations and numerical weather prediction models provide new opportunities for improving hurricane forecasts. In this study, state-of-the-art satellite observations are used to document the evolution of one of the most devastating tropical cyclones ever to hit the United States: Hurricane Katrina. The ECMWF and NASA global high-resolution forecasts, the latter being run in experimental mode, are compared with satellite observations, with a focus on precipitation and cloud processes. Future directions on modeling and observations are briefly discussed.

26 CFR 1.1295-3 - Retroactive elections.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... rules require that the shareholder possess reasonable belief as of the election due date that the... reasonable belief that a foreign corporation was not a PFIC. Paragraph (e) of this section prescribes special rules for certain shareholders that are deemed to satisfy the reasonable belief requirement and...

26 CFR 1.148-11 - Effective dates.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... provisions retroactively. (d) Transition rule excepting certain state guarantee funds from the definition of replacement proceeds—(1) Certain perpetual trust funds. A guarantee by a fund created and controlled by a... nonfinancial assets, revenues derived from these assets, gifts, and bequests; (ii) The corpus of the guarantee...

20 CFR 725.608 - Interest.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... simple annual interest, computed from the date on which the benefits were due. The interest shall be... payment of retroactive benefits, the beneficiary shall also be entitled to simple annual interest on such... entitled to simple annual interest computed from the date upon which the beneficiary's right to additional...

5 CFR 847.415 - OASDI coverage.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... 5 Administrative Personnel 2 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false OASDI coverage. 847.415 Section 847.415...) ELECTIONS OF RETIREMENT COVERAGE BY CURRENT AND FORMER EMPLOYEES OF NONAPPROPRIATED FUND INSTRUMENTALITIES Elections of Coverage Under the Retroactive Provisions Elections of Csrs Or Fers Coverage Based on A Move...

5 CFR 847.415 - OASDI coverage.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... 5 Administrative Personnel 2 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false OASDI coverage. 847.415 Section 847.415...) ELECTIONS OF RETIREMENT COVERAGE BY CURRENT AND FORMER EMPLOYEES OF NONAPPROPRIATED FUND INSTRUMENTALITIES Elections of Coverage Under the Retroactive Provisions Elections of Csrs Or Fers Coverage Based on A Move...

5 CFR 847.415 - OASDI coverage.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 5 Administrative Personnel 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false OASDI coverage. 847.415 Section 847.415...) ELECTIONS OF RETIREMENT COVERAGE BY CURRENT AND FORMER EMPLOYEES OF NONAPPROPRIATED FUND INSTRUMENTALITIES Elections of Coverage Under the Retroactive Provisions Elections of Csrs Or Fers Coverage Based on A Move...

42 CFR 431.246 - Corrective action.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... 42 Public Health 4 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Corrective action. 431.246 Section 431.246 Public... Recipients Procedures § 431.246 Corrective action. The agency must promptly make corrective payments, retroactive to the date an incorrect action was taken, and, if appropriate, provide for admission or...

42 CFR 431.246 - Corrective action.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 42 Public Health 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Corrective action. 431.246 Section 431.246 Public... Recipients Procedures § 431.246 Corrective action. The agency must promptly make corrective payments, retroactive to the date an incorrect action was taken, and, if appropriate, provide for admission or...

Computational modes and the Machenauer N.L.N.M.I. of the GLAS 4th order model. [NonLinear Normal Mode Initialization in numerical weather forecasting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Navon, I. M.; Bloom, S.; Takacs, L. L.

1985-01-01

An attempt was made to use the GLAS global 4th order shallow water equations to perform a Machenhauer nonlinear normal mode initialization (NLNMI) for the external vertical mode. A new algorithm was defined for identifying and filtering out computational modes which affect the convergence of the Machenhauer iterative procedure. The computational modes and zonal waves were linearly initialized and gravitational modes were nonlinearly initialized. The Machenhauer NLNMI was insensitive to the absence of high zonal wave numbers. The effects of the Machenhauer scheme were evaluated by performing 24 hr integrations with nondissipative and dissipative explicit time integration models. The NLNMI was found to be inferior to the Rasch (1984) pseudo-secant technique for obtaining convergence when the time scales of nonlinear forcing were much smaller than the time scales expected from the natural frequency of the mode.

Toward Better Intraseasonal and Seasonal Prediction: Verification and Evaluation of the NOGAPS Model Forecasts

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-09-30

Circulation (HC) in terms of the meridional streamfunction. The interannual variability of the Atlantic HC in boreal summer was examined using the EOF...large-scale circulations in the NAVGEM model and the source of predictability for the seasonal variation of the Atlantic TCs. We have been working...EOF analysis of Meridional Circulation (JAS). (a) The leading mode (M1); (b) variance explained by the first 10 modes. 9

Nowcasting and forecasting of the magnetopause and bow shock—A status update

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petrinec, S. M.; Redmon, R. J.; Rastaetter, L.

2017-01-01

There has long been interest in knowing the shape and location of the Earth's magnetopause and of the standing fast-mode bow shock upstream of the Earth's magnetosphere. This quest for knowledge spans both the research and operations arenas. Pertinent to the latter, nowcasting and near-term forecasting are important for determining the extent to which the magnetosphere is compressed or expanded due to the influence of the solar wind bulk plasma and fields and the coupling to other magnetosphere-ionosphere processes with possible effects on assets. This article provides an update to a previous article on the same topic published 15 years earlier, with focus on studies that have been conducted, the current status of nowcasting and forecasting of geophysical boundaries, and future endeavors.

Forecasting Non-Stationary Diarrhea, Acute Respiratory Infection, and Malaria Time-Series in Niono, Mali

PubMed Central

Medina, Daniel C.; Findley, Sally E.; Guindo, Boubacar; Doumbia, Seydou

2007-01-01

Background Much of the developing world, particularly sub-Saharan Africa, exhibits high levels of morbidity and mortality associated with diarrhea, acute respiratory infection, and malaria. With the increasing awareness that the aforementioned infectious diseases impose an enormous burden on developing countries, public health programs therein could benefit from parsimonious general-purpose forecasting methods to enhance infectious disease intervention. Unfortunately, these disease time-series often i) suffer from non-stationarity; ii) exhibit large inter-annual plus seasonal fluctuations; and, iii) require disease-specific tailoring of forecasting methods. Methodology/Principal Findings In this longitudinal retrospective (01/1996–06/2004) investigation, diarrhea, acute respiratory infection of the lower tract, and malaria consultation time-series are fitted with a general-purpose econometric method, namely the multiplicative Holt-Winters, to produce contemporaneous on-line forecasts for the district of Niono, Mali. This method accommodates seasonal, as well as inter-annual, fluctuations and produces reasonably accurate median 2- and 3-month horizon forecasts for these non-stationary time-series, i.e., 92% of the 24 time-series forecasts generated (2 forecast horizons, 3 diseases, and 4 age categories = 24 time-series forecasts) have mean absolute percentage errors circa 25%. Conclusions/Significance The multiplicative Holt-Winters forecasting method: i) performs well across diseases with dramatically distinct transmission modes and hence it is a strong general-purpose forecasting method candidate for non-stationary epidemiological time-series; ii) obliquely captures prior non-linear interactions between climate and the aforementioned disease dynamics thus, obviating the need for more complex disease-specific climate-based parametric forecasting methods in the district of Niono; furthermore, iii) readily decomposes time-series into seasonal components thereby potentially assisting with programming of public health interventions, as well as monitoring of disease dynamics modification. Therefore, these forecasts could improve infectious diseases management in the district of Niono, Mali, and elsewhere in the Sahel. PMID:18030322

Forecasting non-stationary diarrhea, acute respiratory infection, and malaria time-series in Niono, Mali.

PubMed

Medina, Daniel C; Findley, Sally E; Guindo, Boubacar; Doumbia, Seydou

2007-11-21

Much of the developing world, particularly sub-Saharan Africa, exhibits high levels of morbidity and mortality associated with diarrhea, acute respiratory infection, and malaria. With the increasing awareness that the aforementioned infectious diseases impose an enormous burden on developing countries, public health programs therein could benefit from parsimonious general-purpose forecasting methods to enhance infectious disease intervention. Unfortunately, these disease time-series often i) suffer from non-stationarity; ii) exhibit large inter-annual plus seasonal fluctuations; and, iii) require disease-specific tailoring of forecasting methods. In this longitudinal retrospective (01/1996-06/2004) investigation, diarrhea, acute respiratory infection of the lower tract, and malaria consultation time-series are fitted with a general-purpose econometric method, namely the multiplicative Holt-Winters, to produce contemporaneous on-line forecasts for the district of Niono, Mali. This method accommodates seasonal, as well as inter-annual, fluctuations and produces reasonably accurate median 2- and 3-month horizon forecasts for these non-stationary time-series, i.e., 92% of the 24 time-series forecasts generated (2 forecast horizons, 3 diseases, and 4 age categories = 24 time-series forecasts) have mean absolute percentage errors circa 25%. The multiplicative Holt-Winters forecasting method: i) performs well across diseases with dramatically distinct transmission modes and hence it is a strong general-purpose forecasting method candidate for non-stationary epidemiological time-series; ii) obliquely captures prior non-linear interactions between climate and the aforementioned disease dynamics thus, obviating the need for more complex disease-specific climate-based parametric forecasting methods in the district of Niono; furthermore, iii) readily decomposes time-series into seasonal components thereby potentially assisting with programming of public health interventions, as well as monitoring of disease dynamics modification. Therefore, these forecasts could improve infectious diseases management in the district of Niono, Mali, and elsewhere in the Sahel.

Daily Reservoir Inflow Forecasting using Deep Learning with Downscaled Multi-General Circulation Models (GCMs) Platform

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, D.; Fang, N. Z.

2017-12-01

Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex (DFW) has a population of over 7 million depending on many water supply reservoirs. The reservoir inflow plays a vital role in water supply decision making process and long-term strategic planning for the region. This paper demonstrates a method of utilizing deep learning algorithms and multi-general circulation model (GCM) platform to forecast reservoir inflow for three reservoirs within the DFW: Eagle Mountain Lake, Lake Benbrook and Lake Arlington. Ensemble empirical mode decomposition was firstly employed to extract the features, which were then represented by the deep belief networks (DBNs). The first 75 years of the historical data (1940 -2015) were used to train the model, while the last 2 years of the data (2016-2017) were used for the model validation. The weights of each DBN gained from the training process were then applied to establish a neural network (NN) that was able to forecast reservoir inflow. Feature predictors used for the forecasting model were generated from weather forecast results of the downscaled multi-GCM platform for the North Texas region. By comparing root mean square error (RMSE) and mean bias error (MBE) with the observed data, the authors found that the deep learning with downscaled multi-GCM platform is an effective approach in the reservoir inflow forecasting.

Decadal predictability of river discharge with climate oscillations over the 20th and early 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wanders, Niko; Wada, Yoshihide

2015-12-01

Long-term hydrological forecasts are important to increase our resilience and preparedness to extreme hydrological events. The skill in these forecasts is still limited due to large uncertainties inherent in hydrological models and poor predictability of long-term meteorological conditions. Here we show that strong (lagged) correlations exist between four different major climate oscillation modes and modeled and observed discharge anomalies over a 100 year period. The strongest correlations are found between the El Niño-Southern Oscillation signal and river discharge anomalies all year round, while North Atlantic Oscillation and Antarctic Oscillation time series are strongly correlated with winter discharge anomalies. The correlation signal is significant for periods up to 5 years for some regions, indicating a high added value of this information for long-term hydrological forecasting. The results suggest that long-term hydrological forecasting could be significantly improved by including the climate oscillation signals and thus improve our preparedness for hydrological extremes in the near future.

78 FR 16726 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; International Securities Exchange, LLC; Notice of Filing of...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-03-18

... Price, Managing Director, Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association, dated October 4, 2012... other industry professionals will have difficulty pricing options during Limit States and Straddle... conditions have changed and (ii) gaming the obvious error rule to retroactively adjust market maker quotes by...

5 CFR 870.505 - Optional insurance: Waiver/cancellation of insurance.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... § 870.505 Optional insurance: Waiver/cancellation of insurance. (a) An insured individual may cancel...: an individual who has assigned his/her insurance under subpart I of this part cannot cancel Option A... is cancelled because there are no eligible family members, the effective date is retroactive to the...

26 CFR 1.1295-3 - Retroactive elections.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... termination of a pass through entity or pass through entity's business. The complete termination of a pass...'s trade or business, will not terminate a waiver that applies to a partner, shareholder, or... entity or the entity's trade or business. (ii) Terms of waiver—(A) Scope of waiver. The waiver of the...

14 CFR 23.2 - Special retroactive requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... airplane for entry into the United States must provide a safety belt and shoulder harness for each forward- or aft-facing seat which will protect the occupant from serious head injury when subjected to the... safety belt and shoulder harness installed. (b) Each shoulder harness installed at a flight crewmember...

14 CFR 23.2 - Special retroactive requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... airplane for entry into the United States must provide a safety belt and shoulder harness for each forward- or aft-facing seat which will protect the occupant from serious head injury when subjected to the... safety belt and shoulder harness installed. (b) Each shoulder harness installed at a flight crewmember...

14 CFR 23.2 - Special retroactive requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... airplane for entry into the United States must provide a safety belt and shoulder harness for each forward- or aft-facing seat which will protect the occupant from serious head injury when subjected to the... safety belt and shoulder harness installed. (b) Each shoulder harness installed at a flight crewmember...

14 CFR 23.2 - Special retroactive requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... airplane for entry into the United States must provide a safety belt and shoulder harness for each forward- or aft-facing seat which will protect the occupant from serious head injury when subjected to the... safety belt and shoulder harness installed. (b) Each shoulder harness installed at a flight crewmember...

14 CFR 23.2 - Special retroactive requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... airplane for entry into the United States must provide a safety belt and shoulder harness for each forward- or aft-facing seat which will protect the occupant from serious head injury when subjected to the... safety belt and shoulder harness installed. (b) Each shoulder harness installed at a flight crewmember...

28 CFR 545.26 - Performance pay provisions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... month that the inmate was working. Performance pay may not be awarded retroactively. (d) An inmate is... 28 Judicial Administration 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Performance pay provisions. 545.26... WORK AND COMPENSATION Inmate Work and Performance Pay Program § 545.26 Performance pay provisions. (a...

26 CFR 509.102 - Applicable provisions of law.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... 26 Internal Revenue 19 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Applicable provisions of law. 509.102 Section... UNDER TAX CONVENTIONS SWITZERLAND General Income Tax § 509.102 Applicable provisions of law. (a) General... reason of any alteration of law in relation to internal revenue. (b) Retroactivity of regulations or...

Cap check helps reconcile payments with eligibility lists to improve cash flow.

PubMed

2003-05-01

Some capitated provider groups are becoming more adept at using software solutions to effectively manage retroactive deletions, additions and changes in membership enrollment. While a variety of software programs are available, several sources recommend using Cap Check to help match up eligibility lists with capitation payment.

5 CFR 847.703 - Reductions in annuity.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 5 Administrative Personnel 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Reductions in annuity. 847.703 Section... INSTRUMENTALITIES Computation of Benefits Under the Retroactive Provisions § 847.703 Reductions in annuity. The CSRS or FERS basic annuity of an employee or survivor who has elected retirement coverage under subpart D...

5 CFR 880.204 - Restoration of annuity.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 5 Administrative Personnel 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Restoration of annuity. 880.204 Section... Restoration of annuity. (a) If the missing annuitant's whereabouts are determined, and he or she is alive and— (1) Competent, OPM will resume payments to the annuitant and pay retroactive annuity for the period...

26 CFR 1.338(i)-1 - Effective/applicability date.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

....338-11 apply to qualified stock purchases occurring on or after April 10, 2006. (2) New target election for retroactive application—(i) Availability of election. New target may make an irrevocable..., 2006 for which a section 338 election is made, provided that new target's first taxable year and all...

26 CFR 1.338(i)-1 - Effective/applicability date.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

....338-11 apply to qualified stock purchases occurring on or after April 10, 2006. (2) New target election for retroactive application—(i) Availability of election. New target may make an irrevocable..., 2006 for which a section 338 election is made, provided that new target's first taxable year and all...

Outcomes of a College Wilderness Orientation Program

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lien, Matt; Goldenberg, Marni

2012-01-01

Wilderness orientation programs have been utilized by colleges and universities in the United States for nearly 75 years. This study, using means-end theory, reveals the outcomes of a wilderness orientation program for incoming students. A retroactive study was conducted for all participants who had taken part in a wilderness orientation program…

7 CFR 1485.16 - Reimbursement rules.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... the limitation that CCC will not reimburse more than $1.00 per item; (11) The design and production of... the MAP participant shall document by a salary survey or other means. (4) A retroactive salary... participants for MAP activities or for travel of non-MAP participant personnel; (16) Market research; (17...

5 CFR 847.602 - Present value factors.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 5 Administrative Personnel 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Present value factors. 847.602 Section... INSTRUMENTALITIES Additional Employee Costs Under the Retroactive Provisions § 847.602 Present value factors. (a... present value factors for all CSRS annuities; (2) One table of present value factors for FERS annuities...

42 CFR 413.64 - Payments to providers: Specific rules.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... retroactive adjustment. (g) Accelerated payments to providers. Upon request, an accelerated payment may be... as a percentage of the net reimbursement for unbilled or unpaid covered services. Recovery of the accelerated payment may be made by recoupment as provider bills are processed or by direct payment. (h...

42 CFR 413.64 - Payments to providers: Specific rules.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... retroactive adjustment. (g) Accelerated payments to providers. Upon request, an accelerated payment may be... as a percentage of the net reimbursement for unbilled or unpaid covered services. Recovery of the accelerated payment may be made by recoupment as provider bills are processed or by direct payment. (h...

42 CFR 413.64 - Payments to providers: Specific rules.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... retroactive adjustment. (g) Accelerated payments to providers. Upon request, an accelerated payment may be... as a percentage of the net reimbursement for unbilled or unpaid covered services. Recovery of the accelerated payment may be made by recoupment as provider bills are processed or by direct payment. (h...

26 CFR 1.411(a)-4 - Forfeitures, suspensions, etc.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... account benefits which are provided under the Social Security Act or under any other Federal or State law... retroactive effect in accordance with such section. (4) Other forfeiture rules—(i) Withdrawal of mandatory contributions. For rules allowing forfeitures on account of the withdrawal of mandatory contributions, see § 1...

Modeling Trip Duration for Mobile Source Emissions Forecasting

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2000-08-01

The distribution of the duration of trips in a metropolitan area is an important input to estimating area-wide running loss emissions, operating mode fractions and vehicle miles of travel (VMT) accumulated on local roads in the region. In the current...

How vulnerable is Texas’ freight infrastructure to extreme weather events? Final report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-03-01

The Texas Freight Mobility Plan forecasts significant increases in freight volumes across all transportation modes over the next three decades. An increased frequency of extreme weather events such as prolonged droughts and flash flooding is also exp...

Development of weekend travel demand and mode choice models : final report, June 2009.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-06-30

Travel demand models are widely used for forecasting and analyzing policies for automobile and transit travel. However, these models are typically developed for average weekday travel when regular activities are routine. The weekday models focus prim...

Operational skill assessment of the IBI-MFC Ocean Forecasting System within the frame of the CMEMS.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lorente Jimenez, Pablo; Garcia-Sotillo, Marcos; Amo-Balandron, Arancha; Aznar Lecocq, Roland; Perez Gomez, Begoña; Levier, Bruno; Alvarez-Fanjul, Enrique

2016-04-01

Since operational ocean forecasting systems (OOFSs) are increasingly used as tools to support high-stakes decision-making for coastal management, a rigorous skill assessment of model performance becomes essential. In this context, the IBI-MFC (Iberia-Biscay-Ireland Monitoring & Forecasting Centre) has been providing daily ocean model estimates and forecasts for the IBI regional seas since 2011, first in the frame of MyOcean projects and later as part of the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS). A comprehensive web validation tool named NARVAL (North Atlantic Regional VALidation) has been developed to routinely monitor IBI performance and to evaluate model's veracity and prognostic capabilities. Three-dimensional comparisons are carried out on a different time basis ('online mode' - daily verifications - and 'delayed mode' - for longer time periods -) using a broad variety of in-situ (buoys, tide-gauges, ARGO-floats, drifters and gliders) and remote-sensing (satellite and HF radars) observational sources as reference fields to validate against the NEMO model solution. Product quality indicators and meaningful skill metrics are automatically computed not only averaged over the entire IBI domain but also over specific sub-regions of particular interest from a user perspective (i.e. coastal or shelf areas) in order to determine IBI spatial and temporal uncertainty levels. A complementary aspect of NARVAL web tool is the intercomparison of different CMEMS forecast model solutions in overlapping areas. Noticeable efforts are in progress in order to quantitatively assess the quality and consistency of nested system outputs by setting up specific intercomparison exercises on different temporal and spatial scales, encompassing global configurations (CMEMS Global system), regional applications (NWS and MED ones) and local high-resolution coastal models (i.e. the PdE SAMPA system in the Gibraltar Strait). NARVAL constitutes a powerful approach to increase our knowledge on the IBI-MFC forecast system and aids us to inform CMEMS end users about the provided ocean forecasting products' confidence level by routinely delivering QUality Information Documents (QUIDs). It allows the detection of strengths and weaknesses in the modeling of several key physical processes and the understanding of potential sources of discrepancies in IBI predictions. Once the numerical model shortcomings are identified, potential improvements can be achieved thanks to reliable upgrades, making evolve IBI OOFS towards more refined and advanced versions.

NOAA HRD's HEDAS Data Assimilation System's performance for the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sellwood, K.; Aksoy, A.; Vukicevic, T.; Lorsolo, S.

2010-12-01

The Hurricane Ensemble Data Assimilation System (HEDAS) was developed at the Hurricane Research Division (HRD) of NOAA, in conjunction with an experimental version of the Hurricane Weather and Research Forecast model (HWRFx), in an effort to improve the initial representation of the hurricane vortex by utilizing high resolution in-situ data collected during NOAA’s Hurricane Field Program. HEDAS implements the “ensemble square root “ filter of Whitaker and Hamill (2002) using a 30 member ensemble obtained from NOAA/ESRL’s ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) system and the assimilation is performed on a 3-km nest centered on the hurricane vortex. As part of NOAA’s Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP), HEDAS will be run in a semi-operational mode for the first time during the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season and will assimilate airborne Doppler radar winds, dropwindsonde and flight level wind, temperature, pressure and relative humidity, and Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer surface wind observations as they become available. HEDAS has been implemented in an experimental mode for the cases of Hurricane Bill, 2009 and Paloma, 2008 to confirm functionality and determine the optimal configuration of the system. This test case demonstrates the importance of assimilating thermodynamic data in addition to wind observations and the benefit of increasing the quantity and distribution of observations. Applying HEDAS to a larger sample of storm forecasts would provide further insight into the behavior of the model when inner core aircraft observations are assimilated. The main focus of this talk will be to present a summary of HEDAS performance in the HWRFx model for the inaugural season. The HEDAS analyses and the resulting HWRFx forecasts will be compared with HWRFx analyses and forecasts produced concurrently using the HRD modeling group’s vortex initialization which does not employ data assimilation. The initial vortex and subsequent forecasts will be evaluated based on the thermodynamic structure, wind field, track and intensity. Related HEDAS research to be presented by HRD’s data assimilation group include evaluations of the geostrophic wind balance and covariance structures for the Bill experiments, and Observation System Simulation experiments (OSSEs) for the case of hurricane Paloma using both model generated and real observations.

Seasonal drought predictability in Portugal using statistical-dynamical techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ribeiro, A. F. S.; Pires, C. A. L.

2016-08-01

Atmospheric forecasting and predictability are important to promote adaption and mitigation measures in order to minimize drought impacts. This study estimates hybrid (statistical-dynamical) long-range forecasts of the regional drought index SPI (3-months) over homogeneous regions from mainland Portugal, based on forecasts from the UKMO operational forecasting system, with lead-times up to 6 months. ERA-Interim reanalysis data is used for the purpose of building a set of SPI predictors integrating recent past information prior to the forecast launching. Then, the advantage of combining predictors with both dynamical and statistical background in the prediction of drought conditions at different lags is evaluated. A two-step hybridization procedure is performed, in which both forecasted and observed 500 hPa geopotential height fields are subjected to a PCA in order to use forecasted PCs and persistent PCs as predictors. A second hybridization step consists on a statistical/hybrid downscaling to the regional SPI, based on regression techniques, after the pre-selection of the statistically significant predictors. The SPI forecasts and the added value of combining dynamical and statistical methods are evaluated in cross-validation mode, using the R2 and binary event scores. Results are obtained for the four seasons and it was found that winter is the most predictable season, and that most of the predictive power is on the large-scale fields from past observations. The hybridization improves the downscaling based on the forecasted PCs, since they provide complementary information (though modest) beyond that of persistent PCs. These findings provide clues about the predictability of the SPI, particularly in Portugal, and may contribute to the predictability of crops yields and to some guidance on users (such as farmers) decision making process.

Evaluating the Impact of Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) Data On Convective Forecasts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kozlowski, Danielle; Zavodsky, Bradley

2011-01-01

The Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center (SPoRT) is a collaborative partnership between NASA and operational forecasting partners, including a number of National Weather Service (NWS) offices. SPoRT provides real-time NASA products and capabilities to its partners to address specific operational forecast challenges. The mission of SPoRT is to transition observations and research capabilities into operations to help improve short-term weather forecasts on a regional scale. Two areas of focus are data assimilation and modeling, which can to help accomplish SPoRT's programmatic goals of transitioning NASA data to operational users. Forecasting convective weather is one challenge that faces operational forecasters. Current numerical weather prediction (NWP) models that operational forecasters use struggle to properly forecast location, timing, intensity and/or mode of convection. Given the proper atmospheric conditions, convection can lead to severe weather. SPoRT's partners in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have a mission to protect the life and property of American citizens. This mission has been tested as recently as this 2011 severe weather season, which has seen more than 300 fatalities and injuries and total damages exceeding $10 billion. In fact, during the three day period from 25-27 April, 1,265 storms reports (362 tornado reports) were collected making this three day period one of most active in American history. To address the forecast challenge of convective weather, SPoRT produces a real-time NWP model called the SPoRT Weather Research and Forecasting (SPoRT-WRF), which incorporates unique NASA data sets. One of the NASA assets used in this unique model configuration is retrieved profiles from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS).The goal of this project is to determine the impact that these AIRS profiles have on the SPoRT-WRF forecasts by comparing to a current operational model and a control SPoRT-WRF model that does not contain AIRS profiles.

Space Radiation Monitoring Center at SINP MSU

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kalegaev, Vladimir; Barinova, Wera; Barinov, Oleg; Bobrovnikov, Sergey; Dolenko, Sergey; Mukhametdinova, Ludmila; Myagkova, Irina; Nguen, Minh; Panasyuk, Mikhail; Shiroky, Vladimir; Shugay, Julia

2015-04-01

Data on energetic particle fluxes from Russian satellites have been collected in Space monitoring data center at Moscow State University in the near real-time mode. Web-portal http://smdc.sinp.msu.ru/ provides operational information on radiation state of the near-Earth space. Operational data are coming from space missions ELECTRO-L1, Meteor-M2. High-resolution data on energetic electron fluxes from MSU's satellite VERNOV with RELEC instrumentation on board are also available. Specific tools allow the visual representation of the satellite orbit in 3D space simultaneously with particle fluxes variations. Concurrent operational data coming from other spacecraft (ACE, GOES, SDO) and from the Earth's surface (geomagnetic indices) are used to represent geomagnetic and radiation state of near-Earth environment. Internet portal http://swx.sinp.msu.ru provides access to the actual data characterizing the level of solar activity, geomagnetic and radiation conditions in heliosphere and the Earth's magnetosphere in the real-time mode. Operational forecasting services automatically generate alerts on particle fluxes enhancements above the threshold values, both for SEP and relativistic electrons, using data from LEO and GEO orbits. The models of space environment working in autonomous mode are used to generalize the information obtained from different missions for the whole magnetosphere. On-line applications created on the base of these models provide short-term forecasting for SEP particles and relativistic electron fluxes at GEO and LEO, Dst and Kp indices online forecasting up to 1.5 hours ahead. Velocities of high-speed streams in solar wind on the Earth orbit are estimated with advance time of 3-4 days. Visualization system provides representation of experimental and modeling data in 2D and 3D.

The Auditory Verbal Learning Test (Rey AVLT): An Arabic Version

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sharoni, Varda; Natur, Nazeh

2014-01-01

The goals of this study were to adapt the Rey Auditory Verbal Learning Test (AVLT) into Arabic, to compare recall functioning among age groups (6:0 to 17:11), and to compare gender differences on various memory dimensions (immediate and delayed recall, learning rate, recognition, proactive interferences, and retroactive interferences). This…

Framing the Issue: Religion, Secular Ethics and the Case of Animal Rights Mobilization

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mika, Marie

2006-01-01

This article addresses social movement framing, generally, and within contemporary animal rights movements specifically by conducting focus group analyses of a non-activist population. This contrasts with previous studies of recruitment that have examined the conversion process retroactively, culling data from those already involved in a cause. By…

The Loci Mnemonic Technique in Learning and Memory.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Montague, William E.; Carter, John

This study investigated the facilitative effects of the loci system using mental imagery for acquisition and recall within a retroactive inhibition (RI) paradigm. Fifty-five college undergraduates were randomly assigned to five treatment conditions. Four groups formed cells in a 2x2 factorial design which included (1) an RI factor (AB-AD vs.…

5 CFR 847.605 - Methodology for determining the present value of annuity with service credit.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... Retroactive Provisions § 847.605 Methodology for determining the present value of annuity with service credit. (a) OPM will determine the present value of the annuity including service credit for NAFI service..., the present value under paragraph (a) of this section equals the monthly annuity rate including credit...

The Effects of Within-Sequence Acoustic Similarity on the Short-Term Retention of Consonants and Words

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Marcer, D.; And Others

1977-01-01

Compares the rates of forgetting of five-item sequences of acoustically similar and dissimilar consonants and words in the absence of proactive and retroactive interference in order to test whether within sequence similarity rather than stimulus length would have a greater influence on retention. (Author/RK)

24 CFR 888.310 - Notice of eligibility requirements for retroactive payments.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

..., SECTION 202 DIRECT LOAN PROGRAM, SECTION 202 SUPPORTIVE HOUSING FOR THE ELDERLY PROGRAM AND SECTION 811..., Section 202 Elderly or Handicapped, and Special Allocations Projects § 888.310 Notice of eligibility....301 (a) and (b), and documentation of the occupancy rate for the period from October 1, 1979, to May...

24 CFR 888.310 - Notice of eligibility requirements for retroactive payments.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

..., SECTION 202 DIRECT LOAN PROGRAM, SECTION 202 SUPPORTIVE HOUSING FOR THE ELDERLY PROGRAM AND SECTION 811..., Section 202 Elderly or Handicapped, and Special Allocations Projects § 888.310 Notice of eligibility....301 (a) and (b), and documentation of the occupancy rate for the period from October 1, 1979, to May...

40 CFR 141.133 - Compliance requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... specified by § 141.135(c). Systems may begin monitoring to determine whether Step 1 TOC removals can be met... the Step 1 requirements in § 141.135(b)(2) and must therefore apply for alternate minimum TOC removal (Step 2) requirements, is not eligible for retroactive approval of alternate minimum TOC removal (Step 2...

