A revised model of ex-vivo reduction of hexavalent chromium in human and rodent gastric juices

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schlosser, Paul M., E-mail: schlosser.paul@epa.gov; Sasso, Alan F.

Chronic oral exposure to hexavalent chromium (Cr-VI) in drinking water has been shown to induce tumors in the mouse gastrointestinal (GI) tract and rat oral cavity. The same is not true for trivalent chromium (Cr-III). Thus reduction of Cr-VI to Cr-III in gastric juices is considered a protective mechanism, and it has been suggested that the difference between the rate of reduction among mice, rats, and humans could explain or predict differences in sensitivity to Cr-VI. We evaluated previously published models of gastric reduction and believe that they do not fully describe the data on reduction as a function ofmore » Cr-VI concentration, time, and (in humans) pH. The previous models are parsimonious in assuming only a single reducing agent in rodents and describing pH-dependence using a simple function. We present a revised model that assumes three pools of reducing agents in rats and mice with pH-dependence based on known speciation chemistry. While the revised model uses more fitted parameters than the original model, they are adequately identifiable given the available data, and the fit of the revised model to the full range of data is shown to be significantly improved. Hence the revised model should provide better predictions of Cr-VI reduction when integrated into a corresponding PBPK model. - Highlights: • Hexavalent chromium (Cr-VI) reduction in gastric juices is a key detoxifying step. • pH-dependent Cr-VI reduction rates are explained using known chemical speciation. • Reduction in rodents appears to involve multiple pools of electron donors. • Reduction appears to continue after 60 min, although more slowly than initial rates.« less

Evaluation of the hooghoudt and kirkham tile drain equations in the soil and water assessment tool to simulate tile flow and nitrate-nitrogen.

PubMed

Moriasi, Daniel N; Gowda, Prasanna H; Arnold, Jeffrey G; Mulla, David J; Ale, Srinivasulu; Steiner, Jean L; Tomer, Mark D

2013-11-01

Subsurface tile drains in agricultural systems of the midwestern United States are a major contributor of nitrate-N (NO-N) loadings to hypoxic conditions in the Gulf of Mexico. Hydrologic and water quality models, such as the Soil and Water Assessment Tool, are widely used to simulate tile drainage systems. The Hooghoudt and Kirkham tile drain equations in the Soil and Water Assessment Tool have not been rigorously tested for predicting tile flow and the corresponding NO-N losses. In this study, long-term (1983-1996) monitoring plot data from southern Minnesota were used to evaluate the SWAT version 2009 revision 531 (hereafter referred to as SWAT) model for accurately estimating subsurface tile drain flows and associated NO-N losses. A retention parameter adjustment factor was incorporated to account for the effects of tile drainage and slope changes on the computation of surface runoff using the curve number method (hereafter referred to as Revised SWAT). The SWAT and Revised SWAT models were calibrated and validated for tile flow and associated NO-N losses. Results indicated that, on average, Revised SWAT predicted monthly tile flow and associated NO-N losses better than SWAT by 48 and 28%, respectively. For the calibration period, the Revised SWAT model simulated tile flow and NO-N losses within 4 and 1% of the observed data, respectively. For the validation period, it simulated tile flow and NO-N losses within 8 and 2%, respectively, of the observed values. Therefore, the Revised SWAT model is expected to provide more accurate simulation of the effectiveness of tile drainage and NO-N management practices. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

Personality traits and achievement motives: theoretical and empirical relations between the NEO Personality Inventory-Revised and the Achievement Motives Scale.

PubMed

Diseth, Age; Martinsen, Øyvind

2009-04-01

Theoretical and empirical relations between personality traits and motive dispositions were investigated by comparing scores of 315 undergraduate psychology students on the NEO Personality Inventory-Revised and the Achievement Motives Scale. Analyses showed all NEO Personality Inventory-Revised factors except agreeableness were significantly correlated with the motive for success and the motive to avoid failure. A structural equation model showed that motive for success was predicted by Extraversion, Openness, Conscientiousness, and Neuroticism (negative relation), and motive to avoid failure was predicted by Neuroticism and Openness (negative relation). Although both achievement motives were predicted by several personality factors, motive for success was most strongly predicted by Openness, and motive to avoid failure was most strongly predicted by neuroticism. These findings extended previous research on the relations of personality traits and achievement motives and provided a basis for the discussion of motive dispositions in personality. The results also added to the construct validity of the Achievement Motives Scale.

Critical Evaluation of Prediction Models for Phosphorus Partition between CaO-based Slags and Iron-based Melts during Dephosphorization Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Xue-Min; Li, Jin-Yan; Chai, Guo-Ming; Duan, Dong-Ping; Zhang, Jian

2016-08-01

According to the experimental results of hot metal dephosphorization by CaO-based slags at a commercial-scale hot metal pretreatment station, the collected 16 models of equilibrium quotient k_{{P}} or phosphorus partition L_{{P}} between CaO-based slags and iron-based melts from the literature have been evaluated. The collected 16 models for predicting equilibrium quotient k_{{P}} can be transferred to predict phosphorus partition L_{{P}} . The predicted results by the collected 16 models cannot be applied to be criteria for evaluating k_{{P}} or L_{{P}} due to various forms or definitions of k_{{P}} or L_{{P}} . Thus, the measured phosphorus content [pct P] in a hot metal bath at the end point of the dephosphorization pretreatment process is applied to be the fixed criteria for evaluating the collected 16 models. The collected 16 models can be described in the form of linear functions as y = c0 + c1 x , in which independent variable x represents the chemical composition of slags, intercept c0 including the constant term depicts the temperature effect and other unmentioned or acquiescent thermodynamic factors, and slope c1 is regressed by the experimental results of k_{{P}} or L_{{P}} . Thus, a general approach to developing the thermodynamic model for predicting equilibrium quotient k_{{P}} or phosphorus partition L P or [pct P] in iron-based melts during the dephosphorization process is proposed by revising the constant term in intercept c0 for the summarized 15 models except for Suito's model (M3). The better models with an ideal revising possibility or flexibility among the collected 16 models have been selected and recommended. Compared with the predicted result by the revised 15 models and Suito's model (M3), the developed IMCT- L_{{P}} model coupled with the proposed dephosphorization mechanism by the present authors can be applied to accurately predict phosphorus partition L_{{P}} with the lowest mean deviation δ_{{L_{{P}} }} of log L_{{P}} as 2.33, as well as to predict [pct P] in a hot metal bath with the smallest mean deviation δ_{{[% {{ P}}]}} of [pct P] as 12.31.

Biomechanical evaluation of tibial bone adaptation after revision total knee arthroplasty: A comparison of different implant systems

PubMed Central

Quilez, María Paz; Seral, Belen; Pérez, María Angeles

2017-01-01

The best methods to manage tibial bone defects following total knee arthroplasty remain under debate. Different fixation systems exist to help surgeons reconstruct knee osseous bone loss (such as tantalum cones, cement, modular metal augments, autografts, allografts and porous metaphyseal sleeves) However, the effects of the various solutions on the long-term outcome remain unknown. In the present work, a bone remodeling mathematical model was used to predict bone remodeling after total knee arthroplasty (TKA) revision. Five different types of prostheses were analyzed: one with a straight stem; two with offset stems, with and without supplements; and two with sleeves, with and without stems. Alterations in tibia bone density distribution and implant Von Mises stresses were quantified. In all cases, the bone density decreased in the proximal epiphysis and medullary channels, and an increase in bone density was predicted in the diaphysis and around stem tips. The highest bone resorption was predicted for the offset prosthesis without the supplement, and the highest bone formation was computed for the straight stem. The highest Von Mises stress was obtained for the straight tibial stem, and the lowest was observed for the stemless metaphyseal sleeves prosthesis. The computational model predicted different behaviors among the five systems. We were able to demonstrate the importance of choosing an adequate revision system and that in silico models may help surgeons choose patient-specific treatments. PMID:28886100

Five-Year-Olds' Systematic Errors in Second-Order False Belief Tasks Are Due to First-Order Theory of Mind Strategy Selection: A Computational Modeling Study.

PubMed

Arslan, Burcu; Taatgen, Niels A; Verbrugge, Rineke

2017-01-01

The focus of studies on second-order false belief reasoning generally was on investigating the roles of executive functions and language with correlational studies. Different from those studies, we focus on the question how 5-year-olds select and revise reasoning strategies in second-order false belief tasks by constructing two computational cognitive models of this process: an instance-based learning model and a reinforcement learning model. Unlike the reinforcement learning model, the instance-based learning model predicted that children who fail second-order false belief tasks would give answers based on first-order theory of mind (ToM) reasoning as opposed to zero-order reasoning. This prediction was confirmed with an empirical study that we conducted with 72 5- to 6-year-old children. The results showed that 17% of the answers were correct and 83% of the answers were wrong. In line with our prediction, 65% of the wrong answers were based on a first-order ToM strategy, while only 29% of them were based on a zero-order strategy (the remaining 6% of subjects did not provide any answer). Based on our instance-based learning model, we propose that when children get feedback "Wrong," they explicitly revise their strategy to a higher level instead of implicitly selecting one of the available ToM strategies. Moreover, we predict that children's failures are due to lack of experience and that with exposure to second-order false belief reasoning, children can revise their wrong first-order reasoning strategy to a correct second-order reasoning strategy.

Five-Year-Olds’ Systematic Errors in Second-Order False Belief Tasks Are Due to First-Order Theory of Mind Strategy Selection: A Computational Modeling Study

PubMed Central

Arslan, Burcu; Taatgen, Niels A.; Verbrugge, Rineke

2017-01-01

The focus of studies on second-order false belief reasoning generally was on investigating the roles of executive functions and language with correlational studies. Different from those studies, we focus on the question how 5-year-olds select and revise reasoning strategies in second-order false belief tasks by constructing two computational cognitive models of this process: an instance-based learning model and a reinforcement learning model. Unlike the reinforcement learning model, the instance-based learning model predicted that children who fail second-order false belief tasks would give answers based on first-order theory of mind (ToM) reasoning as opposed to zero-order reasoning. This prediction was confirmed with an empirical study that we conducted with 72 5- to 6-year-old children. The results showed that 17% of the answers were correct and 83% of the answers were wrong. In line with our prediction, 65% of the wrong answers were based on a first-order ToM strategy, while only 29% of them were based on a zero-order strategy (the remaining 6% of subjects did not provide any answer). Based on our instance-based learning model, we propose that when children get feedback “Wrong,” they explicitly revise their strategy to a higher level instead of implicitly selecting one of the available ToM strategies. Moreover, we predict that children’s failures are due to lack of experience and that with exposure to second-order false belief reasoning, children can revise their wrong first-order reasoning strategy to a correct second-order reasoning strategy. PMID:28293206

Application of MUSLE for the prediction of phosphorus losses.

PubMed

Noor, Hamze; Mirnia, Seyed Khalagh; Fazli, Somaye; Raisi, Mohamad Bagher; Vafakhah, Mahdi

2010-01-01

Soil erosion in forestlands affects not only land productivity but also the water body down stream. The Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) has been applied broadly for the prediction of soil loss from upland fields. However, there are few reports concerning the prediction of nutrient (P) losses based on the USLE and its versions. The present study was conducted to evaluate the applicability of the deterministic model Modified Universal Soil Loss Equation (MUSLE) to estimation of phosphorus losses in the Kojor forest watershed, northern Iran. The model was tested and calibrated using accurate continuous P loss data collected during seven storm events in 2008. Results of the original model simulations for storm-wise P loss did not match the observed data, while the revised version of the model could imitate the observed values well. The results of the study approved the efficient application of the revised MUSLE in estimating storm-wise P losses in the study area with a high level of agreement of beyond 93%, an acceptable estimation error of some 35%.