37 CFR 5.25 - Petition for retroactive license.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... invention of a pending application and no petition under § 1.181 has been filed, a final rejection of the..., DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE GENERAL SECRECY OF CERTAIN INVENTIONS AND LICENSES TO EXPORT AND FILE APPLICATIONS IN... be renewed. Failure to renew the petition within the set time period will result in a final denial of...

14 CFR 29.2 - Special retroactive requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... be protected from serious head injury by a safety belt plus a shoulder harness that will prevent the... equipped with a safety belt and shoulder harness that meets the requirements of paragraphs (a), (b), and (c) of this section. (a) Each occupant's seat must have a combined safety belt and shoulder harness with...

14 CFR 29.2 - Special retroactive requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... be protected from serious head injury by a safety belt plus a shoulder harness that will prevent the... equipped with a safety belt and shoulder harness that meets the requirements of paragraphs (a), (b), and (c) of this section. (a) Each occupant's seat must have a combined safety belt and shoulder harness with...

14 CFR 27.2 - Special retroactive requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... occupant must be protected from serious head injury by a safety belt plus a shoulder harness that will... seat is equipped with a safety belt and shoulder harness that meets the requirements of paragraphs (a), (b), and (c) of this section. (1) Each occupant's seat must have a combined safety belt and shoulder...

14 CFR 27.2 - Special retroactive requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... occupant must be protected from serious head injury by a safety belt plus a shoulder harness that will... seat is equipped with a safety belt and shoulder harness that meets the requirements of paragraphs (a), (b), and (c) of this section. (1) Each occupant's seat must have a combined safety belt and shoulder...

14 CFR 29.2 - Special retroactive requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... be protected from serious head injury by a safety belt plus a shoulder harness that will prevent the... equipped with a safety belt and shoulder harness that meets the requirements of paragraphs (a), (b), and (c) of this section. (a) Each occupant's seat must have a combined safety belt and shoulder harness with...

14 CFR 29.2 - Special retroactive requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... be protected from serious head injury by a safety belt plus a shoulder harness that will prevent the... equipped with a safety belt and shoulder harness that meets the requirements of paragraphs (a), (b), and (c) of this section. (a) Each occupant's seat must have a combined safety belt and shoulder harness with...

14 CFR 27.2 - Special retroactive requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... occupant must be protected from serious head injury by a safety belt plus a shoulder harness that will... seat is equipped with a safety belt and shoulder harness that meets the requirements of paragraphs (a), (b), and (c) of this section. (1) Each occupant's seat must have a combined safety belt and shoulder...

14 CFR 27.2 - Special retroactive requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... occupant must be protected from serious head injury by a safety belt plus a shoulder harness that will... seat is equipped with a safety belt and shoulder harness that meets the requirements of paragraphs (a), (b), and (c) of this section. (1) Each occupant's seat must have a combined safety belt and shoulder...

14 CFR 27.2 - Special retroactive requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... occupant must be protected from serious head injury by a safety belt plus a shoulder harness that will... seat is equipped with a safety belt and shoulder harness that meets the requirements of paragraphs (a), (b), and (c) of this section. (1) Each occupant's seat must have a combined safety belt and shoulder...

14 CFR 29.2 - Special retroactive requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... be protected from serious head injury by a safety belt plus a shoulder harness that will prevent the... equipped with a safety belt and shoulder harness that meets the requirements of paragraphs (a), (b), and (c) of this section. (a) Each occupant's seat must have a combined safety belt and shoulder harness with...

Retroactive maintains cuticle integrity by promoting the trafficking of Knickkopf into the procuticle of Tribolium castaneum

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Molting, or the replacement of the old exoskeleton with a new cuticle, is a complex developmental process that all insects must undergo to maintain growth. Our work has uncovered a major pathway involved in cuticular chitin maintenance wherein accumulation of the Tribolium castaneum knickkopf protei...

77 FR 5414 - Fisheries of the Northeastern United States; Summer Flounder Fishery; Quota Transfer

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-02-03

.... 101029427-0609-02] RIN 0648-XA946 Fisheries of the Northeastern United States; Summer Flounder Fishery... of North Carolina is retroactively transferring a portion of its 2011 commercial summer flounder... INFORMATION: Regulations governing the summer flounder fishery are found at 50 CFR part 648. The regulations...

78 FR 9849 - Fisheries of the Northeastern United States; Summer Flounder Fishery; Quota Transfer

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-02-12

.... 111220786-1781-01] RIN 0648-XC451 Fisheries of the Northeastern United States; Summer Flounder Fishery... of North Carolina is retroactively transferring a portion of its 2012 commercial summer flounder... summer flounder fishery are in 50 CFR part 648, and require annual specification of a commercial quota...

26 CFR 1.338(i)-1 - Effective/applicability date.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... target election for retroactive application—(i) Availability of election. New target may make an... 10, 2006 for which a section 338 election is made, provided that new target's first taxable year and... section 338(h)(10) election is made (or a section 338 election for a foreign target), new target may make...

26 CFR 1.338(i)-1 - Effective/applicability date.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... target election for retroactive application—(i) Availability of election. New target may make an... 10, 2006 for which a section 338 election is made, provided that new target's first taxable year and... section 338(h)(10) election is made (or a section 338 election for a foreign target), new target may make...

26 CFR 1.338(i)-1 - Effective/applicability date.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... target election for retroactive application—(i) Availability of election. New target may make an... 10, 2006 for which a section 338 election is made, provided that new target's first taxable year and... section 338(h)(10) election is made (or a section 338 election for a foreign target), new target may make...

5 CFR 847.304 - Time limit.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 5 Administrative Personnel 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Time limit. 847.304 Section 847.304... Procedures for Elections Under the Retroactive Provisions § 847.304 Time limit. (a) Except as provided in paragraph (b) of this section, the time limit for making an election under subpart D of this part is August...

5 CFR 847.304 - Time limit.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... 5 Administrative Personnel 2 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Time limit. 847.304 Section 847.304... Procedures for Elections Under the Retroactive Provisions § 847.304 Time limit. (a) Except as provided in paragraph (b) of this section, the time limit for making an election under subpart D of this part is August...

5 CFR 847.304 - Time limit.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... 5 Administrative Personnel 2 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Time limit. 847.304 Section 847.304... Procedures for Elections Under the Retroactive Provisions § 847.304 Time limit. (a) Except as provided in paragraph (b) of this section, the time limit for making an election under subpart D of this part is August...

The Wender Utah Rating Scale: Adult ADHD Diagnostic Tool or Personality Index?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hill, B.D.; Pella, Russell D.; Singh, Ashvind N.; Jones, Glenn N.; Gouvier, Wm. Drew

2009-01-01

Objective: The Wender Utah Rating Scale (WURS) is used to retroactively assess ADHD symptoms. This study sought to determine whether the WURS actually functions as an index of dysfunctional personality traits. Method: Five hundred twenty-two adult participants completed the WURS and at least one of the following measures: Wechsler Adult…

29 CFR 4.5 - Contract specification of determined minimum wages and fringe benefits.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

...) apply. (3) For purposes of using WDOL databases containing prevailing wage determinations, the date of... stipulations contained in § 4.6 and any applicable wage determination issued by the Administrator or his... any contract subject to section 10 of the Act, the Administrator may require retroactive application...

29 CFR 4.5 - Contract specification of determined minimum wages and fringe benefits.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

...) apply. (3) For purposes of using WDOL databases containing prevailing wage determinations, the date of... stipulations contained in § 4.6 and any applicable wage determination issued by the Administrator or his... any contract subject to section 10 of the Act, the Administrator may require retroactive application...

29 CFR 4.5 - Contract specification of determined minimum wages and fringe benefits.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

...) apply. (3) For purposes of using WDOL databases containing prevailing wage determinations, the date of... stipulations contained in § 4.6 and any applicable wage determination issued by the Administrator or his... any contract subject to section 10 of the Act, the Administrator may require retroactive application...

29 CFR 4.5 - Contract specification of determined minimum wages and fringe benefits.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

...) apply. (3) For purposes of using WDOL databases containing prevailing wage determinations, the date of... stipulations contained in § 4.6 and any applicable wage determination issued by the Administrator or his... any contract subject to section 10 of the Act, the Administrator may require retroactive application...

29 CFR 4.5 - Contract specification of determined minimum wages and fringe benefits.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

...) apply. (3) For purposes of using WDOL databases containing prevailing wage determinations, the date of... stipulations contained in § 4.6 and any applicable wage determination issued by the Administrator or his... any contract subject to section 10 of the Act, the Administrator may require retroactive application...

77 FR 51867 - Cotton Board Rules and Regulations: Adjusting Supplemental Assessment on Imports

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-08-28

... supplemental assessments collected for use by the Cotton Research and Promotion Program. An amendment is..., Chief, Research and Promotion Staff, Cotton and Tobacco Programs, AMS, USDA, 100 Riverside Parkway... not intended to have retroactive effect. The Cotton Research and Promotion Act (7 U.S.C. 2101-2118...

5 CFR 532.705 - Appeal to the Office of Personnel Management.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... that the employee has left the job, except when entitled to retroactive benefits, including benefits... that: (1) New and material evidence is available that was not readily available when the previous... involving a new or unreviewed policy consideration that may have effects beyond the actual case at hand, or...

Forgetting due to retroactive interference: A fusion of Müller and Pilzecker's (1900) early insights into everyday forgetting and recent research on anterograde amnesia

PubMed Central

Dewar, Michaela T.; Cowan, Nelson; Della Sala, Sergio

2008-01-01

Ebbinghaus' seminal work suggested that forgetting occurred as a function of time. However, it raised a number of fundamental theoretical issues that still have not been resolved in the literature. Müller and Pilzecker (1900) addressed some of these issues in a remarkable manner but their observations have been mostly ignored in recent years. Müller and Pilzecker showed that the materials and the task that intervene between presentation and recall may interfere with the to-be-remembered items, and they named this phenomenon “retroactive interference” (RI). They further asked whether there is a type of RI that is based only on distraction, and not on the similarity between the memoranda and the interfering stimuli. Their findings, and our follow up research in healthy volunteers and amnesiacs, confirm that forgetting can be induced by any subsequent mentally effortful interpolated task, irrespective of its content; the interpolated ‘interfering’ material does not have to be similar to the to-be-remembered stimuli. PMID:17715797

Increased sensitivity to proactive and retroactive interference in amnestic mild cognitive impairment: new insights.

PubMed

Hanseeuw, Bernard J; Seron, Xavier; Ivanoiu, Adrian

2012-10-01

Increased sensitivity to proactive (PI) and retroactive (RI) interference has been observed in amnestic mild cognitive impairment (aMCI). PI and RI are often explained as being the result of a response competition mechanism. However, patients with aMCI are supposed to suffer mostly from encoding deficits. We hypothesized that in aMCI interference may occur at encoding and not only at the retrieval stage. We developed an original paradigm enabling PI and RI to be tested with and without response competitors. Eighteen young controls (YC), 16 elderly controls (EC) and 15 aMCI participated in the study. The YC and EC groups presented interference effects only in conditions that included a direct response competitor. In contrast, aMCI had interference effects in all conditions including the one without response competitor. Increased sensitivity to interference in aMCI appears to occur at the encoding/consolidation stage and not only at the retrieval stage, as is the case in healthy subjects. This result is discussed in the context of the associative encoding deficits characterizing aMCI. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Retro-Active Emotion: Do Negative Emotional Stimuli Disrupt Consolidation in Working Memory?

PubMed

Kandemir, Güven; Akyürek, Elkan G; Nieuwenstein, Mark R

2017-01-01

While many studies have shown that a task-irrelevant emotionally arousing stimulus can interfere with the processing of a shortly following target, it remains unclear whether an emotional stimulus can also retro-actively interrupt the ongoing processing of an earlier target. In two experiments, we examined whether the presentation of a negative emotionally arousing picture can disrupt working memory consolidation of a preceding visual target. In both experiments, the effects of negative emotional pictures were compared with the effects of neutral pictures. In Experiment 1, the pictures were entirely task-irrelevant whereas in Experiment 2 the pictures were associated with a 2-alternative forced choice task that required participants to respond to the color of a frame surrounding the pictures. The results showed that the appearance of the pictures did not interfere with target consolidation when the pictures were task-irrelevant, whereas such interference was observed when the pictures were associated with a 2-AFC task. Most importantly, however, the results showed no effects of whether the picture had neutral or emotional content. Implications for further research are discussed.

Towards the construction of a Drought Early Warning System in México

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neri, C.; Magaña, V. O.

2011-12-01

Droughts in Mexico are related to severe impacts in agricultural and livestock activities, water management and with the occurrence of wildfire. Droughts are recurrent, on time scales from years to decades. The impacts however, depend on the vulnerability. The negative impacts may be reduced by studying and monitoring the dynamical evolution of meteorological drought, and by identifying the factors that result in vulnerability, in the context of risk management. Considering the analysis of the vulnerability in the northern of Mexico, a semiarid region highly vulnerable to drought, a Drought Early Warning System was created based on the use of climate information. The first step was to identify the capacity to provide useful climate information to develop prevention actions. Results confirm that the drought in northern Mexico is a well-diagnosed phenomenon from the point of view of impacts in various sectors. However, the use of climate information is still very limited resulting in response to mitigate drought impacts rather than preparing for drought. Part of the problem is the limited capacity to interpret probabilistic forecasts to define actions. Therefore, a key element in a Drought Early Warning System is the development of reliable climate information and the use of indicators to determine of the onset, maximum intensity and duration of the event. The occurrence and severity of drought may be estimated using climate diagnosis and forecast. A preventive response to drought may be defined if the severity and duration surpass a threshold value after which a decision action should be made. In order to establish the relevance of indicators for drought risk management, retroactive analyses have been developed considering the case of northwestern Mexico. After a vulnerability analysis that considers the institutional capacity to make use of climate information, a Drought Early warning System has been designed that considers a number of actions that may be put forward in order to reduce the impacts of such climatic hazard. The potential impact of such system is examined considering a number of actions that may be implemented in the water, agricultural and cattle ranching sectors. We conclude that there are great opportunities to reduce the negative impacts of drought if climate information is used.

Seasonal predictions of equatorial Atlantic SST in a low-resolution CGCM with surface heat flux correction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dippe, Tina; Greatbatch, Richard; Ding, Hui

2016-04-01

The dominant mode of interannual variability in tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) is the Atlantic Niño or Zonal Mode. Akin to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation in the Pacific sector, it is able to impact the climate both of the adjacent equatorial African continent and remote regions. Due to heavy biases in the mean state climate of the equatorial-to-subtropical Atlantic, however, most state-of-the-art coupled global climate models (CGCMs) are unable to realistically simulate equatorial Atlantic variability. In this study, the Kiel Climate Model (KCM) is used to investigate the impact of a simple bias alleviation technique on the predictability of equatorial Atlantic SSTs. Two sets of seasonal forecasting experiments are performed: An experiment using the standard KCM (STD), and an experiment with additional surface heat flux correction (FLX) that efficiently removes the SST bias from simulations. Initial conditions for both experiments are generated by the KCM run in partially coupled mode, a simple assimilation technique that forces the KCM with observed wind stress anomalies and preserves SST as a fully prognostic variable. Seasonal predictions for both sets of experiments are run four times yearly for 1981-2012. Results: Heat flux correction substantially improves the simulated variability in the initialization runs for boreal summer and fall (June-October). In boreal spring (March-May), however, neither the initialization runs of the STD or FLX-experiments are able to capture the observed variability. FLX-predictions show no consistent enhancement of skill relative to the predictions of the STD experiment over the course of the year. The skill of persistence forecasts is hardly beat by either of the two experiments in any season, limiting the usefulness of the few forecasts that show significant skill. However, FLX-forecasts initialized in May recover skill in July and August, the peak season of the Atlantic Niño (anomaly correlation coefficients of about 0.3). Further study is necessary to determine the mechanism that drives this potentially useful recovery.

The Snowmelt-Runoff Model (SRM) user's manual

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Martinec, J.; Rango, A.; Major, E.

1983-01-01

A manual to provide a means by which a user may apply the snowmelt runoff model (SRM) unaided is presented. Model structure, conditions of application, and data requirements, including remote sensing, are described. Guidance is given for determining various model variables and parameters. Possible sources of error are discussed and conversion of snowmelt runoff model (SRM) from the simulation mode to the operational forecasting mode is explained. A computer program is presented for running SRM is easily adaptable to most systems used by water resources agencies.

ExpoCast Framework for Rapid Exposure Forecasts (ISES ExpoDat symposium presentation)

EPA Science Inventory

The U.S. E.P.A. ExpoCast project uses high throughput exposure models (simulation) and any easily-obtained exposure heuristics to generate forward predictions of potential exposures from chemical properties. By comparison with exposures inferred via reverse pharmacokinetic modeli...

High-latitude filtering in a global grid-point model using model normal modes. [Fourier filters for synoptic weather forecasting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Takacs, L. L.; Kalnay, E.; Navon, I. M.

1985-01-01

A normal modes expansion technique is applied to perform high latitude filtering in the GLAS fourth order global shallow water model with orography. The maximum permissible time step in the solution code is controlled by the frequency of the fastest propagating mode, which can be a gravity wave. Numerical methods are defined for filtering the data to identify the number of gravity modes to be included in the computations in order to obtain the appropriate zonal wavenumbers. The performances of the model with and without the filter, and with a time tendency and a prognostic field filter are tested with simulations of the Northern Hemisphere winter. The normal modes expansion technique is shown to leave the Rossby modes intact and permit 3-5 day predictions, a range not possible with the other high-latitude filters.

Standardization of milk infrared spectra for the retroactive application of calibration models.

PubMed

Bonfatti, V; Fleming, A; Koeck, A; Miglior, F

2017-03-01

The objective of this study was to standardize the infrared spectra obtained over time and across 2 milk laboratories of Canada to create a uniform historical database and allow (1) the retroactive application of calibration models for prediction of fine milk composition; and (2) the direct use of spectral information for the development of indicators of animal health and efficiency. Spectral variation across laboratories and over time was inspected by principal components analysis (PCA). Shifts in the PCA scores were detected over time, leading to the definition of different subsets of spectra having homogeneous infrared signal. To evaluate the possibility of using common equations on spectra collected by the 2 instruments and over time, we developed a standardization (STD) method. For each subset of data having homogeneous infrared signal, a total of 99 spectra corresponding to the percentiles of the distribution of the absorbance at each wavenumber were created and used to build the STD matrices. Equations predicting contents of saturated fatty acids, short-chain fatty acids, and C18:0 were created and applied on different subsets of spectra, before and after STD. After STD, bias and root mean squared error of prediction decreased by 66% and 32%, respectively. When calibration equations were applied to the historical nonstandardized database of spectra, shifts in the predictions could be observed over time for all investigated traits. Shifts in the distribution of the predictions over time corresponded to the shifts identified by the inspection of the PCA scores. After STD, shifts in the predicted fatty acid contents were greatly reduced. Standardization reduced spectral variability between instruments and over time, allowing the merging of milk spectra data from different instruments into a common database, the retroactive use of calibrations equations, or the direct use of the spectral data without restrictions. Copyright © 2017 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

On the contribution of motor planning to the retroactive cuing benefit in working memory: Evidence by mu and beta oscillatory activity in the EEG.

PubMed

Schneider, Daniel; Barth, Anna; Wascher, Edmund

2017-11-15

Attention can be allocated toward mental representations in working memory also after the initial encoding of information has been completed. It was shown that focusing on only one item within working memory transfers this representation into a protected state, reducing its susceptibility to interference by incoming signals. The present study investigated the nature of this retroactive cue (retro-cue) benefit by means of oscillatory activity in the EEG. In a working memory task with a retro-cue indicating one, two or three memory representations as relevant and a block-wise distractor display presented after the retro-cue, participants had to remember the orientation of a colored bar. On behavioral level, we found that the interfering effect of the distractor display on memory performance could be prevented when a retro-cue reduced the number of attended representations in working memory. However, only the one-item retro-cue led to an overall increase in task performance compared to a condition without a retro-cue. The neural basis of this special representational status was investigated by means of oscillatory parameters in the EEG and a clustering approach on level of the independent components (ICs) in the signal. The retroactive reduction of attended working memory representations was reflected in a suppression of alpha power over right parietal and parieto-occipital sites. In addition, we found that an IC cluster representing oscillatory activity in the mu/beta range (10-12 Hz and 20-24 Hz) with a source in sensorimotor cortex revealed a power suppression already prior to the memory probe following the one-item retro-cue. This suggests that the retro-cue benefit results in large parts from the possibility to focus attention on one particular item in working memory and initiate motor planning processes already ahead of the probe stimulus indicating the respective response. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Rapid Eye Movement and Non-Rapid Eye Movement Sleep Contributions in Memory Consolidation and Resistance to Retroactive Interference for Verbal Material

PubMed Central

Deliens, Gaétane; Leproult, Rachel; Neu, Daniel; Peigneux, Philippe

2013-01-01

Study Objectives: To test the hypothesis that rapid eye movement (REM) sleep contributes to the consolidation of new memories, whereas non-rapid eye movement (NREM) sleep contributes to the prevention of retroactive interference. Design: Randomized, crossover study. Setting: Two sessions of either a morning nap or wakefulness. Participants: Twenty-five healthy young adults. Interventions: Declarative learning of word pairs followed by a nap or a wake interval, then learning of interfering word pairs and delayed recall of list A. Measurements and Results: After a restricted night (24:00-06:00), participants learned a list of word pairs (list A). They were then required to either take a nap or stay awake during 45 min, after which they learned a second list of word pairs (list B) and then had to recall list A. Fifty percent of word pairs in list B shared the first word with list A, resulting in interference. Ten subjects exhibited REM sleep whereas 13 subjects exhibited NREM stage 3 (N3) sleep. An interference effect was observed in the nap but not in the wake condition. In post-learning naps, N3 sleep was associated with a reduced interference effect, which was not the case for REM sleep. Moreover, participants exhibiting N3 sleep in the post-learning nap condition also showed a reduced interference effect in the wake condition, suggesting a higher protection ability against interference. Conclusion: Our results partly support the hypothesis that non-rapid eye movement sleep contributes in protecting novel memories against interference. However, rapid eye movement sleep-related consolidation is not evidenced. Citation: Deliens G; Leproult R; Neu D; Peigneux P. Rapid eye movement and non-rapid eye movement sleep contributions in memory consolidation and resistance to retroactive interference for verbal material. SLEEP 2013;36(12):1875-1883. PMID:24293762

Space Monitoring Data Center at Moscow State University

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kalegaev, Vladimir; Bobrovnikov, Sergey; Barinova, Vera; Myagkova, Irina; Shugay, Yulia; Barinov, Oleg; Dolenko, Sergey; Mukhametdinova, Ludmila; Shiroky, Vladimir

Space monitoring data center of Moscow State University provides operational information on radiation state of the near-Earth space. Internet portal http://swx.sinp.msu.ru/ gives access to the actual data characterizing the level of solar activity, geomagnetic and radiation conditions in the magnetosphere and heliosphere in the real time mode. Operational data coming from space missions (ACE, GOES, ELECTRO-L1, Meteor-M1) at L1, LEO and GEO and from the Earth’s surface are used to represent geomagnetic and radiation state of near-Earth environment. On-line database of measurements is also maintained to allow quick comparison between current conditions and conditions experienced in the past. The models of space environment working in autonomous mode are used to generalize the information obtained from observations on the whole magnetosphere. Interactive applications and operational forecasting services are created on the base of these models. They automatically generate alerts on particle fluxes enhancements above the threshold values, both for SEP and relativistic electrons using data from LEO orbits. Special forecasting services give short-term forecast of SEP penetration to the Earth magnetosphere at low altitudes, as well as relativistic electron fluxes at GEO. Velocities of recurrent high speed solar wind streams on the Earth orbit are predicted with advance time of 3-4 days on the basis of automatic estimation of the coronal hole areas detected on the images of the Sun received from the SDO satellite. By means of neural network approach, Dst and Kp indices online forecasting 0.5-1.5 hours ahead, depending on solar wind and the interplanetary magnetic field, measured by ACE satellite, is carried out. Visualization system allows representing experimental and modeling data in 2D and 3D.

The added value of stochastic spatial disaggregation for short-term rainfall forecasts currently available in Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gagnon, Patrick; Rousseau, Alain N.; Charron, Dominique; Fortin, Vincent; Audet, René

2017-11-01

Several businesses and industries rely on rainfall forecasts to support their day-to-day operations. To deal with the uncertainty associated with rainfall forecast, some meteorological organisations have developed products, such as ensemble forecasts. However, due to the intensive computational requirements of ensemble forecasts, the spatial resolution remains coarse. For example, Environment and Climate Change Canada's (ECCC) Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS) data is freely available on a 1-degree grid (about 100 km), while those of the so-called High Resolution Deterministic Prediction System (HRDPS) are available on a 2.5-km grid (about 40 times finer). Potential users are then left with the option of using either a high-resolution rainfall forecast without uncertainty estimation and/or an ensemble with a spectrum of plausible rainfall values, but at a coarser spatial scale. The objective of this study was to evaluate the added value of coupling the Gibbs Sampling Disaggregation Model (GSDM) with ECCC products to provide accurate, precise and consistent rainfall estimates at a fine spatial resolution (10-km) within a forecast framework (6-h). For 30, 6-h, rainfall events occurring within a 40,000-km2 area (Québec, Canada), results show that, using 100-km aggregated reference rainfall depths as input, statistics of the rainfall fields generated by GSDM were close to those of the 10-km reference field. However, in forecast mode, GSDM outcomes inherit of the ECCC forecast biases, resulting in a poor performance when GEPS data were used as input, mainly due to the inherent rainfall depth distribution of the latter product. Better performance was achieved when the Regional Deterministic Prediction System (RDPS), available on a 10-km grid and aggregated at 100-km, was used as input to GSDM. Nevertheless, most of the analyzed ensemble forecasts were weakly consistent. Some areas of improvement are identified herein.

A new short-term forecasting model for the total electron content storm time disturbances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsagouri, Ioanna; Koutroumbas, Konstantinos; Elias, Panagiotis

2018-06-01

This paper aims to introduce a new model for the short-term forecast of the vertical Total Electron Content (vTEC). The basic idea of the proposed model lies on the concept of the Solar Wind driven autoregressive model for Ionospheric short-term Forecast (SWIF). In its original version, the model is operationally implemented in the DIAS system (http://dias.space.noa.gr) and provides alerts and warnings for upcoming ionospheric disturbances, as well as single site and regional forecasts of the foF2 critical frequency over Europe up to 24 h in advance. The forecasts are driven by the real time assessment of the solar wind conditions at ACE location. The comparative analysis of the variations in foF2 and vTEC during eleven geomagnetic storm events that occurred in the present solar cycle 24 reveals similarities but also differences in the storm-time response of the two characteristics with respect to the local time and the latitude of the observation point. Since the aforementioned dependences drive the storm-time forecasts of the SWIF model, the results obtained here support the upgrade of the SWIF's modeling technique in forecasting the storm-time vTEC variation from its onset to full development and recovery. According to the proposed approach, the vTEC storm-time response can be forecasted from 1 to 12-13 h before its onset, depending on the local time of the observation point at storm onset at L1. Preliminary results on the assessment of the performance of the proposed model and further considerations on its potential implementation in operational mode are also discussed.

GCM Hindcasts for SST Forced Climate Variability over Agriculturally Intensive Regions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Druyan, Leonard M.; Shah, Kathryn P.; Chandler, Mark A.; Rind, David

1998-01-01

The ability to forecast seasonal climate is of great practical interest. One of the most obvious benefits would be agriculture, for which various preparations (planting, machinery, irrigation, manpower) would be enabled. The expectation of being able to make such forecasts far enough in advance (on the order of 9 months) hinges on components of the system with the longest persistence or predictability. The mixed results of El Nino forecasts has raised the hope that tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SST) fall into this category. For agriculturally-relevant forecasts to be made, and utilized, requires several conditions. The SST in the regions that affect agricultural areas must be forecast successfully, many months in advance. The climate response to such sea surface temperatures must then be ascertained, either through the use of historical empirical studies or models (e.g., GCMS). For practical applications, the agricultural production must be strongly influenced by climate, and farmers on either the local level or through commercial concerns must be able to adjust to using such forecasts. In a continuing series of papers, we will explore each of these components. This article concerns the question of utilizing SST to forecast the climate in several regions of agricultural production. We optimize the possibility of doing so successfully by using observed SST in a hindcast mode (i.e., a perfect forecast), and we also use the globally observed values (rather than just those from the tropical Pacific, for which predictability has been shown). This then is the ideal situation; in subsequent papers we will explore degrading the results by using only tropical Pacific SSTs, and then using only

Examination of simplified travel demand model. [Internal volume forecasting model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Smith, R.L. Jr.; McFarlane, W.J.

1978-01-01

A simplified travel demand model, the Internal Volume Forecasting (IVF) model, proposed by Low in 1972 is evaluated as an alternative to the conventional urban travel demand modeling process. The calibration of the IVF model for a county-level study area in Central Wisconsin results in what appears to be a reasonable model; however, analysis of the structure of the model reveals two primary mis-specifications. Correction of the mis-specifications leads to a simplified gravity model version of the conventional urban travel demand models. Application of the original IVF model to ''forecast'' 1960 traffic volumes based on the model calibrated for 1970more » produces accurate estimates. Shortcut and ad hoc models may appear to provide reasonable results in both the base and horizon years; however, as shown by the IVF mode, such models will not always provide a reliable basis for transportation planning and investment decisions.« less

Reliable before-fabrication forecasting of normal and touch mode MEMS capacitive pressure sensor: modeling and simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jindal, Sumit Kumar; Mahajan, Ankush; Raghuwanshi, Sanjeev Kumar

2017-10-01

An analytical model and numerical simulation for the performance of MEMS capacitive pressure sensors in both normal and touch modes is required for expected behavior of the sensor prior to their fabrication. Obtaining such information should be based on a complete analysis of performance parameters such as deflection of diaphragm, change of capacitance when the diaphragm deflects, and sensitivity of the sensor. In the literature, limited work has been carried out on the above-stated issue; moreover, due to approximation factors of polynomials, a tolerance error cannot be overseen. Reliable before-fabrication forecasting requires exact mathematical calculation of the parameters involved. A second-order polynomial equation is calculated mathematically for key performance parameters of both modes. This eliminates the approximation factor, and an exact result can be studied, maintaining high accuracy. The elimination of approximation factors and an approach of exact results are based on a new design parameter (δ) that we propose. The design parameter gives an initial hint to the designers on how the sensor will behave once it is fabricated. The complete work is aided by extensive mathematical detailing of all the parameters involved. Next, we verified our claims using MATLAB® simulation. Since MATLAB® effectively provides the simulation theory for the design approach, more complicated finite element method is not used.

29 CFR 825.212 - Employee failure to pay health plan premium payments.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... OF LABOR OTHER LAWS THE FAMILY AND MEDICAL LEAVE ACT OF 1993 Employee Leave Entitlements Under the Family and Medical Leave Act § 825.212 Employee failure to pay health plan premium payments. (a)(1) In... unpaid leave that provide for the employer to cease coverage retroactively to the date the unpaid premium...

29 CFR 825.212 - Employee failure to pay health plan premium payments.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... OF LABOR OTHER LAWS THE FAMILY AND MEDICAL LEAVE ACT OF 1993 Employee Leave Entitlements Under the Family and Medical Leave Act § 825.212 Employee failure to pay health plan premium payments. (a)(1) In... unpaid leave that provide for the employer to cease coverage retroactively to the date the unpaid premium...

29 CFR 825.212 - Employee failure to pay health plan premium payments.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... OF LABOR OTHER LAWS THE FAMILY AND MEDICAL LEAVE ACT OF 1993 Employee Leave Entitlements Under the Family and Medical Leave Act § 825.212 Employee failure to pay health plan premium payments. (a)(1) In... unpaid leave that provide for the employer to cease coverage retroactively to the date the unpaid premium...

29 CFR 825.212 - Employee failure to pay health plan premium payments.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... OF LABOR OTHER LAWS THE FAMILY AND MEDICAL LEAVE ACT OF 1993 Employee Leave Entitlements Under the Family and Medical Leave Act § 825.212 Employee failure to pay health plan premium payments. (a)(1) In... unpaid leave that provide for the employer to cease coverage retroactively to the date the unpaid premium...

Japanese Women's Perceptions of Intimate Partner Violence (IPV)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nagae, Miyoko; Dancy, Barbara L.

2010-01-01

Intimate partner violence (IPV) is a problem in Japan. The purpose is to describe IPV as perceived by a purposive sample of 11 Japanese adult females who were in a heterosexual marriage at the time of IPV. We used a cross-sectional, retroactive, qualitative description research design with individual, fact-to-face in depth interviews. At the time…

Learning during the Newborn's First Meal: Special Resistance to Retroactive Interference

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cheslock, Sarah J. Ferdinand; Sanders, Sarah K.; Spear, Norman E.

2004-01-01

At their first postnatal meal, 3-hour-old rats learned an association between an odor and a sweet or bitter taste. Retention after a long interval or after associative interference was compared to that of 1-day-old rats. Despite equivalent and negligible effect of the long retention interval, contrary to infantile amnesia, newborns differed…

20 CFR 667.825 - What special rules apply to reviews of NFJP and WIA INA grant selections?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... current grant cycle. Neither retroactive nor immediately effective selection status may be awarded as... have not been expended by the current grantee through its operation of the grant and its subsequent... the immediately subsequent two-year grant cycle. In such a situation, we will not issue a waiver of...

Associative Interference and Recognition Memory.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Underwood, Benton J.; And Others

Three experiments tested the generality of the conclusion that associative unlearning is minimal in the A-B, A-D paradigm. In Experiment 1, single-trial study of A-D, following single-trial study of A-B, did not produce retroactive inhibition in the recognition of A-B. In Experiment 2, A-B was acquired by associative matching. The interpolated…

Operation JUBILEE: Dieppe 1942 - The Myth of Retro-Active Success

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-03-06

what I was saying even if I did not. I would also like to thank my dogs . As oddly as that sounds, as much as I bemoaned having to take them out...As a matter of fact, many are simple regurgitations of lessons previously learned and apparently forgotten, only to be repackaged and reissued as

77 FR 42276 - Certain Cased Pencils From the People's Republic of China: Initiation and Preliminary Results of...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-07-18

... scope of the order are mechanical pencils, cosmetic pencils, pens, non-cased crayons (wax), pastels... circumference, composed of turned wood encasing one-and-one half inches of sharpened lead on one end and a... Circumstances Review and Determination to Revoke Order in Part, 74 FR 8506 (February 25, 2009) (retroactively...

A Test of the Paired-Associate Analogy to RI in Free Recall.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Perlmutter, Jane; Royer, James M.

To provide a further test of the paired-associate analogy to retroactive inhibition in free recall, this experiment investigated the effect of presenting both original learning (OL) and interpolated learning (IL) in either blocked category (B) or random (R) fashion. IL-OL Similar (S), IL-OL Different (D), and control (C) conditions were included.…

26 CFR 1.197-1T - Certain elections for intangible property (temporary).

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... retroactive election under paragraph (c)(6) of this section, identification of such persons and certification...) Identification of the property affected by the binding contract election, the name and TIN of the person from... purposes of re-applying the rule of this paragraph (c)(1)(ii) to any other taxpayer. (iii) On former...

Reward Retroactively Enhances Memory Consolidation for Related Items

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Patil, Anuya; Murty, Vishnu P.; Dunsmoor, Joseph E.; Phelps, Elizabeth A.; Davachi, Lila

2017-01-01

Reward motivation has been shown to modulate episodic memory processes in order to support future adaptive behavior. However, for a memory system to be truly adaptive, it should enhance memory for rewarded events as well as for neutral events that may seem inconsequential at the time of encoding but can gain importance later. Here, we investigated…

A Mental Practice Superiority Effect: Less Retroactive Interference and More Transfer than Physical Practice

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wohldmann, Erica L.; Healy, Alice F.; Bourne, Lyle E., Jr.

2008-01-01

Two experiments explored the benefits to retention and transfer conferred by mental practice. During familiarization, participants typed 4-digit numbers and took an immediate typing test on both old and new numbers. Participants then typed old 4-digit numbers, either physically or mentally, with either a different response configuration or the…

A global empirical system for probabilistic seasonal climate prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eden, J. M.; van Oldenborgh, G. J.; Hawkins, E.; Suckling, E. B.

2015-12-01

Preparing for episodes with risks of anomalous weather a month to a year ahead is an important challenge for governments, non-governmental organisations, and private companies and is dependent on the availability of reliable forecasts. The majority of operational seasonal forecasts are made using process-based dynamical models, which are complex, computationally challenging and prone to biases. Empirical forecast approaches built on statistical models to represent physical processes offer an alternative to dynamical systems and can provide either a benchmark for comparison or independent supplementary forecasts. Here, we present a simple empirical system based on multiple linear regression for producing probabilistic forecasts of seasonal surface air temperature and precipitation across the globe. The global CO2-equivalent concentration is taken as the primary predictor; subsequent predictors, including large-scale modes of variability in the climate system and local-scale information, are selected on the basis of their physical relationship with the predictand. The focus given to the climate change signal as a source of skill and the probabilistic nature of the forecasts produced constitute a novel approach to global empirical prediction. Hindcasts for the period 1961-2013 are validated against observations using deterministic (correlation of seasonal means) and probabilistic (continuous rank probability skill scores) metrics. Good skill is found in many regions, particularly for surface air temperature and most notably in much of Europe during the spring and summer seasons. For precipitation, skill is generally limited to regions with known El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections. The system is used in a quasi-operational framework to generate empirical seasonal forecasts on a monthly basis.

An empirical system for probabilistic seasonal climate prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eden, Jonathan; van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan; Hawkins, Ed; Suckling, Emma

2016-04-01

Preparing for episodes with risks of anomalous weather a month to a year ahead is an important challenge for governments, non-governmental organisations, and private companies and is dependent on the availability of reliable forecasts. The majority of operational seasonal forecasts are made using process-based dynamical models, which are complex, computationally challenging and prone to biases. Empirical forecast approaches built on statistical models to represent physical processes offer an alternative to dynamical systems and can provide either a benchmark for comparison or independent supplementary forecasts. Here, we present a simple empirical system based on multiple linear regression for producing probabilistic forecasts of seasonal surface air temperature and precipitation across the globe. The global CO2-equivalent concentration is taken as the primary predictor; subsequent predictors, including large-scale modes of variability in the climate system and local-scale information, are selected on the basis of their physical relationship with the predictand. The focus given to the climate change signal as a source of skill and the probabilistic nature of the forecasts produced constitute a novel approach to global empirical prediction. Hindcasts for the period 1961-2013 are validated against observations using deterministic (correlation of seasonal means) and probabilistic (continuous rank probability skill scores) metrics. Good skill is found in many regions, particularly for surface air temperature and most notably in much of Europe during the spring and summer seasons. For precipitation, skill is generally limited to regions with known El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections. The system is used in a quasi-operational framework to generate empirical seasonal forecasts on a monthly basis.

Operational coupled atmosphere - ocean - ice forecast system for the Gulf of St. Lawrence, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faucher, M.; Roy, F.; Desjardins, S.; Fogarty, C.; Pellerin, P.; Ritchie, H.; Denis, B.

2009-09-01

A fully interactive coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice forecasting system for the Gulf of St. Lawrence (GSL) has been running in experimental mode at the Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC) for the last two winter seasons. The goal of this project is to provide more accurate weather and sea ice forecasts over the GSL and adjacent coastal areas by including atmosphere-oceanice interactions in the CMC operational forecast system using a formal coupling strategy between two independent modeling components. The atmospheric component is the Canadian operational GEM model (Côté et al. 1998) and the oceanic component is the ocean-ice model for the Gulf of St. Lawrence developed at the Maurice Lamontagne Institute (IML) (Saucier et al. 2003, 2004). The coupling between those two models is achieved by exchanging surface fluxes and variables through MPI communication. The re-gridding of the variables is done with a package developed at the Recherche en Prevision Numerique centre (RPN, Canada). Coupled atmosphere - ocean - ice forecasts are issued once a day based on 00GMT data. Results for the past two years have demonstrated that the coupled system produces improved forecasts in and around the GSL during all seasons, proving that atmosphere-ocean-ice interactions are indeed important even for short-term Canadian weather forecasts. This has important implications for other coupled modeling and data assimilation partnerships that are in progress involving EC, the Department of Fisheries and Oceans (DFO) and the National Defense (DND). Following this experimental phase, it is anticipated that this GSL system will be the first fully interactive coupled system to be implemented at CMC.

West-WRF Sensitivity to Sea Surface Temperature Boundary Condition in California Precipitation Forecasts of AR Related Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, X.; Cornuelle, B. D.; Martin, A.; Weihs, R. R.; Ralph, M.

2017-12-01

We evaluated the merit in coastal precipitation forecasts by inclusion of high resolution sea surface temperature (SST) from blended satellite and in situ observations as a boundary condition (BC) to the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) mesoscale model through simple perturbation tests. Our sensitivity analyses shows that the limited improvement of watershed scale precipitation forecast is credible. When only SST BC is changed, there is an uncertainty introduced because of artificial model state equilibrium and the nonlinear nature of the WRF model system. With the change of SST on the order of a fraction of a degree centigrade, we found that the part of random perturbation forecast response is saturated after 48 hours when it reaches to the order magnitude of the linear response. It is important to update the SST at a shorter time period, so that the independent excited nonlinear modes can cancel each other. The uncertainty in our SST configuration is quantitatively equivalent to adding to a spatially uncorrelated Guasian noise of zero mean and 0.05 degree of standard deviation to the SST. At this random noise perturbation magnitude, the ensemble average behaves well within a convergent range. It is also found that the sensitivity of forecast changes in response to SST changes. This is measured by the ratio of the spatial variability of mean of the ensemble perturbations over the spatial variability of the corresponding forecast. The ratio is about 10% for surface latent heat flux, 5 % for IWV, and less than 1% for surface pressure.

WRF model for precipitation simulation and its application in real-time flood forecasting in the Jinshajiang River Basin, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Jianzhong; Zhang, Hairong; Zhang, Jianyun; Zeng, Xiaofan; Ye, Lei; Liu, Yi; Tayyab, Muhammad; Chen, Yufan

2017-07-01

An accurate flood forecasting with long lead time can be of great value for flood prevention and utilization. This paper develops a one-way coupled hydro-meteorological modeling system consisting of the mesoscale numerical weather model Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the Chinese Xinanjiang hydrological model to extend flood forecasting lead time in the Jinshajiang River Basin, which is the largest hydropower base in China. Focusing on four typical precipitation events includes: first, the combinations and mode structures of parameterization schemes of WRF suitable for simulating precipitation in the Jinshajiang River Basin were investigated. Then, the Xinanjiang model was established after calibration and validation to make up the hydro-meteorological system. It was found that the selection of the cloud microphysics scheme and boundary layer scheme has a great impact on precipitation simulation, and only a proper combination of the two schemes could yield accurate simulation effects in the Jinshajiang River Basin and the hydro-meteorological system can provide instructive flood forecasts with long lead time. On the whole, the one-way coupled hydro-meteorological model could be used for precipitation simulation and flood prediction in the Jinshajiang River Basin because of its relatively high precision and long lead time.

Using modified fruit fly optimisation algorithm to perform the function test and case studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, Wen-Tsao

2013-06-01

Evolutionary computation is a computing mode established by practically simulating natural evolutionary processes based on the concept of Darwinian Theory, and it is a common research method. The main contribution of this paper was to reinforce the function of searching for the optimised solution using the fruit fly optimization algorithm (FOA), in order to avoid the acquisition of local extremum solutions. The evolutionary computation has grown to include the concepts of animal foraging behaviour and group behaviour. This study discussed three common evolutionary computation methods and compared them with the modified fruit fly optimization algorithm (MFOA). It further investigated the ability of the three mathematical functions in computing extreme values, as well as the algorithm execution speed and the forecast ability of the forecasting model built using the optimised general regression neural network (GRNN) parameters. The findings indicated that there was no obvious difference between particle swarm optimization and the MFOA in regards to the ability to compute extreme values; however, they were both better than the artificial fish swarm algorithm and FOA. In addition, the MFOA performed better than the particle swarm optimization in regards to the algorithm execution speed, and the forecast ability of the forecasting model built using the MFOA's GRNN parameters was better than that of the other three forecasting models.

Long-range prediction of the low-frequency mode in the low-level Indian monsoon circulation with a simple statistical method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Tsing-Chang; Yen, Ming-Cheng; Wu, Kuang-Der; Ng, Thomas

1992-08-01

The time evolution of the Indian monsoon is closely related to locations of the northward migrating monsoon troughs and ridges which can be well depicted with the 30 60day filtered 850-mb streamfunction. Thus, long-range forecasts of the large-scale low-level monsoon can be obtained from those of the filtered 850-mb streamfunction. These long-range forecasts were made in this study in terms of the Auto Regressive (AR) Moving-Average process. The historical series of the AR model were constructed with the 30 60day filtered 850-mb streamfunction [˜ψ (850mb)] time series of 4months. However, the phase of the last low-frequency cycle in the ˜ψ (850mb) time series can be skewed by the bandpass filtering. To reduce this phase skewness, a simple scheme is introduced. With this phase modification of the filtered 850-mb streamfunction, we performed the pilot forecast experiments of three summers with the AR forecast process. The forecast errors in the positions of the northward propagating monsoon troughs and ridges at Day 20 are generally within the range of 12days behind the observed, except in some extreme cases.

The quality and value of seasonal precipitation forecasts for an early warning of large-scale droughts and floods in West Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bliefernicht, Jan; Seidel, Jochen; Salack, Seyni; Waongo, Moussa; Laux, Patrick; Kunstmann, Harald

2017-04-01

Seasonal precipitation forecasts are a crucial source of information for an early warning of hydro-meteorological extremes in West Africa. However, the current seasonal forecasting system used by the West African weather services in the framework of the West African Climate Outlook forum (PRESAO) is limited to probabilistic precipitation forecasts of 1-month lead time. To improve this provision, we use an ensemble-based quantile-quantile transformation for bias correction of precipitation forecasts provided by a global seasonal ensemble prediction system, the Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFS2). The statistical technique eliminates systematic differences between global forecasts and observations with the potential to preserve the signal from the model. The technique has also the advantage that it can be easily implemented at national weather services with low capacities. The statistical technique is used to generate probabilistic forecasts of monthly and seasonal precipitation amount and other precipitation indices useful for an early warning of large-scale drought and floods in West Africa. The evaluation of the statistical technique is done using CFS hindcasts (1982 to 2009) in a cross-validation mode to determine the performance of the precipitation forecasts for several lead times focusing on drought and flood events depicted over the Volta and Niger basins. In addition, operational forecasts provided by PRESAO are analyzed from 1998 to 2015. The precipitation forecasts are compared to low-skill reference forecasts generated from gridded observations (i.e. GPCC, CHIRPS) and a novel in-situ gauge database from national observation networks (see Poster EGU2017-10271). The forecasts are evaluated using state-of-the-art verification techniques to determine specific quality attributes of probabilistic forecasts such as reliability, accuracy and skill. In addition, cost-loss approaches are used to determine the value of probabilistic forecasts for multiple users in warning situations. The outcomes of the hindcasts experiment for the Volta basin illustrate that the statistical technique can clearly improve the CFS precipitation forecasts with the potential to provide skillful and valuable early precipitation warnings for large-scale drought and flood situations several months in ahead. In this presentation we give a detailed overview about the ensemble-based quantile-quantile-transformation, its validation and verification and the possibilities of this technique to complement PRESAO. We also highlight the performance of this technique for extremes such as the Sahel drought in the 80ties and in comparison to the various reference data sets (e.g. CFS2, PRESAO, observational data sets) used in this study.

MOSE: A Demonstrator for an Automatic Operational System for the Optical Turbulence Forecast for ESO Sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masciadri, Elena; Lascaux, F.; Turchi, A.; Fini, L.

2017-09-01

"Most of the observations performed with new-generation ground-based telescopes are employing the Service Mode. To optimize the flexible-scheduling of scientific programs and instruments, the optical turbulence (OT) forecast is a must, particularly when observations are supported by adaptive optics (AO) and Interferometry. Reliable OT forecast are crucial to optimize the usage of AO and interferometric facilities which is not possible when using only optical measurements. Numerical techniques are the best placed to achieve such a goal. The MOSE project (MOdeling ESO Sites), co-funded by ESO, aimed at proving the feasibility of the forecast of (1) all the classical atmospheric parameters (such as temperature, wind speed and direction, relative humidity) and (2) the optical turbulence i.e. the CN 2 profiles and all the main integrated astro-climatic parameters derived from the CN 2 (the seeing, the isoplanatic angle, the wavefront coherence time) above the two ESO sites of Cerro Paranal and Cerro Armazones. The proposed technique is based on the use of a non-hydrostatic atmospheric meso-scale model and a dedicated code for the optical turbulence. The final goal of the project aimed at implementing an automatic system for the operational forecasts of the aforementioned parameters to support the astronomical observations above the two sites. MOSE Phase A and B have been completed and a set of dedicated papers have been published on the topic. Model performances have been extensively quantified with several dedicated figures of merit and we proved that our tool is able to provide reliable forecasts of optical turbulence and atmospheric parameters with very satisfactory score of success. This should guarantee us to make a step ahead in the framework of the Service Mode of new generation telescopes. A conceptual design as well as an operational plan of the automatic system has been submitted to ESO as integral part of the feasibility study. We completed a negotiation with ESO for the implementation of the demonstrator of system on March 2016. In this seminar I will review the principles on which the proposed technique is based on; I will briefly review the most important challenges associated to the optical turbulence forecast for ground-based observations, I will summarize the most important results we achieved at conclusion of the feasibility study, how our results open new scenarios for the operation of the most sophisticated AO systems (WFAO), the next steps for the implementation of a demonstrator and plans for the forecast of further parameters. I will conclude showing a few outputs of the operational system we implemented for the LBT in the context of a similar project (ALTA Project). "

An Approach to Quantitative Fiscal Planning. Phase I Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gaylord, Thomas A.

The development of time-series revenue projections for University of Alaska Budget Request Units (BRUs) is described. Fiscal planning modes in higher education are reviewed, along with the attributes of judgmental, time-series, and causal forecasting techniques. The following six submodels comprise the necessary dimensions of the comprehensive…

Projecting crop yield in northern high latitude area.

PubMed

Matsumura, Kanichiro

2014-01-01

Changing climatic conditions on seasonal and longer time scales influence agricultural production. Improvement of soil and fertilizer is a strong factor in agricultural production, but agricultural production is influenced by climate conditions even in highly developed countries. It is valuable if fewer predictors make it possible to conduct future projections. Monthly temperature and precipitation, wintertime 500hPa geopotential height, and the previous year's yield are used as predictors to forecast spring wheat yield in advance. Canadian small agricultural divisions (SAD) are used for analysis. Each SAD is composed of a collection of Canadian Agricultural Regions (CAR) of similar weather and growing conditions. Spring wheat yields in each CAR are forecast from the following variables: (a) the previous year's yield, (b) earlier stages of the growing season's climate conditions and, (c) the previous year's wintertime northern hemisphere 500hPa geopotential height field. Arctic outflow events in the Okanagan Valley in Canada are associated with episodes of extremely low temperatures during wintertime. Principal component analysis (PCA) is applied for wintertime northern hemisphere 500hPa geopotential height anomalies. The spatial PCA mode1 is defined as Arctic Oscillation and it influences prevailing westerlies. The prevailing westerlies meanders and influences climatic conditions. The spatial similarity between wintertime top 5 Arctic outflow event year's composites of 500hPa geopotential height anomalies and mode 3's spatial pattern is found. Mode 3's spatial pattern looks like the Pacific/North American (PNA) pattern which describes the variation of atmospheric circulation pattern over the Pacific Ocean and North America. Climate conditions from April to June, May to July, mode 3's time coefficients, and previous year's yield are used for forecasting spring wheat yield in each SAD. Cross-validation procedure which generates eight sets of models for the eight validation periods is used. To show the reproducing projection between observed and calculated values, the root mean squared error for skill score (RMSE SS) with the persistence model serving as the reference model is used. The persistence model is used as a benchmark. The results show that SADs near USA border show better RMSE SS values and mode 3's time coefficients can be a useful predictor especially for inland province such as Manitoba. Among 27 Canadian Prairie's SADs with perfect yield data, 67% of Alberta's SADs, 86% of Manitoba's SADs, and 77% of Saskatchewan's SADs can get positive skill scores. In each SAD, future yield projection is calculated applying predictors in 2013 for the obtained eight sets of models and eight sets of forecasted values in 2013 are averaged and a near future projection result is obtained. Series of outputs including calculated forecasted yield value in each SAD is provided by smart phone application. A system for providing climatic condition for a point with a permission of Climatic Research Unit - University of East Anglia and for obtaining patent is proposed. There are several patented systems similar to the system proposed in this paper. However, these patents are different in essence. The system proposed in this paper consists of two parts. First part is to estimate equations using time series data. The second part is to acquire and apply latest climatic conditions for obtained equations and calculate future projection. If the procedure is refined and devices are originally developed, series of idea can be patented. For future work, crop index, Hokkaido is also introduced.

FIBER AND INTEGRATED OPTICS: Use of the offset method in an analysis of a non-Gaussian field distribution in single-mode fiber waveguides

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belov, A. V.; Kurkov, Andrei S.; Chikolini, A. V.

1990-08-01

An offset method is modified to allow an analysis of the distribution of fields in a single-mode fiber waveguide without recourse to the Gaussian approximation. A new approximation for the field is obtained for fiber waveguides with a step refractive index profile and a special analysis employing the Hankel transformation is applied to waveguides with a distributed refractive index. The field distributions determined by this method are compared with the corresponding distributions calculated from the refractive index of a preform from which the fibers are drawn. It is shown that these new approaches can be used to determine the dimensions of a mode spot defined in different ways and to forecast the dispersion characteristics of single-mode fiber waveguides.

Studying Climate Response to Forcing by the Nonlinear Dynamical Mode Decomposition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mukhin, Dmitry; Gavrilov, Andrey; Loskutov, Evgeny; Feigin, Alexander

2017-04-01

An analysis of global climate response to external forcing, both anthropogenic (mainly, CO2 and aerosol) and natural (solar and volcanic), is needed for adequate predictions of global climate change. Being complex dynamical system, the climate reacts to external perturbations exciting feedbacks (both positive and negative) making the response non-trivial and poorly predictable. Thus an extraction of internal modes of climate system, investigation of their interaction with external forcings and further modeling and forecast of their dynamics, are all the problems providing the success of climate modeling. In the report the new method for principal mode extraction from climate data is presented. The method is based on the Nonlinear Dynamical Mode (NDM) expansion [1,2], but takes into account a number of external forcings applied to the system. Each NDM is represented by hidden time series governing the observed variability, which, together with external forcing time series, are mapped onto data space. While forcing time series are considered to be known, the hidden unknown signals underlying the internal climate dynamics are extracted from observed data by the suggested method. In particular, it gives us an opportunity to study the evolution of principal system's mode structure in changing external conditions and separate the internal climate variability from trends forced by external perturbations. Furthermore, the modes so obtained can be extrapolated beyond the observational time series, and long-term prognosis of modes' structure including characteristics of interconnections and responses to external perturbations, can be carried out. In this work the method is used for reconstructing and studying the principal modes of climate variability on inter-annual and decadal time scales accounting the external forcings such as anthropogenic emissions, variations of the solar activity and volcanic activity. The structure of the obtained modes as well as their response to external factors, e.g. forecast their change in 21 century under different CO2 emission scenarios, are discussed. [1] Mukhin, D., Gavrilov, A., Feigin, A., Loskutov, E., & Kurths, J. (2015). Principal nonlinear dynamical modes of climate variability. Scientific Reports, 5, 15510. http://doi.org/10.1038/srep15510 [2] Gavrilov, A., Mukhin, D., Loskutov, E., Volodin, E., Feigin, A., & Kurths, J. (2016). Method for reconstructing nonlinear modes with adaptive structure from multidimensional data. Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, 26(12), 123101. http://doi.org/10.1063/1.4968852

Evaluation of multiple hydraulic models in generating design/near-real time flood inundation extents under various geophysical settings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Z.; Rajib, M. A.; Jafarzadegan, K.; Merwade, V.

2015-12-01

Application of land surface/hydrologic models within an operational flood forecasting system can provide probable time of occurrence and magnitude of streamflow at specific locations along a stream. Creating time-varying spatial extent of flood inundation and depth requires the use of a hydraulic or hydrodynamic model. Models differ in representing river geometry and surface roughness which can lead to different output depending on the particular model being used. The result from a single hydraulic model provides just one possible realization of the flood extent without capturing the uncertainty associated with the input or the model parameters. The objective of this study is to compare multiple hydraulic models toward generating ensemble flood inundation extents. Specifically, relative performances of four hydraulic models, including AutoRoute, HEC-RAS, HEC-RAS 2D, and LISFLOOD are evaluated under different geophysical conditions in several locations across the United States. By using streamflow output from the same hydrologic model (SWAT in this case), hydraulic simulations are conducted for three configurations: (i) hindcasting mode by using past observed weather data at daily time scale in which models are being calibrated against USGS streamflow observations, (ii) validation mode using near real-time weather data at sub-daily time scale, and (iii) design mode with extreme streamflow data having specific return periods. Model generated inundation maps for observed flood events both from hindcasting and validation modes are compared with remotely sensed images, whereas the design mode outcomes are compared with corresponding FEMA generated flood hazard maps. The comparisons presented here will give insights on probable model-specific nature of biases and their relative advantages/disadvantages as components of an operational flood forecasting system.

East Asian winter monsoon forecasting schemes based on the NCEP's climate forecast system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, Baoqiang; Fan, Ke; Yang, Hongqing

2017-12-01

The East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) is the major climate system in the Northern Hemisphere during boreal winter. In this study, we developed two schemes to improve the forecasting skill of the interannual variability of the EAWM index (EAWMI) using the interannual increment prediction method, also known as the DY method. First, we found that version 2 of the NCEP's Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) showed higher skill in predicting the EAWMI in DY form than not. So, based on the advantage of the DY method, Scheme-I was obtained by adding the EAWMI DY predicted by CFSv2 to the observed EAWMI in the previous year. This scheme showed higher forecasting skill than CFSv2. Specifically, during 1983-2016, the temporal correlation coefficient between the Scheme-I-predicted and observed EAWMI was 0.47, exceeding the 99% significance level, with the root-mean-square error (RMSE) decreased by 12%. The autumn Arctic sea ice and North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) are two important external forcing factors for the interannual variability of the EAWM. Therefore, a second (hybrid) prediction scheme, Scheme-II, was also developed. This scheme not only involved the EAWMI DY of CFSv2, but also the sea-ice concentration (SIC) observed the previous autumn in the Laptev and East Siberian seas and the temporal coefficients of the third mode of the North Pacific SST in DY form. We found that a negative SIC anomaly in the preceding autumn over the Laptev and the East Siberian seas could lead to a significant enhancement of the Aleutian low and East Asian westerly jet in the following winter. However, the intensity of the winter Siberian high was mainly affected by the third mode of the North Pacific autumn SST. Scheme-I and Scheme-II also showed higher predictive ability for the EAWMI in negative anomaly years compared to CFSv2. More importantly, the improvement in the prediction skill of the EAWMI by the new schemes, especially for Scheme-II, could enhance the forecasting skill of the winter 2-m air temperature (T-2m) in most parts of China, as well as the intensity of the Aleutian low and Siberian high in winter. The new schemes provide a theoretical basis for improving the prediction of winter climate in China.

Real-Time Very High-Resolution Regional 4D Assimilation in Supporting CRYSTAL-FACE Experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Donghai; Minnis, Patrick

2004-01-01

To better understand tropical cirrus cloud physical properties and formation processes with a view toward the successful modeling of the Earth's climate, the CRYSTAL-FACE (Cirrus Regional Study of Tropical Anvils and Cirrus Layers - Florida Area Cirrus Experiment) field experiment took place over southern Florida from 1 July to 29 July 2002. During the entire field campaign, a very high-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) and assimilation system was performed in support of the mission with supercomputing resources provided by NASA Center for Computational Sciences (NCCS). By using NOAA NCEP Eta forecast for boundary conditions and as a first guess for initial conditions assimilated with all available observations, two nested 15/3 km grids are employed over the CRYSTAL-FACE experiment area. The 15-km grid covers the southeast US domain, and is run two times daily for a 36-hour forecast starting at 0000 UTC and 1200 UTC. The nested 3-km grid covering only southern Florida is used for 9-hour and 18-hour forecasts starting at 1500 and 0600 UTC, respectively. The forecasting system provided more accurate and higher spatial and temporal resolution forecasts of 4-D atmospheric fields over the experiment area than available from standard weather forecast models. These forecasts were essential for flight planning during both the afternoon prior to a flight day and the morning of a flight day. The forecasts were used to help decide takeoff times and the most optimal flight areas for accomplishing the mission objectives. See more detailed products on the web site http://asd-www.larc.nasa.gov/mode/crystal. The model/assimilation output gridded data are archived on the NASA Center for Computational Sciences (NCCS) UniTree system in the HDF format at 30-min intervals for real-time forecasts or 5-min intervals for the post-mission case studies. Particularly, the data set includes the 3-D cloud fields (cloud liquid water, rain water, cloud ice, snow and graupe/hail).