A study of life prediction differences for a nickel-base Alloy 690 using a threshold and a non-threshold model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Young, B. A.; Gao, Xiaosheng; Srivatsan, T. S.

2009-10-01

In this paper we compare and contrast the crack growth rate of a nickel-base superalloy (Alloy 690) in the Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) environment. Over the last few years, a preponderance of test data has been gathered on both Alloy 690 thick plate and Alloy 690 tubing. The original model, essentially based on a small data set for thick plate, compensated for temperature, load ratio and stress-intensity range but did not compensate for the fatigue threshold of the material. As additional test data on both plate and tube product became available the model was gradually revised to account for threshold properties. Both the original and revised models generated acceptable results for data that were above 1 × 10 -11 m/s. However, the test data at the lower growth rates were over-predicted by the non-threshold model. Since the original model did not take the fatigue threshold into account, this model predicted no operating stress below which the material would effectively undergo fatigue crack growth. Because of an over-prediction of the growth rate below 1 × 10 -11 m/s, due to a combination of low stress, small crack size and long rise-time, the model in general leads to an under-prediction of the total available life of the components.

Unchained Melody: Revisiting the Estimation of SF-6D Values

PubMed Central

Craig, Benjamin M.

2015-01-01

Purpose In the original SF-6D valuation study, the analytical design inherited conventions that detrimentally affected its ability to predict values on a quality-adjusted life year (QALY) scale. Our objective is to estimate UK values for SF-6D states using the original data and multi-attribute utility (MAU) regression after addressing its limitations and to compare the revised SF-6D and EQ-5D value predictions. Methods Using the unaltered data (611 respondents, 3503 SG responses), the parameters of the original MAU model were re-estimated under 3 alternative error specifications, known as the instant, episodic, and angular random utility models. Value predictions on a QALY scale were compared to EQ-5D3L predictions using the 1996 Health Survey for England. Results Contrary to the original results, the revised SF-6D value predictions range below 0 QALYs (i.e., worse than death) and agree largely with EQ-5D predictions after adjusting for scale. Although a QALY is defined as a year in optimal health, the SF-6D sets a higher standard for optimal health than the EQ-5D-3L; therefore, it has larger units on a QALY scale by construction (20.9% more). Conclusions Much of the debate in health valuation has focused on differences between preference elicitation tasks, sampling, and instruments. After correcting errant econometric practices and adjusting for differences in QALY scale between the EQ-5D and SF-6D values, the revised predictions demonstrate convergent validity, making them more suitable for UK economic evaluations compared to original estimates. PMID:26359242

How often is the office visit needed? Predicting total knee arthroplasty revision risk using pain/function scores.

PubMed

Hightower, Charles D; Hightower, Lisa S; Tatman, Penny J; Morgan, Patrick M; Gioe, Terence; Singh, Jasvinder A

2016-08-24

Most patients have favorable outcomes after primary total knee arthroplasty (TKA). Well-validated methods to predict the risk of poor outcomes have not been developed or implemented. Several patients have annual clinic visits despite well-funcitoning TKA, as a routine practice, to detect early failure requiring revision surgery. It is not known whether assessment of pain and function can be used as a predictive tool for early failure and revision to guide practice. Our objective was to determine whether pain and function can predict revision after TKA. We retrospectively studied data from a large prospectively gathered TKA registry to examine changes in outcome scores for primary TKAs undergoing revision compared to those not requiring revision to determine the factors that are predictive for revision. Of the 1,012 patients, 721 had had a single-sided primary TKA and had American Knee Society (AKS) Scores for three or more visits. 46 patients underwent revision, 23 acutely (fracture, traumatic component failure or acute infection) and 23 for latent causes (late implant loosening, progressive osteolysis, or pain and indolent infection). Mean age was 70 years for the non-revision patients, and 64 years for those revised. Both AKS Clinical and AKS Function Scores for non-revised patients were higher than in revision patients, higher in acute revision compared to latent revision patients. Significant predictors of revision surgery were preoperative, 3- and 15-month postoperative AKS Clinical Scores and 3-month AKS Function Scores. At 15-month post-TKA, a patient with a low calculated probability of revision, 32 % or less, was unlikely to require revision surgery with a negative predictive value of 99 %. Time dependent interval evaluation post-TKA with the AKS outcome scores may provide the ability to assign risk of revision to patients at the 15-month follow-up visit. If these findings can be replicated using a patient-reported measure, a virtual follow-up with patient-reported outcomes and X-ray review may be an alternative to clinic visit for patients doing well.

Comparison of mortality prediction models in burns ICU patients in Pinderfields Hospital over 3 years.

PubMed

Douglas, Helen E; Ratcliffe, Andrew; Sandhu, Rajdeep; Anwar, Umair

2015-02-01

Many different burns mortality prediction models exist; however most agree that important factors that can be weighted include the age of the patient, the total percentage of body surface area burned and the presence or absence of smoke inhalation. A retrospective review of all burns primarily admitted to Pinderfields Burns ICU under joint care of burns surgeons and intensivists for the past 3 years was completed. Predicted mortality was calculated using the revised Baux score (2010), the Belgian Outcome in Burn Injury score (2009) and the Boston group score by Ryan et al. (1998). Additionally 28 of the 48 patients had APACHE II scores recorded on admission and the predicted and actual mortality of this group were compared. The Belgian score had the highest sensitivity and negative predictive value (72%/85%); followed by the Boston score (66%/78%) and then the revised Baux score (53%/70%). APACHE II scores had higher sensitivity (81%) and NPV (92%) than any of the burns scores. In our group of burns ICU patients the Belgian model was the most sensitive and specific predictor of mortality. In our subgroup of patients with APACHE II data, this score more accurately predicted survival and mortality. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd and ISBI. All rights reserved.

Revised Lens Model and Predictions of Time Delay for the Multiply Imaged Lensed Supernova, “SN Refsdal”, in the FF cluster MACS J1149+2223

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharon, Keren; Johnson, Traci Lin

2015-08-01

We present a revised lens model of MACS J1149+2223, in which the first resolved multiply imaged lensed supernova (SN) was discovered. The lens model is based on the model of Johnson et al. with some modifications. We include more lensing constraints from the host galaxy of the newly discovered SN, and increase the flexibility of the model in order to better reproduce the lensing signal in the vicinity of this galaxy. The revised model accurately reconstructs the positions of the lensed SN, provides magnifications, predicts the time delay between the instances of the SN, and derive their uncertainties. We find that the time delays between the four observed images are a few days: t(S2) = 2 +10/-6 days, t(S3)=-5 +13/-7 days, t(S4)=7 +16/-3 days. At the positions of the other images of the same host galaxy, an image of the SN had appeared on the opposite side of the cluster some 11-13 years ago, and another is predicted to appear approximately 180-280 days after S1, i.e., in a 3-month window around July 2015. This image will be less magnified than the ones already detected, with magnification of mu=5 (compared to mu~10-20 of the four images that were observed in 2014, making it about three times fainter). Finally, we reconstruct the source image of the host galaxy, and position the SN on one of its spiral arms. New lensing constraints from the full depth FF imaging will improve the accuracy of future lens models. Products of this lens model are available to the community through MAST.

Revalidation of the Score for Neonatal Acute Physiology in the Vermont Oxford Network.

PubMed

Zupancic, John A F; Richardson, Douglas K; Horbar, Jeffrey D; Carpenter, Joseph H; Lee, Shoo K; Escobar, Gabriel J

2007-01-01

Our specific objectives were (1) to document the performance of the revised Score for Neonatal Acute Physiology and the revised Score for Neonatal Acute Physiology Perinatal Extension in predicting death in the Vermont Oxford Network, compared with published normative values; (2) to determine whether this performance could be improved through recalibration of the weights for individual score items; (3) to determine the impact of including congenital anomalies in the predictive model; and (4) to compare performance against that of the Vermont Oxford Network risk adjustment, separately and in combination. Fifty-eight Vermont Oxford Network centers collected data prospectively for the revised Score for Neonatal Acute Physiology in the first 12 hours after admission of infants in 2002. Data were collected for 10,469 infants, and analyses were undertaken for 9897 who met inclusion criteria. The median revised Score for Neonatal Acute Physiology was 5, and the mean birth weight was 1951 g. Recalibration of the revised Score for Neonatal Acute Physiology and revised Score for Neonatal Acute Physiology Perinatal Extension resulted in minimal changes in their discriminatory abilities. The Vermont Oxford Network risk adjustment performed similarly, compared with the revised Score for Neonatal Acute Physiology Perinatal Extension. Current score performance was similar to that observed previously, which suggests that the revised Score for Neonatal Acute Physiology and revised Score for Neonatal Acute Physiology Perinatal Extension have not decalibrated over the 7 years since the first cohort was assembled, despite advances in neonatal care during that period. Addition of congenital anomalies to the revised Score for Neonatal Acute Physiology Perinatal Extension improved discrimination significantly, particularly for infants with birth weights of >1500 g. The Vermont Oxford Network risk adjustment performed similarly, compared with the revised Score for Neonatal Acute Physiology Perinatal Extension.

A quantitative model of optimal data selection in Wason's selection task.

PubMed

Hattori, Masasi

2002-10-01

The optimal data selection model proposed by Oaksford and Chater (1994) successfully formalized Wason's selection task (Wason, 1966). The model, however, involved some questionable assumptions and was also not sufficient as a model of the task because it could not provide quantitative predictions of the card selection frequencies. In this paper, the model was revised to provide quantitative fits to the data. The model can predict the selection frequencies of cards based on a selection tendency function (STF), or conversely, it enables the estimation of subjective probabilities from data. Past experimental data were first re-analysed based on the model. In Experiment 1, the superiority of the revised model was shown. However, when the relationship between antecedent and consequent was forced to deviate from the biconditional form, the model was not supported. In Experiment 2, it was shown that sufficient emphasis on probabilistic information can affect participants' performance. A detailed experimental method to sort participants by probabilistic strategies was introduced. Here, the model was supported by a subgroup of participants who used the probabilistic strategy. Finally, the results were discussed from the viewpoint of adaptive rationality.

Learning to perceive and recognize a second language: the L2LP model revised.

PubMed

van Leussen, Jan-Willem; Escudero, Paola

2015-01-01

We present a test of a revised version of the Second Language Linguistic Perception (L2LP) model, a computational model of the acquisition of second language (L2) speech perception and recognition. The model draws on phonetic, phonological, and psycholinguistic constructs to explain a number of L2 learning scenarios. However, a recent computational implementation failed to validate a theoretical proposal for a learning scenario where the L2 has less phonemic categories than the native language (L1) along a given acoustic continuum. According to the L2LP, learners faced with this learning scenario must not only shift their old L1 phoneme boundaries but also reduce the number of categories employed in perception. Our proposed revision to L2LP successfully accounts for this updating in the number of perceptual categories as a process driven by the meaning of lexical items, rather than by the learners' awareness of the number and type of phonemes that are relevant in their new language, as the previous version of L2LP assumed. Results of our simulations show that meaning-driven learning correctly predicts the developmental path of L2 phoneme perception seen in empirical studies. Additionally, and to contribute to a long-standing debate in psycholinguistics, we test two versions of the model, with the stages of phonemic perception and lexical recognition being either sequential or interactive. Both versions succeed in learning to recognize minimal pairs in the new L2, but make diverging predictions on learners' resulting phonological representations. In sum, the proposed revision to the L2LP model contributes to our understanding of L2 acquisition, with implications for speech processing in general.

Modeling Hidden Circuits: An Authentic Research Experience in One Lab Period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, J. Christopher; Rubbo, Louis J.