Monthly streamflow forecasting in the Rhine basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schick, Simon; Rössler, Ole; Weingartner, Rolf

2017-04-01

Forecasting seasonal streamflow of the Rhine river is of societal relevance as the Rhine is an important water way and water resource in Western Europe. The present study investigates the predictability of monthly mean streamflow at lead times of zero, one, and two months with the focus on potential benefits by the integration of seasonal climate predictions. Specifically, we use seasonal predictions of precipitation and surface air temperature released by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) for a regression analysis. In order to disentangle forecast uncertainty, the 'Reverse Ensemble Streamflow Prediction' framework is adapted here to the context of regression: By using appropriate subsets of predictors the regression model is constrained to either the initial conditions, the meteorological forcing, or both. An operational application is mimicked by equipping the model with the seasonal climate predictions provided by ECMWF. Finally, to mitigate the spatial aggregation of the meteorological fields the model is also applied at the subcatchment scale, and the resulting predictions are combined afterwards. The hindcast experiment is carried out for the period 1982-2011 in cross validation mode at two gauging stations, namely the Rhine at Lobith and Basel. The results show that monthly forecasts are skillful with respect to climatology only at zero lead time. In addition, at zero lead time the integration of seasonal climate predictions decreases the mean absolute error by 5 to 10 percentage compared to forecasts which are solely based on initial conditions. This reduction most likely is induced by the seasonal prediction of precipitation and not air temperature. The study is completed by bench marking the regression model with runoff simulations from ECMWFs seasonal forecast system. By simply using basin averages followed by a linear bias correction, these runoff simulations translate well to monthly streamflow. Though the regression model is only slightly outperformed, we argue that runoff out of the land surface component of seasonal climate forecasting systems is an interesting option when it comes to seasonal streamflow forecasting in large river basins.

Development of the GEM-MACH-FireWork System: An Air Quality Model with On-line Wildfire Emissions within the Canadian Operational Air Quality Forecast System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pavlovic, Radenko; Chen, Jack; Beaulieu, Paul-Andre; Anselmp, David; Gravel, Sylvie; Moran, Mike; Menard, Sylvain; Davignon, Didier

2014-05-01

A wildfire emissions processing system has been developed to incorporate near-real-time emissions from wildfires and large prescribed burns into Environment Canada's real-time GEM-MACH air quality (AQ) forecast system. Since the GEM-MACH forecast domain covers Canada and most of the U.S.A., including Alaska, fire location information is needed for both of these large countries. During AQ model runs, emissions from individual fire sources are injected into elevated model layers based on plume-rise calculations and then transport and chemistry calculations are performed. This "on the fly" approach to the insertion of the fire emissions provides flexibility and efficiency since on-line meteorology is used and computational overhead in emissions pre-processing is reduced. GEM-MACH-FireWork, an experimental wildfire version of GEM-MACH, was run in real-time mode for the summers of 2012 and 2013 in parallel with the normal operational version. 48-hour forecasts were generated every 12 hours (at 00 and 12 UTC). Noticeable improvements in the AQ forecasts for PM2.5 were seen in numerous regions where fire activity was high. Case studies evaluating model performance for specific regions and computed objective scores will be included in this presentation. Using the lessons learned from the last two summers, Environment Canada will continue to work towards the goal of incorporating near-real-time intermittent wildfire emissions into the operational air quality forecast system.

Effects of Context Change upon Retrieval of First and Second-Learned Information in Human Predictive Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rosas, Juan M.; Garcia-Gutierrez, Ana; Callejas-Aguilera, Jose E.

2006-01-01

Two experiments were conducted to evaluate the context switch effect upon retrieval of the information about a cue-outcome relationship in human predictive learning. The results replicated the well-known effect of renewal of the cue-outcome relationship due to a context change after a retroactive interference treatment, as much as the null effect…

Error Detection and Self-Assessment as Mechanisms to Promote Self-Regulation of Learning among Secondary Education Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zamora, Ángela; Suárez, José Manuel; Ardura, Diego

2018-01-01

The authors' objective was to study the role of error detection and retroactive self-regulation as determinants of performance in secondary education students. A total of 198 students participated in the quasiexperimental study, which involved a control group and two experimental groups. This enabled the authors to analyze the effects of both…

26 CFR 1.852-11 - Treatment of certain losses attributable to periods after October 31 of a taxable year.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... be designated retroactively as capital gain dividends. (k) Effective date. (b) Scope—(1) In general... currency loss. (2) Net foreign currency loss. (3) Foreign currency gain or loss. (e) Limitation on capital gain dividends. (1) In general. (2) Amount taken into account in current year. (i) Net capital loss...

26 CFR 1.852-11 - Treatment of certain losses attributable to periods after October 31 of a taxable year.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... be designated retroactively as capital gain dividends. (k) Effective date. (b) Scope—(1) In general... currency loss. (2) Net foreign currency loss. (3) Foreign currency gain or loss. (e) Limitation on capital gain dividends. (1) In general. (2) Amount taken into account in current year. (i) Net capital loss...

26 CFR 1.852-11 - Treatment of certain losses attributable to periods after October 31 of a taxable year.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... be designated retroactively as capital gain dividends. (k) Effective date. (b) Scope—(1) In general... currency loss. (2) Net foreign currency loss. (3) Foreign currency gain or loss. (e) Limitation on capital gain dividends. (1) In general. (2) Amount taken into account in current year. (i) Net capital loss...

26 CFR 1.852-11 - Treatment of certain losses attributable to periods after October 31 of a taxable year.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... retroactively as capital gain dividends. (k) Effective date. (b) Scope—(1) In general. This section prescribes... loss. (2) Net foreign currency loss. (3) Foreign currency gain or loss. (e) Limitation on capital gain...) Limitation on capital gain dividends. (D) Effect on other years. (iv) Earnings and profits. (v) Receipt by...

26 CFR 1.852-11 - Treatment of certain losses attributable to periods after October 31 of a taxable year.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... be designated retroactively as capital gain dividends. (k) Effective date. (b) Scope—(1) In general... currency loss. (2) Net foreign currency loss. (3) Foreign currency gain or loss. (e) Limitation on capital gain dividends. (1) In general. (2) Amount taken into account in current year. (i) Net capital loss...

An Empirical Cumulus Parameterization Scheme for a Global Spectral Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rajendran, K.; Krishnamurti, T. N.; Misra, V.; Tao, W.-K.

2004-01-01

Realistic vertical heating and drying profiles in a cumulus scheme is important for obtaining accurate weather forecasts. A new empirical cumulus parameterization scheme based on a procedure to improve the vertical distribution of heating and moistening over the tropics is developed. The empirical cumulus parameterization scheme (ECPS) utilizes profiles of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) based heating and moistening derived from the European Centre for Medium- Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analysis. A dimension reduction technique through rotated principal component analysis (RPCA) is performed on the vertical profiles of heating (Q1) and drying (Q2) over the convective regions of the tropics, to obtain the dominant modes of variability. Analysis suggests that most of the variance associated with the observed profiles can be explained by retaining the first three modes. The ECPS then applies a statistical approach in which Q1 and Q2 are expressed as a linear combination of the first three dominant principal components which distinctly explain variance in the troposphere as a function of the prevalent large-scale dynamics. The principal component (PC) score which quantifies the contribution of each PC to the corresponding loading profile is estimated through a multiple screening regression method which yields the PC score as a function of the large-scale variables. The profiles of Q1 and Q2 thus obtained are found to match well with the observed profiles. The impact of the ECPS is investigated in a series of short range (1-3 day) prediction experiments using the Florida State University global spectral model (FSUGSM, T126L14). Comparisons between short range ECPS forecasts and those with the modified Kuo scheme show a very marked improvement in the skill in ECPS forecasts. This improvement in the forecast skill with ECPS emphasizes the importance of incorporating realistic vertical distributions of heating and drying in the model cumulus scheme. This also suggests that in the absence of explicit models for convection, the proposed statistical scheme improves the modeling of the vertical distribution of heating and moistening in areas of deep convection.

A Comparison of Long- vs. Short-Term Recall of Substance Use and HIV Risk Behaviors.

PubMed

Janssen, Tim; Braciszewski, Jordan M; Vose-O'Neal, Adam; Stout, Robert L

2017-05-01

The Timeline Follow-back (TLFB) questionnaire has become a pre-eminent tool in substance use and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) risk research, allowing researchers to assess fine-grained changes in risk behavior over long periods. However, data on accuracy of recall over long (12-month) periods are sparse, especially combined data on HIV risk and substance use from post-treatment samples. Studies on the development of substance use and HIV risk stand to benefit from data on the accurate recall of such behavior over longer retroactive spans of time. The present study offers data on the test-retest reliability of current TLFB assessment versus 6- and 12-month delayed TLFB assessment, using a post-treatment sample (n = 50). Long-term reliability of TLFB data on HIV risk was predominantly good to excellent, with 13 of 20 assessed variables in that range. TLFB data on substance use was similar, with 22 of 26 variables resulting in good/excellent reliability. Our findings support the notion that, notable exceptions aside, the TLFB may be effectively used to assess retroactive HIV risk and substance use in periods of 12 months.

Genetic control of cuticle formation during embryonic development of Drosophila melanogaster.

PubMed Central

Ostrowski, Stephen; Dierick, Herman A; Bejsovec, Amy

2002-01-01

The embryonic cuticle of Drosophila melanogaster is deposited by the epidermal epithelium during stage 16 of development. This tough, waterproof layer is essential for maintaining the structural integrity of the larval body. We have characterized mutations in a set of genes required for proper deposition and/or morphogenesis of the cuticle. Zygotic disruption of any one of these genes results in embryonic lethality. Mutant embryos are hyperactive within the eggshell, resulting in a high proportion reversed within the eggshell (the "retroactive" phenotype), and all show poor cuticle integrity when embryos are mechanically devitellinized. This last property results in embryonic cuticle preparations that appear grossly inflated compared to wild-type cuticles (the "blimp" phenotype). We find that one of these genes, krotzkopf verkehrt (kkv), encodes the Drosophila chitin synthase enzyme and that a closely linked gene, knickkopf (knk), encodes a novel protein that shows genetic interaction with the Drosophila E-cadherin, shotgun. We also demonstrate that two other known mutants, grainy head (grh) and retroactive (rtv), show the blimp phenotype when devitellinized, and we describe a new mutation, called zeppelin (zep), that shows the blimp phenotype but does not produce defects in the head cuticle as the other mutations do. PMID:12019232

Developmental differences in the impact of contextual factors on susceptibility to retroactive interference.

PubMed

Levy-Gigi, Einat; Vakil, Eli

2010-01-01

The influence of contextual similarity on children's recognition memory performance was examined using a retroactive interference paradigm. In the study, 9- and 12-year-olds were randomly assigned to one of two contextual conditions. In both conditions, target and interfering information were presented in distinctive contexts by using different modalities (pictures and words, respectively). However, in one condition the test was presented in the same context as the target information (picture-word-picture [PWP] condition), whereas in the other condition the test was presented in the same context as the interfering information (picture-word-word [PWW] condition). Performance in these conditions was compared with performance in a noninterference control condition (picture-word [P-W]). As predicted, overall recognition performance in the PWP condition was significantly better than in the PWW condition. However, whereas in the PWP condition there was no age difference in performance, in the PWW condition the 12-year-old group produced significantly more hits and fewer false alarms than the 9-year-old group. The theoretical implications of the results are discussed in reference to the effortful engagement of developmentally dependent executive control processes.

The Relationship Between Homework Compliance and Therapy Outcomes: An Updated Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Mausbach, Brent T; Moore, Raeanne; Roesch, Scott; Cardenas, Veronica; Patterson, Thomas L

2010-10-01

The current study was an updated meta-analysis of manuscripts since the year 2000 examining the effects of homework compliance on treatment outcome. A total of 23 studies encompassing 2,183 subjects were included. Results indicated a significant relationship between homework compliance and treatment outcome suggesting a small to medium effect (r = .26; 95% CI = .19-.33). Moderator analyses were conducted to determine the differential effect size of homework on treatment outcome by target symptoms (e.g., depression; anxiety), source of homework rating (e.g., client; therapist), timing of homework rating (e.g., retroactive vs. contemporaneous), and type of homework rating (e.g., Likert; total homeworks completed). Results indicated that effect sizes were robust across target symptoms, but differed by source of homework rating, timing of homework rating, and type of homework rating. Specifically, studies utilizing combined client and therapist ratings of compliance had significantly higher mean effect size relative to those using therapist only assessments and those using objective assessments. Further, studies that rated the percentage of homeworks completed had a significantly lower mean effect size compared to studies using Likert ratings, and retroactive assessments had higher effect size than contemporaneous assessments.

The Relationship Between Homework Compliance and Therapy Outcomes: An Updated Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Moore, Raeanne; Roesch, Scott; Cardenas, Veronica; Patterson, Thomas L.

2010-01-01

The current study was an updated meta-analysis of manuscripts since the year 2000 examining the effects of homework compliance on treatment outcome. A total of 23 studies encompassing 2,183 subjects were included. Results indicated a significant relationship between homework compliance and treatment outcome suggesting a small to medium effect (r = .26; 95% CI = .19–.33). Moderator analyses were conducted to determine the differential effect size of homework on treatment outcome by target symptoms (e.g., depression; anxiety), source of homework rating (e.g., client; therapist), timing of homework rating (e.g., retroactive vs. contemporaneous), and type of homework rating (e.g., Likert; total homeworks completed). Results indicated that effect sizes were robust across target symptoms, but differed by source of homework rating, timing of homework rating, and type of homework rating. Specifically, studies utilizing combined client and therapist ratings of compliance had significantly higher mean effect size relative to those using therapist only assessments and those using objective assessments. Further, studies that rated the percentage of homeworks completed had a significantly lower mean effect size compared to studies using Likert ratings, and retroactive assessments had higher effect size than contemporaneous assessments. PMID:20930925

ORNL Resolved Resonance Covariance Generation for ENDF/B-VII.1

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Leal, Luiz C.; Guber, Klaus H.; Wiarda, Dorothea

2012-12-01

Resonance-parameter covariance matrix (RPCM) evaluations in the resolved resonance regionwere done at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) for the chromium isotopes, titanium isotopes, 19F, 58Ni, 60Ni, 35Cl, 37Cl, 39K, 41K, 55Mn, 233U, 235U, 238U, and 239Pu using the computer code SAMMY. The retroactive approach of the code SAMMY was used to generate the RPCMs for 233U. For 235U, the approach used for covariance generation was similar to the retroactive approach with the distinction that real experimental data were used as opposed to data generated from the resonance parameters. RPCMs for 238U and 239Pu were generated together with the resonancemore » parameter evaluations. The RPCMs were then converted in the ENDF format using the FILE32 representation. Alternatively, for computer storage reasons, the FILE32 was converted in the FILE33 cross section covariance matrix (CSCM). Both representations were processed using the computer code PUFF-IV. This paper describes the procedures used to generate the RPCM and CSCM in the resonance region for ENDF/B-VII.1. The impact of data uncertainty in nuclear reactor benchmark calculations is also presented.« less

Retroactive Maintains Cuticle Integrity by Promoting the Trafficking of Knickkopf into the Procuticle of Tribolium castaneum

PubMed Central

Chaudhari, Sujata S.; Arakane, Yasuyuki; Specht, Charles A.; Moussian, Bernard; Kramer, Karl J.; Muthukrishnan, Subbaratnam; Beeman, Richard W.

2013-01-01

Molting, or the replacement of the old exoskeleton with a new cuticle, is a complex developmental process that all insects must undergo to allow unhindered growth and development. Prior to each molt, the developing new cuticle must resist the actions of potent chitinolytic enzymes that degrade the overlying old cuticle. We recently disproved the classical dogma that a physical barrier prevents chitinases from accessing the new cuticle and showed that the chitin-binding protein Knickkopf (Knk) protects the new cuticle from degradation. Here we demonstrate that, in Tribolium castaneum, the protein Retroactive (TcRtv) is an essential mediator of this protective effect of Knk. TcRtv localizes within epidermal cells and specifically confers protection to the new cuticle against chitinases by facilitating the trafficking of TcKnk into the procuticle. Down-regulation of TcRtv resulted in entrapment of TcKnk within the epidermal cells and caused molting defects and lethality in all stages of insect growth, consistent with the loss of TcKnk function. Given the ubiquity of Rtv and Knk orthologs in arthropods, we propose that this mechanism of new cuticle protection is conserved throughout the phylum. PMID:23382702

Retroactive maintains cuticle integrity by promoting the trafficking of Knickkopf into the procuticle of Tribolium castaneum.

PubMed

Chaudhari, Sujata S; Arakane, Yasuyuki; Specht, Charles A; Moussian, Bernard; Kramer, Karl J; Muthukrishnan, Subbaratnam; Beeman, Richard W

2013-01-01

Molting, or the replacement of the old exoskeleton with a new cuticle, is a complex developmental process that all insects must undergo to allow unhindered growth and development. Prior to each molt, the developing new cuticle must resist the actions of potent chitinolytic enzymes that degrade the overlying old cuticle. We recently disproved the classical dogma that a physical barrier prevents chitinases from accessing the new cuticle and showed that the chitin-binding protein Knickkopf (Knk) protects the new cuticle from degradation. Here we demonstrate that, in Tribolium castaneum, the protein Retroactive (TcRtv) is an essential mediator of this protective effect of Knk. TcRtv localizes within epidermal cells and specifically confers protection to the new cuticle against chitinases by facilitating the trafficking of TcKnk into the procuticle. Down-regulation of TcRtv resulted in entrapment of TcKnk within the epidermal cells and caused molting defects and lethality in all stages of insect growth, consistent with the loss of TcKnk function. Given the ubiquity of Rtv and Knk orthologs in arthropods, we propose that this mechanism of new cuticle protection is conserved throughout the phylum.

Predicting East African spring droughts using Pacific and Indian Ocean sea surface temperature indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Funk, C.; Hoell, A.; Shukla, S.; Bladé, I.; Liebmann, B.; Roberts, J. B.; Robertson, F. R.; Husak, G.

2014-12-01

In eastern East Africa (the southern Ethiopia, eastern Kenya and southern Somalia region), poor boreal spring (long wet season) rains in 1999, 2000, 2004, 2007, 2008, 2009, and 2011 contributed to severe food insecurity and high levels of malnutrition. Predicting rainfall deficits in this region on seasonal and decadal time frames can help decision makers implement disaster risk reduction measures while guiding climate-smart adaptation and agricultural development. Building on recent research that links more frequent East African droughts to a stronger Walker circulation, resulting from warming in the Indo-Pacific warm pool and an increased east-to-west sea surface temperature (SST) gradient in the western Pacific, we show that the two dominant modes of East African boreal spring rainfall variability are tied to SST fluctuations in the western central Pacific and central Indian Ocean, respectively. Variations in these two rainfall modes can thus be predicted using two SST indices - the western Pacific gradient (WPG) and central Indian Ocean index (CIO), with our statistical forecasts exhibiting reasonable cross-validated skill (rcv ≈ 0.6). In contrast, the current generation of coupled forecast models show no skill during the long rains. Our SST indices also appear to capture most of the major recent drought events such as 2000, 2009 and 2011. Predictions based on these simple indices can be used to support regional forecasting efforts and land surface data assimilations to help inform early warning and guide climate outlooks.

Stripe rust epidemiological regions, virulence dynamics, pathogen reproduction modes, yield losses, forecasting models, and management in the United States

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Stripe rust of wheat, caused by Puccinia striiformis f. sp. tritici (Pst), is one of the most important diseases in the United States. Epidemiological regions were determined based on epidemic patterns, cropping systems, geographic barriers, weather patterns, and inoculum exchanges. Areas where Ps...

Probabilistic Forecasting of Surface Ozone with a Novel Statistical Approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Balashov, Nikolay V.; Thompson, Anne M.; Young, George S.

2017-01-01

The recent change in the Environmental Protection Agency's surface ozone regulation, lowering the surface ozone daily maximum 8-h average (MDA8) exceedance threshold from 75 to 70 ppbv, poses significant challenges to U.S. air quality (AQ) forecasters responsible for ozone MDA8 forecasts. The forecasters, supplied by only a few AQ model products, end up relying heavily on self-developed tools. To help U.S. AQ forecasters, this study explores a surface ozone MDA8 forecasting tool that is based solely on statistical methods and standard meteorological variables from the numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. The model combines the self-organizing map (SOM), which is a clustering technique, with a step wise weighted quadratic regression using meteorological variables as predictors for ozone MDA8. The SOM method identifies different weather regimes, to distinguish between various modes of ozone variability, and groups them according to similarity. In this way, when a regression is developed for a specific regime, data from the other regimes are also used, with weights that are based on their similarity to this specific regime. This approach, regression in SOM (REGiS), yields a distinct model for each regime taking into account both the training cases for that regime and other similar training cases. To produce probabilistic MDA8 ozone forecasts, REGiS weighs and combines all of the developed regression models on the basis of the weather patterns predicted by an NWP model. REGiS is evaluated over the San Joaquin Valley in California and the northeastern plains of Colorado. The results suggest that the model performs best when trained and adjusted separately for an individual AQ station and its corresponding meteorological site.

Development of On-line Wildfire Emissions for the Operational Canadian Air Quality Forecast System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pavlovic, R.; Menard, S.; Chen, J.; Anselmo, D.; Paul-Andre, B.; Gravel, S.; Moran, M. D.; Davignon, D.

2013-12-01

An emissions processing system has been developed to incorporate near-real-time emissions from wildfires and large prescribed burns into Environment Canada's real-time GEM-MACH air quality (AQ) forecast system. Since the GEM-MACH forecast domain covers Canada and most of the USA, including Alaska, fire location information is needed for both of these large countries. Near-real-time satellite data are obtained and processed separately for the two countries for organizational reasons. Fire location and fuel consumption data for Canada are provided by the Canadian Forest Service's Canadian Wild Fire Information System (CWFIS) while fire location and emissions data for the U.S. are provided by the SMARTFIRE (Satellite Mapping Automated Reanalysis Tool for Fire Incident Reconciliation) system via the on-line BlueSky Gateway. During AQ model runs, emissions from individual fire sources are injected into elevated model layers based on plume-rise calculations and then transport and chemistry calculations are performed. This 'on the fly' approach to the insertion of emissions provides greater flexibility since on-line meteorology is used and reduces computational overhead in emission pre-processing. An experimental wildfire version of GEM-MACH was run in real-time mode for the summers of 2012 and 2013. 48-hour forecasts were generated every 12 hours (at 00 and 12 UTC). Noticeable improvements in the AQ forecasts for PM2.5 were seen in numerous regions where fire activity was high. Case studies evaluating model performance for specific regions, computed objective scores, and subjective evaluations by AQ forecasters will be included in this presentation. Using the lessons learned from the last two summers, Environment Canada will continue to work towards the goal of incorporating near-real-time intermittent wildfire emissions within the operational air quality forecast system.

Sources of information for tsunami forecasting in New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barberopoulou, A.; Ristau, J. P.; D'Anastasio, E.; Wang, X.

2013-12-01

Tsunami science has evolved considerably in the last two decades due to technological advancements which also helped push for better numerical modelling of the tsunami phases (generation to inundation). The deployment of DART buoys has also been a considerable milestone in tsunami forecasting. Tsunami forecasting is one of the parts that tsunami modelling feeds into and is related to response, preparedness and planning. Usually tsunami forecasting refers to short-term forecasting that takes place in real-time after a tsunami has or appears to have been generated. In this report we refer to all types of forecasting (short-term or long-term) related to work in advance of a tsunami impacting a coastline that would help in response, planning or preparedness. We look at the standard types of data (seismic, GPS, water level) that are available in New Zealand for tsunami forecasting, how they are currently being used, other ways to use these data and provide recommendations for better utilisation. The main findings are: -Current investigations of the use of seismic parameters quickly obtained after an earthquake, have potential to provide critical information about the tsunamigenic potential of earthquakes. Further analysis of the most promising methods should be undertaken to determine a path to full implementation. -Network communication of the largest part of the GPS network is not currently at a stage that can provide sufficient data early enough for tsunami warning. It is believed that it has potential, but changes including data transmission improvements may have to happen before real-time processing oriented to tsunami early warning is implemented on the data that is currently provided. -Tide gauge data is currently under-utilised for tsunami forecasting. Spectral analysis, modal analysis based on identified modes and arrival times extracted from the records can be useful in forecasting. -The current study is by no means exhaustive of the ways the different types of data can be used. We are only presenting an overview of what can be done. More extensive studies with each one of the types of data collected by GeoNet and other relevant networks will help improve tsunami forecasting in New Zealand.

Sounds of Failure: Passive Acoustic Measurements of Excited Vibrational Modes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brzinski, Theodore A.; Daniels, Karen E.

2018-05-01

Granular materials can fail through spontaneous events like earthquakes or brittle fracture. However, measurements and analytic models which forecast failure in this class of materials, while of both fundamental and practical interest, remain elusive. Materials including numerical packings of spheres, colloidal glasses, and granular materials have been known to develop an excess of low-frequency vibrational modes as the confining pressure is reduced. Here, we report experiments on sheared granular materials in which we monitor the evolving density of excited modes via passive monitoring of acoustic emissions. We observe a broadening of the distribution of excited modes coincident with both bulk and local plasticity, and evolution in the shape of the distribution before and after bulk failure. These results provide a new interpretation of the changing state of the material on its approach to stick-slip failure.

Sounds of Failure: Passive Acoustic Measurements of Excited Vibrational Modes.

PubMed

Brzinski, Theodore A; Daniels, Karen E

2018-05-25

Granular materials can fail through spontaneous events like earthquakes or brittle fracture. However, measurements and analytic models which forecast failure in this class of materials, while of both fundamental and practical interest, remain elusive. Materials including numerical packings of spheres, colloidal glasses, and granular materials have been known to develop an excess of low-frequency vibrational modes as the confining pressure is reduced. Here, we report experiments on sheared granular materials in which we monitor the evolving density of excited modes via passive monitoring of acoustic emissions. We observe a broadening of the distribution of excited modes coincident with both bulk and local plasticity, and evolution in the shape of the distribution before and after bulk failure. These results provide a new interpretation of the changing state of the material on its approach to stick-slip failure.

Assimilation of the seabird and ship drift data in the north-eastern sea of Japan into an operational ocean nowcast/forecast system

PubMed Central

Miyazawa, Yasumasa; Guo, Xinyu; Varlamov, Sergey M.; Miyama, Toru; Yoda, Ken; Sato, Katsufumi; Kano, Toshiyuki; Sato, Keiji

2015-01-01

At the present time, ocean current is being operationally monitored mainly by combined use of numerical ocean nowcast/forecast models and satellite remote sensing data. Improvement in the accuracy of the ocean current nowcast/forecast requires additional measurements with higher spatial and temporal resolution as expected from the current observation network. Here we show feasibility of assimilating high-resolution seabird and ship drift data into an operational ocean forecast system. Data assimilation of geostrophic current contained in the observed drift leads to refinement in the gyre mode events of the Tsugaru warm current in the north-eastern sea of Japan represented by the model. Fitting the observed drift to the model depends on ability of the drift representing geostrophic current compared to that representing directly wind driven components. A preferable horizontal scale of 50 km indicated for the seabird drift data assimilation implies their capability of capturing eddies with smaller horizontal scale than the minimum scale of 100 km resolved by the satellite altimetry. The present study actually demonstrates that transdisciplinary approaches combining bio-/ship- logging and numerical modeling could be effective for enhancement in monitoring the ocean current. PMID:26633309

Hybrid empirical mode decomposition- ARIMA for forecasting exchange rates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abadan, Siti Sarah; Shabri, Ani; Ismail, Shuhaida

2015-02-01

This paper studied the forecasting of monthly Malaysian Ringgit (MYR)/ United State Dollar (USD) exchange rates using the hybrid of two methods which are the empirical model decomposition (EMD) and the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA). MYR is pegged to USD during the Asian financial crisis causing the exchange rates are fixed to 3.800 from 2nd of September 1998 until 21st of July 2005. Thus, the chosen data in this paper is the post-July 2005 data, starting from August 2005 to July 2010. The comparative study using root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) showed that the EMD-ARIMA outperformed the single-ARIMA and the random walk benchmark model.

Replacing climatological potential evapotranspiration estimates with dynamic satellite-based observations in operational hydrologic prediction models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Franz, K. J.; Bowman, A. L.; Hogue, T. S.; Kim, J.; Spies, R.

2011-12-01

In the face of a changing climate, growing populations, and increased human habitation in hydrologically risky locations, both short- and long-range planners increasingly require robust and reliable streamflow forecast information. Current operational forecasting utilizes watershed-scale, conceptual models driven by ground-based (commonly point-scale) observations of precipitation and temperature and climatological potential evapotranspiration (PET) estimates. The PET values are derived from historic pan evaporation observations and remain static from year-to-year. The need for regional dynamic PET values is vital for improved operational forecasting. With the advent of satellite remote sensing and the adoption of a more flexible operational forecast system by the National Weather Service, incorporation of advanced data products is now more feasible than in years past. In this study, we will test a previously developed satellite-derived PET product (UCLA MODIS-PET) in the National Weather Service forecast models and compare the model results to current methods. The UCLA MODIS-PET method is based on the Priestley-Taylor formulation, is driven with MODIS satellite products, and produces a daily, 250m PET estimate. The focus area is eight headwater basins in the upper Midwest U.S. There is a need to develop improved forecasting methods for this region that are able to account for climatic and landscape changes more readily and effectively than current methods. This region is highly flood prone yet sensitive to prolonged dry periods in late summer and early fall, and is characterized by a highly managed landscape, which has drastically altered the natural hydrologic cycle. Our goal is to improve model simulations, and thereby, the initial conditions prior to the start of a forecast through the use of PET values that better reflect actual watershed conditions. The forecast models are being tested in both distributed and lumped mode.

Convective Mode and Mesoscale Heavy Rainfall Forecast Challenges during a High-Impact Weather Period along the Gulf Coast and Florida from 17-20 May 2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bosart, L. F.; Wallace, B. C.

2017-12-01

Two high-impact convective storm forecast challenges occurred between 17-20 May 2016 during NOAA's Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecast Experiment (SFE) at the Storm Prediction Center. The first forecast challenge was 286 mm of unexpected record-breaking rain that fell on Vero Beach (VRB), Florida, between 1500 UTC 17 May and 0600 UTC 18 May, more than doubling the previous May daily rainfall record. The record rains in VRB occurred subsequent to the formation of a massive MCS over the central Gulf of Mexico between 0900-1000 UTC 17 May. This MCS, linked to the earlier convection associated with an anomalously strong subtropical jet (STJ) over the Gulf of Mexico, moved east-northeastward toward Florida. The second forecast challenge was a large MCS that formed over the Mexican mountains near the Texas-Mexican border, moved eastward and grew upscale prior to 1200 UTC 19 May. This MCS further strengthened offshore after 1800 UTC 19 May beneath the STJ. SPC SFE participants expected this MCS to move east-northeastward and bring heavy rain due to training echoes along the Gulf coast as far eastward as the Florida panhandle. Instead, this MCS transitioned into a bowing MCS that resembled a low-end derecho and produced a 4-6 hPa cold pool with widespread surface wind gusts between 35-50 kt. Both MCS events occurred in a large-scale baroclinic environment along the northern Gulf coast. Both MCS events responded to antecedent convection within this favorable large-scale environment. Rainfall amounts with the first heavy rain-producing MCS were severely underestimated by models and forecasters alike. The second MCS produced the greatest forecaster angst because rainfall totals were forecast too high (MCS propagated too fast) and severe wind reports were much more widespread than anticipated (because of cold pool formation). This presentation will attempt to untangle what happened and why it happened.

Forecasting the prognosis of choroidal melanoma with an artificial neural network.