2016-10-01

Two wires exit a black box that has three exposed light bulbs connected together in an unknown configuration. The task for students is to determine the circuit configuration without opening the box. In the activity described in this paper, we navigate students through the process of making models, developing and conducting experiments that can support or falsify models, and confronting ways of distinguishing between two different models that make similar predictions. We also describe a twist that forces students to confront new phenomena, requiring revision of their mental model of electric circuits. This activity is designed to mirror the practice of science by actual scientists and expose students to the "messy" side of science, where our simple explanations of reality often require expansion and/or revision based on new evidence. The purpose of this paper is to present a simple classroom activity within the context of electric circuits that supports students as they learn to test hypotheses and refine and revise models based on evidence.

The Benefits of Scientific Modeling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kenyon, Lisa; Schwarz, Christina; Hug, Barbara

2008-01-01

When students are engaged in scientific modeling, they are able to notice patterns and develop and revise representations that become useful models to predict and explain--making their own scientific knowledge stronger, helping them to think critically, and helping them know more about the nature of science. To illustrate, this article describes a…

Modifications to the steady-state 41-node thermoregulatory model including validation of the respiratory and diffusional water loss equations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1974-01-01

After the simplified version of the 41-Node Stolwijk Metabolic Man Model was implemented on the Sigma 3 and UNIVAC 1110 computers in batch mode, it became desirable to make certain revisions. First, the availability of time-sharing terminals makes it possible to provide the capability and flexibility of conversational interaction between user and model. Secondly, recent physiological studies show the need to revise certain parameter values contained in the model. Thirdly, it was desired to make quantitative and accurate predictions of evaporative water loss for humans in an orbiting space station. The result of the first phase of this effort are reported.

Validation of Automated Prediction of Blood Product Needs Algorithm Processing Continuous Non Invasive Vital Signs Streams (ONPOINT4)

DTIC Science & Technology

2018-01-25

ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) University of Maryland, Baltimore 22 S. Greene St. R Adams Cowley Shock Trauma Center, T5R46 Baltimore, MD 21201 8...the revised trauma score, shock index (= heart rate/systolic blood pressure), and assessment of blood consumption, our M2 (bleeding risk index...11 4.2 Transfusion Prediction Model Evaluation in Special Subsets (Model Stress Test) ....... 15 4.3 Feature Sets and Model Stability

Buckling Response of a Large-Scale, Seamless, Orthogrid-Stiffened Metallic Cylinder

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rudd, Michelle Tillotson; Hilburger, Mark W.; Lovejoy, Andrew E.; Lindell, Michael C.; Gardner, Nathaniel W.; Schultz, Marc R.

2018-01-01

Results from the buckling test of a compression-loaded 8-ft-diameter seamless (i.e., without manufacturing joints), orthogrid-stiffened metallic cylinder are presented. This test was used to assess the buckling response and imperfection sensitivity characteristics of a seamless cylinder. In addition, the test article and test served as a technology demonstration to show the application of the flow forming manufacturing process to build more efficient buckling-critical structures by eliminating the welded joints that are traditionally used in the manufacturing of large metallic barrels. Pretest predictions of the cylinder buckling response were obtained using a finite-element model that included measured geometric imperfections. The buckling load predicted using this model was 697,000 lb, and the test article buckled at 743,000 lb (6% higher). After the test, the model was revised to account for measured variations in skin and stiffener geometry, nonuniform loading, and material properties. The revised model predicted a buckling load of 754,000 lb, which is within 1.5% of the tested buckling load. In addition, it was determined that the load carrying capability of the seamless cylinder is approximately 28% greater than a corresponding cylinder with welded joints.

Predicting intentions to donate blood among nondonors in Australia: an extended theory of planned behavior.

PubMed

Robinson, Natalie G; Masser, Barbara M; White, Katherine M; Hyde, Melissa K; Terry, Deborah J

2008-12-01

With an increasing demand for blood and blood products in Australia, there is a continual need to recruit blood donors. As such, it is important to investigate the factors that impact on nondonors' decision-making processes with regard to donating blood for the first time. Previous research has established the efficacy of the theory of planned behavior (TPB) in predicting blood donor intentions. The current research aimed to test a TPB model augmented with constructs implicated in previous blood donor research; specifically descriptive norm, moral norm, anticipated regret, and donation anxiety. Participants completed measures assessing the standard TPB variables of attitude, subjective norm, and perceived behavioral control (PBC) as well as descriptive norm, moral norm, donation anxiety, and anticipated regret. Path analysis examined the utility of the augmented TPB model to predict 195 non-blood donors' intentions to donate blood. A final revised model provided a very good fit to the data and included attitude, PBC, moral norm, descriptive norm, anticipated regret, and donation anxiety as direct predictors of intention, with these factors accounting for 70 percent of the variance in intentions to donate blood. A revised TPB model provided a more efficacious predictor of nondonors' intentions to donate than the standard TPB model and highlights the role that norm-based factors and affective-laden constructs play in predicting non-blood donors' intentions to donate.

IMPROVING CHEMICAL TRANSPORT MODEL PREDICTIONS OF ORGANIC AEROSOL: MEASUREMENT AND SIMULATION OF SEMIVOLATILE ORGANIC EMISSIONS FROM MOBILE AND NON-MOBILE SOURCES

EPA Science Inventory

Organic material contributes a significant fraction of PM_2.5 mass across all regions of the United States, but state-of-the-art chemical transport models often substantially underpredict measured organic aerosol concentrations. Recent revisions to these models that...

A redefinition of the representation of mammary cells and enzyme activities in a lactating dairy cow model.

PubMed

Hanigan, M D; Rius, A G; Kolver, E S; Palliser, C C

2007-08-01

The Molly model predicts various aspects of digestion and metabolism in the cow, including nutrient partitioning between milk and body stores. It has been observed previously that the model underpredicts milk component yield responses to nutrition and consequently overpredicts body energy store responses. In Molly, mammary enzyme activity is represented as an aggregate of mammary cell numbers and activity per cell with minimal endocrine regulation. Work by others suggests that mammary cells can cycle between active and quiescent states in response to various stimuli. Simple models of milk production have demonstrated the utility of this representation when using the model to simulate variable milking and nutrient restriction. It was hypothesized that replacing the current representation of mammary cells and enzyme activity in Molly with a representation of active and quiescent cells and improving the representation of endocrine control of cell activity would improve predictions of milk component yield. The static representation of cell numbers was replaced with a representation of cell growth during gestation and early lactation periods and first-order cell death. Enzyme capacity for fat and protein synthesis was assumed to be proportional to cell numbers. Enzyme capacity for lactose synthesis was represented with the same equation form as for cell numbers. Data used for parameter estimation were collected as part of an extended lactation trial. Cows with North American or New Zealand genotypes were fed 0, 3, or 6 kg of concentrate dry matter daily during a 600-d lactation. The original model had root mean square prediction errors of 17.7, 22.3, and 19.8% for lactose, protein, and fat yield, respectively, as compared with values of 8.3, 9.4, and 11.7% for the revised model, respectively. The original model predicted body weight with an error of 19.7% vs. 5.7% for the revised model. Based on these observations, it was concluded that representing mammary synthetic capacity as a function of active cell numbers and revisions to endocrine control of cell activity was meritorious.

High school students' understanding and problem solving in population genetics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soderberg, Patti D.

This study is an investigation of student understanding of population genetics and how students developed, used and revised conceptual models to solve problems. The students in this study participated in three rounds of problem solving. The first round involved the use of a population genetics model to predict the number of carriers in a population. The second round required them to revise their model of simple dominance population genetics to make inferences about populations containing three phenotype variations. The third round of problem solving required the students to revise their model of population genetics to explain anomalous data where the proportions of males and females with a trait varied significantly. As the students solved problems, they were involved in basic scientific processes as they observed population phenomena, constructed explanatory models to explain the data they observed, and attempted to persuade their peers as to the adequacy of their models. In this study, the students produced new knowledge about the genetics of a trait in a population through the revision and use of explanatory population genetics models using reasoning that was similar to what scientists do. The students learned, used and revised a model of Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium to generate and test hypotheses about the genetics of phenotypes given only population data. Students were also interviewed prior to and following instruction. This study suggests that a commonly held intuitive belief about the predominance of a dominant variation in populations is resistant to change, despite instruction and interferes with a student's ability to understand Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium and microevolution.

Concept Selection and Developmental Effects in Bilingual Speech Production

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schwieter, John; Sunderman, Gretchen

2009-01-01

The present study investigates the locus of language selection in less and more proficient language learners, specifically testing differential predictions of La Heij's (2005) concept selection model (CSM) and Kroll and Stewart's (1994) revised hierarchical model (RHM). Less and more proficient English dominant learners of Spanish participated in…

Testing of the European Union exposure-response relationships and annoyance equivalents model for annoyance due to transportation noises: The need of revised exposure-response relationships and annoyance equivalents model.

PubMed

Gille, Laure-Anne; Marquis-Favre, Catherine; Morel, Julien

2016-09-01

An in situ survey was performed in 8 French cities in 2012 to study the annoyance due to combined transportation noises. As the European Commission recommends to use the exposure-response relationships suggested by Miedema and Oudshoorn [Environmental Health Perspective, 2001] to predict annoyance due to single transportation noise, these exposure-response relationships were tested using the annoyance due to each transportation noise measured during the French survey. These relationships only enabled a good prediction in terms of the percentages of people highly annoyed by road traffic noise. For the percentages of people annoyed and a little annoyed by road traffic noise, the quality of prediction is weak. For aircraft and railway noises, prediction of annoyance is not satisfactory either. As a consequence, the annoyance equivalents model of Miedema [The Journal of the Acoustical Society of America, 2004], based on these exposure-response relationships did not enable a good prediction of annoyance due to combined transportation noises. Local exposure-response relationships were derived, following the whole computation suggested by Miedema and Oudshoorn [Environmental Health Perspective, 2001]. They led to a better calculation of annoyance due to each transportation noise in the French cities. A new version of the annoyance equivalents model was proposed using these new exposure-response relationships. This model enabled a better prediction of the total annoyance due to the combined transportation noises. These results encourage therefore to improve the annoyance prediction for noise in isolation with local or revised exposure-response relationships, which will also contribute to improve annoyance modeling for combined noises. With this aim in mind, a methodology is proposed to consider noise sensitivity in exposure-response relationships and in the annoyance equivalents model. The results showed that taking into account such variable did not enable to enhance both exposure-response relationships and the annoyance equivalents model. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Shock induced polymorphic transition in quartz, carbon, and boron nitride

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tan, Hua; Ahrens, Thomas J.

1990-01-01

The model proposed by Ahrens (1988) to explain the mechanism of the polymorphism in silicates is revised, and the revised model is applied to the quartz/stishovite, graphite/diamond, and graphite-boron nitride (g-BN) phase transformations. In this model, a key assumption is that transformation to a high-density amorphous or possibly liquid phase which rapidly crystallized to the high-pressure phase is triggered by the high temperatures in the shear band and upon crossing the metastable extension of a melting curve. Good agreement between the calcualted results and published data is obtained. The present theory predicts the standard entropy for cubic BN to be 0.4-0.5 J/g K.

Modeling Statistics of Fish Patchiness and Predicting Associated Influence on Statistics of Acoustic Echoes

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-09-30

published 3-D multi-beam data. The Niwa and Anderson models were compared with 3-D multi-beam data collected by Paramo and Gerlotto. The data were...submitted, refereed] Bhatia, S., T.K. Stanton, J. Paramo , and F. Gerlotto (under revision), “Modeling statistics of fish school dimensions using 3-D

Modeling Statistics of Fish Patchiness and Predicting Associated Influence on Statistics of Acoustic Echoes

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-09-30

data. The Niwa and Anderson models were compared with 3-D multi-beam data collected by Paramo and Gerlotto. The data were consistent with the...Bhatia, S., T.K. Stanton, J. Paramo , and F. Gerlotto (under revision), “Modeling statistics of fish school dimensions using 3-D data from a

Conceptual Resources in Self-Developed Explanatory Models: The Importance of Integrating Conscious and Intuitive Knowledge

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cheng, Meng-Fei; Brown, David E.