PubMed

Kaiserman, Igor; Rosner, Mordechai; Pe'er, Jacob

2005-09-01

To develop an artificial neural network (ANN) that will forecast the 5-year mortality from choroidal melanoma. Retrospective, comparative, observational cohort study. One hundred fifty-three eyes of 153 consecutive patients with choroidal melanoma (age, 58.4+/-14.6 years) who were treated with ruthenium 106 brachytherapy between 1988 and 1998 at the Department of Ophthalmology, Hadassah University Hospital, Jerusalem, Israel. Patients were observed clinically and ultrasonographically (A- and B-mode standardized ultrasonography). Metastatic screening included liver function tests and liver imaging. Backpropagation ANNs composed of 3 or 4 layers of neurons with various types of transfer functions and training protocols were assessed for their ability to predict the 5-year mortality. The ANNs were trained on 77 randomly selected patients and tested on a different set of 76 patients. Artificial neural networks were compared based on their sensitivity, specificity, forecasting accuracy, area under the receiver operating curves, and likelihood ratios (LRs). The best ANN was compared with the results of logistic regression and the performance of an ocular oncologist. The ability of the ANNs to forecast the 5-year mortality from choroidal melanoma. Thirty-one patients died during the follow-up period of metastatic choroidal melanoma. The best ANN (one hidden layer of 16 neurons) had 84% forecasting accuracy and an LR of 31.5. The number of hidden neurons significantly influenced the ANNs' performance (P<0.001). The performance of the ANNs was not significantly influenced by the training protocol, the number of hidden layers, or the type of transfer function. In comparison, logistic regression reached 86% forecasting accuracy, with a very low LR (0.8), whereas the human expert forecasting ability was <70% (LR, 1.85). Artificial neural networks can be used for forecasting the prognosis of choroidal melanoma and may support decision-making in treating this malignancy.

PM2.5 forecasting using SVR with PSOGSA algorithm based on CEEMD, GRNN and GCA considering meteorological factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Suling; Lian, Xiuyuan; Wei, Lin; Che, Jinxing; Shen, Xiping; Yang, Ling; Qiu, Xuanlin; Liu, Xiaoning; Gao, Wenlong; Ren, Xiaowei; Li, Juansheng

2018-06-01

The PM2.5 is the culprit of air pollution, and it leads to respiratory system disease when the fine particles are inhaled. Therefore, it is increasingly significant to develop an effective model for PM2.5 forecasting and warnings that informs people to foresee the air quality. People can reduce outdoor activities and take preventive measures if they know the air quality is bad ahead of time. In addition, reliable forecasting results can remind the relevant departments to control and reduce pollutants discharge. According to our knowledge, the current hybrid forecasting techniques of PM2.5 do not take the meteorological factors into consideration. Actually, meteorological factors affect the concentrations of air pollution, but it is unclear whether meteorological factors are helpful for improving the PM2.5 forecasting results or not. This paper proposes a hybrid model called CEEMD-PSOGSA-SVR-GRNN, based on complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition (CEEMD), particle swarm optimization and gravitational search algorithm (PSOGSA), support vector regression (SVR), generalized regression neural network (GRNN) and grey correlation analysis (GCA), for the daily PM2.5 concentrations forecasting. The main steps of proposed model are described as follows: the original PM2.5 data decomposition with CEEMD, optimal SVR selection with PSOGCA, meteorological factors selection with GCA, residual revision by GRNN and forecasting results analysis. Three cities (Chongqing, Harbin and Jinan) in China with different characteristics of climate, terrain and pollution sources are selected to verify the effectiveness of proposed model, and CEEMD-PSOGSA-SVR*, EEMD-PSOGSA-SVR, PSOGSA-SVR, CEEMD-PSO-SVR, CEEMD-GSA-SVR, CEEMD-GWO-SVR are considered to be compared models. The experimental results show that the hybrid CEEMD-PSOGSA-SVR-GRNN model outperforms other six compared models. Therefore, the proposed CEEMD-PSOGSA-SVR-GRNN model can be used to develop air quality forecasting and warnings.

Assimilation of total lightning data using the three-dimensional variational method at convection-allowing resolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Rong; Zhang, Yijun; Xu, Liangtao; Zheng, Dong; Yao, Wen

2017-08-01

A large number of observational analyses have shown that lightning data can be used to indicate areas of deep convection. It is important to assimilate observed lightning data into numerical models, so that more small-scale information can be incorporated to improve the quality of the initial condition and the subsequent forecasts. In this study, the empirical relationship between flash rate, water vapor mixing ratio, and graupel mixing ratio was used to adjust the model relative humidity, which was then assimilated by using the three-dimensional variational data assimilation system of the Weather Research and Forecasting model in cycling mode at 10-min intervals. To find the appropriate assimilation time-window length that yielded significant improvement in both the initial conditions and subsequent forecasts, four experiments with different assimilation time-window lengths were conducted for a squall line case that occurred on 10 July 2007 in North China. It was found that 60 min was the appropriate assimilation time-window length for this case, and longer assimilation window length was unnecessary since no further improvement was present. Forecasts of 1-h accumulated precipitation during the assimilation period and the subsequent 3-h accumulated precipitation were significantly improved compared with the control experiment without lightning data assimilation. The simulated reflectivity was optimal after 30 min of the forecast, it remained optimal during the following 42 min, and the positive effect from lightning data assimilation began to diminish after 72 min of the forecast. Overall, the improvement from lightning data assimilation can be maintained for about 3 h.

Short-term forecasting of meteorological time series using Nonparametric Functional Data Analysis (NPFDA)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Curceac, S.; Ternynck, C.; Ouarda, T.

2015-12-01

Over the past decades, a substantial amount of research has been conducted to model and forecast climatic variables. In this study, Nonparametric Functional Data Analysis (NPFDA) methods are applied to forecast air temperature and wind speed time series in Abu Dhabi, UAE. The dataset consists of hourly measurements recorded for a period of 29 years, 1982-2010. The novelty of the Functional Data Analysis approach is in expressing the data as curves. In the present work, the focus is on daily forecasting and the functional observations (curves) express the daily measurements of the above mentioned variables. We apply a non-linear regression model with a functional non-parametric kernel estimator. The computation of the estimator is performed using an asymmetrical quadratic kernel function for local weighting based on the bandwidth obtained by a cross validation procedure. The proximities between functional objects are calculated by families of semi-metrics based on derivatives and Functional Principal Component Analysis (FPCA). Additionally, functional conditional mode and functional conditional median estimators are applied and the advantages of combining their results are analysed. A different approach employs a SARIMA model selected according to the minimum Akaike (AIC) and Bayessian (BIC) Information Criteria and based on the residuals of the model. The performance of the models is assessed by calculating error indices such as the root mean square error (RMSE), relative RMSE, BIAS and relative BIAS. The results indicate that the NPFDA models provide more accurate forecasts than the SARIMA models. Key words: Nonparametric functional data analysis, SARIMA, time series forecast, air temperature, wind speed

31 CFR 540.202 - Effect of transfers violating the provisions of this part.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... pursuant to § 540.201(a) is null and void and shall not be the basis for the assertion or recognition of... discretion, retroactively license a transfer of property that is null and void or unenforceable by virtue of the provisions of this section so that such a transfer shall not be deemed to be null and void or...

Synoptic Factors Affecting Structure Predictability of Hurricane Alex (2016)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonzalez-Aleman, J. J.; Evans, J. L.; Kowaleski, A. M.

2016-12-01

On January 7, 2016, a disturbance formed over the western North Atlantic basin. After undergoing tropical transition, the system became the first hurricane of 2016 - and the first North Atlantic hurricane to form in January since 1938. Already an extremely rare hurricane event, Alex then underwent extratropical transition [ET] just north of the Azores Islands. We examine the factors affecting Alex's structural evolution through a new technique called path-clustering. In this way, 51 ensembles from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Ensemble Prediction System (ECMWF-EPS) are grouped based on similarities in the storm's path through the Cyclone Phase Space (CPS). The differing clusters group various possible scenarios of structural development represented in the ensemble forecasts. As a result, it is possible to shed light on the role of the synoptic scale in changing the structure of this hurricane in the midlatitudes through intercomparison of the most "realistic" forecast of the evolution of Alex and the other physically plausible modes of its development.

Forecasting the impact of transport improvements on commuting and residential choice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elhorst, J. Paul; Oosterhaven, Jan

2006-03-01

This paper develops a probabilistic, competing-destinations, assignment model that predicts changes in the spatial pattern of the working population as a result of transport improvements. The choice of residence is explained by a new non-parametric model, which represents an alternative to the popular multinominal logit model. Travel times between zones are approximated by a normal distribution function with different mean and variance for each pair of zones, whereas previous models only use average travel times. The model’s forecast error of the spatial distribution of the Dutch working population is 7% when tested on 1998 base-year data. To incorporate endogenous changes in its causal variables, an almost ideal demand system is estimated to explain the choice of transport mode, and a new economic geography inter-industry model (RAEM) is estimated to explain the spatial distribution of employment. In the application, the model is used to forecast the impact of six mutually exclusive Dutch core-periphery railway proposals in the projection year 2020.

Advanced solar irradiances applied to satellite and ionospheric operational systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tobiska, W. Kent; Schunk, Robert; Eccles, Vince; Bouwer, Dave

Satellite and ionospheric operational systems require solar irradiances in a variety of time scales and spectral formats. We describe the development of a system using operational grade solar irradiances that are applied to empirical thermospheric density models and physics-based ionospheric models used by operational systems that require a space weather characterization. The SOLAR2000 (S2K) and SOLARFLARE (SFLR) models developed by Space Environment Technologies (SET) provide solar irradiances from the soft X-rays (XUV) through the Far Ultraviolet (FUV) spectrum. The irradiances are provided as integrated indices for the JB2006 empirical atmosphere density models and as line/band spectral irradiances for the physics-based Ionosphere Forecast Model (IFM) developed by the Space Environment Corporation (SEC). We describe the integration of these irradiances in historical, current epoch, and forecast modes through the Communication Alert and Prediction System (CAPS). CAPS provides real-time and forecast HF radio availability for global and regional users and global total electron content (TEC) conditions.

S-NPP CrIS Full Resolution Sensor Data Record Processing and Evaluations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Y.; Han, Y.; Wang, L.; Tremblay, D. A.; Jin, X.; Weng, F.

2014-12-01

The Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) on Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership Satellite (S-NPP) is a Fourier transform spectrometer. It provides a total of 1305 channels in the normal mode for sounding the atmosphere. CrIS can also be operated in the full spectral resolution (FSR) mode, in which the MWIR and SWIR band interferograms are recorded with the same maximum path difference as the LWIR band and with spectral resolution of 0.625 cm-1 for all three bands (total 2211 channels). NOAA will operate CrIS in FSR mode in December 2014 and the Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS). Up to date, the FSR mode has been commanded three times in-orbit (02/23/2012, 03/12/2013, and 08/27/2013). Based on CrIS Algorithm Development Library (ADL), CrIS full resolution Processing System (CRPS) has developed to generate the FSR Sensor Data Record (SDR). This code can also be run for normal mode and truncation mode SDRs with recompiling. Different calibration approaches are implemented in the code in order to study the ringing effect observed in CrIS normal mode SDR and to support to select the best calibration algorithm for J1. We develop the CrIS FSR SDR Validation System to quantify the CrIS radiometric and spectral accuracy, since they are crucial for improving its data assimilation in the numerical weather prediction, and for retrieving atmospheric trace gases. In this study, CrIS full resolution SDRs are generated from CRPS using the data collected from FSR mode of S-NPP, and the radiometric and spectral accuracy are assessed by using the Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) forecast fields. The biases between observation and simulations are evaluated to estimate the FOV-2-FOV variability and bias under clear sky over ocean. Double difference method and Simultaneous Nadir Overpass (SNO) method are also used to assess the CrIS radiance consistency with well-validated IASI. Two basic frequency validation methods (absolute and relative spectral validations) are used to assess the CrIS spectral accuracy. Results show that CrIS SDRs from FSR have similar radiometric and spectral accuracy as those from normal mode.

Towards real-time flood forecasting in hydraulics: merits of in situ discharge and water level data assimilation for the modeling of the Marne catchment in France

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ricci, S. M.; Habert, J.; Le Pape, E.; Piacentini, A.; Jonville, G.; Thual, O.; Zaoui, F.

2011-12-01

The present study describes the assimilation of river flow and water level observations and the resulting improvement in flood forecasting. The Kalman Filter algorithm was built on top of the one-dimensional hydraulic model, MASCARET, [1] which describes the Saint-Venant equations. The assimilation algorithm folds in two steps: the first one was based on the assumption that the upstream flow can be adjusted using a three-parameter correction; the second one consisted of directly correcting the hydraulic state. This procedure was previously applied on the Adour Maritime Catchment using water level observations [2]. On average, it was shown that the data assimilation procedure enables an improvement of 80% in the simulated water level over the reanalysis period, 60 % in the forecast water level at a one-hour lead time, and 25% at a twelve-hour lead time. The procedure was then applied on the Marne Catchment, which includes karstic tributaries, located East of the Paris basin, characterized by long flooding periods and strong sensitivity to local precipitations. The objective was to geographically extend and improve the existing model used by the flood forecasting service located in Chalons-en-Champagne. A hydrological study first enabled the specification of boundary conditions (upstream flow or lateral inflow), then the hydraulic model was calibrated using in situ discharge data (adjustment of Strickler coefficients or cross sectional geometry). The assimilation of water level data enabled the reduction of the uncertainty in the hydrological boundary conditions and led to significant improvement of the simulated water level in re-analysis and forecast modes. Still, because of errors in the Strickler coefficients or cross section geometry, the improvement of the simulated water level sometimes resulted in a degradation of discharge values. This problem was overcome by controlling the correction of the hydrological boundary conditions by directly assimilating discharge observations rather than water level observations. As this approach leads to a satisfying simulation of flood events in the Marne catchment in re-analysis and forecast mode, ongoing work aims at controlling Strickler coefficients through data assimilation procedures in order to simultaneously improve the water level and discharge state. [1] N. Goutal, F. Maurel: A finite volume solver for 1D shallow water equations applied to an actual river, Int. J. Numer. Meth. Fluids, 38(2), 1--19, 2002. [2] S. Ricci, A. Piacentini, O. Thual, E. Le Pape, G. Jonville, 2011: Correction of upstream flow and hydraulic state with data assimilation on the context of flood forecasting. Submitted to Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci, In review.

Prediction of kharif rice yield at Kharagpur using disaggregated extended range rainfall forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dhekale, B. S.; Nageswararao, M. M.; Nair, Archana; Mohanty, U. C.; Swain, D. K.; Singh, K. K.; Arunbabu, T.

2017-08-01

The Extended Range Forecasts System (ERFS) has been generating monthly and seasonal forecasts on real-time basis throughout the year over India since 2009. India is one of the major rice producer and consumer in South Asia; more than 50% of the Indian population depends on rice as staple food. Rice is mainly grown in kharif season, which contributed 84% of the total annual rice production of the country. Rice cultivation in India is rainfed, which depends largely on rains, so reliability of the rainfall forecast plays a crucial role for planning the kharif rice crop. In the present study, an attempt has been made to test the reliability of seasonal and sub-seasonal ERFS summer monsoon rainfall forecasts for kharif rice yield predictions at Kharagpur, West Bengal by using CERES-Rice (DSSATv4.5) model. These ERFS forecasts are produced as monthly and seasonal mean values and are converted into daily sequences with stochastic weather generators for use with crop growth models. The daily sequences are generated from ERFS seasonal (June-September) and sub-seasonal (July-September, August-September, and September) summer monsoon (June to September) rainfall forecasts which are considered as input in CERES-rice crop simulation model for the crop yield prediction for hindcast (1985-2008) and real-time mode (2009-2015). The yield simulated using India Meteorological Department (IMD) observed daily rainfall data is considered as baseline yield for evaluating the performance of predicted yields using the ERFS forecasts. The findings revealed that the stochastic disaggregation can be used to disaggregate the monthly/seasonal ERFS forecasts into daily sequences. The year to year variability in rice yield at Kharagpur is efficiently predicted by using the ERFS forecast products in hindcast as well as real time, and significant enhancement in the prediction skill is noticed with advancement in the season due to incorporation of observed weather data which reduces uncertainty of yield prediction. The findings also recommend that the normal and above normal yields are predicted well in advance using the ERFS forecasts. The outcomes of this study are useful to farmers for taking appropriate decisions well in advance for climate risk management in rice production during different stages of the crop growing season at Kharagpur.

Extreme precipitation event over North China in August 2010: observations, monthly forecasting, and link to intra-seasonal variability of the Silk-Road wave-train across Eurasia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orsolini, Yvan; Zhang, Ling; Peters, Dieter; Fraedrich, Klaus

2014-05-01

Forecast of regional precipitation events at the sub-seasonal timescale remains a big challenge for operational global prediction systems. Over the Far East in summer, climate and precipitation are strongly influenced by the fluctuating western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) and strong precipitation is often associated with southeasterly low-level wind that brings moist-laden air from the southern China seas. The WPSH variability is partly influenced by quasi-stationary wave-trains propagating eastwards from Europe across Asia along the two westerly jets: the Silk-Road wave-train along the Asian jet at mid-latitudes and, on a more northern route, the polar wave-train along the sub-polar jet. While the Silk-Road wave-train appears as a robust, internal mode of variability in seasonal predictions models, its predictability is very low on the sub-seasonal to seasonal time scale. A case in point is the unusual summer of 2010, when China experienced its worst seasonal flooding for a decade, triggered by unusually prolonged and severe monsoonal rains. In addition that summer was also characterized by record-breaking heat wave over Eastern Europe and Russia as well as catastrophic monsoonal floods in Pakistan 2010. The impact of the latter circulation anomalies on the precipitation further east over China, has been little explored. Here, we examine the role and the actual predictability of the Silk-Road wave-train, and its impact on precipitation over Northeastern China throughout August 2010, using the high-resolution IFS forecast model of ECMWF, realistic initialized and run in an ensemble mode. We demonstrate that the forecast failure with regard to flooding and extreme precipitation over Northeastern China in August 2010 is linked to the failure to represent intra-seasonal variations of the Silk-Road wave-train and the associated intensification of the WPSH.

The Evaluation of Feasibility of Thermal Energy Storage System at Riga TPP-2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ivanova, P.; Linkevics, O.; Cers, A.

2015-12-01

The installation of thermal energy storage system (TES) provides the optimisation of energy source, energy security supply, power plant operation and energy production flexibility. The aim of the present research is to evaluate the feasibility of thermal energy system installation at Riga TPP-2. The six modes were investigated: four for non-heating periods and two for heating periods. Different research methods were used: data statistic processing, data analysis, analogy, forecasting, financial method and correlation and regression method. In the end, the best mode was chosen - the increase of cogeneration unit efficiency during the summer.

Air transportation energy consumption - Yesterday, today, and tomorrow

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mascy, A. C.; Williams, L. J.

1975-01-01

The energy consumption by aviation is reviewed and projections of its growth are discussed. Forecasts of domestic passenger demand are presented, and the effect of restricted fuel supply and increased fuel prices is considered. The most promising sources for aircraft fuels, their availability and cost, and possible alternative fuels are reviewed. The energy consumption by various air and surface transportation modes is identified and compared on typical portal-to-portal trips. A measure of the indirect energy consumed by ground and air modes is defined. Historical trends in aircraft energy intensities are presented and the potential fuel savings with new technologies are discussed.

[Advancements of computer chemistry in separation of Chinese medicine].

PubMed

Li, Lingjuan; Hong, Hong; Xu, Xuesong; Guo, Liwei

2011-12-01

Separating technique of Chinese medicine is not only a key technique in the field of Chinese medicine' s research and development, but also a significant step in the modernization of Chinese medicinal preparation. Computer chemistry can build model and look for the regulations from Chinese medicine system which is full of complicated data. This paper analyzed the applicability, key technology, basic mode and common algorithm of computer chemistry applied in the separation of Chinese medicine, introduced the mathematic mode and the setting methods of Extraction kinetics, investigated several problems which based on traditional Chinese medicine membrane procession, and forecasted the application prospect.

Impact of capturing rainfall scavenging intermittency using cloud superparameterization on simulated continental scale wildfire smoke transport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pritchard, M. S.; Kooperman, G. J.; Zhao, Z.; Wang, M.; Russell, L. M.; Somerville, R. C.; Ghan, S. J.

2011-12-01

Evaluating the fidelity of new aerosol physics in climate models is confounded by uncertainties in source emissions, systematic error in cloud parameterizations, and inadequate sampling of long-range plume concentrations. To explore the degree to which cloud parameterizations distort aerosol processing and scavenging, the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) Aerosol-Enabled Multi-Scale Modeling Framework (AE-MMF), a superparameterized branch of the Community Atmosphere Model Version 5 (CAM5), is applied to represent the unusually active and well sampled North American wildfire season in 2004. In the AE-MMF approach, the evolution of double moment aerosols in the exterior global resolved scale is linked explicitly to convective statistics harvested from an interior cloud resolving scale. The model is configured in retroactive nudged mode to observationally constrain synoptic meteorology, and Arctic wildfire activity is prescribed at high space/time resolution using data from the Global Fire Emissions Database. Comparisons against standard CAM5 bracket the effect of superparameterization to isolate the role of capturing rainfall intermittency on the bulk characteristics of 2004 Arctic plume transport. Ground based lidar and in situ aircraft wildfire plume constraints from the International Consortium for Atmospheric Research on Transport and Transformation field campaign are used as a baseline for model evaluation.

CMB delensing beyond the B modes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Green, Daniel; Meyers, Joel; van Engelen, Alexander

2017-12-01

Gravitational lensing by large-scale structure significantly impacts observations of the cosmic microwave background (CMB): it smooths the acoustic peaks in temperature and E-mode polarization power spectra, correlating previously uncorrelated modes; and it converts E-mode polarization into B-mode polarization. The act of measuring and removing the effect of lensing from CMB maps, or delensing, has been well studied in the context of B modes, but little attention has been given to the delensing of the temperature and E modes. In this paper, we model the expected delensed T and E power spectra to all orders in the lensing potential, demonstrating the sharpening of the acoustic peaks and a significant reduction in lens-induced power spectrum covariances. We then perform cosmological forecasts, demonstrating that delensing will yield improved sensitivity to parameters with upcoming surveys. We highlight the breaking of the degeneracy between the effective number of neutrino species and primordial helium fraction as a concrete application. We also show that delensing increases cosmological information as long as the measured lensing reconstruction is included in the analysis. We conclude that with future data, delensing will be crucial not only for primordial B-mode science but for a range of other observables as well.

Monitoring of waste disposal in deep geological formations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

German, V.; Mansurov, V.

2003-04-01

In the paper application of kinetic approach for description of rock failure process and waste disposal microseismic monitoring is advanced. On base of two-stage model of failure process the capability of rock fracture is proved. The requests to monitoring system such as real time mode of data registration and processing and its precision range are formulated. The method of failure nuclei delineation in a rock masses is presented. This method is implemented in a software program for strong seismic events forecasting. It is based on direct use of the fracture concentration criterion. The method is applied to the database of microseismic events of the North Ural Bauxite Mine. The results of this application, such as: efficiency, stability, possibility of forecasting rockburst are discussed.

Contribution of tropical instability waves to ENSO irregularity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holmes, Ryan M.; McGregor, Shayne; Santoso, Agus; England, Matthew H.

2018-05-01

Tropical instability waves (TIWs) are a major source of internally-generated oceanic variability in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. These non-linear phenomena play an important role in the sea surface temperature (SST) budget in a region critical for low-frequency modes of variability such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, the direct contribution of TIW-driven stochastic variability to ENSO has received little attention. Here, we investigate the influence of TIWs on ENSO using a 1/4° ocean model coupled to a simple atmosphere. The use of a simple atmosphere removes complex intrinsic atmospheric variability while allowing the dominant mode of air-sea coupling to be represented as a statistical relationship between SST and wind stress anomalies. Using this hybrid coupled model, we perform a suite of coupled ensemble forecast experiments initiated with wind bursts in the western Pacific, where individual ensemble members differ only due to internal oceanic variability. We find that TIWs can induce a spread in the forecast amplitude of the Niño 3 SST anomaly 6-months after a given sequence of WWBs of approximately ± 45% the size of the ensemble mean anomaly. Further, when various estimates of stochastic atmospheric forcing are added, oceanic internal variability is found to contribute between about 20% and 70% of the ensemble forecast spread, with the remainder attributable to the atmospheric variability. While the oceanic contribution to ENSO stochastic forcing requires further quantification beyond the idealized approach used here, our results nevertheless suggest that TIWs may impact ENSO irregularity and predictability. This has implications for ENSO representation in low-resolution coupled models.

A Novel Hybrid Data-Driven Model for Daily Land Surface Temperature Forecasting Using Long Short-Term Memory Neural Network Based on Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition

PubMed Central

Zhang, Xike; Zhang, Qiuwen; Zhang, Gui; Nie, Zhiping; Gui, Zifan; Que, Huafei

2018-01-01

Daily land surface temperature (LST) forecasting is of great significance for application in climate-related, agricultural, eco-environmental, or industrial studies. Hybrid data-driven prediction models using Ensemble Empirical Mode Composition (EEMD) coupled with Machine Learning (ML) algorithms are useful for achieving these purposes because they can reduce the difficulty of modeling, require less history data, are easy to develop, and are less complex than physical models. In this article, a computationally simple, less data-intensive, fast and efficient novel hybrid data-driven model called the EEMD Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network, namely EEMD-LSTM, is proposed to reduce the difficulty of modeling and to improve prediction accuracy. The daily LST data series from the Mapoling and Zhijiang stations in the Dongting Lake basin, central south China, from 1 January 2014 to 31 December 2016 is used as a case study. The EEMD is firstly employed to decompose the original daily LST data series into many Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs) and a single residue item. Then, the Partial Autocorrelation Function (PACF) is used to obtain the number of input data sample points for LSTM models. Next, the LSTM models are constructed to predict the decompositions. All the predicted results of the decompositions are aggregated as the final daily LST. Finally, the prediction performance of the hybrid EEMD-LSTM model is assessed in terms of the Mean Square Error (MSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Pearson Correlation Coefficient (CC) and Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient of Efficiency (NSCE). To validate the hybrid data-driven model, the hybrid EEMD-LSTM model is compared with the Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), LSTM and Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) coupled with RNN, EMD-LSTM and EEMD-RNN models, and their comparison results demonstrate that the hybrid EEMD-LSTM model performs better than the other five models. The scatterplots of the predicted results of the six models versus the original daily LST data series show that the hybrid EEMD-LSTM model is superior to the other five models. It is concluded that the proposed hybrid EEMD-LSTM model in this study is a suitable tool for temperature forecasting. PMID:29883381

A Novel Hybrid Data-Driven Model for Daily Land Surface Temperature Forecasting Using Long Short-Term Memory Neural Network Based on Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition.

PubMed

Zhang, Xike; Zhang, Qiuwen; Zhang, Gui; Nie, Zhiping; Gui, Zifan; Que, Huafei

2018-05-21

Daily land surface temperature (LST) forecasting is of great significance for application in climate-related, agricultural, eco-environmental, or industrial studies. Hybrid data-driven prediction models using Ensemble Empirical Mode Composition (EEMD) coupled with Machine Learning (ML) algorithms are useful for achieving these purposes because they can reduce the difficulty of modeling, require less history data, are easy to develop, and are less complex than physical models. In this article, a computationally simple, less data-intensive, fast and efficient novel hybrid data-driven model called the EEMD Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network, namely EEMD-LSTM, is proposed to reduce the difficulty of modeling and to improve prediction accuracy. The daily LST data series from the Mapoling and Zhijaing stations in the Dongting Lake basin, central south China, from 1 January 2014 to 31 December 2016 is used as a case study. The EEMD is firstly employed to decompose the original daily LST data series into many Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs) and a single residue item. Then, the Partial Autocorrelation Function (PACF) is used to obtain the number of input data sample points for LSTM models. Next, the LSTM models are constructed to predict the decompositions. All the predicted results of the decompositions are aggregated as the final daily LST. Finally, the prediction performance of the hybrid EEMD-LSTM model is assessed in terms of the Mean Square Error (MSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Pearson Correlation Coefficient (CC) and Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient of Efficiency (NSCE). To validate the hybrid data-driven model, the hybrid EEMD-LSTM model is compared with the Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), LSTM and Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) coupled with RNN, EMD-LSTM and EEMD-RNN models, and their comparison results demonstrate that the hybrid EEMD-LSTM model performs better than the other five models. The scatterplots of the predicted results of the six models versus the original daily LST data series show that the hybrid EEMD-LSTM model is superior to the other five models. It is concluded that the proposed hybrid EEMD-LSTM model in this study is a suitable tool for temperature forecasting.

Teleconnections in the Presence of Climate Change: A Case Study of the Annular Modes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gerber, Edwin; Baldwin, Mark

2010-05-01

Long model integrations of future and past climates present a problem for defining teleconnection patterns through Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) or correlation analysis when trends in the underlying climate begin to dominate the covariance structure. Similar issues may soon appear in observations as the record becomes longer, especially if climate trends accelerate. The Northern and Southern Annular Modes provide a prime example, because the poleward shift of the jet streams strongly projects onto these patterns, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere. Climate forecasts of the 21st century by chemistry climate models provide a case study. Computation of the annular modes in these long data sets with secular trends requires refinement of the standard definition of the annular mode, and a more robust procedure that allows for slowly varying trends is established and verified. The new procedure involves two key changes. First, the global mean geopotential height is removed at each time step before computing anomalies. This is particularly important high in the atmosphere, where seasonal variations in geopotential height become significant, and filters out trends due to changes in the temperature structure of the atmosphere. Pattern definition can be very sensitive near the tropopause, as regions of the atmosphere that used to be more of stratospheric character begin to take on tropospheric characteristics as the tropopause rises. The second change is to define anomalies relative to a slowly evolving seasonal climatology, so that the covariance structure reflects internal variability. Once these changes are accounted for, it is found that the zonal mean variability of the atmosphere stays remarkably constant, despite significant changes in the baseline climate forecast for the rest of the century. This stability of the internal variability makes it possible to relate trends in climate to teleconnections.

I saw where you have been--The topography of human demonstration affects dogs' search patterns and perseverative errors.

PubMed

Péter, András; Topál, József; Miklósi, Ádám; Pongrácz, Péter

2016-04-01

Performance in object search tasks is not only influenced by the subjects' object permanence ability. For example, ostensive cues of the human manipulating the target markedly affect dogs' choices. However, the interference between the target's location and the spatial cues of the human hiding the object is still unknown. In a five-location visible displacement task, the experimental groups differed in the hiding route of the experimenter. In the 'direct' condition he moved straight towards the actual location, hid the object and returned to the dog. In the 'indirect' conditions, he additionally walked behind each screen before returning. The two 'indirect' conditions differed from each other in that the human either visited the previously baited locations before (proactive interference) or after (retroactive interference) hiding the object. In the 'indirect' groups, dogs' performance was significantly lower than in the 'direct' group, demonstrating that for dogs, in an ostensive context, spatial cues of the hider are as important as the observed location of the target. Based on their incorrect choices, dogs were most attracted to the previously baited locations that the human visited after hiding the object in the actual trial. This underlines the importance of retroactive interference in multiple choice tasks. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Retrieval Practice Fails to Insulate Episodic Memories against Interference after Stroke.