2010-01-01

This study explores the spontaneous explanatory models children construct, critique, and revise in the context of tasks in which children need to predict, observe, and explain phenomena involving magnetism. It further investigates what conceptual resources students use, and in what ways they use them, to construct explanatory models, and the…

Testing Math or Testing Language? The Construct Validity of the KeyMath-Revised for Children With Intellectual Disability and Language Difficulties.

PubMed

Rhodes, Katherine T; Branum-Martin, Lee; Morris, Robin D; Romski, MaryAnn; Sevcik, Rose A

2015-11-01

Although it is often assumed that mathematics ability alone predicts mathematics test performance, linguistic demands may also predict achievement. This study examined the role of language in mathematics assessment performance for children with intellectual disability (ID) at less severe levels, on the KeyMath-Revised Inventory (KM-R) with a sample of 264 children, in grades 2-5. Using confirmatory factor analysis, the hypothesis that the KM-R would demonstrate discriminant validity with measures of language abilities in a two-factor model was compared to two plausible alternative models. Results indicated that KM-R did not have discriminant validity with measures of children's language abilities and was a multidimensional test of both mathematics and language abilities for this population of test users. Implications are considered for test development, interpretation, and intervention.

The attitude-behavior relationship in consumer conduct: the role of norms, past behavior, and self-identity.

PubMed

Smith, Joanne R; Terry, Deborah J; Manstead, Antony S R; Louis, Winnifred R; Kotterman, Diana; Wolfs, Jacqueline

2008-06-01

The authors used a revised planned behavior model in the consumer domain. The revised model incorporated separate measures of descriptive and injunctive/ prescriptive norms, self-identity, and past behavior in an effort to improve the predictive power of the theory of planned behavior (TPB; I. Ajzen, 1985) in relation to a self-reported consumer behavior: purchasing one's preferred soft drink. At Time 1, respondents (N = 112) completed self-report measures of (a) attitudes, (b) perceived behavioral control, (c) descriptive and injunctive/prescriptive norms, (d) self-identity, (e) past behavior, and (f) intentions. The authors assessed self-reported behavior 1 week later (Time 2). Attitudes, injunctive/prescriptive norms, descriptive norms, past behavior, and self-identity were all positively related to purchase intentions, and intentions were predictive of self-reported behavior at Time 2. These findings highlight the utility of the TPB in the consumer domain.

Evaluation and application of site-specific data to revise the first-order decay model for estimating landfill gas generation and emissions at Danish landfills.

PubMed

Mou, Zishen; Scheutz, Charlotte; Kjeldsen, Peter

2015-06-01

Methane (CH₄) generated from low-organic waste degradation at four Danish landfills was estimated by three first-order decay (FOD) landfill gas (LFG) generation models (LandGEM, IPCC, and Afvalzorg). Actual waste data from Danish landfills were applied to fit model (IPCC and Afvalzorg) required categories. In general, the single-phase model, LandGEM, significantly overestimated CH₄generation, because it applied too high default values for key parameters to handle low-organic waste scenarios. The key parameters were biochemical CH₄potential (BMP) and CH₄generation rate constant (k-value). In comparison to the IPCC model, the Afvalzorg model was more suitable for estimating CH₄generation at Danish landfills, because it defined more proper waste categories rather than traditional municipal solid waste (MSW) fractions. Moreover, the Afvalzorg model could better show the influence of not only the total disposed waste amount, but also various waste categories. By using laboratory-determined BMPs and k-values for shredder, sludge, mixed bulky waste, and street-cleaning waste, the Afvalzorg model was revised. The revised model estimated smaller cumulative CH₄generation results at the four Danish landfills (from the start of disposal until 2020 and until 2100). Through a CH₄mass balance approach, fugitive CH₄emissions from whole sites and a specific cell for shredder waste were aggregated based on the revised Afvalzorg model outcomes. Aggregated results were in good agreement with field measurements, indicating that the revised Afvalzorg model could provide practical and accurate estimation for Danish LFG emissions. This study is valuable for both researchers and engineers aiming to predict, control, and mitigate fugitive CH₄emissions from landfills receiving low-organic waste. Landfill operators use the first-order decay (FOD) models to estimate methane (CH₄) generation. A single-phase model (LandGEM) and a traditional model (IPCC) could result in overestimation when handling a low-organic waste scenario. Site-specific data were important and capable of calibrating key parameter values in FOD models. The comparison study of the revised Afvalzorg model outcomes and field measurements at four Danish landfills provided a guideline for revising the Pollutants Release and Transfer Registers (PRTR) model, as well as indicating noteworthy waste fractions that could emit CH₄at modern landfills.

Predicting ventriculoperitoneal shunt infection in children with hydrocephalus using artificial neural network.

PubMed

Habibi, Zohreh; Ertiaei, Abolhasan; Nikdad, Mohammad Sadegh; Mirmohseni, Atefeh Sadat; Afarideh, Mohsen; Heidari, Vahid; Saberi, Hooshang; Rezaei, Abdolreza Sheikh; Nejat, Farideh

2016-11-01

The relationships between shunt infection and predictive factors have not been previously investigated using Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model. The aim of this study was to develop an ANN model to predict shunt infection in a group of children with shunted hydrocephalus. Among more than 800 ventriculoperitoneal shunt procedures which had been performed between April 2000 and April 2011, 68 patients with shunt infection and 80 controls that fulfilled a set of meticulous inclusion/exclusion criteria were consecutively enrolled. Univariate analysis was performed for a long list of risk factors, and those with p value < 0.2 were used to create ANN and logistic regression (LR) models. Five variables including birth weight, age at the first shunting, shunt revision, prematurity, and myelomeningocele were significantly associated with shunt infection via univariate analysis, and two other variables (intraventricular hemorrhage and coincided infections) had a p value of less than 0.2. Using these seven input variables, ANN and LR models predicted shunt infection with an accuracy of 83.1 % (AUC; 91.98 %, 95 % CI) and 55.7 % (AUC; 76.5, 95 % CI), respectively. The contribution of the factors in the predictive performance of ANN in descending order was history of shunt revision, low birth weight (under 2000 g), history of prematurity, the age at the first shunt procedure, history of intraventricular hemorrhage, history of myelomeningocele, and coinfection. The findings show that artificial neural networks can predict shunt infection with a high level of accuracy in children with shunted hydrocephalus. Also, the contribution of different risk factors in the prediction of shunt infection can be determined using the trained network.

Predictive Validity of ICD-11 PTSD as Measured by the Impact of Event Scale-Revised: A 15-Year Prospective Study of Political Prisoners.

PubMed

Hyland, Philip; Brewin, Chris R; Maercker, Andreas

2017-04-01

The 11 th edition of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-11; World Health Organization, 2017) proposes a model of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) that includes 6 symptoms. This study assessed the ability of a classification-independent measure of posttraumatic stress symptoms, the Impact of Event Scale-Revised (Weiss & Marmar, 1996), to capture the ICD-11 model of PTSD. The current study also provided the first assessment of the predictive validity of ICD-11 PTSD. Former East German political prisoners were assessed in 1994 (N = 144) and in 2008-2009 (N = 88) on numerous psychological variables using self-report measures. Of the participants, 48.2% and 36.8% met probable diagnosis for ICD-11 PTSD at the first and second assessments, respectively. Confirmatory factor analysis supported the factorial validity of the 3-factor ICD-11 model of PTSD, as represented by items selected from the Impact of Event Scale-Revised. Hierarchical multiple regression analysis demonstrated that, controlling for sex, the symptom clusters of ICD-11 PTSD (reexperiencing, avoidance, and sense of threat) significantly contributed to the explanation of depression (R 2 = .17), quality of life (R 2 = .21), internalized anger (R 2 = .10), externalized anger (R 2 = .12), hatred of perpetrators (R 2 = .15), dysfunctional disclosure (R 2 = .27), and social acknowledgment as a victim (R 2 = .12) across the 15-year study period. Current findings add support for the factorial and predictive validity of ICD-11 PTSD within a unique cohort of political prisoners. Copyright © 2017 International Society for Traumatic Stress Studies.

Predicting the effectiveness of different mulching techniques to reduce post-fire runoff and erosion in Mediterranean pine stands - does cover matter?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vieira, Diana; Nunes, João; Prats, Sergio; Serpa, Dalila; Keizer, Jan

2016-04-01

Wildfires have become a recurrent threat for many forest ecosystems of the Mediterranean. The characteristics of the Mediterranean climate with its warm and dry summers and mild and wet winters make it prone to wildfire occurrence as well as to post-fire soil erosion. Furthermore, climate change and continuation of current land management practices and planning are generally expected to further increase this threat. The wide recognition of the effects of wildfires to enhance runoff and erosion has created a strong demand for model-based tools for predicting the post-fire hydrological and erosion response and, in particular, for predicting the effectiveness of post-fire forestry operations to mitigate these responses. Such a tool should allow to identify areas with elevated risks of soil erosion and to evaluate which measures should be applied and when to minimize these risks. A key element in evaluating these measures is also their costs, in order to optimize the use of the limited resources that are typically available for post-fire land management. In this study, two "treatments" are compared with control conditions (i.e. doing nothing) after a wildfire with a moderate soil burn severity: (i) 4 erosion plots were treated with hydro-mulch, (ii) 4 erosion plots were untreated but had a high pine needle cover quickly after the fire, due to needle cast from scorched pine crowns (often referred to as "natural mulching") (iii) 4 plots were untreated and had a very reduced protective litter cover . The main objective of this study was to asses if the revised MMF model could effectively predict the impacts of hydro-mulching and natural mulching with pine needle on runoff generation and the associated soil losses. If MMF could predict well the impact of natural mulching, it could be very useful in limiting the areas that should be considered for specific soil mitigation measures, especially in the case of wildfires that affect large areas with moderate severity. The revised MMF model allowed, in fact, accurate predictions of runoff and soil erosion over the first year following hydro-mulch application . The obtained efficiency indices (Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency) of 0.82 and 0.71 for runoff and erosion, respectively, suggested that the revised MMF model could be at the base of a tool to assist decision-making in post-fire forest management. Furthermore, the MMF results obtained for hydro-mulching agreed well with those obtained in a previous study in the region for mulching with forest residues (Vieira et al., 2014). Ongoing work is assessing the possible improvements in model predictions by applying MMF on a seasonal basis and/or taking into account the occurrence of soil water repellency, i.e. using the adjustments of MMF to post-fire conditions as proposed in Vieira et al. (2014) and so far only tested - successfully - for eucalypt plantations in the study region. Vieira DCS, Prats SA, Nunes JP, Shakesby RA, Coelho COA, Keizer JJ (2014) Modelling runoff and erosion, and their mitigation, in burned Portuguese forest using the revised Morgan-Morgan-Finney model. Forest Ecology and Management 314: 150-165

The 2000 revision of the joint UK/US geomagnetic field models and an IGRF 2000 candidate model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Macmillan, S.; Quinn, J.M.