PubMed

Pastötter, Bernhard; Eberle, Hanna; Aue, Ingo; Bäuml, Karl-Heinz T

2017-01-01

Recent work in cognitive psychology showed that retrieval practice of previously studied information can insulate this information against retroactive interference from subsequently studied other information in healthy individuals. The present study examined whether this beneficial effect of interference reduction is also present in patients with stroke. Twenty-two patients with stroke, 4.6 months post injury on average, and 22 healthy controls participated in the experiment. In each of two experimental sessions, participants first studied a list of items (list 1) and then underwent a practice phase in which the list 1 items were either restudied or retrieval practiced. Participants then either studied a second list of items (list 2) or fulfilled an unrelated distractor task. Recall of the two lists' items was assessed in a final criterion test. Results showed that, in healthy controls, additional study of list 2 items impaired final recall of list 1 items in the restudy condition but not in the retrieval practice condition. In contrast, in patients with stroke, list 2 learning impaired final list 1 recall in both conditions. The results indicate that retrieval practice insulated the tested information against retroactive interference in healthy controls, but failed to do so in patients with stroke. Possible implications of the findings for the understanding of long-term memory impairment after stroke are discussed.

Ensemble Canonical Correlation Prediction of Seasonal Precipitation Over the United States: Raising the Bar for Dynamical Model Forecasts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K. M.; Kim, Kyu-Myong; Shen, S. P.

2001-01-01

This paper presents preliminary results of an ensemble canonical correlation (ECC) prediction scheme developed at the Climate and Radiation Branch, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center for determining the potential predictability of regional precipitation, and for climate downscaling studies. The scheme is tested on seasonal hindcasts of anomalous precipitation over the continental United States using global sea surface temperature (SST) for 1951-2000. To maximize the forecast skill derived from SST, the world ocean is divided into non-overlapping sectors. The canonical SST modes for each sector are used as the predictor for the ensemble hindcasts. Results show that the ECC yields a substantial (10-25%) increase in prediction skills for all the regions of the US in every season compared to traditional CCA prediction schemes. For the boreal winter, the tropical Pacific contributes the largest potential predictability to precipitation in the southwestern and southeastern regions, while the North Pacific and the North Atlantic are responsible to the enhanced forecast skills in the Pacific Northwest, the northern Great Plains and Ohio Valley. Most importantly, the ECC increases skill for summertime precipitation prediction and substantially reduces the spring predictability barrier over all the regions of the US continent. Besides SST, the ECC is designed with the flexibility to include any number of predictor fields, such as soil moisture, snow cover and additional local observations. The enhanced ECC forecast skill provides a new benchmark for evaluating dynamical model forecasts.

The Navy's First Seasonal Ice Forecasts using the Navy's Arctic Cap Nowcast/Forecast System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Preller, Ruth

2013-04-01

As conditions in the Arctic continue to change, the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) has developed an interest in longer-term seasonal ice extent forecasts. The Arctic Cap Nowcast/Forecast System (ACNFS), developed by the Oceanography Division of NRL, was run in forward model mode, without assimilation, to estimate the minimum sea ice extent for September 2012. The model was initialized with varying assimilative ACNFS analysis fields (June 1, July 1, August 1 and September 1, 2012) and run forward for nine simulations using the archived Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) atmospheric forcing fields from 2003-2011. The mean ice extent in September, averaged across all ensemble members was the projected summer ice extent. These results were submitted to the Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH) Sea Ice Outlook project (http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook). The ACNFS is a ~3.5 km coupled ice-ocean model that produces 5 day forecasts of the Arctic sea ice state in all ice covered areas in the northern hemisphere (poleward of 40° N). The ocean component is the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) and is coupled to the Los Alamos National Laboratory Community Ice CodE (CICE) via the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF). The ocean and ice models are run in an assimilative cycle with the Navy's Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation (NCODA) system. Currently the ACNFS is being transitioned to operations at the Naval Oceanographic Office.

A strategy for the observation of volcanism on Earth from space.

PubMed

Wadge, G

2003-01-15

Heat, strain, topography and atmospheric emissions associated with volcanism are well observed by satellites orbiting the Earth. Gravity and electromagnetic transients from volcanoes may also prove to be measurable from space. The nature of eruptions means that the best strategy for measuring their dynamic properties remotely from space is to employ two modes with different spatial and temporal samplings: eruption mode and background mode. Such observational programmes are best carried out at local or regional volcano observatories by coupling them with numerical models of volcanic processes. Eventually, such models could become multi-process, operational forecast models that assimilate the remote and other observables to constrain their uncertainties. The threat posed by very large magnitude explosive eruptions is global and best addressed by a spaceborne observational programme with a global remit.

Predictability and prediction of tropical cyclones on daily to interannual time scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belanger, James Ian

The spatial and temporal complexity of tropical cyclones (TCs) raises a number of scientific questions regarding their genesis, movement, intensification, and variability. In this dissertation, the principal goal is to determine the current state of predictability for each of these processes using global numerical prediction systems. The predictability findings are then used in conjunction with several new statistical calibration techniques to develop a proof-of-concept, operational forecast system for North Atlantic TCs on daily to intraseasonal time scales. To quantify the current extent of tropical cyclone predictability, we assess probabilistic forecasts from the most advanced global numerical weather prediction system to date, the ECMWF Variable Resolution Ensemble Prediction System (VarEPS; Hamill et al. 2008, Hagedorn et al. 2012). Using a new false alarm clustering technique to maximize the utility of the VarEPS, the ensemble system is shown to provide well-calibrated probabilistic forecasts for TC genesis through a lead-time of one week and pregenesis track forecasts with similar skill compared to the VarEPS's postgenesis track forecasts. These findings provide evidence that skillful real-time TC genesis predictions may be made in the North Indian Ocean—a region that even today has limited forecast warning windows for TCs relative to other ocean basins. To quantify the predictability of TCs on intraseasonal time scales, forecasts from the ECMWF Monthly Forecast System (ECMFS) are examined for the North Atlantic Ocean. From this assessment, dynamically based forecasts from the ECMFS provide forecast skill exceeding climatology out to weeks three and four for portions of the southern Gulf of Mexico, western Caribbean and the Main Development Region. Forecast skill in these regions is traced to the model's ability to capture correctly the variability in deep-layer vertical wind shear as well as the relative frequency of easterly waves moving through these regions. Following the TC predictability studies, a proof-of-concept operational forecast system for North Atlantic TCs is presented for daily to intraseasonal time scales. Findings from the predictability studies are used in conjunction with recently developed forecast calibration techniques to render the VarEPS and ECMFS forecasts more useful in an operational setting. The proposed combination of bias-calibrated regional probabilistic forecast guidance along with objectively-defined measures of confidence is a new way of providing TC forecasts on intraseasonal time scales. On interannual time scales, the predictability of TCs is examined by considering their relationship with tropical Atlantic easterly waves. First, a set of easterly wave climatologies for the Climate Forecast System-Reanalysis, ERA-Interim, ERA-40, and NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis are developed using a new easterly wave tracking algorithm based on 700 hPa curvature relative vorticity anomalies. From the reanalysis-derived easterly wave climatologies, a moderately positive and statistically significant relationship is seen with tropical Atlantic TCs, suggesting that approximately 20-30% of the total variance in the number of TCs on interannual time scales may be explained by the frequency of easterly waves. In relation to large-scale climate modes, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM) exhibit the strongest positive covariability with Atlantic easterly wave frequency. Besides changes in the number of easterly waves, the intensification efficiency of easterly waves, which is the percentage of waves that induce North Atlantic TC formation, has also been evaluated. These findings offer a plausible physical explanation for the recent increase in the number of NATL TCs, as it has been concomitant with an increasing trend in both the number of tropical Atlantic easterly waves and intensification efficiency. In addition, the easterly wave-tropical cyclone pathway is likely an important mechanism governing how the AMO and AMM modulate North Atlantic TC frequency—more so than previous thought (e.g., Thorncroft and Hodges 2001, Hopsch et al. 2007, Kossin and Vimont 2007). The last component of this dissertation examines how the historical variability in U.S. landfalling TCs has impacted the annual TC tornado record. To reconcile the inhomogeneous, historical tornado record, two statistical tornado models, developed from a set of a priori predictors for TC tornado formation, are used to reconstruct the TC tornado climatology. Based on the evaluation period during the most reliable portion of the TC tornado record, these models possess moderate skill in forecasting the magnitude of a tornado outbreak from a Gulf landfalling TC and have high skill in forecasting the annual number of TC tornadoes. While the synthetic TC tornado record also reflects decadal scale variations in association with the AMO, a comparison of the current warm phase of the AMO with the previous warm phase period shows that the median number of tornadoes per Gulf TC landfall has significantly increased. This change likely reflects the increase in median TC size (by 35%) of Gulf landfalling TCs along with an increased frequency of large TCs at landfall.

Forecasting volcanic ash dispersal and coeval resuspension during the April-May 2015 Calbuco eruption

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reckziegel, F.; Bustos, E.; Mingari, L.; Báez, W.; Villarosa, G.; Folch, A.; Collini, E.; Viramonte, J.; Romero, J.; Osores, S.

2016-07-01

Atmospheric dispersion of volcanic ash from explosive eruptions or from subsequent fallout deposit resuspension causes a range of impacts and disruptions on human activities and ecosystems. The April-May 2015 Calbuco eruption in Chile involved eruption and resuspension activities. We overview the chronology, effects, and products resulting from these events, in order to validate an operational forecast strategy for tephra dispersal. The modelling strategy builds on coupling the meteorological Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF/ARW) model with the FALL3D dispersal model for eruptive and resuspension processes. The eruption modelling considers two distinct particle granulometries, a preliminary first guess distribution used operationally when no field data was available yet, and a refined distribution based on field measurements. Volcanological inputs were inferred from eruption reports and results from an Argentina-Chilean ash sample data network, which performed in-situ sampling during the eruption. In order to validate the modelling strategy, results were compared with satellite retrievals and ground deposit measurements. Results indicate that the WRF-FALL3D modelling system can provide reasonable forecasts in both eruption and resuspension modes, particularly when the adjusted granulometry is considered. The study also highlights the importance of having dedicated datasets of active volcanoes furnishing first-guess model inputs during the early stages of an eruption.

Coastal ocean forecasting with an unstructured grid model in the southern Adriatic and northern Ionian seas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Federico, Ivan; Pinardi, Nadia; Coppini, Giovanni; Oddo, Paolo; Lecci, Rita; Mossa, Michele

2017-01-01

SANIFS (Southern Adriatic Northern Ionian coastal Forecasting System) is a coastal-ocean operational system based on the unstructured grid finite-element three-dimensional hydrodynamic SHYFEM model, providing short-term forecasts. The operational chain is based on a downscaling approach starting from the large-scale system for the entire Mediterranean Basin (MFS, Mediterranean Forecasting System), which provides initial and boundary condition fields to the nested system. The model is configured to provide hydrodynamics and active tracer forecasts both in open ocean and coastal waters of southeastern Italy using a variable horizontal resolution from the open sea (3-4 km) to coastal areas (50-500 m). Given that the coastal fields are driven by a combination of both local (also known as coastal) and deep-ocean forcings propagating along the shelf, the performance of SANIFS was verified both in forecast and simulation mode, first (i) on the large and shelf-coastal scales by comparing with a large-scale survey CTD (conductivity-temperature-depth) in the Gulf of Taranto and then (ii) on the coastal-harbour scale (Mar Grande of Taranto) by comparison with CTD, ADCP (acoustic doppler current profiler) and tide gauge data. Sensitivity tests were performed on initialization conditions (mainly focused on spin-up procedures) and on surface boundary conditions by assessing the reliability of two alternative datasets at different horizontal resolution (12.5 and 6.5 km). The SANIFS forecasts at a lead time of 1 day were compared with the MFS forecasts, highlighting that SANIFS is able to retain the large-scale dynamics of MFS. The large-scale dynamics of MFS are correctly propagated to the shelf-coastal scale, improving the forecast accuracy (+17 % for temperature and +6 % for salinity compared to MFS). Moreover, the added value of SANIFS was assessed on the coastal-harbour scale, which is not covered by the coarse resolution of MFS, where the fields forecasted by SANIFS reproduced the observations well (temperature RMSE equal to 0.11 °C). Furthermore, SANIFS simulations were compared with hourly time series of temperature, sea level and velocity measured on the coastal-harbour scale, showing a good agreement. Simulations in the Gulf of Taranto described a circulation mainly characterized by an anticyclonic gyre with the presence of cyclonic vortexes in shelf-coastal areas. A surface water inflow from the open sea to Mar Grande characterizes the coastal-harbour scale.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

STADLER, MICHAEL; MASHAYEKH, SALMAN; DEFOREST, NICHOLAS

The ODC Microgrid Controller is an optimization-based model predicative microgrid controller (MPMC) to minimize operation cost (and/or CO2 emissions) in a microgrid in the grid-connected mode. It is composed of several modules, including a) forecasting, b) optimization, c) data exchange and d) power balancing modules. In the presence of a multi-layered control system architecture, these modules will reside in the supervisory control layer.

Reactive Power Compensation Using an Energy Management System

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-09-01

bulk power grid or independent of the grid in islanded mode using various DG sources ( photovoltaic panels, fuel cells, gas generators, batteries...developed in order to forecast the system’s response to both capacitive and inductive power demands on the grid. The process was then confirmed in a...NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA THESIS Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited REACTIVE POWER

Real-time short-term forecast of water inflow into Bureyskaya reservoir

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Motovilov, Yury

2017-04-01

During several recent years, a methodology for operational optimization in hydrosystems including forecasts of the hydrological situation has been developed on example of Burea reservoir. The forecasts accuracy improvement of the water inflow into the reservoir during planning of water and energy regime was one of the main goals for implemented research. Burea river is the second left largest Amur tributary after Zeya river with its 70.7 thousand square kilometers watershed and 723 km-long river course. A variety of natural conditions - from plains in the southern part to northern mountainous areas determine a significant spatio-temporal variability in runoff generation patterns and river regime. Bureyskaya hydropower plant (HPP) with watershed area 65.2 thousand square kilometers is a key station in the Russian Far Eastern energy system providing its reliable operation. With a spacious reservoir, Bureyskaya HPP makes a significant contribution to the protection of the Amur region from catastrophic floods. A physically-based distributed model of runoff generation based on the ECOMAG (ECOlogical Model for Applied Geophysics) hydrological modeling platform has been developed for the Burea River basin. The model describes processes of interception of rainfall/snowfall by the canopy, snow accumulation and melt, soil freezing and thawing, water infiltration into unfrozen and frozen soil, evapotranspiration, thermal and water regime of soil, overland, subsurface, ground and river flow. The governing model's equations are derived from integration of the basic hydro- and thermodynamics equations of water and heat vertical transfer in snowpack, frozen/unfrozen soil, horizontal water flow under and over catchment slopes, etc. The model setup for Bureya river basin included watershed and river network schematization with GIS module by DEM analysis, meteorological time-series preparation, model calibration and validation against historical observations. The results showed good model performance as compared to observed inflow data into the Bureya reservoir and high diagnostic potential of data-modeling system of the runoff formation. With the use of this system the following flowchart for short-range forecasting inflow into Bureyskoe reservoir and forecast correction technique using continuously updated hydrometeorological data has been developed: 1 - Daily renewal of weather observations and forecasts database via the Internet; 2 - Daily runoff calculation from the beginning of the current year to current date is conducted; 3 - Short-range (up to 7 days) forecast is generated based on weather forecast. The idea underlying the model assimilation of newly obtained hydro meteorological information to adjust short-range hydrological forecasts lies in the assumption of the forecast errors inertia. Then the difference between calculated and observed streamflow at the forecast release date is "scattered" with specific weights to calculated streamflow for the forecast lead time. During 2016 this forecasts method of the inflow into the Bureyskaya reservoir up to 7 days is tested in online mode. Satisfactory evaluated short-range inflow forecast success rate is obtained. Tests of developed method have shown strong sensitivity to the results of short-term precipitation forecasts.

Using ensemble rainfall predictions in a countrywide flood forecasting model in Scotland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cranston, M. D.; Maxey, R.; Tavendale, A. C. W.; Buchanan, P.

2012-04-01

Improving flood predictions for all sources of flooding is at the centre of flood risk management policy in Scotland. With the introduction of the Flood Risk Management (Scotland) Act providing a new statutory basis for SEPA's flood warning responsibilities, the pressures on delivering hydrological science developments in support of this legislation has increased. Specifically, flood forecasting capabilities need to develop in support of the need to reduce the impact of flooding through the provision of actively disseminated, reliable and timely flood warnings. Flood forecasting in Scotland has developed significantly in recent years (Cranston and Tavendale, 2012). The development of hydrological models to predict flooding at a catchment scale has relied upon the application of rainfall runoff models utilising raingauge, radar and quantitative precipitation forecasts in the short lead time (less than 6 hours). Single or deterministic forecasts based on highly uncertain rainfall predictions have led to the greatest operational difficulties when communicating flood risk with emergency responders, therefore the emergence of probability-based estimates offers the greatest opportunity for managing uncertain predictions. This paper presents operational application of a physical-conceptual distributed hydrological model on a countrywide basis across Scotland. Developed by CEH Wallingford for SEPA in 2011, Grid-to-Grid (G2G) principally runs in deterministic mode and employs radar and raingauge estimates of rainfall together with weather model predictions to produce forecast river flows, as gridded time-series at a resolution of 1km and for up to 5 days ahead (Cranston, et al., 2012). However the G2G model is now being run operationally using ensemble predictions of rainfall from the MOGREPS-R system to provide probabilistic flood forecasts. By presenting a range of flood predictions on a national scale through this approach, hydrologists are now able to consider an objective measure of the likelihood of flooding impacts to help with risk based emergency communication.

Utilizing Operational and Improved Remote Sensing Measurements to Assess Air Quality Monitoring Model Forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gan, Chuen-Meei

Air quality model forecasts from Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) and Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) are often used to support air quality applications such as regulatory issues and scientific inquiries on atmospheric science processes. In urban environments, these models become more complex due to the inherent complexity of the land surface coupling and the enhanced pollutants emissions. This makes it very difficult to diagnose the model, if the surface parameter forecasts such as PM2.5 (particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 microm) are not accurate. For this reason, getting accurate boundary layer dynamic forecasts is as essential as quantifying realistic pollutants emissions. In this thesis, we explore the usefulness of vertical sounding measurements on assessing meteorological and air quality forecast models. In particular, we focus on assessing the WRF model (12km x 12km) coupled with the CMAQ model for the urban New York City (NYC) area using multiple vertical profiling and column integrated remote sensing measurements. This assessment is helpful in probing the root causes for WRF-CMAQ overestimates of surface PM2.5 occurring both predawn and post-sunset in the NYC area during the summer. In particular, we find that the significant underestimates in the WRF PBL height forecast is a key factor in explaining this anomaly. On the other hand, the model predictions of the PBL height during daytime when convective heating dominates were found to be highly correlated to lidar derived PBL height with minimal bias. Additional topics covered in this thesis include mathematical method using direct Mie scattering approach to convert aerosol microphysical properties from CMAQ into optical parameters making direct comparisons with lidar and multispectral radiometers feasible. Finally, we explore some tentative ideas on combining visible (VIS) and mid-infrared (MIR) sensors to better separate aerosols into fine and coarse modes.

Addressing model error through atmospheric stochastic physical parametrizations: impact on the coupled ECMWF seasonal forecasting system

PubMed Central

Weisheimer, Antje; Corti, Susanna; Palmer, Tim; Vitart, Frederic

2014-01-01

The finite resolution of general circulation models of the coupled atmosphere–ocean system and the effects of sub-grid-scale variability present a major source of uncertainty in model simulations on all time scales. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts has been at the forefront of developing new approaches to account for these uncertainties. In particular, the stochastically perturbed physical tendency scheme and the stochastically perturbed backscatter algorithm for the atmosphere are now used routinely for global numerical weather prediction. The European Centre also performs long-range predictions of the coupled atmosphere–ocean climate system in operational forecast mode, and the latest seasonal forecasting system—System 4—has the stochastically perturbed tendency and backscatter schemes implemented in a similar way to that for the medium-range weather forecasts. Here, we present results of the impact of these schemes in System 4 by contrasting the operational performance on seasonal time scales during the retrospective forecast period 1981–2010 with comparable simulations that do not account for the representation of model uncertainty. We find that the stochastic tendency perturbation schemes helped to reduce excessively strong convective activity especially over the Maritime Continent and the tropical Western Pacific, leading to reduced biases of the outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), cloud cover, precipitation and near-surface winds. Positive impact was also found for the statistics of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), showing an increase in the frequencies and amplitudes of MJO events. Further, the errors of El Niño southern oscillation forecasts become smaller, whereas increases in ensemble spread lead to a better calibrated system if the stochastic tendency is activated. The backscatter scheme has overall neutral impact. Finally, evidence for noise-activated regime transitions has been found in a cluster analysis of mid-latitude circulation regimes over the Pacific–North America region. PMID:24842026

Addressing model error through atmospheric stochastic physical parametrizations: impact on the coupled ECMWF seasonal forecasting system.

PubMed

Weisheimer, Antje; Corti, Susanna; Palmer, Tim; Vitart, Frederic

2014-06-28

The finite resolution of general circulation models of the coupled atmosphere-ocean system and the effects of sub-grid-scale variability present a major source of uncertainty in model simulations on all time scales. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts has been at the forefront of developing new approaches to account for these uncertainties. In particular, the stochastically perturbed physical tendency scheme and the stochastically perturbed backscatter algorithm for the atmosphere are now used routinely for global numerical weather prediction. The European Centre also performs long-range predictions of the coupled atmosphere-ocean climate system in operational forecast mode, and the latest seasonal forecasting system--System 4--has the stochastically perturbed tendency and backscatter schemes implemented in a similar way to that for the medium-range weather forecasts. Here, we present results of the impact of these schemes in System 4 by contrasting the operational performance on seasonal time scales during the retrospective forecast period 1981-2010 with comparable simulations that do not account for the representation of model uncertainty. We find that the stochastic tendency perturbation schemes helped to reduce excessively strong convective activity especially over the Maritime Continent and the tropical Western Pacific, leading to reduced biases of the outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), cloud cover, precipitation and near-surface winds. Positive impact was also found for the statistics of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO), showing an increase in the frequencies and amplitudes of MJO events. Further, the errors of El Niño southern oscillation forecasts become smaller, whereas increases in ensemble spread lead to a better calibrated system if the stochastic tendency is activated. The backscatter scheme has overall neutral impact. Finally, evidence for noise-activated regime transitions has been found in a cluster analysis of mid-latitude circulation regimes over the Pacific-North America region.

Enhancing Famine Early Warning Systems with Improved Forecasts, Satellite Observations and Hydrologic Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Funk, C. C.; Verdin, J.; Thiaw, W. M.; Hoell, A.; Korecha, D.; McNally, A.; Shukla, S.; Arsenault, K. R.; Magadzire, T.; Novella, N.; Peters-Lidard, C. D.; Robjohn, M.; Pomposi, C.; Galu, G.; Rowland, J.; Budde, M. E.; Landsfeld, M. F.; Harrison, L.; Davenport, F.; Husak, G. J.; Endalkachew, E.

2017-12-01

Drought early warning science, in support of famine prevention, is a rapidly advancing field that is helping to save lives and livelihoods. In 2015-2017, a series of extreme droughts afflicted Ethiopia, Southern Africa, Eastern Africa in OND and Eastern Africa in MAM, pushing more than 50 million people into severe food insecurity. Improved drought forecasts and monitoring tools, however, helped motivate and target large and effective humanitarian responses. Here we describe new science being developed by a long-established early warning system - the USAID Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET). FEWS NET is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. FEWS NET research is advancing rapidly on several fronts, providing better climate forecasts and more effective drought monitoring tools that are being used to support enhanced famine early warning. We explore the philosophy and science underlying these successes, suggesting that a modal view of climate change can support enhanced seasonal prediction. Under this modal perspective, warming of the tropical oceans may interact with natural modes of variability, like the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, to enhance Indo-Pacific sea surface temperature gradients during both El Niño and La Niña-like climate states. Using empirical data and climate change simulations, we suggest that a sequence of droughts may commence in northern Ethiopia and Southern Africa with the advent of a moderate-to-strong El Niño, and then continue with La Niña/West Pacific related droughts in equatorial eastern East Africa. Scientifically, we show that a new hybrid statistical-dynamic precipitation forecast system, the FEWS NET Integrated Forecast System (FIFS), based on reformulations of the Global Ensemble Forecast System weather forecasts and National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) seasonal climate predictions, can effectively anticipate recent East and Southern African drought events. Using cross-validation, we evaluate FIFS' skill and compare it to the NMME and the International Research Institute forecasts. Our study concludes with an overview of the satellite observations provided by FEWS NET partners at NOAA, NASA, USGS, and UC Santa Barbara, and the assimilation of these products within the FEWS NET Land Data Assimilation System (FLDAS).

Score Matrix for HWBI Forecast Model

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

2000-2010 Annual State-Scale Service and Domain scores used to support the approach for forecasting EPA's Human Well-Being Index. A modeling approach was developed based relationship function equations derived from select economic, social and ecosystem final goods and service scores and calculated human well-being index and related domain scores. These data are being used in a secondary capacity. The foundational data and scoring techniques were originally described in: a) U.S. EPA. 2012. Indicators and Methods for Constructing a U.S. Human Well-being Index (HWBI) for Ecosystem Services Research. Report. EPA/600/R-12/023. pp. 121; and b) U.S. EPA. 2014. Indicators and Methods for Evaluating Economic, Ecosystem and Social Services Provisioning. Report. EPA/600/R-14/184. pp. 174. Mode Smith, L. M., Harwell, L. C., Summers, J. K., Smith, H. M., Wade, C. M., Straub, K. R. and J.L. Case (2014).This dataset is associated with the following publication:Summers , K., L. Harwell , and L. Smith. A Model For Change: An Approach for Forecasting Well-Being From Service-Based Decisions. ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS. Elsevier Science Ltd, New York, NY, USA, 69: 295-309, (2016).

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mendes, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.

Wind power forecasting (WPF) provides important inputs to power system operators and electricity market participants. It is therefore not surprising that WPF has attracted increasing interest within the electric power industry. In this report, we document our research on improving statistical WPF algorithms for point, uncertainty, and ramp forecasting. Below, we provide a brief introduction to the research presented in the following chapters. For a detailed overview of the state-of-the-art in wind power forecasting, we refer to [1]. Our related work on the application of WPF in operational decisions is documented in [2]. Point forecasts of wind power are highlymore » dependent on the training criteria used in the statistical algorithms that are used to convert weather forecasts and observational data to a power forecast. In Chapter 2, we explore the application of information theoretic learning (ITL) as opposed to the classical minimum square error (MSE) criterion for point forecasting. In contrast to the MSE criterion, ITL criteria do not assume a Gaussian distribution of the forecasting errors. We investigate to what extent ITL criteria yield better results. In addition, we analyze time-adaptive training algorithms and how they enable WPF algorithms to cope with non-stationary data and, thus, to adapt to new situations without requiring additional offline training of the model. We test the new point forecasting algorithms on two wind farms located in the U.S. Midwest. Although there have been advancements in deterministic WPF, a single-valued forecast cannot provide information on the dispersion of observations around the predicted value. We argue that it is essential to generate, together with (or as an alternative to) point forecasts, a representation of the wind power uncertainty. Wind power uncertainty representation can take the form of probabilistic forecasts (e.g., probability density function, quantiles), risk indices (e.g., prediction risk index) or scenarios (with spatial and/or temporal dependence). Statistical approaches to uncertainty forecasting basically consist of estimating the uncertainty based on observed forecasting errors. Quantile regression (QR) is currently a commonly used approach in uncertainty forecasting. In Chapter 3, we propose new statistical approaches to the uncertainty estimation problem by employing kernel density forecast (KDF) methods. We use two estimators in both offline and time-adaptive modes, namely, the Nadaraya-Watson (NW) and Quantilecopula (QC) estimators. We conduct detailed tests of the new approaches using QR as a benchmark. One of the major issues in wind power generation are sudden and large changes of wind power output over a short period of time, namely ramping events. In Chapter 4, we perform a comparative study of existing definitions and methodologies for ramp forecasting. We also introduce a new probabilistic method for ramp event detection. The method starts with a stochastic algorithm that generates wind power scenarios, which are passed through a high-pass filter for ramp detection and estimation of the likelihood of ramp events to happen. The report is organized as follows: Chapter 2 presents the results of the application of ITL training criteria to deterministic WPF; Chapter 3 reports the study on probabilistic WPF, including new contributions to wind power uncertainty forecasting; Chapter 4 presents a new method to predict and visualize ramp events, comparing it with state-of-the-art methodologies; Chapter 5 briefly summarizes the main findings and contributions of this report.« less

Analysis of regression methods for solar activity forecasting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lundquist, C. A.; Vaughan, W. W.

1979-01-01

The paper deals with the potential use of the most recent solar data to project trends in the next few years. Assuming that a mode of solar influence on weather can be identified, advantageous use of that knowledge presumably depends on estimating future solar activity. A frequently used technique for solar cycle predictions is a linear regression procedure along the lines formulated by McNish and Lincoln (1949). The paper presents a sensitivity analysis of the behavior of such regression methods relative to the following aspects: cycle minimum, time into cycle, composition of historical data base, and unnormalized vs. normalized solar cycle data. Comparative solar cycle forecasts for several past cycles are presented as to these aspects of the input data. Implications for the current cycle, No. 21, are also given.

Worldwide transportation/energy demand, 1975-2000. Revised Variflex model projections

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ayres, R.U.; Ayres, L.W.

1980-03-01

The salient features of the transportation-energy relationships that characterize the world of 1975 are reviewed, and worldwide (34 countries) long-range transportation demand by mode to the year 2000 is reviewed. A worldwide model is used to estimate future energy demand for transportation. Projections made by the forecasting model indicate that in the year 2000, every region will be more dependent on petroleum for the transportation sector than it was in 1975. This report is intended to highlight certain trends and to suggest areas for further investigation. Forecast methodology and model output are described in detail in the appendices. The reportmore » is one of a series addressing transportation energy consumption; it supplants and replaces an earlier version published in October 1978 (ORNL/Sub-78/13536/1).« less

Weather Research and Forecasting Model Sensitivity Comparisons for Warm Season Convective Initiation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Watson, Leela R.; Hoeth, Brian; Blottman, Peter F.

2007-01-01

Mesoscale weather conditions can significantly affect the space launch and landing operations at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). During the summer months, land-sea interactions that occur across KSC and CCAFS lead to the formation of a sea breeze, which can then spawn deep convection. These convective processes often last 60 minutes or less and pose a significant challenge to the forecasters at the National Weather Service (NWS) Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG). The main challenge is that a "GO" forecast for thunderstorms and precipitation at the Shuttle Landing Facility is required at the 90 minute deorbit decision for End Of Mission (EOM) and at the 30 minute Return To Launch Site (RTLS) decision. Convective initiation, timing, and mode also present a forecast challenge for the NWS in Melbourne, FL (MLB). The NWS MLB issues such tactical forecast information as Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts (TAF5), Spot Forecasts for fire weather and hazardous materials incident support, and severe/hazardous weather Watches, Warnings, and Advisories. Lastly, these forecasting challenges can also affect the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS), which provides comprehensive weather forecasts for shuttle launch, as well as ground operations, at KSC and CCAFS. The need for accurate mesoscale model forecasts to aid in their decision making is crucial. This study specifically addresses the skill of different model configurations in forecasting warm season convective initiation. Numerous factors influence the development of convection over the Florida peninsula. These factors include sea breezes, river and lake breezes, the prevailing low-level flow, and convergent flow due to convex coastlines that enhance the sea breeze. The interaction of these processes produces the warm season convective patterns seen over the Florida peninsula. However, warm season convection remains one of the most poorly forecast meteorological parameters. To determine which configuration options are best to address this specific forecast concern, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, which has two dynamical cores - the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) and the Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM) was employed. In addition to the two dynamical cores, there are also two options for a "hot-start" initialization of the WRF model - the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS; McGinley 1995) and the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS; Brewster 1996). Both LAPS and ADAS are 3- dimensional weather analysis systems that integrate multiple meteorological data sources into one consistent analysis over the user's domain of interest. This allows mesoscale models to benefit from the addition of highresolution data sources. Having a series of initialization options and WRF cores, as well as many options within each core, provides SMG and MLB with considerable flexibility as well as challenges. It is the goal of this study to assess the different configurations available and to determine which configuration will best predict warm season convective initiation.