2000-01-01

The method of derivation of the joint UK/US spherical harmonic geomagnetic main-field and secular-variation models is presented. Early versions of these models, with the main field truncated at degree 10, are the UK/US candidates for the IGRF 2000 model. The main-field model describes the Earth's magnetic field at the 2000.0 epoch, while the secular-variation model predicts the evolution of this field between 2000.0 and 2005.0. A revised 1995.0 main-field model was also generated. Regional models for the continental US, Alaska and Hawaii were also produced as a by-product of the UK/US global modelling effort. Copy right?? The Society of Geomagnetism and Earth, Planetary and Space Sciences (SGEPSS); The Seismological Society of Japan; The Volcanological Society of Japan; The Geodetic Society of Japan; The Japanese Society for Planetary Sciences.

Cognitive processes and conflict in close relationships: an attribution-efficacy model.

PubMed

Fincham, F D; Bradbury, T N

1987-12-01

A recently proposed model of cognitive processes underlying conflict in close relationships (Doherty, 1978, 1981a, 1981b) is revised and tested in two studies. Central to the original model are the causal attributions made for conflict and the perceived efficacy or ability to resolve conflict. The model is revised to incorporate judgments of responsibility and to provide a closer link to self-efficacy theory. The first study examines attributions and efficacy expectations in mother-child relationships. As anticipated, only weak evidence was obtained for predictions retained from the original model, high-lighting the relationship-specific nature of cognitive processes for conflict in families. A second study examines husband-wife relationships and provides evidence for the usefulness of an attribution-efficacy model for marital conflict. The attributional component of the model received greater support than that pertaining to efficacy expectations. In both studies, support was obtained for the proposal that the relation between conflict dimensions (e.g., blame) and causal dimensions is mediated by judgments of responsibility. The significance of the revisions to Doherty's model for understanding conflict in close relationships is discussed, and several avenues for further research are outlined.

Income Transfers and Assets of the Poor. Revised. Discussion Paper.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ziliak, James P.

Contrary to the predictions of the standard life-cycle model, many low lifetime-income households accumulate little wealth relative to their incomes compared to households with high lifetime income. This paper uses data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics and a correlated random-effects generalized model of moments estimator to decompose the…

Care 3 model overview and user's guide, first revision

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bavuso, S. J.; Petersen, P. L.

1985-01-01

A manual was written to introduce the CARE III (Computer-Aided Reliability Estimation) capability to reliability and design engineers who are interested in predicting the reliability of highly reliable fault-tolerant systems. It was also structured to serve as a quick-look reference manual for more experienced users. The guide covers CARE III modeling and reliability predictions for execution in the CDC CYber 170 series computers, DEC VAX-11/700 series computer, and most machines that compile ANSI Standard FORTRAN 77.

Erosion modeling and test of slip-cast fused silica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weiskopf, Francis B., Jr.; Lin, Jeffrey S.; Drobnick, Rudy A.; Feather, Brian K.

1990-10-01

This paper summarizes a test program to verify the Balageas erosion model for Slip Cast Fused Silica in a flight-like erosive environment. The test program is summarized with particular attention paid to documenting the erosive environment. The Balageas model was found to over predict the erosion for these tests and a revised model which gives reasonable agreement with the data is proposed.

Assessment of exploration bias in data-driven predictive models and the estimation of undiscovered resources

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coolbaugh, M.F.; Raines, G.L.; Zehner, R.E.

2007-01-01

The spatial distribution of discovered resources may not fully mimic the distribution of all such resources, discovered and undiscovered, because the process of discovery is biased by accessibility factors (e.g., outcrops, roads, and lakes) and by exploration criteria. In data-driven predictive models, the use of training sites (resource occurrences) biased by exploration criteria and accessibility does not necessarily translate to a biased predictive map. However, problems occur when evidence layers correlate with these same exploration factors. These biases then can produce a data-driven model that predicts known occurrences well, but poorly predicts undiscovered resources. Statistical assessment of correlation between evidence layers and map-based exploration factors is difficult because it is difficult to quantify the "degree of exploration." However, if such a degree-of-exploration map can be produced, the benefits can be enormous. Not only does it become possible to assess this correlation, but it becomes possible to predict undiscovered, instead of discovered, resources. Using geothermal systems in Nevada, USA, as an example, a degree-of-exploration model is created, which then is resolved into purely explored and unexplored equivalents, each occurring within coextensive study areas. A weights-of-evidence (WofE) model is built first without regard to the degree of exploration, and then a revised WofE model is calculated for the "explored fraction" only. Differences in the weights between the two models provide a correlation measure between the evidence and the degree of exploration. The data used to build the geothermal evidence layers are perceived to be independent of degree of exploration. Nevertheless, the evidence layers correlate with exploration because exploration has preferred the same favorable areas identified by the evidence patterns. In this circumstance, however, the weights for the "explored" WofE model minimize this bias. Using these revised weights, posterior probability is extrapolated into unexplored areas to estimate undiscovered deposits. ?? International Association for Mathematical Geology 2007.

Revised simulation model does not predict rebound in gonorrhoea prevalence where core groups are treated in the presence of antimicrobial resistance.

PubMed

Trecker, Molly A; Hogan, Daniel J; Waldner, Cheryl L; Dillon, Jo-Anne R; Osgood, Nathaniel D

2015-06-01

To determine the effects of using discrete versus continuous quantities of people in a compartmental model examining the contribution of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) to rebound in the prevalence of gonorrhoea. A previously published transmission model was reconfigured to represent the occurrence of gonorrhoea in discrete persons, rather than allowing fractions of infected individuals during simulations. In the revised model, prevalence only rebounded under scenarios reproduced from the original paper when AMR occurrence was increased by 10(5) times. In such situations, treatment of high-risk individuals yielded outcomes very similar to those resulting from treatment of low-risk and intermediate-risk individuals. Otherwise, in contrast with the original model, prevalence was the lowest when the high-risk group was treated, supporting the current policy of targeting treatment to high-risk groups. Simulation models can be highly sensitive to structural features. Small differences in structure and parameters can substantially influence predicted outcomes and policy prescriptions, and must be carefully considered. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

The organisation of critical care for burn patients in the UK: epidemiology and comparison of mortality prediction models.

PubMed

Toft-Petersen, A P; Ferrando-Vivas, P; Harrison, D A; Dunn, K; Rowan, K M

2018-05-15

In the UK, a network of specialist centres has been set up to provide critical care for burn patients. However, some burn patients are admitted to general intensive care units. Little is known about the casemix of these patients and how it compares with patients in specialist burn centres. It is not known whether burn-specific or generic risk prediction models perform better when applied to patients managed in intensive care units. We examined admissions for burns in the Case Mix Programme Database from April 2010 to March 2016. The casemix, activity and outcome in general and specialist burn intensive care units were compared and the fit of two burn-specific risk prediction models (revised Baux and Belgian Outcome in Burn Injury models) and one generic model (Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre model) were compared. Patients in burn intensive care units had more extensive injuries compared with patients in general intensive care units (median (IQR [range]) burn surface area 16 (7-32 [0-98])% vs. 8 (1-18 [0-100])%, respectively) but in-hospital mortality was similar (22.8% vs. 19.0%, respectively). The discrimination and calibration of the generic Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre model was superior to the revised Baux and Belgian Outcome in Burn Injury burn-specific models for patients managed on both specialist burn and general intensive care units. © 2018 The Association of Anaesthetists of Great Britain and Ireland.

Revised forecast: Another stormy summer ahead

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carlowicz, Michael

After predicting in November 1995 that the 1996 hurricane season would be less active than the typical year (Eos, December 12, 1995), William Gray and his colleagues from Colorado State University have revised their forecast. Plugging updated atmospheric data into their statistical model, the researchers are now predicting seven hurricanes—two of them intense (category 3, 4, or 5)—and 11 named storms for the summer and fall of 1996. Net tropical cyclone activity for the hurricane season, which lasts from June 1 to December 1, should be 105% of the 25-year average, according to Gray.In November, Gray and Chris Landsea of NOAA's Hurricane Research Division predicted eight tropical storms and five hurricanes (two intense), less than the historical averages of 9.3 named storms and 5.7 hurricanes per season. The change in expectations is the result of new accounting for trends in temperature and barometric pressure in Africa and around the Atlantic Basin.

From GenBank to GBIF: Phylogeny-Based Predictive Niche Modeling Tests Accuracy of Taxonomic Identifications in Large Occurrence Data Repositories

PubMed Central

Smith, B. Eugene; Johnston, Mark K.; Lücking, Robert

2016-01-01

Accuracy of taxonomic identifications is crucial to data quality in online repositories of species occurrence data, such as the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF), which have accumulated several hundred million records over the past 15 years. These data serve as basis for large scale analyses of macroecological and biogeographic patterns and to document environmental changes over time. However, taxonomic identifications are often unreliable, especially for non-vascular plants and fungi including lichens, which may lack critical revisions of voucher specimens. Due to the scale of the problem, restudy of millions of collections is unrealistic and other strategies are needed. Here we propose to use verified, georeferenced occurrence data of a given species to apply predictive niche modeling that can then be used to evaluate unverified occurrences of that species. Selecting the charismatic lichen fungus, Usnea longissima, as a case study, we used georeferenced occurrence records based on sequenced specimens to model its predicted niche. Our results suggest that the target species is largely restricted to a narrow range of boreal and temperate forest in the Northern Hemisphere and that occurrence records in GBIF from tropical regions and the Southern Hemisphere do not represent this taxon, a prediction tested by comparison with taxonomic revisions of Usnea for these regions. As a novel approach, we employed Principal Component Analysis on the environmental grid data used for predictive modeling to visualize potential ecogeographical barriers for the target species; we found that tropical regions conform a strong barrier, explaining why potential niches in the Southern Hemisphere were not colonized by Usnea longissima and instead by morphologically similar species. This approach is an example of how data from two of the most important biodiversity repositories, GenBank and GBIF, can be effectively combined to remotely address the problem of inaccuracy of taxonomic identifications in occurrence data repositories and to provide a filtering mechanism which can considerably reduce the number of voucher specimens that need critical revision, in this case from 4,672 to about 100. PMID:26967999

From GenBank to GBIF: Phylogeny-Based Predictive Niche Modeling Tests Accuracy of Taxonomic Identifications in Large Occurrence Data Repositories.

PubMed

Smith, B Eugene; Johnston, Mark K; Lücking, Robert

2016-01-01

Accuracy of taxonomic identifications is crucial to data quality in online repositories of species occurrence data, such as the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF), which have accumulated several hundred million records over the past 15 years. These data serve as basis for large scale analyses of macroecological and biogeographic patterns and to document environmental changes over time. However, taxonomic identifications are often unreliable, especially for non-vascular plants and fungi including lichens, which may lack critical revisions of voucher specimens. Due to the scale of the problem, restudy of millions of collections is unrealistic and other strategies are needed. Here we propose to use verified, georeferenced occurrence data of a given species to apply predictive niche modeling that can then be used to evaluate unverified occurrences of that species. Selecting the charismatic lichen fungus, Usnea longissima, as a case study, we used georeferenced occurrence records based on sequenced specimens to model its predicted niche. Our results suggest that the target species is largely restricted to a narrow range of boreal and temperate forest in the Northern Hemisphere and that occurrence records in GBIF from tropical regions and the Southern Hemisphere do not represent this taxon, a prediction tested by comparison with taxonomic revisions of Usnea for these regions. As a novel approach, we employed Principal Component Analysis on the environmental grid data used for predictive modeling to visualize potential ecogeographical barriers for the target species; we found that tropical regions conform a strong barrier, explaining why potential niches in the Southern Hemisphere were not colonized by Usnea longissima and instead by morphologically similar species. This approach is an example of how data from two of the most important biodiversity repositories, GenBank and GBIF, can be effectively combined to remotely address the problem of inaccuracy of taxonomic identifications in occurrence data repositories and to provide a filtering mechanism which can considerably reduce the number of voucher specimens that need critical revision, in this case from 4,672 to about 100.

Incorporating interspecific competition into species-distribution mapping by upward scaling of small-scale model projections to the landscape.

PubMed

Baah-Acheamfour, Mark; Bourque, Charles P-A; Meng, Fan-Rui; Swift, D Edwin

2017-01-01

There are a number of overarching questions and debate in the scientific community concerning the importance of biotic interactions in species distribution models at large spatial scales. In this paper, we present a framework for revising the potential distribution of tree species native to the Western Ecoregion of Nova Scotia, Canada, by integrating the long-term effects of interspecific competition into an existing abiotic-factor-based definition of potential species distribution (PSD). The PSD model is developed by combining spatially explicit data of individualistic species' response to normalized incident photosynthetically active radiation, soil water content, and growing degree days. A revised PSD model adds biomass output simulated over a 100-year timeframe with a robust forest gap model and scaled up to the landscape using a forestland classification technique. To demonstrate the method, we applied the calculation to the natural range of 16 target tree species as found in 1,240 provincial forest-inventory plots. The revised PSD model, with the long-term effects of interspecific competition accounted for, predicted that eastern hemlock (Tsuga canadensis), American beech (Fagus grandifolia), white birch (Betula papyrifera), red oak (Quercus rubra), sugar maple (Acer saccharum), and trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides) would experience a significant decline in their original distribution compared with balsam fir (Abies balsamea), black spruce (Picea mariana), red spruce (Picea rubens), red maple (Acer rubrum L.), and yellow birch (Betula alleghaniensis). True model accuracy improved from 64.2% with original PSD evaluations to 81.7% with revised PSD. Kappa statistics slightly increased from 0.26 (fair) to 0.41 (moderate) for original and revised PSDs, respectively.

Translation, adaptation, and validation of the Sunderland Scale and the Cubbin & Jackson Revised Scale in Portuguese

PubMed Central

Sousa, Bruno

2013-01-01

Objective To translate into Portuguese and evaluate the measuring properties of the Sunderland Scale and the Cubbin & Jackson Revised Scale, which are instruments for evaluating the risk of developing pressure ulcers during intensive care. Methods This study included the process of translation and adaptation of the scales to the Portuguese language, as well as the validation of these tools. To assess the reliability, Cronbach alpha values of 0.702 to 0.708 were identified for the Sunderland Scale and the Cubbin & Jackson Revised Scale, respectively. The validation criteria (predictive) were performed comparatively with the Braden Scale (gold standard), and the main measurements evaluated were sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and area under the curve, which were calculated based on cutoff points. Results The Sunderland Scale exhibited 60% sensitivity, 86.7% specificity, 47.4% positive predictive value, 91.5% negative predictive value, and 0.86 for the area under the curve. The Cubbin & Jackson Revised Scale exhibited 73.3% sensitivity, 86.7% specificity, 52.4% positive predictive value, 94.2% negative predictive value, and 0.91 for the area under the curve. The Braden scale exhibited 100% sensitivity, 5.3% specificity, 17.4% positive predictive value, 100% negative predictive value, and 0.72 for the area under the curve. Conclusions Both tools demonstrated reliability and validity for this sample. The Cubbin & Jackson Revised Scale yielded better predictive values for the development of pressure ulcers during intensive care. PMID:23917975

Hidden markov model for the prediction of transmembrane proteins using MATLAB.

PubMed

Chaturvedi, Navaneet; Shanker, Sudhanshu; Singh, Vinay Kumar; Sinha, Dhiraj; Pandey, Paras Nath

2011-01-01

Since membranous proteins play a key role in drug targeting therefore transmembrane proteins prediction is active and challenging area of biological sciences. Location based prediction of transmembrane proteins are significant for functional annotation of protein sequences. Hidden markov model based method was widely applied for transmembrane topology prediction. Here we have presented a revised and a better understanding model than an existing one for transmembrane protein prediction. Scripting on MATLAB was built and compiled for parameter estimation of model and applied this model on amino acid sequence to know the transmembrane and its adjacent locations. Estimated model of transmembrane topology was based on TMHMM model architecture. Only 7 super states are defined in the given dataset, which were converted to 96 states on the basis of their length in sequence. Accuracy of the prediction of model was observed about 74 %, is a good enough in the area of transmembrane topology prediction. Therefore we have concluded the hidden markov model plays crucial role in transmembrane helices prediction on MATLAB platform and it could also be useful for drug discovery strategy. The database is available for free at bioinfonavneet@gmail.comvinaysingh@bhu.ac.in.

Testing the efficacy of existing force-endurance models to account for the prevalence of obesity in the workforce.

PubMed

Pajoutan, Mojdeh; Cavuoto, Lora A; Mehta, Ranjana K

2017-10-01

This study evaluates whether the existing force-endurance relationship models are predictive of endurance time for overweight and obese individuals, and if not, provide revised models that can be applied for ergonomics practice. Data was collected from 141 participants (49 normal weight, 50 overweight, 42 obese) who each performed isometric endurance tasks of hand grip, shoulder flexion, and trunk extension at four levels of relative workload. Subject-specific fatigue rates and a general model of the force-endurance relationship were determined and compared to two fatigue models from the literature. There was a lack of fit between previous models and the current data for the grip (ICC = 0.8), with a shift toward lower endurance times for the new data. Application of the revised models can facilitate improved workplace design and job evaluation to accommodate the capacities of the current workforce.

Mortality in severe trauma patients attended by emergency services in Navarre, Spain: validation of a new prediction model and comparison with the Revised Injury Severity Classification Score II.

PubMed

Ali Ali, Bismil; Lefering, Rolf; Fortún Moral, Mariano; Belzunegui Otano, Tomás

2018-01-01

To validate the Mortality Prediction Model of Navarre (MPMN) to predict death after severe trauma and compare it to the Revised Injury Severity Classification Score II (RISCII). Retrospective analysis of a cohort of severe trauma patients (New Injury Severity Score >15) who were attended by emergency services in the Spanish autonomous community of Navarre between 2013 and 2015. The outcome variable was 30-day all-cause mortality. Risk was calculated with the MPMN and the RISCII. The performance of each model was assessed with the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and precision with respect to observed mortality. Calibration was assessed with the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. We included 516 patients. The mean (SD) age was 56 (23) years, and 363 (70%) were males. Ninety patients (17.4%) died within 30 days. The 30-day mortality rates predicted by the MPMN and RISCII were 16.4% and 15.4%, respectively. The areas under the ROC curves were 0.925 (95% CI, 0.902-0.952) for the MPMN and 0.941 (95% CI, 0.921-0.962) for the RISCII (P=0.269, DeLong test). Calibration statistics were 13.6 (P=.09) for the MPMN and 8.9 (P=.35) for the RISCII. Both the MPMN and the RISCII show good ability to discriminate risk and predict 30-day all-cause mortality in severe trauma patients.

A review of the revised Functional Capacity Index as a predictor of 12 month outcomes following injury.

PubMed

Palmer, Cameron S; Cameron, Peter A; Gabbe, Belinda J

2017-03-01

The measurement of functional outcomes following severe trauma has been widely recognised as a priority for countries with developed trauma systems. In this respect, the Functional Capacity Index (FCI), a multi-attribute index which has been incorporated into the most recent Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) dictionary, is potentially attractive as it offers 12-month functional outcome predictions for patients captured by existing AIS-coded datasets. This review paper outlines the development, construction and validation of the predictive form of the FCI (termed the pFCI), the modifications made which produced the currently available 'revised' pFCI, and the extent to which the revised pFCI has been validated and used. The original pFCI performed poorly in validation studies. The revised pFCI does not address many of the identified limitations of the original version, and despite the ready availability of a truncated version in the AIS dictionary, it has only been used in a handful of studies since its introduction several years ago. Additionally, there is little evidence for its validity. It is suggested that the pFCI should be better validated, whether in the narrow population group of young, healthy individuals for which it was developed, or in the wider population of severely injured patients. Methods for accounting for the presence of multiple injures (of which two have currently been used) should also be evaluated. Many factors other than anatomical injury are known to affect functional outcomes following trauma. However, it is intuitive that any model which attempts to predict the ongoing morbidity burden in a trauma population should consider the effects of the injuries sustained. Although the revised pFCI potentially offers a low-cost assessment of likely functional limitations resulting from anatomical injury, it must be more rigorously evaluated before more comprehensive predictive tools can be developed from it. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Space Radiation Cancer Risk Projections and Uncertainties - 2010

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cucinotta, Francis A.; Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Chappell, Lori J.

2011-01-01

Uncertainties in estimating health risks from galactic cosmic rays greatly limit space mission lengths and potential risk mitigation evaluations. NASA limits astronaut exposures to a 3% risk of exposure-induced death and protects against uncertainties using an assessment of 95% confidence intervals in the projection model. Revisions to this model for lifetime cancer risks from space radiation and new estimates of model uncertainties are described here. We review models of space environments and transport code predictions of organ exposures, and characterize uncertainties in these descriptions. We summarize recent analysis of low linear energy transfer radio-epidemiology data, including revision to Japanese A-bomb survivor dosimetry, longer follow-up of exposed cohorts, and reassessments of dose and dose-rate reduction effectiveness factors. We compare these projections and uncertainties with earlier estimates. Current understanding of radiation quality effects and recent data on factors of relative biological effectiveness and particle track structure are reviewed. Recent radiobiology experiment results provide new information on solid cancer and leukemia risks from heavy ions. We also consider deviations from the paradigm of linearity at low doses of heavy ions motivated by non-targeted effects models. New findings and knowledge are used to revise the NASA risk projection model for space radiation cancer risks.

Testing the effects of topography, geometry, and kinematics on modeled thermochronometer cooling ages in the eastern Bhutan Himalaya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gilmore, Michelle E.; McQuarrie, Nadine; Eizenhöfer, Paul R.; Ehlers, Todd A.

2018-05-01

In this study, reconstructions of a balanced geologic cross section in the Himalayan fold-thrust belt of eastern Bhutan are used in flexural-kinematic and thermokinematic models to understand the sensitivity of predicted cooling ages to changes in fault kinematics, geometry, topography, and radiogenic heat production. The kinematics for each scenario are created by sequentially deforming the cross section with ˜ 10 km deformation steps while applying flexural loading and erosional unloading at each step to develop a high-resolution evolution of deformation, erosion, and burial over time. By assigning ages to each increment of displacement, we create a suite of modeled scenarios that are input into a 2-D thermokinematic model to predict cooling ages. Comparison of model-predicted cooling ages to published thermochronometer data reveals that cooling ages are most sensitive to (1) the location and size of fault ramps, (2) the variable shortening rates between 68 and 6.4 mm yr-1, and (3) the timing and magnitude of out-of-sequence faulting. The predicted ages are less sensitive to (4) radiogenic heat production and (5) estimates of topographic evolution. We used the observed misfit of predicted to measured cooling ages to revise the cross section geometry and separate one large ramp previously proposed for the modern décollement into two smaller ramps. The revised geometry results in an improved fit to observed ages, particularly young AFT ages (2-6 Ma) located north of the Main Central Thrust. This study presents a successful approach for using thermochronometer data to test the viability of a proposed cross section geometry and kinematics and describes a viable approach to estimating the first-order topographic evolution of a compressional orogen.

Nuclear masses far from stability: the interplay of theory and experiment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Haustein, P.E.