CMB Polarization B-mode Delensing with SPTpol and Herschel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manzotti, A.; Story, K. T.; Wu, W. L. K.; Austermann, J. E.; Beall, J. A.; Bender, A. N.; Benson, B. A.; Bleem, L. E.; Bock, J. J.; Carlstrom, J. E.; Chang, C. L.; Chiang, H. C.; Cho, H.-M.; Citron, R.; Conley, A.; Crawford, T. M.; Crites, A. T.; de Haan, T.; Dobbs, M. A.; Dodelson, S.; Everett, W.; Gallicchio, J.; George, E. M.; Gilbert, A.; Halverson, N. W.; Harrington, N.; Henning, J. W.; Hilton, G. C.; Holder, G. P.; Holzapfel, W. L.; Hoover, S.; Hou, Z.; Hrubes, J. D.; Huang, N.; Hubmayr, J.; Irwin, K. D.; Keisler, R.; Knox, L.; Lee, A. T.; Leitch, E. M.; Li, D.; McMahon, J. J.; Meyer, S. S.; Mocanu, L. M.; Natoli, T.; Nibarger, J. P.; Novosad, V.; Padin, S.; Pryke, C.; Reichardt, C. L.; Ruhl, J. E.; Saliwanchik, B. R.; Sayre, J. T.; Schaffer, K. K.; Smecher, G.; Stark, A. A.; Vanderlinde, K.; Vieira, J. D.; Viero, M. P.; Wang, G.; Whitehorn, N.; Yefremenko, V.; Zemcov, M.

2017-09-01

We present a demonstration of delensing the observed cosmic microwave background (CMB) B-mode polarization anisotropy. This process of reducing the gravitational-lensing-generated B-mode component will become increasingly important for improving searches for the B modes produced by primordial gravitational waves. In this work, we delens B-mode maps constructed from multi-frequency SPTpol observations of a 90 deg2 patch of sky by subtracting a B-mode template constructed from two inputs: SPTpol E-mode maps and a lensing potential map estimated from the Herschel 500 μm map of the cosmic infrared background. We find that our delensing procedure reduces the measured B-mode power spectrum by 28% in the multipole range 300< {\\ell }< 2300; this is shown to be consistent with expectations from simulations and to be robust against systematics. The null hypothesis of no delensing is rejected at 6.9σ . Furthermore, we build and use a suite of realistic simulations to study the general properties of the delensing process and find that the delensing efficiency achieved in this work is limited primarily by the noise in the lensing potential map. We demonstrate the importance of including realistic experimental non-idealities in the delensing forecasts used to inform instrument and survey-strategy planning of upcoming lower-noise experiments, such as CMB-S4.

Prediction of Significant Wave Heights in the Tropics at Sub-seasonal Time Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kinter, J. L.; Shukla, R. P.; Shin, C. S.

2017-12-01

Skillfully predicting the 14-day mean significant wave height (SWH) forecasts at 3 weeks lead-time over the Western Pacific and Indian Oceans has been demonstrated using the WAVEWATCH-3 (WW3) model coupled to a modified version of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2). In this paper, we present results on the effect of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) events and El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on such predictions. Forecasts initialized with multiple ocean analyses in both January and May for 1979-2008 are evaluated. A significant anomaly correlation of predicted and observed SWH anomalies (SWHA) at 3 weeks lead-time is found over portions of the domain in both January and May cases. The model successfully predicts almost all the important features of the observed SWHA during El Niño events in January, including negative SWHA in the central Indian Ocean and northern western tropical Pacific, and positive SWHA over the southern Ocean and western Pacific. The model also reproduces the spatial pattern of the inverse relationship between SWHA and sea level pressure anomalies during both composite El Niño and La Niña events at 3 weeks lead-time. The model successfully predicts the sign and magnitude of SWHA in May over the Bay of Bengal and South China Sea in composites of phases 2 and 6 of MJO. The observed leading mode of SWHA in May and the third mode of SWHA in January are influenced by the combined effects of MJO and ENSO. Analysis of the mechanisms for these relationships is described.

Evaluation of Regional Extended-Range Prediction for Tropical Waves Using COAMPS®

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hong, X.; Reynolds, C. A.; Doyle, J. D.; May, P. W.; Chen, S.; Flatau, M. K.; O'Neill, L. W.

2014-12-01

The Navy's Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS1) in a two-way coupled mode is used for two-month regional extended-range prediction for the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and Tropical Cyclone 05 (TC05) that occurred during the DYNAMO period from November to December 2011. Verification and statistics from two experiments with 45-km and 27-km horizontal resolutions indicate that 27-km run provides a better representation of the three MJO events that occurred during this 2-month period, including the two convectively-coupled Kelvin waves associated with the second MJO event as observed. The 27-km run also significantly reduces forecast error after 15-days, reaching a maximum bias reduction of 89% in the third 15-day period due to the well represented MJO propagation over the Maritime Continent. Correlations between the model forecasts and observations or ECMWF analyses show that the MJO suppressed period is more difficult to predict than the active period. In addition, correlation coefficients for cloud liquid water path (CLWP) and precipitation are relatively low for both cases compared to other variables. The study suggests that a good simulation of TC05 and a good simulation of the Kelvin waves and westerly wind bursts are linked. Further research is needed to investigate the capability in regional extended-range forecasts when the lateral boundary conditions are provided from a long-term global forecast to allow for an assessment of potential operational forecast skill. _____________________________________________________ 1COAMPS is a registered trademark of U.S. Naval Research Laboratory

Forecasting Propagation and Evolution of CMEs in an Operational Setting: What Has Been Learned

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zheng, Yihua; Macneice, Peter; Odstrcil, Dusan; Mays, M. L.; Rastaetter, Lutz; Pulkkinen, Antti; Taktakishvili, Aleksandre; Hesse, Michael; Kuznetsova, M. Masha; Lee, Hyesook;

Real-time projections of cholera outbreaks through data assimilation and rainfall forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pasetto, Damiano; Finger, Flavio; Rinaldo, Andrea; Bertuzzo, Enrico

2017-10-01

Although treatment for cholera is well-known and cheap, outbreaks in epidemic regions still exact high death tolls mostly due to the unpreparedness of health care infrastructures to face unforeseen emergencies. In this context, mathematical models for the prediction of the evolution of an ongoing outbreak are of paramount importance. Here, we test a real-time forecasting framework that readily integrates new information as soon as available and periodically issues an updated forecast. The spread of cholera is modeled by a spatially-explicit scheme that accounts for the dynamics of susceptible, infected and recovered individuals hosted in different local communities connected through hydrologic and human mobility networks. The framework presents two major innovations for cholera modeling: the use of a data assimilation technique, specifically an ensemble Kalman filter, to update both state variables and parameters based on the observations, and the use of rainfall forecasts to force the model. The exercise of simulating the state of the system and the predictive capabilities of the novel tools, set at the initial phase of the 2010 Haitian cholera outbreak using only information that was available at that time, serves as a benchmark. Our results suggest that the assimilation procedure with the sequential update of the parameters outperforms calibration schemes based on Markov chain Monte Carlo. Moreover, in a forecasting mode the model usefully predicts the spatial incidence of cholera at least one month ahead. The performance decreases for longer time horizons yet allowing sufficient time to plan for deployment of medical supplies and staff, and to evaluate alternative strategies of emergency management.

Forecasting propagation and evolution of CMEs in an operational setting: What has been learned

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Yihua; Macneice, Peter; Odstrcil, Dusan; Mays, M. L.; Rastaetter, Lutz; Pulkkinen, Antti; Taktakishvili, Aleksandre; Hesse, Michael; Masha Kuznetsova, M.; Lee, Hyesook; Chulaki, Anna

2013-10-01

of the major types of solar eruption, coronal mass ejections (CMEs) not only impact space weather, but also can have significant societal consequences. CMEs cause intense geomagnetic storms and drive fast mode shocks that accelerate charged particles, potentially resulting in enhanced radiation levels both in ions and electrons. Human and technological assets in space can be endangered as a result. CMEs are also the major contributor to generating large amplitude Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GICs), which are a source of concern for power grid safety. Due to their space weather significance, forecasting the evolution and impacts of CMEs has become a much desired capability for space weather operations worldwide. Based on our operational experience at Space Weather Research Center at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov), we present here some of the insights gained about accurately predicting CME impacts, particularly in relation to space weather operations. These include: 1. The need to maximize information to get an accurate handle of three-dimensional (3-D) CME kinetic parameters and therefore improve CME forecast; 2. The potential use of CME simulation results for qualitative prediction of regions of space where solar energetic particles (SEPs) may be found; 3. The need to include all CMEs occurring within a 24 h period for a better representation of the CME interactions; 4. Various other important parameters in forecasting CME evolution in interplanetary space, with special emphasis on the CME propagation direction. It is noted that a future direction for our CME forecasting is to employ the ensemble modeling approach.

Evaluating the impact of AMDAR data quality control in China on the short-range convection forecasts using the WRF model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xiaofeng; Jiang, Qin; Zhang, Lei

2016-04-01

A quality control system for the Aircraft Meteorological Data Relay (AMDAR) data has been implemented in China. This system is an extension to the AMDAR quality control system used at the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction. We present a study in which the characteristics of each AMDAR data quality type were examined and the impact of the AMDAR data quality system on short-range convective weather forecasts using the WRF model was investigated. The main results obtained from this study are as follows. (1) The hourly rejection rate of AMDAR data during 2014 was 5.79%, and most of the rejections happened in Near Duplicate Check. (2) There was a significant diurnal variation for both quantity and quality of AMDAR data. Duplicated reports increased with the increase of data quantity, while suspicious and disorderly reports decreased with the increase of data quantity. (3) The characteristics of the data quality were different in each model layer, with the quality problems occurring mainly at the surface as well as at the height where the power or the flight mode of the aircraft underwent adjustment. (4) Assimilating the AMDAR data improved the forecast accuracy, particularly over the region where strong convection occurred. (5) Significant improvements made by assimilating AMDAR data were found after six hours into the model forecast. The conclusion from this study is that the newly implemented AMDAR data quality system can help improve the accuracy of short-range convection forecasts using the WRF model.

Forecasting eruption size: what we know, what we don't know

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papale, Paolo

2017-04-01

Any eruption forecast includes an evaluation of the expected size of the forthcoming eruption, usually expressed as the probability associated to given size classes. Such evaluation is mostly based on the previous volcanic history at the specific volcano, or it is referred to a broader class of volcanoes constituting "analogues" of the one under specific consideration. In any case, use of knowledge from past eruptions implies considering the completeness of the reference catalogue, and most importantly, the existence of systematic biases in the catalogue, that may affect probability estimates and translate into biased volcanic hazard forecasts. An analysis of existing catalogues, with major reference to the catalogue from the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program, suggests that systematic biases largely dominate at global, regional and local scale: volcanic histories reconstructed at individual volcanoes, often used as a reference for volcanic hazard forecasts, are the result of systematic loss of information with time and poor sample representativeness. That situation strictly requires the use of techniques to complete existing catalogues, as well as careful consideration of the uncertainties deriving from inadequate knowledge and model-dependent data elaboration. A reconstructed global eruption size distribution, obtained by merging information from different existing catalogues, shows a mode in the VEI 1-2 range, <0.1% incidence of eruptions with VEI 7 or larger, and substantial uncertainties associated with individual VEI frequencies. Even larger uncertainties are expected to derive from application to individual volcanoes or classes of analogue volcanoes, suggesting large to very large uncertainties associated to volcanic hazard forecasts virtually at any individual volcano worldwide.

Synoptic Regulation of The 3 May 1999 Oklahoma Tornado Outbreak

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schultz, D. M.; Roebber, P. J.; Romero, R.

Despite the relatively successful long-lead-time forecasts of the storms during the 3 May 1999 tornadic outbreak in Oklahoma and Kansas, forecasters were unable to predict with confidence details concerning convective initiation and convective mode. The forecasters identified three synoptic processes they were monitoring for clues as to how the event would unfold. These elements were (a) the absence of strong surface convergence along a dryline in western Oklahoma and the Texas panhandle, (b) the presence of a cirrus shield that was hypothesized to limit surface heating, and (c) the arrival into Oklahoma of an upper-level wind-speed maximum (associated with the so- called southern PV anomaly) that was responsible for favorable synoptic-scale ascent and the cirrus shield. The Pennsylvania State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model Version 5 (MM5) is used in forecast mode (using the operational AVN run data to provide initial and lateral boundary conditions) to explore the sen- sitivity of the outbreak to these features using simulations down to 2-km horizontal grid spacing. A 30-h control simulation is compared to the available observations and captures important qualitative characteristics of the event, including convective initi- ation east of the dryline and organization of mesoscale convective systems into long lived, long-track supercells. Additional simulations in which the initial strength of the southern PV anomaly is altered suggest that synoptic regulation of the 3 May 1999 event was imposed by the effects of the southern PV anomaly. The model results in- dicate that: (1) convective initiation in the weakly forced environment was achieved through modification of the existing cap through both surface heating and synoptic- scale ascent associated with the southern PV anomaly; (2) supercellular organization was supported regardless of the strength of the southern PV anomaly, although weak- to-moderate forcing from this feature was most conducive to the production of long lived supercells and strong forcing resulted in a trend toward linear mesoscale convec- tive systems; (3) the cirrus shield was important in limiting development of convection and reducing competition between storms.

Iowa Flood Information System: Towards Integrated Data Management, Analysis and Visualization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demir, I.; Krajewski, W. F.; Goska, R.; Mantilla, R.; Weber, L. J.; Young, N.

2012-04-01

The Iowa Flood Information System (IFIS) is a web-based platform developed by the Iowa Flood Center (IFC) to provide access to flood inundation maps, real-time flood conditions, flood forecasts both short-term and seasonal, flood-related data, information and interactive visualizations for communities in Iowa. The key element of the system's architecture is the notion of community. Locations of the communities, those near streams and rivers, define basin boundaries. The IFIS provides community-centric watershed and river characteristics, weather (rainfall) conditions, and streamflow data and visualization tools. Interactive interfaces allow access to inundation maps for different stage and return period values, and flooding scenarios with contributions from multiple rivers. Real-time and historical data of water levels, gauge heights, and rainfall conditions are available in the IFIS by streaming data from automated IFC bridge sensors, USGS stream gauges, NEXRAD radars, and NWS forecasts. Simple 2D and 3D interactive visualizations in the IFIS make the data more understandable to general public. Users are able to filter data sources for their communities and selected rivers. The data and information on IFIS is also accessible through web services and mobile applications. The IFIS is optimized for various browsers and screen sizes to provide access through multiple platforms including tablets and mobile devices. The IFIS includes a rainfall-runoff forecast model to provide a five-day flood risk estimate for around 500 communities in Iowa. Multiple view modes in the IFIS accommodate different user types from general public to researchers and decision makers by providing different level of tools and details. River view mode allows users to visualize data from multiple IFC bridge sensors and USGS stream gauges to follow flooding condition along a river. The IFIS will help communities make better-informed decisions on the occurrence of floods, and will alert communities in advance to help minimize damage of floods. This presentation provides an overview and live demonstration of the tools and interfaces in the IFIS developed to date to provide a platform for one-stop access to flood related data, visualizations, flood conditions, and forecast.

Iowa Flood Information System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demir, I.; Krajewski, W. F.; Goska, R.; Mantilla, R.; Weber, L. J.; Young, N.

2011-12-01

The Iowa Flood Information System (IFIS) is a web-based platform developed by the Iowa Flood Center (IFC) to provide access to flood inundation maps, real-time flood conditions, flood forecasts both short-term and seasonal, flood-related data, information and interactive visualizations for communities in Iowa. The key element of the system's architecture is the notion of community. Locations of the communities, those near streams and rivers, define basin boundaries. The IFIS provides community-centric watershed and river characteristics, weather (rainfall) conditions, and streamflow data and visualization tools. Interactive interfaces allow access to inundation maps for different stage and return period values, and flooding scenarios with contributions from multiple rivers. Real-time and historical data of water levels, gauge heights, and rainfall conditions are available in the IFIS by streaming data from automated IFC bridge sensors, USGS stream gauges, NEXRAD radars, and NWS forecasts. Simple 2D and 3D interactive visualizations in the IFIS make the data more understandable to general public. Users are able to filter data sources for their communities and selected rivers. The data and information on IFIS is also accessible through web services and mobile applications. The IFIS is optimized for various browsers and screen sizes to provide access through multiple platforms including tablets and mobile devices. The IFIS includes a rainfall-runoff forecast model to provide a five-day flood risk estimate for around 500 communities in Iowa. Multiple view modes in the IFIS accommodate different user types from general public to researchers and decision makers by providing different level of tools and details. River view mode allows users to visualize data from multiple IFC bridge sensors and USGS stream gauges to follow flooding condition along a river. The IFIS will help communities make better-informed decisions on the occurrence of floods, and will alert communities in advance to help minimize damage of floods. This presentation provides an overview of the tools and interfaces in the IFIS developed to date to provide a platform for one-stop access to flood related data, visualizations, flood conditions, and forecast.

Flood Risk Management in Iowa through an Integrated Flood Information System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demir, Ibrahim; Krajewski, Witold

2013-04-01

The Iowa Flood Information System (IFIS) is a web-based platform developed by the Iowa Flood Center (IFC) to provide access to flood inundation maps, real-time flood conditions, flood forecasts both short-term and seasonal, flood-related data, information and interactive visualizations for communities in Iowa. The key element of the system's architecture is the notion of community. Locations of the communities, those near streams and rivers, define basin boundaries. The IFIS provides community-centric watershed and river characteristics, weather (rainfall) conditions, and streamflow data and visualization tools. Interactive interfaces allow access to inundation maps for different stage and return period values, and flooding scenarios with contributions from multiple rivers. Real-time and historical data of water levels, gauge heights, and rainfall conditions are available in the IFIS by streaming data from automated IFC bridge sensors, USGS stream gauges, NEXRAD radars, and NWS forecasts. Simple 2D and 3D interactive visualizations in the IFIS make the data more understandable to general public. Users are able to filter data sources for their communities and selected rivers. The data and information on IFIS is also accessible through web services and mobile applications. The IFIS is optimized for various browsers and screen sizes to provide access through multiple platforms including tablets and mobile devices. The IFIS includes a rainfall-runoff forecast model to provide a five-day flood risk estimate for around 1100 communities in Iowa. Multiple view modes in the IFIS accommodate different user types from general public to researchers and decision makers by providing different level of tools and details. River view mode allows users to visualize data from multiple IFC bridge sensors and USGS stream gauges to follow flooding condition along a river. The IFIS will help communities make better-informed decisions on the occurrence of floods, and will alert communities in advance to help minimize damage of floods. This presentation provides an overview and live demonstration of the tools and interfaces in the IFIS developed to date to provide a platform for one-stop access to flood related data, visualizations, flood conditions, and forecast.

A multimodel approach to interannual and seasonal prediction of Danube discharge anomalies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rimbu, Norel; Ionita, Monica; Patrut, Simona; Dima, Mihai

2010-05-01

Interannual and seasonal predictability of Danube river discharge is investigated using three model types: 1) time series models 2) linear regression models of discharge with large-scale climate mode indices and 3) models based on stable teleconnections. All models are calibrated using discharge and climatic data for the period 1901-1977 and validated for the period 1978-2008 . Various time series models, like autoregressive (AR), moving average (MA), autoregressive and moving average (ARMA) or singular spectrum analysis and autoregressive moving average (SSA+ARMA) models have been calibrated and their skills evaluated. The best results were obtained using SSA+ARMA models. SSA+ARMA models proved to have the highest forecast skill also for other European rivers (Gamiz-Fortis et al. 2008). Multiple linear regression models using large-scale climatic mode indices as predictors have a higher forecast skill than the time series models. The best predictors for Danube discharge are the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the East Atlantic/Western Russia patterns during winter and spring. Other patterns, like Polar/Eurasian or Tropical Northern Hemisphere (TNH) are good predictors for summer and autumn discharge. Based on stable teleconnection approach (Ionita et al. 2008) we construct prediction models through a combination of sea surface temperature (SST), temperature (T) and precipitation (PP) from the regions where discharge and SST, T and PP variations are stable correlated. Forecast skills of these models are higher than forecast skills of the time series and multiple regression models. The models calibrated and validated in our study can be used for operational prediction of interannual and seasonal Danube discharge anomalies. References Gamiz-Fortis, S., D. Pozo-Vazquez, R.M. Trigo, and Y. Castro-Diez, Quantifying the predictability of winter river flow in Iberia. Part I: intearannual predictability. J. Climate, 2484-2501, 2008. Gamiz-Fortis, S., D. Pozo-Vazquez, R.M. Trigo, and Y. Castro-Diez, Quantifying the predictability of winter river flow in Iberia. Part II: seasonal predictability. J. Climate, 2503-2518, 2008. Ionita, M., G. Lohmann, and N. Rimbu, Prediction of spring Elbe river discharge based on stable teleconnections with global temperature and precipitation. J. Climate. 6215-6226, 2008.

Solar particle event predictions for manned Mars missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Heckman, Gary

1986-01-01

Manned space missions to Mars require consideration of the effects of high radiation doses produced by solar particle events (SPE). Without some provision for protection, the radiation doses from such events can exceed standards for maximum exposure and may be life threatening. Several alternative ways of providing protection require a capability for predicting SPE in time to take some protective actions. The SPE may occur at any time during the eleven year solar cycle so that two year missions cannot be scheduled to insure avoiding them although they are less likely to occur at solar minimum. The present forecasts are sufficiently accurate to use for setting alert modes but are not accurate enough to make yes/no decisions that have major mission operational impacts. Forecasts made for one to two year periods can only be done as probabilistic forecasts where there is a chance of SPE occurring. These are current capabilities but are not likely to change significantly by the year 2000 with the exception of some improvement in the one to ten day forecasts. The effects of SPE are concentrated in solar longitudes near where their parent solar flares occur, which will require a manned Mars mission to carry its own small solar telescope to monitor the development of potentially dangerous solar activity. The preferred telescope complement includes a solar X-ray imager, a hydrogen-alpha scanner, and a solar magnetograph.

The State Secrets Privilege and Other Limits on Litigation Involving Classified Information

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-05-28

Privilege And Separation Of Powers , 75 FORDHAM L. REV. 1931, 1935 (Mar. 2007). 2 Editorial, Securing Lawsuits, WASH. POST, May 11, 2009, at A16...the Supreme Court invalidated a legislative enactment that required federal courts to reopen final decisions as a violation of the separation of powers principle...95 It might be argued that the retroactivity provision in H.R. 984 also reopens final judgments in violation of the separation of powers principle

In Search of Command and Staff Doctrine.

DTIC Science & Technology

1987-05-01

authority, resposibility , and accountability." 21. In both Article 90 and Article 92 of the Unior Code, the orders of ccmders are given a special...the dates the orders are published, i.e., retroactive and prospective appointments. Hovever, there is presently no procedure for self -terminating...with your- self !" S 137 U. S. Grant, Personal Memoirs 343 (Da Capo Press ed. 1982). See also Op. JAGAF 1978/62, June 6, 1978: "Giving Air Force officers

’Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell’ Policy: Is It Time to Talk?

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-03-26

personnel, it would merely be another form of discrimination . Gays must be extended the same full rights and privileges governing relationships, housing...sexuality. As an editor for The New Republic, Andrew Sullivan points out, “gay people are not uniformly discriminated against; openly gay people are.”94...previously denied, retroactive promotions, and financial settlements for persons claiming past discrimination .”99 President Obama indicated his intent to

Investigation into the Impacts of Migration to Emergent NSA Suite B Encryption Standards

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-06-01

detailed statistical information on the difference between the 1024-bit keys and 2048-bit keys. D. ENCRYPTION TAXONOMY The modern field of...because they had already published their ideas globally and most 6 countries bar retroactive patenting of open source concepts. In September 2000, the...order of p operations in a finite field of numbers as large as p itself. If exhaustive search were the best attack on these systems, then bit

REM sleep rescues learning from interference

PubMed Central

McDevitt, Elizabeth A.; Duggan, Katherine A.; Mednick, Sara C.

2015-01-01

Classical human memory studies investigating the acquisition of temporally-linked events have found that the memories for two events will interfere with each other and cause forgetting (i.e., interference; Wixted, 2004). Importantly, sleep helps consolidate memories and protect them from subsequent interference (Ellenbogen, Hulbert, Stickgold, Dinges, & Thompson-Schill, 2006). We asked whether sleep can also repair memories that have already been damaged by interference. Using a perceptual learning paradigm, we induced interference either before or after a consolidation period. We varied brain states during consolidation by comparing active wake, quiet wake, and naps with either non-rapid eye movement sleep (NREM), or both NREM and REM sleep. When interference occurred after consolidation, sleep and wake both produced learning. However, interference prior to consolidation impaired memory, with retroactive interference showing more disruption than proactive interference. Sleep rescued learning damaged by interference. Critically, only naps that contained REM sleep were able to rescue learning that was highly disrupted by retroactive interference. Furthermore, the magnitude of rescued learning was correlated with the amount of REM sleep. We demonstrate the first evidence of a process by which the brain can rescue and consolidate memories damaged by interference, and that this process requires REM sleep. We explain these results within a theoretical model that considers how interference during encoding interacts with consolidation processes to predict which memories are retained or lost. PMID:25498222

Prevention of medication errors: detection and audit.

PubMed

Montesi, Germana; Lechi, Alessandro

2009-06-01

1. Medication errors have important implications for patient safety, and their identification is a main target in improving clinical practice errors, in order to prevent adverse events. 2. Error detection is the first crucial step. Approaches to this are likely to be different in research and routine care, and the most suitable must be chosen according to the setting. 3. The major methods for detecting medication errors and associated adverse drug-related events are chart review, computerized monitoring, administrative databases, and claims data, using direct observation, incident reporting, and patient monitoring. All of these methods have both advantages and limitations. 4. Reporting discloses medication errors, can trigger warnings, and encourages the diffusion of a culture of safe practice. Combining and comparing data from various and encourages the diffusion of a culture of safe practice sources increases the reliability of the system. 5. Error prevention can be planned by means of retroactive and proactive tools, such as audit and Failure Mode, Effect, and Criticality Analysis (FMECA). Audit is also an educational activity, which promotes high-quality care; it should be carried out regularly. In an audit cycle we can compare what is actually done against reference standards and put in place corrective actions to improve the performances of individuals and systems. 6. Patient safety must be the first aim in every setting, in order to build safer systems, learning from errors and reducing the human and fiscal costs.

Short-Term Monitoring Results for Advanced New Construction Test House - Roseville, California

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stecher, D.; Brozyna, K.; Imm, C.

2013-09-01

A builder (K. Hovnanian® Homes®), design consultant, and trades collaborated to identify a systems integrated measures package for a 2,253-ft² slab-on-grade ranch house to achieve a modeled energy savings of 60% with respect to the Building America House Simulation Protocols, while minimizing construction costs and without requiring changes to the drawing that would impact local code or zoning approval. The key building improvements were applying R-10 insulation to the slab edge, increasing exterior wall cavity insulation from R-13 to R-15, and increasing attic insulation from R-30 to R-38. Also, the air handling unit was relocated from the attic to conditionedmore » space, and ductwork was relocated along the attic floor with an insulated bulkhead built above it. Short-term testing results showed that duct air leakage was low due to short duct runs and the placement of ductwork in conditioned space. However, during commissioning, the lack of access for servicing the ductwork and dampers in the bulkhead area prevented retroactive balancing of individual branches, resulting in significant differences between specified and measured airflow values for some duct runs. Thermal imaging results performed on the house when operating in both heating and cooling modes validated historic stratification issues of ceiling supply registers with high supply air temperatures. Long-term monitoring results will be detailed in a future report.« less

A High-Resolution WRF Tropical Channel Simulation Driven by a Global Reanalysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holland, G.; Leung, L.; Kuo, Y.; Hurrell, J.

2006-12-01

Since 2003, NCAR has invested in the development and application of Nested Regional Climate Model (NRCM) based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the Community Climate System Model, as a key component of the Prediction Across Scales Initiative. A prototype tropical channel model has been developed to investigate scale interactions and the influence of tropical convection on large scale circulation and tropical modes. The model was developed based on the NCAR Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF), configured as a tropical channel between 30 ° S and 45 ° N, wide enough to allow teleconnection effects over the mid-latitudes. Compared to the limited area domain that WRF is typically applied over, the channel mode alleviates issues with reflection of tropical modes that could result from imposing east/west boundaries. Using a large amount of available computing resources on a supercomputer (Blue Vista) during its bedding in period, a simulation has been completed with the tropical channel applied at 36 km horizontal resolution for 5 years from 1996 to 2000, with large scale circulation provided by the NCEP/NCAR global reanalysis at the north/south boundaries. Shorter simulations of 2 years and 6 months have also been performed to include two-way nests at 12 km and 4 km resolution, respectively, over the western Pacific warm pool, to explicitly resolve tropical convection in the Maritime Continent. The simulations realistically captured the large-scale circulation including the trade winds over the tropical Pacific and Atlantic, the Australian and Asian monsoon circulation, and hurricane statistics. Preliminary analysis and evaluation of the simulations will be presented.

High-resolution dynamical downscaling of re-analysis data over the Kerguelen Islands using the WRF model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fonseca, Ricardo; Martín-Torres, Javier

2018-03-01

We have used the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to simulate the climate of the Kerguelen Islands (49° S, 69° E) and investigate its inter-annual variability. Here, we have dynamically downscaled 30 years of the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) over these islands at 3-km horizontal resolution. The model output is found to agree well with the station and radiosonde data at the Port-aux-Français station, the only location in the islands for which observational data is available. An analysis of the seasonal mean WRF data showed a general increase in precipitation and decrease in temperature with elevation. The largest seasonal rainfall amounts occur at the highest elevations of the Cook Ice Cap in winter where the summer mean temperature is around 0 °C. Five modes of variability are considered: conventional and Modoki El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), Subtropical IOD (SIOD) and Southern Annular Mode (SAM). It is concluded that a key mechanism by which these modes impact the local climate is through interaction with the diurnal cycle in particular in the summer season when it has a larger magnitude. One of the most affected regions is the area just to the east of the Cook Ice Cap extending into the lower elevations between the Gallieni and Courbet Peninsulas. The WRF simulation shows that despite the small annual variability, the atmospheric flow in the Kerguelen Islands is rather complex which may also be the case for the other islands located in the Southern Hemisphere at similar latitudes.

ENSO Bred Vectors in Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere General Circulation Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yang, S. C.; Cai, Ming; Kalnay, E.; Rienecker, M.; Yuan, G.; Toth, ZA.

2004-01-01

The breeding method has been implemented in the NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP) Coupled General Circulation Model (CGCM) with the goal of improving operational seasonal to interannual climate predictions through ensemble forecasting and data assimilation. The coupled instability as cap'tured by the breeding method is the first attempt to isolate the evolving ENSO instability and its corresponding global atmospheric response in a fully coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM. Our results show that the growth rate of the coupled bred vectors (BV) peaks at about 3 months before a background ENSO event. The dominant growing BV modes are reminiscent of the background ENSO anomalies and show a strong tropical response with wind/SST/thermocline interrelated in a manner similar to the background ENSO mode. They exhibit larger amplitudes in the eastern tropical Pacific, reflecting the natural dynamical sensitivity associated with the presence of the shallow thermocline. Moreover, the extratropical perturbations associated with these coupled BV modes reveal the variations related to the atmospheric teleconnection patterns associated with background ENSO variability, e.g. over the North Pacific and North America. A similar experiment was carried out with the NCEP/CFS03 CGCM. Comparisons between bred vectors from the NSIPP CGCM and NCEP/CFS03 CGCM demonstrate the robustness of the results. Our results strongly suggest that the breeding method can serve as a natural filter to identify the slowly varying, coupled instabilities in a coupled GCM, which can be used to construct ensemble perturbations for ensemble forecasts and to estimate the coupled background error covariance for coupled data assimilation.

Enhancing our Understanding of Snowfall Modes with Ground-Based Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pettersen, C.; Kulie, M.; Petersen, W. A.; Bliven, L. F.; Wood, N.

2016-12-01

Snowfall can be broadly categorized into deep and shallow events based on the vertical distribution of the precipitating ice. Remotely sensed data refine these precipitation categories and aid in discerning the underlying macro- and microphysical mechanisms. The unique patterns in the remotely sensed instruments observations can potentially connect distinct modes of snowfall to specific processes. Though satellites can observe and recognize these patterns in snowfall, these measurements are limited - particularly in cases of shallow and light precipitation, as the snow may be too close to the surface or below the detection limits of the instrumentation. By enhancing satellite measurements with ground-based instrumentation, whether with limited-term field campaigns or long-term strategic sites, we can further our understanding and assumptions about different snowfall modes and how they are measured from spaceborne instruments. Presented are three years of data from a ground-based instrument suite consisting of a MicroRain Radar (MRR; optimized for snow events) and a Precipitation Imaging Package (PIP). These instruments are located at the Marquette, Michigan National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office to: a) use coincident meteorological measurements and observations to enhance our understanding of the thermodynamic drivers and b) showcase these instruments in an operational setting to enhance forecasts of shallow snow events. Three winters of MRR and PIP measurements are partitioned, based on meteorological surface observations, into two-dimensional histograms of reflectivity and particle size distribution data. These statistics improve our interpretation of deep versus shallow precipitation. Additionally, these statistical techniques are applied to similar datasets from Global Precipitation Measurement field campaigns for further insight into cloud and precipitation macro- and microphysical processes.

MODSNOW-Tool: an operational tool for daily snow cover monitoring using MODIS data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gafurov, Abror; Lüdtke, Stefan; Unger-Shayesteh, Katy; Vorogushyn, Sergiy; Schöne, Tilo; Schmidt, Sebastian; Kalashnikova, Olga; Merz, Bruno

2017-04-01

Spatially distributed snow cover information in mountain areas is extremely important for water storage estimations, seasonal water availability forecasting, or the assessment of snow-related hazards (e.g. enhanced snow-melt following intensive rains, or avalanche events). Moreover, spatially distributed snow cover information can be used to calibrate and/or validate hydrological models. We present the MODSNOW-Tool - an operational monitoring tool offers a user-friendly application which can be used for catchment-based operational snow cover monitoring. The application automatically downloads and processes freely available daily Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) snow cover data. The MODSNOW-Tool uses a step-wise approach for cloud removal and delivers cloud-free snow cover maps for the selected river basins including basin specific snow cover extent statistics. The accuracy of cloud-eliminated MODSNOW snow cover maps was validated for 84 almost cloud-free days in the Karadarya river basin in Central Asia, and an average accuracy of 94 % was achieved. The MODSNOW-Tool can be used in operational and non-operational mode. In the operational mode, the tool is set up as a scheduled task on a local computer allowing automatic execution without user interaction and delivers snow cover maps on a daily basis. In the non-operational mode, the tool can be used to process historical time series of snow cover maps. The MODSNOW-Tool is currently implemented and in use at the national hydrometeorological services of four Central Asian states - Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan and used for seasonal water availability forecast.

Measuring The cmb Polarization At 94 GHz With The QUIET Pseudo-cL Pipeline

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buder, Immanuel; QUIET Collaboration

2012-01-01

The Q/U Imaging ExperimenT (QUIET) aims to limit or detect cosmic microwave background (CMB) B-mode polarization from inflation. This talk is part of a 3-talk series on QUIET. The previous talk describes the QUIET science and instrument. QUIET has two parallel analysis pipelines which are part of an effort to validate the analysis and confirm the result. In this talk, I will describe the analysis methods of one of these: the pseudo-Cl pipeline. Calibration, noise modeling, filtering, and data-selection choices are made following a blind-analysis strategy. Central to this strategy is a suite of 30 null tests, each motivated by a possible instrumental problem or systematic effect. The systematic errors are also evaluated through full-season simulations in the blind stage of the analysis before the result is known. The CMB power spectra are calculated using a pseudo-Cl cross-correlation technique which suppresses contamination and makes the result insensitive to noise bias. QUIET will detect the first three peaks of the even-parity (E-mode) spectrum at high significance. I will show forecasts of the systematic errors for these results and for the upper limit on B-mode polarization. The very low systematic errors in these forecasts show that the technology is ready to be applied in a more sensitive next-generation experiment. The next and final talk in this series covers the other parallel analysis pipeline, based on maximum likelihood methods. This work was supported by NSF and the Department of Education.

Impact of satellite-based data on FGGE general circulation statistics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Salstein, David A.; Rosen, Richard D.; Baker, Wayman E.; Kalnay, Eugenia

1987-01-01

The NASA Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres (GLA) analysis/forecast system was run in two different parallel modes in order to evaluate the influence that data from satellites and other FGGE observation platforms can have on analyses of large scale circulation; in the first mode, data from all observation systems were used, while in the second only conventional upper air and surface reports were used. The GLA model was also integrated for the same period without insertion of any data; an independent objective analysis based only on rawinsonde and pilot balloon data is also performed. A small decrease in the vigor of the general circulation is noted to follow from the inclusion of satellite observations.

Automated Identification of MHD Mode Bifurcation and Locking in Tokamaks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riquezes, J. D.; Sabbagh, S. A.; Park, Y. S.; Bell, R. E.; Morton, L. A.

2017-10-01

Disruption avoidance is critical in reactor-scale tokamaks such as ITER to maintain steady plasma operation and avoid damage to device components. A key physical event chain that leads to disruptions is the appearance of rotating MHD modes, their slowing by resonant field drag mechanisms, and their locking. An algorithm has been developed that automatically detects bifurcation of the mode toroidal rotation frequency due to loss of torque balance under resonant braking, and mode locking for a set of shots using spectral decomposition. The present research examines data from NSTX, NSTX-U and KSTAR plasmas which differ significantly in aspect ratio (ranging from A = 1.3 - 3.5). The research aims to examine and compare the effectiveness of different algorithms for toroidal mode number discrimination, such as phase matching and singular value decomposition approaches, and to examine potential differences related to machine aspect ratio (e.g. mode eigenfunction shape variation). Simple theoretical models will be compared to the dynamics found. Main goals are to detect or potentially forecast the event chain early during a discharge. This would serve as a cue to engage active mode control or a controlled plasma shutdown. Supported by US DOE Contracts DE-SC0016614 and DE-AC02-09CH11466.

Extended-Range Prediction with Low-Dimensional, Stochastic-Dynamic Models: A Data-driven Approach

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-09-30

statistically extratropical storms and extremes, and link these to LFV modes. Mingfang Ting, Yochanan Kushnir, Andrew W. Robertson, Lei Wang...forecast models, as well as in the understanding they have generated. Adam Sobel, Daehyun Kim and Shuguang Wang. Extratropical variability and...predictability. Determine the extent to which extratropical monthly and seasonal low-frequency variability (LFV, i.e. PNA, NAO, as well as other regional

Predictability and Coupled Dynamics of MJO During DYNAMO

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-09-30

1 DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Predictability and Coupled Dynamics of MJO During DYNAMO ...Model (LIM) for MJO predictions and apply it in retrospective cross-validated forecast mode to the DYNAMO time period. APPROACH We are working as...a team to study MJO dynamics and predictability using several models as team members of the ONR DRI associated with the DYNAMO experiment. This is a

Forecasting the Contribution of Polarized Extragalactic Radio Sources in CMB Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Puglisi, G.; Galluzzi, V.; Bonavera, L.; Gonzalez-Nuevo, J.; Lapi, A.; Massardi, M.; Perrotta, F.; Baccigalupi, C.; Celotti, A.; Danese, L.

2018-05-01

We combine the latest data sets obtained with different surveys to study the frequency dependence of polarized emission coming from extragalactic radio sources (ERS). We consider data over a very wide frequency range starting from 1.4 GHz up to 217 GHz. This range is particularly interesting since it overlaps the frequencies of the current and forthcoming cosmic microwave background (CMB) experiments. Current data suggest that at high radio frequencies (ν ≥ 20 GHz) the fractional polarization of ERS does not depend on the total flux density. Conversely, recent data sets indicate a moderate increase of polarization fraction as a function of frequency, physically motivated by the fact that Faraday depolarization is expected to be less relevant at high radio frequencies. We compute ERS number counts using updated models based on recent data, and we forecast the contribution of unresolved ERS in CMB polarization spectra. Given the expected sensitivities and the observational patch sizes of forthcoming CMB experiments, about ∼200 (up to ∼2000) polarized ERS are expected to be detected. Finally, we assess that polarized ERS can contaminate the cosmological B-mode polarization if the tensor-to-scalar ratio is <0.05 and they have to be robustly controlled to de-lens CMB B-modes at the arcminute angular scales.

Lightning-generated whistler waves observed by probes on the Communication/Navigation Outage Forecast System satellite at low latitudes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holzworth, R. H.; McCarthy, M. P.; Pfaff, R. F.; Jacobson, A. R.; Willcockson, W. L.; Rowland, D. E.

2011-06-01

Direct evidence is presented for a causal relationship between lightning and strong electric field transients inside equatorial ionospheric density depletions. In fact, these whistler mode plasma waves may be the dominant electric field signal within such depletions. Optical lightning data from the Communication/Navigation Outage Forecast System (C/NOFS) satellite and global lightning location information from the World Wide Lightning Location Network are presented as independent verification that these electric field transients are caused by lightning. The electric field instrument on C/NOFS routinely measures lightning-related electric field wave packets or sferics, associated with simultaneous measurements of optical flashes at all altitudes encountered by the satellite (401-867 km). Lightning-generated whistler waves have abundant access to the topside ionosphere, even close to the magnetic equator.

Lightning-Generated Whistler Waves Observed by Probes On The Communication/Navigation Outage Forecast System Satellite at Low Latitudes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Holzworth, R. H.; McCarthy, M. P.; Pfaff, R. F.; Jacobson, A. R.; Willcockson, W. L.; Rowland, D. E.

2011-01-01

Direct evidence is presented for a causal relationship between lightning and strong electric field transients inside equatorial ionospheric density depletions. In fact, these whistler mode plasma waves may be the dominant electric field signal within such depletions. Optical lightning data from the Communication/Navigation Outage Forecast System (C/NOFS) satellite and global lightning location information from the World Wide Lightning Location Network are presented as independent verification that these electric field transients are caused by lightning. The electric field instrument on C/NOFS routinely measures lightning ]related electric field wave packets or sferics, associated with simultaneous measurements of optical flashes at all altitudes encountered by the satellite (401.867 km). Lightning ]generated whistler waves have abundant access to the topside ionosphere, even close to the magnetic equator.

A study of application of remote sensing to river forecasting. Volume 2: Detailed technical report, NASA-IBM streamflow forecast model user's guide

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1975-01-01

The Model is described along with data preparation, determining model parameters, initializing and optimizing parameters (calibration) selecting control options and interpreting results. Some background information is included, and appendices contain a dictionary of variables, a source program listing, and flow charts. The model was operated on an IBM System/360 Model 44, using a model 2250 keyboard/graphics terminal for interactive operation. The model can be set up and operated in a batch processing mode on any System/360 or 370 that has the memory capacity. The model requires 210K bytes of core storage, and the optimization program, OPSET (which was used previous to but not in this study), requires 240K bytes. The data band for one small watershed requires approximately 32 tracks of disk storage.

Fitting dynamic models to the Geosat sea level observations in the tropical Pacific Ocean. I - A free wave model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fu, Lee-Lueng; Vazquez, Jorge; Perigaud, Claire

1991-01-01

Free, equatorially trapped sinusoidal wave solutions to a linear model on an equatorial beta plane are used to fit the Geosat altimetric sea level observations in the tropical Pacific Ocean. The Kalman filter technique is used to estimate the wave amplitude and phase from the data. The estimation is performed at each time step by combining the model forecast with the observation in an optimal fashion utilizing the respective error covariances. The model error covariance is determined such that the performance of the model forecast is optimized. It is found that the dominant observed features can be described qualitatively by basin-scale Kelvin waves and the first meridional-mode Rossby waves. Quantitatively, however, only 23 percent of the signal variance can be accounted for by this simple model.

The Cooperative VAS Program with the Marshall Space Flight Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Diak, George R.; Menzel, W. Paul

1988-01-01

Work was divided between the analysis/forecast model development and evaluation of the impact of satellite data in mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP), development of the Multispectral Atmospheric Mapping Sensor (MAMS), and other related research. The Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS) Synoptic Scale Model (SSM) has progressed from a relatively basic analysis/forecast system to a package which includes such features as nonlinear vertical mode initialization, comprehensive Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) physics, and the core of a fully four-dimensional data assimilation package. The MAMS effort has produced a calibrated visible and infrared sensor that produces imager at high spatial resolution. The MAMS was developed in order to study small scale atmospheric moisture variability, to monitor and classify clouds, and to investigate the role of surface characteristics in the production of clouds, precipitation, and severe storms.

Efficient Resources Provisioning Based on Load Forecasting in Cloud

PubMed Central

Hu, Rongdong; Jiang, Jingfei; Liu, Guangming; Wang, Lixin

2014-01-01

Cloud providers should ensure QoS while maximizing resources utilization. One optimal strategy is to timely allocate resources in a fine-grained mode according to application's actual resources demand. The necessary precondition of this strategy is obtaining future load information in advance. We propose a multi-step-ahead load forecasting method, KSwSVR, based on statistical learning theory which is suitable for the complex and dynamic characteristics of the cloud computing environment. It integrates an improved support vector regression algorithm and Kalman smoother. Public trace data taken from multitypes of resources were used to verify its prediction accuracy, stability, and adaptability, comparing with AR, BPNN, and standard SVR. Subsequently, based on the predicted results, a simple and efficient strategy is proposed for resource provisioning. CPU allocation experiment indicated it can effectively reduce resources consumption while meeting service level agreements requirements. PMID:24701160

Mode switching in volcanic seismicity: El Hierro 2011-2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roberts, Nick S.; Bell, Andrew F.; Main, Ian G.

2016-05-01

The Gutenberg-Richter b value is commonly used in volcanic eruption forecasting to infer material or mechanical properties from earthquake distributions. Such studies typically analyze discrete time windows or phases, but the choice of such windows is subjective and can introduce significant bias. Here we minimize this sample bias by iteratively sampling catalogs with randomly chosen windows and then stack the resulting probability density functions for the estimated b>˜ value to determine a net probability density function. We examine data from the El Hierro seismic catalog during a period of unrest in 2011-2013 and demonstrate clear multimodal behavior. Individual modes are relatively stable in time, but the most probable b>˜ value intermittently switches between modes, one of which is similar to that of tectonic seismicity. Multimodality is primarily associated with intermittent activation and cessation of activity in different parts of the volcanic system rather than with respect to any systematic inferred underlying process.

Statistical Correction of Air Temperature Forecasts for City and Road Weather Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahura, Alexander; Petersen, Claus; Sass, Bent; Gilet, Nicolas

2014-05-01

The method for statistical correction of air /road surface temperatures forecasts was developed based on analysis of long-term time-series of meteorological observations and forecasts (from HIgh Resolution Limited Area Model & Road Conditions Model; 3 km horizontal resolution). It has been tested for May-Aug 2012 & Oct 2012 - Mar 2013, respectively. The developed method is based mostly on forecasted meteorological parameters with a minimal inclusion of observations (covering only a pre-history period). Although the st iteration correction is based taking into account relevant temperature observations, but the further adjustment of air and road temperature forecasts is based purely on forecasted meteorological parameters. The method is model independent, e.g. it can be applied for temperature correction with other types of models having different horizontal resolutions. It is relatively fast due to application of the singular value decomposition method for matrix solution to find coefficients. Moreover, there is always a possibility for additional improvement due to extra tuning of the temperature forecasts for some locations (stations), and in particular, where for example, the MAEs are generally higher compared with others (see Gilet et al., 2014). For the city weather applications, new operationalized procedure for statistical correction of the air temperature forecasts has been elaborated and implemented for the HIRLAM-SKA model runs at 00, 06, 12, and 18 UTCs covering forecast lengths up to 48 hours. The procedure includes segments for extraction of observations and forecast data, assigning these to forecast lengths, statistical correction of temperature, one-&multi-days statistical evaluation of model performance, decision-making on using corrections by stations, interpolation, visualisation and storage/backup. Pre-operational air temperature correction runs were performed for the mainland Denmark since mid-April 2013 and shown good results. Tests also showed that the CPU time required for the operational procedure is relatively short (less than 15 minutes including a large time spent for interpolation). These also showed that in order to start correction of forecasts there is no need to have a long-term pre-historical data (containing forecasts and observations) and, at least, a couple of weeks will be sufficient when a new observational station is included and added to the forecast point. Note for the road weather application, the operationalization of the statistical correction of the road surface temperature forecasts (for the RWM system daily hourly runs covering forecast length up to 5 hours ahead) for the Danish road network (for about 400 road stations) was also implemented, and it is running in a test mode since Sep 2013. The method can also be applied for correction of the dew point temperature and wind speed (as a part of observations/ forecasts at synoptical stations), where these both meteorological parameters are parts of the proposed system of equations. The evaluation of the method performance for improvement of the wind speed forecasts is planned as well, with considering possibilities for the wind direction improvements (which is more complex due to multi-modal types of such data distribution). The method worked for the entire domain of mainland Denmark (tested for 60 synoptical and 395 road stations), and hence, it can be also applied for any geographical point within this domain, as through interpolation to about 100 cities' locations (for Danish national byvejr forecasts). Moreover, we can assume that the same method can be used in other geographical areas. The evaluation for other domains (with a focus on Greenland and Nordic countries) is planned. In addition, a similar approach might be also tested for statistical correction of concentrations of chemical species, but such approach will require additional elaboration and evaluation.

Stratospheric Assimilation of Chemical Tracer Observations Using a Kalman Filter. Pt. 2; Chi-Square Validated Results and Analysis of Variance and Correlation Dynamics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Menard, Richard; Chang, Lang-Ping

1998-01-01

A Kalman filter system designed for the assimilation of limb-sounding observations of stratospheric chemical tracers, which has four tunable covariance parameters, was developed in Part I (Menard et al. 1998) The assimilation results of CH4 observations from the Cryogenic Limb Array Etalon Sounder instrument (CLAES) and the Halogen Observation Experiment instrument (HALOE) on board of the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite are described in this paper. A robust (chi)(sup 2) criterion, which provides a statistical validation of the forecast and observational error covariances, was used to estimate the tunable variance parameters of the system. In particular, an estimate of the model error variance was obtained. The effect of model error on the forecast error variance became critical after only three days of assimilation of CLAES observations, although it took 14 days of forecast to double the initial error variance. We further found that the model error due to numerical discretization as arising in the standard Kalman filter algorithm, is comparable in size to the physical model error due to wind and transport modeling errors together. Separate assimilations of CLAES and HALOE observations were compared to validate the state estimate away from the observed locations. A wave-breaking event that took place several thousands of kilometers away from the HALOE observation locations was well captured by the Kalman filter due to highly anisotropic forecast error correlations. The forecast error correlation in the assimilation of the CLAES observations was found to have a structure similar to that in pure forecast mode except for smaller length scales. Finally, we have conducted an analysis of the variance and correlation dynamics to determine their relative importance in chemical tracer assimilation problems. Results show that the optimality of a tracer assimilation system depends, for the most part, on having flow-dependent error correlation rather than on evolving the error variance.

CMB Polarization B-mode Delensing with SPTpol and Herschel

DOE PAGES

Manzotti, A.; et al.

2017-08-30

We present a demonstration of delensing the observed cosmic microwave background (CMB) B-mode polarization anisotropy. This process of reducing the gravitational-lensing-generated B-mode component will become increasingly important for improving searches for the B modes produced by primordial gravitational waves. In this work, we delens B-mode maps constructed from multi-frequency SPTpol observations of a 90 deg(2) patch of sky by subtracting a B-mode template constructed from two inputs: SPTpol E-mode maps and a lensing potential map estimated from the Herschel 500 μm map of the cosmic infrared background. We find that our delensing procedure reduces the measured B-mode power spectrum bymore » $28$% in the multipole range $$300\\lt {\\ell }\\lt 2300,$$ this is shown to be consistent with expectations from simulations and to be robust against systematics. The null hypothesis of no delensing is rejected at $$6.9\\sigma $$. Furthermore, we build and use a suite of realistic simulations to study the general properties of the delensing process and find that the delensing efficiency achieved in this work is limited primarily by the noise in the lensing potential map. We demonstrate the importance of including realistic experimental non-idealities in the delensing forecasts used to inform instrument and survey-strategy planning of upcoming lower-noise experiments, such as CMB-S4.« less

Simulating the effect of non-linear mode coupling in cosmological parameter estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kiessling, A.; Taylor, A. N.; Heavens, A. F.

2011-09-01

Fisher Information Matrix methods are commonly used in cosmology to estimate the accuracy that cosmological parameters can be measured with a given experiment and to optimize the design of experiments. However, the standard approach usually assumes both data and parameter estimates are Gaussian-distributed. Further, for survey forecasts and optimization it is usually assumed that the power-spectrum covariance matrix is diagonal in Fourier space. However, in the low-redshift Universe, non-linear mode coupling will tend to correlate small-scale power, moving information from lower to higher order moments of the field. This movement of information will change the predictions of cosmological parameter accuracy. In this paper we quantify this loss of information by comparing naïve Gaussian Fisher matrix forecasts with a maximum likelihood parameter estimation analysis of a suite of mock weak lensing catalogues derived from N-body simulations, based on the SUNGLASS pipeline, for a 2D and tomographic shear analysis of a Euclid-like survey. In both cases, we find that the 68 per cent confidence area of the Ωm-σ8 plane increases by a factor of 5. However, the marginal errors increase by just 20-40 per cent. We propose a new method to model the effects of non-linear shear-power mode coupling in the Fisher matrix by approximating the shear-power distribution as a multivariate Gaussian with a covariance matrix derived from the mock weak lensing survey. We find that this approximation can reproduce the 68 per cent confidence regions of the full maximum likelihood analysis in the Ωm-σ8 plane to high accuracy for both 2D and tomographic weak lensing surveys. Finally, we perform a multiparameter analysis of Ωm, σ8, h, ns, w0 and wa to compare the Gaussian and non-linear mode-coupled Fisher matrix contours. The 6D volume of the 1σ error contours for the non-linear Fisher analysis is a factor of 3 larger than for the Gaussian case, and the shape of the 68 per cent confidence volume is modified. We propose that future Fisher matrix estimates of cosmological parameter accuracies should include mode-coupling effects.

Regional forecasting system of marine state and variability of dynamical processes in the easternmost part of the Black Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kordzadze, Avtandil; Demetrashvili, Demuri

2014-05-01

The regional forecasting system for the easternmost part of the Black Sea developed at M. Nodia Institute of Geophysics of I. Javakhishvili Tbilisi State University under the EU framework projects ARENA and ECOOP is a part of the Black Sea basin-scale Nowcasting/Forecasting System. A core of the regional forecasting system is a baroclinic regional model of Black Sea dynamics with 1 km spacing based on hydrostatic primitive equations of ocean hydrothermodynamics, which are written in z-coordinates for deviations of thermodynamic values from their standard vertical distributions. To solve the problem the two-cycle method of splitting the model equation system with respect to both physical processes and coordinate planes and lines is used. The regional model of M. Nodia Institute of Geophysics is nested in the basin-scale model of Black Sea dynamics of Marine Hydrophysical Institute (Sevastopol/Ukraine). The regional forecasting system provides 3 days' forecasts of current, temperature and salinity for the easternmost part of the Black Sea, which is limited to the Caucasian and Turkish coastal lines and the western liquid boundary coinciding with the meridian 39.080E. Data needed on liquid and upper boundaries, also the 3-D initial hydrophysical fields for the easternmost regional area are provided in near operative mode from Marine hydrophysical Institute via Internet. These data on the liquid boundary are values of velocity components, temperature and salinity predicted by the basin-scale model of Black Sea dynamics of Marine Hydrophysical Institute and on the sea surface 2-D meteorological boundary fields - wind stress, heat fluxes, evaporation and precipitation rates predicted by the regional atmospheric model ALADIN are used. The analysis of the results of modeling and forecast of dynamic processes developed for 2010-2014 showed that the easternmost water area of the Black Sea is a dynamically very active zone, where continuously there are processes of generation, deformation and disappearance of the cyclonic and anticyclonic vortex formations of different sizes. Acknowledgement. The significant part of the researches was supported by the Shota Rustaveli National Science Foundation, Grant No. AR/373/9-120/12.

Beyond Climate and Weather Science: Expanding the Forecasting Family to Serve Societal Needs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barron, E. J.

2009-05-01

The ability to "anticipate" the future is what makes information from the Earth sciences valuable to society - whether it is the prediction of severe weather or the future availability of water resources in response to climate change. An improved ability to anticipate or forecast has the potential to serve society by simultaneously improving our ability to (1) promote economic vitality, (2) enable environmental stewardship, (3) protect life and property, as well as (4) improve our fundamental knowledge of the earth system. The potential is enormous, yet many appear ready to move quickly toward specific mitigation and adaptation strategies assuming that the science is settled. Five important weakness must be addressed first: (1) the formation of a true "climate services" function and capability, (2) the deliberate investment in expanding the family of forecasting elements to incorporate a broader array of environmental factors and impacts, (3) the investment in the sciences that connect climate to society, (4) a deliberate focus on the problems associated with scale, in particular the difference between the scale of predictive models and the scale associated with societal decisions, and (5) the evolution from climate services and model predictions to the equivalent of "environmental intelligence centers." The objective is to bring the discipline of forecasting to a broader array of environmental challenges. Assessments of the potential impacts of global climate change on societal sectors such as water, human health, and agriculture provide good examples of this challenge. We have the potential to move from a largely reactive mode in addressing adverse health outcomes, for example, to one in which the ties between climate, land cover, infectious disease vectors, and human health are used to forecast and predict adverse human health conditions. The potential exists for a revolution in forecasting, that entrains a much broader set of societal needs and solutions. The argument is made that (for example) the current capabilities in the prediction of environmental health is similar to the capabilities (and potential) of weather forecasting in the 1960's.

Potential impact of the May Southern Hemisphere annular mode on the Indian summer monsoon rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dou, Juan; Wu, Zhiwei; Zhou, Yefan

2017-04-01

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is probably a most important external forcing to Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall (ISMR), yet the observed ENSO-ISMR relationship has become weak in recent years. It's essential to explore other predominant modes of variability which can contribute to the ISMR. As the leading mode of the variability in Southern Hemisphere (SH) extratropical atmospheric circulation, the SH annular mode (SAM) has potential influence both on the northern and southern hemispheric climate. The present study investigates the relationship between the SAM and ISMR. It is found that the May SAM exhibits a significant positive correlation with the monsoon precipitation over the Indian sub-continent and the adjacent areas in JunetJuly (JJ). Observational and numerical evidences indicate that the May SAM anomaly can trigger a South Indian Ocean dipole (SIOD) sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) through air-sea interactions. The SIOD SSTA persisting into the following months of JJ excites abnormal meridional circulation and modulates the low-level cross-equatorial flow. Accordingly, the ascending (or descending) motion and water vapor transportation are enhanced (or suppressed), which favors more (or less) precipitation over the Indian sub-continent and the adjacent areas. In fact, the SIOD SSTA plays an "ocean bridge" role to "prolong" the influence of the May SAM to the subsequent season and in turn impacts on the ISMR. Moreover, an empirical model is established to forecast the JJ ISMR strength based on the ENSO, Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and May SAM. The hindcast is carried out for the period 1979-2014, and performs better than the multimodel ensemble mean (MME) obtained from the Development of a European MME system for seasonal to interannual prediction (DEMETER) project. Since all these predictors can be monitored in real time before the early boreal summer, the empirical model might provide a practical real-time forecast tool for predicting ISMR variations.

Potential impact of the May Southern Hemisphere annular mode on the Indian summer monsoon rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dou, Juan; Wu, Zhiwei; Zhou, Yefan

2017-08-01

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is probably a most important external forcing to Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall (ISMR), yet the observed ENSO-ISMR relationship has become weak in recent years. It's essential to explore other predominant modes of variability which can contribute to the ISMR. As the leading mode of the variability in Southern Hemisphere (SH) extratropical atmospheric circulation, the SH annular mode (SAM) has potential influence both on the northern and southern hemispheric climate. The present study investigates the relationship between the SAM and ISMR. It is found that the May SAM exhibits a significant positive correlation with the monsoon precipitation over the Indian sub-continent and the adjacent areas in June-July (JJ). Observational and numerical evidences indicate that the May SAM anomaly can trigger a South Indian Ocean dipole (SIOD) sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) through air-sea interactions. The SIOD SSTA persisting into the following months of JJ excites abnormal meridional circulation and modulates the low-level cross-equatorial flow. Accordingly, the ascending (or descending) motion and water vapor transportation are enhanced (or suppressed), which favors more (or less) precipitation over the Indian sub-continent and the adjacent areas. In fact, the SIOD SSTA plays an "ocean bridge" role to "prolong" the influence of the May SAM to the subsequent season and in turn impacts on the ISMR. Moreover, an empirical model is established to forecast the JJ ISMR strength based on the ENSO, Indian Ocean Dipole and May SAM. The hindcast is carried out for the period 1979-2014, and performs better than the multimodel ensemble mean (MME) obtained from the Development of a European MME system for seasonal to interannual prediction (DEMETER) project. Since all these predictors can be monitored in real time before the early boreal summer, the empirical model might provide a practical real-time forecast tool for predicting ISMR variations.