1985-01-01

Mass models seek, by a variety of theoretical approaches, to reproduce the measured mass surface and to predict unmeasured masses beyond it. Subsequent measurements of these predicted nuclear masses permit an assessment of the quality of the mass predictions from the various models. Since the last comprehensive revision of the mass predictions (in the mid-to-late 1970's) over 300 new masses have been reported. Global analyses of these data have been performed by several numerical and graphical methods. These have identified both the strengths and weaknesses of the models. In some cases failures in individual models are distinctly apparent when themore » new mass data are plotted as functions of one or more selected physical parameters. Several examples will be given. Future theoretical efforts will also be discussed.« less

Predicting paclitaxel-induced neutropenia using the DMET platform.

PubMed

Nieuweboer, Annemieke J M; Smid, Marcel; de Graan, Anne-Joy M; Elbouazzaoui, Samira; de Bruijn, Peter; Martens, John W; Mathijssen, Ron H J; van Schaik, Ron H N

2015-01-01

The use of paclitaxel in cancer treatment is limited by paclitaxel-induced neutropenia. We investigated the ability of genetic variation in drug-metabolizing enzymes and transporters to predict hematological toxicity. Using a discovery and validation approach, we identified a pharmacogenetic predictive model for neutropenia. For this, a drug-metabolizing enzymes and transporters plus DNA chip was used, which contains 1936 SNPs in 225 metabolic enzyme and drug-transporter genes. Our 10-SNP model in 279 paclitaxel-dosed patients reached 43% sensitivity in the validation cohort. Analysis in 3-weekly treated patients only resulted in improved sensitivity of 79%, with a specificity of 33%. None of our models reached statistical significance. Our drug-metabolizing enzymes and transporters-based SNP-models are currently of limited value for predicting paclitaxel-induced neutropenia in clinical practice. Original submitted 9 March 2015; Revision submitted 20 May 2015.

Reconnaissance Report for Upper Mississippi River Navigation Study. (Revised)

DTIC Science & Technology

1992-09-01

Contaminants may include ammonia, arsenic, cadmium , chlordane, chromium, copper, dioxins, lead, nickel, nitrogen, PCBs, phosphorus, zinc, various...al 1981 Rock River, Upper Mississippi River, Little Wabash River, Lower Wabash River Units (I, III-north, aid VIII). In Predictive Models in Illinois

Entrance and exit region friction factor models for annular seal analysis. Ph.D. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Elrod, David Alan

1988-01-01

The Mach number definition and boundary conditions in Nelson's nominally-centered, annular gas seal analysis are revised. A method is described for determining the wall shear stress characteristics of an annular gas seal experimentally. Two friction factor models are developed for annular seal analysis; one model is based on flat-plate flow theory; the other uses empirical entrance and exit region friction factors. The friction factor predictions of the models are compared to experimental results. Each friction model is used in an annular gas seal analysis. The seal characteristics predicted by the two seal analyses are compared to experimental results and to the predictions of Nelson's analysis. The comparisons are for smooth-rotor seals with smooth and honeycomb stators. The comparisons show that the analysis which uses empirical entrance and exit region shear stress models predicts the static and stability characteristics of annular gas seals better than the other analyses. The analyses predict direct stiffness poorly.

Binaural signal detection - Equalization and cancellation theory.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Durlach, N. I.

1972-01-01

The improvement in masked-signal detection afforded by two ears (i.e., binaural unmasking) is explained on the basis of a descriptive model of the processing of binaural stimuli by a system consisting of two bandpass filters, an equalization and cancellation mechanism, and a decision device. The main ideas of the model are initially explained, and a general equation is derived for the purpose of making quantitative predictions. Comparisons are then made between various special cases of this equation and experimental data. Failures of the preliminary model in predicting the data are considered, and possible revisions are discussed.

Measuring chronic condition self-management in an Australian community: factor structure of the revised Partners in Health (PIH) scale.

PubMed

Smith, David; Harvey, Peter; Lawn, Sharon; Harris, Melanie; Battersby, Malcolm

2017-01-01

To evaluate the factor structure of the revised Partners in Health (PIH) scale for measuring chronic condition self-management in a representative sample from the Australian community. A series of consultations between clinical groups underpinned the revision of the PIH. The factors in the revised instrument were proposed to be: knowledge of illness and treatment, patient-health professional partnership, recognition and management of symptoms and coping with chronic illness. Participants (N = 904) reporting having a chronic illness completed the revised 12-item scale. Two a priori models, the 4-factor and bi-factor models were then evaluated using Bayesian confirmatory factor analysis (BCFA). Final model selection was established on model complexity, posterior predictive p values and deviance information criterion. Both 4-factor and bi-factor BCFA models with small informative priors for cross-loadings provided an acceptable fit with the data. The 4-factor model was shown to provide a better and more parsimonious fit with the observed data in terms of substantive theory. McDonald's omega coefficients indicated that the reliability of subscale raw scores was mostly in the acceptable range. The findings showed that the PIH scale is a relevant and structurally valid instrument for measuring chronic condition self-management in an Australian community. The PIH scale may help health professionals to introduce the concept of self-management to their patients and provide assessment of areas of self-management. A limitation is the narrow range of validated PIH measurement properties to date. Further research is needed to evaluate other important properties such as test-retest reliability, responsiveness over time and content validity.

75 FR 26653 - Approval and Promulgation of Air Quality Implementation Plans; Reformulated Gasoline and Diesel...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-05-12

...This final rule approves state implementation plan (SIP) revisions submitted by the State of California on June 15, 2004 and February 3, 2009, relating to reformulated gasoline (RFG) and diesel fuel sold or supplied as motor vehicle fuels in California. The revisions relating to RFG include California Phase 3 RFG (CaRFG3) regulations, correction of errors and streamlined requirements for compliance with and enforcement of the CaRFG3 standards, and an update to the State's predictive model to mitigate permeation emissions associated with the use of ethanol as a fuel additive. The revisions relating to diesel fuel include test methods for determining the aromatic hydrocarbon content in diesel fuel and reductions in the maximum allowable sulfur content for motor vehicle diesel fuel. The effect of today's action is to make these revisions federally enforceable as part of the California SIP.

Pulse Jet Mixing Tests With Noncohesive Solids

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Meyer, Perry A.; Bamberger, Judith A.; Enderlin, Carl W.

2012-02-17

This report summarizes results from pulse jet mixing (PJM) tests with noncohesive solids in Newtonian liquid. The tests were conducted during FY 2007 and 2008 to support the design of mixing systems for the Hanford Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP). Tests were conducted at three geometric scales using noncohesive simulants, and the test data were used to develop models predicting two measures of mixing performance for full-scale WTP vessels. The models predict the cloud height (the height to which solids will be lifted by the PJM action) and the critical suspension velocity (the minimum velocity needed to ensure allmore » solids are suspended off the floor, though not fully mixed). From the cloud height, the concentration of solids at the pump inlet can be estimated. The predicted critical suspension velocity for lifting all solids is not precisely the same as the mixing requirement for 'disturbing' a sufficient volume of solids, but the values will be similar and closely related. These predictive models were successfully benchmarked against larger scale tests and compared well with results from computational fluid dynamics simulations. The application of the models to assess mixing in WTP vessels is illustrated in examples for 13 distinct designs and selected operational conditions. The values selected for these examples are not final; thus, the estimates of performance should not be interpreted as final conclusions of design adequacy or inadequacy. However, this work does reveal that several vessels may require adjustments to design, operating features, or waste feed properties to ensure confidence in operation. The models described in this report will prove to be valuable engineering tools to evaluate options as designs are finalized for the WTP. Revision 1 refines data sets used for model development and summarizes models developed since the completion of Revision 0.« less

A revised Thai Multi-Dimensional Scale of Perceived Social Support.

PubMed

Wongpakaran, Nahathai; Wongpakaran, Tinakon

2012-11-01

In order to ensure the construct validity of the three-factor model of the Multi-dimensional Scale of Perceived Social Support (MSPSS), and based on the assumption that it helps users differentiate between sources of social support, in this study a revised version was created and tested. The aim was to compare the level of model fit of the original version of the MSPSS against the revised version--which contains a minor change from the original. The study was conducted on 486 medical students who completed the original and revised versions of the MSPSS, as well as the Rosenberg Self-Esteem Scale (Rosenberg, 1965) and Beck Depression Inventory II (Beck, Steer, & Brown, 1996). Confirmatory factor analysis was performed to compare the results, showing that the revised version of MSPSS demonstrated a good internal consistency--with a Cronbach's alpha of .92 for the MSPSS questionnaire, and a significant correlation with the other scales, as predicted. The revised version provided better internal consistency, increasing the Cronbach's alpha for the Significant Others sub-scale from 0.86 to 0.92. Confirmatory factor analysis revealed an acceptable model fit: chi2 128.11, df 51, p < .001; TLI 0.94; CFI 0.95; GFI 0.90; PNFI 0.71; AGFI 0.85; RMSEA 0.093 (0.073-0.113) and SRMR 0.042, which is better than the original version. The tendency of the new version was to display a better level of fit with a larger sample size. The limitations of the study are discussed, as well as recommendations for further study.

Impact of the revised International Prognostic Scoring System, cytogenetics and monosomal karyotype on outcome after allogeneic stem cell transplantation for myelodysplastic syndromes and secondary acute myeloid leukemia evolving from myelodysplastic syndromes: a retrospective multicenter study of the European Society of Blood and Marrow Transplantation

PubMed Central

Koenecke, Christian; Göhring, Gudrun; de Wreede, Liesbeth C.; van Biezen, Anja; Scheid, Christof; Volin, Liisa; Maertens, Johan; Finke, Jürgen; Schaap, Nicolaas; Robin, Marie; Passweg, Jakob; Cornelissen, Jan; Beelen, Dietrich; Heuser, Michael; de Witte, Theo; Kröger, Nicolaus

2015-01-01

The aim of this study was to determine the impact of the revised 5-group International Prognostic Scoring System cytogenetic classification on outcome after allogeneic stem cell transplantation in patients with myelodysplastic syndromes or secondary acute myeloid leukemia who were reported to the European Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation database. A total of 903 patients had sufficient cytogenetic information available at stem cell transplantation to be classified according to the 5-group classification. Poor and very poor risk according to this classification was an independent predictor of shorter relapse-free survival (hazard ratio 1.40 and 2.14), overall survival (hazard ratio 1.38 and 2.14), and significantly higher cumulative incidence of relapse (hazard ratio 1.64 and 2.76), compared to patients with very good, good or intermediate risk. When comparing the predictive performance of a series of Cox models both for relapse-free survival and for overall survival, a model with simplified 5-group cytogenetics (merging very good, good and intermediate cytogenetics) performed best. Furthermore, monosomal karyotype is an additional negative predictor for outcome within patients of the poor, but not the very poor risk group of the 5-group classification. The revised International Prognostic Scoring System cytogenetic classification allows patients with myelodysplastic syndromes to be separated into three groups with clearly different outcomes after stem cell transplantation. Poor and very poor risk cytogenetics were strong predictors of poor patient outcome. The new cytogenetic classification added value to prediction of patient outcome compared to prediction models using only traditional risk factors or the 3-group International Prognostic Scoring System cytogenetic classification. PMID:25552702

Probabilistic Forecasting of Coastal Morphodynamic Storm Response at Fire Island, New York

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, K.; Adams, P. N.; Hapke, C. J.; Lentz, E. E.; Brenner, O.

2013-12-01

Site-specific probabilistic models of shoreline change are useful because they are derived from direct observations so that local factors, which greatly influence coastal response, are inherently considered by the model. Fire Island, a 50-km barrier island off Long Island, New York, is periodically subject to large storms, whose waves and storm surge dramatically alter beach morphology. Nor'Ida, which impacted the Fire Island coast in 2009, was one of the larger storms to occur in the early 2000s. In this study, we improve upon a Bayesian Network (BN) model informed with historical data to predict shoreline change from Nor'Ida. We present two BN models, referred to as 'original' model (BNo) and 'revised' model (BNr), designed to predict the most probable magnitude of net shoreline movement (NSM), as measured at 934 cross-shore transects, spanning 46 km. Both are informed with observational data (wave impact hours, shoreline and dune toe change rates, pre-storm beach width, and measured NSM) organized within five nodes, but the revised model contains a sixth node to represent the distribution of material added during an April 2009 nourishment project. We evaluate model success by examining the percentage of transects on which the model chooses the correct (observed) bin value of NSM. Comparisons of observed to model-predicted NSM show BNr has slightly higher predictive success over the total study area and significantly higher success at nourished locations. The BNo, which neglects anthropogenic modification history, correctly predicted the most probable NSM in 66.6% of transects, with ambiguous prediction at 12.7% of the locations. BNr, which incorporates anthropogenic modification history, resulted in 69.4% predictive accuracy and 13.9% ambiguity. However, across nourished transects, BNr reported 72.9% predictive success, while BNo reported 61.5% success. Further, at nourished transects, BNr reported higher ambiguity of 23.5% compared to 9.9% in BNo. These results demonstrate that BNr recognizes that nourished transects may behave differently from the expectation derived from historical data and therefore is more 'cautious' in its predictions at these locations. In contrast, BNo is more confident, but less accurate, demonstrating the risk of ignoring the influences of anthropogenic modification in a probabilistic model. Over the entire study region, both models produced greatest predictive accuracy for low retreat observations (BNo: 77.6%; BNr: 76.0%) and least success at predicting low advance observations, although BNr shows considerable improvement over BNo (39.4% vs. 28.6%, respectively). BNr also was significantly more accurate at predicting observations of no shoreline change (BNo: 56.2%; BNr: 68.93%). Both models were accurate for 60% of high advance observations, and reported high predictive success for high retreat observations (BNo: 69.1%; BNr: 67.6%), the scenario of greatest concern to coastal managers.

Effect of graft choice on the outcome of revision anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction in the Multicenter ACL Revision Study (MARS) Cohort

PubMed Central

Wright, Rick W.; Huston, Laura J.; Haas, Amanda K.; Spindler, Kurt P.; Nwosu, Sam K.; Allen, Christina R.; Anderson, Allen F.; Cooper, Daniel E.; DeBerardino, Thomas M.; Dunn, Warren R.; Lantz, Brett (Brick) A.; Stuart, Michael J.; Garofoli, Elizabeth A.; Albright, John P.; Amendola, Annunziato (Ned); Andrish, Jack T.; Annunziata, Christopher C.; Arciero, Robert A.; Bach, Bernard R.; Baker, Champ L.; Bartolozzi, Arthur R.; Baumgarten, Keith M.; Bechler, Jeffery R.; Berg, Jeffrey H.; Bernas, Geoffrey A.; Brockmeier, Stephen F.; Brophy, Robert H.; Bush-Joseph, Charles A.; Butler, J. Brad; Campbell, John D.; Carey, James L.; Carpenter, James E.; Cole, Brian J.; Cooper, Jonathan M.; Cox, Charles L.; Creighton, R. Alexander; Dahm, Diane L.; David, Tal S.; Flanigan, David C.; Frederick, Robert W.; Ganley, Theodore J.; Gatt, Charles J.; Gecha, Steven R.; Giffin, James Robert; Hame, Sharon L.; Hannafin, Jo A.; Harner, Christopher D.; Harris, Norman Lindsay; Hechtman, Keith S.; Hershman, Elliott B.; Hoellrich, Rudolf G.; Hosea, Timothy M.; Johnson, David C.; Johnson, Timothy S.; Jones, Morgan H.; Kaeding, Christopher C.; Kamath, Ganesh V.; Klootwyk, Thomas E.; Levy, Bruce A.; Ma, C. Benjamin; Maiers, G. Peter; Marx, Robert G.; Matava, Matthew J.; Mathien, Gregory M.; McAllister, David R.; McCarty, Eric C.; McCormack, Robert G.; Miller, Bruce S.; Nissen, Carl W.; O'Neill, Daniel F.; Owens, Brett D.; Parker, Richard D.; Purnell, Mark L.; Ramappa, Arun J.; Rauh, Michael A.; Rettig, Arthur C.; Sekiya, Jon K.; Shea, Kevin G.; Sherman, Orrin H.; Slauterbeck, James R.; Smith, Matthew V.; Spang, Jeffrey T.; Svoboda, Steven J.; Taft, Timothy N.; Tenuta, Joachim J.; Tingstad, Edwin M.; Vidal, Armando F.; Viskontas, Darius G.; White, Richard A.; Williams, James S.; Wolcott, Michelle L.; Wolf, Brian R.; York, James J.

2015-01-01

Background Most surgeons believe that graft choice for ACL reconstruction is an important factor related to outcome. Although graft choice may be limited in the revision setting based on previously used grafts, it is still felt to be important. Hypothesis The purpose of this study was to determine if revision ACL graft choice predicts outcomes related to sports function, activity level, OA symptoms, graft re-rupture, and reoperation at two years following revision reconstruction. We hypothesized that autograft use would result in increased sports function, increased activity level, and decreased OA symptoms (as measured by validated patient reported outcome instruments). Additionally, we hypothesized that autograft use would result in decreased graft failure and reoperation rate 2 years following revision ACL reconstruction. Study Design Prospective cohort study; Level of evidence, 2. Methods Revision ACL reconstruction patients were identified and prospectively enrolled by 83 surgeons over 52 sites. Data collected included baseline demographics, surgical technique and pathology, and a series of validated patient reported outcome instruments (IKDC, KOOS, WOMAC, and Marx activity rating score). Patients were followed up at 2 years, and asked to complete the identical set of outcome instruments. Incidence of additional surgery and reoperation due to graft failure were also recorded. Multivariate regression models were used to determine the predictors (risk factors) of IKDC, KOOS, WOMAC, Marx scores, graft re-rupture, and reoperation rate at 2 years following revision surgery. Results 1205 patients were successfully enrolled with 697 (58%) males. Median age was 26. In 88% this was their first revision. 341 (28%) were undergoing revision by the surgeon that had performed the previous reconstruction. 583 (48%) underwent revision reconstruction utilizing an autograft, 590 (49%) allograft, and 32 (3%) both autograft and allograft. Median time since their last ACL reconstruction was 3.4 years. Questionnaire follow-up was obtained on 989 subjects (82%), while phone follow-up was obtained on 1112 subjects (92%). The IKDC, KOOS, and WOMAC scores (with the exception of the WOMAC stiffness subscale) all significantly improved at the two year follow-up time point (p<0.001). In contrast, the two year MARX activity scale demonstrated a significant decrease from the initial score at enrollment (p<0.001). Graft choice proved to be a significant predictor of 2 year IKDC scores (p=0.017). Specifically, the use of an autograft for revision reconstruction predicted improved score on the IKDC [p=0.045; Odds Ratio (OR) = 1.31; 95% confidence intervals (CI) = 1.01, 1.70]. The use of an autograft predicted an improved on the KOOS subscale Sports and Recreation (p=0.037; OR=1.33; 95% CI=1.02, 1.73). Use of an autograft also predicted improved scores on the KOOS subscale Quality of Life (QOL) (p=0.031; OR=1.33; 95% CI=1.03, 1.73). For the KOOS Symptoms and ADL subscales, graft choice did not predict outcome score. Graft choice also proved to be a significant predictor of 2 year Marx activity level scores (p=0.012). Graft re-rupture was reported in 37/1112 (3.3%) of patients by their two year follow-up: 24 allografts, 12 autografts, and 1 allograft + autograft. Use of an autograft for revision resulted in patients 2.78 times less likely to sustain a subsequent graft rupture than if an allograft was utilized (p=0.047; 95% CI=1.01, 7.69). Conclusions Improved sports function and patient reported outcome measures are obtained when an autograft is utilized. Additionally, use of an autograft shows a decreased risk in graft re-rupture at two years follow-up. No differences were noted in rerupture or patient reported outcomes between soft tissue and bone-patellar tendon-bone grafts. Surgeon education regarding the findings in this study can result in potentially improved revision ACL reconstruction results for our patients. PMID:25274353

Do choices of sport fisheries reflect angler preferences for site attributes?

Treesearch

Harris. Charles C.; B. L. Driver; Bergersen. E. P.

1985-01-01

A revised recreation choice model is proposed and partially tested using results of a 1980 survey of Colorado anglers. Results of discriminant analyses show modest and useful prediction from preference for trout fishery site attributes to choice of type of fishery used.

A Method for Estimating Zero-Flow Pressure and Intracranial Pressure

PubMed Central

Caren, Marzban; Paul, Raymond Illian; David, Morison; Anne, Moore; Michel, Kliot; Marek, Czosnyka; Pierre, Mourad

2012-01-01

Background It has been hypothesized that critical closing pressure of cerebral circulation, or zero-flow pressure (ZFP), can estimate intracranial pressure (ICP). One ZFP estimation method employs extrapolation of arterial blood pressure versus blood-flow velocity. The aim of this study is to improve ICP predictions. Methods Two revisions are considered: 1) The linear model employed for extrapolation is extended to a nonlinear equation, and 2) the parameters of the model are estimated by an alternative criterion (not least-squares). The method is applied to data on transcranial Doppler measurements of blood-flow velocity, arterial blood pressure, and ICP, from 104 patients suffering from closed traumatic brain injury, sampled across the United States and England. Results The revisions lead to qualitative (e.g., precluding negative ICP) and quantitative improvements in ICP prediction. In going from the original to the revised method, the ±2 standard deviation of error is reduced from 33 to 24 mm Hg; the root-mean-squared error (RMSE) is reduced from 11 to 8.2 mm Hg. The distribution of RMSE is tighter as well; for the revised method the 25th and 75th percentiles are 4.1 and 13.7 mm Hg, respectively, as compared to 5.1 and 18.8 mm Hg for the original method. Conclusions Proposed alterations to a procedure for estimating ZFP lead to more accurate and more precise estimates of ICP, thereby offering improved means of estimating it noninvasively. The quality of the estimates is inadequate for many applications, but further work is proposed which may lead to clinically useful results. PMID:22824923

Revised cloud processes to improve the mean and intraseasonal variability of Indian summer monsoon in climate forecast system: Part 1

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abhik, S.; Krishna, R. P. M.; Mahakur, M.; Ganai, Malay; Mukhopadhyay, P.; Dudhia, J.

2017-06-01

The National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System (CFS) is being used for operational monsoon prediction over the Indian region. Recent studies indicate that the moist convective process in CFS is one of the major sources of uncertainty in monsoon predictions. In this study, the existing simple cloud microphysics of CFS is replaced by the six-class Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) single moment (WSM6) microphysical scheme. Additionally, a revised convective parameterization is employed to improve the performance of the model in simulating the boreal summer mean climate and intraseasonal variability over the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) region. The revised version of the model (CFSCR) exhibits a potential to improve shortcomings in the seasonal mean precipitation distribution relative to the standard CFS (CTRL), especially over the ISM region. Consistently, notable improvements are also evident in other observed ISM characteristics. These improvements are found to be associated with a better simulation of spatial and vertical distributions of cloud hydrometeors in CFSCR. A reasonable representation of the subgrid-scale convective parameterization along with cloud hydrometeors helps to improve the convective and large-scale precipitation distribution in the model. As a consequence, the simulated low-frequency boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) exhibits realistic propagation and the observed northwest-southeast rainband is well reproduced in CFSCR. Additionally, both the high and low-frequency BSISOs are better captured in CFSCR. The improvement of low and high-frequency BSISOs in CFSCR is shown to be related to a realistic phase relationship of clouds.